foreignpolicy--2020-01-12--Is the World Getting Safer?

Is the World Getting Safer?

Is the World Getting Safer ?
In 2011 , the psychologist Steven Pinker published The Better Angels of Our Nature , a bestseller with a bold thesis : Almost every form of violence , including war , was on the decline .
Thanks to the spread of Enlightenment values , Pinker argued , humans had become more peaceful and less bloodthirsty .
Asked in a 2014 interview whether humans would ever return to their violent past , Pinker replied , “ Well , how likely is it that we ’ re going to start throwing virgins into volcanoes to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to have a return of slave markets to New Orleans ?
I think pretty unlikely.
” Pinker was not the first to forecast the end of war .
The political scientist John Mueller made a similar argument in the late 1980s , maintaining that great-power war , like slavery , had gone out of style .
As early as the first decade of the 20th century , no fewer than three books were published heralding the decline of war .
The most famous of them , The Great Illusion , by Norman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the start of World War I .
( “ How can we possibly expect to keep alive warlike qualities , ” he wrote , “ when all our interests and activities … are peace-like ?
” ) Into this debate steps Bear F. Braumoeller , a political scientist and statistician at Ohio State University , whose newest book , Only the Dead , undermines the decline-of-war thesis .
Amid pages of data and statistical analysis , Braumoeller writes in prose lucid enough to be accessible to a lay audience .
“ For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he writes , “ I can find no general downward trend in the incidence or deadliness of warfare .
If anything , the opposite is true.
” He warns , “ It ’ s not at all unlikely that another war that would surpass the two World Wars in lethality will happen in your lifetime.
” The disagreement between Braumoeller and Pinker stems primarily from a difference in how they understand the data .
From World War II to the present day , international conflict does indeed appear to be on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the story looks less uplifting : Over the past two centuries , the rate of conflict initiation between countries has actually increased ( Pinker ’ s graphs don ’ t show this , Braumoeller argues , in part because they include data only from Europe ) .
Apart from the two world wars , the Cold War was the most conflict-ridden period since the Napoleonic Wars ; the end of the Cold War was the first time the rate of conflict initiation fell in nearly 200 years .
The rate of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often states resort to force scaled by the number of opportunities for violence to occur .
But Braumoeller argues that his findings hold pretty much no matter how war is measured ; even when one evaluates the propensity of states to wage all-out wars , the Cold War was one of the most warlike periods of the past 200 years outside of the two world wars .
Optimists about the decline of war tend to dismiss one or both of the world wars as anomalies , focusing instead on the 70-year period known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ followed them .
But without more rigorous statistics , it ’ s impossible to tell whether the seven-decade Long Peace since World War II demonstrates conclusively that the world has become more peaceful ; it could just as easily have happened by chance .
In an attempt to figure out which is more likely , Braumoeller uses formal statistical methods to separate the underlying rate of conflict initiation and war lethality from the noise of random variation .
He finds that the deadliness of war hasn ’ t declined in the last 200 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or relative to the combatants ’ populations ; that there has been no systematic downward trend in the potency of the causes of war ; and that although the rate of international conflict initiation did fall at the end of the Cold War , it had actually been steadily rising until the 1990s .
From World War II to the present day , international conflict does indeed appear to be on the decline .
Zoom out , however , and the story looks less uplifting .
Braumoeller ’ s analysis of the data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most troubling findings concern the potential for war to escalate .
War , like earthquakes and terrorist attacks , follows an unusual probability distribution known as a power law : the overwhelming majority of the observations are relatively small in magnitude , but a few are extraordinarily large .
Indeed , one of the great strengths of Braumoeller ’ s book is his attention to lesser-known but remarkably violent conflicts .
For example , when you measure battle deaths as a proportion of the combatants ’ populations , the two world wars are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wars of all time—they are surpassed by the Paraguayan War in the 1860s , the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s , and the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s .
“ Wars escalate more quickly , and reach more astounding sizes , than just about anything else found in nature , ” he writes .
And once begun , as Braumoeller shows from his analysis of wars since 1945 , wars retain the same devastating escalatory potential today that they displayed in 1913 or 1938 .
Today , Braumoeller calculates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will escalate to be roughly as deadly as World War I stands at about 1 percent .
The chance that a new war will produce almost twice as many battle deaths as World War II , in which around 65 million people died , is one in 200 .
That may sound low , but as Braumoeller points out , “ If we keep fighting wars that pass the thousand-battle-death threshold at a rate of roughly one every other year , the probability of seeing such a war in the next century jumps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because great-power clashes have not spiraled into all-out war since World War II , “ the escalatory dynamics that produced mindboggling carnage in the Paraguayan War , the Chaco War , the Iran-Iraq War , and the two World Wars are every bit as operational today as they were then.
” In addition to claiming to have data on their side , the proponents of the decline-of-war thesis also argue that a fundamental change in the conduct of international politics has occurred : War , they maintain , has become unthinkable .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a change in attitude in developed countries ; others point to the rise of peacekeepers and international organizations , or the deterrent effects of nuclear weapons .
Pinker , for his part , traces the decline of violence to several overlapping factors , including what he calls a “ civilizing process , ” through which the consolidation of state power helped reduce violence within states , and a “ humanitarian revolution , ” an expansion of empathy that helped extend rights to people of all races and to women , led to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ norms against warfare throughout the international system .
Braumoeller does not dispute that the emergence of modern states has suppressed violence within them .
But he argues that violent competition between states is a different matter .
The complexity of the international system makes it difficult to assume that the fact that people are becoming more peaceful—if true—will translate neatly into a fall in interstate violence .
In an anarchic international system , where states must act strategically to maintain their advantage , there is little guarantee that a more pacifistic public will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a more peaceful world .
Germany ’ s decision to support Austria on the eve of World War I , for example , was based in part on a belief that other powers had embraced pacifism .
One German diplomat argued that “ England is absolutely pacific and France as well as Russia likewise do not feel inclined towards war.
” As for nuclear weapons , there is a long history of claims that past military technologies have rendered war unthinkable , and while nuclear weapons may deter great-power conflicts from escalating , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which states could stumble into war , such as through the accidental launch of one of the hundreds of missiles the United States and Russia keep on “ launch on warning ” status .
One of the richest sections of the book is Braumoeller ’ s discussion of international order .
While he finds no evidence of a general linear trend toward a less warlike world , Braumoeller does find what he calls “ islands of peace ” throughout history , periods in which international conflict is much less likely than it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the emergence of international orders .
The postwar Western order is one such example , but international orders do not always have to be liberal .
The Concert of Europe , for example , founded at the Congress of Vienna in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars , was profoundly undemocratic , an attempt to make the world safe for reactionary imperialism and roll back constitutional reform across the continent ; it was widely despised , especially by British liberals such as Lord Byron , Richard Cobden , and Percy Bysshe Shelley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for almost four decades—the least warlike period on record in Braumoeller ’ s data .
International orders are a mixed blessing : While they tend to foster peace among their members , those members are prone to initiate war with third parties .
Indeed , Braumoeller argues that the coexistence of multiple orders , such as those that existed before World War II and during the Cold War , make the world a much more dangerous place—especially when they are based on conflicting principles of legitimacy .
If he is right , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the U.S.-led liberal international order would be a competition between it and a rival Chinese-led order characterized by authoritarianism , statist capitalism , and digital surveillance .
Today , with the conditions for a regional war in the Middle East riper than they have been for years , the liberal international order under strain , and the deterioration of U.S.-Chinese relations , Only the Dead makes for sobering reading .
Braumoeller ’ s is the most serious response to Pinker ’ s claims so far .
Pinker and the other optimists will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the debate will continue .
But getting the answer right matters .
Whether intentionally or not , Braumoeller argues , the decline-of-war theorists encourage a certain kind of complacency : States have historically worked hardest for international peace when the dangers of conflict have been most apparent .
In this , he echoes Henry Kissinger , who wrote in the 1950s of the passing of the Concert of Europe that the achievement of this era was “ not inconsiderable : a period of peace lasting almost a hundred years.
” Yet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stability so pervasive that it may have contributed to disaster .
For in the long interval of peace the sense of the tragic was lost ; it was forgotten that states could die , that upheavals could be irretrievable , that fear could become the means of social cohesion.
” World War I shattered the complacency of this era ; what will do the same for ours ?

