foreignpolicy--2020-02-21--India’s Economic Troubles Are Rooted in Politics

Since the Great Recession that began in late 2007 , there is a growing feeling that economics is not serving us well .
There is truth to this hunch , but the reasons are more complex than most people realize .
Academic disciplines are built on assumptions ; the most tried and tested of these are often enshrined as axioms .
When economic policies go wrong , the standard practice is to rush to examine those axioms .
Are some of them incorrect ?
Economists collate statistics , create new data using randomized trials , collect impressionistic information , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of the established axioms are not quite right .
Correct them , and one will get better predictions and better policy .
Such an approach can work under normal circumstances , but when economic outcomes go deeply wrong , the problem may be more foundational : not in the axioms of the discipline but in the unstated assumptions—the “ assumptions in the woodwork , ” which all disciplines have and which we are usually unaware of .
The most striking example comes from geometry .
Euclid ’ s Elements contained an assumption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is not even clear that Euclid was aware of it : the presumption that his experiments were conducted on a flat , two-dimensional surface .
But if Euclid ’ s work was premised on a curved surface , such as that of the Earth , Euclidean geometry would be flawed .
This was realized in the early 18th century by the Swiss mathematical genius Leonhard Euler , and through his work and that of several other mathematicians , such as Germany ’ s Carl Friedrich Gauss , non-Euclidean geometry was born .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ can call it that , did not matter much when human beings did not travel and trade over great distances—at least not over short durations of time .
This is because over short spaces , a flat surface is a good approximation of a gently curving one .
When , from the 15th century onward , it became common to travel long distances for trade and conquests , initially by ship and then by plane , it became critical not to base calculations on Euclidean geometry .
The curvature of the Earth mattered.We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 21st century ’ s troubled economies .
To understand the analogy for economics , consider trade .
Much of human well-being depends on our ability to conduct trade and exchange goods .
If each household had to produce all that it consumed , our lives would be solitary , poor , and short .
What leads to efficient trade and exchange ?
Economists usually point to a few assumptions , such as self-interest ( in particular , the urge to accumulate and consume more ) , the axiom of diminishing marginal utility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same good causes utility from each additional unit to decline ) , and so on .
But these assumptions are in fact inadequate .
Laboratory tests show that rats satisfy these axioms , too , but there is no evidence of trade among rats .
For society to conduct trade , these economic assumptions need to be supplemented with other social and normative preconditions : We need language , the ability to communicate , and some minimal respect for others ’ rights .
These are the assumptions in the woodwork that economists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vital role .
Put simply , markets , trade , development , and economic growth are made possible by a bedrock of social norms beneath the economy .
When these norms are not there or they mutate , the economy can teeter or even collapse .
One can see the importance of this in today ’ s world .
There is a lot of soul-searching about the malfunctioning of standard policy .
Central banks cutting interest rates and increasing liquidity are failing to revive growth and create jobs .
The Phillips curve—the theory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stable and inverse relationship—is in tatters .
Economies that were doing remarkably well are suddenly stalling and stumbling .
It will need research and analysis to locate all the fault lines causing these problems , but it is arguable that with globalization , societies with very different norms are coming to inhabit a common playing field and this is causing strains not seen before , as would happen if two sets of islanders , one that followed the norm of driving on the left and one that drove on the right , came @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In brief , we need to step beyond economics to understand the 21st century ’ s troubled economies .
India presents a striking example of the limitations of pure economics .
From 2003 to 2011 , the world ’ s largest democracy was growing at a phenomenal rate , exceeding 9 percent each year between 2005 and 2008 .
Even after 2011 , it kept up a reasonable rate of growth .
However , since 2018 , the economy seems to be spinning into a crisis , with growth declining to 4.5 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rural sector declining at rates not seen since the late 1960s , and the overall unemployment rate at a 45-year high .
The 2018 Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India Report , recently released by the National Crime Records Bureau , highlights a stark mood of despair : Since 2017 , there has been a noticeable rise in the relative share of suicides by daily wage earners .
They are among the poorest people in the economic ladder , thereby suggesting a rise in poverty .
What is causing this economic turnaround in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago was perceived as exemplary ?
Mistakes in fiscal and monetary policies have played a role , of course .
But the sharpness of the decline suggests that something more is going on , and part of the cause lies in ruptures in the normative and institutional foundations of the nation caused by divisive politics.The rise in divisive politics , whipping up of religious tensions , and marginalization of minorities … are undoubtedly taking a toll on people ’ s sense of belonging and trust in the nation .
Trust and a sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they form an important part of the underlying normative foundation of an economy .
These values are eroding in India .
An important hint of this comes from the decline in India ’ s investment rate—investment being dependent on trust and confidence—from nearly 39 percent of national income seven or eight years ago to 30 percent today .
This may well be contributing to the slowdown .
Market economies rely on trust in several ways .
For most transactions , there is a gap between service and payment .
The auto shop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay tomorrow .
You pay the painter today , and she paints your home over the following week .
Without trust , all these transactions would slow down and malfunction .
Francis Fukuyama noted the correlation between a society ’ s level of trust and economic prosperity , and , in a 2013 paper , Yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc use statistical analysis to show that trust can be critical for economic growth .
By their calculation , an Africa with Sweden ’ s trust levels would achieve six times the per capita @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harvard Business Review paper shows that if a company ’ s workers have a sense of belonging , they improve their job performance by 56 percent , with a 50 percent drop in churn and a 75 percent reduction in sick days .
For a 10,000-person company , this would result in annual savings of more than $ 52 million .
Extrapolate this to a nation , and you get a sense of why nations where large segments feel excluded do poorly .
The rise in divisive politics , whipping up of religious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we have seen over the last four or five years in India are undoubtedly taking a toll on people ’ s sense of belonging and trust in the nation .
This is an important reason India ’ s economy is doing so poorly .
The role of trust and sense of ownership get endorsement from a very unusual source : The British music conductor Charles Hazlewood noted in an interview that while discipline and obedience play an important role in a successful performance , the critical element between the conductor and individual musicians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use their own judgment and creativity is what leads to truly great music .
Something similar is likely true for the economy .
With globalization and dramatic changes in technology , our world is transforming beyond recognition .
It is not enough to simply collect data and examine the axioms of economics .
Instead , economists must unearth some of the hidden assumptions of our discipline—the norms that we , knowingly or unwittingly , assume to be there , which may not be there or may have shifted .
It is time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our models .
In short , this may well be economics ’ Euclidean moment .

