foreignpolicy--2020-12-22--Israeli Knesset Likely to Dissolve as Extension Vote Fails

Israeli Knesset Likely to Dissolve as Extension Vote Fails Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Israel ’ s government on edge as deadline looms , more countries shut borders to the United Kingdom amid new coronavirus mutation , and the world this week .
A note for our readers : Morning Brief is on a holiday schedule for the next two weeks .
We will publish tomorrow Dec. 23 , and then on Dec. 29 and Dec. 30 the following week .
We ’ ll resume normal service in 2021 .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midnight tonight to broker an agreement on a budget or face an automatic dissolution of parliament and snap elections , likely to be held in March .
A vote taken late Monday night to postpone tonight ’ s deadline failed in the Knesset , reflecting the tenuous nature of the alliance between Benjamin Netanyahu ’ s Likud party and Benny Gantz ’ s Blue and White .
Speaking to the press on Monday while White House adviser Jared Kushner looked on , Netanyahu blamed Gantz for causing “ unnecessary elections ” because of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and White .
New challengers .
If Israel is to face its fourth election in two years , it will again be under a new political landscape .
The expected March vote will come after the start of Benjamin Netanyahu ’ s corruption trial and will likely feature New Hope , the party of Gideon Saar , a former Likud member who failed to oust Netanyahu in leadership elections last year .
Despite the new challenge , polls still favor Likud to win more seats than any other party—but Saar ’ s breakaway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to form a majority coalition .
A white flag for Blue and White ?
Whether Gantz ’ s Blue and White remains a political force is an open question .
Formed in fierce opposition to Netanyahu only to join him in government , the party is enduring “ the most rapid write-off in Israeli political history , ” Anshel Pfeffer writes in Haaretz .
Blue and White is bleeding members , and according to current polls would struggle to breach the 3.25 percent vote threshold to enter parliament .
As Joshua Mitnick wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may have grown weary of the near-constant electioneering .
“ The price of a fourth election since the start of 2019 is likely a lower voter turnout , “ Mitnick writes .
On Tuesday , Dec. 22 , a joint U.S.-Israeli delegation , including White House advisor Jared Kushner , will travel on the first commercial flight from Israel to Morocco following a deal announced earlier this month that normalized relations between the two countries .
A 48-hour suspension of all travel from the United Kingdom to France , announced on Sunday in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 virus identified in the United Kingdom , is set to expire .
Wednesday , Dec. 23 is the deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump to veto the National Defense Authorization Act , the bill funding U.S. defense operations for the coming year .
Trump has threatened to veto the bill over lawmakers ’ refusal to include a provision striking Section 230 of the Communications Act , a law which Trump believes stifles conservatives on social media platforms .
Trump is also upset at a provision in the bill that would rename U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fought against the government in the U.S. civil war .
If Trump does issue a veto , an override vote in Congress is expected to be scheduled .
On Thursday , Dec. 24 new Moldovan president Maia Sandu is expected to be sworn in .
Sandu defeated incumbent Igor Dodon in the Nov. 15 runoff and has since faced opposition from parliament .
Lawmakers voted to move authority over the intelligence services from the presidency to parliament , a move that Sandu railed against , saying it was a reaction to her anti-corruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , general elections take place in Central African Republic and Niger .
Both countries will vote to elect a president as well as a new National Assembly .
Countries across the European Union are expected to begin COVID-19 vaccinations following the approval of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine by European regulators .
Congress passes relief package .
The U.S. Congress passed a $ 900 billion coronavirus relief package , the second largest in U.S. history , late Monday night .
The 5,593-page bill now goes to President Donald Trump ’ s desk , where he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its many provisions , the bill includes a $ 600 dollar check for Americans earning less that $ 75,000 in 2019 and an extension in federal unemployment benefits .
Despite the stimulus , the bill also includes a further extension to some tax breaks , likely setting up a headache if lawmakers decide to become deficit hawks during the Biden administration : tax provisions in the bill would cut revenues by $ 150 billion , the Washington Post reports .
The coronavirus mutates .
After more than 30 countries banned flights from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , more transmissible , COVID-19 variant , the World Health Organization has said that much remains unknown about the virus mutation ’ s effects on current treatments and vaccines .
Medical authorities are already studying the effect the mutated virus has on the antibodies of those already immunized or recovered from the previous coronavirus strain .
The variant has so far been identified in Denmark , the Netherlands , and Australia .
Romania ’ s new government .
Romania will form a new government after three center-right parties agreed to a coalition deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PNL ) —a surprise second place finisher in Dec. 6 elections—retain power , albeit without Ludovic Orban at its head .
Per the terms of the agreement , Finance Minister Florin Citu is to be nominated as prime minister .
The Social Democrats ( PSD ) will stay in opposition despite winning 30 percent of the vote—the most of any party .
They will be joined on the opposition benches by the far-right Alliance for Romanian Unity ( AUR ) , which won 9 percent of the vote despite only being established as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ join strike .
Kenyan doctors have joined the country ’ s clinicians and nurses working in public health facilities on a nationwide strike over working conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic .
The doctors union—which called the strike on Monday—have used the example of Stephen Mogsu , a 28-year-old medical intern who died of COVID-19 , to bring awareness to their cause , launching the strike from his hometown in Kisii county .
Health Minister Mutahi Kagwe told local governments over the weekend to begin advertising job vacancies to replace those on strike , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries reaffirm commitment .
The foreign ministers of Iran , Germany , France , the United Kingdom , China , and Russia issued a joint statement on Monday renewing their commitment to the Iran nuclear deal , opening the door for President-elect Joe Biden to reenter the agreement .
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned Iran against making moves in the coming weeks that would jeopardize a U.S. return to the deal .
“ To make possible a rapprochement with the U.S. under Biden , there should be no further tactical maneuvers of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of in the recent past , ” Maas told reporters .
Writing in Foreign Policy , Saheb Sadeghi explains how Biden can outmaneuver hardliners in Iran ( and at home ) to steer the United States back toward the Iran deal .
North Korea trade .
North Korea ’ s trade with China has collapsed in recent months , according to official data from China ’ s customs office cited in the Wall Street Journal .
Trade in October was worth just $ 1.7 million , a 99 percent drop based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , trade between the two countries has decreased by 75 percent in 2020 compared to the previous year .
Experts point to strict coronavirus restrictions on both sides of the border as the underlying reason for the drop .
Conversations with a killer .
Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny appears to have outed one of his poisoners in audacious fashion , by getting a member of Russia ’ s security services to admit to the act in a recorded phone conversation .
