foreignpolicy--2020-08-28--Is Trump Touting His Diplomatic Achievements to Get Reelected?

Is Trump Touting His Diplomatic Achievements to Get Reelected ?
Matthew Kroenig : Hey , Emma !
How are you ?
I ’ m sleepy .
I ’ m not used to staying up until 11 p.m. every night to watch television , but I didn ’ t want to miss the Democratic and Republican national conventions .
Emma Ashford : If I wanted to stay awake , I ’ m not sure I ’ d watch these speeches !
Conventions are useful for political parties to present their message , but you rarely get any concrete policy announcements .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ It has been light on policy , and even lighter still on foreign policy .
Joe Biden and the Democrats understandably focused more on COVID-19 , the economy , and race .
There were , however , several speeches devoted to foreign policy .
Former Secretaries of State Colin Powell and John Kerry spoke on behalf of Biden .
And current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.N .
Ambassador Nikki Haley gave speeches at the RNC .
They were all fine for what they were .
I found the Pompeo and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I didn ’ t find any of the speeches particularly revelatory , though I guess it was notable that Powell once again endorsed the Democratic candidate rather than the Republican .
The big problem , however , was Pompeo ’ s speech .
It might have been illegal , it was certainly a violation of the norm that secretaries of state are above politics , and it was an impressively tasteless use of government resources for campaign benefit .
Speaking on the roof of his hotel in Jerusalem ?
He couldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tried .
MK : It is certainly out of the norm , but it is hardly the biggest issue facing the country .
I didn ’ t even know this was unusual until this week ’ s controversy .
And , while the secretary of state doesn ’ t usually speak at a convention , a sitting U.N. ambassador , Jeane Kirkpatrick , gave her famous “ Blame America First ” speech at Ronald Reagan ’ s 1984 convention .
And George W. Bush was even criticized in 2004 for not having Condoleezza @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
During that convention , the New York Times even called the stated justification about diplomats staying out of partisan politics “ improbable ” and hinted that racism was the real motive .
I guess I can ’ t help but feel like this is a bit of a manufactured crisis .
EA : Fair enough .
I believe the argument is that the secretary of state needs to be nonpartisan to act as America ’ s voice in the world .
With the Trump administration already blowing apart the idea that foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is hardly any worse .
But it does highlight a bigger problem : Trump routinely uses foreign policy for personal and political gain .
Pompeo ’ s speech from Jerusalem was a reminder that Trump moved the embassy there at the urging of evangelical voters and top donors .
Pompeo also highlighted the recent Israel-United Arab Emirates deal , which looks increasingly like a political stunt rather than a real diplomatic achievement .
It ’ s disturbing the extent to which Trump is weaponizing foreign policy to try to ensure reelection .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ tasteless use of government resources for campaign benefit .
Speaking on the roof of his hotel in Jerusalem ?
He couldn ’ t have pandered more to evangelicals if he tried .
MK : Foreign policy is featuring more at the RNC for good reason .
The Pompeo and Haley speeches remind me of the significant foreign-policy wins in this administration : beating the Islamic State , tougher approaches to China and Iran , getting out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty , and providing arms to the Ukrainians .
And , yes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be both a real diplomatic achievement and good for reelection at the same time .
EA : Don ’ t you mean beating the Islamic State ( by finishing up the Obama administration ’ s plan ) , keeping the United States mired in Syria , a failed policy of maximum pressure on Iran , a damaging trade war with China , undermining global arms control , and prolonging the war in the Donbass ?
But I do think the RNC speeches highlighted that Trump ’ s foreign policy is now more coherent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his administration .
Big public spectacles like the UAE-Israel deal , or the North Korea summits , ripping up international deals , imposing sanctions that don ’ t achieve very much , and claiming victory before it ’ s actually achieved .
What Trump hasn ’ t done , though , is follow through on his promise to get America out of foreign wars , even if his son Eric this week claimed that he did .
So Trump ’ s foreign policy is coherent , but it ’ s not what he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DNC side , Powell and Kerry made some good points .
I think it is the case that a Biden administration would seek to repair relations with treaty allies , especially in Europe .
The constant refrain that doesn ’ t resonate , however , is that Biden would stand up to dictators .
Obama and Biden passed on plenty of opportunities to punish autocrats in their eight years of office , from refusing to arm Ukraine in its fight against Vladimir Putin ’ s Russia , to maintaining “ strategic patience ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to backing down from striking Bashar al-Assad for his chemical weapons attacks in Syria .
Why are we supposed to believe that next time will be different ?
EA : In many situations , I think “ standing up to dictators ” is just code for refusing to work through hard problems diplomatically .
It might be satisfying to denounce foreign leaders , but it doesn ’ t actually help achieve foreign-policy goals .
One area where I ’ ll give Trump credit is his willingness to talk to leaders like Kim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Biden will try to out-hawk Trump during the campaign—and make diplomacy harder if he ’ s elected .
MK : Yes .
You had a nice piece this week in the New York Times about your concern that Biden will return to an overly expansive overseas U.S. role .
What ’ s your main worry ?
EA : Thanks .
It was mostly an expression of my frustration .
The Democratic primaries were—for once—full of foreign-policy debate .
There were a range of opinions and great new ideas .
And yet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aiming just for a return to the pre-Trump status quo in foreign policy .
Neither Biden nor his running mate Kamala Harris even mentioned foreign policy in their convention speeches , and when you look at the campaign ’ s top advisors , I worry that a Biden campaign will ignore the opportunity to reorient U.S. foreign policy .
Would you be happy with a return to the status quo ?
Many in Washington would be .
MK : I said it was a nice piece , but I didn ’ t say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Biden administration would continue the United States ’ traditional leadership role , which I think has been good for the world and for the American people for the past 75 years .
But it is not 1945 or 1991 anymore .
The global system needs to be revitalized and adapted for a new era , but U.S. global leadership must remain the central pillar .
EA : “ Leadership ” is a nice word .
It can mean whatever you want it to mean .
For many in Washington , I fear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ everyone else should do what I want.
” I think Biden should listen more to other countries .
But a more important question is how the United States engages with the world .
When I hear Biden say “ return to leadership , ” I worry that he ’ ll do what every U.S. president in the last 30 years has done and focus only on military leadership .
The country is fighting a war on terrorism in over a dozen countries right now , and Biden hasn ’ t even clarified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MK : It would be nice if the terrorists operated in fewer places , but , unfortunately , they are spreading to new areas .
Under pressure in the Middle East , the Islamic State made a conscious decision to move into North Africa , including Mali .
There was a coup there last week ( the second in a decade ) , and I am afraid it might jeopardize U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the country .
EA : We define terrorism too broadly .
If you look at all those places in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Mali to Cameroon to Niger , what you find is militant groups who ’ ve adopted the al Qaeda or Islamic State brand , but who have predominantly local goals .
To put it another way : A lot of these conflicts aren ’ t about America .
They ’ re local affairs .
And Mali is a case in point .
I ’ m certainly no expert on the country , but this is the second military coup in recent years .
The country has a problem with corruption , poverty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m still doubtful that the involvement of Western troops there does much—if anything—to improve the situation .
And it certainly doesn ’ t make Americans at home safer .
MK : What happens in the caliphate doesn ’ t stay in the caliphate .
The lesson from pre-9/11 Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria in the early 2010s is that when these violent extremists groups are given safe havens , they will eventually use the platform to strike against the United States , Europe , and other allies .
The United States , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cooperation with the civilian government in Mali , but the U.S. government has now announced a suspension of military aid in the wake of the coup .
I think it is the right decision , but I hope for a swift return to civilian rule and a continuation of the security relationship .
EA : I think you ’ re making part of my point for me .
If Washington ’ s biggest concern when it comes to Mali isn ’ t the corruption , poor governance , or ailing economy , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maintain its security relationship and fight militants , there ’ s something wrong with the approach .
Continuing to fight an incredibly broadly construed war on terrorism around the world drives the U.S. government to prop up a variety of unsavory leaders who oppress their own people or take questionable steps to maintain their hold on power .
And that ’ s why I ’ m upset about both campaigns this year .
Trump promised to end the wars ; there are now more U.S. troops fighting abroad than in 2016 .
Barack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he invaded Libya and surged troops in Afghanistan .
George W. Bush promised a humble foreign policy , and we all saw how that turned out .
Americans need a campaign that wrestles with how to end the war on terror , so that the country can get out of some of these toxic security relationships .
