foreignpolicy--2020-02-20--When Social Justice Activism Becomes an Act of Self-Destruction

When Social Justice Activism Becomes an Act of Self-Destruction Last week , all four candidates to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the U.K. Labour Party after his crushing defeat this past December lined up at an event held by the Jewish Labour Movement and Labour Friends of Israel and identified themselves as Zionists .
They all , quite reasonably , qualified the word , explaining that they meant Israel had a right to exist , but they used it and applied it to themselves .
It was a gesture that would have been unthinkable a year ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party were routinely dismissed by party leadership as right-wing or Israeli smears .
Only the crushing electoral defeat in December changed the calculations of party elites .
The candidates for party leadership have now been forced to acknowledge that perceptions of people outside the Labour Party must matter if ever it is to be elected again .
Yet it would be a mistake to imagine the Labour Party ’ s most devoted supporters feel similarly chastened .
In the focus groups conducted earlier this year , only 6 percent of those who voted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought that anti-Semitism was a real problem that he should have dealt with ; 90 percent thought it was all or mostly inflated by the media .
And so , with the boil of anti-Semitism lanced , the party has been busy preparing its next performance of gratuitous self-flagellation .
Labour Campaign for Trans Rights , a pressure group with the backing of 11 members of Parliament , among them the three female candidates for leader , demanded the expulsion from the party of anyone expressing “ bigoted , transphobic views ” including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were described as “ hate groups.
” With this , the smoldering hostilities within the party and the British left more generally burst into the open .
The organizations marked down for expulsion were the Woman ’ s Place UK and the LGB Alliance , both of them organizations with socialist and feminist roots that see the present fight for transgender people ’ s rights as an assault on women ’ s rights to gender-specific legal protections .
Lachlan Stuart , a gay man who coordinated Labour ’ s manifesto at the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wrote , “ most of the people who pop up on social media or on your TV screens claiming to speak for and promote the interests and well-being of trans people are … not really being driven by a motivation to improve the quality of life for trans people .
Rather , they [ seek ] … to erode or erase the political rights of female people or , as we used to say , women.
” Stuart , and those who agree with him , are denounced as “ trans-exclusionary radical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And if hardly anyone has heard of Lachlan Stuart , almost everyone has heard of J.K. Rowling , the Harry Potter author who was widely criticized on Twitter for posting , after a recent court case involving a think tank contractor fired for posting tweets critical of trans rights , “ Dress however you please .
Call yourself whatever you like .
Sleep with any consenting adult who ’ ll have you .
Live your best life in peace and security .
But force women out of their jobs for stating that sex @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” After voicing support for the fired contractor , Rowling was labeled a TERF by critics .
With the leadership candidates ’ support of Labour Campaign for Trans Rights , it would appear that Rowling and those who agree with her may no longer belong in the contemporary Labour Party .
The question of a distinction between sex and gender is at the heart of the present dispute .
Since 2005 it has been legally possible to have a change of gender recognized in Britain .
There are hoops to jump through first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the claimant must demonstrate that they have , or have had , gender dysphoria .
The demand of LGBT rights groups , such as Stonewall , is that this be replaced by a process of self-identification : that anyone who declares that they are a member of a different gender should be treated as such in all contexts by the law .
This is already the case in Ireland and several U.S. states .
To some extent , self-identification is already expected and demanded by British law .
People who change gender @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preferred gender ” for two years before acquiring a certificate , and what is that legally acknowledged interim if not a period of self-identification ?
But advocates against formally applying the policy argue that normalizing the process brings in the possibility of endless legal conflicts , including over the status of existing legal protections for women .
The Guardian wrote in an editorial on the subject in October 2018 , “ While campaigners for trans rights are entitled to push for laws that they believe advance equality , feminists are entitled to question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ women .
Neither group is a homogeneous bloc and there are more than two points of view .
UK law acknowledges circumstances where there is a conflict of interests between trans women and other women .
The Equality Act allows for single-sex services to exclude trans people where this is ‘ a proportionate means of meeting a legitimate aim ’ , such as in rape support services .
While some trans activists have argued for these exemptions to be abolished , some feminists believe they should be strengthened.
” Even the suggestion that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trans rights is anathema to most trans rights activists .
To quote one furious letter sent to Guardian editors in response to the editorial : “ Please understand that you have made clear that the Guardian ’ s official position is that anti-trans ‘ feminists ’ —meaning people who oppose trans rights [ italics in the original ] —have a legitimate and worthwhile perspective .
‘ Feminists ’ who campaign against equal rights for trans women are not feminists , they are bigots.
” The question is not entirely theoretical .
At a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the leading outsider candidate for the Labour leadership , responded to a question about whether trans women convicted of crimes should be held in women ’ s or men ’ s prisons—a particular focus of those labeled TERFs—by saying , “ I believe fundamentally in the right to self ID .
… I think trans women are women and trans men are men.
” Stonewall and other transgender rights groups reject the argument that holding transgender women in women ’ s prisons involves any conflict of rights .
Heather Peto , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his recent post—wrote on Facebook , “ Communities only turn on minorities when the quasi-fascists persuade them that one group ’ s rights come at the expense of another .
Trans rights do not take away from women ’ s rights , this false narrative comes from misinformation and vilification in the Tory press and on social media by anti-trans campaigners.
” This in some ways mirrors the party ’ s response to the accusations of anti-Semitism that plagued the Labour Party ahead of last year ’ s election .
But how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the conflicts over trans rights have not yet reached the mainstream , the polling that has been done suggests that there is widespread support for trans rights in principle but that this support is also shallow , and there appears to be some preference falsification on the issue .
The authoritative 2019 British Social Attitudes survey found that only 15 percent of the population described themselves as even slightly prejudiced against trans people , and 83 percent claimed not to be prejudiced at all .
But the report compared these results to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the population felt that suitably qualified transgender people “ definitely should ” be employed as police officers or primary school teachers .
( Employment discrimination along those lines would in fact be illegal under the Equality Act , which all factions in Labour support . )
The difference between those who oppose discrimination in principle and the much smaller number who would always oppose it in practice suggests that there is a great deal that Labour could do to defend the trans rights that are already established in law and supported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those presently denounced as TERFs , rather than focusing on fighting within the party .
There is not a great deal of agitation against trans people taking a prominent place in society , but there is some , and the party could be taking a stand against it .
I personally know two trans women ordained into the Church of England , and the—frequently loathsome—protests against their acceptance did not come from feminists but from conservative campaigners for traditional gender roles .
Some of those who reject the assertion that trans women are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they have the right to be treated as if they were women under almost all circumstances .
If the party is serious about gaining power , perhaps it should be trying to maximize the support for its policies by accepting those who hold this set of beliefs .
If this issue becomes politically salient—which at present , outside the Labour leadership campaign , it isn ’ t—I suspect trans people will suffer real harm .
Both sides believe they are defending vulnerable and persecuted minorities .
The rhetoric escalates accordingly .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Twitter followers , has been one of the most prominent TERF allies .
He recently compared doctors who give young transgender people medical treatment as part of the transition process to Nazi experimentalists .
This and similar rhetorical flights have the potential to damage trans people generally .
Outrage or righteous fury , once whipped up , is hard to confine within its intended limits .
Keir Starmer , the favorite to be the next Labour leader , said that “ trans rights are human rights , ” but “ there are difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but treating it as a political football , with camps taking lumps out of each other , just does everybody a disservice .
… We do need to dial this down.
” He refused to sign the demand that the party reject Woman ’ s Place UK , LGB Alliance , and other trans-exclusionist groups .
This is only common sense : The conflicts that the activists in these groups identify between cisgender women ’ s and transgender people ’ s rights are much better dealt with on an informal , case-by-case basis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this fight , on both sides , the nastier and more absolutist it will get .
Nevertheless , Starmer endorsed a similar program , but without the specific demand for expelling members of named organizations .
So all the candidates have now gotten themselves with greater or lesser enthusiasm into a bidding war for a prize that will be electoral cyanide if voters feel they themselves are being targeted as hate-filled bigots .
The Labour Party is still some years—and probably another crushing election defeat—before its candidates do a complete turnaround and stand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all TERFs , just as they declared themselves all Zionists last week .
But if things keep on the way they are , that moment is most likely coming .

Last week, all four candidates to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the U.K. Labour Party after his crushing defeat this past December lined up at an event held by the Jewish Labour Movement and Labour Friends of Israel and identified themselves as Zionists. They all, quite reasonably, qualified the word, explaining that they meant Israel had a right to exist, but they used it and applied it to themselves. It was a gesture that would have been unthinkable a year ago, when complaints about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party were routinely dismissed by party leadership as right-wing or Israeli smears.
Last week, all four candidates to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the U.K. Labour Party after his crushing defeat this past December lined up at an event held by the Jewish Labour Movement and Labour Friends of Israel and identified themselves as Zionists. They all, quite reasonably, qualified the word, explaining that they meant Israel had a right to exist, but they used it and applied it to themselves. It was a gesture that would have been unthinkable a year ago, when complaints about anti-Semitism in the Labour Party were routinely dismissed by party leadership as right-wing or Israeli smears.
