foreignpolicy--2020-05-12--China Uses Pandemic to Boost Military Pressure on Taiwan

China Uses Pandemic to Boost Military Pressure on Taiwan China has intensified a campaign of military and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan as the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has intensified around the world , according to a congressional report provided to Foreign Policy , as Republicans are pushing the Trump administration to support a closer alliance with the island nation .
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission , a two-decade-old board made up of members appointed by both Democrats and Republicans , is warning that Chinese military forces are engaging in repeated aggressive actions , buzzing the median line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the borders of the mountainous island with fighter aircraft .
The uptick in aggression near embattled Taiwan is likely to further raise tensions between China and the United States that have already been on a high over the spread of the novel coronavirus .
In January , the U.S. Department of Defense asked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. , which makes components for the U.S. military ’ s F-35 fighter jet , to begin producing parts in the United States , fearing Chinese interference .
The Pentagon ’ s top official for East Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unofficial visit to the island in November 2019 to examine options to shore up its defenses .
While China ’ s military response appeared to be muted at first , U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other top Defense Department officials have recently raised alarms about Chinese military threats in the South China Sea , including against a Philippine Navy ship and the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat .
In late April , the U.S. Navy conducted two freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea , which Esper told reporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Beijing that [ the United States ] will continue to protect freedom of navigation and commerce ” in the contested waterway .
China has also exerted strenuous diplomatic pressure on Taiwan , the report said , by threatening allies with cutting off all economic ties with Beijing .
Only 14 nations have formal relations with Taiwan , a decision that cuts off countries from having ties with China , though Taipei maintains unofficial links with dozens more United Nations member states .
Meanwhile , the report said that China ’ s diplomatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Organization ( WHO ) , to which the Trump administration controversially suspended funding last month .
Republicans in Congress have also put together a so-called China Task Force led by the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee , Rep. Michael McCaul .
Under pressure from China , WHO has squashed efforts to allow Taiwanese officials to share best practices from its COVID-19 mitigation campaign with other countries , though Taiwan had ramped up testing and began screening travelers before the end of February , ahead of other countries .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical delays in WHO member states ’ receipt of timely and accurate guidance in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic , ” the report said .
“ Had the WHO allowed Taiwan ’ s health experts to share information and best practices in early January , governments around the world could have had more complete information on which to base their public health policies.
” The report also indicates that Taiwan is making potential breakthroughs in researching vaccines and other treatments for the coronavirus , including studies that could speed up the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diagnostic test .
But diplomatic salvos to WHO , including requests for information about atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan , China , were ignored .
Taiwan , an island of 23 million people , had just seven coronavirus-related deaths as of Monday and 440 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus .
Pentagon officials , including the top U.S. Gen. Mark Milley , have said it remains unknown whether the coronavirus emerged from a wet market in China ’ s Hubei province or elsewhere .
Pointedly , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the virus coming from a laboratory in the city of Wuhan , a claim that has been disputed by scientists .
The Trump administration is backing an effort to grant Taiwan observer status at WHO , citing its efforts in quickly containing the pandemic , a move that has gained backing from Canada and New Zealand .
On Monday night , the Senate passed a bill to grant Taiwan nonmember standing in the organization by unanimous consent .
Though Taipei had participatory standing at the world body from 2009 to 2016 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it back would violate the “ One China ” policy that stipulates that Taiwan is part of China , used as a prerequisite for diplomatic relations with Beijing .
Yet the initiative has picked up steam as China has come under intense criticism from U.S. politicians for covering up the extent of the virus early on , and for touting conspiracy theories in March that the U.S. Army was responsible for bringing the virus to Wuhan during the Military World Games in October , a claim that has not been backed up with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new infections there has reached near zero by official tallies , China has appeared to mount a heated counteroffensive , forcing European Union to soften reporting chastising Beijing for spreading disinformation about the pandemic , using a viral YouTube video to call out apparent contradictions in the U.S. response , and upping attacks from Zhao Lijian , a foreign ministry spokesman who has repeatedly told thousands of Twitter followers that the virus did not originate in China .
The criticism has led to a strong push from Republicans in Congress to strengthen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and into bolstering defense ties .
“ Now is the time for a declaratory statement of policy committing the United States to the defense of Taiwan , ” Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher , a member of the new China Task Force on Capitol Hill , wrote in the conservative National Review on Monday .
“ While this approach is not without risk , as we have learned painfully from decades of failed policy toward the CCP , the greatest risk of all comes from complacency .
”

China has intensified a campaign of military and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan as the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has intensified around the world, according to a congressional report provided to Foreign Policy , as Republicans are pushing the Trump administration to support a closer alliance with the island nation.
China has intensified a campaign of military and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan as the spread of the coronavirus pandemic has intensified around the world, according to a congressional report provided to Foreign Policy, as Republicans are pushing the Trump administration to support a closer alliance with the island nation.
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a two-decade-old board made up of members appointed by both Democrats and Republicans, is warning that Chinese military forces are engaging in repeated aggressive actions, buzzing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and tracing the borders of the mountainous island with fighter aircraft.
The uptick in aggression near embattled Taiwan is likely to further raise tensions between China and the United States that have already been on a high over the spread of the novel coronavirus. In January, the U.S. Department of Defense asked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which makes components for the U.S. military’s F-35 fighter jet, to begin producing parts in the United States, fearing Chinese interference. The Pentagon’s top official for East Asia, Heino Klinck, also paid an unofficial visit to the island in November 2019 to examine options to shore up its defenses.
While China’s military response appeared to be muted at first, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other top Defense Department officials have recently raised alarms about Chinese military threats in the South China Sea, including against a Philippine Navy ship and the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat.
In late April, the U.S. Navy conducted two freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, which Esper told reporters aimed “to send a clear message to Beijing that [the United States] will continue to protect freedom of navigation and commerce” in the contested waterway.
China has also exerted strenuous diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, the report said, by threatening allies with cutting off all economic ties with Beijing. Only 14 nations have formal relations with Taiwan, a decision that cuts off countries from having ties with China, though Taipei maintains unofficial links with dozens more United Nations member states.
Meanwhile, the report said that China’s diplomatic pressure has been reinforced by the World Health Organization (WHO), to which the Trump administration controversially suspended funding last month. Republicans in Congress have also put together a so-called China Task Force led by the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul.
Under pressure from China, WHO has squashed efforts to allow Taiwanese officials to share best practices from its COVID-19 mitigation campaign with other countries, though Taiwan had ramped up testing and began screening travelers before the end of February, ahead of other countries.
“Taiwan’s exclusion also contributed to critical delays in WHO member states’ receipt of timely and accurate guidance in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report said. “Had the WHO allowed Taiwan’s health experts to share information and best practices in early January, governments around the world could have had more complete information on which to base their public health policies.”
The report also indicates that Taiwan is making potential breakthroughs in researching vaccines and other treatments for the coronavirus, including studies that could speed up the production of antibodies and a 15-minute rapid diagnostic test. But diplomatic salvos to WHO, including requests for information about atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, were ignored.
Taiwan, an island of 23 million people, had just seven coronavirus-related deaths as of Monday and 440 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. Pentagon officials, including the top U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, have said it remains unknown whether the coronavirus emerged from a wet market in China’s Hubei province or elsewhere. Pointedly, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said “a significant amount of evidence” pointed to the virus coming from a laboratory in the city of Wuhan, a claim that has been disputed by scientists.
The Trump administration is backing an effort to grant Taiwan observer status at WHO, citing its efforts in quickly containing the pandemic, a move that has gained backing from Canada and New Zealand. On Monday night, the Senate passed a bill to grant Taiwan nonmember standing in the organization by unanimous consent.
Though Taipei had participatory standing at the world body from 2009 to 2016, Chinese officials say the decision to bring it back would violate the “One China” policy that stipulates that Taiwan is part of China, used as a prerequisite for diplomatic relations with Beijing.
Yet the initiative has picked up steam as China has come under intense criticism from U.S. politicians for covering up the extent of the virus early on, and for touting conspiracy theories in March that the U.S. Army was responsible for bringing the virus to Wuhan during the Military World Games in October, a claim that has not been backed up with evidence.
But as the rate of the new infections there has reached near zero by official tallies, China has appeared to mount a heated counteroffensive, forcing European Union to soften reporting chastising Beijing for spreading disinformation about the pandemic, using a viral YouTube video to call out apparent contradictions in the U.S. response, and upping attacks from Zhao Lijian, a foreign ministry spokesman who has repeatedly told thousands of Twitter followers that the virus did not originate in China.
The criticism has led to a strong push from Republicans in Congress to strengthen ties with Taiwan, going beyond WHO and into bolstering defense ties.
