foreignpolicy--2020-08-13--Israel and the UAE Strike ‘Historic’ Deal to Normalize Relations

Israel and the UAE Strike ‘ Historic ’ Deal to Normalize Relations Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s Security Brief .
What ’ s on tap : Israel and the United Arab Emirates normalize relations , U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is on the ropes , and an Islamic State-linked group is on the rise in Mozambique .
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
On Thursday , Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to fully normalize relations—a historic step for Israel ’ s limited diplomatic ties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lengthy statement , U.S. President Donald Trump called the agreement a “ historic diplomatic breakthrough ” and also , significantly , appeared to indicate that Israel would halt its planned annexation of parts of the West Bank .
“ As a result of this diplomatic breakthrough … Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in [ Trump ’ s peace plan ] and focus its efforts now on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world , ” the statement read .
With the announcement , three Arab countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peace treaty in 1979 , followed by Jordan in 1994 .
“ The United States hopes that this brave step will be the first in a series of agreements that ends 72 years of hostilities in the region , ” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement .
“ Today ’ s normalization agreement between Israel and the Emirates holds similar potential and the promise for a better day for the entire region.
” The enemy of my enemy .
The historic move reflects the Trump administration ’ s personally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries , including the UAE .
But it also illustrates the shared fear of Israel and the UAE over Iran ’ s activities in the region .
In a rare show of unity , all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council—Bahrain , Kuwait , Oman , Qatar , the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—issued a statement this week urging the United Nations to extend an international arms embargo on Iran .
Head fake ?
Immediately after the announcement , some Israeli officials suggested that the halt to planned West Bank annexations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rapprochement with the UAE .
In the wake of the Trump administration ’ s so-called peace plan , Israel announced that it would move forward with annexing portions of the West Bank by July , but it stalled the plans under mounting international pressure .
Despite the hopeful statements from senior Trump officials , it ’ s unclear whether other Arab countries , particularly Saudi Arabia , would follow suit and normalize ties with Israel .
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has kept a low profile since bucking the White House over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quell protests against police brutality in June .
He has visited a stealth bomber base in Missouri and put in place a policy to quietly ban Confederate flags from U.S. military installations .
But Esper ’ s efforts to avoid the limelight—a reversal from his usual practice of holding regular briefings—haven ’ t shielded him from Trump ’ s ire .
On Wednesday , Bloomberg News revealed that Trump is privately telling aides he plans to replace his Pentagon chief after the November elections over frustrations that Esper hasn ’ t done enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues , including the alleged Russian bounties paid to the Taliban to kill U.S. soldiers that Trump has dismissed as “ fake news.
” Eyeing the exit .
Esper , for his part , may also be looking for an exit from the job as the elections near .
He has seen his influence over personnel changes reduced as Trump and the White House Presidential Personnel Office have foisted a series of controversial loyalists into top Pentagon jobs .
Bloomberg reported that Esper has said he ’ s looking to leave regardless of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no word yet on who might take Esper ’ s place , but some speculation has centered around former Army Brig .
Gen. Anthony Tata , who abandoned a bid to become the Pentagon ’ s policy chief after controversial anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant tweets derailed his nomination .
The Wall Street Journal reported that officials worry that Tata—appointed to deputy policy chief without Senate confirmation—could be brought in as acting Pentagon chief if Esper is removed .
Beirut blast fallout .
The State Department ’ s third-ranking official , David Hale , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caretaker government following the explosion that destroyed Beirut ’ s port and revived anti-government protests .
The fallout from the blast is likely to hit Lebanon ’ s large refugee population the hardest .
Given the Beirut port ’ s role as a hub for aid supply routes to Syria , the United Nations and humanitarian groups are scrambling to find alternatives .
Hale said that the FBI will take part in the Lebanese-led probe into the blast .
ISIS-linked group gains ground in Mozambique .
Militants who say they are aligned with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a key port city in Mozambique .
The fight over Mocimboa da Praia is a significant military defeat for the government .
The port is situated near natural gas projects worth an estimated $ 60 billion .
“ The question now is whether the rebels will—as they have hinted—try to hold on to this strategic city .
That would mark a new escalation , ” BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding writes .
Envoy to ‘ Europe ’ s last dictatorship.
’ After years of careful diplomacy , the Trump administration was poised to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than a decade .
But now a leading Democratic lawmaker has threatened to block the nomination of a seasoned career diplomat for the post amid Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko ’ s violent crackdown on protests .
Not all lawmakers are on board , with some believing an ambassador is needed now more than ever , FP ’ s Robbie Gramer and Amy MacKinnon report .
The veepstakes are over .
After months of anticipation , presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden picked California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate .
Catch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ views from her time in the Senate and on the campaign trail as a presidential hopeful in the Democratic primaries here .
Spaced out .
The Defense Department is losing its top policy official for space .
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Space Policy Stephen Kitay submitted his resignation on Friday , CNN first reported .
The role does not require Senate confirmation .
Cohen up .
The Pentagon has a new temporary civilian leader for special operations .
Ezra Cohen , a former National Security Council staffer , has been moved up to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for special operations and low intensity conflict , Task and Purpose first reported .
Former Navy SEAL Lou Bremer has been nominated to fill the job full-time , though he had a rocky Senate hearing last week where lawmakers raised concerns about his links to the far-right commentator Milo Yiannopoulos and a security firm that trained Saudis connected to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi .
Revolving door .
Mike Griffin , the Trump administration ’ s former undersecretary of defense for research and engineering , joined the board of the small aero-defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month after leaving the Pentagon , C4ISRNet reports .
Congress secretly halts Turkey arms sales .
The U.S.-Turkey relationship is worse than you think .
For the past two years , Congress has quietly frozen all major U.S. arms sales to its erstwhile NATO ally in a bid to get Ankara to give up its Russian S-400 air defense system , Defense News reports .
Among the frozen deals are structural upgrades for F-16s and licenses to export U.S.-made engines that will allow Turkey to sell attack helicopters to Pakistan .
Unboxing rebellion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scoop from China ’ s state propaganda rag : “ The U.S. has brutally unpacked a container with 60 pieces of furniture ( official supplies ) ordered by the Chinese delegation to the United Nations and dismantled the wrappings of 12 pieces , the Global Times learned.
” Let ’ s hope there aren ’ t anymore armoire casualties in the new Cold War .
Graphic design is the Pentagon ’ s passion .
The Pentagon-led effort to develop a new coronavirus vaccine dubbed Operation Warp Speed has a new logo , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected .
Check it out for yourself .
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will speak on American foreign policy issues in a virtual event at the Atlantic Council on Monday , Aug. 17 .
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi will visit the White House to meet with Trump on Thursday , Aug. 20 .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or typos to securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief. What’s on tap: Israel and the United Arab Emirates normalize relations, U .S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is on the ropes , and an Islamic State-linked group is on the rise in Mozambique.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief. What’s on tap: Israel and the United Arab Emirates normalize relations, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is on the ropes, and an Islamic State-linked group is on the rise in Mozambique.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
A Diplomatic Breakthrough
On Thursday, Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to fully normalize relations—a historic step for Israel’s limited diplomatic ties with the Arab world. In a lengthy statement, U.S. President Donald Trump called the agreement a “historic diplomatic breakthrough” and also, significantly, appeared to indicate that Israel would halt its planned annexation of parts of the West Bank.
“As a result of this diplomatic breakthrough … Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in [Trump’s peace plan] and focus its efforts now on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world,” the statement read. With the announcement, three Arab countries now recognize Israel. Egypt signed a peace treaty in 1979, followed by Jordan in 1994.
“The United States hopes that this brave step will be the first in a series of agreements that ends 72 years of hostilities in the region,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. “Today’s normalization agreement between Israel and the Emirates holds similar potential and the promise for a better day for the entire region.”
