Why Fascists Fail

Joe Biden , who is way ahead in the polls , has called it his “ single greatest concern.
” What if Donald Trump refuses to leave office freely if Biden , the presumptive Democratic nominee , wins the November election ?
Last weekend , the president openly suggested to Fox News that he might not accept the results , declaring : “ I ’ m not going to just say yes .
I ’ m not going to say no.
” Indeed Trump is already working to invalidate the 2020 tally , accusing Democrats of plotting fraud through mail-in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic , and legal challenges are mounting at an unprecedented rate .
Moreover , Trump has spent his entire first term trampling over the institutions of American democracy , obstructing justice and defying Congress and the courts and crying “ coup !
” every time he ’ s investigated .
Alternatively , what if Trump doesn ’ t seize power illegally but is actually reelected ?
Surely that would amount to a virtual mandate , in his mind , to ignore the Constitution and the law of the land altogether .
Plenty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Vladimir Putin—have made mincemeat of vulnerable democratic systems to install themselves as autocrats .
For more than four years , legions of Trump critics have accused him of having fascist tendencies , and American democracy now appears badly wounded , if not broken , and vulnerable to further manipulation , especially since Trump has turned the Republican Party into little more than a cheerleader for his personal aggrandizement .
Fascism , as the Yale University scholar Jason Stanley has written , “ is not a new threat , but rather a permanent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and actions indicate that he ’ s sorely tempted to emulate autocrats he admires around the world .
One never knows for sure when Trump is joking—he insists he is whenever he is criticized for saying something especially controversial—but in 2018 Trump spoke glowingly of Xi Jinping ’ s brutal consolidation of power in China and his title of “ president for life.
” “ I think it ’ s great .
Maybe we ’ ll have to give that a shot someday , ” Trump said .
So let ’ s suppose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ author Mary Trump , calls him the “ world ’ s most dangerous man ” —really does attempt to embrace his inner fascist in the coming months .
The good news is that history tells us he will almost certainly fail in the end , especially since Trump possesses nothing like the fearsome competence or detailed programs of fascists past .
Fascism in its various forms has no enduring record of success in the long run ; based on the evidence , it is almost always doomed to destroy itself in an orgy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hitler and Mussolini did .
Other fascists or strongmen who stayed in power longer , like Francisco Franco of Spain and Turkey ’ s Kemal Ataturk , did so by wisely changing course or because they were misunderstood and weren ’ t really fascists at all for much of their careers , some scholars say .
By itself , “ fascism is difficult to work in practice because it always has grandiose visions inconsistent with reality , upon whose shores it crashes , ” Stanley , the author of How Fascism Works , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an effective means to gaining power , but fascists typically destroy themselves before long , especially when crises erupt .
“ We are seeing that with COVID-19 in the United States and Brazil , ” Stanley said .
Stanley ’ s 2018 book is a detailed look at the broad concept of fascism , which he defines as ultranationalism embodied in one leader and movement , and at the kind of politics that fascism typically practices .
These strategies are familiar to anyone who has observed Trump ’ s rise : inventing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , playing up national victimhood and the need for law and order , appealing to the heartland , and fomenting division , especially by attacking immigrants and liberal elites .
Like Trump , fascists almost always promise to “ drain the swamp ” by concocting false charges of corruption , as the U.S. president did against Hillary Clinton and is now doing against Biden .
Above all , Stanley says , fascist politics is about identifying enemies , appealing to an insecure majority group like America ’ s white population , and destroying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As Mussolini said in a 1922 speech , to create a fascist national myth “ it is not necessary for it to be a reality.
” Such words are like song to Donald Trump .
In his book , Stanley invokes the German word Gleichschaltung—describing the Nazification process by which Hitler slowly destroyed Germany ’ s liberal democratic organizing principles—to help explain what is happening in several major democracies today , including the United States , India , and Brazil .
“ In all three countries , there is movement toward unifying institutions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as in India , or loyalty to a single leader , as in the United States , where the most powerful political party is increasingly defined by fealty to Donald Trump , ” Stanley writes .
“ This threatens the democratic nature of these institutions as well as their competence to carry out their institutional missions .
Our democratic culture is on life support.
” That may be true , but fascism has a very poor track record as a replacement .
Some historians argue that strongmen of the past who were sometimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ataturk—whose harsh , swift brand of nationalistic transformation inspired Hitler , according to the historian Stefan Ihrig ’ s 2014 book , Ataturk in the Nazi Imagination—succeeded in the end only because they outgrew those tendencies .
Ataturk also pursued long-term plans for national transformation that brought in best practices from Western nations—he hired the famed U.S. educator John Dewey , for example—and even programmed in the return of democracy .
Those leaders , in other words , had larger , detailed programs of the kinds that elude Trump .
His instincts may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little or no greater purpose other than manipulating the truth to his political benefit and rousing his poorly educated white base .
“ His stupid , careless talk is not really fascist but conceivably subfascist , ” said Stanley Payne , a well-known historian of European fascism at the University of Wisconsin-Madison .
“ Both Hitler and Mussolini spoke more toward theoretically coherent goals.
” Even Spain ’ s Franco , the military strongman who toyed with fascism as Hitler and Mussolini rose to dominance in Europe , abandoned it in the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ historians contend .
“ The Franco regime in its full form , from 1945 to 1975 , was not fascist , ” said Payne , a specialist in Spanish fascism .
“ A distinction should be made between the Catholic , corporatist , quasi-monarchist system of ‘ mature Francoism ’ and the semi-fascist phase of 1937-45 .
Francoism lasted so long that it was more than one thing , though the non-fascist form predominated.
” In an interview , Ihrig , a historian at the University of Haifa , said Trump is plainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but he added : “ The United States is not Weimar Germany .
True , we always need to be worried .
He is using the classic methods : destroying checks and balances , influencing the legal system to one side , polarizing society and playing with the notion of truth—making it inoperable .
These things are really worrisome , but rather than being a fascist himself , I think Trump is more like one of these authoritarian kinds of conservative figures , like in late Weimar Germany , who allied with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s true nature or aims , such alliances are necessary for fascists to succeed .
Like Putin , who today is plainly deploying a form of fascism by controlling corporate Russia , Hitler and Mussolini gained power by manipulating conservative and corporate elites who believed , with tragic consequences , that they could control the emerging dictators .
The backing of such elites is crucial for fascists to last more than a few years in power because the “ corporate oligarchy craves a certain kind of stability , ” Stanley said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support of social conservatives who are made to fear nonexistent threats , can and does leave fascism in power in the face of conflicts with reality.
” Such a support base does not exist to nearly the same degree for Trump .
While he has tried hard , especially during the coronavirus pandemic , to enlist and win over corporate America , he has created just as many enemies among the U.S. corporate elite .
And from Wall Street to Silicon Valley , America ’ s business leaders are far more independent than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia .
Beyond that , American democracy is 244 years old and not nearly as vulnerable as the young and fragile democratic systems that existed in Weimar and the Italian republic of the early 20th century .
America ’ s constitutional checks and balances , though seemingly strained to the breaking point—as we saw during Trump ’ s impeachment and acquittal—are far more in evidence than in the case of other fascist takeovers .
Even the majority conservative Supreme Court has curtailed some of Trump ’ s ambitions , ruling most recently that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ requiring him to release his financial records to prosecutors .
And the U.S. military establishment , which in previous fascist history bent much more willingly to the designs of autocrats in power , has made a stand for constitutional restraints as well .
Following the killing of George Floyd in May , Trump ’ s own defense secretary and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman very publicly distanced themselves from him as he sought to enlist them in his campaign for “ law and order ” in the face of civil unrest .
Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though it is nearly two and a half centuries old , American democracy has not yet been fully tested against freshly malign forces like cyberattacks , the historian argues in a forthcoming book .
This is especially true since the end of the Cold War , which he compares with the unstable interwar period of the 20th century that led to fascism .
“ With the end of the Cold War , certain restraints to the left and right of the spectrum as well as a more general consensus on politics and society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you take away times of war ( World War I , World War II , and the Cold War ) as well as those in which major parts of society were excluded or underrepresented ( women , minorities , also workers in some systems , etc . )
, then democracy did not have too much time to play out its battles with heavily opposing forces , to test itself , and to come up with a range of successful strategies of coping with fundamental opposition.
” Payne said fascists can and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t go overboard ; the problem for them is they usually do .
“ Historical fascism worked very well so long as its leaders stayed out of big wars , ” he said .
“ From 1922 to 1940 , Mussolini could hardly be described as other than successful .
From 1933 to 1939 , Hitler had the greatest six years of any leader in German history .
Big wars did them in , as they did to many other leaders.
” Trump has already started a global trade war that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iran and North Korea .
And most scholars would argue that , by its nature , fascism is born of megalomania , which in turn chooses war and ultimately self-destructs .

