foreignpolicy--2020-03-03--Netanyahu Surges in Israeli Election

Netanyahu Surges in Israeli Election

TEL AVIV , Israel—Benjamin Netanyahu might have just done it again .
The Israeli leader who has ruled the country longer than any of his predecessors appears to have won a record fifth election , according to exit polls , despite criminal charges he faces in court later this month .
The projected results defied surveys that suggested Israel was heading for more political deadlock after two elections in the past year that failed to produce a clear winner .
If the numbers hold and Netanyahu manages to form a government , it could pave the way for Israel ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bank , a dramatic and potentially destabilizing turn for both Israelis and Palestinians .
Netanyahu ’ s Likud party finished the race as the largest faction in parliament , outpacing the centrist Blue and White party , headed by former military chief Benny Gantz , by a three-to five-seat margin .
Gantz had led in the polls up until the final week of the campaign .
“ If these are the results , it ’ s a failure , ” said Ofer Shelach , a member of parliament from Blue and White .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Israel have sometimes been known to deliver an incomplete rendering of the results .
The actual returns will begin to come in overnight Israel time .
But all three network polls said Netanyahu ’ s parliamentary alliance would number between 59 and 60 seats in the 120-member parliament—just one or two seats shy of the number the prime minister would need to secure a parliamentary majority .
“ If Netanyahu ends up with 60 seats , it ’ s not this Sisyphean struggle to get one more seat , ” Shelly Yachimovich @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party , said on Channel 11 news after the exit polls were published .
She said he would not have much trouble getting one defector to join his right-wing camp .
“ I believe Netanyahu will form the next government , ” Yachimovich said .
On the other hand , if the exit polls have overstated Netanyahu ’ s strength , Israel would likely continue to be led by a caretaker government and possibly face a record fourth election in the coming months .
It could take several days before the final results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uncertainty for many in the country .
“ Israel [ is ] facing the tensest vote-counting period in its history as even a handful of … votes can make the difference between ” a government run by Netanyahu and further paralysis , the Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer of the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper wrote on Twitter .
Netanyahu failed to form majority coalitions following two rounds of elections in 2019 , one in April and a second in September .
In both instances , Israel ’ s parliament responded by dissolving itself and scheduling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unprecedented in Israel ’ s 71-year history : The country has been operating with a caretaker government since the end of 2018 .
The apparent achievement in the election is especially remarkable given that Netanyahu ran the latest contest under a cloud of multiple corruption indictments—his trial is scheduled to begin on March 17—and after the number of seats controlled by his bloc shrunk in September to just 55 .
But Netanyahu benefited from divisions on the center and left sides of the political map .
The third-place Joint List , an alliance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rejected by Gantz during the campaign as a potential coalition partner .
Joint List parliament member Ahmad Tibi criticized Gantz for ruling out any partnership with his faction and said Blue and White paid a price for the veto .
“ This is an unprecedented achievement of historic proportions for the Joint List .
We did our part .
Others failed , including Blue and White , ” he said .
Yisrael Beiteinu , a secularist right-wing party that demonized both Arab politicians and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties in Netanyahu ’ s bloc during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ six to eight seats in the new parliament .
But the results likely meant the party would no longer hold the balance of power between the left- and right-wing blocs in parliament .
A first-time alliance between the Labor Party and Meretz , two left-wing parties that once controlled more than one-third of the Israeli parliament between them , further eroded their power .
Their merged party was projected to draw just six to seven seats in parliament .
Netanyahu faces charges of fraud , breach of trust , and bribery in three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister to go on trial .
He has said he ’ s innocent , alleging that he ’ s the target of biased media , police , and prosecutors .
Despite the legal troubles , Netanyahu has managed to keep members of his Likud party solidly behind him by arguing that he ’ s the only one capable of leading the country .
He won a Likud primary challenge in December by a landslide .
Netanyahu has also convinced right-wing and religious allies to stay loyal , in part by promising to annex @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bank after elections—in line with a peace plan presented by U.S. President Donald Trump last month .
“ While we need to wait for the final results , there is no doubt that Prime Minister Netanyahu has won a significant political mandate from the Israeli people , ” Israel Democracy Institute President Yohanan Plesner said in a statement .
“ Israelis voiced their support for the man they perceive to have bringing them security and prosperity .
”

TEL AVIV, Israel—Benjamin Netanyahu might have just done it again.
TEL AVIV, Israel—Benjamin Netanyahu might have just done it again.
The Israeli leader who has ruled the country longer than any of his predecessors appears to have won a record fifth election, according to exit polls, despite criminal charges he faces in court later this month.
The projected results defied surveys that suggested Israel was heading for more political deadlock after two elections in the past year that failed to produce a clear winner. If the numbers hold and Netanyahu manages to form a government, it could pave the way for Israel’s annexation of parts of the West Bank, a dramatic and potentially destabilizing turn for both Israelis and Palestinians.
Netanyahu’s Likud party finished the race as the largest faction in parliament, outpacing the centrist Blue and White party, headed by former military chief Benny Gantz, by a margin of three to five seats. Gantz had led in the polls up until the final week of the campaign.
“If these are the results, it’s a failure,” said Ofer Shelah, a member of parliament from Blue and White.
To be sure, television exit polls in Israel have sometimes been known to deliver an incomplete rendering of the results. The actual returns will begin to come in overnight Israel time.
But all three network polls said Netanyahu’s parliamentary alliance would number between 59 and 60 seats in the 120-member parliament—just one or two seats shy of the number the prime minister would need to secure a parliamentary majority.
“If Netanyahu ends up with 60 seats, it’s not this Sisyphean struggle to get one more seat,” Shelly Yachimovich, a former member of the Labor Party, said on Channel 11 news after the exit polls were published. She said he would not have much trouble getting one defector to join his right-wing camp.
“I believe Netanyahu will form the next government,” Yachimovich said.
On the other hand, if the exit polls have overstated Netanyahu’s strength, Israel would likely continue to be led by a caretaker government and possibly face a record fourth election in the coming months.
It could take several days before the final results are known, a period of excruciating uncertainty for many in the country.
“Israel [is] facing the tensest vote-counting period in its history as even a handful of … votes can make the difference between” a government run by Netanyahu and further paralysis, the Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer of the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper wrote on Twitter.
Netanyahu failed to form majority coalitions following two rounds of elections in 2019, one in April and a second in September. In both instances, Israel’s parliament responded by dissolving itself and scheduling a new election.
The limbo is unprecedented in Israel’s 71-year history: The country has been operating with a caretaker government since the end of 2018.
The apparent achievement in the election is especially remarkable given that Netanyahu ran the latest contest under a cloud of multiple corruption indictments—his trial is scheduled to begin on March 17—and after the number of seats controlled by his bloc shrunk in September to just 55.
But Netanyahu benefited from divisions on the center and left sides of the political map. The third-place Joint List, an alliance of predominantly Arab parties, had been rejected by Gantz during the campaign as a potential coalition partner.
Joint List parliament member Ahmad Tibi criticized Gantz for ruling out any partnership with his faction and said Blue and White paid a price for the veto.
“This is an unprecedented achievement of historic proportions for the Joint List. We did our part. Others failed, including Blue and White,” he said.
Yisrael Beiteinu, a secularist right-wing party that demonized both Arab politicians and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties in Netanyahu’s bloc during its campaign, was projected to control six to eight seats in the new parliament. But the results likely meant the party would no longer hold the balance of power between the left- and right-wing blocs in parliament.
A first-time alliance between the Labor Party and Meretz, two left-wing parties that once controlled more than one-third of the Israeli parliament between them, further eroded their power. Their merged party was projected to draw just six to seven seats in parliament.
Netanyahu faces charges of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery in three cases—making him the first sitting Israeli prime minister to go on trial. He has said he’s innocent, alleging that he’s the target of biased media, police, and prosecutors.
Despite the legal troubles, Netanyahu has managed to keep members of his Likud party solidly behind him by arguing that he’s the only one capable of leading the country. He won a Likud primary challenge in December by a landslide. Netanyahu has also convinced right-wing and religious allies to stay loyal, in part by promising to annex up to one-third of the occupied West Bank after elections—in line with a peace plan presented by U.S. President Donald Trump last month.
“While we need to wait for the final results, there is no doubt that Prime Minister Netanyahu has won a significant political mandate from the Israeli people,” Israel Democracy Institute President Yohanan Plesner said in a statement.
“Israelis voiced their support for the man they perceive to have bringing them security and prosperity.”