Navalny is reported to have spoofed his phone number so a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come from an internal FSB landline , and impersonated a senior official .
Kudryavtsev then proceeded to tell Navalny the details of the botched poisoning , including a trip to the Siberian town of Omsk to treat Navalny ’ s clothes so that the nerve agent Novichok would not be detected .
Top spin .
Global tennis star Novak Djokovic has lent his star power to a town in Bosnia which claims to be home to the world ’ s oldest pyramid , despite the groans of archaeologists .
The town of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hill , a sharp-edged flatiron mountain resembling a pyramid formed by geological activity .
The town ’ s dubious claim to fame has been pushed by Bosnian-American businessman Semir Osmanagic , who invited Djokovic to visit .
Djokovic reportedly meditated in tunnels under Visoko that Osmanagic claims were made by ancient people thousands of years ago .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Israel’s government is on edge as deadline looms, more countries shut borders to the United Kingdom amid new coronavirus mutation, and what to watch in the world this week.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Israel’s government is on edge as deadline looms, more countries shut borders to the United Kingdom amid new coronavirus mutation, and what to watch in the world this week.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Israel Headed For New Elections In New Year
Israeli lawmakers have until midnight tonight to broker an agreement on a budget or face an automatic dissolution of parliament and snap elections, likely to be held in March.
A vote taken late Monday night to postpone tonight’s deadline failed in the Knesset, reflecting the tenuous nature of the alliance between Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White. Speaking to the press on Monday while White House adviser Jared Kushner looked on, Netanyahu blamed Gantz for causing “unnecessary elections” because of the internal pressure he faced within Blue and White.
New challengers. If Israel is to face its fourth election in two years, it will again be under a new political landscape. The expected March vote will come after the start of Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial and will likely feature New Hope, the party of Gideon Saar, a former Likud member who failed to oust Netanyahu in leadership elections last year. Despite the new challenge, polls still favor Likud to win more seats than any other party—but Saar’s breakaway party would make it hard for Netanyahu to form a majority coalition.
A white flag for Blue and White? Whether Gantz’s Blue and White remains a political force is an open question. Formed in fierce opposition to Netanyahu only to join him in government, the party is enduring “the most rapid write-off in Israeli political history,” Anshel Pfeffer writes in Haaretz. Blue and White is bleeding members, and according to current polls would struggle to breach the 3.25 percent vote threshold to enter parliament.
As Joshua Mitnick wrote in Foreign Policy earlier this month, the Israeli public may have grown weary of the near-constant electioneering. “The price of a fourth election since the start of 2019 is likely a lower voter turnout,” Mitnick writes.
The World This Week
On Tuesday, Dec. 22, a joint U.S.-Israeli delegation, including White House advisor Jared Kushner, will travel on the first commercial flight from Israel to Morocco following a deal announced earlier this month that normalized relations between the two countries.
A 48-hour suspension of all travel from the United Kingdom to France, announced on Sunday in response to the new variant of the COVID-19 virus identified in the United Kingdom, is set to expire.
Wednesday, Dec. 23 is the deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump to veto the National Defense Authorization Act, the bill funding U.S. defense operations for the coming year.
Trump has threatened to veto the bill over lawmakers’ refusal to include a provision striking Section 230 of the Communications Act, a law which Trump believes stifles conservatives on social media platforms. Trump is also upset at a provision in the bill that would rename U.S. military bases currently named after generals who fought against the government in the U.S. civil war. If Trump does issue a veto, an override vote in Congress is expected to be scheduled.
On Thursday, Dec. 24 new Moldovan president Maia Sandu is expected to be sworn in. Sandu defeated incumbent Igor Dodon in the Nov. 15 runoff and has since faced opposition from parliament.
Lawmakers voted to move authority over the intelligence services from the presidency to parliament, a move that Sandu railed against, saying it was a reaction to her anti-corruption pledges.
On Sunday, Dec. 27, general elections take place in Central African Republic and Niger. Both countries will vote to elect a president as well as a new National Assembly.
Countries across the European Union are expected to begin COVID-19 vaccinations following the approval of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine by European regulators.
What We’re Following Today
Congress passes relief package. The U.S. Congress passed a $900 billion coronavirus relief package, the second largest in U.S. history, late Monday night. The 5,593-page bill now goes to President Donald Trump’s desk, where he is expected to sign it. Among its many provisions, the bill includes a $600 dollar check for Americans earning less that $75,000 in 2019 and an extension in federal unemployment benefits.
Despite the stimulus, the bill also includes a further extension to some tax breaks, likely setting up a headache if lawmakers decide to become deficit hawks during the Biden administration: Tax provisions in the bill would cut revenues by $150 billion, the Washington Post reports.
The coronavirus mutates. After more than 30 countries banned flights from the U.K. following the identification of a new, more transmissible, COVID-19 variant, the World Health Organization has said that much remains unknown about the virus mutation’s effects on current treatments and vaccines. Medical authorities are already studying the effect the mutated virus has on the antibodies of those already immunized or recovered from the previous coronavirus strain. The variant has so far been identified in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Australia.
Romania’s new government. Romania will form a new government after three center-right parties agreed to a coalition deal that would see National Liberal Party (PNL)—a surprise second place finisher in Dec. 6 elections—retain power, albeit without Ludovic Orban at its head. Per the terms of the agreement, Finance Minister Florin Citu is to be nominated as prime minister. The Social Democrats (PSD) will stay in opposition despite winning 30 percent of the vote—the most of any party.
They will be joined on the opposition benches by the far-right Alliance for Romanian Unity (AUR), which won 9 percent of the vote despite only being established as a party last year.
Keep an Eye On
Kenyan doctors join strike. Kenyan doctors have joined the country’s clinicians and nurses working in public health facilities on a nationwide strike over working conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The doctors union—which called the strike on Monday—have used the example of Stephen Mogsu, a 28-year-old medical intern who died of COVID-19, to bring awareness to their cause, launching the strike from his hometown in Kisii county. Health Minister Mutahi Kagwe told local governments over the weekend to begin advertising job vacancies to replace those on strike, further angering health care workers.
JCPOA countries reaffirm commitment. The foreign ministers of Iran, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on Monday renewing their commitment to the Iran nuclear deal, opening the door for President-elect Joe Biden to reenter the agreement. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned Iran against making moves in the coming weeks that would jeopardize a U.S. return to the deal. “To make possible a rapprochement with the U.S. under Biden, there should be no further tactical maneuvers of the kind we’ve seen too many of in the recent past,” Maas told reporters.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Saheb Sadeghi explains how Biden can outmaneuver hardliners in Iran (and at home) to steer the United States back toward the Iran deal.
