foreignpolicy--2020-07-15--Turkey’s Generation Z Turns Against Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ’ s online address to students on June 26 was the latest sign that his efforts to shape Turkey ’ s young generation in his image have failed .
Thousands of students joining the YouTube livestream disliked the video and used the comments section to criticize Erdogan and tell him that he wouldn ’ t get their vote .
They were justifiably frustrated that the government had shifted the date of this year ’ s university entrance exam back and forth several times over the past few months , a result of poor pandemic-related planning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the students ’ frustration turned into general anger at Erdogan .
The video has received 422,000 dislikes and the hashtag # OyMoyYok—no votes for you—became a trending topic on Turkish Twitter .
Not only did Erdogan ’ s office disable the video ’ s comments , but shortly afterward , Erdogan announced plans for new regulations to control social-media platforms or shut them down entirely.The students were frustrated at the government ’ s handling of this year ’ s university entrance exam—but in the days that followed , their frustration turned into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generation of Turkish youth has now grown up under Erdogan—first as prime minister , then as president .
With half of the country ’ s population below the age of 32 , what young people think has significant political ramifications .
No one seems to know this better than Erdogan : Beginning in 2012 , he embarked on a project to raise “ pious generations.
” His main tool to accomplish this has been the country ’ s education system , including by pouring billions of dollars into religious education .
He dramatically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ schools , which were originally founded by the state as vocational institutions to train young men to become imams and preachers , and extended this system to lower age groups .
At regular public schools , he increased the number of hours dedicated to religious education and banned the teaching of evolution from the curriculum .
But religious schools are underperforming and have little appeal among Turkish youth .
A recent poll found that religiosity is much lower in the younger generation , with far fewer describing themselves as “ religiously conservative ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers of young people—even students at imam hatip schools—are rejecting Islam altogether .
A 2018 workshop organized by the Ministry of National Education in the traditionally conservative Anatolian town of Konya found that students in imam hatip schools are questioning or abandoning Islam in growing numbers .
Many now consider themselves deists—people who believe in a divine being but don ’ t adhere to the tenets of Islam .
Pro-Erdogan media portray deism as just another Western conspiracy , but for young people , disillusionment with religion and the government goes hand in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say , Islam has been stripped of its moral core and instrumentalized to cover up corruption and legitimize his one-man rule .
This pushes young people to search for other sources of moral authority .
Young people ’ s rejection of Erdogan ’ s brand of Islamic conservatism also has to do with the poor quality of education as religion displaces standard subjects .
Even conservative parents worry that the heavy dose of religious instruction in secondary schools prevents their children from learning enough math , science , and technology to successfully compete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Erdogan ’ s brand of Islamic conservatism also has to do with the poor quality of education as religion displaces standard subjects .
Growing concern about the quality of education is about more than religion , however .
It also has to do with Erdogan ’ s increasing interference in the university system .
Following the introduction of the presidential system in 2018 , Erdogan now has the sole authority to appoint the heads of all public and private universities .
Many of these have been political loyalists with poor academic qualifications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the top worries among young Turks , many of whom believe that they can only get a good education in a Western country .
Even as the share of high school graduates going on to higher education has increased , young people doubt that their degree will land them a decent job .
( Youth unemployment hit a record 27 percent last year . )
Compounding their worries is the spread of nepotism under Erdogan .
A large majority of Turks now believe that it isn ’ t what you know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you a job .
Even those who support Erdogan complain about the lack of merit-based hiring in both the public and private sectors .
Feeding the youth revolt against Erdogan is the worry about increasing authoritarianism and the curtailment of freedoms .
According to a 2018 poll , a large majority values freedom of expression , and young Turks are more tolerant toward different ethnic and religious groups and toward homosexuality than a similar age group polled 10 years previously .
The number of respondents who said political parties can be banned if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past few years .
An overwhelming majority of the new generation that has grown up under Erdogan wants to move abroad in search of freedom and opportunity .
If Erdogan has largely failed to mold the new generation to support him , his efforts were not wasted entirely .
Since 2015 , he has built his electoral strategy on an anti-Kurdish platform , undoing his previous efforts at reconciliation with Turkey ’ s largest ethnic and linguistic minority .
Erdogan has criminalized the Kurdish opposition , thrown the democratically elected members of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and replaced the party ’ s mayors with Erdogan-appointed trustees .
At the same time , he has promoted an increasingly anti-Western Turkish nationalism that seeks to expand Turkish power in the region .
Nationalist and anti-Kurdish sentiment has found strong support among both secular and conservative youth , making them less tolerant toward the Kurds ’ demands for equality .
Kurdish youth holds similarly skeptical attitudes vis-à-vis ethnic Turks .
Kurds say they avoid talking about politics with their Turkish friends , and the number of intermarriages has declined.They have watched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an exhausted autocrat struggling to govern .
Erdogan ’ s nationalism has also turned to “ civilization ” rhetoric , particularly since 2012 .
The country ’ s Muslim roots and imperial Ottoman past are often glorified .
These efforts seem to have paid off : Many young people now identify themselves as part of the Middle East , unlike previous generations under more secular , Western-oriented governments .
But their hopes and aspirations tell a different story .
They want to get a secular education and live in a modern , free @ @ @ @ @ @ @ living in Europe over the Middle East .
More than 70 percent of young people said they would prefer to live in Switzerland than Saudi Arabia , even if it meant making do with a monthly salary of $ 5,000 instead of $ 10,000 .
Turkey ’ s youths have known nothing but Erdogan ’ s leadership .
They have watched him morph from a dynamic leader building a more democratic , prosperous , and Western-oriented Turkey to an exhausted autocrat struggling to govern .
Changing the date of the university entrance exam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young person ’ s life depends , was just the latest indication that Erdogan was failing them .
As they now say “ no votes for you , ” Erdogan has not only failed to raise a generation of supporters , but may have raised the generation that will finally defeat him .

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s online address to students on June 26 was the latest sign that his efforts to shape Turkey’s young generation in his image have failed. Thousands of students joining the YouTube livestream disliked the video and used the comments section to criticize Erdogan and tell him that he wouldn’t get their vote. They were justifiably frustrated that the government had shifted the date of this year’s university entrance exam back and forth several times over the past few months, a result of poor pandemic-related planning. But in the days that followed, the students’ frustration turned into general anger at Erdogan. The video has received 422,000 dislikes and the hashtag #OyMoyYok —no votes for you—became a trending topic on Turkish Twitter. Not only did Erdogan’s office disable the video’s comments, but shortly afterward, Erdogan announced plans for new regulations to control social-media platforms or shut them down entirely.The students were frustrated at the government’s handling of this year’s university entrance exam—but in the days that followed, their frustration turned into general anger at Erdogan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s online address to students on June 26 was the latest sign that his efforts to shape Turkey’s young generation in his image have failed. Thousands of students joining the YouTube livestream disliked the video and used the comments section to criticize Erdogan and tell him that he wouldn’t get their vote. They were justifiably frustrated that the government had shifted the date of this year’s university entrance exam back and forth several times over the past few months, a result of poor pandemic-related planning. But in the days that followed, the students’ frustration turned into general anger at Erdogan. The video has received 422,000 dislikes and the hashtag #OyMoyYok—no votes for you—became a trending topic on Turkish Twitter. Not only did Erdogan’s office disable the video’s comments, but shortly afterward, Erdogan announced plans for new regulations to control social-media platforms or shut them down entirely.The students were frustrated at the government’s handling of this year’s university entrance exam—but in the days that followed, their frustration turned into general anger at Erdogan.
A whole generation of Turkish youth has now grown up under Erdogan—first as prime minister, then as president. With half of the country’s population below the age of 32, what young people think has significant political ramifications. No one seems to know this better than Erdogan: Beginning in 2012, he embarked on a project to raise “pious generations.” His main tool to accomplish this has been the country’s education system, including by pouring billions of dollars into religious education. He dramatically increased the number of imam hatip secondary schools, which were originally founded by the state as vocational institutions to train young men to become imams and preachers, and extended this system to lower age groups. At regular public schools, he increased the number of hours dedicated to religious education and banned the teaching of evolution from the curriculum.
