foreignpolicy--2020-04-15--Trump Halts WHO Funding as U.S. Daily Death Toll Reaches New High

Trump Halts WHO Funding as U.S. Daily Death Toll Reaches New High Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The United States recorded its highest daily coronavirus death toll while President Trump called to end WHO funding , the IMF predicts the biggest global recession since the Great Depression , and South Korea votes in legislative elections .
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The United States recorded its highest daily death toll of its coronavirus epidemic on Tuesday as the country ’ s overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday , 2,299 new deaths were reported , halting a downward trend in the U.S. death rate over the last three days .
Faced with those figures , U.S. President Donald Trump has focused his ire on the World Health Organization , “ Today I ’ m instructing my administration to stop funding of the WHO while a review is conducted to assess the WHO ’ s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus , ” he said at a White House briefing .
“ Please don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on April 8 after Trump had accused the WHO of being “ China-centric.
” “ If you want to be exploited and if you want to have many more body bags , then you do it .
If you don ’ t want many more body bags , then you refrain from politicizing it , ” he added .
Nancy Pelosi , the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives has been particularly scathing about Trump ’ s conduct , sending a letter to House Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of events that led to the U.S. coronavirus crisis .
The final bullet point said , “ The truth is a weak person , a poor leader , takes no responsibility .
A weak person blames others.
” Trump has a history with the WHO .
The decision to halt U.S. funding to the WHO is just one way the Trump administration has sought to weaken the organization , even before the coronavirus outbreak became a pandemic .
In early February , FP ’ s Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch reported on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which proposed halving U.S. WHO funding to $ 58 million .
Will a U.S. budget freeze harm the WHO ?
The United States provided just under 15 percent of the organization ’ s budget in 2018-2019 .
After the United States , the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the next largest donor , providing just under 10 percent of its budget .
It ’ s likely that other donors will fill the gap left by the United States in the short term , but if the standoff persists it could lead to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predicts worst recession since Great Depression .
The International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath projected that the global economy would contract by 3 percent , a dowturn three times greater than the contraction after the 2008 financial crisis .
“ It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression , ” Gopinath said .
She added that although a “ partial recovery is projected for 2021 ” countries should still expect their economies to be 5 percent smaller .
Voting concludes in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in South Korea ’ s parliamentary elections , one of the first countries to hold an election during the coronavirus pandemic .
Turnout at early voting locations favorable to the ruling Democratic Party indicate a return to power is likely , as South Korea becomes the world ’ s poster child for its handling of the coronavirus epidemic .
Morten Soendergaard Larsen reports for FP from Seoul on South Korea ’ s election , where voters are given gloves before entering voting booths and hand sanitizer upon leaving the polling station .
Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Saudi-led coaltion fighting in Yemen has accused the Houthis of breaking a recently announced cease-fire 241 times in the space of 48 hours .
The Saudi-led coalition began a cease-fire last Thursday , although Houthi forces had never formally accepted its terms .
Coalition officials cited ballistic and artillery attacks in the governorates of Marib , al-Jawf and Nihm as proof of Houthi actions .
The United Nations has repeatedly called for a cease-fire in Yemen as the coronavirus pandemic takes hold around the world .
Yemen has only recorded one case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unavailable .
Lavrov floats U.S.-Russia missile talks .
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday he is open to discussing hypersonic missiles with the United States as part of a wider dialogue on arms control and “ strategic stability.
” Both countries have been developing hypersonic missiles , with Russian President Vladimir Putin overseeing a test in January .
The move could signal a shift in strategy from Russia toward the United States amid falling oil prices .
Moscow already won a diplomatic victory in early April when it delivered a shipment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coronavirus strikes U.S. Navy hospital ship .
Seven service members have tested positive for the coronavirus on the USNS Mercy , a navy hospital ship docked in Los Angeles to assist with coronavirus relief efforts .
The seven have been removed from the ship , along with 112 others who had been in contact with them .
Health workers worldwide have been especially hard hit by the coronavirus : one third of National Health Service staff who have been tested in the United Kingdom have tested positive , and the U.S. Centers for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that between 10 and 20 percent of all cases in the United States were health workers .
India extends lockdown .
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended India ’ s lockdown measures until May 3 , as the number of cases in the country passed 10,000 .
Neighboring Pakistan has also extended its lockdown .
In Tuesday ’ s South Asia Brief , FP Managing Editor Ravi Agrawal warned of worse to come in South Asia , as migrant workers struggle and those living in poverty lack the resources to survive prolonged social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ referendum .
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has challenged his critics to bring forward a recall vote on his presidency to 2021 , rather than its current date in 2022 .
“ I ’ m offering them to bring forward the date .
That we don ’ t wait until 2022 for the recall vote , that we take advantage of the ( mid-term ) elections by holding it the same day , ” he said at a press conference .
In November , Mexico enacted a constitutional change allowing for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s six-year term .
The constitutional change ’ s original draft had set mid-term legislative elections in 2021 as the recall vote date , however opposition parties moved the date to 2022 before ratifying the change , making it unlikely they will now take López Obrador ’ s bait .
Scientists warn of U.S. social distancing until 2022 .
A new report published in Science magazine warns that social distancing measures may have to remain in place in the United States until 2022 .
The authors warn that “ prolonged or intermittent social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in order to not overwhelm existing critical care capacity .
It ’ s not yet known whether humans can gain long-term immunity from this coronavirus , however , if it acts like similar viruses “ recurrent wintertime outbreaks are likely to occur in coming years , ” the authors note .
Soccer fans often taunt opposing supporters as inauthentic , or “ plastic ” fans , and in Belarus—the only country in Europe to still host public soccer matches—the fans aren ’ t quite plastic , but they are close to it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , life-size cardboard cutouts were fitted with jerseys and scarves to watch FC Dynamo Brest beat Isloch Minsk 3-1 .
It ’ s a sign of what sports could look like as leagues get to grips with the coronavirus pandemic .
FC Dynamo Brest aren ’ t the first to fill their seats without humans , the Chinese Professional Baseball League began in Taiwan on Sunday with an audience of staff , mannequins , and robots .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States recorded its highest daily coronavirus death toll while President Trump called to end WHO funding, the IMF predicts the biggest global recession since the Great Depression, and South Korea votes in legislative elections.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States recorded its highest daily coronavirus death toll while President Trump called to end WHO funding, the IMF predicts the biggest global recession since the Great Depression, and South Korea votes in legislative elections.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
U.S. Death Toll Climbs as Trump Halts WHO Funding
The United States recorded its highest daily death toll of its coronavirus epidemic on Tuesday as the country’s overall infections climbed to over 600,000. On Tuesday, 2,299 new deaths were reported, halting a downward trend in the U.S. death rate over the last three days.
Faced with those figures, U.S. President Donald Trump has focused his ire on the World Health Organization, “Today I’m instructing my administration to stop funding of the WHO while a review is conducted to assess the WHO’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” he said at a White House briefing.
“Please don’t politicize this virus,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on April 8 after Trump had accused the WHO of being “China-centric.”
“If you want to be exploited and if you want to have many more body bags, then you do it. If you don’t want many more body bags, then you refrain from politicizing it,” he added.
Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives has been particularly scathing about Trump’s conduct, sending a letter to House Democrats with six bullet points outlining her version of events that led to the U.S. coronavirus crisis. The final bullet point said, “The truth is a weak person, a poor leader, takes no responsibility. A weak person blames others.”
Trump has a history with the WHO. The decision to halt U.S. funding to the WHO is just one way the Trump administration has sought to weaken the organization, even before the coronavirus outbreak became a pandemic. In early February, FP’s Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch reported on the Trump administration’s 2021 budget, which proposed halving U.S. WHO funding to $58 million.
Will a U.S. budget freeze harm the WHO? The United States provided just under 15 percent of the organization’s budget in 2018-2019. After the United States, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the next largest donor, providing just under 10 percent of its budget. It’s likely that other donors will fill the gap left by the United States in the short term, but if the standoff persists it could lead to a restructuring for the organization.
What We’re Following Today
IMF predicts worst recession since Great Depression. The International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath projected that the global economy would contract by 3 percent, a dowturn three times greater than the contraction after the 2008 financial crisis. “It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression,” Gopinath said. She added that although a “partial recovery is projected for 2021” countries should still expect their economies to be 5 percent smaller.
Voting concludes in South Korean election. Polls close today in South Korea’s parliamentary elections, one of the first countries to hold an election during the coronavirus pandemic. Turnout at early voting locations favorable to the ruling Democratic Party indicate a return to power is likely, as South Korea becomes the world’s poster child for its handling of the coronavirus epidemic. Morten Soendergaard Larsen reports for FP from Seoul on South Korea’s election, where voters are given gloves before entering voting booths and hand sanitizer upon leaving the polling station.
Saudi coalition says Houthis are breaking cease-fire. The Saudi-led coaltion fighting in Yemen has accused the Houthis of breaking a recently announced cease-fire 241 times in the space of 48 hours. The Saudi-led coalition began a cease-fire last Thursday, although Houthi forces had never formally accepted its terms. Coalition officials cited ballistic and artillery attacks in the governorates of Marib, al-Jawf and Nihm as proof of Houthi actions. The United Nations has repeatedly called for a cease-fire in Yemen as the coronavirus pandemic takes hold around the world. Yemen has only recorded one case so far, although testing is largely unavailable.
