foreignpolicy--2020-02-26--Europe Is Thinking Harder About Divorcing America

This year ’ s Munich Security Conference convened under the rubric of “ Westlessness.
” The implication was clear : Not only are the United States and Europe staking out separate , clashing positions on everything from telecommunications to energy , but they have issued sharp disagreements on the basic building blocks of foreign relations—namely , how the international system should work .
French President Emmanuel Macron seized the spotlight , and sent the hearts of European federalists aflutter , by calling for “ a European way ” while raising the possibility of a French-led European nuclear deterrent , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States .
It is an axiom of international relations that democracies do not go to war with one another .
What is less clear , however , is the conditions under which they might separate into competing strategic blocs .
History is full of examples of democracies banding together into strategic alliances , but few examples of such countries decoupling and transforming into political rivals .
Are the United States and its closest allies in Europe nevertheless on the path to a historic divorce ?
If opinion polls are to go by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is this felt more acutely than in Germany , the most important country in Europe .
In January , Pew Research released a poll showing that 57 percent of Germans hold an outright unfavorable view of the United States .
A few months earlier , in September , the European Council on Foreign Relations reported that 70 percent of Germans want their country to remain neutral in any conflict between Moscow and Washington .
Germany ’ s anti-American impulses are a hydra-headed phenomenon rooted in both social and political life .
For some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ruthless and rootless , mowing down the social order in the service of individual greed .
For others , the United States ’ dominance of the West breeds resentment , especially in an era of globalization , when even the slightest shocks from across the Atlantic hit Germany ’ s bottom line or derail its diplomacy .
Most of all , however , Germany is dismayed that the United States , and especially the administration of President Donald Trump , does not share its reverence for the central ambition of the Munich Security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even liberals in the United States are skeptical of European-style multilateralism .
As the Brookings Institution ’ s Thomas Wright put it recently , the American left prefers “ a values-based approach of the like-minded to uphold a certain idea of international order ” rather than “ a convening project to bring everyone—including countries such as China and Russia—together.
” That approach may be more welcome to Germany than the Trump administration ’ s focus on outcomes over process , but it is still a blow to Germans , whose technical expertise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governance but bogs down in the grimy lowlands of geopolitical competition .
At Munich , German officials proudly trumpeted their recent conference on Libya , which managed to win an endorsement from the United Nations Security Council , but conceded that their efforts have done little to slow the actual conflict on the ground .
With Germany frustrated by the United States ( and the United Kingdom consumed by Brexit ) , France has identified an opportunity to press its Gaullist dreams .
At every turn , it has sought to empower the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. official told me recently , “ France wants NATO as a simple 911—an emergency line for the unlikely possibility of a five-alarm fire.
” This has produced tensions between Paris and Washington , which would prefer a more active NATO .
But those frictions have remained mostly at the technical level for a simple reason : the United States ’ political class is sure that Europe will not actually walk out on it .
This is true for three reasons that were on display at Munich last week .
First , Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , EU High Representative Josep Borrell drove this point home during a contentious dialogue with Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz , who spent the balance of his remarks pressing for transatlanticism .
“ You live in freedom because of the Vatican and the United States , ” Borrell countered .
“ But I lived under dictatorship for forty years because of the Vatican and the United States .
I can not say I see the United States the same way.
” Even the supposedly closest of allies , Germany and France , betrayed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has employed a frenetic style and launched a whir of disruptive initiatives recently , all of which clash with the steadier , more predictable approach preferred by Berlin .
As Macron has staked out new positions , including strategic outreach to Russia , Berlin has blanched .
From the western Balkans to Libya , the two most important countries of Europe have been at odds .
Those differences extend to the political architecture of Europe .
In his typical grandiloquence , Macron swept into Munich to give a speech but also to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country ’ s opposition party—all in the service of his vision for Europe .
“ If the German leadership acted this way in Paris , ” one attendee remarked to me in a jab at Macron ’ s sideline events , “ there would be outrage.
