foreignpolicy--2020-03-30--In the Coronavirus, Putin May Have Met His Match

In the Coronavirus , Putin May Have Met His Match Back in January , when Vladimir Putin announced plans to change the constitution as part of a bid to prolong his rule , few obstacles lay in the Russian president ’ s path .
Today , Putin finds himself in a very different place .
Moscow is now under a citywide quarantine , and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is pushing regional governors to adopt similar measures as the coronavirus pandemic has spread , killing tens of thousands of people around the globe and sinking the world into what many analysts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse than the 2008-2009 financial crisis .
And in a sign of the virus ’ s increasing severity and public concerns over its spread , Putin bowed last week to growing pressure to delay an April vote on extending his rule after being warned that the outbreak in the country was far worse than official data suggested .
“ It ’ s a recognition of how difficult the situation could get in Russia .
They were waiting as long as they could to decide on whether to delay the vote , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University College London .
“ [ The Kremlin ] wanted to make the vote as fast as possible , because they know public opinion about it will only sour over time.
” [ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
For the Kremlin , the stakes could be even higher .
Three months ago , despite a falling standard of living and an economy hit by Western sanctions , Putin had succeeded in marginalizing the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media as he refashioned state structures to consolidate his hold on power over the last 20 years .
With few challenges left on his path , the Kremlin ’ s plans to potentially extend Putin ’ s presidency until 2036 seemed like a fait accompli .
Today , not only does COVID-19 risk overwhelming the country ’ s underfunded health system , but Moscow must also withstand the added pressure on its finances from an oil price war that it is waging against Saudi Arabia , which could shake its economy as its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changing the constitution to curbing the rapid spread of the coronavirus across Russia .
The growing outbreak now presents an unexpected test for the institutions and the system that Putin has built .
While the Kremlin has adapted in recent years to threats both at home and abroad—restructuring its economy to better withstand sanctions , waging a more assertive foreign policy across the globe , and launching a national program to raise living standards—fighting the spread of the coronavirus is one that the Russian system may not be equipped to fully meet .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus effectively in a centralized way .
The system needs to prove that it ’ s efficient enough to deal with a serious challenge like this , ” said Nikolai Petrov , a senior research fellow at Chatham House and a professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow .
“ Everyone has serious doubts , so it ’ s an important crash test.
” Russian officials once touted their success in holding off the virus .
Now cases are rising as their statistics are being questioned .
For a time Russia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other nations around the world .
Official numbers remained comparatively low , fueling suspicion that the true number of cases could be dramatically higher .
The Kremlin denied accusations that it was massaging its coronavirus statistics , but new testing procedures brought in last week also cleared a testing backlog , and Russia has since seen a spike in cases , which have now reached 1,836 and continue to climb each day .
As the number of cases has risen , the authorities have slowly changed strategy .
Despite taking strict steps in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus from Asia , such as shutting down Russia ’ s border with China , limiting flights , and monitoring Chinese residents who could be infected , the government has largely resisted the type of measures to contain the coronavirus seen across Europe .
It wasn ’ t until last week—following a choreographed visit to a hospital on the outskirts of Moscow by Putin , where he donned a yellow protective suit—that the response began to change .
Later comments made by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin , who also heads a coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that official figures were misleading and that Russia was facing a “ serious situation ” also paved the way for Putin ’ s shift .
“ The fact is that testing volume is very low and no one on earth knows the real picture , ” Sobyanin said during a meeting with Putin .
But while the official response has begun to view the spread of coronavirus as a more serious threat , measures taken by the government appear to reflect political priorities over public health and safety concerns .
Putin did not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April vote to impose a full-scale quarantine on Russia .
Instead the Russian leader announced a week of paid holiday , introduced smaller-scale measures to boost the country ’ s economy , and insisted that Russians take the spread of the virus more seriously .
“ It looks like Putin is not fighting against the virus , but against his decreasing ratings , ” said Tatiana Stanovaya , the founder of the political consultancy R.Politik and a scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center .
“ The problem of the Russian authorities is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak .
They think stricter measures will make it look like the state is losing control and can ’ t manage the situation.
” Russia has now sealed its borders , canceled sporting events , and closed schools , but the type of restrictions that many experts say are necessary for rolling back the virus have been implemented piecemeal by officials in a move to insulate Putin from any political blowback .
Moscow ’ s lockdown brought in over the weekend was issued by Sobyanin as Muscovites continued to go out to bars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an independent Russian news outlet , the decision to shut down the city came as many residents used the paid time off announced by Putin to barbecue and picnic outside .
Similarly , Mishustin , the prime minister , is working on the practicalities of how to roll out a nationwide lockdown , keeping Putin ’ s fingerprints out of public view .
The mixed messaging highlights the tension between the Kremlin ’ s need to curb the virus without undoing its own political standing in the process .
The grand bargain of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide stability , more efficient governance , and a heightened global standing in exchange for accepting the Kremlin ’ s authoritarian rule .
But declining incomes over the years and public frustration over corruption have eroded that bargain , and the spread of the coronavirus has exposed the public ’ s distrust of the authorities as they ’ ve sought to deal with the outbreak .
In the face of these problems , the Kremlin may turn to two familiar methods to manage the pandemic on its own terms : surveillance and propaganda @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an opportunity to test new powers and technology , particularly a 170,000-camera facial recognition system in Moscow .
Local police already claim to have caught and fined 200 people for breaching quarantine and self-isolation orders in the capital .
The government said it is expanding on ways to use the system to track the spread of the coronavirus , but privacy and free-speech advocates worry the government is building up its surveillance capabilities for when the pandemic slows .
As part of the lockdown , Moscow city authorities have also begun rolling out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to scan a code in order to leave their home during the lockdown .
Currently , Moscow is the center of the outbreak in Russia , but should the virus spread extensively to other regions , the authorities could look to use other new technologies to manage panic and political fallout , said Andrei Soldatov , a Russian investigative journalist and expert on the Russian security service ’ s use of surveillance technology .
In particular , the use of the Kremlin ’ s so-called sovereign internet , which could allow the authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rest of the world , but also close off the internet from a particular region to the rest of the country .
“ If you had a big influx of infected people in an area , this could lead the authorities to shut down the internet in a region to prevent information of an outbreak from spreading around the country , ” Soldatov said .
“ We don ’ t see it yet , but it ’ s a direction things could move in.
” In the meantime , managing public opinion appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state media and television continue to put an optimistic slant on the official handling of the outbreak and are keen to highlight the failures by foreign governments in handling the virus .
Likewise , a great deal of coverage was devoted to medical equipment that Russia dispatched to Italy—a gesture designed to show Moscow ’ s confidence in its own approach to the crisis , despite the fact that Italian officials later said 80 percent of the aid was “ useless.
” Beyond that , the authorities have looked to distort and manipulate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Several elderly patients infected with the virus later had their deaths reclassified as due to an underlying condition , such as a blood clot , not from COVID-19 , in order to keep the death toll low .
Despite its tools , the Kremlin ’ s ability to shape public opinion is increasingly tenuous , said Petrov of Chatham House .
Trust in state media is low and has been slipping for years , and a recent poll from the Levada Center , an independent Russian pollster , found that 59 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the official figures on coronavirus .
This presents a major challenge for the government as the infection rate continues to climb .
According to Petrov , the Russian government must find a way to shape public opinion among a distrustful public , while avoiding pushback from a not-always-compliant population over increasingly strict measures , such as those seen in China to curb the spread of the coronavirus .
“ In a way , it ’ s the worst qualities of the Western and Chinese models , ” Petrov said .
“ It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work with .
”

Back in January, when Vladimir Putin announced plans to change the constitution as part of a bid to prolong his rule, few obstacles lay in the Russian president’s path.
Back in January, when Vladimir Putin announced plans to change the constitution as part of a bid to prolong his rule, few obstacles lay in the Russian president’s path.
Today, Putin finds himself in a very different place. Moscow is now under a citywide quarantine, and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is pushing regional governors to adopt similar measures as the coronavirus pandemic has spread, killing tens of thousands of people around the globe and sinking the world into what many analysts predict will be a global recession far worse than the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
And in a sign of the virus’s increasing severity and public concerns over its spread, Putin bowed last week to growing pressure to delay an April vote on extending his rule after being warned that the outbreak in the country was far worse than official data suggested.
“It’s a recognition of how difficult the situation could get in Russia. They were waiting as long as they could to decide on whether to delay the vote,” said Ben Noble, a Russia expert at University College London. “[The Kremlin] wanted to make the vote as fast as possible, because they know public opinion about it will only sour over time.”
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
For the Kremlin, the stakes could be even higher. Three months ago, despite a falling standard of living and an economy hit by Western sanctions, Putin had succeeded in marginalizing the country’s political opposition and silencing critical media as he refashioned state structures to consolidate his hold on power over the last 20 years. With few challenges left on his path, the Kremlin’s plans to potentially extend Putin’s presidency until 2036 seemed like a fait accompli.
