foreignpolicy--2020-11-13--U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague

U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague

U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague COVID-19 cases are soaring in Geneva , the site of the European headquarters of the United Nations , making Switzerland one of the harder-hit countries on the continent .
But the international organization is still pressing ahead with plans to host Afghan and Syrian peace conferences later this month , fueling concerns among some U.N. staffers and diplomats that the coronavirus may spread further within the ranks of the international civil service .
In recent months , Tatiana Valovaya , the director general of the U.N. office in Geneva , has sought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hosting international meetings on Afghanistan , Libya , Syria , and Yemen , and running a series of cultural conferences and exhibitions .
The policies on access to the U.N. ’ s Palais des Nations in Geneva have been consistent with Switzerland ’ s laws , but they have left the organization struggling to keep the virus at bay .
Since March , a total of 128 new Geneva-based U.N. staff have been infected with the coronavirus , including 46 people in the U.N. Office in Geneva and 20 in the U.N. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself , Filippo Grandi—according to internal figures .
In August , four Syrian nationals tested positive for the coronavirus when they arrived in Geneva for talks , feeding concerns that the U.N. has been too lax .
“ They have been negligently permissive , ” said one senior Geneva-based diplomat .
Valovaya , the diplomat said , has taken a more lenient stance than other international organizations , like the World Trade Organization—and than the U.N. ’ s own mothership .
The organization ’ s Manhattan headquarters has largely stopped hosting conferences or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of foreign dignitaries traveling to New York , and it even held the September General Assembly meeting virtually .
U.N. officials say the restrictions have kept the virus at bay , and that there have been no infections spread at the Manhattan headquarters building ( even if 138 staffers and delegates have gotten infected in New York this year ) .
But the pandemic and those restrictions have severely restricted the U.N. ’ s capacity to perform its traditional role convening international conferences and peace talks , with fears of contagion keeping foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the difficult balancing act the U.N. must play in trying to pursue its vital peacemaking role during a pandemic , a task that is only complicated by the fact that the countries and cities where it operates , including Geneva and New York City , have varied rules and restrictions .
The different approaches in New York and Geneva have both sparked blowback from certain countries—some say the Geneva headquarters have been too lenient , and others say that the U.N. in New York too restrictive .
As early as March , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Russia resisted plans to take the Security Council virtual , pressing for in-person meetings .
In July , Germany used its presidency of the Security Council to hold the first in-person meetings since the pandemic shut down its on-site operations , though meetings had strict limits on the number of attendees .
Before the U.N. General Assembly ’ s annual September session , the president of the assembly , Volkan Bozkir of Turkey , urged the city and state to allow foreign leaders to attend the meeting without having to be quarantined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea of inviting world leaders to New York , warning governments in a letter that it would be unsafe to meet in person—and the session went ahead virtually .
Bozkir is trying again , recently telling colleagues he wants New York ’ s two-week quarantine order for international visitors waived to allow foreign leaders to travel to New York for a meeting on the pandemic in December , according to diplomatic sources .
But that seems unlikely .
Earlier this month , the U.S. Mission to the United Nations informed the U.N. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been reduced to four days , as long as the visitor was found to test negative in two separate tests .
Even that truncated quarantine is unlikely to lure world leaders to New York just to spend four days trapped in their hotel rooms .
In Geneva , things have been more relaxed—which has also drawn plenty of criticism .
As the virus abated over the summer , the Geneva headquarters began preparations to gradually reopen its doors , though not without resistance .
In late May , a group of 25 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Saudi Arabia—wrote a joint letter to Valovaya expressing concerns about plans to convene in-person meetings at the Palais , including the U.N. Human Rights Council session from June 15 to 23 .
“ [ I ] t is our view that an in-person meeting commencing in mid-June puts our staff at potential risk especially given the transmission rate in Geneva , ” the letter , which was obtained by Foreign Policy , read .
The U.N. pressed ahead with in-person meetings , allowing up to 30 percent of staff to begin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and organizing in-person conferences with reduced participation on human rights and disarmament the following weeks .
It also secured agreement from the Swiss government to invite peace delegations from Afghanistan , Libya , Syria , and Yemen .
One senior diplomat voiced sympathy for the U.N. , saying it has to balance conflicting pressure from governments that want to do more at the headquarters and others that want to do less .
In the end , the diplomat said , “ they follow the rules that the Swiss put in place and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within the rules to do more within rules.
” Switzerland ’ s U.N. ambassador , Jürg Lauber , said that the United Nations and other international agencies in Geneva had most staff working from home and most meetings in virtual formats .
“ At the same time , great efforts have been undertaken by the permanent missions and international organizations to maintain business continuity and fulfill their respective mandates , which are as important as ever , if not more so , under the current circumstances , ” Lauber said .
And U.N. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been scrupulous in its efforts to ensure the safety of workers and foreign delegates .
They noted that none of the infections were spread on the U.N. premises but were contracted by staff in social settings outside the headquarters , where the disease is spreading rapidly .
“ The Palais is probably the safest place in Geneva , ” said David Chikvaidze , Valovaya ’ s chief of staff , with only about 18 percent of staff on site and about 200 hand sanitizers available .
The U.N. doesn ’ t keep track @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the virus has led to a small new outbreak at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in Geneva , which had grappled with infections in March and this summer , according to two senior diplomatic sources .
At least two Western ambassadors have been infected , and the driver of the late Ugandan ambassador died of COVID-19 , those officials said .
One U.N. official blamed the spike on the Swiss authorities , saying they reopened the country too quickly .
“ They opened up not only restaurants and bars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and tattoo parlors , ” said one U.N. official .
“ We were walking around in our regimented lines in the Palais while people outside on the lake were sitting huddled in groups , drinking beer with no social distancing.
” Today , though , the city of Geneva has cracked down , imposing a wide series of restrictions in November that limit most gatherings to five people .
Switzerland is on pace to become a major European COVID-19 hotspot , with a positivity rate of 28 percent as of late October , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York .
That ’ s why many question the wisdom of hosting Afghan and Syria talks .
In August , four members of the Syrian Constitutional Committee , which includes representatives of the government and opposition groups , tested positive for COVID-19 upon arrival in Geneva for talks .
The U.N. ’ s special envoy , Geir Pedersen of Norway , has been keen to keep the talks on track .
The Syria talks still require approval by Swiss authorities .
If they go ahead , the U.N. will impose stringent health measures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government and the World Health Organization , said Jenifer Fenton , the chief spokesperson for the U.N. special envoy for Syria .
“ The safety and security of our staff will always be our top priority and concern , ” she said in an email statement .
Health protocols , she added , include testing , the mandatory wearing of masks at all times , temperature checks , and strict physical distancing .
“ Advancing the political process has proven to be extremely challenging , and the Special Envoy recognizes our obligation to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may present itself to achieve meaningful progress , ” she added .
“ I think the meeting makes no sense , ” said the senior diplomat .
“ If there is some reasonable expectation or belief that some form of meaningful progress will take place because this meeting is being held then sure , have the meeting .
But no one has suggested to me that something is going to happen.
” Alessandra Vellucci , the chief spokesperson for the U.N. in Geneva , said that there is currently a cap of five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And even though the Swiss government has authorized the U.N. to convene special political meetings for up to 50 individuals , she said that the Afghan talks later this month are likely to have only 30 to 40 attendees in person , with the rest participating virtually .
“ It is important for us to strike a balance between these critical political activities that are at the core of U.N. Geneva , with the absolute priority of safeguarding the health and safety of the staff and delegates , which is why we take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and full cooperation with the Swiss authorities , ” Vellucci said .
And U.N. officials moving ahead with plans for in-person peace talks can point to some concrete achievements : In September , Yemen ’ s government and Houthi insurgents agreed to a mass prisoner swap , and last month Geneva was the site of a truce among Libya ’ s warring factions .
A harder sell might be the cultural events the headquarters has held , including a Russian chess exhibition featuring the Russian grandmaster Anatoly Karpov , a Russian photographic exhibit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exhibit of traditional Moldovan carpets and costumes , and art show .
“ Amid the doom and gloom a couple of events , combined with masks and social distancing , was it so bad to do something to raise morale ?
” Chikvaidze said .
“ We planned this before the situation went south .
We didn ’ t pull the plug , but we made sure it went off without a hitch .
”

COVID-19 cases are soaring in Geneva, the site of the European headquarters of the United Nations, making Switzerland one of the harder-hit countries on the continent. But the international organization is still pressing ahead with plans to host Afghan and Syrian peace conferences later this month, fueling concerns among some U.N. staffers and diplomats that the coronavirus may spread further within the ranks of the international civil service.
