foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--Iran Retaliates for Suleimani Strike

Iran Retaliates for Suleimani Strike

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Iran launches an attack against military bases hosting U.S. troops in Iraq , Venezuela ’ s legislature is in the midst of a leadership crisis , and British and EU leaders meet ahead of negotiations over a post-Brexit trade deal .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Will the U.S .
Respond to Iran ?
Iran carried out an attack against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq at 1:30am local time , launching more than twenty missiles against two military bases .
Iran immediately claimed responsibility for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the U.S. assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani on Friday .
Iran ’ s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps issued a statement warning of more attacks if the United States responded .
No U.S. or Iraqi casualties were immediately reported , though a Pentagon assessment was ongoing .
Late Tuesday , U.S. President Donald Trump was monitoring the situation with his national security team at the White House .
Trump did not deliver an address to the country on Tuesday night in Washington , but tweeted “ All is well !
” and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earlier in the day , administration officials said the United States would be prepared to respond to retaliation .
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif seemed to signal that the missile attack “ concluded ” Iran ’ s response for Suleimani ’ s killing .
“ Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense , ” he tweeted .
Oil prices initially jumped on the news of the attacks , before settling as the limited nature of the Iranian strike seemed to calm markets .
But stock markets in Asia dropped sharply—with investors predicting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Widening fallout .
U.S. officials again sought to justify the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani earlier on Tuesday , with Defense Secretary Mark Esper saying that the Quds Force chief was planning an attack on U.S. interests within “ days.
” Now , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other senior officials are being asked to testify about that intelligence before Congress .
Back in Baghdad .
The fallout of Suleimani ’ s death could preserve Iran ’ s power in Iraq , Pesha Magid reports for FP .
Though the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posed a major challenge to Iran ’ s influence , the targeted strike has shifted their demands .
“ Protesters find their demands for a new government have been sidelined into a desperate push against foreign interference from the United States as well as Iran , ” she writes .
Who is running Venezuela ’ s legislature ?
Chaos briefly reigned in Venezuela ’ s National Assembly on Tuesday after troops at first stopped opposition leader Juan Guaidó and his supporters from entering for the first day of the new legislative session .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as congress chief on Sunday , and Luis Parra was installed instead—setting up the showdown on Tuesday , when the opposition stormed through the doors of the National Assembly to allow Guaidó to open the legislative session .
Still , it ’ s not clear Guaidó is in control : He was forced to flee the building via the basement .
Venezuela now has two politicians claiming to lead the National Assembly ( Parra and Guaidó ) , as well as two politicians claiming to lead the country itself ( Maduro and Guaidó @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as congress chief to court international support for his claim to the presidency of Venezuela .
Now , the U.S. is considering sanctions against the pro-government lawmakers , Reuters reports .
Johnson meets EU chief in London .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen in London today for the first time since she took office .
The meeting comes ahead of Johnson ’ s promise to take Britain out of the bloc by Jan. 31 .
He will relay that Britain will not extend negotiations over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Union beyond December .
Von der Leyen has previously suggested that to strike a deal before then will be difficult .
The trade negotiations are set to begin in March .
Australia skips climate action amid bushfires .
Amid a drought and devastating bushfires across Australia , Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the country ’ s energy minister are sticking to the country ’ s current carbon emissions limits , Reuters reports .
The position comes despite growing calls for action from the public and warnings from climate scientists .
Leaders argue that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s economy .
But the fires could hit the economy , too : Local businesses are already suffering from the effects on tourism .
Putin ’ s meeting with Erdogan .
Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey today amid turmoil in the Middle East .
Putin paid a surprise visit to Damascus on Tuesday—his first since 2017—meeting there with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad about Russia ’ s military support and Turkish operations in northern Syria .
Seismic activity in Puerto Rico .
Amid a week of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state of emergency on Tuesday after the island ’ s strongest earthquake in 102 years .
The declaration will open up federal aid funding for the U.S. territory .
The 6.4 magnitude quake led to a power outage across the island and raised fears of further damage .
China ’ s reach in the Pacific .
A battle of diplomatic and economic statecraft is playing out in the remote islands of the Pacific , as China strives to become the regional leader there .
In order to counter this influence , Australia and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to support island states ’ democracies , Philip Citowicki argues in FP .
Finland ’ s government has clarified that it does not plan to institute a four-day work week and abbreviated working hours nationwide , after dozens of media reports to the contrary .
Sanna Marin , who became prime minister last month , did casually float the idea at a panel discussion in August .
“ Why couldn ’ t it be the next step ?
” she said , according to the Helsinki Times .
“ Is eight hours really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Iran launches an attack against military bases hosting U.S. troops in Iraq, Venezuela’s legislature is in the midst of a leadership crisis, and British and EU leaders meet ahead of negotiations over a post-Brexit trade deal .I
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Iran launches an attack against military bases hosting U.S. troops in Iraq, Venezuela’s legislature is in the midst of a leadership crisis, and British and EU leaders meet ahead of negotiations over a post-Brexit trade deal.I
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Will the U.S. Respond to Iran? Iran carried out an attack against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq at 1:30am local time, launching more than twenty missiles against two military bases. Iran immediately claimed responsibility for the strike, which it said was retaliation for the U.S. assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani on Friday. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps issued a statement warning of more attacks if the United States responded. No U.S. or Iraqi casualties were immediately reported, though a Pentagon assessment was ongoing. Late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump was monitoring the situation with his national security team at the White House. Trump did not deliver an address to the country on Tuesday night in Washington, but tweeted “All is well!” and said he would speak on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, administration officials said the United States would be prepared to respond to retaliation. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif seemed to signal that the missile attack “concluded” Iran’s response for Suleimani’s killing. “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense,” he tweeted. Oil prices initially jumped on the news of the attacks, before settling as the limited nature of the Iranian strike seemed to calm markets. But stock markets in Asia dropped sharply—with investors predicting a bad day for the U.S. market. Widening fallout. U.S. officials again sought to justify the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani earlier on Tuesday, with Defense Secretary Mark Esper saying that the Quds Force chief was planning an attack on U.S. interests within “days.” Now, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other senior officials are being asked to testify about that intelligence before Congress.
Back in Baghdad. The fallout of Suleimani’s death could preserve Iran’s power in Iraq, Pesha Magid reports for FP. Though the mass anti-government protests that began in October posed a major challenge to Iran’s influence, the targeted strike has shifted their demands.
“Protesters find their demands for a new government have been sidelined into a desperate push against foreign interference from the United States as well as Iran,” she writes.
What We’re Following Today
Who is running Venezuela’s legislature? Chaos briefly reigned in Venezuela’s National Assembly on Tuesday after troops at first stopped opposition leader Juan Guaidó and his supporters from entering for the first day of the new legislative session. The military blocked lawmakers from reelecting Guaidó as congress chief on Sunday, and Luis Parra was installed instead—setting up the showdown on Tuesday, when the opposition stormed through the doors of the National Assembly to allow Guaidó to open the legislative session.
Still, it’s not clear Guaidó is in control: He was forced to flee the building via the basement. Venezuela now has two politicians claiming to lead the National Assembly (Parra and Guaidó), as well as two politicians claiming to lead the country itself (Maduro and Guaidó). Guaidó relied on his position as congress chief to court international support for his claim to the presidency of Venezuela. Now, the U.S. is considering sanctions against the pro-government lawmakers, Reuters reports.
Johnson meets EU chief in London. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen in London today for the first time since she took office. The meeting comes ahead of Johnson’s promise to take Britain out of the bloc by Jan. 31. He will relay that Britain will not extend negotiations over a future trade deal with the European Union beyond December. Von der Leyen has previously suggested that to strike a deal before then will be difficult. The trade negotiations are set to begin in March.
Australia skips climate action amid bushfires. Amid a drought and devastating bushfires across Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the country’s energy minister are sticking to the country’s current carbon emissions limits, Reuters reports. The position comes despite growing calls for action from the public and warnings from climate scientists. Leaders argue that cutting emissions further will harm Australia’s economy. But the fires could hit the economy, too: Local businesses are already suffering from the effects on tourism.
Keep an Eye On
Putin’s meeting with Erdogan. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey today amid turmoil in the Middle East. Putin paid a surprise visit to Damascus on Tuesday—his first since 2017—meeting there with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad about Russia’s military support and Turkish operations in northern Syria.
