foreignpolicy--2020-06-21--In Honduras, a Journalist Explores an Activist’s Murder

In March 2016 , gunmen stormed into the home of Honduran environmental activist Berta Cáceres and murdered her in her bedroom .
The killing came after years of threats against Cáceres and her powerful grassroots activism .
Just a year earlier , she had been awarded the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize for leading a successful campaign against the construction of four large dams in Indigenous Lenca territory—a project involving the Chinese company Sinohydro and the International Finance Corp. , in partnership with a Honduran company .
Honduras remains one of the most dangerous countries in the world for environmental activism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seven men were convicted of Cáceres ’ s murder in November 2018 .
The hitmen included army officers , and two had received military training in the United States .
Nina Lakhani , now the environmental justice correspondent for the Guardian US , covered Cáceres ’ s grassroots movement for years while based in the region and was the only foreign journalist present at the trial .
Lakhani puts Cáceres ’ s life and death at the center of her new book , Who Killed Berta Cáceres ?
Dams , Death Squads , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the Planet .
She spoke with Foreign Policy about Cáceres ’ s activist education , the experience of covering her killers ’ trial as a foreign reporter , and questions that remain about the case .
This interview has been edited for length and clarity .
Foreign Policy : At what point during your reporting on Berta Cáceres did you realize this could be a book ?
Nina Lakhani : I guess I was spending another Friday night fact-checking a story about Berta .
It was a story that we were just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a [ military ] hit list , I think .
I never wanted to write a book , but I thought , “ Maybe I should .
It ’ s one of those stories—someone else is going to come along and do it.
” As I wrote those stories , there was such a reaction .
I started getting lots of harassment ; there were lots of attempts to discredit me .
The heat sort of turned up .
As a journalist , that instantly makes you think , “ There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t want any of this information to get out.
” That ’ s really where the seed was planted .
It started out as an idea of an investigation into her death , but I think quite quickly I realized that to understand why she was killed , you had to understand who she was and where she came from and the period that she grew up in and became a political adult in .
To understand her life and death , you have to understand the context : the geopolitical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the military context , the social context , all of those things .
Neither her life nor her death happened in a vacuum .
I tried to use her story as an arc to try to tell this wider story of Honduras .
There aren ’ t really very many books written about Honduras in English .
It ’ s a difficult place to get a grip on .
It ’ s complicated , it ’ s dangerous .
It ’ s not the complete story of Honduras by any means , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about what ’ s happening today .
FP : When did you first start reporting in Honduras ?
NL : I went for the elections in November 2013 .
The idea was to go and cover these elections , which were really the first proper elections since the 2009 coup .
I stayed for two weeks and that ’ s when I met Berta and interviewed her the one and only time .
And then I went and did some stuff in the Aguán [ River Valley ] , where at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conflict with these palm barons .
I remember thinking , I ’ d never really been scared before as a reporter .
It ’ s just militarized to the hilt .
I ’ d been told , don ’ t stay in the same hotel more than one night because there are spies for the military and police everywhere .
After three nights , we ’ d run out of places to stay .
FP : How do you think the environment in which Cáceres grew up shaped her activism ?
NL : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grew up as the proxy Cold War was kicking off in Latin America .
The Guatemalan Civil War was up and running , and there were social uprisings in Guatemala and in neighboring El Salvador and Nicaragua .
Her mom , her maternal grandmother , and her maternal grandfather were all involved in social struggles in Honduras .
A lot of activists , guerilla fighters , and thinkers from the region would come to the family home .
It became a real hot point for people to rest , to debate , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that environment , hearing people talk about local things but in a global context .
I think that ’ s something that really defined her right to the end , what made her really extraordinary .
On a more personal level , her mother was a nurse and a midwife .
She ’ d accompany her mom to rural outposts to help poor women—mainly Indigenous Lenca women—give birth .
These were villages that had been utterly abandoned by the state .
There were no basic services : no roads , no light , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , no education .
I think that experience of just seeing the massive inequalities , and especially how the impact on women was especially harsh , was very important for her .
And then she went at a very young age to join the war effort in El Salvador—she and her then-partner , who later co-founded their organization [ the Council of Popular and Indigenous Organizations of Honduras ] .
She wasn ’ t a fighter , but she was there on and off for more than a year .
It was clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arms not because of political ideology but because they were hungry , they were desperate .
They were fighting against really deep-seated inequalities .
What they wanted to do when they got back to Honduras was [ something that didn ’ t involve arms ] .
So they came back and formed their organization .
FP : After reporting on this for years , was there anything that surprised you once you started digging into your research for the book ?
NL : This is true for all of my reporting in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Honduras and the region—including the United States—political power is the second layer of power .
It is the economic elites that control everything .
In the case of Honduras , they control the banks , the media , retail , everything .
And they control the courts , the justice system , the politicians—because they are the ones that give them good or bad press and put money into their campaigns or not .
It ’ s so blatant in Honduras that the vast majority of laws have been written to favor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said in many countries , but how blatant it was [ surprised me ] .
As did the really deep-seated impunity and corruption .
And as a woman reporting somewhere like Honduras , the everyday misogyny , machismo , just walking down the street , that ’ s something that you have to think about .
Honduras isn ’ t unique in this , but it is particularly difficult .
FP : How do you think that culture of machismo shaped what happened to Berta Cáceres—not only her murder but also her treatment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think that was a key part of the context in which she lived and in which she died : the machismo and the racism .
You see in the phone evidence that was discovered in the murder investigation just the casual racism used to describe Indigenous people all the time .
The idea for this economically powerful group that a woman , and an Indigenous woman , could interrupt their plan and project—never mind the allegations of corruption—was just unacceptable .
The fact that they chose to kill her in her home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pajamas—it was a real , “ We can do whatever we want to you .
We are more powerful , and we can dominate you.
” The state ’ s case should have been framed in the terms of a gender-based and a racist killing , but it wasn ’ t .
FP : What was the experience of attending the trial like as a foreign journalist ?
NL : I attended the trial every day , and I worked closely with people involved in the trial .
In Latin America , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largely on the Spanish legal system .
There are no juries .
You can have a private prosecution occurring at the same time as the state prosecution .
Her family were recognized and identified as victims and were mounting a case that was going to be very different to the state ’ s case .
At the very last minute , they were expelled from proceedings so that didn ’ t happen .
It was really difficult .
The trial had been due to start in September 2018 and then was suspended on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s lawyers requested that the three judges be recused .
As I was writing up that story , there was a press release shared on social networks from a false group that we believe strongly to have links to military intelligence claiming that I was a violent insurgent and linked to organize crime , that I wasn ’ t a journalist , and declaring me a persona non grata .
And then another one was released maybe 10 days later calling me a terrorist .
I stayed in Honduras because we were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be restarted .
That period itself was incredibly difficult because the risk to me had gone up massively .
Trials without juries are not particularly interesting , because the prosecutors don ’ t have to make a compelling case .
It ’ s very document-based .
The state ’ s case was based on the phone data .
The family ’ s lawyers had been expelled .
[ The family ] had boycotted the trial .
So sometimes it was about six of us in what was the most emblematic trial in Honduras @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the only foreign journalist that covered it .
I had interviewed seven of the eight accused in jail .
They knew who I was .
The attorney general ’ s office wouldn ’ t speak to me ; the spokesman accused me of being involved with groups with a dark agenda .
It was hostile .
It was uncomfortable .
And my security situation meant that I was going between the court and where I was staying , trying to change my route of transport every day .
It was an intense experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in place to harass and intimidate .
FP : You mention several times in the book different parts of Berta Cáceres ’ s legacy .
Four years on , what would you say her legacy is in Honduras and globally ?
NL : There are definitely layers like that .
I think her work to revendicate and recognize the Lenca people and the Indigenous peoples of Honduras , who until the mid-1990s were forgotten .
I think the rights that she fought for and instilling again a sense of pride in her people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for generations .
We know Berta because she won the Goldman Prize and she was an international face .
But she didn ’ t make decisions from the top .
Wherever she went , she took people from her community and her group with her .