But religious schools are underperforming and have little appeal among Turkish youth. A recent poll found that religiosity is much lower in the younger generation, with far fewer describing themselves as “religiously conservative” than society as a whole. Growing numbers of young people—even students at imam hatip schools—are rejecting Islam altogether. A 2018 workshop organized by the Ministry of National Education in the traditionally conservative Anatolian town of Konya found that students in imam hatip schools are questioning or abandoning Islam in growing numbers. Many now consider themselves deists—people who believe in a divine being but don’t adhere to the tenets of Islam. Pro-Erdogan media portray deism as just another Western conspiracy, but for young people, disillusionment with religion and the government goes hand in hand. Under Erdogan, his critics say, Islam has been stripped of its moral core and instrumentalized to cover up corruption and legitimize his one-man rule. This pushes young people to search for other sources of moral authority.
Young people’s rejection of Erdogan’s brand of Islamic conservatism also has to do with the poor quality of education as religion displaces standard subjects. Even conservative parents worry that the heavy dose of religious instruction in secondary schools prevents their children from learning enough math, science, and technology to successfully compete in university exams.Young people’s rejection of Erdogan’s brand of Islamic conservatism also has to do with the poor quality of education as religion displaces standard subjects.
Growing concern about the quality of education is about more than religion, however. It also has to do with Erdogan’s increasing interference in the university system. Following the introduction of the presidential system in 2018, Erdogan now has the sole authority to appoint the heads of all public and private universities. Many of these have been political loyalists with poor academic qualifications.
The quality of education has become one of the top worries among young Turks, many of whom believe that they can only get a good education in a Western country. Even as the share of high school graduates going on to higher education has increased, young people doubt that their degree will land them a decent job. (Youth unemployment hit a record 27 percent last year.) Compounding their worries is the spread of nepotism under Erdogan. A large majority of Turks now believe that it isn’t what you know but who you know that will land you a job. Even those who support Erdogan complain about the lack of merit-based hiring in both the public and private sectors.
Feeding the youth revolt against Erdogan is the worry about increasing authoritarianism and the curtailment of freedoms. According to a 2018 poll, a large majority values freedom of expression, and young Turks are more tolerant toward different ethnic and religious groups and toward homosexuality than a similar age group polled 10 years previously. The number of respondents who said political parties can be banned if necessary has also declined significantly in the past few years. An overwhelming majority of the new generation that has grown up under Erdogan wants to move abroad in search of freedom and opportunity.
If Erdogan has largely failed to mold the new generation to support him, his efforts were not wasted entirely. Since 2015, he has built his electoral strategy on an anti-Kurdish platform, undoing his previous efforts at reconciliation with Turkey’s largest ethnic and linguistic minority. Erdogan has criminalized the Kurdish opposition, thrown the democratically elected members of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party in jail, and replaced the party’s mayors with Erdogan-appointed trustees. At the same time, he has promoted an increasingly anti-Western Turkish nationalism that seeks to expand Turkish power in the region. Nationalist and anti-Kurdish sentiment has found strong support among both secular and conservative youth, making them less tolerant toward the Kurds’ demands for equality. Kurdish youth holds similarly skeptical attitudes vis-à-vis ethnic Turks. Kurds say they avoid talking about politics with their Turkish friends, and the number of intermarriages has declined.They have watched him morph from a dynamic leader to an exhausted autocrat struggling to govern.
Erdogan’s nationalism has also turned to “civilization” rhetoric, particularly since 2012. The country’s Muslim roots and imperial Ottoman past are often glorified. These efforts seem to have paid off: Many young people now identify themselves as part of the Middle East, unlike previous generations under more secular, Western-oriented governments. But their hopes and aspirations tell a different story. They want to get a secular education and live in a modern, free, and democratic country. They prefer living in Europe over the Middle East. More than 70 percent of young people said they would prefer to live in Switzerland than Saudi Arabia, even if it meant making do with a monthly salary of $5,000 instead of $10,000.
Turkey’s youths have known nothing but Erdogan’s leadership. They have watched him morph from a dynamic leader building a more democratic, prosperous, and Western-oriented Turkey to an exhausted autocrat struggling to govern. Changing the date of the university entrance exam, on which so much in a young person’s life depends, was just the latest indication that Erdogan was failing them. As they now say “no votes for you,” Erdogan has not only failed to raise a generation of supporters, but may have raised the generation that will finally defeat him.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-15--ICE Drops Student Visa Threat, but Foreign Students Still Face Hurdles

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The United States drops student visa curbs , U.S. President Donald Trump signs Hong Kong sanctions into law , and North Macedonia goes to the polls .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The Trump administration has climbed down from a position that would have left thousands of foreign students in the United States with little choice but to leave the country .
On Tuesday , a court case brought by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( MIT ) against the Department of Homeland Security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) was scuttled at the last moment when the presiding judge announced that ICE would reverse its decision .
Last week , ICE announced that it was reinstating rules forcing students to take in-person classes at colleges and universities or risk losing their visas .
The move was immediately challenged by a number of states and higher-education institutions , leading to Tuesday ’ s dramatic reversal .
It ’ s not clear whether ICE will propose a new rule following Tuesday ’ s climbdown but Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey signaled that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this issue .
“ They may try this again .
We will be ready , ” she wrote on Twitter .
The decision will likely be a relief for some of the students Foreign Policy ’ s Amy Mackinnon and Augusta Saraiva talked to on July 10 ; some had even expressed doubts that the internet in their home countries would be able to cope with the switch to online classes .
A tale of decline .
While the weaknesses of the U.S. health care and social welfare systems have been brutally exposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain a durable monument to U.S. soft power : 27 of the QS Top 100 universities are in the United States—the most of any country—and just over one million foreign students study in the country each year .
However , foreign student enrollment at U.S. colleges and universities has been declining since 2016 , according to the Institute for International Education ( IIE ) .
Foreign enrollments saw a 6.6 percent drop in 2017 , the year Donald Trump became U.S. president .
Visa obstacles .
U.S. colleges and universities overwhelmingly report difficulty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ barrier to foreign student enrollment .
In 2019 , 86.9 percent of higher learning institutions cited visa difficulties as the top factor in missing out on foreign students , a jump from 68.4 percent in 2017 .
Meanwhile , north of the border .
On Tuesday , Canada announced plans to make it easier for foreign students to enroll in Canadian universities and will allow time spent studying online to count toward requirements for graduate work permits .
Overall , Canada is seeing an increase in foreign student enrollment : The number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Canada has increased 11 percent from last year .
Trump signs Hong Kong sanctions law .
On Tuesday , U.S. President Donald Trump continued a week of moves against China by signing a new law that imposes sanctions on Chinese banks doing business with Chinese officials involved with new national security laws in Hong Kong .
The president also signed an executive order , largely mirroring existing policy , that revokes the special treatment Hong Kong had received from the United States under the “ One Country , Two Systems ” doctrine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” in South China Sea dispute .
David Stilwell , the assistant secretary of state for East Asia , has said that the United States could impose sanctions on China as part of its new stance on Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea .
When asked about the possibility of sanctions , Stilwell replied : “ Nothing is off the table … there is room for that .
This is a language the Chinese understand—demonstrative and tangible action.
” And if you ’ re are still wondering what Monday ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China Sea claims as “ unlawful ” means for U.S. policy , read this short explainer .
North Macedonia holds general election .
North Macedonians go to the polls today in their first vote since the country changed its name from Macedonia two years ago .
Opinion polls show the country ’ s two main parties—the Social Democrats ( SDSM ) and the conservative VMRO-DPMNE—in a tight race , making it likely that neither wins an outright majority in the 120-seat parliament .
