foreignpolicy--2020-08-19--Crisis Grips Mali as Soldiers Detain President

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : A mutiny in Mali pushes the country into a political crisis , the EU moves to respond to the situation in Belarus , and Ethiopia ’ s prime minister reshuffles his cabinet as political tensions worsen .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Mali is facing a major political crisis after a group of soldiers mutinied at a base near the capital of Bamako and detained President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita , Prime Minister Boubou Cissé , and other top government officials , following weeks of popular protests against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the streets to celebrate after news of Keita ’ s arrest was made public , but some outside observers fear that the mutiny is in fact a military coup against the civilian government .
Hours after he was detained , Keita announced his resignation and dissolved parliament .
Public discontent .
Tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Bamako in recent weeks to express their anger over the government ’ s handling of myriad crises afflicting the country .
They faulted Keita for the collapse of the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country ’ s northern and central regions , where a serious Islamist insurgency has destabilized much of the region .
Simmering public discontent boiled over in March after the Malian government pushed ahead with parliamentary elections despite the dangers posed by the coronavirus pandemic .
Keita ’ s party ultimately won an additional 10 seats in a vote marred by claims of fraud and irregularities .
The campaign also saw the arrest and disappearance of Soumaila Cissé , the main opposition leader .
A coup in the making ?
The M5-RFP coalition , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ religious and political leaders that has helped organize and encourage the anti-government protests , offered its support to the mutinying soldiers .
A spokesman for the coalition told Reuters that the mutiny was “ not a military coup but a popular insurrection , ” but there is still concern that a full-fledged coup is imminent .
A mutiny occurred at the same base in 2012 , turning into a military coup that led to the ouster of then-President Amadou Toumani .
It is unclear who will step in to govern the country in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tuesday ’ s events were condemned internationally .
Moussa Faki Mahamat , the African Union commission chairman , said in a statement that he condemned “ any attempt at anti-constitutional change ” and called on the mutineers “ to stop all recourse to violence.
” France and the United States , both of which have expended huge resources to help stem Islamist militant activity in the region , also denounced the mutiny .
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said France “ condemns in the strongest terms this grave event , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , J. Peter Pham , tweeted that “ the U.S. is opposed to all extra-constitutional changes of government.
” Sudan normalizes ties with Israel .
On Tuesday , Sudan and Israel announced that they were close to concluding a deal that would normalize diplomatic relations between them , days after Israel reached a similar accord with the United Arab Emirates .
A Sudanese foreign ministry spokesperson said the government is “ looking forward to concluding a peace agreement with Israel , ” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed his government was prepared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed ” to complete the deal .
But Sudanese Foreign Minister Omer Ismail distanced his office from the statement , saying it was not authorized and that relations with Israel had not been discussed .
Still , it had been widely anticipated that Sudan would be one of the first in a string of Middle Eastern and North African countries to follow the UAE ’ s lead and normalize relations with Israel .
Hezbollah militant found guilty of Hariri assassination .
The U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon found one member of the Iran-backed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri .
Three other members of the group were charged as accomplices , but they were acquitted .
Although the tribunal exonerated the leadership of Hezbollah and Syria for lack of evidence , it acknowledged that they “ may have had motives to eliminate Mr. Hariri and some of his political allies.
” It was widely suspected at the time of the assassination that Syria and Hezbollah were behind the attack in an effort to preserve their influence in the country .
But as Rebecca Collard wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s inability to identify those who ordered the killing makes Tuesday ’ s ruling largely a disappointment .
The Lebanese government is unlikely to hand over the convicted man , and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly refused to hand over any of the group ’ s members .
The tribunal will sentence the convicted man at a later date .
EU powers ready to act on Belarus .
EU officials will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss how best to deal with the worsening crisis in Belarus .
According to Euractiv @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purpose of the meeting is to explore new ways to support those protesting against President Aleksandr Lukashenko and “ to send an important message of solidarity to the people of Belarus.
” The European Union already announced on Friday that it plans to sanction a list of key Belarusian individuals .
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a phone conversation that external actors meddling in Belarus ’ s internal affairs could escalate the situation .
As Leonid Gozman wrote for Foreign Policy , Lukashenko ’ s long-term survival now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members arrested across Ireland .
British and Irish authorities conducted a joint raid on suspected members of the paramilitary New Irish Republican Army across Ireland on Tuesday , arresting 10 individuals under antiterrorism legislation .
Officials said Tuesday ’ s sweep was part of an ongoing investigation into the group ’ s activities , occurring just days after it held an armed show of strength in the city of Derry .
Members of the New IRA were most recently implicated in the killing of journalist Lyra McKee in April 2019 .
The United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ European Union sparked concerns that the construction of physical infrastructure on the Irish border could antagonize the New IRA and revive militant activity in the country .
But as Foreign Policy reported in May 2019 , paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland had been on the rise for several years before Brexit .
Cabinet reshuffle in Ethiopia .
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ousted 10 high-ranking government officials on Tuesday as part of a major cabinet reshuffle that comes as the country continues to grapple with the looming threat of social unrest .
Notably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Megersa as defense minister .
Abiy has received international praise for his efforts at introducing democratic reforms to Ethiopia and attempting to overcome the country ’ s deep ethnic divisions .
Lemma fell out with Abiy in November when he publicly criticized the prime minister ’ s management of the transition , including his attempt to merge individual ethnically-based parties into a single political entity .
Lemma was replaced by Kenea Yadeta , a former security chief of the Oromia region , where ethnic tensions have been simmering in recent years .
Decadent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Un sees threats to his authority all around him .
Known for his penchant to ruthlessly crack down on those he views as rivals , he even stands accused of ordering the assassinations of close relatives .
Now , Kim has gone one step further .
According to local sources , last month , Kim ordered pet dogs in the capital of Pyongyang to be rounded up and confiscated , claiming they represent “ Western decadence ” and are little more than a “ ‘ tainted ’ trend by bourgeois ideology.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often keep pets as a show of status , and the regime ’ s decision to confiscate pets from ordinary people has stoked some resentment .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: A mutiny in Mali pushes the country into a political crisis, the European Union moves to respond to the situation in Belarus , and Ethiopia’s prime minister reshuffles his cabinet as political tensions worsen.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: A mutiny in Mali pushes the country into a political crisis, the European Union moves to respond to the situation in Belarus, and Ethiopia’s prime minister reshuffles his cabinet as political tensions worsen.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Apparent Coup Throws Mali Into Political Crisis
Mali is facing a major political crisis after a group of soldiers mutinied at a base near the capital of Bamako and detained President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, Prime Minister Boubou Cissé, and other top government officials, following weeks of popular protests against the government.
Hundreds of protesters took to the streets to celebrate after news of Keita’s arrest was made public, but some outside observers fear that the mutiny is in fact a military coup against the civilian government. Hours after he was detained, Keita announced his resignation and dissolved parliament.
Public discontent. Tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Bamako in recent weeks to express their anger over the government’s handling of myriad crises afflicting the country. They faulted Keita for the collapse of the economy and the deteriorating security situation in the country’s northern and central regions, where a serious Islamist insurgency has destabilized much of the region.
Simmering public discontent boiled over in March after the Malian government pushed ahead with parliamentary elections despite the dangers posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Keita’s party ultimately won an additional 10 seats in a vote marred by claims of fraud and irregularities. The campaign also saw the arrest and disappearance of Soumaila Cissé, the main opposition leader.
