foreignpolicy--2020-03-18--HIV-Positive Population Braces for Another Plague

As the world gritted its teeth and prepared for the worst from COVID-19 , a bit of good news flew under the radar earlier this month : A man from London appears to be the second person in the world to be cured of HIV .
Some four decades after the HIV pandemic first began spreading in North America , an experimental stem cell treatment armed a formerly HIV-positive patient with a gene that helps guard against the virus .
He has , tentatively , been cured .
The news was first announced a year ago but was officially reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on March 10 .
It is a risky treatment and has thus far been used only in extraordinary circumstances .
But the fact that there are now two cases where the virus has been eliminated , freeing patients from their daily drug cocktail—the first case was recorded in 2008—has provided hope that there may yet be an end to the AIDS crisis .
The announcement should have been cause for celebration , but amid another pandemic , hope has been muted—especially in light of worries among public health officials that immunocompromised people , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , could be particularly at risk for complications from COVID-19 .
Deborah Birx has spent decades on the front line of the fight against HIV .
Since 2014 , she has been the United States global AIDS coordinator , and , more recently , she was tapped by Vice President Mike Pence to run point on the White House ’ s COVID-19 response .
At a press briefing at the White House on Saturday , Birx ’ s dual responsibilities were obvious .
“ I just wanted to conclude with a group of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very worried about , ” she said .
“ These are individuals that we call long-term survivors from HIV .
They ’ re here , across the country , [ and ] have survived more than four decades with HIV .
Many of them still carry a level of immunocompromised .
To all of them out there , please take care of yourself .
Please ensure that you ’ re doing everything possible to ensure you don ’ t get exposed.
” So far , the degree of extra risk is largely unknown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Infections , which focuses heavily on HIV/AIDS and related infectious diseases , was scheduled to begin March 8 in Boston .
The event went ahead via teleconference but pivoted heavily toward focusing on the COVID-19 outbreak .
While researchers underscored that there continues to be no evidence that people with HIV are at a higher risk of COVID-19 , the virus is still ill-understood .
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending that HIV-positive people have on hand a 30-day supply of their medication , keep their vaccinations up to date @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do get sick Last week , CNN reported that HIV-positive people in China are facing shortages of their medication as harsh lockdown requirements are imposed by Beijing and many fear having their condition revealed ; the Wuhan LGBT Centre began working in shifts to deliver the necessary medicine to those who had run out .
At least one man was outed by the police as a result .
If there are risks to coinfection , the harm may be particularly acute through parts of Africa with particularly high HIV-positive populations .
While there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more common strains of influenza , is largely seasonal , outbreaks in Australia , Brazil , and other warmer countries suggest that weather and temperature have little bearing on the virus .
There have been reports of community transmission of COVID-19 in several African countries , including South Africa , Algeria , and Senegal .
“ We really have no idea how COVID-19 will behave in Africa , ” Glenda Gray , president of the South African Medical Research Council and an HIV researcher , told Science on Sunday .
The similarities between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread .
Researchers have found that COVID-19 contains a mutation similar to HIV ; both target the furin enzyme .
An upcoming paper in the journal Antiviral Research suggests that targeting furin makes COVID-19 particularly infectious .
While some have latched on to that information as a sign that COVID-19 was manmade , scientists say it is merely evidence that coronaviruses are evolving to become more efficient .
But COVID-19 and HIV may share more than just genetic traits—they may share treatment strategies as well .
A patient in South Korea , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China , was hospitalized with COVID-19 in early February .
A week after becoming infected , the patient developed a fever and cough .
On Day Eight , doctors administered lopinavir and ritonavir—marketed by the brand name Kaletra—a common part of the antiretroviral cocktail used to treat HIV .
The drug showed some promise in treating SARS as well .
A day later , according to a paper submitted to the Journal of Korean Medical Science , the viral load of COVID-19 began to decrease , and the patient recovered .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is far from conclusive .
“ It is possible that the decreased load of SARS-CoV-2 resulted from the natural course of the healing process rather than administration of lopinavir/ritonavir , or both , ” the paper stresses .
A case study published in The Lancet on a patient who had traveled to Wuhan and tested positive for COVID-19 showed that Kaletra reduced his fever but did not address his symptoms .
He died in the hospital .
Other preliminary studies have confirmed that the drug may hold promise , but clinical trials will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Australian researchers believe combining Kaletra with Chloroquine , an anti-malaria drug , holds promise to treat the virus .
AbbVie , which manufacturers Kaletra , has promised to provide the drug to health authorities who request it while also safeguarding the supply for HIV-positive patients who rely on it .
The threat of another pandemic is all too familiar to those who lived through the AIDS crisis—not just in terms of the virus ’ s deadly spread , but also with respect to the government ’ s reaction .
“ For many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vu all over again , ” said Gregg Gonsalves , assistant professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Medicine , on the Rachel Maddow Show last week .
“ It was death by public policy in the 1980s , where we had malign neglect by the Reagan administration that let tens of thousands of Americans die before the president even uttered the word ‘ AIDS.
’ ” Gonsalves drew a direct link between Reagan and President Donald Trump , who consistently tried to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19 .
“ All these years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ again , malevolence and incompetence , put together , to really put in peril many , many more people in the United States and everywhere , ” he said .

As the world gritted its teeth and prepared for the worst from COVID-19, a bit of good news flew under the radar earlier this month: A man from London appears to be the second person in the world to be cured of HIV.
As the world gritted its teeth and prepared for the worst from COVID-19, a bit of good news flew under the radar earlier this month: A man from London appears to be the second person in the world to be cured of HIV.
Some four decades after the HIV pandemic first began spreading in North America, an experimental stem cell treatment armed a formerly HIV-positive patient with a gene that helps guard against the virus. He has, tentatively, been cured. The news was first announced a year ago but was officially reported in the Lancet HIV with longer-term data on March 10.
It is a risky treatment and has thus far been used only in extraordinary circumstances. But the fact that there are now two cases where the virus has been eliminated, freeing patients from their daily drug cocktail—the first case was recorded in 2008—has provided hope that there may yet be an end to the AIDS crisis.
The announcement should have been cause for celebration, but amid another pandemic, hope has been muted—especially in light of worries among public health officials that immunocompromised people, including those living with HIV and AIDS, could be particularly at risk for complications from COVID-19.
Deborah Birx has spent decades on the front line of the fight against HIV. Since 2014, she has been the United States global AIDS coordinator, and, more recently, she was tapped by Vice President Mike Pence to run point on the White House’s COVID-19 response.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
At a press briefing at the White House on Saturday, Birx’s dual responsibilities were obvious.
“I just wanted to conclude with a group of clients and patients that we are all very worried about,” she said. “These are individuals that we call long-term survivors from HIV. They’re here, across the country, [and] have survived more than four decades with HIV. Many of them still carry a level of immunocompromised. To all of them out there, please take care of yourself. Please ensure that you’re doing everything possible to ensure you don’t get exposed.”
So far, the degree of extra risk is largely unknown.
The Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, which focuses heavily on HIV/AIDS and related infectious diseases, was scheduled to begin March 8 in Boston. The event went ahead via teleconference but pivoted heavily toward focusing on the COVID-19 outbreak. While researchers underscored that there continues to be no evidence that people with HIV are at a higher risk of COVID-19, the virus is still ill-understood. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending that HIV-positive people have on hand a 30-day supply of their medication, keep their vaccinations up to date, and be prepared in case they do get sick .
Last week, CNN reported that HIV-positive people in China are facing shortages of their medication as harsh lockdown requirements are imposed by Beijing and many fear having their condition revealed; the Wuhan LGBT Centre began working in shifts to deliver the necessary medicine to those who had run out. At least one man was outed by the police as a result.
If there are risks to coinfection, the harm may be particularly acute through parts of Africa with particularly high HIV-positive populations. While there was initially hope that COVID-19, like more common strains of influenza, is largely seasonal, outbreaks in Australia, Brazil, and other warmer countries suggest that weather and temperature have little bearing on the virus. There have been reports of community transmission of COVID-19 in several African countries, including South Africa, Algeria, and Senegal.
“We really have no idea how COVID-19 will behave in Africa,” Glenda Gray, president of the South African Medical Research Council and an HIV researcher, told Science on Sunday.
The similarities between the two viruses go beyond their rapid spread.
Researchers have found that COVID-19 contains a mutation similar to HIV; both target the furin enzyme. An upcoming paper in the journal Antiviral Research suggests that targeting furin makes COVID-19 particularly infectious.
While some have latched on to that information as a sign that COVID-19 was manmade, scientists say it is merely evidence that coronaviruses are evolving to become more efficient.
But COVID-19 and HIV may share more than just genetic traits—they may share treatment strategies as well. A patient in South Korea, who likely contracted the virus in Wuhan, China, was hospitalized with COVID-19 in early February. A week after becoming infected, the patient developed a fever and cough. On Day Eight, doctors administered lopinavir and ritonavir—marketed by the brand name Kaletra—a common part of the antiretroviral cocktail used to treat HIV. The drug showed some promise in treating SARS as well.