Only the crushing electoral defeat in December changed the calculations of party elites. The candidates for party leadership have now been forced to acknowledge that perceptions of people outside the Labour Party must matter if ever it is to be elected again. Yet it would be a mistake to imagine the Labour Party’s most devoted supporters feel similarly chastened. In the focus groups conducted earlier this year, only 6 percent of those who voted for Corbyn in the last leadership election thought that anti-Semitism was a real problem that he should have dealt with; 90 percent thought it was all or mostly inflated by the media.
And so, with the boil of anti-Semitism lanced, the party has been busy preparing its next performance of gratuitous self-flagellation. Labour Campaign for Trans Rights, a pressure group with the backing of 11 members of Parliament, among them the three female candidates for leader, demanded the expulsion from the party of anyone expressing “bigoted, transphobic views” including members of two named organizations, which were described as “hate groups.” With this, the smoldering hostilities within the party and the British left more generally burst into the open.
The organizations marked down for expulsion were the Woman’s Place UK and the LGB Alliance, both of them organizations with socialist and feminist roots that see the present fight for transgender people’s rights as an assault on women’s rights to gender-specific legal protections. Lachlan Stuart, a gay man who coordinated Labour’s manifesto at the last election, recently explained that perspective when he wrote, “most of the people who pop up on social media or on your TV screens claiming to speak for and promote the interests and well-being of trans people are … not really being driven by a motivation to improve the quality of life for trans people. Rather, they [seek] … to erode or erase the political rights of female people or, as we used to say, women.”
Stuart, and those who agree with him, are denounced as “trans-exclusionary radical feminists,” or “TERFs.” And if hardly anyone has heard of Lachlan Stuart, almost everyone has heard of J.K. Rowling, the Harry Potter author who was widely criticized on Twitter for posting, after a recent court case involving a think tank contractor fired for posting tweets critical of trans rights, “Dress however you please. Call yourself whatever you like. Sleep with any consenting adult who’ll have you. Live your best life in peace and security. But force women out of their jobs for stating that sex is real? #IStandWithMaya #ThisIsNotADrill.”
After voicing support for the fired contractor, Rowling was labeled a TERF by critics. With the leadership candidates’ support of Labour Campaign for Trans Rights, it would appear that Rowling and those who agree with her may no longer belong in the contemporary Labour Party.
The question of a distinction between sex and gender is at the heart of the present dispute. Since 2005 it has been legally possible to have a change of gender recognized in Britain. There are hoops to jump through first: There is a waiting period, and the claimant must demonstrate that they have, or have had, gender dysphoria. The demand of LGBT rights groups, such as Stonewall, is that this be replaced by a process of self-identification: that anyone who declares that they are a member of a different gender should be treated as such in all contexts by the law. This is already the case in Ireland and several U.S. states.
To some extent, self-identification is already expected and demanded by British law. People who change gender legally must have “lived as their preferred gender” for two years before acquiring a certificate, and what is that legally acknowledged interim if not a period of self-identification? But advocates against formally applying the policy argue that normalizing the process brings in the possibility of endless legal conflicts, including over the status of existing legal protections for women.
The Guardian wrote in an editorial on the subject in October 2018, “While campaigners for trans rights are entitled to push for laws that they believe advance equality, feminists are entitled to question whether such changes could adversely affect other women. Neither group is a homogeneous bloc and there are more than two points of view. UK law acknowledges circumstances where there is a conflict of interests between trans women and other women. The Equality Act allows for single-sex services to exclude trans people where this is ‘a proportionate means of meeting a legitimate aim’, such as in rape support services. While some trans activists have argued for these exemptions to be abolished, some feminists believe they should be strengthened.”
Even the suggestion that there might be conflicts between feminism and trans rights is anathema to most trans rights activists. To quote one furious letter sent to Guardian editors in response to the editorial: “Please understand that you have made clear that the Guardian’s official position is that anti-trans ‘feminists’—meaning people who oppose trans rights [italics in the original]—have a legitimate and worthwhile perspective. ‘Feminists’ who campaign against equal rights for trans women are not feminists, they are bigots.”
The question is not entirely theoretical. At a campaign event last week, Lisa Nandy, the leading outsider candidate for the Labour leadership, responded to a question about whether trans women convicted of crimes should be held in women’s or men’s prisons—a particular focus of those labeled TERFs—by saying, “I believe fundamentally in the right to self ID. … I think trans women are women and trans men are men.”
Stonewall and other transgender rights groups reject the argument that holding transgender women in women’s prisons involves any conflict of rights. Heather Peto, the co-chair of LGBT+ Labour—whom Lachlan Stuart targeted in his recent post—wrote on Facebook, “Communities only turn on minorities when the quasi-fascists persuade them that one group’s rights come at the expense of another. Trans rights do not take away from women’s rights, this false narrative comes from misinformation and vilification in the Tory press and on social media by anti-trans campaigners.”
This in some ways mirrors the party’s response to the accusations of anti-Semitism that plagued the Labour Party ahead of last year’s election. But how does the public perceive it?
Although the conflicts over trans rights have not yet reached the mainstream, the polling that has been done suggests that there is widespread support for trans rights in principle but that this support is also shallow, and there appears to be some preference falsification on the issue. The authoritative 2019 British Social Attitudes survey found that only 15 percent of the population described themselves as even slightly prejudiced against trans people, and 83 percent claimed not to be prejudiced at all. But the report compared these results to a 2017 survey that found just over 40 percent of the population felt that suitably qualified transgender people “definitely should” be employed as police officers or primary school teachers. (Employment discrimination along those lines would in fact be illegal under the Equality Act, which all factions in Labour support.)
The difference between those who oppose discrimination in principle and the much smaller number who would always oppose it in practice suggests that there is a great deal that Labour could do to defend the trans rights that are already established in law and supported by a broad feminist coalition, including those presently denounced as TERFs, rather than focusing on fighting within the party. There is not a great deal of agitation against trans people taking a prominent place in society, but there is some, and the party could be taking a stand against it. I personally know two trans women ordained into the Church of England, and the—frequently loathsome—protests against their acceptance did not come from feminists but from conservative campaigners for traditional gender roles. Some of those who reject the assertion that trans women are women say they would at least accept that they have the right to be treated as if they were women under almost all circumstances. If the party is serious about gaining power, perhaps it should be trying to maximize the support for its policies by accepting those who hold this set of beliefs.
If this issue becomes politically salient—which at present, outside the Labour leadership campaign, it isn’t—I suspect trans people will suffer real harm. Both sides believe they are defending vulnerable and persecuted minorities. The rhetoric escalates accordingly. The comedy writer Graham Linehan, with 600,000 Twitter followers, has been one of the most prominent TERF allies. He recently compared doctors who give young transgender people medical treatment as part of the transition process to Nazi experimentalists. This and similar rhetorical flights have the potential to damage trans people generally. Outrage or righteous fury, once whipped up, is hard to confine within its intended limits.
Keir Starmer, the favorite to be the next Labour leader, said that “trans rights are human rights,” but “there are difficult questions about how we resolve this, but treating it as a political football, with camps taking lumps out of each other, just does everybody a disservice. … We do need to dial this down.” He refused to sign the demand that the party reject Woman’s Place UK, LGB Alliance, and other trans-exclusionist groups. This is only common sense: The conflicts that the activists in these groups identify between cisgender women’s and transgender people’s rights are much better dealt with on an informal, case-by-case basis. The more principles are invoked in this fight, on both sides, the nastier and more absolutist it will get.
Nevertheless, Starmer endorsed a similar program, but without the specific demand for expelling members of named organizations. So all the candidates have now gotten themselves with greater or lesser enthusiasm into a bidding war for a prize that will be electoral cyanide if voters feel they themselves are being targeted as hate-filled bigots.
The Labour Party is still some years—and probably another crushing election defeat—before its candidates do a complete turnaround and stand in a line to declare they are all TERFs, just as they declared themselves all Zionists last week. But if things keep on the way they are, that moment is most likely coming.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-20--Tensions Escalate Between Turkey and Syria

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Turkey is sending reinforcements to northwestern Syria as the Syrian government ’ s offensive pushes on , a gunman with far-right sympathies kills nine in Germany , and two passengers from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan have died of the coronavirus .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday , please sign up here .
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Wednesday that it could be “ a matter of time ” before Turkey launched a military operation to push back the Syrian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Syria , as talks with Russia failed to resolve the crisis .
Turkey has already sent additional troops to Idlib province , increasing the risk of a direct confrontation .
The Syrian forces are backed by Russian air support .
There are now around 15,000 Turkish troops in northwest Syria , Reuters reports , with more convoys just over the border inside Turkey .
Erdogan said Ankara intends to secure Idlib even as it continues meeting with Moscow .
“ We are entering the last days for the regime to stop its hostility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ final warnings , ” he said .
It ’ s yet not clear when Russia and Turkey will resume talks .
Consolidating control .
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ’ s government is solidifying its grip over the country ’ s last rebel strongholds , particularly after taking back Aleppo province and the M5 highway linking Aleppo to Damascus .
( Flights between the cities—Syria ’ s two largest—resumed on Wednesday . )
The ongoing Turkish intervention could still slow the government campaign but it ’ s unlikely to stop it , as Kareem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Almost 1 million people , mostly women and children , have been displaced by the government offensive in Idlib , with airstrikes hitting hospitals and refugee camps .
