foreignpolicy--2020-11-07--The Election Is Over. The Ideological Fight Is About to Start.

The Election Is Over .
The Ideological Fight Is About to Start .
Go ahead , exhale .
Barring judicial intervention , the U.S. presidential election is probably over , even if President Donald Trump spends the rest of his life whining that he actually won .
More importantly , while Trump may have lost the presidency , Trumpism is still alive .
And that means the battle for the soul of U.S. foreign policy will continue .
Former Vice President Joe Biden now finds himself in an unenviable position .
Assuming the Republican Party retains control of the Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won ’ t be able to pass serious domestic legislation .
He could turn to foreign policy instead , because presidents have more latitude in that arena and it ’ s been a major interest of his throughout his career—although even on foreign policy , Biden may have to struggle with a Republican Senate to appoint a national-security cabinet of his choosing .
And there ’ s one other problem : Most Americans don ’ t care that much about foreign affairs , and focusing on foreign policy will lead many to accuse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even if he scored a few big foreign-policy wins , it won ’ t make him or the Democrats significantly more popular .
Biden and his cohorts will be quick to mend fences with traditional U.S. allies , but warmer ties won ’ t translate into direct , immediate , and tangible benefits for most Americans .
His best hope is hang tough and to try to flip the Senate in 2022 , when more Republican seats are in play , and have serious legislation ready to go in the third year of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the present debate over the United States ’ role in the world will go on .
The protagonists in this looming battle can be divided ( at the risk of oversimplifying ) into four broad camps , distinguished by how they answer two critical questions .
First , what is the proper role of the state , and especially the federal government ?
Second , should the United States pursue an ambitious foreign policy that seeks to shape politics in many places , or should it act with greater selectiveness and restraint ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ many Americans favor a strong , competent , and well-funded federal government which can use its powers to regulate society for the greater good ( however defined ) .
The classic expression of this view is the progressive liberal or New Deal state , in which government authority seeks to provide collective goods such as education and infrastructure , to address broad social issues such as racial or economic inequality , to avoid unnecessary harms by regulating key industries ( including the financial sector ) , and to promote patriotism and national unity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this vision .
With but a few exceptions ( such as providing for the common defense ) they want to keep the federal government small and taxes low .
They see government as a potential threat to liberty and believe its interference saps economic growth and reduces individual freedom .
They favor states ’ rights , local autonomy for schools and law enforcement , and for the most part don ’ t think the government should intervene on critical social or moral issues .
They may be just as patriotic as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the United States is not that it has a strong and effective government , but rather that it doesn ’ t .
As for the United States ’ global role , a substantial fraction of the population believe U.S. foreign policy should be energetic , ambitious , engaged with the world , and committed to certain core political values .
They want the United States to be a global leader , though not necessarily the only one .
As I ’ ve noted elsewhere , such views are the norm within the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , these Americans think the United States should be committed to the forward defense of its ( numerous ) allies , conducting counterterrorism missions and intelligence activities ( including covert action ) in many places , and working to spread democracy , competitive markets , human rights , and the rule of law to other countries .
Proponents of this view may have been somewhat chastened by recent setbacks , but they have not abandoned their belief in the indispensability of the United States ’ global role or the desirability of promoting a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But a substantial fraction of Americans don ’ t buy this view anymore ( if they ever did ) , and especially not if it costs a lot and doesn ’ t deliver as promised .
Hardly any of this group embraces genuine Fortress America-style isolationism , but its members believe the United States should be more selective in its overseas commitments , shrink its global military footprint , reduce defense spending and rely more on diplomacy , and pursue a much more restrained foreign policy .
Combining the two dichotomies yields @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the following table : Libertarians are located in the first quadrant .
They are passionate about preserving liberty and individual choice , and notoriously suspicious of government power .
They acknowledge the need for government but want to limit its power as much as possible .
Low taxes , minimal regulations , unfettered markets , and individual freedom are the libertarian bywords .
COVID-19 may have exposed some of the obvious flaws in this perspective , but it hasn ’ t and won ’ t disappear .
Not surprisingly , members of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy .
They have no problem with Americans trading or investing abroad , of course ; that ’ s just the free market at work .
But they believe the United States should not undertake security commitments outside the Western Hemisphere and should rely instead on its robust nuclear deterrent and the vast Atlantic and Pacific oceans to protect the country against most dangers .
Even China ’ s emergence as a possible peer competitor does not bother them very much , because they believe the United States could remain secure , prosperous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese influence equaled or surpassed its own .
Embracing a new cold war with China is to be avoided , therefore , because it is likely to be expensive and would require maintaining a large national security establishment that inevitably threatens liberty at home .
Mainstream Republicans inhabit the second quadrant .
Rhetorically , at least , this group shares the libertarians ’ rejection of a strong federal government ( though some of them are happy to take advantage of tax incentives and other forms of corporate welfare ) .
Ever since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the scariest nine words in the English language were “ I ’ m from the government , and I ’ m here to help ” ) —the soul of the Republican Party has been about cutting taxes and entitlements , crippling the Internal Revenue Service ’ s enforcement capacity , and portraying all government institutions save the national security establishment as wasteful if not evil .
The GOP has increasingly sought to exploit racial divisions and hot-button social issues ( e.g.
, abortion and gay marriage ) , even though this tactic undermines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s ability to operate effectively on the world stage .
Of late , they ’ ve even declared war on higher education and science itself , which does not augur well for preserving the United States ’ technological edge .
Yet at the same time , mainstream Republicans want the U.S. military to be second to none , and they generally favor using it early and often overseas .
This is the worldview of the George W. Bush presidency ’ s neoconservatives , as well as prominent senators such as Lindsay Graham and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential candidates such as Sen. Tom Cotton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo .
Unlike libertarians , whose perspective is at least intellectually consistent , mainstream Republicans answer our two key questions in fundamentally contradictory ways .
If you support an ambitious foreign policy , including the promotion of free trade , you need a strong , well-functioning state to deal with the economic dislocations such a policy will produce back home .
You also need to provide social benefits to keep the population healthy and well educated and to promote genuine patriotism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make sure the nation ’ s universities and research laboratories remain the world ’ s best .
Starving government may appeal to the GOP ’ s wealthy corporate class , but it is at odds with the desire to run the world and the concomitant need to wage frequent wars .
Moreover , allowing education , infrastructure , and scientific research to decay undermines long-term economic strength , and treating important foreign-policy issues primarily as opportunities to score partisan political points ( see under : Benghazi ) erodes the bipartisan support that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ( and some but not all so-called restrainers ) reside in the third quadrant .
They want the state to be strong , well funded , and working to address economic inequality , climate change , racial injustice , police reform , financial regulation , and the like .
Their focus is primarily on what the government should do at home , however , not on what it might do abroad .
Moreover , they see a direct tradeoff between these goals : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the more money the Pentagon will require , thereby reducing funding for domestic programs .
Progressives also believe that an overly ambitious foreign policy commits the United States to supporting a lot of unsavory governments around the world , thereby compromising core liberal values , causing unnecessary human suffering , and making the United States look hypocritical .
To be sure , there are important divisions within this broad group too ( as there are in the others ) .
Some progressives want the U.S. to use its power to promote human rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this goal would put the country back on the slippery slope to military intervention .
Some restrainers ( for instance , me ) want the United States to eschew regime change , get Europe to defend itself , and do more to uphold a balance of power in Asia , while other progressives oppose confronting China for fear of sparking a new cold war .
These differences notwithstanding , people found in this quadrant have a consistent worldview as well : They all favor doing ( somewhat ) less abroad so that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and political capital to fixing things at home .
Finally , old-guard Democrats are found mostly in the fourth quadrant .
They respect the power of government and have weaned themselves from the neoliberal market orientation seen during the presidency of Bill Clinton .
They share the progressives ’ belief that government exists to shape society in positive ways , but they are still committed to the activist version of U.S. global leadership that was the norm from 1945 to 2015 .
They like all those familiar foreign-policy institutions—NATO , the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ et cetera—and they want the United States to take the lead in strengthening or revising them and in building new ones to address 21st-century issues .
Deep down , they believe it is the United States ’ role to spread certain ideals to other societies , if not quite as cavalierly as it has in recent years .
And as Biden repeats almost daily , they want to heal divisions and bring the country together again ( a view that most progressives share ) .
The problem here is not inconsistency : A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong state and a united population .
The problem , rather , is that even a strong state and strong bipartisan backing is not enough to pull it off successfully , and especially in an era where the United States is no longer an unchallenged unipolar power .
Social engineering is hard enough in one country—as the United States ’ present level of polarization amply demonstrates—and it is well-nigh impossible in societies that are very different from the United States ’ and that would-be social engineers do not understand very well .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multilateral institution-building in key areas such as technology or climate , there would be little difference between them and the progressives .
But if Biden can ’ t get anything done here at home , will the old-guard Democrats be able to resist the temptation to try to do too much abroad ?
As for Trump ( and Trumpism ) , he ’ s all over the map and thus hard to pigeon-hole .
Trump has sometimes talked like a libertarian ( i.e.
, he doesn ’ t like taxes or regulations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the rule of law , and hates the so-called deep state ) .
At other times he sounded like a Sanders-style progressive , saying he was opposed to stupid wars and wanted to protect U.S. workers from foreign competition .
But once you look past his posturing , it ’ s clear that he governed more like a mainstream Republican , consistently favoring big defense budgets , claiming unchecked executive authority , using drone strikes , targeted killings , and other familiar foreign-policy tactics , and repeatedly stoking racial and social divisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pedigree : former Presidents Richard Nixon and George W. Bush used them too .
This pattern helps explain why the GOP went along with his destructive antics ; in the end , Trump was just a cruder and more transparent expression of the modern GOP id .
Even if Trump decides not to run again in 2024 ( hardly a foregone conclusion ) , the likely contenders ( Pompeo , Cotton , Vice President Mike Pence , Sen. Marco Rubio , former U.N .
Ambassador Nikki Haley , et cetera ) will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this reason alone , it ’ s hard to see anyone in the Republican Party daring to deviate from the current GOP brand , even if the alligator-in-chief no longer rules the swamp .
What should you expect for the next four years ?
Foreign policy is full of surprises , but I ’ ll bet Biden presides over a foreign policy that is closer to the progressive version of restraint than the establishment credentials of his main advisors might lead you to think .
There ’ s no appetite in the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ list at home .
Think COVID-19 , economic recovery , Black Lives Matter , electoral reform , et cetera .
Biden will have his hands full , the progressive wing of his own party will oppose any hint of old-style liberal hegemony , and he won ’ t get a scintilla of cooperation from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP .
This sorry situation will make it difficult or impossible for the United States to reach effective and much-needed agreements on climate , digital governance , global health , or trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the assumption that doing something is preferable to doing nothing , but paralysis is no improvement either .
Unfortunately , that ’ s what the election delivered .

