foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Is Ethiopia Headed for Civil War?

Is Ethiopia Headed for Civil War?

ADDIS ABABA—In a major escalation of a bitter feud with his rivals in the northern region of Tigray , Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military action after what he said was an attack on a federal army camp in the early hours of Nov. 4 .
The announcement , which came after weeks of escalating tensions , may mark a dangerous tipping point for a country whose stability has been repeatedly tested since Abiy came to power in 2018 .
The sharp deterioration did not come as surprise to close observers of Ethiopia ’ s once-promising transition to democracy—a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Abiy , who also won a Nobel peace prize for his role in ending a 20-year cold war with neighboring Eritrea .
A showdown has been brewing between Abiy Ahmed and Tigray ’ s rulers , the Tigrayan People ’ s Liberation Front ( TPLF ) , who dominated Ethiopia ’ s ruling coalition from 1991 .
For months , many observers had sensed a showdown brewing between him and Tigray ’ s rulers , the Tigrayan People ’ s Liberation Front ( TPLF ) , who dominated the country ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous military dictatorship—until 2018 .
On Oct. 30 , the International Crisis Group warned the standoff risked triggering a “ damaging conflict that may even rip the Ethiopian state asunder.
” The roots of enmity run deep .
The TPLF refused to join Abiy ’ s new ruling party , the Prosperity Party , when it was formed late last year ; it views the new party as an attempt to dismantle the constitution .
And earlier this year the Tigrayan leaders accused him of laying the groundwork for dictatorship by postponing elections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ September , in defiance of the federal government , the Tigray region held its own elections , prompting parliament to vote to sever all ties with the regional leadership last month .
The TPLF also claims Abiy ’ s government has overseen the persecution of ethnic Tigrayans , who make up about 6 percent of the population , and a selective purging of Tigrayan officials and security service leaders in government .
As a condition for dialogue , it demands Abiy step down as prime minister and allow for the establishment of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for its part , claims TPLF leaders are masterminding Ethiopia ’ s myriad troubles—which include political assassinations , protests , armed rebellions , and massacres of minorities—in order to derail the political transition and reclaim the power they ’ ve lost by force .
Both sides have been building up their military capacity—Tigray , as one of Ethiopia ’ s 10 semi-autonomous ethnically based regional states , has its own police and militia—and trading increasingly bellicose rhetoric .
The federal government recently halted its monthly grant to Tigray , the latest in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ designed to put pressure on its leaders .
It was not immediately clear who really fired the first gunshots .
According to the federal government , the TPLF attempted to “ loot ” equipment from the federal military ’ s Northern Command , which is stationed in Tigray near the border with Eritrea and is said to comprise most of Ethiopia ’ s armed personnel and mechanized divisions .
The TPLF has long believed this command ’ s officer corps—many of whom , insiders say , are Tigrayan—will not obey Abiy ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would not accept any changes to the regiment ’ s leadership or structure , and then it refused to allow new commanders appointed by Abiy to take up their postings .
It is plausible , as Abiy claims , that the TPLF tried to seize assets belonging to the command .
But it is not certain whether this took place before or after federal troops were deployed .
A former Tigrayan general in Mekelle , the region ’ s capital , told me last week that taking such equipment “ out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tensions boil over .
A politburo meeting this weekend resulted in “ historic decisions ” taken to bolster the region ’ s preparedness , said Getachew Reda , a senior TPLF official , on Twitter .
On Sunday the regional president , Debretsion Gebremichael , declared that “ if war is imminent , we are prepared not just to resist but to win.
” But it is also apparent that there were significant movements of federal troops in the days preceding Nov. 4 .
According to a United Nations diplomat , units had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ethiopia , including the areas of Hararghe and Somali in the southeast , and from the Welega zone in western Oromia region .
“ [ The federal government ] will have difficulty convincing anyone worth their salt that this wasn ’ t pre-planned , ” the source said .
With internet and phone networks cut throughout Tigray , details about ongoing confrontations between federal troops and Tigrayan paramilitaries are patchy and hard to verify .
According to a source in Mekelle , who spoke to me via a satellite connection , gunfire in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the early hours of the morning .
The fighting was confined to the area around the airport .
Several sources in Addis Ababa said the federal government deployed commandos in military aircraft to Mekelle with the goal of securing military assets and , possibly , removing the TPLF leadership .
This does not seem to have been successful , and the Tigray ’ s special police are reported to have taken control of the federal military base .
The city was quiet for the rest of the day .
In his statement , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal forces in the town of Dansha in western Tigray near its border with the Amhara region .
Since the morning of Nov. 4 there have been reports of fighting in the west , but these are particularly difficult to corroborate .
The number of casualties is unknown .
Many in Addis Ababa hope Abiy ’ s military operation will be limited to a surgical strike against the TPLF in order to assert the federal government ’ s authority in Tigray .
But the conflict could easily spread across the wider region .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of Tigray , and members of the ruling party there—key allies of the prime minister—had been clamoring for him to take firm action against the TPLF .
On Nov. 4 , its president called on Amhara military veterans to take up arms in the fight against it .
More troubling still is the possibility of intervention by Eritrean troops on the side of the Ethiopian federal army—until recently their arch-enemy .
Eritrea ’ s president , Isaias Afwerki , nurses an old grudge against the TPLF—dating back to before the Ethiopian-Eritrean war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the two made peace in 2018 .
Few observers doubt Isaias might be tempted to intervene in some way should he spy an opening .
“ We are not under the illusion that the Eritreans would sit idly by , ” the TPLF ’ s Getachew told me last week .
Even without a spillover into neighboring countries , a limited operation to dislodge the TPLF will not be straightforward .
The party controls every government office in the region down to the very lowest level .
Its security forces are led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And neither it nor the federal government looks in any mood to compromise .
“ When I think about a war between Abiy and the TPLF , you know what comes to mind ?
Iraq and Afghanistan , ” said a well-connected analyst in Addis Ababa .
In other words , he continued : “ A quagmire .
”

ADDIS ABABA—In a major escalation of a bitter feud with his rivals in the northern region of Tigray, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military action after what he said was an attack on a federal army camp in the early hours of Nov. 4 . The announcement, which came after weeks of escalating tensions, may mark a dangerous tipping point for a country whose stability has been repeatedly tested since Abiy came to power in 2018.
ADDIS ABABA—In a major escalation of a bitter feud with his rivals in the northern region of Tigray, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military action after what he said was an attack on a federal army camp in the early hours of Nov. 4. The announcement, which came after weeks of escalating tensions, may mark a dangerous tipping point for a country whose stability has been repeatedly tested since Abiy came to power in 2018.
The sharp deterioration did not come as surprise to close observers of Ethiopia’s once-promising transition to democracy—a shift that has largely been ushered in by Abiy, who also won a Nobel peace prize for his role in ending a 20-year cold war with neighboring Eritrea.
A showdown has been brewing between Abiy Ahmed and Tigray’s rulers, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition from 1991.
For months, many observers had sensed a showdown brewing between him and Tigray’s rulers, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who dominated the country’s ruling coalition from 1991—when they overthrew the previous military dictatorship—until 2018. On Oct. 30, the International Crisis Group warned the standoff risked triggering a “damaging conflict that may even rip the Ethiopian state asunder.”
The roots of enmity run deep. The TPLF refused to join Abiy’s new ruling party, the Prosperity Party, when it was formed late last year; it views the new party as an attempt to dismantle the constitution. And earlier this year the Tigrayan leaders accused him of laying the groundwork for dictatorship by postponing elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, in defiance of the federal government, the Tigray region held its own elections, prompting parliament to vote to sever all ties with the regional leadership last month.
The TPLF also claims Abiy’s government has overseen the persecution of ethnic Tigrayans, who make up about 6 percent of the population, and a selective purging of Tigrayan officials and security service leaders in government. As a condition for dialogue, it demands Abiy step down as prime minister and allow for the establishment of a caretaker government.
The Prosperity Party, for its part, claims TPLF leaders are masterminding Ethiopia’s myriad troubles—which include political assassinations, protests, armed rebellions, and massacres of minorities—in order to derail the political transition and reclaim the power they’ve lost by force.
Both sides have been building up their military capacity—Tigray, as one of Ethiopia’s 10 semi-autonomous ethnically based regional states, has its own police and militia—and trading increasingly bellicose rhetoric. The federal government recently halted its monthly grant to Tigray, the latest in a volley of punitive fiscal and administrative measures designed to put pressure on its leaders.
It was not immediately clear who really fired the first gunshots. According to the federal government, the TPLF attempted to “loot” equipment from the federal military’s Northern Command, which is stationed in Tigray near the border with Eritrea and is said to comprise most of Ethiopia’s armed personnel and mechanized divisions. The TPLF has long believed this command’s officer corps—many of whom, insiders say, are Tigrayan—will not obey Abiy’s orders. Last month, it said it would not accept any changes to the regiment’s leadership or structure, and then it refused to allow new commanders appointed by Abiy to take up their postings.
It is plausible, as Abiy claims, that the TPLF tried to seize assets belonging to the command. But it is not certain whether this took place before or after federal troops were deployed. A former Tigrayan general in Mekelle, the region’s capital, told me last week that taking such equipment “out of the equation” might be necessary should tensions boil over. A politburo meeting this weekend resulted in “historic decisions” taken to bolster the region’s preparedness, said Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official, on Twitter. On Sunday the regional president, Debretsion Gebremichael, declared that “if war is imminent, we are prepared not just to resist but to win.”
But it is also apparent that there were significant movements of federal troops in the days preceding Nov. 4. According to a United Nations diplomat, units had been withdrawn from several parts of southern Ethiopia, including the areas of Hararghe and Somali in the southeast, and from the Welega zone in western Oromia region. “[The federal government] will have difficulty convincing anyone worth their salt that this wasn’t pre-planned,” the source said.
With internet and phone networks cut throughout Tigray, details about ongoing confrontations between federal troops and Tigrayan paramilitaries are patchy and hard to verify. According to a source in Mekelle, who spoke to me via a satellite connection, gunfire in the city lasted around one hour in the early hours of the morning.
The fighting was confined to the area around the airport. Several sources in Addis Ababa said the federal government deployed commandos in military aircraft to Mekelle with the goal of securing military assets and, possibly, removing the TPLF leadership. This does not seem to have been successful, and the Tigray’s special police are reported to have taken control of the federal military base. The city was quiet for the rest of the day.
In his statement, Abiy also claimed the TPLF had attacked federal forces in the town of Dansha in western Tigray near its border with the Amhara region. Since the morning of Nov. 4 there have been reports of fighting in the west, but these are particularly difficult to corroborate. The number of casualties is unknown.
Many in Addis Ababa hope Abiy’s military operation will be limited to a surgical strike against the TPLF in order to assert the federal government’s authority in Tigray. But the conflict could easily spread across the wider region. Neighboring Amhara state has territorial claims over parts of Tigray, and members of the ruling party there—key allies of the prime minister—had been clamoring for him to take firm action against the TPLF. On Nov. 4, its president called on Amhara military veterans to take up arms in the fight against it.
More troubling still is the possibility of intervention by Eritrean troops on the side of the Ethiopian federal army—until recently their arch-enemy. Eritrea’s president, Isaias Afwerki, nurses an old grudge against the TPLF—dating back to before the Ethiopian-Eritrean war of 1998-2000—and has drawn close to Abiy since the two made peace in 2018. Few observers doubt Isaias might be tempted to intervene in some way should he spy an opening. “We are not under the illusion that the Eritreans would sit idly by,” the TPLF’s Getachew told me last week.
Even without a spillover into neighboring countries, a limited operation to dislodge the TPLF will not be straightforward. The party controls every government office in the region down to the very lowest level. Its security forces are led by battle-hardened veterans of earlier wars. And neither it nor the federal government looks in any mood to compromise.
“When I think about a war between Abiy and the TPLF, you know what comes to mind? Iraq and Afghanistan,” said a well-connected analyst in Addis Ababa. In other words, he continued: “A quagmire.”