A coup in the making? The M5-RFP coalition, a major pressure group composed of prominent religious and political leaders that has helped organize and encourage the anti-government protests, offered its support to the mutinying soldiers. A spokesman for the coalition told Reuters that the mutiny was “not a military coup but a popular insurrection,” but there is still concern that a full-fledged coup is imminent. A mutiny occurred at the same base in 2012, turning into a military coup that led to the ouster of then-President Amadou Toumani. It is unclear who will step in to govern the country in Keita’s absence.
International response. Tuesday’s events were condemned internationally. Moussa Faki Mahamat, the African Union commission chairman, said in a statement that he condemned “any attempt at anti-constitutional change” and called on the mutineers “to stop all recourse to violence.”
France and the United States, both of which have expended huge resources to help stem Islamist militant activity in the region, also denounced the mutiny. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said France “condemns in the strongest terms this grave event,” and the U.S. envoy to the Sahel, J. Peter Pham, tweeted that “the U.S. is opposed to all extra-constitutional changes of government.”
What We’re Following Today
Sudan normalizes ties with Israel. On Tuesday, Sudan and Israel announced that they were close to concluding a deal that would normalize diplomatic relations between them, days after Israel reached a similar accord with the United Arab Emirates. A Sudanese foreign ministry spokesperson said the government is “looking forward to concluding a peace agreement with Israel,” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed his government was prepared to “do all that’s needed” to complete the deal.
But Sudanese Foreign Minister Omer Ismail distanced his office from the statement, saying it was not authorized and that relations with Israel had not been discussed. Still, it had been widely anticipated that Sudan would be one of the first in a string of Middle Eastern and North African countries to follow the UAE’s lead and normalize relations with Israel.
Hezbollah militant found guilty of Hariri assassination. The U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon found one member of the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah guilty of the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Three other members of the group were charged as accomplices, but they were acquitted.
Although the tribunal exonerated the leadership of Hezbollah and Syria for lack of evidence, it acknowledged that they “may have had motives to eliminate Mr. Hariri and some of his political allies.” It was widely suspected at the time of the assassination that Syria and Hezbollah were behind the attack in an effort to preserve their influence in the country. But as Rebecca Collard wrote for Foreign Policy, the tribunal’s inability to identify those who ordered the killing makes Tuesday’s ruling largely a disappointment.
The Lebanese government is unlikely to hand over the convicted man, and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly refused to hand over any of the group’s members. The tribunal will sentence the convicted man at a later date.
EU powers ready to act on Belarus. EU officials will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss how best to deal with the worsening crisis in Belarus. According to Euractiv, one EU source said that the purpose of the meeting is to explore new ways to support those protesting against President Aleksandr Lukashenko and “to send an important message of solidarity to the people of Belarus.”
The European Union already announced on Friday that it plans to sanction a list of key Belarusian individuals. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a phone conversation that external actors meddling in Belarus’s internal affairs could escalate the situation. As Leonid Gozman wrote for Foreign Policy, Lukashenko’s long-term survival now depends on a Russian intervention.
Keep an Eye On
IRA members arrested across Ireland. British and Irish authorities conducted a joint raid on suspected members of the paramilitary New Irish Republican Army across Ireland on Tuesday, arresting 10 individuals under antiterrorism legislation. Officials said Tuesday’s sweep was part of an ongoing investigation into the group’s activities, occurring just days after it held an armed show of strength in the city of Derry. Members of the New IRA were most recently implicated in the killing of journalist Lyra McKee in April 2019.
The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union sparked concerns that the construction of physical infrastructure on the Irish border could antagonize the New IRA and revive militant activity in the country. But as Foreign Policy reported in May 2019, paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland had been on the rise for several years before Brexit.
Cabinet reshuffle in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ousted 10 high-ranking government officials on Tuesday as part of a major cabinet reshuffle that comes as the country continues to grapple with the looming threat of social unrest. Notably, Abiy replaced his former ally Lemma Megersa as defense minister.
Abiy has received international praise for his efforts at introducing democratic reforms to Ethiopia and attempting to overcome the country’s deep ethnic divisions. Lemma fell out with Abiy in November when he publicly criticized the prime minister’s management of the transition, including his attempt to merge individual ethnically-based parties into a single political entity. Lemma was replaced by Kenea Yadeta, a former security chief of the Oromia region, where ethnic tensions have been simmering in recent years.
Odds and Ends
Decadent dogs. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un sees threats to his authority all around him. Known for his penchant to ruthlessly crack down on those he views as rivals, he even stands accused of ordering the assassinations of close relatives. Now, Kim has gone one step further. According to local sources, last month, Kim ordered pet dogs in the capital of Pyongyang to be rounded up and confiscated, claiming they represent “Western decadence” and are little more than a “‘tainted’ trend by bourgeois ideology.”
The report said that high-ranking North Korean officials often keep pets as a show of status, and the regime’s decision to confiscate pets from ordinary people has stoked some resentment.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-19--The World Is Planning to Rescue the Lebanese, Not Lebanon

The World Is Planning to Rescue the Lebanese , Not Lebanon There is a saying in Lebanon that the country functions better without a government than with one .
That has never been truer than now .
Minutes after the explosion ripped through Beirut on Aug. 4 , Red Cross medics appeared on the street with first aid kits , and volunteers managed traffic .
Young men and women carrying water bottles went door to door asking if anyone needed help .
Lebanon ’ s conflict-ridden past , riddled with wars and invasions , economic collapse , and rampant corruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into action when confronted with an emergency .
Within a week of the explosion that wreaked havoc in the capital , they cleaned the city ’ s roads , which had been made impassable with broken glass and debris .
Of course , in any other country , the army and disaster management officials would have also rushed to the spot of the explosion ; politicians would have lined up to offer condolences and support .
But here the state was conspicuously absent .
Instead , President Michel Aoun imposed a state of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to curb freedom of movement , press , and assembly to boot out angry protesters from the streets .
The Lebanese people have been both first responders and victims of their government ’ s response .
Mounds of shattered glass , wood , and entangled metal , mixed with household items such as half-torn books , contorted utensils , and photographs , now fill the sidewalks of the neighborhoods that were , before the blast , the heart of the city .
The volunteers who wielded brooms and shovels through the Christian-dominated neighborhoods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country ’ s religious sects .
Two groups of scouts , one from the Sunni-dominated northern city of Tripoli wearing maroon vests , and one from the Shiite south in green , were busy sweeping damaged houses .
( The state was nowhere in sight : Police officers merely guarded the entry to the road and roped off a building that was in danger of collapse . )
Such scenes could persuade the most ardent pessimists of a potential post-sectarian future .
When I asked the students about the country ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one 20-year-old lifted his broom and give each of the big sectarian leaders—the president , Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah , former Prime Minister Saad Hariri , and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri—an imaginary thrashing .
“ This is for Aoun , this for Nasrallah , ” he said , “ and this , a double strike for Hariri and Berri , bam.
” However , brooms and water bottles and sandwiches are not enough to rebuild damaged and destroyed buildings , nor to provide specialized medical care and resurrect businesses .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , tests , surgeries , and material for reconstruction .
Thanks to the country ’ s economic crisis , which predated the port explosion , businesses were already struggling to survive as the currency plummeted by 80 percent .
Most of those who now need aid do not believe they would get a penny if it were directed through the government .
The international community , for its part , has said it will channel its assistance through independent agencies .
But the Lebanese state , some activists say , is creating new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
An aid worker shared with Foreign Policy an internal communication from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to local partners .
It informed them “ NOT ” to submit documents to the Beirut municipal bureaucracy as demanded by government authorities .