Now , many are stranded on the road—unable to cross the closed Turkish border .
The displacement is overwhelming aid agencies and alarming Turkey , which says it can not handle more refugees .
Far-right terrorist attack near Frankfurt .
At least nine people have been killed in two shootings in Hanau , Germany—near Frankfurt .
The gunman fled the first scene in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chase and a police helicopter searching over the city .
Local media reported that the attacker had opened fire near two hookah bars frequented by the city ’ s Kurdish population .
The attacker was later found dead alongside another corpse believed to be his mother .
Federal police have taken over the investigation and prosecutors see “ indications of an anti-foreigner motivation ” based on a letter and video containing a variety of conspiracy theories .
The suspected shooter , a 43-year-old German man , published a confession , and also made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of underground military installations where children are being abused and killed .
In the one-hour video , the attacker also claimed that Germany is run by secret intelligence agencies with wide-ranging powers and speaks negatively about migrants from Arab countries and Turkey .
Mexican police to issue high-profile arrest warrants .
Mexican authorities are soon expected to issue arrest warrants for two people wanted for the murder of a 7-year-old girl , Fátima Cecilia Aldrighett , in Mexico City last week .
Investigators identified the suspects as a man and woman .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as she left school on Feb. 11 ; the girl ’ s body was found over the weekend .
The crime is one of two murders—the other of Ingrid Escamilla , 25—that have prompted widespread outrage and protest over femicide in Mexico .
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been criticized for his slow response to the issue .
Two coronavirus deaths from cruise ship .
Two older passengers from the quarantined cruise ship docked off the coast of Japan have died from the coronavirus .
The news came as Japan ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outbreak on the cruise ship , with one Japanese health expert describing the quarantine as “ completely chaotic.
” There have been at least 620 cases on board the Diamond Princess—the largest group of cases outside China .
Today another 600 passengers were expected to disembark , after hundreds were allowed to return to their home countries for quarantine on Wednesday .
The U.S. Democratic field .
As the field narrows , the Democratic candidates shared more combative exchanges than in previous debates on the stage in Las Vegas on Wednesday .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg came under attack over his record on stop-and-frisk policing and allegations of disrespectful behavior toward women .
Bloomberg ’ s past comments about the leaders of China and Russia could also be a weak spot as the campaign continues , FP ’ s Michael Hirsh writes .
Argentina ’ s economy .
After reviewing Argentina ’ s debt load , the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has declared it unsustainable—a signal that it will likely approve the government ’ s plans to have creditors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since taking office in December , President Alberto Fernández is seeking to renegotiate billions of dollars of debt with creditors , including a $ 56 billion loan through the IMF .
Downed jet investigation .
Iran still won ’ t hand over the black box from the Ukrainian passenger jet that its military mistakenly shot down last month .
It has so far refused to transfer the flight data recorder to another country .
On Wednesday , officials said it is damaged—further complicating the investigation .
Ukraine says it is still negotiating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s virus screening .
Indonesia hasn ’ t yet confirmed a case of the coronavirus , despite being a popular destination for Chinese tourists .
That could be good luck—or because cases just aren ’ t being diagnosed .
Though health officials deny that Indonesia ’ s detection system is weak , there are doubts that Indonesia is using effective tests , Febriana Firdaus writes in FP .
Croatia ’ s attorney general , Drazen Jelenic , has resigned after local media revealed that he was a Freemason—a member of the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who became attorney general in 2018 , stepped down under pressure from top officials , including Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic .
“ There is nothing illegal here , ” Plenkovic said .
“ However , this created an unusual circumstance which makes his position difficult.
” For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Turkey is sending reinforcements to northwestern Syria as the Syrian government's offensive pushes on, a gunman with far-right sympathies kills nine in Germany , and two passengers from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan have died of the coronavirus.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Turkey is sending reinforcements to northwestern Syria as the Syrian government’s offensive pushes on, a gunman with far-right sympathies kills nine in Germany, and two passengers from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan have died of the coronavirus.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Turkey Warns of Direct Engagement With Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Wednesday that it could be “a matter of time” before Turkey launched a military operation to push back the Syrian government offensive against rebel groups in northwestern Syria, as talks with Russia failed to resolve the crisis. Turkey has already sent additional troops to Idlib province, increasing the risk of a direct confrontation. The Syrian forces are backed by Russian air support.
There are now around 15,000 Turkish troops in northwest Syria, Reuters reports, with more convoys just over the border inside Turkey. Erdogan said Ankara intends to secure Idlib even as it continues meeting with Moscow. “We are entering the last days for the regime to stop its hostility in Idlib. We are making our final warnings,” he said. It’s yet not clear when Russia and Turkey will resume talks.
Consolidating control. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government is solidifying its grip over the country’s last rebel strongholds, particularly after taking back Aleppo province and the M5 highway linking Aleppo to Damascus. (Flights between the cities—Syria’s two largest—resumed on Wednesday.) The ongoing Turkish intervention could still slow the government campaign but it’s unlikely to stop it, as Kareem Shaheen argues in FP.
Growing crisis. Almost 1 million people, mostly women and children, have been displaced by the government offensive in Idlib, with airstrikes hitting hospitals and refugee camps. Now, many are stranded on the road—unable to cross the closed Turkish border. The displacement is overwhelming aid agencies and alarming Turkey, which says it cannot handle more refugees.
What We’re Following Today
Far-right terrorist attack near Frankfurt. At least nine people have been killed in two shootings in Hanau, Germany—near Frankfurt. The gunman fled the first scene in a car, with German special forces giving chase and a police helicopter searching over the city. Local media reported that the attacker had opened fire near two hookah bars frequented by the city’s Kurdish population. The attacker was later found dead alongside another corpse believed to be his mother.
Federal police have taken over the investigation and prosecutors see “indications of an anti-foreigner motivation” based on a letter and video containing a variety of conspiracy theories. The suspected shooter, a 43-year-old German man, published a confession, and also made a video in which he warned Americans of underground military installations where children are being abused and killed. In the one-hour video, the attacker also claimed that Germany is run by secret intelligence agencies with wide-ranging powers and speaks negatively about migrants from Arab countries and Turkey.
Mexican police to issue high-profile arrest warrants. Mexican authorities are soon expected to issue arrest warrants for two people wanted for the murder of a 7-year-old girl, Fátima Cecilia Aldrighett, in Mexico City last week. Investigators identified the suspects as a man and woman. The female suspect was last seen with Aldrighett as she left school on Feb. 11; the girl’s body was found over the weekend. The crime is one of two murders—the other of Ingrid Escamilla, 25—that have prompted widespread outrage and protest over femicide in Mexico. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been criticized for his slow response to the issue.
Two coronavirus deaths from cruise ship. Two older passengers from the quarantined cruise ship docked off the coast of Japan have died from the coronavirus. The news came as Japan’s government faced criticism for its response to the outbreak on the cruise ship, with one Japanese health expert describing the quarantine as “completely chaotic.” There have been at least 620 cases on board the Diamond Princess—the largest group of cases outside China. Today another 600 passengers were expected to disembark, after hundreds were allowed to return to their home countries for quarantine on Wednesday.
Keep an Eye On
The U.S. Democratic field. As the field narrows, the Democratic candidates shared more combative exchanges than in previous debates on the stage in Las Vegas on Wednesday. In his first appearance in a debate, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg came under attack over his record on stop-and-frisk policing and allegations of disrespectful behavior toward women.
Bloomberg’s past comments about the leaders of China and Russia could also be a weak spot as the campaign continues, FP’s Michael Hirsh writes.
Argentina’s economy. After reviewing Argentina’s debt load, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has declared it unsustainable—a signal that it will likely approve the government’s plans to have creditors lose out when the debt is renegotiated. Since taking office in December, President Alberto Fernández is seeking to renegotiate billions of dollars of debt with creditors, including a $56 billion loan through the IMF.
Downed jet investigation. Iran still won’t hand over the black box from the Ukrainian passenger jet that its military mistakenly shot down last month. It has so far refused to transfer the flight data recorder to another country. On Wednesday, officials said it is damaged—further complicating the investigation. Ukraine says it is still negotiating with Iran over the issue.
Indonesia’s virus screening. Indonesia hasn’t yet confirmed a case of the coronavirus, despite being a popular destination for Chinese tourists. That could be good luck—or because cases just aren’t being diagnosed. Though health officials deny that Indonesia’s detection system is weak, there are doubts that Indonesia is using effective tests, Febriana Firdaus writes in FP.
Odds and Ends
Croatia’s attorney general, Drazen Jelenic, has resigned after local media revealed that he was a Freemason—a member of the global, male-only secret society. Jelenic, who became attorney general in 2018, stepped down under pressure from top officials, including Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. “There is nothing illegal here,” Plenkovic said. “However, this created an unusual circumstance which makes his position difficult.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-19--Is Bloomberg Vulnerable on China and Russia?

Is Bloomberg Vulnerable on China and Russia ?
Michael Bloomberg , the new rising star in the Democratic Party , is trying to make the case to voters that he ’ s a better brand of billionaire than Donald Trump—to wit , a real one .
In contrast to the president , who has had to resort to contrivance and fakery over the years to tout what he has called his “ unbelievable business , ” Bloomberg is America ’ s eighth-richest person and could buy Trump ’ s entire net worth many times over .