North Korea trade. North Korea’s trade with China has collapsed in recent months, according to official data from China’s customs office cited in the Wall Street Journal. Trade in October was worth just $1.7 million, a 99 percent drop based on the same month in 2019. Overall, trade between the two countries has decreased by 75 percent in 2020 compared to the previous year. Experts point to strict coronavirus restrictions on both sides of the border as the underlying reason for the drop.
Odds and Ends
Conversations with a killer. Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny appears to have outed one of his poisoners in audacious fashion, by getting a member of Russia’s security services to admit to the act in a recorded phone conversation. Navalny is reported to have spoofed his phone number so a call to FSB agent Konstantin Kudryavtsev appeared to come from an internal FSB landline, and impersonated a senior official.
Kudryavtsev then proceeded to tell Navalny the details of the botched poisoning, including a trip to the Siberian town of Omsk to treat Navalny’s clothes so that the nerve agent Novichok would not be detected.
Top spin. Global tennis star Novak Djokovic has lent his star power to a town in Bosnia which claims to be home to the world’s oldest pyramid, despite the groans of archaeologists. The town of Visoko sits in the shadow of Visocica Hill, a sharp-edged flatiron mountain resembling a pyramid formed by geological activity.
The town’s dubious claim to fame has been pushed by Bosnian-American businessman Semir Osmanagic, who invited Djokovic to visit. Djokovic reportedly meditated in tunnels under Visoko that Osmanagic claims were made by ancient people thousands of years ago.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-22--In Yemen, No End in Sight to the World’s Worst Humanitarian Crisis

In Yemen , No End in Sight to the World ’ s Worst Humanitarian Crisis After six years of conflict , Yemen remains mired in the world ’ s worst humanitarian crisis , with a Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi militias in a grueling proxy war of Middle East rivals that has left millions of people on the brink of famine .
United Nations-brokered negotiations between the warring factions have started , sputtered , and stalled numerous times , leaving the country in a grim limbo with no clear offramp for a lasting peace agreement .
Meanwhile , top U.N. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given barely half of what aid groups say is needed to supply the embattled civilian population with food , medicine , and other life-saving humanitarian assistance .
In Washington , the conflict in Yemen has sparked some of the most intriguing political fights in the Trump administration , as a coalition of conservative Republican and progressive Democratic lawmakers banded together to try to halt U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition and reassert Congress ’ s war power authorities .
Yet President Donald Trump has repeatedly vetoed or fended off legislation aimed at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restricting presidential authorities to greenlight military actions abroad without prior congressional approval .
Congress also launched investigations into the Trump administration ’ s expedited arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates , another Gulf power engaged in the conflict against the Houthis , leading to public sparring between top Trump diplomats and lawmakers .
President-elect Joe Biden could alter U.S. policy on Yemen , bringing an end to the battles in Washington—but the conflict there still has no end in sight .
Here are five of the best Foreign Policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallout .
1 .
Pompeo to Pressure U.N. Over Aid to Yemen In March , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to New York to pressure U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to scale back aid to devastated civilians in Yemen , lest the foreign assistance fall into the hands of the Iran-backed rebels .
The episode underscored how precarious the U.N. ’ s position was in Yemen , as it faced pressure from the Trump administration to crack down on Houthis as part of its broader campaign against Iran , and from other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sought to keep vital aid routes open .
2 .
Pompeo ’ s Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia Were Legal—But Heightened Risks of Civilian Casualties in Yemen Pompeo ’ s decision to circumvent Congress and expedite arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sparked outrage in Congress and led to an internal State Department investigation .
The State Department ’ s watchdog eventually found that while Pompeo did not use improper channels to expedite the arms sales , he didn ’ t adequately take into account how it would heighten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many Yemen watchers , the bureaucratic battle perfectly encapsulated all the fights in Washington over Trump ’ s Middle East policies , with humanitarian issues taking a back seat to arms sales and confronting Iran .
Prizes are great , but they don ’ t pay the bills for a cash-strapped U.N. agency .
In October , the U.N. ’ s World Food Program ( WFP ) won the Nobel Peace Prize for its efforts to combat hunger worldwide .
But celebrations at WFP were short-lived , as Foreign Policy reported in October @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about funding shortfalls and a surge in humanitarian crises , spurred in part by the global coronavirus pandemic—nowhere more than in Yemen .
The story of how the WFP earned international plaudits without money to match underscores the challenge humanitarian agencies and organizations have in dealing with the long-term recovery of Yemen as donor fatigue accelerates .
Saudi Arabia has had a cozy four years with the Trump administration , even as every other corner of Washington soured on Riyadh after the bone-saw execution of a Washington Post journalist , continued human rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war in Yemen .
But that ’ s all likely to change under Biden , Aaron David Miller argues in Foreign Policy .
Biden has called for an end to the “ disastrous war ” in Yemen and , reflecting the mood of many members of Congress , indicated he would reassess the U.S.-Saudi relationship , including the blank check for arms sales and the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology .
In November , Foreign Policy reported that the Trump administration planned to designate Yemen ’ s Houthi rebels as terrorists before leaving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot at the Iran-linked group .
The designation has stalled after the administration faced fierce pushback from some lawmakers and humanitarian groups , which warn that it would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis .
Whether Trump ultimately pulls the trigger remains to be seen , but the debate reflects how the administration has elevated its hard-line approach to Iran and its regional proxies above all else—and reminds other world powers that Trump might still have some surprise policy moves up his sleeve before he leaves the White House in January .

After six years of conflict, Yemen remains mired in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with a Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi militias in a grueling proxy war of Middle East rivals that has left millions of people on the brink of famine. United Nations-brokered negotiations between the warring factions have started, sputtered, and stalled numerous times, leaving the country in a grim limbo with no clear offramp for a lasting peace agreement. Meanwhile, top U.N. officials are warning that international donors have given barely half of what aid groups say is needed to supply the embattled civilian population with food, medicine, and other life-saving humanitarian assistance.
After six years of conflict, Yemen remains mired in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with a Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi militias in a grueling proxy war of Middle East rivals that has left millions of people on the brink of famine. United Nations-brokered negotiations between the warring factions have started, sputtered, and stalled numerous times, leaving the country in a grim limbo with no clear offramp for a lasting peace agreement. Meanwhile, top U.N. officials are warning that international donors have given barely half of what aid groups say is needed to supply the embattled civilian population with food, medicine, and other life-saving humanitarian assistance.
