foreignpolicy--2020-06-02--Incels Are Radicalized and Dangerous. But Are They Terrorists?

Ashley Noell Arzaga , just seven years older than her attacker , died on her way to hospital .
The spa ’ s owner lost a finger wrenching away the weapon .
The alleged attacker , who remained mostly silent during the rampage , was arrested at the scene .
The attack garnered some media attention at the time , but there was scant detail available .
The alleged assailant can not be named , as Canadian law prohibits identifying youths in the criminal justice system .
But it rocketed back into the news on May 19 , after police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and attempted murder charges , they would be prosecuting the crime as an act of terrorism .
Investigators “ determined that this crime was in fact one in which the accused was inspired by the … movement commonly known as INCEL ( involuntary celibate ) , ” according to a statement from the Toronto Police Service and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police .
It is the first time Canada has prosecuted a terrorism-related charge not tied to Islamic extremism and seemingly the first time in the world a country has pursued terrorism charges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s an imperfect solution .
Incels are a diverse and loose-knit movement drawn together by two things : a burning misogyny and a nearly cultlike belief that sex is a necessity that should be guaranteed to young men .
That has manifested , at times , into attacks on symbolically relevant soft targets : a street full of people enjoying the spring weather ; a school full of young adults ; and , in February , a massage parlor—a gray-market sex work establishment .
A stabbing attack in Sudbury , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and her infant daughter injured , while a shooting at an Glendale , Arizona , mall on May 20 critically injured one man and sent a 16-year-old girl to hospital .
Over the past six years , more than two dozen people have been killed by members of incel communities .
National security and police agencies are growing increasingly concerned by the threat .
Among incel forums and communities online , an internal struggle is going on .
Some , already struggling with poor self-esteem and mental health issues , condemn the attacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Others , however , are emboldened by and celebrating the mass killings that have taken place in recent years , raising the possibility that there will be more attacks to come .
Canada is unfortunately very familiar with the threat posed by the incel movement .
The term itself originated from a Canadian woman hoping to describe—and thus help—lonely young men frustrated by their own virginity .
Since then , she has watched in disgust as it has come to describe a movement that is virulently misogynistic and often avowedly racist , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 , a rented cargo van plowed through pedestrians along a 1.5-mile stretch of Toronto ’ s bustling Yonge Street , running through red lights and onto sidewalks .
Ten people died in the attack .
Police arrested the driver , Alek Minassian , who now stands accused of 26 charges of first-degree and attempted murder—his trial was scheduled to begin this spring but has been postponed until later this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic .
A message posted to Minassian ’ s Facebook shortly before the attack began read : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , wishing to speak to Sgt 4chan please .
C23249161 .
The Incel Rebellion has already begun !
We will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys !
All hail the Supreme Gentleman Elliot Rodger !
” The incel community is a loose movement well versed in irony , memes , and inside references , similar to the online white supremacist and neo-Nazi movements .
The message may look like gibberish to many , but in it are a series of references to the incel community—a loose movement that is also well versed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , similar to the online white supremacist and neo-Nazi movements .
Distinguishing truth from deliberate “ shitposting ” in such manifestos can be tough , but the core ideology remains .
It ’ s hard to ascribe a single ideology to the incel movement , but broadly speaking the denizens of incel message boards and communities—of which 4chan was an early meeting point—rage against men and women who are capable of finding partners .
They are the “ Chads ” and “ Stacys.
” Incels believe they are particularly excluded from the dating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Taking the “ black pill ” ( in homage to both The Matrix and the so-called men ’ s rights movement ) means to recognize the supposed unfairness of the Western social structure .
Boiled down , it means waking up to how society has deprived them of sex .
For many , the vision of sexual life in the modern West is one in which only a small amount of men scoop up desirable , youthful partners and where other men must settle for , at best , second-rate partners ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-feminism and a nostalgia for an imaginary past of enforced sexual partnerships .
In and of itself , such a movement would be odious , and it might inspire domestic violence—some incels , despite the name , are in relationships but believe that their partners do not match the qualities they “ deserve , ” such as virginity .
But it wouldn ’ t be a national security threat .
For some time , that ’ s what it was .
But , as Minassian recognized in his social media post , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ member of some early incel communities , launched a spree attack in Isla Vista , California , on May 23 , 2014 .
A manifesto found after Rodger ’ s rampage ended , which left six people dead , laid out a deeply misogynistic worldview .
The themes in that screed—blaming women for ignoring him , other men for finding partners while he remained alone , and society at large for perpetuating a system that left him lonely—are central to the incel movement .
On the message boards where incels gather , Rodger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ users ’ avatars , and he is normally referred to by the shorthand “ ER.
” Since Rodger ’ s spree killing , incel communities have grappled with the violent aspect of their own movement .
Some have expressly disavowed violence and have committed to self-improvement rather than self-destruction .
Reactions to attacks like the two in Toronto range from outright encouragement to a contention that such incidents are understandable but not justified , while others have tried to argue that these are false flags , organized by police as an excuse to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks among the incel community range from outright encouragement to a contention that such incidents are understandable but not justified .
Others have tried to argue that they are false flags , organized by police as an excuse to crack down on incels .
The danger of lone-wolf attacks , of course , is that they only take one person .
Chris Harper-Mercer cited Rodger in a manifesto discovered after his 2015 shooting spree at an Oregon college killed nine people .
Scott Beierle , who attacked a Tallahassee , Florida , yoga @ @ @ @ @ @ @ praising Rodger and identifying with the movement .
Last June , Brian Clyde was shot and killed by officers after attacking a federal building in Dallas—his online posts show he was well versed in the incel world , and his family believes it was a case of suicide by cop .
Alexander Stavropoulos was arrested in Sudbury last June after stabbing a woman in a parking lot and trying to attack her infant daughter—later telling police he was “ out to murder a little white girl.
” In an agreed statement of facts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as an incel and said he drew inspiration from Minassian ’ s alleged crimes .
The FBI arrested 33-year-old Carl Bennington in April on cyberstalking charges , after harassing a litany of women online—in some cases , threatening rape and murder .
Investigators found he was active in incel communities .
Last month , just before the six-year anniversary of Rodger ’ s attack , a mass shooting at an Arizona mall sent three to the hospital .
Police said 20-year-old Armando Hernandez Jr. went to the mall with the intention of attacking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an interview with the suspect , that Hernandez identified as an incel and “ was targeting couples.
” All told , dozens are dead and maimed at the hands of perpetrators who have , to varying degrees , been part of incel communities online .
National security agencies are waking up to the threat .
This year ’ s annual report from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service , one of Canada ’ s main anti-terrorism agencies , singled out “ gender-driven violence ” as an emerging current of violent extremism—it specifically mentioned the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the stabbing attack in Sudbury .
“ Once viewed as a criminal threat by many law enforcement authorities , ” a January report from the Texas Department of Public Safety described .
“ Incels are now seen as a growing domestic terrorism concern due to the ideological nature of recent Incel attacks internationally , nationwide , and in Texas.
” The Texas report even contends that “ this particular threat could soon match , or potentially eclipse , the level of lethalness demonstrated by other domestic terrorism types.
” While the security concern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misogynistic violence is hardly a new phenomenon .
In 1989 , Marc Lépine targeted female students at the École Polytechnique in Montreal .
In a manifesto , he railed against women and feminism , listing women he regretted not being able to kill .
Lépine , though , did not have the benefit of the internet to share his warped worldview .
He didn ’ t have a community egging him on .
Lépine , though , lives on in these communities .
His face is a common profile picture for denizens of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mirrors the evolution of the incel movement itself .
The web forums that comprise the broader incel community have moved and relocated over the years , as they have been taken offline and deplatformed by their web hosts—r/Incels , one of the largest gatherings , was banned by Reddit in 2017 after amassing some 40,000 members .
Today , Incels.co and Incels.net are the primary gathering points .
On those forums , users are quick to argue that there is no incel movement or ideology , often when discussing their alleged culpability in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the thousands of posts belies a common set of grievances—and a common set of solutions .
Based on their self-reported histories , many of the incels were bullied in school , while some appear to still be in high school .
They report low self-esteem , depression , and an inability to make friends .
They obsess over their weight , height , and looks .
While other online communities may encourage each other , incels often propagate the shaming and bullying they claim to see in the outside world .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of themselves , only to be told how hideous and undesirable they are by their fellow incels .
Attackers and their online cheerleaders argue that violence will force a reckoning that leads to a misogynist utopia .
It ’ s from there that things turn particularly ugly .
Incels point the blame for their inability to find girlfriends on a supposed moral degradation of Western society .
