foreignpolicy--2020-04-21--Oil Price Plummets Into Negative Territory

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : U.S. oil benchmark price tanks , Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agree to a unity government in Israel , Trump seeks to halt all immigration to U.S. , and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly in fragile condition after heart surgery .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
On Monday afternoon , a gallon of milk and a barrel of oil could be bought for the same price .
It got worse from there .
A combination of poor timing , nonexistent demand , lack of storage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Crude Oil futures , the U.S. oil benchmark , to go into freefall on Monday , eventually settling at a negative price of - $ 37.63 a barrel—meaning that producers would have to pay people to take the oil off their hands .
( The price of WTI crude for May delivery recovered to just over $ 0 per barrel by Tuesday morning . )
The crash came as traders rushed to ditch their investment before the financial world met the real world : The expiration date for the May futures contract is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contracts would need to physically accept 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing , Oklahoma .
The storage facility at Cushing is already close to capacity due to weeks of low oil demand—making the contract effectively worthless .
For traders accustomed to buying and selling oil only on paper , the prospect of taking physical delivery was a nonstarter—and other potential recipients of oil deliveries such as refineries or airlines aren ’ t keen to take it—prompting traders to offload the contract .
As Julianne Geiger at Oilprice.com explains , the United States Oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a large share of the May contracts .
“ Of course , an ETF like the USO who deals in paper barrels is not eager to take physical delivery of any amount of oil—even if they could find somewhere to store it , ” she writes .
“ The result ?
They must dump their oil , and they must do it now , no matter what the price.
” What does this mean for the U.S. oil industry ?
Monday ’ s plunge doesn ’ t mean oil is done for—as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just over $ 20 per barrel , having dropped from $ 25 a barrel on Friday .
Roger Diwan , a vice president at energy research firm IHS Markit , warned that the recent drop in the June price is still worrying , “ A decline of over 15 percent in the June contract price points to real worries that the physical stress will continue to reverberate , and will force a lot more production shutdowns during May than the ones announced so far , ” he wrote on Twitter .
As Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for physical oil is fading fast , and U.S. President Donald Trump is attempting to stanch the bleeding .
At yesterday ’ s White House briefing Trump said the United States would buy up to 75 million barrels of oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
“ This is a great time to buy oil and we ’ d like to have Congress approve it , ” Trump said .
He also said he would consider charging for others to store oil in the reserve , “ People need storage desperately , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other nations reacted to Monday ’ s crash ?
The dramatic drop has spooked other oil-producing nations .
The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations are considering cutting oil production as soon as possible , rather than wait until the beginning of May per the terms of the agreement struck on April 12 between OPEC , Russia , and the United States .
“ Something has to be done about this bloodbath , ” a Saudi official told the Journal .
“ But it might be a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agree to unity government .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz have officially agreed to form an emergency unity government , bringing a degree of closure to a tumultuous year in Israeli politics that saw three elections .
The agreement will see cabinet positions shared between Netanyahu ’ s Likud party and Gantz ’ s Blue and White party , and the two leaders rotating as prime minister .
Crucially , Netanyahu will be prime minister for the first 18 months of the three-year deal , meaning he will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corruption trial .
It also means Netanyahu can veto any new attorney general or state prosecutor , further solidifying his political position .
According to Haaretz , the deal gives Netanyahu the ability to move forward with his campaign promise to annex large parts of the West Bank by July 1 , provided the plan receives Trump administration approval .
Gantz was stoic upon announcement of the deal , writing on Twitter , “ We prevented a fourth election .
We will protect democracy .
We will battle corona and we will worry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gantz has paid the political price for this alliance , however , losing half of his parliamentary supporters and fracturing the nascent Blue and White party .
Such is the volatile nature of recent Israeli politics , it ’ s not even a given that Gantz will be prime minister in 18 months .
Writing in FP on April 7 , Dennis Ross and David Makovsky lauded Gantz for making the hard choice to pursue a unity government , even if it amounted to political suicide , “ He was driven by his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , must take precedence in a time of emergency , ” they wrote .
“ And he knew that in making this decision , he would split his party and perhaps cost himself any real political future.
” Trump threatens to halt all immigration .
Trump signaled on Monday night that he intends to ban all those trying to move to the United States to live and work , ostensibly to protect U.S. workers from foreign competition .
“ In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy , as well as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GREAT American Citizens , ” he wrote on Twitter , “ I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States !
” According to the New York Times , “ the president ’ s late-night announcement on Monday signals his most wide-ranging attempt yet to seal the country off from the rest of the world … effectively shutting down the legal immigration system in the same way the president has long advocated closing the borders to illegal immigration.
” Turkey says it will delay S-400 deployment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , said that Turkey will delay deploying the Russian S-400 air defense system in its airspace this month as it prioritizes dealing with its burgeoning coronavirus crisis .
Turkey ’ s decision to purchase the system led to its expulsion from the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program in July of last year .
By delaying the system ’ s deployment , Ankara also fends off the prospect of additional sanctions threatened by the United States .
“ We continue to stress at the highest levels that the S-400 transaction is the subject of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a major obstacle in the bilateral relationship and at NATO , ” State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said , using an acronym referring to a U.S. law that punishes countries that buy Russian weapons .
“ We are confident that President Erdogan and his senior officials understand our position , ” she said .
Italy ’ s drop in new coronavirus cases .
New daily coronavirus cases in Italy fell to their lowest levels in over a month , according to official figures : 2,256 new cases were registered on Monday , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s death toll increased slightly on the previous day , however , suggesting Italy is not yet clear of the worst of its epidemic .
In a positive development , Italy ’ s health observatory has forecast that two of Italy ’ s 20 regions , Umbria and Basilicata , would be registering no new cases by the end of April .
The same forecast predicted that Lombardy , Italy ’ s worst hit region , would see new cases drop to zero toward the end of June .
WHO warns of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Organization warned that as few as 2 percent of people worldwide have developed antibodies to combat COVID-19 , dampening hopes that “ herd immunity ” may already be a possibility as nations approach a third month of stay-at-home measures .
Maria Van Kerkhove , the WHO ’ s technical lead on the coronavirus pandemic , warned that antibodies were not enough to prove a person ’ s immunity and that the organization is tracking a number of studies looking at antibody levels in coronavirus hotspots .
Iran begins return to public life .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Iran on Monday as the country began to relax public coronavirus restrictions .
Restaurants and mosques remain closed until further notice as the country tries to balance public health with the need to invigorate an already sanctions-ravaged economy .
Ali Reza Zali , the head of the government coronavirus task force in Tehran , warned that the increased activity could lead to more cases , “ The most important point is that more commuting , especially through public transportation , adds to the possibility of the spread of the virus , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ official figures , Iran has 83,505 cases of the coronavirus and has recorded 5,209 deaths .
Like many nations , it is suspected that these figures may represent a significant undercount .
It ’ s an old business cliché that hairdressers are one of the few recession-proof businesses .
If Denmark ’ s barbershops are anything to go by , the future of the trade seems bright , as the country relaxed restrictions on small businesses on Monday .
Phil Olander , a barber in Copenhagen told the BBC his business is fully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that his online booking system crashed under the weight of demand .
“ We are crazy busy , ” Olander said .
The businesses have to operate under new hygiene standards designed to stem any further spread of the coronavirus and boost confidence for consumers .
“ We have to do a clean up between every client , ” Olander said .
“ So that ’ s sanitizing each station , the tools , everything from the doorknob to the credit card reader .
So it ’ s a lot of extra @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. oil benchmark price tanks, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agree to a unity government in Israel, Trump seeks to halt all immigration to U.S., and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly in fragile condition after heart surgery.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. oil benchmark price tanks, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agree to a unity government in Israel, Trump seeks to halt all immigration to U.S., and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly in fragile condition after heart surgery.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Oil Goes Negative as Investors Race to Offload Contracts
On Monday afternoon, a gallon of milk and a barrel of oil could be bought for the same price. It got worse from there.
A combination of poor timing, nonexistent demand, lack of storage capacity, and speculative investors caused WTI Crude Oil futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, to go into free fall on Monday, eventually settling at a negative price of -$37.63 a barrel—meaning that producers would have to pay people to take the oil off their hands. (The price of WTI crude for May delivery recovered to just over $0 per barrel by Tuesday morning.)
The crash came as traders rushed to ditch their investment before the financial world met the real world: The expiration date for the May futures contract is today, meaning any holder of those contracts would need to physically accept 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing, Oklahoma. The storage facility at Cushing is already close to capacity due to weeks of low oil demand—making the contract effectively worthless. For traders accustomed to buying and selling oil only on paper, the prospect of taking physical delivery was a nonstarter—and other potential recipients of oil deliveries such as refineries or airlines aren’t keen to take it—prompting traders to offload the contract.
As Julianne Geiger at Oilprice.com explains, the United States Oil Fund—an exchange-traded fund (ETF)—held a large share of the May contracts. “Of course, an ETF like the USO who deals in paper barrels is not eager to take physical delivery of any amount of oil—even if they could find somewhere to store it,” she writes. “The result? They must dump their oil, and they must do it now, no matter what the price.”