Last week , French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a virtual donors ’ conference along with the U.N. , garnering $ 300 million as the first tranche of assistance for those who bore the brunt of the explosion , which left 170 people dead , thousands injured , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Macron insisted the aid must reach those in need—and not the pockets of politicians deemed corrupt by the Lebanese .
“ We must act quickly and efficiently so that this aid goes directly to where it is needed , ” he said .
The United States , the United Kingdom , and Germany , among others , also vowed to bypass the state .
The U.S. Agency for International Development provided emergency medical kits , each of which contains “ enough medicine and medical supplies to support 60,000 people , ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them straight to the hospitals—skirting around the Ministry of Health .
Germany has promised 20 million euros ( $ 24 million ) , nearly a quarter of it to the Red Cross and the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to disperse via local nongovernmental organizations .
It has deployed a team from the Technisches Hilfswerk to assess the damage to the buildings being used by the embassy and at least one renowned museum , the Sursock Museum .
The international aid organizations operating under the U.N. umbrella feel they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trusted local aid groups instead of going through the government .
Religious and secular charities have already been playing an active role in helping refugees and disadvantaged communities alike .
The Norwegian Refugee Council has been using stockpiled timber and plastic sheets to seal the broken windows and doors , offering privacy to those who do not have any extended social networks and nowhere else to go .
“ A roof above the head of the most vulnerable is our priority right now , ” said Elena Dikomitis , the council ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also intend to provide rent for three months to 2,500 families at first , and then later help homeowners with some cash so they can rebuild their homes depending on vulnerability assessment and available donor funding.
” Businesses are further down the list of priorities for most international aid agencies .
Many of the destroyed edifices are business enterprises—cafes , restaurants , pubs , all-purpose shops , language schools , and art galleries—that have been a crucial part of Lebanon ’ s tourism industry , which is among the country ’ s top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employment for young Lebanese and Syrians , along with migrant workers from Bangladesh and the Philippines .
Their destruction will cause a chain reaction , further tumbling the country into poverty .
Already crumbling under the weight of a collapsed currency , the businesses are crowdfunding and have published details of their losses on their websites .
Le Chef , a restaurant made world-famous by the celebrity television host Anthony Bourdain , has received assurance of funding from the Hollywood star Russell Crowe .
But many others are still waiting for a lifeline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government is exploiting Europe ’ s political vulnerabilities to procrastinate on reforms , betting that ultimately they will deliver funds to avoid another exodus of refugees westward .
But Bente Scheller , the head of the Middle East and North Africa division of the Heinrich Böll Foundation , says the West has leverage of its own .
Since many Westerners and Western properties also suffered losses , the international community can seize the assets abroad of Lebanese politicians .
“ If you freeze their personal assets , until its clear who bears the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t you then ask for a court order on how these should be used to rebuild the Lebanese state or to rebuild Beirut ?
” she told me from Berlin .
That may be wishful thinking .
The last time Beirut had to be rebuilt , after the end of the civil war , then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri hired his own company Solidere to erect skyscrapers and colonial-style squares full of apartments that were so expensive that most of downtown Beirut still lies deserted .
Lebanese worry that if homeowners and businesses do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will move in to grab the land around these neighborhoods , stealing not just a part of Beirut but a part of the Mediterranean itself .

There is a saying in Lebanon that the country functions better without a government than with one. That has never been truer than now.
There is a saying in Lebanon that the country functions better without a government than with one. That has never been truer than now.
Minutes after the explosion ripped through Beirut on Aug. 4, Red Cross medics appeared on the street with first aid kits, and volunteers managed traffic. Young men and women carrying water bottles went door to door asking if anyone needed help. Lebanon’s conflict-ridden past, riddled with wars and invasions, economic collapse, and rampant corruption, has steadily trained citizens to spring into action when confronted with an emergency. Within a week of the explosion that wreaked havoc in the capital, they cleaned the city’s roads, which had been made impassable with broken glass and debris.
Of course, in any other country, the army and disaster management officials would have also rushed to the spot of the explosion; politicians would have lined up to offer condolences and support. But here the state was conspicuously absent. Instead, President Michel Aoun imposed a state of emergency and granted the army expansive powers to curb freedom of movement, press, and assembly to boot out angry protesters from the streets. The Lebanese people have been both first responders and victims of their government’s response.
Mounds of shattered glass, wood, and entangled metal, mixed with household items such as half-torn books, contorted utensils, and photographs, now fill the sidewalks of the neighborhoods that were, before the blast, the heart of the city. The volunteers who wielded brooms and shovels through the Christian-dominated neighborhoods of Gemmayze and Mar Mikhael hailed from across the country’s religious sects. Two groups of scouts, one from the Sunni-dominated northern city of Tripoli wearing maroon vests, and one from the Shiite south in green, were busy sweeping damaged houses. (The state was nowhere in sight: Police officers merely guarded the entry to the road and roped off a building that was in danger of collapse.)
Such scenes could persuade the most ardent pessimists of a potential post-sectarian future. When I asked the students about the country’s sectarian divide and sect-based power-sharing system, one 20-year-old lifted his broom and give each of the big sectarian leaders—the president, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri—an imaginary thrashing. “This is for Aoun, this for Nasrallah,” he said, “and this, a double strike for Hariri and Berri, bam.”
However, brooms and water bottles and sandwiches are not enough to rebuild damaged and destroyed buildings, nor to provide specialized medical care and resurrect businesses. Many of those affected urgently need specialized doctors, tests, surgeries, and material for reconstruction. Thanks to the country’s economic crisis, which predated the port explosion, businesses were already struggling to survive as the currency plummeted by 80 percent.
Most of those who now need aid do not believe they would get a penny if it were directed through the government. The international community, for its part, has said it will channel its assistance through independent agencies. But the Lebanese state, some activists say, is creating new roadblocks to such attempts to circumvent it. An aid worker shared with Foreign Policy an internal communication from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to local partners. It informed them “NOT” to submit documents to the Beirut municipal bureaucracy as demanded by government authorities.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a virtual donors’ conference along with the U.N., garnering $300 million as the first tranche of assistance for those who bore the brunt of the explosion, which left 170 people dead, thousands injured, and a quarter of a million homeless. Macron insisted the aid must reach those in need—and not the pockets of politicians deemed corrupt by the Lebanese. “We must act quickly and efficiently so that this aid goes directly to where it is needed,” he said.
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, among others, also vowed to bypass the state. The U.S. Agency for International Development provided emergency medical kits, each of which contains “enough medicine and medical supplies to support 60,000 people,” the U.S. Embassy said, but it sent them straight to the hospitals—skirting around the Ministry of Health. Germany has promised 20 million euros ($24 million), nearly a quarter of it to the Red Cross and the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to disperse via local nongovernmental organizations. It has deployed a team from the Technisches Hilfswerk to assess the damage to the buildings being used by the embassy and at least one renowned museum, the Sursock Museum.
The international aid organizations operating under the U.N. umbrella feel they can best address the requirements in coordination with trusted local aid groups instead of going through the government. Religious and secular charities have already been playing an active role in helping refugees and disadvantaged communities alike. The Norwegian Refugee Council has been using stockpiled timber and plastic sheets to seal the broken windows and doors, offering privacy to those who do not have any extended social networks and nowhere else to go. “A roof above the head of the most vulnerable is our priority right now,” said Elena Dikomitis, the council’s advocacy adviser in Lebanon. “We also intend to provide rent for three months to 2,500 families at first, and then later help homeowners with some cash so they can rebuild their homes depending on vulnerability assessment and available donor funding.”
