foreignpolicy--2020-03-27--Amid Coronavirus Spread, Host Countries Ignore Refugee Health at Their Own Peril

Amid Coronavirus Spread , Host Countries Ignore Refugee Health at Their Own Peril As the world braces against COVID-19 , governments , health systems , and international organizations are grappling with the ways in which the pandemic will disproportionately harm the most vulnerable members of society .
Of those vulnerable groups , refugees are uniquely at risk of experiencing severe illness and death .
Yet many countries ’ pandemic plans—including countries hosting large numbers of refugees , migrants , and displaced persons—do not explicitly account for the complex needs of this population during such a health crisis .
In recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate change , and political instability have led to a surge in the number of refugees worldwide .
In 2019 , there were 20.4 million refugees under the mandate of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees ( UNHCR ) , up from nearly 17.2 million in 2016 .
Globally , some 70.8 million people are forcibly displaced .
Already , 199 countries and territories have reported confirmed cases of the coronavirus .
This number includes four of the countries with the largest refugee populations : Germany , Sudan , Pakistan , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries that host tens of thousands of refugees .
In response to the pandemic , UNHCR has appealed for $ 33 million to improve conditions at refugee camps and settlements by , among other things , expanding primary and secondary health services , establishing surveillance networks , and countering the spread of misinformation among refugee communities .
These efforts alone will not be enough .
More than 80 percent of the world ’ s refugees reside in low- and middle-income countries—many of which already report larger numbers of HIV/AIDS cases , lower rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ malnutrition than their higher-income counterparts .
These are conditions that weaken people ’ s immune systems , rendering them susceptible to a range of other infections .
As a result , many refugees remain especially vulnerable to emerging threats like the coronavirus .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
The destruction of health facilities , unstable supply chains , and health care worker shortages further prevent refugees from accessing much-needed diagnostic testing and medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective precautionary measures against the coronavirus—social distancing and hand-washing—are extremely difficult to implement in camps and settlements , where space , shelter , soap , and clean water are often in short supply .
These living conditions often catalyze disease transmission , threatening the well-being of refugees living in settlements as well as those residing in host communities .
This holds especially true when there is high traffic between the two settings and when the host community already struggles with substandard health care .
Low immunization coverage and limited health service access among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ivory Coast , for instance , have resulted in outbreaks of such vaccine-preventable diseases as measles among both groups .
Recognizing the unique threat that this pandemic poses , UNHCR , the International Organization for Migration ( IOM ) , the World Health Organization , and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies recently released interim guidance outlining COVID-19 readiness and response considerations for refugee camps and camp-like settings .
On March 17 , UNHCR and IOM also announced a temporary suspension of refugee resettlement travel .
Though travel restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world , flattening the curve among refugees will require additional solutions in both the near and distant terms .
Immediate steps should include expanding testing services in countries with large refugee populations and setting up screening facilities at camps and settlements .
Health care workers and volunteers must also be mobilized and trained to support testing efforts in humanitarian settings , trace contacts , and identify and isolate people who may have been exposed to the virus in these settings .
Provincial- and district-level public health authorities and their partners should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ensure that refugees are aware of the potential risks of coronavirus , receive information about how to protect themselves , and retain access to needed social services .
For their part , international organizations , nongovernmental organizations , manufacturers , and ministries of health and finance should consider strategies for repurposing or leveraging existing global health procurement mechanisms to ensure that health workers caring for refugees can access affordable supplies of gloves , masks , essential medicines , and other assets needed to treat large influxes of sick patients .
Public-private partnerships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and civil society stakeholders could prove instrumental in ensuring that these solutions can be feasibly implemented .
Given the wide-ranging impacts of COVID-19 on economies and health systems at both regional and global levels , country governments should also leverage partnerships with humanitarian organizations and other nations .
Such multilateral approaches can help ensure that refugee health needs are sufficiently addressed regionally as well as nationally .
Admittedly , coordinating this kind of multi-sectoral response during a crisis demands significant funding and political will .
To that end , António Guterres , secretary-general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a humanitarian appeal for $ 2 billion to combat the ongoing pandemic and its impacts on refugees and displaced persons .
Though even wealthy countries are struggling to test and care for sick patients with COVID-19 , supporting humanitarian efforts to protect refugee health should still remain a top priority for decision-makers .
Given the magnitude of this outbreak , the ways in which it has torn the social fabric of communities , and the enormous damage it has already inflicted upon the global economy , it is clear that no country can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The costs of allowing the disease to continue spreading are simply too great .
Short-term measures will help countries avert inequitable losses of health and life among vulnerable refugees during this pandemic .
But preparing for future emergencies will require longer-term solutions , too .
Countries should incorporate refugee needs into the routine steps they take to protect themselves—for example , by revising pandemic plans to include language on refugees , practicing these plans using routine exercises , building and training health workforces to meet the complex health needs of refugee populations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for addressing refugee needs during public health emergencies .
This approach could improve strategies for vaccinating refugees , purchasing and administering needed medicines , and ensuring continued access to essential primary care , reproductive , and mental health services during a pandemic .
There are several reasons why many countries have not already addressed refugee needs in routine pandemic planning .
In some cases , countries have explicitly stated that they are unable or unwilling to provide refugees with the same rights and access to health services as citizens , citing perceived threats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others , accounting for refugee needs in pandemic planning presents decision-makers with major technical challenges .
For example , legal and administrative barriers often prevent refugees from accessing health services in some host countries .
In conflict settings , national governments may not retain full political control over certain regions , which could create health coverage gaps among residents who fall outside their jurisdiction .
In addition , conflict often results in medical brain drain—an exodus of the public health and health care workers who would otherwise form the backbone of a strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and mobility of refugee populations in some settings makes it difficult for health officials in host countries to track people at risk of infection and ensure that sufficient medical supplies are readily available .
Past outbreaks—from Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and measles in Kenya , to cholera in Haiti and every year ’ s bout of seasonal influenza—have shown that these challenges , unsurprisingly , limit health service access and exacerbate the impacts of disease in refugee settings .
Though such challenges are inevitable , there are still strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to protect refugees .
Pandemic plans that are inclusive of refugee needs align with the United Nations ’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights , which affirms every person ’ s right to health .
Similarly , the Geneva Conventions protect access to health care during armed conflict .
The U.N. ’ s 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol forbid ratifying nations from forcibly returning refugees to home countries where they may face threats to their lives .
Refugee advocates have argued that this principle , known as non-refoulement , holds true even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be rejected based on real or perceived fears of coronavirus transmission , especially since viruses do not respect national borders .
When countries fail to protect refugees from infectious disease threats , all of society shoulders the ensuing risk .
Some political leaders have attempted to assign blame for the outbreak to refugees and migrants .
Matteo Salvini , the right-wing leader of Italy ’ s Lega Nord party , wrongly declared that African migrants were responsible for introducing coronavirus to Italy .
Hungary ’ s prime minister , Viktor Orbán , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus and illegal immigration .
And just days ago , the Trump administration announced that it would halt the processing of undocumented migrants and asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border , citing concerns about the spread of COVID-19 in the United States .
Such unjustified claims only stigmatize refugees most at risk of illness and death—making it increasingly difficult for them to access and receive care during large-scale crises .
The geopolitical backdrop of coronavirus makes refugee health protection an even more urgent public health priority .
Even repatriated or resettled refugees struggle to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ homes due to social stigmatization and language barriers .
Nationalism , isolationism , and xenophobia—forces that further marginalize refugees and make health care harder to access—are antithetical to effective pandemic response .
If refugees are afraid or unable to seek medical care , it will be impossible to halt the spread of coronavirus .
Global crises demand global cooperation .
When countries embrace multilateralism , undertake planning efforts that include marginalized groups , and uphold international norms around equitable access to health care , they create a safety net for those who need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harm .
The coronavirus has laid bare an ominous truth : that the world will never be truly prepared for future pandemics until we equip our global health architecture to meet the needs of our most vulnerable .

