foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--In Likely Lost Election, QAnon Sees Even More Conspiracies

In Likely Lost Election , QAnon Sees Even More Conspiracies This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s loyal online army of conspiracy theorists is enraptured by the tight results , just like everyone else .
But in the world of QAnon , evidence of voter fraud is everywhere .
From discussion of a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michigan to concerns that Sharpie markers have ruined the votes of Trump supporters in Arizona , QAnon followers in chatrooms , on far-right Twitter clone Gab , and on 8kun ( formerly known as 8chan ) have glommed onto Trump ’ s questioning of the results .
There is , of course , no evidence of substantial or widespread voter fraud—a spike in votes in Michigan was the result of a clerical error ; and many counties and officials have said Sharpies are fine for voting .
Andrew Torba , the CEO of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of unverified , misconstrued , or outright fake voter fraud claims to his his 400,000-plus followers .
Torba promised that a “ COUP IS UNDERWAY.
” Even still , there was cautious optimism among Q ’ s followers that things would ultimately break for the president .
And there was some reason to celebrate for the delusional movement , which remains convinced that this election was a make-or-break moment for Trump ’ s supposed war against the child-trafficking deep state .
Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert both won their congressional races , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates heading to Washington .
Greene , who won her Georgia seat by approximately 50 points , had spent years endorsing deranged conspiracy theories , including the Pizzagate delusion that served as a precursor to QAnon , before ultimately embracing QAnon itself .
Boebert , who won her race by about five points , appeared on a QAnon-sympathetic podcast and described herself as “ very familiar ” with the conspiracy .
Both women have tried to distance themselves from the conspiracy movement since then , but the Q movement has still viewed it @ @ @ @

U.S. President Donald Trump’s loyal online army of conspiracy theorists is enraptured by the tight results, just like everyone else. But in the world of QAnon, evidence of voter fraud is everywhere.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s loyal online army of conspiracy theorists is enraptured by the tight results, just like everyone else. But in the world of QAnon, evidence of voter fraud is everywhere.
From discussion of a “magic” batch of Biden votes in Michigan to concerns that Sharpie markers have ruined the votes of Trump supporters in Arizona, QAnon followers in chatrooms, on far-right Twitter clone Gab, and on 8kun (formerly known as 8chan) have glommed onto Trump’s questioning of the results. There is, of course, no evidence of substantial or widespread voter fraud—a spike in votes in Michigan was the result of a clerical error; and many counties and officials have said Sharpies are fine for voting. Andrew Torba, the CEO of Gab, has been sharing a slew of unverified, misconstrued, or outright fake voter fraud claims to his his 400,000-plus followers. Torba promised that a “COUP IS UNDERWAY.”
Even still, there was cautious optimism among Q’s followers that things would ultimately break for the president. And there was some reason to celebrate for the delusional movement, which remains convinced that this election was a make-or-break moment for Trump’s supposed war against the child-trafficking deep state. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert both won their congressional races, meaning they will be the first QAnon-affiliated candidates heading to Washington.
Greene, who won her Georgia seat by approximately 50 points, had spent years endorsing deranged conspiracy theories, including the Pizzagate delusion that served as a precursor to QAnon, before ultimately embracing QAnon itself. Boebert, who won her race by about five points, appeared on a QAnon-sympathetic podcast and described herself as “very familiar” with the conspiracy. Both women have tried to distance themselves from the conspiracy movement since then, but the Q movement has still viewed it as a victory.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--India Would Have Counted the Votes Already

India Would Have Counted the Votes Already This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
NEW DELHI—In India there are many reasons to feel gobsmacked by the U.S. elections .
That tens of millions of Americans would vote a second time around for a racist , sexist , lying , and deluded president is just one of them .
More curiously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s oldest democracy , and the largest economy , finds it so difficult to conduct an election ?
In 2019 , the last year India conducted a national election , more than 614 million citizens cast their votes .
By comparison , only about one-fourth as many Americans will have cast their vote in the 2020 U.S. presidential election .
But if this were an Indian election , by now not only would the authorities have finished counting votes , the winning party would also have been distributing celebratory sweets to party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yes , our voting can sometimes be spread over a few weeks .
This is mostly because of the sheer scale of our democratic process and the need to ensure security .
But our counting of ballots is fast , seamless , and rarely disputed ; our results are announced within a few hours on counting day .
This can ’ t just be because of the difference between paper ballots and electronic voting machines , which India mostly uses .
With the different rules across U.S. states on how late ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plus a sitting president who declared victory while millions of votes were still being counted , the United States has come across to the world as almost amateurish in some of its fumbles and stumbles .
And now the result , delayed as it is , could head toward a recount and potential litigation .
You have to forgive us Indians for cracking a joke or two at America ’ s expense .
Our Election Commission is on standby to send some international observers should the United States need it to supervise the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than that , it ’ s been a fascinating election with echoes around the world .
For liberals everywhere it is one more powerful illustration of how our storytelling has to be as compelling as our facts are .
A Joe Biden presidency in these circumstances is in no way a repudiation of President Donald Trump ’ s politics .
For mainstream politicians—not just in the United States but everywhere , including here in India—that is the lesson this election has brought home .
It doesn ’ t matter how worthy your message @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public while sharing it .
It doesn ’ t matter how egregious you believe your opponent to be ; if you are seen as the status quo , you can never win resoundingly .
From New York to New Delhi , the refusal to engage and talk across the ideological fence is dividing countries , neighborhoods , and homes .
In the civilizational battle between left and right , the space for free thinking has been shrunk by competing dogma .
And for those of us who are journalists , the result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : We really do inhabit echo chambers that prevent alternate realities from being considered .
Indians will rightly wonder if the U.S. election might finally force elites around the world to listen more than they talk .

NEW DELHI—In India there are many reasons to feel gobsmacked by the U.S. elections. That tens of millions of Americans would vote a second time around for a racist, sexist, lying, and deluded president is just one of them. More curiously, how is it that the world’s oldest democracy, and the largest economy, finds it so difficult to conduct an election?
NEW DELHI—In India there are many reasons to feel gobsmacked by the U.S. elections. That tens of millions of Americans would vote a second time around for a racist, sexist, lying, and deluded president is just one of them. More curiously, how is it that the world’s oldest democracy, and the largest economy, finds it so difficult to conduct an election?
In 2019, the last year India conducted a national election, more than 614 million citizens cast their votes. By comparison, only about one-fourth as many Americans will have cast their vote in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. But if this were an Indian election, by now not only would the authorities have finished counting votes, the winning party would also have been distributing celebratory sweets to party cadres, journalists, and opponents alike.
Yes, our voting can sometimes be spread over a few weeks. This is mostly because of the sheer scale of our democratic process and the need to ensure security. But our counting of ballots is fast, seamless, and rarely disputed; our results are announced within a few hours on counting day.
This can’t just be because of the difference between paper ballots and electronic voting machines, which India mostly uses. With the different rules across U.S. states on how late ballots can be counted past Election Day, plus a sitting president who declared victory while millions of votes were still being counted, the United States has come across to the world as almost amateurish in some of its fumbles and stumbles. And now the result, delayed as it is, could head toward a recount and potential litigation.
You have to forgive us Indians for cracking a joke or two at America’s expense. Our Election Commission is on standby to send some international observers should the United States need it to supervise the polls the next time around.
Other than that, it’s been a fascinating election with echoes around the world. For liberals everywhere it is one more powerful illustration of how our storytelling has to be as compelling as our facts are. A Joe Biden presidency in these circumstances is in no way a repudiation of President Donald Trump’s politics. For mainstream politicians—not just in the United States but everywhere, including here in India—that is the lesson this election has brought home. It doesn’t matter how worthy your message is if you can’t mesmerize the public while sharing it. It doesn’t matter how egregious you believe your opponent to be; if you are seen as the status quo, you can never win resoundingly. From New York to New Delhi, the refusal to engage and talk across the ideological fence is dividing countries, neighborhoods, and homes. In the civilizational battle between left and right, the space for free thinking has been shrunk by competing dogma.
And for those of us who are journalists, the result is one more embarrassing lesson in humility: We really do inhabit echo chambers that prevent alternate realities from being considered. Indians will rightly wonder if the U.S. election might finally force elites around the world to listen more than they talk.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--China Isn’t Nervous About the U.S. Election

