foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia

Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia The reviews of the foreign policy of Japan ’ s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe , who announced his resignation on Aug. 28 citing health reasons , have been largely positive .
The overall assessment is that Abe was a “ pragmatic realist , ” strengthening the alliance with the United States , finding new partnerships with rising powers like Australia and India , promoting free trade and the liberal order , and striking a more assertive and influential posture on the international stage .
But such assessments miss one critical point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with South Korea , one of Japan ’ s most important security and trade partners , and drove it into a ditch for reasons neither realistic nor pragmatic .
In a Gallup Korea poll from November 2019 , Abe ’ s favorability among the South Korean public clocked in at miserable 3 percent , lower than Russia ’ s Vladimir Putin ( 17 percent ) , China ’ s Xi Jinping ( 15 percent ) , and North Korea ’ s Kim Jong Un ( 9 percent ) .
To be sure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rating than Putin , Xi , or Kim , irrespective of his faults .
Abe ’ s low favorability is also not entirely his fault ; rather , in no small part , it is a reflection of the fact that he interacted mostly with former South Korean President Park Geun-hye , the radioactively unpopular leader who was impeached and removed from office in 2017 .
Nevertheless , it remains true that Abe took a thriving relationship , if one still haunted by historical issues , and left it in pieces .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began improving significantly as the Seoul government transitioned from military dictatorship to democracy , and Japan ’ s political climate became more liberal .
In 1993 , Japan recognized and apologized to the so-called comfort women , the Korean military sex slaves for the Imperial Japanese Army during World War II .
The two countries opened the pop culture markets for each other , with South Korea lifting a previous ban on Japanese movies , TV , and music , leading to a common pop culture built on anime and K-pop .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Naoto Kan commemorating the centennial of Japan ’ s annexation of Korea received high marks from South Koreans as he expressed the desire to “ face history with sincerity.
” Buoyed by this gradual process of reconciliation and cultural exchange , South Korea and Japan formed a tightly knit trade relationship : They are each other ’ s third-largest trading partners , behind only China and the United States .
Pragmatic realism for Japan ’ s foreign policy would have meant nurturing this relationship and forming an even stronger bond with its closest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face of nuclear North Korea and an increasingly illiberal China .
Unfortunately , however , Abe did the opposite .
When it came to South Korea , Abe rarely strayed from being an ideologue committed to right-wing nationalism , with revisionist views on Imperial Japan ’ s colonial legacy .
The result is that a relationship that was near its peak in 2012 is now at a nadir since Japan and South Korea normalized their diplomatic relationship in 1965 .
Abe ’ s revisionism is not exactly a secret .
He has expressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who was imprisoned after World War II on the charges of being a Class A war criminal .
Abe was a special advisor to the group Nippon Kaigi ( Japan Conference ) , which claims Imperial Japan should be lauded for liberating Asia from Western colonial powers , the Tokyo war crimes tribunals were illegitimate , and war crimes such as the Rape of Nanking in 1937 were exaggerated or fabricated .
( In 2014 , 15 out of 18 cabinet members in the Abe administration were Nippon Kaigi members . )
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as prime minister , Abe personally disavowed the 1993 Kono Statement that apologized to the World War II-era victims of systematic sexual abuse by the Japanese army , dishonestly claiming a lack of evidence .
When Kan made the centennial speech accepting responsibility for Imperial Japan ’ s annexation of Korea , Abe yelled , “ Idiot !
” at Kan on live television .
Upon taking office again in 2012 , Abe wasted no time in showing the world where he stood on the history issues : He openly flirted with officially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comfort women and visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine , which enshrines Japan ’ s war criminals , over strong criticisms from both South Korea and the United States .
The 2015 agreement regarding comfort women is sometimes cited as showing Abe ’ s pragmatism .
Under strong pressure from the Obama administration in the United States , South Korea and Japan reached an agreement in which Japan would use its government budget to fund a foundation to assist the former military sex slaves .
But the agreement , made with Park Geun-hye , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now scorns , is less than meets the eye .
Because no former victims were consulted in the negotiation leading up to the agreement , it did not reflect any of their long-standing demands , such as recognition of the Imperial Japanese Army ’ s direct involvement in establishing rape stations on the front lines .
( Indeed , soon after the agreement was announced , Abe repeated his stance in his address to Japan ’ s legislature that the comfort women system was not a war crime and the agreement was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an undisclosed side deal , the Abe administration demanded the Park administration stop using the term “ sex slaves ” to describe the victims , and that it relocate the memorial statue to them currently placed in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul .
Taken together , the 2015 agreement resembles less an attempt for reconciliation and more a coercive nondisclosure agreement against victims of horrendous sexual assault that says : Here ’ s the money , now shut up .
All of this drove South Korea-Japan relations to the brink , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misstep marched the relationship off the cliff .
In order to settle the historical score , he weaponized the two countries ’ trade relationship .
In October 2018 , South Korea ’ s Supreme Court issued the long-delayed opinion that Japanese corporations that used slave labor from Korea during World War II must pay reparations to surviving slave laborers .
( The delay was in part because since 2013 , Japan ’ s foreign ministry had been issuing barely disguised threats for the South Korean government to “ respond appropriately ” to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Geun-hye government acquiesced and pressured the Supreme Court to delay the ruling in contravention of the most basic principles of separation of powers . )
In response to the court ’ s opinion—which ordered the reparation of $ 89,000 , a negligible amount for Japan ’ s largest corporations—Abe declared a trade war .
The Abe administration announced export control against South Korea for three critical chemicals used in high-end display and semiconductor manufacturing , immediately after the G-20 summit in Osaka , Japan , in which the prime minister called for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the criticism that Japan was using trade for political purposes , Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga ( the front-runner to be the next prime minister ) vaguely cited national security concerns as the reason for the export control , even as he dangled the idea that South Korea “ did not offer a satisfactory solution over the issue of former workers.
” So flimsy was the justification that some experts observing the issue noted that Japanese officials “ haven ’ t provided any evidence ” and “ have not named companies or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Others went further , calling Tokyo ’ s excuse “ duplicitous ” and saying it was behaving “ spuriously.
” Adding insult to injury , Abe ’ s trade war did not even achieve the intended result .
South Korea ’ s high-tech companies simply carried on with domestically sourced chemicals .
In some cases , South Korean conglomerates even convinced Japanese companies to open new factories in the country , as was the case with Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. , which began producing the chemical product photoresist in a new factory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Regardless of its effectiveness , Abe ’ s trade war crossed a major line : It dissolved the firewall between politics and economic cooperation .
For the past several decades , the economies of Japan and South Korea grew together as the two countries formed an integrated supply chain .
That chain is no more : Leading South Korean companies such as Samsung , LG , and SK have already begun shifting their sourcing and will continue to do so .
The trade war also threw cold water on the cultural exchange between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Korean public began a wide-ranging boycott of Japanese consumer products and tourism .
Even before the coronavirus pandemic , South Korean visitors to Japan cratered , with the number dropping by 48 percent in 2018 and again by 58 percent year-on-year in 2019 .
A pragmatic Japanese leader would recognize South Korea ’ s importance to their country and set aside minor points of pride in favor of tangible gains .
In Europe , Germany—Imperial Japan ’ s former ally—has so humbled itself over its historical atrocities that there is little complaint about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Japan could have done the same and , however haltingly , was on the way toward doing so until Shinzo Abe took office .
Throughout his tenure , Abe needlessly damaged the partnership with his country ’ s closest neighbor , a liberal democracy and major economic and military power , for the pettiest and the most indefensible reason : whitewashing the shameful history of Japan ’ s imperialism .
Given China ’ s freshly authoritarian turn , this may well be remembered as a grievous mistake that sowed pointless dissension between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ East Asia .