In 2011, the psychologist Steven Pinker published The Better Angels of Our Nature, a bestseller with a bold thesis: Almost every form of violence, including war, was on the decline. Thanks to the spread of Enlightenment values, Pinker argued, humans had become more peaceful and less bloodthirsty. Asked in a 2014 interview whether humans would ever return to their violent past, Pinker replied, “Well, how likely is it that we’re going to start throwing virgins into volcanoes to get good weather or that you’re going to have a return of slave markets to New Orleans? I think pretty unlikely.”
In 2011, the psychologist Steven Pinker published The Better Angels of Our Nature, a bestseller with a bold thesis: Almost every form of violence, including war, was on the decline. Thanks to the spread of Enlightenment values, Pinker argued, humans had become more peaceful and less bloodthirsty. Asked in a 2014 interview whether humans would ever return to their violent past, Pinker replied, “Well, how likely is it that we’re going to start throwing virgins into volcanoes to get good weather or that you’re going to have a return of slave markets to New Orleans? I think pretty unlikely.”
Pinker was not the first to forecast the end of war. The political scientist John Mueller made a similar argument in the late 1980s, maintaining that great-power war, like slavery, had gone out of style. As early as the first decade of the 20th century, no fewer than three books were published heralding the decline of war. The most famous of them, The Great Illusion, by Norman Angell, was published just four years before the start of World War I. (“How can we possibly expect to keep alive warlike qualities,” he wrote, “when all our interests and activities … are peace-like?”)
Into this debate steps Bear F. Braumoeller, a political scientist and statistician at Ohio State University, whose newest book, Only the Dead, undermines the decline-of-war thesis. Amid pages of data and statistical analysis, Braumoeller writes in prose lucid enough to be accessible to a lay audience. “For the last two hundred years at least,” he writes, “I can find no general downward trend in the incidence or deadliness of warfare. If anything, the opposite is true.” He warns, “It’s not at all unlikely that another war that would surpass the two World Wars in lethality will happen in your lifetime.”
Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age, Bear F. Braumoeller, Oxford University Press, 344 pp., .95, Sept. 3, 2019
The disagreement between Braumoeller and Pinker stems primarily from a difference in how they understand the data. From World War II to the present day, international conflict does indeed appear to be on the decline. Zoom out, however, and the story looks less uplifting: Over the past two centuries, the rate of conflict initiation between countries has actually increased (Pinker’s graphs don’t show this, Braumoeller argues, in part because they include data only from Europe). Apart from the two world wars, the Cold War was the most conflict-ridden period since the Napoleonic Wars; the end of the Cold War was the first time the rate of conflict initiation fell in nearly 200 years. The rate of conflict initiation is a measure of how often states resort to force scaled by the number of opportunities for violence to occur. But Braumoeller argues that his findings hold pretty much no matter how war is measured; even when one evaluates the propensity of states to wage all-out wars, the Cold War was one of the most warlike periods of the past 200 years outside of the two world wars.
Optimists about the decline of war tend to dismiss one or both of the world wars as anomalies, focusing instead on the 70-year period known as the “Long Peace” that followed them. But without more rigorous statistics, it’s impossible to tell whether the seven-decade Long Peace since World War II demonstrates conclusively that the world has become more peaceful; it could just as easily have happened by chance. In an attempt to figure out which is more likely, Braumoeller uses formal statistical methods to separate the underlying rate of conflict initiation and war lethality from the noise of random variation. He finds that the deadliness of war hasn’t declined in the last 200 years, whether measured in absolute terms or relative to the combatants’ populations; that there has been no systematic downward trend in the potency of the causes of war; and that although the rate of international conflict initiation did fall at the end of the Cold War, it had actually been steadily rising until the 1990s.
From World War II to the present day, international conflict does indeed appear to be on the decline. Zoom out, however, and the story looks less uplifting.
Braumoeller’s analysis of the data is thoughtful and convincing. Perhaps his most troubling findings concern the potential for war to escalate. War, like earthquakes and terrorist attacks, follows an unusual probability distribution known as a power law: the overwhelming majority of the observations are relatively small in magnitude, but a few are extraordinarily large. Indeed, one of the great strengths of Braumoeller’s book is his attention to lesser-known but remarkably violent conflicts. For example, when you measure battle deaths as a proportion of the combatants’ populations, the two world wars are not even among the three most lethal wars of all time—they are surpassed by the Paraguayan War in the 1860s, the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930s, and the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. “Wars escalate more quickly, and reach more astounding sizes, than just about anything else found in nature,” he writes.
And once begun, as Braumoeller shows from his analysis of wars since 1945, wars retain the same devastating escalatory potential today that they displayed in 1913 or 1938. Today, Braumoeller calculates, the chance that a new war will escalate to be roughly as deadly as World War I stands at about 1 percent. The chance that a new war will produce almost twice as many battle deaths as World War II, in which around 65 million people died, is one in 200. That may sound low, but as Braumoeller points out, “If we keep fighting wars that pass the thousand-battle-death threshold at a rate of roughly one every other year, the probability of seeing such a war in the next century jumps to nearly 40%.” Just because great-power clashes have not spiraled into all-out war since World War II, “the escalatory dynamics that produced mindboggling carnage in the Paraguayan War, the Chaco War, the Iran-Iraq War, and the two World Wars are every bit as operational today as they were then.”
In addition to claiming to have data on their side, the proponents of the decline-of-war thesis also argue that a fundamental change in the conduct of international politics has occurred: War, they maintain, has become unthinkable. Some, like Mueller, attribute the shift to a change in attitude in developed countries; others point to the rise of peacekeepers and international organizations, or the deterrent effects of nuclear weapons. Pinker, for his part, traces the decline of violence to several overlapping factors, including what he calls a “civilizing process,” through which the consolidation of state power helped reduce violence within states, and a “humanitarian revolution,” an expansion of empathy that helped extend rights to people of all races and to women, led to the abolition of slavery, and fostered norms against warfare throughout the international system.
Braumoeller does not dispute that the emergence of modern states has suppressed violence within them. But he argues that violent competition between states is a different matter. The complexity of the international system makes it difficult to assume that the fact that people are becoming more peaceful—if true—will translate neatly into a fall in interstate violence. In an anarchic international system, where states must act strategically to maintain their advantage, there is little guarantee that a more pacifistic public will produce a less violent foreign policy or a more peaceful world. Germany’s decision to support Austria on the eve of World War I, for example, was based in part on a belief that other powers had embraced pacifism. One German diplomat argued that “England is absolutely pacific and France as well as Russia likewise do not feel inclined towards war.” As for nuclear weapons, there is a long history of claims that past military technologies have rendered war unthinkable, and while nuclear weapons may deter great-power conflicts from escalating, they have also created novel ways in which states could stumble into war, such as through the accidental launch of one of the hundreds of missiles the United States and Russia keep on “launch on warning” status.
One of the richest sections of the book is Braumoeller’s discussion of international order. While he finds no evidence of a general linear trend toward a less warlike world, Braumoeller does find what he calls “islands of peace” throughout history, periods in which international conflict is much less likely than it is in others. He attributes these islands to the emergence of international orders. The postwar Western order is one such example, but international orders do not always have to be liberal. The Concert of Europe, for example, founded at the Congress of Vienna in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, was profoundly undemocratic, an attempt to make the world safe for reactionary imperialism and roll back constitutional reform across the continent; it was widely despised, especially by British liberals such as Lord Byron, Richard Cobden, and Percy Bysshe Shelley. And yet it kept the peace for almost four decades—the least warlike period on record in Braumoeller’s data.
International orders are a mixed blessing: While they tend to foster peace among their members, those members are prone to initiate war with third parties. Indeed, Braumoeller argues that the coexistence of multiple orders, such as those that existed before World War II and during the Cold War, make the world a much more dangerous place—especially when they are based on conflicting principles of legitimacy. If he is right, the only thing more dangerous than the collapse of the U.S.-led liberal international order would be a competition between it and a rival Chinese-led order characterized by authoritarianism, statist capitalism, and digital surveillance.
Today, with the conditions for a regional war in the Middle East riper than they have been for years, the liberal international order under strain, and the deterioration of U.S.-Chinese relations, Only the Dead makes for sobering reading. Braumoeller’s is the most serious response to Pinker’s claims so far. Pinker and the other optimists will no doubt respond in due course, and the debate will continue.