In Washington, the conflict in Yemen has sparked some of the most intriguing political fights in the Trump administration, as a coalition of conservative Republican and progressive Democratic lawmakers banded together to try to halt U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition and reassert Congress’s war power authorities.
Yet President Donald Trump has repeatedly vetoed or fended off legislation aimed at completely halting U.S. military support or at restricting presidential authorities to greenlight military actions abroad without prior congressional approval. Congress also launched investigations into the Trump administration’s expedited arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, another Gulf power engaged in the conflict against the Houthis, leading to public sparring between top Trump diplomats and lawmakers.
President-elect Joe Biden could alter U.S. policy on Yemen, bringing an end to the battles in Washington—but the conflict there still has no end in sight.
Here are five of the best Foreign Policy pieces this year on Yemen and its fallout.
by Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer, March 2
In March, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to New York to pressure U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to scale back aid to devastated civilians in Yemen, lest the foreign assistance fall into the hands of the Iran-backed rebels. The episode underscored how precarious the U.N.’s position was in Yemen, as it faced pressure from the Trump administration to crack down on Houthis as part of its broader campaign against Iran, and from other U.N. powers and humanitarian groups that desperately sought to keep vital aid routes open.
by Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, Aug. 11
Pompeo’s decision to circumvent Congress and expedite arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sparked outrage in Congress and led to an internal State Department investigation. The State Department’s watchdog eventually found that while Pompeo did not use improper channels to expedite the arms sales, he didn’t adequately take into account how it would heighten the risk of civilian casualties. To many Yemen watchers, the bureaucratic battle perfectly encapsulated all the fights in Washington over Trump’s Middle East policies, with humanitarian issues taking a back seat to arms sales and confronting Iran.
A Yemeni man receives humanitarian aid.
by Augusta Saraiva and Darcy Palder, Oct. 20
Prizes are great, but they don’t pay the bills for a cash-strapped U.N. agency. In October, the U.N.’s World Food Program (WFP) won the Nobel Peace Prize for its efforts to combat hunger worldwide. But celebrations at WFP were short-lived, as Foreign Policy reported in October, when agency officials offered dire warnings about funding shortfalls and a surge in humanitarian crises, spurred in part by the global coronavirus pandemic—nowhere more than in Yemen. The story of how the WFP earned international plaudits without money to match underscores the challenge humanitarian agencies and organizations have in dealing with the long-term recovery of Yemen as donor fatigue accelerates.
by Aaron David Miller, Nov. 6
Saudi Arabia has had a cozy four years with the Trump administration, even as every other corner of Washington soured on Riyadh after the bone-saw execution of a Washington Post journalist, continued human rights abuses at home, and the devastating war in Yemen. But that’s all likely to change under Biden, Aaron David Miller argues in Foreign Policy. Biden has called for an end to the “disastrous war” in Yemen and, reflecting the mood of many members of Congress, indicated he would reassess the U.S.-Saudi relationship, including the blank check for arms sales and the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology.
by Colum Lynch, Robbie Gramer, and Jack Detsch, Nov. 16
In November, Foreign Policy reported that the Trump administration planned to designate Yemen’s Houthi rebels as terrorists before leaving office in January as a final parting shot at the Iran-linked group. The designation has stalled after the administration faced fierce pushback from some lawmakers and humanitarian groups, which warn that it would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Whether Trump ultimately pulls the trigger remains to be seen, but the debate reflects how the administration has elevated its hard-line approach to Iran and its regional proxies above all else—and reminds other world powers that Trump might still have some surprise policy moves up his sleeve before he leaves the White House in January.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-22--An Unprecedented Presidential Transition

The outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election has been the rockiest since 2000 , when it took the Supreme Court more than a month to decide for Republican George W. Bush against Democrat Al Gore , who had won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in a squeaker .
Yet in many ways the transition has been even more tumultuous this time , with President-elect Joe Biden fighting a refusal by President Donald Trump and legions of Republicans to concede the election , while at the same trying to quell the angry divisions in his own party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t until Dec. 14 that Biden ’ s victory was formalized by the Electoral College , making Trump only the fourth elected incumbent president in a century not to win reelection .
Despite the headwinds created by Trump ’ s desperate attempts to overturn the election results in the courts by claiming fraud—ultimately finding himself rebuffed by a conservative-majority Supreme Court—Biden swiftly named his main cabinet picks .
They proved to be an eclectic bunch of veterans and newcomers who the incoming president hopes will help to unite a deeply polarized nation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presence of so many establishment types , and if Republicans end up controlling the Senate—to be determined by a Jan. 5 runoff for two remaining open seats in Georgia—Biden will find his plans for many bold initiatives on the economy and climate stymied .
Here are five Foreign Policy reads on how the new administration is likely to play out following Biden ’ s inauguration on Jan. 20 , 2021 .
1 .
Biden Has the Team Obama Always Wanted After four years of diplomacy-by-tweet , the foreign-policy establishment in particular is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the center of the action .
With the announcement of Antony Blinken as secretary of state , Jake Sullivan as national security advisor , and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations , Biden hopes his deeply experienced team will restore American power and prestige abroad .
As James Traub writes , “ The Biden team promises restoration , not transformation.
” But the author also pointed out in a Foreign Policy series on Biden ’ s likely foreign-policy choices , this doesn ’ t mean a return to the status @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden will have to find a “ sweet spot ” that also creates a more equitable global system .
In some ways , Biden may be trying to thread the needle between tradition and change a little too carefully .
His cabinet is in some ways a multicultural dream team : Though two of his top choices , Blinken and Sullivan , are white men with all the usual elite credentials , others mark historic departures .
Janet Yellen will be the first female secretary of the treasury .
Susan Rice , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is Black , and Lloyd Austin , the designee to run the Pentagon , will be the first Black American to become defense secretary .
Biden ’ s choice for U.S. trade representative , Katherine Tai , is Taiwanese American , and his nominee to head of the Office of Management and Budget , Neera Tanden , is Indian American , as is Vice President-elect Kamala Harris .
Yet some progressives worry that the mix is superficial , and that in policy terms there is too little progressive thinking , both in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3 .
Why Biden Will Lose the Left—and How That Could Help Him Biden , a career centrist , will face many challenges from the left .
But his success will depend on where these voices come from and whether they ’ re really as powerful as they appear .
He ’ ll have to face down the online left , the grassroots left , and the congressional left .
But Biden , who unlike Trump pays no attention to Twitter , will largely ignore the angry voices online , say the right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his best as a master political deal-maker to forge compromises in Congress .
And progressives may have overestimated their ability to block moderate compromises in the House .