MK : Propping up unsavory leaders is not nearly as satisfying as bringing them down , which brings us to Belarus .
The opposition to longtime President Aleksandr Lukashenko is much larger and more resilient than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how Putin and the West will respond .
Some are saying that Washington should strike a deal with Putin in which the U.S. government promises that a free Belarus would never be part of NATO or the European Union .
But I think that is not for outsiders to decide right now and that the people of Belarus should have a say .
EA : Lukashenko has certainly been leaning into this debate .
He ’ s trying to bait Putin into supporting him by talking up the threat from NATO and implying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If Washington were willing to say now—categorically—that Belarus could never join NATO , the U.S. government could deny him that tool .
And I think it ’ s rather foolish to suggest that membership in a defensive alliance should be the choice of prospective member states , rather than the existing members .
Of course prospective members are keen to obtain free security !
That doesn ’ t mean it ’ s good for the alliance .
If you take principles of sovereignty and self-government seriously , then a future democratic government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its own foreign-policy orientation .
It is not up to Washington and Moscow to decide over their heads .
MK : Of course existing members would be essential to any decision to expand NATO .
But if you take principles of sovereignty and self-government seriously , then a future democratic government in Belarus should be able to decide its own foreign-policy orientation .
It is not up to Washington and Moscow to decide over the heads of the Belarusian people .
EA : This is what got us in trouble before .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choose whether to join NATO sounded good in the idealistic 1990s , but it ended up producing today ’ s disastrous relationship with Russia .
And in Ukraine , Sam Charap and Tim Colton have argued that it created the impression that states can ’ t stay neutral .
If states think they have to choose , it can cause domestic turmoil and even conflict .
By far , the best thing we can do in the case of Belarus is stay out of it so that it doesn ’ t become another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I strongly disagree .
NATO expansion has been a major achievement .
While I am sure Putin is angered that Russia can not lord it over his neighbors anymore , appeasing him with a sphere of influence is not good for U.S. interests or for the people in Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics .
And while NATO might not expand anytime soon , my workload is about to .
The unofficial end of summer might not be until Monday , but I have to teach my first classes at Georgetown this afternoon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complete .
Until next time ?
EA : Don ’ t let the undergrads party too much , or we ’ ll all be back in lockdown soon !

Matthew Kroenig: Hey, Emma! How are you? I’m sleepy. I’m not used to staying up until 11 p.m. every night to watch television, but I didn’t want to miss the Democratic and Republican national conventions.
Matthew Kroenig: Hey, Emma! How are you? I’m sleepy. I’m not used to staying up until 11 p.m. every night to watch television, but I didn’t want to miss the Democratic and Republican national conventions.
Emma Ashford: If I wanted to stay awake, I’m not sure I’d watch these speeches! Conventions are useful for political parties to present their message, but you rarely get any concrete policy announcements. Did anyone impress you?
MK: It has been light on policy, and even lighter still on foreign policy. Joe Biden and the Democrats understandably focused more on COVID-19, the economy, and race.
There were, however, several speeches devoted to foreign policy. Former Secretaries of State Colin Powell and John Kerry spoke on behalf of Biden. And current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley gave speeches at the RNC. They were all fine for what they were. I found the Pompeo and Haley speeches most persuasive.
Emma Ashford is a research fellow at the Cato Institute.
Matthew Kroenig is deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center. They debate foreign policy and the 2020 election
EA: I didn’t find any of the speeches particularly revelatory, though I guess it was notable that Powell once again endorsed the Democratic candidate rather than the Republican.
The big problem, however, was Pompeo’s speech. It might have been illegal, it was certainly a violation of the norm that secretaries of state are above politics, and it was an impressively tasteless use of government resources for campaign benefit. Speaking on the roof of his hotel in Jerusalem? He couldn’t have pandered more to evangelicals if he tried.
MK: It is certainly out of the norm, but it is hardly the biggest issue facing the country. I didn’t even know this was unusual until this week’s controversy. And, while the secretary of state doesn’t usually speak at a convention, a sitting U.N. ambassador, Jeane Kirkpatrick, gave her famous “Blame America First” speech at Ronald Reagan’s 1984 convention. And George W. Bush was even criticized in 2004 for not having Condoleezza Rice or Colin Powell on the agenda. During that convention, the New York Times even called the stated justification about diplomats staying out of partisan politics “improbable” and hinted that racism was the real motive. I guess I can’t help but feel like this is a bit of a manufactured crisis.
EA: Fair enough. I believe the argument is that the secretary of state needs to be nonpartisan to act as America’s voice in the world. With the Trump administration already blowing apart the idea that foreign policy should be nonpartisan, though, this is hardly any worse.
But it does highlight a bigger problem: Trump routinely uses foreign policy for personal and political gain. Pompeo’s speech from Jerusalem was a reminder that Trump moved the embassy there at the urging of evangelical voters and top donors. Pompeo also highlighted the recent Israel-United Arab Emirates deal, which looks increasingly like a political stunt rather than a real diplomatic achievement. It’s disturbing the extent to which Trump is weaponizing foreign policy to try to ensure reelection.
Pompeo’s speech was an impressively tasteless use of government resources for campaign benefit. Speaking on the roof of his hotel in Jerusalem? He couldn’t have pandered more to evangelicals if he tried.
MK: Foreign policy is featuring more at the RNC for good reason. The Pompeo and Haley speeches remind me of the significant foreign-policy wins in this administration: beating the Islamic State, tougher approaches to China and Iran, getting out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and providing arms to the Ukrainians. And, yes, the UAE-Israel deal, which can be both a real diplomatic achievement and good for reelection at the same time.
EA: Don’t you mean beating the Islamic State (by finishing up the Obama administration’s plan), keeping the United States mired in Syria, a failed policy of maximum pressure on Iran, a damaging trade war with China, undermining global arms control, and prolonging the war in the Donbass?
But I do think the RNC speeches highlighted that Trump’s foreign policy is now more coherent than it was at the start of his administration. Big public spectacles like the UAE-Israel deal, or the North Korea summits, ripping up international deals, imposing sanctions that don’t achieve very much, and claiming victory before it’s actually achieved.
What Trump hasn’t done, though, is follow through on his promise to get America out of foreign wars, even if his son Eric this week claimed that he did. So Trump’s foreign policy is coherent, but it’s not what he originally promised.
MK: On the DNC side, Powell and Kerry made some good points. I think it is the case that a Biden administration would seek to repair relations with treaty allies, especially in Europe.
The constant refrain that doesn’t resonate, however, is that Biden would stand up to dictators. Obama and Biden passed on plenty of opportunities to punish autocrats in their eight years of office, from refusing to arm Ukraine in its fight against Vladimir Putin’s Russia, to maintaining “strategic patience” with Kim Jong Un in North Korea, to backing down from striking Bashar al-Assad for his chemical weapons attacks in Syria. Why are we supposed to believe that next time will be different?
EA: In many situations, I think “standing up to dictators” is just code for refusing to work through hard problems diplomatically. It might be satisfying to denounce foreign leaders, but it doesn’t actually help achieve foreign-policy goals. One area where I’ll give Trump credit is his willingness to talk to leaders like Kim Jong Un. I’m worried that Biden will try to out-hawk Trump during the campaign—and make diplomacy harder if he’s elected.
MK: Yes. You had a nice piece this week in the New York Times about your concern that Biden will return to an overly expansive overseas U.S. role. What’s your main worry?
EA: Thanks. It was mostly an expression of my frustration. The Democratic primaries were—for once—full of foreign-policy debate. There were a range of opinions and great new ideas. And yet, the Biden campaign appears to be mostly aiming just for a return to the pre-Trump status quo in foreign policy. Neither Biden nor his running mate Kamala Harris even mentioned foreign policy in their convention speeches, and when you look at the campaign’s top advisors, I worry that a Biden campaign will ignore the opportunity to reorient U.S. foreign policy.
Would you be happy with a return to the status quo? Many in Washington would be.
MK: I said it was a nice piece, but I didn’t say I agreed! I would hope that a Biden administration would continue the United States’ traditional leadership role, which I think has been good for the world and for the American people for the past 75 years. But it is not 1945 or 1991 anymore. The global system needs to be revitalized and adapted for a new era, but U.S. global leadership must remain the central pillar.
EA: “Leadership” is a nice word. It can mean whatever you want it to mean. For many in Washington, I fear that “American leadership” actually means “everyone else should do what I want.” I think Biden should listen more to other countries.