Joe Biden, who is way ahead in the polls, has called it his “ single greatest concern .” What if Donald Trump refuses to leave office freely if Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, wins the November election? Last weekend, the president openly suggested to Fox News that he might not accept the results, declaring: “I’m not going to just say yes. I’m not going to say no.” Indeed Trump is already working to invalidate the 2020 tally, accusing Democrats of plotting fraud through mail-in voting that might be needed because of the pandemic, and legal challenges by his allies are mounting at an unprecedented rate. Moreover, Trump has spent his entire first term trampling over the institutions of American democracy, obstructing justice and defying Congress and the courts and crying “coup!” every time he’s investigated.
Joe Biden, who is way ahead in the polls, has called it his “single greatest concern.” What if Donald Trump refuses to leave office freely if Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, wins the November election? Last weekend, the president openly suggested to Fox News that he might not accept the results, declaring: “I’m not going to just say yes. I’m not going to say no.” Indeed Trump is already working to invalidate the 2020 tally, accusing Democrats of plotting fraud through mail-in voting that might be needed because of the pandemic, and legal challenges by his allies are mounting at an unprecedented rate. Moreover, Trump has spent his entire first term trampling over the institutions of American democracy, obstructing justice and defying Congress and the courts and crying “coup!” every time he’s investigated.
Alternatively, what if Trump doesn’t seize power illegally but is actually reelected? Surely that would amount to a virtual mandate, in his mind, to ignore the Constitution and the law of the land altogether. Plenty of fascists past and present—from Benito Mussolini to Vladimir Putin—have made mincemeat of vulnerable democratic systems to install themselves as autocrats. For more than four years, legions of Trump critics have accused him of having fascist tendencies, and American democracy now appears badly wounded, if not broken, and vulnerable to further manipulation, especially since Trump has turned the Republican Party into little more than a cheerleader for his personal aggrandizement. Only this week, in a move that echoed past fascist practices, Trump threatened to send in additional federal forces to American cities such as New York and Chicago that he said were run by the “radical left,” even without the cooperation of their elected officials.
Fascism, as the Yale University scholar Jason Stanley has written, “is not a new threat, but rather a permanent temptation.” And Trump’s words and actions indicate that he’s sorely tempted to emulate autocrats he admires around the world. One never knows for sure when Trump is joking—he insists he is whenever he is criticized for saying something especially controversial—but in 2018 Trump spoke glowingly of Xi Jinping’s brutal consolidation of power in China and his title of “president for life.” “I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday,” Trump said.
So let’s suppose the worst: Trump—whom his niece, the author Mary Trump, calls the “world’s most dangerous man”—really does attempt to embrace his inner fascist in the coming months. The good news is that history tells us he will almost certainly fail in the end, especially since Trump possesses nothing like the fearsome competence or detailed programs of fascists past. Fascism in its various forms has no enduring record of success in the long run; based on the evidence, it is almost always doomed to destroy itself in an orgy of ultranationalism and megalomania, as Adolf Hitler and Mussolini did. Other fascists or strongmen who stayed in power longer, like Francisco Franco of Spain and Turkey’s Kemal Ataturk, did so by wisely changing course or because they were misunderstood and weren’t really fascists at all for much of their careers, some scholars say.
By itself, “fascism is difficult to work in practice because it always has grandiose visions inconsistent with reality, upon whose shores it crashes,” Stanley, the author of How Fascism Works, told Foreign Policy. It may be an effective means to gaining power, but fascists typically destroy themselves before long, especially when crises erupt. “We are seeing that with COVID-19 in the United States and Brazil,” Stanley said.
Stanley’s 2018 book is a detailed look at the broad concept of fascism, which he defines as ultranationalism embodied in one leader and movement, and at the kind of politics that fascism typically practices. These strategies are familiar to anyone who has observed Trump’s rise: inventing a mythic past of greatness, promoting anti-intellectualism, playing up national victimhood and the need for law and order, appealing to the heartland, and fomenting division, especially by attacking immigrants and liberal elites. Like Trump, fascists almost always promise to “drain the swamp” by concocting false charges of corruption, as the U.S. president did against Hillary Clinton and is now doing against Biden. Above all, Stanley says, fascist politics is about identifying enemies, appealing to an insecure majority group like America’s white population, and destroying truth and replacing it with power. As Mussolini said in a 1922 speech, to create a fascist national myth “it is not necessary for it to be a reality.”
Such words are like song to Donald Trump.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the crowd during a campaign rally at Freedom Hall in Johnson City, Tennessee, on Oct. 1, 2018.
In his book, Stanley invokes the German word Gleichschaltung—describing the Nazification process by which Hitler slowly destroyed Germany’s liberal democratic organizing principles—to help explain what is happening in several major democracies today, including the United States, India, and Brazil. “In all three countries, there is movement toward unifying institutions around loyalty to an ethnic identity, as in India, or loyalty to a single leader, as in the United States, where the most powerful political party is increasingly defined by fealty to Donald Trump,” Stanley writes. “This threatens the democratic nature of these institutions as well as their competence to carry out their institutional missions. Our democratic culture is on life support.”
That may be true, but fascism has a very poor track record as a replacement. Some historians argue that strongmen of the past who were sometimes identified with fascism, like Franco and Ataturk—whose harsh, swift brand of nationalistic transformation inspired Hitler, according to the historian Stefan Ihrig’s 2014 book, Ataturk in the Nazi Imagination—succeeded in the end only because they outgrew those tendencies.
Ataturk also pursued long-term plans for national transformation that brought in best practices from Western nations—he hired the famed U.S. educator John Dewey, for example—and even programmed in the return of democracy. Those leaders, in other words, had larger, detailed programs of the kinds that elude Trump. His instincts may be fascist, but he has shown little or no greater purpose other than manipulating the truth to his political benefit and rousing his poorly educated white base.
“His stupid, careless talk is not really fascist but conceivably subfascist,” said Stanley Payne, a well-known historian of European fascism at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Both Hitler and Mussolini spoke more toward theoretically coherent goals.”
Even Spain’s Franco, the military strongman who toyed with fascism as Hitler and Mussolini rose to dominance in Europe, abandoned it in the end for a more pluralistic system, some historians contend. “The Franco regime in its full form, from 1945 to 1975, was not fascist,” said Payne, a specialist in Spanish fascism. “A distinction should be made between the Catholic, corporatist, quasi-monarchist system of ‘mature Francoism’ and the semi-fascist phase of 1937-45. Francoism lasted so long that it was more than one thing, though the non-fascist form predominated.”
In an interview, Ihrig, a historian at the University of Haifa, said Trump is plainly deploying fascist tactics of the past, but he added: “The United States is not Weimar Germany. True, we always need to be worried. He is using the classic methods: destroying checks and balances, influencing the legal system to one side, polarizing society and playing with the notion of truth—making it inoperable. These things are really worrisome, but rather than being a fascist himself, I think Trump is more like one of these authoritarian kinds of conservative figures, like in late Weimar Germany, who allied with the Nazis to change the system.”
Whatever Trump’s true nature or aims, such alliances are necessary for fascists to succeed. Like Putin, who today is deploying a form of fascism by controlling corporate Russia, Hitler and Mussolini gained power by manipulating conservative and corporate elites who believed, with tragic consequences, that they could control the emerging dictators. The backing of such elites is crucial for fascists to last more than a few years in power because the “corporate oligarchy craves a certain kind of stability,” Stanley said. “This, together with the support of social conservatives who are made to fear nonexistent threats, can and does leave fascism in power in the face of conflicts with reality.”
Marchers hold placards with satirical portraits of Mussolini and Adolf Hitler during a May Day parade near Union Square in New York in the early 1930s.
Such a support base does not exist to nearly the same degree for Trump. While he has tried hard, especially during the coronavirus pandemic, to enlist and win over corporate America, he has created just as many enemies among the U.S. corporate elite. And from Wall Street to Silicon Valley, America’s business leaders are far more independent than in, say, a country like Russia.
Beyond that, American democracy is 244 years old and not nearly as vulnerable as the young and fragile democratic systems that existed in Weimar and the Italian republic of the early 20th century. America’s constitutional checks and balances, though seemingly strained to the breaking point—as we saw during Trump’s impeachment and acquittal—are far more in evidence than in the case of other fascist takeovers. Even the majority conservative Supreme Court has curtailed some of Trump’s ambitions, ruling most recently that he is not above the law in requiring him to release his financial records to prosecutors. And the military establishment, which in previous fascist history bent much more willingly to the designs of autocrats in power, has made a stand for constitutional restraints as well. Following the killing of George Floyd in May, Trump’s own defense secretary and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman very publicly distanced themselves from him as he sought to enlist them in his campaign for “law and order” in the face of civil unrest.
Still, Ihrig cautions against complacency. Even though it is nearly two and a half centuries old, American democracy has not yet been fully tested against freshly malign forces like cyberattacks, the historian argues in a forthcoming book. This is especially true since the end of the Cold War, which he compares with the unstable interwar period of the 20th century that led to fascism. “With the end of the Cold War, certain restraints to the left and right of the spectrum as well as a more general consensus on politics and society disappeared,” Ihrig said. “If you take away times of war (World War I, World War II, and the Cold War) as well as those in which major parts of society were excluded or underrepresented (women, minorities, also workers in some systems, etc.), then democracy did not have too much time to play out its battles with heavily opposing forces, to test itself, and to come up with a range of successful strategies of coping with fundamental opposition.”
