foreignpolicy--2020-05-20--Canadian Officials Are Using Orwellian Methods to Protect Oil and Gas

Canadian Officials Are Using Orwellian Methods to Protect Oil and Gas Jason Kenney , the premier of the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta , went before the press in late March to announce a hefty new round of investment in the planned Keystone XL pipeline .
The announcement brought to mind a saying from the fantasy world of Game of Thrones : “ What is dead may never die.
” The Keystone XL pipeline , planned by the Canadian pipeline operator TC Energy and meant to transport crude oil from Canada to the United States , has already died more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of pipe infrastructure were staunchly opposed by the Barack Obama administration , and after much debate in both countries , the former U.S. president cited the need for climate policy leadership when he rejected the project in 2015 .
Now , amid the coronavirus pandemic , Keystone XL has been resurrected .
“ Today , Alberta is taking control of its economic destiny , ” said Kenney as he announced the investment of $ 1.1 billion to begin construction .
That investment is paired with a $ 4.2 billion loan guarantee from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than three years after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order reversing Obama ’ s veto of the project .
The largesse also came the same week that the provincial government laid off more than 20,000 staff in Alberta ’ s public schools , supposedly necessary to raise some $ 91 million for the province ’ s coronavirus response.The provincial government has always seemed guided by one mindset : oil and gas or bust .
Kenney defended the timing of the investment , claiming that jobs in energy and construction would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act now .
But this happened as the price for Canadian crude oil traded at an all-time low of less than $ 5 per barrel—before dropping even lower and trading below zero for the first time in history in April .
( This meant that producers had to pay customers to take the unwanted oil off their hands . )
So the continued faith in oil and gas to provide jobs to Albertans seems like a risky bet in a time of great uncertainty .
“ Now is not the time to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an industry that must become smaller to ensure a climate-safe future , ” said Julia Levin , the climate and energy program manager for Environmental Defence , a Canadian NGO .
At a press conference on April 24 , reporters asked Kenney at what point he would consider transitioning away from the province ’ s reliance on oil and gas and whether he was considering a Green New Deal like other governments around the world .
“ Our focus is on getting people back to work in Alberta , not pie-in-the-sky ideological schemes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are actually not trying to amplify but fight back against the political agenda of the green left .
… So we ’ re not going to cooperate with the folks that are trying to shut down Canada ’ s single largest subsector.
” But the seeds of this stance were planted even before Kenney took office , and the provincial government has always seemed guided by one mindset : oil and gas or bust .
Whittingham is an advocate for clean energy but has also backed the continued development of oil and gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits outweighed the costs .
That didn ’ t keep him from coming into the sights of a right-wing media outlet , Rebel News .
“ [ They ] portrayed me as Satan incarnate , ” Whittingham told Foreign Policy .
“ ‘ He ’ s anti-Alberta .
He ’ s anti-oil and gas.
’ ” Soon after that article was published , the provincial election campaign began .
It was primarily a contest between incumbent Premier Rachel Notley of the left-of-center New Democratic Party and Kenney , a former federal cabinet minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party ( UCP ) .
When the parties released their election platforms , Whittingham was stunned .
The UCP ’ s platform included an official promise : to fire Ed Whittingham .
But it wasn ’ t the prospect of being fired that shocked Whittingham the most ; it was that the largest political party in the province would use a civil servant as a punching bag .
Whittingham said it was a precedent for what he called “ the devolution of our politics.
” Whittingham wasn ’ t campaigning for or against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done anything to deliberately insult the UCP or its leader .
His expertise in clean energy technology was enough of an offense .
Shortly after the UCP ’ s landslide victory , Whittingham resigned his board seat before he could be fired .
The war room is decidedly pro-oil and costs the Alberta government some $ 21 million annually , though the budget has been trimmed since the start of the pandemic .
It became embroiled in controversy in early February , after the New York Times published an article about how some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ institutions were divesting from companies involved in Canadian oil sands , the main source for oil production in Alberta and considered especially environmentally destructive .
Olsen lashed out at the Times on Twitter , questioning its credibility as a news source , calling it “ dodgy , ” and saying the outlet had been accused on multiple occasions of anti-Semitism .
He later deleted the tweets and issued an online apology , but the outburst demonstrated the approach the war room is ready to take when it comes to criticism of Alberta ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ works as an online cheerleader for the oil and gas industry .
The organization primarily works as an online cheerleader for the oil and gas industry .
It actively greenwashes the role Canadian energy corporations play in climate change by promoting stories that shed a positive light on their green initiatives .
It also focuses on cleaning up the industry ’ s poor reputation by working with indigenous communities and amplifying indigenous voices that are in favor of developing oil and gas infrastructure .
While this is happening , the Kenney government has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annually to support indigenous groups in favor of oil and gas that are taking legal action against opponents of energy projects—even if the opponents are other indigenous groups .
These moves sparked concern among activists , including Alex Neve , the secretary-general of Amnesty International Canada .
He worries that those who oppose oil and gas development in Alberta are facing intimidation by the government .
In an interview with Foreign Policy , Neve said he was particularly concerned about the government ’ s use of social media .
If someone is targeted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public will take similar action against them and other targets , especially when the targets are historically marginalized groups like women and indigenous people .
“ Governments … create the sense of permission as to what ’ s in play and what ’ s not in play , ” Neve said .
“ At a minimum , we should never see or hear anything from political leaders which gives a nod and a wink that it ’ s somehow open season on human rights defenders , that they deserve to be attacked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s concerns , writing a harsh response in the National Post .
“ I understand it must be hard for you , ” he wrote .
“ When you look around the world and see the rise of authoritarian governments , civil war , human trafficking , genocide , and other gross violations of human rights , it must be a tall order to find something , anything to denounce here in our gelid but placid Dominion.
” Neve said the premier ’ s response only deepened his concerns .
But the provincial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ fight back strategy ” against what it says is an ongoing , coordinated attack on Alberta ’ s energy resources—mainly by foreign donors with interests in sidelining Canadian production .
In his 2019 election victory speech , Kenney blamed opposition against energy development on “ foreign-funded special interests , ” which he said were “ leading a campaign of economic sabotage against this great province.
” Kenney ’ s rhetoric and Orwellian methods seem to be working .
The threat of outsiders meddling in provincial affairs , real or imagined , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy of supporting oil and gas development at all costs .

Jason Kenney, the premier of the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta, went before the press in late March to announce a hefty new round of investment in the planned Keystone XL pipeline. The announcement brought to mind a saying from the fantasy world of Game of Thrones: “What is dead may never die.”
Jason Kenney, the premier of the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta, went before the press in late March to announce a hefty new round of investment in the planned Keystone XL pipeline. The announcement brought to mind a saying from the fantasy world of Game of Thrones: “What is dead may never die.”
The Keystone XL pipeline, planned by the Canadian pipeline operator TC Energy and meant to transport crude oil from Canada to the United States, has already died more than one death. The 1,200 miles of pipe infrastructure were staunchly opposed by the Barack Obama administration, and after much debate in both countries, the former U.S. president cited the need for climate policy leadership when he rejected the project in 2015.
Now, amid the coronavirus pandemic, Keystone XL has been resurrected. “Today, Alberta is taking control of its economic destiny,” said Kenney as he announced the investment of $1.1 billion to begin construction. That investment is paired with a $4.2 billion loan guarantee from the Alberta government.
The move came more than three years after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order reversing Obama’s veto of the project. The largesse also came the same week that the provincial government laid off more than 20,000 staff in Alberta’s public schools, supposedly necessary to raise some $91 million for the province’s coronavirus response.The provincial government has always seemed guided by one mindset: oil and gas or bust.
Kenney defended the timing of the investment, claiming that jobs in energy and construction would be lost if the government didn’t act now. But this happened as the price for Canadian crude oil traded at an all-time low of less than $5 per barrel—before dropping even lower and trading below zero for the first time in history in April. (This meant that producers had to pay customers to take the unwanted oil off their hands.) So the continued faith in oil and gas to provide jobs to Albertans seems like a risky bet in a time of great uncertainty. “Now is not the time to be further betting on the ongoing expansion of an industry that must become smaller to ensure a climate-safe future,” said Julia Levin, the climate and energy program manager for Environmental Defence, a Canadian NGO.