Lavrov floats U.S.-Russia missile talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday he is open to discussing hypersonic missiles with the United States as part of a wider dialogue on arms control and “strategic stability.” Both countries have been developing hypersonic missiles, with Russian President Vladimir Putin overseeing a test in January. The move could signal a shift in strategy from Russia toward the United States amid falling oil prices. Moscow already won a diplomatic victory in early April when it delivered a shipment of medical supplies to New York.
Coronavirus strikes U.S. Navy hospital ship. Seven service members have tested positive for the coronavirus on the USNS Mercy, a navy hospital ship docked in Los Angeles to assist with coronavirus relief efforts. The seven have been removed from the ship, along with 112 others who had been in contact with them. Health workers worldwide have been especially hard hit by the coronavirus: one third of National Health Service staff who have been tested in the United Kingdom have tested positive, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Tuesday that between 10 and 20 percent of all cases in the United States were health workers.
Keep an Eye On
India extends lockdown. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended India’s lockdown measures until May 3, as the number of cases in the country passed 10,000. Neighboring Pakistan has also extended its lockdown. In Tuesday’s South Asia Brief, FP Managing Editor Ravi Agrawal warned of worse to come in South Asia, as migrant workers struggle and those living in poverty lack the resources to survive prolonged social distancing.
AMLO calls for early recall referendum. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has challenged his critics to bring forward a recall vote on his presidency to 2021, rather than its current date in 2022. “I’m offering them to bring forward the date. That we don’t wait until 2022 for the recall vote, that we take advantage of the (mid-term) elections by holding it the same day,” he said at a press conference. In November, Mexico enacted a constitutional change allowing for a recall vote halfway through a president’s six-year term.
The constitutional change’s original draft had set mid-term legislative elections in 2021 as the recall vote date, however opposition parties moved the date to 2022 before ratifying the change, making it unlikely they will now take López Obrador’s bait.
Scientists warn of U.S. social distancing until 2022. A new report published in Science magazine warns that social distancing measures may have to remain in place in the United States until 2022. The authors warn that “prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022” in order to not overwhelm existing critical care capacity. It’s not yet known whether humans can gain long-term immunity from this coronavirus, however, if it acts like similar viruses “recurrent wintertime outbreaks are likely to occur in coming years,” the authors note.
Odds and Ends
Soccer fans often taunt opposing supporters as inauthentic, or “plastic” fans, and in Belarus—the only country in Europe to still host public soccer matches—the fans aren’t quite plastic, but they are close to it. In an effort to fill stadium seats, life-size cardboard cutouts were fitted with jerseys and scarves to watch FC Dynamo Brest beat Isloch Minsk 3-1. It’s a sign of what sports could look like as leagues get to grips with the coronavirus pandemic. FC Dynamo Brest aren’t the first to fill their seats without humans, the Chinese Professional Baseball League began in Taiwan on Sunday with an audience of staff, mannequins, and robots.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-14--As the Coronavirus Spreads, Conspiracy Theories Are Going Viral Too

As the Coronavirus Spreads , Conspiracy Theories Are Going Viral Too Long dismissed as absurd , conspiracy theorists on social media are increasingly posing a potential global threat—and becoming an asset for states looking to disrupt the geopolitical narrative and spread disinformation .
In the context of the global COVID-19 crisis , conspiracy theories have exploded across digital news sites and social media .
While propaganda campaigns amid pandemics are nothing new , what is new in the current crisis is the global information environment in which it is playing out .
The all-too-real impacts and stresses of the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online information ecosystem , amplifying rumors , misinformation , conspiracies , and outright lies .
For governments seeking to build trust and communicate clearly , it ’ s a nightmare .
For those looking to sow chaos and doubt , it ’ s an opportunity .
There is a concept in social media studies known as “ context collapse.
” Usually attributed to the researcher Danah Boyd , it refers to the way in which social media platforms take messages that the sender intended to be seen by one audience in a given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who were not the intended targets .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
Chances are you ’ ve experienced it yourself .
Many of us have felt the awkwardness of posting a joke on Facebook with the intention of sharing it with your friends and instead your grandma replies or making some less-than-professional comments on a personal Twitter account only to have your boss bring it up on Monday .
The nature of social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social contexts into one another so that messages tailored for one audience end up hitting others as well and being interpreted in unanticipated ways .
What the COVID-19 crisis is demonstrating is that this dynamic does not just apply to individual social media users managing personal and professional relationships ; it also applies to the cacophony of conspiracy theories raging across the screens and through the minds of social media users around the world .
In the past , pandemic-related conspiracy theories and rumors in London , Tehran , Kinshasa , Shenzhen , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In an era of global social media platforms , however , the dynamics of context collapse mean that conspiracy theories promoted by users in one place are colliding with users in others .
The fragmented nature of social media chops conspiracies into little pieces—a factoid here , a false claim there—creating a kind of information petri dish for conspiracy cross-propagation , allowing half-true facts , decontextualized narratives , and false beliefs to flow and fold into one another and spread rapidly across the world .
One of the key ways in which this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Common conspiracy hashtags , for example # coronahoax or # covid19hoax , are used by multiple groups of conspiracists in various countries and serve as vectors of transmission between them as , for example , 5G and anti-vaccination conspiracy theorists scroll through the hashtag and encounter far-right or QAnon content and vice versa .
Conspiracy theorists also actively use hashtags to attempt to spread their message around the world , for example by using multiple region-specific hashtags .
This conspiracy theory contagion has the overall effect of amplifying and strengthening conspiracy theories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social media algorithms , which are designed to optimize for engagement .
On a basic level , the more conspiracists you have believing in a particular untruth , the more content they generate promoting that untruth and the more they engage with that content .
For example , there could be five different conspiracy theories , but if they all contain the untruth that the coronavirus was created in the Fort Detrick lab in Maryland , the result overall is far more content connecting Fort Detrick to COVID-19 than would have been the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one conspiracy .
Algorithms designed to optimize for engagement will factor in the high level of engagement on content that connects Fort Detrick to COVID-19 and start actively recommending the conspiracy to other users .
For example , as of April 8 , Google ’ s top recommended related searches for “ Fort Detrick ” included “ Fort Detrick coronavirus ” and “ Fort Detrick bioweapon.
” This conspiracy theory contagion has the overall effect of amplifying and strengthening conspiracy theories , partly due to the nature of social media algorithms , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These dynamics are having real-world consequences .
For example , recent attacks on telecommunications infrastructure in the United Kingdom have been directly linked to conspiracy theories in which the COVID-19 crisis has been folded into existing anti-vaccination and anti-5G narratives .
Conspiracy theories about the supposed health effects of 5G have been spreading like wildfire across social media in recent years , in part because the conspiracy often runs through long-established anti-vaccination groups , many of which now believe 5G is either causing illness directly or that it is a deliberate effort to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ force everyone to accept vaccinations .
The specifics of how COVID-19 is grafted onto these preexisting conspiracies vary ; some say the coronavirus crisis is a cover to fast-track the implementation of 5G networks , while others believe 5G trials in Wuhan , China , damaged the immune systems of residents as part of a wider plan to impose forced vaccinations .
Some claim that maps of 5G hot spots match up with COVID-19 outbreaks or think it has something to do with interfering with atmospheric oxygen ( or maybe it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is also in there ) .
Some strains combine all of the above , spinning a nonsensical narrative about an effort by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to depopulate the planet using vaccines , 5G , and the coronavirus .
Wild claims of Chinese plots are spreading fast on social media .
The Wuhan Virus Is Not a Lab-Made Bioweapon Conspiracy theories are spreading faster than the coronavirus itself .
The president-elect ’ s dangerous views on the safety of vaccines threaten the lives of millions of Americans .
Google has banned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5G coronavirus conspiracy , and Twitter and Facebook are increasing their efforts to crack down on 5G coronavirus conspiracies on their platforms .
It is not clear that this will be successful in preventing the spread of the conspiracy , however , firstly because removing conspiracy content can itself fuel conspiracies by creating a sense of victimization and being censored ( “ Here ’ s what they don ’ t want you to know !
” ) and secondly because the widespread mainstream media coverage that followed the attacks and highlighted the conspiracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for information about it , thereby both spreading the theory and driving algorithmic feedback loops .
Acts of alleged domestic terrorism have also been linked to coronavirus-related conspiracies in recent weeks .
In the United States , on March 31 , 44-year-old Eduardo Moreno deliberately derailed a train in the Port of Los Angeles near the USNS Mercy , a naval ship being used in COVID-19 response efforts .
In his interview with the police , Moreno said his goal was to draw attention to the Mercy , which he believed “ had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a government takeover.
” The case is being investigated by both the Los Angeles Port Police and the FBI ’ s Joint Terrorism Task Force .
It is not clear yet which of several possible conspiracy theories about the Mercy Moreno subscribes to—a fact that speaks volumes in itself .
Beyond domestic terrorism concerns , and broader concerns about the erosion of truth and trust in basic facts , the dynamics of conspiracy collapse matter geopolitically because it makes conspiracy theories a tremendously resource-efficient way for state actors and others to contest or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conspiracy theories as a weapon against the West for decades .
In a fascinating parallel to today , during the 1980s the Kremlin engaged in a yearslong disinformation campaign known as Operation Infektion to spread the conspiracy theory that HIV was a bioweapon created by the United States—also in Fort Detrick , which has become a staple of bioweapons conspiracy theories and also featured in conspiracies about Ebola and anthrax .
History doesn ’ t repeat itself , but it can be digitally remastered .
