foreignpolicy--2020-07-09--Not So Fast: How Biden Could Still Lose

Not So Fast: How Biden Could Still Lose

Judging from the polls , the presumptive Democratic nominee is so far ahead that experts are already comparing President Donald Trump to doomed incumbents of the past like Jimmy Carter , who was trounced by Ronald Reagan in 1980 .
At a moment of twin national crises—the coronavirus and racial turmoil—Trump ’ s performance has been nothing short of disastrous , by many accounts , harshly dividing the country at the very moment it needs a message of unity and amply demonstrating that he has no larger interest in mind than his own reelection .
And that ’ s what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ He hasn ’ t been equal to the multiple crises , ” Reagan ’ s former speechwriter , Peggy Noonan , wrote in the Wall Street Journal recently .
“ And everyone kind of knows.
” With the economy still dragging from coronavirus lockdowns—and the pandemic possibly resurgent—Trump is behind by double digits in every major national survey .
He is also losing in every major swing state , and the latest Gallup poll from June 8-30 has his approval rating steady at a nearly Carter-esque 38 percent .
“ This election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than simply a Blue wave , ” Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report wrote Wednesday .
But banking on negative feelings about Trump is a familiar danger zone for Democrats—he ’ s so bad that they will automatically be seen as good , they believe—and they have a hard time learning their lessons .
Complacency is their biggest pitfall : Just ask Hillary Clinton .
Whatever Trump is not in terms of presidential performance , he has proved over and over his Machiavellian talent for prodding Democratic weak spots , just as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rivals in the 2016 primaries .
Trump is already hard at work on that strategy .
Consider his Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore last Friday , in which he denounced protesters ’ defacing of statues and demands to tear down other monuments to the country ’ s past .
In the speech , Trump targeted what he called “ a merciless campaign to wipe out our history , defame our heroes , erase our values , and indoctrinate our children.
” So-called cancel culture , Trump said , “ is the very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completely alien to our culture and our values .
… Make no mistake : This left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution.
” Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth , a leading candidate to become Biden ’ s vice presidential pick , quickly took the bait and played right into Trump ’ s hands by criticizing him for spending “ all his time talking about dead traitors.
” She was referring to Trump ’ s defense of Confederate statues and military bases named after Confederate generals , but she also appeared to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monument—with its carved faces of George Washington , Thomas Jefferson , Theodore Roosevelt , and Abraham Lincoln—because it “ was standing on ground stolen from Native Americans.
” The conservative National Review magazine , which has often harshly criticized Trump , leapt to his defense .
“ At Mount Rushmore , Trump made a speech about the Revolution , not about the Confederacy , ” online editor Charles Cooke wrote , adding that “ what Trump actually said is exactly what we should want American presidents to say.
” Indeed , Trump did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Washington , and other major figures , and he did not mention Confederates ( though he has repeatedly said their statues should not be taken down and that he would veto a congressional bill renaming military bases honoring Confederate generals ) .
The clash swiftly escalated when the Trump campaign attacked Duckworth , a Thai American combat veteran who lost both her legs in Iraq , saying in a statement that she was “ using her military service to deflect from her support for the left-wing campaign to villainize America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was openly declaring , “ We are in a culture war.
” The president is plainly desperate to ensure that the Democrats continue to be dogged by the “ left-wing ” label—a fate many in the party thought they ’ d escaped when they dispatched Bernie Sanders in the primaries earlier this year .
Though Biden himself has been careful to distinguish between popular anger against Confederate statues and the treatment of monuments to the Founding Fathers , he was drawn into the fight as well , saying the attacks on Duckworth were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s going on in the White House right now.
” But on Monday , the Fox News analyst Brit Hume suggested that the Democrats ’ overreaction to Trump ’ s Mount Rushmore speech “ could be a turning point ” for the president if he “ has the good sense to respond to it effectively.
” Indeed , Trump may be exploiting very real new fears among mainstream voters over the spread of “ cancel culture ” and whether leftist zealotry is still infecting the Democratic Party .
On Tuesday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ letter signed by some of the president ’ s most vociferous liberal critics that took on the same issue , although what Trump had described as left-wing totalitarianism they called “ ideological conformity.
” The prominent intellectuals and writers who signed the letter—among them Gloria Steinem , Salman Rushdie , Malcolm Gladwell , and Noam Chomsky—said that even as “ [ p ] owerful protests for racial and social justice are leading to overdue demands for police reform , along with wider calls for greater equality and inclusion across our society , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through the excesses of political correctness .
“ The forces of illiberalism are gaining strength throughout the world and have a powerful ally in Donald Trump , who represents a real threat to democracy , ” the letter said .
“ But resistance must not be allowed to harden into its own brand of dogma or coercion—which right-wing demagogues are already exploiting.
” Some political pros believe Trump is already too associated with the far-right to win such a culture war .
“ I think Trump ’ s speech and war against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black Lives ’ protesters with radicals seeking to destroy the country , and his battle for heroes of the Confederacy are of a piece .
He is speaking to the white nationalists , and everybody knows it , ” said Stanley Greenberg , a prominent Democratic pollster who was critical of Clinton ’ s 2016 campaign .
Greenberg added that Biden was playing the political race—and the issue of race—correctly for now .
“ I see little risk here .
Trump ’ s defining the boundaries of the culture war , and Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current leads ” in the polls .
But Trump is defining the 2020 electoral agenda in other ways .
He has ramped up his isolationist and Sinophobic rhetoric—which is meeting less dissent thanks to the pandemic—and accused his rival of being soft on Beijing .
As he is doing with the culture war , Trump is forcing Biden to respond to his lead , rather than merely reacting to his challenger ’ s attacks .
A year ago , the former vice president was dismissing China as a strategic threat ; more recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against Beijing if he is elected president , calling its security law imposed on Hong Kong a “ death blow.
” Adding to Biden ’ s challenges , voters already know what Trump stands for—and what he ’ s going to run on for the next four months .
What Biden actually promises ( beyond getting rid of Trump ) is much less clear .
On Thursday , he made a start by releasing a new $ 700 billion “ Buy American ” recovery plan , but it wasn ’ t easy to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s own brand of economic nationalism—and the program fell short of his hints in recent months that he would abandon his moderation and seek to emulate Franklin D. Roosevelt ’ s New Deal .
Beyond that , Biden is still relying on his long and distinguished history of government service to mark him out as a competent steward .
The problem is that Clinton , Biden ’ s Democratic predecessor , also tried to coast into the White House on her long record ; Barack Obama once called her the most qualified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she proved to be an incompetent campaigner whose only coherent message was “ Don ’ t vote for him , ” that record wasn ’ t enough to save her .
That shouldn ’ t have been surprising ; presidential candidates rarely win elections without a clear , positive campaign message of their own .
Asked whether Biden might be in danger of falling into the same trap as Clinton , several Democratic strategists pooh-poohed the idea .
“ The fundamental problem for Trump is he ’ s no longer a challenger , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Neera Tanden , the president of the Center for American Progress , wrote in an email .
“ He has to own the problems.
” She added : “ Biden has plenty of policies .
But that is not what the race is over .
The race is about what kind of country we are going to be .
Biden has a coherent message .
He ’ s a decent man who will heal divisions .
That is an anti-Trump message .
But it ’ s also positive .
Biden has an asset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s the perfect foil.
” Perhaps , but many leading pundits also badly underestimated Trump ’ s appeal in 2016 .
In late June—before Trump ’ s Mount Rushmore speech—the Washington Post columnist Matt Bai argued that even as Trump won the presidency , most Americans “ soundly rejected Trump ’ s anti-immigrant agenda and anti-inclusive message.
” Bai dismissed the idea that “ Trump has some kind of magnetic , undetected hold on wide swaths of the American electorate.
” Echoing Clinton ’ s disastrous dismissal of Trump supporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump as “ a fringe figure preaching to a loud minority that can ’ t fill an arena in Oklahoma.
” But if Bai and others may be repeating the left ’ s mistakes from 2016 , a lot has changed since then .
Trump ’ s continuing appeal to racism , for example , has become virtually impossible to ignore ; he has even called the Black Lives Matter movement a “ symbol of hate.