At a press conference on April 24, reporters asked Kenney at what point he would consider transitioning away from the province’s reliance on oil and gas and whether he was considering a Green New Deal like other governments around the world. “Our focus is on getting people back to work in Alberta, not pie-in-the-sky ideological schemes,” he said. “We are actually not trying to amplify but fight back against the political agenda of the green left. … So we’re not going to cooperate with the folks that are trying to shut down Canada’s single largest subsector.”
But the seeds of this stance were planted even before Kenney took office, and the provincial government has always seemed guided by one mindset: oil and gas or bust.
Ed Whittingham, a clean energy consultant in Canmore, Alberta, remembers being dragged into Alberta’s energy politics for the first time in 2019. He had just received an appointment to the board of the Alberta Energy Regulator, the public body that regulates energy development in Canada’s oil and gas heartland. He’d previously been the director of the Pembina Institute, an energy policy think tank labeled an enemy of industry by conservatives—even though the institute describes itself as being “staunchly nonpartisan.”
Whittingham is an advocate for clean energy but has also backed the continued development of oil and gas infrastructure in cases where he felt the benefits outweighed the costs. That didn’t keep him from coming into the sights of a right-wing media outlet, Rebel News. “[They] portrayed me as Satan incarnate,” Whittingham told Foreign Policy. “‘He’s anti-Alberta. He’s anti-oil and gas.’”
Soon after that article was published, the provincial election campaign began. It was primarily a contest between incumbent Premier Rachel Notley of the left-of-center New Democratic Party and Kenney, a former federal cabinet minister and the leader of the United Conservative Party (UCP).
When the parties released their election platforms, Whittingham was stunned. The UCP’s platform included an official promise: to fire Ed Whittingham. But it wasn’t the prospect of being fired that shocked Whittingham the most; it was that the largest political party in the province would use a civil servant as a punching bag. Whittingham said it was a precedent for what he called “the devolution of our politics.”
Whittingham wasn’t campaigning for or against anyone, and he hadn’t done anything to deliberately insult the UCP or its leader. His expertise in clean energy technology was enough of an offense.
Shortly after the UCP’s landslide victory, Whittingham resigned his board seat before he could be fired.
The new government unveiled another of its campaign promises: a publicly funded “war room”—since rebranded the Canadian Energy Centre—to influence the public debate on energy. The body’s purpose, according to its director, Tom Olsen, is “refuting and rebutting falsehoods while proactively creating a new Canadian energy narrative in Alberta, in Canada, and around the world.”
The war room is decidedly pro-oil and costs the Alberta government some $21 million annually, though the budget has been trimmed since the start of the pandemic. It became embroiled in controversy in early February, after the New York Times published an article about how some of the world’s biggest financial institutions were divesting from companies involved in Canadian oil sands, the main source for oil production in Alberta and considered especially environmentally destructive. Olsen lashed out at the Times on Twitter, questioning its credibility as a news source, calling it “dodgy,” and saying the outlet had been accused on multiple occasions of anti-Semitism. He later deleted the tweets and issued an online apology, but the outburst demonstrated the approach the war room is ready to take when it comes to criticism of Alberta’s oil and gas sector.The organization primarily works as an online cheerleader for the oil and gas industry.
The organization primarily works as an online cheerleader for the oil and gas industry. It actively greenwashes the role Canadian energy corporations play in climate change by promoting stories that shed a positive light on their green initiatives. It also focuses on cleaning up the industry’s poor reputation by working with indigenous communities and amplifying indigenous voices that are in favor of developing oil and gas infrastructure.
While this is happening, the Kenney government has also allotted more than $7 million annually to support indigenous groups in favor of oil and gas that are taking legal action against opponents of energy projects—even if the opponents are other indigenous groups.
These moves sparked concern among activists, including Alex Neve, the secretary-general of Amnesty International Canada. He worries that those who oppose oil and gas development in Alberta are facing intimidation by the government.
In an interview with Foreign Policy, Neve said he was particularly concerned about the government’s use of social media. If someone is targeted by political leaders, he said, the public will take similar action against them and other targets, especially when the targets are historically marginalized groups like women and indigenous people. “Governments … create the sense of permission as to what’s in play and what’s not in play,” Neve said. “At a minimum, we should never see or hear anything from political leaders which gives a nod and a wink that it’s somehow open season on human rights defenders, that they deserve to be attacked and criticized.”
Kenney dismissed Neve’s concerns, writing a harsh response in the National Post. “I understand it must be hard for you,” he wrote. “When you look around the world and see the rise of authoritarian governments, civil war, human trafficking, genocide, and other gross violations of human rights, it must be a tall order to find something, anything to denounce here in our gelid but placid Dominion.”
Neve said the premier’s response only deepened his concerns. But the provincial government has justified these tactics as its “fight back strategy” against what it says is an ongoing, coordinated attack on Alberta’s energy resources—mainly by foreign donors with interests in sidelining Canadian production. In his 2019 election victory speech, Kenney blamed opposition against energy development on “foreign-funded special interests,” which he said were “leading a campaign of economic sabotage against this great province.”
Kenney’s rhetoric and Orwellian methods seem to be working. The threat of outsiders meddling in provincial affairs, real or imagined, has united Albertans behind the government’s strategy of supporting oil and gas development at all costs.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-20--Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest: The Dark Side of the Fed’s Crisis-Fighting

Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest : The Dark Side of the Fed ’ s Crisis-Fighting In early December 2010 , the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization released a policy brief that noted : “ Recent bouts of extreme price volatility in global agricultural markets portend rising and more frequent threats to world food security.
” Several days later , on Dec. 17 , a Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi lit himself on fire after officials seized his fruit cart—depriving him in an instant of his sole livelihood .
This act inspired dozens of copycat immolations and motivated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sharply increasing food prices—that quickly spread through the Middle East and North Africa .
This wave of social upheaval became known as the Arab Spring in Western media outlets , but activists in the region described it as the Hunger Revolution an apt name considering that unrest was hardly limited to the Arab world .
Nor were these domestic uprisings contained within their borders .
The ensuing civil conflicts in Libya and Syria , in particular , became internationalized , and the 2015 refugee shock from the latter conflict contributed to populist-nationalist political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the world .
The coronavirus crisis has already prompted worry regarding access to affordable food , particularly in developing countries .
Earlier this month , President of the U.N. General Assembly Tijjani Muhammad-Bande warned of a pandemic-induced food crisis , while the U.N. ’ s World Food Program now expects a doubling of acute hunger relative to the pre-crisis baseline .
While there have been strong harvests in recent periods , public officials worry about fragility in global supply chains as well as hoarding and food protectionism .
As hunger rises , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of contentious politics , including protests , mob activity , and both violent and nonviolent mobilizations against governments .
Not all of these events generate widespread social disorder , but some of them do , and the consequences can be profound .
Protests over affordable food access are a regular feature of political economy .
There was a wave of such demonstrations in 2007-2008 , even before the Arab Spring began in late 2010 .
Social movements responding to food shocks have played a powerful role in shaping modern history .
More generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have played a powerful role in shaping modern history .
Sharply rising prices were a major driver of the French Revolution .
The 1848 revolutions followed several years of European drought that pushed food prices upward , and food protests not only kick-started the 1917 Russian Revolution from which the Soviet Union was born but also , in a historical irony , contributed to the USSR ’ s demise .
More recently , food crises hastened the 1998 removal of Suharto in Indonesia .
Many of these historical episodes involved natural processes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or exacerbated ) Malthusian dynamics—in which the availability of food threatens to be exhausted by the population ’ s demand for it—particularly when combined with rapid population increases in urban centers .
But another factor has had a dramatic impact on global food prices , and thus political stability : changes within the international money system .
