foreignpolicy--2020-04-02--Is China Underreporting Its Coronavirus Figures?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The United States questions China ’ s coronavirus figures , WHO warns of 1 million cases in “ next few days , ” and U.S. Navy to patrol near Venezuela .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Even as global economies grind to a halt , Great Power competition has not—and the question of who deserves the blame for the slow global response to the pandemic is taking center stage .
The White House has moved on from calling the coronavirus the “ Chinese virus ” and is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misleading infection figures .
A U.S. intelligence community assessment backs this up , suggesting China underreported its number of coronavirus cases .
On Wednesday , China began disclosing the number of asymptomatic coronavirus cases alongside any new numbers .
This has the potential to muddy the waters and disrupt overall counts .
According to the South China Morning Post , China identified over 43,000 asymptomatic cases in February that were not included in China ’ s overall tally .
Although National Security Advisor Robert O ’ Brien said that the United States is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any of the numbers coming out of China , ” U.S. President Donald Trump was ambivalent , “ As to whether or not their numbers are accurate , I ’ m not an accountant from China … we don ’ t have to make a big deal out of it , ” he said .
Even if China ’ s fudged the numbers , was the U.S. adequately prepared ?
While the White House seeks to pass around the blame , evidence is mounting that the United States should have been better prepared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. Department of Defense report from 2017 surfaced yesterday warning of a “ novel respiratory disease , particularly a novel influenza disease ” as the most likely pandemic threat .
On March 25 in Foreign Policy , Micah Zenko called the coronavirus pandemic the “ worst intelligence failure in U.S. history ” and one that rests squarely on Trump ’ s shoulders , given the warnings that intelligence agencies provided .
As Mark Perry reports in FP , simulation exercises from as early as 2001—and as recently as last October—painted a clear picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could unleash , but the warnings were ignored .
U.S .
Senator Chris Murphy wrote in FP earlier this week that the Trump administration has “ completely botched ” the coronavirus response and that Washington must start planning now for the next pandemic so it is never caught flat-footed again .
Compounding U.S. problems , Trump reported on Wednesday that the federal strategic stockpile of personal protective equipment is near empty .
On the same day , the pro-Kremlin Russian news outlet RT live-streamed a Russian plane carrying humanitarian aid arriving at New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delivery “ represents a major optics win for Moscow as the worldwide delivery of medical supplies from competing powers takes on an increasingly geopolitical edge , ” FP ’ s Amy Mackinnon and Robbie Gramer report .
Does it matter if China is underreporting cases ?
According to Maria van Kerkhove , an epidemiologist with the World Health Organization , the WHO ’ s definition of a coronavirus infection includes asymptomatic cases for a reason .
“ From data that we have seen from China in particular , we know that individuals who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asymptomatic , about 75 percent of those actually go on to develop symptoms , ” she said .
Writing in Foreign Policy ’ s weekly China Brief , FP Senior Editor James Palmer lays out why China ’ s figures may be unreliable , “ The question is this : How false is the data , and how deliberate is the concealment ?
There is a difference between numbers that are deliberately faked for the outside world and a state struggling—as all countries are—to gather information on a virus that is difficult to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is likely that Beijing is deliberately underreporting the death toll in Wuhan , where the outbreak began , and the total number of cases across the country in February , ” Palmer writes .
“ Bad numbers in China are always underreported , especially when the national image is at stake , and China is now keen to play up its victory against the virus in contrast with the West ’ s failures .
Still , it ’ s not as if the Chinese leadership has a secret set of books containing more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysis on stories like this , sign up for China Brief , delivered on Wednesdays .
U.S. to deploy more ships near Venezuela .
In what officials say is a bid to halt drug trafficking in the region , the United States will deploy navy ships closer to Venezuela .
Sources told Reuters that although U.S. Southern Command plans to move several Navy vessels closer to Venezuelan territory , but did not specify how close .
The move comes as the United States attempts to increase pressure on Venezuela following a U.S. Justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several of his associates .
On Tuesday , the United States offered to lift sanctions on Venezuela if it accepted a U.S. proposal that includes the removal of Maduro from office .
WHO warns of 1 million coronavirus cases .
In a news conference yesterday , WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the world should expect over a million confirmed coronavirus cases and 50,000 deaths in the next few days as he reported a “ near-exponential growth ” in the number of cases worldwide in the past five weeks .
Tedros also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and International Monetary Fund all backed providing debt relief to developing countries as they cope with the pandemic .
On Wednesday , the IMF and World Bank said that Somalia had met the conditions for debt relief , and would see its debt burden drop from $ 5.2 billion to $ 577 million in about 3 years .
Coronavirus spreads to Brazil ’ s indigenous peoples .
In a signal of the pandemic ’ s vast spread , a 19-year-old woman became the first member of Brazil ’ s indigenous communities to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s health ministry .
The woman , a health worker and member of the Kokama tribe , contracted the virus in a district deep in the Amazon , over 500 miles from Manaus in the state of Amazonas .
Health experts worry of rapid contagion because of the communal living habits of some tribes .
Trump warns of Iran “ sneak attack.
” Citing both “ information and belief , ” Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran or an Iran-backed group are planning a “ sneak attack ” against U.S. forces in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his sources .
U.S. and coalition forces suffered multiple rocket attacks in Iraq during the month of March by suspected Iranian-backed militias .
Indeed , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cited the attacks when he announced further sanctions on Iranian companies and individuals on March 18 .
Japan to distribute masks for all .
In what could become a worldwide trend , the Japanese government says it will distribute two reusable cloth facemasks to 50 million Japanese households .
Unlike the West , Japan already has a mask wearing culture ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run out in some Japanese stores .
On Tuesday a memo sent from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the White House said the widespread wearing of masks could be beneficial to halting the spread of the coronavirus in the United States .
Africom ’ s airstrike casualties questioned .
The U.S. Africa Command says it is looking into whether airstrikes conducted against al-Shabab in February killed civilians following a report from Amnesty International .
The group alleges that two airstrikes killed two people not involved with the Islamist group , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members were killed in the strikes .
The United States is on track to conduct a record number of airstrikes in the Africom region .
In 2019 , the United States launched a record 63 strikes , and has already launched 32 in 2020 .
Malaysia ’ s Ministry for Women , Family , and Community Development halted a public information campaign after it was called out for its obvious sexism .
Online infographics posted by the ministry encouraged women at home on lockdown to continue wearing makeup , dress in office clothes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After a social media backlash , the ministry said the campaign was focused on “ maintaining positive relationships among family members during the period they are working from home , ” and promised it would “ remain cautious in the future.
” For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States questions China’s coronavirus figures , WHO warns of 1 million cases in the “next few days,” and the U.S. Navy will patrol near Venezuela .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States questions China’s coronavirus figures, WHO warns of 1 million cases in the “next few days,” and the U.S. Navy will patrol near Venezuela.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
U.S. Intelligence Alleges China Underreported Coronavirus Cases
Even as global economies grind to a halt, Great Power competition has not—and the question of who deserves the blame for the slow global response to the pandemic is taking center stage. The White House has moved on from calling the coronavirus the “Chinese virus” and is instead pointing to China’s allegedly misleading infection figures. A U.S. intelligence community assessment backs this up, suggesting China underreported its number of coronavirus cases.
On Wednesday, China began disclosing the number of asymptomatic coronavirus cases alongside any new numbers. This has the potential to muddy the waters and disrupt overall counts. According to the South China Morning Post, China identified over 43,000 asymptomatic cases in February that were not included in China’s overall tally.
Although National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said that the United States is “not in a position to confirm any of the numbers coming out of China,” U.S. President Donald Trump was ambivalent, “As to whether or not their numbers are accurate, I’m not an accountant from China … we don’t have to make a big deal out of it,” he said.
Even if China’s fudged the numbers, was the U.S. adequately prepared? While the White House seeks to pass around the blame, evidence is mounting that the United States should have been better prepared to face the pandemic. A leaked U.S. Department of Defense report from 2017 surfaced yesterday warning of a “novel respiratory disease, particularly a novel influenza disease” as the most likely pandemic threat.
On March 25 in Foreign Policy, Micah Zenko called the coronavirus pandemic the “worst intelligence failure in U.S. history” and one that rests squarely on Trump’s shoulders, given the warnings that intelligence agencies provided. As Mark Perry reports in FP, simulation exercises from as early as 2001—and as recently as last October—painted a clear picture of the economic devastation a global pandemic could unleash, but the warnings were ignored. U.S. Senator Chris Murphy wrote in FP earlier this week that the Trump administration has “completely botched” the coronavirus response and that Washington must start planning now for the next pandemic so it is never caught flat-footed again.
