foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--France and Germany Lock Down As Europe Prepares for Bleak Winter

France and Germany Lock Down As Europe Prepares for Bleak Winter Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : France and Germany announce new coronavirus lockdowns , Brexit trade talks are scheduled to conclude , and Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks begin in Geneva .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The European Union ’ s two most populous countries have entered into a second lockdown period as coronavirus cases across the continent continue their steep rise .
German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced new restrictions on Wednesday that would close most public spaces , but will keep shops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France has gone further , reviving strict lockdown measures that had been lifted in the summer , with one respite : schools will remain open this time around .
France is the second European country to return to a full-scale lockdown after Ireland announced similar measures earlier this month .
French President Emmanuel Macron said the measures were necessary because the spread of the virus is accelerating at a speed that “ not even the most pessimistic forecasts had anticipated.
” The French Hospital Federation , which represents 4,800 hospitals , has welcomed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only solution.
” Across the pond .
In the United States , U.S. President Donald Trump mocked lockdowns at a rally in Arizona , and warned that Joe Biden would make matters worse .
“ If you vote for Joe Biden it means no kids in school , no graduations , no weddings , no thanksgivings , no Christmas , and no Fourth of July together , ” Trump said .
“ Other than that you ’ ll have a wonderful life .
Can ’ t see anybody , but that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better than in France and Germany .
The United States has recorded more than 80,000 new coronavirus cases three times in the past week .
Even during the earlier peak of confirmed cases , in July , the highest one-day total was roughly 79,000 .
The market picture .
The S & P 500 Index dropped 3.5 percent Wednesday , its biggest decline since June 11 on news of surging cases in the United States .
The European STOXX 600 index fell nearly 3 percent .
The United States should prepare for more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Economic Analysis releases its first estimate of U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2020 , while the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases weekly unemployment data .
Five more days .
U.S. President Donald Trump holds rallies in both North Carolina and Florida today , while Vice President Mike Pence is in Iowa and Nevada .
Democratic candidate Joe Biden visits Florida , with stops in Tampa and Broward County .
His running mate , Sen. Kamala Harris , will host a virtual rally alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders .
Three out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden leading Trump by double digits .
For more on Election 2020 and its international implications , read FP ’ s in-depth coverage here .
Brexit trade talks conclude .
The chief negotiators of both the European Union and United Kingdom are expected to conclude a week of in-person talks in London today , with press conferences expected on whether the two sides are any closer to resolving trade talks .
According to reporting in Bloomberg , joint work has begun on the text of an agreement on the so-called level competitive playing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid is also close .
More Nagorno-Karabakh talks .
Representatives from Russia , France , and the United States will meet the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan today in Geneva to advance peace talks between the two sides following the collapse of a third cease-fire , signed only last weekend .
The talks come as both sides said civilians had been targeted by enemy shelling in recent days .
U.S. attempts to block WTO candidate .
Former Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ’ s status as the presumed next director-general of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in jeopardy after her candidacy was called into question by the United States , which backs South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee .
The U.S. objection caused consternation with other WTO member states on a conference call Wednesday , with other nations questioning U.S. commitment to the organization .
The WTO director-general is traditionally chosen by consensus , meaning any of the 164 member nations can block a candidate if they so wish .
However , the opposition shown by the United States so late in the process has prompted the WTO to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
If such a vote were to be held , Okonjo-Iweala would be likely to win soundly .
Writing in Foreign Policy in May , Phil Levy and Chad P. Brown argued that a U.S. departure from the WTO would be a big mistake .
Explosion at Venezuelan oil refinery .
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced that the Anuay oil refinery suffered a terrorist attack on Wednesday in which a “ long , powerful weapon ” was used .
The explosion at a distillation unit occurred while oil production was halted , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Maduro added that the alleged attack should not cripple the country ’ s energy needs , and that it had enough in reserve for 20 days of consumption .
U.S. refugee admissions at record low .
The number of refugees allowed into the United States in the coming year will be at its lowest level in modern times , after the White House announced just 15,000 refugees would be allowed settle in the country next year .
According to a White House memo , 5,000 of those places will go to refugees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for refugees from Iraq who helped the United States , and 1,000 for refugees from El Salvador , Guatemala , and Honduras ; 5,000 open slots remain , although refugees from Somalia , Syria , and Yemen are banned unless they can meet special humanitarian criteria .
The future of U.S. refugee policy hangs on Tuesday ’ s vote : Former Vice President Joe Biden has promised to increase annual refugee admissions to 125,000 , while the Guardian reports that a second Trump administration would seek to slash such admissions to zero .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ species of sea turtle is thriving .
A conservation group made of the indigenous Seri people of northern Mexico have reported releasing a record number of olive ridley sea turtles into the Gulf of California—more than 2,250 in all .
In a normal year , only 500 of the baby turtles would make it to the ocean .
It ’ s believed that restrictions on tourism and fishing due to the coronavirus pandemic helped keep more turtle nests intact .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: France and Germany announce new coronavirus lockdowns, Brexit trade talks are scheduled to conclude, and Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks begin in Geneva.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: France and Germany announce new coronavirus lockdowns, Brexit trade talks are scheduled to conclude, and Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks begin in Geneva.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
France and Germany Move Toward Lockdown as Cases Rise
The European Union’s two most populous countries have entered into a second lockdown period as coronavirus cases across the continent continue their steep rise.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced new restrictions on Wednesday that would close most public spaces, but will keep shops, churches, and schools open. France has gone further, reviving strict lockdown measures that had been lifted in the summer, with one respite: schools will remain open this time around.
France is the second European country to return to a full-scale lockdown after Ireland announced similar measures earlier this month. French President Emmanuel Macron said the measures were necessary because the spread of the virus is accelerating at a speed that “not even the most pessimistic forecasts had anticipated.” The French Hospital Federation, which represents 4,800 hospitals, has welcomed the move, calling it the “only solution.”
Across the pond. In the United States, U.S. President Donald Trump mocked lockdowns at a rally in Arizona, and warned that Joe Biden would make matters worse. “If you vote for Joe Biden it means no kids in school, no graduations, no weddings, no thanksgivings, no Christmas, and no Fourth of July together,” Trump said. “Other than that you’ll have a wonderful life. Can’t see anybody, but that’s alright.”
The U.S. outlook is no better than in France and Germany. The United States has recorded more than 80,000 new coronavirus cases three times in the past week. Even during the earlier peak of confirmed cases, in July, the highest one-day total was roughly 79,000.
The market picture. The S&P 500 Index dropped 3.5 percent Wednesday, its biggest decline since June 11 on news of surging cases in the United States. The European STOXX 600 index fell nearly 3 percent.
The United States should prepare for more bracing news today, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its first estimate of U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2020, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases weekly unemployment data.
What We’re Following Today
Five more days. U.S. President Donald Trump holds rallies in both North Carolina and Florida today, while Vice President Mike Pence is in Iowa and Nevada. Democratic candidate Joe Biden visits Florida, with stops in Tampa and Broward County. His running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, will host a virtual rally alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders. Three out of five national polls released on Wednesday show Biden leading Trump by double digits.
For more on Election 2020 and its international implications, read FP’s in-depth coverage here.
Brexit trade talks conclude. The chief negotiators of both the European Union and United Kingdom are expected to conclude a week of in-person talks in London today, with press conferences expected on whether the two sides are any closer to resolving trade talks. According to reporting in Bloomberg, joint work has begun on the text of an agreement on the so-called level competitive playing field, and an agreement covering state aid is also close.
More Nagorno-Karabakh talks. Representatives from Russia, France, and the United States will meet the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan today in Geneva to advance peace talks between the two sides following the collapse of a third cease-fire, signed only last weekend. The talks come as both sides said civilians had been targeted by enemy shelling in recent days.
U.S. attempts to block WTO candidate. Former Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s status as the presumed next director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is in jeopardy after her candidacy was called into question by the United States, which backs South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee.
The U.S. objection caused consternation with other WTO member states on a conference call Wednesday, with other nations questioning U.S. commitment to the organization. The WTO director-general is traditionally chosen by consensus, meaning any of the 164 member nations can block a candidate if they so wish. However, the opposition shown by the United States so late in the process has prompted the WTO to consider a democratic vote for the first time. If such a vote were to be held, Okonjo-Iweala would be likely to win soundly.
Writing in Foreign Policy in May, Phil Levy and Chad P. Brown argued that a U.S. departure from the WTO would be a big mistake.