What does this mean for the U.S. oil industry? Monday’s plunge doesn’t mean oil is done for—as the June delivery contract is still trading at just over $20 per barrel, having dropped from $25 a barrel on Friday. Roger Diwan, a vice president at energy research firm IHS Markit, warned that the recent drop in the June price is still worrying, “A decline of over 15 percent in the June contract price points to real worries that the physical stress will continue to reverberate, and will force a lot more production shutdowns during May than the ones announced so far,” he wrote on Twitter.
As Monday’s collapse shows, the market for physical oil is fading fast, and U.S. President Donald Trump is attempting to stanch the bleeding. At yesterday’s White House briefing Trump said the United States would buy up to 75 million barrels of oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “This is a great time to buy oil and we’d like to have Congress approve it,” Trump said. He also said he would consider charging for others to store oil in the reserve, “People need storage desperately, and we have massive storage.”
How have other nations reacted to Monday’s crash? The dramatic drop has spooked other oil-producing nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations are considering cutting oil production as soon as possible, rather than wait until the beginning of May per the terms of the agreement struck on April 12 between OPEC, Russia, and the United States. “Something has to be done about this bloodbath,” a Saudi official told the Journal. “But it might be a little bit too late.”
What We’re Following Today
Gantz and Netanyahu agree to unity government. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz have officially agreed to form an emergency unity government, bringing a degree of closure to a tumultuous year in Israeli politics that saw three elections. The agreement will see cabinet positions shared between Netanyahu’s Likud party and Gantz’s Blue and White party, and the two leaders rotating as prime minister. Crucially, Netanyahu will be prime minister for the first 18 months of the three-year deal, meaning he will be head of government during his impending corruption trial. It also means Netanyahu can veto any new attorney general or state prosecutor, further solidifying his political position.
According to Haaretz, the deal gives Netanyahu the ability to move forward with his campaign promise to annex large parts of the West Bank by July 1, provided the plan receives Trump administration approval.
Gantz was stoic upon announcement of the deal, writing on Twitter, “We prevented a fourth election. We will protect democracy. We will battle corona and we will worry about all the citizens of Israel.” Gantz has paid the political price for this alliance, however, losing half of his parliamentary supporters and fracturing the nascent Blue and White party. Such is the volatile nature of recent Israeli politics, it’s not even a given that Gantz will be prime minister in 18 months.
Writing in FP on April 7, Dennis Ross and David Makovsky lauded Gantz for making the hard choice to pursue a unity government, even if it amounted to political suicide, “He was driven by his belief that the country, not politics, must take precedence in a time of emergency,” they wrote. “And he knew that in making this decision, he would split his party and perhaps cost himself any real political future.”
Trump threatens to halt all immigration. Trump signaled on Monday night that he intends to ban all those trying to move to the United States to live and work, ostensibly to protect U.S. workers from foreign competition. “In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens,” he wrote on Twitter, “I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!”
According to the New York Times, “the president’s late-night announcement on Monday signals his most wide-ranging attempt yet to seal the country off from the rest of the world … effectively shutting down the legal immigration system in the same way the president has long advocated closing the borders to illegal immigration.”
Turkey says it will delay S-400 deployment. A senior Turkish official, speaking anonymously, said that Turkey will delay deploying the Russian S-400 air defense system in its airspace this month as it prioritizes dealing with its burgeoning coronavirus crisis. Turkey’s decision to purchase the system led to its expulsion from the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program in July of last year. By delaying the system’s deployment, Ankara also fends off the prospect of additional sanctions threatened by the United States.
“We continue to stress at the highest levels that the S-400 transaction is the subject of ongoing CAATSA sanctions deliberations and it remains a major obstacle in the bilateral relationship and at NATO,” State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said, using an acronym referring to a U.S. law that punishes countries that buy Russian weapons. “We are confident that President Erdogan and his senior officials understand our position,” she said.
Italy’s drop in new coronavirus cases. New daily coronavirus cases in Italy fell to their lowest levels in over a month, according to official figures: 2,256 new cases were registered on Monday, the lowest since March 10. The country’s death toll increased slightly on the previous day, however, suggesting Italy is not yet clear of the worst of its epidemic. In a positive development, Italy’s health observatory has forecast that two of Italy’s 20 regions, Umbria and Basilicata, would be registering no new cases by the end of April. The same forecast predicted that Lombardy, Italy’s worst hit region, would see new cases drop to zero toward the end of June.
Keep an Eye On Where is North Korean leader Kim Jong Un? The United States has been closely monitoring reports on the North Korean leader’s health after he missed the celebration of his grandfather’s birthday on April 15, which led to speculation about his condition. (He had been seen four days before that.) Daily NK, an online newspaper based in South Korea and run largely by North Korean defectors, reported that Kim had undergone a cardiovascular procedure on April 12 due to “excessive smoking, obesity, and overwork,” according to the news site. The website NK News has produced an analysis of the succession process if Kim is incapacitated or dies. Although U.S. intelligence is reportedly monitoring Kim’s “grave condition,” the South Korean government announced that “We have no information to confirm regarding rumors about Chairman Kim Jong Un’s health issue that have been reported by some media outlets. Also, no unusual developments have been detected inside North Korea.”
WHO warns of low antibody levels. The World Health Organization warned that as few as 2 percent of people worldwide have developed antibodies to combat COVID-19, dampening hopes that “herd immunity” may already be a possibility as nations approach a third month of stay-at-home measures. Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on the coronavirus pandemic, warned that antibodies were not enough to prove a person’s immunity and that the organization is tracking a number of studies looking at antibody levels in coronavirus hotspots.
Iran begins return to public life. Shopping malls reopened and intercity travel resumed in Iran on Monday as the country began to relax public coronavirus restrictions. Restaurants and mosques remain closed until further notice as the country tries to balance public health with the need to invigorate an already sanctions-ravaged economy. Ali Reza Zali, the head of the government coronavirus task force in Tehran, warned that the increased activity could lead to more cases, “The most important point is that more commuting, especially through public transportation, adds to the possibility of the spread of the virus,” he told state media. According to official figures, Iran has 83,505 cases of the coronavirus and has recorded 5,209 deaths. Like many nations, it is suspected that these figures may represent a significant undercount.
Odds and Ends
It’s an old business cliché that hairdressers are one of the few recession-proof businesses. If Denmark’s barbershops are anything to go by, the future of the trade seems bright, as the country relaxed restrictions on small businesses on Monday. Phil Olander, a barber in Copenhagen told the BBC his business is fully booked for the next two weeks, and that his online booking system crashed under the weight of demand. “We are crazy busy,” Olander said. The businesses have to operate under new hygiene standards designed to stem any further spread of the coronavirus and boost confidence for consumers. “We have to do a clean up between every client,” Olander said. “So that’s sanitizing each station, the tools, everything from the doorknob to the credit card reader. So it’s a lot of extra work.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-21--Congress Asks for New Social Distancing Rules on U.S. Warships

Congress Asks for New Social Distancing Rules on U.S .
Warships A senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee is calling for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) to draw up fresh guidelines to prevent the spread of the coronavirus aboard U.S. warships as the virus-wracked USS Theodore Roosevelt remains pierside in Guam .
In a letter to the agency ’ s chief provided to Foreign Policy by a House aide , Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier , the head of the Subcommittee on Military Personnel , asked CDC Director Robert Redfield to push for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close quarters mitigate the disease .
The Navy said on Tuesday that 710 members of the Roosevelt ’ s crew had tested positive for the coronavirus , in three weeks since the ship ’ s fired skipper , Capt .
Brett Crozier , called for the service to leave just 10 percent of sailors aboard the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier .
“ As the fallout from the infections aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt continues , I am concerned about the U.S. Navy ’ s response to this pandemic aboard ship and their adherence to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s guidelines for social distancing , quarantine and isolation , ” Speier wrote to Redfield on April 16 .
“ Clearly , the CDC required six feet of physical distancing and avoidance of crowded places is nearly impossible on a U.S. warship considering the close quarters of the working environment and sleeping arrangements.
” Speier—one of several members of Congress calling for a hearing to address the Crozier case—is also asking for the agency to track infections aboard the Roosevelt and detect any sailors with antibodies to the virus .
CNN reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CDC launched a joint probe to determine the origin of the outbreak and how it spread aboard the ship .
A Navy official told Foreign Policy on Friday that the first two cases of the virus aboard the ship came from the air wing , after Navy Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham said—and then reversed himself—there was “ evidence to suggest ” that the troops picked up the illness while on a resupply mission in Da Nang , Vietnam , in March .
“ There are numerous questions she ’ s still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why the Navy still has not provided the sailors aboard the ship and throughout the fleet with critically needed [ personal protective equipment ] despite the Defense Department ’ s claim of a healthy stockpile , ” a Speier aide told Foreign Policy .