Seismic activity in Puerto Rico. Amid a week of seismic activity, Puerto Rico declared a state of emergency on Tuesday after the island’s strongest earthquake in 102 years. The declaration will open up federal aid funding for the U.S. territory. The 6.4 magnitude quake led to a power outage across the island and raised fears of further damage.
China’s reach in the Pacific. A battle of diplomatic and economic statecraft is playing out in the remote islands of the Pacific, as China strives to become the regional leader there. In order to counter this influence, Australia and the United States will need to cooperate to support island states’ democracies, Philip Citowicki argues in FP.
Odds and Ends
Finland’s government has clarified that it does not plan to institute a four-day work week and abbreviated working hours nationwide, after dozens of media reports to the contrary. Sanna Marin, who became prime minister last month, did casually float the idea at a panel discussion in August. “Why couldn’t it be the next step?” she said, according to the Helsinki Times. “Is eight hours really the ultimate truth?”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--Iran Launches Attack on U.S. Bases in Iraq

Iran Launches Attack on U.S .
Bases in Iraq Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. military and coalition forces in Iraq , the U.S. Defense Department confirmed on Tuesday , in what appeared to be a coordinated response to the killing of the most powerful Iranian military commander in a U.S. drone strike last week .
But initial reports after the strike suggested that there were no American casualties , and both Washington and Tehran signaled there might be a window of opportunity to de-escalate tensions that have skyrocketed since the summer .
In a tweet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now .
So far , so good !
” The president said he would be making a statement to the nation on Wednesday morning .
In Iran , the foreign minister , Mohammad Javad Zarif , said early Wednesday local time that Iran had “ concluded ” its attacks and did “ not seek escalation or war.
” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed further retaliation for the U.S. ’ s killing of a Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani , leader of Iran ’ s expeditionary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threatening additional military attacks .
He indicated that is end goal was to expel U.S. troops from the Middle East .
The remarks capped off a panicked 12 hours in Washington and the region .
Tehran immediately claimed responsibility for the strike , a rare move for a regime that primarily relies on proxies to carry out attacks .
Iranian officials previewed the attack earlier in the day , vowing a direct and proportionate response to Trump ’ s decision to kill Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani , leader of Iran ’ s expeditionary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The brave soldiers of IRGC ’ s aerospace unit have launched a successful attack with tens of ballistic missiles on [ Ain ] al-Assad military base in the name of martyr Gen. Qassem Soleimani , ” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement .
The Pentagon could not immediately confirm whether there had been any casualties .
“ We are working on initial battle damage assessments , ” said spokesman Jonathan Hoffman .
“ As we evaluate the situation and our response , we will take all necessary measures to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and allies in the region.
” Iraqi security officials told CNN that there were Iraqi casualties from the attacks , underscoring how Iraq has become caught in the crossfire of the increasingly dangerous escalation between Tehran and Washington .
The British Ministry of Defence said Wednesday there were no U.K. casualties in the strikes .
Trump has been briefed and is closely monitoring the situation , according to the White House .
Meanwhile , his national security team quickly convened in response to the attacks : Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mark Milley , the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff , were seen arriving at the White House around 7:30 on Tuesday evening , roughly two hours after the attacks began .
They left a few hours later .
The Pentagon confirmed late Tuesday that the missiles were launched directly from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting both U.S. military and coalition personnel at Ain al-Assad and Erbil .
Another base in Iraq , Camp Taji , was reportedly hit by rockets .
Trump and first lady Melania @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a surprise Christmas visit to troops in 2018 .
NBC News reported that Iranian air force jets also had deployed .
Senior administration officials said earlier Tuesday that the United States was prepared to respond to any retaliation by Iran .
On Jan. 5 , Trump tweeted a warning to Tehran not to attack U.S. bases .
“ The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment .
We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World !
If Iran attacks an American Base , or any American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that brand new beautiful equipment their way…and without hesitation !
” the U.S. president said .
But Iranian officials have signaled for days that Tehran was planning a direct and proportional response to Suleimani ’ s killing .
On Sunday , the military advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan , told CNN in an interview that Iran would retaliate directly against U.S. “ military sites.
” Following the Iranian missile attack , Iran ’ s foreign minister , Mohammad Javad Zarif , tweeted : “ We do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will defend ourselves against any aggression.
” Zarif said that Iran had targeted the base from which a “ cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.
” He also said that “ Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter.
” Article 51 protects the “ inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.
” Pompeo , addressing reporters on Tuesday before the attacks took place , said : “ In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the president will respond in a way that he did last week , which was decisive , serious , and messaged Iran about the constraints that we are going to place on that regime so that it doesn ’ t continue to put American lives at risk.
” Meanwhile , Esper echoed Pompeo ’ s comments Tuesday afternoon in the Pentagon briefing room .
“ We are not looking to start a war with Iran , but we are prepared to finish one , ” he said .
Reports trickled in overnight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ throughout the region in preparation for a major attack .
CNN reported that U.S. troops were aware of threats from Iranian drones—the same ones that had been used to strike a major Saudi oil facility in September 2019 .
Since the strike on Suleimani , the Pentagon has ordered roughly 10,000 additional forces to the region , on top of the 14,000 that were sent in 2019 .
Update Jan. 7 : This story has been updated to reflect breaking news .

Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. military and coalition forces in Iraq, the U.S. Defense Department confirmed on Tuesday, in what appeared to be a coordinated response to the killing of the most powerful Iranian military commander in a U.S. drone strike last week.
Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. military and coalition forces in Iraq, the U.S. Defense Department confirmed on Tuesday, in what appeared to be a coordinated response to the killing of the most powerful Iranian military commander in a U.S. drone strike last week.
But initial reports after the strike suggested that there were no American casualties, and both Washington and Tehran signaled there might be a window of opportunity to de-escalate tensions that have skyrocketed since the summer. In a tweet late Tuesday night, Trump said: “Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!” The president said he would be making a statement to the nation on Wednesday morning.
In Iran, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said early Wednesday local time that Iran had “concluded” its attacks and did “not seek escalation or war.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed further retaliation for the U.S. killing of Qassem Suleimani, the leader of Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force, but stopped short of threatening additional military attacks. He indicated that the end goal was to expel U.S. troops from the Middle East.
“Last night, they were given one slap,” he said Wednesday. “Such military actions are not enough as far the importance of retaliation is concerned. What’s important is that their corruption-creating presence should end.”
The remarks capped off a panicked 12 hours in Washington and the region. Tehran immediately claimed responsibility for the strike, a rare move for a regime that primarily relies on proxies to carry out attacks. Iranian officials previewed the attack earlier in the day, vowing a direct and proportionate response to Trump’s decision to kill Suleimani on Jan. 3.
“The brave soldiers of IRGC’s aerospace unit have launched a successful attack with tens of ballistic missiles on [Ain] al-Assad military base in the name of martyr Gen. Qassem Soleimani,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement.
The Pentagon could not immediately confirm whether there had been any casualties. “We are working on initial battle damage assessments,” said spokesman Jonathan Hoffman. “As we evaluate the situation and our response, we will take all necessary measures to protect and defend U.S. personnel, partners, and allies in the region.”
Iraqi security officials told CNN that there were Iraqi casualties from the attacks, underscoring how Iraq has become caught in the crossfire of the increasingly dangerous escalation between Tehran and Washington. The British Defence Ministry said Wednesday that there were no U.K. casualties in the strikes.
Trump has been briefed and is closely monitoring the situation, according to the White House. Meanwhile, his national security team quickly convened in response to the attacks: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were seen arriving at the White House around 7:30 on Tuesday evening, roughly two hours after the attacks began. They left a few hours later.
The Pentagon confirmed late Tuesday that the missiles were launched directly from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting both U.S. military and coalition personnel at Ain al-Assad and Erbil. Another base in Iraq, Camp Taji, was reportedly hit by rockets. Trump and first lady Melania Trump toured the Ain al-Assad base during a surprise Christmas visit to troops in 2018.
NBC News reported that Iranian air force jets also had deployed.
Senior administration officials said earlier Tuesday that the United States was prepared to respond to any retaliation by Iran. On Jan. 5, Trump tweeted a warning to Tehran not to attack U.S. bases. “The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way…and without hesitation!” the U.S. president said.