China Isn ’ t Nervous About the U.S. Election Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s China Brief .
The highlights this week : China is unperturbed as the U.S. presidential election draws to a nail-biting finish , Beijing interferes with Ant Group ’ s major IPO , and Nepal alleges China is threatening its territory .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
The U.S. presidential election is drawing to a nail-biting finish—one that may take days or weeks to fully resolve .
But both Chinese leaders and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winner simply isn ’ t that important to Beijing , which projects long-term U.S. decline and Chinese success in the future .
That both U.S. parties now share a hard-line position on China reinforces the country ’ s relative indifference to the electoral result—although President Donald Trump ’ s stance is one of extremist ideologies mollified by business interests and Joe Biden ’ s is a product of former doves pushed into hawkishness by Beijing ’ s actions .
As Tracy Wen Liu noted on FP ’ s live election page , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see him as granting China the time and credibility needed for geopolitical dominance .
More than anything else , this vision turns on the U.S. mishandling of COVID-19 ( and China ’ s success at curbing the spread of infections ) .
Weekly U.S. deaths are now often more than China ’ s entire official death total from the pandemic .
But the Chinese authorities have been very cautious about U.S. election coverage , both out of discomfort with covering democratic elections—in case anyone gets ideas—and out of fears that commentary could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate .
The real danger may come if election disputes drag on , convincing Beijing that domestic concerns will distract the United States from overseas issues .
I don ’ t think that means , as some have feared , that China will invade Taiwan—the risk is still so high , and the chance of strategic surprise is basically zero .
But smaller moves are possible , such as seizing outlying Taiwanese islands or renewed aggression against competitors in the South China Sea .
Giant Ant stepped on .
The big story in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. elections but instead the authorities ’ sudden backstabbing of Jack Ma—the entrepreneur who built the $ 500 billion Alibaba Group .
Its spinoff Ant Group , focused on financial technology , was due to launch the biggest IPO in history when it debuted on the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges this week .
But the Chinese authorities intervened at the last minute citing “ major issues , ” summoning Ma in for talks .
Ma has always been keenly aware of the dangers of his own success under a government that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ master businessman with an impish charisma and is highly popular among the public .
But he is usually careful not to overstep lines and to show some obsequiousness .
He has received party plaudits as a result , though there were rumors that the authorities had forced him out of his chairmanship in 2018 .
This time , Ma ’ s mistake seems to be a speech on Oct. 25 that denigrated financial regulators and called the country ’ s banks “ pawn shops.
” Most analysts in China hold severe reservations about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t express them in public .
But Ma ’ s candor put him and his company in the crosshairs , offering another demonstration that President Xi Jinping ’ s China brooks no criticism , even from its once-favored sons .
As a result , $ 3 billion has been knocked off Ma ’ s own net worth , and Ant Group is likely to face close scrutiny .
That isn ’ t necessarily a bad thing : Chinese financial technology has run far ahead of regulators , leading to problems in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for innovation and independence in the business sector .
Australia punished , again .
The relationship between Canberra and Beijing hit another new low this week , after China effectively imposed tens of billions of dollars in trade curbs on wine , barley , sugar , and other goods—but wouldn ’ t admit to them .
Imposing unofficial boycotts and increased costs is part of Beijing ’ s playbook , such as the harassment of South Korean firms after the decision to install a U.S. missile-defense system there .
Such use of state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t likely to move the Chinese government .
Uighur monitoring .
Software developed by Dahua , one of China ’ s biggest video firms , has been found by foreign engineers to contain instructions to track Uighurs , targeted in a campaign of cultural genocide in Xinjiang .
Similar code was found last year in the products of Hikvision , Dahua ’ s main competitor .
Technological tools , including predictive analytics that single out Uighurs as likely to commit crimes , are a major part of repression and mass detention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up by local villagers , politicians in Nepal allege that China has sliced off more than 150 hectares of Nepalese land as part of ongoing maneuvers for a military advantage over India in the Himalayas .
China denies the claims .
Nepal is delicately poised between India—its traditional patron , which has imposed devastating blockades on the country in the past—and an increasingly powerful China .
This year , the region has seen bloody clashes between India and China , with the control of strategic heights a priority .
Hong Kong democrats arrested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposition continues .
The latest victims are seven pro-democracy lawmakers , arrested after fighting in the legislature last year .
Activists continue to be detained on a nearly daily basis , and the government is increasingly sending signals that even emigrating from Hong Kong is treasonous as it faces the possibility of a mass exodus by British National ( Overseas ) passport holders .
Studentpocalypse .
New numbers confirm the devastating decline of Chinese student numbers in the United States as a result of the pandemic and Trump ’ s visa policies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the last decade despite repeated warnings that overdependence on Chinese students could cause a crisis if politics went sour .
But no one expected things to get quite this bad .
Remote learning , meanwhile , leaves students studying sensitive topics from home in China in danger .
China ’ s Good War : How World War II Is Shaping a New Nationalism , by Rana Mitter In this new book on China ’ s historiography of World War II and its place in Xi ’ s new order , University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once underplayed the war , but it has now become a keystone of its claims to legitimacy and to regional hegemony .
It also could offer a path to reconciliation with Taiwan—since the Taiwanese state ’ s founding Kuomintang did most of the actual fighting against the Japanese—but that idea is rejected by the Taiwanese themselves .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: China is unperturbed as the U.S. presidential election draws to a nail-biting finish, Beijing interferes with Ant Group’s major IPO , and Nepal alleges China is threatening its territory.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: China is unperturbed as the U.S. presidential election draws to a nail-biting finish, Beijing interferes with Ant Group’s major IPO, and Nepal alleges China is threatening its territory.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
China Waits, but Not Nervously
The U.S. presidential election is drawing to a nail-biting finish—one that may take days or weeks to fully resolve. But both Chinese leaders and the Chinese public are unperturbed: The winner simply isn’t that important to Beijing, which projects long-term U.S. decline and Chinese success in the future. That both U.S. parties now share a hard-line position on China reinforces the country’s relative indifference to the electoral result—although President Donald Trump’s stance is one of extremist ideologies mollified by business interests and Joe Biden’s is a product of former doves pushed into hawkishness by Beijing’s actions.
As Tracy Wen Liu noted on FP’s live election page, the Chinese public is largely pro-Trump because they see him as granting China the time and credibility needed for geopolitical dominance. More than anything else, this vision turns on the U.S. mishandling of COVID-19 (and China’s success at curbing the spread of infections). Weekly U.S. deaths are now often more than China’s entire official death total from the pandemic.
But the Chinese authorities have been very cautious about U.S. election coverage, both out of discomfort with covering democratic elections—in case anyone gets ideas—and out of fears that commentary could be seen as state endorsement of a particular candidate.
The real danger may come if election disputes drag on, convincing Beijing that domestic concerns will distract the United States from overseas issues. I don’t think that means, as some have feared, that China will invade Taiwan—the risk is still so high, and the chance of strategic surprise is basically zero. But smaller moves are possible, such as seizing outlying Taiwanese islands or renewed aggression against competitors in the South China Sea.
Tech and Business
Giant Ant stepped on. The big story in China this week isn’t the U.S. elections but instead the authorities’ sudden backstabbing of Jack Ma—the entrepreneur who built the $500 billion Alibaba Group. Its spinoff Ant Group, focused on financial technology, was due to launch the biggest IPO in history when it debuted on the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges this week. But the Chinese authorities intervened at the last minute citing “major issues,” summoning Ma in for talks.
Ma has always been keenly aware of the dangers of his own success under a government that fears potential rivals. He is a master businessman with an impish charisma and is highly popular among the public. But he is usually careful not to overstep lines and to show some obsequiousness. He has received party plaudits as a result, though there were rumors that the authorities had forced him out of his chairmanship in 2018.
This time, Ma’s mistake seems to be a speech on Oct. 25 that denigrated financial regulators and called the country’s banks “pawn shops.” Most analysts in China hold severe reservations about the banking system, even if they don’t express them in public. But Ma’s candor put him and his company in the crosshairs, offering another demonstration that President Xi Jinping’s China brooks no criticism, even from its once-favored sons.
As a result, $3 billion has been knocked off Ma’s own net worth, and Ant Group is likely to face close scrutiny. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing: Chinese financial technology has run far ahead of regulators, leading to problems in the past. But it bodes ill for innovation and independence in the business sector.
Australia punished, again. The relationship between Canberra and Beijing hit another new low this week, after China effectively imposed tens of billions of dollars in trade curbs on wine, barley, sugar, and other goods—but wouldn’t admit to them. Imposing unofficial boycotts and increased costs is part of Beijing’s playbook, such as the harassment of South Korean firms after the decision to install a U.S. missile-defense system there. Such use of state power violates trade rules, but complaints aren’t likely to move the Chinese government.
Uighur monitoring. Software developed by Dahua, one of China’s biggest video firms, has been found by foreign engineers to contain instructions to track Uighurs, targeted in a campaign of cultural genocide in Xinjiang. Similar code was found last year in the products of Hikvision, Dahua’s main competitor. Technological tools, including predictive analytics that single out Uighurs as likely to commit crimes, are a major part of repression and mass detention in Xinjiang.
What We’re Following
Contested territory. Backed up by local villagers, politicians in Nepal allege that China has sliced off more than 150 hectares of Nepalese land as part of ongoing maneuvers for a military advantage over India in the Himalayas. China denies the claims. Nepal is delicately poised between India—its traditional patron, which has imposed devastating blockades on the country in the past—and an increasingly powerful China. This year, the region has seen bloody clashes between India and China, with the control of strategic heights a priority.
Hong Kong democrats arrested. The crackdown on the Hong Kong opposition continues. The latest victims are seven pro-democracy lawmakers, arrested after fighting in the legislature last year. Activists continue to be detained on a nearly daily basis, and the government is increasingly sending signals that even emigrating from Hong Kong is treasonous as it faces the possibility of a mass exodus by British National (Overseas) passport holders.
Studentpocalypse. New numbers confirm the devastating decline of Chinese student numbers in the United States as a result of the pandemic and Trump’s visa policies. U.S. universities dove into the Chinese market in the last decade despite repeated warnings that overdependence on Chinese students could cause a crisis if politics went sour. But no one expected things to get quite this bad. Remote learning, meanwhile, leaves students studying sensitive topics from home in China in danger.
What We’re Reading China's Good War: How World War II Is Shaping a New Nationalism, Rana Mitter, Harvard University Press, .95, September 2020
China’s Good War: How World War II Is Shaping a New Nationalism, by Rana Mitter
In this new book on China’s historiography of World War II and its place in Xi’s new order, University of Oxford lecturer Rana Mitter explains how Beijing once underplayed the war, but it has now become a keystone of its claims to legitimacy and to regional hegemony. It also could offer a path to reconciliation with Taiwan—since the Taiwanese state’s founding Kuomintang did most of the actual fighting against the Japanese—but that idea is rejected by the Taiwanese themselves.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Contested Elections Put the United States in Dubious Company