But a more important question is how the United States engages with the world. When I hear Biden say “return to leadership,” I worry that he’ll do what every U.S. president in the last 30 years has done and focus only on military leadership. The country is fighting a war on terrorism in over a dozen countries right now, and Biden hasn’t even clarified if he plans to continue that.
MK: It would be nice if the terrorists operated in fewer places, but, unfortunately, they are spreading to new areas. Under pressure in the Middle East, the Islamic State made a conscious decision to move into North Africa, including Mali. There was a coup there last week (the second in a decade), and I am afraid it might jeopardize U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the country.
EA: We define terrorism too broadly. If you look at all those places in Africa where U.S. troops are deploying, from Mali to Cameroon to Niger, what you find is militant groups who’ve adopted the al Qaeda or Islamic State brand, but who have predominantly local goals. To put it another way: A lot of these conflicts aren’t about America. They’re local affairs.
And Mali is a case in point. I’m certainly no expert on the country, but this is the second military coup in recent years. The country has a problem with corruption, poverty, and poor education. I’m still doubtful that the involvement of Western troops there does much—if anything—to improve the situation. And it certainly doesn’t make Americans at home safer.
MK: What happens in the caliphate doesn’t stay in the caliphate. The lesson from pre-9/11 Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria in the early 2010s is that when these violent extremists groups are given safe havens, they will eventually use the platform to strike against the United States, Europe, and other allies.
The United States, the U.N., and France had good counterterrorism cooperation with the civilian government in Mali, but the U.S. government has now announced a suspension of military aid in the wake of the coup. I think it is the right decision, but I hope for a swift return to civilian rule and a continuation of the security relationship.
EA: I think you’re making part of my point for me. If Washington’s biggest concern when it comes to Mali isn’t the corruption, poor governance, or ailing economy, but just that the United States gets to maintain its security relationship and fight militants, there’s something wrong with the approach. Continuing to fight an incredibly broadly construed war on terrorism around the world drives the U.S. government to prop up a variety of unsavory leaders who oppress their own people or take questionable steps to maintain their hold on power.
And that’s why I’m upset about both campaigns this year. Trump promised to end the wars; there are now more U.S. troops fighting abroad than in 2016. Barack Obama promised to end the wars; he invaded Libya and surged troops in Afghanistan. George W. Bush promised a humble foreign policy, and we all saw how that turned out. Americans need a campaign that wrestles with how to end the war on terror, so that the country can get out of some of these toxic security relationships.
MK: Propping up unsavory leaders is not nearly as satisfying as bringing them down, which brings us to Belarus. The opposition to longtime President Aleksandr Lukashenko is much larger and more resilient than many realized, raising big questions about how Putin and the West will respond. Some are saying that Washington should strike a deal with Putin in which the U.S. government promises that a free Belarus would never be part of NATO or the European Union. But I think that is not for outsiders to decide right now and that the people of Belarus should have a say.
EA: Lukashenko has certainly been leaning into this debate. He’s trying to bait Putin into supporting him by talking up the threat from NATO and implying that only he can hold the line. If Washington were willing to say now—categorically—that Belarus could never join NATO, the U.S. government could deny him that tool.
And I think it’s rather foolish to suggest that membership in a defensive alliance should be the choice of prospective member states, rather than the existing members. Of course prospective members are keen to obtain free security! That doesn’t mean it’s good for the alliance.
If you take principles of sovereignty and self-government seriously, then a future democratic government in Belarus should be able to decide its own foreign-policy orientation. It is not up to Washington and Moscow to decide over their heads.
MK: Of course existing members would be essential to any decision to expand NATO. But if you take principles of sovereignty and self-government seriously, then a future democratic government in Belarus should be able to decide its own foreign-policy orientation. It is not up to Washington and Moscow to decide over the heads of the Belarusian people.
EA: This is what got us in trouble before. The assertion that states should be able to choose whether to join NATO sounded good in the idealistic 1990s, but it ended up producing today’s disastrous relationship with Russia. And in Ukraine, Sam Charap and Tim Colton have argued that it created the impression that states can’t stay neutral. If states think they have to choose, it can cause domestic turmoil and even conflict.
By far, the best thing we can do in the case of Belarus is stay out of it so that it doesn’t become another Russia versus NATO dispute.
MK: I strongly disagree. NATO expansion has been a major achievement. While I am sure Putin is angered that Russia cannot lord it over his neighbors anymore, appeasing him with a sphere of influence is not good for U.S. interests or for the people in Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics.
And while NATO might not expand anytime soon, my workload is about to. The unofficial end of summer might not be until Monday, but I have to teach my first classes at Georgetown this afternoon, and my syllabi are not quite complete. Until next time?
EA: Don’t let the undergrads party too much, or we’ll all be back in lockdown soon!


foreignpolicy--2020-08-27--The October Surprise Is Already Here

The October Surprise Is Already Here

The October Surprise Is Already Here During the four days of the Republican National Convention , President Donald Trump and his supporters cast about wildly for new ways to knock down his opponent , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden , who is consistently leading in the polls .
And finally they found one , banking on the latest upsurge in racial protests and violence in response to yet another police shooting of a Black American , which occurred the same week as the RNC .
Their message is : If you think America ’ s a dangerous place now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ No one would be safe in Biden ’ s America , ” Trump said in his acceptance speech Thursday night as he praised the nation ’ s law enforcement officers , saying “ we have to give [ them ] back their power ” and “ we can never allow mob rule ” in “ Democrat-run ” American cities .
“ Your vote will decide whether we protect law-abiding Americans , or whether we give free rein to violent anarchists and agitators and criminals who threaten our citizens , ” Trump said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grounds .
“ Make no mistake .
If you give power to Joe Biden , the radical left will defund police departments , all across America .
They will pass federal legislation to reduce law enforcement nationwide .
They will make every city look like Democrat-run Portland , Oregon , ” where Black Lives Matter protests have snarled the city for weeks .
Vice President Mike Pence hit the same theme hard the night before , seeking to define Biden as a frightening choice for voters on Nov. 3 .
“ Joe Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are leading to unsafe streets and violence in America ’ s cities , ” Pence said on the third night of the convention , and he too repeated the new Republican mantra : “ The hard truth is , you won ’ t be safe in Joe Biden ’ s America.
” The timing of the protests and violence in Kenosha , Wisconsin—a key battleground state—doesn ’ t quite add up yet to an “ October surprise , ” the unforeseen twist of events that some desperate presidents try to introduce as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ final months .
But for Trump the latest violence in an American city appears to have arrived like a malign gift from the political gods .
After a week in which he began his convention by giving prime time to Patricia and Mark McKloskey , the gun-wielding St. Louis couple who took aim at Black Lives Matter protesters in late June—and called them “ Marxist liberal activists ” and “ criminals ” in their speech on Monday—the new protests engulfing an American city are encouraging Trump in his ongoing effort to paint Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further violence .
Biden ’ s policies are “ the most extreme ” of any major party nominee ever , Trump said in his acceptance speech , even though in fact the former vice president has laid out a mostly moderate platform , repeatedly condemned violence in the cities , and does not support defunding the police .
Trump blamed America ’ s current problems , including the nation ’ s pandemic-induced economic distress , on “ the last 47 years ” that the Delaware Democrat was a U.S. senator and vice president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of power and it ’ s Trump who ’ s been in charge for the last four years .
Speaker after speaker at the RNC , including Trump ’ s son Don Jr , declared that the centrist Biden has been captured by Sen. Bernie Sanders , his chief rival in the primaries , and his “ radical left-wing ” politics , which the Republicans suggest is encouraging violence in America ’ s largely Democrat-run cities .
Biden himself said plainly that it ’ s clear Trump thinks he can ride the latest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s rooting for more violence , not less , ” Biden told MSNBC .
One of Trump ’ s chief advisors , outgoing strategist Kellyanne Conway , suggested that Biden ’ s analysis was correct .
“ The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns , the better it is for the very clear choice on who ’ s best on public safety and law and order , ” she said Thursday on Fox News .
Since the George Floyd protests earlier this summer , Trump has lumped together anti-racism protesters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several protest-wracked cities .
On Wednesday Trump tweeted that Wisconsin Gov .
Tony Evers had accepted his offer to send federal law enforcement into Kenosha .
“ These are Democratically led cities and most with Democratic governors , ” said Conway .
“ It ’ s not Donald Trump ’ s watch.