” Instead , Merkel has registered Macron ’ s plea for more Europe with stony silence .
For the Americans , the lesson seems clear : Complaining about the United States is one thing ; forging an independent European order another altogether .
Second , based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in the process of weakening .
Its hidebound economy lacks the risk-taking culture that produces innovation , and its demography is going from bad to worse .
Western Europe ’ s military capabilities are the stuff of jokes .
“ What ’ s the point of holding a security conference in a country whose army is smaller than France ’ s ?
” one American expert said to me after the conference .
Even the continent ’ s reliable mainstream is splintering .
No one can say that centrist parties are surefire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Macron may struggle to carry the day and remain in the Élysée past 2022 .
As a result , when Americans look to Europe , they see a flagging continent in need of U.S. support rather than an EU on the cusp of liftoff .
Third , Americans recognize that Europe lacks attractive power .
Today , there is no other bloc in the world that is more European than American .
Put another way , if Europe truly separated from the United States , it would struggle to find third parties that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
From Jerusalem to Tokyo , Europe ’ s natural partners all maintain closer relations with Washington than Brussels .
To be sure , there may be roving coalitions available for European initiatives to , say , keep the lights on at the World Trade Organization .
But overwhelmingly , the world ’ s major power centers neither share Europe ’ s affinity for supranationalism nor its particular brand of multilateral diplomacy .
As a result , Americans realize that Europe is far more likely to separate on an issue-by-issue basis from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posture .
Nonetheless , the world is full of suitors with seductive offers of cooperation .
In particular , the two most powerful illiberal states , China and Russia , are encouraging Europe to drift from the United States .
Both are offering low-priced alternatives to the liberal international order on telecommunications and energy .
Most notably , Germany ’ s growing economic dependence on China is pushing it away from the United States and ever closer to de facto neutrality on key security issues .
That trend is only likely to increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushing back on Russia ’ s strategy of energy blackmail or China ’ s dominance of national-security technologies , Germany may very well transform into a supersized Switzerland .
This will provide cover to other Europeans eyeing economic opportunities in China .
At Munich , for example , Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio offered a lengthy defense of Italy ’ s decision to join the Belt and Road Initiative .
If there is something to Westlessness , therefore , it is how quickly some Europeans have forgotten how unattractive the world looked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West had it as good as it does now .
The United States may be demanding a more balanced relationship on everything from trade to security , but that is a small price to pay for what a U.S.-led international system has to offer .
The United States may not be a cheap date , but unlike China , its affections for Europe are genuine—and enduring .

This year’s Munich Security Conference convened under the rubric of “Westlessness.” The implication was clear: Not only are the United States and Europe staking out separate, clashing positions on everything from telecommunications to energy, but they have issued sharp disagreements on the basic building blocks of foreign relations—namely, how the international system should work. French President Emmanuel Macron seized the spotlight, and sent the hearts of European federalists aflutter , by calling for “a European way” while raising the possibility of a French-led European nuclear deterrent, a precondition for any true independence from the United States.
This year’s Munich Security Conference convened under the rubric of “Westlessness.” The implication was clear: Not only are the United States and Europe staking out separate, clashing positions on everything from telecommunications to energy, but they have issued sharp disagreements on the basic building blocks of foreign relations—namely, how the international system should work. French President Emmanuel Macron seized the spotlight, and sent the hearts of European federalists aflutter, by calling for “a European way” while raising the possibility of a French-led European nuclear deterrent, a precondition for any true independence from the United States.
It is an axiom of international relations that democracies do not go to war with one another. What is less clear, however, is the conditions under which they might separate into competing strategic blocs. History is full of examples of democracies banding together into strategic alliances, but few examples of such countries decoupling and transforming into political rivals. Are the United States and its closest allies in Europe nevertheless on the path to a historic divorce?