Speier ’ s letter follows the start of a House probe into former acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly ’ s removal of Crozier that is focused on the captain ’ s warnings to Navy leaders that his aircraft carrier was wracked with the coronavirus .
The action comes amid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rationale for the dismissal .
The Democrat-controlled House Oversight and Reform Committee launched its investigation on April 7 , just days after Crozier was dismissed for writing a memorandum recommending that all 5,000 sailors on the ship disembark and self-quarantine for two weeks so the ship could be sanitized .
“ The [ Subcommittee on National Security ] continues to investigate the circumstances that led to Captain Crozier ’ s dismissal , as well as the preceding communications he may have had with his chain of command that seemingly left him with no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ request for help managing the coronavirus outbreak on his ship , ” a Democratic aide for the oversight panel said in a statement .
Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham said it was time to “ move on ” in the wake of Modly ’ s firing , while the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee , Rep. Mac Thornberry , said the changing of the guard in the Navy ’ s top office “ should allow the country to put this episode behind us.
” The Navy is expected to wrap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week that could restore Crozier to command of the warship , even as Politico reported on Tuesday that the service has delayed onboarding sailors back onto the Roosevelt .
Crozier , the California native whose urgent warning to higher-ups about the spread of the coronavirus aboard his ship leaked to the San Francisco Chronicle late last month , was supposed to be reassigned to a different command after Modly fired him .
The Navy said on Tuesday that 94 percent of the USS Theodore Roosevelt ’ s crew had been tested for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some 4,158 sailors had moved ashore into gymnasiums and hotel rooms on Guam .
One sailor , 41-year-old Aviation Ordnanceman Chief Petty Officer Charles Robert Thacker Jr. , died of COVID-19 last week .
In the wake of the spread of the novel virus aboard the Roosevelt , Defense Secretary Mark Esper has ordered U.S. aircraft carriers to halt all port visits and remain at sea , though the USS Chester Nimitz is soon set to depart , replacing the USS Harry Truman , which shifted out of the Middle East this month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Roosevelt underscores the tension between the Defense Department , Congress , and military families over implementing the Trump administration ’ s social distancing guidelines .
Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Tim Kaine , who holds a slot on the Senate Armed Services Committee , called on the Pentagon to set up a widespread testing program to protect U.S. troops .
“ [ T ] here is still no clear goal announced by this administration about what an optimal testing program would look like , ” Kaine wrote in an op-ed in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we hear inaccurate promises that ‘ everyone can get a test ’ or platitudes about how much better we are doing or will be doing in the near future.
” But the calls for social distancing from lawmakers and military families have not slowed the Pentagon ’ s desire to get back to pre-virus pace of operations .
On Monday , the Army resumed shipping recruits to basic training after a two-week hiatus , as Foreign Policy reported last week , raising concerns among family members that the rate of infection could increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Army will also resume face-to-face recruiting after closing stations on March 18 , as online recruiting has lagged behind the service ’ s ambitious targets despite jobless claims topping 22 million in the United States in the month since most states enacted strict social distancing guidelines .

A senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee is calling for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to draw up fresh guidelines to prevent the spread of the coronavirus aboard U.S. warships as the virus-wracked USS Theodore Roosevelt remains pierside in Guam.
A senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee is calling for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to draw up fresh guidelines to prevent the spread of the coronavirus aboard U.S. warships as the virus-wracked USS Theodore Roosevelt remains pierside in Guam.
In a letter to the agency’s chief provided to Foreign Policy by a House aide, Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier, the head of the Subcommittee on Military Personnel, asked CDC Director Robert Redfield to push for new recommendations to help sailors packed in close quarters mitigate the disease.
The Navy said on Tuesday that 710 members of the Roosevelt’s crew had tested positive for the coronavirus, in three weeks since the ship’s fired skipper, Capt. Brett Crozier, called for the service to leave just 10 percent of sailors aboard the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
“As the fallout from the infections aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt continues, I am concerned about the U.S. Navy’s response to this pandemic aboard ship and their adherence to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines for social distancing, quarantine and isolation,” Speier wrote to Redfield on April 16. “Clearly, the CDC required six feet of physical distancing and avoidance of crowded places is nearly impossible on a U.S. warship considering the close quarters of the working environment and sleeping arrangements.”
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
Speier—one of several members of Congress calling for a hearing to address the Crozier case—is also asking for the agency to track infections aboard the Roosevelt and detect any sailors with antibodies to the virus.
CNN reported on Monday that the Navy and the CDC launched a joint probe to determine the origin of the outbreak and how it spread aboard the ship. A Navy official told Foreign Policy on Friday that the first two cases of the virus aboard the ship came from the air wing, after Navy Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham said—and then reversed himself—there was “evidence to suggest” that the troops picked up the illness while on a resupply mission in Da Nang, Vietnam, in March.
“There are numerous questions she’s still pushing for answers on, such as why the Navy still has not provided the sailors aboard the ship and throughout the fleet with critically needed [personal protective equipment] despite the Defense Department’s claim of a healthy stockpile,” a Speier aide told Foreign Policy.
Speier’s letter follows the start of a House probe into former acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly’s removal of Crozier that is focused on the captain’s warnings to Navy leaders that his aircraft carrier was wracked with the coronavirus. The action comes amid news that Modly may have exaggerated his rationale for the dismissal.
The Democrat-controlled House Oversight and Reform Committee launched its investigation on April 7, just days after Crozier was dismissed for writing a memorandum recommending that all 5,000 sailors on the ship disembark and self-quarantine for two weeks so the ship could be sanitized.
“The [Subcommittee on National Security] continues to investigate the circumstances that led to Captain Crozier’s dismissal, as well as the preceding communications he may have had with his chain of command that seemingly left him with no other choice but to send an urgent request for help managing the coronavirus outbreak on his ship,” a Democratic aide for the oversight panel said in a statement.
Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham said it was time to “move on” in the wake of Modly’s firing, while the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Mac Thornberry, said the changing of the guard in the Navy’s top office “should allow the country to put this episode behind us.”
The Navy is expected to wrap up an investigation into the incident later this week that could restore Crozier to command of the warship, even as Politico reported on Tuesday that the service has delayed onboarding sailors back onto the Roosevelt. Crozier, the California native whose urgent warning to higher-ups about the spread of the coronavirus aboard his ship leaked to the San Francisco Chronicle late last month, was supposed to be reassigned to a different command after Modly fired him.
The Navy said on Tuesday that 94 percent of the USS Theodore Roosevelt’s crew had been tested for the coronavirus, including Crozier, as some 4,158 sailors had moved ashore into gymnasiums and hotel rooms on Guam. One sailor, 41-year-old Aviation Ordnanceman Chief Petty Officer Charles Robert Thacker Jr., died of COVID-19 last week.
In the wake of the spread of the novel virus aboard the Roosevelt, Defense Secretary Mark Esper has ordered U.S. aircraft carriers to halt all port visits and remain at sea, though the USS Chester Nimitz is soon set to depart, replacing the USS Harry Truman, which shifted out of the Middle East this month.
But the continuing situation surrounding the Roosevelt underscores the tension between the Defense Department, Congress, and military families over implementing the Trump administration’s social distancing guidelines. Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Tim Kaine, who holds a slot on the Senate Armed Services Committee, called on the Pentagon to set up a widespread testing program to protect U.S. troops.
“[T]here is still no clear goal announced by this administration about what an optimal testing program would look like,” Kaine wrote in an op-ed in the Virginian-Pilot on Tuesday. “Instead, we hear inaccurate promises that ‘everyone can get a test’ or platitudes about how much better we are doing or will be doing in the near future.”
But the calls for social distancing from lawmakers and military families have not slowed the Pentagon’s desire to get back to pre-virus pace of operations.
On Monday, the Army resumed shipping recruits to basic training after a two-week hiatus, as Foreign Policy reported last week, raising concerns among family members that the rate of infection could increase before a vaccine is available. The Army will also resume face-to-face recruiting after closing stations on March 18, as online recruiting has lagged behind the service’s ambitious targets despite jobless claims topping 22 million in the United States in the month since most states enacted strict social distancing guidelines.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-21--Democracies Can’t Blame Putin for Their Disinformation Problem

With a looming election and an ongoing pandemic , concerns about Russian disinformation are never far from U.S. policymakers ’ minds .
So it was no surprise when former U.S. President Barack Obama shared an article on the subject last week , exhorting Americans to become more aware of foreign informational threats .
The problem is that the article , which focused on Russian COVID-19 disinformation efforts , had been roundly criticized by experts .
They pointed out its factual inaccuracies , its amplification of obscure troll accounts , and its unwillingness to consider the domestic sources of disinformation that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the pandemic .
The small episode highlights a recurring problem : Focusing on Russian President Vladimir Putin ’ s minions not only misses the big picture but can undermine the search for solutions .
Shifting the blame onto foreign autocrats , though politically palatable in Washington , creates a neat distinction in which an innocent democracy is being subverted by shadowy outside forces .