Keep an Eye On
Explosion at Venezuelan oil refinery. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced that the Anuay oil refinery suffered a terrorist attack on Wednesday in which a “long, powerful weapon” was used. The explosion at a distillation unit occurred while oil production was halted, and there are no reports of injuries. Maduro added that the alleged attack should not cripple the country’s energy needs, and that it had enough in reserve for 20 days of consumption.
U.S. refugee admissions at record low. The number of refugees allowed into the United States in the coming year will be at its lowest level in modern times, after the White House announced just 15,000 refugees would be allowed settle in the country next year. According to a White House memo, 5,000 of those places will go to refugees facing religious persecution, 4,000 are reserved for refugees from Iraq who helped the United States, and 1,000 for refugees from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras; 5,000 open slots remain, although refugees from Somalia, Syria, and Yemen are banned unless they can meet special humanitarian criteria.
The future of U.S. refugee policy hangs on Tuesday’s vote: Former Vice President Joe Biden has promised to increase annual refugee admissions to 125,000, while the Guardian reports that a second Trump administration would seek to slash such admissions to zero.
Odds and Ends
With humans mostly indoors, a vulnerable species of sea turtle is thriving. A conservation group made of the indigenous Seri people of northern Mexico have reported releasing a record number of olive ridley sea turtles into the Gulf of California—more than 2,250 in all. In a normal year, only 500 of the baby turtles would make it to the ocean. It’s believed that restrictions on tourism and fishing due to the coronavirus pandemic helped keep more turtle nests intact.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--Election Violence in the United States Is a Clear and Present Danger

Election Violence in the United States Is a Clear and Present Danger Journalists covering election violence are typically more concerned with Kenya than Kenosha .
Widespread domestic unrest , political violence that accompanies elections , and calls for civil war are common in fragile states or countries with authoritarian leaders willing to unleash their pet security services on dissidents and the civilian population in general .
U.S. government agencies , foundations , and international organizations try to help by monitoring polls , helping peaceful groups to organize , and pressing regimes to ensure a peaceful transition of power .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Experts and government agencies are warning about the dangers of violence as Americans vote for their next president .
We agree that violence is likely , but violence might be limited to voter intimidation at a few polling places .
There is a risk , however , of bloodier attacks , especially by white supremacist and anti-government extremists , against minority communities and Democratic Party politicians .
The risk of violence may grow should President Donald Trump be defeated at the polls and try to delegitimize the election results .
Part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the diverse nature of potential threats on the horizon .
For the past two decades , the United States has conceived of counterterrorism as something that happens overseas against Salafi-jihadi groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State .
There have been a number of high-profile incidents on U.S. soil perpetrated by homegrown violent extremists motivated by jihadi ideology—the Boston Marathon bombings , the San Bernardino attacks , the Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando .
But now the onus has shifted to domestic considerations , which the United States is ill-equipped to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terrorism designation and the political complexities that domestic political violence often entails .
Extremists exist on both ends of the spectrum , with the threat from the far-right widely assessed to be far more dangerous than that on the far-left .
Violent white supremacists and neo-Nazis are the most pernicious manifestation of this threat , but there are also groups like the Oath Keepers , Boogaloo Bois , and a range of lesser known but still serious groups like the anti-government militias that have representation in all 50 states .
Most of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Amendment , are well-armed , train regularly , and seek to actively recruit members with law enforcement and military experience .
Based on the recent plot to kidnap Michigan Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer , they are also ambitious in their objectives and willing to take serious risks like kidnapping and harming a major U.S. political figure .
That same cell of militia members also apparently plotted to kidnap Virginia Gov .
Ralph Northam .
There are also threats on the left , with the possibility of clashes between Trump supporters and Antifa adherents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fascist and who could be motivated to resort to more extreme measures , including violence , in the wake of a Trump election victory .
Trump has repeatedly railed against Antifa , portraying the movement as far larger and more dangerous than it is in reality .
Nevertheless , by threatening to designate Antifa as a terrorist organization , Trump has put the movement ’ s members squarely in the crosshairs of the far-right , which could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of direct clashes on Election Day and in its immediate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex is the nature of the groups and networks themselves .
The white supremacist and anti-government extremist threat is marked by a high level of decentralization .
There is a constant dialogue on social media that has created a broader extremist ecosystem , but members of organized groups represent only a small part of this community .
In this ecosystem , the range of enemies is vast : immigrants , Jews , Muslims , Black people , the LGBTQ community , and liberals in general .
This range makes it hard to predict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how to defend them appropriately .
Individual motives often mix with broader propaganda and memes dominating the movement .
For similar reasons , attacks are more likely to be local—say , a mosque or a synagogue near where a potential shooter lives—rather than targets chosen by a group ’ s leadership for maximum psychological effect .
Because Trump himself may try to incite violence , or at least indirectly signal that he sympathizes with it , much will depend on his particular actions .
To say the president ’ s rhetoric is erratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regularly indicated that he sympathizes with QAnon , the Proud Boys , and other potential sources of violence and that he will bolster , rather than stop , Russian attempts to undermine the elections .
Trump , however , is not consistent , and it is quite possible he will tweet about other grievances and otherwise avoid making things worse ( though it would be too much to expect him to make things better ) .
To their credit , social media companies have become far more aggressive in trying to prevent election-related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ QAnon or other groups that spew dangerous and false ideas .
Although they have ramped up efforts as the election approaches , it is difficult for them to stop all dangerous discussion , particularly if it is embraced by senior political officials .
One can imagine a rapid back-and-forth on social media after a supposed outrage by the left ( real or manufactured ) , leading to a sudden crisis that catches law enforcement off guard and overwhelms the officers detailed to a specific site or location .
This happened when Black Lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin after the police shooting of Jacob Blake .
Outrage on social media transformed local protests into a broader confrontation involving so-called volunteers from outside the area , some violent like Kyle Rittenhouse , the 17-year-old who traveled from Illinois to Kenosha , where he shot and killed two protesters and injured a third .
First , there could be coordinated attacks conducted against polling places , committed by small cells of organized terrorists .
These attacks have the potential to be the most deadly , given the command and control of movements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of planning involved , and the likelihood of pre-attack surveillance and target selection to maximize casualties and coverage .
Given the disorganization of the broader movement and government efforts against organized groups , this is a lower probability but high-impact scenario .
Second , there is the possibility of uncoordinated attacks where radicalized individuals , largely acting independently though responding to a shared narrative of supposed election fraud , see an opportunity to act and decide to launch an attack .
Given the high volume of firearm ownership in the United States , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wreak havoc on a massive scale .
Uncoordinated attacks could result from disinformation circulating online .
There has also been a steep rise in vehicle attacks in 2020 , many of which have targeted protesters and demonstrators .
Third , Election Day could also bring more attacks on individual political leaders , as with the alleged plot against Michigan ’ s governor by a far-right militia .
Just this month , an individual was arrested in Wichita , Kansas , after threatening to kidnap and kill the city ’ s mayor—apparently angered by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government .
Fourth , terrorist attacks could be directed against locations linked to conspiracy theories peddled by QAnon .
The range of targets here is diverse but might be in some way tied to the movement ’ s obsession with child sex trafficking or directed against other institutions the movement has fixated on at various points .
This is difficult to predict—think the armed man who went to the Comet Ping Pong pizzeria in Washington , D.C. , to stop what he feared was a child sex trafficking ring .
Known as “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and falsely ) alleged that Hillary Clinton and a shadowy cabal of elites were operating a child sex trafficking ring out of the basement of a random pizza restaurant .
Fifth , and finally , Election Day may bring clashing demonstrations between supporters of Trump and those of former Vice President Joe Biden , with some incidents turning physical .
The tension is tangible , and with both sides energized to a level previously unimaginable in U.S. domestic politics , there are bound to be confrontations in a country of nearly 330 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amplified online , contributing to a sense of lawlessness and anarchy , thus instigating copycat violence and calls to engage in mayhem , civil disobedience , or worse .
Unfortunately , the dangers may only grow should Trump lose .
For months , Trump has tried to delegitimize the electoral process , claiming ( without evidence ) that voting by mail would result in massive election fraud .
Given his own vanity and the sycophants who surround him , he may even believe that the only way he lost was due to fraud @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporters to demonstrate and “ take back ” their country , that could lead to mass counterdemonstrations and a volatile situation .
Law enforcement agencies themselves would be in a precarious position , trying to preserve peace even as the commander in chief actively works to disrupt it .
What can be done to prevent all this ?
