foreignpolicy--2020-05-09--How Are Countries Reopening? Firsthand Reports From Around the World

Leave it to the Germans to come up with a sinuous , unpronounceable , and entirely perfect word to describe the slew of debates over how and when to reopen economies locked down due to the coronavirus : Öffnungsdiskussionsorgien , or opening discussion orgies .
These orgies have been unfolding in just about every country that has shut restaurants and schools , grounded flights , and required citizens to stay home .
Despite general agreement with lockdown decisions , there are now heated debates about what the new normal should be—and how to get there .
That debate varies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus .
China , where the outbreak originated , has slowly reopened Wuhan .
New Zealand says the virus is “ currently eliminated ” there and is talking about resuming flights to Australia .
Brazil locked down its first major cities this week , while other countries , such as Canada , Japan , and Sri Lanka , also tightened rules .
And Africa , which was largely spared during the initial wave , is now facing a rising number of cases with only limited medical resources .
Over the last two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , former colleagues , and acquaintances around the world—a network I ’ ve developed over two decades working in foreign policy—to learn how their societies were preparing to reopen .
I heard from more than 70 people in 65 countries , who sent me anecdotes and press clips that provided a snapshot of life under COVID-19 in early May .
People are universally missing their extended families , especially older relatives , who faced the most severe restrictions in some countries given their vulnerability to the virus .
Switzerland recently allowed children under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and France eased its restrictions on nursing home visits .
But folks in Britain were told to wait .
Spare a thought for parents who have been trapped indoors with their children for weeks .
A frustrated American expat in Colombia said dogs can go outside for 20 minutes several times a day but kids across the country have not been allowed to leave the house for any reason at all .
A little relief is coming : Starting May 11 , children over 6 will be allowed outside three times a week—but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minutes each time .
Parents in Spain , who were under strict lockdown with their children since March 14 , recently received a reprieve but in a rather bumbling fashion .
On April 21 , the Spanish government announced that kids aged 14 and under could go outside beginning April 27—but only to accompany a parent on an errand .
Parents revolted , and hours later , the policy was amended to allow kids outdoors once a day for one hour and within less than a mile of home .
There is disagreement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as France , Israel , and Slovenia ) are starting to send little kids back to school , whereas others ( like Germany , Greece , Portugal , Senegal , South Korea , and Vietnam ) are focusing on older ones .
Sweden kept young kids in school the entire time , while neighboring Denmark , Finland , and Norway are only now allowing them to resume their studies .
Several ( such as Pakistan and Turkey ) will make decisions at the end of May , while others ( including Paraguay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until December .
Given health concerns , some parents prefer to keep their children at home .
In Australia , their right to do so varies by state .
In Northern Ireland , the government closed schools until September , as its modeling showed that less than 10 percent of parents would return their kids sooner .
Nicaragua has not closed schools , though some 40 percent of students are absent .
In Sweden , two friends shared anecdotes about nervous neighbors who wanted to keep their children at home ; in both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comply with mandatory attendance would have consequences .
The pandemic has prompted the Japanese government to consider overhauling its schedule entirely : The academic year traditionally begins in April , but there is now a debate about shifting the start to September .
Safety remains a priority , though some are promoting dubious methods .
In Madagascar , the country ’ s president gave returning students face masks and bottles of herbal extract that he promised would protect them .
Confronted with stay-at-home orders , creative minds have sought ways around the rules @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to wheel their trash cans to the curb .
An American expat in Spain promised her teary tween that for her 12th birthday she could help take the trash 50 yards to a communal receptacle across the courtyard ; that special gift was scrapped after a police car parked nearby .
To take advantage of exemptions allowing owners to walk their pets , one person in Romania took his fish on a walk , while a young woman put her cat in a bag to justify a trip to the mall .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their cars to bypass checkpoints ; an expat said some people bought stickers from corrupt officials or printed their own , while others hired pregnant women to accompany them on errands under the guise of driving them to the hospital .
Many are savoring fresh air after weeks in quarantine .
South Africans are allowed to exercise outside again , while Israelis can now venture a third of a mile for sports or prayer .
Serbs over 65 can take daily one-hour walks and shop for groceries from 4 a.m. to 7 a.m. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ designated routes for pregnant women and accompanied children .
In Colombia , people between the ages of 18 and 70 can exercise outside between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. New guidance in Spain is so complicated that residents need graphs to determine who is allowed outside when .
A Belgian friend said her compatriots were perplexed by the inclusion of kayaking on the list of newly allowable activities , with many preferring to line up for hours after the McDonald ’ s drive-thru reopened .
Perhaps they were following the advice of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to eat more french fries given excess supply .
A Greek friend shared a poll showing haircuts topped the list of most desirable activities when lockdown ended .
Swedes benefited from salons that remained open , with a friend in Malmo joking that his compatriots could be distinguished from their Nordic neighbors based on their tidy heads .
In Germany , hair salons reopened on May 4—but with so many manes that need tending , wait times of one month or more for appointments are common .
( Little tip from the Germans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) In Ireland , where salons aren ’ t slated to open until late July , a black market has emerged .
South Africans haven ’ t been allowed to buy alcohol since the lockdown began on March 26 .
A friend said vineyards in the Cape region are going bust , many of their workers are starving , and sober locals are trying to extract alcohol from hand sanitizer or make pineapple beer at home .
Although cigarettes have been available since May 1 , alcohol remains off-limits .
When Indians were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 days of lockdown , there were chaotic scenes of excited crowds that led local governments to close stores and impose a special alcohol tax .
When an Australian friend ’ s husband tried to buy gin , champagne , and beer , the shop clerk told him to put one bottle back due to sales limits to prevent panic-buying .
Finns did not face such restrictions , as they continued their practice of kalsarikannit—getting “ pantsdrunk ” at home in their underwear .
Pubs in Ireland are expected to be shuttered until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open in Sweden , a friend admitted that the prime minister ’ s admonition to “ use common sense ” when social distancing was more challenging after a few pints .
Believers are anxious to worship together .
In Cuba , the coronavirus led the government to relent on its decades-long opposition to televising Mass .
In Greece , churches will reopen in mid-May with social distancing restrictions , but even the most open-minded archbishops are reluctant to deviate from the traditional practice of sharing the communion cup .
In Croatia , churches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attendance , even though businesses and secular institutions must restrict their numbers .
Italian priests are furious at the government ’ s refusal to reopen churches for anything other than small funerals .
COVID-19 restrictions are hampering Muslim celebrations of Ramadan .
A Jordanian friend said working at home has made fasting easier this year .
An Iraqi friend said his compatriots are frustrated by their inability to organize and afford traditionally large iftar dinners .
Several countries ( such as Niger and Tunisia ) relaxed curfew restrictions to allow extra time for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions about pilgrimages to holy cities .
The kingdom partially lifted the daily curfew on April 26 , but 24-hour restrictions remain for Mecca .
The annual hajj is due in late July , but the government has warned against purchasing plane tickets .
According to a longtime Saudi Arabia watcher , it is torn between responsible medical practice and the loss of revenue and prestige .
Meanwhile , Tanzanian President John Magufuli remains an outlier in Africa by resisting a nationwide lockdown , though he did fire the head of the national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results on a goat and a pawpaw .
Instead , he is telling citizens that prayer can fight the virus and keep the economy moving .
Others simply want to eat .
While some people in Western countries lament missing ingredients on grocery shelves , many in less developed places worry about starvation .
Press reports have described desperate Kenyans stampeding for flour and cooking oil , Indian workers lining up across their country to receive bread and vegetables , and poor Colombians hanging red flags from their windows to signify hunger .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the service sector , which comprises over half of Latin American GDP .
In Mexico , an expat said nearly half the population lives off the informal economy with day-to-day earnings : If they don ’ t work , they don ’ t eat .
A Peruvian student living in the United States said his government introduced strict quarantine measures but markets remained filled with people and the number of cases soared to the region ’ s second-highest .
According to a Cuban American friend , the difficulty of finding basic goods means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daily trips to the grocery and wait in long lines .
There are similar challenges across Africa , compounded for East Africans by the wave of locusts threatening livelihoods and food security .
There is growing debate , according to several friends across the continent , about the appropriateness of the Western-influenced lockdown model for African economies .
As millions of urban poor subsist hand to mouth under cramped living conditions , continued income and social safety nets can save lives too .
Libya is struggling to prepare for a COVID-19 outbreak amid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friend .
Warring groups are targeting medical facilities and cutting water supplies , with artillery hitting a hospital last month that was designated for treating coronavirus patients .
Doctors and nurses are torn between treating those with the virus and treating war wounds .
An Afghan friend said his government ’ s response to the pandemic is hindered by a poor health care system , rising food prices , a worsening security environment , and porous borders with hard-hit neighbors ( including Iran and China ) .