Since the Great Recession that began in late 2007, there is a growing feeling that economics is not serving us well. There is truth to this hunch, but the reasons are more complex than most people realize.
Since the Great Recession that began in late 2007, there is a growing feeling that economics is not serving us well. There is truth to this hunch, but the reasons are more complex than most people realize.
Academic disciplines are built on assumptions; the most tried and tested of these are often enshrined as axioms. When economic policies go wrong, the standard practice is to rush to examine those axioms. Are some of them incorrect? Economists collate statistics, create new data using randomized trials, collect impressionistic information, and often come out with the conclusion that some of the established axioms are not quite right. Correct them, and one will get better predictions and better policy. Such an approach can work under normal circumstances, but when economic outcomes go deeply wrong, the problem may be more foundational: not in the axioms of the discipline but in the unstated assumptions—the “assumptions in the woodwork,” which all disciplines have and which we are usually unaware of.
The most striking example comes from geometry. Euclid’s Elements contained an assumption that was never stated explicitly, and it is not even clear that Euclid was aware of it: the presumption that his experiments were conducted on a flat, two-dimensional surface. But if Euclid’s work was premised on a curved surface, such as that of the Earth, Euclidean geometry would be flawed. This was realized in the early 18th century by the Swiss mathematical genius Leonhard Euler, and through his work and that of several other mathematicians, such as Germany’s Carl Friedrich Gauss, non-Euclidean geometry was born.
Euclid’s error, if we can call it that, did not matter much when human beings did not travel and trade over great distances—at least not over short durations of time. This is because over short spaces, a flat surface is a good approximation of a gently curving one. When, from the 15th century onward, it became common to travel long distances for trade and conquests, initially by ship and then by plane, it became critical not to base calculations on Euclidean geometry. The curvature of the Earth mattered.We need to step beyond economics to understand the 21st century’s troubled economies.
To understand the analogy for economics, consider trade. Much of human well-being depends on our ability to conduct trade and exchange goods. If each household had to produce all that it consumed, our lives would be solitary, poor, and short. What leads to efficient trade and exchange? Economists usually point to a few assumptions, such as self-interest (in particular, the urge to accumulate and consume more), the axiom of diminishing marginal utility (the fact that consuming more of the same good causes utility from each additional unit to decline), and so on. But these assumptions are in fact inadequate. Laboratory tests show that rats satisfy these axioms, too, but there is no evidence of trade among rats. For society to conduct trade, these economic assumptions need to be supplemented with other social and normative preconditions: We need language, the ability to communicate, and some minimal respect for others’ rights. These are the assumptions in the woodwork that economists are often unmindful of but play a vital role.
Put simply, markets, trade, development, and economic growth are made possible by a bedrock of social norms beneath the economy. When these norms are not there or they mutate, the economy can teeter or even collapse. One can see the importance of this in today’s world. There is a lot of soul-searching about the malfunctioning of standard policy. Central banks cutting interest rates and increasing liquidity are failing to revive growth and create jobs. The Phillips curve—the theory stating that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship—is in tatters. Economies that were doing remarkably well are suddenly stalling and stumbling. It will need research and analysis to locate all the fault lines causing these problems, but it is arguable that with globalization, societies with very different norms are coming to inhabit a common playing field and this is causing strains not seen before, as would happen if two sets of islanders, one that followed the norm of driving on the left and one that drove on the right, came to live on the same island. In brief, we need to step beyond economics to understand the 21st century’s troubled economies.
India presents a striking example of the limitations of pure economics. From 2003 to 2011, the world’s largest democracy was growing at a phenomenal rate, exceeding 9 percent each year between 2005 and 2008. Even after 2011, it kept up a reasonable rate of growth. However, since 2018, the economy seems to be spinning into a crisis, with growth declining to 4.5 percent, consumption in India’s vast rural sector declining at rates not seen since the late 1960s, and the overall unemployment rate at a 45-year high. The 2018 Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India Report, recently released by the National Crime Records Bureau, highlights a stark mood of despair: Since 2017, there has been a noticeable rise in the relative share of suicides by daily wage earners. They are among the poorest people in the economic ladder, thereby suggesting a rise in poverty.
What is causing this economic turnaround in a country that until a few years ago was perceived as exemplary? Mistakes in fiscal and monetary policies have played a role, of course. But the sharpness of the decline suggests that something more is going on, and part of the cause lies in ruptures in the normative and institutional foundations of the nation caused by divisive politics.The rise in divisive politics, whipping up of religious tensions, and marginalization of minorities … are undoubtedly taking a toll on people’s sense of belonging and trust in the nation.
Trust and a sense of belonging are not economic variables, but they form an important part of the underlying normative foundation of an economy. These values are eroding in India. An important hint of this comes from the decline in India’s investment rate—investment being dependent on trust and confidence—from nearly 39 percent of national income seven or eight years ago to 30 percent today. This may well be contributing to the slowdown. Market economies rely on trust in several ways. For most transactions, there is a gap between service and payment. The auto shop repairs your car today, and you pay tomorrow. You pay the painter today, and she paints your home over the following week. Without trust, all these transactions would slow down and malfunction. Francis Fukuyama noted the correlation between a society’s level of trust and economic prosperity, and, in a 2013 paper, Yann Algan and Pierre Cahuc use statistical analysis to show that trust can be critical for economic growth. By their calculation, an Africa with Sweden’s trust levels would achieve six times the per capita income it currently has.
A recent Harvard Business Review paper shows that if a company’s workers have a sense of belonging, they improve their job performance by 56 percent, with a 50 percent drop in churn and a 75 percent reduction in sick days. For a 10,000-person company, this would result in annual savings of more than $52 million. Extrapolate this to a nation, and you get a sense of why nations where large segments feel excluded do poorly.
The rise in divisive politics, whipping up of religious tensions, and marginalization of minorities that we have seen over the last four or five years in India are undoubtedly taking a toll on people’s sense of belonging and trust in the nation. This is an important reason India’s economy is doing so poorly.
The role of trust and sense of ownership get endorsement from a very unusual source: The British music conductor Charles Hazlewood noted in an interview that while discipline and obedience play an important role in a successful performance, the critical element between the conductor and individual musicians is trust. Giving them space to use their own judgment and creativity is what leads to truly great music.
Something similar is likely true for the economy. With globalization and dramatic changes in technology, our world is transforming beyond recognition. It is not enough to simply collect data and examine the axioms of economics. Instead, economists must unearth some of the hidden assumptions of our discipline—the norms that we, knowingly or unwittingly, assume to be there, which may not be there or may have shifted. It is time to bring anthropology into economics and to rewrite our models. In short, this may well be economics’ Euclidean moment.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-21--‘Parasite’ Has a Hidden Backstory of Middle-Class Failure and Chicken Joints

‘ Parasite ’ Has a Hidden Backstory of Middle-Class Failure and Chicken Joints Parasite , the first foreign language film to win the Academy Award for best picture , and the first to be condemned in public by a U.S. president , is a story of poverty and inequality .
The movie , which is also the first Korean movie to win an Oscar , is centered on the Kim family , who live in a basement in Seoul .
But how did the Kim family end up there ?
The movie drops only the slightest of hints in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the career of the patriarch , Ki-taek .
Yet a Korean audience would immediately grasp the implication behind these simple words : “ chicken place ” and “ king castella.
” For those familiar with a typical career trajectory in South Korea , those terms reveal a whole world of middle-class failure—reflecting economic hopes and tragedies that still resonate throughout the country .
Korean fried chicken is a delicious dish with a worldwide following .
In the streets of Seoul , a fried chicken joint—typically a small , ramshackle operation that relies more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be seen on virtually every street corner .
As of February 2019 , there were approximately 87,000 chicken joints in South Korea , more than double the number of every single McDonald ’ s restaurant in the world .
But its transformation into a staple snack is a relatively new phenomenon .
The number of fried chicken joints in South Korea tripled in the decade between 2003 and 2013—and then more than doubled again from 2013 to 2019 .
The Kim family in Parasite , apparently , was a part of this wave—and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their shirts in it .
The massive increase in the number of chicken joints was a direct result of the 1997 Asian financial crisis , which fundamentally reorganized the South Korean economy in a manner similar to that the 2008 financial crisis did with the U.S. economy .
Prior to the 1997 crisis , a typical career path for Korean wage earners , at that point still overwhelmingly male , was to join a company and stay with it until retirement .
During the period of employment , the company would often pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ car , college tuition for children , and a pension after retirement .
This system , made possible through South Korea ’ s miraculous economic growth from the 1970s through the early 1990s , was the mechanism that created the country ’ s prosperous middle class .
This middle class pushed the country to transition away from military dictatorship and launched the trend of sophisticated pop culture , including K-pop , Korean drama , and cinematic masterworks from Park Chan-wook ( Oldboy ) and Parasite director Bong Joon-ho .
In 1997 , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even those who managed to keep their jobs could no longer expect tenured employment , much less a pension .
It was common for people in their 40s and 50s to be pushed into so-called voluntary retirement with a lump sum of severance pay .
Suddenly without the jobs that had anchored their lives , these young retirees had to fend for their families by turning that severance pay into a steady cash flow .
Quick-serve restaurants , including fried chicken joints , offered one seeming solution .
They required a low amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to start .
Overhead fees could be kept low by enlisting the whole family as free labor .
The low interest rate following the economic crisis made it easy to obtain a loan to add to the severance pay and build up seed money .
The result is that , as of late 2018 , South Korea had 125 restaurants per 10,000 people , more than double the rate of Japan ( 58 per 10,000 ) and six times the rate of the United States ( 21 per 10,000 ) .
South Korea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not just reflect a love of dining out but also an economy that pushes people into small subsistence-level businesses .
Fried chicken joints remain the most popular form of these mom-and-pop restaurants .
A fried chicken restaurant requires very little skill , as its menu is only two or three items long .
It can be franchised easily , allowing inexperienced restauranteurs to ease into the business .
Today , fried chicken franchises comprise more than 20 percent of all franchise restaurants in South Korea .
Veterans of fried chicken joints grimly joke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s flavor is the sophisticated workforce that fries those birds , as laid-off engineers with master ’ s degrees are known to exercise particular care for the precise time and temperature for marinating and cooking the chickens .
The surge of fried chicken joints quickly saturated the market , to a point that the Korean government tried to slow the growth in these restaurants by , for example , banning franchise restaurants from opening two outlets within half a mile of each other .
Yet the number of restaurants continued to climb @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outlets finally began filing for bankruptcy one by one .
And so , with a couple of words , Bong implied an entire backstory for his basement dwellers : The patriarch once had a decent job and then started a chicken joint after being laid off .
Then the chicken joint failed when five other people opened similar restaurants around them .
The words “ king castella ” hint that the Kim family ’ s woes were compounded with yet another entry into a heavily saturated market .
If running a fried chicken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trading , running a king castella joint is like day trading on margins : same meager returns but with double or triple the risk .
Around 2016 , a snack fad involving a giant custard cake took South Korea by storm .
At the time , the fad , which came from Taiwan , seemed like an opportunity for those looking to open a small business : same level of low input as a fried chicken joint but with shorter hours and higher margins .
Compared with standing in front of a boiling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ selling a dessert treat appeared to be an easier way .
Unfortunately , the pastry trend had an even shorter shelf life than fried chicken .
The king castella cake fad barely lasted a year ; its actual operation resembled a Ponzi scheme where the early entrants sold their stores with premium to the latecomers , who ended up holding the bag when the cake bubble burst .
The final nail in the coffin was a purported exposé by a cable news channel , making the dubious claim that the castella cakes were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil .
But the shaky exposé was enough to destroy thousands of small-business owners who bet their last penny on the desserts .
In Parasite , the king castella not only ruined the Kim family but also drove Geun-sae , the deranged husband of the housekeeper , into hiding in the mansion ’ s basement to avoid the loan sharks .
The words “ fried chicken ” and “ king castella ” can easily be missed in Parasite , but their implications are chilling .
They signify that the Kim family , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regular members of the middle class .
The movie uses other small devices to indicate this point—for example , the father Ki-taek ’ s manner of speech , which is proper to the point of being theatrical , or the mother Chung-sook ’ s silver medal as a hammer throw athlete .
All this plants a seed of quiet anxiety for viewers who know what those words imply : Even if you lead a comfortable life today , you could find yourself in the Kim family ’ s basement tomorrow .