foreignpolicy--2020-03-02--Pompeo to Pressure U.N. Over Aid to Yemen

Pompeo to Pressure U.N. Over Aid to Yemen The Trump administration is pressuring the United Nations to scale back vital aid operations in Yemen as Iranian-backed Houthi insurgents seek greater control over how humanitarian assistance is delivered in territory under their control .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo plans to travel to U.N. headquarters on March 6 for a meeting with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres , during which Pompeo will raise concerns about what he sees as the U.N. ’ s sluggish effort to freeze aid deliveries in the face of persistent Houthi obstruction and seizure of lifesaving relief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is expected to single out the U.N. relief coordinator , Mark Lowcock of the United Kingdom , for resisting U.S. appeals to take a more aggressive approach and suspend more relief programs in Yemen , those sources told Foreign Policy .
The humanitarian standoff comes at a tense moment in the nearly five-year-long conflict .
A promising diplomatic push between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia , the Yemeni government ’ s top sponsor and a U.S. ally , to end the conflict has stalled as Houthi rebels have resumed missile attacks against Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air attacks on the Houthi-held capital of Sanaa .
During the planned meeting at the U.N. , which has not been publicly announced , Pompeo also intends to raise U.S. concerns about a number of other so-called leadership issues , including China ’ s growing international clout at the United Nations ; the recent publication , which the United States opposed , by the U.N. high commissioner for human rights of a list of companies doing business in illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank ; and a push to install more Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ push to suspend aid to Yemen comes in response to efforts by the Houthis , who are Iranian-backed Shiite separatists , to impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance in northern Yemen , part of a broader strategy to enforce greater control over how aid is distributed in territory under its control .
The actions have infuriated donor countries , including the United States , private charities , and U.N. relief officials .
They have accused the Houthis of seeking to violate humanitarian aid norms to divert aid to gain an upper hand in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide preferential treatment for communities that are loyal to their cause .
The United States plans to freeze spending on a series of programs later this month , causing friction with other donor nations and NGOs that want to keep aid all supplies flowing , officials familiar with the matter say .
The United States has not specified which programs it would stop funding , but a senior U.S. official told reporters there would be “ exceptions for truly lifesaving programs , ” including feeding sick children .
There are differences of opinion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Yemen , the site of the world ’ s largest humanitarian crisis , where some 80 percent of the country ’ s 28 million people depend on international aid and protection .
The U.N. recognizes the need to suspend specific aid operations , but only on a case-by-case basis , and only if they are convinced such assistance would violate established humanitarian standards that require aid be distributed strictly on the basis of need .
They fear the U.S. push for full-fledged cuts threatens to endanger lives .
The U.N. chief underscored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operation , which is being implemented in challenging conditions , but is providing life-saving assistance to millions of Yemenis , ” according to a Feb. 12 statement from his office .
“ The Secretary-General supports continuing dialogue with all the interested parties to ensure that help reaches all those who need it , in accordance with humanitarian principles.
” Aid workers warn that suspending relief to areas controlled by the Houthis could worsen an already dismal humanitarian situation .
“ Conditions in Yemen continue to deteriorate , and humanitarian need is greater than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and pay for their next meals , ” said Scott Paul , a policy advisor at Oxfam America .
“ For millions of the most vulnerable Yemenis , access to aid and services is a matter of life and death .
The parties to the conflict and the international community need to push for peace and make sure aid gets to those who need it most.
” The United States insists that there is a consensus among key donor states and private charities , which are “ drawing up plans … [ that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programs , with exceptions for truly lifesaving programs—feeding children and things like that , ” a senior State Department official told reporters on Feb. 25 .
“ They ’ ve also been doing things like harassing , even torturing implementing staff , diverting aid toward groups and areas that they favor.
” “ Most governments , including the U.S. , can ’ t allow their funds to be used this way , ” the State Department official said .
The State Department official suggested that the decision to suspend aid to the Houthis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other international relief organizations—a claim that has been challenged by representatives of relief agencies , who say the remarks could threaten the safety of relief workers on the ground in Yemen .
Several relief organizations drafted a letter to the State Department challenging that account and making it clear that the aid groups do not favor an aid cutoff .
The groups urged the United States and other donors to seek a diplomatic agreement with the Houthis to ease its aid restrictions .
It is unclear whether the letter , which was described @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the State Department yet .
The U.S. campaign has fed suspicions among some observers that Washington ’ s hard-line stance may be driven as much by a desire to apply diplomatic pressure on Iran and its allies in the region than by a concern about Houthi misconduct .
It also comes at a time when the White House has proposed deep cuts to its foreign assistance budget .
The latest humanitarian crisis in Yemen , one of the poorest countries in the Middle East , began in March 2015 , when Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rebellion by ethnic Houthi insurgents , who seized the northern capital of Sanaa and ousted the internationally recognized government .
Throughout the early stages of the war , the Saudi-led coalition blockaded the country ’ s main port , preventing the delivery of lifesaving aid , fuel , and food into territory controlled by the Houthis , fueling the worst humanitarian crisis in the world .
The Saudi coalition has received political and military support from the United States beginning under the Obama administration and continuing under President Donald Trump , sparking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Congress who want to halt all U.S. assistance to the coalition .
In the past two years , the Houthis have steadily sought to impose a series of new conditions on the delivery of aid , spurring a new crisis .
Last summer , the World Food Program suspended its aid program after the Houthis breached an agreement to allow the Rome-based food agency to introduce a program to track food recipients with biometric equipment .
Instead , the Houthis seized the equipment at Sanaa International Airport .
The United Nations and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistance to more than 13 million Yemeni civilians each month .
In a Feb. 18 briefing to the U.N. Security Council , Lowcock , the U.N. humanitarian relief coordinator , said that the Houthis—who are formally known as Ansar Allah—have refused to approve 40 percent of all projects by independent relief agencies or NGOs .
The Houthis ’ interference has undermined the U.N. ’ s ability to assess the full humanitarian needs in Yemen or to monitor whether aid is arriving where it is most needed .
“ It has also been suggested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fund the authorities ’ aid-coordination body , ” Lowcock told the council .
“ The situation is unacceptable .
Stopping the world ’ s largest aid operation would be fatal for millions of people , ” he told the 15-nation council .
Lowcock also noted that Yemen ’ s internationally recognized government has recently seized eight trucks carrying medical supplies .
The trucks were returned , but with only 70 percent of their medical cargo .
But he said the U.N. is facing “ much more serious problems in areas controlled by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he said , issued more than 200 new regulations on humanitarian operations last year , while “ incidents disrupting ” the delivery of assistance had soared “ by a factor of six ” during the same period .
“ Half of those incidents constrained movements of relief supplies of staff , while approximately a quarter of them involved attempts to influence decisions on who received help , ” he added .
In November 2019 , the Houthi Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and International Cooperation issued a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all humanitarian aid entering its territory .
It also demanded the authority to manage and coordinate all international humanitarian operations , decide where aid would be distributed , and take possession of all equipment , including machinery and vehicles , brought into the country by aid organizations .
The initiative triggered a push by the U.N. mission in Yemen and donor governments to ramp up pressure on the Houthis to back down .
In mid-January , a top German humanitarian official , Wolfgang Bindseil , wrote that the conditions “ would gravely infringe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This would be unacceptable to us.
” Any decision by a German-funded aid agency to pay a Houthi tax , he added , “ would be considered a serious incident of aid diversion.
” The United States , which contributed around $ 750 million in humanitarian aid to Yemen in fiscal 2019 , developed plans to start suspending some aid , the Washington Post reported .
The U.S. Agency for International Development ( USAID ) informed charities at a meeting in Djibouti in early February that it would start cutting funding in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t back down—it later pushed the deadline until late March .
In early February , USAID also drafted a five-point plan of action to reduce and refocus bilateral and U.N. assistance to Yemen .
It called for establishing more stringent conditions to prevent Houthi authorities from diverting aid from the most needy , freezing Houthi institutions out of the aid distribution pipeline , and requiring the Houthis make good on their agreement to let the World Food Program establishment a biometric registration program that ensures aid goes to individuals who need it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ initiative from Britain , Germany , and the Netherlands .
In a Feb. 10 letter to the U.N. leadership in New York and Yemen , the four governments called on the U.N. leadership to revise its strategy and take up the action plan , and to dispatch a high-level visit by U.N. leadership to Yemen to outline the new policy with Houthi officials .
The contents of the letter—which was obtained by Foreign Policy—were first reported by the New Humanitarian news agency .
It also called for the establishment of a joint committee—made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international charities , and donor countries .
Two days later , the Houthis pledged to offer a set of concessions .
In response , the Houthi leader Abdulaziz bin Habtoor assured the U.N. that the tax was being canceled and that 120 metric tons of food seized by the Houthis in the Hajjah governorate would be returned to the U.N .
