foreignpolicy--2020-01-27--Will Bolton’s Bombshell Affect the Impeachment Trial?

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s Security Brief .
What ’ s on tap today : New revelations from John Bolton ’ s book rock Trump ’ s impeachment trial , conflicting reports emerge of a U.S. military plane crash in Afghanistan , and France pushes the United States to keep troops in West Africa .
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Monday , please sign up here .
As U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s defense team lays out their arguments in the next phase of his impeachment trial in the Senate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by former National Security Advisor John Bolton in his forthcoming book .
Bolton writes that Trump told him last August that he wanted to keep withholding nearly $ 400 million of military aid to Ukraine until it agreed to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden , one of Trump ’ s potential presidential Democratic rivals .
The account in Bolton ’ s book , first reported by the New York Times , appears to contradict the White House ’ s assertions that the hold on aid to Ukraine was separate from Trump pushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Trump ’ s defense .
The eleventh hour bombshell could increase pressure on enough Senate Republicans to vote to allow witnesses in the trial , including Bolton—a measure Democrats have pushed for from the outset .
Trump vehemently denies the claims in Bolton ’ s book .
Esper ’ s role .
The New York Times report on Bolton ’ s book includes a key detail that may implicate Defense Secretary Mark Esper , who has managed to remain largely out of the spotlight on the Ukraine issue .
Esper reportedly joined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in urging the president to release the military aid after lower-level Ukrainian officials complained about the holdup .
Trump rebuffed them .
Esper has remained largely untouched by the Ukraine scandal because he was confirmed as defense secretary on July 23 , 2019 , two months after the Pentagon approved the aid .
But the new report raises questions about how much the defense secretary knew—and whether he could have done more to stop it .
Pompeo heads to Ukraine .
Meanwhile , Pompeo finds himself in hot water on the eve of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interview with NPR .
“ Do you think Americans care about Ukraine ?
” he reportedly said in an expletive-filled outburst after the interview , according to NPR ’ s Mary Louise Kelly .
The interview led Pompeo to issue a highly unusual official statement accusing Kelly of lying to him—though he did not specifically deny the her account of events .
Pompeo is expected to visit Ukraine on Thursday , followed by stops in Belarus and Central Asia .
The domino effect .
The series of events that led to Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theories on the fringes of the internet that Ukraine , not Russia , interfered in U.S. elections .
FP ’ s Robbie Gramer and Amy Mackinnon trace the origins of one of those theories , the muddled world of Russian disinformation , and what it says about the ongoing impeachment trial .
Plane crash in Afghanistan .
A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command told Foreign Policy on Monday that the Pentagon is investigating reports of a possible crash of a U.S. Air Force battlefield communications aircraft in Afghanistan over territory controlled by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit for shooting down a U.S. military aircraft , but the Pentagon hasn ’ t released any further information at this time .
Trump ’ s Middle East peace plan .
Trump is set to unveil his long-awaited Middle East peace plan at the White House on Tuesday after meeting today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival , Benny Gantz .
The deal is expected to be favorable to Israel .
In response , Palestinian officials threatened on Sunday to withdraw from key provisions of the Oslo accords , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israel and Palestine .
The timing is significant as both Trump and Netanyahu face domestic challenges : Trump with his impeachment trial , and Netanyahu with corruption charges .
Both leaders also face elections this year .
Though details of the plan remain unknown , White House Senior Advisor Jared Kushner—one of the plan ’ s architects—has said that it would not contain the phrase “ two-state solution , ” one of the main planks of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process to date .
Macron to Trump : Don ’ t withdraw troops from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pleading with the United States not to reduce its support of French counterterrorism efforts against extremist organizations in Africa ’ s Sahel region .
The appeal comes ahead of French Defense Minister Florence Parly ’ s visit to Washington this week .
The United States has provided crucial logistical support for French troops , including plane refueling and intelligence support .
But the French mission has faced challenges in recent years , including an upsurge in terror activity .
As U.S. security officials grow skeptical , they are also weighing shifting U.S. military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Russia .
Tensions mount in Iraq .
Five rockets crashed near the U.S. embassy inside Baghdad ’ s high-security Green Zone on Sunday—the third such attack since the assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani earlier this month .
No injuries were reported , and it is unknown who carried out the attack .
The strike is part of a broader escalation of tensions within Iraq since the U.S. military killed Suleimani in Baghdad .
The attack on the U.S. embassy happened days after thousands of Iraqi protesters , supported by influential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the streets of the capital to demand that U.S. troops leave the country .
Dunford goes to Lockheed .
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford will join the board of Lockheed Martin , the Pentagon ’ s largest weapons supplier and maker of the F-35 fighter jet , Reuters reports .
Dunford retired last year as the U.S. military ’ s top commander .
A post-Brexit ambassador .
Veteran EU diplomat João Vale de Almeida , former EU ambassador to the United States and United Nations , will become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the United Kingdom , as the long break up between Britain and EU nears its end .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or typos to securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief. What’s on tap today: New revelations from John Bolton’s book rock Trump’s impeachment trial , conflicting reports emerge of a U.S. military plane crash in Afghanistan , and France pushes the United States to keep troops in West Africa .
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief. What’s on tap today: New revelations from John Bolton’s book rock Trump’s impeachment trial, conflicting reports emerge of a U.S. military plane crash in Afghanistan, and France pushes the United States to keep troops in West Africa.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Monday, please sign up here.
Bolton’s Book Offers New Revelations
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s defense team lays out their arguments in the next phase of his impeachment trial in the Senate, Democrats are seizing on new revelations outlined by former National Security Advisor John Bolton in his forthcoming book. Bolton writes that Trump told him last August that he wanted to keep withholding nearly $400 million of military aid to Ukraine until it agreed to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, one of Trump’s potential presidential Democratic rivals.
The account in Bolton’s book, first reported by the New York Times, appears to contradict the White House’s assertions that the hold on aid to Ukraine was separate from Trump pushing its government to investigate Biden—a central part of Trump’s defense. The eleventh hour bombshell could increase pressure on enough Senate Republicans to vote to allow witnesses in the trial, including Bolton—a measure Democrats have pushed for from the outset. Trump vehemently denies the claims in Bolton’s book.
Esper’s role. The New York Times report on Bolton’s book includes a key detail that may implicate Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who has managed to remain largely out of the spotlight on the Ukraine issue. Esper reportedly joined Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in urging the president to release the military aid after lower-level Ukrainian officials complained about the holdup. Trump rebuffed them.
Esper has remained largely untouched by the Ukraine scandal because he was confirmed as defense secretary on July 23, 2019, two months after the Pentagon approved the aid. But the new report raises questions about how much the defense secretary knew—and whether he could have done more to stop it.
Pompeo heads to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Pompeo finds himself in hot water on the eve of a trip to Ukraine after a contentious interview with NPR. “Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?” he reportedly said in an expletive-filled outburst after the interview, according to NPR’s Mary Louise Kelly. The interview led Pompeo to issue a highly unusual official statement accusing Kelly of lying to him—though he did not specifically deny the her account of events. Pompeo is expected to visit Ukraine on Thursday, followed by stops in Belarus and Central Asia.
The domino effect. The series of events that led to Trump’s impeachment saga began with unfounded conspiracy theories on the fringes of the internet that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in U.S. elections. FP’s Robbie Gramer and Amy Mackinnon trace the origins of one of those theories, the muddled world of Russian disinformation, and what it says about the ongoing impeachment trial.
What We’re Watching
Plane crash in Afghanistan. A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command told Foreign Policy on Monday that the Pentagon is investigating reports of a possible crash of a U.S. Air Force battlefield communications aircraft in Afghanistan over territory controlled by the Taliban. The group has reportedly claimed credit for shooting down a U.S. military aircraft, but the Pentagon hasn’t released any further information at this time.
Trump’s Middle East peace plan. Trump is set to unveil his long-awaited Middle East peace plan at the White House on Tuesday after meeting today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival, Benny Gantz. The deal is expected to be favorable to Israel. In response, Palestinian officials threatened on Sunday to withdraw from key provisions of the Oslo accords, the current arrangement that governs relations between Israel and Palestine.
The timing is significant as both Trump and Netanyahu face domestic challenges: Trump with his impeachment trial, and Netanyahu with corruption charges. Both leaders also face elections this year. Though details of the plan remain unknown, White House Senior Advisor Jared Kushner—one of the plan’s architects—has said that it would not contain the phrase “two-state solution,” one of the main planks of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process to date.
Macron to Trump: Don’t withdraw troops from Africa. French President Emmanuel Macron is pleading with the United States not to reduce its support of French counterterrorism efforts against extremist organizations in Africa’s Sahel region. The appeal comes ahead of French Defense Minister Florence Parly’s visit to Washington this week. The United States has provided crucial logistical support for French troops, including plane refueling and intelligence support. But the French mission has faced challenges in recent years, including an upsurge in terror activity. As U.S. security officials grow skeptical, they are also weighing shifting U.S. military presence toward geopolitical threats posed by China and Russia.
Tensions mount in Iraq. Five rockets crashed near the U.S. embassy inside Baghdad’s high-security Green Zone on Sunday—the third such attack since the assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani earlier this month. No injuries were reported, and it is unknown who carried out the attack. The strike is part of a broader escalation of tensions within Iraq since the U.S. military killed Suleimani in Baghdad. The attack on the U.S. embassy happened days after thousands of Iraqi protesters, supported by influential Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, took to the streets of the capital to demand that U.S. troops leave the country.
