foreignpolicy--2020-03-23--Without Mass Testing, the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Keep Spreading

Without Mass Testing , the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Keep Spreading When a patient arrived at a Chinese hospital with acute respiratory distress in mid-December 2019 , there was uncertainty about what was causing these symptoms .
Known pathogens were quickly ruled out : It was not SARS , MERS , or influenza—and , quickly , a novel coronavirus was detected .
When doctors tried to raise the alarm , police threatened them , and health officials initially said they had no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission .
When China finally informed the World Health Organization of the outbreak through its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it was clear the government was privately worried that it was not going to be easy to contain or manage .
By Jan. 23 , China had 571 cases and a death toll of 17 .
Infectious disease specialists who create predictive models of epidemics immediately sounded the alarm about the new coronavirus disease—known as COVID-19—noting that China could experience 100,000 new infections per day with hundreds of millions of people becoming infected .
By the following day , the central government of China had imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people .
But even before these measures were implemented , the virus had already started spreading to Hong Kong and other countries such as Singapore , South Korea , and beyond .
South Korea reported more than 2,000 total confirmed cases on Feb. 28 .
Then , in early March , something unexpected occurred : The exponential increase of cases in these countries stared to flatten .
China has managed to keep its confirmed cases under 90,000 , with daily new cases coming down .
Italy , which recorded its first cases of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost more of its citizens ( more than 6,000 as of March 23 ) to the disease than China has .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
The severe Chinese response bought other countries time , but not all leaders took advantage of it .
Before the outbreak reached their shores , heads of state across the world each decided to plan—or not plan—for this outbreak in their own way .
Some , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dangers on national television , while others , such as South Korean President Moon Jae-in , acted early and decisively .
Indeed , South Korea stands out as an exemplar .
After one of the world ’ s largest initial outbreaks outside China , it has managed to bring daily new cases into relative decline without imposing draconian nationwide lockdown measures .
Comparing Italy to South Korea shows how dramatic the differences can be .
On March 1 , Italy had only 1,701 cases and 41 deaths , while South Korea had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks later , on March 22 , Italy ’ s caseload had exploded to 59,138 , with 5,476 deaths , while South Korea ’ s total caseload had merely doubled to 8,897 , with 104 deaths .
The key to South Korea ’ s success has been speed and an early push toward mass testing , rigorous contact tracing , and mandatory quarantine for anyone near a carrier of the virus .
The country , with a population of 51 million , tests more than 20,000 people a day at more than 600 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that not only track individuals if they have tested positive , but also warn them if they might have been exposed to a known case .
Yet in the United States and the United Kingdom , there is a public and internal government debate over whether testing matters—particularly for those who are only having minor symptoms .
As of March 20 , South Korea ’ s rate of testing was 6,148 per million people , while the United Kingdom was testing only 960 people per million and the United States just 314 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ identify who has the disease , these officials ask .
In fact , the U.K. government even took a strategic decision on March 12 to stop testing those who have mild symptoms , those coming into hospitals but not admitted , or even the country ’ s health workforce .
This was a dangerous and shortsighted decision , as Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s U-turn less than a week later , when he committed to a goal of 25,000 tests per day , reveals .
There are five key reasons why testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much more likely to isolate themselves if they are confirmed as a virus carrier .
Government advice has been for individuals to isolate themselves for 7 or 14 days ( depending on the country ) in order not to spread the virus beyond their household .
However , this is unrealistic for those who can only earn a living by showing up at work and depend on daily income , as well as those who wonder if they really have COVID-19 or are just having another of the seasonal viruses that circulate during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with HIV , knowing one ’ s status can ensure that people understand the ramifications of their actions and how they need to act responsibly to prevent further spread .
Given that presymptomatic transmission accounts for a large number of cases , testing is required to ensure that carriers of the coronavirus are not unknowingly passing it on to others .
Second , to break chains of transmission , public health officials need to know where the virus is and who has been exposed to it .
Given that some studies estimate that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of cases , testing is required to ensure that carriers of the coronavirus are not unknowingly passing it on to others .
In addition , close contacts of virus carriers must be informed so that they isolate themselves , meaning colleagues at work , people in the same apartment building , or those who have been in the same cafes , shops , trains , or planes .
This is a classic public-health technique and one of the only ways to build a robust picture of who could have possibly been exposed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Third , as local authorities scramble to allocate hospitals the right amount of personal protective equipment for staff , appropriate equipment such as ventilators and oxygen and beds , and even personnel , they need to predict how many people will be arriving in intensive care units in the coming days .
By testing who has COVID-19 at an early stage , and by having existing data on what percentage of these people will require further care in hospitals , officials can make these decisions based on more precise and accurate data so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as China and South Korea have shown , certain parts of a country can become hot spots with a high number of cases .
This is already happening in London , given the number of people arriving in hospital who are seriously ill with COVID-19 .
But rather than gauging this by looking at the number of people currently requiring hospital admission—which is actually a glimpse of past community transmission—by actively testing , public health authorities could see where new hot spots are emerging , and inside those hot spots , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become infected in one place , such as during church services or eating at restaurants .
It makes a huge difference if a country has 50 , 500 , or 50,000 cases .
Without accurate numbers , governments and doctors are trying to fight a fire without knowing how large the blaze is , or where unseen embers are burning .
Finally , the World Health Organization is producing daily reports noting the number of confirmed cases per country in order to track the evolution of the outbreak , but the accuracy of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests .
Without widespread testing of all cases including those with mild symptoms or those who are asymptomatic virus carriers , no one knows how large the problem is .
It makes a huge difference if a country has 50 cases , 500 cases , or 50,000 cases , and without accurate numbers , governments and doctors are trying to fight a fire without knowing how large the blaze is , or where unseen embers are burning .
Every outbreak starts and ends with a diagnostic test .
The director-general of the World @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has made it clear that the “ backbone ” of every country ’ s public health response to this outbreak is testing , isolation , and contact tracing—and South Korea is showing how this model ultimately pays off in reducing spread , taking pressure off health services , and keeping its death rate one of the lowest in the world .
Rather than thinking they know best , the U.S. and U.K. governments should be listening and learning from other countries and the World Health Organization , and realizing that East Asian nations @ @ @ @ @ @

When a patient arrived at a Chinese hospital with acute respiratory distress in mid-December 2019, there was uncertainty about what was causing these symptoms. Known pathogens were quickly ruled out: It was not SARS, MERS, or influenza—and, quickly, a novel coronavirus was detected. When doctors tried to raise the alarm, police threatened them, and health officials initially said they had no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission.
When a patient arrived at a Chinese hospital with acute respiratory distress in mid-December 2019, there was uncertainty about what was causing these symptoms. Known pathogens were quickly ruled out: It was not SARS, MERS, or influenza—and, quickly, a novel coronavirus was detected. When doctors tried to raise the alarm, police threatened them, and health officials initially said they had no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission.
When China finally informed the World Health Organization of the outbreak through its China office on Dec. 31, 2019, it was clear the government was privately worried that it was not going to be easy to contain or manage.
By Jan. 23, China had 571 cases and a death toll of 17. Infectious disease specialists who create predictive models of epidemics immediately sounded the alarm about the new coronavirus disease—known as COVID-19—noting that China could experience 100,000 new infections per day with hundreds of millions of people becoming infected. By the following day, the central government of China had imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province affecting 56 million people.
But even before these measures were implemented, the virus had already started spreading to Hong Kong and other countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and beyond. South Korea reported more than 2,000 total confirmed cases on Feb. 28. Then, in early March, something unexpected occurred: The exponential increase of cases in these countries stared to flatten. China has managed to keep its confirmed cases under 90,000, with daily new cases coming down. Italy, which recorded its first cases of COVID-19 on Jan. 30, has now lost more of its citizens (more than 6,000 as of March 23) to the disease than China has.
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The severe Chinese response bought other countries time, but not all leaders took advantage of it. Before the outbreak reached their shores, heads of state across the world each decided to plan—or not plan—for this outbreak in their own way. Some, such as U.S. President Donald Trump, downplayed the dangers on national television, while others, such as South Korean President Moon Jae-in, acted early and decisively.