They argue sexual liberation has created a society that is unfair to young men like them—instead privileging the “ Chads , ” “ Stacys , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Much of this worldview seems heavily informed by pornography .
Incels believe that there is a reckoning coming and that society will need to revert back to a more patriarchal society where men like them can expect partners .
Attackers and their online cheerleaders argue , like other accelerationists before them with different ideologies , that violence will heighten the contradictions and force a reckoning that leads to a misogynist utopia .
While incels are clearly a movement and pose a unique security threat , there have definitely been efforts to overstate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or organization they represent .
A moral panic over the premier of the blockbuster Joker , spurred in part by the FBI and in part by the media , suggested that screenings could be targeted by incel terrorists .
Incels had the last laugh , as the premier came and went largely without incident .
Clearly , traditional counterterrorism thinking can ’ t be easily applied to the threat posed by the incel movement .
Addressing this problem , like deradicalizing other movements , is extremely difficult .
Jack Peterson is a prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After the Toronto attack , Peterson , a well-known user and the host of an incel podcast who went by the username “ jackbud , ” became a de facto spokesperson for incels .
He insisted in interviews that his community wasn ’ t inherently violent—but that some members were struggling with mental health issues , which led to the killings .
For the rest , like himself , he insisted the incel forums were just another corner of the internet where edgy and morbid humor is the norm .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who aren ’ t mentally ill helps keep a lot of us from going crazy , ” Peterson told the Daily Beast in 2018 .
After interviews like that one , Peterson started hearing from fellow incels .
“ The response I got , ” Peterson told me , was : “ ‘ You ’ re misrepresenting us : We really do hate women .
We ’ re not joking.
’ ” “ The response I got , ” Jack Peterson told me , was : “ ‘ You ’ re misrepresenting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We ’ re not joking.
’ ” That was an eye-opening experience for Peterson .
It was then that he began to realize that maybe violence wasn ’ t incidental to the incel movement but increasingly integral to it .
All the jokes about mass killings and terrorism were “ not as ironic as I imagined , ” he told me for a story in the Guardian in 2018 .
He declared that he was disavowing the incel movement .
That year , Peterson had tried to start dating again .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a documentary about the incel movement , in order to encourage others to leave the community .
“ It ’ ll be tough to maintain this level of confidence and productivity if I don ’ t have a strong circle of friends , ” he confessed .
In the two years since , Peterson has been interviewed for an ABC News feature and profiled in the podcast Invisibilia .
It seemed he was doing what he promised and becoming a signal of hope for the incels looking to break out of the cycle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a YouTube video uploaded this March , titled “ I hate women , ” Peterson repudiated it all .
“ It was a fucking lie to make money from the media , ” he says in the video , over a black background .
“ I pretended to be this other guy to make money.
” I , of course , did not offer Peterson a dime to tell his story—money didn ’ t come up , and the vast majority of journalists consider it unethical to pay a source for an interview @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life offers rejection and difficulty .
Young men like Peterson , and many on the incel forums , find comfort in their shared rejection .
As Peterson himself put it , that shared experience can turn into an alienation from society that allowed their rejection .
“ The mindset is kind of like this : ‘ I ’ ve been bullied and rejected my whole life , so because of all the suffering I ’ ve experienced , now the world owes me sex , it owes me friends , it owes me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve had , ’ ” he said .
In recent years , as far-right extremism has flourished online , there has been an intense debate as to whether acts of violence committed in the name of white supremacist , neo-Nazi , anti-immigrant , and misogynistic movements can be accurately described as terrorism .
The legal systems designed to prosecute terrorism cases after 9/11 were geared toward those who operated on behalf of well-understood terrorist organizations , like al Qaeda .
The Islamic State tested the boundaries of those processes by encouraging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushing out playbooks on how to carry out mass stabbings and vehicle-ramming attacks , while online recruiters targeted disaffected young men and encouraged them to strike at Western governments .
Even then , the Islamic State was a listed terrorist organization to which attackers could profess fealty .
Incel attackers have emulated the tactics of the Islamic State without any of the organizational structure .
They have also echoed white supremacist and neo-Nazi attacks of recent years , like mass shootings targeting mosques seen in Christchurch , New Zealand , or Quebec City @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tactics of the Islamic State without any of the organizational structure .
Navigating how to prosecute cases of incel violence , or even keep tabs on self-professed incels , poses legal and constitutional challenges with no clear solution .
Despite that , U.S. President Donald Trump announced via Twitter on Sunday that a similarly amalgamated movement would be added to the list of designated terrorist organizations—one that , unlike incels , had not been responsible for any significant acts of murder or terrorism—Antifa .
Antifa , of course , exists to oppose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , meanwhile , are all too aware that they bear all the hallmarks of a terrorist group .
Users have shared memes featuring Pepe the Frog—a particularly popular mascot for incels—clad in black and sporting the Islamic State shahada and at the wheel of a van driving through a busy street .
Minassian ’ s alleged crimes closely emulate attacks in places such as Barcelona , Spain , and Nice , France , where the attackers drew inspiration from Islamic State propaganda channels .
Alt-right memes and propaganda are common , as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Islamist terrorist organization preyed on those with mental illness or self-esteem issues , some incels have tried to goad vulnerable adherents into violence .
A 2017 post from a popular incel web forum instructed followers that “ if you go ER , ” a common reference to committing a mass killing , “ you ’ ll basically be immortalized and live on forever since people will speak about you for decades.
” When some users have posted on these web forums expressing suicidal thoughts , others have responded by encouraging them to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suicide by cop .
After the Toronto van attack , one incel posted : “ This guy forgot the most important part of going ER : killing yourself at the end.
” Just as the Islamic State excelled at creating slick multimedia propaganda to entice new recruits , there are even incel hip-hop tracks .
In April , one user uploaded a YouTube video titled “ Alek Minassian ” —a song that glorified the van attack to celebrate the two-year anniversary , with couplets like “ hop over the curb like I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over pedestrians.
” The video was online for weeks until it was finally taken down by YouTube .
The Canadian prosecution of the massage parlor stabbing attack is clearly an attempt to try to make the existing legal structure around terrorism apply to ideologically motivated violent extremism , like the incel movement .
It ’ s still unclear how the courts will respond to that—or what other movements it might be applied to .

In late February, a 17-year-old walked into a massage parlor in Toronto’s West End just after noon with a machete. Paramedics were on scene within a half-hour, treating three victims for stab wounds.
In late February, a 17-year-old walked into a massage parlor in Toronto’s West End just after noon with a machete. Paramedics were on scene within a half-hour, treating three victims for stab wounds.
Ashley Noell Arzaga, just seven years older than her attacker, died on her way to hospital. The spa’s owner lost a finger wrenching away the weapon. The alleged attacker, who remained mostly silent during the rampage, was arrested at the scene.
The attack garnered some media attention at the time, but there was scant detail available. The alleged assailant cannot be named, as Canadian law prohibits identifying youths in the criminal justice system. But it rocketed back into the news on May 19, after police announced that, on top of first-degree and attempted murder charges, they would be prosecuting the crime as an act of terrorism. Investigators “determined that this crime was in fact one in which the accused was inspired by the … movement commonly known as INCEL (involuntary celibate),” according to a statement from the Toronto Police Service and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
It is the first time Canada has prosecuted a terrorism-related charge not tied to Islamic extremism and seemingly the first time in the world a country has pursued terrorism charges against an adherent to the incel movement.
It’s an imperfect solution. Incels are a diverse and loose-knit movement drawn together by two things: a burning misogyny and a nearly cultlike belief that sex is a necessity that should be guaranteed to young men. That has manifested, at times, into attacks on symbolically relevant soft targets: a street full of people enjoying the spring weather; a school full of young adults; and, in February, a massage parlor—a gray-market sex work establishment.
A stabbing attack in Sudbury, Ontario, last June left a woman and her infant daughter injured, while a shooting at an Glendale, Arizona, mall on May 20 critically injured one man and sent a 16-year-old girl to hospital. Over the past six years, more than two dozen people have been killed by members of incel communities.
National security and police agencies are growing increasingly concerned by the threat.
Among incel forums and communities online, an internal struggle is going on. Some, already struggling with poor self-esteem and mental health issues, condemn the attacks and feel further victimized and unfairly maligned. Others, however, are emboldened by and celebrating the mass killings that have taken place in recent years, raising the possibility that there will be more attacks to come.
A series of attacks
Canada is unfortunately very familiar with the threat posed by the incel movement. The term itself originated from a Canadian woman hoping to describe—and thus help—lonely young men frustrated by their own virginity. Since then, she has watched in disgust as it has come to describe a movement that is virulently misogynistic and often avowedly racist, homophobic, and sometimes violent.