The ideal , of course , would be that the president tones down his rhetoric and , should he lose , gracefully concede defeat .
Neither is likely .
It ’ s always tempting to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social media companies and push them to do more , but for months they have anticipated these dangers and are trying hard to stop them .
The same is true of homeland security and the FBI .
At this point , constant vigilance is necessary from federal security agencies to citizens in general , all of whom must try to identify threats before they snowball and morph from local tragedies to national disasters .

Journalists covering election violence are typically more concerned with Kenya than Kenosha. Widespread domestic unrest, political violence that accompanies elections, and calls for civil war are common in fragile states or countries with authoritarian leaders willing to unleash their pet security services on dissidents and the civilian population in general. U.S. government agencies, foundations, and international organizations try to help by monitoring polls, helping peaceful groups to organize, and pressing regimes to ensure a peaceful transition of power.
Journalists covering election violence are typically more concerned with Kenya than Kenosha. Widespread domestic unrest, political violence that accompanies elections, and calls for civil war are common in fragile states or countries with authoritarian leaders willing to unleash their pet security services on dissidents and the civilian population in general. U.S. government agencies, foundations, and international organizations try to help by monitoring polls, helping peaceful groups to organize, and pressing regimes to ensure a peaceful transition of power.
But this November, things are different. Experts and government agencies are warning about the dangers of violence as Americans vote for their next president. We agree that violence is likely, but violence might be limited to voter intimidation at a few polling places. There is a risk, however, of bloodier attacks, especially by white supremacist and anti-government extremists, against minority communities and Democratic Party politicians. The risk of violence may grow should President Donald Trump be defeated at the polls and try to delegitimize the election results.
Part of the complexity that counterterrorism agencies must contend with is the diverse nature of potential threats on the horizon. For the past two decades, the United States has conceived of counterterrorism as something that happens overseas against Salafi-jihadi groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State. There have been a number of high-profile incidents on U.S. soil perpetrated by homegrown violent extremists motivated by jihadi ideology—the Boston Marathon bombings, the San Bernardino attacks, the Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando.
But now the onus has shifted to domestic considerations, which the United States is ill-equipped to handle given the lack of a domestic terrorism designation and the political complexities that domestic political violence often entails.
The risk of violence may grow should President Donald Trump be defeated at the polls and try to delegitimize the election results.
Extremists exist on both ends of the spectrum, with the threat from the far-right widely assessed to be far more dangerous than that on the far-left. Violent white supremacists and neo-Nazis are the most pernicious manifestation of this threat, but there are also groups like the Oath Keepers, Boogaloo Bois, and a range of lesser known but still serious groups like the anti-government militias that have representation in all 50 states. Most of these militias are fierce proponents of the Second Amendment, are well-armed, train regularly, and seek to actively recruit members with law enforcement and military experience.
Based on the recent plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, they are also ambitious in their objectives and willing to take serious risks like kidnapping and harming a major U.S. political figure. That same cell of militia members also apparently plotted to kidnap Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam.
In this ecosystem, the range of enemies is vast: immigrants, Jews, Muslims, Black people, the LGBTQ community, and liberals in general.
There are also threats on the left, with the possibility of clashes between Trump supporters and Antifa adherents, many of whom consider the president a fascist and who could be motivated to resort to more extreme measures, including violence, in the wake of a Trump election victory. Trump has repeatedly railed against Antifa, portraying the movement as far larger and more dangerous than it is in reality. Nevertheless, by threatening to designate Antifa as a terrorist organization, Trump has put the movement’s members squarely in the crosshairs of the far-right, which could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of direct clashes on Election Day and in its immediate aftermath.
Making any threat assessment more complex is the nature of the groups and networks themselves. The white supremacist and anti-government extremist threat is marked by a high level of decentralization. There is a constant dialogue on social media that has created a broader extremist ecosystem, but members of organized groups represent only a small part of this community. In this ecosystem, the range of enemies is vast: immigrants, Jews, Muslims, Black people, the LGBTQ community, and liberals in general.
This range makes it hard to predict which targets are most at risk and how to defend them appropriately. Individual motives often mix with broader propaganda and memes dominating the movement. For similar reasons, attacks are more likely to be local—say, a mosque or a synagogue near where a potential shooter lives—rather than targets chosen by a group’s leadership for maximum psychological effect.
Because Trump himself may try to incite violence, or at least indirectly signal that he sympathizes with it, much will depend on his particular actions. To say the president’s rhetoric is erratic would be an understatement. He has regularly indicated that he sympathizes with QAnon, the Proud Boys, and other potential sources of violence and that he will bolster, rather than stop, Russian attempts to undermine the elections. Trump, however, is not consistent, and it is quite possible he will tweet about other grievances and otherwise avoid making things worse (though it would be too much to expect him to make things better).
To their credit, social media companies have become far more aggressive in trying to prevent election-related violence and misinformation, no longer tolerating QAnon or other groups that spew dangerous and false ideas. Although they have ramped up efforts as the election approaches, it is difficult for them to stop all dangerous discussion, particularly if it is embraced by senior political officials.
One can imagine a rapid back-and-forth on social media after a supposed outrage by the left (real or manufactured), leading to a sudden crisis that catches law enforcement off guard and overwhelms the officers detailed to a specific site or location. This happened when Black Lives Matter demonstrations broke out in Kenosha, Wisconsin after the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Outrage on social media transformed local protests into a broader confrontation involving so-called volunteers from outside the area, some violent like Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17-year-old who traveled from Illinois to Kenosha, where he shot and killed two protesters and injured a third.
There are a number of scenarios—all of them troubling—that could play out on Election Day.
First, there could be coordinated attacks conducted against polling places, committed by small cells of organized terrorists. These attacks have the potential to be the most deadly, given the command and control of movements and organizations, the long lead time of planning involved, and the likelihood of pre-attack surveillance and target selection to maximize casualties and coverage. Given the disorganization of the broader movement and government efforts against organized groups, this is a lower probability but high-impact scenario.
Second, there is the possibility of uncoordinated attacks where radicalized individuals, largely acting independently though responding to a shared narrative of supposed election fraud, see an opportunity to act and decide to launch an attack. Given the high volume of firearm ownership in the United States, even lone actors possess the capability to wreak havoc on a massive scale. Uncoordinated attacks could result from disinformation circulating online. There has also been a steep rise in vehicle attacks in 2020, many of which have targeted protesters and demonstrators.
Third, Election Day could also bring more attacks on individual political leaders, as with the alleged plot against Michigan’s governor by a far-right militia. Just this month, an individual was arrested in Wichita, Kansas, after threatening to kidnap and kill the city’s mayor—apparently angered by the mask mandate issued by the city government.
Fourth, terrorist attacks could be directed against locations linked to conspiracy theories peddled by QAnon. The range of targets here is diverse but might be in some way tied to the movement’s obsession with child sex trafficking or directed against other institutions the movement has fixated on at various points. This is difficult to predict—think the armed man who went to the Comet Ping Pong pizzeria in Washington, D.C., to stop what he feared was a child sex trafficking ring. Known as “Pizzagate,” this conspiracy theory bizarrely (and falsely) alleged that Hillary Clinton and a shadowy cabal of elites were operating a child sex trafficking ring out of the basement of a random pizza restaurant.
Fifth, and finally, Election Day may bring clashing demonstrations between supporters of Trump and those of former Vice President Joe Biden, with some incidents turning physical. The tension is tangible, and with both sides energized to a level previously unimaginable in U.S. domestic politics, there are bound to be confrontations in a country of nearly 330 million people. Isolated incidents could be amplified online, contributing to a sense of lawlessness and anarchy, thus instigating copycat violence and calls to engage in mayhem, civil disobedience, or worse.
Unfortunately, the dangers may only grow should Trump lose. For months, Trump has tried to delegitimize the electoral process, claiming (without evidence) that voting by mail would result in massive election fraud. Given his own vanity and the sycophants who surround him, he may even believe that the only way he lost was due to fraud. Should the president call on his supporters to demonstrate and “take back” their country, that could lead to mass counterdemonstrations and a volatile situation. Law enforcement agencies themselves would be in a precarious position, trying to preserve peace even as the commander in chief actively works to disrupt it.
What can be done to prevent all this? The ideal, of course, would be that the president tones down his rhetoric and, should he lose, gracefully concede defeat. Neither is likely. It’s always tempting to point the finger at Facebook and other social media companies and push them to do more, but for months they have anticipated these dangers and are trying hard to stop them. The same is true of homeland security and the FBI. At this point, constant vigilance is necessary from federal security agencies to citizens in general, all of whom must try to identify threats before they snowball and morph from local tragedies to national disasters.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--The Growing Importance of South Asians in U.S. Politics

The Growing Importance of South Asians in U.S .