The enemy of my enemy. The historic move reflects the Trump administration’s personally engaged diplomacy with Israel and with Arab countries, including the UAE. But it also illustrates the shared fear of Israel and the UAE over Iran’s activities in the region. In a rare show of unity, all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—issued a statement this week urging the United Nations to extend an international arms embargo on Iran.
Head fake? Immediately after the announcement, some Israeli officials suggested that the halt to planned West Bank annexations could be a temporary measure to ink the rapprochement with the UAE. In the wake of the Trump administration’s so-called peace plan, Israel announced that it would move forward with annexing portions of the West Bank by July, but it stalled the plans under mounting international pressure.
Despite the hopeful statements from senior Trump officials, it’s unclear whether other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, would follow suit and normalize ties with Israel.
(D)Esperate Times
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has kept a low profile since bucking the White House over the use of active duty troops to quell protests against police brutality in June. He has visited a stealth bomber base in Missouri and put in place a policy to quietly ban Confederate flags from U.S. military installations.
But Esper’s efforts to avoid the limelight—a reversal from his usual practice of holding regular briefings—haven’t shielded him from Trump’s ire.
On Wednesday, Bloomberg News revealed that Trump is privately telling aides he plans to replace his Pentagon chief after the November elections over frustrations that Esper hasn’t done enough to defend the White House on key issues, including the alleged Russian bounties paid to the Taliban to kill U.S. soldiers that Trump has dismissed as “fake news.”
Eyeing the exit. Esper, for his part, may also be looking for an exit from the job as the elections near. He has seen his influence over personnel changes reduced as Trump and the White House Presidential Personnel Office have foisted a series of controversial loyalists into top Pentagon jobs. Bloomberg reported that Esper has said he’s looking to leave regardless of the outcome in November.
There is no word yet on who might take Esper’s place, but some speculation has centered around former Army Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, who abandoned a bid to become the Pentagon’s policy chief after controversial anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant tweets derailed his nomination. The Wall Street Journal reported that officials worry that Tata—appointed to deputy policy chief without Senate confirmation—could be brought in as acting Pentagon chief if Esper is removed.
What We’re Watching
Beirut blast fallout. The State Department’s third-ranking official, David Hale, has landed in Lebanon for meetings with the caretaker government following the explosion that destroyed Beirut’s port and revived anti-government protests. The fallout from the blast is likely to hit Lebanon’s large refugee population the hardest. Given the Beirut port’s role as a hub for aid supply routes to Syria, the United Nations and humanitarian groups are scrambling to find alternatives. Hale said that the FBI will take part in the Lebanese-led probe into the blast.
ISIS-linked group gains ground in Mozambique. Militants who say they are aligned with the Islamic State have taken control of a key port city in Mozambique. The fight over Mocimboa da Praia is a significant military defeat for the government. The port is situated near natural gas projects worth an estimated $60 billion.
“The question now is whether the rebels will—as they have hinted—try to hold on to this strategic city. That would mark a new escalation,” BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding writes.
Movers and Shakers
Envoy to ‘Europe’s last dictatorship.’ After years of careful diplomacy, the Trump administration was poised to send its first ambassador to Belarus in more than a decade. But now a leading Democratic lawmaker has threatened to block the nomination of a seasoned career diplomat for the post amid Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s violent crackdown on protests.
Not all lawmakers are on board, with some believing an ambassador is needed now more than ever, FP’s Robbie Gramer and Amy MacKinnon report.
The veepstakes are over. After months of anticipation, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden picked California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. Catch up on Harris’s foreign policy views from her time in the Senate and on the campaign trail as a presidential hopeful in the Democratic primaries here.
Spaced out. The Defense Department is losing its top policy official for space. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Space Policy Stephen Kitay submitted his resignation on Friday, CNN first reported. The role does not require Senate confirmation.
Cohen up. The Pentagon has a new temporary civilian leader for special operations. Ezra Cohen, a former National Security Council staffer, has been moved up to perform the duties of the assistant secretary for special operations and low intensity conflict, Task and Purpose first reported.
Former Navy SEAL Lou Bremer has been nominated to fill the job full-time, though he had a rocky Senate hearing last week where lawmakers raised concerns about his links to the far-right commentator Milo Yiannopoulos and a security firm that trained Saudis connected to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Revolving door. Mike Griffin, the Trump administration’s former undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, joined the board of the small aero-defense company Rocket Lab, less than a month after leaving the Pentagon, C4ISRNet reports.
Foreign Policy Recommends
Congress secretly halts Turkey arms sales. The U.S.-Turkey relationship is worse than you think. For the past two years, Congress has quietly frozen all major U.S. arms sales to its erstwhile NATO ally in a bid to get Ankara to give up its Russian S-400 air defense system, Defense News reports. Among the frozen deals are structural upgrades for F-16s and licenses to export U.S.-made engines that will allow Turkey to sell attack helicopters to Pakistan.
Odds and Ends
Unboxing rebellion. In case you missed this bombshell scoop from China’s state propaganda rag: “The U.S. has brutally unpacked a container with 60 pieces of furniture (official supplies) ordered by the Chinese delegation to the United Nations and dismantled the wrappings of 12 pieces, the Global Times learned.” Let’s hope there aren’t anymore armoire casualties in the new Cold War.
Graphic design is the Pentagon’s passion. The Pentagon-led effort to develop a new coronavirus vaccine dubbed Operation Warp Speed has a new logo, and it’s… not quite what we expected. Check it out for yourself.
The Week Ahead
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will speak on American foreign policy issues in a virtual event at the Atlantic Council on Monday, Aug. 17.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi will visit the White House to meet with Trump on Thursday, Aug. 20.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-13--The Dangerous Illusion of Japan’s Unconditional Surrender

Shortly before dawn on Aug. 15 , 1945 , a national broadcast alerted Japanese to expect a message from the emperor later that day .
Across Japan , people waited in uncertainty to hear for the first time “ the jeweled voice.
” Most expected that the emperor would urge them on to fight to the end .
What they heard was a high-pitched voice speaking in archaic Japanese that many could not comprehend .
It was only after a commentator explained that the emperor had agreed to surrender that they knew for certain that the war was over .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ celebrations began immediately .
But the formal ceremony ending the war had to wait until Sunday , Sept. 2 , 1945 , when Japan ’ s official defeat was staged on the USS Missouri .
The document signed by the representatives of the Allied Powers and Japan declared the unconditional surrender of the Imperial General Headquarters and all the armed forces under Japanese control .
It also made the authority of the emperor and the Japanese government subject to U.S. General Douglas MacArthur ’ s orders and commanded all civil and military officers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s conclusion , MacArthur moved to a microphone and began a radio address to a world audience .
“ Today the guns are silent , ” began the now famous message .
“ A great tragedy has ended .
A great victory has been won.
” Everything that followed—the disarmament of Japan , the reform of its economic , political , and social institutions , the adoption of a new constitution , and the surrender of Japan ’ s undefeated armies in China and Southeast Asia—followed from American influence on the emperor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Japan ’ s armed forces .
With planes soaring overhead and more than 200 ships of the 3rd Fleet stretched out across the bay , America ’ s might was everywhere in evidence .
None of those present could have known that this was the last time Americans would stand as the indisputable victors in war , imposing their will on a conquered foe .
The display of military power in Tokyo Bay was intended to awe the Japanese , but it also created a misleading impression of what could be achieved by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 19th century , social and technological developments had made warfare so costly as to risk making the attainment of national objectives through military force politically unacceptable .
The mobilization of nations for modern war placed enormous pressure on the belligerents and strained even the victors to the breaking point .
When the United States went to war against Japan , American strategists hoped to escape that fate by relying primarily on naval forces to isolate the Japanese homeland and compel the enemy ’ s surrender .
The first of those objectives was achieved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fleet .
By spring 1945 , the relentless U.S. aerial assault on Japanese cities added to the enemy ’ s desperation .