A day later, according to a paper submitted to the Journal of Korean Medical Science, the viral load of COVID-19 began to decrease, and the patient recovered.
It’s a promising sign, but it is far from conclusive. “It is possible that the decreased load of SARS-CoV-2 resulted from the natural course of the healing process rather than administration of lopinavir/ritonavir, or both,” the paper stresses. A case study published in The Lancet on a patient who had traveled to Wuhan and tested positive for COVID-19 showed that Kaletra reduced his fever but did not address his symptoms. He died in the hospital.
Other preliminary studies have confirmed that the drug may hold promise, but clinical trials will be needed to fully establish its utility. Australian researchers believe combining Kaletra with Chloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, holds promise to treat the virus.
AbbVie, which manufacturers Kaletra, has promised to provide the drug to health authorities who request it while also safeguarding the supply for HIV-positive patients who rely on it.
The threat of another pandemic is all too familiar to those who lived through the AIDS crisis—not just in terms of the virus’s deadly spread, but also with respect to the government’s reaction.
“For many of us, it’s deja vu all over again,” said Gregg Gonsalves, assistant professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Medicine, on the Rachel Maddow Show last week. “It was death by public policy in the 1980s, where we had malign neglect by the Reagan administration that let tens of thousands of Americans die before the president even uttered the word ‘AIDS.’”
Gonsalves drew a direct link between Reagan and President Donald Trump, who consistently tried to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19. “All these years later, we have another president, again, malevolence and incompetence, put together, to really put in peril many, many more people in the United States and everywhere,” he said.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-18--U.S. Citizens Abroad Frustrated by Lack of Help From Embassies Amid Pandemic

U.S. Citizens Abroad Frustrated by Lack of Help From Embassies Amid Pandemic American citizens abroad aren ’ t getting the support they need from U.S. embassies and consulates as they scramble to return home amid the global coronavirus outbreak , a group of Democratic lawmakers says , raising new questions about the State Department ’ s handling of the pandemic that has shaken worldwide trade and ground most international travel to a standstill .
Nine Democratic senators wrote a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday expressing “ urgent concern ” about Americans abroad who are trying to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic prompts countries to restrict international travel .
They wrote that Americans in countries including Honduras , Peru , Tunisia , and Morocco “ have reported to our offices that they are encountering difficulties in obtaining support from U.S. Embassies and Consulates , including to arrange commercial flights home.
” “ In some cases , they are reporting that they are unable to establish contact with , or receive even basic information from , U.S. Embassy personnel , ” according to the letter , written by Sens .
Bob Menendez , Ben Cardin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tim Kaine , Jeff Merkley , Christopher Coons , Cory Booker , and Tom Udall—all Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee .
Republican senators were not approached to sign the letter , according to several congressional staffers familiar with the matter .
The letter reflects the growing strain the pandemic has placed on the State Department , as well as mounting frustrations among Democrats in Congress over Pompeo ’ s handling of the crisis , including a lack of communication with the public and lawmakers overseeing his department .
Pompeo said in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ department was prioritizing the health and safety of American citizens and U.S. diplomats , though he declined to go into specific details .
“ I don ’ t want to spend too much time talking about the intricacies of what the State Department ’ s doing .
It is a rapidly evolving situation , ” he said .
“ State Department officials—and every American—should know we ’ re going to do everything we can to take care of our team.
” The lack of communication has drawn criticism both inside and outside the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have worked overtime in recent months to respond to the crisis , including organizing evacuation flights for American citizens out of China and from cruise ships abroad that were hit with the virus .
The State Department “ has no higher priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas .
We are aware the governments of several countries have announced suspension of air travel , ” a State Department spokeswoman said .
“ We are considering all options to assist U.S. citizens in these countries .
We are continuously assessing travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and will continue to update our travel advisories and safety information for U.S. travelers as situations evolve.
” The State Department recommends Americans abroad monitor the relevant U.S. embassy ’ s website for new information , enroll in the department ’ s traveler program to receive latest embassy updates , follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance as well as directives from local health authorities , check with airlines regarding disruptions in travel plans , and monitor the department ’ s website dedicated to coronavirus response .
While acknowledging the State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet the many demands related to COVID-19 , ” the lawmakers asked Pompeo for an “ immediate briefing ” on what the department was doing to “ ensure that every American can be safely returned home.
” They also said that public pronouncements from the department are sowing confusion among Americans trying to return home .
“ Recent statements by Department officials and press reports that it will not , as a matter of course , provide chartered flights home , have led to confusion among many Americans overseas , ” the lawmakers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel advisories do not seem to account for the spread of coronavirus , which is only adding to confusion among many Americans overseas.
” The State Department did not respond to a request for comment .
Last week , the State Department issued a global travel advisory urging Americans to reconsider traveling abroad as the coronavirus spread from China to over 160 countries worldwide .
The State Department also authorized its personnel and their family members deemed at higher risk from the virus to return home to limit the coronavirus ’ s impact @ @ @ @ @ @

American citizens abroad aren’t getting the support they need from U.S. embassies and consulates as they scramble to return home amid the global coronavirus outbreak, a group of Democratic lawmakers says, raising new questions about the State Department’s handling of the pandemic that has shaken worldwide trade and ground most international travel to a standstill.
American citizens abroad aren’t getting the support they need from U.S. embassies and consulates as they scramble to return home amid the global coronavirus outbreak, a group of Democratic lawmakers says, raising new questions about the State Department’s handling of the pandemic that has shaken worldwide trade and ground most international travel to a standstill.
Nine Democratic senators wrote a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday expressing “urgent concern” about Americans abroad who are trying to return to the United States as the pandemic prompts countries to restrict international travel. They wrote that Americans in countries including Honduras, Peru, Tunisia, and Morocco “have reported to our offices that they are encountering difficulties in obtaining support from U.S. Embassies and Consulates, including to arrange commercial flights home.”
“In some cases, they are reporting that they are unable to establish contact with, or receive even basic information from, U.S. Embassy personnel,” according to the letter, written by Sens. Bob Menendez, Ben Cardin, Chris Murphy, Edward Markey, Tim Kaine, Jeff Merkley, Christopher Coons, Cory Booker, and Tom Udall—all Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Republican senators were not approached to sign the letter, according to several congressional staffers familiar with the matter.
The letter reflects the growing strain the pandemic has placed on the State Department, as well as mounting frustrations among Democrats in Congress over Pompeo’s handling of the crisis, including a lack of communication with the public and lawmakers overseeing his department.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Pompeo said in a press conference on Tuesday that the department was prioritizing the health and safety of American citizens and U.S. diplomats, though he declined to go into specific details. “I don’t want to spend too much time talking about the intricacies of what the State Department’s doing. It is a rapidly evolving situation,” he said. “State Department officials—and every American—should know we’re going to do everything we can to take care of our team.”
The lack of communication has drawn criticism both inside and outside the State Department, even as department officials have worked overtime in recent months to respond to the crisis, including organizing evacuation flights for American citizens out of China and from cruise ships abroad that were hit with the virus.
The State Department “has no higher priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas. We are aware the governments of several countries have announced suspension of air travel,” a State Department spokeswoman said. “We are considering all options to assist U.S. citizens in these countries. We are continuously assessing travel conditions in all areas affected by COVID-19, and will continue to update our travel advisories and safety information for U.S. travelers as situations evolve.”
The State Department recommends Americans abroad monitor the relevant U.S. embassy’s website for new information, enroll in the department’s traveler program to receive latest embassy updates, follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance as well as directives from local health authorities, check with airlines regarding disruptions in travel plans, and monitor the department’s website dedicated to coronavirus response.
While acknowledging the State Department is “under immense strain to meet the many demands related to COVID-19,” the lawmakers asked Pompeo for an “immediate briefing” on what the department was doing to “ensure that every American can be safely returned home.”
They also said that public pronouncements from the department are sowing confusion among Americans trying to return home. “Recent statements by Department officials and press reports that it will not, as a matter of course, provide chartered flights home, have led to confusion among many Americans overseas,” the lawmakers wrote. “In addition, existing travel advisories do not seem to account for the spread of coronavirus, which is only adding to confusion among many Americans overseas.”
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
Last week, the State Department issued a global travel advisory urging Americans to reconsider traveling abroad as the coronavirus spread from China to over 160 countries worldwide. The State Department also authorized its personnel and their family members deemed at higher risk from the virus to return home to limit the coronavirus’s impact on the U.S. diplomatic corps.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-18--Fortress Russia Begins to Show Cracks as Coronavirus Spreads

MOSCOW—As the coronavirus pandemic has spread , bringing nations to a halt and killing over 8,000 people in recent weeks around the globe , Russia emerged as a rare spot of calm—or perhaps indifference .
Daily life largely continued as normal , with shops , workplaces , and schools still operating , while the authorities exuded confidence , pointing to only 147 confirmed cases and zero deaths , out of more than 116,000 tests for COVID-19 in the country of about 145 million people—one of the lowest ratios among infected nations in the world .
Russian President Vladimir Putin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Saudi Arabia , the global economy be damned .