The reviews of the foreign policy of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who announced his resignation on Aug. 28 citing health reasons, have been largely positive. The overall assessment is that Abe was a “ pragmatic realist ,” strengthening the alliance with the United States, finding new partnerships with rising powers like Australia and India, promoting free trade and the liberal order, and striking a more assertive and influential posture on the international stage. But such assessments miss one critical point: Abe took Japan’s relationship with South Korea, one of Japan’s most important security and trade partners, and drove it into a ditch for reasons neither realistic nor pragmatic.
The reviews of the foreign policy of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who announced his resignation on Aug. 28 citing health reasons, have been largely positive. The overall assessment is that Abe was a “pragmatic realist,” strengthening the alliance with the United States, finding new partnerships with rising powers like Australia and India, promoting free trade and the liberal order, and striking a more assertive and influential posture on the international stage. But such assessments miss one critical point: Abe took Japan’s relationship with South Korea, one of Japan’s most important security and trade partners, and drove it into a ditch for reasons neither realistic nor pragmatic.
In a Gallup Korea poll from November 2019, Abe’s favorability among the South Korean public clocked in at miserable 3 percent, lower than Russia’s Vladimir Putin (17 percent), China’s Xi Jinping (15 percent), and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un (9 percent). To be sure, Abe does not deserve a lower favorability rating than Putin, Xi, or Kim, irrespective of his faults. Abe’s low favorability is also not entirely his fault; rather, in no small part, it is a reflection of the fact that he interacted mostly with former South Korean President Park Geun-hye, the radioactively unpopular leader who was impeached and removed from office in 2017. Nevertheless, it remains true that Abe took a thriving relationship, if one still haunted by historical issues, and left it in pieces.
In the 1990s, the South Korea-Japan relationship began improving significantly as the Seoul government transitioned from military dictatorship to democracy, and Japan’s political climate became more liberal. In 1993, Japan recognized and apologized to the so-called comfort women, the Korean military sex slaves for the Imperial Japanese Army during World War II. The two countries opened the pop culture markets for each other, with South Korea lifting a previous ban on Japanese movies, TV, and music, leading to a common pop culture built on anime and K-pop. The 2010 statement by liberal Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan commemorating the centennial of Japan’s annexation of Korea received high marks from South Koreans as he expressed the desire to “face history with sincerity.” Buoyed by this gradual process of reconciliation and cultural exchange, South Korea and Japan formed a tightly knit trade relationship: They are each other’s third-largest trading partners, behind only China and the United States.
Pragmatic realism for Japan’s foreign policy would have meant nurturing this relationship and forming an even stronger bond with its closest neighboring liberal democracy, particularly in the face of nuclear North Korea and an increasingly illiberal China. Unfortunately, however, Abe did the opposite. When it came to South Korea, Abe rarely strayed from being an ideologue committed to right-wing nationalism, with revisionist views on Imperial Japan’s colonial legacy. The result is that a relationship that was near its peak in 2012 is now at a nadir since Japan and South Korea normalized their diplomatic relationship in 1965.
Abe’s revisionism is not exactly a secret. He has expressed admiration for his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, who was imprisoned after World War II on the charges of being a Class A war criminal. Abe was a special advisor to the group Nippon Kaigi (Japan Conference), which claims Imperial Japan should be lauded for liberating Asia from Western colonial powers, the Tokyo war crimes tribunals were illegitimate, and war crimes such as the Rape of Nanking in 1937 were exaggerated or fabricated. (In 2014, 15 out of 18 cabinet members in the Abe administration were Nippon Kaigi members.)
In 2007, during his brief first stint as prime minister, Abe personally disavowed the 1993 Kono Statement that apologized to the World War II-era victims of systematic sexual abuse by the Japanese army, dishonestly claiming a lack of evidence. When Kan made the centennial speech accepting responsibility for Imperial Japan’s annexation of Korea, Abe yelled, “Idiot!” at Kan on live television. Upon taking office again in 2012, Abe wasted no time in showing the world where he stood on the history issues: He openly flirted with officially retracting the 1993 apology to the so-called comfort women and visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines Japan’s war criminals, over strong criticisms from both South Korea and the United States.
The 2015 agreement regarding comfort women is sometimes cited as showing Abe’s pragmatism. Under strong pressure from the Obama administration in the United States, South Korea and Japan reached an agreement in which Japan would use its government budget to fund a foundation to assist the former military sex slaves. But the agreement, made with Park Geun-hye, whom most of the South Korean public now scorns, is less than meets the eye. Because no former victims were consulted in the negotiation leading up to the agreement, it did not reflect any of their long-standing demands, such as recognition of the Imperial Japanese Army’s direct involvement in establishing rape stations on the front lines. (Indeed, soon after the agreement was announced, Abe repeated his stance in his address to Japan’s legislature that the comfort women system was not a war crime and the agreement was not a recognition as such.) In an undisclosed side deal, the Abe administration demanded the Park administration stop using the term “sex slaves” to describe the victims, and that it relocate the memorial statue to them currently placed in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul. Taken together, the 2015 agreement resembles less an attempt for reconciliation and more a coercive nondisclosure agreement against victims of horrendous sexual assault that says: Here’s the money, now shut up.
All of this drove South Korea-Japan relations to the brink, and then Abe’s most egregious misstep marched the relationship off the cliff. In order to settle the historical score, he weaponized the two countries’ trade relationship. In October 2018, South Korea’s Supreme Court issued the long-delayed opinion that Japanese corporations that used slave labor from Korea during World War II must pay reparations to surviving slave laborers. (The delay was in part because since 2013, Japan’s foreign ministry had been issuing barely disguised threats for the South Korean government to “respond appropriately” to the pending case, and the quasi-authoritarian Park Geun-hye government acquiesced and pressured the Supreme Court to delay the ruling in contravention of the most basic principles of separation of powers.)
In response to the court’s opinion—which ordered the reparation of $89,000, a negligible amount for Japan’s largest corporations—Abe declared a trade war. The Abe administration announced export control against South Korea for three critical chemicals used in high-end display and semiconductor manufacturing, immediately after the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, in which the prime minister called for a free and fair trade. When confronted with the criticism that Japan was using trade for political purposes, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga (the front-runner to be the next prime minister) vaguely cited national security concerns as the reason for the export control, even as he dangled the idea that South Korea “did not offer a satisfactory solution over the issue of former workers.” So flimsy was the justification that some experts observing the issue noted that Japanese officials “haven’t provided any evidence” and “have not named companies or said how supplies may have been mismanaged.” Others went further, calling Tokyo’s excuse “duplicitous” and saying it was behaving “spuriously.”
Adding insult to injury, Abe’s trade war did not even achieve the intended result. South Korea’s high-tech companies simply carried on with domestically sourced chemicals. In some cases, South Korean conglomerates even convinced Japanese companies to open new factories in the country, as was the case with Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., which began producing the chemical product photoresist in a new factory near Seoul to supply Samsung Electronics. Regardless of its effectiveness, Abe’s trade war crossed a major line: It dissolved the firewall between politics and economic cooperation. For the past several decades, the economies of Japan and South Korea grew together as the two countries formed an integrated supply chain. That chain is no more: Leading South Korean companies such as Samsung, LG, and SK have already begun shifting their sourcing and will continue to do so. The trade war also threw cold water on the cultural exchange between the two countries, as the South Korean public began a wide-ranging boycott of Japanese consumer products and tourism. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, South Korean visitors to Japan cratered, with the number dropping by 48 percent in 2018 and again by 58 percent year-on-year in 2019.
A pragmatic Japanese leader would recognize South Korea’s importance to their country and set aside minor points of pride in favor of tangible gains. In Europe, Germany—Imperial Japan’s former ally—has so humbled itself over its historical atrocities that there is little complaint about its leadership role in the European Union. Japan could have done the same and, however haltingly, was on the way toward doing so until Shinzo Abe took office. Throughout his tenure, Abe needlessly damaged the partnership with his country’s closest neighbor, a liberal democracy and major economic and military power, for the pettiest and the most indefensible reason: whitewashing the shameful history of Japan’s imperialism. Given China’s freshly authoritarian turn, this may well be remembered as a grievous mistake that sowed pointless dissension between the two most powerful liberal democracies of East Asia.


foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--Indian Social Media Goes Nuts Over Fake Claim of Su-35 Shootdown

Indian Social Media Goes Nuts Over Fake Claim of Su-35 Shootdown Early on Friday morning in India , a video purporting to show a Chinese Su-35 , a Russian-built plane used by the Chinese military , shot down in Taiwan began to spread like wildfire online , promoted by military-oriented accounts with large followings , by quick-hit news sites , and throughout Indian social media as a whole .
A confused—and irate—Taiwanese government strongly denied the claims , which , as of writing , has barely dampened the Indian enthusiasm for them .
The story itself will probably burn out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its emergence shows how entangled nationalist fantasies are becoming in Asia , and how dangerous they might be .
It ’ s unclear where the video actually came from , what it shows , or even how recent it is—but the most likely possibility seems to be an air accident in China itself .
The plane involved may not even be a Su-35 , but a J-10 , a Chinese-built plane with a record of engine failures .
Taiwan actually shooting down a Chinese plane would be an enormously significant , and risky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be the spark of a war ; at best it would provoke economic and political retaliation from China—even if the Chinese had deliberately violated Taiwanese airspace .
There was immediate worry inside the Taiwanese government that the video might have been a deliberate attempt to stir tensions .
That seems unlikely .
Instead , what happened is a compounding of bullshit on both the Chinese and the Indian sides .
The bullshit started with the Global Times , a Chinese nationalist tabloid run under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That gives Global Times ( where I once worked ) a credibility it doesn ’ t deserve ; Global Times editorials , often dictated impromptu over the phone by the pugnacious editor Hu Xijin , sometimes presage actual government action but are far more frequently about Hu ’ s own efforts to drum up traffic or troll the rest of the world .
An editorial on Monday called for the Chinese air force to establish regular patrols over Taiwan and a declaration of war if Taiwan acted to defend its airspace .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it ’ s highly unlikely that even Hu meant it as a serious suggestion .
But Indian media takes the Global Times extremely seriously .
India ’ s own nationalist newspapers have a dysfunctional relationship with their Chinese counterpart ; the Global Times prints some mad bullshit , often insulting India directly .
Indian newspapers and websites pick up on it , often describing it as “ China ” or “ the Chinese government ” making those statements .
The Global Times then writes more pieces in response to them .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ s traffic rises .
( The English-language version of the Global Times isn ’ t really intended as a plausible commercial venture , but the editors are directly incentivized and rewarded not just for traffic as a whole , but for mentions of pieces in foreign media , whether good or bad . )
The idea of Chinese patrols , then , was already circulating in an Indian online media sphere that ’ s completely obsessed with China at the moment , following the clash in Galwan Valley that left 20 Indian soldiers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Relations between New Delhi and Beijing are at a nadir not seen since the 1970s .
More border clashes this week , apparently leaving at least one Indian soldier dead , had put Chinese aggression back in headlines again .
Online Indian takes on China ’ s military power tend also to swing from the panicky—the Chinese military can crush India unless India redoubles its efforts—to the cocky : Our brave jawans can defeat the invader !
Wherever the video originated , it dropped into a perfectly receptive atmosphere : an Indian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aggression and Chinese failure .
The Taiwanese , meanwhile , were left scratching their heads .
As Asian geopolitics get hotter and online nationalisms meaner , more such misinformation will spread .
Most of it will burn out into nothing—but the bit that doesn ’ t could be the spark that gets people killed .

Early on Friday morning in India, a video purporting to show a Chinese Su-35, a Russian-built plane used by the Chinese military, shot down in Taiwan began to spread like wildfire online, promoted by military-oriented accounts with large followings , by quick-hit news sites, and throughout Indian social media as a whole. A confused —and irate—Taiwanese government strongly denied the claims, which, as of writing, has barely dampened the Indian enthusiasm for them. The story itself will probably burn out within a day or two, but its emergence shows how entangled nationalist fantasies are becoming in Asia, and how dangerous they might be.
Early on Friday morning in India, a video purporting to show a Chinese Su-35, a Russian-built plane used by the Chinese military, shot down in Taiwan began to spread like wildfire online, promoted by military-oriented accounts with large followings, by quick-hit news sites, and throughout Indian social media as a whole. A confused—and irate—Taiwanese government strongly denied the claims, which, as of writing, has barely dampened the Indian enthusiasm for them. The story itself will probably burn out within a day or two, but its emergence shows how entangled nationalist fantasies are becoming in Asia, and how dangerous they might be.
It’s unclear where the video actually came from, what it shows, or even how recent it is—but the most likely possibility seems to be an air accident in China itself. The plane involved may not even be a Su-35, but a J-10, a Chinese-built plane with a record of engine failures. Taiwan actually shooting down a Chinese plane would be an enormously significant, and risky, move. At worst, it could be the spark of a war; at best it would provoke economic and political retaliation from China—even if the Chinese had deliberately violated Taiwanese airspace. There was immediate worry inside the Taiwanese government that the video might have been a deliberate attempt to stir tensions. That seems unlikely. Instead, what happened is a compounding of bullshit on both the Chinese and the Indian sides.
The bullshit started with the Global Times, a Chinese nationalist tabloid run under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party’s newspaper, People’s Daily. That gives Global Times (where I once worked) a credibility it doesn’t deserve; Global Times editorials, often dictated impromptu over the phone by the pugnacious editor Hu Xijin, sometimes presage actual government action but are far more frequently about Hu’s own efforts to drum up traffic or troll the rest of the world. An editorial on Monday called for the Chinese air force to establish regular patrols over Taiwan and a declaration of war if Taiwan acted to defend its airspace. That would be a murderously idiotic move, but it’s highly unlikely that even Hu meant it as a serious suggestion.
But Indian media takes the Global Times extremely seriously. India’s own nationalist newspapers have a dysfunctional relationship with their Chinese counterpart; the Global Times prints some mad bullshit, often insulting India directly. Indian newspapers and websites pick up on it, often describing it as “China” or “the Chinese government” making those statements. The Global Times then writes more pieces in response to them. The cycle continues, and everyone’s traffic rises. (The English-language version of the Global Times isn’t really intended as a plausible commercial venture, but the editors are directly incentivized and rewarded not just for traffic as a whole, but for mentions of pieces in foreign media, whether good or bad.)
The idea of Chinese patrols, then, was already circulating in an Indian online media sphere that’s completely obsessed with China at the moment, following the clash in Galwan Valley that left 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese dead. Relations between New Delhi and Beijing are at a nadir not seen since the 1970s. More border clashes this week, apparently leaving at least one Indian soldier dead, had put Chinese aggression back in headlines again. Online Indian takes on China’s military power tend also to swing from the panicky—the Chinese military can crush India unless India redoubles its efforts—to the cocky: Our brave jawans can defeat the invader!
Wherever the video originated, it dropped into a perfectly receptive atmosphere: an Indian audience primed for news of both Chinese aggression and Chinese failure. The Taiwanese, meanwhile, were left scratching their heads. As Asian geopolitics get hotter and online nationalisms meaner, more such misinformation will spread. Most of it will burn out into nothing—but the bit that doesn’t could be the spark that gets people killed.


foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--After COVID-19, Latin America Braces for ‘Lost Decade’

In 2020 alone , nearly 45 million more Latin Americans will be forced into poverty as a result of the coronavirus pandemic , with tens of millions pushed into extreme poverty , a recent study from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ( ECLAC ) study estimated .
More than one-third of the region ’ s population will face unemployment and food insecurity , threatening dire long-term impacts for Latin America .
While Europe is investing 40 percent of its GDP to fight the economic fallout of the pandemic , Latin American nations are spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do so .
For Alicia Bárcena , ECLAC ’ s executive secretary , COVID-19 could mean another “ lost decade ” for the region .
The Mexican diplomat spoke to Foreign Policy about what this rise in poverty means for Latin Americans and how creative policies such as a basic income , food subsidies , and debt relief could mitigate some of the worst impacts .
This interview has been edited for length and clarity .
Foreign Policy : What are some of the specific economic challenges Latin America will face as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bárcena : We are talking about a lost decade .
That is , the GDP per capita will go back to the levels of 2010 , and we are also talking about a recession .
We are going to recede 14 years in terms of poverty rates .
The unemployment rate is going to climb to 13.5 percent , affecting 44 million people .
And poverty rates are very much connected to this loss of employment and income .
Poverty rates are expected to rise from 186 million people to 231 million people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 630 million ] .
Inequality is another of the situations that we are confronting .
We know that inequality has been growing , has been increasing particularly .
We calculated that eight out of 10 people in the region—and we ’ re talking about 491 million people—will live on an income that is up to three times the poverty line .
And that means that 491 million people will live on under $ 500 a month .
FP : Are there areas or populations that will be particularly hard-hit by the pandemic ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ 8.3 percent of the region ’ s total population as of 2010 ] are highly affected .
And these are populations that are very highly affected right now because they are marginalized .
They don ’ t have access to sanitation or to clean water .
They don ’ t have access also to health services , many of them .
The other areas that we see as very vulnerable are those who are importing food—and basically here we ’ re talking here about the Caribbean countries .
For example , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Antigua and Barbuda 55 percent .
So we do have some vulnerability there .
Then we also have vulnerabilities related to malnutrition and obesity .
This is another big problem in the Caribbean countries , but also in Central America and Mexico .
These problems of malnutrition are related to obesity , which are preconditions of COVID-19 at the end of the day .
FP : The ECLAC has vouched for the implementation of a universal basic income in response to the economic disruption of the pandemic .
How feasible is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are pushing for a basic emergency income for the entire population living in poverty—231 million people—for six months .
The line of poverty in each country is different , but the average is $ 147 per month .
And I think this is feasible .
For six months , it will cost around 2 percent of GDP .
Now , when the basic emergency income is not enough , then we are suggesting a hunger bonus .
That is a complement to the basic emergency income equivalent to 70 percent of the extreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corresponds to $ 67 a month .
And this would cost around 0.52 percent of GDP .
The second one is to extend the payment deadlines and grace periods for loans to micro- , small- and medium-sized enterprises .
And I think this is very , very important , because otherwise it would be impossible for these companies to continue the production of food .
We have calculated that we could support around 4 million , let ’ s say , very small family-based enterprises .
And then we are also suggesting a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in our region have invested between 0.7 to 12 percent of GDP .
If you compare them with Europe , Europe is investing around 40 percent of GDP .
We will never be able to get there , because we don ’ t have the same fiscal space .
So the last proposal we are suggesting here , in addition to these expansionary monetary policies , we are suggesting that there is a need for countries of the region to access concessional funding .
FP : In April , a group of former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increased support from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) .
What sort of help should the region seek from multilateral organizations ?
AB : The IMF has come forward with $ 88 billion for 80 countries worldwide .
In terms of Latin America and the Caribbean , we have received around $ 51 billion for 20 Latin American countries .
But still , there is some space for more financial assistance from the IMF .
One of the things that ECLAC is suggesting is the reallocation of existing special drawing rights .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ there exist around $ 275 billion , which were issued in 2009 .
So that ’ s the No .
1 proposal .
The second one is how to capitalize multilateral credit institutions .
And of course , in our case , we would like that to come to the regional development banks [ Inter-American Development Bank , Central American Bank for Economic Integration , and Caribbean Development Bank ] , which have done a tremendous effort as well .
We do believe that these banks are required to be capitalized further .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ relief .
For the Caribbean countries , we have an initiative that we call Debt Relief for Resilience , in which what we are suggesting is a debt swap for climate adaptation and debt relief .
Many Caribbean countries are highly indebted , they don ’ t have the capacity to borrow any more .
So there has to be concessional treatment , because , as I said , middle-income countries have systemic impacts on the global economy .
And , finally , we are providing some ideas for innovative instruments to link @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , climate-related disasters … if you have a hurricane , your capability to repay your debt has to go for a standstill .
That ’ s the type of thing that we are suggesting .
FP : What are some of the long-term effects of this rise in poverty on Latin Americans ’ daily lives ?
AB : I think there are things that are going to change dramatically .
We believe that there ’ s going to be a big change in consumption patterns .
As I said before , nutrition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay special attention to the digital economy .
This region is far behind in terms of quality tele-education and teleworking , so there is a lot of work that we need to do on that front .
And I think there ’ s going to be a need , an urgent need , for a social and fiscal pact .
There has to be a social pact to establish a new universal regime on social protection , because these pandemics showed us that there is a lot of fragmentation , a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access to health and access to social protection .
I think basically is that there is an urgent need to change the development model in Latin America and the Caribbean .
We have to move toward a model of development that is more inclusive , where equality is the centerpiece .

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foreignpolicy--2020-09-05--Will Schools and Universities Ever Return to Normal?