Indeed, South Korea stands out as an exemplar. After one of the world’s largest initial outbreaks outside China, it has managed to bring daily new cases into relative decline without imposing draconian nationwide lockdown measures. Comparing Italy to South Korea shows how dramatic the differences can be. On March 1, Italy had only 1,701 cases and 41 deaths, while South Korea had 3,736 cases and 21 deaths. Three weeks later, on March 22, Italy’s caseload had exploded to 59,138, with 5,476 deaths, while South Korea’s total caseload had merely doubled to 8,897, with 104 deaths.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
The key to South Korea’s success has been speed and an early push toward mass testing, rigorous contact tracing, and mandatory quarantine for anyone near a carrier of the virus. The country, with a population of 51 million, tests more than 20,000 people a day at more than 600 testing sites nationwide, while integrating apps that not only track individuals if they have tested positive, but also warn them if they might have been exposed to a known case.
Yet in the United States and the United Kingdom, there is a public and internal government debate over whether testing matters—particularly for those who are only having minor symptoms. As of March 20, South Korea’s rate of testing was 6,148 per million people, while the United Kingdom was testing only 960 people per million and the United States just 314. Why waste resources and time trying to identify who has the disease, these officials ask.
In fact, the U.K. government even took a strategic decision on March 12 to stop testing those who have mild symptoms, those coming into hospitals but not admitted, or even the country’s health workforce. This was a dangerous and shortsighted decision, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s U-turn less than a week later, when he committed to a goal of 25,000 tests per day, reveals.
There are five key reasons why testing matters.
First, people generally seem much more likely to isolate themselves if they are confirmed as a virus carrier. Government advice has been for individuals to isolate themselves for 7 or 14 days (depending on the country) in order not to spread the virus beyond their household. However, this is unrealistic for those who can only earn a living by showing up at work and depend on daily income, as well as those who wonder if they really have COVID-19 or are just having another of the seasonal viruses that circulate during the winter and early spring. As with HIV, knowing one’s status can ensure that people understand the ramifications of their actions and how they need to act responsibly to prevent further spread.
Given that presymptomatic transmission accounts for a large number of cases, testing is required to ensure that carriers of the coronavirus are not unknowingly passing it on to others.
Second, to break chains of transmission, public health officials need to know where the virus is and who has been exposed to it. Given that some studies estimate that presymptomatic transmission accounts for approximately 50 percent of cases, testing is required to ensure that carriers of the coronavirus are not unknowingly passing it on to others. In addition, close contacts of virus carriers must be informed so that they isolate themselves, meaning colleagues at work, people in the same apartment building, or those who have been in the same cafes, shops, trains, or planes. This is a classic public-health technique and one of the only ways to build a robust picture of who could have possibly been exposed to the virus and be carrying it.
Third, as local authorities scramble to allocate hospitals the right amount of personal protective equipment for staff, appropriate equipment such as ventilators and oxygen and beds, and even personnel, they need to predict how many people will be arriving in intensive care units in the coming days. By testing who has COVID-19 at an early stage, and by having existing data on what percentage of these people will require further care in hospitals, officials can make these decisions based on more precise and accurate data so that resources can flow appropriately.
Fourth, as China and South Korea have shown, certain parts of a country can become hot spots with a high number of cases. This is already happening in London, given the number of people arriving in hospital who are seriously ill with COVID-19. But rather than gauging this by looking at the number of people currently requiring hospital admission—which is actually a glimpse of past community transmission—by actively testing, public health authorities could see where new hot spots are emerging , and inside those hot spots, the role of superspreading events where numerous people become infected in one place, such as during church services or eating at restaurants.
It makes a huge difference if a country has 50, 500, or 50,000 cases. Without accurate numbers, governments and doctors are trying to fight a fire without knowing how large the blaze is, or where unseen embers are burning.
Finally, the World Health Organization is producing daily reports noting the number of confirmed cases per country in order to track the evolution of the outbreak, but the accuracy of these numbers is reliant on actually doing tests. Without widespread testing of all cases including those with mild symptoms or those who are asymptomatic virus carriers, no one knows how large the problem is. It makes a huge difference if a country has 50 cases, 500 cases, or 50,000 cases, and without accurate numbers, governments and doctors are trying to fight a fire without knowing how large the blaze is, or where unseen embers are burning.
Every outbreak starts and ends with a diagnostic test. The director-general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has made it clear that the “backbone” of every country’s public health response to this outbreak is testing, isolation, and contact tracing—and South Korea is showing how this model ultimately pays off in reducing spread, taking pressure off health services, and keeping its death rate one of the lowest in the world.
Rather than thinking they know best, the U.S. and U.K. governments should be listening and learning from other countries and the World Health Organization, and realizing that East Asian nations are now leading the way.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-23--China’s Debt Diplomacy Will Get a Coronavirus Boost

Political decisions made in China at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak took a situation that could have been containable and made it an unstoppable global pandemic .
The immediate social , political , and economic consequences will be with us for at least the next two years .
But the indirect effects may permanently shift the world .
These effects will be felt particularly acutely in China ’ s growing sphere of influence , where Beijing has largely deployed a debt-based model of imperial control .
As these countries frantically attempt to manage the economic and financial consequences of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ service their debts to Beijing—which will expect more favors , and the ceding of more sovereignty , as the cost of debt relief .
Beijing is unlikely to pause and consider the consequences of squeezing these countries at such a vulnerable moment .
And this presents a potentially new U.S. administration with the opportunity to regain some moral leadership as the more benevolent of the two dominant global empires by leading a program of international debt relief and reconstruction through its own , venerable Bretton Woods infrastructure .
Right now , China , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is winning the soft power battle against a United States that has only just begun to tackle the problem at home .
Even as American politicians attempt to reshape the U.S. economy and society to handle the virus , they need to be thinking about the future .
Counting the cost of the pandemic is premature at this point .
It ’ s still not clear how the disease will continue to evolve and spread through the global population , nor how to model the effects of the diverging national policies taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initial figure of some $ 2.8 trillion has already been floated .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
Economic suffering is inevitable ; as unemployment numbers grow and small businesses stare down the barrel of bankruptcy , it ’ s already arrived for many .
Some may be more resilient than others , but dependent developing countries such as Liberia and Niger are going to be especially vulnerable .
Their capacity to respond to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relatively limited resources .
And preexisting exposure to debt can put them in a real bind when forced to make choices between the lives of their citizens and becoming even more vulnerable to powerful creditors , most notably China .
The role of debt in China ’ s expansion of its sphere of influence along the Belt and Road is already well documented and understood .
So-called “ debt-trap diplomacy ” has already seen Sri Lanka effectively lose sovereign control of one port on the Indian Ocean .
Djibouti , Tajikistan , Kyrgyzstan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pakistan , and Montenegro have all been identified as at risk of similarly losing sovereign control over areas of interest to China , as they all already owe more than 45 percent of their gross domestic products to Beijing over Belt and Road projects .
Even as the Chinese , European , and U.S. economies struggle under the costs of the pandemic , they at least have large enough , diverse enough , robust enough economic bases that their overall internal structures and their relative positions in the geopolitical pecking order are unlikely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small , undiversified , fragile economic models can be utterly broken by the global economic shock .
That will leave them at the mercy of Beijing .
And Beijing is becoming adept at translating outstanding debts into foreign assets—the most flagrant example being the Hambantota port project in Sri Lanka .
Despite every feasibility study showing that the project was not viable and after traditional lenders such as India and the World Bank turned it down , Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa approached China , which was more than happy to green light @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failed as expected and Colombo could not service its debt , Beijing enthusiastically took control of the port under a 99-year lease , along with 150,000 acres of land around it .
We could be looking at permanent concessions of sovereign territory—for example , around the Chinese base in Djibouti and deals similar to Hambantota in Pakistan , Maldives , and perhaps even in the Caribbean—if the United States does not intervene to counteract such demands .