Operation Infektion was a long-term , resource-intensive campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and took months and in some cases years to disseminate its narrative across the world .
Today ’ s conspiracies , by contrast , are launched into an global information infrastructure optimized for virality .
In 2020 , conspiracy theories can reach almost anywhere , almost instantly , and at incredibly low cost .
The internet has also helped erode the gatekeeping powers of traditional media , allowing all sorts of convenient fellow travelers—domestic conspiracy theorists , political pundits , concerned and confused ordinary social media users—to become witting or unwitting vectors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at no cost at all .
The evolution of the information environment in recent decades has served to make conspiracy theories a vastly quicker , cheaper , and more effective tool for spreading distrust and disinformation .
Russia has been quick to grasp the opportunities presented by the new information environment .
Increasingly , it appears China is also coming to see the appeal .
Chinese state media outlets and diplomats on Twitter have fostered multiple conspiracy theories about the coronavirus , whether by amplifying fringe Western media outlets to promote a U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ words of the Italian doctor Giuseppe Remuzzi to imply the virus might have originated in Italy .
What this reaffirms is that the actual details of the conspiracy don ’ t matter much , so long as it sows confusion and doubt .
Instead of the laborious planting of narratives involved in other forms of information operations , it ’ s more like tossing a handful of dandelion seeds into the wind ; all you have to do is wait and see how far they spread .
Conspiracy theories are a tremendously resource-efficient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contest or undermine basic facts .
You don ’ t even have to supply the seeds yourself ; it ’ s easier and more effective to harvest what ’ s already growing .
Take the case of Maatje Benassi , a 52-year-old cyclist who races for the U.S. Military Endurance Sports Team .
On March 23 , the U.S. conspiracy theorist George Webb published a video on YouTube , labeling her as the “ patient zero ” who transmitted the COVID-19 bioweapon from Fort Detrick to China when she competed at the Military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( It should be emphasized that there is no evidence whatsoever for this conspiracy theory . )
Webb is a well-established YouTuber with a long back catalogue of largely U.S.-centric conspiracy promotion , and his video about Benassi appears to have been aimed squarely at his usual audience of conspiracy and right-wing viewers .
But this time , others were watching too .
Chinese state media outlets picked up the conspiracy , amplifying it across multiple Chinese-language outlets and on WeChat .
Google Trends data shows a surge in interest in Benassi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Asia , on March 24 .
Enough users have been searching for the conspiracy that Google recommends “ Maatje Benassi coronavirus ” and “ Maatje Benassi patient zero ” as related searches for Benassi ’ s name .
Within days , the conspiracy was running riot across Facebook , Twitter , and YouTube in a range of languages and had been picked up by digital media around the world from Indonesia to Iran and Kashmir to Cuba .
Benassi ’ s case is far from unique .
Similar dynamics are playing out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Czech research scientist Sona Pekova commented in an interview with a Slovak TV channel that she believed some mutations in the virus did not appear to be of natural origin ( although she later clarified that she was not claiming they were definitely artificial either , only atypical ) .
The actual details of the conspiracy don ’ t matter much , so long as it sows confusion and doubt .
In an eerie parallel to what happened to the Italian doctor , Pekova ’ s comments were picked up by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the headline “ Czech molecular biologist , Dr. Soňa Peková explains in layman terms that COVID-19 virus originates from a lab in U.S. and not China.
” ( She didn ’ t . )
The story claimed that Pekova had “ said that it is not China that needs to refute anything about this theory [ that the virus was created in a lab ] .
” Pekova in fact said nothing of the kind in the interview , but this has not stopped the article from being widely promoted across social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Another case is Huang Yanling , a Chinese research scientist who yet another YouTube conspiracy video blamed for having created COVID-19 in a lab in Wuhan .
The video was picked up by U.S. pro-Trump media , and Huang ’ s name is now being splashed around social media .
The global response to COVID-19 has been marked by critical shortages—of ventilators , masks , and protective equipment .
There is , however , another resource with a rapidly dwindling supply : public trust .
Trust in governments and medical authorities is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mass behavioral change needed to bring the world through this crisis .
The corrosive effects of conspiracy theories on social media , combined with nation-states all too willing to exploit them , imperil that response and could prove fatal in more ways than one .

Long dismissed as absurd, conspiracy theorists on social media are increasingly posing a potential global threat—and becoming an asset for states looking to disrupt the geopolitical narrative and spread disinformation.
Long dismissed as absurd, conspiracy theorists on social media are increasingly posing a potential global threat—and becoming an asset for states looking to disrupt the geopolitical narrative and spread disinformation.
In the context of the global COVID-19 crisis, conspiracy theories have exploded across digital news sites and social media. While propaganda campaigns amid pandemics are nothing new, what is new in the current crisis is the global information environment in which it is playing out. The all-too-real impacts and stresses of the pandemic feed into the preexisting dynamics of the online information ecosystem, amplifying rumors, misinformation, conspiracies, and outright lies. For governments seeking to build trust and communicate clearly, it’s a nightmare. For those looking to sow chaos and doubt, it’s an opportunity.
There is a concept in social media studies known as “context collapse.” Usually attributed to the researcher Danah Boyd, it refers to the way in which social media platforms take messages that the sender intended to be seen by one audience in a given context and serve them up to others who were not the intended targets.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Chances are you’ve experienced it yourself. Many of us have felt the awkwardness of posting a joke on Facebook with the intention of sharing it with your friends and instead your grandma replies or making some less-than-professional comments on a personal Twitter account only to have your boss bring it up on Monday. The nature of social media platforms has a way of smashing social contexts into one another so that messages tailored for one audience end up hitting others as well and being interpreted in unanticipated ways.
What the COVID-19 crisis is demonstrating is that this dynamic does not just apply to individual social media users managing personal and professional relationships; it also applies to the cacophony of conspiracy theories raging across the screens and through the minds of social media users around the world.
In the past, pandemic-related conspiracy theories and rumors in London, Tehran, Kinshasa, Shenzhen, and Moscow would have been different. In an era of global social media platforms, however, the dynamics of context collapse mean that conspiracy theories promoted by users in one place are colliding with users in others. The fragmented nature of social media chops conspiracies into little pieces—a factoid here, a false claim there—creating a kind of information petri dish for conspiracy cross-propagation, allowing half-true facts, decontextualized narratives, and false beliefs to flow and fold into one another and spread rapidly across the world.
One of the key ways in which this happens is through the use of hashtags. Common conspiracy hashtags, for example #coronahoax or #covid19hoax, are used by multiple groups of conspiracists in various countries and serve as vectors of transmission between them as, for example, 5G and anti-vaccination conspiracy theorists scroll through the hashtag and encounter far-right or QAnon content and vice versa. Conspiracy theorists also actively use hashtags to attempt to spread their message around the world, for example by using multiple region-specific hashtags.
Screenshot of #covid19hoax hashtag showing multiple conspiracies, including anti-5G, Agenda 21, anti-climate change and pro-Trump conspiracies. Captured April 7.
This conspiracy theory contagion has the overall effect of amplifying and strengthening conspiracy theories, partly due to the nature of social media algorithms, which are designed to optimize for engagement. On a basic level, the more conspiracists you have believing in a particular untruth, the more content they generate promoting that untruth and the more they engage with that content.
For example, there could be five different conspiracy theories, but if they all contain the untruth that the coronavirus was created in the Fort Detrick lab in Maryland, the result overall is far more content connecting Fort Detrick to COVID-19 than would have been the case if the untruth were confined to one conspiracy. Algorithms designed to optimize for engagement will factor in the high level of engagement on content that connects Fort Detrick to COVID-19 and start actively recommending the conspiracy to other users. For example, as of April 8, Google’s top recommended related searches for “Fort Detrick” included “Fort Detrick coronavirus” and “Fort Detrick bioweapon.”
This conspiracy theory contagion has the overall effect of amplifying and strengthening conspiracy theories, partly due to the nature of social media algorithms, which are designed to optimize for engagement.
These dynamics are having real-world consequences. For example, recent attacks on telecommunications infrastructure in the United Kingdom have been directly linked to conspiracy theories in which the COVID-19 crisis has been folded into existing anti-vaccination and anti-5G narratives. Conspiracy theories about the supposed health effects of 5G have been spreading like wildfire across social media in recent years, in part because the conspiracy often runs through long-established anti-vaccination groups, many of which now believe 5G is either causing illness directly or that it is a deliberate effort to use radiation to weaken immune systems to force everyone to accept vaccinations.
The specifics of how COVID-19 is grafted onto these preexisting conspiracies vary; some say the coronavirus crisis is a cover to fast-track the implementation of 5G networks, while others believe 5G trials in Wuhan, China, damaged the immune systems of residents as part of a wider plan to impose forced vaccinations. Some claim that maps of 5G hot spots match up with COVID-19 outbreaks or think it has something to do with interfering with atmospheric oxygen (or maybe it’s a plan to turn humanity into cyborgs, which is also in there). Some strains combine all of the above, spinning a nonsensical narrative about an effort by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates to depopulate the planet using vaccines, 5G, and the coronavirus.