As the world braces against COVID-19, governments, health systems, and international organizations are grappling with the ways in which the pandemic will disproportionately harm the most vulnerable members of society. Of those vulnerable groups, refugees are uniquely at risk of experiencing severe illness and death. Yet many countries’ pandemic plans —including countries hosting large numbers of refugees, migrants, and displaced persons—do not explicitly account for the complex needs of this population during such a health crisis.
As the world braces against COVID-19, governments, health systems, and international organizations are grappling with the ways in which the pandemic will disproportionately harm the most vulnerable members of society. Of those vulnerable groups, refugees are uniquely at risk of experiencing severe illness and death. Yet many countries’ pandemic plans—including countries hosting large numbers of refugees, migrants, and displaced persons—do not explicitly account for the complex needs of this population during such a health crisis.
In recent years, conflict, forced migration, climate change, and political instability have led to a surge in the number of refugees worldwide. In 2019, there were 20.4 million refugees under the mandate of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), up from nearly 17.2 million in 2016. Globally, some 70.8 million people are forcibly displaced.
Already, 199 countries and territories have reported confirmed cases of the coronavirus. This number includes four of the countries with the largest refugee populations: Germany, Sudan, Pakistan, and Turkey. And it includes dozens more countries that host tens of thousands of refugees. In response to the pandemic, UNHCR has appealed for $33 million to improve conditions at refugee camps and settlements by, among other things, expanding primary and secondary health services, establishing surveillance networks, and countering the spread of misinformation among refugee communities.
These efforts alone will not be enough. More than 80 percent of the world’s refugees reside in low- and middle-income countries—many of which already report larger numbers of HIV/AIDS cases, lower rates of immunization, and higher rates of malnutrition than their higher-income counterparts. These are conditions that weaken people’s immune systems, rendering them susceptible to a range of other infections. As a result, many refugees remain especially vulnerable to emerging threats like the coronavirus.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
The destruction of health facilities, unstable supply chains, and health care worker shortages further prevent refugees from accessing much-needed diagnostic testing and medical care. And two of the most effective precautionary measures against the coronavirus—social distancing and hand-washing—are extremely difficult to implement in camps and settlements, where space, shelter, soap, and clean water are often in short supply. These living conditions often catalyze disease transmission, threatening the well-being of refugees living in settlements as well as those residing in host communities. This holds especially true when there is high traffic between the two settings and when the host community already struggles with substandard health care. Low immunization coverage and limited health service access among refugees and host communities in Kenya and Ivory Coast, for instance, have resulted in outbreaks of such vaccine-preventable diseases as measles among both groups.
Recognizing the unique threat that this pandemic poses, UNHCR, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the World Health Organization, and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies recently released interim guidance outlining COVID-19 readiness and response considerations for refugee camps and camp-like settings. On March 17, UNHCR and IOM also announced a temporary suspension of refugee resettlement travel. Though travel restrictions have already been implemented in many parts of the world, flattening the curve among refugees will require additional solutions in both the near and distant terms.
Immediate steps should include expanding testing services in countries with large refugee populations and setting up screening facilities at camps and settlements. Health care workers and volunteers must also be mobilized and trained to support testing efforts in humanitarian settings, trace contacts, and identify and isolate people who may have been exposed to the virus in these settings. Provincial- and district-level public health authorities and their partners should undertake robust community engagement and communication efforts to ensure that refugees are aware of the potential risks of coronavirus, receive information about how to protect themselves, and retain access to needed social services. For their part, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, manufacturers, and ministries of health and finance should consider strategies for repurposing or leveraging existing global health procurement mechanisms to ensure that health workers caring for refugees can access affordable supplies of gloves, masks, essential medicines, and other assets needed to treat large influxes of sick patients.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
Public-private partnerships between host country governments and key private-sector and civil society stakeholders could prove instrumental in ensuring that these solutions can be feasibly implemented. Given the wide-ranging impacts of COVID-19 on economies and health systems at both regional and global levels, country governments should also leverage partnerships with humanitarian organizations and other nations. Such multilateral approaches can help ensure that refugee health needs are sufficiently addressed regionally as well as nationally.
Admittedly, coordinating this kind of multi-sectoral response during a crisis demands significant funding and political will. To that end, António Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations, recently issued a humanitarian appeal for $2 billion to combat the ongoing pandemic and its impacts on refugees and displaced persons. Though even wealthy countries are struggling to test and care for sick patients with COVID-19, supporting humanitarian efforts to protect refugee health should still remain a top priority for decision-makers. Given the magnitude of this outbreak, the ways in which it has torn the social fabric of communities, and the enormous damage it has already inflicted upon the global economy, it is clear that no country can afford to leave its most vulnerable behind. The costs of allowing the disease to continue spreading are simply too great.
Short-term measures will help countries avert inequitable losses of health and life among vulnerable refugees during this pandemic. But preparing for future emergencies will require longer-term solutions, too. Countries should incorporate refugee needs into the routine steps they take to protect themselves—for example, by revising pandemic plans to include language on refugees, practicing these plans using routine exercises, building and training health workforces to meet the complex health needs of refugee populations, and establishing new lines of funding for addressing refugee needs during public health emergencies. This approach could improve strategies for vaccinating refugees, purchasing and administering needed medicines, and ensuring continued access to essential primary care, reproductive, and mental health services during a pandemic.
There are several reasons why many countries have not already addressed refugee needs in routine pandemic planning. In some cases, countries have explicitly stated that they are unable or unwilling to provide refugees with the same rights and access to health services as citizens, citing perceived threats to state sovereignty. But in many others, accounting for refugee needs in pandemic planning presents decision-makers with major technical challenges. For example, legal and administrative barriers often prevent refugees from accessing health services in some host countries. In conflict settings, national governments may not retain full political control over certain regions, which could create health coverage gaps among residents who fall outside their jurisdiction. In addition, conflict often results in medical brain drain—an exodus of the public health and health care workers who would otherwise form the backbone of a strong pandemic response. And the sheer size and mobility of refugee populations in some settings makes it difficult for health officials in host countries to track people at risk of infection and ensure that sufficient medical supplies are readily available. Past outbreaks—from Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and measles in Kenya, to cholera in Haiti and every year’s bout of seasonal influenza—have shown that these challenges, unsurprisingly, limit health service access and exacerbate the impacts of disease in refugee settings.
Though such challenges are inevitable, there are still strong legal, moral, and humanitarian imperatives to protect refugees. Pandemic plans that are inclusive of refugee needs align with the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which affirms every person’s right to health. Similarly, the Geneva Conventions protect access to health care during armed conflict. The U.N.’s 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol forbid ratifying nations from forcibly returning refugees to home countries where they may face threats to their lives. Refugee advocates have argued that this principle, known as non-refoulement, holds true even amid the coronavirus outbreak. Refugees should not be rejected based on real or perceived fears of coronavirus transmission, especially since viruses do not respect national borders. When countries fail to protect refugees from infectious disease threats, all of society shoulders the ensuing risk.
Some political leaders have attempted to assign blame for the outbreak to refugees and migrants. Matteo Salvini, the right-wing leader of Italy’s Lega Nord party, wrongly declared that African migrants were responsible for introducing coronavirus to Italy. Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, also alleged a false link between the virus and illegal immigration. And just days ago, the Trump administration announced that it would halt the processing of undocumented migrants and asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border, citing concerns about the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Such unjustified claims only stigmatize refugees most at risk of illness and death—making it increasingly difficult for them to access and receive care during large-scale crises.
The geopolitical backdrop of coronavirus makes refugee health protection an even more urgent public health priority. Even repatriated or resettled refugees struggle to seek and receive care in their new homes due to social stigmatization and language barriers. Nationalism, isolationism, and xenophobia—forces that further marginalize refugees and make health care harder to access—are antithetical to effective pandemic response. If refugees are afraid or unable to seek medical care, it will be impossible to halt the spread of coronavirus.