But Iranian officials have signaled for days that Tehran was planning a direct and proportional response to Suleimani’s killing. On Sunday, Khamenei’s military advisor, Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan, told CNN in an interview that Iran would retaliate directly against U.S. “military sites.”
Immediately following the Iranian missile attack, Zarif tweeted: “We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.” Zarif said Iran had targeted the base from which a “cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.” He added: “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter.” Article 51 protects the “inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.”
Pompeo, addressing reporters on Tuesday before the attacks took place, said: “In the event the Iranians make another bad choice, the president will respond in a way that he did last week, which was decisive, serious, and messaged Iran about the constraints that we are going to place on that regime so that it doesn’t continue to put American lives at risk.”
Meanwhile, Esper echoed Pompeo’s comments Tuesday afternoon in the Pentagon briefing room. “We are not looking to start a war with Iran, but we are prepared to finish one,” he said.
Reports trickled in overnight that U.S. forces were on high alert throughout the region in preparation for a major attack. CNN reported that U.S. troops were aware of threats from Iranian drones—the same ones that had been used to strike a major Saudi oil facility in September 2019. Since the strike on Suleimani, the Pentagon has ordered roughly 10,000 additional forces to the region, on top of the 14,000 that were sent in 2019.
Update, Jan. 7, 2020: This story has been updated to reflect breaking news.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--U.S. and Iranian Choices Are Getting Dangerously Narrow

U.S. and Iranian Choices Are Getting Dangerously Narrow The smoke is still clearing from the drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani , and from the Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Iraq , and any conclusions have to be tentative ones .
But the history of U.S.-Iran conflict points to a narrow , and possibly dangerous , set of choices ahead .
While the proximate cause of the strike was an attack on an Iraqi base that killed an American contractor , and reported intelligence that Suleimani and others were planning future attacks , the action has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S. sanctions are devastating Iran , inflating the rial , and shrinking the economy .
Mass demonstrations against economic hardship left Tehran with little choice but to try to change the terms of competition .
Diplomatic and economic efforts were not working , so Iran turned to leaning even more heavily on military and paramilitary actions .
The best strategic explanation for Washington ’ s action was that it was intended to persuade Tehran that the military path , too , is a dead end—maximum pressure across multiple vectors .
Yet because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unresolved conflict , even if we enter a lull , the repercussions of the strike are far from over .
Nation-states that feel attacked or aggrieved often become more risk tolerant .
They may reason that things are already bad , so the risks incurred appear less formidable .
Or they may adopt fatalism , concluding that they have no choice but to act regardless of costs , for reasons of righting an affront to national honor or to meet political imperatives .
This logic appears to be particularly compelling to authoritarian regimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democratic procedure for their seats in office .
In any event , expect that the events of recent days will make Tehran even more willing to pursue risky tactics and strategies in the coming months , especially if the Quds Force—and its parent body , the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—has its way .
Iran is also a very capable opponent—and one aware of its own limitations .
In attacking Saudi oil facilities last September , Iran demonstrated a capability to hit multiple targets with great precision , but the missile strikes this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much less accuracy .
Predictably , and fortunately , early reports indicate that they caused no casualties and little if any damage .
This likely reflects a choice by Tehran not to maximize carnage and therefore not to escalate toward war .
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said as much after the missile launches .
This should be seen as a tactic , not an aversion to killing .
Tehran is not prepared for full-scale war with the United States .
It ’ s still not clear what the nuclear consequences will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of violence , after the United States reimposed sanctions , Tehran broke most of the key limits on its nuclear program imposed by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , albeit by modest amounts .
After the drone strike , Iran announced that the limits on uranium enrichment were void but that it would continue to cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency verification measures .
Any more aggressive action in the nuclear realm would likely cross U.S. or Israeli red lines and provoke further military action .
While neither Washington nor Tehran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both capitals narrow their choices and increase the risk of it , and the danger will remain so long as the nuclear issue and the maximum pressure campaign remain in place .

The smoke is still clearing from the drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, and from the Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Iraq, and any conclusions have to be tentative ones. But the history of U.S.-Iran conflict points to a narrow, and possibly dangerous, set of choices ahead.
The smoke is still clearing from the drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, and from the Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Iraq, and any conclusions have to be tentative ones. But the history of U.S.-Iran conflict points to a narrow, and possibly dangerous, set of choices ahead.
While the proximate cause of the strike was an attack on an Iraqi base that killed an American contractor, and reported intelligence that Suleimani and others were planning future attacks, the action has to be seen in a broader context.
U.S. sanctions are devastating Iran, inflating the rial, and shrinking the economy. Mass demonstrations against economic hardship left Tehran with little choice but to try to change the terms of competition. Diplomatic and economic efforts were not working, so Iran turned to leaning even more heavily on military and paramilitary actions.
The best strategic explanation for Washington’s action was that it was intended to persuade Tehran that the military path, too, is a dead end—maximum pressure across multiple vectors. Yet because the action was rooted in a fundamentally unresolved conflict, even if we enter a lull, the repercussions of the strike are far from over.
Nation-states that feel attacked or aggrieved often become more risk tolerant. They may reason that things are already bad, so the risks incurred appear less formidable. Or they may adopt fatalism, concluding that they have no choice but to act regardless of costs, for reasons of righting an affront to national honor or to meet political imperatives. This logic appears to be particularly compelling to authoritarian regimes, which depend on power rather than democratic procedure for their seats in office. In any event, expect that the events of recent days will make Tehran even more willing to pursue risky tactics and strategies in the coming months, especially if the Quds Force—and its parent body, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—has its way.
Iran is also a very capable opponent—and one aware of its own limitations. In attacking Saudi oil facilities last September, Iran demonstrated a capability to hit multiple targets with great precision, but the missile strikes this week were apparently undertaken with ballistic systems with much less accuracy. Predictably, and fortunately, early reports indicate that they caused no casualties and little if any damage. This likely reflects a choice by Tehran not to maximize carnage and therefore not to escalate toward war. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said as much after the missile launches. This should be seen as a tactic, not an aversion to killing. Tehran is not prepared for full-scale war with the United States.
It’s still not clear what the nuclear consequences will be. Even before the latest round of violence, after the United States reimposed sanctions, Tehran broke most of the key limits on its nuclear program imposed by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, albeit by modest amounts. After the drone strike, Iran announced that the limits on uranium enrichment were void but that it would continue to cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency verification measures. Any more aggressive action in the nuclear realm would likely cross U.S. or Israeli red lines and provoke further military action.
While neither Washington nor Tehran may want war, the imperatives driving both capitals narrow their choices and increase the risk of it, and the danger will remain so long as the nuclear issue and the maximum pressure campaign remain in place.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--Taiwan’s Election Is a Referendum on Its Identity

Taiwan ’ s Election Is a Referendum on Its Identity Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s weekly China Brief .
The highlights this week : What to expect ahead of Taiwan ’ s general elections this weekend , China replaces its top representative in Hong Kong , and why capital is drying up for Chinese start-ups .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
Taiwanese voters go to the polls on Saturday in the most contentious elections since Taiwan ’ s transition to democracy .
Incumbent President Tsai @ @ @ @ @ @ @ referendum on Taiwan ’ s identity , painting her opponents as ready to hand the self-ruled island to Chinese President Xi Jinping .
Victory for Tsai now seems certain .
She is consistently polling at over 50 percent , while her primary challenger , the onetime rising star Han Kuo-yu , lingers at around 15 percent .
In recent months , fortunes have changed for Tsai ’ s Democratic Progressive Party ( DPP ) , which suffered a serious defeat in 2018 local elections .
Even in August , Tsai was barely ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has risen as his polling numbers have crashed .
In large part , that ’ s because of China ’ s response to the democracy movement in Hong Kong .
Tsai ’ s DPP is ardently anti-Beijing .
The main opposition party , Kuomintang ( KMT ) , is increasingly associated with pro-China policy—despite its origins on the mainland as the Chinese Communist Party ’ s foe .
The mainland attitude toward Hong Kong has hurt the case for reconciliation between China and Taiwan : The DPP ’ s most recent advertisement plays @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s cause with Hong Kong ’ s .
Economic concerns .
Han has argued that Taiwan ’ s economic prospects will be threatened if it remains hostile to mainland China .
Initially , that worked with voters , but Taiwan ’ s relatively prosperous economy and record-low unemployment have worked against the narrative .
