foreignpolicy--2020-05-22--The Coronavirus Is Delaying Elections Worldwide

As a result , many countries have delayed or canceled elections and votes altogether for fear of harming public health , the electoral process , or for more blatantly political reasons .
According to research from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance , at least 56 countries have delayed national or regional elections due to the coronavirus pandemic .
Below are all the countries that have postponed votes , and the implications of that decision for some key countries around the world .
The United States is currently in the midst of its 2020 presidential election race .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nov. 3 , has not been rescheduled , numerous primaries in various states and territories have either been delayed or switched to vote-by-mail .
The switches are happening after a heated political battle in Wisconsin , where Democrats wanted to push back the April primary and local elections or switch to voting by mail entirely due to fears about forcing people into crowds to vote .
Republicans disagreed and ultimately got their way after an eleventh-hour court decision .
But when the votes were tallied , Democrats still won several important seats .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ states and two territories that have pushed back their Democratic primary .
Originally the state wanted to cancel the April 28 primary election entirely , since Sen. Bernie Sanders had already dropped out of the race in support of the lone remaining Democratic presidential candidate , former Vice President Joe Biden , but a federal judge ruled the election must still take place .
Now scheduled for June 23 , the election will decide the number of party delegates allocated to Sanders and Biden , potentially influencing the party ’ s platform heading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York State Board of Elections has appealed the court ’ s decision to reinstate the election .
The other states and territories that have postponed their elections due to the coronavirus are Alaska , Connecticut , Delaware , Georgia , Hawaii , Indiana , Kentucky , Louisiana , Maryland , New Jersey , Ohio , Pennsylvania , Rhode Island , West Virginia , Wyoming , Guam , and Puerto Rico .
The United States currently has the largest coronavirus outbreak in the world .
Chileans have been protesting in the streets for months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ constitution , but the coronavirus has put protesters ’ hopes on hold .
The referendum , scheduled this past November to be held on April 26 , was postponed by the Chilean government due to the coronavirus .
At the time , the country had the second-highest coronavirus case rate per capita in South America , though those numbers can be influenced by the relatively high number of cases per capita also performed in Chile .
The federal government has used the lockdown to begin taking down protest art in the main plaza @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often focused .
Today , that plaza is largely quiet .
Although some protesters wondered early on if the virus was a plant designed to thwart their efforts , today almost all seem to have followed the stay-at-home orders even as the central government has opted not to impose a national lockdown , El País reported .
Lockdowns continue in the Santiago metropolitan area as of May 15 , and a new date for the referendum has not been formally set .
Serbia has postponed its April 26 election to June 21..
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outbreak arrived there on March 6 , a number significantly higher than many of its Balkan neighbors .
Both major opposition parties have announced they will boycott the elections when they do occur , saying the control President Aleksandar Vucic ’ s right-wing Serbian Progressive Party has over most news outlets in the country prevents a free and fair election from taking place .
Vucic has argued he would give parties 50 days to present their platforms before the snap election , which he said is plenty of time for each party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Progressive Party maintains a strong majority in the country ’ s parliament , where it has been in power for eight years .
European Union members have tried and failed to convince members of the opposition parties to participate .
Meanwhile , Vucic has been quick to praise China , which sent the country a large shipment of medical aid days after the Serbian government announced a coronavirus lockdown .
In a speech after Serbia ’ s lockdown began , Vucic said , “ By now , you all understood that great international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
European solidarity does not exist.
” The local governments of Galicia and the Basque Country have pushed back their elections due to coronavirus concerns .
Spain has been stuck under one of the most tightly enforced lockdowns in Europe , and it has only slowly begun to reopen .
Though the two provinces have not been the worst-hit , the Basque Country and Galicia have the fifth and eighth most coronavirus cases in Spain , respectively .
The Basque regional elections were supposed to have taken place on April 5 but were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Urkullu , shortly after Spain announced its stay-at-home order .
Galician President Alberto Núñez Feijóo announced in February he would also hold a snap election on April 5 to coincide with the Basque elections , but he later postponed the election as well .
He has since been criticized by the other major political parties for saying he would set the election date for early July .
Feijóo made the decision after a meeting with the opposition ’ s leaders despite their concerns about public health , leading many to criticize him for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agenda , ” El Mundo reports .
The earliest date that election can be set is July 12 .
The Dominican Republic has pushed back its general elections from May 17 to July 5 after consultations with 22 political parties .
Previously , municipal elections took place across the country on March 15 .
During those elections , Carolina Mejía , a member of the opposition Modern Revolutionary Party , won the mayorship of Santo Domingo and became the city ’ s first female mayor in what was considered a key indicator ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had already encountered problems running elections with a new electronic voting system .
In February , elections were called off due to technical issues after people had been waiting in line for hours to vote .
Protests took place for over a week , culminating in a thousands-strong turnout in Santo Domingo on the Dominican Republic ’ s Independence Day , which featured speeches and performances .
The Organization of American States had previously been invited to stay and monitor elections as tensions ran high in the country .
At the beginning of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ al-Assad issued a decree postponing parliamentary elections for the second time , to July 19 .
The decree said only that the decision was part of the government ’ s “ preventive measures ” to combat the coronavirus .
Originally the elections were scheduled for April 13 before the government announced in March that they would be moved to May 20 .
The Syrian government imposed several measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus , including the shuttering of schools and the implementation of a curfew , but as the economy continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the beginning of May .
This will be the third parliamentary election since the start of the 2011 uprising and the beginning of the country ’ s civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions .
Even before the coronavirus made impact , Syria was already suffering from a destroyed infrastructure , a weak economy , and a devastated health care system .
The Russian government has delayed an April 22 constitutional referendum vote that would have allowed President Vladimir Putin to stay in power , as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to June 23 .
The decision affected about 94 electoral processes at the local and regional levels .
Some Russian media outlets have reported the constitutional referendum might get pushed back to the fall or as late as December , as state officials hope the economy will rebound by then .
The referendum would have ratified a constitutional amendment that allows Putin to serve an additional two six-year terms after his tenure expires in 2024 .
The nationwide referendum was the last step in the ratification process , having already been approved by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Constitutional Court .
As of early May , the government still plans to hold elections on Sept. 13 , when 18 regions will elect governors , 11 regions will choose deputies for their legislative assemblies , and four single-mandate districts will select deputies for the State Duma .
In early May , the Indonesian government postponed Sept. 23 elections in 270 regions until December .
In total , the decision affects the elections of nine governors , 37 mayors and 224 district chiefs .
According to the government regulation mandating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ again upon the approval of the government , House of Representatives , and General Elections Commission .
Indonesia ’ s Election Commission had previously delayed election preparations after organizers tested positive for the coronavirus .
The postponement took time to become official .
In late March , Indonesia ’ s House of Representatives Commission in charge of regional autonomy , the Ministry of Home Affairs , the General Elections Commission , the Elections Supervisory Agency , and the Election Organization Council agreed to postpone the elections .
However , there was a delay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ searched for a legal mechanism to justify the postponement .
According to the country ’ s Regional Election Law , district and local bodies hold a complete monopoly over their elections .
In April , a senior official said a government regulation in lieu of law was the best way to circumvent the issue , according to the Jakarta Globe .
All election activity has been postponed until June .
The election commission has 15 preliminary stages to prepare for an election .
As of mid-April , five had been completed .
After @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election on April 25 , Sri Lanka ’ s Election Commission postponed the polls until June 20 .
In a bid to gain legislative control , Sri Lanka ’ s president , Gotabaya Rajapaksa , dissolved the country ’ s parliament in March .
With the new election date , major opposition parties in the parliament called on the president to reconvene the party in an order to avoid a constitutional crisis—the country ’ s constitution mandates the parliament be summoned no later than three months after a dissolution has been proclaimed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposition parties petitioned the Supreme Court to review the change in election date and argued that the elections should not be held during the pandemic as the virus would restrict campaigning .
Sri Lanka has had a run of constitutional crises in recent years .
In 2018 , then-President Maithripala Sirisena dissolved parliament and appointed the current president ’ s brother Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister .
Gotabaya Rajapaksa is also hoping to gain enough support in parliament after these elections to implement electoral reforms that would replace the country ’ s proportional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parties to gain seats in the House .
At the end of March , Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed postponed a parliamentary election scheduled for Aug. 29 .
A new election date has yet to be announced , which has thrown the country into political turmoil , as some opposition parties accuse Abiy of using the coronavirus to stay in power beyond his constitutional mandate , which expires at the end of September .
Other opposition parties have agreed to work with the president to form an interim government after their own mandate ends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postpone has also put the federal government in conflict with a regional government .
The northernmost Tigray region has announced that it will go ahead with the original election date without cooperating with Ethiopia ’ s National Elections Board , which has claimed sole authority to conduct any type of election .
This decision was made by the political party the Tigrayan People ’ s Liberation Front , which , with its former partners in the Ethiopian People ’ s Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition , had ruled the country before Abiy took power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parliament has set up a constitutional inquiry council to look into whether Tigray has violated the constitution .