But getting the answer right matters. Whether intentionally or not, Braumoeller argues, the decline-of-war theorists encourage a certain kind of complacency: States have historically worked hardest for international peace when the dangers of conflict have been most apparent. In this, he echoes Henry Kissinger, who wrote in the 1950s of the passing of the Concert of Europe that the achievement of this era was “not inconsiderable: a period of peace lasting almost a hundred years.” Yet, he continued, it was “a stability so pervasive that it may have contributed to disaster. For in the long interval of peace the sense of the tragic was lost; it was forgotten that states could die, that upheavals could be irretrievable, that fear could become the means of social cohesion.” World War I shattered the complacency of this era; what will do the same for ours?


foreignpolicy--2020-01-13--Protests Put Iran’s Leadership on the Defensive

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Protests in Iran are raising pressure on the government after a Ukrainian plane was shot down last week , France summons African leaders for a meeting over rising violence in the Sahel region , and what to watch in the world this week .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Thousands turned out for a second day of protests across Iran on Sunday , raising pressure on the government after it admitted the military accidentally shot down a Ukrainian commercial airliner last Wednesday while its air defenses were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launched at attack on U.S. military installations in Iraq hours earlier . )
The crash killed all 176 people on board and the admission came after days of denial , angering protesters .
In Tehran , demonstrators marched toward the capital ’ s Azadi Square despite a significant police presence .
The anti-government protests over the weekend contrasted sharply with the national mood after the U.S. assassination of military commander Qassem Suleimani , when millions joined regime-led funeral processions , FP reports .
The apparent disregard for government directives was also noteworthy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rise in fuel prices last fall , the latest wave of demonstrations includes many students and middle class Iranians .
Shifting blame .
Iranian authorities denied for days that the Iranian military was responsible for the air disaster , even as the United States and Canada said the evidence appeared to show that Iranian missiles had mistakenly downed the plane .
The protesters have directed their ire at authority figures , reportedly chanting , “ Suleimani is a murderer , the leader is a traitor , ” and “ Death to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ali Khamenei .
Trudeau vows action .
Fifty-seven Canadians , mostly of Iranian descent , died in the plane crash .
Thousands turned out for vigils across Canada on Sunday .
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to “ pursue justice and accountability ” for the disaster , speaking at a vigil in Edmonton , Alberta .
He has already demanded that Canada be involved in the investigation .
Iran has issued eight additional visas to Canadian officials , who were expected to arrive in Tehran today .
France convenes African leaders .
French @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidents—from Mali , Niger , Burkina Faso , Chad , and Mauritania—to a meeting in the south of France today .
There , he seeks to clarify their governments ’ stances on the presence of French troops in the Sahel .
Macron has threatened to withdraw 4,500 French troops from the region , where they are engaged in the fight against Islamist extremism .
France initially intervened in Mali in 2013 , and extremist violence is still on the rise—leading to some anti-French sentiment .
The United States is also considering withdrawing soldiers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump administration .
For over a week , U.S. President Donald Trump and officials have scrambled to explain the decision to assassinate the Iranian general , Qassem Suleimani , on Jan. 3 , escalating tensions with Iran to the brink of war .
Over the weekend , the administration contradicted itself : Trump claimed on Friday that Iran was planning to attack four U.S. embassies , while Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Sunday that he was not shown evidence of those plans .
The mixed messaging has added to the debate , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t provided enough evidence of an “ imminent ” attack .
Philippine volcano could erupt soon .
In the Philippines , thousands of people have been evacuated from a volcanic island near Manila .
The Taal volcano spewed large amounts of ash and steam on Sunday , disrupting flights and causing authorities to warn of a possible “ explosive eruption.
” Lava later began to flow from the volcano , forcing the closure of Manila ’ s airport 60 miles away .
Government offices and schools were also closed in the capital on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it is one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines , which sits on the “ Ring of Fire.
” It last erupted in 1977 .
Britain ’ s Queen Elizabeth has called a family meeting today at her Sandringham estate to address the options moving forward for Prince Harry and Meghan , Duchess of Sussex , who announced plans to step back from royal duties last week .
The talks are likely to focus on logistics , as Harry and Meghan plan to split their time between Canada and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debate before the Iowa caucus ( Feb. 3 ) will be held in Des Moines on Tuesday , with six candidates taking the stage—making it the smallest debate so far .
Sen. Bernie Sanders moved ahead of his rivals in a new poll from Iowa on Friday , followed closely by Sen. Elizabeth Warren , Mayor Pete Buttigieg , and former Vice President Joe Biden .
The U.S.-China “ phase one ” trade deal will be signed in Washington on Wednesday .
The deal includes commitments from China to buy more U.S. goods @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violations , though enforcing the agreement could be a challenge .
It ’ s also not the trade deal that Trump campaigned on , as FP ’ s Keith Johnson explains .
The Australian PM ’ s dwindling popularity .
After devastating bush fires , Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison ’ s approval rating has dropped by eight points to 37 percent—the lowest level since he took office in Aug. 2018 .
The fires have killed 28 people and destroyed more than 2,000 homes , with critics accusing Morrison ’ s government of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fire crisis and to global warming .
The case against Netanyahu .
A committee could convene today to discuss Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’ s request for immunity from three corruption cases .
Most lawmakers are expected to vote against granting immunity to Netanyahu , who was indicted last November .
Israel faces its third election in less than a year on March 2 .
Anti-government sentiment in Thailand .
At least 10,000 people registered for a “ Run Against Dictatorship ” in Bangkok on Sunday—one of the biggest shows of public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who took initially power in a 2014 coup and was elected as leader last year .
The run followed a large anti-government rally held last month .
The Canadian province of Ontario issued an apology on Sunday after a false alarm about an incident at a large nuclear power plant near Toronto , Canada ’ s most populous city .
The alert , part of a training exercise , was sent to cell phone users across the province—angering local mayors .
The power plant is scheduled to close down in 2024 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Protests in Iran are raising pressure on the government after a Ukrainian plane was shot down last week, France summons African leaders for a meeting over rising violence in the Sahel region, and what to watch in the world this week.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Protests in Iran are raising pressure on the government after a Ukrainian plane was shot down last week, France summons African leaders for a meeting over rising violence in the Sahel region, and what to watch in the world this week.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Iranian Protesters Challenge Regime
Thousands turned out for a second day of protests across Iran on Sunday, raising pressure on the government after it admitted the military accidentally shot down a Ukrainian commercial airliner last Wednesday while its air defenses were on high alert. (Iran had launched at attack on U.S. military installations in Iraq hours earlier.) The crash killed all 176 people on board and the admission came after days of denial, angering protesters. In Tehran, demonstrators marched toward the capital’s Azadi Square despite a significant police presence.
The anti-government protests over the weekend contrasted sharply with the national mood after the U.S. assassination of military commander Qassem Suleimani, when millions joined regime-led funeral processions, FP reports. The apparent disregard for government directives was also noteworthy. And unlike the protests that began over a rise in fuel prices last fall, the latest wave of demonstrations includes many students and middle class Iranians.
Shifting blame. Iranian authorities denied for days that the Iranian military was responsible for the air disaster, even as the United States and Canada said the evidence appeared to show that Iranian missiles had mistakenly downed the plane. The protesters have directed their ire at authority figures, reportedly chanting, “Suleimani is a murderer, the leader is a traitor,” and “Death to the dictator”—a reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Trudeau vows action. Fifty-seven Canadians, mostly of Iranian descent, died in the plane crash. Thousands turned out for vigils across Canada on Sunday. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to “pursue justice and accountability” for the disaster, speaking at a vigil in Edmonton, Alberta. He has already demanded that Canada be involved in the investigation. Iran has issued eight additional visas to Canadian officials, who were expected to arrive in Tehran today.
What We’re Following Today
France convenes African leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron has summoned five African presidents—from Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mauritania—to a meeting in the south of France today. There, he seeks to clarify their governments’ stances on the presence of French troops in the Sahel. Macron has threatened to withdraw 4,500 French troops from the region, where they are engaged in the fight against Islamist extremism. France initially intervened in Mali in 2013, and extremist violence is still on the rise—leading to some anti-French sentiment. The United States is also considering withdrawing soldiers from the region.
Mixed messaging from Trump administration. For over a week, U.S. President Donald Trump and officials have scrambled to explain the decision to assassinate the Iranian general, Qassem Suleimani, on Jan. 3, escalating tensions with Iran to the brink of war. Over the weekend, the administration contradicted itself: Trump claimed on Friday that Iran was planning to attack four U.S. embassies, while Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Sunday that he was not shown evidence of those plans. The mixed messaging has added to the debate, with some lawmakers saying the administration hasn’t provided enough evidence of an “imminent” attack.