And once you accept this framing , the problems of the U.S. informational sphere become a foreign disease—one that requires inoculation and informational distancing but little in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yet as research has increasingly shown , homegrown disinformation is making democracy sicker than any foreign efforts can .
The U.S. media landscape has seen a proliferation of fake local news , homegrown conspiracy theories , and a steady stream of questionable information and selectively edited videos from President Donald Trump and top government officials .
The presidential reelection campaign , in concert with a number of private efforts , is poised to spend over a billion dollars on what the Atlantic called the “ most extensive disinformation campaign in U.S. history.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem of the contemporary United States .
There are immense incentives for disinformation built into democratic institutions themselves .
Treating disinformation as an alien disease ignores the fact that it is perfectly compatible with democratic norms and thrives inside democratic states .
A recent report by the Oxford Internet Institute , for example , found that politicians inside 45 democracies have used social media for “ amassing fake followers or spreading manipulated media to garner voter support.
” The same factors that promote healthy democracies also promote the spread of disinformation .
Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multiple competing narratives .
It demands a variety of media and political actors trying to persuade their audiences in a marketplace of ideas .
It tolerates and encourages opposing and even outlandish viewpoints .
All these democratic advantages , unfortunately , also create massive opportunities for disinformation .
Framing the problem as democracy versus disinformation thus ignores the ways in which disinformation is woven into the very fabric of the system .
Traditional methods of digital autocracy—blocking and censoring—rely on suppressing free flows of information and don ’ t live easily inside democracies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on controlling information but on spreading it , even if the information is false , distracting , or otherwise worthless .
( Which is why Russian observers , who have become deeply familiar with this method , call it “ info-noise.
” ) Russia ’ s relatively free media landscape has made Chinese-style brute-force censorship less feasible , forcing the government to pioneer new techniques of narrative control .
Disinformation assumes that censorship will not always succeed and in fact may be counterproductive .
Unlike traditional methods of control , it lacks the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the focus is on deluging people with a variety of provocative , distracting , and even blatantly false information .
As a result , it lives quite comfortably inside democracies , is perfectly compatible with democratic norms , and is easily generated by democratic actors .
After all , the “ FUD ” strategy of disinformation , in which fear , uncertainty , and doubt are used to influence both sales and politicians , was pioneered in U.S. lobbies and boardrooms .
“ We can ’ t blame Russia for all our troubles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s former chief security chief , told the New York Times recently .
“ The future of disinformation is going to be domestic.
” The goal of disinformation is not to dominate the informational space but to dilute it .
“ Flood the zone with shit , ” was Steve Bannon ’ s infamous advice for dealing with the media .
The ultimate goal of such a strategy is cynicism , overwhelming distrust of all news sources , and the fragmentation of a shared social reality .
The opposite of internet freedom , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mix of control , co-option , and strategic distraction .
The result , a fog of half-truths , leaves potential voters “ numb and disoriented , struggling to discern what is real in a sea of slant , fake and fact.
” As a result , disinformation may be a bigger problem for democracies than other regimes .
Democracies require a degree of social consensus to function , one created by a shared belief in a common reality .
This consensus does not expect people to agree , but it does expect shared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( To borrow from the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan , “ Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts.
” ) Autocratic rulers , on the other hand , benefit from the distrust , cynicism , and social atomization produced by disinformation , precisely because it inhibits political engagement and paralyzes organized social movements .
Social media echo chambers , deepfakes , and automated surveillance have all served to lower the costs of autocracy while undermining the benefits of open democratic deliberation .
Far from being overwhelmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learning to take advantage of it .
Russia will undoubtedly continue its attempts to influence U.S. politics using these methods ( hence why it ’ s better to see Russian interference as a process and not an event ) .
But trolling , strategic distraction , and disinformation is not something primarily done to the United States by external actors .
Instead , it stems primarily from domestic actors inside the country and benefits from the free discourse crucial to a functioning democracy .
( If anything , it ’ s the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model of disinformation for other leaders . )
Scholars of autocracies have sometimes invoked the idea of the “ dictator ’ s dilemma ” to explain the choices rulers face in the informational sphere .
Allowing increased availability of information , goes the argument , is crucial for regimes that want economic development but can also threaten their existence by opening up public discourse .
What we see emerging now is the “ democrat ’ s dilemma ” —controlling information is inimical to democracy , but allowing it to spread unchecked creates disinformation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this trade-off appears hardwired into modern democratic regimes .
Regardless of Russian or Chinese efforts , the same institutional advantages that allow democracy to function also make disinformation pervasive and inevitable .
An emphasis on foreign trolls , while politically convenient , creates an unhelpful distinction that obscures the root of the problem .
Russian disinformation is not an imaginary threat .
But focusing on Russian teens posting on Facebook even as Trump , large media companies , and international organizations pour out a steady stream of false and misleading information is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a cold .
The problem is more intractable than “ Putin did it , ” and the sooner policymakers accept this , the sooner they can start thinking about actual solutions .

With a looming election and an ongoing pandemic, concerns about Russian disinformation are never far from U.S. policymakers’ minds. So it was no surprise when former U.S. President Barack Obama shared an article on the subject last week, exhorting Americans to become more aware of foreign informational threats.
With a looming election and an ongoing pandemic, concerns about Russian disinformation are never far from U.S. policymakers’ minds. So it was no surprise when former U.S. President Barack Obama shared an article on the subject last week, exhorting Americans to become more aware of foreign informational threats.
The problem is that the article, which focused on Russian COVID-19 disinformation efforts, had been roundly criticized by experts. They pointed out its factual inaccuracies, its amplification of obscure troll accounts, and its unwillingness to consider the domestic sources of disinformation that have plagued the United States since long before the pandemic.
The small episode highlights a recurring problem: Focusing on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s minions not only misses the big picture but can undermine the search for solutions. Shifting the blame onto foreign autocrats, though politically palatable in Washington, creates a neat distinction in which an innocent democracy is being subverted by shadowy outside forces. And once you accept this framing, the problems of the U.S. informational sphere become a foreign disease—one that requires inoculation and informational distancing but little in the way of looking after your own health.
Yet as research has increasingly shown, homegrown disinformation is making democracy sicker than any foreign efforts can. The U.S. media landscape has seen a proliferation of fake local news, homegrown conspiracy theories, and a steady stream of questionable information and selectively edited videos from President Donald Trump and top government officials. The presidential reelection campaign, in concert with a number of private efforts, is poised to spend over a billion dollars on what the Atlantic called the “most extensive disinformation campaign in U.S. history.”
This isn’t just a problem of the contemporary United States. There are immense incentives for disinformation built into democratic institutions themselves. Treating disinformation as an alien disease ignores the fact that it is perfectly compatible with democratic norms and thrives inside democratic states. A recent report by the Oxford Internet Institute, for example, found that politicians inside 45 democracies have used social media for “amassing fake followers or spreading manipulated media to garner voter support.”
The same factors that promote healthy democracies also promote the spread of disinformation. Democratic deliberation requires free flows of information and multiple competing narratives. It demands a variety of media and political actors trying to persuade their audiences in a marketplace of ideas. It tolerates and encourages opposing and even outlandish viewpoints. All these democratic advantages, unfortunately, also create massive opportunities for disinformation.
Framing the problem as democracy versus disinformation thus ignores the ways in which disinformation is woven into the very fabric of the system. Traditional methods of digital autocracy—blocking and censoring—rely on suppressing free flows of information and don’t live easily inside democracies. Disinformation, however, relies not on controlling information but on spreading it, even if the information is false, distracting, or otherwise worthless. (Which is why Russian observers, who have become deeply familiar with this method, call it “info-noise.”) Russia’s relatively free media landscape has made Chinese-style brute-force censorship less feasible, forcing the government to pioneer new techniques of narrative control.
Disinformation assumes that censorship will not always succeed and in fact may be counterproductive. Unlike traditional methods of control, it lacks the clear stamp of autocracy. Instead, the focus is on deluging people with a variety of provocative, distracting, and even blatantly false information. As a result, it lives quite comfortably inside democracies, is perfectly compatible with democratic norms, and is easily generated by democratic actors. After all, the “FUD” strategy of disinformation, in which fear, uncertainty, and doubt are used to influence both sales and politicians, was pioneered in U.S. lobbies and boardrooms. “We can’t blame Russia for all our troubles,” Alex Stamos, Facebook’s former chief security chief, told the New York Times recently. “The future of disinformation is going to be domestic.”
The goal of disinformation is not to dominate the informational space but to dilute it. “Flood the zone with shit,” was Steve Bannon’s infamous advice for dealing with the media. The ultimate goal of such a strategy is cynicism, overwhelming distrust of all news sources, and the fragmentation of a shared social reality. The opposite of internet freedom, therefore, is not censorship but a mix of control, co-option, and strategic distraction. The result, a fog of half-truths, leaves potential voters “numb and disoriented, struggling to discern what is real in a sea of slant, fake and fact.”
