foreignpolicy--2020-01-29--China Leaps Into Breach Between Myanmar and West

China Leaps Into Breach Between Myanmar and West A raft of new multibillion-dollar development deals announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Myanmar earlier this month show how Beijing is back in business in the country after being sidelined from one of its preferred geopolitical stomping grounds for several years as Naypyidaw turned toward the West .
The new China-Myanmar flirtation is more worrisome for policymakers in New Delhi , looking across the Bay of Bengal at Myanmar .
China ’ s renewed economic offensive , especially the construction of a new deep-water port , threatens to further encircle India @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increasingly aggressive China across the breadth of the Indian Ocean .
In the first visit by a Chinese leader in nearly two decades , Xi announced more than a score of big investments in Myanmar , which is still trying to rebuild its infrastructure and jumpstart its economy after laboring under Western sanctions for about 20 years .
The deals included , crucially , an announcement on the construction of the long-discussed deep-water port at Kyaukpyu .
The high-profile visit and big accords were seen as particularly significant because Myanmar ( also known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ itself from Beijing ’ s longtime influence , beginning around 2011 , and had until recently been increasingly open to more engagement with the West .
That prompted concern in Beijing , which long supported the army in Myanmar and played an outsized role in the country ’ s economy , making it a virtual geopolitical appendage in Southeast Asia .
“ China viewed Burmese reengagement with the West through a zero-sum prism : It felt better relations with the West were coming at its expense , ” said Derek Mitchell , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Myanmar during its opening to the West .
Xi ’ s visit seems to have turned that around , highlighting how Beijing has been able to take advantage of Myanmar ’ s recent falling out with the West over allegations of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya minority and general backsliding on human rights by once-lionized leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi .
“ Since the alienation of the West over the Rohingya issue , China has seen a new opening and a new opportunity in this , and they are more able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their line there , ” said Mitchell , now the president of the National Democratic Institute , a nonprofit that supports democracy around the world .
“ They use it as an opportunity to invest , whether through the Belt and Road or the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor , or the peace process—those are all different ways to ensure that Burma remains in its sphere of influence.
” During Xi ’ s visit , Myanmar didn ’ t cave to all of Beijing ’ s requests , notably resisting calls to restart the stalled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2011 .
Even the deep-water port , which China long sought , only came after Myanmar talked down the price from more than $ 7 billion to a little over $ 1 billion , leaving it less vulnerable to any Chinese debt trap .
And a lot of what Xi announced was long in the works , in some ways turning it into a political stunt helpful to leaders in both countries rather than a new road map for development .
“ My sense is that the deals announced were a collection of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a demonstration of Burma ’ s desire to resist overwhelming Chinese influence , ” Mitchell said .
Long history , shared borders , and lopsided demographics have made Myanmar leery of too close an embrace from China .
“ They have no illusions about China , ” he said .
But among the new Chinese projects , the deep-water port in Kyaukpyu stands out as perhaps the most important in advancing Beijing ’ s geopolitical interests throughout the wider region .
For China , a new deep-water port on the western coast of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ miles from the easternmost Indian-held islands , is just the latest chapter in Beijing ’ s spree of port acquisitions that underwrite the maritime half of its Belt and Road Initiative .
Kyaukpyu holds special significance for a country that has spent years fretting about its reliance on imported supplies of energy that must thread the vulnerable Strait of Malacca near Singapore : Kyaukpyu is the terminus of the huge natural gas pipeline China built to bypass Malacca and ensure energy supplies while avoiding the so-called Malacca Dilemma .
From Southeast Asia to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coast of Africa , the Mediterranean , the North Sea , and even in Latin America , China in recent years has acquired outright ownership , development rights , or a management concession to a bevy of strategically located ports .
Chinese port deals in Pakistan , Sri Lanka , Djibouti , the Maldives , and the Seychelles have all made headlines and chilled Indian planners who fear being choked by a Chinese “ string of pearls.
” The ports are meant as commercial trading posts to enhance China ’ s world-leading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s exports .
But they have increasingly come to play a potentially more menacing role as dual-use ports that can give the beefed-up Chinese navy a global reach it lacked entirely just a few years ago .
“ As I see things , the Chinese are trying this at all possible places and countries , ” said Indian Navy Capt .
Gurpreet Khurana , former executive director of the country ’ s National Maritime Foundation , in an email .
“ Even while the Belt and Road has a predominantly geo-economic motive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military-strategic end.
” Why exactly would a yet-to-be-built port on the coast of an impoverished Southeast Asian nation give India pause ?
A lot has to do with how China has meshed commercial and strategic interests in the development of the maritime portion of the Belt and Road .
Its investment in the Gwadar Port in Pakistan , for example , has long worried India .
Chinese legal directives ordering state-owned shipping companies to offer logistics support to the Chinese navy—as they have done in recent years—turn China ’ s huge shipping fleet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its growing navy .
The prospect that China would use commercial ports to expand the overseas reach of its navy has been around for years and has yet to fully materialize ; while China has openly turned Djibouti into a military facility , other Chinese-owned ports , such as those in Sri Lanka and Cambodia , have only sporadically hosted Chinese naval vessels so far .
But Indian and U.S. naval officers are increasingly concerned that China ’ s port-buying spree is laying the groundwork to enable its already huge and growing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese coast .
Closing that logistics gap—something the U.S. Navy did at sea during World War II , and with overseas bases in the decades that followed—became a priority for the Chinese navy after its first long-distance naval deployments to fight piracy off Somalia more than a decade ago .
“ There are many ports and countries beyond Djibouti where China can obtain military access , ” Khurana said .
“ The real potential today is in Pakistan , but more countries could be added to this list , and this is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has in recent years , as part of its eastward orientation in security and foreign policy , shifted some of its naval weight closer to Southeast Asia , including a new naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar islands , not far from where China is building its new port in Myanmar .
That ’ s partly a response to a greatly increased Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean : What began as three-ship anti-piracy patrols in 2008 became 10 years later swarms of submarines and amphibious ships , and soon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only operational aircraft carrier .
“ They are undeniably preparing for future naval operations in the area to secure their strategic and energy interests , ” Khurana said .
“ All of this is of serious concern to India , seen in conjunction with China ’ s naval cooperation with Pakistan , including Gwadar , on the western seaboard.
” In one sense , China ’ s plans for a new port in Myanmar overlooking India ’ s Andaman and Nicobar naval facilities are more reactive than aggressive .
India ’ s Navy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interdict shipping in the vital Strait of Malacca , whose vulnerability remains a headache for Chinese leadership .
The new port could give China the ability to shadow what it sees as a threat to its own energy lifelines .
“ The threat in the east is not so much to the Andamans and Nicobar , ” Khurana said .
“ On the contrary , the Andamans and Nicobar are of concern to China.
” “ The Navy has budget constraints , so their share of the budget hasn ’ t gone up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ achieve , ” said Dhruva Jaishankar , an India expert at the Observer Research Foundation .
Naval and other security cooperation with countries such as Indonesia , Myanmar , Malaysia , and Singapore “ are steps to compensate for India ’ s inability to do it alone , ” he said .
Beginning during the Obama administration , and continuing under U.S. President Donald Trump , India has also shed decades of reluctance to align too closely with the United States and has inked defense deals with Washington that help bolster its naval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greater engagement with India to secure the Indian Ocean is seen as a vital plank in America ’ s naval rivalry with China , which centers on the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea , especially the defense of Taiwan , the Philippines , and Japan .
“ The United States should pay particular attention to supporting India ’ s efforts to pose military dilemmas for China , ” thus complicating the Chinese military ’ s ability to concentrate against U.S. assets in the Western Pacific , concluded the Center for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study on the China threat released this week .
India is also stepping up cooperation with its fellow members of the so-called Quad , including the United States , Japan , and Australia , that are increasingly working together to knit the Indian Ocean into existing defense plans for the Pacific .
Just this week , India suggested that it might include Australia in this year ’ s big Quad naval exercises , which would be something of a step change for New Delhi , long hesitant to turn the informal grouping into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among the Quad is valuable … for what I call ‘ strategic deterrence ’ against China , by which I mean creating uncertainties in Beijing , ” Khurana said .