Go ahead, exhale. Barring judicial intervention, the U.S. presidential election is probably over, even if President Donald Trump spends the rest of his life whining that he actually won. More importantly, while Trump may have lost the presidency, Trumpism is still alive. And that means the battle for the soul of U.S. foreign policy will continue.
Go ahead, exhale. Barring judicial intervention, the U.S. presidential election is probably over, even if President Donald Trump spends the rest of his life whining that he actually won. More importantly, while Trump may have lost the presidency, Trumpism is still alive. And that means the battle for the soul of U.S. foreign policy will continue.
Former Vice President Joe Biden now finds himself in an unenviable position. Assuming the Republican Party retains control of the Senate (as seems likely), Biden won’t be able to pass serious domestic legislation. He could turn to foreign policy instead, because presidents have more latitude in that arena and it’s been a major interest of his throughout his career—although even on foreign policy, Biden may have to struggle with a Republican Senate to appoint a national-security cabinet of his choosing. And there’s one other problem: Most Americans don’t care that much about foreign affairs, and focusing on foreign policy will lead many to accuse him of neglecting the home front. Even if he scored a few big foreign-policy wins, it won’t make him or the Democrats significantly more popular. Biden and his cohorts will be quick to mend fences with traditional U.S. allies, but warmer ties won’t translate into direct, immediate, and tangible benefits for most Americans. His best hope is hang tough and to try to flip the Senate in 2022, when more Republican seats are in play, and have serious legislation ready to go in the third year of his presidency.
In the meantime, the present debate over the United States’ role in the world will go on. The protagonists in this looming battle can be divided (at the risk of oversimplifying) into four broad camps, distinguished by how they answer two critical questions. First, what is the proper role of the state, and especially the federal government? Second, should the United States pursue an ambitious foreign policy that seeks to shape politics in many places, or should it act with greater selectiveness and restraint?
With regard to the first question, many Americans favor a strong, competent, and well-funded federal government which can use its powers to regulate society for the greater good (however defined). The classic expression of this view is the progressive liberal or New Deal state, in which government authority seeks to provide collective goods such as education and infrastructure, to address broad social issues such as racial or economic inequality, to avoid unnecessary harms by regulating key industries (including the financial sector), and to promote patriotism and national unity.
But other Americans reject key elements of this vision. With but a few exceptions (such as providing for the common defense) they want to keep the federal government small and taxes low. They see government as a potential threat to liberty and believe its interference saps economic growth and reduces individual freedom. They favor states’ rights, local autonomy for schools and law enforcement, and for the most part don’t think the government should intervene on critical social or moral issues. They may be just as patriotic as the first group, but what they like about the United States is not that it has a strong and effective government, but rather that it doesn’t.
As for the United States’ global role, a substantial fraction of the population believe U.S. foreign policy should be energetic, ambitious, engaged with the world, and committed to certain core political values. They want the United States to be a global leader, though not necessarily the only one. As I’ve noted elsewhere, such views are the norm within the foreign-policy elite. For the most part, these Americans think the United States should be committed to the forward defense of its (numerous) allies, conducting counterterrorism missions and intelligence activities (including covert action) in many places, and working to spread democracy, competitive markets, human rights, and the rule of law to other countries. Proponents of this view may have been somewhat chastened by recent setbacks, but they have not abandoned their belief in the indispensability of the United States’ global role or the desirability of promoting a global liberal order over the longer term.
But a substantial fraction of Americans don’t buy this view anymore (if they ever did), and especially not if it costs a lot and doesn’t deliver as promised. Hardly any of this group embraces genuine Fortress America-style isolationism, but its members believe the United States should be more selective in its overseas commitments, shrink its global military footprint, reduce defense spending and rely more on diplomacy, and pursue a much more restrained foreign policy.
Combining the two dichotomies yields four broad groups, as shown in the following table:
America’s Political Typology
Libertarians are located in the first quadrant. They are passionate about preserving liberty and individual choice, and notoriously suspicious of government power. They acknowledge the need for government but want to limit its power as much as possible. Low taxes, minimal regulations, unfettered markets, and individual freedom are the libertarian bywords. COVID-19 may have exposed some of the obvious flaws in this perspective, but it hasn’t and won’t disappear.
Not surprisingly, members of this group have long favored a minimalist foreign policy. They have no problem with Americans trading or investing abroad, of course; that’s just the free market at work. But they believe the United States should not undertake security commitments outside the Western Hemisphere and should rely instead on its robust nuclear deterrent and the vast Atlantic and Pacific oceans to protect the country against most dangers. Even China’s emergence as a possible peer competitor does not bother them very much, because they believe the United States could remain secure, prosperous, and free in a world where Chinese influence equaled or surpassed its own. Embracing a new cold war with China is to be avoided, therefore, because it is likely to be expensive and would require maintaining a large national security establishment that inevitably threatens liberty at home.
Mainstream Republicans inhabit the second quadrant. Rhetorically, at least, this group shares the libertarians’ rejection of a strong federal government (though some of them are happy to take advantage of tax incentives and other forms of corporate welfare). Ever since the presidency of Ronald Reagan—who famously quipped that the scariest nine words in the English language were “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help”)—the soul of the Republican Party has been about cutting taxes and entitlements, crippling the Internal Revenue Service’s enforcement capacity, and portraying all government institutions save the national security establishment as wasteful if not evil. The GOP has increasingly sought to exploit racial divisions and hot-button social issues (e.g., abortion and gay marriage), even though this tactic undermines national unity and reduces the country’s ability to operate effectively on the world stage. Of late, they’ve even declared war on higher education and science itself, which does not augur well for preserving the United States’ technological edge.
Yet at the same time, mainstream Republicans want the U.S. military to be second to none, and they generally favor using it early and often overseas. This is the worldview of the George W. Bush presidency’s neoconservatives, as well as prominent senators such as Lindsay Graham and the late John McCain, and would-be presidential candidates such as Sen. Tom Cotton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Unlike libertarians, whose perspective is at least intellectually consistent, mainstream Republicans answer our two key questions in fundamentally contradictory ways. If you support an ambitious foreign policy, including the promotion of free trade, you need a strong, well-functioning state to deal with the economic dislocations such a policy will produce back home. You also need to provide social benefits to keep the population healthy and well educated and to promote genuine patriotism and social unity, and you want to make sure the nation’s universities and research laboratories remain the world’s best. Starving government may appeal to the GOP’s wealthy corporate class, but it is at odds with the desire to run the world and the concomitant need to wage frequent wars. Moreover, allowing education, infrastructure, and scientific research to decay undermines long-term economic strength, and treating important foreign-policy issues primarily as opportunities to score partisan political points (see under: Benghazi) erodes the bipartisan support that an ambitious global strategy requires.
Progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (and some but not all so-called restrainers) reside in the third quadrant. They want the state to be strong, well funded, and working to address economic inequality, climate change, racial injustice, police reform, financial regulation, and the like. Their focus is primarily on what the government should do at home, however, not on what it might do abroad. Moreover, they see a direct tradeoff between these goals: The more ambitious U.S. foreign policy is, the more money the Pentagon will require, thereby reducing funding for domestic programs. Progressives also believe that an overly ambitious foreign policy commits the United States to supporting a lot of unsavory governments around the world, thereby compromising core liberal values, causing unnecessary human suffering, and making the United States look hypocritical.
To be sure, there are important divisions within this broad group too (as there are in the others). Some progressives want the U.S. to use its power to promote human rights around the world, while others worry this goal would put the country back on the slippery slope to military intervention. Some restrainers (for instance, me) want the United States to eschew regime change, get Europe to defend itself, and do more to uphold a balance of power in Asia, while other progressives oppose confronting China for fear of sparking a new cold war. These differences notwithstanding, people found in this quadrant have a consistent worldview as well: They all favor doing (somewhat) less abroad so that the country can devote more time, money, and political capital to fixing things at home.
Finally, old-guard Democrats are found mostly in the fourth quadrant. They respect the power of government and have weaned themselves from the neoliberal market orientation seen during the presidency of Bill Clinton. They share the progressives’ belief that government exists to shape society in positive ways, but they are still committed to the activist version of U.S. global leadership that was the norm from 1945 to 2015. They like all those familiar foreign-policy institutions—NATO, the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, et cetera—and they want the United States to take the lead in strengthening or revising them and in building new ones to address 21st-century issues. Deep down, they believe it is the United States’ role to spread certain ideals to other societies, if not quite as cavalierly as it has in recent years. And as Biden repeats almost daily, they want to heal divisions and bring the country together again (a view that most progressives share).
The problem here is not inconsistency: A big and ambitious foreign policy needs a strong state and a united population. The problem, rather, is that even a strong state and strong bipartisan backing is not enough to pull it off successfully, and especially in an era where the United States is no longer an unchallenged unipolar power. Social engineering is hard enough in one country—as the United States’ present level of polarization amply demonstrates—and it is well-nigh impossible in societies that are very different from the United States’ and that would-be social engineers do not understand very well. If the old guard could limit itself to multilateral institution-building in key areas such as technology or climate, there would be little difference between them and the progressives. But if Biden can’t get anything done here at home, will the old-guard Democrats be able to resist the temptation to try to do too much abroad?
As for Trump (and Trumpism), he’s all over the map and thus hard to pigeon-hole. Trump has sometimes talked like a libertarian (i.e., he doesn’t like taxes or regulations, opposes government-funded health care, has contempt for the rule of law, and hates the so-called deep state). At other times he sounded like a Sanders-style progressive, saying he was opposed to stupid wars and wanted to protect U.S. workers from foreign competition. But once you look past his posturing, it’s clear that he governed more like a mainstream Republican, consistently favoring big defense budgets, claiming unchecked executive authority, using drone strikes, targeted killings, and other familiar foreign-policy tactics, and repeatedly stoking racial and social divisions. Even his tariffs have a GOP pedigree: former Presidents Richard Nixon and George W. Bush used them too. This pattern helps explain why the GOP went along with his destructive antics; in the end, Trump was just a cruder and more transparent expression of the modern GOP id. Even if Trump decides not to run again in 2024 (hardly a foregone conclusion), the likely contenders (Pompeo, Cotton, Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Marco Rubio, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, et cetera) will be eager to win his blessing. For this reason alone, it’s hard to see anyone in the Republican Party daring to deviate from the current GOP brand, even if the alligator-in-chief no longer rules the swamp.
What should you expect for the next four years? Foreign policy is full of surprises, but I’ll bet Biden presides over a foreign policy that is closer to the progressive version of restraint than the establishment credentials of his main advisors might lead you to think. There’s no appetite in the country for new wars and an enormous to-do list at home. Think COVID-19, economic recovery, Black Lives Matter, electoral reform, et cetera. Biden will have his hands full, the progressive wing of his own party will oppose any hint of old-style liberal hegemony, and he won’t get a scintilla of cooperation from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP. This sorry situation will make it difficult or impossible for the United States to reach effective and much-needed agreements on climate, digital governance, global health, or trade reform. I’m usually wary of the assumption that doing something is preferable to doing nothing, but paralysis is no improvement either. Unfortunately, that’s what the election delivered.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-07--Scottish Nationalists Hope Biden Win Means a Washington Friendlier to Independence