Politics Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s South Asia Brief .
Today : We take a look at Indian Americans and the Nov. 3 election , India ’ s military deal with the United States , Pompeo ’ s controversial comments in Sri Lanka and the Maldives , and why Bangladesh and Pakistan are protesting against French President Emmanuel Macron .
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
Experts will spend weeks and months examining data from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing is almost certain : The Indian American vote will be more important than it has ever been .
I recommend a recent report by Sumitra Badrinathan , Devesh Kapur , and Milan Vaishnav for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that outlines the rapid rate of Indian migration to the United States and how Indian Americans might vote .
Consider the following data points .
Over the last 20 years , immigrants from India have arrived in the United States at a higher rate than those from any country other than Mexico @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little over 1 percent of the American population , and slightly less than 1 percent of registered voters in the United States .
Nearly 71 percent of them were born outside the United States , and 40 percent moved to the country after 2010 , implying that the community ’ s electoral impact is still nascent .
The 2020 vote may see it emerge as an important political demographic .
In key battleground states such as Michigan , New Hampshire , and Pennsylvania , the population of Indian American voters now exceeds the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How the group votes could have a real impact on close races .
Indian American households make a median income of about $ 120,000—about twice as much as the national median income—according to new research by Devesh Kapur and Jashan Bajwa .
How will Indian Americans vote ?
The group is no monolith , but it certainly leans Democratic .
A new Indian American Attitudes Survey suggests that 72 percent of Indian American voters will back Democratic nominee Joe Biden , while 22 percent will vote for President Donald Trump .
( In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans voted for Trump . )
More on the results and the geopolitical ramifications in next week ’ s edition .
For now , I recommend the reporting of my colleagues Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer , who explain how Indian Americans could be a “ make or break ” voting bloc in Texas , and the article “ Why Indian Americans Matter in U.S.
Politics ” by Safiya Ghori-Ahmad and Fatima Salman in FP , for how they analyze the correlation between how Indian Americans vote and their support for Indian Prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military deal with the United States .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper have signed a pact to share sensitive satellite data with India to help New Delhi boost its defense and surveillance capabilities .
The deal came after Pompeo and Esper participated in the third annual 2+2 meeting with their Indian counterparts in New Delhi this week .
As FP ’ s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer describe in today ’ s Security Brief , the agreement comes amid larger moves by the Trump administration to bolster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counter China more directly .
Pompeo also found time to stop by two other South Asian countries , where he made some news… In Sri Lanka , Pompeo took the opportunity to attack Beijing—a close ally of Colombo ’ s .
“ We see from bad deals , violations of sovereignty , and lawlessness on land and sea that the Chinese Communist Party is a predator , and the United States comes in a different way : We come as a friend and as a partner , ” Pompeo said during a press @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maldives , as Pompeo announced plans for a U.S. Embassy in the capital , Male , I was struck by an exchange he had with reporter Aishath Shaany of Raajje TV .
Shaany : Being a small island state , we were disheartened about [ the ] United States ’ position to withdraw from the Paris Agreement .
Do you believe that this was the right move ?
Pompeo : Yeah , absolutely .
The Paris Agreement ’ s a joke .
The countries that have signed onto it have no intention of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at what China , for example , has done , it ’ s the biggest polluter in the region .
It presents the greatest threat to the people of Maldives and their economy .
While the interviewer moved on , it is worth noting that Beijing announced last month its carbon emissions would peak before 2030 , and that it would be carbon neutral by 2060—with no expectations of a quid quo pro from Europe or the United States .
Protests against France ’ s Macron .
Pakistan summoned France ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Minister Imran Khan said that French President Emmanuel Macron had “ attacked Islam ” by paying tribute to a French history teacher beheaded by a radical Islamist .
On Oct. 16 , a man of Chechen origin beheaded French teacher Samuel Paty in a Paris suburb after he showed students cartoons of the prophet Mohammed in a class on freedom of speech .
Earlier this month , Macron announced a plan to defend France ’ s secular values , describing Islam as “ in crisis.
” He later described Paty as a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protests in several Muslim-majority countries .
In Dhaka , Bangladesh , thousands of demonstrators took to the streets this week carrying banners calling for a boycott of France .
Kashmir land laws .
A new law issued on Tuesday allows Indian citizens to buy land in Jammu and Kashmir even if they are not permanent residents of the state , sparking immediate criticism from opposition groups opposed to an influx of people and potential demographic change in the Muslim-majority region .
Omar Abdullah , a former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrote that the state is “ now up for sale.
” Al Qaeda in Afghanistan .
As U.S.-led peace talks in Afghanistan continue amid frequent violence , I was struck by a BBC article this week in which a senior United Nations official told the network that al Qaeda is still “ heavily embedded ” within the Taliban .
Edmund Fitton-Brown , the coordinator of the U.N. ’ s Islamic State , al Qaeda , and Taliban Monitoring Team , said that “ the Taliban were talking regularly and at a high level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would honor their historic ties ” —despite the deal with the United States .
Coronavirus update .
South Asia set new coronavirus records this week .
The region has now recorded more than 9 million cases , while India ’ s number of confirmed infections has crossed 8 million .
If the official numbers are credible , then it seems the spread of COVID-19 has plateaued in India .
And given the rise in new cases in the United States , it now looks less likely that India will end the year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s most confirmed coronavirus infections .
Coronavirus cases are rising more rapidly in Nepal than in other countries on the subcontinent .
While the official daily toll is around 15 deaths each day , workers at crematoriums in Kathmandu indicate that the real numbers are likely twice as high , as fears rise about an overstretched medical infrastructure .
Facebook ’ s India policy chief moves on .
Two months ago , the Wall Street Journal named Ankhi Das as leading an effort within Facebook to go easy on Indian politicians who violated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she resigned from her job as Facebook ’ s India policy head .
Das was one of Facebook ’ s first employees in India .
As this newsletter has pointed out , the revelations about Facebook ’ s cozy ties with India ’ s ruling party have proved embarrassing for the Menlo Park giant .
India is Facebook ’ s biggest global market in terms of users and represents a growing source of revenue .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brief here .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
Today: We take a look at Indian Americans and the Nov. 3 election, India’s military deal with the United States, Pompeo’s controversial comments in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, and why Bangladesh and Pakistan are protesting against French President Emmanuel Macron.
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
South Asia’s Stake in the U.S. Election
Experts will spend weeks and months examining data from the U.S. election next Tuesday, but one thing is almost certain: The Indian American vote will be more important than it has ever been. I recommend a recent report by Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that outlines the rapid rate of Indian migration to the United States and how Indian Americans might vote.
Consider the following data points.
Over the last 20 years, immigrants from India have arrived in the United States at a higher rate than those from any country other than Mexico.
Indian Americans now account for a little over 1 percent of the American population, and slightly less than 1 percent of registered voters in the United States. Nearly 71 percent of them were born outside the United States, and 40 percent moved to the country after 2010, implying that the community’s electoral impact is still nascent. The 2020 vote may see it emerge as an important political demographic.
In key battleground states such as Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, the population of Indian American voters now exceeds the 2016 victory margins in those states. How the group votes could have a real impact on close races.
Indian American households make a median income of about $120,000—about twice as much as the national median income—according to new research by Devesh Kapur and Jashan Bajwa.
How will Indian Americans vote? The group is no monolith, but it certainly leans Democratic. A new Indian American Attitudes Survey suggests that 72 percent of Indian American voters will back Democratic nominee Joe Biden, while 22 percent will vote for President Donald Trump. (In 2016, only 16 percent of Indian Americans voted for Trump.)
More on the results and the geopolitical ramifications in next week’s edition. For now, I recommend the reporting of my colleagues Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, who explain how Indian Americans could be a “make or break” voting bloc in Texas, and the article “Why Indian Americans Matter in U.S. Politics” by Safiya Ghori-Ahmad and Fatima Salman in FP, for how they analyze the correlation between how Indian Americans vote and their support for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
What We’re Following
India strikes a military deal with the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper have signed a pact to share sensitive satellite data with India to help New Delhi boost its defense and surveillance capabilities. The deal came after Pompeo and Esper participated in the third annual 2+2 meeting with their Indian counterparts in New Delhi this week.
As FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer describe in today’s Security Brief, the agreement comes amid larger moves by the Trump administration to bolster its presence in the region and to counter China more directly. Pompeo also found time to stop by two other South Asian countries, where he made some news…
In Sri Lanka, Pompeo took the opportunity to attack Beijing—a close ally of Colombo’s. “We see from bad deals, violations of sovereignty, and lawlessness on land and sea that the Chinese Communist Party is a predator, and the United States comes in a different way: We come as a friend and as a partner,” Pompeo said during a press conference in Colombo.
And in the Maldives, as Pompeo announced plans for a U.S. Embassy in the capital, Male, I was struck by an exchange he had with reporter Aishath Shaany of Raajje TV.
Shaany: Being a small island state, we were disheartened about [the] United States’ position to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Do you believe that this was the right move?
Pompeo: Yeah, absolutely. The Paris Agreement’s a joke. The countries that have signed onto it have no intention of actually complying with it. If you look at what China, for example, has done, it’s the biggest polluter in the region. It presents the greatest threat to the people of Maldives and their economy.
While the interviewer moved on, it is worth noting that Beijing announced last month its carbon emissions would peak before 2030, and that it would be carbon neutral by 2060—with no expectations of a quid quo pro from Europe or the United States.
Protests against France’s Macron. Pakistan summoned France’s ambassador in Islamabad this week after Prime Minister Imran Khan said that French President Emmanuel Macron had “attacked Islam” by paying tribute to a French history teacher beheaded by a radical Islamist. On Oct. 16, a man of Chechen origin beheaded French teacher Samuel Paty in a Paris suburb after he showed students cartoons of the prophet Mohammed in a class on freedom of speech.
Earlier this month, Macron announced a plan to defend France’s secular values, describing Islam as “in crisis.” He later described Paty as a “quiet hero.” His remarks set off protests in several Muslim-majority countries. In Dhaka, Bangladesh, thousands of demonstrators took to the streets this week carrying banners calling for a boycott of France.
Kashmir land laws. A new law issued on Tuesday allows Indian citizens to buy land in Jammu and Kashmir even if they are not permanent residents of the state, sparking immediate criticism from opposition groups opposed to an influx of people and potential demographic change in the Muslim-majority region. Omar Abdullah, a former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, called the move “unacceptable” and wrote that the state is “now up for sale.”
Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. As U.S.-led peace talks in Afghanistan continue amid frequent violence, I was struck by a BBC article this week in which a senior United Nations official told the network that al Qaeda is still “heavily embedded” within the Taliban. Edmund Fitton-Brown, the coordinator of the U.N.’s Islamic State, al Qaeda, and Taliban Monitoring Team, said that “the Taliban were talking regularly and at a high level with al Qaeda and reassuring them that they would honor their historic ties”—despite the deal with the United States.
Coronavirus update. South Asia set new coronavirus records this week. The region has now recorded more than 9 million cases, while India’s number of confirmed infections has crossed 8 million. If the official numbers are credible, then it seems the spread of COVID-19 has plateaued in India. And given the rise in new cases in the United States, it now looks less likely that India will end the year as the country with the world’s most confirmed coronavirus infections.
Coronavirus cases are rising more rapidly in Nepal than in other countries on the subcontinent. While the official daily toll is around 15 deaths each day, workers at crematoriums in Kathmandu indicate that the real numbers are likely twice as high, as fears rise about an overstretched medical infrastructure.
South Asia, Inc.
Facebook’s India policy chief moves on. Two months ago, the Wall Street Journal named Ankhi Das as leading an effort within Facebook to go easy on Indian politicians who violated hate speech rules. This week, she resigned from her job as Facebook’s India policy head. Das was one of Facebook’s first employees in India.
As this newsletter has pointed out, the revelations about Facebook’s cozy ties with India’s ruling party have proved embarrassing for the Menlo Park giant. India is Facebook’s biggest global market in terms of users and represents a growing source of revenue.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of South Asia Brief here. For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--An International Election Observer’s Advice for America: Trust the Process

An International Election Observer ’ s Advice for America : Trust the Process By design , U.S. elections are different .
For centuries , Americans have fought over who even gets to vote—and still are .
Simply winning a lot more votes than the other side doesn ’ t mean a victory .
And there ’ s a new wrinkle , more common in the developing world , where the incumbent has cast doubts on whether he will accept the results of the Nov. 3 election .
The fact that a disputed election is even in the cards shows how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receded—so much so , that international election observers , used to watching contested elections in often violent locales , have turned their eyes to American shores .
For the first time in its history , the Carter Center , whose Democracy Program has monitored 111 elections in 39 countries ( most recently in Bolivia ) , is engaging in the U.S. elections .
Although the center will not be carrying out traditional polling station monitoring on Election Day , it has mounted a public campaign to build trust in the U.S. electoral system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Georgia Bipartisan Task Force for Safe , Secure , and Accessible Elections .
Foreign Policy spoke with David Carroll , the head of the Carter Center ’ s Democracy Program , to learn why the center has turned its focus on the United States and what lessons learned in weakened democracies abroad can now be applied at home .
Foreign Policy : So what made you take the leap into this election ?
David Carroll : We , as an institution , focus on democracy and human rights around the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries and elections where we thought that the election was going to be an important test for that country .
It ’ s usually been places that were going through some kind of democratic opening or transition , and the election might present a breakthrough .
But often , we ’ ve also looked at countries that were at risk of suffering some kind of a breakdown or a backsliding .
But in all of those country contexts , what usually unites them is some combination of polarization and a lack of trust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other elements of conflict .
So while we ’ ve known for quite a long time through our international work that the United States has many flaws in its electoral system , it ’ s only really been in the last couple of election cycles that these kinds of concerns have been rising in the United States .
And this year , it just became so obvious and compelling the degree to which there is this lack of public trust that the elections will be credible and should be accepted .
And that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party candidate saying that he might not accept the results ; those all come together as things that , if we were looking around the world , we would identify this as a country that we should take a close look at and try to get involved .
FP : You announced this initiative a couple of months ago .
There ’ s a few days to go .
Are you any more assured that the public has trust in this election than you were when you started out ?
DC : I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last month or so , heightened attention to these elections across the board , from all corners of American society .
Everybody ’ s really engaging on this in such a way that I think there ’ s a cause for optimism that there ’ s going to be more attention to trying to address questions , uncertainties , and identify good , accurate sources of information in spite of the wave of disinformation that ’ s there .
And it ’ s certainly going to continue to be there , but there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the importance of good information .
So while I don ’ t have anything concrete to point to , I do have a sense that there ’ s a lot more on the counterweight side than there was a month ago .
FP : Are you worried about Election Day and the days after ?
DC : Well , I think one of the things where I ’ m more optimistic is that there seems to be much greater public understanding and media understanding about what we should expect .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t have the ability to call the elections on election night , which is not typically the case in the United States .
It could take a little bit longer , and the message that everybody is pointing to is let ’ s just let the process work .
We have a lot of experience in this country with holding elections and following the legal processes—let ’ s just let those processes take their course .
The only thing that would be concerning is if people don ’ t accept that and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a rigging attempt .
And there ’ s really no reason to think that unless there ’ s clear evidence of that .
And that brings up the question of disinformation .
There ’ s going to be , I think , a high possibility that there will be framing of this as an election that ’ s being stolen from under the rug .
And so it ’ s really going to be important to remind people : There ’ s actually a process .
There are election authorities in every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people with a lot of experience .
There are legal channels .
There ’ s a lot of transparency .
The media will have people looking at this .
So let ’ s just let the process take its course .
FP : The decentralized nature of the U.S. election system makes it difficult to manage—does that need to change ?
DC : You know , it ’ s hardwired into our constitutional structure .
In most U.S. states , you have partisan elected officials who are ultimately responsible for election administration .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ standard in good practice , you want independent election authorities .
And that ’ s something that we could pursue in this country , as well as the independent boundary commissions to establish the boundaries of our electoral districts—another thing that is extremely politicized .
FP : You seem quite calm about Election Day .
DC : I would say that I have a great deal of confidence .
There ’ s good reason here to rely on election administrators : They are bound by law , they have election procedures , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and over again .
So there are very good reasons to have trust in this process—we just have to understand it more .
Our enemy is the distrust and the disinformation and the overreaction to a scenario where we might not have a clear outcome right away or where there might be disputes and attributing problems to fraud or rigging when there may not be any evidence for that .
And this is a dynamic that we see internationally all the time .
That ’ s frankly why international observers can play a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quite often the case that there are allegations of fraud and rigging , and there might be a kernel of some factual information in some of those claims .