Global crises demand global cooperation. When countries embrace multilateralism, undertake planning efforts that include marginalized groups, and uphold international norms around equitable access to health care, they create a safety net for those who need it most and insure them against disproportionate harm. The coronavirus has laid bare an ominous truth: that the world will never be truly prepared for future pandemics until we equip our global health architecture to meet the needs of our most vulnerable.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-27--Putting Lipstick on a Bigotry

Putting Lipstick on a Bigotry

Power-hungry advisors are a stock character in British government , from Thomas Cromwell ( who served Henry VIII ) to Alastair Campbell ( who served Prime Minister Tony Blair ) and Dominic Cummings ( whose will current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rubber-stamped by installing a slavish cabinet ) .
They take kings ’ and prime ministers ’ reflected power as their own , overrule dukes and cabinet ministers , reward friends , and punish an ever-growing list of foes .
Their fatal flaw is always the same : to ignore the folk wisdom that dictates “ take care of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ ll take care of you on the way down.
” Nick Timothy , who advised former Prime Minister Theresa May , was no exception .
Ruthless in his pomp , he was just as ruthlessly thrown overboard after May lost her parliamentary majority in the 2017 election .
Now , Timothy has published his manifesto : a book titled Remaking One Nation : Conservatism in the Age of Crisis , released this month in the United Kingdom .
Timothy opens by name-dropping the globally famous political consultants Jim Messina and Lynton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister he served—whom he always calls “ Theresa ” and frequently depicts as “ crying ” and “ terrified.
” Timothy blames everyone but himself for the Conservative Party ’ s 2017 defeat in that disastrous election of choice that he had persuaded his boss to call .
He is not unduly taxed by the requirements of consistency .
“ The logic of populism , ” he writes , “ means the checks and balances required by liberal democracy—independent courts , a free media , parliamentary scrutiny , a strong civil society , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” only to later demand that “ the Human Rights Act should be scrapped .
The process of judicial review—used to challenge government decisions over and again and at great cost—should be reformed and restricted.
” Despite this , Timothy , who wrote Theresa May ’ s infamous “ citizens of nowhere ” speech and condemns “ elite liberals ” throughout this book for despising the white working class , insists he ’ s against populism .
Timothy blames everyone but himself for the Conservative Party ’ s 2017 defeat in that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ persuaded his boss to call .
Had these contradictions been ironed out by a tough editor , Remaking One Nation would be an unusually frank and perceptive defense of the return of nationalism to Western democracies .
Unlike others who have written on the topic such as David Goodhart ( schooled at Britain ’ s elite Eton College ) or Eric Kaufmann ( an immigrant from Canada ) , Timothy is a native son of Britain ’ s white working class who fought his way up to the highest levels of national politics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a culture he loves and whose eclipse he fears .
At his most perceptive moment , Timothy turns to a relatively obscure part of the philosopher Isaiah Berlin ’ s Two Concepts of Liberty .
Berlin observes that when people demand freedom , what they sometimes “ seek to avoid is simply being ignored , or patronized or despised , or being taken too much for granted.
” But whereas Berlin warned that “ confounding liberty with her sisters , equality and fraternity , leads to similarly illiberal conclusions , ” Timothy ignores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ embraces the primacy of fraternity , fixing the nation on top as the “ apex ” of identity .
This sense of ethnic solidarity has , according to Timothy , been taken away from the white working class by economics-obsessed “ elite liberals ” and postmodernist left-wing “ ultra-liberals , ” who deny the white working class the collective identity they enthusiastically grant to ethnic , religious , and sexual minorities .
Timothy is clearly worked up about “ white decline ” and explicitly sees the matter in ethnic if not racial terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working-class whites ’ loss of position , wealth , and influence in society .
The world in which they were once the center of the country ’ s economic might and technical prowess , proudly organized in large workplaces that gave them a sense of community is gone .
Industrial jobs are now found at the bottom of the pecking order .
Pay is low and the future uncertain after years of retrenchment and restructuring .
Far higher living standards including foreign vacations in the sun , central heating , and widespread car @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the loss of importance—something felt particularly by working-class men whose fathers provided for a family but who themselves earn less than their wives , if they ’ re lucky enough to have one .
This condition is partly the result of feminism—working class women are in a far better social position than their mothers—a tectonic social shift that Timothy doesn ’ t address except to call for more state-funded child care .
It is also , perhaps paradoxically , the effect of that prosperity .
Decades of economic growth have raised labor costs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unprofitable .
Labor-intensive industry can ’ t generate the output needed to sustain a comfortable Western lifestyle .
Stable industrial jobs for uneducated people to make things don ’ t exist anymore , because Britain has become too rich .
The manufacturing that survives in the U.K. has become a high-tech employer of qualified engineers .
It is only profitable to employ the unskilled in poorer countries like China or Morocco .
Timothy is simply wrong when he attributes job losses to immigration .
The working class is also older—and as ever more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ graduate jobs in professional sectors , it has become smaller .
Moreover , the fact that the average age among working-class Britons is 66 means that more than half of its members don ’ t actually work anymore .
The fact that the average age among working-class Britons is 66 means that more than half of its members don ’ t actually work anymore .
This has powerful political consequences .
Working-class British retirees tend to vote in large numbers , but they are insulated from current economic realities by generous state pensions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take part in the production of culture .
They feel at sea in a society moving forward without them .
This , writes Timothy , allows “ elite liberals and left-liberals [ to ] routinely castigate them , in politics , the media and the arts and entertainment .
Their patriotism is seen as racist , their Euroscepticism as xenophobic.
” He goes on to argue that these retirees ’ “ concerns about job security and the decline of their communities is hopelessly parochial to ultra-liberals excited about globalization , disruptive technologies and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for denouncing his political opponents , Timothy fails to see this decline as a product of social changes similar to those that marginalized agriculture in the early 20th century .
Just as hardly anyone lives off the land anymore , fewer and fewer people will live from unskilled factory work .
Instead , he sees the disappearance of manufacturing jobs as an injustice carried out by perpetrators .
It is the “ liberals , ” whom he condemns for imagining “ citizens as autonomous individuals who should throw off prejudice and superstition , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wants nonetheless—if we are to take him at face value—to defend what he calls “ essential liberalism ” where “ Governments are elected , and power is transferred peacefully from one party to another .
But there are also important checks and balances to protect minority interests.
” Writing , at this point in the book , as though he is against populism , Timothy goes on to specify : “ These include the separation of powers between government , parliament and the courts , a bicameral legislature , an independent judiciary , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the military , a free press , and laws and norms that guarantee individual rights.
” The trust generated by a strong community that underlies this political arrangement has partly , he thinks , been destroyed by identity politics-obsessed “ ultra-liberals , ” but it is the “ elite liberals ” who are the main focus of his scorn .
These people , he said , were who he had in mind when he wrote those notorious lines in Theresa May ’ s 2016 speech : “ too many people in positions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more in common with international elites than with the people down the road , the people they employ , the people they pass in the street .
But if you believe you ’ re a citizen of the world , you ’ re a citizen of nowhere .
You don ’ t understand what the very word ‘ citizenship ’ means.
” They are guilty of “ excessive individualism ” and an obsession with economic outcomes , Timothy argues .
He holds them responsible for a situation in which “ a clear majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect to be worse off than their parents ’ generation , ” because the “ elite liberals ” are “ incapable of responding to this changing world ” ; “ They refuse to question free trade ” ; “ They mix in privileged and gilded circles , remote from the reality of ordinary , everyday life , and blame everybody but themselves for the rise of populism.
” Here , his attack on elite liberalism echoes remarks by Hungarian leader Viktor Orban .
Timothy writes that liberals “ cling to their belief in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments that had been run by such elite liberals as Tony Blair and David Cameron in the U.K. and Nicolas Sarkozy in France in fact pursued expensive and restrictive immigration policies .
He relies on the discredited “ elephant chart ” ( whose data showing declining living standards for a proportion of the world ’ s population was too simplistically held to blame immigration for economic hardship in the Western white working class ) for its economic claims .