Han , meanwhile , faces accusations that he has been surreptitiously aided by the mainland from the start .
Concerns over Chinese influence have been a major part of the election , with the DPP blaming the KMT for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s likely victory will deal another blow to the Chinese Communist Party ’ s long-term strategy of “ one country , two systems ” : the idea that Taiwan could nominally accept Beijing ’ s authority while retaining its own laws for a period , as with Hong Kong and Macao .
Beijing ’ s soft sell has failed , but the mainland obsession with Taiwan ’ s so-called return to China won ’ t go away .
Military options may even start to look more palatable .
A replacement in Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pro-democracy candidates won in a landslide in the district elections last November , Beijing has replaced its top representative in Hong Kong , the head of the Liaison Office .
The shift could mean Beijing is aware that the Liaison Office was telling it what it wanted to hear , not the information it needed .
On the other hand , the new representative , Luo Huining , doesn ’ t speak Cantonese—making him even more dependent on others to stay updated .
The office itself has been the target of protesters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ watch since it was stormed last summer .
The People ’ s Leader .
Chinese President Xi Jinping received the title of the “ People ’ s Leader ” ( renmin lingxiu ) in August 2019 .
In December , it was formally approved by the 25-member Political Bureau that Xi heads .
The term leader ( lingxiu ) was previously reserved for Mao Zedong and briefly for his short-lived successor , Hua Guofeng .
The new title signals Xi ’ s unprecedented power but perhaps also his insecurity—especially as it comes alongside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tehran ’ s pal ?
China has sent messages of reassurance to Iran following the U.S. killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani last Friday .
Despite Beijing ’ s long-term connections with Tehran , it could stand to benefit from a wider confrontation that draws the United States further into the Middle East .
In private , Chinese analysts have described the Iraq War as buying China a decade .
An Iranian conflict could give Beijing even more strategic space .
Tech ’ s long winter .
Capital is drying up for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 came with a painful reckoning : 336 startups failed at a cost of about $ 2.5 billion in venture capital , the Financial Times reports .
Half of China ’ s biggest start-up failures came last year alone .
The failures are a result of U.S.-China decoupling , the general economic slowdown , and political pressures on banks that have made lenders more cautious .
Many of the casualties—such as Tuandaiwang , which collapsed in March—were in peer-to-peer lending .
( Some were little more than Ponzi schemes . )
Major partners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Iran goes back to 1974 , when China began to look seriously for petroleum imports outside its borders .
Those ties survived the Iranian revolution , despite the mullahs ’ persecution of Iranian communists .
Iran is a valued partner in China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative , while China has been Iran ’ s biggest trading partner in recent years—a relationship that might be strained by U.S. sanctions on Iran ’ s oil exports .
Pork prices likely to soar again .
The Lunar New Year is a few weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prepares to go home to celebrate ( and eat ) , people are anxiously watching pork prices , which are still high after African swine fever devastated Chinese herds last year .
Pork prices rose from 20 yuan per kilo to 53 yuan per kilo in December .
Despite relief after a release of pork reserves , prices are likely to surge again under the pressure of new year banquets .
Coal is back .
Although smog levels this winter haven ’ t been as high as previous years , both residents and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return to coal expansion .
Chinese coal usage has grown in the last few years , despite China ’ s commitment to reducing its carbon emissions .
That must end if China wants to meet its climate targets , a new report warns .
This 2014 article , brought to our attention by the political scientist Sam Crane , criticizes the myths of Confucianism dominating China ’ s past , or the idea that the 20th century was a violent anomaly .
William Rowe , a China historian , points to cultures of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anger that simmered underneath a self-promoting elite during the Ming and Qing dynasties ( from the 14th to the 20th century ) .
The Qing state oscillated between colonial violence to enforce its borders and a frustrating series of civil disputes at home—an image that has echoes today .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: What to expect ahead of Taiwan’s general elections this weekend, China replaces its top representative in Hong Kong , and why capital is drying up for Chinese start-ups .
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: What to expect ahead of Taiwan’s general elections this weekend, China replaces its top representative in Hong Kong, and why capital is drying up for Chinese start-ups.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
Tsai Ing-wen Set for Victory in Taiwan
Taiwanese voters go to the polls on Saturday in the most contentious elections since Taiwan’s transition to democracy. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen has made the election into a referendum on Taiwan’s identity, painting her opponents as ready to hand the self-ruled island to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Victory for Tsai now seems certain. She is consistently polling at over 50 percent, while her primary challenger, the onetime rising star Han Kuo-yu, lingers at around 15 percent. In recent months, fortunes have changed for Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which suffered a serious defeat in 2018 local elections. Even in August, Tsai was barely ahead of Han, but support for her has risen as his polling numbers have crashed.
In large part, that’s because of China’s response to the democracy movement in Hong Kong. Tsai’s DPP is ardently anti-Beijing. The main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), is increasingly associated with pro-China policy—despite its origins on the mainland as the Chinese Communist Party’s foe. The mainland attitude toward Hong Kong has hurt the case for reconciliation between China and Taiwan: The DPP’s most recent advertisement plays to this, explicitly linking Taiwan’s cause with Hong Kong’s.
Economic concerns. Han has argued that Taiwan’s economic prospects will be threatened if it remains hostile to mainland China. Initially, that worked with voters, but Taiwan’s relatively prosperous economy and record-low unemployment have worked against the narrative. Han, meanwhile, faces accusations that he has been surreptitiously aided by the mainland from the start. Concerns over Chinese influence have been a major part of the election, with the DPP blaming the KMT for disinformation campaigns.
Failed policy. Tsai’s likely victory will deal another blow to the Chinese Communist Party’s long-term strategy of “one country, two systems”: the idea that Taiwan could nominally accept Beijing’s authority while retaining its own laws for a period, as with Hong Kong and Macao. Beijing’s soft sell has failed, but the mainland obsession with Taiwan’s so-called return to China won’t go away. Military options may even start to look more palatable.
What We’re Following
A replacement in Hong Kong. After Hong Kong’s pro-democracy candidates won in a landslide in the district elections last November, Beijing has replaced its top representative in Hong Kong, the head of the Liaison Office. The shift could mean Beijing is aware that the Liaison Office was telling it what it wanted to hear, not the information it needed. On the other hand, the new representative, Luo Huining, doesn’t speak Cantonese—making him even more dependent on others to stay updated. The office itself has been the target of protesters, though Hong Kong police have been on watch since it was stormed last summer.
The People’s Leader. Chinese President Xi Jinping received the title of the “People’s Leader” (renmin lingxiu) in August 2019. In December, it was formally approved by the 25-member Political Bureau that Xi heads. The term leader (lingxiu) was previously reserved for Mao Zedong and briefly for his short-lived successor, Hua Guofeng. The new title signals Xi’s unprecedented power but perhaps also his insecurity—especially as it comes alongside propaganda with increasingly Maoist overtones.
Still Tehran’s pal? China has sent messages of reassurance to Iran following the U.S. killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani last Friday. Despite Beijing’s long-term connections with Tehran, it could stand to benefit from a wider confrontation that draws the United States further into the Middle East. In private, Chinese analysts have described the Iraq War as buying China a decade. An Iranian conflict could give Beijing even more strategic space.
Tech and Business
Tech’s long winter. Capital is drying up for Chinese start-ups, and the end of 2019 came with a painful reckoning: 336 startups failed at a cost of about $2.5 billion in venture capital, the Financial Times reports. Half of China’s biggest start-up failures came last year alone. The failures are a result of U.S.-China decoupling, the general economic slowdown, and political pressures on banks that have made lenders more cautious. Many of the casualties—such as Tuandaiwang, which collapsed in March—were in peer-to-peer lending. (Some were little more than Ponzi schemes.)
Major partners. China’s modern economic relationship with Iran goes back to 1974, when China began to look seriously for petroleum imports outside its borders. Those ties survived the Iranian revolution, despite the mullahs’ persecution of Iranian communists. Iran is a valued partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, while China has been Iran’s biggest trading partner in recent years—a relationship that might be strained by U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.
China’s Trade With Iran Imports and Exports Since 2010, In Billions USD
China’s Trade With IranImports and exports since 2010, in billions USD
Pork prices likely to soar again. The Lunar New Year is a few weeks away, and as half of China prepares to go home to celebrate (and eat), people are anxiously watching pork prices, which are still high after African swine fever devastated Chinese herds last year. Pork prices rose from 20 yuan per kilo to 53 yuan per kilo in December. Despite relief after a release of pork reserves, prices are likely to surge again under the pressure of new year banquets.