Nevertheless , the Japanese government refused to yield on terms acceptable to the Americans .
The war continued .
By August 1945 , the U.S. Army found itself preparing to fight the most demanding campaigns of the Pacific War with exhausted divisions replenished by green troops .
A restive public and increasingly assertive political leaders questioned if victory , defined as Japan ’ s unconditional surrender , could be achieved at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Soviet entry into the war against Japan cut short that debate and produced swift decision where none had seemed likely .
That sudden reversal of fortunes obscured for later generations the extent to which U.S. strategy had been unhinged by Japanese resistance and the splintering of unity at home .
It also made the ceremony in Tokyo Bay seem inevitable and reproducible .
America ’ s next war appeared to follow the pattern of the Pacific War , only compressed in time and geography .
The Korean War began with a surprise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and its allies and transitioned to a buildup of resources followed by a U.N. offensive .
The breakout amphibious landing at Inchon , which recalled MacArthur ’ s bold leapfrogging operations along the northern coast of New Guinea in World War II , fed expectations of the conquest of North Korea and total victory .
The intervention of the Chinese People ’ s Liberation Army dashed those hopes and forced the United Nations into a protracted and increasingly unpopular war for limited objectives .
There would be no enemy capitulation on the deck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ceased with an uneasy truce negotiated in a tent in Panmunjom .
By the time the United States intervened directly in Vietnam , a decade of strategic analysis confirmed the uselessness of nuclear weapons in combat .
This was especially so in Asia .
In the decade after Hiroshima , American strategists had concluded that use of atomic weapons in Asia would confirm public perceptions that Americans were indifferent to the lives of the region ’ s inhabitants .
To compensate for the shortcomings in nuclear deterrence , American military thinkers advocated a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tactical airpower as the best way to produce victory at a tolerable cost .
The United States settled for a limited objective : defense of a noncommunist Vietnam .
Fearing a repeat of China ’ s intervention in Korea , officials ruled out a ground war against North Vietnam , but they incongruously adopted a military strategy that made destruction of the enemy ’ s capacity to wage war its ultimate objective .
Although the United States consistently won individual battles , victory proved even more elusive than in Korea .
Although the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between the war with Japan and the Korean and Vietnam conflicts .
One was the willingness of the enemy to suffer unimaginable losses while inflicting significant casualties on U.S. forces .
Another was that Americans , notably their business and political leaders , were unwilling to accept the strains of protracted war .
Instead of viewing those similarities as evidence of the historic tendency of warfare toward indecision , military analysts concluded that Korea and Vietnam proved only that Americans were unsuited for limited war .
The remedy was the Powell Doctrine , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chiefs of Staff in the early 1990s .
The new dispensation proclaimed there would be no more Vietnams .
The United States would only fight winnable wars .
Colin Powell put the doctrine into action in 1991 when U.S. and coalition forces liberated Kuwait from Iraqi forces .
Operation Desert Storm succeeded in driving Saddam Hussein ’ s armies back into Iraq , but once that objective was achieved , Powell , fearing a Vietnam-like quagmire if he invaded Iraq , halted the offensive .
Celebration of this feat of arms turned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ torment Americans with the incompleteness of their victory .
A decade later , the digital revolution and accompanying advances in weaponry convinced a new American leadership that they had created a revolution in military affairs .
Advocates of this new way of war believed that so-called full-spectrum dominance of the battlefield would enable the United States to achieve overwhelming victory at low cost .
The first test of the revolution in military affairs came after the terrorist attack on 9/11 , an event that conjured memories of Pearl Harbor .
Instead of responding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks , the United States embarked on an expansive global war on terrorism .
Phase one began in October 2001with Operation Enduring Freedom , the invasion of Afghanistan .
Operation Iraqi Freedom came next in March 2003 .
Both operations were envisioned as part of a larger campaign to spread democracy through the Middle East .
In October 2002 , as the George W. Bush administration contemplated the invasion of Iraq , military planners looked to the occupation of Japan as a guide for action .
Japan , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desirable model because it had remained undivided during the occupation and it proved that the United States could nurture democracy in a non-Western nation .
But Iraq was not like Japan , at least not in the ways that the administration imagined .
On April 1 , 2003 , two weeks after the start of the American invasion , Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared that the United States sought nothing short of the unconditional surrender of the Iraqi regime .
In August 2007 , Americans were still fighting in Iraq .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sought to assure Americans that the “ war on terror ” would end in a victory like the one secured by his father ’ s generation .
Speaking to the Veterans of Foreign Wars , Bush began with a parable .
His story began on “ a sunny morning , when thousands of Americans were murdered in a surprise attack and our nation was propelled into a conflict that would take us to every corner of the globe.
” “ The enemy I have just described is not al Qaeda , ” he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not 9/11 , and the empire is not the radical caliphate envisioned by Osama bin Laden .
Instead , what I ’ ve described is the war machine of Imperial Japan in the 1940s , its surprise attack on Pearl Harbor , and its attempt to impose its empire throughout East Asia.
” Dismissing critics who disparaged American efforts at spreading democracy through the Middle East , the president reminded listeners that experts had also doubted that the United States would be able to democratize Japan .
By the time the president spoke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enthusiasm for the Middle East crusade .
Like their predecessors had during the summer of 1945 , they looked past the raging conflict and toward domestic pursuits .
For most Americans , the price of total victory in the Middle East had exceeded its value .
As Americans commemorate the 75th anniversary of the end of the war with Japan , they would do well to remember that it took two atomic bombs and Soviet entry into the war to compel Japan ’ s unconditional surrender .
A great victory was won .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ moment , the United States had broken free of history and escaped the fate of other nations that struggled to achieve victory at an acceptable cost to its citizens .
That moment has never since returned—nor should we expect it to .

Shortly before dawn on Aug. 15, 1945, a national broadcast alerted Japanese to expect a message from the emperor later that day. Across Japan, people waited in uncertainty to hear for the first time “the jeweled voice.” Most expected that the emperor would urge them on to fight to the end. What they heard was a high-pitched voice speaking in archaic Japanese that many could not comprehend. It was only after a commentator explained that the emperor had agreed to surrender that they knew for certain that the war was over.
Shortly before dawn on Aug. 15, 1945, a national broadcast alerted Japanese to expect a message from the emperor later that day. Across Japan, people waited in uncertainty to hear for the first time “the jeweled voice.” Most expected that the emperor would urge them on to fight to the end. What they heard was a high-pitched voice speaking in archaic Japanese that many could not comprehend. It was only after a commentator explained that the emperor had agreed to surrender that they knew for certain that the war was over.
When the news reached Washington, the celebrations began immediately. But the formal ceremony ending the war had to wait until Sunday, Sept. 2, 1945, when Japan’s official defeat was staged on the USS Missouri. The document signed by the representatives of the Allied Powers and Japan declared the unconditional surrender of the Imperial General Headquarters and all the armed forces under Japanese control. It also made the authority of the emperor and the Japanese government subject to U.S. General Douglas MacArthur’s orders and commanded all civil and military officers to obey him. At the ceremony’s conclusion, MacArthur moved to a microphone and began a radio address to a world audience. “Today the guns are silent,” began the now famous message. “A great tragedy has ended. A great victory has been won.”
Everything that followed—the disarmament of Japan, the reform of its economic, political, and social institutions, the adoption of a new constitution, and the surrender of Japan’s undefeated armies in China and Southeast Asia—followed from American influence on the emperor, who ordered the unconditional surrender of Japan’s armed forces. With planes soaring overhead and more than 200 ships of the 3rd Fleet stretched out across the bay, America’s might was everywhere in evidence. None of those present could have known that this was the last time Americans would stand as the indisputable victors in war, imposing their will on a conquered foe. The display of military power in Tokyo Bay was intended to awe the Japanese, but it also created a misleading impression of what could be achieved by force of arms.