COVID-19 cases are soaring in Geneva, the site of the European headquarters of the United Nations, making Switzerland one of the harder-hit countries on the continent. But the international organization is still pressing ahead with plans to host Afghan and Syrian peace conferences later this month, fueling concerns among some U.N. staffers and diplomats that the coronavirus may spread further within the ranks of the international civil service.
In recent months, Tatiana Valovaya, the director general of the U.N. office in Geneva, has sought to keep the work of international diplomacy alive, hosting international meetings on Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, and running a series of cultural conferences and exhibitions.
The policies on access to the U.N.’s Palais des Nations in Geneva have been consistent with Switzerland’s laws, but they have left the organization struggling to keep the virus at bay. Since March, a total of 128 new Geneva-based U.N. staff have been infected with the coronavirus, including 46 people in the U.N. Office in Geneva and 20 in the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees—including the high commissioner himself, Filippo Grandi—according to internal figures. In August, four Syrian nationals tested positive for the coronavirus when they arrived in Geneva for talks, feeding concerns that the U.N. has been too lax.
“They have been negligently permissive,” said one senior Geneva-based diplomat. Valovaya, the diplomat said, has taken a more lenient stance than other international organizations, like the World Trade Organization—and than the U.N.’s own mothership.
The organization’s Manhattan headquarters has largely stopped hosting conferences or peace talks that would require significant numbers of foreign dignitaries traveling to New York, and it even held the September General Assembly meeting virtually. U.N. officials say the restrictions have kept the virus at bay, and that there have been no infections spread at the Manhattan headquarters building (even if 138 staffers and delegates have gotten infected in New York this year). But the pandemic and those restrictions have severely restricted the U.N.’s capacity to perform its traditional role convening international conferences and peace talks, with fears of contagion keeping foreign dignitaries from visiting.
The situation underscores the difficult balancing act the U.N. must play in trying to pursue its vital peacemaking role during a pandemic, a task that is only complicated by the fact that the countries and cities where it operates, including Geneva and New York City, have varied rules and restrictions. The different approaches in New York and Geneva have both sparked blowback from certain countries—some say the Geneva headquarters have been too lenient, and others say that the U.N. in New York too restrictive.
As early as March, when the virus spread uncontrollably through New York, Russia resisted plans to take the Security Council virtual, pressing for in-person meetings. In July, Germany used its presidency of the Security Council to hold the first in-person meetings since the pandemic shut down its on-site operations, though meetings had strict limits on the number of attendees.
Before the U.N. General Assembly’s annual September session, the president of the assembly, Volkan Bozkir of Turkey, urged the city and state to allow foreign leaders to attend the meeting without having to be quarantined. But U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres nixed the idea of inviting world leaders to New York, warning governments in a letter that it would be unsafe to meet in person—and the session went ahead virtually.
Bozkir is trying again, recently telling colleagues he wants New York’s two-week quarantine order for international visitors waived to allow foreign leaders to travel to New York for a meeting on the pandemic in December, according to diplomatic sources.
But that seems unlikely. Earlier this month, the U.S. Mission to the United Nations informed the U.N. and foreign delegates that a 14-day quarantine had been reduced to four days, as long as the visitor was found to test negative in two separate tests. Even that truncated quarantine is unlikely to lure world leaders to New York just to spend four days trapped in their hotel rooms.
In Geneva, things have been more relaxed—which has also drawn plenty of criticism.
As the virus abated over the summer, the Geneva headquarters began preparations to gradually reopen its doors, though not without resistance. In late May, a group of 25 member states—including India, China, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—wrote a joint letter to Valovaya expressing concerns about plans to convene in-person meetings at the Palais, including the U.N. Human Rights Council session from June 15 to 23. “[I]t is our view that an in-person meeting commencing in mid-June puts our staff at potential risk especially given the transmission rate in Geneva,” the letter, which was obtained by Foreign Policy, read.
The U.N. pressed ahead with in-person meetings, allowing up to 30 percent of staff to begin returning to their offices on June 8, and organizing in-person conferences with reduced participation on human rights and disarmament the following weeks. It also secured agreement from the Swiss government to invite peace delegations from Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
One senior diplomat voiced sympathy for the U.N., saying it has to balance conflicting pressure from governments that want to do more at the headquarters and others that want to do less. In the end, the diplomat said, “they follow the rules that the Swiss put in place and allow those who want to do more within the rules to do more within rules.”
Switzerland’s U.N. ambassador, Jürg Lauber, said that the United Nations and other international agencies in Geneva had most staff working from home and most meetings in virtual formats. “At the same time, great efforts have been undertaken by the permanent missions and international organizations to maintain business continuity and fulfill their respective mandates, which are as important as ever, if not more so, under the current circumstances,” Lauber said.
And U.N. officials in Geneva say the organization has been scrupulous in its efforts to ensure the safety of workers and foreign delegates. They noted that none of the infections were spread on the U.N. premises but were contracted by staff in social settings outside the headquarters, where the disease is spreading rapidly.
“The Palais is probably the safest place in Geneva,” said David Chikvaidze, Valovaya’s chief of staff, with only about 18 percent of staff on site and about 200 hand sanitizers available.
The U.N. doesn’t keep track of infections at government missions in Geneva, but the virus has led to a small new outbreak at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in Geneva, which had grappled with infections in March and this summer, according to two senior diplomatic sources. At least two Western ambassadors have been infected, and the driver of the late Ugandan ambassador died of COVID-19, those officials said.
One U.N. official blamed the spike on the Swiss authorities, saying they reopened the country too quickly. “They opened up not only restaurants and bars, but discotheques, legalized prostitution, and tattoo parlors,” said one U.N. official. “We were walking around in our regimented lines in the Palais while people outside on the lake were sitting huddled in groups, drinking beer with no social distancing.”
Today, though, the city of Geneva has cracked down, imposing a wide series of restrictions in November that limit most gatherings to five people. Switzerland is on pace to become a major European COVID-19 hotspot, with a positivity rate of 28 percent as of late October, compared to just 3 percent in New York.
That’s why many question the wisdom of hosting Afghan and Syria talks. In August, four members of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, which includes representatives of the government and opposition groups, tested positive for COVID-19 upon arrival in Geneva for talks. The U.N.’s special envoy, Geir Pedersen of Norway, has been keen to keep the talks on track.
The Syria talks still require approval by Swiss authorities. If they go ahead, the U.N. will impose stringent health measures that go beyond recommendations from the Swiss government and the World Health Organization, said Jenifer Fenton, the chief spokesperson for the U.N. special envoy for Syria.
“The safety and security of our staff will always be our top priority and concern,” she said in an email statement. Health protocols, she added, include testing, the mandatory wearing of masks at all times, temperature checks, and strict physical distancing. “Advancing the political process has proven to be extremely challenging, and the Special Envoy recognizes our obligation to seize on whatever small window of opportunity may present itself to achieve meaningful progress,” she added.
“I think the meeting makes no sense,” said the senior diplomat. “If there is some reasonable expectation or belief that some form of meaningful progress will take place because this meeting is being held then sure, have the meeting. But no one has suggested to me that something is going to happen.”
Alessandra Vellucci, the chief spokesperson for the U.N. in Geneva, said that there is currently a cap of five people for meetings in the Palais. And even though the Swiss government has authorized the U.N. to convene special political meetings for up to 50 individuals, she said that the Afghan talks later this month are likely to have only 30 to 40 attendees in person, with the rest participating virtually.
“It is important for us to strike a balance between these critical political activities that are at the core of U.N. Geneva, with the absolute priority of safeguarding the health and safety of the staff and delegates, which is why we take extraordinary precautions and work in constant contact and full cooperation with the Swiss authorities,” Vellucci said.
And U.N. officials moving ahead with plans for in-person peace talks can point to some concrete achievements: In September, Yemen’s government and Houthi insurgents agreed to a mass prisoner swap, and last month Geneva was the site of a truce among Libya’s warring factions.
A harder sell might be the cultural events the headquarters has held, including a Russian chess exhibition featuring the Russian grandmaster Anatoly Karpov, a Russian photographic exhibit for TASS news agency, and an exhibit of traditional Moldovan carpets and costumes, and art show.
“Amid the doom and gloom a couple of events, combined with masks and social distancing, was it so bad to do something to raise morale?” Chikvaidze said. “We planned this before the situation went south. We didn’t pull the plug, but we made sure it went off without a hitch.”


foreignpolicy--2020-11-13--Trump’s Argentine Plan for Transition Sabotage

What might a rocky transition of power in the United States look like in the weeks ahead ?
What can President Donald Trump do to harm the United States on his way out of the White House ?
Might he actually retire to his many golf resorts or lay the ground to run again for president in 2024 ?
These are all questions Americans and people around the world are weighing as former Vice President Joseph Biden ’ s victory in the 2020 U.S. presidential election appears all but locked up .