Food is expansively traded cross-nationally , which generates a world price that is typically indexed in U.S. dollars ( still the currency that is most used internationally , by far ) .
Changes to the value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ move a wide range of prices around the world , including the price of food .
And the value of the U.S. dollar is most influenced by the actions of the Federal Reserve .
The Federal Reserve is mandated by the United States government to achieve full employment in the U.S. economy , with low and stable inflation , while maintaining financial stability .
The Fed uses a range of policy tools—especially interest rate adjustments and asset purchasing ( i.e.
, “ quantitative easing ” ) programs—to expand ( or contract ) the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goals .
Changes to money supply then have an impact on prices and , because the dollar is the most internationalized currency , these price changes are felt globally .
Commodities prices are particularly susceptible to U.S. monetary policy .
While other factors—including the stock of inventories , the functioning of distribution networks , and the level of global demand—also play a very important role , expansion of the U.S. dollar supply typically results in commodity price increases , all else equal .
And changes to the price of food can have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world .
This was true during the global financial crisis that began in 2007 .
As the U.S. economy began slowing , then started crashing , the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates from 5.25 percent to zero in a little over a year .
Taking the main policy rate to zero was unprecedented , but it proved insufficient to stabilize the U.S. economy when the financial sector began to collapse .
Beginning in the fall of 2008 , the Fed embarked on a series of quantitative easing operations , in which they exchanged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and mortgage-backed securities—to stabilize financial markets and stimulate an economic rebound .
From 2008 to 2014 , the total assets held by the Fed grew from less than $ 1 trillion to about $ 4.5 trillion .
This , too , was unprecedented .
The cumulative effect of these actions was to increase the dollar money supply by about 50 percent from 2008 to 2014 .
The extraordinary actions coincided with sharp increases in food prices , as shown in the figure below , which charts monthly percent changes in U.S. dollar supply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which sums cash along with bank and money market deposits ) alongside monthly changes in global food prices ( from the U.N. ’ s Food and Agriculture Organization ) .
Each phase of the 2007-2011 food shocks was preceded by a monetary policy change that impacted dollar supply .
Although it would be wrong to blame the crisis solely on Fed policy—other factors such as rising oil prices had an impact ( although these are also related to monetary policy changes ) —extraordinary monetary policymaking at the core of the international money system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ price rises , in turn , had extraordinary political effects : As the figure below shows , the number of food riots globally ( based on Marc Bellemare ’ s data ) jumped a whopping 250 percent above their average over the 2005-2011 period in response to these spikes in food prices , and the number of ongoing civil disobedience campaigns ( based on Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes 3.0 data ) rose from 13 in January 2010 to 28 in December 2011 .
These mobilization events generated protracted social conflicts in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought to power a new autocratic regime in Egypt , and contributed to the rise of the Islamic State .
We may be living through another such period .
The coronavirus pandemic has generated another serious economic crisis , and since mid-March the Federal Reserve has been engaged in expansionary monetary policies that are unique even by its own recent history .
After a brief and modest increase beginning in 2016 , policy interest rates are back down to zero .
More importantly , the Fed ’ s aggressive asset purchasing is on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2008-2014 : The central bank ’ s total assets have increased from $ 4.2 trillion at the end of February to nearly $ 7 trillion by the end of April .
The 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 protests were closely related to sharp changes in the price of cereals .
Some food prices are already on the rise .
As the figure above shows , meat prices have already reached their second all-time high , while supply is dwindling .
Even more important , however , is the price of cereals ( wheat , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the key staple in developing states and are the greatest contributors to caloric intake .
The 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 protests were closely related to sharp changes in the price of cereals .
The price of rice recently hit a multiyear high , although other cereals have been less volatile ( possibly because supplies remain high .
Fed policies may have the largest effect on American-grown food products , as the United States is the largest exporter of maize , second-largest exporter of wheat , and second-largest exporter of soybeans .
These monetary actions—particularly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called “ quantitative easing infinity ” —may be economically necessary to stabilize the U.S. ( and global ) economy against rapidly falling demand .
But the potential for even more expansive monetary interventions to destabilize food prices—which had finally normalized over the past four years after a decade of extreme volatility—is high .
The political ramifications of these price movements could be even more significant .
Moreover , there may be a looming demand shock , as societies begin to reopen from coronavirus lockdowns and people return to restaurants in the coming months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Which countries are most likely to be at risk ?
The heat map below plots the most recent iteration of the Global Food Security Index , which combines food affordability , availability , and quality into a single measure of security .
( Higher numbers indicate greater security . )
Data is not fully available for all countries , but in general missing data on these dimensions should not be taken as a sign that all is well .
What this indicates is that the list of least food-secure countries is similar today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa in particular , but also parts of Central and South Asia , Venezuela , and Central America .
This outcome ultimately stems from the fact that arguably the most powerful global economic actor , the Federal Reserve , ultimately possesses a domestic policy mandate while its actions have global effects .
Developing countries have long channeled their demands for commodities price stabilization through international institutions , and the same is true today : The United Nations called for a $ 2.5 trillion financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.N. ’ s Muhammad-Bande has argued that “ International cooperation and coordination are critical to promoting stability in food markets and preventing sudden price shocks.
” But these pleas have been met with near-silence by national governments .
Internationalism is in short supply today , as the United Stations disdains multilateralism , the European Union continues to dither , and China is unwilling to pay the cost of global public goods provision .
Yet some combination of these efforts—in addition to the mobilization of international financial institutions ( the World Bank and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ necessary to prevent the food shocks from creating widespread social upheaval .
The Federal Reserve is the actor with the longest global reach and fewest veto points , and its emergency stabilization programs could be used to support bonds issues by the U.S. Treasury that can , in turn , provide finance for international institutions and foreign governments to insulate global markets from sharp food price increases .
Of course , this would require the Trump administration to take much more interest in global affairs than it has up to now .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways .
Actions taken at the core of global networks have systemwide impacts .
The monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally , causing sharp increases in the price of key staples .
With high food prices come protests and riots , civil disobedience and mass mobilization , and—at least in some contexts—state collapse and civil war .
A decade after the most recent wave of food riots , its impacts are still noticeable : Syria remains in conflict , while the economic and political impact of Syrian refugee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where mobilizations are already on the rise ) , Turkey , Europe , and elsewhere .
This , in turn , provides populist-nationalist politicians with an effective item for their propaganda , which they use to consolidate power and reduce democracy .
Without an understanding of this complexity , a similar scenario could be repeated in coming days .

In early December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization released a policy brief that noted: “Recent bouts of extreme price volatility in global agricultural markets portend rising and more frequent threats to world food security.” Several days later, on Dec. 17, a Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi lit himself on fire after officials seized his fruit cart—depriving him in an instant of his sole livelihood. This act inspired dozens of copycat immolations and motivated large street protests—driven in large part by sharply increasing food prices —that quickly spread through the Middle East and North Africa.
In early December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization released a policy brief that noted: “Recent bouts of extreme price volatility in global agricultural markets portend rising and more frequent threats to world food security.” Several days later, on Dec. 17, a Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi lit himself on fire after officials seized his fruit cart—depriving him in an instant of his sole livelihood. This act inspired dozens of copycat immolations and motivated large street protests—driven in large part by sharply increasing food prices—that quickly spread through the Middle East and North Africa.
This wave of social upheaval became known as the Arab Spring in Western media outlets, but activists in the region described it as the Hunger Revolution , an apt name considering that unrest was hardly limited to the Arab world. Nor were these domestic uprisings contained within their borders. The ensuing civil conflicts in Libya and Syria, in particular, became internationalized, and the 2015 refugee shock from the latter conflict contributed to populist-nationalist political movements, first in Europe and then around the world.
The coronavirus crisis has already prompted worry regarding access to affordable food, particularly in developing countries. Earlier this month, President of the U.N. General Assembly Tijjani Muhammad-Bande warned of a pandemic-induced food crisis, while the U.N.’s World Food Program now expects a doubling of acute hunger relative to the pre-crisis baseline. While there have been strong harvests in recent periods, public officials worry about fragility in global supply chains as well as hoarding and food protectionism. As hunger rises, so does the potential for widespread episodes of contentious politics, including protests, mob activity, and both violent and nonviolent mobilizations against governments.