Beginning in the 19th century, social and technological developments had made warfare so costly as to risk making the attainment of national objectives through military force politically unacceptable. The mobilization of nations for modern war placed enormous pressure on the belligerents and strained even the victors to the breaking point. When the United States went to war against Japan, American strategists hoped to escape that fate by relying primarily on naval forces to isolate the Japanese homeland and compel the enemy’s surrender. The first of those objectives was achieved through the destruction of the Imperial Japanese fleet. By spring 1945, the relentless U.S. aerial assault on Japanese cities added to the enemy’s desperation. Nevertheless, the Japanese government refused to yield on terms acceptable to the Americans. The war continued.
By August 1945, the U.S. Army found itself preparing to fight the most demanding campaigns of the Pacific War with exhausted divisions replenished by green troops. A restive public and increasingly assertive political leaders questioned if victory, defined as Japan’s unconditional surrender, could be achieved at a tolerable cost. The atomic bombs and Soviet entry into the war against Japan cut short that debate and produced swift decision where none had seemed likely. That sudden reversal of fortunes obscured for later generations the extent to which U.S. strategy had been unhinged by Japanese resistance and the splintering of unity at home. It also made the ceremony in Tokyo Bay seem inevitable and reproducible.
America’s next war appeared to follow the pattern of the Pacific War, only compressed in time and geography. The Korean War began with a surprise attack that drove back the United States and its allies and transitioned to a buildup of resources followed by a U.N. offensive. The breakout amphibious landing at Inchon, which recalled MacArthur’s bold leapfrogging operations along the northern coast of New Guinea in World War II, fed expectations of the conquest of North Korea and total victory. The intervention of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army dashed those hopes and forced the United Nations into a protracted and increasingly unpopular war for limited objectives. There would be no enemy capitulation on the deck of a U.S. battlewagon. The fighting ceased with an uneasy truce negotiated in a tent in Panmunjom.
By the time the United States intervened directly in Vietnam, a decade of strategic analysis confirmed the uselessness of nuclear weapons in combat. This was especially so in Asia. In the decade after Hiroshima, American strategists had concluded that use of atomic weapons in Asia would confirm public perceptions that Americans were indifferent to the lives of the region’s inhabitants. To compensate for the shortcomings in nuclear deterrence, American military thinkers advocated a strategy of limited war emphasizing mobility and tactical airpower as the best way to produce victory at a tolerable cost. The United States settled for a limited objective: defense of a noncommunist Vietnam. Fearing a repeat of China’s intervention in Korea, officials ruled out a ground war against North Vietnam, but they incongruously adopted a military strategy that made destruction of the enemy’s capacity to wage war its ultimate objective. Although the United States consistently won individual battles, victory proved even more elusive than in Korea.
Although the outcomes were different, there were similarities between the war with Japan and the Korean and Vietnam conflicts. One was the willingness of the enemy to suffer unimaginable losses while inflicting significant casualties on U.S. forces. Another was that Americans, notably their business and political leaders, were unwilling to accept the strains of protracted war. Instead of viewing those similarities as evidence of the historic tendency of warfare toward indecision, military analysts concluded that Korea and Vietnam proved only that Americans were unsuited for limited war. The remedy was the Powell Doctrine, named after the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the early 1990s. The new dispensation proclaimed there would be no more Vietnams. The United States would only fight winnable wars. Colin Powell put the doctrine into action in 1991 when U.S. and coalition forces liberated Kuwait from Iraqi forces. Operation Desert Storm succeeded in driving Saddam Hussein’s armies back into Iraq, but once that objective was achieved, Powell, fearing a Vietnam-like quagmire if he invaded Iraq, halted the offensive. Celebration of this feat of arms turned to disillusion as Saddam remained in power to torment Americans with the incompleteness of their victory.
A decade later, the digital revolution and accompanying advances in weaponry convinced a new American leadership that they had created a revolution in military affairs. Advocates of this new way of war believed that so-called full-spectrum dominance of the battlefield would enable the United States to achieve overwhelming victory at low cost. The first test of the revolution in military affairs came after the terrorist attack on 9/11, an event that conjured memories of Pearl Harbor.
Instead of responding with a targeted campaign directed at the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks, the United States embarked on an expansive global war on terrorism. Phase one began in October 2001with Operation Enduring Freedom, the invasion of Afghanistan. Operation Iraqi Freedom came next in March 2003. Both operations were envisioned as part of a larger campaign to spread democracy through the Middle East.
In October 2002, as the George W. Bush administration contemplated the invasion of Iraq, military planners looked to the occupation of Japan as a guide for action. Japan, as opposed to Germany, was the most desirable model because it had remained undivided during the occupation and it proved that the United States could nurture democracy in a non-Western nation. But Iraq was not like Japan, at least not in the ways that the administration imagined.
On April 1, 2003, two weeks after the start of the American invasion, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared that the United States sought nothing short of the unconditional surrender of the Iraqi regime. In August 2007, Americans were still fighting in Iraq. As the conflict dragged on, President Bush sought to assure Americans that the “war on terror” would end in a victory like the one secured by his father’s generation. Speaking to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, Bush began with a parable. His story began on “a sunny morning, when thousands of Americans were murdered in a surprise attack and our nation was propelled into a conflict that would take us to every corner of the globe.”
“The enemy I have just described is not al Qaeda,” he continued, “and the attack is not 9/11, and the empire is not the radical caliphate envisioned by Osama bin Laden. Instead, what I’ve described is the war machine of Imperial Japan in the 1940s, its surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, and its attempt to impose its empire throughout East Asia.” Dismissing critics who disparaged American efforts at spreading democracy through the Middle East, the president reminded listeners that experts had also doubted that the United States would be able to democratize Japan.
By the time the president spoke, however, Americans had lost their enthusiasm for the Middle East crusade. Like their predecessors had during the summer of 1945, they looked past the raging conflict and toward domestic pursuits. For most Americans, the price of total victory in the Middle East had exceeded its value.
As Americans commemorate the 75th anniversary of the end of the war with Japan, they would do well to remember that it took two atomic bombs and Soviet entry into the war to compel Japan’s unconditional surrender. A great victory was won. For a moment, but only a moment, the United States had broken free of history and escaped the fate of other nations that struggled to achieve victory at an acceptable cost to its citizens. That moment has never since returned—nor should we expect it to.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-13--What Kamala Harris Tells Us About Gender, Race, U.S. Leadership, and Trouncing Trump

Harris Is Making History , But It ’ s Only a First Step To Gender Parity and Racial Justice Californians were not surprised that Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his running mate .
Whether as state attorney general or U.S. senator , she has won hearts and minds in this vast , diverse state with the fifth-largest economy in the world .
She may not have had federal executive experience , but she has led in a state more populous than many countries .
At each step of her career , she ’ s demonstrated her strengths of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When Biden announced that he would pick a woman to be his running mate , it narrowed his options but plenty remained .
As Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti tweeted , the search committee of which he was a part vetted a number of women ready to lead the country .
That makes it all the more frustrating that the U.S. national security establishment remains so male and so white .
At the best of times , around 30 percent of top posts in the State Department are filled by women—with women of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the best of times .
Representation in the Department of Defense and in the military is even lower .
At each step of her career , Harris has demonstrated her strengths of grit , brilliance , and compassion .
In the wake of the # MeToo movement and racial justice demonstrations , the lack of gender , racial , and other kinds of diversity in the foreign-policy world is garnering more attention , with a spate of articles telling hair-raising tales of sexism and racism and official reports detailing the statistics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Peace and Security , Diversity in National Security , Out in National Security , the Leadership Council for Women in National Security ( LCWINS , a bipartisan organization I co-founded ) , and others have been established to advocate for change .
Research shows that diverse groups make better decisions , so these efforts are as much about improving the quality of national security policymaking as they are about fairness .