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
The situation seems straightforward : Since one of the candidates for president has won a majority , the losing candidate should concede .
But that doesn ’ t happen ; instead , he blames his defeat on vote manipulation and hacked voting equipment and calls on his supporters to protest .
Clashes erupt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you guessed Kenya ’ s 2017 presidential elections , you ’ d be correct .
But the United States now seems perilously close to a similar scenario , and it ’ s one most seen in much younger democracies .
“ We were getting ready to win this election .
Frankly , we did win this election , ” U.S. President Donald Trump declared to supporters on election night , long before all votes had been counted .
But , he added , just as he was winning , “ all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is a major fraud on our nation.
” Trump ’ s announcement that he would take the case all the way to the Supreme Court—should Democratic challenger Joe Biden be declared the winner—puts him in the company of a rather small group of contestants who have likewise refused to concede .
In the United States , of course , Democratic nominee Al Gore turned to the Supreme Court in 2000 hoping for a recount of Florida ’ s votes , which had resulted in a statistical tie .
But as for obvious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the elections , the pool is somewhat more dubious : Kenya ’ s Raila Odinga in 2017 and Gambia ’ s longtime ruler Yahya Jammeh the year before , which also saw election contender Jean Ping refuse to concede in Gabon ’ s presidential elections .
At the moment , Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is still maintaining that she won Belarus ’ s presidential election this August , which official counts awarded to President Aleksandr Lukashenko .
( Tikhanovskaya ’ s claim that the election was unfair is supported by the European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , most election result disputes take place in developing democracies .
“ [ T ] he most severe risks occur in fragile states and in transitional contests held during peace-building operations , ” explained the political scientists Pippa Norris , Richard Frank , and Ferran Martínez i Coma in a 2014 paper .
That makes some sense : With low trust in the system and immature and untested institutions , there ’ s less reason for the losing side to believe that it will have another fair bite at the apple .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voter trust in the system , and independent institutions that organize the elections and report the result , the losing side understands that it is likely in its best interest to accept defeat and start organizing for the next round of voting .
Still , “ democracies are not immune from electoral flaws , ” warned the political scientists , citing the 2000 U.S. presidential race as an example .
And the United States may be particularly vulnerable because its decentralized voting system—and the fact that unlike many other Western countries , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ register nor a comprehensive voter roll—is imperfect .
Add to that bitter partisan battles , and America ’ s democracy is under severe strain .
Should Trump lose and maintain that it ’ s the result of “ major fraud , ” he will drag the United States further into questionable company .
This election has already done strange things to the country .
“ We are deeply concerned by reports of election irregularities , ” tweeted Secretary of State Mike Pompeo the day before the U.S. election .
He was referring to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one could be forgiven for being unsure which country he meant .

The situation seems straightforward: Since one of the candidates for president has won a majority, the losing candidate should concede. But that doesn’t happen; instead, he blames his defeat on vote manipulation and hacked voting equipment and calls on his supporters to protest. Clashes erupt between the two candidates’ supporters. If you guessed Kenya’s 2017 presidential elections , you’d be correct. But the United States now seems perilously close to a similar scenario, and it’s one most seen in much younger democracies.
The situation seems straightforward: Since one of the candidates for president has won a majority, the losing candidate should concede. But that doesn’t happen; instead, he blames his defeat on vote manipulation and hacked voting equipment and calls on his supporters to protest. Clashes erupt between the two candidates’ supporters. If you guessed Kenya’s 2017 presidential elections, you’d be correct. But the United States now seems perilously close to a similar scenario, and it’s one most seen in much younger democracies.
“We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election,” U.S. President Donald Trump declared to supporters on election night, long before all votes had been counted. But, he added, just as he was winning, “all of a sudden everything just stopped. … This is a major fraud on our nation.” Trump’s announcement that he would take the case all the way to the Supreme Court—should Democratic challenger Joe Biden be declared the winner—puts him in the company of a rather small group of contestants who have likewise refused to concede.
In the United States, of course, Democratic nominee Al Gore turned to the Supreme Court in 2000 hoping for a recount of Florida’s votes, which had resulted in a statistical tie. But as for obvious losers who have disputed the validity of the elections, the pool is somewhat more dubious: Kenya’s Raila Odinga in 2017 and Gambia’s longtime ruler Yahya Jammeh the year before, which also saw election contender Jean Ping refuse to concede in Gabon’s presidential elections. At the moment, Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is still maintaining that she won Belarus’s presidential election this August, which official counts awarded to President Aleksandr Lukashenko. (Tikhanovskaya’s claim that the election was unfair is supported by the European Union, among others.)
Indeed, most election result disputes take place in developing democracies. “[T]he most severe risks occur in fragile states and in transitional contests held during peace-building operations,” explained the political scientists Pippa Norris, Richard Frank, and Ferran Martínez i Coma in a 2014 paper. That makes some sense: With low trust in the system and immature and untested institutions, there’s less reason for the losing side to believe that it will have another fair bite at the apple. In mature democracies, with long-established parties, voter trust in the system, and independent institutions that organize the elections and report the result, the losing side understands that it is likely in its best interest to accept defeat and start organizing for the next round of voting.
Still, “democracies are not immune from electoral flaws,” warned the political scientists, citing the 2000 U.S. presidential race as an example. And the United States may be particularly vulnerable because its decentralized voting system—and the fact that unlike many other Western countries, the United States has neither a national population register nor a comprehensive voter roll—is imperfect. Add to that bitter partisan battles, and America’s democracy is under severe strain.
Should Trump lose and maintain that it’s the result of “major fraud,” he will drag the United States further into questionable company. This election has already done strange things to the country. “We are deeply concerned by reports of election irregularities,” tweeted Secretary of State Mike Pompeo the day before the U.S. election. He was referring to Tanzania. But for a moment, one could be forgiven for being unsure which country he meant.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Note to U.S. Allies: America Will Remain Divided and Frustrating