Businesses are further down the list of priorities for most international aid agencies. Many of the destroyed edifices are business enterprises—cafes, restaurants, pubs, all-purpose shops, language schools, and art galleries—that have been a crucial part of Lebanon’s tourism industry, which is among the country’s top revenue-generators, and a crucial source of employment for young Lebanese and Syrians, along with migrant workers from Bangladesh and the Philippines. Their destruction will cause a chain reaction, further tumbling the country into poverty.
Already crumbling under the weight of a collapsed currency, the businesses are crowdfunding and have published details of their losses on their websites. Le Chef, a restaurant made world-famous by the celebrity television host Anthony Bourdain, has received assurance of funding from the Hollywood star Russell Crowe. But many others are still waiting for a lifeline.
Experts worry that Lebanon’s government is exploiting Europe’s political vulnerabilities to procrastinate on reforms, betting that ultimately they will deliver funds to avoid another exodus of refugees westward. But Bente Scheller, the head of the Middle East and North Africa division of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, says the West has leverage of its own. Since many Westerners and Western properties also suffered losses, the international community can seize the assets abroad of Lebanese politicians. “If you freeze their personal assets, until its clear who bears the responsibility for the explosion, can’t you then ask for a court order on how these should be used to rebuild the Lebanese state or to rebuild Beirut?” she told me from Berlin.
That may be wishful thinking. The last time Beirut had to be rebuilt, after the end of the civil war, then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri hired his own company Solidere to erect skyscrapers and colonial-style squares full of apartments that were so expensive that most of downtown Beirut still lies deserted. Lebanese worry that if homeowners and businesses do not get help in time, developers will move in to grab the land around these neighborhoods, stealing not just a part of Beirut but a part of the Mediterranean itself.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-19--It’s Time for Western Universities to Cut Their Ties to China

It ’ s Time for Western Universities to Cut Their Ties to China It ’ s time for Western universities to close their Confucius Institutes and end their academic cooperation with China .
In the three decades following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre , one of the ways China sought to rebuild its image abroad was by systematically forging partnerships with Western universities .
At first , these partnerships mainly focused on research collaboration .
Later , they grew to include the Confucius Institutes for language education , generous funding for various joint projects , and the establishment of Western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At a time when China was undemocratic but liberalizing , such engagement seemed like a sensible strategy .
There have always been uneasy moments in Western universities ’ relationships with China , whether prompted by tensions over hosting the Dalai Lama or controversies over university self-censorship on China-related topics .
But these might have been dismissed as growing pains on China ’ s learning curve toward a more enlightened regime .
It seemed that everyone—even Beijing—shared the same ultimate goal of a more liberal , more democratic China .
Now that China has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ values transfer ” rationale for engagement with China has evaporated .
Now that China has tilted toward full-blown totalitarianism at home and military expansionism abroad , the “ values transfer ” rationale for engagement with China has evaporated .
It has become crystal clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping has no intention of leading China toward convergence with the West .
As a result , Western universities can no longer argue that they are pursuing a larger civilizing mission in their dealings with China .
All that is left is the pure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of course , is where it all began .
In the 1990s , Western universities started developing a cottage industry in offering bespoke short courses to teams of visiting Chinese officials .
By the turn of the millennium , their large-scale recruitment of Chinese students had begun .
Then , in 2004 , China issued a bold invitation to the world ’ s universities : If you host a center for the study of Chinese language and culture , the People ’ s Republic of China will pick up the tab .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Institutes .
Billed as China ’ s answer to the British Council and the Alliance Française , China ’ s 541 Confucius Institutes are housed at universities abroad , not run as independent outlets for public diplomacy like their European competitors .
Critics worry that Confucius Institutes promote Chinese government propaganda , but these concerns are probably overblown .
The reality is that Confucius Institutes are not so much designed to indoctrinate the students who take their courses as to influence the administrators of the universities that host them .
China provides the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teaching materials , and sometimes even the buildings for Confucius Institutes .
Perhaps just as important , China supplies the teachers .
It ’ s no easy task to find qualified Chinese teachers in Conway , Arkansas , or Las Cruces , New Mexico , to say nothing of Veliko Tarnovo , Bulgaria , or N ’ Djamena , Chad .
In an era of strained university budgets , it must be very attractive when a foreign government offers to fund and staff a revenue-generating language learning center .
Confucius Institutes at most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the public , while ordinary faculty teach for-credit classes to degree students .
Chinese campuses of Western universities such as New York University Shanghai feature compulsory classes in “ patriotic education.
” That at least some university administrators have been compromised seems likely .
In the United Kingdom , Parliament has held hearings on the potential of Confucius Institute funding to influence university policies .
The University of Queensland in Australia has experienced a governance crisis over its moves to expel a student activist who has been highly critical of the university @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , of course , in the United States , the umbrella organization coordinating Confucius Institutes has recently been designated as a foreign mission by the State Department .
But this debate misses the main point .
For three decades , universities have attempted to play a pivotal role in Western public diplomacy toward China .
They have collaborated with Chinese institutions , opened campuses in China , and educated hundreds of thousands of Chinese students .
Along the way , they generated millions of dollars in revenues , but always with the promise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the larger goal of a more liberal China .
Collaboration would help professionalize Chinese institutions ; overseas campuses would be island outposts of academic freedom ; Chinese students would internalize Western values and take them back to China .
Perhaps through no fault of the universities , those public diplomacy missions have failed .
Chinese universities have been forced to abandon “ freedom of thought ” pledges in favor of “ Xi Jinping Thought.
” Chinese campuses of Western universities such as New York University Shanghai have been forced to add compulsory classes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( though by no means all ) Chinese students abroad increasingly exhibit an extreme nationalism that severely undermines the notion that the mere experience of life in a democratic country will temper students ’ susceptibility to party-state indoctrination .
Rising totalitarianism in China has turned the tables on Western universities : Instead of spearheading the liberalization of China , they are uncomfortably vulnerable to Chinese pressure in the opposite direction .
Their partnerships with Chinese universities have turned into potential liabilities as professors come under fire for not properly declaring Chinese funding , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abuses in Xinjiang , and universities ’ technology breakthroughs are being used to improve China ’ s system of mass surveillance .
Embarrassing , immoral , and potentially criminal associations are inevitable when universities are so deeply engaged with such a dangerous regime .
Similarly , if Western universities are operating branch campuses in China and educating Chinese international students on their home campuses purely for profit , do they have a sufficient motive to operate in the public interest , as they are supposed to do ?
Critics legitimately ask whether universities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep the tuition dollars flowing .
If China were steadily liberalizing , these concerns would quietly dissipate over time .
But with China steadily becoming more militant and repressive , these concerns can only grow .
Western universities are now more likely to act as apologists for an illiberal China .
As difficult and dismaying it may be for everyone involved to admit it , it ’ s time to cut the cord .
As an evil regime gets even worse , at some point engagement becomes no longer acceptable .
We have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and censors all internal communications , prohibits access to external sources of news and information , arbitrarily detains not only its own citizens but increasingly foreigners as well , severely represses minority cultures in Tibet and Xinjiang , prohibits the free exercise of religion , and routinely threatens its neighbors with military force .
Each of these individually would be cause for concern .
Collectively , their weight is overwhelming .
And all of them are trending in the wrong direction .
Western universities are no longer participating in the reform of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are now more likely to act as apologists for an illiberal China .
To escape from that untenable position , they should scale back their engagement with China by reducing Chinese student numbers to levels that do not compromise their autonomy , discourage research collaboration with Chinese universities , and close their Confucius Institutes .
China is clearly moving in the wrong direction .