But with no examples of a modern U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is instructive to look beyond the United States ’ borders for answers .
Argentina ’ s 2015 presidential transition from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to Mauricio Macri offers some hints of what might be coming .
From last-minute government spending to bitter court battles , the outcome isn ’ t pretty .
Like Trump , Fernández de Kirchner was a fiery , outspoken , populist president who was beloved by her supporters .
And like Trump , Fernández de Kirchner was quick to demonize foreign powers .
But in her case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States that she saw as the source for Argentina ’ s economic woes , calling U.S. hedge funds “ vulture funds ” for profiting from buying Argentina ’ s national bonds at distressed prices .
Unlike Trump , however , Fernández de Kirchner handily won the popular vote in Argentina ’ s general elections , both in 2007 and 2011 .
By 2015 , she was constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term , but to cement her legacy , she handpicked Daniel Scioli as her successor to run for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party alliance .
After Scioli lost narrowly to Macri in a runoff election , he and the ruling party conceded defeat .
But Fernández de Kirchner did everything in her power to make the transition of power as messy as possible .
In the weeks before she left in office , Fernández de Kirchner controversially signed a string of new decrees that diverted billions of dollars in funds out of federal government control for the coming year and sunk Argentina ’ s already burdened central reserves to dangerously low levels .
Some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in public institutions , such as the Central Bank , initially refused to resign .
Macri said that his meeting with Fernández de Kirchner after the election , a traditional discussion between the incoming and outgoing presidents to plan the transition , was “ worthless.
” On the international stage , as the 2015 general election was heading to a runoff , Fernández de Kirchner greenlighted the signing of $ 15 billion in loans from China to build two nuclear power plants .
After Macri won , Fernández de Kirchner ’ s Ministry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ documents with the incoming government outlining the terms of some of the country ’ s multibillion infrastructure deals with Chinese state-owned banks .
Fernández de Kirchner even went ahead with appointing new ambassadors .
All this laid a minefield for Macri to undo at home and abroad upon entering office .
Fernández de Kirchner and Macri also feuded over protocol for the inauguration , to the point that Macri obtained a court order ruling the exact hour when Fernández de Kirchner ’ s term ended so that she had no authority over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to participate , making her the first outgoing president since 1983 not to pass a ceremonial baton and place a sash on her successor .
This is only a symbolic gesture that demonstrates the peaceful transfer of power to the country .
But it holds particular importance for Argentina and its history of military dictatorship .
On her final night in office , Fernández de Kirchner led a massive rally , calling on her supporters to take to the streets to voice any anger they held towards Macri .
In one of her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hand over the official presidential Twitter account .
Argentina ’ s shaky transition of power offers some lessons for the United States .
In the weeks ahead , members of Biden ’ s team should be wary of focusing too much attention on how they intend to shape domestic and foreign policy in the years to come .
Instead , they should stay clear-eyed about the here and now , and what they can do to limit attempts by the Trump administration to block or frustrate entry into the White House , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about what the Trump administration was up to .
In Argentina , despite the quarrels between Fernández de Kirchner and Macri , outgoing cabinet ministers met with their successors to plan the transition .
The unconventional transition to come in the United States demands that unconventional methods be taken by those that prioritize national stability over political creed .
Trump and his supporters in the Republican Party might also glean something from Argentina ’ s transition .
Fernández de Kirchner ’ s recalcitrance in leaving office was broadly seen as paving the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had her eyes on the presidency , and after sitting out a term , the Argentine Constitution did not prohibit her from trying again .
Fernández de Kirchner stayed in the public eye after leaving office and remained a political thorn in the side of Macri ’ s government .
Two years after leaving the presidency , she returned to the political stage after winning a Senate seat .
But a judicial probe charging that her administration took bribes from construction companies in exchange for public works contracts tarnished her reputation over time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a political witch hunt .
Her fervent supporters rallied outside the courthouse , but despite maintaining a personality cult around her , after years in court she was deemed nonviable as a presidential candidate by the political alliance she once led .
Although Fernández de Kirchner eventually returned as vice president in Argentina ’ s current government , which ousted Macri from power last year , and some see her as the real power behind the throne , being second in command was not the position she coveted .
Some fear Fernández de @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to evade her corruption charges by steering through judicial reform , but the move has undermined the present government ’ s standing .
Like Fernández de Kirchner , Trump is already planning to hold post-election rallies , maintains a massive social media following on Twitter , and is musing about a 2024 presidential run .
Trump also faces legal troubles once he leaves office .
But if he continues to make moves that further destabilize U.S. politics , he may ultimately undermine his chances of returning to the White House one day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ popular vote at time of writing , but nearly 80 percent of Americans see Biden as the rightful winner of the election .
The writing is on the wall , but Trump was never a keen reader .
He may maintain a strong base to push him to the top of a future Republican primary , but if Trump ’ s last days in office become completely unhinged , his ability to win the general election will diminish .
Argentina ’ s transition of power five years ago offers only imperfect answers for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After all , unlike Trump , Fernández de Kirchner and her party actually admitted defeat and left office .
With Trump , there is bound to be extreme turmoil ahead .
President or not , he will do everything in his power to stay in the limelight .
A tumultuous transition of power might continue as everyday politics for years to come .

What might a rocky transition of power in the United States look like in the weeks ahead? What can President Donald Trump do to harm the United States on his way out of the White House? Might he actually retire to his many golf resorts or lay the ground to run again for president in 2024? These are all questions Americans and people around the world are weighing as former Vice President Joseph Biden’s victory in the 2020 U.S. presidential election appears all but locked up.
What might a rocky transition of power in the United States look like in the weeks ahead? What can President Donald Trump do to harm the United States on his way out of the White House? Might he actually retire to his many golf resorts or lay the ground to run again for president in 2024? These are all questions Americans and people around the world are weighing as former Vice President Joseph Biden’s victory in the 2020 U.S. presidential election appears all but locked up.
But with no examples of a modern U.S. president refusing a smooth transition of power, it is instructive to look beyond the United States’ borders for answers. Argentina’s 2015 presidential transition from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to Mauricio Macri offers some hints of what might be coming. From last-minute government spending to bitter court battles, the outcome isn’t pretty.
Like Trump, Fernández de Kirchner was a fiery, outspoken, populist president who was beloved by her supporters. And like Trump, Fernández de Kirchner was quick to demonize foreign powers. But in her case, instead of China, it was the United States that she saw as the source for Argentina’s economic woes, calling U.S. hedge funds “vulture funds” for profiting from buying Argentina’s national bonds at distressed prices.
Unlike Trump, however, Fernández de Kirchner handily won the popular vote in Argentina’s general elections, both in 2007 and 2011. By 2015, she was constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, but to cement her legacy, she handpicked Daniel Scioli as her successor to run for president for the ruling Front for Victory party alliance. After Scioli lost narrowly to Macri in a runoff election, he and the ruling party conceded defeat. But Fernández de Kirchner did everything in her power to make the transition of power as messy as possible.
In the weeks before she left in office, Fernández de Kirchner controversially signed a string of new decrees that diverted billions of dollars in funds out of federal government control for the coming year and sunk Argentina’s already burdened central reserves to dangerously low levels. Some of Fernández de Kirchner’s political appointees in public institutions, such as the Central Bank, initially refused to resign. Macri said that his meeting with Fernández de Kirchner after the election, a traditional discussion between the incoming and outgoing presidents to plan the transition, was “worthless.”
On the international stage, as the 2015 general election was heading to a runoff, Fernández de Kirchner greenlighted the signing of $15 billion in loans from China to build two nuclear power plants. After Macri won, Fernández de Kirchner’s Ministry of Federal Planning then failed to share documents with the incoming government outlining the terms of some of the country’s multibillion infrastructure deals with Chinese state-owned banks. Fernández de Kirchner even went ahead with appointing new ambassadors. All this laid a minefield for Macri to undo at home and abroad upon entering office.
Fernández de Kirchner and Macri also feuded over protocol for the inauguration, to the point that Macri obtained a court order ruling the exact hour when Fernández de Kirchner’s term ended so that she had no authority over the ceremony. Fernández de Kirchner eventually refused to participate, making her the first outgoing president since 1983 not to pass a ceremonial baton and place a sash on her successor. This is only a symbolic gesture that demonstrates the peaceful transfer of power to the country. But it holds particular importance for Argentina and its history of military dictatorship. On her final night in office, Fernández de Kirchner led a massive rally, calling on her supporters to take to the streets to voice any anger they held towards Macri. In one of her final acts of defiance, she refused to hand over the official presidential Twitter account.