China has learned from the experience of the Macao and Hong Kong concessions in past centuries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ports near target markets in order to expand its own empire .
And it will not let such an opportunity for expansion pass it by—even as it carries the weight of moral responsibility for the global spread of COVID-19 .
By contrast , in the wake of the devastation of World War II , the United States pioneered a model of global hegemony based on sponsoring economic reconstruction .
As the Cold War developed , this model of hegemony became an increasingly tight-fisted model of imperial control due to the need to contain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lessons of the initial successes of the Marshall Plan and the Bretton Woods system should not be forgotten .
Given the relative economic might of the United States , helping entire continents out of economic devastation is relatively cheap—and pays economic and security dividends for decades .
At the same time , this pandemic also illustrates the need for active U.S. global involvement along the lines of the Marshall Plan model .
In the globalized world in which we live , any number of things happening on the other side of the planet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the homeland : from our health to our economy and our political system .
Had we successfully promoted more open societies around the world , like we did in South Korea—which is leading the charge in combating the disease—both our health and our economy would now be in much better shape , for example .
China is likely to fail to appreciate the pressures the pandemic will have on its newly acquired client states along the Belt and Road .
Conversely , China is likely to fail to appreciate the pressures the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states along the Belt and Road , and it is likely to squander its influence and soft power in many regions with its established practice of weaponizing debt .
The arrogance of the Chinese tone has been obvious in its dealings with the rest of the world , with the People ’ s Daily trumpeting the virus cases that have overtaken those in China—at least on paper—and attempts to use China ’ s manufacturing capability to force political concessions from others .
If China continues down this path , this will present the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt forgiveness .
This would likely happen through the Bretton Woods institutions , the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank , which could offer effective debt relief ( call it “ debt restructuring ” ) to countries that are buckling under Chinese-issued debt .
If the approach is taken , it would mark a second dawn for America as a “ benevolent empire , ” after two decades of Washington trying and failing to impose its will on the world through its overwhelming military prowess .
For this to work , however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a different administration .
Whatever your view of the Trump administration , it represents , in its own words , an “ America first ” vision of hegemony , which is not compatible with the post-World War II model of American preeminence as a benevolent empire—nor with the moral leadership to be claimed in the aftermath of this global crisis .
For the past two decades , as the United States drifted toward the psychological safety blanket of militarism—where it felt that its unassailable military might meant it did not have to concern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power—China moved in on the global stage as a potential partner ruled principally by economic rationality , which dictated cooperation with anyone who was willing to be friendly with Beijing .
But in recent years , as China has become more assertive militarily and begun to weaponize debt and other levers of economic power , that conceit has been exposed .
China is not the cooperative , benevolent empire the rest of the world was looking for while the United States was self-indulgently flexing its militarily muscle around the globe .
The United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to become the hegemon the rest of the world wants and needs it to be .
If it has the wisdom to seize this chance , the world will be bound to it by the strongest kind of debt there is : a debt of gratitude .

Political decisions made in China at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak took a situation that could have been containable and made it an unstoppable global pandemic. The immediate social, political, and economic consequences will be with us for at least the next two years. But the indirect effects may permanently shift the world.
Political decisions made in China at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak took a situation that could have been containable and made it an unstoppable global pandemic. The immediate social, political, and economic consequences will be with us for at least the next two years. But the indirect effects may permanently shift the world.
These effects will be felt particularly acutely in China’s growing sphere of influence, where Beijing has largely deployed a debt-based model of imperial control. As these countries frantically attempt to manage the economic and financial consequences of the pandemic, they will struggle to service their debts to Beijing—which will expect more favors, and the ceding of more sovereignty, as the cost of debt relief.
Beijing is unlikely to pause and consider the consequences of squeezing these countries at such a vulnerable moment. And this presents a potentially new U.S. administration with the opportunity to regain some moral leadership as the more benevolent of the two dominant global empires by leading a program of international debt relief and reconstruction through its own, venerable Bretton Woods infrastructure. Right now, China, with its relief flights and medical outreach, is winning the soft power battle against a United States that has only just begun to tackle the problem at home. Even as American politicians attempt to reshape the U.S. economy and society to handle the virus, they need to be thinking about the future.
Counting the cost of the pandemic is premature at this point. It’s still not clear how the disease will continue to evolve and spread through the global population, nor how to model the effects of the diverging national policies taken to handle it. Nevertheless, an initial figure of some $2.8 trillion has already been floated.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Economic suffering is inevitable; as unemployment numbers grow and small businesses stare down the barrel of bankruptcy, it’s already arrived for many. Some may be more resilient than others, but dependent developing countries such as Liberia and Niger are going to be especially vulnerable. Their capacity to respond to the pandemic will be constrained by their relatively limited resources. And preexisting exposure to debt can put them in a real bind when forced to make choices between the lives of their citizens and becoming even more vulnerable to powerful creditors, most notably China.
The role of debt in China’s expansion of its sphere of influence along the Belt and Road is already well documented and understood. So-called “debt-trap diplomacy” has already seen Sri Lanka effectively lose sovereign control of one port on the Indian Ocean. Djibouti, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Pakistan, and Montenegro have all been identified as at risk of similarly losing sovereign control over areas of interest to China, as they all already owe more than 45 percent of their gross domestic products to Beijing over Belt and Road projects.
Even as the Chinese, European, and U.S. economies struggle under the costs of the pandemic, they at least have large enough, diverse enough, robust enough economic bases that their overall internal structures and their relative positions in the geopolitical pecking order are unlikely to be affected. Poor countries with small, undiversified, fragile economic models can be utterly broken by the global economic shock. That will leave them at the mercy of Beijing.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
And Beijing is becoming adept at translating outstanding debts into foreign assets—the most flagrant example being the Hambantota port project in Sri Lanka. Despite every feasibility study showing that the project was not viable and after traditional lenders such as India and the World Bank turned it down, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa approached China, which was more than happy to green light every request. When the port project failed as expected and Colombo could not service its debt, Beijing enthusiastically took control of the port under a 99-year lease, along with 150,000 acres of land around it.
We could be looking at permanent concessions of sovereign territory—for example, around the Chinese base in Djibouti and deals similar to Hambantota in Pakistan, Maldives, and perhaps even in the Caribbean—if the United States does not intervene to counteract such demands. China has learned from the experience of the Macao and Hong Kong concessions in past centuries and understands the value of controlling such ports near target markets in order to expand its own empire. And it will not let such an opportunity for expansion pass it by—even as it carries the weight of moral responsibility for the global spread of COVID-19.
By contrast, in the wake of the devastation of World War II, the United States pioneered a model of global hegemony based on sponsoring economic reconstruction. As the Cold War developed, this model of hegemony became an increasingly tight-fisted model of imperial control due to the need to contain the rival Soviet empire, but the lessons of the initial successes of the Marshall Plan and the Bretton Woods system should not be forgotten. Given the relative economic might of the United States, helping entire continents out of economic devastation is relatively cheap—and pays economic and security dividends for decades.
At the same time, this pandemic also illustrates the need for active U.S. global involvement along the lines of the Marshall Plan model. In the globalized world in which we live, any number of things happening on the other side of the planet will have swift and profound consequences for the homeland: from our health to our economy and our political system. Had we successfully promoted more open societies around the world, like we did in South Korea—which is leading the charge in combating the disease—both our health and our economy would now be in much better shape, for example.
China is likely to fail to appreciate the pressures the pandemic will have on its newly acquired client states along the Belt and Road.
Conversely, China is likely to fail to appreciate the pressures the pandemic will have on its newly acquired client states along the Belt and Road, and it is likely to squander its influence and soft power in many regions with its established practice of weaponizing debt. The arrogance of the Chinese tone has been obvious in its dealings with the rest of the world, with the People’s Daily trumpeting the virus cases that have overtaken those in China—at least on paper—and attempts to use China’s manufacturing capability to force political concessions from others.