However , in less than 48 hours , that image has begun to crumble as the Russian government has kicked its response to COVID-19 into overdrive : shutting down its borders , limiting air travel , closing schools , and launching a large economic stimulus as medical experts have begun to question Russia ’ s official coronavirus statistics and the true efficacy of the response to limit its spread .
Should the true scope of the virus prove to be higher than shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Russian government has missed its chance to slow the pandemic , leaving an already overstretched health care system and weakened economy to deal with the burden of a new national crisis .
“ Because the government now understands that infections could jump rapidly , we see new measures being employed to try and contain things very quickly , ” said Alexander Gabuev , a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center .
“ The key concern is that the medical system doesn ’ t have the capacity to deal with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Putin toured a new coronavirus information center in Moscow that is pulling together high-tech resources , including surveillance cameras and artificial intelligence , to monitor social media for disinformation about the spread of the disease , properly enforce quarantines , and identify empty supermarket shelves , which have recently been emptied in major cities as Russians have begun stockpiling goods .
After the visit , Putin said that he judged the situation in the country to be “ under control.
” “ We were able to contain the mass penetration and spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during a government meeting of ministers and top officials in Moscow .
“ The situation is generally under control despite high risk levels.
” In spite of such public assurances , Russia has stepped up its defenses recently .
Foreign nationals are now banned from entering until May 1 as part of an effort to slow the spread of the virus , and Moscow has barred all outdoor events and limited indoor gatherings to fewer than 50 people .
Older Russians have been told to remain inside .
Schools are now closed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced a $ 4 billion bailout package on Monday to help businesses that are at risk due to the drop-off in economic activity .
Russia has also shut its sizable land borders with its 14 neighbors , and the city of Moscow is currently constructing two large hospitals to house patients infected with the coronavirus .
The recent speed of the government response may in part be due to recognition that the virus is , in fact , spreading throughout the country .
While official figures remain low , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more severe , with many cases of the virus being misdiagnosed as other ailments .
A report published last week by RBC , a Russian business newspaper , found that Rosstat , the country ’ s official statistics agency , has recorded an increase of 37 percent of cases of “ community-acquired pneumonia ” in January as compared to January 2019 , which could fit similar symptoms to the coronavirus .
Such an increase would represent nearly 2,000 cases .
Other evidence that a much larger spread of the virus could be hiding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Doctor ’ s Alliance , a recently formed countrywide union for medical professionals , who said that the true figure of those infected with the new coronavirus could be in the thousands , but that many cases have likely been labelled as pneumonia .
In a recent video posted on the group ’ s YouTube channel , the organization also warned about a lack of protective gear in hospitals outside of major cities in Russia ’ s regions that could lead to more infections .
The video also featured anonymous calls from doctors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to clear entire hospital wards in order to accommodate a flood of patients suffering from “ pneumonia.
” A report by the Russian outlet Meduza also pointed to a similar development in St. Petersburg , which has recorded 10 confirmed cases of coronavirus , but where local hospitals have run out of space due to an influx of influenza and pneumonia patients .
The small official figures for coronavirus cases and the more muted government response in Russia compared to its peers around the world stem from a combination of economic , political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Coronavirus testing in Russia is currently a monopoly run by a lab in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk , more than 2,000 miles east of Moscow , where the testing procedure is overseen by Rospotrebnadzor , the state health watchdog .
This means that the lab faces a thickening bottleneck and growing backlog in terms of delivering results .
Moreover , tests in Russia are conducted via a locally developed version , which some medical experts have said may not be accurate enough to identify all cases of the virus .
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of trust in the medical system may be preventing some sick patients from coming forward for testing .
“ People won ’ t go see a doctor , because many are accustomed to home remedies , and there is a deep distrust in the health system , especially outside of Moscow , ” said Judy Twigg , an expert on public health in Russia at Virginia Commonwealth University .
The Russian government has also been somewhat resistant to sound the alarm about the virus due to the country ’ s struggling economy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a global downturn caused by the spread of the coronavirus and an ongoing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia .
Until just a few weeks ago , Putin was promising Russians that their stagnant incomes would finally pick up along with the economy this year , but recent developments have dashed those hopes , and limiting their impact appears to be a top priority for the Kremlin .
“ The government knows that people don ’ t have much savings and that businesses run on monthly cash flow , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ The concern is how to do a proper quarantine and not cause a massive economic disruption in the process.
” In terms of managing the virus , the Russian government responded quickly at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020 by shutting down its 2,600-mile border with China and limiting flights between the two countries .
Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin , who was recently appointed by Putin to head a coronavirus task force , also enacted a series of controversial policies targeting the Chinese community , such as raids on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city bus drivers to report when Chinese-looking passengers got on board .
The measures earned a rare rebuke from the Chinese Embassy in Moscow , which complained directly to the Kremlin .
According to official numbers , the tough border measures appear to have worked , with the majority of confirmed cases in Russia coming from citizens who were abroad in Europe , particularly in Italy .
Since then , the Russian capital has remained on “ high-alert , ” with strict policies implemented , but Moscow has so far refrained from calling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been done across Europe .
The city has said that anyone ignoring quarantine requirements could face up to five years in prison , and the authorities have used Moscow ’ s widespread facial-recognition network to monitor people under quarantine , even issuing fines when some have gone outside to drop off the trash .
But while Russia has taken tough new measures this week to slow the spread of the virus , restaurants , bars , and shopping malls currently remain open .
Similarly , while many businesses have already told employees to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an official decree on Wednesday for Moscow employees to work from home .
“ The longer you keep things open and hold back on the social distancing side of things for fear of the economic situation , the more you are delaying an inevitable spike in the spread of the virus , ” Twigg said .
Meanwhile , Russia ’ s political life continues to move forward even while the pandemic is hitting closer to home .
Despite concerns about large crowds of people gathering , Putin confirmed on Tuesday a planned nationwide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would allow him to run for two more terms as president .
Similarly , the Kremlin said that it would continue with rehearsals for its Victory Day parade in May , which will mark the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union ’ s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II and could involve up to 10,000 soldiers training together .

MOSCOW—As the coronavirus pandemic has spread, bringing nations to a halt and killing over 8,000 people in recent weeks around the globe, Russia emerged as a rare spot of calm—or perhaps indifference.
MOSCOW—As the coronavirus pandemic has spread, bringing nations to a halt and killing over 8,000 people in recent weeks around the globe, Russia emerged as a rare spot of calm—or perhaps indifference.
Daily life largely continued as normal, with shops, workplaces, and schools still operating, while the authorities exuded confidence, pointing to only 147 confirmed cases and zero deaths, out of more than 116,000 tests for COVID-19 in the country of about 145 million people—one of the lowest ratios among infected nations in the world. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, started an oil price war with Saudi Arabia, the global economy be damned.
However, in less than 48 hours, that image has begun to crumble as the Russian government has kicked its response to COVID-19 into overdrive: shutting down its borders, limiting air travel, closing schools, and launching a large economic stimulus as medical experts have begun to question Russia’s official coronavirus statistics and the true efficacy of the response to limit its spread.
Should the true scope of the virus prove to be higher than shown in official statistics, it would mean that the Russian government has missed its chance to slow the pandemic, leaving an already overstretched health care system and weakened economy to deal with the burden of a new national crisis.
“Because the government now understands that infections could jump rapidly, we see new measures being employed to try and contain things very quickly,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “The key concern is that the medical system doesn’t have the capacity to deal with the coming uptick in cases.”
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
On Tuesday, Putin toured a new coronavirus information center in Moscow that is pulling together high-tech resources, including surveillance cameras and artificial intelligence, to monitor social media for disinformation about the spread of the disease, properly enforce quarantines, and identify empty supermarket shelves, which have recently been emptied in major cities as Russians have begun stockpiling goods. After the visit, Putin said that he judged the situation in the country to be “under control.”
“We were able to contain the mass penetration and spread” of the pandemic, Putin said during a government meeting of ministers and top officials in Moscow. “The situation is generally under control despite high risk levels.”
In spite of such public assurances, Russia has stepped up its defenses recently. Foreign nationals are now banned from entering until May 1 as part of an effort to slow the spread of the virus, and Moscow has barred all outdoor events and limited indoor gatherings to fewer than 50 people. Older Russians have been told to remain inside. Schools are now closed, as are major tourist attractions, while Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced a $4 billion bailout package on Monday to help businesses that are at risk due to the drop-off in economic activity. Russia has also shut its sizable land borders with its 14 neighbors, and the city of Moscow is currently constructing two large hospitals to house patients infected with the coronavirus.
The recent speed of the government response may in part be due to recognition that the virus is, in fact, spreading throughout the country. While official figures remain low, evidence is emerging that that reality is more severe, with many cases of the virus being misdiagnosed as other ailments. A report published last week by RBC, a Russian business newspaper, found that Rosstat, the country’s official statistics agency, has recorded an increase of 37 percent of cases of “community-acquired pneumonia” in January as compared to January 2019, which could fit similar symptoms to the coronavirus. Such an increase would represent nearly 2,000 cases.