If opinion polls are to go by, we are already separated. Nowhere is this felt more acutely than in Germany, the most important country in Europe. In January, Pew Research released a poll showing that 57 percent of Germans hold an outright unfavorable view of the United States. A few months earlier, in September, the European Council on Foreign Relations reported that 70 percent of Germans want their country to remain neutral in any conflict between Moscow and Washington.
Germany’s anti-American impulses are a hydra-headed phenomenon rooted in both social and political life. For some Germans, Anglo-Saxon capitalism is seen as ruthless and rootless, mowing down the social order in the service of individual greed. For others, the United States’ dominance of the West breeds resentment, especially in an era of globalization, when even the slightest shocks from across the Atlantic hit Germany’s bottom line or derail its diplomacy.
Most of all, however, Germany is dismayed that the United States, and especially the administration of President Donald Trump, does not share its reverence for the central ambition of the Munich Security Conference: multilateral diplomacy. In fact, even liberals in the United States are skeptical of European-style multilateralism. As the Brookings Institution’s Thomas Wright put it recently, the American left prefers “a values-based approach of the like-minded to uphold a certain idea of international order” rather than “a convening project to bring everyone—including countries such as China and Russia—together.” That approach may be more welcome to Germany than the Trump administration’s focus on outcomes over process, but it is still a blow to Germans, whose technical expertise thrives in the rarefied air of global governance but bogs down in the grimy lowlands of geopolitical competition. At Munich, German officials proudly trumpeted their recent conference on Libya, which managed to win an endorsement from the United Nations Security Council, but conceded that their efforts have done little to slow the actual conflict on the ground.
With Germany frustrated by the United States (and the United Kingdom consumed by Brexit), France has identified an opportunity to press its Gaullist dreams. At every turn, it has sought to empower the EU while limiting NATO. As one U.S. official told me recently, “France wants NATO as a simple 911—an emergency line for the unlikely possibility of a five-alarm fire.” This has produced tensions between Paris and Washington, which would prefer a more active NATO.
But those frictions have remained mostly at the technical level for a simple reason: the United States’ political class is sure that Europe will not actually walk out on it. This is true for three reasons that were on display at Munich last week.
First, Europe remains divided amongst itself. At Munich, EU High Representative Josep Borrell drove this point home during a contentious dialogue with Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz, who spent the balance of his remarks pressing for transatlanticism. “You live in freedom because of the Vatican and the United States,” Borrell countered. “But I lived under dictatorship for forty years because of the Vatican and the United States. I cannot say I see the United States the same way.”
Even the supposedly closest of allies, Germany and France, betrayed sharp differences during the conference. Macron has employed a frenetic style and launched a whir of disruptive initiatives recently, all of which clash with the steadier, more predictable approach preferred by Berlin. As Macron has staked out new positions, including strategic outreach to Russia, Berlin has blanched. From the western Balkans to Libya, the two most important countries of Europe have been at odds.
Those differences extend to the political architecture of Europe. In his typical grandiloquence, Macron swept into Munich to give a speech but also to work the German press and meet with the country’s opposition party—all in the service of his vision for Europe. “If the German leadership acted this way in Paris,” one attendee remarked to me in a jab at Macron’s sideline events, “there would be outrage.” Instead, Merkel has registered Macron’s plea for more Europe with stony silence. For the Americans, the lesson seems clear: Complaining about the United States is one thing; forging an independent European order another altogether.
Second, based on virtually any indicator of power, Europe is in the process of weakening. Its hidebound economy lacks the risk-taking culture that produces innovation, and its demography is going from bad to worse. Western Europe’s military capabilities are the stuff of jokes. “What’s the point of holding a security conference in a country whose army is smaller than France’s?” one American expert said to me after the conference. Even the continent’s reliable mainstream is splintering. No one can say that centrist parties are surefire bets to win the 2020s; even Macron may struggle to carry the day and remain in the Élysée past 2022. As a result, when Americans look to Europe, they see a flagging continent in need of U.S. support rather than an EU on the cusp of liftoff.