As a result, disinformation may be a bigger problem for democracies than other regimes. Democracies require a degree of social consensus to function, one created by a shared belief in a common reality. This consensus does not expect people to agree, but it does expect shared knowledge of what they disagree about. (To borrow from the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts.”)
Autocratic rulers, on the other hand, benefit from the distrust, cynicism, and social atomization produced by disinformation, precisely because it inhibits political engagement and paralyzes organized social movements. Social media echo chambers, deepfakes, and automated surveillance have all served to lower the costs of autocracy while undermining the benefits of open democratic deliberation. Far from being overwhelmed by free information, dictators are increasingly learning to take advantage of it.
Russia will undoubtedly continue its attempts to influence U.S. politics using these methods (hence why it’s better to see Russian interference as a process and not an event). But trolling, strategic distraction, and disinformation is not something primarily done to the United States by external actors. Instead, it stems primarily from domestic actors inside the country and benefits from the free discourse crucial to a functioning democracy. (If anything, it’s the United States that has increasingly served as a model of disinformation for other leaders.)
Scholars of autocracies have sometimes invoked the idea of the “dictator’s dilemma” to explain the choices rulers face in the informational sphere. Allowing increased availability of information, goes the argument, is crucial for regimes that want economic development but can also threaten their existence by opening up public discourse. What we see emerging now is the “democrat’s dilemma”—controlling information is inimical to democracy, but allowing it to spread unchecked creates disinformation that can undermine democratic discourse. Increasingly, this trade-off appears hardwired into modern democratic regimes. Regardless of Russian or Chinese efforts, the same institutional advantages that allow democracy to function also make disinformation pervasive and inevitable. An emphasis on foreign trolls, while politically convenient, creates an unhelpful distinction that obscures the root of the problem.
Russian disinformation is not an imaginary threat. But focusing on Russian teens posting on Facebook even as Trump, large media companies, and international organizations pour out a steady stream of false and misleading information is the equivalent of treating a cancer patient for a cold. The problem is more intractable than “Putin did it,” and the sooner policymakers accept this, the sooner they can start thinking about actual solutions.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-21--The World Needs to Change How It Trades Drugs

The World Needs to Change How It Trades Drugs On Saturday , April 4 , six weeks after Donald Trump enjoyed a resounding welcome in a whirlwind tour of India , the U.S. president called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a matter of urgency .
India had just banned the export of an antimalarial drug which the United States wanted .
But the call represented tensions that had more at stake than a bilateral dispute between two countries .
It highlighted the downward spiral the world might plunge into if countries turned protectionist in the time of a pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stockpile medical supplies , it would prevent products , including medicines , from reaching where they are needed most—and make each country vulnerable in an increasingly interconnected world with interwoven supply chains .
The coronavirus was infecting people across the United States .
As the number of confirmed cases rose at an astonishing rate , some health experts claimed that hydroxychloroquine may offer a cure .
Doctors prescribe the drug primarily to patients of malaria , as well as for autoimmune diseases such as lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis .
But it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relief to some COVID-19 patients , although it is too soon to draw firm conclusions .
India makes 70 percent of the world ’ s supply of the drug , and the United States gets nearly half its imports from India .
Trump found the idea of using hydroxychloroquine attractive , even though those promoting it were not physicians .
The catch ?
As India anticipated a rise in the number of domestic coronavirus cases , the country ’ s Directorate General of Foreign Trade had banned the export of hydroxychloroquine .
Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani amplified—even though doctors remain skeptical of its effects on COVID-19 patients.Studies take time , and the world can not wait , with the death toll mounting , markets tanking , and the economy comatose .
But studies take time , and the world can not wait , with the death toll mounting , markets tanking , and the economy comatose .
Trump ’ s impatience was understandable , especially in an election year .
And so on that Saturday , Trump called Modi asking him to lift the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told a news conference in Washington , there would be “ a retaliation.
” India lifted the ban within a day .
To give the reversal a veneer of respectability , India couched the decision in humanitarian terms—the drug would be offered to neighboring countries and to countries severely affected by COVID-19 , a category that presumably included not only China , Italy , Iran , and Spain , but also the United States , which has now surpassed other nations with the largest number of deaths and the highest number of infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two wrongs here , and together , they don ’ t make anything right .
First , Trump prematurely raised hopes about hydroxychloroquine among people haunted by the specter of death .
But as his bullying of 3M and blocking of exports of medical equipment to Canada reveals , his pressure on New Delhi is hardly driven by his support for free markets .
Second , India was wrong ( like many other countries ) in restricting exports of a drug that may be beneficial during a pandemic .
Katherine Eban , whose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Inside Story of the Generic Drug Boom highlighted the problems with India ’ s pharmaceutical sector , told me : “ Governments have a responsibility to secure drugs for their own people .
But the pandemic has highlighted the complications of a globalized drug supply , both for exporters—who don ’ t know how much to hold back—and for importers , whose supplies now seem very uncertain.
” There are also real concerns about the continued supply of products and medicines , partly because countries may hoard drugs during a crisis , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ processes—worries that are not unique to India .
The world depends on a few key exporters : China for personal protection equipment , India for medicines , Malaysia for gloves , other countries for critical parts in the making of ventilators .
It is not easy to ramp up production quickly , and even if it were so , quality concerns can delay timely delivery of products .
China recently imposed curbs on exporting masks and ventilators following complaints from importing countries on quality-control grounds .
That has created problems in India , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kits for speedy tests .
Some countries are concerned about the situation and have begun imposing restrictions on exports of products they consider strategically important , disrupting global flows , although a few have since lifted the restrictions .
As Mona Pinchis-Paulsen , a teaching fellow at Stanford Law School , has noted , by mid-March , some 54 governments around the world had introduced some coronavirus-related export restrictions on medical supplies , often to secure stockpiles .
While international trade law permits governments to restrict trade in times of health emergencies or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unintended consequences because the global economy is far too intertwined for any country to be self-reliant .
As Switzerland discovered recently , Romanian controls on exports led to a shortage of a critical input , slowing down domestic production of ventilators.Trump is promoting a drug of unproven effectiveness which may even harm some patients .
To be sure , no one knows if hydroxychloroquine will work .
It is a 65-year-old off-patent drug , which means many generic manufacturers can produce it , significantly lowering its price .
In the United States , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 .
More than a dozen companies make it in India , where its equivalent price is around 300 rupees ( $ 4 ) .
At present , India manufactures much more than it needs .
Switzerland ’ s Novartis and France ’ s Sanofi also produce the drug , but their prices are much higher , and their capacity is not as vast as the collective capacity in India .
Novartis has committed to donating 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine , by working with the World Health Organization to identify locations around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the medicine immediately .
In any case , Trump is promoting a drug of unproven effectiveness which may even harm some patients .
Anthony Fauci , the immunologist who heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , has described hydroxychloroquine ’ s effectiveness as “ anecdotal.
” There are several other sources for doubts over hydroxychloroquine : A research trial of a closely related drug in Brazil was ended after coronavirus-infected patients who were given the drug developed irregular heartbeats .
Unusually , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence about the drug being used on some patients , removed that guidance on April 7 , adding that no drug is approved to treat COVID-19 .
Even so , New Delhi ’ s sudden ban on the export of hydroxychloroquine unnerved the market .
Dinesh Thakur , a public-health activist who has been critical of the drug industry ’ s practices , told me : “ The Indian generic industry has taken a beating over the last decade rightfully for its problems with compliance and quality .
The last thing the Indian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undermine confidence in India ’ s ability to supply the product in a consistent manner.
” Thakur said there are other important drugs India makes which were affected by the sudden ban , such as bronchodilators , which open the passageway for lungs to breathe and without which ventilators don ’ t work , and painkillers that help manage patients in intensive-care units .
Besides policy uncertainty , there is the matter of quality .
Two fundamental mismatches in the global economy have caused a range of problems in the global supply chain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pisani , who has been researching the proliferation of substandard drugs internationally .
She wrote recently : “ First , we increasingly look to governments to ensure that demand for affordable medicines is met , while relying on profit-seeking companies to supply that demand .
That leads to procurement and production practices that incentivize cost-cutting and undermine product quality .
Second , we want both the price-lowering ( and pollution-outsourcing ) efficiencies of a globalized supply chain , while simultaneously demanding security of supply at the national level .
As the current pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t have it both ways.
” Modi is a highly divisive figure in Indian politics , even though he is widely popular .
When India lifted the ban on hydroxychloroquine ’ s export , the prime minister ’ s critics pounced on him on social media , ridiculing him for caving to U.S. pressure .
Some of Modi ’ s supporters claimed , without offering any evidence , that he had secured a promise from Trump that Indian pharmaceutical companies—such as Ipca Laboratories , which received a U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from good manufacturing practices—that were under a cloud would be able to resume doing business with the United States .
Ipca says the FDA has lifted restrictions it had placed on two of its plants and it can resume exporting hydroxychloroquine to the United States .
Industry watchers dismiss the theory of a broader immunity for Indian companies .