It wasn ’ t about her going off to do this conference or that conference .
All the knowledge that she absorbed , she would share it all and help everybody understand what was happening in their corner of the world in a regional and global context @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have the capacity to do that .
Even when she won the Goldman Prize , she didn ’ t accept it straight away .
No one had ever taken so long to accept it as she did because she consulted everybody .
She wanted a consensus that the community felt that it would be something that would benefit the cause and the movement .
This ability to really connect the dots , I think that sort of leadership is something that people did learn from and will continue to learn from .
FP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ book , that she was a unique leader .
NL : Her murder wasn ’ t exceptional , because many leaders were killed in Honduras before Berta and many have been killed since .
But her life was extraordinary , and they killed her because of how extraordinary she was .
Her ability to unite , her fierceness , her intelligence—she never fought a local battle without putting it into a bigger context .
And that was dangerous .
When you have all of these international interests in extractive projects—which is what Indigenous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to really understand that as an expression of the neoliberal model , I think that made her dangerous .
She was targeted and she was killed because of how extraordinary she was .
FP : How does that leave you feeling about the future of environmental activism in Honduras and in the region ?
NL : The title of my book , Who Killed Berta Cáceres ?
—it ’ s a question with many unanswered elements to it .
I think the struggle for justice is going to be long and require political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Honduras .
The social movement has regrouped and is strengthening again .
Her children and her community have reorganized .
They ’ re not going to let this go , and we shouldn ’ t let it go .
By expelling the family ’ s prosecution , there was a decision made—I don ’ t know at what level—to only ever go so far .
There is no one that can say hand on heart , looking at the evidence , that the prosecution followed the evidence fully .
There are many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has to be thought about as the grand finale of several years of criminal and repressive actions against her and her community .
There are many unanswered questions still .
Nina Lakhani , Who Killed Berta Cáceres ?
Dams , Death Squads , and an Indigenous Defender ’ s Battle for the Planet , Verso , 320 pp.
, $ 27 , June 2020 https : //www.versobooks.com/books/3180-who-killed-berta-caceres

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foreignpolicy--2020-06-22--China Suspends U.S. Poultry Imports After Coronavirus Outbreak at Tyson Plant

China Suspends U.S. Poultry Imports After Coronavirus Outbreak at Tyson Plant Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : China suspends some U.S. poultry imports after an outbreak at a Tyson Foods processing plant , U.S. and Russian envoys discuss nuclear arms control in Vienna , record high temperatures in the Arctic circle , and the world this week .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
China has temporarily suspended the import of poultry products from an Arkansas-based Tyson Foods processing plant after reports of a mass coronavirus outbreak at the company ’ s processing facilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ processor in the world with chicken sales of $ 13.1 billion ( out of total sales of $ 42.4 billion ) in 2019 .
The move comes after a Friday announcement from Tyson of widespread infections in their workforce .
It announced that 13 percent , or 481 , of its workers in northwest Arkansas had tested positive for the coronavirus .
Of that 13 percent , the vast majority ( 95 percent ) were asymptomatic , the company said .
On Sunday , Tyson confirmed the outbreak was at its Springdale plant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is located .
The World Health Organization says there is no evidence that a person can contract the coronavirus from food or food packaging , but Chinese authorities—chastened by a recent outbreak at a Beijing food market—seem to be taking a hard line .
It ’ s a change from last Friday , when a Chinese customs official said the country would not enact import restrictions because of the low risk of food-borne coronavirus infections .
Define “ temporary.
” Although it ’ s not yet known how much poultry has been blocked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could still have long term economic effects : A similar ban was put in place on all U.S. poultry during the 2015 avian flu outbreak .
That ban wasn ’ t lifted until November of last year .
Germany also shut out .
China has not just singled out U.S. food imports .
On June 18 , China suspended imports from the German pork processor Tonnies after it emerged that 1,300 of its slaughterhouse workers had contracted the coronavirus in recent weeks .
The single outbreak led to marked rise in Germany ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how quickly the virus is spreading within the population .
Could this dissolve the U.S.-China Phase One trade deal ?
China-based experts have floated the possibility that any more problems with U.S. food exporters could lead to a dissolution of the trade deal on natural disaster grounds—and an end to $ 36.5 billion in agricultural products that China must buy from the United States as part of the agreement .
“ If there ’ s a huge outbreak of the coronavirus among U.S. agricultural companies , there might be a need to renegotiate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a senior fellow at Sinosteel Economic Research Institute , told the Global Times , a Chinese state newspaper .
As FP ’ s Jason Bordoff wrote on May 22 , the phase one deal was already unlikely to live up to expectations—China is supposed to purchase $ 19 billion worth of U.S. energy products this year , a number they are unlikely to reach as coronavirus pressures have slowed energy exports .
EU-China annual summit .
Representatives from the European Union and China meet today for an annual summit between the two powers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese delegation , and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will lead the European side along with European Council President Charles Michel .
An EU press release says the meeting will discuss “ cooperation on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic and on the recovery ” as well as EU-China bilateral relations , including “ the economy and trade , connectivity , sustainable development and climate change , security and defense.
” U.K. police treat stabbing suspect as terrorism case .
Three people were killed in a public park in Reading , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a knife-wielding attacker .
British police have arrested the alleged perpetrator Khairi Saadallah—a 25-year-old Libyan man—under the country ’ s terrorism act .
Saadallah had fled the civil war in Libya and had been granted asylum in the United Kingdom .
In the wake of the stabbings , British Prime Minister Boris Johnson vowed to make changes to the British legal system to prevent further attacks .
Kiribati votes on its future .
The Pacific island nation of Kiribati votes today in a presidential election with geopolitical implications .
On June 19 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the battle between Kiribati President Taneti Maamau and challenger Banuera Berina has become a referendum on Chinese influence on the island .
Kiribati had been one of the few countries that recognized Taiwan ’ s sovereign status until the incumbent Maamau switched the country ’ s support to China in 2019 .
Record high summer temperatures in Arctic circle .
The town of Verkhoyansk in northeast Siberia has likely logged the highest temperature ever recorded within the Arctic circle when it reached 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit ( 38º Celsius ) on June 20 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is usually around 68 degrees ( 20º Celsius ) .
The temperature has yet to be confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization , which verifies extreme temperature records .
Melting permafrost from unseasonably high temperatures has already led to disaster in Russia after it contributed to the collapse of a fuel tank in the Siberian city of Norilsk at the beginning of June .
WHO records highest daily coronavirus case count .
The World Health Organization ( WHO ) recorded the highest daily spike in new coronavirus cases globally on Sunday , beating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Overall 183,020 new cases were recorded , with roughly half of all global cases coming from Brazil ( 54,771 ) and the United States ( 36,617 ) .
The WHO attributed the dramatic jump in Brazil ’ s daily cases to a lag in testing data coming from three states .
According to a model by researchers at the University of Washington , Brazil ’ s number of total cases could surpass that of the United States as soon as August 1 .
On Tuesday , June 23 , voters in Malawi will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the country ’ s 2019 presidential election .
Malawi ’ s constitutional court overturned last year ’ s election victory of incumbent Peter Mutharika , citing irregularities in the vote .
Also on Tuesday , Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar , Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi , and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet via videoconference to discuss Indian-Chinese border tensions .
The meeting was scheduled following last week ’ s clashes in the Galwan valley between Indian and Chinese troops .
On Wednesday , June 24 , U.S. President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House .
The meeting is a welcome boost for Duda ahead of the Polish presidential election scheduled for this Sunday , June 28 .
A Pew Research Center poll published in January 2020 showed Poland gave Trump a higher approval rating than any other European country surveyed .
Also on Wednesday , Russia will host its Victory Day parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II .
Russia had previously moved the date from May 9 , citing coronavirus fears .
The following day , June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on changes to Russia ’ s constitution , including measures that could allow President Vladimir Putin to continue past his current term limits .
The voting period ends on July 1 .
On Sunday , Putin said he would be open to running for another term if voters approve the changes .
The coronavirus has introduced a whole new set of variables in professional sports ; social distancing , empty stadiums , and the risk of infection all change the way games are played .