“Now is the time for a declaratory statement of policy committing the United States to the defense of Taiwan,” Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, a member of the new China Task Force on Capitol Hill, wrote in the conservative National Review on Monday. “While this approach is not without risk, as we have learned painfully from decades of failed policy toward the CCP, the greatest risk of all comes from complacency.”


foreignpolicy--2020-05-12--‘We Are Used to a Virus Called Bombs’

‘We Are Used to a Virus Called Bombs’

‘ We Are Used to a Virus Called Bombs ’ For close to three decades , Somalia has been spinning on a crisis carousel : war , famine , terrorism , climate stress .
Now , the coronavirus pandemic is set to steer the country towards another hemorrhaging of human life .
Even with a youth population above 70 percent , the virus will likely compound Somalia ’ s chronic medley of miseries .
With each passing day , an uneasy question looms large : If the pandemic has left such death and upheaval in its wake in the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact will it have on one of the world ’ s most fragile ?
Few countries are less prepared for a COVID-19 outbreak than Somalia .
And yet , paradoxically , few countries are better prepared for it—not because of health systems or prevention measures , but because of a psychological readiness for catastrophe .
Extreme violence has long been a fact of daily life in Mogadishu , under siege by one of the deadliest terrorist groups in Africa , al-Shabab , which , by conservative estimates , has killed more than 3,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wounded tens of thousands in the past decade .
Somalis , often touted for their resilience amid unrelenting adversity , are no strangers to mass loss of life .
“ It ’ s business as usual here .
We keep hearing about the coronavirus , but Somalis don ’ t take it seriously , ” said Abdirisaq Aden , a local businessman .
“ We are used to a virus called bombs , unfortunately.
” While many are accustomed to explosive , vehicle-borne threats , COVID-19 represents an invisible , airborne threat .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a miniscule testing pool—and 51 deaths have been confirmed .
The true spread is doubtless far worse .
Though cases were first reported in mid-March , the country only received testing equipment almost a month later .
Despite testing far less than its neighbors , Somalia has the highest death toll in East Africa .
On April 17 and 18 , 72 people were tested , out of which 55 were confirmed positive , a staggering 76 percent infection rate .
Since this revelation , the Somali government has stopped sharing the numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Anecdotal accounts of COVID-19 symptoms and a spike in burials abound .
“ There is extraordinary community transmission .
Infections and deaths are out of control , ” explained a Mogadishu doctor on the condition of anonymity .
“ And why visit a hospital if they can ’ t treat you ?
” Somalia ’ s health infrastructure is mere scaffolding : scarce public hospitals struggling with a lack of equipment , unaccredited doctors in private facilities offering unaffordable services , and medication that is as low-grade as it is scarce .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a nation of 15 million .
The doctor-patient ratio in Somalia is among the worst in the world ( about 0.02 per 1,000 people , compared with 2.6 in the United States ) .
There are just 15 intensive care beds for a nation of 15 million , a fact disclosed by the federal Ministry of Health .
Such figures are a damning indictment of governmental priorities in a nation that has notoriously struggled to become a state .
Somalia ’ s best-equipped medical institution , Erdogan Hospital in Mogadishu , was shut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doctors were infected .
Martini Hospital—kitted with 76 beds—is the only medical facility in the whole country designated to treat the infected .
These grim facts coupled with the cultural stigma attached to disease—fears of ostracism and a deep reverence for predestination—means that many are self-treating at home , and many are dying off the radar .
Little is known about the spread of the disease among those living in al-Shabab-controlled territory .
Answers to this acute health crisis lie in part with the government ’ s 2020 budget , which allocated $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mere 2 percent of the national budget .
A whopping $ 146.8 million was reserved for security institutions—a telling indication of a cash-strapped state facing widespread security threats .
There has been no cessation in violence amid the coronavirus .
In April alone , two doctors were shot to death , a doubly tragic event given the severe shortage of medics .
Reports indicate that al-Shabab claimed responsibility for one of the assassinations .
The group heralded the disease as divine punishment for the treatment of Muslims globally .
Weaponizing the disease , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vehicle-borne explosive attack at a military base on the first full day of the holy month .
U.S. airstrikes against the group have grown to an all-time high in recent months .
Africom commander Gen. Stephen Townsend justified this by stating , “ While we might like to pause our operations because of the Coronavirus , the leaders of al-Qaeda , al-Shabaab and ISIS have announced that they see the crisis as an opportunity to further their terrorist agenda so we will continue to stand with and support our African partners.
” Like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and presents risks not only to Somalia but to its pandemic-weakened neighbors , particularly Kenya , which has weathered violent attacks from the group for years .
Born out of a power vacuum itself , al-Shabab will capitalize on lapses in states ’ security apparatus as governments redirect resources from preempting terror attacks to enforcing curfews .
Economic hardships induced by COVID-19 have already fomented anger , which al-Shabab has historically exploited to recruit new members , sow discord , and bolster legitimacy .
All of this risks reversing critical security gains in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s northeastern towns lying on its border with Somalia have been particularly vulnerable to devastating al-Shabab attacks .
In response to the illegal smuggling of people and goods from both Somalia and Ethiopia , Kenyan security authorities have recently ramped up aerial surveillance along its borders , in part , to curtail cross-border infection .
Ethiopia ’ s health minister announced last week that 13 of its new cases were imported via illegal migration from Djibouti and Somalia More than 80 percent of global trade passes through the Gulf of Aden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ livelihoods are shuttered , the resurgence of piracy can be expected , with far-reaching impacts .
In 2013 , the World Bank estimated that piracy cost the global economy $ 18 billion a year .
Meanwhile , long before the pandemic reached its shores , Somalia had been fraught with chronic political instability .
For more than a year now , the central government has been embroiled in a rancorous fight with two of its federal states .
This being an election year , the fledgling Somali state finds itself at a critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether federal elections will be postponed , following in the footsteps of neighboring Ethiopia .
The populations most at risk in Somalia are those living in the densely populated camps scattered across the country .
More than 2.5 million internally displaced people live in these cramped conditions , already weakened by malnutrition and compromised immune systems , and with limited access to clean water , soap , or bathrooms .
Nearly 7 in 10 Somalis live in poverty , and a largely informal economy means social distancing is simply not viable .
Hungry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease .
According to the World Food Programme , the number of food-insecure people in East Africa is projected to reach up to 43 million in the next few months—more than double what it is now—sparking fears of conflict over scarce resources .
The specter of drought and famine , alongside the unforgiving plague of locusts that has ravaged crops in recent months , is worsening the situation .
In just the past week , deadly flash floods have plunged several cities underwater .
The attendant loss of livelihoods will force more people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis and heightening intercommunal tensions even as it spreads the disease further .
Border closures across the region have throttled migration flows , making it ever harder for people to escape conflict or starvation .
This will simply force migration into the shadows , opening up avenues for human trafficking and exploitation .
Irregular movement of refugees has already been observed across the Horn of Africa ’ s highly porous borders .
Restrictions on movement have debilitated social life as well , stoking deep tensions .
During Friday prayers at Mogadishu ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces tried to forcibly disperse a congregation of worshippers without notice .
A massive demonstration broke out , and shoulder-to-shoulder prayers continue across the country today .
Riots swept the streets of Mogadishu again on April 24 in response to the fatal shooting of two innocent civilians by police as they tried to enforce a curfew .
Ramadan , replete with nightly rounds of public taraweeh prayers , is likely to catalyze disease spread in the absence of clear communication with communities and Islamic leaders .
While efforts have been made by some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risks , at least one has been arrested for perpetuating myths about his power to cure it .
As contagion collides head-on with conflict , the Somali government must communicate openly and honestly with its long-suffering citizens—about both infectious and man-made threats .
The government ’ s restrictions on press freedom and access to information about the novel coronavirus to the detriment of its own people has ignited global outrage .
The contradictory reporting of numbers by local governments and the Ministry of Health has raised serious concerns about government misinformation .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Ministry of Health has raised serious concerns about government misinformation .
That the federal government has failed to sufficiently warn and protect its citizens from a deadly threat is neither new nor surprising .
As has often been the case in the disaster-prone country , it will be up to grassroots community groups , the private sector , and members of the diaspora to mobilize en masse to contain the crisis .
Though governments are distracted and resources stretched thin , East African governments must work together to counter the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is crucial to avert regional instability .
It is imperative that the financial support contributed by Somalia ’ s international partners is used transparently and equitably .
Two officials at the Ministry of Health have already been arrested on corruption allegations related to COVID-19 response donations , denting public confidence .
Access to medical services in the country has traditionally been mostly limited to urban areas , with those in far-flung regions who could even afford treatment traveling to the capital city .
With domestic flights suspended , it is all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testing capacity across the country .
This can not be achieved without genuine collaboration between the federal government and its constituent member states .
Somalia has been flirting with existential threats for decades , its people celebrated for their resilience in the face of unrelenting musiibo ( disaster ) .