Philippine volcano could erupt soon. In the Philippines, thousands of people have been evacuated from a volcanic island near Manila. The Taal volcano spewed large amounts of ash and steam on Sunday, disrupting flights and causing authorities to warn of a possible “explosive eruption.” Lava later began to flow from the volcano, forcing the closure of Manila’s airport 60 miles away. Government offices and schools were also closed in the capital on Monday. The Taal volcano is small, but it is one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines, which sits on the “Ring of Fire.” It last erupted in 1977.
The World This Week
Britain’s Queen Elizabeth has called a family meeting today at her Sandringham estate to address the options moving forward for Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, who announced plans to step back from royal duties last week. The talks are likely to focus on logistics, as Harry and Meghan plan to split their time between Canada and Britain.
The last U.S. Democratic presidential debate before the Iowa caucus (Feb. 3) will be held in Des Moines on Tuesday, with six candidates taking the stage—making it the smallest debate so far. Sen. Bernie Sanders moved ahead of his rivals in a new poll from Iowa on Friday, followed closely by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Vice President Joe Biden.
The U.S.-China “phase one” trade deal will be signed in Washington on Wednesday. The deal includes commitments from China to buy more U.S. goods and to crack down on intellectual property violations, though enforcing the agreement could be a challenge. It’s also not the trade deal that Trump campaigned on, as FP’s Keith Johnson explains.
Keep an Eye On
The Australian PM’s dwindling popularity. After devastating bush fires, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating has dropped by eight points to 37 percent—the lowest level since he took office in Aug. 2018. The fires have killed 28 people and destroyed more than 2,000 homes, with critics accusing Morrison’s government of responding too slowly—both to the ongoing bush fire crisis and to global warming.
The case against Netanyahu. A committee could convene today to discuss Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request for immunity from three corruption cases. Most lawmakers are expected to vote against granting immunity to Netanyahu, who was indicted last November. Israel faces its third election in less than a year on March 2.
Anti-government sentiment in Thailand. At least 10,000 people registered for a “Run Against Dictatorship” in Bangkok on Sunday—one of the biggest shows of public dissent yet against Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who took initially power in a 2014 coup and was elected as leader last year. The run followed a large anti-government rally held last month.
Odds and Ends
The Canadian province of Ontario issued an apology on Sunday after a false alarm about an incident at a large nuclear power plant near Toronto, Canada’s most populous city. The alert, part of a training exercise, was sent to cell phone users across the province—angering local mayors. The power plant is scheduled to close down in 2024.
That’s it for today.
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foreignpolicy--2020-01-14--Australians Are Ready to Break Out of the Cycle of Climate Change Denial

Australians Are Ready to Break Out of the Cycle of Climate Change Denial Australia , the fossil-fueled paradise at the bottom of the world , is too easily misunderstood .
The summer bushfire crisis has reinforced views of Australia as a country that for too long kicked back in sun-soaked , carefree denial of the greatest threat our species has faced .
Yet , amid the intense grief felt by every Australian right now , the possibility of change flickers nearby .
The world sees Australia as locked in a cycle of denial and calamity .
As Robinson Meyer wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will find itself stuck in the climate spiral , clinging ever more tightly to coal as its towns and cities choke on the ash of a burning world.
” There is not a lot of hope that Australia might be prodded into kicking its coal habit after its first terrifying trip to the emergency room .
Critics ascribe this to Australia ’ s monochrome media landscape .
Right-leaning outlets rule the nation , with each city ’ s News Corp. masthead dominating readership .
A few younger digital outlets like News.com.au – also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more progressive , but monoliths run highly politicized angles in both straight reporting and blogs .
Key figures such as Terry McCrann , Tim Blair , and Miranda Devine churn out high-frequency , low-research blog posts tuned to each day ’ s target , whether it ’ s a climate policy , a piece of research , or an individual scientist or advocate .
Step into a train station in Sydney ’ s Central Business District , and you will be met with the 10-foot-tall head of the right-wing columnist Andrew Bolt on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to subscribe to his daily broadcasts about the supposed climate change hoax .
There is , of course , a relationship between the demands of the readership and the content these outlets deliver .
But the proportion of the audience coming to these papers for outright climate change denialist content is likely to be vanishingly small , given the pointed lack of disbelief in climate change in the general public in Australia .
The U.K. ’ s the Sun and the Times have much less of the anti-climate science nonsense found on Australia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.K. and Australia sharing similar levels of public acceptance of climate science .
The Australian media pathology has been a specific one , and it ’ s one that has exercised disproportionate influence over politics .
News Corp. ’ s Sky News channel is barely viewed by most Australians , but it is blasted into the nation ’ s Qantas airport lounges , in which you ’ ll find the country ’ s executives and politicians sipping free-flowing red wine .
It also has limited broadcast on regional channels and , anecdotally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tune into in the halls of Canberra .
It does not have a large audience , but the audience it does have skews toward power and influence .
There have been some spectacular clips posted by Sky News on social media .
In one clip , the far-right shock jock Alan Jones attempts to explain Australia ’ s “ tiny ” contribution to global emissions using a packet of rice .
It is the saddest two minutes of television you will ever see .
In another , someone referred to as a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explain why climate change is a hoax .
The life visibly drains from the show ’ s hosts as the astrologer explains how planets many light years distant from Earth are a better explanation for changing weather patterns than the last century of emissions .
Sky News ’ particular style of ludicrousness can be traced back to a talk delivered in early 2012 , in which the U.K.-based activists Christopher Monckton , who does not accept mainstream climate science , proposed the creation of an “ Australian version of Fox News.
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level—which is what you are talking about here—is not going to have much of an impact compared with capturing an entire news media , ” he declared .
Behold : the platform for the business astrologer was born .
Above the city-based bloggers and the Sky News ranters sits the Australian .
It is climate change denial for the people who ’ d never see themselves clutching a tabloid rag or diving into the comments section on a website .
The newspaper provided written support for a half-decade campaign against the pseudoscientific “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about lambs suffering deformities and eggs without yolks , linked by the paper to the presence of low-frequency noise from wind farms .
The Australian ’ s dedication to denying the science of climate change has a long history , summarized by the Guardian journalist Graham Readfearn here .
Its archives will be historically significant for many decades to come as the primary Australian arm of the deadliest pseudoscience of the modern era .
Most recently and very significantly , the Australian was responsible for mistakenly reporting that , as wildfires have swept @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of people supposedly arrested for lighting fires was 183 .
The real figure was 24 charged with deliberately setting fires , with the 183 number including fire-related charges such as discarding cigarette butts and irresponsible barbeques .
This post , along with a tweet from the right-leaning news outlet Seven News also exaggerating the role of arson in the ongoing bushfires , went viral worldwide , feeding a right-wing conspiracy theory that the fires were lit by eco-terrorists trying to fake climate disasters .
Australian police exasperatedly insist arson is not a major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a moot point , anyway .
Climate change makes fire spread quicker and through a larger area , rather than igniting blazes .
Yet there is a reason these outlets now lean toward misinformation on specific issues rather than generalized climate change denial .
Public acceptance of the science has increased significantly since the 2010s .
A 2019 YouGov poll surveying respondents around the world found only 10 percent of Australians either reject a human role in climate change or deny it is changing at all .
On the global stage , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference between it and other countries is not dramatic .
The United States currently sits at 15 percent rejection of change or a human role , Germany is at 7 percent , and Norway matches Australia at 10 percent .
Around the world , climate change denial has lost its voice .
Since the election of the current government in 2013 , there has been little for the News Corp. machine to lock its jaws onto .
Wind turbine syndrome is dead .
Renewable energy has , consistently , been well-loved by Australians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Institute found that 61 percent of respondents want immediate climate action even if that involves significant costs , and that 47 percent prioritize lowering emissions in the power grid ( compared to 38 percent for lowering bills and 15 percent for reducing blackouts ) .
The May 2019 federal election did temporarily provide fodder , with News Corp. outlets framing stronger targets and electric vehicle incentives as the harbingers of economic ruin , but that moment was brief , and the organization has regressed back to boxing with ghosts .
Worse still for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuel companies , 2019 has been a turning point , with support for action moving even further upward .
Suddenly , the issue tops rankings of priorities .
The September 2019 climate march protests drew hundreds of thousands of Australian onto the streets .