If China continues down this path, this will present the United States with an opportunity to weaponize debt forgiveness. This would likely happen through the Bretton Woods institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which could offer effective debt relief (call it “debt restructuring”) to countries that are buckling under Chinese-issued debt. If the approach is taken, it would mark a second dawn for America as a “benevolent empire,” after two decades of Washington trying and failing to impose its will on the world through its overwhelming military prowess.
For this to work, however, Washington may need to be under a different administration. Whatever your view of the Trump administration, it represents, in its own words, an “America first” vision of hegemony, which is not compatible with the post-World War II model of American preeminence as a benevolent empire—nor with the moral leadership to be claimed in the aftermath of this global crisis.
For the past two decades, as the United States drifted toward the psychological safety blanket of militarism—where it felt that its unassailable military might meant it did not have to concern itself with the other complexities of global power—China moved in on the global stage as a potential partner ruled principally by economic rationality, which dictated cooperation with anyone who was willing to be friendly with Beijing.
But in recent years, as China has become more assertive militarily and begun to weaponize debt and other levers of economic power, that conceit has been exposed. China is not the cooperative, benevolent empire the rest of the world was looking for while the United States was self-indulgently flexing its militarily muscle around the globe.
The United States has been given a second chance to become the hegemon the rest of the world wants and needs it to be. If it has the wisdom to seize this chance, the world will be bound to it by the strongest kind of debt there is: a debt of gratitude.


The Next Wave

The United Nations is preparing to issue a major funding appeal for more than $ 1.5 billion on Wednesday to prepare for outbreaks of the new coronavirus in areas suffering some of the worst humanitarian crises in the world , including Gaza , Myanmar , Syria , South Sudan , and Yemen , according to diplomatic and relief officials familiar with the plan .
“ While all countries need to respond to COVID-19 , countries with existing humanitarian crisis are particularly vulnerable and will require all humanitarian partners to look at their existing operations to see how they can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus ] , ” according to a confidential draft Global Humanitarian Response Plan reviewed by Foreign Policy .
But the request—which would be in addition to ongoing humanitarian operations—comes at a time when the world ’ s leading economies are reeling from the economic shock induced by one of the most virulent pandemics since the 1918 Spanish flu .
U.N. and private relief officials expect it will be a major struggle to convince wealthy governments to open their pocketbooks .
“ Some of the biggest donors are seeing global recession about to hit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ official .
“ How generous are they going to be when they have a crisis looming in their own backyards ?
” As the arc of the pathogen spreads from global capitals to war zones and refugee camps , U.N. relief officials and aid organizations are bracing for what they fear could be a cataclysmic second phase of the pandemic : spreading in the close-quarters encampments of the world ’ s more than 25 million refugees and another 40 million internally displaced people .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
More than 3 billion people lack access to hand-washing facilities , depriving them of one of the most effective first lines of defense against the spread of the coronavirus , according to UNICEF .
There is little hope of finding enough space to implement social distancing policies in overcrowded camps from Bangladesh ’ s Cox ’ s Bazar and Kenya ’ s Dadaab camp to an archipelago of refugee camps for Afghans , Syrians , Palestinians , and others throughout the Middle East .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations—one that is spreading human suffering , infecting the global economy , and upending people ’ s lives , ” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters on Thursday , noting that a global recession of unprecedented scale is “ a near certainty.
” “ We must recognize that the poorest countries and most vulnerable—especially women—will be the hardest-hit.
” “ If we let the virus spread like wildfires , especially in the most vulnerable regions of the world , it would kill millions.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ up an international aid response is being hampered by the quest to ensure the safety of international staff .
Those concerns have been amplified by the announcement last week that David Beasley , the executive director of the Rome-based World Food Program , had been infected with the coronavirus .
Some international relief agencies have recalled senior field officers , fearing they could be infected .
“ Many humanitarian operations are scaling back physical presence , recommending their international staff return home and closing offices , ” according to a March 19 report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Norwegian nonprofit that provides analysis of major humanitarian crises .
“ Ongoing restriction of travel , suspension and changes to scheduled flights is likely to continue to disrupt humanitarian operations.
” “ It is making us preoccupied with ourselves , ” Jeremy Konyndyk , a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development , said at a March 19 panel hosted by the New Humanitarian news agency .
“ In donor capitals , the preoccupation is much more with the threats to their homelands.
” Konyndyk , who worked on the response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the U.S. Agency for International Development , said that U.N. and relief agencies are having to balance ensuring the health of their own staff with delivering care to needy communities .
“ You would have a hard time designing a more dangerous setting for the spread of this disease than an informal IDP settlement , ” he said .
“ You have a crowded population , very poor sanitation … very poor disease surveillance , very poor health services .
This could be extraordinarily dangerous … and I don ’ t think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet.
” In conflict-riven countries from Afghanistan to South Sudan to Yemen , dismal health care infrastructures are already overburdened after years of fighting .
A coronavirus outbreak—and its economic effects—could stretch these countries past the breaking point .
“ South Sudan ’ s health care system has been completely destroyed over the last seven years by the civil war , ” said Sterling Carter , a former aid worker in South Sudan .
After five years of war , with millions of people on the brink of famine , Yemen ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak than those of most other countries .
The conflict has left most of the country ’ s population effectively immunocompromised , one aid worker said .
“ You have to basically picture the already overwhelmed public health system overwhelmed further … and then overlay a food security crisis on top of it , ” said Scott Paul of the aid organization Oxfam America .
“ It ’ s hard to put into words how bad that ’ ll be.
” “ I see the spread of COVID-19 in poor and fragile countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health care systems are often very weak , ” said Richard Blewitt , the U.N. representative for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies .
“ At this time we need global and local solidarity and compassion with all those affected by COVID-19 , wherever they live.
” The U.N. has provided guidance to U.N. field workers , refugee camp managers , and public health specialists on how to battle the spread of the virus .
The guidance—produced this month by a U.N. Interagency Standing Committee—calls for the development of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” for each camp that would assess the risk of coronavirus infection and train staff to detect , test , and monitor its spread , as well as track and trace those infected with the virus and people they have come into contact with .
“ Wherever possible , mitigation measures to reduce overcrowding should be put in place , ” according to the guidance .
Action should be taken to promote social distancing and crowd management , particularly at times when basic necessities such as food and water are being distributed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Each site should have access to a laboratory to facilitate testing .
But relief workers say that some of the recommendations , like social distancing , may not be feasible in some of the world ’ s largest camps .
“ For many population groups , living in overcrowded conditions , social distancing is a challenge or impossible , ” according to the Assessment Capacities Project report .
Many countries that host refugee camps , such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh , are likely to be overwhelmed by the health needs of their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ may struggle to screen , test , and contain the epidemic for the host population let alone the refugees , ” according to the report .
In Gaza , the U.N .
Relief and Works Agency ( UNRWA ) , which provides primary care for about 70 percent of the territory ’ s more than 1.8 million people , is bracing for the likely arrival of the coronavirus in one of the most densely populated place in the world .
The U.N. agency—which the Trump administration defunded last year and has sought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gaza , putting it on the front lines of the defense of the coronavirus .
On Sunday , the Palestinian health ministry announced its first official confirmations of coronavirus infections in the Gaza Strip , two Palestinians who recently returned from Pakistan .
The development confirmed fears by health experts and U.N. officials that the lethal pathogen has found its way into one of the most densely populated places in the world .
“ The health system is already poor and struggling to survive with the critical needs of chronic diseases , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Bassam Nasser , the manager of the Catholic Relief Services office in Gaza , told Foreign Policy .
“ Now we [ have ] to add to it the capacity to cope with coronavirus.
” “ As long as we have emergencies all the time , it is not allowing us to work for development in Gaza , ” he said .
“ It ’ s just emergency after emergency after emergency.
” The U.N. relief agency is running a public information program that encourages hand-washing and the need for social distancing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system to monitor patients with respiratory illness , directing those suspected of having the coronavirus to the local hospitals .
It will also try to help lessen the burden on hospitals by taking in patients with illnesses unrelated to the coronavirus .
Gaza ’ s hospitals , already under strain , have only a fraction of the number of intensive care unit beds it would need to handle an outbreak .