Biden and Harris—the latter when she was a candidate for president—took the LCWINS pledge to strive for gender parity in all senior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a great first step to fulfilling that commitment .
Biden has promised to go further if elected , and perhaps he will appoint women to other positions they have never had , such as secretary of defense , treasury , and veterans affairs .
The first two have never been held by a person of color , either .
Though an important step , senior appointments will not be enough to overcome decades of inequality .
What I have learned in politics is that to achieve gender parity and racial equity , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system of metrics , reporting , and accountability .
Cabinet secretaries should have to answer personally for progress or the lack thereof in their departments .
Biden and Harris are already making history .
Together they may have a chance to make even more by making U.S. diplomats and officers better reflect the country they represent .
Harris Makes the Contrast to Trump All the Greater Political insiders often note that the most important thing about the choice of a vice president is what it says about the judgment and priorities of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the case of Joe Biden ’ s choice of Kamala Harris , it says that Biden is not afraid of strong women , that he believes the top levels of his administration should look more like America , and that he does not hold petty grudges , embracing Harris even though—perhaps even because—she had the audacity to challenge him in a primary debate .
If all those characteristics sound like a stark contrast with the insecure , misogynistic , prejudiced , and vindictive incumbent , it is because they are—and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a referendum on Donald Trump , and Harris will help Biden draw contrasts with the current president that will not serve the latter or his campaign well .
The very fact of putting a woman of color and the daughter of immigrants on the ticket , is a direct rebuke of Trump ’ s “ Make America Great Again ” —shorthand for a return to what Trump seems to revere as a golden era , when selecting someone like Harris would have been out of the question .
The choice shows that Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believes the top levels of his administration should look more like America .
But Harris , a former prosecutor and California attorney general , will help Biden draw those contrasts not only because of who she is but because she possesses what Liam Neeson ’ s character in Taken once described as a “ very particular set of skills.
” Trump ’ s failing administration needs to be held to account for its malfeasance—if not outright corruption—and no candidate for Biden ’ s ticket would have been better placed to do so than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barr and Supreme Court justice candidate Brett Kavanaugh look wildly unprepared and not altogether transparent during withering Congressional questioning .
Some progressives may not be entirely comfortable with a vice presidential nominee with a background in law enforcement , but a stronger argument can be made that such a background is exactly what the Biden ticket needs as it runs against an administration which does not exactly prioritize respect for truth and the rule of law .
As a member of the Senate Intelligence and Homeland Security Committees , Harris is also well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failure to protect the security of U.S. elections .
Harris will also help reinforce contrasts with Trump on the international front , where Biden has pledged to restore values , alliances , support for democracy , and U.S. leadership as pillars of U.S. foreign policy .
As a candidate for president , Harris noted that the greatest U.S. foreign policy accomplishment since World War II had been “ the post-war community of international institutions , laws , and democratic nations we helped to build , ” and rightly criticized Trump for “ inflicting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomacy , withdrawing from international agreements and institutions , shunning our allies , siding with dictatorships over democracies , and elevating sheer incompetence in his decision-making processes.
” I , for one , can ’ t wait to hear her join Biden in making that case against an administration that has left the United States weaker and less respected all over the world .
Message to Moscow and Beijing : This Election Will Be a Knife Fight You can hear sighs of relief all around the world as allies and friends see Kamala @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team with the best shot at ending the dystopian presidency of Donald Trump .
During a year of unprecedented bad news—including the COVID-19 pandemic , an economic meltdown , social unrest , and riots from Minsk to Hong Kong to Portland—there is finally a glimmer of hope that the United States may liberate itself from the tangles and snares of the past four years and reassume the mantle of leadership .
Kamala Harris completes a strong , seasoned Democratic team with the best shot at ending the dystopian presidency of Donald Trump .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote and before a winner can be declared .
But the selection of Harris as former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s running mate makes it clear that the Democratic ticket will be much more than an anybody-but-Trump presidential candidate—it will be a balanced and powerful duo with serious foreign and domestic policy chops .
Moscow and Beijing are already getting the message that this team believes in everything they don ’ t , and that this election will be a knife fight in which their state-sponsored hackers and trolls will be out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote brings Biden and Harris to the White House , there will be no time for the dust to settle .
Their administration will have to swing for the fences even before the last float passes the inaugural reviewing stand—or whatever ceremony will be safe to hold by then .
The Biden-Harris team handling foreign policy will inherit a terrain very different from what the Democrats handed off to Donald Trump in 2017 .
The world has changed dramatically in four years as countries made fundamental changes to their relationship with the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the current president and his band of sycophants , and to hedge their bets about where the United States is heading .
While most allies will welcome the United States back into the international family , it will no longer be as the patron , but as a partner among equals .
Its partners may be relieved if and when America is back , but they are also wiser now that they know how easy it is for the United States to walk away .

Foreign Policy went to its stable of experts and asked three Democrats with extensive experience in policy and politics to weigh in on a Biden-Harris ticket. Here are their takes on what the decision tells us about gender and race in the United States, the Democrats’ ability to put the heat on Trump in the campaign, and the chances of reestablishing U.S. leadership in a world that has fundamentally changed in the last four years.
Harris Is Making History, But It’s Only a First Step To Gender Parity and Racial Justice
by Nina Hachigian
Californians were not surprised that Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his running mate. Whether as state attorney general or U.S. senator, she has won hearts and minds in this vast, diverse state with the fifth-largest economy in the world. She may not have had federal executive experience, but she has led in a state more populous than many countries. At each step of her career, she’s demonstrated her strengths of grit, brilliance, and compassion.
When Biden announced that he would pick a woman to be his running mate, it narrowed his options but plenty remained. As Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti tweeted, the search committee of which he was a part vetted a number of women ready to lead the country. That makes it all the more frustrating that the U.S. national security establishment remains so male and so white. At the best of times, around 30 percent of top posts in the State Department are filled by women—with women of color few and far between—and these are not the best of times. Representation in the Department of Defense and in the military is even lower.
At each step of her career, Harris has demonstrated her strengths of grit, brilliance, and compassion.
In the wake of the #MeToo movement and racial justice demonstrations, the lack of gender, racial, and other kinds of diversity in the foreign-policy world is garnering more attention, with a spate of articles telling hair-raising tales of sexism and racism and official reports detailing the statistics.
Groups such as Women of Color Advancing Peace and Security, Diversity in National Security, Out in National Security, the Leadership Council for Women in National Security (LCWINS, a bipartisan organization I co-founded), and others have been established to advocate for change. Research shows that diverse groups make better decisions, so these efforts are as much about improving the quality of national security policymaking as they are about fairness.
Biden and Harris—the latter when she was a candidate for president—took the LCWINS pledge to strive for gender parity in all senior national security appointments. Choosing Harris is a great first step to fulfilling that commitment. Biden has promised to go further if elected, and perhaps he will appoint women to other positions they have never had, such as secretary of defense, treasury, and veterans affairs. The first two have never been held by a person of color, either.
Though an important step, senior appointments will not be enough to overcome decades of inequality. What I have learned in politics is that to achieve gender parity and racial equity, Biden and Harris will need to implement a system of metrics, reporting, and accountability. Cabinet secretaries should have to answer personally for progress or the lack thereof in their departments.
Biden and Harris are already making history. Together they may have a chance to make even more by making U.S. diplomats and officers better reflect the country they represent.
Harris Makes the Contrast to Trump All the Greater
by Philip H. Gordon
Political insiders often note that the most important thing about the choice of a vice president is what it says about the judgment and priorities of the person at the top of the ticket. In the case of Joe Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris, it says that Biden is not afraid of strong women, that he believes the top levels of his administration should look more like America, and that he does not hold petty grudges, embracing Harris even though—perhaps even because—she had the audacity to challenge him in a primary debate. If all those characteristics sound like a stark contrast with the insecure, misogynistic, prejudiced, and vindictive incumbent, it is because they are—and that is the point. This election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and Harris will help Biden draw contrasts with the current president that will not serve the latter or his campaign well. The very fact of putting a woman of color and the daughter of immigrants on the ticket, is a direct rebuke of Trump’s “Make America Great Again”—shorthand for a return to what Trump seems to revere as a golden era, when selecting someone like Harris would have been out of the question.