Millions of schoolchildren and university students are back in class , virtually or otherwise .
Schools are reopening with strict coronavirus rules .
There are many models—from Denmark ’ s “ class bubbles ” that limit interaction with the rest of the school to hybrid curricula that are only partially in-person , to continued remote learning with all its problems for distracted students and stressed-out parents .
Some schools in Europe and East Asia seem to have successfully relaxed social-distancing rules ; others have reopened only to close again as infections spiked .
Reopening comes with risks , but so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they learn less and fall further behind .
Some countries have managed this dilemma better with rigorous testing , strict rules , and clear triggers for when to send students and staff home again .
But with the pandemic still raging and the winter flu season approaching , any reopening remains tenuous .
Universities are struggling even more than schools .
Dorms and student socializing appear to be natural habitats for the virus .
Private universities that are dependent on tuition payments could suffer if parents decide that remote learning isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paying full tuition don ’ t come back .
One thing is certain : The pandemic has unleashed a revolution in digital learning that could disrupt complacent academia forever .
To help us think about the pandemic ’ s effects on education going forward , Foreign Policy asked nine prominent thinkers to look into their crystal balls .
by Michael D. Smith , a professor of information technology and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University The university as we know it will survive—but not with anything like the power it enjoyed before COVID-19 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ comfortably walled off from the pressure to change .
For centuries , a university ’ s power derived from its ability to control access to scarce classroom seats , scarce faculty experts , and scarce job market credentials .
The pandemic has forced the academy to adopt digital technologies that will make these resources abundant by letting students study whenever , wherever , and whatever they desire from faculty experts located around the globe .
At the same time , new online tools allow students to demonstrate their skills with a specificity and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t match .
Today , many in academia see this as a threat to our way of doing business .
And they ’ re right : The changes set off and accelerated by the pandemic are going to look a lot like the painful changes we ’ ve seen in other disrupted industries , such as retail , travel , media , and entertainment , where overconfident firms with overpriced products were decimated by new digital competitors .
For too long , universities have been comfortably walled off from these pressures .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to embrace these changes as an opportunity to fulfill their core mission : creating opportunities for as many students as possible to discover and develop their unique gifts and talents , and use those gifts and talents to make a difference in the world .
Return to In-Person Schooling as Quickly as Possible by Ludger Woessmann , an economics professor at the University of Munich and the director of the Ifo Center for the Economics of Education As parents of children affected by school closures will know , distance learning has not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In our recent survey of over 1,000 parents of German school children , we found that the time students spent on school and homework was halved from 7.4 to only 3.6 hours per day , while the time spent watching TV , playing computer games , or using mobile phones increased to 5.2 hours per day .
More than a third of students only studied two hours or less .
We also found that girls coped better with distance learning than boys .
Contrary to the widespread belief that better-educated parents were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learning environment , the drop in learning time was just as steep for their children as for those of less-educated parents .
The real difference was that students who were already weak performers in school—regardless of socioeconomic background—switched even more time from learning to gaming than their stronger peers .
We also found that girls coped better with distance learning than boys .
School closures will have real costs in the long term .
So far , the average student missed the equivalent of one-third of a year of learning and can expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 3 percent ; this cohort ’ s lower education attainment means that the economy as a whole will forgo 1.5 percent of GDP .
There are two urgent lessons in this .
First , we must do everything we can to return to in-person schooling as quickly as possible—with the necessary precautions .
Where that ’ s not possible , there must be a full schedule of live online instruction—merely sending out homework by email has clearly failed for too many students .
Second , we must initiate a major effort to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their future development will be seriously harmed .
Schools Can Reopen Safely , but Only With Strict Protocols and Plans by Jennifer Nuzzo , an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University ’ s Bloomberg School of Public Health In the United States and other countries , schools have started going back to in-person instruction .
From these experiences , we can draw several key lessons .
It can be helpful for schools to create bubbles , which are fixed groups of students and staff who only interact with each other .
First : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ students and staff live matters .
If there are high or increasing numbers of infections in school feeder communities , students or staff may be infected and bring that infection to school .
Communities with a high level of transmission may have to close other high-risk establishments , such as restaurants and bars , in order to bring case numbers down enough for schools to open .
Second : Safety protocols are important .
Even in communities where the level of illness is low , there is still a chance that someone may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and come to school .
That ’ s where interventions such as requiring masks , maintaining physical distance between students and staff , improving ventilation , and staying outdoors as much as possible play a role .
Third : It is important that schools plan for cases to occur and be ready to respond .
Schools should have clear plans defining the threshold for closing , how long students remain at home , and—crucially—triggers for reopening .
It can be quite helpful to create bubbles , which are fixed groups of students and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with each other .
If someone in the bubble turns out to be infected , the number of people who have possibly been exposed is limited .
This system—first introduced at scale when Denmark reopened its schools in May—also aids contact-tracing efforts .
Finally , it is important to keep in mind that what happens outside the classroom can undermine even the best safety plans .
Evidence from school reopenings around the world has shown that social and other gatherings outside of schools are an important path of transmission .
We need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not fully adhere to social distancing recommendations outside of school .
Developing Countries Have Been Hit Especially Hard by Devesh Kapur , a professor of South Asian studies and the director of Asia programs at Johns Hopkins University ’ s School of Advanced International Studies There is little doubt that COVID-19 will have severe impacts on vulnerable populations—the only question is the duration and intensity .
With about 260 million children in school and nearly 40 million students in higher education , India was already facing daunting challenges in educating its population to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statutory right to schooling to age 14 was only introduced in 2009 .
However , the Indian education system continues to be plagued by poor leaning outcomes and high dropout rates .
Enrollment in grades 11 to 12 is still just 57 percent .
The education clock has been turned back for hundreds of millions of young Indians .
Against this backdrop , the disruptions stemming from COVID-19 are bound to lead to Indian students falling even further behind .
Replacing in-person learning with online teaching is challenging enough in rich countries ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are even bigger obstacles .
Despite a massive increase in internet and smartphone penetration in recent years , about 70 percent of Indians in rural areas—where almost two-thirds of the country ’ s 1.3 billion people live—still lack digital access , making in-person education vital .
Private-sector innovation is driving sharp increases in internet use , and the government has launched an ambitious project to connect India ’ s more than 600,000 villages to a fiber-optic network within the next three years .
But these developments will be too late for today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of TV and radio for teaching purposes might fill some of the learning gaps , it is all but certain that the education clock has been turned back for hundreds of millions of young Indians .
by Salvatore Babones , an adjunct scholar at the Centre for Independent Studies and an associate professor at the University of Sydney The pandemic has put an abrupt brake on international student mobility .
When the time comes to get things started again , the deteriorating relationship between China and the West isn ’ t going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the world ’ s outbound international students , and unlike most Western students who might do a semester or two abroad to enrich their undergraduate experience , Chinese international students tend to do entire degrees .
That has made tuition-paying students from China a major revenue source for institutions such as the University of Sydney ( where 31 percent of the entire student body comes from China ) , the University of Toronto ( around 14 percent ) , and the University of Illinois ( around 11 percent ) .
Western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could face an existential challenge .
Whether or not Chinese students will return in similar numbers after the crisis is anyone ’ s guess .
Whether or not China will let them is another issue entirely .
Due to the lingering effects of its one-child policy , China is now experiencing shrinking numbers of high school graduates .
Following in the footsteps of Japan , South Korea , and Taiwan , it faces a future of empty classrooms and bankrupt universities .
Compound that by China ’ s need to preserve foreign currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the yuan , and all the incentives are aligned for China to reduce student mobility .
China will continue to be happy for its graduate students to receive elite scientific training and access to cutting-edge technology abroad .
But it is increasingly likely to keep its impressionable young undergraduates at home .
For Western universities dependent on their tuition , that could turn into an existential challenge .
To Overcome the Pandemic , Build a Better Education System by Arne Duncan , a former U.S. secretary of education in the Barack Obama administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Collective The mismanagement of this pandemic by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has led to the worst public health crisis in a century , the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression , and chaos in the U.S. education system .
But the long-term effects of this pandemic on American students are up to us .
We must act quickly—not only to overcome the immediate challenges exposed and exacerbated by this crisis , but also to rebuild the education system so it delivers better results for all our kids .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Every student and teacher must receive the resources and support they need to learn and teach online .
First , we must invest in schools in low-income communities to prevent disproportionate funding and staffing cuts from setting back students in these communities for many years to come .
Second , given the current need for remote education , every student and teacher must receive the resources and support they need to learn and teach online .
This requires closing the digital divide that widens the inequities between the haves and have-nots .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national tutoring initiative .
The U.S. federal government , in partnership with the private sector , should mobilize millions of college students , recent graduates , and retirees to serve as tutors for students who need to make up lost learning time .
These are just a few proposals , and more are needed .
But if we act quickly , get this virus under control , and make the right investments , we can not only mitigate the worst effects of this pandemic on our students but also unlock new opportunities for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
by Andreas Schleicher , the director for education and skills at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ) At the peak of the pandemic , 1.5 billion students were locked out of their schools .
Despite efforts at remote teaching , these students experienced significant learning losses .
That is bad enough— yet some of the reopening strategies being implemented today will make these students ’ learning losses even greater .
Together , these losses will follow students into the labor market , and both students and their societies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Despite efforts at remote teaching , these students experienced significant learning losses .
While it is hard to predict exactly how school closures will affect students ’ future development , past research gives us some ideas on the effect of school attendance on students ’ later chances on the labor market and a country ’ s economic development .
The economists Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann recently looked at the effects of pandemic-related school closures on students in first through 12th grade .
Estimating that their learning losses so far are equivalent to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average and assuming that schools return to normal this fall , they project long-run economic costs ranging from $ 504 billion in South Africa to $ 14.2 trillion in the United States to $ 15.5 trillion in China .
If the disruption continues into the new school year , as is already the case in many countries , these losses will grow proportionately .
The most troubling aspect is that the pandemic has amplified the many inequities in our education systems—including unequal access to the computers and broadband internet needed for online education @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environments for learning , and our failure to attract talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms .
Children from privileged backgrounds not only have strong support from their parents to help them focus on learning , but they also have found their way around closed school doors to alternative learning opportunities such as private tutors and so-called learning pods .
Those from disadvantaged backgrounds have remained shut out when their schools shut down and are unlikely to close the widening gap .
Now More Than Ever , Jobs Must Come First by Mona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the head of global social responsibility at McKinsey The prospects for graduates have radically worsened .
Already , an estimated 400 million people have lost their jobs around the world , joining the 200 million who were already unemployed .
The prospects for graduates have radically worsened .
That makes the transition from education to employment even more unreliable than it has already been .
Traditionally , it is only at the end of their education that students—sometimes with help from their learning institutions—search for job opportunities .
For many , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forgone income , and disillusionment with education .
The pandemic will force universities , vocational colleges , providers of professional training , and other postsecondary institutions to flip the sequence .
People need jobs now , and they won ’ t be willing to invest in education without that promise .
They will demand programs with the express purpose of preparing graduates to enter jobs .
Key ingredients include modular and profession-specific program design , as well as a clear understanding of where the jobs are in a rapidly shifting economy .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find employment and earn an income means that program length will have to be measured in weeks rather than years .
It also means that programs should be held accountable for delivering employment outcomes .
There is good news in this .
This transformation could give us the opportunity to rebuild education systems to actually yield employment , financial well-being , and personal dignity .
Higher Education Will Be All Right—After the Disaster by Dick Startz , a professor of economics at the University of California , Santa Barbara COVID-19 is a short-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Long-term ?
Not so much—although risks do exist .
In the first half of 2020 , revenue from room and board , campus bookstores , athletic tickets , and the like plummeted .
Much more important is how many tuition-paying students actually show up this semester .
Especially at public colleges , how many high-tuition-paying out-of-state and international students will be missing this year ?
And even as revenue is lost , switching to online teaching requires significant investment in equipment , cloud services , and tech support .
Some smaller colleges that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insolvency are going to go under .
This approaches a crisis for most schools .
Some smaller colleges that were already teetering on the edge of insolvency are going to go under .
In the longer run , nothing much will change about desires for higher education—so demand will return to normal .
Nothing much will change about the cost of delivering higher education—so supply will return to normal .
Online instruction might grow as a niche product , but for most purposes human contact is superior .
In a few years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usual state of at least getting by .
But there are two threats for higher education in the United States .
In the Great Recession , U.S. states drastically reduced financial support for higher education—and that support never recovered .
If this happens again , public universities will have a permanent problem .
In the last decade , colleges have adjusted in part by seeking out high-paying international students .
This is the second risk : If international students shift to schools in Australia and Europe because of U.S. immigration restrictions , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subsidized American students .
There is certainly trouble today—and probably for a bit longer .
But long-term consequences can be avoided if state governments return to supporting higher education , and if the U.S. federal government returns to the country ’ s traditional welcoming attitude toward foreign students .