” Never mind that the unresolved tensions between minority communities and law enforcement throughout the nation have worsened on Trump ’ s watch as president , especially since Floyd ’ s killing in late May ; or that the president has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hesitant response to the COVID-19 pandemic , with more than 180,000 Americans dead so far , representing a disproportionate 22 percent of the total number of global deaths .
Trump is now placing himself as the lone barrier to more death and chaos .
Key speakers on Thursday such as Sen. Mitch McConnell , the Senate majority leader , also hammered away at the law-and-order theme .
The Democrats , McConnell said , “ want to defund the police and take away your Second Amendment rights.
” Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying “ all lives matter ” and the violence in American cities is a “ vision of the future under Biden.
” A vote for the Democrat , Giuliani said , “ creates the risk you will bring this lawlessness into your city , into your town , into your suburb.
” Some Democrats are skittish about Biden ’ s vulnerability to the new tack , and whether Trump is doing a better job of defining his opponent rather than the other way around .
“ It could work if the protests remain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mendacity penetrates deeply enough , ” said Matt Bennett of the Third Way , a center-left think tank .
“ The Trump team is simply lying about Biden ’ s ( very appropriate ) response to Kenosha , and it might be tough for the truth to catch up to the lie .
If voters in swing states believe Trump ’ s nonsense about Democrats being too close to Antifa [ a militant anti-fascist group ] to stop the violence , that could have an impact.
” Biden himself was having none of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aware he ’ s president ?
” Biden said in a statement Thursday .
“ These are not images from some imagined ‘ Joe Biden ’ s America ’ in the future .
These are images from Donald Trump ’ s America today .
The violence we ’ re witnessing is happening under Donald Trump .
Not me .
It ’ s getting worse , and we know why.
” Some political experts like Bennett say Biden ’ s response will resonate with a lot of voters .
“ The problem for Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not a challenger ( like Nixon in 1968 ) .
And someone who ran claiming ‘ I alone can fix it ’ could have a tough time claiming that violence on his watch would be worse under his opponent ’ s. ” Trump is especially focused on winning over suburban women , but Bennett said based on focus groups and polling “ women don ’ t think Trump is the solution to unrest like this—they think he ’ s the cause of it.
” Even so , he said , “ This will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign .
It is very hard to battle against an opponent who makes things up out of whole cloth , as John Kerry discovered with the Swift Boaters ” who unfairly attacked his Vietnam War record in the 2004 election .
Under Trump , the Republican Party has not even bothered to adopt a different platform from 2016 , as if he were still running as a challenger , not an incumbent .
The incident in Kenosha , in which Jacob Blake , a Black father , was shot seven times in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get back into his car where his children were sitting , has reopened ugly and unresolved tensions that have simmered since Floyd was suffocated to death on video by a police officer in Minneapolis in May .
And while Trump sought to widen his appeal to Black and Latino Americans during the convention—with several giving speeches supporting him—his campaign appears to be mainly resolving itself around the fear factor in white America .
Most of the Kenosha protests have been peaceful , but on the third night of demonstrations , a 17-year-old @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to guard buildings allegedly fired on protesters with a semi-automatic rifle , killing two and seriously injuring a third .
Some right-wing commentators such as Tucker Carlson of Fox News later appeared to praise the suspect , Kyle Rittenhouse .
“ Are we really surprised that looting and arson accelerated to murder ?
” Carlson said on his show on Wednesday night .
“ How shocked are we that 17-year-olds with rifles decided they had to maintain order when no one else would ?
” The boy was said to be a Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and he had earlier posted a Facebook photo of himself with the “ Blue Lives Matter ” logo .
Right-wing Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar called Rittenhouse ’ s actions “ 100 % justified self defense ” in a tweet , and a former major league baseball player , Aubrey Huff of the Baltimore Orioles , tweeted that “ # KyleRittenhouse is a national treasure.
” He later deleted the tweet .

During the four days of the Republican National Convention, U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters cast about wildly for new ways to knock down his opponent, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who is consistently leading in the polls. And finally they found one, banking on the latest upsurge in protests against racial injustice and violence in response to yet another police shooting of a Black American, which occurred the same week as the RNC.
During the four days of the Republican National Convention, U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters cast about wildly for new ways to knock down his opponent, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who is consistently leading in the polls. And finally they found one, banking on the latest upsurge in protests against racial injustice and violence in response to yet another police shooting of a Black American, which occurred the same week as the RNC.
Their message is: If you think America’s a dangerous place now, just wait until Biden becomes president. “No one would be safe in Biden’s America,” Trump said in his acceptance speech Thursday night as he praised the nation’s law enforcement officers, saying “we have to give [them] back their power” and “we can never allow mob rule” in “Democrat-run” American cities.
“Your vote will decide whether we protect law-abiding Americans, or whether we give free rein to violent anarchists and agitators and criminals who threaten our citizens,” Trump said in his speech on the White House grounds. “Make no mistake. If you give power to Joe Biden, the radical left will defund police departments, all across America. They will pass federal legislation to reduce law enforcement nationwide. They will make every city look like Democrat-run Portland, Oregon,” where Black Lives Matter protests have snarled the city for weeks.
Vice President Mike Pence hit the same theme hard the night before, seeking to define Biden as a frightening choice for voters on Nov. 3. “Joe Biden would double down on the very policies that are leading to unsafe streets and violence in America’s cities,” Pence said on the third night of the convention, and he too repeated the new Republican mantra: “The hard truth is, you won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America.”
The timing of the protests and violence in Kenosha, Wisconsin—a key battleground state—don’t quite add up yet to an “October surprise,” the unforeseen twist of events that some desperate presidents try to introduce as a losing election comes down to its final months. But for Trump, the latest violence in an American city appears to have arrived like a malign gift from the political gods. After a week in which he began his convention by giving prime time to Patricia and Mark McCloskey, the gun-wielding St. Louis couple who took aim at Black Lives Matter protesters in late June—and called the demonstrators “Marxist liberal activists” and “criminals” in their speech on Monday—the new protests engulfing an American city are encouraging Trump in his ongoing effort to paint Biden as a leftist who would only promote further violence. Biden’s policies are “the most extreme” of any major party nominee ever, Trump said in his acceptance speech, even though in fact the former vice president has laid out a mostly moderate platform, repeatedly condemned violence in the cities, and does not support defunding the police.
Trump blamed America’s current problems, including the nation’s pandemic-induced economic distress, on “the last 47 years” that the Delaware Democrat was a U.S. senator and vice president, although Biden’s been out of power and it’s Trump who’s been in charge for the last four years.
Speaker after speaker at the RNC, including Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., declared that the centrist Biden has been captured by Sen. Bernie Sanders, his chief rival in the primaries, and his “radical left-wing” politics, which the Republicans suggest is encouraging violence in America’s largely Democrat-run cities. Biden himself said plainly that it’s clear Trump thinks he can ride the latest unrest to reelection. “He’s rooting for more violence, not less,” Biden told MSNBC.
One of Trump’s chief advisors, outgoing strategist Kellyanne Conway, suggested that Biden’s analysis was correct. “The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who’s best on public safety and law and order,” she said Thursday on Fox News. Since the George Floyd protests earlier this summer, Trump has lumped together anti-racism protesters and rioters, sending federal agents to several protest-wracked cities. On Wednesday, Trump tweeted that Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers had accepted his offer to send federal law enforcement into Kenosha. “These are Democratically led cities and most with Democratic governors,” Conway said. “It’s not Donald Trump’s watch.”
Never mind that the unresolved tensions between minority communities and law enforcement throughout the nation have worsened on Trump’s watch as president, especially since Floyd’s killing in late May, or that the president has been widely criticized for his slow and hesitant response to the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 180,000 Americans dead so far, representing a disproportionate 22 percent of the total number of global deaths. Trump is now placing himself as the lone barrier to more death and chaos.
Key RNC speakers on Thursday such as Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, also hammered away at the law-and-order theme. The Democrats, McConnell said, “want to defund the police and take away your Second Amendment rights.” Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani demonized the Black Lives Matter movement, saying “all lives matter” and the violence in American cities is a “vision of the future under Biden.” A vote for the Democrat, Giuliani said, “creates the risk you will bring this lawlessness into your city, into your town, into your suburb.”