Note to U.S .
Allies : America Will Remain Divided and Frustrating This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Let ’ s start with a positive note : It is a good thing that we do not know the outcome of U.S. elections before they happen .
Democracy entails uncertainty—and that uncertainty demands a measure of humility from all participants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alike .
Now for a more sobering take : When all is said and done , it seems most likely that President Donald Trump will lose his bid for reelection—but he will still have received more votes than four years ago , despite a reckless and corrupt administration that has badly mismanaged a pandemic and seen a growing economy transform into a dire recession .
For the United States ’ friends overseas who have wondered over the last four years whether the 2016 election was fluke : It was not .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a divided country grappling with divided responses to its past and to the challenges of the 21st century .
The outcome of Tuesday ’ s election that will take longest for the United States ’ partners overseas to process is the fact that Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell looks poised to retain control of the U.S. Senate .
( While there are races left to be called , this is the most likely scenario for now . )
Both domestically and internationally , the Joe Biden presidency that would have been possible if Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very different than the one that he now looks likely to lead .
On a practical level , it will take longer to fill senior administration posts that require Senate confirmation .
But , more significantly , the legislative agenda to lift the United States out of the current economic and public health crisis , strengthen its democracy , and tackle the existential challenge of climate change has become much , much more difficult to advance .
On climate change in particular , the prospect of the kind of significant investment needed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ targets is greatly diminished .
For U.S. allies and partners around the world , the United States will stop being an at times gratuitous antagonist , and the Biden-Kamala Harris administration will reinvigorate U.S. diplomacy , but Washington will remain a frustrating partner on important issues .
At a deeper level , the loss of innocence that happened in 2016 remains .
Though the votes are still being counted , the 2020 election looks likely to produce a victory for Biden and Harris , but it is not the full moral victory that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for .
The task of making the case for democratic values , of demonstrating that democracies can deliver , and of pushing back against demagogues and authoritarians is not one that can be left to the United States alone .
Democracies on other continents need to step up—for their own interests and for the cause of democracy itself .

Let’s start with a positive note: It is a good thing that we do not know the outcome of U.S. elections before they happen. Democracy entails uncertainty—and that uncertainty demands a measure of humility from all participants in an election, winners and losers alike.
Let’s start with a positive note: It is a good thing that we do not know the outcome of U.S. elections before they happen. Democracy entails uncertainty—and that uncertainty demands a measure of humility from all participants in an election, winners and losers alike.
Now for a more sobering take: When all is said and done, it seems most likely that President Donald Trump will lose his bid for reelection—but he will still have received more votes than four years ago, despite a reckless and corrupt administration that has badly mismanaged a pandemic and seen a growing economy transform into a dire recession. For the United States’ friends overseas who have wondered over the last four years whether the 2016 election was fluke: It was not. It was a reflection of what was and is a divided country grappling with divided responses to its past and to the challenges of the 21st century.
The outcome of Tuesday’s election that will take longest for the United States’ partners overseas to process is the fact that Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell looks poised to retain control of the U.S. Senate. (While there are races left to be called, this is the most likely scenario for now.) Both domestically and internationally, the Joe Biden presidency that would have been possible if Democrats had won the Senate would have been very different than the one that he now looks likely to lead.
On a practical level, it will take longer to fill senior administration posts that require Senate confirmation. But, more significantly, the legislative agenda to lift the United States out of the current economic and public health crisis, strengthen its democracy, and tackle the existential challenge of climate change has become much, much more difficult to advance. On climate change in particular, the prospect of the kind of significant investment needed to transform the U.S. economy and meet emissions targets is greatly diminished. For U.S. allies and partners around the world, the United States will stop being an at times gratuitous antagonist, and the Biden-Kamala Harris administration will reinvigorate U.S. diplomacy, but Washington will remain a frustrating partner on important issues.
At a deeper level, the loss of innocence that happened in 2016 remains. Though the votes are still being counted, the 2020 election looks likely to produce a victory for Biden and Harris, but it is not the full moral victory that I and many other Democrats had hoped for. The task of making the case for democratic values, of demonstrating that democracies can deliver, and of pushing back against demagogues and authoritarians is not one that can be left to the United States alone. Democracies on other continents need to step up—for their own interests and for the cause of democracy itself.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Dear Americans: The Election Party Was Bad, but the Hangover Will Be Worse

Dear Americans : The Election Party Was Bad , but the Hangover Will Be Worse This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
A highly polarized electorate split almost neatly in half .
A controversial , corruption-tainted incumbent fighting to maintain his grip on power .
An election night that continues into the morning with no clear result—followed by a weekslong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held three hotly contested election campaigns over 15 months , from December 2018 to March of this year .
Not one was a simple affair .
In all three campaigns , Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , the long-serving incumbent , failed to win an outright parliamentary majority for his Likud party and its right-wing allies .
But neither did his main rival , Benny Gantz , of the centrist Blue and White party .
Backroom machinations dragged on for weeks as both sides attempted , in vain , to cobble together a working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parliamentary system is more convoluted than the winner-take-all firehose of America ’ s Electoral College , some tips from the Israeli experience are applicable as the United States—along with the entire world—awaits the winner of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden .
Gantz delivered a rousing one in April 2019 after exit polls showed his Blue and White party leading Likud in the vote count .
But he became a laughingstock hours later when the actual results made clear he had no viable path to the premiership .
Eleven months later , Netanyahu committed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of voting in March of this year , he crowed about his “ great victory.
” In fact , Netanyahu managed to secure support from only a minority of parliament members , forcing him to offer his rival—the very same Gantz—a power-sharing agreement .
Be skeptical when politicians cry foul .
In functioning democracies , irregularities are the exception , not the norm .
In the April 2019 ballot , the pro-settler New Right party failed to pass the electoral threshold for entering parliament , falling short by 1,400 votes out of more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results deprived Netanyahu ’ s right-wing bloc of three to four seats and a parliamentary majority .
The New Right alleged irregularities and moved for a recount .
Party chief Naftali Bennett recruited a battalion of volunteers to scour election warehouses for lost ballots , but to no avail .
After a week he conceded defeat .
“ We have found irregularities in the polls and beyond , but they do not , in and of themselves , nullify all the election results , ” he said .
“ At this stage we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier this year , Netanyahu and his Likud party refused to certify the results after suing ( unsuccessfully ) to have every poll station in the country recanvassed .
But the Central Elections Committee , headed by a Supreme Court justice , declared the vote had been conducted fairly .
The post-election process in Israel often takes weeks or longer to run its course—from the ballot counting , to the ceremonial consultation process between the president and the heads of the political parties , and up to the inevitable horse-trading required to strike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the horse-trading—who leads it and how long it takes—is governed by law .
In last year ’ s second election , in September , the process went on for three months and ended inconclusively—forcing Israel into yet another campaign .
Americans should be thankful that a repeat election isn ’ t an option in the U.S. electoral process .
Imagine going through it all again , and yet again , only to get the same results .
When Israel ’ s third election also ended in deadlock , Netanyahu and Gantz struck a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to serve as prime minister for half of the three-year term .
One journalist at the Times of Israel , Raphael Ahren , jokingly advised Americans to at least consider the approach .
“ Yalla , rotation .
Trump goes first for 24 months , Biden will be Alternate President .
Then they switch , ” he tweeted .