Western universities should be careful to ensure that they are not dragged along with it .
They should be absolutely determined not to follow voluntarily .

It's time for Western universities to close their Confucius Institutes and end their academic cooperation with China. In the three decades following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, one of the ways China sought to rebuild its image abroad was by systematically forging partnerships with Western universities. At first, these partnerships mainly focused on research collaboration. Later, they grew to include the Confucius Institutes for language education, generous funding for various joint projects, and the establishment of Western universities’ branch campuses in China.
It’s time for Western universities to close their Confucius Institutes and end their academic cooperation with China. In the three decades following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, one of the ways China sought to rebuild its image abroad was by systematically forging partnerships with Western universities. At first, these partnerships mainly focused on research collaboration. Later, they grew to include the Confucius Institutes for language education, generous funding for various joint projects, and the establishment of Western universities’ branch campuses in China.
At a time when China was undemocratic but liberalizing, such engagement seemed like a sensible strategy. There have always been uneasy moments in Western universities’ relationships with China, whether prompted by tensions over hosting the Dalai Lama or controversies over university self-censorship on China-related topics. But these might have been dismissed as growing pains on China’s learning curve toward a more enlightened regime. It seemed that everyone—even Beijing—shared the same ultimate goal of a more liberal, more democratic China.
Now that China has tilted toward full-blown totalitarianism, the “values transfer” rationale for engagement with China has evaporated.
Now that China has tilted toward full-blown totalitarianism at home and military expansionism abroad, the “values transfer” rationale for engagement with China has evaporated. It has become crystal clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping has no intention of leading China toward convergence with the West. As a result, Western universities can no longer argue that they are pursuing a larger civilizing mission in their dealings with China. All that is left is the pure, crass hunger for Chinese money.
Money, of course, is where it all began. In the 1990s, Western universities started developing a cottage industry in offering bespoke short courses to teams of visiting Chinese officials. By the turn of the millennium, their large-scale recruitment of Chinese students had begun. Then, in 2004, China issued a bold invitation to the world’s universities: If you host a center for the study of Chinese language and culture, the People’s Republic of China will pick up the tab. That was the birth of the Confucius Institutes.
Billed as China’s answer to the British Council and the Alliance Française, China’s 541 Confucius Institutes are housed at universities abroad, not run as independent outlets for public diplomacy like their European competitors. Critics worry that Confucius Institutes promote Chinese government propaganda, but these concerns are probably overblown. The reality is that Confucius Institutes are not so much designed to indoctrinate the students who take their courses as to influence the administrators of the universities that host them.
China provides the start-up funds, the salaries, the teaching materials, and sometimes even the buildings for Confucius Institutes. Perhaps just as important, China supplies the teachers. It’s no easy task to find qualified Chinese teachers in Conway, Arkansas, or Las Cruces, New Mexico, to say nothing of Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria, or N’Djamena, Chad. In an era of strained university budgets, it must be very attractive when a foreign government offers to fund and staff a revenue-generating language learning center. Confucius Institutes at most Western universities focus on offering noncredit classes to the public, while ordinary faculty teach for-credit classes to degree students.
Chinese campuses of Western universities such as New York University Shanghai feature compulsory classes in “patriotic education.”
That at least some university administrators have been compromised seems likely. In the United Kingdom, Parliament has held hearings on the potential of Confucius Institute funding to influence university policies. The University of Queensland in Australia has experienced a governance crisis over its moves to expel a student activist who has been highly critical of the university’s Confucius Institute ties. And, of course, in the United States, the umbrella organization coordinating Confucius Institutes has recently been designated as a foreign mission by the State Department.
But this debate misses the main point. For three decades, universities have attempted to play a pivotal role in Western public diplomacy toward China. They have collaborated with Chinese institutions, opened campuses in China, and educated hundreds of thousands of Chinese students. Along the way, they generated millions of dollars in revenues, but always with the promise that the money ultimately supported progress toward the larger goal of a more liberal China. Collaboration would help professionalize Chinese institutions; overseas campuses would be island outposts of academic freedom; Chinese students would internalize Western values and take them back to China.
Perhaps through no fault of the universities, those public diplomacy missions have failed. Chinese universities have been forced to abandon “freedom of thought” pledges in favor of “Xi Jinping Thought.” Chinese campuses of Western universities such as New York University Shanghai have been forced to add compulsory classes in “patriotic education.” And many (though by no means all) Chinese students abroad increasingly exhibit an extreme nationalism that severely undermines the notion that the mere experience of life in a democratic country will temper students’ susceptibility to party-state indoctrination.
Rising totalitarianism in China has turned the tables on Western universities: Instead of spearheading the liberalization of China, they are uncomfortably vulnerable to Chinese pressure in the opposite direction. Their partnerships with Chinese universities have turned into potential liabilities as professors come under fire for not properly declaring Chinese funding, research grants are linked to human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and universities’ technology breakthroughs are being used to improve China’s system of mass surveillance. Embarrassing, immoral, and potentially criminal associations are inevitable when universities are so deeply engaged with such a dangerous regime.
Similarly, if Western universities are operating branch campuses in China and educating Chinese international students on their home campuses purely for profit, do they have a sufficient motive to operate in the public interest, as they are supposed to do? Critics legitimately ask whether universities will compromise their values in order to keep the tuition dollars flowing. If China were steadily liberalizing, these concerns would quietly dissipate over time. But with China steadily becoming more militant and repressive, these concerns can only grow.
Western universities are now more likely to act as apologists for an illiberal China.
As difficult and dismaying it may be for everyone involved to admit it, it’s time to cut the cord. As an evil regime gets even worse, at some point engagement becomes no longer acceptable. We have in China today a government that monitors and censors all internal communications, prohibits access to external sources of news and information, arbitrarily detains not only its own citizens but increasingly foreigners as well, severely represses minority cultures in Tibet and Xinjiang, prohibits the free exercise of religion, and routinely threatens its neighbors with military force. Each of these individually would be cause for concern. Collectively, their weight is overwhelming. And all of them are trending in the wrong direction.
Western universities are no longer participating in the reform of a liberalizing China. On balance—despite individual exceptions—they are now more likely to act as apologists for an illiberal China. To escape from that untenable position, they should scale back their engagement with China by reducing Chinese student numbers to levels that do not compromise their autonomy, discourage research collaboration with Chinese universities, and close their Confucius Institutes. China is clearly moving in the wrong direction. Western universities should be careful to ensure that they are not dragged along with it. They should be absolutely determined not to follow voluntarily.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-19--Hezbollah Still Has a Knife at Lebanon’s Throat After Hariri Verdict

Hezbollah Still Has a Knife at Lebanon ’ s Throat After Hariri Verdict Lebanon ’ s postwar hopes of becoming a free and prosperous nation died smoldering in a mangled crater of seared flesh and jagged metal on the Beirut waterfront .
The devastating bomb blast that tore through the Beirut coast didn ’ t just rip the fragile fabric of Lebanese society apart—it permanently mutilated it beyond all recognition .
But this did not happen in 2020 ; it happened in 2005 .
That time , however , it was no act of criminal negligence or corruption but a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2005 , a suicide bomber detonated a Mitsubishi Canter pickup truck loaded with over 2,000 pounds of TNT next to the convoy of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri , murdering him and 21 other people .
On Tuesday , after more than 15 years of turmoil , bloodshed , and destitution , as well as the murder of one of the men pursuing the killers , the first-ever international court tribunal established to prosecute terrorist crimes returned a verdict that no one in Lebanon ever doubted : Hariri was assassinated by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come under absurd circumstances .