“ I ’ m told that there are 60 ICU beds in the hospitals , ” Matthias Schmale , the director of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Foreign Policy .
“ If there is a full-scale outbreak the hospital sector won ’ t cope.
” The crisis , he added , has inspired a bit of dark humor among Palestinians in Gaza , who note one point of irony : Israel ’ s crushing economic blockade on Gaza is helping keep Palestinians safe from the coronavirus , which has already killed over 15,000 people worldwide .
But that ’ s only for now , and the humor , he noted , masks a deep anxiety .
“ We are preparing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best , ” he said .
In fact , the West Bank city of Bethlehem had an outbreak of dozens of cases of the coronavirus earlier this month , after members of a group of Greek religious tourists were confirmed to have contracted it when they returned home .
The unprecedented nature of the pandemic has fueled calls for radical thinking about the international response to the coronavirus crisis .
The leaders of major relief organizations are pressing donors to grant them greater flexibility to redirect funding from existing programs that are likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use that money for programs—including clean water and sanitation projects—that could help stem the crisis .
Jan Egeland , a former U.N. relief chief who heads the Norwegian Refugee Council , has appealed to some 40 donors to allow his agency to redirect money earmarked for shelter programs ground to a halt by the pandemic , and to use it to expand sanitation and hygiene programs .
The international community needs to fundamentally rethink its funding priorities for the coronavirus and redirect foreign assistance to fighting the spread of the bug , Egeland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is now in the well-organized and affluent north , with health systems , good sanitation , and big infrastructure , imagine how it will be when it will hit crowded camps with refugees and displaced people , ” said Egeland , who spoke by telephone from quarantine in Norway .
Egeland also complained that sweeping U.S. and U.N. economic sanctions imposed on governments in Iran , North Korea , and Venezuela are hampering relief efforts .
“ Now is the time to lift sanctions .
I don ’ t need a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work in the worst places on the planet , where the COVID virus will hit much harder than in New York , Oslo , and in Wuhan , ” he said .
The call for ending sanctions comes as Iran has pressed governments to violate the sanctions .
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted on Monday to thank those calling for sanctions relief and urge states and businesses to defy “ U.S .
mass punishment.
” “ U.S .
is NOT listening , impeding global fight against # COVID19 , ” he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pompeo defended the measures , saying Tehran squanders money that could be used to fight the pandemic to fund terrorist operations in the region .
He also said that “ Iranian documents show their health companies have been able to import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January.
” “ U.S .
sanctions do not target imports of food , medicine , and medical equipment , or other humanitarian goods , ” Pompeo added .
Egeland acknowledged that most U.N. sanctions regimes , including those for Iran and North Korea , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goods .
But the sanctions have scared financial institutions from providing vital financial services to relief agencies .
“ Not a single bank had the guts to transfer money , because they were all afraid to be sued by the U.S. government , ” he said .
It remained unclear whether the U.N. appeal will be on top of previous appeals by U.N. agencies for funding to combat the virus .
The World Health Organization announced earlier this year that more than $ 675 million will be required through April—including $ 61 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign against the virus .
Though WHO ’ s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said recently that more money would be needed .
On Feb. 17 , UNICEF issued an urgent request for $ 42.3 million to support the coronavirus response .
It will be used to reduce transmission of the virus by promoting distance learning for kids who can ’ t attend school and public information aimed at shooting down misinformation .
The U.N. secretary-general—along with the U.N. ’ s emergency relief coordinator , Mark Lowcock ; Tedros ; and the executive director @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new appeal at a joint press teleconference on Wednesday .
The U.N. will ask that donors not reduce funding from other vital humanitarian aid programs to fund the coronavirus response .
The new appeal “ aims at addressing the additional needs from the COVID-19 pandemic while sustaining the ongoing humanitarian operations and life-saving programmes responding to the needs pre-dating the new emergency , ” according to the draft plan .
“ This is essential to avoid further loss of lives and suffering , and the aggravation of affected people ’ s vulnerabilities.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic could claw back decades of efforts to raise international health standards and to scale back the most extreme levels of poverty , and undercut U.N. sustainable development goals , which are designed to improve the standard of living around the world by the year 2030 .
Guterres pressed governments to mount a coordinated global health strategy , ramping up health spending and pitching in to help poor countries .
He contended that “ global solidarity is not only a moral imperative , it is in everyone ’ s interests.
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as attacking the real economy at its core—trade , supply chains , businesses , jobs , ” Guterres said .
“ Workers around the world could lose as much as $ 3.4 trillion.
” Countries must resist the temptation to erect protectionist trade walls and should take steps including waiving interest payments to poor countries , offering debt relief , and sharply cutting fees for migrants to send remittance payments to loved ones in their homelands , he said .
“ We need to focus on people—the most vulnerable , low-wage workers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ That means wage support , insurance , social protection , preventing bankruptcies and job loss .
That also means designing fiscal and monetary responses to ensure that the burden does not fall on those who can least afford it .
The recovery must not come on the backs of the poorest—and we can not create a legion of new poor .
We need to get resources directly into the hands of people .
”

The United Nations is preparing to issue a major funding appeal for more than $1.5 billion on Wednesday to prepare for outbreaks of the new coronavirus in areas suffering some of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, including Gaza, Myanmar, Syria, South Sudan, and Yemen, according to diplomatic and relief officials familiar with the plan.
The United Nations is preparing to issue a major funding appeal for more than $1.5 billion on Wednesday to prepare for outbreaks of the new coronavirus in areas suffering some of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, including Gaza, Myanmar, Syria, South Sudan, and Yemen, according to diplomatic and relief officials familiar with the plan.
“While all countries need to respond to COVID-19, countries with existing humanitarian crisis are particularly vulnerable and will require all humanitarian partners to look at their existing operations to see how they can be reprioritized and adapted [to tackle the virus],” according to a confidential draft Global Humanitarian Response Plan reviewed by Foreign Policy.
But the request—which would be in addition to ongoing humanitarian operations—comes at a time when the world’s leading economies are reeling from the economic shock induced by one of the most virulent pandemics since the 1918 Spanish flu. U.N. and private relief officials expect it will be a major struggle to convince wealthy governments to open their pocketbooks. “Some of the biggest donors are seeing global recession about to hit them,” said one senior relief official. “How generous are they going to be when they have a crisis looming in their own backyards?”
As the arc of the pathogen spreads from global capitals to war zones and refugee camps, U.N. relief officials and aid organizations are bracing for what they fear could be a cataclysmic second phase of the pandemic: spreading in the close-quarters encampments of the world’s more than 25 million refugees and another 40 million internally displaced people.
Rohingya women and children who fled Myanmar wait in line for food distribution in the Kutupalong camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, on Aug. 26, 2018.
More than 3 billion people lack access to hand-washing facilities, depriving them of one of the most effective first lines of defense against the spread of the coronavirus, according to UNICEF. There is little hope of finding enough space to implement social distancing policies in overcrowded camps from Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar and Kenya’s Dadaab camp to an archipelago of refugee camps for Afghans, Syrians, Palestinians, and others throughout the Middle East.
“We are facing a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations—one that is spreading human suffering, infecting the global economy, and upending people’s lives,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters on Thursday, noting that a global recession of unprecedented scale is “a near certainty.” “We must recognize that the poorest countries and most vulnerable—especially women—will be the hardest-hit.”
“If we let the virus spread like wildfires, especially in the most vulnerable regions of the world, it would kill millions.”
Moreover, the effort to ramp up an international aid response is being hampered by the quest to ensure the safety of international staff. Those concerns have been amplified by the announcement last week that David Beasley, the executive director of the Rome-based World Food Program, had been infected with the coronavirus. Some international relief agencies have recalled senior field officers, fearing they could be infected.
“Many humanitarian operations are scaling back physical presence, recommending their international staff return home and closing offices,” according to a March 19 report by the Assessment Capacities Project, a Norwegian nonprofit that provides analysis of major humanitarian crises. “Ongoing restriction of travel, suspension and changes to scheduled flights is likely to continue to disrupt humanitarian operations.”