The former New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ honest , too—promising to sell his business , Bloomberg LP , if elected president so “ there will be no confusion about any of his financial holdings blurring the line between public service and personal profiteering , ” his campaign advisor , Timothy O ’ Brien , told CNN on Tuesday .
But people who rise to the pinnacle of business success don ’ t just drop the habits of a lifetime , and as the founder of a global information conglomerate , Bloomberg has had a long and checkered relationship with major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In particular , in his company policies and remarks over the years , Bloomberg has evinced an occasional willingness to adapt his views to those of Beijing and Moscow—or at least to empathize with autocrats .
This happened most notoriously in 2013 , when Bloomberg LP editors spiked their own investigative stories on corruption by Chinese leader Xi Jinping ’ s family members , apparently fearing the government would forbid the company from doing business in China .
Bloomberg was later quoted as telling CNBC : “ In China , they have rules @ @ @ @ @ @ @ follow those rules .
If you don ’ t follow the rules , you ’ re not in the country.
” His comments conflicted with a fundamental code of Western journalism , which is to speak truth to power no matter the circumstance .
As columnists and pundits such as Josh Rogin of the Washington Post have noted in recent months , Bloomberg has also sought to cloak Xi ’ s brutal campaign to consolidate power—which is said to rival that of Mao Zedong—in gentle terms , telling a PBS host last September @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ dictator ” but instead “ has a constituency to answer to.
” When the host , Margaret Hoover , gave him a chance to modify his position , asking , “ He ’ s not a dictator ?
” Bloomberg insisted : “ No government survives without the will of the majority of its people .
OK ?
” Some commentators suggest Bloomberg has yet to lay out his views clearly in the role of a presidential candidate—especially when it comes to a challenge as complex as China , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partners but also its chief challenger for global influence and power .
“ Just as Trump seems to bring out the worst in people , so does Xi , ” said William Reinsch , a former senior U.S. official and China trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies .
“ The other candidates have all been competing to see who can take the toughest line , and I don ’ t expect him to be any different , but maybe he ’ ll have some angle that ’ s different.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , Bloomberg has also appeared to extend sympathy toward Russia over its aggression in Ukraine .
In 2015 , at a talk at the Aspen Institute , he asked : “ What would America do if we had a contiguous country where a lot of people in that country wanted to be Americans ?
Do Texas and California ring a bell ?
We just went in and took it.
” He added : “ I ’ m not suggesting that Putin ’ s doing a good thing or that it should be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That was 200 years ago , but we did it.
” As the Post ’ s Rogin commented , Bloomberg ’ s “ penchant for false equivalence didn ’ t stop there.
” He also compared the Russian takeover of Crimea and aggressive moves in the Black Sea to the U.S. military base at Guantánamo Bay , Cuba .
“ And you want a warm water port ?
Guantánamo Bay ring a bell ?
Someplace .
We kept that , ” Bloomberg said .
( Bloomberg LP has long had corporate ties to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business and financial news video to RBC TV . )
Bloomberg , who has a meager track record on foreign policy except for issues related to New York City and its security after 9/11 , sought to explain that relations with major powers were not simplistic zero-sum games .
“ I ’ m just pointing out that all these things are complex , ” he said .
He also tried to explain Putin ’ s fears and aggression toward Ukraine by pointing to aggressive NATO expansion up to the former Soviet Union ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But his comments and corporate outlook suggest that a man who began as a Wall Street trader and then started selling market information to players and governments around the world might take an extreme realist view of foreign relations—one in which economic interests eclipse democracy and human rights .
Though he built a global journalistic giant , his company ’ s business model has been based mainly on that valuable flow of investor intelligence provided by Bloomberg LP , not on the purveyance of Western values of free speech .
Indeed , his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a disturbing tendency to suppress free speech when it comes to his own reputation .
In a column published Tuesday in the Intercept , the journalist Leta Hong Fincher , the wife of one of the reporters on the suppressed 2013 investigative series about corruption in China , said Bloomberg ’ s company tried to silence her with a nondisclosure agreement .
And his representatives reportedly asked the Aspen Institute not to distribute footage of his 2015 remarks , which included his now controversial comments defending the “ stop and frisk ” policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from declaring that a President Bloomberg would divorce himself from his company ’ s interests , the Bloomberg campaign hasn ’ t yet addressed these questions in any detail .
With his debut on the debate stage Wednesday , he may soon have to .
Or as his Democratic presidential rival Sen. Amy Klobuchar told NBC Nightly News : “ He ’ s got to answer questions like the rest of us have been doing for an entire year .
”

Michael Bloomberg, the new rising star in the Democratic Party, is trying to make the case to voters that he’s a better brand of billionaire than Donald Trump—to wit, a real one. In contrast to the president, who has had to resort to contrivance and fakery over the years to tout what he has called his “unbelievable business,” Bloomberg is America’s eighth-richest person and could buy Trump’s entire net worth many times over.
Michael Bloomberg, the new rising star in the Democratic Party, is trying to make the case to voters that he’s a better brand of billionaire than Donald Trump—to wit, a real one. In contrast to the president, who has had to resort to contrivance and fakery over the years to tout what he has called his “unbelievable business,” Bloomberg is America’s eighth-richest person and could buy Trump’s entire net worth many times over.
The former New York City mayor insists he’s more honest, too—promising to sell his business, Bloomberg LP, if elected president so “there will be no confusion about any of his financial holdings blurring the line between public service and personal profiteering,” his campaign advisor, Timothy O’Brien, told CNN on Tuesday.
But people who rise to the pinnacle of business success don’t just drop the habits of a lifetime, and as the founder of a global information conglomerate, Bloomberg has had a long and checkered relationship with major nations such as China and Russia. In particular, in his company policies and remarks over the years, Bloomberg has evinced an occasional willingness to adapt his views to those of Beijing and Moscow—or at least to empathize with autocrats.
This happened most notoriously in 2013, when Bloomberg LP editors spiked their own investigative stories on corruption by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s family members, apparently fearing the government would forbid the company from doing business in China. Bloomberg was later quoted as telling CNBC: “In China, they have rules about what you can publish. We follow those rules. If you don’t follow the rules, you’re not in the country.” His comments conflicted with a fundamental code of Western journalism, which is to speak truth to power no matter the circumstance.
As columnists and pundits such as Josh Rogin of the Washington Post have noted in recent months, Bloomberg has also sought to cloak Xi’s brutal campaign to consolidate power—which is said to rival that of Mao Zedong—in gentle terms, telling a PBS host last September that the Chinese president wasn’t a “dictator” but instead “has a constituency to answer to.” When the host, Margaret Hoover, gave him a chance to modify his position, asking, “He’s not a dictator?” Bloomberg insisted: “No government survives without the will of the majority of its people. OK?”
Some commentators suggest Bloomberg has yet to lay out his views clearly in the role of a presidential candidate—especially when it comes to a challenge as complex as China, which is one of America’s top trading partners but also its chief challenger for global influence and power. “Just as Trump seems to bring out the worst in people, so does Xi,” said William Reinsch, a former senior U.S. official and China trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The other candidates have all been competing to see who can take the toughest line, and I don’t expect him to be any different, but maybe he’ll have some angle that’s different.”
But in other remarks over the years, Bloomberg has also appeared to extend sympathy toward Russia over its aggression in Ukraine. In 2015, at a talk at the Aspen Institute, he asked: “What would America do if we had a contiguous country where a lot of people in that country wanted to be Americans? Do Texas and California ring a bell? We just went in and took it.” He added: “I’m not suggesting that Putin’s doing a good thing or that it should be allowed. But we did this. That was 200 years ago, but we did it.” As the Post’s Rogin commented, Bloomberg’s “penchant for false equivalence didn’t stop there.” He also compared the Russian takeover of Crimea and aggressive moves in the Black Sea to the U.S. military base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. “And you want a warm water port? Guantánamo Bay ring a bell? Someplace. We kept that,” Bloomberg said. (Bloomberg LP has long had corporate ties to Russia, including as a provider of business and financial news video to RBC TV.)
Bloomberg, who has a meager track record on foreign policy except for issues related to New York City and its security after 9/11, sought to explain that relations with major powers were not simplistic zero-sum games. “I’m just pointing out that all these things are complex,” he said. He also tried to explain Putin’s fears and aggression toward Ukraine by pointing to aggressive NATO expansion up to the former Soviet Union’s borders after the Cold War.
But his comments and corporate outlook suggest that a man who began as a Wall Street trader and then started selling market information to players and governments around the world might take an extreme realist view of foreign relations—one in which economic interests eclipse democracy and human rights. Though he built a global journalistic giant, his company’s business model has been based mainly on that valuable flow of investor intelligence provided by Bloomberg LP, not on the purveyance of Western values of free speech.
Indeed, his critics say, Bloomberg has sometimes demonstrated a disturbing tendency to suppress free speech when it comes to his own reputation. In a column published Tuesday in the Intercept, the journalist Leta Hong Fincher, the wife of one of the reporters on the suppressed 2013 investigative series about corruption in China, said Bloomberg’s company tried to silence her with a nondisclosure agreement. And his representatives reportedly asked the Aspen Institute not to distribute footage of his 2015 remarks, which included his now controversial comments defending the “stop and frisk” policy toward minorities in New York.