Other evidence that a much larger spread of the virus could be hiding in Russia was put forward by the Doctor’s Alliance, a recently formed countrywide union for medical professionals, who said that the true figure of those infected with the new coronavirus could be in the thousands, but that many cases have likely been labelled as pneumonia. In a recent video posted on the group’s YouTube channel, the organization also warned about a lack of protective gear in hospitals outside of major cities in Russia’s regions that could lead to more infections. The video also featured anonymous calls from doctors who said that they were being told to clear entire hospital wards in order to accommodate a flood of patients suffering from “pneumonia.”
A report by the Russian outlet Meduza also pointed to a similar development in St. Petersburg, which has recorded 10 confirmed cases of coronavirus, but where local hospitals have run out of space due to an influx of influenza and pneumonia patients.
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The small official figures for coronavirus cases and the more muted government response in Russia compared to its peers around the world stem from a combination of economic, political, and practical realities inside the country.
Coronavirus testing in Russia is currently a monopoly run by a lab in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, more than 2,000 miles east of Moscow, where the testing procedure is overseen by Rospotrebnadzor, the state health watchdog. This means that the lab faces a thickening bottleneck and growing backlog in terms of delivering results. Moreover, tests in Russia are conducted via a locally developed version, which some medical experts have said may not be accurate enough to identify all cases of the virus. On top of that, a longstanding lack of trust in the medical system may be preventing some sick patients from coming forward for testing.
“People won’t go see a doctor, because many are accustomed to home remedies, and there is a deep distrust in the health system, especially outside of Moscow,” said Judy Twigg, an expert on public health in Russia at Virginia Commonwealth University.
The Russian government has also been somewhat resistant to sound the alarm about the virus due to the country’s struggling economy, which has been hit by twin shocks of a global downturn caused by the spread of the coronavirus and an ongoing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Until just a few weeks ago, Putin was promising Russians that their stagnant incomes would finally pick up along with the economy this year, but recent developments have dashed those hopes, and limiting their impact appears to be a top priority for the Kremlin.
“The government knows that people don’t have much savings and that businesses run on monthly cash flow,” said Gabuev from the Carnegie Moscow Center. “The concern is how to do a proper quarantine and not cause a massive economic disruption in the process.”
In terms of managing the virus, the Russian government responded quickly at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020 by shutting down its 2,600-mile border with China and limiting flights between the two countries. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, who was recently appointed by Putin to head a coronavirus task force, also enacted a series of controversial policies targeting the Chinese community, such as raids on work sites with Chinese laborers and asking city bus drivers to report when Chinese-looking passengers got on board. The measures earned a rare rebuke from the Chinese Embassy in Moscow, which complained directly to the Kremlin. According to official numbers, the tough border measures appear to have worked, with the majority of confirmed cases in Russia coming from citizens who were abroad in Europe, particularly in Italy.
Since then, the Russian capital has remained on “high-alert,” with strict policies implemented, but Moscow has so far refrained from calling for a national emergency, as has been done across Europe. The city has said that anyone ignoring quarantine requirements could face up to five years in prison, and the authorities have used Moscow’s widespread facial-recognition network to monitor people under quarantine, even issuing fines when some have gone outside to drop off the trash.
But while Russia has taken tough new measures this week to slow the spread of the virus, restaurants, bars, and shopping malls currently remain open. Similarly, while many businesses have already told employees to work from home, Sobyanin only issued an official decree on Wednesday for Moscow employees to work from home.
“The longer you keep things open and hold back on the social distancing side of things for fear of the economic situation, the more you are delaying an inevitable spike in the spread of the virus,” Twigg said.
Meanwhile, Russia’s political life continues to move forward even while the pandemic is hitting closer to home. Despite concerns about large crowds of people gathering, Putin confirmed on Tuesday a planned nationwide vote on April 22 on constitutional amendments that would allow him to run for two more terms as president.
Similarly, the Kremlin said that it would continue with rehearsals for its Victory Day parade in May, which will mark the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II and could involve up to 10,000 soldiers training together.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-18--The Libyan Civil War Is About to Get Worse

The Libyan Civil War Is About to Get Worse Libya has been in the grips of an internationalized civil conflict for more than half a decade , involving the same foreign countries throughout the ordeal .
But recently , persistent U.S. apathy toward the region and a growing sense of impunity have emboldened some of those actors .
The most assertive one is the United Arab Emirates , followed closely behind by its regional opponent , Turkey .
Both are U.S. allies but stand on opposite sides of the conflict .
Last year , they began engaging in more direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their usual proxies .
Yet another clash between the two main Libya camps is now brewing , and events in recent weeks suggest that the fighting will be more devastating than at any time before—and still may not produce a definitive victory for either side .
The current bout of civil war began a year ago when eastern-based Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar attacked the capital , Tripoli , one of the last remaining strongholds of the internationally recognized Government of National Accord ( GNA ) .
Haftar ’ s self-styled Libyan National Army @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been able to achieve its objective of capturing the prized urban area of 1.2 million people and overthrowing the GNA .
Facing stiff resistance from disparate militias nominally aligned with the government , the LNA has failed to breach downtown Tripoli .
On top of this , the marshal ’ s campaign , while destructive , has been hampered by gross strategic and tactical inefficiency .
The resulting war of attrition and slower pace of combat revealed yet another flaw in his coalition : Few eastern Libyan fighters wish to risk their lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another clash between the two main Libya camps is now brewing , and events in recent weeks suggest that the fighting will be more devastating than at any time before .
Eager to offset the LNA ’ s weaknesses on the ground , the UAE carried out more than 900 air strikes in the greater Tripoli area last year using Chinese combat drones and , occasionally , French-made fighter jets .
The Emirati military intervention helped contain the GNA ’ s forces but did not push Haftar ’ s objectives forward .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provoking other regional powers .
Turkey responded to the UAE by deploying Bayraktar TB2 drones and several dozen Turkish officers to carry out roughly 250 strikes in an effort to help the GNA resist Haftar ’ s onslaught .
The stalemate also inspired Russia to increase its own involvement in Libya .
In September 2019 , a few hundred Russian mercenaries joined the front-line effort near Tripoli in support of Haftar ’ s forces .
Their lethal toughness , sophisticated equipment , and coordination enabled the LNA to slowly grab parts of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same time , various technical factors brought Turkey ’ s clandestine assistance to a halt .
The interruption forced a desperate GNA to sign a controversial maritime accord that granted Ankara notional gas-drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean in return for Turkey launching a full-blown military intervention in support of the anti-Haftar camp .
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ’ s audacious push caused the Emiratis to lose the initiative in Libya , which Abu Dhabi blamed on an insufficient amount of firepower and mercenaries mobilized in 2019 .
Now , it seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Erdogan ’ s resolve .
According to open-source data analyzed by aircraft-tracking specialist Gerjon , the Emiratis , since mid-January , have flown more than 100 cargo planes to Libya ( or western Egypt , near the Libyan border ) .
These planes likely carried with them thousands of tons of military hardware .
Other clues suggest that the number of Emirati personnel on Libyan soil has also increased .
All of this indicates that Haftar ’ s coalition and its allies are going to try , once again , to achieve total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ realm , since the ineffectual Berlin summit took place in January , no authentic effort at dialogue has been made toward a political compromise .
Few international actors are willing to contradict the UAE , and while the GNA ’ s isolation grows , no Western government wants to exert any meaningful pressure on Haftar .
For that reason , his new offensive will probably meet even less resistance from the international community—but it will face a tough adversary in Turkey.The United Arab Emirates seems determined to stage a comeback by crushing Erdogan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February , at least three cargo ships from Turkey delivered about 3,500 tons ’ worth of equipment and ammunition each .
The Turkish presence on Libyan soil currently comprises several hundred men .
They train Libyan fighters on urban warfare with an emphasis on tactics to fend off armored vehicles .
Against attacks from the sky , Ankara relies on electronic-warfare technology and a combination of U.S.– and indigenously developed air defense systems .
Similar protection has been set up at the air base of Misrata , a powerful anti-Haftar city to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took on Jan. 6 .
Additionally , since late December , more than 4,000 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries have arrived in Tripoli and its surrounding area .
Most of them are battle-hardened Islamist fighters who belong to three large anti-government militias .
Turkey is also busy upgrading its fleet of combat drones scattered across northwest Libya .
To counter Turkey ’ s new intervention , the pro-Haftar government in eastern Libya formalized its alignment with the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad , allowing the LNA to purchase technical advice from Damascus using material and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contractors hired from pro-Assad militias are now reportedly in Libya , on Haftar ’ s side .
And Egypt has been under pressure to provide even greater help to the LNA .
Encouraged by this , the LNA is now implementing a new , multilayered offensive whose overriding logic consists in strangling and devaluing Tripoli until Erdogan gives up and leaves Libya .
Because Turkey ’ s presence and its arsenal have made it difficult for the UAE to fly its combat drones anymore , the LNA and its allies have begun a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other projectiles .
Such salvos on Tripoli don ’ t just hit legitimate military targets—they also hit civilians .
Unguided rockets are inherently indiscriminate , and the pro-GNA camp can do almost nothing to prevent this kind of attack .