The tribunal , which spent more than $ 1 billion and took 11 years to return one guilty verdict ( out of four suspects on trial in absentia ) , never had the remit to investigate Hezbollah as an organization , and its final verdict was undermined before it had even been read out by the demonstrably ridiculous statement that the court had seen “ no evidence that the Hezbollah leadership had any involvement ” in the assassination , before returning a guilty verdict for a senior Hezbollah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found guilty of co-conspiring to murder Hariri with Mustafa Badreddine , Hezbollah ’ s second-in-command , whose case at the tribunal was dropped following his death in Syria in 2016 .
Hezbollah , a Shiite paramilitary organization funded by Iran , has always officially denied responsibility for the bombing , just as it has always denied responsibility for assassinating Samir Kassir , Wissam al-Hassan , George Hawi and Gebran Tueni among dozens of other political opponents , and for the deaths of hundreds of innocent bystanders from these bombings .
In Lebanon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Syria ’ s Assad regime get killed in car bombs , Hezbollah denies responsibility , and the nation is expected to move on as if nothing happened and mysterious car bombs are just one of those unexplained quirks of life rather than a clear message , etched in blood , for all to understand .
Yet there can be no misreading of this judgement , despite the surreal statement .
Hezbollah ’ s most senior operatives do not act independently from the organization ’ s leadership .
This tribunal and verdict , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they have been for many Lebanese , has at the very least hammered the nail into the coffin of Hezbollah ’ s charade of plausible deniability .
As of publication time , Hezbollah ’ s leader Hassan Nasrallah has not responded to the guilty verdict against Ayyash , a man he had previously called an “ honorable ” resistor alongside the other indicted Hezbollah members in a speech in 2011 .
After previously vowing to “ cut off ” the hand of anyone who tried to arrest Ayyash or his co-conspirators , whose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nasrallah will accept even a court decision that went out of its way to acknowledge there was no paper trail leading directly to his leadership .
A guilty verdict for Badreddine would have been harder to stomach for Hezbollah , but like Nasrallah ’ s critics whose cars mysteriously blew up , Badreddine was killed by a conveniently unexplained blast and could not be prosecuted by the tribunal because he was dead , another loose end tied up .
Hezbollah ’ s gaslighting of the Lebanese people is brutally obvious .
The day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporters had been posting photos of Badreddine online alongside the hashtag “ whomever we killed deserved it.
” Immediately after the court convicted him for murdering 22 people , a banner was raised by Hezbollah supporters in Ayyash ’ s hometown honoring him as a “ proud son of the resistance.
” Lebanon ’ s public have always known who is holding the knife to their necks .
The Taif Agreement , which ended Lebanon ’ s civil war , also became a permanent shackle around its neck , with sectarianism becoming the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Despite agreements for the full withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon , and the full disarmament of militias , the Taif Agreement was never fully implemented .
While the problems of today have not changed significantly from the problems of 2005 , developments such as the Cedar Revolution and the Syrian civil war have changed the equation .
Lebanon following the civil war effectively became a client state for Bashar al-Assad ’ s regime , which had more than 15,000 troops occupying territory across the country .
The Assad regime dominated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forcing pro-regime lawmakers onto election slates .
Lebanon was never going to be a shining beacon of liberal democracy in the Middle East under this postwar system .
But after years of bloodshed , the Lebanese people were at long last able to start living their lives again .
Hariri was also no hard-liner against the Syrian regime .
He had been complying with the regime ’ s demands for many years before the political realities in Lebanon started to change .
Before Hariri ’ s assassination , Assad was demanding a term-limit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Émile Lahoud , even though it violated Lebanon ’ s constitution .
This was a deeply unpopular move in Lebanon as the country grew weary of Syrian military occupation , and opposition to the regime ’ s dominance over political affairs was growing .
Political opposition to Hezbollah ’ s armed status was also increasing , and Hariri ’ s growing relationship with the so-called Bristol Group , a cross-confessional political grouping established following the aftermath of the Lahoud extension , that convened at the Bristol Hotel in Beirut to call for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Taif Agreement .
The reality of the relationship between Hariri and the Assad regime was laid bare by the transcripts of recordings of meetings between Hariri and Assad ’ s diplomatic henchman Walid Muallem passed to the Special Tribunal .
“ We want a pro-Syrian regime in Lebanon , ” Hariri said .
“ But , at the same time , Lebanon will not be ruled by Syria forever.
” The conversation was strained , and Hariri ’ s routine acquiescence to the regime became apparent , but Hariri was signing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nobody was allowed to say in Lebanon to Hezbollah or Assad : “ No.
” “ Brother , you are like a father to me .
Is there more ?
Can you be more than that ?
You may be my father , OK , but I can ’ t accept for you to choose the woman I will marry , what she will wear , name my children , which school they will attend , ” Hariri said to a Syrian diplomatic representative .
“ You know how there is interference in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A day after this conversation took place , Hariri would join with the Bristol Group opposition in calling for the immediate and total withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon .
Less than two weeks later , Hariri was dead .
When the Lebanese Internal Security Forces intelligence officer Capt .
Wissam Eid was handed responsibility for the organization ’ s investigation into the Hariri assassination , few expected it was a case he could solve .
Perhaps he wasn ’ t even supposed to .
But Eid was no run-of-the-mill police officer—he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Special Tribunal notably poured scorn on how the Lebanese authorities handled the crime scene and subsequent investigation , not one word was saved for the man whose investigation was the basis of the overwhelming weight of telecommunications evidence that initiated the tribunal .
Hezbollah had no idea just who they were up against .
Using nothing but an Excel spreadsheet and raw cell tower communications data , over the course of one year , Wissam Eid painstakingly found patterns in the data that he successfully identified as a comprehensive network of mobile devices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hariri investigation .
As Eid began getting closer to the truth , the death threats began .
He began to receive messages that the phones he was investigating belonged to Hezbollah , and that he should stop digging .
Far from being intimidated , Eid began sleeping in his office so he could finish his investigation and not endanger the life of his family .
Astonishingly , he cracked the case .
But this groundbreaking achievement of Alan Turing-like brilliance was not celebrated—it was ignored .
Eid had cracked the case in 2006 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission , a report he had risked his life to write , one that few people could have ever written .
It remained ignored for at least a year .
A year later , someone from the U.N. commission ’ s team eventually found Eid ’ s report and finally established contact .
The man who alone had uncovered Hezbollah ’ s complicity in the murder of Hariri was finally being heard .
A few weeks later , Wissam Eid was killed by a car bomb .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ never be the subject of an international tribunal , nobody in Lebanon is in any doubt as to who is responsible .
Without Eid ’ s telecommunications data investigation , there would be no conviction for Salim Ayyash , there would be no evidence of Badreddine ’ s involvement , and the Lebanese public could continue to bury their heads in the sand about who was responsible for the murder of 22 of their fellow citizens on Feb. 14 , 2005 .
But Eid ’ s sacrifice will see no justice , his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statues or street names , and his bravery won ’ t be taught in schools—at least not as long as Hezbollah continues to threaten every speaker of truth in Lebanon from the shadows .
Speaking to Foreign Policy , Eid ’ s parents Mahmoud and Samira Eid expressed their pride in their son ’ s achievements following the conclusion of the tribunal .
“ Wissam sacrificed his life for his work , ” they said , speaking jointly in response to questions e-mailed earlier .
“ Despite the big opportunities he had and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to leave his work and continued till the very end.
” Eid ’ s parents were also in no doubt that if he had continued to work on the case , it could have gone further .