He also promised that biometric equipment was being released from Sanaa airport .
“ I hope my response to your points is sound , hoping that you would duplicate your efforts to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and support for the people of Yemen , who are starving and suffering and facing disease outbreaks because of the aggression coalition , ” he wrote .
The apparent concessions , according to diplomatic sources , weakened the Americans ’ hard-line stance .
The United States , other key donors , U.N. agencies , and relief organizations met in Brussels on Feb. 13 at a meeting co-hosted by the European Commission and Sweden to develop a concerted strategy to get the Houthis to back down .
The United States had been proposing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.N. and private relief agencies felt that risked worsening the humanitarian crisis .
Instead , they agreed to suspend aid if they could establish specific instances of aid diversions .
“ All humanitarian actors remain firmly committed to continue providing vital support to the people of Yemen with humanity , neutrality , independence and impartiality , ” the co-chair wrote in a summary .
“ Participants unanimously stated that this situation is untenable and has reached a breaking point.
” The United States , according to two diplomatic sources , declined to align @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it wasn ’ t strong enough .
The State Department and USAID didn ’ t respond to requests for comment .
The participants noted they had agreed on a “ common plan re-calibrating humanitarian aid activities , including a phased downscale , or even interruption , of certain operations , if and where principled delivery is impossible and as long as this occurs … Assistance to vulnerable people will continue as long as they can be reached in line with humanitarian principles and donors ’ regulations.
” Kelly Craft , the U.S. ambassador @ @ @ @ @ @ @ council that the Houthis ’ conduct posed a dilemma for the United States and other donor countries that have an obligation to ensure that taxpayer money is spent responsibly .
“ We may be forced to consider suspending or reducing our assistance in northern Yemen as early as March unless undue Houthi interference ceases immediately , ” she warned .
“ For any who would point to reports that the Houthis have agreed to rescind the project levy , please know the Houthis have made clear to those on the ground that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nongovernmental organizations .
”

The Trump administration is pressuring the United Nations to scale back vital aid operations in Yemen as Iranian-backed Houthi insurgents seek greater control over how humanitarian assistance is delivered in territory under their control.
The Trump administration is pressuring the United Nations to scale back vital aid operations in Yemen as Iranian-backed Houthi insurgents seek greater control over how humanitarian assistance is delivered in territory under their control.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo plans to travel to U.N. headquarters on March 6 for a meeting with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, during which Pompeo will raise concerns about what he sees as the U.N.’s sluggish effort to freeze aid deliveries in the face of persistent Houthi obstruction and seizure of lifesaving relief, according to diplomatic sources. Pompeo is expected to single out the U.N. relief coordinator, Mark Lowcock of the United Kingdom, for resisting U.S. appeals to take a more aggressive approach and suspend more relief programs in Yemen, those sources told Foreign Policy.
The humanitarian standoff comes at a tense moment in the nearly five-year-long conflict. A promising diplomatic push between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government’s top sponsor and a U.S. ally, to end the conflict has stalled as Houthi rebels have resumed missile attacks against Saudi Arabia, while Riyadh has resumed its air attacks on the Houthi-held capital of Sanaa.
During the planned meeting at the U.N., which has not been publicly announced, Pompeo also intends to raise U.S. concerns about a number of other so-called leadership issues, including China’s growing international clout at the United Nations; the recent publication, which the United States opposed, by the U.N. high commissioner for human rights of a list of companies doing business in illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank; and a push to install more Americans in senior U.N. leadership positions.
The push to suspend aid to Yemen comes in response to efforts by the Houthis, who are Iranian-backed Shiite rebels, to impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance in northern Yemen, part of a broader strategy to enforce greater control over how aid is distributed in territory under its control. The actions have infuriated donor countries, including the United States, private charities, and U.N. relief officials.
They have accused the Houthis of seeking to violate humanitarian aid norms to divert aid to gain an upper hand in the conflict, make money, and provide preferential treatment for communities that are loyal to their cause. The United States plans to freeze spending on a series of programs later this month, causing friction with other donor nations and NGOs that want to keep aid all supplies flowing, officials familiar with the matter say. The United States has not specified which programs it would stop funding, but a senior U.S. official told reporters there would be “exceptions for truly lifesaving programs,” including feeding sick children.
There are differences of opinion over how aggressively to cut off aid in Yemen, the site of the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, where some 80 percent of the country’s 28 million people depend on international aid and protection.
The U.N. recognizes the need to suspend specific aid operations, but only on a case-by-case basis, and only if they are convinced such assistance would violate established humanitarian standards that require aid be distributed strictly on the basis of need. They fear the U.S. push for full-fledged cuts threatens to endanger lives.
“Any reduction in aid in northern Yemen would not constitute a full suspension of U.S. Government assistance, but would maintain the most critical life-saving activities that directly mitigate famine, such as treatment of acute malnutrition and cholera,” Pooja Jhunjhunwala, acting spokesperson for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), told Foreign Policy in an email.
The U.N. chief underscored the “importance of sustaining the humanitarian operation, which is being implemented in challenging conditions, but is providing life-saving assistance to millions of Yemenis,” according to a Feb. 12 statement from his office. “The Secretary-General supports continuing dialogue with all the interested parties to ensure that help reaches all those who need it, in accordance with humanitarian principles.”
Aid workers warn that suspending relief to areas controlled by the Houthis could worsen an already dismal humanitarian situation.
“Conditions in Yemen continue to deteriorate, and humanitarian need is greater than ever as families struggle to stay safe and pay for their next meals,” said Scott Paul, a policy advisor at Oxfam America. “For millions of the most vulnerable Yemenis, access to aid and services is a matter of life and death. The parties to the conflict and the international community need to push for peace and make sure aid gets to those who need it most.”
The United States insists that there is a consensus among key donor states and private charities, which are “drawing up plans … [that] involve suspending a lot of assistance programs, with exceptions for truly lifesaving programs—feeding children and things like that,” a senior State Department official told reporters on Feb. 25. “They’ve also been doing things like harassing, even torturing implementing staff, diverting aid toward groups and areas that they favor.”
“Most governments, including the U.S., can’t allow their funds to be used this way,” the State Department official said.
The State Department official suggested that the decision to suspend aid to the Houthis was first proposed by the U.N. and other international relief organizations—a claim that has been challenged by representatives of relief agencies, who say the remarks could threaten the safety of relief workers on the ground in Yemen. Several relief organizations drafted a letter to the State Department challenging that account and making it clear that the aid groups do not favor an aid cutoff. The groups urged the United States and other donors to seek a diplomatic agreement with the Houthis to ease its aid restrictions. It is unclear whether the letter, which was described by two sources, has been delivered to the State Department yet.
The move to suspend some aid “is a last resort that follows more than a year of advocacy and diplomatic engagement calling on the Houthis to respect humanitarian principles,” a State Department spokesperson said. Under current U.S. government estimates, the spokesperson said, “due to the Houthis’ restrictions, $65 million in U.S. humanitarian assistance, provided in the last two years to NGO partners to assist nearly 1.4 million people, is already not being implemented.”
The U.S. campaign has fed suspicions among some observers that Washington’s hard-line stance may be driven as much by a desire to apply diplomatic pressure on Iran and its allies in the region than by a concern about Houthi misconduct. It also comes at a time when the White House has proposed deep cuts to its foreign assistance budget.
The latest humanitarian crisis in Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East, began in March 2015, when Saudi Arabia organized a military coalition to crush a rebellion by ethnic Houthi insurgents, who seized the northern capital of Sanaa and ousted the internationally recognized government.
Throughout the early stages of the war, the Saudi-led coalition blockaded the country’s main port, preventing the delivery of lifesaving aid, fuel, and food into territory controlled by the Houthis, fueling the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. The Saudi coalition has received political and military support from the United States beginning under the Obama administration and continuing under President Donald Trump, sparking backlash among a bipartisan group of lawmakers in Congress who want to halt all U.S. assistance to the coalition.
In the past two years, the Houthis have steadily sought to impose a series of new conditions on the delivery of aid, spurring a new crisis. Last summer, the World Food Program suspended its aid program after the Houthis breached an agreement to allow the Rome-based food agency to introduce a program to track food recipients with biometric equipment. Instead, the Houthis seized the equipment at Sanaa International Airport.
The United Nations and a network of independent relief agencies provide assistance to more than 13 million Yemeni civilians each month.
In a Feb. 18 briefing to the U.N. Security Council, Lowcock, the U.N. humanitarian relief coordinator, said that the Houthis—who are formally known as Ansar Allah—have refused to approve 40 percent of all projects by independent relief agencies or NGOs. The Houthis’ interference has undermined the U.N.’s ability to assess the full humanitarian needs in Yemen or to monitor whether aid is arriving where it is most needed.