This is part of a philosophy of collective punishment , and , in keeping with that line of thinking , the pro-Haftar camp has been imposing a $ 1.5 billion-a-month oil blockade on Libya since mid-January .
Fuel shortages may soon become more widespread as a result .
Suppression of the nation ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means of cutting off the internationally recognized Central Bank in Tripoli and potentially supplanting it with an LNA-friendly alternative where all oil-export proceeds would be captured going forward .
Lastly , in the way of ground operations , the LNA has become active again in its attempts to seize new territories on the peripheries of Tripoli .
These intensive assaults will continue and grow in the coming days and weeks , thanks to resources recently provided by the UAE.The dynamic between Ankara and Moscow is as much rooted in their common disdain for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In contrast to that of Abu Dhabi , Moscow ’ s intervention in Libya is far more mercurial .
In the last three months of 2019 , Kremlin-linked paramilitary company Wagner shifted the balance of the conflict by joining the fight alongside Haftar .
Then , in early January , several days before President Vladimir Putin took part in a request for a Libyan ceasefire , the Russian contingent on the Tripoli front line suddenly became less active .
Later , going along with the much larger UAE-driven buildup , the frequency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign that additional equipment has been brought in and the number of contractors , advisers , and regulars on Libyan soil has gone up from about 2,000 late last year .
The Russian forces near Tripoli are no longer complying with the truce , but , for the time being , they are merely a supporting actor .
Putin has not yet made the strategic decision to engage head-on in a long urban war and ensure that Haftar emerges as the ultimate victor , despite having the capacity to do so .
Russia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course and use the cynical partnership it has so far preserved with Turkey .
The dynamic between Ankara and Moscow is as much rooted in their common disdain for Europe as it is in mutual animosity .
That means Russia could tolerate Turkey a while longer if it feels its interests would be better served by doing so .
Such an ebb-and-flow approach amplifies Moscow ’ s influence and could eventually push the Europeans out of the Libyan theater altogether .
Russia may just as easily change its mind and invest into helping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Erdogan .
Despite fissures that are certain to widen within the GNA coalition , the entrenchment and sheer size of the Turkish mission in Libya makes it hard to uproot .
Notwithstanding its attempt to tap underwater hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean , Ankara has no intention of renouncing its commercial interests in Libya or its wider geopolitical aspirations in the rest of Africa .
On the other hand , the UAE has sought to bring about the emergence in Tripoli of a government that is void of any influence from political Islam writ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dhabi will not accept a negotiated settlement with Erdogan ’ s Islamist government .
Making matters worse , neither the United States nor any EU country is willing to use its own regional clout to stand in the Emiratis ’ way .
Therefore , regardless of whether that endangers a great number of civilian lives , the Libyan war is likely to continue escalating before any political resolution is seriously explored .

Libya has been in the grips of an internationalized civil conflict for more than half a decade, involving the same foreign countries throughout the ordeal. But recently, persistent U.S. apathy toward the region and a growing sense of impunity have emboldened some of those actors.
Libya has been in the grips of an internationalized civil conflict for more than half a decade, involving the same foreign countries throughout the ordeal. But recently, persistent U.S. apathy toward the region and a growing sense of impunity have emboldened some of those actors.
The most assertive one is the United Arab Emirates, followed closely behind by its regional opponent, Turkey. Both are U.S. allies but stand on opposite sides of the conflict. Last year, they began engaging in more direct military intervention, in addition to supporting their usual proxies. Yet another clash between the two main Libya camps is now brewing, and events in recent weeks suggest that the fighting will be more devastating than at any time before—and still may not produce a definitive victory for either side.
The current bout of civil war began a year ago when eastern-based Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar attacked the capital, Tripoli, one of the last remaining strongholds of the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) has so far not been able to achieve its objective of capturing the prized urban area of 1.2 million people and overthrowing the GNA.
Facing stiff resistance from disparate militias nominally aligned with the government, the LNA has failed to breach downtown Tripoli. On top of this, the marshal’s campaign, while destructive, has been hampered by gross strategic and tactical inefficiency. The resulting war of attrition and slower pace of combat revealed yet another flaw in his coalition: Few eastern Libyan fighters wish to risk their lives for Haftar 600 miles away from home.Yet another clash between the two main Libya camps is now brewing, and events in recent weeks suggest that the fighting will be more devastating than at any time before.
Eager to offset the LNA’s weaknesses on the ground, the UAE carried out more than 900 air strikes in the greater Tripoli area last year using Chinese combat drones and, occasionally, French-made fighter jets. The Emirati military intervention helped contain the GNA’s forces but did not push Haftar’s objectives forward. Instead, it had an adverse effect by provoking other regional powers. Turkey responded to the UAE by deploying Bayraktar TB2 drones and several dozen Turkish officers to carry out roughly 250 strikes in an effort to help the GNA resist Haftar’s onslaught. The stalemate also inspired Russia to increase its own involvement in Libya.
In September 2019, a few hundred Russian mercenaries joined the front-line effort near Tripoli in support of Haftar’s forces. Their lethal toughness, sophisticated equipment, and coordination enabled the LNA to slowly grab parts of the city’s outskirts. Around the same time, various technical factors brought Turkey’s clandestine assistance to a halt.
The interruption forced a desperate GNA to sign a controversial maritime accord that granted Ankara notional gas-drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean in return for Turkey launching a full-blown military intervention in support of the anti-Haftar camp.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s audacious push caused the Emiratis to lose the initiative in Libya, which Abu Dhabi blamed on an insufficient amount of firepower and mercenaries mobilized in 2019. Now, it seems determined to stage a comeback by crushing Erdogan’s resolve.
According to open-source data analyzed by aircraft-tracking specialist Gerjon, the Emiratis, since mid-January, have flown more than 100 cargo planes to Libya (or western Egypt, near the Libyan border). These planes likely carried with them thousands of tons of military hardware. Other clues suggest that the number of Emirati personnel on Libyan soil has also increased. All of this indicates that Haftar’s coalition and its allies are going to try, once again, to achieve total victory by force.
In the diplomatic realm, since the ineffectual Berlin summit took place in January, no authentic effort at dialogue has been made toward a political compromise. Few international actors are willing to contradict the UAE, and while the GNA’s isolation grows, no Western government wants to exert any meaningful pressure on Haftar. For that reason, his new offensive will probably meet even less resistance from the international community—but it will face a tough adversary in Turkey.The United Arab Emirates seems determined to stage a comeback by crushing Erdogan’s resolve.
During January and February, at least three cargo ships from Turkey delivered about 3,500 tons’ worth of equipment and ammunition each. The Turkish presence on Libyan soil currently comprises several hundred men. They train Libyan fighters on urban warfare with an emphasis on tactics to fend off armored vehicles. Against attacks from the sky, Ankara relies on electronic-warfare technology and a combination of U.S.– and indigenously developed air defense systems. Similar protection has been set up at the air base of Misrata, a powerful anti-Haftar city to the west of Sirte, which the LNA took on Jan. 6.
Additionally, since late December, more than 4,000 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries have arrived in Tripoli and its surrounding area. Most of them are battle-hardened Islamist fighters who belong to three large anti-government militias. Turkey is also busy upgrading its fleet of combat drones scattered across northwest Libya.
To counter Turkey’s new intervention, the pro-Haftar government in eastern Libya formalized its alignment with the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, allowing the LNA to purchase technical advice from Damascus using material and diplomatic rewards. A few hundred Syrian contractors hired from pro-Assad militias are now reportedly in Libya, on Haftar’s side. And Egypt has been under pressure to provide even greater help to the LNA.
Encouraged by this, the LNA is now implementing a new, multilayered offensive whose overriding logic consists in strangling and devaluing Tripoli until Erdogan gives up and leaves Libya. Because Turkey’s presence and its arsenal have made it difficult for the UAE to fly its combat drones anymore, the LNA and its allies have begun a relentless shelling campaign using Grad rockets and other projectiles. Such salvos on Tripoli don’t just hit legitimate military targets—they also hit civilians. Unguided rockets are inherently indiscriminate, and the pro-GNA camp can do almost nothing to prevent this kind of attack.
This is part of a philosophy of collective punishment, and, in keeping with that line of thinking, the pro-Haftar camp has been imposing a $1.5 billion-a-month oil blockade on Libya since mid-January. Fuel shortages may soon become more widespread as a result. Suppression of the nation’s only dollar-generating activity is also a means of cutting off the internationally recognized Central Bank in Tripoli and potentially supplanting it with an LNA-friendly alternative where all oil-export proceeds would be captured going forward.
Lastly, in the way of ground operations, the LNA has become active again in its attempts to seize new territories on the peripheries of Tripoli. These intensive assaults will continue and grow in the coming days and weeks, thanks to resources recently provided by the UAE.The dynamic between Ankara and Moscow is as much rooted in their common disdain for Europe as it is in mutual animosity.
In contrast to that of Abu Dhabi, Moscow’s intervention in Libya is far more mercurial. In the last three months of 2019, Kremlin-linked paramilitary company Wagner shifted the balance of the conflict by joining the fight alongside Haftar. Then, in early January, several days before President Vladimir Putin took part in a request for a Libyan ceasefire, the Russian contingent on the Tripoli front line suddenly became less active.
