foreignpolicy--2020-05-29--Extremism Is on the Rise in West Africa. Education Is Suffering.

Extremism Is on the Rise in West Africa .
Education Is Suffering .
Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : Children are forced out of school in Burkina Faso as terrorist attacks on education facilities surge , the Pentagon accuses Russia of sending warplanes to Libya , and a plague of locusts has devastated crops in India .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Faso , militant groups aligned with al Qaeda and the Islamic State have stepped up attacks on schools , forcing some 350,000 children to stay home over the past three years .
According to a Human Rights Watch report released on Tuesday , 107 schools have been burned , looted , and destroyed by militants opposed to secular education since 2017 .
Half of the documented attacks took place last year .
“ It ’ s their war against education , ” a teacher told Human Rights Watch .
Fifteen teachers and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks .
The attacks have not been confined to Burkina Faso .
A UNICEF report issued last summer found that 1.9 million children across Central and West Africa had missed school as militant groups opposed to secular education have stepped up their attacks .
Once out of school , children are at greater risk of being recruited by the armed groups or forced into child marriage , Al Jazeera reports .
Uphill battle .
Clashes between security forces and armed groups in Burkina Faso forced over 700,000 people to flee their homes last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regional trend : In the last year alone , there was a fivefold increase in terrorist activity in the Sahel .
In March , Gen. Stephen Townsend , the head of U.S. Africa Command , warned that “ ISIS and al Qaeda are on the march in West Africa.
” Attacks have been particularly acute in the largely ungoverned border area between Mali , Niger , and Burkina Faso .
“ Western , international , and African efforts there are not getting the job done , ” Townsend said .
The general ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considering withdrawing some of its 1,400 forces from the region—part of a wider move to focus U.S. troop deployments on confronting Russia and China .
Unstable partnership .
Despite their ideological opposition , groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State have worked together to take control of swaths of territory in the Sahel , a dynamic that has not been seen elsewhere .
But a recent breakdown in relations between the groups increases the risk of conflict—which could plunge the region into further chaos , as Jacob Zenn and Colin P. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police brutality sparks protests .
Protests broke out in Minneapolis this week and quickly spread to other cities after George Floyd , a black man , died after a white police officer knelt on his neck for several minutes during his arrest .
Floyd ’ s death has fueled public outrage over police killings of African Americans .
In a video of the man ’ s death , Floyd says he can ’ t breathe while onlookers plead with the officer , Derek Chauvin .
On Friday , Chauvin was taken into custody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He and three other officers who were at the scene have been fired .
Protesters burned a Minneapolis police precinct on Thursday after the city ’ s mayor ordered officers to abandon the building , and Gov .
Tim Walz activated the National Guard in a bid to contain the chaos .
In the early hours of Friday , U.S. President Donald Trump described the protesters as “ thugs ” on Twitter—adding , “ [ W ] hen the looting starts , the shooting starts.
” The social media company added a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it violated the social network ’ s rules on glorifying violence , but it remains accessible “ in the public ’ s interest.
” Russian planes in Libyan skies .
On Tuesday , the U.S. Department of Defense accused Russia of sending warplanes to support the forces of Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar , who launched an offensive last year to take the capital of Tripoli from the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord .
The Pentagon ’ s Africa Command said that the MiG-29 fighter jets had been repainted to disguise their country of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different factions in the conflict but in September stepped up its support for Haftar , deploying hundreds of mercenaries to the front lines .
Such public assessments by the Pentagon are rare .
The announcement may have been an attempt to nudge the White House to pay more attention to the conflict , which the Trump administration has largely overlooked since National Security Advisor John Bolton stepped down last year , FP ’ s Jack Detsch reports .
If Russia is able to gain a foothold in bases along the Libyan coast , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NATO member states in Southern Europe .
Showdown over Hong Kong .
The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it no longer considers Hong Kong to be autonomous from China , after Beijing moved to increase its control over the territory through passing a draconian national security law .
The announcement may significantly affect Hong Kong ’ s trade status , currently recognized on a separate basis from the mainland ’ s .
The White House is expected to announce further measures as early as today , including imposing tariffs or tougher export @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kong ’ s status as a global financial center .
As the Chinese economy boomed in recent decades , Hong Kong ’ s share of China ’ s GDP fell from 16 percent in 1997 to just 3 percent—but it still serves as an important gateway for foreign investment .
“ The big question the administration is going to face is whether there is a sweet spot that enables them to apply enough pressure on the Chinese Communist Party that deters them from acting against Hong Kong , and ensures that those steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Hong Kong , ” Michael Fuchs , a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a former Obama administration official , told FP ’ s Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer .
Another plague—of locusts .
Swarms of locusts have descended on central and western India this week , threatening livelihoods and food supply chains as they destroy swaths of crops .
The swarms are the largest to hit India since 1993 , adding to a list of challenges : a recent deadly cyclone , rising coronavirus infections , and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ northern states .
East Africa has also been hit by unusually large swarms of locusts this year .
Scientists say rising temperatures and increased rain have created ideal breeding grounds for the insects , and their threat to crops will only increase as climate change continues .
Suriname ’ s new leadership .
Preliminary results from Monday ’ s parliamentary elections in Suriname point to a victory for the opposition Progressive Reform Party .
The national assembly elects the president , and an opposition victory would bring an end to a decade of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has remained in office despite being convicted in November for his role in the murders of 15 political opponents in the early 1980s .
Bouterse is a fixture of political life in South America ’ s smallest country , leading the military dictatorship that ran the country for much of the 1980s .
He returned to power in 2010 when his party won a majority of seats in parliament .
Murdoch ’ s media empire .
Rupert Murdoch ’ s News Corp. announced on Wednesday that it will stop producing print editions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as advertising revenues have been squeezed by pandemic lockdowns .
In a massive shift , 76 of the papers will now be online only , while 36 will cease to exist .
The scale of job losses to come at News Corp. remains unclear , with the Guardian reporting that it could be in the hundreds .
A Central American first .
Costa Rica became the first country in Central America to legalize same-sex marriage on Tuesday .
Couples celebrated by getting married after the law came into effect at midnight .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first to marry , and their wedding was broadcast on national television .
The move follows a 2018 ruling by Costa Rica ’ s Supreme Court , which found the country ’ s ban on same-sex marriage was discriminatory and unconstitutional and gave lawmakers 18 months to change the law .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com @

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: Children are forced out of school in Burkina Faso as terrorist attacks on education facilities surge, the Pentagon accuses Russia of sending warplanes to Libya, and a plague of locusts has devastated crops in India.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
Growing Extremism Threatens Education
In Burkina Faso, militant groups aligned with al Qaeda and the Islamic State have stepped up attacks on schools, forcing some 350,000 children to stay home over the past three years. According to a Human Rights Watch report released on Tuesday, 107 schools have been burned, looted, and destroyed by militants opposed to secular education since 2017. Half of the documented attacks took place last year. “It’s their war against education,” a teacher told Human Rights Watch. Fifteen teachers and other school employees have been killed in the attacks.
The attacks have not been confined to Burkina Faso. A UNICEF report issued last summer found that 1.9 million children across Central and West Africa had missed school as militant groups opposed to secular education have stepped up their attacks. Once out of school, children are at greater risk of being recruited by the armed groups or forced into child marriage, Al Jazeera reports.
Uphill battle. Clashes between security forces and armed groups in Burkina Faso forced over 700,000 people to flee their homes last year, as part of a broader regional trend: In the last year alone, there was a fivefold increase in terrorist activity in the Sahel. In March, Gen. Stephen Townsend, the head of U.S. Africa Command, warned that “ISIS and al Qaeda are on the march in West Africa.” Attacks have been particularly acute in the largely ungoverned border area between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
“Western, international, and African efforts there are not getting the job done,” Townsend said. The general’s warnings came as the Pentagon is considering withdrawing some of its 1,400 forces from the region—part of a wider move to focus U.S. troop deployments on confronting Russia and China.
Unstable partnership. Despite their ideological opposition, groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State have worked together to take control of swaths of territory in the Sahel, a dynamic that has not been seen elsewhere. But a recent breakdown in relations between the groups increases the risk of conflict—which could plunge the region into further chaos, as Jacob Zenn and Colin P. Clarke write for Foreign Policy.
What We’re Following
U.S. police brutality sparks protests. Protests broke out in Minneapolis this week and quickly spread to other cities after George Floyd, a black man, died after a white police officer knelt on his neck for several minutes during his arrest. Floyd’s death has fueled public outrage over police killings of African Americans. In a video of the man’s death, Floyd says he can’t breathe while onlookers plead with the officer, Derek Chauvin. On Friday, Chauvin was taken into custody and charged with manslaughter and third-degree murder. He and three other officers who were at the scene have been fired.
Protesters burned a Minneapolis police precinct on Thursday after the city’s mayor ordered officers to abandon the building, and Gov. Tim Walz activated the National Guard in a bid to contain the chaos. In the early hours of Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump described the protesters as “thugs” on Twitter—adding, “[W]hen the looting starts, the shooting starts.” The social media company added a label to the tweet, noting that it violated the social network’s rules on glorifying violence, but it remains accessible “in the public’s interest.”