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--What South Africa Can Teach the United States About Repairing a Divided Society

What South Africa Can Teach the United States About Repairing a Divided Society This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
There is no reason why the U.S. presidential election should be an existential battle in which the losers get obliterated .
It is possible to work through deep ideological differences , but it requires hard work .
Take a comparative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Africa .
Ours was a deeply divided society given the twin histories of colonialism and apartheid .
Since 1994 , we have worked hard to build democratic institutions—and a political culture—that can help us live with and work through our bitter divisions .
We remain a divided society , and our democratic institutions are under enormous pressure , but we are never quite at risk of our relatively young democracy imploding , even though there have been—and continue to be—very daunting threats to the political system , especially predatory political elites stealing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interests .
What keeps South African democracy intact is an almost instinctive appreciation that our deep historical differences must be accepted as part of our enduring reality .
We can not wish divisions away by watching YouTube clips of Nelson Mandela on repeat .
You must learn to accept deep divisions as part of your political DNA .
That is the project U.S. citizens need to sign up for now .
Losing an election just means you lost the argument .
And if you have a model of democracy that values core norms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then you must practice becoming a good democratic loser .
That means accepting that your arguments did not win this year .
Equally , if you win , it is important to be magnanimous and recognize that the contestation of political ideas is not a perfect science .
Showing some intellectual humility , rather than condescending to your political opponents just because your candidate becomes president , is essential .
And this is where U.S. citizens must challenge themselves .
Despite the prevalent but false belief that the United States is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to learn from other democracies about how to engage in political contestation in ways that are politically mature .
All of its citizens can yet make America great by humbly accepting they have yet to develop good democratic habits that can ensure that bitter divisions do not threaten the foundations of American society .
If the United States reckons with this truth , then it will be ready to practice new ways of engaging political opponents , rather than seeing political contests as a zero-sum game .
If a still young democracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ divisions at bay , then so can a much older democracy like the United States .
But success will require that Americans abandon the toxic habit of seeing their political opponents as wartime enemies .

There is no reason why the U.S. presidential election should be an existential battle in which the losers get obliterated. It is possible to work through deep ideological differences, but it requires hard work. Take a comparative case study from my own country, South Africa.
There is no reason why the U.S. presidential election should be an existential battle in which the losers get obliterated. It is possible to work through deep ideological differences, but it requires hard work. Take a comparative case study from my own country, South Africa.
Ours was a deeply divided society given the twin histories of colonialism and apartheid. Since 1994, we have worked hard to build democratic institutions—and a political culture—that can help us live with and work through our bitter divisions. We remain a divided society, and our democratic institutions are under enormous pressure, but we are never quite at risk of our relatively young democracy imploding, even though there have been—and continue to be—very daunting threats to the political system, especially predatory political elites stealing from the public in cahoots with private interests.
What keeps South African democracy intact is an almost instinctive appreciation that our deep historical differences must be accepted as part of our enduring reality. We cannot wish divisions away by watching YouTube clips of Nelson Mandela on repeat. You must learn to accept deep divisions as part of your political DNA.
That is the project U.S. citizens need to sign up for now. Losing an election just means you lost the argument. And if you have a model of democracy that values core norms of democratic theory like deliberation and participation, then you must practice becoming a good democratic loser.
That means accepting that your arguments did not win this year. Equally, if you win, it is important to be magnanimous and recognize that the contestation of political ideas is not a perfect science. Showing some intellectual humility, rather than condescending to your political opponents just because your candidate becomes president, is essential.
And this is where U.S. citizens must challenge themselves. Despite the prevalent but false belief that the United States is the greatest nation in the world, Americans need to learn from other democracies about how to engage in political contestation in ways that are politically mature.
All of its citizens can yet make America great by humbly accepting they have yet to develop good democratic habits that can ensure that bitter divisions do not threaten the foundations of American society. If the United States reckons with this truth, then it will be ready to practice new ways of engaging political opponents, rather than seeing political contests as a zero-sum game.
If a still young democracy like South Africa can keep deep bitter divisions at bay, then so can a much older democracy like the United States. But success will require that Americans abandon the toxic habit of seeing their political opponents as wartime enemies.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Mohammed bin Salman Should Be Very Worried About Biden

Mohammed bin Salman Should Be Very Worried About Biden This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As the U.S. election goes down to the wire , Saudi Arabia ’ s crown prince must be pacing nervously in his gilded palace .
Mohammed bin Salman bet big on Donald Trump ’ s reelection when he gave his tacit approval to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mohammed bin Zayed , to sign a peace deal with the Arab world ’ s supposed archenemy Israel .
But if Joe Biden wins , the Saudi position , which came at the cost of offending Muslim sentiment globally , makes him look more isolated .
At the start of Trump ’ s presidency , Mohammed bin Salman wooed Trump ’ s son-in-law and adviser , Jared Kushner , and even referred to him—and by implication the U.S. president—as being “ in his pocket.
” The two 30-something novices on the world stage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In strategic terms , that meant close coordination on Iran and the region and U.S. backing for Mohammed bin Salman ’ s rise to power .
The crown prince in particular was emboldened by Trump ’ s support and took an ever more bullish position on Tehran , which Riyadh sees as the main threat to its unofficial position as leader of the Muslim world since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 .
In May 2018 , Trump walked out of the nuclear deal that lifted sanctions on Iran .
That deal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into Tehran ’ s coffers from oil sales , made it possible for the country to double down on its support for militias across the region , such as Lebanon ’ s Hezbollah .
So the reimposition of sanctions suited both Israel and the House of Saud .
Biden , however , has promised to reengage with Iran and reinstate the nuclear deal in some form .
If that happens , and sanctions are lifted again , Iran would , in the Saudi view , have the funds to expand its arc of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Lebanon , and as far as Yemen .
It is not clear if and how Biden intends to continue containing Iran ’ s ambitions in the absence of sanctions .
That is a major cause for Saudi concern .
But more generally Biden described Saudi Arabia as a pariah and promised to treat it as such .
He has also supported the findings of the CIA that the brutal killing of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was indeed ordered by the Saudi crown prince .
Whether that makes a difference to policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the big foreign-policy questions arising from the election .