Today, not only does COVID-19 risk overwhelming the country’s underfunded health system, but Moscow must also withstand the added pressure on its finances from an oil price war that it is waging against Saudi Arabia, which could shake its economy as its government shifts from the political considerations of changing the constitution to curbing the rapid spread of the coronavirus across Russia. The growing outbreak now presents an unexpected test for the institutions and the system that Putin has built. While the Kremlin has adapted in recent years to threats both at home and abroad—restructuring its economy to better withstand sanctions, waging a more assertive foreign policy across the globe, and launching a national program to raise living standards—fighting the spread of the coronavirus is one that the Russian system may not be equipped to fully meet.
“You can’t fight against coronavirus effectively in a centralized way. The system needs to prove that it’s efficient enough to deal with a serious challenge like this,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow at Chatham House and a professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “Everyone has serious doubts, so it’s an important crash test.”
Read More Medical staff wearing protective suits Medical staff wearing protective suits Fortress Russia Begins to Show Cracks as Coronavirus Spreads Russian officials once touted their success in holding off the virus. Now cases are rising as their statistics are being questioned. Dispatch | Reid Standish A visitor views an exhibit of cluster bomb remnants at the Cooperative Orthotic and Prosthetic Enterprise Visitor Center in Vientiane, Laos, on July 11. A visitor views an exhibit of cluster bomb remnants at the Cooperative Orthotic and Prosthetic Enterprise Visitor Center in Vientiane, Laos, on July 11. Ukraine Can Learn From Southeast Asia Cambodia and Laos have direct experience with the aftermath of U.S. cluster bombs, now deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine. Analysis | Verena Hölzl Vacationers on the shore of the Caspian Sea watch the parade in honor of the Day of the Navy of the Russian Federation in Kaspiysk, Russia. Vacationers on the shore of the Caspian Sea watch the parade in honor of the Day of the Navy of the Russian Federation in Kaspiysk, Russia. The Caspian Sea Is a Sanctions-Busting Paradise Ghost voyages and dark port calls by Russian and Iranian vessels are enabling both countries to circumvent Western sanctions and thrive in a shadow economy. Analysis | Elisabeth Braw
For a time Russia remained an outlier as the coronavirus hit other nations around the world. Official numbers remained comparatively low, fueling suspicion that the true number of cases could be dramatically higher. The Kremlin denied accusations that it was massaging its coronavirus statistics, but new testing procedures brought in last week also cleared a testing backlog, and Russia has since seen a spike in cases, which have now reached 1,836 and continue to climb each day. As the number of cases has risen, the authorities have slowly changed strategy. Despite taking strict steps in the winter to halt the spread of the virus from Asia, such as shutting down Russia’s border with China, limiting flights, and monitoring Chinese residents who could be infected, the government has largely resisted the type of measures to contain the coronavirus seen across Europe. It wasn’t until last week—following a choreographed visit to a hospital on the outskirts of Moscow by Putin, where he donned a yellow protective suit—that the response began to change. Later comments made by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who also heads a coronavirus task force, in which he said that official figures were misleading and that Russia was facing a “serious situation” also paved the way for Putin’s shift.
“The fact is that testing volume is very low and no one on earth knows the real picture,” Sobyanin said during a meeting with Putin.
But while the official response has begun to view the spread of coronavirus as a more serious threat, measures taken by the government appear to reflect political priorities over public health and safety concerns. Putin did not use his speech last week delaying the April vote to impose a full-scale quarantine on Russia. Instead the Russian leader announced a week of paid holiday, introduced smaller-scale measures to boost the country’s economy, and insisted that Russians take the spread of the virus more seriously.
“It looks like Putin is not fighting against the virus, but against his decreasing ratings,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the political consultancy R.Politik and a scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “The problem of the Russian authorities is that they are afraid to be seen as weak. They think stricter measures will make it look like the state is losing control and can’t manage the situation.”
Russia has now sealed its borders, canceled sporting events, and closed schools, but the type of restrictions that many experts say are necessary for rolling back the virus have been implemented piecemeal by officials in a move to insulate Putin from any political blowback. Moscow’s lockdown brought in over the weekend was issued by Sobyanin as Muscovites continued to go out to bars and restaurants. According to Meduza, an independent Russian news outlet, the decision to shut down the city came as many residents used the paid time off announced by Putin to barbecue and picnic outside. Similarly, Mishustin, the prime minister, is working on the practicalities of how to roll out a nationwide lockdown, keeping Putin’s fingerprints out of public view.
The mixed messaging highlights the tension between the Kremlin’s need to curb the virus without undoing its own political standing in the process. The grand bargain of Putin’s rule has been to provide stability, more efficient governance, and a heightened global standing in exchange for accepting the Kremlin’s authoritarian rule. But declining incomes over the years and public frustration over corruption have eroded that bargain, and the spread of the coronavirus has exposed the public’s distrust of the authorities as they’ve sought to deal with the outbreak.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
In the face of these problems, the Kremlin may turn to two familiar methods to manage the pandemic on its own terms: surveillance and propaganda.
COVID-19 has already given Russian authorities an opportunity to test new powers and technology, particularly a 170,000-camera facial recognition system in Moscow. Local police already claim to have caught and fined 200 people for breaching quarantine and self-isolation orders in the capital. The government said it is expanding on ways to use the system to track the spread of the coronavirus, but privacy and free-speech advocates worry the government is building up its surveillance capabilities for when the pandemic slows. As part of the lockdown, Moscow city authorities have also begun rolling out a QR-code system, where residents need to scan a code in order to leave their home during the lockdown.
Currently, Moscow is the center of the outbreak in Russia, but should the virus spread extensively to other regions, the authorities could look to use other new technologies to manage panic and political fallout, said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist and expert on the Russian security service’s use of surveillance technology. In particular, the use of the Kremlin’s so-called sovereign internet, which could allow the authorities to firewall off the internet from the rest of the world, but also close off the internet from a particular region to the rest of the country.
“If you had a big influx of infected people in an area, this could lead the authorities to shut down the internet in a region to prevent information of an outbreak from spreading around the country,” Soldatov said. “We don’t see it yet, but it’s a direction things could move in.”
In the meantime, managing public opinion appears to be a top concern. Russian state media and television continue to put an optimistic slant on the official handling of the outbreak and are keen to highlight the failures by foreign governments in handling the virus. Likewise, a great deal of coverage was devoted to medical equipment that Russia dispatched to Italy—a gesture designed to show Moscow’s confidence in its own approach to the crisis, despite the fact that Italian officials later said 80 percent of the aid was “useless.” Beyond that, the authorities have looked to distort and manipulate information over the coronavirus in the country. Several elderly patients infected with the virus later had their deaths reclassified as due to an underlying condition, such as a blood clot, not from COVID-19, in order to keep the death toll low.
Despite its tools, the Kremlin’s ability to shape public opinion is increasingly tenuous, said Petrov of Chatham House. Trust in state media is low and has been slipping for years, and a recent poll from the Levada Center, an independent Russian pollster, found that 59 percent of Russians don’t fully believe the official figures on coronavirus. This presents a major challenge for the government as the infection rate continues to climb. According to Petrov, the Russian government must find a way to shape public opinion among a distrustful public, while avoiding pushback from a not-always-compliant population over increasingly strict measures, such as those seen in China to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
“In a way, it’s the worst qualities of the Western and Chinese models,” Petrov said. “It’s a bad mix to have to work with.”


foreignpolicy--2020-03-30--It’s Up to Israel to Stop a Coronavirus Catastrophe Among Palestinians

It ’ s Up to Israel to Stop a Coronavirus Catastrophe Among Palestinians The total number of reported coronavirus cases in the occupied Palestinian territories has , thankfully , been relatively low up to now , with 108 cases as of March 29 .
One person has died , a woman in her 60s whose son is suspected to have contracted the coronavirus while working in Israel .
But how is it that a state under military occupation appears to be managing the virus better than developed countries like Italy and the United States ?
The answer is quick action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After the first cases of COVID-19 , the disease caused by the coronavirus , were diagnosed on March 5 in Bethlehem , apparently transmitted to hotel staff by a group of Greek tourists , Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas acted swiftly to declare a state of emergency .
The PA worked with Israel to prevent further spread by shutting off the Bethlehem governorate from the rest of the West Bank and Israel .
PA security forces imposed restrictions over the area , established quarantine facilities in various locations around the West Bank , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all schools , shuttered establishments of public accommodation in urban centers like Ramallah within days , and restricted foreign visitors from entering PA-controlled areas .
On March 22 , the PA then ordered all 5 million Palestinians in the occupied territories to shelter in place .
But while the PA ’ s rapid response has bought it time , it is not a solution .
The coronavirus doesn ’ t care about borders , geopolitics , or any other man-made obstacles to cooperation.The coronavirus doesn ’ t care about borders , geopolitics , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The PA projects that in a worst-case scenario , 12,500 Palestinians will be infected with the virus in the coming weeks .