A stylist washes a customer’s hair at a salon in Burgos, Spain, on May 4. It was the first time the salon was open since the country’s lockdown began. CESAR MANSO/AFP via Getty Images
Leave it to the Germans to come up with a sinuous, unpronounceable, and entirely perfect word to describe the slew of debates over how and when to reopen economies locked down due to the coronavirus: Öffnungsdiskussionsorgien, or opening discussion orgies. These orgies have been unfolding in just about every country that has shut restaurants and schools, grounded flights, and required citizens to stay home. Despite general agreement with lockdown decisions, there are now heated debates about what the new normal should be—and how to get there. That debate varies, of course, with the progress of the virus. China, where the outbreak originated, has slowly reopened Wuhan. New Zealand says the virus is “currently eliminated” there and is talking about resuming flights to Australia. Brazil locked down its first major cities this week, while other countries, such as Canada, Japan, and Sri Lanka, also tightened rules. And Africa, which was largely spared during the initial wave, is now facing a rising number of cases with only limited medical resources. [Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.] Over the last two weeks, I emailed and texted friends, former colleagues, and acquaintances around the world—a network I’ve developed over two decades working in foreign policy—to learn how their societies were preparing to reopen. I heard from more than 70 people in 65 countries, who sent me anecdotes and press clips that provided a snapshot of life under COVID-19 in early May. Everyone misses grandma… People are universally missing their extended families, especially older relatives, who faced the most severe restrictions in some countries given their vulnerability to the virus. Switzerland recently allowed children under 10 to hug their grandparents again, and France eased its restrictions on nursing home visits. But folks in Britain were told to wait. A woman shows her mother photos from her smartphone through a window at a retirement home in Roche-la-Molière, France, on April 15. …but parents are fatigued by house-bound kids. Spare a thought for parents who have been trapped indoors with their children for weeks. A frustrated American expat in Colombia said dogs can go outside for 20 minutes several times a day but kids across the country have not been allowed to leave the house for any reason at all. A little relief is coming: Starting May 11, children over 6 will be allowed outside three times a week—but only with an adult and only 30 minutes each time. Parents in Spain, who were under strict lockdown with their children since March 14, recently received a reprieve but in a rather bumbling fashion. On April 21, the Spanish government announced that kids aged 14 and under could go outside beginning April 27—but only to accompany a parent on an errand. Parents revolted, and hours later, the policy was amended to allow kids outdoors once a day for one hour and within less than a mile of home. Yuki Sato, an employee at a start-up company, works from home in Tokyo on March 23 as his daughters Yurina (left) and Hinano play. There is disagreement over reopening schools. Some countries (such as France, Israel, and Slovenia) are starting to send little kids back to school, whereas others (like Germany, Greece, Portugal, Senegal, South Korea, and Vietnam) are focusing on older ones. Sweden kept young kids in school the entire time, while neighboring Denmark, Finland, and Norway are only now allowing them to resume their studies. Several (such as Pakistan and Turkey) will make decisions at the end of May, while others (including Paraguay and Peru) have scrapped in-person classes until December. Given health concerns, some parents prefer to keep their children at home. In Australia, their right to do so varies by state. In Northern Ireland, the government closed schools until September, as its modeling showed that less than 10 percent of parents would return their kids sooner. Nicaragua has not closed schools, though some 40 percent of students are absent. In Sweden, two friends shared anecdotes about nervous neighbors who wanted to keep their children at home; in both cases, principals warned that failure to comply with mandatory attendance would have consequences. The pandemic has prompted the Japanese government to consider overhauling its schedule entirely: The academic year traditionally begins in April, but there is now a debate about shifting the start to September. Safety remains a priority, though some are promoting dubious methods. In Madagascar, the country’s president gave returning students face masks and bottles of herbal extract that he promised would protect them. Bottles of Covid Organics, an herbal tea touted by Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina as a remedy against COVID-19, sits on the desks of students at J.J. Rabearivelo High School in Antananarivo on April 23. People are craving fresh air… Confronted with stay-at-home orders, creative minds have sought ways around the rules. In Australia, people wore costumes to wheel their trash cans to the curb. An American expat in Spain promised her teary tween that for her 12th birthday she could help take the trash 50 yards to a communal receptacle across the courtyard; that special gift was scrapped after a police car parked nearby. To take advantage of exemptions allowing owners to walk their pets, one person in Romania took his fish on a walk, while a young woman put her cat in a bag to justify a trip to the mall. In Uganda, essential workers received stickers for their cars to bypass checkpoints; an expat said some people bought stickers from corrupt officials or printed their own, while others hired pregnant women to accompany them on errands under the guise of driving them to the hospital. Many are savoring fresh air after weeks in quarantine. South Africans are allowed to exercise outside again, while Israelis can now venture a third of a mile for sports or prayer. Serbs over 65 can take daily one-hour walks and shop for groceries from 4 a.m. to 7 a.m. A Bulgarian friend said parks have opened designated routes for pregnant women and accompanied children. In Colombia, people between the ages of 18 and 70 can exercise outside between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. New guidance in Spain is so complicated that residents need graphs to determine who is allowed outside when. A Belgian friend said her compatriots were perplexed by the inclusion of kayaking on the list of newly allowable activities, with many preferring to line up for hours after the McDonald’s drive-thru reopened. Perhaps they were following the advice of the local potato industry, which urged Belgians to eat more french fries given excess supply.
A young girl stretches during a bike ride in a park in Seville, Spain, on April 26. After six weeks stuck at home, Spain’s children were allowed out—though the guidance was complicated. …and long for a haircut. A Greek friend shared a poll showing haircuts topped the list of most desirable activities when lockdown ended. Swedes benefited from salons that remained open, with a friend in Malmo joking that his compatriots could be distinguished from their Nordic neighbors based on their tidy heads. In Germany, hair salons reopened on May 4—but with so many manes that need tending, wait times of one month or more for appointments are common. (Little tip from the Germans: Get on the waitlist now.) In Ireland, where salons aren’t slated to open until late July, a black market has emerged. A stylist cuts hair in Switzerland. Some simply want a stiff drink. South Africans haven’t been allowed to buy alcohol since the lockdown began on March 26. A friend said vineyards in the Cape region are going bust, many of their workers are starving, and sober locals are trying to extract alcohol from hand sanitizer or make pineapple beer at home. Cigarettes were supposed to be available by May 1, then became off-limits again. When Indians were allowed to purchase alcohol this week after 40 days of lockdown, there were chaotic scenes of excited crowds that led local governments to close stores and impose a special alcohol tax. When an Australian friend’s husband tried to buy gin, champagne, and beer, the shop clerk told him to put one bottle back due to sales limits to prevent panic-buying. Finns did not face such restrictions, as they continued their practice of kalsarikannit—getting “pantsdrunk” at home in their underwear. Pubs in Ireland are expected to be shuttered until Aug. 10. And although bars remained open in Sweden, a friend admitted that the prime minister’s admonition to “use common sense” when social distancing was more challenging after a few pints.
A man carries cases of beer from a liquor shop after the government eased a nationwide lockdown on alcohol in Gurgaon, India, on May 6. Believers are anxious to worship together. In Cuba, the coronavirus led the government to relent on its decades-long opposition to televising Mass. In Greece, churches will reopen in mid-May with social distancing restrictions, but even the most open-minded archbishops are reluctant to deviate from the traditional practice of sharing the communion cup. In Croatia, churches can resume Mass with no limit on attendance, even though businesses and secular institutions must restrict their numbers. Italian priests are furious at the government’s refusal to reopen churches for anything other than small funerals. COVID-19 restrictions are hampering Muslim celebrations of Ramadan. A Jordanian friend said working at home has made fasting easier this year. An Iraqi friend said his compatriots are frustrated by their inability to organize and afford traditionally large iftar dinners. Several countries (such as Niger and Tunisia) relaxed curfew restrictions to allow extra time for shopping. Saudi Arabia continues to face questions about pilgrimages to holy cities. The kingdom partially lifted the daily curfew on April 26, but 24-hour restrictions remain for Mecca. The annual hajj is due in late July, but the government has warned against purchasing plane tickets. According to a longtime Saudi Arabia watcher, it is torn between responsible medical practice and the loss of revenue and prestige. Meanwhile, Tanzanian President John Magufuli remains an outlier in Africa by resisting a nationwide lockdown, though he did fire the head of the national laboratory after imported test kits returned positive results on a goat and a pawpaw. Instead, he is telling citizens that prayer can fight the virus and keep the economy moving.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-11--Biden Gets Push From Left-Leaning Groups to Slash Pentagon Budget

Biden Gets Push From Left-Leaning Groups to Slash Pentagon Budget A month after Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed his rival Joe Biden as the Democratic Party ’ s candidate to take on President Donald Trump in November , the former U.S. vice president is getting a strong push from progressive groups to swiftly move his foreign-policy platform to the left .