“ Having said that , it would not be wise for the leadership of the Quad countries to emphasize the military and security component.
” India could also try to outbid China by seeking to offer development and investment assistance of its own .
That ’ s a route that Japan has taken , with some success , to counter China ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The United States , too , has taken baby steps toward beefing up its ability to play checkbook diplomacy and compete with Chinese financing for much-needed infrastructure projects that Beijing uses to buy influence .
India has built a port of its own in Myanmar , and the Indian government coaxed private sector firms into building a highway across Myanmar to the Thai border , but India doesn ’ t have the deep pockets and opaque leadership that Beijing enjoys when it comes to buying influence .
“ India is more constrained , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about $ 30 billion for different kinds of infrastructure financing all over the world since about 2003 , he estimates , but that pales in comparison to the headline figures of China ’ s $ 1 trillion Belt and Road .
“ It ’ s not large-scale checkbook diplomacy , and it ’ s not that significant compared to China , but it ’ s not insignificant , ” he said .
To regain influence in the region , whether for India , the United States , or even Europe , may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more a question of how .
Myanmar , like so many other countries on the receiving end of Chinese largesse , is desperate for financing to help build roads , ports , power plants , and other heavy infrastructure that will drive economic growth .
But Chinese loans come with strings attached—as Sri Lanka discovered—that can create a deadly debt trap , in addition to expanding China ’ s geopolitical and military reach .
And Chinese projects often are ill-vetted , fail to be transparent , and offer little benefit to local populations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other countries to compete with China—and blunt some of its recent gains .
“ Burma is interested in the ‘ how ’ —if money comes in transparently , and shows respect for Burmese sovereignty , it will be very competitive , ” said Mitchell , the former ambassador .
“ The ‘ how ’ is the way to gain an advantage over China .
”

A raft of new multibillion-dollar development deals announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Myanmar earlier this month show how Beijing is back in business in the country after being sidelined from one of its preferred geopolitical stomping grounds for several years as Naypyidaw turned toward the West.
A raft of new multibillion-dollar development deals announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Myanmar earlier this month show how Beijing is back in business in the country after being sidelined from one of its preferred geopolitical stomping grounds for several years as Naypyidaw turned toward the West.
The new China-Myanmar flirtation is more worrisome for policymakers in New Delhi, looking across the Bay of Bengal at Myanmar. China’s renewed economic offensive, especially the construction of a new deep-water port, threatens to further encircle India, already feeling the squeeze of an increasingly aggressive China across the breadth of the Indian Ocean.
In the first visit by a Chinese leader in nearly two decades, Xi announced more than a score of big investments in Myanmar, which is still trying to rebuild its infrastructure and jumpstart its economy after laboring under Western sanctions for about 20 years. The deals included, crucially, an announcement on the construction of the long-discussed deep-water port at Kyaukpyu.
The high-profile visit and big accords were seen as particularly significant because Myanmar (also known as Burma) had started to distance itself from Beijing’s longtime influence, beginning around 2011, and had until recently been increasingly open to more engagement with the West. That prompted concern in Beijing, which long supported the army in Myanmar and played an outsized role in the country’s economy, making it a virtual geopolitical appendage in Southeast Asia.
“China viewed Burmese reengagement with the West through a zero-sum prism: It felt better relations with the West were coming at its expense,” said Derek Mitchell, a former U.S. special envoy and ambassador to Myanmar during its opening to the West.
Xi’s visit seems to have turned that around, highlighting how Beijing has been able to take advantage of Myanmar’s recent falling out with the West over allegations of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya minority and general backsliding on human rights by once-lionized leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi.
“Since the alienation of the West over the Rohingya issue, China has seen a new opening and a new opportunity in this, and they are more able to have their say in Naypyidaw and push their line there,” said Mitchell, now the president of the National Democratic Institute, a nonprofit that supports democracy around the world. “They use it as an opportunity to invest, whether through the Belt and Road or the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, or the peace process—those are all different ways to ensure that Burma remains in its sphere of influence.”
During Xi’s visit, Myanmar didn’t cave to all of Beijing’s requests, notably resisting calls to restart the stalled hydroelectric project whose cancellation chilled relations in 2011. Even the deep-water port, which China long sought, only came after Myanmar talked down the price from more than $7 billion to a little over $1 billion, leaving it less vulnerable to any Chinese debt trap. And a lot of what Xi announced was long in the works, in some ways turning it into a political stunt helpful to leaders in both countries rather than a new road map for development.
“My sense is that the deals announced were a collection of things already underway and was as much a demonstration of Burma’s desire to resist overwhelming Chinese influence,” Mitchell said. Long history, shared borders, and lopsided demographics have made Myanmar leery of too close an embrace from China. “They have no illusions about China,” he said.
But among the new Chinese projects, the deep-water port in Kyaukpyu stands out as perhaps the most important in advancing Beijing’s geopolitical interests throughout the wider region. For China, a new deep-water port on the western coast of Myanmar, perched just a few hundred miles from the easternmost Indian-held islands, is just the latest chapter in Beijing’s spree of port acquisitions that underwrite the maritime half of its Belt and Road Initiative. Kyaukpyu holds special significance for a country that has spent years fretting about its reliance on imported supplies of energy that must thread the vulnerable Strait of Malacca near Singapore: Kyaukpyu is the terminus of the huge natural gas pipeline China built to bypass Malacca and ensure energy supplies while avoiding the so-called Malacca Dilemma.
From Southeast Asia to the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, the coast of Africa, the Mediterranean, the North Sea, and even in Latin America, China in recent years has acquired outright ownership, development rights, or a management concession to a bevy of strategically located ports. Chinese port deals in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, the Maldives, and the Seychelles have all made headlines and chilled Indian planners who fear being choked by a Chinese “string of pearls.”
The ports are meant as commercial trading posts to enhance China’s world-leading shipping industry and bolster the country’s exports. But they have increasingly come to play a potentially more menacing role as dual-use ports that can give the beefed-up Chinese navy a global reach it lacked entirely just a few years ago.
“As I see things, the Chinese are trying this at all possible places and countries,” said Indian Navy Capt. Gurpreet Khurana, former executive director of the country’s National Maritime Foundation, in an email. “Even while the Belt and Road has a predominantly geo-economic motive, it is also being used for this military-strategic end.”
Why exactly would a yet-to-be-built port on the coast of an impoverished Southeast Asian nation give India pause? A lot has to do with how China has meshed commercial and strategic interests in the development of the maritime portion of the Belt and Road. Its investment in the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, for example, has long worried India. Chinese legal directives ordering state-owned shipping companies to offer logistics support to the Chinese navy—as they have done in recent years—turn China’s huge shipping fleet and port operations into a potential adjunct of its growing navy.
The prospect that China would use commercial ports to expand the overseas reach of its navy has been around for years and has yet to fully materialize; while China has openly turned Djibouti into a military facility, other Chinese-owned ports, such as those in Sri Lanka and Cambodia, have only sporadically hosted Chinese naval vessels so far.
But Indian and U.S. naval officers are increasingly concerned that China’s port-buying spree is laying the groundwork to enable its already huge and growing navy to dominate waters far from the Chinese coast. Closing that logistics gap—something the U.S. Navy did at sea during World War II, and with overseas bases in the decades that followed—became a priority for the Chinese navy after its first long-distance naval deployments to fight piracy off Somalia more than a decade ago.
“There are many ports and countries beyond Djibouti where China can obtain military access,” Khurana said. “The real potential today is in Pakistan, but more countries could be added to this list, and this is a matter of concern for India.”
India has in recent years, as part of its eastward orientation in security and foreign policy, shifted some of its naval weight closer to Southeast Asia, including a new naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, not far from where China is building its new port in Myanmar. That’s partly a response to a greatly increased Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean: What began as three-ship anti-piracy patrols in 2008 became 10 years later swarms of submarines and amphibious ships, and soon, perhaps, patrols by China’s only operational aircraft carrier.
“They are undeniably preparing for future naval operations in the area to secure their strategic and energy interests,” Khurana said. “All of this is of serious concern to India, seen in conjunction with China’s naval cooperation with Pakistan, including Gwadar, on the western seaboard.”