Payne said fascists can and do last in power if they don’t go overboard; the problem for them is they usually do. “Historical fascism worked very well so long as its leaders stayed out of big wars,” he said. “From 1922 to 1940, Mussolini could hardly be described as other than successful. From 1933 to 1939, Hitler had the greatest six years of any leader in German history. Big wars did them in, as they did to many other leaders.” Trump has already started a global trade war that is going nowhere and threatened real war against Iran and North Korea. And most scholars would argue that, by its nature, fascism is born of megalomania, which in turn chooses war and ultimately self-destructs.
July 22: This story was updated to include Trump’s threat to send in federal forces.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-21--Uruguay Emerges as a Rare Pandemic Winner in Latin America

Uruguay doesn ’ t often find itself on the international stage , save for wine and soccer .
Yet despite sharing a border with Brazil , the country second-worst-hit by COVID-19 , this small nation is managing to successfully combat a virus that has brought global giants to their knees .
Latin America is currently one of the regions most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic .
Argentina and Brazil , the countries bordering Uruguay , are seeing increases in cases daily .
In Argentina , despite strict measures taken by the government , COVID-19 has claimed more than 2,200 lives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country is over 100,000 .
In Brazil , the situation is so drastic that the Latin American country is considered the second-most-affected in the world after the United States , with more than 140,000 deaths and almost 2.2 million confirmed cases .
The situation in Uruguay , however , could not be more different .
As of July 20 , Uruguay has only 1,054 total confirmed cases , 33 deaths , and more than 920 patients recovered—with only 99 active cases .
Although the government ’ s approach has not been without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ door the relative success is a credit to the public and the administration .
With close ties through border cities such as Rivera , where you can cross the street and suddenly be in Brazil , the Uruguayan government has had to shoulder not only its own situation but also that of a country whose response to the pandemic has been disastrous .
That success has paid off with the public .
In a survey carried out by Ipsos , the Uruguayan management of the pandemic had the highest rate of public approval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I feel very cared for , ” said Carlos Leguísamo , a former director of the Uruguayan station Radio Colonia .
“ Science was respected , and so were individual freedoms .
Instead of totally isolating the virus , Uruguay made every effort to find the first case of each contagion and then isolate the entire chain of contacts .
And that was the main difference we had with the rest of the world.
” Uruguay ’ s success in coping with COVID-19 is not only a result of immediate actions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation has been growing for years .
In addition to being among the countries with the least poverty in Latin America , Uruguay is one of the few countries in the region where the population has full access to basic services , such as running water and electricity , as well as high rates of internet connection .
With more than 88,000 coronavirus tests conducted since March 13 , when the first cases were detected in Uruguay , the country is among the top performers in the world in terms of testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to people without symptoms .
The smallness of the country , which has a population of 3.5 million to Brazil ’ s over 200 million , enables rapid and effective contact-tracing , which has also meant targeted , random testing .
That has allowed the targeting of specific groups who play a key role in supply chains and can be inadvertent superspreaders , such as construction workers or distributors and transporters .
“ I think that without a doubt scale is something that plays in our favor , ” said Diego Irazábal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health authorities can have a more direct control of the situation , and it can control the people infected and their contacts at a much more personal level.
” The exhaustive control of cases is complemented by one of the largest scientific deployments ever inside the country , augmented by existing investments in education .
“ In the years [ when the opposition was in government ] there was a transfer of resources and the University of the Republic , Uruguay ’ s top university , has seen its budget increase enormously , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister of tourism and senator from the Broad Front , the main opposition party .
“ This has been really useful , because today it allows us to have the test kits without depending on anyone , which was a problem at the beginning of the pandemic , ” she added .
Even before COVID-19 was not yet a clear threat on the continent , scientists from the Pasteur Institute in Montevideo , alongside researchers from the University of the Republic , began to manufacture kits to detect the coronavirus using molecular technology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of testing but also established the country as a leader in the region , enabling it to sell kits to Argentina , Chile , and Paraguay , and helping to test the population in the cities bordering Brazil .
“ Uruguay has developed a national integrated health system that not all countries have , and that bets a lot on primary care , ” said Jorge Mota , a former director of departmental health for the department of Colonia , which borders Argentina .
“ Preventive interventions are carried out on the entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and this means that people will be monitored even if they are healthy , ” he said .
The doctor added that in emergency situations , such as the current pandemic , the entire management of the system falls to the state , allowing greater coordination and control .
By the end of February , the health system was already preparing to deal with the situation .
Not only was a plan created to strengthen both public and private health centers , but the government also sought to increase and coordinate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ various institutions .
At the beginning of March , when the pandemic still seemed somewhat distant and the first cases were confirmed , the decision was taken to expand the number of beds in the intensive care units and increase the amount of specialized equipment and respirators in its facilities , something that allowed the system to be prepared in case the situation got out of control .
As the world has rapidly learned , solutions for COVID-19 aren ’ t just about lab work , but also social psychology .
The health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the same social distancing measures that have proved to be effective in other countries , but—unlike in many other nations—in Uruguay compulsory quarantine was never decreed .
Nor were sanctions applied to those who did not comply with the guidelines suggested by the government .
“ All the measures were taken on time , the necessary measures expressed in the first sanitary emergency decree , but always emphasizing the responsible freedom of the people , ” Irazábal said , adding that in Uruguay , unlike elsewhere , these measures have been obeyed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s high rates of connectivity and lack of extreme poverty meant that people were more confident that social distancing wouldn ’ t prove an economic disaster for them or an educational disaster for their children .
The government has used individual freedom and civic rights as one of the main points of its strategy—and this has been generally accepted by citizens who , faced with the option to choose , chose to preserve the safety and health of their fellow citizens .
Other earlier steps ended up helping prepare the country for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ established in Uruguay over a decade ago , delivers tablets and computers to children .
Another government scheme , the Ibirapitá Plan , delivers tablets to the elderly , an important measure in a period when keeping people physically separate but informed and in touch with others—especially among at-risk populations—can be the difference between life and death .
The government has also taken steps such as designating a special COVID-19 fund , providing social baskets , and increasing one-time social assistance cards for the most vulnerable .
Some have called for stronger action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here , ” said Juan Raúl Ferreira , a senator from the Broad Front .
“ Except for the interruption of classes , and now the use of face masks on public transport , all the other measures that have been taken have had no coercive value .
They are suggestions , recommendations , appealing to the responsibility of the population , ” he said .
Ferreira argued that , given the proximity of Brazil , stronger measures were needed and that the lack of border closures early on had been a failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lack of enforcement , social distancing has been common .
“ We took rapid social isolation measures and closed universities , high schools , and shopping malls , ” Kechichián said .
“ There were decrees from the executive branch that suspended all kinds of activities , ” Irazábal added .
“ A lot of public activity was completely frozen , without the need for mandatory quarantine ” Despite the country ’ s successes , it has not emerged unscathed .
Although Uruguay ’ s economy was able to stay on course in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow due to the total paralysis of tourism , one of its most vital economic activities .
Tourism , which represents 9 percent of the country ’ s GDP and is directly linked to 100,000 jobs in different areas , is , according to Kechichián , in a “ dramatic situation , ” indicating that the government has done little to minimize the impact of the pandemic on the sector .
“ I believe that the measures taken by the executive branch in relation to tourism activities have been practically nil , beyond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public entities , ” the opposition legislator said , adding : “ There is a special unemployment insurance , which can be evaluated as positive , but we have not seen concrete support for small business.
” The impact on the economy also has a direct effect on the most vulnerable sectors of the population , and the opposition says that more could be done to alleviate the situation .
“ At a time when Argentina was saying that they don ’ t pay for electricity , water , or gas , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ferreira said , referring to the rate increase carried out by the government after taking office earlier this year .
“ The country had credits set up for contingencies of this kind , which from our point of view should have been used more massively to assist the unemployed , small and medium business , ” Kechichián said .
But successful control has allowed for other parts of the economy to continue strongly .
“ Agriculture continued to go on , which is the basis of our exports , ” said Irazábal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where the main income base is in the agricultural and livestock industry , “ this has allowed us to cushion the social costs.
” He also mentioned the large number of public posts and the maintenance of contracts as important factors in the country ’ s economic sustainability .
The border with Brazil remains a huge concern .
“ Uruguay knows that it has a very complex land border with Brazil , so nothing has been won yet , ” said Ricardo Planchón , a deputy of the ruling National Party from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the country , with the exception of the first outbreak , have been concentrated in four of the five border departments , Uruguay ’ s regional units .
In addition to closing borders , restricting movement , and setting up checkpoints , Uruguay has also collaborated in testing the inhabitants of the border cities on the Brazilian side .
In a country like Brazil where testing is scarce and the health system is overwhelmed , this collaboration is important not only to avoid contagion on the Uruguayan side , but also to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already out of control .
Like other successful small countries from Taiwan to Georgia , Uruguay has implemented pandemic control and landed in a surprisingly strong position despite economic pain .
As Latin America picks up the pieces of a devastating epidemic , Montevideo may emerge as an unlikely diplomatic leader .