Parasite, the first foreign language film to win the Academy Award for best picture, and the first to be condemned in public by a U.S. president, is a story of poverty and inequality. The movie, which is also the first Korean movie to win an Oscar, is centered on the Kim family, who live in a basement in Seoul. But how did the Kim family end up there? The movie drops only the slightest of hints in the family’s conversation as they retrace the career of the patriarch, Ki-taek. Yet a Korean audience would immediately grasp the implication behind these simple words: “chicken place” and “king castella.” For those familiar with a typical career trajectory in South Korea, those terms reveal a whole world of middle-class failure—reflecting economic hopes and tragedies that still resonate throughout the country.
Parasite, the first foreign language film to win the Academy Award for best picture, and the first to be condemned in public by a U.S. president, is a story of poverty and inequality. The movie, which is also the first Korean movie to win an Oscar, is centered on the Kim family, who live in a basement in Seoul. But how did the Kim family end up there? The movie drops only the slightest of hints in the family’s conversation as they retrace the career of the patriarch, Ki-taek. Yet a Korean audience would immediately grasp the implication behind these simple words: “chicken place” and “king castella.” For those familiar with a typical career trajectory in South Korea, those terms reveal a whole world of middle-class failure—reflecting economic hopes and tragedies that still resonate throughout the country.
Korean fried chicken is a delicious dish with a worldwide following. In the streets of Seoul, a fried chicken joint—typically a small, ramshackle operation that relies more on delivery sales than on eat-in service—can be seen on virtually every street corner. As of February 2019, there were approximately 87,000 chicken joints in South Korea, more than double the number of every single McDonald’s restaurant in the world. But its transformation into a staple snack is a relatively new phenomenon. The number of fried chicken joints in South Korea tripled in the decade between 2003 and 2013—and then more than doubled again from 2013 to 2019. The Kim family in Parasite, apparently, was a part of this wave—and, like many other families, lost their shirts in it.
The massive increase in the number of chicken joints was a direct result of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which fundamentally reorganized the South Korean economy in a manner similar to that the 2008 financial crisis did with the U.S. economy. Prior to the 1997 crisis, a typical career path for Korean wage earners, at that point still overwhelmingly male, was to join a company and stay with it until retirement. During the period of employment, the company would often pay for the employee’s housing, car, college tuition for children, and a pension after retirement.
This system, made possible through South Korea’s miraculous economic growth from the 1970s through the early 1990s, was the mechanism that created the country’s prosperous middle class. This middle class pushed the country to transition away from military dictatorship and launched the trend of sophisticated pop culture, including K-pop, Korean drama, and cinematic masterworks from Park Chan-wook (Oldboy) and Parasite director Bong Joon-ho.
In 1997, this system of lifetime employment failed catastrophically. Even those who managed to keep their jobs could no longer expect tenured employment, much less a pension. It was common for people in their 40s and 50s to be pushed into so-called voluntary retirement with a lump sum of severance pay. Suddenly without the jobs that had anchored their lives, these young retirees had to fend for their families by turning that severance pay into a steady cash flow.
Quick-serve restaurants, including fried chicken joints, offered one seeming solution. They required a low amount of capital and little to no skill to start. Overhead fees could be kept low by enlisting the whole family as free labor. The low interest rate following the economic crisis made it easy to obtain a loan to add to the severance pay and build up seed money. The result is that, as of late 2018, South Korea had 125 restaurants per 10,000 people, more than double the rate of Japan (58 per 10,000) and six times the rate of the United States (21 per 10,000). South Korea’s huge number of restaurants do not just reflect a love of dining out but also an economy that pushes people into small subsistence-level businesses.
Fried chicken joints remain the most popular form of these mom-and-pop restaurants. A fried chicken restaurant requires very little skill, as its menu is only two or three items long. It can be franchised easily, allowing inexperienced restauranteurs to ease into the business. Today, fried chicken franchises comprise more than 20 percent of all franchise restaurants in South Korea. Veterans of fried chicken joints grimly joke that the secret of Korean fried chicken’s flavor is the sophisticated workforce that fries those birds, as laid-off engineers with master’s degrees are known to exercise particular care for the precise time and temperature for marinating and cooking the chickens.
The surge of fried chicken joints quickly saturated the market, to a point that the Korean government tried to slow the growth in these restaurants by, for example, banning franchise restaurants from opening two outlets within half a mile of each other. Yet the number of restaurants continued to climb until around 2015, when the struggling outlets finally began filing for bankruptcy one by one. And so, with a couple of words, Bong implied an entire backstory for his basement dwellers: The patriarch once had a decent job and then started a chicken joint after being laid off. Then the chicken joint failed when five other people opened similar restaurants around them.
The words “king castella” hint that the Kim family’s woes were compounded with yet another entry into a heavily saturated market. If running a fried chicken joint in Korea is akin to day trading, running a king castella joint is like day trading on margins: same meager returns but with double or triple the risk. Around 2016, a snack fad involving a giant custard cake took South Korea by storm. At the time, the fad, which came from Taiwan, seemed like an opportunity for those looking to open a small business: same level of low input as a fried chicken joint but with shorter hours and higher margins. Compared with standing in front of a boiling fryer for 15 hours a day, selling a dessert treat appeared to be an easier way.
Unfortunately, the pastry trend had an even shorter shelf life than fried chicken. The king castella cake fad barely lasted a year; its actual operation resembled a Ponzi scheme where the early entrants sold their stores with premium to the latecomers, who ended up holding the bag when the cake bubble burst. The final nail in the coffin was a purported exposé by a cable news channel, making the dubious claim that the castella cakes were unhealthy because they used too much cooking oil. But the shaky exposé was enough to destroy thousands of small-business owners who bet their last penny on the desserts. In Parasite, the king castella not only ruined the Kim family but also drove Geun-sae, the deranged husband of the housekeeper, into hiding in the mansion’s basement to avoid the loan sharks.
The words “fried chicken” and “king castella” can easily be missed in Parasite, but their implications are chilling. They signify that the Kim family, for all their desperate poverty, were once regular members of the middle class. The movie uses other small devices to indicate this point—for example, the father Ki-taek’s manner of speech, which is proper to the point of being theatrical, or the mother Chung-sook’s silver medal as a hammer throw athlete. All this plants a seed of quiet anxiety for viewers who know what those words imply: Even if you lead a comfortable life today, you could find yourself in the Kim family’s basement tomorrow.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-21--India’s Muslims Are Terrified of Being Deported