But this latest shock , stacked on top of many others , may finally put the lie to any notion of Somali resilience .
In what has traditionally been Mogadishu ’ s most blessed yet bloodiest month , one can only hope that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
COVID-19 could well cause more death than any terrorist attack that Somalia has ever seen .

For close to three decades, Somalia has been spinning on a crisis carousel: war, famine, terrorism, climate stress. Now, the coronavirus pandemic is set to steer the country towards another hemorrhaging of human life. Even with a youth population above 70 percent, the virus will likely compound Somalia’s chronic medley of miseries. With each passing day, an uneasy question looms large: If the pandemic has left such death and upheaval in its wake in the world’s most powerful countries, what impact will it have on one of the world’s most fragile?
For close to three decades, Somalia has been spinning on a crisis carousel: war, famine, terrorism, climate stress. Now, the coronavirus pandemic is set to steer the country towards another hemorrhaging of human life. Even with a youth population above 70 percent, the virus will likely compound Somalia’s chronic medley of miseries. With each passing day, an uneasy question looms large: If the pandemic has left such death and upheaval in its wake in the world’s most powerful countries, what impact will it have on one of the world’s most fragile?
Few countries are less prepared for a COVID-19 outbreak than Somalia. And yet, paradoxically, few countries are better prepared for it—not because of health systems or prevention measures, but because of a psychological readiness for catastrophe. Extreme violence has long been a fact of daily life in Mogadishu, under siege by one of the deadliest terrorist groups in Africa, al-Shabab, which, by conservative estimates, has killed more than 3,000 people in the past five years and wounded tens of thousands in the past decade. Somalis, often touted for their resilience amid unrelenting adversity, are no strangers to mass loss of life.
“It’s business as usual here. We keep hearing about the coronavirus, but Somalis don’t take it seriously,” said Abdirisaq Aden, a local businessman. “We are used to a virus called bombs, unfortunately.”
While many are accustomed to explosive, vehicle-borne threats, COVID-19 represents an invisible, airborne threat. As of Monday, 1,054 infections—out of a miniscule testing pool—and 51 deaths have been confirmed. The true spread is doubtless far worse. Though cases were first reported in mid-March, the country only received testing equipment almost a month later. Despite testing far less than its neighbors, Somalia has the highest death toll in East Africa. On April 17 and 18, 72 people were tested, out of which 55 were confirmed positive, a staggering 76 percent infection rate. Since this revelation, the Somali government has stopped sharing the numbers of people tested with the public.
Anecdotal accounts of COVID-19 symptoms and a spike in burials abound. “There is extraordinary community transmission. Infections and deaths are out of control,” explained a Mogadishu doctor on the condition of anonymity. “And why visit a hospital if they can’t treat you?” Somalia’s health infrastructure is mere scaffolding: scarce public hospitals struggling with a lack of equipment, unaccredited doctors in private facilities offering unaffordable services, and medication that is as low-grade as it is scarce. There are just 15 intensive care beds for a nation of 15 million. The doctor-patient ratio in Somalia is among the worst in the world (about 0.02 per 1,000 people, compared with 2.6 in the United States). There are just 15 intensive care beds for a nation of 15 million, a fact disclosed by the federal Ministry of Health. Such figures are a damning indictment of governmental priorities in a nation that has notoriously struggled to become a state.
Somalia’s best-equipped medical institution, Erdogan Hospital in Mogadishu, was shut down in April after 3 of its doctors were infected. Martini Hospital—kitted with 76 beds—is the only medical facility in the whole country designated to treat the infected. These grim facts coupled with the cultural stigma attached to disease—fears of ostracism and a deep reverence for predestination—means that many are self-treating at home, and many are dying off the radar. Little is known about the spread of the disease among those living in al-Shabab-controlled territory.
Answers to this acute health crisis lie in part with the government’s 2020 budget, which allocated $9.4 million for health spending, a mere 2 percent of the national budget. A whopping $146.8 million was reserved for security institutions—a telling indication of a cash-strapped state facing widespread security threats.
There has been no cessation in violence amid the coronavirus. In April alone, two doctors were shot to death, a doubly tragic event given the severe shortage of medics. Reports indicate that al-Shabab claimed responsibility for one of the assassinations.
The group heralded the disease as divine punishment for the treatment of Muslims globally. Weaponizing the disease, al-Shabab ushered in Ramadan with an attempted vehicle-borne explosive attack at a military base on the first full day of the holy month.
U.S. airstrikes against the group have grown to an all-time high in recent months. Africom commander Gen. Stephen Townsend justified this by stating, “While we might like to pause our operations because of the Coronavirus, the leaders of al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab and ISIS have announced that they see the crisis as an opportunity to further their terrorist agenda so we will continue to stand with and support our African partners.”
Born out of a power vacuum itself, al-Shabab will capitalize on lapses in states’ security apparatus.Like the virus, al-Shabab transcends national borders and presents risks not only to Somalia but to its pandemic-weakened neighbors, particularly Kenya, which has weathered violent attacks from the group for years. Born out of a power vacuum itself, al-Shabab will capitalize on lapses in states’ security apparatus as governments redirect resources from preempting terror attacks to enforcing curfews. Economic hardships induced by COVID-19 have already fomented anger, which al-Shabab has historically exploited to recruit new members, sow discord, and bolster legitimacy. All of this risks reversing critical security gains in Somalia and destabilizing the region.
Kenya’s northeastern towns lying on its border with Somalia have been particularly vulnerable to devastating al-Shabab attacks. In response to the illegal smuggling of people and goods from both Somalia and Ethiopia, Kenyan security authorities have recently ramped up aerial surveillance along its borders, in part, to curtail cross-border infection. Ethiopia’s health minister announced last week that 13 of its new cases were imported via illegal migration from Djibouti and Somalia
More than 80 percent of global trade passes through the Gulf of Aden, a vital waterway cradling Somalia. As livelihoods are shuttered, the resurgence of piracy can be expected, with far-reaching impacts. In 2013, the World Bank estimated that piracy cost the global economy $18 billion a year.
Meanwhile, long before the pandemic reached its shores, Somalia had been fraught with chronic political instability. For more than a year now, the central government has been embroiled in a rancorous fight with two of its federal states. This being an election year, the fledgling Somali state finds itself at a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether federal elections will be postponed, following in the footsteps of neighboring Ethiopia.
Undoubtedly, this health emergency will be accompanied by a humanitarian emergency. The disappearance of remittances—a lifeline for millions on the continent and estimated at $1.4 to $2 billion annually in Somalia alone—makes the situation all the more desperate. These critical cash flows have dried up as a global recession sets in and incomes of workers in the diaspora shrink. Aggravating the situation, harrowing statistics from across Europe show that Somali communities have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19. In Sweden, Somalis are dying from the virus at “an astonishing high rate” according to the BMJ despite accounting for only 0.69 percent of the population. The World Bank is calling on governments to designate remittance companies as an essential service, a crucial step to easing restrictions on these financial flows.
The populations most at risk in Somalia are those living in the densely populated camps scattered across the country. More than 2.5 million internally displaced people live in these cramped conditions, already weakened by malnutrition and compromised immune systems, and with limited access to clean water, soap, or bathrooms. Nearly 7 in 10 Somalis live in poverty, and a largely informal economy means social distancing is simply not viable. Hungry people cannot afford to hide from disease. According to the World Food Programme, the number of food-insecure people in East Africa is projected to reach up to 43 million in the next few months—more than double what it is now—sparking fears of conflict over scarce resources.
The specter of drought and famine, alongside the unforgiving plague of locusts that has ravaged crops in recent months, is worsening the situation. In just the past week, deadly flash floods have plunged several cities underwater. The attendant loss of livelihoods will force more people to move, compounding the internal displacement crisis and heightening intercommunal tensions even as it spreads the disease further.
Border closures across the region have throttled migration flows, making it ever harder for people to escape conflict or starvation. This will simply force migration into the shadows, opening up avenues for human trafficking and exploitation. Irregular movement of refugees has already been observed across the Horn of Africa’s highly porous borders.
Restrictions on movement have debilitated social life as well, stoking deep tensions. During Friday prayers at Mogadishu’s Marwazi mosque on April 10, armed forces tried to forcibly disperse a congregation of worshippers without notice. A massive demonstration broke out, and shoulder-to-shoulder prayers continue across the country today. Riots swept the streets of Mogadishu again on April 24 in response to the fatal shooting of two innocent civilians by police as they tried to enforce a curfew. Ramadan, replete with nightly rounds of public taraweeh prayers, is likely to catalyze disease spread in the absence of clear communication with communities and Islamic leaders. While efforts have been made by some religious clerics to promote awareness about COVID-19 risks, at least one has been arrested for perpetuating myths about his power to cure it.