In one sense, China’s plans for a new port in Myanmar overlooking India’s Andaman and Nicobar naval facilities are more reactive than aggressive. India’s Navy in those islands is in position to interdict shipping in the vital Strait of Malacca, whose vulnerability remains a headache for Chinese leadership. The new port could give China the ability to shadow what it sees as a threat to its own energy lifelines.
“The threat in the east is not so much to the Andamans and Nicobar,” Khurana said. “On the contrary, the Andamans and Nicobar are of concern to China.”
So what is India to do? It has been trying since at least 2012 to modernize and expand its navy to deal with the growing threat from China, but money is tight, and platforms have yet to materialize. That makes it harder to sustain India’s desire to become the go-to security provider in the Indian Ocean, and it makes greater cooperation with regional neighbors and countries like the United States more important.
“The Navy has budget constraints, so their share of the budget hasn’t gone up to match what they would like to achieve,” said Dhruva Jaishankar, an India expert at the Observer Research Foundation. Naval and other security cooperation with countries such as Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Singapore “are steps to compensate for India’s inability to do it alone,” he said.
Beginning during the Obama administration, and continuing under U.S. President Donald Trump, India has also shed decades of reluctance to align too closely with the United States and has inked defense deals with Washington that help bolster its naval capacities. In Washington policy circles, greater engagement with India to secure the Indian Ocean is seen as a vital plank in America’s naval rivalry with China, which centers on the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, especially the defense of Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan.
“The United States should pay particular attention to supporting India’s efforts to pose military dilemmas for China,” thus complicating the Chinese military’s ability to concentrate against U.S. assets in the Western Pacific, concluded the Center for a New American Security in a congressionally mandated study on the China threat released this week.
India is also stepping up cooperation with its fellow members of the so-called Quad, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, that are increasingly working together to knit the Indian Ocean into existing defense plans for the Pacific. Just this week, India suggested that it might include Australia in this year’s big Quad naval exercises, which would be something of a step change for New Delhi, long hesitant to turn the informal grouping into an overt security arrangement.
“Cooperation among the Quad is valuable … for what I call ‘strategic deterrence’ against China, by which I mean creating uncertainties in Beijing,” Khurana said. “Having said that, it would not be wise for the leadership of the Quad countries to emphasize the military and security component.”
India could also try to outbid China by seeking to offer development and investment assistance of its own. That’s a route that Japan has taken, with some success, to counter China’s Belt and Road programs throughout Asia. The United States, too, has taken baby steps toward beefing up its ability to play checkbook diplomacy and compete with Chinese financing for much-needed infrastructure projects that Beijing uses to buy influence.
India has built a port of its own in Myanmar, and the Indian government coaxed private sector firms into building a highway across Myanmar to the Thai border, but India doesn’t have the deep pockets and opaque leadership that Beijing enjoys when it comes to buying influence.
“India is more constrained,” Jaishankar said. It has provided about $30 billion for different kinds of infrastructure financing all over the world since about 2003, he estimates, but that pales in comparison to the headline figures of China’s $1 trillion Belt and Road. “It’s not large-scale checkbook diplomacy, and it’s not that significant compared to China, but it’s not insignificant,” he said.
To regain influence in the region, whether for India, the United States, or even Europe, may be less a question of how much and more a question of how.
Myanmar, like so many other countries on the receiving end of Chinese largesse, is desperate for financing to help build roads, ports, power plants, and other heavy infrastructure that will drive economic growth. But Chinese loans come with strings attached—as Sri Lanka discovered—that can create a deadly debt trap, in addition to expanding China’s geopolitical and military reach. And Chinese projects often are ill-vetted, fail to be transparent, and offer little benefit to local populations. That creates an opening for India and other countries to compete with China—and blunt some of its recent gains.
“Burma is interested in the ‘how’—if money comes in transparently, and shows respect for Burmese sovereignty, it will be very competitive,” said Mitchell, the former ambassador. “The ‘how’ is the way to gain an advantage over China.”


Brexit Officially Arrives

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Britain is set to leave the European Union at midnight , Turkey braces for more refugee arrivals as a Russian-backed Syrian offensive in Idlib province displaces hundreds of thousands , and international airlines cancel flights to China over the Wuhan virus outbreak .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Britain officially exits the European Union at midnight Central European Time today , after three and a half years of negotiations with the bloc .
The U.K. withdrawal agreement was quietly finalized in Brussels on Thursday .
In London @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though Brexit supporters , including Nigel Farage , have planned a celebration in Parliament Square .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson , who campaigned last month on a promise to “ Get Brexit Done , ” will not attend .
During the transition period—until Britain leaves the EU customs union at the end of the year—the change will be felt in Brussels .
There are still more negotiations ahead , as officials hash out the future of EU-U.K. relations .
And the EU Parliament will no longer have U.K. voting members , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France and Germany could struggle to lead the bloc without Britain , the EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager said Thursday : “ I think we will see a new dynamic in the union , but it will take some time before we fully recover.
” What about the British economy ?
On Thursday , the Bank of England decided not to cut interest rates , amid signs that the economy was improving ahead of the Brexit deadline .
The move was a bit of a surprise , and the value of the British @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggest that Britain ’ s economy grew by 1 percent at most last year , with the Bank of England forecasting sluggish growth over the next two years .
Will Scotland break away ?
Scottish lawmakers voted on Wednesday in favor of a second independence referendum , and a poll published Thursday revealed that a slim majority of people in Scotland now support independence—boosted by those who changed their minds because of Brexit .
With increasing popular support , the Scottish National Party isn ’ t likely to give up its push for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maxwell reports for FP .
Hundreds of thousands flee Syria ’ s Idlib .
A Russian-backed Syrian Army campaign to take back Idlib in Syria ’ s northwest—the last rebel stronghold—has forced more than 700,000 people to flee toward the Turkish border .
U.S. Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said Thursday that the military campaign would create an “ international crisis.
” The assault has increased tensions between Moscow and Ankara , which fears a new influx of refugees .
Turkey already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrians , and the Turkish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would take “ additional measures ” against attacks on civilians and Turkish troops .
U.S. Senate votes on additional impeachment witnesses .
U.S. senators will vote today on whether to allow additional witnesses in the impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump .
As the senators ’ two days of questioning wrapped up on Thursday , Republicans appeared optimistic that they would have the votes to stop the testimony of any more witnesses , such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton .
If the Senate declines to admit further evidence in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote to acquit Trump—though Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has hinted at a Democratic plan to stall the vote .
Airlines are suspending flights to China .
Many international airlines are suspending flights to mainland China for weeks or longer over the Wuhan virus , including Air France , American Airlines , British Airways , Lufthansa , and Turkish Airlines .
( Here ’ s a full list . )
The U.S. government has warned citizens not to travel to China .
The announcements come as the World Health Organization ( WHO ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health emergency on Thursday , with confirmed cases in 18 countries .
The move by the WHO will trigger stricter guidelines around containment and information sharing , though it did not include a recommendation for limiting trade with or travel to China .
India ’ s budget announcement .
India ’ s government is expected to reveal its budget on Saturday amid slowing economic growth .
Businesses , investors , and citizens will look to Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s plan to reverse that trend , with economists projecting GDP growth to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the fiscal year on March 31 .
The new budget is likely to increase spending and call for higher import tariffs .
Chinese investment in Myanmar .
As the West distances itself from Myanmar ’ s government over allegations of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya minority , China is stepping in to fill the gap with multibillion-dollar development deals .
The economic offensive is worrying for policymakers in India , already feeling the squeeze of an increasingly aggressive China , FP ’ s Keith Johnson reports .
A humanitarian channel to Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to bring essential food and medicine to Iran , beginning with cancer drugs .
Though food , medicine , and humanitarian supplies are exempt from U.S. sanctions , the measures have deterred foreign banks from doing business—including humanitarian deals—with Tehran , harming some of Iran ’ s most vulnerable citizens , as Abbas Kebriaeezadeh wrote in Foreign Policy last August .
The Swiss channel has been in the works since 2018 .
Apple ’ s App Store has taken down a digital radio app after the Verge reported it was a front for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. sanctions .
After the U.S. enacted sanctions against Iran in 2017 , Apple pulled several Iranian apps from the App Store—including Snapp , a popular ride-hailing service similar to Uber .