One Russian soccer team in the country ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hard way when it was forced to field a youth team after all of its professional players were sidelined by a coronavirus outbreak .
FC Rostov , which sits in fourth place in the Russian premier league , ended up losing 10-1 to PFC Sochi , ranked 6 places below them .
Rostov had initially led 1-0 before the dramatic reversal .
The club tried to put a positive spin on things in the wake of defeat , pointing to their 17-year-old goalkeeper ’ s 15 saves over the course of the match—a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: China suspends some U.S. poultry imports after an outbreak at a Tyson Foods processing plant, U.S. and Russian envoys discuss nuclear arms control in Vienna, record high temperatures in the Arctic circle, and the world this week .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: China suspends some U.S. poultry imports after an outbreak at a Tyson Foods processing plant, U.S. and Russian envoys discuss nuclear arms control in Vienna, record high temperatures in the Arctic circle, and the world this week.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
China Knocks Out Tyson Imports After Coronavirus Outbreak
China has temporarily suspended the import of poultry products from an Arkansas-based Tyson Foods processing plant after reports of a mass coronavirus outbreak at the company’s processing facilities.
Tyson is the second largest chicken processor in the world with chicken sales of $13.1 billion (out of total sales of $42.4 billion) in 2019.
The move comes after a Friday announcement from Tyson of widespread infections in their workforce. It announced that 13 percent, or 481, of its workers in northwest Arkansas had tested positive for the coronavirus. Of that 13 percent, the vast majority (95 percent) were asymptomatic, the company said. On Sunday, Tyson confirmed the outbreak was at its Springdale plant, where the company’s headquarters is located.
The World Health Organization says there is no evidence that a person can contract the coronavirus from food or food packaging, but Chinese authorities—chastened by a recent outbreak at a Beijing food market—seem to be taking a hard line. It’s a change from last Friday, when a Chinese customs official said the country would not enact import restrictions because of the low risk of food-borne coronavirus infections.
Define “temporary.” Although it’s not yet known how much poultry has been blocked from entering China this time, it could still have long term economic effects: A similar ban was put in place on all U.S. poultry during the 2015 avian flu outbreak. That ban wasn’t lifted until November of last year.
Germany also shut out. China has not just singled out U.S. food imports. On June 18, China suspended imports from the German pork processor Tonnies after it emerged that 1,300 of its slaughterhouse workers had contracted the coronavirus in recent weeks. The single outbreak led to marked rise in Germany’s R number, a measure of how quickly the virus is spreading within the population.
Could this dissolve the U.S.-China Phase One trade deal? China-based experts have floated the possibility that any more problems with U.S. food exporters could lead to a dissolution of the trade deal on natural disaster grounds—and an end to $36.5 billion in agricultural products that China must buy from the United States as part of the agreement. “If there’s a huge outbreak of the coronavirus among U.S. agricultural companies, there might be a need to renegotiate the deal,” Hu Qimu, a senior fellow at Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, told the Global Times, a Chinese state newspaper.
As FP’s Jason Bordoff wrote on May 22, the phase one deal was already unlikely to live up to expectations—China is supposed to purchase $19 billion worth of U.S. energy products this year, a number they are unlikely to reach as coronavirus pressures have slowed energy exports.
What We’re Following Today Russia and U.S. meet for nuclear talks. Envoys from the United States and Russia are due to meet in Vienna today for arms control talks aimed at extending the New Start nuclear nonproliferation treaty beyond its February 2021 expiry date. U.S. Special Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea has continually pushed for China to join the talks and sign on to the treaty. “New arms control should definitely involve Russia AND China, and cover entire nuclear arsenals of both those countries,” Billingslea wrote on Twitter on June 19. China has rebuffed invitations to join the talks citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal relative to the United States and Russia.
EU-China annual summit. Representatives from the European Union and China meet today for an annual summit between the two powers. Chinese premier Li Keqiang leads the Chinese delegation, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will lead the European side along with European Council President Charles Michel. An EU press release says the meeting will discuss “cooperation on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic and on the recovery” as well as EU-China bilateral relations, including “the economy and trade, connectivity, sustainable development and climate change, security and defense.”
U.K. police treat stabbing suspect as terrorism case. Three people were killed in a public park in Reading, near London, after being stabbed by a knife-wielding attacker. British police have arrested the alleged perpetrator Khairi Saadallah—a 25-year-old Libyan man—under the country’s terrorism act. Saadallah had fled the civil war in Libya and had been granted asylum in the United Kingdom. In the wake of the stabbings, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson vowed to make changes to the British legal system to prevent further attacks.
Kiribati votes on its future. The Pacific island nation of Kiribati votes today in a presidential election with geopolitical implications. On June 19 in Foreign Policy, Christopher Pala explored how the battle between Kiribati President Taneti Maamau and challenger Banuera Berina has become a referendum on Chinese influence on the island. Kiribati had been one of the few countries that recognized Taiwan’s sovereign status until the incumbent Maamau switched the country’s support to China in 2019.
Keep an Eye On
Record high summer temperatures in Arctic circle. The town of Verkhoyansk in northeast Siberia has likely logged the highest temperature ever recorded within the Arctic circle when it reached 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit (38º Celsius) on June 20. The average June temperatures in the area is usually around 68 degrees (20º Celsius). The temperature has yet to be confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization, which verifies extreme temperature records. Melting permafrost from unseasonably high temperatures has already led to disaster in Russia after it contributed to the collapse of a fuel tank in the Siberian city of Norilsk at the beginning of June.
WHO records highest daily coronavirus case count. The World Health Organization (WHO) recorded the highest daily spike in new coronavirus cases globally on Sunday, beating the record set the previous week. Overall 183,020 new cases were recorded, with roughly half of all global cases coming from Brazil (54,771) and the United States (36,617). The WHO attributed the dramatic jump in Brazil’s daily cases to a lag in testing data coming from three states. According to a model by researchers at the University of Washington, Brazil’s number of total cases could surpass that of the United States as soon as August 1.
The World This Week
On Tuesday, June 23, voters in Malawi will head to the polls for a rerun of the country’s 2019 presidential election. Malawi’s constitutional court overturned last year’s election victory of incumbent Peter Mutharika, citing irregularities in the vote.
Also on Tuesday, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet via videoconference to discuss Indian-Chinese border tensions. The meeting was scheduled following last week’s clashes in the Galwan valley between Indian and Chinese troops.
On Wednesday, June 24, U.S. President Donald Trump hosts President Andrzej Duda at the White House. The meeting is a welcome boost for Duda ahead of the Polish presidential election scheduled for this Sunday, June 28. A Pew Research Center poll published in January 2020 showed Poland gave Trump a higher approval rating than any other European country surveyed.
Also on Wednesday, Russia will host its Victory Day parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II. Russia had previously moved the date from May 9, citing coronavirus fears.
The following day, June 25, voting opens for a referendum on changes to Russia’s constitution, including measures that could allow President Vladimir Putin to continue past his current term limits. The voting period ends on July 1. On Sunday, Putin said he would be open to running for another term if voters approve the changes.
Odds and Ends
The coronavirus has introduced a whole new set of variables in professional sports; social distancing, empty stadiums, and the risk of infection all change the way games are played. One Russian soccer team in the country’s top league found this out the hard way when it was forced to field a youth team after all of its professional players were sidelined by a coronavirus outbreak. FC Rostov, which sits in fourth place in the Russian premier league, ended up losing 10-1 to PFC Sochi, ranked 6 places below them. Rostov had initially led 1-0 before the dramatic reversal. The club tried to put a positive spin on things in the wake of defeat, pointing to their 17-year-old goalkeeper’s 15 saves over the course of the match—a new league record.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-22--Democrats Face Foreign-Policy Reckoning in New York Race

A powerful Democratic lawmaker at the center of congressional investigations into U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s foreign policy is fighting for his political life in a primary against a progressive insurgent , a potential bellwether race in the fight to frame the party ’ s approach to the world .