Poland ’ s presidential election took place on May 10 with zero percent turnout , in what is being deemed a “ ghost election.
” Despite the National Electoral Commission stating that “ there was no possibility of voting for candidates , ” the election was never canceled .
However , polling stations were closed .
The failure to cancel was in part the result of political infighting over President Andrzej Duda ’ s Law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have an all-postal vote and a disagreement over when a new election date should be scheduled .
The party also refused calls to declare a state of emergency or a state of natural disaster , which would have postponed the elections , claiming that the coronavirus was not serious enough to warrant it .
Until a few days before the election , it was still unclear by what method voters would be submitting their ballots and whether the vote would proceed at all .
According to a resolution by the election commission , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new date for presidential elections .
Elections must then take place within 60 days of when the new date is announced .
Duda , whose term expires on Aug. 6 , is running for reelection with the support of the nationalist Law and Justice party .

The coronavirus has affected daily life around the world, leaving no country untouched. In some places, the virus has created a profound political crisis, while elsewhere citizens have been heartened by their government’s even-handed and scientifically informed response. But until there’s a vaccine, many politicians are worried about forcing people out in large crowds for any reason, creating a challenge for those countries that need to hold elections. While voting by mail has worked well in some countries, others, such as Poland, are finding how difficult it is to secure a free and fair election when ballots are delivered in a socially distant manner.
As a result, many countries have delayed or canceled elections and votes altogether for fear of harming public health, the electoral process, or for more blatantly political reasons. According to research from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, at least 56 countries have delayed national or regional elections due to the coronavirus pandemic. Below are all the countries that have postponed votes, and the implications of that decision for some key countries around the world.

In full hazmat gear, elections chief inspector Mary Magdalen Moser runs a polling location in Kenosha, Wisconsin, for the presidential primary April 7.
United States
The United States is currently in the midst of its 2020 presidential election race. Though the day of that vote, Nov. 3, has not been rescheduled, numerous primaries in various states and territories have either been delayed or switched to vote-by-mail. The switches are happening after a heated political battle in Wisconsin, where Democrats wanted to push back the April primary and local elections or switch to voting by mail entirely due to fears about forcing people into crowds to vote. Republicans disagreed and ultimately got their way after an eleventh-hour court decision. But when the votes were tallied, Democrats still won several important seats.
New York is one of the 16 states and two territories that have pushed back their Democratic primary. Originally the state wanted to cancel the April 28 primary election entirely, since Sen. Bernie Sanders had already dropped out of the race in support of the lone remaining Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, but a federal judge ruled the election must still take place. Now scheduled for June 23, the election will decide the number of party delegates allocated to Sanders and Biden, potentially influencing the party’s platform heading into the general election. The New York State Board of Elections has appealed the court’s decision to reinstate the election.
The other states and territories that have postponed their elections due to the coronavirus are Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Wyoming, Guam, and Puerto Rico. The United States currently has the largest coronavirus outbreak in the world.
A woman bangs a pot during a protest against Chilean President Sebastian Pinera’s government in Santiago on April 26, the day a constitutional referendum was scheduled to take place but was postponed because of the coronavirus.
Chile
Chileans have been protesting in the streets for months to earn a referendum on a new constitution, but the coronavirus has put protesters’ hopes on hold. The referendum, scheduled this past November to be held on April 26, was postponed to Oct. 25 by the Chilean government due to the coronavirus. At the time, the country had the second-highest rate of coronavirus cases per capita in South America, though those numbers may have been influenced by the relatively high number of coronavirus tests performed per capita in Chile.
The federal government has used the lockdown to begin taking down protest art in the main plaza of Santiago, where the protests were often focused. Today, that plaza is largely quiet. Although some protesters wondered early on if the virus was a plant designed to thwart their efforts, today almost all seem to have followed the stay-at-home orders even as the central government has opted not to impose a national lockdown, El País reported earlier this month . Lockdowns continue in the Santiago metropolitan area as of May 15, and a new date for the referendum has not been formally set.
Bosko Obradovic (center with whistle), leader of Serbia’s Dveri political movement, and other opposition supporters protest against Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic—who is accused of authoritarianism—in front of the presidential palace in Belgrade on May 7.
Serbia
Serbia has postponed its April 26 election to June 21.. The country has confirmed over 10,000 cases since the outbreak arrived there on March 6, a number significantly higher than many of its Balkan neighbors.
Both major opposition parties have announced they will boycott the elections when they do occur, saying the control President Aleksandar Vucic’s right-wing Serbian Progressive Party has over most news outlets in the country prevents a free and fair election from taking place. Vucic has argued he would give parties 50 days to present their platforms before the snap election, which he said is plenty of time for each party to make their case. The Serbian Progressive Party maintains a strong majority in the country’s parliament, where it has been in power for eight years.
European Union members have tried and failed to convince members of the opposition parties to participate. Meanwhile, Vucic has been quick to praise China, which sent the country a large shipment of medical aid days after the Serbian government announced a coronavirus lockdown. In a speech after Serbia’s lockdown began, Vucic said, “By now, you all understood that great international solidarity, actually, does not exist. European solidarity does not exist.”
A man and woman travel along an esplanade in La Concha Beach in San Sebastian, Basque Country, on May 2. Spain had been under one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe and was slowly beginning to reopen.
Spain
The local governments of Galicia and the Basque Country have pushed back their elections due to coronavirus concerns. Spain has been stuck under one of the most tightly enforced lockdowns in Europe, and it has only slowly begun to reopen. Though the two provinces have not been the worst-hit, the Basque Country and Galicia have the fifth and eighth most coronavirus cases in Spain, respectively.
The Basque regional elections were supposed to have taken place on April 5 but were postponed by the regional president, Íñigo Urkullu, shortly after Spain announced its stay-at-home order.
Galician President Alberto Núñez Feijóo announced in February he would also hold a snap election on April 5 to coincide with the Basque elections, but he later postponed the election as well. He has since been criticized by the other major political parties for saying he would set the election date for early July. Feijóo made the decision after a meeting with the opposition’s leaders despite their concerns about public health, leading many to criticize him for behaving unilaterally and with “a hidden agenda,” El Mundo reports. The earliest date that election can be set is July 12.
A man takes part in a protest for the suspension of municipal elections in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on Feb. 27.
Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic has pushed back its general elections from May 17 to July 5 after consultations with 22 political parties. Previously, municipal elections took place across the country on March 15. During those elections, Carolina Mejía, a member of the opposition Modern Revolutionary Party, won the mayorship of Santo Domingo and became the city’s first female mayor in what was considered a key indicator ahead of the national elections.
The country had already encountered problems running elections with a new electronic voting system. In February, elections were called off due to technical issues after people had been waiting in line for hours to vote. Protests took place for over a week, culminating in a thousands-strong turnout in Santo Domingo on the Dominican Republic’s Independence Day, which featured speeches and performances. The Organization of American States had previously been invited to stay and monitor elections as tensions ran high in the country.
A Syrian man carries groceries as he walks past billboards of President Bashar al-Assad in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli on March 24.
Syria
At the beginning of May, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad issued a decree postponing parliamentary elections for the second time, to July 19. The decree said only that the decision was part of the government’s “preventive measures” to combat the coronavirus. Originally the elections were scheduled for April 13 before the government announced in March that they would be moved to May 20. The Syrian government imposed several measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, including the shuttering of schools and the implementation of a curfew, but as the economy continued to suffer, it began lifting restrictions at the beginning of May.
This will be the third parliamentary election since the start of the 2011 uprising and the beginning of the country’s civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. Even before the coronavirus made impact, Syria was already suffering from a destroyed infrastructure, a weak economy, and a devastated health care system.
A woman walks past a constitutional referendum billboard reading “Let’s protect the memory of our ancestors” in Moscow on April 17. A constitutional referendum that would enable President Vladimir Putin to extend his time in office was set to be held April 22 but was postponed in light of the coronavirus.
Russia
The Russian government has delayed an April 22 constitutional referendum vote that would have allowed President Vladimir Putin to stay in power, as well as all elections initially scheduled from April 5 to June 23. The decision affected about 94 electoral processes at the local and regional levels.
Some Russian media outlets have reported the constitutional referendum might get pushed back to the fall or as late as December, as state officials hope the economy will rebound by then. The referendum would have ratified a constitutional amendment that allows Putin to serve an additional two six-year terms after his tenure expires in 2024. The nationwide referendum was the last step in the ratification process, having already been approved by the lower house of parliament and Russia’s Constitutional Court. As of early May, the government still plans to hold elections on Sept. 13, when 18 regions will elect governors, 11 regions will choose deputies for their legislative assemblies, and four single-mandate districts will select deputies for the State Duma.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo talks to residents while distributing aid to those affected by the coronavirus in Jakarta on May 18.
Indonesia
In early May, the Indonesian government postponed Sept. 23 elections in 270 regions until December. In total, the decision affects the elections of nine governors, 37 mayors and 224 district chiefs. According to the government regulation mandating the postponement, the elections could be postponed again upon the approval of the government, House of Representatives, and General Elections Commission. Indonesia’s Election Commission had previously delayed election preparations after organizers tested positive for the coronavirus.