” A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that Trump ’ s standing among his core @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that , despite the president ’ s rhetoric , a majority of Americans now support Black Lives Matter by a 28-point margin .
As for Trump ’ s other focus—isolationism—few American elections have been won on foreign policy , and U.S. voters today are more inward-focused than ever .
Meanwhile , Biden ’ s support among Black voters—the same voters who rescued his primary campaign—is growing .
Clinton performed poorly with this group .
But Trump ’ s white nationalism and Biden ’ s steady outreach to Black voters mean that an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference in November .
But Biden can ’ t take for granted that he ’ ll enjoy a boost from a large Black turnout in the general election .
Among other missteps , the then-senator ’ s sponsorship of a harsh 1994 criminal justice law continues to turn off some African American voters .
All this poses real dangers for a candidate who has often acted as his own worst enemy .
Biden has put his foot in his mouth many times before and can be expected to do so again before November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the chaotic , polarized , crisis-strewn world Trump has helped build .
So now is no time for complacency .

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden puts on his mask as he prepares to leave after speaking about the coronavirus pandemic and the economy in Wilmington, Delaware, on June 30. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
It’s only July, but Joe Biden is already starting to coast.
Judging from the polls, the presumptive Democratic nominee is so far ahead that experts are already comparing President Donald Trump to doomed incumbents of the past like Jimmy Carter, who was trounced by Ronald Reagan in 1980. At a moment of twin national crises—the coronavirus and racial turmoil—Trump’s performance has been nothing short of disastrous, by many accounts, harshly dividing the country at the very moment it needs a message of unity and amply demonstrating that he has no larger interest in mind than his own reelection.
And that’s what some Republicans are saying about him. “He hasn’t been equal to the multiple crises,” Reagan’s former speechwriter, Peggy Noonan, wrote in the Wall Street Journal recently. “And everyone kind of knows.” With the economy still dragging from coronavirus lockdowns—and the pandemic possibly resurgent—Trump is behind by double digits in every major national survey. He is also losing in every major swing state, and the latest Gallup poll from June 8-30 has his approval rating steady at a nearly Carter-esque 38 percent. “This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave,” Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report wrote Wednesday.
But banking on negative feelings about Trump is a familiar danger zone for Democrats—he’s so bad that they will automatically be seen as good, they believe—and they have a hard time learning their lessons. Complacency is their biggest pitfall: Just ask Hillary Clinton. Whatever Trump is not in terms of presidential performance, he has proved over and over his Machiavellian talent for prodding Democratic weak spots, just as he did so effectively against his Republican rivals in the 2016 primaries.
Trump is already hard at work on that strategy. Consider his Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore last Friday, in which he denounced protesters’ defacing of statues and demands to tear down other monuments to the country’s past. In the speech, Trump targeted what he called “a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children.” So-called cancel culture, Trump said, “is the very definition of totalitarianism, and it is completely alien to our culture and our values. … Make no mistake: This left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution.”
U.S. President Donald Trump arrives for Independence Day events at Mount Rushmore National Memorial in Keystone, South Dakota, on July 3.
Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth, a leading candidate to become Biden’s vice presidential pick, quickly took the bait and played right into Trump’s hands by criticizing him for spending “all his time talking about dead traitors.” She was referring to Trump’s defense of Confederate statues and military bases named after Confederate generals, but she also appeared to question the legitimacy of the Mount Rushmore monument—with its carved faces of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln—because it “was standing on ground stolen from Native Americans.” The conservative National Review magazine, which has often harshly criticized Trump, leapt to his defense. “At Mount Rushmore, Trump made a speech about the Revolution, not about the Confederacy,” online editor Charles Cooke wrote, adding that “what Trump actually said is exactly what we should want American presidents to say.”
Indeed, Trump did spend most of his speech praising Lincoln, Washington, and other major figures, and he did not mention Confederates (though he has repeatedly said their statues should not be taken down and that he would veto a congressional bill renaming military bases honoring Confederate generals). The clash swiftly escalated when the Trump campaign attacked Duckworth, a Thai American combat veteran who lost both her legs in Iraq, saying in a statement that she was “using her military service to deflect from her support for the left-wing campaign to villainize America’s founding.”
By this week, Trump was openly declaring, “We are in a culture war.” The president is plainly desperate to ensure that the Democrats continue to be dogged by the “left-wing” label—a fate many in the party thought they’d escaped when they dispatched Bernie Sanders in the primaries earlier this year. Though Biden himself has been careful to distinguish between popular anger against Confederate statues and the treatment of monuments to the Founding Fathers, he was drawn into the fight as well, saying the attacks on Duckworth were a “reflection of the depravity of what’s going on in the White House right now.” But on Monday, the Fox News analyst Brit Hume suggested that the Democrats’ overreaction to Trump’s Mount Rushmore speech “could be a turning point” for the president if he “has the good sense to respond to it effectively.”
Indeed, Trump may be exploiting very real new fears among mainstream voters over the spread of “cancel culture” and whether leftist zealotry is still infecting the Democratic Party. On Tuesday, Harper’s Magazine published an open letter signed by some of the president’s most vociferous liberal critics that took on the same issue, although what Trump had described as left-wing totalitarianism they called “ideological conformity.” The prominent intellectuals and writers who signed the letter—among them Gloria Steinem, Salman Rushdie, Malcolm Gladwell, and Noam Chomsky—said that even as “[p]owerful protests for racial and social justice are leading to overdue demands for police reform, along with wider calls for greater equality and inclusion across our society,” the movement may also be promoting intolerance through the excesses of political correctness. “The forces of illiberalism are gaining strength throughout the world and have a powerful ally in Donald Trump, who represents a real threat to democracy,” the letter said. “But resistance must not be allowed to harden into its own brand of dogma or coercion—which right-wing demagogues are already exploiting.”
Biden speaks via video as family and guests attend the funeral service for George Floyd at the Fountain of Praise church in Houston on June 9. Floyd was killed while in police custody in May, sparking global protests.
Some political pros believe Trump is already too associated with the far-right to win such a culture war. “I think Trump’s speech and war against the new America, his equating the ‘Black Lives’ protesters with radicals seeking to destroy the country, and his battle for heroes of the Confederacy are of a piece. He is speaking to the white nationalists, and everybody knows it,” said Stanley Greenberg, a prominent Democratic pollster who was critical of Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Greenberg added that Biden was playing the political race—and the issue of race—correctly for now. “I see little risk here. Trump’s defining the boundaries of the culture war, and Biden’s main focus only reinforces the current leads” in the polls.
But Trump is defining the 2020 electoral agenda in other ways. He has ramped up his isolationist and Sinophobic rhetoric—which is meeting less dissent thanks to the pandemic—and accused his rival of being soft on Beijing. As he is doing with the culture war, Trump is forcing Biden to respond to his lead, rather than merely reacting to his challenger’s attacks. A year ago, the former vice president was dismissing China as a strategic threat; more recently, Biden has threatened new economic sanctions against Beijing if he is elected president, calling its security law imposed on Hong Kong a “death blow.”
Adding to Biden’s challenges, voters already know what Trump stands for—and what he’s going to run on for the next four months. What Biden actually promises (beyond getting rid of Trump) is much less clear. On Thursday, he made a start by releasing a new $700 billion “Buy American” recovery plan, but it wasn’t easy to distinguish Biden’s ideas from president’s own brand of economic nationalism—and the program fell short of his hints in recent months that he would abandon his moderation and seek to emulate Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. Beyond that, Biden is still relying on his long and distinguished history of government service to mark him out as a competent steward. The problem is that Clinton, Biden’s Democratic predecessor, also tried to coast into the White House on her long record; Barack Obama once called her the most qualified presidential candidate in history. But when she proved to be an incompetent campaigner whose only coherent message was “Don’t vote for him,” that record wasn’t enough to save her. That shouldn’t have been surprising; presidential candidates rarely win elections without a clear, positive campaign message of their own.
