foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--Kosovar and Serbian Leaders Seek Resolution During Talks at the White House

Kosovar and Serbian Leaders Seek Resolution During Talks at the White House Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Kosovar and Serbian leaders meet in Washington for talks , Russia prepares for military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean , and French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara .
We ’ re taking a break Monday for Labor Day , but we ’ ll be back on Tuesday .
As always , we welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti will meet at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of talks aimed at resolving bilateral tensions .
The meeting will be hosted by U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O ’ Brien and Richard Grenell , the U.S. special envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations .
It is unclear if President Donald Trump will participate .
On Thursday , Grenell tweeted that “ the people of Kosovo and Serbia deserve economic normalization and the chance to create a vibrant economy , ” which comports with the White House ’ s stated intention of “ flipping the script ” of the dialogue and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vucic will also reportedly seek to build an economic relationship with Kosovo during the meeting .
Recognition is paramount .
But Kosovo has different priorities .
The breakaway republic is not recognized diplomatically by Serbia , from whom it declared independence in 2008 after fighting a brutal war for independence in the late 1990s .
In a Q & A with Foreign Policy on the eve of the current round of talks , Hoti said that “ the main issue remains a final settlement , a peace agreement between the two countries that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue between the two countries , which is mutual recognition.
” Withstanding the pressure .
The European Union , which has so far led talks between the two sides , insists that mutual recognition is a necessary precondition for both countries to enter the bloc , but Vucic has resisted calls for recognition of Kosovo .
In a Q & A with Foreign Policy in March , he warned that “ the vast majority of people in Serbia … would prefer a frozen conflict [ with Kosovo ] to any single solution.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is hoping the talks will help boost his foreign-policy credentials in the months leading up the November presidential election .
In recent weeks , the administration has also brokered a historic peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and successfully pressured the Afghan government to release the last Taliban prisoners needed to begin talks with the group .
Russia turns up the heat in the eastern Mediterranean .
Turkey announced late Wednesday evening that Russian forces will conduct live-fire exercises in the eastern Mediterranean amid a deepening crisis with Greece .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russian exercises would be “ monitored by all the countries in the region , as well as our NATO allies and European Union partners.
” It is unclear why Turkey announced the exercises on Russia ’ s behalf , but the two countries have sought to strengthen their ties in recent years , so it could be a sign that Russia is prepared to flex its military muscle in support of Turkey ’ s regional ambitions .
U.S. keeps pressure on Belarus .
Lithuania announced that U.S. troops will be moved from Poland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ military exercises in the country amid growing tensions between the Baltic state and Belarus .
Although it stressed that the exercises are “ defensive in nature and not directed against any neighbor , including Belarus , ” they are now due to start earlier and last longer than they were originally planned .
Lithuania is currently hosting Belarus ’ s high-profile opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya , and it recently joined Latvia and Estonia in imposing sanctions on Belarus .
For its part , Belarus has accused NATO of amassing a troop presence along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those claims .
Sea change in Montenegro .
Longtime Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic said he is prepared to go into opposition for the first time since the end of the Cold War after his pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists ( DPS ) and its traditional allies fell just short of a majority in last weekend ’ s parliamentary elections .
Three opposition alliances—some of which contain strong pro-Serbian and pro-Russian elements—rode a wave of public discontent led by the Serbian Orthodox Church to a strong performance at the polls , and have agreed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
During the campaign , Djukanovic—who has spearheaded the country ’ s accession to NATO and its attempt to gain entry into the European Union—framed the election as a battle between his pro-Western party and the Russia-aligned theocratic opposition .
But on Monday , opposition leaders announced that they would continue to pursue Montenegro ’ s admission to the European Union .
Tribunal on Uighur cultural genocide .
A prominent U.K. human rights lawyer will convene an independent tribunal in London to investigate allegations that the Chinese government ’ s activities against Xinjiang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ genocide .
The tribunal lacks government backing , but the lawyer , Geoffrey Nice , previously worked for the International Criminal Court and led the prosecution of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic .
He was asked by the World Uighur Congress to investigate “ ongoing atrocities and possible genocide.
” The tribunal is expected to convene next year .
As Azeem Ibrahim wrote for Foreign Policy in December 2019 , the evidence pointing to cultural genocide is now overwhelming , and the international community has “ an unambiguous moral duty to intervene.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coast President Alassane Ouattara will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron today as the country lurches toward a constitutional crisis in the lead-up to its October presidential election .
Ouattara is seeking a third term as president , which critics say is a blatant violation of the two-term limit enshrined in the constitution .
His supporters have dismissed these accusations , saying that the term limit does not apply to elected officials who served before the current constitution ’ s ratification in 2016 .
Ouattara took over the presidency in 2010 .
Macron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaders in France ’ s former colonies to hand power to the younger generation , and he praised Ouattara in March when he initially declared he would not run .
But the sudden death of his chosen successor in July thrust him back into the conversation , sparking protests against his rule and forcing Macron to intervene .
At a campaign rally in North Carolina , Trump urged his supporters to vote twice—once by mail and once in person—in the upcoming presidential election .
Trump has repeatedly questioned the validity of mail-in voting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attempt to discredit the election results .
Voting twice is illegal in the United States , but White House officials denied that Trump was actually urging his supporters to commit voter fraud .
But when Attorney General William Barr was asked about Trump ’ s remarks , he balked at the question , repeatedly claiming that he didn ’ t know what the particular laws were for voting twice in any given state .
Voting twice in a single election is illegal across the United States under federal law .
For more from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Kosovar and Serbian leaders meet in Washington for talks, Russia prepares for military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean , and French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Kosovar and Serbian leaders meet in Washington for talks, Russia prepares for military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, and French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara.
We’re taking a break Monday for Labor Day, but we’ll be back on Tuesday. As always, we welcome your feedback at morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.
Talks Represent a Step Forward, but There Is Little Prospect for a Resolution
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti will meet at the White House today for the second day of talks aimed at resolving bilateral tensions. The meeting will be hosted by U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien and Richard Grenell, the U.S. special envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations. It is unclear if President Donald Trump will participate.
On Thursday, Grenell tweeted that “the people of Kosovo and Serbia deserve economic normalization and the chance to create a vibrant economy,” which comports with the White House’s stated intention of “flipping the script” of the dialogue and prioritizing economic issues over political ones. Vucic will also reportedly seek to build an economic relationship with Kosovo during the meeting.
Recognition is paramount. But Kosovo has different priorities. The breakaway republic is not recognized diplomatically by Serbia, from whom it declared independence in 2008 after fighting a brutal war for independence in the late 1990s. In a Q&A with Foreign Policy on the eve of the current round of talks, Hoti said that “the main issue remains a final settlement, a peace agreement between the two countries that will solve once and forever the open issue between the two countries, which is mutual recognition.”
Withstanding the pressure. The European Union, which has so far led talks between the two sides, insists that mutual recognition is a necessary precondition for both countries to enter the bloc, but Vucic has resisted calls for recognition of Kosovo. In a Q&A with Foreign Policy in March, he warned that “the vast majority of people in Serbia … would prefer a frozen conflict [with Kosovo] to any single solution.”
Electioneering. Some observers believe that Trump is hoping the talks will help boost his foreign-policy credentials in the months leading up the November presidential election. In recent weeks, the administration has also brokered a historic peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and successfully pressured the Afghan government to release the last Taliban prisoners needed to begin talks with the group.
What We’re Following Today
Russia turns up the heat in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey announced late Wednesday evening that Russian forces will conduct live-fire exercises in the eastern Mediterranean amid a deepening crisis with Greece. Greek government spokesman Stelios Petsas said the Russian exercises would be “monitored by all the countries in the region, as well as our NATO allies and European Union partners.”
It is unclear why Turkey announced the exercises on Russia’s behalf, but the two countries have sought to strengthen their ties in recent years, so it could be a sign that Russia is prepared to flex its military muscle in support of Turkey’s regional ambitions.
U.S. keeps pressure on Belarus. Lithuania announced that U.S. troops will be moved from Poland to Lithuania to take part in two-month-long military exercises in the country amid growing tensions between the Baltic state and Belarus. Although it stressed that the exercises are “defensive in nature and not directed against any neighbor, including Belarus,” they are now due to start earlier and last longer than they were originally planned.
Lithuania is currently hosting Belarus’s high-profile opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and it recently joined Latvia and Estonia in imposing sanctions on Belarus. For its part, Belarus has accused NATO of amassing a troop presence along its western border, though NATO denies those claims.
Sea change in Montenegro. Longtime Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic said he is prepared to go into opposition for the first time since the end of the Cold War after his pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its traditional allies fell just short of a majority in last weekend’s parliamentary elections. Three opposition alliances—some of which contain strong pro-Serbian and pro-Russian elements—rode a wave of public discontent led by the Serbian Orthodox Church to a strong performance at the polls, and have agreed to share power in a new government.