Read More Indonesian health officials stand next to a banner showing information about the Wuhan coronavirus at Juanda International Airport in Sidoarjo, East Java, on Jan. 30. Indonesian health officials stand next to a banner showing information about the Wuhan coronavirus at Juanda International Airport in Sidoarjo, East Java, on Jan. 30. Coronavirus Boosts Indonesian Anti-Chinese Conspiracies Wild claims of Chinese plots are spreading fast on social media. Argument | Kate Walton People wearing protective face masks in Bangkok People wearing protective face masks in Bangkok The Wuhan Virus Is Not a Lab-Made Bioweapon Conspiracy theories are spreading faster than the coronavirus itself. Report | Justin Ling A nurse injects an anti-flu vaccine to a woman on September 14, 2009 at the Clermont-Ferrand hospital, central France, during a test with volunteers directed by medicine Claude Dubray as a preventive measure from the H1N1 virus (swine flu). At least 3,205 people have died of the disease worldwide since it was uncovered in April, the World Health Organisation (WTO) told in a conference in Vienna today. AFP PHOTO THIERRY ZOCCOLAN (Photo credit should read THIERRY ZOCCOLAN/AFP/Getty Images) A nurse injects an anti-flu vaccine to a woman on September 14, 2009 at the Clermont-Ferrand hospital, central France, during a test with volunteers directed by medicine Claude Dubray as a preventive measure from the H1N1 virus (swine flu). At least 3,205 people have died of the disease worldwide since it was uncovered in April, the World Health Organisation (WTO) told in a conference in Vienna today. AFP PHOTO THIERRY ZOCCOLAN (Photo credit should read THIERRY ZOCCOLAN/AFP/Getty Images) Donald Trump and the Anti-Vaxxer Conspiracy Theorists The president-elect’s dangerous views on the safety of vaccines threaten the lives of millions of Americans. Voice | Laurie Garrett
Google has banned advertising on search terms related to the 5G coronavirus conspiracy, and Twitter and Facebook are increasing their efforts to crack down on 5G coronavirus conspiracies on their platforms. It is not clear that this will be successful in preventing the spread of the conspiracy, however, firstly because removing conspiracy content can itself fuel conspiracies by creating a sense of victimization and being censored (“Here’s what they don’t want you to know!”) and secondly because the widespread mainstream media coverage that followed the attacks and highlighted the conspiracy will inevitably drive more users to search for information about it, thereby both spreading the theory and driving algorithmic feedback loops.
Acts of alleged domestic terrorism have also been linked to coronavirus-related conspiracies in recent weeks. In the United States, on March 31, 44-year-old Eduardo Moreno deliberately derailed a train in the Port of Los Angeles near the USNS Mercy, a naval ship being used in COVID-19 response efforts.
In his interview with the police, Moreno said his goal was to draw attention to the Mercy, which he believed “had an alternate purpose related to COVID-19 or a government takeover.” The case is being investigated by both the Los Angeles Port Police and the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force. It is not clear yet which of several possible conspiracy theories about the Mercy Moreno subscribes to—a fact that speaks volumes in itself.
More #covid19hoax disinformation, showing 5G conspiracies and a hoax that the coronavirus originated in a U.S. lab. Captured on April 7.
Beyond domestic terrorism concerns, and broader concerns about the erosion of truth and trust in basic facts, the dynamics of conspiracy collapse matter geopolitically because it makes conspiracy theories a tremendously resource-efficient way for state actors and others to contest or undermine basic facts.
Russia has used conspiracy theories as a weapon against the West for decades. In a fascinating parallel to today, during the 1980s the Kremlin engaged in a yearslong disinformation campaign known as Operation Infektion to spread the conspiracy theory that HIV was a bioweapon created by the United States—also in Fort Detrick, which has become a staple of bioweapons conspiracy theories and also featured in conspiracies about Ebola and anthrax. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it can be digitally remastered.
Operation Infektion was a long-term, resource-intensive campaign involving multiple Soviet-funded print and radio outlets and took months and in some cases years to disseminate its narrative across the world. Today’s conspiracies, by contrast, are launched into an global information infrastructure optimized for virality.
In 2020, conspiracy theories can reach almost anywhere, almost instantly, and at incredibly low cost. The internet has also helped erode the gatekeeping powers of traditional media, allowing all sorts of convenient fellow travelers—domestic conspiracy theorists, political pundits, concerned and confused ordinary social media users—to become witting or unwitting vectors, producing content and amplifying the narrative independently at no cost at all. The evolution of the information environment in recent decades has served to make conspiracy theories a vastly quicker, cheaper, and more effective tool for spreading distrust and disinformation.
Russia has been quick to grasp the opportunities presented by the new information environment. Increasingly, it appears China is also coming to see the appeal. Chinese state media outlets and diplomats on Twitter have fostered multiple conspiracy theories about the coronavirus, whether by amplifying fringe Western media outlets to promote a U.S. origin conspiracy narrative or through twisting the words of the Italian doctor Giuseppe Remuzzi to imply the virus might have originated in Italy.
What this reaffirms is that the actual details of the conspiracy don’t matter much, so long as it sows confusion and doubt. Instead of the laborious planting of narratives involved in other forms of information operations, it’s more like tossing a handful of dandelion seeds into the wind; all you have to do is wait and see how far they spread.
Conspiracy theories are a tremendously resource-efficient way for state actors and others to contest or undermine basic facts.
You don’t even have to supply the seeds yourself; it’s easier and more effective to harvest what’s already growing. Take the case of Maatje Benassi, a 52-year-old cyclist who races for the U.S. Military Endurance Sports Team. On March 23, the U.S. conspiracy theorist George Webb published a video on YouTube, labeling her as the “patient zero” who transmitted the COVID-19 bioweapon from Fort Detrick to China when she competed at the Military World Games in Wuhan in October 2019. (It should be emphasized that there is no evidence whatsoever for this conspiracy theory.) Webb is a well-established YouTuber with a long back catalogue of largely U.S.-centric conspiracy promotion, and his video about Benassi appears to have been aimed squarely at his usual audience of conspiracy and right-wing viewers. But this time, others were watching too.
Chinese state media outlets picked up the conspiracy, amplifying it across multiple Chinese-language outlets and on WeChat. Google Trends data shows a surge in interest in Benassi, particularly from China and other parts of Asia, on March 24. Enough users have been searching for the conspiracy that Google recommends “Maatje Benassi coronavirus” and “Maatje Benassi patient zero” as related searches for Benassi’s name. Within days, the conspiracy was running riot across Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube in a range of languages and had been picked up by digital media around the world from Indonesia to Iran and Kashmir to Cuba.
Benassi’s case is far from unique. Similar dynamics are playing out across multiple conspiracy narratives. For example, the Czech research scientist Sona Pekova commented in an interview with a Slovak TV channel that she believed some mutations in the virus did not appear to be of natural origin (although she later clarified that she was not claiming they were definitely artificial either, only atypical).
The actual details of the conspiracy don’t matter much, so long as it sows confusion and doubt.
In an eerie parallel to what happened to the Italian doctor, Pekova’s comments were picked up by a Hong Kong-based pro-China media outlet under the headline “Czech molecular biologist, Dr. Soňa Peková explains in layman terms that COVID-19 virus originates from a lab in U.S. and not China.” (She didn’t.) The story claimed that Pekova had “said that it is not China that needs to refute anything about this theory [that the virus was created in a lab].” Pekova in fact said nothing of the kind in the interview, but this has not stopped the article from being widely promoted across social media as evidence for the U.S. origin conspiracy.
Another case is Huang Yanling, a Chinese research scientist who yet another YouTube conspiracy video blamed for having created COVID-19 in a lab in Wuhan. The video was picked up by U.S. pro-Trump media, and Huang’s name is now being splashed around social media.
The global response to COVID-19 has been marked by critical shortages—of ventilators, masks, and protective equipment. There is, however, another resource with a rapidly dwindling supply: public trust. Trust in governments and medical authorities is absolutely vital to achieve the kind of mass behavioral change needed to bring the world through this crisis. The corrosive effects of conspiracy theories on social media, combined with nation-states all too willing to exploit them, imperil that response and could prove fatal in more ways than one.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-14--Lockdown or Starvation? Poorer Economies Weigh Impossible Choice

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s weekly South Asia Brief .
This week , it ’ s mostly pandemic news : Countries extend their coronavirus lockdowns , economic growth forecasts plummet , and the U.S.-Taliban talks continue in Doha , Qatar .
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox , please sign up here .
Amid the coronavirus pandemic , economists are scrambling to revise estimates for how countries will perform in the coming months and years .
On Tuesday , the International Monetary Fund said it expected the global economy to shrink by 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ downturn since the Great Depression and a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from the IMF ’ s last global forecast in January .
In its new report , the group had especially grim forecasts for advanced economies : The United States , the eurozone , and Japan are expected to contract by 5.9 percent , 7.5 percent , and 5.2 percent respectively this year , while China and India are expected to grow by 1.2 percent and 1.9 percent .
The projections are precarious given that most countries remain under indefinite lockdown .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ other , which means there is substantial uncertainty about the impact it will have on people ’ s lives and livelihoods , ” Gita Gopinath , the IMF ’ s chief economist , said on Tuesday .
Growth expectations .
The World Bank released a report looking more closely at South Asia ’ s economies on Sunday .
As shown below , the Maldives will face the biggest impact from the pandemic , because tourism accounts for two-thirds of its GDP .
Afghanistan , Pakistan , and Sri Lanka are also expected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s growth in the fiscal year that just began ( shown in the 2021 column ) is expected to range between 1.5 percent and 2.8 percent .
To lock down or not ?
In a televised address to the nation on Tuesday , Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended the country ’ s lockdown until at least May 3 .
“ From an economic only point of view , it undoubtedly looks costly right now .
But measured against the lives of Indian citizens , there is no comparison , ” he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ similarly tough decisions .
