foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--Brazil’s First Wave Isn’t Over Yet

Brazil’s First Wave Isn’t Over Yet

Brazil ’ s First Wave Isn ’ t Over Yet RIO DE JANEIRO—Until recently , it seemed as if the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was finally over in Manaus , a city of more than 2 million people in the middle of the Brazilian Amazon .
As the number of COVID-19 cases slowed in June , authorities dismantled field hospitals .
Bars and river beaches reopened soon after , drawing crowds of people out of isolation .
In September , children went back to school , packing into cramped classrooms .
Just a few months earlier , the city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus outbreak .
At the peak of the crisis , patients with COVID-19 in Manaus died at four times the national mortality rate .
Public hospitals overflowed , and city workers dug mass graves .
By September , the coronavirus had infected 66 percent of people , leading researchers to question whether Manaus was the first city in the world to reach herd immunity .
Those hopes were dashed in recent weeks as COVID-19 cases in the city spiked again among people who hadn ’ t been infected , triggering another round of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bars and beaches .
João Hugo , a doctor who oversees a Manaus hospital , saw the number of patients climbing in early October .
The critical care unit began to fill up as more people arrived with symptoms of COVID-19 .
“ There was an easing of restrictions .
People saw the number of cases wasn ’ t rising , and they felt safe again , ” Hugo said in mid-October .
“ The wealthier class came out of quarantine , and we started seeing a spike in new cases .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were isolating.
” Brazil has battled one of the world ’ s worst coronavirus outbreaks , with 5.4 million confirmed cases and 158,000 people dead .
Despite the government ’ s chaotic handling of the pandemic , the virus appeared to be slowing down .
This week , the daily average of COVID-19 deaths fell to its lowest since early May .
But spikes in new infections , like the one in the state of Amazonas , cast doubt on Brazil ’ s progress .
Its public health system is especially vulnerable due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up in April and May to cope with the initial surge .
The emergency facilities helped alleviate the pressure on public hospitals at the peak of the crisis .
Now health professionals worry that in Brazil ’ s poorer northern states , hospitals with fewer resources may come under strain again .
In Amazonas , there are now 480 hospital beds available for COVID-19 patients , down from more than 1,200 at the end of June , according to the state ’ s health department .
Around 68 percent of the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ located in Manaus—are already occupied .
“ With the stabilization in the number of cases and hospitalizations , these [ hospital ] beds were redistributed in the public health system to serve patients with other illnesses , ” a spokesperson for the department wrote in an email .
Doctors in the northern state of Amapá have seen a similar uptick in cases in recent weeks .
Aljerry Rêgo , who runs the only dedicated COVID-19 facility left in Macapá , the state capital , said the clinic emptied out in early August .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical care beds began rapidly filling up again .
“ This is already a worrying trend , ” he said .
“ The last time I had so many patients in ICU was during the peak in May and June.
” Concerns are mounting about how remote areas that often lack health facilities will cope with the surge .
Concerns are mounting about how remote areas that often lack health facilities will cope with the surge .
In Amazonas , an increase in travel from Manaus to rural areas has in part driven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People started returning to the countryside to visit their family members , bringing the virus with them , ” Hugo said .
“ So there was a migration , from the capital to the countryside , which is putting more demand on the public health system there.
” In remote parts of the state , patients must travel for days by boat to reach a hospital .
Deaths from COVID-19 are also on the rise nationwide in Brazil ’ s indigenous communities , rising by one-third over the last month , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indigenous health ministry .
Since the start of the pandemic , indigenous groups have recorded more than 38,000 cases and nearly 900 deaths , but a lack of diagnostic testing means the toll is likely much higher .
Advocates say indigenous people are particularly vulnerable , with little assistance from the government .
Vanderlecia Ortega dos Santos , a nurse from the Witoto tribe , has cared for around 500 families living in the Parque das Tribos , an indigenous region on the outskirts of Manaus .
Most community residents have already experienced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have lingering side effects .
“ I ’ m still really afraid , ” dos Santos said .
“ Here in the Parque das Tribos , we continue to provide preventative guidance to our people .
… We don ’ t know if they can be reinfected.
” The surge in COVID-19 cases coincides with forest fires in the Amazon and the Pantanal wetlands .
In these regions , health systems have come under strain as more patients arrive at hospitals sickened by ash and smoke , which compounds the effects of COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in areas where the deforestation is really intense , the fires are advancing into their territories , and this is really affecting their health , ” dos Santos said .
“ Respiratory problems increase without a doubt .
And for people who are sick with COVID , who have had their lungs really compromised , the smoke only aggravates this.
” “ We are running the risk of going back to having people on the waiting list , people dying waiting for an ICU bed.
” Rio de Janeiro ’ s health system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to health workers .
“ We ’ re at a critical level , ” said Diana Curado , a doctor at a public hospital in the city ’ s western outskirts , who noted that she had seen some suspected reinfections .
“ At this moment , we ’ re at the limit .
… We are running the risk of going back to having people on the waiting list , people dying waiting for an ICU bed.
” While European countries are imposing fresh restrictions , Brazil is unlikely to follow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns from the start , as far-right President Jair Bolsonaro lashed out against isolation measures and urged people to go back to work .
Mayors and governors initially clashed with Bolsonaro , shutting bars , malls , gyms , and beaches across the country .
But Bolsonaro ’ s message resonated with many Brazilians hit by the financial blow of the pandemic .
With local elections beginning on Nov. 15 , many mayors have caved to political pressure to relax restrictions .
As other countries prepare to confront a second wave of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to emerge from its initial crisis .
“ We ’ re still in the first wave .
It ’ s a wave with no end , ” she said .

RIO DE JANEIRO—Until recently, it seemed as if the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was finally over in Manaus, a city of more than 2 million people in the middle of the Brazilian Amazon. As the number of COVID-19 cases slowed in June, authorities dismantled field hospitals. Bars and river beaches reopened soon after, drawing crowds of people out of isolation. In September, children went back to school, packing into cramped classrooms.
RIO DE JANEIRO—Until recently, it seemed as if the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was finally over in Manaus, a city of more than 2 million people in the middle of the Brazilian Amazon. As the number of COVID-19 cases slowed in June, authorities dismantled field hospitals. Bars and river beaches reopened soon after, drawing crowds of people out of isolation. In September, children went back to school, packing into cramped classrooms.
Just a few months earlier, the city was the epicenter of Brazil’s coronavirus outbreak. At the peak of the crisis, patients with COVID-19 in Manaus died at four times the national mortality rate. Public hospitals overflowed, and city workers dug mass graves. By September, the coronavirus had infected 66 percent of people, leading researchers to question whether Manaus was the first city in the world to reach herd immunity.
Those hopes were dashed in recent weeks as COVID-19 cases in the city spiked again among people who hadn’t been infected, triggering another round of restrictions as the mayor shut down the bars and beaches. João Hugo, a doctor who oversees a Manaus hospital, saw the number of patients climbing in early October. The critical care unit began to fill up as more people arrived with symptoms of COVID-19.
“There was an easing of restrictions. People saw the number of cases wasn’t rising, and they felt safe again,” Hugo said in mid-October. “The wealthier class came out of quarantine, and we started seeing a spike in new cases. The virus is now spreading among those who were isolating.”
Brazil has battled one of the world’s worst coronavirus outbreaks, with 5.4 million confirmed cases and 158,000 people dead. Despite the government’s chaotic handling of the pandemic, the virus appeared to be slowing down. This week, the daily average of COVID-19 deaths fell to its lowest since early May. But spikes in new infections, like the one in the state of Amazonas, cast doubt on Brazil’s progress. Its public health system is especially vulnerable due to the closure of field hospitals set up in April and May to cope with the initial surge.
The emergency facilities helped alleviate the pressure on public hospitals at the peak of the crisis. Now health professionals worry that in Brazil’s poorer northern states, hospitals with fewer resources may come under strain again.
In Amazonas, there are now 480 hospital beds available for COVID-19 patients, down from more than 1,200 at the end of June, according to the state’s health department. Around 68 percent of the state’s 270 critical care beds—all of them located in Manaus—are already occupied. “With the stabilization in the number of cases and hospitalizations, these [hospital] beds were redistributed in the public health system to serve patients with other illnesses,” a spokesperson for the department wrote in an email.
Doctors in the northern state of Amapá have seen a similar uptick in cases in recent weeks. Aljerry Rêgo, who runs the only dedicated COVID-19 facility left in Macapá, the state capital, said the clinic emptied out in early August. But in mid-October, the 30 available critical care beds began rapidly filling up again. “This is already a worrying trend,” he said. “The last time I had so many patients in ICU was during the peak in May and June.”