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Even before Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election on Saturday , but when he had it well in hand the day before , Scotland ’ s pro-independence leader took time out of her coronavirus fight to share what , for her , was very good news .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at times just now , ” First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted .
But “ today we are seeing a wee break in the clouds.
” Her Scottish National Party ( SNP ) spent years estranged from Donald Trump ’ s White House .
Now , with Biden projected to be the president-elect , the SNP is preparing a diplomatic effort to reassure Biden ’ s America about its plans .
Sturgeon , basking in sustained popular support for her independence platform , has one simple task in the United States : to show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a safe and sound European ally .
And a Biden presidency , said SNP foreign affairs spokesperson Alyn Smith , makes that much easier .
“ It increases our reach to tell Scotland ’ s story , ” said Smith , a Westminster MP .
“ We want to make sure there are no surprises in terms of what is going to be happening with Scotland ’ s constitutional journey.
” The SNP government in Edinburgh is already marching to a drumbeat it believes will end in a second independence referendum during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Boris Johnson on Friday doubled down on its refusal to allow another vote so soon after a 2014 plebiscite saw Scots narrowly opt to stay in the United Kingdom—an independence referendum that took place before Britain itself pulled out of the European Union .
SNP insiders believe that how the United States and the EU respond to the standoff inside Britain will be significant .
So how will Scotland talk to Biden , how will they try to convince him—at the very least—not to express hostility to independence ?
Through Ireland .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a U.S. perspective have been crucial in discussion of future trade talks .
We want to make sure that there is a visible Scottish angle to that , ” Smith said .
Biden , like many House Democrats , stressed that any future trade deal with the U.K. hinges on respect for the 1998 Good Friday Accords that ended decades of conflict in Northern Ireland .
“ We have got all the connections with our Irish friends .
We do not want to detract from their lobbying .
But we also have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their work , we also have an in , ” Smith said .
Smith acknowledged that Trump—who is half-Scottish—was hostile both to independence and , personally , to Sturgeon .
For Scottish nationalists , just getting Washington to dial down its hostility to their bid for independence is a good outcome .
“ Relations with a Biden White House will , I think , be more cordial than they were with the Trump administration , ” Smith concluded .