Some Democrats are skittish about Biden’s vulnerability to the new tack, and whether Trump is doing a better job of defining his opponent rather than the other way around. “It could work if the protests remain violent and destructive and Trump’s mendacity penetrates deeply enough,” said Matt Bennett of the Third Way, a center-left think tank. “The Trump team is simply lying about Biden’s (very appropriate) response to Kenosha, and it might be tough for the truth to catch up to the lie. If voters in swing states believe Trump’s nonsense about Democrats being too close to Antifa [a militant anti-fascist movement] to stop the violence, that could have an impact.”
Biden himself was having none of it. “Is Donald Trump even aware he’s president?” Biden said in a statement Thursday. “These are not images from some imagined ‘Joe Biden’s America’ in the future. These are images from Donald Trump’s America today. The violence we’re witnessing is happening under Donald Trump. Not me. It’s getting worse, and we know why.”
Some political experts like Bennett say Biden’s response will resonate with a lot of voters: “The problem for Trump is that he is an incumbent, not a challenger (like Nixon in 1968). And someone who ran claiming ‘I alone can fix it’ could have a tough time claiming that violence on his watch would be worse under his opponent’s.” Trump is especially focused on winning over suburban women, but Bennett said based on focus groups and polling “women don’t think Trump is the solution to unrest like this—they think he’s the cause of it.”
Even so, he said, “This will be a real test for the Biden campaign. It is very hard to battle against an opponent who makes things up out of whole cloth, as John Kerry discovered with the Swift Boaters” who unfairly attacked his Vietnam War record in the 2004 election. Under Trump, the Republican Party has not even bothered to adopt a different platform from 2016, as if he were still running as a challenger, not an incumbent.
The incident in Kenosha, in which Jacob Blake, a Black father, was shot seven times in the back as he fled police and tried to get back into his car where his children were sitting, has reopened ugly and unresolved tensions that have simmered since Floyd was suffocated to death on video by a police officer in Minneapolis in May. And while Trump sought to widen his appeal to Black and Latino Americans during the convention—with several giving speeches supporting him—his campaign appears to be mainly resolving itself around the fear factor in white America.
Most of the Kenosha protests have been peaceful, and the highest-profile incident of violence has come from the other side: On the third night of demonstrations, a 17-year-old white boy who claimed he was there to guard buildings allegedly fired on protesters with a semi-automatic rifle, killing two and seriously injuring a third. Some right-wing commentators such as Tucker Carlson of Fox News later appeared to praise the suspect, Kyle Rittenhouse. “Are we really surprised that looting and arson accelerated to murder?” Carlson said on his show on Wednesday night. “How shocked are we that 17-year-olds with rifles decided they had to maintain order when no one else would?”
The boy was said to be a Trump supporter and an admirer of police officers, and he had earlier posted a Facebook photo of himself with the “Blue Lives Matter” logo. Right-wing Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar called Rittenhouse’s actions “100% justified self defense” in a tweet, and a former major league baseball player, Aubrey Huff of the Baltimore Orioles, tweeted that “#KyleRittenhouse is a national treasure.” He later deleted the tweet.
Correction, Aug. 28, 2020: The gun-wielding St. Louis couple who took aim at Black Lives Matter protesters in late June are Mark and Patricia McCloskey. A previous version of this article contained a misspelling of their surname.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-28--Africa Is Officially Polio-Free

Africa Is Officially Polio-Free

Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : Africa is certified polio-free—a significant global milestone , Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens to deploy a reserve police force in Belarus , and how Mark Zuckerberg stoked fears in Washington over TikTok .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , please sign up here .
Africa was certified free of wild polio this week , a significant milestone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus , the director-general of the World Health Organization ( WHO ) , described the declaration as “ one of the greatest public health achievements of our time.
” Since 1988 , when WHO launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative , wild polio infections have been reduced by 99 percent worldwide .
The virus , which once paralyzed some 75,000 children annually in Africa , is now only found in Afghanistan and Pakistan , where 165 people were affected by wild polio last year .
Health care workers have traveled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vaccinate children , navigating conflict zones , challenging terrain , and misinformation .
In 2003 , Kano and other states in northern Nigeria halted vaccination efforts after local religious leaders said the vaccine was part of a plot by the United States to render local Muslim women infertile .
Immunization efforts resumed the following year , but mistrust lingered .
Last year , Foreign Policy ’ s Jefcoate O ’ Donnell traveled to Kano to report on how traditional and religious leaders , polio survivors , and a network of 20,000 women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vaccine .
The last confirmed case of wild polio in Nigeria was reported in 2016 .
Some 95 percent of Africa ’ s population has now been immunized against the virus—one of the prerequisite conditions set by the Africa Regional Certification Commission , an independent body of experts appointed by WHO to verify polio eradication efforts .
This week ’ s declaration marks the second time that public health efforts have wiped out a lethal virus from the continent .
The first was smallpox , which was eradicated worldwide 40 years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largest internationally coordinated public health effort in history .
The initiative has been led by national governments along with five partners : WHO , Rotary International , the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , UNICEF , and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation .
What about vaccine-derived polio ?
Unlike most diseases that find reservoirs elsewhere , polio can be eradicated as the virus dies out if it is unable to find an unimmunized person to infect and continue the spread .
Two strains of the virus have already been stamped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declared free of wild polio , a small number of vaccine-derived cases persist , stemming from the use of more affordable oral polio vaccines .
Weakened live versions of the virus contained in the oral vaccine replicate in a child ’ s intestines , conferring immunity , before being excreted .
In places with poor sanitation and large numbers of unvaccinated people , excreted forms of the vaccine can make their way into the water supply and spark an outbreak .
So far this year , Africa has recorded 177 cases of vaccine-derived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ op-ed for Al Jazeera , Tedros and Holger Knaack , the president of Rotary International , said the lessons learned from polio eradication efforts could be applied in the fight against COVID-19 .
“ As recently as 2012 , half of all globally recorded cases of wild polio virus were in Nigeria—the last country in the region to rid itself of the virus .
However , as with the COVID-19 pandemic , the lesson is that it is never too late to turn a disease outbreak around , ” they wrote .
All @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In an interview aired on Russian state TV on Thursday , President Vladimir Putin said he had formed a reserve police force and was ready to intervene in neighboring Belarus if the situation got “ out of control.
” Putin ’ s comments upped the ante as Belarus is seeing unprecedented street protests in the wake of the Aug. 9 presidential election , with the results widely believed to be falsified .
Putin said he had created the reserve force at the request of the country ’ s embattled president , Aleksandr @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not yet been deployed .
A longtime ally of Moscow , Lukashenko has positioned Belarus as a loyal buffer state between Russia and the European Union .
Putin has long feared that his population might be inspired by a popular uprising that topples a long-standing authoritarian—Lukashenko has ruled Belarus for 26 years .
But analysts believe the Kremlin has little appetite to expend the significant resources required to prop up an unpopular leader .
While a repeat of Russia ’ s 2014 military invasion of Ukraine is unlikely in Belarus , the Kremlin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy supplies to its influence over Belarusian state media .
Rising conflict in Colombia .
Over the past two weeks , illegal armed groups have killed dozens of people in a series of massacres across Colombia , sparking fears that the 2016 peace deal ending five decades of civil war may be unraveling .
There have been 46 massacres , defined as the killing of three or more people in a single attack , since the start of the year , including seven in the past two weeks .
The attacks have evoked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paramilitary groups killed civilians en masse to assert control and sow terror .
The 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia ( FARC ) militant group brought fragile peace .
But the landmark deal , which helped win then-President Juan Manuel Santos a Nobel Peace Prize , is now floundering as former fighters have taken up arms once again and criminal gangs and drug traffickers have moved into regions abandoned by FARC , jostling for control of the lucrative narcotics and mining industries .
Rising tensions in the Mediterranean .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ they will conduct rival military exercises off the coast of the Greek island of Crete as tensions escalate over competing claims to oil and gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean Sea .
France , Italy , and Cyprus joined Greece ’ s naval exercises this week in bid to deter Turkey from further energy exploration , but the EU remains divided over how to respond to Turkey ’ s increasingly aggressive behavior .
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called for all drills to be brought to a halt over concerns that the situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ played with , and any small spark could lead to catastrophe , ” he said .
In February , the EU imposed sanctions on two Turkish nationals over Ankara ’ s natural gas exploration within the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus .
Time ’ s up for TikTok ?
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg sought to stoke fears in Washington over Chinese tech companies and in particular the rival video-sharing app TikTok , according to the Wall Street Journal .
TikTok is owned by the Beijing-based company ByteDance .