The choice shows that Biden is not afraid of strong women and believes the top levels of his administration should look more like America.
But Harris, a former prosecutor and California attorney general, will help Biden draw those contrasts not only because of who she is but because she possesses what Liam Neeson’s character in Taken once described as a “very particular set of skills.” Trump’s failing administration needs to be held to account for its malfeasance—if not outright corruption—and no candidate for Biden’s ticket would have been better placed to do so than the woman who made Attorney General Bill Barr and Supreme Court justice candidate Brett Kavanaugh look wildly unprepared and not altogether transparent during withering Congressional questioning. Some progressives may not be entirely comfortable with a vice presidential nominee with a background in law enforcement, but a stronger argument can be made that such a background is exactly what the Biden ticket needs as it runs against an administration which does not exactly prioritize respect for truth and the rule of law. As a member of the Senate Intelligence and Homeland Security Committees, Harris is also well placed to underscore Trump’s outrageous failure to protect the security of U.S. elections.
Harris will also help reinforce contrasts with Trump on the international front, where Biden has pledged to restore values, alliances, support for democracy, and U.S. leadership as pillars of U.S. foreign policy. As a candidate for president, Harris noted that the greatest U.S. foreign policy accomplishment since World War II had been “the post-war community of international institutions, laws, and democratic nations we helped to build,” and rightly criticized Trump for “inflicting further damage to U.S. credibility by disregarding diplomacy, withdrawing from international agreements and institutions, shunning our allies, siding with dictatorships over democracies, and elevating sheer incompetence in his decision-making processes.” I, for one, can’t wait to hear her join Biden in making that case against an administration that has left the United States weaker and less respected all over the world.
Message to Moscow and Beijing: This Election Will Be a Knife Fight
by Jim Townsend
You can hear sighs of relief all around the world as allies and friends see Kamala Harris completing a strong, seasoned Democratic team with the best shot at ending the dystopian presidency of Donald Trump. During a year of unprecedented bad news—including the COVID-19 pandemic, an economic meltdown, social unrest, and riots from Minsk to Hong Kong to Portland—there is finally a glimmer of hope that the United States may liberate itself from the tangles and snares of the past four years and reassume the mantle of leadership.
Kamala Harris completes a strong, seasoned Democratic team with the best shot at ending the dystopian presidency of Donald Trump.
There are miles to go until the vote and before a winner can be declared. But the selection of Harris as former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate makes it clear that the Democratic ticket will be much more than an anybody-but-Trump presidential candidate—it will be a balanced and powerful duo with serious foreign and domestic policy chops. Moscow and Beijing are already getting the message that this team believes in everything they don’t, and that this election will be a knife fight in which their state-sponsored hackers and trolls will be out of their league.
If the November vote brings Biden and Harris to the White House, there will be no time for the dust to settle. Their administration will have to swing for the fences even before the last float passes the inaugural reviewing stand—or whatever ceremony will be safe to hold by then. The Biden-Harris team handling foreign policy will inherit a terrain very different from what the Democrats handed off to Donald Trump in 2017. The world has changed dramatically in four years as countries made fundamental changes to their relationship with the United States in order to avoid being targeted by the current president and his band of sycophants, and to hedge their bets about where the United States is heading. While most allies will welcome the United States back into the international family, it will no longer be as the patron, but as a partner among equals. Its partners may be relieved if and when America is back, but they are also wiser now that they know how easy it is for the United States to walk away.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-14--The Israel-UAE Deal Is Trump’s First Unambiguous Diplomatic Success

The Israel-UAE Deal Is Trump ’ s First Unambiguous Diplomatic Success It ’ s a major win for U.S. President Donald Trump—arguably his administration ’ s first unqualified diplomatic success .
Trump has previously claimed many foreign policy achievements , but most of these claims have been met with substantial critiques .
Yes , the North American Free Trade Agreement was renegotiated , but the result was much less than meets the eye .
A few tweaks , some necessary updating , and slapping a new name on it .
But hardly the unprecedented triumph for U.S. trade policy that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increased burden-sharing by NATO members .
Sure , Trump ’ s threats and public taunts led several countries to increase their military spending , but at what cost to relations with the United States ’ most important democratic allies and the credibility of the U.S. commitment to Europe ’ s common defense ?
What about Trump ’ s love affair with Kim Jung Un ?
The freeze on North Korea ’ s testing of nukes and intercontinental missiles has been great .
The significant expansion of Kim ’ s arsenal of nuclear weapons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal is different—it ’ s a genuine historic accomplishment that ’ s unambiguously good for the United States and will contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East .
The Israel-UAE deal is different .
It ’ s a genuine historic accomplishment that ’ s unambiguously good for the United States .
It will bolster Israel ’ s security and wellbeing , a longstanding vital interest of the United States .
It will contribute to peace and stability in the broader Middle East , not only by indefinitely forestalling a potentially destabilizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the West Bank , but by giving the UAE and other modernizing Gulf states full access to the region ’ s dominant military and intelligence power , and to its most technologically advanced economy .
It will worry , isolate , and enhance deterrence against Iran , the United States ’ most dangerous regional adversary .
And it reaffirms Washington ’ s still-unrivaled ability to serve as a force for good in alleviating some of the world ’ s most intractable conflicts .
Neither China nor Russia , nor Europe nor the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same role of peacemaker .
The agreement will rightly garner virtually unanimous support across the U.S. political spectrum .
As Joe Biden , the Democratic Party ’ s presumptive presidential nominee , indicated in his response to the announcement , the effort to advance peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors has been a top priority for administrations of both parties going back decades .
It was unfortunate that in his statement praising the deal , Biden couldn ’ t bring himself to congratulate Trump and his peace team for their role .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect in today ’ s intensely polarized environment , especially in an election year .
There ’ s no doubt that the agreement will redound completely to Trump ’ s political advantage at a time when he ’ s badly in need of wins .
And it will likely continue to pay major dividends to his reelection effort when one or more other Gulf states join the normalization process , and he plays host to a White House signing ceremony after the technical details of the deal are finalized—probably as close to Election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s success might be bad for the Democrats ’ narrow political interests , it ’ s an unadulterated good for U.S. national interests .
Biden knows that and it would have been gracious and fitting for him , even healing in a way , to rise above today ’ s destructive partisanship , if only for a moment , to acknowledge the victory for the United States and to thank Trump for getting it done .
In the same way , it would be a nice touch if Trump were to invite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidents to attend a signing ceremony when it finally happens and to recognize his predecessors ’ role in pressing the cause of Middle East peace over the years .
It would be a chance to send a powerful signal to the world that even in the middle of a bitterly fought election campaign , the leaders of the United States are still able to unite on behalf of the common good .
It would take a miracle , you say , for that kind of display of bipartisan statesmanship .
Perhaps .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say about peace between Israel and the Arabs ?
Hope indeed springs eternal .

It’s a major win for U.S. President Donald Trump—arguably his administration’s first unqualified diplomatic success. Trump has previously claimed many foreign policy achievements, but most of these claims have been met with substantial critiques. Yes, the North American Free Trade Agreement was renegotiated, but the result was much less than meets the eye. A few tweaks, some necessary updating, and slapping a new name on it. But hardly the unprecedented triumph for U.S. trade policy that Trump heralded. Ditto for something like increased burden-sharing by NATO members. Sure, Trump’s threats and public taunts led several countries to increase their military spending, but at what cost to relations with the United States’ most important democratic allies and the credibility of the U.S. commitment to Europe’s common defense? What about Trump’s love affair with Kim Jung Un? The freeze on North Korea’s testing of nukes and intercontinental missiles has been great. The significant expansion of Kim’s arsenal of nuclear weapons? Not so much. The Israel-UAE deal is different—it’s a genuine historic accomplishment that’s unambiguously good for the United States and will contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East.