When explosive attacks pound Mogadishu’s streets, it is not uncommon for injured residents to be sent to faraway countries for treatment, the bill footed by patron states. This dependence was always untenable, but such Band-Aid solutions are now impossible in the age of COVID-19 due to international border shutdowns. The virus demands self-sufficiency. Countries are forced to make do with their own systems, however broken.
As contagion collides head-on with conflict, the Somali government must communicate openly and honestly with its long-suffering citizens—about both infectious and man-made threats. The government’s restrictions on press freedom and access to information about the novel coronavirus to the detriment of its own people has ignited global outrage. The contradictory reporting of numbers by local governments and the Ministry of Health has raised serious concerns about government misinformation. The contradictory reporting of numbers by local governments and the Ministry of Health has raised serious concerns about government misinformation. That the federal government has failed to sufficiently warn and protect its citizens from a deadly threat is neither new nor surprising. As has often been the case in the disaster-prone country, it will be up to grassroots community groups, the private sector, and members of the diaspora to mobilize en masse to contain the crisis.
Though governments are distracted and resources stretched thin, East African governments must work together to counter the spread of disease, violence and starvation. This is crucial to avert regional instability.
It is imperative that the financial support contributed by Somalia’s international partners is used transparently and equitably. Two officials at the Ministry of Health have already been arrested on corruption allegations related to COVID-19 response donations, denting public confidence. Access to medical services in the country has traditionally been mostly limited to urban areas, with those in far-flung regions who could even afford treatment traveling to the capital city. With domestic flights suspended, it is all the more critical to invest in hospital and testing capacity across the country. This cannot be achieved without genuine collaboration between the federal government and its constituent member states.
Somalia has been flirting with existential threats for decades, its people celebrated for their resilience in the face of unrelenting musiibo (disaster). But this latest shock, stacked on top of many others, may finally put the lie to any notion of Somali resilience. In what has traditionally been Mogadishu’s most blessed yet bloodiest month, one can only hope that al-Shabab will ease its Ramadan offensive this year. COVID-19 could well cause more death than any terrorist attack that Somalia has ever seen.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-11--On the Coronavirus, Pakistan’s Government Is Missing in Action

On the Coronavirus , Pakistan ’ s Government Is Missing in Action KARACHI—During a televised broadcast on March 22 , Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed his hesitancy in imposing a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic , explaining that such a move would have devastating economic consequences for the poor .
“ Twenty-five percent of Pakistanis are below the poverty line , ” Khan said .
“ Today if I impose a complete lockdown , then my country ’ s rickshaw drivers , pushcart vendors , taxi drivers , small shopkeepers , daily wage earners … all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ homes.
” In Pakistan , where around 30 percent of the population lives in grave poverty , avoiding catching the coronavirus isn ’ t the only thing on people ’ s minds .
Staving off hunger often comes first .
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic recession the International Monetary Fund predicts will follow it have imperiled the food security of many Pakistanis , and a broader economic collapse and escalating rates of unemployment would only add to the country ’ s poverty .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle this pandemic the best way they know how—through the act of charity .
Given that Pakistan is a state whose tenets are rooted in the Islamic faith , many of its citizens believe that the best way to combat this crisis is through the spirit of altruism .
Pakistan ’ s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle this pandemic the best way they know how—through the act of charity .
The government has launched its own initiatives , including the Ehsaas Program , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rupees ( approximately $ 75 ) to low-income families .
Within a few weeks , the government managed to disburse 55 billion rupees ( about $ 344 million ) to 4.6 million families that registered for the program through a text-message service .
On April 1 , Khan also set up a COVID-19 relief fund ; the premier urged citizens via Twitter to donate funds to help those made destitute by the lockdown .
Meanwhile , local volunteer organizations and ordinary citizens have been using WhatsApp and various social media platforms to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ items including sugar , oil , flour , lentils , and tea , a list that nowadays also includes sanitizer , masks , and soap .
The Human Development Foundation Pakistan , one of the oldest nonprofit development organizations based in the capital , Islamabad , has set out to support 5,000 impoverished families , according to the foundation ’ s CEO , Azhar Saleem .
So far , the organization has provided rations to approximately 14,000 people .
Despite their best intentions , community relief efforts and government schemes such as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have limited results .
Even ordinary citizens have stepped up to the plate , including Omair Shakil , a Pakistani physician and public health expert based in Boston .
Shakil told Foreign Policy that by leveraging the power of social media , he managed to raise over $ 12,000 within two weeks .
He then proceeded to work with vetted organizations and individuals to distribute cash , ration bags , and personal protective equipment to public and private hospitals in need .
But despite their best intentions , community relief efforts and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the COVID-19 relief fund will have limited results .
Reports from those working on the ground indicate that most food and medical aid distribution has been limited to areas near major cities , depriving those living in rural areas .
The latter , whose workers make up most of Pakistan ’ s informal sector and are dependent on daily wages , are more likely to be affected by the stringent lockdown measures .
Further , cash assistance programs like Ehsaas can become vectors of disease transmission , because they require in-person interactions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ requirement for beneficiaries to collect their allotted monies from cash distribution centers carries the risk of community spread of the very disease that the program is meant to curb.
” Moreover , Ehsaas , which only provides monetary assistance to those who register via text message , is not particularly user-friendly , given that many rural families do not own smartphones and don ’ t always know how to claim the relevant benefits .
Such programs only cater to people who can read and understand text messages written in Urdu .
In most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the first language and Pakistan ’ s low literacy rate of 58 percent means that , without assistance , many non-Urdu readers will be unable to access the benefits of Ehsaas .
“ Overall , community organization efforts can only work if citizens and NGOs have the support of the local administration , ” argued Ahsan J. Pirzada , a lawyer who—by his count—raised over 7 million rupees ( $ 44,000 ) through various online platforms and has been delivering ration packets to marginalized groups in Pakistan , including Christians , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The government could at the very least pass an ordinance which makes it easy for community organizations and citizens like me to register and open a bank account where people can donate , ” Pirzada said .
While community relief efforts have provided temporary relief to the poor , they may not be a sustainable option given the protracted length of this pandemic and the uncertainty of future vaccine development .
For a nation that struggles with a weak health care infrastructure and still faces preventable deaths from polio and diarrhea , managing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ challenge .
The Khan administration ’ s blasé attitude came to light when Pakistan ’ s minister of health , Zafar Mirza , erroneously declared on Feb. 19 , that the nation ’ s health care facilities were adequately resourced to tackle any outbreak , just as the pandemic was making its way around the world .
At the time of writing , there are over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan with 667 reported deaths .
It ’ s clear that the preservation of national pride and the government ’ s reputation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The skyrocketing of cases caused by the mishandling of pilgrims returning from Iran in mid-March revealed the complacency of the leadership .
The faulty testing of the pilgrims , who were kept in quarantine near the border with Iran , allowed them to return to their hometowns , where they spread the coronavirus .
Given that Pakistan shares borders with China , Iran , and India—three countries with a high number of reported cases—there was a dire need for effective cross-border cooperation and active health surveillance along the borders .
When the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ piecemeal , exposing the government ’ s lack of swift decision-making .
Even after the application of strict social distancing guidelines , children and young adults—who can be an asymptomatic vector of transmission—continue to line the country ’ s streets playing cricket and socializing at roadside shops .
Meanwhile , health care workers are refusing to come to work , condemning the lack of personal protective equipment provided by the government .
Many health care workers at public hospitals are reportedly paying out of pocket to procure protective gear for themselves , hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adequate testing and protective equipment , there has been a mass undercounting of cases , which has allowed for a faster spread of infections .
The coronavirus pandemic has also underscored the strained relationship between the government and the Islamic establishment .
Unlike other Muslim countries , including Saudi Arabia , Pakistan has not yet imposed a complete ban on mosque sermons and religious gatherings for fear of retaliation from Islamist groups .
Clerics continue to refuse to obey Khan ’ s calls to limit prayer gatherings as thousands of people continue to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a painter who asked to only use his first name , attended a crowded Friday sermon in Karachi last week , explained to me the clerical establishment ’ s motives : “ This unprecedented time is a sign from God that the world has sinned .
I don ’ t understand why the government is trying to halt mosque gatherings , when it ’ s clearly the time for all Muslims to come together in larger groups to atone for our sins.
” Confronting such logic—and getting religious leaders to encourage safe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in many other countries have done—will not be easy .
But Khan must take the bold step of fully implementing a temporary shutdown of all mosques and other religious gatherings during the month of Ramadan to prevent a larger outbreak .
Pakistan is currently tackling one of its biggest challenges since independence .
The coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent lockdown measures have devastated the lives of the country ’ s most vulnerable citizens .
Pakistan does not have sufficient resources and funding to tackle the devastation caused by the lockdown .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can prevent the country from going into a complete state of emergency .
There is an urgent need on the part of the Khan administration , which has so far shown limited involvement with aid programs , to facilitate and support community efforts to ensure that no family is left to go hungry .