Critics said the Extinction Rebellion protests would alienate those supporting action , but the numbers kept growing .
The bushfires crisis is still raging , so it is hard to understand what impact it has had on Australian opinion on climate action , but there is little doubt it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ targets for media attack , the rise in public support for action , and the deep red summer have combined into real consequences for News Corp. A senior finance advisor left with a strongly worded all-staff email declaring the company ’ s work unconscionable .
A revisionist editorial by the Australian claiming that the paper had accurately reported climate science was widely mocked—including by journalists at other Australian outlets .
It is hard to miss the confused nervousness that is now coming through in their mixed declarations on climate change .
Monckton ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Australia has failed .
Pressure is mounting and , although it may wane as the fire season fades , there is a glimmer of hope that it might stick .
Australians are understanding climate change not through 300-page United Nations reports but through the dryness of their throats , the ash falling in their backyards , and the dark brown skies .
It is a disaster that has burned its way into every Australian life .
That is new .
Hopefully , it means denying mainstream climate science is treated as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harmful anti-vaccination movement than the merely quirky flat Earth movement .
There are still several weeks to go in Australia ’ s summer .
Next year ’ s summer might be cooler , but over time , the consequences will continue to escalate , without rapid action to cut emissions .
This is not the new normal—this is the end of normal .
The rising cry of public outrage will translate into pressure through a range of conduits .
There are early signs of a decrease in popularity in polling for Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far from the next trip to the Australian ballot box , it may well translate into enough nervousness to cause leadership instability and reduce the power of the government ’ s conservative , climate change-denying elements .
Companies face increasing pressure too , with the German conglomerate Siemens facing , and ultimately ignoring , incredible pressure to dissociate from the controversial Carmichael coal mine in Queensland .
Relationships between governments and large multinationals will sour .
And the rise of public attention on the Australian government has severely weakened its already-loathed habit of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25 .
For the most horrible of reasons , there is hope for Australia .
News Corp. still holds sway where it counts , among powerful decision-makers desperately seeking to soothe their guilt-ridden consciences .
But like the government , it increasingly finds itself at odds with a pissed-off public .
Australia might end up being the first country in the world to recognize the immediate and serious harm that occurs when we rely on a dangerous , unsafe technology to power our species .
The world may not hold out much hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rage emanating from my long-suffering fellow Australians back home , I am sure that in 2020 the critics will be proven wrong .

Australia, the fossil-fueled paradise at the bottom of the world, is too easily misunderstood. The summer bushfire crisis has reinforced views of Australia as a country that for too long kicked back in sun-soaked, carefree denial of the greatest threat our species has faced. Yet, amid the intense grief felt by every Australian right now, the possibility of change flickers nearby.
Australia, the fossil-fueled paradise at the bottom of the world, is too easily misunderstood. The summer bushfire crisis has reinforced views of Australia as a country that for too long kicked back in sun-soaked, carefree denial of the greatest threat our species has faced. Yet, amid the intense grief felt by every Australian right now, the possibility of change flickers nearby.
The world sees Australia as locked in a cycle of denial and calamity. As Robinson Meyer wrote for the Atlantic, “maybe Australia will find itself stuck in the climate spiral, clinging ever more tightly to coal as its towns and cities choke on the ash of a burning world.” There is not a lot of hope that Australia might be prodded into kicking its coal habit after its first terrifying trip to the emergency room.
Critics ascribe this to Australia’s monochrome media landscape. Right-leaning outlets rule the nation, with each city’s News Corp. masthead dominating readership. A few younger digital outlets like News.com.au – also owned by News Corp. – are slightly more progressive, but monoliths run highly politicized angles in both straight reporting and blogs. Key figures such as Terry McCrann, Tim Blair, and Miranda Devine churn out high-frequency, low-research blog posts tuned to each day’s target, whether it’s a climate policy, a piece of research, or an individual scientist or advocate. Step into a train station in Sydney’s Central Business District, and you will be met with the 10-foot-tall head of the right-wing columnist Andrew Bolt on bright LED advertising boards, urging you to subscribe to his daily broadcasts about the supposed climate change hoax.
There is, of course, a relationship between the demands of the readership and the content these outlets deliver. But the proportion of the audience coming to these papers for outright climate change denialist content is likely to be vanishingly small, given the pointed lack of disbelief in climate change in the general public in Australia. The U.K.’s the Sun and the Times have much less of the anti-climate science nonsense found on Australia’s sites, despite both the U.K. and Australia sharing similar levels of public acceptance of climate science.
The Australian media pathology has been a specific one, and it’s one that has exercised disproportionate influence over politics. News Corp.’s Sky News channel is barely viewed by most Australians, but it is blasted into the nation’s Qantas airport lounges, in which you’ll find the country’s executives and politicians sipping free-flowing red wine. It also has limited broadcast on regional channels and, anecdotally, it tends to be the channel legislators tune into in the halls of Canberra. It does not have a large audience, but the audience it does have skews toward power and influence.
There have been some spectacular clips posted by Sky News on social media. In one clip, the far-right shock jock Alan Jones attempts to explain Australia’s “tiny” contribution to global emissions using a packet of rice. It is the saddest two minutes of television you will ever see. In another, someone referred to as a “business astrologer” is invited on to explain why climate change is a hoax. The life visibly drains from the show’s hosts as the astrologer explains how planets many light years distant from Earth are a better explanation for changing weather patterns than the last century of emissions.
Sky News’ particular style of ludicrousness can be traced back to a talk delivered in early 2012, in which the U.K.-based activists Christopher Monckton, who does not accept mainstream climate science, proposed the creation of an “Australian version of Fox News.” “Frankly whatever you do at a street level—which is what you are talking about here—is not going to have much of an impact compared with capturing an entire news media,” he declared. Behold: the platform for the business astrologer was born.
Above the city-based bloggers and the Sky News ranters sits the Australian. It is climate change denial for the people who’d never see themselves clutching a tabloid rag or diving into the comments section on a website. The newspaper provided written support for a half-decade campaign against the pseudoscientific “wind turbine syndrome,” running articles about lambs suffering deformities and eggs without yolks, linked by the paper to the presence of low-frequency noise from wind farms. The Australian’s dedication to denying the science of climate change has a long history, summarized by the Guardian journalist Graham Readfearn here. Its archives will be historically significant for many decades to come as the primary Australian arm of the deadliest pseudoscience of the modern era.
Most recently and very significantly, the Australian was responsible for mistakenly reporting that, as wildfires have swept Australia in recent months, the number of people supposedly arrested for lighting fires was 183. The real figure was 24 charged with deliberately setting fires, with the 183 number including fire-related charges such as discarding cigarette butts and irresponsible barbeques. This post, along with a tweet from the right-leaning news outlet Seven News also exaggerating the role of arson in the ongoing bushfires, went viral worldwide, feeding a right-wing conspiracy theory that the fires were lit by eco-terrorists trying to fake climate disasters. Australian police exasperatedly insist arson is not a major cause of the disaster, and it is a moot point, anyway. Climate change makes fire spread quicker and through a larger area, rather than igniting blazes.
Yet there is a reason these outlets now lean toward misinformation on specific issues rather than generalized climate change denial. Public acceptance of the science has increased significantly since the 2010s. A 2019 YouGov poll surveying respondents around the world found only 10 percent of Australians either reject a human role in climate change or deny it is changing at all. On the global stage, Australia does lean denialist, but the difference between it and other countries is not dramatic. The United States currently sits at 15 percent rejection of change or a human role, Germany is at 7 percent, and Norway matches Australia at 10 percent. Around the world, climate change denial has lost its voice.
Since the election of the current government in 2013, there has been little for the News Corp. machine to lock its jaws onto. Wind turbine syndrome is dead. Renewable energy has, consistently, been well-loved by Australians. A 2019 poll from the Lowy Institute found that 61 percent of respondents want immediate climate action even if that involves significant costs, and that 47 percent prioritize lowering emissions in the power grid (compared to 38 percent for lowering bills and 15 percent for reducing blackouts). The May 2019 federal election did temporarily provide fodder, with News Corp. outlets framing stronger targets and electric vehicle incentives as the harbingers of economic ruin, but that moment was brief, and the organization has regressed back to boxing with ghosts.