In a letter shared exclusively with Foreign Policy organized by Demand Progress , more than 50 groups , including Code Pink , Greenpeace , and MoveOn , are asking Biden to shift his priorities further to the left by slashing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 200 billion each year and to reverse some of Trump ’ s biggest military priorities , such as refurbishing the U.S. nuclear arsenal and shelving the creation of the Space Force as the sixth branch of the military .
“ For decades , U.S. foreign policy has been overly focused on confrontation with perceived adversaries and the global projection of U.S. military power , ” the groups say in the letter , set to be sent to the Biden campaign on Monday .
“ Doing so has militarized our response to global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ priorities , toxified our political discourse , and left us woefully ill-prepared to confront the growing transnational threats to human security we face today that do not have military solutions.
” “ The American people are looking for a leader who will turn the page on 9/11 policies that have resulted in an endless cycle of war , ” the letter states .
The groups are also asking Biden to curb the Trump administration ’ s campaign of sanctions and military pressure against Iran if elected and to reengage diplomatically with Russia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say Monday ’ s letter is likely to be the only salvo pushing Biden toward the left on foreign policy during the 2020 campaign .
But as the coronavirus pandemic has emptied Washington ’ s proverbially smoke-filled rooms in favor of Zoom conferences , there are mixed assessments from Democrats about whether Sanders ’ s message is breaking through .
“ It ’ s been challenging getting specific commitments on many of these issues from the Biden campaign , ” Yasmine Taeb , a senior policy counsel at Demand Progress and an organizer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We also wanted to ensure Biden ’ s campaign understands how important these foreign-policy issues are to the grassroots.
” Taeb said the signatories are hoping to get a meeting with Biden ’ s staff as a follow-up to the letter to discuss their concerns , which also include sunsetting the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force used as a legal justification for the U.S. war in Afghanistan and the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria , admitting more refugees into the United States , and opposing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For its part , Biden ’ s team—comprising mostly centrists who staffed the Obama administration—has showed a willingness to engage with the Sanders campaign in recent weeks , Foreign Policy recently reported , touching base with members of the Vermont senator ’ s team in attempts to develop a unified foreign-policy platform .
Matt Duss , Sanders ’ s foreign-policy advisor in the Senate , said the talks have been “ encouraging.
” But a source familiar with the talks between the two camps told Foreign Policy that the conversations had not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ending to the primary season , as the Sanders campaign was not populated by former Clinton and Obama administration officials , who staffed up with his Democratic rivals .
Sanders supporters need to be able to make the case to Biden that leaning left on foreign-policy issues can be a winner in a general election campaign , experts said , just as Barack Obama used his opposition to the Iraq War and willingness to talk to Iran without preconditions to catapult himself to the White House in 2008 .
“ The defining difference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and [ John ] McCain was his Iraq position , ” Joel Rubin , the former director for Jewish outreach on the Sanders campaign , told Foreign Policy .
“ That differentiation issue for Biden versus Trump has not yet been defined , but Iran could be one.
” “ The political value of these positions needs to be demonstrated to the Biden team , ” said Rubin , who also served as a deputy assistant secretary of state during the Obama administration .
Duss , the Sanders advisor , said staffers for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden will fill key roles in his administration with progressives if he ’ s able to defeat Trump in November .
Biden has supported key progressive priorities mentioned in the letter in the past , such as the closure of the Guantánamo Bay prison facility that stalled under the Obama administration and that signatories of the letter are pushing for him to shutter .
He also backed a War Powers Resolution that passed both houses of Congress in 2019 to end U.S. backing for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen .
But despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the former vice president , who helped oversee an expansion of U.S. troop involvement in Afghanistan and the start of a six-year U.S.-led effort to drive the Islamic State out of Iraq and Syria , has been reticent to uproot U.S. forces from the post-9/11 wars .
The Delaware Democrat supports what he calls a “ counterterrorism-plus ” strategy that would leave small contingents of U.S. special operations forces stationed abroad to train up and provide extra firepower for local troops fighting the Islamic State and al Qaeda , similar to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and through ” strategy that took shape under the Obama and Trump administrations .
Progressives may seek to push back against Biden ’ s insistence on keeping residual forces abroad if he takes the White House in November .
“ Progressives just need to keep organizing and mobilizing behind the goal of ending the forever wars and strengthening nonmilitary elements of our foreign policy , ” said Duss , the Sanders advisor .
“ I think we already had a strong case , but the pandemic has shown as clearly as possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s security priorities and investments over the past two decades have been not just wrong but counterproductive , and it ’ s time for a major shift.
” But the spread of the novel coronavirus , which has frozen most of the 200,000 U.S. troops stationed overseas in place as the Pentagon explores how to safely resume operations , is already creating downward pressure on the Defense Department budget and leading to calls from high-ranking Democrats for further cuts .
“ Of all the needs that we face in this country , [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more money on basic DoD to go buy more planes or ships or boats or anything like that , ” Rep. Adam Smith , the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee , told reporters on a call last month .

A month after Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed his rival Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate to take on President Donald Trump in November, the former U.S. vice president is getting a strong push from progressive groups to swiftly move his foreign-policy platform to the left.
A month after Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed his rival Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate to take on President Donald Trump in November, the former U.S. vice president is getting a strong push from progressive groups to swiftly move his foreign-policy platform to the left.
In a letter shared exclusively with Foreign Policy organized by Demand Progress, more than 50 groups, including Code Pink, Greenpeace, and MoveOn, are asking Biden to shift his priorities further to the left by slashing the Defense Department’s budget by $200 billion each year and to reverse some of Trump’s biggest military priorities, such as refurbishing the U.S. nuclear arsenal and shelving the creation of the Space Force as the sixth branch of the military.
“For decades, U.S. foreign policy has been overly focused on confrontation with perceived adversaries and the global projection of U.S. military power,” the groups say in the letter, set to be sent to the Biden campaign on Monday. “Doing so has militarized our response to global challenges, distorted our national security spending priorities, toxified our political discourse, and left us woefully ill-prepared to confront the growing transnational threats to human security we face today that do not have military solutions.”
“The American people are looking for a leader who will turn the page on 9/11 policies that have resulted in an endless cycle of war,” the letter states. The groups are also asking Biden to curb the Trump administration’s campaign of sanctions and military pressure against Iran if elected and to reengage diplomatically with Russia, China, and North Korea.
Advocates say Monday’s letter is likely to be the only salvo pushing Biden toward the left on foreign policy during the 2020 campaign. But as the coronavirus pandemic has emptied Washington’s proverbially smoke-filled rooms in favor of Zoom conferences, there are mixed assessments from Democrats about whether Sanders’s message is breaking through.
“It’s been challenging getting specific commitments on many of these issues from the Biden campaign,” Yasmine Taeb, a senior policy counsel at Demand Progress and an organizer of the letter, told Foreign Policy. “We also wanted to ensure Biden’s campaign understands how important these foreign-policy issues are to the grassroots.”
Taeb said the signatories are hoping to get a meeting with Biden’s staff as a follow-up to the letter to discuss their concerns, which also include sunsetting the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force used as a legal justification for the U.S. war in Afghanistan and the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, admitting more refugees into the United States, and opposing interventions and sanctions aimed at regime change.
For its part, Biden’s team—comprising mostly centrists who staffed the Obama administration—has showed a willingness to engage with the Sanders campaign in recent weeks, Foreign Policy recently reported, touching base with members of the Vermont senator’s team in attempts to develop a unified foreign-policy platform. Matt Duss, Sanders’s foreign-policy advisor in the Senate, said the talks have been “encouraging.”
But a source familiar with the talks between the two camps told Foreign Policy that the conversations had not advanced beyond informal dialogues despite the amicable ending to the primary season, as the Sanders campaign was not populated by former Clinton and Obama administration officials, who staffed up with his Democratic rivals.
Sanders supporters need to be able to make the case to Biden that leaning left on foreign-policy issues can be a winner in a general election campaign, experts said, just as Barack Obama used his opposition to the Iraq War and willingness to talk to Iran without preconditions to catapult himself to the White House in 2008.
“The defining difference for Obama with Hillary [Clinton] and [John] McCain was his Iraq position,” Joel Rubin, the former director for Jewish outreach on the Sanders campaign, told Foreign Policy. “That differentiation issue for Biden versus Trump has not yet been defined, but Iran could be one.”
“The political value of these positions needs to be demonstrated to the Biden team,” said Rubin, who also served as a deputy assistant secretary of state during the Obama administration. Duss, the Sanders advisor, said staffers for the senator “hope and expect” Biden will fill key roles in his administration with progressives if he’s able to defeat Trump in November.
Biden has supported key progressive priorities mentioned in the letter in the past, such as the closure of the Guantánamo Bay prison facility that stalled under the Obama administration and that signatories of the letter are pushing for him to shutter. He also backed a War Powers Resolution that passed both houses of Congress in 2019 to end U.S. backing for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen.