Even before Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election on Saturday, but when he had it well in hand the day before, Scotland’s pro-independence leader took time out of her coronavirus fight to share what, for her, was very good news.
Even before Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election on Saturday, but when he had it well in hand the day before, Scotland’s pro-independence leader took time out of her coronavirus fight to share what, for her, was very good news.
“The world can be a dark place at times just now,” First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted. But “today we are seeing a wee break in the clouds.”
Her Scottish National Party (SNP) spent years estranged from Donald Trump’s White House. Now, with Biden projected to be the president-elect, the SNP is preparing a diplomatic effort to reassure Biden’s America about its plans. Sturgeon, basking in sustained popular support for her independence platform, has one simple task in the United States: to show Washington that a fully sovereign Scotland will be a safe and sound European ally.
And a Biden presidency, said SNP foreign affairs spokesperson Alyn Smith, makes that much easier. “It increases our reach to tell Scotland’s story,” said Smith, a Westminster MP. “We want to make sure there are no surprises in terms of what is going to be happening with Scotland’s constitutional journey.”
The SNP government in Edinburgh is already marching to a drumbeat it believes will end in a second independence referendum during the next presidency. The Conservative government of Boris Johnson on Friday doubled down on its refusal to allow another vote so soon after a 2014 plebiscite saw Scots narrowly opt to stay in the United Kingdom—an independence referendum that took place before Britain itself pulled out of the European Union.
SNP insiders believe that how the United States and the EU respond to the standoff inside Britain will be significant. So how will Scotland talk to Biden, how will they try to convince him—at the very least—not to express hostility to independence? Through Ireland.
“The Irish aspects of Brexit from a U.S. perspective have been crucial in discussion of future trade talks. We want to make sure that there is a visible Scottish angle to that,” Smith said. Biden, like many House Democrats, stressed that any future trade deal with the U.K. hinges on respect for the 1998 Good Friday Accords that ended decades of conflict in Northern Ireland.
“We have got all the connections with our Irish friends. We do not want to detract from their lobbying. But we also have a perspective on this, and because of their work, we also have an in,” Smith said.
Smith acknowledged that Trump—who is half-Scottish—was hostile both to independence and, personally, to Sturgeon. For Scottish nationalists, just getting Washington to dial down its hostility to their bid for independence is a good outcome.
“Relations with a Biden White House will, I think, be more cordial than they were with the Trump administration,” Smith concluded.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-07--Biden Wins: Pennsylvania Called After Four Days of Suspense

Biden Wins : Pennsylvania Called After Four Days of Suspense This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States , according to projections from major news networks and the Associated Press , after carrying Pennsylvania and delivering a final blow to President Donald Trump ’ s electoral firewall of Rust Belt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early returns from Pennsylvania—seen as necessary for Trump to retake the White House—but his lead became apparent Thursday night as mail-in voters heavily favored the Democratic challenger , allowing him to carry the battleground state Hillary Clinton lost four years ago .
The victory in the Keystone State gave Biden 273 electoral votes , just clearing the threshold needed to win the White House .
CNN and NBC News were the first networks to call the presidential race just before 11:30 a.m. on Saturday .
They were followed by the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news comes after a chaotic few days after Election Day when Trump and his surrogates repeatedly—and without evidence—claimed that fraudulent mail-in ballots had put Biden ahead in Pennsylvania , Arizona , Wisconsin , Michigan , Nevada , and Georgia .
With votes still being counted , Biden clings to a narrow lead in Arizona , Nevada , and Georgia , which could ultimately give him a large majority of the Electoral College .
Speaking on Wednesday evening , as his path to victory appeared to narrow , Trump drew criticism from Democrats and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House podium that his opponents were “ trying to steal an election.
” Trump would become just the 11th incumbent U.S. president not to win reelection , and the first to lose in nearly 30 years , since George H.W .
Bush in 1992 .
But state officials found no evidence for those claims , and Trump ’ s legal efforts to stop the count , including lawsuits in Pennsylvania , Georgia , and Michigan , were unsuccessful .
Trump , who was at his golf club in Virginia when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respond to Biden ’ s victory .
“ I WON THIS ELECTION , BY A LOT !
” Trump tweeted before hitting the course .
In the days after Election Day , Biden , the former vice president , had appealed for calm but expressed confidence in the outcome as he overtook Trump in key swing states .
Biden ’ s victory also carries historic significance : His running mate , California Sen. Kamala Harris , will become both the first female vice president and also the first Black and South Asian politician @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the networks called the victory , Biden issued a conciliatory message .
“ The work ahead of us will be hard , but I promise you this : I will be a President for all Americans — whether you voted for me or not , ” Biden tweeted in the minutes after the race was called .
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared to be the first world leader to congratulate the new president-elect , tweeting , “ Congratulations , @ JoeBiden and @ KamalaHarris .
Our two countries are close friends , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a relationship that ’ s unique on the world stage .
I ’ m really looking forward to working together and building on that with you both.
” Biden ’ s projected victory sparked an outburst of jubilation in several major U.S. cities , including the banging of pots and pans and the sound of fireworks .

Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States, according to projections from major news networks and the Associated Press, after carrying Pennsylvania and delivering a final blow to President Donald Trump’s electoral firewall of Rust Belt swing states.
Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States, according to projections from major news networks and the Associated Press, after carrying Pennsylvania and delivering a final blow to President Donald Trump’s electoral firewall of Rust Belt swing states.
Biden had trailed in early returns from Pennsylvania—seen as necessary for Trump to retake the White House—but his lead became apparent Thursday night as mail-in voters heavily favored the Democratic challenger, allowing him to carry the battleground state Hillary Clinton lost four years ago. The victory in the Keystone State gave Biden 273 electoral votes, just clearing the threshold needed to win the White House.
CNN and NBC News were the first networks to call the presidential race just before 11:30 a.m. on Saturday. They were followed by the rest of the major networks and wire services.
The news comes after a chaotic few days after Election Day when Trump and his surrogates repeatedly—and without evidence—claimed that fraudulent mail-in ballots had put Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia. With votes still being counted, Biden clings to a narrow lead in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, which could ultimately give him a large majority of the Electoral College.
Speaking on Wednesday evening, as his path to victory appeared to narrow, Trump drew criticism from Democrats and some Republicans in Congress for alleging from the White House podium that his opponents were “trying to steal an election.” Trump would become just the 11th incumbent U.S. president not to win reelection, and the first to lose in nearly 30 years, since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
But state officials found no evidence for those claims, and Trump’s legal efforts to stop the count, including lawsuits in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, were unsuccessful. Trump, who was at his golf club in Virginia when the call was made, did not immediately respond to Biden’s victory.
“I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” Trump tweeted before hitting the course.
In the days after Election Day, Biden, the former vice president, had appealed for calm but expressed confidence in the outcome as he overtook Trump in key swing states. Biden’s victory also carries historic significance: His running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, will become both the first female vice president and also the first Black and South Asian politician to serve in the job.
After the networks called the victory, Biden issued a conciliatory message. “The work ahead of us will be hard, but I promise you this: I will be a President for all Americans — whether you voted for me or not,” Biden tweeted in the minutes after the race was called.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared to be the first world leader to congratulate the new president-elect, tweeting, “Congratulations, @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris. Our two countries are close friends, partners, and allies. We share a relationship that’s unique on the world stage. I’m really looking forward to working together and building on that with you both.”
Biden’s projected victory sparked an outburst of jubilation in several major U.S. cities, including the banging of pots and pans and the sound of fireworks.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-08--Iran Is Laughing at Trump and Placing Hope in Biden