Russian planes in Libyan skies. On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Defense accused Russia of sending warplanes to support the forces of Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who launched an offensive last year to take the capital of Tripoli from the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord. The Pentagon’s Africa Command said that the MiG-29 fighter jets had been repainted to disguise their country of origin. Russia has sought to engage different factions in the conflict but in September stepped up its support for Haftar, deploying hundreds of mercenaries to the front lines.
Such public assessments by the Pentagon are rare. The announcement may have been an attempt to nudge the White House to pay more attention to the conflict, which the Trump administration has largely overlooked since National Security Advisor John Bolton stepped down last year, FP’s Jack Detsch reports. If Russia is able to gain a foothold in bases along the Libyan coast, it could upend the security calculations for NATO member states in Southern Europe.
Showdown over Hong Kong. The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it no longer considers Hong Kong to be autonomous from China, after Beijing moved to increase its control over the territory through passing a draconian national security law. The announcement may significantly affect Hong Kong’s trade status, currently recognized on a separate basis from the mainland’s. The White House is expected to announce further measures as early as today, including imposing tariffs or tougher export controls to attack Beijing by undermining Hong Kong’s status as a global financial center.
As the Chinese economy boomed in recent decades, Hong Kong’s share of China’s GDP fell from 16 percent in 1997 to just 3 percent—but it still serves as an important gateway for foreign investment. “The big question the administration is going to face is whether there is a sweet spot that enables them to apply enough pressure on the Chinese Communist Party that deters them from acting against Hong Kong, and ensures that those steps hurt the CCP and not the people of Hong Kong,” Michael Fuchs, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a former Obama administration official, told FP’s Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer.
Keep an Eye On
Another plague—of locusts. Swarms of locusts have descended on central and western India this week, threatening livelihoods and food supply chains as they destroy swaths of crops. The swarms are the largest to hit India since 1993, adding to a list of challenges: a recent deadly cyclone, rising coronavirus infections, and a heat wave in the country’s northern states. East Africa has also been hit by unusually large swarms of locusts this year. Scientists say rising temperatures and increased rain have created ideal breeding grounds for the insects, and their threat to crops will only increase as climate change continues.
Suriname’s new leadership. Preliminary results from Monday’s parliamentary elections in Suriname point to a victory for the opposition Progressive Reform Party. The national assembly elects the president, and an opposition victory would bring an end to a decade of rule by President Desi Bouterse, who has remained in office despite being convicted in November for his role in the murders of 15 political opponents in the early 1980s.
Bouterse is a fixture of political life in South America’s smallest country, leading the military dictatorship that ran the country for much of the 1980s. He returned to power in 2010 when his party won a majority of seats in parliament.
Murdoch’s media empire. Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. announced on Wednesday that it will stop producing print editions of 112 local and regional newspapers in Australia, as advertising revenues have been squeezed by pandemic lockdowns. In a massive shift, 76 of the papers will now be online only, while 36 will cease to exist. The scale of job losses to come at News Corp. remains unclear, with the Guardian reporting that it could be in the hundreds.
Odds and Ends
A Central American first. Costa Rica became the first country in Central America to legalize same-sex marriage on Tuesday. Couples celebrated by getting married after the law came into effect at midnight. Alexandra Quiros and Dunia Araya were among the first to marry, and their wedding was broadcast on national television. The move follows a 2018 ruling by Costa Rica’s Supreme Court, which found the country’s ban on same-sex marriage was discriminatory and unconstitutional and gave lawmakers 18 months to change the law.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-29--African Leaders, Joined by U.S. Embassies, Condemn Police Killing in Minneapolis

African Leaders , Joined by U.S. Embassies , Condemn Police Killing in Minneapolis African leaders reacted to the killing of a black man in Minneapolis police custody with a mixture of outrage and dismay , prompting two U.S. embassies on the continent to issue unusual statements about the incident and reflecting the global diplomatic fallout of American police violence and racial injustices .
The head of the African Union Commission , Moussa Faki Mahamat , condemned George Floyd ’ s death in a statement , saying he “ firmly reaffirms and reiterates the African Union ’ s rejection of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States of America.
” “ This is one too many .
We may be black , but we are people too , ” another top African Union official , Kwesi Quartey , said in a social media post .
“ Africa demands a full investigation into this killing.
” In a highly unusual move that reflects the degree of distress in the countries they are posted in , the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Uganda also issued statements on Twitter , saying the embassies were “ deeply troubled ” by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that “ [ g ] overnment officials should not operate with impunity in any country.
” Several U.S. diplomats said it is rare for U.S. embassies abroad to weigh in on domestic U.S. issues .
But in this case , the embassies were compelled to respond after seeing how African leaders reacted to Floyd ’ s death with anger and dismay .
“ I think some of these posts had to say something because so many Africans are appalled by the footage , ” one U.S. official said .
Long-standing racial injustices in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Washington ’ s soft-power standing in Africa and its position as a vocal proponent of human rights across the continent .
( The Trump administration was swift to condemn the targeting of African immigrants and students in China in recent months in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic . )
The United States and international human rights watchdogs have also repeatedly condemned issues with excessive force by police in both Kenya and Uganda .
The State Department ’ s 2019 annual report on human rights calls out both Ugandan and Kenyan security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ killings .
Floyd ’ s death at the hands of police and the protests and rioting in Minneapolis that followed showcased how U.S. embassies are often forced to address political strife and injustices in the United States , even if such issues have little or nothing to do with their official missions .
In those cases , several diplomats said , embassies try to strike a careful balance of trying to uphold American values they profess in foreign countries even as those values are strained or undercut at home .
Officials said U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear statements or social media posts with Washington first .
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday called Floyd ’ s killing a “ very sad and tragic death ” and called for an investigation .
But he later followed up with tweets threatening to shoot looters in Minneapolis—posts that were flagged by Twitter as glorifying violence in an unprecedented move for the social media giant .

African leaders reacted to the killing of a black man in Minneapolis police custody with a mixture of outrage and dismay, prompting two U.S. embassies on the continent to issue unusual statements about the incident and reflecting the global diplomatic fallout of American police violence and racial injustices.
African leaders reacted to the killing of a black man in Minneapolis police custody with a mixture of outrage and dismay, prompting two U.S. embassies on the continent to issue unusual statements about the incident and reflecting the global diplomatic fallout of American police violence and racial injustices.
The head of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, condemned George Floyd’s death in a statement, saying he “firmly reaffirms and reiterates the African Union’s rejection of the continuing discriminatory practices against Black citizens of the United States of America.”
“This is one too many. We may be black, but we are people too,” another top African Union official, Kwesi Quartey, said in a social media post. “Africa demands a full investigation into this killing.”
In a highly unusual move that reflects the degree of distress in the countries they are posted in, the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Uganda also issued statements on Twitter, saying the embassies were “deeply troubled” by the death of Floyd in police custody and that “[g]overnment officials should not operate with impunity in any country.”
Several U.S. diplomats said it is rare for U.S. embassies abroad to weigh in on domestic U.S. issues. But in this case, the embassies were compelled to respond after seeing how African leaders reacted to Floyd’s death with anger and dismay. “I think some of these posts had to say something because so many Africans are appalled by the footage,” one U.S. official said.
Long-standing racial injustices in the United States also pose a problem for Washington’s soft-power standing in Africa and its position as a vocal proponent of human rights across the continent. (The Trump administration was swift to condemn the targeting of African immigrants and students in China in recent months in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.)
The United States and international human rights watchdogs have also repeatedly condemned issues with excessive force by police in both Kenya and Uganda. The State Department’s 2019 annual report on human rights calls out both Ugandan and Kenyan security officials for human rights violations and extrajudicial killings.
Floyd’s death at the hands of police and the protests and rioting in Minneapolis that followed showcased how U.S. embassies are often forced to address political strife and injustices in the United States, even if such issues have little or nothing to do with their official missions. In those cases, several diplomats said, embassies try to strike a careful balance of trying to uphold American values they profess in foreign countries even as those values are strained or undercut at home. Officials said U.S. embassies aren’t always required to clear statements or social media posts with Washington first.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday called Floyd’s killing a “very sad and tragic death” and called for an investigation. But he later followed up with tweets threatening to shoot looters in Minneapolis—posts that were flagged by Twitter as glorifying violence in an unprecedented move for the social media giant.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-29--Taliban Leadership in Disarray on Verge of Peace Talks

Taliban Leadership in Disarray on Verge of Peace Talks Control of the Afghan Taliban is in disarray as the coronavirus has swept through the leadership , forcing a number of senior officials to seek treatment and leaving the way open for the son of the group ’ s founder , Mullah Mohammad Omar , to take over as interim leader , according to sources in the Taliban and officials with the Afghan government and Western intelligence .
The illness of senior Taliban leaders and their absence from decision-making come at a critical time for Afghanistan , as the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a bilateral deal struck with the Taliban in February .
Any hint of disunity at the top of the Taliban—and the possibility that it could spill into a violent rivalry—could affect the next phase of the so-called peace process : direct talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government aimed at ending the nearly two-decade-old war .
The Taliban ’ s supreme leader , Haibatullah Akhundzada , has been absent from meetings for some weeks , his place taken by Sirajuddin Haqqani , his deputy and scion of the brutal jihadi Haqqani @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Qaeda , said Antonio Giustozzi , a leading expert on the Taliban at the Royal United Services Institute in London .
But Haqqani has now contracted the coronavirus and is also absent from the leadership mix , Giustozzi said .