Asked whether Biden might be in danger of falling into the same trap as Clinton, several Democratic strategists pooh-poohed the idea. “The fundamental problem for Trump is he’s no longer a challenger, he’s an incumbent,” Neera Tanden, the president of the Center for American Progress, wrote in an email. “He has to own the problems.” She added: “Biden has plenty of policies. But that is not what the race is over. The race is about what kind of country we are going to be. Biden has a coherent message. He’s a decent man who will heal divisions. That is an anti-Trump message. But it’s also positive. Biden has an asset. He’s hard to hate. It’s the perfect foil.”
Then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton makes her concession speech in New York on Nov. 9, 2016, after being defeated by Republican Donald Trump.
Perhaps, but many leading pundits also badly underestimated Trump’s appeal in 2016. In late June—before Trump’s Mount Rushmore speech—the Washington Post columnist Matt Bai argued that even as Trump won the presidency, most Americans “soundly rejected Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda and anti-inclusive message.” Bai dismissed the idea that “Trump has some kind of magnetic, undetected hold on wide swaths of the American electorate.” Echoing Clinton’s disastrous dismissal of Trump supporters as “deplorables,” Bai belittled Trump as “a fringe figure preaching to a loud minority that can’t fill an arena in Oklahoma.”
But if Bai and others may be repeating the left’s mistakes from 2016, a lot has changed since then. Trump’s continuing appeal to racism, for example, has become virtually impossible to ignore; he has even called the Black Lives Matter movement a “symbol of hate.” A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that Trump’s standing among his core white voters was slipping in battleground states and that, despite the president’s rhetoric, a majority of Americans now support Black Lives Matter by a 28-point margin. As for Trump’s other focus—isolationism—few American elections have been won on foreign policy, and U.S. voters today are more inward-focused than ever.
Meanwhile, Biden’s support among Black voters—the same voters who rescued his primary campaign—is growing. Clinton performed poorly with this group. But Trump’s white nationalism and Biden’s steady outreach to Black voters mean that an energized African American base might make the difference in November. But Biden can’t take for granted that he’ll enjoy a boost from a large Black turnout in the general election. Among other missteps, the then-senator’s sponsorship of a harsh 1994 criminal justice law continues to turn off some African American voters.
All this poses real dangers for a candidate who has often acted as his own worst enemy. Biden has put his foot in his mouth many times before and can be expected to do so again before November. Four months is a long time in the chaotic, polarized, crisis-strewn world Trump has helped build. So now is no time for complacency.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-09--Lukashenko Is Putin’s Future

Lukashenko Is Putin’s Future

The announcement that Russian President Vladimir Putin won last week ’ s national vote to rewrite the country ’ s constitution and allow himself to run twice more for president was not exactly a surprise .
Putin has a long track record of winning elections through a mix of genuine popularity , electoral skullduggery , and—most important of all—ensuring that no real alternatives are allowed on the ballot .
This most recent plebiscite took Putin-era elections to new depths of meaningless .
The constitutional changes had already been rubber-stamped by the requisite branches of Russia ’ s government by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote ’ s only purpose was to express a view on what Putin had already done .
According to the official tally , 78 percent of Russians who participated cast their vote in favor .
One interpretation is that the vote demonstrated the strengths of Putin ’ s political machine .
Despite a ravaging COVID-19 epidemic , a slump in the price of oil , and a severe economic downturn , the Kremlin was able to convince or coerce 65 percent of Russians to vote , and the vast majority of those to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence that outright fraud was more prevalent this time than in previous elections .
Or that the Kremlin offered prizes to lure people to the polls .
The ability to get a large number of people to show up for an utterly pointless vote demonstrates that the government retains its ability to mobilize at least a substantial chunk of the Russian populace .
After several months of bungling and obfuscation as the coronavirus tore through Russia , the Kremlin can claim competence at organizing a supposed election in traditional Russian style .
Putin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decides , as appears likely , to stick around in the Kremlin until 2036 .
His next time at the polls is not scheduled until 2024 , and he can rule for two more six-year terms .
This would let him remain president well into his 80s , potentially making him the oldest Russian leader in at least a century .
True , he must actually win the votes in 2024 and 2030 , but if he can pull off a plebiscite , we must assume that he can also win those , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the argument that the Kremlin ’ s spin doctors are making .
Putin remains somewhat popular , even if his approval rating is down substantially from earlier highs after Russia seized Crimea in 2014 .
He has hardly any credible rivals , in no small part because would-be rivals face spurious legal cases , jailing , and even violence .
And the Kremlin ’ s offering of nationalism coupled with social spending remains somewhat popular , even if the gap between promises and reality when it comes to living standards is growing ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and repressive politics have been a potent cocktail in Russia and other parts of the post-Soviet space .
But in the former Soviet country most like Russia—Belarus—something is going awry .
Belarus ’ s President Aleksandr Lukashenko faces reelection on Aug. 9 after a campaign that has already demonstrated the depth of his government ’ s unpopularity .
He may well win the election , most likely by locking up his opponents , but he can not shake the statistic that only 3 percent of the population supports him , as one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 , so his troubles can not be explained by a lack of political skill .
Compared to other European leaders , his approach to the coronavirus—denying its importance and recommending treatments such as vodka and tractor-driving—has been uniquely inept , sapping his popularity .
Yet the roots of Lukashenko ’ s dilemma are deeper .
After 26 years of ruling Belarus , his economic promises ring hollow , the salience of Soviet-era imagery is waning , and even the threats of repression appear to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see why Lukashenko ’ s promises of higher living standards no longer work .
Belarus , like Russia , is falling ever further behind neighbors such as Poland and Lithuania due to a period of economic stagnation that the pandemic has only deepened .
Soviet nostalgia has limits , too , as the Soviet era drifts ever further into history .
Lukashenko has gotten extraordinary political mileage out of lamenting the Soviet collapse and the socioeconomic crisis that followed .
But that was almost 30 years ago .
Well over a quarter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soviet Union ’ s demise .
It is growing ever harder to blame Belarus ’ problems today on these historical boogeymen .
The collapse in Lukashenko ’ s support will transform politics in Belarus even if the old dictator survives by jailing his rivals .
For the rest of the world , what happens in Belarus matters more as a glimpse into Russia ’ s potential future .
There is no country more similar to Russia than Belarus .
And Lukashenko is probably the best-known foreign politician in Russia .
A quarter of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should become a single country .
There are differences between the two countries , of course , most notably Russia ’ s great-power status , which enables Putin to wrap himself in the flag in a way that no Belarusian president ever can .
But the many similarities in the political platforms offered by Lukashenko and Putin—promises of social spending , Soviet nostalgia , and strongman tactics—mean that Lukashenko ’ s fate matters greatly for Russia ’ s future .
If Lukashenko relies more heavily on repression to retain power , it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared political promises are widely popular .
If Lukashenko is ousted , it would set a precedent very dangerous for Putin as he eyes 16 more years in power .
The Kremlin must hope that Lukashenko somehow restores his credibility , lest his popularity sink any deeper—and drag Putin down with him .

The announcement that Russian President Vladimir Putin won last week’s national vote to rewrite the country’s constitution and allow himself to run twice more for president was not exactly a surprise. Putin has a long track record of winning elections through a mix of genuine popularity, electoral skullduggery, and—most important of all—ensuring that no real alternatives are allowed on the ballot. This most recent plebiscite took Putin-era elections to new depths of meaningless. The constitutional changes had already been rubber-stamped by the requisite branches of Russia’s government by the time the vote occurred. So the vote’s only purpose was to express a view on what Putin had already done. According to the official tally, 78 percent of Russians who participated cast their vote in favor.
The announcement that Russian President Vladimir Putin won last week’s national vote to rewrite the country’s constitution and allow himself to run twice more for president was not exactly a surprise. Putin has a long track record of winning elections through a mix of genuine popularity, electoral skullduggery, and—most important of all—ensuring that no real alternatives are allowed on the ballot. This most recent plebiscite took Putin-era elections to new depths of meaningless. The constitutional changes had already been rubber-stamped by the requisite branches of Russia’s government by the time the vote occurred. So the vote’s only purpose was to express a view on what Putin had already done. According to the official tally, 78 percent of Russians who participated cast their vote in favor.