These errors weaken what is otherwise a strong critique of a soulless optimizing consensus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the 2008 financial crisis .
Timothy is at his best when tearing down the self-deception of a governing class that thought it knew best but had forgotten how to persuade people of its ideas , or that it even needed to do so .
This period under New Labour and David Cameron was the heyday of the Behavioral Insights Team , known as the “ nudge unit , ” which sought to abuse behavioral science , now under fire for slowing Britain ’ s response to the coronavirus epidemic , to manipulate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussing and addressing the problems they experienced .
In fact , Timothy fuses a classical communitarian critique of liberalism—that individuals are not merely billiard balls that bounce off each other without needing to belong to a larger society ; we are part of a continuous chain of the dead , the living , and those yet to be born ; that business has a responsibility beyond the narrow pursuit of profit ; and so on—with authentically populist anger at the governing elite .
Their agency having been “ nudged ” out of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Berlin ’ s “ ignored , or patronized , or despised.
” An episode during the 2010 British election campaign highlighted this perfectly .
Prime Minister Gordon Brown found himself accosted by a voter , Gillian Duffy , complaining about immigration .
Instead of trying to persuade her or argue with her—as U.S. Sen. John McCain or Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did in similar situations—Brown pretended to agree , only to be caught later on a microphone muttering about “ that bigoted woman.
” It is immigration that Timothy , who was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ served Theresa May at the Home Office from 2010 to 2015 and oversaw the so-called hostile environment policy , puts at the center of his fusion of communitarian and populism .
Seeking a parallel to the transition from ethnic to civic nationalism , Timothy attempts a move from ethnic to civic xenophobia .
Civic xenophobia is a favorite of Tory home secretaries descended from immigrants .
Current Home Secretary Priti Patel recently struggled to justify immigration rules she had just introduced that could have excluded her own parents , who came to Britain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Howard , a Tory home secretary in the 1990s , ran into the same problem with the story of his own father , who had to be smuggled out of Nazi-occupied Europe .
Timothy , however , is the first to intellectualize this position .
Toward British citizens of all backgrounds he sometimes adopts a technocratic and egalitarian stance : To help more people from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds into the workplace , for example , there should be a multi-agency programme to work with younger people , especially women and girls , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ qualifications , apply for jobs and travel back and forth to work .
Yet despite his well-meaning support for job training and commuter subsidies , he can ’ t avoid the gravitational pull of ethnic hierarchy .
“ Britain ’ s immigration rules ” he writes “ should reflect the quite understandable desire of the majority group to slow the pace of change and protect and preserve their cultural identity.
” Of course we ’ ll treat you equally , this says to Britain ’ s ethnic minorities , we just don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come here in the first place .
If this makes sense to Timothy , it ’ s because he rejects as an affectation of “ ultra-liberalism ” the idea that has been the basis of Western politics since the American and French revolutions , namely that “ there are timeless , universal and indivisible human rights.
” He prefers what he calls “ ordered pluralism ” grounded on the principle that “ for a society to function it must , to some degree , be exclusive ” and that there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the majority group to express and enjoy their ethnic and cultural identities in a peaceful and positive manner.
” Anyone with a knowledge of 20th-century European history will raise an eyebrow at the phrase “ nothing inherently dangerous , ” but Timothy doesn ’ t stop at the assertion of ethnic privilege .
He denies that outsiders are racially or culturally inferior ; they are simply from somewhere else .
He justifies his ethnic exclusion based on his concept of society , which needs in principle to “ grant rights , privileges and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them to non-members.
” It is “ axiomatic , ” he argues , that a society that doesn ’ t do so would “ cease to function.
” Those who are denied rights aren ’ t inferior .
They ’ re not to be blamed , either .
Their exclusion is incidental to any feature they have ; it ’ s merely necessary to give us a functioning society .
Timothy ’ s axiom is simply false .
Ethnic diversity has not torn Canada , Australia , or New Zealand apart .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is primarily people arguing against diversity and equality who are the main source of interethnic tensions and societal dysfunction .
A grim reminder reminder came in February when a middle-aged German man murdered several people of Middle Eastern descent in Hanau , near Frankfurt .
Timothy has taken himself on a dark journey , familiar to observers of other societies who feel under siege—from a valid concern for the white working class , ignored and patronized by the political elite , to criticizing liberals for opposing superstition and prejudice , to attacking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to supporting ethnic cultural privilege and arriving at the position that others must be excluded—not for anything they are , or have done , or might do , but simply in order to sustain his own society .
His England is one that can only survive by making scapegoats of the world .
A nation remade in that image doesn ’ t deserve to .

Power-hungry advisors are a stock character in British government, from Thomas Cromwell (who served Henry VIII) to Alastair Campbell (who served Prime Minister Tony Blair) and Dominic Cummings (whose will current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rubber-stamped by installing a slavish cabinet).
Power-hungry advisors are a stock character in British government, from Thomas Cromwell (who served Henry VIII) to Alastair Campbell (who served Prime Minister Tony Blair) and Dominic Cummings (whose will current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rubber-stamped by installing a slavish cabinet).
They take kings’ and prime ministers’ reflected power as their own, overrule dukes and cabinet ministers, reward friends, and punish an ever-growing list of foes. Their fatal flaw is always the same: to ignore the folk wisdom that dictates “take care of people on the way up, and they’ll take care of you on the way down.” Nick Timothy, who advised former Prime Minister Theresa May, was no exception. Ruthless in his pomp, he was just as ruthlessly thrown overboard after May lost her parliamentary majority in the 2017 election.
Now, Timothy has published his manifesto: a book titled Remaking One Nation: Conservatism in the Age of Crisis, released this month in the United Kingdom. Timothy opens by name-dropping the globally famous political consultants Jim Messina and Lynton Crosby, as well as the prime minister he served—whom he always calls “Theresa” and frequently depicts as “crying” and “terrified.” Timothy blames everyone but himself for the Conservative Party’s 2017 defeat in that disastrous election of choice that he had persuaded his boss to call.
He is not unduly taxed by the requirements of consistency. “The logic of populism,” he writes, “means the checks and balances required by liberal democracy—independent courts, a free media, parliamentary scrutiny, a strong civil society, rights and protections for minorities—come under attack,” only to later demand that “the Human Rights Act should be scrapped.
The process of judicial review—used to challenge government decisions over and again and at great cost—should be reformed and restricted.” Despite this, Timothy, who wrote Theresa May’s infamous “citizens of nowhere” speech and condemns “elite liberals” throughout this book for despising the white working class, insists he’s against populism.
Timothy blames everyone but himself for the Conservative Party’s 2017 defeat in that disastrous election of choice that he had persuaded his boss to call.
Had these contradictions been ironed out by a tough editor, Remaking One Nation would be an unusually frank and perceptive defense of the return of nationalism to Western democracies. Unlike others who have written on the topic such as David Goodhart (schooled at Britain’s elite Eton College) or Eric Kaufmann (an immigrant from Canada), Timothy is a native son of Britain’s white working class who fought his way up to the highest levels of national politics. This book is his tribute to a culture he loves and whose eclipse he fears.
At his most perceptive moment, Timothy turns to a relatively obscure part of the philosopher Isaiah Berlin’s Two Concepts of Liberty. Berlin observes that when people demand freedom, what they sometimes “seek to avoid is simply being ignored, or patronized or despised, or being taken too much for granted.”
But whereas Berlin warned that “confounding liberty with her sisters, equality and fraternity, leads to similarly illiberal conclusions,” Timothy ignores the philosopher’s red flag and embraces the primacy of fraternity, fixing the nation on top as the “apex” of identity. This sense of ethnic solidarity has, according to Timothy, been taken away from the white working class by economics-obsessed “elite liberals” and postmodernist left-wing “ultra-liberals,” who deny the white working class the collective identity they enthusiastically grant to ethnic, religious, and sexual minorities.
Timothy is clearly worked up about “white decline” and explicitly sees the matter in ethnic if not racial terms. He’s right to note working-class whites’ loss of position, wealth, and influence in society. The world in which they were once the center of the country’s economic might and technical prowess, proudly organized in large workplaces that gave them a sense of community is gone.