Compounding U.S. problems, Trump reported on Wednesday that the federal strategic stockpile of personal protective equipment is near empty. On the same day, the pro-Kremlin Russian news outlet RT live-streamed a Russian plane carrying humanitarian aid arriving at New York’s JFK airport. The delivery “represents a major optics win for Moscow as the worldwide delivery of medical supplies from competing powers takes on an increasingly geopolitical edge,” FP’s Amy Mackinnon and Robbie Gramer report.
Does it matter if China is underreporting cases? According to Maria van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist with the World Health Organization, the WHO’s definition of a coronavirus infection includes asymptomatic cases for a reason. “From data that we have seen from China in particular, we know that individuals who are identified, who are listed as asymptomatic, about 75 percent of those actually go on to develop symptoms,” she said.
Writing in Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief, FP Senior Editor James Palmer lays out why China’s figures may be unreliable, “The question is this: How false is the data, and how deliberate is the concealment? There is a difference between numbers that are deliberately faked for the outside world and a state struggling—as all countries are—to gather information on a virus that is difficult to detect in many people.”
“It is likely that Beijing is deliberately underreporting the death toll in Wuhan, where the outbreak began, and the total number of cases across the country in February,” Palmer writes. “Bad numbers in China are always underreported, especially when the national image is at stake, and China is now keen to play up its victory against the virus in contrast with the West’s failures. Still, it’s not as if the Chinese leadership has a secret set of books containing more accurate figures.”
For more news and analysis on stories like this, sign up for China Brief, delivered on Wednesdays.
What We’re Following Today
U.S. to deploy more ships near Venezuela. In what officials say is a bid to halt drug trafficking in the region, the United States will deploy navy ships closer to Venezuela. Sources told Reuters that although U.S. Southern Command plans to move several Navy vessels closer to Venezuelan territory, but did not specify how close. The move comes as the United States attempts to increase pressure on Venezuela following a U.S. Justice Department indictment of President Nicolás Maduro and several of his associates. On Tuesday, the United States offered to lift sanctions on Venezuela if it accepted a U.S. proposal that includes the removal of Maduro from office.
WHO warns of 1 million coronavirus cases. In a news conference yesterday, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the world should expect over a million confirmed coronavirus cases and 50,000 deaths in the next few days as he reported a “near-exponential growth” in the number of cases worldwide in the past five weeks. Tedros also said that the WHO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund all backed providing debt relief to developing countries as they cope with the pandemic. On Wednesday, the IMF and World Bank said that Somalia had met the conditions for debt relief, and would see its debt burden drop from $5.2 billion to $577 million in about 3 years.
Coronavirus spreads to Brazil’s indigenous peoples. In a signal of the pandemic’s vast spread, a 19-year-old woman became the first member of Brazil’s indigenous communities to contract the coronavirus, according to Brazil’s health ministry. The woman, a health worker and member of the Kokama tribe, contracted the virus in a district deep in the Amazon, over 500 miles from Manaus in the state of Amazonas. Health experts worry of rapid contagion because of the communal living habits of some tribes.
Keep an Eye On
Trump warns of Iran “sneak attack.” Citing both “information and belief,” Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran or an Iran-backed group are planning a “sneak attack” against U.S. forces in Iraq. Trump didn’t elaborate on his sources. U.S. and coalition forces suffered multiple rocket attacks in Iraq during the month of March by suspected Iranian-backed militias. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cited the attacks when he announced further sanctions on Iranian companies and individuals on March 18.
Japan to distribute masks for all. In what could become a worldwide trend, the Japanese government says it will distribute two reusable cloth facemasks to 50 million Japanese households. Unlike the West, Japan already has a mask wearing culture; even so, stocks of masks have run out in some Japanese stores. On Tuesday a memo sent from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the White House said the widespread wearing of masks could be beneficial to halting the spread of the coronavirus in the United States.
Africom’s airstrike casualties questioned. The U.S. Africa Command says it is looking into whether airstrikes conducted against al-Shabab in February killed civilians following a report from Amnesty International. The group alleges that two airstrikes killed two people not involved with the Islamist group, despite Africom initially reporting that only al-Shabab members were killed in the strikes. The United States is on track to conduct a record number of airstrikes in the Africom region. In 2019, the United States launched a record 63 strikes, and has already launched 32 in 2020.
Odds and Ends
Malaysia’s Ministry for Women, Family, and Community Development halted a public information campaign after it was called out for its obvious sexism. Online infographics posted by the ministry encouraged women at home on lockdown to continue wearing makeup, dress in office clothes, and refrain from nagging their husbands. After a social media backlash, the ministry said the campaign was focused on “maintaining positive relationships among family members during the period they are working from home,” and promised it would “remain cautious in the future.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-02--Trump Talks Up Oil Markets, but the Economy Is Still Tanking

Trump Talks Up Oil Markets , but the Economy Is Still Tanking Oil markets thrust an arm out of the grave Thursday with an unprecedented , if brief , 40 percent gain after U.S. President Donald Trump said he ’ d secured an agreement with Russia and Saudi Arabia to take as many as 15 million barrels off the market to shore up collapsing prices in the face of the coronavirus shutdown .
But , market reaction aside , it ’ s not remotely clear what he is talking about .
There is no actual agreement to trim production among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Saudi Arabia , and Russia—let alone the other members of OPEC or other countries , like Mexico or Brazil .
And it ’ s also unclear what Trump was even referring to in terms of production cuts—whether total barrels of oil or barrels per day or who might be making the cuts or why .
Saudi Arabia , on the heels of Trump ’ s tweets , said it would like to have an urgent meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC members to start discussing output cuts in weeks or months to come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are as mystified as everyone else with Trump ’ s invented numbers .
Russia simply denied everything .
All the while , global demand for crude oil has absolutely cratered to a degree never before seen thanks to the coronavirus and the subsequent shutdowns of much of Asia , Europe , and parts of the United States , with demand down between 20 million and 30 million barrels a day , making any effort to lock the barn door now an exercise in futility .
“ They can take as much as they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is enough already in and still headed to storage , and if anything , the demand picture is only going to get worse in the United States and Europe over the next six weeks , ” said Niamh McBurney , the head of Middle East and North Africa at Verisk Maplecroft , a risk consultancy .
Unemployment claims in the United States shattered previous records , with more than 6.6 million new claims in the last week—bringing the toll from the pandemic to 10 million in just two weeks , with more to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also broke records with new unemployment claims , underscoring just how the virus has paralyzed economic activity across the entire world .
“ This is where the Russians were right ” when talks among OPEC and its partners broke down early last month , she said .
“ There is no amount you can cut to make up for that gap.
” Crude oil prices came back to earth a little bit later Thursday , with increases of about 20 percent in New York and London , which still left prices in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for U.S. producers and painful for Russia and Saudi Arabia .
But what seems clear is that the catastrophic collapse in oil demand is focusing minds , to some extent , from Midland to Mecca , if not yet to Moscow .
The problem for oil markets is less the oil price war that Russia and Saudi Arabia unleashed last month—partly in a bid to sink competition from prolific U.S. oil producers who need higher prices—than the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath .
Trump plans to meet Friday and over the weekend with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are struggling with prices about half where they need to be for profitability ; one big U.S. oil company declared bankruptcy this week .
Options on the table include some sort of coordinated production cut , targeted relief for troubled oil firms , or government purchases of excess oil , either to stash in the strategic reserve or , perhaps , on rail cars .
Markets seem to be expecting a grand bargain , with Trump strong-arming U.S. producers into making cuts and Russia , Saudi Arabia , and other big oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saudi Arabia , and to a degree in Russia , oil in the United States isn ’ t a state-run business .
That makes it hard for leaders like Trump to guarantee cooperation , especially when big oil producers seem happy to ride out the carnage and pick over the remains of smaller , independent oil companies .
( Meanwhile , the top regulator of the oil industry in Texas said he is talking with Saudi Arabia about large coordinated cuts . )
“ It ’ s not very likely that the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ formal output cuts , said Ann-Louise Hittle , the vice president of oils research at Wood Mackenzie , an energy consultancy .
“ So the question is : Is Saudi Arabia going to cut a lot and Russia a little bit ?
There is a big step yet to occur.
” The problem is compounded by the relative resilience of Russia and Saudi Arabia , both of which can pump oil a lot more cheaply than U.S. producers can , giving them more staying power .
Even with lower prices , Saudi Arabia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two months means its total revenues are about the same .
And both countries have close to half a trillion dollars in reserves to weather a few years of prolonged low oil prices—a luxury the heavily indebted U.S. oil companies don ’ t have .
