foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--Trump Still Calls the Shots on U.S. Foreign Policy

Trump Still Calls the Shots on U.S. Foreign Policy Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : the Trump administration has last-minute Iran plans , Azerbaijan claims it has taken a strategic town in Nagorno-Karabakh , and Myanmar ’ s election results trickle in .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
U.S President Donald Trump ’ s public schedule today is empty , but with 71 days of his presidency still to go , his administration ’ s drive to shape U.S. foreign policy remains as active as ever .
Elliott Abrams , U.S. Special Representative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dispatched on a whirlwind tour of Trump ’ s most favored nations : Israel , the United Arab Emirates , and Saudi Arabia “ for consultations on Iran , ” according to a State Department press release .
Abrams ’ s travel coincides with an Axios report that the Trump administration aims to put the incoming Biden administration in a bind when it comes to Iran policy .
According to the report , the Trump administration is seeking support for a plan to place new sanctions on Iran every week until Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ targeted toward Iran ’ s ballistic missile program and support for overseas groups like Hezbollah , with the strategy in mind that sanctions against Iran ’ s nuclear program would be too simple for a President Biden to lift .
In Iran , President Hassan Rouhani has cautiously welcomed the coming transition .
“ The next U.S. administration should use the opportunity to make up for past mistakes , ” Rouhani said , adding that Iran “ favors constructive interaction with the world.
” Israel ’ s options .
Although Israeli Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris , figures in his government have already voiced their disapproval for Biden ’ s goal of returning the United States to the Iran nuclear deal .
Israeli Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said last week that such a move would “ lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran.
” With a less willing partner in Joe Biden , Netanyahu ’ s political future could also be at stake , Shalom Lipner writes in Foreign Policy .
“ A depreciation in the value of Netanyahu ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israelis more amenable to considering an alternative investment , ” Lipner writes .
No matter which direction Biden ’ s policy goes , the trend of normalization between Arab states and Israel is expected to continue unabated , Jonathan H. Ferziger writes in FP .
When the sword dancing stops .
While a transition from Trump to Biden may be relatively easy for Israel , the same can ’ t be said for Saudi Arabia , the country Trump chose for his first official visit as president : Biden has promised to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen .
Sara Khorshid explains in Foreign Policy why authoritarian Saudi leaders—and Egypt ’ s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi—are so worried .
Writing in FP , Aaron David Miller looks at why a Biden “ mostly interested in not getting sucked back into the Middle East ” may not be “ prepared to invest all that much time or attention to Saudi Arabia.
” On Monday , Nov. 9 , Former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci makes an initial appearance before the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and crimes against humanity .
Evo Morales is scheduled to make his return to Bolivia roughly one year after fleeing Bolivia ’ s presidency under military pressure .
Lawmakers in Peru gather to consider whether to impeach and remove President Richard Cisneros .
At the United Nations General Assembly , members discuss the annual report of the International Atomic Energy Agency .
On Friday , Nov. 13 , Vietnam hosts the 37th ASEAN summit and East Asia summit .
Saudi Arabia hosts an extraordinary meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt forgiveness amid the COVID-19 pandemic .
Saturday , Nov. 14 , European Union sanctions against Venezuela , in place since 2017 , are due to expire .
On Sunday , Nov. 15 , Moldova holds its presidential election runoff between pro-Russian incumbent Igor Dodon and pro-European challenger Maia Sandu .
Ethiopia shake-up .
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed replaced his army chief , head of intelligence , and foreign minister in a shake-up that appears to be designed to promote supporters of his government ’ s offensive against the Tigray region and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen will take up the post of foreign minister and deputy army chief Birhanu Jula is the new army chief of staff .
The shuffle comes as the United Nations warned of a major humanitarian crisis if military actions against Tigray continue .
Speaking to Reuters , the Tigray region ’ s president , Debretsion Gebremichael , said Tigray would keep defending itself until federal authorities agree to negotiate .
Azerbaijan claims key town .
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed on Sunday that his military had captured a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Nagorno-Karabakh , in a sign of growing dominance of Azerbaijani forces in the conflict .
Ethnic Armenian officials in Nagorno-Karabakh denied Aliyev ’ s claim , saying that fighting continues in the town of Shushi ( Shusha in Azerbaijani ) while acknowledging that “ there is a lot of destruction in the city.
” Speaking on state television , Aliyev appeared to belittle ongoing peace talks .
“ We have won this victory on the battlefield , not at the negotiating table , ” Aliyev said .
“ I have said many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there are military solutions to this conflict.
” After victory , Democrats begin infighting .
As the dust settles on Election 2020 , exactly how Biden won—and whether his campaign met expectations—are the driving questions within the Democratic Party .
Moderates are adamant that their measured tone is what carried the day , while progressives point to the increased turnout of marginalized groups spurred by activist organizing as key to the victory .
FP ’ s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer report on the battle that will define the policy platform of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Thousands protested outside the Georgian Central Election Commission in Tbilisi on Sunday to demand a new vote amid opposition claims that the election—in which ruling party Georgian Dream won 48.15 percent of the vote—was rigged .
Despite opposition claims , international election observers say the Oct. 31 election was competitive and that “ overall , fundamental freedoms were respected.
” Turkey ’ s economic reshuffle .
Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak has resigned and Turkey ’ s central bank governor has been fired in a tumultuous weekend for stewardship of the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who stepped down via an Instagram post , may yet keep his job if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to accept his resignation .
Albayrak , who is Erdogan ’ s son-in-law , said he was stepping down for health reasons .
He was known as a go-between for Erdogan and the White House through his connection to Trump advisor Jared Kushner .
Myanmar ’ s election .
Votes continue to be counted in Myanmar ’ s general election after millions turned out to vote on Sunday .
Aung San Suu Kyi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NLD ) is expected to win with ease , although the size of her victory will determine her governing mandate .
With the majority of Rohingya and Rakhine minorities excluded from Sunday ’ s vote , Human Rights Watch has declared the election “ fundamentally flawed.
” Passengers traveled via hyperloop for the first time on Sunday , completing their 500 meter journey on a test track in 15 seconds , reaching speeds of 107 miles per hour .
The technology , involving pods moving in vacuum tubes , had yet to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the company behind the test , eventually wants passengers to reach speeds of over 600 miles per hour .
A couple has discovered a 100-year-old capsule belonging to a long-dead carrier pigeon in a field in France .
Contained within is a message from a German infantry soldier during World War I , describing troop movements and casualties .
Dominique Jardy , curator of the Linge Museum at Orbey , has declared the find “ super rare ” and has added the message to the museum ’ s permanent display .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the Trump administration has last-minute Iran plans, Azerbaijan claims it has taken a strategic town in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Myanmar ’s election results trickle in.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the Trump administration has last-minute Iran plans, Azerbaijan claims it has taken a strategic town in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Myanmar’s election results trickle in.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
The Trump Administration Still Has Iran on Its Bucket List
U.S President Donald Trump’s public schedule today is empty, but with 71 days of his presidency still to go, his administration’s drive to shape U.S. foreign policy remains as active as ever.
Elliott Abrams, U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela, has been dispatched on a whirlwind tour of Trump’s most favored nations: Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia “for consultations on Iran,” according to a State Department press release.
Abrams’s travel coincides with an Axios report that the Trump administration aims to put the incoming Biden administration in a bind when it comes to Iran policy. According to the report, the Trump administration is seeking support for a plan to place new sanctions on Iran every week until Biden’s inauguration. The sanctions will be targeted toward Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for overseas groups like Hezbollah, with the strategy in mind that sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program would be too simple for a President Biden to lift.
In Iran, President Hassan Rouhani has cautiously welcomed the coming transition. “The next U.S. administration should use the opportunity to make up for past mistakes,” Rouhani said, adding that Iran “favors constructive interaction with the world.”
Israel’s options. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered his congratulations to President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, figures in his government have already voiced their disapproval for Biden’s goal of returning the United States to the Iran nuclear deal. Israeli Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said last week that such a move would “lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran.”
With a less willing partner in Joe Biden, Netanyahu’s political future could also be at stake, Shalom Lipner writes in Foreign Policy. “A depreciation in the value of Netanyahu’s stock on the world stage could make Israelis more amenable to considering an alternative investment,” Lipner writes.
No matter which direction Biden’s policy goes, the trend of normalization between Arab states and Israel is expected to continue unabated, Jonathan H. Ferziger writes in FP.
When the sword dancing stops. While a transition from Trump to Biden may be relatively easy for Israel, the same can’t be said for Saudi Arabia, the country Trump chose for his first official visit as president: Biden has promised to “reassess” the U.S.-Saudi relationship and end U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen. Sara Khorshid explains in Foreign Policy why authoritarian Saudi leaders—and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi—are so worried.
Writing in FP, Aaron David Miller looks at why a Biden “mostly interested in not getting sucked back into the Middle East” may not be “prepared to invest all that much time or attention to Saudi Arabia.”
The World This Week
On Monday, Nov. 9, Former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci makes an initial appearance before the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague. He is charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Evo Morales is scheduled to make his return to Bolivia roughly one year after fleeing Bolivia’s presidency under military pressure.
Lawmakers in Peru gather to consider whether to impeach and remove President Richard Cisneros.
On Tuesday, Nov. 10, Jordan holds legislative elections.
On Wednesday, Nov. 11, Belize holds a general election.
At the United Nations General Assembly, members discuss the annual report of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
On Friday, Nov. 13, Vietnam hosts the 37th ASEAN summit and East Asia summit.
Saudi Arabia hosts an extraordinary meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers. The meeting is likely to focus on debt forgiveness amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Saturday, Nov. 14, European Union sanctions against Venezuela, in place since 2017, are due to expire.
On Sunday, Nov. 15, Moldova holds its presidential election runoff between pro-Russian incumbent Igor Dodon and pro-European challenger Maia Sandu.
Brazil holds municipal elections.
What We’re Following Today
Ethiopia shake-up. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed replaced his army chief, head of intelligence, and foreign minister in a shake-up that appears to be designed to promote supporters of his government’s offensive against the Tigray region and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen will take up the post of foreign minister and deputy army chief Birhanu Jula is the new army chief of staff. The shuffle comes as the United Nations warned of a major humanitarian crisis if military actions against Tigray continue. Speaking to Reuters, the Tigray region’s president, Debretsion Gebremichael, said Tigray would keep defending itself until federal authorities agree to negotiate.
Azerbaijan claims key town. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed on Sunday that his military had captured a strategic town overlooking Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, in a sign of growing dominance of Azerbaijani forces in the conflict. Ethnic Armenian officials in Nagorno-Karabakh denied Aliyev’s claim, saying that fighting continues in the town of Shushi (Shusha in Azerbaijani) while acknowledging that “there is a lot of destruction in the city.” Speaking on state television, Aliyev appeared to belittle ongoing peace talks. “We have won this victory on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table,” Aliyev said. “I have said many times that, despite all the statements, there are military solutions to this conflict.”
After victory, Democrats begin infighting. As the dust settles on Election 2020, exactly how Biden won—and whether his campaign met expectations—are the driving questions within the Democratic Party. Moderates are adamant that their measured tone is what carried the day, while progressives point to the increased turnout of marginalized groups spurred by activist organizing as key to the victory. FP’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer report on the battle that will define the policy platform of the new administration.
Keep an Eye On
Unrest in Georgia. Thousands protested outside the Georgian Central Election Commission in Tbilisi on Sunday to demand a new vote amid opposition claims that the election—in which ruling party Georgian Dream won 48.15 percent of the vote—was rigged. Despite opposition claims, international election observers say the Oct. 31 election was competitive and that “overall, fundamental freedoms were respected.”
Turkey’s economic reshuffle. Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak has resigned and Turkey’s central bank governor has been fired in a tumultuous weekend for stewardship of the country’s ailing economy. Albayrak, who stepped down via an Instagram post, may yet keep his job if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to accept his resignation. Albayrak, who is Erdogan’s son-in-law, said he was stepping down for health reasons. He was known as a go-between for Erdogan and the White House through his connection to Trump advisor Jared Kushner.
Myanmar’s election. Votes continue to be counted in Myanmar’s general election after millions turned out to vote on Sunday. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is expected to win with ease, although the size of her victory will determine her governing mandate. With the majority of Rohingya and Rakhine minorities excluded from Sunday’s vote, Human Rights Watch has declared the election “fundamentally flawed.”
Odds and Ends
Passengers traveled via hyperloop for the first time on Sunday, completing their 500 meter journey on a test track in 15 seconds, reaching speeds of 107 miles per hour. The technology, involving pods moving in vacuum tubes, had yet to be tested with human passengers. Virgin Hyperloop, the company behind the test, eventually wants passengers to reach speeds of over 600 miles per hour.
A couple has discovered a 100-year-old capsule belonging to a long-dead carrier pigeon in a field in France. Contained within is a message from a German infantry soldier during World War I, describing troop movements and casualties. Dominique Jardy, curator of the Linge Museum at Orbey, has declared the find “super rare” and has added the message to the museum’s permanent display.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--What Trump’s Loss Means for Authoritarian Leaders