“ When Sirajuddin got sick he probably infected everyone else as he was deputizing at meetings for Haibatullah , ” he said .
A Kabul intelligence official , speaking on condition that he not be named , confirmed that members of the Taliban leadership had contracted the coronavirus ; he said it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them .
Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob , the son of the late Mullah Omar , who founded the Taliban , has assumed the role of the Taliban ’ s “ chief of operations , ” replacing Haqqani , according to Taliban officials in the Pakistani city of Quetta as well as Western intelligence sources , who asked not to be identified .
“ Our hero , the son of our great leader , Mullah Yaqoob , is running the entire Taliban operation in Haibatullah ’ s absence , ” an influential senior Taliban commander @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told Foreign Policy .
Mullah Yaqoob has been consolidating his power since losing a bid to succeed his father when Mullah Omar ’ s death , kept secret by a coterie of close aids for more than two years , was revealed in July 2015 .
He was instead appointed to lead the movement ’ s military commission for 15 of Afghanistan ’ s 34 provinces .
The illness of Akhundzada and Haqqani opens a door for Mullah Yaqoob to realize his ambition to take full control of the Taliban .
Officials of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in recent weeks he has extended his military control to 28 provinces .
He is expected to soon take over the remaining six provinces , giving him military control over all of Afghanistan .
“ Yaqoob is popular among the battlefield commanders and so they are willing to accept his leadership , ” a Taliban official in Quetta said , asking not to be named .
Giustozzi said Mullah Yaqoob had close ties to commanders in the country ’ s north , which has helped consolidate his military control .
Mullah Yaqoob is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which supports the peace deal , Giustozzi said .
Riyadh is believed to be funneling money to him to help him consolidate power .
He also has close connections with the Kabul government and intelligence service— seen as useful in ensuring the peace deal is not derailed , he said .
The Taliban sources in Quetta said that since his father ’ s death became public , Mullah Yaqoob has moved to take control of the Taliban ’ s vast income streams , setting up a new financial commission to rival that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid , Gul Agha Ishakzai .
The Taliban ’ s financial strength has grown under his control , with annual income now around $ 1.7 billion , two sources with knowledge of the Taliban ’ s financial affairs said .
The figure can not be independently verified .
Ishakzai is on the United Nations Security Council ’ s sanctions list at number 147 .
He had for many years controlled the revenue streams funding the Taliban ’ s insurgency against the internationally supported Kabul administration and the U.S.-led military coalition that has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has built between Mullah Yaqoob and Ishakzai since the death of Mullah Omar became public .
Mullah Omar ’ s death was kept secret by Ishakzai and Akhtar Mansour , who succeeded him and led the Taliban until he was killed by a U.S. drone strike in May 2016 .
Akhundzada , viewed as a hard-line Islamist , succeeded Mansour .
It is not yet clear if Ishakzai has accepted Mullah Yaqoob ’ s intention to take full control of the Taliban .
The two men are from rival tribes—the Hotak and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Ishakzai .
Ishakzai is believed to have ties to Iran , which has rejected the U.S.-Taliban deal .
While Mullah Yaqoob is regarded as a supporter of the peace process and is being encouraged to remain so by Saudi Arabia , his bid to take control of the Taliban could alter the peace equation if it leads to a power struggle between his Hotak tribe and the Ishakzai .
If intra-Taliban fighting breaks out , each side could commit its resources to resolving the leadership , prioritizing it over dealing with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible outcomes—Mullah Yaqoob will own his position at the top and Ishakzai will accept him as leader , or Ishakzai will gather his forces and attempt to maintain control in his own hands , and if that happens then things will be very bloody , ” one of the Quetta sources said , on condition that he not be named .
As it is , the United States is accelerating its drawdown ; Reuters reported on May 27 that U.S. troop strength has been cut by about 4,400 , to 8,600 , ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Taliban .
The commitment is zero by next May .
The Taliban have extended a three-day cease-fire in their war against Kabul , declared to coincide with this week ’ s Eid holiday .
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani matched the cease-fire .
Giustozzi said the Taliban had also decided on “ a reduction of violence , ” which had escalated since the deal was signed with the United States , following Eid .
Afghan media reported a number of attacks during the cease-fire , though it has largely held .
The Taliban released @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead of Eid , calling on the United States not to squander the chance offered by the deal to end the war .
“ The Islamic Emirate is committed to the agreement … and urges the other side to honour its own commitments and not allow this critical opportunity to go to waste , ” Akhundzada said , using the Taliban ’ s name for Afghanistan .
Many Taliban hard-liners have cited the Feb. 29 agreement with the United States as a victory over Afghanistan ’ s “ occupiers.
” A senior Afghan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preparing for outright war ” once U.S. forces are fully drawdown .
Control of revenue sources—including production and smuggling of drugs and minerals , as well as extortion and taxation of freight and road use—is key to controlling the movement .
Controlling the purse strings is largely based on the personal contacts of whoever runs the Taliban ’ s powerful financial commission .
Mullah Yaqoob is believed to have used his military power to move into regions with lucrative income streams in illicit mining , as well as drugs , taxation of roads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interests .
The Taliban are believed by the U.N. Security Council to earn a minimum of $ 400 million a year from narcotics alone , and a great deal more from principally derived from “ illicit mineral and other resource extraction , taxation , extortion , the sale of commercial and government services and property , and donations from abroad , ” according to a report by its Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team in June 2019 .
A breakdown of current annual revenues seen by Foreign Policy puts income from drugs at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mining and minerals sales including exports at $ 464 million a year .
The income—supplemented by rent-seeking activities in a wide range of sectors including telecommunications and construction , along with real estate holdings and exports of agricultural products other than opium—funds the insurgency .
U.S. Army Gen. John Nicholson said in December 2016 that “ about 60 percent ” of the Taliban ’ s funding came from opium production in Helmand province , where the fight had been hardest for both the United Kingdom and the United States , and where most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produced .
He said the Taliban worked closely with criminal gangs to produce , traffic , and sell opium .
“ The money that ’ s generated from the opium industry is what fuels the insurgency and why we see so much fighting going on in Helmand , ” Nicholson told reporters .
The United Kingdom lost 457 armed forces personnel in Afghanistan , according to the Ministry of Defense , mostly in Helmand .
The United States , which leads the international and NATO coalition in Afghanistan , has recorded more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The peace process initiated by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has faced severe criticism in Afghanistan , as it sidelined the Ghani government and did not include conditions for halting attacks against Afghan forces or other targets .
In the months since the peace agreement was signed , dozens of Afghan fighting forces and civilians have been killed in insurgent attacks .
Following a shocking attack on a maternity hospital earlier this month , in which new mothers and newborn babies were targeted by gunmen , Ghani put his forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Taliban denied they were behind the attack , but analysts say that the Taliban , the Haqqani network , the local franchise of the Islamic State , and other terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan have cross-pollinated and can not be regarded as separate .
The Eid cease-fire is the first since 2018 , which then stoked great hopes among Afghans that the end of the war could be near .
Afghanistan has been at war for more than 40 years , since the Russian invasion of 1979 .
The current phase of fighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 and were quickly driven out of the country by the U.S.-led retaliation for the 9/11 attacks , which were planned and executed by Osama bin Laden while al Qaeda was based in Afghanistan with Mullah Omar ’ s approval .
The Taliban leadership then regrouped over the Pakistan border , with support from the Islamabad government , forming a government-in-exile and fighting to unseat the Kabul administration .

Control of the Afghan Taliban is in disarray as the coronavirus has swept through the leadership, forcing a number of senior officials to seek treatment and leaving the way open for the son of the group’s founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, to take over as interim leader, according to sources in the Taliban and officials with the Afghan government and Western intelligence.
Control of the Afghan Taliban is in disarray as the coronavirus has swept through the leadership, forcing a number of senior officials to seek treatment and leaving the way open for the son of the group’s founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, to take over as interim leader, according to sources in the Taliban and officials with the Afghan government and Western intelligence.
The illness of senior Taliban leaders and their absence from decision-making come at a critical time for Afghanistan, as the United States is drawing down its troops in accordance with a bilateral deal struck with the Taliban in February. Any hint of disunity at the top of the Taliban—and the possibility that it could spill into a violent rivalry—could affect the next phase of the so-called peace process: direct talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government aimed at ending the nearly two-decade-old war.
The Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, has been absent from meetings for some weeks, his place taken by Sirajuddin Haqqani, his deputy and scion of the brutal jihadi Haqqani network, which has links with al Qaeda, said Antonio Giustozzi, a leading expert on the Taliban at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
But Haqqani has now contracted the coronavirus and is also absent from the leadership mix, Giustozzi said. “When Sirajuddin got sick he probably infected everyone else as he was deputizing at meetings for Haibatullah,” he said.
A Kabul intelligence official, speaking on condition that he not be named, confirmed that members of the Taliban leadership had contracted the coronavirus; and it was believed the supreme leader, Akhundzada, was among them. Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of the late Mullah Omar, who founded the Taliban, has assumed the role of the Taliban’s “chief of operations,” replacing Haqqani, according to Taliban officials in the Pakistani city of Quetta as well as Western intelligence sources, who asked not to be identified.
“Our hero, the son of our great leader, Mullah Yaqoob, is running the entire Taliban operation in Haibatullah’s absence,” an influential senior Taliban commander, Maulama Muhammad Ali Jan Ahmad, told Foreign Policy.