“It has also been suggested that NGOs pay a 2 percent tax to fund the authorities’ aid-coordination body,” Lowcock told the council. “The situation is unacceptable. Stopping the world’s largest aid operation would be fatal for millions of people,” he told the 15-nation council.
Lowcock also noted that Yemen’s internationally recognized government has recently seized eight trucks carrying medical supplies. The trucks were returned, but with only 70 percent of their medical cargo. But he said the U.N. is facing “much more serious problems in areas controlled by the Ansar Allah authorities.”
The Houthis, he said, issued more than 200 new regulations on humanitarian operations last year, while “incidents disrupting” the delivery of assistance had soared “by a factor of six” during the same period. “Half of those incidents constrained movements of relief supplies of staff, while approximately a quarter of them involved attempts to influence decisions on who received help,” he added.
In November 2019, the Houthi Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and International Cooperation issued a decree imposing a 2 percent tax on all humanitarian aid entering its territory. It also demanded the authority to manage and coordinate all international humanitarian operations, decide where aid would be distributed, and take possession of all equipment, including machinery and vehicles, brought into the country by aid organizations.
The initiative triggered a push by the U.N. mission in Yemen and donor governments to ramp up pressure on the Houthis to back down.
In mid-January, a top German humanitarian official, Wolfgang Bindseil, wrote that the conditions “would gravely infringe donors/partners contractual terms and violate humanitarian principles. This would be unacceptable to us.” Any decision by a German-funded aid agency to pay a Houthi tax, he added, “would be considered a serious incident of aid diversion.” The United States, which contributed around $750 million in humanitarian aid to Yemen in fiscal 2019, developed plans to start suspending some aid, the Washington Post reported. USAID informed charities at a meeting in Djibouti in early February that it would start cutting funding in early March if the Houthis didn’t back down—it later pushed the deadline until late March.
In early February, USAID also drafted a five-point plan of action to reduce and refocus bilateral and U.N. assistance to Yemen. It called for establishing more stringent conditions to prevent Houthi authorities from diverting aid from the most needy, freezing Houthi institutions out of the aid distribution pipeline, and requiring the Houthis make good on their agreement to let the World Food Program establishment a biometric registration program that ensures aid goes to individuals who need it. The United Sates secured support for its initiative from Britain, Germany, and the Netherlands.
In a Feb. 10 letter to the U.N. leadership in New York and Yemen, the four governments called on the U.N. leadership to revise its strategy and take up the action plan, and to dispatch a high-level visit by U.N. leadership to Yemen to outline the new policy with Houthi officials. The contents of the letter—which was obtained by Foreign Policy—were first reported by the New Humanitarian news agency. It also called for the establishment of a joint committee—made up of representatives from U.N. agencies, international charities, and donor countries.
Two days later, the Houthis pledged to offer a set of concessions.
In response, the Houthi leader Abdulaziz bin Habtoor assured the U.N. that the tax was being canceled and that 120 metric tons of food seized by the Houthis in the Hajjah governorate would be returned to the U.N. He also promised that biometric equipment was being released from Sanaa airport. “I hope my response to your points is sound, hoping that you would duplicate your efforts to secure the highest level of humanitarian assistance and support for the people of Yemen, who are starving and suffering and facing disease outbreaks because of the aggression coalition,” he wrote.
The apparent concessions, according to diplomatic sources, weakened the Americans’ hard-line stance.
The United States, other key donors, U.N. agencies, and relief organizations met in Brussels on Feb. 13 at a meeting co-hosted by the European Commission and Sweden to develop a concerted strategy to get the Houthis to back down. The United States had been proposing a sweeping suspension of aid. But the U.N. and private relief agencies felt that risked worsening the humanitarian crisis. Instead, they agreed to suspend aid if they could establish specific instances of aid diversions.
“All humanitarian actors remain firmly committed to continue providing vital support to the people of Yemen with humanity, neutrality, independence and impartiality,” the co-chair wrote in a summary. “Participants unanimously stated that this situation is untenable and has reached a breaking point.” The United States, according to two diplomatic sources, declined to align itself with the summary, arguing that it wasn’t strong enough.
The participants noted they had agreed on a “common plan re-calibrating humanitarian aid activities, including a phased downscale, or even interruption, of certain operations, if and where principled delivery is impossible and as long as this occurs … Assistance to vulnerable people will continue as long as they can be reached in line with humanitarian principles and donors’ regulations.”
“We support the conclusions outlined by the meeting’s co-chairs, and want to see these conversations continue,” the State Department spokesperson said in response. The spokesperson added that they “appreciate the coordination work” of Lowcock, the senior U.N. official.
“However, we have made clear that the U.S. cannot responsibly fund aid operations if we cannot monitor and protect the humanitarian integrity of these programs. We must see demonstrable progress by the Houthis to remove these obstructions in order for the U.S. to continue providing assistance,” the spokesperson said.
Kelly Craft, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told the council that the Houthis’ conduct posed a dilemma for the United States and other donor countries that have an obligation to ensure that taxpayer money is spent responsibly.
“We may be forced to consider suspending or reducing our assistance in northern Yemen as early as March unless undue Houthi interference ceases immediately,” she warned. “For any who would point to reports that the Houthis have agreed to rescind the project levy, please know the Houthis have made clear to those on the ground that they expect funding in some manner from the nongovernmental organizations.”
Update, March 3, 2020: This article was updated to include comments from USAID and the State Department.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-02--The United States Wants Peace. The Taliban Wants an Emirate.

The United States Wants Peace .
The Taliban Wants an Emirate .
DOHA , Qatar—At the pyramid-shaped seaside luxury hotel in Doha where the United States and the Taliban signed their long-awaited agreement , the 100 or so black turbans in attendance occasionally fluttered in the wind .
The bearded Taliban leaders nonetheless had cheerful looks on their faces .
For them , the Americans ’ agreement to leave Afghanistan , even without any commitment to a cease-fire , was a declaration of victory for their side .
The United States has promised to initially reduce its troops from 13,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all , along with other coalition forces , within the next 14 months .
The withdrawal is binding only if the Taliban keeps its side of the bargain , by not allowing any terrorist organization to again attack the United States or its allies from Afghan soil , as happened on 9/11 .
Around 3,500 U.S. and coalition soldiers have died in the conflict ; the number of Afghan deaths is estimated at more than 150,000 .
Both the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and the Taliban have agreed they would now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less clear is whether they have any common vision of the future .
Start with the Taliban ’ s commitment to crack down on international terrorist organizations .
Douglas London , a former CIA officer who was its head of counterterrorism in South and Southwest Asia , told Foreign Policy that the United States had little reason to trust the Taliban ’ s leadership would carry out its promises .
There ’ s also reason to doubt Abdul Ghani Baradar , the mullah who signed the agreement on behalf of the Taliban ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prison in October 2018 after a push by the United States to get the talks going ) , is in a position to make commitments or grant concessions .
“ Doha-based representatives [ Mohammad Abbas ] Stanakzai and Baradar have little sway , ” London said .
He also warned against interpreting the drop in violence in Afghanistan in the seven days prior to the signing of the deal—in adherence with commitments made to the United States—as an indication of the Taliban ’ s commitment to peace .
“ We shouldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violence last week because violence is always relatively low in winter with the fighting season commencing with the spring thaw , ” he said , referring to the annual change in weather conditions in Afghanistan .
“ The Taliban won ’ t agree to a cease-fire anytime soon over concern that fighters would not return from a prolonged break , or some could switch allegiance to ISIS , ” he said , using an acronym for the Islamic State .
Nevertheless , the Trump administration has chosen to believe that the Taliban is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are following a centralized command .
The text of the deal also gives little indication of how to achieve reconciliation between the Taliban and the Afghan government , which the group still does not recognize as legitimate .
According to the agreement , intra-Afghan talks will begin on March 10 .
Anas Haqqani , a recently released prisoner and the younger brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani , the leader of the Haqqani network which is a part of the Taliban , confirmed to Foreign Policy that the Taliban would engage in these talks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk to all Afghans , ” he told me as he rushed out of the conference hall where the signing took place .
Qatar is one of the contenders to host those talks , along with Germany , Norway , Indonesia , and Uzbekistan .
Qatari representatives , like those from the Taliban and Pakistan , were jubilant at the signing , seeing it as an endorsement of their own credentials as mediators .
They were especially pleased to be seen to have succeeded where similar talks hosted by their great regional rival @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Qatar ’ s top negotiator , Mutlaq Al-Qahtani , told Foreign Policy of his country ’ s critical role .