A highly polarized electorate split almost neatly in half. A controversial, corruption-tainted incumbent fighting to maintain his grip on power. An election night that continues into the morning with no clear result—followed by a weekslong process to determine the outcome.
A highly polarized electorate split almost neatly in half. A controversial, corruption-tainted incumbent fighting to maintain his grip on power. An election night that continues into the morning with no clear result—followed by a weekslong process to determine the outcome.
Dear America: Welcome to Israel’s reality.
Israel held three hotly contested election campaigns over 15 months, from December 2018 to March of this year. Not one was a simple affair.
In all three campaigns, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the long-serving incumbent, failed to win an outright parliamentary majority for his Likud party and its right-wing allies. But neither did his main rival, Benny Gantz, of the centrist Blue and White party. Backroom machinations dragged on for weeks as both sides attempted, in vain, to cobble together a working coalition government.
While Israel’s parliamentary system is more convoluted than the winner-take-all firehose of America’s Electoral College, some tips from the Israeli experience are applicable as the United States—along with the entire world—awaits the winner of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden.
Ignore victory speeches. In close elections, they’re meaningless.
Gantz delivered a rousing one in April 2019 after exit polls showed his Blue and White party leading Likud in the vote count. But he became a laughingstock hours later when the actual results made clear he had no viable path to the premiership.
Eleven months later, Netanyahu committed a similar blunder. Following a day of voting in March of this year, he crowed about his “great victory.” In fact, Netanyahu managed to secure support from only a minority of parliament members, forcing him to offer his rival—the very same Gantz—a power-sharing agreement.
Be skeptical when politicians cry foul. In functioning democracies, irregularities are the exception, not the norm.
In the April 2019 ballot, the pro-settler New Right party failed to pass the electoral threshold for entering parliament, falling short by 1,400 votes out of more than 4 million cast nationally. The results deprived Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc of three to four seats and a parliamentary majority.
The New Right alleged irregularities and moved for a recount. Party chief Naftali Bennett recruited a battalion of volunteers to scour election warehouses for lost ballots, but to no avail. After a week he conceded defeat. “We have found irregularities in the polls and beyond, but they do not, in and of themselves, nullify all the election results,” he said. “At this stage we are moving on.”
In the ballot earlier this year, Netanyahu and his Likud party refused to certify the results after suing (unsuccessfully) to have every poll station in the country recanvassed. But the Central Elections Committee, headed by a Supreme Court justice, declared the vote had been conducted fairly.
Be Patient. Democracy takes time.
The post-election process in Israel often takes weeks or longer to run its course—from the ballot counting, to the ceremonial consultation process between the president and the heads of the political parties, and up to the inevitable horse-trading required to strike a coalition deal.
In fact, the horse-trading—who leads it and how long it takes—is governed by law. In last year’s second election, in September, the process went on for three months and ended inconclusively—forcing Israel into yet another campaign. Americans should be thankful that a repeat election isn’t an option in the U.S. electoral process. Imagine going through it all again, and yet again, only to get the same results.
When Israel’s third election also ended in deadlock, Netanyahu and Gantz struck a rotation agreement, with each leader agreeing to serve as prime minister for half of the three-year term. One journalist at the Times of Israel, Raphael Ahren, jokingly advised Americans to at least consider the approach. “Yalla, rotation. Trump goes first for 24 months, Biden will be Alternate President. Then they switch,” he tweeted.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Both Parties Are Heading Toward a Reckoning

Both Parties Are Heading Toward a Reckoning This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As the results of the U.S. election become clearer throughout the day , they ’ re looking more and more like a narrow victory for Democrat Joe Biden with a closely divided Senate .
Hardly the mandate Democrats were hoping for .
In the best-case scenario @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face at least another two years ( and maybe longer ) of gridlock and intense hyperpartisan fighting in Washington .
Back in September , I wrote in these pages that the 2020s would be a decade of major political evolution .
My prediction was based on history .
Every 30 to 40 years , the party system has gone through a significant reshuffling , a realignment that shifted the balance of power and the core issues of politics , as internal party tensions became overbearing and new problems to address arose .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years or so , the United States has also gone through an era of major political reform , in which the fundamental rules of democracy shifted in response to public dissatisfaction with institutions .
And I noted that both of these cycles were coming due for an era of upheaval in the 2020s .
Of course , history is not clockwork .
There ’ s no guarantee the 2020s will follow the pattern .
And the likely outcome of this election suggests more stagnation than immediate change .
More and more Americans feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system works and are exhausted by the trench warfare of national politics .
The stakes are higher now , with the economy uncertain , the pandemic still raging , and climate change continuing to grow more severe and destructive .
The pressure will continue to build , and hyperpartisan polarization will continue to intensify , fueling anger , distrust , and dysfunction .
At a certain point , something has to give .
It is impossible to say what or how , exactly , but there ’ s one thing we do know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing democracy is broken .
There are alternatives .
Some include electoral reforms that would expand the number of parties , thus breaking the zero-sum binary that is sowing division and hatred .
New parties would offer a path for new coalitions to form , scrambling today ’ s escalating hyperpartisan warfare .
Maybe that ’ s the answer , maybe there ’ s another one .
But all signals point to turbulence ahead , and if the United States doesn ’ t have a plan , chaos will win .

As the results of the U.S. election become clearer throughout the day, they’re looking more and more like a narrow victory for Democrat Joe Biden with a closely divided Senate. Hardly the mandate Democrats were hoping for. In the best-case scenario, it seems, they’ll face at least another two years (and maybe longer) of gridlock and intense hyperpartisan fighting in Washington.
As the results of the U.S. election become clearer throughout the day, they’re looking more and more like a narrow victory for Democrat Joe Biden with a closely divided Senate. Hardly the mandate Democrats were hoping for. In the best-case scenario, it seems, they’ll face at least another two years (and maybe longer) of gridlock and intense hyperpartisan fighting in Washington.
Back in September, I wrote in these pages that the 2020s would be a decade of major political evolution. My prediction was based on history. Every 30 to 40 years, the party system has gone through a significant reshuffling, a realignment that shifted the balance of power and the core issues of politics, as internal party tensions became overbearing and new problems to address arose. At the same time, around every 60 years or so, the United States has also gone through an era of major political reform, in which the fundamental rules of democracy shifted in response to public dissatisfaction with institutions. And I noted that both of these cycles were coming due for an era of upheaval in the 2020s.
Of course, history is not clockwork. There’s no guarantee the 2020s will follow the pattern. And the likely outcome of this election suggests more stagnation than immediate change. More and more Americans feel deeply dissatisfied with how the U.S. political system works and are exhausted by the trench warfare of national politics. The stakes are higher now, with the economy uncertain, the pandemic still raging, and climate change continuing to grow more severe and destructive. The pressure will continue to build, and hyperpartisan polarization will continue to intensify, fueling anger, distrust, and dysfunction.
At a certain point, something has to give. It is impossible to say what or how, exactly, but there’s one thing we do know: The way the United States is doing democracy is broken. There are alternatives. Some include electoral reforms that would expand the number of parties, thus breaking the zero-sum binary that is sowing division and hatred. New parties would offer a path for new coalitions to form, scrambling today’s escalating hyperpartisan warfare. Maybe that’s the answer, maybe there’s another one. But all signals point to turbulence ahead, and if the United States doesn’t have a plan, chaos will win.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--How the World Is Covering Trump’s Premature Victory Lap