India ’ s Muslims Are Terrified of Being Deported Firoza Bano , 50 , sat worried in her home in the northern Indian city of Jaipur .
Born in the north Indian state of Rajasthan in 1970 , she has barely traveled outside the state—but now she faces the possibility of being kicked out of her home country .
The Citizenship Amendment Act ( CAA ) and the proposed all-India National Register of Citizens ( NRC ) will require Bano to prove she ’ s Indian .
If she ’ s unable to produce the requisite documents , she might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infiltrator .
At best , she might spend months in one of the detention centers being built across the country to house the newly created refugees—at worst , she could be deported to a country she ’ s never known or be left stateless .
“ My mother gave birth to me at home .
My birth was never registered , so how do I produce a certificate ?
” Bano said .
“ Nor do I have land ownership or tenancy records dating back five decades .
Although we ’ re law-abiding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all our lives , we might be thrown out of the country.
” Last December , India passed the CAA , which provides a route to citizenship to members of six religious minority communities from Pakistan , Bangladesh , and Afghanistan—but not for Muslims .
Coupled with the NRC , a supposedly definitive list of Indian citizens , the provision is facing criticism for being anti-Muslim and unconstitutional .
A similar list in Assam has already been used to single out Indian-born Muslims for potential deportation .
And while members of other faiths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a route back into Indian citizenship if they ’ re branded as illegal by the NRC process , Muslims have no such respite .
That ’ s a big problem .
Even today , 38 percent of Indian children under the age of 5 do not have birth certificates .
Other documents can substitute , but they ’ re also often lacking—especially for older people .
The reasons for this are varied—lack of awareness , inaccessible registration centers , and no immediate requirement for these certificates to access social services .
Government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not registered in India in 2015-2016 , and the situation is worse for older residents , who were born when home births were more prevalent in the country .
There ’ s a gulf between government rhetoric on the NRC and what critics believe—but the record of an increasingly hard-right Hindu nationalist government under the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) makes the government ’ s word seem dubious at best .
There has been a systematic scapegoating of Muslims under BJP rule .
Human Rights Watch published a report in 2019 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rhetoric ” to spur “ a violent vigilante campaign , ” whereby radical cow protection groups lynched 44 people to death , 36 of them Muslims , between May 2015 and December 2018 .
Prior to its landslide win in the 2019 elections , the BJP also used religious polarization as a campaigning tool , making promises such as the expedited construction of a temple in place of a demolished mosque in Ayodhya .
After the CAA bill was signed into law , widespread protests erupted across the country , killing 25 people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detention .
The government has downplayed the NRC , stating that it has no plans of conducting the NRC exercise across the country on religious lines .
That comes despite regular rhetoric from the BJP on supposed infiltrators from Muslim countries .
In the state of West Bengal , for instance , BJP chief Dilip Ghosh recently stated that the center was committed to “ throwing out ” 10 million Bangladeshi Muslim “ infiltrators ” from the state and that those opposing the move were “ anti-Hindu , anti-Bengali and anti-India.
” Addressing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Dec. 22 , Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the CAA/NRC had nothing to do with Indian Muslims and that “ no Indian Muslims will be sent to any detention centers.
” The speech was accused of being a “ combination of falsehoods and half-truths.
” Critics have called the CAA/NRC the “ greatest act of social poisoning by a government in independent India , ” aimed at making the country a Hindu state and turning a large number of Muslims into stateless subjects .
Zakia Soman , a co-founder of Bharatiya Muslim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationwide rights organization for Muslims , said the “ diabolical ” developments have led to great apprehension in the Muslim community , which makes up 14.2 percent of the Indian population .
Many Muslims have approached BMMA to understand and prepare for the repercussions .
The organization has launched posters raising awareness and community meetings in 15 states across the country .
“ Since CAA is so discriminatory , it has given way to fear that even if people have their documents in place , they will be left out of NRC .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ substance , that this is an attempt to rob them of their citizenship , ” Soman said .
Rais Shaikh , a member of the legislative assembly in the western Indian state of Maharashtra , said the CAA-NRC combination has created panic across the community .
“ I have had 75-year-old men and women approaching me , asking for help with documents , ” he said .
“ At least 500 people visit my office every day , expressing similar concerns .
Most of them are now running around to ready their documents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re scared of being stripped of their citizenship.
” The northeastern state of Assam is the only Indian state to have an NRC , first prepared in 1951 and updated in 2019 .
Assam ’ s 33 million residents had to substantiate their citizenship through documents , proving that they came to India before neighboring Bangladesh became an independent country in 1971 .
The final list , published in August 2019 , left 1.9 million applications out .
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom subsequently alleged that the Assam NRC was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and … to render Muslims stateless.
” The detention centers have already been constructed there .
With Assam as the precedent , the Muslim community fears persecution .
Maulana Khalid Rasheed , the head of the Islamic Centre of India in the northern Indian city of Lucknow , started a helpline two weeks ago to quell fears and create awareness among the community .
He receives at least 150 calls daily from Muslims worried about their expulsion from the country due to an absence of documents and legacy data .
“ Through the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ documents they will need to prove their citizenship .
During the Assam NRC , many were excluded owing to deficiencies in documents like spelling errors .
We tell them to ensure their papers are free of similar mistakes , ” Rasheed said .
“ Everyone is scared , especially the poor.
” Nishat Hussain , the founder of the National Muslim Women Welfare Society in Jaipur , said many Muslims are apprehensive of the future and have joined protest marches to oppose the controversial CAA/NRC .
She said many Muslims do have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passports and Aadhar cards , which have unique 12-digit identification numbers for Indian citizens .
However , these might not be enough .
“ In Assam , many were left out of the NRC despite having these documents , ” Hussain said .
“ They want decades-old documents , which are impossible to find.
” To help Muslims , the Karnataka State Board of Auqaf , a statutory body in southwestern India , has recently issued a circular to mosques , citing a need to prepare family profiles of all Muslims residing in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mosques to maintain registers with important documents of all Muslims , including birth and education certificates , voter ID cards , and ration cards , among others .
The circular notes : “ Controversies are reported regarding the inclusion and exclusion of names in the NRC .
Recent survey conducted by various NGOs reveal that larger section of citizens of the minority community are deprived of the right to vote due to non-enrolment/updation in electoral rolls of various constituencies .
Substantial number of citizens do not have the basic documents to prove their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ibrahim , the then-administrator of the board , said it is necessary for mosques to maintain a register of documents as the data of citizens in government offices can be misplaced or destroyed due to natural calamities and unforeseen incidents .
“ Many lost their documents during the Karnataka floods in August 2019 , ” he said .
For the Muslim citizens on the front line of the issue , however , no preparation seems enough .
Naseem Qureshi , a 24-year-old woman from Rajasthan , said she ’ s afraid she ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CAA/NRC exercise .
“ My parents tell me that we have our papers in place , but many of my close friends and relatives don ’ t .
What if they throw them out of the country ?
” Qureshi said .
“ They ’ re looking to split families .
”

Firoza Bano, 50, sat worried in her home in the northern Indian city of Jaipur. Born in the north Indian state of Rajasthan in 1970, she has barely traveled outside the state—but now she faces the possibility of being kicked out of her home country. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the proposed all-India National Register of Citizens (NRC) will require Bano to prove she’s Indian. If she’s unable to produce the requisite documents, she might lose her citizenship and be declared an infiltrator. At best, she might spend months in one of the detention centers being built across the country to house the newly created refugees—at worst, she could be deported to a country she’s never known or be left stateless.
Firoza Bano, 50, sat worried in her home in the northern Indian city of Jaipur. Born in the north Indian state of Rajasthan in 1970, she has barely traveled outside the state—but now she faces the possibility of being kicked out of her home country. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the proposed all-India National Register of Citizens (NRC) will require Bano to prove she’s Indian. If she’s unable to produce the requisite documents, she might lose her citizenship and be declared an infiltrator. At best, she might spend months in one of the detention centers being built across the country to house the newly created refugees—at worst, she could be deported to a country she’s never known or be left stateless.
“My mother gave birth to me at home. My birth was never registered, so how do I produce a certificate?” Bano said. “Nor do I have land ownership or tenancy records dating back five decades. Although we’re law-abiding citizens, having lived peacefully in India all our lives, we might be thrown out of the country.”
Last December, India passed the CAA, which provides a route to citizenship to members of six religious minority communities from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan—but not for Muslims. Coupled with the NRC, a supposedly definitive list of Indian citizens, the provision is facing criticism for being anti-Muslim and unconstitutional. A similar list in Assam has already been used to single out Indian-born Muslims for potential deportation. And while members of other faiths now have the shield of the CAA as a route back into Indian citizenship if they’re branded as illegal by the NRC process, Muslims have no such respite.
That’s a big problem. Even today, 38 percent of Indian children under the age of 5 do not have birth certificates. Other documents can substitute, but they’re also often lacking—especially for older people. The reasons for this are varied—lack of awareness, inaccessible registration centers, and no immediate requirement for these certificates to access social services. Government data shows that 6.8 million births were not registered in India in 2015-2016, and the situation is worse for older residents, who were born when home births were more prevalent in the country.
There’s a gulf between government rhetoric on the NRC and what critics believe—but the record of an increasingly hard-right Hindu nationalist government under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) makes the government’s word seem dubious at best. There has been a systematic scapegoating of Muslims under BJP rule. Human Rights Watch published a report in 2019, observing that the party uses “communal rhetoric” to spur “a violent vigilante campaign,” whereby radical cow protection groups lynched 44 people to death, 36 of them Muslims, between May 2015 and December 2018. Prior to its landslide win in the 2019 elections, the BJP also used religious polarization as a campaigning tool, making promises such as the expedited construction of a temple in place of a demolished mosque in Ayodhya.
After the CAA bill was signed into law, widespread protests erupted across the country, killing 25 people so far and leaving thousands in police detention. The government has downplayed the NRC, stating that it has no plans of conducting the NRC exercise across the country on religious lines.
That comes despite regular rhetoric from the BJP on supposed infiltrators from Muslim countries. In the state of West Bengal, for instance, BJP chief Dilip Ghosh recently stated that the center was committed to “throwing out” 10 million Bangladeshi Muslim “infiltrators” from the state and that those opposing the move were “anti-Hindu, anti-Bengali and anti-India.”
Addressing a huge election rally in New Delhi on Dec. 22, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the CAA/NRC had nothing to do with Indian Muslims and that “no Indian Muslims will be sent to any detention centers.” The speech was accused of being a “combination of falsehoods and half-truths.” Critics have called the CAA/NRC the “greatest act of social poisoning by a government in independent India,” aimed at making the country a Hindu state and turning a large number of Muslims into stateless subjects.
Zakia Soman, a co-founder of Bharatiya Muslim Mahila Andolan (BMMA), a nationwide rights organization for Muslims, said the “diabolical” developments have led to great apprehension in the Muslim community, which makes up 14.2 percent of the Indian population. Many Muslims have approached BMMA to understand and prepare for the repercussions. The organization has launched posters raising awareness and community meetings in 15 states across the country.
“Since CAA is so discriminatory, it has given way to fear that even if people have their documents in place, they will be left out of NRC. Ordinary people think, and not without substance, that this is an attempt to rob them of their citizenship,” Soman said.
Rais Shaikh, a member of the legislative assembly in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, said the CAA-NRC combination has created panic across the community. “I have had 75-year-old men and women approaching me, asking for help with documents,” he said. “At least 500 people visit my office every day, expressing similar concerns. Most of them are now running around to ready their documents, approaching lawyers and agents. They’re scared of being stripped of their citizenship.”
The northeastern state of Assam is the only Indian state to have an NRC, first prepared in 1951 and updated in 2019. Assam’s 33 million residents had to substantiate their citizenship through documents, proving that they came to India before neighboring Bangladesh became an independent country in 1971. The final list, published in August 2019, left 1.9 million applications out. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom subsequently alleged that the Assam NRC was a tool to “target religious minorities and … to render Muslims stateless.” The detention centers have already been constructed there.
With Assam as the precedent, the Muslim community fears persecution. Maulana Khalid Rasheed, the head of the Islamic Centre of India in the northern Indian city of Lucknow, started a helpline two weeks ago to quell fears and create awareness among the community. He receives at least 150 calls daily from Muslims worried about their expulsion from the country due to an absence of documents and legacy data.
“Through the helpline, we inform them about the documents they will need to prove their citizenship. During the Assam NRC, many were excluded owing to deficiencies in documents like spelling errors. We tell them to ensure their papers are free of similar mistakes,” Rasheed said. “Everyone is scared, especially the poor.”
Nishat Hussain, the founder of the National Muslim Women Welfare Society in Jaipur, said many Muslims are apprehensive of the future and have joined protest marches to oppose the controversial CAA/NRC. She said many Muslims do have the basic, essential documents, such as passports and Aadhar cards, which have unique 12-digit identification numbers for Indian citizens. However, these might not be enough.
“In Assam, many were left out of the NRC despite having these documents,” Hussain said. “They want decades-old documents, which are impossible to find.”
To help Muslims, the Karnataka State Board of Auqaf, a statutory body in southwestern India, has recently issued a circular to mosques, citing a need to prepare family profiles of all Muslims residing in their jurisdiction. It also calls on mosques to maintain registers with important documents of all Muslims, including birth and education certificates, voter ID cards, and ration cards, among others.
The circular notes: “Controversies are reported regarding the inclusion and exclusion of names in the NRC. Recent survey conducted by various NGOs reveal that larger section of citizens of the minority community are deprived of the right to vote due to non-enrolment/updation in electoral rolls of various constituencies. Substantial number of citizens do not have the basic documents to prove their domicile in the locality.”
A.B. Ibrahim, the then-administrator of the board, said it is necessary for mosques to maintain a register of documents as the data of citizens in government offices can be misplaced or destroyed due to natural calamities and unforeseen incidents. “Many lost their documents during the Karnataka floods in August 2019,” he said.
For the Muslim citizens on the front line of the issue, however, no preparation seems enough. Naseem Qureshi, a 24-year-old woman from Rajasthan, said she’s afraid she’ll lose her loved ones to the CAA/NRC exercise. “My parents tell me that we have our papers in place, but many of my close friends and relatives don’t. What if they throw them out of the country?” Qureshi said. “They’re looking to split families.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-21--Pompeo Announces Taliban Peace Deal Plan