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
When Joe Biden said on Wednesday night that “ democracy works , ” he struck a chord for many democrats around the world , not just for the Americans who voted him into office .
But just as progressives inside and outside the United States have been rejoicing , relieved to see their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s opponents have been nervously following the U.S. presidential election and betting on a win for Donald Trump , which they did not get .
Authoritarian rulers to whom democracy is a threat , most notably in Egypt and Saudi Arabia , are a case in point—and it is easy to see why Biden ’ s victory has frightened the two countries ’ leaders .
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Arabia ’ s de facto ruler , Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , would have adopted undemocratic policies and overseen human @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in office , but his presidency allowed them to do this with more confidence and ease .
They knew that they would not face a serious moral challenge from Washington no matter how far they went in their suppression of their citizens .
During Trump ’ s four years as president , proponents of democracy and human rights have been remarkably lonely and overpowered in an international arena that suddenly looked very different than it had prior to 2016 .
In the summer of 2018 , for example , when Canada ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two political detainees in Saudi Arabia , Riyadh overreacted , expelling the Canadian ambassador , suspending flights to and from Toronto , withdrawing thousands of Saudi students from Canadian schools and universities , and freezing future trade and investment with the North American country .
More shocking than the Saudi storm of punitive measures against Ottawa was Washington ’ s reluctance to come to the aid of its neighbor and longtime partner .
But Riyadh ’ s biggest prize from Trump came a few months later , when the former got away with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Khashoggi .
He was dismembered with a bone saw in his own country ’ s consulate in Turkey , the world was shocked , and the CIA concluded that his assassination was ordered by the Saudi crown prince .
Despite the overwhelming evidence from his own intelligence agencies , Trump could not muster more than subtle and indirect criticisms from which he quickly retreated .
Then he reaffirmed that Saudi Arabia had “ been a great ally in our very important fight against Iran .
The United States intends to remain a steadfast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interests of our country , Israel and all other partners in the region .
It is our paramount goal to fully eliminate the threat of terrorism throughout the world !
” Another close Trump ally is Egypt ’ s Sisi , whom the outgoing president bluntly called “ my favorite dictator ” at the G-7 summit in France in 2019 .
Sisi had already begun a severe crackdown on opponents and activists when Barack Obama was in the White House .
The estimated number of political prisoners in the country currently is at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frequent that they have become normalized .
Jails are overcrowded , and there are numerous reports of torture in Egyptian prisons .
While this crackdown was already in full swing before Trump was elected in 2016 , its persistence with continued severity , since Sisi took power in 2014 and until now , is rare and worse than it ever was in the past few decades—even under Hosni Mubarak .
The regime had been largely politically isolated at the international level , especially after Sisi , then-Egypt ’ s military chief , oversaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency in 2013 .
Back then , Obama was in the White House , and he responded to what his administration saw as an undemocratic move in Egypt by imposing a partial , temporary cut of U.S. aid to Egypt .
Eventually aid was restored in 2015 , but bilateral relations remained strained after Obama had sent a clear message the he was not comfortable with being perceived as friendly toward autocratic rulers .
At the time , critics saw his reaction as futile , but the world has now lived to realize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s policies and attitude toward Sisi , Mohammed bin Salman , and like-minded politicians from Brazil to Hungary to Belarus , where Aleksandr Lukashenko—another beleaguered leader refusing to step down—echoed Trump a few days ago , saying the U.S. election was fraudulent .
But it is not only about foreign policy .
The cause of today ’ s anxiety among nondemocratic rulers is not just about whatever concrete differences that they expect between Trump ’ s and Biden ’ s policies .
Dictators also fear the reinforcement of the powerful idea that “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rejoicing today are happy to see Trump ’ s indecency go , but they are also inspired by democracy ’ s self-corrective mechanisms .
No matter how much Trump attempted to use the powers given to him by the U.S. Constitution to change the system in his favor ( e.g.
, rushing to appoint Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court ) , the system still gave the American people the means to vote him out of office .
That doesn ’ t happen in Sisi ’ s Egypt ; when Sami Anan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against Sisi in 2018 , Sisi put him in jail—and the matter was closed .
The Egyptian people did not give up .
A year later , they marched in rare protests against Sisi ’ s rule even as they fully realized the risk they were taking under a president who has been rounding up protesters en masse and locking them up until they are forgotten about .
Then they got arrested , and the protests were suppressed .
Biden ’ s election is rekindling hope .
This is about America , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If Biden really sees the United States as a “ beacon for the globe , ” and many Americans and non-Americans are eager to believe him , he should break with Trump ’ s policies toward autocratic rulers , including Sisi and Mohammed bin Salman .
This is not a call for an interventionist U.S. foreign policy .
The United States is already intervening in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia by virtue of generous military aid , arms sales , and other means of leverage that have more or less persisted under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are realities on the ground , and they can be , and have been , used as bargaining chips .
Nor is this a call for Biden to boss his counterparts around in a way or tone that could rightly bring criticism and valid accusations of U.S. neoimperialism , to terminate long-standing relations , or to dismiss the importance of the Egyptian state ’ s war against Islamic State affiliates in the Northern Sinai region .
Rather , it is a call for Biden to be true to democracy and the democratic values @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a release of political detainees in Egypt and Saudi Arabia is one achievable step that Biden should pursue .
It is important to prove now more than ever that democracy matters—at home and abroad—as these values were feared to be at stake under Trump .
With him gone , it is time to champion them once again .