In fact , only a handful of House members are die-hard progressives , and a fight with the left could actually help Biden politically by giving him credibility with the pragmatists on Capitol Hill if he avoids alienating his moderate base .
4 .
Biden ’ s Secretary of State Pick Bodes Return to Normalcy for Weary Diplomats The State Department has had a rougher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than almost any other agency .
Trump ’ s first secretary of state , Rex Tillerson , was repeatedly mocked by the president and reportedly fired while on the toilet .
His successor , Mike Pompeo , earned little but distrust from career diplomats and a spate of investigations by the inspector general ’ s office .
Then there was Trump ’ s impeachment , when career foreign-policy experts were pressed by Congress to reveal everything about the president ’ s documented abuses of power .
Hence the great sigh of relief that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Antony Blinken .
“ Blinken ’ s appointment will be a salve to a wounded State Department and will reassure U.S. allies , who know him well , ” one former diplomat told Foreign Policy .
5 .
Report Sheds Light on How Biden ’ s Future NSC Chief Wants to Reshape U.S. Foreign Policy Along with other senior members of the Biden team , incoming National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spent the past several years reassessing what went wrong with the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 , and he and others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S.-dominated liberal internationalism must change .
Sullivan has charted a humbler , less ambitious approach to U.S. foreign policy—one that offers a turn inward that ’ s not quite “ America first ” but is honest in assessing what went wrong in creating so much anger among the middle class , leading ultimately to the rise of Trump .
Sullivan was a co-author of a recent report called “ Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class , ” and it condemned “ the overextension that too often has defined U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” The key takeaway : a national strategy that would for once align U.S. foreign and domestic policies—something that ’ s expected to be among the Biden administration ’ s top priorities .

The outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election has been the rockiest since 2000, when it took the Supreme Court more than a month to decide for Republican George W. Bush against Democrat Al Gore, who had won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in a squeaker. Yet in many ways the transition has been even more tumultuous this time, with President-elect Joe Biden fighting a refusal by President Donald Trump and legions of Republicans to concede the election, while at the same trying to quell the angry divisions in his own party between centrists and progressives. It wasn’t until Dec. 14 that Biden’s victory was formalized by the Electoral College, making Trump only the fourth elected incumbent president in a century not to win reelection.
The outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election has been the rockiest since 2000, when it took the Supreme Court more than a month to decide for Republican George W. Bush against Democrat Al Gore, who had won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in a squeaker. Yet in many ways the transition has been even more tumultuous this time, with President-elect Joe Biden fighting a refusal by President Donald Trump and legions of Republicans to concede the election, while at the same trying to quell the angry divisions in his own party between centrists and progressives. It wasn’t until Dec. 14 that Biden’s victory was formalized by the Electoral College, making Trump only the fourth elected incumbent president in a century not to win reelection. 2020 The Year In Review logo Despite the headwinds created by Trump’s desperate attempts to overturn the election results in the courts by claiming fraud—ultimately finding himself rebuffed by a conservative-majority Supreme Court—Biden swiftly named his main cabinet picks. They proved to be an eclectic bunch of veterans and newcomers who the incoming president hopes will help to unite a deeply polarized nation. But many progressives are dismayed by the presence of so many establishment types, and if Republicans end up controlling the Senate—to be determined by a Jan. 5 runoff for two remaining open seats in Georgia—Biden will find his plans for many bold initiatives on the economy and climate stymied.
Here are five Foreign Policy reads on how the new administration is likely to play out following Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021.
by James Traub, Nov. 24
After four years of diplomacy-by-tweet, the foreign-policy establishment in particular is relieved that the professionals are back in the center of the action. With the announcement of Antony Blinken as secretary of state, Jake Sullivan as national security advisor, and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Biden hopes his deeply experienced team will restore American power and prestige abroad. As James Traub writes, “The Biden team promises restoration, not transformation.” But the author also pointed out in a Foreign Policy series on Biden’s likely foreign-policy choices, this doesn’t mean a return to the status quo ante. While reaffirming American leadership, Biden will have to find a “sweet spot” that also creates a more equitable global system.
by Michael Hirsh, Dec. 11
In some ways, Biden may be trying to thread the needle between tradition and change a little too carefully. His cabinet is in some ways a multicultural dream team: Though two of his top choices, Blinken and Sullivan, are white men with all the usual elite credentials, others mark historic departures. Janet Yellen will be the first female secretary of the treasury. Susan Rice, the pick to be domestic policy advisor, is Black, and Lloyd Austin, the designee to run the Pentagon, will be the first Black American to become defense secretary. Biden’s choice for U.S. trade representative, Katherine Tai, is Taiwanese American, and his nominee to head of the Office of Management and Budget, Neera Tanden, is Indian American, as is Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.
Yet some progressives worry that the mix is superficial, and that in policy terms there is too little progressive thinking, both in terms of domestic and foreign policy.
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden walks off stage in Wilmington, Delaware, on Nov. 16.
by Jonathan Tepperman, Dec. 11
Biden, a career centrist, will face many challenges from the left. But his success will depend on where these voices come from and whether they’re really as powerful as they appear. He’ll have to face down the online left, the grassroots left, and the congressional left. But Biden, who unlike Trump pays no attention to Twitter, will largely ignore the angry voices online, say the right things to the grassroots, and do his best as a master political deal-maker to forge compromises in Congress.
And progressives may have overestimated their ability to block moderate compromises in the House. In fact, only a handful of House members are die-hard progressives, and a fight with the left could actually help Biden politically by giving him credibility with the pragmatists on Capitol Hill if he avoids alienating his moderate base.
by Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, Nov. 23
The State Department has had a rougher time over Trump’s four years than almost any other agency. Trump’s first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, was repeatedly mocked by the president and reportedly fired while on the toilet. His successor, Mike Pompeo, earned little but distrust from career diplomats and a spate of investigations by the inspector general’s office. Then there was Trump’s impeachment, when career foreign-policy experts were pressed by Congress to reveal everything about the president’s documented abuses of power. Hence the great sigh of relief that rolled through Foggy Bottom upon the nomination of Antony Blinken. “Blinken’s appointment will be a salve to a wounded State Department and will reassure U.S. allies, who know him well,” one former diplomat told Foreign Policy.
by Edward Alden, Dec. 7
Along with other senior members of the Biden team, incoming National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spent the past several years reassessing what went wrong with the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, and he and others have concluded that the old approach to U.S.-dominated liberal internationalism must change. Sullivan has charted a humbler, less ambitious approach to U.S. foreign policy—one that offers a turn inward that’s not quite “America first” but is honest in assessing what went wrong in creating so much anger among the middle class, leading ultimately to the rise of Trump. Sullivan was a co-author of a recent report called “Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class,” and it condemned “the overextension that too often has defined U.S. foreign policy in the post-Cold War era.” The key takeaway: a national strategy that would for once align U.S. foreign and domestic policies—something that’s expected to be among the Biden administration’s top priorities.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-23--WHO Confronts Mutating COVID-19 Threat

WHO Confronts Mutating COVID-19 Threat

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : the WHO meets to discuss the new coronavirus variant , U.S. President Donald Trump pardons Blackwater contractors responsible for Iraq massacre , and Brexit talks continue .
