foreignpolicy--2020-04-17--In Afghanistan, Coronavirus Could Be Deadlier Than War

In Afghanistan , Coronavirus Could Be Deadlier Than War Until recently , billboards around Kabul were emblazoned with a simple phrase : “ Imagine Peace.
” Now , they instruct people to wash their hands .
Afghan security forces weren ’ t only armed with guns when they rushed to the scene of a brutal massacre of Sikh worshippers by an Islamic State-affiliated gunman on March 25 ; they also wore protective masks and gloves .
Dreams of an end to violence are as distant as ever because Afghanistan now faces a more imminent and potentially deadly threat than terrorism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As of April 16 , Afghanistan had 840 confirmed cases of COVID-19 , with 30 deaths .
If estimates released by the Ministry of Public Health are accurate , Afghanistan is heading for a catastrophe .
Unless serious containment measures are enforced and adhered to throughout the country , the ministry anticipates that as many as 25 million Afghans will be infected with the coronavirus , leading to 110,000 deaths .
In other words , if this model is correct , more people will die of COVID-19 in Afghanistan than the estimated 100,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 18 years ago .
The coronavirus crisis could not have come at a worse time for Afghanistan , which is on the brink of losing critical U.S. military and financial support .
U.S. and NATO forces have already begun pulling troops from the country and will continue regardless of whether or not the Taliban and Kabul government make it to the negotiating table .
The fragile U.S.-Taliban deal agreed in February is already fraying at the seams , while talks between the Taliban and Afghan government initially stalled amid an impasse over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ released from both sides , offering some hope that peace talks can progress , but if the precarious arrangement collapses , Afghan government forces will be left to fight the Taliban alone .
Meanwhile , the Afghan government itself is on the verge of imploding .
Following a contested election , both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah declared themselves president in February , and this leadership dispute has yet to be resolved .
As punishment , the U.S. government cut $ 1 billion of aid and threatened to slash a further $ 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution , pointed out , these cuts will undermine not only the COVID-19 response but also Afghanistan ’ s military capability .
“ We all know that without foreign money , the Afghan military will buckle , ” she warned , pointing out that some troops are already forging agreements with the Taliban , warning them of planned attacks , and refusing to fight .
Without money to maintain unity in a military comprising multiple tribal factions , it will likely split up along ethnic lines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now seeking to hold back a tide of new coronavirus cases .
Afghanistan ’ s fragile health care system , creaking under the strain of extreme poverty and decades of war , lacks the capacity to adequately test or track cases .
As of April 13 , the Afghan government had tested just 4,314 people for the virus , with a further 542 tests announced in parliament on April 15 .
“ We have a shortage of resources .
We have a shortage of funds .
We have a shortage of equipment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Ghani .
“ But what is important is that we understand the gravity of the situation and we are pulling all of our resources and capacities to deal with it.
” Few believe these resources and capacity will be enough .
Speaking on condition of anonymity , one doctor in Kabul painted a bleak picture .
“ When I arrived here in the [ dedicated coronavirus ] hospital , there were no procedures , ” he said .
“ I have been here for a month , during which time I have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For patients , there is no special preparation , not enough medicine and other equipment .
Doctors purchase medicine from private pharmacies for themselves when they need it.
” Outside the capital , things are even worse .
Only two health centers can process the results of testing kits provided by the World Health Organization ( WHO ) , and in the western province of Herat , near the Iranian border , the epicenter of the crisis , testing stopped altogether when the kits ran out .
Just 300 ventilators are available to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a country of 38 million .
Even the hand sanitizer procured and distributed to dedicated hospitals by the health ministry turned out to be fake , with zero alcohol content .
Clearly , Afghanistan can not withstand a full-blown pandemic .
The country ’ s best hope is to curb the spread of the virus by persuading everyone to stay home and reduce contact .
But that is easier said than done .
In Kabul , going outside at all has long meant a gamble with death .
In Kabul , residents are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of lockdown and self-isolation .
Police checkpoints are an everyday occurrence .
The capital has faced the daily risk of suicide attacks , car bombs , and military assaults for nearly two decades , meaning parts of the city are often abruptly shut down and people trapped inside homes and offices for extended periods of time .
Many people steer clear of crowds and busy areas , having seen these targeted for violence over and over again , with mass casualties .
Going outside at all has long meant a gamble with death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kabul ( and several other provinces ) presents a new set of challenges .
Few Afghan people can afford to forgo their income for weeks on end , but those prevented from leaving their homes can ’ t work or provide for their families .
International assistance barely scratches the surface of the problem ; a World Bank grant of $ 100 million to fund the medical response pales in comparison with the lost $ 1 billion from the United States , and no donations have yet been earmarked to mitigate the economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stuck at home .
Food prices are soaring , while aid packages in the capital have so far been limited to a one-time allocation of a few pounds of wheat and lentils per family .
Desperate people still risk wandering the streets , looking for work .
At night , the tension is palpable ; frustrated residents , crowded in their homes , can be heard shouting “ Allahu akbar ” from their rooftops .
Officials are striving to educate people on the dangers of contagion through the channels available ; when you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you must first listen to a prerecorded message of government advice in Pashto and Dari .
Despite this , many Afghans struggle to buy basic supplies like face masks or are simply too preoccupied with other afflictions and day-to-day suffering to care about the threat of a new disease , said Noorullah Navayee , a researcher at the National Centre for Policy Research in Kabul .
For vulnerable groups like internally displaced people , the homeless , and drug addicts , following official advice on social distancing is often impossible .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s outbreak , street vendors staged a protest against the daylight curfew outside the city governor ’ s compound on March 26 , demanding the lockdown be rescinded to allow them to earn a living .
Local community groups have mobilized to support one another , but government-issued food packages do not appear to have materialized , and it ’ s unclear how long this can sustain a population already plagued by poverty and drought .
“ Afghanistan ’ s informal sector dominates the entire economic structure of the country , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you tell people , ‘ don ’ t go on the street to sell your kebab , ’ when people will literally starve to death ?
” Even if the authorities manage to contain people already in cities , tracking and restricting movement into and around the country is a formidable task .
In recent weeks , at least 130,000 Afghan migrants returned from Iran , one of the world ’ s hardest-hit nations .
Attention has focused on returnees to western Herat from Iran , where most cases have been detected , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a member of parliament , between 3,000 and 6,000 Afghans also return each day to the as-yet-neglected province of Nimruz , which borders southeastern Iran .
The province ’ s capital , Zaranj , is less than an hour ’ s drive from the Iranian town of Zabol and three hours from Zahedan , both of which house prisons that human rights groups believe have hushed up riots over outbreaks of COVID-19 .
What ’ s more , in a bid to stop the virus spreading in their own crowded prisons ( as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Afghan government now plans to release 10,000 inmates .
For those already exposed to COVID-19 , this could mean transporting the virus into their communities—and for those without family left to take them in , it ’ s unclear where they will go .
The one Afghan industry most likely to weather any crisis is also one positioned to spread the virus from region to region : poppy farming for the heroin trade .
“ The harvest takes place in different periods and different regions of the country , and they migrate with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a former U.S. State Department official .
“ Obviously that ’ s not consistent with social distancing.
” Felbab-Brown , too , expects the multibillion-dollar trade to grow as legitimate jobs fall away , exacerbating internal migration flows within Afghanistan .
And then , of course , there ’ s the biggest challenge of all : How do you maintain control in a crisis when a country is still at war ?
The government is not alone in calling for a truce to beat the virus .
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yousef al-Othaimeen , the secretary-general of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation , appealed to Afghan leaders to unite .
For a moment , it seemed the Taliban might actually be on board .
The group announced , first , that it would give safe passage to WHO and the Red Cross and , later , that it would consider a cease-fire in areas hit hard by COVID-19 .
On March 26 , it even disseminated images of mask-wearing militants and health workers in hazmat suits lined up ( at socially distanced intervals ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in militant-held Kunduz .
COVID-19 had , it seemed , momentarily achieved what years of fighting and negotiations had not : The Afghan government and the Taliban appeared to be working toward a common goal .
Any optimism was short-lived , however .
In the week that followed those photos , at least 12 civilians and 75 pro-government police and soldiers were killed .
On March 29 , the militant group captured new territory , the Yamgan district in northern Badakhshan , a province that confirmed a case of COVID-19 a few days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which has seen 13 cases and four deaths from COVID-19 , heavy fighting continues ; on April 7 , the Taliban executed seven civilian captives , including three children .
There has been one glimmer of hope : Government health workers met with the Taliban on April 15 to coordinate a response to the pandemic in Faryab , but it remains to be seen if cooperation will extend beyond this one province or whether it will encourage fighting to stop elsewhere .