Apart from declaring that a President Bloomberg would divorce himself from his company’s interests, the Bloomberg campaign hasn’t yet addressed these questions in any detail. With his debut on the debate stage Wednesday, he may soon have to. Or as his Democratic presidential rival Sen. Amy Klobuchar told NBC Nightly News: “He’s got to answer questions like the rest of us have been doing for an entire year.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-19--Indonesian Screening May Be Missing Virus Carriers

A tourist from mainland China who visited Bali , Indonesia , in late January tested positive for the novel coronavirus disease , formally known as COVID-19 , upon her return from China .
That has sparked a hectic round of discussion in an Indonesian media obsessed with the virus—was the patient sick before arrival ?
It ’ s an unsurprising obsession in a country where the virus is the dog that didn ’ t bark in the nighttime .
Indonesia has no cases yet—but many Indonesians are convinced it ’ s only a matter of time and that undetected virus-carriers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ World Health Organization announced a global emergency , Indonesians snatched up respirator face masks from the supermarkets , tripling prices .
Indonesia ’ s statistics bureau noted that 1.2 million tourists from mainland China traveled to Bali—which has a direct flight from Wuhan—the epicenter of the outbreak , in 2019 alone .
As of Monday , most of Southeast Asia had detected some cases of the coronavirus—75 in Singapore , 19 in Malaysia , 34 in Thailand .
Meanwhile , Indonesia has observed 64 samples collected from the throat swab of suspected patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but there ’ s not a single confirmed case .
But has Indonesia been preternaturally lucky ?
Or is its health service simply missing cases ?
The head of the Health Crisis Center of the Ministry of Health , Achmad Yurianto , denies that Indonesia ’ s detection system is weak .
He told Foreign Policy that Indonesian officials have applied multiple layers of detection and said that they meet the international standard .
The current system applies two checks : temperature checks at arrival gates , followed by self-reporting from passengers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ control cards ” and told to report to a hospital if they feel unwell .
If a potential carrier reports any symptoms , the doctor contacts the national health care system and takes a sample .
It ’ s then sent to laboratories designated by the Ministry of Health and will produce a result within about two days .
Yurianto added that Indonesia has been working with other countries to prevent sick passengers from traveling inside and outside the country .
Vivi Setyawati , the head of the research and development center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guaranteed that WHO has certified the laboratory and the staff .
The team in Jakarta who receive the specimens use a double test—polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing—to confirm the case .
The system has been applied since the Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus outbreak in 2011 .
But the Sydney Morning Herald recently revealed that Indonesia had no “ specific detection kit ” for DNA sequencing to confirm the new type of coronavirus .
Amin Soebandrio , a fellow at the Jakarta-based Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology , argued that even without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ identification could be made .
Indonesia eventually received the primer on Feb. 4 , allowing for an easier detection process .
The claim itself has already sparked a scientific debate .
Marc Lipsitch , the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University , who has just published research on the new coronavirus , told Foreign Policy that tests conducted without the primer would be lacking .
Soetjipto , an expert in biochemistry and biomolecular studies from Airlangga University who , like many Indonesians , only goes by one name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could use a common coronavirus primer beforehand , and the results would be close , but not 100 percent accurate .
Lipsitch ’ s modeling at Harvard , meanwhile , argues that cases are very likely to have gone undetected in Indonesia and Cambodia .
“ They may go undetected for some weeks , as the individuals may not seek care or may not be suspected and tested for coronavirus , ” he said .
Indonesia should have confirmed at least five cases by now .
Another obvious hole in the system , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ checks alone have proved an unreliable detector for the coronavirus , which has an incubation period of potentially as long as 24 days .
Self-reporting also often fails to catch cases , especially in carriers with weaker symptoms .
The researchers recommended that outbreak surveillance and control capacity should be rapidly strengthened in both countries .
The Indonesian government slammed the Harvard modeling , with Minister of Health Terawan Agus Putranto calling it “ insulting.
” But Lipsitch says his data holds up , given the experiences of other countries .
The evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wuhan traveled to Indonesia between December 2018 and November 2019 , making it one of the top 10 destinations for Wuhan travelers .
Lipsitch also emphasized that many countries , not only Indonesia , probably face the same issue of detection at the border .
“ It ’ s not 100 percent effective , even with excellent levels of testing , ” he said .
As questions remain unanswered , Indonesians have taken to social media for fierce arguments .
Some of them argue the virus can not survive Indonesia ’ s tropical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ scientific ] evidence yet , ” Soetjipto from Airlangga University clarified .
John Nicholls , a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and an expert on coronaviruses , has commented on the possibility of higher temperature variables .
Nicholls emphasized that the SARS outbreak managed to be stopped in 2003 with good hygiene practices as well as seasonal high temperature and humidity .
Indonesia is in a poor position if the virus does strike .
Although the country has set aside 100 hospitals for potential cases , Indonesia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health care system would leave it struggling to cope with an outbreak .
At one hospital checked by Foreign Policy , only four out of 28 rooms were properly equipped with negative pressure systems required for proper isolation .
The nation ’ s scientific budgets are also small—the research budget was only 0.3 percent of Indonesia ’ s GDP in 2018 , one of the lowest in Asia .
Meanwhile , the Indonesian government seems more determined to fight critics than the virus – and some officials have been spreading conspiracy theories online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Indonesian National Disaster Management Authority , retweeted fake claims that the virus is a biological weapon , but later deleted them after criticism .

A tourist from mainland China who visited Bali, Indonesia, in late January tested positive for the novel coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19, upon her return from China. That has sparked a hectic round of discussion in an Indonesian media obsessed with the virus—was the patient sick before arrival?
A tourist from mainland China who visited Bali, Indonesia, in late January tested positive for the novel coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19, upon her return from China. That has sparked a hectic round of discussion in an Indonesian media obsessed with the virus—was the patient sick before arrival?
It’s an unsurprising obsession in a country where the virus is the dog that didn’t bark in the nighttime. Indonesia has no cases yet—but many Indonesians are convinced it’s only a matter of time and that undetected virus-carriers are walking among them.
After the World Health Organization announced a global emergency, Indonesians snatched up respirator face masks from the supermarkets, tripling prices. Indonesia’s statistics bureau noted that 1.2 million tourists from mainland China traveled to Bali—which has a direct flight from Wuhan—the epicenter of the outbreak, in 2019 alone.
As of Monday, most of Southeast Asia had detected some cases of the coronavirus—75 in Singapore, 19 in Malaysia, 34 in Thailand. Meanwhile, Indonesia has observed 64 samples collected from the throat swab of suspected patients in 30 hospitals in 30 provinces, but there’s not a single confirmed case.
But has Indonesia been preternaturally lucky? Or is its health service simply missing cases?
The head of the Health Crisis Center of the Ministry of Health, Achmad Yurianto, denies that Indonesia’s detection system is weak. He told Foreign Policy that Indonesian officials have applied multiple layers of detection and said that they meet the international standard.
The current system applies two checks: temperature checks at arrival gates, followed by self-reporting from passengers, who are given what are known as “control cards” and told to report to a hospital if they feel unwell. If a potential carrier reports any symptoms, the doctor contacts the national health care system and takes a sample. It’s then sent to laboratories designated by the Ministry of Health and will produce a result within about two days.
Yurianto added that Indonesia has been working with other countries to prevent sick passengers from traveling inside and outside the country. Vivi Setyawati, the head of the research and development center at the Ministry of Health, has guaranteed that WHO has certified the laboratory and the staff.
The team in Jakarta who receive the specimens use a double test—polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing—to confirm the case. The system has been applied since the Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus outbreak in 2011.
But the Sydney Morning Herald recently revealed that Indonesia had no “specific detection kit” for DNA sequencing to confirm the new type of coronavirus. Amin Soebandrio, a fellow at the Jakarta-based Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology, argued that even without the specific sequencing primer necessary, the identification could be made. Indonesia eventually received the primer on Feb. 4, allowing for an easier detection process.
The claim itself has already sparked a scientific debate. Marc Lipsitch, the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University, who has just published research on the new coronavirus, told Foreign Policy that tests conducted without the primer would be lacking.
Soetjipto, an expert in biochemistry and biomolecular studies from Airlangga University who, like many Indonesians, only goes by one name, agreed, adding that the team could use a common coronavirus primer beforehand, and the results would be close, but not 100 percent accurate.
Lipsitch’s modeling at Harvard, meanwhile, argues that cases are very likely to have gone undetected in Indonesia and Cambodia. “They may go undetected for some weeks, as the individuals may not seek care or may not be suspected and tested for coronavirus,” he said.
Indonesia should have confirmed at least five cases by now. Another obvious hole in the system, acknowledged by Yurianto, is that temperature checks alone have proved an unreliable detector for the coronavirus, which has an incubation period of potentially as long as 24 days. Self-reporting also often fails to catch cases, especially in carriers with weaker symptoms.
The researchers recommended that outbreak surveillance and control capacity should be rapidly strengthened in both countries.
The Indonesian government slammed the Harvard modeling, with Minister of Health Terawan Agus Putranto calling it “insulting.” But Lipsitch says his data holds up, given the experiences of other countries. The evidence shows that at least 98,700 passengers from Wuhan traveled to Indonesia between December 2018 and November 2019, making it one of the top 10 destinations for Wuhan travelers.