A note for our readers : Morning Brief is currently on a holiday schedule .
We will publish on Dec. 29 and Dec. 30 and resume normal service in 2021 .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The World Health Organization meets today to discuss ways to confront the new coronavirus variant , first identified in the United Kingdom .
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , known as B.1.1.7 , a WHO spokesperson said the meeting would help with information-sharing between countries .
The emergence of the coronavirus variant has already caused widespread disruption to European supply chains and led more than 40 countries to impose temporary bans on travel to and from the United Kingdom .
Truck drivers left stranded on both sides of the U.K.-French border have been offered a lifeline , as the British and French governments agreed to allow transit to continue as long as drivers tested negative for the virus .
British transport @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would take “ two or three days for things to be cleared.
” A year to forget .
The border jams and coronavirus uncertainty cap a disastrous year for the British government , and as Harriet Williamson writes in Foreign Policy things are unlikely to improve quickly .
“ A ‘ great year for Britain , ’ in Johnson ’ s cocky words in January , has turned into an unprecedented disaster—and Johnson himself is left staring at the gravestone of what ’ s likely to be a short-lived premiership , ” Williamson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin , the head of the company that partnered with Pfizer for the highly effective mRNA-based vaccine , is optimistic his company ’ s invention will withstand the problems of a new mutation .
Sahin cautioned that it ’ s not yet known whether the vaccine will still work as effectively against the new variant , “ but scientifically , it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variant.
” Sahin added that more would be known in two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The pardons are similar to another issued to Eddie Gallagher , a former U.S. marine convicted of posing with the corpse of a teenage Islamic State fighter after he had killed him with a hunting knife ( he was acquitted of murder at his trial ) .
Rep. Ilhan Omar , a Democratic member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee , spoke out against the move .
“ Pardoning war criminals who murdered innocents—including children—goes directly against every value we claim to hold as Americans and gives a green light to war criminals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Brexit talks .
As Brexit talks continue today , AFP reports that EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is ready to continue discussions into 2021 , raising questions over whether the United Kingdom would agree to such an extension .
The issue of fishing rights remains a sticking point .
Bloomberg reports that the British government is willing to come down from a demand that Europe reduces its fish catch in British waters by 60 percent by saying it would accept a one-third reduction .
European negotiators have said a 25 percent reduction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with .
As negotiations drag on , FP columnist Edward Alden makes the case for why the world should be rooting for the European Union .
Israel heads for new elections .
Israel will hold its fourth election in two years on March 23 , as the short-lived coalition between Likud and Blue and White collapsed after the government failed to pass a budget .
Benjamin Netanyahu will remain as prime minister until the elections , which take place after his corruption trial begins in February .
Armenia protests .
Thousands of protesters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s capital , Yerevan , calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan over a November cease-fire deal with Azerbaijan that ceded territory previously in ethnic Armenian hands .
Supporters of the country ’ s opposition have set up tents in Yerevan ’ s main square , threatening to remain there until Pashinyan steps down .
Russia in Colombia .
Colombia appears to have expelled two Russian diplomats as local news reports say the men were accused of espionage against the energy and mineral industries in the country .
Juan Francisco Espinosa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ migration agency announced that the men had left on Dec. 8 .
“ The reasons which motivated the exit are unconnected to the migration agency and are due to state decisions which I prefer not to reference , ” Espinosa said .
Putin ’ s immunity .
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill that would grant former presidents ( and their families ) a lifetime of immunity from prosecution and police questioning , updating a law that previously only granted immunity from crimes committed while in office .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ constitutional changes approved by voters earlier this year that allowed for Putin to continue in office as far as 2036 .
Immunity can only be taken away from the president if Russia ’ s supreme and constitutional courts agree with a charge of treason or other high crimes .
Antarctica falls to COVID-19 .
36 people stationed at the Chilean Base General Bernardo O ’ Higgins Riquelme in Antarctica have tested positive for COVID-19 , a development that means the coronavirus has now been found on every continent .
It is not yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although local media in Chile say contact tracing is underway .
France is to accelerate the citizenship applications of nearly 700 foreigners who worked on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic in the country .
Didier Leschi , the director of the French Office of Immigration and Integration , said the move was part of “ a long tradition that can be traced back to the French Revolution , which is to grant citizenship to the benefactors of the country.
” Although health care workers are part of the fast-tracked group , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers , housekeepers , and cashiers who worked through the pandemic , according to Marlène Schiappa , France ’ s junior minister for citizenship .
Under French law , residents are permitted to hold dual citizenship and under European law , the successful applicants will automatically be allowed to live and work anywhere within the European Union .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The World Health Organization meets to discuss the new coronavirus variant, U.S. President Donald Trump pardons Blackwater contractors responsible for Iraq massacre, and Brexit talks continue.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The World Health Organization meets to discuss the new coronavirus variant, U.S. President Donald Trump pardons Blackwater contractors responsible for Iraq massacre, and Brexit talks continue.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
WHO Meets Today to Discuss COVID-19 Variant
The World Health Organization meets today to discuss ways to confront the new coronavirus variant, first identified in the United Kingdom.
With much still unknown about the virus mutation, known as B.1.1.7, a WHO spokesperson said the meeting would help with information-sharing between countries.
The emergence of the coronavirus variant has already caused widespread disruption to European supply chains and led more than 40 countries to impose temporary bans on travel to and from the United Kingdom.
Truck drivers left stranded on both sides of the U.K.-French border have been offered a lifeline, as the British and French governments agreed to allow transit to continue as long as drivers tested negative for the virus. British transport minister Grant Shapps warned that the backlog would take “two or three days for things to be cleared.”
A year to forget. The border jams and coronavirus uncertainty cap a disastrous year for the British government, and as Harriet Williamson writes in Foreign Policy things are unlikely to improve quickly. “A ‘great year for Britain,’ in Johnson’s cocky words in January, has turned into an unprecedented disaster—and Johnson himself is left staring at the gravestone of what’s likely to be a short-lived premiership,” Williamson writes.