When Joe Biden said on Wednesday night that “democracy works,” he struck a chord for many democrats around the world, not just for the Americans who voted him into office. But just as progressives inside and outside the United States have been rejoicing, relieved to see their faith in democracy validated, democracy’s opponents have been nervously following the U.S. presidential election and betting on a win for Donald Trump, which they did not get.
When Joe Biden said on Wednesday night that “democracy works,” he struck a chord for many democrats around the world, not just for the Americans who voted him into office. But just as progressives inside and outside the United States have been rejoicing, relieved to see their faith in democracy validated, democracy’s opponents have been nervously following the U.S. presidential election and betting on a win for Donald Trump, which they did not get.
Authoritarian rulers to whom democracy is a threat, most notably in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are a case in point—and it is easy to see why Biden’s victory has frightened the two countries’ leaders. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, would have adopted undemocratic policies and overseen human rights violations whether or not Trump was in office, but his presidency allowed them to do this with more confidence and ease. They knew that they would not face a serious moral challenge from Washington no matter how far they went in their suppression of their citizens.
During Trump’s four years as president, proponents of democracy and human rights have been remarkably lonely and overpowered in an international arena that suddenly looked very different than it had prior to 2016. In the summer of 2018, for example, when Canada’s foreign minister called for the release of two political detainees in Saudi Arabia, Riyadh overreacted, expelling the Canadian ambassador, suspending flights to and from Toronto, withdrawing thousands of Saudi students from Canadian schools and universities, and freezing future trade and investment with the North American country. More shocking than the Saudi storm of punitive measures against Ottawa was Washington’s reluctance to come to the aid of its neighbor and longtime partner.
But Riyadh’s biggest prize from Trump came a few months later, when the former got away with the killing of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi. He was dismembered with a bone saw in his own country’s consulate in Turkey, the world was shocked, and the CIA concluded that his assassination was ordered by the Saudi crown prince.
Despite the overwhelming evidence from his own intelligence agencies, Trump could not muster more than subtle and indirect criticisms from which he quickly retreated. Then he reaffirmed that Saudi Arabia had “been a great ally in our very important fight against Iran. The United States intends to remain a steadfast partner of Saudi Arabia to ensure the interests of our country, Israel and all other partners in the region. It is our paramount goal to fully eliminate the threat of terrorism throughout the world!”
Another close Trump ally is Egypt’s Sisi, whom the outgoing president bluntly called “my favorite dictator” at the G-7 summit in France in 2019. Sisi had already begun a severe crackdown on opponents and activists when Barack Obama was in the White House. The estimated number of political prisoners in the country currently is at least 60,000.
Enforced disappearances are so frequent that they have become normalized. Jails are overcrowded, and there are numerous reports of torture in Egyptian prisons. While this crackdown was already in full swing before Trump was elected in 2016, its persistence with continued severity, since Sisi took power in 2014 and until now, is rare and worse than it ever was in the past few decades—even under Hosni Mubarak.
The regime had been largely politically isolated at the international level, especially after Sisi, then-Egypt’s military chief, oversaw the removal of Mohamed Morsi from the presidency in 2013. Back then, Obama was in the White House, and he responded to what his administration saw as an undemocratic move in Egypt by imposing a partial, temporary cut of U.S. aid to Egypt.
Eventually aid was restored in 2015, but bilateral relations remained strained after Obama had sent a clear message the he was not comfortable with being perceived as friendly toward autocratic rulers. At the time, critics saw his reaction as futile, but the world has now lived to realize its significance, compared with Trump’s policies and attitude toward Sisi, Mohammed bin Salman, and like-minded politicians from Brazil to Hungary to Belarus, where Aleksandr Lukashenko—another beleaguered leader refusing to step down—echoed Trump a few days ago, saying the U.S. election was fraudulent.
But it is not only about foreign policy. The cause of today’s anxiety among nondemocratic rulers is not just about whatever concrete differences that they expect between Trump’s and Biden’s policies. Dictators also fear the reinforcement of the powerful idea that “democracy works.” The Egyptians who are rejoicing today are happy to see Trump’s indecency go, but they are also inspired by democracy’s self-corrective mechanisms.
No matter how much Trump attempted to use the powers given to him by the U.S. Constitution to change the system in his favor (e.g., rushing to appoint Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court), the system still gave the American people the means to vote him out of office. That doesn’t happen in Sisi’s Egypt; when Sami Anan announced his intention to run for president against Sisi in 2018, Sisi put him in jail—and the matter was closed.
The Egyptian people did not give up. A year later, they marched in rare protests against Sisi’s rule even as they fully realized the risk they were taking under a president who has been rounding up protesters en masse and locking them up until they are forgotten about. Then they got arrested, and the protests were suppressed.
Biden’s election is rekindling hope. This is about America, but it is more than just America. If Biden really sees the United States as a “beacon for the globe,” and many Americans and non-Americans are eager to believe him, he should break with Trump’s policies toward autocratic rulers, including Sisi and Mohammed bin Salman.
This is not a call for an interventionist U.S. foreign policy. The United States is already intervening in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia by virtue of generous military aid, arms sales, and other means of leverage that have more or less persisted under subsequent U.S. administrations for decades. These are realities on the ground, and they can be, and have been, used as bargaining chips.
Nor is this a call for Biden to boss his counterparts around in a way or tone that could rightly bring criticism and valid accusations of U.S. neoimperialism, to terminate long-standing relations, or to dismiss the importance of the Egyptian state’s war against Islamic State affiliates in the Northern Sinai region. Rather, it is a call for Biden to be true to democracy and the democratic values that his election symbolizes. For instance, a release of political detainees in Egypt and Saudi Arabia is one achievable step that Biden should pursue.
It is important to prove now more than ever that democracy matters—at home and abroad—as these values were feared to be at stake under Trump. With him gone, it is time to champion them once again.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--America’s Economy Is Fragile. So Is Biden’s Economic Team.