It’s a major win for U.S. President Donald Trump—arguably his administration’s first unqualified diplomatic success. Trump has previously claimed many foreign policy achievements, but most of these claims have been met with substantial critiques. Yes, the North American Free Trade Agreement was renegotiated, but the result was much less than meets the eye. A few tweaks, some necessary updating, and slapping a new name on it. But hardly the unprecedented triumph for U.S. trade policy that Trump heralded. Ditto for something like increased burden-sharing by NATO members. Sure, Trump’s threats and public taunts led several countries to increase their military spending, but at what cost to relations with the United States’ most important democratic allies and the credibility of the U.S. commitment to Europe’s common defense? What about Trump’s love affair with Kim Jung Un? The freeze on North Korea’s testing of nukes and intercontinental missiles has been great. The significant expansion of Kim’s arsenal of nuclear weapons? Not so much.
The Israel-UAE deal is different—it’s a genuine historic accomplishment that’s unambiguously good for the United States and will contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East.
The Israel-UAE deal is different. It’s a genuine historic accomplishment that’s unambiguously good for the United States. It will bolster Israel’s security and wellbeing, a longstanding vital interest of the United States. It will contribute to peace and stability in the broader Middle East, not only by indefinitely forestalling a potentially destabilizing unilateral assertion of Israeli sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, but by giving the UAE and other modernizing Gulf states full access to the region’s dominant military and intelligence power, and to its most technologically advanced economy. It will worry, isolate, and enhance deterrence against Iran, the United States’ most dangerous regional adversary. And it reaffirms Washington’s still-unrivaled ability to serve as a force for good in alleviating some of the world’s most intractable conflicts. Neither China nor Russia, nor Europe nor the United Nations, could have played the same role of peacemaker.
The agreement will rightly garner virtually unanimous support across the U.S. political spectrum. As Joe Biden, the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, indicated in his response to the announcement, the effort to advance peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors has been a top priority for administrations of both parties going back decades.
It was unfortunate that in his statement praising the deal, Biden couldn’t bring himself to congratulate Trump and his peace team for their role. Maybe that’s too much to expect in today’s intensely polarized environment, especially in an election year. There’s no doubt that the agreement will redound completely to Trump’s political advantage at a time when he’s badly in need of wins. And it will likely continue to pay major dividends to his reelection effort when one or more other Gulf states join the normalization process, and he plays host to a White House signing ceremony after the technical details of the deal are finalized—probably as close to Election Day as possible. But while Trump’s success might be bad for the Democrats’ narrow political interests, it’s an unadulterated good for U.S. national interests. Biden knows that and it would have been gracious and fitting for him, even healing in a way, to rise above today’s destructive partisanship, if only for a moment, to acknowledge the victory for the United States and to thank Trump for getting it done.
In the same way, it would be a nice touch if Trump were to invite Biden as well as all living former presidents to attend a signing ceremony when it finally happens and to recognize his predecessors’ role in pressing the cause of Middle East peace over the years. It would be a chance to send a powerful signal to the world that even in the middle of a bitterly fought election campaign, the leaders of the United States are still able to unite on behalf of the common good.
It would take a miracle, you say, for that kind of display of bipartisan statesmanship. Perhaps. But isn’t that what people used to say about peace between Israel and the Arabs? Hope indeed springs eternal.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-14--U.S. and China Expected to Meet for Trade Talks as Tensions Escalate

U.S. and China Expected to Meet for Trade Talks as Tensions Escalate Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : U.S. and Chinese trade representatives set to meet for talks , Israel and the UAE sign historic deal normalizing relations , and mass arrests threaten Ethiopian democracy .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are expected to meet on Aug. 15 to review their countries ’ Phase 1 trade deal amid increasingly strained relations between the world ’ s two largest economies .
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will participate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Premier Liu He .
The meeting will give both sides a face-to-face opportunity to air continuing grievances over the deal .
As part of the agreement , China agreed to purchase U.S. goods at an increase of about $ 200 billion compared to 2017 levels .
But Beijing hasn ’ t met its commitments , in part due to the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic .
It is still well behind the pace needed to meet the $ 77 billion first-year increase it agreed , and it is importing farm goods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese tech firms .
China plans to broaden the agenda beyond the trade deal , and it is expected to raise the issue of U.S. bans on Chinese tech conglomerates .
U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s executive orders banning the Chinese social networking giant TikTok and the messaging platform WeChat are scheduled to go into force in mid-September , and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently hinted that these bans could be extended to other Chinese companies .
With just one month until they take effect , this issue is set to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s the election , stupid .
The economic slowdown coupled with Trump ’ s overwhelmingly unpopular pandemic response leave him with few issues on which to sell his reelection bid , and he is making getting tough on China one of his signature campaign issues .
A recent survey from the Pew Research Center shows that a large majority of the U.S. public agree with the administration ’ s unfavorable view of China .
But Trump is walking a tightrope .
The trade deal commits China to purchasing agricultural products from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong base—so one of his key priorities will be ensuring that China meets its pledge to purchase U.S. agricultural goods .
“ For Trump , in a word , it ’ s about farmers—the sales that they can make for red states in this election , ” Scott Kennedy , a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies , told Bloomberg .
Israel and UAE normalize ties .
On Thursday , Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached an agreement brokered by the United States which normalizes bilateral relations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have had formal diplomatic ties .
As part of its commitments in the accord , Israel has agreed to put a temporary halt to its plans to annex parts of the West Bank , though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this will remain his long-term ambition .
In a statement , Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the agreement as a “ betrayal of Jerusalem , Al-Aqsa and the Palestinian cause.
” The move was in large part motivated by shared concerns over Iran ’ s military posture in the region .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is reflective of a broader shift in Arab-Israeli relations , moving away from animosity over the Palestinian issue and toward agreement on Iran .
But as Bilal Y. Saab writes for Foreign Policy , Netanyahu ’ s ability to walk back an unrealistic campaign promise on annexation in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations with a regional power makes him—and Israel—the biggest winners .
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Oman and Bahrain may follow the UAE and seek to normalize relations with Israel in the coming days .
China ’ s show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Thursday that it had conducted a series of military exercises around Taiwan in a provocative show of force as relations with the United States continue to sour .
The exercises occurred at the tail-end of a visit to the island by U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar , the highest-level meeting between U.S. and Taiwanese officials since Washington severed formal diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979 .
China threatened unspecified retaliatory action in response to the visit , and on Monday two Chinese jets briefly crossed into Taiwanese airspace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen .
Although Thursday ’ s exercises were preplanned , they are a reminder of China ’ s increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan .
Emergency powers in Lebanon .
The Lebanese parliament voted to approve the country ’ s state of emergency as protests against the political elite continue to rage .
The decision grants sweeping powers to the army , allowing it to crack down on free speech , freedom of assembly , freedom of the press , and to arrest anyone it deems a security threat .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the day after the deadly explosions that rocked Beirut last week , but it required a parliamentary vote to have legal sanction .
Thursday ’ s vote was almost unanimous , with only one parliamentarian in the 119-person body voting against the measure .
Although lawmakers in support of the legislation said it did not impact the public ’ s right to protest , several reports have emerged accusing the security forces of using excessive force against protesters .
Critics contend that emergency powers will be used by the political elite to protect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Diab ’ s entire government resigning earlier this week .
The legislation is set to expire on Aug. 21 , but it can be renewed .
Democratic backsliding in Ethiopia .