“ We told the U.S. from day one to streamline the process of talks , consolidate the efforts if they wanted the process to succeed , ” he said .
“ There were many regional spoilers.
” He added : “ It ’ s an ongoing process , and we stand ready to support as needed.
” It remains unclear how the deal will unfold in the coming weeks and months .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ winter ends .
An initial impediment has already stalled further progress .
While the U.S.-Taliban deal speaks of working “ immediately ” efforts to plan the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners from the Afghan government ’ s jails , in exchange for 1,000 held by the Taliban , the joint statement by the Afghan government and the United States says the “ feasibility ” of the prisoner release would be discussed once the March 10 talks are underway .
Meanwhile , some of the Taliban representatives in Doha inadvertently gave credence to fears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ahmadullah Wasiq , a former Taliban fighter who flew in from Kandahar , spoke in positive terms with Foreign Policy about the education received by his daughters at an Islamic madrassa .
He also professed to see nothing wrong with child marriage—including older men marrying girls under 14 years old—as long it has not been “ forced ” on the child .
There were , of course , no women in the 100-plus group of Taliban representatives that attended the signing ceremony .
There was just one cleanshaven man , a Taliban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reveal his identity , saying he wanted to be able to speak his mind without upsetting the bosses .
“ We are a very disciplined force , ” he said .
“ The Taliban is not and will never be ready for elections or women ’ s rights as in the West.
” “ Actually , there is no agreement even among the Taliban on what sort of power-sharing , if any , or governance structure there should be , ” he continued .
“ Maybe something like Iran ?
” In Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are elections between varieties of pro-regime politicians , the broader state policy is still decided by the supreme leader and his team of clerics .
Some Taliban leaders say the group will push for a similar system to be adopted in Afghanistan , but with power vested in a Kandahar-based amir ul–momineen ( leader of the faithful ) —the title conferred on long-time Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar .
But in a country split by tribal loyalties and still ruled by warlords in many parts , it ’ s unclear how a single @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respect of all Afghans .
The first and perhaps most important political battle to resolve , if and when the intra-Afghan talks happen , is the nature of the future Afghan state—a conversation that will inevitably become a debate about religion .
The Taliban have repeatedly said they want a restoration of the Islamic emirate they claim to have created before the U.S. invasion .
Afghanistan ’ s current government says the existing constitution already establishes the state as Islamic , while also providing for a republic , and that any religious objections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are ultimately only self-serving .
For now , the Taliban are celebrating what seems to be a victory .
Other Afghans , almost certainly the majority , are left to wonder whether they will survive their country ’ s next round of Talibanization .

DOHA, Qatar—At the pyramid-shaped seaside luxury hotel in Doha where the United States and the Taliban signed their long-awaited agreement, the 100 or so black turbans in attendance occasionally fluttered in the wind. The bearded Taliban leaders nonetheless had cheerful looks on their faces. For them, the Americans’ agreement to leave Afghanistan, even without any commitment to a cease-fire, was a declaration of victory for their side.
DOHA, Qatar—At the pyramid-shaped seaside luxury hotel in Doha where the United States and the Taliban signed their long-awaited agreement, the 100 or so black turbans in attendance occasionally fluttered in the wind. The bearded Taliban leaders nonetheless had cheerful looks on their faces. For them, the Americans’ agreement to leave Afghanistan, even without any commitment to a cease-fire, was a declaration of victory for their side.
The United States has promised to initially reduce its troops from 13,000 to 8,600, and eventually remove them all, along with other coalition forces, within the next 14 months. The withdrawal is binding only if the Taliban keeps its side of the bargain, by not allowing any terrorist organization to again attack the United States or its allies from Afghan soil, as happened on 9/11.
Around 3,500 U.S. and coalition soldiers have died in the conflict; the number of Afghan deaths is estimated at more than 150,000. Both the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and the Taliban have agreed they would now like to end their war. Far less clear is whether they have any common vision of the future.
Start with the Taliban’s commitment to crack down on international terrorist organizations. Douglas London, a former CIA officer who was its head of counterterrorism in South and Southwest Asia, told Foreign Policy that the United States had little reason to trust the Taliban’s leadership would carry out its promises. There’s also reason to doubt Abdul Ghani Baradar, the mullah who signed the agreement on behalf of the Taliban (after having been released from a Pakistani prison in October 2018 after a push by the United States to get the talks going), is in a position to make commitments or grant concessions. “Doha-based representatives [Mohammad Abbas] Stanakzai and Baradar have little sway,” London said.
He also warned against interpreting the drop in violence in Afghanistan in the seven days prior to the signing of the deal—in adherence with commitments made to the United States—as an indication of the Taliban’s commitment to peace. “We shouldn’t read too much into the reduction of violence last week because violence is always relatively low in winter with the fighting season commencing with the spring thaw,” he said, referring to the annual change in weather conditions in Afghanistan. “The Taliban won’t agree to a cease-fire anytime soon over concern that fighters would not return from a prolonged break, or some could switch allegiance to ISIS,” he said, using an acronym for the Islamic State. Nevertheless, the Trump administration has chosen to believe that the Taliban is a cohesive group and that foot soldiers are following a centralized command.
The text of the deal also gives little indication of how to achieve reconciliation between the Taliban and the Afghan government, which the group still does not recognize as legitimate. According to the agreement, intra-Afghan talks will begin on March 10. Anas Haqqani, a recently released prisoner and the younger brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani network which is a part of the Taliban, confirmed to Foreign Policy that the Taliban would engage in these talks. “On March 10, we will talk to all Afghans,” he told me as he rushed out of the conference hall where the signing took place.
Qatar is one of the contenders to host those talks, along with Germany, Norway, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan. Qatari representatives, like those from the Taliban and Pakistan, were jubilant at the signing, seeing it as an endorsement of their own credentials as mediators. They were especially pleased to be seen to have succeeded where similar talks hosted by their great regional rival, the United Arab Emirates, failed. Qatar’s top negotiator, Mutlaq Al-Qahtani, told Foreign Policy of his country’s critical role. “We told the U.S. from day one to streamline the process of talks, consolidate the efforts if they wanted the process to succeed,” he said. “There were many regional spoilers.” He added: “It’s an ongoing process, and we stand ready to support as needed.”
It remains unclear how the deal will unfold in the coming weeks and months. Many fear that violence will return as winter ends. An initial impediment has already stalled further progress. While the U.S.-Taliban deal speaks of working “immediately” efforts to plan the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners from the Afghan government’s jails, in exchange for 1,000 held by the Taliban, the joint statement by the Afghan government and the United States says the “feasibility” of the prisoner release would be discussed once the March 10 talks are underway.
Meanwhile, some of the Taliban representatives in Doha inadvertently gave credence to fears of eventual backsliding of Afghan political freedoms. Ahmadullah Wasiq, a former Taliban fighter who flew in from Kandahar, spoke in positive terms with Foreign Policy about the education received by his daughters at an Islamic madrassa. He also professed to see nothing wrong with child marriage—including older men marrying girls under 14 years old—as long it has not been “forced” on the child.
There were, of course, no women in the 100-plus group of Taliban representatives that attended the signing ceremony. There was just one cleanshaven man, a Taliban lobbyist in the West who refused to reveal his identity, saying he wanted to be able to speak his mind without upsetting the bosses. “We are a very disciplined force,” he said. “The Taliban is not and will never be ready for elections or women’s rights as in the West.”
“Actually, there is no agreement even among the Taliban on what sort of power-sharing, if any, or governance structure there should be,” he continued. “Maybe something like Iran?” In Iran’s political system, although there are elections between varieties of pro-regime politicians, the broader state policy is still decided by the supreme leader and his team of clerics. Some Taliban leaders say the group will push for a similar system to be adopted in Afghanistan, but with power vested in a Kandahar-based amir ul–momineen (leader of the faithful)—the title conferred on long-time Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar. But in a country split by tribal loyalties and still ruled by warlords in many parts, it’s unclear how a single religious leader can expect to command the respect of all Afghans.
The first and perhaps most important political battle to resolve, if and when the intra-Afghan talks happen, is the nature of the future Afghan state—a conversation that will inevitably become a debate about religion. The Taliban have repeatedly said they want a restoration of the Islamic emirate they claim to have created before the U.S. invasion. Afghanistan’s current government says the existing constitution already establishes the state as Islamic, while also providing for a republic, and that any religious objections made by the Taliban to these arrangements are ultimately only self-serving.
For now, the Taliban are celebrating what seems to be a victory. Other Afghans, almost certainly the majority, are left to wonder whether they will survive their country’s next round of Talibanization.