Concerns are mounting about how remote areas that often lack health facilities will cope with the surge.
Concerns are mounting about how remote areas that often lack health facilities will cope with the surge. In Amazonas, an increase in travel from Manaus to rural areas has in part driven the increase in new cases. “People started returning to the countryside to visit their family members, bringing the virus with them,” Hugo said. “So there was a migration, from the capital to the countryside, which is putting more demand on the public health system there.” In remote parts of the state, patients must travel for days by boat to reach a hospital.
Deaths from COVID-19 are also on the rise nationwide in Brazil’s indigenous communities, rising by one-third over the last month, according to official figures from the country’s indigenous health ministry. Since the start of the pandemic, indigenous groups have recorded more than 38,000 cases and nearly 900 deaths, but a lack of diagnostic testing means the toll is likely much higher.
Advocates say indigenous people are particularly vulnerable, with little assistance from the government. Vanderlecia Ortega dos Santos, a nurse from the Witoto tribe, has cared for around 500 families living in the Parque das Tribos, an indigenous region on the outskirts of Manaus. Most community residents have already experienced symptoms of COVID-19, and some still have lingering side effects. “I’m still really afraid,” dos Santos said. “Here in the Parque das Tribos, we continue to provide preventative guidance to our people. … We don’t know if they can be reinfected.”
The surge in COVID-19 cases coincides with forest fires in the Amazon and the Pantanal wetlands. In these regions, health systems have come under strain as more patients arrive at hospitals sickened by ash and smoke, which compounds the effects of COVID-19. “Our indigenous people who live in areas where the deforestation is really intense, the fires are advancing into their territories, and this is really affecting their health,” dos Santos said. “Respiratory problems increase without a doubt. And for people who are sick with COVID, who have had their lungs really compromised, the smoke only aggravates this.”
“We are running the risk of going back to having people on the waiting list, people dying waiting for an ICU bed.”
Rio de Janeiro’s health system is also coming under renewed pressure, according to health workers. “We’re at a critical level,” said Diana Curado, a doctor at a public hospital in the city’s western outskirts, who noted that she had seen some suspected reinfections. “At this moment, we’re at the limit. … We are running the risk of going back to having people on the waiting list, people dying waiting for an ICU bed.”
While European countries are imposing fresh restrictions, Brazil is unlikely to follow suit. Local governments struggled to impose lockdowns from the start, as far-right President Jair Bolsonaro lashed out against isolation measures and urged people to go back to work. Mayors and governors initially clashed with Bolsonaro, shutting bars, malls, gyms, and beaches across the country. But Bolsonaro’s message resonated with many Brazilians hit by the financial blow of the pandemic. With local elections beginning on Nov. 15, many mayors have caved to political pressure to relax restrictions.
As other countries prepare to confront a second wave of the pandemic, Curado says Brazil has yet to emerge from its initial crisis. “We’re still in the first wave. It’s a wave with no end,” she said.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Could Outlast Him

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s Security Brief—the last edition before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3 .
What ’ s on tap today : The Trump administration scrambles to counter China ahead of the election , congressional Democrats in prepare to brawl over defense spending , and the Pentagon admits new civilian deaths in the fight against the Islamic State .
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
Though U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be the underdog next week , the upcoming election hasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moves across the Asia-Pacific region to counter China ’ s rise .
On Tuesday , after meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper signed a pact to share sensitive satellite information that can provide targets for missiles and drones , the latest major defense deal with New Delhi .
The Trump administration has also pledged to beef up the U.S. diplomatic presence in the region , with Pompeo announcing plans to open the first-ever U.S. embassy in the Maldives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pompeo used visits to the Maldives and Sri Lanka to slam what he has dubbed China ’ s “ debt-trap diplomacy ” —predatory loans on infrastructure projects in both countries .
Pompeo is visiting Indonesia today .
The State Department also approved the sale of more than $ 2 billion in Harpoon missiles to Taiwan this week , leading Beijing to announce sanctions against three major U.S. defense contractors .
Those aren ’ t the only moves that the United States is making .
Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite just wrapped up a trip @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. military was falling behind in competition with China .
He traveled through Japan , Singapore , Guam , and Palau—a tiny island that has asked the Pentagon to build bases , ports , and airfields to counter Beijing .
“ It is an unbelievable threat to our way of life , ” Braithwaite said during the trip , which he also used to articulate Chinese military threats in the Arctic .
Pompeo , Esper , and Braithwaite could all be lame ducks by next week , but their pre-election moves are likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In an interview with CBS 60 Minutes last week , Biden called China the greatest geopolitical competitor to the United States , and so far his policy to contain Beijing sounds like more of the same .
“ People in Beijing may be nervous about Joe Biden because they recognize that he is going to work with allies , ” Jeffrey Prescott , a Biden advisor , told Axios .
That doesn ’ t sound like an administration that would reverse Trump ’ s moves—but one that might make them enduring .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ violence hangs over the U.S. elections as political polarization surges across the country .
The International Crisis Group has issued a new report analyzing the risks of violence during or immediately after the election , and warning that the polarization has fostered “ an environment in which non-state groups , cells and actors , some of whom adopt paramilitary trappings , pose an increasing security risk.
” This is the first time that the International Crisis Group , which usually focuses on fragile states and war-torn countries , has issued such a report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month , members of a right-wing terror group were detained after allegedly plotting to storm the state ’ s capitol and kidnap Michigan ’ s Democratic governor , Gretchen Whitmer .
South Carolina Gov .
Henry McMaster was also on the group ’ s target list , according to a new report .
Offensive on defense .
Focused on defeating Trump , progressive and centrist Democrats have largely paused their policy feuds ahead of the 2020 elections .
But if the Democrats take the White House and Senate , there is a fight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected to renew a push for deep defense spending cuts , as Politico ’ s Connor O ’ Brien reports .
“ This will be a top priority of the progressive caucus—to really get some meaningful budget cuts in Pentagon spending this next cycle , ” Rep. Pramila Jayapal , the co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus , said earlier this month .
Mis-accountability .
The Pentagon has released a new report on the campaign against the Islamic State—Operation Inherent Resolve—that found the U.S.-led coalition conducted 34,917 strikes since the operation began in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Pentagon reports that strikes unintentionally killed at least 1,410 civilians .
Human rights groups have consistently accused the coalition of undercounting civilian casualties .
Independent investigators estimate that the number of civilians killed by U.S.-led actions in Iraq and Syria totals between 8,320 and 13,247 over the course of six years .
State Department move .
Nicholas Kass took over on Monday as a deputy assistant secretary of state overseeing Africa , Asia , and Design , Monitoring , and Evaluation at the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scooby-Doo episodes.
” —White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows , in reaction to former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff Miles Taylor revealing that he was the official who wrote an anonymous New York Times op-ed describing a resistance within the administration On the house .
When Trump hosted then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida two years ago , the Trump Organization billed U.S. taxpayers for thousands of dollars in expenses , for everything from floral arrangements to the $ 3 water bottles that the two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stunning investigation by The Washington Post reveals that the Trump Organization has taken at least $ 2.5 million out of taxpayer ’ s pockets since Trump became president , and the company has charged another $ 5.6 million to his campaign and fundraising committee .
The trend has continued even as Trump loses ground in the polls .
Consult the manual .
The U.S. military is increasingly online , using gaming platforms and especially the popular gaming streaming site Twitch to find new recruits .
As gaming news site ShackNews.com reports , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when Twitch viewers ask Navy streamers about war crimes .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or typos to securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief—the last edition before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief—the last edition before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3.
What’s on tap today: The Trump administration scrambles to counter China ahead of the election, congressional Democrats in prepare to brawl over defense spending, and the Pentagon admits new civilian deaths in the fight against the Islamic State.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
Trump’s Moves in the Indo-Pacific
Though U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be the underdog next week, the upcoming election hasn’t stopped his administration from embarking on moves across the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s rise. On Tuesday, after meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper signed a pact to share sensitive satellite information that can provide targets for missiles and drones, the latest major defense deal with New Delhi.
The Trump administration has also pledged to beef up the U.S. diplomatic presence in the region, with Pompeo announcing plans to open the first-ever U.S. embassy in the Maldives on Wednesday alongside other defense deals. Pompeo used visits to the Maldives and Sri Lanka to slam what he has dubbed China’s “debt-trap diplomacy”—predatory loans on infrastructure projects in both countries. Pompeo is visiting Indonesia today.
The State Department also approved the sale of more than $2 billion in Harpoon missiles to Taiwan this week, leading Beijing to announce sanctions against three major U.S. defense contractors.