Not all of these events generate widespread social disorder, but some of them do, and the consequences can be profound. Protests over affordable food access are a regular feature of political economy. There was a wave of such demonstrations in 2007-2008, even before the Arab Spring began in late 2010. Social movements responding to food shocks have played a powerful role in shaping modern history. More generally, social movements responding to food shocks have played a powerful role in shaping modern history. Sharply rising prices were a major driver of the French Revolution. The 1848 revolutions followed several years of European drought that pushed food prices upward, and food protests not only kick-started the 1917 Russian Revolution from which the Soviet Union was born but also, in a historical irony, contributed to the USSR’s demise. More recently, food crises hastened the 1998 removal of Suharto in Indonesia.
Many of these historical episodes involved natural processes, such as drought, that introduced (or exacerbated) Malthusian dynamics—in which the availability of food threatens to be exhausted by the population’s demand for it—particularly when combined with rapid population increases in urban centers. But another factor has had a dramatic impact on global food prices, and thus political stability: changes within the international money system.
Food is expansively traded cross-nationally, which generates a world price that is typically indexed in U.S. dollars (still the currency that is most used internationally, by far). Changes to the value of the greenback have the potential to move a wide range of prices around the world, including the price of food. And the value of the U.S. dollar is most influenced by the actions of the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is mandated by the United States government to achieve full employment in the U.S. economy, with low and stable inflation, while maintaining financial stability. The Fed uses a range of policy tools—especially interest rate adjustments and asset purchasing (i.e., “quantitative easing”) programs—to expand (or contract) the supply of dollars in pursuit of these goals. Changes to money supply then have an impact on prices and, because the dollar is the most internationalized currency, these price changes are felt globally.
Commodities prices are particularly susceptible to U.S. monetary policy. While other factors—including the stock of inventories, the functioning of distribution networks, and the level of global demand—also play a very important role, expansion of the U.S. dollar supply typically results in commodity price increases, all else equal. And changes to the price of food can have a powerful impact on social stability around the world.
This was true during the global financial crisis that began in 2007. As the U.S. economy began slowing, then started crashing, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates from 5.25 percent to zero in a little over a year. Taking the main policy rate to zero was unprecedented, but it proved insufficient to stabilize the U.S. economy when the financial sector began to collapse. Beginning in the fall of 2008, the Fed embarked on a series of quantitative easing operations, in which they exchanged dollars for other financial assets—mostly government bonds and mortgage-backed securities—to stabilize financial markets and stimulate an economic rebound. From 2008 to 2014, the total assets held by the Fed grew from less than $1 trillion to about $4.5 trillion. This, too, was unprecedented. The cumulative effect of these actions was to increase the dollar money supply by about 50 percent from 2008 to 2014 .
The extraordinary actions coincided with sharp increases in food prices, as shown in the figure below, which charts monthly percent changes in U.S. dollar supply (using the standard M2 measure, which sums cash along with bank and money market deposits) alongside monthly changes in global food prices (from the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization). Each phase of the 2007-2011 food shocks was preceded by a monetary policy change that impacted dollar supply. Although it would be wrong to blame the crisis solely on Fed policy—other factors such as rising oil prices had an impact (although these are also related to monetary policy changes)—extraordinary monetary policymaking at the core of the international money system produced sharp commodities price movements.
Food Shocks and the Dollar Supply The supply of U.S. currency alongside the Food Price Index, which measures the monthly change in global prices of a basket of commodities
Food price rises, in turn, had extraordinary political effects: As the figure below shows, the number of food riots globally (based on Marc Bellemare’s data) jumped a whopping 250 percent above their average over the 2005-2011 period in response to these spikes in food prices, and the number of ongoing civil disobedience campaigns (based on Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes 3.0 data) rose from 13 in January 2010 to 28 in December 2011. These mobilization events generated protracted social conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, brought to power a new autocratic regime in Egypt, and contributed to the rise of the Islamic State.
We may be living through another such period. The coronavirus pandemic has generated another serious economic crisis, and since mid-March the Federal Reserve has been engaged in expansionary monetary policies that are unique even by its own recent history. After a brief and modest increase beginning in 2016, policy interest rates are back down to zero. More importantly, the Fed’s aggressive asset purchasing is on pace to dwarf the quantitative easing programs of 2008-2014: The central bank’s total assets have increased from $4.2 trillion at the end of February to nearly $7 trillion by the end of April.
The 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 protests were closely related to sharp changes in the price of cereals.
Some food prices are already on the rise. As the figure above shows, meat prices have already reached their second all-time high, while supply is dwindling. Even more important, however, is the price of cereals (wheat, maize, rice), which constitute the key staple in developing states and are the greatest contributors to caloric intake. The 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 protests were closely related to sharp changes in the price of cereals. The price of rice recently hit a multiyear high, although other cereals have been less volatile (possibly because supplies remain high ) . Fed policies may have the largest effect on American-grown food products, as the United States is the largest exporter of maize, second-largest exporter of wheat, and second-largest exporter of soybeans.
These monetary actions—particularly large-scale asset purchases, which are being called “quantitative easing infinity”—may be economically necessary to stabilize the U.S. (and global) economy against rapidly falling demand. But the potential for even more expansive monetary interventions to destabilize food prices—which had finally normalized over the past four years after a decade of extreme volatility—is high. The political ramifications of these price movements could be even more significant. Moreover, there may be a looming demand shock, as societies begin to reopen from coronavirus lockdowns and people return to restaurants in the coming months, thus contributing to rising prices.
Which countries are most likely to be at risk? The heat map below plots the most recent iteration of the Global Food Security Index, which combines food affordability, availability, and quality into a single measure of security. (Higher numbers indicate greater security.) Data is not fully available for all countries, but in general missing data on these dimensions should not be taken as a sign that all is well. What this indicates is that the list of least food-secure countries is similar today to those in the 2000s: countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa in particular, but also parts of Central and South Asia, Venezuela, and Central America.
Global Food Security Index
This outcome ultimately stems from the fact that arguably the most powerful global economic actor, the Federal Reserve, ultimately possesses a domestic policy mandate while its actions have global effects. Developing countries have long channeled their demands for commodities price stabilization through international institutions, and the same is true today: The United Nations called for a $2.5 trillion financial support fund for developing countries, and the U.N.’s Muhammad-Bande has argued that “International cooperation and coordination are critical to promoting stability in food markets and preventing sudden price shocks.”
But these pleas have been met with near-silence by national governments. Internationalism is in short supply today, as the United Stations disdains multilateralism, the European Union continues to dither, and China is unwilling to pay the cost of global public goods provision. Yet some combination of these efforts—in addition to the mobilization of international financial institutions (the World Bank and IMF) on generous terms—will likely be necessary to prevent the food shocks from creating widespread social upheaval. The Federal Reserve is the actor with the longest global reach and fewest veto points, and its emergency stabilization programs could be used to support bonds issues by the U.S. Treasury that can, in turn, provide finance for international institutions and foreign governments to insulate global markets from sharp food price increases. Of course, this would require the Trump administration to take much more interest in global affairs than it has up to now.
The global political economy is interdependent in complex ways. Actions taken at the core of global networks have systemwide impacts. The monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally, causing sharp increases in the price of key staples. With high food prices come protests and riots, civil disobedience and mass mobilization, and—at least in some contexts—state collapse and civil war.