Movers and Shakers
Dunford goes to Lockheed. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford will join the board of Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon’s largest weapons supplier and maker of the F-35 fighter jet, Reuters reports. Dunford retired last year as the U.S. military’s top commander.
A post-Brexit ambassador. Veteran EU diplomat João Vale de Almeida, former EU ambassador to the United States and United Nations, will become the EU’s first top envoy to the United Kingdom, as the long break up between Britain and EU nears its end.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.
Dan Haverty contributed to this report.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-27--We Know Peace Plans—This Isn’t One of Them

We Know Peace Plans—This Isn ’ t One of Them As two former members of the U.S. negotiating team on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict , we are deeply skeptical about the peace plan that U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly plans to present to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week .
Coming at a time when Trump needs a distraction from the impeachment proceedings and Netanyahu is himself struggling with corruption charges , the timing of the road map is highly dubious .
Also rendering the plan a farce is that one of the parties to the conflict—the Palestinians—have not been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and have , in fact , refused to meet with the Trump administration for over two years .
It is nonsensical to expect them to go along with a deal written by someone who tried to give away their capital , closed the 175-year-old U.S. diplomatic mission to their people , closed down the Palestinians ’ own mission in Washington , and severed all financial ties .
This is not a way to set the grounds for a serious diplomatic process .
Despite our extreme skepticism over the Trump administration ’ s process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pathway to Israeli-Palestinian peace .
Any plan , including Trump ’ s , must contain some fundamental elements that every person in the Holy Land—whether Jewish or Palestinian—can easily understand .
And any successful plan must address some key technical points as well .
This plan may do more damage than good and should be quickly thrown into the dustbin of history .
If Trump ’ s plan contains these elements , it could still help move things in a positive direction .
If it does not ( and we strongly suspect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this plan will do more damage than good and should be quickly thrown into the dustbin of history .
Here are the basics .
First , Jews and Palestinians both have deep , unshakable attachments to the Holy Land .
Any plan that does not fully recognize this fact is doomed to failure .
Second , both peoples have experienced deep levels of collective and individual trauma that makes their personal safety and collective security vital to their national psyches—the Jewish people , through anti-Semitism through the ages , the horrors of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israel since its founding ; the Palestinians through 70-plus years of refugeehood and 50-plus years of Israeli military occupation .
Third , any peace agreement needs to recognize that both peoples will vigilantly guard against any encroachment into their personal or collective freedoms .
Fourth , both the Jewish people and the Palestinian people—Christian and Muslim—have passionate attachments to the holy places in Jerusalem and elsewhere in the Holy Land , and access to them and accommodation must to be preserved .
Fifth , both peoples have tremendous aspirations and expectations for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Finally , the international community has been deeply implicated in the Holy Land morass from the outset .
It was the United Nations—including the United States—that in 1947 endorsed a plan that called for the creation of both the State of Israel and the State of Palestine .
The State of Israel came into being , and it is now one of the strongest and wealthiest nations on earth .
But the State of Palestine was never born , and its people are largely stateless refugees not only in the Holy Land @ @ @ @ @ @ @ East .
The basic parameters are very straightforward .
Whatever plan anyone proposes , it can be evaluated based on them .
And these principles also point to six technical solutions that will need to be part of any agreement .
First , there will need to be formal mutual recognition of the Jewish people ’ s attachment to the Land of Israel and the Palestinian people ’ s attachment to the Land of Palestine .
Without that acknowledgement on both sides , neither will truly believe that the other is giving up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreement on two states—Israel and Palestine—for two peoples must also include full rights for Israel ’ s 1.7 million Palestinian citizens and any Jewish settlers who choose to stay behind in a sovereign Palestinian state .
Third , the state will need to have clear borders based on the pre-1967 armistice lines that ends Israel ’ s military occupation .
There can be mutually agreed one-for-one land swaps where in exchange for Israel receiving territory inside the West Bank , it gives Palestine unpopulated land on its side of the armistice line .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be incorporated into Israel , but only if the Palestinian state can remain contiguous and viable .
Fourth , any agreement will need to include security arrangements that allow Israel to be able to defend itself and for Palestine to have the measure of security it needs for its own independence and dignity .
Annexing the Jordan River Valley , which is where the debate appears to be going in Israel , is entirely inconsistent with this approach and is not necessary .
However , we do believe that alternative security solutions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which were outlined by Marine Gen. John Allen in 2014 when he worked on this problem during the Obama administration and also articulated in a report produced by one of the co-authors of this article .
Fifth , there will need to be two capitals in Jerusalem—one for Israel and one for Palestine—with freedom of access to holy sites for all .
This is still entirely possible .
One option would be for the Jewish neighborhoods to stay under Israeli control , Arab neighborhoods to be part of Palestine , and a shared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be to simply have one unified shared capital of two states .
Finally there will also need to be a just , agreed , fair , and realistic solution for the millions of Palestinian refugees who live outside the West Bank and Gaza , be it citizenship in their countries of residence , citizenship in the new State of Palestine , compensation , a return of an agreed but likely small number of people to Israel , or third-country resettlement .
These are the elements that should be used to judge the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump does , whatever plan he releases , unless he strives for a measure of equality of freedom , security , and prosperity for Jews and Palestinians in the Holy Land and has the political will to bring the parties together toward this end , he—or any future president—is doomed to fail .

As two former members of the U.S. negotiating team on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we are deeply skeptical about the peace plan that U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly plans to present to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week. Coming at a time when Trump needs a distraction from the impeachment proceedings and Netanyahu is himself struggling with corruption charges, the timing of the road map is highly dubious.
As two former members of the U.S. negotiating team on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we are deeply skeptical about the peace plan that U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly plans to present to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week. Coming at a time when Trump needs a distraction from the impeachment proceedings and Netanyahu is himself struggling with corruption charges, the timing of the road map is highly dubious.
Also rendering the plan a farce is that one of the parties to the conflict—the Palestinians—have not been engaged on the substance of the proposal and have, in fact, refused to meet with the Trump administration for over two years. It is nonsensical to expect them to go along with a deal written by someone who tried to give away their capital, closed the 175-year-old U.S. diplomatic mission to their people, closed down the Palestinians’ own mission in Washington, and severed all financial ties. This is not a way to set the grounds for a serious diplomatic process.
Despite our extreme skepticism over the Trump administration’s process, we still believe that there is a pathway to Israeli-Palestinian peace. Any plan, including Trump’s, must contain some fundamental elements that every person in the Holy Land—whether Jewish or Palestinian—can easily understand. And any successful plan must address some key technical points as well.
This plan may do more damage than good and should be quickly thrown into the dustbin of history.
If Trump’s plan contains these elements, it could still help move things in a positive direction. If it does not (and we strongly suspect that it doesn’t), this plan will do more damage than good and should be quickly thrown into the dustbin of history.
Here are the basics.
First, Jews and Palestinians both have deep, unshakable attachments to the Holy Land. Any plan that does not fully recognize this fact is doomed to failure.
Second, both peoples have experienced deep levels of collective and individual trauma that makes their personal safety and collective security vital to their national psyches—the Jewish people, through anti-Semitism through the ages, the horrors of the Holocaust, and the ongoing attacks on Israel since its founding; the Palestinians through 70-plus years of refugeehood and 50-plus years of Israeli military occupation.
Third, any peace agreement needs to recognize that both peoples will vigilantly guard against any encroachment into their personal or collective freedoms.
Fourth, both the Jewish people and the Palestinian people—Christian and Muslim—have passionate attachments to the holy places in Jerusalem and elsewhere in the Holy Land, and access to them and accommodation must to be preserved.
Fifth, both peoples have tremendous aspirations and expectations for the prosperity of their children and their societies.
Finally, the international community has been deeply implicated in the Holy Land morass from the outset. It was the United Nations—including the United States—that in 1947 endorsed a plan that called for the creation of both the State of Israel and the State of Palestine. The State of Israel came into being, and it is now one of the strongest and wealthiest nations on earth. But the State of Palestine was never born, and its people are largely stateless refugees not only in the Holy Land, but also scattered around the Middle East.
The basic parameters are very straightforward. Whatever plan anyone proposes, it can be evaluated based on them. And these principles also point to six technical solutions that will need to be part of any agreement.
First, there will need to be formal mutual recognition of the Jewish people’s attachment to the Land of Israel and the Palestinian people’s attachment to the Land of Palestine. Without that acknowledgement on both sides, neither will truly believe that the other is giving up on the conflict.
Second, an agreement on two states—Israel and Palestine—for two peoples must also include full rights for Israel’s 1.7 million Palestinian citizens and any Jewish settlers who choose to stay behind in a sovereign Palestinian state.
Third, the state will need to have clear borders based on the pre-1967 armistice lines that ends Israel’s military occupation. There can be mutually agreed one-for-one land swaps where in exchange for Israel receiving territory inside the West Bank, it gives Palestine unpopulated land on its side of the armistice line. This can allow most Jewish settlers to be incorporated into Israel, but only if the Palestinian state can remain contiguous and viable.
Fourth, any agreement will need to include security arrangements that allow Israel to be able to defend itself and for Palestine to have the measure of security it needs for its own independence and dignity. Annexing the Jordan River Valley, which is where the debate appears to be going in Israel, is entirely inconsistent with this approach and is not necessary. However, we do believe that alternative security solutions that could meet these criteria are possible—many of which were outlined by Marine Gen. John Allen in 2014 when he worked on this problem during the Obama administration and also articulated in a report produced by one of the co-authors of this article.