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also announced a two-week extension of his country ’ s shutdown but said that some industries such as construction would reopen soon .
Bangladesh extended its lockdown until April 25 , and Nepal is shut down until April 27 .
As the rapidly rising cases across the region show , the worst still appears to be ahead for South Asia—especially with secondary waves of infection highly likely .
Across the region , tens of millions of migrant workers and daily wage laborers are struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and social distancing remains a luxury for hundreds of millions in the lower middle classes .
How long can things continue as they are ?
I ’ ve been thinking about the research by Yale University ’ s Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and Zachary Barnett-Howell that found significant differences in the value of social distancing across countries .
In FP , the two write that “ flattening the epidemiological curve of the coronavirus to buy time until a vaccine can be developed may prove counterproductive for poorer countries if it increases …other causes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ malnutrition , and other health problems .
They suggest alternative policies for developing nations such as universal mask-wearing , improved access to clean water and sanitation , restrictions on religious gatherings , and information campaigns .
Each country will ultimately make its own decision .
Even within countries , states may need to tailor policies to their unique demographics .
There are no clear options : A blanket lockdown in South Asian economies risks transferring the epidemic risk from the rich to the poor .
Reversing lockdowns too quickly , however , would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way .
Nepal ’ s migrant workers .
Nepal has a population of just 28 million , but 4 million citizens live outside the country .
What happens if they want to return home during the pandemic ?
As the Nepali Times reports , the country would struggle to repatriate so many workers , let alone provide quarantine facilities once they arrive .
That inability could jeopardize relations with countries such as the United Arab Emirates , which is home to an estimated 275,000 Nepali migrant workers and is pushing countries to bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Doha .
A high-level U.S. delegation met with the co-founder of the Taliban on Monday in Doha , Qatar , according to tweets from a Doha-based Taliban spokesman .
U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad and U.S. Army Gen. Scott Miller spoke with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on the potential release of Taliban prisoners—an issue that the two sides and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani disagree on in terms of both timing and scale .
India-Pakistan crossfire .
Over the weekend , Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged fire across the Line of Control that divides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ killed three civilians on India ’ s side of the border , while Pakistan counted one dead and four wounded .
On Monday , Islamabad summoned an Indian ministry official to lodge an official protest over , by its count , 749 cease-fire violations by India this year .
Indian authorities say that Pakistani troops initiated the cease-fire violation targeting a civilian population .
Press freedom under threat .
The Indian journalist Siddharth Varadarajan , the founding editor the news website the Wire , has been served notice to appear before the Uttar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed the state ’ s chief minister , Yogi Adityanath , attended a religious gathering in violation of the national lockdown .
The article misattributed a quote to Adityanath , which was later corrected .
The charges against Varadarajan follow a growing pattern of intimidation of the media in India .
Sri Lanka ’ s death protocols .
Colombo has made cremations compulsory for coronavirus victims , going a step further then recommendations from the World Health Organization that state people who died of COVID-19 can be buried or cremated .
The decision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who make up 10 percent of the country ’ s population of 21 million , as Islam forbids cremation .
Bhutan ’ s Queen Jetsun Pema gave birth to a baby boy on March 19 .
That brings us to our question this week : What is the population of the Himalayan kingdom ?
Scroll down for the answer .
Elephants roam free .
Near and around India ’ s Corbett National Park , the Hindustan Times reports that elephants are changing their behavior because of the nationwide lockdown , with less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earlier while an elephant would cross through a corridor , there would be heavy traffic with some people trying to come close to the animal , which would irritate it and eventually lead to conflict , ” said one expert quoted in the article .
The park has some 1,400 elephants .
According to the United Nations , Bhutan had a population of 754,388 in 2018 , with a median age of 24.8 years .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brief here .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief. This week, it’s mostly pandemic news: Countries extend their coronavirus lockdowns , economic growth forecasts plummet, and the U.S.-Taliban talks continue in Doha, Qatar.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief. This week, it’s mostly pandemic news: Countries extend their coronavirus lockdowns, economic growth forecasts plummet, and the U.S.-Taliban talks continue in Doha, Qatar.
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox, please sign up here.
South Asia Faces Difficult Decisions Ahead
Amid the coronavirus pandemic, economists are scrambling to revise estimates for how countries will perform in the coming months and years. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said it expected the global economy to shrink by 3 percent in 2020, marking the biggest downturn since the Great Depression and a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from the IMF’s last global forecast in January.
In its new report, the group had especially grim forecasts for advanced economies: The United States, the eurozone, and Japan are expected to contract by 5.9 percent, 7.5 percent, and 5.2 percent respectively this year, while China and India are expected to grow by 1.2 percent and 1.9 percent. The projections are precarious given that most countries remain under indefinite lockdown. “This is a crisis like no other, which means there is substantial uncertainty about the impact it will have on people’s lives and livelihoods,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said on Tuesday.
Growth expectations. The World Bank released a report looking more closely at South Asia’s economies on Sunday. As shown below, the Maldives will face the biggest impact from the pandemic, because tourism accounts for two-thirds of its GDP. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are also expected to fall into deep recession. India’s growth in the fiscal year that just began (shown in the 2021 column) is expected to range between 1.5 percent and 2.8 percent.
To lock down or not? In a televised address to the nation on Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended the country’s lockdown until at least May 3. “From an economic only point of view, it undoubtedly looks costly right now. But measured against the lives of Indian citizens, there is no comparison,” he said. India’s neighbors have made similarly tough decisions. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also announced a two-week extension of his country’s shutdown but said that some industries such as construction would reopen soon.
Bangladesh extended its lockdown until April 25, and Nepal is shut down until April 27.
As the rapidly rising cases across the region show, the worst still appears to be ahead for South Asia—especially with secondary waves of infection highly likely. Across the region, tens of millions of migrant workers and daily wage laborers are struggling to put food on the table, and social distancing remains a luxury for hundreds of millions in the lower middle classes.
How long can things continue as they are? I’ve been thinking about the research by Yale University’s Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and Zachary Barnett-Howell that found significant differences in the value of social distancing across countries. In FP, the two write that “flattening the epidemiological curve of the coronavirus to buy time until a vaccine can be developed may prove counterproductive for poorer countries if it increases …other causes of mortality,” such as hunger, malnutrition, and other health problems. They suggest alternative policies for developing nations such as universal mask-wearing, improved access to clean water and sanitation, restrictions on religious gatherings, and information campaigns.
Each country will ultimately make its own decision. Even within countries, states may need to tailor policies to their unique demographics. There are no clear options: A blanket lockdown in South Asian economies risks transferring the epidemic risk from the rich to the poor. Reversing lockdowns too quickly, however, would overwhelm health care systems in an unimaginable way.
What We’re Following
Nepal’s migrant workers. Nepal has a population of just 28 million, but 4 million citizens live outside the country. What happens if they want to return home during the pandemic? As the Nepali Times reports, the country would struggle to repatriate so many workers, let alone provide quarantine facilities once they arrive. That inability could jeopardize relations with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, which is home to an estimated 275,000 Nepali migrant workers and is pushing countries to bring their citizens home.
U.S.-Taliban discussions in Doha. A high-level U.S. delegation met with the co-founder of the Taliban on Monday in Doha, Qatar, according to tweets from a Doha-based Taliban spokesman. U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad and U.S. Army Gen. Scott Miller spoke with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on the potential release of Taliban prisoners—an issue that the two sides and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani disagree on in terms of both timing and scale.
India-Pakistan crossfire. Over the weekend, Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged fire across the Line of Control that divides the disputed Kashmir region. The crossfire killed three civilians on India’s side of the border, while Pakistan counted one dead and four wounded. On Monday, Islamabad summoned an Indian ministry official to lodge an official protest over, by its count, 749 cease-fire violations by India this year. Indian authorities say that Pakistani troops initiated the cease-fire violation targeting a civilian population.
Press freedom under threat. The Indian journalist Siddharth Varadarajan, the founding editor the news website the Wire, has been served notice to appear before the Uttar Pradesh police for publishing a story that showed the state’s chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, attended a religious gathering in violation of the national lockdown. The article misattributed a quote to Adityanath, which was later corrected. The charges against Varadarajan follow a growing pattern of intimidation of the media in India.
Sri Lanka’s death protocols. Colombo has made cremations compulsory for coronavirus victims, going a step further then recommendations from the World Health Organization that state people who died of COVID-19 can be buried or cremated. The decision has angered Sri Lanka’s Muslims, who make up 10 percent of the country’s population of 21 million, as Islam forbids cremation.
Question of the Week
Bhutan’s Queen Jetsun Pema gave birth to a baby boy on March 19. That brings us to our question this week: What is the population of the Himalayan kingdom?
A) 550,000
B) 750,000
C) 5,550,000
D) 15,550,000
Scroll down for the answer.
Odds and Ends
A herd of wild elephants crosses National Highway 37 after a flood in Kaziranga National Park in Assam, India, on July 17, 2019.
Elephants roam free. Near and around India’s Corbett National Park, the Hindustan Times reports that elephants are changing their behavior because of the nationwide lockdown, with less conflict between human and pachyderm. “Earlier while an elephant would cross through a corridor, there would be heavy traffic with some people trying to come close to the animal, which would irritate it and eventually lead to conflict,” said one expert quoted in the article. The park has some 1,400 elephants.
And the Answer Is…
B) 750,000.