In 2018, a rented cargo van plowed through pedestrians along a 1.5-mile stretch of Toronto’s bustling Yonge Street, running through red lights and onto sidewalks. Ten people died in the attack.
Police arrested the driver, Alek Minassian, who now stands accused of 26 charges of first-degree and attempted murder—his trial was scheduled to begin this spring but has been postponed until later this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
A message posted to Minassian’s Facebook shortly before the attack began read: “Private (Recruit) Minassian Infantry 00010, wishing to speak to Sgt 4chan please. C23249161. The Incel Rebellion has already begun! We will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys! All hail the Supreme Gentleman Elliot Rodger!”
The incel community is a loose movement well versed in irony, memes, and inside references, similar to the online white supremacist and neo-Nazi movements.
The message may look like gibberish to many, but in it are a series of references to the incel community—a loose movement that is also well versed in irony, memes, and inside references, similar to the online white supremacist and neo-Nazi movements. Distinguishing truth from deliberate “shitposting” in such manifestos can be tough, but the core ideology remains.
It’s hard to ascribe a single ideology to the incel movement, but broadly speaking the denizens of incel message boards and communities—of which 4chan was an early meeting point—rage against men and women who are capable of finding partners. They are the “Chads” and “Stacys.” Incels believe they are particularly excluded from the dating pool because of their appearance or personalities. Taking the “black pill” (in homage to both The Matrix and the so-called men’s rights movement) means to recognize the supposed unfairness of the Western social structure.
Boiled down, it means waking up to how society has deprived them of sex. For many, the vision of sexual life in the modern West is one in which only a small amount of men scoop up desirable, youthful partners and where other men must settle for, at best, second-rate partners; it is usually coupled with a violent anti-feminism and a nostalgia for an imaginary past of enforced sexual partnerships.
In and of itself, such a movement would be odious, and it might inspire domestic violence—some incels, despite the name, are in relationships but believe that their partners do not match the qualities they “deserve,” such as virginity. But it wouldn’t be a national security threat. For some time, that’s what it was. But, as Minassian recognized in his social media post, that changed when Elliot Rodger, a 22-year-old member of some early incel communities, launched a spree attack in Isla Vista, California, on May 23, 2014.
A manifesto found after Rodger’s rampage ended, which left six people dead, laid out a deeply misogynistic worldview. The themes in that screed—blaming women for ignoring him, other men for finding partners while he remained alone, and society at large for perpetuating a system that left him lonely—are central to the incel movement. On the message boards where incels gather, Rodger’s face is often used for users’ avatars, and he is normally referred to by the shorthand “ER.”
Since Rodger’s spree killing, incel communities have grappled with the violent aspect of their own movement. Some have expressly disavowed violence and have committed to self-improvement rather than self-destruction. Reactions to attacks like the two in Toronto range from outright encouragement to a contention that such incidents are understandable but not justified, while others have tried to argue that these are false flags, organized by police as an excuse to crack down on incels.
Reactions to attacks among the incel community range from outright encouragement to a contention that such incidents are understandable but not justified. Others have tried to argue that they are false flags, organized by police as an excuse to crack down on incels.
The danger of lone-wolf attacks, of course, is that they only take one person.
Chris Harper-Mercer cited Rodger in a manifesto discovered after his 2015 shooting spree at an Oregon college killed nine people. Scott Beierle, who attacked a Tallahassee, Florida, yoga studio in 2018, had uploaded videos praising Rodger and identifying with the movement. Last June, Brian Clyde was shot and killed by officers after attacking a federal building in Dallas—his online posts show he was well versed in the incel world, and his family believes it was a case of suicide by cop.
Alexander Stavropoulos was arrested in Sudbury last June after stabbing a woman in a parking lot and trying to attack her infant daughter—later telling police he was “out to murder a little white girl.” In an agreed statement of facts filed with the court, Stavropoulos self-described as an incel and said he drew inspiration from Minassian’s alleged crimes.
The FBI arrested 33-year-old Carl Bennington in April on cyberstalking charges, after harassing a litany of women online—in some cases, threatening rape and murder. Investigators found he was active in incel communities.
Last month, just before the six-year anniversary of Rodger’s attack, a mass shooting at an Arizona mall sent three to the hospital. Police said 20-year-old Armando Hernandez Jr. went to the mall with the intention of attacking 10 people. Prosecutors said, after an interview with the suspect, that Hernandez identified as an incel and “was targeting couples.”
All told, dozens are dead and maimed at the hands of perpetrators who have, to varying degrees, been part of incel communities online.
Fourteen lights shine skyward at a vigil honoring the victims of the 1989 Ecole Polytechnique attack in Montreal on Dec. 6, 2018. Shooter Eric Lépine's manifesto railed against women and feminism before the age of online incel communities.
A growing national security concern
National security agencies are waking up to the threat. This year’s annual report from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, one of Canada’s main anti-terrorism agencies, singled out “gender-driven violence” as an emerging current of violent extremism—it specifically mentioned the 2018 van attack, as well as the stabbing attack in Sudbury.
“Once viewed as a criminal threat by many law enforcement authorities,” a January report from the Texas Department of Public Safety described. “Incels are now seen as a growing domestic terrorism concern due to the ideological nature of recent Incel attacks internationally, nationwide, and in Texas.”
The Texas report even contends that “this particular threat could soon match, or potentially eclipse, the level of lethalness demonstrated by other domestic terrorism types.”
While the security concern over this amalgamated movement is growing, misogynistic violence is hardly a new phenomenon. In 1989, Marc Lépine targeted female students at the École Polytechnique in Montreal. In a manifesto, he railed against women and feminism, listing women he regretted not being able to kill. Lépine, though, did not have the benefit of the internet to share his warped worldview. He didn’t have a community egging him on.
Lépine, though, lives on in these communities. His face is a common profile picture for denizens of these incel forums.
The emerging concern mirrors the evolution of the incel movement itself. The web forums that comprise the broader incel community have moved and relocated over the years, as they have been taken offline and deplatformed by their web hosts—r/Incels, one of the largest gatherings, was banned by Reddit in 2017 after amassing some 40,000 members.
Today, Incels.co and Incels.net are the primary gathering points. On those forums, users are quick to argue that there is no incel movement or ideology, often when discussing their alleged culpability in acts of violence. Yet reading through the thousands of posts belies a common set of grievances—and a common set of solutions.
Based on their self-reported histories, many of the incels were bullied in school, while some appear to still be in high school. They report low self-esteem, depression, and an inability to make friends. They obsess over their weight, height, and looks. While other online communities may encourage each other, incels often propagate the shaming and bullying they claim to see in the outside world. It’s common for members to post pictures of themselves, only to be told how hideous and undesirable they are by their fellow incels.
Attackers and their online cheerleaders argue that violence will force a reckoning that leads to a misogynist utopia.
It’s from there that things turn particularly ugly. Incels point the blame for their inability to find girlfriends on a supposed moral degradation of Western society. They argue sexual liberation has created a society that is unfair to young men like them—instead privileging the “Chads,” “Stacys,” and the racist archetype of “Tyrone.” Much of this worldview seems heavily informed by pornography.
Incels believe that there is a reckoning coming and that society will need to revert back to a more patriarchal society where men like them can expect partners. Attackers and their online cheerleaders argue, like other accelerationists before them with different ideologies, that violence will heighten the contradictions and force a reckoning that leads to a misogynist utopia.
While incels are clearly a movement and pose a unique security threat, there have definitely been efforts to overstate just how organized and coherent an ideology or organization they represent. A moral panic over the premier of the blockbuster Joker, spurred in part by the FBI and in part by the media, suggested that screenings could be targeted by incel terrorists. Incels had the last laugh, as the premier came and went largely without incident.
Clearly, traditional counterterrorism thinking can’t be easily applied to the threat posed by the incel movement.
Students mourn at a public memorial service for the victims of a killing spree at the University of California, Santa Barbara, in Isla Vista on May 27, 2014. Elliot Rodger killed six college students and wounded seven other people, stabbing three then shooting and running people down in his car near UCSB before killing himself.
Escaping incel
Addressing this problem, like deradicalizing other movements, is extremely difficult. Jack Peterson is a prime example of the fraught challenges at hand.
After the Toronto attack, Peterson, a well-known user and the host of an incel podcast who went by the username “jackbud,” became a de facto spokesperson for incels. He insisted in interviews that his community wasn’t inherently violent—but that some members were struggling with mental health issues, which led to the killings. For the rest, like himself, he insisted the incel forums were just another corner of the internet where edgy and morbid humor is the norm. “I do think that making dark jokes for people who aren’t mentally ill helps keep a lot of us from going crazy,” Peterson told the Daily Beast in 2018.