“It is making us preoccupied with ourselves,” Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, said at a March 19 panel hosted by the New Humanitarian news agency. “In donor capitals, the preoccupation is much more with the threats to their homelands.” Konyndyk, who worked on the response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa for the U.S. Agency for International Development, said that U.N. and relief agencies are having to balance ensuring the health of their own staff with delivering care to needy communities.
“You would have a hard time designing a more dangerous setting for the spread of this disease than an informal IDP settlement,” he said. “You have a crowded population, very poor sanitation … very poor disease surveillance, very poor health services. This could be extraordinarily dangerous … and I don’t think that’s getting enough global attention yet.”
A woman and child sit together at a makeshift camp for displaced Yemenis in the northern Hajjah province Dec. 16. Coronavirus could have devastating consequences for Yemen, as its health care infrastructures are already overburdened after years of conflict.
In conflict-riven countries from Afghanistan to South Sudan to Yemen, dismal health care infrastructures are already overburdened after years of fighting. A coronavirus outbreak—and its economic effects—could stretch these countries past the breaking point.
“South Sudan’s health care system has been completely destroyed over the last seven years by the civil war,” said Sterling Carter, a former aid worker in South Sudan.
After five years of war, with millions of people on the brink of famine, Yemen’s population is more vulnerable to a coronavirus outbreak than those of most other countries. The conflict has left most of the country’s population effectively immunocompromised, one aid worker said.
“You have to basically picture the already overwhelmed public health system overwhelmed further … and then overlay a food security crisis on top of it,” said Scott Paul of the aid organization Oxfam America. “It’s hard to put into words how bad that’ll be.”
Internally displaced persons prepare food at the Korijo camp in South Sudan on Sept. 23, 2018. The country’s civil war has caused its health care system to crumble over the past seven years, making it particularly susceptible to the spread of coronavirus.
“I see the spread of COVID-19 in poor and fragile countries as a huge risk, as their health care systems are often very weak,” said Richard Blewitt, the U.N. representative for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “At this time we need global and local solidarity and compassion with all those affected by COVID-19, wherever they live.”
The U.N. has provided guidance to U.N. field workers, refugee camp managers, and public health specialists on how to battle the spread of the virus. The guidance—produced this month by a U.N. Interagency Standing Committee—calls for the development of an “outbreak readiness and response plan” for each camp that would assess the risk of coronavirus infection and train staff to detect, test, and monitor its spread, as well as track and trace those infected with the virus and people they have come into contact with. “Wherever possible, mitigation measures to reduce overcrowding should be put in place,” according to the guidance. Action should be taken to promote social distancing and crowd management, particularly at times when basic necessities such as food and water are being distributed, to prevent large gatherings of people. Each site should have access to a laboratory to facilitate testing.
But relief workers say that some of the recommendations, like social distancing, may not be feasible in some of the world’s largest camps.
“For many population groups, living in overcrowded conditions, social distancing is a challenge or impossible,” according to the Assessment Capacities Project report. Many countries that host refugee camps, such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh, are likely to be overwhelmed by the health needs of their own citizens. Nations with weak health systems “may struggle to screen, test, and contain the epidemic for the host population let alone the refugees,” according to the report.
In Gaza, the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which provides primary care for about 70 percent of the territory’s more than 1.8 million people, is bracing for the likely arrival of the coronavirus in one of the most densely populated place in the world.
The U.N. agency—which the Trump administration defunded last year and has sought to dismantle—has some 22 medical clinics in Gaza, putting it on the front lines of the defense of the coronavirus.
On Sunday, the Palestinian health ministry announced its first official confirmations of coronavirus infections in the Gaza Strip, two Palestinians who recently returned from Pakistan. The development confirmed fears by health experts and U.N. officials that the lethal pathogen has found its way into one of the most densely populated places in the world.
“The health system is already poor and struggling to survive with the critical needs of chronic diseases, and emergencies that erupted from military escalations,” Bassam Nasser, the manager of the Catholic Relief Services office in Gaza, told Foreign Policy. “Now we [have] to add to it the capacity to cope with coronavirus.”
A girl wearing a protective mask sweeps outside her home in Gaza City on March 22.
“As long as we have emergencies all the time, it is not allowing us to work for development in Gaza,” he said. “It’s just emergency after emergency after emergency.”
The U.N. relief agency is running a public information program that encourages hand-washing and the need for social distancing. UNRWA has set up a triage system to monitor patients with respiratory illness, directing those suspected of having the coronavirus to the local hospitals. It will also try to help lessen the burden on hospitals by taking in patients with illnesses unrelated to the coronavirus. Gaza’s hospitals, already under strain, have only a fraction of the number of intensive care unit beds it would need to handle an outbreak.
“I’m told that there are 60 ICU beds in the hospitals,” Matthias Schmale, the director of Gaza’s UNRWA operations, told Foreign Policy. “If there is a full-scale outbreak the hospital sector won’t cope.”
The crisis, he added, has inspired a bit of dark humor among Palestinians in Gaza, who note one point of irony: Israel’s crushing economic blockade on Gaza is helping keep Palestinians safe from the coronavirus, which has already killed over 15,000 people worldwide. But that’s only for now, and the humor, he noted, masks a deep anxiety. “We are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best,” he said.
In fact, the West Bank city of Bethlehem had an outbreak of dozens of cases of the coronavirus earlier this month, after members of a group of Greek religious tourists were confirmed to have contracted it when they returned home.
The unprecedented nature of the pandemic has fueled calls for radical thinking about the international response to the coronavirus crisis.
The leaders of major relief organizations are pressing donors to grant them greater flexibility to redirect funding from existing programs that are likely to be paralyzed by the pandemic and use that money for programs—including clean water and sanitation projects—that could help stem the crisis.
Jan Egeland, a former U.N. relief chief who heads the Norwegian Refugee Council, has appealed to some 40 donors to allow his agency to redirect money earmarked for shelter programs ground to a halt by the pandemic, and to use it to expand sanitation and hygiene programs.
The international community needs to fundamentally rethink its funding priorities for the coronavirus and redirect foreign assistance to fighting the spread of the bug, Egeland said.
“As bad as it is now in the well-organized and affluent north, with health systems, good sanitation, and big infrastructure, imagine how it will be when it will hit crowded camps with refugees and displaced people,” said Egeland, who spoke by telephone from quarantine in Norway.
The Bardarash camp, pictured Oct. 24 in Dohuk, Iraq, swells with Syrian Kurdish refugees.
Egeland also complained that sweeping U.S. and U.N. economic sanctions imposed on governments in Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela are hampering relief efforts.
“Now is the time to lift sanctions. I don’t need a lot of sanctions legislation making it more difficult to work in the worst places on the planet, where the COVID virus will hit much harder than in New York, Oslo, and in Wuhan,” he said.
The call for ending sanctions comes as Iran has pressed governments to violate the sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted on Monday to thank those calling for sanctions relief and urge states and businesses to defy “U.S. mass punishment.”
“U.S. is NOT listening, impeding global fight against #COVID19,” he wrote.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defended the measures, saying Tehran squanders money that could be used to fight the pandemic to fund terrorist operations in the region. He also said that “Iranian documents show their health companies have been able to import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January.”
“U.S. sanctions do not target imports of food, medicine, and medical equipment, or other humanitarian goods,” Pompeo added.
Egeland acknowledged that most U.N. sanctions regimes, including those for Iran and North Korea, include exemptions for the import of humanitarian goods. But the sanctions have scared financial institutions from providing vital financial services to relief agencies. “Not a single bank had the guts to transfer money, because they were all afraid to be sued by the U.S. government,” he said.
It remained unclear whether the U.N. appeal will be on top of previous appeals by U.N. agencies for funding to combat the virus. The World Health Organization announced earlier this year that more than $675 million will be required through April—including $61 million for its own activities—to mount an international campaign against the virus. Though WHO’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said recently that more money would be needed. On Feb. 17, UNICEF issued an urgent request for $42.3 million to support the coronavirus response. It will be used to reduce transmission of the virus by promoting distance learning for kids who can’t attend school and public information aimed at shooting down misinformation.