An interim government has ruled North Macedonia since January after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zaev .
Tensions flare in Nagorno-Karabakh .
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces both suffered casualties in ongoing skirmishes over disputed territory in the Nagorno-Karabakh region .
Fighting has been sporadic since war broke out in the 1990s , and flared up again on Sunday .
Armenia reported four soldiers killed on Tuesday , with Azerbaijan reporting seven soldiers killed along with one civilian .
Russia has offered to act as a mediator in the dispute , while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to protect Azerbaijan , which has ethnic ties with Turkey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anticipated .
A new study , published in the medical journal the Lancet , has challenged United Nations estimates of when peak human population will occur .
The Lancet study asserts that global population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 , and decline to 8.8 billion in 2100 .
U.N. estimates had previously put peak population at 10.9 billion around the year 2100 .
The study also warns that China ’ s aging population could become burdensome in the latter stages of the 21st century , allowing the United States to reassert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy—but only if it retains its status as an immigration magnet .
Coronavirus vaccine heads to large-scale U.S. trial .
An experimental coronavirus vaccine developed by the U.S. National Institutes of Health and Moderna Inc. is headed for a 30,000 person human trial—the largest of any potential vaccine so far—following promising results in initial trials .
In smaller scale human trials , the vaccine was found to create a similar level of antibodies as those found in recovered coronavirus patients .
Anthony Fauci , the top U.S. infectious disease specialist , told the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you slice this , this is good news.
” Saudi Arabia ’ s ongoing feud with Qatar has reached the sporting world after the kingdom officially banned the Doha-based sports broadcaster BeIN from operating within its borders .
The move means that Saudis now have no legal way of watching sporting events like the popular English Premier League as BeIN has exclusive rights in the region ( there are also fewer illegal options too , after Saudi Arabia cracked down on Saudi-based pirate broadcaster beoutQ ) .
The decision comes as a consortium @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Investment Fund is poised to purchase Newcastle United for roughly $ 377 million .
If the sale goes through and the BeIN ban stays in place , Saudis will have to seek out more underhanded methods to watch their new team .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States drops student visa curbs, U.S. President Donald Trump signs Hong Kong sanctions into law, and North Macedonia goes to the polls.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States drops student visa curbs, U.S. President Donald Trump signs Hong Kong sanctions into law, and North Macedonia goes to the polls.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
ICE Reverses Student Visa Decision
The Trump administration has climbed down from a position that would have left thousands of foreign students in the United States with little choice but to leave the country. On Tuesday, a court case brought by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) against the Department of Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was scuttled at the last moment when the presiding judge announced that ICE would reverse its decision.
Last week, ICE announced that it was reinstating rules forcing students to take in-person classes at colleges and universities or risk losing their visas. The move was immediately challenged by a number of states and higher-education institutions, leading to Tuesday’s dramatic reversal.
It’s not clear whether ICE will propose a new rule following Tuesday’s climbdown but Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey signaled that the case may not be the last on this issue. “They may try this again. We will be ready,” she wrote on Twitter.
The decision will likely be a relief for some of the students Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon and Augusta Saraiva talked to on July 10; some had even expressed doubts that the internet in their home countries would be able to cope with the switch to online classes.
A tale of decline. While the weaknesses of the U.S. health care and social welfare systems have been brutally exposed by the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. universities remain a durable monument to U.S. soft power: 27 of the QS Top 100 universities are in the United States—the most of any country—and just over one million foreign students study in the country each year. However, foreign student enrollment at U.S. colleges and universities has been declining since 2016, according to the Institute for International Education (IIE). Foreign enrollments saw a 6.6 percent drop in 2017, the year Donald Trump became U.S. president.
Visa obstacles. U.S. colleges and universities overwhelmingly report difficulty in obtaining visas as the number one barrier to foreign student enrollment. In 2019, 86.9 percent of higher learning institutions cited visa difficulties as the top factor in missing out on foreign students, a jump from 68.4 percent in 2017.
Meanwhile, north of the border. On Tuesday, Canada announced plans to make it easier for foreign students to enroll in Canadian universities and will allow time spent studying online to count toward requirements for graduate work permits. Overall, Canada is seeing an increase in foreign student enrollment: The number of permits granted to foreign students to study in Canada has increased 11 percent from last year.
What We’re Following Today
Trump signs Hong Kong sanctions law. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump continued a week of moves against China by signing a new law that imposes sanctions on Chinese banks doing business with Chinese officials involved with new national security laws in Hong Kong. The president also signed an executive order, largely mirroring existing policy, that revokes the special treatment Hong Kong had received from the United States under the “One Country, Two Systems” doctrine.
Sanctions not “off the table” in South China Sea dispute. David Stilwell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia, has said that the United States could impose sanctions on China as part of its new stance on Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea. When asked about the possibility of sanctions, Stilwell replied: “Nothing is off the table … there is room for that. This is a language the Chinese understand—demonstrative and tangible action.”
And if you’re are still wondering what Monday’s U.S. declaration of China’s South China Sea claims as “unlawful” means for U.S. policy, read this short explainer.
North Macedonia holds general election. Citizens of North Macedonia go to the polls today in their first vote since the country changed its name from Macedonia two years ago. Opinion polls show the country’s two main parties—the Social Democrats (SDSM) and the conservative VMRO-DPMNE—in a tight race, making it likely that neither wins an outright majority in the 120-seat parliament. An interim government has ruled North Macedonia since January after the resignation of SDSM Prime Minister Zoran Zaev.
Tensions flare in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian and Azerbaijani forces both suffered casualties in ongoing skirmishes over disputed territory in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Fighting has been sporadic since war broke out in the 1990s, and flared up again on Sunday. Armenia reported four soldiers killed on Tuesday, with Azerbaijan reporting seven soldiers killed along with one civilian. Russia has offered to act as a mediator in the dispute, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to protect Azerbaijan, which has ethnic ties with Turkey.
Keep an Eye On
Global population could peak sooner than anticipated. A new study, published in the medical journal the Lancet, has challenged United Nations estimates of when peak human population will occur. The Lancet study asserts that global population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, and decline to 8.8 billion in 2100. U.N. estimates had previously put peak population at 10.9 billion around the year 2100. The study also warns that China’s aging population could become burdensome in the latter stages of the 21st century, allowing the United States to reassert itself as the world’s largest economy—but only if it retains its status as an immigration magnet.
Coronavirus vaccine heads to large-scale U.S. trial. An experimental coronavirus vaccine developed by the U.S. National Institutes of Health and Moderna Inc. is headed for a 30,000 person human trial—the largest of any potential vaccine so far—following promising results in initial trials. In smaller scale human trials, the vaccine was found to create a similar level of antibodies as those found in recovered coronavirus patients. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease specialist, told the Associated Press that “No matter how you slice this, this is good news.”
Odds and Ends
Saudi Arabia’s ongoing feud with Qatar has reached the sporting world after the kingdom officially banned the Doha-based sports broadcaster BeIN from operating within its borders. The move means that Saudis now have no legal way of watching sporting events like the popular English Premier League as BeIN has exclusive rights in the region (there are also fewer illegal options too, after Saudi Arabia cracked down on Saudi-based pirate broadcaster beoutQ). The decision comes as a consortium led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is poised to purchase Newcastle United for roughly $377 million. If the sale goes through and the BeIN ban stays in place, Saudis will have to seek out more underhanded methods to watch their new team.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-16--The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Transform How Vaccines Are Made

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Transform How Vaccines Are Made There are several possible scenarios for how the coronavirus pandemic will play out in the next few years , and each one that points to a return to normalcy , with the least number of lives lost , includes safe and effective vaccines .
Not surprisingly , developing and deploying COVID-19 vaccines has been a major focus for governments and international organizations .
Even if this pandemic is not unprecedented—the 1918 influenza killed as many as 50 million people , and the HIV pandemic remains a public health problem—it is one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world has faced in a long time .