Fifth, there will need to be two capitals in Jerusalem—one for Israel and one for Palestine—with freedom of access to holy sites for all. This is still entirely possible. One option would be for the Jewish neighborhoods to stay under Israeli control, Arab neighborhoods to be part of Palestine, and a shared arrangement for the Old City. Another would be to simply have one unified shared capital of two states.
Finally there will also need to be a just, agreed, fair, and realistic solution for the millions of Palestinian refugees who live outside the West Bank and Gaza, be it citizenship in their countries of residence, citizenship in the new State of Palestine, compensation, a return of an agreed but likely small number of people to Israel, or third-country resettlement.
These are the elements that should be used to judge the Trump team’s proposal. Whatever Trump does, whatever plan he releases, unless he strives for a measure of equality of freedom, security, and prosperity for Jews and Palestinians in the Holy Land and has the political will to bring the parties together toward this end, he—or any future president—is doomed to fail.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-27--For Netanyahu, Trump’s White House Is the Gift That Keeps on Giving

For Netanyahu , Trump ’ s White House Is the Gift That Keeps on Giving TEL AVIV , Israel—U.S .
President Donald Trump has been talking for years about brokering the “ deal of the century ” between Israel and the Palestinians , but now that the details are trickling out , it looks more like the gift of the century—to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .
Trump announced last Thursday that he would reveal the plan to Netanyahu and Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz in meetings in Washington this week .
If getting the peace train back on track @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be less than ideal .
Netanyahu is in the midst of a reelection campaign—the third in less than a year—while he also fights corruption charges .
Trump faces his own challenge , with ongoing impeachment hearings in the U.S. Senate .
But to many analysts , that seemed to be the point .
Israeli press reports suggested the plan would allow Israel to annex a large swath of the occupied West Bank , incorporate most of the Jewish settlements there , and retain control over most of East Jerusalem .
Netanyahu portrayed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offer that only he could wheedle from the United States .
“ Today , I depart for Washington to stand alongside an American president who is bringing a plan that , I believe , promotes our most essential interests , ” Netanyahu said Sunday , just before boarding a plane for Washington .
“ Together with him , we will make history.
” Netanyahu seemed to benefit in other ways as well .
His trip helps divert attention from an expected vote on Tuesday in a parliamentary committee pertaining to Netanyahu ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corruption cases .
The Israeli leader prefers to put off any discussion until after the March 2 election , hoping he ’ ll win a solid majority for immunity .
“ A prime minister who ’ s facing significant legal problems back home [ benefits greatly from having ] , at a key point in time , a plan rollout , which he can take a lot of credit for helping to formulate , ” said Yaakov Katz , the editor in chief of the right-leaning , English-language Jerusalem Post .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him because it can be a distraction and take the Israeli electorate ’ s attention away from the indictments.
” Israeli media outlets described various concessions they said were included in the initiative , with a consensus that Trump ’ s plan was much more favorable to Israel than peace formulas advanced by previous administrations : • Israel would be allowed to annex 20 percent of the West Bank , according to the news site Ynet .
After a four-year period , Palestinians would be allowed to establish a demilitarized state in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they met some far-reaching conditions , including dismantling the Islamic Hamas group .
• Israel would retain control of an overwhelming majority of Jewish settlements , according to Ynet and Channel 13 TV news .
• Israel would cede no part of Jerusalem ’ s Old City , and little of the rest of East Jerusalem , which the Palestinians demand as the capital of their state , according to Ynet and Channel 13 TV news .
• Palestinian refugees would not be allowed “ a right of return ” to the Palestinian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ynet .
The White House would not comment on the leaks , saying only that Trump would meet with Netanyahu and Gantz in meetings on Monday and Tuesday .
The administration did not invite Palestinian representatives to Washington to hear about the plan , yet another sign that obtaining a deal might not be Trump ’ s primary motivation .
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would likely have turned down any invitation .
He has been at odds with Trump over U.S. decisions to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem , expel the Palestinian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid .
“ There ’ s nothing on offer for us , ” said Hanan Ashrawi , a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Committee .
“ This is a partnership to destroy the chances for peace and hand over to Israel a shopping list of everything it wanted.
” More than two years in the making , the peace plan is the result of numerous rounds of regional diplomacy by Trump ’ s son-in-law and senior advisor , Jared Kushner , and Jason Greenblatt , Trump ’ s appointed peace envoy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on read outs of the preternaturally pro-Bibi Trump peace plan , no doubt Trump and Kushner are running Netanyahu ’ s re-election campaign , ” tweeted Aaron David Miller , a Middle East expert who advised six secretaries of state .
“ Releasing a plan ( untethered from anything other than politics ) 6 weeks before Israel ’ s 3rd election within a year and without regard to Palestinians , takes diplomatic malpractice to new levels , ” Miller added .
Netanyahu said he requested Gantz be included in the meetings , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far away from the action during the parliamentary hearing on immunity .
Faced with the choice of missing the vote or spurning the invitation , Gantz managed to schedule a separate meeting with Trump for Monday .
He has said he will fly back to Israel in time for the Tuesday hearing .
Israeli media reports have suggested that Trump will also allow Israel to annex the Jordan Valley , a strip of West Bank land long coveted by Israeli military planners as a buffer against a ground invasion from the east .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ government might push through such a decision even before the election , making good on a promise from previous campaigns .
Both Israeli and Palestinian analysts have speculated that a unilateral annexation could stoke unrest in the Palestinian territories .
“ The plan plays into Netanyahu ’ s annexation discourse about the Jordan Valley and beyond , ” said Nimrod Goren , the head of Mitvim , a foreign-policy think tank .
The date for the meeting , and the Gantz invitation , “ leads to the assumption that this is constructed A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way.
” Israel held parliamentary elections in April 2019 with inconclusive results , forcing a second vote in September .
That one also produced no clear winner .
In the first round , Trump announced that the United States recognized Israel ’ s annexation of the Golan Heights , another departure from long-standing U.S. policy .
The move was seen as an effort to boost Netanyahu ’ s chances against Gantz , a former army general who heads the centrist Blue and White party .
Polling ahead of the March 2 vote points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comment by Jordanian Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz that Amman rejects any unilateral changes to the status quo in the West Bank , there has been no official reaction from Arab governments to reports of the deal .
The initiative had enjoyed some buy-in in the region .
Last June , Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies of the United States helped promote the plan by attending an economic conference in Bahrain ( albeit without the participation of the Palestinians ) .
It ’ s common for domestic politics both in Israel and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ element hovering at the edges of Middle East diplomacy , ” said Scott Lasensky , a diplomatic advisor in the U.S. Embassy in Israel during the Obama administration .
In March 1996 , President Bill Clinton arranged an Arab-Israeli regional summit that was widely viewed as an attempt to help Prime Minister Shimon Peres in his election campaign against Netanyahu .
Peres went on to lose the vote by a small margin .
When U.S. President Richard Nixon faced the threat of impeachment in 1974 , he toured the Arab states and Israel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his political troubles at home .
But the current initiative lacks any momentum for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations—which have been mothballed for nearly six years , experts say .
“ The timing doesn ’ t have anything to do with the peace process .
The timing is to help Trump and Bibi , ” said Jonathan Rynhold , a professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University and an expert on U.S.-Israel relations .
“ The peace process is merely a tool .
”

TEL AVIV, Israel—U.S. President Donald Trump has been talking for years about brokering the “deal of the century” between Israel and the Palestinians, but now that the details are trickling out, it looks more like the gift of the century—to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
TEL AVIV, Israel—U.S. President Donald Trump has been talking for years about brokering the “deal of the century” between Israel and the Palestinians, but now that the details are trickling out, it looks more like the gift of the century—to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump announced last Thursday that he would reveal the plan to Netanyahu and Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz in meetings in Washington this week. If getting the peace train back on track was the goal, the timing appeared to be less than ideal. Netanyahu is in the midst of a reelection campaign—the third in less than a year—while he also fights corruption charges. Trump faces his own challenge, with ongoing impeachment hearings in the U.S. Senate.
But to many analysts, that seemed to be the point.
Israeli press reports suggested the plan would allow Israel to annex a large swath of the occupied West Bank, incorporate most of the Jewish settlements there, and retain control over most of East Jerusalem. Netanyahu portrayed it over the weekend as a once-in-a-lifetime offer that only he could wheedle from the United States.
“Today, I depart for Washington to stand alongside an American president who is bringing a plan that, I believe, promotes our most essential interests,” Netanyahu said Sunday, just before boarding a plane for Washington. “Together with him, we will make history.”
Netanyahu seemed to benefit in other ways as well. His trip helps divert attention from an expected vote on Tuesday in a parliamentary committee pertaining to Netanyahu’s request for immunity from prosecution in three corruption cases. The Israeli leader prefers to put off any discussion until after the March 2 election, hoping he’ll win a solid majority for immunity.
“A prime minister who’s facing significant legal problems back home [benefits greatly from having], at a key point in time, a plan rollout, which he can take a lot of credit for helping to formulate,” said Yaakov Katz, the editor in chief of the right-leaning, English-language Jerusalem Post.
“It can be viewed as a gift to him because it can be a distraction and take the Israeli electorate’s attention away from the indictments.”
Israeli media outlets described various concessions they said were included in the initiative, with a consensus that Trump’s plan was much more favorable to Israel than peace formulas advanced by previous administrations:
Israel would be allowed to annex 20 percent of the West Bank, according to the news site Ynet. After a four-year period, Palestinians would be allowed to establish a demilitarized state in the remainder of the West Bank, provided they met some far-reaching conditions, including dismantling the Islamic Hamas group.