Lipsitch also emphasized that many countries, not only Indonesia, probably face the same issue of detection at the border. “It’s not 100 percent effective, even with excellent levels of testing,” he said.
As questions remain unanswered, Indonesians have taken to social media for fierce arguments. Some of them argue the virus cannot survive Indonesia’s tropical temperatures. “But there is no [scientific] evidence yet,” Soetjipto from Airlangga University clarified.
John Nicholls, a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and an expert on coronaviruses, has commented on the possibility of higher temperature variables. Nicholls emphasized that the SARS outbreak managed to be stopped in 2003 with good hygiene practices as well as seasonal high temperature and humidity.
Indonesia is in a poor position if the virus does strike. Although the country has set aside 100 hospitals for potential cases, Indonesia’s massive size and relatively underequipped health care system would leave it struggling to cope with an outbreak. At one hospital checked by Foreign Policy, only four out of 28 rooms were properly equipped with negative pressure systems required for proper isolation. The nation’s scientific budgets are also small—the research budget was only 0.3 percent of Indonesia’s GDP in 2018, one of the lowest in Asia.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian government seems more determined to fight critics than the virus – and some officials have been spreading conspiracy theories online. Agus Wibowo, the spokesperson for the Indonesian National Disaster Management Authority, retweeted fake claims that the virus is a biological weapon, but later deleted them after criticism.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-19--China’s Biosecurity State in Xinjiang Is Powered by Western Tech

China ’ s Biosecurity State in Xinjiang Is Powered by Western Tech In 2015 , the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Public Security Bureau announced it planned to purchase equipment from the U.S.-based biotechnology company Promega for the purpose of analyzing DNA and adding it to a national database , according to Chinese government procurement documents .
The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps , colloquially known as the Bingtuan , is a quasi-colonial enterprise under the dual leadership of the central government and the government of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region .
With over 2.7 million members , the Bingtuan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that operates many of the region ’ s largest agricultural and resource extraction industries that can also be called upon to support the military or police in an emergency .
In theory subordinate to the local government , in practice the Bingtuan , originally founded under the auspices of the Chinese military , maintains completely independent administrative and judicial institutions .
As part of its mission , the Bingtuan is tasked with increasing the regional population of China ’ s national ethnic majority Han in relation to local ethnicities like the Uighurs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ guard [ China ’ s ] border areas.
” Previous purchases of DNA analysis equipment by public security authorities in Xinjiang have raised outcry in recent years because human rights experts worry it could be employed in the surveillance and persecution of Uighurs .
Since 2017 , authorities throughout the region have interned over one million Uighur and other ethnic minority Muslims in what they euphemistically refer to as “ vocational training centers.
” Various government entities manage individual internment camps , depending on the facility in question .
Regional government procurement documents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the camps .
Previous purchases of DNA analysis equipment by public security authorities in Xinjiang have raised outcry in recent years because human rights experts worry it could be employed in the surveillance and persecution of Uighurs .
Meanwhile , Chinese authorities , led by Xinjiang ’ s Office of Population Service and Management and Real-Name Registration Work Leadership Committee , are collecting and analyzing the DNA of Uighurs and other ethnic minorities throughout the region .
Though the ultimate aim of this collection is not yet clear , human rights groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be employed to track down Uighurs who do not cooperate with the government .
For example , the DNA could be used to predict an individual ’ s facial features , images of which the government could compile in “ mass surveillance and facial recognition systems that it is building .
” “ The human rights standard on a lot of these issues is about authorities being able to explain why this approach is necessary , that it ’ s proportional , that it has a specific use , that people have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sophie Richardson , the China director at Human Rights Watch .
“ Few of these conditions would have held in Xinjiang in 2015.
” The Chinese government ’ s intrusive surveillance of its population , including the collection of biometric data , is not confined solely to Xinjiang .
Throughout the country , police have taken individuals ’ DNA samples by offering “ free health checks ” or by simply taking saliva samples from schoolchildren .
Chinese public security officials aim to have 100 million DNA records in their national database before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the anthropologist Darren Byler , an expert on recent Chinese government policies toward Uighurs , has argued that the state ’ s biometric data system is particularly threatening to Uighurs : “ Since Uyghurs have no legal representation and virtually no institutional support , the Chinese state is free to experiment on them as they wish .
The resonance between the eugenics movement that was widespread in America and Western Europe in the 1940s and the contemporary Chinese weaponization of biomedicine is not lost on them .
This is why there is widespread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be used to selectively harvest the organs of thousands of Uyghurs that have disappeared .
.
.
[ into ] the mass detention system.
” Another American company , the Massachusetts-based Thermo Fisher Scientific , came under public criticism as early as 2017 for its sales of genetic sequencers to police in Xinjiang .
Both the U.S. Congress and Human Rights Watch raised concerns about human rights and privacy violations as a result of the region ’ s DNA collection campaign—and the extent to which Thermo Fisher ’ s technology aided these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ halted its sales in the region , describing the suspension as in line with its ethics code , but did not say whether it would continue to sell its products elsewhere in China .
The Bingtuan Public Security Bureau ’ s 2015 planned purchase , arranged through Promega ’ s authorized Xinjiang-based distributor , Hangzhou Xinyue Biotechnology Co. , Ltd. , was for Promega ’ s PowerPlex 21 system .
Documents show that public security officials sought this specific equipment to create records from trace DNA—minimal amounts of DNA people leave behind as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quality to be entered into a national DNA database .
Because the PowerPlex 21 was the only equipment advanced enough for this work , public security officials were issuing a single-source procurement notice , meaning that they could skip a public bidding process .
Unless the notice was contested within a seven-day period , officials could buy the listed equipment .
Promega did not provide any substantive responses to a list of questions from ChinaFile , despite multiple calls and emails .
Foreign Policy also attempted to contact the firm but received no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ documents , from just a few months earlier in the same year , indicates the Bingtuan Public Security Bureau planned to work with the Chinese Ministry of Public Security ’ s Physical Evidence Evaluation Center on a “ DNA Database Data Construction Project.
” China ’ s Ministry of Public Security already has large DNA databases , similar to the ones maintained by the FBI in the United States for criminal and missing persons investigations .
Adding DNA collected from ordinary Uighur citizens raises the specter of racial profiling of a group already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ article in a journal affiliated with the Ministry of Public Security argued in 2015 that larger and higher-quality DNA databases , combined with data-mining techniques , could assist authorities with “ prediction ” of behavior and issuing “ early warnings for high-risk populations.
” To be sure , purchasing equipment such as Promega ’ s PowerPlex 21 does not itself reveal how the purchaser might use it , said Lawrence Kobilinsky , an expert on forensic DNA analysis at John Jay College of Criminal Justice .
DNA analysis equipment can be used for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including criminal , diagnostic , therapeutic , and genealogical work , among other uses .
At the same time , he said , “ no one can stop [ the user ] from using it for ethnic identification purposes .
.
.
Anything can be abused .
Great tools can be used for bad purposes.
” The Promega website hosts the abstracts of two academic papers that discuss using genetic sequencing to distinguish different ethnic minority populations in China , including Uighurs .
According to the full version of one of these papers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ products made by Thermo Fisher Scientific , was used in the course of the research .
The research looked at 211 samples of Uighur individuals ’ DNA collected in Korla , Xinjiang , with the subjects ’ informed consent .
Experts have previously expressed concern that , given the ever-present threat of internment , Uighurs in China can not give true consent , and the science publishers Springer Nature and Wiley are conducting ethical reviews of papers they have published “ in which scientists backed by China ’ s government used DNA or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country , such as the predominantly Muslim Uyghur population , ” according to Nature .
In 2016 , the Bingtuan ’ s Public Security Bureau again contracted with Hangzhou Xinyue Biotechnology , the distributor involved in the 2015 Promega sale , to purchase DNA testing equipment .
It is not clear if Promega products were part of that sale .
Promega ’ s sale of equipment to authorities in Xinjiang has not previously been reported .
According to additional government procurement documents , Public Security Bureaus throughout China have purchased Promega products @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recently as 2019 .
Said Human Rights Watch ’ s Richardson , “ One of the first questions I would ask this company is , ‘ What is their due diligence strategy to ensure their equipment is not used in human rights violations ?
’ That remains the core question that Thermo Fisher still has not answered in all our discussions with them.
” Mareike Ohlberg ’ s views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of her employer .

In 2015, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Public Security Bureau announced it planned to purchase equipment from the U.S.-based biotechnology company Promega for the purpose of analyzing DNA and adding it to a national database, according to Chinese government procurement documents .
In 2015, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Public Security Bureau announced it planned to purchase equipment from the U.S.-based biotechnology company Promega for the purpose of analyzing DNA and adding it to a national database, according to Chinese government procurement documents.
The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, colloquially known as the Bingtuan, is a quasi-colonial enterprise under the dual leadership of the central government and the government of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. With over 2.7 million members, the Bingtuan is “a vast farming militia” that operates many of the region’s largest agricultural and resource extraction industries that can also be called upon to support the military or police in an emergency. In theory subordinate to the local government, in practice the Bingtuan, originally founded under the auspices of the Chinese military, maintains completely independent administrative and judicial institutions. As part of its mission, the Bingtuan is tasked with increasing the regional population of China’s national ethnic majority Han in relation to local ethnicities like the Uighurs. It also works to “cultivate and guard [China’s] border areas.”