But major crises can be a useful opportunity to build efficiencies into global systems .
If there is a ray of light , it is that the experience of developing a rapid vaccine for the coronavirus could also reform and improve the global system for the creation and distribution of vaccines for other diseases in the future .
There are several coronavirus vaccines in development .
Currently , at least 145 vaccine programs have been announced—with more than 10 vaccines already in human clinical trials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine will be available in 10 to 16 months .
But substantial uncertainty remains .
The wide range of timelines is at least partially due to the vaccine development process : A lot of things need to go right for a vaccine to be available in a timely manner.The experience of developing a rapid vaccine for the coronavirus could improve the global system for the creation and distribution of all vaccines .
Vaccine development often starts with identifying an antigenic target—the part of the pathogen against which an immune response is likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease even if infection is not prevented ) .
This is usually followed by animal studies to examine and test features of potential vaccines .
A candidate vaccine is then developed for human trials .
Conventionally , human trials are divided into Phase I , II , and III trials for pre-licensure evaluation of vaccines .
In Phase I trials , which usually include only a small number of people , the main objective is to evaluate safety while measuring immune responses ( although the sample size is rarely adequate for proper evaluation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ II trials can include a few dozen to a few hundred people and focus on immunogenicity—whether the body mounts adequate immune responses .
Phase III trials usually include thousands of people and detect the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing the infection or disease .
Both Phase II and III trials continue to monitor vaccine safety .
If everything goes right and a vaccine candidate meets the benchmarks for success and safety , regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency grant licensure .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recommendations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’ s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and similar entities in other countries .
The vaccine is then incorporated into immunization programs .
Vaccine research does not stop at licensure .
For example , Phase IV studies ( often labeled as Phase IV trials—even though most of them are observational studies ) evaluate the real-world effectiveness of vaccines after they are introduced into the population .
These post-marketing studies also evaluate the safety of vaccines for outcomes that are too rare to be identified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to develop a coronavirus vaccine , there are efforts to speed up the vaccine development process .
The progress so far has been encouraging .
The expediency in the vaccine development process has mostly been due to implementation of several steps in parallel .
For example , a few vaccine development plans include conducting Phase I and II trials together , and vaccine candidates similar to ones already used in humans are being evaluated simultaneously in human trials and animal models .
Notably , so far , the increase in the speed of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efficiencies in the process—not by skipping critical steps .
Whenever the world gets a coronavirus vaccine , the lessons from the hunt for this vaccine are likely to change the development and deployment process of vaccinations.Whenever the world gets a coronavirus vaccine , the lessons from the hunt are likely to change the entire system of vaccinations .
Efficiencies identified today are likely to inform the development plans for future vaccines .
Innovative trial designs and parallel conduct of human and animal studies are here to stay .
The new categories of vaccines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines—which use transcripts of viral genes to induce our own cells to produce proteins to precisely stimulate the immune system against the virus—are likely to be retooled for other infections in the future .
The speed with which the virus sequence was publicly shared and used for developing vaccine candidates will serve as a model for new outbreaks of disease in the years ahead .
The changes in the vaccine ecosystem will also include how vaccine development programs are managed .
After the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak , global vaccine and public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public-private partnership called the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations ( CEPI ) , which focuses on speeding up vaccine development for emerging infectious diseases .
CEPI has already provided funding for nine candidate vaccines—the highest by any single entity .
CEPI is funded by governments as diverse as the United Kingdom and Ethiopia and private foundations such as the Wellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation .
The U.S. government , on the other hand , has decided not to provide any funding to CEPI .
Given that vaccine development and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investing in multiple vaccine candidates increases the chances that at least one of them will be successful in gaining licensure and be available for vaccinating the U.S. population ( and people in other countries ) .
The other major global vaccine entity is Gavi—an alliance responsible for making vaccines available to people in low-income countries .
Unlike CEPI , Gavi counts the U.S. government among its financial supporters .
Gavi ’ s current portfolio mostly includes routine vaccines for children and adolescents .
In this pandemic , Gavi is likely to expand its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as children .
Another likely legacy of the coronavirus crisis could be a global adult vaccination program .
The early priority groups for a COVID-19 vaccine are likely to include the elderly , health care workers , and people with co-morbid conditions such as hypertension—mostly adults .
Globally , very few countries routinely immunize adults , and those that do have a low vaccination rate for adults .
For COVID-19 , return to normalcy will only be possible if a high enough population—including adults—are vaccinated , inducing herd immunity .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to develop and expand adult immunization systems .
Such a system is likely to outlast the pandemic phase of COVID-19 and will be useful for increasing the availability and coverage of other adult vaccines such as those against influenza and pneumonia .
The changes underway to address the COVID-19 pandemic can help modernize vaccine development and deployment for all diseases .
While the many adaptations in the vaccine development and deployment process forced by the coronavirus outbreak are likely to outlast the pandemic , a resilient and innovative vaccine system will require going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , many had the naive belief that , given COVID-19 ’ s toll , there will be universal acceptance of a vaccine against it .
While a coronavirus vaccine is yet to be deployed , survey data indicates that a substantial proportion of Americans might refuse the vaccine .
“ Plandemic , ” a 26-minute viral video propagating outlandish conspiracy theories about COVID-19 , vaccines , and Bill Gates—a prominent vaccine proponent—garnered millions of views in only a few weeks .
There ’ s no coherent large-scale response to vaccine-related misinformation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lesson from this pandemic is to expect and prepare for countering misinformation early in a pandemic .
Assuring safety of novel vaccines is at the core of science-based vaccine development .
Fast , large-scale deployment of a pandemic vaccine requires systems to rapidly detect and evaluate safety signals .
Missing a real safety signal or not being able to rapidly rebut a false signal can seriously undermine a vaccine program .
Assessing vaccine safety requires large databases and monitoring systems—particularly to detect rare but important vaccine side effects .
Currently , many countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but these systems are usually siloed , and efforts to connect them have been met with technological and bureaucratic challenges .
Going forward , it will be essential to connect these systems to conduct large , multicountry studies of rare side effects .
Major crises often perturb the status quo .
This is no different for the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the global vaccine ecosystem .
If managed well , the changes underway to address the COVID-19 pandemic can help modernize vaccine development and deployment for all diseases .

There are several possible scenarios for how the coronavirus pandemic will play out in the next few years, and each one that points to a return to normalcy, with the least number of lives lost, includes safe and effective vaccines. Not surprisingly, developing and deploying COVID-19 vaccines has been a major focus for governments and international organizations.
There are several possible scenarios for how the coronavirus pandemic will play out in the next few years, and each one that points to a return to normalcy, with the least number of lives lost, includes safe and effective vaccines. Not surprisingly, developing and deploying COVID-19 vaccines has been a major focus for governments and international organizations.
Even if this pandemic is not unprecedented—the 1918 influenza killed as many as 50 million people, and the HIV pandemic remains a public health problem—it is one of the most significant global emergencies the world has faced in a long time. But major crises can be a useful opportunity to build efficiencies into global systems. If there is a ray of light, it is that the experience of developing a rapid vaccine for the coronavirus could also reform and improve the global system for the creation and distribution of vaccines for other diseases in the future.
There are several coronavirus vaccines in development. Currently, at least 145 vaccine programs have been announced—with more than 10 vaccines already in human clinical trials. Many experts predict that a licensed vaccine will be available in 10 to 16 months. But substantial uncertainty remains. The wide range of timelines is at least partially due to the vaccine development process: A lot of things need to go right for a vaccine to be available in a timely manner.The experience of developing a rapid vaccine for the coronavirus could improve the global system for the creation and distribution of all vaccines.