After 31 years in office , Rep. Eliot Engel , a centrist New York congressman and the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee , is neck-and-neck in the polls with Jamaal Bowman , a progressive 44-year-old Bronx middle school principal in his first run for office , ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election .
The race is in many ways a microcosm for the continuing rift between centrist and progressive arms of the Democratic Party , which some analysts describe as a worrisome sign as the party is desperately trying to come together behind presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden in the November election .
“ Progressives are trying to make a blue seat bluer and see this as a prime opportunity to make a statement , ” said Joel Rubin , the former director for Jewish outreach on the presidential campaign of former candidate Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of state during the Obama administration .
“ Whatever happens on Tuesday , it ’ s going to cause heartburn in both directions.
” The congressional contest comes with an added layer of foreign-policy weight considering Engel ’ s influential perch on a powerful congressional committee and his reputation as a stalwart supporter of Israel on the left .
If Engel is unseated , the Democrats will lose a seasoned veteran of grueling political battles with the Trump administration on Capitol Hill .
Engel helped lead the House impeachment probe and has repeatedly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pompeo during other oversight investigations into alleged malpractice and mismanagement by the administration ’ s foreign-policy team .
Engel and Bowman have each reportedly raised about $ 2 million in the hotly contested election , and both are relying on endorsements from different factions of the Democratic Party to help gain an edge ahead of Tuesday ’ s primary vote .
Bowman netted endorsements from the leading progressive lawmakers , including Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren , as well as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez .
Centrist stalwarts including former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nancy Pelosi endorsed Engel .
“ I have worked with Eliot Engel as first lady , as senator from New York and as secretary of state , ” Clinton said in a statement to the New York Times on June 15 .
“ Every step of the way , his No .
1 priority has always remained the same : delivering for his constituents.
” Engel comfortably won his reelection race in 2018 , carrying the district by over 70 percent of the vote in the primary and facing no Republican challenger in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , New York ’ s 16th District—and the national political landscape—could be shifting under his feet .
Bowman and his progressive allies have seized on Engel ’ s stumbles and absence from the district after a reporter from the Atlantic found him at home in Maryland while New York became a hot spot for the coronavirus pandemic .
Before a news conference this month , Engel was caught on a hot mic pressing for a turn to speak at a political event in the Bronx , telling another speaker , “ If I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I wouldn ’ t care , ” a clip that went viral on social media .
Defending himself at a June debate , Engel insisted that he was in Washington “ doing my job.
” Bowman ’ s ascent is also fueled in part by the nationwide reckoning on racial injustice and police violence following George Floyd ’ s killing and ensuing worldwide protests , political analysts say .
Bowman , who is Black , initially launched his campaign on these issues and has gained considerable momentum and funding in the final stretch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Friday that it raised $ 1 million during June alone .
But the prospect of progressive newcomers knocking off two party kingpins in just two election cycles—after Ocasio-Cortez defeated former Rep. Joe Crowley , the former chairman of the House Democratic Caucus—has also raised fears among Democratic faithfuls of a new insurgency within their ranks .
“ What we ’ re seeing is that [ just as ] the Republicans experienced their Tea Party … the Democrats have their AOC and those new young faces in Congress who haven ’ t been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staffer .
Engel has cast himself as a longtime advocate for racial justice and cited his history of protesting police violence , including attending past protests and speaking at the funeral of Ramarley Graham , an 18-year-old Black man killed by police in 2012 .
“ I ’ m no Johnny-come-lately on issues of social justice , ” he said , as the Washington Post reported .
House Majority Whip James Clyburn , the highest-ranking African American in Congress , has also backed Engel ’ s reelection bid .
“ Let me be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with proven records of standing up for civil and human rights , ” he said , according to an endorsement statement first obtained by Politico .
“ Eliot Engel is not new to the fight for justice and equality—he ’ s been in the fight his entire life , and I have worked with him on these issues for almost three decades.
” Both candidates have also made foreign policy an issue on the campaign trail .
Long before the protests broke out , Bowman peppered Engel with a steady drumbeat of foreign-policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ veteran congressman for being late to the party on key progressive issues .
“ You voted against President Obama ’ s Iran [ nuclear ] deal .
You said on CNN just this past June that you didn ’ t want to tie Trump ’ s hands when it came to strikes on Iran , ” Bowman tweeted at Engel in January , as he urged his rival to sign on to a Democratic push to strip Pentagon funding for offensive military action against Iran .
“ You ’ ve belatedly come around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the grassroots.
” Bowman has attacked Engel for accepting campaign donations from major defense contractors , which regularly contribute to both Democratic and Republican candidates during election cycles .
“ My opponent accepts donations from corporations and arms manufacturers like Lockheed Martin , Northrop Grumman , and Raytheon .
He supports a hawkish and costly foreign policy agenda instead of focusing on the communities in our district that have been neglected for far too long , ” Bowman said .
Bowman has also linked police violence in the United States to violence against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , considered one of the strongest supporters of U.S.-Israel ties in the Democratic Party .
“ Just as the police force is a violent intimidating force in so many black communities , I can connect to what it feels like for Palestinians to feel the presence of the military in their daily lives in the West Bank , ” he wrote in the Riverdale Press on June 18 .
Progressives looking to flip blue seats say they plan to use the demonstrable momentum shift in their favor over the past month .
Bowman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advantage by backing protesters ’ calls to defund the police and shift resources to job creation during controversial law enforcement crackdowns on nationwide racial injustice protests , while Engel has hedged .
It ’ s an approach that ’ s likely to inform Bowman ’ s foreign-policy thinking too , supporters say .
“ It shows the growing understanding that domestic and foreign policy are inseparable , ” said one advisor to Sanders .
“ We see a militarized police response , we see our militarized foreign policy now blowing back through our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoken to that boldly and courageously.
” Still , some of Engel ’ s strongest supporters on Capitol Hill have framed their endorsements around his work overseeing U.S. foreign policy and investigating the Trump administration .
“ Ever since Trump took office , Eliot has helped expose the abuses of his administration , and hold this lawless president accountable , ” said Rep. Adam Schiff , the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee .
“ Eliot is a dedicated and talented public servant who knows how to get things done for the people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to protect our democracy .
He has my full support for his reelection.
” Pro-Israel political action committees ( PACs ) have poured money into the campaign to support Engel .
One PAC , the Democratic Majority for Israel , has put more than $ 600,000 into the congressman ’ s race , issuing an ad that criticizes Bowman for not paying state taxes in the past .
( He has since paid them off . )
Engel ’ s campaign told other media outlets afterward it did not coordinate with the PAC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ad .
Bowman did not respond to multiple requests for an interview from Foreign Policy .
Engel ’ s campaign did not respond to a request for comment .
Bowman is one of a raft of progressive candidates pushing to move the Democratic Party further to the left across the country , many buoyed by energy from the ongoing protests .
In Kentucky ’ s Democratic Senate primary for the right to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath has seen her lead over Charles Booker , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , evaporate despite her campaign breaking fundraising records .
Former Democratic presidential contender John Hickenlooper has also found himself in a tight race against a progressive challenger in a Colorado Senate bid .
The rise of Bowman , Booker , and other Black candidates in this election cycle has pointed to a lack of African American representation on Capitol Hill , some Democratic congressional aides say .
“ There was this sense of we elected a Black president , we ’ re done , we checked that box , ” one Senate aide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s clearly not the case .
You only have to look at the composition of the House and Senate to see that .
”

A powerful Democratic lawmaker at the center of congressional investigations into U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is fighting for his political life in a primary against a progressive insurgent, a potential bellwether race in the fight to frame the party’s approach to the world.
A powerful Democratic lawmaker at the center of congressional investigations into U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is fighting for his political life in a primary against a progressive insurgent, a potential bellwether race in the fight to frame the party’s approach to the world.
After 31 years in office, Rep. Eliot Engel, a centrist New York congressman and the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is neck-and-neck in the polls with Jamaal Bowman, a progressive 44-year-old Bronx middle school principal in his first run for office, ahead of the June 23 New York primary election.