One interpretation is that the vote demonstrated the strengths of Putin’s political machine. Despite a ravaging COVID-19 epidemic, a slump in the price of oil, and a severe economic downturn, the Kremlin was able to convince or coerce 65 percent of Russians to vote, and the vast majority of those to vote in favor. Set aside the evidence that outright fraud was more prevalent this time than in previous elections. Or that the Kremlin offered prizes to lure people to the polls. The ability to get a large number of people to show up for an utterly pointless vote demonstrates that the government retains its ability to mobilize at least a substantial chunk of the Russian populace. After several months of bungling and obfuscation as the coronavirus tore through Russia, the Kremlin can claim competence at organizing a supposed election in traditional Russian style.
Putin now faces no legal obstacles if he decides, as appears likely, to stick around in the Kremlin until 2036. His next time at the polls is not scheduled until 2024, and he can rule for two more six-year terms. This would let him remain president well into his 80s, potentially making him the oldest Russian leader in at least a century. True, he must actually win the votes in 2024 and 2030, but if he can pull off a plebiscite, we must assume that he can also win those, too.
At least this that is the argument that the Kremlin’s spin doctors are making. Putin remains somewhat popular, even if his approval rating is down substantially from earlier highs after Russia seized Crimea in 2014. He has hardly any credible rivals, in no small part because would-be rivals face spurious legal cases, jailing, and even violence. And the Kremlin’s offering of nationalism coupled with social spending remains somewhat popular, even if the gap between promises and reality when it comes to living standards is growing ever wider.
Socioeconomic stability, Soviet nostalgia, and repressive politics have been a potent cocktail in Russia and other parts of the post-Soviet space. But in the former Soviet country most like Russia—Belarus—something is going awry. Belarus’s President Aleksandr Lukashenko faces reelection on Aug. 9 after a campaign that has already demonstrated the depth of his government’s unpopularity. He may well win the election, most likely by locking up his opponents, but he cannot shake the statistic that only 3 percent of the population supports him, as one opinion poll reported before Lukashenko banned polling.
Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, so his troubles cannot be explained by a lack of political skill. Compared to other European leaders, his approach to the coronavirus—denying its importance and recommending treatments such as vodka and tractor-driving—has been uniquely inept, sapping his popularity. Yet the roots of Lukashenko’s dilemma are deeper. After 26 years of ruling Belarus, his economic promises ring hollow, the salience of Soviet-era imagery is waning, and even the threats of repression appear to be losing their potency.
It is easy to see why Lukashenko’s promises of higher living standards no longer work. Belarus, like Russia, is falling ever further behind neighbors such as Poland and Lithuania due to a period of economic stagnation that the pandemic has only deepened. Soviet nostalgia has limits, too, as the Soviet era drifts ever further into history. Lukashenko has gotten extraordinary political mileage out of lamenting the Soviet collapse and the socioeconomic crisis that followed. But that was almost 30 years ago. Well over a quarter of the population was born after the Soviet Union’s demise. It is growing ever harder to blame Belarus’ problems today on these historical boogeymen.
The collapse in Lukashenko’s support will transform politics in Belarus even if the old dictator survives by jailing his rivals. For the rest of the world, what happens in Belarus matters more as a glimpse into Russia’s potential future. There is no country more similar to Russia than Belarus. And Lukashenko is probably the best-known foreign politician in Russia. A quarter of Russians even think that Belarus and Russia should become a single country.
There are differences between the two countries, of course, most notably Russia’s great-power status, which enables Putin to wrap himself in the flag in a way that no Belarusian president ever can. But the many similarities in the political platforms offered by Lukashenko and Putin—promises of social spending, Soviet nostalgia, and strongman tactics—mean that Lukashenko’s fate matters greatly for Russia’s future. If Lukashenko relies more heavily on repression to retain power, it will undermine Putin’s claim that their shared political promises are widely popular. If Lukashenko is ousted, it would set a precedent very dangerous for Putin as he eyes 16 more years in power. The Kremlin must hope that Lukashenko somehow restores his credibility, lest his popularity sink any deeper—and drag Putin down with him.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-09--China Wants to Be Lebanon’s Savior

China Wants to Be Lebanon’s Savior

China Wants to Be Lebanon ’ s Savior Beirut ’ s Little China restaurant is the city ’ s most prominent establishment that serves authentic Chinese food , and it ’ s a regular gathering place for people of Chinese origin .
It also serves as a symbol of China ’ s marginal role in Lebanese life more generally .
If Hassan Nasrallah , the chief of Hezbollah , has his way , that may soon change .
Nasrallah recently declared in a televised speech that Lebanon must “ look east ” to China for its salvation at its present @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear : Lebanon should not look to the International Monetary Fund .
His Lebanese audience was left befuddled .
The extent of crisis was evident—the country ’ s economy has nosedived , to calamitous effect , in recent weeks—but Lebanon , including some of its most reactionary conservatives , has always understood itself as an outpost of Western values and influence in the Middle East .
But Nasrallah is not alone among Lebanese policymakers in believing the country may soon have no choice but to enter China ’ s political and economic orbit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say , it could mark a new and uncertain chapter in the country ’ s history .
Lebanon ’ s economy is in shambles , threatening to join Zimbabwe or Venezuela as one of the world ’ s terminal economic disasters .
Since October 2019 , the Lebanese pound has lost 80 percent of its value and plummeted from its fixed exchange rate of 1,500 to the U.S. dollar to 8,000 last week on the black market .
Salaries earned in the local currency have turned worthless as prices of basic commodities have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including for bread ) have hit the middle and lower classes especially hard , and electricity cuts have become regular occurrences .
Some Lebanese have started resorting to barter , while the young and unemployed are increasingly opting for desperate measures to make a living .
A 24-year-old graduate recently walked from shop to shop in a downtown Beirut market popular with expatriates to sell freshly squeezed orange juice .
“ Hi , will you support me , please , ” he asked everyone plaintively .
But Lebanon ’ s ruling elite continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic reforms meant to halt corruption and restructure indebted banks , measures necessary to procure a $ 10 billion bailout from the IMF .
Two European diplomats told Foreign Policy that division between Lebanese political factions is the reason the IMF loan hasn ’ t yet come through .
Last week , Alain Bifani , one of Lebanon ’ s top negotiators with the IMF , resigned from his senior position at the finance ministry and was quoted as saying he had reached a “ dead end ” with the political and financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interests were obstructing the path to change , because any bailout envisioned a haircut of $ 3 billion on accounts held by the country ’ s most wealthy .
Millions of Lebanese have been braving a de facto haircut since banks imposed capital controls in mid-November 2019 and refused to let them withdraw their money .
A few days after Bifani ’ s resignation , talks with the IMF were suspended entirely .
Among the few countries able to productively mediate between the IMF and Lebanon would be the United States , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s largest contributor .
But , even as Lebanon ’ s economic crisis accelerates , the United States and Lebanon ’ s political actors have intensified their war of words .
Hezbollah has blamed the United States for deliberately stopping the flow of dollars to Lebanon , while the American representatives accused Hezbollah of hoarding dollars and large-scale smuggling .
Last week , a Lebanese judge reprimanded U.S .
Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea after she criticized Hezbollah .
He said she was “ pitting the Lebanese people against each other , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he banned media organizations from interviewing her for a year .
He added that any violation would be punished with a $ 200,000 fine .
( In a show of defiance , several local TV channels had the ambassador on air the same evening . )
The United States , by unilaterally imposing Caesar Act sanctions on the Syrian regime , has also prevented the Lebanese economy from benefiting from any reconstruction of its neighboring country .
Meanwhile , China , although it has little historic political presence in the region , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to replace the United States as the country ’ s dominant outside actor .
Chinese companies have been trying to launch big projects in Lebanon for almost a decade and have been especially eager to invest in Lebanon ’ s infrastructure .
Forty percent of Lebanese imports are already Chinese , and in the last few years Beijing has enhanced cultural ties by building a new Beirut music center .
It sent military aid during Lebanon ’ s 2006 war against Israel and deployed peacekeepers afterward .
During the coronavirus pandemic , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including testing kits .
At the height of Lebanon ’ s coronavirus outbreak , the country ’ s top doctors arranged for online conference calls with their Chinese counterparts for information on how best to deal with the health crisis .