As the U.S. election goes down to the wire, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince must be pacing nervously in his gilded palace.
As the U.S. election goes down to the wire, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince must be pacing nervously in his gilded palace.
Mohammed bin Salman bet big on Donald Trump’s reelection when he gave his tacit approval to the decision by his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, to sign a peace deal with the Arab world’s supposed archenemy Israel. But if Joe Biden wins, the Saudi position, which came at the cost of offending Muslim sentiment globally, makes him look more isolated.
At the start of Trump’s presidency, Mohammed bin Salman wooed Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, and even referred to him—and by implication the U.S. president—as being “in his pocket.” The two 30-something novices on the world stage played statesmen and forged a close relationship. In strategic terms, that meant close coordination on Iran and the region and U.S. backing for Mohammed bin Salman’s rise to power. The crown prince in particular was emboldened by Trump’s support and took an ever more bullish position on Tehran, which Riyadh sees as the main threat to its unofficial position as leader of the Muslim world since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
In May 2018, Trump walked out of the nuclear deal that lifted sanctions on Iran. That deal, and the money that began to flow into Tehran’s coffers from oil sales, made it possible for the country to double down on its support for militias across the region, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah. So the reimposition of sanctions suited both Israel and the House of Saud.
Biden, however, has promised to reengage with Iran and reinstate the nuclear deal in some form. If that happens, and sanctions are lifted again, Iran would, in the Saudi view, have the funds to expand its arc of influence from Tehran through Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and as far as Yemen.
It is not clear if and how Biden intends to continue containing Iran’s ambitions in the absence of sanctions. That is a major cause for Saudi concern.
But more generally Biden described Saudi Arabia as a pariah and promised to treat it as such. He has also supported the findings of the CIA that the brutal killing of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was indeed ordered by the Saudi crown prince. Whether that makes a difference to policy toward Saudi Arabia in practice is one of the big foreign-policy questions arising from the election.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Europe’s Far-Right Is Still Hoping for a Trump Miracle

Europe ’ s Far-Right Is Still Hoping for a Trump Miracle This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
The trans-Atlantic relationship has been declared dead many times , but Europeans ’ behavior this week would suggest otherwise .
While the Chinese indicated they had other preoccupations , Europeans have had the U.S. elections foremost in their minds .
Glued to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every move in this nail-biting election .
Rightly so : The result greatly matters for European politics .
While most Europeans want Joe Biden to become president , Europe ’ s radical right is putting its cards on Donald Trump .
On Wednesday morning , Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa congratulated Trump right after the president had declared himself a winner—despite the fact that millions of mail-in votes , which could tilt the balance , had yet to be counted .
And a far-right candidate in the Dutch elections next spring tweeted that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is clear what Jansa and others are waiting for .
Four years ago , Trump ’ s election gave Europe ’ s far-right a tremendous boost .
And they want one again .
Together with the Brexit referendum , which happened months earlier , Trump ’ s victory totally changed the political mood in Europe .
Then-UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage called it a “ global revolution.
” Frauke Petry , who led the far-right Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) at the time , said his win changed “ the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This was the time when insulting on European Twitter really took off .
By the end of 2016 , centrist parties in Europe were pushed so much in the offensive that many pundits predicted the far-right candidate Norbert Hofer to win the Austrian presidential election in December 2016 and Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen the Dutch and French elections , respectively , in the spring of 2017 .
None of this happened .
Alexander Van der Bellen became president in Austria .
Emmanuel Macron easily beat Le Pen .
Wilders didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predicted .
These three losses for the far-right lifted the mood for many in Europe .
Citizens marched through cities with European flags .
Young activists set up new centrist parties .
The Greens took off .
Trump ’ s methods didn ’ t seem to work in Europe , either .
Steve Bannon ’ s ultra-conservative training academy for upcoming politicians in Italy flopped .
A think tank in Brussels he was associated with went nowhere .
By the time European elections were held , in mid-2019 , Brexit-related political chaos had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Euroskeptic parties stopped calling for more exits .
They started talking about “ changing Europe ” instead .
Thanks to this change , their results were reasonably good .
But the breakthrough that some had foreseen it was definitely not .
Then came the coronavirus .
Devastating Europe , it rallied citizens solidly behind the flag .
Even those critical of their governments mostly abandoned populist slogans and put their trust in the government .
They had a concrete problem and wanted the competent authorities to solve it .
Many governing centrist parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of COVID-19 : The German Christian Democratic Union reached 40 percent approval .
The governing Dutch People ’ s Party for Freedom and Democracy and the ruling Danish Social Democrats shot up in the polls , too .
The radical right suffered .
The AfD sunk below 10 percent .
Voters also punished the Lega in Italy , until it stopped criticizing the government .
But the second wave has now arrived .
The tide is turning again .
Farage has set up a party to lead the political fight against the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The AfD , the Dutch Party for Freedom , the Brothers of Italy , and others are all trying to surf on a growing wave of discontent , too .
This may force many governments into the defensive once more .
This is why , at this very moment , it matters greatly for Europe who wins the U.S. elections .
If Biden becomes president , the European radical right has nothing to boast about .
If anything , centrists all over Europe will breathe a big sigh of relief .
But if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far-right populists will feel part of his victory—just as they did four years ago .
Actually , it will give them a boost they haven ’ t had since November 2016 .

The trans-Atlantic relationship has been declared dead many times, but Europeans’ behavior this week would suggest otherwise. While the Chinese indicated they had other preoccupations, Europeans have had the U.S. elections foremost in their minds. Glued to their screens, they have meticulously followed every move in this nail-biting election. Rightly so: The result greatly matters for European politics.
The trans-Atlantic relationship has been declared dead many times, but Europeans’ behavior this week would suggest otherwise. While the Chinese indicated they had other preoccupations, Europeans have had the U.S. elections foremost in their minds. Glued to their screens, they have meticulously followed every move in this nail-biting election. Rightly so: The result greatly matters for European politics.
While most Europeans want Joe Biden to become president, Europe’s radical right is putting its cards on Donald Trump. On Wednesday morning, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa congratulated Trump right after the president had declared himself a winner—despite the fact that millions of mail-in votes, which could tilt the balance, had yet to be counted. And a far-right candidate in the Dutch elections next spring tweeted that Trump was the “moral winner.”
It is clear what Jansa and others are waiting for. Four years ago, Trump’s election gave Europe’s far-right a tremendous boost. And they want one again.
Together with the Brexit referendum, which happened months earlier, Trump’s victory totally changed the political mood in Europe. Then-UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage called it a “global revolution.” Frauke Petry, who led the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at the time, said his win changed “the USA, Europe and the world.” This was the time when insulting on European Twitter really took off. By the end of 2016, centrist parties in Europe were pushed so much in the offensive that many pundits predicted the far-right candidate Norbert Hofer to win the Austrian presidential election in December 2016 and Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen the Dutch and French elections, respectively, in the spring of 2017.
None of this happened. Alexander Van der Bellen became president in Austria. Emmanuel Macron easily beat Le Pen. Wilders didn’t get the high scores some had predicted. These three losses for the far-right lifted the mood for many in Europe. Citizens marched through cities with European flags. Young activists set up new centrist parties. The Greens took off.
Trump’s methods didn’t seem to work in Europe, either. Steve Bannon’s ultra-conservative training academy for upcoming politicians in Italy flopped. A think tank in Brussels he was associated with went nowhere.
By the time European elections were held, in mid-2019, Brexit-related political chaos had erupted in the United Kingdom. Most Euroskeptic parties stopped calling for more exits. They started talking about “changing Europe” instead. Thanks to this change, their results were reasonably good. But the breakthrough that some had foreseen it was definitely not.
Then came the coronavirus. Devastating Europe, it rallied citizens solidly behind the flag. Even those critical of their governments mostly abandoned populist slogans and put their trust in the government. They had a concrete problem and wanted the competent authorities to solve it. Many governing centrist parties did extremely well during the first wave of COVID-19: The German Christian Democratic Union reached 40 percent approval. The governing Dutch People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy and the ruling Danish Social Democrats shot up in the polls, too. The radical right suffered. The AfD sunk below 10 percent. Voters also punished the Lega in Italy, until it stopped criticizing the government.
But the second wave has now arrived. The tide is turning again. Farage has set up a party to lead the political fight against the government’s deeply unpopular coronavirus measures. The AfD, the Dutch Party for Freedom, the Brothers of Italy, and others are all trying to surf on a growing wave of discontent, too. This may force many governments into the defensive once more.
This is why, at this very moment, it matters greatly for Europe who wins the U.S. elections. If Biden becomes president, the European radical right has nothing to boast about. If anything, centrists all over Europe will breathe a big sigh of relief. But if Trump returns to the White House, far-right populists will feel part of his victory—just as they did four years ago. Actually, it will give them a boost they haven’t had since November 2016.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--America Has Elected Either Death or More Death