After interviews like that one, Peterson started hearing from fellow incels. “The response I got,” Peterson told me, was: “‘You’re misrepresenting us: We really do hate women. We’re not joking.’”
“The response I got,” Jack Peterson told me, was: “‘You’re misrepresenting us: We really do hate women. We’re not joking.’”
That was an eye-opening experience for Peterson. It was then that he began to realize that maybe violence wasn’t incidental to the incel movement but increasingly integral to it. All the jokes about mass killings and terrorism were “not as ironic as I imagined,” he told me for a story in the Guardian in 2018. He declared that he was disavowing the incel movement.
That year, Peterson had tried to start dating again. He told me he was hoping to produce a documentary about the incel movement, in order to encourage others to leave the community. “It’ll be tough to maintain this level of confidence and productivity if I don’t have a strong circle of friends,” he confessed.
In the two years since, Peterson has been interviewed for an ABC News feature and profiled in the podcast Invisibilia. It seemed he was doing what he promised and becoming a signal of hope for the incels looking to break out of the cycle of self-pity and depression.
But in a YouTube video uploaded this March, titled “I hate women,” Peterson repudiated it all. “It was a fucking lie to make money from the media,” he says in the video, over a black background. “I pretended to be this other guy to make money.”
I, of course, did not offer Peterson a dime to tell his story—money didn’t come up, and the vast majority of journalists consider it unethical to pay a source for an interview.
The simpler explanation is that real life offers rejection and difficulty. Young men like Peterson, and many on the incel forums, find comfort in their shared rejection.
As Peterson himself put it, that shared experience can turn into an alienation from society that allowed their rejection. “The mindset is kind of like this: ‘I’ve been bullied and rejected my whole life, so because of all the suffering I’ve experienced, now the world owes me sex, it owes me friends, it owes me success, because of all the failures I’ve had,’” he said.
A memorial in Toronto’s Mel Lastman Square on April 30, 2018, a week after the van attack that killed 10.
“True incel heroes”
In recent years, as far-right extremism has flourished online, there has been an intense debate as to whether acts of violence committed in the name of white supremacist, neo-Nazi, anti-immigrant, and misogynistic movements can be accurately described as terrorism.
The legal systems designed to prosecute terrorism cases after 9/11 were geared toward those who operated on behalf of well-understood terrorist organizations, like al Qaeda. The Islamic State tested the boundaries of those processes by encouraging its followers to conduct lone-wolf attacks, pushing out playbooks on how to carry out mass stabbings and vehicle-ramming attacks, while online recruiters targeted disaffected young men and encouraged them to strike at Western governments. Even then, the Islamic State was a listed terrorist organization to which attackers could profess fealty.
Incel attackers have emulated the tactics of the Islamic State without any of the organizational structure. They have also echoed white supremacist and neo-Nazi attacks of recent years, like mass shootings targeting mosques seen in Christchurch, New Zealand, or Quebec City, Canada.
Incel attackers have emulated the tactics of the Islamic State without any of the organizational structure.
Navigating how to prosecute cases of incel violence, or even keep tabs on self-professed incels, poses legal and constitutional challenges with no clear solution. Despite that, U.S. President Donald Trump announced via Twitter on Sunday that a similarly amalgamated movement would be added to the list of designated terrorist organizations—one that, unlike incels, had not been responsible for any significant acts of murder or terrorism—Antifa.
Antifa, of course, exists to oppose other violent and racist ideologies. Incels, meanwhile, are all too aware that they bear all the hallmarks of a terrorist group. Users have shared memes featuring Pepe the Frog—a particularly popular mascot for incels—clad in black and sporting the Islamic State shahada and at the wheel of a van driving through a busy street. Minassian’s alleged crimes closely emulate attacks in places such as Barcelona, Spain, and Nice, France, where the attackers drew inspiration from Islamic State propaganda channels. Alt-right memes and propaganda are common, as well.
Much as how recruiters for the Islamist terrorist organization preyed on those with mental illness or self-esteem issues, some incels have tried to goad vulnerable adherents into violence. A 2017 post from a popular incel web forum instructed followers that “if you go ER,” a common reference to committing a mass killing, “you’ll basically be immortalized and live on forever since people will speak about you for decades.” When some users have posted on these web forums expressing suicidal thoughts, others have responded by encouraging them to take out others in the process and committing suicide by cop.
After the Toronto van attack, one incel posted: “This guy forgot the most important part of going ER: killing yourself at the end.”
Just as the Islamic State excelled at creating slick multimedia propaganda to entice new recruits, there are even incel hip-hop tracks. In April, one user uploaded a YouTube video titled “Alek Minassian”—a song that glorified the van attack to celebrate the two-year anniversary, with couplets like “hop over the curb like I’m Alek Minassian … while I run over pedestrians.” The video was online for weeks until it was finally taken down by YouTube.
The Canadian prosecution of the massage parlor stabbing attack is clearly an attempt to try to make the existing legal structure around terrorism apply to ideologically motivated violent extremism, like the incel movement. It’s still unclear how the courts will respond to that—or what other movements it might be applied to.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-02--Australia Launches Probe Into U.S. Police Violence Against TV Crew

Australia Launches Probe Into U.S. Police Violence Against TV Crew The Australian government will open an investigation into U.S. law enforcement assaulting an Australian news crew covering protests in Washington , D.C. , highlighting the growing diplomatic fallout for the United States with its closest allies from its long-standing problems with police violence and racial injustice .
Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the country ’ s embassy in Washington was directed to open an investigation into police officers in riot gear striking an Australian 7NEWS journalist and cameraman while they were live on air .
The footage appears to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Police during protests near the White House .
Law enforcement used tear gas and flash-bang grenades to disperse protesters from the area ahead of a photo opportunity for President Donald Trump on Monday .
“ I want to get further advice on how we would go about registering Australia ’ s strong concerns with the responsible local authorities in Washington .
This is obviously a very troubling period in the United States and a very tough period at so many levels , ” Payne said in an interview on Tuesday with Australia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement , Australia ’ s ambassador in Washington , Arthur Sinodinos , said the embassy was “ in discussion with the State Department and they have offered assistance to identify where the complaint should be targeted.
” In the past week , forceful crackdowns against marchers protesting police violence and racial injustice have prompted a historic reversal , putting Washington on the defensive on an issue it has championed globally for decades : human rights .
Foreign diplomats told Foreign Policy that the footage of the death of George Floyd , a black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while already detained and handcuffed , and the police response to subsequent protests are draining already declining reserves of American soft power abroad .
Senior European and African leaders condemned Floyd ’ s death and violence amid the U.S. protests , while abroad thousands of people demonstrated in front of U.S. embassies and consulates from Canada to Spain to New Zealand .
Trump , meanwhile , denounced Floyd ’ s death as tragic but struck a defiant tone in response to the widespread protests , rebuking governors for their handling of the protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military to quell riots .
Senior U.S. diplomats abroad have been forced to respond to the unrest at home , condemning Floyd ’ s death and insisting the United States continues to be a voice on human rights and press freedom in the world .
“ Freedom of the press is a right Australians and Americans hold dear , ” Trump ’ s ambassador to Australia , Arthur Culvahouse Jr. , said in a statement on Tuesday morning .
“ We take mistreatment of journalists seriously , as do all who take democracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , press freedom advocacy groups have tracked more than 125 incidents in three days of journalists facing attacks from police and protesters and other press freedom violations , including incidents with foreign journalists from Germany , Britain , and Australia .
“ The reported arrests and incidents are very concerning – journalists all around the world must be free to do their job and to hold authorities to account without fear of arrest or violence , ” a British Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokesperson told Foreign Policy .
“ We are horrified by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violent actions of police against journalists doing their jobs .
These are direct violations of press freedom , a fundamental Constitutional value of the United States , ” said Carlos Martinez de la Serna , a program director with the nonprofit advocacy group Committee to Protect Journalists .
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser distanced local police from federal police forces involved in the surge against protesters on Monday evening near the White House , which came shortly before a citywide curfew .
“ I imposed a curfew at 7pm .
A full 25 minutes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal police used munitions on peaceful protestors in front of the White House , an act that will make the job of @ DCPoliceDept officers more difficult .
Shameful !
” she wrote on Twitter .
“ DC residents — Go home .
Be safe.
” Amelia Brace , the Australian 7NEWS correspondent targeted by police with her cameraman , Tim Myers , described to her news station their treatment at the hands of U.S. law enforcement .
“ You heard us yelling that we were media … but they don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the moment , ” she said .
“ They were quite violent , and they do not care who they ’ re targeting at the moment.
” Update , June 2 , 2020 : This article was updated with a statement from a British Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokesperson .

The Australian government will open an investigation into U.S. law enforcement assaulting an Australian news crew covering protests in Washington, D.C., highlighting the growing diplomatic fallout for the United States with its closest allies from its long-standing problems with police violence and racial injustice.
The Australian government will open an investigation into U.S. law enforcement assaulting an Australian news crew covering protests in Washington, D.C., highlighting the growing diplomatic fallout for the United States with its closest allies from its long-standing problems with police violence and racial injustice.
Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the country’s embassy in Washington was directed to open an investigation into police officers in riot gear striking an Australian 7NEWS journalist and cameraman while they were live on air. The footage appears to show they were attacked by U.S. Park Police during protests near the White House. Law enforcement used tear gas and flash-bang grenades to disperse protesters from the area ahead of a photo opportunity for President Donald Trump on Monday.
“I want to get further advice on how we would go about registering Australia’s strong concerns with the responsible local authorities in Washington. This is obviously a very troubling period in the United States and a very tough period at so many levels,” Payne said in an interview on Tuesday with Australia’s ABC Radio National.
In a statement, Australia’s ambassador in Washington, Arthur Sinodinos, said the embassy was “in discussion with the State Department and they have offered assistance to identify where the complaint should be targeted.”
In the past week, forceful crackdowns against marchers protesting police violence and racial injustice have prompted a historic reversal, putting Washington on the defensive on an issue it has championed globally for decades: human rights.
Foreign diplomats told Foreign Policy that the footage of the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by a Minneapolis police officer while already detained and handcuffed, and the police response to subsequent protests are draining already declining reserves of American soft power abroad.
Senior European and African leaders condemned Floyd’s death and violence amid the U.S. protests, while abroad thousands of people demonstrated in front of U.S. embassies and consulates from Canada to Spain to New Zealand. Trump, meanwhile, denounced Floyd’s death as tragic but struck a defiant tone in response to the widespread protests, rebuking governors for their handling of the protests and threatening to call in the U.S. military to quell riots.
Senior U.S. diplomats abroad have been forced to respond to the unrest at home, condemning Floyd’s death and insisting the United States continues to be a voice on human rights and press freedom in the world.
“Freedom of the press is a right Australians and Americans hold dear,” Trump’s ambassador to Australia, Arthur Culvahouse Jr., said in a statement on Tuesday morning. “We take mistreatment of journalists seriously, as do all who take democracy seriously.”
Yet across the United States, press freedom advocacy groups have tracked more than 125 incidents in three days of journalists facing attacks from police and protesters and other press freedom violations, including incidents with foreign journalists from Germany, Britain, and Australia. “The reported arrests and incidents are very concerning – journalists all around the world must be free to do their job and to hold authorities to account without fear of arrest or violence,” a British Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokesperson told Foreign Policy.
“We are horrified by the continued use of harsh and sometimes violent actions of police against journalists doing their jobs. These are direct violations of press freedom, a fundamental Constitutional value of the United States,” said Carlos Martinez de la Serna, a program director with the nonprofit advocacy group Committee to Protect Journalists.
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser distanced local police from federal police forces involved in the surge against protesters on Monday evening near the White House, which came shortly before a citywide curfew. “I imposed a curfew at 7pm. A full 25 minutes before the curfew & w/o provocation, federal police used munitions on peaceful protestors in front of the White House, an act that will make the job of @DCPoliceDept officers more difficult. Shameful!” she wrote on Twitter. “DC residents — Go home. Be safe.”
Amelia Brace, the Australian 7NEWS correspondent targeted by police with her cameraman, Tim Myers, described to her news station their treatment at the hands of U.S. law enforcement. “You heard us yelling that we were media … but they don’t care. They are being indiscriminate at the moment,” she said. “They were quite violent, and they do not care who they’re targeting at the moment.”
Update, June 2, 2020: This article was updated with a statement from a British Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokesperson.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-02--The U.S. Election Will Determine Assad’s Future

The U.S. Election Will Determine Assad ’ s Future The economic impact of the Syrian civil war has battered the country and threatens a new round of unrest .
As economic conditions similarly worsen in Iran—Syria ’ s main financial backer , whose support surpasses even that of Russia—Syria has been forced to rely on its own limited resources , to little effect .
Now , the survival of President Bashar al-Assad ’ s regime ironically rests on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this November and what it will mean for U.S.-Iranian relations .
The deterioration of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the destruction of civilian infrastructure since the beginning of the civil war in 2011 , coupled with harsh economic sanctions imposed by the United States .
The World Bank reported in August 2019 that the country ’ s GDP had declined to almost one-third of its pre-conflict level , and , according to the report , 64 percent of the negative growth had been a result of the destruction of physical capital .
Under normal circumstances , Syria could expect to rely on Iran for financial assistance , but economic sanctions imposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought the Iranian economy to its knees , forcing it to focus its now-limited resources inward and leaving Syria to face its economic problems alone .
The coronavirus pandemic delivered an even greater blow to Iran ’ s economy , causing its GDP to decrease by around 15 percent .
The U.S. policy toward Syria has enjoyed bipartisan support for the most part , and both the Obama and Trump administrations adopted similar approaches to the country , engaging in comprehensive military interventions to defeat the Islamic State and imposing harsh economic sanctions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. intervention was instrumental in the collapse of the Syrian economy , Assad could always rely on support from Iran to boost his country ’ s fortunes .
For that reason , it was Trump ’ s and former President Barack Obama ’ s divergent approaches to Iran that had the greatest effect on the Syrian economy.Trump ’ s and former President Barack Obama ’ s divergent approaches to Iran had the greatest effect on the Syrian economy .
Obama negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 that , among other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country .
The deal unfroze many of Iran ’ s foreign assets and allowed its economy to flourish , thus giving it the capacity to continue providing support to its allies abroad , including Syria .
Both Assad and one of his advisors , Bouthaina Shaaban , welcomed the deal and expected the Iranian financial backing to continue apace .
Indeed , Iranian support was a critical factor keeping Assad ’ s regime afloat in the midst of the conflict , and it used this support to defeat both the Islamic State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in large parts of the country .
Russia also played an important role in Syria .
In addition to providing logistical and air support to Assad ’ s forces , Moscow has played a vital political role by shielding Syria from more than 14 U.N. resolutions by exercising its veto power on the Security Council .
Trump ’ s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran in 2018 reversed this process .
After the move , a news agency with close ties to the Syrian regime reported that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severed , immediately causing the Syrian oil sector—on which the country is heavily dependent—to collapse .
The Syrian government responded to the Iranian crisis by implementing strict austerity measures .
This January , the deputy minister of internal trade and consumer protection announced that each family , regardless of its size , would receive just 8.8 pounds of sugar , 6.6 pounds of rice , and 2.2 pounds of tea at a subsidized rate per month through its “ smart card ” program .
This is in addition to a cooking gas ration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Assad also issued two legislative decrees in 2019 that increased the salary of retirees and public servants with the aim of putting more money in people ’ s pockets in the hope that it would lead to an increase in demand for goods and services and ultimately stimulate the economy .
His rationale was sound , but his policy directives were constrained by the economy ’ s inherent weaknesses .
In addition to the loss of physical capital , economic sanctions have cut Syria off from the international market , limiting its ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in turn handicapped its production capacity .
More than that , the self-financing capacity of the economy is limited , particularly as Syrian households have been forced to increasingly rely on their savings to get by .
Even the country ’ s rich business class is little help .
They have withdrawn most of their finances from Syrian banks and reinvested in neighboring countries .
What little respite the country might have found in its own natural resources has been hampered by the regime ’ s loss of its oil fields and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Syria .
So , even though Assad ’ s policy initiatives had given more money to more Syrians , they were unable to overcome the variety of challenges the economy faces.The irony of all of this is that what ’ s good for Syrian people in government-held areas is also good for Assad .
The Syrian Central Bank has been virtually powerless due to the depletion of its supplies of foreign currency and gold , leaving the bank unable to stabilize the exchange rate nor fund the purchase of imports .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reserves , for example , hovered around $ 407 million in January 2018 , in contrast to their 2010 level of $ 20.6 billion .
The low reserve level has caused the country ’ s currency to steadily depreciate against the U.S. dollar since May 2018 , increasing the cost of imports and servicing foreign loans .
In January , it fell to a paltry 1,230 Syrian pounds per one U.S. dollar , in contrast to its prewar level of around 50 Syrian pounds per one U.S. dollar .
Because so much of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government procuring financial backing from Iran , the country ’ s future—and , by extension , Bashar al-Assad ’ s future as president—depends on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election .