Israel would retain control of an overwhelming majority of Jewish settlements, according to Ynet and Channel 13 TV news.
Israel would cede no part of Jerusalem’s Old City, and little of the rest of East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians demand as the capital of their state, according to Ynet and Channel 13 TV news.
Palestinian refugees would not be allowed “a right of return” to the Palestinian territories or to Israel, according to Ynet.
The White House would not comment on the leaks, saying only that Trump would meet with Netanyahu and Gantz in meetings on Monday and Tuesday.
The administration did not invite Palestinian representatives to Washington to hear about the plan, yet another sign that obtaining a deal might not be Trump’s primary motivation. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would likely have turned down any invitation. He has been at odds with Trump over U.S. decisions to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, expel the Palestinian ambassador to Washington, and slash U.S. aid.
“There’s nothing on offer for us,” said Hanan Ashrawi, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Committee. “This is a partnership to destroy the chances for peace and hand over to Israel a shopping list of everything it wanted.”
More than two years in the making, the peace plan is the result of numerous rounds of regional diplomacy by Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor, Jared Kushner, and Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s appointed peace envoy who departed last year.
“Based on read outs of the preternaturally pro-Bibi Trump peace plan, no doubt Trump and Kushner are running Netanyahu’s re-election campaign,” tweeted Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert who advised six secretaries of state.
“Releasing a plan (untethered from anything other than politics) 6 weeks before Israel’s 3rd election within a year and without regard to Palestinians, takes diplomatic malpractice to new levels,” Miller added.
Netanyahu said he requested Gantz be included in the meetings, which would force his political opponent to be far away from the action during the parliamentary hearing on immunity. Faced with the choice of missing the vote or spurning the invitation, Gantz managed to schedule a separate meeting with Trump for Monday. He has said he will fly back to Israel in time for the Tuesday hearing.
Israeli media reports have suggested that Trump will also allow Israel to annex the Jordan Valley, a strip of West Bank land long coveted by Israeli military planners as a buffer against a ground invasion from the east. Israeli commentators speculated that Netanyahu’s government might push through such a decision even before the election, making good on a promise from previous campaigns. Both Israeli and Palestinian analysts have speculated that a unilateral annexation could stoke unrest in the Palestinian territories.
“The plan plays into Netanyahu’s annexation discourse about the Jordan Valley and beyond,” said Nimrod Goren, the head of Mitvim, a foreign-policy think tank. The date for the meeting, and the Gantz invitation, “leads to the assumption that this is constructed A to Z in a political, electoral way.”
Israel held parliamentary elections in April 2019 with inconclusive results, forcing a second vote in September. That one also produced no clear winner. In the first round, Trump announced that the United States recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, another departure from long-standing U.S. policy. The move was seen as an effort to boost Netanyahu’s chances against Gantz, a former army general who heads the centrist Blue and White party. Polling ahead of the March 2 vote points to sustained deadlock.
Other than a comment by Jordanian Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz that Amman rejects any unilateral changes to the status quo in the West Bank, there has been no official reaction from Arab governments to reports of the deal.
The initiative had enjoyed some buy-in in the region. Last June, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies of the United States helped promote the plan by attending an economic conference in Bahrain (albeit without the participation of the Palestinians).
It’s common for domestic politics both in Israel and the United States “to be the invisible element hovering at the edges of Middle East diplomacy,” said Scott Lasensky, a diplomatic advisor in the U.S. Embassy in Israel during the Obama administration.
In March 1996, President Bill Clinton arranged an Arab-Israeli regional summit that was widely viewed as an attempt to help Prime Minister Shimon Peres in his election campaign against Netanyahu. Peres went on to lose the vote by a small margin.
When U.S. President Richard Nixon faced the threat of impeachment in 1974, he toured the Arab states and Israel to promote negotiations—and deflect attention away from his political troubles at home.
But the current initiative lacks any momentum for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations—which have been mothballed for nearly six years, experts say.
“The timing doesn’t have anything to do with the peace process. The timing is to help Trump and Bibi,” said Jonathan Rynhold, a professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University and an expert on U.S.-Israel relations. “The peace process is merely a tool.”


foreignpolicy--2020-01-26--How China’s Coronavirus Is Spreading—and How to Stop It

How China ’ s Coronavirus Is Spreading—and How to Stop It Until the 21st century , the worst a coronavirus , a large family of viruses capable of infecting humans and animals , could do to humans was to deliver the common cold—annoying but hardly sinister .
But three times so far in the 21st century , novel coronaviruses have emerged that could potentially cause a deadly pandemic—SARS ( severe acute respiratory syndrome ) in 2003 , MERS ( Middle East respiratory syndrome ) in 2012 , and now 2019-nCoV emanating from Wuhan , China .
As of Jan. 26 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least 2,463 people and caused at least 80 deaths .
Those numbers are certain to mushroom .
Controlling the spread of the virus requires both public health and medical measures—and for that we need a clear clinical profile .
At this stage , that information is only just being put together , but what we do have is disturbing .
So far , the limited clinical information coming out of China means we know only about the mid-to-worst-case outcomes—from moderate to life-threatening pneumonia .
Two studies released on Jan. 24—one about 41 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ family cluster of six separate from those 41—provide both clues and concerns .
The official story is that this new coronavirus emerged from a Wuhan wet market , where live animals that would never normally meet in the wild live side by side , facilitating trans-species mutation of pathogens .
Yet the first three known cases from Dec. 1 and 2 were not linked to the market .
Neither were 11 more cases of the 41 reviewed in the recent study .
This early data suggests an evolving virus that surfaced considerably earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chest infections and common symptoms , it honed its capacity to spread from human to human .
As happened with SARS , new corona may be mutating along the way , gradually becoming more virulent .
The coronavirus is a physically large virus—in relative terms , at just 125 nanometers with a surface of spike projections , too big to survive or stay suspended in the air for hours or travel more than a few feet .
Like influenza , this coronavirus spreads through both direct and indirect contact .
Direct contact occurs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among friends and family through close contact with oral secretions .
Indirect contact results when an infected person coughs or sneezes , spreading coronavirus droplets on nearby surfaces , including knobs , bedrails , and smartphones .
As with SARS , droplets generated during medical procedures such as bronchoscopy and respiratory treatment may be aerosolized , infecting multiple medical staff and enabling super-spreading .
Hand hygiene and personal protective barriers—gowns , gloves , masks , and goggles—reduce droplet transmission .
The incubation period , however , is unknown but currently very roughly estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To complicate matters further , we do not know how easily the new coronavirus spreads .
Can transmission take place before the onset of symptoms ?
( Measles , one of the most contagious diseases on Earth , is infectious two to four days beforehand . )
Do people who never become symptomatic nonetheless spread the disease ?
Do symptomatic people become less contagious over time , like SARS , or is it like Ebola , which becomes increasingly contagious as the disease progresses ?
These are all unanswered questions .
Like its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus causes pneumonia—the infection of one or both lungs .
But that may be only one potential syndrome , which is one of the factors making it difficult to spot .
In fact , it probably causes a spectrum of disease , from asymptomatic to lethal .
Even in deadly cases , new coronavirus infections start off much like many other less dangerous diseases .
Initial symptoms are fever , dry cough , myalgia ( muscle pain ) , and fatigue .
Productive cough ( a cough that produces phlegm ) and headache @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blood ) and diarrhea occasional .
It can take about a week before an infected person feels sick enough to seek medical care .
After this deceptively slow start , the disease progresses rapidly during the second week—in a similar fashion to SARS .
Hypoxemia caused by increasing lung injury leads to difficulty breathing and the need for oxygen therapy .
ARDS ( acute respiratory distress syndrome ) is a common complication .
Between 25 and 32 percent of cases are admitted to the intensive care unit ( ICU ) for mechanical ventilation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an artificial lung for oxygenation ) .
Other complications include septic shock , acute kidney injury , and virus-induced cardiac injury .
The extensive lung damage also sets the lung up for secondary bacterial pneumonia , which occurs in 10 percent of ICU admissions .
( This may also be the case for the Spanish flu of 1918 , which killed 50 million people ; the fatalities attributed to the viral influenza may be more because of the bacterial pneumonia that followed . )
Pneumonia from any cause severe enough to require ICU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mortality .
Defined as an infection of one or both lungs , it was already considered an ancient disease in Hippocrates ’ s time .
In 1881 , pneumococcus—the main cause of bacterial pneumonia—was finally identified .
Over the next century , medical advances and the development of antibiotics made treatment possible , honed by intensivists to reduce the mortality rate to single figures .
In contrast , because few respiratory viruses cause more than mild infection , adult intensive care physicians generally have relatively little experience with viral pneumonia .
Yet infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can lead to severe pneumonitis , ARDS , and respiratory failure , possibly because of an exaggerated inflammatory reaction .
( Corticosteroids , the go-to anti-inflammatory drug , are ineffective and not recommended by the World Health Organization , or WHO . )
The lack of effective antivirals and treatment options means viral pneumonia has a high mortality rate .
We do not know how lethal the new coronavirus is .
While the single figures of deaths in early January seemed reassuring , the death toll has now climbed to above 3 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lethal lag time ( the time for those infected to die ) .
Another big unknown is the risk factors that would lead infection in a deadly direction .
Certainly , some adults have compromised immune systems due to chronic illnesses .
Of these , 15 percent have died , with higher fatality rates among older patients and those with co-morbidities of diabetes , hypertension , or coronary artery disease .