Those aren’t the only moves that the United States is making. Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite just wrapped up a trip to the region, stressing that the U.S. military was falling behind in competition with China. He traveled through Japan, Singapore, Guam, and Palau—a tiny island that has asked the Pentagon to build bases, ports, and airfields to counter Beijing. “It is an unbelievable threat to our way of life,” Braithwaite said during the trip, which he also used to articulate Chinese military threats in the Arctic.
Pompeo, Esper, and Braithwaite could all be lame ducks by next week, but their pre-election moves are likely to outlive the administration if Trump loses. In an interview with CBS 60 Minutes last week, Biden called China the greatest geopolitical competitor to the United States, and so far his policy to contain Beijing sounds like more of the same.
“People in Beijing may be nervous about Joe Biden because they recognize that he is going to work with allies,” Jeffrey Prescott, a Biden advisor, told Axios. That doesn’t sound like an administration that would reverse Trump’s moves—but one that might make them enduring.
What We’re Watching
The new abnormal. A specter of violence hangs over the U.S. elections as political polarization surges across the country. The International Crisis Group has issued a new report analyzing the risks of violence during or immediately after the election, and warning that the polarization has fostered “an environment in which non-state groups, cells and actors, some of whom adopt paramilitary trappings, pose an increasing security risk.”
This is the first time that the International Crisis Group, which usually focuses on fragile states and war-torn countries, has issued such a report on the United States. Earlier this month, members of a right-wing terror group were detained after allegedly plotting to storm the state’s capitol and kidnap Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster was also on the group’s target list, according to a new report.
Offensive on defense. Focused on defeating Trump, progressive and centrist Democrats have largely paused their policy feuds ahead of the 2020 elections. But if the Democrats take the White House and Senate, there is a fight brewing over defense spending. Progressives are expected to renew a push for deep defense spending cuts, as Politico’s Connor O’Brien reports.
“This will be a top priority of the progressive caucus—to really get some meaningful budget cuts in Pentagon spending this next cycle,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said earlier this month.
Mis-accountability. The Pentagon has released a new report on the campaign against the Islamic State—Operation Inherent Resolve—that found the U.S.-led coalition conducted 34,917 strikes since the operation began in August 2014. In that time, the Pentagon reports that strikes unintentionally killed at least 1,410 civilians.
Human rights groups have consistently accused the coalition of undercounting civilian casualties. Independent investigators estimate that the number of civilians killed by U.S.-led actions in Iraq and Syria totals between 8,320 and 13,247 over the course of six years.
Movers and Shakers
State Department move. Nicholas Kass took over on Monday as a deputy assistant secretary of state overseeing Africa, Asia, and Design, Monitoring, and Evaluation at the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations.
Quote of the Week
“I’ve seen more exciting reveals in Scooby-Doo episodes.”
—White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, in reaction to former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff Miles Taylor revealing that he was the official who wrote an anonymous New York Times op-ed describing a resistance within the administration
Foreign Policy Recommends
On the house. When Trump hosted then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida two years ago, the Trump Organization billed U.S. taxpayers for thousands of dollars in expenses, for everything from floral arrangements to the $3 water bottles that the two leaders sipped in bilateral meetings.
A stunning investigation by The Washington Post reveals that the Trump Organization has taken at least $2.5 million out of taxpayer’s pockets since Trump became president, and the company has charged another $5.6 million to his campaign and fundraising committee. The trend has continued even as Trump loses ground in the polls.
Odds and Ends
Consult the manual. The U.S. military is increasingly online, using gaming platforms and especially the popular gaming streaming site Twitch to find new recruits. As gaming news site ShackNews.com reports, the U.S. Navy even has a manual for when Twitch viewers ask Navy streamers about war crimes.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--China Has the V-Shaped Recovery of Which Trump Can Only Dream

China Has the V-Shaped Recovery of Which Trump Can Only Dream This month , China released its third-quarter economic indicators , including a GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent .
The figures confirmed that the country is on track for an economic recovery after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic .
For the whole of 2020 , the IMF forecasts , China ’ s GDP will grow by nearly 2 percent—much lower than last year ’ s 6.1 percent but healthier than the 4 to 8 percent declines expected for the U.S. and eurozone economies .
In fact , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can expect GDP growth at all this year .
Although U.S. President Donald Trump has been touting a V-shaped recovery for the United States , especially after quarterly economic data released this week indicated the start of a rebound after sharp declines , it is China whose economy is actually beginning to climb the hill .
The question is how sustainable the growth is , and what it will mean for the global economy .
China ’ s V-shaped recovery is mostly coming from accelerating industrial production and robust export growth .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustained growth in infrastructure investment and housing construction has also played a role .
In contrast , the West ’ s nascent recovery has been driven more by household consumption financed by government social programs .
That is , the United States is channeling funds directly and indirectly to individual households through unemployment insurance and through support for specific industries such as airlines and restaurants in an effort to protect jobs .
Europe also has comprehensive national programs to sustain employment and income levels .
As a result , retail sales , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Europe have rebounded back to pre-pandemic levels while China has still a ways to go .
In the absence of similar large-scale government social programs , China ’ s consumption growth has been lagging , improving from negative 6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter to negative 1 percent in the third quarter , as reported by the government .
Households spending less is not surprising ; China ’ s unemployment insurance and welfare programs have cushioned those working in government and medium- to large-scale enterprises , but tens of millions of migrant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been forced to return to their home provinces to find temporary employment .
At the same time , China ’ s draconian handling of the pandemic facilitated a sharper industrial supply response .
Its manufacturing sector is now back to full capacity , while industrial output in the United States and Europe is still significantly below end-2019 levels as firms grapple with ongoing disease outbreaks .
China also benefited , at least initially , from strong demand in the United States and Europe for COVID-19 related products such as surgical masks and ventilators @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shifted to electronics and communication equipment for households operating under lockdowns .
Finally , in recent months , demand has risen for a broader range of industrial products that other countries have been unable to fulfill because of pandemic related disruptions .
According to Chinese government statistics , since late spring , monthly export growth rates have ranged from 15 to 40 percent for medical supplies , electronics , and home furnishings .
That boom in exports helped drive industrial value-added growth to nearly 7 percent in September .
At the same time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tepid , thanks to depressed household consumption .
That means China ’ s current account surplus ( the inverse of other countries ’ trade deficits with China ) will likely be more than double last year .
This is mirrored in the sharp appreciation of the renminbi to the U.S. dollar by 7 percent since May .
And that begs a few questions : Will China ’ s recovery—based on industrial expansion and larger trade surpluses—exacerbate economic tensions with the United States ?
Will the pandemic experience reinforce or discourage sentiments to restructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of the U.S.-Chinese trade war ?
And will China be able to sustain a relatively high growth rate for the medium-term once the pandemic is brought under control globally ?
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections , the structure of China ’ s economic recovery will aggravate ongoing trade war tensions , even if its success was not the result of an attempt to harm the West but was a consequence of Beijing ’ s well-coordinated steps to control the pandemic and restart its manufacturing sector .
But with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ principles tell us that with soaring U.S. government budgetary deficits and increased borrowing among households , the U.S. trade deficit will rise over the next few years .
That fact will sustain the blame game and intensify sentiments that Beijing ’ s state-run economy is taking advantage of the pandemic to advance its economic interests .
At the same time , the pandemic has made a trade war and the restructuring of supply chains away from China more difficult .
The pandemic was initially seen as yet another reason to reduce dependency on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on top of the goods that were the target of the tariffs levied by the White House last year .
But China ’ s export surge has now extended well beyond pandemic-related items to a much broader range of products .
Any shift of supply chains out of China will now by necessity be more gradual than previous plans .
As analyzed by the consulting firm , Gavekal : “ China has a wide and deep pool of labor , excellent infrastructure , dense networks of suppliers , and an effective government that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it very difficult to relocate production elsewhere .
Possible alternatives like Vietnam or India , either lack the size or ecosystem to duplicate China ’ s capacity to assemble and ship rapidly manufactures to global markets .
An American Chamber of Commerce survey of U.S. companies in China conducted in May found that in the midst of the pandemic , just 2 percent of respondents were considering leaving the Chinese market in the next 3-5 years , and a mere 4 percent were considering relocating some or all manufacturing out of China .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential election next week , that could change .
But even if political pressure means some regionalization of supply networks , continued investments into China are likely to be the norm rather than the exception for the medium term .
In the long term , though , China ’ s recovery has not eliminated the uncertainties surrounding its longer-term growth prospects .
Growth has been slowing steadily for the past decade , and the country ’ s economic prospects have been dampened further by the trade and technology war with the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a new so-called dual circulation growth strategy which party media pronounce as “ a new development pattern in which domestic and foreign markets boost each other , with the domestic market as the mainstay.