During the campaign, Djukanovic—who has spearheaded the country’s accession to NATO and its attempt to gain entry into the European Union—framed the election as a battle between his pro-Western party and the Russia-aligned theocratic opposition. But on Monday, opposition leaders announced that they would continue to pursue Montenegro’s admission to the European Union.
Keep an Eye On
Tribunal on Uighur cultural genocide. A prominent U.K. human rights lawyer will convene an independent tribunal in London to investigate allegations that the Chinese government’s activities against Xinjiang province’s Uighur community constitute cultural genocide. The tribunal lacks government backing, but the lawyer, Geoffrey Nice, previously worked for the International Criminal Court and led the prosecution of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. He was asked by the World Uighur Congress to investigate “ongoing atrocities and possible genocide.” The tribunal is expected to convene next year.
As Azeem Ibrahim wrote for Foreign Policy in December 2019, the evidence pointing to cultural genocide is now overwhelming, and the international community has “an unambiguous moral duty to intervene.”
Macron set to meet Ouattara. Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron today as the country lurches toward a constitutional crisis in the lead-up to its October presidential election. Ouattara is seeking a third term as president, which critics say is a blatant violation of the two-term limit enshrined in the constitution. His supporters have dismissed these accusations, saying that the term limit does not apply to elected officials who served before the current constitution’s ratification in 2016. Ouattara took over the presidency in 2010.
Macron has urged the older generation of African leaders in France’s former colonies to hand power to the younger generation, and he praised Ouattara in March when he initially declared he would not run. But the sudden death of his chosen successor in July thrust him back into the conversation, sparking protests against his rule and forcing Macron to intervene.
Odds and Ends
At a campaign rally in North Carolina, Trump urged his supporters to vote twice—once by mail and once in person—in the upcoming presidential election. Trump has repeatedly questioned the validity of mail-in voting, which is widely seen as an attempt to discredit the election results.
Voting twice is illegal in the United States, but White House officials denied that Trump was actually urging his supporters to commit voter fraud. But when Attorney General William Barr was asked about Trump’s remarks, he balked at the question, repeatedly claiming that he didn’t know what the particular laws were for voting twice in any given state. Voting twice in a single election is illegal across the United States under federal law.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--UAE Deal Boosts Israeli Oil Pipeline Secretly Built With Iran

A desert oil pipeline that Israel once operated as a secret joint venture with Iran could be a major beneficiary from the Trump-brokered peace deal with the United Arab Emirates .
With the UAE formally scrapping the eight-decade Arab boycott of Israel—and other oil-rich Gulf neighbors likely to follow suit—the Jewish state is on the cusp of playing a much bigger role in the region ’ s energy trade , petroleum politics , and Big Oil investments .
It starts with an under-used but highly strategic pipeline .
Stepping cautiously out of the shadows , the Israeli managers of Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their 158-mile conduit from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea provides both a cheaper alternative to Egypt ’ s Suez Canal and an option to connect to the Arab pipeline grid that transports oil and gas not just to the region , but to the seaports that supply the world .
“ It opens a lot of doors and opportunities , ” the pipeline company ’ s CEO , Izik Levi , told Foreign Policy .
He reckons that the pipeline , which connects Israel ’ s southern port of Eilat with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mediterranean coast , could nip off a significant share of the oil shipments now flowing through the nearby Suez Canal .
While much of the hoopla over the UAE-Israel pact has focused on other sectors such as technology , health care , education , and tourism , the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline brings the deal into the realm of petroleum , the beating heart of the Persian Gulf economy .
Now that the Emiratis have broken the ice , opportunities for Arab-Israeli energy deals are broad and lucrative , ranging from investment in the Israeli @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carrying natural gas or connecting it to pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East .
“ If they ’ re doing partnerships with Israelis , there ’ s tremendous potential for all kinds of business , ” said Marc Sievers , a former U.S. ambassador to Oman , where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a groundbreaking visit two years ago .
The Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline brings the UAE deal into the realm of petroleum , the beating heart of the Persian Gulf economy .
Just over 60 years ago when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a massive national construction project aimed at guaranteeing Israel ’ s and Europe ’ s energy supplies in the wake of the 1956 Suez crisis .
Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser had restricted shipping through the canal , triggering an invasion by Israeli , British , and French forces .
Subsequent efforts by Egypt to block the 120-mile artificial waterway also played a role in Israeli-Arab wars in 1967 and 1973 .
Most of the oil flowing through the pipeline came from Iran , which had close but discreet relations with Israel for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In 1968 , the Israeli and Iranian governments registered what was then called the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Co. as a 50-50 joint venture to manage the export of Iranian crude through Israeli territory and onward by tanker to Europe .
Much of the early oil flow appears to have been brokered by billionaire commodities trader Marc Rich , who was later indicted in the United States for continuing to trade with Iran after the 1979 Islamic revolution , when it was declared an enemy state .
Rich was pardoned in 2001 by former U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was moved in part by appeals from Israeli leaders and intelligence chiefs .
The rogue trader ’ s backers , including former Israeli Prime Ministers Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak , said he had repeatedly rescued the Jewish state from efforts to destroy it .
Rich , who was never convicted , died in 2013 .
A Swiss court ordered Israel in 2015 to pay Iran compensation of about $ 1.1 billion as a share of profits from the joint ownership of the pipeline since the two enemies broke off relations in 1979 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up .
While the company ’ s main 42-inch pipeline was built to transport Iranian oil north to the Mediterranean , it now does most of its business in reverse .
It can pump oil unloaded in Ashkelon from ships sent by producers such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to tankers in the Gulf of Aqaba for transport to China , South Korea , or elsewhere in Asia .
Running parallel to the crude pipeline is a 16-inch tube carrying petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel .
The company also makes money from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The lengths to which its pipeline ’ s customers go to obscure their identities are legendary .
The pipeline ’ s advantage over the Suez is the ability of the terminals in Ashkelon and Eilat to accommodate the giant supertankers that dominate oil shipping today , but are too big to fit through the canal .
Known in oilspeak as VLCCs , or very large crude carriers , the ships can transport as much as 2 million barrels of petroleum .
The 150-year-old Suez Canal , on the other hand , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so-called Suezmax vessels , with just half the capacity of a VLCC .
Oil traders thus have to charter two ships through the canal for every one they send via Israel .
With one-way fees through the Suez reaching $ 300,000- $ 400,000 , Levi says the pipeline allows Israel to offer a significant discount .
The company ’ s business has always been one of Israel ’ s most closely guarded secrets .
Even today , EAPC releases no financial statements .
Levi says he can ’ t disclose the names of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the biggest companies in the world.
” What little information that is publicly known only came to light as the result of legal battles following a 2014 rupture in the pipeline that caused the worst environmental disaster in Israeli history , spilling more than 1.3 million gallons of crude oil into the Ein Evrona desert nature preserve .
If EAPC ’ s books are opaque , the lengths to which its customers go to obscure their identities through multiple registrations and other corporate cloaking techniques are legendary .
The boycott enforced by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their oil-producing neighbors meant that tankers acknowledging their docking in Israel would be barred from future loadings in the Persian Gulf , effectively destroying their business .
The details are highly confidential—but generally the ways ships can obscure their activities include turning off their transponders , repainting , reflagging , reregistering , and faking their docking records .
Levi , a retired captain in the Israeli navy , told Foreign Policy that the required secrecy made the pipeline route too expensive for most shipments .
“ Many ships that came to Eilat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operations in order that they would not be boycotted in one or another port .
If the ship fears it will be blacklisted and boycotted , that gets priced in .
All that costs me money so the price for transportation will go up.
” EAPC ’ s business model improves dramatically with the erosion of the Arab boycott .
“ If the concerns [ with secrecy ] go down significantly , the price will drop significantly , ” Levi said .
“ Then it becomes economically feasible and even more worthwhile.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a transshipment hub are removed , business could boom .
After the Israeli-UAE deal is formalized , other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are likely to follow , most likely Bahrain and Oman .
Saudi Arabia has indicated it won ’ t establish formal links until the Palestinian conflict is resolved , although its business connections with Israel are plentiful and growing .
Levi says his goal is for the pipeline to capture between 12 percent and 17 percent of the oil business that now uses the Suez .
Levi says his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ somewhere between 12 percent and 17 percent of the oil business that now uses the Suez .
Because of the canal ’ s limitations , much of the Gulf crude bound for Europe and North America gets pumped through Egypt ’ s Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline , in which Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold a stake .
Egypt ’ s pipeline , however , operates in only one direction , making it less useful than its Israeli competitor , which can also handle , for example , Russian or Azerbaijani oil heading to Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which will see business siphoned off and have less control over prices now that there is competition .
Even as it makes new friends in the Gulf , the Israeli company needs to be careful about biting too deeply into the revenue sources of Egypt , the first Arab state to make peace with Israel in 1979 , and one of the poorest .