The very real prospect of a coronavirus outbreak eliminating aging power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already precarious political situation into a new era of chaos .
For Taliban leaders , the weakness of Kabul ’ s position presents a quandary : Do they seize the strategic opportunity to step up aggression , even though this will inevitably spread the pandemic beyond their control ?
The choice is stark .
Any leader or group considered by their supporters to fail them in this moment of crisis will weaken that support and , with it , hard-fought legitimacy and power .
Many other nonstate actors around the world are jumping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protectors against the pandemic .
After all , it ’ s not only civilians who risk losing their lives to the virus but Taliban leaders and negotiators—many of whom fall squarely in the high-risk age bracket .
Indeed , the very real prospect of a coronavirus outbreak eliminating aging power brokers on all sides could push an already precarious political situation into a new era of chaos .
“ Imagine that everybody who is older than 50 dies of COVID-19 among the Taliban leadership , ” Felbab-Brown said .
“ Will the rise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change the attitudes toward negotiating ?
Will there be more calls for the fighting to end , or will they be more intransigent in the negotiation ?
” It ’ s a level of uncertainty for which neither side is prepared .
Harsh winter weather slowed fighting in much of the country , but as the snow melts , the Taliban will have to decide whether to intensify attacks .
If they do , hopes of stability in Afghanistan will slip away—and with them , any chance of controlling the pandemic .

Ezzatullah Mehrdad, Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern

Until recently, billboards around Kabul were emblazoned with a simple phrase: “Imagine Peace.” Now, they instruct people to wash their hands.
Afghan security forces weren’t only armed with guns when they rushed to the scene of a brutal massacre of Sikh worshippers by an Islamic State-affiliated gunman on March 25; they also wore protective masks and gloves. Dreams of an end to violence are as distant as ever because Afghanistan now faces a more imminent and potentially deadly threat than terrorism or even the Taliban: COVID-19.
As of April 16, Afghanistan had 840 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 30 deaths. If estimates released by the Ministry of Public Health are accurate, Afghanistan is heading for a catastrophe. Unless serious containment measures are enforced and adhered to throughout the country, the ministry anticipates that as many as 25 million Afghans will be infected with the coronavirus, leading to 110,000 deaths. In other words, if this model is correct, more people will die of COVID-19 in Afghanistan than the estimated 100,000 civilians killed since the conflict began more than 18 years ago.
The coronavirus crisis could not have come at a worse time for Afghanistan, which is on the brink of losing critical U.S. military and financial support. U.S. and NATO forces have already begun pulling troops from the country and will continue regardless of whether or not the Taliban and Kabul government make it to the negotiating table. The fragile U.S.-Taliban deal agreed in February is already fraying at the seams, while talks between the Taliban and Afghan government initially stalled amid an impasse over prisoner swaps. Prisoners have now been released from both sides, offering some hope that peace talks can progress, but if the precarious arrangement collapses, Afghan government forces will be left to fight the Taliban alone.
If estimates released by the Ministry of Public Health are accurate, Afghanistan is heading for a catastrophe.
Meanwhile, the Afghan government itself is on the verge of imploding. Following a contested election, both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah declared themselves president in February, and this leadership dispute has yet to be resolved. As punishment, the U.S. government cut $1 billion of aid and threatened to slash a further $1 billion in 2021. As Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out, these cuts will undermine not only the COVID-19 response but also Afghanistan’s military capability. “We all know that without foreign money, the Afghan military will buckle,” she warned, pointing out that some troops are already forging agreements with the Taliban, warning them of planned attacks, and refusing to fight. Without money to maintain unity in a military comprising multiple tribal factions, it will likely split up along ethnic lines, she said.
The country is now seeking to hold back a tide of new coronavirus cases. Afghanistan’s fragile health care system, creaking under the strain of extreme poverty and decades of war, lacks the capacity to adequately test or track cases. As of April 13, the Afghan government had tested just 4,314 people for the virus, with a further 542 tests announced in parliament on April 15.
“We have a shortage of resources. We have a shortage of funds. We have a shortage of equipment,” said Waheed Omar, an advisor to Ghani. “But what is important is that we understand the gravity of the situation and we are pulling all of our resources and capacities to deal with it.”
Few believe these resources and capacity will be enough. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one doctor in Kabul painted a bleak picture. “When I arrived here in the [dedicated coronavirus] hospital, there were no procedures,” he said. “I have been here for a month, during which time I have received no training on the coronavirus. For patients, there is no special preparation, not enough medicine and other equipment. Doctors purchase medicine from private pharmacies for themselves when they need it.”
Outside the capital, things are even worse. Only two health centers can process the results of testing kits provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), and in the western province of Herat, near the Iranian border, the epicenter of the crisis, testing stopped altogether when the kits ran out. Just 300 ventilators are available to treat those affected by the virus in a country of 38 million. Even the hand sanitizer procured and distributed to dedicated hospitals by the health ministry turned out to be fake, with zero alcohol content.
Clearly, Afghanistan cannot withstand a full-blown pandemic. The country’s best hope is to curb the spread of the virus by persuading everyone to stay home and reduce contact. But that is easier said than done.
In Kabul, going outside at all has long meant a gamble with death.
In Kabul, residents are better prepared than most for the demands of lockdown and self-isolation. Police checkpoints are an everyday occurrence. The capital has faced the daily risk of suicide attacks, car bombs, and military assaults for nearly two decades, meaning parts of the city are often abruptly shut down and people trapped inside homes and offices for extended periods of time. Many people steer clear of crowds and busy areas, having seen these targeted for violence over and over again, with mass casualties. Going outside at all has long meant a gamble with death.
But the three-week lockdown announced in Kabul (and several other provinces) presents a new set of challenges. Few Afghan people can afford to forgo their income for weeks on end, but those prevented from leaving their homes can’t work or provide for their families. International assistance barely scratches the surface of the problem; a World Bank grant of $100 million to fund the medical response pales in comparison with the lost $1 billion from the United States, and no donations have yet been earmarked to mitigate the economic impact or loss of wages for Afghans stuck at home.
Food prices are soaring, while aid packages in the capital have so far been limited to a one-time allocation of a few pounds of wheat and lentils per family. Desperate people still risk wandering the streets, looking for work. At night, the tension is palpable; frustrated residents, crowded in their homes, can be heard shouting “Allahu akbar” from their rooftops.
Officials are striving to educate people on the dangers of contagion through the channels available; when you make a phone call, for example, you must first listen to a prerecorded message of government advice in Pashto and Dari. Despite this, many Afghans struggle to buy basic supplies like face masks or are simply too preoccupied with other afflictions and day-to-day suffering to care about the threat of a new disease, said Noorullah Navayee, a researcher at the National Centre for Policy Research in Kabul. For vulnerable groups like internally displaced people, the homeless, and drug addicts, following official advice on social distancing is often impossible.
In Herat, the epicenter of the country’s outbreak, street vendors staged a protest against the daylight curfew outside the city governor’s compound on March 26, demanding the lockdown be rescinded to allow them to earn a living. Local community groups have mobilized to support one another, but government-issued food packages do not appear to have materialized, and it’s unclear how long this can sustain a population already plagued by poverty and drought. “Afghanistan’s informal sector dominates the entire economic structure of the country,” Felbab-Brown said. “So how can you tell people, ‘don’t go on the street to sell your kebab,’ when people will literally starve to death?”
Even if the authorities manage to contain people already in cities, tracking and restricting movement into and around the country is a formidable task. In recent weeks, at least 130,000 Afghan migrants returned from Iran, one of the world’s hardest-hit nations. Attention has focused on returnees to western Herat from Iran, where most cases have been detected, but according to Gul Ahmad Noorzad, a member of parliament, between 3,000 and 6,000 Afghans also return each day to the as-yet-neglected province of Nimruz, which borders southeastern Iran. The province’s capital, Zaranj, is less than an hour’s drive from the Iranian town of Zabol and three hours from Zahedan, both of which house prisons that human rights groups believe have hushed up riots over outbreaks of COVID-19.
What’s more, in a bid to stop the virus spreading in their own crowded prisons (as it has done elsewhere), the Afghan government now plans to release 10,000 inmates. For those already exposed to COVID-19, this could mean transporting the virus into their communities—and for those without family left to take them in, it’s unclear where they will go.
The one Afghan industry most likely to weather any crisis is also one positioned to spread the virus from region to region: poppy farming for the heroin trade. “The harvest takes place in different periods and different regions of the country, and they migrate with the harvest,” said Barnett Rubin, a former U.S. State Department official. “Obviously that’s not consistent with social distancing.” Felbab-Brown, too, expects the multibillion-dollar trade to grow as legitimate jobs fall away, exacerbating internal migration flows within Afghanistan.