Few originally thought China ’ s overtures would alter the basic calculations of Lebanon ’ s policymakers , given the Lebanese banking system ’ s dependence on the U.S. dollar and remittances from Lebanese expatriates in the West .
But Lebanon is now desperate enough to explore whatever help Beijing can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to investments from China , instead of a bailout from the IMF , as the panacea to Lebanon ’ s economic crisis , Lebanon ’ s prime minister met with the Chinese ambassador to seek China ’ s help and expand economic cooperation .
China ’ s interest in the Middle East is anchored in the Belt and Road Initiative that aims to expand Chinese influence around the world through economic ties .
China wants to resurrect long-decayed road and rail links between Beirut and Tripoli on Lebanon ’ s Mediterranean coast to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and beyond , as part of a broader infrastructure network it controls across Eurasia .
Reducing U.S. influence in Lebanon would be a bonus .
Some Lebanese are intrigued by the prospects of partnering with a dynamic China .
But many political observers , including some in government , are more circumspect , wary of potential exploitation .
A member of parliament , speaking to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity , said he was doubtful if “ Americanized ” Lebanese would embrace China if that required loosening ties with the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the readiness of the Lebanese first , ” he said , “ and if the Chinese conditions are going to be acceptable.
” Camille Abu Suleiman , Lebanon ’ s former labor minister , said that even though he welcomed Chinese investments in principle , the reports of their track record had reached Lebanon .
Beijing is infamous for laying so-called debt traps—offering quick loans to build infrastructure in underdeveloped countries but at an unusually high-interest rate .
When the country is unable to pay the debt , China simply seizes the assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see Lebanon getting back on its feet without an IMF program , ” Suleiman said .
Sami Nader , a Lebanese political analyst , shared a similar view .
“ Chinese investments will yield results in five to six years .
By then Lebanon will be dead , ” he said .
“ We need liquidity now , we need an IMF loan .
And how does China expect us to pay it back ?
” Shen Dingli , a leading Chinese foreign-policy expert , said Beijing did not need every country it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can afford to be a soft power to expand its clout globally .
“ When we were poor , the U.S. helped us .
We remember that .
Now we are in a position to help others , ” he said implying China was readying to be the next United States .
“ We can gift a few hundred million dollars to countries who , for instance , promise to support us on Taiwan internationally.
” For those protesting on Lebanon ’ s streets , the priority isn ’ t just immediate survival @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country does not quickly end up in the same situation again .
For them , that ’ s why help from China—which has long been known to turn a blind eye to malfeasance by the foreign politicians it loans money to—seems the least attractive option on offer .
But the Lebanese are also acutely aware that they are running out of time .

Beirut’s Little China restaurant is the city’s most prominent establishment that serves authentic Chinese food, and it’s a regular gathering place for people of Chinese origin. It also serves as a symbol of China’s marginal role in Lebanese life more generally.
If Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Hezbollah, has his way, that may soon change. Nasrallah recently declared in a televised speech that Lebanon must “look east” to China for its salvation at its present time of crisis. The implication was clear: Lebanon should not look to the International Monetary Fund. His Lebanese audience was left befuddled. The extent of crisis was evident—the country’s economy has nosedived, to calamitous effect, in recent weeks—but Lebanon, including some of its most reactionary conservatives, has always understood itself as an outpost of Western values and influence in the Middle East.
But Nasrallah is not alone among Lebanese policymakers in believing the country may soon have no choice but to enter China’s political and economic orbit. If that happens, political analysts say, it could mark a new and uncertain chapter in the country’s history.
Lebanon’s economy is in shambles, threatening to join Zimbabwe or Venezuela as one of the world’s terminal economic disasters. Since October 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost 80 percent of its value and plummeted from its fixed exchange rate of 1,500 to the U.S. dollar to 8,000 last week on the black market. Salaries earned in the local currency have turned worthless as prices of basic commodities have tripled. Rises in food prices (including for bread) have hit the middle and lower classes especially hard, and electricity cuts have become regular occurrences. Some Lebanese have started resorting to barter, while the young and unemployed are increasingly opting for desperate measures to make a living. A 24-year-old graduate recently walked from shop to shop in a downtown Beirut market popular with expatriates to sell freshly squeezed orange juice. “Hi, will you support me, please,” he asked everyone plaintively.
But Lebanon’s ruling elite continue to drag their feet on political and economic reforms meant to halt corruption and restructure indebted banks, measures necessary to procure a $10 billion bailout from the IMF. Two European diplomats told Foreign Policy that division between Lebanese political factions is the reason the IMF loan hasn’t yet come through. Last week, Alain Bifani, one of Lebanon’s top negotiators with the IMF, resigned from his senior position at the finance ministry and was quoted as saying he had reached a “dead end” with the political and financial elite. He said those with vested interests were obstructing the path to change, because any bailout envisioned a haircut of $3 billion on accounts held by the country’s most wealthy. Millions of Lebanese have been braving a de facto haircut since banks imposed capital controls in mid-November 2019 and refused to let them withdraw their money. A few days after Bifani’s resignation, talks with the IMF were suspended entirely.
Among the few countries able to productively mediate between the IMF and Lebanon would be the United States, a traditional ally of Beirut and the fund’s largest contributor. But, even as Lebanon’s economic crisis accelerates, the United States and Lebanon’s political actors have intensified their war of words. Hezbollah has blamed the United States for deliberately stopping the flow of dollars to Lebanon, while the American representatives accused Hezbollah of hoarding dollars and large-scale smuggling. Last week, a Lebanese judge reprimanded U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea after she criticized Hezbollah. He said she was “pitting the Lebanese people against each other,” and, in an unprecedented move, he banned media organizations from interviewing her for a year. He added that any violation would be punished with a $200,000 fine. (In a show of defiance, several local TV channels had the ambassador on air the same evening.) The United States, by unilaterally imposing Caesar Act sanctions on the Syrian regime, has also prevented the Lebanese economy from benefiting from any reconstruction of its neighboring country.
Meanwhile, China, although it has little historic political presence in the region, is waiting in the wings, prepared to replace the United States as the country’s dominant outside actor. Chinese companies have been trying to launch big projects in Lebanon for almost a decade and have been especially eager to invest in Lebanon’s infrastructure. Forty percent of Lebanese imports are already Chinese, and in the last few years Beijing has enhanced cultural ties by building a new Beirut music center. It sent military aid during Lebanon’s 2006 war against Israel and deployed peacekeepers afterward. During the coronavirus pandemic, it exercised soft diplomacy and supplied medical assistance, including testing kits. At the height of Lebanon’s coronavirus outbreak, the country’s top doctors arranged for online conference calls with their Chinese counterparts for information on how best to deal with the health crisis.
Few originally thought China’s overtures would alter the basic calculations of Lebanon’s policymakers, given the Lebanese banking system’s dependence on the U.S. dollar and remittances from Lebanese expatriates in the West. But Lebanon is now desperate enough to explore whatever help Beijing can give. Soon after Hezbollah suggested turning to investments from China, instead of a bailout from the IMF, as the panacea to Lebanon’s economic crisis, Lebanon’s prime minister met with the Chinese ambassador to seek China’s help and expand economic cooperation.
China’s interest in the Middle East is anchored in the Belt and Road Initiative that aims to expand Chinese influence around the world through economic ties. China wants to resurrect long-decayed road and rail links between Beirut and Tripoli on Lebanon’s Mediterranean coast to the Syrian cities of Damascus and Homs, and beyond, as part of a broader infrastructure network it controls across Eurasia. Reducing U.S. influence in Lebanon would be a bonus.
Some Lebanese are intrigued by the prospects of partnering with a dynamic China. But many political observers, including some in government, are more circumspect, wary of potential exploitation. A member of parliament, speaking to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity, said he was doubtful if “Americanized” Lebanese would embrace China if that required loosening ties with the United States. “We need to assess the readiness of the Lebanese first,” he said, “and if the Chinese conditions are going to be acceptable.” Camille Abu Suleiman, Lebanon’s former labor minister, said that even though he welcomed Chinese investments in principle, the reports of their track record had reached Lebanon. Beijing is infamous for laying so-called debt traps—offering quick loans to build infrastructure in underdeveloped countries but at an unusually high-interest rate. When the country is unable to pay the debt, China simply seizes the assets. “I don’t ever see Lebanon getting back on its feet without an IMF program,” Suleiman said.