How the World Is Covering Trump ’ s Premature Victory Lap This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
U.S. President Donald Trump , in his campaign event at the White House in the early hours of Wednesday morning , sought to freeze the U.S. election in its tracks , declaring the counting of ballots to be “ fraud.
” As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day , many Americans have their bleary eyes glued to Electoral College maps , where the race is neck and neck , with key battleground states like Pennsylvania not likely to have full returns until Friday .
But as it turns out , international readers are also glued to the refresh button .
Below , we ’ ve rounded up some of the morning ’ s leading headlines from newspapers and magazines around the world .
United Kingdom : Although the Times of London didn ’ t evaluate Trump ’ s claims in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims victory and demands end to vote count ” —the paper clarified in the article that the race is “ still wide open ” in key states .
The claims , the Times ’ U.S. editor and Washington correspondent reported , amounted to a “ baseless allegation.
” Meanwhile , the front page of the tabloid Daily Mail , Britain ’ s highest-circulation paper , juxtaposed Biden ’ s growing lead in Michigan and Wisconsin with Trump ’ s unfounded allegations of “ surprise ballot dumps.
” Ireland : “ Fintan O ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US president launched an attempted coup , ” reads the front page of the Irish Times .
O ’ Toole , a columnist at the paper , wrote that “ Close to half of Americans voted for him in the full knowledge that he was going to do it.
” The irony of this , given incoming election results , is that Trump “ behaved like an autocrat even when it was quite possible that he could still win by being a democrat , ” O ’ Toole wrote .
Elsewhere in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ despite Trump ’ s claims of victory and fraud , the election is “ too close to call.
” Germany : The German newsmagazine Der Spiegel prefaced its coverage of Tuesday ’ s U.S. presidential election—which it called “ an attack on the nerves ” —with two caveats .
First , the contest ’ s results won ’ t be clear for a while .
Second , and perhaps more jarring for a readership that gives Trump low marks , Spiegel reported that more U.S. voters have already cast their ballots for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The magazine added that this trend follows an overall uptick in voter turnout , conceding that “ at least that is good news.
” By contrast , the Bild tabloid—Germany ’ s most widely read publication—went the clickbait route , quoting Trump ’ s unfounded claim that his lead “ magically disappeared ” and describing the election as a “ thriller.
” It also pasted a photo of the controversial new Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett to its homepage , with an all-caps title asking , “ WILL SHE DECIDE THE ELECTION @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump and Joe Biden neck and neck , the United States is tearing itself apart , ” read the front page of Le Monde on Wednesday morning .
The paper ’ s correspondent in Washington , favoring straightforward analysis , wrote that the race saw “ echoes ” of 2016 , with the country ’ s fate resting on a handful of states .
The main difference from four years ago , Le Monde reported , is the delay in the vote count .
Spain : El País , read widely throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States is facing an “ institutional crisis ” on its front page .
The paper ’ s lead election story focuses primarily on Trump ’ s accusations of fraud and assertions that he won , even though key swing states are still counting votes .
“ Election night has entered the most-feared scenario , ” the early morning Wednesday story begins , quoting Trump at length throughout .
Lebanon : On the morning after the U.S. presidential election , Lebanon ’ s Daily Star said , “ the rest of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ referenced Trump ’ s “ pre-emptive declaration of victory ” overnight , citing civil rights groups that view the move as “ trampling of long-standing democratic norms.
” After reviewing international leaders ’ mixed reactions to the too-close-to-call election , the Star rehashed Bush v. Gore , referencing Trump ’ s promises to bring the 2020 election before the U.S. Supreme Court .
Japan : As the presidential contest narrows , the English-language Japan Times notes that the U.S.-Japan relationship hangs in the balance—with the Japanese government yet to comment on the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the “ political crisis ” in the United States sends a message of uncertainty to its allies .
The results of the election are likely to shape new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga ’ s first visit to the United States as Japan ’ s leader , the paper reports .
Singapore : “ Too close to call , Biden bats away Trump victory claim , ” reads the front page of the Straits Times , Singapore ’ s major English-language daily , which also points to the president ’ s lack of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ press conference .
The paper ’ s U.S. correspondent notes the potential for online misinformation in the days ahead as Biden calls for patience with counting mail ballots .
Australia : The Sydney Morning Herald ’ s North America correspondent called Trump ’ s premature declaration of victory a “ dark , disturbing moment in American history ” in a dispatch from Washington , raising concerns about potential unrest and the integrity of U.S. democratic institutions over the next few days .
“ A nation with widespread gun ownership , a polarised population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president has to muddle its way through as all the votes are counted , ” he reports .

Chloe Hadavas, Audrey Wilson and Allison Meakem

U.S. President Donald Trump, in his campaign event at the White House in the early hours of Wednesday morning, sought to freeze the U.S. election in its tracks, declaring the counting of ballots to be “fraud.” As the ongoing vote count enters its second day, many Americans have their bleary eyes glued to Electoral College maps, where the race is neck and neck, with key battleground states like Pennsylvania not likely to have full returns until Friday. But as it turns out, international readers are also glued to the refresh button. Below, we’ve rounded up some of the morning’s leading headlines from newspapers and magazines around the world.
U.S. President Donald Trump, in his campaign event at the White House in the early hours of Wednesday morning, sought to freeze the U.S. election in its tracks, declaring the counting of ballots to be “fraud.” As the ongoing vote count enters its second day, many Americans have their bleary eyes glued to Electoral College maps, where the race is neck and neck, with key battleground states like Pennsylvania not likely to have full returns until Friday. But as it turns out, international readers are also glued to the refresh button. Below, we’ve rounded up some of the morning’s leading headlines from newspapers and magazines around the world.
United Kingdom: Although the Times of London didn’t evaluate Trump’s claims in a headline on Wednesday morning—“Trump claims victory and demands end to vote count”—the paper clarified in the article that the race is “still wide open” in key states. The claims, the Times’ U.S. editor and Washington correspondent reported, amounted to a “baseless allegation.” Meanwhile, the front page of the tabloid Daily Mail, Britain’s highest-circulation paper, juxtaposed Biden’s growing lead in Michigan and Wisconsin with Trump’s unfounded allegations of “surprise ballot dumps.”
Ireland: “Fintan O’Toole: At 2.23am today, the US president launched an attempted coup,” reads the front page of the Irish Times. O’Toole, a columnist at the paper, wrote that “Close to half of Americans voted for him in the full knowledge that he was going to do it.” The irony of this, given incoming election results, is that Trump “behaved like an autocrat even when it was quite possible that he could still win by being a democrat,” O’Toole wrote. Elsewhere in the paper, the Washington correspondent reported that despite Trump’s claims of victory and fraud, the election is “too close to call.”
Germany: The German newsmagazine Der Spiegel prefaced its coverage of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election—which it called “an attack on the nerves” —with two caveats. First, the contest’s results won’t be clear for a while. Second, and perhaps more jarring for a readership that gives Trump low marks, Spiegel reported that more U.S. voters have already cast their ballots for the Republican nominee than four years ago. The magazine added that this trend follows an overall uptick in voter turnout, conceding that “at least that is good news.”
By contrast, the Bild tabloid—Germany’s most widely read publication—went the clickbait route, quoting Trump’s unfounded claim that his lead “magically disappeared” and describing the election as a “thriller.” It also pasted a photo of the controversial new Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett to its homepage, with an all-caps title asking, “WILL SHE DECIDE THE ELECTION FOR TRUMP?”
France: “Donald Trump and Joe Biden neck and neck, the United States is tearing itself apart,” read the front page of Le Monde on Wednesday morning. The paper’s correspondent in Washington, favoring straightforward analysis, wrote that the race saw “echoes” of 2016, with the country’s fate resting on a handful of states. The main difference from four years ago, Le Monde reported, is the delay in the vote count.
Spain: El País, read widely throughout the Spanish-speaking world, declared that the United States is facing an “institutional crisis” on its front page. The paper’s lead election story focuses primarily on Trump’s accusations of fraud and assertions that he won, even though key swing states are still counting votes. “Election night has entered the most-feared scenario,” the early morning Wednesday story begins, quoting Trump at length throughout.
Lebanon: On the morning after the U.S. presidential election, Lebanon’s Daily Star said, “the rest of the world was none the wiser.” The paper referenced Trump’s “pre-emptive declaration of victory” overnight, citing civil rights groups that view the move as “trampling of long-standing democratic norms.” After reviewing international leaders’ mixed reactions to the too-close-to-call election, the Star rehashed Bush v. Gore, referencing Trump’s promises to bring the 2020 election before the U.S. Supreme Court.
Japan: As the presidential contest narrows, the English-language Japan Times notes that the U.S.-Japan relationship hangs in the balance—with the Japanese government yet to comment on the election. In Japan, concerns are rising that the “political crisis” in the United States sends a message of uncertainty to its allies. The results of the election are likely to shape new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s first visit to the United States as Japan’s leader, the paper reports.
Singapore: “Too close to call, Biden bats away Trump victory claim,” reads the front page of the Straits Times, Singapore’s major English-language daily, which also points to the president’s lack of evidence of any fraud despite his late-night press conference. The paper’s U.S. correspondent notes the potential for online misinformation in the days ahead as Biden calls for patience with counting mail ballots.
Australia: The Sydney Morning Herald’s North America correspondent called Trump’s premature declaration of victory a “dark, disturbing moment in American history” in a dispatch from Washington, raising concerns about potential unrest and the integrity of U.S. democratic institutions over the next few days. “A nation with widespread gun ownership, a polarised population, tribal media outlets and a reckless president has to muddle its way through as all the votes are counted,” he reports.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Don’t Blame the Polls