Iran Is Laughing at Trump and Placing Hope in Biden This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As U.S. President Donald Trump urged his followers to disrupt the counting of ballots , he provoked laughter from the leaders of countries to which the United States had long preached democracy .
Iran ’ s supreme leader , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One says this is the most fraudulent election in US history .
Who says that ?
The president who is currently in office .
His rival says Trump intends to rig the election !
This is how # USElections & US democracy are.
” Trump walked out of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and reimposed debilitating sanctions on the country .
This “ maximum pressure ” policy punished the Iranian regime , but , as is often the case , it mostly hurt the Iranian people .
The resulting absence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vociferously exploded with mockery at Trump ’ s post-election press conferences disputing the results ; one Iranian said their own regime could never match the U.S. president ’ s success at undermining democracy on live television .
Iranians were also quick to rejoice when Joe Biden was declared president-elect , expressing hope that he would restore normal economic relations .
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani indicated his government was ready for talks , although in a well-calculated manner that guarded Iranian pride .
He said he hoped that the last three years of pressuring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States a lesson that will make “ the next U.S. administration follow the law and return to all its commitments ” under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , signed when Biden was vice president .
Seyed Mohammad Marandi , an Iranian American academic and political analyst , said in an interview that Iran expects the United States to fully comply with its obligations under the deal and “ compensate for damages done due to U.S. violations of the deal.
” Only then would Iran return to the table , Marandi added .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations , said that while Biden has made it clear he wants to rejoin the agreement , the U.S. Senate might make it harder if it goes to the Republicans .
“ Nonetheless , there would be a very obvious opening between Tehran and Washington on the nuclear deal , ” Geranmayeh said .
“ From the U.S. perspective , and frankly from Europe ’ s perspective too , Iran ’ s expanding nuclear program is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they need to deal with.
” She added that Biden intends on ending conflicts where Iran exerts influence over local actors , including in Yemen and Iraq , which would imply some further cooperation between Washington and Tehran .
“ Biden would look to stabilize the region , which would mean reaching some sort of direct or indirect settlement with Iran.
” But in an article in Foreign Affairs published in the spring , Biden added a caveat .
He would renew commitment to diplomacy to strengthen the existing nuclear agreement “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s other destabilizing activities , ” implying curtailment of Iran ’ s funding of Shiite militias in the region , including Lebanon ’ s Hezbollah .
( Lebanese President Michel Aoun , for his part , expressed hopes that Biden would “ restore balance ” to Lebanese-U.S. ties after the Trump administration newly imposed Hezbollah-related sanctions on his son-in-law Gebran Bassil , the head of the Free Patriotic Movement . )
Iranians are cautiously anxious about Biden ’ s plans for the region .
But they may have to be patient .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ priorities , the coronavirus pandemic and China ’ s rise , have little to do with the Middle East .

As U.S. President Donald Trump urged his followers to disrupt the counting of ballots, he provoked laughter from the leaders of countries to which the United States had long preached democracy. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tweeted , “What a spectacle! One says this is the most fraudulent election in US history. Who says that? The president who is currently in office. His rival says Trump intends to rig the election! This is how #USElections & US democracy are.”
As U.S. President Donald Trump urged his followers to disrupt the counting of ballots, he provoked laughter from the leaders of countries to which the United States had long preached democracy. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tweeted, “What a spectacle! One says this is the most fraudulent election in US history. Who says that? The president who is currently in office. His rival says Trump intends to rig the election! This is how #USElections & US democracy are.”
Trump walked out of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and reimposed debilitating sanctions on the country. This “maximum pressure” policy punished the Iranian regime, but, as is often the case, it mostly hurt the Iranian people. The resulting absence of popular goodwill explains why Iranian Twitter so vociferously exploded with mockery at Trump’s post-election press conferences disputing the results; one Iranian said their own regime could never match the U.S. president’s success at undermining democracy on live television. Iranians were also quick to rejoice when Joe Biden was declared president-elect, expressing hope that he would restore normal economic relations.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani indicated his government was ready for talks, although in a well-calculated manner that guarded Iranian pride. He said he hoped that the last three years of pressuring Iran without much avail taught the United States a lesson that will make “the next U.S. administration follow the law and return to all its commitments” under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed when Biden was vice president. Seyed Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian American academic and political analyst, said in an interview that Iran expects the United States to fully comply with its obligations under the deal and “compensate for damages done due to U.S. violations of the deal.” Only then would Iran return to the table, Marandi added.
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that while Biden has made it clear he wants to rejoin the agreement, the U.S. Senate might make it harder if it goes to the Republicans. “Nonetheless, there would be a very obvious opening between Tehran and Washington on the nuclear deal,” Geranmayeh said. “From the U.S. perspective, and frankly from Europe’s perspective too, Iran’s expanding nuclear program is the No. 1 threat to security that they need to deal with.”
She added that Biden intends on ending conflicts where Iran exerts influence over local actors, including in Yemen and Iraq, which would imply some further cooperation between Washington and Tehran. “Biden would look to stabilize the region, which would mean reaching some sort of direct or indirect settlement with Iran.”
But in an article in Foreign Affairs published in the spring, Biden added a caveat. He would renew commitment to diplomacy to strengthen the existing nuclear agreement “while more effectively pushing back against Iran’s other destabilizing activities,” implying curtailment of Iran’s funding of Shiite militias in the region, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah. (Lebanese President Michel Aoun, for his part, expressed hopes that Biden would “restore balance” to Lebanese-U.S. ties after the Trump administration newly imposed Hezbollah-related sanctions on his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement.)
Iranians are cautiously anxious about Biden’s plans for the region. But they may have to be patient. The president-elect’s most clearly stated priorities, the coronavirus pandemic and China’s rise, have little to do with the Middle East.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-08--UAE, Bahrain Brace for a Chillier Biden Approach