However , most patients with severe illness were healthy to begin with , including a 30-year-old man who recently died .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In quarantined Wuhan , dozens of fever clinics are singling out anyone with a fever of 99.1 degrees Fahrenheit or above—the cardinal sign for 98 percent of pneumonia cases—and then interviewing them about possible exposure to the coronavirus .
In theory , this sounds reasonable .
In practice , it is the screening from hell .
Early symptoms of fever and cough are clinically indistinguishable from the usual winter suspects , such as influenza , while fever is an undifferentiated sign , common to hundreds of noninfective diseases from allergies to arthritis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Because 110,000 people ( about 1 percent of the population ) in Wuhan might have a febrile illness at any given time , clinics , hospitals , and medical personnel are overwhelmed , short on lab tests and personal protective equipment .
And as all those with a fever are detained until lab tests are back , nosocomial infection—transmission of disease in crowded clinics—becomes more likely .
Exit and entry screenings at international airports have been successful in picking up cases in Thailand and South Korea but have missed cases still incubating in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ later detected in hospital after symptoms manifested .
More worrying is that several cases have been identified without a fever .
This includes detection of coronavirus in a 10-year-old girl who exhibited no symptoms at all .
If the coronavirus can be spread before symptoms appear , it will greatly complicate screening efforts even beyond the inadequacies of the fever test .
One puzzling aspect so far is the thankful lack of child victims .
Usually , children , with less developed immune systems than adults , come down with one illness after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ RSV viral pneumonia , which results in an estimated 118,200 child deaths annually .
( Adults are not seriously affected . )
Yet few children have yet been reported with coronavirus symptoms .
That does not mean that no children have been infected .
A similar pattern of benign disease in children , with increasing severity and mortality with age , was seen in SARS and MERS .
SARS had a mortality rate averaging 10 percent .
Yet no children , and just 1 percent of youths under 24 , died , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent risk of dying .
Is being an adult a risk factor per se ?
If so , what is it about childhood that confers protection ?
It may be the nonspecific effects of live vaccines such as for measles and rubella , which already have been found to provide protection from diseases beyond their immediate target .
That may also explain why more men than women have been infected by the coronavirus , because women routinely are given a rubella vaccine booster in their teens to guard against the dangers of having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an accelerated coronavirus vaccine to be ready , could innate immunity in adults be boosted by giving measles vaccines ?
The virus itself is not the only risk .
Fewer than half the patients hospitalized so far for the coronavirus ended up having the underlying disease .
As hundreds more cases , many of them likely to be false positives , are picked up during aggressive screening , fewer patients can receive adequate support care .
This compounds the clinical and ethical burden on medics working 24-hour shifts , working alongside colleagues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitals because they are unwilling to risk infecting their families by going home .
The risk of hospitals themselves becoming sites of infection is considerable : In March 2003 , it was the infection of scores of medical staff that led the WHO to declare a global alert for SARS .
This time , while only 16 medics are reported to have been infected , this is a likely underestimate—and the first case of a doctor dying from the virus has just been reported .
Fever clinics and screening are an exercise in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients from every other common winter illness .
Because there is no rapid diagnostic test , screening has focused on whether people have a fever , quickly overwhelming medical facilities until more time-consuming laboratory tests can be performed .
Moreover , if nonsymptomatic people can spread the coronavirus , the focus on symptoms may be causing dangerous oversights .
The most powerful measures may be public education about the best ways to avoid infection , such as avoiding physical contact with people known to be infected , and to minimize spread from unidentified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
China is taking these measures , with public health information broadcast through multiple means , from state-run television to the village loudspeakers that usually blare propaganda .
These steps can protect everyone , including families as they care for members who come down with typical flulike symptoms and may not seem to require more intensive treatment for several days .
A more targeted approach can also ensure that medical facilities can focus on the people who really need intensive care rather than the far greater numbers who may simply have a fever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ laboratory tests can clear them .
Any new deadly pathogen inevitably gives rise to panic .
But experience with other epidemics has shown us that a targeted approach can contain and arrest the spread of a virus—even more effectively than sweeping quarantines .

Until the 21st century, the worst a coronavirus, a large family of viruses capable of infecting humans and animals, could do to humans was to deliver the common cold—annoying but hardly sinister. But three times so far in the 21st century, novel coronaviruses have emerged that could potentially cause a deadly pandemic—SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003, MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) in 2012, and now 2019-nCoV emanating from Wuhan, China. As of Jan. 26, the new coronavirus has reportedly infected at least 2,463 people and caused at least 80 deaths. Those numbers are certain to mushroom.
Until the 21st century, the worst a coronavirus, a large family of viruses capable of infecting humans and animals, could do to humans was to deliver the common cold—annoying but hardly sinister. But three times so far in the 21st century, novel coronaviruses have emerged that could potentially cause a deadly pandemic—SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003, MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) in 2012, and now 2019-nCoV emanating from Wuhan, China. As of Jan. 26, the new coronavirus has reportedly infected at least 2,463 people and caused at least 80 deaths. Those numbers are certain to mushroom.
Controlling the spread of the virus requires both public health and medical measures—and for that we need a clear clinical profile. At this stage, that information is only just being put together, but what we do have is disturbing.
So far, the limited clinical information coming out of China means we know only about the mid-to-worst-case outcomes—from moderate to life-threatening pneumonia. Two studies released on Jan. 24—one about 41 infected patients and the other on a family cluster of six separate from those 41—provide both clues and concerns.
The official story is that this new coronavirus emerged from a Wuhan wet market, where live animals that would never normally meet in the wild live side by side, facilitating trans-species mutation of pathogens. Yet the first three known cases from Dec. 1 and 2 were not linked to the market. Neither were 11 more cases of the 41 reviewed in the recent study. This early data suggests an evolving virus that surfaced considerably earlier. Undetected among the plethora of similar chest infections and common symptoms, it honed its capacity to spread from human to human. As happened with SARS, new corona may be mutating along the way, gradually becoming more virulent.
The coronavirus is a physically large virus—in relative terms, at just 125 nanometers with a surface of spike projections, too big to survive or stay suspended in the air for hours or travel more than a few feet. Like influenza, this coronavirus spreads through both direct and indirect contact. Direct contact occurs through the physical transfer of the microorganism among friends and family through close contact with oral secretions. Indirect contact results when an infected person coughs or sneezes, spreading coronavirus droplets on nearby surfaces, including knobs, bedrails, and smartphones.
As with SARS, droplets generated during medical procedures such as bronchoscopy and respiratory treatment may be aerosolized, infecting multiple medical staff and enabling super-spreading. Hand hygiene and personal protective barriers—gowns, gloves, masks, and goggles—reduce droplet transmission. The incubation period, however, is unknown but currently very roughly estimated as between one and 14 days.
To complicate matters further, we do not know how easily the new coronavirus spreads. Can transmission take place before the onset of symptoms? (Measles, one of the most contagious diseases on Earth, is infectious two to four days beforehand.) Do people who never become symptomatic nonetheless spread the disease? Do symptomatic people become less contagious over time, like SARS, or is it like Ebola, which becomes increasingly contagious as the disease progresses? These are all unanswered questions.
Like its siblings SARS and MERS, the new coronavirus causes pneumonia—the infection of one or both lungs. But that may be only one potential syndrome, which is one of the factors making it difficult to spot. In fact, it probably causes a spectrum of disease, from asymptomatic to lethal. Even in deadly cases, new coronavirus infections start off much like many other less dangerous diseases. Initial symptoms are fever, dry cough, myalgia (muscle pain), and fatigue. Productive cough (a cough that produces phlegm) and headache are infrequent, hemoptysis (coughing up blood) and diarrhea occasional. It can take about a week before an infected person feels sick enough to seek medical care.
After this deceptively slow start, the disease progresses rapidly during the second week—in a similar fashion to SARS. Hypoxemia caused by increasing lung injury leads to difficulty breathing and the need for oxygen therapy. ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) is a common complication. Between 25 and 32 percent of cases are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for mechanical ventilation and sometimes ECMO (pumping blood through an artificial lung for oxygenation).
Other complications include septic shock, acute kidney injury, and virus-induced cardiac injury. The extensive lung damage also sets the lung up for secondary bacterial pneumonia, which occurs in 10 percent of ICU admissions. (This may also be the case for the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed 50 million people; the fatalities attributed to the viral influenza may be more because of the bacterial pneumonia that followed.)
Pneumonia from any cause severe enough to require ICU admission is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Defined as an infection of one or both lungs, it was already considered an ancient disease in Hippocrates’s time. In 1881, pneumococcus—the main cause of bacterial pneumonia—was finally identified. Over the next century, medical advances and the development of antibiotics made treatment possible, honed by intensivists to reduce the mortality rate to single figures.
In contrast, because few respiratory viruses cause more than mild infection, adult intensive care physicians generally have relatively little experience with viral pneumonia. Yet infection by SARS, H1N1, and MERS can lead to severe pneumonitis, ARDS, and respiratory failure, possibly because of an exaggerated inflammatory reaction. (Corticosteroids, the go-to anti-inflammatory drug, are ineffective and not recommended by the World Health Organization, or WHO.) The lack of effective antivirals and treatment options means viral pneumonia has a high mortality rate.
We do not know how lethal the new coronavirus is. While the single figures of deaths in early January seemed reassuring, the death toll has now climbed to above 3 percent. This may indicate better reporting—or the lethal lag time (the time for those infected to die). Another big unknown is the risk factors that would lead infection in a deadly direction. Certainly, some adults have compromised immune systems due to chronic illnesses. Of these, 15 percent have died, with higher fatality rates among older patients and those with co-morbidities of diabetes, hypertension, or coronary artery disease. However, most patients with severe illness were healthy to begin with, including a 30-year-old man who recently died.