Mullah Yaqoob has been consolidating his power since losing a bid to succeed his father when Mullah Omar’s death, kept secret by a coterie of close aids for more than two years, was revealed in July 2015. He was instead appointed to lead the movement’s military commission for 15 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The illness of Akhundzada and Haqqani opens a door for Mullah Yaqoob to realize his ambition to take full control of the Taliban. Officials of the insurgent leadership in Quetta said that in recent weeks he has extended his military control to 28 provinces. He is expected to soon take over the remaining six provinces, giving him military control over all of Afghanistan.
“Yaqoob is popular among the battlefield commanders and so they are willing to accept his leadership,” a Taliban official in Quetta said, asking not to be named. Giustozzi said Mullah Yaqoob had close ties to commanders in the country’s north, which has helped consolidate his military control.
Mullah Yaqoob is known to have links to Saudi Arabia, which supports the peace deal, Giustozzi said. Riyadh is believed to be funneling money to him to help him consolidate power. He also has close connections with the Kabul government and intelligence service— seen as useful in ensuring the peace deal is not derailed, he said.
The Taliban sources in Quetta said that since his father’s death became public, Mullah Yaqoob has moved to take control of the Taliban’s vast income streams, setting up a new financial commission to rival that of his late father’s close aid, Gul Agha Ishakzai. The Taliban’s financial strength has grown under his control, with annual income now around $1.7 billion, two sources with knowledge of the Taliban’s financial affairs said. The figure cannot be independently verified.
Ishakzai is on the United Nations Security Council’s sanctions list at number 147. He had for many years controlled the revenue streams funding the Taliban’s insurgency against the internationally supported Kabul administration and the U.S.-led military coalition that has been fighting in Afghanistan since 2001.
Resentment has built between Mullah Yaqoob and Ishakzai since the death of Mullah Omar became public. Mullah Omar’s death was kept secret by Ishakzai and Akhtar Mansour, who succeeded him and led the Taliban until he was killed by a U.S. drone strike in May 2016. Akhundzada, viewed as a hard-line Islamist, succeeded Mansour.
It is not yet clear if Ishakzai has accepted Mullah Yaqoob’s intention to take full control of the Taliban. The two men are from rival tribes—the Hotak and the Ishakzai. Mansour had tribal links to the Ishakzai. Ishakzai is believed to have ties to Iran, which has rejected the U.S.-Taliban deal.
While Mullah Yaqoob is regarded as a supporter of the peace process and is being encouraged to remain so by Saudi Arabia, his bid to take control of the Taliban could alter the peace equation if it leads to a power struggle between his Hotak tribe and the Ishakzai. If intra-Taliban fighting breaks out, each side could commit its resources to resolving the leadership, prioritizing it over dealing with the Afghan government.
“There are two possible outcomes—Mullah Yaqoob will own his position at the top and Ishakzai will accept him as leader, or Ishakzai will gather his forces and attempt to maintain control in his own hands, and if that happens then things will be very bloody,” one of the Quetta sources said, on condition that he not be named.
As it is, the United States is accelerating its drawdown; Reuters reported on May 27 that U.S. troop strength has been cut by about 4,400, to 8,600, ahead of the schedule agreed to with the Taliban. The commitment is zero by next May. The Taliban have extended a three-day cease-fire in their war against Kabul, declared to coincide with this week’s Eid holiday.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani matched the cease-fire. Giustozzi said the Taliban had also decided on “a reduction of violence,” which had escalated since the deal was signed with the United States, following Eid. Afghan media reported a number of attacks during the cease-fire, though it has largely held.
The Taliban released a statement by Akhundzada last week, ahead of Eid, calling on the United States not to squander the chance offered by the deal to end the war. “The Islamic Emirate is committed to the agreement … and urges the other side to honour its own commitments and not allow this critical opportunity to go to waste,” Akhundzada said, using the Taliban’s name for Afghanistan.
Many Taliban hard-liners have cited the Feb. 29 agreement with the United States as a victory over Afghanistan’s “occupiers.” A senior Afghan official said the insurgents were already “preparing for outright war” once U.S. forces are fully drawdown.
Control of revenue sources—including production and smuggling of drugs and minerals, as well as extortion and taxation of freight and road use—is key to controlling the movement. Controlling the purse strings is largely based on the personal contacts of whoever runs the Taliban’s powerful financial commission. Mullah Yaqoob is believed to have used his military power to move into regions with lucrative income streams in illicit mining, as well as drugs, taxation of roads and freight companies, and other business interests.
The Taliban are believed by the U.N. Security Council to earn a minimum of $400 million a year from narcotics alone, and a great deal more from principally derived from “illicit mineral and other resource extraction, taxation, extortion, the sale of commercial and government services and property, and donations from abroad,” according to a report by its Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team in June 2019.
A breakdown of current annual revenues seen by Foreign Policy puts income from drugs at $416 million, and income from mining and minerals sales including exports at $464 million a year. The income—supplemented by rent-seeking activities in a wide range of sectors including telecommunications and construction, along with real estate holdings and exports of agricultural products other than opium—funds the insurgency.
U.S. Army Gen. John Nicholson said in December 2016 that “about 60 percent” of the Taliban’s funding came from opium production in Helmand province, where the fight had been hardest for both the United Kingdom and the United States, and where most of the world’s opium is produced. He said the Taliban worked closely with criminal gangs to produce, traffic, and sell opium.
“The money that’s generated from the opium industry is what fuels the insurgency and why we see so much fighting going on in Helmand,” Nicholson told reporters.
The United Kingdom lost 457 armed forces personnel in Afghanistan, according to the Ministry of Defense, mostly in Helmand. The United States, which leads the international and NATO coalition in Afghanistan, has recorded more than 2,200 military deaths in Afghanistan since 2001.
The peace process initiated by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has faced severe criticism in Afghanistan, as it sidelined the Ghani government and did not include conditions for halting attacks against Afghan forces or other targets. In the months since the peace agreement was signed, dozens of Afghan fighting forces and civilians have been killed in insurgent attacks.
Following a shocking attack on a maternity hospital earlier this month, in which new mothers and newborn babies were targeted by gunmen, Ghani put his forces back on an offensive footing. The Taliban denied they were behind the attack, but analysts say that the Taliban, the Haqqani network, the local franchise of the Islamic State, and other terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan have cross-pollinated and cannot be regarded as separate.
The Eid cease-fire is the first since 2018, which then stoked great hopes among Afghans that the end of the war could be near. Afghanistan has been at war for more than 40 years, since the Russian invasion of 1979. The current phase of fighting is America’s longest war.
The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 and were quickly driven out of the country by the U.S.-led retaliation for the 9/11 attacks, which were planned and executed by Osama bin Laden while al Qaeda was based in Afghanistan with Mullah Omar’s approval. The Taliban leadership then regrouped over the Pakistan border, with support from the Islamabad government, forming a government-in-exile and fighting to unseat the Kabul administration.
May 30: This story was updated with news of the supreme leader contracting the virus.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-29--Why Are Stocks Soaring in the Middle of a Pandemic?

The contrast seems grotesque .
A deadly pandemic has shut down the global economy and left millions of workers furloughed , fired , or stranded without gigs .
The future for most businesses looks uncertain to dismal .
Yet U.S. stock indices are near all-time highs , at giddy valuations comparable to the 2000 dot-com bubble and 1929 .
Foreign Policy researched but could not find a moment in financial history that remotely resembles today—so we asked a panel of leading experts to help us make sense of the markets , and what their state tells us about the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the World Through Pre-Pandemic Lenses by Diane Swonk , the chief economist at Grant Thornton .
It is hard to reconcile the rich pricing and resilience of the stock market with the devastation brought on by the pandemic .
One reason for the dissonance is that the value of the major stock indices is determined by fewer firms—and is less reflective of overall economic conditions—than ever before .
The indices are heavily weighted by technology firms , many of which are better positioned to weather and even benefit from the pandemic than companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profits will be much smaller than before the pandemic—and will remain that way for a long time .
The U.S. Federal Reserve ’ s aggressive actions to stop a credit market meltdown in March are indirectly providing support for stock prices .
There are other reasons for U.S. equity market strength : Investors fleeing emerging markets see the S & P 500 Index as a safe haven , just as investors fled to the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury bonds during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis .
This appears to reflect investors ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ correct downward much , which could be a misplaced bet .
Perhaps most worrisome , many investors still see the world through pre-pandemic-tinted lenses .
They take previous recessions as a benchmark and expect profits to rebound as in the past—and don ’ t see the much larger and longer-term challenges created by COVID-19 , including our need to maintain social distancing in the future .
They would be better served to view the world with clear eyes : Both the economy and corporate profits will be much smaller than before the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long time .
Corporate bankruptcies and consolidation will likely accelerate , which could further derail the rosy scenarios .
A little more humility and a little less hubris from Wall Street would be welcome given the magnitude of the devastation we are enduring now and are likely to grapple with for some time to come .
Nothing in Financial History Compares by David Rosenberg , the president and chief economist of Rosenberg Research .
This is the mother of all liquidity-induced equity market rallies .
Nothing in financial history compares .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy reopening , and certainly not about the deep economic contraction coming to an end .
It is all about massive amounts of liquidity provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve .
Look at the timing and numbers , and it becomes obvious : Since the end of March , the Fed ’ s balance sheet has expanded by $ 3 trillion—twice the expansion that took place at the depths of the 2008-2009 Great Recession .
It just so happens that over the same period , the S & P 500 market capitalization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion , hand in hand with the Fed ’ s balance sheet .
In fact , statistically speaking , the correlation between the equity market and the Fed balance sheet has now crossed above 90 percent , even higher than the already close relationship between equity prices and the Fed ’ s quantitative easing programs between 2009 and 2013 .
Conversely , the correlation between the S & P 500 and the performance of the real economy over this interval is close to zero .
So current stock prices have nothing to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed liquidity .
Wall Street Is Flourishing While Main Street Is Suffering by Mohamed A. El-Erian , chief economic advisor at Allianz and the designated president of the University of Cambridge ’ s Queens ’ College .
Main Street and Wall Street seem to be on different planets .
More than 40 million Americans , or about a quarter of the labor force , have lost their jobs , and the economy is set to contract by as much as 30 or 40 percent during the second quarter—despite some $ 6 trillion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , after an initial fall , major stock market indices have staged a remarkable recovery.The more the markets rely on the Fed , the less the economy will be able to sustain high growth and robust job creation .
What is driving markets is a bet investors believe they can ’ t lose : They win if—based on the notion that stock markets can see past the short term—the economy quickly returns to normal ; they also win if it doesn ’ t , given that the U.S. Federal Reserve has repeatedly demonstrated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to backstop markets .
After all , what is more reassuring than a buyer with a seemingly endless appetite and a money-printing press to boot ?
As compelling as this bet appears to many investors , it should be worrisome for those of us who care about longer-term inclusive prosperity , sustainability , genuine financial stability , and the broad buy-in by society that ’ s needed to support all this .
The more the markets ignore economic and business fundamentals and rely on the Fed , the more they will struggle to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The crucial role played by equity prices in signaling which companies have the best prospects is eroded .
This undermines productivity growth and makes the economy less able to sustain high growth and robust job creation .
Only a few months into this tragic COVID-19 shock , there are already concerns that Wall Street is once again flourishing while Main Street is suffering , heightening worries about a further rise in an already large inequality of income , wealth , and opportunity .
If current asset prices fail to be validated by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not just of the economy and markets but of institutions and society as well will be at risk .
by Adam Posen , the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics .
Average investors are right to ignore stock market swings and should tell their elected officials to do the same .
Movements in overall equity prices have little direct impact on economic growth and rarely forecast future developments .
If broad stock market moves have any meaning , it is as a barometer of the share of GDP going to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ listed companies.Today ’ s market exuberance may seem grotesque , but rising share prices reflect a grim underlying reality .
Those profits may have nothing to do with the welfare of citizens or the overall economy and everything to do with the way political decisions and technology drive redistribution .
Deregulation and lax enforcement can increase profits without creating growth and weaken the market power of workers and consumers .
Network effects , especially those associated with the internet economy , may entrench the profitability of a few large firms against smaller competitors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces even stronger .
Workers are scared if not unemployed ; networked companies are becoming more critical to daily life ; large internet-based retailers and service providers are stepping in while small local companies close .
Today ’ s market exuberance may seem grotesque , but the rising share prices of listed companies reflect the grim underlying reality .
Taxes and regulation are the only way to change that .
by Eduardo Porter , an economics reporter at the New York Times and the author of American Poison : How Racial Hostility Destroyed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to believe that the price of the stocks they peddle somehow represents the value of a business or the state of the economy .
Nonsense .
These days , the price of stocks has mostly been a function of policy at the U.S. Federal Reserve : When the Fed unleashes waves of money on the economy , that money seeks assets to buy.The biggest risk to equity markets is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may take the punch bowl away .
Takeaway 1 : It would be a mistake to conclude that markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the economy ready to bounce back sharply in a few months .
Markets have no clue .
And it likely won ’ t be so rosy .
Takeaway 2 : Barring another calamity—an even more devastating second wave of COVID-19 , for example—the biggest risk to equity markets is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may take the punch bowl away .
As long as the Fed keeps buying bonds hand over fist , depressing bond yields and flooding markets in liquidity , equities will defy the economic downturn .
Indeed , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past , investors stretching for yield have piled into all sorts of alternative assets , from emerging market debt and equities to mortgage-backed bonds .
Today , bets such as these seem outlandish , given the enormous risks .
But give the markets time .
Not Even Remotely All in This Together by Trevor Jackson , an assistant professor of economic history at George Washington University .
In 1977 , the radical economist Robert Rowthorn argued that inflation could be thought of as the price governments paid for social peace .
That decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system imposed a high price for social peace , in the form of persistent inflation .
The subsequent “ Great Moderation ” from the late 1980s to 2007 was an era of low inflation , with broken labor unions , abundant credit , and the end of any credible communist threat .
Social peace was cheap.A world with guaranteed income for capital and unprecedented unemployment for labor tells us about the relative power of each .
Since 2008 , central bank policies have produced inflation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endured a lost decade of unemployment and stagnant wages .
Never before this spring have so many people lost their jobs so quickly , and never before have central banks stepped in to provide so much liquidity to financial markets with no obvious limit .
A world with guaranteed income for capital and unprecedented unemployment for labor tells us about the relative power of each : It has become very expensive to buy social peace from capital , while labor can be offered next to nothing .
That contradiction has lasted for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is what the surge in asset prices is telling us .
But it can not last forever .

Diane Swonk, David Rosenberg, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Adam Posen, Eduardo Porter and Trevor Jackson

The charging bull on Wall Street is decked out with a facemask in New York City on May 19. TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images
The contrast seems grotesque. A deadly pandemic has shut down the global economy and left millions of workers furloughed, fired, or stranded without gigs. The future for most businesses looks uncertain to dismal. Yet U.S. stock indices are near all-time highs, at giddy valuations comparable to the 2000 dot-com bubble and 1929.
Foreign Policy researched but could not find a moment in financial history that remotely resembles today—so we asked a panel of leading experts to help us make sense of the markets, and what their state tells us about the economy and society going forward.—Stefan Theil, deputy editor
Investors See the World Through Pre-Pandemic Lenses
by Diane Swonk, the chief economist at Grant Thornton.
It is hard to reconcile the rich pricing and resilience of the stock market with the devastation brought on by the pandemic. One reason for the dissonance is that the value of the major stock indices is determined by fewer firms—and is less reflective of overall economic conditions—than ever before. The indices are heavily weighted by technology firms, many of which are better positioned to weather and even benefit from the pandemic than companies in other industries.Both the economy and corporate profits will be much smaller than before the pandemic—and will remain that way for a long time.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive actions to stop a credit market meltdown in March are indirectly providing support for stock prices. There are other reasons for U.S. equity market strength: Investors fleeing emerging markets see the S&P 500 Index as a safe haven, just as investors fled to the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury bonds during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. This appears to reflect investors’ hopes that U.S. stocks won’t correct downward much, which could be a misplaced bet.
Perhaps most worrisome, many investors still see the world through pre-pandemic-tinted lenses. They take previous recessions as a benchmark and expect profits to rebound as in the past—and don’t see the much larger and longer-term challenges created by COVID-19, including our need to maintain social distancing in the future. They would be better served to view the world with clear eyes: Both the economy and corporate profits will be much smaller than before the pandemic and will remain that way for a long time.
Corporate bankruptcies and consolidation will likely accelerate, which could further derail the rosy scenarios. A little more humility and a little less hubris from Wall Street would be welcome given the magnitude of the devastation we are enduring now and are likely to grapple with for some time to come.
Nothing in Financial History Compares
by David Rosenberg, the president and chief economist of Rosenberg Research.
This is the mother of all liquidity-induced equity market rallies. Nothing in financial history compares. This is not about vaccine hopes, not about the economy reopening, and certainly not about the deep economic contraction coming to an end.
It is all about massive amounts of liquidity provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Look at the timing and numbers, and it becomes obvious: Since the end of March, the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by $3 trillion—twice the expansion that took place at the depths of the 2008-2009 Great Recession. It just so happens that over the same period, the S&P 500 market capitalization has jumped nearly in lockstep—by $2.8 trillion, hand in hand with the Fed’s balance sheet. In fact, statistically speaking, the correlation between the equity market and the Fed balance sheet has now crossed above 90 percent, even higher than the already close relationship between equity prices and the Fed’s quantitative easing programs between 2009 and 2013.
Conversely, the correlation between the S&P 500 and the performance of the real economy over this interval is close to zero. So current stock prices have nothing to do with the economy—but everything to do with Fed liquidity.
Wall Street Is Flourishing While Main Street Is Suffering
by Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz and the designated president of the University of Cambridge’s Queens’ College.
Main Street and Wall Street seem to be on different planets. More than 40 million Americans, or about a quarter of the labor force, have lost their jobs, and the economy is set to contract by as much as 30 or 40 percent during the second quarter—despite some $6 trillion of emergency fiscal and monetary intervention. Yet, after an initial fall, major stock market indices have staged a remarkable recovery.The more the markets rely on the Fed, the less the economy will be able to sustain high growth and robust job creation.
What is driving markets is a bet investors believe they can’t lose: They win if—based on the notion that stock markets can see past the short term—the economy quickly returns to normal; they also win if it doesn’t, given that the U.S. Federal Reserve has repeatedly demonstrated that it is both willing and able to backstop markets. After all, what is more reassuring than a buyer with a seemingly endless appetite and a money-printing press to boot?