In meetings with lawmakers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the app posed a risk to freedom of expression as well as U.S. dominance in tech .
The warnings came as Zuckerberg sought to defend Facebook against the U.S. government ’ s antitrust review of Silicon Valley .
In a private dinner with President Donald Trump in October 2019 , Zuckerberg , who spent years courting Chinese President Xi Jinping in hopes of winning admission to the country for Facebook , warned that the threat of Chinese tech companies should be a greater concern than regulating Facebook .
Last November , the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TikTok after a number of senators raised concerns .
Trump signed two executive orders against the app this month , the first seeking to ban it in the United States and the second giving ByteDance 90 days to divest from its U.S. assets and data gathered in the country .
On Monday , TikTok announced that it was suing the U.S. government over Trump ’ s executive orders .
That ’ s billion with a B .
If the New START arms control treaty between Russia and the United States is not extended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost Washington hundreds of billions of dollars if the U.S. nuclear arsenal is expanded as a result , according to a report released on Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office ( CBO ) , a nonpartisan federal agency .
The last remaining agreement that constrains the two countries ’ nuclear arsenals is due to expire in February 2021 .
Depending on how the United States responds to the lapse , it could require no additional funding or as much as $ 439 billion in one-time acquisition costs and $ 28 billion in annual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysis .
The Trump administration has repeatedly raised the idea of bringing China into the treaty , but the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in February that Beijing had “ no intention ” of joining trilateral talks .
Protests in Libya .
Hundreds of people took to the streets in the Libyan capital of Tripoli and the city of Misrata this week in anti-government protests over deteriorating living conditions , corruption , and water and electricity shortages .
Several protesters were wounded after armed men allegedly aligned with the U.N.-backed government used live fire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to Amnesty International .
The human rights group said six protesters were abducted and their whereabouts remains unknown .
Libya tipped into chaos in 2011 after Muammar al-Qaddafi was toppled .
Over the past year , the civil conflict has descended into a proxy war as several countries , including Russia and Turkey , have backed rival forces .
Battle vestments .
The Russian military unveiled camouflage robes and green candles for priests accompanying Russian troops in field exercises and onto the battlefield as part of an annual military expo this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crucifixes in place of button holes and will bear the priest ’ s name and rank within the Orthodox Church .
The items were on display at the Russian Armed Forces Cathedral , one of the world ’ s largest Orthodox cathedrals , which was consecrated this summer in honor of the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II .
The Orthodox Church and the Russian military have formed the cornerstones of efforts to stir up patriotism under Putin .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: Africa is certified polio-free—a significant global milestone, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens to deploy a reserve police force in Belarus, and how Mark Zuckerberg stoked fears in Washington over TikTok.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
Africa Declared Free of Wild Polio
Africa was certified free of wild polio this week, a significant milestone in efforts to eradicate the disease worldwide. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), described the declaration as “one of the greatest public health achievements of our time.”
Since 1988, when WHO launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, wild polio infections have been reduced by 99 percent worldwide. The virus, which once paralyzed some 75,000 children annually in Africa, is now only found in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where 165 people were affected by wild polio last year.
Health care workers have traveled from house to house across the continent to vaccinate children, navigating conflict zones, challenging terrain, and misinformation. In 2003, Kano and other states in northern Nigeria halted vaccination efforts after local religious leaders said the vaccine was part of a plot by the United States to render local Muslim women infertile. Immunization efforts resumed the following year, but mistrust lingered.
Last year, Foreign Policy’s Jefcoate O’Donnell traveled to Kano to report on how traditional and religious leaders, polio survivors, and a network of 20,000 women joined forces to alleviate lingering distrust in the vaccine. The last confirmed case of wild polio in Nigeria was reported in 2016.
Some 95 percent of Africa’s population has now been immunized against the virus—one of the prerequisite conditions set by the Africa Regional Certification Commission, an independent body of experts appointed by WHO to verify polio eradication efforts. This week’s declaration marks the second time that public health efforts have wiped out a lethal virus from the continent. The first was smallpox, which was eradicated worldwide 40 years ago.
The campaign against polio is the largest internationally coordinated public health effort in history. The initiative has been led by national governments along with five partners: WHO, Rotary International, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UNICEF, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
What about vaccine-derived polio? Unlike most diseases that find reservoirs elsewhere, polio can be eradicated as the virus dies out if it is unable to find an unimmunized person to infect and continue the spread. Two strains of the virus have already been stamped out. But while Africa has been declared free of wild polio, a small number of vaccine-derived cases persist, stemming from the use of more affordable oral polio vaccines.
Weakened live versions of the virus contained in the oral vaccine replicate in a child’s intestines, conferring immunity, before being excreted. In places with poor sanitation and large numbers of unvaccinated people, excreted forms of the vaccine can make their way into the water supply and spark an outbreak. So far this year, Africa has recorded 177 cases of vaccine-derived polio.
Lessons learned. In an op-ed for Al Jazeera, Tedros and Holger Knaack, the president of Rotary International, said the lessons learned from polio eradication efforts could be applied in the fight against COVID-19. “As recently as 2012, half of all globally recorded cases of wild polio virus were in Nigeria—the last country in the region to rid itself of the virus. However, as with the COVID-19 pandemic, the lesson is that it is never too late to turn a disease outbreak around,” they wrote.
What We’re Following
All the Kremlin’s little green men. In an interview aired on Russian state TV on Thursday, President Vladimir Putin said he had formed a reserve police force and was ready to intervene in neighboring Belarus if the situation got “out of control.” Putin’s comments upped the ante as Belarus is seeing unprecedented street protests in the wake of the Aug. 9 presidential election, with the results widely believed to be falsified. Putin said he had created the reserve force at the request of the country’s embattled president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, adding that the force had not yet been deployed.
Opposition supporters rally to protest against disputed presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus, on Aug. 23.
A longtime ally of Moscow, Lukashenko has positioned Belarus as a loyal buffer state between Russia and the European Union. Putin has long feared that his population might be inspired by a popular uprising that topples a long-standing authoritarian—Lukashenko has ruled Belarus for 26 years. But analysts believe the Kremlin has little appetite to expend the significant resources required to prop up an unpopular leader.
While a repeat of Russia’s 2014 military invasion of Ukraine is unlikely in Belarus, the Kremlin has plenty of pressure points, from energy supplies to its influence over Belarusian state media.
Rising conflict in Colombia. Over the past two weeks, illegal armed groups have killed dozens of people in a series of massacres across Colombia, sparking fears that the 2016 peace deal ending five decades of civil war may be unraveling. There have been 46 massacres, defined as the killing of three or more people in a single attack, since the start of the year, including seven in the past two weeks.
The attacks have evoked memories of the 1990s, when illegal paramilitary groups killed civilians en masse to assert control and sow terror. The 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) militant group brought fragile peace. But the landmark deal, which helped win then-President Juan Manuel Santos a Nobel Peace Prize, is now floundering as former fighters have taken up arms once again and criminal gangs and drug traffickers have moved into regions abandoned by FARC, jostling for control of the lucrative narcotics and mining industries.
Rising tensions in the Mediterranean. Turkey and Greece announced this week that they will conduct rival military exercises off the coast of the Greek island of Crete as tensions escalate over competing claims to oil and gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. France, Italy, and Cyprus joined Greece’s naval exercises this week in bid to deter Turkey from further energy exploration, but the EU remains divided over how to respond to Turkey’s increasingly aggressive behavior.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called for all drills to be brought to a halt over concerns that the situation could spiral. “Fire is being played with, and any small spark could lead to catastrophe,” he said. In February, the EU imposed sanctions on two Turkish nationals over Ankara’s natural gas exploration within the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus.
Keep an Eye On
Time’s up for TikTok? Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg sought to stoke fears in Washington over Chinese tech companies and in particular the rival video-sharing app TikTok, according to the Wall Street Journal. TikTok is owned by the Beijing-based company ByteDance. In meetings with lawmakers and officials last year, Zuckerberg warned that the app posed a risk to freedom of expression as well as U.S. dominance in tech.
The warnings came as Zuckerberg sought to defend Facebook against the U.S. government’s antitrust review of Silicon Valley. In a private dinner with President Donald Trump in October 2019, Zuckerberg, who spent years courting Chinese President Xi Jinping in hopes of winning admission to the country for Facebook, warned that the threat of Chinese tech companies should be a greater concern than regulating Facebook.