The race is in many ways a microcosm for the continuing rift between centrist and progressive arms of the Democratic Party, which some analysts describe as a worrisome sign as the party is desperately trying to come together behind presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden in the November election.
“Progressives are trying to make a blue seat bluer and see this as a prime opportunity to make a statement,” said Joel Rubin, the former director for Jewish outreach on the presidential campaign of former candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders and a deputy assistant secretary of state during the Obama administration. “Whatever happens on Tuesday, it’s going to cause heartburn in both directions.”
The congressional contest comes with an added layer of foreign-policy weight considering Engel’s influential perch on a powerful congressional committee and his reputation as a stalwart supporter of Israel on the left.
If Engel is unseated, the Democrats will lose a seasoned veteran of grueling political battles with the Trump administration on Capitol Hill. Engel helped lead the House impeachment probe and has repeatedly locked horns with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during other oversight investigations into alleged malpractice and mismanagement by the administration’s foreign-policy team.
Engel and Bowman have each reportedly raised about $2 million in the hotly contested election, and both are relying on endorsements from different factions of the Democratic Party to help gain an edge ahead of Tuesday’s primary vote.
Bowman netted endorsements from the leading progressive lawmakers, including Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, as well as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Centrist stalwarts including former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, Sen. Chuck Schumer, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Engel.
“I have worked with Eliot Engel as first lady, as senator from New York and as secretary of state,” Clinton said in a statement to the New York Times on June 15. “Every step of the way, his No. 1 priority has always remained the same: delivering for his constituents.”
Engel comfortably won his reelection race in 2018, carrying the district by over 70 percent of the vote in the primary and facing no Republican challenger in the general election. But this year, New York’s 16th District—and the national political landscape—could be shifting under his feet.
Bowman and his progressive allies have seized on Engel’s stumbles and absence from the district after a reporter from the Atlantic found him at home in Maryland while New York became a hot spot for the coronavirus pandemic. Before a news conference this month, Engel was caught on a hot mic pressing for a turn to speak at a political event in the Bronx, telling another speaker, “If I didn’t have a primary, I wouldn’t care,” a clip that went viral on social media. Defending himself at a June debate, Engel insisted that he was in Washington “doing my job.”
Bowman’s ascent is also fueled in part by the nationwide reckoning on racial injustice and police violence following George Floyd’s killing and ensuing worldwide protests, political analysts say. Bowman, who is Black, initially launched his campaign on these issues and has gained considerable momentum and funding in the final stretch of the primary. His campaign said on Friday that it raised $1 million during June alone.
But the prospect of progressive newcomers knocking off two party kingpins in just two election cycles—after Ocasio-Cortez defeated former Rep. Joe Crowley, the former chairman of the House Democratic Caucus—has also raised fears among Democratic faithfuls of a new insurgency within their ranks. “What we’re seeing is that [just as] the Republicans experienced their Tea Party … the Democrats have their AOC and those new young faces in Congress who haven’t been there,” said one former congressional staffer.
Engel has cast himself as a longtime advocate for racial justice and cited his history of protesting police violence, including attending past protests and speaking at the funeral of Ramarley Graham, an 18-year-old Black man killed by police in 2012. “I’m no Johnny-come-lately on issues of social justice,” he said, as the Washington Post reported.
House Majority Whip James Clyburn, the highest-ranking African American in Congress, has also backed Engel’s reelection bid. “Let me be blunt: We need leaders in Congress with proven records of standing up for civil and human rights,” he said, according to an endorsement statement first obtained by Politico. “Eliot Engel is not new to the fight for justice and equality—he’s been in the fight his entire life, and I have worked with him on these issues for almost three decades.”
Both candidates have also made foreign policy an issue on the campaign trail. Long before the protests broke out, Bowman peppered Engel with a steady drumbeat of foreign-policy attacks from the left, castigating the veteran congressman for being late to the party on key progressive issues.
“You voted against President Obama’s Iran [nuclear] deal. You said on CNN just this past June that you didn’t want to tie Trump’s hands when it came to strikes on Iran,” Bowman tweeted at Engel in January, as he urged his rival to sign on to a Democratic push to strip Pentagon funding for offensive military action against Iran. “You’ve belatedly come around after being pushed by our communities and the grassroots.”
Bowman has attacked Engel for accepting campaign donations from major defense contractors, which regularly contribute to both Democratic and Republican candidates during election cycles.
“My opponent accepts donations from corporations and arms manufacturers like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon. He supports a hawkish and costly foreign policy agenda instead of focusing on the communities in our district that have been neglected for far too long,” Bowman said.
Bowman has also linked police violence in the United States to violence against Palestinians, further differentiating himself from Engel, considered one of the strongest supporters of U.S.-Israel ties in the Democratic Party. “Just as the police force is a violent intimidating force in so many black communities, I can connect to what it feels like for Palestinians to feel the presence of the military in their daily lives in the West Bank,” he wrote in the Riverdale Press on June 18.
Progressives looking to flip blue seats say they plan to use the demonstrable momentum shift in their favor over the past month. Bowman, for instance, has gotten first-mover advantage by backing protesters’ calls to defund the police and shift resources to job creation during controversial law enforcement crackdowns on nationwide racial injustice protests, while Engel has hedged. It’s an approach that’s likely to inform Bowman’s foreign-policy thinking too, supporters say.
“It shows the growing understanding that domestic and foreign policy are inseparable,” said one advisor to Sanders. “We see a militarized police response, we see our militarized foreign policy now blowing back through our streets, and I think Bowman has spoken to that boldly and courageously.”
Still, some of Engel’s strongest supporters on Capitol Hill have framed their endorsements around his work overseeing U.S. foreign policy and investigating the Trump administration.
“Ever since Trump took office, Eliot has helped expose the abuses of his administration, and hold this lawless president accountable,” said Rep. Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. “Eliot is a dedicated and talented public servant who knows how to get things done for the people of his district, while working diligently to protect our democracy. He has my full support for his reelection.”
Pro-Israel political action committees (PACs) have poured money into the campaign to support Engel. One PAC, the Democratic Majority for Israel, has put more than $600,000 into the congressman’s race, issuing an ad that criticizes Bowman for not paying state taxes in the past. (He has since paid them off.) Engel’s campaign told other media outlets afterward it did not coordinate with the PAC and asked it to take down the ad.
Bowman did not respond to multiple requests for an interview from Foreign Policy. Engel’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Bowman is one of a raft of progressive candidates pushing to move the Democratic Party further to the left across the country, many buoyed by energy from the ongoing protests. In Kentucky’s Democratic Senate primary for the right to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath has seen her lead over Charles Booker, a Black man running to her left, evaporate despite her campaign breaking fundraising records. Former Democratic presidential contender John Hickenlooper has also found himself in a tight race against a progressive challenger in a Colorado Senate bid.
The rise of Bowman, Booker, and other Black candidates in this election cycle has pointed to a lack of African American representation on Capitol Hill, some Democratic congressional aides say. “There was this sense of we elected a Black president, we’re done, we checked that box,” one Senate aide told Foreign Policy. “That’s clearly not the case. You only have to look at the composition of the House and Senate to see that.”


foreignpolicy--2020-06-22--The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution We know from every disaster movie that time is supposed to accelerate , not stand still , during a catastrophe .
If asked to draw a scenario months ago , most of us would have imagined moments of chaos and disorder , akin to the profound social chaos in Florence during the plague as described by Boccaccio in his 14th-century work The Decameron , “ all respect for the laws of God and man … broken down.
” Instead , for weeks after the coronavirus pandemic arrived , silence and composure seemed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracks—deliberately and methodically—and this , too , confounded expectations .
For the first time , an economic crisis resulted not from the sudden loss of control over economic processes but from a collective decision to switch off large segments of the economy .
On a graph , it seems less appropriate to plot a rapidly nosediving line than one frozen in time .
Pandemics are a recurrent phenomenon in human history .
The “ great pause ” is new .
In assessing the historical significance of the pandemic , the way we chose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the natural event itself .
Paradoxically , modern societies governed by continuous movement responded to the crisis by stopping a large part of social and economic activity .