Coal is back. Although smog levels this winter haven’t been as high as previous years, both residents and outsiders are concerned about China’s return to coal expansion. Chinese coal usage has grown in the last few years, despite China’s commitment to reducing its carbon emissions. That must end if China wants to meet its climate targets, a new report warns.
What We’re Reading
“Violence in Qing-Ming Society,” by William Rowe
This 2014 article, brought to our attention by the political scientist Sam Crane, criticizes the myths of Confucianism dominating China’s past, or the idea that the 20th century was a violent anomaly. William Rowe, a China historian, points to cultures of exorcism, popular violence, and mob anger that simmered underneath a self-promoting elite during the Ming and Qing dynasties (from the 14th to the 20th century). The Qing state oscillated between colonial violence to enforce its borders and a frustrating series of civil disputes at home—an image that has echoes today.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--Get Ready for More Mischief From Iran

Get Ready for More Mischief From Iran

Get Ready for More Mischief From Iran After Iran launched a bloodless retaliatory strike early Wednesday on two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops , U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to seize the opportunity to de-escalate the military confrontation between the two countries .
“ The United States is ready to embrace peace , ” he said in a White House address on Wednesday .
But if military retaliation appears off the table for now , Trump dialed up the heat diplomatically , promising additional economic sanctions on Iran in the wake of the missile strike and calling on European countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuclear pact , which Tehran is breaching bit by bit .
Foreign Policy spoke with Matthew Reed , the vice president at Foreign Reports , an energy consultancy focused on the Middle East , about the ongoing risks to the region ’ s energy infrastructure from Iran ’ s use of asymmetric attacks to push back against U.S. economic pressure and last week ’ s assassination of Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani .
Foreign Policy : Despite the signs of de-escalation , there are also indications that Iran ’ s not done yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actions , and there ’ s still talk in Revolutionary Guard circles of more asymmetric attacks .
Do you expect Iran to go back to its summer and fall playbook and go after regional energy infrastructure ?
Matthew Reed : For as long as Trump is committed to his maximum pressure policy , the threat of these potshots and harassment tactics will remain .
They might not act out immediately , but that playbook has been successful up to now , and their options are limited .
FP : Just this morning , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Strait of Hormuz , with some tanker companies halting transits , and concerns that Iran might be ready to close one of the world ’ s key oil chokepoints .
Is closing Hormuz still an option for Iran , or is that a step too far ?
MR : I think now more than ever the Iranians are looking to be creative and cause mayhem in new ways and in new places .
If you look at what they are actually saying internally , and we ’ re talking about Iranian military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are talking about is Iran ’ s reach .
When the Iranians talk about the geography of resistance , they are talking about being able to hit many targets and not necessarily directly .
The Strait of Hormuz is so sensitive that if the Iranians attacked it head-on , or launched missiles from the coast at ships , it would trigger an open conflict with the United States .
FP : Which is what they seem determined to avoid .
MR : But they have other options .
They have fired precision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t think at this stage that they are ready to do something as big and bold as Abqaiq , when they attacked two of the biggest and most important oil facilities in Saudi Arabia .
Doing that now would be begging Trump to hit back hard .
But they could hit pipelines , they could resort to sabotage as they did with the tankers last May and June , and beyond that , what they might be more inclined to do now is to hit new targets in new places .
And that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait are underappreciated as potential risks .
FP : When you talk about Bab el-Mandeb , what would that mean ?
Iran using Houthi proxies in Yemen to disrupt shipping ?
MR : Yeah , they ’ ve used the Houthis before to attack ships in that area , and they could do it again .
FP : And that wouldn ’ t draw a disproportionate response from Trump ?
MR : I think right now it depends on scale .
And so far , the only red @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defend is American lives .
The reason Trump didn ’ t hit the Iranians harder over the summer is the fact that even if the campaign of Iranian disruptions made headlines , it still caused minimal disruption .
It scared people , but it did not disrupt oil supplies .
FP : But what is Iran ’ s objective in attacking these targets if hitting Abqaiq barely moved the oil market and if the recent missile attacks hardly nudged the oil price ?
What is it trying to get out of these attacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they want the United States to know that they can hit back , and they want U.S. allies to know that they are more vulnerable than they think .
The Gulf states have to be on guard for more Iranian attacks .
When it comes to Iran ’ s threats to attacks on those countries , what they are doing is mirroring what the United States says about Iran ’ s proxies .
Trump says that he will not distinguish between Iran ’ s proxies and Iran , and what Iran is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safe if they enable American attacks on Iran .
FP : Looking back over the past six months , from the tanker sabotage to the attack on Saudi Arabia to the missile attacks—is the risk premium in the oil market a relic of the past ?
Are we so awash in oil that these things can no longer move the market , or could you see some sequence of events that brings us back to triple-digit oil prices ?
MR : I don ’ t know about triple digits , but the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less resilient in September , this would be a completely different ballgame .
It ’ s my opinion that we were closer to war in September than we are now .
The risk premium is definitely not a thing of the past—it ’ s just that , at this moment , we have enough oil sloshing around .
Six months from now , this story might be very different .
FP : In terms of regional energy risk , there seems to be one from an unexpected direction , which is Iraq .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ expel U.S. troops , and Trump has threatened to slap sanctions on Iraq .
Can you see the United States levying sanctions on Iraqi oil production ?
MR : No , we ’ re not at that point yet .
If you translate what Trump is getting at , what he is essentially saying is that the Iraq War was a bad investment from the start , and he is prepared to send the Iraqis a bill for it .
It ’ s posturing—until proved otherwise .
FP : But is there a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the event of a U.S. troop withdrawal ?
Could a reconstituted Islamic State pose a threat to Iraqi oil production ?
MR : Even at its strongest , the Islamic State didn ’ t pose a grave threat to Iraqi production because the bulk of that production is in the south , in the Shiite heartland .
Rewind to 2015 , and the Islamic State had a lot more success attacking pipelines , but they didn ’ t take off that many barrels .
The fields that they captured in Iraq were not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was not very good .
In Syria , the story ’ s different .
FP : Could a revitalized Islamic State go back to the days of its oil-rich caliphate ?

Explore the benefits included in your subscription.
Explore the benefits of your FP subscription.
Stay updated on the topics you care about with My FP. Sign up below.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--Just in Time for Lunar New Year, Another SARS-like Epidemic Is Brewing in China

Just in Time for Lunar New Year , Another SARS-like Epidemic Is Brewing in China Here we go again .
A mysterious outbreak sickens people in China , causing panic in Hong Kong , Singapore , and Taiwan as the world awaits real information from Beijing .
We have been here many times before , from deadly influenza epidemics in the 1990s to SARS in 2003 , with more flus since and recently even a cluster of pneumonic plague cases .
This time around , the story begins with a mysterious respiratory outbreak on Dec. 12 in the central Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least 59 people to isolation wards in infectious diseases hospitals , where seven are now said to be in critical condition .
As is typical , Beijing has kept mum about the outbreak , aside from insisting that the scientists—including non-Chinese—toiling to identify the culprit microorganism need to maintain secrecy and that there is no evidence that it can be spread from person to person .
In fact , the government delayed notifying anybody about the pneumonia outbreak until Wuhan city officials acknowledged it two weeks after its apparent onset .
In part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread—there have been at least 16 cases so far in restive Hong Kong and one putative case in Singapore—and Beijing has threatened to jail individuals who convey further information about the disease on social media .
The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping is doing itself no favors by handling outbreaks in such a brutal and secretive fashion .
Regardless of whatever legitimate scientific inquiry may now be underway , the lack of transparency and domestic repression of so-called rumormongers simply fuel international suspicions of a cover-up , perhaps of a larger-than-admitted epidemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has compared the Wuhan outbreak to the 2003 SARS ( severe acute respiratory syndrome ) epidemic , which spread from mainland China to nearly 30 nations , sickening upwards of 8,000 people , killing 774 , and sowing panic around the world .
China would do well to remember the lessons of that outbreak—particularly the humiliation its leaders suffered from anger across Asia—and open the lid on daily information on the Wuhan pneumonia investigation .
And it had better do so before Jan. 25 , the Lunar New Year , when millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high-speed train hub of Wuhan on their way to celebrate the holiday with relatives .