The U.N. secretary-general—along with the U.N.’s emergency relief coordinator, Mark Lowcock; Tedros; and the executive director of UNICEF, Henrietta Fore—will launch the new appeal at a joint press teleconference on Wednesday.
The U.N. will ask that donors not reduce funding from other vital humanitarian aid programs to fund the coronavirus response. The new appeal “aims at addressing the additional needs from the COVID-19 pandemic while sustaining the ongoing humanitarian operations and life-saving programmes responding to the needs pre-dating the new emergency,” according to the draft plan. “This is essential to avoid further loss of lives and suffering, and the aggravation of affected people’s vulnerabilities.”
Guterres, meanwhile, expressed concern that the pandemic could claw back decades of efforts to raise international health standards and to scale back the most extreme levels of poverty, and undercut U.N. sustainable development goals, which are designed to improve the standard of living around the world by the year 2030.
A 7-year-old girl suffering from malnutrition lies on a bed at a makeshift camp for displaced Yemenis in the northwestern Hajjah province Sept. 28.
Guterres pressed governments to mount a coordinated global health strategy, ramping up health spending and pitching in to help poor countries. He contended that “global solidarity is not only a moral imperative, it is in everyone’s interests.”
“COVID-19 is killing people, as well as attacking the real economy at its core—trade, supply chains, businesses, jobs,” Guterres said. “Workers around the world could lose as much as $3.4 trillion.”
Countries must resist the temptation to erect protectionist trade walls and should take steps including waiving interest payments to poor countries, offering debt relief, and sharply cutting fees for migrants to send remittance payments to loved ones in their homelands, he said.
“We need to focus on people—the most vulnerable, low-wage workers, small and medium enterprises,” Guterres said. “That means wage support, insurance, social protection, preventing bankruptcies and job loss. That also means designing fiscal and monetary responses to ensure that the burden does not fall on those who can least afford it. The recovery must not come on the backs of the poorest—and we cannot create a legion of new poor. We need to get resources directly into the hands of people.”


foreignpolicy--2020-03-24--Will Trump End the Lockdown?

Will Trump End the Lockdown?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The White House weighs easing social distancing restrictions , the U.K. government announces a lockdown , and the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games are likely to be postponed .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
At a White House briefing yesterday , U.S. President Donald Trump said that normal economic activity would resume in weeks , not months .
“ Our country was not built to be shut down , ” Trump said , “ This is not a country that was built for this .
It was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comments highlighted the growing friction between public health experts keen to halt the spread of the coronavirus and White House advisors who see the economy as the priority .
“ The president is right .
The cure can ’ t be worse than the disease , ” Larry Kudlow , the director of the National Economic Council said on Fox News on Monday , “ And we ’ re going to have to make some difficult trade-offs.
” Asked at the briefing whether Anthony Fauci , the head of the National Institute of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the primacy of restarting the economy , Trump replied , “ He doesn ’ t not agree.
” Who else wants to ease restrictions ?
Such sentiments are not limited to the White House .
There is a growing chorus among conservatives and in mainstream publications calling for a rethink : on Friday the Wall Street Journal ran an editorial titled “ Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown ” and over the weekend two pieces in the New York Times , one by columnist Thomas Friedman and one by David Katz , the director of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center , raised similar questions .
The United States is only a little over one week into its 15-day social distancing period recommended by public health experts .
Since the recommendations were announced on March 16 , cases of COVID-19 have jumped from around 6,400 cases to 42,817 cases according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University .
On Monday , for the first time , more than 100 coronavirus-related deaths were reported in the United States .
Would ending lockdowns be safe ?
The case of Hong Kong provides an example of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On March 2 , Hong Kong ’ s civil servants returned to their workplaces after weeks working from home only for the virus to come roaring back .
Strict quarantine measures soon returned as the number of cases since the initial rollback doubled .
Gregg Gonsalves , an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Medicine , argues that those advocating the end of strict social distancing have “ very little public health experience and are not thinking in broader economic terms .
The costs of an unfettered epidemic would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he told FP .
“ The idea that we can isolate the sick or the old and high-risk away from the general population is not credible : we don ’ t have a social safety net to take care of all those people , ” he added .
Gonsalves also took aim at the two columns in the New York Times mentioned above.
“ The authors did one of the worst things you can do in an epidemic : They told people what they wanted to hear…This knee-jerk short termism is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back and for a disaster down the road.
” Johnson orders lockdown .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ordered citizens to stay in their homes as Britain becomes the latest European country to enact a lockdown .
The move came a day after photos of crowded trains and packed seaside towns surfaced while the U.K. infection rate continued to climb , with nearly 1,000 new cases confirmed on Monday .
The exceptions to the lockdown include traveling to work or to care for someone , buying food and medicine , and one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s all—these are the only reasons you should leave your home , ” Johnson said , “ You should not be meeting friends .
If your friends ask you to meet , you should say no.
” So far , the lockdown seems to have had no impact whatsoever when it comes to reducing risk for Londoners .
On Tuesday morning , a hospital worker tweeted a picture of a packed London Underground train and called on Johnson and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to increase the number of trains or restrict ridership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ waiver .
In a joint statement , African finance ministers called for $ 100 billion in stimulus to allow the continent to weather the dual storms of coronavirus and falling oil prices .
The statement calls for a waiver on interest payments on public debt and sovereign bonds—a move that would free up $ 44 billion and “ provide immediate fiscal space and liquidity to the governments in their efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic , ” the ministers said .
Bolsonaro calls out coronavirus as media trick .
As Brazil ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by locking down cities and suspending commerce , Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has tried to play down the country ’ s epidemic .
“ The people will soon see that they were tricked by these governors and by the large part of the media when it comes to coronavirus , ” Bolsonaro said in a television interview , claiming public unrest is being drummed up the media in order to oust him .
Pompeo meets Afghan leaders in Kabul .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met separately with President Ashraf Ghani and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in an attempt to reduce frictions between the two men .
A senior State Department official said it was unclear whether a breakthrough would be made during Pompeo ’ s day-long visit .
While Ghani and Abdullah have feuded , the Afghan government has delayed choosing a negotiating team to face the Taliban in much-anticipated peace talks .
Rouhani urges lifting of sanctions .
In public remarks , Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has called for the United States to lift sanctions , and said Iran would continue to reject U.S. offers of humanitarian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so .
“ Your help offer is the biggest lie in the history , ” Rouhani said .
Iran has suffered from the coronavirus the most of any country in the Middle East , with over 23,000 recorded cases—although the actual number of cases is likely to be higher according to a WHO official .
Tokyo Olympics likely to be postponed .
According to a member of the International Olympic Committee , the 2020 Tokyo Olympics—set to begin in August—will be postponed .
“ The parameters going forward have not been determined , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start on July 24 , that much I know , ” IOC member Dick Pound told USA Today .
Australia and Canada have already announced that their athletes will not compete .
The 2020 games would be the first Olympics to be postponed , although World War I and World War II forced cancelations in 1916 , 1940 , and 1944 .
UN calls for global cease-fire .
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for a global cease-fire in order for countries to focus on the coronavirus pandemic .
“ End the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is ravaging our world , ” he said .
“ It starts by stopping the fighting everywhere .
Now .
That is what our human family needs , now more than ever.
” MH17 trial delayed .
The Netherlands ’ trial of the four men accused of shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014 has been suspended until June .
The moves comes after lawyers for one of the men accused—the only one of the four to send lawyers to the trial—said they needed more time to prepare a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and one Ukrainian , face preliminary charges of murder .
Russia might delay vote .
Russia may delay its constitutional referendum—which if approved would include allowing President Vladimir Putin to rule until 2036—as Russia comes to grips with its coronavirus outbreak .
The daily newspaper Vedomosti reported the vote would likely be delayed from its original April 22 date to sometime in June .
Speaking about a possible change , Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said , “ If the growth of the epidemiological situation gives cause to reschedule then it will be done.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ power .