Argentina’s shaky transition of power offers some lessons for the United States. In the weeks ahead, members of Biden’s team should be wary of focusing too much attention on how they intend to shape domestic and foreign policy in the years to come. Instead, they should stay clear-eyed about the here and now, and what they can do to limit attempts by the Trump administration to block or frustrate entry into the White House, or to gain full access to information about what the Trump administration was up to. In Argentina, despite the quarrels between Fernández de Kirchner and Macri, outgoing cabinet ministers met with their successors to plan the transition. The unconventional transition to come in the United States demands that unconventional methods be taken by those that prioritize national stability over political creed.
Trump and his supporters in the Republican Party might also glean something from Argentina’s transition. Fernández de Kirchner’s recalcitrance in leaving office was broadly seen as paving the way for her political return. She still had her eyes on the presidency, and after sitting out a term, the Argentine Constitution did not prohibit her from trying again.
Fernández de Kirchner stayed in the public eye after leaving office and remained a political thorn in the side of Macri’s government. Two years after leaving the presidency, she returned to the political stage after winning a Senate seat. But a judicial probe charging that her administration took bribes from construction companies in exchange for public works contracts tarnished her reputation over time. The ex-president called the legal proceedings a political witch hunt. Her fervent supporters rallied outside the courthouse, but despite maintaining a personality cult around her, after years in court she was deemed nonviable as a presidential candidate by the political alliance she once led.
Although Fernández de Kirchner eventually returned as vice president in Argentina’s current government, which ousted Macri from power last year, and some see her as the real power behind the throne, being second in command was not the position she coveted. Some fear Fernández de Kirchner is using her return to power to evade her corruption charges by steering through judicial reform, but the move has undermined the present government’s standing.
Like Fernández de Kirchner, Trump is already planning to hold post-election rallies, maintains a massive social media following on Twitter, and is musing about a 2024 presidential run. Trump also faces legal troubles once he leaves office. But if he continues to make moves that further destabilize U.S. politics, he may ultimately undermine his chances of returning to the White House one day. Trump won nearly 48 percent of the popular vote at time of writing, but nearly 80 percent of Americans see Biden as the rightful winner of the election. The writing is on the wall, but Trump was never a keen reader. He may maintain a strong base to push him to the top of a future Republican primary, but if Trump’s last days in office become completely unhinged, his ability to win the general election will diminish.
Argentina’s transition of power five years ago offers only imperfect answers for what comes next in the United States. After all, unlike Trump, Fernández de Kirchner and her party actually admitted defeat and left office. With Trump, there is bound to be extreme turmoil ahead. President or not, he will do everything in his power to stay in the limelight. A tumultuous transition of power might continue as everyday politics for years to come.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-13--As War in Ethiopia Rages, Reports of Massacres in Tigray Emerge

As War in Ethiopia Rages , Reports of Massacres in Tigray Emerge Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Amnesty International reports a massacre in Tigray , at least 76 people die in a shipwreck off the coast of Libya , and French President Emmanuel Macron wants France involved in Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Little more than a week has gone by since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a “ military confrontation ” in the country ’ s northern Tigray region and the death toll is likely already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including internet , have been cut in the region , making it difficult for foreign observers to understand what is happening on the ground .
Human rights group Amnesty International has made one of the first attempts to shed light on conditions in Tigray when it reported the details of a mass killing on the scale of “ scores , and likely hundreds.
” Deprose Muchena , Amnesty International ’ s Director for East and Southern Africa confirmed “ the massacre of a very large number of civilians , who appear to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involved in the ongoing military offensive.
” Amnesty has not made a judgement on which group was responsible for the killings , although they cite eyewitness accounts placing the blame on the Tigray People ’ s Liberation Front ( TPLF ) , the ruling party in Tigray and up until Abiy ’ s ascent , the dominant party in Ethiopia ’ s government .
A humanitarian crisis .
Faced with such violence , alongside the threat of airstrikes from Ethiopia ’ s military , a refugee crisis is beginning to take shape .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ so far , while the United Nations has warned that roadblocks in and out of Tigray mean aid operations are stifled and basic commodities risk running out .
African Balkanization ?
Writing in 2019 , Florian Bieber and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu warned Abiy ’ s government not to make the same mistakes as those that beset the former Yugoslavia as competing ethnic groups struggled for power , leading to the fragmentation of a federal state .
“ The Yugoslav scenario is not destined to repeat in Ethiopia , ” they wrote , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ During moments of political liberalization , ethnonational federal systems are particularly combustible.
” Disaster in the Mediterranean .
At least 74 people died on Thursday in a shipwreck off the coast of Libya while trying to reach Europe , the eighth shipwreck involving migrants in the past six weeks , according to the International Organization for Migration .
IOM reports that 796 people have died trying to make the crossing in 2020 alone .
“ The mounting loss of life in the Mediterranean is a manifestation of the inability of states to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dedicated search and rescue capacity in the deadliest sea-crossing in the world , ” said Federico Soda , IOM ’ s Libya chief of mission .
France wants a role in Nagorno-Karabakh talks .
A Russian delegation will meet with their Turkish counterparts in Ankara today as the two sides discuss the new facts on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh following a Russian-brokered peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia largely seen as a surrender by the Armenian side .
Under the terms of the deal , Russian peacekeepers will replace Armenian forces in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run a joint observation center .
The meeting comes as French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his interest in joining any future peace talks , while also reiterating his support for embattled Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan .
ASEAN meets .
The 37th annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) meeting begins today .
Although host Vietnam has maintained one of the lowest coronavirus caseloads in the world , the event will be taking place online .
On Sunday , ASEAN leaders—along with Australia , China , India , Japan , New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eight years of negotiations by signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ( RCEP ) trade deal , which aims to lower tariffs and set common rules on intellectual property and e-commerce among the signatories .
Cummings is going .
Dominic Cummings , British Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s most senior advisor , will leave his post by the end of this year , according to a reporting by the BBC .
If Cummings does follow through , he would be the second figure from the Vote Leave campaign to leave Johnson ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Downing Street communications director , resigned earlier this week .
Xi ’ s economy .
Chinese President Xi Jinping personally had a hand in halting the world ’ s largest initial public offering before it could go to market , according to a report in the Wall Street Journal .
Xi was reportedly displeased with remarks made by Jack Ma , China ’ s richest man and the majority shareholder in Ant Group , whose IPO on the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges was expected to raise $ 34 billion .
Ma @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for stifling entrepreneurship when he spoke at a conference in late October .
Measles roaring back .
A study from the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found that the incidence of measles worldwide reached a 23-year high in 2019 .
The number of people dying from the disease was also 50 percent higher than it was just three years before .
Just nine countries—Central African Republic , the Democratic Republic of Congo , Georgia , Kazakhstan , Madagascar , North Macedonia , Samoa , Tonga @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The study ’ s authors blame years of poor vaccination regimes .
FP Conference Call—Join Editor in Chief Jonathan Tepperman and guests Edward Luce , U.S. national editor and columnist at the Financial Times , and Kori Schake , director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute , today , Friday , at 1 p.m. EST for a wide-ranging discussion on the foreign-policy implications of Joe Biden ’ s victory .
Register here .
Although he is weeks away from taking office , U.S. favorability around the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A recent Morning Consult poll found that views of the United States have shifted following the Nov. 3 election .
The biggest swings were seen in Germany and France : 32 percent of Germans now see the United States more favorably , an increase of 16 points , while France also saw a 16 point increase , from 25 percent to a 41 percent favorability .
However , it ’ s not all positive : Russia and China now see the United States in a worse light since the election , with U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 6 points in China .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Amnesty International reports a massacre in Tigray , at least 76 people die in a shipwreck off the coast of Libya , and French President Emmanuel Macron wants France involved in Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Amnesty International reports a massacre in Tigray, at least 76 people die in a shipwreck off the coast of Libya, and French President Emmanuel Macron wants France involved in Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Ethiopia War Risks Becoming the World’s Next Refugee Crisis
Little more than a week has gone by since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a “military confrontation” in the country’s northern Tigray region and the death toll is likely already in the hundreds. All communication lines, including internet, have been cut in the region, making it difficult for foreign observers to understand what is happening on the ground.
Human rights group Amnesty International has made one of the first attempts to shed light on conditions in Tigray when it reported the details of a mass killing on the scale of “scores, and likely hundreds.”
Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa confirmed “the massacre of a very large number of civilians, who appear to have been day labourers in no way involved in the ongoing military offensive.” Amnesty has not made a judgement on which group was responsible for the killings, although they cite eyewitness accounts placing the blame on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in Tigray and up until Abiy’s ascent, the dominant party in Ethiopia’s government.
A humanitarian crisis. Faced with such violence, alongside the threat of airstrikes from Ethiopia’s military, a refugee crisis is beginning to take shape. Neighboring Sudan has taken in 11,000 refugees so far, while the United Nations has warned that roadblocks in and out of Tigray mean aid operations are stifled and basic commodities risk running out.