But despite being a foreign-policy outlier in some respects, the former vice president, who helped oversee an expansion of U.S. troop involvement in Afghanistan and the start of a six-year U.S.-led effort to drive the Islamic State out of Iraq and Syria, has been reticent to uproot U.S. forces from the post-9/11 wars.
The Delaware Democrat supports what he calls a “counterterrorism-plus” strategy that would leave small contingents of U.S. special operations forces stationed abroad to train up and provide extra firepower for local troops fighting the Islamic State and al Qaeda, similar to the Pentagon’s “by, with, and through” strategy that took shape under the Obama and Trump administrations.
Progressives may seek to push back against Biden’s insistence on keeping residual forces abroad if he takes the White House in November.
“Progressives just need to keep organizing and mobilizing behind the goal of ending the forever wars and strengthening nonmilitary elements of our foreign policy,” said Duss, the Sanders advisor. “I think we already had a strong case, but the pandemic has shown as clearly as possible that so many of our country’s security priorities and investments over the past two decades have been not just wrong but counterproductive, and it’s time for a major shift.”
But the spread of the novel coronavirus, which has frozen most of the 200,000 U.S. troops stationed overseas in place as the Pentagon explores how to safely resume operations, is already creating downward pressure on the Defense Department budget and leading to calls from high-ranking Democrats for further cuts.
“Of all the needs that we face in this country, [my priority is not] to spend more money on basic DoD to go buy more planes or ships or boats or anything like that,” Rep. Adam Smith, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, told reporters on a call last month.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-11--South Korea Shows That Defeating Coronavirus Isn’t Quick or Easy

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : South Korea sees a spike in coronavirus cases , Libya ’ s civil war intensifies , and Argentina faces a key debt deadline .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
As governments across the globe move to ease lockdowns , countries that have been celebrated for besting the coronavirus are proving how difficult an enemy it is to vanquish .
On Sunday , Germany ’ s R number ( a value used to estimate the ability of the disease to spread from person to person ) increased to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could again spread exponentially among the population .
The Robert Koch Institute , the government public health agency that produces coronavirus statistics , warned that the R number estimate was “ linked to a degree of uncertainty ” but would nonetheless “ observe the development very closely.
” Chancellor Angela Merkel announced an easing of restrictions last Wednesday , but has said an “ emergency brake ” would be applied and previous lockdown measures would resume if cases started to rise .
In South Korea , President Moon Jae-in said the country was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as daily coronavirus cases spiked to their highest point in a month , with 34 new cases reported .
The mayor of Seoul effectively ordered pubs and nightclubs to be shut after a man in his late 20s infected 24 people in the nightlife district of Itaewon .
China , the original virus epicenter , reported its highest number of daily coronavirus cases since April 28 with 17 ; five of those cases were traced to Wuhan .
A good problem to have .
Of course , although the trend is worrying , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the worst-hit countries would gladly trade places for .
The United States , the United Kingdom , and Spain—the three countries with the most confirmed coronavirus cases—together reported approximately 26,000 new cases on May 10 .
The United States made up the vast majority of that figure with over 20,000 new cases reported .
The bad news is compounded by the revelation that the White House is now facing its own localized coronavirus outbreak .
How are other countries handling reopening ?
Writing in Foreign Policy , Amanda Sloat looked at 65 countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a desire for fresh air ( and a haircut ) was nearly universal .
China refutes U.S. allegations .
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Friday amended a visa rule for Chinese journalists entering the United States to work for foreign news outlets in the latest tit-fot-tat battle between the United States and China over the status of journalists in both countries .
Under the new rule , the visas of Chinese journalists will only be valid for 90 days—although they can be renewed for further 90-day periods .
In March , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Street Journal , the New York Times , and the Washington Post from working in mainland China as well as Hong Kong and Macao .
On Saturday night , China ’ s Foreign Ministry mounted a defense from repeated U.S. claims of a Chinese cover-up surrounding the origins of coronavirus by posting a 30,000 word rebuttal on its website .
It begins by quoting a phrase often atttributed to Abraham Lincoln : “ As Lincoln said , you can fool some of the people all the time and fool all the people some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not fool all the people all the time.
” Libya conflict escalates .
Libya ’ s civil war intensified over the weekend as the Libyan National Army ( LNA ) , led by Khalifa Haftar , bombarded Tripoli with artillery fire .
Haftar ’ s forces have been trying to wrest control of Tripoli away from the internationally backed Government of National Accord ( GNA ) for the past 13 months .
Tripoli ’ s remaining airport was targeted on Saturday by rockets that destroyed fuel tanks and caused shrapnel to come close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The UN Mission in Libya ( UNSMIL ) said that Saturday ’ s airport strike was “ one in a series of indiscriminate attacks , most of which are attributable to pro-LNA forces.
” UNSMIL added that up to 15 civilians have reportedly been killed in May alone , with a further 50 injured .
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan— whose military is cooperating with the GNA—said that Haftar ’ s attacks on what he deemed Turkish interests in Libya could soon make his forces “ legitimate ” targets .
“ Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with unlimited financial support and weapons will not be able to save him , ” Erdogan said , referring to Russia , Egypt , and the United Arab Emirates .
Writing in Foreign Policy in March , Jalel Harchaoui predicted such an escalation , warning that “ Yet another clash between the two main Libya camps is now brewing , and events in recent weeks suggest that the fighting will be more devastating than at any time before.
” In April , Emadeddin Badi pointed a finger at the UAE , arguing in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Haftar complete impunity on the international stage.
” Argentina default deadline .
Argentina reaches its self-imposed deadline today on a debt deal with its international creditors , having already extended the deadline from May 8 .
Argentina has attempted to negotiate with its lenders over restructuring its $ 65 billion debt , asking creditors to accept a 62 percent “ haircut ” in interest payments .
Writing on Twitter on Saturday , Argentinian President Alberto Fernández said he will look at next steps if creditors fail to accept his terms .
Although today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much more concrete date looms on May 22 when Argentina is due to deliver a $ 500 million interest payment .
IMF issues another growth warning .
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund , Kristalina Georgieva , has warned that the institution ’ s previous forecast on a global economic contraction of 3 percent may have underestimated the extent of the global economic downturn .
“ With no immediate medical solutions , more adverse scenarios might unfortunately materialize for some economies , ” Georgieva said .
Speaking at a virtual event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said uncertainty about the behavior of the coronavirus made economic projections difficult .
Iran asks for U.S. prisoner exchange .
Amid building tension that has boiled over into violence in recent months , Iran has said it is ready for a prisoner exchange with the United States .
“ We have announced that we are ready without any preconditions to exchange all prisoners and we are prepared to discuss this issue but the Americans have not responded yet , ” Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said .
A U.S. official , speaking anonymously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ no offer ” of a prisoner exchange .
If such an exchange can be brokered , it would be the first exchange since late 2019 , when a graduate student , Xiyue Wang , was returned to the United States in exchange for Massoud Soleimani , a medical researcher .
Poland ’ s presidential election .
Now that Poland ’ s previously scheduled election date has passed , the country ’ s electoral commission has given the parliament speaker 14 days to announce a new date for a presidential election .
Speaking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head of the electoral commission , said he expected the election to take place in the next 60 days .
On Wednesday , May 13 , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit Israel , his first trip outside the country since his March 23 visit to Afghanistan and Qatar .
He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and new Deputy Prime Minister Benny Gantz , fresh from their swearing-in ceremonies that day .
Also on May 13 , the European parliament will convene for its monthly plenary session @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EU ’ s next multiannual financial framework , in place from 2020 to 2026 .
The parliament will also debate Hungary ’ s coronavirus legislation which gave Prime Minister Viktor Orban the ability to rule by decree .
Top level soccer returns to Europe next weekend—albeit behind closed doors— as the top-two tiers of German soccer , the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 will pick up where they left off 61 days ago with 11 rounds of matches to go to complete the season .
ESPN outlines the unorthodox preparation players have had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only allowed train in small groups and locker rooms given a set capacity limit .
Should there be any goals next weekend , players won ’ t be allowed celebrate together : However the Bundesliga will allow “ short contact with elbow or foot.
” For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: South Korea sees a spike in coronavirus cases, Libya’s civil war intensifies, and Argentina faces a key debt deadline.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
S. Korea and Germany Show How Difficult It Is to Tame Pandemic
As governments across the globe move to ease lockdowns, countries that have been celebrated for besting the coronavirus are proving how difficult an enemy it is to vanquish.
On Sunday, Germany’s R number (a value used to estimate the ability of the disease to spread from person to person) increased to more than one, meaning the coronavirus could again spread exponentially among the population. The Robert Koch Institute, the government public health agency that produces coronavirus statistics, warned that the R number estimate was “linked to a degree of uncertainty” but would nonetheless “observe the development very closely.”
Chancellor Angela Merkel announced an easing of restrictions last Wednesday, but has said an “emergency brake” would be applied and previous lockdown measures would resume if cases started to rise.