If Trump wins a second term , Syrians can expect much of the same : The Trump administration will likely continue its maximum pressure campaign on Tehran , maintaining stringent sanctions on the country and forcing it to focus its resources on its own crumbling economy as well as the growing sense of public dissatisfaction with the regime .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , the United States will likely pivot back toward diplomacy , choosing to engage with Iran and , crucially , reentering his predecessor ’ s nuclear deal .
As part of this process , a Biden administration would probably lift some economic sanctions on Iran , allowing it to again focus its resources abroad .
Of course , the inherent risk of such a move is that Assad would be strengthened in Syria , undermining the U.S. sanctions regime there and strengthening Iran in the Middle East .
But it would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Syrian economy back on the path to stabilization .
The irony of all of this is that what ’ s good for Syrian people in government-held areas is also good for Assad , at least for now .
The inflow of cash from Iran will undoubtedly strengthen his regime , allowing him to rebuild his legitimacy at home by mitigating discontent among impoverished Syrians .
Neither a Trump nor a Biden presidency will bring economic sanctions relief for Syria , so the country ’ s growth potential will remain limited as long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if Syria can again rely on substantial support from Iran , expect Assad to hold the reins of power indefinitely .

The economic impact of the Syrian civil war has battered the country and threatens a new round of unrest . As economic conditions similarly worsen in Iran—Syria’s main financial backer, whose support surpasses even that of Russia —Syria has been forced to rely on its own limited resources, to little effect. Now, the survival of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime ironically rests on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this November and what it will mean for U.S.-Iranian relations.
The economic impact of the Syrian civil war has battered the country and threatens a new round of unrest. As economic conditions similarly worsen in Iran—Syria’s main financial backer, whose support surpasses even that of Russia—Syria has been forced to rely on its own limited resources, to little effect. Now, the survival of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime ironically rests on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this November and what it will mean for U.S.-Iranian relations.
The deterioration of the Syrian economy has largely been a consequence of the destruction of civilian infrastructure since the beginning of the civil war in 2011, coupled with harsh economic sanctions imposed by the United States. The World Bank reported in August 2019 that the country’s GDP had declined to almost one-third of its pre-conflict level, and, according to the report, 64 percent of the negative growth had been a result of the destruction of physical capital.
Under normal circumstances, Syria could expect to rely on Iran for financial assistance, but economic sanctions imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 brought the Iranian economy to its knees, forcing it to focus its now-limited resources inward and leaving Syria to face its economic problems alone. The coronavirus pandemic delivered an even greater blow to Iran’s economy, causing its GDP to decrease by around 15 percent.
The U.S. policy toward Syria has enjoyed bipartisan support for the most part, and both the Obama and Trump administrations adopted similar approaches to the country, engaging in comprehensive military interventions to defeat the Islamic State and imposing harsh economic sanctions on the Assad regime. But while the U.S. intervention was instrumental in the collapse of the Syrian economy, Assad could always rely on support from Iran to boost his country’s fortunes. For that reason, it was Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s divergent approaches to Iran that had the greatest effect on the Syrian economy.Trump’s and former President Barack Obama’s divergent approaches to Iran had the greatest effect on the Syrian economy.
Obama negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 that, among other things, significantly eased economic pressure on the country. The deal unfroze many of Iran’s foreign assets and allowed its economy to flourish, thus giving it the capacity to continue providing support to its allies abroad, including Syria. Both Assad and one of his advisors, Bouthaina Shaaban, welcomed the deal and expected the Iranian financial backing to continue apace. Indeed, Iranian support was a critical factor keeping Assad’s regime afloat in the midst of the conflict, and it used this support to defeat both the Islamic State and opposition forces and reestablish its authority in large parts of the country. Russia also played an important role in Syria. In addition to providing logistical and air support to Assad’s forces, Moscow has played a vital political role by shielding Syria from more than 14 U.N. resolutions by exercising its veto power on the Security Council.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran in 2018 reversed this process. After the move, a news agency with close ties to the Syrian regime reported that the credit line from Iran had been severed, immediately causing the Syrian oil sector—on which the country is heavily dependent—to collapse.
The Syrian government responded to the Iranian crisis by implementing strict austerity measures. This January, the deputy minister of internal trade and consumer protection announced that each family, regardless of its size, would receive just 8.8 pounds of sugar, 6.6 pounds of rice, and 2.2 pounds of tea at a subsidized rate per month through its “smart card” program. This is in addition to a cooking gas ration the government already introduced in 2019.
Assad also issued two legislative decrees in 2019 that increased the salary of retirees and public servants with the aim of putting more money in people’s pockets in the hope that it would lead to an increase in demand for goods and services and ultimately stimulate the economy.
His rationale was sound, but his policy directives were constrained by the economy’s inherent weaknesses. In addition to the loss of physical capital, economic sanctions have cut Syria off from the international market, limiting its ability to attract foreign investment, which has in turn handicapped its production capacity. More than that, the self-financing capacity of the economy is limited, particularly as Syrian households have been forced to increasingly rely on their savings to get by.
Even the country’s rich business class is little help. They have withdrawn most of their finances from Syrian banks and reinvested in neighboring countries. What little respite the country might have found in its own natural resources has been hampered by the regime’s loss of its oil fields and the U.S. prohibition on the delivery of oil to Syria. So, even though Assad’s policy initiatives had given more money to more Syrians, they were unable to overcome the variety of challenges the economy faces.The irony of all of this is that what’s good for Syrian people in government-held areas is also good for Assad.
The Syrian Central Bank has been virtually powerless due to the depletion of its supplies of foreign currency and gold, leaving the bank unable to stabilize the exchange rate nor fund the purchase of imports. The value of its foreign exchange and gold reserves, for example, hovered around $407 million in January 2018, in contrast to their 2010 level of $20.6 billion. The low reserve level has caused the country’s currency to steadily depreciate against the U.S. dollar since May 2018, increasing the cost of imports and servicing foreign loans. In January, it fell to a paltry 1,230 Syrian pounds per one U.S. dollar, in contrast to its prewar level of around 50 Syrian pounds per one U.S. dollar.
Because so much of Syria’s economic health hinges on the government procuring financial backing from Iran, the country’s future—and, by extension, Bashar al-Assad’s future as president—depends on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. If Trump wins a second term, Syrians can expect much of the same: The Trump administration will likely continue its maximum pressure campaign on Tehran, maintaining stringent sanctions on the country and forcing it to focus its resources on its own crumbling economy as well as the growing sense of public dissatisfaction with the regime.
If presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins, however, the United States will likely pivot back toward diplomacy, choosing to engage with Iran and, crucially, reentering his predecessor’s nuclear deal. As part of this process, a Biden administration would probably lift some economic sanctions on Iran, allowing it to again focus its resources abroad. Of course, the inherent risk of such a move is that Assad would be strengthened in Syria, undermining the U.S. sanctions regime there and strengthening Iran in the Middle East. But it would also mean alleviating public grievances and putting the Syrian economy back on the path to stabilization.
The irony of all of this is that what’s good for Syrian people in government-held areas is also good for Assad, at least for now. The inflow of cash from Iran will undoubtedly strengthen his regime, allowing him to rebuild his legitimacy at home by mitigating discontent among impoverished Syrians.
Neither a Trump nor a Biden presidency will bring economic sanctions relief for Syria, so the country’s growth potential will remain limited as long as Assad is in power. But if Syria can again rely on substantial support from Iran, expect Assad to hold the reins of power indefinitely.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-02--An Appeal to the National Security Community to Fight Racial Injustice

An Appeal to the National Security Community to Fight Racial Injustice We have both had the honor of serving our country , albeit in different ways .
One of us is a West Point graduate , former Obama appointee , and combat veteran with experience in homeland security ; the other has been a civil servant and political appointee and has worked in places such as North Korea and Russia to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons .
One of us is black , and one of us is white .
One of us is Jewish , and the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and one of us is white ; one of us is Jewish , the other Christian .
We have different backgrounds , but both of us have spent our lives in service of the same goal : a safe and secure country where our fellow citizens can thrive and reach their potential .
We are proud to be part of a dedicated , highly educated , and principled national security community made up of people who serve and believe in the promise of America .
Those who make up this broader community give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or gathering power , but instead to ensuring U.S. security and promoting a foreign policy that protects not just U.S. citizens and interests , but also the universal ideals of freedom and self-determination around the world .
It is time for this great community to explicitly and collectively turn serious attention and energy to the issue that fundamentally threatens our ability to protect U.S. national security : racial injustice and inequality at home .
The United States can not claim to be a beacon of freedom in the world if it continues to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ innocent black people .
Unless the country makes fundamental changes , cities and communities will continue to be torn apart through over-policing and abuse , economic and racial inequity , and other persistent legacies of racism—all undermining both the United States ’ ability to function as a society and its credibility on the global stage .