Sami Nader, a Lebanese political analyst, shared a similar view. “Chinese investments will yield results in five to six years. By then Lebanon will be dead,” he said. “We need liquidity now, we need an IMF loan. And how does China expect us to pay it back?” Shen Dingli, a leading Chinese foreign-policy expert, said Beijing did not need every country it helped to pay the loan back and can afford to be a soft power to expand its clout globally. “When we were poor, the U.S. helped us. We remember that. Now we are in a position to help others,” he said implying China was readying to be the next United States. “We can gift a few hundred million dollars to countries who, for instance, promise to support us on Taiwan internationally.”
For those protesting on Lebanon’s streets, the priority isn’t just immediate survival but institutional reforms against corruption that ensure the country does not quickly end up in the same situation again. For them, that’s why help from China—which has long been known to turn a blind eye to malfeasance by the foreign politicians it loans money to—seems the least attractive option on offer. But the Lebanese are also acutely aware that they are running out of time.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-10--Poland’s Presidential Race Is Down To The Wire

Poland ’ s Presidential Race Is Down To The Wire Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Poland ’ s presidential race enters its final days , the mayor of Seoul is found dead , and the United Nations Security Council votes on Syria aid .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Polish President Andrzej Duda faces off against his liberal opponent Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski this Sunday in one of the first tests of right-wing populism in the age of coronavirus .
Polls show the race is too close to call with the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of votes to Duda ’ s 49.4 percent .
A Trzaskowski victory on Sunday would represent a consolidation of support for those opposed to the rule of the right-wing Law and Justice party ( PiS ) .
The Warsaw mayor only managed to win 30.5 percent of votes in the first round of voting on June 28 but may gain support from those who backed other opposition candidates and from Polish expat voters , who have recently registered in large numbers .
On a practical level , it would allow him to veto @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Trzaskowski win would leave Poland ’ s ties with the United States is less clear .
Trump has shown an affinity for Duda , making him the first visitor to the White House since the coronavirus pandemic began .
If the less nationalistic Trzaskowski wins , it could dilute the White House ’ s interest in deepening its relationship .
A familiar trick .
As the race entered its final week , Duda has leaned on a tactic familiar to U.S. readers : culture war .
On Monday , Duda proposed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adopting children .
It follows his remarks that the movement for LGBTQ rights is an “ ideology ” worse than communism earlier in the campaign .
And an old one .
Duda has tapped into nationalism , too .
While attacking a tabloid for publishing a negative story about him , Duda suggested that the newspaper ’ s German owners were responsible for the hostility shown toward him .
A party “ cog ” versus a “ youthful enigma.
” Writing in Foreign Policy before the first round of the election , Dariusz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trzaskowski , both 48 , have taken to get to this point .
Kalan suggested that the challenger could repeat history .
“ In many ways , Trzaskowski is now who Duda was five years ago : a youthful enigma challenging a strong incumbent while promising to unite the nation , ” Kalan wrote .
Seoul mayor found dead .
Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon was found dead in the city just days after a secretary in his office filed a police report alleging that he had been sexually harassing her since 2017 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ successor to President Moon Jae-in and had built a career as an outspoken defender of women ’ s rights .
If his death is ruled a suicide , he would be the third high-ranking South Korean official to take his life over the past 11 years : former President Roh Moo-hyun killed himself in 2009 and liberal politician Roh Hoe-chan followed in 2018 .
Both had faced corruption charges .
U.N. Security Council votes on Syrian aid .
A U.N. mandate to deliver aid across the Turkish border into Syria expires today , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote on a resolution put forward by Germany and Belgium to extend it by six months .
An earlier amendment to the resolution put forward by Russia would have reduced the number of border crossing points from two to one ; it was rejected by the council on Thursday .
Permanent members Russia and China argue that cross-border aid is unnecessary and can be managed by Syrian government authorities .
Singapore votes .
Singaporeans go to the polls today in the first general election in Southeast Asia since the coronavirus pandemic began .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ PAP ) is expected to win comfortably , although the margin of victory should provide an insight into how happy citizens are with the PAP , which has held power since 1965 .
The famously strict nation has put special controls in place to mitigate the spread of coronavirus on election day .
Voters have been assigned a two-hour slot in which to cast their vote to reduce overcrowding ; older voters are given priority in the morning hours ; and patients infected with COVID-19 or quarantining at home are not allowed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Uighur treatment .
The United States imposed sanctions on four Chinese officials on Thursday over alleged abuse of China ’ s Uighur minority in Xinjiang .
Xinjiang ’ s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo , a member of China ’ s Politburo , was among those sanctioned and is the highest profile official to be targeted so far .
The move represents a shift in strategy from the White House : In June , U.S. President Donald Trump admitted to Axios that he had held off sanctioning Chinese officials connected with Xinjiang for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Biden would review Germany troop move .
A senior foreign-policy aide for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said that he would review a recent Trump administration decision to remove 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany were Biden to win the presidency in November .
Tony Blinken , a former high-ranking State department official , said the campaign has “ a profound problem with the substance ” of the decision on troop levels and that any move would be part of a broader evaluation of Trump ’ s actions in office .
“ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Trump has taken , including that one , ” Blinken said .
Despite promising polls , a Biden victory is by no means a foregone conclusion , FP ’ s Michael Hirsh writes .
Democrats have been here before : “ Complacency is their biggest pitfall : Just ask Hillary Clinton , ” Hirsh writes .
Asylum seekers meet coronavirus roadblock .
The Trump administration has added to its anti-immigration policies by publishing a new rule that would deny asylum seekers entry to the United States if they are deemed a public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. authorities to block immigrants from seeking asylum because of “ potential international threats from the spread of pandemics.
” The decision would be made at the first level of screening for asylum seekers , not in an immigration court .
Jennifer Minear , president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association , said the new rule was an attempt to “ scapegoat vulnerable people ” and that the “ real threat of COVID-19 is not outside our nation ’ s borders but within them.
” Eurozone to add two more countries .
Eurozone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take the preliminary steps necessary before adopting the euro as their national currency , according to Reuters sources .
It would be the first addition to the eurozone since Lithuania joined the group in 2015 .
Once they initiate the process , Croatia and Bulgaria will likely have to wait until 2023 before they would be accepted as full members of the currency alliance .
Ivory Coast president may run again .
Ruling party leaders have urged Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara to make a U-turn on his pledge not to stand for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly , his designated candidate .
Ouattara has until a September 1 deadline to decide whether to run again .
New Zealand ’ s strict coronavirus quarantine rules have come under pressure following three “ escapes ” from managed isolation facilities in recent days .
The most recent breakout involved a man in his 50s who left his quarantine center and cut through a fence in order to visit the nearest liquor store .
The man has since been taken into police custody , and authorities conducted a cleaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business .
The escape follows one by a woman who also left her hotel only to lose her way .
She eventually asked a police patrol for directions back to isolation .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Poland ’s presidential race enters its final days, the mayor of Seoul is found dead, and the United Nations Security Council votes on Syria aid .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Poland’s presidential race enters its final days, the mayor of Seoul is found dead, and the United Nations Security Council votes on Syria aid.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Poland’s Race Is Too Close To Call
Polish President Andrzej Duda faces off against his liberal opponent Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski this Sunday in one of the first tests of right-wing populism in the age of coronavirus.
Polls show the race is too close to call with the most recent one showing Trzaskowski winning 50.6 percent of votes to Duda’s 49.4 percent.
A Trzaskowski victory on Sunday would represent a consolidation of support for those opposed to the rule of the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS). The Warsaw mayor only managed to win 30.5 percent of votes in the first round of voting on June 28 but may gain support from those who backed other opposition candidates and from Polish expat voters, who have recently registered in large numbers. On a practical level, it would allow him to veto legislation from the PiS-controlled parliament.