To deal with this surge , it says it will need 40,000 test kits and 2,800 ventilators in the West Bank alone .
Unless Israel acts now to relieve restrictions on the movement of goods and people to the occupied territories , many Palestinians , Israelis , and others in the region and the world will suffer .
Israeli authorities should start by releasing tax revenue belonging to the PA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would allow the PA to make needed procurements , without which the situation will spiral out of control , with implications for the entire region .
The international donor community must also help to prevent catastrophe by providing expertise and assistance to the West Bank and Gaza so that Palestinians may meet the challenge posed by the pandemic .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
While all countries now are facing shortages of supplies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those infected with the virus , the challenges facing the Palestinian territories are exacerbated by more than half a century of Israeli military occupation and its hampering of economic development , which has devastated Palestinian capacities to contain the virus and treat the infected .
Israel , as the occupying power in the West Bank and Gaza , holds the overarching responsibility to ensure that Palestinians get the health care they need .
However , it has been withholding over $ 11 million per month in Palestinian tax revenues over the issue of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This is one reason why the Palestinian health care system , of which 88 to 90 percent is funded by PA taxes and international donors , is now cash-strapped .
When added to other Israeli charges , such as between 3 and 5 percent levied on Palestinian imports , Palestinians have lost more than $ 47.7 billion since 2000 , according to the United Nations .
Under normal circumstances , these losses are destructive to Palestinian economic development .
During a pandemic , they risk lives and undermine Palestinian health care delivery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has had to compensate these losses by cutting the salaries of public sector employees , including health care workers .
That is why , even before the virus outbreak , the donor-dependent Palestinian health care system was experiencing shortages of equipment , medicines , and essential supplies .
The “ lack of sovereignty and effective control over natural resources or other potential sources of State revenue hamper ” the PA ’ s ability to adequately finance public health care and fulfill its duties , according to the World Health Organization ( WHO ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus is also a challenge in the occupied territories .
Palestinian health care is short on nursing staff and testing kits for those suspected of having contracted the virus .
As of March 26 , Palestinian authorities had conducted only 4,890 tests .
In contrast , Israel had already conducted 10,864 by March 18 .
Though Palestinian labs are able to process swabs with results in a matter of hours , testing is not happening as it should because of the lack of swabs .
Again , many countries are facing similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its chief intelligence agency alone has obtained 100,000 kits , Palestinians must depend on others—Israel , WHO , as well as Egyptian and Jordanian authorities—to get essential supplies into the occupied territories because they lack capacity and have no control over their borders .
Palestinians Brace for an Outbreak in One of the World ’ s Most Densely Populated Territories The first coronavirus cases in the Gaza Strip portend a calamity .
In the fight against the pandemic , some familiar tactics are deployed .
East Jerusalem ’ s approximately 340,000 Palestinians face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Though they have access to Israeli health insurance , tens of thousands of them have become physically separated from their hospitals and clinics by the separation wall .
Now that Israel has instituted total closure over the West Bank and may be closing key checkpoints , Jerusalem ’ s Palestinians may be cut off indefinitely from their health care facilities on the Israeli-controlled side of the wall and be forced to seek care in the PA-controlled areas .
Even before the West Bank closure , a Palestinian father in Jerusalem told me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who had been in contact with a child who ’ d recently traveled to Europe , had been refused testing because he didn ’ t meet Israeli Health Ministry testing criteria .
The PA Health Ministry , however , with far fewer testing kits on hand , accepted the child for testing at a Ramallah lab .
The lack of common standards between the PA and Israel , and the access restrictions in Jerusalem , does not bode well for long-term coordination between Israel and the PA to combat the virus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Palestinians face .
According to Israeli epidemiological modeling , at a low contagion rate , 130 Israelis per day will need hospitalization during the course of the coronavirus outbreak .
At a high contagion rate , that number rises to 1,450 .
Even adjusting for a population about half as large as Israel ’ s , the West Bank , Gaza , and East Jerusalem together would see their 6,440 hospital beds and 200 ventilator-equipped intensive care units quickly overwhelmed at such contagion rates .
Amid the instability , the Palestinian health care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Palestinian health care system , along with the Palestinian Authority , could collapse .
Palestinians living under occupation have neither military engineers to call on to build field hospitals nor the ability to staff and equip such hospitals could they be built .
Time is of the essence now .
In Israel , the peak of the virus is projected to occur in 130 to 440 days .
As Israel ’ s Unit for the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories noted , it is in Israel ’ s interest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the occupied territories so as to prevent the virus ’ s spread in Israel .
More than being in Israel ’ s interest , however , it is its obligation under international law .
Israel ’ s responsibilities mean that it must take swift action : First , Israel must end restrictions on the movement of people and supplies , particularly in East Jerusalem and Gaza , which is still under a 13-year-old Israeli blockade , so that Palestinian patients and supplies may be able to get to hospitals and clinics without delay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected must be given treatment at Israeli hospitals and not dropped off sick at checkpoints .
Second , Israel must ensure that Palestinian health care facilities are properly equipped with testing kits and ventilators .
The 1,500 kits Israel has given the PA are token at best .
Third , Israel must release all Palestinian revenues it has been withholding to enable Palestinian medical procurement from China and South Korea and allow entry of these imports through Israeli ports without delay .
Though Israel ’ s finance minister has freed part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of $ 181 million ) , Palestinians will need all the remaining funds owed to them , and more , to confront the virus and keep the economy afloat .
Fourth , Israel must prepare a plan with the responsible Palestinian authorities in the West Bank and Gaza , and with WHO , on how to deal with the surge in Palestinian patients needing hospital care when the PA health care system is overwhelmed .
Fifth , Israel and the PA must establish common criteria for COVID-19 testing and ensure Palestinians have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sixth , Israel must enact measures to prevent settler gatherings in the West Bank , like those during the celebration of Purim in Hebron , which increase the risk of contagion among both Palestinians and settlers .
Seventh , Israel must release Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli detention centers , many of whom are being held without charge and who are currently being denied legal representation , health care , and sanitation material to prevent spread of the disease .
The coronavirus has shown little regard for borders , but access to health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of them .
Without swift action , both Israelis and Palestinians will face the consequences .

The total number of reported coronavirus cases in the occupied Palestinian territories has, thankfully, been relatively low up to now, with 108 cases as of March 29. One person has died , a woman in her 60s whose son is suspected to have contracted the coronavirus while working in Israel. But how is it that a state under military occupation appears to be managing the virus better than developed countries like Italy and the United States?
The total number of reported coronavirus cases in the occupied Palestinian territories has, thankfully, been relatively low up to now, with 108 cases as of March 29. One person has died, a woman in her 60s whose son is suspected to have contracted the coronavirus while working in Israel. But how is it that a state under military occupation appears to be managing the virus better than developed countries like Italy and the United States?
The answer is quick action by the Palestinian Authority (PA). After the first cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, were diagnosed on March 5 in Bethlehem, apparently transmitted to hotel staff by a group of Greek tourists, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas acted swiftly to declare a state of emergency. The PA worked with Israel to prevent further spread by shutting off the Bethlehem governorate from the rest of the West Bank and Israel. PA security forces imposed restrictions over the area, established quarantine facilities in various locations around the West Bank, stopped nonessential travel between governorates, closed all schools, shuttered establishments of public accommodation in urban centers like Ramallah within days, and restricted foreign visitors from entering PA-controlled areas. On March 22, the PA then ordered all 5 million Palestinians in the occupied territories to shelter in place.
But while the PA’s rapid response has bought it time, it is not a solution. The coronavirus doesn’t care about borders, geopolitics, or any other man-made obstacles to cooperation.The coronavirus doesn’t care about borders, geopolitics, or any other man-made obstacles to cooperation. The PA projects that in a worst-case scenario, 12,500 Palestinians will be infected with the virus in the coming weeks. To deal with this surge, it says it will need 40,000 test kits and 2,800 ventilators in the West Bank alone. Unless Israel acts now to relieve restrictions on the movement of goods and people to the occupied territories, many Palestinians, Israelis, and others in the region and the world will suffer.