“ I don ’ t think it will make the Egyptians happy , ” says Sievers , the former ambassador .
Israeli-Emirati cooperation in shipping is not entirely new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is Israel ’ s Zim Integrated Shipping Services , which has been docking at ports managed by Dubai shipping titan DP World for more than 20 years , and has invested in joint ventures with the Emirati company .
The relationship between Zim owner Idan Ofer and DP Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem is so strong that the Israeli billionaire lobbied the U.S. Congress on the Dubai company ’ s behalf in its unsuccessfully 2006 bid to buy terminal operations in the United States .
Even more possibilities arise from Israel ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deposits off its Mediterranean coast that can supply far more than Israel ’ s own needs .
Bringing in Gulf investors in addition to Israel ’ s current partners such as Chevron , and the possibility of connecting to the Middle East ’ s gas pipeline grid , would open yet another new horizon for Israel ’ s nascent energy industry .
As the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline emerges from its carefully nurtured obscurity , the UAE peace deal offers Israel a gateway into the high-stakes club of oil trading where hiding its flag was @ @ @ @ @ @ @

A desert oil pipeline that Israel once operated as a secret joint venture with Iran could be a major beneficiary from the Trump-brokered peace deal with the United Arab Emirates. With the UAE formally scrapping the eight-decade Arab boycott of Israel—and other oil-rich Gulf neighbors likely to follow suit—the Jewish state is on the cusp of playing a much bigger role in the region’s energy trade, petroleum politics, and Big Oil investments.
A desert oil pipeline that Israel once operated as a secret joint venture with Iran could be a major beneficiary from the Trump-brokered peace deal with the United Arab Emirates. With the UAE formally scrapping the eight-decade Arab boycott of Israel—and other oil-rich Gulf neighbors likely to follow suit—the Jewish state is on the cusp of playing a much bigger role in the region’s energy trade, petroleum politics, and Big Oil investments.
It starts with an under-used but highly strategic pipeline. Stepping cautiously out of the shadows, the Israeli managers of Europe Asia Pipeline Co. (EAPC) say their 158-mile conduit from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea provides both a cheaper alternative to Egypt’s Suez Canal and an option to connect to the Arab pipeline grid that transports oil and gas not just to the region, but to the seaports that supply the world. “It opens a lot of doors and opportunities,” the pipeline company’s CEO, Izik Levi, told Foreign Policy. He reckons that the pipeline, which connects Israel’s southern port of Eilat with a tanker terminal in Ashkelon on the Mediterranean coast, could nip off a significant share of the oil shipments now flowing through the nearby Suez Canal.
While much of the hoopla over the UAE-Israel pact has focused on other sectors such as technology, health care, education, and tourism, the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline brings the deal into the realm of petroleum, the beating heart of the Persian Gulf economy. Now that the Emiratis have broken the ice, opportunities for Arab-Israeli energy deals are broad and lucrative, ranging from investment in the Israeli pipeline itself, to adapting it for carrying natural gas or connecting it to pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East. “If they’re doing partnerships with Israelis, there’s tremendous potential for all kinds of business,” said Marc Sievers, a former U.S. ambassador to Oman, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a groundbreaking visit two years ago.
The Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline brings the UAE deal into the realm of petroleum, the beating heart of the Persian Gulf economy.
Just over 60 years ago when it was built, the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline was a massive national construction project aimed at guaranteeing Israel’s and Europe’s energy supplies in the wake of the 1956 Suez crisis. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser had restricted shipping through the canal, triggering an invasion by Israeli, British, and French forces. Subsequent efforts by Egypt to block the 120-mile artificial waterway also played a role in Israeli-Arab wars in 1967 and 1973.
Most of the oil flowing through the pipeline came from Iran, which had close but discreet relations with Israel for decades under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. In 1968, the Israeli and Iranian governments registered what was then called the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Co. as a 50-50 joint venture to manage the export of Iranian crude through Israeli territory and onward by tanker to Europe.
Much of the early oil flow appears to have been brokered by billionaire commodities trader Marc Rich, who was later indicted in the United States for continuing to trade with Iran after the 1979 Islamic revolution, when it was declared an enemy state. Rich was pardoned in 2001 by former U.S. President Bill Clinton, who said he was moved in part by appeals from Israeli leaders and intelligence chiefs. The rogue trader’s backers, including former Israeli Prime Ministers Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak, said he had repeatedly rescued the Jewish state from efforts to destroy it. Rich, who was never convicted, died in 2013.
A Swiss court ordered Israel in 2015 to pay Iran compensation of about $1.1 billion as a share of profits from the joint ownership of the pipeline since the two enemies broke off relations in 1979, but Israel has refused to pay up.
While the company’s main 42-inch pipeline was built to transport Iranian oil north to the Mediterranean, it now does most of its business in reverse. It can pump oil unloaded in Ashkelon from ships sent by producers such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to tankers in the Gulf of Aqaba for transport to China, South Korea, or elsewhere in Asia. Running parallel to the crude pipeline is a 16-inch tube carrying petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. The company also makes money from operating storage tanks at its shipping terminals.
The lengths to which its pipeline’s customers go to obscure their identities are legendary.
The pipeline’s advantage over the Suez is the ability of the terminals in Ashkelon and Eilat to accommodate the giant supertankers that dominate oil shipping today, but are too big to fit through the canal. Known in oilspeak as VLCCs, or very large crude carriers, the ships can transport as much as 2 million barrels of petroleum. The 150-year-old Suez Canal, on the other hand, is only deep and wide enough to handle so-called Suezmax vessels, with just half the capacity of a VLCC. Oil traders thus have to charter two ships through the canal for every one they send via Israel. With one-way fees through the Suez reaching $300,000-$400,000, Levi says the pipeline allows Israel to offer a significant discount.
The company’s business has always been one of Israel’s most closely guarded secrets. Even today, EAPC releases no financial statements. Levi says he can’t disclose the names of customers—though he says they include “some of the biggest companies in the world.” What little information that is publicly known only came to light as the result of legal battles following a 2014 rupture in the pipeline that caused the worst environmental disaster in Israeli history, spilling more than 1.3 million gallons of crude oil into the Ein Evrona desert nature preserve.
If EAPC’s books are opaque, the lengths to which its customers go to obscure their identities through multiple registrations and other corporate cloaking techniques are legendary. The boycott enforced by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their oil-producing neighbors meant that tankers acknowledging their docking in Israel would be barred from future loadings in the Persian Gulf, effectively destroying their business. The details are highly confidential—but generally the ways ships can obscure their activities include turning off their transponders, repainting, reflagging, reregistering, and faking their docking records.
Levi, a retired captain in the Israeli navy, told Foreign Policy that the required secrecy made the pipeline route too expensive for most shipments. “Many ships that came to Eilat and Ashkelon had to do such and such operations in order that they would not be boycotted in one or another port. If the ship fears it will be blacklisted and boycotted, that gets priced in. All that costs me money so the price for transportation will go up.”
EAPC’s business model improves dramatically with the erosion of the Arab boycott. “If the concerns [with secrecy] go down significantly, the price will drop significantly,” Levi said. “Then it becomes economically feasible and even more worthwhile.” Once political barriers to using Israel as a transshipment hub are removed, business could boom. After the Israeli-UAE deal is formalized, other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are likely to follow, most likely Bahrain and Oman. Saudi Arabia has indicated it won’t establish formal links until the Palestinian conflict is resolved, although its business connections with Israel are plentiful and growing.
Levi says his goal is for the pipeline to capture between 12 percent and 17 percent of the oil business that now uses the Suez.
Levi says his goal is for the pipeline to capture somewhere between 12 percent and 17 percent of the oil business that now uses the Suez. Because of the canal’s limitations, much of the Gulf crude bound for Europe and North America gets pumped through Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, in which Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold a stake. Egypt’s pipeline, however, operates in only one direction, making it less useful than its Israeli competitor, which can also handle, for example, Russian or Azerbaijani oil heading to Asia.
The loser will be Egypt, which will see business siphoned off and have less control over prices now that there is competition. Even as it makes new friends in the Gulf, the Israeli company needs to be careful about biting too deeply into the revenue sources of Egypt, the first Arab state to make peace with Israel in 1979, and one of the poorest. “I don’t think it will make the Egyptians happy,” says Sievers, the former ambassador.
Israeli-Emirati cooperation in shipping is not entirely new. A precedent to smoothen the way is Israel’s Zim Integrated Shipping Services, which has been docking at ports managed by Dubai shipping titan DP World for more than 20 years, and has invested in joint ventures with the Emirati company. The relationship between Zim owner Idan Ofer and DP Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem is so strong that the Israeli billionaire lobbied the U.S. Congress on the Dubai company’s behalf in its unsuccessfully 2006 bid to buy terminal operations in the United States.