The United States appears one step closer to extricating itself from a war in Afghanistan that has spanned nearly two decades and cost thousands of lives and an estimated $ 2 trillion .
Washington plans to sign a peace deal with the Taliban on Feb. 29 following the successful implementation of a countrywide reduction in violence , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Friday .
It comes after months of grueling negotiations with the Taliban , led by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and hosted in Qatar .
“ U.S .
negotiators in Doha have come to an understanding with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reduction in violence across Afghanistan , ” Pompeo said in a statement .
“ Upon a successful implementation of this understanding , signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement is expected to move forward.
” What remains unclear is whether the peace negotiations to follow will make the current Afghan government a full partner , an issue that has long been a sticking point , as the Taliban refuse to formally recognize Kabul ’ s authority .
Once the agreement is signed on Feb. 29 , Pompeo said , “ Intra-Afghan negotiations will start soon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fundamental step to deliver a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and the future political roadmap for Afghanistan.
” Khalilzad , speaking at a United Nations conference in Pakistan this week , said he remained “ cautiously optimistic ” about the peace talks with the Taliban , but he warned that there were potential “ spoilers ” who would seek to derail a reduction in violence and peace .
It wouldn ’ t be the first time .
Eighteen years of war have been marked by sweeping promises from successive U.S. leaders of victory and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stalemates , setbacks , and abject failure .
When the United States first went to war in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 , then-President George W. Bush vowed to dismantle terrorist operations and roll back control of the Taliban .
Now , over 18 years later , the Taliban have gained ground and control or contest much of the country , despite billions of dollars of investment from the United States and its NATO allies .
Over 2,400 American soldiers , 1,000 soldiers from NATO and other allied countries , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the conflict .
Opium production , a key source of revenue for the Taliban , has expanded rapidly in recent years despite over $ 10 billion invested in counternarcotics operations that the U.S. government watchdog overseeing Afghanistan reconstruction has labeled a “ failure.
” Under Taliban rule before 2001 , opium production was almost completely eradicated .
Now , about 80 percent of the world ’ s illicit opium originates in Afghanistan .
Corruption is endemic in Afghanistan ’ s shaky democratic institutions , hobbling a nationwide economy where over 25 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the poverty line despite tens of billions of dollars of U.S. and international economic development support .
“ Afghanistan still needs to treat the cancer of corruption if its government is to sustain the donor support it needs to survive , ” John Sopko , the U.S. special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction , wrote in his quarterly report to Congress last month .
Afghanistan ’ s political divides add another layer of complication to the prospects for peace .
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani narrowly won national elections in September 2019 , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week .
But his top political rival , Abdullah Abdullah , the chief executive in the unity government , contested the results and announced he was forming his own administration .
The current peace deal is nearly the same as one brokered in September that President Donald Trump canceled after a U.S. soldier was killed .
Since then , there has been no let up in fighting .
Now , the United States and the Taliban have agreed to a weeklong reduction in violence , though the United States will continue counterterrorism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terrorist groups .
If the reduction in violence—which both the United States and Taliban are careful not to label as a cease-fire—holds , both sides will sign a peace deal .
The deal reportedly calls for a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops over 18 months , and the Taliban ’ s pledge not to harbor terrorist groups targeting the West .
The United States has about 12,000 troops remaining in Afghanistan , down from a peak of more than 100,000 in 2011 .
If the peace deal holds , talks between the Taliban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is a critical test of the Taliban ’ s willingness and ability to reduce violence , and contribute to peace in good faith , ” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement on Friday .
“ This could pave the way for negotiations among Afghans , sustainable peace , and ensuring the country is never again a safe haven for terrorists .
”

The United States appears one step closer to extricating itself from a war in Afghanistan that has spanned nearly two decades and cost thousands of lives and an estimated $2 trillion.
The United States appears one step closer to extricating itself from a war in Afghanistan that has spanned nearly two decades and cost thousands of lives and an estimated $2 trillion.
Washington plans to sign a peace deal with the Taliban on Feb. 29 following the successful implementation of a countrywide reduction in violence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Friday. It comes after months of grueling negotiations with the Taliban, led by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and hosted in Qatar.
“U.S. negotiators in Doha have come to an understanding with the Taliban on a significant and nationwide reduction in violence across Afghanistan,” Pompeo said in a statement. “Upon a successful implementation of this understanding, signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement is expected to move forward.”
What remains unclear is whether the peace negotiations to follow will make the current Afghan government a full partner, an issue that has long been a sticking point, as the Taliban refuse to formally recognize Kabul’s authority. Once the agreement is signed on Feb. 29, Pompeo said, “Intra-Afghan negotiations will start soon thereafter, and will build on this fundamental step to deliver a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and the future political roadmap for Afghanistan.”
Khalilzad, speaking at a United Nations conference in Pakistan this week, said he remained “cautiously optimistic” about the peace talks with the Taliban, but he warned that there were potential “spoilers” who would seek to derail a reduction in violence and peace. It wouldn’t be the first time.
Eighteen years of war have been marked by sweeping promises from successive U.S. leaders of victory and withdrawal of U.S. forces, followed by stalemates, setbacks, and abject failure.
When the United States first went to war in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, then-President George W. Bush vowed to dismantle terrorist operations and roll back control of the Taliban. Now, over 18 years later, the Taliban have gained ground and control or contest much of the country, despite billions of dollars of investment from the United States and its NATO allies. Over 2,400 American soldiers, 1,000 soldiers from NATO and other allied countries, and 38,000 Afghan civilians have died in the conflict.
Opium production, a key source of revenue for the Taliban, has expanded rapidly in recent years despite over $10 billion invested in counternarcotics operations that the U.S. government watchdog overseeing Afghanistan reconstruction has labeled a “failure.” Under Taliban rule before 2001, opium production was almost completely eradicated. Now, about 80 percent of the world’s illicit opium originates in Afghanistan.
Corruption is endemic in Afghanistan’s shaky democratic institutions, hobbling a nationwide economy where over 25 percent of Afghans are unemployed and many remain below the poverty line despite tens of billions of dollars of U.S. and international economic development support. “Afghanistan still needs to treat the cancer of corruption if its government is to sustain the donor support it needs to survive,” John Sopko, the U.S. special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, wrote in his quarterly report to Congress last month.
Afghanistan’s political divides add another layer of complication to the prospects for peace. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani narrowly won national elections in September 2019, according to long-delayed election results that were released this week. But his top political rival, Abdullah Abdullah, the chief executive in the unity government, contested the results and announced he was forming his own administration.
The current peace deal is nearly the same as one brokered in September that President Donald Trump canceled after a U.S. soldier was killed. Since then, there has been no let up in fighting.
Now, the United States and the Taliban have agreed to a weeklong reduction in violence, though the United States will continue counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups. If the reduction in violence—which both the United States and Taliban are careful not to label as a cease-fire—holds, both sides will sign a peace deal. The deal reportedly calls for a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops over 18 months, and the Taliban’s pledge not to harbor terrorist groups targeting the West. The United States has about 12,000 troops remaining in Afghanistan, down from a peak of more than 100,000 in 2011. If the peace deal holds, talks between the Taliban and Afghan government will begin.
“This is a critical test of the Taliban’s willingness and ability to reduce violence, and contribute to peace in good faith,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement on Friday. “This could pave the way for negotiations among Afghans, sustainable peace, and ensuring the country is never again a safe haven for terrorists.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-21--Boris Johnson’s New Immigration Rules Will Harm Britain’s Economy