A decade after the most recent wave of food riots, its impacts are still noticeable: Syria remains in conflict, while the economic and political impact of Syrian refugee flows are being felt in Lebanon (where mobilizations are already on the rise), Turkey, Europe, and elsewhere. This, in turn, provides populist-nationalist politicians with an effective item for their propaganda, which they use to consolidate power and reduce democracy. Without an understanding of this complexity, a similar scenario could be repeated in coming days.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-21--Do Poor Countries Face a Greater Risk From Coronavirus?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The WHO warns of rising coronavirus cases in low and middle-income countries , Cyclone Amphan hits India and Bangladesh , and Brazil ’ s culture secretary resigns as the coronavirus pandemic surges .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
On Wednesday , World Health Organization ( WHO ) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said his organization is “ very concerned about rising cases in low- and middle-income countries , ” as the WHO reported the highest daily jump in new coronavirus cases globally since the pandemic began .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s the poorer ones that are seeing the number of new cases jump : Of the top ten countries with the highest daily jump in coronavirus cases yesterday , only one high-income country—the United States—made the list .
To see why Tedros is worried , look at Brazil .
The country now has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases globally and is close to overtaking Russia in second place .
Yesterday , Brazil recorded more than 20,000 new infections .
In rich countries , the poor are dying disproportionately .
But it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rich nations and poor ones .
The poor within rich societies are also dying disproportionately as the pandemic exposes vast inequalities .
A report released by the APM Research Lab showed that race is a determining factor in coronavirus deaths in the United States—a country where a typical white family has a net worth ten times higher than a typical black family .
The APM study showed that black Americans are dying at more than twice the rate as white Americans .
Do poor countries face a higher risk ?
Foreign Policy has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the first outbreak in China began , highlighting how different countries are challenged by the coronavirus .
Some developing countries , such as Vietnam , have weathered the crisis far better than wealthier ones ; others , like Liberia , have provided valuable lessons in controlling outbreaks based on their past experiences with diseases such as Ebola .
Still , as the number of infections rises , poorer governments will face even more daunting challenges .
For some countries , simply accessing regularly running water is a challenge , especially when regular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevention .
Last week , Alan Nicol wrote in FP about Ethiopia ’ s water woes , and what can be done to fix the problem .
Poor governance is also causing harm .
Reporting for FP from Pakistan , Neha Maqsood writes , a hesitant government has left the poorest citizens relying on charity rather than state assistance .
Does social distancing do more harm than good ?
Lockdowns hurt economies in poorer countries , too .
As Mushfiq Mobarak and Zachary Barnett-Howell argued in FP in April , “ imposing strict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daily hands-on labor to feed their families—could lead to as many deaths from deprivation and preventable diseases as from COVID-19.
” Reporting from Afghanistan , Stefanie Glinksi heard from a local man whose meager livelihood salvaging garbage had fallen apart due to his customers staying indoors .
“ We ’ re supposed to do the same—to stay home , ” the man said .
“ Of course we ’ re afraid , of course we ’ d like to stay home if we had the support to do so , but we would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus even reaches us .
If the situation continues like this for another six months , we will be digging our own graves.
” Cyclone Amphan fallout .
After Cyclone Amphan made landfall yesterday , hitting eastern India and Bangladesh , the full extent of destruction is still unknown .
An estimated 24 people have been killed and videos from Kolkata showed roofs being swept off buildings .
West Bengal ’ s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said it would take “ three to four days to assess the damage ” and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her state since the cyclone arrived .
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra , director general of the India Meteorological Department estimated that areas up to 10 miles inland from the coast could be inundated .
Brazil ’ s culture secretary resigns as outbreak spreads .
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ’ s culture secretary has left his cabinet , just two months after taking up the post—the latest of many departures from his government , including two health ministers in less than a month and his justice minister , who has accused him of nepotism and corruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ popular actress in Brazil , is leaving to take up a new position as head of the country ’ s national film archives , bringing her closer to her family in São Paulo .
Duarte ’ s exit is relatively low-key compared to that of her predecessor , Roberto Alvim , who resigned in January after giving a speech paraphrasing Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels .
Amid the churn in his cabinet , Bolsonaro ’ s government is struggling to address a growing coronavirus outbreak .
After months of downplaying the pandemic and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the president is now faced with increasingly grim statistics .
Brazil recorded over 1,100 deaths on Tuesday and , on Wednesday , its total coronavirus caseload surpassed Spain ’ s .
With more than 293,000 cases , Brazil now has the third-highest number of recorded infections in the world after the United States and Russia .
The true number is likely much higher , given the country ’ s low rate of testing ; Brazil has tested just 3,400 people per million , compared to approximately 65,000 per million in Spain .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin .
The 2,000 members of China ’ s national advisory body , the Chinese People ’ s Political Consultative Conference ( CPPCC ) meets today in the first of China ’ s “ Two Sessions , ” the highlight of the Chinese political calendar .
The second of the two meetings—the National People ’ s Congress—begins on Friday .
Chinese President Xi Jinping is fresh off a confident appearance at the World Health Assembly earlier in the week and will be eager to project control and calm as China faces a damaged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be undisturbed by the World Health Organization ’ s decision to conduct an investigation into the international response to the pandemic .
As James Palmer writes in FP ’ s China Brief newsletter , China ’ s influence at the WHO is likely to head off any sharp critiques of the country .
“ An actual investigation would require a level of access and transparency that is now unthinkable as China ’ s party-state system reaches new peaks of paranoia.
” For more news and analysis on stories like this , sign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wednesdays .
Venezuela to protect Iranian tankers .
Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said his country ’ s military will escort five Iranian fuel tankers to port in Venezuela once they have entered its exclusive economic zone .
The tankers are currently in the Atlantic Ocean and are expected to arrive in Venezuela in late May or early June .
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó said the delivery should cause “ alarm ” in Latin America , adding that Venezuela ’ s need to import fuel shows the how poorly President Nicolás Maduro @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s foreign ministry spokesman has warned of a “ firm response ” if the United States attempts to interfere with the shipment .
Mass testing in Wuhan .
The city of Wuhan has tested 1.3 million residents for the coronavirus in the past two days , according to local health authorities .
Wuhan is scrambling to find asymptomatic carriers of the virus to prevent another large outbreak , after a cluster of cases was found earlier in the month .
Three million of Wuhan ’ s residents had already been tested between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state media says authorities plan to test all 11 million residents before the end of the month .
If New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had not already endeared herself enough to the world as a result of her government ’ s swift and successful policies to halt New Zealand ’ s coronavirus outbreak , she has now floated a novel solution to balancing a post-coronavirus economy : A four-day workweek .
Ardern made the comments on a live video on Facebook , suggesting a shorter week would give residents more time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time when international travel is limited and borders are closed .
“ I hear lots of people suggesting we should have a four-day workweek .
Ultimately that really sits between employers and employees .
But as I ’ ve said there ’ s just so much we ’ ve learnt about Covid and that flexibility of people working from home , the productivity that can be driven out of that , ” she said .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The WHO warns of rising coronavirus cases in low and middle-income countries , Cyclone Amphan hits India and Bangladesh, and Brazil’s culture secretary resigns as the coronavirus pandemic surges.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The WHO warns of rising coronavirus cases in low and middle-income countries, Cyclone Amphan hits India and Bangladesh, and Brazil’s culture secretary resigns as the coronavirus pandemic surges.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
As Rich Countries Reopen, COVID-19 Strikes Poor Countries
On Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said his organization is “very concerned about rising cases in low- and middle-income countries,” as the WHO reported the highest daily jump in new coronavirus cases globally since the pandemic began.
While rich countries strategize on reopening, it’s the poorer ones that are seeing the number of new cases jump: Of the top ten countries with the highest daily jump in coronavirus cases yesterday, only one high-income country—the United States—made the list. To see why Tedros is worried, look at Brazil. The country now has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases globally and is close to overtaking Russia in second place. Yesterday, Brazil recorded more than 20,000 new infections.
In rich countries, the poor are dying disproportionately. But it’s not just a disparity between rich nations and poor ones. The poor within rich societies are also dying disproportionately as the pandemic exposes vast inequalities. A report released by the APM Research Lab showed that race is a determining factor in coronavirus deaths in the United States—a country where a typical white family has a net worth ten times higher than a typical black family. The APM study showed that black Americans are dying at more than twice the rate as white Americans.
Do poor countries face a higher risk? Foreign Policy has been tracking the coronavirus across the world since the first outbreak in China began, highlighting how different countries are challenged by the coronavirus.