Vaccine development often starts with identifying an antigenic target—the part of the pathogen against which an immune response is likely to provide protection from infection (or against disease even if infection is not prevented). This is usually followed by animal studies to examine and test features of potential vaccines. A candidate vaccine is then developed for human trials. Conventionally, human trials are divided into Phase I, II, and III trials for pre-licensure evaluation of vaccines. In Phase I trials, which usually include only a small number of people, the main objective is to evaluate safety while measuring immune responses (although the sample size is rarely adequate for proper evaluation of vaccine immune responses). Phase II trials can include a few dozen to a few hundred people and focus on immunogenicity—whether the body mounts adequate immune responses. Phase III trials usually include thousands of people and detect the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing the infection or disease. Both Phase II and III trials continue to monitor vaccine safety.
If everything goes right and a vaccine candidate meets the benchmarks for success and safety, regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency grant licensure. This is usually followed by public health and clinical recommendations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and similar entities in other countries. The vaccine is then incorporated into immunization programs. Vaccine research does not stop at licensure. For example, Phase IV studies (often labeled as Phase IV trials—even though most of them are observational studies) evaluate the real-world effectiveness of vaccines after they are introduced into the population. These post-marketing studies also evaluate the safety of vaccines for outcomes that are too rare to be identified in pre-licensure studies.
With the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine, there are efforts to speed up the vaccine development process. The progress so far has been encouraging. The expediency in the vaccine development process has mostly been due to implementation of several steps in parallel. For example, a few vaccine development plans include conducting Phase I and II trials together, and vaccine candidates similar to ones already used in humans are being evaluated simultaneously in human trials and animal models. Notably, so far, the increase in the speed of the development of vaccines comes through implementing efficiencies in the process—not by skipping critical steps.
Whenever the world gets a coronavirus vaccine, the lessons from the hunt for this vaccine are likely to change the development and deployment process of vaccinations.Whenever the world gets a coronavirus vaccine, the lessons from the hunt are likely to change the entire system of vaccinations.
Efficiencies identified today are likely to inform the development plans for future vaccines. Innovative trial designs and parallel conduct of human and animal studies are here to stay. The new categories of vaccines being evaluated, such as messenger RNA-based vaccines—which use transcripts of viral genes to induce our own cells to produce proteins to precisely stimulate the immune system against the virus—are likely to be retooled for other infections in the future. The speed with which the virus sequence was publicly shared and used for developing vaccine candidates will serve as a model for new outbreaks of disease in the years ahead.
The changes in the vaccine ecosystem will also include how vaccine development programs are managed. After the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, global vaccine and public health leaders came together to establish a public-private partnership called the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which focuses on speeding up vaccine development for emerging infectious diseases. CEPI has already provided funding for nine candidate vaccines—the highest by any single entity.
CEPI is funded by governments as diverse as the United Kingdom and Ethiopia and private foundations such as the Wellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The U.S. government, on the other hand, has decided not to provide any funding to CEPI. Given that vaccine development and trials are an increasingly multicountry exercise, investing in multiple vaccine candidates increases the chances that at least one of them will be successful in gaining licensure and be available for vaccinating the U.S. population (and people in other countries).
The other major global vaccine entity is Gavi—an alliance responsible for making vaccines available to people in low-income countries. Unlike CEPI, Gavi counts the U.S. government among its financial supporters. Gavi’s current portfolio mostly includes routine vaccines for children and adolescents. In this pandemic, Gavi is likely to expand its role to support pandemic vaccines for adults as well as children.
Another likely legacy of the coronavirus crisis could be a global adult vaccination program. The early priority groups for a COVID-19 vaccine are likely to include the elderly, health care workers, and people with co-morbid conditions such as hypertension—mostly adults. Globally, very few countries routinely immunize adults, and those that do have a low vaccination rate for adults. For COVID-19, return to normalcy will only be possible if a high enough population—including adults—are vaccinated, inducing herd immunity. To do so, the world will have to develop and expand adult immunization systems. Such a system is likely to outlast the pandemic phase of COVID-19 and will be useful for increasing the availability and coverage of other adult vaccines such as those against influenza and pneumonia. The changes underway to address the COVID-19 pandemic can help modernize vaccine development and deployment for all diseases.
While the many adaptations in the vaccine development and deployment process forced by the coronavirus outbreak are likely to outlast the pandemic, a resilient and innovative vaccine system will require going beyond what is being tried. For example, many had the naive belief that, given COVID-19’s toll, there will be universal acceptance of a vaccine against it. While a coronavirus vaccine is yet to be deployed, survey data indicates that a substantial proportion of Americans might refuse the vaccine.
“Plandemic,” a 26-minute viral video propagating outlandish conspiracy theories about COVID-19, vaccines, and Bill Gates—a prominent vaccine proponent—garnered millions of views in only a few weeks. There’s no coherent large-scale response to vaccine-related misinformation and emerging mistrust in COVID-19 vaccines. A lesson from this pandemic is to expect and prepare for countering misinformation early in a pandemic.
Assuring safety of novel vaccines is at the core of science-based vaccine development. Fast, large-scale deployment of a pandemic vaccine requires systems to rapidly detect and evaluate safety signals. Missing a real safety signal or not being able to rapidly rebut a false signal can seriously undermine a vaccine program. Assessing vaccine safety requires large databases and monitoring systems—particularly to detect rare but important vaccine side effects. Currently, many countries have data systems for monitoring vaccine safety, but these systems are usually siloed, and efforts to connect them have been met with technological and bureaucratic challenges. Going forward, it will be essential to connect these systems to conduct large, multicountry studies of rare side effects.
Major crises often perturb the status quo. This is no different for the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the global vaccine ecosystem. If managed well, the changes underway to address the COVID-19 pandemic can help modernize vaccine development and deployment for all diseases.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-16--Why Are Mysterious Fires Still Burning in Iran?

Why Are Mysterious Fires Still Burning in Iran ?
Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s Security Brief .
What ’ s on tap today : A wave of unusual fires is burning across Iran , Western governments accuse Russia of meddling with coronavirus vaccine research , and Trump signs off on covert CIA hacking authorities .
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
Iran , already ravaged by U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic , now faces another scourge : A wave of mysterious fires torching the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ships in Bushehr , a major port city , on Wednesday .
The fires include a July 2 explosion at an underground fuel enrichment plant in Natanz that the New York Times reported was part of a covert effort to undermine the Iranian nuclear program .
The incidents have sparked fears in Iran that the United States and Israel are increasing sabotage operations directed at Tehran .
No deaths were reported from Wednesday ’ s fire .
Officials in Iran have blamed some of the fires on sabotage , but others appear to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failures , and inclement weather , the Times reported .
The fires may raise fears of military miscalculation between the United States and Iran .
The blazes come as the United States failed to convince allies on the U.N. Security Council to extend an arms embargo against Iran set to expire in October , as Foreign Policy reported .
The Trump administration faces opposition from allies in its efforts to continue its so-called “ maximum pressure ” campaign—a definitive effort to scupper the 2015 nuclear deal .
A website close to Iran ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , said this month that an attack on Natanz could cross a “ red line ” and lead to “ fundamental changes ” in the Middle East .
Hackers target vaccine research .
The U.S. , British , and Canadian governments have all accused Russian hackers linked to the Kremlin of trying to infiltrate organizations working to develop a coronavirus vaccine .
“ It is completely unacceptable that the Russian Intelligence Services are targeting those working to combat the coronavirus pandemic , ” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a statement on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ selfish interests with reckless behaviour , the U.K. and its allies are getting on with the hard work of finding a vaccine and protecting global health.
” According to the British government , the actors responsible are from a group called APT29 , also known as Cozy Bear and The Dukes—a group of Russia-sponsored hackers believed to be behind hacks during the 2016 U.S. presidential election .
Vaccine research has unsurprisingly become a treasured commodity for intelligence agencies worldwide , as countries rush to develop vaccines against the coronavirus .
Russia revels in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. military accused Russian-backed mercenaries from the Wagner Group of planting landmines around the Libyan capital of Tripoli , a sign that fighting between Libya ’ s warring factions could continue even as Libyan National Army Gen. Khalifa Haftar retreats .