America Has Elected Either Death or More Death This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Regardless of whether Democratic nominee Joe Biden manages to secure election to the presidency—and survive the subsequent legal assaults from the Republican Party—his administration would almost certainly be checked by a Republican Senate .
That means the COVID-19 pandemic will rage on , unfettered by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a few states where governors are determined to adhere to their public health guidance .
Still , even that would be preferable to President Donald Trump winning reelection .
He has vowed to opt for a do-nothing approach to COVID-19 , biding time until an effective vaccine is found and put to use .
Access to the vaccine might well require health insurance , offering the possibility of a deliberate class-based survival rate in the American epidemic .
Whether the Trump policy is labeled “ herd immunity ” or not doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to allowing the virus to spread , on the assumption that fewer than 2 percent of the infected will die of COVID-19 , and most of them will come from racial minorities and retired senior populations .
There will be an unstated notion of “ expendable ” populations , dying amid rising overall societal immunity .
If Biden is sworn into the presidency on Jan. 20 , 2021 , he will greet an epidemic that may have caused well over 400,000 American deaths by that time and that will continue to rage across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ battle with the Senate on every pandemic effort : working with the World Health Organization ( WHO ) , joining the COVAXX global access commitment for vaccines and drugs , guaranteeing affordable access to COVID-19 medicines and coronavirus vaccines for all Americans and people in middle-income and poor countries .
There will be no effective global strategy for COVID-19 control save building a bridge to a vaccine , and then fighting to immunize as much of the world as possible .
If Trump is sworn in , even those standards will not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entire United Nations system and all multilateral COVID-19 control efforts , making the “ America first ” motto the guiding mantra for every drug , treatment , vaccine , and innovation that shows promise against the coronavirus .
The nationalistic stratagem will inspire similar action worldwide , threatening the already fragile alliance built by WHO .
In the end , the biggest winners are Fox News and the SARS-CoV-2 virus .
Ratings for Fox now outstrip any other TV news operation , led by their most right-wing commentators .
And the virus spawned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One of COVID-19 ’ s victims was actually elected to the North Dakota state legislature on Tuesday , despite having died of a disease he , in agreement with Trump , claimed was no big deal .
That vote , more than Biden ’ s election and ineffectual governance , could mark the most fitting end to a political era utterly subsumed by cynicism and fantasy .

Regardless of whether Democratic nominee Joe Biden manages to secure election to the presidency—and survive the subsequent legal assaults from the Republican Party—his administration would almost certainly be checked by a Republican Senate. That means the COVID-19 pandemic will rage on, unfettered by any robust federal action and only slowed in a few states where governors are determined to adhere to their public health guidance.
Regardless of whether Democratic nominee Joe Biden manages to secure election to the presidency—and survive the subsequent legal assaults from the Republican Party—his administration would almost certainly be checked by a Republican Senate. That means the COVID-19 pandemic will rage on, unfettered by any robust federal action and only slowed in a few states where governors are determined to adhere to their public health guidance.
Still, even that would be preferable to President Donald Trump winning reelection. He has vowed to opt for a do-nothing approach to COVID-19, biding time until an effective vaccine is found and put to use. Access to the vaccine might well require health insurance, offering the possibility of a deliberate class-based survival rate in the American epidemic. Whether the Trump policy is labeled “herd immunity” or not doesn’t matter: It will boil down to allowing the virus to spread, on the assumption that fewer than 2 percent of the infected will die of COVID-19, and most of them will come from racial minorities and retired senior populations. There will be an unstated notion of “expendable” populations, dying amid rising overall societal immunity.
If Biden is sworn into the presidency on Jan. 20, 2021, he will greet an epidemic that may have caused well over 400,000 American deaths by that time and that will continue to rage across all 50 states. He will do battle with the Senate on every pandemic effort: working with the World Health Organization (WHO), joining the COVAXX global access commitment for vaccines and drugs, guaranteeing affordable access to COVID-19 medicines and coronavirus vaccines for all Americans and people in middle-income and poor countries. There will be no effective global strategy for COVID-19 control save building a bridge to a vaccine, and then fighting to immunize as much of the world as possible.
If Trump is sworn in, even those standards will not be met. He will scoff at the entire United Nations system and all multilateral COVID-19 control efforts, making the “America first” motto the guiding mantra for every drug, treatment, vaccine, and innovation that shows promise against the coronavirus. The nationalistic stratagem will inspire similar action worldwide, threatening the already fragile alliance built by WHO.
In the end, the biggest winners are Fox News and the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Ratings for Fox now outstrip any other TV news operation, led by their most right-wing commentators. And the virus spawned 91,000 new American cases on Election Day. One of COVID-19’s victims was actually elected to the North Dakota state legislature on Tuesday, despite having died of a disease he, in agreement with Trump, claimed was no big deal. That vote, more than Biden’s election and ineffectual governance, could mark the most fitting end to a political era utterly subsumed by cynicism and fantasy.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Asia’s Realists Shouldn’t Fear a Biden Presidency

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As votes continue to be counted , a narrow victory for U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden looks increasingly likely .
That outcome would likely be broadly welcomed around Asia—and all the more so the longer leaders in the region let the result settle in .
Many Asian strategists have had their doubts about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Japan and India , that are most anxious about the rise of China .
In many ways , Asia ’ s archrealists there had come to admire Trump ’ s pugilism .
Seen from their perspective , a Biden presidency risks a return to mushy , softer tactics toward China .
“ Trump understood power , albeit instinctively , ” as the Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan wrote in an Election Day essay that was typically critical of former President Barack Obama ’ s record in the region .
After the Obama presidency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much to restore the credibility of American power.
” But the more Asia ’ s leaders look , the more they will find much to recommend a Biden presidency .
Instinctive multilateralists in capitals such as Canberra or Tokyo can look forward to a period in which the United States engages them constructively on a range of common concerns , from pandemic recovery to climate change .
Those nations with formal alliances with the United States , such as South Korea , can expect more reliable friendship .
Meanwhile , leaders in Southeast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump , in nations from Malaysia to Myanmar , can at least expect Biden to turn up to more of the many meetings that mark out the region ’ s diplomacy .
And it would surely be reassuring that there would no longer be much risk of the United States suddenly striking some zany surprise deal with China that the region disliked , or indeed simply retreating into outright isolationism .
Even the region ’ s major powers—China and India—would surely see advantage in the return of a more stabilizing U.S. president , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distracted by tasks at home and thus less likely to have time or energy to spare on the other side of the world .
After Trump , the United States will not be able to resume the dominant role it played in the region only four years ago , let alone a decade back .
But that is hardly a problem when viewed from New Delhi , and especially from Beijing .
The United States is divided and will remain so .
But Asia ’ s leadership is nothing if not pragmatic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be far from overwhelming .
But as the dust settles , it will become clear that it could offer a little bit of something for everyone .

As votes continue to be counted, a narrow victory for U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden looks increasingly likely. That outcome would likely be broadly welcomed around Asia—and all the more so the longer leaders in the region let the result settle in.
As votes continue to be counted, a narrow victory for U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden looks increasingly likely. That outcome would likely be broadly welcomed around Asia—and all the more so the longer leaders in the region let the result settle in.
Many Asian strategists have had their doubts about Biden, especially in those countries, including Japan and India, that are most anxious about the rise of China. In many ways, Asia’s archrealists there had come to admire Trump’s pugilism. Seen from their perspective, a Biden presidency risks a return to mushy, softer tactics toward China. “Trump understood power, albeit instinctively,” as the Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan wrote in an Election Day essay that was typically critical of former President Barack Obama’s record in the region. After the Obama presidency, Kausikan argued, Trump “did much to restore the credibility of American power.”
But the more Asia’s leaders look, the more they will find much to recommend a Biden presidency. Instinctive multilateralists in capitals such as Canberra or Tokyo can look forward to a period in which the United States engages them constructively on a range of common concerns, from pandemic recovery to climate change. Those nations with formal alliances with the United States, such as South Korea, can expect more reliable friendship.
Meanwhile, leaders in Southeast Asia who have often felt neglected under Trump, in nations from Malaysia to Myanmar, can at least expect Biden to turn up to more of the many meetings that mark out the region’s diplomacy. And it would surely be reassuring that there would no longer be much risk of the United States suddenly striking some zany surprise deal with China that the region disliked, or indeed simply retreating into outright isolationism.
Even the region’s major powers—China and India—would surely see advantage in the return of a more stabilizing U.S. president, and especially one who would be largely distracted by tasks at home and thus less likely to have time or energy to spare on the other side of the world. After Trump, the United States will not be able to resume the dominant role it played in the region only four years ago, let alone a decade back. But that is hardly a problem when viewed from New Delhi, and especially from Beijing.
The United States is divided and will remain so. But Asia’s leadership is nothing if not pragmatic. If Biden wins, his victory will be far from overwhelming. But as the dust settles, it will become clear that it could offer a little bit of something for everyone.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Seoul Breathes a Sigh of Relief as Trump Loss in Sight

Seoul Breathes a Sigh of Relief as Trump Loss in Sight This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
With the end of U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s administration in sight , the overall sentiment in South Korea is relief .
Under Trump , the U.S.-South Korean alliance came under an unprecedented level of strain .
Trump demanded a renegotiation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well as an extortionate fivefold increase to South Korea ’ s cost contribution for stationing U.S. troops in the country .
Many South Koreans sincerely wondered whether the alliance would survive another Trump term .
The return of normal diplomacy under the steady hand of former Vice President Joe Biden would be a welcome change .
Some corners of Seoul ’ s policymaking community , however , remain skeptical of the likely Biden administration .
Despite Trump ’ s unorthodox approach , the thought goes , Trump at least treated the Korean Peninsula @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different method with North Korea .
Although Trump ’ s photo-ops with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un did not create any substantive results , his diplomatic efforts were preferable to the “ strategic patience ” maintained under the administration of former President Barack Obama , which , in practice , amounted to doing nothing while Pyongyang built up its nuclear capacity .
The Biden campaign appears to be aware of this skepticism .
In an interview with South Korean media , Biden ’ s advisor Brian McKeon said , “ Joe Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world is different now four years later because the North Korean nuclear program has moved on.
” McKeon also left open the possibility of Biden holding a meeting with Kim .
Last week , Biden took the unprecedented step of contributing an op-ed directly to a Korean media outlet , in which he signaled his alignment with South Korean President Moon Jae-in ’ s agenda of inter-Korean peace by pledging “ principled diplomacy … toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula.
” These words are a good start to rebuild @ @ @ @ @ @ @ follows through with deeds , even better .