Later, going along with the much larger UAE-driven buildup, the frequency of Russian flights picked up, a sign that additional equipment has been brought in and the number of contractors, advisers, and regulars on Libyan soil has gone up from about 2,000 late last year. The Russian forces near Tripoli are no longer complying with the truce, but, for the time being, they are merely a supporting actor. Putin has not yet made the strategic decision to engage head-on in a long urban war and ensure that Haftar emerges as the ultimate victor, despite having the capacity to do so.
Russia may well choose to stay its current course and use the cynical partnership it has so far preserved with Turkey. The dynamic between Ankara and Moscow is as much rooted in their common disdain for Europe as it is in mutual animosity. That means Russia could tolerate Turkey a while longer if it feels its interests would be better served by doing so. Such an ebb-and-flow approach amplifies Moscow’s influence and could eventually push the Europeans out of the Libyan theater altogether. Russia may just as easily change its mind and invest into helping the LNA deliver a resounding defeat to Erdogan.
Despite fissures that are certain to widen within the GNA coalition, the entrenchment and sheer size of the Turkish mission in Libya makes it hard to uproot. Notwithstanding its attempt to tap underwater hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean, Ankara has no intention of renouncing its commercial interests in Libya or its wider geopolitical aspirations in the rest of Africa.
On the other hand, the UAE has sought to bring about the emergence in Tripoli of a government that is void of any influence from political Islam writ large. Because of this, Abu Dhabi will not accept a negotiated settlement with Erdogan’s Islamist government. Making matters worse, neither the United States nor any EU country is willing to use its own regional clout to stand in the Emiratis’ way. Therefore, regardless of whether that endangers a great number of civilian lives, the Libyan war is likely to continue escalating before any political resolution is seriously explored.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-18--The Coronavirus Has Put the U.S.-China Relationship on Life Support

The Coronavirus Has Put the U.S.-China Relationship on Life Support Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s weekly China Brief .
The highlights this week : China expels American journalists , Beijing and Washington swap harsh words on the coronavirus , and grim economic data emerges .
China dropped a bombshell on the Western press yesterday as it announced the effective expulsion of all U.S. staff of the New York Times , the Wall Street Journal , and the Washington Post .
It also demanded that both Time and the Voice of America , along with those three organizations , register @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agents .
Thirteen journalists have been expelled as a result ; more are likely to follow as China squeezes the bureaus , quite likely including non-Americans .
The move came in part in retaliation for Washington ’ s recent limits on Chinese state media operatives in the United States .
The effective expulsion of three of the most important American outlets would be worrying enough .
But there also appears to be a wave of anti-foreigner feeling building throughout the system .
Americans and other Westerners in China are reporting police questioning of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other foreigners , and increased police checks .
Anti-Asian racism , meanwhile , is on the rise in the United States at the street level—including targeting Asians for wearing masks—amid the new coronavirus outbreak .
Chinese ambassadors , meanwhile , continue to spread the lie that the virus didn ’ t originate in China , while state-linked media doubles down on conspiracy theories promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about an imaginary U.S. military role .
In response , American conservatives , including the Trump administration , continue to refer to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” while U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an angry call to State Counsellor Yang Jiechi and summoned the Chinese ambassador for a dressing-down .
Hong Kong borders .
The announcement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Western journalists explicitly included Hong Kong .
That ’ s a serious wound to the idea , enshrined in the agreements for handover , that Hong Kong ’ s border control is separate from Beijing ’ s , and it raises several legal and governmental questions .
Meanwhile , Reuters confirms that People ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Hong Kong , as Hilton Yip warned in FP last year .
Fear factor .
The warning signs are flashing bright red for foreigners in China , who should , at a minimum , have an exit strategy—and would be wise to use it soon , especially with flights likely to be grounded globally for months .
At a minimum , they should expect their next visa to be extremely hard to obtain—and keep paperwork , especially local police registrations , in impeccable order .
Cold War 2.0 ?
There ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ watcher community over whether the brewing U.S.-China competition can be called a cold war .
But neither the United States nor the Soviet Union ever accused the other side of causing a pandemic , either deliberately or through neglect .
Relations are at their worst point in modern memory and likely only to get worse .
Unless de-escalation comes soon , this could be very ugly .
Quarantine zones .
Measures to protect China are still in place , with flights into Beijing now virtually impossible .
China hasn ’ t shut its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a two-week quarantine period in a small list of approved hotels—self-funded .
( Amid a crisis for the hospitality industry , it must have taken hotel owners serious pull to get on that list . )
Caixin has a long report on the process .
Chinese citizens who come back in without reporting their symptoms , meanwhile , are facing up to three years in prison .
Back to school .
Chinese schools in some of the least-hit provinces , such as Qinghai and Guizhou , are returning to physical classes in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sessions ” —key political meetings of the year—may be held in May .
Throughout much of China , excluding Hubei , public spaces are reopening , though still under strict monitoring regimes , including temperature checks and the use of apps to trace infected people .
Hospitals are being dismantled .
The next few weeks will see if these measures work—a hopeful sign for everyone in the next two months—or if a new wave of infection hits .
( Early and unreliable data suggests that R0 , the measure of the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creeping back above 1—meaning the virus is spreading—in China outside of Hubei . )
The world should be watching , and also praying that China reports the numbers accurately .
Firewall isolation .
One thing that ’ s become very visible in the last few weeks : The Great Firewall cuts off the rest of the world from Chinese stories .
If the Western internet had been flooded with firsthand accounts of the suffering in Wuhan and the struggles of living under quarantine , maybe the problem would have been taken a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ experiences also barely seem to have filtered through to their counterparts in the West , potentially costing lives .
And censorship is only tightening .
( I had a great piece on this lined up from a Chinese writer until they became too scared of retaliation to publish it . )
The trade deal is dead .
Not only dead , but forgotten—neither side will be able to fulfill even a fraction of its commitments , even as the new norms are worked out for cargo and ports during the pandemic period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade war or a willingness to work from a blank slate after the dust settles is uncertain—but I ’ d bet on the former , with added viciousness .
Dire numbers .
As the West stares into the abyss of depression , the Chinese numbers for the lockdown period aren ’ t encouraging .
The first quarter is likely to see a 9 percent contraction in economic activity , says Goldman Sachs .
Industrial output is down 13.5 percent , and retail has plummeted by 20 percent .
Unemployment numbers—never reliable—have risen to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
At the same time , China is bringing its state resources to bear , cushioning the immediate impact but also pushing economic reform a long way off .
Student numbers plummet .
Chinese international students , facing a fresh virus crisis and a wave of racism , are flocking home .
Unless something significantly changes , the number of new international students on campuses this fall will be close to zero .
That ’ s going to be a devastating financial blow for Western universities that have become deeply dependent on Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also going to look like a less attractive proposition in a more xenophobic China .
Relief measures .
The United States is mulling massive emergency relief measures , including simply sending out checks to all citizens .
In China , the high level of state control has pushed the burden largely onto businesses , which have been made to keep paying employees throughout the lockdown process .
They ’ re now desperate for state aid to stay afloat—while workers outside the formal employment process , including migrants , have been particularly battered .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears to be being channeled through neighborhood committees and local governments , but income inequality is likely to sharply rise as a result .
Locked down in Beijing , I watched China beat back the coronavirus , by Gerry Shih Her Grandmother Got the Coronavirus .
Then So Did the Whole Family.
, by Amy Qin We usually draw attention to more obscure journals or books in this space .
But this time round , let ’ s pay tribute to some of the work by the correspondents who have just had their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense of what the Chinese people are losing by their absence .
Here are just three of them on the pandemic .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: China expels American journalists , Beijing and Washington swap harsh words on the coronavirus , and grim economic data emerges .
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: China expels American journalists, Beijing and Washington swap harsh words on the coronavirus, and grim economic data emerges.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
The U.S.-China Relationship Is on Life Support
China dropped a bombshell on the Western press yesterday as it announced the effective expulsion of all U.S. staff of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post. It also demanded that both Time and the Voice of America, along with those three organizations, register all their employees in China as foreign agents. Thirteen journalists have been expelled as a result; more are likely to follow as China squeezes the bureaus, quite likely including non-Americans. The move came in part in retaliation for Washington’s recent limits on Chinese state media operatives in the United States.
The effective expulsion of three of the most important American outlets would be worrying enough. But there also appears to be a wave of anti-foreigner feeling building throughout the system. Americans and other Westerners in China are reporting police questioning of their bosses, restrictions on visits by other foreigners, and increased police checks. Anti-Asian racism, meanwhile, is on the rise in the United States at the street level—including targeting Asians for wearing masks—amid the new coronavirus outbreak.
Chinese ambassadors, meanwhile, continue to spread the lie that the virus didn’t originate in China, while state-linked media doubles down on conspiracy theories promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about an imaginary U.S. military role. In response, American conservatives, including the Trump administration, continue to refer to the coronavirus as “the Chinese virus,” while U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an angry call to State Counsellor Yang Jiechi and summoned the Chinese ambassador for a dressing-down.