In South Korea, President Moon Jae-in said the country was in “in a prolonged war” as daily coronavirus cases spiked to their highest point in a month, with 34 new cases reported. The mayor of Seoul effectively ordered pubs and nightclubs to be shut after a man in his late 20s infected 24 people in the nightlife district of Itaewon.
China, the original virus epicenter, reported its highest number of daily coronavirus cases since April 28 with 17; five of those cases were traced to Wuhan.
A good problem to have. Of course, although the trend is worrying, these are the kinds of numbers that the worst-hit countries would gladly trade places for. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain—the three countries with the most confirmed coronavirus cases—together reported approximately 26,000 new cases on May 10. The United States made up the vast majority of that figure with over 20,000 new cases reported. The bad news is compounded by the revelation that the White House is now facing its own localized coronavirus outbreak.
How are other countries handling reopening? Writing in Foreign Policy, Amanda Sloat looked at 65 countries battling the coronavirus pandemic and found that a desire for fresh air (and a haircut) was nearly universal.
What We’re Following Today
China refutes U.S. allegations. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Friday amended a visa rule for Chinese journalists entering the United States to work for foreign news outlets in the latest tit-fot-tat battle between the United States and China over the status of journalists in both countries.
Under the new rule, the visas of Chinese journalists will only be valid for 90 days—although they can be renewed for further 90-day periods. In March, China banned U.S. journalists from the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Washington Post from working in mainland China as well as Hong Kong and Macao.
On Saturday night, China’s Foreign Ministry mounted a defense from repeated U.S. claims of a Chinese cover-up surrounding the origins of coronavirus by posting a 30,000 word rebuttal on its website. It begins by quoting a phrase often atttributed to Abraham Lincoln: “As Lincoln said, you can fool some of the people all the time and fool all the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”
Libya conflict escalates. Libya’s civil war intensified over the weekend as the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, bombarded Tripoli with artillery fire. Haftar’s forces have been trying to wrest control of Tripoli away from the internationally backed Government of National Accord (GNA) for the past 13 months. Tripoli’s remaining airport was targeted on Saturday by rockets that destroyed fuel tanks and caused shrapnel to come close to a passenger jet preparing for takeoff.
The UN Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said that Saturday’s airport strike was “one in a series of indiscriminate attacks, most of which are attributable to pro-LNA forces.” UNSMIL added that up to 15 civilians have reportedly been killed in May alone, with a further 50 injured.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan— whose military is cooperating with the GNA—said that Haftar’s attacks on what he deemed Turkish interests in Libya could soon make his forces “legitimate” targets. “Even the efforts of countries that provide him with unlimited financial support and weapons will not be able to save him,” Erdogan said, referring to Russia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.
Writing in Foreign Policy in March, Jalel Harchaoui predicted such an escalation, warning that “Yet another clash between the two main Libya camps is now brewing, and events in recent weeks suggest that the fighting will be more devastating than at any time before.” In April, Emadeddin Badi pointed a finger at the UAE, arguing in FP that “Emirati support effectively affords Haftar complete impunity on the international stage.”
Argentina default deadline. Argentina reaches its self-imposed deadline today on a debt deal with its international creditors, having already extended the deadline from May 8. Argentina has attempted to negotiate with its lenders over restructuring its $65 billion debt, asking creditors to accept a 62 percent “haircut” in interest payments.
Writing on Twitter on Saturday, Argentinian President Alberto Fernández said he will look at next steps if creditors fail to accept his terms. Although today’s deadline is self-imposed, a much more concrete date looms on May 22 when Argentina is due to deliver a $500 million interest payment.
Keep an Eye On
IMF issues another growth warning. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that the institution’s previous forecast on a global economic contraction of 3 percent may have underestimated the extent of the global economic downturn. “With no immediate medical solutions, more adverse scenarios might unfortunately materialize for some economies,” Georgieva said. Speaking at a virtual event hosted by European University Institute, Georgieva said uncertainty about the behavior of the coronavirus made economic projections difficult.
Iran asks for U.S. prisoner exchange. Amid building tension that has boiled over into violence in recent months, Iran has said it is ready for a prisoner exchange with the United States. “We have announced that we are ready without any preconditions to exchange all prisoners and we are prepared to discuss this issue but the Americans have not responded yet,” Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said. A U.S. official, speaking anonymously, said the United States has received “no offer” of a prisoner exchange. If such an exchange can be brokered, it would be the first exchange since late 2019, when a graduate student, Xiyue Wang, was returned to the United States in exchange for Massoud Soleimani, a medical researcher.
Poland’s presidential election. Now that Poland’s previously scheduled election date has passed, the country’s electoral commission has given the parliament speaker 14 days to announce a new date for a presidential election. Speaking to TVN24, Sylwester Marciniak, the head of the electoral commission, said he expected the election to take place in the next 60 days.
The World This Week
On Wednesday, May 13, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit Israel, his first trip outside the country since his March 23 visit to Afghanistan and Qatar. He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and new Deputy Prime Minister Benny Gantz, fresh from their swearing-in ceremonies that day.
Also on May 13, the European parliament will convene for its monthly plenary session. It’s expected to debate the EU’s next multiannual financial framework, in place from 2020 to 2026. The parliament will also debate Hungary’s coronavirus legislation which gave Prime Minister Viktor Orban the ability to rule by decree.
Odds and Ends
Top level soccer returns to Europe next weekend—albeit behind closed doors— as the top-two tiers of German soccer, the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 will pick up where they left off 61 days ago with 11 rounds of matches to go to complete the season. ESPN outlines the unorthodox preparation players have had to get used to, with players only allowed train in small groups and locker rooms given a set capacity limit. Should there be any goals next weekend, players won’t be allowed celebrate together: However the Bundesliga will allow “short contact with elbow or foot.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-11--On Coronavirus, Pakistan’s Government Is Missing in Action

On Coronavirus , Pakistan ’ s Government Is Missing in Action KARACHI—During a televised broadcast on March 22 , Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed his hesitancy in imposing a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic , explaining that such a move would have devastating economic consequences for the poor .
“ Twenty-five percent of Pakistanis are below the poverty line , ” Khan said .
“ Today if I impose a complete lockdown , then my country ’ s rickshaw drivers , pushcart vendors , taxi drivers , small shopkeepers , daily wage earners … all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” In Pakistan , where around 30 percent of the population lives in grave poverty , avoiding catching the coronavirus isn ’ t the only thing on people ’ s minds .
Staving off hunger often comes first .
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic recession the International Monetary Fund predicts will follow it have imperiled the food security of many Pakistanis , and a broader economic collapse and escalating rates of unemployment would only add to the country ’ s poverty .
Pakistan ’ s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how—through the act of charity .
Given that Pakistan is a state whose tenets are rooted in the Islamic faith , many of its citizens believe that the best way to combat this crisis is through the spirit of altruism .
The government has launched its own initiatives , including the Ehsaas Program , which has been providing cash assistance of 12,000 rupees ( approximately $ 75 ) to low-income families .
Within a few weeks , the government managed to disburse 55 billion rupees ( about $ 344 million ) to 4.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through a text-message service .
On April 1 , Khan also set up a COVID-19 relief fund ; the premier urged citizens via Twitter to donate funds to help those made destitute by the lockdown .
Meanwhile , local volunteer organizations and ordinary citizens have been using WhatsApp and various social media platforms to make appeals for donations and food—especially essential grocery items including sugar , oil , flour , lentils , and tea , a list that nowadays also includes sanitizer , masks , and soap .
The Human Development Foundation Pakistan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ organizations based in the capital , Islamabad , has set out to support 5,000 impoverished families , according to the foundation ’ s CEO , Azhar Saleem .
So far , the organization has provided rations to approximately 14,000 people .
Despite their best intentions , community relief efforts and government schemes such as the Ehsaas Programme and the COVID-19 relief fund will have limited results .
Even ordinary citizens have stepped up to the plate , including Omair Shakil , a Pakistani physician and public health expert based in Boston .
Shakil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power of social media , he managed to raise over $ 12,000 within two weeks .
He then proceeded to work with vetted organizations and individuals to distribute cash , ration bags , and personal protective equipment to public and private hospitals in need .
But despite their best intentions , community relief efforts and government schemes such as the Ehsaas Programme and the COVID-19 relief fund will have limited results .
Reports from those working on the ground indicate that most food and medical aid distribution has been limited to areas near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rural areas .
The latter , whose workers make up most of Pakistan ’ s informal sector and are dependent on daily wages , are more likely to be affected by the stringent lockdown measures .
Further , cash assistance programs like Ehsaas can become vectors of disease transmission , because they require in-person interactions .
As Shakil noted , “ The requirement for beneficiaries to collect their allotted monies from cash distribution centers carries the risk of community spread of the very disease that the program is meant to curb.