“ The Saudis are one of the few producers who are in that position : They can flood the market , produce as much as they want , and still make money , ” McBurney said .
One reason—beyond the unprecedented drop in oil demand—the Saudis may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ truce in the oil wars that Trump suggested is the startling deterioration of relations with the United States .
U.S. lawmakers had previously taken aim at lots of Saudi policies , from the war in Yemen to its role as the ringleader of an oil cartel .
But that anti-Saudi rhetoric has amped up of late , with some U.S. lawmakers threatening U.S. military aid to the country , and with the prospect of tariffs on imports of Saudi oil on the table .
“ The bilateral relationship is probably at the lowest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a while , ” McBurney said .
The realization that the decades-old U.S. security relationship with Saudi Arabia could be at risk as its oil price war puts the U.S. oil patch squarely in the crosshairs could have led to a belated change of heart in Riyadh , suggested Jason Bordoff , the director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University .
“ I think the U.S.-Saudi diplomatic relationship is something very important to the kingdom—and which was clearly strained recently—as is its desire to have a reputation as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said .

Oil markets thrust an arm out of the grave Thursday with an unprecedented, if brief, 40 percent gain after U.S. President Donald Trump said he’d secured an agreement with Russia and Saudi Arabia to take as many as 15 million barrels off the market to shore up collapsing prices in the face of the coronavirus shutdown.
Oil markets thrust an arm out of the grave Thursday with an unprecedented, if brief, 40 percent gain after U.S. President Donald Trump said he’d secured an agreement with Russia and Saudi Arabia to take as many as 15 million barrels off the market to shore up collapsing prices in the face of the coronavirus shutdown.
But, market reaction aside, it’s not remotely clear what he is talking about.
There is no actual agreement to trim production among the three biggest oil producers—the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia—let alone the other members of OPEC or other countries, like Mexico or Brazil. And it’s also unclear what Trump was even referring to in terms of production cuts—whether total barrels of oil or barrels per day or who might be making the cuts or why.
Saudi Arabia, on the heels of Trump’s tweets, said it would like to have an urgent meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC members to start discussing output cuts in weeks or months to come; in the meantime, Saudi officials are as mystified as everyone else with Trump’s invented numbers. Russia simply denied everything.
All the while, global demand for crude oil has absolutely cratered to a degree never before seen thanks to the coronavirus and the subsequent shutdowns of much of Asia, Europe, and parts of the United States, with demand down between 20 million and 30 million barrels a day, making any effort to lock the barn door now an exercise in futility.
“They can take as much as they want off the market, but there is enough already in and still headed to storage, and if anything, the demand picture is only going to get worse in the United States and Europe over the next six weeks,” said Niamh McBurney, the head of Middle East and North Africa at Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy.
Unemployment claims in the United States shattered previous records, with more than 6.6 million new claims in the last week—bringing the toll from the pandemic to 10 million in just two weeks, with more to come. Spain and other European countries also broke records with new unemployment claims, underscoring just how the virus has paralyzed economic activity across the entire world.
“This is where the Russians were right” when talks among OPEC and its partners broke down early last month, she said. “There is no amount you can cut to make up for that gap.”
Crude oil prices came back to earth a little bit later Thursday, with increases of about 20 percent in New York and London, which still left prices in the mid-$20s per barrel, disastrous for U.S. producers and painful for Russia and Saudi Arabia.
But what seems clear is that the catastrophic collapse in oil demand is focusing minds, to some extent, from Midland to Mecca, if not yet to Moscow. The problem for oil markets is less the oil price war that Russia and Saudi Arabia unleashed last month—partly in a bid to sink competition from prolific U.S. oil producers who need higher prices—than the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath.
Trump plans to meet Friday and over the weekend with chief executives of big U.S. oil firms that are struggling with prices about half where they need to be for profitability; one big U.S. oil company declared bankruptcy this week. Options on the table include some sort of coordinated production cut, targeted relief for troubled oil firms, or government purchases of excess oil, either to stash in the strategic reserve or, perhaps, on rail cars.
Markets seem to be expecting a grand bargain, with Trump strong-arming U.S. producers into making cuts and Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other big oil producers following suit. But unlike in Saudi Arabia, and to a degree in Russia, oil in the United States isn’t a state-run business. That makes it hard for leaders like Trump to guarantee cooperation, especially when big oil producers seem happy to ride out the carnage and pick over the remains of smaller, independent oil companies. (Meanwhile, the top regulator of the oil industry in Texas said he is talking with Saudi Arabia about large coordinated cuts.)
“It’s not very likely that the United States is going to join” any formal output cuts, said Ann-Louise Hittle, the vice president of oils research at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy. “So the question is: Is Saudi Arabia going to cut a lot and Russia a little bit? There is a big step yet to occur.”
The problem is compounded by the relative resilience of Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of which can pump oil a lot more cheaply than U.S. producers can, giving them more staying power. Even with lower prices, Saudi Arabia’s increased output over the last two months means its total revenues are about the same. And both countries have close to half a trillion dollars in reserves to weather a few years of prolonged low oil prices—a luxury the heavily indebted U.S. oil companies don’t have.
“The Saudis are one of the few producers who are in that position: They can flood the market, produce as much as they want, and still make money,” McBurney said.
One reason—beyond the unprecedented drop in oil demand—the Saudis may be more willing to countenance the kind of truce in the oil wars that Trump suggested is the startling deterioration of relations with the United States. U.S. lawmakers had previously taken aim at lots of Saudi policies, from the war in Yemen to its role as the ringleader of an oil cartel. But that anti-Saudi rhetoric has amped up of late, with some U.S. lawmakers threatening U.S. military aid to the country, and with the prospect of tariffs on imports of Saudi oil on the table.
“The bilateral relationship is probably at the lowest ebb it’s been at for a while,” McBurney said.
The realization that the decades-old U.S. security relationship with Saudi Arabia could be at risk as its oil price war puts the U.S. oil patch squarely in the crosshairs could have led to a belated change of heart in Riyadh, suggested Jason Bordoff, the director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
“I think the U.S.-Saudi diplomatic relationship is something very important to the kingdom—and which was clearly strained recently—as is its desire to have a reputation as a responsible stabilizer of oil markets,” he said.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-02--A Deal to Stop the Saudis From Drowning U.S. Shale Would Come None Too Soon

A Deal to Stop the Saudis From Drowning U.S. Shale Would Come None Too Soon Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ’ s decision to launch an oil price war in the middle of a catastrophic global pandemic was a decidedly unfriendly act toward the United States .
It threatens to lay waste to an American shale oil industry that over the past decade has become a critical pillar of U.S. economic growth and national security .
On Thursday , U.S. President Donald Trump told CNBC that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to cut oil production .
Whether a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be seen—Saudi Arabia has denied any plans to cut .
But Trump has belatedly realized that salvaging the wreckage of a U.S. oil industry pummeled by the price collapse should be one of his highest priorities .
The Saudis moved to drown the markets in oil in early March , after Russia rejected Riyadh ’ s proposal to support global oil prices with a fresh round of production cuts .
The Russians claimed , not without justification , that the primary beneficiary of Saudi-Russian restraint since 2017 has been the U.S. shale oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices to increase production and seize market share .
Spurned by Moscow , Mohammed bin Salman reversed strategy overnight—from cutting supplies in order to stabilize prices to flooding the market in order to crash them .
The Saudis cut prices while pledging to dump an additional 2.5 million barrels per day on already-glutted markets .
Oil prices immediately posted their biggest losses in 30 years and , by late March , had cratered by more than 60 percent from their level in late 2019.A continuing oil price war could lay waste to an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a critical pillar of U.S. economic growth and national security .
Explanations for Mohammed bin Salman ’ s head-snapping shift in strategy have varied .
Was it a rash decision to punish Russian intransigence ?
Was it a short-term power play to coerce Moscow into negotiating ?
Or was there some longer-term method to the crown prince ’ s madness in the form of a strategy to radically transform oil markets , perhaps by driving higher-cost producers into insolvency ?
Whatever the Saudi intent , the impact on U.S. interests is clear .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world economy was already verging on meltdown due to the accelerating coronavirus pandemic .
The sudden crash in the price of the world ’ s most important commodity helped escalate the panic and volatility that sent financial markets plunging .
The price war , if sustained , is a near-certain death sentence for a majority of U.S. shale producers that were already struggling with high debt and the collapse in demand for jet fuel , gasoline , and ship bunkers amid worldwide lockdowns and travel bans .
Whether laying waste to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a factor in Mohammed bin Salman ’ s decision , it will almost certainly be one of the results .