Britain ’ s decision to leave the European Union was motivated in large part by a desire to “ take back control ” of immigration .
The voters in northern English towns who switched to the pro-Brexit Conservatives in last December ’ s general election , providing Prime Minister Boris Johnson with his decisive parliamentary majority , are particularly hostile to immigrants .
They accuse low-skilled Eastern Europeans in particular of depressing local wages and straining public services such as health care .
So the political rationale for the U.K. government to cut migration from the EU and deny entry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economic cost of its new skills-focused , points-based immigration policy is likely to be large .
The British economy is reliant on immigrants to do jobs that not enough locals are able—or willing—to do .
Overall , long-term immigration for work has averaged more than 200,000 a year since 2010 .
More than one-third of doctors , pharmacists , and dentists in the U.K. are foreign-born , as are more than 20 percent of nurses .
Seven in 10 workers in the meat-processing industry are from the EU .
Structural demand for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.K. is compounded by a cyclically tight labor market .
Even though the economy has stagnated since the Brexit vote in June 2016 , the unemployment rate fell to a mere 3.8 percent in the final quarter of 2019 .
Immigrants ’ growing contribution to Britain ’ s economy and society has largely happened despite successive governments ’ immigration policies , not thanks to them .
As any foreigners who have had to apply for a U.K. visa can testify , Britain has a particularly dysfunctional immigration system .
It is unduly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrictive—not to mention economically misguided and politically mismanaged .
But until now , the harmful rigidity of the system for migrants from outside the EU was partly offset by the flexibility it offered to EU citizens coming to work in the U.K. Poles , Portuguese , Romanians , and other Europeans didn ’ t need to jump through bureaucratic hoops to obtain a U.K. work visa ; they could just turn up and apply for any job of any skill level , or start working on a self-employed basis , almost as easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A comprehensive study by the British government ’ s independent Migration Advisory Committee found that these much-maligned EU migrants typically do not take local jobs away from residents or depress local wages .
Nor has their hard work led employers to skimp on training British workers .
EU migrants also pay more in taxes than they receive in welfare benefits .
And they are particularly large contributors to public services such as health and social care , both financially and as workers .
Beginning next year , however , the U.K. ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also apply to those from the EU .
While the admission criteria for skilled workers are set to be loosened somewhat , government proposals published earlier this week would make it impossible for almost all low-skilled migrants to obtain a work visa .
One exception is a scheme that would admit 10,000 seasonal agricultural workers a year , far fewer than British farmers currently hire .
Sold as an “ Australian-style points-based system , ” because this plays well with voters who think it sounds tough and fair , the new British system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s .
To obtain a work visa , skilled migrants will need to speak sufficient English and have a job offer at an appropriate skill level from an approved U.K. sponsor .
This will need to pay at least 25,600 pounds ( $ 33,000 ) or the “ going rate ” in their sector , if this is higher .
The salary threshold is lower—a minimum of 20,480 pounds ( $ 26,000 ) —for jobs in designated shortage areas ( such as nursing ) and for applicants with a Ph.D. , especially in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the very least , the shift will be disruptive for sectors such as food processing and hospitality that rely on a churn of relatively low-paid , less-skilled migrant workers .
While EU citizens who arrive in the U.K. before the end of the year will be allowed to stay permanently if they apply for the requisite “ settled status , ” those who leave again , as many do each year , will not readily be replaced .
Among the hardest-hit sectors will be care for the elderly .
With the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to soar , care work is the occupation with the most projected employment growth in coming years .
These workers are already in short supply , with care homes bemoaning that they receive scarcely any suitable local applicants .
That ’ s because wiping seniors ’ bottoms , shaving white beards , lifting frail people in and out of bed , and other crucial but menial tasks are not what most young Britons aspire to do .
Glibly , the government has insisted that instead of relying on immigrants , employers should invest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and … technology and automation.
” Yet in the care sector , budgets are largely determined by government funding , which is not being increased .
That leaves little scope for wage increases , which would probably need to be large to attract local applicants for jobs they currently deem undesirable .
As for automation , while Japan is pioneering the use of robots to care for the elderly , these solutions remain prohibitively expensive , because machines can not perform many simple tasks that human carers can , and they have so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them .
Wiping seniors ’ bottoms , shaving white beards , lifting frail people in and out of bed , and other crucial but menial tasks are not what most young Britons aspire to do .
The bigger picture is that under the guise of creating a future-focused and fairer immigration system that seeks to attract the “ brightest and best ” foreigners and treats EU and non-EU migrants equally , the U.K. is actually seeking to turn away ever more of the industrious and enterprising individuals who help power its economy and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ graying population .
That is perverse .
Thanks to their youth and diversity of skills and ideas , both less-skilled and high-skilled migrants tend to boost GDP per person in receiving countries , and thus the living standards of locals across the income spectrum .
Research by the International Monetary Fund , which found that a 1 percent increase in the foreign-born population raises GDP per capita by 2 percent , suggests that immigrants to the U.K. have made British people nearly 30 percent richer .
As Conservatives who believe in free markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rarely any good at picking winners—not least divining immigrants ’ potential .
Take Sushil and Anjana Patel , who arrived in the U.K. in the 1960s from Uganda with few qualifications .
Had they been required to apply for a U.K. work visa under the proposed new immigration system , they would have been denied entry .
They wouldn ’ t have gone on to build a successful chain of newsagents across the country , and their daughter Priti would not have become Britain ’ s home secretary—and the architect of a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own family out .
“ The policies are changing , ” Patel said , when confronted with the irony .
Indeed , they are .

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union was motivated in large part by a desire to “take back control” of immigration. The voters in northern English towns who switched to the pro-Brexit Conservatives in last December’s general election, providing Prime Minister Boris Johnson with his decisive parliamentary majority, are particularly hostile to immigrants. They accuse low-skilled Eastern Europeans in particular of depressing local wages and straining public services such as health care. So the political rationale for the U.K. government to cut migration from the EU and deny entry to low-skilled foreigners is clear. But the economic cost of its new skills-focused, points-based immigration policy is likely to be large.
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union was motivated in large part by a desire to “take back control” of immigration. The voters in northern English towns who switched to the pro-Brexit Conservatives in last December’s general election, providing Prime Minister Boris Johnson with his decisive parliamentary majority, are particularly hostile to immigrants. They accuse low-skilled Eastern Europeans in particular of depressing local wages and straining public services such as health care. So the political rationale for the U.K. government to cut migration from the EU and deny entry to low-skilled foreigners is clear. But the economic cost of its new skills-focused, points-based immigration policy is likely to be large.
The British economy is reliant on immigrants to do jobs that not enough locals are able—or willing—to do. Overall, long-term immigration for work has averaged more than 200,000 a year since 2010. More than one-third of doctors, pharmacists, and dentists in the U.K. are foreign-born, as are more than 20 percent of nurses. Seven in 10 workers in the meat-processing industry are from the EU. Structural demand for types of workers in short supply in the U.K. is compounded by a cyclically tight labor market. Even though the economy has stagnated since the Brexit vote in June 2016, the unemployment rate fell to a mere 3.8 percent in the final quarter of 2019.
Immigrants’ growing contribution to Britain’s economy and society has largely happened despite successive governments’ immigration policies, not thanks to them. As any foreigners who have had to apply for a U.K. visa can testify, Britain has a particularly dysfunctional immigration system. It is unduly slow, costly, burdensome, and restrictive—not to mention economically misguided and politically mismanaged.
But until now, the harmful rigidity of the system for migrants from outside the EU was partly offset by the flexibility it offered to EU citizens coming to work in the U.K. Poles, Portuguese, Romanians, and other Europeans didn’t need to jump through bureaucratic hoops to obtain a U.K. work visa; they could just turn up and apply for any job of any skill level, or start working on a self-employed basis, almost as easily as Californians moving to Colorado can.
A comprehensive study by the British government’s independent Migration Advisory Committee found that these much-maligned EU migrants typically do not take local jobs away from residents or depress local wages. Nor has their hard work led employers to skimp on training British workers. EU migrants also pay more in taxes than they receive in welfare benefits. And they are particularly large contributors to public services such as health and social care, both financially and as workers.
Beginning next year, however, the U.K.’s Byzantine immigration system for non-EU migrants will also apply to those from the EU. While the admission criteria for skilled workers are set to be loosened somewhat, government proposals published earlier this week would make it impossible for almost all low-skilled migrants to obtain a work visa. One exception is a scheme that would admit 10,000 seasonal agricultural workers a year, far fewer than British farmers currently hire.
Sold as an “Australian-style points-based system,” because this plays well with voters who think it sounds tough and fair, the new British system is actually very different from Australia’s. To obtain a work visa, skilled migrants will need to speak sufficient English and have a job offer at an appropriate skill level from an approved U.K. sponsor. This will need to pay at least 25,600 pounds ($33,000) or the “going rate” in their sector, if this is higher. The salary threshold is lower—a minimum of 20,480 pounds ($26,000)—for jobs in designated shortage areas (such as nursing) and for applicants with a Ph.D., especially in a science or technology subject.
At the very least, the shift will be disruptive for sectors such as food processing and hospitality that rely on a churn of relatively low-paid, less-skilled migrant workers. While EU citizens who arrive in the U.K. before the end of the year will be allowed to stay permanently if they apply for the requisite “settled status,” those who leave again, as many do each year, will not readily be replaced.
Among the hardest-hit sectors will be care for the elderly. With the number of British seniors in need of care continuing to soar, care work is the occupation with the most projected employment growth in coming years. These workers are already in short supply, with care homes bemoaning that they receive scarcely any suitable local applicants. That’s because wiping seniors’ bottoms, shaving white beards, lifting frail people in and out of bed, and other crucial but menial tasks are not what most young Britons aspire to do.
Glibly, the government has insisted that instead of relying on immigrants, employers should invest in “staff retention, productivity, and … technology and automation.” Yet in the care sector, budgets are largely determined by government funding, which is not being increased. That leaves little scope for wage increases, which would probably need to be large to attract local applicants for jobs they currently deem undesirable. As for automation, while Japan is pioneering the use of robots to care for the elderly, these solutions remain prohibitively expensive, because machines cannot perform many simple tasks that human carers can, and they have so far complemented human carers, not replaced them.
Wiping seniors’ bottoms, shaving white beards, lifting frail people in and out of bed, and other crucial but menial tasks are not what most young Britons aspire to do.
The bigger picture is that under the guise of creating a future-focused and fairer immigration system that seeks to attract the “brightest and best” foreigners and treats EU and non-EU migrants equally, the U.K. is actually seeking to turn away ever more of the industrious and enterprising individuals who help power its economy and provide for the basic needs of its graying population.
That is perverse. Thanks to their youth and diversity of skills and ideas, both less-skilled and high-skilled migrants tend to boost GDP per person in receiving countries, and thus the living standards of locals across the income spectrum. Research by the International Monetary Fund, which found that a 1 percent increase in the foreign-born population raises GDP per capita by 2 percent, suggests that immigrants to the U.K. have made British people nearly 30 percent richer.
As Conservatives who believe in free markets purport to know, government bureaucrats are rarely any good at picking winners—not least divining immigrants’ potential. Take Sushil and Anjana Patel, who arrived in the U.K. in the 1960s from Uganda with few qualifications. Had they been required to apply for a U.K. work visa under the proposed new immigration system, they would have been denied entry. They wouldn’t have gone on to build a successful chain of newsagents across the country, and their daughter Priti would not have become Britain’s home secretary—and the architect of a new immigration system that would have kept her own family out.
“The policies are changing,” Patel said, when confronted with the irony. Indeed, they are.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-22--Our Top Weekend Reads