America ’ s Economy Is Fragile .
So Is Biden ’ s Economic Team .
This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As the transition to the next administration under Joe Biden begins , several lists of potential economics team members are already in circulation .
Longtime Biden advisors Jared Bernstein and Ben Harris are in the frame .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center for Equitable Growth , formerly of Hillary Clinton ’ s transition team .
Lael Brainard at the U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the most experienced technocrats of her generation .
She is odds on to be the first woman to serve as U.S. treasury secretary .
These are the intellectual picks .
At the other end of the spectrum are operators like the businessman Jeff Zients , Barack Obama ’ s Mr. Fix-It and the head of his National Economic Council .
Zients is one of four co-chairs in the Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” vouched for by the Business Roundtable .
The economic agenda of the Biden administration will likely be defined by such splits in personal background and by the wider left-center axis that runs through the Democratic Party .
At this stage , these divides seem much more pronounced than under Obama .
The economics team of Obama ’ s early years was taken straight from Bill Clinton ’ s roster .
When Biden ’ s team announced this year that it was taking advice from Larry Summers , Clinton ’ s last treasury @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Obama administration , it provoked a storm of protest from the left .
Since then , Summers has removed himself from consideration for jobs in the Biden administration .
In truth , whereas the Obama administration inherited a narrative of success from the Clinton era , Obama ’ s legacy for Biden is more mixed .
This reflects the slow recovery from the 2008 crisis ; the failure to implement radical reform of the financial system ; and the growing awareness of the problems of inequality and structural racism and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that used to be seen as the salvation of U.S. capitalism .
Today , it is no secret that there are huge differences within the Democratic Party on questions of wealth taxes and antitrust regulations , among others .
It is easier to agree on macroeconomics .
There is general agreement that the Obama administration would have done better to push for a bigger fiscal stimulus in 2009 .
Faced with America ’ s current recession , that is also something on which Biden ’ s team can agree .
The United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good on Biden ’ s promise to “ build back better ” and kick-start the country ’ s energy transition .
But getting a multitrillion-dollar package depends on control of the Senate—a prospect that seems likely out of reach for Democrats .
If , come January , Mitch McConnell still controls the Senate , that will not only curtail any spending package designed by the Biden White House .
It also risks exposing divisions throughout the Democratic camp .
Compromise with Senate Republicans will be a bitter pill for the left wing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to focus on areas such as regulatory change that do not require congressional approval but on which it may be much harder to find agreement within the Democratic Party ’ s own increasingly diverse coalition .

As the transition to the next administration under Joe Biden begins, several lists of potential economics team members are already in circulation. Longtime Biden advisors Jared Bernstein and Ben Harris are in the frame. So too is Heather Boushey of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, formerly of Hillary Clinton’s transition team. Lael Brainard at the U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the most experienced technocrats of her generation. She is odds on to be the first woman to serve as U.S. treasury secretary.
As the transition to the next administration under Joe Biden begins, several lists of potential economics team members are already in circulation. Longtime Biden advisors Jared Bernstein and Ben Harris are in the frame. So too is Heather Boushey of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, formerly of Hillary Clinton’s transition team. Lael Brainard at the U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the most experienced technocrats of her generation. She is odds on to be the first woman to serve as U.S. treasury secretary.
These are the intellectual picks. At the other end of the spectrum are operators like the businessman Jeff Zients, Barack Obama’s Mr. Fix-It and the head of his National Economic Council. Zients is one of four co-chairs in the Biden transition team and a “staunch capitalist” vouched for by the Business Roundtable.
The economic agenda of the Biden administration will likely be defined by such splits in personal background and by the wider left-center axis that runs through the Democratic Party. At this stage, these divides seem much more pronounced than under Obama. The economics team of Obama’s early years was taken straight from Bill Clinton’s roster. When Biden’s team announced this year that it was taking advice from Larry Summers, Clinton’s last treasury secretary and a key figure of continuity in the Obama administration, it provoked a storm of protest from the left. Since then, Summers has removed himself from consideration for jobs in the Biden administration.
In truth, whereas the Obama administration inherited a narrative of success from the Clinton era, Obama’s legacy for Biden is more mixed. This reflects the slow recovery from the 2008 crisis; the failure to implement radical reform of the financial system; and the growing awareness of the problems of inequality and structural racism and the challenges of Big Tech, an industry that used to be seen as the salvation of U.S. capitalism. Today, it is no secret that there are huge differences within the Democratic Party on questions of wealth taxes and antitrust regulations, among others.
It is easier to agree on macroeconomics. There is general agreement that the Obama administration would have done better to push for a bigger fiscal stimulus in 2009. Faced with America’s current recession, that is also something on which Biden’s team can agree. The United States needs the largest feasible stimulus to make good on Biden’s promise to “build back better” and kick-start the country’s energy transition.
But getting a multitrillion-dollar package depends on control of the Senate—a prospect that seems likely out of reach for Democrats. If, come January, Mitch McConnell still controls the Senate, that will not only curtail any spending package designed by the Biden White House. It also risks exposing divisions throughout the Democratic camp. Compromise with Senate Republicans will be a bitter pill for the left wing to swallow, and it will force policy to focus on areas such as regulatory change that do not require congressional approval but on which it may be much harder to find agreement within the Democratic Party’s own increasingly diverse coalition.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--How Ethiopia Reached the Brink of Civil War