Industrial jobs are now found at the bottom of the pecking order. Pay is low and the future uncertain after years of retrenchment and restructuring. Far higher living standards including foreign vacations in the sun, central heating, and widespread car ownership don’t make up for the loss of importance—something felt particularly by working-class men whose fathers provided for a family but who themselves earn less than their wives, if they’re lucky enough to have one.
This condition is partly the result of feminism—working class women are in a far better social position than their mothers—a tectonic social shift that Timothy doesn’t address except to call for more state-funded child care. It is also, perhaps paradoxically, the effect of that prosperity. Decades of economic growth have raised labor costs to a level that makes unskilled manufacturing unprofitable.
Labor-intensive industry can’t generate the output needed to sustain a comfortable Western lifestyle. Stable industrial jobs for uneducated people to make things don’t exist anymore, because Britain has become too rich. The manufacturing that survives in the U.K. has become a high-tech employer of qualified engineers. It is only profitable to employ the unskilled in poorer countries like China or Morocco. Timothy is simply wrong when he attributes job losses to immigration.
The working class is also older—and as ever more young people go to university and take graduate jobs in professional sectors, it has become smaller. Moreover, the fact that the average age among working-class Britons is 66 means that more than half of its members don’t actually work anymore.
The fact that the average age among working-class Britons is 66 means that more than half of its members don’t actually work anymore.
This has powerful political consequences. Working-class British retirees tend to vote in large numbers, but they are insulated from current economic realities by generous state pensions. They consume but don’t take part in the production of culture. They feel at sea in a society moving forward without them.
This, writes Timothy, allows “elite liberals and left-liberals [to] routinely castigate them, in politics, the media and the arts and entertainment. Their patriotism is seen as racist, their Euroscepticism as xenophobic.” He goes on to argue that these retirees’ “concerns about job security and the decline of their communities is hopelessly parochial to ultra-liberals excited about globalization, disruptive technologies and militant identity politics.”
In his zeal for denouncing his political opponents, Timothy fails to see this decline as a product of social changes similar to those that marginalized agriculture in the early 20th century. Just as hardly anyone lives off the land anymore, fewer and fewer people will live from unskilled factory work. Instead, he sees the disappearance of manufacturing jobs as an injustice carried out by perpetrators. It is the “liberals,” whom he condemns for imagining “citizens as autonomous individuals who should throw off prejudice and superstition,” who are to blame.
Timothy wants nonetheless—if we are to take him at face value—to defend what he calls “essential liberalism” where “Governments are elected, and power is transferred peacefully from one party to another. But there are also important checks and balances to protect minority interests.” Writing, at this point in the book, as though he is against populism, Timothy goes on to specify: “These include the separation of powers between government, parliament and the courts, a bicameral legislature, an independent judiciary, a neutral civil service, civilian control of the military, a free press, and laws and norms that guarantee individual rights.”
The trust generated by a strong community that underlies this political arrangement has partly, he thinks, been destroyed by identity politics-obsessed “ultra-liberals,” but it is the “elite liberals” who are the main focus of his scorn. These people, he said, were who he had in mind when he wrote those notorious lines in Theresa May’s 2016 speech:
“too many people in positions of power behave as though they have more in common with international elites than with the people down the road, the people they employ, the people they pass in the street. But if you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what the very word ‘citizenship’ means.”
They are guilty of “excessive individualism” and an obsession with economic outcomes, Timothy argues.
Timothy’s attack on elite liberalism echoes remarks by Hungarian leader Viktor Orban.
He holds them responsible for a situation in which “a clear majority of British people … consistently say they expect to be worse off than their parents’ generation,” because the “elite liberals” are “incapable of responding to this changing world”; “They refuse to question free trade”; “They mix in privileged and gilded circles, remote from the reality of ordinary, everyday life, and blame everybody but themselves for the rise of populism.”
Here, his attack on elite liberalism echoes remarks by Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. Timothy writes that liberals “cling to their belief in open borders,” even though the governments that had been run by such elite liberals as Tony Blair and David Cameron in the U.K. and Nicolas Sarkozy in France in fact pursued expensive and restrictive immigration policies. He relies on the discredited “elephant chart” (whose data showing declining living standards for a proportion of the world’s population was too simplistically held to blame immigration for economic hardship in the Western white working class) for its economic claims. These errors weaken what is otherwise a strong critique of a soulless optimizing consensus that dominated social policy in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.
Timothy is at his best when tearing down the self-deception of a governing class that thought it knew best but had forgotten how to persuade people of its ideas, or that it even needed to do so. This period under New Labour and David Cameron was the heyday of the Behavioral Insights Team, known as the “nudge unit,” which sought to abuse behavioral science, now under fire for slowing Britain’s response to the coronavirus epidemic, to manipulate the choices people made, instead of discussing and addressing the problems they experienced.
In fact, Timothy fuses a classical communitarian critique of liberalism—that individuals are not merely billiard balls that bounce off each other without needing to belong to a larger society; we are part of a continuous chain of the dead, the living, and those yet to be born; that business has a responsibility beyond the narrow pursuit of profit; and so on—with authentically populist anger at the governing elite. Their agency having been “nudged” out of them, the white working class became Isaiah Berlin’s “ignored, or patronized, or despised.”
An episode during the 2010 British election campaign highlighted this perfectly. Prime Minister Gordon Brown found himself accosted by a voter, Gillian Duffy, complaining about immigration. Instead of trying to persuade her or argue with her—as U.S. Sen. John McCain or Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did in similar situations—Brown pretended to agree, only to be caught later on a microphone muttering about “that bigoted woman.”
It is immigration that Timothy, who was in charge of immigration policy when he served Theresa May at the Home Office from 2010 to 2015 and oversaw the so-called hostile environment policy, puts at the center of his fusion of communitarian and populism. Seeking a parallel to the transition from ethnic to civic nationalism, Timothy attempts a move from ethnic to civic xenophobia.
Civic xenophobia is a favorite of Tory home secretaries descended from immigrants. Current Home Secretary Priti Patel recently struggled to justify immigration rules she had just introduced that could have excluded her own parents, who came to Britain from Uganda in the 1960s. Michael Howard, a Tory home secretary in the 1990s, ran into the same problem with the story of his own father, who had to be smuggled out of Nazi-occupied Europe. Timothy, however, is the first to intellectualize this position.
Toward British citizens of all backgrounds he sometimes adopts a technocratic and egalitarian stance: To help more people from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds into the workplace, for example, there should be a multi-agency programme to work with younger people, especially women and girls, to help them to get the right qualifications, apply for jobs and travel back and forth to work.
Yet despite his well-meaning support for job training and commuter subsidies, he can’t avoid the gravitational pull of ethnic hierarchy. “Britain’s immigration rules” he writes “should reflect the quite understandable desire of the majority group to slow the pace of change and protect and preserve their cultural identity.” Of course we’ll treat you equally, this says to Britain’s ethnic minorities, we just don’t want people who look like you to come here in the first place.
If this makes sense to Timothy, it’s because he rejects as an affectation of “ultra-liberalism” the idea that has been the basis of Western politics since the American and French revolutions, namely that “there are timeless, universal and indivisible human rights.” He prefers what he calls “ordered pluralism” grounded on the principle that “for a society to function it must, to some degree, be exclusive” and that there’s “nothing inherently dangerous … in allowing the majority group to express and enjoy their ethnic and cultural identities in a peaceful and positive manner.”
Anyone with a knowledge of 20th-century European history will raise an eyebrow at the phrase “nothing inherently dangerous,” but Timothy doesn’t stop at the assertion of ethnic privilege. He denies that outsiders are racially or culturally inferior; they are simply from somewhere else. He justifies his ethnic exclusion based on his concept of society, which needs in principle to “grant rights, privileges and protections to their members, and refuse them to non-members.”