The postponement took time to become official. In late March, Indonesia’s House of Representatives Commission in charge of regional autonomy, the Ministry of Home Affairs, the General Elections Commission, the Elections Supervisory Agency, and the Election Organization Council agreed to postpone the elections. However, there was a delay in announcing the postponement as the groups searched for a legal mechanism to justify the postponement. According to the country’s Regional Election Law, district and local bodies hold a complete monopoly over their elections. In April, a senior official said a government regulation in lieu of law was the best way to circumvent the issue, according to the Jakarta Globe.
All election activity has been postponed until June. The election commission has 15 preliminary stages to prepare for an election. As of mid-April, five had been completed.
A man reads a newspaper with a headline on Sri Lanka’s dissolution of parliament in Colombo on March 3.
Sri Lanka
After the president called for a snap parliamentary election on April 25, Sri Lanka’s Election Commission postponed the polls until June 20. In a bid to gain legislative control, Sri Lanka’s president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, dissolved the country’s parliament in March. With the new election date, major opposition parties in the parliament called on the president to reconvene the party in an order to avoid a constitutional crisis—the country’s constitution mandates the parliament be summoned no later than three months after a dissolution has been proclaimed. When the president refused, four major opposition parties petitioned the Supreme Court to review the change in election date and argued that the elections should not be held during the pandemic as the virus would restrict campaigning.
Sri Lanka has had a run of constitutional crises in recent years. In 2018, then-President Maithripala Sirisena dissolved parliament and appointed the current president’s brother Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister. Gotabaya Rajapaksa is also hoping to gain enough support in parliament after these elections to implement electoral reforms that would replace the country’s proportional representation electoral system, which allows minority parties to gain seats in the House.
Orthodox Christians pray on the street in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on April 5 after police officers blocked their way into the Medhane Alem Cathedral in an effort to stem large gatherings.
Ethiopia
At the end of March, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed postponed a parliamentary election scheduled for Aug. 29. A new election date has yet to be announced, which has thrown the country into political turmoil, as some opposition parties accuse Abiy of using the coronavirus to stay in power beyond his constitutional mandate, which expires at the end of September. Other opposition parties have agreed to work with the president to form an interim government after their own mandate ends in early October.
The decision to postpone has also put the federal government in conflict with a regional government. The northernmost Tigray region has announced that it will go ahead with the original election date without cooperating with Ethiopia’s National Elections Board, which has claimed sole authority to conduct any type of election. This decision was made by the political party the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which, with its former partners in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition, had ruled the country before Abiy took power in 2018. In response, the parliament has set up a constitutional inquiry council to look into whether Tigray has violated the constitution.
A woman waves a copy of Poland’s Constitution as she takes part in an anti-government social distance protest in Warsaw during the country’s Constitution Day anniversary May 3.
Poland
Poland’s presidential election took place on May 10 with zero percent turnout, in what is being deemed a “ghost election.” Despite the National Electoral Commission stating that “there was no possibility of voting for candidates,” the election was never canceled. However, polling stations were closed.
The failure to cancel was in part the result of political infighting over President Andrzej Duda’s Law and Justice party’s proposal to have an all-postal vote and a disagreement over when a new election date should be scheduled. The party also refused calls to declare a state of emergency or a state of natural disaster, which would have postponed the elections, claiming that the coronavirus was not serious enough to warrant it. Until a few days before the election, it was still unclear by what method voters would be submitting their ballots and whether the vote would proceed at all. According to a resolution by the election commission, parliament now has 14 days to set a new date for presidential elections. Elections must then take place within 60 days of when the new date is announced.
Duda, whose term expires on Aug. 6, is running for reelection with the support of the nationalist Law and Justice party.
Correction, May 27, 2020: Elections in the Gabonese department of Lékoni-Lékori have been postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. A previous version of this article misstated the country where Lékoni-Lékori department is located.
Correction, May 25, 2020: A constitutional referendum in Chile has been rescheduled for Oct. 25 due to the coronavirus pandemic. A previous version of this article misstated the status of the postponed vote.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-22--Beijing Has Lit Hong Kong’s Funeral Pyre

In 2015 , five filmmakers set out to make a dystopian speculative film about the future of Hong Kong .
Produced on a shoestring budget by a largely volunteer crew , it envisioned a nightmarish decade for the city , culminating in a Hong Kong in which the police begin inflicting grotesque violence against dissenters , young children are indoctrinated in Chinese Communist Party ideology , and people are forced to learn Mandarin to have any prospect of good employment .
They called it Ten Years .
Less than five years later , the film ’ s prescience is horrifying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worst vision for the city has become a terrifying reality .
A police force still running on colonial hardware has run riot for a year , inflicting horrific violence against protesters with impunity—backed to the hilt by the authorities .
Mass targeted arrests of high-profile pro-democracy activists and politicians on spurious charges have also been initiated , and on Thursday , in an act many view as the final nail in Hong Kong ’ s coffin , the dreaded Article 23 , a mothballed provision in Hong Kong ’ s constitution providing for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in all but name .
While the official announcement has only proposed “ legal and enforcement mechanisms in Hong Kong for defending national security ” as one item among nine on the agenda for the National People ’ s Congress ( NPC ) to discuss in Beijing over the next week , the NPC ’ s role as China ’ s rubber-stamp parliament means the decision is all but final .
Although the details have not yet been published , it is likely that the legislation ’ s language will be deliberately ambiguous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the laws to shift and harden over time .
That ’ s in keeping with the mainland ’ s own intentionally vague and ever-shifting legal code , in which the only real authority is the Communist Party ’ s desire .
The power of final interpretation on constitutional affairs lies not in any court in Hong Kong , or in any court at all , but in the NPC ’ s Standing Committee in Beijing , an explicitly political body completely subservient to the party elite .
Within Article 23 itself , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treason ” are left undefined , except to state that they refer to them being undertaken against the Central People ’ s Government .
The timing of the announcement is not coincidental .
Beijing has sought to weaponize the pandemic to achieve its geopolitical and strategic objectives in the international arena—and in Hong Kong .
A gathering ban on more than eight people meeting currently applies in the city due to the coronavirus pandemic , rendering any immediate large-scale protests in response to the announcement de facto illegal .
This , combined with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attend protests amid the risks of coronavirus transmission , means Beijing has made the most of a grim opportunity .
However , the fury the proposed legislation has sparked among pro-democracy activists will not diminish , and large-scale protests will eventually resume .
Beijing ’ s announcement is long-anticipated and comes after months of intense speculation that such a move was around the corner .
It ’ s a move that confirms the very worst fears of many pro-democracy supporters in the city , and it will not be forgotten as Hong Kong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be a summer of unprecedented defiance .
The tactics of front-line protesters , which already escalated in the autumn as pitched battles were fought on university campuses , will likely become both more violent and more sophisticated , even as the government attempts to characterize all resistance as terrorism .
But such tactics could yet make Hong Kong genuinely ungovernable , throwing every assumption out of the window .
Given the fury the announcement has sparked , chaos is a distinct possibility .
Yet while implementing draconian national security laws is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a time to do it , it is now .
The gathering ban means any mass escalation by the pro-democracy camp , even despite the extremely low number of coronavirus cases in Hong Kong , is rendered extraordinarily difficult in the short term .
The annual Tiananmen Square massacre anniversary vigil , which would present an opportunity for a mass peaceful show of defiance , also can not go ahead .
The details , let alone the wording , of the proposed legislation are yet to be revealed .
However , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the bills will mimic Article 23 and be passed at the national level , then implemented in Hong Kong through Annex III of the Basic Law―to all intents and purposes bypassing the Legislative Council , requiring only a simple majority to pass an ordinance in order for it to be implemented .
The pro-Beijing camp holds well over half the Legislative Council seats , as 35 out of the 70 total members are unelected , so this would be a straightforward process .
As with Article 23 , it is likely that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deliberately vague so as to provide for the judicial interpretation to shift over time as the authorities desire .
Whole new laws could also be added as Beijing pleases , and if pro-democracy activists managed to break through the barriers put up against them electorally and won an unlikely majority in the Legislative Council elections this year , it could simply be bypassed by way of “ promulgation ” —a process by which Chinese laws can be implemented verbatim without legislative debate—or by the disqualification of pro-democracy members to ensure the legislation ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has implementation covered left , right and center .
Now that the decision has been made , it will happen .
The legislation also threatens to throw the Legislative Council elections scheduled for September into chaos .
Recent court rulings , including one delivered on Thursday , have largely thrown out Beijing ’ s past disqualifications of elected legislators .
The district council elections last November in which the pro-democracy camp secured a landslide victory also only saw one candidate , high-profile activist Joshua Wong , barred from standing .
The announcement is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates are very much back in the cards , dashing hopes of a broadly free and fair election .
All eyes are now on the response from the international community .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has ramped up his long-standing anti-China rhetoric in recent weeks , taking a leading role in calls for an international investigation into China ’ s handling of the coronavirus outbreak .