As compelling as this bet appears to many investors, it should be worrisome for those of us who care about longer-term inclusive prosperity, sustainability, genuine financial stability, and the broad buy-in by society that’s needed to support all this.
The more the markets ignore economic and business fundamentals and rely on the Fed, the more they will struggle to efficiently allocate resources throughout the economy. The crucial role played by equity prices in signaling which companies have the best prospects is eroded. This undermines productivity growth and makes the economy less able to sustain high growth and robust job creation.
Only a few months into this tragic COVID-19 shock, there are already concerns that Wall Street is once again flourishing while Main Street is suffering, heightening worries about a further rise in an already large inequality of income, wealth, and opportunity. If current asset prices fail to be validated by a decisive economic recovery, the longer-term well-being not just of the economy and markets but of institutions and society as well will be at risk.
Ignore the Stock Markets
by Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Average investors are right to ignore stock market swings and should tell their elected officials to do the same. Movements in overall equity prices have little direct impact on economic growth and rarely forecast future developments. If broad stock market moves have any meaning, it is as a barometer of the share of GDP going to the profits of a small set of publicly listed companies.Today’s market exuberance may seem grotesque, but rising share prices reflect a grim underlying reality.
Those profits may have nothing to do with the welfare of citizens or the overall economy and everything to do with the way political decisions and technology drive redistribution. Deregulation and lax enforcement can increase profits without creating growth and weaken the market power of workers and consumers. Network effects, especially those associated with the internet economy, may entrench the profitability of a few large firms against smaller competitors and newcomers.
The pandemic makes these forces even stronger. Workers are scared if not unemployed; networked companies are becoming more critical to daily life; large internet-based retailers and service providers are stepping in while small local companies close. Today’s market exuberance may seem grotesque, but the rising share prices of listed companies reflect the grim underlying reality. Taxes and regulation are the only way to change that.
Equities Will Defy the Downturn
by Eduardo Porter, an economics reporter at the New York Times and the author of American Poison: How Racial Hostility Destroyed Our Promise.
Wall Street types like to believe that the price of the stocks they peddle somehow represents the value of a business or the state of the economy. Nonsense. These days, the price of stocks has mostly been a function of policy at the U.S. Federal Reserve: When the Fed unleashes waves of money on the economy, that money seeks assets to buy.The biggest risk to equity markets is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may take the punch bowl away.
Takeaway 1: It would be a mistake to conclude that markets believe this recession will be V-shaped, with the economy ready to bounce back sharply in a few months. Markets have no clue. And it likely won’t be so rosy. Takeaway 2: Barring another calamity—an even more devastating second wave of COVID-19, for example—the biggest risk to equity markets is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may take the punch bowl away. As long as the Fed keeps buying bonds hand over fist, depressing bond yields and flooding markets in liquidity, equities will defy the economic downturn.
Indeed, who knows what will follow? In the past, investors stretching for yield have piled into all sorts of alternative assets, from emerging market debt and equities to mortgage-backed bonds. Today, bets such as these seem outlandish, given the enormous risks. But give the markets time.
Not Even Remotely All in This Together
by Trevor Jackson, an assistant professor of economic history at George Washington University.
In 1977, the radical economist Robert Rowthorn argued that inflation could be thought of as the price governments paid for social peace. That decade, oil shocks, political unrest, and the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system imposed a high price for social peace, in the form of persistent inflation. The subsequent “Great Moderation” from the late 1980s to 2007 was an era of low inflation, with broken labor unions, abundant credit, and the end of any credible communist threat. Social peace was cheap.A world with guaranteed income for capital and unprecedented unemployment for labor tells us about the relative power of each.
Since 2008, central bank policies have produced inflation again—but only in asset prices—while workers have endured a lost decade of unemployment and stagnant wages. Never before this spring have so many people lost their jobs so quickly, and never before have central banks stepped in to provide so much liquidity to financial markets with no obvious limit. A world with guaranteed income for capital and unprecedented unemployment for labor tells us about the relative power of each: It has become very expensive to buy social peace from capital, while labor can be offered next to nothing. That contradiction has lasted for a decade and intensified this year. That is what the surge in asset prices is telling us. But it cannot last forever.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-29--Victim of Wartime Sexual Slavery Points Finger at Korean Aid Agency

SEOUL—A South Korean organization that helps women who were forced into sexual slavery for the Japanese military during World War II has come under scrutiny in recent weeks for some of its financial dealings , in another twist to the long and painful saga of the so-called “ comfort women.
” One of the few remaining survivors of this wartime slavery , 91-year-old Lee Yong-soo , accused the organization of using the survivors and their stories to collect public donations but spending the money on things that don ’ t actually benefit the victims .
Lee presented no evidence against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issues of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan .
But her remarks served to reopen an old war wound that still mars relations between South Korea and Japan .
They also triggered investigations into the Korean Council by news sites , one of which reported that the organization purchased a two-story house in 2013 for well above market price .
The house has since been sold at about half the purchase price .
The Korean Council has admitted to “ accounting errors ” but has denied allegations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believed that the Korean Council represented the victims ’ position .
However , Ms. Lee ’ s comments made it clear that it is not the case .
Now we are not sure what to believe and what we must do to solve the historical problem , ” Choi Eunmi , an associate research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies , told Foreign Policy .
She said the ordeal could make it more difficult for South Korea to negotiate a long-delayed settlement to the sexual slavery issue with Japan .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 , calling on Japan to pay 1 billion yen ( around $ 9.3 million ) , issue a formal apology from Japan ’ s prime minister , and accept “ deep responsibility ” for the issue .
The deal heralded a new era in relations between South Korea and Japan .
But it fell through after South Korean President Park Geun-hye was ousted .
The current president , Moon Jae-in , has rejected the terms , saying the negotiations were conducted without input from the victims and the Korean public .
Precisely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moment is unclear .
Last year , the speaker of South Korea ’ s parliament suggested a solution that involved collecting donations from both countries that would go to the victims of sexual slavery and forced labor .
But the proposal drew public criticism and is unlikely to pass when the parliament reconvenes in June .
Some in Japan have portrayed South Korea as too heavily focused on the financial aspects of any possible deal .
The scandal surrounding the Korean Council could sharpen that perception .
“ Of course the Japanese right-wing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ badly used funding at the Korean Council .
After all , this view in Japan has always maintained that the Koreans are in it only for the money , ” Alexis Dudden , an expert on Japan-Korea relations at the University of Connecticut , told Foreign Policy in an email .
The conservative Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun has highlighted the story on its pages , referring to the Korean Council as sharply anti-Japanese .
The scandal remains mainly a domestic issue .
But the history it invokes has a way of infecting contemporary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a South Korean court fined Japanese companies in late 2018 for forced labor practices during World War II , Tokyo imposed export restrictions on certain goods used primarily in South Korea ’ s semiconductor industry .
In response , Korean civil society groups encouraged businesses to boycott Japanese companies .
The coronavirus has given the two countries another issue to fight over : travel restrictions .
South Korea suspended visa-waiver programs with Japan in response to the pandemic .
Tokyo responded by banning entry to people flying in from South Korea .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these three or four years , the relationship has gotten worse .
And of course … regional peace is closely related to the governments ’ relationship , ” said Lee Mi-hyeon , an activist at a weekly protest outside the Japanese Embassy in Seoul .
Even gestures of kindness have ended up creating tension .
This month , a city government in South Korea ’ s North Gyeongsang province sent personal protective equipment and other supplies to cities in Japan .
But some Korean residents responded with criticism .
Lee , whose complaints @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ordeal , says she ’ d like to see young Koreans and Japanese meeting to discuss their fraught history .
“ Korea and Japan are neighbors .
Our students eventually will be the owners of the countries .
So these students need to know why we need an apology and compensation , ” Lee said at a news conference this week .
“ The students are the ones who will resolve the issue , ” she said .
Lee is one of just 17 remaining women registered with the South Korean government as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those women and girls who were forced into sexual servitude for Japanese troops during World War II .
She was shipped off to a kamikaze unit in Taiwan when she was 14 years old .
“ I said what I had to say , and I will no longer be used , ” she told the South Korean newspaper Joongang Ilbo .

SEOUL—A South Korean organization that helps women who were forced into sexual slavery for the Japanese military during World War II has come under scrutiny in recent weeks for some of its financial dealings, in another twist to the long and painful saga of the so-called “comfort women.”
SEOUL—A South Korean organization that helps women who were forced into sexual slavery for the Japanese military during World War II has come under scrutiny in recent weeks for some of its financial dealings, in another twist to the long and painful saga of the so-called “comfort women.”
One of the few remaining survivors of this wartime slavery, 91-year-old Lee Yong-soo, accused the organization of using the survivors and their stories to collect public donations but spending the money on things that don’t actually benefit the victims.
Lee presented no evidence against the group, known as the Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issues of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan. But her remarks served to reopen an old war wound that still mars relations between South Korea and Japan.
They also triggered investigations into the Korean Council by news sites, one of which reported that the organization purchased a two-story house in 2013 for well above market price. The house has since been sold at about half the purchase price.
The Korean Council has admitted to “accounting errors” but has denied allegations of embezzlement and misappropriation.