Don’t Blame the Polls

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Just like after the 2016 U.S. presidential election , American pollsters are under attack .
Back then , they failed to predict the victory of Donald Trump .
This time around , instead , Joe Biden is on course to become president with a much smaller margin of victory than originally expected .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading nationwide polls by more than 7 percentage points over incumbent President Trump , a lead that was almost three times higher the one enjoyed by Democratic Party contender Hillary Clinton four years ago .
And in the final rush of polling , Biden also managed to surpass Trump in Florida , Georgia , and Ohio—all states that , in the end , appeared to have voted for the Republican candidate .
But polls are two-sided games .
At one end , there are the pollsters , who ask the questions and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ methodologically sound way .
At the other , there are the interviewees , who are expected to answer faithfully .
Obviously , biased responses in polls skew the data , leading to inaccurate predictions .
And it is not unusual for psychology to trump statistics .
Since 2016 , pollsters have worked tirelessly to improve the quality of the underlying methodology of their surveys .
In particular , they tried to address the sampling bias that four years ago led to underestimates for turnout among specific demographic groups ( white voters in particular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s victory .
Websites like FiveThirtyEight also aggregate polls from different sources by assigning a rating to each of them , based on accuracy scores that are adjusted for the poll ’ s sample size , the performance of other polls surveying the same race , statistical biases , and other factors .
Of course , even the most statistically meticulous poll will always provide a partial view of reality .
Each choice concerning its structure is subjective and discretionary .
In the end , its accuracy will always lie within a statistical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin of error , up or down .
And this interval might become especially wide if those interviewed lie or do not respond at all .
While nobody can confidently say anything about those who might give fake responses , we know that this year undecided voters amounted to around 5 percent of Americans ahead of the vote .
That ’ s a sufficient number of people to alter the outcome of the election .
Some may have been genuinely unsure of whether to vote for Trump or Biden .
But others , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might have simply not wanted to state their preference for a polarizing figure like Trump .
In statistics , this is the so-called social desirability bias—the desire to appear to do what is perceived as the socially correct thing to do .
For similar reasons , polls might have failed to fully capture the shift of Hispanic voters toward Trump in some key states .
And that is an important lesson : Even as technology and big data keep improving the quality of the polling on the pollsters ’ side , at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ human beings , with their own psychologies , biases , and emotions .
If we forget it , we will set ourselves up for new electoral surprises every time .

Just like after the 2016 U.S. presidential election, American pollsters are under attack. Back then, they failed to predict the victory of Donald Trump. This time around, instead, Joe Biden is on course to become president with a much smaller margin of victory than originally expected. Immediately before Election Day, he was leading nationwide polls by more than 7 percentage points over incumbent President Trump, a lead that was almost three times higher the one enjoyed by Democratic Party contender Hillary Clinton four years ago. And in the final rush of polling, Biden also managed to surpass Trump in Florida, Georgia, and Ohio—all states that, in the end, appeared to have voted for the Republican candidate.
Just like after the 2016 U.S. presidential election, American pollsters are under attack. Back then, they failed to predict the victory of Donald Trump. This time around, instead, Joe Biden is on course to become president with a much smaller margin of victory than originally expected. Immediately before Election Day, he was leading nationwide polls by more than 7 percentage points over incumbent President Trump, a lead that was almost three times higher the one enjoyed by Democratic Party contender Hillary Clinton four years ago. And in the final rush of polling, Biden also managed to surpass Trump in Florida, Georgia, and Ohio—all states that, in the end, appeared to have voted for the Republican candidate.
But polls are two-sided games. At one end, there are the pollsters, who ask the questions and are responsible for designing their surveys in a methodologically sound way. At the other, there are the interviewees, who are expected to answer faithfully. Obviously, biased responses in polls skew the data, leading to inaccurate predictions. And it is not unusual for psychology to trump statistics.
Since 2016, pollsters have worked tirelessly to improve the quality of the underlying methodology of their surveys. In particular, they tried to address the sampling bias that four years ago led to underestimates for turnout among specific demographic groups (white voters in particular) who were decisive for Trump’s victory. Websites like FiveThirtyEight also aggregate polls from different sources by assigning a rating to each of them, based on accuracy scores that are adjusted for the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race, statistical biases, and other factors.
Of course, even the most statistically meticulous poll will always provide a partial view of reality. Each choice concerning its structure is subjective and discretionary. In the end, its accuracy will always lie within a statistical interval of confidence—that is, a specific margin of error, up or down.
And this interval might become especially wide if those interviewed lie or do not respond at all. While nobody can confidently say anything about those who might give fake responses, we know that this year undecided voters amounted to around 5 percent of Americans ahead of the vote. That’s a sufficient number of people to alter the outcome of the election. Some may have been genuinely unsure of whether to vote for Trump or Biden. But others, particularly moderate Republicans in affluent areas, might have simply not wanted to state their preference for a polarizing figure like Trump. In statistics, this is the so-called social desirability bias—the desire to appear to do what is perceived as the socially correct thing to do. For similar reasons, polls might have failed to fully capture the shift of Hispanic voters toward Trump in some key states.
And that is an important lesson: Even as technology and big data keep improving the quality of the polling on the pollsters’ side, at the other end the respondents will always be human beings, with their own psychologies, biases, and emotions. If we forget it, we will set ourselves up for new electoral surprises every time.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Scotland’s Pro-Independence Leaders Fret for U.S. Democracy

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
For Scotland ’ s pro-independence leaders , U.S. President Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving .
Trump remains deeply unpopular in his mother ’ s homeland .
Criticizing him—and by extension his British Brexiteer allies—is easy politics for the ruling Scottish National Party ( SNP ) .
After Trump early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ baseless allegations of electoral fraud , and threatened legal action to stop vote counts , Nicola Sturgeon , the SNP leader and Scotland ’ s first minister , expressed fears for the “ integrity ” of U.S. democracy .
“ Crucial hours and days ahead for the integrity of US democracy , ” she tweeted .
“ Let ’ s hope we start to hear the voices of Republicans who understand the importance of that.
” Over the years , Sturgeon has made no secret of her contempt for Trump , this summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to conclude ” that the U.S. president is a racist .
As America began tallying its votes , the SNP saw another opportunity to link Trump to the party ’ s real opponents : Britain ’ s pro-Brexit Conservative government and Boris Johnson .
Speaking in Westminster , Johnson declined to condemn Trump ’ s claims of “ fraud ” in the U.S. elections .
“ We don ’ t comment as a U.K. government on the democratic processes of our friends and allies , ” Johnson said .
The SNP ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as did Johnson ’ s English opponents .
“ With his reputation as ‘ Britain ’ s Trump , ’ Boris Johnson has a particular duty to speak out and distance himself from his friend ’ s false claims of major fraud and unsupported declarations of victory before the votes have been counted , ” said Ian Blackford , the SNP leader in Westminster .

For Scotland’s pro-independence leaders, U.S. President Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.
For Scotland’s pro-independence leaders, U.S. President Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.
Trump remains deeply unpopular in his mother’s homeland. Criticizing him—and by extension his British Brexiteer allies—is easy politics for the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP). After Trump early on Wednesday prematurely claimed victory, made baseless allegations of electoral fraud, and threatened legal action to stop vote counts, Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, expressed fears for the “integrity” of U.S. democracy.
“Crucial hours and days ahead for the integrity of US democracy,” she tweeted. “Let’s hope we start to hear the voices of Republicans who understand the importance of that.”
Over the years, Sturgeon has made no secret of her contempt for Trump, this summer saying it is sometimes “hard not to conclude” that the U.S. president is a racist. As America began tallying its votes, the SNP saw another opportunity to link Trump to the party’s real opponents: Britain’s pro-Brexit Conservative government and Boris Johnson.
Speaking in Westminster, Johnson declined to condemn Trump’s claims of “fraud” in the U.S. elections. “We don’t comment as a U.K. government on the democratic processes of our friends and allies,” Johnson said. The SNP’s leader in Westminster jumped on that remark, as did Johnson’s English opponents.
“With his reputation as ‘Britain’s Trump,’ Boris Johnson has a particular duty to speak out and distance himself from his friend’s false claims of major fraud and unsupported declarations of victory before the votes have been counted,” said Ian Blackford, the SNP leader in Westminster.
“The fact that he won’t speaks volumes.”


foreignpolicy--2020-11-06--As Count Continues, Trump Makes Baseless Claims of Voter Fraud While Biden Appeals for Calm