Israeli authorities should start by releasing tax revenue belonging to the PA that they have been withholding. This would allow the PA to make needed procurements, without which the situation will spiral out of control, with implications for the entire region. The international donor community must also help to prevent catastrophe by providing expertise and assistance to the West Bank and Gaza so that Palestinians may meet the challenge posed by the pandemic.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
While all countries now are facing shortages of supplies, staff, and space to treat those infected with the virus, the challenges facing the Palestinian territories are exacerbated by more than half a century of Israeli military occupation and its hampering of economic development, which has devastated Palestinian capacities to contain the virus and treat the infected. Israel, as the occupying power in the West Bank and Gaza, holds the overarching responsibility to ensure that Palestinians get the health care they need. However, it has been withholding over $11 million per month in Palestinian tax revenues over the issue of payments to the families of Palestinian fighters. This is one reason why the Palestinian health care system, of which 88 to 90 percent is funded by PA taxes and international donors, is now cash-strapped. When added to other Israeli charges, such as between 3 and 5 percent levied on Palestinian imports, Palestinians have lost more than $47.7 billion since 2000, according to the United Nations. Under normal circumstances, these losses are destructive to Palestinian economic development. During a pandemic, they risk lives and undermine Palestinian health care delivery. In fact, the PA treasury has had to compensate these losses by cutting the salaries of public sector employees, including health care workers. That is why, even before the virus outbreak, the donor-dependent Palestinian health care system was experiencing shortages of equipment, medicines, and essential supplies. The “lack of sovereignty and effective control over natural resources or other potential sources of State revenue hamper” the PA’s ability to adequately finance public health care and fulfill its duties, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) in a 2018 report.
Testing for the virus is also a challenge in the occupied territories. Palestinian health care is short on nursing staff and testing kits for those suspected of having contracted the virus. As of March 26, Palestinian authorities had conducted only 4,890 tests. In contrast, Israel had already conducted 10,864 by March 18. Though Palestinian labs are able to process swabs with results in a matter of hours, testing is not happening as it should because of the lack of swabs. Again, many countries are facing similar problems, but unlike Israel, where its chief intelligence agency alone has obtained 100,000 kits, Palestinians must depend on others—Israel, WHO, as well as Egyptian and Jordanian authorities—to get essential supplies into the occupied territories because they lack capacity and have no control over their borders.
Read More A Palestinian couple wed amid the coronavirus epidemic A Palestinian couple wed amid the coronavirus epidemic Palestinians Brace for an Outbreak in One of the World’s Most Densely Populated Territories The first coronavirus cases in the Gaza Strip portend a calamity. Dispatch | Joshua Mitnick A man wearing a face mask prays during a mass prayer at the Western Wall A man wearing a face mask prays during a mass prayer at the Western Wall Israel’s War Footing Against the Coronavirus In the fight against the pandemic, some familiar tactics are deployed. Dispatch | Joshua Mitnick People demonstrate at the Brandenburg Gate during the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Berlin. People demonstrate at the Brandenburg Gate during the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Berlin. Adam Tooze: Economic Pressure Is Unlikely to Save Israel From Authoritarianism Investors tend to stay, even after countries become less democratic. Insider | Cameron Abadi
East Jerusalem’s approximately 340,000 Palestinians face particular obstacles to obtaining testing and treatment. Though they have access to Israeli health insurance, tens of thousands of them have become physically separated from their hospitals and clinics by the separation wall. Now that Israel has instituted total closure over the West Bank and may be closing key checkpoints, Jerusalem’s Palestinians may be cut off indefinitely from their health care facilities on the Israeli-controlled side of the wall and be forced to seek care in the PA-controlled areas. Even before the West Bank closure, a Palestinian father in Jerusalem told me that his coughing and feverish 8-year-old son, who had been in contact with a child who’d recently traveled to Europe, had been refused testing because he didn’t meet Israeli Health Ministry testing criteria. The PA Health Ministry, however, with far fewer testing kits on hand, accepted the child for testing at a Ramallah lab. The lack of common standards between the PA and Israel, and the access restrictions in Jerusalem, does not bode well for long-term coordination between Israel and the PA to combat the virus.
Limited health care infrastructure is another problem Palestinians face. According to Israeli epidemiological modeling, at a low contagion rate, 130 Israelis per day will need hospitalization during the course of the coronavirus outbreak. At a high contagion rate, that number rises to 1,450. Even adjusting for a population about half as large as Israel’s, the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem together would see their 6,440 hospital beds and 200 ventilator-equipped intensive care units quickly overwhelmed at such contagion rates. Amid the instability, the Palestinian health care system—along with the PA—could collapse.Amid the instability, the Palestinian health care system, along with the Palestinian Authority, could collapse. Palestinians living under occupation have neither military engineers to call on to build field hospitals nor the ability to staff and equip such hospitals could they be built.
Time is of the essence now. In Israel, the peak of the virus is projected to occur in 130 to 440 days. As Israel’s Unit for the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories noted, it is in Israel’s interest to slow the rate of transmission in the occupied territories so as to prevent the virus’s spread in Israel. More than being in Israel’s interest, however, it is its obligation under international law.
Israel’s responsibilities mean that it must take swift action:
First, Israel must end restrictions on the movement of people and supplies, particularly in East Jerusalem and Gaza, which is still under a 13-year-old Israeli blockade, so that Palestinian patients and supplies may be able to get to hospitals and clinics without delay. Palestinian workers inside Israel who become infected must be given treatment at Israeli hospitals and not dropped off sick at checkpoints.
Second, Israel must ensure that Palestinian health care facilities are properly equipped with testing kits and ventilators. The 1,500 kits Israel has given the PA are token at best.
Third, Israel must release all Palestinian revenues it has been withholding to enable Palestinian medical procurement from China and South Korea and allow entry of these imports through Israeli ports without delay. Though Israel’s finance minister has freed part of the withheld funds (approximately $33 million out of $181 million), Palestinians will need all the remaining funds owed to them, and more, to confront the virus and keep the economy afloat.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
Fourth, Israel must prepare a plan with the responsible Palestinian authorities in the West Bank and Gaza, and with WHO, on how to deal with the surge in Palestinian patients needing hospital care when the PA health care system is overwhelmed.
Fifth, Israel and the PA must establish common criteria for COVID-19 testing and ensure Palestinians have all the test kits they need.
Sixth, Israel must enact measures to prevent settler gatherings in the West Bank, like those during the celebration of Purim in Hebron, which increase the risk of contagion among both Palestinians and settlers.
Seventh, Israel must release Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli detention centers, many of whom are being held without charge and who are currently being denied legal representation, health care, and sanitation material to prevent spread of the disease.
The coronavirus has shown little regard for borders, but access to health care for Palestinians is severely constrained because of them. Without swift action, both Israelis and Palestinians will face the consequences.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-30--Authoritarianism in the Time of the Coronavirus

Authoritarianism in the Time of the Coronavirus Over a few short weeks , a third of the world has been placed under lockdown .
Soldiers maneuver military vehicles through city centers , police cars broadcast calls for citizens to disperse from public spaces , public announcements are made via drones—and all of it has become normal .
The soaring death rate and rapid spread of the disease—overwhelming some of the best public health systems in the world—suggest that this dramatic response is the correct approach .
While it may succeed in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus , however , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that when the virus recedes , many countries will be far less democratic than they were before March 2020 .
In times of crisis , checks and balances are often ignored in the name of executive power .
The danger is that the temporary can become permanent .
Initially , populist and autocratic leaders were ill-prepared for the pandemic .
A disdain for science and expertise , combined with nepotism and neglect of state institutions , including health care , made governments such as those of U.S. President Donald Trump , Mexican President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Jair Bolsonaro more vulnerable .
Before the health crisis became impossible to deny , government propaganda outlets or supportive media in these countries systematically downplayed the dangers posed by the coronavirus .
In the United States , for example , Fox News blamed Democrats for playing up the threat .
In Serbia and Turkey , pro-regime media gave voice to pundits and so-called experts who claimed that their populations were genetically protected from infection .
In the long term , the pandemic might undermine autocratic leaders—as the usual tactic of blaming scapegoats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value of expertise and functioning institutions .
But if strongmen are threatened with a loss of legitimacy , they ’ re likely to double down on their authoritarian practices and take advantage of the state of emergency to consolidate power .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
Long before the virus hit , the world was already experiencing a decline of democracy .
Since 2006 , more countries have seen their democracies degrade than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to Freedom House , 64 countries became less democratic , and only 37 became more so .
Now , as countries around the world institute extraordinary measures to fight the pandemic , both dictatorships and democracies are curtailing civil liberties on a massive scale .
A number of European leaders , including Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic , have praised Beijing ’ s rapid and highly repressive response to the virus ( after the country corrected its initial bungling approach ) .
The decline in new infections in China itself and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Austria , Greece , Italy , and Spain have improved China ’ s reputation in Europe .
Freedom of assembly , a fundamental right , has been severely restricted almost everywhere .
But free movement is far from the only right being infringed on .
In a number of countries , elections are beginning to be delayed .
Voting for the Democratic primary in the United States has been postponed in at least 12 states and territories .
In Serbia and North Macedonia , national elections scheduled for April have been postponed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for May have also been postponed .
In the current environment , holding elections is certainly difficult and even dangerous .
It appears that the first round of French municipal elections held on March 15 might have accelerated the spread of the coronavirus .
At the same time , postponing elections for months might deprive governments of their legitimacy and allow autocrats to use the delay to strengthen their power and hold elections when it suits them .
Where elections are still slated to move forward , they pose other dangers to democracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential elections planned for May to be postponed , the country ’ s government insists they will go ahead .