African Balkanization? Writing in 2019, Florian Bieber and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu warned Abiy’s government not to make the same mistakes as those that beset the former Yugoslavia as competing ethnic groups struggled for power, leading to the fragmentation of a federal state. “The Yugoslav scenario is not destined to repeat in Ethiopia,” they wrote, “but it offers a cautionary tale: During moments of political liberalization, ethnonational federal systems are particularly combustible.”
What We’re Following Today
Disaster in the Mediterranean. At least 74 people died on Thursday in a shipwreck off the coast of Libya while trying to reach Europe, the eighth shipwreck involving migrants in the past six weeks, according to the International Organization for Migration. IOM reports that 796 people have died trying to make the crossing in 2020 alone. “The mounting loss of life in the Mediterranean is a manifestation of the inability of states to take decisive action to redeploy much needed, dedicated search and rescue capacity in the deadliest sea-crossing in the world,” said Federico Soda, IOM’s Libya chief of mission.
France wants a role in Nagorno-Karabakh talks. A Russian delegation will meet with their Turkish counterparts in Ankara today as the two sides discuss the new facts on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh following a Russian-brokered peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia largely seen as a surrender by the Armenian side. Under the terms of the deal, Russian peacekeepers will replace Armenian forces in the region, while Russia and Turkey will run a joint observation center. The meeting comes as French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his interest in joining any future peace talks, while also reiterating his support for embattled Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
ASEAN meets. The 37th annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting begins today. Although host Vietnam has maintained one of the lowest coronavirus caseloads in the world, the event will be taking place online. On Sunday, ASEAN leaders—along with Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea—are expected to conclude eight years of negotiations by signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal, which aims to lower tariffs and set common rules on intellectual property and e-commerce among the signatories.
Keep an Eye On
Cummings is going. Dominic Cummings, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s most senior advisor, will leave his post by the end of this year, according to a reporting by the BBC. If Cummings does follow through, he would be the second figure from the Vote Leave campaign to leave Johnson’s side after Lee Cain, the Downing Street communications director, resigned earlier this week.
Xi’s economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping personally had a hand in halting the world’s largest initial public offering before it could go to market, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. Xi was reportedly displeased with remarks made by Jack Ma, China’s richest man and the majority shareholder in Ant Group, whose IPO on the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges was expected to raise $34 billion. Ma had criticized China’s regulatory environment for stifling entrepreneurship when he spoke at a conference in late October.
Measles roaring back. A study from the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found that the incidence of measles worldwide reached a 23-year high in 2019. The number of people dying from the disease was also 50 percent higher than it was just three years before. Just nine countries—Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Madagascar, North Macedonia, Samoa, Tonga, and Ukraine—represent 73 percent of cases. The study’s authors blame years of poor vaccination regimes.
FP Conference Call—Join Editor in Chief Jonathan Tepperman and guests Edward Luce, U.S. national editor and columnist at the Financial Times, and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, today, Friday, at 1 p.m. EST for a wide-ranging discussion on the foreign-policy implications of Joe Biden’s victory. Register here.
Odds and Ends Although he is weeks away from taking office, U.S. favorability around the world is already experiencing a Biden bump. A recent Morning Consult poll found that views of the United States have shifted following the Nov. 3 election. The biggest swings were seen in Germany and France: 32 percent of Germans now see the United States more favorably, an increase of 16 points, while France also saw a 16 point increase, from 25 percent to a 41 percent favorability. However, it’s not all positive: Russia and China now see the United States in a worse light since the election, with U.S. favorability declining 7 points in Russia and by 6 points in China.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


America’s Democracy Demotion

Donald Trump is trying to steal the U.S. presidential election .
Having laid the foundation for this strategy during his reelection campaign , when he deliberately undermined popular confidence in the polls , he is now claiming to have won despite having lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College by substantial margins .
Refusing to concede is the tip of the iceberg .
Much more worrying are deliberate efforts to prevent a smooth transition to Joe Biden ’ s administration while Trump acolytes invent spurious legal cases and mobilize supporters for a “ total war ” against the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first leader to do this , and he won ’ t be the last .
But he may be the leader who has received the least international pushback .
For the most part , neither world leaders nor the pro-democracy organizations that support elections around the world have spoken out to condemn his actions .
In some cases , leaders appear to lack the courage of their convictions and are afraid to stand up to the so-called leader of the free world .
In others , this apprehension may be mixed with partisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the International Republican Institute ( IRI ) , an officially nonpartisan organization dedicated to advancing freedom and democracy worldwide , which used to be chaired by Sen. John McCain and is now chaired by Sen. Dan Sullivan .
This failure to call Trump out for what he is—a sore loser and an angry autocrat—is dangerous .
The silence of his fellow Republicans lends credibility to his statements and emboldens his cronies .
Against this backdrop , the lack of international criticism helps to sustain the idea that the president is simply “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ similar way to the legal battles that followed the George W. Bush versus Al Gore election in 2000 .
In reality , when Trump demands that legally cast ballots should not be counted he is not simply seeking to work through democratic institutions but rather to pressure them into making undemocratic decisions .
Following Nigeria ’ s flawed 2007 polls—which were so marred by fraud that some commentators refused to refer to them as elections at all—IRI announced that the elections had failed to meet international standards .
Summarizing these failings , then-IRI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Affairs Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health that “ Rather than serve as an example of democratic sustainability on the continent , the Nigerian government oversaw a broken electoral process that allowed the election to be stolen from the Nigerian people.
” In many cases , though , fine words are not enough .
When Laurent Gbagbo , then the president of Ivory Coast , rejected election defeat in 2010 , he followed many of the same strategies currently being used by Trump .
During the election , Gbagbo accused the opposition of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victory would be the only legitimate outcome .
Once the Electoral Commission announced that opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara had won , Gbagbo pressured the Constitutional Council to reverse the Electoral Commission ’ s decision .
Gbagbo ’ s moves in 2010 brought international condemnation from the United States , the European Union , the United Nations , and a range of other countries and multinational bodies .
Not only did these governments demand that the election result be honored , but French troops and U.N. peacekeepers actually supported forces loyal to Ouattara to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from power .
There are many cases in which international organizations have intervened before the results have been fully certified in order to dissuade a leader from undermining it .
Something very similar happened when President Yahya Jammeh tried to stay in power in Gambia after clearly losing the 2016 elections .
In that case , it was troops from the Economic Community of West African States , backed again by a broad international alliance—after the U.N. had intervened to insist that Jammeh must step down—that forced him to go by threatening to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s pro-democracy organizations might argue that they have not spoken yet because they are waiting for the official electoral process to play out—Trump has a right to go to the courts , and the system is strong enough to protect democracy against fraudulent legal challenges .
This may be true , but there are many cases in which international organizations have intervened before the results have been fully certified in order to dissuade a leader from undermining it .
Back in 2003 , IRI issued a preliminary statement about elections in the Republic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too early to definitively judge these elections ” but nonetheless made it clear that , “ Sadly , the Georgian government and the Central Election Commission ( CEC ) did not diligently train the local election commissions and produced a seriously flawed list of registered voters .
Their poor performance has generated a great deal of confusion and anxiety among voters.
” In all of these examples and many more besides , the U.S. and international organizations publicly called for democracy and the election result to be respected .
Most of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the European Union to the United Nations , have been silent .
Although the Carter Center circulated a tweet from former U.S. President Jimmy Carter in which he offered his congratulations to the Biden team , the center ’ s official statement simply asked “ both presidential candidates and Democrat and Republican party leaders to call for calm and patience.
” Meanwhile , IRI has spent the last few days tweeting about its work in Taiwan , Malaysia , Iraq , Peru , Ecuador , North Macedonia , and many other countries—simply ignoring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , although a small number of prominent Republican leaders have used their voice to recognize Biden ’ s victory and ward off the threat of manipulation , most notably former President George W. Bush and Sen. Mitt Romney , the vast majority have not .
This isn ’ t just about partisanship , though ; it is also about the fact that neither U.S. nor international organizations wish to get drawn into the mudslinging between the Trump and Biden camps .
As a result , the National Democratic Institute—the Democratic Party ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Although its president , Derek Mitchell , recently acknowledged that the U.S. election is important for global democracy , as “ many countries look to the United States as a touchstone of democratic practice , ” his organization has not explicitly called out Trump for undermining American democracy .
So while some of the employees of these organizations are privately critical of Trump ’ s actions and have contributed to cross-partisan efforts to protect American democracy—such as the National Task Force on Election Crises—their institutions are sitting on the fence .
In many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a position have failed to do so .
When put on the spot in recent television interviews , British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab both failed to condemn Trump ’ s actions—a failure that the Labour Party ’ s shadow foreign secretary , Lisa Nandy , branded as “ shameful ” and “ deeply shocking.