Our Top Weekend Reads

The Chinese government ’ s continued efforts to repress information about the coronavirus have helped it spread to other parts of the world .
Meanwhile , a potential trade deal between India and the United States could be undermined by U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s personal trade agenda .
And ordinary Afghans worry that the U.S.-Taliban peace talks could eventually lead to another round of civil war in the country .
Once praised for its quick , transparent response to the coronavirus , China now faces international vilification and potential domestic unrest over its failure to stop the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writes .
2 .
Is Trump Putting U.S.-India Partnership at Risk Ahead of Visit ?
India and the United States hope to reach a trade agreement this month , but experts question whether the larger strategic relationship is being sacrificed to Trump ’ s own trade demands , Foreign Policy ’ s Keith Johnson writes .
The Taiwanese reserves are so dysfunctional that few experts believe they can make a real military contribution in the event of a war .
These problems are mostly ignored by Taiwan ’ s political leadership , Paul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Harsh Border Policies Are Pushing Refugees All the Way to Rwanda The European Union ’ s hardening border policy forces refugees back to Libya , where they live at the mercy of roving militias .
Now , refugees are being resettled as far south as Rwanda , Sally Hayden reports .
In early 2003 , the George W. Bush administration began refocusing its military resources away from Afghanistan and toward Iraq , opening a vacuum that the Taliban readily filled , Foreign Policy ’ s Michael Hirsh writes .

The Chinese government’s continued efforts to repress information about the coronavirus have helped it spread to other parts of the world.
The Chinese government’s continued efforts to repress information about the coronavirus have helped it spread to other parts of the world.
Meanwhile, a potential trade deal between India and the United States could be undermined by U.S. President Donald Trump’s personal trade agenda.
And ordinary Afghans worry that the U.S.-Taliban peace talks could eventually lead to another round of civil war in the country.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top weekend reads.
Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects prevention and control work against the new coronavirus in Beijing on Feb. 10.
Once praised for its quick, transparent response to the coronavirus, China now faces international vilification and potential domestic unrest over its failure to stop the virus, Foreign Policy’s Laurie Garrett writes.
U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at U.N. headquarters in New York on Sept. 24, 2019.
India and the United States hope to reach a trade agreement this month, but experts question whether the larger strategic relationship is being sacrificed to Trump’s own trade demands, Foreign Policy’s Keith Johnson writes.
Taiwanese soldiers run through colored smoke during an exercise at a military base in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, on Jan. 15.
The Taiwanese reserves are so dysfunctional that few experts believe they can make a real military contribution in the event of a war. These problems are mostly ignored by Taiwan’s political leadership, Paul Huang writes.
Asylum seekers evacuated from Libya gather at the Gashora Emergency Transit Center during a visit by permanent representatives of the African Union in Bugesera district, southeast of Rwanda's capital, Kigali, on Oct. 23, 2019.
The European Union’s hardening border policy forces refugees back to Libya, where they live at the mercy of roving militias. Now, refugees are being resettled as far south as Rwanda, Sally Hayden reports.
Soldiers lift a coffin into a van during the dignified transfer of two U.S. soldiers killed in Afghanistan
In early 2003, the George W. Bush administration began refocusing its military resources away from Afghanistan and toward Iraq, opening a vacuum that the Taliban readily filled, Foreign Policy’s Michael Hirsh writes.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-22--North Korea Isn’t Ready for Coronavirus Devastation

COVID-19 is putting Northeast Asia in the headlines .
After its opaque and authoritarian response failed to contain the virus in Hubei province , China has virtually shut down the entire country .
Japan ’ s bureaucratic response to the Diamond Princess cruise ship at the port of Yokohama was so incompetent that several countries sent planes to rescue their nationals .
And after initially holding on relatively well , South Korea is facing a wave of newly discovered cases , spread among members of a religious cult who are less than forthcoming with their symptoms .
Yet North Korea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is curiously absent from the coronavirus-related news .
In some ways this is not surprising ; news rarely travels out of perhaps the world ’ s most sealed-off country .
But it is worth paying attention to how Pyongyang handles the epidemic , as crises tend to open up surprising new possibilities .
North Korea claims it has no cases of coronavirus , according to its propaganda channels .
The Pyongyang office of the World Health Organization said they received no report of an infection .
North Korea did institute perhaps the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from China , the source of the outbreak : closing its border altogether and harshly enforcing quarantines .
South Korean media reported that Kim Jong Un , the North Korean leader , had an official executed for violating the quarantine after the official returned from a trip to China—although such reports have proved dubious in the past .
But if North Korea ’ s response to a different recent epidemic is any indication , it is unlikely that North Korea is free of COVID-19 .
North Korea ’ s rudimentary public health system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major outbreak .
In May 2019 , the African swine fever that decimated China ’ s pig farms reached North Korea .
By late September 2019 , South Korea ’ s spy agency reported that African swine fever had spread throughout the country and every head of hog in North Pyongan province , bordering China , was destroyed .
Even if Pyongyang ’ s claims it has detected no coronavirus cases are true , it may reflect North Korea ’ s inability to test for the disease rather than the true absence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ specific primers and relatively sophisticated labs—both of which North Korea likely lacks , especially if relations with China are strained by the border closure .
The coronavirus outbreak also hurts North Korea in other ways .
Shutting down its border with China is effectively an embargo upon itself , as more than 90 percent of North Korea ’ s trade is with China .
It also puts a major damper on Kim ’ s recent initiative to host Chinese tourists .
Since Pyongyang failed to obtain sanctions relief at the 2019 Hanoi summit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s regime has been pursuing tourism , one of the few remaining avenues through which it could generate trade and foreign currency .
Unlike selling raw materials and products such as coal and textiles , tourism is not subject to sanctions .
As long as North Korea can make itself attractive enough for visitors , tourism could potentially be a cash cow for the Kim regime .
North Korea signaled the intention to pursue tourism in October 2019 , when it announced it would demolish the “ unpleasant-looking ” South Korean facilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been abandoned since 2008 after a North Korean soldier shot and killed a South Korean tourist visiting the resort .
Although some viewed the move as a sign of Pyongyang ’ s displeasure with Seoul , Thae Yong Ho , a former high-ranking North Korean diplomat , saw a different motive .
Thae said Kim was probably trying to promote tourism from China by renovating the decrepit facilities at Mount Kumgang .
Time proved Thae correct .
By the end of 2019 and early 2020 , North Korea opened a host of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ski resort in Samjiyon and a spa resort in Yangdok .
COVID-19 , however , upended Kim ’ s plan .
By shutting down its borders , Pyongyang also shut down any hope of making a return on the investment that it made into building the resorts—a significant burden for North Korea ’ s impoverished economy .
Signaling his desperation , Kim went so far as to send a personal letter of encouragement to Chinese President Xi Jinping along with a cash gift , trying to stay on China ’ s good side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tourism as soon as practicable .
But the move will likely have been received poorly in Beijing nevertheless—perhaps contrasted with an equally vulnerable Cambodia ’ s decision to keep its borders open and its nationals in Wuhan .
For those who care about denuclearizing North Korea , this may present an opportunity for diplomacy .
This isn ’ t to take a callous approach toward an epidemic that has already claimed more than 2,000 lives ; fighting the virus is the first priority .
But Rahm Emanuel was onto something when he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis go to waste .
And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.
” The United States has tried mightily to separate North Korea from China , its chief patron .
Now , the coronavirus epidemic is doing the job that the United States failed to do .
Recall that denuclearization talks with North Korea made the most progress in 2018 , after China spent much of 2017 supporting the U.N. Security Council ’ s sanctions against North Korea as Beijing became @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Korea ’ s nuclear program .
Conversely , the negotiations stalled as China ’ s relationship with North Korea improved in 2018 and 2019 .
In practice , North Korea ’ s border shutdown is acting like a sanction on North Korea ’ s trade with China .
The impact of the shutdown goes beyond tourism ; even smuggling across the China-North Korea border has become virtually impossible .
The guard posts along the border have received orders that “ people , freight , nothing can come in or go out , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a North Korean defector who is now a journalist in South Korea .
This makes it the right moment for the United States and its allies to extend a helping hand .
The underappreciated fact about sanctions is that they are effective only if they are eventually lifted .
Never-ending sanctions and isolation achieve nothing ; the point of imposing sanctions is to gradually lift them over time in exchange for a gradual change of behavior .
This moment , when North Korea is more isolated than ever from its most important ally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States to drive a wedge between Pyongyang and Beijing .
The beauty of this is that helping North Korea in this situation requires no formal change in U.S. policy at all .
No sanctions need to be lifted , as medical and humanitarian assistance is not subject to their restraints .
In addition to medical aid , the United States and South Korea may offer to open tourism for Americans and South Koreans to visit North Korea ’ s newly constructed resorts when the viral epidemic is over .
Doing so would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from its trade dependence to China , gradually pulling it toward the United States ’ sphere of influence .
Ultimately , denuclearization of North Korea can be achieved only after Washington and Seoul establish a peaceful relationship with Pyongyang .
Establishing such a “ peace regime ” is doubly beneficial , as it serves as a check against the increasingly illiberal and assertive China .
Not even the most well-designed sanctions regime could have achieved the level of isolation that North Korea is currently experiencing .
The United States should not miss this @ @ @ @