The United States has a long history , beset by a sharp contrast between those who enjoy the promise of a better life and others who bear the brunt of ongoing iniquity and heinous treatment .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to build any true national consensus and to sustain the resources needed to pursue national security priorities .
True consensus means engagement with all parts of society , not just those let into the halls of influence .
And as the United States—244 years after its founding—continues to struggle to live up to its creed of equality and inclusion , the credibility which the national security community needs to address global issues of injustice , human rights , peace , stability , democracy promotion , and the rule of law is fundamentally undermined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeks to address global threats but refuses to confront the sins that hide in plain sight at home , there will never be lasting progress in either area .
For the past several years , the national security community has finally begun to address the striking gender imbalance in our field .
And we are indeed making progress on that front .
But our diversity efforts must expand to people of color , and we must incorporate in our work and our policies the need to address fundamental , racially driven divisions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first to make this call , but we believe everyone must recognize and act to make this link between the United States ’ national burdens and global objectives clear .
Our community must be more proactive in recruiting people of color to its ranks , in discussing how racial and economic divisions at home undermine U.S. security , and in championing investments in underprivileged and excluded communities the same way we champion national security tools , funds , and initiatives .
Neither of us has an answer for exactly how we can accelerate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us that unless the national security community takes on this challenge in some meaningful way , we will be partly responsible for the perpetuation of the divisions plaguing society and eroding the United States ’ moral authority .
Unless the national security community takes on this challenge , we will be partly responsible for the perpetuation of the divisions plaguing society and eroding the United States ’ moral authority .
It is a convention in national security analysis to strike as objective a tone as possible .
Experts who focus on how inequality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less seriously than those who focus on weapons development or military strategy .
This , too , reflects the structural tunnel vision in our community that has to change .
In this spirit , if we are not all actively aware of how racial injustice undermines our security and if we do not integrate efforts to combat it into our work and policy initiatives , then we will be part of the problem and guilty of undercutting our own security .
The United States faces a historic moment that provides an opportunity for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and act on the issues of race and extremism—and how they affect our security , diplomatic relationships , and credibility abroad .
The racism that threatens lives and security will not magically vanish .
It will not draw back or resolve itself .
It must be cut out like the cancer it has been for so long .
The national security community can strengthen the nation of which it is a part by being not just an ally of those who want change , but also an active participant in this dialogue and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and moral authority of the United States are intrinsically linked .
If our community fails to step up to this challenge , our service and the efforts by all of us will fall far short of our collective goals .

We have both had the honor of serving our country, albeit in different ways. One of us is a West Point graduate, former Obama appointee, and combat veteran with experience in homeland security; the other has been a civil servant and political appointee and has worked in places such as North Korea and Russia to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. One of us is black, and one of us is white. One of us is Jewish, and the other is Christian.One of us is black, and one of us is white; one of us is Jewish, the other Christian.
We have both had the honor of serving our country, albeit in different ways. One of us is a West Point graduate, former Obama appointee, and combat veteran with experience in homeland security; the other has been a civil servant and political appointee and has worked in places such as North Korea and Russia to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. One of us is black, and one of us is white. One of us is Jewish, and the other is Christian.One of us is black, and one of us is white; one of us is Jewish, the other Christian.
We have different backgrounds, but both of us have spent our lives in service of the same goal: a safe and secure country where our fellow citizens can thrive and reach their potential. We are proud to be part of a dedicated, highly educated, and principled national security community made up of people who serve and believe in the promise of America. Those who make up this broader community give their considerable talents not to making money or gathering power, but instead to ensuring U.S. security and promoting a foreign policy that protects not just U.S. citizens and interests, but also the universal ideals of freedom and self-determination around the world.
It is time for this great community to explicitly and collectively turn serious attention and energy to the issue that fundamentally threatens our ability to protect U.S. national security: racial injustice and inequality at home. The United States cannot claim to be a beacon of freedom in the world if it continues to witness and accept the ongoing murder of innocent black people. Unless the country makes fundamental changes, cities and communities will continue to be torn apart through over-policing and abuse, economic and racial inequity, and other persistent legacies of racism—all undermining both the United States’ ability to function as a society and its credibility on the global stage.
The United States has a long history, beset by a sharp contrast between those who enjoy the promise of a better life and others who bear the brunt of ongoing iniquity and heinous treatment. In such an environment, it is impossible to build any true national consensus and to sustain the resources needed to pursue national security priorities. True consensus means engagement with all parts of society, not just those let into the halls of influence. And as the United States—244 years after its founding—continues to struggle to live up to its creed of equality and inclusion, the credibility which the national security community needs to address global issues of injustice, human rights, peace, stability, democracy promotion, and the rule of law is fundamentally undermined. If the national security community only seeks to address global threats but refuses to confront the sins that hide in plain sight at home, there will never be lasting progress in either area.
For the past several years, the national security community has finally begun to address the striking gender imbalance in our field. And we are indeed making progress on that front. But our diversity efforts must expand to people of color, and we must incorporate in our work and our policies the need to address fundamental, racially driven divisions in our society. We are not the first to make this call, but we believe everyone must recognize and act to make this link between the United States’ national burdens and global objectives clear. Our community must be more proactive in recruiting people of color to its ranks, in discussing how racial and economic divisions at home undermine U.S. security, and in championing investments in underprivileged and excluded communities the same way we champion national security tools, funds, and initiatives. Neither of us has an answer for exactly how we can accelerate change, but it is clear to us that unless the national security community takes on this challenge in some meaningful way, we will be partly responsible for the perpetuation of the divisions plaguing society and eroding the United States’ moral authority. Unless the national security community takes on this challenge, we will be partly responsible for the perpetuation of the divisions plaguing society and eroding the United States’ moral authority.
It is a convention in national security analysis to strike as objective a tone as possible. Experts who focus on how inequality and injustice undermine security are often taken less seriously than those who focus on weapons development or military strategy. This, too, reflects the structural tunnel vision in our community that has to change. In this spirit, if we are not all actively aware of how racial injustice undermines our security and if we do not integrate efforts to combat it into our work and policy initiatives, then we will be part of the problem and guilty of undercutting our own security.
The United States faces a historic moment that provides an opportunity for the national security community to both discuss and act on the issues of race and extremism—and how they affect our security, diplomatic relationships, and credibility abroad. The racism that threatens lives and security will not magically vanish. It will not draw back or resolve itself. It must be cut out like the cancer it has been for so long. The national security community can strengthen the nation of which it is a part by being not just an ally of those who want change, but also an active participant in this dialogue and effort. The battles for the security and moral authority of the United States are intrinsically linked. If our community fails to step up to this challenge, our service and the efforts by all of us will fall far short of our collective goals.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-02--Autocrats Love Using the Bible as a Prop. Americans Shouldn’t.

Autocrats Love Using the Bible as a Prop .
Americans Shouldn ’ t .
America opposes idolatry .
Not just the act of idolatry but the very idea that idols have power .
That is why its laws—unlike those of many other nations—do not criminalize the burning of holy books or the destruction of sacred images .
Its citizens do not worship pictures of leaders .
The power of words and images in the United States is in the values they represent , not the objects themselves .
Even the perpetual attempts to criminalize flag-burning consistently—and rightly—fail .
Just as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , neither does holding them up .
Only idolaters believe that waving a flag makes you a patriot or wearing a cross makes you a Christian .
As the singer John Prine , who died of COVID-19 in April , put it : “ Your flag decal won ’ t get you into heaven.
” When U.S. President Donald Trump brandished an upside-down Bible in front of a church he rarely attends and whose leaders and congregation work against the policies he trumpets , the clouds of tear gas deployed to part peaceful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the air , it was idolatry .
It was the same idolatry that whitens the teeth and tans the cheeks and furnishes the mansions of the prosperity gospel pastors who pant for attention at his side , before returning to homes like Trump ’ s , choked with the same precious metal that King Nebuchadnezzar used to craft his image of gold .
And it was the same spirit that drove Vladimir Putin to coyly boast of the Bible on his plane and Saddam Hussein to have a Quran written in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s election , televangelists like his thrice-married personal pastor Paula White were busy rotting their religion from the inside by making wealth and power the goal of prayer .
For white evangelicals , the most stalwart block of Trump supporters , that has long meant embracing racism , from the Rev .
Jerry Falwell ’ s lack of concern about apartheid South Africa ( Bishop Desmond Tutu , he said , was a “ phony ” ) to overwhelming pushback against accepting refugees .
Dazzled by the promise of gold and scared at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they worship a king instead of love .
Nebuchadnezzar ’ s sin wasn ’ t merely the creation of his golden idol .