Even more possibilities arise from Israel’s discovery of a bounty of natural gas deposits off its Mediterranean coast that can supply far more than Israel’s own needs. Bringing in Gulf investors in addition to Israel’s current partners such as Chevron, and the possibility of connecting to the Middle East’s gas pipeline grid, would open yet another new horizon for Israel’s nascent energy industry.
As the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline emerges from its carefully nurtured obscurity, the UAE peace deal offers Israel a gateway into the high-stakes club of oil trading where hiding its flag was until now the price of admission.


Japan After Abe

The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last Friday took many by surprise .
But it wasn ’ t long before a host of observers in Japan and abroad had cobbled together various op-eds in praise of his years of leadership .
For those abroad , especially for those who worked closely with him , Abe brought a level of engagement in world affairs that far outstripped that of his predecessors .
For many Japanese at home , he brought political stability and steady governance .
In both cases , Abe represented the possibility of a reinvigorated Japan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kantei , Japan faces considerable challenges .
Three in particular will weigh on his successors .
The first is the COVID-19 pandemic and the unavoidable economic setback it presents .
Across the globe , leaders have struggled to contain this virus , and although Japanese citizens were disgruntled with what they saw as the Abe cabinet ’ s slow response to its spread , Japan has fared relatively well .
Today , the Health and Welfare Ministry reports just over 70,000 cases of infection , with roughly 31 percent of those cases in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus has also been low , with a rate of 1.9 percent , putting Japan at the lower end of the scale of global COVID-19 mortality rates .
The economic impact , however , has been devastating .
The biggest immediate consequence came from the loss in revenue from tourism , followed by the decision to postpone the 2020 Tokyo Olympics .
But it is the overall slowdown in Japan ’ s economic output that matters .
Already coming into 2020 with a more sluggish economy than hoped for , the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the prime minister ’ s economic agenda , dubbed Abenomics .
Second-quarter annualized losses were 27.8 percent of gross domestic product compared with the previous quarter , suggesting an overall setback to Japan ’ s annual GDP of almost 6 percent .
Leaving aside whether the policy goals of Abenomics will be embraced by the next prime minister , the loss will amplify Japan ’ s vulnerabilities .
If a wave of increasing protectionism hits the world , Japanese manufacturers will be hard-pressed to diminish their reliance on the global supply chain , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overcome in years to come .
Japan ’ s economy , already struggling , will continue to suffer from the pandemic ’ s impact on the global economy .
A second priority for Abe ’ s successors will be to ensure Japan ’ s security in an increasingly fraught Asia .
Without a doubt , Abe was an effective advocate for bolstering Japan ’ s defenses .
During his tenure , Japan increased its defense budget , reinterpreted its constitution to allow Japan ’ s Self-Defense Forces to work more closely with others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state secrets .
A two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament allowed Abe , his party , and his coalition partner Komeito to effect significant change on how the military can operate .
But there is more work ahead .
This summer , the minister of defense , Kono Taro , aborted an agreement with the United States to introduce the Aegis Ashore missile defense system to Japan , claiming it no longer offered sufficient promise of strengthening Japan ’ s defenses .
North Korea had rapidly increased its own ability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; local residents where the system was to be located could not be assured of its safety , and the costs were too great to justify deployment .
The cancellation of Aegis Ashore then led to a decision to rewrite Japan ’ s National Security Strategy , initially drafted in 2013 , and to adjust its 10-year national defense plan .
One of the items up for debate is the acquisition of conventional strike capability that would give Japan the ability to retaliate in the event of a ballistic missile attack .
Thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have to decide whether to move Japan ’ s military from a defensive to an offensive force posture in an era in which the regional military balance is rapidly shifting .
Finally , as its population ages , Japan ’ s leaders will need to guide their society through a complex array of structural transformations .
Today , 28.4 percent of the Japanese population is 65 or older .
In 16 years , that share will rise to 33.3 percent .
Taking care of those in retirement will burden state finances .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , looms large , as Japan ’ s government debt remains more than 200 percent of GDP .
The added impact of the coronavirus on public debt can not be ignored , making debt an even more compelling priority in the year ahead .
On the flip side of this demographic challenge , there will be fewer working-age Japanese available to sustain the nation ’ s economic growth .
To stay the world ’ s third-largest economy , Japan ’ s productivity will need to rise considerably .
The Abe cabinet began @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Agricultural reforms , including zoning to allow commercial use of land for agriculture and creating better commercial support for agricultural products increasingly on demand in world markets , allowed Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) to move beyond their traditional policy of subsidizing rice farmers and allowed greater opportunity for other agricultural producers .
Diversifying and commercializing Japan ’ s agricultural products for export also energized this sector and allowed a more forward-leaning approach among farmers for the opportunities for trade .
By making Japan ’ s agricultural sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Abe cabinet could then embrace the market liberalization required to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership ( now the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ) , a multinational trade pact projected to increase Japanese GDP by 2 percent by 2025 .
Another Abenomics reform was to support greater participation in Japan ’ s economy by women .
More funding for child care , a strong push for female leadership in corporate Japan , and initiatives to improve the gender balance in employment helped .
But Japanese women still face considerable challenges in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ require greater labor mobility in Japan , and this can not be achieved without change to Japan ’ s immigration policy .
A new policy increasing job opportunities for skilled workers in 2018 was a first step , but Japan will need to do better in the future to attract the kind of talent it needs to fuel its economic requirements .
Although potential successors may want to pick up many of Abe ’ s economic programs , they are less likely to embrace are some of his more politically fraught goals .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ platform , revising the nation ’ s constitution will likely recede as a priority in the coming years .
Some of the more politically sensitive aspects of Abe ’ s tenure , such as the allegation that the prime minister ( and his wife , Akie Abe ) were overly supportive of a new kindergarten that emphasized patriotic values , are likely to be less attractive to incoming leaders .
On the diplomatic front , Abe ’ s successors may see an opportunity to tackle some of Japan ’ s more thorny relationships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But Abe will still be seen as an asset in much of Japan ’ s diplomacy .
Especially important would be his close personal ties with U.S. President Donald Trump if Trump is reelected in November .
The LDP has decided to hold its election for Abe ’ s successor on Sept. 14 .
Senior leaders of the party , including its secretary-general , Toshihiro Nikai , want to avoid any disruption of government during the COVID-19 pandemic .
Three candidates are currently in the running , two of whom worked closely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ secretary , Yoshihide Suga , is widely seen to be the front runner , but Fumio Kishida , currently the head of the LDP Policy Research Council , also served as Abe ’ s foreign minister for five years .
Only one candidate , Shigeru Ishiba , is seen as someone with divergent views from Abe , but he too served in the top post of the LDP when Abe returned to power .
While more vocal in his criticism of Abe in recent years , Ishiba would be unlikely to abandon current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government ’ s priorities .
But Japanese voters will have to wait for the next general election , an election that must come by October 2021 , to hear a full-throated debate over how best to improve Japan ’ s future prospects .
Even without him , in other words , Japan will be following Abe ’ s priorities for some time to come .

The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last Friday took many by surprise. But it wasn’t long before a host of observers in Japan and abroad had cobbled together various op-eds in praise of his years of leadership. For those abroad, especially for those who worked closely with him, Abe brought a level of engagement in world affairs that far outstripped that of his predecessors. For many Japanese at home, he brought political stability and steady governance. In both cases, Abe represented the possibility of a reinvigorated Japan.
The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last Friday took many by surprise. But it wasn’t long before a host of observers in Japan and abroad had cobbled together various op-eds in praise of his years of leadership. For those abroad, especially for those who worked closely with him, Abe brought a level of engagement in world affairs that far outstripped that of his predecessors. For many Japanese at home, he brought political stability and steady governance. In both cases, Abe represented the possibility of a reinvigorated Japan.
But as he prepares to depart the Kantei, Japan faces considerable challenges. Three in particular will weigh on his successors. The first is the COVID-19 pandemic and the unavoidable economic setback it presents. Across the globe, leaders have struggled to contain this virus, and although Japanese citizens were disgruntled with what they saw as the Abe cabinet’s slow response to its spread, Japan has fared relatively well. Today, the Health and Welfare Ministry reports just over 70,000 cases of infection, with roughly 31 percent of those cases in Tokyo. The number of deaths from the coronavirus has also been low, with a rate of 1.9 percent, putting Japan at the lower end of the scale of global COVID-19 mortality rates.
The economic impact, however, has been devastating. The biggest immediate consequence came from the loss in revenue from tourism, followed by the decision to postpone the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. But it is the overall slowdown in Japan’s economic output that matters. Already coming into 2020 with a more sluggish economy than hoped for, the pandemic has already wiped out the gains of the prime minister’s economic agenda, dubbed Abenomics. Second-quarter annualized losses were 27.8 percent of gross domestic product compared with the previous quarter, suggesting an overall setback to Japan’s annual GDP of almost 6 percent. Leaving aside whether the policy goals of Abenomics will be embraced by the next prime minister, the loss will amplify Japan’s vulnerabilities. If a wave of increasing protectionism hits the world, Japanese manufacturers will be hard-pressed to diminish their reliance on the global supply chain, which means an even greater hurdle to overcome in years to come. Japan’s economy, already struggling, will continue to suffer from the pandemic’s impact on the global economy.