As a public policy choice , it may have been inevitable .
As an experiment , it was unprecedented .
With the Spanish flu a century ago , people adapted their individual behavior , but social life proceeded more or less as before .
“ Public places of amusement ” were shuttered , but work and business were little affected overall .
Many workers suffered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but in the United States , real gross national product actually grew in 1919 , albeit by a modest 1 percent .
Retail was barely affected , and businesses did not declare bankruptcy at unusual rates .
With the coronavirus , the response was very different .
Abruptly and with little notice , the economy was put on pause .
In part , that ’ s because we now have the tools to do so : the internet and other information and logistics technologies to keep essential services going , and activist central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic shock .
The illusion that economic time can not be stopped—that the economy is an organic entity outside of social control—was tacitly shattered .
A health official in the United Kingdom recently explained that at first , no restrictive measures were put in place because no one knew it was possible—let alone easy , as he put it—to impose a lockdown in a modern society .
Without the pandemic , we might never have found out .
Like the hero of a bildungsroman , we had to wait for an unexpected crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ powers .
The crisis will leave scars but also awaken new and unsuspected forces .
The explosion of public protests over racial injustice in recent weeks is just one example—a foreshadowing of other movements to come .
Someone once said that it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the end of capitalism .
It is a plausible formulation , even in its comical effect .
And yet , the current crisis proved the opposite .
Capitalism was remarkably easy to stop—or at least to interrupt .
All @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis , a crisis where the external conditions for a capitalist economy were suddenly removed .
Among the once unquestionable beliefs that may now take a new meaning is the idea of the economy as a living organism .
It is not an insignificant idea .
Modern economics has been based on the notion of an autonomous economic sphere—markets capable of creating innovation by their own power and resistant to outside manipulation .
Without this concept , Western societies would not have been able to produce either the economic dynamism they have enjoyed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of political consensus that enabled it .
Under the inherited view , the economy is too complex to be engineered .
It is grown , not made .
Knowledge is not fully accessible .
It is hidden in billions or trillions of interacting units , too mysterious to be spelled out .
Just as living systems retain a state of stable dynamic equilibrium or homeostasis , the market can also regulate itself through negative feedback and similarly automated mechanisms .
A different way of looking at the economy would mark a new beginning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The poles of Western economic debate in the 20th century even shared the same underlying metaphor , although with slightly different emphases .
When the conservative icon Friedrich Hayek compared a modern economy to a living organism , he wanted to provoke a kind of respect or wonder directed at the market order , and thus place economic knowledge beyond human control .
As he explained on one occasion , to assume that the existing economic system must be deliberately controlled is the last remnant of the primitive mind , which sees an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should think of the economy as “ an organism in which every part performs a necessary function for the continuance of the whole , without any human mind having devised it.
” The idol of contemporary left economics , John Maynard Keynes , did not disagree .
He , too , viewed a modern industrial economy as a living organism and was strongly influenced by Darwinist thought in his early writings .
His disagreement with classical economics hinged on the question of whether an economy could be relied upon to keep itself in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by public authorities might be necessary .
The question was not whether an economy should be regarded as a living organism but whether this organism might sometimes need a doctor .
Keynes believed that fluctuations in aggregate demand need to be managed , since they determine the general state of the economy , including aggregate output and , thus , employment .
If anything , Keynes only stressed the carousel nature of a modern economy : The postponement of spending or investing represents an immediate loss in revenue and income to the industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one element of the economy , and everything comes tumbling down .
But , if both Hayek and Keynes saw the economy as a living organism or natural intelligence , we are on the cusp of seeing it as something akin to a computer program , an artificial intelligence .
After what we ’ ve witnessed during the pandemic , it makes sense to compare the economy to computer code .
The “ great pause ” imposed by authorities was analogous to a computer programmer removing a handful of routines and subroutines from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largely unmodified .
With the shutdown orders in March , at least one quarter of the U.S. economy—everything that could no longer work safely in the new environment , from restaurants to gyms to movie theaters—was taken offline , while the rest continued to operate with limited disruption .
Among the surprises was that this could work .
At the beginning of the pandemic in Europe and North America , the widespread fear that economic and social life would be irreparably damaged prompted many consumers to stock up on essential goods .
Photos @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long lines outside supermarkets and empty shelves inside .
As amateur economists , we all knew one thing : Given a deep enough external shock , the economy could well collapse like a house of cards .
In fact , supply chains adapted and readjusted at extraordinary speed .
Walmart started shipping e-commerce orders from 2,500 stores to keep up with a boom in online ordering brought on by the pandemic .
E-commerce sales grew 74 percent year over year in the first quarter .
Shipping directly from stores has been part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company quickly hired more than 235,000 new workers in order to adapt to shifting demand in the time of the coronavirus .
“ One of the pieces of innovation that might go unnoticed here is that our team figured out how to hire people in a much shorter period of time , ” CEO Doug McMillon explained in a recent earnings call .
“ What would have taken us days and weeks was taking us hours and days.
” In Italy , when the government ordered extended closures for nonessential businesses , some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the grounds that they were part of a supply chain to businesses that were themselves essential .
Thus , for example , a company that makes power generation systems might be allowed to remain open because its customers are in essential supply chains .
The company would send a certified email to the authorities , and the information it provided would be checked against available records and information provided by other companies .
Tire-maker Pirelli reported in March that production in Italy wasn ’ t affected at all , with road travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said it received real-time information to manage logistics .
This level of dynamic analysis of the supply chain—simulations continuously being run and updated—would have been impossible before recent developments in information and communication technology , the same developments facilitating the growth of complex value chains .
Demand for robotics has exploded , especially in the food supply chain .
If workers are kept at home or unable to travel across borders because of the pandemic , machines that can harvest and deliver food are an obvious solution .
In other cases , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disinfection robots , equipped with tools such as ultraviolet light to kill viruses .
There are many similar examples where the latest technology is helping limit disruption to supply chains .
None of this has anything to do with the spontaneous interplay of individual economic units that economists like to talk about .
In fact , it comes remarkably close to what Hayek called an organization , something akin to a collective mind .
In some cases , the government took over the function of reorganizing economic activity ; in others , large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ internet brought the leading actors together and helped them align their views and methods .
Any resistance from opposing interests was effectively co-opted or overcome .
It is still unclear how much output will be further lost if there are additional demand shocks from higher unemployment and the loss of household wealth and business spending ; government stimulus programs can not fill the gap .
But it should be kept in mind that the shutdown has reshaped patterns of consumption , diverting money to those sectors still operating at near to full capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than $ 2.5 trillion globally—is up for grabs as consumers shift to dining at home and experimenting with new buying channels .
In Amazon ’ s first quarter , its online net store sales grew by 24 percent year over year .
March grew at a rate of around 40 percent .
Before the pandemic , online groceries accounted for less than 5 percent of the U.S. grocery market .
That share is now expected to exceed 10 percent this year .
There has been plenty of speculation on whether these changes will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not .
There will be considerable reversion to the mean once the worst of the pandemic is over .
Nor is that the most interesting question .
What should strike us is not the appearance of one irresistible historical trend or another—remote work , the end of globalization , a Chinese world order—but the sudden awakening of a new collective power to steer society in new directions .
It is deeply disconcerting to find oneself living in a programmable economy .
Suddenly , what every economist and politician had assured us could not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of highly specialized social purposes—has materialized before our eyes .
The full meaning of the experience is only now starting to be understood .
That process may now be so advanced that the best way to think about the economy is as the longest computer program in the world , composed of continuously evolving , and manipulable , lines of code .
That should not be understood as a license to just follow our wishes .
These lines of code are interconnected , and even the smallest bug , if left undetected , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What the metaphor promises is the ability to stop , think , and change our circumstances .
Ultimately , we stand outside the economic system , and it can be changed in strikingly new ways .
As opposed to a living organism , a computer program is not something formed but can exist in different , potentially infinite , versions .
At the height of the lockdowns , roughly one-fourth to one-third of our economies were put on pause .
There is no doubt that many things will have to change moving forward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the recent pandemic-induced layoffs will result in permanent job loss .