Such elections would unfairly favor incumbent President Andrzej Duda , an ally of the ruling Law and Justice party ; emergencies often help sitting leaders and make it difficult for the opposition to run a campaign .
Altogether , postponing elections is the better choice , but such decisions should follow a clear cross-party agreement and timetable .
“ We are at war , ” French President Emmanuel Macron recently declared , echoing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Such dramatic rhetoric can help rally a strong effort to fight the pandemic and highlight the sacrifices citizens have to make .
Such appeals can be dangerous , however .
The virus is not an army , and evoking war can transform a health crisis into a security one , justifying repressive measures .
Measures like closing businesses , enforcing social distancing , and keeping people off the street , including curfews and bans on gatherings , are needed to control the rapid spread of the coronavirus .
But there is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a new wave of authoritarianism .
In Azerbaijan , President Ilham Aliyev used the Nowruz spring holiday address to describe the opposition as a dangerous fifth column and threatened that “ during the existence of the disease , the rules of completely new relationships will apply .
… It is possible that a state of emergency may be declared at some point .
In this case , the isolation of representatives of the fifth column will become a historical necessity.
” Numerous countries have already passed emergency laws or declared states of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power .
In Hungary , the government of Viktor Orban on March 30 passed a law “ on protecting against the coronavirus ” that allows the government to rule by decree and suspend existing laws .
Furthermore , parliamentary oversight is suspended for the duration of the crisis , with only the prime minister permitted to determine when it will be lifted .
The new law introduces draconian fines for spreading fake news and breaking quarantine and curfews , with penalties of up to five years ’ imprisonment .
The law triggered an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Council of Europe , the Continent ’ s key human rights watchdog , to the Hungarian government , stating that “ [ a ] n indefinite and uncontrolled state of emergency can not guarantee that the basic principles of democracy will be observed and that the emergency measures restricting fundamental human rights are strictly proportionate to the threat which they are supposed to counter.
” In Israel , Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has used the emergency to postpone his corruption trial , block parliament from sitting , and grant extraordinary domestic surveillance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The extraordinary powers given through emergency laws and other emergency measures can lead to abuse among democratic leaders as well .
Liberal democracies have also taken unprecedent measures to monitor citizens , such as tracking their movement through cell-phone data , including in Italy , Germany , and Austria .
In Montenegro , the government even published the names and addresses of citizens who are supposed to be in quarantine to ensure compliance .
Confronting the coronavirus crisis will take extreme measures , but any infringement on civil liberties must be temporary and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have a clearly defined time frame to avoid leading into a permanent state of emergency .
Furthermore , legislative bodies need to remain active .
The Austrian parliament , for example , passed a number of laws in an accelerated procedure , and the European Parliament supported special EU funds to help countries affected by the pandemic—with most parliament members participating and voting remotely .
Fake news , meanwhile , is best confronted through government transparency—rather than with penalties .
In fact , penalties for spreading false news are particularly popular in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Turkey , where pro-government media have been disseminating misleading and false information about the health risk of the disease .
Part of the success of countries like Taiwan and Singapore in confronting the coronavirus is due to their clear and open communication about the pandemic .
The dangers are clear .
The pandemic may well lead to a serious decline in democracy around the world .
It is crucial that liberal democracies show self-restraint and vigilance .
Governments such as Canada and South Korea have thus far demonstrated how to respond effectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical , vibrant debate remains alive .
Others must follow suit .

Over a few short weeks, a third of the world has been placed under lockdown. Soldiers maneuver military vehicles through city centers, police cars broadcast calls for citizens to disperse from public spaces, public announcements are made via drones—and all of it has become normal. The soaring death rate and rapid spread of the disease—overwhelming some of the best public health systems in the world—suggest that this dramatic response is the correct approach. While it may succeed in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus, however, the world now faces another danger: that when the virus recedes, many countries will be far less democratic than they were before March 2020. In times of crisis, checks and balances are often ignored in the name of executive power. The danger is that the temporary can become permanent.
Over a few short weeks, a third of the world has been placed under lockdown. Soldiers maneuver military vehicles through city centers, police cars broadcast calls for citizens to disperse from public spaces, public announcements are made via drones—and all of it has become normal. The soaring death rate and rapid spread of the disease—overwhelming some of the best public health systems in the world—suggest that this dramatic response is the correct approach. While it may succeed in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus, however, the world now faces another danger: that when the virus recedes, many countries will be far less democratic than they were before March 2020. In times of crisis, checks and balances are often ignored in the name of executive power. The danger is that the temporary can become permanent.
Initially, populist and autocratic leaders were ill-prepared for the pandemic. A disdain for science and expertise, combined with nepotism and neglect of state institutions, including health care, made governments such as those of U.S. President Donald Trump, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro more vulnerable.
Before the health crisis became impossible to deny, government propaganda outlets or supportive media in these countries systematically downplayed the dangers posed by the coronavirus. In the United States, for example, Fox News blamed Democrats for playing up the threat. In Serbia and Turkey, pro-regime media gave voice to pundits and so-called experts who claimed that their populations were genetically protected from infection. In the long term, the pandemic might undermine autocratic leaders—as the usual tactic of blaming scapegoats fails and citizens come to appreciate the value of expertise and functioning institutions. But if strongmen are threatened with a loss of legitimacy, they’re likely to double down on their authoritarian practices and take advantage of the state of emergency to consolidate power.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Long before the virus hit, the world was already experiencing a decline of democracy. Since 2006, more countries have seen their democracies degrade than those that have improved. Last year, according to Freedom House, 64 countries became less democratic, and only 37 became more so.
Now, as countries around the world institute extraordinary measures to fight the pandemic, both dictatorships and democracies are curtailing civil liberties on a massive scale.
A number of European leaders, including Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, have praised Beijing’s rapid and highly repressive response to the virus (after the country corrected its initial bungling approach). The decline in new infections in China itself and the delivery of Chinese aid to countries such as Austria, Greece, Italy, and Spain have improved China’s reputation in Europe.
Freedom of assembly, a fundamental right, has been severely restricted almost everywhere. But free movement is far from the only right being infringed on. In a number of countries, elections are beginning to be delayed. Voting for the Democratic primary in the United States has been postponed in at least 12 states and territories. In Serbia and North Macedonia, national elections scheduled for April have been postponed. In Britain, local elections scheduled for May have also been postponed. In the current environment, holding elections is certainly difficult and even dangerous. It appears that the first round of French municipal elections held on March 15 might have accelerated the spread of the coronavirus. At the same time, postponing elections for months might deprive governments of their legitimacy and allow autocrats to use the delay to strengthen their power and hold elections when it suits them. Where elections are still slated to move forward, they pose other dangers to democracy. Though the majority of Poles want presidential elections planned for May to be postponed, the country’s government insists they will go ahead. Such elections would unfairly favor incumbent President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the ruling Law and Justice party; emergencies often help sitting leaders and make it difficult for the opposition to run a campaign. Altogether, postponing elections is the better choice, but such decisions should follow a clear cross-party agreement and timetable.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
“We are at war,” French President Emmanuel Macron recently declared, echoing language other leaders have used as well. Such dramatic rhetoric can help rally a strong effort to fight the pandemic and highlight the sacrifices citizens have to make. Such appeals can be dangerous, however. The virus is not an army, and evoking war can transform a health crisis into a security one, justifying repressive measures.
Measures like closing businesses, enforcing social distancing, and keeping people off the street, including curfews and bans on gatherings, are needed to control the rapid spread of the coronavirus. But there is a serious risk that these efforts are leading to a new wave of authoritarianism. In Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev used the Nowruz spring holiday address to describe the opposition as a dangerous fifth column and threatened that “during the existence of the disease, the rules of completely new relationships will apply. … It is possible that a state of emergency may be declared at some point. In this case, the isolation of representatives of the fifth column will become a historical necessity.”
Numerous countries have already passed emergency laws or declared states of emergency—a tactic autocrats can use to consolidate power. In Hungary, the government of Viktor Orban on March 30 passed a law “on protecting against the coronavirus” that allows the government to rule by decree and suspend existing laws. Furthermore, parliamentary oversight is suspended for the duration of the crisis, with only the prime minister permitted to determine when it will be lifted. The new law introduces draconian fines for spreading fake news and breaking quarantine and curfews, with penalties of up to five years’ imprisonment. The law triggered an unusually clear letter by the secretary-general of the Council of Europe, the Continent’s key human rights watchdog, to the Hungarian government, stating that “[a]n indefinite and uncontrolled state of emergency cannot guarantee that the basic principles of democracy will be observed and that the emergency measures restricting fundamental human rights are strictly proportionate to the threat which they are supposed to counter.” In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has used the emergency to postpone his corruption trial, block parliament from sitting, and grant extraordinary domestic surveillance powers to the internal intelligence agency.