“ Imagery and intelligence assessments show how Russia continues to interfere in Libyan affairs .
Wagner Group ’ s reckless use of landmines and booby traps are harming innocent civilians , ” said Rear Adm. Heidi Berg , AFRICOM ’ s director of intelligence , in a statement .
Libya has become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fights , with both warring factions backed by various European powers , Persian Gulf states , Turkey , and Russia .
Covert e-ffairs .
In 2018 , U.S. President Donald Trump signed off on giving the CIA sweeping new authorities to conduct covert cyber attacks , unshackling the agency from restrictions it has sought to loosen since the George W. Bush administration , according to a Yahoo News investigation .
The directives give the CIA increased ability to target adversaries like Russia , China , and North Korea , and reduce the burden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ religious institutions , or other non-state entities believed to be working for rival foreign powers .
Some welcomed the move , while others feared the new powers cede too much decision-making authority from the CIA ’ s overseers in the National Security Council .
Unwelcome homecoming .
The U.K. Court of Appeal has ruled that Shamima Begum , who left London to join the Islamic State in Syria in 2015 , can return to the United Kingdom and fight to reclaim her British citizenship—stripped in 2019 .
The British government could still challenge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case could have important long-term implications for many European governments grappling with citizens who joined ISIS and who are now detained and in limbo .
The Pentagon ’ s new research chief .
Michael Kratsios , the White House ’ s 33-year old chief technology officer , is set to take over as the Pentagon ’ s acting head of research and engineering , just weeks after Michael Griffin announced he would depart the job .
Defense One reports that Kratsios lacks a basic science degree—his predecessor had a doctorate in aerospace engineering—but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worked for the venture capitalist Peter Thiel , once a major contributor to Trump .
Look who ’ s back .
Sebastian Gorka , an early advisor to the Trump administration known for his right-wing views , will be appointed by the White House to sit on the National Security Education Board .
The board is responsible for awarding grants and scholarships to help address the need for experts in critical languages and regions .
If you spot a black Ford Mustang with Virginia plates that read “ ART WAR , ” it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump announced on July 15 that he is demoting his campaign manager , Brad Parscale , and replacing him with former deputy Bill Stepien .
The reshuffle is reportedly a response to a disappointing turnout at Trump ’ s campaign rally in Tulsa , Oklahoma , after Parscale promised to mobilize hundreds of thousands of supporters for the event .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit the United Kingdom from July 20 to 22 to meet with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab .
He will then travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mette Frederiksen and other members of the Danish government .
Sen. Mitt Romney will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday , July 21 , for an online discussion on U.S.-China relations .
Gone fishing .
Turkmenistan ’ s dictator is renowned for producing some of the most over-the-top propaganda videos , and the latest one is not to be missed .
Via Eurasianet : “ Turkmenistan ’ s president goes fishing , with mask ( because of “ dust , ” not coronavirus ) , catches many fish , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at fish , then clap , then eat fish , then clap again ” ( If you ’ re hungry for more , check out the rap video he made with his grandson . )
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or typos to securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer and Dan Haverty

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief. What’s on tap today: A wave of unusual fires is burning across Iran , Western governments accuse Russia of meddling with coronavirus vaccine research , and Trump signs off on covert CIA hacking authorities.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief. What’s on tap today: A wave of unusual fires is burning across Iran, Western governments accuse Russia of meddling with coronavirus vaccine research, and Trump signs off on covert CIA hacking authorities.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
Mysterious Fires Scorch Iran
Iran, already ravaged by U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, now faces another scourge: A wave of mysterious fires torching the country, including a blaze that burned seven ships in Bushehr, a major port city, on Wednesday. The fires include a July 2 explosion at an underground fuel enrichment plant in Natanz that the New York Times reported was part of a covert effort to undermine the Iranian nuclear program.
The incidents have sparked fears in Iran that the United States and Israel are increasing sabotage operations directed at Tehran. No deaths were reported from Wednesday’s fire. Officials in Iran have blamed some of the fires on sabotage, but others appear to have been caused by accidents, equipment failures, and inclement weather, the Times reported.
The fires may raise fears of military miscalculation between the United States and Iran. The blazes come as the United States failed to convince allies on the U.N. Security Council to extend an arms embargo against Iran set to expire in October, as Foreign Policy reported. The Trump administration faces opposition from allies in its efforts to continue its so-called “maximum pressure” campaign—a definitive effort to scupper the 2015 nuclear deal.
A website close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Nournews, said this month that an attack on Natanz could cross a “red line” and lead to “fundamental changes” in the Middle East.
What We’re Watching
Hackers target vaccine research. The U.S., British, and Canadian governments have all accused Russian hackers linked to the Kremlin of trying to infiltrate organizations working to develop a coronavirus vaccine. “It is completely unacceptable that the Russian Intelligence Services are targeting those working to combat the coronavirus pandemic,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a statement on Thursday. “While others pursue their selfish interests with reckless behaviour, the U.K. and its allies are getting on with the hard work of finding a vaccine and protecting global health.”
According to the British government, the actors responsible are from a group called APT29, also known as Cozy Bear and The Dukes—a group of Russia-sponsored hackers believed to be behind hacks during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Vaccine research has unsurprisingly become a treasured commodity for intelligence agencies worldwide, as countries rush to develop vaccines against the coronavirus.
Russia revels in Libya quagmire. On Wednesday, the U.S. military accused Russian-backed mercenaries from the Wagner Group of planting landmines around the Libyan capital of Tripoli, a sign that fighting between Libya’s warring factions could continue even as Libyan National Army Gen. Khalifa Haftar retreats. “Imagery and intelligence assessments show how Russia continues to interfere in Libyan affairs. Wagner Group’s reckless use of landmines and booby traps are harming innocent civilians,” said Rear Adm. Heidi Berg, AFRICOM’s director of intelligence, in a statement.
Libya has become a hotbed of geopolitical tussling and proxy fights, with both warring factions backed by various European powers, Persian Gulf states, Turkey, and Russia.
Covert e-ffairs. In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump signed off on giving the CIA sweeping new authorities to conduct covert cyber attacks, unshackling the agency from restrictions it has sought to loosen since the George W. Bush administration, according to a Yahoo News investigation. The directives give the CIA increased ability to target adversaries like Russia, China, and North Korea, and reduce the burden of proof for targeting media organizations, religious institutions, or other non-state entities believed to be working for rival foreign powers.
Some welcomed the move, while others feared the new powers cede too much decision-making authority from the CIA’s overseers in the National Security Council.
Unwelcome homecoming. The U.K. Court of Appeal has ruled that Shamima Begum, who left London to join the Islamic State in Syria in 2015, can return to the United Kingdom and fight to reclaim her British citizenship—stripped in 2019. The British government could still challenge the ruling, but Begum’s case could have important long-term implications for many European governments grappling with citizens who joined ISIS and who are now detained and in limbo.
Movers and Shakers
The Pentagon’s new research chief. Michael Kratsios, the White House’s 33-year old chief technology officer, is set to take over as the Pentagon’s acting head of research and engineering, just weeks after Michael Griffin announced he would depart the job. Defense One reports that Kratsios lacks a basic science degree—his predecessor had a doctorate in aerospace engineering—but boasts deep ties to Silicon Valley and worked for the venture capitalist Peter Thiel, once a major contributor to Trump.
Look who’s back. Sebastian Gorka, an early advisor to the Trump administration known for his right-wing views, will be appointed by the White House to sit on the National Security Education Board. The board is responsible for awarding grants and scholarships to help address the need for experts in critical languages and regions. If you spot a black Ford Mustang with Virginia plates that read “ART WAR,” it might be him.
Campaign shakeup. Trump announced on July 15 that he is demoting his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, and replacing him with former deputy Bill Stepien. The reshuffle is reportedly a response to a disappointing turnout at Trump’s campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, after Parscale promised to mobilize hundreds of thousands of supporters for the event.