Last November, the United States opened a national security review of TikTok after a number of senators raised concerns. Trump signed two executive orders against the app this month, the first seeking to ban it in the United States and the second giving ByteDance 90 days to divest from its U.S. assets and data gathered in the country. On Monday, TikTok announced that it was suing the U.S. government over Trump’s executive orders.
That’s billion with a B. If the New START arms control treaty between Russia and the United States is not extended or replaced next year, it could cost Washington hundreds of billions of dollars if the U.S. nuclear arsenal is expanded as a result, according to a report released on Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency. The last remaining agreement that constrains the two countries’ nuclear arsenals is due to expire in February 2021.
Depending on how the United States responds to the lapse, it could require no additional funding or as much as $439 billion in one-time acquisition costs and $28 billion in annual operating costs, according to the CBO analysis. The Trump administration has repeatedly raised the idea of bringing China into the treaty, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in February that Beijing had “no intention” of joining trilateral talks.
Protests in Libya. Hundreds of people took to the streets in the Libyan capital of Tripoli and the city of Misrata this week in anti-government protests over deteriorating living conditions, corruption, and water and electricity shortages. Several protesters were wounded after armed men allegedly aligned with the U.N.-backed government used live fire to disperse a protest on Sunday, according to Amnesty International. The human rights group said six protesters were abducted and their whereabouts remains unknown.
Libya tipped into chaos in 2011 after Muammar al-Qaddafi was toppled. Over the past year, the civil conflict has descended into a proxy war as several countries, including Russia and Turkey, have backed rival forces.
Odds and Ends
Battle vestments. The Russian military unveiled camouflage robes and green candles for priests accompanying Russian troops in field exercises and onto the battlefield as part of an annual military expo this week. The ankle-length robes feature miniature Orthodox crucifixes in place of button holes and will bear the priest’s name and rank within the Orthodox Church.
The items were on display at the Russian Armed Forces Cathedral, one of the world’s largest Orthodox cathedrals, which was consecrated this summer in honor of the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II. The Orthodox Church and the Russian military have formed the cornerstones of efforts to stir up patriotism under Putin.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-28--The Abe Era Ends, Cheering China, Concerning Washington

Perhaps the timing was coincidental , but in the very week that Shinzo Abe became Japan ’ s longest-serving prime minister , he resigned .
The cause was the same that prematurely ended his first premiership , in 2007 : chronic ulcerative colitis .
Despite slumping polls , a stubbornly sluggish economy , and a nagging scandal over the 2016 sale of land for a school in Osaka , Abe nonetheless towered over Japanese politics since returning to the top office in 2012 , and from that position he remained a staunch ally of the United States for nearly a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S.-Chinese geopolitical competition heats up is a worrisome prospect for Washington .
Who will succeed Abe , whether Japan will slip back into political paralysis or instability , and whether the next leader will have as energetic a foreign and defense policy as their predecessor are the key questions facing not only Japan , but also its allies and competitors .
After three consecutive terms as prime minister and nearly eight years atop Japanese politics , it is difficult to remember how moribund Japan seemed when he retook office in 2012 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ had led to five more one-year leaders , including a stint in which Abe ’ s Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) lost power for the first time since 1955 ( apart from a very brief period in the early 1990s ) .
From the ashes of his failed first term as prime minister , Abe turned himself into the most consequential Japanese politician since the power brokers Kakuei Tanaka and Yasuhiro Nakasone in the 1970s and 1980s .
Abe is the son of a foreign minister and grandson of Nobusuke Kishi , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Class A war criminal by the United States to prime minister from 1957 through 1960 and one of the architects of the LDP ’ s electoral dominance throughout the decades .
Abe cemented his position after 2012 through a coherent policy platform of economic growth and foreign and security policy activism .
Countering the image of the typical anodyne Japanese politician , Abe adopted U.S.-style sloganeering for his economic plans ; once he returned to office , he introduced “ Abenomics ” with its famous “ three arrows ” of monetary expansion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While falling short of many of the goals of Abenomics , such as a 2 percent inflation target to end deflation , Abe nonetheless broke new ground by joining , and ultimately leading , the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations , reducing corporate taxes , deregulating key sectors such as electricity , increasing the number of foreign workers in Japan , and promoting greater numbers of women in the workforce ( known as “ womenomics ” ) .
Abe ’ s economic policies , bold for a Japanese leader , were hammered first by two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wind out of the sails of any recovery and then by the global coronavirus pandemic .
Corporate governance scandals , including at Toshiba and Renault-Nissan , the latter leading to the infamous arrest and subsequent escape from Japan of the businessman Carlos Ghosn , underscored the difficulty of reforming what was once referred to “ Japan , Inc. ” Yet , even with his failings , Abe had the only comprehensive economic reform plan in Japan , and he could return to the basics in the absence of any credible alternative .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tame by global standards , it was in foreign and security policy that he went further than any previous postwar leader .
He gained notoriety for wanting to reform Japan ’ s constitution to get rid of the pacifist Article 9 , which prohibited the country from standing up a traditional military , and for seeming to question some interpretations of Japan ’ s war guilt .
Yet he also made the clearest apologies for Japan ’ s role in World War II , made an official visit to Pearl Harbor , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ More concretely , he essentially shed Japan ’ s post-1945 shackles .
He revised or scrapped laws preventing defense cooperation with allies , allowed Japanese companies to collaborate in defense production , created a National Security Council , and increased the defense budget each year .
During his time in office , Japan laid plans for its first aircraft carriers since World War II and will soon have the world ’ s second-largest F-35 fleet , after the United States , along with a new amphibious force designed to protect its far-flung islands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Abe deepened Japan ’ s foreign relations , most notably with India , where he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have worked well together , and with Australia , but also with Southeast Asian nations .
The background to all of Abe ’ s policies , of course , was the rise of China , which was Japan ’ s biggest economic partner but also the clearest threat to its national interests .
In many ways , Abe ’ s message to other Asian nations was simple : Japan is the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade with , one you can work with to uphold regional norms and rules , and one that won ’ t bully you .
It is perhaps another coincidence of Abe ’ s political career that he returned to power just as Xi Jinping took power in China .
The two jousted for eight years as Beijing warily watched Tokyo expand its economic and foreign ties , notably through its own policy of overseas development assistance to match Xi ’ s more lauded Belt and Road Initiative .
More recently , Abe started @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to offshore their China-based operations , speeding up a limited decoupling that is reshaping the world ’ s trade ties with China .
Of particular concern to Beijing was Abe ’ s military modernization .
Not only did Abe defend against constant Chinese incursion into waters around the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands , he also deepened Japan ’ s security cooperation with Australia and India , and kept a quiet , if close , relationship with Taiwan .
There will no doubt be sighs of relief in Beijing that Abe is stepping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his successor will have neither his energy nor vision for such an expansive Japanese role in the Indo-Pacific or the world .
At the core of Abe ’ s foreign policy was the alliance with the United States .
He helped guide a successful revision of the guidelines to the U.S.-Japanese alliance , significantly deepening it , with the Obama administration .
But Abe will be more remembered for eagerly embracing U.S. President Donald Trump , creating what appeared to be a uniquely close relationship .
Despite being labeled a Japanese nationalist , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vital to Japan ’ s own stability and prosperity .
His approach to Trump was designed partly to counter China , partly to ensure that Washington would continue to help protect Japan from North Korea , and partly to negotiate an initial replacement trade agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership after Trump pulled the United States out of the deal that would lower bilateral tariffs .
In the press conference announcing his resignation , Abe lamented his inability to get Russia to return the disputed Kuril Islands it captured during World War II as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from North Korea .
He also noted his failure to revise the constitution .
He might also have added the always-incomplete nature of economic reform , and Japan ’ s lagging behind in digital finance , 5G , and cybersecurity .
Yet overall , there is little doubt that for nearly eight years , Abe was one of Asia ’ s most effective leaders and , overall , one of its most successful .
In the final year of his premiership , Japan was spared the worst of the COVID-19 crisis , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power in 2012 , the country has a far higher international profile and is playing a larger role in Asia and abroad .
The great question for Japan , of course , is who succeeds Abe and what will they do with his policies ?
The LDP has a commanding majority in the national Diet and so will pick the next leader from hopefuls such as former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba , former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida , current Defense Minister Taro Kono , and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga .
Whether any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Abe will be tested in the coming weeks .
Abe was the most popular politician in Japan , even with his recent troubles , and no one commands the same level of authority .