How Ethiopia Reached the Brink of Civil War Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly update on emerging global stories .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : Ethiopia ’ s central government sends troops into the Tigray region as tensions rise , Azerbaijan takes a strategic town in Nagorno-Karabakh , and Kosovo ’ s president steps down to face war crimes charges .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Mondays , please sign up here .
As the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the results of the U.S. presidential election , Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent soldiers to the restive northern Tigray province , alleging that regional troops had attacked a federal military base .
The crisis escalated quickly , and heavy casualties have been reported in clashes between the national military and troops loyal to the region ’ s ruling Tigrayan People ’ s Liberation Front ( TPLF ) .
On Monday , an Ethiopian military official said the air force was “ pounding targets with precision ” in Tigray .
Tensions between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ province have simmered for months , and the conflict risks becoming a full-blown civil war .
Here is a quick rundown of how the situation reached this point and why it could be so explosive .
Origins of the crisis .
The TPLF dominated Ethiopian national politics for decades : Ethnic Tigrayans , making up around 6 percent of the population , wielded outsize political and economic influence .
That ended with the election of Abiy in 2018 after his predecessor resigned .
( Abiy belongs to Ethiopia ’ s largest ethnic group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ambitious reforms , transforming what was one of Africa ’ s most repressive countries and winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending the two-decade conflict with neighboring Eritrea .
But the political opening led to a surge in ethno-nationalism , stoking tensions among the leaders of Ethiopia ’ s states , which are mostly based on ethnic and linguistic divisions .
As Abiy sought to root out corrupt officials , Tigrayan leaders felt they were disproportionately targeted , and the TPLF refused to join Abiy ’ s multiethnic Prosperity Party .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government and Tigray intensified after the region held parliamentary elections in September , defying Abiy ’ s move to postpone legislative elections until next year .
Tigrayan officials accused Abiy of using the coronavirus pandemic to mount a power grab .
The Tigrayan vote prompted the government to redirect federal funds away from Tigray ’ s regional leaders and send it instead to local administrators—a move the regional government described as “ tantamount to a declaration of war.
” Events came to a head last week as Abiy accused regional leaders in Tigray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Northern Command , which is home to half the army ’ s personnel , and launched a military offensive in response .
Ethiopia ’ s 10 semi-autonomous regions have their own police and militias , and both the central and regional governments had built up their capacities ahead of last week ’ s clash , as Tom Gardner wrote in a dispatch for Foreign Policy from Addis Ababa .
Happening now .
A communications blackout makes it difficult to get accurate information from on the ground in Tigray .
But Reuters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ killed since the offensive began , citing government sources .
The TPLF is estimated to have a fighting force of around 250,000 troops and access to significant military hardware—it is unlikely to be easily forced to surrender .
On Monday , Abiy denied that the country was on the brink of civil war .
“ Concerns that Ethiopia will descend into chaos are unfounded & a result of not understanding our context deeply , ” he wrote on Twitter .
In an emergency session on Saturday , the upper chamber of the Ethiopian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Tigray region , and on Sunday Abiy appointed new chiefs of the military , intelligence , and Ministry of Foreign Affairs .
What could come next .
The sudden liberalization of an ethno-federal state has evoked comparisons to the dissolution of Yugoslavia .
Without careful management , Ethiopia is at risk of fracturing along ethnic lines , as Florian Bieber and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu wrote for Foreign Policy last year .
The regional leader of Tigray , Debretsion Gebremichael , has called on the African Union to intervene to prevent a civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ António Guterres spoke with Abiy and the chair of the African Union and offered U.N. support in resolving the conflict .
But prospects for a cease-fire have yet to emerge : The government stepped up its military campaign on Sunday in what Abiy described as a “ law enforcement ” operation .
Ethnic cleansing looms in Nagorno-Karabakh .
Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh took a significant turn on Sunday as Azerbaijan ’ s president announced that his forces had captured a strategic hilltop town considered critical to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After taking Shusha—known as Shushi to Armenians—Azerbaijani forces now have a clear line of fire into the region ’ s capital , Stepanakert .
Joshua Kucera reports for Foreign Policy that thousands of people are now fleeing the city in anticipation of an assault by Azerbaijan ’ s forces , which many fear could lead to ethnic cleansing .
Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan , but it has a largely Armenian population .
The countries fought a bitter war over the territory in the early 1990s that left some 20,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 1 million people were displaced , most of them Azeris .
Now the shoe is on the other foot as Azerbaijan ’ s forces close in .
FP ’ s James Palmer explains the full background to the conflict .
War crimes indictments .
The president of Kosovo , Hashim Thaci , resigned on Thursday to face war crimes charges by a special court in The Hague .
Within the space of a day , Thaci , a towering figure in Kosovar politics , went from the presidential palace to a custody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in court on Monday , pleading not guilty .
Thaci and other former guerrilla leaders from Kosovo ’ s war for independence against Serbia in the late 1990s stand accused of participating in the abduction , detention , and murder of perceived traitors and opponents .
The preliminary charges against Thaci were announced with dramatic timing in June , two days before he was due to meet his Serbian counterpart , Aleksandar Vucic , at the White House for talks .
Zarif ’ s Latin America tour .
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his first stop in a tour of Latin America that comes as the Trump administration seeks to check Tehran ’ s influence in the region .
United by a common enemy , Iran and Venezuela have grown close as Washington has imposed punishing sanctions on both countries , with Iran sending food and tankers of oil to Venezuela .
Zarif is also set to visit Cuba and attend the inauguration of Bolivia ’ s left-wing president-elect , Luis Arce .
Shake-ups in Turkey .
Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak announced his resignation on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bank governor was fired , as the country plunges headlong into an economic crisis .
The value of the Turkish lira has hit record lows , losing 30 percent of its value against the dollar this year .
Albayrak , who is the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan , officially said he was stepping down for health reasons—but the timing points to a realignment in economic policy .
Some analysts have also speculated as to whether Albayrak ’ s departure was a response to Joe Biden ’ s victory in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner , Albayrak handled the Turkish government ’ s relationship with the White House and maintained a diplomatic back channel over WhatsApp with Kushner .
Chinese satellites .
While a battle over 5G rages on Earth , China sent the world ’ s first 6G test satellite into orbit last week , although 6G networks are not expected to be commercially available for several years .
It was sent into space on Friday , along with 12 other satellites launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in the Shanxi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its space program , seeking to rival the United States .
So far this year , China has sent more satellites into space than any other country .
New Zealand ’ s new foreign minister .
After her party won by a landslide in parliamentary elections last month , New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appointed the seasoned politician Nanaia Mahuta as foreign minister—the first woman to hold the role and only the second Maori .
This profile in the Guardian explores how Mahuta ’ s appointment could pave the way for New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to its foreign affairs .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly update on emerging global stories.
Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly update on emerging global stories.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: Ethiopia’s central government sends troops into the Tigray region as tensions rise, Azerbaijan takes a strategic town in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Kosovo’s president steps down to face war crimes charges.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Mondays, please sign up here.
Ethiopia Pushed to the Brink of Civil War
As the world waited with bated breath last Wednesday for the results of the U.S. presidential election, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent soldiers to the restive northern Tigray province, alleging that regional troops had attacked a federal military base. The crisis escalated quickly, and heavy casualties have been reported in clashes between the national military and troops loyal to the region’s ruling Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
On Monday, an Ethiopian military official said the air force was “pounding targets with precision” in Tigray. Tensions between the national and local government in the province have simmered for months, and the conflict risks becoming a full-blown civil war. Here is a quick rundown of how the situation reached this point and why it could be so explosive.
Origins of the crisis. The TPLF dominated Ethiopian national politics for decades: Ethnic Tigrayans, making up around 6 percent of the population, wielded outsize political and economic influence. That ended with the election of Abiy in 2018 after his predecessor resigned. (Abiy belongs to Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo.)
Abiy pursued ambitious reforms, transforming what was one of Africa’s most repressive countries and winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending the two-decade conflict with neighboring Eritrea. But the political opening led to a surge in ethno-nationalism, stoking tensions among the leaders of Ethiopia’s states, which are mostly based on ethnic and linguistic divisions.
As Abiy sought to root out corrupt officials, Tigrayan leaders felt they were disproportionately targeted, and the TPLF refused to join Abiy’s multiethnic Prosperity Party.
The tipping point. Tensions between the central government and Tigray intensified after the region held parliamentary elections in September, defying Abiy’s move to postpone legislative elections until next year. Tigrayan officials accused Abiy of using the coronavirus pandemic to mount a power grab. The Tigrayan vote prompted the government to redirect federal funds away from Tigray’s regional leaders and send it instead to local administrators—a move the regional government described as “tantamount to a declaration of war.”
Events came to a head last week as Abiy accused regional leaders in Tigray of attempting to loot the national military’s Northern Command, which is home to half the army’s personnel, and launched a military offensive in response.
Ethiopia’s 10 semi-autonomous regions have their own police and militias, and both the central and regional governments had built up their capacities ahead of last week’s clash, as Tom Gardner wrote in a dispatch for Foreign Policy from Addis Ababa.
Happening now. A communications blackout makes it difficult to get accurate information from on the ground in Tigray. But Reuters reports that hundreds of people have been killed since the offensive began, citing government sources. The TPLF is estimated to have a fighting force of around 250,000 troops and access to significant military hardware—it is unlikely to be easily forced to surrender.
On Monday, Abiy denied that the country was on the brink of civil war. “Concerns that Ethiopia will descend into chaos are unfounded & a result of not understanding our context deeply,” he wrote on Twitter. In an emergency session on Saturday, the upper chamber of the Ethiopian parliament voted to dissolve the leadership of the Tigray region, and on Sunday Abiy appointed new chiefs of the military, intelligence, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
What could come next. The sudden liberalization of an ethno-federal state has evoked comparisons to the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Without careful management, Ethiopia is at risk of fracturing along ethnic lines, as Florian Bieber and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu wrote for Foreign Policy last year.
The regional leader of Tigray, Debretsion Gebremichael, has called on the African Union to intervene to prevent a civil war. On Saturday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres spoke with Abiy and the chair of the African Union and offered U.N. support in resolving the conflict. But prospects for a cease-fire have yet to emerge: The government stepped up its military campaign on Sunday in what Abiy described as a “law enforcement” operation.
What We’re Following
Ethnic cleansing looms in Nagorno-Karabakh. Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh took a significant turn on Sunday as Azerbaijan’s president announced that his forces had captured a strategic hilltop town considered critical to exerting military control over the region. After taking Shusha—known as Shushi to Armenians—Azerbaijani forces now have a clear line of fire into the region’s capital, Stepanakert.
Joshua Kucera reports for Foreign Policy that thousands of people are now fleeing the city in anticipation of an assault by Azerbaijan’s forces, which many fear could lead to ethnic cleansing.
Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but it has a largely Armenian population. The countries fought a bitter war over the territory in the early 1990s that left some 20,000 people dead and Armenia victorious. Up to 1 million people were displaced, most of them Azeris. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Azerbaijan’s forces close in. FP’s James Palmer explains the full background to the conflict.
War crimes indictments. The president of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci, resigned on Thursday to face war crimes charges by a special court in The Hague. Within the space of a day, Thaci, a towering figure in Kosovar politics, went from the presidential palace to a custody cell. He made his first appearance in court on Monday, pleading not guilty.
Thaci and other former guerrilla leaders from Kosovo’s war for independence against Serbia in the late 1990s stand accused of participating in the abduction, detention, and murder of perceived traitors and opponents. The preliminary charges against Thaci were announced with dramatic timing in June, two days before he was due to meet his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vucic, at the White House for talks.
Keep an Eye On
Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif arrives at International Airport El Alto on Nov. 7, in La Paz, Bolivia.
Zarif’s Latin America tour. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Venezuela last Wednesday, his first stop in a tour of Latin America that comes as the Trump administration seeks to check Tehran’s influence in the region. United by a common enemy, Iran and Venezuela have grown close as Washington has imposed punishing sanctions on both countries, with Iran sending food and tankers of oil to Venezuela.
Zarif is also set to visit Cuba and attend the inauguration of Bolivia’s left-wing president-elect, Luis Arce.
Shake-ups in Turkey. Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak announced his resignation on Sunday, one day after the central bank governor was fired, as the country plunges headlong into an economic crisis. The value of the Turkish lira has hit record lows, losing 30 percent of its value against the dollar this year. Albayrak, who is the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, officially said he was stepping down for health reasons—but the timing points to a realignment in economic policy.
Some analysts have also speculated as to whether Albayrak’s departure was a response to Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. A friend of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, Albayrak handled the Turkish government’s relationship with the White House and maintained a diplomatic back channel over WhatsApp with Kushner.
Chinese satellites. While a battle over 5G rages on Earth, China sent the world’s first 6G test satellite into orbit last week, although 6G networks are not expected to be commercially available for several years. It was sent into space on Friday, along with 12 other satellites launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in the Shanxi province.
China has invested heavily in its space program, seeking to rival the United States. So far this year, China has sent more satellites into space than any other country.
Foreign Policy Recommends
New Zealand’s new foreign minister. After her party won by a landslide in parliamentary elections last month, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appointed the seasoned politician Nanaia Mahuta as foreign minister—the first woman to hold the role and only the second Maori.
This profile in the Guardian explores how Mahuta’s appointment could pave the way for New Zealand to take a more indigenous-influenced approach to its foreign affairs.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--Trump’s Still Got Some Believers—Strongmen, Populists, and Authoritarians Refuse to Recognize Biden’