The Week Ahead
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit the United Kingdom from July 20 to 22 to meet with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. He will then travel to Denmark to meet with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and other members of the Danish government.
Sen. Mitt Romney will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday, July 21, for an online discussion on U.S.-China relations.
Odds and Ends
Gone fishing. Turkmenistan’s dictator is renowned for producing some of the most over-the-top propaganda videos, and the latest one is not to be missed. Via Eurasianet: “Turkmenistan’s president goes fishing, with mask (because of “dust,” not coronavirus), catches many fish, gives fish to orphans, who look at fish, then clap, then eat fish, then clap again” (If you’re hungry for more, check out the rap video he made with his grandson.)
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-16--To Pay for the Pandemic, Dry Out the Tax Havens

The bitter truth is that the costs and consequences of the pandemic likely could have been avoided or dramatically reduced if leaders had done their jobs .
In 2013 , the World Bank estimated that an annual expenditure of only $ 3.4 billion would have let developing countries build up a robust pandemic prevention capability , making a global outbreak much less likely .
Yet this relatively modest expenditure wasn ’ t made .
It ’ s also well documented that many leaders , including U.S. President Donald Trump , were too slow to respond to the pandemic , increasing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failures exacerbated the damage suffered by other countries around the world .
With economies struggling and sharply reduced tax revenues for the foreseeable future , how will the world pay for this calamity ?
The money needed to pay for the pandemic is actually close at hand , hidden away in offshore financial centers ( OFCs ) , more commonly known as tax havens .
OFCs are estimated to hold up to $ 36 trillion in cash , gold , and securities , not including tangible assets such as real estate , art @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , U.S. federal tax revenues are a little over $ 3 trillion a year . )
OFCs are located around the world and include Switzerland , Hong Kong , the Cayman Islands , the British Virgin Islands , the Bahamas , the Isle of Man , Luxembourg , Lichtenstein , Ireland , Singapore , Panama , Trinidad and Tobago , the Seychelles , and Vanuatu .
And the Financial Secrecy Index , published by the Tax Justice Network , ranks the United States as the second-most complicit country after the Cayman Islands in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For decades , these and other OFCs have allowed individuals and corporations to amass and shelter tremendous fortunes from taxation .
In the process , they ’ ve exacerbated income inequality , increased global financial instability , and allowed multinational corporations and their shareholders to pocket trillions of dollars in what they should have paid in taxes .
OFCs have been tolerated ( and even used to hide personal assets ) by current and former political and business leaders .
The Panama Papers investigation revealed that 140 politicians from more than 50 countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dealers , arms traffickers , and others , had secret accounts in the country .
And Panama is but one of scores of tax havens around the world .
Offshore tax havens have exacerbated income inequality , increased global financial instability , and allowed multinational corporations and their shareholders to pocket trillions of dollars in what they should have paid in taxes .
Why have OFCs not been shut down ?
Lee Sheppard , an American tax expert , offered one colorful explanation : “ We fuss about them , howl that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t shut them down , because the town fathers are in there with their pants around their ankles .
Tax havens can not exist without the consent of the countries whose transactions they accept.
” The financial consequences of this selfishness have been exposed by the pandemic .
Tax havens have beggared the world , depriving countries of the resources they need to avoid and manage global crises .
But the COVID-19 pandemic has given leaders a chance to learn from their mistakes and shut down OFCs once and for all .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ political will , legal action , concerted global pressure , and publicity .
It must begin with the realization that it ’ s no longer acceptable for public and private sector leaders to use and tolerate OFCs .
But something else also will be required .
Leaders must stop thinking in the short term for their own political purposes , which only increases the magnitude and cost of the challenges future generations will face .
The COVID-19 pandemic is just one example , where Americans and others around the world will need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borrowed to manage its consequences .
The costs associated with climate change , human migration , the depletion of natural resources , and other future crises may eclipse those related to COVID-19 .
So how do we shut them down ?
The money held by OFCs falls in two broad categories .
The first is untaxed money held by wealthy individuals , some of it the result of criminal activity .
It includes more than 70 percent of the financial wealth held by citizens of the United Arab Emirates , almost 50 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 15 percent in Continental Europe , with this figure estimated to be much higher for countries with notoriously tax-evading elites , such as Greece , Portugal , and Belgium .
The estimate for the United States is below 10 percent , but even that is a huge sum considering Americans are worth almost $ 100 trillion .
The second category of money held in OFCs is the tax savings of multinational corporations , which use OFCs to shelter earnings from taxation through tax arbitrage and creative accounting mechanisms .
In effect , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on revenues they earn overseas .
It ’ s estimated that this practice diminishes tax revenue in countries where it otherwise would be paid by up to $ 600 billion every year .
This includes $ 200 billion forfeited by developing countries , which can least afford it .
Meanwhile , taxpayers are providing foreign aid , a significant part of which also lands in personal accounts in OFCs .
Recovering the money owed by the world ’ s wealthy Some governments recently have taken a first step to identify offshore accounts and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For example , the U.S. Justice Department and the IRS have an aggressive program to identify OFC accounts held by Americans .
Banks found to be sheltering Americans ’ untaxed assets and income have been prosecuted and fined .
The U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS have teamed up with numerous countries and jurisdictions to improve tax compliance through the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act ( FATCA ) , which requires information to be exchanged on American depositors at foreign banks and the taxes withheld on their transactions .
FATCA punishes foreign banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its American depositors .
Given the centrality of the United States to the international banking system and of the dollar in international trade , most banks have complied , resulting in some notable recoveries on behalf of U.S. taxpayers .
For example , Israel ’ s largest bank , Bank Hapoalim , and its Swiss subsidiary recently agreed to pay a fine of over $ 874 million for sheltering $ 7.6 billion in Americans ’ assets .
Israel ’ s largest bank , Bank Hapoalim , and its Swiss subsidiary recently agreed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million for sheltering $ 7.6 billion in Americans ’ assets .
Compared with the estimated $ 36 trillion amassed in OFCs , the United States hasn ’ t gone nearly far enough .
FATCA itself fails to provide full reciprocity to jurisdictions that share account information with U.S. authorities , depriving foreign countries the opportunity to collect taxes they ’ re owed .
FATCA also does nothing to require European OFCs to disclose information on their non-U.S. account holders to the jurisdictions where they owe taxes , no doubt because U.S. lawmakers thought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing so .
But it does have an interest , given the need for other countries to manage crises that can , and do , affect the United States .
In addition , states such as Delaware and South Dakota , by allowing the establishment of opaque trusts and the incorporation of companies without disclosing the identities of their beneficial owners , enable individuals to hide their assets from tax authorities and creditors .
This is one of several reasons the United States is ranked second in helping individuals to hide their assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. House of Representatives recently introduced a bill to counter money laundering and improve U.S. tax enforcement .
In addition , there have been other governmental efforts to enhance the transparency of tax havens that have yielded some benefits .
For example , in 2014 the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) , following the lead of FATCA , established Common Reporting Standards , which require financial institutions to report on virtually all foreign investments they handle .
These standards are broader than FATCA and have resulted in the disclosure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compliance .
Britain , too , has recently taken some small steps to boost tax collection , requiring targets to reveal the source of unexplained wealth .
The failure to do so can result in their assets being seized , although the process involved can provide time for the assets to be transferred out of the country .
But despite this policy change , the U.K. is at the center of the largest global tax haven system and one of the greatest enablers of tax avoidance .
It long has tolerated tax havens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jersey , the Isle of Man , and the Cayman Islands , ranked as the most secret of OFCs on the 2020 Financial Secrecy Index .
It ’ s true that the U.K. Parliament recently attempted to make the corporate registries of these tax havens available to the public , but the British government has a long history of issuing empty statements and ineffective initiatives regarding its dependencies .