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will inherit his predecessor ’ s signature foreign-policy achievement : the historic Abraham Accords that normalized Israel ’ s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain .
Quietly supported by Saudi Arabia , the pact represents a giant stride toward peace and stability in the Middle East .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Persian Gulf countries when they find a chillier reception from the Biden administration next year .
Rather than the seductive tune of F-35 stealth fighter sales to the Emiratis that smoothed the road toward UAE-Israel rapprochement under outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump , the Biden administration will be talking about uncomfortable subjects like rejoining the Iran nuclear treaty , the region ’ s record on human rights , and Saudi Arabia ’ s role in the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi .
As a candidate in August , Biden praised the Abraham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bridge the deep divides of the Middle East.
” Later , though , he said U.S.-Saudi ties require a reassessment , a step that could deter the biggest and wealthiest of the Gulf countries from joining the new diplomatic alignment with Israel .
This would be no surprise for Abu Dhabi ’ s crown prince , Mohammed bin Zayed , the UAE ’ s famously pragmatic ruler who was quick to congratulate Biden on his victory on Saturday .
Mohammed bin Zayed hedged his bets from the start , recognizing that Trump could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden from the time the president-elect served in the Obama administration .
The savvy crown prince stayed away from the White House signing ceremony in September , sending his foreign minister to shake hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the peace agreement predictably ignited condemnation from Palestinians .
The UAE and Bahrain , which hosts the U.S. Navy ’ s 5th Fleet , have a strong footing in Washington and have for decades nimbly managed productive relationships with both Republicans and Democrats in the Oval Office .
While ties with Israel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greased with F-35 sales , the Gulf states have broad agendas beyond fighter jets—and will find ample opportunity for warmer ties with the Biden administration after what is likely to be a transition period .
In the meantime , the process of normalization in trade , investment , travel , and tourism will continue .
With the once boycotted Israelis now welcomed in the Gulf , lift lines at Dubai ’ s indoor ski slope should be thick with Israeli tourists at Passover next year no matter what decisions the Biden administration takes @

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will inherit his predecessor’s signature foreign-policy achievement: the historic Abraham Accords that normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Quietly supported by Saudi Arabia, the pact represents a giant stride toward peace and stability in the Middle East. But it contains some built-in limits for Persian Gulf countries, which may find a chillier reception from the Biden administration next year.
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will inherit his predecessor’s signature foreign-policy achievement: the historic Abraham Accords that normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Quietly supported by Saudi Arabia, the pact represents a giant stride toward peace and stability in the Middle East. But it contains some built-in limits for Persian Gulf countries, which may find a chillier reception from the Biden administration next year.
Rather than the seductive tune of F-35 stealth fighter sales to the Emiratis that smoothed the road toward UAE-Israel rapprochement under outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump, the Biden administration will be talking about uncomfortable subjects like rejoining the Iran nuclear treaty, the region’s record on human rights, and the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents. As a candidate in August, Biden praised the Abraham Accords as a “historic step to bridge the deep divides of the Middle East.” Later, though, he said U.S.-Saudi ties require a reassessment, a step that could deter the biggest and wealthiest of the Gulf countries from joining the new diplomatic alignment with Israel.
This would be no surprise for Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed, the UAE’s famously pragmatic ruler who was quick to congratulate Biden on his victory on Saturday. Mohammed bin Zayed hedged his bets from the start, recognizing that Trump could be a one-term president, and knows Biden from the time the president-elect served in the Obama administration. The savvy crown prince stayed away from the White House signing ceremony in September, sending his foreign minister to shake hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the peace agreement predictably ignited condemnation from Palestinians. The UAE and Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, have a strong footing in Washington and have for decades nimbly managed productive relationships with both Republicans and Democrats in the Oval Office. While ties with Israel may not advance along the trajectory Trump greased with F-35 sales, the Gulf states have broad agendas beyond fighter jets—and will find ample opportunity for warmer ties with the Biden administration after what is likely to be a transition period.
In the meantime, the process of normalization in trade, investment, travel, and tourism will continue. With the once boycotted Israelis now welcomed in the Gulf, lift lines at Dubai’s indoor ski slope should be thick with Israeli tourists at Passover next year no matter what decisions the Biden administration takes.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-08--Canadians, Whether Left or Right, Are Glad to See Trump Go

Canadians , Whether Left or Right , Are Glad to See Trump Go This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
TORONTO—I am guessing that few readers of Foreign Policy need me to tell them that Canadians reacted positively to the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States .
Those who quickly congratulated Biden include not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leader Justin Trudeau but also conservative politicians such as Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and national opposition leader Erin O ’ Toole .
Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s brand of populist conservatism has had little resonance in Canada and produced few cross-border coattail benefits for right-of-center Canadian politicians .
Just the opposite , in fact : During both Ontario ’ s 2018 provincial election and the national 2019 vote , Conservative Party politicians ( including current Ontario Premier Doug Ford and former national Tory leader Andrew Scheer ) had to fend off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ northern imitators .
Left-of-center Canadian politicians such as Trudeau , meanwhile , eagerly presented themselves as guardians of tolerant Canadian values , which many progressives here believe to be under siege from Trump-inspired xenophobia , racism , or even white supremacism .
In fact , one of the main effects of the Trump presidency here in Canada has been an increased fixation on race in all aspects of politics and policymaking—especially in regard to Black Canadians , despite the fact that only about 4 percent of Canadians are Black and that most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not descendants of enslaved or otherwise mistreated Canadian forebears .
And following the election , it ’ s notable that many Canadian journalists and politicians seem more interested in the ascendancy of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris than Biden .
These have been politically unusual times in Canada , a country whose political tribes have traditionally been defined by region , not skin color .
And it will be interesting to see whether Canada reverts to that historical dynamic now that Trump is on his way out of office—or whether this new kind of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and will continue to overshadow Canada ’ s traditional domestic debates over the economic underdevelopment of Canada ’ s Atlantic provinces , Quebec separatism , and the Western provinces ’ alienation from the rest of the country .

TORONTO—I am guessing that few readers of Foreign Policy need me to tell them that Canadians reacted positively to the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States. Those who quickly congratulated Biden include not only Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau but also conservative politicians such as Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and national opposition leader Erin O’Toole . Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s brand of populist conservatism has had little resonance in Canada and produced few cross-border coattail benefits for right-of-center Canadian politicians.
TORONTO—I am guessing that few readers of Foreign Policy need me to tell them that Canadians reacted positively to the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States. Those who quickly congratulated Biden include not only Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau but also conservative politicians such as Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and national opposition leader Erin O’Toole. Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s brand of populist conservatism has had little resonance in Canada and produced few cross-border coattail benefits for right-of-center Canadian politicians.
Just the opposite, in fact: During both Ontario’s 2018 provincial election and the national 2019 vote, Conservative Party politicians (including current Ontario Premier Doug Ford and former national Tory leader Andrew Scheer) had to fend off accusations that they were Trump’s northern imitators. Left-of-center Canadian politicians such as Trudeau, meanwhile, eagerly presented themselves as guardians of tolerant Canadian values, which many progressives here believe to be under siege from Trump-inspired xenophobia, racism, or even white supremacism.
In fact, one of the main effects of the Trump presidency here in Canada has been an increased fixation on race in all aspects of politics and policymaking—especially in regard to Black Canadians, despite the fact that only about 4 percent of Canadians are Black and that most of those Black Canadians are first-generation immigrants, not descendants of enslaved or otherwise mistreated Canadian forebears. And following the election, it’s notable that many Canadian journalists and politicians seem more interested in the ascendancy of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris than Biden.
These have been politically unusual times in Canada, a country whose political tribes have traditionally been defined by region, not skin color. And it will be interesting to see whether Canada reverts to that historical dynamic now that Trump is on his way out of office—or whether this new kind of U.S.-style race politics is here to stay and will continue to overshadow Canada’s traditional domestic debates over the economic underdevelopment of Canada’s Atlantic provinces, Quebec separatism, and the Western provinces’ alienation from the rest of the country.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-08--Biden and Harris’s Reset for Africa