The extraordinary powers given through emergency laws and other emergency measures can lead to abuse among democratic leaders as well. Liberal democracies have also taken unprecedent measures to monitor citizens, such as tracking their movement through cell-phone data, including in Italy, Germany, and Austria. In Montenegro, the government even published the names and addresses of citizens who are supposed to be in quarantine to ensure compliance.
Confronting the coronavirus crisis will take extreme measures, but any infringement on civil liberties must be temporary and proportional. Crucially, emergency measures need to have a clearly defined time frame to avoid leading into a permanent state of emergency.
Furthermore, legislative bodies need to remain active. The Austrian parliament, for example, passed a number of laws in an accelerated procedure, and the European Parliament supported special EU funds to help countries affected by the pandemic—with most parliament members participating and voting remotely.
Fake news, meanwhile, is best confronted through government transparency—rather than with penalties. In fact, penalties for spreading false news are particularly popular in countries such as Hungary, Serbia, and Turkey, where pro-government media have been disseminating misleading and false information about the health risk of the disease. Part of the success of countries like Taiwan and Singapore in confronting the coronavirus is due to their clear and open communication about the pandemic.
The dangers are clear. The pandemic may well lead to a serious decline in democracy around the world. It is crucial that liberal democracies show self-restraint and vigilance. Governments such as Canada and South Korea have thus far demonstrated how to respond effectively to the pandemic while ensuring that a critical, vibrant debate remains alive. Others must follow suit.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-30--How an Iranian Airline Tied to Terrorism Likely Spread the Virus (and Lied About It)

How an Iranian Airline Tied to Terrorism Likely Spread the Virus ( and Lied About It ) There are many reasons why Iran has become the Middle East ’ s flaming epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic .
They include the government trying to hide the outbreak ; insufficient testing capacity ; refusal to cordon off cities and Shiite shrines ; superstition , politicization , and propaganda blaming Iran ’ s usual enemies ; and the lack of seriousness in dealing with the crisis .
All these factors undoubtedly play a role , but there is another , far less public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and worsening its spread among the population : a private Iranian airline tied to the regime ’ s ideological army and sanctioned by the United States , which continued uninterrupted flights to and from China , including Wuhan , many weeks after the epidemic had already broken out .
Bahram Parsaei , a member of Iran ’ s parliament , recently singled out Mahan Air and Iran ’ s Civil Aviation Organization as the prime suspects behind the country ’ s devastating outbreak .
What has made the suspicions worse are contradictory statements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ executives .
On Jan. 31 , the Iranian government announced the suspension of all flights to and from China .
But arrival and departure information furnished by Tehran ’ s Imam Khomeini Airport , as well as by Chinese airports , showed that flights by Mahan Air between both countries continued for another full week—including one direct evacuation flight from Wuhan , ground zero for the virus .
Other data showed flights continuing into March .
The airline , while privately owned , has links to Iran ’ s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , an intelligence and special operations unit that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and other governments .
Mahan Air has been sanctioned by Washington for helping the IRGC ferry arms and personnel in support of Bashar al-Assad ’ s government in Syria ’ s brutal civil war .
In a tweet on Feb. 2 , China ’ s ambassador to Iran , Chang Hua , noted that Mahan Air CEO Hamid Arabnejad said he wished to continue cooperating with China .
Two days later , the semiofficial Iranian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flights and not for the first time .
In a press release , Mahan Air claimed it ended all emergency repatriation flights from Wuhan and elsewhere by Feb. 5 .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
Yet even after this date , Mahan Air continued to ply the routes between Tehran and four major Chinese cities—Beijing , Shanghai , Guangzhou , and Shenzhen—at least 55 times by Feb. 23 , according to a tally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Flightradar24 data .
Even on March 4 , two weeks after the government announced Iran ’ s first two official deaths from COVID-19 , the disease caused by the virus , Mahan Air was still flying to Beijing and Shanghai and had just resumed direct flights to Guangzhou and Shenzhen .
Bahram Parsaei , a member of Iran ’ s parliament , singled out Mahan Air as a prime suspect behind the country ’ s devastating outbreak .
Mahan Air continued to misinform about its flights .
Around Feb. 20 , the airline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only cargo flights providing humanitarian assistance to China , while all passenger flights had been grounded .
But the flight tracker data shows passenger flights , not cargo .
The flight data seems more trustworthy : Given Iran ’ s severe shortages of face masks , sanitizer , medicine , and medical equipment—partly a result of U.S. sanctions—it strains the imagination to believe that the country was scrambling dozens of planeloads of health assistance to China at a time when its own coronavirus outbreak was rapidly worsening .
Iranian authorities had been quashing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hassan Rouhani claims Feb. 19 as the date the government first realized the virus had arrived in Iran , after the first two deaths reported in Qom that day .
But signs had been abundantly in evidence long before .
Furthermore , a government document dated Feb. 19 seems to acknowledge cases in Qom as of Jan. 31 .
Yet precautionary measures were delayed until after the Feb. 21 parliamentary elections .
As the situation worsened in Iran , Mahan Air continued to fly to and from China , including eight planeloads of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mohammad Eslami , Mahan Air also flew three flights to repatriate Iranians , including one from Wuhan to bring back Iranian students .
Iran Knows Who to Blame for the Virus : America and Israel The regime ’ s ideological army is spinning conspiracy theories even as it helps spread the virus among Iran ’ s long-suffering people .
Iran ’ s political and economic isolation hasn ’ t stopped COVID-19—but sanctions are threatening to turn an outbreak into a catastrophe .
Given shortages of test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is highly unlikely that aviation and health authorities were able to ensure proper disinfection and diagnosis on arrival .
Even today , the World Health Organization suspects Iran has diagnosed only a fraction of the true number of cases .
Mahan Air is also suspected to have flown Chinese nationals on those supposed cargo flights .
Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi recently said epidemiological studies showed that COVID-19 ’ s origins in Qom—Iran ’ s equivalent of Wuhan—were “ clearly and specifically ” linked to Chinese workers and university students .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Qom ’ s Al-Mustafa International University , a center of Shiite indoctrination with some 40,000 foreign students . )
The suspected link between Mahan Air flights and the start of the outbreak in Qom has gained traction among some Iranians ; some on social media even claimed that Iranians had , at Qom airport , attacked a Mahan Air aircraft with stones .
The Mahan Air affair is symptomatic of Iran ’ s outsized need to please China , which has only grown since the start of the crisis .
The Mahan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s outsized dependency on—and need to please—China , which has only grown since the start of the crisis .
The pandemic has isolated Iran in a way that military , diplomatic , and economic pressure has not been able to .
Even though bilateral trade dropped by over a third between 2018 and 2019 , and Iran ’ s oil exports to China dwindled by over 82 percent between April and November 2019 , China remains Iran ’ s single most important trade partner and customer for its oil and gas .
According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Malekzadeh , among the reasons for ongoing flights to China were bilateral economic relations .
Beijing , along with Russia , also remains Iran ’ s most important patron and protector , especially on the United Nations Security Council .
Rouhani has called for Iranians to trust his government ’ s efforts to contain the pandemic .
Yet trust between the population and its leaders has become dangerously thin , giving the government all the more reason to release Mahan Air ’ s flight manifest .
Otherwise , continued speculation in Iran over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over into open antagonism toward everything Chinese , including thousands of workers , traders , and students in Iran .
Such public resentment would put Tehran in an even more difficult position with Beijing .
It could also undermine the regime ’ s continued hold on power .
Already , recent months have seen unprecedentedly violent anti-regime protests and the lowest parliamentary electoral turnout in post-revolutionary Iran ’ s history .
Meanwhile , Iran ’ s economy is tanking under unrelenting U.S. sanctions , the lowest oil prices since 2002 , and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreads .
For the first time , the Central Bank of Iran has requested $ 5 billion in emergency assistance from the International Monetary Fund .
On top of everything , the disease is killing a growing number of political , security , and religious figures in a country run by men in their 60s and far beyond .
Officials even had to quash rumors that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , 80 , tested positive .
As one of the worst-hit epicenters of the pandemic , Iran is in uncharted waters .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have made the crisis worse for the Iranian population , and there continues to be little transparency—including about the role played by Mahan Air .
As Iranians continue to fall ill and die from the new disease , the regime ’ s legitimacy among its own people may be at stake like never before .

There are many reasons why Iran has become the Middle East’s flaming epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. They include the government trying to hide the outbreak; insufficient testing capacity; refusal to cordon off cities and Shiite shrines ; superstition , politicization , and propaganda blaming Iran’s usual enemies; and the lack of seriousness in dealing with the crisis.
There are many reasons why Iran has become the Middle East’s flaming epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. They include the government trying to hide the outbreak; insufficient testing capacity; refusal to cordon off cities and Shiite shrines; superstition, politicization, and propaganda blaming Iran’s usual enemies; and the lack of seriousness in dealing with the crisis.