A second priority for Abe’s successors will be to ensure Japan’s security in an increasingly fraught Asia. Without a doubt, Abe was an effective advocate for bolstering Japan’s defenses. During his tenure, Japan increased its defense budget, reinterpreted its constitution to allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to work more closely with others, and developed new laws to protect state secrets. A two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament allowed Abe, his party, and his coalition partner Komeito to effect significant change on how the military can operate.
But there is more work ahead. This summer, the minister of defense, Kono Taro, aborted an agreement with the United States to introduce the Aegis Ashore missile defense system to Japan, claiming it no longer offered sufficient promise of strengthening Japan’s defenses. North Korea had rapidly increased its own ability to confound its adversaries’ ballistic missile defenses; local residents where the system was to be located could not be assured of its safety, and the costs were too great to justify deployment. The cancellation of Aegis Ashore then led to a decision to rewrite Japan’s National Security Strategy, initially drafted in 2013, and to adjust its 10-year national defense plan. One of the items up for debate is the acquisition of conventional strike capability that would give Japan the ability to retaliate in the event of a ballistic missile attack. Thus, Japan’s next prime minister will have to decide whether to move Japan’s military from a defensive to an offensive force posture in an era in which the regional military balance is rapidly shifting.
Finally, as its population ages, Japan’s leaders will need to guide their society through a complex array of structural transformations. Today, 28.4 percent of the Japanese population is 65 or older. In 16 years, that share will rise to 33.3 percent. Taking care of those in retirement will burden state finances. Pension reform, never popular in any country, looms large, as Japan’s government debt remains more than 200 percent of GDP. The added impact of the coronavirus on public debt cannot be ignored, making debt an even more compelling priority in the year ahead.
On the flip side of this demographic challenge, there will be fewer working-age Japanese available to sustain the nation’s economic growth. To stay the world’s third-largest economy, Japan’s productivity will need to rise considerably. The Abe cabinet began structural reforms designed to address this challenge. Agricultural reforms, including zoning to allow commercial use of land for agriculture and creating better commercial support for agricultural products increasingly on demand in world markets, allowed Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to move beyond their traditional policy of subsidizing rice farmers and allowed greater opportunity for other agricultural producers. Diversifying and commercializing Japan’s agricultural products for export also energized this sector and allowed a more forward-leaning approach among farmers for the opportunities for trade. By making Japan’s agricultural sector more competitive in regional markets, the Abe cabinet could then embrace the market liberalization required to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (now the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), a multinational trade pact projected to increase Japanese GDP by 2 percent by 2025.
Another Abenomics reform was to support greater participation in Japan’s economy by women. More funding for child care, a strong push for female leadership in corporate Japan, and initiatives to improve the gender balance in employment helped. But Japanese women still face considerable challenges in gender equity.
Further productivity gains will require greater labor mobility in Japan, and this cannot be achieved without change to Japan’s immigration policy. A new policy increasing job opportunities for skilled workers in 2018 was a first step, but Japan will need to do better in the future to attract the kind of talent it needs to fuel its economic requirements.
Although potential successors may want to pick up many of Abe’s economic programs, they are less likely to embrace are some of his more politically fraught goals. Although still on the LDP’s platform, revising the nation’s constitution will likely recede as a priority in the coming years. Some of the more politically sensitive aspects of Abe’s tenure, such as the allegation that the prime minister (and his wife, Akie Abe) were overly supportive of a new kindergarten that emphasized patriotic values, are likely to be less attractive to incoming leaders. On the diplomatic front, Abe’s successors may see an opportunity to tackle some of Japan’s more thorny relationships, such as its relationship with Seoul. But Abe will still be seen as an asset in much of Japan’s diplomacy. Especially important would be his close personal ties with U.S. President Donald Trump if Trump is reelected in November.
The LDP has decided to hold its election for Abe’s successor on Sept. 14. Senior leaders of the party, including its secretary-general, Toshihiro Nikai, want to avoid any disruption of government during the COVID-19 pandemic. Three candidates are currently in the running, two of whom worked closely with Abe. His long-standing chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, is widely seen to be the front runner, but Fumio Kishida, currently the head of the LDP Policy Research Council, also served as Abe’s foreign minister for five years. Only one candidate, Shigeru Ishiba, is seen as someone with divergent views from Abe, but he too served in the top post of the LDP when Abe returned to power. While more vocal in his criticism of Abe in recent years, Ishiba would be unlikely to abandon current policy and more likely to refine the government’s priorities.
But Japanese voters will have to wait for the next general election, an election that must come by October 2021, to hear a full-throated debate over how best to improve Japan’s future prospects. Even without him, in other words, Japan will be following Abe’s priorities for some time to come.


foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--Document of the Week: Czech Pol to China: Piss Off

Document of the Week : Czech Pol to China : Piss Off This year , Chinese officials have threatened trade reprisals against Australia , for advocating an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic , and against New Zealand , for raising concerns about China ’ s human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong .
China—the world ’ s largest producer of rare earth minerals—recently threatened to halt the sale of vital rare earth products to defense giant Lockheed Martin after it secured a contrade to upgrade Patriot air defense batteries in Taiwan .
But a dispute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a visit late last month to Taiwan by Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil has underscored the depth of antipathy toward China ’ s strong-armed diplomacy .
After the visit , Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi who threatened unspecified retaliation .
In response , Pavel Novotny , a local district mayor on the outskirts of Prague , fired off a scorching—if slightly unhinged—missive to the Chinese foreign minister on Monday , calling Beijing ’ s top diplomats “ impudent , thoughtless , uncouth clowns.
” We are posting the letter—which demands an apology from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Document of the Week ( with an English translation on the second page of the document ) .
The dispute between China and the Czech Republic , long in the making , got heated in January when Beijing ’ s envoy to Prague threatened to retaliate against Czech companies based in China if the Czech Republic ’ s then-Senate leader , Jaroslav Kubera , went ahead with an official visit to Taiwan , which China considers a renegade province .
In March , the Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called for the Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threat as “ unacceptable.
” Kubera subsequently died , but his successor , Vystrcil , made the trip late last month with a delegation of about 90 officials , including the Prague mayor , Zdenek Hrib , a vocal critic of the Chinese government who declared Taipei a sister city to Prague in January .
Beijing immediately issued an unspecified threat , saying it would make Vystrcil “ pay a heavy price for his short-sighted behavior and political opportunism.
” The feud has further complicated efforts by the Czech President Milos Zeman , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with China .
Zeman already cancelled a visit to Beijing in January for a summit of Central and Eastern European nations , citing Beijing ’ s failure to make good on promised investments .
And Beijing ’ s favorability rating in the Czech Republic is among the lowest in Europe .
Wang faced pushback from European capitals , with the French foreign ministry , calling the threat “ unacceptable ” and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas telling the Chinese diplomat “ threats don ’ t fit in here.
” But Novotny , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to another level .
“ That was THE LAST TIME that you open your trap about the Czech Republic !
” he wrote .
“ Now listen to me good , you Comrade Minister : The PRC will immediately apologize for the shameless threat .
When I say right away I mean ASAP !
“ You will not fuck with us like that !
” he added .
“ With much feigned regards .
”

Chinese diplomacy has taken on a sharper edge of late, with Beijing’s diplomats issuing increasingly harsh threats against countries from Australia to the United States for backing policies unpopular in Beijing.
Chinese diplomacy has taken on a sharper edge of late, with Beijing’s diplomats issuing increasingly harsh threats against countries from Australia to the United States for backing policies unpopular in Beijing.
This year, Chinese officials have threatened trade reprisals against Australia, for advocating an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, and against New Zealand, for raising concerns about China’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. China—the world’s largest producer of rare earth minerals—recently threatened to halt the sale of vital rare earth products to defense giant Lockheed Martin after it secured a contrade to upgrade Patriot air defense batteries in Taiwan.
But a dispute between China and the Czech Republic over a visit late last month to Taiwan by Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil has underscored the depth of antipathy toward China’s strong-armed diplomacy. After the visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi who threatened unspecified retaliation. In response, Pavel Novotny, a local district mayor on the outskirts of Prague, fired off a scorching—if slightly unhinged—missive to the Chinese foreign minister on Monday, calling Beijing’s top diplomats “impudent, thoughtless, uncouth clowns.”
We are posting the letter—which demands an apology from the Chinese government within 24 hours—as our Document of the Week (with an English translation on the second page of the document).
The dispute between China and the Czech Republic, long in the making, got heated in January when Beijing’s envoy to Prague threatened to retaliate against Czech companies based in China if the Czech Republic’s then-Senate leader, Jaroslav Kubera, went ahead with an official visit to Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province.