Some developing countries, such as Vietnam, have weathered the crisis far better than wealthier ones; others, like Liberia, have provided valuable lessons in controlling outbreaks based on their past experiences with diseases such as Ebola. Still, as the number of infections rises, poorer governments will face even more daunting challenges.
For some countries, simply accessing regularly running water is a challenge, especially when regular handwashing has become so important to coronavirus prevention. Last week, Alan Nicol wrote in FP about Ethiopia’s water woes, and what can be done to fix the problem. Poor governance is also causing harm. Reporting for FP from Pakistan, Neha Maqsood writes, a hesitant government has left the poorest citizens relying on charity rather than state assistance.
Does social distancing do more harm than good? Lockdowns hurt economies in poorer countries, too. As Mushfiq Mobarak and Zachary Barnett-Howell argued in FP in April, “imposing strict lockdowns in poor countries—where people depend on daily hands-on labor to feed their families—could lead to as many deaths from deprivation and preventable diseases as from COVID-19.”
Reporting from Afghanistan, Stefanie Glinksi heard from a local man whose meager livelihood salvaging garbage had fallen apart due to his customers staying indoors. “We’re supposed to do the same—to stay home,” the man said. “Of course we’re afraid, of course we’d like to stay home if we had the support to do so, but we would go hungry. We might die before the virus even reaches us. If the situation continues like this for another six months, we will be digging our own graves.”
What We’re Following Today
Cyclone Amphan fallout. After Cyclone Amphan made landfall yesterday, hitting eastern India and Bangladesh, the full extent of destruction is still unknown. An estimated 24 people have been killed and videos from Kolkata showed roofs being swept off buildings. West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said it would take “three to four days to assess the damage” and that at least 12 people had died in her state since the cyclone arrived. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department estimated that areas up to 10 miles inland from the coast could be inundated.
Brazil’s culture secretary resigns as outbreak spreads. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s culture secretary has left his cabinet, just two months after taking up the post—the latest of many departures from his government, including two health ministers in less than a month and his justice minister, who has accused him of nepotism and corruption.
Regina Duarte, who is a popular actress in Brazil, is leaving to take up a new position as head of the country’s national film archives, bringing her closer to her family in São Paulo. Duarte’s exit is relatively low-key compared to that of her predecessor, Roberto Alvim, who resigned in January after giving a speech paraphrasing Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.
Amid the churn in his cabinet, Bolsonaro’s government is struggling to address a growing coronavirus outbreak. After months of downplaying the pandemic and undermining local officials’ calls for lockdowns, the president is now faced with increasingly grim statistics. Brazil recorded over 1,100 deaths on Tuesday and, on Wednesday, its total coronavirus caseload surpassed Spain’s. With more than 293,000 cases, Brazil now has the third-highest number of recorded infections in the world after the United States and Russia. The true number is likely much higher, given the country’s low rate of testing; Brazil has tested just 3,400 people per million, compared to approximately 65,000 per million in Spain.
China’s “Two Sessions” begin. The 2,000 members of China’s national advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) meets today in the first of China’s “Two Sessions,” the highlight of the Chinese political calendar. The second of the two meetings—the National People’s Congress—begins on Friday. Chinese President Xi Jinping is fresh off a confident appearance at the World Health Assembly earlier in the week and will be eager to project control and calm as China faces a damaged economy and a battered reputation.
Xi will be undisturbed by the World Health Organization’s decision to conduct an investigation into the international response to the pandemic. As James Palmer writes in FP’s China Brief newsletter, China’s influence at the WHO is likely to head off any sharp critiques of the country. “An actual investigation would require a level of access and transparency that is now unthinkable as China’s party-state system reaches new peaks of paranoia.”
For more news and analysis on stories like this, sign up for China Brief, delivered on Wednesdays.
Keep an Eye On
Venezuela to protect Iranian tankers. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said his country’s military will escort five Iranian fuel tankers to port in Venezuela once they have entered its exclusive economic zone. The tankers are currently in the Atlantic Ocean and are expected to arrive in Venezuela in late May or early June. Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó said the delivery should cause “alarm” in Latin America, adding that Venezuela’s need to import fuel shows the how poorly President Nicolás Maduro has managed the oil-rich country. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman has warned of a “firm response” if the United States attempts to interfere with the shipment.
Mass testing in Wuhan. The city of Wuhan has tested 1.3 million residents for the coronavirus in the past two days, according to local health authorities. Wuhan is scrambling to find asymptomatic carriers of the virus to prevent another large outbreak, after a cluster of cases was found earlier in the month. Three million of Wuhan’s residents had already been tested between April 1 and May 13, and state media says authorities plan to test all 11 million residents before the end of the month.
Odds and Ends
If New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had not already endeared herself enough to the world as a result of her government’s swift and successful policies to halt New Zealand’s coronavirus outbreak, she has now floated a novel solution to balancing a post-coronavirus economy: A four-day workweek. Ardern made the comments on a live video on Facebook, suggesting a shorter week would give residents more time to explore the country—boosting domestic tourism at a time when international travel is limited and borders are closed.
“I hear lots of people suggesting we should have a four-day workweek. Ultimately that really sits between employers and employees. But as I’ve said there’s just so much we’ve learnt about Covid and that flexibility of people working from home, the productivity that can be driven out of that,” she said.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-20--Albertan Officials Are Using Orwellian Methods to Protect Oil and Gas

Albertan Officials Are Using Orwellian Methods to Protect Oil and Gas Jason Kenney , the premier of the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta , went before the press in late March to announce a hefty new round of investment in the planned Keystone XL pipeline .
The announcement brought to mind a saying from the fantasy world of Game of Thrones : “ What is dead may never die.
” The Keystone XL pipeline , planned by the Canadian pipeline operator TC Energy and meant to transport crude oil from Canada to the United States , has already died more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of pipe infrastructure were staunchly opposed by the Barack Obama administration , and after much debate in both countries , the former U.S. president cited the need for climate policy leadership when he rejected the project in 2015 .
Now , amid the coronavirus pandemic , Keystone XL has been resurrected .
“ Today , Alberta is taking control of its economic destiny , ” said Kenney as he announced the investment of $ 1.1 billion to begin construction .
That investment is paired with a $ 4.2 billion loan guarantee from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than three years after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order reversing Obama ’ s veto of the project .
The largesse also came the same week that the provincial government laid off more than 20,000 staff in Alberta ’ s public schools , supposedly necessary to raise some $ 91 million for the province ’ s coronavirus response.The provincial government has always seemed guided by one mindset : oil and gas or bust .
Kenney defended the timing of the investment , claiming that jobs in energy and construction would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act now .
But this happened as the price for Canadian crude oil traded at an all-time low of less than $ 5 per barrel—before dropping even lower and trading below zero for the first time in history in April .
( This meant that producers had to pay customers to take the unwanted oil off their hands . )
So the continued faith in oil and gas to provide jobs to Albertans seems like a risky bet in a time of great uncertainty .
“ Now is not the time to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an industry that must become smaller to ensure a climate-safe future , ” said Julia Levin , the climate and energy program manager for Environmental Defence , a Canadian NGO .
At a press conference on April 24 , reporters asked Kenney at what point he would consider transitioning away from the province ’ s reliance on oil and gas and whether he was considering a Green New Deal like other governments around the world .
“ Our focus is on getting people back to work in Alberta , not pie-in-the-sky ideological schemes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are actually not trying to amplify but fight back against the political agenda of the green left .
… So we ’ re not going to cooperate with the folks that are trying to shut down Canada ’ s single largest subsector.
” But the seeds of this stance were planted even before Kenney took office , and the provincial government has always seemed guided by one mindset : oil and gas or bust .
Whittingham is an advocate for clean energy but has also backed the continued development of oil and gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits outweighed the costs .
That didn ’ t keep him from coming into the sights of a right-wing media outlet , Rebel News .
“ [ They ] portrayed me as Satan incarnate , ” Whittingham told Foreign Policy .