As Count Continues , Trump Makes Baseless Claims of Voter Fraud While Biden Appeals for Calm This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
President Donald Trump took to the White House podium Thursday night to make baseless allegations that Democrats were committing massive voter fraud with mail-in ballots in order to win the presidential election .
The president ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fan the flames of partisan rancor and undermine the integrity of the 2020 presidential election—particularly in the eyes of his most vocal supporters .
They also carried the potential to trigger violence across the country .
Though the claims were presented without evidence and seemed specious , some might set the stage for legal and political battles in the remaining swing states that will determine the ultimate result .
Election observers have found no pattern of irregularities with the counting of the mail-in ballots so far .
“ If you count the legal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump said , seeming to suggest that all mail-in ballots received or counted after Election Day were invalid .
That contradicted public voting data released by states and prompted several news outlets to quickly cut away to correct the record .
“ If you count the illegal votes , they can try to steal the election from us , ” Trump added .
He did not take questions from the media .
Trump ’ s unprecedented speech came as Joe Biden continued to cut into the president ’ s lead in Pennsylvania on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Philadelphia and surrounding areas were breaking toward the former vice president at numbers greater than 70 percent , according to state officials .
Election workers in Philadelphia , an important Democratic stronghold within the state , are counting ballots while being overseen by dozens of Republican observers—though Trump denied they had sufficient access .
The Philadelphia City Commissioners are also livestreaming the vote counts .
Biden spent much of the day gearing up for a possible transition to the White House by receiving briefings on the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kamala Harris .
In a speech from Wilmington , Delaware , he insisted that the states must be permitted to finish the counting .
“ In America , the vote is sacred , ” Biden said .
“ It is the will of the voters—no one , not anything else—that chooses the president of the United States of America .
So each ballot must be counted.
” Some Republican lawmakers began distancing themselves from the claims of the president and his inner circle , asserting that they should either present evidence of cheating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tweet following the speech , Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger implored the president to “ present EVIDENCE ” if he had legitimate concerns of fraud .
“ STOP Spreading debunked misinformation , ” Kinzinger wrote .
“ This is getting insane.
” “ Every legal vote should and will be counted—as they always are .
Where there are issues there are ways to address them .
If anyone has proof of wrongdoing , it should be presented and resolved .
Anything less harms the integrity of our elections and is dangerous for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rep. Paul Mitchell .
Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney , a Trump critic who voted to impeach the president in January , tweeted after the speech : “ Counting every vote is at the heart of our democracy.
” He did not mention Trump by name .
Rick Santorum , a former Republican presidential candidate and CNN commentator , said Trump ’ s comments were “ wrong and very dangerous ” and called on Republican lawmakers to stand up to the president .
Yet Trump ’ s ire over the mail-in vote appeared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counted late in Pennsylvania that cut into his lead there , though there is no question about their validity .
At the same time , he praised ballots that were coming into Arizona and Nevada late that cut into Biden ’ s lead in the two western states .
With 214 electoral votes according to a New York Times tally , Trump would likely need to hold all three states to win reelection .
The comments reflected an increasingly desperate tone from the Trump campaign as the president ’ s path toward reelection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course of the day , Trump deployed some of his most loyal political lieutenants , including Richard Grenell , Pam Bondi , Rudy Giuliani , and Corey Lewandowski , to critical battleground states to challenge the legitimacy of the voting process , while his sons spread unsubstantiated rumors on social media that voting tallies had been manipulated .
The Trump campaign also ramped up legal fights , filing suit to halt the counting of ballots in Pennsylvania and demanding that Republicans be granted greater access to the vote-counting process .
Similar lawsuits were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michigan .
Just prior to Trump ’ s remarks , Pennsylvania Lt. Gov .
John Fetterman , a Democrat , said : “ We just had the largest election in our state ’ s history .
… We rolled out vote by mail for the first time in our state ’ s history .
… The only irregularity we had was the president ’ s campaign rolling up in a clown car in downtown Philadelphia and having an impromptu press conference and saying ridiculous things and making up lies.
” Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting process .
Bondi , a former Florida attorney general , said at a press conference in Philadelphia : “ We ’ ve won Pennsylvania , and we want every vote to be counted in a fair way.
” At the same time , the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit seeking to halt the counting of ballots in Pennsylvania .
In each case , Trump loyalists failed to present evidence to back up their claims of voter fraud .

Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch

President Donald Trump took to the White House podium Thursday night to make baseless allegations that Democrats were committing massive voter fraud with mail-in ballots in order to win the presidential election.
President Donald Trump took to the White House podium Thursday night to make baseless allegations that Democrats were committing massive voter fraud with mail-in ballots in order to win the presidential election.
The president’s claims appeared to be meant to further fan the flames of partisan rancor and undermine the integrity of the 2020 presidential election—particularly in the eyes of his most vocal supporters. They also carried the potential to trigger violence across the country.
Though the claims were presented without evidence and seemed specious, some might set the stage for legal and political battles in the remaining swing states that will determine the ultimate result. Election observers have found no pattern of irregularities with the counting of the mail-in ballots so far.
“If you count the legal votes, I easily win,” Trump said, seeming to suggest that all mail-in ballots received or counted after Election Day were invalid. That contradicted public voting data released by states and prompted several news outlets to quickly cut away to correct the record. “If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us,” Trump added. He did not take questions from the media.
Trump’s unprecedented speech came as Joe Biden continued to cut into the president’s lead in Pennsylvania on Thursday night. Thousands of mail-in ballots from Philadelphia and surrounding areas were breaking toward the former vice president at numbers greater than 70 percent, according to state officials.
Election workers in Philadelphia, an important Democratic stronghold within the state, are counting ballots while being overseen by dozens of Republican observers—though Trump denied they had sufficient access. The Philadelphia City Commissioners are also livestreaming the vote counts.
Biden spent much of the day gearing up for a possible transition to the White House by receiving briefings on the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis along with his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris. In a speech from Wilmington, Delaware, he insisted that the states must be permitted to finish the counting. “In America, the vote is sacred,” Biden said. “It is the will of the voters—no one, not anything else—that chooses the president of the United States of America. So each ballot must be counted.”
Some Republican lawmakers began distancing themselves from the claims of the president and his inner circle, asserting that they should either present evidence of cheating or respect the democratic process. In a tweet following the speech, Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger implored the president to “present EVIDENCE” if he had legitimate concerns of fraud. “STOP Spreading debunked misinformation,” Kinzinger wrote. “This is getting insane.”
“Every legal vote should and will be counted—as they always are. Where there are issues there are ways to address them. If anyone has proof of wrongdoing, it should be presented and resolved. Anything less harms the integrity of our elections and is dangerous for our democracy,” said Michigan Republican Rep. Paul Mitchell.
Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, a Trump critic who voted to impeach the president in January, tweeted after the speech: “Counting every vote is at the heart of our democracy.” He did not mention Trump by name. Rick Santorum, a former Republican presidential candidate and CNN commentator, said Trump’s comments were “wrong and very dangerous” and called on Republican lawmakers to stand up to the president.
Yet Trump’s ire over the mail-in vote appeared to be selective. He condemned ballots counted late in Pennsylvania that cut into his lead there, though there is no question about their validity. At the same time, he praised ballots that were coming into Arizona and Nevada late that cut into Biden’s lead in the two western states. With 214 electoral votes according to a New York Times tally, Trump would likely need to hold all three states to win reelection.
The comments reflected an increasingly desperate tone from the Trump campaign as the president’s path toward reelection appeared to steadily narrow. Over the course of the day, Trump deployed some of his most loyal political lieutenants, including Richard Grenell, Pam Bondi, Rudy Giuliani, and Corey Lewandowski, to critical battleground states to challenge the legitimacy of the voting process, while his sons spread unsubstantiated rumors on social media that voting tallies had been manipulated.
The Trump campaign also ramped up legal fights, filing suit to halt the counting of ballots in Pennsylvania and demanding that Republicans be granted greater access to the vote-counting process. Similar lawsuits were thrown out by courts in Georgia and Michigan.
Just prior to Trump’s remarks, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, said: “We just had the largest election in our state’s history. … We rolled out vote by mail for the first time in our state’s history. … The only irregularity we had was the president’s campaign rolling up in a clown car in downtown Philadelphia and having an impromptu press conference and saying ridiculous things and making up lies.”
Trump’s surrogates leveled equally unsubstantiated claims about the voting process. Bondi, a former Florida attorney general, said at a press conference in Philadelphia: “We’ve won Pennsylvania, and we want every vote to be counted in a fair way.” At the same time, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit seeking to halt the counting of ballots in Pennsylvania. In each case, Trump loyalists failed to present evidence to back up their claims of voter fraud.