The crucial question , Thakur said , will be which Indian companies provide information about how their drugs are made , processed , packaged and stored , as per their drug master files ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made ) and abbreviated new drug application ( the process by which the ingredient is formulated into a tablet ) if they want the generic drug approved .
India ’ s manufacturing capabilities notwithstanding , U.S. authorities are unlikely to buy drugs from any foreign company that does not meet its criteria.New Delhi ’ s sudden ban on the export of hydroxychloroquine unnerved the market .
For the moment , India has more than adequate supply for its needs to combat malaria .
( The season begins with the onset of monsoons , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annual production of 10 metric tons is set to rise up to 70 metric tons by May .
Domestic manufacturers can produce 350 million tablets a month ; local demand is expected to 100 million tablets , assuming there is no spike in demand to combat COVID-19 .
India exports the surplus .
Can India ramp up production sufficiently fast to meet global needs ?
The process isn ’ t hard , but Eban is cautious : “ Expanding capacity is not an overnight thing .
It can take months .
And it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not just about getting lots of a drug , but about getting lots of a drug that is still being manufactured under good manufacturing practices .
That is where the real challenge lies.
” Indeed , if COVID-19 cases spike in India , and if hydroxychloroquine is scientifically proved to be effective , then India will need the drug for its domestic market .
That was New Delhi ’ s logic when it first restricted exports .
But should countries stop trade in medical products during a pandemic ?
Pinchis-Paulsen added : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but that doesn ’ t make it the right response .
In a pandemic , maybe the rules should push in the opposite direction .
What if instead of an exception that permits discrete trade barriers … there was a provision that required all Members to make trade completely open to address the pandemic ?
” A global pandemic is not the time to start a trade war or settle scores ; pandemics don ’ t know borders , and nations can ’ t build walls to stop microbes from entering a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treat COVID-19 , a fundamental shift in how drugs are made , sold , and distributed to those who need them is inevitable .

On Saturday, April 4, six weeks after Donald Trump enjoyed a resounding welcome in a whirlwind tour of India, the U.S. president called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a matter of urgency. India had just banned the export of an antimalarial drug which the United States wanted. But the call represented tensions that had more at stake than a bilateral dispute between two countries. It highlighted the downward spiral the world might plunge into if countries turned protectionist in the time of a pandemic. For if every country were to stockpile medical supplies, it would prevent products, including medicines, from reaching where they are needed most—and make each country vulnerable in an increasingly interconnected world with interwoven supply chains.
On Saturday, April 4, six weeks after Donald Trump enjoyed a resounding welcome in a whirlwind tour of India, the U.S. president called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a matter of urgency. India had just banned the export of an antimalarial drug which the United States wanted. But the call represented tensions that had more at stake than a bilateral dispute between two countries. It highlighted the downward spiral the world might plunge into if countries turned protectionist in the time of a pandemic. For if every country were to stockpile medical supplies, it would prevent products, including medicines, from reaching where they are needed most—and make each country vulnerable in an increasingly interconnected world with interwoven supply chains.
The coronavirus was infecting people across the United States. As the number of confirmed cases rose at an astonishing rate, some health experts claimed that hydroxychloroquine may offer a cure. Doctors prescribe the drug primarily to patients of malaria, as well as for autoimmune diseases such as lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis. But it has also shown some early promise in providing relief to some COVID-19 patients, although it is too soon to draw firm conclusions. India makes 70 percent of the world’s supply of the drug, and the United States gets nearly half its imports from India.
Trump found the idea of using hydroxychloroquine attractive, even though those promoting it were not physicians. The catch? As India anticipated a rise in the number of domestic coronavirus cases, the country’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade had banned the export of hydroxychloroquine. Trump had been talking up the drug—a view his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani amplified—even though doctors remain skeptical of its effects on COVID-19 patients.Studies take time, and the world cannot wait, with the death toll mounting, markets tanking, and the economy comatose.
But studies take time, and the world cannot wait, with the death toll mounting, markets tanking, and the economy comatose. Trump’s impatience was understandable, especially in an election year. And so on that Saturday, Trump called Modi asking him to lift the ban; if not, as he told a news conference in Washington, there would be “a retaliation.”
India lifted the ban within a day. To give the reversal a veneer of respectability, India couched the decision in humanitarian terms—the drug would be offered to neighboring countries and to countries severely affected by COVID-19, a category that presumably included not only China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, but also the United States, which has now surpassed other nations with the largest number of deaths and the highest number of infected people in the world.
There are two wrongs here, and together, they don’t make anything right. First, Trump prematurely raised hopes about hydroxychloroquine among people haunted by the specter of death. But as his bullying of 3M and blocking of exports of medical equipment to Canada reveals, his pressure on New Delhi is hardly driven by his support for free markets. Second, India was wrong (like many other countries) in restricting exports of a drug that may be beneficial during a pandemic. Katherine Eban, whose award-winning book Bottle of Lies: The Inside Story of the Generic Drug Boom highlighted the problems with India’s pharmaceutical sector, told me: “Governments have a responsibility to secure drugs for their own people. But the pandemic has highlighted the complications of a globalized drug supply, both for exporters—who don’t know how much to hold back—and for importers, whose supplies now seem very uncertain.”
There are also real concerns about the continued supply of products and medicines, partly because countries may hoard drugs during a crisis, and partly because of the quality of manufacturing processes—worries that are not unique to India. The world depends on a few key exporters: China for personal protection equipment, India for medicines, Malaysia for gloves, other countries for critical parts in the making of ventilators. It is not easy to ramp up production quickly, and even if it were so, quality concerns can delay timely delivery of products. China recently imposed curbs on exporting masks and ventilators following complaints from importing countries on quality-control grounds. That has created problems in India, which was relying on China for antibody kits for speedy tests. Some countries are concerned about the situation and have begun imposing restrictions on exports of products they consider strategically important, disrupting global flows, although a few have since lifted the restrictions. As Mona Pinchis-Paulsen, a teaching fellow at Stanford Law School, has noted, by mid-March, some 54 governments around the world had introduced some coronavirus-related export restrictions on medical supplies, often to secure stockpiles.
While international trade law permits governments to restrict trade in times of health emergencies or other crises, such restrictions can have unintended consequences because the global economy is far too intertwined for any country to be self-reliant. As Switzerland discovered recently, Romanian controls on exports led to a shortage of a critical input, slowing down domestic production of ventilators.Trump is promoting a drug of unproven effectiveness which may even harm some patients.
To be sure, no one knows if hydroxychloroquine will work. It is a 65-year-old off-patent drug, which means many generic manufacturers can produce it, significantly lowering its price. In the United States, a bottle of 50 capsules costs $40. More than a dozen companies make it in India, where its equivalent price is around 300 rupees ($4). At present, India manufactures much more than it needs. Switzerland’s Novartis and France’s Sanofi also produce the drug, but their prices are much higher, and their capacity is not as vast as the collective capacity in India. Novartis has committed to donating 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine, by working with the World Health Organization to identify locations around the world where patients need broad access to the medicine immediately.
In any case, Trump is promoting a drug of unproven effectiveness which may even harm some patients. Anthony Fauci, the immunologist who heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has described hydroxychloroquine’s effectiveness as “anecdotal.” There are several other sources for doubts over hydroxychloroquine: A research trial of a closely related drug in Brazil was ended after coronavirus-infected patients who were given the drug developed irregular heartbeats. Unusually, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which had earlier mentioned the anecdotal evidence about the drug being used on some patients, removed that guidance on April 7, adding that no drug is approved to treat COVID-19.
Even so, New Delhi’s sudden ban on the export of hydroxychloroquine unnerved the market. Dinesh Thakur, a public-health activist who has been critical of the drug industry’s practices, told me: “The Indian generic industry has taken a beating over the last decade rightfully for its problems with compliance and quality. The last thing the Indian government ought to have done is to undermine confidence in India’s ability to supply the product in a consistent manner.” Thakur said there are other important drugs India makes which were affected by the sudden ban, such as bronchodilators, which open the passageway for lungs to breathe and without which ventilators don’t work, and painkillers that help manage patients in intensive-care units.
Besides policy uncertainty, there is the matter of quality. Two fundamental mismatches in the global economy have caused a range of problems in the global supply chain for medicines, according to epidemiologist Elizabeth Pisani, who has been researching the proliferation of substandard drugs internationally. She wrote recently: “First, we increasingly look to governments to ensure that demand for affordable medicines is met, while relying on profit-seeking companies to supply that demand. That leads to procurement and production practices that incentivize cost-cutting and undermine product quality. Second, we want both the price-lowering (and pollution-outsourcing) efficiencies of a globalized supply chain, while simultaneously demanding security of supply at the national level. As the current pandemic is teaching us, you can’t have it both ways.”