Previous purchases of DNA analysis equipment by public security authorities in Xinjiang have raised outcry in recent years because human rights experts worry it could be employed in the surveillance and persecution of Uighurs. Since 2017, authorities throughout the region have interned over one million Uighur and other ethnic minority Muslims in what they euphemistically refer to as “vocational training centers.” Various government entities manage individual internment camps, depending on the facility in question. Regional government procurement documents show that the Bingtuan itself operates some of the camps.
Previous purchases of DNA analysis equipment by public security authorities in Xinjiang have raised outcry in recent years because human rights experts worry it could be employed in the surveillance and persecution of Uighurs.
Meanwhile, Chinese authorities, led by Xinjiang’s Office of Population Service and Management and Real-Name Registration Work Leadership Committee, are collecting and analyzing the DNA of Uighurs and other ethnic minorities throughout the region. Though the ultimate aim of this collection is not yet clear, human rights groups have expressed alarm that such data could be employed to track down Uighurs who do not cooperate with the government. For example, the DNA could be used to predict an individual’s facial features, images of which the government could compile in “mass surveillance and facial recognition systems that it is building.”
“The human rights standard on a lot of these issues is about authorities being able to explain why this approach is necessary, that it’s proportional, that it has a specific use, that people have the ability to opt out,” said Sophie Richardson, the China director at Human Rights Watch. “Few of these conditions would have held in Xinjiang in 2015.”
The Chinese government’s intrusive surveillance of its population, including the collection of biometric data, is not confined solely to Xinjiang. Throughout the country, police have taken individuals’ DNA samples by offering “free health checks” or by simply taking saliva samples from schoolchildren. Chinese public security officials aim to have 100 million DNA records in their national database before the end of this year. However, the anthropologist Darren Byler, an expert on recent Chinese government policies toward Uighurs, has argued that the state’s biometric data system is particularly threatening to Uighurs: “Since Uyghurs have no legal representation and virtually no institutional support, the Chinese state is free to experiment on them as they wish. The resonance between the eugenics movement that was widespread in America and Western Europe in the 1940s and the contemporary Chinese weaponization of biomedicine is not lost on them. This is why there is widespread fear among Uyghurs that the biometric data may be used to selectively harvest the organs of thousands of Uyghurs that have disappeared . . . [into] the mass detention system.”
Another American company, the Massachusetts-based Thermo Fisher Scientific, came under public criticism as early as 2017 for its sales of genetic sequencers to police in Xinjiang. Both the U.S. Congress and Human Rights Watch raised concerns about human rights and privacy violations as a result of the region’s DNA collection campaign—and the extent to which Thermo Fisher’s technology aided these violations. In 2019, Thermo Fisher halted its sales in the region, describing the suspension as in line with its ethics code, but did not say whether it would continue to sell its products elsewhere in China.
FP Analytics Special Report Mining the Future: How China is set to dominate the next Industrial Revolution. Read Now
The Bingtuan Public Security Bureau’s 2015 planned purchase, arranged through Promega’s authorized Xinjiang-based distributor, Hangzhou Xinyue Biotechnology Co., Ltd., was for Promega’s PowerPlex 21 system. Documents show that public security officials sought this specific equipment to create records from trace DNA—minimal amounts of DNA people leave behind as they touch surfaces—that were of high enough quality to be entered into a national DNA database. Because the PowerPlex 21 was the only equipment advanced enough for this work, public security officials were issuing a single-source procurement notice, meaning that they could skip a public bidding process. Unless the notice was contested within a seven-day period, officials could buy the listed equipment.
Promega did not provide any substantive responses to a list of questions from ChinaFile, despite multiple calls and emails. Foreign Policy also attempted to contact the firm but received no response.
A separate set of procurement documents, from just a few months earlier in the same year, indicates the Bingtuan Public Security Bureau planned to work with the Chinese Ministry of Public Security’s Physical Evidence Evaluation Center on a “DNA Database Data Construction Project.” China’s Ministry of Public Security already has large DNA databases, similar to the ones maintained by the FBI in the United States for criminal and missing persons investigations. Adding DNA collected from ordinary Uighur citizens raises the specter of racial profiling of a group already subjected to discrimination and persecution. An article in a journal affiliated with the Ministry of Public Security argued in 2015 that larger and higher-quality DNA databases, combined with data-mining techniques, could assist authorities with “prediction” of behavior and issuing “early warnings for high-risk populations.”
To be sure, purchasing equipment such as Promega’s PowerPlex 21 does not itself reveal how the purchaser might use it, said Lawrence Kobilinsky, an expert on forensic DNA analysis at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. DNA analysis equipment can be used for many different purposes, he said, including criminal, diagnostic, therapeutic, and genealogical work, among other uses. At the same time, he said, “no one can stop [the user] from using it for ethnic identification purposes. . . Anything can be abused. Great tools can be used for bad purposes.”
The Promega website hosts the abstracts of two academic papers that discuss using genetic sequencing to distinguish different ethnic minority populations in China, including Uighurs. According to the full version of one of these papers, Promega equipment, in addition to products made by Thermo Fisher Scientific, was used in the course of the research. The research looked at 211 samples of Uighur individuals’ DNA collected in Korla, Xinjiang, with the subjects’ informed consent. Experts have previously expressed concern that, given the ever-present threat of internment, Uighurs in China cannot give true consent, and the science publishers Springer Nature and Wiley are conducting ethical reviews of papers they have published “in which scientists backed by China’s government used DNA or facial-recognition technology to study minority groups in the country, such as the predominantly Muslim Uyghur population,” according to Nature.
In 2016, the Bingtuan’s Public Security Bureau again contracted with Hangzhou Xinyue Biotechnology, the distributor involved in the 2015 Promega sale, to purchase DNA testing equipment. It is not clear if Promega products were part of that sale.
Promega’s sale of equipment to authorities in Xinjiang has not previously been reported. According to additional government procurement documents, Public Security Bureaus throughout China have purchased Promega products over the last decade, including as recently as 2019. Said Human Rights Watch’s Richardson, “One of the first questions I would ask this company is, ‘What is their due diligence strategy to ensure their equipment is not used in human rights violations?’ That remains the core question that Thermo Fisher still has not answered in all our discussions with them.”
Mareike Ohlberg’s views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of her employer.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-19--Are China’s Coronavirus Figures Reliable?

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s weekly China Brief .
The highlights this week : Chinese officials are reporting a consistent decline in new coronavirus cases , the United States designates Chinese state-run media outlets as Beijing operatives , and how Chinese businesses are coping with the monthlong outbreak .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
In China , the death toll from the coronavirus has now topped 2,000 , with over 70,000 cases confirmed .
But if you follow Chinese state media , the tone is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s war against the virus , led by President Xi Jinping , is coming !
The official figures seem to bear this out : New infections outside of Hubei province , the virus epicenter , have dropped for more than 10 days straight , and the number of new cases inside Hubei has slowed to under 2,000 per day .
Most of Hubei remains under lockdown , with residents unable to leave their homes without special permission .
Travel restrictions of varying severity have been imposed across China , from monitored movement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value , the government ’ s containment strategy appears to be working .
But that raises the question : How reliable are China ’ s official numbers ?
Party politics .
One suspicious element is how consistent the drop in new virus cases has been .
While there was a jump in numbers last Thursday , it was the result of changes in testing standards in Hubei—moving nearly 15,000 cases from “ suspected ” to “ confirmed.
” The announcement came as Hubei ’ s top officials were removed from their jobs—and Xi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the former mayor of Shanghai , installed as the province ’ s party boss .
As often happens , it seems the new boss wanted to blame the bad news on the old one .
Meanwhile , the central government is pushing for reopening businesses , but there is a conflict emerging .
Local officials don ’ t want to be scapegoated if an outbreak emerges in their domain , and their fear is outweighing the economic damage of the virus .
But there are reports from Zhejiang and Guangdong of lockdowns being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that allows people to leave the house in areas previously under heavy restrictions .
Downward trend .
The straight decline in new cases of the virus could be good news , or it could be statistical manipulation .
Outside of Hubei , diagnostic test kits are in short supply , and other provinces haven ’ t switched to using the symptomatic diagnosis now accepted in Hubei .
The kits are only being used to test people who came from Hubei and not for cases of transmission , so it ’ s unsurprising the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that dozens of other hospital patients are being quarantined and treated but not officially diagnosed .
U.S.-China media wars .
The United States made a strong move against China yesterday , reclassifying five state-run media outlets—Xinhua News Agency , the China Global Television Network , China Daily , China Radio , and People ’ s Daily—as operatives of Beijing .
The designation makes their operations inside the United States subject to tighter control .
Chinese reporters at home and abroad have always been tasked with producing neican—internal reports for the party—and effectively used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now , the outlets ’ reporters could be subject to the same travel restrictions the United States has imposed on Chinese diplomats .
In China , Western reporters already face a system of monitoring and control that limits their visas , sees them harassed by police , and prevents them from living outside certain cities .
The U.S. move prompted immediate retaliation from Beijing , which expelled three Wall Street Journal reporters on Wednesday .