Uruguay doesn’t often find itself on the international stage, save for wine and soccer. Yet despite sharing a border with Brazil, the country second-worst-hit by COVID-19, this small nation is managing to successfully combat a virus that has brought global giants to their knees.
Uruguay doesn’t often find itself on the international stage, save for wine and soccer. Yet despite sharing a border with Brazil, the country second-worst-hit by COVID-19, this small nation is managing to successfully combat a virus that has brought global giants to their knees.
Latin America is currently one of the regions most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Argentina and Brazil, the countries bordering Uruguay, are seeing increases in cases daily. In Argentina, despite strict measures taken by the government, COVID-19 has claimed more than 2,200 lives, and the number of cases in the country is over 100,000. In Brazil, the situation is so drastic that the Latin American country is considered the second-most-affected in the world after the United States, with more than 140,000 deaths and almost 2.2 million confirmed cases.
The situation in Uruguay, however, could not be more different. As of July 20, Uruguay has only 1,054 total confirmed cases, 33 deaths, and more than 920 patients recovered—with only 99 active cases.
Although the government’s approach has not been without missteps, given the crisis-ridden nations next door the relative success is a credit to the public and the administration. With close ties through border cities such as Rivera, where you can cross the street and suddenly be in Brazil, the Uruguayan government has had to shoulder not only its own situation but also that of a country whose response to the pandemic has been disastrous.
That success has paid off with the public. In a survey carried out by Ipsos, the Uruguayan management of the pandemic had the highest rate of public approval out of any Latin American country. “I feel very cared for,” said Carlos Leguísamo, a former director of the Uruguayan station Radio Colonia. “Science was respected, and so were individual freedoms. Instead of totally isolating the virus, Uruguay made every effort to find the first case of each contagion and then isolate the entire chain of contacts. And that was the main difference we had with the rest of the world.”
Uruguay’s success in coping with COVID-19 is not only a result of immediate actions, but also rooted in institutional strengths that the nation has been growing for years. In addition to being among the countries with the least poverty in Latin America, Uruguay is one of the few countries in the region where the population has full access to basic services, such as running water and electricity, as well as high rates of internet connection.
With more than 88,000 coronavirus tests conducted since March 13, when the first cases were detected in Uruguay, the country is among the top performers in the world in terms of testing by population—which has been widely available even to people without symptoms.
The smallness of the country, which has a population of 3.5 million to Brazil’s over 200 million, enables rapid and effective contact-tracing, which has also meant targeted, random testing. That has allowed the targeting of specific groups who play a key role in supply chains and can be inadvertent superspreaders, such as construction workers or distributors and transporters.
“I think that without a doubt scale is something that plays in our favor,” said Diego Irazábal, the governor of Flores. “The health authorities can have a more direct control of the situation, and it can control the people infected and their contacts at a much more personal level.”
The exhaustive control of cases is complemented by one of the largest scientific deployments ever inside the country, augmented by existing investments in education.
“In the years [when the opposition was in government] there was a transfer of resources and the University of the Republic, Uruguay’s top university, has seen its budget increase enormously,” said Liliam Kechichián, a former minister of tourism and senator from the Broad Front, the main opposition party.
“This has been really useful, because today it allows us to have the test kits without depending on anyone, which was a problem at the beginning of the pandemic,” she added.
Even before COVID-19 was not yet a clear threat on the continent, scientists from the Pasteur Institute in Montevideo, alongside researchers from the University of the Republic, began to manufacture kits to detect the coronavirus using molecular technology. This not only reduced the cost of testing but also established the country as a leader in the region, enabling it to sell kits to Argentina, Chile, and Paraguay, and helping to test the population in the cities bordering Brazil.
“Uruguay has developed a national integrated health system that not all countries have, and that bets a lot on primary care,” said Jorge Mota, a former director of departmental health for the department of Colonia, which borders Argentina.
“Preventive interventions are carried out on the entire population, from babies to the elderly, and this means that people will be monitored even if they are healthy,” he said. The doctor added that in emergency situations, such as the current pandemic, the entire management of the system falls to the state, allowing greater coordination and control.
By the end of February, the health system was already preparing to deal with the situation. Not only was a plan created to strengthen both public and private health centers, but the government also sought to increase and coordinate the joint work of the country’s various institutions. At the beginning of March, when the pandemic still seemed somewhat distant and the first cases were confirmed, the decision was taken to expand the number of beds in the intensive care units and increase the amount of specialized equipment and respirators in its facilities, something that allowed the system to be prepared in case the situation got out of control.
As the world has rapidly learned, solutions for COVID-19 aren’t just about lab work, but also social psychology.
The health control exercised by the state was accompanied by the same social distancing measures that have proved to be effective in other countries, but—unlike in many other nations—in Uruguay compulsory quarantine was never decreed. Nor were sanctions applied to those who did not comply with the guidelines suggested by the government.
“All the measures were taken on time, the necessary measures expressed in the first sanitary emergency decree, but always emphasizing the responsible freedom of the people,” Irazábal said, adding that in Uruguay, unlike elsewhere, these measures have been obeyed practically to the letter. The country’s high rates of connectivity and lack of extreme poverty meant that people were more confident that social distancing wouldn’t prove an economic disaster for them or an educational disaster for their children. The government has used individual freedom and civic rights as one of the main points of its strategy—and this has been generally accepted by citizens who, faced with the option to choose, chose to preserve the safety and health of their fellow citizens.
Other earlier steps ended up helping prepare the country for the pandemic. The Ceibal Plan, established in Uruguay over a decade ago, delivers tablets and computers to children. Another government scheme, the Ibirapitá Plan, delivers tablets to the elderly, an important measure in a period when keeping people physically separate but informed and in touch with others—especially among at-risk populations—can be the difference between life and death. The government has also taken steps such as designating a special COVID-19 fund, providing social baskets, and increasing one-time social assistance cards for the most vulnerable.
Some have called for stronger action. “No measures were actually applied here,” said Juan Raúl Ferreira, a senator from the Broad Front.
“Except for the interruption of classes, and now the use of face masks on public transport, all the other measures that have been taken have had no coercive value. They are suggestions, recommendations, appealing to the responsibility of the population,” he said. Ferreira argued that, given the proximity of Brazil, stronger measures were needed and that the lack of border closures early on had been a failure by the government.
But despite the lack of enforcement, social distancing has been common. “We took rapid social isolation measures and closed universities, high schools, and shopping malls,” Kechichián said.
“There were decrees from the executive branch that suspended all kinds of activities,” Irazábal added. “A lot of public activity was completely frozen, without the need for mandatory quarantine”
Despite the country’s successes, it has not emerged unscathed.
Although Uruguay’s economy was able to stay on course in several areas, it suffered a major blow due to the total paralysis of tourism, one of its most vital economic activities.
Tourism, which represents 9 percent of the country’s GDP and is directly linked to 100,000 jobs in different areas, is, according to Kechichián, in a “dramatic situation,” indicating that the government has done little to minimize the impact of the pandemic on the sector. “I believe that the measures taken by the executive branch in relation to tourism activities have been practically nil, beyond postponing the payment of some taxes by public entities,” the opposition legislator said, adding: “There is a special unemployment insurance, which can be evaluated as positive, but we have not seen concrete support for small business.”
The impact on the economy also has a direct effect on the most vulnerable sectors of the population, and the opposition says that more could be done to alleviate the situation. “At a time when Argentina was saying that they don’t pay for electricity, water, or gas, in Uruguay they increased the rates,” Ferreira said, referring to the rate increase carried out by the government after taking office earlier this year.
“The country had credits set up for contingencies of this kind, which from our point of view should have been used more massively to assist the unemployed, small and medium business,” Kechichián said.
But successful control has allowed for other parts of the economy to continue strongly. “Agriculture continued to go on, which is the basis of our exports,” said Irazábal, explaining that in an area like Flores, where the main income base is in the agricultural and livestock industry, “this has allowed us to cushion the social costs.” He also mentioned the large number of public posts and the maintenance of contracts as important factors in the country’s economic sustainability.
The border with Brazil remains a huge concern. “Uruguay knows that it has a very complex land border with Brazil, so nothing has been won yet,” said Ricardo Planchón, a deputy of the ruling National Party from the department of Colonia. Sporadic outbreaks in the country, with the exception of the first outbreak, have been concentrated in four of the five border departments, Uruguay’s regional units.
In addition to closing borders, restricting movement, and setting up checkpoints, Uruguay has also collaborated in testing the inhabitants of the border cities on the Brazilian side. In a country like Brazil where testing is scarce and the health system is overwhelmed, this collaboration is important not only to avoid contagion on the Uruguayan side, but also to assist a country where the situation is already out of control. Like other successful small countries from Taiwan to Georgia, Uruguay has implemented pandemic control and landed in a surprisingly strong position despite economic pain. As Latin America picks up the pieces of a devastating epidemic, Montevideo may emerge as an unlikely diplomatic leader.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-21--Electromagnetic Pulses Are the Last Thing You Need to Worry About in a Nuclear Explosion

Electromagnetic Pulses Are the Last Thing You Need to Worry About in a Nuclear Explosion It is hard to pinpoint what , specifically , the electromagnetic pulse did to the electronic infrastructure of Hiroshima , Japan , on Aug. 6 , 1945 .