” Moreover @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistance to those who register via text message , is not particularly user-friendly , given that many rural families do not own smartphones and don ’ t always know how to claim the relevant benefits .
Such programs only cater to people who can read and understand text messages written in Urdu .
In most regions of the country , Urdu is not the first language and Pakistan ’ s low literacy rate of 58 percent means that , without assistance , many non-Urdu readers will be unable to access the benefits of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts can only work if citizens and NGOs have the support of the local administration , ” argued Ahsan J. Pirzada , a lawyer who—by his count—raised over 7 million rupees ( $ 44,000 ) through various online platforms and has been delivering ration packets to marginalized groups in Pakistan , including Christians , the transgender community , and slum-dwellers .
“ The government could at the very least pass an ordinance which makes it easy for community organizations and citizens like me to register and open a bank account where people can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community relief efforts have provided temporary relief to the poor , they may not be a sustainable option given the protracted length of this pandemic and the uncertainty of future vaccine development .
For a nation that struggles with a weak health care infrastructure and still faces preventable deaths from polio and diarrhea , managing the COVID-19 crisis has been a major challenge .
The Khan administration ’ s blasé attitude came to light when Pakistan ’ s minister of health , Zafar Mirza , erroneously declared on Feb. 19 , that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adequately resourced to tackle any outbreak , just as the pandemic was making its way around the world .
At the time of writing , there are over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan with 667 reported deaths .
It ’ s clear that the preservation of national pride and the government ’ s reputation was the greater priority at the time .
The skyrocketing of cases caused by the mishandling of pilgrims returning from Iran in mid-March revealed the complacency of the leadership .
The faulty testing of the pilgrims , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Iran , allowed them to return to their hometowns , where they spread the coronavirus .
Given that Pakistan shares borders with China , Iran , and India—three countries with a high number of reported cases—there was a dire need for effective cross-border cooperation and active health surveillance along the borders .
When the lockdown came , implementation was delayed or piecemeal , exposing the government ’ s lack of swift decision-making .
Even after the application of strict social distancing guidelines , children and young adults—who can be an asymptomatic vector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s streets playing cricket and socializing at roadside shops .
Meanwhile , health care workers are refusing to come to work , condemning the lack of personal protective equipment provided by the government .
Many health care workers at public hospitals are reportedly paying out of pocket to procure protective gear for themselves , hospital cleaners , and security staff .
Without adequate testing and protective equipment , there has been a mass undercounting of cases , which has allowed for a faster spread of infections .
The coronavirus pandemic has also underscored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Islamic establishment .
Unlike other Muslim countries , including Saudi Arabia , Pakistan has not yet imposed a complete ban on mosque sermons and religious gatherings for fear of retaliation from Islamist groups .
Clerics continue to refuse to obey Khan ’ s calls to limit prayer gatherings as thousands of people continue to pack mosques across the country .
Afwan , a painter who asked to only use his first name , attended a crowded Friday sermon in Karachi last week , explained to me the clerical establishment ’ s motives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign from God that the world has sinned .
I don ’ t understand why the government is trying to halt mosque gatherings , when it ’ s clearly the time for all Muslims to come together in larger groups to atone for our sins.
” Confronting such logic—and getting religious leaders to encourage safe behavior among their followers , as clerics in many other countries have done—will not be easy .
But Khan must take the bold step of fully implementing a temporary shutdown of all mosques and other religious gatherings during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ larger outbreak .
Pakistan is currently tackling one of its biggest challenges since independence .
The coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent lockdown measures have devastated the lives of the country ’ s most vulnerable citizens .
Pakistan does not have sufficient resources and funding to tackle the devastation caused by the lockdown .
However , there are ways through which the government can prevent the country from going into a complete state of emergency .
There is an urgent need on the part of the Khan administration , which has so far shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facilitate and support community efforts to ensure that no family is left to go hungry .
More funding must be directed toward procuring protective gear and tests for health care facilities and coronavirus management centers .
Such measures will aid in Pakistan ’ s fight to contain the virus and prevent an economic fallout when lockdown is eventually lifted .
For now , the country is surviving purely on its citizens ’ willingness to give .

KARACHI—During a televised broadcast on March 22, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed his hesitancy in imposing a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, explaining that such a move would have devastating economic consequences for the poor.
KARACHI—During a televised broadcast on March 22, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed his hesitancy in imposing a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic, explaining that such a move would have devastating economic consequences for the poor.
“Twenty-five percent of Pakistanis are below the poverty line,” Khan said. “Today if I impose a complete lockdown, then my country’s rickshaw drivers, pushcart vendors, taxi drivers, small shopkeepers, daily wage earners … all of them will be shut in their homes.”
In Pakistan, where around 30 percent of the population lives in grave poverty, avoiding catching the coronavirus isn’t the only thing on people’s minds. Staving off hunger often comes first.
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic recession the International Monetary Fund predicts will follow it have imperiled the food security of many Pakistanis, and a broader economic collapse and escalating rates of unemployment would only add to the country’s poverty.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
Pakistan’s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle this pandemic the best way they know how—through the act of charity. Given that Pakistan is a state whose tenets are rooted in the Islamic faith, many of its citizens believe that the best way to combat this crisis is through the spirit of altruism.
Pakistan’s citizens are nevertheless coming together to tackle this pandemic the best way they know how—through the act of charity.
The government has launched its own initiatives, including the Ehsaas Program, which has been providing cash assistance of 12,000 rupees (approximately $75) to low-income families. Within a few weeks, the government managed to disburse 55 billion rupees (about $344 million) to 4.6 million families that registered for the program through a text-message service.
On April 1, Khan also set up a COVID-19 relief fund; the premier urged citizens via Twitter to donate funds to help those made destitute by the lockdown.
Meanwhile, local volunteer organizations and ordinary citizens have been using WhatsApp and various social media platforms to make appeals for donations and food—especially essential grocery items including sugar, oil, flour, lentils, and tea, a list that nowadays also includes sanitizer, masks, and soap.
The Human Development Foundation Pakistan, one of the oldest nonprofit development organizations based in the capital, Islamabad, has set out to support 5,000 impoverished families, according to the foundation’s CEO, Azhar Saleem. So far, the organization has provided rations to approximately 14,000 people.
Even ordinary citizens have stepped up to the plate, including Omair Shakil, a Pakistani physician and public health expert based in Boston. Shakil told Foreign Policy that by leveraging the power of social media, he managed to raise over $12,000 within two weeks.
He then proceeded to work with vetted organizations and individuals to distribute cash, ration bags, and personal protective equipment to public and private hospitals in need.
But despite their best intentions, community relief efforts and government schemes such as the Ehsaas Programme and the COVID-19 relief fund will have limited results.
Reports from those working on the ground indicate that most food and medical aid distribution has been limited to areas near major cities, depriving those living in rural areas. The latter, whose workers make up most of Pakistan’s informal sector and are dependent on daily wages, are more likely to be affected by the stringent lockdown measures.
Further, cash assistance programs like Ehsaas can become vectors of disease transmission, because they require in-person interactions. As Shakil noted, “The requirement for beneficiaries to collect their allotted monies from cash distribution centers carries the risk of community spread of the very disease that the program is meant to curb.”
Moreover, Ehsaas, which only provides monetary assistance to those who register via text message, is not particularly user-friendly, given that many rural families do not own smartphones and don’t always know how to claim the relevant benefits. Such programs only cater to people who can read and understand text messages written in Urdu.
In most regions of the country, Urdu is not the first language and Pakistan’s low literacy rate of 58 percent means that, without assistance, many non-Urdu readers will be unable to access the benefits of Ehsaas.
“Overall, community organization efforts can only work if citizens and NGOs have the support of the local administration,” argued Ahsan J. Pirzada, a lawyer who—by his count—raised over 7 million rupees ($44,000) through various online platforms and has been delivering ration packets to marginalized groups in Pakistan, including Christians, the transgender community, and slum-dwellers.
“The government could at the very least pass an ordinance which makes it easy for community organizations and citizens like me to register and open a bank account where people can donate,” Pirzada said.
While community relief efforts have provided temporary relief to the poor, they may not be a sustainable option.
While community relief efforts have provided temporary relief to the poor, they may not be a sustainable option given the protracted length of this pandemic and the uncertainty of future vaccine development.
For a nation that struggles with a weak health care infrastructure and still faces preventable deaths from polio and diarrhea, managing the COVID-19 crisis has been a major challenge.
The Khan administration’s blasé attitude came to light when Pakistan’s minister of health, Zafar Mirza, erroneously declared on Feb. 19, that the nation’s health care facilities were adequately resourced to tackle any outbreak, just as the pandemic was making its way around the world.
At the time of writing, there are over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan with 667 reported deaths. It’s clear that the preservation of national pride and the government’s reputation was the greater priority at the time.