“ ‘ He ’ s anti-Alberta .
He ’ s anti-oil and gas.
’ ” Soon after that article was published , the provincial election campaign began .
It was primarily a contest between incumbent Premier Rachel Notley of the left-of-center New Democratic Party and Kenney , a former federal cabinet minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party ( UCP ) .
When the parties released their election platforms , Whittingham was stunned .
The UCP ’ s platform included an official promise : to fire Ed Whittingham .
But it wasn ’ t the prospect of being fired that shocked Whittingham the most ; it was that the largest political party in the province would use a civil servant as a punching bag .
Whittingham said it was a precedent for what he called “ the devolution of our politics.
” Whittingham wasn ’ t campaigning for or against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done anything to deliberately insult the UCP or its leader .
His expertise in clean energy technology was enough of an offense .
Shortly after the UCP ’ s landslide victory , Whittingham resigned his board seat before he could be fired .
The war room is decidedly pro-oil and costs the Alberta government some $ 21 million annually , though the budget has been trimmed since the start of the pandemic .
It became embroiled in controversy in early February , after the New York Times published an article about how some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ institutions were divesting from companies involved in Canadian oil sands , the main source for oil production in Alberta and considered especially environmentally destructive .
Olsen lashed out at the Times on Twitter , questioning its credibility as a news source , calling it “ dodgy , ” and saying the outlet had been accused on multiple occasions of anti-Semitism .
He later deleted the tweets and issued an online apology , but the outburst demonstrated the approach the war room is ready to take when it comes to criticism of Alberta ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ works as an online cheerleader for the oil and gas industry .
The organization primarily works as an online cheerleader for the oil and gas industry .
It actively greenwashes the role Canadian energy corporations play in climate change by promoting stories that shed a positive light on their green initiatives .
It also focuses on cleaning up the industry ’ s poor reputation by working with indigenous communities and amplifying indigenous voices that are in favor of developing oil and gas infrastructure .
While this is happening , the Kenney government has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annually to support indigenous groups in favor of oil and gas that are taking legal action against opponents of energy projects—even if the opponents are other indigenous groups .
These moves sparked concern among activists , including Alex Neve , the secretary-general of Amnesty International Canada .
He worries that those who oppose oil and gas development in Alberta are facing intimidation by the government .
In an interview with Foreign Policy , Neve said he was particularly concerned about the government ’ s use of social media .
If someone is targeted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the public will take similar action against them and other targets , especially when the targets are historically marginalized groups like women and indigenous people .
“ Governments … create the sense of permission as to what ’ s in play and what ’ s not in play , ” Neve said .
“ At a minimum , we should never see or hear anything from political leaders which gives a nod and a wink that it ’ s somehow open season on human rights defenders , that they deserve to be attacked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s concerns , writing a harsh response in the National Post .
“ I understand it must be hard for you , ” he wrote .
“ When you look around the world and see the rise of authoritarian governments , civil war , human trafficking , genocide , and other gross violations of human rights , it must be a tall order to find something , anything to denounce here in our gelid but placid Dominion.
” Neve said the premier ’ s response only deepened his concerns .
But the provincial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ fight back strategy ” against what it says is an ongoing , coordinated attack on Alberta ’ s energy resources—mainly by foreign donors with interests in sidelining Canadian production .
In his 2019 election victory speech , Kenney blamed opposition against energy development on “ foreign-funded special interests , ” which he said were “ leading a campaign of economic sabotage against this great province.
” Kenney ’ s rhetoric and Orwellian methods seem to be working .
The threat of outsiders meddling in provincial affairs , real or imagined , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy of supporting oil and gas development at all costs .


foreignpolicy--2020-05-21--First the Pandemic. Then a Killer Cyclone.

First the Pandemic .
Then a Killer Cyclone .
Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s South Asia Brief .
This week , a deadly super cyclone smashes into India and Bangladesh , Pakistan ’ s Supreme Court bans coronavirus restrictions , and Afghanistan ’ s rival leaders form a power-sharing deal .
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
At least 80 people have died after a powerful super cyclone tore through the coast of eastern India and Bangladesh on Wednesday , destroying shacks , upending trees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ floods .
The death toll may still rise as rescue teams scour coastal areas to assess the destruction .
Cyclone Amphan could have been far worse .
As recently as Monday , Amphan was classified as a Category 5 , the highest possible designation for storms , with winds over 156 miles per hour .
But Amphan weakened to a Category 2 by landfall , with winds around 100 miles per hour .
Officials in India and Bangladesh evacuated more than 3 million residents along the coast of the Bay of Bengal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lives .
The last super cyclone to hit India , the 1999 Odisha cyclone , killed more than 10,000 people and displaced many more .
The pandemic made things harder .
Both India and Bangladesh surmounted immense odds in safeguarding their coastal residents , many of whom may have been scared to move to government shelters where they risked catching the coronavirus .
The pandemic ’ s real impact in combination with the cyclone will only be seen in the coming weeks , however , as millions set about repairing their homes and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The coronavirus has already hit vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh , and a period of displacement will increase the chances of transmission across the region .
Kolkata ’ s damages .
This one is personal , because I grew up in Kolkata in the 1980s and 1990s and still have family and friends there .
The city is the former capital of the British Raj and has landmarks that are hundreds of years old and often fragile .
Images on television and social media tell a story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ripped trees out by their roots , damaging roads , cars , and homes .
Flooding has damaged warehouses and led to lost inventory .
Some residents will likely spend days without electricity .
And it all comes as the city was already reeling from months of inactivity amid a national lockdown .
When I was CNN ’ s South Asia bureau chief between 2014 and 2018 , I covered several natural disasters in the region , but Kolkata was often spared .
Not this time .
The capital of West Bengal is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the eye of the storm passed right by it .
For most Kolkatans , this is the worst cyclone in living memory .
Some of Amphan ’ s impacts may take days and weeks to reveal themselves .
When a prominent bridge collapsed in Kolkata in 2016 , I wrote at the time that many buildings and bridges are of poor quality because of “ lax regulations , rampant corruption , poor building materials , and badly trained workers.
” That context is important to keep in mind as structural damages to haphazardly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city ’ s slums—emerge in the coming days , causing a cascade of other problems .
Climate change .
While Amphan is a singular event , one can not ignore the impact of climate change in the region .
As the waters of the Bay of Bengal get warmer , they are more likely to trigger more powerful storms with greater frequency .
The matter is compounded by two other factors .
First , hundreds of millions of people live in coastal areas , most of them quite poor and residing in weak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , some of the region ’ s best natural defenses , such as the mangroves of the Sundarbans , that weaken the impact of storms and sea surges have been eroding over the last few decades because of industrial pollution and man-made construction .
As sea levels rise , eastern India and Bangladesh will only become more vulnerable to climate-related disasters .
Coronavirus cases rise , but not exponentially .
The total number of cases in South Asia topped 200,000 today , but it is doubling only around every two weeks , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the height of the outbreak in New York , cases doubled every three days .
But there are several causes for concern .
In Pakistan , the country ’ s Supreme Court ordered the government to lift restrictions , saying the virus “ apparently is not a pandemic in Pakistan.
” The decision is binding .
Across South Asia , which has more Muslims than any other part of the world , the end of Ramadan this weekend marks the beginning of Eid festivities , when people usually travel to visit families and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could easily spread further .
The Afghan power-sharing deal .
In a major step for Kabul , Afghan President Ashraf Ghani signed a power-sharing deal with his main rival , Abdullah Abdullah .
Each leader will appoint half of the government cabinet .
While Ghani will have undivided executive governing authority , Abdullah will take charge of peace efforts with the Taliban .
Meanwhile , the U.S. special envoy to the region , Zalmay Khalilzad , met Taliban leaders in Doha , Qatar , on Wednesday and called for a reduction in violence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civilian casualties in Afghanistan jumped to 380 in April—up from 208 in the same period last year .
Sri Lanka ’ s civil war anniversary .
On Tuesday , Sri Lankans marked 11 years since the end of the country ’ s civil war .