All these factors undoubtedly play a role, but there is another, far less public suspect for bringing the disease to Iran and worsening its spread among the population: a private Iranian airline tied to the regime’s ideological army and sanctioned by the United States, which continued uninterrupted flights to and from China, including Wuhan, many weeks after the epidemic had already broken out. Bahram Parsaei, a member of Iran’s parliament, recently singled out Mahan Air and Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization as the prime suspects behind the country’s devastating outbreak.
What has made the suspicions worse are contradictory statements and misinformation coming from officials and airline executives. On Jan. 31, the Iranian government announced the suspension of all flights to and from China. But arrival and departure information furnished by Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport, as well as by Chinese airports, showed that flights by Mahan Air between both countries continued for another full week—including one direct evacuation flight from Wuhan, ground zero for the virus. Other data showed flights continuing into March.
The airline, while privately owned, has links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force, an intelligence and special operations unit that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and other governments. Mahan Air has been sanctioned by Washington for helping the IRGC ferry arms and personnel in support of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria’s brutal civil war. In a tweet on Feb. 2, China’s ambassador to Iran, Chang Hua, noted that Mahan Air CEO Hamid Arabnejad said he wished to continue cooperating with China. Two days later, the semiofficial Iranian Students’ News Agency criticized these ongoing flights and not for the first time. In a press release, Mahan Air claimed it ended all emergency repatriation flights from Wuhan and elsewhere by Feb. 5.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Yet even after this date, Mahan Air continued to ply the routes between Tehran and four major Chinese cities—Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen—at least 55 times by Feb. 23, according to a tally by the U.S.-sponsored Radio Farda based on Flightradar24 data. Even on March 4, two weeks after the government announced Iran’s first two official deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, Mahan Air was still flying to Beijing and Shanghai and had just resumed direct flights to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Bahram Parsaei, a member of Iran’s parliament, singled out Mahan Air as a prime suspect behind the country’s devastating outbreak.
Mahan Air continued to misinform about its flights. Around Feb. 20, the airline claimed it had in recent days flown only cargo flights providing humanitarian assistance to China, while all passenger flights had been grounded. But the flight tracker data shows passenger flights, not cargo. The flight data seems more trustworthy: Given Iran’s severe shortages of face masks, sanitizer, medicine, and medical equipment—partly a result of U.S. sanctions—it strains the imagination to believe that the country was scrambling dozens of planeloads of health assistance to China at a time when its own coronavirus outbreak was rapidly worsening.
Iranian authorities had been quashing reports of the outbreak. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani claims Feb. 19 as the date the government first realized the virus had arrived in Iran, after the first two deaths reported in Qom that day. But signs had been abundantly in evidence long before. Furthermore, a government document dated Feb. 19 seems to acknowledge cases in Qom as of Jan. 31. Yet precautionary measures were delayed until after the Feb. 21 parliamentary elections.
As the situation worsened in Iran, Mahan Air continued to fly to and from China, including eight planeloads of emergency medical equipment from China. According to Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mohammad Eslami, Mahan Air also flew three flights to repatriate Iranians, including one from Wuhan to bring back Iranian students.
Read More An Iranian woman walks past an anti-American mural on the wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on May 8, 2018. An Iranian woman walks past an anti-American mural on the wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on May 8, 2018. Iran Knows Who to Blame for the Virus: America and Israel The regime’s ideological army is spinning conspiracy theories even as it helps spread the virus among Iran’s long-suffering people. Argument | Kasra Aarabi Iranian Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi wipes the sweat off his face, during a press conference with the Islamic republic's government spokesman Ali Rabiei in Tehran on Feb. 24. He confirmed on Feb. 25 that he has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, amid a major outbreak in Iran. Iranian Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi wipes the sweat off his face, during a press conference with the Islamic republic's government spokesman Ali Rabiei in Tehran on Feb. 24. He confirmed on Feb. 25 that he has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, amid a major outbreak in Iran. As Coronavirus Spreads, Iranian Doctors Fear the Worst Iran’s political and economic isolation hasn’t stopped COVID-19—but sanctions are threatening to turn an outbreak into a catastrophe. Argument | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Abbas Kebriaeezadeh Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets children waving Indian flags as he arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets children waving Indian flags as he arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit. India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia Beijing’s attempts to encircle New Delhi are being systematically reversed. Analysis | Derek Grossman
Given shortages of test kits and other equipment in Iran, it is highly unlikely that aviation and health authorities were able to ensure proper disinfection and diagnosis on arrival. Even today, the World Health Organization suspects Iran has diagnosed only a fraction of the true number of cases.
Mahan Air is also suspected to have flown Chinese nationals on those supposed cargo flights. Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi recently said epidemiological studies showed that COVID-19’s origins in Qom—Iran’s equivalent of Wuhan—were “clearly and specifically” linked to Chinese workers and university students. (He was presumably referring to seminary students at Qom’s Al-Mustafa International University, a center of Shiite indoctrination with some 40,000 foreign students.) The suspected link between Mahan Air flights and the start of the outbreak in Qom has gained traction among some Iranians; some on social media even claimed that Iranians had, at Qom airport, attacked a Mahan Air aircraft with stones.
The Mahan Air affair is symptomatic of Iran’s outsized need to please China, which has only grown since the start of the crisis.
The Mahan Air affair is symptomatic of Iran’s outsized dependency on—and need to please—China, which has only grown since the start of the crisis. The pandemic has isolated Iran in a way that military, diplomatic, and economic pressure has not been able to. Even though bilateral trade dropped by over a third between 2018 and 2019, and Iran’s oil exports to China dwindled by over 82 percent between April and November 2019, China remains Iran’s single most important trade partner and customer for its oil and gas. According to another deputy health minister, Reza Malekzadeh, among the reasons for ongoing flights to China were bilateral economic relations. Beijing, along with Russia, also remains Iran’s most important patron and protector, especially on the United Nations Security Council.
Rouhani has called for Iranians to trust his government’s efforts to contain the pandemic. Yet trust between the population and its leaders has become dangerously thin, giving the government all the more reason to release Mahan Air’s flight manifest. Otherwise, continued speculation in Iran over the pandemic’s origins risks spilling over into open antagonism toward everything Chinese, including thousands of workers, traders, and students in Iran. Such public resentment would put Tehran in an even more difficult position with Beijing. It could also undermine the regime’s continued hold on power. Already, recent months have seen unprecedentedly violent anti-regime protests and the lowest parliamentary electoral turnout in post-revolutionary Iran’s history.
Meanwhile, Iran’s economy is tanking under unrelenting U.S. sanctions, the lowest oil prices since 2002, and a collapse in global trade as the pandemic spreads. For the first time, the Central Bank of Iran has requested $5 billion in emergency assistance from the International Monetary Fund. On top of everything, the disease is killing a growing number of political, security, and religious figures in a country run by men in their 60s and far beyond. Officials even had to quash rumors that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 80, tested positive.
As one of the worst-hit epicenters of the pandemic, Iran is in uncharted waters. Many of the government’s decisions have made the crisis worse for the Iranian population, and there continues to be little transparency—including about the role played by Mahan Air. As Iranians continue to fall ill and die from the new disease, the regime’s legitimacy among its own people may be at stake like never before.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-30--Trump Extends Coronavirus Lockdown Until April 30

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Trump extends lockdown until April 30 , Syria reports its first coronavirus death , and North Korea launches more missiles .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday , please sign up here .
Last week , U.S. President Donald Trump dangled the possibility of reopening the U.S. economy by Easter .
Now he has changed his mind .
At a White House Rose Garden briefing , Trump extended the current guidelines on social distancing until April 30 , keeping the United States in line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the coronavirus pandemic to keep their populations at home .
The United States has the highest number of coronavirus cases worldwide at 143,025 , according to Johns Hopkins University .
How high will the death toll be ?
A senior member of Trump ’ s coronavirus task force , Anthony Fauci , told CNN the outbreak could cause 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the United States alone before qualifying his estimate , “ I just don ’ t think that we really need to make a projection , when it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so easily be wrong and mislead people , ” he said .
In New York , the state worst hit by coronavirus in terms of total numbers infected and total deaths , steps are being taken to extend capacity in an overwhelmed hospital system .
Today , a 1,000-bed temporary hospital opens in Manhattan ’ s Javits Center , a 68-bed overflow field hospital is near completion in Central Park , and a U.S. Navy hospital ship , the USNS Comfort , is due to dock in New York city , having made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How prepared are U.S. hospitals for a surge in cases ?
Compared to other wealthy nations , the United States lags behind on several key measures .
The United States has fewer practicing physicians , fewer hospital-employed physicians , and a lower number of hospitals per capita than most wealthy nations , according to data compiled by the Kaiser Family Foundation .
It also has a lower number of hospital beds per 1,000 people : 2.8 compared to South Korea ’ s 12 .
Perhaps most worrying in a pandemic , Americans are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to its cost : In 2016 , 33 percent of Americans reported they either did not see a doctor when they were sick , skipped a medical test or treatment , or did not fill a prescription because of the cost in the past year .