The Medical Administration of Wuhan Municipal Health Committee first raised the alarm on Dec. 30 , when it posted a red alert on its website , declaring an “ urgent notice on the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause.
” Local reporters who called the Health Committee hotline were merely told that there was a pneumonia outbreak of unknown cause involving 27 patients , most of whom were connected in some way to the South China Seafood Market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reduced white blood cell counts , and high fevers , and they failed to improve with antibiotic treatment .
A viral cause was suspected .
On New Year ’ s Eve , Hubei provincial authorities put out a report announcing that an official inquiry concurred that “ 27 cases of viral pneumonia have been found , all of which were diagnosed with viral pneumonia/pulmonary infection .
Of the 27 cases , seven were critically ill , and the remaining cases were controllable .
Two of them improved and were expected to be discharged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authorities began tightening security , acknowledging that three travelers who had been in Wuhan had ended up in hospitals in the territory suffering respiratory distress .
One woman was being treated in Princess Margaret Hospital , which managed many of the 2003 SARS cases .
Along with Hong Kong , Singapore and Taiwan also began conducting temperature screenings at airports and train stations , hoping to spot feverish pneumonia carriers before they could spread whatever the mysterious disease might be .
Then , on New Year ’ s Day , alleged medical documents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purporting to show that the outbreak was , in fact , caused by the SARS virus , which is a member of the coronavirus family .
But by Jan. 3 , Chinese authorities said they had ruled out several types of pneumonia , as well as SARS , noting that the mystery agent was not a coronavirus and bore less than 4 percent genetic similarity with SARS .
Concern about another SARS epidemic was ill-placed , authorities said , and they arrested eight individuals from Wuhan , who now face severe punishments for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without verification.
” David Paulk , editor of the Shanghai-based Sixth Tone news website , noted on a page that has since been removed that the crime of spreading rumors can lead to seven years ’ imprisonment in China .
Last year , a man was detained for 10 days for “ spreading rumors ” on WeChat about a H7N9 flu outbreak in Haikou .
In 2018 , a man went to prison for falsely claiming that thousands of people had been hospitalized after eating tainted watermelons .
“ People spread rumors precisely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a timely manner , so how can we be blamed ?
” The reason rumors spread so easily is clear .
As Paulk translated one post that has since been removed on Weibo , “ People spread rumors precisely because the authorities didn ’ t respond in a timely manner , so how can we be blamed ?
Don ’ t I have the right to know the truth , be afraid , and try to save myself ?
” Another person wrote , “ How is this a rumor ?
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ account , according to the South China Morning Post .
“ This outbreak happened .
The public was spreading information because there was nothing from the officials for an entire day.
” The Post also reports that families of the hospitalized patients in Wuhan haven ’ t received information about their loved ones and in some cases don ’ t even know what hospital they are in .
Within a week of the initial outbreak in Hong Kong , at least 16 people were sick .
Besides the airport and train screenings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ laws and placed all of the territory ’ s health facilities on high alert .
Supplies of face masks have sold out , and Hong Kong nerves are on edge .
One of the latest patients , a Chinese University of Hong Kong student , was removed from the dormitory on the night of Jan. 5 , with photos and video of the event widely circulated on social media .
Given extreme political tensions that have left Hong Kong in a state of protest for months , efforts to implement quarantine and infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rumors about the government ’ s real motives .
As of Jan. 8 , a bulletin put the number of cases in Wuhan at 111 .
Meanwhile , in Singapore this week , a 3-year-old girl whose family had visited Wuhan over the holidays came down with severe pneumonia on returning home .
Health authorities there have ruled out all known viruses and bacteria as causes of her illness and placed her in quarantine .
Alarms were also raised in Taiwan , but an alleged case of Wuhan pneumonia was misdiagnosed .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s fish market are proved , and the virus that has caused this outbreak did spread from the facility , the mystery only deepens .
There are no known fish viruses that cause pneumonia in humans .
Bacteria , fungi , and parasites , yes—but not viruses .
It is rumored , though , that the huge fish market also housed live snakes , wildlife , rabbits , and birds .
The 2003 SARS outbreak began in a Guangzhou live animal market and spread from the slaughter of infected civets .
As a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on New Year ’ s Day .
Both Chinese authorities and the World Health Organization ( WHO ) insist that there is no evidence of person-to-person transmission of the virus ( or whatever it may be ) , but a week after the closure of the market , new cases are appearing , their origins unexplained .
On Jan. 8 Chinese scientists informed foreign colleagues that the Wuhan pneumonia appears to be caused by a previously unknown coronavirus—a cousin of SARS and of MERS ( Middle East Respiratory Syndrome ) , which has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabia .
The latest information contradicts pervious claims that the mystery virus was only 4 percent genetically akin to SARS .
If this is a coronavirus disease , it is almost certainly capable of being passed from person-to-person via contact with an infected person ’ s saliva , nasal fluids , or uncleaned hands .
For the latest outbreak , the conclusion of that sorry tale is the best-case scenario .
The worst may be a repeat of the SARS epidemic .
As early as December 2002 , the Chinese government knew there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ province but did not alert WHO or neighbor nations .
When a SARS patient fled Guangzhou , crossing into Hong Kong and staying at the Metropole Hotel , nobody in the local health establishment knew anything about the virus .
He stayed on the hotel ’ s ninth floor , where many other guests also became infected with SARS before continuing their travels , unknowingly taking the virus with them to Beijing , Hanoi , Singapore , and Toronto and thereby sparking the global outbreak .
Eventually , SARS infected and killed people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have prevented that tragedy but instead chose secrecy and denial .
It wasn ’ t until April 2003 that Beijing admitted the extent of local SARS cases , prompting a mass exodus from the capital city of tens of thousands of workers , students , and the like , who carried the virus to their hometowns .
Chinese health and police authorities were only able to stop the nation ’ s epidemic by assuming that the entire population might be sick , setting up fever check stations that anyone in the country would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anybody whose temperature was abnormally high into hastily constructed isolation treatment units .
By July 2003 , WHO declared China SARS free—for the time being .
The lesson of SARS was clear : Do not cover up outbreaks .
In 2005 , the World Health Assembly passed the International Health Regulations ( IHR ) , which require swift notification to WHO of any significant outbreaks , as well as transparency and global cooperation on subsequent scientific and clinical investigations .
China not only agreed to the IHR but also backed Hong Kong SARS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where she served as director-general from 2007 to 2017 .
Yet in the current outbreak , very little information of any kind has been provided by authorities in Wuhan or Beijing .
China appears more interested in maintaining control by arresting those who would spread details than in abiding by the principles of the international regulations it signed .
Its strategy is especially dangerous in Hong Kong , where tensions between locals and the mainland are already very high .
The Wuhan mystery illness could turn out to be something relatively benign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heal and go home , no worse for wear .
But that doesn ’ t seem likely .
The more widely cases spread , and the more information that comes out about the potential virus involved , the harder it becomes to accept claims that people become infected only by contact with market fish or wildlife and the greater the concern that the illness is spreading from person to person .
That makes the approaching , heavily traveled Lunar New Year holidays all the more concerning , recalling the countrywide spread of SARS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Fighting outbreaks requires trust .
And trust requires openness .
It is in Beijing ’ s own interest to regain public faith in its willingness to act as a positive force in global public health by providing swift , reliable information on disease outbreaks .
It would be OK for Beijing to say , “ We don ’ t know what it is , so be patient .
We ’ re working on it.
” It would even be OK to say , “ We have no idea how this virus is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease detectives on the job trying to figure it out.
” But there needs to be some honest and regular communication .
And it needs to start before the Lunar New Year .

Here we go again.
A mysterious outbreak sickens people in China, causing panic in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan as the world awaits real information from Beijing. We have been here many times before, from deadly influenza epidemics in the 1990s to SARS in 2003, with more flus since and recently even a cluster of pneumonic plague cases.
This time around, the story begins with a mysterious respiratory outbreak on Dec. 12 in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. It sent at least 59 people to isolation wards in infectious diseases hospitals, where seven are now said to be in critical condition. As is typical, Beijing has kept mum about the outbreak, aside from insisting that the scientists—including non-Chinese—toiling to identify the culprit microorganism need to maintain secrecy and that there is no evidence that it can be spread from person to person. In fact, the government delayed notifying anybody about the pneumonia outbreak until Wuhan city officials acknowledged it two weeks after its apparent onset. In part because of the delay, the disease spread—according to some sources, there have been at least 16 suspected cases so far in restive Hong Kong and one putative case in Singapore—and Beijing has threatened to jail individuals who convey further information about the disease on social media.