Modi is a highly divisive figure in Indian politics, even though he is widely popular. When India lifted the ban on hydroxychloroquine’s export, the prime minister’s critics pounced on him on social media, ridiculing him for caving to U.S. pressure. Some of Modi’s supporters claimed, without offering any evidence, that he had secured a promise from Trump that Indian pharmaceutical companies—such as Ipca Laboratories, which received a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warning in 2015 for deviating from good manufacturing practices—that were under a cloud would be able to resume doing business with the United States. Ipca says the FDA has lifted restrictions it had placed on two of its plants and it can resume exporting hydroxychloroquine to the United States. Industry watchers dismiss the theory of a broader immunity for Indian companies.
The crucial question, Thakur said, will be which Indian companies provide information about how their drugs are made, processed, packaged and stored, as per their drug master files (a process by which active ingredients are made) and abbreviated new drug application (the process by which the ingredient is formulated into a tablet) if they want the generic drug approved. India’s manufacturing capabilities notwithstanding, U.S. authorities are unlikely to buy drugs from any foreign company that does not meet its criteria.New Delhi’s sudden ban on the export of hydroxychloroquine unnerved the market.
For the moment, India has more than adequate supply for its needs to combat malaria. (The season begins with the onset of monsoons, around June.) India’s annual production of 10 metric tons is set to rise up to 70 metric tons by May. Domestic manufacturers can produce 350 million tablets a month; local demand is expected to 100 million tablets, assuming there is no spike in demand to combat COVID-19. India exports the surplus.
Can India ramp up production sufficiently fast to meet global needs? The process isn’t hard, but Eban is cautious: “Expanding capacity is not an overnight thing. It can take months. And it can also impact quality. This is not just about getting lots of a drug, but about getting lots of a drug that is still being manufactured under good manufacturing practices. That is where the real challenge lies.”
Indeed, if COVID-19 cases spike in India, and if hydroxychloroquine is scientifically proved to be effective, then India will need the drug for its domestic market. That was New Delhi’s logic when it first restricted exports. But should countries stop trade in medical products during a pandemic? Pinchis-Paulsen added: “[Trade restrictions] may be legal, but that doesn’t make it the right response. In a pandemic, maybe the rules should push in the opposite direction. What if instead of an exception that permits discrete trade barriers … there was a provision that required all Members to make trade completely open to address the pandemic?”
A global pandemic is not the time to start a trade war or settle scores; pandemics don’t know borders, and nations can’t build walls to stop microbes from entering a country. Whether or not hydroxychloroquine can treat COVID-19, a fundamental shift in how drugs are made, sold, and distributed to those who need them is inevitable.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-21--The Hidden Flaw in Sweden’s Anti-Lockdown Strategy

STOCKHOLM—Sweden quickly became an object of the world ’ s attention for its decision to forgo a government-mandated lockdown to combat the coronavirus pandemic .
Instead the country chose to lean on its high-trust culture and tradition of citizens independently following authorities ’ recommendations .
But there was one major overlooked problem with that approach—one that ’ s increasingly reflected in the country ’ s medical data : Sweden ’ s distinctive national culture and traditions , and the government ’ s efforts to amplify and support them , aren ’ t equally accessible to its increasingly diverse residents .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are not as tuned in to the mainstream culture or to authorities ’ messaging around the pandemic .
Sweden ’ s Public Health Agency recently conducted a survey , the results of which were published on April 14 .
It showed that a disproportionate number of immigrants , in particular from Somalia , Iraq , and Syria , were among the COVID-19 cases registered at Swedish hospitals .
For instance , while Somali Swedes make up just over half a percent of the national population , so far they make up nearly 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The agency ’ s figures came hot on the heels of a survey by Stockholm health authorities , which showed that some of the capital ’ s immigrant-dense suburbs were among the hardest hit by the virus .
The Rinkeby-Kista district in the north was the worst affected , with 238 confirmed cases as of April 6 .
That is the equivalent of 47 cases per 10,000 residents , which is more than three times higher than the regional average of 13 cases per 10,000 residents .
“ In the future , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out how this situation came about , ” said Per Brinkemo , who worked as a journalist for 20 years before becoming involved with integration issues , working with a Somali community organization in the Rosengard suburb of Malmo , Sweden ’ s third-largest city .
He believes there is a general unwillingness among Swedish authorities to consider how cultural differences impact people ’ s behaviors .
After writing the book Between Clan and State : Somalis in Sweden in 2014 , Brinkemo toured the country , holding seminars for bureaucrats and local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Somalis ’ and others ’ integration has often been marked by a clash between “ the extremely collectivist structures of the native culture and the hyperindividualism of Sweden.
” But there is a strong aversion in Sweden for the government or authorities to differentiate between people of different ethnic backgrounds , Brinkemo said .
“ It ’ s a well-intentioned attitude but can prove dangerous.
” Sweden ’ s Civil Contingencies Agency , which is responsible for public safety and emergency management , has acknowledged that there were delays in translating information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Over the past few weeks , the agency has rolled out a campaign to get information out to immigrant communities .
“ Better late than never , ” Brinkemo said , while also insisting that information needs to be not just directly translated but also conveyed in different ways to different groups .
Brinkemo described the challenges involved in trying to inform immigrants in Malmo about the Swedish welfare state .
When he arranged public seminars at a community center , hardly anyone attended , despite written advertisements—until he and his colleagues personally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which the seminars were full .
“ I was baffled , but my Somali colleagues weren ’ t surprised .
They explained that they come from a society with a strong oral tradition , that they have little experience of interacting with public agencies in their home country , and tend to trust information that comes directly from a known source , ” he said .
“ By contrast , here in Sweden , we are accustomed to written communication .
We generally trust that official information is correct , and we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and know how to act on it.
” Brinkemo believes that when the government and expert authorities convey information and guidance around the COVID-19 pandemic , it will likely not filter through to a large share of the immigrant population .
Partly because many do not follow Swedish media and partly because the language used is abstract and presumes a particular outcome with regards to how people will act on it .
Indeed , the subtleties of bureaucratese are not always self-evident to native-born Swedes , either .
When the state epidemiologist Anders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to clarify what a recommendation from the Public Health Agency , which is central to formulating Sweden ’ s strategy , entailed , he replied : “ What we are talking about here is the Swedish culture , how Swedes interpret recommendations from the authorities .
I think most people see it [ a recommendation ] as a very clear advice on how to do this in the best possible manner .
… By contrast , if you use the Swedish word for ‘ shall , ’ that means there is a legal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s why we instead use the word ‘ recommended ’ quite a lot.
” Tegnell agrees that one needs to address different groups in different ways .
“ Any country with some form of public health strategy in place knows that and when it comes to immigrant communities , we have established good communication with them , for instance in relation to the national vaccine program , ” Tegnell said , adding that it is too early to draw any conclusions as to why some foreign-born Swedes run a higher risk of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parameters at play , ” he said .
But he balks at the idea that the Public Health Agency ’ s reliance on a set of norms that have taken centuries to cement is in any way a factor in explaining why Swedish citizens born in Africa , the Middle East , and elsewhere are now overrepresented in the statistics of COVID-19 cases .
“ I think that ’ s a conclusion you definitively can not draw yet , ” Tegnell said .
Many in Sweden ’ s immigrant-dense areas agree that there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with cultural differences being just one aspect .
In the northern Stockholm suburb of Tensta , Somali-born Ahmed Abdirahman was among the first to note that the coronavirus was spreading in his community .
“ Many foreign-born Swedes live in segregated suburbs where up to 80 percent of residents have immigrant backgrounds , ” Abdirahman said .
“ For instance , in Stockholm more than half of Somalis live in just a single district , so it ’ s not surprising that once the virus started spreading in that area , Somalis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Abdirahman added : “ There are also relatively high levels of ill health and household crowding in these suburbs , and multigenerational households are quite common due to low-income levels .
In addition , the potential for exposure to the virus is high since many hold so-called low-skilled jobs , for instance as taxi drivers.
” Last week , Abdirahman , who is well-known in political circles for organizing a high-profile annual political festival that takes place in a Stockholm suburb , met with Sweden ’ s deputy prime minister , Isabella Lovin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that sufficient measures were not taken in time and mentioned some new initiatives , such as the city stepping in to offer accommodation for elderly people to help them self-isolate .
But for the writer and activist Nuri Kino , who has been focused on the pandemic ’ s impact on immigrants and in particular on his own community of Assyrians/Syriacs in Sweden , it is still hard to get certain messages across to the authorities and the media because of a prevalent fear of stigmatizing immigrant communities .
“ I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact that many of those who live in these hard-hit areas work in nursery homes and as home carers and they do not have enough protective equipment , ” said Kino , who himself ran a home care service firm for two years .
“ I understand this is a sensitive matter because it can lead to a blame game , but there ’ s a risk factor here that we should at least consider.
” In early April , Swedish media reported that a third of all elderly care homes in Stockholm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April 16 , the Public Health Agency said a third of all COVID-19 deaths in Sweden—at the time , there were 1,333 confirmed fatalities—had occurred at care homes .
While a large proportion of the workforce at those homes is made up of immigrants—28 percent are foreign-born , and in Stockholm the figure is 55 percent , according to the National Board of Health and Welfare—drawing a link here would be “ purely speculative , ” according to Tegnell .