The variant and the vaccine. BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin, the head of the company that partnered with Pfizer for the highly effective mRNA-based vaccine, is optimistic his company’s invention will withstand the problems of a new mutation. Sahin cautioned that it’s not yet known whether the vaccine will still work as effectively against the new variant, “but scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variant.” Sahin added that more would be known in two weeks once preliminary research has concluded.
What We’re Following Today Trump pardons convicted war criminals. U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a presidential pardon to four Blackwater security contractors convicted of killing 14 Iraqi civilians, including two children, at a traffic intersection in Baghdad in 2007. A court in 2014 found that the four men had opened fire indiscriminately with sniper rifles, grenade launchers, and machine guns, sentencing three to 30 year sentences and one to life in prison.
The pardons are similar to another issued to Eddie Gallagher, a former U.S. Navy Seal convicted of posing with the corpse of a teenage Islamic State fighter after he had killed him with a hunting knife (he was acquitted of murder at his trial).
Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Democratic member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, spoke out against the move. “Pardoning war criminals who murdered innocents—including children—goes directly against every value we claim to hold as Americans and gives a green light to war criminals and human rights abusers around the world.”
Brexit talks. As Brexit talks continue today, AFP reports that EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is ready to continue discussions into 2021, raising questions over whether the United Kingdom would agree to such an extension.
The issue of fishing rights remains a sticking point. Bloomberg reports that the British government is willing to come down from a demand that Europe reduces its fish catch in British waters by 60 percent by saying it would accept a one-third reduction. European negotiators have said a 25 percent reduction was the highest level they were comfortable with.
As negotiations drag on, FP columnist Edward Alden makes the case for why the world should be rooting for the European Union.
Israel heads for new elections. Israel will hold its fourth election in two years on March 23, as the short-lived coalition between Likud and Blue and White collapsed after the government failed to pass a budget. Benjamin Netanyahu will remain as prime minister until the elections, which take place after his corruption trial begins in February.
Armenia protests. Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan over a November cease-fire deal with Azerbaijan that ceded territory previously in ethnic Armenian hands. Supporters of the country’s opposition have set up tents in Yerevan’s main square, threatening to remain there until Pashinyan steps down.
Keep an Eye On
Russia in Colombia. Colombia appears to have expelled two Russian diplomats as local news reports say the men were accused of espionage against the energy and mineral industries in the country.
Juan Francisco Espinosa, the head of Colombia’s migration agency announced that the men had left on Dec. 8. “The reasons which motivated the exit are unconnected to the migration agency and are due to state decisions which I prefer not to reference,” Espinosa said.
Putin’s immunity. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill that would grant former presidents (and their families) a lifetime of immunity from prosecution and police questioning, updating a law that previously only granted immunity from crimes committed while in office.
The law was part of a package of constitutional changes approved by voters earlier this year that allowed for Putin to continue in office as far as 2036. Immunity can only be taken away from the president if Russia’s supreme and constitutional courts agree with a charge of treason or other high crimes.
Antarctica falls to COVID-19. 36 people stationed at the Chilean Base General Bernardo O’Higgins Riquelme in Antarctica have tested positive for COVID-19, a development that means the coronavirus has now been found on every continent. It is not yet known how the virus was contracted, although local media in Chile say contact tracing is underway.
Odds and Ends
France is to accelerate the citizenship applications of nearly 700 foreigners who worked on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic in the country. Didier Leschi, the director of the French Office of Immigration and Integration, said the move was part of “a long tradition that can be traced back to the French Revolution, which is to grant citizenship to the benefactors of the country.”
Although health care workers are part of the fast-tracked group, citizenship will also be extended to sanitation workers, housekeepers, and cashiers who worked through the pandemic, according to Marlène Schiappa, France’s junior minister for citizenship. Under French law, residents are permitted to hold dual citizenship and under European law, the successful applicants will automatically be allowed to live and work anywhere within the European Union.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.
Correction, Dec. 23, 2020: A previous version of this newsletter described Eddie Gallagher as a former U.S. Marine. Gallagher is a former U.S. Navy Seal.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-23--Iran: Maximum Pressure, Minimum Gain

Iran: Maximum Pressure, Minimum Gain

The year 2020 was marked by the intensification of the Trump administration ’ s maximum pressure campaign against Iran , which included U.S. sanctions , travel restrictions on senior Iranian diplomats at the United Nations , and the assassination of Tehran ’ s popular top military strategist , Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani .
The campaign—which followed U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal—has placed increasing stress on Iran ’ s economy , but it has done little to prevent Iran from advancing its ability to develop its nuclear program .
Washington ’ s ongoing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meanwhile , has left the United States diplomatically isolated at the United Nations .
But whatever goodwill Iran may have obtained has been squandered by its repressive conduct at home , where it executed the dissident journalist Ruhollah Zam and sentenced a British Iranian academic , Kameel Ahmady , to nine years in prison on charges of subversion , which included his research on child marriage and female genital mutilation .
Here are Foreign Policy ’ s top five reads of the year on Iran , highlighting contrasting views on the effectiveness of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have underscored the Trump administration ’ s growing diplomatic isolation than its effort to kill off the landmark nuclear deal , which placed constraints on Iran ’ s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief .
In June , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the United Nations to press the U.N. Security Council to maintain an arms embargo on Tehran that would later expire in October .
Instead , America ’ s top diplomat received a scolding from friends and foes alike in the 15-nation council , which roundly criticized Washington for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a clear plan to limit Tehran ’ s nuclear activities .
In the end , the world largely shrugged off Washington ’ s demands to extend the arms embargo and dismissed a U.S. maneuver aimed at reimposing a raft of U.N. sanctions on Iran .
2 .
Israel Is the Wrench in Biden ’ s Iran Policy Shortly after President-elect Joe Biden ’ s victory over Trump , Iran ’ s top nuclear scientist , Mohsen Fakhrizadeh , was assassinated outside Tehran in an operation allegedly conceived by Israel ’ s Mossad intelligence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zilber , has been viewed by Israeli analysts as a part of an effort by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to undercut Biden ’ s stated intention to reopen a diplomatic channel to Tehran and revive the moribund 2015 deal .
Zilber ’ s story highlights the obstacles Biden will have to overcome to restart nuclear talks .
“ There can be no going back to the previous nuclear agreement , ” Netanyahu said last month .