According to the United Nations, Bhutan had a population of 754,388 in 2018, with a median age of 24.8 years.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of South Asia Brief here. For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-14--In the Post-Coronavirus World, Chinese Power Is Overrated

In the Post-Coronavirus World , Chinese Power Is Overrated On March 18 , U.S. President Donald Trump invoked the Korean War-era Defense Production Act , casting himself as a “ wartime president ” fighting for “ total victory ” against an “ invisible enemy ” : the new coronavirus .
Two days earlier , French President Emmanuel Macron had issued his own declaration of war on the coronavirus .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s coronavirus war became personal when he himself entered the casualty lists , spending a week in the hospital .
Political leaders in Australia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and of course China have also cast their response to the pandemic in decidedly martial terms .
In Brazil , the legislature has even tried to force the country ’ s president , Jair Bolsonaro , to declare war against his will .
All this talk of war inevitably raises questions about the shape of the postwar world .
Analysts polled by Foreign Policy all agree that the coronavirus will bring big changes , but they hold widely divergent opinions about just what it will change .
Perhaps not surprisingly , each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the pandemic will be reshaped much in the same way they predicted or warned before the pandemic .
A recurring theme in coronavirus-induced geopolitical dystopianism is the failure of U.S. leadership coupled with the rise of China .
Considering we ’ ve been told that the war in Iraq , the global financial crisis , and the election of Trump each marked the end of American global leadership , there must be very little American leadership left to lose .
There is always the possibility that this time is different and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are strong reasons to believe it isn ’ t .
When the world is running smoothly , friends take U.S. support for granted , and foes take advantage of that complacency .
When the going gets tough , the world rediscovers just how important U.S. leadership is .
All this talk of war inevitably raises questions about the shape of the postwar world .
Global leadership is one of those diffuse concepts that is hard to pin down and thus beloved of commentators who hate to be pinned down .
Get down to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tangible .
Leadership in specific regions and on specific issues is much easier to grasp , examine , and evaluate .
And , in the end , it ’ s only real-world places and problems that count .
Practical power in the world ’ s most consequential policy domains is the stuff of which that fabled global leadership is composed .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
Looking at a map of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alarmed by China ’ s coronavirus propaganda gains .
They include places as far from Beijing as Ethiopia ( where China plans to build a new home for the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention ) , Serbia ( where President Aleksandar Vucic showed up at Belgrade ’ s airport to greet the arrival of donated Chinese health supplies ) and Venezuela ( where state food stores rely on Chinese imports for nearly half of their stock ) .
Put these propaganda gains in economic perspective , and they recede into insignificance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economies in their corner of the world .
Take Africa , where China ’ s key partners are Ethiopia and Angola .
Their economies are dwarfed by that of Africa ’ s economic giant , Nigeria , which is a firm security partner of the United States .
Chinese investment has provoked a popular backlash in the continent ’ s second-largest economy , South Africa .
These geopolitical fault lines have stood the twin tests of Ebola and the Boko Haram insurgency ; they ’ re not going to shift as a result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up a few poor , vulnerable , badly governed countries as allies , but the big prizes remain firmly attached to the broader U.S.-led international system .
Looking at a map of the world , it ’ s easy to be alarmed by China ’ s coronavirus propaganda gains .
It ’ s the same story in Eastern Europe .
Serbia ’ s public embrace of China for investment , military exercises , and even police technologies has alarmed many European observers .
Yet even as its political rhetoric faces east , Serbia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West .
And Serbia is a relative minnow in Eastern Europe .
Firm NATO allies such as Poland , the Czech Republic , Romania , and Greece have economies that range from four times to 10 times the size of Serbia ’ s .
And China has virtually no political presence in Latin America ’ s two giants , Brazil and Mexico , which together account for more than half of the region ’ s economic output .
In Western Europe , China ’ s timely emergency assistance to Italy might undermine the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , but that ’ s more of a problem for the EU than for NATO .
Former European Commission President Jacques Delors has gone so far as to label Europe ’ s lack of coronavirus solidarity a “ mortal danger to the European Union.
” But the EU ’ s structural problems go far beyond Chinese meddling , and there ’ s no reason to believe that even a catastrophic collapse of the European project would geopolitically favor China over the United States .
If anything , it would likely make NATO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and newly exposed former EU members .
Shifting to Asia , the main theater of the geopolitical struggle between the United States and China is the broader Indo-Pacific , the region that runs from Japan to India , pivoting on Australia in the middle .
The coronavirus pandemic certainly hasn ’ t made China any friends in Japan , South Korea , or Taiwan .
Facing Chinese power head-on , these East Asian economic giants are virtually immune to Beijing ’ s influence .
In Australia , the pandemic has emboldened the China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bought up high-quality Australian-made face masks in January but is now exporting faulty Chinese masks to Australia .
Indian sensibilities have been offended by Trump ’ s extraordinarily undiplomatic public demands for an unproven coronavirus drug , hydroxychloroquine .
But China will find it difficult to make any inroads in India while maintaining its “ all-weather friendship ” with Pakistan .
When India wants to distance itself from the United States , it turns to Russia , not China .
But Russia ’ s economy is in freefall , so it is in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus-related stumble in U.S.-Indian relations .
The coronavirus pandemic may indeed drive a wedge further between the United States and some of its key allies , particularly in Western Europe .
European countries really were outraged when Trump slapped travel restrictions on the 26 Schengen Area countries on March 11 .
Yet within two weeks , nearly all of them had slapped similar travel restrictions on each other .
Europeans don ’ t like the way Trump has put “ America first ” in response to the pandemic , but they are behaving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries , including Germany and France , briefly banned the export of emergency medical equipment—even within the EU ’ s supposedly borderless common market .
Germany even seized a shipment of Chinese face masks bound for Switzerland .
The ‘ Chinese Virus ’ Spread Along the New Silk Road Western democracies may lose the coronavirus propaganda war , but China certainly won ’ t win it .
How China is Exploiting the Coronavirus to Weaken Democracies Beijing is using the pandemic to drive wedges between members of the European Union , and to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States .
If there is one lingering geopolitical effect of the coronavirus pandemic , it may be this : Countries may be a little more skeptical about globalist platitudes and a little more keen to take care of themselves .
But that doesn ’ t have to be a bad thing for U.S. leadership .
Quite the contrary .
The United States has been berating NATO allies for years about taking more responsibility for their own defense .
Greater European self-reliance would be a boon to U.S. global power , not a challenge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cohesive Europe would actually promote American global leadership , as a diminished EU would be less likely to pursue a competing strategic agenda .
European countries acting alone , rather than shielded by the EU umbrella , would also be much less likely to strike deals with China or Russia .
Without the security of being part of a strong bloc , countries such as Germany would be much more wary of making separate deals with Russia on gas supplies and other ties .
Similarly , EU members in Central and Eastern Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initiative as leverage against Brussels might be much more careful with Beijing if Brussels weren ’ t there as a backstop .
From the U.S. perspective , the most cost-effective form of global leadership is one in which Washington helps those who helps themselves .
That ’ s been the secret of U.S. success in East Asia , where the hub-and-spoke alliance system connecting the United States to Japan , South Korea , and Taiwan individually ( with only minimal cooperation among these partners ) encourages each one to provide for its own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the good feelings of NATO ’ s Article 5 commitment to collective defense , but it ’ s the East Asian allies who most consistently support American global leadership .
China need not apply .
If the coronavirus really does mean war , then it can only be positive for U.S. global leadership .
Unfortunately , Trump has chosen not to make international relations hay out of this fact .
He could have reinforced U.S. leadership by taking a much more generous approach to global appeals for support and cooperation .
No matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States will be even more central to global power networks than it was before .
China will chafe at that .
But China needs a free and open international system more than anyone , and for that , it needs U.S. leadership .

On March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump invoked the Korean War-era Defense Production Act, casting himself as a “wartime president” fighting for “total victory” against an “invisible enemy”: the new coronavirus. Two days earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron had issued his own declaration of war on the coronavirus. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s coronavirus war became personal when he himself entered the casualty lists, spending a week in the hospital. Political leaders in Australia , India , South Africa , South Korea , and of course China have also cast their response to the pandemic in decidedly martial terms. In Brazil, the legislature has even tried to force the country’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, to declare war against his will.
On March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump invoked the Korean War-era Defense Production Act, casting himself as a “wartime president” fighting for “total victory” against an “invisible enemy”: the new coronavirus. Two days earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron had issued his own declaration of war on the coronavirus. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s coronavirus war became personal when he himself entered the casualty lists, spending a week in the hospital. Political leaders in Australia, India, South Africa, South Korea, and of course China have also cast their response to the pandemic in decidedly martial terms. In Brazil, the legislature has even tried to force the country’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, to declare war against his will.
All this talk of war inevitably raises questions about the shape of the postwar world. Analysts polled by Foreign Policy all agree that the coronavirus will bring big changes, but they hold widely divergent opinions about just what it will change. Perhaps not surprisingly, each one seems to believe that the world after the pandemic will be reshaped much in the same way they predicted or warned before the pandemic.
A recurring theme in coronavirus-induced geopolitical dystopianism is the failure of U.S. leadership coupled with the rise of China. Considering we’ve been told that the war in Iraq, the global financial crisis, and the election of Trump each marked the end of American global leadership, there must be very little American leadership left to lose. There is always the possibility that this time is different and the pundits are finally right, but there are strong reasons to believe it isn’t. When the world is running smoothly, friends take U.S. support for granted, and foes take advantage of that complacency. When the going gets tough, the world rediscovers just how important U.S. leadership is.