And then, of course, there’s the biggest challenge of all: How do you maintain control in a crisis when a country is still at war? The government is not alone in calling for a truce to beat the virus. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has called for a global humanitarian cease-fire. Yousef al-Othaimeen, the secretary-general of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, appealed to Afghan leaders to unite.
For a moment, it seemed the Taliban might actually be on board. The group announced, first, that it would give safe passage to WHO and the Red Cross and, later, that it would consider a cease-fire in areas hit hard by COVID-19. On March 26, it even disseminated images of mask-wearing militants and health workers in hazmat suits lined up (at socially distanced intervals) on either side of the Taliban flag in militant-held Kunduz. COVID-19 had, it seemed, momentarily achieved what years of fighting and negotiations had not: The Afghan government and the Taliban appeared to be working toward a common goal.
Any optimism was short-lived, however. In the week that followed those photos, at least 12 civilians and 75 pro-government police and soldiers were killed. On March 29, the militant group captured new territory, the Yamgan district in northern Badakhshan, a province that confirmed a case of COVID-19 a few days later. In northern Balkh province, which has seen 13 cases and four deaths from COVID-19, heavy fighting continues; on April 7, the Taliban executed seven civilian captives, including three children. There has been one glimmer of hope: Government health workers met with the Taliban on April 13 to coordinate a response to the pandemic in Faryab, but it remains to be seen if cooperation will extend beyond this one province or whether it will encourage fighting to stop elsewhere.
The very real prospect of a coronavirus outbreak eliminating aging power brokers on all sides could push an already precarious political situation into a new era of chaos.
For Taliban leaders, the weakness of Kabul’s position presents a quandary: Do they seize the strategic opportunity to step up aggression, even though this will inevitably spread the pandemic beyond their control? The choice is stark. Any leader or group considered by their supporters to fail them in this moment of crisis will weaken that support and, with it, hard-fought legitimacy and power. Many other nonstate actors around the world are jumping at the chance to position themselves as protectors against the pandemic. After all, it’s not only civilians who risk losing their lives to the virus but Taliban leaders and negotiators—many of whom fall squarely in the high-risk age bracket.
Indeed, the very real prospect of a coronavirus outbreak eliminating aging power brokers on all sides could push an already precarious political situation into a new era of chaos. “Imagine that everybody who is older than 50 dies of COVID-19 among the Taliban leadership,” Felbab-Brown said. “Will the rise of middle-level commanders in such a scenario change the attitudes toward negotiating? Will there be more calls for the fighting to end, or will they be more intransigent in the negotiation?” It’s a level of uncertainty for which neither side is prepared.
Harsh winter weather slowed fighting in much of the country, but as the snow melts, the Taliban will have to decide whether to intensify attacks. If they do, hopes of stability in Afghanistan will slip away—and with them, any chance of controlling the pandemic.
Correction, April 30, 2020: Government officials in Faryab met with the Taliban to discuss a coordinated approach to the pandemic on April 13. A previous version of this story mistakenly said they met on April 15.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-17--Bolsonaro Fires Brazil’s Health Minister as Infections Grow

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro fires his popular health minister after clashes over the coronavirus response , the White House announces plan to ease lockdown , and Japan extends its state of emergency to cover the whole country .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has fired Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta after repeated clashes over how to handle the country ’ s coronavirus epidemic .
Bolsonaro tried to downplay the departure of the minister , who strongly advocated social distancing , as a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came after he gave a TV interview urging the government to speak with one voice—an implicit criticism of his boss .
The decision was met with outrage across Brazil as locked down citizens took to apartment balconies to bang pots and pans and shouts of “ Bolsonaro Murder ” were heard across central Rio de Janeiro .
How bad is the pandemic in Brazil ?
The coronavirus has not yet reached its peak in Brazil .
Confirmed cases have soared to more than 30,000 and nearly 2,000 Brazilians have died—including members of indigenous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the true toll could be much higher given the lack of widespread testing .
Models from Imperial College London predicted that Brazil could face a staggering 1.1 million deaths if it takes no action to control the pandemic and more than 500,000 if only the elderly were forced to isolate .
The death toll would drop to 44,000 with extreme lockdown measures and widespread testing .
Will the new minister abandon distancing ?
“ Don ’ t think that we are going to escape a sharp rise in cases of this illness , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Thursday .
“ The health system still isn ’ t ready.
” Mandetta encouraged his former staff to challenge denialism and mount an “ unyielding defense of life and science ” in what many observers saw as a not-so-veiled jab at the president .
“ Don ’ t be afraid , ” he said .
“ Science is light … and it is through science that we will find a way out of this.
” Mandetta ’ s successor , Nelson Teich , is an oncologist .
Teich sounded a cautious note @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brazil needs a comprehensive testing system while assuring citizens that there would not be an “ abrupt decision ” on social distancing .
But at the same time he echoed Bolsonaro ’ s message of getting back to work “ as quickly as possible , ” suggesting that he could seek to satisfy his boss rather than use the health ministry ’ s authority to encourage strict lockdowns .
Will this dent the president ’ s popularity ?
Bolsonaro has taken an increasingly skeptical view of the severity of the coronavirus crisis calling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arguing that people were being “ tricked by these governors and by the large part of the media when it comes to coronavirus.
” The Brazilian columnist Leandro Colon predicted before Mandetta ’ s dismissal that such a rash move by Bolsonaro might help speed the populist president ’ s downfall .
Writing in the daily Folha de São Paulo , Colon argued that sacking Mandetta could potentially isolate Bolsonaro and ignite “ a political reaction of major proportions.
” Trump seeks to ease lockdown .
The White House on Thursday announced plans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans to normal life just 31 days after it declared social distancing measures .
The plan involves a three-phase approach based on benchmarks : Those benchmarks include a downward trajectory of flu-like illnesses over 14 days , a downward trajectory of all confirmed coronavirus cases over 14 days , and having a “ robust ” testing program in place for health care workers .
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s strong words on his ultimate authority to enforce a return to normal life , the new White House blueprint involves plenty of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is “ implementable at governors ’ discretion , ” the document says .
The plan is low on specifics , however , and doesn ’ t mention any plans to scale up testing or contact tracing—measures that have allowed other countries to begin to return to normal .
In South Korea , for example , all new arrivals from overseas are subject to mandatory testing and must download a government app that tracks a user ’ s location and allows them to report symptoms .
South Korea is also planning to use tracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are observing quarantine measures .
Such strict measures have not yet been considered in the United States , although the White House is reportedly exploring ways to increase U.S. testing capacity .
Japan extends state of emergency and plans cash payouts .
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe extended the country ’ s state of emergency beyond Tokyo and six other prefectures to include the entire country .
Japan has so far avoided a full lockdown , but the new measures will allow authorities to encourage residents to stay at home ahead of Golden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month .
Abe also announced plans to give each Japanese citizen 100,000 yen ( almost $ 1,000 ) to soften any financial hardships experienced due to the pandemic .
Japan has recorded almost 9,000 coronavirus cases in its population of 126 million , with 178 deaths reported .
Yemen envoy expecting cease-fire .
Martin Griffiths , the United Nations Special Envoy to Yemen , said he expects the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and the Houthis to formally agree to a cease-fire “ in the immediate future.
” In a statement to the U.N. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be part of a package of measures that include economic and humanitarian relief as well as a resumption of political dialogue .
The Saudi-led coalition began a unilateral cease-fire last week , however the Houthis have continued to launch missile and artillery attacks .
UN issues warning on children .
The United Nations has warned that hundreds of thousands of children could die and that millions are at risk of extreme poverty due to the impending economic downturn .
“ What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no one behind , ” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said .
The U.N. estimated that 369 million children will miss out on regular meals as a result of school closures and that distance learning had only been implemented in 30 percent of schools in low-income countries .
Antiviral drug shows promising results .
Early results from clinical trials on the antiviral drug remdesivir have shown positive signs in treating severe coronavirus patients .
Of the 125 patients entered into a trial at a hospital in Chicago , almost all were discharged within a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not mean a cure has been found and the trial was conducted without a placebo since it was conducted on severely ill patients .
“ The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged , which is great .
We ’ ve only had two patients perish , ” Kathleen Mullane , an infectious disease specialist overseeing the study , said during a video discussion of the trial results .
A 99-year-old World War II veteran , Tom Moore , has raised almost $ 16 million for charities supporting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a challenge of walking 100 lengths of his back garden .
Moore received over 648,000 individual donations toward his goal after his daughter suggested the challenge following his recent hip replacement surgery .