In March, the Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called for the Chinese ambassador to be replaced, describing his threat as “unacceptable.” Kubera subsequently died, but his successor, Vystrcil, made the trip late last month with a delegation of about 90 officials, including the Prague mayor, Zdenek Hrib, a vocal critic of the Chinese government who declared Taipei a sister city to Prague in January.
Beijing immediately issued an unspecified threat, saying it would make Vystrcil “pay a heavy price for his short-sighted behavior and political opportunism.”
The feud has further complicated efforts by the Czech President Milos Zeman, a China booster, to strengthen ties with China. Zeman already cancelled a visit to Beijing in January for a summit of Central and Eastern European nations, citing Beijing’s failure to make good on promised investments. And Beijing’s favorability rating in the Czech Republic is among the lowest in Europe.
Wang faced pushback from European capitals, with the French foreign ministry, calling the threat “unacceptable” and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas telling the Chinese diplomat “threats don’t fit in here.”
But Novotny, the mayor of the Prague-Reporyje district, took it to another level.
“That was THE LAST TIME that you open your trap about the Czech Republic!” he wrote. “Now listen to me good, you Comrade Minister: The PRC will immediately apologize for the shameless threat. When I say right away I mean ASAP!
“You will not fuck with us like that!” he added. “With much feigned regards.”


foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--Could Navalny’s Poisoning Spell the End for Nord Stream 2?

Could Navalny ’ s Poisoning Spell the End for Nord Stream 2 ?
Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : The German chancellor is under pressure to scrap a controversial Russian pipeline project after it was revealed that a foe of Russian leader Vladimir Putin was poisoned with Novichok , Venezuela ’ s embattled president pardons over 100 of his opponents , and energy lobbyists seek to get the United States to pressure Kenya to drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , please sign up here .
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing growing calls to end construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline after it was confirmed by German doctors this week that the Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was poisoned with Novichok , the same military-grade nerve agent used against the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal .
The Green Party , which is currently second in the polls to Merkel ’ s Christian Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ halt construction of the pipeline , led by the Russian energy behemoth Gazprom , from Russia to Germany , which is almost 95 percent complete , as a way to penalize Moscow .
“ This openly attempted murder through the Kremlin ’ s mafia-like structures should not just worry us but needs to have real consequences , ” said Katrin Göring-Eckardt , the co-chair of the Greens in the Bundestag .
The call was echoed by some members of Merkel ’ s own party .
“ The only language that Mr. Putin understands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Röttgen , a senior figure in the conservative party and head of the parliament ’ s foreign affairs committee .
“ We need to respond with the only language that Putin understands , the language of natural gas and selling natural gas , ” said Röttgen , who has long been an outspoken opponent of the project .
Navalny was flown to Berlin for treatment last month after suddenly falling critically ill on a flight from Siberia to Moscow .
The German government announced on Wednesday that the Putin foe had been poisoned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agent developed by the Soviet Union .
Navalny remains in an artificial coma and is reported to be in a critical but stable condition .
Whodunnit .
Analysts initially doubted Russian government involvement in the poisoning , noting that the popular opposition leader ’ s death was seen as a “ nightmare scenario ” by the Kremlin over fears that it could spark mass unrest .
Speaking at an event the night before he was poisoned , Der Spiegel reported , Navalny said , “ If they kill me , it will just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Just as was the case with Nemtsov , ” referring to the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov , who was gunned down just a stone ’ s throw away from the Kremlin in 2015 .
The involvement of Novichok , a highly controlled substance used in the Russian attempt to murder the defector Sergei Skripal in the U.K. in 2018 , has thrown this conclusion into doubt .
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said , “ There are no grounds to accuse the Russian state .
And we are not inclined to accept any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ response .
Merkel has been steadfast in her support for the pipeline and last Friday , after Navalny had already arrived in Berlin , underscored the need to complete it .
It ’ s unclear how she will respond to renewed calls to abandon the pipeline .
Merkel has long taken a hard line on Russia and has sought to maintain the European Union ’ s unity on sanctions on Moscow over its annexation of Crimea in 2014 .
At the same time , Germany is acutely aware of the need to maintain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international issues such as the wars in Ukraine and Syria and the spiraling proxy conflict in Libya .
Pipeline politics .
Nord Stream 2 has long been the subject of controversy on both sides of the Atlantic .
Supporters of the project argue that it will increase Europe ’ s energy security by doubling Russian gas flows to Germany .
Critics , including the United States , fear that it will increase Moscow ’ s energy stranglehold over the continent .
Construction of the pipeline was brought to a halt after U.S. sanctions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Swiss company Allseas to withdraw its pipe-laying vessel from the project , forcing Russia to come up with a new plan .
The future of the pipeline was thrown into further question this year as further sanctions have been included in both the House and Senate versions of the National Defense Authorization Act , which will be finalized later this year .
Sudan .
Sudan ’ s transitional government signed a peace deal with an alliance of rebel groups on Monday in the hopes of ending almost two decades of fighting in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to figures from the United Nations , over 300,000 people have been killed and millions displaced .
Also party to the accords was a separate rebel group from the southern regions of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile , where fighting broke out in 2011 .
The agreement has been hailed as a major step forward to ending the regional conflicts and would give rebel groups devolved powers , political representation , and other rights .
Experts have noted that two key rebel groups boycotted the talks and could play spoiler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Abdel Wahid al-Nur , the leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement , which was not part of the deal , told Voice of America that the accord would fail because it didn ’ t address the root causes that drive militancy : the perception that wealth and power is not even distributed among the country ’ s different ethnic and religious groups .
Political pardons in Venezuela .
The government of Venezuela announced on Monday that it would pardon over 100 political opponents including dozens of members of the opposition and activists .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been in prison awaiting trial , while others had been forced to leave the country or seek refuge in foreign embassies .
Minister of communications Jorge Rodríguez said that the amnesty was intended to boost “ national reconciliation , ” but the move has been interpreted as a bid to coax the U.S.-backed opposition to participate in legislative elections scheduled to be held in December .
Opposition groups have said they will boycott the vote out of concerns that their participation could lend a veneer of legitimacy to elections they fear may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maduro ’ s Socialist Party .
The unity of the boycott was thrown into question this week as prominent opposition figure Henrique Capriles , who is himself barred from running for election , announced on Wednesday that he was breaking with calls for a boycott made by Juan Guaidó , who is recognized by dozens of countries as Venezuela ’ s rightful leader .
“ We ’ re not going to leave the people without an option [ in the elections ] , ” Capriles said in a webcast .
Big plastic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ what would be the first bilateral trade deal between Washington and a sub-Saharan African country , an industry group representing major oil and chemical companies is lobbying to try to get the United States to pressure Kenya to reverse its world-leading stance against plastic waste , according to documents obtained by Unearthed , a Greenpeace affiliate .
In 2017 Kenya banned the production , sale , and use of plastic bags .
Last year Kenya was one of nearly 190 countries that signed on to a global deal which sought to restrict the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to poorer ones .
In a letter to the Office of the United States Trade Representative , lobbyists from the American Chemistry Council wrote that “ Kenya could serve in the future as a hub for supplying U.S.-made chemicals and plastics to other markets in Africa through this trade agreement.
” ( The group told the Associated Press in a statement that “ it is well understood that a bilateral trade agreement between the United States and Kenya will not override Kenya ’ s domestic approach to managing plastic waste or undermine its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis drives countries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels , energy companies have spent over $ 200 billion over the past decade in the United States in pivoting their business toward the plastics industry instead .
Cyberattack in Norway .
The Norwegian parliament announced this week that it had suffered what it described as a “ significant cyberattack ” in which the email accounts of a number of lawmakers and their staffers were compromised .
Among those affected were members of the opposition Labor and Center parties .
The director of the assembly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures enacted to halt the attack had an immediate effect .
Andreassen did not say who was thought to be behind the attack .
Facebook announced this week that it had taken down a network of fake accounts and pages tied to the Russian Internet Research Agency , better known as the troll factory .
The accounts sought to direct traffic to a Russian-run left-leaning news site , Peace Data .
After receiving a tip from the FBI , Facebook took down the network before it had gained a significant following .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Russian operatives , the accounts successfully managed to recruit a number of U.S. journalists to write for the site .
In an article for the Guardian , the freelance writer Jack Delaney explains how he was duped by the operation .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: The German chancellor is under pressure to scrap a controversial Russian pipeline project after it was revealed that a foe of Russian leader Vladimir Putin was poisoned with Novichok, Venezuela’s embattled president pardons over 100 of his opponents, and energy lobbyists seek to get the United States to pressure Kenya to drop its world-leading stance against plastic waste.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
German Leader Faces Calls to Halt Russian Pipeline Project
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing growing calls to end construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline after it was confirmed by German doctors this week that the Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was poisoned with Novichok, the same military-grade nerve agent used against the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal.