Former Venezuelan in talks with U.S. Hugo Carvajal , the former head of Venezuelan military intelligence , is reported to be in talks with the United States after his indictment on Thursday along with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro .
Carvajal , who has backed Juan Guaido as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in hiding after a Spanish court approved extraditing him to the United States in November .
Japan prepares stimulus .
After initially saying coronavirus funds would be taken from existing budgets , Japan is now preparing a stimulus package from a supplementary budget that will be put together over the next 10 days .
In a press conference , Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his government would “ lay out a stimulus package of unprecedented size that will exceed the one compiled after the Lehman crisis.
” Syria records first coronavirus death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yesterday as the United Nations and World Health Organization both issued warnings of the risk of a major outbreak in the war-ravaged country .
Writing in Foreign Policy last week , Steven Cook outlined the stakes for Syria and the world if Syria ’ s outbreak takes a turn for the worse .
North Korea continues missile testing .
North Korea ’ s military fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the ocean yesterday , its eighth and ninth missile tests this month .
In a statement , South Korea ’ s Joint Chiefs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inappropriate ” in light of the global coronavirus pandemic .
According to calculations made by Shea Cotton at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies , North Korea has fired more missiles in March than in any previous month .
India ’ s lockdown fallout .
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked “ forgiveness from all my countrymen ” over the country ’ s three-week lockdown .
Photos and videos emerged over the weekend of migrant workers crowding bus stations as they attempted to return home .
Writing in Foreign Policy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown will take on the country ’ s day laborers , who depend on a daily income to survive .
“ How easy it is for the prime minister to say do not step out of your houses , ” one man told her .
“ If I do not go out for a week , my children and my wife will die.
” Poland headed for May election .
Poland ’ s ruling Law and Justice party forced through changes to the country ’ s electoral code over the weekend that could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election that is slated to go ahead as scheduled .
Poland ’ s constitutional court has ruled in the past that any electoral changes must take place six months before any election—the changes made on Saturday include allowing postal voting for the elderly or those in quarantine .
Marcin Horala , a lawmaker with Law and Justice pushed back against critics of the move on Twitter , “ The ban on changing the rules six months before the elections concerns its essential elements , such as the size of constituencies … Technical and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrote .
Missiles over Riyadh .
On Saturday , Saudi Arabia intercepted two ballistic missiles over Riyadh , leaving two civilians “ slightly injured.
” Yemen ’ s Houthis took responsibility for the strike , with a spokesman saying they were targeted at “ sensitive ” sites .
It ’ s the first attempted strike on Riyadh since June 2018 .
The foiled strike appears to upset possibilities for peace after both the Saudi coalition and Houthis welcomed a call by the United Nations for a global cease-fire due to the coronavirus pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thursday , April 2 .
In keeping with the new coronavirus guidelines , the meeting will take place via video conference .
The U.S. Department of Labor releases its jobs report for the week of March 22-28 on Thursday .
Last week ’ s figures showed a record 3.28 million jobless claims .
On Saturday , April 4 , the U.K. Labour Party will announce its new leader to replace Jeremy Corbyn .
The candidates still in the running are all members of Parliament : Lisa Nandy , Rebecca Long-Bailey , and Keir @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home under lockdown a heavy burden , spare a thought for the workers of the Consomed medical equipment factory in Tunisia .
Rather than risk contamination , 150 workers have moved into their factory and lived there for the past 8 days , sleeping in dormitories and making up to 50,000 medical masks per day .
They have carved out spaces for dancing , football , and basketball—and a physician and pharmacist have joined them on site .
According to the BBC , they have enough supplies to last for a month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Trump extends lockdown until April 30, Syria reports its first coronavirus death, and North Korea launches more missiles.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Trump extends lockdown until April 30, Syria reports its first coronavirus death, and North Korea launches more missiles.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
U.S. Social Distancing to Continue Until End of April
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump dangled the possibility of reopening the U.S. economy by Easter. Now he has changed his mind. At a White House Rose Garden briefing, Trump extended the current guidelines on social distancing until April 30, keeping the United States in line with measures taken by other nations gripped by the coronavirus pandemic to keep their populations at home. The United States has the highest number of coronavirus cases worldwide at 143,025, according to Johns Hopkins University.
How high will the death toll be? A senior member of Trump’s coronavirus task force, Anthony Fauci, told CNN the outbreak could cause 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the United States alone before qualifying his estimate, “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection, when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people,” he said.
In New York, the state worst hit by coronavirus in terms of total numbers infected and total deaths, steps are being taken to extend capacity in an overwhelmed hospital system. Today, a 1,000-bed temporary hospital opens in Manhattan’s Javits Center, a 68-bed overflow field hospital is near completion in Central Park, and a U.S. Navy hospital ship, the USNS Comfort, is due to dock in New York city, having made the journey from Norfolk, Virginia.
How prepared are U.S. hospitals for a surge in cases? Compared to other wealthy nations, the United States lags behind on several key measures. The United States has fewer practicing physicians, fewer hospital-employed physicians, and a lower number of hospitals per capita than most wealthy nations, according to data compiled by the Kaiser Family Foundation. It also has a lower number of hospital beds per 1,000 people: 2.8 compared to South Korea’s 12.
Perhaps most worrying in a pandemic, Americans are more likely to forgo medical care due to its cost: In 2016, 33 percent of Americans reported they either did not see a doctor when they were sick, skipped a medical test or treatment, or did not fill a prescription because of the cost in the past year.
What We’re Following Today
Former Venezuelan in talks with U.S. Hugo Carvajal, the former head of Venezuelan military intelligence, is reported to be in talks with the United States after his indictment on Thursday along with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Carvajal, who has backed Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s next leader, is in hiding after a Spanish court approved extraditing him to the United States in November.
Japan prepares stimulus. After initially saying coronavirus funds would be taken from existing budgets, Japan is now preparing a stimulus package from a supplementary budget that will be put together over the next 10 days. In a press conference, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his government would “lay out a stimulus package of unprecedented size that will exceed the one compiled after the Lehman crisis.”
Syria records first coronavirus death. Syria reported its first coronavirus-related death yesterday as the United Nations and World Health Organization both issued warnings of the risk of a major outbreak in the war-ravaged country. Writing in Foreign Policy last week, Steven Cook outlined the stakes for Syria and the world if Syria’s outbreak takes a turn for the worse.
North Korea continues missile testing. North Korea’s military fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the ocean yesterday, its eighth and ninth missile tests this month. In a statement, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff called the tests “very inappropriate” in light of the global coronavirus pandemic. According to calculations made by Shea Cotton at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, North Korea has fired more missiles in March than in any previous month.
Keep an Eye On
India’s lockdown fallout. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked “forgiveness from all my countrymen” over the country’s three-week lockdown. Photos and videos emerged over the weekend of migrant workers crowding bus stations as they attempted to return home.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Rana Ayyub reports on the toll the lockdown will take on the country’s day laborers, who depend on a daily income to survive. “How easy it is for the prime minister to say do not step out of your houses,” one man told her. “If I do not go out for a week, my children and my wife will die.”
Poland headed for May election. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party forced through changes to the country’s electoral code over the weekend that could better their chances in a May presidential election that is slated to go ahead as scheduled. Poland’s constitutional court has ruled in the past that any electoral changes must take place six months before any election—the changes made on Saturday include allowing postal voting for the elderly or those in quarantine.
Marcin Horala, a lawmaker with Law and Justice pushed back against critics of the move on Twitter, “The ban on changing the rules six months before the elections concerns its essential elements, such as the size of constituencies … Technical and organizational changes are allowed,” he wrote.
Missiles over Riyadh. On Saturday, Saudi Arabia intercepted two ballistic missiles over Riyadh, leaving two civilians “slightly injured.” Yemen’s Houthis took responsibility for the strike, with a spokesman saying they were targeted at “sensitive” sites. It’s the first attempted strike on Riyadh since June 2018. The foiled strike appears to upset possibilities for peace after both the Saudi coalition and Houthis welcomed a call by the United Nations for a global cease-fire due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The World This Week
NATO foreign ministers will meet on Thursday, April 2. In keeping with the new coronavirus guidelines, the meeting will take place via video conference.
The U.S. Department of Labor releases its jobs report for the week of March 22-28 on Thursday. Last week’s figures showed a record 3.28 million jobless claims.
On Saturday, April 4, the U.K. Labour Party will announce its new leader to replace Jeremy Corbyn. The candidates still in the running are all members of Parliament: Lisa Nandy, Rebecca Long-Bailey, and Keir Starmer.
Odds and Ends
If you are finding being at home under lockdown a heavy burden, spare a thought for the workers of the Consomed medical equipment factory in Tunisia. Rather than risk contamination, 150 workers have moved into their factory and lived there for the past 8 days, sleeping in dormitories and making up to 50,000 medical masks per day. They have carved out spaces for dancing, football, and basketball—and a physician and pharmacist have joined them on site. According to the BBC, they have enough supplies to last for a month.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.