Both Beijing and Pyongyang will be rooting for the type of faceless leaders who preceded Abe , and especially one who will not have as close a relationship with the American president .
The markets will worry that the next premier will back away from the reforms already enacted and will do nothing to increase Japan ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they have become so used to governing stability in Japan that they may be in for a rude surprise .
It ’ s been nearly a decade since Washington had to worry about whether a Japanese leader was fully committed to the alliance , could keep a stable parliamentary majority , and had clear plans for making Japan play a role in the world commensurate with its position as the third-largest economy .
It may not be long before the Abe era is mourned by those at home and its allies abroad @

Perhaps the timing was coincidental, but in the very week that Shinzo Abe became Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, he resigned. The cause was the same that prematurely ended his first premiership, in 2007: chronic ulcerative colitis. Despite slumping polls, a stubbornly sluggish economy, and a nagging scandal over the 2016 sale of land for a school in Osaka, Abe nonetheless towered over Japanese politics since returning to the top office in 2012, and from that position he remained a staunch ally of the United States for nearly a decade. Losing that partnership just as the U.S.-Chinese geopolitical competition heats up is a worrisome prospect for Washington. Who will succeed Abe, whether Japan will slip back into political paralysis or instability, and whether the next leader will have as energetic a foreign and defense policy as their predecessor are the key questions facing not only Japan, but also its allies and competitors.
Perhaps the timing was coincidental, but in the very week that Shinzo Abe became Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, he resigned. The cause was the same that prematurely ended his first premiership, in 2007: chronic ulcerative colitis. Despite slumping polls, a stubbornly sluggish economy, and a nagging scandal over the 2016 sale of land for a school in Osaka, Abe nonetheless towered over Japanese politics since returning to the top office in 2012, and from that position he remained a staunch ally of the United States for nearly a decade. Losing that partnership just as the U.S.-Chinese geopolitical competition heats up is a worrisome prospect for Washington. Who will succeed Abe, whether Japan will slip back into political paralysis or instability, and whether the next leader will have as energetic a foreign and defense policy as their predecessor are the key questions facing not only Japan, but also its allies and competitors.
After three consecutive terms as prime minister and nearly eight years atop Japanese politics, it is difficult to remember how moribund Japan seemed when he retook office in 2012. Abe’s first resignation in 2007 had led to five more one-year leaders, including a stint in which Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost power for the first time since 1955 (apart from a very brief period in the early 1990s). From the ashes of his failed first term as prime minister, Abe turned himself into the most consequential Japanese politician since the power brokers Kakuei Tanaka and Yasuhiro Nakasone in the 1970s and 1980s.
Abe is the son of a foreign minister and grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, who went from being imprisoned as a Class A war criminal by the United States to prime minister from 1957 through 1960 and one of the architects of the LDP’s electoral dominance throughout the decades. Abe cemented his position after 2012 through a coherent policy platform of economic growth and foreign and security policy activism. Countering the image of the typical anodyne Japanese politician, Abe adopted U.S.-style sloganeering for his economic plans; once he returned to office, he introduced “Abenomics” with its famous “three arrows” of monetary expansion, fiscal stimulus, and structural reform.
While falling short of many of the goals of Abenomics, such as a 2 percent inflation target to end deflation, Abe nonetheless broke new ground by joining, and ultimately leading, the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, reducing corporate taxes, deregulating key sectors such as electricity, increasing the number of foreign workers in Japan, and promoting greater numbers of women in the workforce (known as “womenomics”).
Abe’s economic policies, bold for a Japanese leader, were hammered first by two ill-considered consumption tax increases that took the wind out of the sails of any recovery and then by the global coronavirus pandemic. Corporate governance scandals, including at Toshiba and Renault-Nissan, the latter leading to the infamous arrest and subsequent escape from Japan of the businessman Carlos Ghosn, underscored the difficulty of reforming what was once referred to “Japan, Inc.” Yet, even with his failings, Abe had the only comprehensive economic reform plan in Japan, and he could return to the basics in the absence of any credible alternative.
If Abe’s economic policies seemed relatively tame by global standards, it was in foreign and security policy that he went further than any previous postwar leader. He gained notoriety for wanting to reform Japan’s constitution to get rid of the pacifist Article 9, which prohibited the country from standing up a traditional military, and for seeming to question some interpretations of Japan’s war guilt. Yet he also made the clearest apologies for Japan’s role in World War II, made an official visit to Pearl Harbor, and hosted U.S. Barack Obama at Hiroshima.
More concretely, he essentially shed Japan’s post-1945 shackles. He revised or scrapped laws preventing defense cooperation with allies, allowed Japanese companies to collaborate in defense production, created a National Security Council, and increased the defense budget each year. During his time in office, Japan laid plans for its first aircraft carriers since World War II and will soon have the world’s second-largest F-35 fleet, after the United States, along with a new amphibious force designed to protect its far-flung islands from the Chinese military.
Throughout Asia, Abe deepened Japan’s foreign relations, most notably with India, where he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have worked well together, and with Australia, but also with Southeast Asian nations. The background to all of Abe’s policies, of course, was the rise of China, which was Japan’s biggest economic partner but also the clearest threat to its national interests. In many ways, Abe’s message to other Asian nations was simple: Japan is the “un-China,” a nation you can trade with, one you can work with to uphold regional norms and rules, and one that won’t bully you.
It is perhaps another coincidence of Abe’s political career that he returned to power just as Xi Jinping took power in China. The two jousted for eight years as Beijing warily watched Tokyo expand its economic and foreign ties, notably through its own policy of overseas development assistance to match Xi’s more lauded Belt and Road Initiative. More recently, Abe started a post-pandemic fund to entice Japanese corporations to offshore their China-based operations, speeding up a limited decoupling that is reshaping the world’s trade ties with China.
Of particular concern to Beijing was Abe’s military modernization. Not only did Abe defend against constant Chinese incursion into waters around the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands, he also deepened Japan’s security cooperation with Australia and India, and kept a quiet, if close, relationship with Taiwan. There will no doubt be sighs of relief in Beijing that Abe is stepping down, as well as hopes that his successor will have neither his energy nor vision for such an expansive Japanese role in the Indo-Pacific or the world.
At the core of Abe’s foreign policy was the alliance with the United States. He helped guide a successful revision of the guidelines to the U.S.-Japanese alliance, significantly deepening it, with the Obama administration. But Abe will be more remembered for eagerly embracing U.S. President Donald Trump, creating what appeared to be a uniquely close relationship. Despite being labeled a Japanese nationalist, Abe understood that cooperation with Washington remained vital to Japan’s own stability and prosperity. His approach to Trump was designed partly to counter China, partly to ensure that Washington would continue to help protect Japan from North Korea, and partly to negotiate an initial replacement trade agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership after Trump pulled the United States out of the deal that would lower bilateral tariffs.
In the press conference announcing his resignation, Abe lamented his inability to get Russia to return the disputed Kuril Islands it captured during World War II as well as secure the return of abductees from North Korea. He also noted his failure to revise the constitution. He might also have added the always-incomplete nature of economic reform, and Japan’s lagging behind in digital finance, 5G, and cybersecurity. Yet overall, there is little doubt that for nearly eight years, Abe was one of Asia’s most effective leaders and, overall, one of its most successful. In the final year of his premiership, Japan was spared the worst of the COVID-19 crisis, and, compared to when Abe returned to power in 2012, the country has a far higher international profile and is playing a larger role in Asia and abroad.
The great question for Japan, of course, is who succeeds Abe and what will they do with his policies? The LDP has a commanding majority in the national Diet and so will pick the next leader from hopefuls such as former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, current Defense Minister Taro Kono, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga. Whether any has the electoral attractiveness and policy vision of Abe will be tested in the coming weeks.
Abe was the most popular politician in Japan, even with his recent troubles, and no one commands the same level of authority. Both Beijing and Pyongyang will be rooting for the type of faceless leaders who preceded Abe, and especially one who will not have as close a relationship with the American president. The markets will worry that the next premier will back away from the reforms already enacted and will do nothing to increase Japan’s industrial competitiveness.
As for the Americans, they have become so used to governing stability in Japan that they may be in for a rude surprise. It’s been nearly a decade since Washington had to worry about whether a Japanese leader was fully committed to the alliance, could keep a stable parliamentary majority, and had clear plans for making Japan play a role in the world commensurate with its position as the third-largest economy. It may not be long before the Abe era is mourned by those at home and its allies abroad.