Arne Duncan, Andreas Schleicher, Mona Mourshed, Jennifer Nuzzo, Ludger Woessmann, Salvatore Babones, Devesh Kapur, Michael D. Smith and Dick Startz

Millions of schoolchildren and university students are back in class, virtually or otherwise. Schools are reopening with strict coronavirus rules. There are many models—from Denmark’s “class bubbles” that limit interaction with the rest of the school to hybrid curricula that are only partially in-person, to continued remote learning with all its problems for distracted students and stressed-out parents. Some schools in Europe and East Asia seem to have successfully relaxed social-distancing rules; others have reopened only to close again as infections spiked.
Universities are struggling even more than schools. Dorms and student socializing seem to be natural habitats for the virus. Private universities that are dependent on tuition payments could suffer if parents decide that remote learning isn’t worth the exorbitant cost—or if Chinese students paying full tuition don’t come back. One thing is certain: COVID-19 has unleashed a revolution in digital learning that could disrupt academia forever.
To help us think about the pandemic’s effects on education going forward, Foreign Policy asked nine prominent thinkers to look into their crystal balls.—Stefan Theil, deputy editor
Technology Will Finally Disrupt Complacent Universities
By Michael D. Smith, a professor of information technology and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University
The university as we know it will survive—but not with anything like the power it enjoyed before COVID-19.
For too long, universities have been comfortably walled off from the pressure to change.
For centuries, a university’s power derived from its ability to control access to scarce classroom seats, scarce faculty experts, and scarce job market credentials. The pandemic has forced the academy to adopt digital technologies that will make these resources abundant by letting students study whenever, wherever, and whatever they desire from faculty experts located around the globe. At the same time, new online tools allow students to demonstrate their skills with a specificity and clarity that college diplomas and transcripts can’t match.
Today, many in academia see this as a threat to our way of doing business. And they’re right: The changes set off and accelerated by the pandemic are going to look a lot like the painful changes we’ve seen in other disrupted industries, such as retail, travel, media, and entertainment, where overconfident firms with overpriced products were decimated by new digital competitors. For too long, universities have been comfortably walled off from these pressures.
Instead of panicking, however, educators need to embrace these changes as an opportunity to fulfill their core mission: creating opportunities for as many students as possible to discover and develop their unique gifts and talents, and use those gifts and talents to make a difference in the world.
Return to In-Person Schooling as Quickly as Possible
By Ludger Woessmann, an economics professor at the University of Munich and the director of the Ifo Center for the Economics of Education
As parents of children affected by school closures will know, remote learning has not been a good substitute for in-person instruction. When we recently surveyed over 1,000 parents of German school children, we found that the time students spent on school and homework was halved from 7.4 to only 3.6 hours per day, while the time spent watching TV, playing computer games, or using mobile phones increased to 5.2 hours per day. More than a third of students only studied two hours or less.
We also found that girls coped better with distance learning than boys.
Contrary to the widespread belief that better-educated parents were better able to provide a supportive home learning environment, the drop in learning time was just as steep for their children as for those of less-educated parents. The real difference was that students who were already weak performers in school—regardless of socioeconomic background—switched even more time from learning to gaming than their stronger peers. We also found that girls coped better with distance learning than boys.
School closures will have real costs in the long term. So far, the average student missed the equivalent of one-third of a year of learning and can expect their future income to be reduced by about 3 percent; this cohort’s lower education attainment means that the economy as a whole will forgo 1.5 percent of GDP.
There are two urgent lessons in this. First, we must do everything we can to return to in-person schooling as quickly as possible—with the necessary precautions. Where that’s not possible, there must be a full schedule of live online instruction—merely sending out homework by email has clearly failed for too many students. Second, we must initiate a major effort to remediate students’ learning losses, or their future development will be seriously harmed.
Schools Can Reopen Safely, but Only With Strict Protocols and Plans
By Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health
In the United States and other countries, schools have started going back to in-person instruction. From these experiences, we can draw several key lessons.
It can be helpful for schools to create bubbles, which are fixed groups of students and staff who only interact with each other.
First: The level of illness in communities in which students and staff live matters. If there are high or increasing numbers of infections in school feeder communities, students or staff may be infected and bring that infection to school. Communities with a high level of transmission may have to close other high-risk establishments, such as restaurants and bars, in order to bring case numbers down enough for schools to open.
Second: Safety protocols are important. Even in communities where the level of illness is low, there is still a chance that someone may be infected, not know it, and come to school. That’s where interventions such as requiring masks, maintaining physical distance between students and staff, improving ventilation, and staying outdoors as much as possible play a role.
Third: It is important that schools plan for cases to occur and be ready to respond. Schools should have clear plans defining the threshold for closing, how long students remain at home, and—crucially—triggers for reopening. It can be quite helpful to create bubbles, which are fixed groups of students and staff within the school who only interact with each other. If someone in the bubble turns out to be infected, the number of people who have possibly been exposed is limited. This system—first introduced at scale when Denmark reopened its schools in May—also aids contact-tracing efforts.
Finally, it is important to keep in mind that what happens outside the classroom can undermine even the best safety plans. Evidence from school reopenings around the world has shown that social and other gatherings outside of schools are an important path of transmission. We need to be realistic and plan for people to not fully adhere to social distancing recommendations outside of school.
Developing Countries Have Been Hit Especially Hard
By Devesh Kapur, a professor of South Asian studies and the director of Asia programs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies
There is little doubt that COVID-19 will have severe impacts on vulnerable populations—the only question is the duration and intensity. With about 260 million children in school and nearly 40 million students in higher education, India was already facing daunting challenges in educating its population to participate in the 21st-century economy. A statutory right to schooling to age 14 was only introduced in 2009. However, the Indian education system continues to be plagued by poor leaning outcomes and high dropout rates. Enrollment in grades 11 to 12 is still just 57 percent.
The education clock has been turned back for hundreds of millions of young Indians.
Against this backdrop, the disruptions stemming from COVID-19 are bound to lead to Indian students falling even further behind. Replacing in-person learning with online teaching is challenging enough in rich countries; in developing nations such as India, there are even bigger obstacles. Despite a massive increase in internet and smartphone penetration in recent years, about 70 percent of Indians in rural areas—where almost two-thirds of the country’s 1.3 billion people live—still lack digital access, making in-person education vital.
Private-sector innovation is driving sharp increases in internet use, and the government has launched an ambitious project to connect India’s more than 600,000 villages to a fiber-optic network within the next three years. But these developments will be too late for today’s crisis. While greater use of TV and radio for teaching purposes might fill some of the learning gaps, it is all but certain that the education clock has been turned back for hundreds of millions of young Indians.
The End of International Education?
By Salvatore Babones, an adjunct scholar at the Centre for Independent Studies and an associate professor at the University of Sydney
The pandemic has put an abrupt brake on international student mobility. When the time comes to get things started again, the deteriorating relationship between China and the West isn’t going to help. China accounts for nearly 20 percent of the world’s outbound international students, and unlike most Western students who might do a semester or two abroad to enrich their undergraduate experience, Chinese international students tend to do entire degrees. That has made tuition-paying students from China a major revenue source for institutions such as the University of Sydney (where 31 percent of the entire student body comes from China), the University of Toronto (around 14 percent), and the University of Illinois (around 11 percent).
Western universities dependent on Chinese students’ tuition could face an existential challenge.