Rights groups continue to exert pressure on Colombo to investigate allegations of human rights violations in the war .
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa , who served as the defense minister during the conflict , remained defiant this week .
“ In a small country like ours where our war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not allow anyone or [ any ] organization to exert undue pressure on them or harass them , ” he said .
Cyclone Amphan got me wondering : Who names these storms ?
A ) The United Nations B ) The National Hurricane Center in Miami C ) The World Meteorological Organization D ) The World Health Organization Scroll down for the answer .
Jio Platforms .
It ’ s almost like investors are racing to join India ’ s Reliance Industries juggernaut .
The Financial Times reports that the U.S. private @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buy a $ 1.5 billion stake in Jio Platforms , the Reliance-owned cellular and wireless data company .
United Arab Emirates ’ Mubadala and Saudi Arabia ’ s Public Investment Fund are both in discussions to invest more than a billion dollars each .
If the deals go through , they would join recent investors such as General Atlantic , Vista Equity Partners , and Silver Lake , as well as Facebook—which spent $ 5.7 billion for a 9.99 percent stake in the Indian company .
Girls who build .
A group of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working on making ventilators out of car parts for coronavirus patients .
The Afghan teenagers used a motor from a Toyota Corolla and another part from a Honda bike to make their prototype model .
They estimate they can make a functioning ventilator for $ 600 .
The heartwarming project has even won the approval of President Ashraf Ghani .
Read more about it here .
If you guessed the United Nations , you ’ re not entirely wrong .
The organization is part of the U.N. and is based in Geneva .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the names of storms every year .
The first storm of the season always begins with the letter A , and storm names often reflect the language and sensibility of the region in which they occur , the BBC reports .
The most notorious names , such as Katrina and Gustav , are retired .
That ’ s it for this week .
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Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. This week, a deadly super cyclone smashes into India and Bangladesh, Pakistan’s Supreme Court bans coronavirus restrictions, and Afghanistan’s rival leaders form a power-sharing deal.
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Cyclone Amphan Slams India and Bangladesh
At least 80 people have died after a powerful super cyclone tore through the coast of eastern India and Bangladesh on Wednesday, destroying shacks, upending trees and electricity poles, and causing flash floods. The death toll may still rise as rescue teams scour coastal areas to assess the destruction.
Cyclone Amphan could have been far worse. As recently as Monday, Amphan was classified as a Category 5, the highest possible designation for storms, with winds over 156 miles per hour. But Amphan weakened to a Category 2 by landfall, with winds around 100 miles per hour. Officials in India and Bangladesh evacuated more than 3 million residents along the coast of the Bay of Bengal, almost certainly saving tens of thousands of lives.
The last super cyclone to hit India, the 1999 Odisha cyclone, killed more than 10,000 people and displaced many more.
The pandemic made things harder. Both India and Bangladesh surmounted immense odds in safeguarding their coastal residents, many of whom may have been scared to move to government shelters where they risked catching the coronavirus. The pandemic’s real impact in combination with the cyclone will only be seen in the coming weeks, however, as millions set about repairing their homes and renewing their supplies of food and water. The coronavirus has already hit vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, and a period of displacement will increase the chances of transmission across the region.
Kolkata’s damages. This one is personal, because I grew up in Kolkata in the 1980s and 1990s and still have family and friends there. The city is the former capital of the British Raj and has landmarks that are hundreds of years old and often fragile. Images on television and social media tell a story of a shaken metropolis. The storm ripped trees out by their roots, damaging roads, cars, and homes. Flooding has damaged warehouses and led to lost inventory. Some residents will likely spend days without electricity. And it all comes as the city was already reeling from months of inactivity amid a national lockdown.
When I was CNN’s South Asia bureau chief between 2014 and 2018, I covered several natural disasters in the region, but Kolkata was often spared. Not this time. The capital of West Bengal is one of the worst-hit cities, as the eye of the storm passed right by it. For most Kolkatans, this is the worst cyclone in living memory.
Some of Amphan’s impacts may take days and weeks to reveal themselves. When a prominent bridge collapsed in Kolkata in 2016, I wrote at the time that many buildings and bridges are of poor quality because of “lax regulations, rampant corruption, poor building materials, and badly trained workers.” That context is important to keep in mind as structural damages to haphazardly placed buildings and electricity poles—especially in the city’s slums—emerge in the coming days, causing a cascade of other problems.
Climate change. While Amphan is a singular event, one cannot ignore the impact of climate change in the region. As the waters of the Bay of Bengal get warmer, they are more likely to trigger more powerful storms with greater frequency. The matter is compounded by two other factors. First, hundreds of millions of people live in coastal areas, most of them quite poor and residing in weak and densely packed buildings. And second, some of the region’s best natural defenses, such as the mangroves of the Sundarbans, that weaken the impact of storms and sea surges have been eroding over the last few decades because of industrial pollution and man-made construction. As sea levels rise, eastern India and Bangladesh will only become more vulnerable to climate-related disasters.
What We’re Following
Coronavirus cases rise, but not exponentially. The total number of cases in South Asia topped 200,000 today, but it is doubling only around every two weeks, as shown below. By comparison, at the height of the outbreak in New York, cases doubled every three days. But there are several causes for concern. In Pakistan, the country’s Supreme Court ordered the government to lift restrictions, saying the virus “apparently is not a pandemic in Pakistan.” The decision is binding. Across South Asia, which has more Muslims than any other part of the world, the end of Ramadan this weekend marks the beginning of Eid festivities, when people usually travel to visit families and friends. Without restrictions, the virus could easily spread further.
The Afghan power-sharing deal. In a major step for Kabul, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani signed a power-sharing deal with his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah. Each leader will appoint half of the government cabinet. While Ghani will have undivided executive governing authority, Abdullah will take charge of peace efforts with the Taliban. Meanwhile, the U.S. special envoy to the region, Zalmay Khalilzad, met Taliban leaders in Doha, Qatar, on Wednesday and called for a reduction in violence. According to the United Nations, civilian casualties in Afghanistan jumped to 380 in April—up from 208 in the same period last year.
Sri Lanka’s civil war anniversary. On Tuesday, Sri Lankans marked 11 years since the end of the country’s civil war. Rights groups continue to exert pressure on Colombo to investigate allegations of human rights violations in the war. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who served as the defense minister during the conflict, remained defiant this week. “In a small country like ours where our war heroes have sacrificed so much, I will not allow anyone or [any] organization to exert undue pressure on them or harass them,” he said.
Question of the Week
Cyclone Amphan got me wondering: Who names these storms?
A) The United Nations
B) The National Hurricane Center in Miami
C) The World Meteorological Organization
D) The World Health Organization
Scroll down for the answer.
South Asia Inc.
Jio Platforms. It’s almost like investors are racing to join India’s Reliance Industries juggernaut. The Financial Times reports that the U.S. private equity giant KKR is in talks to buy a $1.5 billion stake in Jio Platforms, the Reliance-owned cellular and wireless data company. United Arab Emirates’ Mubadala and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund are both in discussions to invest more than a billion dollars each. If the deals go through, they would join recent investors such as General Atlantic, Vista Equity Partners, and Silver Lake, as well as Facebook—which spent $5.7 billion for a 9.99 percent stake in the Indian company.
Odds and Ends
Girls who build. A group of girls known as the Afghan Dreamers are working on making ventilators out of car parts for coronavirus patients. The Afghan teenagers used a motor from a Toyota Corolla and another part from a Honda bike to make their prototype model. They estimate they can make a functioning ventilator for $600. The heartwarming project has even won the approval of President Ashraf Ghani. Read more about it here.
And the Answer Is…
C) The World Meteorological Organization
If you guessed the United Nations, you’re not entirely wrong. The organization is part of the U.N. and is based in Geneva. The group has regional committees that update the names of storms every year. The first storm of the season always begins with the letter A, and storm names often reflect the language and sensibility of the region in which they occur, the BBC reports. The most notorious names, such as Katrina and Gustav, are retired.
That’s it for this week.