Overnight , he put at risk tens of thousands of high-paying American jobs and struck a potentially mortal blow against a resurrected oil sector that has become a critical asset in Washington ’ s efforts to constrain oil-rich adversaries in such places as Iran and Venezuela .
Once the shale industry is lost in an avalanche of defaults , bankruptcies , and abandoned wells , the risks are high that the costs of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ future could be prohibitive .
It ’ s important that the United States see the Saudi decision for the irresponsible and unfriendly act that it was .
Trump ’ s initial reaction to the price plunge—focusing solely on the cost savings that U.S. consumers would get at the pumps—seemed particularly odd .
In recent years , the price of gasoline has been a nonissue for most Americans—witness the booming sales of gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs .
Moreover , in the context of the pandemic , most people are stuck at home and unable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Diffuse benefits on the consumption side are far outweighed by the economic , financial , and national security threats posed by the potential decimation of the shale oil industry .
Key U.S. officials understood that point before Trump .
On March 16 , 13 senators wrote a letter to Mohammed bin Salman decrying the Saudi move and calling on the kingdom to restabilize energy markets .
On March 25 , eight senators accused Saudi Arabia of “ economic warfare , ” threatening to withdraw U.S. security support and impose tariffs and sanctions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ introduced legislation on March 27 to remove U.S. troops from the country.In the Trump era , the Saudis have learned that if they are not hearing directly from the president or his son-in-law , they can ignore U.S. officials .
U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo called Mohammed bin Salman on March 24 to underscore “ the need to maintain stability in global energy markets.
” While more diplomatic than the senators , Pompeo ’ s basic message was the same : End the price war and work to stabilize prices .
Unfortunately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lesson that the Saudis have drawn is that if they are not hearing directly from the president or his senior aide and son-in-law , Jared Kushner , they can ignore the concerns expressed by other U.S. officials with impunity , whether the subject be the war in Yemen , the murder of Jamal Khashoggi , or , now , the oil price war .
Belatedly , Trump seems to have gained an appreciation for the stake the United States has in oil prices that work not just for American consumers , but for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 interview , Trump said that “ I never thought I ’ d be saying that maybe we have to have an oil [ price ] increase , because we do .
… We don ’ t want to have an industry that ’ s wiped out.
” In a subsequent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin , the two leaders “ agreed on the importance of stability in global energy markets , ” Reuters reported .
If the Saudi-Russian production cut announced by Trump is not forthcoming , then he needs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bin Salman and his father , King Salman .
In the past , Trump hasn ’ t hesitated to lambaste the Saudis when he believed they were damaging the U.S. economy .
In 2018 , he said that he had told King Salman that “ you might not be there for two weeks ” without U.S. protection .
Trump should apply similar screws to ensure the Saudis stick to any deal to back away from the price war .
Any threat of rupture with the kingdom ’ s most important ally would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Mohammed bin Salman ’ s personal standing within the royal family .
He can ’ t afford to risk losing Trump ’ s favor .
He fears Trump ’ s wrath .
The president should exploit that advantage .
An added sweetener that ’ s been hinted at by U.S. officials is the possibility of getting American oil producers to cooperate with OPEC on production limits .
While this kind of cooperation would be nearly unthinkable in ordinary times due to U.S. antitrust concerns , antipathy toward OPEC , and the lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these are anything but ordinary times .
The coronavirus crisis has dramatically expanded the spectrum of solutions that countries ( and imperiled industries ) are prepared to consider to weather the disaster now bearing down upon them.Whether the U.S. shale oil industry survives in its present form or not , the price war has already destroyed any notion of U.S. energy independence .
It may be ironic that the United States , after decades of criticizing the Saudis for keeping prices too high , is now attacking Riyadh for driving prices too low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fundamental bargain that rests at the core of the U.S.-Saudi relationship .
In exchange for America ’ s underwriting its security , the kingdom pledged to provide access to its oil at reasonable prices .
People may quibble over the meaning of “ reasonable.
” But in a world in which the U.S. military remains the one force standing between Saudi Arabia and a rapacious Iran , Washington is within its rights to inveigh against any Saudi oil strategy that undermines the foundations of U.S. economic power and national security—regardless of whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are too high or too low .
Whether the U.S. shale oil industry survives in its present form or not , what the current price war has already destroyed is any notion of U.S. energy independence .
When a foreign country can push a critical segment of the economy to the brink of extinction with the flick of a switch , “ independence ” is not a word that applies .
Beyond any short-term fixes to the price war , the United States still needs a long-term strategy for achieving true energy security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be taken is breaking oil ’ s near-monopoly in the transportation sector .
More electric vehicles are one answer , as are those powered by ethanol made from natural gas .
The latter would create a large new market for the U.S. energy industry , while reducing exposure to the damaging volatility of global oil markets that remain heavily influenced by foreign governments that rarely have U.S. interests at heart .
For now , however , all eyes are on Trump and Mohammed bin Salman .
Trump must rescue U.S. shale oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal to cut back production and stabilize prices will truly stick .

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s decision to launch an oil price war in the middle of a catastrophic global pandemic was a decidedly unfriendly act toward the United States. It threatens to lay waste to an American shale oil industry that over the past decade has become a critical pillar of U.S. economic growth and national security.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s decision to launch an oil price war in the middle of a catastrophic global pandemic was a decidedly unfriendly act toward the United States. It threatens to lay waste to an American shale oil industry that over the past decade has become a critical pillar of U.S. economic growth and national security.
On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump told CNBC that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to cut oil production. Whether a deal has actually been reached remains to be seen—Saudi Arabia has denied any plans to cut. But Trump has belatedly realized that salvaging the wreckage of a U.S. oil industry pummeled by the price collapse should be one of his highest priorities.
The Saudis moved to drown the markets in oil in early March, after Russia rejected Riyadh’s proposal to support global oil prices with a fresh round of production cuts. The Russians claimed, not without justification, that the primary beneficiary of Saudi-Russian restraint since 2017 has been the U.S. shale oil industry, which took advantage of elevated prices to increase production and seize market share.
Spurned by Moscow, Mohammed bin Salman reversed strategy overnight—from cutting supplies in order to stabilize prices to flooding the market in order to crash them. The Saudis cut prices while pledging to dump an additional 2.5 million barrels per day on already-glutted markets. Oil prices immediately posted their biggest losses in 30 years and, by late March, had cratered by more than 60 percent from their level in late 2019.A continuing oil price war could lay waste to an American shale oil industry that has become a critical pillar of U.S. economic growth and national security.
Explanations for Mohammed bin Salman’s head-snapping shift in strategy have varied. Was it a rash decision to punish Russian intransigence? Was it a short-term power play to coerce Moscow into negotiating? Or was there some longer-term method to the crown prince’s madness in the form of a strategy to radically transform oil markets, perhaps by driving higher-cost producers into insolvency?
Whatever the Saudi intent, the impact on U.S. interests is clear. Riyadh’s decision came precisely when the world economy was already verging on meltdown due to the accelerating coronavirus pandemic. The sudden crash in the price of the world’s most important commodity helped escalate the panic and volatility that sent financial markets plunging.
The price war, if sustained, is a near-certain death sentence for a majority of U.S. shale producers that were already struggling with high debt and the collapse in demand for jet fuel, gasoline, and ship bunkers amid worldwide lockdowns and travel bans. Whether laying waste to a strategic sector of the U.S. economy was a factor in Mohammed bin Salman’s decision, it will almost certainly be one of the results. Overnight, he put at risk tens of thousands of high-paying American jobs and struck a potentially mortal blow against a resurrected oil sector that has become a critical asset in Washington’s efforts to constrain oil-rich adversaries in such places as Iran and Venezuela. Once the shale industry is lost in an avalanche of defaults, bankruptcies, and abandoned wells, the risks are high that the costs of bringing the industry back in the foreseeable future could be prohibitive.
It’s important that the United States see the Saudi decision for the irresponsible and unfriendly act that it was. Trump’s initial reaction to the price plunge—focusing solely on the cost savings that U.S. consumers would get at the pumps—seemed particularly odd. In recent years, the price of gasoline has been a nonissue for most Americans—witness the booming sales of gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. Moreover, in the context of the pandemic, most people are stuck at home and unable to take advantage of lower gas prices. Diffuse benefits on the consumption side are far outweighed by the economic, financial, and national security threats posed by the potential decimation of the shale oil industry.
Key U.S. officials understood that point before Trump. On March 16, 13 senators wrote a letter to Mohammed bin Salman decrying the Saudi move and calling on the kingdom to restabilize energy markets. On March 25, eight senators accused Saudi Arabia of “economic warfare,” threatening to withdraw U.S. security support and impose tariffs and sanctions. For good measure, two senators introduced legislation on March 27 to remove U.S. troops from the country.In the Trump era, the Saudis have learned that if they are not hearing directly from the president or his son-in-law, they can ignore U.S. officials.