( The excuse was an opinion headline that described China as “ the real sick man of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state-backed outrage from the Chinese public . )
Notably , all of the expelled reporters were of Chinese descent , part of a pattern of China treating nonwhite foreign reporters—and especially those with Chinese ancestry—with more suspicion .
Missing coronavirus cases ?
While most of China ’ s southern and eastern neighbors have reported coronavirus cases , the countries along its northern border such as Russia , Mongolia , and Kazakhstan have seen minimal numbers , with Russia only just reporting its first two cases .
The pattern of cases may just represent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Year holiday at the start of the outbreak : Migrant workers would be returning to China from the north , while middle-class vacationers headed south .
What about North Korea ?
Meanwhile , North Korea says it doesn ’ t have any coronavirus cases , but the country has gone under total lockdown and cut off all transport ties to the outside world .
North Korean state media , meanwhile , has broadcasted information about hygiene methods and protective masks .
If the nation was suffering an outbreak , would we know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been devastated by the coronavirus outbreak , despite the hardworking delivery people doing their best to keep the sector alive .
The loss of Lunar New Year business and the closure of public spaces has devastated an industry already teetering on the edge .
In Beijing , which is not fully locked down , only 13 percent of restaurants have stayed open throughout the outbreak .
Jim Boyce , a longtime food and wine correspondent , has written about how badly the global wine trade will be hit .
Back to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people to return to work , but between travel restrictions and local lockdowns it is proving effectively impossible .
In China ’ s north , factory owners say they are still paying above-average wages to get staff and that the vast majority of workers still haven ’ t returned to the job .
Companies that can are allowing remote work .
Chinese schools , which look unlikely to reopen before April , have switched to online classes .
Pension burden .
With business hurting from both the shutdowns and the government-mandated requirement to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced that companies won ’ t have to pay some pension contributions and insurance fees to state-run funds for several months .
That ’ s a smart move , but it raises the threat of the oncoming pension crisis .
The World Unpacked , by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace This is a shameless self-endorsement for my own appearance on Carnegie ’ s foreign-policy podcast this week , discussing the coronavirus at length .
But it ’ s also a general recommendation for the podcast : It ’ s an excellent and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues of the day .
On China issues , see the episode with Carnegie expert Evan Feigenbaum and a particularly timely interview with former Wall Street Journal Beijing bureau chief Charles Hutzler .
The first post-World War II pandemic—the result of the mixing of avian and human influenza strains—was first detected in Singapore in 1957 but may have originated in China .
While less lethal than the 1918 Spanish flu , the “ Asian flu ” pandemic killed perhaps 1 million to 2 million people worldwide .
A decade later , it mutated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Again , it was first detected in the British colony but possibly originated in China .
Maoist China had high levels of deforestation and food insecurity , which caused people to eat previously untouched species , as well as a dire lack of medical resources .
It was perhaps only the country ’ s isolation and limited freedom of movement that prevented outbreaks on the scale of SARS in 2003 or the 2020 coronavirus outbreak .
It ’ s also possible that such outbreaks did occur and went unnoticed among the deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: Chinese officials are reporting a consistent decline in new coronavirus cases , the United States designates Chinese state-run media outlets as Beijing operatives, and how Chinese businesses are coping with the monthlong outbreak.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: Chinese officials are reporting a consistent decline in new coronavirus cases, the United States designates Chinese state-run media outlets as Beijing operatives, and how Chinese businesses are coping with the monthlong outbreak.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
China Reports Decline in Virus Cases
In China, the death toll from the coronavirus has now topped 2,000, with over 70,000 cases confirmed. But if you follow Chinese state media, the tone is increasingly optimistic: Victory in the people’s war against the virus, led by President Xi Jinping, is coming! The official figures seem to bear this out: New infections outside of Hubei province, the virus epicenter, have dropped for more than 10 days straight, and the number of new cases inside Hubei has slowed to under 2,000 per day.
Most of Hubei remains under lockdown, with residents unable to leave their homes without special permission. Travel restrictions of varying severity have been imposed across China, from monitored movement to total quarantine. Taken at face value, the government’s containment strategy appears to be working. But that raises the question: How reliable are China’s official numbers?
Party politics. One suspicious element is how consistent the drop in new virus cases has been. While there was a jump in numbers last Thursday, it was the result of changes in testing standards in Hubei—moving nearly 15,000 cases from “suspected” to “confirmed.” The announcement came as Hubei’s top officials were removed from their jobs—and Xi’s close ally Ying Yong, the former mayor of Shanghai, installed as the province’s party boss. As often happens, it seems the new boss wanted to blame the bad news on the old one.
Meanwhile, the central government is pushing for reopening businesses, but there is a conflict emerging. Local officials don’t want to be scapegoated if an outbreak emerges in their domain, and their fear is outweighing the economic damage of the virus. But there are reports from Zhejiang and Guangdong of lockdowns being lifted, with a monitored surveillance system that allows people to leave the house in areas previously under heavy restrictions.
Downward trend. The straight decline in new cases of the virus could be good news, or it could be statistical manipulation. Outside of Hubei, diagnostic test kits are in short supply, and other provinces haven’t switched to using the symptomatic diagnosis now accepted in Hubei. The kits are only being used to test people who came from Hubei and not for cases of transmission, so it’s unsurprising the numbers are dropping. Chinese doctors report that dozens of other hospital patients are being quarantined and treated but not officially diagnosed.
What We’re Following
U.S.-China media wars. The United States made a strong move against China yesterday, reclassifying five state-run media outlets—Xinhua News Agency, the China Global Television Network, China Daily, China Radio, and People’s Daily—as operatives of Beijing. The designation makes their operations inside the United States subject to tighter control. Chinese reporters at home and abroad have always been tasked with producing neican—internal reports for the party—and effectively used for espionage on an ad hoc basis.
Now, the outlets’ reporters could be subject to the same travel restrictions the United States has imposed on Chinese diplomats. In China, Western reporters already face a system of monitoring and control that limits their visas, sees them harassed by police, and prevents them from living outside certain cities.
The U.S. move prompted immediate retaliation from Beijing, which expelled three Wall Street Journal reporters on Wednesday. (The excuse was an opinion headline that described China as “the real sick man of Asia,” a phrase that prompted state-backed outrage from the Chinese public.) Notably, all of the expelled reporters were of Chinese descent, part of a pattern of China treating nonwhite foreign reporters—and especially those with Chinese ancestry—with more suspicion.
Missing coronavirus cases? While most of China’s southern and eastern neighbors have reported coronavirus cases, the countries along its northern border such as Russia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan have seen minimal numbers, with Russia only just reporting its first two cases. The pattern of cases may just represent the direction of travel before the Lunar New Year holiday at the start of the outbreak: Migrant workers would be returning to China from the north, while middle-class vacationers headed south.
What about North Korea? Meanwhile, North Korea says it doesn’t have any coronavirus cases, but the country has gone under total lockdown and cut off all transport ties to the outside world. North Korean state media, meanwhile, has broadcasted information about hygiene methods and protective masks. If the nation was suffering an outbreak, would we know?
Tech and Business
Restaurant crisis. The restaurant business has been devastated by the coronavirus outbreak, despite the hardworking delivery people doing their best to keep the sector alive. The loss of Lunar New Year business and the closure of public spaces has devastated an industry already teetering on the edge. In Beijing, which is not fully locked down, only 13 percent of restaurants have stayed open throughout the outbreak. Jim Boyce, a longtime food and wine correspondent, has written about how badly the global wine trade will be hit.
Back to work? The government is trying to encourage people to return to work, but between travel restrictions and local lockdowns it is proving effectively impossible. In China’s north, factory owners say they are still paying above-average wages to get staff and that the vast majority of workers still haven’t returned to the job. Companies that can are allowing remote work. Chinese schools, which look unlikely to reopen before April, have switched to online classes.
Pension burden. With business hurting from both the shutdowns and the government-mandated requirement to keep paying employees, Chinese authorities have announced that companies won’t have to pay some pension contributions and insurance fees to state-run funds for several months. That’s a smart move, but it raises the threat of the oncoming pension crisis.
What We’re Listening To
The World Unpacked, by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
This is a shameless self-endorsement for my own appearance on Carnegie’s foreign-policy podcast this week, discussing the coronavirus at length. But it’s also a general recommendation for the podcast: It’s an excellent and smart weekly conversation with experts on the issues of the day.
On China issues, see the episode with Carnegie expert Evan Feigenbaum and a particularly timely interview with former Wall Street Journal Beijing bureau chief Charles Hutzler.
A Moment in History
The Asian flu, 1957 and 1968
The first post-World War II pandemic—the result of the mixing of avian and human influenza strains—was first detected in Singapore in 1957 but may have originated in China. While less lethal than the 1918 Spanish flu, the “Asian flu” pandemic killed perhaps 1 million to 2 million people worldwide. A decade later, it mutated into the “Hong Kong” flu: Again, it was first detected in the British colony but possibly originated in China.
Maoist China had high levels of deforestation and food insecurity, which caused people to eat previously untouched species, as well as a dire lack of medical resources. It was perhaps only the country’s isolation and limited freedom of movement that prevented outbreaks on the scale of SARS in 2003 or the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. It’s also possible that such outbreaks did occur and went unnoticed among the deaths of the era.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.