The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping is doing itself no favors by handling outbreaks in such a brutal and secretive fashion. Regardless of whatever legitimate scientific inquiry may now be underway, the lack of transparency and domestic repression of so-called rumormongers simply fuel international suspicions of a cover-up, perhaps of a larger-than-admitted epidemic. Most of the news media worldwide has compared the Wuhan outbreak to the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic, which spread from mainland China to nearly 30 nations, sickening upwards of 8,000 people, killing 774, and sowing panic around the world.
China would do well to remember the lessons of that outbreak—particularly the humiliation its leaders suffered from anger across Asia—and open the lid on daily information on the Wuhan pneumonia investigation. And it had better do so before Jan. 25, the Lunar New Year, when millions of Chinese pass through the nation’s high-speed train hub of Wuhan on their way to celebrate the holiday with relatives.
As of this writing, it seems that the new outbreak started in, or around, a very large indoor fish market in the city of Wuhan, which has a population of more than 11 million and is located south of Beijing in Hubei province. Whatever the precise origin, most of the subsequent infections have been in Wuhan. Two of China’s major rivers—the Yangtze and Han—flow through the city, making it one of China’s oldest and most important centers of commerce. It is also a hub in China’s vast high-speed railway system, which carries millions of passengers daily. In other words, the latest outbreak has not struck some remote outpost, as has been the case with other epidemics, including Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but has arisen in a central hub in a country that is, itself, at the center of international trade and travel.
The Medical Administration of Wuhan Municipal Health Committee first raised the alarm on Dec. 30, when it posted a red alert on its website, declaring an “urgent notice on the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause.” Local reporters who called the Health Committee hotline were merely told that there was a pneumonia outbreak of unknown cause involving 27 patients, most of whom were connected in some way to the South China Seafood Market. The patients exhibited respiratory distress, reduced white blood cell counts, and high fevers, and they failed to improve with antibiotic treatment. A viral cause was suspected.
On New Year’s Eve, Hubei provincial authorities put out a report announcing that an official inquiry concurred that “27 cases of viral pneumonia have been found, all of which were diagnosed with viral pneumonia/pulmonary infection. Of the 27 cases, seven were critically ill, and the remaining cases were controllable. Two of them improved and were expected to be discharged soon.”
That night, Hong Kong authorities began tightening security, acknowledging that three travelers who had been in Wuhan had ended up in hospitals in the territory suffering respiratory distress. One woman was being treated in Princess Margaret Hospital, which managed many of the 2003 SARS cases. Along with Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan also began conducting temperature screenings at airports and train stations, hoping to spot feverish pneumonia carriers before they could spread whatever the mysterious disease might be.
Then, on New Year’s Day, alleged medical documents appeared on Chinese social media and Twitter purporting to show that the outbreak was, in fact, caused by the SARS virus, which is a member of the coronavirus family. But by Jan. 3, Chinese authorities said they had ruled out several types of pneumonia, as well as SARS, noting that the mystery agent was not a coronavirus and bore less than 4 percent genetic similarity with SARS. Concern about another SARS epidemic was ill-placed, authorities said, and they arrested eight individuals from Wuhan, who now face severe punishments for “publishing false information on the internet without verification.”
David Paulk, editor of the Shanghai-based Sixth Tone news website, noted on a page that has since been removed that the crime of spreading rumors can lead to seven years’ imprisonment in China. Last year, a man was detained for 10 days for “spreading rumors” on WeChat about a H7N9 flu outbreak in Haikou. In 2018, a man went to prison for falsely claiming that thousands of people had been hospitalized after eating tainted watermelons.
“People spread rumors precisely because the authorities didn’t respond in a timely manner, so how can we be blamed?”
The reason rumors spread so easily is clear. As Paulk translated one post that has since been removed on Weibo, “People spread rumors precisely because the authorities didn’t respond in a timely manner, so how can we be blamed? Don’t I have the right to know the truth, be afraid, and try to save myself?” Another person wrote, “How is this a rumor?” on the Wuhan police’s Weibo account, according to the South China Morning Post. “This outbreak happened. The public was spreading information because there was nothing from the officials for an entire day.” The Post also reports that families of the hospitalized patients in Wuhan haven’t received information about their loved ones and in some cases don’t even know what hospital they are in.
Within a week of the initial outbreak in Hong Kong, at least 16 people were sick. Besides the airport and train screenings, Hong Kong health authorities have activated quarantine laws and placed all of the territory’s health facilities on high alert. Supplies of face masks have sold out, and Hong Kong nerves are on edge. One of the latest patients, a Chinese University of Hong Kong student, was removed from the dormitory on the night of Jan. 5, with photos and video of the event widely circulated on social media. Given extreme political tensions that have left Hong Kong in a state of protest for months, efforts to implement quarantine and infection control in the territory have already sparked rumors about the government’s real motives. As of Jan. 8, a bulletin put the number of cases in Wuhan at 111.
Meanwhile, in Singapore this week, a 3-year-old girl whose family had visited Wuhan over the holidays came down with severe pneumonia on returning home. Health authorities there have ruled out all known viruses and bacteria as causes of her illness and placed her in quarantine.
Alarms were also raised in Taiwan, but an alleged case of Wuhan pneumonia was misdiagnosed.
If these cases’ connection to Wuhan’s fish market are proved, and the virus that has caused this outbreak did spread from the facility, the mystery only deepens. There are no known fish viruses that cause pneumonia in humans. Bacteria, fungi, and parasites, yes—but not viruses. It is rumored, though, that the huge fish market also housed live snakes, wildlife, rabbits, and birds. The 2003 SARS outbreak began in a Guangzhou live animal market and spread from the slaughter of infected civets.
As a precaution, Wuhan authorities closed the market on New Year’s Day. Both Chinese authorities and the World Health Organization (WHO) insist that there is no evidence of person-to-person transmission of the virus (or whatever it may be), but a week after the closure of the market, new cases are appearing, their origins unexplained.
On Jan. 8 Chinese scientists informed foreign colleagues that the Wuhan pneumonia appears to be caused by a previously unknown coronavirus—a cousin of SARS and of MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), which has primarily infected people and camels in Saudi Arabia. The latest information contradicts pervious claims that the mystery virus was only 4 percent genetically akin to SARS. If this is a coronavirus disease, it is almost certainly capable of being passed from person-to-person via contact with an infected person’s saliva, nasal fluids, or uncleaned hands.
Last November, after two people were hospitalized in Beijing with pneumonic plague, Chinese officials delayed reporting the cases to WHO for more than two weeks. A number of mysteries about the illness remain outstanding, including its connection to a nearby rat infestation, reported plague cases in Mongolia, and its ultimate resolution. After a flurry of coverage in Chinese media, the story died out, government officials issued no further statements, and it isn’t known how extensive the problem may have grown.
For the latest outbreak, the conclusion of that sorry tale is the best-case scenario. The worst may be a repeat of the SARS epidemic. As early as December 2002, the Chinese government knew there was a new respiratory disease in Guangdong province but did not alert WHO or neighbor nations. When a SARS patient fled Guangzhou, crossing into Hong Kong and staying at the Metropole Hotel, nobody in the local health establishment knew anything about the virus. He stayed on the hotel’s ninth floor, where many other guests also became infected with SARS before continuing their travels, unknowingly taking the virus with them to Beijing, Hanoi, Singapore, and Toronto and thereby sparking the global outbreak.
Eventually, SARS infected and killed people all around the world. China could have prevented that tragedy but instead chose secrecy and denial. It wasn’t until April 2003 that Beijing admitted the extent of local SARS cases, prompting a mass exodus from the capital city of tens of thousands of workers, students, and the like, who carried the virus to their hometowns. Chinese health and police authorities were only able to stop the nation’s epidemic by assuming that the entire population might be sick, setting up fever check stations that anyone in the country would encounter several times a day and putting anybody whose temperature was abnormally high into hastily constructed isolation treatment units. By July 2003, WHO declared China SARS free—for the time being.