The Green Party, which is currently second in the polls to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, called on the chancellor to halt construction of the pipeline, led by the Russian energy behemoth Gazprom, from Russia to Germany, which is almost 95 percent complete, as a way to penalize Moscow. “This openly attempted murder through the Kremlin’s mafia-like structures should not just worry us but needs to have real consequences,” said Katrin Göring-Eckardt, the co-chair of the Greens in the Bundestag.
The call was echoed by some members of Merkel’s own party. “The only language that Mr. Putin understands is tough language,” said Norbert Röttgen, a senior figure in the conservative party and head of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “We need to respond with the only language that Putin understands, the language of natural gas and selling natural gas,” said Röttgen, who has long been an outspoken opponent of the project.
Navalny was flown to Berlin for treatment last month after suddenly falling critically ill on a flight from Siberia to Moscow. The German government announced on Wednesday that the Putin foe had been poisoned with Novichok, a potentially lethal nerve agent developed by the Soviet Union. Navalny remains in an artificial coma and is reported to be in a critical but stable condition.
Whodunnit. Analysts initially doubted Russian government involvement in the poisoning, noting that the popular opposition leader’s death was seen as a “nightmare scenario” by the Kremlin over fears that it could spark mass unrest. Speaking at an event the night before he was poisoned, Der Spiegel reported, Navalny said, “If they kill me, it will just create more problems for those in power. Just as was the case with Nemtsov,” referring to the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, who was gunned down just a stone’s throw away from the Kremlin in 2015. The involvement of Novichok, a highly controlled substance used in the Russian attempt to murder the defector Sergei Skripal in the U.K. in 2018, has thrown this conclusion into doubt. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “There are no grounds to accuse the Russian state. And we are not inclined to accept any accusations in this respect.”
The German response. Merkel has been steadfast in her support for the pipeline and last Friday, after Navalny had already arrived in Berlin, underscored the need to complete it. It’s unclear how she will respond to renewed calls to abandon the pipeline. Merkel has long taken a hard line on Russia and has sought to maintain the European Union’s unity on sanctions on Moscow over its annexation of Crimea in 2014. At the same time, Germany is acutely aware of the need to maintain a constructive dialogue with Russia over pressing international issues such as the wars in Ukraine and Syria and the spiraling proxy conflict in Libya.
Pipeline politics. Nord Stream 2 has long been the subject of controversy on both sides of the Atlantic. Supporters of the project argue that it will increase Europe’s energy security by doubling Russian gas flows to Germany. Critics, including the United States, fear that it will increase Moscow’s energy stranglehold over the continent. Construction of the pipeline was brought to a halt after U.S. sanctions passed by Congress last year forced the Swiss company Allseas to withdraw its pipe-laying vessel from the project, forcing Russia to come up with a new plan. The future of the pipeline was thrown into further question this year as further sanctions have been included in both the House and Senate versions of the National Defense Authorization Act, which will be finalized later this year.
What We’re Following
Sudan. Sudan’s transitional government signed a peace deal with an alliance of rebel groups on Monday in the hopes of ending almost two decades of fighting in the country’s Darfur region in which, according to figures from the United Nations, over 300,000 people have been killed and millions displaced. Also party to the accords was a separate rebel group from the southern regions of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, where fighting broke out in 2011.
The agreement has been hailed as a major step forward to ending the regional conflicts and would give rebel groups devolved powers, political representation, and other rights. Experts have noted that two key rebel groups boycotted the talks and could play spoiler to efforts to end the fighting. Abdel Wahid al-Nur, the leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement, which was not part of the deal, told Voice of America that the accord would fail because it didn’t address the root causes that drive militancy: the perception that wealth and power is not even distributed among the country’s different ethnic and religious groups.
Political pardons in Venezuela. The government of Venezuela announced on Monday that it would pardon over 100 political opponents including dozens of members of the opposition and activists. Several of the lawmakers who were pardoned had been in prison awaiting trial, while others had been forced to leave the country or seek refuge in foreign embassies.
Minister of communications Jorge Rodríguez said that the amnesty was intended to boost “national reconciliation,” but the move has been interpreted as a bid to coax the U.S.-backed opposition to participate in legislative elections scheduled to be held in December. Opposition groups have said they will boycott the vote out of concerns that their participation could lend a veneer of legitimacy to elections they fear may be rigged in favor of President Nicolás Maduro’s Socialist Party. The unity of the boycott was thrown into question this week as prominent opposition figure Henrique Capriles, who is himself barred from running for election, announced on Wednesday that he was breaking with calls for a boycott made by Juan Guaidó, who is recognized by dozens of countries as Venezuela’s rightful leader. “We’re not going to leave the people without an option [in the elections],” Capriles said in a webcast.
Big plastic. As the United States and Kenya negotiate what would be the first bilateral trade deal between Washington and a sub-Saharan African country, an industry group representing major oil and chemical companies is lobbying to try to get the United States to pressure Kenya to reverse its world-leading stance against plastic waste, according to documents obtained by Unearthed, a Greenpeace affiliate. In 2017 Kenya banned the production, sale, and use of plastic bags. Last year Kenya was one of nearly 190 countries that signed on to a global deal which sought to restrict the export of plastic waste from wealthy nations to poorer ones.
In a letter to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, lobbyists from the American Chemistry Council wrote that “Kenya could serve in the future as a hub for supplying U.S.-made chemicals and plastics to other markets in Africa through this trade agreement.” (The group told the Associated Press in a statement that “it is well understood that a bilateral trade agreement between the United States and Kenya will not override Kenya’s domestic approach to managing plastic waste or undermine its international commitment.”) As the climate crisis drives countries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, energy companies have spent over $200 billion over the past decade in the United States in pivoting their business toward the plastics industry instead.
Keep an Eye On The Solomon Islands. The largest province in the Solomon Islands announced this week that it plans to hold an independence referendum due to rising tensions with the national government over its decision last year to cut ties with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with Beijing. Strategically located to the northeast of Australia, the Solomon Islands’ decision to switch allegiances was a blow for Taipei and U.S. diplomacy in the South Pacific. Relations between the Malaita province, which is home to a quarter of the country’s population and has long harbored aspirations for independence, and the government have frayed further during the coronavirus pandemic after a shipment of medical aid from Taiwan destined for the province was seized in the nation’s capital, Honiara. A referendum on independence could be held as early as this month.
Cyberattack in Norway. The Norwegian parliament announced this week that it had suffered what it described as a “significant cyberattack” in which the email accounts of a number of lawmakers and their staffers were compromised. Among those affected were members of the opposition Labor and Center parties. The director of the assembly, Marianne Andreassen, said that risk-reduction measures enacted to halt the attack had an immediate effect. Andreassen did not say who was thought to be behind the attack.
FP Recommends
Facebook announced this week that it had taken down a network of fake accounts and pages tied to the Russian Internet Research Agency, better known as the troll factory. The accounts sought to direct traffic to a Russian-run left-leaning news site, Peace Data. After receiving a tip from the FBI, Facebook took down the network before it had gained a significant following. But in a sign of the growing sophistication of Russian operatives, the accounts successfully managed to recruit a number of U.S. journalists to write for the site. In an article for the Guardian, the freelance writer Jack Delaney explains how he was duped by the operation.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-09-04--Why Do Royals Get Away With So Much?

Why Do Royals Get Away With So Much?

Why Do Royals Get Away With So Much ?
“ Epstein did not act alone , so my next step is holding other people accountable , the people that were involved , the people that actually participated .
… The monsters are still out there , and they are still abusing other people.
” These are the words of Virginia Roberts Giuffre , from a Netflix documentary about the late financier , socialite , and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein .
She says Epstein trafficked , raped , and abused her for years , before she finally escaped to Australia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Duke of York , of being a participant in Epstein ’ s web of horrifying abuse .
As new documents emerge in the Epstein case , those accusations are a ticking time bomb for the British royal family .
Andrew is not high in the line of succession , but the toxic world revealed by his ties to Epstein has already cost him and the rest of the House of Windsor dearly .
The purpose of minor royals has long been as a glamorous tool in the world of international connections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposed , their utility is more in question than ever .
“ I can tell you categorically , I don ’ t remember meeting her at all , ” the prince said of Roberts Giuffre .
The casual dismissal—despite the photographic evidence—of his accuser is horribly revealing .
Yet even before this scandal , there were numerous questions about Andrew ’ s activities , including his involvement in arms sales to corrupt and repressive regimes with long histories of human rights abuses , 12 separate meetings with the president of Azerbaijan that forced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.K. trade envoy , and allegedly corrupt behavior in securing a 385 million pound ( $ 500 million ) contract in Kazakhstan for Swiss and Greek clients to financially benefit himself .
Yet in securing arms deals and buttering up bigwigs , Andrew was in some ways only doing what was expected of him as a minor royal .
The “ spares ” instead of the “ heirs ” have long been deployed as British diplomatic and trade tools , dispatched to bring a touch of glamor to some local tyrant or oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attention—not least because the palace promotes it—but the glad-handing of terrible people is a critical part of royal diplomacy .