U.S. President Donald Trump also remarked briefly after the news broke that the United States would respond “ very strongly ” if Beijing pushes forward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There is one clear avenue open to the administration if they wish the U.S. response to be more than just harsh words , which would be to push to remove the special status afforded to Hong Kong in its annual review of the territory ’ s autonomous status , which is mandated by the Hong Kong Policy Act and the recently passed Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act .
Further actions could include Magnitsky Act sanctions being imposed against Hong Kong and Chinese government officials judged to be responsible for or complicit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hong Kong ’ s special status means it is treated separately to mainland China in trade and commerce―so long as it remains “ sufficiently autonomous ” over its affairs .
It has resulted in more than $ 43 billion in annual trade between the U.S. and Hong Kong , which would be severely threatened if the U.S. were to announce its withdrawal .
Pompeo issued a stark warning to China as reports broke of the proposed legislation , stating that the United States ’ decision on whether to continue to grant Hong Kong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beijing ’ s announcement will serve as an acid test to examine if words will be followed with action .
Meanwhile in London , Beijing ’ s announcement was met with a mealy-mouthed response from the U.K. ’ s Foreign Office , saying only that the British government is “ monitoring the situation closely.
” As Britain continues to battle a coronavirus outbreak that has claimed the most deaths of any country in Europe , Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be watched closely in the coming days to see if he takes decisive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former colonial control over Hong Kong and the legal ( not to mention moral ) obligations which flow from that , the real game-changing move the British government could make would be to offer all “ British national ( overseas ) ” ( BN ( O ) ) citizens in Hong Kong full residency rights in the U.K. , or extend the eligibility criteria for BN ( O ) citizenship to include all those born in Hong Kong after the handover to China in 1997 .
BN ( O ) status—a form of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the right to live or work in the U.K.—has long been the subject of controversy .
The mood among many in the ruling Conservative Party has shifted sharply from the talk of a “ golden era ” of Sino-British relations just five years ago , and extending the rights and eligibility of BN ( O ) citizenship is supported by many high-profile Conservative politicians .
The opposition Labour Party would also likely support such an action , having recently also undergone a similar change in approach to China .
But on the ground @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while very welcome , would ultimately do little to change the situation .
I spoke earlier with a friend who was recently elected as a district councilor in the pro-democracy camp ’ s landslide election victory last November .
At the end of a long discussion , his final comment was : “ The thing is , there are far too many people who love Hong Kong far too much for us to take this lying down.
” While this may be so , the reality is that as protesters chant , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have to do so by themselves .
It is difficult not to think that in this matchup between a superpower and a young , decentralized but undeniably heroic activist base , the protesters have brought a knife to a gun fight .

In 2015, five filmmakers set out to make a dystopian speculative film about the future of Hong Kong.
Produced on a shoestring budget by a largely volunteer crew, it envisioned a nightmarish decade for the city, culminating in a Hong Kong in which the police begin inflicting grotesque violence against dissenters, young children are indoctrinated in Chinese Communist Party ideology, and people are forced to learn Mandarin to have any prospect of good employment. They called it Ten Years.
Less than five years later, the film’s prescience is horrifying. What was intended as the very worst vision for the city has become a terrifying reality.
A police force still running on colonial hardware has run riot for a year, inflicting horrific violence against protesters with impunity—backed to the hilt by the authorities. Mass targeted arrests of high-profile pro-democracy activists and politicians on spurious charges have also been initiated, and on Thursday, in an act many view as the final nail in Hong Kong’s coffin, the dreaded Article 23, a mothballed provision in Hong Kong’s constitution providing for draconian national security laws, was unveiled in all but name.
While the official announcement has only proposed “legal and enforcement mechanisms in Hong Kong for defending national security” as one item among nine on the agenda for the National People’s Congress (NPC) to discuss in Beijing over the next week, the NPC’s role as China’s rubber-stamp parliament means the decision is all but final.
Although the details have not yet been published, it is likely that the legislation’s language will be deliberately ambiguous so as to allow the judicial interpretation of the laws to shift and harden over time. That’s in keeping with the mainland’s own intentionally vague and ever-shifting legal code, in which the only real authority is the Communist Party’s desire. The power of final interpretation on constitutional affairs lies not in any court in Hong Kong, or in any court at all, but in the NPC’s Standing Committee in Beijing, an explicitly political body completely subservient to the party elite. Within Article 23 itself, notions of “sedition” and “treason” are left undefined, except to state that they refer to them being undertaken against the Central People’s Government.
The timing of the announcement is not coincidental. Beijing has sought to weaponize the pandemic to achieve its geopolitical and strategic objectives in the international arena—and in Hong Kong. A gathering ban on more than eight people meeting currently applies in the city due to the coronavirus pandemic, rendering any immediate large-scale protests in response to the announcement de facto illegal.
This, combined with a widespread reluctance among the population to attend protests amid the risks of coronavirus transmission, means Beijing has made the most of a grim opportunity.
However, the fury the proposed legislation has sparked among pro-democracy activists will not diminish, and large-scale protests will eventually resume. Beijing’s announcement is long-anticipated and comes after months of intense speculation that such a move was around the corner. It’s a move that confirms the very worst fears of many pro-democracy supporters in the city, and it will not be forgotten as Hong Kong and the Beijing authorities prepare for what will be a summer of unprecedented defiance.
The tactics of front-line protesters, which already escalated in the autumn as pitched battles were fought on university campuses, will likely become both more violent and more sophisticated, even as the government attempts to characterize all resistance as terrorism. But such tactics could yet make Hong Kong genuinely ungovernable, throwing every assumption out of the window. Given the fury the announcement has sparked, chaos is a distinct possibility.
Yet while implementing draconian national security laws is an enormous gamble, if ever there was a time to do it, it is now.
The gathering ban means any mass escalation by the pro-democracy camp, even despite the extremely low number of coronavirus cases in Hong Kong, is rendered extraordinarily difficult in the short term. The annual Tiananmen Square massacre anniversary vigil, which would present an opportunity for a mass peaceful show of defiance, also cannot go ahead.
The details, let alone the wording, of the proposed legislation are yet to be revealed. However, there are reports from pro-Beijing media in Hong Kong that the bills will mimic Article 23 and be passed at the national level, then implemented in Hong Kong through Annex III of the Basic Law―to all intents and purposes bypassing the Legislative Council, requiring only a simple majority to pass an ordinance in order for it to be implemented. The pro-Beijing camp holds well over half the Legislative Council seats, as 35 out of the 70 total members are unelected, so this would be a straightforward process.
As with Article 23, it is likely that provisions contained within the legislation will be deliberately vague so as to provide for the judicial interpretation to shift over time as the authorities desire. Whole new laws could also be added as Beijing pleases, and if pro-democracy activists managed to break through the barriers put up against them electorally and won an unlikely majority in the Legislative Council elections this year, it could simply be bypassed by way of “promulgation”—a process by which Chinese laws can be implemented verbatim without legislative debate—or by the disqualification of pro-democracy members to ensure the legislation’s passage. In short, Beijing has implementation covered left, right and center. Now that the decision has been made, it will happen.
The legislation also threatens to throw the Legislative Council elections scheduled for September into chaos. Recent court rulings, including one delivered on Thursday, have largely thrown out Beijing’s past disqualifications of elected legislators. The district council elections last November in which the pro-democracy camp secured a landslide victory also only saw one candidate, high-profile activist Joshua Wong, barred from standing. The announcement is an indication that mass disqualifications of pro-democracy candidates are very much back in the cards, dashing hopes of a broadly free and fair election.
All eyes are now on the response from the international community. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has ramped up his long-standing anti-China rhetoric in recent weeks, taking a leading role in calls for an international investigation into China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak. U.S. President Donald Trump also remarked briefly after the news broke that the United States would respond “very strongly” if Beijing pushes forward with the legislation’s interpretation.
There is one clear avenue open to the administration if they wish the U.S. response to be more than just harsh words, which would be to push to remove the special status afforded to Hong Kong in its annual review of the territory’s autonomous status, which is mandated by the Hong Kong Policy Act and the recently passed Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Further actions could include Magnitsky Act sanctions being imposed against Hong Kong and Chinese government officials judged to be responsible for or complicit in any crackdown in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong’s special status means it is treated separately to mainland China in trade and commerce―so long as it remains “sufficiently autonomous” over its affairs. It has resulted in more than $43 billion in annual trade between the U.S. and Hong Kong, which would be severely threatened if the U.S. were to announce its withdrawal. Pompeo issued a stark warning to China as reports broke of the proposed legislation, stating that the United States’ decision on whether to continue to grant Hong Kong special status is “still pending.” Beijing’s announcement will serve as an acid test to examine if words will be followed with action.
Meanwhile in London, Beijing’s announcement was met with a mealy-mouthed response from the U.K.’s Foreign Office, saying only that the British government is “monitoring the situation closely.” As Britain continues to battle a coronavirus outbreak that has claimed the most deaths of any country in Europe, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be watched closely in the coming days to see if he takes decisive action.