The lesson of SARS was clear: Do not cover up outbreaks. In 2005, the World Health Assembly passed the International Health Regulations (IHR), which require swift notification to WHO of any significant outbreaks, as well as transparency and global cooperation on subsequent scientific and clinical investigations. China not only agreed to the IHR but also backed Hong Kong SARS fighter Margaret Chan for leadership of WHO, where she served as director-general from 2007 to 2017.
Yet in the current outbreak, very little information of any kind has been provided by authorities in Wuhan or Beijing. China appears more interested in maintaining control by arresting those who would spread details than in abiding by the principles of the international regulations it signed. Its strategy is especially dangerous in Hong Kong, where tensions between locals and the mainland are already very high.
The Wuhan mystery illness could turn out to be something relatively benign, and all of the patients may heal and go home, no worse for wear. But that doesn’t seem likely. The more widely cases spread, and the more information that comes out about the potential virus involved, the harder it becomes to accept claims that people become infected only by contact with market fish or wildlife and the greater the concern that the illness is spreading from person to person. That makes the approaching, heavily traveled Lunar New Year holidays all the more concerning, recalling the countrywide spread of SARS by May Day holiday vacationers in 2003.
Fighting outbreaks requires trust. And trust requires openness. It is in Beijing’s own interest to regain public faith in its willingness to act as a positive force in global public health by providing swift, reliable information on disease outbreaks. It would be OK for Beijing to say, “We don’t know what it is, so be patient. We’re working on it.” It would even be OK to say, “We have no idea how this virus is spreading, but we have teams of disease detectives on the job trying to figure it out.”
But there needs to be some honest and regular communication. And it needs to start before the Lunar New Year.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-08--Flanked by Military Brass, Trump Backs Off War Footing

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday backed off threats of military retaliation after Iran launched more than a dozen missiles against American and coalition targets in Iraq , opening the door to de-escalation even while slapping new sanctions on Tehran .
Flanked by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , Defense Secretary Mark Esper , and the nation ’ s top military brass , Trump ’ s address more than 12 hours after the attack sent mixed signals .
Noting that Iran “ appears to be standing down , ” Trump said he will continue to evaluate “ options ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did not announce additional military steps , instead deciding to slap “ additional punishing economic sanctions ” on Tehran .
Trump confirmed that no American lives were lost in the attack—a red line for the administration—due to intelligence from an “ early warning system that worked very well.
” There also appeared to be no Iraqi or British lives lost .
Following the attacks on Tuesday , there were signs both sides wanted to de-escalate after a U.S. military strike that killed a senior Iranian military leader , Qassem Suleimani .
In Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resolve the threat peacefully .
Meanwhile , reports emerged that Iran deliberately used older missiles and was not intending to kill Americans .
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said early Wednesday local time that Tehran had “ concluded ” its attacks and did “ not seek escalation or war.
” “ The fact that we have this great military does not mean we have to use it .
We do not want to use it , ” Trump said .
“ The United States is ready to embrace peace.
” Trump also called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involved in the Middle East process , ” in a signal that the United States would consult with allies that were alarmed by the dramatic escalation in tensions following the U.S. military strike that killed a senior Iranian military figure .
He did not offer specifics on NATO ’ s increased role .
At the same time , Trump raised the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran , which he withdrew from in 2018 , and called on allies to “ all work together toward making a deal with Iran that makes the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Key European allies , however , still support the earlier deal .
Despite widespread speculation over the past few days that the United States will be ending its military presence in Iraq—including a draft letter the Pentagon called a “ mistake ” indicating as much—Trump gave no signs a withdrawal was imminent .
Instead , he called for the United States and Iran to work together to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group , a “ natural enemy.
” Still , Trump ’ s remarks came as NATO announced it is temporarily suspending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ battling the Islamic State .
Canada and the United Kingdom also announced they would temporarily move or withdraw their forces from Iraq in response to the heightened tensions .
Esper was expected to brief members of Congress on the situation on Wednesday afternoon , according to a Pentagon spokesperson .
Some experts expressed optimism that both sides are standing down but cautioned that tensions were still sky-high , and the next round of reprisals could come indirectly through Iranian proxies in the region—with or without Tehran ’ s consent .
Suleimani kept a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the region , and in the wake of his death , it ’ s unclear whether they will continue to wait for Tehran ’ s green light before carrying out attacks .
“ We are going to have the possibility of proxies acting on their own , without the kind of command and control that Qassem Suleimani had developed and had been able to exercise the actions of these proxies , ” said Randa Slim , a scholar at the Middle East Institute .
“ There is the possibility of some of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ … arguing they are doing this to avenge the death of Suleimani.
” “ It ’ s tempting to hope that both sides can now declare victory and go home .
Yet it ’ s unlikely that we ’ ve now seen the full measure of Iran ’ s retaliation for the Soleimani killing , ” said Richard Fontaine , CEO of the Center for a New American Security , a Washington-based think tank .
“ The most acute phase may have passed , but the crisis goes on.
” Update , Jan. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ updated to include additional quotes from Randa Slim .

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday backed off threats of military retaliation after Iran launched more than a dozen missiles against American and coalition targets in Iraq, opening the door to de-escalation even while slapping new sanctions on Tehran.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday backed off threats of military retaliation after Iran launched more than a dozen missiles against American and coalition targets in Iraq, opening the door to de-escalation even while slapping new sanctions on Tehran.
Flanked by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and the nation’s top military brass, Trump’s address more than 12 hours after the attack sent mixed signals. Noting that Iran “appears to be standing down,” Trump said he will continue to evaluate “options” in response to Iranian aggression. But he did not announce additional military steps, instead deciding to slap “additional punishing economic sanctions” on Tehran.
Trump confirmed that no American lives were lost in the attack—a red line for the administration—due to intelligence from an “early warning system that worked very well.” There also appeared to be no Iraqi or British lives lost.
Following the attacks on Tuesday, there were signs both sides wanted to de-escalate after a U.S. military strike that killed a senior Iranian military leader, Qassem Suleimani. In Washington, lawmakers called on the president to resolve the threat peacefully. Meanwhile, reports emerged that Iran deliberately used older missiles and was not intending to kill Americans. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said early Wednesday local time that Tehran had “concluded” its attacks and did “not seek escalation or war.”
“The fact that we have this great military does not mean we have to use it. We do not want to use it,” Trump said. “The United States is ready to embrace peace.”
Trump also called on NATO to “become much more involved in the Middle East process,” in a signal that the United States would consult with allies that were alarmed by the dramatic escalation in tensions following the U.S. military strike that killed a senior Iranian military figure. He did not offer specifics on NATO’s increased role.
At the same time, Trump raised the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran, which he withdrew from in 2018, and called on allies to “all work together toward making a deal with Iran that makes the world a safer and more peaceful place.” Key European allies, however, still support the earlier deal.
Despite widespread speculation over the past few days that the United States will be ending its military presence in Iraq—including a draft letter the Pentagon called a “mistake” indicating as much—Trump gave no signs a withdrawal was imminent. Instead, he called for the United States and Iran to work together to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group, a “natural enemy.”
Still, Trump’s remarks came as NATO announced it is temporarily suspending some of its training of Iraqi soldiers battling the Islamic State. Canada and the United Kingdom also announced they would temporarily move or withdraw their forces from Iraq in response to the heightened tensions.
Esper was expected to brief members of Congress on the situation on Wednesday afternoon, according to a Pentagon spokesperson.
Some experts expressed optimism that both sides are standing down but cautioned that tensions were still sky-high, and the next round of reprisals could come indirectly through Iranian proxies in the region—with or without Tehran’s consent.
Suleimani kept a tight leash on Iranian proxy groups in the region, and in the wake of his death, it’s unclear whether they will continue to wait for Tehran’s green light before carrying out attacks.
“We are going to have the possibility of proxies acting on their own, without the kind of command and control that Qassem Suleimani had developed and had been able to exercise the actions of these proxies,” said Randa Slim, a scholar at the Middle East Institute. “There is the possibility of some of these operators acting outside the rules of engagement … arguing they are doing this to avenge the death of Suleimani.”
“It’s tempting to hope that both sides can now declare victory and go home. Yet it’s unlikely that we’ve now seen the full measure of Iran’s retaliation for the Soleimani killing,” said Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. “The most acute phase may have passed, but the crisis goes on.”
Update, Jan. 8, 2020: This article was updated to include additional quotes from Randa Slim.