Trump’s Still Got Some Believers—Strongmen, Populists, and Authoritarians Refuse to Recognize Biden’s Win

Trump ’ s Still Got Some Believers—Strongmen , Populists , and Authoritarians Refuse to Recognize Biden ’ s Win This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
While most world leaders have lined up to congratulate U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on winning the 2020 election , a handful of the world ’ s strongmen have been conspicuous by their absence .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , some leaders have so far held their tongues on President Donald Trump ’ s loss , a stark reminder of the friends he made along the way .
While Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the first to congratulate Trump in 2016 , the Kremlin announced on Monday that the Russian leader will not recognize Biden as president-elect until Trump ’ s spurious legal challenges to the vote have been resolved .
“ We believe it ’ s correct to wait for the official results of the elections to be announced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reporters on a call on Monday .
After Putin was reelected in 2018 in an election that opposition activists say was marred by irregularities , Trump ’ s advisors left an all-caps note in his briefing materials ahead of a call with his Russian counterpart : “ DO NOT CONGRATULATE.
” He did it anyway .
Peskov ’ s comments were echoed on Monday by the spokesman of the Chinese foreign ministry .
Wang Wenbin acknowledged Biden ’ s claim of victory but added that Beijing would be watching that “ U.S .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the BBC .
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan , who was repeatedly praised by Trump , also has yet to recognize the results of the U.S. election .
Meanwhile , the two largest countries in Latin America are yet to congratulate Biden .
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro , one of Trump ’ s closest allies worldwide who openly endorsed the U.S. president last month , has yet to congratulate either candidate , though he did appear to distance himself from the U.S. president on Friday , calling for “ humility ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most important person in the world.
” The Bolsonaro administration ’ s first—and so far only—reference to the election results came from the official in charge of promoting Afro-Brazilian culture , who questioned Vice President-elect Kamala Harris ’ s blackness .
( The official also argued that Bolsonaro , as well as Putin and Xi , was right to not congratulate Biden , after calling the Democrat ’ s victory “ nonexistent.
” ) In Mexico , populist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador , who refused to ever concede his own prior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he will not congratulate the president-elect yet , as he wants to wait for legal matters to be resolved .
His decision has worried key Latin America watchers in the United States , including Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro , who serves as vice chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee .
“ This represents a stunning diplomatic failure … at a time when the incoming Biden Administration is looking to usher in a new era of friendship and cooperation with Mexico , ” Castro , who is Mexican American , said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Minister Janez Jansa , has gone so far as to congratulate Trump , doing so on Wednesday , long before the race was called by the Associated Press and television networks on Saturday .
Since then he has doubled down , retweeting conspiracy theories and Fox News clips prompting allegations of fraud .
In Estonia , the country ’ s far-right interior minister Mart Helme announced his resignation on Monday after making a series of unfounded comments in a radio interview over the weekend alleging that the election had been rigged and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Helme ’ s son Martin , who also serves as finance minister , also alleged that the elections were falsified , but the younger Helme has not resigned .

While most world leaders have lined up to congratulate U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on winning the 2020 election, a handful of the world’s strongmen have been conspicuous by their absence. From Russia to Latin America to China, some leaders have so far held their tongues on President Donald Trump’s loss, a stark reminder of the friends he made along the way.
While most world leaders have lined up to congratulate U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on winning the 2020 election, a handful of the world’s strongmen have been conspicuous by their absence. From Russia to Latin America to China, some leaders have so far held their tongues on President Donald Trump’s loss, a stark reminder of the friends he made along the way.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the first to congratulate Trump in 2016, the Kremlin announced on Monday that the Russian leader will not recognize Biden as president-elect until Trump’s spurious legal challenges to the vote have been resolved.
“We believe it’s correct to wait for the official results of the elections to be announced,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a call on Monday. After Putin was reelected in 2018 in an election that opposition activists say was marred by irregularities, Trump’s advisors left an all-caps note in his briefing materials ahead of a call with his Russian counterpart: “DO NOT CONGRATULATE.” He did it anyway.
Peskov’s comments were echoed on Monday by the spokesman of the Chinese foreign ministry. Wang Wenbin acknowledged Biden’s claim of victory but added that Beijing would be watching that “U.S. law and procedures” were followed, according to the BBC. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was repeatedly praised by Trump, also has yet to recognize the results of the U.S. election. (On Tuesday, a day after this article was first published, Erdogan extended his congratulations to President-elect Biden.)
Meanwhile, the two largest countries in Latin America are yet to congratulate Biden. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, one of Trump’s closest allies worldwide who openly endorsed the U.S. president last month, has yet to congratulate either candidate, though he did appear to distance himself from the U.S. president on Friday, calling for “humility” and saying that Trump was “not the most important person in the world.”
The Bolsonaro administration’s first—and so far only—reference to the election results came from the official in charge of promoting Afro-Brazilian culture, who questioned Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s blackness. (The official also argued that Bolsonaro, as well as Putin and Xi, was right to not congratulate Biden, after calling the Democrat’s victory “nonexistent.”)
In Mexico, populist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who refused to ever concede his own prior election loss in 2006, reportedly said that he will not congratulate the president-elect yet, as he wants to wait for legal matters to be resolved. His decision has worried key Latin America watchers in the United States, including Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, who serves as vice chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “This represents a stunning diplomatic failure … at a time when the incoming Biden Administration is looking to usher in a new era of friendship and cooperation with Mexico,” Castro, who is Mexican American, said.
Only one leader, populist Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, has gone so far as to congratulate Trump, doing so on Wednesday, long before the race was called by the Associated Press and television networks on Saturday. Since then he has doubled down, retweeting conspiracy theories and Fox News clips prompting allegations of fraud.
In Estonia, the country’s far-right interior minister Mart Helme announced his resignation on Monday after making a series of unfounded comments in a radio interview over the weekend alleging that the election had been rigged and that Trump would eventually be declared the winner. Helme’s son Martin, who also serves as finance minister, also alleged that the elections were falsified, but the younger Helme has not resigned.
Update, Nov. 11, 2020: This article was updated to reflect the fact that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had congratulated President-elect Joe Biden after publishing.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--For South Korea’s President, Biden’s Win Is Both Good News and Bad News