COVID-19 is putting Northeast Asia in the headlines. After its opaque and authoritarian response failed to contain the virus in Hubei province, China has virtually shut down the entire country. Japan’s bureaucratic response to the Diamond Princess cruise ship at the port of Yokohama was so incompetent that several countries sent planes to rescue their nationals. And after initially holding on relatively well, South Korea is facing a wave of newly discovered cases, spread among members of a religious cult who are less than forthcoming with their symptoms.
COVID-19 is putting Northeast Asia in the headlines. After its opaque and authoritarian response failed to contain the virus in Hubei province, China has virtually shut down the entire country. Japan’s bureaucratic response to the Diamond Princess cruise ship at the port of Yokohama was so incompetent that several countries sent planes to rescue their nationals. And after initially holding on relatively well, South Korea is facing a wave of newly discovered cases, spread among members of a religious cult who are less than forthcoming with their symptoms.
Yet North Korea, the usual headline-maker of Northeast Asia, is curiously absent from the coronavirus-related news. In some ways this is not surprising; news rarely travels out of perhaps the world’s most sealed-off country. But it is worth paying attention to how Pyongyang handles the epidemic, as crises tend to open up surprising new possibilities.
North Korea claims it has no cases of coronavirus, according to its propaganda channels. The Pyongyang office of the World Health Organization said they received no report of an infection. North Korea did institute perhaps the most draconian measure to cut itself off from China, the source of the outbreak: closing its border altogether and harshly enforcing quarantines. South Korean media reported that Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, had an official executed for violating the quarantine after the official returned from a trip to China—although such reports have proved dubious in the past.
But if North Korea’s response to a different recent epidemic is any indication, it is unlikely that North Korea is free of COVID-19. North Korea’s rudimentary public health system simply lacks the ability to contain a major outbreak. In May 2019, the African swine fever that decimated China’s pig farms reached North Korea. By late September 2019, South Korea’s spy agency reported that African swine fever had spread throughout the country and every head of hog in North Pyongan province, bordering China, was destroyed. Even if Pyongyang’s claims it has detected no coronavirus cases are true, it may reflect North Korea’s inability to test for the disease rather than the true absence of it. Testing for the virus requires specific primers and relatively sophisticated labs—both of which North Korea likely lacks, especially if relations with China are strained by the border closure.
The coronavirus outbreak also hurts North Korea in other ways. Shutting down its border with China is effectively an embargo upon itself, as more than 90 percent of North Korea’s trade is with China. It also puts a major damper on Kim’s recent initiative to host Chinese tourists. Since Pyongyang failed to obtain sanctions relief at the 2019 Hanoi summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, Kim’s regime has been pursuing tourism, one of the few remaining avenues through which it could generate trade and foreign currency. Unlike selling raw materials and products such as coal and textiles, tourism is not subject to sanctions. As long as North Korea can make itself attractive enough for visitors, tourism could potentially be a cash cow for the Kim regime.
North Korea signaled the intention to pursue tourism in October 2019, when it announced it would demolish the “unpleasant-looking” South Korean facilities at the Mount Kumgang resort, which had been abandoned since 2008 after a North Korean soldier shot and killed a South Korean tourist visiting the resort. Although some viewed the move as a sign of Pyongyang’s displeasure with Seoul, Thae Yong Ho, a former high-ranking North Korean diplomat, saw a different motive. Thae said Kim was probably trying to promote tourism from China by renovating the decrepit facilities at Mount Kumgang. Time proved Thae correct. By the end of 2019 and early 2020, North Korea opened a host of new tourist attractions, such as a ski resort in Samjiyon and a spa resort in Yangdok.
COVID-19, however, upended Kim’s plan. By shutting down its borders, Pyongyang also shut down any hope of making a return on the investment that it made into building the resorts—a significant burden for North Korea’s impoverished economy. Signaling his desperation, Kim went so far as to send a personal letter of encouragement to Chinese President Xi Jinping along with a cash gift, trying to stay on China’s good side during the border closure and resume Chinese tourism as soon as practicable. But the move will likely have been received poorly in Beijing nevertheless—perhaps contrasted with an equally vulnerable Cambodia’s decision to keep its borders open and its nationals in Wuhan.
For those who care about denuclearizing North Korea, this may present an opportunity for diplomacy. This isn’t to take a callous approach toward an epidemic that has already claimed more than 2,000 lives; fighting the virus is the first priority. But Rahm Emanuel was onto something when he said: “You never want a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.” The United States has tried mightily to separate North Korea from China, its chief patron. Now, the coronavirus epidemic is doing the job that the United States failed to do.
Recall that denuclearization talks with North Korea made the most progress in 2018, after China spent much of 2017 supporting the U.N. Security Council’s sanctions against North Korea as Beijing became increasingly concerned with the destabilizing effects of North Korea’s nuclear program. Conversely, the negotiations stalled as China’s relationship with North Korea improved in 2018 and 2019. In practice, North Korea’s border shutdown is acting like a sanction on North Korea’s trade with China. The impact of the shutdown goes beyond tourism; even smuggling across the China-North Korea border has become virtually impossible. The guard posts along the border have received orders that “people, freight, nothing can come in or go out,” according to Kang Mi Jin, a North Korean defector who is now a journalist in South Korea.
This makes it the right moment for the United States and its allies to extend a helping hand. The underappreciated fact about sanctions is that they are effective only if they are eventually lifted. Never-ending sanctions and isolation achieve nothing; the point of imposing sanctions is to gradually lift them over time in exchange for a gradual change of behavior. This moment, when North Korea is more isolated than ever from its most important ally, offers the greatest opportunity for the United States to drive a wedge between Pyongyang and Beijing.
The beauty of this is that helping North Korea in this situation requires no formal change in U.S. policy at all. No sanctions need to be lifted, as medical and humanitarian assistance is not subject to their restraints. In addition to medical aid, the United States and South Korea may offer to open tourism for Americans and South Koreans to visit North Korea’s newly constructed resorts when the viral epidemic is over. Doing so would begin the process of weaning North Korea from its trade dependence to China, gradually pulling it toward the United States’ sphere of influence.
Ultimately, denuclearization of North Korea can be achieved only after Washington and Seoul establish a peaceful relationship with Pyongyang. Establishing such a “peace regime” is doubly beneficial, as it serves as a check against the increasingly illiberal and assertive China. Not even the most well-designed sanctions regime could have achieved the level of isolation that North Korea is currently experiencing. The United States should not miss this window of opportunity.