Given the U.K.’s former colonial control over Hong Kong and the legal (not to mention moral) obligations which flow from that, the real game-changing move the British government could make would be to offer all “British national (overseas)” (BN(O)) citizens in Hong Kong full residency rights in the U.K., or extend the eligibility criteria for BN(O) citizenship to include all those born in Hong Kong after the handover to China in 1997.
BN(O) status—a form of second-class British nationality that does not bestow the right to live or work in the U.K.—has long been the subject of controversy. The mood among many in the ruling Conservative Party has shifted sharply from the talk of a “golden era” of Sino-British relations just five years ago, and extending the rights and eligibility of BN(O) citizenship is supported by many high-profile Conservative politicians. The opposition Labour Party would also likely support such an action, having recently also undergone a similar change in approach to China.
But on the ground in Hong Kong, these moves, while very welcome, would ultimately do little to change the situation. I spoke earlier with a friend who was recently elected as a district councilor in the pro-democracy camp’s landslide election victory last November. At the end of a long discussion, his final comment was: “The thing is, there are far too many people who love Hong Kong far too much for us to take this lying down.”
While this may be so, the reality is that as protesters chant, “Liberate our Hong Kong,” they will have to do so by themselves. It is difficult not to think that in this matchup between a superpower and a young, decentralized but undeniably heroic activist base, the protesters have brought a knife to a gun fight.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-22--Why Did Assad Just Seize His Cousin’s Assets?

Why Did Assad Just Seize His Cousin ’ s Assets ?
Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : What to make of a rare public feud in Syria ’ s Assad family , China moves to exert greater control over Hong Kong , and the United States ships oil to a close Russian ally .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , please sign up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Rami Makhlouf , announced this week that the regime led by his cousin—President Bashar al-Assad—had seized his assets , the latest escalation in a rare public conflict in the family that has ruled Syria for almost 50 years .
Makhlouf has posted a series of videos to Facebook in recent weeks rebuking the regime in which he was a key player for decades , offering an unusual and dangerous public challenge to Assad .
“ Frankly , if he wasn ’ t part of the family , he ’ d probably be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who served as the U.S. ambassador to Syria and is now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale .
Before the war , Makhlouf was believed to control some 60 percent of the Syrian economy and was described in a 2008 U.S. State Department cable as “ Syria ’ s poster-boy for corruption.
” During the conflict , he was a key financial backer of the regime .
He was involved in oil and construction , but it was his ownership of Syria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that has likely put him in the regime ’ s crosshairs .
The government claims he owes $ 250 million in taxes ; Makhlouf says this is a lie concocted by the security services .
On Thursday , Syria ’ s justice ministry said that he would be subject to a travel ban until the case was resolved .
It ’ s the economy , stupid .
Theories abound as to what prompted Assad to move against his cousin , including speculation that Russia—which turned the tide of Syria ’ s civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it intervened in 2015—is growing frustrated with Assad ’ s economic mismanagement and forcing him to turn the screws on his allies .
The Syrian war has become a quagmire for Russia , but Moscow ’ s distaste for regime change is well known―especially when there is no clear successor .
The more likely explanation is Syria ’ s struggling economy , which has been battered by years of war and economic sanctions .
The value of the beleaguered Syrian pound has dropped precipitously since the beginning of the year .
Aside from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been targeted for shakedowns as the regime looks to line its threadbare pockets .
In recent years , Assad began collecting payments from rich businessmen as a kind of tax , said Ford , but Makhlouf was increasingly reluctant to pay—possibly singling himself out for retribution .
When one drug door closes , another opens .
In a series of raids conducted over three months , police in Myanmar ’ s Shan state have netted Southeast Asia ’ s biggest-ever synthetic-drug bust .
The authorities seized hundreds of millions of dollars worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the synthetic opioid methyl fentanyl , which has been linked to U.S. overdose deaths .
Chinese exports once accounted for a majority of the fentanyl that ended up in the United States , but after Trump raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart in 2018 , Beijing cracked down on the drug .
This was the largest fentanyl haul ever taken by law enforcement in Southeast Asia , suggesting that regional crime syndicates may have stepped up to fill the void left by Chinese supply routes .
Desperate for gasoline .
Five Iranian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worth of gasoline and other oil products are sailing to Venezuela , where years of underinvestment and a lack of resources have left refineries struggling to convert the country ’ s plentiful oil supplies into gasoline .
At 0.00000002 cents per gallon , subsidized gasoline in Venezuela is officially the cheapest in the world—but shortages exacerbated by U.S. sanctions that restrict imports have left drivers lining up at the pump for days .
The shortages have even forced the bodyguards of government ministers to appeal for gasoline on social media .
The Venezuelan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an escort once the Iranian ships reach its exclusive economic zone in the coming days .
The U.S. government is weighing its options to deter Iran ’ s export of oil products to Venezuela .
One country , one system .
The Chinese Communist Party unveiled new national security laws on Thursday that would give Beijing increased control over the semiautonomous territory of Hong Kong , signaling an end to the decadeslong policy of “ one country , two systems ” that gave the city a high degree of freedom relative to mainland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chinese authorities to quash dissent , such as the mass pro-democracy protests that began last summer .
Immediate protests are dampened by pandemic fears , but serious unrest is likely later in the summer , as the city-state has almost no new coronavirus cases .
Clashes in South Sudan .
Hundreds of people have been killed in a flare-up of intercommunal violence in South Sudan ’ s eastern state of Jonglei last weekend .
A government spokesperson told Al Jazeera that 287 people had been killed and at least 300 wounded after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lou Nuer communities on Saturday , the latest in a deadly cycle of revenge attacks over cattle raids and child abductions .
While violence has subsided since February , when the country ’ s feuding leaders formed a unity government after seven years of civil war , they have yet to agree who will govern each of the country ’ s 10 states .
The leadership vacuum has allowed communal violence to continue .
“ The governor is a very , very important person in the state because they bring together many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authority to reconcile and take action where there ’ s non-compliance , ” David Shearer , the U.N. special representative to South Sudan , told Al Jazeera .
No more “ oil for kisses ” ?
The United States dispatched its first delivery of crude oil to Belarus this week , the latest sign that the country is looking to reduce its dependence on longtime ally Russia .
For decades Moscow provided Minsk with reduced-price oil in exchange for loyalty , a relationship that came to be known as “ oil for kisses.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ reached its nadir over the winter as Belarus resisted Russia ’ s efforts at integration .
Russian oil exports to Belarus have been reduced by around half this year , forcing Minsk to shop elsewhere .
The country has received shipments from Azerbaijan , Norway , and Saudi Arabia , but U.S. support for a longtime Russian ally will not go unnoticed in Moscow .
Top-secret suds .
A researcher at the investigative journalism site Bellingcat found that it is possible to track the movements of some U.S. military and intelligence personnel using @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called Untappd .
The app lets people upload geotagged photos of the beer they are drinking , including at sensitive installations such as the CIA ’ s training camp known as the Farm in Virginia .
One thirsty user checked in at the Farm—and 500 other places including military locations throughout the Middle East , possibly revealing the movements of a CIA officer .
It ’ s not the first such device to accidentally give away the location of supposedly security-conscious operators : In 2018 the use of Fitbit revealed U.S. military bases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: What to make of a rare public feud in Syria’s Assad family, China moves to exert greater control over Hong Kong, and the United States ships oil to a close Russian ally.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
In Syria, Rare Family Feud Escalates
Syria’s richest businessman, Rami Makhlouf, announced this week that the regime led by his cousin—President Bashar al-Assad—had seized his assets, the latest escalation in a rare public conflict in the family that has ruled Syria for almost 50 years. Makhlouf has posted a series of videos to Facebook in recent weeks rebuking the regime in which he was a key player for decades, offering an unusual and dangerous public challenge to Assad. “Frankly, if he wasn’t part of the family, he’d probably be dead,” said Robert Ford, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Syria and is now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale.
Before the war, Makhlouf was believed to control some 60 percent of the Syrian economy and was described in a 2008 U.S. State Department cable as “Syria’s poster-boy for corruption.” During the conflict, he was a key financial backer of the regime. He was involved in oil and construction, but it was his ownership of Syria’s biggest cell network, Syriatel, that has likely put him in the regime’s crosshairs. The government claims he owes $250 million in taxes; Makhlouf says this is a lie concocted by the security services. On Thursday, Syria’s justice ministry said that he would be subject to a travel ban until the case was resolved.
It’s the economy, stupid. Theories abound as to what prompted Assad to move against his cousin, including speculation that Russia—which turned the tide of Syria’s civil war in favor of the regime when it intervened in 2015—is growing frustrated with Assad’s economic mismanagement and forcing him to turn the screws on his allies. The Syrian war has become a quagmire for Russia, but Moscow’s distaste for regime change is well known―especially when there is no clear successor.
The more likely explanation is Syria’s struggling economy, which has been battered by years of war and economic sanctions. The value of the beleaguered Syrian pound has dropped precipitously since the beginning of the year. Aside from Makhlouf, around a dozen pro-regime businessmen have been targeted for shakedowns as the regime looks to line its threadbare pockets. In recent years, Assad began collecting payments from rich businessmen as a kind of tax, said Ford, but Makhlouf was increasingly reluctant to pay—possibly singling himself out for retribution.