For South Korea ’ s President , Biden ’ s Win Is Both Good News and Bad News This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
SEOUL—The first thing South Korean President Moon Jae-in tweeted on Sunday was diplomatic congratulations to the new U.S. president-elect , Joe Biden .
“ Congratulations to @ JoeBiden and @ KamalaHarris .
Our alliance is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries is rock-solid .
I very much look forward to working with you for our shared values .
I have great expectations of advancing and opening up the future development of our bilateral relations , ” the tweets read .
“ Katchi kapshida !
” he added , which is the official slogan for the South Korean-U.S. alliance and Korean for “ Let ’ s go together !
” And Moon does have a lot to be happy about when it comes to a Biden administration .
The former vice president is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among South Koreans , who according to Gallup Korea favored Biden 59 percent to 16 percent for Trump .
And Biden would likely de-escalate the ongoing dispute over the shared cost of hosting U.S. troops in Korea .
“ While there haven ’ t been any specific indications of where Biden leans on this issue , it seems likely that they will push for a quick and fair resolution—probably working with South Korea ’ s last offer , ” said Jenny Town , a fellow at the Stimson Center and the deputy director @ @ @ @ @ @ @ watching website .
Clearing up that dispute would remove a source of bilateral acrimony and secure funding for furloughed Korean employees at U.S. bases—a massive boon for Moon .
Where the headaches might come is from Biden ’ s stance on North Korea .
He has ruled out following the same kind of open-arms outreach to Pyongyang that the Trump administration pursued , and will likely have enough domestic and foreign-policy challenges to deal with early in his term .
“ The biggest concern is if North Korea is not high on Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kinds of messages don ’ t get conveyed early and in an expedient and convincing way , it leaves room for North Korea to guess what a Biden administration will do and test its resolve early in likely counterproductive ways , ” Town said .
Biden has said that he will not meet Kim Jong Un , North Korea ’ s leader , without preconditions such as denuclearization .
There are fears here that the United States might revert to former President Barack Obama ’ s approach of “ strategic patience ” when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump administration did manage to set up summits and foster hope of progress in terms of the inter-Korean relationship , but didn ’ t derail North Korea ’ s weapons program .
This fall , the country showed off its biggest , newest missile—one that can hit the continental United States .
But because so much of Moon ’ s political project is tied up with rapprochement and engagement with the North , he would not be interested in a return to the days of strategic patience .
“ Moon ’ s near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him and his party dependent on its success , which has not proven sustainable without international cooperation , ” Town said .
Kim has yet to comment on the results of the U.S. elections , and there ’ s speculation as to whether or not North Korea will test the big new missiles .
But given that there ’ s no interest from the North in denuclearizing , there ’ s little prospect of any further meetings anytime soon between Pyongyang and Washington .
That could give the South a more leading role @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to the waiting game altogether .
While Moon congratulates Biden and emphasizes the alliance , he ’ s bracing for everything from early North Korean provocations to U.S. silence .
“ As Moon ’ s legacy is so tied to North-South relations , he needs the process to continue , ” Town said .

SEOUL—The first thing South Korean President Moon Jae-in tweeted on Sunday was diplomatic congratulations to the new U.S. president-elect, Joe Biden.
SEOUL—The first thing South Korean President Moon Jae-in tweeted on Sunday was diplomatic congratulations to the new U.S. president-elect, Joe Biden.
“Congratulations to @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris. Our alliance is strong and the bond between our two countries is rock-solid. I very much look forward to working with you for our shared values. I have great expectations of advancing and opening up the future development of our bilateral relations,” the tweets read.
“Katchi kapshida!” he added, which is the official slogan for the South Korean-U.S. alliance and Korean for “Let’s go together!”
And Moon does have a lot to be happy about when it comes to a Biden administration. The former vice president is a lot more popular than President Donald Trump among South Koreans, who according to Gallup Korea favored Biden 59 percent to 16 percent for Trump. And Biden would likely de-escalate the ongoing dispute over the shared cost of hosting U.S. troops in Korea.
“While there haven’t been any specific indications of where Biden leans on this issue, it seems likely that they will push for a quick and fair resolution—probably working with South Korea’s last offer,” said Jenny Town, a fellow at the Stimson Center and the deputy director of 38 North, a North Korea watching website.
Clearing up that dispute would remove a source of bilateral acrimony and secure funding for furloughed Korean employees at U.S. bases—a massive boon for Moon.
Where the headaches might come is from Biden’s stance on North Korea. He has ruled out following the same kind of open-arms outreach to Pyongyang that the Trump administration pursued, and will likely have enough domestic and foreign-policy challenges to deal with early in his term.
“The biggest concern is if North Korea is not high on Biden’s priority list, and these kinds of messages don’t get conveyed early and in an expedient and convincing way, it leaves room for North Korea to guess what a Biden administration will do and test its resolve early in likely counterproductive ways,” Town said.
Biden has said that he will not meet Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, without preconditions such as denuclearization. There are fears here that the United States might revert to former President Barack Obama’s approach of “strategic patience” when it comes to North Korea. The Trump administration did manage to set up summits and foster hope of progress in terms of the inter-Korean relationship, but didn’t derail North Korea’s weapons program. This fall, the country showed off its biggest, newest missile—one that can hit the continental United States.
But because so much of Moon’s political project is tied up with rapprochement and engagement with the North, he would not be interested in a return to the days of strategic patience.
“Moon’s near sole focus on North-South relations left both him and his party dependent on its success, which has not proven sustainable without international cooperation,” Town said.
Kim has yet to comment on the results of the U.S. elections, and there’s speculation as to whether or not North Korea will test the big new missiles. But given that there’s no interest from the North in denuclearizing, there’s little prospect of any further meetings anytime soon between Pyongyang and Washington.
That could give the South a more leading role in improving relations—or could simply mean going back to the waiting game altogether. While Moon congratulates Biden and emphasizes the alliance, he’s bracing for everything from early North Korean provocations to U.S. silence.
“As Moon’s legacy is so tied to North-South relations, he needs the process to continue,” Town said.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--Le Pen Is Silent, But Macron Will Welcome Trump’s Demise

Le Pen Is Silent , But Macron Will Welcome Trump ’ s Demise This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
PARIS—Subdued satisfaction was the most that French politicians offered to Joe Biden following the announcement of his presidential election win over the weekend .
President Emmanuel Macron summed up the mood with a low-key tweet about the Democratic Party victors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president .
Congratulations Joe Biden and Kamala Harris .
We have a lot to do to overcome today ’ s challenges .
Let ’ s work together !
” Macron is overrun with problems at home , not least the coronavirus pandemic , and events across the Atlantic are a very low priority right now .
The fact that we will be well into a very uncertain 2021 before Trump quits the White House , and that he will be fighting his eviction every step of the way , made the latest news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Marine Le Pen—leader of the far-right Rassemblement National ( National Rally , formerly the National Front ) and currently Macron ’ s most effective rival—was spectacularly nonplussed .
She was the first in France to congratulate Trump and the Republicans in 2016 , but this time had not a single word for the successful Democratic candidates .
Instead , her deputy , Jordan Bardella , suggested that untrustworthy liberal journalists had helped dislodge—somebody who shares Le Pen ’ s highly aggressive , reactionary outlook .
Bardella tweeted : “ Regardless of who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already be said that there is an overwhelming loser : media ethics …Anti-Trump propaganda , by a system that believes itself to be all-powerful , has reached unprecedented levels .
Very disturbing.
” Speaking of alleged fake news , ridiculous reports about the bells of Paris ringing out for Biden were among the low points of election coverage in France .
Social media users ( who should know better ) even claimed that the Eiffel Tower was putting on a light show for the president-elect .
The videos that accompanied these claims were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the impression that the French Republic , and indeed the religious institutions within it , might celebrate the result of a foreign election .
In fact , the Eiffel Tower lights go on every night , even during a coronavirus lockdown when tourists and other visitors are not allowed anywhere near the monument .
As for the bells , there would be more chance of Quasimodo and Esmeralda absconding to Las Vegas to get married in an Elvis chapel than a Paris priest authorizing campanology on behalf of Biden ( even if he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since JFK ) .
Any ringing was because of automatic systems that had been left on since before the start of lockdown .
Some might claim that such fake news does not really matter , and that the beginning of the end of Trump ’ s America is what the French should indeed be joyous about .
In fact , such manipulated information has thrived across the world over the last four years , and much of it has emanated from the Trump administration .
This was a president who once said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of immigrants creating no-go areas—which of course is not true .
It was therefore sad to see his demise being marked with just the kind of lies about France for which he had become notorious .
During one of Trump ’ s anti-Paris outbursts , Anne Hidalgo , the mayor of Paris—herself an immigrant from Spain—had tweeted a photo of herself with Mickey and Minnie Mouse inviting Trump to France to “ celebrate the dynamism and the spirit of openness of Paris.
” It ’ s doubtful that the invitation remains open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can look forward—bells or not—to a very warm welcome .