The skyrocketing of cases caused by the mishandling of pilgrims returning from Iran in mid-March revealed the complacency of the leadership. The faulty testing of the pilgrims, who were kept in quarantine near the border with Iran, allowed them to return to their hometowns, where they spread the coronavirus. Given that Pakistan shares borders with China, Iran, and India—three countries with a high number of reported cases—there was a dire need for effective cross-border cooperation and active health surveillance along the borders.
When the lockdown came, implementation was delayed or piecemeal, exposing the government’s lack of swift decision-making. Even after the application of strict social distancing guidelines, children and young adults—who can be an asymptomatic vector of transmission—continue to line the country’s streets playing cricket and socializing at roadside shops.
Meanwhile, health care workers are refusing to come to work, condemning the lack of personal protective equipment provided by the government. Many health care workers at public hospitals are reportedly paying out of pocket to procure protective gear for themselves, hospital cleaners, and security staff. Without adequate testing and protective equipment, there has been a mass undercounting of cases, which has allowed for a faster spread of infections.
The coronavirus pandemic has also underscored the strained relationship between the government and the Islamic establishment. Unlike other Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has not yet imposed a complete ban on mosque sermons and religious gatherings for fear of retaliation from Islamist groups. Clerics continue to refuse to obey Khan’s calls to limit prayer gatherings as thousands of people continue to pack mosques across the country.
Afwan, a painter who asked to only use his first name, attended a crowded Friday sermon in Karachi last week, explained to me the clerical establishment’s motives: “This unprecedented time is a sign from God that the world has sinned. I don’t understand why the government is trying to halt mosque gatherings, when it’s clearly the time for all Muslims to come together in larger groups to atone for our sins.”
Confronting such logic—and getting religious leaders to encourage safe behavior among their followers, as clerics in many other countries have done—will not be easy. But Khan must take the bold step of fully implementing a temporary shutdown of all mosques and other religious gatherings during the month of Ramadan to prevent a larger outbreak.
Pakistan is currently tackling one of its biggest challenges since independence. The coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent lockdown measures have devastated the lives of the country’s most vulnerable citizens. Pakistan does not have sufficient resources and funding to tackle the devastation caused by the lockdown. However, there are ways through which the government can prevent the country from going into a complete state of emergency.
There is an urgent need on the part of the Khan administration, which has so far shown limited involvement with aid programs, to facilitate and support community efforts to ensure that no family is left to go hungry. More funding must be directed toward procuring protective gear and tests for health care facilities and coronavirus management centers. Such measures will aid in Pakistan’s fight to contain the virus and prevent an economic fallout when lockdown is eventually lifted.
For now, the country is surviving purely on its citizens’ willingness to give.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-11--To Stop a U.S.-Iran War, Finlandize Iraq

As the coronavirus pandemic rages around the world and Americans remain divided on reopening the economy , lawmakers in the United States seem united on one issue : an overwhelming bipartisan majority in the House of Representatives agrees that the conventional arms embargo on Iran , due to expire in October , should be renewed .
While it is indisputable that Iran supports terrorism and should have its access to conventional weapons curtailed , U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s administration ’ s so-called maximum-pressure campaign carries a bigger danger : The United States could get caught in another war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By exerting pressure , supporting regime change , and working to cut off the regime ’ s access to resources without providing positive inducements or signals that compliance would be rewarded by the United States , there is a greater chance of Iran lashing out by directly attacking U.S. forces ( such as the retaliation that came in the months after the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani ) or of inadvertent escalation ( such as in April , when Iranian speedboats came within a few yards of U.S. warships in the Persian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Navy should “ shoot down and destroy ” any Iranian ships harassing U.S. vessels ) .
The United States and Iran could agree to treat Iraq as a “ sphere of restraint ” or neutral zone , much like the U.S. and the Soviet governments agreed to treat states such as Finland and Austria during the Cold War .
The United States and Iran could avoid such confrontations , which could easily spiral into war , by agreeing to “ Finlandize ” Iraq .
Iraq would become a neutral state , like Finland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restraint ” that would not serve as an arena of competition for influence , nor would it attempt to dominate others as it did during former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ’ s reign .
It is likely that the Trump administration fears Iran will distribute new weapons to its proxies in Iraq , Syria , and Lebanon and rearm itself while restarting its atomic weapons program .
A conventionally well-armed , nuclear Iran could be unstoppable in its quest to dominate the Middle East .
However , Iran ’ s economy has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even if the embargo is lifted , Iran can not afford tons of new weapons .
Moreover , not only is Iran far away from having a nuclear weapon , but , as demonstrated by its recent space launch , it does not currently possess the capability to attach a nuclear warhead to a ballistic missile , either .
U.S.-Iranian relations have been bad for several years , but tensions began to escalate after Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in May 2018 and inaugurated a new policy known as maximum pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Suleimani in early January 2020 .
This inaugurated a dramatic escalation between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq .
The best way to de-escalate tensions now is to Finlandize Iraq .
Shortly after World War II began , the Soviet Union demanded that Finland cede a large amount of its territory in order to protect Leningrad .
However , the Finns refused and preferred to fight rather than capitulate .
The Soviets invaded Finland in what became known as the Winter War .
The conflict lasted a little more than three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers of casualties .
They also significantly lowered their demands at the peace table in 1940 .
“ Finlandization , ” described as “ active and principled neutrality , ” was later inaugurated in 1948 .
The Finns and the Soviets agreed that Finland would not join any alliance with a power hostile to Moscow , in exchange for the Soviets respecting Finland ’ s autonomy and democracy .
Under this arrangement , Finland avoided becoming a puppet state and the Soviets avoided having a hostile neighbor .
Similarly , the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and France reached a similar arrangement when they agreed to withdraw from Austria in the Austrian State Treaty in 1955 .
Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev remarked at the time , “ Is there any stronger proof necessary to show that the Soviet Union does not want to seize Europe to carry on any sort of war ?
… Who would evacuate troops if he wanted to attack ?
” Shortly after the last Allied troops left Austria in October 1955 , the Austrian Parliament passed a measure declaring the country ’ s neutrality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States and Iran could agree to treat Iraq as a “ sphere of restraint ” or neutral zone , much like the U.S. and the Soviet governments agreed to treat states such as Finland and Austria during the Cold War .
Such arrangements have worked well for those countries , as well as for Switzerland and Sweden .
Scholars have proposed implementing similar agreements in places from Taiwan to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus .
However , it is important to note the differences between some of these situations and present-day Iraq .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ powerful neighbor ( Iran ) with a vested interest in pulling its domestic political strings .
Both states have a more powerful patron that is also interested in its domestic political composition .
Arguably , Iraq lives in a tougher , more complicated neighborhood than Finland did .
In addition to Iran , Iraq faces Turkey and Saudi Arabia , and shares a border with a failed state , Syria .
Iraq ’ s domestic sovereignty , unlike Finland ’ s in the 1940s , is still in development .
Iran supports proxy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within the Popular Mobilization Units ( PMU ) , while the United States stations troops there .
Iran has had an interest in Iraq since at least the 16th century , when the Persian Empire was forced out of Baghdad by the Ottomans .
Under the last shah , Iran supported the ambitions of the Kurds and cultivated ties with leading Shiite dignitaries in order to prevent the emergence of a strong competitor on its border .
After the overthrow of Saddam , Iran took advantage of the resulting chaos to prevent the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Iraq ’ s borders .
Given these dynamics , a Finlandized Iraq would require a number of commitments on both sides .
First , it would require that Iran and the United States commit to the territorial integrity of Iraq .
Iraq would be free to decide whether to grant more or less autonomy to various provinces and regions , but neither the United States nor Iran would support or recognize the independence of portions that would attempt to secede , such as the Kurdistan Regional Government ( KRG ) .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which operates several bases in the KRG under the guise of fighting the pro-independence Kurdistan Workers ’ Party ( PKK ) because it is afraid that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan could lead to a set of falling ethnic dominoes that would result in another uprising by its own Kurdish population .
( Iran also fears that its own Kurdish population could be encouraged to secede if the KRG gained independence . )
If both Iran and the United States refuse to recognize an independent Kurdistan and attach strict conditions to aid to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should mollify Turkey ’ s fears .
After all , Turkey does not need to maintain bases that violate Iraq ’ s sovereignty ; it is capable of putting down a Kurdish attempt at secession from its own borders , given the size of its armed forces .
Second , as was the case in the Austrian State Treaty , the U.S. and Iranian governments would agree to withdraw their forces .
This would include soldiers operating under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as U.S. troops and contractors .
Iraq could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either the United States or Iran .
All foreign bases currently in operation would need to be handed over to Baghdad or dismantled .
Channeling Khrushchev and the Austrian State Treaty , this would serve as a costly signal to both sides that neither is interested in territorial aggression .
Third , the United States and Iran would only provide aid to Iraq that carried the condition that the central government in Baghdad improve its military effectiveness with respect to domestic policing and counterterrorism .