Then when you kind of disassemble that , you dig deeper , and you look at the facts , you find out that there was a problem there but it wasn ’ t a systematic problem : It didn ’ t represent a large number of votes , and it didn ’ t have any impact on the outcome .
And so you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to play into those fears .
This is what we see very , very often .
FP : Twenty years ago , we had an outlier—Florida .
What happens if there is a contested situation like that ?
DC : It goes back to transparency in the rule of law and established procedures and engaging in those in a transparent , forthright way .
But the biggest risk , and the biggest concern , is that the temptation to believe disinformation , and to believe stories about rigging , gets combined with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they need to defend a process that ’ s being stolen from them .
When , in fact , that is probably unlikely to be what is happening .
And I don ’ t know , because the election hasn ’ t happened , but I think the bigger risk is that people grab onto a false narrative , and then there ’ s violence that really creates a different kind of a problem .
It ’ s not an election problem .

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foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--‘We Don’t Believe in a Political Solution’ in Nagorno-Karabakh, Fighters Say

MARTUNI/KHOJAVEND , Nagorno-Karabakh—Here there is only one thing more concerning than the constant thump of artillery shells and rocket fire—and that is the distant whirring of a drone , capable of locking on its target from long range and with devastating consequences .
One vehicle lies mangled in the grass near the trenches that mark the front line of deadly fighting , shot from the sky by Armenian forces battling Azerbaijan for control of this enclave between the two countries .
Soldiers say it is a Soviet-era An-2 biplane that has been repurposed and fitted with explosives for kamikaze bombing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out like a defiant warning .
For over a month , the two countries have been locked in a bitter conflict over the mountainous region—referred to as the Republic of Artsakh by Armenia—which is technically part of Azerbaijan , but which is populated by , and governed by , ethnic Armenians .
They are the worst hostilities in the ethnic and territorial conflict since the end of a six-year war in 1994 , and sophisticated military equipment , such as drone technology acquired by Azerbaijan from Israel and Turkey , as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is complicating things .
The death toll is already large , if a far cry from the carnage of the 1990s .
At least 1,068 Armenian troops are dead , and 40 civilians ; Azerbaijan does not release casualty information .
In Armenia , a country with a population of less than 3 million , hardly a single family has been untouched by tragedy .
Diggers roam the cemetery in the capital , Yerevan , constantly digging fresh graves to try to keep up with demand as dozens of families grieve for their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but three attempts at a humanitarian cease-fire—brokered by Russia , France , and the United States—to recalibrate and retrieve the dead were all broken within hours .
Another round of peace talks are set to begin on Thursday in Geneva , but on the front line there is no talk of compromise , only of winning .
“ We believe in peace and that ’ s what we are aiming for—victory is peace .
I don ’ t see us living together with Azerbaijanis , ” a group of volunteers told me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dirt walls as shells thundered all around .
The young men said they signed up to fight on the morning of Sept. 27 , the same morning the violence began .
They knew something had happened when they woke up and the phone lines were down .
The volunteers have some military training , with military conscription mandatory for men between 18 and 20 .
Many cut their teeth during skirmishes in 2016 , often referred to as the “ April War.
” It ’ s not without risk .
A few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 27 , a hotel worker in normal times who did not want to give his full name , received a call with news that his friend had been killed while fighting near the southern city of Hadrut .
But the violence and death isn ’ t pushing the fighters away from winning their fight on the battlefield , despite the repeated international efforts at mediation .
“ It ’ s up to us to solve this ; we don ’ t believe in a political solution , ” said Hyak , 31 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declined to give his full name .
“ Look at Syria , for 10 years they are not able to solve this .
We call all Armenians to come here and help us solve this .
If [ politicians ] could solve it , they would have done it already.
” Despite a small national population , the Armenian diaspora numbers around 7 million , and many have already rallied to the cause , raising funds to help refugees or traveling at short notice to lend a hand .
“ Armenians need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but in real life , ” Hyak said .
The men smiled with pride as they spoke .
Although their lives are on hold—Hyak had been planning to get married before the conflict flared up—dedication to the cause runs deep within the Armenian psyche .
Both sides are stubborn in their narratives , perhaps explaining why little political progress has been made over the past several decades .
Armenian accusations of a looming genocide , coupled with allegations about Turkey ’ s regional ambitions , have fueled intransigence in Yerevan .
Azerbaijan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ willingness to compromise , either .
The lack of flexibility from either party means the conflict risks spiraling beyond the help of mediation .
The young men I spoke to were all from Martuni—or Khojavend in Azerbaijani—a city that lies close to the border with Azerbaijan .
Its name roughly translates as “ ready to fight.
” The city , latticed with scars from previous conflicts , has been hit hard by intensive shelling over the past month , and fewer than 500 remain out of a prewar population of more than 5,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life of conflict and mundanity .
The old men who stayed shuffle around in camouflage and slippers , carrying guns .
Some walk streets strewn with the debris of the buildings that once lined them , taking shopping bags home while seeming to ignore the chaos around them .
As the bombardments begin in the late afternoon , people and even stray dogs take shelter indoors .
Intact windows are more or less a thing of the past , and the plastic sheeting nailed across the window frames shudders as each shell hits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher , that may be because people here have plenty of practice dashing into bunkers .
Still , both sides have accused each other of targeting civilians .
I visited heavily damaged houses in the Nagorno-Karabakh city of Askeran and the capital , Stepanakert , as well as the Cathedral of the Holy Savior in Shushi , which was partially destroyed in a double attack .
In a deeply Christian society and a country surrounded by Muslim nations , the targeting of a church feels to many in Armenia like an attack on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collapsed dome cuts deep , yet in an act of resilience and a statement of survival , a local soldier and journalist married there this week , surrounded by rubble .
The press secretary of Armenia ’ s defense ministry said on Wednesday that a maternity hospital was targeted by Azerbaijani forces , and a video allegedly showing two Armenian prisoners of war being executed is being investigated by the Council of Europe .
But the Artsakh Defense Army , the armed forces of the Republic of Artsakh , has also been accused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Azerbaijan ’ s largest cities .
On Wednesday , Azerbaijan said missiles killed 21 civilians and injured many more in the city of Barda in what would have been the deadliest attack of the war .
Ultimately it is ordinary people who will pay the price of the two countries ’ inability to come to an agreement , even if they maintain that they are defiant .
“ I can ’ t leave the city .
My sons are on the front line and I have to wait for them .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back and they see the door closed , ” said Lida Mkrtchyan , 62 , a school teacher from Shushi , who has three sons on the front line—like most of the people in who ’ ve stayed behind .
Rossa Sargsyan , 83 , wept as she showed the damage to the Stepanakert house she has lived in for 63 years .
She said the force from the attack was so strong it knocked her neighbor out of bed .
“ It doesn ’ t matter if I stay in a house @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make me leave , ” Sargsyan said .
“ We are waiting for the victory to come and everything will be restored .
”

MARTUNI/KHOJAVEND, Nagorno-Karabakh—Here there is only one thing more concerning than the constant thump of artillery shells and rocket fire—and that is the distant whirring of a drone, capable of locking on its target from long range and with devastating consequences.
MARTUNI/KHOJAVEND, Nagorno-Karabakh—Here there is only one thing more concerning than the constant thump of artillery shells and rocket fire—and that is the distant whirring of a drone, capable of locking on its target from long range and with devastating consequences.
One vehicle lies mangled in the grass near the trenches that mark the front line of deadly fighting, shot from the sky by Armenian forces battling Azerbaijan for control of this enclave between the two countries. Soldiers say it is a Soviet-era An-2 biplane that has been repurposed and fitted with explosives for kamikaze bombing attacks. Its carcass has been left out like a defiant warning.
For over a month, the two countries have been locked in a bitter conflict over the mountainous region—referred to as the Republic of Artsakh by Armenia—which is technically part of Azerbaijan, but which is populated by, and governed by, ethnic Armenians. They are the worst hostilities in the ethnic and territorial conflict since the end of a six-year war in 1994, and sophisticated military equipment, such as drone technology acquired by Azerbaijan from Israel and Turkey, as well as the apparent use of Syrian mercenaries, is complicating things.
A drone that Artsakh Defense Army soldiers claim they downed near Martuni, Armenia, close to the front line with Azerbaijan, on Oct. 25. Soldiers say it is a Soviet-era An-2 biplane that has been repurposed and fitted with explosives for bombing attacks.