Users accessing the radio app , RadickRadio , with an Iranian IP address were until this week able to use Snapp instead .
After Brexit , Greece ’ s culture minister says that it plans to accelerate its campaign for the return of the Parthenon Marbles—also known as the Elgin marbles .
The sculptures were removed from Athens in the early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s British Museum .
Greece has pushed to get the sculptures back since its independence in 1832 , and the government hopes that Britain ’ s departure from the EU will increase European support for their return .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Britain is set to leave the European Union at midnight, Turkey braces for more refugee arrivals as a Russian-backed Syrian offensive in Idlib province displaces hundreds of thousands, and international airlines cancel flights to China over the Wuhan virus outbreak .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Britain is set to leave the European Union at midnight, Turkey braces for more refugee arrivals as a Russian-backed Syrian offensive in Idlib province displaces hundreds of thousands, and international airlines cancel flights to China over the Wuhan virus outbreak.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Britain Leaves the European Union at Midnight
Britain officially exits the European Union at midnight Central European Time today, after three and a half years of negotiations with the bloc. The U.K. withdrawal agreement was quietly finalized in Brussels on Thursday. In London, few changes will be immediately apparent, though Brexit supporters, including Nigel Farage, have planned a celebration in Parliament Square. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who campaigned last month on a promise to “Get Brexit Done,” will not attend.
During the transition period—until Britain leaves the EU customs union at the end of the year—the change will be felt in Brussels. There are still more negotiations ahead, as officials hash out the future of EU-U.K. relations. And the EU Parliament will no longer have U.K. voting members, with 73 British lawmakers returning home. France and Germany could struggle to lead the bloc without Britain, the EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager said Thursday: “I think we will see a new dynamic in the union, but it will take some time before we fully recover.”
What about the British economy? On Thursday, the Bank of England decided not to cut interest rates, amid signs that the economy was improving ahead of the Brexit deadline. The move was a bit of a surprise, and the value of the British pound rose on the news. Economists suggest that Britain’s economy grew by 1 percent at most last year, with the Bank of England forecasting sluggish growth over the next two years.
Will Scotland break away? Scottish lawmakers voted on Wednesday in favor of a second independence referendum, and a poll published Thursday revealed that a slim majority of people in Scotland now support independence—boosted by those who changed their minds because of Brexit. With increasing popular support, the Scottish National Party isn’t likely to give up its push for another referendum despite facing obstacles, Jamie Maxwell reports for FP.
What We’re Following Today
Hundreds of thousands flee Syria’s Idlib. A Russian-backed Syrian Army campaign to take back Idlib in Syria’s northwest—the last rebel stronghold—has forced more than 700,000 people to flee toward the Turkish border. U.S. Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said Thursday that the military campaign would create an “international crisis.” The assault has increased tensions between Moscow and Ankara, which fears a new influx of refugees. Turkey already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrians, and the Turkish national security council said Thursday that it would take “additional measures” against attacks on civilians and Turkish troops.
U.S. Senate votes on additional impeachment witnesses. U.S. senators will vote today on whether to allow additional witnesses in the impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump. As the senators’ two days of questioning wrapped up on Thursday, Republicans appeared optimistic that they would have the votes to stop the testimony of any more witnesses, such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton. If the Senate declines to admit further evidence in the trial, the Republican-held chamber could quickly vote to acquit Trump—though Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has hinted at a Democratic plan to stall the vote.
Airlines are suspending flights to China. Many international airlines are suspending flights to mainland China for weeks or longer over the Wuhan virus, including Air France, American Airlines, British Airways, Lufthansa, and Turkish Airlines. (Here’s a full list.) The U.S. government has warned citizens not to travel to China. The announcements come as the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency on Thursday, with confirmed cases in 18 countries. The move by the WHO will trigger stricter guidelines around containment and information sharing, though it did not include a recommendation for limiting trade with or travel to China.
Keep an Eye On
India’s budget announcement. India’s government is expected to reveal its budget on Saturday amid slowing economic growth. Businesses, investors, and citizens will look to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to reverse that trend, with economists projecting GDP growth to reach a 10-year low at the end of the fiscal year on March 31. The new budget is likely to increase spending and call for higher import tariffs.
Chinese investment in Myanmar. As the West distances itself from Myanmar’s government over allegations of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya minority, China is stepping in to fill the gap with multibillion-dollar development deals. The economic offensive is worrying for policymakers in India, already feeling the squeeze of an increasingly aggressive China, FP’s Keith Johnson reports.
A humanitarian channel to Iran. Switzerland has launched a humanitarian channel to bring essential food and medicine to Iran, beginning with cancer drugs. Though food, medicine, and humanitarian supplies are exempt from U.S. sanctions, the measures have deterred foreign banks from doing business—including humanitarian deals—with Tehran, harming some of Iran’s most vulnerable citizens, as Abbas Kebriaeezadeh wrote in Foreign Policy last August. The Swiss channel has been in the works since 2018.
Odds and Ends
Apple’s App Store has taken down a digital radio app after the Verge reported it was a front for an Iranian ride-hailing app seeking to avoid U.S. sanctions. After the U.S. enacted sanctions against Iran in 2017, Apple pulled several Iranian apps from the App Store—including Snapp, a popular ride-hailing service similar to Uber. Users accessing the radio app, RadickRadio, with an Iranian IP address were until this week able to use Snapp instead.
After Brexit, Greece’s culture minister says that it plans to accelerate its campaign for the return of the Parthenon Marbles—also known as the Elgin marbles. The sculptures were removed from Athens in the early 19th century and placed in London’s British Museum. Greece has pushed to get the sculptures back since its independence in 1832, and the government hopes that Britain’s departure from the EU will increase European support for their return.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-29--Trump’s Peace Plan Aims to Make Israeli Occupation Permanent

One of the more insidious computer infections is known as a Trojan horse , which , like its historical namesake , can only carry out its nefarious task by tricking the user into accepting it .
In the world of computers , a Trojan horse is malware designed to mislead users about its true intent .
The same is true of U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict , officially unveiled at the White House on Tuesday .
After nearly two years of delays and endless speculation , and with a beaming Israeli Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump finally released his so-called “ deal of the century ” at an elaborate White House ceremony .
Palestinian leaders , who had already rejected the plan sight unseen and have refused to deal with the Trump administration since its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel ’ s capital in December 2017 , were not invited to the unveiling .
At first glance , the plan appears to have an air of reasonability .
It talks of a “ realistic two-state solution ” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict , pledges an unprecedented $ 50 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ words “ Palestinian capital ” and “ Jerusalem ” in the same sentence .
Beyond the thin veneer of acceptability , however , is a far more insidious program that is designed to do away with a genuine two-state solution while normalizing permanent Israeli occupation and annexation within a de facto one-state reality .
With its glossy cover , talk of a two-state solution , and the promise of billions of dollars in investment , Trump ’ s peace plan is little more than a piece of political malware masquerading as a credible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to bring about peace but to normalize the status quo , including Israel ’ s military rule over millions of Palestinians , and render it permanent .
Despite its talk of “ compromises ” on “ both sides , ” the plan satisfies a long list of right-wing Israeli demands on virtually all core issues in the conflict—from an undivided Jerusalem to annexing occupied territory to liquidating the rights of Palestinian refugees .
Although the plan purports to be “ realistic ” and “ fact-based , ” it is mired in historical and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is no single reference to Israel ’ s occupation .
Indeed , in his White House speech , Netanyahu derided the notion of Israel as an occupying power—a matter of long-standing international consensus—as “ the big lie.
” The plan proposes mostly cosmetic modifications to the status quo while taking all of the issues that Palestinians care about most—Jerusalem , refugees , and genuine sovereignty—off the table .
Jerusalem , perhaps the most sensitive and contentious of all permanent status issues , would remain undivided and under permanent Israeli sovereignty .
The centerpiece @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a so-called Palestinian state in roughly 70 percent of the West Bank but one that is shorn of any meaningful sovereignty .
The roughly 120 or so Israeli settlements , along with the 650,000 Israeli settlers now living throughout the Israeli-occupied West Bank , would remain under permanent Israeli control , as would the entirety of the Jordan Valley—thus completely encircling the putative Palestinian state with annexed Israeli land .