“ He has served his country in the past and he ’ s serving his country now , ” U.K. Health Secretary Hancock told the BBC .
“ We all need a bit of cheering up sometimes.
” Moore will turn 100 this month .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro fires his popular health minister after clashes over the coronavirus response, the White House announces plan to ease lockdown , and Japan extends its state of emergency to cover the whole country.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro fires his popular health minister after clashes over the coronavirus response, the White House announces plan to ease lockdown, and Japan extends its state of emergency to cover the whole country.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Brazilian Health Minister Ousted as Bolsonaro Continues to Downplay Pandemic
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has fired Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta after repeated clashes over how to handle the country’s coronavirus epidemic. Bolsonaro tried to downplay the departure of the minister, who strongly advocated social distancing, as a “consensual divorce.” Mandetta’s exit came after he gave a TV interview urging the government to speak with one voice—an implicit criticism of his boss. The decision was met with outrage across Brazil as locked down citizens took to apartment balconies to bang pots and pans and shouts of “Bolsonaro Murder” were heard across central Rio de Janeiro.
How bad is the pandemic in Brazil? The coronavirus has not yet reached its peak in Brazil. Confirmed cases have soared to more than 30,000 and nearly 2,000 Brazilians have died—including members of indigenous tribes in remote Amazon rainforests. But the true toll could be much higher given the lack of widespread testing.
Models from Imperial College London predicted that Brazil could face a staggering 1.1 million deaths if it takes no action to control the pandemic and more than 500,000 if only the elderly were forced to isolate. The death toll would drop to 44,000 with extreme lockdown measures and widespread testing.
Will the new minister abandon distancing? “Don’t think that we are going to escape a sharp rise in cases of this illness,” Mandetta said in his final briefing on Thursday. “The health system still isn’t ready.” Mandetta encouraged his former staff to challenge denialism and mount an “unyielding defense of life and science” in what many observers saw as a not-so-veiled jab at the president. “Don’t be afraid,” he said. “Science is light … and it is through science that we will find a way out of this.”
Mandetta’s successor, Nelson Teich, is an oncologist. Teich sounded a cautious note after taking the helm, arguing that Brazil needs a comprehensive testing system while assuring citizens that there would not be an “abrupt decision” on social distancing. But at the same time he echoed Bolsonaro’s message of getting back to work “as quickly as possible,” suggesting that he could seek to satisfy his boss rather than use the health ministry’s authority to encourage strict lockdowns.
Will this dent the president’s popularity? Bolsonaro has taken an increasingly skeptical view of the severity of the coronavirus crisis calling it a “little flu” and arguing that people were being “tricked by these governors and by the large part of the media when it comes to coronavirus.” The Brazilian columnist Leandro Colon predicted before Mandetta’s dismissal that such a rash move by Bolsonaro might help speed the populist president’s downfall. Writing in the daily Folha de São Paulo, Colon argued that sacking Mandetta could potentially isolate Bolsonaro and ignite “a political reaction of major proportions.”
What We’re Following Today Trump seeks to ease lockdown. The White House on Thursday announced plans to ease lockdown protocols and begin returning Americans to normal life just 31 days after it declared social distancing measures. The plan involves a three-phase approach based on benchmarks: Those benchmarks include a downward trajectory of flu-like illnesses over 14 days, a downward trajectory of all confirmed coronavirus cases over 14 days, and having a “robust” testing program in place for health care workers. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s strong words on his ultimate authority to enforce a return to normal life, the new White House blueprint involves plenty of deference to state governors. The plan is “implementable at governors’ discretion,” the document says. The plan is low on specifics, however, and doesn’t mention any plans to scale up testing or contact tracing—measures that have allowed other countries to begin to return to normal. In South Korea, for example, all new arrivals from overseas are subject to mandatory testing and must download a government app that tracks a user’s location and allows them to report symptoms. South Korea is also planning to use tracking bracelets to make sure those with symptoms are observing quarantine measures. Such strict measures have not yet been considered in the United States, although the White House is reportedly exploring ways to increase U.S. testing capacity.
Japan extends state of emergency and plans cash payouts. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe extended the country’s state of emergency beyond Tokyo and six other prefectures to include the entire country. Japan has so far avoided a full lockdown, but the new measures will allow authorities to encourage residents to stay at home ahead of Golden Week holidays at the end of the month. Abe also announced plans to give each Japanese citizen 100,000 yen (almost $1,000) to soften any financial hardships experienced due to the pandemic. Japan has recorded almost 9,000 coronavirus cases in its population of 126 million, with 178 deaths reported.
Yemen envoy expecting cease-fire. Martin Griffiths, the United Nations Special Envoy to Yemen, said he expects the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and the Houthis to formally agree to a cease-fire “in the immediate future.” In a statement to the U.N. Security Council, Griffiths said the cease-fire would be part of a package of measures that include economic and humanitarian relief as well as a resumption of political dialogue. The Saudi-led coalition began a unilateral cease-fire last week, however the Houthis have continued to launch missile and artillery attacks.
Keep an Eye On
UN issues warning on children. The United Nations has warned that hundreds of thousands of children could die and that millions are at risk of extreme poverty due to the impending economic downturn. “What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. The U.N. estimated that 369 million children will miss out on regular meals as a result of school closures and that distance learning had only been implemented in 30 percent of schools in low-income countries.
Antiviral drug shows promising results. Early results from clinical trials on the antiviral drug remdesivir have shown positive signs in treating severe coronavirus patients. Of the 125 patients entered into a trial at a hospital in Chicago, almost all were discharged within a week of treatment. The results do not mean a cure has been found and the trial was conducted without a placebo since it was conducted on severely ill patients. “The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” Kathleen Mullane, an infectious disease specialist overseeing the study, said during a video discussion of the trial results.
Odds and Ends
A 99-year-old World War II veteran, Tom Moore, has raised almost $16 million for charities supporting the U.K. National Health Service by completing a challenge of walking 100 lengths of his back garden. Moore received over 648,000 individual donations toward his goal after his daughter suggested the challenge following his recent hip replacement surgery. “He has served his country in the past and he’s serving his country now,” U.K. Health Secretary Hancock told the BBC. “We all need a bit of cheering up sometimes.” Moore will turn 100 this month.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-17--Why the United States Is Stoking a Crisis in Kosovo

Why the United States Is Stoking a Crisis in Kosovo Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : The Trump administration ’ s Kosovo strategy threatens a political crisis , South Korea holds national elections amid the pandemic , and UNICEF warns that measles and polio could surge as immunization programs are put on hold .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , please sign up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good deal , but his efforts to broker international agreements have often fallen short .
Even so , his administration is looking to score a foreign-policy victory by brokering a final peace deal between Serbia and Kosovo , which fought a war in the late 1990s .
Kosovo declared independence in 2008 , but Serbia and Russia have so far refused to join the United States and 100 other countries in recognizing its freedom .
On Monday , top U.S. Democrats on the House and Senate Foreign Relations Committees wrote to Secretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration of being “ heavy-handed ” in its approach to Kosovo .
In addition , they say Washington is overlooking Serbia ’ s campaign of derecognition against Kosovo and has failed to sanction the country over its purchase of Russian anti-aircraft weapons .
Why it ’ s relevant .
Successive U.S. administrations have supported Kosovo ’ s sovereignty , but regional experts and Democratic lawmakers fear that the Trump administration is now putting its desire for a deal—at any cost—ahead of the best interests of its long-standing ally .
A normalization of relations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to their joining the European Union , but some Kosovar officials fear being forced into redrawing the border with Serbia .
“ The real puzzle is how U.S. diplomacy came to this extreme—a contorted effort to bully a weak , vulnerable U.S. ally to placate a Serbian strongman , ” Edward P. Joseph wrote for Foreign Policy , referring to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic , who visited the White House last month .
Government collapse .
Kosovo ’ s Prime Minister Albin Kurti ’ s government collapsed on March 25 , less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Kurt Bassuener , a co-founder and senior associate of the Democratization Policy Council , a Berlin-based think tank , said that U.S. support for the vote of no confidence in Kurti ’ s government had a “ decisive ” role in the outcome .
The U.S. special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo peace negotiations , Richard Grenell , was reportedly frustrated with Kurti ’ s refusal to lift tariffs on Serbian goods , seen as an obstacle to the peace deal .
“ Kurti has been determined not to let his government ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States , ” said Eric Gordy , a professor of political and cultural sociology at University College London .
Kurti has also opposed the plan to redraw the Kosovo-Serbia border along ethnic lines .
Grenell , a Trump acolyte , has a lot on his plate : He also serves as the U.S. ambassador to Germany and acting director of national intelligence .
The art of the deal .