” The forthcoming 14th Five-Year Plan , to be endorsed at the end-October meeting of the Party ’ s Central Committee , is expected to crystallize this policy and will prescribe a multitude of programs and initiatives .
New rhetoric aside , most of them are likely to be a continuation of past policies , such as freeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ migration policies and promoting more investments in hi-tech industries .
But strategies that worked well when growth was in the double digits a decade ago need to be reconsidered when that growth has hit the single digits .
Today , the concern is not about producing more , be it laptops or highways , but about being more productive : making more with the same amount of investment .
Indeed , the returns on China ’ s overall investments have been declining steadily and are now half of what they were a decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improve the efficacy of public investments or the performance of state-owned enterprises , for example , China ’ s growth rate will continue to decline over the coming years—and more rapidly than before if the U.S. and China do decouple .

This month, China released its third-quarter economic indicators , including a GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent. The figures confirmed that the country is on track for an economic recovery after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the whole of 2020, the IMF forecasts , China’s GDP will grow by nearly 2 percent—much lower than last year’s 6.1 percent but healthier than the 4 to 8 percent declines expected for the U.S. and eurozone economies. In fact, China is the only major economy that can expect GDP growth at all this year.
This month, China released its third-quarter economic indicators, including a GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent. The figures confirmed that the country is on track for an economic recovery after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the whole of 2020, the IMF forecasts, China’s GDP will grow by nearly 2 percent—much lower than last year’s 6.1 percent but healthier than the 4 to 8 percent declines expected for the U.S. and eurozone economies. In fact, China is the only major economy that can expect GDP growth at all this year.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump has been touting a V-shaped recovery for the United States, especially after quarterly economic data released this week indicated the start of a rebound after sharp declines, it is China whose economy is actually beginning to climb the hill. The question is how sustainable the growth is, and what it will mean for the global economy.
China’s V-shaped recovery is mostly coming from accelerating industrial production and robust export growth. To a lesser extent, more modest but sustained growth in infrastructure investment and housing construction has also played a role. In contrast, the West’s nascent recovery has been driven more by household consumption financed by government social programs. That is, the United States is channeling funds directly and indirectly to individual households through unemployment insurance and through support for specific industries such as airlines and restaurants in an effort to protect jobs. Europe also has comprehensive national programs to sustain employment and income levels. As a result, retail sales, for example, in the United States and Europe have rebounded back to pre-pandemic levels while China has still a ways to go.
In the absence of similar large-scale government social programs, China’s consumption growth has been lagging, improving from negative 6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter to negative 1 percent in the third quarter, as reported by the government. Households spending less is not surprising; China’s unemployment insurance and welfare programs have cushioned those working in government and medium- to large-scale enterprises, but tens of millions of migrant workers lack formal protection and many have been forced to return to their home provinces to find temporary employment.
At the same time, China’s draconian handling of the pandemic facilitated a sharper industrial supply response. Its manufacturing sector is now back to full capacity, while industrial output in the United States and Europe is still significantly below end-2019 levels as firms grapple with ongoing disease outbreaks. China also benefited, at least initially, from strong demand in the United States and Europe for COVID-19 related products such as surgical masks and ventilators. Over the summer, that demand shifted to electronics and communication equipment for households operating under lockdowns. Finally, in recent months, demand has risen for a broader range of industrial products that other countries have been unable to fulfill because of pandemic related disruptions. According to Chinese government statistics, since late spring, monthly export growth rates have ranged from 15 to 40 percent for medical supplies, electronics, and home furnishings. That boom in exports helped drive industrial value-added growth to nearly 7 percent in September.
At the same time, Chinese demand for imports has been tepid, thanks to depressed household consumption. That means China’s current account surplus (the inverse of other countries’ trade deficits with China) will likely be more than double last year. This is mirrored in the sharp appreciation of the renminbi to the U.S. dollar by 7 percent since May.
And that begs a few questions: Will China’s recovery—based on industrial expansion and larger trade surpluses—exacerbate economic tensions with the United States? Will the pandemic experience reinforce or discourage sentiments to restructure supply chains that were already under stress because of the U.S.-Chinese trade war? And will China be able to sustain a relatively high growth rate for the medium-term once the pandemic is brought under control globally?
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, the structure of China’s economic recovery will aggravate ongoing trade war tensions, even if its success was not the result of an attempt to harm the West but was a consequence of Beijing’s well-coordinated steps to control the pandemic and restart its manufacturing sector. But with its success will come retribution. Accounting principles tell us that with soaring U.S. government budgetary deficits and increased borrowing among households, the U.S. trade deficit will rise over the next few years. That fact will sustain the blame game and intensify sentiments that Beijing’s state-run economy is taking advantage of the pandemic to advance its economic interests.
At the same time, the pandemic has made a trade war and the restructuring of supply chains away from China more difficult. The pandemic was initially seen as yet another reason to reduce dependency on China—in this case for essential medical supplies on top of the goods that were the target of the tariffs levied by the White House last year. But China’s export surge has now extended well beyond pandemic-related items to a much broader range of products. Any shift of supply chains out of China will now by necessity be more gradual than previous plans. As analyzed by the consulting firm, Gavekal: “China has a wide and deep pool of labor, excellent infrastructure, dense networks of suppliers, and an effective government that coordinates well with business,” making it very difficult to relocate production elsewhere. Possible alternatives like Vietnam or India, either lack the size or ecosystem to duplicate China’s capacity to assemble and ship rapidly manufactures to global markets.
An American Chamber of Commerce survey of U.S. companies in China conducted in May found that in the midst of the pandemic, just 2 percent of respondents were considering leaving the Chinese market in the next 3-5 years, and a mere 4 percent were considering relocating some or all manufacturing out of China. Depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election next week, that could change. But even if political pressure means some regionalization of supply networks, continued investments into China are likely to be the norm rather than the exception for the medium term.
In the long term, though, China’s recovery has not eliminated the uncertainties surrounding its longer-term growth prospects. Growth has been slowing steadily for the past decade, and the country’s economic prospects have been dampened further by the trade and technology war with the United States. Beijing has attempted a course correction with a new so-called dual circulation growth strategy which party media pronounce as “a new development pattern in which domestic and foreign markets boost each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay.” The forthcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, to be endorsed at the end-October meeting of the Party’s Central Committee, is expected to crystallize this policy and will prescribe a multitude of programs and initiatives. New rhetoric aside, most of them are likely to be a continuation of past policies, such as freeing rural land for developments, liberalizing labor migration policies and promoting more investments in hi-tech industries.
But strategies that worked well when growth was in the double digits a decade ago need to be reconsidered when that growth has hit the single digits. Today, the concern is not about producing more, be it laptops or highways, but about being more productive: making more with the same amount of investment. Indeed, the returns on China’s overall investments have been declining steadily and are now half of what they were a decade ago. Unless reforms are taken to improve the efficacy of public investments or the performance of state-owned enterprises, for example, China’s growth rate will continue to decline over the coming years—and more rapidly than before if the U.S. and China do decouple.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-29--Threats and Border Walls Are Destroying the United States’ Biggest Strategic Advantage

Threats and Border Walls Are Destroying the United States ’ Biggest Strategic Advantage This article is part of Election 2020 : What We ’ re Missing , FP ’ s series of daily takes by leading global thinkers on the most important foreign-policy issues not being talked about during the presidential election campaign .
It ’ s a truism : Bounded by oceans and friendly neighbors , the United States is blessed by geography .
Few others could afford the luxury of isolationism as the United States did for two centuries , and no superpower has ever been so secure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States that has historically caused trouble in its backyard .
As the Mexican General Porfirio Díaz once complained : “ Poor Mexico—so far from God , so close to the United States.
” Today , the United States is once again proving a bad neighbor .
President Donald Trump , when he was a candidate , called Mexicans “ criminals ” and “ rapists ” and the country an “ enemy.
” By now , he has turned the southern U.S. border into an international disgrace .
He called Canadian Prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and invoked spurious national security grounds—as if Canada were planning an attack—to slap tariffs on Canadian steel .
Now the shoe seems to be on the other foot : Canada has closed its border to Americans because of U.S. pandemic failures ; in Mexico , the mayor of the border city Juárez has asked the national government to do the same .
It ’ s all so self-defeating—consolidating North America would create a strategic advantage with a monumental payoff .
It ’ s all so self-defeating .
Consolidating North America would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the United States .
Closer cooperation with Mexico and Canada would provide strategic depth for the United States in dealing with illegal immigration and terrorism .
Californians experiencing rolling blackouts would benefit from a regional energy grid .