“ We must stick to an uncompromising policy of ensuring that Iran will not develop nuclear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Policies Have Convinced Iran to Build a More Advanced Nuclear Program Before Negotiating In the two and half years since Trump withdrew from the deal , Tehran has gradually stepped up its enrichment of uranium , shrinking the breakout time required if it chose to build a bomb .
While Iran ’ s leaders may be eager to restart nuclear negotiations with the Biden administration , the cost of sealing a nuclear deal may be higher , writes Vali Nasr , a former State Department official during the Obama administration and professor at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Studies .
“ Despite greater economic pressure , Trump has only encouraged Iran to redouble its investment in its nuclear program , ” Nasr writes .
If talks resume , Iran wants to ensure it ’ s got more leverage than last time .
4 .
Maximum Pressure May Bring Iran Back to the Table After All Experts on both sides of the debate over the effectiveness of the Trump administration ’ s maximum pressure campaign agree on one thing : U.S. sanctions have inflicted intense pain on the Iranian economy , imposing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been struggling at the same time to fend off the coronavirus pandemic .
And that might be enough to drive Iran back to the negotiating table , writes Henry Rome , a senior Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group .
“ The combined effect of U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic has left the Iranian economy in a highly vulnerable position .
And things are likely to get worse , ” Rome wrote back in August .
“ Although the economy is not the only factor in play , the deteriorating conditions certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West in the medium term.
” 5.Iran Is Becoming Immune to U.S. Pressure In early June , Iran released detained U.S. Navy veteran Michael White in a swap for an Iranian American doctor , feeding hopes in the White House that Iran might be open to negotiating a new nuclear deal .
But Sina Toossi , a senior researcher for the National Iranian American Council , argues that Trump ’ s maximum pressure campaign has only strengthened the hands of regime hard-liners who have long argued that the United States can not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s bellicose rhetoric and actions have not made Iran more inclined to do a deal , but they have undermined any Iranian officials who supported negotiations with the United States , ” she wrote .
While Iran had previously suggested that it might resume talks if Washington eases Trump ’ s sanctions , Tehran has now signaled to the Biden administration that there will be no new negotiations until the United States reenters the nuclear deal .

The year 2020 was marked by the intensification of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which included U.S. sanctions, travel restrictions on senior Iranian diplomats at the United Nations, and the assassination of Tehran’s popular top military strategist, Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani. The campaign—which followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal—has placed increasing stress on Iran’s economy, but it has done little to prevent Iran from advancing its ability to develop its nuclear program. Washington’s ongoing efforts to torpedo the nuclear pact, meanwhile, has left the United States diplomatically isolated at the United Nations.
The year 2020 was marked by the intensification of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which included U.S. sanctions, travel restrictions on senior Iranian diplomats at the United Nations, and the assassination of Tehran’s popular top military strategist, Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani. The campaign—which followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal—has placed increasing stress on Iran’s economy, but it has done little to prevent Iran from advancing its ability to develop its nuclear program. Washington’s ongoing efforts to torpedo the nuclear pact, meanwhile, has left the United States diplomatically isolated at the United Nations. 2020 The Year In Review logo
But whatever goodwill Iran may have obtained has been squandered by its repressive conduct at home, where it executed the dissident journalist Ruhollah Zam and sentenced a British Iranian academic, Kameel Ahmady, to nine years in prison on charges of subversion, which included his research on child marriage and female genital mutilation.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top five reads of the year on Iran, highlighting contrasting views on the effectiveness of the maximum pressure campaign.
by Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer, June 30
Few issues have underscored the Trump administration’s growing diplomatic isolation than its effort to kill off the landmark nuclear deal, which placed constraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. In June, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the United Nations to press the U.N. Security Council to maintain an arms embargo on Tehran that would later expire in October. Instead, America’s top diplomat received a scolding from friends and foes alike in the 15-nation council, which roundly criticized Washington for withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal without a clear plan to limit Tehran’s nuclear activities. In the end, the world largely shrugged off Washington’s demands to extend the arms embargo and dismissed a U.S. maneuver aimed at reimposing a raft of U.N. sanctions on Iran.
by Neri Zilber, Nov. 30
Shortly after President-elect Joe Biden’s victory over Trump, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated outside Tehran in an operation allegedly conceived by Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency. The killing, writes Neri Zilber, has been viewed by Israeli analysts as a part of an effort by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to undercut Biden’s stated intention to reopen a diplomatic channel to Tehran and revive the moribund 2015 deal. Zilber’s story highlights the obstacles Biden will have to overcome to restart nuclear talks. “There can be no going back to the previous nuclear agreement,” Netanyahu said last month. “We must stick to an uncompromising policy of ensuring that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.”
An Iranian flag near Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, during an official ceremony to kick-start work on a second reactor at the facility on Nov. 10, 2019.
by Vali Nasr, Sept. 21
In the two and half years since Trump withdrew from the deal, Tehran has gradually stepped up its enrichment of uranium, shrinking the breakout time required if it chose to build a bomb. While Iran’s leaders may be eager to restart nuclear negotiations with the Biden administration, the cost of sealing a nuclear deal may be higher, writes Vali Nasr, a former State Department official during the Obama administration and professor at John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “Despite greater economic pressure, Trump has only encouraged Iran to redouble its investment in its nuclear program,” Nasr writes. If talks resume, Iran wants to ensure it’s got more leverage than last time.
by Henry Rome, Aug. 13
Experts on both sides of the debate over the effectiveness of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign agree on one thing: U.S. sanctions have inflicted intense pain on the Iranian economy, imposing extreme stress on a country that has been struggling at the same time to fend off the coronavirus pandemic. And that might be enough to drive Iran back to the negotiating table, writes Henry Rome, a senior Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group. “The combined effect of U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic has left the Iranian economy in a highly vulnerable position. And things are likely to get worse,” Rome wrote back in August. “Although the economy is not the only factor in play, the deteriorating conditions certainly raise the odds of talks with the West in the medium term.”
by Sina Toossi, July 2
In early June, Iran released detained U.S. Navy veteran Michael White in a swap for an Iranian American doctor, feeding hopes in the White House that Iran might be open to negotiating a new nuclear deal. But Sina Toossi, a senior researcher for the National Iranian American Council, argues that Trump’s maximum pressure campaign has only strengthened the hands of regime hard-liners who have long argued that the United States cannot be trusted to keep its word. “Trump’s bellicose rhetoric and actions have not made Iran more inclined to do a deal, but they have undermined any Iranian officials who supported negotiations with the United States,” she wrote. While Iran had previously suggested that it might resume talks if Washington eases Trump’s sanctions, Tehran has now signaled to the Biden administration that there will be no new negotiations until the United States reenters the nuclear deal.