” The one exception has been the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe , which deployed observers ahead of the poll and concluded that the “ baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies , notably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election night , harm public trust in democratic institutions.
” But the OSCE ’ s powerful public critique has been weakened by the failure of other organizations to echo its sentiments .
This silence has implications for the protection of democracy around the world .
The next set of international statements questioning the quality of elections in Africa , Latin America , and Asia are likely to be met with growing suspicion and charges of hypocrisy—in part because many citizens and opposition leaders in these countries already believe that the international community picks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democracy based on its own self-interest .
Domestically , the failure of Republican leaders and pro-democracy organizations to speak out has ceded political space to the Trump camp to push its unfounded claims of electoral manipulation .
In turn , this will fuel right-wing conspiracy theories—including the belief that the Republican party was somehow cheated—that are likely to serve as the basis for further attacks on U.S. democracy in the years to come .
The erosion of democracy in a country like the United States requires two things : the abuse of power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supposed democrats to stand up and be counted .
Republicans in the United States and Conservatives in Britain who value the rule of law should recall the words of the famous conservative , Edmund Burke : “ When bad men combine , the good must associate ; else they will fall , one by one , an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle .
”

Donald Trump is trying to steal the U.S. presidential election. Having laid the foundation for this strategy during his reelection campaign , when he deliberately undermined popular confidence in the polls, he is now claiming to have won despite having lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College by substantial margins.
Donald Trump is trying to steal the U.S. presidential election. Having laid the foundation for this strategy during his reelection campaign, when he deliberately undermined popular confidence in the polls, he is now claiming to have won despite having lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College by substantial margins.
Refusing to concede is the tip of the iceberg. Much more worrying are deliberate efforts to prevent a smooth transition to Joe Biden’s administration while Trump acolytes invent spurious legal cases and mobilize supporters for a “total war” against the election results.
Trump is not the first leader to do this, and he won’t be the last. But he may be the leader who has received the least international pushback. For the most part, neither world leaders nor the pro-democracy organizations that support elections around the world have spoken out to condemn his actions.
In some cases, leaders appear to lack the courage of their convictions and are afraid to stand up to the so-called leader of the free world. In others, this apprehension may be mixed with partisan loyalties—as with the silence of bodies such as the International Republican Institute (IRI), an officially nonpartisan organization dedicated to advancing freedom and democracy worldwide, which used to be chaired by Sen. John McCain and is now chaired by Sen. Dan Sullivan.
While some officials at these pro-democracy groups offered congratulations to Biden—and IRI President Daniel Twining said his organization was looking forward to working with the new administration—the institutions they represent have not formally denounced Trump’s denialism and obstruction of an orderly transition.
This failure to call Trump out for what he is—a sore loser and an angry autocrat—is dangerous. The silence of his fellow Republicans lends credibility to his statements and emboldens his cronies. Against this backdrop, the lack of international criticism helps to sustain the idea that the president is simply “working through the system” in a similar way to the legal battles that followed the George W. Bush versus Al Gore election in 2000.
In reality, when Trump demands that legally cast ballots should not be counted he is not simply seeking to work through democratic institutions but rather to pressure them into making undemocratic decisions.
When a leader seeks to rig an election or refuses to leave office having clearly lost one, the international community has a number of tools that it uses to pry them out. The most obvious is to embarrass them by exposing and calling out electoral manipulation.
Following Nigeria’s flawed 2007 polls—which were so marred by fraud that some commentators refused to refer to them as elections at all—IRI announced that the elections had failed to meet international standards. Summarizing these failings, then-IRI President Lorne Craner told the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health that “Rather than serve as an example of democratic sustainability on the continent, the Nigerian government oversaw a broken electoral process that allowed the election to be stolen from the Nigerian people.”
In many cases, though, fine words are not enough. When Laurent Gbagbo, then the president of Ivory Coast, rejected election defeat in 2010, he followed many of the same strategies currently being used by Trump. During the election, Gbagbo accused the opposition of rigging the polls, implying that his victory would be the only legitimate outcome. Once the Electoral Commission announced that opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara had won, Gbagbo pressured the Constitutional Council to reverse the Electoral Commission’s decision.
Gbagbo’s moves in 2010 brought international condemnation from the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and a range of other countries and multinational bodies. Not only did these governments demand that the election result be honored, but French troops and U.N. peacekeepers actually supported forces loyal to Ouattara to find and arrest Gbagbo, forcing him from power.
There are many cases in which international organizations have intervened before the results have been fully certified in order to dissuade a leader from undermining it.
Something very similar happened when President Yahya Jammeh tried to stay in power in Gambia after clearly losing the 2016 elections. In that case, it was troops from the Economic Community of West African States, backed again by a broad international alliance—after the U.N. had intervened to insist that Jammeh must step down—that forced him to go by threatening to invade the country.
The world’s pro-democracy organizations might argue that they have not spoken yet because they are waiting for the official electoral process to play out—Trump has a right to go to the courts, and the system is strong enough to protect democracy against fraudulent legal challenges. This may be true, but there are many cases in which international organizations have intervened before the results have been fully certified in order to dissuade a leader from undermining it.
Back in 2003, IRI issued a preliminary statement about elections in the Republic of Georgia that noted it was “too early to definitively judge these elections” but nonetheless made it clear that, “Sadly, the Georgian government and the Central Election Commission (CEC) did not diligently train the local election commissions and produced a seriously flawed list of registered voters. Their poor performance has generated a great deal of confusion and anxiety among voters.”
In all of these examples and many more besides, the U.S. and international organizations publicly called for democracy and the election result to be respected.
The contrast between those episodes and the international and domestic response to Trump’s anti-democratic antics could not be greater. Even though the vast majority of the president’s accusations of vote-rigging have been proved false, and even though Donald Trump Jr. is actively attempting to mobilize “able-bodied people” to form an “army” to ensure his father’s victory, there has been remarkably little criticism.
Most of the world’s leading pro-democratic bodies, from the European Union to the United Nations, have been silent. Although the Carter Center circulated a tweet from former U.S. President Jimmy Carter in which he offered his congratulations to the Biden team, the center’s official statement simply asked “both presidential candidates and Democrat and Republican party leaders to call for calm and patience.” Meanwhile, IRI has spent the last few days tweeting about its work in Taiwan, Malaysia, Iraq, Peru, Ecuador, North Macedonia, and many other countries—simply ignoring the dire situation back home.
Similarly, although a small number of prominent Republican leaders have used their voice to recognize Biden’s victory and ward off the threat of manipulation, most notably former President George W. Bush and Sen. Mitt Romney, the vast majority have not.
This isn’t just about partisanship, though; it is also about the fact that neither U.S. nor international organizations wish to get drawn into the mudslinging between the Trump and Biden camps. As a result, the National Democratic Institute—the Democratic Party’s counterpart to IRI—has also been quiet. Although its president, Derek Mitchell, recently acknowledged that the U.S. election is important for global democracy, as “many countries look to the United States as a touchstone of democratic practice,” his organization has not explicitly called out Trump for undermining American democracy.
So while some of the employees of these organizations are privately critical of Trump’s actions and have contributed to cross-partisan efforts to protect American democracy—such as the National Task Force on Election Crises—their institutions are sitting on the fence.
In many cases, even those pushed to take a position have failed to do so. When put on the spot in recent television interviews, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab both failed to condemn Trump’s actions—a failure that the Labour Party’s shadow foreign secretary, Lisa Nandy, branded as “shameful” and “deeply shocking.”
The one exception has been the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which deployed observers ahead of the poll and concluded that the “baseless allegations of systematic deficiencies, notably by the incumbent president, including on election night, harm public trust in democratic institutions.” But the OSCE’s powerful public critique has been weakened by the failure of other organizations to echo its sentiments.
This silence has implications for the protection of democracy around the world. The next set of international statements questioning the quality of elections in Africa, Latin America, and Asia are likely to be met with growing suspicion and charges of hypocrisy—in part because many citizens and opposition leaders in these countries already believe that the international community picks and chooses when to stand up for democracy based on its own self-interest. Domestically, the failure of Republican leaders and pro-democracy organizations to speak out has ceded political space to the Trump camp to push its unfounded claims of electoral manipulation.
In turn, this will fuel right-wing conspiracy theories—including the belief that the Republican party was somehow cheated—that are likely to serve as the basis for further attacks on U.S. democracy in the years to come.