The Trump vision is in effect a recipe for indefinite Israeli occupation—a sort of Palestinian Bantustan surrounded by Israel and entirely at its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airspace , territorial waters , and electromagnetic sphere would remain under Israel ’ s control , while its government would be stripped of the ability to enter into treaties .
Territorial contiguity would be reserved for Israel and its settlements , while Palestinians would get only “ transportation contiguity ” through a “ state-of-the-art ” network of bridges , roads , and tunnels .
What ’ s more , the emergence of this encircled and disjointed Palestinian entity would itself be subject to numerous conditions , including an array of legal , political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as the disarming and pacification of Hamas in Gaza—with the ultimate decision on whether the conditions had been met left to Israel .
One of the more disturbing elements of the Trump plan includes a proposal to swap areas of Israel proper that are currently heavily populated by Palestinian citizens of Israel to the so-called Palestinian state—an idea championed by racial purists on Israel ’ s far-right , who seek to reduce the number of non-Jews living in Israel .
Jerusalem , perhaps the most sensitive and contentious of all permanent status @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanent Israeli sovereignty .
Palestinians would be allowed to set up a capital near ( but notably not in ) the city of Jerusalem , which “ could be named Al-Quds or another name as determined by the State of Palestine.
” The plan also takes the issue of Palestinian refugees , including those who fled or were driven from their homes during Israel ’ s creation in 1948 and their descendants , off the table .
While previous peace negotiations—including the Clinton Parameters of 2000 and the Annapolis negotiations of 2007-2008—provided for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refugees , the Trump plan states rather explicitly that there would be “ no right of return by , or absorption of , any Palestinian refugee into the State of Israel.
” Instead , Palestinian refugees would choose integration in their current host countries , resettlement in third countries , or absorption in the newly created Palestinian entity .
The chances that Palestinians would agree to negotiate on the basis of the Trump vision are nil .
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas angrily dismissed the plan as a “ conspiracy ” that would eventually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of history ” while threatening to take the matter to the International Court of Justice .
The plan may well have been designed to elicit a Palestinian “ no , ” which could then be used as pretext for Israeli annexation .
Indeed , within hours of the plan ’ s unveiling , Netanyahu announced that the process of extending Israeli sovereignty to areas not allocated to the Palestinian entity would be taken up by the Knesset , Israel ’ s parliament , within a matter of days .
Trump ’ s ambassador @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quick to offer unqualified support for any such annexation .
This is certainly not the first U.S.-sponsored initiative to be heavily weighted in Israel ’ s favor—though perhaps none in the past has been biased quite as brazenly as this one .
However , previous administrations had at least paid lip service to basic international norms and principles , namely by calling for an end to Israel ’ s occupation and insisting on at least a theoretical right to self-determination for Palestinians .
By contrast , Trump has systematically and explicitly done away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have undergirded the peace process for more than half a century and that have been the primary incentive for Palestinians to engage in a diplomatic process with its far more powerful adversary , Israel .
This discarding of precedents and principles began with the December 2017 decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel ’ s capital , overturning 70 years of U.S. policy and defying a long-standing international consensus , followed by a decision to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights , and finally U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ’ s declaration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be considered illegal .
Whether the Trump plan gains traction will depend on how it is received by key political actors internationally and at home .
The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Egypt , eager to please the Trump administration , have already made positive statements about the plan , as has U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other world leaders , though it remains unclear whether Arab and European leaders will be prepared to go beyond diplomatic pleasantries and actively embrace the Trump vision .
Already , several congressional Democrats and Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pro-peace groups , have publicly called out the Trump plan as a farce .
Some observers will find it tempting to seize on the plan ’ s apparent advocacy of a two-state solution or argue that regional leaders should give the plan a chance or at least try to build on some of its positive elements .
But to do so , whether out of naivete , indifference , or fecklessness , would only allow the virus of Trump ’ s plan to infect the region ’ s diplomatic ecosystem while crashing any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two-state solution .
The real threat to peace is not whether the Trump plan will fail but whether it will succeed .
As with a Trojan horse virus , the surest way to avoid infection is to never accept the program in the first place .

One of the more insidious computer infections is known as a Trojan horse, which, like its historical namesake, can only carry out its nefarious task by tricking the user into accepting it. In the world of computers, a Trojan horse is malware designed to mislead users about its true intent. The same is true of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, officially unveiled at the White House on Tuesday.
One of the more insidious computer infections is known as a Trojan horse, which, like its historical namesake, can only carry out its nefarious task by tricking the user into accepting it. In the world of computers, a Trojan horse is malware designed to mislead users about its true intent. The same is true of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, officially unveiled at the White House on Tuesday.
After nearly two years of delays and endless speculation, and with a beaming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu standing by his side, Trump finally released his so-called “deal of the century” at an elaborate White House ceremony. Palestinian leaders, who had already rejected the plan sight unseen and have refused to deal with the Trump administration since its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017, were not invited to the unveiling.
At first glance, the plan appears to have an air of reasonability. It talks of a “realistic two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, pledges an unprecedented $50 billion in investment, and even mentions the words “Palestinian capital” and “Jerusalem” in the same sentence. Beyond the thin veneer of acceptability, however, is a far more insidious program that is designed to do away with a genuine two-state solution while normalizing permanent Israeli occupation and annexation within a de facto one-state reality.
With its glossy cover, talk of a two-state solution, and the promise of billions of dollars in investment, Trump’s peace plan is little more than a piece of political malware masquerading as a credible diplomatic initiative. The goal is not to bring about peace but to normalize the status quo, including Israel’s military rule over millions of Palestinians, and render it permanent.
Despite its talk of “compromises” on “both sides,” the plan satisfies a long list of right-wing Israeli demands on virtually all core issues in the conflict—from an undivided Jerusalem to annexing occupied territory to liquidating the rights of Palestinian refugees. Although the plan purports to be “realistic” and “fact-based,” it is mired in historical and political revisionism.
For starters, there is no single reference to Israel’s occupation. Indeed, in his White House speech, Netanyahu derided the notion of Israel as an occupying power—a matter of long-standing international consensus—as “the big lie.” The plan proposes mostly cosmetic modifications to the status quo while taking all of the issues that Palestinians care about most—Jerusalem, refugees, and genuine sovereignty—off the table. Jerusalem, perhaps the most sensitive and contentious of all permanent status issues, would remain undivided and under permanent Israeli sovereignty.
The centerpiece of the plan is the creation of a so-called Palestinian state in roughly 70 percent of the West Bank but one that is shorn of any meaningful sovereignty. The roughly 120 or so Israeli settlements, along with the 650,000 Israeli settlers now living throughout the Israeli-occupied West Bank, would remain under permanent Israeli control, as would the entirety of the Jordan Valley—thus completely encircling the putative Palestinian state with annexed Israeli land. The Trump vision is in effect a recipe for indefinite Israeli occupation—a sort of Palestinian Bantustan surrounded by Israel and entirely at its mercy.
Palestine’s borders, airspace, territorial waters, and electromagnetic sphere would remain under Israel’s control, while its government would be stripped of the ability to enter into treaties. Territorial contiguity would be reserved for Israel and its settlements, while Palestinians would get only “transportation contiguity” through a “state-of-the-art” network of bridges, roads, and tunnels.
What’s more, the emergence of this encircled and disjointed Palestinian entity would itself be subject to numerous conditions, including an array of legal, political, fiscal, and security reforms, such as the disarming and pacification of Hamas in Gaza—with the ultimate decision on whether the conditions had been met left to Israel. One of the more disturbing elements of the Trump plan includes a proposal to swap areas of Israel proper that are currently heavily populated by Palestinian citizens of Israel to the so-called Palestinian state—an idea championed by racial purists on Israel’s far-right, who seek to reduce the number of non-Jews living in Israel.
Jerusalem, perhaps the most sensitive and contentious of all permanent status issues, would remain undivided and under permanent Israeli sovereignty. Palestinians would be allowed to set up a capital near (but notably not in) the city of Jerusalem, which “could be named Al-Quds or another name as determined by the State of Palestine.”