Businesses in the United States need both high-skilled and low-skilled labor that a coordinated North American immigration policy could provide .
Affordable labor in Mexico can help secure supply chains close to home and removed from exposure to China—for example , to ensure the availability of medical supplies during pandemics .
A common front @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States would be a formidable force in trade negotiations , and an international standard-setter .
These mutually beneficial policies would also mitigate the least discussed and most detrimental potential threat to the United States : Mexico ’ s descent into lawlessness , violence , and instability due to the drug cartel corruption that is poisoning the country .
Local politicians and journalists have been routinely targeted for 15 years , but the arrest earlier this month of Mexican former Defense Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda in Los Angeles on drug and money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Washington .
Not only do Americans , as the main consumers of cartel-supplied drugs , have a moral responsibility and public-health interest in working with Mexico on this issue , but an urgent national security rationale as well .
Canada has much to offer in helping the United States help Mexico .
Working together to strengthen North America as a common foundation for security and prosperity is the biggest opportunity the United States is missing—and one with the greatest penalty for inattention or failure .
The next administration should take note .

It’s a truism: Bounded by oceans and friendly neighbors, the United States is blessed by geography. Few others could afford the luxury of isolationism as the United States did for two centuries, and no superpower has ever been so secure. If anything, it’s the United States that has historically caused trouble in its backyard. As the Mexican General Porfirio Díaz once complained: “Poor Mexico—so far from God, so close to the United States.”
It’s a truism: Bounded by oceans and friendly neighbors, the United States is blessed by geography. Few others could afford the luxury of isolationism as the United States did for two centuries, and no superpower has ever been so secure. If anything, it’s the United States that has historically caused trouble in its backyard. As the Mexican General Porfirio Díaz once complained: “Poor Mexico—so far from God, so close to the United States.”
Today, the United States is once again proving a bad neighbor. President Donald Trump, when he was a candidate, called Mexicans “criminals” and “rapists” and the country an “enemy.” By now, he has turned the southern U.S. border into an international disgrace. He called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “dishonest and weak” and invoked spurious national security grounds—as if Canada were planning an attack—to slap tariffs on Canadian steel. Now the shoe seems to be on the other foot: Canada has closed its border to Americans because of U.S. pandemic failures; in Mexico, the mayor of the border city Juárez has asked the national government to do the same.
It’s all so self-defeating—consolidating North America would create a strategic advantage with a monumental payoff.
It’s all so self-defeating. Consolidating North America would be a strategic advantage with a monumental payoff for the United States.
Closer cooperation with Mexico and Canada would provide strategic depth for the United States in dealing with illegal immigration and terrorism. Californians experiencing rolling blackouts would benefit from a regional energy grid. Businesses in the United States need both high-skilled and low-skilled labor that a coordinated North American immigration policy could provide. Affordable labor in Mexico can help secure supply chains close to home and removed from exposure to China—for example, to ensure the availability of medical supplies during pandemics. A common front by Canada, Mexico, and the United States would be a formidable force in trade negotiations, and an international standard-setter.
These mutually beneficial policies would also mitigate the least discussed and most detrimental potential threat to the United States: Mexico’s descent into lawlessness, violence, and instability due to the drug cartel corruption that is poisoning the country. Local politicians and journalists have been routinely targeted for 15 years, but the arrest earlier this month of Mexican former Defense Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda in Los Angeles on drug and money laundering charges should be a wake-up call to Washington. Not only do Americans, as the main consumers of cartel-supplied drugs, have a moral responsibility and public-health interest in working with Mexico on this issue, but an urgent national security rationale as well. Canada has much to offer in helping the United States help Mexico.
Working together to strengthen North America as a common foundation for security and prosperity is the biggest opportunity the United States is missing—and one with the greatest penalty for inattention or failure. The next administration should take note.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-30--Democratic Socialists Lost, but Their Ideas Have Won

On a hot summer ’ s evening in August 2017 , Jo Beardsmore and Adam Klug , two left-wing activists from the United Kingdom , excitedly got in their car and drove down the California coast , from the apple farm Beardsmore lives on in Mendocino to San Francisco .
They were going to meet one of their idols—Becky Bond , a senior advisor on Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s 2016 campaign for the U.S. presidency .
Beardsmore and Klug had recently been involved with the U.K. general election as part of Momentum , a left-wing campaign group formed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ successful dark-horse run for the Labour Party leadership in 2015 .
At the outset Corbyn had faced odds of 200 to 1 , but he shocked the entire political and media establishment when he won .
Momentum wanted to build a mass movement behind progressive policies and thrust them into the British political mainstream .
It also ended up defending Corbyn ’ s leadership from critics outside , and within , the Labour Party .
Momentum had been vital to the Labour Party ’ s surprise result in the 2017 election earlier that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but come election day had dented the Conservative Party ’ s governing majority while pushing the most progressive policy platform the U.K. had seen from a major party in decades—pledging to increase taxes on high earners , establish public ownership of water and utilities , the abolition of college tuition fees , and increased health care spending .
Many pundits on left and right at the time predicted the Conservative minority government that clung on to power would not last a full term and that Labour was the party in the ascendancy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Momentum co-founder , decided to take time off and went to stay with Beardsmore , who had lived in California since 2015 but remained close to U.K. activists and helped Momentum as a volunteer .
Beardsmore and Klug had been comparing what was happening among the left in the United States with the U.K. , and were taken with a book Bond co-wrote , Rules for Revolutionaries : How Big Organizing Can Change Everything .
“ We both read it at the same time and we were both really struck by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And so we basically decided to track down Becky.
” Bond agreed to meet the two Britons for a drink in San Francisco .
“ I was kind of doing it as a courtesy , ” Bond tells me .
“ But it was such an immediate and strong connection.
” They ended up staying for dinner , then spending the rest of the evening together talking politics and activism .
Over the two days of eager note-sharing , Bond and the two Britons realized they had encountered many of the same challenges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they could learn a lot from each other .
Bond was so enthused by meeting the Britons that just a few weeks later , she decided to travel to the U.K .
Bond and Zack Malitz , who worked on the Sanders campaign , too , decided to use up their frequent-flyer miles and attend an event called The World Transformed in the U.K. , which takes place on the fringe of the Labour Party ’ s annual party conference .
Klug and fellow Momentum co-founder Emma Rees put them up .
Bond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with their British counterparts , sharing experiences and ideas .
A transatlantic alliance of left-wingers had been born .
During the four-day event , Bond met key figures from Momentum , as well as other left-wing activists .
Afterward , Bond and Malitz started holding weekly Zoom meetings with their British counterparts , sharing experiences and ideas .
A transatlantic alliance of left-wingers had been born .
This alliance would have a significant , if underreported , impact on left-wing politics on both sides of the Atlantic .
Momentum activists from the U.K. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Medicare for All ” campaign in the United States—which by the time of the 2020 Democratic primaries was firmly in the mainstream—and share their experiences of trying to influence the Labour Party .
Bond and her colleagues would also mentor the Britons and train staff in “ big organizing ” tactics , contributing to one of the most ambitious canvassing campaigns in British electoral history in the December 2019 U.K. election .
And for a time late last year , as Sanders seemed to be edging toward being the Democratic nominee and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in opinion polls , it looked like two interlinked radical-left movements in both countries might actually win power .
Of course , things didn ’ t turn out that way .
In December 2019 , Corbyn ’ s Labour slumped to a lopsided defeat against the Conservatives and he has since been suspended from his own party .
And Sanders , after becoming the front-runner in the Democratic primaries for a few weeks at the start of 2020 , was thrashed on Super Tuesday .
Despite both movements running huge grassroots operations that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and people not usually engaged with politics , they both failed to deliver on their early promise , leaving the questions : What went wrong , and what comes next ?
Bond ’ s Rules for Revolutionaries came out shortly after Trump won , co-authored by fellow Sanders advisor Zack Exley , who co-founded Justice Democrats , which would later support Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ’ s successful run for Congress .
Meanwhile , Bond and Malitz co-founded the Social Practice , a political consultancy for progressive campaigns and groups , as well as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get radical reformers elected to the office of district attorney in cities such as Philadelphia , Boston , and San Francisco , where in 2019 voters elected Chesa Boudin—a former public defender—whose biological parents were incarcerated when he was a child .
The Real Justice PAC also won in the county that includes Ferguson , Missouri , where police killed Michael Brown in 2014 , sparking mass protests .
Relatively frequent local and midterm races have allowed Bond to hone and test different tactics since 2016 .
And since meeting Beardsmore and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come to Labour ’ s party conference every year .
One of the first fruits of this relationship was what Bond called “ solidarity work ” on the issue of health care .