More than 9,000 people have been arrested in Ethiopia since deadly ethnic clashes tore through the capital of Addis Ababa in June , prompting concerns that Nobel Peace laureate and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ’ s government is reverting to the same strong-arm tactics Ethiopian leaders have used in the past .
The clashes in June were sparked by the assassination of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tensions between the country ’ s major ethnic groups .
The incident led to the deployment of Ethiopian troops .
Abiy received much praise for introducing modernizing democratic reforms after taking office in 2018 , but the deterioration of the situation in recent months suggests that he still relies on the repressive tactics of his predecessors to manage the country ’ s protracted ethnic difficulties .
Writing for Foreign Policy in November , Addisu Lashitew warned that Ethiopian democracy could unravel if the country didn ’ t move beyond ethnic politics .
France @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense ministry said on Thursday that it plans to send two fighter jets and a naval frigate to the eastern Mediterranean in order to boost its military presence as tensions between Greece and Turkey escalate .
The announcement was followed by joint French-Greek military exercises in the region .
Greece and Turkey have long been at odds over the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean , where both countries have staked overlapping territorial claims .
Tensions rose sharply this week after Turkey sent a research vessel reinforced by a contingent of naval ships close to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Greece responded by sending its own naval detachment .
The adjacent cities of Albury and Wodonga in Australia operate as a single community , and in normal times they are separated only by the Murray River .
But the cities are in different states , and the New South Wales government ’ s decision to bar entry to people traveling from Victoria in order to fight the spread of the coronavirus has virtually split the Albury-Wodonga urban area into two .
A police checkpoint now sits at the border , and residents are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into a city they once considered just another part of town .
While the situation is little more than an unusual inconvenience for some , for others it ’ s much more serious .
It has had an adverse effect on residents who normally cross the border to seek medical attention , and it has hurt businesses that rely on cross-border trade and travel to stay afloat .
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Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are set to meet for talks, Israel and the UAE sign a historic deal normalizing relations, and mass arrests threaten Ethiopian democracy .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are set to meet for talks, Israel and the UAE sign a historic deal normalizing relations, and mass arrests threaten Ethiopian democracy.
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United States and China Prepare for Weekend Trade Talks
U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are expected to meet on Aug. 15 to review their countries’ Phase 1 trade deal amid increasingly strained relations between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will participate in a video conference call with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. The meeting will give both sides a face-to-face opportunity to air continuing grievances over the deal.
As part of the agreement, China agreed to purchase U.S. goods at an increase of about $200 billion compared to 2017 levels. But Beijing hasn’t met its commitments, in part due to the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. It is still well behind the pace needed to meet the $77 billion first-year increase it agreed, and it is importing farm goods far below 2017 levels.
Wrangling over Chinese tech firms. China plans to broaden the agenda beyond the trade deal, and it is expected to raise the issue of U.S. bans on Chinese tech conglomerates. U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive orders banning the Chinese social networking giant TikTok and the messaging platform WeChat are scheduled to go into force in mid-September, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently hinted that these bans could be extended to other Chinese companies. With just one month until they take effect, this issue is set to be a key topic of discussion.
It’s the election, stupid. The economic slowdown coupled with Trump’s overwhelmingly unpopular pandemic response leave him with few issues on which to sell his reelection bid, and he is making getting tough on China one of his signature campaign issues. A recent survey from the Pew Research Center shows that a large majority of the U.S. public agree with the administration’s unfavorable view of China.
But Trump is walking a tightrope. The trade deal commits China to purchasing agricultural products from U.S. farmers—among whom Trump has cultivated a strong base—so one of his key priorities will be ensuring that China meets its pledge to purchase U.S. agricultural goods. “For Trump, in a word, it’s about farmers—the sales that they can make for red states in this election,” Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg.
What We’re Following Today
Israel and UAE normalize ties. On Thursday, Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached an agreement brokered by the United States which normalizes bilateral relations, marking the first time the two countries have had formal diplomatic ties.
As part of its commitments in the accord, Israel has agreed to put a temporary halt to its plans to annex parts of the West Bank, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this will remain his long-term ambition. In a statement, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the agreement as a “betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa and the Palestinian cause.”
The move was in large part motivated by shared concerns over Iran’s military posture in the region. As Neri Zilber writes for Foreign Policy, this is reflective of a broader shift in Arab-Israeli relations, moving away from animosity over the Palestinian issue and toward agreement on Iran.
But as Bilal Y. Saab writes for Foreign Policy, Netanyahu’s ability to walk back an unrealistic campaign promise on annexation in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations with a regional power makes him—and Israel—the biggest winners. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Oman and Bahrain may follow the UAE and seek to normalize relations with Israel in the coming days.
China’s show of force. The Chinese military announced on Thursday that it had conducted a series of military exercises around Taiwan in a provocative show of force as relations with the United States continue to sour. The exercises occurred at the tail-end of a visit to the island by U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, the highest-level meeting between U.S. and Taiwanese officials since Washington severed formal diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979.
China threatened unspecified retaliatory action in response to the visit, and on Monday two Chinese jets briefly crossed into Taiwanese airspace just prior to the meeting between Azar and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Although Thursday’s exercises were preplanned, they are a reminder of China’s increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan.
Emergency powers in Lebanon. The Lebanese parliament voted to approve the country’s state of emergency as protests against the political elite continue to rage. The decision grants sweeping powers to the army, allowing it to crack down on free speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of the press, and to arrest anyone it deems a security threat. The government declared a state of emergency the day after the deadly explosions that rocked Beirut last week, but it required a parliamentary vote to have legal sanction. Thursday’s vote was almost unanimous, with only one parliamentarian in the 119-person body voting against the measure.
Although lawmakers in support of the legislation said it did not impact the public’s right to protest, several reports have emerged accusing the security forces of using excessive force against protesters. Critics contend that emergency powers will be used by the political elite to protect their status, despite Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s entire government resigning earlier this week. The legislation is set to expire on Aug. 21, but it can be renewed.
Keep an Eye On
Democratic backsliding in Ethiopia. More than 9,000 people have been arrested in Ethiopia since deadly ethnic clashes tore through the capital of Addis Ababa in June, prompting concerns that Nobel Peace laureate and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is reverting to the same strong-arm tactics Ethiopian leaders have used in the past. The clashes in June were sparked by the assassination of popular musician Hachalu Hundessa and ignited long-standing tensions between the country’s major ethnic groups. The incident led to the deployment of Ethiopian troops.
Abiy received much praise for introducing modernizing democratic reforms after taking office in 2018, but the deterioration of the situation in recent months suggests that he still relies on the repressive tactics of his predecessors to manage the country’s protracted ethnic difficulties. Writing for Foreign Policy in November, Addisu Lashitew warned that Ethiopian democracy could unravel if the country didn’t move beyond ethnic politics.
France stokes tensions with Turkey. The French defense ministry said on Thursday that it plans to send two fighter jets and a naval frigate to the eastern Mediterranean in order to boost its military presence as tensions between Greece and Turkey escalate. The announcement was followed by joint French-Greek military exercises in the region.
Greece and Turkey have long been at odds over the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean, where both countries have staked overlapping territorial claims. Tensions rose sharply this week after Turkey sent a research vessel reinforced by a contingent of naval ships close to the Greek island of Kastellorizo, to which Greece responded by sending its own naval detachment.
Odds and Ends
The adjacent cities of Albury and Wodonga in Australia operate as a single community, and in normal times they are separated only by the Murray River. But the cities are in different states, and the New South Wales government’s decision to bar entry to people traveling from Victoria in order to fight the spread of the coronavirus has virtually split the Albury-Wodonga urban area into two. A police checkpoint now sits at the border, and residents are required to have a permit to cross into a city they once considered just another part of town.
While the situation is little more than an unusual inconvenience for some, for others it’s much more serious. It has had an adverse effect on residents who normally cross the border to seek medical attention, and it has hurt businesses that rely on cross-border trade and travel to stay afloat.
That’s it for today.
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