“We believed that the Korean Council represented the victims’ position. However, Ms. Lee’s comments made it clear that it is not the case. Now we are not sure what to believe and what we must do to solve the historical problem,” Choi Eunmi, an associate research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, told Foreign Policy.
She said the ordeal could make it more difficult for South Korea to negotiate a long-delayed settlement to the sexual slavery issue with Japan.
The two countries reached a tentative agreement in 2015, calling on Japan to pay 1 billion yen (around $9.3 million), issue a formal apology from Japan’s prime minister, and accept “deep responsibility” for the issue. The deal heralded a new era in relations between South Korea and Japan.
But it fell through after South Korean President Park Geun-hye was ousted. The current president, Moon Jae-in, has rejected the terms, saying the negotiations were conducted without input from the victims and the Korean public.
Precisely how much negotiating is underway at this moment is unclear. Last year, the speaker of South Korea’s parliament suggested a solution that involved collecting donations from both countries that would go to the victims of sexual slavery and forced labor. But the proposal drew public criticism and is unlikely to pass when the parliament reconvenes in June.
Some in Japan have portrayed South Korea as too heavily focused on the financial aspects of any possible deal. The scandal surrounding the Korean Council could sharpen that perception.
“Of course the Japanese right-wing crowd is all over the story about badly used funding at the Korean Council. After all, this view in Japan has always maintained that the Koreans are in it only for the money,” Alexis Dudden, an expert on Japan-Korea relations at the University of Connecticut, told Foreign Policy in an email.
The conservative Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun has highlighted the story on its pages, referring to the Korean Council as sharply anti-Japanese.
The scandal remains mainly a domestic issue. But the history it invokes has a way of infecting contemporary relations between the two countries.
When a South Korean court fined Japanese companies in late 2018 for forced labor practices during World War II, Tokyo imposed export restrictions on certain goods used primarily in South Korea’s semiconductor industry. In response, Korean civil society groups encouraged businesses to boycott Japanese companies.
The coronavirus has given the two countries another issue to fight over: travel restrictions. South Korea suspended visa-waiver programs with Japan in response to the pandemic. Tokyo responded by banning entry to people flying in from South Korea.
“It’s bad, and in these three or four years, the relationship has gotten worse. And of course … regional peace is closely related to the governments’ relationship,” said Lee Mi-hyeon, an activist at a weekly protest outside the Japanese Embassy in Seoul.
Even gestures of kindness have ended up creating tension. This month, a city government in South Korea’s North Gyeongsang province sent personal protective equipment and other supplies to cities in Japan. But some Korean residents responded with criticism.
Lee, whose complaints against the Korean Council launched the latest ordeal, says she’d like to see young Koreans and Japanese meeting to discuss their fraught history.
“Korea and Japan are neighbors. Our students eventually will be the owners of the countries. So these students need to know why we need an apology and compensation,” Lee said at a news conference this week.
“The students are the ones who will resolve the issue,” she said.
Lee is one of just 17 remaining women registered with the South Korean government as former comfort women—a euphemism used to describe those women and girls who were forced into sexual servitude for Japanese troops during World War II. She was shipped off to a kamikaze unit in Taiwan when she was 14 years old.
“I said what I had to say, and I will no longer be used,” she told the South Korean newspaper Joongang Ilbo.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-29--Spain’s Right Wing Sees Coronavirus Crisis as Opportunity

Spain ’ s right-wing politicians are blaming a series of feminist rallies held in March for spreading the coronavirus , which has claimed more than 27,000 lives nationwide .
While any mass gatherings in early March—from protests to soccer matches—could have served as vectors for the spread of COVID-19 , Spanish conservatives have focused their criticism on the International Women ’ s Day protests .
It is a political point-scoring strategy that could further polarize Spain ’ s gender equality debate .
It also threatens to deepen the ideological divisions that have worsened with the rise of the far-right Vox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in parliament after elections in November 2019 .
Equality campaigners say the focus on the March 8 rallies —known as the “ 8M ” protests in Spain—is part of a growing backlash against feminism that could stall progress on women ’ s rights .
The protests are central to a left-aligned feminist movement that has surged in Spain over the last two years , calling for action on issues from sexual violence to equal pay .
Vox has taken direct aim at the feminist agenda while accusing activists of stoking hatred against men @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a propaganda tool of the Socialist-led coalition government .
This year ’ s rallies were particularly significant for the left .
They took place days after the new government approved a landmark bill reforming Spain ’ s sexual assault laws to redefine rape as any sex without consent .
Around 120,000 people marched in Madrid on March 8 , chanting “ No es no , lo demás es violación ” — “ No means no , everything else is rape.
” The scene was repeated across Spain .
Six days later , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus cases escalated and imposed a strict lockdown .
Vox and the main opposition center-right People ’ s Party have since framed the rallies as a principal source of contagion and accused Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez ’ s left-wing government of putting its feminist credentials above public health .
The Madrid regional leader for the People ’ s Party , Isabel Díaz Ayuso , dubbed the marches in the capital “ Spain ’ s biggest infectodrome.
” The party ’ s health spokesperson said that by encouraging people to attend the 8M demonstrations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an “ epidemiological bomb.
” The comments echo conservative news sites , which have also portrayed the rallies as a spark for Spain ’ s outbreak .
“ The 8M feminist protests continue to claim victims , ” the right-wing media outlet Okdiario said after the women ’ s rights campaigner África Lorente Castillo died from COVID-19 on May 1—linking Lorente ’ s death to the march in Catalonia that she led 10 days before she was hospitalized .
Some right-wing politicians and their supporters are using the crisis as an opportunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The attempt to “ demonize ” activists taps into the wider social desire to attribute blame for Spain ’ s coronavirus outbreak , said Viviana Waisman , the CEO and founder of the women ’ s rights campaign group Women ’ s Link Worldwide .
“ They ’ re creating a narrative around a common enemy , ” she said .
The health ministry had confirmed 10 deaths from COVID-19 and hundreds of infections on the day of the protests , but they were not the only crowded event to go ahead .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporters on March 8 .
Major soccer matches took place on the same day , including a clash between Real Madrid and Betis in front of packed crowds in Seville .
Bars , shops , and restaurants remained open , and public transport was running .
Yet the right wing has chosen to characterize the March 8 protests as driving the coronavirus crisis .
Vox party leader Santiago Abascal described the protests as a “ grave ” for thousands of virus victims .
Meanwhile , the party has apologized for its own March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hiding information about the health risks .
The government denies the accusations : “ We acted when the facts dictated it , when the escalation of infections and deaths and the pressure on hospital intensive care units started to grow , ” Rafael Simancas , the secretary-general of the Socialists in parliament , told Foreign Policy .
On Monday , a judge charged the government ’ s representative in Madrid , José Manuel Franco , with “ administrative prevarication ” for allowing mass gatherings to go ahead just before Spain declared a state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Spanish officials should not escape scrutiny , the focus on the protests by right-wing critics is disproportionate .
“ Whether the government was justified in permitting the rallies should be investigated , but that is just one of many questions , ” said Noemí López Trujillo , a journalist covering gender and social issues for the website Newtral .
She said the right has characterized the feminist movement as a vector of disease and that women who attended the marches are now targets of online criticism .
“ People attack us a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are guilty of everything that has happened since , ” López said .
The controversy over the March 8 rallies underscores how feminism has become a fault line in Spain , where the already stark divide between left and right has sharpened with the rise of Vox .
“ In Spain , the opposition is always slightly more than an opposition—it questions the legitimacy of the government , ” said Berta Barbet , a postdoctoral political science researcher at the Autonomous University of Barcelona .
“ Even in this crisis , what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideological debate.
” Positions on gender equality have increasingly become part of the culture war between the two camps .
Public support for Vox is a reaction to the advance of progressive politics in Spain .
Since the Socialists took power in 2018 , Vox has gone from having no parliamentary representation to holding 52 seats , feeding off conservative anger that the government is moving too far left .
For the right , feminism is seen as emblematic of this left-wing ideology .
The Socialists have made gender equality central to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see a “ feminist Spain.
” His party ’ s main coalition partner , the far-left Podemos , has a strong feminist agenda : It championed the new anti-rape bill as a flagship policy .
The bill itself responded to two high-profile gang rape cases that catalyzed Spain ’ s new wave of feminism .
At the other end of the spectrum , Vox has called for the repeal of Spain ’ s gender violence laws .
It alleges that the legislation discriminates against men because it deals specifically with male partner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government is promoting an ideology that fosters division between the sexes .
At the party ’ s March 8 rally , Abascal said a rise in rape figures proved government policy was not protecting women .
In Spain ’ s polarized political landscape , the conservatives have moved further right as Vox has gained popularity .
In some regional parliaments , the People ’ s Party and the pro-business party Ciudadanos have formed alliances with Vox in order to govern .
Some analysts say the shift to the right by the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s broad political consensus on women ’ s rights , such as the state pact to combat gender-based violence backed by the center-right parties .
Other divisions are already emerging .
The People ’ s Party boycotted last year ’ s March 8 protests , saying they had become dominated by the left .
To boost its gender equality credentials , the party did send a delegation this year , but some senior party members stayed away .
A group from Ciudadanos attended the rallies in Madrid but left after being heckled by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criticized the movement for alienating women with different political ideologies .
“ We can ’ t think that feminist public policy only comes from a center-left government.