Biden and Harris’s Reset for Africa

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
The United States is at its best when it serves as a symbol of democracy for the rest of the world .
That symbolism isn ’ t always earned , and in fact at several points in U.S. history , it has appeared hypocritical .
For the last four years , under Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of hypocrisy bordered on farcical .
The United States seemed to jettison many of the values it most wanted to promote overseas—rule of law , democratic norms , and respect for citizens ’ voices .
As the Center for Strategic and International Studies ’ Africa Reacts series captured , the decline of democratic norms in the United States was palpable , and it gave cover to leaders who willfully harmed their citizens .
Now , with Joe Biden as president-elect and Kamala Harris as vice president-elect , this moment could mark a reset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calling the race for Biden and Harris , the world began celebrating .
In Tanzania , Zitto Kabwe , a leading opposition figure who lost a parliamentary seat in the country ’ s recent flawed election , tweeted that the Biden-Harris victory represented hope for democracy at a time when its values are under siege .
Many citizens across the African continent echoed Kabwe ’ s sentiment .
For the moment , it seems , America , the symbol , might reemerge .
However , for the symbol to truly regain power and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to regain credibility in sub-Saharan Africa , it must first deliver at home .
Implementing expansive police reform and an agenda to improve the lives of Black Americans will be essential .
The new administration will have its work cut out domestically and globally .
Nonetheless , democrats on the African continent are eager to have an ally again .
In Biden and Harris , they hope to have an administration that will amplify the voices of civic leaders who are championing human rights and advocating for much needed reforms .
They also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how ( and to whom ) the U.S. government provides security sector assistance , reprioritizes international accords , speaks with moral clarity , and no longer gives cover to authoritarian wannabes .
It ’ s unlikely that the new administration will meet all of these hopes and aspirations ; however , if Biden ’ s statements and posture during the campaign are any indication , democrats on the African continent will get some much needed victories .

The United States is at its best when it serves as a symbol of democracy for the rest of the world. That symbolism isn’t always earned, and in fact at several points in U.S. history, it has appeared hypocritical. For the last four years, under Donald Trump’s presidency, that sense of hypocrisy bordered on farcical. The United States seemed to jettison many of the values it most wanted to promote overseas—rule of law, democratic norms, and respect for citizens’ voices. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Reacts series captured, the decline of democratic norms in the United States was palpable, and it gave cover to leaders who willfully harmed their citizens .
The United States is at its best when it serves as a symbol of democracy for the rest of the world. That symbolism isn’t always earned, and in fact at several points in U.S. history, it has appeared hypocritical. For the last four years, under Donald Trump’s presidency, that sense of hypocrisy bordered on farcical. The United States seemed to jettison many of the values it most wanted to promote overseas—rule of law, democratic norms, and respect for citizens’ voices. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Reacts series captured, the decline of democratic norms in the United States was palpable, and it gave cover to leaders who willfully harmed their citizens.
Now, with Joe Biden as president-elect and Kamala Harris as vice president-elect, this moment could mark a reset. Within minutes of major U.S. networks calling the race for Biden and Harris, the world began celebrating. In Tanzania, Zitto Kabwe, a leading opposition figure who lost a parliamentary seat in the country’s recent flawed election, tweeted that the Biden-Harris victory represented hope for democracy at a time when its values are under siege. Many citizens across the African continent echoed Kabwe’s sentiment. For the moment, it seems, America, the symbol, might reemerge.
However, for the symbol to truly regain power and legitimacy, and for the Biden-Harris administration to regain credibility in sub-Saharan Africa, it must first deliver at home. Implementing expansive police reform and an agenda to improve the lives of Black Americans will be essential.
The new administration will have its work cut out domestically and globally. Nonetheless, democrats on the African continent are eager to have an ally again. In Biden and Harris, they hope to have an administration that will amplify the voices of civic leaders who are championing human rights and advocating for much needed reforms. They also hope to have an administration that reevaluates how (and to whom) the U.S. government provides security sector assistance, reprioritizes international accords, speaks with moral clarity, and no longer gives cover to authoritarian wannabes.
It’s unlikely that the new administration will meet all of these hopes and aspirations; however, if Biden’s statements and posture during the campaign are any indication, democrats on the African continent will get some much needed victories.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-07--How President-Elect Biden Could—Believe It or Not—Help Heal America

How President-Elect Biden Could—Believe It or Not—Help Heal America The surprisingly close election between Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump has only deepened pessimism that America is a hopelessly divided nation .
And even as he ’ s been officially declared president-elect , Biden has seen his acumen for the top job called into question for his entire career—never more than by Trump , who lambasted him for his 47 years in Washington , calling him “ Sleepy Joe.
” But now is a moment when the old way of doing politics—Biden ’ s way—is about to confront @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when it seems Republicans and Democrats can no longer communicate at all , it ’ s worth noting that in the past five decades no politician has been more effective than Biden at making deals across the aisle .
Unlike his former boss President Barack Obama , who remained somewhat aloof from Congress and was criticized on that score even by some in his own party , Biden was always the go-to guy in his time as a senator and vice president , relentlessly stalking and schmoozing and looking to make deal after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ As to Biden ’ s ‘ methodology , ’ it ranged from repeatedly buttonholing Members on the Senate floor ( or in the Democratic cloakroom ) to going down to the Senate gym when he heard that an undecided member was working out there , ” said his former Senate aide Michael Haltzel by email .
These are different times , of course .
Trump apparently still refuses to concede the election , and a substantial number of Americans—nearly half of voters—may have trouble even accepting Biden as legitimate .
“ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
” the president tweeted from his motorcade on his way to the golf course on Saturday morning .
Sen. Mitch McConnell , the most powerful Republican in Washington after Trump , notably refrained from congratulating Biden after news networks called the election for the Democratic candidate late Saturday morning .
And he has reportedly already pressed Biden to bypass progressives such as Sens .
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders for key cabinet posts and instead pick centrists like Lael Brainard for Treasury and Tony Blinken or Sen. Chris Coons for State if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate .
McConnell will also fight fiercely against Biden ’ s plans to rejoin the Paris climate pact and the Iran nuclear deal .
According to the Washington Post , upon his inauguration day 74 days from now , Biden plans to swiftly issue executive orders reversing Trump ’ s withdrawal from the World Health Organization , repealing the ban on immigration from some Muslim-majority countries , and reinstating the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals ( DACA ) program that allows immigrants called “ Dreamers ” to remain in the country .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains unclear .
Biden ’ s presidency will be , in fact , a test case of whether politics can still exist as it once did in the past or whether the polarization is too great to overcome .
Yet there is also a sense that many in the nation are tired of the anger , the divisiveness , and Trump ’ s tweet-a-minute presidency .
They want action , they want calm , and , above all , they want an effective COVID-19 relief package .
And if any degree of comity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be Biden who can do it—as even some of his former Republican Senate colleagues have said .
In an appearance in Wilmington , Delaware , Saturday evening after he was declared president-elect , Biden made an impassioned speech invoking the Bible and calling for a national healing , saying this was an “ inflection point ” for reclaiming “ the soul of America.
” “ I ’ ll call on Congress , Republicans and Democrats , to make those choices with me , ” said the president-elect , who will be , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inaugurated .
Coming together will be no easy task , especially if McConnell—who once famously said his only task was to obstruct Obama and prevent him from getting a second term—becomes majority leader of the Senate again .
As Obama ’ s vice president , Biden was often the one who was called on to reach out to Republicans—for example , obtaining the three votes needed to put Obama ’ s Recovery Act over the top .
Obama was a president who “ didn ’ t have the schmooze gene , ” Jonathan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of his accounts of the Obama presidency .
Biden , by contrast , has for decades been one of the biggest glad-handers on Capitol Hill , and he and McConnell have spent hours negotiating budget , deficit , and other bills .
As Politico noted , McConnell was the only Senate Republican to attend Biden ’ s son Beau ’ s funeral .
Before he retired from the Senate in 2011 , Sen. Judd Gregg , a New Hampshire Republican , even urged the Obama White House to bring Biden more into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very smart to bring him more into a role of managing and dealing with Congress , ” Gregg told me .
“ They ’ ve not done a great job of dealing with Republican members , especially the leadership , Mitch McConnell , Jon Kyl , and Lamar Alexander .
Clearly all three have a great personal relationship with Biden.
” These relationships go back many decades , Biden advocates say , especially when it came to forging a common front on foreign policy .
“ In the Balkan crises—Bosnia and Croatia in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GOP counterparts in leading the push for U.S. military involvement were Bob Dole and John McCain , ” said his former Senate aide Haltzel .
“ Biden traveled to Bosnia with Dole and in subsequent years talked with him several times a week about the Balkan situation.
” Haltzel also noted that when it came to NATO enlargement “ nothing could be more of an indication of Biden ’ s bipartisan ability than the fact that the GOP asked him to be floor manager of the bill ( March/April 1998 ) accepting Poland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into NATO .
That was simply unprecedented .
It recognized , first of all , Biden ’ s unequaled expertise on the subject and , second , the trust they had in him.
” “ He understands governance better than anyone else , ” former Republican Sen. and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told me in an interview in 2010 , saying it was he who advised Barack Obama to pick Biden as his running mate in 2008 .
“ In particular , he understands Congress.
” In any case , for Joseph Robinette @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has spent most of his political career trying rather desperately to be taken seriously by his peers and the public , this is a golden and crowning moment .
He has become only the sixth vice president in U.S. history to be elected outright ( rather than succeed a deceased president ) , following John Adams , Thomas Jefferson , Martin Van Buren , Richard Nixon , and George H.W .
Bush .
And his victory is a remarkable capstone to an improbable career in which his several bids to become president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago when Hillary Clinton edged him aside—and ultimately lost to Trump .
Now he needs to do what he has said he will do : heal a badly broken country .
Update , Nov. 7 , 2020 : This story has been updated with Biden ’ s remarks as president-elect .