What We’re Following
When one drug door closes, another opens. In a series of raids conducted over three months, police in Myanmar’s Shan state have netted Southeast Asia’s biggest-ever synthetic-drug bust. The authorities seized hundreds of millions of dollars worth of drugs, including 990 gallons of the synthetic opioid methyl fentanyl, which has been linked to U.S. overdose deaths. Chinese exports once accounted for a majority of the fentanyl that ended up in the United States, but after Trump raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart in 2018, Beijing cracked down on the drug. This was the largest fentanyl haul ever taken by law enforcement in Southeast Asia, suggesting that regional crime syndicates may have stepped up to fill the void left by Chinese supply routes.
Desperate for gasoline. Five Iranian tankers carrying an estimated $45.5 million worth of gasoline and other oil products are sailing to Venezuela, where years of underinvestment and a lack of resources have left refineries struggling to convert the country’s plentiful oil supplies into gasoline. At 0.00000002 cents per gallon, subsidized gasoline in Venezuela is officially the cheapest in the world—but shortages exacerbated by U.S. sanctions that restrict imports have left drivers lining up at the pump for days. The shortages have even forced the bodyguards of government ministers to appeal for gasoline on social media.
The Venezuelan military has said that it will provide an escort once the Iranian ships reach its exclusive economic zone in the coming days. The U.S. government is weighing its options to deter Iran’s export of oil products to Venezuela.
One country, one system. The Chinese Communist Party unveiled new national security laws on Thursday that would give Beijing increased control over the semiautonomous territory of Hong Kong, signaling an end to the decadeslong policy of “one country, two systems” that gave the city a high degree of freedom relative to mainland China. The new laws would empower the Chinese authorities to quash dissent, such as the mass pro-democracy protests that began last summer. Immediate protests are dampened by pandemic fears, but serious unrest is likely later in the summer, as the city-state has almost no new coronavirus cases.
Keep an Eye On
Clashes in South Sudan. Hundreds of people have been killed in a flare-up of intercommunal violence in South Sudan’s eastern state of Jonglei last weekend. A government spokesperson told Al Jazeera that 287 people had been killed and at least 300 wounded after clashes broke out between the Murle and Lou Nuer communities on Saturday, the latest in a deadly cycle of revenge attacks over cattle raids and child abductions.
While violence has subsided since February, when the country’s feuding leaders formed a unity government after seven years of civil war, they have yet to agree who will govern each of the country’s 10 states. The leadership vacuum has allowed communal violence to continue. “The governor is a very, very important person in the state because they bring together many of the tribes. They also have the authority to reconcile and take action where there’s non-compliance,” David Shearer, the U.N. special representative to South Sudan, told Al Jazeera.
No more “oil for kisses”? The United States dispatched its first delivery of crude oil to Belarus this week, the latest sign that the country is looking to reduce its dependence on longtime ally Russia. For decades Moscow provided Minsk with reduced-price oil in exchange for loyalty, a relationship that came to be known as “oil for kisses.” But the relationship between the countries reached its nadir over the winter as Belarus resisted Russia’s efforts at integration. Russian oil exports to Belarus have been reduced by around half this year, forcing Minsk to shop elsewhere.
The country has received shipments from Azerbaijan, Norway, and Saudi Arabia, but U.S. support for a longtime Russian ally will not go unnoticed in Moscow.
Odds and Ends
Top-secret suds. A researcher at the investigative journalism site Bellingcat found that it is possible to track the movements of some U.S. military and intelligence personnel using a social networking app for beer fans called Untappd. The app lets people upload geotagged photos of the beer they are drinking, including at sensitive installations such as the CIA’s training camp known as the Farm in Virginia. One thirsty user checked in at the Farm—and 500 other places including military locations throughout the Middle East, possibly revealing the movements of a CIA officer.
It’s not the first such device to accidentally give away the location of supposedly security-conscious operators: In 2018 the use of Fitbit revealed U.S. military bases worldwide.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-22--How Canada Got Tough on Guns

How Canada Got Tough on Guns

How Canada Got Tough on Guns MONTREAL—Less than two weeks after a gunman went on a rampage in Canada ’ s eastern province of Nova Scotia , killing 22 people in the deadliest mass shooting in the country ’ s modern history , Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a long-awaited announcement : His government would ban “ assault-style ” firearms in Canada—a demand gun control advocates had spent decades pushing for .
On May 1 , Trudeau enacted new regulations to ban the use , sale , and import of more than 1,500 models of firearms and their components .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ prayers , ” Trudeau said , echoing the fatalistic refrain of many U.S. politicians after every mass shooting .
“ These weapons were designed for one purpose and one purpose only : to kill the largest number of people in the shortest amount of time .
There is no use and no place for such weapons in Canada.
” Canada ’ s assault weapons ban could nevertheless provide a lesson about what it takes to get gun control measures enacted Canada is by no means an anti-gun country .
On the contrary , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Geneva-based research project , there were 12.7 million legal and illicit firearms in civilian hands in Canada in 2017 , or 34.7 firearms per 100 residents—the fifth highest rate in the world .
In 2018 , nearly 2.2 million people had licensed firearms in Canada , with Ontario and Quebec leading the list of provinces and territories .
As with all gun-related policies , the response was swift and divided : Gun rights groups lambasted Ottawa for what it called its “ flawed and dangerous ” decision and accused Trudeau of carrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would divide Canadians .
Gun control advocates welcomed the changes but wanted more : A firearm buyback program must be mandatory , they said , and Canada also should enact handgun restrictions and stricter border controls to prevent weapons from flowing in from the United States .
But Canada ’ s assault weapons ban could nevertheless provide a lesson about what it takes to get gun control measures enacted and serve as an example for Canada ’ s closest ally , the United States , which remains a global outlier with a staggering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into three categories in Canada : non-restricted ( most rifles and shotguns ) , restricted ( handguns ) , and prohibited ( specific handguns , sawed-off rifles and shotguns , automatic weapons ) .
Each comes with specific regulations .
Assault-style firearms are not legally defined , but the federal government points to a U.S. Justice Department definition to describe them as “ semiautomatic firearms with a large magazine of ammunition that were designed and configured for rapid fire.
” Previously in Canada , “ a lot of civilian versions of assault rifles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Francis Langlois , an associate member at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of Quebec in Montreal .
By comparison , some “ semiautomatic assault weapons ” were banned at the federal level in the United States between 1994 and 2004 , according to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence , a U.S. advocacy group , “ but currently there is no federal law regulating these highly lethal weapons.
” Trudeau campaigned in 2015 on a promise to strengthen Canada ’ s gun laws , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his government introduced a law strengthening firearm background checks , among other things .
Gun control advocates welcomed the legislation—known as Bill C-71—but said it didn ’ t go far enough , while gun rights groups said the law unfairly harmed law-abiding gun owners and targeted the wrong things .
But with a majority in the House of Commons , Trudeau was able to push the changes through despite opposition from the Conservative Party and pro-gun organizations .
Langlois said Canadian gun lobby groups , while less powerful than their U.S. counterparts , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , have for years been able to successfully prevent gun regulations from being passed .
He pointed to Canada ’ s long-gun registry , which was part of the 1995 Firearms Act and later dismantled by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper ’ s government in 2012 , as a good example of the gun lobby groups ’ effectiveness .
“ They transformed it from a public security issue to a public management issue , ” he said .
“ They were saying the government doesn ’ t have the capacity to run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losing money .
… The debate was not around the effect of the gun registry on the population or the security of the population.
” Still , Langlois said Canadian gun lobby groups do not compare to the NRA—and that ’ s partially why gun control measures have had more success north of the border .
“ Here in Canada the gun lobby is good , but it ’ s not as good as the NRA.
” That early advocacy led to the 1995 Firearms Act , which set out rules around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ firearms in Canada and which Rathjen described as a “ balanced , moderate , reasonable approach to gun control.
” But she said the law was “ so flawed that the market ended up being flooded with new assault weapons , and successive governments failed to address the problem.
” Nearly 4 in 5 Canadians say they support a ban on assault weapons , while 61 percent say they are in favor of banning handguns .
Now the coordinator of Poly Remembers , a group of Polytechnique survivors and victims ’ families , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in that shooting—a Ruger Mini-14 rifle—was among the 1,500 types of weapons Canada outlawed this month .
She said few Canadians were aware that assault weapons that have been used in mass shootings in the United States had been legal in Canada up until Trudeau ’ s announcement .
The AR-15 rifle , which was used in the Sandy Hook shooting in Connecticut , is only now prohibited in Canada , for example—evidence , too , of the fact that mass shootings are so rare in the country .
“ Now the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support for a ban on assault weapons is going to become even stronger , ” Rathjen said .
Recent polls show that most Canadians support these types of gun control measures : Nearly 4 in 5 Canadians say they support a ban on assault weapons , while 61 percent say they are in favor of banning handguns .
A large percentage of current gun owners—who make up about 13 percent of Canada ’ s population , according to the Angus Reid Institute—also support bans on assault weapons ( 45 percent ) and handguns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poll showed .