It is “axiomatic,” he argues, that a society that doesn’t do so would “cease to function.” Those who are denied rights aren’t inferior. They’re not to be blamed, either. Their exclusion is incidental to any feature they have; it’s merely necessary to give us a functioning society.
Timothy’s axiom is simply false. Ethnic diversity has not torn Canada, Australia, or New Zealand apart. And in the United States and Europe, it is primarily people arguing against diversity and equality who are the main source of interethnic tensions and societal dysfunction. A grim reminder reminder came in February when a middle-aged German man murdered several people of Middle Eastern descent in Hanau, near Frankfurt.
Timothy has taken himself on a dark journey, familiar to observers of other societies who feel under siege—from a valid concern for the white working class, ignored and patronized by the political elite, to criticizing liberals for opposing superstition and prejudice, to attacking the concept of universal human rights, to supporting ethnic cultural privilege and arriving at the position that others must be excluded—not for anything they are, or have done, or might do, but simply in order to sustain his own society.
His England is one that can only survive by making scapegoats of the world. A nation remade in that image doesn’t deserve to.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-27--U.S. Surpasses China With Most Coronavirus Infections in World

U.S. Surpasses China With Most Coronavirus Infections in World Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The United States now has the most coronavirus infections worldwide , Benny Gantz is elected speaker of Israel ’ s Knesset in a surprise move , and the U.S. Justice Department indicts Nicolás Maduro on drug charges .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday , please sign up here .
The United States can now claim the unwelcome title as the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic .
It is the first country to overtake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the outbreak began .
Just under 15,000 new infections were reported yesterday , the majority in the state of New York .
Italy , which has suffered the highest death toll of the pandemic and recorded over 6,000 cases yesterday , is set to overtake China ’ s infection rate by the end of today .
Speaking at a White House briefing , U.S. President Donald Trump expressed doubt that China was being forthcoming with its infection data , “ you don ’ t know what the numbers are in China.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans back to work and for normal economic life to resume , “ They have to go back to work , our country has to go back , our country is based on that and I think it ’ s going to happen pretty quickly , ” he said .
Record unemployment claims .
It was a day of grim records for the world ’ s largest economy , as the number of unemployment claims exploded to a record high of 3.3 million .
The previous record was set in 1982 , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of Americans out of work may well be higher , as many U.S. states do not allow the self-employed and so-called gig workers to file claims .
How bad is the U.S. epidemic likely to get ?
A survey of 18 epidemiologists by Thomas McAndrew at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst provides some sober reading .
In the survey , experts say COVID-19 will cause approximately 195,000 deaths in the United States and predict that a “ second wave ” of the virus is likely to occur between August and December of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General Willam P. Barr announced a multi-count indictment against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and 14 other Venezuelan officials for alleged “ narco-terrorism , corruption , drug trafficking ” as well as gun crimes .
The indictment alleges Maduro was himself responsible for negotiating cocaine deals as part of a government-run drug cartel and for collaborating with the rebel group FARC in Colombia to traffic cocaine into the United States .
“ We estimate that somewhere between 200 and 250 metric tons of cocaine are shipped out of Venezuela by these routes , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tons equate to 30 million lethal doses.
” Cocaine is the fourth most lethal drug in the United States—prescription opioids , heroin , and synthetic opioids all have higher mortality rates .
Chris White , a professor at Marshall University and author of The War on Drugs in the Americas , told Foreign Policy that this kind of drug trafficking by governments has been common in the history of the region , citing cases in Mexico , Cuba , and Jamaica .
“ It gets to the point where it ’ s impossible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your country , and so the government ends up being involved so they can get a cut of it—in this case a cut of the profits out of Colombia , ” he said .
Gantz elected Knesset speaker .
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has been elected speaker of the Israeli parliament with the support of right-wing parties in a shock move that signals that an emergency coalition deal with Benjamin Netanyahu ’ s Likud party is imminent .
While Gantz ’ s supporters on the left expressed disbelief and several of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Blue and White party , right-wing Defense Minister Naftali Bennett congratulated the two leaders on Twitter for reaching an agreement , although no formal announcement has been made .
Netanyahu had announced earlier in the week that he had agreed a deal with Gantz that would have the Blue and White leader take over as prime minister in 18 months .
Gantz ’ s fellow Blue and White leaders , Yair Lapid and Moshe Yaalon , denounced the move and accused Gantz of betraying voters , having “ surrendered ” to Netanyahu , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of “ extremists and extortionists.
” More Iran sanctions .
The United States has imposed more sanctions on Iran for the third time in the past two weeks .
This round targets five companies and 15 individuals over their support of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and related militias .
Following the sanctions , Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted , “ Does the US want a ‘ forever pandemic ’ ?
Moral imperative to stop observing the bully ’ s sanctions.
” Japan cases surge .
Japan has taken new measures to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases tripled in Tokyo in the last four days .
Japan has yet to call for a state of emergency , but has banned entry from 21 European countries and Iran , as well as setting up a crisis task force .
Japan now has 1,399 confirmed coronavirus cases .
Brexit talks .
Negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom are in limbo as the coronavirus has upended schedules and led to the quarantine of top negotiators on both sides .
The clock is ticking toward a July 1 deadline , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the transition period by one or two years .
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pushed for the U.K. to leave the customs union and EU single market by the end of the year .
Mali ’ s opposition .
The Malian opposition leader Soumaila Cissé has gone missing while campaigning in an area of the country known to be a hotspot for jihadist attacks .
Eleven members of his delegation are also missing .
A member of Cissé ’ s party believes that the group was kidnapped , although there are no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections in Mali are due to take place this Sunday .
Northern border tensions .
Canada has pushed back on a U.S. proposal to send troops to the border between the two countries .
A U.S. official said the military presence would allow increased communications and monitoring abilities for border agents .
Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said the proposal was an “ entirely unnecessary step which we would view as damaging to our relationship… The public health situation does not require such action.
” In the Belgian town of Baarle-Hertog , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Baarle-Nassau , conflicting lockdown rules between the two countries has put residents in a tough situation .
The town ’ s streets straddle the border between the countries to the extent that Dutch shops have remained open while Belgian shops have closed because Belgium has enacted strict rules that only allow citizens to visit grocery stores and pharmacies .
“ I live just 50 meters away , I walk by , but I can not go into any of these shops because I am Belgian , ” Frans De Bont , mayor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
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Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States now has the most coronavirus infections worldwide , Benny Gantz is elected speaker of Israel's Knesset in a surprise move, and the U.S. Justice Department indicts Nicolás Maduro on drug charges.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States now has the most coronavirus infections worldwide, Benny Gantz is elected speaker of Israel’s Knesset in a surprise move, and the U.S. Justice Department indicts Nicolás Maduro on drug charges.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
U.S. Now the Global Epicenter of Coronavirus Pandemic
The United States can now claim the unwelcome title as the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic. It is the first country to overtake China in the total number of infections since the outbreak began. Just under 15,000 new infections were reported yesterday, the majority in the state of New York. Italy, which has suffered the highest death toll of the pandemic and recorded over 6,000 cases yesterday, is set to overtake China’s infection rate by the end of today.
Speaking at a White House briefing, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed doubt that China was being forthcoming with its infection data, “you don’t know what the numbers are in China.”
Trump again restated his goal to get Americans back to work and for normal economic life to resume, “They have to go back to work, our country has to go back, our country is based on that and I think it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” he said.
Record unemployment claims. It was a day of grim records for the world’s largest economy, as the number of unemployment claims exploded to a record high of 3.3 million. The previous record was set in 1982, when 695,000 people filed unemployment claims. The number of Americans out of work may well be higher, as many U.S. states do not allow the self-employed and so-called gig workers to file claims.
How bad is the U.S. epidemic likely to get? A survey of 18 epidemiologists by Thomas McAndrew at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst provides some sober reading. In the survey, experts say COVID-19 will cause approximately 195,000 deaths in the United States and predict that a “second wave” of the virus is likely to occur between August and December of this year.