“ Idolatry not only refers to false pagan worship , ” explains the Catechism of the Catholic Church .
“ It remains a constant temptation to faith .
Idolatry consists in divinizing what is not God .
Man commits idolatry whenever he honors and reveres a creature in place of God , whether this be gods or demons ( for example , satanism ) , power , pleasure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money , etc.
” John Adams also understood the broad nature of the term , writing with concern about “ universal Idolatry to the Mammon of Unrighteousness.
” He recognized how all tyrants , from Julius Caesar to corrupt governors , exploited “ the mad Idolatry of the People , ” which inevitably turned into “ the surest Instruments of their own Servitude.
” Idolatry is the most dangerous form of religion—and of belief in general—because it mistakes outside for inside , form for reality , displays of piety for piety itself .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ light , warns Second Corinthians—or , as Trump calls it , “ Two Corinthians.
” But disguises and displays do not disclose what matters , and using them has no transformative power .
The people who revel in display are suspect , says the book Trump waves but does not read .
“ When you pray , you are not to be like the hypocrites ; for they love to stand and pray in the synagogues and on the street corners so that they may be seen by men.
” Only idolaters would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mere act of Trump ’ s holding the Bible upside down or saying “ two ” instead of “ second.
” The display , in itself , has no power .
No , the evil , as Jesus warned , is pretending that a display of religion is actual religion .
The evil is confusing the good book with a good prop .
This should matter to all Americans .
Even those who don ’ t care about the Bible should oppose drafting it into a photo-op .
“ I am outraged , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ John ’ s Church , when she heard how her place of worship had been desecrated by the photo-op .
“ He did not pray , ” she added .
It was a desecration far more disgusting than any physical damage could ever be .
Wrath and crime are bad , but they are easier to forgive than idolatry .
That ’ s why church leaders responded differently to the basement fire set by rioters only hours earlier .
“ I want to point the attention back to where it really should be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Rev .
Robert Fisher , said , “ which is the purpose of the protests , and the people who did what they did to the church do not represent the majority , who are here for reasons that we totally support.
” The phrase “ virtue signaling ” has special currency among Trump supporters and other critics of the political left , who see sin in displays of liberal ideology that go no further than furious hashtags and fair trade handbags .
The phrase may be used overzealously , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appearances over action and authenticity .
It is hard to imagine a better example of it than the signal Trump sent from St. John ’ s , American flag pin on his lapel , posing for his spiritual pornography .
There is concern among some deeply religious Americans that secular liberalism poses a grave threat to their faith .
The atheists , the socialists , the gay-marriers , and the abortion-havers .
The godless educators who refuse to post the Ten Commandments .
But the real threat to holy texts isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s people who think that once you ’ ve posted them , there ’ s no more work to be done , and go right back to the unrighteous idolatry of mammon , blind to sin as long as it is draped in a flag or decorated with a cross .
Americans should all be terrified by this unholy political theater .
Terrified because in this unprecedented crucible of intersecting crises , the United States needs genuine faith and love .
Terrified because if Americans are shaped instead by hollow leaders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ battered and broken and divided , incapable of distinguishing even the crassest propaganda from the truth .
And terrified because , as the president gleefully calls in the military after posing with the unread word of Christ , the idolaters may have finally won .

America opposes idolatry. Not just the act of idolatry but the very idea that idols have power. That is why its laws—unlike those of many other nations—do not criminalize the burning of holy books or the destruction of sacred images. Its citizens do not worship pictures of leaders. The power of words and images in the United States is in the values they represent, not the objects themselves. Even the perpetual attempts to criminalize flag-burning consistently—and rightly—fail.
America opposes idolatry. Not just the act of idolatry but the very idea that idols have power. That is why its laws—unlike those of many other nations—do not criminalize the burning of holy books or the destruction of sacred images. Its citizens do not worship pictures of leaders. The power of words and images in the United States is in the values they represent, not the objects themselves. Even the perpetual attempts to criminalize flag-burning consistently—and rightly—fail.
Just as destroying these objects has no magic power, neither does holding them up. Only idolaters believe that waving a flag makes you a patriot or wearing a cross makes you a Christian. As the singer John Prine, who died of COVID-19 in April, put it: “Your flag decal won’t get you into heaven.”
When U.S. President Donald Trump brandished an upside-down Bible in front of a church he rarely attends and whose leaders and congregation work against the policies he trumpets, the clouds of toxic irritants deployed to part peaceful protesters and allow his visit still hanging in the air, it was idolatry.
It was the same idolatry that whitens the teeth and tans the cheeks and furnishes the mansions of the prosperity gospel pastors who pant for attention at his side, before returning to homes like Trump’s, choked with the same precious metal that King Nebuchadnezzar used to craft his image of gold. And it was the same spirit that drove Vladimir Putin to coyly boast of the Bible on his plane and Saddam Hussein to have a Quran written in his own blood.
Far before Trump’s election, televangelists like his thrice-married personal pastor Paula White were busy rotting their religion from the inside by making wealth and power the goal of prayer. For white evangelicals, the most stalwart block of Trump supporters, that has long meant embracing racism, from the Rev. Jerry Falwell’s lack of concern about apartheid South Africa (Bishop Desmond Tutu, he said, was a “phony”) to overwhelming pushback against accepting refugees. Dazzled by the promise of gold and scared at the prospect of having to share it, they worship a king instead of love.
Nebuchadnezzar’s sin wasn’t merely the creation of his golden idol. “Idolatry not only refers to false pagan worship,” explains the Catechism of the Catholic Church. “It remains a constant temptation to faith. Idolatry consists in divinizing what is not God. Man commits idolatry whenever he honors and reveres a creature in place of God, whether this be gods or demons (for example, satanism), power, pleasure, race, ancestors, the state, money, etc.”
John Adams also understood the broad nature of the term, writing with concern about “universal Idolatry to the Mammon of Unrighteousness.” He recognized how all tyrants, from Julius Caesar to corrupt governors, exploited “the mad Idolatry of the People,” which inevitably turned into “the surest Instruments of their own Servitude.”
Idolatry is the most dangerous form of religion—and of belief in general—because it mistakes outside for inside, form for reality, displays of piety for piety itself. Satan disguises himself as an angel of light, warns Second Corinthians—or, as Trump calls it, “Two Corinthians.” But disguises and displays do not disclose what matters, and using them has no transformative power. The people who revel in display are suspect, says the book Trump waves but does not read. “When you pray, you are not to be like the hypocrites; for they love to stand and pray in the synagogues and on the street corners so that they may be seen by men.”
Only idolaters would believe there is something evil in the mere act of Trump’s holding the Bible upside down or saying “two” instead of “second.” The display, in itself, has no power. No, the evil, as Jesus warned, is pretending that a display of religion is actual religion. The evil is confusing the good book with a good prop.
This should matter to all Americans. Even those who don’t care about the Bible should oppose drafting it into a photo-op. “I am outraged,” said Bishop Mariann Budde of St. John’s Church, when she heard how her place of worship had been desecrated by the photo-op. “He did not pray,” she added.
It was a desecration far more disgusting than any physical damage could ever be. Wrath and crime are bad, but they are easier to forgive than idolatry. That’s why church leaders responded differently to the basement fire set by rioters only hours earlier. “I want to point the attention back to where it really should be,” the church’s rector, the Rev. Robert Fisher, said, “which is the purpose of the protests, and the people who did what they did to the church do not represent the majority, who are here for reasons that we totally support.”
The phrase “virtue signaling” has special currency among Trump supporters and other critics of the political left, who see sin in displays of liberal ideology that go no further than furious hashtags and fair trade handbags. The phrase may be used overzealously, but it identifies a real problem—the prioritizing of appearances over action and authenticity.
It is hard to imagine a better example of it than the signal Trump sent from St. John’s, American flag pin on his lapel, posing for his spiritual pornography.
There is concern among some deeply religious Americans that secular liberalism poses a grave threat to their faith. The atheists, the socialists, the gay-marriers, and the abortion-havers. The godless educators who refuse to post the Ten Commandments. But the real threat to holy texts isn’t those who refuse to post them. It’s people who think that once you’ve posted them, there’s no more work to be done, and go right back to the unrighteous idolatry of mammon, blind to sin as long as it is draped in a flag or decorated with a cross.
Americans should all be terrified by this unholy political theater. Terrified because in this unprecedented crucible of intersecting crises, the United States needs genuine faith and love. Terrified because if Americans are shaped instead by hollow leaders holding empty symbols, they will emerge battered and broken and divided, incapable of distinguishing even the crassest propaganda from the truth. And terrified because, as the president gleefully calls in the military after posing with the unread word of Christ, the idolaters may have finally won.