Bond had been helping the biggest U.S. nurses ’ union , National Nurses United ( NNU ) , which was the first national union to come out in support of Sanders ’ s 2016 run and which had played a central role in his campaign ’ s grassroots activism .
While the NNU and its predecessors had been fighting for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for 30 years , the Sanders campaign offered a slingshot to national viability .
After Sanders lost , the nurses were determined to carry on the fight .
They had a strategy for this ; Bond helped provide the expertise .
And some British activists , including Beardsmore , got directly involved .
Unlike other lobbyists for universal health care , the NNU believed in winning through talking to people face to face .
To help with this , Beardsmore started to train the NNU volunteers in something Momentum had used successfully in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Whereas canvassers traditionally just check which way people are voting and help get the vote out , persuasive-conversation training aims to turn first-time canvassers into effective persuaders at lightning speed .
Momentum ’ s use of this approach in the 2017 election was widely credited with scoring Labour victories in close parliamentary races , as well as places where it was supposed not to have a chance .
While the NNU ’ s activists were already using their personal stories as nurses before they ever heard of Momentum , each time there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or the United States , the strategy takes on a new iteration and tactics are tweaked , then shared back-and-forth .
Building solidarity between the two countries is also key .
Bond told me that U.K. phone banks have even been used to call Americans to dispel myths about the National Health Service—the publicly funded British health system—and demonstrate that it isn ’ t some impossible dream .
After Sanders failed to win the Democratic Party nomination in 2016 and Donald Trump won the presidency , the people behind Sanders ’ s campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ movement they built just disappear .
In February 2018 , just six months after the two sides first met , Momentum co-founders Rees and Klug went to the United States to see the NNU in action , share lessons from the U.K. , and give workshops .
During their trip , the pair also traveled to Texas to experience Beto O ’ Rourke ’ s wild-card run for the Senate against Ted Cruz .
The Britons attended a Real Justice PAC event in Dallas where left-wing activist , journalist , and Real Justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge crowd , predominantly people of color , to the event at short notice .
Rees recalls that King asked how many in the audience had a close friend or family member incarcerated , and nearly everybody put their hand up .
He then asked how many people were angry about this , and received a similar response .
“ And how many people are actually doing something to change that ?
” King said .
Far fewer people put their hands up this time .
By the end of the event , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to volunteer .
While King has been doing this for years , the approach happened to be nearly identical to what Momentum was doing in the U.K. with the likes of the Guardian columnist Owen Jones signing up volunteers around “ Unseat ” campaigns against specific entrenched right-wing members of Parliament .
Rees and Klug also got to witness the inner workings of the O ’ Rourke campaign .
Malitz , the campaign ’ s field director , built one of the largest grassroots operations ever seen for such a race , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign to phone banks , texts , and direct messaging , as well as in-person canvassing that was distributed to every corner of the state .
Canvassers knocked on nearly 3 million doors , bringing districts previously seen as unwinnable into play .
O ’ Rourke came very close to unseating Cruz , something seen as impossible at the start of the contest .
( This November , Texas could turn blue in the presidential race ; polls show Trump and former Vice President Biden to be neck and neck . )
Ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during 2019 , Momentum hugely expanded its operations from the small team that had fought the 2017 election , moving to larger offices nearer to central London to accommodate many more staff and volunteers at its headquarters .
Bond came to the U.K. half a dozen times last year .
And in September 2019 , when it looked the Conservatives would call an election in the U.K. at any moment , Bond was on a Zoom call with Momentum staff—advising the Britons on small-donation fundraising and not to be shy about asking for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fly over to help in person .
Bond got on a plane to London and arrived at Momentum ’ s headquarters on the eve of the general election campaign .
Apart from wanting to help Momentum , Bond knew that she could learn a lot from the U.K. election—to American campaigners , votes in Britain could feel like a dry run for the United States , particularly after how quickly the shock of Brexit was followed by Trump ’ s 2016 victory .
Tactics witnessed in Texas directly influenced the launch of such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asked supporters to take a week off work to volunteer .
Momentum ’ s co-founders went to the United States to share lessons from the U.K. During their trip , the pair also traveled to Texas to experience Beto O ’ Rourke ’ s wild-card run for the Senate against Ted Cruz .
Bond helped newly hired junior organizers manage volunteers on Slack—of whom there were more than 4,000 by the end of the campaign .
Bond also had long discussions with the tech team behind My Campaign Map , a website Momentum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more rudimentary version of the tool in the 2017 election had sent volunteers to their nearest constituency with a close race .
Now My Campaign Map aimed to avoid bottlenecks of activists and distribute them around different tight races , as well as enable cross-country trips to districts lacking volunteers .
But there were challenges .
Unlike Momentum , the main Labour Party was not well prepared for the election .
Bond points out that Labour ’ s dialer , the system for calling voters , was not up and running in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Labour Party had also been riven by infighting in the months preceding the election .
This was partly due to centrists ’ never having accepted Labour ’ s leftward turn ; also partly to blame was Corbyn ’ s problematic leadership .
He struggled to get a grip on the anti-Semitism crisis plaguing the party and dithered over calls for a second Brexit referendum .
Although Labour did climb in the polls as the campaign advanced , there was a sense of inevitability as Election Day loomed .
In the final televised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Boris Johnson , which I watched on a big screen at Momentum ’ s offices , some of the Momentum staff were audibly exasperated that Corbyn didn ’ t go in for the kill .
At one point , Corbyn called out Johnson for past “ racist remarks ” made in newspaper columns , but he avoided personally attacking him .
A snap poll after the debate found that voters thought Corbyn was more trustworthy , but Johnson was more “ Prime Ministerial.
” By Dec. 13 , 2019 , Labour was defeated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out in a Tory landslide .
Corbyn announced he would step down once a new leader was chosen .
In 2020 , Sanders supporters in the United States were also disappointed when he lost to Biden .
Progressives on both sides of the pond had been beaten back .
There are big differences .
Sanders did not preside over crises like Corbyn ’ s Labour—especially anti-Semitism and the question of Brexit .
Sanders also didn ’ t have to manage the challenge of being leader of the party .
But ultimately both movements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bases , and the promised boosts in turnout from people who don ’ t usually vote did not materialize .
Campaigns to unseat both establishment incumbents in the Democratic Party and vulnerable Republicans have proliferated .
Momentum ’ s persuasive-conversation techniques were used in both Sanders ’ s and Sen. Elizabeth Warren ’ s presidential primary campaigns this year .
But , as Momentum ’ s My Campaign Map showed , big structural challenges remain .
“ I think the tools basically did their job , ” Jan Baykara said of the canvassing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigger issue was getting people out of London.
” This was why they introduced a feature to organize road trips .
“ It was literally trying to get thousands of people to move home for a couple of weeks , ” Baykara said .
But both the Labour Party and Momentum only realized too late that mobilization wasn ’ t happening in the places they really needed .
Community organizing is a “ years long project , not a six week thing , ” Baykara said .
The focus now should be on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Momentum seems to recognize .
When the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the U.K. , My Campaign Map was retrofitted to enable volunteer groups to help those in need , and now enables users to search for and join local campaign groups on a number of issues—Momentum just launched a grassroots initiative against the wave of evictions coming in the wake of the pandemic .
Despite the electoral setbacks , there are some small victories .
Sanders may not have won the nomination , but his movement is pushing the Democrats leftward .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ released after Biden eclipsed Sanders , showed a lot of progressive influence .
Even on foreign policy , Sanders ’ s advisor Matt Duss has said that Biden has clearly moved to the left .
On this and other issues such as the Green New Deal , Biden has faced progressive mobilization in a way that former President Barack Obama almost never did during his eight years as president .
The picture is arguably a little different in the U.K. Keir Starmer became the new leader of the Labour Party in April , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ progressive policy platform .
Since then , some on Labour ’ s left have been dismayed at what they perceive as a managed drift to the right .
Starmer ’ s cabinet is certainly less left-wing than Corbyn ’ s .
And in his annual Labour conference speech , he pitched so-called red wall voters who had turned Conservative by promising to put “ family first ” and emphasizing patriotism and security .
While the British public clearly disliked Corbyn , Labour ’ s progressive policies were popular when put individually to voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.K. slips into a post-pandemic recession .
Starmer has also prevaricated on the progressive platform of his leadership campaign—key pledges already at risk include the tax increase on top earners and public ownership of rail , mail , water , and energy .
One of Labour ’ s key backers , the trade union Unite , has since said that it will reduce its contributions to the party and distribute it to other left-wing groups , a clear warning shot to Starmer .
It ’ s true that Labour has recovered in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when compared to Boris Johnson ’ s are far better than Corbyn ’ s .