What We’re Following Today
Maduro indicted. U.S. Attorney General Willam P. Barr announced a multi-count indictment against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and 14 other Venezuelan officials for alleged “narco-terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking” as well as gun crimes. The indictment alleges Maduro was himself responsible for negotiating cocaine deals as part of a government-run drug cartel and for collaborating with the rebel group FARC in Colombia to traffic cocaine into the United States.
“We estimate that somewhere between 200 and 250 metric tons of cocaine are shipped out of Venezuela by these routes,” Barr said. “Those 250 metric tons equate to 30 million lethal doses.” Cocaine is the fourth most lethal drug in the United States—prescription opioids, heroin, and synthetic opioids all have higher mortality rates.
Chris White, a professor at Marshall University and author of The War on Drugs in the Americas, told Foreign Policy that this kind of drug trafficking by governments has been common in the history of the region, citing cases in Mexico, Cuba, and Jamaica. “It gets to the point where it’s impossible to stop the flow of drugs through your country, and so the government ends up being involved so they can get a cut of it—in this case a cut of the profits out of Colombia,” he said.
Gantz elected Knesset speaker. Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has been elected speaker of the Israeli parliament with the support of right-wing parties in a shock move that signals that an emergency coalition deal with Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is imminent. While Gantz’s supporters on the left expressed disbelief and several of his colleagues moved to secede from the Blue and White party, right-wing Defense Minister Naftali Bennett congratulated the two leaders on Twitter for reaching an agreement, although no formal announcement has been made.
Netanyahu had announced earlier in the week that he had agreed a deal with Gantz that would have the Blue and White leader take over as prime minister in 18 months. Gantz’s fellow Blue and White leaders, Yair Lapid and Moshe Yaalon, denounced the move and accused Gantz of betraying voters, having “surrendered” to Netanyahu, and “crawling” into a coalition of “extremists and extortionists.”
More Iran sanctions. The United States has imposed more sanctions on Iran for the third time in the past two weeks. This round targets five companies and 15 individuals over their support of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and related militias. Following the sanctions, Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted, “Does the US want a ‘forever pandemic’? Moral imperative to stop observing the bully’s sanctions.”
Japan cases surge. Japan has taken new measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus after cases tripled in Tokyo in the last four days. Japan has yet to call for a state of emergency, but has banned entry from 21 European countries and Iran, as well as setting up a crisis task force. Japan now has 1,399 confirmed coronavirus cases.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-27--In Germany, Coronavirus Is No Longer a Distant Threat

In Germany , Coronavirus Is No Longer a Distant Threat “ Corona , corona , corona .
It is all I hear .
Keep your faith in Jesus and all will be fine !
” Thus proclaimed the ecstatic man to my left , hands triumphantly raised , conspicuously unwashed , perilously close to my face .
My classmates behind him looked on in disbelief .
The woman to my other side , her hands fastidiously sanitized , like the rest of ours , cowered away in terror .
“ Scheiße , ” she whispered to me .
“ In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jesus waste his time saving him ?
” This was two weeks ago .
The next day , March 13 , we were sent home mid-class .
We are all recent immigrants , thrown together in a German language and culture “ integration ” course .
We run the spectrum from professional expatriates to refugees .
As the lockdowns spread across China , people here kept asking me the same question : “ Aren ’ t you glad you left Beijing ?
” Our course at the Volkshochschule ( an adult education center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been summarily called off till March 29 .
The date was completely arbitrary ; it has since been extended to April 19 .
Outside , we found that the building had emptied .
My phone pinged .
My son and wife were on their way home from his school as well after orders came down to shut all schools by March 17 .
The education authorities in Baden-Württemberg in southern Germany had finally acted—and not a minute too soon .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the world . ]
I knew it was only a matter of time .
I had spent much of late January and the whole of February glued to WeChat—a messaging and social media app that is ubiquitous in China .
My family lived in Beijing until July 2019 , prior to our move to Germany .
My own connection to the place is still alive and kicking , and I was desperate for news of the new illness that was sweeping over it .
This past winter in Beijing was full of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frozen city isn ’ t used to .
What should have been fodder for social-media celebration was reduced to a cataloging of pristine snowmen in forlorn compounds and ice dripping off eaves in empty streets .
The photos were all lovely , but the paucity of people in that most crowded of cities stopped me dead , every time .
I knew what it took to empty those avenues .
That distant virus—so far away in a country I wasn ’ t in and couldn ’ t visit , anymore—was so immediate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : It showed itself in the absences of people and things I had taken for granted .
There are still people running around who think this disease is something that happens to other people .
As the lockdowns spread across that country and the spaces I ’ d known in my former life were shuttered , people who weren ’ t in China kept asking me the same question : “ Aren ’ t you glad you left Beijing ?
” Beyond its insensitivity , beyond the willful ignorance of the diminished existence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ locked down , ” what struck me about that question were two key assumptions .
First , that COVID-19 was a Chinese problem .
And second , that the virus would behave itself and stay there .
This will get worse before it gets better , I told a friend in mid-February .
He is an Indian living in Singapore who was going to Bangkok for work .
He would avoid Chinatown , he replied .
“ Anyway , the Chinese tourists don ’ t come to the places we go .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for that .
Earlier this week , our native country , India , placed 1.3 billion people under lockdown .
Yet there are still people running around who think this disease is something that happens to other people .
“ There are young men and boys playing football in the woods !
” “ They showed me the finger .
If I see them again , I ’ m calling the police.
” My neighbor was indignant .
She is older than I am , and her parents are still alive and active @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places everyone at risk .
While we aren ’ t yet in a full lockdown in our corner of Baden-Württemberg , the advisories are explicit .
And we know what the lockdown is doing in Italy , in France , in Spain .
Why would anyone in their right minds want an advisory to become an imperative ?
This movie just played in China , and it ’ s currently screening in the rest of Europe .
Do you want us all confined to our homes ?
In the Indian capital , New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the government to stay home from March 19 , on account of his age .
On March 25 , the rest of the country received the same orders .
In many ways , India has been incredibly proactive , at least in theory .
It started screening flights , monitoring arrivals , tracing contacts , and issuing travel restrictions before many other countries did .
But in other , more baffling ways , it has lagged behind .
One issue is the government ’ s persistent refusal to test the population .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , went the government line before the lockdown , if you hadn ’ t had contact with someone who had been abroad , then you were not eligible for testing .
Which was to willfully ignore the very real possibility that the killer had bypassed passport control and temperature checks and was already inside .
As always , public health took a back seat to political and religious priorities .
Take Ram Navami Mela , a religious fair that was set to kick off on March 25 in Ayodhya in eastern Uttar Pradesh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ religious site that has polarized India and its politics for decades .
The state government was proudly expecting hundreds of thousands of visitors , citizens who were not told to make other plans until March 21 , when the fair was finally called off .
Apparently , social distancing was still subservient to the religious-political needs of the ruling party , the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party .
“ If there was a way to fence those pious pilgrims in and remove them from society , I ’ d be happy , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the herd , in other words .
But the herd isn ’ t always that far removed—either geographically or demographically .
Not in India .
I was rubbing shoulders with hundreds of people on Feb. 27 in the bar of the Delhi Gymkhana , one of New Delhi ’ s oldest social institutions .
My fellow revelers were all animatedly chattering about the coronavirus and its effects on the city .
Some schools had already closed , while others were on the brink .
This will affect every aspect of our lives , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the normally bustling streets of our little town are empty .
We aren ’ t in lockdown yet .
In part this is due to a society that is , apart from some rebellious teenage soccer players , falling in line with the advice coming down from the experts .
People stopped shaking hands weeks ago .
Now , we cross the streets to avoid each other , and lines on the floor in grocery stores indicate safe spacing .
The first wave of panic buying seems to have subsided , though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On the credit side , fruits and vegetables are plentiful .
As the number of coronavirus-related deaths accelerate in our neighboring countries—who knew watching graphs stiffening on television could be quite so morbidly gripping—Germany ’ s own mortality rate remains stubbornly , blessedly limp .