Kosovo is often described as the most pro-American country in the world .
The United States led a NATO bombing campaign in 1999 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new wave of ethnic cleansing against Kosovar Albanians .
But the Trump administration ’ s approach to Kosovo has thrown a wrench into the country ’ s politics as it grapples with how to respond to the coronavirus .
It also follows a pattern that is increasingly familiar to observers of Trump ’ s foreign-policy making , Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski and Victor Peskin write for Foreign Policy : Allies and career diplomats have been shunned while loyal political operatives take center stage , putting deal-making above diplomacy .
South Korea ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a former North Korean diplomat became the first defector to South Korea to win a seat in the country ’ s parliament .
Thae Yong-ho served as Pyongyang ’ s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom , but in 2016 , he became the highest-ranking North Korean official to defect to the South .
On the campaign trail , Thae said that if he were to be elected it would be a significant blow for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un .
This week ’ s parliamentary elections were widely seen as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the coronavirus .
President Moon Jae-in ’ s governing Democratic Party won by an unprecedented landslide .
For the first time in 16 years , left-leaning parties now hold a majority of seats in the South Korean parliament , a shift that could permanently reshape the country ’ s politics , “ With the latest victory , we may be witnessing South Korea ’ s version of the Reagan Revolution : an electoral victory that may well set the course of politics for the next generation toward an entirely new direction , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Policy .
Vaccination programs put on hold .
Global health experts fear that epidemics of infectious diseases such as polio and measles could surge in developing countries as vaccination programs have been put on hold amid coronavirus-related lockdowns .
On Monday , UNICEF cautioned that over 117 million children in 37 countries could miss out on receiving potentially life-saving measles vaccines .
The Trump administration ’ s decision to cut U.S. funding to the World Health Organization could also undermine global efforts to end polio , leaving eradication efforts hundreds of millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It risks piling further pressure on straining health care systems in the global south .
Growing food insecurity .
On Tuesday , the U.N. World Food program announced a 30 percent cut in food rations distributed to 1.4 million refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda .
El-Khidir Daloum , the World Food Program ’ s Uganda country director , told the Guardian that the consequences of the food reduction extended well beyond malnutrition .
“ These latest cuts will put children ’ s lives at risk and will inevitably mean that more children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Children ’ s Uganda country director , Brechtje van Lith , said in a statement .
Poland ’ s abortion restrictions .
On Wednesday , the Polish Parliament debated legislation that would strengthen already stringent restrictions on abortions .
Previous attempts to impose further limits were withdrawn in 2016 after mass protests .
Activists fear the government is now taking advantage of the coronavirus lockdown .
The new bill was sent back to a parliamentary committee for further consideration—likely a way to allow it to quietly languish , although it could still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not yet Ebola-free .
The Democratic Republic of the Congo came within days of being able to declare an end to its devastating Ebola outbreak , which has killed 2,276 people since it began in August 2018 but was brought under control with the use of two vaccines .
For the outbreak to be declared over , 42 days must pass with no new cases reported .
Forty days had elapsed when a new case was reported on April 10 , and Congo has since confirmed five more cases .
WHO said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease would spread beyond Congo , it remains a public health emergency of international concern .
Giuliani ’ s associates .
On Wednesday , a U.S. federal judge delayed the trial of two associates of Trump ’ s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani until February 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic .
Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman were indicted in October on charges of campaign finance violations for allegedly using a shell company to make an illegal donation of $ 325,000 to a committee supporting Trump ’ s reelection .
During the House impeachment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key players in the bid to oust then-U.S .
Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch from her post in Ukraine .
The trial was set to begin on Oct. 5 , which would have thrust the potentially damaging case into the spotlight in the final few weeks of Trump ’ s presidential reelection campaign .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com @

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news. Here’s what we’re watching this week: The Trump administration’s Kosovo strategy threatens a political crisis, South Korea holds national elections amid the pandemic, and UNICEF warns that measles and polio could surge as immunization programs are put on hold.
Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news. Here’s what we’re watching this week: The Trump administration’s Kosovo strategy threatens a political crisis, South Korea holds national elections amid the pandemic, and UNICEF warns that measles and polio could surge as immunization programs are put on hold.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
The U.S. Stokes a Political Crisis in Kosovo
U.S. President Donald Trump relishes a good deal, but his efforts to broker international agreements have often fallen short. Even so, his administration is looking to score a foreign-policy victory by brokering a final peace deal between Serbia and Kosovo, which fought a war in the late 1990s. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, but Serbia and Russia have so far refused to join the United States and 100 other countries in recognizing its freedom.
On Monday, top U.S. Democrats on the House and Senate Foreign Relations Committees wrote to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, accusing the administration of being “heavy-handed” in its approach to Kosovo. In addition, they say Washington is overlooking Serbia’s campaign of derecognition against Kosovo and has failed to sanction the country over its purchase of Russian anti-aircraft weapons.
Why it’s relevant. Successive U.S. administrations have supported Kosovo’s sovereignty, but regional experts and Democratic lawmakers fear that the Trump administration is now putting its desire for a deal—at any cost—ahead of the best interests of its long-standing ally. A normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo is a precondition to their joining the European Union, but some Kosovar officials fear being forced into redrawing the border with Serbia.
“The real puzzle is how U.S. diplomacy came to this extreme—a contorted effort to bully a weak, vulnerable U.S. ally to placate a Serbian strongman,” Edward P. Joseph wrote for Foreign Policy, referring to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who visited the White House last month.
Government collapse. Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s government collapsed on March 25, less than two months after it was sworn in. Kurt Bassuener, a co-founder and senior associate of the Democratization Policy Council, a Berlin-based think tank, said that U.S. support for the vote of no confidence in Kurti’s government had a “decisive” role in the outcome.
The U.S. special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo peace negotiations, Richard Grenell, was reportedly frustrated with Kurti’s refusal to lift tariffs on Serbian goods, seen as an obstacle to the peace deal. “Kurti has been determined not to let his government’s regional policy be dictated by the United States,” said Eric Gordy, a professor of political and cultural sociology at University College London. Kurti has also opposed the plan to redraw the Kosovo-Serbia border along ethnic lines. Grenell, a Trump acolyte, has a lot on his plate: He also serves as the U.S. ambassador to Germany and acting director of national intelligence.
The art of the deal. Kosovo is often described as the most pro-American country in the world. The United States led a NATO bombing campaign in 1999 to repel Serbian forces, which had begun a new wave of ethnic cleansing against Kosovar Albanians. But the Trump administration’s approach to Kosovo has thrown a wrench into the country’s politics as it grapples with how to respond to the coronavirus. It also follows a pattern that is increasingly familiar to observers of Trump’s foreign-policy making, Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski and Victor Peskin write for Foreign Policy: Allies and career diplomats have been shunned while loyal political operatives take center stage, putting deal-making above diplomacy.
What We’re Following
South Korea’s parliament moves left. On Wednesday, a former North Korean diplomat became the first defector to South Korea to win a seat in the country’s parliament. Thae Yong-ho served as Pyongyang’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, but in 2016, he became the highest-ranking North Korean official to defect to the South. On the campaign trail, Thae said that if he were to be elected it would be a significant blow for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This week’s parliamentary elections were widely seen as a referendum on the government’s response to the coronavirus. President Moon Jae-in’s governing Democratic Party won by an unprecedented landslide.
For the first time in 16 years, left-leaning parties now hold a majority of seats in the South Korean parliament, a shift that could permanently reshape the country’s politics, “With the latest victory, we may be witnessing South Korea’s version of the Reagan Revolution: an electoral victory that may well set the course of politics for the next generation toward an entirely new direction,” S. Nathan Park writes in Foreign Policy.
Vaccination programs put on hold. Global health experts fear that epidemics of infectious diseases such as polio and measles could surge in developing countries as vaccination programs have been put on hold amid coronavirus-related lockdowns. On Monday, UNICEF cautioned that over 117 million children in 37 countries could miss out on receiving potentially life-saving measles vaccines.
The Trump administration’s decision to cut U.S. funding to the World Health Organization could also undermine global efforts to end polio, leaving eradication efforts hundreds of millions of dollars short, reports NBC News. It risks piling further pressure on straining health care systems in the global south.
Growing food insecurity. On Tuesday, the U.N. World Food program announced a 30 percent cut in food rations distributed to 1.4 million refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda. El-Khidir Daloum, the World Food Program’s Uganda country director, told the Guardian that the consequences of the food reduction extended well beyond malnutrition. “These latest cuts will put children’s lives at risk and will inevitably mean that more children face abuse and exploitation,” Save the Children’s Uganda country director, Brechtje van Lith, said in a statement.