The death toll is already large, if a far cry from the carnage of the 1990s. At least 1,068 Armenian troops are dead, and 40 civilians; Azerbaijan does not release casualty information. In Armenia, a country with a population of less than 3 million, hardly a single family has been untouched by tragedy. Diggers roam the cemetery in the capital, Yerevan, constantly digging fresh graves to try to keep up with demand as dozens of families grieve for their loved ones.
Thousands more are missing, but three attempts at a humanitarian cease-fire—brokered by Russia, France, and the United States—to recalibrate and retrieve the dead were all broken within hours. Another round of peace talks are set to begin on Thursday in Geneva, but on the front line there is no talk of compromise, only of winning.
“We believe in peace and that’s what we are aiming for—victory is peace. I don’t see us living together with Azerbaijanis,” a group of volunteers told me from the trenches, staying tight against the dirt walls as shells thundered all around.
The young men said they signed up to fight on the morning of Sept. 27, the same morning the violence began. They knew something had happened when they woke up and the phone lines were down. The volunteers have some military training, with military conscription mandatory for men between 18 and 20. Many cut their teeth during skirmishes in 2016, often referred to as the “April War.”
It’s not without risk. A few minutes before we spoke, Arman, 27, a hotel worker in normal times who did not want to give his full name, received a call with news that his friend had been killed while fighting near the southern city of Hadrut.
But the violence and death isn’t pushing the fighters away from winning their fight on the battlefield, despite the repeated international efforts at mediation. “It’s up to us to solve this; we don’t believe in a political solution,” said Hyak, 31, who works in a bank and also declined to give his full name. “Look at Syria, for 10 years they are not able to solve this. We call all Armenians to come here and help us solve this. If [politicians] could solve it, they would have done it already.”
Despite a small national population, the Armenian diaspora numbers around 7 million, and many have already rallied to the cause, raising funds to help refugees or traveling at short notice to lend a hand.
“Armenians need to support us, not on the internet but in real life,” Hyak said.
Laert, 27, a construction worker, and Artak, 26, who works in agriculture, both from Martuni near Nagorno-Karabakh’s front line, volunteer for the army on Oct. 25. Both withheld their last names out of concern for their safety.
The men smiled with pride as they spoke. Although their lives are on hold—Hyak had been planning to get married before the conflict flared up—dedication to the cause runs deep within the Armenian psyche. Both sides are stubborn in their narratives, perhaps explaining why little political progress has been made over the past several decades.
Armenian accusations of a looming genocide, coupled with allegations about Turkey’s regional ambitions, have fueled intransigence in Yerevan. Azerbaijan, for its part, has shown little willingness to compromise, either. The lack of flexibility from either party means the conflict risks spiraling beyond the help of mediation.
The young men I spoke to were all from Martuni—or Khojavend in Azerbaijani—a city that lies close to the border with Azerbaijan. Its name roughly translates as “ready to fight.”
The city, latticed with scars from previous conflicts, has been hit hard by intensive shelling over the past month, and fewer than 500 remain out of a prewar population of more than 5,000.
Those who remain live a hybrid life of conflict and mundanity. The old men who stayed shuffle around in camouflage and slippers, carrying guns. Some walk streets strewn with the debris of the buildings that once lined them, taking shopping bags home while seeming to ignore the chaos around them.
As the bombardments begin in the late afternoon, people and even stray dogs take shelter indoors. Intact windows are more or less a thing of the past, and the plastic sheeting nailed across the window frames shudders as each shell hits. If civilian casualties aren’t higher, that may be because people here have plenty of practice dashing into bunkers.
Still, both sides have accused each other of targeting civilians. I visited heavily damaged houses in the Nagorno-Karabakh city of Askeran and the capital, Stepanakert, as well as the Cathedral of the Holy Savior in Shushi, which was partially destroyed in a double attack.
A journalist poses with an Armenian couple who married in an act of defiance at a church in Shushi, Nagorno-Karabakh, on Oct. 23.
The Shushi church was partially destroyed in a recent Azerbaijani attack.
In a deeply Christian society and a country surrounded by Muslim nations, the targeting of a church feels to many in Armenia like an attack on local identity. The image of its collapsed dome cuts deep, yet in an act of resilience and a statement of survival, a local soldier and journalist married there this week, surrounded by rubble.
The press secretary of Armenia’s defense ministry said on Wednesday that a maternity hospital was targeted by Azerbaijani forces, and a video allegedly showing two Armenian prisoners of war being executed is being investigated by the Council of Europe.
But the Artsakh Defense Army, the armed forces of the Republic of Artsakh, has also been accused of missile attacks on Ganja, one of Azerbaijan’s largest cities. On Wednesday, Azerbaijan said missiles killed 21 civilians and injured many more in the city of Barda in what would have been the deadliest attack of the war.
Ultimately it is ordinary people who will pay the price of the two countries’ inability to come to an agreement, even if they maintain that they are defiant.
“I can’t leave the city. My sons are on the front line and I have to wait for them. It’s not right if they come back and they see the door closed,” said Lida Mkrtchyan, 62, a school teacher from Shushi, who has three sons on the front line—like most of the people in who’ve stayed behind.
Rossa Sargsyan, 83, wept as she showed the damage to the Stepanakert house she has lived in for 63 years. She said the force from the attack was so strong it knocked her neighbor out of bed.
“It doesn’t matter if I stay in a house or a barn, they will not make me leave,” Sargsyan said.
“We are waiting for the victory to come and everything will be restored.”


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--The End of Oil Supremacy

The End of Oil Supremacy

Back in May 2016 , when he was still an unlikely contestant in that year ’ s presidential race , Donald Trump declared so-called energy dominance a strategic policy goal for the United States .
A few months later , three leading Trump officials , including former Secretary of Energy Rick Perry , defined the concept as “ a self-reliant and secure nation , free from the geopolitical turmoil of other nations that seek to use energy as an economic weapon.
” Once in the White House , Trump started an aggressive deregulation campaign to eliminate the rules that had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal land and offshore areas to drilling , while removing environmental regulations .
In December 2017 , a few months after he announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement , the president made clear through his National Security Strategy document that energy dominance would not be reconcilable with the fight against global warming , and that the United States would focus instead on countering “ an anti-growth energy agenda that is detrimental to US economic and energy security interests.
” Now , if reelected , Trump would continue to be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He would continue the deregulatory efforts that characterized his first term , while retaining some influence over OPEC+ through his solid connections with the Saudi leadership to keep prices from falling below a certain point .
By contrast , a government headed by former Vice President  Joe Biden , Trump ’ s democratic rival , would put climate and the environment at the center of its policy agenda by boosting green investments , reregulating the shale industry , and rejoining the Paris accord .
His administration ’ s drive for a Green @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors as marking the end of an energy era dominated by oil , prompting a downward trend for oil prices that would transform the world of energy .
Given the feelings of his base , Trump has been able to live in denial about global warming , assuaging oil producers in key energy-intense constituencies , resisting the push of the international community to control carbon emissions , and denigrating and disqualifying science .
He has called climate change “ an expensive hoax.
” According to the Brookings Institution , since 2017 the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have weakened environmental protections .
Even so , as the latest issue of the IMF ’ s World Economic Outlook reports , each successive decade since the 1980s has been warmer than the previous one ; the years 2015-2019 were the warmest period ever reported ; 2019 was likely the second-warmest year on record .
To be fair , the United States ’ lack of commitment to decarbonization predates Trump ’ s presidency .
Between 1970 and 2008 , U.S. carbon emissions per capita were consistently more than twice as high as those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last decade have emissions declined significantly , but the gap with Europe remains high .
The gap would likely grow under a second Trump term , in which energy dominance would remain a guiding principle .
To maximize domestic production , Trump would likely try to complete his deregulation agenda and restrict the right of U.S. states to exceed federal minimum environmental standards .
He would prioritize expanded domestic fossil fuel production over renewables and hand out new approvals for liquefied natural gas export infrastructure .
Republican control of the Senate would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , most notably in the confirmation of key political appointees at the federal agencies in charge of the deregulatory actions .
Should Biden win , his Green New Deal , which aims for the United States to achieve net-zero emissions no later than 2050 , would shape his whole presidency beyond energy .
On the fiscal front , he has promised to invest $ 1.7 trillion in projects aiming to decarbonize the U.S. economy .
In particular , Biden has called for massive investment in solar and wind capacity to improve energy efficiency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has promised to spark the second great railroad revolution , investing in high-speed trains and making trains a better substitute for trucks when it comes to freight transportation .