U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo called Mohammed bin Salman on March 24 to underscore “the need to maintain stability in global energy markets.” While more diplomatic than the senators, Pompeo’s basic message was the same: End the price war and work to stabilize prices.
Unfortunately, in the Trump era, the lesson that the Saudis have drawn is that if they are not hearing directly from the president or his senior aide and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, they can ignore the concerns expressed by other U.S. officials with impunity, whether the subject be the war in Yemen, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, or, now, the oil price war.
Belatedly, Trump seems to have gained an appreciation for the stake the United States has in oil prices that work not just for American consumers, but for producers as well. In a March 30 interview, Trump said that “I never thought I’d be saying that maybe we have to have an oil [price] increase, because we do. … We don’t want to have an industry that’s wiped out.” In a subsequent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders “agreed on the importance of stability in global energy markets,” Reuters reported.
If the Saudi-Russian production cut announced by Trump is not forthcoming, then he needs to deliver the message forcefully to Mohammed bin Salman and his father, King Salman. In the past, Trump hasn’t hesitated to lambaste the Saudis when he believed they were damaging the U.S. economy. In 2018, he said that he had told King Salman that “you might not be there for two weeks” without U.S. protection.
Trump should apply similar screws to ensure the Saudis stick to any deal to back away from the price war. Any threat of rupture with the kingdom’s most important ally would be deeply problematic for Saudi security as well as Mohammed bin Salman’s personal standing within the royal family. He can’t afford to risk losing Trump’s favor. He fears Trump’s wrath. The president should exploit that advantage.
An added sweetener that’s been hinted at by U.S. officials is the possibility of getting American oil producers to cooperate with OPEC on production limits. While this kind of cooperation would be nearly unthinkable in ordinary times due to U.S. antitrust concerns, antipathy toward OPEC, and the lack of centralized authority over oil companies, these are anything but ordinary times. The coronavirus crisis has dramatically expanded the spectrum of solutions that countries (and imperiled industries) are prepared to consider to weather the disaster now bearing down upon them.Whether the U.S. shale oil industry survives in its present form or not, the price war has already destroyed any notion of U.S. energy independence.
It may be ironic that the United States, after decades of criticizing the Saudis for keeping prices too high, is now attacking Riyadh for driving prices too low. But it’s worth recalling the fundamental bargain that rests at the core of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. In exchange for America’s underwriting its security, the kingdom pledged to provide access to its oil at reasonable prices. People may quibble over the meaning of “reasonable.” But in a world in which the U.S. military remains the one force standing between Saudi Arabia and a rapacious Iran, Washington is within its rights to inveigh against any Saudi oil strategy that undermines the foundations of U.S. economic power and national security—regardless of whether the Saudi strategy leads to prices that are too high or too low.
Whether the U.S. shale oil industry survives in its present form or not, what the current price war has already destroyed is any notion of U.S. energy independence. When a foreign country can push a critical segment of the economy to the brink of extinction with the flick of a switch, “independence” is not a word that applies.
Beyond any short-term fixes to the price war, the United States still needs a long-term strategy for achieving true energy security. Perhaps the most important step that could be taken is breaking oil’s near-monopoly in the transportation sector. More electric vehicles are one answer, as are those powered by ethanol made from natural gas. The latter would create a large new market for the U.S. energy industry, while reducing exposure to the damaging volatility of global oil markets that remain heavily influenced by foreign governments that rarely have U.S. interests at heart.
For now, however, all eyes are on Trump and Mohammed bin Salman. Trump must rescue U.S. shale oil from the Saudis—and make sure that any deal to cut back production and stabilize prices will truly stick.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-02--In Global Leadership Void on Pandemic, Critics Ask: Where’s Pompeo?

In Global Leadership Void on Pandemic , Critics Ask : Where ’ s Pompeo ?
As world leaders grapple with a pandemic that is forcing them to reshuffle their priorities , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has stuck largely to his pre-crisis script , doubling down on the administration ’ s hard-line Iran stance and unveiling a new effort to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power .
His continued focus on these issues leaves some experts and former diplomats worried that Pompeo , and by extension the Trump administration , is too narrowly fixated on a select few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a unified response to the coronavirus pandemic .
All the while , critics worry that China is happily stepping in to fill the void as it edges closer to global superpower status .
“ I ’ m hugely disappointed in the administration for its lack of international leadership , ” vented one senior State Department official , speaking on condition of anonymity .
“ It ’ s all been about the U.S. here , not really coordinating at all with allies.
” “ Why Pompeo is still back pushing a pre-coronavirus agenda when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretensions toward international leadership … is beyond me , ” said Daniel Fried , the former longest-serving U.S. diplomat at the State Department until his retirement in 2017 .
“ There ’ s a crying need for American leadership .
The world has almost given up waiting for us , but if we step into this space , it would be welcome.
” Foreign-policy critics point to missed opportunities for the United States to organize a global strategy to address the pandemic at the United Nations Security Council or recent meetings of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world economies that Pompeo participated in .
Michael Fuchs , a foreign-policy expert at the Center for American Progress , lays the blame squarely at the feet of Pompeo .
“ In a crisis of this magnitude , the secretary of state is going to be the international ringleader for organizing countries to fight the pandemic together as the president focuses on the domestic response , ” said Fuchs , a veteran State Department official under the Obama administration .
“ Unfortunately , Pompeo has been missing in action since day one on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spends a fair amount of time playing the blame game with China and a lot less time focused on the kind of international coordination that is going to be needed to lead to results on the ground , ” said Hardin Lang , the vice president for programs and policy at Refugees International .
Both the recent G-7 and G-20 meetings ended without new concrete steps to coordinate a global response to the coronavirus pandemic .
The G-7 reportedly couldn ’ t agree on a joint statement on the virus because Pompeo insisted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Wuhan virus ” —referring to the Chinese city where the virus originated—resulting in separate statements and frustration among European diplomats .
“ The signal you send when the G-20 or G-7 or U.N. [ Security Council ] comes together on a statement with everybody , despite all their differences , saying , ‘ We ’ re all in this together .
Here ’ s what we ’ re going to do ’ —we haven ’ t had that , ” the senior State Department official said .
“ That ’ s something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in a phone briefing with reporters on Monday , batted down those reports .
“ Unfortunately , that was some pretty bad reporting , ” he said .
“ The truth of the matter is we had an enormously successful G-7 gathering , where there was a collective belief that we had a responsibility as the G-7 to respond to this COVID-19 outbreak.
” Pompeo ’ s advocates say he is busy grappling with an unprecedented crisis behind the scenes—and others say talk of waning U.S. global leadership is greatly exaggerated .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the secretary of state had to be out there on the pandemic … in the public so much just to show he was relevant , ” said James Carafano of the Washington-based Heritage Foundation .
Pompeo is “ incredibly busy , even though [ he ’ s ] not in the limelight , ” he said .
“ He ’ s just focused on quietly doing his job.
” Pompeo remains one of President Donald Trump ’ s most influential cabinet members and closest confidants , senior officials and sources close to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his perch in Foggy Bottom , he has renewed the administration ’ s pre-pandemic agenda of cracking down on Iran and trying to oust Venezuela ’ s Maduro from power .
Even as a growing chorus of lawmakers call for a slowdown in issuing new sanctions—and temporary sanctions relief—for Tehran as it grapples with the pandemic , the administration hasn ’ t let up , announcing new sanctions designations and hammering the Iranian government for its pandemic response .
On Venezuela , Pompeo this week unveiled a new proposal to oust Maduro from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States and dozens of other countries ceased to recognize the leftist ruler ’ s government as legitimate .
With few exceptions , Pompeo has largely been invisible at the administration ’ s most important public events on the coronavirus , including the daily White House briefings led by Trump and Vice President Mike Pence .
Those briefings have focused primarily on the impact the virus is having on hot spots in New York City , Miami , and West Coast capitals but touched on the global impact of the pandemic .
Other key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Esper and Attorney General William Barr , have made regular appearances , and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has taken the lead in responding to the economic fallout .
In the past week , Pompeo has begun speaking out more frequently about how the State Department is responding to the global pandemic , including repatriating tens of thousands of American citizens stranded abroad .
But before that , even as the virus spread across Europe and the United States , most of his public posturing on the coronavirus centered on a tit-for-tat fight with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus .
In recent days , Pompeo has backed off the attack posture as Trump struck a softer tone on China , lauding Chinese President Xi Jinping and China ’ s coronavirus response .