But amid the government ’ s chaotic handling of the COVID-19 outbreak , Labour are still slightly behind the Conservatives in an average of polls .
And the fact is that , while the British public clearly disliked Corbyn , Labour ’ s progressive policies were popular when put individually to voters and could become even more attractive if the U.K. slips into a post-pandemic recession .
On Oct. 29 , Starmer ’ s Labour suspended Corbyn from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Equality and Human Rights Commission condemned Labour ’ s handling of anti-Semitism .
The reason for the suspension was Corbyn ’ s statement , which largely accepted the report ’ s findings but said the scale of the problem had been “ dramatically overstated for political reasons by our opponents inside and outside the party.
” The left of the party is now reeling from the suspension and how to react .
Still , left-wingers and socialists have a stronger base now within the Labour Party and Democratic Party than they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to protect their hard-won gains on either side of the pond—especially given the growing popularity among voters of many left-wing policies .
But most will agree that the immediate task is to mount the most robust opposition possible to the right-wing governments of the United States and the U.K , which are both taking their old democracies into uncharted waters with every new authoritarian twitch they make .

On a hot summer’s evening in August 2017, Jo Beardsmore and Adam Klug, two left-wing activists from the United Kingdom, excitedly got in their car and drove down the California coast, from the apple farm Beardsmore lives on in Mendocino to San Francisco. They were going to meet one of their idols—Becky Bond, a senior advisor on Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2016 campaign for the U.S. presidency.
On a hot summer’s evening in August 2017, Jo Beardsmore and Adam Klug, two left-wing activists from the United Kingdom, excitedly got in their car and drove down the California coast, from the apple farm Beardsmore lives on in Mendocino to San Francisco. They were going to meet one of their idols—Becky Bond, a senior advisor on Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2016 campaign for the U.S. presidency.
Beardsmore and Klug had recently been involved with the U.K. general election as part of Momentum, a left-wing campaign group formed in the wake of Jeremy Corbyn’s successful dark-horse run for the Labour Party leadership in 2015. At the outset Corbyn had faced odds of 200 to 1, but he shocked the entire political and media establishment when he won. Momentum wanted to build a mass movement behind progressive policies and thrust them into the British political mainstream. It also ended up defending Corbyn’s leadership from critics outside, and within, the Labour Party.
Momentum had been vital to the Labour Party’s surprise result in the 2017 election earlier that summer. Labour started 20 points behind, but come election day had dented the Conservative Party’s governing majority while pushing the most progressive policy platform the U.K. had seen from a major party in decades—pledging to increase taxes on high earners, establish public ownership of water and utilities, the abolition of college tuition fees, and increased health care spending. Many pundits on left and right at the time predicted the Conservative minority government that clung on to power would not last a full term and that Labour was the party in the ascendancy.
After the election, Klug, a Momentum co-founder, decided to take time off and went to stay with Beardsmore, who had lived in California since 2015 but remained close to U.K. activists and helped Momentum as a volunteer. Beardsmore and Klug had been comparing what was happening among the left in the United States with the U.K., and were taken with a book Bond co-wrote, Rules for Revolutionaries: How Big Organizing Can Change Everything. “We both read it at the same time and we were both really struck by the parallels,” says Beardsmore. “And so we basically decided to track down Becky.”
Bond agreed to meet the two Britons for a drink in San Francisco. “I was kind of doing it as a courtesy,” Bond tells me. “But it was such an immediate and strong connection.” They ended up staying for dinner, then spending the rest of the evening together talking politics and activism. Over the two days of eager note-sharing, Bond and the two Britons realized they had encountered many of the same challenges in building upstart grassroots movements and that they could learn a lot from each other.
Attendees sit under a National Health Service-themed decoration at The World Transformed event on the sidelines of the Labour Party conference in Brighton, England, on Sept. 23, 2017.
Bond was so enthused by meeting the Britons that just a few weeks later, she decided to travel to the U.K. Bond and Zack Malitz, who worked on the Sanders campaign, too, decided to use up their frequent-flyer miles and attend an event called The World Transformed in the U.K., which takes place on the fringe of the Labour Party’s annual party conference. Klug and fellow Momentum co-founder Emma Rees put them up.
Bond and Malitz started holding weekly Zoom meetings with their British counterparts, sharing experiences and ideas. A transatlantic alliance of left-wingers had been born.
During the four-day event, Bond met key figures from Momentum, as well as other left-wing activists. Afterward, Bond and Malitz started holding weekly Zoom meetings with their British counterparts, sharing experiences and ideas. A transatlantic alliance of left-wingers had been born.
This alliance would have a significant, if underreported, impact on left-wing politics on both sides of the Atlantic. Momentum activists from the U.K. would contribute persuasive canvassing techniques to the “Medicare for All” campaign in the United States—which by the time of the 2020 Democratic primaries was firmly in the mainstream—and share their experiences of trying to influence the Labour Party. Bond and her colleagues would also mentor the Britons and train staff in “big organizing” tactics, contributing to one of the most ambitious canvassing campaigns in British electoral history in the December 2019 U.K. election.
And for a time late last year, as Sanders seemed to be edging toward being the Democratic nominee and Corbyn’s Labour started to climb in opinion polls, it looked like two interlinked radical-left movements in both countries might actually win power.
Of course, things didn’t turn out that way.
In December 2019, Corbyn’s Labour slumped to a lopsided defeat against the Conservatives and he has since been suspended from his own party. And Sanders, after becoming the front-runner in the Democratic primaries for a few weeks at the start of 2020, was thrashed on Super Tuesday.
Despite both movements running huge grassroots operations that brought in large numbers of young activists and people not usually engaged with politics, they both failed to deliver on their early promise, leaving the questions: What went wrong, and what comes next?
After Sanders failed to win the Democratic Party nomination in 2016 and Donald Trump won the presidency, the people behind Sanders’s campaign didn’t want to see the movement they built just disappear. Bond and others rallied around two objectives: to do everything possible to defeat Trump in 2020 and to adapt what they’d learned to down-ballot races.
Bond’s Rules for Revolutionaries came out shortly after Trump won, co-authored by fellow Sanders advisor Zack Exley, who co-founded Justice Democrats, which would later support Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s successful run for Congress.
Meanwhile, Bond and Malitz co-founded the Social Practice, a political consultancy for progressive campaigns and groups, as well as the Real Justice PAC, which has aimed to get radical reformers elected to the office of district attorney in cities such as Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, where in 2019 voters elected Chesa Boudin—a former public defender—whose biological parents were incarcerated when he was a child. The Real Justice PAC also won in the county that includes Ferguson, Missouri, where police killed Michael Brown in 2014, sparking mass protests.
Relatively frequent local and midterm races have allowed Bond to hone and test different tactics since 2016. And since meeting Beardsmore and Klug in San Francisco, Bond has come to Labour’s party conference every year.
One of the first fruits of this relationship was what Bond called “solidarity work” on the issue of health care. Bond had been helping the biggest U.S. nurses’ union, National Nurses United (NNU), which was the first national union to come out in support of Sanders’s 2016 run and which had played a central role in his campaign’s grassroots activism.
While the NNU and its predecessors had been fighting for Medicare for All in the United States for 30 years, the Sanders campaign offered a slingshot to national viability. After Sanders lost, the nurses were determined to carry on the fight. They had a strategy for this; Bond helped provide the expertise. And some British activists, including Beardsmore, got directly involved.
Unlike other lobbyists for universal health care, the NNU believed in winning through talking to people face to face. To help with this, Beardsmore started to train the NNU volunteers in something Momentum had used successfully in the 2017 U.K. election: persuasive conversation.
Whereas canvassers traditionally just check which way people are voting and help get the vote out, persuasive-conversation training aims to turn first-time canvassers into effective persuaders at lightning speed. Momentum’s use of this approach in the 2017 election was widely credited with scoring Labour victories in close parliamentary races, as well as places where it was supposed not to have a chance.
While the NNU’s activists were already using their personal stories as nurses before they ever heard of Momentum, each time there’s a campaign in the U.K. or the United States, the strategy takes on a new iteration and tactics are tweaked, then shared back-and-forth. Building solidarity between the two countries is also key. Bond told me that U.K. phone banks have even been used to call Americans to dispel myths about the National Health Service—the publicly funded British health system—and demonstrate that it isn’t some impossible dream.
After Sanders failed to win the Democratic Party nomination in 2016 and Donald Trump won the presidency, the people behind Sanders’s campaign didn’t want to see the movement they built just disappear.