Whether or not Chinese students will return in similar numbers after the crisis is anyone’s guess. Whether or not China will let them is another issue entirely. Due to the lingering effects of its one-child policy, China is now experiencing shrinking numbers of high school graduates. Following in the footsteps of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, it faces a future of empty classrooms and bankrupt universities. Compound that by China’s need to preserve foreign currency in order to maintain the value of the yuan, and all the incentives are aligned for China to reduce student mobility.
China will continue to be happy for its graduate students to receive elite scientific training and access to cutting-edge technology abroad. But it is increasingly likely to keep its impressionable young undergraduates at home. For Western universities dependent on their tuition, that could turn into an existential challenge.
To Overcome the Pandemic, Build a Better Education System
By Arne Duncan, a former U.S. secretary of education in the Barack Obama administration and currently a managing partner at Emerson Collective
The mismanagement of this pandemic by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has led to the worst public health crisis in a century, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and chaos in the U.S. education system. But the long-term effects of this pandemic on American students are up to us. We must act quickly—not only to overcome the immediate challenges exposed and exacerbated by this crisis, but also to rebuild the education system so it delivers better results for all our kids. Here are three ways to do that:
Every student and teacher must receive the resources and support they need to learn and teach online.
First, we must invest in schools in low-income communities to prevent disproportionate funding and staffing cuts from setting back students in these communities for many years to come.
Second, given the current need for remote education, every student and teacher must receive the resources and support they need to learn and teach online. This requires closing the digital divide that widens the inequities between the haves and have-nots.
And third, we should urgently create a national tutoring initiative. The U.S. federal government, in partnership with the private sector, should mobilize millions of college students, recent graduates, and retirees to serve as tutors for students who need to make up lost learning time.
These are just a few proposals, and more are needed. But if we act quickly, get this virus under control, and make the right investments, we can not only mitigate the worst effects of this pandemic on our students but also unlock new opportunities for students—now, and for years to come.
COVID-19 Has Amplified Inequality in Education
By Andreas Schleicher, the director for education and skills at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
At the peak of the pandemic, 1.5 billion students were locked out of their schools. Despite efforts at remote teaching, these students experienced significant learning losses. That is bad enough— yet some of the reopening strategies being implemented today will make these students’ learning losses even greater. Together, these losses will follow students into the labor market, and both students and their societies will feel the adverse economic results.
Despite efforts at remote teaching, these students experienced significant learning losses.
While it is hard to predict exactly how school closures will affect students’ future development, past research gives us some ideas on the effect of school attendance on students’ later chances on the labor market and a country’s economic development. The economists Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann recently looked at the effects of pandemic-related school closures on students in first through 12th grade. Estimating that their learning losses so far are equivalent to missing one-third of a school year on average and assuming that schools return to normal this fall, they project long-run economic costs ranging from $504 billion in South Africa to $14.2 trillion in the United States to $15.5 trillion in China. If the disruption continues into the new school year, as is already the case in many countries, these losses will grow proportionately.
The most troubling aspect is that the pandemic has amplified the many inequities in our education systems—including unequal access to the computers and broadband internet needed for online education, the widespread lack of supportive home environments for learning, and our failure to attract talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms. Children from privileged backgrounds not only have strong support from their parents to help them focus on learning, but they also have found their way around closed school doors to alternative learning opportunities such as private tutors and so-called learning pods. Those from disadvantaged backgrounds have remained shut out when their schools shut down and are unlikely to close the widening gap.
Now More Than Ever, Jobs Must Come First
By Mona Mourshed, the founding CEO of Generation
The prospects for graduates have radically worsened. Already, an estimated 400 million people have lost their jobs around the world, joining the 200 million who were already unemployed.
The prospects for graduates have radically worsened.
That makes the transition from education to employment even more unreliable than it has already been. Traditionally, it is only at the end of their education that students—sometimes with help from their learning institutions—search for job opportunities. For many, the predictable consequence is unemployment or underemployment, forgone income, and disillusionment with education.
The pandemic will force universities, vocational colleges, providers of professional training, and other postsecondary institutions to flip the sequence. People need jobs now, and they won’t be willing to invest in education without that promise. They will demand programs with the express purpose of preparing graduates to enter jobs. Key ingredients include modular and profession-specific program design, as well as a clear understanding of where the jobs are in a rapidly shifting economy. The immediate need for millions of people to find employment and earn an income means that program length will have to be measured in weeks rather than years. It also means that programs should be held accountable for delivering employment outcomes.
There is good news in this. This transformation could give us the opportunity to rebuild education systems to actually yield employment, financial well-being, and personal dignity.
Higher Education Will Be All Right—After the Disaster
By Dick Startz, a professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara
COVID-19 is a short-term financial disaster for colleges and universities. Long-term? Not so much—although risks do exist.
In the first half of 2020, revenue from room and board, campus bookstores, athletic tickets, and the like plummeted. Much more important is how many tuition-paying students actually show up this semester. Especially at public colleges, how many high-tuition-paying out-of-state and international students will be missing this year? And even as revenue is lost, switching to online teaching requires significant investment in equipment, cloud services, and tech support.
Some smaller colleges that were already teetering on the edge of insolvency are going to go under.
This approaches a crisis for most schools. Some smaller colleges that were already teetering on the edge of insolvency are going to go under.
In the longer run, nothing much will change about desires for higher education—so demand will return to normal. Nothing much will change about the cost of delivering higher education—so supply will return to normal. Online instruction might grow as a niche product, but for most purposes human contact is superior. In a few years, college finances should be back to their usual state of at least getting by.
But there are two threats for higher education in the United States. In the Great Recession, U.S. states drastically reduced financial support for higher education—and that support never recovered. If this happens again, public universities will have a permanent problem. In the last decade, colleges have adjusted in part by seeking out high-paying international students. This is the second risk: If international students shift to schools in Australia and Europe because of U.S. immigration restrictions, so will their tuition payments, which have subsidized American students.
There is certainly trouble today—and probably for a bit longer. But long-term consequences can be avoided if state governments return to supporting higher education, and if the U.S. federal government returns to the country’s traditional welcoming attitude toward foreign students.
This article is part of Foreign Policy’s ongoing series about the world after the COVID-19 pandemic. Other installments include:
How the Global Order Will Be Changed Forever by John Allen, Nicholas Burns, Laurie Garrett, Richard N. Haass, G. John Ikenberry, Kishore Mahbubani, Shivshankar Menon, Robin Niblett, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Shannon K. O’Neil, Kori Schake, Stephen M. Walt
How the Economy Will Look After the Pandemic by Joseph E. Stiglitz, Robert J. Shiller, Gita Gopinath, Carmen M. Reinhart, Adam Posen, Eswar Prasad, Adam Tooze, Laura D’Andrea Tyson, Kishore Mahbubani
How Urban Life Will Be Transformed by Richard Florida, Edward Glaeser, Maimunah Mohd Sharif, Kiran Bedi, Thomas J. Campanella, Chan Heng Chee, Dan Doctoroff, Bruce Katz, Rebecca Katz, Joel Kotkin, Robert Muggah, Janette Sadik-Khan
The Future of Government by James Crabtree, Robert D. Kaplan, Robert Muggah, Kumi Naidoo, Shannon K. O’Neil, Adam Posen, Kenneth Roth, Bruce Schneier, Stephen M. Walt, Alexandra Wrage
The Future of Travel by James Fallows, Vivek Wadhwa, Pico Iyer, Rolf Potts, Elizabeth Becker, James Crabtree, Alexandre de Juniac
The Future of Entertainment, Culture, and Sports by Audrey Azoulay, Rahul Bhatia, Rick Cordella, Mark C. Hanson, Baltasar Kormakur, Jonathan Kuntz, David Clay Large, James S. Snyder