Where a Trzaskowski win would leave Poland’s ties with the United States is less clear. Trump has shown an affinity for Duda, making him the first visitor to the White House since the coronavirus pandemic began. If the less nationalistic Trzaskowski wins, it could dilute the White House’s interest in deepening its relationship.
A familiar trick. As the race entered its final week, Duda has leaned on a tactic familiar to U.S. readers: culture war. On Monday, Duda proposed a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex couples from adopting children. It follows his remarks that the movement for LGBTQ rights is an “ideology” worse than communism earlier in the campaign.
And an old one. Duda has tapped into nationalism, too. While attacking a tabloid for publishing a negative story about him, Duda suggested that the newspaper’s German owners were responsible for the hostility shown toward him.
A party “cog” versus a “youthful enigma.” Writing in Foreign Policy before the first round of the election, Dariusz Kalan charted the diverging paths Duda and Trzaskowski, both 48, have taken to get to this point. Kalan suggested that the challenger could repeat history. “In many ways, Trzaskowski is now who Duda was five years ago: a youthful enigma challenging a strong incumbent while promising to unite the nation,” Kalan wrote.
What We’re Following Today
Seoul mayor found dead. Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon was found dead in the city just days after a secretary in his office filed a police report alleging that he had been sexually harassing her since 2017. Park had been touted as a potential successor to President Moon Jae-in and had built a career as an outspoken defender of women’s rights. If his death is ruled a suicide, he would be the third high-ranking South Korean official to take his life over the past 11 years: former President Roh Moo-hyun killed himself in 2009 and liberal politician Roh Hoe-chan followed in 2018. Both had faced corruption charges.
U.N. Security Council votes on Syrian aid. A U.N. mandate to deliver aid across the Turkish border into Syria expires today, and so the U.N. Security Council will vote on a resolution put forward by Germany and Belgium to extend it by six months. An earlier amendment to the resolution put forward by Russia would have reduced the number of border crossing points from two to one; it was rejected by the council on Thursday. Permanent members Russia and China argue that cross-border aid is unnecessary and can be managed by Syrian government authorities.
Singapore votes. Singaporeans go to the polls today in the first general election in Southeast Asia since the coronavirus pandemic began. The People’s Action Party (PAP) is expected to win comfortably, although the margin of victory should provide an insight into how happy citizens are with the PAP, which has held power since 1965. The famously strict nation has put special controls in place to mitigate the spread of coronavirus on election day. Voters have been assigned a two-hour slot in which to cast their vote to reduce overcrowding; older voters are given priority in the morning hours; and patients infected with COVID-19 or quarantining at home are not allowed to vote.
U.S. sanctions Chinese officials over Uighur treatment. The United States imposed sanctions on four Chinese officials on Thursday over alleged abuse of China’s Uighur minority in Xinjiang. Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, a member of China’s Politburo, was among those sanctioned and is the highest profile official to be targeted so far. The move represents a shift in strategy from the White House: In June, U.S. President Donald Trump admitted to Axios that he had held off sanctioning Chinese officials connected with Xinjiang for fear of jeopardizing a U.S.-China trade deal.
Biden would review Germany troop move. A senior foreign-policy aide for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said that he would review a recent Trump administration decision to remove 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany were Biden to win the presidency in November. Tony Blinken, a former high-ranking State department official, said the campaign has “a profound problem with the substance” of the decision on troop levels and that any move would be part of a broader evaluation of Trump’s actions in office. “We would review all of the decisions that President Trump has taken, including that one,” Blinken said.
Despite promising polls, a Biden victory is by no means a foregone conclusion, FP’s Michael Hirsh writes. Democrats have been here before: “Complacency is their biggest pitfall: Just ask Hillary Clinton,” Hirsh writes.
Keep an Eye On
Asylum seekers meet coronavirus roadblock. The Trump administration has added to its anti-immigration policies by publishing a new rule that would deny asylum seekers entry to the United States if they are deemed a public health risk. The rule would allow U.S. authorities to block immigrants from seeking asylum because of “potential international threats from the spread of pandemics.” The decision would be made at the first level of screening for asylum seekers, not in an immigration court. Jennifer Minear, president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, said the new rule was an attempt to “scapegoat vulnerable people” and that the “real threat of COVID-19 is not outside our nation’s borders but within them.”
Eurozone to add two more countries. Eurozone officials will allow Croatia and Bulgaria to take the preliminary steps necessary before adopting the euro as their national currency, according to Reuters sources. It would be the first addition to the eurozone since Lithuania joined the group in 2015. Once they initiate the process, Croatia and Bulgaria will likely have to wait until 2023 before they would be accepted as full members of the currency alliance.
Ivory Coast president may run again. Ruling party leaders have urged Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara to make a U-turn on his pledge not to stand for a third term following the death of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, his designated candidate. Ouattara has until a September 1 deadline to decide whether to run again.
Odds and Ends
New Zealand’s strict coronavirus quarantine rules have come under pressure following three “escapes” from managed isolation facilities in recent days. The most recent breakout involved a man in his 50s who left his quarantine center and cut through a fence in order to visit the nearest liquor store. The man has since been taken into police custody, and authorities conducted a cleaning of the store before it could resume business. The escape follows one by a woman who also left her hotel only to lose her way. She eventually asked a police patrol for directions back to isolation.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-10--The International Aid Sector Faces a Reckoning

Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : Some 1,000 Doctors Without Borders staff have signed a statement accusing the organization of institutional racism , Russia cracks down on journalists and activists after last week ’ s referendum , and a new report implicates Burkina Faso ’ s security forces in extrajudicial killings .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , please sign up here .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the letter , which was signed by a number of senior staff and board members .
MSF ’ s international president welcomed the statement as a “ catalyst ” to speed up the implementation of a series of commitments to tackle institutional racism within the organization that were outlined by the MSF U.K. Board of Trustees last month .
Global reckoning .
The protests against racism and the legacies of colonialism triggered by the police killing of George Floyd in May has ignited debate within the international aid sector—long accused of perpetuating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ south .
Writing in Foreign Policy , Olivia U. Rutazibwa described the concepts of aid and international development as “ built on a profound whitewashing of history ” and called for a new kind of international relations that would engage with and repair the devastating legacies of colonialism .
Beyond foreign aid .
The shortcomings of international aid efforts were highlighted in a withering report published on Monday , in which the outgoing United Nations special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights , Philip Alston , accused world leaders , international organizations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on declining global poverty rates based on World Bank metrics that use a definition of poverty set so low as to be almost meaningless .
Alston takes aim in particular at the overreliance on private donors in international aid efforts , as well as tax havens : “ Philanthropy is less likely to expose and tackle unjust underlying structures , ” he writes .
Blocks on Syrian aid .
Russia and China have vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would have allowed humanitarian aid to continue to be delivered into Syria via @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The council is set to vote later on Friday on a Russian proposal to approve aid deliveries from Turkey through a single border crossing .
The U.N. described the aid deliveries from Turkey as a “ lifeline ” for the millions of Syrian civilians in the country ’ s mostly rebel-held northwest , which would be badly disrupted by reducing the number of border crossings .
If no agreement is reached by the end of the day , all aid deliveries across the Turkish border will cease .
Russia and China , allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argued that the region can be reached with aid deliveries from within Syria , a move likely intended to undermine rebel control .
Crackdown follows Russian vote .
Since last week ’ s constitutional referendum that could extend Russian President Vladimir Putin ’ s power until 2036 , a number of high-profile journalists , activists , and government officials have been arrested or sentenced in a sweeping crackdown on dissent .
On Tuesday , the former defense journalist Ivan Safronov was arrested and charged with treason for allegedly passing classified defense information to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the arrest is politically motivated .
And on Thursday , the governor of Russia ’ s far-eastern Khabarovsk region , Sergei Furgal , was arrested on suspicion of organizing the murders of his former business associates 15 years ago .
Furgal beat the Kremlin ’ s candidate in tightly controlled 2018 gubernatorial elections—a rare upset .
Aleksei Vorsin , who leads the local office of the opposition politician Alexei Navalny , told RFE/RL that he wouldn ’ t he couldn ’ t rule out Furgal ’ s involvement in the murders , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his arrest given his popularity .