Even trickier than treatment is detecting the virus. In quarantined Wuhan, dozens of fever clinics are singling out anyone with a fever of 99.1 degrees Fahrenheit or above—the cardinal sign for 98 percent of pneumonia cases—and then interviewing them about possible exposure to the coronavirus. In theory, this sounds reasonable.
In practice, it is the screening from hell. Early symptoms of fever and cough are clinically indistinguishable from the usual winter suspects, such as influenza, while fever is an undifferentiated sign, common to hundreds of noninfective diseases from allergies to arthritis. Even pregnancy elevates body temperature.
Because 110,000 people (about 1 percent of the population) in Wuhan might have a febrile illness at any given time, clinics, hospitals, and medical personnel are overwhelmed, short on lab tests and personal protective equipment. And as all those with a fever are detained until lab tests are back, nosocomial infection—transmission of disease in crowded clinics—becomes more likely.
Exit and entry screenings at international airports have been successful in picking up cases in Thailand and South Korea but have missed cases still incubating in the United States and Australia that were later detected in hospital after symptoms manifested.
More worrying is that several cases have been identified without a fever. This includes detection of coronavirus in a 10-year-old girl who exhibited no symptoms at all. If the coronavirus can be spread before symptoms appear, it will greatly complicate screening efforts even beyond the inadequacies of the fever test.
One puzzling aspect so far is the thankful lack of child victims. Usually, children, with less developed immune systems than adults, come down with one illness after another. A particularly severe example is RSV viral pneumonia, which results in an estimated 118,200 child deaths annually. (Adults are not seriously affected.)
Yet few children have yet been reported with coronavirus symptoms. That does not mean that no children have been infected. A similar pattern of benign disease in children, with increasing severity and mortality with age, was seen in SARS and MERS. SARS had a mortality rate averaging 10 percent. Yet no children, and just 1 percent of youths under 24, died, while those older than 50 had a 65 percent risk of dying. Is being an adult a risk factor per se? If so, what is it about childhood that confers protection? It may be the nonspecific effects of live vaccines such as for measles and rubella, which already have been found to provide protection from diseases beyond their immediate target. That may also explain why more men than women have been infected by the coronavirus, because women routinely are given a rubella vaccine booster in their teens to guard against the dangers of having rubella while pregnant. While we wait for an accelerated coronavirus vaccine to be ready, could innate immunity in adults be boosted by giving measles vaccines?
The virus itself is not the only risk. Fewer than half the patients hospitalized so far for the coronavirus ended up having the underlying disease. As hundreds more cases, many of them likely to be false positives, are picked up during aggressive screening, fewer patients can receive adequate support care. This compounds the clinical and ethical burden on medics working 24-hour shifts, working alongside colleagues who then become patients and living in hospitals because they are unwilling to risk infecting their families by going home. The risk of hospitals themselves becoming sites of infection is considerable: In March 2003, it was the infection of scores of medical staff that led the WHO to declare a global alert for SARS. This time, while only 16 medics are reported to have been infected, this is a likely underestimate—and the first case of a doctor dying from the virus has just been reported.
Fever clinics and screening are an exercise in clinical insanity, attempting to discern corona patients from every other common winter illness. Because there is no rapid diagnostic test, screening has focused on whether people have a fever, quickly overwhelming medical facilities until more time-consuming laboratory tests can be performed. Moreover, if nonsymptomatic people can spread the coronavirus, the focus on symptoms may be causing dangerous oversights.
The most powerful measures may be public education about the best ways to avoid infection, such as avoiding physical contact with people known to be infected, and to minimize spread from unidentified infections, wearing masks and hand hygiene. China is taking these measures, with public health information broadcast through multiple means, from state-run television to the village loudspeakers that usually blare propaganda. These steps can protect everyone, including families as they care for members who come down with typical flulike symptoms and may not seem to require more intensive treatment for several days. A more targeted approach can also ensure that medical facilities can focus on the people who really need intensive care rather than the far greater numbers who may simply have a fever but are kept in effective detention until laboratory tests can clear them.
Any new deadly pathogen inevitably gives rise to panic. But experience with other epidemics has shown us that a targeted approach can contain and arrest the spread of a virus—even more effectively than sweeping quarantines.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-27--What’s Inside Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Trump touts his Middle East peace plan despite Palestinian opposition , Britain makes a decision over whether it will let Chinese firm Huawei deploy 5G networks in the country , and the Wuhan virus rattles global markets .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
U.S. President Donald Trump will unveil his long-delayed Middle East peace plan at the White House today , outlining the proposal in a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .
The announcement comes as both Netanyahu and his political rival , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials are hoping that their joint support could give the plan some momentum .
In Washington on Monday , Trump said the plan “ makes a lot of sense for everybody.
” But Palestinian leaders , who have already rejected Trump ’ s plan , doubt it : They fear it will make their push for an independent state to include the West Bank , Gaza , and East Jerusalem impossible .
The Palestinians were not invited to the White House this week and refused to engage with the Trump administration after it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What ’ s in Trump ’ s peace plan ?
Trump has so far provided few details of the proposal , particularly whether or not it allows Israeli annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank—as Netanyahu threatened before the country ’ s September elections .
Israeli reports have suggested the plan would allow annexation of a large part of the West Bank , including most of the Jewish settlements there .
Will the deal boost Netanyahu ?
Today ’ s press conference comes amid Netanyahu ’ s third reelection campaign in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ charges .
Many analysts say the timing could be the point .
In addition to portraying Trump ’ s peace plan as a “ once in a lifetime offer , ” Netanyahu can also distract Israelis ’ attention from a vote being held today on his immunity from prosecution , Joshua Mitnick reports for FP .
Will Britain let in Huawei ?
Britain ’ s National Security Council will decide today if it will allow the Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei to build parts of its 5G wireless networks—a move that could affect its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington is pushing its allies not to cooperate with the company over fears that China could use the technology for espionage .
That puts Britain in an awkward position—caught between the United States and China as it prepares to leave the European Union .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated on Monday that he would aim for a compromise that would allow Huawei to provide equipment , with restrictions .
Global markets rattled by Wuhan virus .
Stocks fell on Monday and China ’ s yuan reached its lowest level this year on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wuhan virus could harm the world ’ s second biggest economy after China extended the Lunar New Year holiday to prevent contagion .
On Monday , Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Wuhan , where he promised reinforcements for the health system , which has been overburdened by the rapidly spreading virus .
Meanwhile , countries around the world are evacuating citizens from Hubei province—the center of the outbreak .
Trump ’ s defense wraps up .
Trump ’ s defense team will conclude arguments today in the president ’ s impeachment trial in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the proceedings were shaken up by new revelations from ex-National Security Advisor John Bolton ’ s upcoming book , in which he claims that Trump told him last August he wanted to continue withholding military aid to push Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden .
( Trump denies the claims . )
Now , pressure is rising on Republican senators to vote on Friday to allow key witnesses , including Bolton , to testify before the Senate .
Syria ’ s Idlib offensive .
Russian-backed Syrian government forces are nearing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recapture some of the last rebel-held territory in the country ’ s northwest , pushing thousands of civilians to flee toward the Turkish border .
Residents fear repercussions if their towns are recaptured .
Turkey already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees .
Israel ’ s female candidates .
As Israel prepares for its third election in a year in March , the most striking casualty of its political dysfunction appears to be its female candidates .
Though Israel was once notable for having a large number of women in political leadership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a significant downward trend , Carmiel Arbit writes in FP .
Heavy rains in Brazil .
Brazil is bracing for more rain , after floods and landslides killed at least 54 people in the states of Minas Gerais , Espirito Santo , and Rio de Janeiro over the weekend .
More than 30,000 people have been displaced .
The city of Belo Horizonte , with more than 6 million people in its metropolitan area , is expected to be hit hard over the next few days .
U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in September , has made enlarging the Navy a key focus—something that puzzles observers .
He and Trump support expanding the U.S. fleet to 355 ships , as shown below .
But the Navy leadership doesn ’ t fully back the plan , which stands to make the U.S. shipbuilding industry billions of dollars , as FP ’ s Lara Seligman reports .
A British court is currently hearing the case of a plot to steal a copy of the Magna Carta from Salisbury Cathedral in 2018 .
The suspect , 47-year-old Mark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s fire alarm to create confusion and then tried to break the historic document ’ s glass display case .
He was tackled by the cathedral ’ s building inspector and a pair of American tourists .
In his police statement , Royden seemed to cast doubt the document ’ s authenticity .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Trump touts his Middle East peace plan despite Palestinian opposition, Britain makes a decision over whether it will let Chinese firm Huawei deploy 5G networks in the country, and the Wuhan virus rattles global markets.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Trump touts his Middle East peace plan despite Palestinian opposition, Britain makes a decision over whether it will let Chinese firm Huawei deploy 5G networks in the country, and the Wuhan virus rattles global markets.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Trump and Netanyahu to Present Middle East Peace Plan
U.S. President Donald Trump will unveil his long-delayed Middle East peace plan at the White House today, outlining the proposal in a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The announcement comes as both Netanyahu and his political rival, Benny Gantz, visit Washington. U.S. officials are hoping that their joint support could give the plan some momentum. In Washington on Monday, Trump said the plan “makes a lot of sense for everybody.”