foreignpolicy--2020-09-05--Our Top Weekend Reads

Our Top Weekend Reads

This week , Foreign Policy interviewed Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti about his hopes for talks with Serbia on the eve of the two-day meeting at the White House .
Meanwhile , Myanmar ’ s response to rising coronavirus cases in the conflict-racked state of Rakhine may fall short of what is necessary to avert a public health disaster .
And a fake video of a Chinese plane being shot down in Taiwan went viral in India on Friday , revealing how dangerous nationalist fantasies and misinformation have become in Asia .
1 .
Kosovo PM : ‘ There Is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the eve of the White House peace talks between Serbia and Kosovo , Foreign Policy interviewed Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti .
The only way forward , Hoti said , is for Serbia to finally recognize Kosovo ’ s independence , Foreign Policy ’ s Amy Mackinnon writes .
2 .
To Fight the Coronavirus , Myanmar Needs a Cease-Fire in Rakhine Coronavirus cases are rising alongside civilian casualties and displacement in Myanmar ’ s state of Rakhine , where government troops have clashed with the rebel Arakan Army since late 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act quickly , Rakhine could soon face a public health disaster , Kyaw Hsan Hlaing and Emily Fishbein write .
3 .
Voltaire Spread Darkness , Not Enlightenment .
France Should Stop Worshipping Him .
For France , Voltaire was a lodestar of the Enlightenment .
But Voltaire was an unapologetic racist , and it ’ s time for the French to reject philosophers of his ilk , Nabila Ramdani writes .
4 .
Indian Social Media Goes Nuts Over Fake Claim of Su-35 Shootdown A video purporting to show a Chinese plane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Indian social media on Friday .
The story is fake , but it shows how entangled—and dangerous—nationalist fantasies are becoming in Asia , Foreign Policy ’ s James Palmer writes .
A confidential report obtained by Foreign Policy reveals that most Taliban prisoners released under an agreement signed by the Islamist group and the United States have continued to fight to overthrow the U.S.-backed Afghan government , Lynne O ’ Donnell writes .

This week, Foreign Policy interviewed Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti about his hopes for talks with Serbia on the eve of the two-day meeting at the White House.
This week, Foreign Policy interviewed Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti about his hopes for talks with Serbia on the eve of the two-day meeting at the White House.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s response to rising coronavirus cases in the conflict-racked state of Rakhine may fall short of what is necessary to avert a public health disaster.
And a fake video of a Chinese plane being shot down in Taiwan went viral in India on Friday, revealing how dangerous nationalist fantasies and misinformation have become in Asia.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top weekend reads.
Prime Minister of Kosovo Avdullah Hoti
On the eve of the White House peace talks between Serbia and Kosovo, Foreign Policy interviewed Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti. The only way forward, Hoti said, is for Serbia to finally recognize Kosovo’s independence, Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon writes.
People prepare dinner at the Shitthaung camp for displaced people in Mrauk U, myanmar,
Coronavirus cases are rising alongside civilian casualties and displacement in Myanmar’s state of Rakhine, where government troops have clashed with the rebel Arakan Army since late 2018. If the government doesn’t act quickly, Rakhine could soon face a public health disaster, Kyaw Hsan Hlaing and Emily Fishbein write.
French President Emmanuel Macron walks into a room with a relief bust of the French author and philosopher Voltaire during a visit to the newly restored Château de Voltaire à Ferney in eastern France, on May 31, 2018.
For France, Voltaire was a lodestar of the Enlightenment. But Voltaire was an unapologetic racist, and it’s time for the French to reject philosophers of his ilk, Nabila Ramdani writes.
A Su-35 fighter jet
A video purporting to show a Chinese plane being shot down in Taiwan went viral on Indian social media on Friday. The story is fake, but it shows how entangled—and dangerous—nationalist fantasies are becoming in Asia, Foreign Policy’s James Palmer writes.
Taliban prisoners being released outside Kabul
5. Defying Peace Deal, Freed Taliban Return to Battlefield
A confidential report obtained by Foreign Policy reveals that most Taliban prisoners released under an agreement signed by the Islamist group and the United States have continued to fight to overthrow the U.S.-backed Afghan government, Lynne O’Donnell writes.