Opinions as to why vary .
Credit the well-resourced public health system , say the positive-minded .
The pessimists point to a lag in testing , especially post-mortem .
China-based expatriates who had fled are now scrambling to get back into that country , before it completely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the rest of the world .
Closer to home , my son ’ s East Asian schoolmates have reported being yelled at while they played in the street .
Those children weren ’ t alone ; there were adults present , pushing their little group across the limit set for public congregation ( now down to two people at a time ) .
They were breaking the rules , and Germany isn ’ t cool with that at the best of times .
But it serves to remind us all that even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s main avenues of infection came from Europe , rather than Asia , the idea of this being a Chinese problem—a modern-day yellow peril—lives on .
China now seems to have come to grips with its crisis , at least for now .
There have been few new cases and coronavirus-related deaths in Wuhan in recent days .
In another superb indicator of how the tables have turned—China-based expatriates who had fled are now scrambling to get back into that country , before it completely closes its own doors to prevent reinfection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m seeing people in the streets on my WeChat timeline again .
Which is more than I can say when I look out the window here in Germany .
And nobody ’ s asking me if I ’ m glad I left Beijing anymore .

STUTTGART, Germany—
“Corona, corona, corona. It is all I hear. Keep your faith in Jesus and all will be fine!”
Thus proclaimed the ecstatic man to my left, hands triumphantly raised, conspicuously unwashed, perilously close to my face. My classmates behind him looked on in disbelief. The woman to my other side, her hands fastidiously sanitized, like the rest of ours, cowered away in terror.
“Scheiße,” she whispered to me. “In a crisis like this, why would Jesus waste his time saving him?”
This was two weeks ago. The next day, March 13, we were sent home mid-class. We are all recent immigrants, thrown together in a German language and culture “integration” course. We run the spectrum from professional expatriates to refugees.
As the lockdowns spread across China, people here kept asking me the same question: “Aren’t you glad you left Beijing?”
Our course at the Volkshochschule (an adult education center) in our town near Stuttgart had been summarily called off till March 29. The date was completely arbitrary; it has since been extended to April 19. Outside, we found that the building had emptied. My phone pinged. My son and wife were on their way home from his school as well after orders came down to shut all schools by March 17.
The education authorities in Baden-Württemberg in southern Germany had finally acted—and not a minute too soon.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
I knew it was only a matter of time. I had spent much of late January and the whole of February glued to WeChat—a messaging and social media app that is ubiquitous in China. My family lived in Beijing until July 2019, prior to our move to Germany. My own connection to the place is still alive and kicking, and I was desperate for news of the new illness that was sweeping over it.
This past winter in Beijing was full of snowstorms, of a caliber that aridly frozen city isn’t used to. What should have been fodder for social-media celebration was reduced to a cataloging of pristine snowmen in forlorn compounds and ice dripping off eaves in empty streets.
The photos were all lovely, but the paucity of people in that most crowded of cities stopped me dead, every time. I knew what it took to empty those avenues. That distant virus—so far away in a country I wasn’t in and couldn’t visit, anymore—was so immediate in the timelines of my increasingly desperate friends: It showed itself in the absences of people and things I had taken for granted.
There are still people running around who think this disease is something that happens to other people.
As the lockdowns spread across that country and the spaces I’d known in my former life were shuttered, people who weren’t in China kept asking me the same question: “Aren’t you glad you left Beijing?”
Beyond its insensitivity, beyond the willful ignorance of the diminished existence of my friends whose lives were “locked down,” what struck me about that question were two key assumptions. First, that COVID-19 was a Chinese problem. And second, that the virus would behave itself and stay there.
This will get worse before it gets better, I told a friend in mid-February. He is an Indian living in Singapore who was going to Bangkok for work. He would avoid Chinatown, he replied. “Anyway, the Chinese tourists don’t come to the places we go. I’ll be fine.”
So much for that. Earlier this week, our native country, India, placed 1.3 billion people under lockdown. Yet there are still people running around who think this disease is something that happens to other people.
“There are young men and boys playing football in the woods!”
“What?”
“Ja! I told them to stop.”
“What did they say?”
“They showed me the finger. If I see them again, I’m calling the police.”
My neighbor was indignant. She is older than I am, and her parents are still alive and active. The casual idiocy of other people places everyone at risk. While we aren’t yet in a full lockdown in our corner of Baden-Württemberg, the advisories are explicit. And we know what the lockdown is doing in Italy, in France, in Spain. Why would anyone in their right minds want an advisory to become an imperative?
This movie just played in China, and it’s currently screening in the rest of Europe. Do you want us all confined to our homes?
In the Indian capital, New Delhi, my own father was told by the government to stay home from March 19, on account of his age. On March 25, the rest of the country received the same orders.
In many ways, India has been incredibly proactive, at least in theory. It started screening flights, monitoring arrivals, tracing contacts, and issuing travel restrictions before many other countries did. But in other, more baffling ways, it has lagged behind.
One issue is the government’s persistent refusal to test the population. If you hadn’t been abroad, went the government line before the lockdown, if you hadn’t had contact with someone who had been abroad, then you were not eligible for testing. Which was to willfully ignore the very real possibility that the killer had bypassed passport control and temperature checks and was already inside.
As always, public health took a back seat to political and religious priorities. Take Ram Navami Mela, a religious fair that was set to kick off on March 25 in Ayodhya in eastern Uttar Pradesh, site of a dispute over a religious site that has polarized India and its politics for decades.
The state government was proudly expecting hundreds of thousands of visitors, citizens who were not told to make other plans until March 21, when the fair was finally called off. Apparently, social distancing was still subservient to the religious-political needs of the ruling party, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party.
“If there was a way to fence those pious pilgrims in and remove them from society, I’d be happy,” said one adamantly atheist friend. Cull the herd, in other words.
But the herd isn’t always that far removed—either geographically or demographically. Not in India. I was rubbing shoulders with hundreds of people on Feb. 27 in the bar of the Delhi Gymkhana, one of New Delhi’s oldest social institutions. My fellow revelers were all animatedly chattering about the coronavirus and its effects on the city. Some schools had already closed, while others were on the brink. This will affect every aspect of our lives, was the consensus.
That bar finally closed on March 21.
Here in Germany, the normally bustling streets of our little town are empty. We aren’t in lockdown yet. In part this is due to a society that is, apart from some rebellious teenage soccer players, falling in line with the advice coming down from the experts.
People stopped shaking hands weeks ago. Now, we cross the streets to avoid each other, and lines on the floor in grocery stores indicate safe spacing. The first wave of panic buying seems to have subsided, though toilet paper is still in short supply. On the credit side, fruits and vegetables are plentiful.
As the number of coronavirus-related deaths accelerate in our neighboring countries—who knew watching graphs stiffening on television could be quite so morbidly gripping—Germany’s own mortality rate remains stubbornly, blessedly limp. Opinions as to why vary. Credit the well-resourced public health system, say the positive-minded. The pessimists point to a lag in testing, especially post-mortem.
China-based expatriates who had fled are now scrambling to get back into that country, before it completely closes its own doors to prevent reinfection from the rest of the world.
Closer to home, my son’s East Asian schoolmates have reported being yelled at while they played in the street. Those children weren’t alone; there were adults present, pushing their little group across the limit set for public congregation (now down to two people at a time).
They were breaking the rules, and Germany isn’t cool with that at the best of times. But it serves to remind us all that even in the face of reports that Germany’s main avenues of infection came from Europe, rather than Asia, the idea of this being a Chinese problem—a modern-day yellow peril—lives on.
China now seems to have come to grips with its crisis, at least for now. There have been few new cases and coronavirus-related deaths in Wuhan in recent days. In another superb indicator of how the tables have turned—China-based expatriates who had fled are now scrambling to get back into that country, before it completely closes its own doors to prevent reinfection from the rest of the world.
I’m seeing people in the streets on my WeChat timeline again. Which is more than I can say when I look out the window here in Germany.
And nobody’s asking me if I’m glad I left Beijing anymore.