Erdogan’s Empty Threats

EDIRNE , Turkey—Driving northwest from Istanbul toward the Pazarkule border crossing between Turkey and Greece , refugees dot the road in groups carrying belongings and children , evoking memories of the migrant crisis of nearly five years ago .
Less than a mile from the signs bidding travelers goodbye from Turkey , smoke rises from the encampments of migrants trying to keep warm .
On Feb. 28 , the Turkish government announced Ankara would cease controlling its land and sea borders with Europe and open the passage for migrants wishing to cross .
The announcement kindled hopes among the millions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life in Europe were dashed after the European Union and Turkey sealed a deal in early 2016 to prevent migrants from illegally entering Europe.The announcement kindled hopes among the millions of refugees in Turkey .
WhatsApp and Telegram groups sprung up immediately following the Turkish border announcement , advertising a so-called hope convoy traveling from Istanbul .
Maps were sent out detailing where private buses would leave from , some chartered by local municipalities and others run by private companies with unregulated prices .
In the past three days , thousands of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to try their luck at a new and more stable life .
The majority are Afghans , with scores of Syrians , Iranians , Palestinians , Moroccans , Pakistanis , Bangladeshis , and migrants from various East African countries .
By the end of the day on Feb. 29 , between 2,000 and 4,000 people had amassed in front of Greek border patrol , while others were spread out in groups among the trees on the Turkish side .
The deployment of soldiers to Syria followed multiple calls from Ankara for Bashar al-Assad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the de-escalation zone in Idlib , mapped out under the 2018 Sochi agreement between Turkey and Russia , and came after meetings concerning a cease-fire between the respective parties repeatedly failed .
While the move might help Erdogan ’ s negotiating position , it isn ’ t helping migrants .
Even though Turkey ’ s border may now be open , the news is deceiving migrants attempting to travel to Europe , because Greece has stood firm in preventing any new entries .
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated on Twitter that “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tolerated ” and deployed riot police and military to the border with Turkey , who subsequently fired tear gas at the thousands of refugees , including women and children , who had arrived at the gate .
When Foreign Policy spoke to refugees attempting to enter Greece on Saturday , they were most eager to ask for any news that had been disseminated from the EU and whether they were going to open the border .
Sixteen-year-old Mohammed—who asked to use only his first name—had already spent one night in the rain with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ It ’ s cold , the kids are sick , we need food , it ’ s really hard here , ” Mohammed told Foreign Policy .
Having lived in Turkey for three years after a regime airstrike killed Mohammed ’ s mother and father in Syria , he and his sister-in-law explained , they needed to go to Greece due to the lack of work in Turkey and a lack of health insurance .
At least three people in wheelchairs , including children , were spotted in the crowd immediately in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , blocked off with barbed wire .
A few people took the role of speaking English and directing women and children to come closest to the border gate so they could negotiate with the Greek guards to let them in .
One of the refugees acting as a negotiator with a plainclothes Greek guard requested they bring someone from the United Nations to see firsthand the extent of what was happening on the border with Europe .
Kasim from Bangladesh—who also asked not to use his surname—was in dismay at the conditions women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ border , describing the scene as dangerous and possibly deadly .
“ They said it was open , but why would the [ Turkish ] president say that if the Greek side is closed ?
” Kasim , who has lived two years in Turkey , said .
“ I ’ ll wait here until they open the border.
” While some people were seen turning back into Turkey from the border having already been there for 24 hours and seeing no luck in crossing , others said they had no money to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ali Mahad , a 16-year-old from Afghanistan , said he had paid 200 Turkish lira ( about $ 32 ) for a bus to the border from Istanbul .
“ We ’ re trying to enter , and [ the Greeks ] are firing at us—people might die , ” Mahad said , referring to tear gas .
On Monday , the Greeks said they would be using live rounds , and there has been one death , a Syrian from Aleppo .
“ We have to wait here—all the people ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that no one in Turkey will give him work and all the refugees want is a future without war .
Mohammed and his family from Aleppo had paid 100 Turkish lira ( $ 16 ) per person for a private bus to take them to the border from Istanbul , and he said they had no money left , forcing them to remain .
As refugees started collecting firewood midafternoon in preparation for the subzero temperatures expected for Saturday night at the border , various aid groups handed out a minimal amount of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Saturday with just 10 bright blue backpacks containing sandwiches .
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees arrived later in the day , orderly asking for the refugees to stand in a long line to await the delivery of small brown boxes of food , including cookies .
While people ran to collect whatever rations they could , it became clear the shortage of food would soon become a dire problem .
The inflated numbers of migrants supposedly exiting Turkey both scares EU officials and pleases a certain demographic of Turkish voters who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ camped in the open , erecting shelters from whatever they can find including collected plastic from nearby agricultural plots .
TV appearances from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and statements made by Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu continued on Monday , announcing that the number of migrants leaving the country via the north land crossing to Greece had reached 117,677 .
This figure is alarming , considering that nowhere close to that number of refugees is even present at the border and the Greek authorities are not letting anyone in .
The absolute maximum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the border with Greece was no more than 4,000 , with many spread out still on Turkish soil waiting for Greece to open the barbed fence for them to cross .
The broadcasted success rate only further encourages migrants to head to the border , where they are met with dismal conditions rather than the freedom of Europe they are searching for .
The Turkish government-supported TRT Arabic channel even released a map to Europe , highlighting different routes that could be taken to reach as far as France , a feat seemingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations , told Foreign Policy the numbers are misguided , as Greece is determined not to let any migrants in .
“ Using refugees as a pawn is further damaging Turkey ’ s image and relations with the EU , ” Aydintasbas said .
“ It is also inviting more refugees to Turkey from the eastern border , particularly people from Afghanistan based on the notion that Turkey is now a gateway into Europe.
” The inflated numbers of migrants supposedly exiting Turkey both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demographic of Turkish voters who resent refugees inside Turkey and are unhappy that their government is sending soldiers to die inside Syria .
The Turkish government also has its reasons to force Europe ’ s hand .
Ankara has long argued that the 2016 deal with the EU to stem migrant flows into Europe was not upheld .
While Turkey sealed its borders in exchange for financial compensation for sheltering millions of refugees , the EU has not accepted its quota of settling people in its member states .
Europe promised it would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at a 1:1 ratio , though Aydintasbas said the numbers of those settled in the EU are very low and the quotas have not been filled .
Still , Europe thinks Turkey ’ s current action is a violation of the 2016 deal .
While the European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano told the press on Feb. 28 in Brussels that agreement stills stands and the Europeans “ expect Turkey to uphold its commitment , ” Greece announced on Monday it would stop accepting asylum applications for one month .
“ In the long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of further souring its relations with the EU by this type of threatening , ” Aydintasbas added .
The U.N. Won ’ t Save Idlib .
The EU and NATO Can .
It ’ s too late to defeat the Assad regime , but a humanitarian intervention by the EU and NATO could prevent countless deaths and another massive refugee crisis .
Turkey ’ s Intervention in Syria Will Slow Assad , But It Won ’ t Stop Him Ankara 's latest move might slow the Syrian regime 's Russian-backed onslaught on Idlib @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the throne so long as the world turns a blind eye .
With bloodshed and tensions rising between Syria and Turkey , the last rebel holdout of Idlib is turning into the biggest humanitarian crisis of the war .
Relations between the EU and Turkey tend to revolve around accession negotiations , which have been ongoing for over a decade .
“ As for preserving any hope that Turkey could , at some point in the future , could [ enter the EU ] , this gesture of opening the border makes it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While Turkey expects NATO or EU military support to protect its soldiers inside Syria , as the domestic population boils with resentment after dozens of their troops were killed by the Assad regime , it ’ s unlikely to happen given Russia ’ s huge presence in Syrian airspace .
And although NATO had confirmed it would assist Turkey with air support , Greece has retracted its vote due to the migrant influx at its borders .
Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said Athens would veto NATO ’ s actions if the statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compliance with the EU-Turkey deal on migration from Ankara in return .
This move shows Turkey ’ s tough talk toward Europe and its encouragement of refugees seeking to enter the EU may not result in the support Ankara is looking for .

EDIRNE, Turkey—Driving northwest from Istanbul toward the Pazarkule border crossing between Turkey and Greece, refugees dot the road in groups carrying belongings and children, evoking memories of the migrant crisis of nearly five years ago. Less than a mile from the signs bidding travelers goodbye from Turkey, smoke rises from the encampments of migrants trying to keep warm.