Hong Kong borders. The announcement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Western journalists explicitly included Hong Kong. That’s a serious wound to the idea, enshrined in the agreements for handover, that Hong Kong’s border control is separate from Beijing’s, and it raises several legal and governmental questions. Meanwhile, Reuters confirms that People’s Armed Police paramilitary observers are present in Hong Kong, as Hilton Yip warned in FP last year.
Fear factor. The warning signs are flashing bright red for foreigners in China, who should, at a minimum, have an exit strategy—and would be wise to use it soon, especially with flights likely to be grounded globally for months. At a minimum, they should expect their next visa to be extremely hard to obtain—and keep paperwork, especially local police registrations, in impeccable order.
Cold War 2.0? There’s been a long-standing debate in the China watcher community over whether the brewing U.S.-China competition can be called a cold war. But neither the United States nor the Soviet Union ever accused the other side of causing a pandemic, either deliberately or through neglect. Relations are at their worst point in modern memory and likely only to get worse. Unless de-escalation comes soon, this could be very ugly.
What We’re Following
Quarantine zones. Measures to protect China are still in place, with flights into Beijing now virtually impossible. China hasn’t shut its borders, but new arrivals now require a two-week quarantine period in a small list of approved hotels—self-funded. (Amid a crisis for the hospitality industry, it must have taken hotel owners serious pull to get on that list.) Caixin has a long report on the process. Chinese citizens who come back in without reporting their symptoms, meanwhile, are facing up to three years in prison.
Back to school. Chinese schools in some of the least-hit provinces, such as Qinghai and Guizhou, are returning to physical classes in the next few days. The “Two Sessions”—key political meetings of the year—may be held in May. Throughout much of China, excluding Hubei, public spaces are reopening, though still under strict monitoring regimes, including temperature checks and the use of apps to trace infected people. Hospitals are being dismantled. The next few weeks will see if these measures work—a hopeful sign for everyone in the next two months—or if a new wave of infection hits. (Early and unreliable data suggests that R0, the measure of the number of people each carrier infects, may be creeping back above 1—meaning the virus is spreading—in China outside of Hubei.) The world should be watching, and also praying that China reports the numbers accurately.
Firewall isolation. One thing that’s become very visible in the last few weeks: The Great Firewall cuts off the rest of the world from Chinese stories. If the Western internet had been flooded with firsthand accounts of the suffering in Wuhan and the struggles of living under quarantine, maybe the problem would have been taken a little more seriously. Front-line health care workers’ experiences also barely seem to have filtered through to their counterparts in the West, potentially costing lives. And censorship is only tightening. (I had a great piece on this lined up from a Chinese writer until they became too scared of retaliation to publish it.)
Tech and Business
The trade deal is dead. Not only dead, but forgotten—neither side will be able to fulfill even a fraction of its commitments, even as the new norms are worked out for cargo and ports during the pandemic period. Whether that means a return to trade war or a willingness to work from a blank slate after the dust settles is uncertain—but I’d bet on the former, with added viciousness.
Dire numbers. As the West stares into the abyss of depression, the Chinese numbers for the lockdown period aren’t encouraging. The first quarter is likely to see a 9 percent contraction in economic activity, says Goldman Sachs. Industrial output is down 13.5 percent, and retail has plummeted by 20 percent. Unemployment numbers—never reliable—have risen to 6.2 percent, the highest ever admitted. At the same time, China is bringing its state resources to bear, cushioning the immediate impact but also pushing economic reform a long way off.
Student numbers plummet. Chinese international students, facing a fresh virus crisis and a wave of racism, are flocking home. Unless something significantly changes, the number of new international students on campuses this fall will be close to zero. That’s going to be a devastating financial blow for Western universities that have become deeply dependent on Chinese student recruitment. An American degree is also going to look like a less attractive proposition in a more xenophobic China.
Relief measures. The United States is mulling massive emergency relief measures, including simply sending out checks to all citizens. In China, the high level of state control has pushed the burden largely onto businesses, which have been made to keep paying employees throughout the lockdown process. They’re now desperate for state aid to stay afloat—while workers outside the formal employment process, including migrants, have been particularly battered. Relief for individual families and vulnerable people appears to be being channeled through neighborhood committees and local governments, but income inequality is likely to sharply rise as a result.
What We’re Reading
We usually draw attention to more obscure journals or books in this space. But this time around, let’s pay tribute to some of the work by the correspondents who have just had their lives in China abruptly truncated—and get a sense of what the Chinese people are losing by their absence. Here are just three of them on the pandemic.
“Locked down in Beijing, I watched China beat back the coronavirus,” by Gerry Shih, the Washington Post
“Her Grandmother Got the Coronavirus. Then So Did the Whole Family,” by Amy Qin, the New York Times
“Coronavirus Outrage Spurs China’s Internet Police to Action,” by Paul Mozur, the New York Times
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-18--Sorry, America, the Full Lockdown Is Coming

Sorry , America , the Full Lockdown Is Coming A few days ago I shared wine , cheese , and camaraderie with a small group of close friends , and sadly , after five excellent bottles of Côtes du Rhône wine , we said goodbye to one another , knowing we shall not again share company for many weeks , perhaps months .
Yesterday my dearest neighbors knocked on the door , carts loaded with suitcases and boxes in tow , to wish me well for the duration of the great pandemic .
We air-hugged , and I sadly watched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , abandoning New York City for their country home .
As they wandered off , I said , “ See you in September , I hope—or whenever things are normal again.
” For some countries—Italy , South Korea , and Singapore for example—the moment of decision and personal preparation has long since passed , and millions of people are stuck in place , watching their epidemic unfold .
On the eve of St. Patrick ’ s Day , the mayor of San Francisco ordered her entire population to “ shelter in place ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of opportunity to relocate has closed for residents of the Bay Area .
Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver , office in London , or on a subway in New York City , you need to think hard , and fast , about two crucial questions : Where , and with whom , do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life , hunkered down for the epidemic duration ?
And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days , at most .
Airports will close , trains will shut down , gasoline supplies may dwindle , and roadblocks may be set up .
Nations are closing their borders , and as the numbers of sick rise , towns , suburbs , even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel .
Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the United States , Canada , Mexico , and the United Kingdom , pay heed to Italy , France , and Germany .
The United States , for example , is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago .
France and Germany , which track two to five days ahead of the United States , are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy , including lockdowns on movement and social activity .
In a matter of days , the United States will follow suit .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members or close friends who require your special attention , and have no alternative living space , you have no decision to make .
You are where you will be for coming weeks .
Many households are now swelling as colleges and universities close , sending students to their parents ’ homes , and young adults find themselves facing financial ruin amid the shutdown of theaters , restaurants , gig economy work , construction sites , and other forms of employment lacking job protection and home leave assistance .
These young adults may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ homes , or to secondary residences owned by friends or relatives .
As employers shift to work-from-home status , white-collar workers with salaried jobs need to consider where best to hunker down , allowing them strong Internet access and a home work setting .
For workers whose jobs require physical presence at a work site , such as custodians , factory workers , security guards , construction personnel , taxi drivers , and the like , the relocation option is decided—stay put .
But many may lose their jobs , either temporarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the prospect of six to eight weeks without an income stream is excruciating .
Anybody facing that prospect should immediately negotiate with their landlords , mortgage lenders , and utilities , seeking long-term payment options , and scour for information regarding their legal rights if threatened with eviction , power shut-off , or lost credit due to epidemic-spawned nonpayment .
Because elderly people , particularly those with underlying medical conditions , are at special risk for severe reactions to COVID-19 , including death , many families are making choices to move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or bring them to live with their adult children and grandchildren .
These can be painful decisions , particularly if the elder ’ s health requires daily attention or features dementia .
As the epidemic worsens , it will become increasingly dangerous for such elders to travel : Tough choices must be made immediately .
Once tough location decisions have been made , the household must be readied for a long siege .
While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer , getting through eight months of confinement with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , both physically and psychologically .
This is especially true for households that span generations .
Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual , a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router , and a great deal of shared patience .
Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread , and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home .
The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites—it isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drifting about in the air for hours .
It dehydrates quickly if not inside water , mucus , or fomite droplets .
The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see , but they are gravity-sensitive , and will fall from an individual ’ s mouth down , eventually , to the nearest lower surface—table , desk , floor .
You do not need to clean upward .
However , a newly published study , backed by the National Institutes of Health , found that the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three hours , up to four hours on copper , up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.
” This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob , tabletop , kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil .
Both the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Occupational Safety and Health Administration have posted cleaning guidelines , indicating which simple , inexpensive products can eliminate the coronavirus from surfaces in your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attention to the most commonly shared surfaces in your home or work area : door knobs , light switches , phones , faucets , toilet handles , kitchen utensils , computer keyboards , and remote controls .
The virus is killed by ultraviolet sunlight , and air flow will hasten dehydration .
Do not create air flow by turning on building central air systems—you will spread contamination .
If there are windows , open them wide and leave them open whenever weather conditions allow .
If there are curtains or shades , open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If available , wear latex or heavy-duty dishwashing gloves while cleaning anything that an individual suspected to be infected with COVID-19 has had contact with .