Keep an Eye On
Poland’s abortion restrictions. On Wednesday, the Polish Parliament debated legislation that would strengthen already stringent restrictions on abortions. Previous attempts to impose further limits were withdrawn in 2016 after mass protests. Activists fear the government is now taking advantage of the coronavirus lockdown. The new bill was sent back to a parliamentary committee for further consideration—likely a way to allow it to quietly languish, although it could still resurface, the Guardian reports.
Congo is not yet Ebola-free. The Democratic Republic of the Congo came within days of being able to declare an end to its devastating Ebola outbreak, which has killed 2,276 people since it began in August 2018 but was brought under control with the use of two vaccines. For the outbreak to be declared over, 42 days must pass with no new cases reported. Forty days had elapsed when a new case was reported on April 10, and Congo has since confirmed five more cases. WHO said that while there is little risk the disease would spread beyond Congo, it remains a public health emergency of international concern.
Giuliani’s associates. On Wednesday, a U.S. federal judge delayed the trial of two associates of Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani until February 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman were indicted in October on charges of campaign finance violations for allegedly using a shell company to make an illegal donation of $325,000 to a committee supporting Trump’s reelection. During the House impeachment investigation, Parnas and Fruman emerged as key players in the bid to oust then-U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch from her post in Ukraine.
The trial was set to begin on Oct. 5, which would have thrust the potentially damaging case into the spotlight in the final few weeks of Trump’s presidential reelection campaign.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-17--The Remaking of Big Pharma in a Post-Pandemic World

The Remaking of Big Pharma in a Post-Pandemic World Twenty years ago , the world ’ s top drug producers teamed up with rich nations—led by the United States—to fight a global battle to limit the low-cost generic production of antiretroviral medicines used to treat HIV .
In South Africa , where AIDS deaths had reached 100,000 and were growing , the battle raged on several fronts .
The Clinton administration was pressuring South Africa to stop production of generics meant to save its citizens ’ lives .
Big Pharma was suing the country with the same aim ( even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a place where few could afford drug cocktails costing up to $ 15,000 per year ) .
It took years of global pressure to stop the Clinton administration and the lawsuit : South Africa was eventually able to access cheaper generic drugs , which today cost only $ 75 per year .
But even with millions of lives at stake , public health has continued to take a backseat to intellectual property .
The coronavirus pandemic may finally change those calculations .
Big Pharma and its wealthy government backers have long defended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by pointing to the need to protect their intellectual property ( IP ) given the time and expense involved in research and development .
They argue that companies would have little incentive to invest in development without years of high prices first .
Only then can they permit widespread production of low-cost generic versions that would benefit everyone .
The new coronavirus has upended this norm .
Powerful governments with a long track record of enforcing global intellectual property rules on behalf of their corporations and against the developing world have suddenly loosened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health crises .
In Israel , the government used compulsory licensing , a legal tool , to sidestep the pharmaceutical company Abbvie ’ s patents for its HIV combination drug lopinavir/ritonavir—at the time believed to be effective in treating COVID-19 .
A compulsory license is a safeguard in IP law that allows governments to use a patent without the owner ’ s consent when necessary to meet public health needs .
Poor countries that have used compulsory licensing have faced retaliation when they ’ ve used it in the past to battle HIV @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to control the drug ’ s production .
Now , following the Israeli government ’ s unilateral action , it has gone one step further and dropped enforcement of its patent claims for lopinavir/ritonavir worldwide .
That will primarily help HIV patients who have long needed the drug , as it removes the last patent obstacles and will enable widespread production of low-cost generics .
Under pressure from the Dutch government , which has already shown signs of a new attitude to medical IP , the Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche shared the formula @ @ @ @ @ @ @ test so that other companies can also produce kits .
These governments ’ efforts expose the hypocrisy of rich countries : When it comes to the lives of their own citizens , intellectual property—once inviolate—stops mattering as much .
Conventional wisdom has proved breakable , even irrelevant .
European Union countries took no time to pivot to self-preservation in the fight over masks and other resources .
Democracies from Israel to South Korea quickly adopted technology to monitor and limit the movement of citizens , with little protest .
Many of these changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disruption can pave the way for a better world .
Pressure is building to ensure the rules that have long benefited Big Pharma do not stand in the way of medicine or technology needed to combat COVID-19 .
Nearly 150 civil society groups and activists are already demanding it , calling on the World Intellectual Property Organization , a U.N. agency , to support countries prioritizing public health , while encouraging IP holders to voluntarily remove restrictions .
The World Health Organization is supporting a Costa Rican proposal to pool IP for technologies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all countries—but particularly poorer countries—may access , develop , and manufacture treatment and other needed technologies at lower cost .
The U.N.-backed Medicines Patent Pool , an organization that has successfully shared IP to enable low-cost generic production of medicines related to HIV , tuberculosis , hepatitis C , and other diseases , has expanded its mandate to include COVID-19 .
The novel coronavirus requires a global response to ensure all countries can successfully combat it .
Borders can ’ t prevent the coronavirus bubbling up again if it lingers in poor countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The level of global unity now is remarkable , with international researchers collaborating at an unprecedented level in a scramble for a coronavirus vaccine and treatment for COVID-19 .
The question is what happens afterward .
It should not have taken this pandemic for the world ’ s most powerful countries to learn that the rules it had set in place could undermine their economies , and that these same rules have primarily benefited the pharmaceutical industry , not public health .
In recent years , some wealthy governments , including some in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skyrocketing costs and also questioned why corporate research and development did not produce more necessary drugs , such as antibiotics .
But by and large , little has changed .
Now , U.N. agencies including the WHO , the World Trade Organization , and the World Intellectual Property Organization—in close collaboration with civil society organizations and with key leadership from developing countries—should start mapping out a new way of conducting research and development .
They should focus on helping develop affordable medicines for the most pressing health needs .
Luckily , they do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2003 , the WHO , with participation from the World Trade Organization and the World Intellectual Property Organization , already launched a series of commissions and member state negotiations that produced plans and recommendations for how a new system would work .
They included how a global research and development system could be better coordinated and funded , with the intent not to rely solely on IP and other policies that facilitate drug monopolies .
The recommendations in these reports received the support of experts and were endorsed by WHO member states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EU , and to some extent Canada continued to block progress on implementation .
Now is the time to revisit those plans .
At a moment when global cooperation is more critical than ever , such action would help shore up our badly battered confidence in globalization and the international system .
Despite companies ’ protestations that they bear tremendous costs , public money already bankrolls a significant amount of medical research and development .
A 2018 report showed that U.S. taxpayer dollars contributed to all 210 drugs approved by the Food @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , topping $ 100 billion .
Discoveries made in university labs , frequently the most medically significant , have too often been handed over to private companies with few stipulations on availability and affordability .
That should change .
The pharmaceutical industry may have the capacity to take university research and turn it into a marketable product , but they do not produce normal commodities .
They produce lifesaving medicines .
At present , the system is working for the profits of a few , not the good of everyone , and many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ die either due to cost or because the industry has had less of an incentive to focus on diseases that impact the poorest—and greatest—number of people .
The focus has been to serve the market—that is , those who can afford to pay for treatments .
In the short term , proposals like Costa Rica ’ s COVID-19 Technology Pool to make relevant technologies globally available to fight the virus , if fully implemented with the assistance of the Medicines Patent Pool and cooperation of patent holders , will help speed access to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some semblance of normalcy .
In the long term , we need to reform the way we conduct research and development and regulate intellectual property .
As nations begin to examine how to prevent such an outbreak in the future , larger issues such as how our medications are researched , patented , and priced need to be on the table .
Many countries—including some influential ones—will want to take a closer look at the balance between profits and global health .
As it turns out , safeguarding health , preparing for outbreaks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries—is actually good for the economy .

Twenty years ago, the world’s top drug producers teamed up with rich nations—led by the United States—to fight a global battle to limit the low-cost generic production of antiretroviral medicines used to treat HIV. In South Africa, where AIDS deaths had reached 100,000 and were growing, the battle raged on several fronts. The Clinton administration was pressuring South Africa to stop production of generics meant to save its citizens’ lives. Big Pharma was suing the country with the same aim (even though brand-name HIV drug manufacturers profited little from a place where few could afford drug cocktails costing up to $15,000 per year). It took years of global pressure to stop the Clinton administration and the lawsuit: South Africa was eventually able to access cheaper generic drugs, which today cost only $75 per year. But even with millions of lives at stake, public health has continued to take a backseat to intellectual property. The coronavirus pandemic may finally change those calculations.