Rathjen urged the government to institute a mandatory buyback program and turn its regulatory changes into law .
The assault weapons measure was passed through an order-in-council , which does not require parliamentary approval .
A voluntary buyback program would mean that “ it ’ s not a buyback program to us because then people can decide to keep them , ” she said .
“ The point is to remove the guns from circulation.
” Joseph Blocher , a law professor at Duke University who studies gun rights and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hopelessness ” surrounds the issue of gun control—and that rhetoric is more prevalent in the United States than in Canada “ given the comparative size of our gun violence problem.
” In 2016 in Canada , 130 homicides were committed with a handgun , the most since 2005 , according to Statistics Canada , which amounts to about 3.6 handgun homicides per 1 million people .
By comparison , according to FBI statistics , 7,105 homicides were committed with a handgun in the United States that same year—or 21.9 handgun homicides per 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference between the two countries , the handgun homicide rate is about six times higher south of the border .
The United States also had more then 400 mass shootings last year , according to the Gun Violence Archive , an independent research group that defines a mass shooting as an incident in which at least four people were shot or killed .
U.S. gun control advocates have voiced frustrations at how it appears that that no amount of gun violence or mass shootings has led to stronger gun laws at the federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are pushing for tougher measures , though .
During his failed bid for the Democratic nomination , ex-New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg unveiled a gun control plan that would have strengthened background checks and restricted gun ownership .
A string of state governments has also pushed for , or enacted , stricter gun control measures in recent years , including in Florida , where Republican then-Gov .
Rick Scott signed a new gun law in 2018 after the deadly mass shooting in Parkland .
“ What you ’ re seeing really is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and New York , which have tightened their gun laws , and places like Texas , for example , which have continued to loosen them , ” Blocher said .
Recently , Americans stormed state legislatures and marched through city streets carrying firearmsto protest lockdown directives aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19 ; it ’ s a scene that would be unthinkable in Canada .
Another reason gun laws are tougher to pass in the United States has been organizational ; gun lobby groups “ are better organized and more intent in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and federal politics than the gun violence prevention groups have traditionally been , ” Blocher explained .
He also pointed to the Second Amendment , which guarantees U.S. citizens ’ right “ to keep and bear arms , ” as a factor for why the gun debate in Canada can appear so different .
In Canada , there is no constitutional right to own guns .
Recently , Americans stormed state legislatures and marched through city streets carrying rifles and other firearms , angry over shelter-at-home directives aimed at preventing the spread of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would be unthinkable in Canada .
“ Some portion of gun rights advocates are gun rights absolutists and don ’ t believe that the right can be regulated at all , and that ’ s just not how we treat constitutional rights .
All constitutional rights—whether it ’ s freedom of speech , freedom of assembly , free exercise of religion—they ’ re all subject to regulation , ” Blocher said .
Since 2009 , about 6 in 10 firearm-related violent crimes in Canada involved handguns , according to the national statistics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figure to say assault weapons regulations would do little to address the real driver of the violence .
Others say the government should be putting more money and attention to stopping firearms from coming over the U.S.-Canada border or on dealing with underlying issues that drive gun violence , such as domestic violence , poverty , and socioeconomic inequalities .
Jooyoung Lee , an associate professor of sociology at the University of Toronto who studies the causes and consequences of gun violence , said he was encouraged by Canada ’ s new federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grew up in the United States .
From 2018-2019 , the Canada Border Services Agency ( CBSA ) seized 696 firearms at the U.S. border , and the CBSA and Canadian police departments have received millions of dollars to stop cross-border smuggling .
But he said he hoped it would not make people complacent or allow the government to stop there .
“ I hope that people don ’ t assume that this policy is somehow going to end gun violence in Canada because that would be naive , ” Lee told Foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lack of data about where firearms used in crimes in Canada are coming from but what “ scant evidence ” does exist shows they primarily originate in the United States , “ which is like a global exporter of firearms.
” It ’ s hard to say just how many guns are smuggled over the U.S. border into Canada .
For the 2018-2019 period , the Canada Border Services Agency ( CBSA ) seized 696 firearms at the border , and the CBSA and Canadian police departments have received millions of dollars to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police also say “ a growing number of guns are bought legally in Canada and resold on the black market , or made here illegally , ” CBC reported last year .
According to Rathjen , the work of gun control advocates in Canada is far from over .
She said Canada still has “ a long way to go ” if it wants to match New Zealand or Australia , which instituted national firearm buyback programs after incidents of mass gun violence .
In a year between 1996 and 1997 , more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of Australia ’ s program , for example .
The country ’ s then-prime minister , John Howard , a conservative who was less than two months into his mandate when 35 people were killed in a mass shooting in Port Arthur , Tasmania , in April 1996 , pushed the measures through amid opposition from gun lobby groups and more right-wing politicians .
“ I just felt that … what ’ s the point of having a huge majority if you don ’ t do something with it , ” Howard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 .
In that respect , gun control measures in Australia and Canada appear to have something in common : They came in the aftermath of deadly attacks and were pushed through by majority governments ( or coalition governments ) despite fierce opposition .
Relegated to a minority government after the October 2019 federal election , Trudeau used an order-in-council to bypass Parliament to ban assault weapons this month .
That means turning his new regulations into law will take the backing of opposition parties , and the prime minister has said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on board .
Gun control measures in Australia and Canada have something in common : They came in the aftermath of deadly attacks and were pushed through by majority governments ( or coalition governments ) despite fierce opposition .
Whether his strategy could become a blueprint for a new administration in the United States is less certain .
In the United States , “ it ’ s always easier to stop the law than to get one passed , ” so there is “ an inertia that has to be overcome ” to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ laws , Blocher argued .
With the United States especially polarized these days , it appears unlikely that anything can get done in Congress .
But lawmakers and gun control advocates should not be discouraged .
With about 100,000 Americans shot and some 30,000 of them dying from gun violence every year , what appears to be a minimal change can end up making a huge difference .
“ If a gun law changes that by even 1 percent , ” Blocher noted , “ that ’ s 1,000 fewer people shot , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enormous figures .
”

MONTREAL—Less than two weeks after a gunman went on a rampage in Canada’s eastern province of Nova Scotia, killing 22 people in the deadliest mass shooting in the country’s modern history, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a long-awaited announcement: His government would ban “assault-style” firearms in Canada—a demand gun control advocates had spent decades pushing for.
MONTREAL—Less than two weeks after a gunman went on a rampage in Canada’s eastern province of Nova Scotia, killing 22 people in the deadliest mass shooting in the country’s modern history, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a long-awaited announcement: His government would ban “assault-style” firearms in Canada—a demand gun control advocates had spent decades pushing for.
On May 1, Trudeau enacted new regulations to ban the use, sale, and import of more than 1,500 models of firearms and their components. “Canadians deserve more than thoughts and prayers,” Trudeau said, echoing the fatalistic refrain of many U.S. politicians after every mass shooting.
“These weapons were designed for one purpose and one purpose only: to kill the largest number of people in the shortest amount of time. There is no use and no place for such weapons in Canada.”
Canada’s assault weapons ban could nevertheless provide a lesson about what it takes to get gun control measures enacted.
Canada is by no means an anti-gun country. On the contrary, according to the Small Arms Survey, a Geneva-based research project, there were 12.7 million legal and illicit firearms in civilian hands in Canada in 2017, or 34.7 firearms per 100 residents—the fifth highest rate in the world. In 2018, nearly 2.2 million people had licensed firearms in Canada, with Ontario and Quebec leading the list of provinces and territories.
As with all gun-related policies, the response was swift and divided: Gun rights groups lambasted Ottawa for what it called its “flawed and dangerous” decision and accused Trudeau of carrying out a “gun grab” that would divide Canadians.
Gun control advocates welcomed the changes but wanted more: A firearm buyback program must be mandatory, they said, and Canada also should enact handgun restrictions and stricter border controls to prevent weapons from flowing in from the United States.
But Canada’s assault weapons ban could nevertheless provide a lesson about what it takes to get gun control measures enacted and serve as an example for Canada’s closest ally, the United States, which remains a global outlier with a staggering level of gun violence.
To understand how Trudeau passed new gun control regulations, it’s necessary to understand the system governing gun ownership in Canada and how Canadian gun laws were passed over the past several decades.
Firearms fall into three categories in Canada: non-restricted (most rifles and shotguns), restricted (handguns), and prohibited (specific handguns, sawed-off rifles and shotguns, automatic weapons). Each comes with specific regulations.
Assault-style firearms are not legally defined, but the federal government points to a U.S. Justice Department definition to describe them as “semiautomatic firearms with a large magazine of ammunition that were designed and configured for rapid fire.”
Previously in Canada, “a lot of civilian versions of assault rifles were categorized as non-restricted,” explained Francis Langlois, an associate member at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of Quebec in Montreal.
By comparison, some “semiautomatic assault weapons” were banned at the federal level in the United States between 1994 and 2004, according to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, a U.S. advocacy group, “but currently there is no federal law regulating these highly lethal weapons.”