All this talk of war inevitably raises questions about the shape of the postwar world.
Global leadership is one of those diffuse concepts that is hard to pin down and thus beloved of commentators who hate to be pinned down. Get down to details, and leadership becomes much more tangible. Leadership in specific regions and on specific issues is much easier to grasp, examine, and evaluate. And, in the end, it’s only real-world places and problems that count. Practical power in the world’s most consequential policy domains is the stuff of which that fabled global leadership is composed.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Looking at a map of the world, it’s easy to be alarmed by China’s coronavirus propaganda gains. They include places as far from Beijing as Ethiopia (where China plans to build a new home for the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention), Serbia (where President Aleksandar Vucic showed up at Belgrade’s airport to greet the arrival of donated Chinese health supplies) and Venezuela (where state food stores rely on Chinese imports for nearly half of their stock). Put these propaganda gains in economic perspective, and they recede into insignificance. All of these are marginally important economies in their corner of the world.
Take Africa, where China’s key partners are Ethiopia and Angola. Their economies are dwarfed by that of Africa’s economic giant, Nigeria, which is a firm security partner of the United States. Chinese investment has provoked a popular backlash in the continent’s second-largest economy, South Africa. These geopolitical fault lines have stood the twin tests of Ebola and the Boko Haram insurgency; they’re not going to shift as a result of the coronavirus. China may pick up a few poor, vulnerable, badly governed countries as allies, but the big prizes remain firmly attached to the broader U.S.-led international system.
Looking at a map of the world, it’s easy to be alarmed by China’s coronavirus propaganda gains.
It’s the same story in Eastern Europe. Serbia’s public embrace of China for investment, military exercises, and even police technologies has alarmed many European observers. Yet even as its political rhetoric faces east, Serbia maintains very strong security ties with the West. And Serbia is a relative minnow in Eastern Europe. Firm NATO allies such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Greece have economies that range from four times to 10 times the size of Serbia’s. And China has virtually no political presence in Latin America’s two giants, Brazil and Mexico, which together account for more than half of the region’s economic output.
In Western Europe, China’s timely emergency assistance to Italy might undermine the popularity of the European Union in that country, but that’s more of a problem for the EU than for NATO. Former European Commission President Jacques Delors has gone so far as to label Europe’s lack of coronavirus solidarity a “mortal danger to the European Union.” But the EU’s structural problems go far beyond Chinese meddling, and there’s no reason to believe that even a catastrophic collapse of the European project would geopolitically favor China over the United States. If anything, it would likely make NATO membership even more important to newly orphaned and newly exposed former EU members.
Shifting to Asia, the main theater of the geopolitical struggle between the United States and China is the broader Indo-Pacific, the region that runs from Japan to India, pivoting on Australia in the middle. The coronavirus pandemic certainly hasn’t made China any friends in Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan. Facing Chinese power head-on, these East Asian economic giants are virtually immune to Beijing’s influence. In Australia, the pandemic has emboldened the China hawks, with stories breaking that China bought up high-quality Australian-made face masks in January but is now exporting faulty Chinese masks to Australia.
Indian sensibilities have been offended by Trump’s extraordinarily undiplomatic public demands for an unproven coronavirus drug, hydroxychloroquine. But China will find it difficult to make any inroads in India while maintaining its “all-weather friendship” with Pakistan. When India wants to distance itself from the United States, it turns to Russia, not China. But Russia’s economy is in freefall, so it is in no position to take advantage of any coronavirus-related stumble in U.S.-Indian relations.
The coronavirus pandemic may indeed drive a wedge further between the United States and some of its key allies, particularly in Western Europe. European countries really were outraged when Trump slapped travel restrictions on the 26 Schengen Area countries on March 11. Yet within two weeks, nearly all of them had slapped similar travel restrictions on each other. Europeans don’t like the way Trump has put “America first” in response to the pandemic, but they are behaving exactly the same way. Some European countries, including Germany and France, briefly banned the export of emergency medical equipment—even within the EU’s supposedly borderless common market. Germany even seized a shipment of Chinese face masks bound for Switzerland.
Read More A 14th-century painting showing the caravan of Niccolò and Maffeo Polo crossing Asia. A 14th-century painting showing the caravan of Niccolò and Maffeo Polo crossing Asia. The ‘Chinese Virus’ Spread Along the New Silk Road Western democracies may lose the coronavirus propaganda war, but China certainly won’t win it. Voice | Salvatore Babones Workers at unload protective gear bound for Italy from an Austrian Airlines flight from China, at Vienna Airport on March 23, 2020. Workers at unload protective gear bound for Italy from an Austrian Airlines flight from China, at Vienna Airport on March 23, 2020. How China is Exploiting the Coronavirus to Weaken Democracies Beijing is using the pandemic to drive wedges between members of the European Union, and to advance its propaganda war against the United States. Argument | Peter Rough Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation on Nov. 25, 2014. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation on Nov. 25, 2014. India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia Beijing’s attempts to encircle New Delhi are being systematically reversed. Analysis | Derek Grossman
If there is one lingering geopolitical effect of the coronavirus pandemic, it may be this: Countries may be a little more skeptical about globalist platitudes and a little more keen to take care of themselves. But that doesn’t have to be a bad thing for U.S. leadership. Quite the contrary.
The United States has been berating NATO allies for years about taking more responsibility for their own defense. Greater European self-reliance would be a boon to U.S. global power, not a challenge. And a more nationalistic, less cohesive Europe would actually promote American global leadership, as a diminished EU would be less likely to pursue a competing strategic agenda.
European countries acting alone, rather than shielded by the EU umbrella, would also be much less likely to strike deals with China or Russia. Without the security of being part of a strong bloc, countries such as Germany would be much more wary of making separate deals with Russia on gas supplies and other ties. Similarly, EU members in Central and Eastern Europe who now use China’s 17+1 initiative as leverage against Brussels might be much more careful with Beijing if Brussels weren’t there as a backstop.
From the U.S. perspective, the most cost-effective form of global leadership is one in which Washington helps those who helps themselves. That’s been the secret of U.S. success in East Asia, where the hub-and-spoke alliance system connecting the United States to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan individually (with only minimal cooperation among these partners) encourages each one to provide for its own defense. Political pundits tend to prefer the good feelings of NATO’s Article 5 commitment to collective defense, but it’s the East Asian allies who most consistently support American global leadership. China need not apply.
If the coronavirus really does mean war, then it can only be positive for U.S. global leadership. Unfortunately, Trump has chosen not to make international relations hay out of this fact. He could have reinforced U.S. leadership by taking a much more generous approach to global appeals for support and cooperation. No matter. When the crisis is over, the United States will be even more central to global power networks than it was before. China will chafe at that. But China needs a free and open international system more than anyone, and for that, it needs U.S. leadership.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-14--The Coronavirus Threatens Some More Than Others

The Coronavirus Threatens Some More Than Others There are now more than 1.9 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus worldwide , and some 121,000 people have died from the disease that it causes , COVID-19 .
After weeks of mass closures and lockdowns , global economic activity is collapsing , with the fallout still difficult to comprehend .
The pandemic shows just how communities around the world can be connected through a shared experience—in this case , one of suffering .
But it is already clear that the coronavirus threatens some more than others : refugees , migrant laborers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or basic sanitation , or those who can ’ t afford to miss work .
For example , preliminary data released by local governments in the United States shows that the coronavirus is disproportionately affecting black Americans , reflecting long-standing inequalities .
The pandemic also throws into sharp relief global disparities .
The United Nations has warned that countries with existing humanitarian crises will be hit the hardest , as Foreign Policy ’ s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer reported on March 23 .
From prisoners in overcrowded systems to migrant workers far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of our best articles from recent weeks about the populations around the world that are likely to suffer disproportionately from the virus and its societal effects—and what might be done to safeguard their health .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
“ Prisons are a humanitarian crisis in the making , ” Vera Mironova wrote on April 1 .
Many democratic countries , such as the United States , France , and Germany @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sentences to reduce overcrowding and coronavirus exposure .
But prisoners in nondemocratic countries face different responses , from canceled amnesties to rationing medical supplies or food .
Such conditions aren ’ t sustainable : Prisoners in Colombia , Chad , and Brazil have already rioted or escaped as the crisis goes on .
“ There is only one way for nondemocratic countries to ensure some level of prison system stability in these unstable times , ” Mironova writes .
“ They need to follow the advice of human rights organizations : free some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make lockdown as bearable as possible for prisoners.
” There are more than 25 million refugees in camps around the world , a population identified by U.N. officials as one of the most vulnerable to a second phase of the coronavirus as it spreads through crowded quarters—and as aid budgets shrink amid the economic crisis .
But many countries that host refugees do not have pandemic plans that explicitly address their specific needs—and they should , as Sanjana Ravi wrote on March 27 .
The majority of refugees live in low- or middle-income @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of malnutrition and diseases that weaken the immune system .
They also face barriers to access .
“ Nationalism , isolationism , and xenophobia—forces that further marginalize refugees and make health care harder to access—are antithetical to effective pandemic response , ” she writes .
“ If refugees are afraid or unable to seek medical care , it will be impossible to halt the spread of coronavirus.
” On March 30 , Ivan Flores reported from a border camp in Matamoros , Mexico , that houses around 2,500 asylum-seekers and is underprepared for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tightly packed Matamoros camp , social distancing is impossible , and high-level health care is inaccessible , ” Flores writes .