Critics say that as the administration carries out its pre-crisis agenda , it is shirking its traditional duty of being a global first responder to a major crisis .
Even U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has lamented the fact that there ’ s no unified international response to the crisis—though he didn ’ t call out the United States by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a coordinated action of all countries to suppress the virus .
… There was a tendency for each one to go its own way .
We absolutely need an articulated action in which all countries join the same efforts in order to commonly suppress the transmission following the guidance of the World Health Organization .
“ This is , indeed , the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War and the one that needs a stronger and more effective response that is only possible in solidarity if everybody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ games and understand that it is humankind that is at stake , ” Guterres said .
In contrast with Pompeo , America ’ s past diplomats have played a critical role in rallying international support for responses to global health crises .
Richard Holbrooke , the late U.S. ambassador to the United Nations , organized the first U.N. Security Council meeting on a health crisis , the AIDS pandemic , and prodded the U.N. into handing out condoms to U.N. peacekeepers in an effort to stem the spread .
In 2014 , then-Secretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments into providing money , flatbed trucks , helicopters , and medical treatment facilities to address the Ebola virus outbreak .
“ If we don ’ t adequately address this current outbreak now , then Ebola has the potential to become a scourge like HIV or polio that we will end up fighting , all of us , for decades .
… Winning this fight is going to be costly , it is going to take all of our efforts , and it is not risk-free , ” Kerry said .
But Pompeo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the State Department that no prior secretary of state has ever had to face .
Amid his normal duties , Pompeo is also busy overseeing one of the most unprecedented and complex crises in the State Department ’ s history : bringing home tens of thousands of Americans stuck abroad at a time when foreign countries are issuing blanket travel bans and commercial airline traffic has virtually ground to a halt .
“ Never in the department ’ s 230-year history have we led a worldwide evacuation of such enormous geographic complexity and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher duty to the American people than to pull this off , ” Pompeo told reporters this week .
As of Wednesday , the State Department had repatriated over 30,000 U.S. citizens from over 60 countries on over 350 flights , according to Ian Brownlee , the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for consular affairs .
Even here , the State Department has faced criticism from both powerful lawmakers on Capitol Hill and Americans stranded abroad for responding too slowly to the crisis—though even Democratic lawmakers critical of the administration concede it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It comes as a small but growing number of State Department employees , based in the United States and abroad , have contracted the virus .
So far two locally employed embassy staff in Kinshasa , Democratic Republic of the Congo , and Jakarta , Indonesia , have died from the virus .
Many U.S. officials and experts have raised alarm bells in recent weeks about China ramping up its propaganda efforts to stave off criticism that it caused the pandemic by mishandling the virus when it first spread in Wuhan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and doctors to hard-hit countries including Iran and Italy , brandishing the efforts as signs that Beijing is leading the global response to the crisis .
However , some of the equipment it sent abroad has proved to be faulty , and it has falsely portrayed some of the supplies as donations when in fact foreign countries had to pay for the shipments .
U.S. officials insist that the United States remains the leader in global public health , pointing to its significant investments in the World Health Organization and other international institutions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States—and in particular the State Department—is scrambling to secure foreign medical supplies for the country ’ s own needs , including from countries that receive U.S. foreign aid , further undercutting the perception that Washington is leading the world out of the crisis .
On Wednesday , Russia scored a public relations victory by shipping a planeload of medical supplies to the United States , even as Pompeo and other senior U.S. officials condemned Russia for spreading dangerous disinformation on the coronavirus .
“ We are a generous and reliable contributor to crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but we can not do it alone , ” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement on accepting Russian medical supplies .
“ Both countries have provided humanitarian assistance to each other in times of crisis in the past and will no doubt do so again in the future .
This is a time to work together to overcome a common enemy that threatens the lives of all of us .
”

As world leaders grapple with a pandemic that is forcing them to reshuffle their priorities, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has stuck largely to his pre-crisis script, doubling down on the administration’s hard-line Iran stance and unveiling a new effort to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power.
As world leaders grapple with a pandemic that is forcing them to reshuffle their priorities, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has stuck largely to his pre-crisis script, doubling down on the administration’s hard-line Iran stance and unveiling a new effort to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power.
His continued focus on these issues leaves some experts and former diplomats worried that Pompeo, and by extension the Trump administration, is too narrowly fixated on a select few foreign-policy objectives—instead of rallying the world around a unified response to the coronavirus pandemic. All the while, critics worry that China is happily stepping in to fill the void as it edges closer to global superpower status.
“I’m hugely disappointed in the administration for its lack of international leadership,” vented one senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It’s all been about the U.S. here, not really coordinating at all with allies.”
“Why Pompeo is still back pushing a pre-coronavirus agenda when the Chinese are stepping up with ill-founded pretensions toward international leadership … is beyond me,” said Daniel Fried, the former longest-serving U.S. diplomat at the State Department until his retirement in 2017. “There’s a crying need for American leadership. The world has almost given up waiting for us, but if we step into this space, it would be welcome.”
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Foreign-policy critics point to missed opportunities for the United States to organize a global strategy to address the pandemic at the United Nations Security Council or recent meetings of the G-7 and G-20 international forums of top world economies that Pompeo participated in.
Michael Fuchs, a foreign-policy expert at the Center for American Progress, lays the blame squarely at the feet of Pompeo. “In a crisis of this magnitude, the secretary of state is going to be the international ringleader for organizing countries to fight the pandemic together as the president focuses on the domestic response,” said Fuchs, a veteran State Department official under the Obama administration. “Unfortunately, Pompeo has been missing in action since day one on this.”
“The secretary of state spends a fair amount of time playing the blame game with China and a lot less time focused on the kind of international coordination that is going to be needed to lead to results on the ground,” said Hardin Lang, the vice president for programs and policy at Refugees International.
Both the recent G-7 and G-20 meetings ended without new concrete steps to coordinate a global response to the coronavirus pandemic. The G-7 reportedly couldn’t agree on a joint statement on the virus because Pompeo insisted on referring to the coronavirus as the “Wuhan virus”—referring to the Chinese city where the virus originated—resulting in separate statements and frustration among European diplomats.
“The signal you send when the G-20 or G-7 or U.N. [Security Council] comes together on a statement with everybody, despite all their differences, saying, ‘We’re all in this together. Here’s what we’re going to do’—we haven’t had that,” the senior State Department official said. “That’s something that America should be doing.”
Pompeo, in a phone briefing with reporters on Monday, batted down those reports. “Unfortunately, that was some pretty bad reporting,” he said. “The truth of the matter is we had an enormously successful G-7 gathering, where there was a collective belief that we had a responsibility as the G-7 to respond to this COVID-19 outbreak.”
Pompeo’s advocates say he is busy grappling with an unprecedented crisis behind the scenes—and others say talk of waning U.S. global leadership is greatly exaggerated.
“It would seem unseemly to me if the secretary of state had to be out there on the pandemic … in the public so much just to show he was relevant,” said James Carafano of the Washington-based Heritage Foundation. Pompeo is “incredibly busy, even though [he’s] not in the limelight,” he said. “He’s just focused on quietly doing his job.”
Pompeo remains one of President Donald Trump’s most influential cabinet members and closest confidants, senior officials and sources close to the administration told Foreign Policy. From his perch in Foggy Bottom, he has renewed the administration’s pre-pandemic agenda of cracking down on Iran and trying to oust Venezuela’s Maduro from power. Even as a growing chorus of lawmakers call for a slowdown in issuing new sanctions—and temporary sanctions relief—for Tehran as it grapples with the pandemic, the administration hasn’t let up, announcing new sanctions designations and hammering the Iranian government for its pandemic response. On Venezuela, Pompeo this week unveiled a new proposal to oust Maduro from power, a year after the United States and dozens of other countries ceased to recognize the leftist ruler’s government as legitimate.
With few exceptions, Pompeo has largely been invisible at the administration’s most important public events on the coronavirus, including the daily White House briefings led by Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Those briefings have focused primarily on the impact the virus is having on hot spots in New York City, Miami, and West Coast capitals but touched on the global impact of the pandemic. Other key cabinet officials, including Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Attorney General William Barr, have made regular appearances, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has taken the lead in responding to the economic fallout.
In the past week, Pompeo has begun speaking out more frequently about how the State Department is responding to the global pandemic, including repatriating tens of thousands of American citizens stranded abroad. But before that, even as the virus spread across Europe and the United States, most of his public posturing on the coronavirus centered on a tit-for-tat fight with Chinese officials about what to call the virus. In recent days, Pompeo has backed off the attack posture as Trump struck a softer tone on China, lauding Chinese President Xi Jinping and China’s coronavirus response.