The plan also takes the issue of Palestinian refugees, including those who fled or were driven from their homes during Israel’s creation in 1948 and their descendants, off the table. While previous peace negotiations—including the Clinton Parameters of 2000 and the Annapolis negotiations of 2007-2008—provided for at least a symbolic return of some refugees, the Trump plan states rather explicitly that there would be “no right of return by, or absorption of, any Palestinian refugee into the State of Israel.” Instead, Palestinian refugees would choose integration in their current host countries, resettlement in third countries, or absorption in the newly created Palestinian entity.
The chances that Palestinians would agree to negotiate on the basis of the Trump vision are nil. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas angrily dismissed the plan as a “conspiracy” that would eventually be relegated to the “the dustbin of history” while threatening to take the matter to the International Court of Justice.
The plan may well have been designed to elicit a Palestinian “no,” which could then be used as pretext for Israeli annexation. Indeed, within hours of the plan’s unveiling, Netanyahu announced that the process of extending Israeli sovereignty to areas not allocated to the Palestinian entity would be taken up by the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, within a matter of days. Trump’s ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, was quick to offer unqualified support for any such annexation.
This is certainly not the first U.S.-sponsored initiative to be heavily weighted in Israel’s favor—though perhaps none in the past has been biased quite as brazenly as this one. However, previous administrations had at least paid lip service to basic international norms and principles, namely by calling for an end to Israel’s occupation and insisting on at least a theoretical right to self-determination for Palestinians.
By contrast, Trump has systematically and explicitly done away with all of the basic principles that have undergirded the peace process for more than half a century and that have been the primary incentive for Palestinians to engage in a diplomatic process with its far more powerful adversary, Israel.
This discarding of precedents and principles began with the December 2017 decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, overturning 70 years of U.S. policy and defying a long-standing international consensus, followed by a decision to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and finally U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s declaration that Israeli settlements would effectively no longer be considered illegal.
Whether the Trump plan gains traction will depend on how it is received by key political actors internationally and at home. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, eager to please the Trump administration, have already made positive statements about the plan, as has U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other world leaders, though it remains unclear whether Arab and European leaders will be prepared to go beyond diplomatic pleasantries and actively embrace the Trump vision. Already, several congressional Democrats and Democratic presidential candidates, as well as various pro-peace groups, have publicly called out the Trump plan as a farce.
Some observers will find it tempting to seize on the plan’s apparent advocacy of a two-state solution or argue that regional leaders should give the plan a chance or at least try to build on some of its positive elements. But to do so, whether out of naivete, indifference, or fecklessness, would only allow the virus of Trump’s plan to infect the region’s diplomatic ecosystem while crashing any prospect of peace based on a genuine two-state solution.
The real threat to peace is not whether the Trump plan will fail but whether it will succeed. As with a Trojan horse virus, the surest way to avoid infection is to never accept the program in the first place.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-03--Health Experts Say Wuhan Virus Could Be Pandemic

Health Experts Say Wuhan Virus Could Be Pandemic Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Health experts say the Wuhan virus seems likely to be a pandemic , Iowa holds the first contest of the 2020 U.S. primary season , and what to watch in the world this week .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
As cases of the Wuhan coronavirus spread beyond China , global health experts say that the disease seems likely to be a pandemic—meaning an epidemic that exists on two or more continents at once .
The Philippines reported the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend : a 44-year-old man who had traveled from Wuhan , where the outbreak began .
As of Monday , Chinese officials had confirmed 17,205 cases of the virus and 361 deaths .
It ’ s still uncertain how much global damage the Wuhan virus will cause , the New York Times reports : Scientists aren ’ t yet sure how exactly how lethal it is , though it is becoming clear that it is easily transmitted from human to human .
As more details about the new virus emerge , experts say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , particularly if it ’ s transmitted by people showing few symptoms .
The virus has already appeared in around two dozen countries .
Travel restrictions .
Many international airlines have suspended flights to mainland China , and anti-Chinese sentiment is rising along with fear of the virus .
On Sunday , the United States issued new rules that will bar entry to almost all foreign passengers who have been in China over the last two weeks .
Countries are still evacuating citizens from Wuhan via chartered flights and taking them into quarantine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ straining China ’ s health resources , particularly at the center of the outbreak in Wuhan .
A new hospital in the city—constructed in just eight days—was due to open today , with 1,400 military medical staff arriving to run it .
The current crisis presents a serious threat to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party—and particularly local party leaders , Taisu Zhang writes in FP ( co-published with ChinaFile ) .
Iowa voters take first steps in the 2020 U.S. election .
Democrats in Iowa will gather today to vote in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record high turnout expected this year .
Because it is the first contest , the Iowa caucuses can have a disproportionate effect on the rest of the primary season .
There are five candidates considered competitive in Iowa : Sen. Bernie Sanders ; former Vice President Joe Biden ; Mayor Pete Buttigieg ; Sen. Elizabeth Warren ; and Sen. Amy Klobuchar .
Though the release of the final Des Moines Register/CNN opinion poll was called off , tonight ’ s outcome is likely to be close .
London police shoot and kill terror @ @ @ @ @ @ @ London shot and killed a man who stabbed two people on a busy street in broad daylight in what authorities described as a terrorist incident .
Police said that the man had strapped a fake explosive device to his body and witnesses said he carried out the attack with a machete .
Later , reports emerged that the suspect was already under police surveillance and had been released from prison last month after serving time for terrorism-related offenses .
Prime Minister Boris Johnson will make remarks today in which he is expected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postpones West Bank annexation vote .
On Sunday , Israel ’ s cabinet was expected to approve a plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank , but the meeting didn ’ t happen .
After the White House revealed its long-awaited Middle East peace plan last week , the Trump administration urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push back plans for annexation until after Israel ’ s elections on March 2 .
Some of Netanyahu ’ s allies fear the delay could cost them votes .
Palestinians , meanwhile , feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the peace plan , Dalia Hatuqa reports for FP from Abu Dis in the West Bank .
French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day visit to Poland today , seeking to strengthen ties with the country just days after Britain left the European Union .
Macron has criticized Poland ’ s ruling Law and Justice ( PiS ) party and its plans to bring the judiciary further under its control .
In Warsaw , he will attempt to rebuild the relationship with proposals for new investment and military partnerships .
U.S. President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Wednesday in the U.S. Senate , with his acquittal almost certain .
After declining to allow new witnesses , the Republican-held chamber is expected to vote for acquittal on the grounds that Trump ’ s actions to pressure Ukraine to investigate a Democratic rival do not warrant his removal from office , highlighting a growing partisan divide and likely distracting from the results of the Iowa caucus on Monday .
Ireland holds parliamentary elections on Saturday , after Prime Minister Leo Varadkar called the vote in mid-January .
Over the weekend , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fein pulling ahead of Varadkar ’ s Fine Gael party—setting up the potential for political deadlock .
Iraq ’ s new prime minister .
Iraqi President Barham Salih appointed a new prime minister , Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi , over the weekend in attempt to end months of unrest .
Thousands turned out in Baghdad on Sunday to protest the move , though they were cleared out by security forces and followers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr .
Iran has endorsed the appointment of Allawi , who has a month to form a government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The worst plague of locusts in 70 years is devastating crops in Kenya , Somalia , and Ethiopia after unusually heavy rains .
Somalia has declared a national emergency and Kenya is spraying pesticides to stop the locusts from spreading further .
Experts warn that the outbreak could multiply by 50 times by June if not brought under control .
In India , a local music streaming service is beating out Spotify and Apple Music in the domestic market , the Wall Street Journal reports .
Gaana ( Hindi for “ song @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It features more than 45 million songs—mostly from India and in a number of regional languages , giving it an edge over the major international services .
In Mexico , a boom in avocado exports has attracted the attention of criminal gangs .
The avocado industry brings in $ 2 billion per year for the Mexican economy and its newfound popularity with criminals is linked to the U.S. opioid crisis .
“ Americans ’ increased use of fentanyl , a synthetic opioid used for pain relief , pushed down the price of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ price of Mexican opium , ” according to the Financial Times , forcing gangs to diversify .
Experts warn that the avocado trade is starting to resemble that of conflict minerals in Africa .