Worse still for media outlets trying hard to protect fossil fuel companies, 2019 has been a turning point, with support for action moving even further upward. Suddenly, the issue tops rankings of priorities. The September 2019 climate march protests drew hundreds of thousands of Australian onto the streets. Critics said the Extinction Rebellion protests would alienate those supporting action, but the numbers kept growing. The bushfires crisis is still raging, so it is hard to understand what impact it has had on Australian opinion on climate action, but there is little doubt it will be significant.
The loss of targets for media attack, the rise in public support for action, and the deep red summer have combined into real consequences for News Corp. A senior finance advisor left with a strongly worded all-staff email declaring the company’s work unconscionable. A revisionist editorial by the Australian claiming that the paper had accurately reported climate science was widely mocked—including by journalists at other Australian outlets. It is hard to miss the confused nervousness that is now coming through in their mixed declarations on climate change.
Monckton’s vision for a media-dominating Fox News of Australia has failed. Pressure is mounting and, although it may wane as the fire season fades, there is a glimmer of hope that it might stick. Australians are understanding climate change not through 300-page United Nations reports but through the dryness of their throats, the ash falling in their backyards, and the dark brown skies. It is a disaster that has burned its way into every Australian life. That is new. Hopefully, it means denying mainstream climate science is treated as it should be: more like the actively harmful anti-vaccination movement than the merely quirky flat Earth movement. There are still several weeks to go in Australia’s summer. Next year’s summer might be cooler, but over time, the consequences will continue to escalate, without rapid action to cut emissions. This is not the new normal—this is the end of normal.
The rising cry of public outrage will translate into pressure through a range of conduits. There are early signs of a decrease in popularity in polling for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and though we are far from the next trip to the Australian ballot box, it may well translate into enough nervousness to cause leadership instability and reduce the power of the government’s conservative, climate change-denying elements. Companies face increasing pressure too, with the German conglomerate Siemens facing, and ultimately ignoring, incredible pressure to dissociate from the controversial Carmichael coal mine in Queensland. Relationships between governments and large multinationals will sour. And the rise of public attention on the Australian government has severely weakened its already-loathed habit of blockading progress at global meetings like COP 25.
For the most horrible of reasons, there is hope for Australia. News Corp. still holds sway where it counts, among powerful decision-makers desperately seeking to soothe their guilt-ridden consciences. But like the government, it increasingly finds itself at odds with a pissed-off public. Australia might end up being the first country in the world to recognize the immediate and serious harm that occurs when we rely on a dangerous, unsafe technology to power our species. The world may not hold out much hope for Australia, but feeling the white-hot rage emanating from my long-suffering fellow Australians back home, I am sure that in 2020 the critics will be proven wrong.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-14--Turkey Must Stop Meddling in Armenian Church Affairs

On Dec. 12 , 2019 , the U.S. Senate approved for the first time a resolution to recognize the Armenian genocide and commemorate “ the killing of an estimated 1,500,000 Armenians by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923.
” The previous day , Turkey ’ s embattled Armenian community of 70,000 elected Sahak Masalyan as the 85th patriarch of the Armenian Apostolic Church .
The patriarchal elections came 11 years too late and featured heavy-handed meddling from a Turkish government increasingly irritated by the growing list of countries that recognize the Armenian genocide .
The Armenian Patriarchate of Istanbul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ autonomy under the Ottoman millet system , as the church provided spiritual and civic leadership to its members .
An Ottoman code in 1863 introduced lay participation in church affairs , and the Turkish government ’ s 1951 decree governing patriarchal elections provided a vaguely worded guideline as to how delegates chosen by lay members and the Spiritual Council would then elect the patriarch .
Mesrob Mutafyan , Turkey ’ s previous Armenian patriarch , died in March 2019 , but he actually had been unable to fulfill leadership duties since 2008 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the circumstances , in January 2010 , a divided Armenian community petitioned Turkey ’ s Interior Ministry , as lay members wished to elect a new patriarch and the clerics a co-patriarch .
The Turkish government responded six months later that there was no legal basis for elections , as the current patriarch was still alive and instead called for the creation of a “ deputy-general patriarch ” position , taking advantage of the divisions within the Armenian community to insert itself firmly into church affairs .
Archbishop Aram Atesyan , whom the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ line with its sensibilities , assumed the role of deputy-general patriarch .
In March 2017 , the Spiritual Council elected Archbishop Karekin Bekdjian , from the German Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church , as locum tenens—a temporary administrator responsible for carrying out the election of a new patriarch .
Within minutes of losing the vote , Atesyan conveniently produced a note from the governor of Istanbul , voiding the elections as they may “ cause disturbance and divisions in the society.
” Later , the Turkish government notified the patriarchate that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still regarded Atesyan as the deputy-general .
The Apostolic Church ’ s uncertain legal standing exacerbates the Armenian community ’ s problems and facilitates the Turkish government ’ s ability to meddle in its affairs and exploit divisions .
The Treaty of Lausanne , signed shortly before the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923 , guaranteed equal rights to the country ’ s Armenians and other non-Muslim minorities but no legal status .
Successive Turkish governments have not only failed to treat the country ’ s religious minorities as equal citizens but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legal status , a criticism that the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom has consistently raised in its annual reports .
To make matters worse , since 2013 , the Turkish government has blocked minority foundations from electing new board members , weakening the very institutions vital for running day-to-day affairs in the absence of legal status for the religious communities themselves .
This policy has not only incapacitated religious minorities by restricting their legal and economic room for maneuver but also left them indebted to the mercy of the Turkish government .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tayyip Erdogan has perfected the art of swinging between scapegoating and benevolent treatment of minorities as part of his strategy of instrumentalizing minorities to advance his policies at home and abroad .
After Mutafyan ’ s death last March , Ankara had to permit elections but introduced a last-minute regulation that rendered many popular candidates ineligible on the grounds that they were serving abroad , reducing the list of candidates to two .
Many members of the Apostolic Church boycotted the elections , including Garo Paylan , one of Turkey ’ s two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I will not recognize the elected person as my patriarch.
” Others went to the polls but showed their anger by voting against Atesyan for his decadelong cooperation with the Turkish government .
Among Turkey ’ s surviving minorities , Armenians perhaps know best the consequences of state interest—for good or bad—in their community and its affairs .
Like many other religious minorities , they were hopeful during the early years of Erdogan ’ s leadership , since he promised to open up Turkey ’ s rigid secular system with his Ottoman-inspired “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his ascent to Turkey ’ s presidency , he even wished that “ the Armenians who lost their lives in the context of the early 20th century rest in peace ” and conveyed his condolences to their descendants .
Despite Erdogan ’ s increasing reliance on Turkey ’ s ultranationalists for his political survival since 2015 , he has not ended his occasional outreach to Armenians .
On the day of the previous patriarch ’ s passing , he tweeted in Western Armenian , “ I was deeply saddened by the death of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offer my condolences to his family , relatives , and our Armenian citizens.
” Erdogan is the first Turkish head of state to reach out in Western Armenian , and his gesture prompted questions about whether he truly sought to heal historic wounds or merely to deflect criticism .
Just six weeks later , on April 24 , Erdogan proved optimists wrong , stating publicly that the 1915 Ottoman policy of relocating “ the Armenian gangs and their supporters … was the most reasonable action.
” This whitewashing attempt drew the ire of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called it “ an ultimate insult to the # Armenian people and to humanity.
” Turkey ’ s Armenians are not the only minorities caught in Erdogan ’ s Byzantine mixing of politics and religion .
The embattled Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of the Greek Orthodox community , as per Turkish law , can only nominate Turkish citizens for the Holy Synod , which in turn elects the patriarch .
Thus , the Greek Orthodox community is also at the mercy of the Turkish government , which can grant or refuse dual citizenship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ church affairs .
Turkey ’ s relations with Armenians at home and abroad touch on deep-rooted issues of national legitimacy and identity .
Resolving these issues will require genuine outreach to Armenians at governmental and societal levels and generations to redress wrongs and heal wounds .
A small step in the right direction , however , would be the recognition of legal status for Armenians and also for Greeks , Jews , and other religious minorities in Turkey—and allowing these communities to elect leaders as they see fit .

On Dec. 12, 2019, the U.S. Senate approved for the first time a resolution to recognize the Armenian genocide and commemorate “the killing of an estimated 1,500,000 Armenians by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923.” The previous day, Turkey’s embattled Armenian community of 70,000 elected Sahak Masalyan as the 85th patriarch of the Armenian Apostolic Church. The patriarchal elections came 11 years too late and featured heavy-handed meddling from a Turkish government increasingly irritated by the growing list of countries that recognize the Armenian genocide.