EDIRNE, Turkey—Driving northwest from Istanbul toward the Pazarkule border crossing between Turkey and Greece, refugees dot the road in groups carrying belongings and children, evoking memories of the migrant crisis of nearly five years ago. Less than a mile from the signs bidding travelers goodbye from Turkey, smoke rises from the encampments of migrants trying to keep warm.
On Feb. 28, the Turkish government announced Ankara would cease controlling its land and sea borders with Europe and open the passage for migrants wishing to cross. The announcement kindled hopes among the millions of refugees in Turkey whose dreams of life in Europe were dashed after the European Union and Turkey sealed a deal in early 2016 to prevent migrants from illegally entering Europe.The announcement kindled hopes among the millions of refugees in Turkey.
WhatsApp and Telegram groups sprung up immediately following the Turkish border announcement, advertising a so-called hope convoy traveling from Istanbul. Maps were sent out detailing where private buses would leave from, some chartered by local municipalities and others run by private companies with unregulated prices.
In the past three days, thousands of people have traveled from all over the country to try their luck at a new and more stable life. The majority are Afghans, with scores of Syrians, Iranians, Palestinians, Moroccans, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, and migrants from various East African countries. By the end of the day on Feb. 29, between 2,000 and 4,000 people had amassed in front of Greek border patrol, while others were spread out in groups among the trees on the Turkish side.
Nearly 4,000 refugees from countries such as Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Palestine, Bangladesh, and Morocco fan out into the Turkish military zone near the border with Greece on Feb. 29, collecting firewood from the forest to keep warm overnight.
The decision by Turkey to open its borders to Greece, as well as fellow EU member Bulgaria, came after 36 of its soldiers were killed in an airstrike by the Syrian regime near Idlib on Feb. 27. Many observers see Erdogan’s sudden reversal of Turkey’s 2016 agreement with Europe as a tool to pressure the EU and international community into supporting Ankara’s recent military involvement in the nine-year Syrian war.
The deployment of soldiers to Syria followed multiple calls from Ankara for Bashar al-Assad’s regime to pull back from the de-escalation zone in Idlib, mapped out under the 2018 Sochi agreement between Turkey and Russia, and came after meetings concerning a cease-fire between the respective parties repeatedly failed.
While the move might help Erdogan’s negotiating position, it isn’t helping migrants. Even though Turkey’s border may now be open, the news is deceiving migrants attempting to travel to Europe, because Greece has stood firm in preventing any new entries. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated on Twitter that “no illegal entries into Greece will be tolerated” and deployed riot police and military to the border with Turkey, who subsequently fired tear gas at the thousands of refugees, including women and children, who had arrived at the gate.
When Foreign Policy spoke to refugees attempting to enter Greece on Saturday, they were most eager to ask for any news that had been disseminated from the EU and whether they were going to open the border. Sixteen-year-old Mohammed—who asked to use only his first name—had already spent one night in the rain with his sister-in-law and her five children. “It’s cold, the kids are sick, we need food, it’s really hard here,” Mohammed told Foreign Policy.
Having lived in Turkey for three years after a regime airstrike killed Mohammed’s mother and father in Syria, he and his sister-in-law explained, they needed to go to Greece due to the lack of work in Turkey and a lack of health insurance. At least three people in wheelchairs, including children, were spotted in the crowd immediately in front of the border gate with Greece, blocked off with barbed wire.
A few people took the role of speaking English and directing women and children to come closest to the border gate so they could negotiate with the Greek guards to let them in. One of the refugees acting as a negotiator with a plainclothes Greek guard requested they bring someone from the United Nations to see firsthand the extent of what was happening on the border with Europe. Kasim from Bangladesh—who also asked not to use his surname—was in dismay at the conditions women and babies were sleeping in at the border, describing the scene as dangerous and possibly deadly.
Greek guards at the Pazarkule border crossing have erected barbed wire to block access to the country even to visitors on Feb. 29.
“They said it was open, but why would the [Turkish] president say that if the Greek side is closed?” Kasim, who has lived two years in Turkey, said. “I’ll wait here until they open the border.”
While some people were seen turning back into Turkey from the border having already been there for 24 hours and seeing no luck in crossing, others said they had no money to pay for buses back to their homes. Ali Mahad, a 16-year-old from Afghanistan, said he had paid 200 Turkish lira (about $32) for a bus to the border from Istanbul.
“We’re trying to enter, and [the Greeks] are firing at us—people might die,” Mahad said, referring to tear gas. On Monday, the Greeks said they would be using live rounds, and there has been one death, a Syrian from Aleppo. “We have to wait here—all the people’s money is finished.” He added that no one in Turkey will give him work and all the refugees want is a future without war.
Mohammed and his family from Aleppo had paid 100 Turkish lira ($16) per person for a private bus to take them to the border from Istanbul, and he said they had no money left, forcing them to remain.
As refugees started collecting firewood midafternoon in preparation for the subzero temperatures expected for Saturday night at the border, various aid groups handed out a minimal amount of food. The Turkish SBK Foundation arrived on Saturday with just 10 bright blue backpacks containing sandwiches.
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees arrived later in the day, orderly asking for the refugees to stand in a long line to await the delivery of small brown boxes of food, including cookies. While people ran to collect whatever rations they could, it became clear the shortage of food would soon become a dire problem.
The inflated numbers of migrants supposedly exiting Turkey both scares EU officials and pleases a certain demographic of Turkish voters who resent refugees
The thousands of migrants are camped in the open, erecting shelters from whatever they can find including collected plastic from nearby agricultural plots.
TV appearances from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and statements made by Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu continued on Monday, announcing that the number of migrants leaving the country via the north land crossing to Greece had reached 117,677.
This figure is alarming, considering that nowhere close to that number of refugees is even present at the border and the Greek authorities are not letting anyone in. The absolute maximum number of refugees this reporter saw at the border with Greece was no more than 4,000, with many spread out still on Turkish soil waiting for Greece to open the barbed fence for them to cross.
The broadcasted success rate only further encourages migrants to head to the border, where they are met with dismal conditions rather than the freedom of Europe they are searching for. The Turkish government-supported TRT Arabic channel even released a map to Europe, highlighting different routes that could be taken to reach as far as France, a feat seemingly impossible for now.
Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Foreign Policy the numbers are misguided, as Greece is determined not to let any migrants in.
“Using refugees as a pawn is further damaging Turkey’s image and relations with the EU,” Aydintasbas said. “It is also inviting more refugees to Turkey from the eastern border, particularly people from Afghanistan based on the notion that Turkey is now a gateway into Europe.”
The inflated numbers of migrants supposedly exiting Turkey both scares EU officials and pleases a certain demographic of Turkish voters who resent refugees inside Turkey and are unhappy that their government is sending soldiers to die inside Syria. The Turkish government also has its reasons to force Europe’s hand. Ankara has long argued that the 2016 deal with the EU to stem migrant flows into Europe was not upheld. While Turkey sealed its borders in exchange for financial compensation for sheltering millions of refugees, the EU has not accepted its quota of settling people in its member states.
Europe promised it would accept an orderly refugee transfer from Turkey at a 1:1 ratio, though Aydintasbas said the numbers of those settled in the EU are very low and the quotas have not been filled. Still, Europe thinks Turkey’s current action is a violation of the 2016 deal. While the European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano told the press on Feb. 28 in Brussels that agreement stills stands and the Europeans “expect Turkey to uphold its commitment,” Greece announced on Monday it would stop accepting asylum applications for one month. “In the long run, Turkey is running the risk of further souring its relations with the EU by this type of threatening,” Aydintasbas added.
Read More Displaced Syrian children stand by the Turkish border wall at an informal camp in Kafr Lusin village in Syria's northwestern province of Idlib on Feb. 21. Displaced Syrian children stand by the Turkish border wall at an informal camp in Kafr Lusin village in Syria's northwestern province of Idlib on Feb. 21. The U.N. Won’t Save Idlib. The EU and NATO Can. It’s too late to defeat the Assad regime, but a humanitarian intervention by the EU and NATO could prevent countless deaths and another massive refugee crisis. Argument | Sinan Ulgen An aerial view taken on Feb. 6, 2020, shows smoke billowing from tires burnt by Syrians in an attempt to hinder air strikes. An aerial view taken on Feb. 6, 2020, shows smoke billowing from tires burnt by Syrians in an attempt to hinder air strikes. Turkey’s Intervention in Syria Will Slow Assad, But It Won’t Stop Him Ankara's latest move might slow the Syrian regime's Russian-backed onslaught on Idlib, but the tyrant will remain on the throne so long as the world turns a blind eye. Argument | Kareem Shaheen Syrian people displaced from the south of Idlib province arrive at a camp for the internally displaced Syrian people displaced from the south of Idlib province arrive at a camp for the internally displaced Desperate, Thousands of Syrians Flee Toward Turkish Border With bloodshed and tensions rising between Syria and Turkey, the last rebel holdout of Idlib is turning into the biggest humanitarian crisis of the war. Report | Elizabeth Tsurkov
Relations between the EU and Turkey tend to revolve around accession negotiations, which have been ongoing for over a decade. “As for preserving any hope that Turkey could, at some point in the future, could [enter the EU], this gesture of opening the border makes it very difficult,” she said.