Whether Parliament ’ s recent efforts will mark a turning point in Britain ’ s tolerance of its own OFCs remains to be seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put the Cayman Islands on its blacklist of tax havens .
Countries could ban air and sea travel to and from nontransparent OFCs , denying the citizens of these OFCs entry into their countries .
All of this gives the appearance of progress .
But given the long-standing failure to shut down tax havens despite the vast sums they maintain , it ’ s difficult to be optimistic .
Something more will be required to recover the money in these secret accounts , and it ’ s time to bring the hammer down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ denying all OFCs that don ’ t disclose the identities of their depositors the ability to clear dollar-denominated transactions in New York , which would have the effect of denying them access to the international banking system ; • denying noncompliant OFCs the ability to purchase the debt instruments of the United States and other OECD members , which would increase their depositors ’ investment risk ; • passing legislation to make illegal all tax structures whose effect is to shield individuals from tax liability ; • subjecting accountants , lawyers , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abetting tax evasion , including by creating structures whose only purpose is to minimize or avoid taxes ; • legislating pre-judgment attachment statutes and other attachment agreements to prevent depositors from moving their assets when their OFC accounts have been revealed or their tax structures are under scrutiny ; • paying bounties for those who identify foreign account holders and tax-avoidant structures ; • negotiating extradition treaties to enable more prosecutions of tax cheats ; • passing laws allowing the confiscation of assets on which taxes were never paid—where the confiscated amounts are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and interest owed ; • providing additional resources to increase the number of tax investigations and criminal prosecutions for those utilizing tax havens ; and • requiring long , mandatory jail sentences for convicted tax cheats and their enablers .
Other forms of old-school pressure also should be applied .
One example of what could be done was the action taken by French President Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s to stop French citizens from hiding their income and wealth in Monaco .
At the time , France had a tax rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t tax the income of French nationals .
De Gaulle stopped the practice by shutting down the one road to Monaco until the principality disclosed the names of French citizens using its banks .
The equivalent today would be for countries to ban air and sea travel to and from nontransparent OFCs , denying the citizens of such OFCs entry into their countries , and to implement trade embargoes .
A critical mass of countries prepared to take all or some of these actions would begin to put enormous pressure on OFCs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their depositors and make life for those using noncompliant tax havens very difficult .
How to eliminate or minimize the tax avoidance mechanisms of multinationals is even more challenging than recovering the money hidden by individuals .
The reason is that unlike the practices of individual tax cheats , what multinationals are doing often is legal .
The law as it presently stands in many countries allows them to incorporate offshore in tax havens with no or only low taxes .
The result has been trillions of dollars in savings for the companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this practice is that by increasing profits through tax avoidance , multinationals are increasing the value of their stock .
This amounts to taxpayers subsidizing , through lost taxes , these companies ’ shareholders .
One legal mechanism used by multinationals to avoid taxes is to shift earnings from a jurisdiction with a high tax rate to one with a lower rate .
While legal , this results in the avoidance of an estimated $ 600 billion per year in taxes by multinationals .
U.S. corporations are thought to be the most aggressive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for over half of all corporate profits shifted to OFCs .
Indeed , although the corporate tax rate in the U.S. is 21 percent , 60 companies on the Fortune 500 list paid no tax at all in 2018 on profits of $ 79 billion , in part because they kept their revenues offshore .
Instead of paying taxes on these profits , they received a rebate of $ 4.3 billion .
The effective tax rate for U.S. corporations overall in 2019 was only 11.3 percent .
It should come as no surprise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between 2017 and 2018 .
These immense taxpayer subsidies to corporations and their shareholders are not only unjust but also shortsighted .
Tax avoidance beggars the countries on whose markets and financial health multinationals depend .
The financial shell game played by multinationals such as Apple is enormously destructive .
The financial shell game played by multinationals is enormously destructive .
For example , Apple ’ s overseas operations are incorporated in Ireland , enabling the company to avoid hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes for all of its international operations .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ otherwise have been paid to developing countries , which desperately need the resources to manage the challenges they face .
Why does Ireland help Apple and other multinationals in this way ?
For a few jobs .
Apple has 137,000 employees , of which a mere 6,000 work in Ireland .
The injustice of these taxpayer subsidies reflects a profound shift in the role of corporations in society .
The practice of multinationals using OFCs to minimize their taxes is a relatively recent development .
There was a time not so long ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the relationship between their companies and the communities from which they drew their employees was symbiotic .
As a result , they were far less likely to minimize their taxes .
Fortunately , the unfairness of this situation has not gone unnoticed .
In 2016 , the European Commission ruled that Ireland had granted illegal tax benefits to Apple and ordered the company to pay Ireland 13 billion euros ( $ 14.8 billion ) .
Was Apple chagrined , and did it take steps to make amends ?
Not at all—it appealed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also appealed , despite the fact that the ruling would have increased its tax revenues .
On July 15 , their appeal was successful when a European Union court overruled the commission , a major setback for the EU ’ s effort to counter tax avoidance schemes .
Apple also moved some of its operations to Jersey as an additional jurisdiction for its tax avoidance scheme .
During the Obama administration , the U.S. Treasury also expressed its concern about tax avoidance by U.S. multinationals such as Apple .
But it decided against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of tax avoidance schemes , arguing it would have put U.S. corporations at a competitive disadvantage and resulted in lower U.S. tax revenues .
The U.S. Treasury ’ s position must not be the end of the story regarding tax avoidance by multinationals .
Tax havens are beggaring too many countries where multinationals actually make their money .
It will be difficult for any one country suffering the loss of tax revenues to stop this selfish and destructive practice because it would run the risk of companies relocating , resulting in a loss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay where they are incorporated .
But if a substantial group of countries , such as OECD members or the EU , acted together , they could begin to stop or limit the practice of multinationals using taxpayer money to subsidize their shareholders .
Agreements to standardize corporate tax rates among them would be one approach .
If a substantial group of countries acted together , they could begin to stop or limit the practice of multinationals using taxpayer money to subsidize their shareholders .
Even without full participation by all countries , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ options of multinationals and expose their tax avoidance efforts .
It is one thing for Apple to be incorporated and have operations in Ireland .
But it ’ s unlikely the company would relocate to Vanuatu or the Marshall Islands if Ireland began to tax Apple at the same rate as its fellow OECD or EU member states .
Recruiting problems , for one , would prohibit such a move .
The resulting publicity likely would damage Apple ’ s brand .
At some point , multinationals could even feel pressure to rethink @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communities in which they operate , not just to those owning shares of their stock .
The pandemic has made clear that the world needs to change the equation by which we ’ ve lived .
We must act to lessen the potential financial and health impacts of global crises before they emerge and take steps to be able to finance them when they arrive .
We can begin by shutting down the tax havens that threaten the future of the many for the benefit of the few .
And we can expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future .
Some people may think the future is a luxury we can ’ t afford , believing we don ’ t live there .
But another thing the pandemic has made clear is that sometimes the future draws near .
Now is such a time .
Our leaders should act accordingly and find a way to pay the price a safe and prosperous future will require of us .

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A crowd of women wearing scarves on their heads and colorful garb hold torches during a demonstration demanding the restoration of peace in India's northeastern Manipur state in Imphal on July 10. Is the world standing by as ethnic cleansing takes place in the Indian state of Manipur? Since May, violence between the Meitei ethnic majority and the Kuki minority has torn through the sma...Show morell state bordering Myanmar in India’s northeast. Mobs have burned hundreds of homes and churches, and tens of thousands of people have fled. The conflict has largely been ignored by Western media, despite global attention focused on India, which is the rotating host of the G-20 this year. What is actually going on in Manipur? What should New Delhi do? What are the ramifications for India, Myanmar, and the world? Indian journalist Barkha Dutt has reported extensively from Manipur this year. Join her and defense expert Sushant Singh, who has chronicled the conflict in Foreign Policy, for a FP Live conversation with host Ravi Agrawal.