But the Epstein affair goes beyond that , not least because it stood outside the normal affairs of state .
Friendship with Central Asian oligarchs and Middle East princes might be ethically dubious , but at least there ’ s the cover of governmental obligations .
Andrew ’ s connections to Epstein , meanwhile , were purely personal .
It didn ’ t help when his “ car crash ” interview with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16 , 2019 , saw him deny ever having had sex with Roberts Giuffre because , he claimed , he was at Pizza Express in Woking with his daughter Beatrice .
This gave birth to a whole new collection of memes and tweets mocking this very specific denial .
During the interview , he also admitted to residing in a Manhattan mansion belonging to Epstein for three days in 2010 , despite Epstein ’ s conviction two years earlier for sex offenses against a minor .
Andrew said it was a “ convenient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the BBC interview , Buckingham Palace announced in a statement that Andrew would be suspended from public duties for the “ foreseeable future , ” with the consent of the queen .
Soon after , he gave up his role as chancellor of the University of Huddersfield and stepped down from all of his 230 patronages .
In January of this year , the Home Office recommended that the prince ’ s security detail be downgraded .
All activities carried out by the Prince Andrew Charitable Trust have also been stopped .
Andrew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the royal family , with no public-facing duties required of him .
But that might not be enough .
As events unfold in the United States , the legal questions around Andrew ’ s actions—and the fallout for the rest of the family—could be critical .
A “ Jane Doe # 3 ” is listed in new papers as making accusations against him .
That may be Roberts Giuffre again , or it could be another possible victim .
And evidence is emerging backing her accusations—like the former employee of Epstein ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Little St. James , Epstein ’ s private island , and how he managed to identify Roberts Giuffre as the young woman seen topless with Andrew “ grabbing her and grinding against her ” circa 2004 .
The FBI has claimed that Andrew has not helped in its investigations against Epstein and Maxwell and has publicly called for the prince to come in and speak to investigators .
Audrey Strauss , the acting U.S. attorney in Manhattan , said during a press conference on July 2 that prosecutors would “ welcome Prince @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We would like to have the benefit of his statement.
” Sovereign immunity—the principle that states and the people who represent them , when acting in their state capacity , are not liable—has helped royals escape justice in the past .
Take Abu Bakar , the Sultan of Johor , who , on visiting Britain in the 1880s incognito , struck up a relationship with a young woman , Jenny Mighell , whom he promised to marry .
He left the country , and Mighell sued him for “ breach of promise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days .
Alas , since Johor possessed a navy , its own courts , and a post office , the British judges deemed it a state like any other and the sultan to have been acting in that capacity , leaving Mighell out of luck .
Such royal excuses won ’ t help Andrew , though .
Despite his status , he doesn ’ t enjoy the same kind of immunity that his mother does as head of state .
While that sovereign immunity can be extended to other royals , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomatic duties , informal ones like befriending uber-rich pedophiles don ’ t count in that function .
The queen could go on a murder spree on Fifth Avenue and technically be impossible to prosecute ; Andrew is out of luck—and must be quaking in his ( properly tailored ) boots at the moment .
The British royal family has survived more than its fair share of scandals , from illegitimate marriages to Nazi associations to the cover-up of murder—and that ’ s just Edward VIII .
But it has never had a member @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let alone a foreign one .
The British government will be putting plenty of effort in behind the scenes to make sure that doesn ’ t happen .
But if it does—or if the cover-up becomes clearer—Britain might start asking that hard question again : Why do the royals get away with so much ?

“Epstein did not act alone, so my next step is holding other people accountable, the people that were involved, the people that actually participated. … The monsters are still out there, and they are still abusing other people.”
“Epstein did not act alone, so my next step is holding other people accountable, the people that were involved, the people that actually participated. … The monsters are still out there, and they are still abusing other people.”
These are the words of Virginia Roberts Giuffre, from a Netflix documentary about the late financier, socialite, and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. She says Epstein trafficked, raped, and abused her for years, before she finally escaped to Australia.
She has also accused Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, of being a participant in Epstein’s web of horrifying abuse.
As new documents emerge in the Epstein case, those accusations are a ticking time bomb for the British royal family. Andrew is not high in the line of succession, but the toxic world revealed by his ties to Epstein has already cost him and the rest of the House of Windsor dearly. The purpose of minor royals has long been as a glamorous tool in the world of international connections; with the rottenness of that scene exposed, their utility is more in question than ever.
“I can tell you categorically, I don’t remember meeting her at all,” the prince said of Roberts Giuffre. The casual dismissal—despite the photographic evidence—of his accuser is horribly revealing. Yet even before this scandal, there were numerous questions about Andrew’s activities, including his involvement in arms sales to corrupt and repressive regimes with long histories of human rights abuses, 12 separate meetings with the president of Azerbaijan that forced the prince to step down as a U.K. trade envoy, and allegedly corrupt behavior in securing a 385 million pound ($500 million) contract in Kazakhstan for Swiss and Greek clients to financially benefit himself.
Yet in securing arms deals and buttering up bigwigs, Andrew was in some ways only doing what was expected of him as a minor royal. The “spares” instead of the “heirs” have long been deployed as British diplomatic and trade tools, dispatched to bring a touch of glamor to some local tyrant or oil millionaire. Their charity work gets more attention—not least because the palace promotes it—but the glad-handing of terrible people is a critical part of royal diplomacy.
But the Epstein affair goes beyond that, not least because it stood outside the normal affairs of state. Friendship with Central Asian oligarchs and Middle East princes might be ethically dubious, but at least there’s the cover of governmental obligations. Andrew’s connections to Epstein, meanwhile, were purely personal. It didn’t help when his “car crash” interview with the BBC’s Emily Maitlis on Nov. 16, 2019, saw him deny ever having had sex with Roberts Giuffre because, he claimed, he was at Pizza Express in Woking with his daughter Beatrice. This gave birth to a whole new collection of memes and tweets mocking this very specific denial.
During the interview, he also admitted to residing in a Manhattan mansion belonging to Epstein for three days in 2010, despite Epstein’s conviction two years earlier for sex offenses against a minor. Andrew said it was a “convenient place to stay.”
Four days after the BBC interview, Buckingham Palace announced in a statement that Andrew would be suspended from public duties for the “foreseeable future,” with the consent of the queen. Soon after, he gave up his role as chancellor of the University of Huddersfield and stepped down from all of his 230 patronages. In January of this year, the Home Office recommended that the prince’s security detail be downgraded. All activities carried out by the Prince Andrew Charitable Trust have also been stopped. Andrew is now a permanently nonactive member of the royal family, with no public-facing duties required of him.
But that might not be enough. As events unfold in the United States, the legal questions around Andrew’s actions—and the fallout for the rest of the family—could be critical. A “Jane Doe #3” is listed in new papers as making accusations against him. That may be Roberts Giuffre again, or it could be another possible victim. And evidence is emerging backing her accusations—like the former employee of Epstein’s who has spoken about his time working at Little St. James, Epstein’s private island, and how he managed to identify Roberts Giuffre as the young woman seen topless with Andrew “grabbing her and grinding against her” circa 2004.
The FBI has claimed that Andrew has not helped in its investigations against Epstein and Maxwell and has publicly called for the prince to come in and speak to investigators. Audrey Strauss, the acting U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said during a press conference on July 2 that prosecutors would “welcome Prince Andrew coming in to talk with us. We would like to have the benefit of his statement.”
Sovereign immunity—the principle that states and the people who represent them, when acting in their state capacity, are not liable—has helped royals escape justice in the past. Take Abu Bakar, the Sultan of Johor, who, on visiting Britain in the 1880s incognito, struck up a relationship with a young woman, Jenny Mighell, whom he promised to marry. He left the country, and Mighell sued him for “breach of promise”—a serious civil offense in those days. Alas, since Johor possessed a navy, its own courts, and a post office, the British judges deemed it a state like any other and the sultan to have been acting in that capacity, leaving Mighell out of luck.
Such royal excuses won’t help Andrew, though. Despite his status, he doesn’t enjoy the same kind of immunity that his mother does as head of state. While that sovereign immunity can be extended to other royals, such as Prince Charles, when they perform formal diplomatic duties, informal ones like befriending uber-rich pedophiles don’t count in that function. The queen could go on a murder spree on Fifth Avenue and technically be impossible to prosecute; Andrew is out of luck—and must be quaking in his (properly tailored) boots at the moment.
The British royal family has survived more than its fair share of scandals, from illegitimate marriages to Nazi associations to the cover-up of murder—and that’s just Edward VIII. But it has never had a member hauled up before a criminal court, let alone a foreign one. The British government will be putting plenty of effort in behind the scenes to make sure that doesn’t happen. But if it does—or if the cover-up becomes clearer—Britain might start asking that hard question again: Why do the royals get away with so much?