Trudeau campaigned in 2015 on a promise to strengthen Canada’s gun laws, and three years later, in 2018, his government introduced a law strengthening firearm background checks, among other things. Gun control advocates welcomed the legislation—known as Bill C-71—but said it didn’t go far enough, while gun rights groups said the law unfairly harmed law-abiding gun owners and targeted the wrong things.
But with a majority in the House of Commons, Trudeau was able to push the changes through despite opposition from the Conservative Party and pro-gun organizations.
Langlois said Canadian gun lobby groups, while less powerful than their U.S. counterparts, especially the National Rifle Association (NRA), have for years been able to successfully prevent gun regulations from being passed.
He pointed to Canada’s long-gun registry, which was part of the 1995 Firearms Act and later dismantled by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government in 2012, as a good example of the gun lobby groups’ effectiveness.
“They transformed it from a public security issue to a public management issue,” he said. “They were saying the government doesn’t have the capacity to run its own program, it’s losing money. … The debate was not around the effect of the gun registry on the population or the security of the population.”
Still, Langlois said Canadian gun lobby groups do not compare to the NRA—and that’s partially why gun control measures have had more success north of the border. “Here in Canada the gun lobby is good, but it’s not as good as the NRA.”
Canada has faced gun violence in the past. Heidi Rathjen witnessed a mass shooting at Montreal’s École Polytechnique in 1989. The misogynistic attack left 14 female engineering students dead, shook Quebec and Canadian society, and prompted a nationwide movement for stronger gun laws.
That early advocacy led to the 1995 Firearms Act, which set out rules around the registration, licensing, and categorization of firearms in Canada and which Rathjen described as a “balanced, moderate, reasonable approach to gun control.” But she said the law was “so flawed that the market ended up being flooded with new assault weapons, and successive governments failed to address the problem.”
Nearly 4 in 5 Canadians say they support a ban on assault weapons, while 61 percent say they are in favor of banning handguns.
Now the coordinator of Poly Remembers, a group of Polytechnique survivors and victims’ families, Rathjen pointed out that the gun used in that shooting—a Ruger Mini-14 rifle—was among the 1,500 types of weapons Canada outlawed this month.
She said few Canadians were aware that assault weapons that have been used in mass shootings in the United States had been legal in Canada up until Trudeau’s announcement. The AR-15 rifle, which was used in the Sandy Hook shooting in Connecticut, is only now prohibited in Canada, for example—evidence, too, of the fact that mass shootings are so rare in the country. “Now the public is aware, and so I think support for a ban on assault weapons is going to become even stronger,” Rathjen said.
Recent polls show that most Canadians support these types of gun control measures: Nearly 4 in 5 Canadians say they support a ban on assault weapons, while 61 percent say they are in favor of banning handguns. A large percentage of current gun owners—who make up about 13 percent of Canada’s population, according to the Angus Reid Institute—also support bans on assault weapons (45 percent) and handguns (39 percent), an April poll showed.
Rathjen urged the government to institute a mandatory buyback program and turn its regulatory changes into law. The assault weapons measure was passed through an order-in-council, which does not require parliamentary approval.
A voluntary buyback program would mean that “it’s not a buyback program to us because then people can decide to keep them,” she said. “The point is to remove the guns from circulation.”
Joseph Blocher, a law professor at Duke University who studies gun rights and regulation, said a “rhetoric of hopelessness” surrounds the issue of gun control—and that rhetoric is more prevalent in the United States than in Canada “given the comparative size of our gun violence problem.”
In 2016 in Canada, 130 homicides were committed with a handgun, the most since 2005, according to Statistics Canada, which amounts to about 3.6 handgun homicides per 1 million people. By comparison, according to FBI statistics, 7,105 homicides were committed with a handgun in the United States that same year—or 21.9 handgun homicides per 1 million people.
Accounting for the population difference between the two countries, the handgun homicide rate is about six times higher south of the border. The United States also had more then 400 mass shootings last year, according to the Gun Violence Archive, an independent research group that defines a mass shooting as an incident in which at least four people were shot or killed.
U.S. gun control advocates have voiced frustrations at how it appears that that no amount of gun violence or mass shootings has led to stronger gun laws at the federal level.
Some current and former officials are pushing for tougher measures, though. During his failed bid for the Democratic nomination, ex-New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg unveiled a gun control plan that would have strengthened background checks and restricted gun ownership. A string of state governments has also pushed for, or enacted, stricter gun control measures in recent years, including in Florida, where Republican then-Gov. Rick Scott signed a new gun law in 2018 after the deadly mass shooting in Parkland.
“What you’re seeing really is a growing divergence between states like California and New York, which have tightened their gun laws, and places like Texas, for example, which have continued to loosen them,” Blocher said.
Recently, Americans stormed state legislatures and marched through city streets carrying firearms to protest lockdown directives aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19; it’s a scene that would be unthinkable in Canada.
Another reason gun laws are tougher to pass in the United States has been organizational; gun lobby groups “are better organized and more intent in their participation in local, state, and federal politics than the gun violence prevention groups have traditionally been,” Blocher explained.
He also pointed to the Second Amendment, which guarantees U.S. citizens’ right “to keep and bear arms,” as a factor for why the gun debate in Canada can appear so different. In Canada, there is no constitutional right to own guns.
Recently, Americans stormed state legislatures and marched through city streets carrying rifles and other firearms, angry over shelter-at-home directives aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19; it’s a scene that would be unthinkable in Canada.
“Some portion of gun rights advocates are gun rights absolutists and don’t believe that the right can be regulated at all, and that’s just not how we treat constitutional rights. All constitutional rights—whether it’s freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, free exercise of religion—they’re all subject to regulation,” Blocher said.
Despite Trudeau’s swift move, some critics are questioning whether Canada’s assault weapons ban is really a ban at all and whether the government has targeted the wrong thing if it really wants to reduce gun violence.
Since 2009, about 6 in 10 firearm-related violent crimes in Canada involved handguns, according to the national statistics agency, and critics point to that figure to say assault weapons regulations would do little to address the real driver of the violence.
Others say the government should be putting more money and attention to stopping firearms from coming over the U.S.-Canada border or on dealing with underlying issues that drive gun violence, such as domestic violence, poverty, and socioeconomic inequalities.
Jooyoung Lee, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Toronto who studies the causes and consequences of gun violence, said he was encouraged by Canada’s new federal gun regulations, especially as someone who grew up in the United States.
From 2018-2019, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) seized 696 firearms at the U.S. border, and the CBSA and Canadian police departments have received millions of dollars to stop cross-border smuggling.
But he said he hoped it would not make people complacent or allow the government to stop there. “I hope that people don’t assume that this policy is somehow going to end gun violence in Canada because that would be naive,” Lee told Foreign Policy.
He said there is a lack of data about where firearms used in crimes in Canada are coming from but what “scant evidence” does exist shows they primarily originate in the United States, “which is like a global exporter of firearms.”
It’s hard to say just how many guns are smuggled over the U.S. border into Canada. For the 2018-2019 period, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) seized 696 firearms at the border, and the CBSA and Canadian police departments have received millions of dollars to try to stem cross-border smuggling. But police also say “a growing number of guns are bought legally in Canada and resold on the black market, or made here illegally,” CBC reported last year.
According to Rathjen, the work of gun control advocates in Canada is far from over.
She said Canada still has “a long way to go” if it wants to match New Zealand or Australia, which instituted national firearm buyback programs after incidents of mass gun violence. In a year between 1996 and 1997, more than 640,000 prohibited firearms were surrendered as part of Australia’s program, for example.
The country’s then-prime minister, John Howard, a conservative who was less than two months into his mandate when 35 people were killed in a mass shooting in Port Arthur, Tasmania, in April 1996, pushed the measures through amid opposition from gun lobby groups and more right-wing politicians. “I just felt that … what’s the point of having a huge majority if you don’t do something with it,” Howard said at a press conference in late 2018.
In that respect, gun control measures in Australia and Canada appear to have something in common: They came in the aftermath of deadly attacks and were pushed through by majority governments (or coalition governments) despite fierce opposition.
Relegated to a minority government after the October 2019 federal election, Trudeau used an order-in-council to bypass Parliament to ban assault weapons this month. That means turning his new regulations into law will take the backing of opposition parties, and the prime minister has said the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois are on board.
Gun control measures in Australia and Canada have something in common: They came in the aftermath of deadly attacks and were pushed through by majority governments (or coalition governments) despite fierce opposition.
Whether his strategy could become a blueprint for a new administration in the United States is less certain. In the United States, “it’s always easier to stop the law than to get one passed,” so there is “an inertia that has to be overcome” to enact any meaningful, federal-level gun control laws, Blocher argued. With the United States especially polarized these days, it appears unlikely that anything can get done in Congress.
But lawmakers and gun control advocates should not be discouraged. With about 100,000 Americans shot and some 30,000 of them dying from gun violence every year, what appears to be a minimal change can end up making a huge difference.
“If a gun law changes that by even 1 percent,” Blocher noted, “that’s 1,000 fewer people shot, hundreds more still living—those are enormous, enormous figures.”