On Dec. 12, 2019, the U.S. Senate approved for the first time a resolution to recognize the Armenian genocide and commemorate “the killing of an estimated 1,500,000 Armenians by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923.” The previous day, Turkey’s embattled Armenian community of 70,000 elected Sahak Masalyan as the 85th patriarch of the Armenian Apostolic Church. The patriarchal elections came 11 years too late and featured heavy-handed meddling from a Turkish government increasingly irritated by the growing list of countries that recognize the Armenian genocide.
The Armenian Patriarchate of Istanbul, established in 1461, enjoyed relative autonomy under the Ottoman millet system, as the church provided spiritual and civic leadership to its members. An Ottoman code in 1863 introduced lay participation in church affairs, and the Turkish government’s 1951 decree governing patriarchal elections provided a vaguely worded guideline as to how delegates chosen by lay members and the Spiritual Council would then elect the patriarch.
Mesrob Mutafyan, Turkey’s previous Armenian patriarch, died in March 2019, but he actually had been unable to fulfill leadership duties since 2008, due to early onset dementia. Given the circumstances, in January 2010, a divided Armenian community petitioned Turkey’s Interior Ministry, as lay members wished to elect a new patriarch and the clerics a co-patriarch.
The Turkish government responded six months later that there was no legal basis for elections, as the current patriarch was still alive and instead called for the creation of a “deputy-general patriarch” position, taking advantage of the divisions within the Armenian community to insert itself firmly into church affairs. Archbishop Aram Atesyan, whom the Turkish government considered to be more in line with its sensibilities, assumed the role of deputy-general patriarch.
In March 2017, the Spiritual Council elected Archbishop Karekin Bekdjian, from the German Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, as locum tenens—a temporary administrator responsible for carrying out the election of a new patriarch. Within minutes of losing the vote, Atesyan conveniently produced a note from the governor of Istanbul, voiding the elections as they may “cause disturbance and divisions in the society.” Later, the Turkish government notified the patriarchate that the Turkish authorities did not recognize Bekdjian and still regarded Atesyan as the deputy-general.
The Apostolic Church’s uncertain legal standing exacerbates the Armenian community’s problems and facilitates the Turkish government’s ability to meddle in its affairs and exploit divisions. The Treaty of Lausanne, signed shortly before the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923, guaranteed equal rights to the country’s Armenians and other non-Muslim minorities but no legal status. Successive Turkish governments have not only failed to treat the country’s religious minorities as equal citizens but also prevented their religious bodies from obtaining legal status, a criticism that the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom has consistently raised in its annual reports.
To make matters worse, since 2013, the Turkish government has blocked minority foundations from electing new board members, weakening the very institutions vital for running day-to-day affairs in the absence of legal status for the religious communities themselves. This policy has not only incapacitated religious minorities by restricting their legal and economic room for maneuver but also left them indebted to the mercy of the Turkish government. Over the years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has perfected the art of swinging between scapegoating and benevolent treatment of minorities as part of his strategy of instrumentalizing minorities to advance his policies at home and abroad.
After Mutafyan’s death last March, Ankara had to permit elections but introduced a last-minute regulation that rendered many popular candidates ineligible on the grounds that they were serving abroad, reducing the list of candidates to two. Many members of the Apostolic Church boycotted the elections, including Garo Paylan, one of Turkey’s two Armenian lawmakers, who protested, “I will not recognize the elected person as my patriarch.” Others went to the polls but showed their anger by voting against Atesyan for his decadelong cooperation with the Turkish government.
Among Turkey’s surviving minorities, Armenians perhaps know best the consequences of state interest—for good or bad—in their community and its affairs. Like many other religious minorities, they were hopeful during the early years of Erdogan’s leadership, since he promised to open up Turkey’s rigid secular system with his Ottoman-inspired “tolerance.” In 2014, shortly before his ascent to Turkey’s presidency, he even wished that “the Armenians who lost their lives in the context of the early 20th century rest in peace” and conveyed his condolences to their descendants.
Despite Erdogan’s increasing reliance on Turkey’s ultranationalists for his political survival since 2015, he has not ended his occasional outreach to Armenians. On the day of the previous patriarch’s passing, he tweeted in Western Armenian, “I was deeply saddened by the death of the … honorable Mesrob Mutafyan. I offer my condolences to his family, relatives, and our Armenian citizens.” Erdogan is the first Turkish head of state to reach out in Western Armenian, and his gesture prompted questions about whether he truly sought to heal historic wounds or merely to deflect criticism.
Just six weeks later, on April 24, Erdogan proved optimists wrong, stating publicly that the 1915 Ottoman policy of relocating “the Armenian gangs and their supporters … was the most reasonable action.” This whitewashing attempt drew the ire of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who called it “an ultimate insult to the #Armenian people and to humanity.”
Turkey’s Armenians are not the only minorities caught in Erdogan’s Byzantine mixing of politics and religion. The embattled Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of the Greek Orthodox community, as per Turkish law, can only nominate Turkish citizens for the Holy Synod, which in turn elects the patriarch. Thus, the Greek Orthodox community is also at the mercy of the Turkish government, which can grant or refuse dual citizenship to foreign-born clerics and thereby meddle in church affairs.
Turkey’s relations with Armenians at home and abroad touch on deep-rooted issues of national legitimacy and identity. Resolving these issues will require genuine outreach to Armenians at governmental and societal levels and generations to redress wrongs and heal wounds. A small step in the right direction, however, would be the recognition of legal status for Armenians and also for Greeks, Jews, and other religious minorities in Turkey—and allowing these communities to elect leaders as they see fit.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-14--U.S. Announces New Sanctions on Venezuela

U.S .
Announces New Sanctions on Venezuela Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The United States issues sanctions against seven Venezuelan politicians , protests continue after the plane disaster in Iran , Russian spies hack the Ukrainian gas company Burisma , and Haiti ’ s president threatens to rule by decree .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday , please sign up here .
The United States imposed new sanctions against seven Venezuelan politicians , including Luis Parra , on Monday .
The move comes a week after the military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the National Assembly building—just long enough for Parra , an ally of President Nicolás Maduro ’ s regime , to be declared the new head of congress .
( Guaidó was reelected in a separate session held by opposition lawmakers . )
On Monday , U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin characterized the incident as taking place “ at the bidding of Maduro.
” The sanctions , the latest U.S. action to target the Maduro regime , will freeze any assets held by the seven lawmakers in the United States and prevent them from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The move comes a year after the United States recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela .
Slipping support ?
Last week ’ s leadership crisis was seen by many as a blow to the opposition .
While Guaidó was reelected by his peers and managed to enter the National Assembly on the first day of the new session , he ’ s likely to hold future sessions elsewhere .
Meanwhile , the size of his rallies have dwindled since early 2019 .
On Saturday , Guaidó called for more protests against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crowd of just a few hundred people in Caracas .
Beyond the capital .
Still , the Maduro regime ’ s grip does not extend far outside Caracas , the New York Times reports .
The economy suffers under bad management and U.S. sanctions .
While the president uses his power to keep resources flowing in the capital , basic services in the countryside are nearly non-existent .
Now , people are turning to gangs , paramilitaries , or Colombian guerrillas for protection and aid .
Iran faces further fallout over Tehran plane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where demonstrators have pushed back against the government since it admitted the military mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane in Tehran last week , killing all 176 people on board .
Though it is difficult to know the scale of the protests , images online showed crowds of possibly hundreds in Tehran and in the southern city of Isfahan .
In videos from the previous days , gunshots could be heard—raising fears that the regime has begun to crack down on the unrest .
( Iran ’ s police have denied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials from the five countries with citizens onboard the plane—including Canada , which had at least 57 citizens on the flight—will meet later this week in London to consider possible legal action .
Canadian officials have been invited to help analyze the flight data recorders from the plane and Canadian experts will be allowed to see the wreckage and the crash site .
The analysis of the black boxes could take place in Ukraine .
Russian hack of Ukrainian gas company at center of impeachment probe .
A California-based cybersecurity firm , Area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Moscow ’ s military intelligence agency , the GRU , hacked Burisma—the Ukrainian gas company at the center of the debate over President Donald Trump ’ s impeachment .
Last year , according to various witnesses , Trump pressured Ukrainian leaders to investigate Burisma and its ties to Hunter Biden , the son of the former U.S. vice president , Joe Biden .