While Turkey expects NATO or EU military support to protect its soldiers inside Syria, as the domestic population boils with resentment after dozens of their troops were killed by the Assad regime, it’s unlikely to happen given Russia’s huge presence in Syrian airspace.
And although NATO had confirmed it would assist Turkey with air support, Greece has retracted its vote due to the migrant influx at its borders. Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said Athens would veto NATO’s actions if the statement of support for Turkey does not demand compliance with the EU-Turkey deal on migration from Ankara in return.
This move shows Turkey’s tough talk toward Europe and its encouragement of refugees seeking to enter the EU may not result in the support Ankara is looking for.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-02--Why India’s Muslims Are in Grave Danger

Why India’s Muslims Are in Grave Danger

Why India ’ s Muslims Are in Grave Danger India has been jolted by the deadliest communal violence in New Delhi in decades .
The fighting began on Sunday , Feb. 23—just before U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in the country for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—and quickly escalated into mass riots , with Hindu mobs targeting Muslim homes in the city ’ s northeast .
At least 45 people were killed—mostly Muslims .
Ashutosh Varshney , a Brown University professor and author of the prize-winning Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life : Hindus and Muslims in India , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delhi bear some of the hallmarks of an organized pogrom .
India has been there before : In 2002 , in Gujarat , when Modi was the state ’ s chief minister , more than 1,000 people were killed in religious riots .
Most were Muslims .
While Modi was later cleared of wrongdoing by the country ’ s judiciary , critics say that he could have done much more to prevent the attacks .
And in 1984 , again in Delhi , an estimated 3,000 Sikhs were targeted and killed after Prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sikh bodyguards .
In both cases , experts say , riots could not have been conducted without some complicity on the part of the police .
Varshney believes last week ’ s deadly clashes could be repeated in other parts of the country—and that Muslims are particularly vulnerable .
Here is a transcript of Foreign Policy ’ s interview with Varshney , lightly edited for clarity .
Ravi Agrawal : There ’ s been a bit of debate about whether the violence in Delhi last week should be defined as a riot or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you explain the difference ?
Ashutosh Varshney : Pogroms are a special class of riots when it ’ s no longer simply a clash between two mobs or groups .
Instead , the police are siding with one group either by looking away or by abetting and sometimes even directly participating in the violence .
The key difference between riots and pogroms lies in the behavior of the state—through its police .
The term was born in tsarist Russia when pogroms were launched against Jews .
RA : Given what we know now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Delhi ?
AV : On the first day and night—Sunday , Feb. 23—we saw two mobs going at each other .
There were deaths on both sides .
But on the second and third day , the partisanship of the police became clear .
A mosque , a Muslim shrine , and Muslim homes and shops were attacked .
The police did not respond to calls for help .
Logs suggest a high volume of those calls came from predominantly Muslim parts of northeast Delhi .
But the police failed to show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abandon .
The second part is more direct participation .
There are videos , in particular one which shows young Muslim men being hit by a Hindu mob .
And the cops are asking the fallen and beaten Muslim men to sing the national anthem—as they ’ re being hit .
That is quite egregious .
But the more significant evidence thus far is of the police simply looking away and not responding to Muslim pleas for help as homes , places of worship , and commercial enterprises were attacked with impunity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this happened in New Delhi , the capital city of India , is significant .
AV : Delhi has a unique structure for police operations .
In every other part of India , the police report to the state government , and not to the central government , because law and order is defined as a state subject by India ’ s constitution .
But Delhi ’ s police reports to the central government , not to the state government—technically , Delhi is not a full-fledged state .
The fact that the central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party ( BJP ) would therefore make Modi ’ s government responsible for law and order in Delhi .
And the minister of home affairs , Amit Shah , would be the final authority to which Delhi ’ s police force would report .
So the responsibility for the failure to maintain law and order also lies at his door .
RA : Some of the perpetrators of the attacks were heard shouting “ Jai Shri Ram , ” or “ Victory to Lord Ram.
” Can you explain the significance of that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ram , ” theologically speaking , is a celebration of Lord Ram , the Hindu deity known for compassion and considered to be the embodiment of the highest morality and ethics .
But in recent Hindu nationalist ideological campaigns , Jai Shri Ram has been weaponized to express muscularity , masculinity , and coercion—as opposed to kindness and compassion .
So , the meaning of Jai Shri Ram has been transformed into a battle cry for the establishment of a Hindu nationalist polity , presided over by a Hindu nationalist state .
RA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s events in Delhi as bearing the hallmarks of the beginning of a pogrom , how severe is the danger of other , similar outbreaks of violence across the country ?
AV : The most vulnerable Muslim populations are in BJP-ruled states , because the role of the police is critical—and the police comes under the state government .
If BJP governments in various states of India push the police against the Muslims , then only the bravest police officers would resist , because the authority structure is very clear .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is grave .
Uttar Pradesh , India ’ s largest state with a population of 200 million , seems particularly vulnerable .
Muslims comprise about 18 percent of the population there , and they are spread out all over the state .
There was a big riot in Muzaffarnagar in 2013 , for example , and the police were nowhere to be seen .
UP is also ruled by a politician , Yogi Adityanath , whose anti-Muslim prejudice and fervor is well-known and has been openly displayed .
RA : What can civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreaks of violence ?
AV : Civil society can be quite important in creating bulwarks of resistance and peace , but that is not something it can do instantly .
The creation of inter-religious networks between Hindus and Muslims takes a few years , if not more .
The probability of integrated communities coming apart is much lower than the probability of segregated communities coming apart .
A more immediate issue always is how to minimize the extent or the intensity of violence .
And that ’ s where the media plays a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by condemning what it finds unacceptable and sees as clear violations of norms , rules , and laws ; and by creating a narrative of critique , the media can slow down or reduce the intensity of violence .
Sometimes the police intervene , too—even without political approval .
Legally and constitutionally , the police can step in during moments of crisis .
However , those police officers , administrators , and bureaucrats seem fewer in number today than was the case earlier .
They are not entirely absent : I repeatedly came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officers and administrators who would simply apply the law and not follow a political script .
But a large number of police officers and bureaucrats do not have the courage to stand up to political authorities .
RA : Journalists in India are under threat , meanwhile .
One photographer told the Washington Post a mob threatened to remove his pants to check whether he was circumcised—essentially to determine if he was Muslim .
How much of this has to do with messaging from the government ?
AV : The ideology of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instructions do not have to come from the top .
So-called agents devise their own strategies and think that by acting in a bigoted manner , by attacking Muslims , they could rise in the political hierarchy .
So the incentive structure that gets created from the top begins to acquire a logic of its own and activates storm troopers and lower-level functionaries on the ground who try to interpret what the party bosses might appreciate or be pleased by .
RA : Prime Minister Modi ’ s second term began last May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election .
While signs of the current muscular , chauvinistic brand of Hinduism were there in his first term as well—as we saw in several incidents of lynchings of Muslims , for example—there ’ s been a marked acceleration in the ruling BJP ’ s push for its social agenda .
Why is that the case ?
AV : Ahead of Modi ’ s first term in 2014 , the political campaign had very few Hindu nationalist themes .
I couldn ’ t count more than two speeches .
You can say there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigotry in the functioning of the midlevel politicians , but it wasn ’ t a dominant narrative .
In the campaign ahead of Modi ’ s second term , in 2019 , the platform was more directly about the Hindu nationalist reconstruction of India .
It can be claimed that given that the BJP ’ s vote share increased by 7 percentage points , India ’ s elections have authorized a more ideological and cultural push of the Hindu nationalist variety .
But it ’ s also clear from the election data that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The vote in favor of Modi was not necessarily one of simply pushing a social and cultural agenda .
National security was also an issue .
Welfare programs had gained popularity : The BJP ’ s programs for sanitation and cooking gas were popular .
To see the May 2019 election as a vote for an ideological restructuring of India would be to place an excessive interpretation on the wishes of the electorate .
But that ’ s what happens in politics .
The BJP seems sufficiently emboldened to use the legislative route @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Citizenship Amendment Act that passed on Dec. 11—leading to the current spate of protests—was the culmination of that .

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