Aid would be cut off should Iraq fail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out between the United States and Iran .
Iran would need to apply pressure on the PMU militias so that they integrate with the rest of Iraq ’ s armed forces .
Nominally , the PMU militias are led by the prime minister , but in fact they are largely independent , with Iran as their primary influencer .
Any aid provided to the KRG would have similar strings attached : closer coordination with the rest of Iraq ’ s armed forces and a greater focus on counterterrorism .
These conditions would reverse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States to escalate their presences in Iraq : that Iraqi forces could not combat the Islamic State on their own .
They would prevent a return to Saddam-era aggression by denying Iraq the ability to conquer its neighbors while ensuring that the Iraqi state can combat terrorists on its own .
Finally , the U.S. refusal to attach conditionality to Iraqi aid made it impossible to prevent former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki from establishing sectarian governments .
In addition , the United States and Iran would seek to deconflict by separating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paths of their land forces , as well as establishing a hotline in the Gulf in order to prevent accidental firefights .
The paradox of the maximum-pressure campaign is that measures designed to keep arms out of the hands of Iran increase the probability the United States will wind up in another war .
A simpler approach would begin by turning Iraq into a neutral zone and respecting each side ’ s security interests .

As the coronavirus pandemic rages around the world and Americans remain divided on reopening the economy, lawmakers in the United States seem united on one issue: an overwhelming bipartisan majority in the House of Representatives agrees that the conventional arms embargo on Iran, due to expire in October, should be renewed.
As the coronavirus pandemic rages around the world and Americans remain divided on reopening the economy, lawmakers in the United States seem united on one issue: an overwhelming bipartisan majority in the House of Representatives agrees that the conventional arms embargo on Iran, due to expire in October, should be renewed.
While it is indisputable that Iran supports terrorism and should have its access to conventional weapons curtailed, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration’s so-called maximum-pressure campaign carries a bigger danger: The United States could get caught in another war of choice in the Middle East.
By exerting pressure, supporting regime change, and working to cut off the regime’s access to resources without providing positive inducements or signals that compliance would be rewarded by the United States, there is a greater chance of Iran lashing out by directly attacking U.S. forces (such as the retaliation that came in the months after the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani) or of inadvertent escalation (such as in April, when Iranian speedboats came within a few yards of U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, and Trump tweeted the U.S. Navy should “shoot down and destroy” any Iranian ships harassing U.S. vessels).
The United States and Iran could agree to treat Iraq as a “sphere of restraint” or neutral zone, much like the U.S. and the Soviet governments agreed to treat states such as Finland and Austria during the Cold War.
The United States and Iran could avoid such confrontations, which could easily spiral into war, by agreeing to “Finlandize” Iraq. Iraq would become a neutral state, like Finland during the Cold War—a “sphere of restraint” that would not serve as an arena of competition for influence, nor would it attempt to dominate others as it did during former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s reign.
It is likely that the Trump administration fears Iran will distribute new weapons to its proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and rearm itself while restarting its atomic weapons program. A conventionally well-armed, nuclear Iran could be unstoppable in its quest to dominate the Middle East. However, Iran’s economy has been weakened by sanctions and low oil prices. Even if the embargo is lifted, Iran cannot afford tons of new weapons. Moreover, not only is Iran far away from having a nuclear weapon, but, as demonstrated by its recent space launch, it does not currently possess the capability to attach a nuclear warhead to a ballistic missile, either.
U.S.-Iranian relations have been bad for several years, but tensions began to escalate after Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in May 2018 and inaugurated a new policy known as maximum pressure. Tensions worsened after the U.S. assassination of Suleimani in early January 2020. This inaugurated a dramatic escalation between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
The best way to de-escalate tensions now is to Finlandize Iraq. Shortly after World War II began, the Soviet Union demanded that Finland cede a large amount of its territory in order to protect Leningrad. However, the Finns refused and preferred to fight rather than capitulate. The Soviets invaded Finland in what became known as the Winter War.
The conflict lasted a little more than three months, and the Soviets incurred large numbers of casualties. They also significantly lowered their demands at the peace table in 1940. “Finlandization,” described as “active and principled neutrality,” was later inaugurated in 1948. The Finns and the Soviets agreed that Finland would not join any alliance with a power hostile to Moscow, in exchange for the Soviets respecting Finland’s autonomy and democracy. Under this arrangement, Finland avoided becoming a puppet state and the Soviets avoided having a hostile neighbor.
Similarly, the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, and France reached a similar arrangement when they agreed to withdraw from Austria in the Austrian State Treaty in 1955. Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev remarked at the time, “Is there any stronger proof necessary to show that the Soviet Union does not want to seize Europe to carry on any sort of war? … Who would evacuate troops if he wanted to attack?” Shortly after the last Allied troops left Austria in October 1955, the Austrian Parliament passed a measure declaring the country’s neutrality.
In other words, the United States and Iran could agree to treat Iraq as a “sphere of restraint” or neutral zone, much like the U.S. and the Soviet governments agreed to treat states such as Finland and Austria during the Cold War. Such arrangements have worked well for those countries, as well as for Switzerland and Sweden. Scholars have proposed implementing similar agreements in places from Taiwan to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
However, it is important to note the differences between some of these situations and present-day Iraq.
Like Finland, Iraq has a more powerful neighbor (Iran) with a vested interest in pulling its domestic political strings. Both states have a more powerful patron that is also interested in its domestic political composition. Arguably, Iraq lives in a tougher, more complicated neighborhood than Finland did. In addition to Iran, Iraq faces Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and shares a border with a failed state, Syria. Iraq’s domestic sovereignty, unlike Finland’s in the 1940s, is still in development.
Iran supports proxy militias in Iraq, such as groups within the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), while the United States stations troops there. Iran has had an interest in Iraq since at least the 16th century, when the Persian Empire was forced out of Baghdad by the Ottomans. Under the last shah, Iran supported the ambitions of the Kurds and cultivated ties with leading Shiite dignitaries in order to prevent the emergence of a strong competitor on its border. After the overthrow of Saddam, Iran took advantage of the resulting chaos to prevent the emergence of yet another security threat emerging from Iraq’s borders.
Given these dynamics, a Finlandized Iraq would require a number of commitments on both sides.
First, it would require that Iran and the United States commit to the territorial integrity of Iraq. Iraq would be free to decide whether to grant more or less autonomy to various provinces and regions, but neither the United States nor Iran would support or recognize the independence of portions that would attempt to secede, such as the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). This would have the effect of reassuring Turkey, which operates several bases in the KRG under the guise of fighting the pro-independence Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) because it is afraid that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan could lead to a set of falling ethnic dominoes that would result in another uprising by its own Kurdish population. (Iran also fears that its own Kurdish population could be encouraged to secede if the KRG gained independence.)
If both Iran and the United States refuse to recognize an independent Kurdistan and attach strict conditions to aid to Iraq and the KRG specifically, it should mollify Turkey’s fears. After all, Turkey does not need to maintain bases that violate Iraq’s sovereignty; it is capable of putting down a Kurdish attempt at secession from its own borders, given the size of its armed forces.
Second, as was the case in the Austrian State Treaty, the U.S. and Iranian governments would agree to withdraw their forces. This would include soldiers operating under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as U.S. troops and contractors. Iraq could not host any foreign bases hostile to either the United States or Iran. All foreign bases currently in operation would need to be handed over to Baghdad or dismantled. Channeling Khrushchev and the Austrian State Treaty, this would serve as a costly signal to both sides that neither is interested in territorial aggression.
Third, the United States and Iran would only provide aid to Iraq that carried the condition that the central government in Baghdad improve its military effectiveness with respect to domestic policing and counterterrorism. Aid would be cut off should Iraq fail to meet a set of benchmarks ironed out between the United States and Iran. Iran would need to apply pressure on the PMU militias so that they integrate with the rest of Iraq’s armed forces. Nominally, the PMU militias are led by the prime minister, but in fact they are largely independent, with Iran as their primary influencer. Any aid provided to the KRG would have similar strings attached: closer coordination with the rest of Iraq’s armed forces and a greater focus on counterterrorism.
These conditions would reverse the situation that compelled Iran and the United States to escalate their presences in Iraq: that Iraqi forces could not combat the Islamic State on their own. They would prevent a return to Saddam-era aggression by denying Iraq the ability to conquer its neighbors while ensuring that the Iraqi state can combat terrorists on its own. Finally, the U.S. refusal to attach conditionality to Iraqi aid made it impossible to prevent former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki from establishing sectarian governments.
In addition, the United States and Iran would seek to deconflict by separating the paths of their navies and coordinating the paths of their land forces, as well as establishing a hotline in the Gulf in order to prevent accidental firefights.
The paradox of the maximum-pressure campaign is that measures designed to keep arms out of the hands of Iran increase the probability the United States will wind up in another war. A simpler approach would begin by turning Iraq into a neutral zone and respecting each side’s security interests.