He said there is an ongoing inquiry examining why the virus has entered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until it is concluded “ we ’ d best not point fingers.
” He does not rule out the need to impose different measures in different parts of Stockholm in the future to meet the specific challenges in various areas .
However , the prevailing principle of public health in Sweden seems likely to remain “ freedom under responsibility , ” according to which as long as a majority takes individual responsibility for following recommendations , there is no need to rob everyone of basic liberties .
For Brinkemo , the author , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Sweden—whether native or foreign-born—intuitively grasps that principle , but it is something that can be learned , he said .
A sign that it is happening within immigrant communities is that many have , indeed , taken it on themselves to spread the messages of social distancing and the recommendations issued by the authorities , from Somali Swedish doctors posting informative videos on Facebook to local celebrities using their social media channels to talk about the pandemic .
“ That is really the way forward—trusted sources breaking down the bureaucratese and communicating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pamphlets and posters , ” Brinkemo said .
“ All we can hope for now is that it will be part and parcel of the national strategy when the next pandemic comes around .
”

STOCKHOLM—Sweden quickly became an object of the world’s attention for its decision to forgo a government-mandated lockdown to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Instead the country chose to lean on its high-trust culture and tradition of citizens independently following authorities’ recommendations.
STOCKHOLM—Sweden quickly became an object of the world’s attention for its decision to forgo a government-mandated lockdown to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Instead the country chose to lean on its high-trust culture and tradition of citizens independently following authorities’ recommendations.
But there was one major overlooked problem with that approach—one that’s increasingly reflected in the country’s medical data: Sweden’s distinctive national culture and traditions, and the government’s efforts to amplify and support them, aren’t equally accessible to its increasingly diverse residents. The most segregated segments of the population are not as tuned in to the mainstream culture or to authorities’ messaging around the pandemic.
Sweden’s Public Health Agency recently conducted a survey, the results of which were published on April 14. It showed that a disproportionate number of immigrants, in particular from Somalia, Iraq, and Syria, were among the COVID-19 cases registered at Swedish hospitals. For instance, while Somali Swedes make up just over half a percent of the national population, so far they make up nearly 5 percent of hospitals’ confirmed cases.
The agency’s figures came hot on the heels of a survey by Stockholm health authorities, which showed that some of the capital’s immigrant-dense suburbs were among the hardest hit by the virus. The Rinkeby-Kista district in the north was the worst affected, with 238 confirmed cases as of April 6. That is the equivalent of 47 cases per 10,000 residents, which is more than three times higher than the regional average of 13 cases per 10,000 residents.
“In the future, we’ll need proper research to figure out how this situation came about,” said Per Brinkemo, who worked as a journalist for 20 years before becoming involved with integration issues, working with a Somali community organization in the Rosengard suburb of Malmo, Sweden’s third-largest city. He believes there is a general unwillingness among Swedish authorities to consider how cultural differences impact people’s behaviors.
After writing the book Between Clan and State: Somalis in Sweden in 2014, Brinkemo toured the country, holding seminars for bureaucrats and local politicians about its basic thesis, namely that Somalis’ and others’ integration has often been marked by a clash between “the extremely collectivist structures of the native culture and the hyperindividualism of Sweden.” But there is a strong aversion in Sweden for the government or authorities to differentiate between people of different ethnic backgrounds, Brinkemo said. “It’s a well-intentioned attitude but can prove dangerous.”
Sweden’s Civil Contingencies Agency, which is responsible for public safety and emergency management, has acknowledged that there were delays in translating information about the virus to other languages. Over the past few weeks, the agency has rolled out a campaign to get information out to immigrant communities. “Better late than never,” Brinkemo said, while also insisting that information needs to be not just directly translated but also conveyed in different ways to different groups.
Brinkemo described the challenges involved in trying to inform immigrants in Malmo about the Swedish welfare state. When he arranged public seminars at a community center, hardly anyone attended, despite written advertisements—until he and his colleagues personally called people to invite them, after which the seminars were full. “I was baffled, but my Somali colleagues weren’t surprised. They explained that they come from a society with a strong oral tradition, that they have little experience of interacting with public agencies in their home country, and tend to trust information that comes directly from a known source,” he said. “By contrast, here in Sweden, we are accustomed to written communication. We generally trust that official information is correct, and we’re used to interpreting authorities’ instructions and know how to act on it.”
Brinkemo believes that when the government and expert authorities convey information and guidance around the COVID-19 pandemic, it will likely not filter through to a large share of the immigrant population. Partly because many do not follow Swedish media and partly because the language used is abstract and presumes a particular outcome with regards to how people will act on it.
Indeed, the subtleties of bureaucratese are not always self-evident to native-born Swedes, either. When the state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell was asked at a press conference to clarify what a recommendation from the Public Health Agency, which is central to formulating Sweden’s strategy, entailed, he replied: “What we are talking about here is the Swedish culture, how Swedes interpret recommendations from the authorities. I think most people see it [a recommendation] as a very clear advice on how to do this in the best possible manner. … By contrast, if you use the Swedish word for ‘shall,’ that means there is a legal obligation to do something, and that’s why we instead use the word ‘recommended’ quite a lot.”
Tegnell agrees that one needs to address different groups in different ways. “Any country with some form of public health strategy in place knows that and when it comes to immigrant communities, we have established good communication with them, for instance in relation to the national vaccine program,” Tegnell said, adding that it is too early to draw any conclusions as to why some foreign-born Swedes run a higher risk of contracting COVID-19.
“There are many parameters at play,” he said. But he balks at the idea that the Public Health Agency’s reliance on a set of norms that have taken centuries to cement is in any way a factor in explaining why Swedish citizens born in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere are now overrepresented in the statistics of COVID-19 cases. “I think that’s a conclusion you definitively cannot draw yet,” Tegnell said.
Many in Sweden’s immigrant-dense areas agree that there is a complex set of factors involved, with cultural differences being just one aspect. In the northern Stockholm suburb of Tensta, Somali-born Ahmed Abdirahman was among the first to note that the coronavirus was spreading in his community. “Many foreign-born Swedes live in segregated suburbs where up to 80 percent of residents have immigrant backgrounds,” Abdirahman said. “For instance, in Stockholm more than half of Somalis live in just a single district, so it’s not surprising that once the virus started spreading in that area, Somalis quickly became overrepresented in the statistics.” Abdirahman added: “There are also relatively high levels of ill health and household crowding in these suburbs, and multigenerational households are quite common due to low-income levels. In addition, the potential for exposure to the virus is high since many hold so-called low-skilled jobs, for instance as taxi drivers.”
Last week, Abdirahman, who is well-known in political circles for organizing a high-profile annual political festival that takes place in a Stockholm suburb, met with Sweden’s deputy prime minister, Isabella Lovin. She said she regretted the fact that sufficient measures were not taken in time and mentioned some new initiatives, such as the city stepping in to offer accommodation for elderly people to help them self-isolate.
But for the writer and activist Nuri Kino, who has been focused on the pandemic’s impact on immigrants and in particular on his own community of Assyrians/Syriacs in Sweden, it is still hard to get certain messages across to the authorities and the media because of a prevalent fear of stigmatizing immigrant communities. “I’ve tried to raise the alarm over the fact that many of those who live in these hard-hit areas work in nursery homes and as home carers and they do not have enough protective equipment,” said Kino, who himself ran a home care service firm for two years. “I understand this is a sensitive matter because it can lead to a blame game, but there’s a risk factor here that we should at least consider.”
In early April, Swedish media reported that a third of all elderly care homes in Stockholm had recorded cases of COVID-19. On April 16, the Public Health Agency said a third of all COVID-19 deaths in Sweden—at the time, there were 1,333 confirmed fatalities—had occurred at care homes. While a large proportion of the workforce at those homes is made up of immigrants—28 percent are foreign-born, and in Stockholm the figure is 55 percent, according to the National Board of Health and Welfare—drawing a link here would be “purely speculative,” according to Tegnell.
He said there is an ongoing inquiry examining why the virus has entered Sweden’s elderly care system and until it is concluded “we’d best not point fingers.” He does not rule out the need to impose different measures in different parts of Stockholm in the future to meet the specific challenges in various areas. However, the prevailing principle of public health in Sweden seems likely to remain “freedom under responsibility,” according to which as long as a majority takes individual responsibility for following recommendations, there is no need to rob everyone of basic liberties.
For Brinkemo, the author, it cannot be presumed that everyone in Sweden—whether native or foreign-born—intuitively grasps that principle, but it is something that can be learned, he said. A sign that it is happening within immigrant communities is that many have, indeed, taken it on themselves to spread the messages of social distancing and the recommendations issued by the authorities, from Somali Swedish doctors posting informative videos on Facebook to local celebrities using their social media channels to talk about the pandemic.
“That is really the way forward—trusted sources breaking down the bureaucratese and communicating with people orally rather than through official pamphlets and posters,” Brinkemo said. “All we can hope for now is that it will be part and parcel of the national strategy when the next pandemic comes around.”