The surprisingly close election between Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump has only deepened pessimism that America is a hopelessly divided nation. And even as he’s been officially declared president-elect, Biden has seen his acumen for the top job called into question for his entire career—never more than by Trump, who lambasted him for his 47 years in Washington, calling him “Sleepy Joe.”
The surprisingly close election between Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump has only deepened pessimism that America is a hopelessly divided nation. And even as he’s been officially declared president-elect, Biden has seen his acumen for the top job called into question for his entire career—never more than by Trump, who lambasted him for his 47 years in Washington, calling him “Sleepy Joe.”
But now is a moment when the old way of doing politics—Biden’s way—is about to confront the new. And at a time when it seems Republicans and Democrats can no longer communicate at all, it’s worth noting that in the past five decades no politician has been more effective than Biden at making deals across the aisle.
Unlike his former boss President Barack Obama, who remained somewhat aloof from Congress and was criticized on that score even by some in his own party, Biden was always the go-to guy in his time as a senator and vice president, relentlessly stalking and schmoozing and looking to make deal after deal, his former colleagues say. “As to Biden’s ‘methodology,’ it ranged from repeatedly buttonholing Members on the Senate floor (or in the Democratic cloakroom) to going down to the Senate gym when he heard that an undecided member was working out there,” said his former Senate aide Michael Haltzel by email.
These are different times, of course. Trump apparently still refuses to concede the election, and a substantial number of Americans—nearly half of voters—may have trouble even accepting Biden as legitimate. “I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” the president tweeted from his motorcade on his way to the golf course on Saturday morning.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, the most powerful Republican in Washington after Trump, notably refrained from congratulating Biden after news networks called the election for the Democratic candidate late Saturday morning. And he has reportedly already pressed Biden to bypass progressives such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders for key cabinet posts and instead pick centrists like Lael Brainard for Treasury and Tony Blinken or Sen. Chris Coons for State if he hopes to work with a Republican Senate. McConnell will also fight fiercely against Biden’s plans to rejoin the Paris climate pact and the Iran nuclear deal. According to the Washington Post, upon his inauguration day 74 days from now, Biden plans to swiftly issue executive orders reversing Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, repealing the ban on immigration from some Muslim-majority countries, and reinstating the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program that allows immigrants called “Dreamers” to remain in the country.
But McConnell’s dominance of the Senate remains unclear. Biden’s presidency will be, in fact, a test case of whether politics can still exist as it once did in the past or whether the polarization is too great to overcome.
Yet there is also a sense that many in the nation are tired of the anger, the divisiveness, and Trump’s tweet-a-minute presidency. They want action, they want calm, and, above all, they want an effective COVID-19 relief package. And if any degree of comity can be restored to Washington, it may be Biden who can do it—as even some of his former Republican Senate colleagues have said.
In an appearance in Wilmington, Delaware, Saturday evening after he was declared president-elect, Biden made an impassioned speech invoking the Bible and calling for a national healing, saying this was an “inflection point” for reclaiming “the soul of America.”
“I’ll call on Congress, Republicans and Democrats, to make those choices with me,” said the president-elect, who will be, at 78, the oldest president ever inaugurated.
Coming together will be no easy task, especially if McConnell—who once famously said his only task was to obstruct Obama and prevent him from getting a second term—becomes majority leader of the Senate again. As Obama’s vice president, Biden was often the one who was called on to reach out to Republicans—for example, obtaining the three votes needed to put Obama’s Recovery Act over the top. Obama was a president who “didn’t have the schmooze gene,” Jonathan Alter wrote in The Center Holds, one of his accounts of the Obama presidency.
Biden, by contrast, has for decades been one of the biggest glad-handers on Capitol Hill, and he and McConnell have spent hours negotiating budget, deficit, and other bills. As Politico noted, McConnell was the only Senate Republican to attend Biden’s son Beau’s funeral. Before he retired from the Senate in 2011, Sen. Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, even urged the Obama White House to bring Biden more into play. “They’d be very smart to bring him more into a role of managing and dealing with Congress,” Gregg told me. “They’ve not done a great job of dealing with Republican members, especially the leadership, Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, and Lamar Alexander. Clearly all three have a great personal relationship with Biden.”
These relationships go back many decades, Biden advocates say, especially when it came to forging a common front on foreign policy. “In the Balkan crises—Bosnia and Croatia in 1992-95; Kosovo in 1997-99—Biden’s GOP counterparts in leading the push for U.S. military involvement were Bob Dole and John McCain,” said his former Senate aide Haltzel. “Biden traveled to Bosnia with Dole and in subsequent years talked with him several times a week about the Balkan situation.” Haltzel also noted that when it came to NATO enlargement “nothing could be more of an indication of Biden’s bipartisan ability than the fact that the GOP asked him to be floor manager of the bill (March/April 1998) accepting Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary into NATO. That was simply unprecedented. It recognized, first of all, Biden’s unequaled expertise on the subject and, second, the trust they had in him.”
“He understands governance better than anyone else,” former Republican Sen. and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told me in an interview in 2010, saying it was he who advised Barack Obama to pick Biden as his running mate in 2008. “In particular, he understands Congress.”
In any case, for Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., a self-described regular guy who has spent most of his political career trying rather desperately to be taken seriously by his peers and the public, this is a golden and crowning moment. He has become only the sixth vice president in U.S. history to be elected outright (rather than succeed a deceased president), following John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon, and George H.W. Bush. And his victory is a remarkable capstone to an improbable career in which his several bids to become president appeared to be done with four years ago when Hillary Clinton edged him aside—and ultimately lost to Trump.
Now he needs to do what he has said he will do: heal a badly broken country.
Update, Nov. 7, 2020: This story has been updated with Biden’s remarks as president-elect.