PARIS—Subdued satisfaction was the most that French politicians offered to Joe Biden following the announcement of his presidential election win over the weekend.
PARIS—Subdued satisfaction was the most that French politicians offered to Joe Biden following the announcement of his presidential election win over the weekend.
President Emmanuel Macron summed up the mood with a low-key tweet about the Democratic Party victors: “The Americans have chosen their president. Congratulations Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. We have a lot to do to overcome today’s challenges. Let’s work together!”
Macron is overrun with problems at home, not least the coronavirus pandemic, and events across the Atlantic are a very low priority right now.
The fact that we will be well into a very uncertain 2021 before Trump quits the White House, and that he will be fighting his eviction every step of the way, made the latest news from the United States even less inspiring.
Marine Le Pen—leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, formerly the National Front) and currently Macron’s most effective rival—was spectacularly nonplussed.
She was the first in France to congratulate Trump and the Republicans in 2016, but this time had not a single word for the successful Democratic candidates.
Instead, her deputy, Jordan Bardella, suggested that untrustworthy liberal journalists had helped dislodge—somebody who shares Le Pen’s highly aggressive, reactionary outlook.
Bardella tweeted: “Regardless of who wins the legal action, it can already be said that there is an overwhelming loser: media ethics …Anti-Trump propaganda, by a system that believes itself to be all-powerful, has reached unprecedented levels. Very disturbing.”
Speaking of alleged fake news, ridiculous reports about the bells of Paris ringing out for Biden were among the low points of election coverage in France.
Social media users (who should know better) even claimed that the Eiffel Tower was putting on a light show for the president-elect.
The videos that accompanied these claims were circulated by thousands of people, giving the impression that the French Republic, and indeed the religious institutions within it, might celebrate the result of a foreign election.
In fact, the Eiffel Tower lights go on every night, even during a coronavirus lockdown when tourists and other visitors are not allowed anywhere near the monument.
As for the bells, there would be more chance of Quasimodo and Esmeralda absconding to Las Vegas to get married in an Elvis chapel than a Paris priest authorizing campanology on behalf of Biden (even if he will be the first Roman Catholic president since JFK).
Any ringing was because of automatic systems that had been left on since before the start of lockdown.
Some might claim that such fake news does not really matter, and that the beginning of the end of Trump’s America is what the French should indeed be joyous about.
In fact, such manipulated information has thrived across the world over the last four years, and much of it has emanated from the Trump administration. This was a president who once said that “Paris is no longer Paris” because of immigrants creating no-go areas—which of course is not true.
It was therefore sad to see his demise being marked with just the kind of lies about France for which he had become notorious.
During one of Trump’s anti-Paris outbursts, Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris—herself an immigrant from Spain—had tweeted a photo of herself with Mickey and Minnie Mouse inviting Trump to France to “celebrate the dynamism and the spirit of openness of Paris.”
It’s doubtful that the invitation remains open to the outgoing leader, but Biden can look forward—bells or not—to a very warm welcome.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-09--Biden’s Election Will Bring Continuity for India’s Military

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is a known quantity in India .
He has long championed strong ties with the country and , as part of the Obama administration , was instrumental in putting the relationship on a good trajectory in those years .
As far back as 2006 , in fact , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with India was the one Washington most needed to get right—for its own safety .
As president , Biden will likely be able to deliver when it comes to India .
In more ways than one , good ties with New Delhi enjoy a strong bipartisan consensus in the U.S. political establishment .
From President George W. Bush to Barack Obama and then to Donald Trump , successive administrations on both sides have contributed toward a robust relationship—particularly because , as the center of global political and economic gravity shifts to the Indo-Pacific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an unprecedented convergence of interests .
In all this , defense ties have been key .
It was the Obama administration that named India a Major Defense Partner , and as a result of that India is now treated on par with America ’ s closest allies in the sharing of sensitive technologies .
Obama also pushed hard for the signing of further defense agreements , which the Indian government was not ready to pursue until Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power in 2014 .
The most recent pact , the Basic Exchange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sharing of geospatial intelligence and information , was signed just last month .
The importance of such agreements can not be overestimated at a time when India is engaged in a higher number of military exercises with the United States than with any other country , and both are cornerstones of the Quadrilateral Group ( made up of them and Australia and Japan ) in the Indo-Pacific .
Meanwhile , defense trade between the two countries has been growing and has recently exceeded the $ 20 billion mark .
As India continues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reduce dependence on Moscow , and as the United States beefs up its partnerships with like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific , both could benefit by working together .
India is keen to ensure that major defense manufacturers set up production facilities in India as part of its “ Make in India ” initiative to boost domestic manufacturing , and American defense manufactures could profit , as well , from such partnerships .
After taking office , the Biden administration might find that defense engagement is the most robust element of an increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all probability , build on it .
That might entail not only facilitating more robust defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific but also ensuring that the defense industries of the two nations work more closely in sharing technologies and building capacities .

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is a known quantity in India. He has long championed strong ties with the country and, as part of the Obama administration, was instrumental in putting the relationship on a good trajectory in those years. As far back as 2006, in fact, Biden argued that the United States’ partnership with India was the one Washington most needed to get right—for its own safety.
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is a known quantity in India. He has long championed strong ties with the country and, as part of the Obama administration, was instrumental in putting the relationship on a good trajectory in those years. As far back as 2006, in fact, Biden argued that the United States’ partnership with India was the one Washington most needed to get right—for its own safety.
As president, Biden will likely be able to deliver when it comes to India. In more ways than one, good ties with New Delhi enjoy a strong bipartisan consensus in the U.S. political establishment. From President George W. Bush to Barack Obama and then to Donald Trump, successive administrations on both sides have contributed toward a robust relationship—particularly because, as the center of global political and economic gravity shifts to the Indo-Pacific, India and the United States enjoy an unprecedented convergence of interests.
In all this, defense ties have been key. It was the Obama administration that named India a Major Defense Partner, and as a result of that India is now treated on par with America’s closest allies in the sharing of sensitive technologies. Obama also pushed hard for the signing of further defense agreements, which the Indian government was not ready to pursue until Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power in 2014. The most recent pact, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation on the sharing of geospatial intelligence and information, was signed just last month. The importance of such agreements cannot be overestimated at a time when India is engaged in a higher number of military exercises with the United States than with any other country, and both are cornerstones of the Quadrilateral Group (made up of them and Australia and Japan) in the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, defense trade between the two countries has been growing and has recently exceeded the $20 billion mark. As India continues to work to diversifying its defense supplies to reduce dependence on Moscow, and as the United States beefs up its partnerships with like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific, both could benefit by working together. India is keen to ensure that major defense manufacturers set up production facilities in India as part of its “Make in India” initiative to boost domestic manufacturing, and American defense manufactures could profit, as well, from such partnerships.
After taking office, the Biden administration might find that defense engagement is the most robust element of an increasingly multifaceted Indo-U.S. partnership and will, in all probability, build on it. That might entail not only facilitating more robust defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific but also ensuring that the defense industries of the two nations work more closely in sharing technologies and building capacities.