Whole sectors have been singled out for closure .
Others will be created anew .
For many on the radical left and the radical right , this is the doctrine they have been preaching .
If whole economies can be reprogrammed to eliminate the risk of a viral infection , then it must be possible to do the same for the sake of other , equally desirable social purposes .
When the virus arrived , the same authorities who had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ homelessness quickly found the resources to house the indigent .
In brief : Stop the historical clock and reorient economic activity in new directions , while preserving the core of social and economic order .
That takes us to the recent protests for racial equality , which in the United States quickly became a social movement on a dramatic scale .
When George Floyd was killed by police while handcuffed and lying face down on a city street , the nation dropped the fight against the virus and turned to its inner demons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It has been an exalted moment , with protesters and rioters descending on the streets , wearing masks but joining together in large groups , against all previous health advice .
The quick succession from lockdown to protest was far from coincidental .
The “ great pause ” was itself a social movement , the largest in memory and global in nature .
In a matter of days or weeks , the virus managed to reorganize society around a single purpose , while a set of powerful tools were developed and perfected .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort , whether consciously or unconsciously .
Above all , they learned that another world is possible .
( Coming as it does during a pandemic , the lesson should probably read : Another end of the world is possible . )
The virus taught us that social life can be reprogrammed .
It left open the question of what changes should be made to the social program .
The “ great pause ” was predicated on the thesis that social engineering works , or at least that it can work .
Once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been accepted in the fight against COVID-19—all sorts of social calculations become difficult to resist .
Thus , a letter was signed by dozens of American public health and disease experts arguing that white supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19 .
One epidemiologist wrote that the public health risks of not protesting for an end to systemic racism “ greatly exceed the harms of the virus.
” I remember seeing a protester carrying a sign with this simple message : Treat racism like COVID-19—by assuming you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about it , and changing everything about your life to end it .
How are these calculations—about how far to push social and economic change—to be made ?
There is no objective answer , of course .
We are not even used to asking the question because we never believed we had the kind of power that would make the exercise anything but otiose .
Modern Western societies like to think of themselves as being part of the accelerating movement of history—progress broadly understood .
Too often , however , the feeling in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control over all the movement or agitation taking place around us : The economy has its own logic and should be left to its own processes .
Society has a predetermined direction , one we can applaud but not shape .
The winning values have been determined , and our task is merely to realize them .
Being on the path of progress felt like being driven by forces beyond our control .
Stopping or pausing was something no one would dare to imagine , even as it comprised the indispensable first step @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That the historical clock could stop—in whatever form—seemed an impossibility .
The impossibility arrived in the form of a global catastrophe .
Was time revealed as an illusion ?
Perhaps not in the simple forms it takes in our individual lives , but time as a historical reality has indeed acquired a new , radical meaning .
The future is not given .
The future is programmable .
The pandemic will not be remembered as a pandemic but as a revolution .

We know from every disaster movie that time is supposed to accelerate, not stand still, during a catastrophe. If asked to draw a scenario months ago, most of us would have imagined moments of chaos and disorder, akin to the profound social chaos in Florence during the plague as described by Boccaccio in his 14th-century work The Decameron, “all respect for the laws of God and man … broken down.”
We know from every disaster movie that time is supposed to accelerate, not stand still, during a catastrophe. If asked to draw a scenario months ago, most of us would have imagined moments of chaos and disorder, akin to the profound social chaos in Florence during the plague as described by Boccaccio in his 14th-century work The Decameron, “all respect for the laws of God and man … broken down.”
Instead, for weeks after the coronavirus pandemic arrived, silence and composure seemed to reign. Economies were stopped in their tracks—deliberately and methodically—and this, too, confounded expectations. For the first time, an economic crisis resulted not from the sudden loss of control over economic processes but from a collective decision to switch off large segments of the economy. On a graph, it seems less appropriate to plot a rapidly nosediving line than one frozen in time.
Pandemics are a recurrent phenomenon in human history. The “great pause” is new. In assessing the historical significance of the pandemic, the way we chose to respond may be more revealing than the natural event itself. Paradoxically, modern societies governed by continuous movement responded to the crisis by stopping a large part of social and economic activity. As a public policy choice, it may have been inevitable. As an experiment, it was unprecedented.
With the Spanish flu a century ago, people adapted their individual behavior, but social life proceeded more or less as before. “Public places of amusement” were shuttered, but work and business were little affected overall. Many workers suffered, dying in factories and mines; but in the United States, real gross national product actually grew in 1919, albeit by a modest 1 percent. Retail was barely affected, and businesses did not declare bankruptcy at unusual rates.
With the coronavirus, the response was very different. Abruptly and with little notice, the economy was put on pause. In part, that’s because we now have the tools to do so: the internet and other information and logistics technologies to keep essential services going, and activist central banks and governments to manage the resulting economic shock. The illusion that economic time cannot be stopped—that the economy is an organic entity outside of social control—was tacitly shattered.
A health official in the United Kingdom recently explained that at first, no restrictive measures were put in place because no one knew it was possible—let alone easy, as he put it—to impose a lockdown in a modern society. Without the pandemic, we might never have found out. Like the hero of a bildungsroman, we had to wait for an unexpected crisis to discover the true extent of our powers. The crisis will leave scars but also awaken new and unsuspected forces. The explosion of public protests over racial injustice in recent weeks is just one example—a foreshadowing of other movements to come.
Someone once said that it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the end of capitalism. It is a plausible formulation, even in its comical effect. And yet, the current crisis proved the opposite. Capitalism was remarkably easy to stop—or at least to interrupt. All that was needed was a genuine environmental crisis, a crisis where the external conditions for a capitalist economy were suddenly removed.
The new coronavirus achieved in days what both progressives and nationalists have long fought for. Powerful economic interests were sidelined, whole industries had to temporarily close down, oil consumption plummeted, national borders were closed, and export bans were imposed. It was a humbling experience, as the ripples of politics paled by comparison to the giant natural wave of the pandemic. But it was also a conversion moment, where one could finally see the social and economic system for what it is. The “great pause” revealed a hidden truth, and, once revealed, it cannot be forgotten.
Among the once unquestionable beliefs that may now take a new meaning is the idea of the economy as a living organism. It is not an insignificant idea. Modern economics has been based on the notion of an autonomous economic sphere—markets capable of creating innovation by their own power and resistant to outside manipulation. Without this concept, Western societies would not have been able to produce either the economic dynamism they have enjoyed for the past century or the extent of political consensus that enabled it.
Under the inherited view, the economy is too complex to be engineered. It is grown, not made. Knowledge is not fully accessible. It is hidden in billions or trillions of interacting units, too mysterious to be spelled out. Just as living systems retain a state of stable dynamic equilibrium or homeostasis, the market can also regulate itself through negative feedback and similarly automated mechanisms. A different way of looking at the economy would mark a new beginning in the history of modern capitalism.
The poles of Western economic debate in the 20th century even shared the same underlying metaphor, although with slightly different emphases. When the conservative icon Friedrich Hayek compared a modern economy to a living organism, he wanted to provoke a kind of respect or wonder directed at the market order, and thus place economic knowledge beyond human control. As he explained on one occasion, to assume that the existing economic system must be deliberately controlled is the last remnant of the primitive mind, which sees an intention in everything. Instead, we should think of the economy as “an organism in which every part performs a necessary function for the continuance of the whole, without any human mind having devised it.”
The idol of contemporary left economics, John Maynard Keynes, did not disagree. He, too, viewed a modern industrial economy as a living organism and was strongly influenced by Darwinist thought in his early writings. His disagreement with classical economics hinged on the question of whether an economy could be relied upon to keep itself in good shape—in equilibrium—or whether some occasional intervention by public authorities might be necessary. The question was not whether an economy should be regarded as a living organism but whether this organism might sometimes need a doctor.
Keynes believed that fluctuations in aggregate demand need to be managed, since they determine the general state of the economy, including aggregate output and, thus, employment. If anything, Keynes only stressed the carousel nature of a modern economy: The postponement of spending or investing represents an immediate loss in revenue and income to the industry producing the good or equipment. Stop one element of the economy, and everything comes tumbling down.