But Palestinian leaders, who have already rejected Trump’s plan, doubt it: They fear it will make their push for an independent state to include the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem impossible. The Palestinians were not invited to the White House this week and refused to engage with the Trump administration after it recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
What’s in Trump’s peace plan? Trump has so far provided few details of the proposal, particularly whether or not it allows Israeli annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank—as Netanyahu threatened before the country’s September elections. Israeli reports have suggested the plan would allow annexation of a large part of the West Bank, including most of the Jewish settlements there.
Will the deal boost Netanyahu? Today’s press conference comes amid Netanyahu’s third reelection campaign in a year and his fight against corruption charges. Many analysts say the timing could be the point. In addition to portraying Trump’s peace plan as a “once in a lifetime offer,” Netanyahu can also distract Israelis’ attention from a vote being held today on his immunity from prosecution, Joshua Mitnick reports for FP.
What We’re Following Today
Will Britain let in Huawei? Britain’s National Security Council will decide today if it will allow the Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei to build parts of its 5G wireless networks—a move that could affect its diplomatic relations with the United States. Washington is pushing its allies not to cooperate with the company over fears that China could use the technology for espionage. That puts Britain in an awkward position—caught between the United States and China as it prepares to leave the European Union. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated on Monday that he would aim for a compromise that would allow Huawei to provide equipment, with restrictions.
Global markets rattled by Wuhan virus. Stocks fell on Monday and China’s yuan reached its lowest level this year on Monday on investors’ fears that the Wuhan virus could harm the world’s second biggest economy after China extended the Lunar New Year holiday to prevent contagion. On Monday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Wuhan, where he promised reinforcements for the health system, which has been overburdened by the rapidly spreading virus. Meanwhile, countries around the world are evacuating citizens from Hubei province—the center of the outbreak.
Trump’s defense wraps up. Trump’s defense team will conclude arguments today in the president’s impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate. On Monday, the proceedings were shaken up by new revelations from ex-National Security Advisor John Bolton’s upcoming book, in which he claims that Trump told him last August he wanted to continue withholding military aid to push Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. (Trump denies the claims.) Now, pressure is rising on Republican senators to vote on Friday to allow key witnesses, including Bolton, to testify before the Senate.
Keep an Eye On
Syria’s Idlib offensive. Russian-backed Syrian government forces are nearing the city of Idlib in the drive to recapture some of the last rebel-held territory in the country’s northwest, pushing thousands of civilians to flee toward the Turkish border. Residents fear repercussions if their towns are recaptured. Turkey already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees.
Israel’s female candidates. As Israel prepares for its third election in a year in March, the most striking casualty of its political dysfunction appears to be its female candidates. Though Israel was once notable for having a large number of women in political leadership roles, the last year has seen a significant downward trend, Carmiel Arbit writes in FP.
Heavy rains in Brazil. Brazil is bracing for more rain, after floods and landslides killed at least 54 people in the states of Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro over the weekend. More than 30,000 people have been displaced. The city of Belo Horizonte, with more than 6 million people in its metropolitan area, is expected to be hit hard over the next few days.
A Plan to Grow the U.S. Navy
U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, who quietly took over in September, has made enlarging the Navy a key focus—something that puzzles observers. He and Trump support expanding the U.S. fleet to 355 ships, as shown below. But the Navy leadership doesn’t fully back the plan, which stands to make the U.S. shipbuilding industry billions of dollars, as FP’s Lara Seligman reports.
355 Ships by 2034
Note: ship images are iconic, not representative or to scale. Source: U.S. Navy
Odds and Ends
A British court is currently hearing the case of a plot to steal a copy of the Magna Carta from Salisbury Cathedral in 2018. The suspect, 47-year-old Mark Royden, allegedly set off the cathedral’s fire alarm to create confusion and then tried to break the historic document’s glass display case. He was tackled by the cathedral’s building inspector and a pair of American tourists. In his police statement, Royden seemed to cast doubt the document’s authenticity.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-28--Trump, Netanyahu Turn White House Into Election Campaign Stop

American and Israeli leaders have tried to help one another win elections in the past .
But U.S. President Donald Trump took it to a new level Tuesday , turning a White House Middle East peace ceremony into a reelection prop for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and himself .
On the same day Netanyahu was formally indicted on bribery charges back in Israel , Trump tried to throw him a lifeline , announcing his long-awaited Middle East peace plan—complete with fresh territorial giveaways—with the Israeli leader at his side .
Netanyahu returned the favor , calling Trump , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trial , “ the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.
” Israel , Netanyahu said , owes Trump and his chief negotiator and son-in-law , Jared Kushner , “ an eternal debt of gratitude.
” The new 181-page plan—titled “ Peace to Prosperity : A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People ” —imposed few painful demands on Israel while allowing it to annex strategic occupied land in the West Bank .
Perhaps even more significantly , the White House plan would essentially discard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ final political settlement would be roughly based on the borders between Israel and its Arab neighbors in 1967 , before Israel claimed new lands in a war with its Arab neighbors .
For their part , the Palestinians were promised $ 50 billion in international investment if they agreed to Trump ’ s deal , which requires them to recognize Israel as a Jewish state , accept limited Palestinian sovereignty , and pass a series of laws aimed at isolating Hamas and the Islamic Jihad and ending the practice of providing financial compensation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ militants .
“ A realistic solution would give the Palestinians all the power to govern themselves but not the powers to threaten Israel , ” the plan states .
“ This necessarily entails the limitations of certain sovereign powers in the Palestinians areas … such as maintenance of Israeli security responsibility and Israeli control of the airspace west of the Jordan River.
” But almost immediately , Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas slapped down the plan in a televised address from Ramallah in the West Bank .
“ I say to Trump and Netanyahu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All our rights are not for sale and are not for bargain .
And your deal , the conspiracy , will not pass , ” he said .
Trump used the White House event to make his case to his base , including evangelical Christian supporters of Israel .
“ As everyone knows , I have done a lot for Israel : moving the United States Embassy to Jerusalem , recognizing the Golan Heights , and frankly , perhaps most importantly , getting out of the terrible Iran nuclear deal.
” One wildcard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other Arab states .
Trump ’ s envoys on Middle East peace , Kushner and Jason Greenblatt , have spent years privately pushing Gulf Arab states and other countries in the region , notably Jordan , to support their long-delayed plan .
On the day of the ceremony , ambassadors from Bahrain , Oman , and the United Arab Emirates attended , signaling at least some regional buy-in .
But other ambassadors who were invited , including those from Jordan , Egypt , and Saudi Arabia , were noticeably absent , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi issued a carefully crafted statement on Tuesday , reaffirming support for a two-state solution .
“ Jordan supports every genuine effort aimed at achieving just and comprehensive peace that people will accept , ” he said , stressing the urgency of launching serious and direct negotiations that solve all final-status issues within a comprehensive solution .
The European Union ’ s foreign-policy chief , Josep Borrell , issued a cautious statement , saying that the European alliance would “ study and assess ” the Trump plan—but only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and united commitment to a negotiated and viable two-state solution … respecting all relevant U.N. resolutions and internationally agreed parameters.
” Kushner is expected to brief foreign ambassadors in Washington at the State Department on Wednesday , a U.S. official familiar with the matter said .
But in an interview with CNN , Kushner took a poke at the Palestinian leadership .
“ It ’ s a big opportunity for the Palestinians , ” he said .
“ They have a perfect track record of blowing every opportunity they ’ ve had in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fellow at the Wilson Center who advised multiple U.S. secretaries of state on the Middle East , said the president ’ s plan essentially undermines the policies of the three previous U.S. presidents and is likely to hammer the last nail in the coffin of the effort to create a viable Palestinian state .
Miller said he once tried to warn Kushner that he couldn ’ t fix the Middle East conflict but that “ he could make it worse.
” In fairness , he said , “ Donald Trump inherited a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a two-state solution that was on life support .
“ He may well bury it on his watch.
” But Miller suggested the plan would serve as a green light to the Israeli government to formally move to annex parts of the West Bank , which will likely worsen , not resolve , the standoff between Israelis and Palestinians .
Indeed , Israeli officials said later that Netanyahu would call for a vote in his weekly cabinet meeting Sunday on a proposal to annex 30 percent of the West Bank .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do with peace , ” said Hussein Ibish , a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington .
“ Trump is facing impeachment right now and so wants to appear statesmanlike and to secure support from his evangelical base , and Netanyahu is facing an indictment and trying to stay out of jail.
” Dan Arbell , a former senior Israeli diplomat and scholar at American University , said : “ To me , it seems like an attempt by the administration to help Netanyahu in the polls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not the first time that U.S. leaders have appeared to play a role in Israeli politics .
In 1996 , President Bill Clinton organized a peace summit shortly before an Israeli election in an attempt to boost support for Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres .
That bid failed , and Netanyahu eked out a win against Peres .
Clinton ’ s gambit “ left a bitter taste in the mouth of Netanyahu , ” according to Arbell .
In 2012 , Netanyahu faced allegations of offering political support to an old @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in order to beat incumbent President Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential election .
A few years later , Netanyahu accused another Democratic president of meddling in Israeli politics .
In 2015 , the Israeli leader accused the Obama administration of tacitly supporting organizations in Israel that would boost voter turnout for left-wing parties , underscoring a poisonous relationship between the two leaders .
The White House pageantry contrasted sharply with the more solemn events underway in the U.S. Senate .
Trump is facing the prospect of a prolonged impeachment trial , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former National Security Advisor John Bolton , to testify .
Even as Trump and Netanyahu exchanged praise , Trump ’ s legal defense team presented its third and final day of opening arguments .
Several Republican lawmakers attending the White House event , including Sens .
James Risch , the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee , and Ted Cruz , had to leave early to attend the impeachment hearing .