More funding must be directed toward procuring protective gear and tests for health care facilities and coronavirus management centers .
Such measures will aid in Pakistan ’ s fight to contain the virus and prevent an economic fallout when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the country is surviving purely on its citizens ’ willingness to give .

KARACHI—During a televised broadcast on March 22, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed his hesitancy in imposing a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, explaining that such a move would have devastating economic consequences for the poor.
KARACHI—During a televised broadcast on March 22, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed his hesitancy in imposing a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, explaining that such a move would have devastating economic consequences for the poor.
“Twenty-five percent of Pakistanis are below the poverty line,” Khan said. “Today if I impose a complete lockdown, then my country’s rickshaw drivers, pushcart vendors, taxi drivers, small shopkeepers, daily wage earners … all of them will be shut in their homes.”
In Pakistan, where around 30 percent of the population lives in grave poverty, avoiding catching the coronavirus isn’t the only thing on people’s minds. Staving off hunger often comes first.
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic recession the International Monetary Fund predicts will follow it have imperiled the food security of many Pakistanis, and a broader economic collapse and escalating rates of unemployment would only add to the country’s poverty.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
Pakistan’s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle this pandemic the best way they know how—through the act of charity. Given that Pakistan is a state whose tenets are rooted in the Islamic faith, many of its citizens believe that the best way to combat this crisis is through the spirit of altruism.
Pakistan’s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle this pandemic the best way they know how—through the act of charity.
The government has launched its own initiatives, including the Ehsaas Program, which has been providing cash assistance of 12,000 rupees (approximately $75) to low-income families. Within a few weeks, the government managed to disburse 55 billion rupees (about $344 million) to 4.6 million families that registered for the program through a text-message service.
On April 1, Khan also set up a COVID-19 relief fund; the premier urged citizens via Twitter to donate funds to help those made destitute by the lockdown.
Meanwhile, local volunteer organizations and ordinary citizens have been using WhatsApp and various social media platforms to make appeals for donations and food—especially essential grocery items including sugar, oil, flour, lentils, and tea, a list that nowadays also includes sanitizer, masks, and soap.
The Human Development Foundation Pakistan, one of the oldest nonprofit development organizations based in the capital, Islamabad, has set out to support 5,000 impoverished families, according to the foundation’s CEO, Azhar Saleem. So far, the organization has provided rations to approximately 14,000 people.
Even ordinary citizens have stepped up to the plate, including Omair Shakil, a Pakistani physician and public health expert based in Boston. Shakil told Foreign Policy that by leveraging the power of social media, he managed to raise over $12,000 within two weeks.
He then proceeded to work with vetted organizations and individuals to distribute cash, ration bags, and personal protective equipment to public and private hospitals in need.
But despite their best intentions, community relief efforts and government schemes such as the Ehsaas Programme and the COVID-19 relief fund will have limited results.
Reports from those working on the ground indicate that most food and medical aid distribution has been limited to areas near major cities, depriving those living in rural areas. The latter, whose workers make up most of Pakistan’s informal sector and are dependent on daily wages, are more likely to be affected by the stringent lockdown measures.
Further, cash assistance programs like Ehsaas can become vectors of disease transmission, because they require in-person interactions. As Shakil noted, “The requirement for beneficiaries to collect their allotted monies from cash distribution centers carries the risk of community spread of the very disease that the program is meant to curb.”
Moreover, Ehsaas, which only provides monetary assistance to those who register via text message, is not particularly user-friendly, given that many rural families do not own smartphones and don’t always know how to claim the relevant benefits. Such programs only cater to people who can read and understand text messages written in Urdu.
In most regions of the country, Urdu is not the first language and Pakistan’s low literacy rate of 58 percent means that, without assistance, many non-Urdu readers will be unable to access the benefits of Ehsaas.
“Overall, community organization efforts can only work if citizens and NGOs have the support of the local administration,” argued Ahsan J. Pirzada, a lawyer who—by his count—raised over 7 million rupees ($44,000) through various online platforms and has been delivering ration packets to marginalized groups in Pakistan, including Christians, the transgender community, and slum-dwellers.
“The government could at the very least pass an ordinance which makes it easy for community organizations and citizens like me to register and open a bank account where people can donate,” Pirzada said.
While community relief efforts have provided temporary relief to the poor, they may not be a sustainable option.
While community relief efforts have provided temporary relief to the poor, they may not be a sustainable option given the protracted length of this pandemic and the uncertainty of future vaccine development.
For a nation that struggles with a weak health care infrastructure and still faces preventable deaths from polio and diarrhea, managing the COVID-19 crisis has been a major challenge.
The Khan administration’s blasé attitude came to light when Pakistan’s minister of health, Zafar Mirza, erroneously declared on Feb. 19, that the nation’s health care facilities were adequately resourced to tackle any outbreak, just as the pandemic was making its way around the world.
At the time of writing, there are over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan with 667 reported deaths. It’s clear that the preservation of national pride and the government’s reputation was the greater priority at the time.
The skyrocketing of cases caused by the mishandling of pilgrims returning from Iran in mid-March revealed the complacency of the leadership. The faulty testing of the pilgrims, who were kept in quarantine near the border with Iran, allowed them to return to their hometowns, where they spread the coronavirus. Given that Pakistan shares borders with China, Iran, and India—three countries with a high number of reported cases—there was a dire need for effective cross-border cooperation and active health surveillance along the borders.
When the lockdown came, implementation was delayed or piecemeal, exposing the government’s lack of swift decision-making. Even after the application of strict social distancing guidelines, children and young adults—who can be an asymptomatic vector of transmission—continue to line the country’s streets playing cricket and socializing at roadside shops.
Meanwhile, health care workers are refusing to come to work, condemning the lack of personal protective equipment provided by the government. Many health care workers at public hospitals are reportedly paying out of pocket to procure protective gear for themselves, hospital cleaners, and security staff. Without adequate testing and protective equipment, there has been a mass undercounting of cases, which has allowed for a faster spread of infections.
The coronavirus pandemic has also underscored the strained relationship between the government and the Islamic establishment. Unlike other Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has not yet imposed a complete ban on mosque sermons and religious gatherings for fear of retaliation from Islamist groups. Clerics continue to refuse to obey Khan’s calls to limit prayer gatherings as thousands of people continue to pack mosques across the country.
Afwan, a painter who asked to only use his first name, attended a crowded Friday sermon in Karachi last week, explained to me the clerical establishment’s motives: “This unprecedented time is a sign from God that the world has sinned. I don’t understand why the government is trying to halt mosque gatherings, when it’s clearly the time for all Muslims to come together in larger groups to atone for our sins.”
Confronting such logic—and getting religious leaders to encourage safe behavior among their followers, as clerics in many other countries have done—will not be easy. But Khan must take the bold step of fully implementing a temporary shutdown of all mosques and other religious gatherings during the month of Ramadan to prevent a larger outbreak.
Pakistan is currently tackling one of its biggest challenges since independence. The coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent lockdown measures have devastated the lives of the country’s most vulnerable citizens. Pakistan does not have sufficient resources and funding to tackle the devastation caused by the lockdown. However, there are ways through which the government can prevent the country from going into a complete state of emergency.
There is an urgent need on the part of the Khan administration, which has so far shown limited involvement with aid programs, to facilitate and support community efforts to ensure that no family is left to go hungry. More funding must be directed toward procuring protective gear and tests for health care facilities and coronavirus management centers. Such measures will aid in Pakistan’s fight to contain the virus and prevent an economic fallout when lockdown is eventually lifted.
For now, the country is surviving purely on its citizens’ willingness to give.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-13--Is Pompeo in Israel to Bless Netanyahu’s Annexation Plan?

Is Pompeo in Israel to Bless Netanyahu ’ s Annexation Plan ?
Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes a quick Israel visit , Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is caught on video railing against federal police , and Afghanistan suffers dual attacks from unknown perpetrators .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Wearing a star-spangled mask , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Israel today for a brief visit .
It is his first international trip since March .
The State Department summary says Pompeo will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Deputy Prime Minister Benny Gantz to “ discuss U.S. and Israeli efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic , as well as regional security issues related to Iran ’ s malign influence.
” Why is he really there ?
In an interview with the pro-Netanyahu Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom , published on Tuesday , the reasoning was clearer .
Pompeo said he would be there to discuss the Trump administration ’ s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan face-to-face .
“ I want to bring them [ Netanyahu and Gantz ] up to speed on the progress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s Vision for Peace , ” he said .
The most pressing issue affecting that peace plan is the impending annexation of the West Bank , which could be up for a vote in Israel ’ s Knesset as soon as July 1 .
Critics say the trip is little more than a chance to bestow the United States ’ blessing on such a move .
In Haaretz , former U.S .