“ Had he been alive , he would have been of great help to the investigations and he wouldn ’ t have been surprised with the verdict simply because what he discovered 15 years ago was beyond any doubt , ” they said .
“ The only evidence that the court took into consideration is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discover one year after the assassination relying on personal effort and using simple techniques.
” Like many Lebanese , Samira and Mahmoud expressed their frustration and disappointment that the verdict did not go further .
“ We accept its verdict .
It ’ s true that we wanted to know the assassin , but we were hoping to know who orchestrated this assassination , ” they said .
Some in Lebanon are now arguing whether the tribunal was worth it at all .
The defendants were tried in absentia , and , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apprehended he will have to be tried all over again .
There is no chance Hezbollah will admit complicity , and even if the court had convicted Nasrallah himself , it would have made no material difference to the lives of Lebanese people .
Lebanon remains a country held hostage by a murderous foreign-backed terrorist organization .
There is no prospect of economic or political reform that does not require dismantling Hezbollah , and there is no prospect of dismantling Hezbollah without a civil war , and Hezbollah ’ s leadership has started @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simple message : fall in line or you will be next .
The mass protest movement that has been raging since October 2019 under the slogan “ All of them means all of them , ” referring to the entirety of Lebanon ’ s corrupt political ruling class , has escalated following the ammonium nitrate blast that smashed Beirut ’ s port into pieces earlier this month .
Effigies of Lebanese politicians , including Hassan Nasrallah , are being publicly hanged in the streets of Beirut , a city close to an uprising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be sick of all of their sectarian overlords , Hezbollah holds dominion over all , with its terrifying domestic military capabilities dwarfing that of many regional states .
The mood in the international community toward Hezbollah has started shifting , with the United Kingdom and Germany recently moving toward Washington ’ s position by proscribing Hezbollah in full after many years of trying to draw a distinction between Hezbollah ’ s military and political wings .
( Even by Hezbollah ’ s own standards , no such distinction exists . )
France and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , remain unconvinced on the issue , but with an international tribunal conviction and the introduction of sanctions against the Assad regime and its allies under the Caesar Act , Hezbollah is beginning to find itself increasingly isolated .
But an isolated Hezbollah is simple a more paranoid and violent Hezbollah , and the international community can ’ t defeat the group by closing a few offshore European bank accounts .
Samira and Mahmoud Eid tell me that justice in Lebanon “ will only be served when the people behind the assassinations are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rafik Hariri killed Wissam Eid and the rest of the martyrs .
Justice will be served by punishing those who planned , not those who served as mere tools to commit the murders.
” But even after 11 years of work , that justice seems as far away as it was on Feb. 14 , 2005 .

Lebanon’s postwar hopes of becoming a free and prosperous nation died smoldering in a mangled crater of seared flesh and jagged metal on the Beirut waterfront. The devastating bomb blast that tore through the Beirut coast didn’t just rip the fragile fabric of Lebanese society apart—it permanently mutilated it beyond all recognition.
Lebanon’s postwar hopes of becoming a free and prosperous nation died smoldering in a mangled crater of seared flesh and jagged metal on the Beirut waterfront. The devastating bomb blast that tore through the Beirut coast didn’t just rip the fragile fabric of Lebanese society apart—it permanently mutilated it beyond all recognition.
But this did not happen in 2020; it happened in 2005. That time, however, it was no act of criminal negligence or corruption but a premeditated murder.
On Feb. 14, 2005, a suicide bomber detonated a Mitsubishi Canter pickup truck loaded with over 2,000 pounds of TNT next to the convoy of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, murdering him and 21 other people.
On Tuesday, after more than 15 years of turmoil, bloodshed, and destitution, as well as the murder of one of the men pursuing the killers, the first-ever international court tribunal established to prosecute terrorist crimes returned a verdict that no one in Lebanon ever doubted: Hariri was assassinated by senior Hezbollah operatives.
But justice has come under absurd circumstances. The tribunal, which spent more than $1 billion and took 11 years to return one guilty verdict (out of four suspects on trial in absentia), never had the remit to investigate Hezbollah as an organization, and its final verdict was undermined before it had even been read out by the demonstrably ridiculous statement that the court had seen “no evidence that the Hezbollah leadership had any involvement” in the assassination, before returning a guilty verdict for a senior Hezbollah operative, Salim Ayyash. Ayyash was found guilty of co-conspiring to murder Hariri with Mustafa Badreddine, Hezbollah’s second-in-command, whose case at the tribunal was dropped following his death in Syria in 2016.
Hezbollah, a Shiite paramilitary organization funded by Iran, has always officially denied responsibility for the bombing, just as it has always denied responsibility for assassinating Samir Kassir, Wissam al-Hassan, George Hawi , and Gebran Tueni , among dozens of other political opponents, and for the deaths of hundreds of innocent bystanders from these bombings.
In Lebanon, prominent critics of Hezbollah and their allies in Syria’s Assad regime get killed in car bombs, Hezbollah denies responsibility, and the nation is expected to move on as if nothing happened and mysterious car bombs are just one of those unexplained quirks of life rather than a clear message, etched in blood, for all to understand.
Yet there can be no misreading of this judgement, despite the surreal statement. Hezbollah’s most senior operatives do not act independently from the organization’s leadership. This tribunal and verdict, as flawed and toothless and disappointing as they have been for many Lebanese, has at the very least hammered the nail into the coffin of Hezbollah’s charade of plausible deniability.
As of publication time, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has not responded to the guilty verdict against Ayyash, a man he had previously called an “honorable” resistor alongside the other indicted Hezbollah members in a speech in 2011. After previously vowing to “cut off” the hand of anyone who tried to arrest Ayyash or his co-conspirators, whose whereabouts remain unknown, it is unlikely Nasrallah will accept even a court decision that went out of its way to acknowledge there was no paper trail leading directly to his leadership.
A guilty verdict for Badreddine would have been harder to stomach for Hezbollah, but like Nasrallah’s critics whose cars mysteriously blew up, Badreddine was killed by a conveniently unexplained blast and could not be prosecuted by the tribunal because he was dead, another loose end tied up.
Hezbollah’s gaslighting of the Lebanese people is brutally obvious. The day before the verdict was issued, Hezbollah supporters had been posting photos of Badreddine online alongside the hashtag “whomever we killed deserved it.” Immediately after the court convicted him for murdering 22 people, a banner was raised by Hezbollah supporters in Ayyash’s hometown honoring him as a “proud son of the resistance.”
Lebanon’s public have always known who is holding the knife to their necks.
Hariri had to go. The prime minister was a popular and charismatic billionaire entrepreneur who had powerful allies in the Middle East and in the West, and had governed Lebanon for a decade, for all but two years from 1992 to 2004. Hariri had prospered in the years of reconstruction following the end of the bitter civil war. It was then that Lebanon, despite being constrained by much of the same corruption, incompetence, and sectarianism that still rules today, began to see signs of growth following years of darkness.
The Taif Agreement, which ended Lebanon’s civil war, also became a permanent shackle around its neck, with sectarianism becoming the permanent and unreformable foundation of Lebanese politics. Despite agreements for the full withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, and the full disarmament of militias, the Taif Agreement was never fully implemented. While the problems of today have not changed significantly from the problems of 2005, developments such as the Cedar Revolution and the Syrian civil war have changed the equation.
Lebanon following the civil war effectively became a client state for Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had more than 15,000 troops occupying territory across the country. The Assad regime dominated Lebanese politics, handpicking its president and forcing pro-regime lawmakers onto election slates.
Lebanon was never going to be a shining beacon of liberal democracy in the Middle East under this postwar system. But after years of bloodshed, the Lebanese people were at long last able to start living their lives again.