Twenty years ago, the world’s top drug producers teamed up with rich nations—led by the United States—to fight a global battle to limit the low-cost generic production of antiretroviral medicines used to treat HIV. In South Africa, where AIDS deaths had reached 100,000 and were growing, the battle raged on several fronts. The Clinton administration was pressuring South Africa to stop production of generics meant to save its citizens’ lives. Big Pharma was suing the country with the same aim (even though brand-name HIV drug manufacturers profited little from a place where few could afford drug cocktails costing up to $15,000 per year). It took years of global pressure to stop the Clinton administration and the lawsuit: South Africa was eventually able to access cheaper generic drugs, which today cost only $75 per year. But even with millions of lives at stake, public health has continued to take a backseat to intellectual property. The coronavirus pandemic may finally change those calculations.
Big Pharma and its wealthy government backers have long defended their high prices and strict patent rules by pointing to the need to protect their intellectual property (IP) given the time and expense involved in research and development. They argue that companies would have little incentive to invest in development without years of high prices first. Only then can they permit widespread production of low-cost generic versions that would benefit everyone.
The new coronavirus has upended this norm. Powerful governments with a long track record of enforcing global intellectual property rules on behalf of their corporations and against the developing world have suddenly loosened up now that they face their own health crises. In Israel, the government used compulsory licensing, a legal tool, to sidestep the pharmaceutical company Abbvie’s patents for its HIV combination drug lopinavir/ritonavir—at the time believed to be effective in treating COVID-19. A compulsory license is a safeguard in IP law that allows governments to use a patent without the owner’s consent when necessary to meet public health needs. Poor countries that have used compulsory licensing have faced retaliation when they’ve used it in the past to battle HIV.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
For years, Abbvie had fought to control the drug’s production. Now, following the Israeli government’s unilateral action, it has gone one step further and dropped enforcement of its patent claims for lopinavir/ritonavir worldwide. That will primarily help HIV patients who have long needed the drug, as it removes the last patent obstacles and will enable widespread production of low-cost generics. Under pressure from the Dutch government, which has already shown signs of a new attitude to medical IP, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche shared the formula for a key component of its coronavirus test so that other companies can also produce kits. These governments’ efforts expose the hypocrisy of rich countries: When it comes to the lives of their own citizens, intellectual property—once inviolate—stops mattering as much.
Conventional wisdom has proved breakable, even irrelevant. European Union countries took no time to pivot to self-preservation in the fight over masks and other resources. Democracies from Israel to South Korea quickly adopted technology to monitor and limit the movement of citizens, with little protest. Many of these changes are unsettling, but some of this disruption can pave the way for a better world.
Pressure is building to ensure the rules that have long benefited Big Pharma do not stand in the way of medicine or technology needed to combat COVID-19. Nearly 150 civil society groups and activists are already demanding it, calling on the World Intellectual Property Organization, a U.N. agency, to support countries prioritizing public health, while encouraging IP holders to voluntarily remove restrictions. The World Health Organization is supporting a Costa Rican proposal to pool IP for technologies needed to combat the coronavirus so that all countries—but particularly poorer countries—may access, develop, and manufacture treatment and other needed technologies at lower cost. The U.N.-backed Medicines Patent Pool, an organization that has successfully shared IP to enable low-cost generic production of medicines related to HIV, tuberculosis, hepatitis C, and other diseases, has expanded its mandate to include COVID-19. The novel coronavirus requires a global response to ensure all countries can successfully combat it. Borders can’t prevent the coronavirus bubbling up again if it lingers in poor countries after being defeated in rich ones.
The level of global unity now is remarkable, with international researchers collaborating at an unprecedented level in a scramble for a coronavirus vaccine and treatment for COVID-19. The question is what happens afterward.
It should not have taken this pandemic for the world’s most powerful countries to learn that the rules it had set in place could undermine their economies, and that these same rules have primarily benefited the pharmaceutical industry, not public health. In recent years, some wealthy governments, including some in the European Union, have balked at skyrocketing costs and also questioned why corporate research and development did not produce more necessary drugs, such as antibiotics. But by and large, little has changed. Now, U.N. agencies including the WHO, the World Trade Organization, and the World Intellectual Property Organization—in close collaboration with civil society organizations and with key leadership from developing countries—should start mapping out a new way of conducting research and development. They should focus on helping develop affordable medicines for the most pressing health needs.
Luckily, they do not need to look far. Starting in 2003, the WHO, with participation from the World Trade Organization and the World Intellectual Property Organization, already launched a series of commissions and member state negotiations that produced plans and recommendations for how a new system would work. They included how a global research and development system could be better coordinated and funded, with the intent not to rely solely on IP and other policies that facilitate drug monopolies. The recommendations in these reports received the support of experts and were endorsed by WHO member states. Nonetheless, the United States, the EU, and to some extent Canada continued to block progress on implementation. Now is the time to revisit those plans. At a moment when global cooperation is more critical than ever, such action would help shore up our badly battered confidence in globalization and the international system.
Despite companies’ protestations that they bear tremendous costs, public money already bankrolls a significant amount of medical research and development. A 2018 report showed that U.S. taxpayer dollars contributed to all 210 drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration between 2010 and 2016, topping $100 billion. Discoveries made in university labs, frequently the most medically significant, have too often been handed over to private companies with few stipulations on availability and affordability. That should change. The pharmaceutical industry may have the capacity to take university research and turn it into a marketable product, but they do not produce normal commodities. They produce lifesaving medicines.
At present, the system is working for the profits of a few, not the good of everyone, and many people die because of it. They die either due to cost or because the industry has had less of an incentive to focus on diseases that impact the poorest—and greatest—number of people. The focus has been to serve the market—that is, those who can afford to pay for treatments. In the short term, proposals like Costa Rica’s COVID-19 Technology Pool to make relevant technologies globally available to fight the virus, if fully implemented with the assistance of the Medicines Patent Pool and cooperation of patent holders, will help speed access to technologies needed to return the world to some semblance of normalcy.
In the long term, we need to reform the way we conduct research and development and regulate intellectual property. As nations begin to examine how to prevent such an outbreak in the future, larger issues such as how our medications are researched, patented, and priced need to be on the table. Many countries—including some influential ones—will want to take a closer look at the balance between profits and global health. As it turns out, safeguarding health, preparing for outbreaks, and saving lives—even outside our own countries—is actually good for the economy.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-17--Brother Tayyip’s Soup Kitchen

Brother Tayyip’s Soup Kitchen

ISTANBUL—Less than two hours before midnight on Friday , April 10 , hundreds of thousands of people flooded streets across Turkey .
In response to the coronavirus pandemic , the Turkish government had announced a last-minute weekend curfew for 31 provinces , including Istanbul and the capital , Ankara .
The decision was intended to keep people at home on their days off , but the late announcement made it a dangerous call .
The weekend lockdown would last just 48 hours , but the public ’ s lack of trust in the government led many to believe it would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took to the streets nationwide than in the past month , when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had asked citizens to implement a “ voluntary quarantine.
” Fights broke out , people cleared the shelves of the small markets that were still open , and few took social distancing precautions .
To add to the mayhem , Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu—a member of the opposition Republican People ’ s Party ( CHP ) —was not notified in advance that the city would be put under lockdown .
As a result , there was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents they would not be left without food or support , or to organize public transport for essential health care workers .
Imamoglu decried the sudden curfew on Twitter , saying that such a unilateral decision “ only creates confusion and panic.
” The lockdown panic prompted the attempted resignation of Turkey ’ s interior minister—rejected by Erdogan—on Sunday night as the lockdown was ending .
The president ’ s office released a statement denying any “ problem in public safety.
” But the national government announced a second curfew , set for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The lockdown was the latest in a series of recent events in which Turkey ’ s government has played politics at the expense of its citizens .
Since the beginning of Turkey ’ s coronavirus outbreak , Erdogan ’ s Justice and Development Party ( AKP ) government has refused to work with municipalities run by the opposition CHP .
The lockdown was the latest in a series of recent events in which Turkey ’ s government has played politics at the expense of its citizens and chosen decisions in its own interest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s largest city , has 74,193 confirmed coronavirus cases as of April 17 .
Imamoglu has called for a citywide lockdown for weeks , claiming to have sent various unanswered messages to Erdogan signaling that they should work together to prevent a crisis .
This lack of coordination , echoed by the CHP-run capital , Ankara , limits the capacity of local governments to address the coronavirus .
Erdogan sees Imamoglu , who defeated the AKP twice in Istanbul ’ s March 2019 mayoral election and a repeat race last June , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a potential rival to Erdogan in Turkey ’ s 2023 presidential elections : Anyone who runs Istanbul well can gain a foothold in national politics .
( Erdogan himself was the mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998 . )
Turkish politics have long been polarized between the secular population that tends to support the CHP and religious conservatives who vote for the AKP .