But, if both Hayek and Keynes saw the economy as a living organism or natural intelligence, we are on the cusp of seeing it as something akin to a computer program, an artificial intelligence. After what we’ve witnessed during the pandemic, it makes sense to compare the economy to computer code. The “great pause” imposed by authorities was analogous to a computer programmer removing a handful of routines and subroutines from her code and letting the rest run largely unmodified. With the shutdown orders in March, at least one quarter of the U.S. economy—everything that could no longer work safely in the new environment, from restaurants to gyms to movie theaters—was taken offline, while the rest continued to operate with limited disruption.
Among the surprises was that this could work. At the beginning of the pandemic in Europe and North America, the widespread fear that economic and social life would be irreparably damaged prompted many consumers to stock up on essential goods. Photos and videos circulated on social media showing long lines outside supermarkets and empty shelves inside. As amateur economists, we all knew one thing: Given a deep enough external shock, the economy could well collapse like a house of cards.
In fact, supply chains adapted and readjusted at extraordinary speed. Walmart started shipping e-commerce orders from 2,500 stores to keep up with a boom in online ordering brought on by the pandemic. E-commerce sales grew 74 percent year over year in the first quarter. Shipping directly from stores has been part of Walmart’s strategy, but the company quickly hired more than 235,000 new workers in order to adapt to shifting demand in the time of the coronavirus. “One of the pieces of innovation that might go unnoticed here is that our team figured out how to hire people in a much shorter period of time,” CEO Doug McMillon explained in a recent earnings call. “What would have taken us days and weeks was taking us hours and days.”
In Italy, when the government ordered extended closures for nonessential businesses, some 100,000 companies applied for a legal exemption on the grounds that they were part of a supply chain to businesses that were themselves essential. Thus, for example, a company that makes power generation systems might be allowed to remain open because its customers are in essential supply chains. The company would send a certified email to the authorities, and the information it provided would be checked against available records and information provided by other companies. Tire-maker Pirelli reported in March that production in Italy wasn’t affected at all, with road travel permitted between containment areas. The company said it received real-time information to manage logistics. This level of dynamic analysis of the supply chain—simulations continuously being run and updated—would have been impossible before recent developments in information and communication technology, the same developments facilitating the growth of complex value chains.
Demand for robotics has exploded, especially in the food supply chain. If workers are kept at home or unable to travel across borders because of the pandemic, machines that can harvest and deliver food are an obvious solution. In other cases, there has been a surge in demand for disinfection robots, equipped with tools such as ultraviolet light to kill viruses. There are many similar examples where the latest technology is helping limit disruption to supply chains.
None of this has anything to do with the spontaneous interplay of individual economic units that economists like to talk about. In fact, it comes remarkably close to what Hayek called an organization, something akin to a collective mind. In some cases, the government took over the function of reorganizing economic activity; in others, large dominant platforms performed that task. The internet brought the leading actors together and helped them align their views and methods. Any resistance from opposing interests was effectively co-opted or overcome.
It is still unclear how much output will be further lost if there are additional demand shocks from higher unemployment and the loss of household wealth and business spending; government stimulus programs cannot fill the gap. But it should be kept in mind that the shutdown has reshaped patterns of consumption, diverting money to those sectors still operating at near to full capacity. About 35 percent of food expenditures—more than $2.5 trillion globally—is up for grabs as consumers shift to dining at home and experimenting with new buying channels. In Amazon’s first quarter, its online net store sales grew by 24 percent year over year. March grew at a rate of around 40 percent. Before the pandemic, online groceries accounted for less than 5 percent of the U.S. grocery market. That share is now expected to exceed 10 percent this year.
There has been plenty of speculation on whether these changes will become permanent. They almost certainly will not. There will be considerable reversion to the mean once the worst of the pandemic is over. Nor is that the most interesting question. What should strike us is not the appearance of one irresistible historical trend or another—remote work, the end of globalization, a Chinese world order—but the sudden awakening of a new collective power to steer society in new directions.
It is deeply disconcerting to find oneself living in a programmable economy. Suddenly, what every economist and politician had assured us could not be done—build an economy for the sake of highly specialized social purposes—has materialized before our eyes. The full meaning of the experience is only now starting to be understood.
A few years ago, Marc Andreessen argued that software was eating the world. He described a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies took over large swaths of the economy. Software was even swallowing much of the value chain of industries that are widely viewed as primarily existing in the physical world.
That process may now be so advanced that the best way to think about the economy is as the longest computer program in the world, composed of continuously evolving, and manipulable, lines of code. That should not be understood as a license to just follow our wishes. These lines of code are interconnected, and even the smallest bug, if left undetected, can lead to a system crash. What the metaphor promises is the ability to stop, think, and change our circumstances. Ultimately, we stand outside the economic system, and it can be changed in strikingly new ways. As opposed to a living organism, a computer program is not something formed but can exist in different, potentially infinite, versions.
At the height of the lockdowns, roughly one-fourth to one-third of our economies were put on pause. There is no doubt that many things will have to change moving forward: A recent study estimates that 42 percent of the recent pandemic-induced layoffs will result in permanent job loss. Whole sectors have been singled out for closure. Others will be created anew. For many on the radical left and the radical right, this is the doctrine they have been preaching. If whole economies can be reprogrammed to eliminate the risk of a viral infection, then it must be possible to do the same for the sake of other, equally desirable social purposes. When the virus arrived, the same authorities who had always claimed nothing could be done about homelessness quickly found the resources to house the indigent. In brief: Stop the historical clock and reorient economic activity in new directions, while preserving the core of social and economic order.
That takes us to the recent protests for racial equality, which in the United States quickly became a social movement on a dramatic scale. When George Floyd was killed by police while handcuffed and lying face down on a city street, the nation dropped the fight against the virus and turned to its inner demons and the fight for racial equality. It has been an exalted moment, with protesters and rioters descending on the streets, wearing masks but joining together in large groups, against all previous health advice.
The quick succession from lockdown to protest was far from coincidental. The “great pause” was itself a social movement, the largest in memory and global in nature. In a matter of days or weeks, the virus managed to reorganize society around a single purpose, while a set of powerful tools were developed and perfected. The protesters have learned from that collective effort, whether consciously or unconsciously. Above all, they learned that another world is possible. (Coming as it does during a pandemic, the lesson should probably read: Another end of the world is possible.) The virus taught us that social life can be reprogrammed. It left open the question of what changes should be made to the social program.
The “great pause” was predicated on the thesis that social engineering works, or at least that it can work. Once this thesis is accepted—and it has generally been accepted in the fight against COVID-19—all sorts of social calculations become difficult to resist. Thus, a letter was signed by dozens of American public health and disease experts arguing that white supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19. One epidemiologist wrote that the public health risks of not protesting for an end to systemic racism “greatly exceed the harms of the virus.” I remember seeing a protester carrying a sign with this simple message: Treat racism like COVID-19—by assuming you could have it, listening to experts about it, and changing everything about your life to end it.
How are these calculations—about how far to push social and economic change—to be made? There is no objective answer, of course. We are not even used to asking the question because we never believed we had the kind of power that would make the exercise anything but otiose.
Modern Western societies like to think of themselves as being part of the accelerating movement of history—progress broadly understood. Too often, however, the feeling in these societies is that we have lost control over all the movement or agitation taking place around us: The economy has its own logic and should be left to its own processes. Society has a predetermined direction, one we can applaud but not shape. The winning values have been determined, and our task is merely to realize them. Being on the path of progress felt like being driven by forces beyond our control. Stopping or pausing was something no one would dare to imagine, even as it comprised the indispensable first step of a society deciding its own future. That the historical clock could stop—in whatever form—seemed an impossibility.
The impossibility arrived in the form of a global catastrophe. Was time revealed as an illusion? Perhaps not in the simple forms it takes in our individual lives, but time as a historical reality has indeed acquired a new, radical meaning. The future is not given. The future is programmable. The pandemic will not be remembered as a pandemic but as a revolution.