Critics say that as the administration carries out its pre-crisis agenda, it is shirking its traditional duty of being a global first responder to a major crisis.
Even U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has lamented the fact that there’s no unified international response to the crisis—though he didn’t call out the United States by name. “We still do not have a coordinated action of all countries to suppress the virus. … There was a tendency for each one to go its own way. We absolutely need an articulated action in which all countries join the same efforts in order to commonly suppress the transmission following the guidance of the World Health Organization.
“This is, indeed, the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War and the one that needs a stronger and more effective response that is only possible in solidarity if everybody comes together and if we forget political games and understand that it is humankind that is at stake,” Guterres said.
In contrast with Pompeo, America’s past diplomats have played a critical role in rallying international support for responses to global health crises. Richard Holbrooke, the late U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, organized the first U.N. Security Council meeting on a health crisis, the AIDS pandemic, and prodded the U.N. into handing out condoms to U.N. peacekeepers in an effort to stem the spread.
In 2014, then-Secretary of State John Kerry routinely browbeat foreign governments into providing money, flatbed trucks, helicopters, and medical treatment facilities to address the Ebola virus outbreak. “If we don’t adequately address this current outbreak now, then Ebola has the potential to become a scourge like HIV or polio that we will end up fighting, all of us, for decades. … Winning this fight is going to be costly, it is going to take all of our efforts, and it is not risk-free,” Kerry said.
But Pompeo has been thrust into a crisis for the State Department that no prior secretary of state has ever had to face. Amid his normal duties, Pompeo is also busy overseeing one of the most unprecedented and complex crises in the State Department’s history: bringing home tens of thousands of Americans stuck abroad at a time when foreign countries are issuing blanket travel bans and commercial airline traffic has virtually ground to a halt. “Never in the department’s 230-year history have we led a worldwide evacuation of such enormous geographic complexity and such geographic scale. We have no higher duty to the American people than to pull this off,” Pompeo told reporters this week.
As of Wednesday, the State Department had repatriated over 30,000 U.S. citizens from over 60 countries on over 350 flights, according to Ian Brownlee, the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for consular affairs.
Even here, the State Department has faced criticism from both powerful lawmakers on Capitol Hill and Americans stranded abroad for responding too slowly to the crisis—though even Democratic lawmakers critical of the administration concede it is an unprecedented challenge for the department. It comes as a small but growing number of State Department employees, based in the United States and abroad, have contracted the virus. So far two locally employed embassy staff in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Jakarta, Indonesia, have died from the virus.
Many U.S. officials and experts have raised alarm bells in recent weeks about China ramping up its propaganda efforts to stave off criticism that it caused the pandemic by mishandling the virus when it first spread in Wuhan. China has sent shipments of medical supplies and doctors to hard-hit countries including Iran and Italy, brandishing the efforts as signs that Beijing is leading the global response to the crisis. However, some of the equipment it sent abroad has proved to be faulty, and it has falsely portrayed some of the supplies as donations when in fact foreign countries had to pay for the shipments.
U.S. officials insist that the United States remains the leader in global public health, pointing to its significant investments in the World Health Organization and other international institutions.
But it comes as the United States—and in particular the State Department—is scrambling to secure foreign medical supplies for the country’s own needs, including from countries that receive U.S. foreign aid, further undercutting the perception that Washington is leading the world out of the crisis.
On Wednesday, Russia scored a public relations victory by shipping a planeload of medical supplies to the United States, even as Pompeo and other senior U.S. officials condemned Russia for spreading dangerous disinformation on the coronavirus.
“We are a generous and reliable contributor to crisis response and humanitarian action across the world, but we cannot do it alone,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement on accepting Russian medical supplies. “Both countries have provided humanitarian assistance to each other in times of crisis in the past and will no doubt do so again in the future. This is a time to work together to overcome a common enemy that threatens the lives of all of us.”


foreignpolicy--2020-04-02--Pentagon Removes Carrier From Middle East Amid Pandemic-Induced Resource Fight

The Defense Department is removing an aircraft carrier from the Middle East , a U.S. official confirmed to Foreign Policy , in a move that could trigger a fight for assets within the Pentagon with the coronavirus outbreak sidelining the infected carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Pacific .
Although it was not immediately where the carrier , the USS Harry Truman , would redeploy , one former U.S. defense official said the U.S. Pacific Fleet is likely to ask for the ship , which previously had been expected to stay in the Persian Gulf on a deterrence mission against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on its scheduled rotation , contrary to an earlier plan to leave the nuclear-powered carrier in the region that had been announced by Gen. Kenneth McKenzie , the top U.S. military officer in the Middle East , on March 13 .
Politico first reported the news of the move .
Gen. Mark Milley , the U.S. military ’ s top officer , would have the final say on any decision to pivot assets to compensate for the Roosevelt , which will offload more than half of its 4,800 crew in Guam after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no more than 10 percent of sailors to stay on board .
A Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesperson said they could not comment on future operations or locations for aircraft carriers .
“ The Pacific Fleet remains ready to meet all operational commitments , ” said Lt. j.g .
Rachel McMarr , a spokesperson for the command .
While top officials insisted Wednesday that the remaining crew aboard the ship would be able to respond to a crisis , the Navy ’ s decision to offload most of the USS Roosevelt has created @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the USS Ronald Reagan is also docked and undergoing maintenance .
The coronavirus has spread to at least 93 sailors aboard the Roosevelt , senior Navy officials said Wednesday .
The Pentagon has not confirmed the initial source of the outbreak , though the ship made a port visit to Vietnam in early March as the novel coronavirus spread across Asia .
The USS Truman began moving just hours before the Navy handed down disciplinary action over the leaked letter about the dire situation aboard the USS Roosevelt .
In a snap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary Thomas Modly announced that he had fired the commander of the USS Roosevelt , Capt .
Brett Crozier , after the service ’ s brass insisted earlier in the week they would not “ shoot the messenger ” whose plea to allow most of his 4,800 crew off the aircraft carrier leaked in the San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday .
Modly ’ s official justification for firing Crozier was a loss of confidence for the letter leaking publicly , though his argument for the termination centered on the number of people the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help .
“ It was copied to 20 or 30 other people , ” Modly said , adding that Crozier ’ s claims that as many as 50 of his crew could die “ raised alarm bells unnecessarily.
” The Navy expects the number of cases on the coronavirus-striken carrier to end up in the hundreds .
Former officials said there is likely to be a tit-for-tat among the military ’ s combatant commands over resources as the Joint Staff weighs the operational challenges in the Asia-Pacific region that have worsened over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t going to be the only American tip of the spear that ’ s going to be impacted , ” said Kori Schake , the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute , a Washington think tank .
The previously announced extended deployment of the USS Truman had marked the first time in recent years that the Navy had kept two carriers in the Middle East .
“ Now that we have the USS Theodore Roosevelt effectively out of operation , the new chairman [ Gen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to look at shifting another aircraft carrier from other combatant commands to make up for that deficiency , ” said Mick Mulroy , the Pentagon ’ s top Middle East official until November 2019 .
“ They may look to Centcom for this national asset , but they will have to consider the recent concerns of Iran taking assets against US assets and interests , ” said Mulroy , who now heads the Lobo Institute , a consultancy focused on conflict resolution .
The former U.S. defense official who spoke to Foreign Policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Pacific would help reinforce the Trump administration ’ s Asia-focused strategy and offset a potential Chinese surge at a time when the Pentagon has beefed up its presence in the Middle East and South America .
Even amid Defense Secretary Mark Esper ’ s review of the military ’ s geographic combatant commands that seeks to move troops and weapons to Asia , McKenzie , the Central Command chief , said in March that the Pentagon chief had signed off on a decision to allow two carriers to stay in the region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep two carriers—which follows Centcom ’ s yearlong husbanding of U.S. troops and weapons into the Middle East to deal with the threat posed by Iran , including Patriot missile defense batteries—would give him more flexibility to deal with Tehran ’ s irregular attacks .
“ The beauty of the aircraft carrier is this : It has enormous offensive capability .
It has enormous defensive capability , it has mobility .
We can move it around , ” McKenzie told reporters in the Pentagon briefing room last month after the United States retaliated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a deadly rocket attack at Iraq ’ s Camp Taji .
“ It ’ s a floating piece of American sovereignty.
” The possibility of a carrier shift to Asia in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak on the Roosevelt did not come up at Centcom , a U.S. official told Foreign Policy .
But after the Roosevelt docked , “ the writing was on the wall ” that the Truman ’ s extended deployment to the Middle East might not last .