“ So dangerous has the avocado business become that several municipalities have armed private security guards to protect towns , ” the FT reports .
For more news and analysis on stories like this , sign up for South Asia Brief , delivered on Tuesdays .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Health experts say the Wuhan virus seems likely to be a pandemic, Iowa holds the first contest of the 2020 U.S. primary season , and what to watch in the world this week .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Health experts say the Wuhan virus seems likely to be a pandemic, Iowa holds the first contest of the 2020 U.S. primary season, and what to watch in the world this week.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
The Wuhan Virus Seems Like a Pandemic
As cases of the Wuhan coronavirus spread beyond China, global health experts say that the disease seems likely to be a pandemic—meaning an epidemic that exists on two or more continents at once. The Philippines reported the first death outside of China over the weekend: a 44-year-old man who had traveled from Wuhan, where the outbreak began. As of Monday, Chinese officials had confirmed 17,205 cases of the virus and 361 deaths.
It’s still uncertain how much global damage the Wuhan virus will cause, the New York Times reports: Scientists aren’t yet sure how exactly how lethal it is, though it is becoming clear that it is easily transmitted from human to human. As more details about the new virus emerge, experts say the outbreak could be difficult to control, particularly if it’s transmitted by people showing few symptoms. The virus has already appeared in around two dozen countries.
Travel restrictions. Many international airlines have suspended flights to mainland China, and anti-Chinese sentiment is rising along with fear of the virus. On Sunday, the United States issued new rules that will bar entry to almost all foreign passengers who have been in China over the last two weeks. Countries are still evacuating citizens from Wuhan via chartered flights and taking them into quarantine.
Inside China. The coronavirus is straining China’s health resources, particularly at the center of the outbreak in Wuhan. A new hospital in the city—constructed in just eight days—was due to open today, with 1,400 military medical staff arriving to run it. The current crisis presents a serious threat to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party—and particularly local party leaders, Taisu Zhang writes in FP (co-published with ChinaFile).
What We’re Following Today
Iowa voters take first steps in the 2020 U.S. election. Democrats in Iowa will gather today to vote in the state’s caucuses, with record high turnout expected this year. Because it is the first contest, the Iowa caucuses can have a disproportionate effect on the rest of the primary season. There are five candidates considered competitive in Iowa: Sen. Bernie Sanders; former Vice President Joe Biden; Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Sen. Elizabeth Warren; and Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Though the release of the final Des Moines Register/CNN opinion poll was called off, tonight’s outcome is likely to be close.
London police shoot and kill terror suspect. On Sunday, police in London shot and killed a man who stabbed two people on a busy street in broad daylight in what authorities described as a terrorist incident. Police said that the man had strapped a fake explosive device to his body and witnesses said he carried out the attack with a machete. Later, reports emerged that the suspect was already under police surveillance and had been released from prison last month after serving time for terrorism-related offenses. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will make remarks today in which he is expected to propose reforms to the system.
Israel postpones West Bank annexation vote. On Sunday, Israel’s cabinet was expected to approve a plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, but the meeting didn’t happen. After the White House revealed its long-awaited Middle East peace plan last week, the Trump administration urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push back plans for annexation until after Israel’s elections on March 2. Some of Netanyahu’s allies fear the delay could cost them votes. Palestinians, meanwhile, feel that their worst fears have been confirmed by the peace plan, Dalia Hatuqa reports for FP from Abu Dis in the West Bank.
The World This Week
French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day visit to Poland today, seeking to strengthen ties with the country just days after Britain left the European Union. Macron has criticized Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and its plans to bring the judiciary further under its control. In Warsaw, he will attempt to rebuild the relationship with proposals for new investment and military partnerships.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial concludes on Wednesday in the U.S. Senate, with his acquittal almost certain. After declining to allow new witnesses, the Republican-held chamber is expected to vote for acquittal on the grounds that Trump’s actions to pressure Ukraine to investigate a Democratic rival do not warrant his removal from office, highlighting a growing partisan divide and likely distracting from the results of the Iowa caucus on Monday.
Ireland holds parliamentary elections on Saturday, after Prime Minister Leo Varadkar called the vote in mid-January. Over the weekend, polls showed the Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein pulling ahead of Varadkar’s Fine Gael party—setting up the potential for political deadlock.
Keep an Eye On
Iraq’s new prime minister. Iraqi President Barham Salih appointed a new prime minister, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi, over the weekend in attempt to end months of unrest. Thousands turned out in Baghdad on Sunday to protest the move, though they were cleared out by security forces and followers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Iran has endorsed the appointment of Allawi, who has a month to form a government.
A locust plague in East Africa. The worst plague of locusts in 70 years is devastating crops in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia after unusually heavy rains. Somalia has declared a national emergency and Kenya is spraying pesticides to stop the locusts from spreading further. Experts warn that the outbreak could multiply by 50 times by June if not brought under control.
Odds and Ends
In India, a local music streaming service is beating out Spotify and Apple Music in the domestic market, the Wall Street Journal reports. Gaana (Hindi for “song”) has 152 million monthly users. It features more than 45 million songs—mostly from India and in a number of regional languages, giving it an edge over the major international services.
In Mexico, a boom in avocado exports has attracted the attention of criminal gangs. The avocado industry brings in $2 billion per year for the Mexican economy and its newfound popularity with criminals is linked to the U.S. opioid crisis. “Americans’ increased use of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid used for pain relief, pushed down the price of heroin, which in turn slashed the price of Mexican opium,” according to the Financial Times, forcing gangs to diversify. Experts warn that the avocado trade is starting to resemble that of conflict minerals in Africa. “So dangerous has the avocado business become that several municipalities have armed private security guards to protect towns,” the FT reports.
For more news and analysis on stories like this, sign up for South Asia Brief, delivered on Tuesdays.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-01--Our Top Weekend Reads

Our Top Weekend Reads

The Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread outside of China , highlighting the potential adverse effects of the Belt and Road Initiative .
But researchers are working toward building a tentative clinical profile of the virus in order to keep it from spreading further .
Rather than being concerned about the germs and their spread , however , Beijing seems mostly motivated by a desire to manage the public ’ s reaction to the disease , a fact that leaves much to be concerned about .
Meanwhile , U.S. President Donald Trump released his much-awaited Middle East peace plan , detailing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And now that the United Kingdom has officially departed from the European Union , the calls for Scottish independence will intensify .
A conspiracy theory made rounds on the internet claiming that the coronavirus started as a result of supposedly “ dirty ” Chinese eating habits , but the true cause of the outbreak probably has more to do with unsafe food regulations , Foreign Policy ’ s James Palmer writes .
2 .
Why Trump Will Get Off Trump ’ s lawyers are effectively arguing that the president ’ s propensity for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest is not impeachable because Trump ’ s reelection itself is in the public interest , Foreign Policy ’ s Michael Hirsh writes .
Beyond a thin veneer of acceptability , Trump ’ s Middle East peace plan is designed to do away with a genuine two-state solution while normalizing permanent Israeli occupation and annexation within a de facto one-state reality , Khaled Elgindy writes .
4 .
A New Scottish Independence Vote Seems All but Inevitable Spurred by widespread Scottish opposition to leaving the European Union and a fresh electoral mandate from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party plans to intensify its campaign for independence in the coming months , Jamie Maxwell reports .
Belarus is often held up as the most pro-Russian of the post-Soviet states , but as unification talks with Russia intensify , Belarusians are beginning to discover their own national identity , Tomasz Grzywaczewski writes .

The Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread outside of China, highlighting the potential adverse effects of the Belt and Road Initiative .
The Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread outside of China, highlighting the potential adverse effects of the Belt and Road Initiative.
But researchers are working toward building a tentative clinical profile of the virus in order to keep it from spreading further.
Rather than being concerned about the germs and their spread, however, Beijing seems mostly motivated by a desire to manage the public’s reaction to the disease, a fact that leaves much to be concerned about.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump released his much-awaited Middle East peace plan, detailing a settlement that heavily favors Israel.
And now that the United Kingdom has officially departed from the European Union, the calls for Scottish independence will intensify.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top weekend reads.
A vendor (C) wearing a facemask offers meat at a near-empty market on the eve of the Lunar New Year in Wuhan on January 24, 2020.