In the days and months after the blast , the first use of a nuclear weapon in war , electrical power remained out in the city .
If no specific attention was paid to the particular way that part of a nuclear blast interacts with the electrical grid , it is because the effect of the weapon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rubble , the radiation , the fire and ruin and mass death , fried electronics were barely noticed .
The electromagnetic pulse that comes from the sundering of an atom , potentially destroying electronics within the blast radius with some impact miles away from ground zero , is just one of many effects of every nuclear blast .
What is peculiar about these pulses , often referred to as EMPs , is the way the side effect of a nuclear blast is treated as a in its own right by bodies such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Security , which , despite the official-sounding name , is a privately funded group .
These groups continue a decadelong tradition of obsession over EMPs , one President Donald Trump and others have picked up on .
These EMP-specific fears are wholly divorced from the normal risk calculations of a war between nuclear-armed states and the threat of nuclear oblivion .
Doing so obscures the history—and misunderstands the dangers .
EMPs were anticipated before they existed .
Enrico Fermi of the Manhattan Project hardened sensors at the Trinity test site so that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuclear tests would look at the way this pulse risked disabling other warheads in flight , and what would happen if a warhead was detonated so high above Earth that the pulse was its primary effect .
For the early planners of the apocalypse , the greatest risk posed by an EMP was to nuclear warheads themselves .
Strategic planning called for multiple warheads to obliterate a city , and the engineers were worried about what might happen if the first nuke to explode disabled the electronics inside the other warheads , causing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was called “ warhead fratricide , ” and researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ran Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the odds .
Once understood , the problem of nuclear weapons disabling other nuclear weapons was solved , primarily , by engineering around the known parameters of EMPs .
Hardening electronics , with special shielding that directs current around sensitive parts of machines , has been a staple of nuclear weapon design for decades .
It is a known , solvable problem .
The U.S. Department of Defense absolutely requires hardening for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control , while standards exist to harden other electronics , as well as civilian infrastructure that the military depends on for non-nuclear threats .
That hasn ’ t stopped it becoming a perpetual bugbear of strategists .
Then-Rep. Trent Franks argued before Congress in 2012 that terrorists might acquire and then use a nuclear weapon to create an EMP .
The logic goes like this : A nonstate actor simultaneously in possession of a nuclear weapon , a missile , and a freighter brings all three close to a port in the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uses the missile to loft a nuke into space above the United States , detonating it , causing an electromagnetic pulse that wipes out electronics across the country .
This Rube Goldberg-style fear is dependent not only on a catastrophic failure of intelligence , but also on the group in possession of the nuke exercising a strange logic themselves .
Why , after obtaining a nuclear weapon , would they not simply use the blast to kill hundreds of thousands of people directly ?
Franks argued that the American dependence on modern technology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , unlike the common vulnerability every human being has to their flesh being disintegrated by fire and heat .
High-altitude nuclear EMPs were discovered as part of the atmospheric Operation Fishbowl testing series in 1962 .
The most famous of these , Starfish Prime , was detonated at nearly 250 miles above the planet ’ s surface .
The electromagnetic pulse was far-reaching , shutting down some streetlights in Oahu almost 900 miles away from the detonation .
The partial test ban treaty of 1963 meant that the Fishbowl series were the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States , but the potential of using a nuclear weapon blown up high in the sky to disable electronics became a dedicated part of nuclear war planning for ever afterward .
By the 1970s , EMP effects were fully incorporated in the U.S. planning about nuclear war .
Following the broadcast of the TV special The Day After in 1983 , New York Times columnist John Corry launched EMP concerns into the public eye by specifically worrying that an EMP could wipe out U.S. second-strike capabilities .
In response , Richard Garwin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first theoretical papers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory on the origin of EMPs from nuclear explosions , sought to dispel the unique fear of EMPs in a letter to the editor published by the Times .
“ Since 1962 , the delicacy of some electronics has increased because of the use of transistors and integrated circuits , but our understanding of electromagnetic pulse has matured so that specific equipment and systems can be tested and guaranteed against disruption by EMP , ” Garwin wrote .
This hardening included the communication links for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hardening of the silos and aircraft themselves against the dangerous effects from the pulse .
That some electronics would fail in the event of a high-altitude EMP attack on the United States did not mean that the whole of the nuclear enterprise would be rendered inert , no matter how many hyperbolic pronouncements claimed it would be a Pearl Harbor-style event “ Furthermore , ” Garwin continued , “ it is inconceivable that the Soviet Union would use nuclear weapons only to produce electromagnetic pulse ; many nuclear warheads would attack bomber bases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be the least of our problems at the outbreak of nuclear war.
” Garwin ’ s letter came at a time when the primary concern of the U.S. nuclear enterprise was preparing for , and deterring , a war with the Soviet Union .
That arsenal , now Russian , remains the primary concern of nuclear forces .
Russia , like the United States , maintains a standing arsenal of over 1,500 deployed nuclear weapons .
That ’ s the scale where , should either country decide to launch a nuclear attack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spared to create a high-altitude EMP effect against another country without significantly reducing the total harm caused by the more familiar blasts and pressure waves of nuclear detonation .
The destruction to electronics , as in Hiroshima , would be a very low-level concern compared to the charred bodies of children and cities on fire .
For the rest of the nuclear-armed world , with total arsenals estimated at between 35 to 320 warheads , using one of them for an EMP effect makes even less strategic sense .
What is known about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to people , to cities , and to physical objects from physical force .
These are the effects that haunt our understanding of Hiroshima and Nagasaki .
A nuclear blast is an unsubtle form of harm .
Focusing on EMPs outside the context of a broader nuclear war assumes a wholly unique strategic calculus , one that sits outside any understanding of war or even terrorism .
It ascribes nearly supernatural powers to electronics and the threatened loss thereof .
And it assumes that detonating a nuclear weapon in orbit over a country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediate and hostile reaction as detonating a nuclear weapon in a city .
To fear the EMP is to look at the vast military strength of the United States , and see , as Franks did , that strength as a surrogate for a unique vulnerability .
It is to imagine that the United States has built itself an Achilles ’ heel , one that when pricked will lead to the collapse of all of Western civilization .
“ Such EMP weaponry could also be deployed with only slightly more advanced means from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electronic infrastructure of the American homeland , ” testified the physicist Lowell Wood , then at Lawrence Livermore National Labs , before Congress in 1999 .
“ Thus , the de facto national policy of nakedness to all of our potentially EMP-armed enemies takes on ever more of the character of national-scale masochism .
It is perverse and irrational , and it is assuredly not necessary or foreordained.
” That is a lot to unpack , but it is emblematic of the public fight over EMPs .
There is nothing uniquely American about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inferno .
But there was , at least for a time , an idea that alone among nations , the United States would be unable to function without telephone lines or a functioning power grid .
If Congress could be convinced that this was true , it could justify almost any action as a preemption against the threat , from benignly hardening the grid to dangerously launching new wars against states with nuclear weapons programs .
Nuclear war is a serious threat .
It has been for decades , however much we might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea of a nuclear weapon creating an EMP without immediately sparking a nuclear war is entirely laughable .

It is hard to pinpoint what, specifically, the electromagnetic pulse did to the electronic infrastructure of Hiroshima, Japan, on Aug. 6, 1945. In the days and months after the blast, the first use of a nuclear weapon in war, electrical power remained out in the city. If no specific attention was paid to the particular way that part of a nuclear blast interacts with the electrical grid, it is because the effect of the weapon was total and horrific. Amid the rubble, the radiation, the fire and ruin and mass death, fried electronics were barely noticed.
It is hard to pinpoint what, specifically, the electromagnetic pulse did to the electronic infrastructure of Hiroshima, Japan, on Aug. 6, 1945. In the days and months after the blast, the first use of a nuclear weapon in war, electrical power remained out in the city. If no specific attention was paid to the particular way that part of a nuclear blast interacts with the electrical grid, it is because the effect of the weapon was total and horrific. Amid the rubble, the radiation, the fire and ruin and mass death, fried electronics were barely noticed.
The electromagnetic pulse that comes from the sundering of an atom, potentially destroying electronics within the blast radius with some impact miles away from ground zero, is just one of many effects of every nuclear blast. What is peculiar about these pulses, often referred to as EMPs, is the way the side effect of a nuclear blast is treated as a special threat in its own right by bodies such as the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, which, despite the official-sounding name, is a privately funded group. These groups continue a decadelong tradition of obsession over EMPs, one President Donald Trump and others have picked up on. These EMP-specific fears are wholly divorced from the normal risk calculations of a war between nuclear-armed states and the threat of nuclear oblivion. Doing so obscures the history—and misunderstands the dangers.
EMPs were anticipated before they existed. Enrico Fermi of the Manhattan Project hardened sensors at the Trinity test site so that the detonation would remain useful science. Later nuclear tests would look at the way this pulse risked disabling other warheads in flight, and what would happen if a warhead was detonated so high above Earth that the pulse was its primary effect.