Place all used gloves and other disposable contaminated items in a bag that can be tied closed before disposing of them with other waste .
Wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds immediately after removing gloves .
If you live in an apartment , condominium , or co-housing facility , ask management to post signs limiting the number of people allowed to share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the cars while maintaining a distance of three feet from one another .
Elevator buttons should be cleaned regularly .
Deliveries should be left in a common area , such as the building lobby , rather than having outsiders use the elevators and knock on household doors .
And all residents should be asked to please be mindful of contagion courtesy , covering mouths when coughing or sneezing and teaching children to do the same .
After coughing or sneezing into hands , do not touch public surfaces in the building such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ door handles .
It ’ s also important to prepare psychologically .
Every family or couple has its issues , and tensions can amplify during long confinement .
Common sense can ease the shared suffering .
If children are undergoing remote schooling , and parents are simultaneously working remotely , everybody needs headphones , plenty of computer bandwidth , and a designated workspace .
Before stores close , make sure every user has proper cables , headphones , batteries , adapters , and other tools of the computer trade .
Printers , if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and ink : Have plenty on hand .
Everybody needs routines , including exercise and recreation .
Shared burdens of cooking and cleaning should be offset by shared play and fun .
Boredom and stress can suck the lifeblood out of a person .
Before your home goes on lockdown , make sure your download accounts for movies and television are paid .
There are plenty of good books around the house , and games and decks of cards are handy .
Plan now for your state of siege .
Don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survive the pandemic , with whom , and how .
Your window of opportunity to act is shrinking , very fast .
Correction , March 18 , 2020 : San Francisco Mayor London Breed ordered her entire population to “ shelter in place ” this week .
A previous version of this article incorrectly described the mayor .

A few days ago I shared wine, cheese, and camaraderie with a small group of close friends, and sadly, after five excellent bottles of Côtes du Rhône wine, we said goodbye to one another, knowing we shall not again share company for many weeks, perhaps months. Yesterday my dearest neighbors knocked on the door, carts loaded with suitcases and boxes in tow, to wish me well for the duration of the great pandemic. We air-hugged, and I sadly watched them tromp off to their packed vehicle, abandoning New York City for their country home. As they wandered off, I said, “See you in September, I hope—or whenever things are normal again.”
A few days ago I shared wine, cheese, and camaraderie with a small group of close friends, and sadly, after five excellent bottles of Côtes du Rhône wine, we said goodbye to one another, knowing we shall not again share company for many weeks, perhaps months. Yesterday my dearest neighbors knocked on the door, carts loaded with suitcases and boxes in tow, to wish me well for the duration of the great pandemic. We air-hugged, and I sadly watched them tromp off to their packed vehicle, abandoning New York City for their country home. As they wandered off, I said, “See you in September, I hope—or whenever things are normal again.”
For some countries—Italy, South Korea, and Singapore for example—the moment of decision and personal preparation has long since passed, and millions of people are stuck in place, watching their epidemic unfold. On the eve of St. Patrick’s Day, the mayor of San Francisco ordered her entire population to “shelter in place” for a few weeks: The window of opportunity to relocate has closed for residents of the Bay Area.
Whether you are reading this in your living room in Vancouver, office in London, or on a subway in New York City, you need to think hard, and fast, about two crucial questions: Where, and with whom, do you want to spend the next six to 12 weeks of your life, hunkered down for the epidemic duration? And what can you do to make that place as safe as possible for yourself and those around you?
Your time to answer those questions is very short—a few days, at most. Airports will close, trains will shut down, gasoline supplies may dwindle, and roadblocks may be set up. Nations are closing their borders, and as the numbers of sick rise, towns, suburbs, even entire counties will try to shut the virus out by blocking travel. Wherever you decide to settle down this week is likely to be the place in which you will be stuck for the duration of your epidemic.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
To appreciate what lies ahead for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, pay heed to Italy, France, and Germany. The United States, for example, is currently tracking exactly where Italy was about 10 days ago. France and Germany, which track two to five days ahead of the United States, are now revving up measures akin to those taken by Italy, including lockdowns on movement and social activity. In a matter of days, the United States will follow suit.
If you live alone, have no family members or close friends who require your special attention, and have no alternative living space, you have no decision to make. You are where you will be for coming weeks.
Many households are now swelling as colleges and universities close, sending students to their parents’ homes, and young adults find themselves facing financial ruin amid the shutdown of theaters, restaurants, gig economy work, construction sites, and other forms of employment lacking job protection and home leave assistance. These young adults may also choose to return to their parents’ homes, or to secondary residences owned by friends or relatives.
As employers shift to work-from-home status, white-collar workers with salaried jobs need to consider where best to hunker down, allowing them strong Internet access and a home work setting. For workers whose jobs require physical presence at a work site, such as custodians, factory workers, security guards, construction personnel, taxi drivers, and the like, the relocation option is decided—stay put. But many may lose their jobs, either temporarily or permanently, due to the epidemic, and the prospect of six to eight weeks without an income stream is excruciating. Anybody facing that prospect should immediately negotiate with their landlords, mortgage lenders, and utilities, seeking long-term payment options, and scour for information regarding their legal rights if threatened with eviction, power shut-off, or lost credit due to epidemic-spawned nonpayment.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
Because elderly people, particularly those with underlying medical conditions, are at special risk for severe reactions to COVID-19, including death, many families are making choices to move closer to their aged loved ones, or bring them to live with their adult children and grandchildren. These can be painful decisions, particularly if the elder’s health requires daily attention or features dementia. As the epidemic worsens, it will become increasingly dangerous for such elders to travel: Tough choices must be made immediately.
Once tough location decisions have been made, the household must be readied for a long siege. While panic-buying has led to stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, getting through eight months of confinement with others will require a great deal more, both physically and psychologically. This is especially true for households that span generations.
Long-term confinement that includes children undergoing remote schooling and adults trying to work requires designated spaces for each individual, a powerful Internet signal and Wi-Fi router, and a great deal of shared patience. Everybody in the household must understand how the coronavirus is spread, and what steps each should follow to eliminate their personal risk of passing infection to others in the home.
The virus is transmitted by droplets and fomites—it isn’t like measles, capable of drifting about in the air for hours. It dehydrates quickly if not inside water, mucus, or fomite droplets. The size of the droplets may be far below what the human eye can see, but they are gravity-sensitive, and will fall from an individual’s mouth down, eventually, to the nearest lower surface—table, desk, floor. You do not need to clean upward.
However, a newly published study, backed by the National Institutes of Health, found that the virus survives in “aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.” This means an uncleaned surface can pose a risk to members of the household for a very long time—a doorknob, tabletop, kitchen counter or stainless steel utensil.
Both the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Occupational Safety and Health Administration have posted cleaning guidelines, indicating which simple, inexpensive products can eliminate the coronavirus from surfaces in your household or work areas. Give special attention to the most commonly shared surfaces in your home or work area: door knobs, light switches, phones, faucets, toilet handles, kitchen utensils, computer keyboards, and remote controls.
The virus is killed by ultraviolet sunlight, and air flow will hasten dehydration. Do not create air flow by turning on building central air systems—you will spread contamination. If there are windows, open them wide and leave them open whenever weather conditions allow. If there are curtains or shades, open them and let sunlight pour in.
If available, wear latex or heavy-duty dishwashing gloves while cleaning anything that an individual suspected to be infected with COVID-19 has had contact with. Place all used gloves and other disposable contaminated items in a bag that can be tied closed before disposing of them with other waste. Wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds immediately after removing gloves.
If you live in an apartment, condominium, or co-housing facility, ask management to post signs limiting the number of people allowed to share an elevator to however many can fit in the cars while maintaining a distance of three feet from one another. Elevator buttons should be cleaned regularly. Deliveries should be left in a common area, such as the building lobby, rather than having outsiders use the elevators and knock on household doors.
And all residents should be asked to please be mindful of contagion courtesy, covering mouths when coughing or sneezing and teaching children to do the same. After coughing or sneezing into hands, do not touch public surfaces in the building such as elevator buttons, banisters, and door handles.
It’s also important to prepare psychologically. Every family or couple has its issues, and tensions can amplify during long confinement. Common sense can ease the shared suffering.
If children are undergoing remote schooling, and parents are simultaneously working remotely, everybody needs headphones, plenty of computer bandwidth, and a designated workspace. Before stores close, make sure every user has proper cables, headphones, batteries, adapters, and other tools of the computer trade.
Printers, if they will be used, require paper and ink: Have plenty on hand.
Everybody needs routines, including exercise and recreation. Shared burdens of cooking and cleaning should be offset by shared play and fun.
Boredom and stress can suck the lifeblood out of a person. Before your home goes on lockdown, make sure your download accounts for movies and television are paid. There are plenty of good books around the house, and games and decks of cards are handy.
Plan now for your state of siege. Don’t delay. Choose where you want to survive the pandemic, with whom, and how. Your window of opportunity to act is shrinking, very fast.
Correction, March 18, 2020: San Francisco Mayor London Breed ordered her entire population to “shelter in place” this week. A previous version of this article incorrectly described the mayor.