With the end of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in sight, the overall sentiment in South Korea is relief. Under Trump, the U.S.-South Korean alliance came under an unprecedented level of strain. Trump demanded a renegotiation of U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as well as an extortionate fivefold increase to South Korea's cost contribution for stationing U.S. troops in the country. Many South Koreans sincerely wondered whether the alliance would survive another Trump term. The return of normal diplomacy under the steady hand of former Vice President Joe Biden would be a welcome change.
With the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration in sight, the overall sentiment in South Korea is relief. Under Trump, the U.S.-South Korean alliance came under an unprecedented level of strain. Trump demanded a renegotiation of U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as well as an extortionate fivefold increase to South Korea’s cost contribution for stationing U.S. troops in the country. Many South Koreans sincerely wondered whether the alliance would survive another Trump term. The return of normal diplomacy under the steady hand of former Vice President Joe Biden would be a welcome change.
Some corners of Seoul’s policymaking community, however, remain skeptical of the likely Biden administration. Despite Trump’s unorthodox approach, the thought goes, Trump at least treated the Korean Peninsula as a major priority and tried a different method with North Korea. Although Trump’s photo-ops with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un did not create any substantive results, his diplomatic efforts were preferable to the “strategic patience” maintained under the administration of former President Barack Obama, which, in practice, amounted to doing nothing while Pyongyang built up its nuclear capacity.
The Biden campaign appears to be aware of this skepticism. In an interview with South Korean media, Biden’s advisor Brian McKeon said, “Joe Biden is not President Obama, and the world is different now four years later because the North Korean nuclear program has moved on.” McKeon also left open the possibility of Biden holding a meeting with Kim. Last week, Biden took the unprecedented step of contributing an op-ed directly to a Korean media outlet, in which he signaled his alignment with South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s agenda of inter-Korean peace by pledging “principled diplomacy … toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula.” These words are a good start to rebuild the alliance. If a Biden administration follows through with deeds, even better.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--As Biden Inches Ahead, Trump Lays the Groundwork for a Challenge

As Biden Inches Ahead , Trump Lays the Groundwork for a Challenge This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As former Vice President Joe Biden pulled ahead on Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. presidential election , winning the key battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan , President Donald Trump ’ s campaign filed a series of lawsuits setting the stage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and weeks to come .
In Michigan , the campaign filed a lawsuit to halt the tallying of mail-in ballots , claiming members of the Trump campaign had not had sufficient access to observe the count .
In the state ’ s largest city , Detroit , Republican vote challengers gathered outside of a convention center demanding to be let into the room where the vote count was taking place .
Police were called in to push back the crowds clamoring to get in .
In Wisconsin , the Trump campaign said it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was officially declared to be the winner .
Biden flipped the state , with 49.6 percent of the vote to Trump ’ s 48.9 percent as of this writing .
Candidates are entitled to request a recount if the margin of victory is less than 1 percent .
While recounts can lead to a readjustment in the vote tally , they rarely lead to a change in the overall results , the Wall Street Journal reported .
In Pennsylvania , which carries 20 Electoral College votes , the campaign is pursuing a multipronged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ halt the vote count and asking the Supreme Court to join a case filed by the Pennsylvania Republican Party challenging a rule that allows votes to be counted up to three days after the election—so long as the postmark indicates they were mailed by Election Day .
The campaign has also mounted a legal challenge over voter identification laws in the state .
At a press conference held at the Philadelphia airport on Wednesday afternoon , the president ’ s son Eric Trump claimed , without evidence , that Democrats were “ trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The campaign has also filed a suit in Georgia , asking a judge to ensure that proper procedures were followed in the handling of absentee ballots .
Sen. Mitch McConnell on Wednesday defended the president ’ s threat to challenge the results in court , saying : “ In a close election you can anticipate in some of these states you ’ re going to end up in court , ” he said , describing it as “ the American way.
” International election observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impropriety in the vote count .
“ Baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies , notably by the incumbent president , including on election night , harm public trust in democratic institutions , ” said German lawmaker Michael Georg Link , who led the delegation .

As former Vice President Joe Biden pulled ahead on Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. presidential election, winning the key battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan, President Donald Trump’s campaign filed a series of lawsuits setting the stage for a bitter showdown in the days and weeks to come.
As former Vice President Joe Biden pulled ahead on Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. presidential election, winning the key battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan, President Donald Trump’s campaign filed a series of lawsuits setting the stage for a bitter showdown in the days and weeks to come.
In Michigan, the campaign filed a lawsuit to halt the tallying of mail-in ballots, claiming members of the Trump campaign had not had sufficient access to observe the count. In the state’s largest city, Detroit, Republican vote challengers gathered outside of a convention center demanding to be let into the room where the vote count was taking place. Police were called in to push back the crowds clamoring to get in.
In Wisconsin, the Trump campaign said it would seek a recount even before Biden was officially declared to be the winner. Biden flipped the state, with 49.6 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.9 percent as of this writing. Candidates are entitled to request a recount if the margin of victory is less than 1 percent. While recounts can lead to a readjustment in the vote tally, they rarely lead to a change in the overall results, the Wall Street Journal reported.
In Pennsylvania, which carries 20 Electoral College votes, the campaign is pursuing a multipronged legal strategy. It is suing to halt the vote count and asking the Supreme Court to join a case filed by the Pennsylvania Republican Party challenging a rule that allows votes to be counted up to three days after the election—so long as the postmark indicates they were mailed by Election Day. The campaign has also mounted a legal challenge over voter identification laws in the state. At a press conference held at the Philadelphia airport on Wednesday afternoon, the president’s son Eric Trump claimed, without evidence, that Democrats were “trying to cheat” in the state.
The campaign has also filed a suit in Georgia, asking a judge to ensure that proper procedures were followed in the handling of absentee ballots.
Sen. Mitch McConnell on Wednesday defended the president’s threat to challenge the results in court, saying: “In a close election you can anticipate in some of these states you’re going to end up in court,” he said, describing it as “the American way.”
International election observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe criticized Trump’s allegations of impropriety in the vote count. “Baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies, notably by the incumbent president, including on election night, harm public trust in democratic institutions,” said German lawmaker Michael Georg Link, who led the delegation.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Biden Edges Toward Narrow Victory

Biden Edges Toward Narrow Victory

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Democratic challenger Joe Biden edged closer Wednesday to amassing the necessary 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States—winning back two key Midwestern states that his party lost in 2016 , Wisconsin and Michigan , in late vote counts .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instead sponsoring legal challenges to vote-counting in several battleground states .
And it was clear , based on exit polls , that the nation remains even more bitterly polarized than pundits thought , posing titanic challenges for a Biden presidency .
Voters were sharply divided based on race , ethnicity , and education , perhaps even more so than in 2016 .
Reflecting those divisions , a record number of Americans are believed to have voted in the presidential election , but the partisan divide is fraught with rage and even threats of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement late Wednesday afternoon , did not declare victory but said , “ I ’ m confident that we ’ ll emerge victorious , ” and that “ when it ’ s finished , God willing , ” he ’ ll be only the fourth challenger in the last century to unseat an elected incumbent president .
The former vice president—who if he ’ s inaugurated Jan. 20 will be , at 78 , the oldest president to be sworn in—also alluded to the difficulties ahead , facing a possibly still Republican-led Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a partisan institution , ” Biden said , alluding to Trump ’ s tumultuous , highly divisive tenure , which made him the only president in the modern polling era never to have reached 50 percent approval at any point during his tenure .
“ We have to stop treating our opponents as enemies , ” Biden said .
But that ’ s exactly the effort the Trump campaign has already launched , filing suit in Philadelphia alleging improper monitoring of ballots that Trump ’ s lawyer Rudy Giuliani called “ totally illegitimate.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ president ’ s son Eric Trump said , “ The Democrats know the only way they can win this election is to cheat in Pennsylvania.
” Many thousands of votes remain uncounted in Pennsylvania , but even as Giuliani was speaking , Fox News joined CNN in calling Michigan for Biden , taking him up to as many as 264 electoral votes , according to the Fox count .
Biden would then need only Nevada , a state where he is leading , to put him over the top , even without winning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remained uncertain Wednesday night .
To leave FP ’ s live election blog and read the rest of this article , click here .