A conspiracy theory made rounds on the internet claiming that the coronavirus started as a result of supposedly “dirty” Chinese eating habits, but the true cause of the outbreak probably has more to do with unsafe food regulations, Foreign Policy’s James Palmer writes.
U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he arrives at the White House on January 22, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Trump’s lawyers are effectively arguing that the president’s propensity for blending his personal interest with the national interest is not impeachable because Trump’s reelection itself is in the public interest, Foreign Policy’s Michael Hirsh writes.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a joint statement in the East Room of the White House.
Beyond a thin veneer of acceptability, Trump’s Middle East peace plan is designed to do away with a genuine two-state solution while normalizing permanent Israeli occupation and annexation within a de facto one-state reality, Khaled Elgindy writes.
Protesters take part in a pro-independence march on Jan. 11 in Glasgow, Scotland.
Spurred by widespread Scottish opposition to leaving the European Union and a fresh electoral mandate from the Scottish public, the Scottish National Party plans to intensify its campaign for independence in the coming months, Jamie Maxwell reports.
People carry a giant Belarusian historical white-red-white flag during a rally against a Belarusian-Russian integration project in Minsk on Dec. 7, 2019.
Belarus is often held up as the most pro-Russian of the post-Soviet states, but as unification talks with Russia intensify, Belarusians are beginning to discover their own national identity, Tomasz Grzywaczewski writes.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-31--U.N. Faults Iraq for Islamic State Prosecutions

In September 2017 , the Lebanese British jurist Amal Clooney ; Alistair Burt , then-British minister of state for the Middle East ; and Nadia Murad , the Yazidi Nobel Peace Prize laureate and victim of Islamic State terrorism in Iraq , visited U.N. headquarters to witness a milestone in their joint effort to hold the terrorist organization accountable for its crimes .
The U.N. Security Council , at the bidding of Britain ’ s then-foreign secretary , Boris Johnson , voted to pass Resolution 2379 , which established an investigative team , led by a special advisor to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Iraqi courts to the hold the Islamic State , also known as ISIL , “ accountable by collecting , preserving , and storing evidence in Iraq of acts that may amount to war crimes , crimes against humanity and genocide.
” The high-minded undertaking had troubled some U.N. officials , who feared that the team lacked sufficient legal authority to require that Iraq ’ s prosecutors and judges abide by international legal standards of due process and fairness .
At the heart of their concerns was a pair of Iraqi anti-terrorism laws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standards and included the enforcement of a mandatory death penalty for “ a wide range of acts that do not meet the ‘ most serious crimes ’ threshold , ” which is defined as murder .
Their fears have been born out in a report by the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq—which we are highlighting as this week ’ s Document of the Week .
The document includes responses from the Iraqi government and Kurdistan ’ s regional government .
The 16-page report—which is based on an examination of 619 terrorism hearings—registered “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were not respected in terrorism trials.
” It found that defendants were generally assigned “ ineffective legal representation , ” had insufficient time to prepare their defense , and were unable to cross-examine key witnesses , who often testified anonymously against alleged terrorists and their supporters .
Judges , meanwhile , relied excessively on confessions , despite frequent allegations that defendants were subjected to torture to obtain them .
Perhaps the most troubling element in Iraq ’ s terrorism laws was the “ overly broad and vague definition ” of a terrorist offense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be tried , and even sentenced to death , for simply joining a terrorist organization , even if there was no evidence that the individual was guilty of a crime or an act of violence .
Iraq charged individuals , including wives and children of suspect terrorists , of “ providing basic support to ISIL members , such as cooking or selling vegetables.
” The prosecutions have failed to sufficiently distinguish “ between those who participated in violence and those who joined ISIL for survival and/or through coercion , and with harsh penalties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ culpability , ” according to the report .
The U.N. observed two hearings at which the courts sentenced defendants for providing medical services to Islamic State fighters , including a pharmacist in Mosul who received a life sentence for providing medical services to wounded Islamic State fighters .
In February 2018 , the U.N. and Iraq negotiated terms of reference that preclude the special advisor , Karim Khan , from sharing evidence with the court unless he can establish the trial is fair .
The agreement does not address whether the U.N. would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but a diplomatic source told Foreign Policy that Khan has made clear in his contract with the U.N. that he will not supply the courts with evidence if the death penalty is being considered .
So far , Khan ’ s team has not shared any information with the courts .
In response , the Iraqi Foreign Ministry wrote in a letter that the courts have observed “ the highest norms of justice and transparency ” and extended “ all legal guarantees ” to defendants .
“ [ W ] e find that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not fully convey the truth with respect to the size of accomplishment ” that Iraq has achieved in prosecuting such a large terrorist population .

In September 2017, the Lebanese British jurist Amal Clooney; Alistair Burt, then-British minister of state for the Middle East; and Nadia Murad, the Yazidi Nobel Peace Prize laureate and victim of Islamic State terrorism in Iraq, visited U.N. headquarters to witness a milestone in their joint effort to hold the terrorist organization accountable for its crimes.
In September 2017, the Lebanese British jurist Amal Clooney; Alistair Burt, then-British minister of state for the Middle East; and Nadia Murad, the Yazidi Nobel Peace Prize laureate and victim of Islamic State terrorism in Iraq, visited U.N. headquarters to witness a milestone in their joint effort to hold the terrorist organization accountable for its crimes.
The U.N. Security Council, at the bidding of Britain’s then-foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, voted to pass Resolution 2379, which established an investigative team, led by a special advisor to the U.N. secretary-general, to support efforts by the Iraqi courts to the hold the Islamic State, also known as ISIL, “accountable by collecting, preserving, and storing evidence in Iraq of acts that may amount to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.”
The high-minded undertaking had troubled some U.N. officials, who feared that the team lacked sufficient legal authority to require that Iraq’s prosecutors and judges abide by international legal standards of due process and fairness. At the heart of their concerns was a pair of Iraqi anti-terrorism laws that fell well short of international legal standards and included the enforcement of a mandatory death penalty for “a wide range of acts that do not meet the ‘most serious crimes’ threshold,” which is defined as murder.
Their fears have been born out in a report by the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq—which we are highlighting as this week’s Document of the Week. The document includes responses from the Iraqi government and Kurdistan’s regional government.
The 16-page report—which is based on an examination of 619 terrorism hearings—registered “serious concerns that basic fair trial standards were not respected in terrorism trials.” It found that defendants were generally assigned “ineffective legal representation,” had insufficient time to prepare their defense, and were unable to cross-examine key witnesses, who often testified anonymously against alleged terrorists and their supporters.
Judges, meanwhile, relied excessively on confessions, despite frequent allegations that defendants were subjected to torture to obtain them. Perhaps the most troubling element in Iraq’s terrorism laws was the “overly broad and vague definition” of a terrorist offense.
For instance, a defendant could be tried, and even sentenced to death, for simply joining a terrorist organization, even if there was no evidence that the individual was guilty of a crime or an act of violence. Iraq charged individuals, including wives and children of suspect terrorists, of “providing basic support to ISIL members, such as cooking or selling vegetables.”
The prosecutions have failed to sufficiently distinguish “between those who participated in violence and those who joined ISIL for survival and/or through coercion, and with harsh penalties that failed to distinguish degrees of underlying culpability,” according to the report.
The U.N. observed two hearings at which the courts sentenced defendants for providing medical services to Islamic State fighters, including a pharmacist in Mosul who received a life sentence for providing medical services to wounded Islamic State fighters.
In February 2018, the U.N. and Iraq negotiated terms of reference that preclude the special advisor, Karim Khan, from sharing evidence with the court unless he can establish the trial is fair. The agreement does not address whether the U.N. would cooperate in a death penalty trial, but a diplomatic source told Foreign Policy that Khan has made clear in his contract with the U.N. that he will not supply the courts with evidence if the death penalty is being considered. So far, Khan’s team has not shared any information with the courts.
In response, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry wrote in a letter that the courts have observed “the highest norms of justice and transparency” and extended “all legal guarantees” to defendants. “[W]e find that the signals in the said UN report do not fully convey the truth with respect to the size of accomplishment” that Iraq has achieved in prosecuting such a large terrorist population.