Ambassador to Israel David Shapiro suggested the trip is motivated by “ the desire to coordinate positions ” on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political win for Trump ’ s evangelical and right-wing Jewish base before November ’ s election .
Writing in Foreign Policy in March , Shapiro and his co-authors argued that annexation would permanently jeopardize bipartisan support for Israel in the United States and could imperil U.S. military aid to Israel .
Will Gantz object ?
An April 30 report in Axios suggests that Pompeo will push for Netanyahu and Gantz to formally endorse the White House plan , which allows for further annexation in the context of talks with—and concessions from—the Palestinians .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Gantz likely has reservations .
Writing in FP before the unity government was announced , former U.S. diplomats Dennis Ross and David Makovsky noted that , “ Given [ Gantz ’ s ] beliefs , there may well be an opportunity to reverse some worrying trends in Israel , including on challenges to core Israeli institutions such as the Supreme Court and moves toward West Bank annexation.
” If Gantz doesn ’ t manage to slow the rush to annexation , they argued , the policy “ will make it geographically impossible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ separate entities , leaving one state for two peoples.
” It takes three to tango .
Speaking in early April , Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas again reiterated his government ’ s position , which hasn ’ t changed since the Trump plan was announced in January .
“ No one should delude themselves that they can take advantage of the fact that the world is busy with the coronavirus crisis to violate our rights .
We will not allow anyone to violate our rights.
” A spokesperson for Abbas elaborated further in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no say in legitimizing an Israeli decision regarding the Palestinian territories , or in deciding what happens to them .
The Palestinians are the only ones to decide on the future of their territories.
” Can annexation be stopped ?
Steven Cook , writing in Foreign Policy , notes that the religious and emotional weight given to the West Bank in the eyes of some Israelis is enough to keep the issue coming back again and again , no matter the international objections .
“ Well-meaning members of Congress and analysts overlook an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For a significant number of Israelis ( including officials ) , annexation is an existential issue , and the rest—possibly the majority—either do not care enough about the issue , because to their minds there is no partner for peace , or they are too weak to do anything about it , ” he writes .
Some prominent Israeli military figures disagree ; writing in FP in April , three former high-ranking Israeli security officials argued that annexation would endanger Israel ’ s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and threaten its future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in hot water over video reports .
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was caught on microphone during an April cabinet meeting in the clearest example yet of the president ’ s meddling in the affairs of the country ’ s federal police .
“ They want to fuck with my family , ” the president allegedly said , referring to federal police investigations of his sons in Rio de Janeiro .
He is also alleged to have said he would need to replace the city ’ s police chief to shield his family from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police chief was appointed on May 5 . )
The revelations came from a two-hour video shown in private as part of a federal investigation into Bolsonaro ’ s possible interference with the federal police .
Bolsonaro dismissed the video , saying he had never mentioned the federal police by name and that the video itself should have been destroyed .
Sergio Moro , the former justice minister who resigned two days after the video was recorded , said the video helped confirm his allegations .
Afghan hospital attack .
Gunmen dressed as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including two infants , in an attack on the Dasht-e-Barchi hospital in Kabul .
A separate suicide bombing of a funeral in Nangarhar province killed 26 people .
The Taliban denied responsibility for both attacks .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for the Afghan government and Taliban to use the tragedy as an opportunity to work together .
“ We note the Taliban have denied any responsibility and condemned both attacks as heinous , ” Pompeo said .
“ The Taliban and the Afghan government should cooperate to bring the perpetrators @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s inner circle .
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been admitted to hospital following a positive coronavirus diagnosis .
He is the latest high-profile Russian figure to be infected with the virus after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was diagnosed on April 30 .
Peskov said he last saw President Vladimir Putin “ more than a month ago , ” according to the TASS news agency .
On Tuesday , Russia overtook the United Kingdom as the country with the third-highest recorded number of coronavirus cases , with 232,243 .
Coronavirus spread in Yemen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yemen , after the country ’ s Saudi-backed government reported cases in provinces where none had been recorded to date .
The three southern provinces of Abyan , al-Mahra , and Shabwa all reported their first cases , bringing the country ’ s official total to 65 .
The World Health Organization acknowledged the low number of cases in Yemen in a May 2 statement , but made clear that the coronavirus is likely to be “ actively circulating ” in the war-torn country .
Lesotho ’ s political saga ends .
Lesotho @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is expected to resign from office today , following the collapse of his governing coalition on Monday .
Pressure has grown on Thabane over the past year over his alleged involvement in the murder of his estranged wife in 2017 .
His current wife has been charged in the murder case but Thabane has only been named as a suspect .
An April 20 report from the BBC suggested that Thabane would no longer be under investigation if he left office , however , lawmakers in Lesotho have claimed there has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister .
With much of the wealthy world stuck at home in front of their screens , curious shopping habits are emerging .
According to an analysis of digital retailers by Adobe Analytics , customers seem to be saying no to pants , and embracing the pajama lifestyle .
Pajama sales were up 143 percent between March and April , but sales of pants were down 13 percent .
Despite the shift in habits , they are unlikely to be enough to offset the overall slump in U.S. consumer spending .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get back to normal and for people to feel comfortable heading back to stores , ” Sucharita Kodali , a retail analyst , told CNN .
“ We are in the midst of a recession , possibly a depression .
If there ’ s a nonessential retailer that can thrive in that retail environment , I want to know who they are.
” For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections @ @ @ @ @

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes a quick Israel visit, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is caught on video railing against federal police, and Afghanistan suffers dual attacks from unknown perpetrators.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes a quick Israel visit, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is caught on video railing against federal police, and Afghanistan suffers dual attacks from unknown perpetrators.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Pompeo Heads To Israel With Annexation on Agenda
Wearing a star-spangled mask, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Israel today for a brief visit. It is his first international trip since March.
The State Department summary says Pompeo will meet with Israeli Prime Minister and soon-to-be Deputy Prime Minister Benny Gantz to “discuss U.S. and Israeli efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as regional security issues related to Iran’s malign influence.”
Why is he really there? In an interview with the pro-Netanyahu Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom, published on Tuesday, the reasoning was clearer. Pompeo said he would be there to discuss the Trump administration’s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan face-to-face. “I want to bring them [Netanyahu and Gantz] up to speed on the progress we think we are making on President Trump’s Vision for Peace,” he said.
The most pressing issue affecting that peace plan is the impending annexation of the West Bank, which could be up for a vote in Israel’s Knesset as soon as July 1. Critics say the trip is little more than a chance to bestow the United States’ blessing on such a move. In Haaretz, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Shapiro suggested the trip is motivated by “the desire to coordinate positions” on annexation as well as scoring a domestic political win for Trump’s evangelical and right-wing Jewish base before November’s election.
Writing in Foreign Policy in March, Shapiro and his co-authors argued that annexation would permanently jeopardize bipartisan support for Israel in the United States and could imperil U.S. military aid to Israel.
Will Gantz object? An April 30 report in Axios suggests that Pompeo will push for Netanyahu and Gantz to formally endorse the White House plan, which allows for further annexation in the context of talks with—and concessions from—the Palestinians. While Netanyahu will not need much convincing, Gantz likely has reservations.
Writing in FP before the unity government was announced, former U.S. diplomats Dennis Ross and David Makovsky noted that, “Given [Gantz’s] beliefs, there may well be an opportunity to reverse some worrying trends in Israel, including on challenges to core Israeli institutions such as the Supreme Court and moves toward West Bank annexation.” If Gantz doesn’t manage to slow the rush to annexation, they argued, the policy “will make it geographically impossible for Israelis and Palestinians to create two separate entities, leaving one state for two peoples.”
It takes three to tango. Speaking in early April, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas again reiterated his government’s position, which hasn’t changed since the Trump plan was announced in January. “No one should delude themselves that they can take advantage of the fact that the world is busy with the coronavirus crisis to violate our rights. We will not allow anyone to violate our rights.”
A spokesperson for Abbas elaborated further in a statement. “The United States has no say in legitimizing an Israeli decision regarding the Palestinian territories, or in deciding what happens to them. The Palestinians are the only ones to decide on the future of their territories.”
Can annexation be stopped? Steven Cook, writing in Foreign Policy, notes that the religious and emotional weight given to the West Bank in the eyes of some Israelis is enough to keep the issue coming back again and again, no matter the international objections. “Well-meaning members of Congress and analysts overlook an important fact about the West Bank: For a significant number of Israelis (including officials), annexation is an existential issue, and the rest—possibly the majority—either do not care enough about the issue, because to their minds there is no partner for peace, or they are too weak to do anything about it,” he writes.
Some prominent Israeli military figures disagree; writing in FP in April, three former high-ranking Israeli security officials argued that annexation would endanger Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and threaten its future as a Jewish democracy.