Democratic challenger Joe Biden edged closer Wednesday to amassing the necessary 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States—winning back two key Midwestern states that his party lost in 2016, Wisconsin and Michigan, in late vote counts.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden edged closer Wednesday to amassing the necessary 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States—winning back two key Midwestern states that his party lost in 2016, Wisconsin and Michigan, in late vote counts.
But the incumbent Trump has refused to concede, instead sponsoring legal challenges to vote-counting in several battleground states. And it was clear, based on exit polls, that the nation remains even more bitterly polarized than pundits thought, posing titanic challenges for a Biden presidency. Voters were sharply divided based on race, ethnicity, and education, perhaps even more so than in 2016. Reflecting those divisions, a record number of Americans are believed to have voted in the presidential election, but the partisan divide is fraught with rage and even threats of violence.
Biden himself, in a statement late Wednesday afternoon, did not declare victory but said, “I’m confident that we’ll emerge victorious,” and that “when it’s finished, God willing,” he’ll be only the fourth challenger in the last century to unseat an elected incumbent president. The former vice president—who if he’s inaugurated Jan. 20 will be, at 78, the oldest president to be sworn in—also alluded to the difficulties ahead, facing a possibly still Republican-led Senate.
“The presidency itself is not a partisan institution,” Biden said, alluding to Trump’s tumultuous, highly divisive tenure, which made him the only president in the modern polling era never to have reached 50 percent approval at any point during his tenure. “We have to stop treating our opponents as enemies,” Biden said.
But that’s exactly the effort the Trump campaign has already launched, filing suit in Philadelphia alleging improper monitoring of ballots that Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani called “totally illegitimate.” At a news conference, the president’s son Eric Trump said, “The Democrats know the only way they can win this election is to cheat in Pennsylvania.”
Many thousands of votes remain uncounted in Pennsylvania, but even as Giuliani was speaking, Fox News joined CNN in calling Michigan for Biden, taking him up to as many as 264 electoral votes, according to the Fox count. Biden would then need only Nevada, a state where he is leading, to put him over the top, even without winning Pennsylvania. But the final vote counts remained uncertain Wednesday night.
To leave FP’s live election blog and read the rest of this article, click here.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Even if Biden Wins, It’s Trump’s America Now

Even if Biden Wins , It ’ s Trump ’ s America Now This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Whoever ends up winning the U.S. election—an answer we may get tonight , or not for weeks if some state results get bogged down in litigation—one of the most important takeaways from the race is that it was so close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seemed to predict , it ’ s come down to a nail-biter .
The big question now is what these results mean for the country .
Pundits have tried to explain away President Donald Trump ’ s show of strength by pointing to lockdown fatigue or voters ’ appreciation for his perceived success on the economy—at least until the pandemic came along and cratered it .
But these rationalizations don ’ t tell the whole story .
Most important , they don ’ t account for the fact that , whoever ultimately wins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all U.S. voters endorsed a white-nationalist serial liar who has spectacularly botched the most serious health crisis in a century .
They also knowingly ignored , or willingly embraced , Trump ’ s flagrant cruelty and sexism , his lack of curiosity or knowledge about the government and the world , his disdain for traditional U.S. values such as fair play and the rule of law , and his eagerness to tear down the institutions of governance at home and abroad—institutions that , while flawed , have provided much peace and prosperity over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some Republicans voted for Trump because they didn ’ t know much about him , or because they hoped that the responsibilities of the office would transform him into a statesman .
No one can make that argument today .
We all now know exactly who Trump is .
When you factor in the facts that Trump has won more votes this time than in 2016 , that he improved his standing among Latino and Black voters , and that the Republican Party may well hold the Senate , you ’ re left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fluke .
Whoever wins this one , we ’ re all living in Trump ’ s America now .
Why do I say that ?
For starters , Trump and his party ’ s show of strength means that win or lose , Trump isn ’ t going away and the GOP won ’ t abandon him after all .
Before the election , the end of Trumpism seemed like a sure thing .
More and more Republicans were arguing , quietly , that the party needed reform and that four more years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even stalwart supporters such as Sen. John Cornyn were starting to edge away from the president .
Now that Trump , and those supporters , have done so well , it ’ s hard to imagine many Republicans giving up on Trump or Trumpism anytime soon .
With his party and close to half the public behind him , an empowered Trump—whether as president , opposition leader , or freelance tweeter and media star—will continue to draw huge levels of attention and support , which he ’ ll use to hector and undermine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , counterfactual , us-versus-the-experts-and-everybody-else message that he has for the past four years .
Republican “ Never Trumpers ” —former GOP officials dedicated to process , competent governance , the importance of institutions , and at least some basic form of national unity—will remain marginalized or will leave the party altogether .
The results will be dire .
Should the GOP win the White House , or lose it but hold the Senate , the policy paralysis of the past four years will continue—or even worsen .
And things may not be much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even presidents who control Congress rarely get more than one or two big things done before their first midterm election , when they often lose legislative support .
It ’ s hard to imagine that a President Biden , should he earn that title , will get even that far unless he manages to eke out a Senate victory ( which , as of this writing , seems unlikely ) .
That ’ s a recipe for big trouble ahead .
While Biden may seek to change the tone in Washington , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency showed that despite Biden ’ s lifelong dedication to bipartisanship , so long as Republicans remain the party of no , the chances of achieving it are close to zero .
Under a divided government , we ’ re likely to see more inaction on huge problems such as the pandemic ( though Biden could make some improvements using his executive authority ) and the economy ( where he can ’ t do much without Congress ) .
Should Biden fail to pass major pandemic relief and other government spending , markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Without coordinated action by all branches of the U.S. government , the pandemic will get much worse .
Thus no matter who wins the White House , Trump ’ s America—a country that has now spurned its best chance to resoundingly repudiate him—will mean more self-perpetuating dysfunction .
Rage at the failure of government to help , or Republicans ’ rage at the government ’ s attempts to help ( through restrictions meant to limit the spread of the virus ) will only intensify the country ’ s already vicious polarization , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and possibly leading to violence .
Biden ’ s goal of healing the nation ’ s divisions and governing in a way that brings everyone together seems like a very tall order now .
Obama ’ s attempts to do the same only fueled Republicans ’ obstreperousness and drove a large share of the public into the dangerous fantasy land of birtherism and other conspiracy theories ( some of which ultimately morphed into QAnon ) .
Now that Trump ’ s approach , for all its ugliness , has received a dramatic embrace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s hard to imagine a President Biden making things better enough to make a difference .
And it ’ s impossible to imagine a President Trump even trying .