According to Area 1 , the GRU targeted Burisma employees with a so-called phishing attack in order to gain access to their accounts and company data .
Haitian president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political deadlock , Haiti ’ s President Jovenel Moïse said Monday that he may rule by decree later this week .
Analysts say the move would undermine the legitimacy of the country ’ s democracy .
Moïse claims the mandates of senior lawmakers have expired after Haiti failed to hold elections in October .
( His opponents blame him for seeking to reshape the electoral law . )
Haiti has faced months of street protests demanding Moïse ’ s resignation over poverty and corruption .
The president is almost three years into a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia .
Though forecasts call for rain on Australia ’ s east coast later this week , the danger of the bush fire season is nowhere near over .
On Monday , at least 180 fires were still burning and Melbourne was blanketed in smoke , sending air quality to dangerous levels .
Climate experts have warned that the devastating fire conditions could become the norm in Australia—forcing the government to reconsider its policies .
Facing criticism , conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison has suggested that his government would revisit its targets to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debate .
Six U.S. Democratic presidential candidates qualified to take the stage later today in Iowa .
With most of the original contenders dropping out—including Sen. Cory Booker on Monday—the field has narrowed considerably .
Ahead of the debate , Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders clashed over Warren ’ s statement that Sanders told her in 2018 that a woman couldn ’ t defeat U.S. President Donald Trump .
Catalan separatists in the EU Parliament .
Two Catalan separatist leaders began their terms as lawmakers in the European Parliament on Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the agenda .
Spain has called for the arrest of Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comin , who live in self-imposed exile Belgium .
The pair were elected in May but at first prevented from taking their oaths .
Afghan refugees in Iran .
Iran is forcibly deporting tens of thousands of Afghan refugees , including many who have lived in Iran for decades .
Returning to the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan puts the deportees at significant risk , leading many to make attempt to cross back over the border and into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report for FP .
The Afghanistan Papers published by the Washington Post last month provide an insider ’ s view of the failures of U.S. strategy in the war in Afghanistan .
Kelly McHugh-Stewart was a teenager when her father , U.S. Army Col. John M. McHugh , was killed while on duty in Afghanistan .
She spent years trying to understand the war , only to find an unexpected comfort in the revelation that even the most senior U.S. policymakers didn ’ t fully grasp what they were doing , as she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Post .
–Amy Mackinnon The Korean film Parasite made history on Monday , becoming the first Korean production nominated for best picture at the Academy Awards .
( It ’ s also the first to compete in the international feature category . )
Directed by Bong Joon Ho , the movie is a class satire that has performed unusually well at the U.S. box office for a foreign language film .
Parasite has been nominated for six Oscars in total .
No foreign language film has ever won best picture .
For more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States issues sanctions against seven Venezuelan politicians, protests continue after the plane disaster in Iran , Russian spies hack the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, and Haiti’s president threatens to rule by decree.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The United States issues sanctions against seven Venezuelan politicians, protests continue after the plane disaster in Iran, Russian spies hack the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, and Haiti’s president threatens to rule by decree.
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New U.S. Sanctions Hit Maduro Regime
The United States imposed new sanctions against seven Venezuelan politicians, including Luis Parra, on Monday. The move comes a week after the military blocked opposition leader Juan Guaidó from entering the National Assembly building—just long enough for Parra, an ally of President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, to be declared the new head of congress. (Guaidó was reelected in a separate session held by opposition lawmakers.)
On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin characterized the incident as taking place “at the bidding of Maduro.” The sanctions, the latest U.S. action to target the Maduro regime, will freeze any assets held by the seven lawmakers in the United States and prevent them from engaging in business with U.S companies. The move comes a year after the United States recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
Slipping support? Last week’s leadership crisis was seen by many as a blow to the opposition. While Guaidó was reelected by his peers and managed to enter the National Assembly on the first day of the new session, he’s likely to hold future sessions elsewhere. Meanwhile, the size of his rallies have dwindled since early 2019. On Saturday, Guaidó called for more protests against the Maduro regime in front of a crowd of just a few hundred people in Caracas.
Beyond the capital. Still, the Maduro regime’s grip does not extend far outside Caracas, the New York Times reports. The economy suffers under bad management and U.S. sanctions. While the president uses his power to keep resources flowing in the capital, basic services in the countryside are nearly non-existent. Now, people are turning to gangs, paramilitaries, or Colombian guerrillas for protection and aid.
What We’re Following Today
Iran faces further fallout over Tehran plane crash. Protests are ongoing in Iran, where demonstrators have pushed back against the government since it admitted the military mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane in Tehran last week, killing all 176 people on board. Though it is difficult to know the scale of the protests, images online showed crowds of possibly hundreds in Tehran and in the southern city of Isfahan. In videos from the previous days, gunshots could be heard—raising fears that the regime has begun to crack down on the unrest. (Iran’s police have denied using live rounds.)
Meanwhile, officials from the five countries with citizens onboard the plane—including Canada, which had at least 57 citizens on the flight—will meet later this week in London to consider possible legal action. Canadian officials have been invited to help analyze the flight data recorders from the plane and Canadian experts will be allowed to see the wreckage and the crash site. The analysis of the black boxes could take place in Ukraine.
Russian hack of Ukrainian gas company at center of impeachment probe. A California-based cybersecurity firm, Area 1 Security, claims that Russian spies from Moscow’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, hacked Burisma—the Ukrainian gas company at the center of the debate over President Donald Trump’s impeachment. Last year, according to various witnesses, Trump pressured Ukrainian leaders to investigate Burisma and its ties to Hunter Biden, the son of the former U.S. vice president, Joe Biden. According to Area 1, the GRU targeted Burisma employees with a so-called phishing attack in order to gain access to their accounts and company data.
Haitian president could soon rule by decree. Facing political deadlock, Haiti’s President Jovenel Moïse said Monday that he may rule by decree later this week. Analysts say the move would undermine the legitimacy of the country’s democracy. Moïse claims the mandates of senior lawmakers have expired after Haiti failed to hold elections in October. (His opponents blame him for seeking to reshape the electoral law.) Haiti has faced months of street protests demanding Moïse’s resignation over poverty and corruption. The president is almost three years into a five-year term.
Fires still burning in Australia. Though forecasts call for rain on Australia’s east coast later this week, the danger of the bush fire season is nowhere near over. On Monday, at least 180 fires were still burning and Melbourne was blanketed in smoke, sending air quality to dangerous levels. Climate experts have warned that the devastating fire conditions could become the norm in Australia—forcing the government to reconsider its policies. Facing criticism, conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison has suggested that his government would revisit its targets to cut carbon emissions.
Keep an Eye On
Another U.S. Democratic debate. Six U.S. Democratic presidential candidates qualified to take the stage later today in Iowa. With most of the original contenders dropping out—including Sen. Cory Booker on Monday—the field has narrowed considerably. Ahead of the debate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders clashed over Warren’s statement that Sanders told her in 2018 that a woman couldn’t defeat U.S. President Donald Trump.
Catalan separatists in the EU Parliament. Two Catalan separatist leaders began their terms as lawmakers in the European Parliament on Monday, promising to put their secessionist cause on the agenda. Spain has called for the arrest of Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comin, who live in self-imposed exile Belgium. The pair were elected in May but at first prevented from taking their oaths.
Afghan refugees in Iran. Iran is forcibly deporting tens of thousands of Afghan refugees, including many who have lived in Iran for decades. Returning to the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan puts the deportees at significant risk, leading many to make attempt to cross back over the border and into Iran, Ruchi Kumar and Hikmat Noori report for FP.
Foreign Policy Recommends
The Afghanistan Papers published by the Washington Post last month provide an insider’s view of the failures of U.S. strategy in the war in Afghanistan. Kelly McHugh-Stewart was a teenager when her father, U.S. Army Col. John M. McHugh, was killed while on duty in Afghanistan. She spent years trying to understand the war, only to find an unexpected comfort in the revelation that even the most senior U.S. policymakers didn’t fully grasp what they were doing, as she writes candidly this week in the Washington Post. –Amy Mackinnon
Odds and Ends
The Korean film Parasite made history on Monday, becoming the first Korean production nominated for best picture at the Academy Awards. (It’s also the first to compete in the international feature category.) Directed by Bong Joon Ho, the movie is a class satire that has performed unusually well at the U.S. box office for a foreign language film. Parasite has been nominated for six Oscars in total. No foreign language film has ever won best picture.
That’s it for today.
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