What We’re Following Today
Bolsonaro again in hot water over video reports. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was caught on microphone during an April cabinet meeting in the clearest example yet of the president’s meddling in the affairs of the country’s federal police. “They want to fuck with my family,” the president allegedly said, referring to federal police investigations of his sons in Rio de Janeiro. He is also alleged to have said he would need to replace the city’s police chief to shield his family from investigations. (A new Rio federal police chief was appointed on May 5.)
The revelations came from a two-hour video shown in private as part of a federal investigation into Bolsonaro’s possible interference with the federal police. Bolsonaro dismissed the video, saying he had never mentioned the federal police by name and that the video itself should have been destroyed. Sergio Moro, the former justice minister who resigned two days after the video was recorded, said the video helped confirm his allegations.
Afghan hospital attack. Gunmen dressed as police killed at least 16 people, including two infants, in an attack on the Dasht-e-Barchi hospital in Kabul. A separate suicide bombing of a funeral in Nangarhar province killed 26 people. The Taliban denied responsibility for both attacks.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for the Afghan government and Taliban to use the tragedy as an opportunity to work together. “We note the Taliban have denied any responsibility and condemned both attacks as heinous,” Pompeo said. “The Taliban and the Afghan government should cooperate to bring the perpetrators to justice.”
Coronavirus strikes Russia’s inner circle. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been admitted to hospital following a positive coronavirus diagnosis. He is the latest high-profile Russian figure to be infected with the virus after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was diagnosed on April 30. Peskov said he last saw President Vladimir Putin “more than a month ago,” according to the TASS news agency. On Tuesday, Russia overtook the United Kingdom as the country with the third-highest recorded number of coronavirus cases, with 232,243.
Keep an Eye On
Coronavirus spread in Yemen. The coronavirus is spreading further in Yemen, after the country’s Saudi-backed government reported cases in provinces where none had been recorded to date. The three southern provinces of Abyan, al-Mahra, and Shabwa all reported their first cases, bringing the country’s official total to 65.
The World Health Organization acknowledged the low number of cases in Yemen in a May 2 statement, but made clear that the coronavirus is likely to be “actively circulating” in the war-torn country.
Lesotho’s political saga ends. Lesotho’s prime minister, Thomas Thabane, is expected to resign from office today, following the collapse of his governing coalition on Monday. Pressure has grown on Thabane over the past year over his alleged involvement in the murder of his estranged wife in 2017. His current wife has been charged in the murder case but Thabane has only been named as a suspect.
An April 20 report from the BBC suggested that Thabane would no longer be under investigation if he left office, however, lawmakers in Lesotho have claimed there has been no immunity deal agreed with the prime minister.
Odds and Ends
With much of the wealthy world stuck at home in front of their screens, curious shopping habits are emerging. According to an analysis of digital retailers by Adobe Analytics, customers seem to be saying no to pants, and embracing the pajama lifestyle. Pajama sales were up 143 percent between March and April, but sales of pants were down 13 percent.
Despite the shift in habits, they are unlikely to be enough to offset the overall slump in U.S. consumer spending. “It will take a long time for sales to get back to normal and for people to feel comfortable heading back to stores,” Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst, told CNN. “We are in the midst of a recession, possibly a depression. If there’s a nonessential retailer that can thrive in that retail environment, I want to know who they are.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.
Image credit: Sebastian Scheiner / AFP


foreignpolicy--2020-05-13--Facing Pandemic, Latvia Follows the Lead of Its Experts

Facing Pandemic , Latvia Follows the Lead of Its Experts RIGA , Latvia—To the surprise of many , this not particularly wealthy Northern European country of 1.9 million people appears to be one of the coronavirus pandemic ’ s success stories .
As of May 13 , Latvia has confirmed only 951 coronavirus cases and 19 deaths .
By contrast , neighboring Estonia has recorded double the number of cases and three times as many deaths .
In Latvia , there has been one only death related to COVID-19 since May 4 .
It seems that the country has not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Without its usual number of tourists , one could hardly call the capital of Riga bustling , but life goes on .
The government has taken a middle-of-the-road approach to restrictions .
There is an increased police presence , but it is not overbearing .
There is a strict social distancing rule : Citizens are allowed in public only in groups of two and must maintain a six-foot distance from each other .
At the same time , all cafes , restaurants , and shops are allowed to remain open .
Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the loss of business and forced to close .
There is no lockdown here—only a slowdown , and it is working .
The mood in Riga isn ’ t exactly upbeat , but it isn ’ t grim .
It is something else : The feeling of an ethnically divided country that is pulling itself together , perhaps for the first time .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic . ]
“ That was a tense day , ” Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins told Foreign Policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just declared COVID-19 a pandemic .
We had not recorded any deaths .
The number of infections was small and growing slowly.
” Karins is a U.S.-born , Ivy League-educated politician appointed by President Raimonds Vejonis in January 2019 as the head of a broad-based , five-party coalition .
A member of the Latvian diaspora , he returned to the small Baltic state in the early 1990s and entered politics in 2002 .
After declaring the state of emergency , which allows the cabinet to set new laws , pending parliamentary review , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ school system and switched it to remote learning .
At the time , schools in many other countries remained open , but acting on the advice of its medical advisors , Latvia ’ s government decided to shutter them .
“ We decided to do this in order to prevent a disaster , ” Karins said .
With the support of the opposition , the government took a number of other forceful steps .
On March 17 , Riga ’ s international airport was closed except for government repatriation flights for Latvians abroad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Tallinn , Estonia , and Vilnius , Lithuania , were still in full operation .
The social distancing rule was imposed for all private and public meetings , with fines up to 2,000 euros ( $ 2,200 ) for violating the two-person limit .
At the same time , the cabinet pursued its middle-of-the-road approach in the commercial sector , shutting down malls on the weekends , while allowing most other commercial establishments to remain open .
Like both Germany and South Korea , Latvia at the same time instituted an aggressive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hastily scrambled consortium of public and private laboratories , with the aim of tracking and isolating every case of the coronavirus .
The country currently has one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world .
“ Test , track , isolate , ” is the government ’ s mantra , according to Karins .
“ It ’ s terrible to compare death rates across countries , ” the prime minister said .
“ The deaths we have had are still tragedies .
But considering how things could have gone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems that we ’ re doing well.
” Health Minister Ilze Vinkele reported on March 19 that Latvia had 450 ICU beds , with 1,500 additional beds that can be retrofitted as ICU units—but even that is nowhere near enough to handle an outbreak the size of Italy ’ s or Spain ’ s .
At first , personal protective equipment for medical staff was in short supply but the government enlisted the Ministry of Defense ’ s logistics team to expedite procurement of such equipment .
The government has also acted with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expertise , relying on a cadre of the region ’ s top epidemiologists and virologists based in Latvia .
“ There was a feeling , early on , that we needed to bring our best medical minds to the fore , ” said Janis Bekeris , the chief spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs .
There were also the cautionary examples of other European countries such as the United Kingdom , which ignored its experts at the beginning of its outbreak , or Italy , which counted on a regional rather than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s experts is Uga Dumpis , an infectious disease specialist at Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital and one of the cabinet ’ s top advisors .
Dumpis called Latvia ’ s carefully calibrated , relatively unrestrictive response “ one of the freest in Europe.
” He and his colleagues are nonetheless critical of the largely haphazard , no-lockdown response in Sweden , where schools remain open , social distancing is recommended rather than mandated , and nearly 3,500 people have died .
In Latvia , according to Dumpis , the government ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ degree of public support .
He hopes that the coronavirus will compel the country ’ s leaders to invest more money in the cash-strapped health care system .
“ Last year Latvia spent 4 percent of its GDP on health care , ” he said .
By contrast , in 2018 Estonia and Lithuania spent 5.1 percent and 5.9 respectively .
Along with the public support for the government ’ s response , the pandemic seems to have helped bring the country together .
The two most prominent experts on the pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be from different sides of Latvia ’ s ethnic divide .
Dumpis is an ethnic Latvian , while Perevoscikovs is a member of the country ’ s Russian-speaking minority .
Having representatives of both communities as the public face of the government ’ s COVID-19 response is “ an unexpected side effect of the pandemic , ” Karins said .
“ The virus doesn ’ t treat people by their level of income or ethnicity.
” The government ’ s challenge now is finding the right balance between keeping the curve flat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The fulcrum of the balance is our experts , ” Karins said .
On May 7 , when , after consulting its experts , the cabinet extended the state of emergency through June 9 while loosening some restrictions .
In-person consultation for school exams is allowed , and shopping malls can stay open during the weekend .
Masks are now mandatory on public transportation .
Members of the business community hit hard by the coronavirus have been among the Karins government ’ s supporters during the crisis .
The government has covered 75 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 700 euros ( $ 750 ) and granted tax deferment to companies for up to three years .
“ I have to say that I am very impressed by the way the government handled the situation , ” said Bernhard Loew , the Austrian manager of a luxury hotel that has temporarily closed .