After days of seesawing vote counts and gut-churning uncertainty, the answer is finally in—sort of. Joe Biden has won enough electoral votes to make him America’s next president.
After days of seesawing vote counts and gut-churning uncertainty, the answer is finally in—sort of. Joe Biden has won enough electoral votes to make him America’s next president.
Chaotic as this week has been—with its Mad Max-style rolling caravans, major polling failures, and multiple unsubstantiated claims of victory from President Donald Trump—it would be a mistake to let all the bedlam and the legal battles likely to come obscure one of the most important takeaways from the race: just how close Trump got. Far from the landslide many experts predicted, the vote was a tight one.
Which raises the question of what the results actually mean for the country, beyond who becomes its next president. Pundits have tried to explain away Trump’s unexpected strong finish by pointing to lockdown fatigue or voters’ appreciation for his perceived success on the economy—at least until the pandemic cratered it.
But these rationalizations don’t tell the whole story. Most important, they don’t account for the fact that, after four years of scandal, corruption, and failure after failure, nearly half of all U.S. voters still endorsed an authoritarian, white nationalist serial liar who has spectacularly botched the most serious health crisis in a century. They also knowingly ignored, or willingly embraced, Trump’s cruelty, racism, and sexism; his lack of curiosity or knowledge about the government and the world; his disdain for traditional U.S. values such as fair play, rule of law, and freedom of the press; and his eagerness to tear down the institutions of governance at home and abroad—institutions that, while flawed, have provided so much peace and prosperity over the years. Back in 2016, some Republicans voted for Trump because they didn’t know much about him or because they hoped that the responsibilities of the office would transform him into a statesman.
No one can make that argument today. We all now know exactly who Trump is.
When you factor in the facts that Trump has now won some 7 million more votes than he did in 2016, that he improved his standing among Latino and Black voters, and that the Republican Party may well hold the Senate, you’re left with one conclusion: 2016 was no fluke. Biden may have won the election, but we’re all living in Trump’s America now.
Why do I say that? For starters, Trump and the Republican Party’s show of strength means that despite his defeat, Trump isn’t going away and Republicans won’t reject him. Before the election, Trump’s stranglehold on the party seemed to be slipping fast. More and more Republicans were arguing, quietly, that their party needed reform and that four more years of Trump would doom them at the ballots. Even stalwart supporters such as Sen. John Cornyn were starting to edge away from the president. Now that Trump’s supporters have done so well—especially those, like Sen. Lindsey Graham, who glued themselves to their leader’s side—it’s hard to imagine many Republicans giving up on Trump or Trumpism anytime soon.
With his party and a large chunk of the public behind him, an empowered Trump—as de facto opposition leader, freelance tweeter, talk show star, or media baron—will continue to draw huge levels of attention and support, which he’ll use to hector and undermine Democrats, publicly shame Republicans into fighting Biden on everything, and to push the same peevish, counterfactual, us-versus-the-experts-and-everybody-else message that he has for the past four years. Thursday night’s speech, with its baseless claims of voter fraud and endless lies, shows what tone Trump will continue to set. As Brad Parscale, the president’s first campaign manager in this election, told the New York Times, “It isn’t like his Twitter account or his ability to control a news cycle will stop.”
Meanwhile, the “Never Trumpers”—former Republican officials dedicated to process, competent governance, the importance of institutions, and at least some basic form of national unity and who are desperate to reform the party—will remain marginalized or will leave the party altogether.
The results for the country will be dire. In the likely event that Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, the policy paralysis of the past four years will continue. Even presidents who control Congress rarely get more than one or two big things done before their first midterm election, when they often lose legislative support. It’s hard to imagine that a President Biden, lacking full congressional support, will get even that far—no matter how good a dealmaker he proves to be.
That’s a recipe for big trouble ahead. While Biden may seek to change the tone in Washington, the years of Barack Obama’s presidency showed that despite Biden’s lifelong dedication to bipartisanship and his still cozy relationships in the Senate, so long as Republicans remain the party of no, the chances of achieving compromise are close to zero. Under a divided government, we’re likely to see more inaction on huge problems such as the pandemic (though Biden could make some improvements using his executive authority) and the economy (where he can’t do much without Congress). Should Biden fail to pass major pandemic relief and other government spending, markets will flounder, and financial instability will increase. Without coordinated action by all branches of the U.S. government, the pandemic will get much worse.
Thus Trump’s America—a country that has just spurned its best chance to resoundingly repudiate him—will mean more self-perpetuating dysfunction. Rage at the failure of the government to help, or Republicans’ rage at the government’s attempts to help, will only intensify the country’s already vicious polarization, further reducing the chances for cooperation and possibly leading to violence.
Biden’s goal of healing the nation’s divisions and governing in a way that brings everyone together seems like a very tall order now. Obama’s attempts to do the same only fueled Republicans’ obstreperousness and drove a large share of the public into the dangerous fantasy land of birtherism and other conspiracy theories (some of which ultimately morphed into QAnon). Now that Trump’s approach, for all its futility and ugliness, has been embraced by a large portion of the country, it’s hard to imagine a President Biden managing to do heal the country.
But it was impossible to imagine a President Trump even trying.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Biden Edges Toward Narrow Victory in a Deeply Polarized America

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Democratic challenger Joe Biden edged closer Wednesday to amassing the necessary 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States—winning back two key Midwestern states that his party lost in 2016 , Wisconsin and Michigan , in late vote counts .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instead sponsoring legal challenges to vote-counting in several battleground states .
And it was clear , based on exit polls , that the nation remains even more bitterly polarized than pundits thought , posing titanic challenges for a Biden presidency .
Voters were sharply divided based on race , ethnicity , and education , perhaps even more so than in 2016 .
Reflecting those divisions , a record number of Americans are believed to have voted in the presidential election , but the partisan divide is fraught with rage and even threats of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement late Wednesday afternoon , did not declare victory but said , “ I ’ m confident that we ’ ll emerge victorious , ” and that “ when it ’ s finished , God willing , ” he ’ ll be only the fourth challenger in the last century to unseat an elected incumbent president .
The former vice president—who if he ’ s inaugurated Jan. 20 will be , at 78 , the oldest president to be sworn in—also alluded to the difficulties ahead , facing a possibly still Republican-led Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a partisan institution , ” Biden said , harking back to Trump ’ s tumultuous , highly divisive tenure , which made him the only president in the modern polling era never to have reached 50 percent approval at any point during his tenure .
“ We have to stop treating our opponents as enemies , ” Biden said .
But that ’ s exactly the effort the Trump campaign has already launched , filing suit in Philadelphia alleging improper monitoring of ballots that Trump ’ s lawyer Rudy Giuliani called “ totally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president ’ s son Eric Trump said , “ The Democrats know the only way they can win this election is to cheat in Pennsylvania.
” Many thousands of votes remain uncounted in Pennsylvania , but even as Giuliani was speaking , Fox News joined CNN in calling Michigan for Biden , taking him up to as many as 264 electoral votes , according to the Fox count , which also called disputed Arizona for the former vice president .
Biden would then need only Nevada , a state where he is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top , even without winning Pennsylvania .
But the final vote counts remained uncertain Wednesday night .
Earlier that morning , Trump prematurely declared victory in Michigan and other states , saying he ’ d won the election .
“ Frankly , we did win this election , ” Trump said in remarks from the East Room of the White House , making an unfounded claim that the results are a “ fraud.
” “ Quite possibly we ’ ll do a national lawsuit and really expose the corruption of the Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day the Trump campaign challenged the counting of votes in several other states .
Biden ’ s plea to “ lower the temperature ” is therefore likely to go largely unheeded , especially if Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—who retained his seat—keeps control of the Senate as well .
( A half-dozen contests remained uncalled . )
Though Biden has plainly won the popular vote , as Hillary Clinton had in 2016—with the count as of early Wednesday evening at 50.3 percent to 48.1 percent—the nation remains almost evenly divided in electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ placed some hope in his 47-year career of working with Republicans .
“ As senator and vice president he repeatedly demonstrated an ability to reach across the aisle to get things done , both in domestic and foreign affairs , ” said Michael Haltzel , a former senior Senate aide to Biden .
“ In the latter category Biden was the leader of the successful bipartisan Senate efforts to enlarge NATO and to put an end to the wars in the Balkans .
President-elect Biden ’ s administration will reestablish close cooperation with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adversaries with calmness and resolve.
” Other Biden allies have stressed the same points over the years .
“ He can sit down in foreign policy or other issues and find a common interest and drive the ideas forward , ” his former Senate chief of staff , Ted Kaufman , who filled Biden ’ s senatorial seat after the latter became vice president , told me in an interview in 2010 .
“ Look at what he did with Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond [ in passing the chemical weapons treaty and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1990s ] .
I mean , Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond !
You don ’ t get more conservative than that .
” Biden is also a deeply experienced internationalist committed to U.S. alliances and has pledged to act swiftly to restore U.S. prestige by reversing Trump ’ s worst failures on COVID-19 , the economy , global stability , and climate change .
A Republican-led Senate will almost certainly fight him every step of the way , and U.S. allies will remain nervous and unsettled .
“ He understands governance better than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senator and defense secretary Chuck Hagel told me in an interview in 2010 , saying it was he who advised Barack Obama to pick Biden as his running mate in 2008 .
“ In particular , he understands Congress.
” But that means a President Biden will also know he ’ ll have to compromise—and he ’ s already indicated he ’ s willing to do so in an America that is still dominated by Trumpian politics .
Indeed , it ’ s not hard to imagine Trump running against him again in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will find it difficult to simply resurrect the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal he once advocated , in part because he must accommodate the powerful progressive wing in his own party that , like many Republicans , favors more protectionism .
Biden has already said he would not simply rejoin the pact but would seek to renegotiate it to include “ strong rules of origin ” requiring more manufacturing in the United States , and before entering any new international trade deal he would focus on a Trump-like $ 400 billion “ Buy America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Support for the World Trade Organization , which was fathered by Democrats under President Bill Clinton , is fast dwindling as well in the face of a now-bipartisan consensus that China has unfairly abused its rules to rob middle-class Americans of their jobs .
And Biden , like Trump , has been seeking to pare down America ’ s role overseas for years ; as Obama ’ s vice president , he argued against a U.S. buildup in Afghanistan and negotiated an accelerated withdrawal from Iraq .
Even so , the economy and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Foreign Policy contributor Adam Tooze , an economic historian , wrote Wednesday : “ The most likely result is divided control of the White House and Congress ( with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate ) , paralysis in fiscal policy , and continued reliance on the Fed as the main backstop not just of the U.S. economy but of the entire global economy .
”