Israel ’ s political divides are deeply entrenched , as the country faces its third election in less than a year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House ceremony would have on Netanyahu ’ s political fate .
“ This is an off-the-charts gift to Netanyahu , ” Ibish said .
“ I think it will be enough to get him over the line.
” But Arbell said he doubted the release of the White House ’ s plan would help move voters on the left and center-left into Netanyahu ’ s camp .
The plan unveiled by Trump would recognize Israel ’ s right to keep occupied lands in the Jordan Valley and have full control of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would establish a joint committee to translate the “ conceptual map ” detailing the state of Israel and Jerusalem into a more comprehensive one .
The plan would guarantee that Israel is subjected to no “ incremental security risks ” and that no Israelis or Palestinians would be required to leave their homes as a result of the deal .
The Palestinians would be offered the promise of some $ 50 billion in international investment , which Trump claimed would create 1 million jobs and end the Palestinians dependence on “ charity and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a four-year freeze on new Israeli settlement activity and identifies Jerusalem as Israel ’ s capital and a Palestinian capital in neighborhoods in East Jerusalem .
Trump said he wrote Tuesday to the Palestinian president explaining that Palestinians would be given a four-year deadline to consider the plan .
During that period , the territory reserved for the Palestinian state would remain undeveloped .
It remained unclear what would happen if the Palestinians refused .
If the Palestinians embrace the plan , Trump has pledged to open up a U.S. Embassy in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I want you to know that if you choose the path to peace , America and many other countries … will be there to help you in so many different ways .
“ Your response to this historic opportunity will show the world to what extent you are ready to lead the Palestinian people to statehood .
”

American and Israeli leaders have tried to help one another win elections in the past. But U.S. President Donald Trump took it to a new level Tuesday, turning a White House Middle East peace ceremony into a reelection prop for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and himself.
American and Israeli leaders have tried to help one another win elections in the past. But U.S. President Donald Trump took it to a new level Tuesday, turning a White House Middle East peace ceremony into a reelection prop for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and himself.
On the same day Netanyahu was formally indicted on bribery charges back in Israel, Trump tried to throw him a lifeline, announcing his long-awaited Middle East peace plan—complete with fresh territorial giveaways—with the Israeli leader at his side.
Netanyahu returned the favor, calling Trump, who is in the grip of an impeachment trial, “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.” Israel, Netanyahu said, owes Trump and his chief negotiator and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, “an eternal debt of gratitude.”
Netanyahu’s gratefulness was understandable.
The new 181-page plan—titled “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People”—imposed few painful demands on Israel while allowing it to annex strategic occupied land in the West Bank.
Perhaps even more significantly, the White House plan would essentially discard a decadeslong U.S. policy consensus that a final political settlement would be roughly based on the borders between Israel and its Arab neighbors in 1967, before Israel claimed new lands in a war with its Arab neighbors.
Trump’s 181-page Middle East peace plan includes maps delineating the final borders of Israel and the future Palestinian state. The first map shows what Israel would look like after it annexed most Jewish settlements in the West Bank and a large swatch of eastern territory known as the Jordan Valley. In the second map, the Palestinian state is made up of discrete territorial blocs connected by highways and tunnels. The state would include two areas of land south of the Gaza Strip that currently belong to Israel.
For their part, the Palestinians were promised $50 billion in international investment if they agreed to Trump’s deal, which requires them to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, accept limited Palestinian sovereignty, and pass a series of laws aimed at isolating Hamas and the Islamic Jihad and ending the practice of providing financial compensation to the families of jailed or dead militants.
“A realistic solution would give the Palestinians all the power to govern themselves but not the powers to threaten Israel,” the plan states. “This necessarily entails the limitations of certain sovereign powers in the Palestinians areas … such as maintenance of Israeli security responsibility and Israeli control of the airspace west of the Jordan River.”
But almost immediately, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas slapped down the plan in a televised address from Ramallah in the West Bank. “I say to Trump and Netanyahu: Jerusalem is not for sale. All our rights are not for sale and are not for bargain. And your deal, the conspiracy, will not pass,” he said.
Trump used the White House event to make his case to his base, including evangelical Christian supporters of Israel. “As everyone knows, I have done a lot for Israel: moving the United States Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights, and frankly, perhaps most importantly, getting out of the terrible Iran nuclear deal.”
One wildcard is what the reaction will be from other Arab states. Trump’s envoys on Middle East peace, Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, have spent years privately pushing Gulf Arab states and other countries in the region, notably Jordan, to support their long-delayed plan.
On the day of the ceremony, ambassadors from Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates attended, signaling at least some regional buy-in. But other ambassadors who were invited, including those from Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, were noticeably absent, according to a U.S. official involved with the planning.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi issued a carefully crafted statement on Tuesday, reaffirming support for a two-state solution. “Jordan supports every genuine effort aimed at achieving just and comprehensive peace that people will accept,” he said, stressing the urgency of launching serious and direct negotiations that solve all final-status issues within a comprehensive solution.
The European Union’s foreign-policy chief, Josep Borrell, issued a cautious statement, saying that the European alliance would “study and assess” the Trump plan—but only on the basis of its “firm and united commitment to a negotiated and viable two-state solution … respecting all relevant U.N. resolutions and internationally agreed parameters.”
Kushner is expected to brief foreign ambassadors in Washington at the State Department on Wednesday, a U.S. official familiar with the matter said. But in an interview with CNN, Kushner took a poke at the Palestinian leadership. “It’s a big opportunity for the Palestinians,” he said. “They have a perfect track record of blowing every opportunity they’ve had in the past.”
Aaron David Miller, a fellow at the Wilson Center who advised multiple U.S. secretaries of state on the Middle East, said the president’s plan essentially undermines the policies of the three previous U.S. presidents and is likely to hammer the last nail in the coffin of the effort to create a viable Palestinian state.
Miller said he once tried to warn Kushner that he couldn’t fix the Middle East conflict but that “he could make it worse.” In fairness, he said, “Donald Trump inherited a peace process that was all but dead and a two-state solution that was on life support.
“He may well bury it on his watch.”
But Miller suggested the plan would serve as a green light to the Israeli government to formally move to annex parts of the West Bank, which will likely worsen, not resolve, the standoff between Israelis and Palestinians.
Indeed, Israeli officials said later that Netanyahu would call for a vote in his weekly cabinet meeting Sunday on a proposal to annex 30 percent of the West Bank.
“This is a spectacle that has nothing to do with peace,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Trump is facing impeachment right now and so wants to appear statesmanlike and to secure support from his evangelical base, and Netanyahu is facing an indictment and trying to stay out of jail.”
Dan Arbell, a former senior Israeli diplomat and scholar at American University, said: “To me, it seems like an attempt by the administration to help Netanyahu in the polls, give him a boost.”
It’s not the first time that U.S. leaders have appeared to play a role in Israeli politics. In 1996, President Bill Clinton organized a peace summit shortly before an Israeli election in an attempt to boost support for Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres. That bid failed, and Netanyahu eked out a win against Peres.
Clinton’s gambit “left a bitter taste in the mouth of Netanyahu,” according to Arbell. In 2012, Netanyahu faced allegations of offering political support to an old friend, Republican candidate Mitt Romney, in order to beat incumbent President Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential election. A few years later, Netanyahu accused another Democratic president of meddling in Israeli politics. In 2015, the Israeli leader accused the Obama administration of tacitly supporting organizations in Israel that would boost voter turnout for left-wing parties, underscoring a poisonous relationship between the two leaders.
The White House pageantry contrasted sharply with the more solemn events underway in the U.S. Senate. Trump is facing the prospect of a prolonged impeachment trial, as calls mount for government witnesses, including former National Security Advisor John Bolton, to testify. Even as Trump and Netanyahu exchanged praise, Trump’s legal defense team presented its third and final day of opening arguments.
Several Republican lawmakers attending the White House event, including Sens. James Risch, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Ted Cruz, had to leave early to attend the impeachment hearing.
Israel’s political divides are deeply entrenched, as the country faces its third election in less than a year. Analysts were divided over the impact the White House ceremony would have on Netanyahu’s political fate.
“This is an off-the-charts gift to Netanyahu,” Ibish said. “I think it will be enough to get him over the line.”
But Arbell said he doubted the release of the White House’s plan would help move voters on the left and center-left into Netanyahu’s camp.
The plan unveiled by Trump would recognize Israel’s right to keep occupied lands in the Jordan Valley and have full control of Jerusalem. The United States and Israel would establish a joint committee to translate the “conceptual map” detailing the state of Israel and Jerusalem into a more comprehensive one. The plan would guarantee that Israel is subjected to no “incremental security risks” and that no Israelis or Palestinians would be required to leave their homes as a result of the deal.
The Palestinians would be offered the promise of some $50 billion in international investment, which Trump claimed would create 1 million jobs and end the Palestinians dependence on “charity and foreign aid.”
The plan also calls for a four-year freeze on new Israeli settlement activity and identifies Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and a Palestinian capital in neighborhoods in East Jerusalem.
Trump said he wrote Tuesday to the Palestinian president explaining that Palestinians would be given a four-year deadline to consider the plan. During that period, the territory reserved for the Palestinian state would remain undeveloped. It remained unclear what would happen if the Palestinians refused.
If the Palestinians embrace the plan, Trump has pledged to open up a U.S. Embassy in East Jerusalem.
“President Abbas, I want you to know that if you choose the path to peace, America and many other countries … will be there to help you in so many different ways.
“Your response to this historic opportunity will show the world to what extent you are ready to lead the Palestinian people to statehood.”