In February 2018, just six months after the two sides first met, Momentum co-founders Rees and Klug went to the United States to see the NNU in action, share lessons from the U.K., and give workshops. During their trip, the pair also traveled to Texas to experience Beto O’Rourke’s wild-card run for the Senate against Ted Cruz. The Britons attended a Real Justice PAC event in Dallas where left-wing activist, journalist, and Real Justice PAC co-founder Shaun King had attracted a huge crowd, predominantly people of color, to the event at short notice.
Rees recalls that King asked how many in the audience had a close friend or family member incarcerated, and nearly everybody put their hand up. He then asked how many people were angry about this, and received a similar response. “And how many people are actually doing something to change that?” King said. Far fewer people put their hands up this time. By the end of the event, much of the audience had been signed up to volunteer.
While King has been doing this for years, the approach happened to be nearly identical to what Momentum was doing in the U.K. with the likes of the Guardian columnist Owen Jones signing up volunteers around “Unseat” campaigns against specific entrenched right-wing members of Parliament.
Rees and Klug also got to witness the inner workings of the O’Rourke campaign. Malitz, the campaign’s field director, built one of the largest grassroots operations ever seen for such a race, adapting the volunteer-run infrastructure of the Sanders campaign to phone banks, texts, and direct messaging, as well as in-person canvassing that was distributed to every corner of the state.
Canvassers knocked on nearly 3 million doors, bringing districts previously seen as unwinnable into play. O’Rourke came very close to unseating Cruz, something seen as impossible at the start of the contest. (This November, Texas could turn blue in the presidential race; polls show Trump and former Vice President Biden to be neck and neck.)
A Labour Party supporter shows off his collection of badges ahead of a speech by Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn at a Momentum rally in Brighton, England, on Sept. 23, 2017.
Ahead of the general election in the U.K. during 2019, Momentum hugely expanded its operations from the small team that had fought the 2017 election, moving to larger offices nearer to central London to accommodate many more staff and volunteers at its headquarters.
Bond came to the U.K. half a dozen times last year. And in September 2019, when it looked the Conservatives would call an election in the U.K. at any moment, Bond was on a Zoom call with Momentum staff—advising the Britons on small-donation fundraising and not to be shy about asking for money—when they asked her if she could fly over to help in person. Bond got on a plane to London and arrived at Momentum’s headquarters on the eve of the general election campaign.
Apart from wanting to help Momentum, Bond knew that she could learn a lot from the U.K. election—to American campaigners, votes in Britain could feel like a dry run for the United States, particularly after how quickly the shock of Brexit was followed by Trump’s 2016 victory.
Tactics witnessed in Texas directly influenced the launch of such initiatives as Labour Legends, where Momentum asked supporters to take a week off work to volunteer.
Momentum’s co-founders went to the United States to share lessons from the U.K. During their trip, the pair also traveled to Texas to experience Beto O’Rourke’s wild-card run for the Senate against Ted Cruz.
Bond helped newly hired junior organizers manage volunteers on Slack—of whom there were more than 4,000 by the end of the campaign. Bond also had long discussions with the tech team behind My Campaign Map, a website Momentum launched to support canvassing efforts. A more rudimentary version of the tool in the 2017 election had sent volunteers to their nearest constituency with a close race. Now My Campaign Map aimed to avoid bottlenecks of activists and distribute them around different tight races, as well as enable cross-country trips to districts lacking volunteers.
But there were challenges. Unlike Momentum, the main Labour Party was not well prepared for the election. Bond points out that Labour’s dialer, the system for calling voters, was not up and running in the first two weeks of the campaign. The Labour Party had also been riven by infighting in the months preceding the election. This was partly due to centrists’ never having accepted Labour’s leftward turn; also partly to blame was Corbyn’s problematic leadership. He struggled to get a grip on the anti-Semitism crisis plaguing the party and dithered over calls for a second Brexit referendum.
Although Labour did climb in the polls as the campaign advanced, there was a sense of inevitability as Election Day loomed. In the final televised debate between Corbyn and incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which I watched on a big screen at Momentum’s offices, some of the Momentum staff were audibly exasperated that Corbyn didn’t go in for the kill. At one point, Corbyn called out Johnson for past “racist remarks” made in newspaper columns, but he avoided personally attacking him. A snap poll after the debate found that voters thought Corbyn was more trustworthy, but Johnson was more “Prime Ministerial.”
By Dec. 13, 2019, Labour was defeated and the gains of 2017 were wiped out in a Tory landslide. Corbyn announced he would step down once a new leader was chosen.
In 2020, Sanders supporters in the United States were also disappointed when he lost to Biden. Progressives on both sides of the pond had been beaten back.
There are big differences. Sanders did not preside over crises like Corbyn’s Labour—especially anti-Semitism and the question of Brexit. Sanders also didn’t have to manage the challenge of being leader of the party. But ultimately both movements failed to reach much beyond their left-wing bases, and the promised boosts in turnout from people who don’t usually vote did not materialize.
Although this transatlantic left alliance would seem to have ended in failure, its impact should not be underestimated. Momentum’s persuasive-conversation techniques were used in both Sanders’s and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential primary campaigns this year—and some elements were almost carbon copies of the persuasive methods at the heart of the Medicare for All campaign that the Britons helped design. (Medicare for All itself was widely seen as the No. 1 talking point in the Democratic debates this election cycle.)
Campaigns to unseat both establishment incumbents in the Democratic Party and vulnerable Republicans have proliferated.
Momentum’s persuasive-conversation techniques were used in both Sanders’s and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential primary campaigns this year.
But, as Momentum’s My Campaign Map showed, big structural challenges remain. “I think the tools basically did their job,” Jan Baykara said of the canvassing website he helped design. “The bigger issue was getting people out of London.” This was why they introduced a feature to organize road trips. “It was literally trying to get thousands of people to move home for a couple of weeks,” Baykara said. But both the Labour Party and Momentum only realized too late that mobilization wasn’t happening in the places they really needed.
Community organizing is a “years long project, not a six week thing,” Baykara said. The focus now should be on community power, not just election cycles—something that Momentum seems to recognize. When the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the U.K., My Campaign Map was retrofitted to enable volunteer groups to help those in need, and now enables users to search for and join local campaign groups on a number of issues—Momentum just launched a grassroots initiative against the wave of evictions coming in the wake of the pandemic.
Despite the electoral setbacks, there are some small victories. Sanders may not have won the nomination, but his movement is pushing the Democrats leftward. The party’s draft policy platform, released after Biden eclipsed Sanders, showed a lot of progressive influence. Even on foreign policy, Sanders’s advisor Matt Duss has said that Biden has clearly moved to the left. On this and other issues such as the Green New Deal, Biden has faced progressive mobilization in a way that former President Barack Obama almost never did during his eight years as president.
The picture is arguably a little different in the U.K. Keir Starmer became the new leader of the Labour Party in April, promising to uphold the party’s progressive policy platform. Since then, some on Labour’s left have been dismayed at what they perceive as a managed drift to the right. Starmer’s cabinet is certainly less left-wing than Corbyn’s. And in his annual Labour conference speech, he pitched so-called red wall voters who had turned Conservative by promising to put “family first” and emphasizing patriotism and security.
While the British public clearly disliked Corbyn, Labour’s progressive policies were popular when put individually to voters and could become even more attractive if the U.K. slips into a post-pandemic recession.
Starmer has also prevaricated on the progressive platform of his leadership campaign—key pledges already at risk include the tax increase on top earners and public ownership of rail, mail, water, and energy. One of Labour’s key backers, the trade union Unite, has since said that it will reduce its contributions to the party and distribute it to other left-wing groups, a clear warning shot to Starmer.
It’s true that Labour has recovered in opinion polls—and Starmer’s personal ratings when compared to Boris Johnson’s are far better than Corbyn’s. But amid the government’s chaotic handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, Labour are still slightly behind the Conservatives in an average of polls. And the fact is that, while the British public clearly disliked Corbyn, Labour’s progressive policies were popular when put individually to voters and could become even more attractive if the U.K. slips into a post-pandemic recession.
On Oct. 29, Starmer’s Labour suspended Corbyn from the party, after a report by the Equality and Human Rights Commission condemned Labour’s handling of anti-Semitism. The reason for the suspension was Corbyn’s statement, which largely accepted the report’s findings but said the scale of the problem had been “dramatically overstated for political reasons by our opponents inside and outside the party, as well as by much of the media.” The left of the party is now reeling from the suspension and how to react.
Still, left-wingers and socialists have a stronger base now within the Labour Party and Democratic Party than they’ve had for decades. Progressives will want to protect their hard-won gains on either side of the pond—especially given the growing popularity among voters of many left-wing policies. But most will agree that the immediate task is to mount the most robust opposition possible to the right-wing governments of the United States and the U.K, which are both taking their old democracies into uncharted waters with every new authoritarian twitch they make.