” López argues that finding common ground is essential , and dismissing the People ’ s Party and Ciudadanos as “ anti-feminist ” could hinder progress by ruling out future alliances .
“ We can ’ t think that feminist public policy only comes from a center-left government , ” she said .
But she is concerned that some right-wing rhetoric threatens fundamentals widely accepted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to tackle femicide or to improve working conditions for women .
Despite pressure from right-wing forces , Spanish civil society will keep pushing for change , said María Solanas , the director of programs at Madrid ’ s Elcano Royal Institute .
“ I think there ’ s still a majority consensus , at least in Spanish society and in many European countries , on the importance of closing the gaps and achieving societies where men and women can be equal at all levels , ” she said .
But as reactionary groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backsliding is significant .
Of particular concern is a backlash against sexual health and reproductive rights .
Solanas cited the Trump administration ’ s withdrawal of U.S. funding for the United Nations Population Fund , which it accused of promoting abortions .
In Spain , reproductive health care is also being questioned by the right .
Vox seeks to repeal legislation passed in 2010 under a previous Socialist government that allows the termination of a pregnancy during the first trimester .
The current leader of the People ’ s Party has said he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s aging population .
Despite the gains by feminist activists in Spain , the targeting of fundamental women ’ s rights by conservative political forces complicates an already slow and difficult path to equality .
Now the fight is on to stop the clock turning back .

Spain’s right-wing politicians are blaming a series of feminist rallies held in March for spreading the coronavirus, which has claimed more than 27,000 lives nationwide. While any mass gatherings in early March—from protests to soccer matches—could have served as vectors for the spread of COVID-19, Spanish conservatives have focused their criticism on the International Women’s Day protests. It is a political point-scoring strategy that could further polarize Spain’s gender equality debate. It also threatens to deepen the ideological divisions that have worsened with the rise of the far-right Vox party, which became the third-largest force in parliament after elections in November 2019.
Spain’s right-wing politicians are blaming a series of feminist rallies held in March for spreading the coronavirus, which has claimed more than 27,000 lives nationwide. While any mass gatherings in early March—from protests to soccer matches—could have served as vectors for the spread of COVID-19, Spanish conservatives have focused their criticism on the International Women’s Day protests. It is a political point-scoring strategy that could further polarize Spain’s gender equality debate. It also threatens to deepen the ideological divisions that have worsened with the rise of the far-right Vox party, which became the third-largest force in parliament after elections in November 2019.
Equality campaigners say the focus on the March 8 rallies —known as the “8M” protests in Spain—is part of a growing backlash against feminism that could stall progress on women’s rights. The protests are central to a left-aligned feminist movement that has surged in Spain over the last two years, calling for action on issues from sexual violence to equal pay. Vox has taken direct aim at the feminist agenda while accusing activists of stoking hatred against men and disparaging the March 8 protests as a propaganda tool of the Socialist-led coalition government.
This year’s rallies were particularly significant for the left. They took place days after the new government approved a landmark bill reforming Spain’s sexual assault laws to redefine rape as any sex without consent. Around 120,000 people marched in Madrid on March 8, chanting “No es no, lo demás es violación”—“No means no, everything else is rape.” The scene was repeated across Spain. Six days later, the government declared a state of emergency as coronavirus cases escalated and imposed a strict lockdown.
Vox and the main opposition center-right People’s Party have since framed the rallies as a principal source of contagion and accused Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s left-wing government of putting its feminist credentials above public health. The Madrid regional leader for the People’s Party, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, dubbed the marches in the capital “Spain’s biggest infectodrome.” The party’s health spokesperson said that by encouraging people to attend the 8M demonstrations, the government had turned Spain into an “epidemiological bomb.”
The comments echo conservative news sites, which have also portrayed the rallies as a spark for Spain’s outbreak. “The 8M feminist protests continue to claim victims,” the right-wing media outlet Okdiario said after the women’s rights campaigner África Lorente Castillo died from COVID-19 on May 1—linking Lorente’s death to the march in Catalonia that she led 10 days before she was hospitalized.
Some right-wing politicians and their supporters are using the crisis as an opportunity to undermine the movement as a whole. The attempt to “demonize” activists taps into the wider social desire to attribute blame for Spain’s coronavirus outbreak, said Viviana Waisman, the CEO and founder of the women’s rights campaign group Women’s Link Worldwide. “They’re creating a narrative around a common enemy,” she said.
The health ministry had confirmed 10 deaths from COVID-19 and hundreds of infections on the day of the protests, but they were not the only crowded event to go ahead. Vox held a counterprotest for thousands of supporters on March 8. Major soccer matches took place on the same day, including a clash between Real Madrid and Betis in front of packed crowds in Seville. Bars, shops, and restaurants remained open, and public transport was running. Yet the right wing has chosen to characterize the March 8 protests as driving the coronavirus crisis.
Vox party leader Santiago Abascal described the protests as a “grave” for thousands of virus victims. Meanwhile, the party has apologized for its own March 8 rally but blames the government for hiding information about the health risks. The government denies the accusations: “We acted when the facts dictated it, when the escalation of infections and deaths and the pressure on hospital intensive care units started to grow,” Rafael Simancas, the secretary-general of the Socialists in parliament, told Foreign Policy. On Monday, a judge charged the government’s representative in Madrid, José Manuel Franco, with “administrative prevarication” for allowing mass gatherings to go ahead just before Spain declared a state of alarm.
Feminists say that while Spanish officials should not escape scrutiny, the focus on the protests by right-wing critics is disproportionate. “Whether the government was justified in permitting the rallies should be investigated, but that is just one of many questions,” said Noemí López Trujillo, a journalist covering gender and social issues for the website Newtral. She said the right has characterized the feminist movement as a vector of disease and that women who attended the marches are now targets of online criticism. “People attack us a lot for having participated in 8M, suggesting we are guilty of everything that has happened since,” López said.
The controversy over the March 8 rallies underscores how feminism has become a fault line in Spain, where the already stark divide between left and right has sharpened with the rise of Vox. “In Spain, the opposition is always slightly more than an opposition—it questions the legitimacy of the government,” said Berta Barbet, a postdoctoral political science researcher at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. “Even in this crisis, what we’re seeing is an underlying ideological debate.” Positions on gender equality have increasingly become part of the culture war between the two camps.
Public support for Vox is a reaction to the advance of progressive politics in Spain. Since the Socialists took power in 2018, Vox has gone from having no parliamentary representation to holding 52 seats, feeding off conservative anger that the government is moving too far left. For the right, feminism is seen as emblematic of this left-wing ideology. The Socialists have made gender equality central to their platform, with Sánchez saying he wants to see a “feminist Spain.” His party’s main coalition partner, the far-left Podemos, has a strong feminist agenda: It championed the new anti-rape bill as a flagship policy. The bill itself responded to two high-profile gang rape cases that catalyzed Spain’s new wave of feminism.
At the other end of the spectrum, Vox has called for the repeal of Spain’s gender violence laws. It alleges that the legislation discriminates against men because it deals specifically with male partner violence against women. Vox argues that the government is promoting an ideology that fosters division between the sexes. At the party’s March 8 rally, Abascal said a rise in rape figures proved government policy was not protecting women.
In Spain’s polarized political landscape, the conservatives have moved further right as Vox has gained popularity. In some regional parliaments, the People’s Party and the pro-business party Ciudadanos have formed alliances with Vox in order to govern. Some analysts say the shift to the right by the more moderate parties could undermine the country’s broad political consensus on women’s rights, such as the state pact to combat gender-based violence backed by the center-right parties.
Other divisions are already emerging. The People’s Party boycotted last year’s March 8 protests, saying they had become dominated by the left. To boost its gender equality credentials, the party did send a delegation this year, but some senior party members stayed away. A group from Ciudadanos attended the rallies in Madrid but left after being heckled by protesters. Party leader Inés Arrimadas has criticized the movement for alienating women with different political ideologies.
“We can’t think that feminist public policy only comes from a center-left government.”
López argues that finding common ground is essential, and dismissing the People’s Party and Ciudadanos as “anti-feminist” could hinder progress by ruling out future alliances. “We can’t think that feminist public policy only comes from a center-left government,” she said. But she is concerned that some right-wing rhetoric threatens fundamentals widely accepted in Spanish society, such as the need to tackle femicide or to improve working conditions for women.
Despite pressure from right-wing forces, Spanish civil society will keep pushing for change, said María Solanas, the director of programs at Madrid’s Elcano Royal Institute. “I think there’s still a majority consensus, at least in Spanish society and in many European countries, on the importance of closing the gaps and achieving societies where men and women can be equal at all levels,” she said.
But as reactionary groups gain traction worldwide, the threat of backsliding is significant. Of particular concern is a backlash against sexual health and reproductive rights. Solanas cited the Trump administration’s withdrawal of U.S. funding for the United Nations Population Fund, which it accused of promoting abortions. In Spain, reproductive health care is also being questioned by the right. Vox seeks to repeal legislation passed in 2010 under a previous Socialist government that allows the termination of a pregnancy during the first trimester. The current leader of the People’s Party has said he supports limiting abortion to combat Spain’s aging population.
Despite the gains by feminist activists in Spain, the targeting of fundamental women’s rights by conservative political forces complicates an already slow and difficult path to equality. Now the fight is on to stop the clock turning back.