For the early planners of the apocalypse, the greatest risk posed by an EMP was to nuclear warheads themselves. Strategic planning called for multiple warheads to obliterate a city, and the engineers were worried about what might happen if the first nuke to explode disabled the electronics inside the other warheads, causing them to land inert instead. This was called “warhead fratricide,” and researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ran Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the odds.
Once understood, the problem of nuclear weapons disabling other nuclear weapons was solved, primarily, by engineering around the known parameters of EMPs. Hardening electronics, with special shielding that directs current around sensitive parts of machines, has been a staple of nuclear weapon design for decades. It is a known, solvable problem. The U.S. Department of Defense absolutely requires hardening for military electronics critical to nuclear command and control, while standards exist to harden other electronics, as well as civilian infrastructure that the military depends on for non-nuclear threats.
That hasn’t stopped it becoming a perpetual bugbear of strategists. Then-Rep. Trent Franks argued before Congress in 2012 that terrorists might acquire and then use a nuclear weapon to create an EMP. The logic goes like this: A nonstate actor simultaneously in possession of a nuclear weapon, a missile, and a freighter brings all three close to a port in the United States. Then, that terrorist group uses the missile to loft a nuke into space above the United States, detonating it, causing an electromagnetic pulse that wipes out electronics across the country.
This Rube Goldberg-style fear is dependent not only on a catastrophic failure of intelligence, but also on the group in possession of the nuke exercising a strange logic themselves. Why, after obtaining a nuclear weapon, would they not simply use the blast to kill hundreds of thousands of people directly? Franks argued that the American dependence on modern technology poses a unique vulnerability enemies might exploit, unlike the common vulnerability every human being has to their flesh being disintegrated by fire and heat.
High-altitude nuclear EMPs were discovered as part of the atmospheric Operation Fishbowl testing series in 1962. The most famous of these, Starfish Prime, was detonated at nearly 250 miles above the planet’s surface. The electromagnetic pulse was far-reaching, shutting down some streetlights in Oahu almost 900 miles away from the detonation. The partial test ban treaty of 1963 meant that the Fishbowl series were the last live explosion high-altitude tests by the United States, but the potential of using a nuclear weapon blown up high in the sky to disable electronics became a dedicated part of nuclear war planning for ever afterward.
By the 1970s, EMP effects were fully incorporated in the U.S. planning about nuclear war. Following the broadcast of the TV special The Day After in 1983, New York Times columnist John Corry launched EMP concerns into the public eye by specifically worrying that an EMP could wipe out U.S. second-strike capabilities. In response, Richard Garwin, who in 1954 wrote one of the first theoretical papers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory on the origin of EMPs from nuclear explosions, sought to dispel the unique fear of EMPs in a letter to the editor published by the Times.
“Since 1962, the delicacy of some electronics has increased because of the use of transistors and integrated circuits, but our understanding of electromagnetic pulse has matured so that specific equipment and systems can be tested and guaranteed against disruption by EMP,” Garwin wrote.
This hardening included the communication links for the nuclear chain of command and the hardening of the silos and aircraft themselves against the dangerous effects from the pulse. That some electronics would fail in the event of a high-altitude EMP attack on the United States did not mean that the whole of the nuclear enterprise would be rendered inert, no matter how many hyperbolic pronouncements claimed it would be a Pearl Harbor-style event
“Furthermore,” Garwin continued, “it is inconceivable that the Soviet Union would use nuclear weapons only to produce electromagnetic pulse; many nuclear warheads would attack bomber bases and other vulnerable military targets; EMP would be the least of our problems at the outbreak of nuclear war.”
Garwin’s letter came at a time when the primary concern of the U.S. nuclear enterprise was preparing for, and deterring, a war with the Soviet Union. That arsenal, now Russian, remains the primary concern of nuclear forces. Russia, like the United States, maintains a standing arsenal of over 1,500 deployed nuclear weapons. That’s the scale where, should either country decide to launch a nuclear attack, a warhead or three could be spared to create a high-altitude EMP effect against another country without significantly reducing the total harm caused by the more familiar blasts and pressure waves of nuclear detonation. The destruction to electronics, as in Hiroshima, would be a very low-level concern compared to the charred bodies of children and cities on fire.
For the rest of the nuclear-armed world, with total arsenals estimated at between 35 to 320 warheads, using one of them for an EMP effect makes even less strategic sense.
What is known about nuclear weapons is the damage they cause to people, to cities, and to physical objects from physical force. These are the effects that haunt our understanding of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A nuclear blast is an unsubtle form of harm. Focusing on EMPs outside the context of a broader nuclear war assumes a wholly unique strategic calculus, one that sits outside any understanding of war or even terrorism. It ascribes nearly supernatural powers to electronics and the threatened loss thereof. And it assumes that detonating a nuclear weapon in orbit over a country would not be met with the same immediate and hostile reaction as detonating a nuclear weapon in a city.
To fear the EMP is to look at the vast military strength of the United States, and see, as Franks did, that strength as a surrogate for a unique vulnerability. It is to imagine that the United States has built itself an Achilles’ heel, one that when pricked will lead to the collapse of all of Western civilization.
“Such EMP weaponry could also be deployed with only slightly more advanced means from space to rip up the electrical and electronic infrastructure of the American homeland,” testified the physicist Lowell Wood, then at Lawrence Livermore National Labs, before Congress in 1999. “Thus, the de facto national policy of nakedness to all of our potentially EMP-armed enemies takes on ever more of the character of national-scale masochism. It is perverse and irrational, and it is assuredly not necessary or foreordained.”
That is a lot to unpack, but it is emblematic of the public fight over EMPs. There is nothing uniquely American about not wanting to die in a fiery inferno. But there was, at least for a time, an idea that alone among nations, the United States would be unable to function without telephone lines or a functioning power grid. If Congress could be convinced that this was true, it could justify almost any action as a preemption against the threat, from benignly hardening the grid to dangerously launching new wars against states with nuclear weapons programs.
Nuclear war is a serious threat. It has been for decades, however much we might want to forget about it. But the idea of a nuclear weapon creating an EMP without immediately sparking a nuclear war is entirely laughable.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-22--U.S. Death Toll Breaks 1,000 Again as Deaths Rise in Americas

U.S. Death Toll Breaks 1,000 Again as Deaths Rise in Americas Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : U.S. one-day coronavirus deaths break 1,000 for first time since May , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Denmark , and Pakistan targets TikTok over “ obscenity , vulgarity and immorality.
” We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
On Tuesday , the daily coronavirus death toll in the United States exceeded 1,000 for the first time since May , as the effects of a recent explosion in the number of cases is becoming clear .
Deaths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas , and California , the four states who have recorded the majority of new cases .
Even as the U.S. death toll increases , it still did not record the most deaths worldwide on Tuesday .
That infamy lies with Brazil , where 1,346 deaths were reported .
Of the ten countries with the highest one-day death toll on Tuesday , six were in the Western Hemisphere ( Mexico , Peru , Argentina , and Colombia join Brazil and the United States on the list ) .
What the White House is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not going away , despite his predictions , U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to acknowledge the dire situation the country is now in .
“ It will probably , unfortunately , get worse before it gets better—something I don ’ t like saying about things but that ’ s the way it is , ” Trump said during a White House press briefing .
He also urged Americans to wear masks , echoing a tweet sent from his Twitter account on Monday .
How Uruguay dodged the worst .
While other countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found a way to keep its epidemic in check , recording just over 1,000 cases over the past four months .
Writing in Foreign Policy on Tuesday , Milagros Costabel tells the story of how Uruguay , against long odds ( including a border with Brazil ) , has avoided the worst of the pandemic .
Pompeo in Denmark .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Denmark today for talks with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen that will include discussions about China and the coronavirus pandemic , according to a State Department statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeppe Kofod , Faroese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Education Jenis av Rana , and Greenlandic Minister of Foreign Affairs and Energy Steen Lynge before returning to the United States .
Ethopia , Egypt , Sudan agree to keep talking on Nile dispute .
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said that his country , along with Egypt and Sudan had come to a “ major common understanding which paves the way for a breakthrough agreement ” on a dam development that is causing tensions in the region .
Ethiopia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the $ 4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile river , potentially depriving the countries downstream of much needed water .
Ethiopia maintains the rising water levels are due to heavy rains .
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said the leaders had agreed to “ give priority to developing a binding legal commitment regarding the basis for filling and operating the dam.
” U.S. indicts two Chinese hackers .
The U.S. Justice Department indicted two Chinese men for their role in cyber espionage campaigns that stole data from U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and most recently coronavirus vaccine research over a ten year period .
Li Xiaoyu and Dong Jiazhi are alleged to have been contracted by China ’ s Ministry of State Security who provided assistance in the hacking campaigns , U.S. prosecutors said .
Pakistan next to ban TikTok ?
Pakistan could follow India as the next South Asian country to ban the popular video app TikTok after it issued a final warning to the company over “ obscenity , vulgarity and immorality ” on the platform , according to a government statement .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ service Bigo , citing similar threats to public decency .
Suu Kyi running again .