Korean mayor found dead .
Mayor of Seoul Park Won-soon , 64 , has apparently died by suicide .
His body was found on Friday in a wooded area on Mount Bukak , in the center of the South Korean capital , several hours after his daughter first reported Park missing .
A police spokesperson said that there were no suspicions of foul play .
Days before his death , the mayor ’ s former secretary filed a criminal complaint against him alleging that he had sexually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him in 2017 .
A representative of the Park family quickly urged the public not to spread “ groundless statements ” about the mayor , who had governed the city for almost 10 years .
Park , a member of the liberal Democratic Party , was seen as a possible future national leader .
Protests in Serbia .
Belgrade was rocked by violent protests this week as the Serbian government announced plans for a second lockdown amid rising coronavirus cases .
Dozens of protesters and police were injured .
The Council of Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mijatovic , voiced concerns about the “ violent dispersal of demonstrators ” by police .
The protests responded directly to the new three-day lockdown , but they were also seen as an expression of wider frustration with the government ’ s handling of the pandemic—and anger with the increasing authoritarianism of President Aleksandar Vucic , whose party won by a landslide in elections last month amid an opposition boycott .
Extrajudicial killings in Burkina Faso .
Since November 2019 , at least 180 civilians have been killed in the town of Djibo , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ published by Human Rights Watch on Wednesday .
Their bodies were found in groups of three to 20 alongside highways , under bridges , and in vacant lots .
Eyewitness reports gathered by Human Rights Watch suggest that government security forces may have been involved in the extrajudicial killings .
“ The Burkina Faso authorities need to urgently uncover who turned Djibo into a ‘ killing field , ’ ” said Corinne Dufka , the organization ’ s Sahel director .
Since 2015 , government forces in Burkina Faso have fought militants aligned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have killed hundreds of civilians in executions and targeted attacks .
But the Burkinabe army has also been accused of committing atrocities against civilians , fueling terrorist recruitment .
Poverty haunts Latin America .
A U.N. report released on Thursday indicates that some 45 million Latin Americans could be pushed into poverty in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic .
In addition to the region ’ s estimated 9.1 percent drop in GDP this year , a lack of adequate health care and access to potable water is expected to exacerbate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.N. has urged countries to implement an emergency basic income .
In a statement , U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for the international community to support an urgent rescue and recovery package for Latin America and the Caribbean , including financial assistance and debt relief .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: Some 1,000 Doctors Without Borders staff have signed a statement accusing the organization of institutional racism, Russia cracks down on journalists and activists after last week’s referendum, and a new report implicates Burkina Faso’s security forces in extrajudicial killings.
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MSF Staff Condemn Institutional Racism Some 1,000 current and former Doctors Without Borders staff members signed a statement, first reported on Friday, that describes the organization as institutionally racist and accuses it of reinforcing white supremacy and colonialism in its work. The group, known by the French abbreviation MSF, is one of the largest aid organizations in the world and provides humanitarian health care in over 70 countries. The letter calls for an independent review of the organization, as well as urgent reforms to undo “decades of power and paternalism.”
The Guardian was the first to report on the letter, which was signed by a number of senior staff and board members. MSF’s international president welcomed the statement as a “catalyst” to speed up the implementation of a series of commitments to tackle institutional racism within the organization that were outlined by the MSF U.K. Board of Trustees last month.
Global reckoning. The protests against racism and the legacies of colonialism triggered by the police killing of George Floyd in May has ignited debate within the international aid sector—long accused of perpetuating colonial white savior attitudes in the global south. Writing in Foreign Policy, Olivia U. Rutazibwa described the concepts of aid and international development as “built on a profound whitewashing of history” and called for a new kind of international relations that would engage with and repair the devastating legacies of colonialism.
Beyond foreign aid. The shortcomings of international aid efforts were highlighted in a withering report published on Monday, in which the outgoing United Nations special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Philip Alston, accused world leaders, international organizations, and economists of harboring misplaced optimism on declining global poverty rates based on World Bank metrics that use a definition of poverty set so low as to be almost meaningless. Alston takes aim in particular at the overreliance on private donors in international aid efforts, as well as tax havens: “Philanthropy is less likely to expose and tackle unjust underlying structures,” he writes.
What We’re Following
Blocks on Syrian aid. Russia and China have vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would have allowed humanitarian aid to continue to be delivered into Syria via two points along the Turkish border. The council is set to vote later on Friday on a Russian proposal to approve aid deliveries from Turkey through a single border crossing. The U.N. described the aid deliveries from Turkey as a “lifeline” for the millions of Syrian civilians in the country’s mostly rebel-held northwest, which would be badly disrupted by reducing the number of border crossings.
If no agreement is reached by the end of the day, all aid deliveries across the Turkish border will cease. Russia and China, allies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, have argued that the region can be reached with aid deliveries from within Syria, a move likely intended to undermine rebel control.
Crackdown follows Russian vote. Since last week’s constitutional referendum that could extend Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power until 2036, a number of high-profile journalists, activists, and government officials have been arrested or sentenced in a sweeping crackdown on dissent. On Tuesday, the former defense journalist Ivan Safronov was arrested and charged with treason for allegedly passing classified defense information to the Czech intelligence services. Observers say the arrest is politically motivated.
And on Thursday, the governor of Russia’s far-eastern Khabarovsk region, Sergei Furgal, was arrested on suspicion of organizing the murders of his former business associates 15 years ago. Furgal beat the Kremlin’s candidate in tightly controlled 2018 gubernatorial elections—a rare upset. Aleksei Vorsin, who leads the local office of the opposition politician Alexei Navalny, told RFE/RL that he wouldn’t he couldn’t rule out Furgal’s involvement in the murders, but he pointed to possible political subtext of his arrest given his popularity.
Korean mayor found dead. Mayor of Seoul Park Won-soon, 64, has apparently died by suicide. His body was found on Friday in a wooded area on Mount Bukak, in the center of the South Korean capital, several hours after his daughter first reported Park missing. A police spokesperson said that there were no suspicions of foul play. Days before his death, the mayor’s former secretary filed a criminal complaint against him alleging that he had sexually harassed her since she began working for him in 2017.
A representative of the Park family quickly urged the public not to spread “groundless statements” about the mayor, who had governed the city for almost 10 years. Park, a member of the liberal Democratic Party, was seen as a possible future national leader.
Keep an Eye On
Protests in Serbia. Belgrade was rocked by violent protests this week as the Serbian government announced plans for a second lockdown amid rising coronavirus cases. Dozens of protesters and police were injured. The Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner, Dunja Mijatovic, voiced concerns about the “violent dispersal of demonstrators” by police. The protests responded directly to the new three-day lockdown, but they were also seen as an expression of wider frustration with the government’s handling of the pandemic—and anger with the increasing authoritarianism of President Aleksandar Vucic, whose party won by a landslide in elections last month amid an opposition boycott.
Extrajudicial killings in Burkina Faso. Since November 2019, at least 180 civilians have been killed in the town of Djibo, Burkina Faso, according to a report published by Human Rights Watch on Wednesday. Their bodies were found in groups of three to 20 alongside highways, under bridges, and in vacant lots. Eyewitness reports gathered by Human Rights Watch suggest that government security forces may have been involved in the extrajudicial killings. “The Burkina Faso authorities need to urgently uncover who turned Djibo into a ‘killing field,’” said Corinne Dufka, the organization’s Sahel director.
Since 2015, government forces in Burkina Faso have fought militants aligned with the Islamic State and al Qaeda who have killed hundreds of civilians in executions and targeted attacks. But the Burkinabe army has also been accused of committing atrocities against civilians, fueling terrorist recruitment.
Poverty haunts Latin America. A U.N. report released on Thursday indicates that some 45 million Latin Americans could be pushed into poverty in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to the region’s estimated 9.1 percent drop in GDP this year, a lack of adequate health care and access to potable water is expected to exacerbate the situation. To avoid this scenario, the U.N. has urged countries to implement an emergency basic income.
In a statement, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for the international community to support an urgent rescue and recovery package for Latin America and the Caribbean, including financial assistance and debt relief.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.
Augusta Saraiva contributed to this report.