The erosion of democracy in a country like the United States requires two things: the abuse of power by aspiring dictators and the failure of supposed democrats to stand up and be counted. Republicans in the United States and Conservatives in Britain who value the rule of law should recall the words of the famous conservative, Edmund Burke: “When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
Update, Nov. 13, 2020: This article was updated to clarify that the International Republican Institute’s president extended his congratulations to President-elect Joe Biden on Nov. 8.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-13--Watch Out Wall Street: Biden May Be Coming for You

Watch Out Wall Street : Biden May Be Coming for You In a tumultuous 10 days in which U.S. President Donald Trump refused to concede to President-elect Joe Biden , paralyzed the presidential transition , purged the Pentagon , and washed his hands of the pandemic , very little about the future of American policy has become clear .
But one trend line may be clarifying itself : Biden ’ s willingness to strengthen the regulation of Wall Street in a perilous international financial environment .
He has convened a financial reform transition team led by Gary Gensler , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in public life from Wall Street employee and loyal acolyte of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin ( who deregulated Wall Street in the 1990s ) to one of the financial sector ’ s most threatening nemeses .
As head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) in the 2010s , Gensler implemented major new rules on derivatives trading around the world and strengthened the Dodd-Frank regulatory law that Trump has sought to weaken .
He also led the charge to toughen the so-called Volcker Rule seeking to bar banks from risky @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear that banks could evade it by shifting trading to their overseas operations .
“ He was deemed to be among the most progressive of the regulators , ” Michael Greenberger , a former CFTC official now at the University of Maryland , said of Gensler .
“ This task force is a pretty good signal.
” Gensler is joined by other prominent progressive voices , including Simon Johnson , the former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund and a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor who co-wrote the book 13 Bankers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big Wall Street banks , and Dennis Kelleher , the head of Better Markets , an advocacy group critical of the revolving door lobbying that let some of those responsible for disastrous deregulation return to power .
Also serving on the task force is Damon Silvers , a AFL-CIO attorney who fought hard after the financial crisis to toughen up Dodd-Frank restrictions on big banks .
Some financial reformers , such as former Biden aide Jeff Connaughton , said the selection of the task force clearly reflects the influence of the chief of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Ted Kaufman , who has also been a leading voice for Wall Street reform in the past .
Such transition review task forces are intended to be fairly technocratic , to provide incoming officials with a list of issues to focus on , but not to recommend policies .
That said , Gensler will almost certainly get a senior position in the new Biden administration , possibly as deputy treasury secretary under an equally progressive figure such as Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard , a leading candidate for the top Treasury post @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toward Wall Street , that could help to assuage angry progressives in his own party who believe that the anti-corporate proposals of Sens .
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have been given short shrift , Rolling back Trump ’ s deregulation of Wall Street will be a tough task—and the president ’ s not done yet .
In 2018 , Trump signed a bill rolling back some Dodd-Frank restrictions on bank lending , and he is trying to stock the Fed ’ s Board of Governors , which oversees financial regulation , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is expected to be confirmed by the Senate next week .
Since taking office , task force member Kelleher has written , “ the Trump administration has set about dismantling the core pillars of financial reform by : lowering banks ’ capital requirements , weakening stress testing and living wills , allowing more proprietary trading , enabling more unregulated derivatives dealing , rolling back consumer and investor protections , reducing prudential regulation of systemically significant banks , [ and ] neutering the regulation of systemically significant nonbanks and the shadow banking system.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House with Wall Street and adopted big finance ’ s priorities as this administration ’ s top priorities , ” Kelleher wrote last year in the American Prospect .
“ The critics of financial reform have claimed that the law and rules would kill banks ’ revenue and profits , which would prevent them from lending and would in turn kill economic growth and jobs .
In fact , in virtually every quarter since 2009 , including throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 , the biggest banks have recorded or eclipsed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Trump administration ’ s decision to deregulate important nonbanks , which do not take deposits and can engage in credit-card and lending services in an unregulated way , is especially significant , “ because it illustrates the Trump administration ’ s sheer recklessness.
” Kelleher , in an email on Thursday , said he would have no comment on his current role on the task force and its advice or influence , other than to say , “ Anyone who answers such questions at this point or in the near and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what they are talking about , no matter how confidently they speak !
” And despite the zeal of the task force , it ’ s not clear that even their desire to avoid the regulatory mistakes that fueled the 2008-2009 financial crisis will be enough to carry out root and branch reform , which would mainly require legislative and Fed reform .
Even so , Trump has sought to soften the rules of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau , which was created by Dodd-Frank , as well as capital requirements for banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the progressive Institute for New Economic Thinking , calls the Biden task force a “ real good group.
” But he then asked : “ What power will they really have … after the power of money bends the best designs in a self-interested direction ?
” Gensler was chief financial officer of Hillary Clinton ’ s presidential campaign , but he had little influence on policy there .
Even when he was first tapped to run the CFTC in 2009 , his Wall Street past tainted him in the eyes of progressives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hold on his nomination , and he was also criticized for his Goldman Sachs ties by then-Sen. Tom Harkin .
Even so , Gensler was more willing than some of his peers to admit that he made mistakes in letting Wall Street run amok by supporting the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act , which effectively deregulated the global market in over-the-counter derivatives .
“ Looking back now , it is clear to me that all of us—all of us that were involved at the time , and certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protect the American public through aggressive regulation , comprehensive regulation , ” Gensler said at his confirmation hearing in 2009 .
Now Wall Street banks and shadowy nonbanks have to confront the idea that one of their most zealous wardens could well up in a senior spot in the Biden administration .

In a tumultuous 10 days in which U.S. President Donald Trump refused to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, paralyzed the presidential transition, purged the Pentagon, and washed his hands of the pandemic, very little about the future of American policy has become clear.
In a tumultuous 10 days in which U.S. President Donald Trump refused to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, paralyzed the presidential transition, purged the Pentagon, and washed his hands of the pandemic, very little about the future of American policy has become clear.
But one trend line may be clarifying itself: Biden’s willingness to strengthen the regulation of Wall Street in a perilous international financial environment. He has convened a financial reform transition team led by Gary Gensler, an aggressive regulator who made a remarkable progression in public life from Wall Street employee and loyal acolyte of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (who deregulated Wall Street in the 1990s) to one of the financial sector’s most threatening nemeses.
As head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the 2010s, Gensler implemented major new rules on derivatives trading around the world and strengthened the Dodd-Frank regulatory law that Trump has sought to weaken. He also led the charge to toughen the so-called Volcker Rule seeking to bar banks from risky proprietary trading, especially when it became clear that banks could evade it by shifting trading to their overseas operations.
“He was deemed to be among the most progressive of the regulators,” Michael Greenberger, a former CFTC official now at the University of Maryland, said of Gensler. “This task force is a pretty good signal.”
Gensler is joined by other prominent progressive voices, including Simon Johnson, the former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund and a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor who co-wrote the book 13 Bankers, which called for a breakup of the big Wall Street banks, and Dennis Kelleher, the head of Better Markets, an advocacy group critical of the revolving door lobbying that let some of those responsible for disastrous deregulation return to power. Also serving on the task force is Damon Silvers, a AFL-CIO attorney who fought hard after the financial crisis to toughen up Dodd-Frank restrictions on big banks.
Some financial reformers, such as former Biden aide Jeff Connaughton, said the selection of the task force clearly reflects the influence of the chief of Biden’s 2020 transition, former Sen. Ted Kaufman, who has also been a leading voice for Wall Street reform in the past.
Such transition review task forces are intended to be fairly technocratic, to provide incoming officials with a list of issues to focus on, but not to recommend policies. That said, Gensler will almost certainly get a senior position in the new Biden administration, possibly as deputy treasury secretary under an equally progressive figure such as Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard, a leading candidate for the top Treasury post.
If Biden adopts an aggressive stance toward Wall Street, that could help to assuage angry progressives in his own party who believe that the anti-corporate proposals of Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have been given short shrift.
Rolling back Trump’s deregulation of Wall Street will be a tough task—and the president’s not done yet. In 2018, Trump signed a bill rolling back some Dodd-Frank restrictions on bank lending, and he is trying to stock the Fed’s Board of Governors, which oversees financial regulation, with ultra-conservatives such as Judy Shelton, who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate next week.
Since taking office, task force member Kelleher has written, “the Trump administration has set about dismantling the core pillars of financial reform by: lowering banks’ capital requirements, weakening stress testing and living wills, allowing more proprietary trading, enabling more unregulated derivatives dealing, rolling back consumer and investor protections, reducing prudential regulation of systemically significant banks, [and] neutering the regulation of systemically significant nonbanks and the shadow banking system.”
“President Trump has merged the White House with Wall Street and adopted big finance’s priorities as this administration’s top priorities,” Kelleher wrote last year in the American Prospect. “The critics of financial reform have claimed that the law and rules would kill banks’ revenue and profits, which would prevent them from lending and would in turn kill economic growth and jobs. In fact, in virtually every quarter since 2009, including throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, the biggest banks have recorded or eclipsed record revenues, profits.”