Myanmar ’ s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi will stand again as a candidate in the country ’ s upcoming parliamentary elections , scheduled for November 8 .
Suu Kyi currently holds the position of “ state counselor ” as a law prevents her from becoming president .
Suu Kyi ’ s National League for Democracy party is expected to win the election , but the size of her alliance could be dented by the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country ’ s ethnic groups .
Tanzania vote date confirmed .
On Tuesday , Tanzania ’ s electoral commission set October 28 as the date for the country ’ s presidential election .
The challenger to the incumbent , President John Magufuli , has yet to be decided .
Opposition figures have accused Magufuli of obscuring the true nature of the country ’ s coronavirus pandemic .
On Monday , Magufuli declared the country open to tourists and coronavirus-free .
Venice ’ s famous gondoliers have reduced the maximum number of people allowed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of “ overweight tourists.
” The new measures bring the capacity from six to five on smaller vessels , and 14 to 12 on larger ones .
“ Unlike in a lift , where there ’ s a message that says ‘ only six people or a maximum weight ’ , we don ’ t have scales to weigh people , and so we reduced the number of passengers , ” Andrea Balbi , president of Venice ’ s gondoliers association , told the Guardian .
Raoul Roveratto , the president of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Advancing with over half a tonne of meat on board is dangerous , ” he told La Repubblica .
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was forced to record a video recommending a 2005 Joaquin Phoenix-narrated documentary on animal cruelty in order to help free 13 citizens being held hostage in the town of Lutsk .
The demand was made by Maksym Kryvosh , an animal rights activist who had seized a bus and began an armed standoff with police with the 13 hostages on board .
Shortly after the hostages were all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. one-day coronavirus deaths break 1,000 for first time since May, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Denmark , and Pakistan targets TikTok over “obscenity, vulgarity and immorality.”
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. one-day coronavirus deaths break 1,000 for first time since May, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Denmark, and Pakistan targets TikTok over “obscenity, vulgarity and immorality.”
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Death Toll Begins to Catch Up on Explosion in New Cases
On Tuesday, the daily coronavirus death toll in the United States exceeded 1,000 for the first time since May, as the effects of a recent explosion in the number of cases is becoming clear. Deaths were highest in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and California, the four states who have recorded the majority of new cases.
Even as the U.S. death toll increases, it still did not record the most deaths worldwide on Tuesday. That infamy lies with Brazil, where 1,346 deaths were reported. Of the ten countries with the highest one-day death toll on Tuesday, six were in the Western Hemisphere (Mexico, Peru, Argentina, and Colombia join Brazil and the United States on the list).
What the White House is saying. Faced with a problem that is not going away, despite his predictions, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to acknowledge the dire situation the country is now in. “It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better—something I don’t like saying about things but that’s the way it is,” Trump said during a White House press briefing. He also urged Americans to wear masks, echoing a tweet sent from his Twitter account on Monday.
How Uruguay dodged the worst. While other countries in the Americas founder, Uruguay has found a way to keep its epidemic in check, recording just over 1,000 cases over the past four months. Writing in Foreign Policy on Tuesday, Milagros Costabel tells the story of how Uruguay, against long odds (including a border with Brazil), has avoided the worst of the pandemic.
Another Coronavirus Casualty: Remittances The great recession of 2008 caused a 10 percent dip in the amount of cash migrants sent home in the form of remittances. As mass unemployment looms, the World Bank is predicting an even bigger crash following the coronavirus pandemic: a full 20 percent drop. In Foreign Policy on July 20, Zuhumnan Dapel outlined the damage such a shortfall will have on developing economies.
What We’re Following Today
Pompeo in Denmark. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Denmark today for talks with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen that will include discussions about China and the coronavirus pandemic, according to a State Department statement. Pompeo will also meet with Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeppe Kofod, Faroese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Education Jenis av Rana, and Greenlandic Minister of Foreign Affairs and Energy Steen Lynge before returning to the United States.
Ethopia, Egypt, Sudan agree to keep talking on Nile dispute. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said that his country, along with Egypt and Sudan had come to a “major common understanding which paves the way for a breakthrough agreement” on a dam development that is causing tensions in the region. Ethiopia had been suspected of over-filling the reservoir at the $4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile river, potentially depriving the countries downstream of much needed water. Ethiopia maintains the rising water levels are due to heavy rains. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said the leaders had agreed to “give priority to developing a binding legal commitment regarding the basis for filling and operating the dam.”
U.S. indicts two Chinese hackers. The U.S. Justice Department indicted two Chinese men for their role in cyber espionage campaigns that stole data from U.S. defense contractors, nuclear power facilities, and most recently coronavirus vaccine research over a ten year period. Li Xiaoyu and Dong Jiazhi are alleged to have been contracted by China’s Ministry of State Security who provided assistance in the hacking campaigns, U.S. prosecutors said.
Pakistan next to ban TikTok? Pakistan could follow India as the next South Asian country to ban the popular video app TikTok after it issued a final warning to the company over “obscenity, vulgarity and immorality” on the platform, according to a government statement. On Tuesday, Pakistan blocked the streaming service Bigo, citing similar threats to public decency.
Keep an Eye On
Suu Kyi running again. Myanmar’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi will stand again as a candidate in the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for November 8. Suu Kyi currently holds the position of “state counselor” as a law prevents her from becoming president. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party is expected to win the election, but the size of her alliance could be dented by the government’s poor performance in empowering the country’s ethnic groups.
Tanzania vote date confirmed. On Tuesday, Tanzania’s electoral commission set October 28 as the date for the country’s presidential election. The challenger to the incumbent, President John Magufuli, has yet to be decided. Opposition figures have accused Magufuli of obscuring the true nature of the country’s coronavirus pandemic. On Monday, Magufuli declared the country open to tourists and coronavirus-free.
Odds and Ends
Venice’s famous gondoliers have reduced the maximum number of people allowed on their boats, citing the problem of “overweight tourists.” The new measures bring the capacity from six to five on smaller vessels, and 14 to 12 on larger ones. “Unlike in a lift, where there’s a message that says ‘only six people or a maximum weight’, we don’t have scales to weigh people, and so we reduced the number of passengers,” Andrea Balbi, president of Venice’s gondoliers association, told the Guardian. Raoul Roveratto, the president of the association of substitute gondoliers was more blunt. “Advancing with over half a tonne of meat on board is dangerous,” he told La Repubblica.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was forced to record a video recommending a 2005 Joaquin Phoenix-narrated documentary on animal cruelty in order to help free 13 citizens being held hostage in the town of Lutsk. The demand was made by Maksym Kryvosh, an animal rights activist who had seized a bus and began an armed standoff with police with the 13 hostages on board. Shortly after the hostages were all freed, Zelensky deleted the video.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-22--Why Did Trump Shut Down China’s Houston Consulate?

Why Did Trump Shut Down China ’ s Houston Consulate ?
Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s China Brief .
The highlights this week : The Trump administration closes the Chinese consulate in Houston , the U.K. government strengthens its rhetoric on abuses in Xinjiang , and floods in southern China could endanger some dams .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
The courtyard of the Chinese consulate in Houston was full of piles of burning papers on Tuesday , after the U.S. government ordered the site @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notice .
The move is a serious escalation between Washington and Beijing .
It is likely to be met with the Chinese closure of a similarly sized U.S. consulate , such as in Wuhan or Chengdu .
Destruction of sensitive material such as diplomatic communications is standard protocol for shuttered consulates and does not by itself indicate illicit activity—though it certainly doesn ’ t exclude it .
One prompt for the closure appears to have been the treatment of U.S. diplomats returning to China in the post-pandemic era .
They have been shuttled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forced to charter expensive private flights back to the United States if they return positive .
But the Trump administration attributed the closure to the need to “ protect American intellectual property , ” and Sen. Marco Rubio claimed the consulate was a “ massive spy center.
” What doesn ’ t add up .
Houston is an odd pick to target for intelligence allegations .
The activities cited by the administration are vague ; even if true , they are comparable if not somewhat weaker than past Chinese espionage activities in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States is also mostly centered around the San Francisco consulate and , to a lesser extent , those in New York and Chicago .
Houston mostly processes visa paperwork , although it has been involved in China ’ s aggressive energy diplomacy .
According to a current State Department official who requested anonymity , San Francisco was considered for closure but rejected due to its size and importance : The city has a large Chinese American population , and a large number of visas are processed at the consulate .
Houston @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low-hanging fruit .
Strategic absence .
What is the point of all this ?
The barely explained closure is part of a series of provocative steps rolled out in recent weeks by the Trump administration , including planned weekly indictments in espionage cases .
China is a consistently bad actor in the relationship , including constant harassment against U.S. personnel in China , wild allegations of CIA plots , and large-scale cyberattacks—all of which have recently ramped up as Beijing cracks down in Hong Kong , rattles sabers in the South China Sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Uighur people .
But some Trump staff seem to think of reciprocal action as a goal in itself .
If there is an end goal—other than a dubious election strategy—it may be to force U.S. companies into a position of such uncertainty in China that they begin decoupling from the country voluntarily .