Moreover , Biden has promised to ban issuance of new drilling permits on federal land and in federal waters .
The fight against climate change would likely also become an integral component of Biden ’ s foreign policy .
He has pledged to rejoin the Paris agreement and promises that he will not allow countries like China “ to game the system by becoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interim , the implementation of measures such as carbon tariffs would aim to both bolster the global competitiveness of U.S. companies and encourage the rest of the world to transition to cleaner energy sources .
Biden has also demanded a worldwide ban on fossil-fuel subsidies and the creation of clean-energy exports and climate investment initiatives to spread best practices and technologies across the world .
Ultimately , Biden ’ s ability to push for his Green New Deal would strongly depend on whether the Democrats fully control Congress , because much of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ congressional approval .
However , even assuming a so-called blue wave scenario with the Democrats winning both Congress and the White House , the energy transition would still take several years to materialize—with a lot of uncertainty surrounding its full implementation that would extend well beyond a Biden presidency .
Reregulation of the shale industry would likely not imply a nationwide ban on fracking—as some of the most progressive on the left wing of the Democratic Party might advocate .
Biden has repeatedly stated that he would only prohibit these drilling techniques on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of fraction of overall oil and gas extraction .
Furthermore , and a bit paradoxically , in order to green the American economy , oil demand in the United States could receive a significant boost , since oil would still power many of the investment projects that Biden is promising .
Building such infrastructure will still require using equipment that runs on oil , for example .

Back in May 2016, when he was still an unlikely contestant in that year’s presidential race, Donald Trump declared so-called energy dominance a strategic policy goal for the United States. A few months later, three leading Trump officials, including former Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, defined the concept as “a self-reliant and secure nation, free from the geopolitical turmoil of other nations that seek to use energy as an economic weapon.”
Back in May 2016, when he was still an unlikely contestant in that year’s presidential race, Donald Trump declared so-called energy dominance a strategic policy goal for the United States. A few months later, three leading Trump officials, including former Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, defined the concept as “a self-reliant and secure nation, free from the geopolitical turmoil of other nations that seek to use energy as an economic weapon.”
Once in the White House, Trump started an aggressive deregulation campaign to eliminate the rules that had stifled domestic production, opening up more federal land and offshore areas to drilling, while removing environmental regulations. In December 2017, a few months after he announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, the president made clear through his National Security Strategy document that energy dominance would not be reconcilable with the fight against global warming, and that the United States would focus instead on countering “an anti-growth energy agenda that is detrimental to US economic and energy security interests.”
Now, if reelected, Trump would continue to be a boon for the domestic oil industry. He would continue the deregulatory efforts that characterized his first term, while retaining some influence over OPEC+ through his solid connections with the Saudi leadership to keep prices from falling below a certain point.
By contrast, a government headed by former Vice President Joe Biden, Trump’s democratic rival, would put climate and the environment at the center of its policy agenda by boosting green investments, reregulating the shale industry, and rejoining the Paris accord. His administration’s drive for a Green New Deal would likely be perceived by investors as marking the end of an energy era dominated by oil, prompting a downward trend for oil prices that would transform the world of energy.
The two candidates’ diverging approaches toward climate change reflect the radically different attitudes of Republican and Democratic voters toward the issue. According to a recent Pew survey, the share of Americans who believe that global climate change is a major threat to the well-being of the United States has grown from 44 percent in 2009 to 60 percent in 2019. But the rise in concern has primarily come from the Democrats. Opinion among Republicans on this issue remain largely unchanged. About nine in ten Democrats (88 percent) consider climate change a major threat to the nation as opposed to just three Republicans (31 percent).
Given the feelings of his base, Trump has been able to live in denial about global warming, assuaging oil producers in key energy-intense constituencies, resisting the push of the international community to control carbon emissions, and denigrating and disqualifying science. He has called climate change “an expensive hoax.” According to the Brookings Institution, since 2017 the Trump administration has adopted 74 deregulatory actions that have weakened environmental protections. Even so, as the latest issue of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reports, each successive decade since the 1980s has been warmer than the previous one; the years 2015-2019 were the warmest period ever reported; 2019 was likely the second-warmest year on record.
To be fair, the United States’ lack of commitment to decarbonization predates Trump’s presidency. Between 1970 and 2008, U.S. carbon emissions per capita were consistently more than twice as high as those from the European Union. Only over the last decade have emissions declined significantly, but the gap with Europe remains high. The gap would likely grow under a second Trump term, in which energy dominance would remain a guiding principle.
To maximize domestic production, Trump would likely try to complete his deregulation agenda and restrict the right of U.S. states to exceed federal minimum environmental standards. He would prioritize expanded domestic fossil fuel production over renewables and hand out new approvals for liquefied natural gas export infrastructure. Republican control of the Senate would be necessary to push through these initiatives, most notably in the confirmation of key political appointees at the federal agencies in charge of the deregulatory actions.
Should Biden win, his Green New Deal, which aims for the United States to achieve net-zero emissions no later than 2050, would shape his whole presidency beyond energy. On the fiscal front, he has promised to invest $1.7 trillion in projects aiming to decarbonize the U.S. economy. In particular, Biden has called for massive investment in solar and wind capacity to improve energy efficiency and impose clean electricity standards. He has promised to spark the second great railroad revolution, investing in high-speed trains and making trains a better substitute for trucks when it comes to freight transportation. Moreover, Biden has promised to ban issuance of new drilling permits on federal land and in federal waters.
The fight against climate change would likely also become an integral component of Biden’s foreign policy. He has pledged to rejoin the Paris agreement and promises that he will not allow countries like China “to game the system by becoming destination economies for polluters.” In the interim, the implementation of measures such as carbon tariffs would aim to both bolster the global competitiveness of U.S. companies and encourage the rest of the world to transition to cleaner energy sources. Biden has also demanded a worldwide ban on fossil-fuel subsidies and the creation of clean-energy exports and climate investment initiatives to spread best practices and technologies across the world.
Ultimately, Biden’s ability to push for his Green New Deal would strongly depend on whether the Democrats fully control Congress, because much of his plan envisages new public spending that needs congressional approval. However, even assuming a so-called blue wave scenario with the Democrats winning both Congress and the White House, the energy transition would still take several years to materialize—with a lot of uncertainty surrounding its full implementation that would extend well beyond a Biden presidency.
Reregulation of the shale industry would likely not imply a nationwide ban on fracking—as some of the most progressive on the left wing of the Democratic Party might advocate. Biden has repeatedly stated that he would only prohibit these drilling techniques on federal land, which represents a tiny of fraction of overall oil and gas extraction. Furthermore, and a bit paradoxically, in order to green the American economy, oil demand in the United States could receive a significant boost, since oil would still power many of the investment projects that Biden is promising. Building such infrastructure will still require using equipment that runs on oil, for example.
Finally, although Biden’s Green New Deal is heavily focused on government intervention, a successful green transition requires the commitment of Americans to change their way of living. And there is a large fraction of the American population that is resistant to doing so.
As a direct consequence of Trump’s energy-dominance policy framework, domestic crude production would increase while oil prices fall. Trump would probably try to contain downward price pressures by influencing OPEC+ as he did during his first term through his inflammatory Twitter diplomacy. His leverage over the cartel derives primarily from his ability to exert political and economic pressure on the Saudi leadership thanks to his tough stance adopted against Iran. However, this time around his influence might be compromised by the COVID-19 crisis that is creating enormous challenges for energy-dependent countries at a time when demand is struggling to return to normal.
By contrast, Biden’s Green New Deal would weigh on U.S. producers, restricting production and exerting upward price pressure—at least during the transition towards a greener economy when demand for fossil fuels will remain strong. The contraction in oil-related investments recorded in the last few months will further compound the price dynamics. But, in the short term, rising oil prices might be partly offset by Biden’s conciliatory approach toward Iran and Venezuela, which may bring around 3mb/d of additional supply to the global market.
Despite these short-term price fluctuations, a Biden presidency is likely to be perceived as a regime change for the oil industry and would gradually set in motion a secular downward spiral for oil prices. For the first time, peak oil would really be in sight. Investors may price in a structural change in the industry due to a growing shift of demand toward clean energy. Moreover, the Green New Deal would likely affect market conditions beyond the United States, potentially ushering in a green revolution on a global scale (in Europe, it has already started) especially if environmental standards enter the U.S. trade policy.
In other words, Nov. 3 might not only mark the end of the Trump era. If Biden wins, it would mean the end of the oil supremacy, too.