Indeed , the decision generated concern in defense circles and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be vulnerable to Iranian attack in the narrow waterway and that the Trump administration has been further distracted away from the potential threat posed by China , the former defense official who spoke to Foreign Policy added .
Adm. Phil Davidson , the U.S. military ’ s top officer in Asia , has consistently trumpeted that his area is the Pentagon ’ s priority in public speeches .
The spread of the coronavirus across the U.S. military , which has seen the number of cases triple in the past week according to Pentagon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deadline pressure on the Trump administration ’ s plan to shift focus toward a possible fight with China as President Donald Trump faces reelection in November .
“ I think it is too early to tell what the impact of the virus would be on the implementation of the [ National Defense Strategy ] , except to say that it will not happen on the timelines that previously existed , ” Bryan McGrath , a managing director at the FerryBridge Group , told Foreign Policy in an email .
“ I expect there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budget as either the pandemic continues or in its aftermath as we look to rebuild.
” The Pentagon could also seek to alleviate the strain on U.S. forces in the Pacific by bringing in smaller vessels , former military officials said , as the U.S. Navy has turned toward smaller and unmanned surface vessels to fulfill its legally mandated 355-ship goal .
“ We have plenty of capacity , ” said retired Vice Adm. John Miller , the U.S. Navy ’ s former top commander in the Middle East .
“ I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of having an aircraft carrier come offline .
There are other types of ships , there are other forces that you can use to fill in by the loss of the carrier.
” There still could be other opportunities to pivot U.S. troops to Asia before the end of the year other than a carrier , even as the Pentagon has frozen most travel and slowed the pace of deployments , according to a statement released in late March .
The United States has begun to thin out its presence at outlying bases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the Pentagon lacks sufficient missile defense coverage to protect troops from hit-and-run attacks by Iranian proxies .
April 2 : This story was updated with news of the firing of the commander of the USS Roosevelt .

The Defense Department is removing an aircraft carrier from the Middle East, a U.S. official confirmed to Foreign Policy , in a move that could trigger a fight for assets within the Pentagon with the coronavirus outbreak sidelining the infected carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Pacific.
The Defense Department is removing an aircraft carrier from the Middle East, a U.S. official confirmed to Foreign Policy, in a move that could trigger a fight for assets within the Pentagon with the coronavirus outbreak sidelining the infected carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Pacific.
Although it was not immediately where the carrier, the USS Harry Truman, would redeploy, one former U.S. defense official said the U.S. Pacific Fleet is likely to ask for the ship, which previously had been expected to stay in the Persian Gulf on a deterrence mission against Iran.
The ship will now leave on its scheduled rotation, contrary to an earlier plan to leave the nuclear-powered carrier in the region that had been announced by Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the top U.S. military officer in the Middle East, on March 13. Politico first reported the news of the move.
Gen. Mark Milley, the U.S. military’s top officer, would have the final say on any decision to pivot assets to compensate for the Roosevelt, which will offload more than half of its 4,800 crew in Guam after the ship’s commanding officer pleaded for no more than 10 percent of sailors to stay on board. A Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesperson said they could not comment on future operations or locations for aircraft carriers. “The Pacific Fleet remains ready to meet all operational commitments,” said Lt. j.g. Rachel McMarr, a spokesperson for the command.
While top officials insisted Wednesday that the remaining crew aboard the ship would be able to respond to a crisis, the Navy’s decision to offload most of the USS Roosevelt has created a strain on the carrier fleet, as the USS Ronald Reagan is also docked and undergoing maintenance. The coronavirus has spread to at least 93 sailors aboard the Roosevelt, senior Navy officials said Wednesday. The Pentagon has not confirmed the initial source of the outbreak, though the ship made a port visit to Vietnam in early March as the novel coronavirus spread across Asia.
The USS Truman began moving just hours before the Navy handed down disciplinary action over the leaked letter about the dire situation aboard the USS Roosevelt. In a snap press conference on Thursday, Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly announced that he had fired the commander of the USS Roosevelt, Capt. Brett Crozier, after the service’s brass insisted earlier in the week they would not “shoot the messenger” whose plea to allow most of his 4,800 crew off the aircraft carrier leaked in the San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday.
Modly’s official justification for firing Crozier was a loss of confidence for the letter leaking publicly, though his argument for the termination centered on the number of people the officer copied in his e-mailed plea for help. “It was copied to 20 or 30 other people,” Modly said, adding that Crozier’s claims that as many as 50 of his crew could die “raised alarm bells unnecessarily.” The Navy expects the number of cases on the coronavirus-striken carrier to end up in the hundreds.
Former officials said there is likely to be a tit-for-tat among the military’s combatant commands over resources as the Joint Staff weighs the operational challenges in the Asia-Pacific region that have worsened over the coronavirus spread. “The Teddy Roosevelt isn’t going to be the only American tip of the spear that’s going to be impacted,” said Kori Schake, the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
The previously announced extended deployment of the USS Truman had marked the first time in recent years that the Navy had kept two carriers in the Middle East.
“Now that we have the USS Theodore Roosevelt effectively out of operation, the new chairman [Gen. Milley] and his staff will have to look at shifting another aircraft carrier from other combatant commands to make up for that deficiency,” said Mick Mulroy, the Pentagon’s top Middle East official until November 2019. “They may look to Centcom for this national asset, but they will have to consider the recent concerns of Iran taking actions against US assets and interests,” said Mulroy, who now heads the Lobo Institute, a consultancy focused on conflict resolution.
The former U.S. defense official who spoke to Foreign Policy said a carrier or additional assets to the Pacific would help reinforce the Trump administration’s Asia-focused strategy and offset a potential Chinese surge at a time when the Pentagon has beefed up its presence in the Middle East and South America.
Even amid Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s review of the military’s geographic combatant commands that seeks to move troops and weapons to Asia, McKenzie, the Central Command chief, said in March that the Pentagon chief had signed off on a decision to allow two carriers to stay in the region.
McKenzie insisted that the move to keep two carriers—which follows Centcom’s yearlong husbanding of U.S. troops and weapons into the Middle East to deal with the threat posed by Iran, including Patriot missile defense batteries—would give him more flexibility to deal with Tehran’s irregular attacks.
“The beauty of the aircraft carrier is this: It has enormous offensive capability. It has enormous defensive capability, it has mobility. We can move it around,” McKenzie told reporters in the Pentagon briefing room last month after the United States retaliated against the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia for a deadly rocket attack at Iraq’s Camp Taji. “It’s a floating piece of American sovereignty.”
The possibility of a carrier shift to Asia in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak on the Roosevelt did not come up at Centcom, a U.S. official told Foreign Policy. But after the Roosevelt docked, “the writing was on the wall” that the Truman’s extended deployment to the Middle East might not last.
Indeed, the decision generated concern in defense circles and on Capitol Hill that the carriers might be vulnerable to Iranian attack in the narrow waterway and that the Trump administration has been further distracted away from the potential threat posed by China, the former defense official who spoke to Foreign Policy added. Adm. Phil Davidson, the U.S. military’s top officer in Asia, has consistently trumpeted that his area is the Pentagon’s priority in public speeches.
The spread of the coronavirus across the U.S. military, which has seen the number of cases triple in the past week according to Pentagon figures, is likely to compound the deadline pressure on the Trump administration’s plan to shift focus toward a possible fight with China as President Donald Trump faces reelection in November.
“I think it is too early to tell what the impact of the virus would be on the implementation of the [National Defense Strategy], except to say that it will not happen on the timelines that previously existed,” Bryan McGrath, a managing director at the FerryBridge Group, told Foreign Policy in an email. “I expect there to be considerable pressure on the DoD budget as either the pandemic continues or in its aftermath as we look to rebuild.”
The Pentagon could also seek to alleviate the strain on U.S. forces in the Pacific by bringing in smaller vessels, former military officials said, as the U.S. Navy has turned toward smaller and unmanned surface vessels to fulfill its legally mandated 355-ship goal.
“We have plenty of capacity,” said retired Vice Adm. John Miller, the U.S. Navy’s former top commander in the Middle East. “I don’t want to diminish the impact of having an aircraft carrier come offline. There are other types of ships, there are other forces that you can use to fill in by the loss of the carrier.”
There still could be other opportunities to pivot U.S. troops to Asia before the end of the year other than a carrier, even as the Pentagon has frozen most travel and slowed the pace of deployments, according to a statement released in late March. The United States has begun to thin out its presence at outlying bases in Iraq, eliminating three bases, as the Pentagon lacks sufficient missile defense coverage to protect troops from hit-and-run attacks by Iranian proxies.
April 2: This story was updated with news of the firing of the commander of the USS Roosevelt.