At any rate , expect the relationship to get much worse in the immediate future .
U.K. moves on Xinjiang .
Viral drone footage , combined with a prominent hunger strike , created a new urgency this week within the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab accused China of “ gross and egregious ” violations of human rights at the same time as he suspended the extradition treaty between Britain and Hong Kong on July 20 .
Meanwhile , in an interview with the BBC on July 19 , the Chinese ambassador to the United Kingdom came across as untruthful and aggressive .
( China ’ s own inability to understand its diplomats ’ poor performance with a foreign audience was visible in the embassy ’ s promotion of the interview . )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly supportive of the Uighur cause , drawing parallels with the Holocaust .
While Britain is playing a particularly prominent role because of its historical connection to Hong Kong , opposition to China has grown sharply across Europe in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic .
Dam watch .
The massive flooding—the worst since 1998—across southern China has already claimed one small dam , deliberately destroyed to lower flood levels .
There are fears that the flooding , which has already claimed at least 150 lives and caused $ 7 billion in damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Three Gorges—with potentially catastrophic consequences .
China ’ s infrastructure boom between the 1980s and the 2010s led to shoddy construction due to widespread corruption and intense time pressure , with bridge collapses in particular a regular event .
The intense attention paid to water control means the quality of large dams is generally high , however .
De-escalation questions .
Indian sources are accusing China of failing to meet its commitments to de-escalate on the border , with tens of thousands more Chinese troops allegedly moved back to the area .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ following the deadly clash in the Galwan Valley , although the Chinese public has largely moved on to its quarrel with the United States .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave prominent support to India ’ s position on Tuesday , suggesting a U.S. willingness to support New Delhi .
Taiwanese rebranding .
Taiwan ’ s legislature has voted to rename the country ’ s main flight carrier , currently known as China Airlines , and to remove the phrase Republic of China from Taiwanese passports .
The increasingly anti-China mood in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebrandings : The country ’ s official name , the Republic of China , is now seen as a holdover from a different era .
Such moves are likely to produce hysterical reactions from Beijing , reemphasizing the need for Taiwan ’ s long-term national strategy of decoupling from its largest trade partner .
Back on the big screen .
Cinemas officially reopened across China this week in low-risk areas , following earlier sporadic openings .
Social distancing is strictly enforced , with the number of seats reduced .
There is still likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office numbers for the year , and access to U.S. films is likely to be even tighter , given the Chinese authorities ’ cultural paranoia .
Risky rallies .
China ’ s messy stock markets are seeing post-pandemic rallies , but that ’ s stirring fears among regulators .
Markets have seen rises of between 14 and 20 percent , largely driven by margin trading—one of the causes of the 2015 crash .
Stock markets in China are much less important than in the West , due to the lack of transparent financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a deliberately limited range of trading .
This exhaustive look at China ’ s influence policies in Europe follows on from Clive Hamilton ’ s important but controversial earlier work on Australia , Silent Invasion .
Hamilton and Marieke Ohlberg detail many levels of Chinese influence operations , from the cultivation of front groups to the subversion of key politicians .
The wide scope of the book ’ s framing sometimes leads to dubious assertions , and the distinction between the regular efforts of state diplomacy and illicit influence is somewhat unclear , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: The Trump administration closes the Chinese consulate in Houston , the U.K. government strengthens its rhetoric on abuses in Xinjiang, and floods in southern China could endanger some dams.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: The Trump administration closes the Chinese consulate in Houston, the U.K. government strengthens its rhetoric on abuses in Xinjiang, and floods in southern China could endanger some dams.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
Trump Administration Abruptly Shutters Consulate
The courtyard of the Chinese consulate in Houston was full of piles of burning papers on Tuesday, after the U.S. government ordered the site to close with just 72 hours’ notice. The move is a serious escalation between Washington and Beijing. It is likely to be met with the Chinese closure of a similarly sized U.S. consulate, such as in Wuhan or Chengdu. Destruction of sensitive material such as diplomatic communications is standard protocol for shuttered consulates and does not by itself indicate illicit activity—though it certainly doesn’t exclude it.
One prompt for the closure appears to have been the treatment of U.S. diplomats returning to China in the post-pandemic era. They have been shuttled around the country for COVID-19 tests and forced to charter expensive private flights back to the United States if they return positive. But the Trump administration attributed the closure to the need to “protect American intellectual property,” and Sen. Marco Rubio claimed the consulate was a “massive spy center.”
What doesn’t add up. Houston is an odd pick to target for intelligence allegations. The activities cited by the administration are vague; even if true, they are comparable if not somewhat weaker than past Chinese espionage activities in the United States. Chinese intelligence work in the United States is also mostly centered around the San Francisco consulate and, to a lesser extent, those in New York and Chicago. Houston mostly processes visa paperwork, although it has been involved in China’s aggressive energy diplomacy.
According to a current State Department official who requested anonymity, San Francisco was considered for closure but rejected due to its size and importance: The city has a large Chinese American population, and a large number of visas are processed at the consulate. Houston, on the other hand, was low-hanging fruit.
Strategic absence. What is the point of all this? The barely explained closure is part of a series of provocative steps rolled out in recent weeks by the Trump administration, including planned weekly indictments in espionage cases. China is a consistently bad actor in the relationship, including constant harassment against U.S. personnel in China, wild allegations of CIA plots, and large-scale cyberattacks—all of which have recently ramped up as Beijing cracks down in Hong Kong, rattles sabers in the South China Sea, and continues its assault against the Uighur people.
But some Trump staff seem to think of reciprocal action as a goal in itself. If there is an end goal—other than a dubious election strategy—it may be to force U.S. companies into a position of such uncertainty in China that they begin decoupling from the country voluntarily. At any rate, expect the relationship to get much worse in the immediate future.
What We’re Following
U.K. moves on Xinjiang. Viral drone footage, combined with a prominent hunger strike, created a new urgency this week within the U.K. government over the atrocities in Xinjiang. U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab accused China of “gross and egregious” violations of human rights at the same time as he suspended the extradition treaty between Britain and Hong Kong on July 20. Meanwhile, in an interview with the BBC on July 19, the Chinese ambassador to the United Kingdom came across as untruthful and aggressive. (China’s own inability to understand its diplomats’ poor performance with a foreign audience was visible in the embassy’s promotion of the interview.)
Britain’s Jewish community has been particularly supportive of the Uighur cause, drawing parallels with the Holocaust. While Britain is playing a particularly prominent role because of its historical connection to Hong Kong, opposition to China has grown sharply across Europe in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
Dam watch. The massive flooding—the worst since 1998—across southern China has already claimed one small dam, deliberately destroyed to lower flood levels. There are fears that the flooding, which has already claimed at least 150 lives and caused $7 billion in damage, could endanger larger dams such as the Three Gorges—with potentially catastrophic consequences. China’s infrastructure boom between the 1980s and the 2010s led to shoddy construction due to widespread corruption and intense time pressure, with bridge collapses in particular a regular event. The intense attention paid to water control means the quality of large dams is generally high, however.
De-escalation questions. Indian sources are accusing China of failing to meet its commitments to de-escalate on the border, with tens of thousands more Chinese troops allegedly moved back to the area. Feelings in India are still running high following the deadly clash in the Galwan Valley, although the Chinese public has largely moved on to its quarrel with the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave prominent support to India’s position on Tuesday, suggesting a U.S. willingness to support New Delhi.
Tech and Business
Taiwanese rebranding. Taiwan’s legislature has voted to rename the country’s main flight carrier, currently known as China Airlines, and to remove the phrase Republic of China from Taiwanese passports. The increasingly anti-China mood in Taiwan is likely to produce more such rebrandings: The country’s official name, the Republic of China, is now seen as a holdover from a different era. Such moves are likely to produce hysterical reactions from Beijing, reemphasizing the need for Taiwan’s long-term national strategy of decoupling from its largest trade partner.
Back on the big screen. Cinemas officially reopened across China this week in low-risk areas, following earlier sporadic openings. Social distancing is strictly enforced, with the number of seats reduced. There is still likely to be a large crash in box office numbers for the year, and access to U.S. films is likely to be even tighter, given the Chinese authorities’ cultural paranoia.
Risky rallies. China’s messy stock markets are seeing post-pandemic rallies, but that’s stirring fears among regulators. Markets have seen rises of between 14 and 20 percent, largely driven by margin trading—one of the causes of the 2015 crash. Stock markets in China are much less important than in the West, due to the lack of transparent financial information, strong government controls, and a deliberately limited range of trading.
What We’re Reading Hidden Hand, Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg, Oneworld Publications, Sept. 2020
Hidden Hand, by Clive Hamilton and Marieke Ohlberg
This exhaustive look at China’s influence policies in Europe follows on from Clive Hamilton’s important but controversial earlier work on Australia, Silent Invasion. Hamilton and Marieke Ohlberg detail many levels of Chinese influence operations, from the cultivation of front groups to the subversion of key politicians. The wide scope of the book’s framing sometimes leads to dubious assertions, and the distinction between the regular efforts of state diplomacy and illicit influence is somewhat unclear, but the book is comprehensive and useful.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.