“ The correct moves were taken at the right time.
” The right decisions by the right people at the right time : That seems to be the best explanation for Latvia ’ s success .
“ Crises can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people and governments , ” Karins said .
“ And I think in our case we ’ re one of the countries where at least this crisis has brought out the best in our people and the government as well.
” Hopefully , Latvians will continue to exercise the same exemplary self-discipline and concern for the commonweal they have displayed thus far .
Whether they do so remains to be seen .
“ We are dealing with human behavior here , not mathematical modules , ” Dumpis said .
Still , it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s rosy assessment : It ’ s bracing to see a country get its act together .
It appears that a medical crisis has helped Latvia resolve its identity crisis and enhanced the public ’ s sense of safety , as well as the feeling that the national government cares about its citizens .
One of the many surprises of the coronavirus crisis has been the number of Latvian diaspora who decided to return .
Over 5,000 Latvians boarded the repatriation flights the government offered amid the outbreak , according to Bekeris , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s expectations .
The returnees included tourists and students , but also reportedly many Latvians residing abroad who decided that now was the right time to come home for good .

RIGA, Latvia—To the surprise of many, this not particularly wealthy Northern European country of 1.9 million people appears to be one of the coronavirus pandemic’s success stories. As of May 13, Latvia has confirmed only 951 coronavirus cases and 19 deaths. By contrast, neighboring Estonia has recorded double the number of cases and three times as many deaths.
RIGA, Latvia—To the surprise of many, this not particularly wealthy Northern European country of 1.9 million people appears to be one of the coronavirus pandemic’s success stories. As of May 13, Latvia has confirmed only 951 coronavirus cases and 19 deaths. By contrast, neighboring Estonia has recorded double the number of cases and three times as many deaths.
In Latvia, there has been one only death related to COVID-19 since May 4. It seems that the country has not just flattened the curve but smashed it.
Without its usual number of tourists, one could hardly call the capital of Riga bustling, but life goes on. The government has taken a middle-of-the-road approach to restrictions. There is an increased police presence, but it is not overbearing. There is a strict social distancing rule: Citizens are allowed in public only in groups of two and must maintain a six-foot distance from each other. At the same time, all cafes, restaurants, and shops are allowed to remain open. Still, many have been hit hard by the loss of business and forced to close.
There is no lockdown here—only a slowdown, and it is working. The mood in Riga isn’t exactly upbeat, but it isn’t grim. It is something else: The feeling of an ethnically divided country that is pulling itself together, perhaps for the first time.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
March 12—when the cabinet declared a state of emergency—stands out as a pivotal moment in Latvia’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Elsewhere in Europe, there was little agreement about how to respond to the crisis. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson joked about how he was still shaking hands. The European Union was still “assessing” the situation. It appeared to be every country on its own.
“That was a tense day,” Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins told Foreign Policy. “The World Health Organization had just declared COVID-19 a pandemic. We had not recorded any deaths. The number of infections was small and growing slowly.” Karins is a U.S.-born, Ivy League-educated politician appointed by President Raimonds Vejonis in January 2019 as the head of a broad-based, five-party coalition. A member of the Latvian diaspora, he returned to the small Baltic state in the early 1990s and entered politics in 2002.
After declaring the state of emergency, which allows the cabinet to set new laws, pending parliamentary review, the government shut down Latvia’s school system and switched it to remote learning. At the time, schools in many other countries remained open, but acting on the advice of its medical advisors, Latvia’s government decided to shutter them. “We decided to do this in order to prevent a disaster,” Karins said.
With the support of the opposition, the government took a number of other forceful steps. On March 17, Riga’s international airport was closed except for government repatriation flights for Latvians abroad. At the time, the airports in Tallinn, Estonia, and Vilnius, Lithuania, were still in full operation. The social distancing rule was imposed for all private and public meetings, with fines up to 2,000 euros ($2,200) for violating the two-person limit. At the same time, the cabinet pursued its middle-of-the-road approach in the commercial sector, shutting down malls on the weekends, while allowing most other commercial establishments to remain open.
“Test, track, isolate,” is the government’s mantra.
Like both Germany and South Korea, Latvia at the same time instituted an aggressive diagnostic testing regimen with the aid of a hastily scrambled consortium of public and private laboratories, with the aim of tracking and isolating every case of the coronavirus. The country currently has one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world. “Test, track, isolate,” is the government’s mantra, according to Karins. “It’s terrible to compare death rates across countries,” the prime minister said. “The deaths we have had are still tragedies. But considering how things could have gone, and looking around Europe, it seems that we’re doing well.”
While it was likely aided by its small size and a bit of luck, it is surprising that Latvia has fared so well against the coronavirus. Its underfunded health care system, which includes a number of Soviet-era facilities, could hardly be called state-of-the-art. Moreover, many staff are over the age of 65 and there are too few nurses. In part, it was an awareness of the health care system’s deficiencies that prompted the government to act quickly and preemptively. There was no room for an influx of patients.
Health Minister Ilze Vinkele reported on March 19 that Latvia had 450 ICU beds, with 1,500 additional beds that can be retrofitted as ICU units—but even that is nowhere near enough to handle an outbreak the size of Italy’s or Spain’s. At first, personal protective equipment for medical staff was in short supply but the government enlisted the Ministry of Defense’s logistics team to expedite procurement of such equipment.
The government has also acted with a deep-rooted respect for science and medical expertise, relying on a cadre of the region’s top epidemiologists and virologists based in Latvia. “There was a feeling, early on, that we needed to bring our best medical minds to the fore,” said Janis Bekeris, the chief spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. There were also the cautionary examples of other European countries such as the United Kingdom, which ignored its experts at the beginning of its outbreak, or Italy, which counted on a regional rather than a national strategy.
One of Latvia’s experts is Uga Dumpis, an infectious disease specialist at Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital and one of the cabinet’s top advisors. Dumpis called Latvia’s carefully calibrated, relatively unrestrictive response “one of the freest in Europe.” He and his colleagues are nonetheless critical of the largely haphazard, no-lockdown response in Sweden, where schools remain open, social distancing is recommended rather than mandated, and nearly 3,500 people have died.
In Latvia, according to Dumpis, the government’s containment measures have received a high degree of public support. He hopes that the coronavirus will compel the country’s leaders to invest more money in the cash-strapped health care system. “Last year Latvia spent 4 percent of its GDP on health care,” he said. By contrast, in 2018 Estonia and Lithuania spent 5.1 percent and 5.9 respectively.
Along with the public support for the government’s response, the pandemic seems to have helped bring the country together. The two most prominent experts on the pandemic, Dumpis and Jurijs Perevoscikovs, happen to be from different sides of Latvia’s ethnic divide. Dumpis is an ethnic Latvian, while Perevoscikovs is a member of the country’s Russian-speaking minority. Having representatives of both communities as the public face of the government’s COVID-19 response is “an unexpected side effect of the pandemic,” Karins said. “The virus doesn’t treat people by their level of income or ethnicity.”
The government’s challenge now is finding the right balance between keeping the curve flat and deciding which restrictions to loosen. “The fulcrum of the balance is our experts,” Karins said. On May 7, when, after consulting its experts, the cabinet extended the state of emergency through June 9 while loosening some restrictions. In-person consultation for school exams is allowed, and shopping malls can stay open during the weekend. Masks are now mandatory on public transportation. Members of the business community hit hard by the coronavirus have been among the Karins government’s supporters during the crisis. The government has covered 75 percent of employees’ salaries up to 700 euros ($750) and granted tax deferment to companies for up to three years. “I have to say that I am very impressed by the way the government handled the situation,” said Bernhard Loew, the Austrian manager of a luxury hotel that has temporarily closed. “The correct moves were taken at the right time.”
The right decisions by the right people at the right time: That seems to be the best explanation for Latvia’s success. “Crises can bring out the best and worst in people and governments,” Karins said. “And I think in our case we’re one of the countries where at least this crisis has brought out the best in our people and the government as well.”
Hopefully, Latvians will continue to exercise the same exemplary self-discipline and concern for the commonweal they have displayed thus far. Whether they do so remains to be seen. “We are dealing with human behavior here, not mathematical modules,” Dumpis said. Still, it is difficult to take issue with Karins’s rosy assessment: It’s bracing to see a country get its act together. It appears that a medical crisis has helped Latvia resolve its identity crisis and enhanced the public’s sense of safety, as well as the feeling that the national government cares about its citizens.
One of the many surprises of the coronavirus crisis has been the number of Latvian diaspora who decided to return. Over 5,000 Latvians boarded the repatriation flights the government offered amid the outbreak, according to Bekeris, far exceeding the foreign affairs ministry’s expectations. The returnees included tourists and students, but also reportedly many Latvians residing abroad who decided that now was the right time to come home for good.