The West African nation of Guinea went ahead with a controversial referendum that could give President Alpha Condé another 12 years in office past his current term limit .
Voting was marred by attacks on polling stations from opposition groups with at least two people killed in the ensuing unrest .
Sunday ’ s poll was originally scheduled for March 1 , but had been delayed after international observers noted irregularities on the electoral rolls .
As Aanu Adeoye argued in Foreign Policy earlier this month , Condé is following in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s move is straight out of the playbook of undemocratic leaders seeking to extend their tenures by democratic means , ” and the region ’ s rollback of hard-won democratic gains will continue unless powerful neighbors and organizations like ECOWAS and the African Union pressure leaders to leave office when their terms end .
The Czech Republic has been left red-faced after a shipment of 101,600 facemasks meant for Italy was left impounded by Czech authorities after the Red Cross of Qingtian in eastern China had sent the masks as a gift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Upon discovering the mix-up , the Czech government sent 110,000 replacement facemasks , with Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek helping load the shipment himself .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The White House weighs easing social distancing restrictions, the U.K. government announces a lockdown, and the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games are likely to be postponed.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The White House weighs easing social distancing restrictions, the U.K. government announces a lockdown, and the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games are likely to be postponed.
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Trump Weighs Rollback of Lockdown Measures as Economy Worsens
At a White House briefing yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that normal economic activity would resume in weeks, not months. “Our country was not built to be shut down,” Trump said, “This is not a country that was built for this. It was not built to be shut down.”
His comments highlighted the growing friction between public health experts keen to halt the spread of the coronavirus and White House advisors who see the economy as the priority. “The president is right. The cure can’t be worse than the disease,” Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council said on Fox News on Monday, “And we’re going to have to make some difficult trade-offs.”
Asked at the briefing whether Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agreed on the primacy of restarting the economy, Trump replied, “He doesn’t not agree.”
Who else wants to ease restrictions? Such sentiments are not limited to the White House. There is a growing chorus among conservatives and in mainstream publications calling for a rethink: on Friday the Wall Street Journal ran an editorial titled “Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown” and over the weekend two pieces in the New York Times, one by columnist Thomas Friedman and one by David Katz, the director of Yale University’s Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, raised similar questions.
The United States is only a little over one week into its 15-day social distancing period recommended by public health experts. Since the recommendations were announced on March 16, cases of COVID-19 have jumped from around 6,400 cases to 42,817 cases according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University. On Monday, for the first time, more than 100 coronavirus-related deaths were reported in the United States.
Would ending lockdowns be safe? The case of Hong Kong provides an example of when easing restrictions can have adverse effects. On March 2, Hong Kong’s civil servants returned to their workplaces after weeks working from home only for the virus to come roaring back. Strict quarantine measures soon returned as the number of cases since the initial rollback doubled.
Gregg Gonsalves, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Medicine, argues that those advocating the end of strict social distancing have “very little public health experience and are not thinking in broader economic terms. The costs of an unfettered epidemic would be massive for the United States,” he told FP. “The idea that we can isolate the sick or the old and high-risk away from the general population is not credible: we don’t have a social safety net to take care of all those people,” he added.
Gonsalves also took aim at the two columns in the New York Times mentioned above.“The authors did one of the worst things you can do in an epidemic: They told people what they wanted to hear…This knee-jerk short termism is the best thing to help the virus roar back and for a disaster down the road.”
What We’re Following Today
Johnson orders lockdown. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ordered citizens to stay in their homes as Britain becomes the latest European country to enact a lockdown. The move came a day after photos of crowded trains and packed seaside towns surfaced while the U.K. infection rate continued to climb, with nearly 1,000 new cases confirmed on Monday.
The exceptions to the lockdown include traveling to work or to care for someone, buying food and medicine, and one exercise outing per day. “That’s all—these are the only reasons you should leave your home,” Johnson said, “You should not be meeting friends. If your friends ask you to meet, you should say no.”
So far, the lockdown seems to have had no impact whatsoever when it comes to reducing risk for Londoners. On Tuesday morning, a hospital worker tweeted a picture of a packed London Underground train and called on Johnson and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to increase the number of trains or restrict ridership.
African finance ministers call for debt waiver. In a joint statement, African finance ministers called for $100 billion in stimulus to allow the continent to weather the dual storms of coronavirus and falling oil prices. The statement calls for a waiver on interest payments on public debt and sovereign bonds—a move that would free up $44 billion and “provide immediate fiscal space and liquidity to the governments in their efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic,” the ministers said.
Bolsonaro calls out coronavirus as media trick. As Brazil’s regional governments begin to take action by locking down cities and suspending commerce, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has tried to play down the country’s epidemic. “The people will soon see that they were tricked by these governors and by the large part of the media when it comes to coronavirus,” Bolsonaro said in a television interview, claiming public unrest is being drummed up the media in order to oust him.
Pompeo meets Afghan leaders in Kabul. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met separately with President Ashraf Ghani and his rival and self-declared president Abdullah Abdullah in an attempt to reduce frictions between the two men. A senior State Department official said it was unclear whether a breakthrough would be made during Pompeo’s day-long visit. While Ghani and Abdullah have feuded, the Afghan government has delayed choosing a negotiating team to face the Taliban in much-anticipated peace talks.
Rouhani urges lifting of sanctions. In public remarks, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has called for the United States to lift sanctions, and said Iran would continue to reject U.S. offers of humanitarian assistance until the United States had done so. “Your help offer is the biggest lie in the history,” Rouhani said. Iran has suffered from the coronavirus the most of any country in the Middle East, with over 23,000 recorded cases—although the actual number of cases is likely to be higher according to a WHO official.
Keep an Eye On
Tokyo Olympics likely to be postponed. According to a member of the International Olympic Committee, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics—set to begin in August—will be postponed. “The parameters going forward have not been determined, but the games are not going to start on July 24, that much I know,” IOC member Dick Pound told USA Today. Australia and Canada have already announced that their athletes will not compete. The 2020 games would be the first Olympics to be postponed, although World War I and World War II forced cancelations in 1916, 1940, and 1944.
UN calls for global cease-fire. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for a global cease-fire in order for countries to focus on the coronavirus pandemic. “End the sickness of war and fight the disease that is ravaging our world,” he said. “It starts by stopping the fighting everywhere. Now. That is what our human family needs, now more than ever.”
MH17 trial delayed. The Netherlands’ trial of the four men accused of shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014 has been suspended until June. The moves comes after lawyers for one of the men accused—the only one of the four to send lawyers to the trial—said they needed more time to prepare a defense. The defendants, three Russians and one Ukrainian, face preliminary charges of murder.
Russia might delay vote. Russia may delay its constitutional referendum—which if approved would include allowing President Vladimir Putin to rule until 2036—as Russia comes to grips with its coronavirus outbreak. The daily newspaper Vedomosti reported the vote would likely be delayed from its original April 22 date to sometime in June. Speaking about a possible change, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “If the growth of the epidemiological situation gives cause to reschedule then it will be done.”
Guinea leader seeks to stay in power. The West African nation of Guinea went ahead with a controversial referendum that could give President Alpha Condé another 12 years in office past his current term limit. Voting was marred by attacks on polling stations from opposition groups with at least two people killed in the ensuing unrest. Sunday’s poll was originally scheduled for March 1, but had been delayed after international observers noted irregularities on the electoral rolls.
As Aanu Adeoye argued in Foreign Policy earlier this month, Condé is following in Putin’s footsteps. “Condé’s move is straight out of the playbook of undemocratic leaders seeking to extend their tenures by democratic means,” and the region’s rollback of hard-won democratic gains will continue unless powerful neighbors and organizations like ECOWAS and the African Union pressure leaders to leave office when their terms end.
Odds and Ends
The Czech Republic has been left red-faced after a shipment of 101,600 facemasks meant for Italy was left impounded by Czech authorities after the Red Cross of Qingtian in eastern China had sent the masks as a gift to Italy’s Chinese community. Upon discovering the mix-up, the Czech government sent 110,000 replacement facemasks, with Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek helping load the shipment himself.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.