On the Don ’ t Touch Your Face podcast , Sam Bishop , a project coordinator for a humanitarian organization working at the Matamoros camp , told Foreign Policy ’ s Amy Mackinnon : “ If we get an outbreak here … there ’ s going to be no way to effectively quarantine these people for most of the camp.
” The asylum-seekers are also worried that the pandemic will slow down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the border closes , as Flores reports .
They are stuck in Mexico as part of the Migrant Protection Protocols , which require U.S. asylum-seekers to remain on the other side of the border as their cases are processed—a situation made more precarious by the coronavirus .
Then there are the residents of places accustomed to political lockdowns who now face resource constraints that put them at greater risk amid the pandemic .
India-administered Kashmir is still under a partial internet shutdown , limiting access to information about the coronavirus in a region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as Muddasir Ali reported from Srinagar on April 13 .
Jammu and Kashmir has so far .
“ The entire world is united in the fight against this disease , sharing experiences and information online , but we have been isolated thanks to the continued curbs on the internet , ” one doctor told him .
A significant outbreak would also compound the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip , which has reported 13 cases .
Israel wields decisive power over the blockaded territory , and Gaza lacks the health care infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own , as Joshua Mitnick reported on March 26 .
“ Already , thousands of patients from Gaza get special permission to cross the border to receive treatment for various maladies in Israeli hospitals , ” he writes .
“ A coronavirus outbreak in Israel could likely shut that passage.
” Finally , there are those who are disproportionately affected by the societal and economic effects of coronavirus lockdowns and containment measures .
On March 27 , the journalist Harriet Williamson wrote that self-isolation endangers those already suffering from domestic violence in particular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports of domestic violence surged after quarantine measures were enacted in January .
“ If people are forced to self-isolate , they are at risk of being trapped in abusive and coercive situations , with less opportunity to access vital services , ” Williamson writes .
The last month has also revealed that for many , “ social distancing is a curious privilege , ” as Rana Ayyub put it on March 28 .
Though India has been under a nationwide lockdown since March 24 , migrant wage laborers in big cities are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t afford to miss a day ’ s pay .
“ A country that is already grappling with its worst unemployment rate in decades and a rising and divisive nationalism now must deal with a pandemic that will strike a major blow to its economy—especially for its so-called informal workers who have no health care , benefits , or safety nets to fall back on , ” she writes .
Farther from home , migrant workers in Qatar are still toiling on stadium and infrastructure construction projects ahead of the 2022 FIFA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of whom come from across South Asia , are highly vulnerable , Sophie Cousins wrote on April 8 .
They face labor exploitation , live in close quarters , and lack access to health care and sanitation—conditions that already lead to sudden and unexplained deaths .
“ As the virus continues to spread , it is vital that Qatari authorities ensure that all migrant workers have not only access to testing but also appropriate medical treatment , ” Cousins writes .
“ If not , there can be little doubt that cases will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , informal workers make up 83.6 percent of the workforce—a trend that tracks across the African continent .
Many of the most vulnerable among them are women , as Louise Donovan and April Zhu wrote on April 10 .
Social distancing policies and lockdowns intended to protect people from the coronavirus mean that domestic workers , cleaners , and beauticians can ’ t earn their wages and provide for their families .
“ The measures are further highlighting the gulf between the haves and have-nots , ” they write .

There are now more than 1.9 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus worldwide, and some 121,000 people have died from the disease that it causes, COVID-19. After weeks of mass closures and lockdowns, global economic activity is collapsing , with the fallout still difficult to comprehend. The pandemic shows just how communities around the world can be connected through a shared experience—in this case, one of suffering.
There are now more than 1.9 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus worldwide, and some 121,000 people have died from the disease that it causes, COVID-19. After weeks of mass closures and lockdowns, global economic activity is collapsing, with the fallout still difficult to comprehend. The pandemic shows just how communities around the world can be connected through a shared experience—in this case, one of suffering.
But it is already clear that the coronavirus threatens some more than others: refugees, migrant laborers, those with poor access to health care or basic sanitation, or those who can’t afford to miss work. For example, preliminary data released by local governments in the United States shows that the coronavirus is disproportionately affecting black Americans, reflecting long-standing inequalities. The pandemic also throws into sharp relief global disparities. The United Nations has warned that countries with existing humanitarian crises will be hit the hardest, as Foreign Policy’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer reported on March 23.
From prisoners in overcrowded systems to migrant workers far from home, we’ve gathered some of our best articles from recent weeks about the populations around the world that are likely to suffer disproportionately from the virus and its societal effects—and what might be done to safeguard their health.
“Prisons are a humanitarian crisis in the making,” Vera Mironova wrote on April 1. Many democratic countries, such as the United States, France, and Germany, have released nonviolent prisoners or deferred sentences to reduce overcrowding and coronavirus exposure. But prisoners in nondemocratic countries face different responses, from canceled amnesties to rationing medical supplies or food. Such conditions aren’t sustainable: Prisoners in Colombia, Chad, and Brazil have already rioted or escaped as the crisis goes on.
“There is only one way for nondemocratic countries to ensure some level of prison system stability in these unstable times,” Mironova writes. “They need to follow the advice of human rights organizations: free some inmates, improve medical treatment, and make lockdown as bearable as possible for prisoners.”
There are more than 25 million refugees in camps around the world, a population identified by U.N. officials as one of the most vulnerable to a second phase of the coronavirus as it spreads through crowded quarters—and as aid budgets shrink amid the economic crisis. But many countries that host refugees do not have pandemic plans that explicitly address their specific needs—and they should, as Sanjana Ravi wrote on March 27.
The majority of refugees live in low- or middle-income countries, where there are higher rates of malnutrition and diseases that weaken the immune system. They also face barriers to access. “Nationalism, isolationism, and xenophobia—forces that further marginalize refugees and make health care harder to access—are antithetical to effective pandemic response,” she writes. “If refugees are afraid or unable to seek medical care, it will be impossible to halt the spread of coronavirus.”
On March 30, Ivan Flores reported from a border camp in Matamoros, Mexico, that houses around 2,500 asylum-seekers and is underprepared for a coronavirus outbreak. “In the tightly packed Matamoros camp, social distancing is impossible, and high-level health care is inaccessible,” Flores writes. On the Don’t Touch Your Face podcast, Sam Bishop, a project coordinator for a humanitarian organization working at the Matamoros camp, told Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon: “If we get an outbreak here … there’s going to be no way to effectively quarantine these people for most of the camp.”
The asylum-seekers are also worried that the pandemic will slow down their cases in the United States if the border closes, as Flores reports. They are stuck in Mexico as part of the Migrant Protection Protocols, which require U.S. asylum-seekers to remain on the other side of the border as their cases are processed—a situation made more precarious by the coronavirus.
Then there are the residents of places accustomed to political lockdowns who now face resource constraints that put them at greater risk amid the pandemic. India-administered Kashmir is still under a partial internet shutdown, limiting access to information about the coronavirus in a region with a shortage of ventilators and doctors, as Muddasir Ali reported from Srinagar on April 13. Jammu and Kashmir has 278 confirmed cases so far. “The entire world is united in the fight against this disease, sharing experiences and information online, but we have been isolated thanks to the continued curbs on the internet,” one doctor told him.
A significant outbreak would also compound the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, which has reported 13 cases. Israel wields decisive power over the blockaded territory, and Gaza lacks the health care infrastructure to respond to the pandemic on its own, as Joshua Mitnick reported on March 26. “Already, thousands of patients from Gaza get special permission to cross the border to receive treatment for various maladies in Israeli hospitals,” he writes. “A coronavirus outbreak in Israel could likely shut that passage.”
Finally, there are those who are disproportionately affected by the societal and economic effects of coronavirus lockdowns and containment measures. On March 27, the journalist Harriet Williamson wrote that self-isolation endangers those already suffering from domestic violence in particular. In China, she notes, reports of domestic violence surged after quarantine measures were enacted in January. “If people are forced to self-isolate, they are at risk of being trapped in abusive and coercive situations, with less opportunity to access vital services,” Williamson writes.
The last month has also revealed that for many, “social distancing is a curious privilege,” as Rana Ayyub put it on March 28. Though India has been under a nationwide lockdown since March 24, migrant wage laborers in big cities are still going to work because they can’t afford to miss a day’s pay. “A country that is already grappling with its worst unemployment rate in decades and a rising and divisive nationalism now must deal with a pandemic that will strike a major blow to its economy—especially for its so-called informal workers who have no health care, benefits, or safety nets to fall back on,” she writes.
Farther from home, migrant workers in Qatar are still toiling on stadium and infrastructure construction projects ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The laborers, many of whom come from across South Asia, are highly vulnerable, Sophie Cousins wrote on April 8. They face labor exploitation, live in close quarters, and lack access to health care and sanitation—conditions that already lead to sudden and unexplained deaths. “As the virus continues to spread, it is vital that Qatari authorities ensure that all migrant workers have not only access to testing but also appropriate medical treatment,” Cousins writes. “If not, there can be little doubt that cases will explode among migrant workers.”
In Kenya, informal workers make up 83.6 percent of the workforce—a trend that tracks across the African continent. Many of the most vulnerable among them are women, as Louise Donovan and April Zhu wrote on April 10. Social distancing policies and lockdowns intended to protect people from the coronavirus mean that domestic workers, cleaners, and beauticians can’t earn their wages and provide for their families. “The measures are further highlighting the gulf between the haves and have-nots,” they write.