In Turkey ’ s local elections in 2019 , the AKP lost power in Turkey ’ s three biggest cities—but only by a small margin .
Despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the prospect of being voted out of office has shaped Erdogan ’ s pandemic decision-making .
The AKP is therefore seeking to limit the ability of CHP mayors to maintain local services and distribute social assistance to those in need , particularly people who have lost jobs due to the coronavirus .
“ Politicians play politics , and these are populist politicians who have a zero-sum game notion of politics .
So for them , they either win or they lose .
They leave little room for compromise , ” said Berk Esen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Bilkent University in Ankara .
“ [ Erdogan ] fears Imamoglu running against him , so he doesn ’ t want to give him any space or any autonomy in managing this crisis.
” On March 31 , the national government canceled fundraisers to help families affected by the pandemic organized by Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas .
Erdogan said the CHP mayors were trying to create a “ state within the state , ” prompting Imamoglu to file a legal complaint .
Seeking the spotlight , the president instead launched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April 10 , the Ministry of Interior launched an investigation into the donation campaigns run by Imamoglu and Yavas .
Imamoglu has called blocking the donations a “ very weak and very poor ” move by the national government .
The AKP is seeking to restrict the opposition even in smaller provinces .
In the CHP-run Antalya municipality , on the Mediterranean coast , the interior ministry also shut down a soup kitchen serving 2,000 people—including many who had lost work due to the coronavirus .
The kitchen was run on donations from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which the ministry once again used as justification to shut it down .
The conflict between opposition-run municipalities and the national government amid the coronavirus pandemic follows a pattern since the AKP ’ s 2019 local elections losses .
For a year , the national government has sought to take away revenue and limited budgets for the CHP-run municipalities .
More than 2 million people have lost their jobs in Turkey due to coronavirus measures , according to CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu .
And the unemployment rate is likely to rise , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If people can ’ t access a soup kitchen or donations made to support their needs in a time of crisis because the national government has shut it down , it ’ s likely to lead to public resentment—and could have an effect at the polls .
But this is a risk Erdogan is willing to take to prevent Imamoglu and other CHP leaders from being seen as Turkey ’ s heroes after the pandemic .
“ If Imamoglu comes out of this crisis unscathed , with a bit of a popularity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be quite formidable down the line , ” Esen said .
On the other hand , if Erdogan can keep the support of AKP voters rather than losing it due to the social benefits provided by the CHP , he may still be able to win the next election .
If Erdogan continues to block social assistance being delivered at the local level , communities will need to step up their organization .
In Ankara , Yavas has already begun to push his constituents in that direction .
In neighborhood shops across Turkey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need food but can ’ t pay immediately to write their debt in a book—to be paid once they receive their salary .
Yavas has suggested that anyone in the community who has money to spare go to the local greengrocer and pay off others ’ debts .
The coronavirus pandemic presents a rupture in Turkish politics .
The crisis could either strengthen the local-national divide between CHP and AKP or push the Turkish public as a whole to support the opposition , who are presenting themselves as the true representatives of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

ISTANBUL—Less than two hours before midnight on Friday, April 10, hundreds of thousands of people flooded streets across Turkey. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Turkish government had announced a last-minute weekend curfew for 31 provinces, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. The decision was intended to keep people at home on their days off, but the late announcement made it a dangerous call.
ISTANBUL—Less than two hours before midnight on Friday, April 10, hundreds of thousands of people flooded streets across Turkey. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Turkish government had announced a last-minute weekend curfew for 31 provinces, including Istanbul and the capital, Ankara. The decision was intended to keep people at home on their days off, but the late announcement made it a dangerous call.
The weekend lockdown would last just 48 hours, but the public’s lack of trust in the government led many to believe it would be extended without notice. More people took to the streets nationwide than in the past month, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had asked citizens to implement a “voluntary quarantine.” Fights broke out, people cleared the shelves of the small markets that were still open, and few took social distancing precautions.
To add to the mayhem, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu—a member of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP)—was not notified in advance that the city would be put under lockdown. As a result, there was not enough time for the municipality to reassure residents they would not be left without food or support, or to organize public transport for essential health care workers. Imamoglu decried the sudden curfew on Twitter, saying that such a unilateral decision “only creates confusion and panic.”
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
The lockdown panic prompted the attempted resignation of Turkey’s interior minister—rejected by Erdogan—on Sunday night as the lockdown was ending. The president’s office released a statement denying any “problem in public safety.” But the national government announced a second curfew, set for this weekend, well in advance.
The lockdown was the latest in a series of recent events in which Turkey’s government has played politics at the expense of its citizens.
Since the beginning of Turkey’s coronavirus outbreak, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has refused to work with municipalities run by the opposition CHP. The lockdown was the latest in a series of recent events in which Turkey’s government has played politics at the expense of its citizens and chosen decisions in its own interest over clear communication.
Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, has 74,193 confirmed coronavirus cases as of April 17. Imamoglu has called for a citywide lockdown for weeks, claiming to have sent various unanswered messages to Erdogan signaling that they should work together to prevent a crisis. This lack of coordination, echoed by the CHP-run capital, Ankara, limits the capacity of local governments to address the coronavirus.
Erdogan sees Imamoglu, who defeated the AKP twice in Istanbul’s March 2019 mayoral election and a repeat race last June, as a major electoral threat. Imamoglu is a potential rival to Erdogan in Turkey’s 2023 presidential elections: Anyone who runs Istanbul well can gain a foothold in national politics. (Erdogan himself was the mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998.) Turkish politics have long been polarized between the secular population that tends to support the CHP and religious conservatives who vote for the AKP. In Turkey’s local elections in 2019, the AKP lost power in Turkey’s three biggest cities—but only by a small margin. Despite the significant threat of the coronavirus, the prospect of being voted out of office has shaped Erdogan’s pandemic decision-making.
The AKP is therefore seeking to limit the ability of CHP mayors to maintain local services and distribute social assistance to those in need, particularly people who have lost jobs due to the coronavirus. “Politicians play politics, and these are populist politicians who have a zero-sum game notion of politics. So for them, they either win or they lose. They leave little room for compromise,” said Berk Esen, an assistant professor of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara. “[Erdogan] fears Imamoglu running against him, so he doesn’t want to give him any space or any autonomy in managing this crisis.”
On March 31, the national government canceled fundraisers to help families affected by the pandemic organized by Imamoglu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas. Erdogan said the CHP mayors were trying to create a “state within the state,” prompting Imamoglu to file a legal complaint. Seeking the spotlight, the president instead launched his own national fundraising drive. On April 10, the Ministry of Interior launched an investigation into the donation campaigns run by Imamoglu and Yavas. Imamoglu has called blocking the donations a “very weak and very poor” move by the national government.
The AKP is seeking to restrict the opposition even in smaller provinces. In the CHP-run Antalya municipality, on the Mediterranean coast, the interior ministry also shut down a soup kitchen serving 2,000 people—including many who had lost work due to the coronavirus. The kitchen was run on donations from the public rather than by the state, which the ministry once again used as justification to shut it down.
The conflict between opposition-run municipalities and the national government amid the coronavirus pandemic follows a pattern since the AKP’s 2019 local elections losses. For a year, the national government has sought to take away revenue and limited budgets for the CHP-run municipalities.
More than 2 million people have lost their jobs in Turkey due to coronavirus measures, according to CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. And the unemployment rate is likely to rise, meaning Erdogan’s tactics could backfire. If people can’t access a soup kitchen or donations made to support their needs in a time of crisis because the national government has shut it down, it’s likely to lead to public resentment—and could have an effect at the polls.
But this is a risk Erdogan is willing to take to prevent Imamoglu and other CHP leaders from being seen as Turkey’s heroes after the pandemic. “If Imamoglu comes out of this crisis unscathed, with a bit of a popularity build-up, he’s going to be quite formidable down the line,” Esen said. On the other hand, if Erdogan can keep the support of AKP voters rather than losing it due to the social benefits provided by the CHP, he may still be able to win the next election.
If Erdogan continues to block social assistance being delivered at the local level, communities will need to step up their organization.
In Ankara, Yavas has already begun to push his constituents in that direction. In neighborhood shops across Turkey, it is common for people who need food but can’t pay immediately to write their debt in a book—to be paid once they receive their salary. Yavas has suggested that anyone in the community who has money to spare go to the local greengrocer and pay off others’ debts.
The coronavirus pandemic presents a rupture in Turkish politics. The crisis could either strengthen the local-national divide between CHP and AKP or push the Turkish public as a whole to support the opposition, who are presenting themselves as the true representatives of the poor in a time of dire need.