Kelleher wrote that the Trump administration’s decision to deregulate important nonbanks, which do not take deposits and can engage in credit-card and lending services in an unregulated way, is especially significant, “because it illustrates the Trump administration’s sheer recklessness.”
Kelleher, in an email on Thursday, said he would have no comment on his current role on the task force and its advice or influence, other than to say, “Anyone who answers such questions at this point or in the near and maybe medium term don’t know what they are talking about, no matter how confidently they speak!”
And despite the zeal of the task force, it’s not clear that even their desire to avoid the regulatory mistakes that fueled the 2008-2009 financial crisis will be enough to carry out root and branch reform, which would mainly require legislative and Fed reform. Even so, Trump has sought to soften the rules of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created by Dodd-Frank, as well as capital requirements for banks.
Robert Johnson, the head of the progressive Institute for New Economic Thinking, calls the Biden task force a “real good group.” But he then asked: “What power will they really have … after the power of money bends the best designs in a self-interested direction?”
Gensler was chief financial officer of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, but he had little influence on policy there. Even when he was first tapped to run the CFTC in 2009, his Wall Street past tainted him in the eyes of progressives. Sanders and Sen. Maria Cantwell put a hold on his nomination, and he was also criticized for his Goldman Sachs ties by then-Sen. Tom Harkin.
Even so, Gensler was more willing than some of his peers to admit that he made mistakes in letting Wall Street run amok by supporting the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which effectively deregulated the global market in over-the-counter derivatives.
“Looking back now, it is clear to me that all of us—all of us that were involved at the time, and certainly myself, should have done more to protect the American public through aggressive regulation, comprehensive regulation,” Gensler said at his confirmation hearing in 2009.
Now Wall Street banks and shadowy nonbanks have to confront the idea that one of their most zealous wardens could well up in a senior spot in the Biden administration.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-13--Almost Every U.S. State Is Now Officially a Coronavirus Hot Spot

The American COVID-19 crisis has reached catastrophic levels .
With the White House fixated on election challenges and strange , ominous shake-ups in the Defense Department and national security agencies , the virus is out of control across the country—with 49 states simultaneously classified as hot spots .
The spring and summer surges were geographically localized , first in the Northeast and Pacific coast , then in the South and Southwest .
With peaks confined geographically , it was possible for an overwhelmed hospital director or governor to reach out to counterparts in less-affected states for help , obtaining doctors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support , equipment , coroners , even morticians .
But this time , as the holidays and winter approach , almost every state is simultaneously struck , hospitals are breaking records every day for caseloads , and death counts are rising .
On Thursday , 150,526 new cases were reported—a record-breaking 24 hours .
And 1,104 Americans perished that day .
And more than 67,000 Americans were in the hospital with COVID-19—another record-breaking statistic .
During New York ’ s dire April , tens of thousands of health care workers volunteered to pour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doctors and nurses , coming not only from other states but also from Europe , Canada , and other parts of the world .
This time , however , the coronavirus is simultaneously surging all over Europe and has spread from the United States to Canada and Mexico , leading to a generalized North American crisis .
They ’ re on their own—each city , county , state , and territory of the United States of America .
And as hospitals exceed their capacities and refrigerated trucks line up to receive the dead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House are obsessed with overturning the election results and executing changes in the military and national security sectors , actions that are ringing alarms from as politically disparate voices as John Bolton , Bill Kristol , Rep. Jim Clyburn , Thomas Edsall , ex-CIA Director John Brennan , Ezra Klein , Karl Rove , and Sen. Mark Warner .
President Donald Trump ’ s sweeping personnel changes in the Pentagon and refusal so far to concede the election to Joe Biden have raised fears that he intends to soon act on previous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Drug Administration head Steve Hahn , Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar , White House Coronavirus Task Force members Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx , and other health officials vital to the COVID-19 fight .
The president has not attended a task force meeting since April , after a series of horrible press conference blunders on his part , and the group ’ s gatherings have , insiders say , become perfunctory .
On Monday , Vice President Mike Pence convened the task force ’ s most recent gathering , which focused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no new strategies for tackling the soaring spread of the coronavirus .
The task force did issue a warning that the pandemic is “ accelerating ” nationwide .
Meanwhile , COVID-19 rages on .
To date , the Trump administration has not allowed any contact between the Biden transition team and the White House or executive branch agencies , including those responsible for the epidemic response .
A Biden transition team and a coronavirus task force have assembled and are preparing for after he takes office on Jan. 20 , 2021 .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his administration are in charge of the pandemic response .
White House staff have their hands full , as several have been quarantined due to another coronavirus superspreader event—an election night party indoors in the East Room .
Several people contracted the virus at the event , including Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson ; chief of staff Mark Meadows ; White House political director Brian Jack ; David Bossie , who was involved in Trump ’ s election challenges ; and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani ’ s guest for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers tell the COVID-19 story .
Assembled above is a status report , based on information from the COVID Tracking Project , and the Kaiser Family Foundation , with guidance from former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Tom Frieden and Biden campaign health advisor Larry Brilliant .
Kaiser has for months mapped the United States , designating hot spots of out-of-control transmission with the color red : Now , almost all 50 states are red .
And , crucially , the pace of daily new cases and cumulative totals is quickening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surely exceed 2,000 new deaths per day , 400,000 total deaths , and 12 million cumulative cases by Christmas .

The American COVID-19 crisis has reached catastrophic levels. With the White House fixated on election challenges and strange, ominous shake-ups in the Defense Department and national security agencies, the virus is out of control across the country—with 49 states simultaneously classified as hot spots. The spring and summer surges were geographically localized, first in the Northeast and Pacific coast, then in the South and Southwest. With peaks confined geographically, it was possible for an overwhelmed hospital director or governor to reach out to counterparts in less-affected states for help, obtaining doctors, nurses, EMT personnel, laboratory support, equipment, coroners, even morticians . But this time, as the holidays and winter approach, almost every state is simultaneously struck, hospitals are breaking records every day for caseloads, and death counts are rising.
On Thursday, 150,526 new cases were reported—a record-breaking 24 hours. And 1,104 Americans perished that day. And more than 67,000 Americans were in the hospital with COVID-19—another record-breaking statistic.
During New York’s dire April, tens of thousands of health care workers volunteered to pour into the city to help the overwhelmed doctors and nurses, coming not only from other states but also from Europe, Canada, and other parts of the world. This time, however, the coronavirus is simultaneously surging all over Europe and has spread from the United States to Canada and Mexico, leading to a generalized North American crisis.
They’re on their own—each city, county, state, and territory of the United States of America. And as hospitals exceed their capacities and refrigerated trucks line up to receive the dead, the U.S. president and the entire White House are obsessed with overturning the election results and executing changes in the military and national security sectors, actions that are ringing alarms from as politically disparate voices as John Bolton, Bill Kristol, Rep. Jim Clyburn, Thomas Edsall, ex-CIA Director John Brennan, Ezra Klein, Karl Rove, and Sen. Mark Warner.
President Donald Trump’s sweeping personnel changes in the Pentagon and refusal so far to concede the election to Joe Biden have raised fears that he intends to soon act on previous threats to fire or reassign Food and Drug Administration head Steve Hahn, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, White House Coronavirus Task Force members Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, and other health officials vital to the COVID-19 fight. The president has not attended a task force meeting since April, after a series of horrible press conference blunders on his part, and the group’s gatherings have, insiders say, become perfunctory. On Monday, Vice President Mike Pence convened the task force’s most recent gathering, which focused on distribution of medical products and set no new strategies for tackling the soaring spread of the coronavirus. The task force did issue a warning that the pandemic is “accelerating” nationwide.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 rages on. To date, the Trump administration has not allowed any contact between the Biden transition team and the White House or executive branch agencies, including those responsible for the epidemic response. A Biden transition team and a coronavirus task force have assembled and are preparing for after he takes office on Jan. 20, 2021. But until then, a very distracted Trump and his administration are in charge of the pandemic response. White House staff have their hands full, as several have been quarantined due to another coronavirus superspreader event—an election night party indoors in the East Room. Several people contracted the virus at the event, including Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson; chief of staff Mark Meadows; White House political director Brian Jack; David Bossie, who was involved in Trump’s election challenges; and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani’s guest for the evening, Healy Baumgardner.
The numbers tell the COVID-19 story. Assembled above is a status report, based on information from the COVID Tracking Project, and the Kaiser Family Foundation, with guidance from former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Tom Frieden and Biden campaign health advisor Larry Brilliant. Kaiser has for months mapped the United States, designating hot spots of out-of-control transmission with the color red: Now, almost all 50 states are red. And, crucially, the pace of daily new cases and cumulative totals is quickening. If unabated, these tallies will surely exceed 2,000 new deaths per day, 400,000 total deaths, and 12 million cumulative cases by Christmas.