Hariri was also no hard-liner against the Syrian regime. He had been complying with the regime’s demands for many years before the political realities in Lebanon started to change. Before Hariri’s assassination, Assad was demanding a term-limit extension for his preferred pro-regime president, Émile Lahoud, even though it violated Lebanon’s constitution. This was a deeply unpopular move in Lebanon as the country grew weary of Syrian military occupation, and opposition to the regime’s dominance over political affairs was growing.
Political opposition to Hezbollah’s armed status was also increasing, and Hariri’s growing relationship with the so-called Bristol Group, a cross-confessional political grouping established following the aftermath of the Lahoud extension, that convened at the Bristol Hotel in Beirut to call for the full compliance with the disarmament and withdrawal of the Taif Agreement.
The reality of the relationship between Hariri and the Assad regime was laid bare by the transcripts of recordings of meetings between Hariri and Assad’s diplomatic henchman Walid Muallem passed to the Special Tribunal.
“We want a pro-Syrian regime in Lebanon,” Hariri said. “But, at the same time, Lebanon will not be ruled by Syria forever.”
The conversation was strained, and Hariri’s routine acquiescence to the regime became apparent, but Hariri was signing his own death warrant by saying what nobody was allowed to say in Lebanon to Hezbollah or Assad: “No.”
“Brother, you are like a father to me. Is there more? Can you be more than that? You may be my father, OK, but I can’t accept for you to choose the woman I will marry, what she will wear, name my children, which school they will attend,” Hariri said to a Syrian diplomatic representative. “You know how there is interference in every small detail in the country.”
A day after this conversation took place, Hariri would join with the Bristol Group opposition in calling for the immediate and total withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.
Less than two weeks later, Hariri was dead.
The real hero of the farcical Hariri tribunal is a man whose name appears only once in footnote in the full judgement. Hariri’s murder, like so many of Hezbollah’s assassinations, would have remained shrouded forever but for the bravery, genius, and defiance of one man.
When the Lebanese Internal Security Forces intelligence officer Capt. Wissam Eid was handed responsibility for the organization’s investigation into the Hariri assassination, few expected it was a case he could solve. Perhaps he wasn’t even supposed to.
But Eid was no run-of-the-mill police officer—he was a once-in-a-generation analytical genius. While the Special Tribunal notably poured scorn on how the Lebanese authorities handled the crime scene and subsequent investigation, not one word was saved for the man whose investigation was the basis of the overwhelming weight of telecommunications evidence that initiated the tribunal.
Hezbollah had no idea just who they were up against.
Using nothing but an Excel spreadsheet and raw cell tower communications data, over the course of one year, Wissam Eid painstakingly found patterns in the data that he successfully identified as a comprehensive network of mobile devices used to both plan and execute the Hariri assassination.
As Eid began getting closer to the truth, the death threats began. He began to receive messages that the phones he was investigating belonged to Hezbollah, and that he should stop digging.
Far from being intimidated, Eid began sleeping in his office so he could finish his investigation and not endanger the life of his family. Astonishingly, he cracked the case.
But this groundbreaking achievement of Alan Turing-like brilliance was not celebrated—it was ignored. Eid had cracked the case in 2006. He had sent his report to the United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission, a report he had risked his life to write, one that few people could have ever written. It remained ignored for at least a year.
A year later, someone from the U.N. commission’s team eventually found Eid’s report and finally established contact. The man who alone had uncovered Hezbollah’s complicity in the murder of Hariri was finally being heard. A few weeks later, Wissam Eid was killed by a car bomb.
But while Eid’s slaying will never be the subject of an international tribunal, nobody in Lebanon is in any doubt as to who is responsible.
Without Eid’s telecommunications data investigation, there would be no conviction for Salim Ayyash, there would be no evidence of Badreddine’s involvement, and the Lebanese public could continue to bury their heads in the sand about who was responsible for the murder of 22 of their fellow citizens on Feb. 14, 2005.
It is remarkable that Eid wasn’t prominently recognized by the tribunal. Without him, they would have had nothing. Despite 11 years of work, the overwhelming majority of their evidence against Hezbollah was discovered by one man three years before the tribunal even started.
But Eid’s sacrifice will see no justice, his genius won’t be marked by statues or street names, and his bravery won’t be taught in schools—at least not as long as Hezbollah continues to threaten every speaker of truth in Lebanon from the shadows.
Speaking to Foreign Policy, Eid’s parents Mahmoud and Samira Eid expressed their pride in their son’s achievements following the conclusion of the tribunal.
“Wissam sacrificed his life for his work,” they said, speaking jointly in response to questions e-mailed earlier. “Despite the big opportunities he had and the threats he received, he refused to leave his work and continued till the very end.”
Eid’s parents were also in no doubt that if he had continued to work on the case, it could have gone further.
“Had he been alive, he would have been of great help to the investigations and he wouldn’t have been surprised with the verdict simply because what he discovered 15 years ago was beyond any doubt,” they said. “The only evidence that the court took into consideration is the communication data which Wissam was able to discover one year after the assassination relying on personal effort and using simple techniques.”
Like many Lebanese, Samira and Mahmoud expressed their frustration and disappointment that the verdict did not go further.
“We accept its verdict. It’s true that we wanted to know the assassin, but we were hoping to know who orchestrated this assassination,” they said.
They are not alone in that sentiment.
Some in Lebanon are now arguing whether the tribunal was worth it at all. The defendants were tried in absentia, and, as a result, if Ayyash is ever apprehended he will have to be tried all over again. There is no chance Hezbollah will admit complicity, and even if the court had convicted Nasrallah himself, it would have made no material difference to the lives of Lebanese people.
Lebanon remains a country held hostage by a murderous foreign-backed terrorist organization. There is no prospect of economic or political reform that does not require dismantling Hezbollah, and there is no prospect of dismantling Hezbollah without a civil war, and Hezbollah’s leadership has started threatening the Lebanese public again with the simple message: fall in line or you will be next.
The mass protest movement that has been raging since October 2019 under the slogan “All of them means all of them,” referring to the entirety of Lebanon’s corrupt political ruling class, has escalated following the ammonium nitrate blast that smashed Beirut’s port into pieces earlier this month. Effigies of Lebanese politicians, including Hassan Nasrallah, are being publicly hanged in the streets of Beirut, a city close to an uprising. But while the Lebanese public may be sick of all of their sectarian overlords, Hezbollah holds dominion over all, with its terrifying domestic military capabilities dwarfing that of many regional states.
The mood in the international community toward Hezbollah has started shifting, with the United Kingdom and Germany recently moving toward Washington’s position by proscribing Hezbollah in full after many years of trying to draw a distinction between Hezbollah’s military and political wings. (Even by Hezbollah’s own standards, no such distinction exists.) France and the wider European Union, so far, remain unconvinced on the issue, but with an international tribunal conviction and the introduction of sanctions against the Assad regime and its allies under the Caesar Act in the United States , Hezbollah is beginning to find itself increasingly isolated. But an isolated Hezbollah is simple a more paranoid and violent Hezbollah, and the international community can’t defeat the group by closing a few offshore European bank accounts.
Samira and Mahmoud Eid tell me that justice in Lebanon “will only be served when the people behind the assassinations are sentenced and held accountable. Whoever killed Rafik Hariri killed Wissam Eid and the rest of the martyrs. Justice will be served by punishing those who planned, not those who served as mere tools to commit the murders.”
But even after 11 years of work, that justice seems as far away as it was on Feb. 14, 2005.