Democratic challenger Joe Biden edged closer Wednesday to amassing the necessary 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States—winning back two key Midwestern states that his party lost in 2016, Wisconsin and Michigan, in late vote counts.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden edged closer Wednesday to amassing the necessary 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump and become the 46th president of the United States—winning back two key Midwestern states that his party lost in 2016, Wisconsin and Michigan, in late vote counts.
But the incumbent Trump has refused to concede, instead sponsoring legal challenges to vote-counting in several battleground states. And it was clear, based on exit polls, that the nation remains even more bitterly polarized than pundits thought, posing titanic challenges for a Biden presidency. Voters were sharply divided based on race, ethnicity, and education, perhaps even more so than in 2016. Reflecting those divisions, a record number of Americans are believed to have voted in the presidential election, but the partisan divide is fraught with rage and even threats of violence.
Biden himself, in a statement late Wednesday afternoon, did not declare victory but said, “I’m confident that we’ll emerge victorious,” and that “when it’s finished, God willing,” he’ll be only the fourth challenger in the last century to unseat an elected incumbent president. The former vice president—who if he’s inaugurated Jan. 20 will be, at 78, the oldest president to be sworn in—also alluded to the difficulties ahead, facing a possibly still Republican-led Senate.
“The presidency itself is not a partisan institution,” Biden said, harking back to Trump’s tumultuous, highly divisive tenure, which made him the only president in the modern polling era never to have reached 50 percent approval at any point during his tenure. “We have to stop treating our opponents as enemies,” Biden said.
But that’s exactly the effort the Trump campaign has already launched, filing suit in Philadelphia alleging improper monitoring of ballots that Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani called “totally illegitimate.” At a news conference, the president’s son Eric Trump said, “The Democrats know the only way they can win this election is to cheat in Pennsylvania.”
Many thousands of votes remain uncounted in Pennsylvania, but even as Giuliani was speaking, Fox News joined CNN in calling Michigan for Biden, taking him up to as many as 264 electoral votes, according to the Fox count, which also called disputed Arizona for the former vice president. Biden would then need only Nevada, a state where he is leading, to put him over the top, even without winning Pennsylvania. But the final vote counts remained uncertain Wednesday night.
Earlier that morning, Trump prematurely declared victory in Michigan and other states, saying he’d won the election. “Frankly, we did win this election,” Trump said in remarks from the East Room of the White House, making an unfounded claim that the results are a “fraud.”
“Quite possibly we’ll do a national lawsuit and really expose the corruption of the Democratic Party,” Giuliani said. The same day the Trump campaign challenged the counting of votes in several other states.
Biden’s plea to “lower the temperature” is therefore likely to go largely unheeded, especially if Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—who retained his seat—keeps control of the Senate as well. (A half-dozen contests remained uncalled.) Though Biden has plainly won the popular vote, as Hillary Clinton had in 2016—with the count as of early Wednesday evening at 50.3 percent to 48.1 percent—the nation remains almost evenly divided in electoral votes and state legislatures.
Biden advocates placed some hope in his 47-year career of working with Republicans. “As senator and vice president he repeatedly demonstrated an ability to reach across the aisle to get things done, both in domestic and foreign affairs,” said Michael Haltzel, a former senior Senate aide to Biden. “In the latter category Biden was the leader of the successful bipartisan Senate efforts to enlarge NATO and to put an end to the wars in the Balkans. President-elect Biden’s administration will reestablish close cooperation with America’s allies and confront our adversaries with calmness and resolve.”
Other Biden allies have stressed the same points over the years. “He can sit down in foreign policy or other issues and find a common interest and drive the ideas forward,” his former Senate chief of staff, Ted Kaufman, who filled Biden’s senatorial seat after the latter became vice president, told me in an interview in 2010. “Look at what he did with Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond [in passing the chemical weapons treaty and crime bills, respectively, in the 1990s]. I mean, Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond! You don’t get more conservative than that. ”
Biden is also a deeply experienced internationalist committed to U.S. alliances and has pledged to act swiftly to restore U.S. prestige by reversing Trump’s worst failures on COVID-19, the economy, global stability, and climate change. A Republican-led Senate will almost certainly fight him every step of the way, and U.S. allies will remain nervous and unsettled.
“He understands governance better than anyone else,” the former Republican senator and defense secretary Chuck Hagel told me in an interview in 2010, saying it was he who advised Barack Obama to pick Biden as his running mate in 2008. “In particular, he understands Congress.”
But that means a President Biden will also know he’ll have to compromise—and he’s already indicated he’s willing to do so in an America that is still dominated by Trumpian politics. Indeed, it’s not hard to imagine Trump running against him again in 2024.
Biden, for example, will find it difficult to simply resurrect the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal he once advocated, in part because he must accommodate the powerful progressive wing in his own party that, like many Republicans, favors more protectionism. Biden has already said he would not simply rejoin the pact but would seek to renegotiate it to include “strong rules of origin” requiring more manufacturing in the United States, and before entering any new international trade deal he would focus on a Trump-like $400 billion “Buy America” initiative to boost domestic production.
Support for the World Trade Organization, which was fathered by Democrats under President Bill Clinton, is fast dwindling as well in the face of a now-bipartisan consensus that China has unfairly abused its rules to rob middle-class Americans of their jobs. And Biden, like Trump, has been seeking to pare down America’s role overseas for years; as Obama’s vice president, he argued against a U.S. buildup in Afghanistan and negotiated an accelerated withdrawal from Iraq.
Even so, the economy and COVID-19 will be the biggest challenges. Foreign Policy contributor Adam Tooze, an economic historian, wrote Wednesday: “The most likely result is divided control of the White House and Congress (with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate), paralysis in fiscal policy, and continued reliance on the Fed as the main backstop not just of the U.S. economy but of the entire global economy.”


foreignpolicy--2020-11-04--Why the Pandemic Didn’t Hurt Trump

Why the Pandemic Didn’t Hurt Trump

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
After what looks to be a narrow reelection loss for U.S. President Donald Trump and a worse than expected showing for Democrats in the House and Senate , several critics have bemoaned the fact that Democrats didn ’ t do better given the circumstances .
At least 233,000 Americans are dead in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ denialism and failed policies .
But this line of criticism doesn ’ t stand up to scrutiny .
Populist leaders in other countries that mishandled the coronavirus , such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom , have seen sharp polling boosts despite the calamity .
Trump ’ s callousness may have cost him that polling boost—but Western voters aren ’ t judging ineptness around the coronavirus harshly .
There are several reasons for that .
People still seem to see the pandemic purely as a natural disaster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failures .
And natural disasters—like wars—tend to boost incumbent support .
Many Americans have no point of comparison for such a global crisis , and even those who do are largely looking to European countries that , as their second wave hits , have failed nearly as much as the United States .
The numerous examples of successful control of the virus , from Australia to China to Nigeria , are almost all in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa , and simply aren ’ t on the radar of Western voters .
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the impact of lockdown is being felt far more harshly than the virus itself .
Only a minority of people have close friends or family who have died , but everyone has been economically and psychologically affected by coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns .
Trump ’ s anti-lockdown messaging catered to Americans ’ understandable desire that the pandemic ’ s impacts simply go away .
Republicans also frequently pushed the idea that those who had died were weak , unhealthy , or unworthy , tapping into the ableism that remains one of America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It didn ’ t help that Black and Latino communities were disproportionately hit .
And finally , never underestimate the power of good old-fashioned lying—especially when backed up with the weight of the presidency .
Trump has lied continually about the coronavirus .
Perhaps as a result , roughly half of Americans believe—falsely—that the pandemic is under control .
That delusion may end as the virus roars into brutal new life in the winter—but probably not .

After what looks to be a narrow reelection loss for U.S. President Donald Trump and a worse than expected showing for Democrats in the House and Senate, several critics have bemoaned the fact that Democrats didn’t do better given the circumstances. At least 233,000 Americans are dead in a pandemic seriously worsened by Trump’s denialism and failed policies.
After what looks to be a narrow reelection loss for U.S. President Donald Trump and a worse than expected showing for Democrats in the House and Senate, several critics have bemoaned the fact that Democrats didn’t do better given the circumstances. At least 233,000 Americans are dead in a pandemic seriously worsened by Trump’s denialism and failed policies.
But this line of criticism doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Populist leaders in other countries that mishandled the coronavirus, such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom, have seen sharp polling boosts despite the calamity. Trump’s callousness may have cost him that polling boost—but Western voters aren’t judging ineptness around the coronavirus harshly.
There are several reasons for that. People still seem to see the pandemic purely as a natural disaster, not as one worsened by policy failures. And natural disasters—like wars—tend to boost incumbent support. Many Americans have no point of comparison for such a global crisis, and even those who do are largely looking to European countries that, as their second wave hits, have failed nearly as much as the United States. The numerous examples of successful control of the virus, from Australia to China to Nigeria, are almost all in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa, and simply aren’t on the radar of Western voters.
On top of that, for many people, the impact of lockdown is being felt far more harshly than the virus itself. Only a minority of people have close friends or family who have died, but everyone has been economically and psychologically affected by coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns. Trump’s anti-lockdown messaging catered to Americans’ understandable desire that the pandemic’s impacts simply go away. Republicans also frequently pushed the idea that those who had died were weak, unhealthy, or unworthy, tapping into the ableism that remains one of America’s most potent—but least commented on—bigotries. It didn’t help that Black and Latino communities were disproportionately hit.
And finally, never underestimate the power of good old-fashioned lying—especially when backed up with the weight of the presidency. Trump has lied continually about the coronavirus. Perhaps as a result, roughly half of Americans believe—falsely—that the pandemic is under control. That delusion may end as the virus roars into brutal new life in the winter—but probably not.