Third, Americans recognize that Europe lacks attractive power. Today, there is no other bloc in the world that is more European than American. Put another way, if Europe truly separated from the United States, it would struggle to find third parties that would choose it over the United States. From Jerusalem to Tokyo, Europe’s natural partners all maintain closer relations with Washington than Brussels. To be sure, there may be roving coalitions available for European initiatives to, say, keep the lights on at the World Trade Organization. But overwhelmingly, the world’s major power centers neither share Europe’s affinity for supranationalism nor its particular brand of multilateral diplomacy. As a result, Americans realize that Europe is far more likely to separate on an issue-by-issue basis from the United States than adopt an independent strategic posture.
Nonetheless, the world is full of suitors with seductive offers of cooperation. In particular, the two most powerful illiberal states, China and Russia, are encouraging Europe to drift from the United States. Both are offering low-priced alternatives to the liberal international order on telecommunications and energy. Most notably, Germany’s growing economic dependence on China is pushing it away from the United States and ever closer to de facto neutrality on key security issues. That trend is only likely to increase in the coming years. Instead of pushing back on Russia’s strategy of energy blackmail or China’s dominance of national-security technologies, Germany may very well transform into a supersized Switzerland. This will provide cover to other Europeans eyeing economic opportunities in China. At Munich, for example, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio offered a lengthy defense of Italy’s decision to join the Belt and Road Initiative.
If there is something to Westlessness, therefore, it is how quickly some Europeans have forgotten how unattractive the world looked before Pax Americana. Rarely has the West had it as good as it does now. The United States may be demanding a more balanced relationship on everything from trade to security, but that is a small price to pay for what a U.S.-led international system has to offer. The United States may not be a cheap date, but unlike China, its affections for Europe are genuine—and enduring.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-26--U.S. Officials Tell Americans to Brace for Coronavirus Outbreak

U.S. Officials Tell Americans to Brace for Coronavirus Outbreak Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : U.S. officials warn that the country should prepare for a coronavirus outbreak , the U.S. Democratic presidential candidates get combative on the debate stage , and Ireland ’ s major parties are meeting amid political deadlock .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday , please sign up here .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) has warned citizens to prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus within the United States , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China rises .
Outbreaks in Iran , South Korea , and Italy have highlighted the lack of global coordination to combat the virus , even as the number of new cases in China has fallen .
“ It ’ s not so much of a question if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen , ” a CDC official said on Tuesday .
The outbreaks in Iran and Italy in particular have raised concerns among global health experts .
Coronavirus cases rose by 45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outside the two hard-hit regions , with 322 confirmed infections and 11 deaths .
Meanwhile , the crisis could increase Iran ’ s isolation .
On Tuesday , U.S. officials said that Iran ’ s government may have “ suppressed vital details ” about its virus outbreak , which has killed at least 16 people .
European epidemic ?
Italy ’ s neighbors have so far pledged to keep their borders open , with health ministers saying calling travel restrictions a “ disproportionate and ineffective measure.
” Austria , Croatia , France , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases , and at least two hotels—in Austria and Spain—are under lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus .
Dirty money .
Beijing ’ s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau is asking all banks in China ’ s capital region to disinfect paper cash in an effort to halt the spread of the coronavirus .
After withdrawing bills from circulation , banks must disinfect them using ultraviolet light and keep them in a dry environment for a week .
Money coming from hospitals will be kept in a separate storage facility .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Fujian announced it had disinfected banknotes worth 6.9 billion yuan—roughly $ 980 million—since late January .
Markets bet on slowdown .
Global markets remain shaky as investors fear the threat of a coronavirus pandemic .
Stocks fell for the second straight day on Tuesday , with the Dow Jones industrial Average dropping by 900 points .
Some economic forecasters fear that the knock-on effects of China ’ s slowdown and increasing travel restrictions could hit the global economy hard—just as consumers were regaining confidence , FP ’ s Keith Johnson reports .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in debate .
Seven Democratic candidates took the stage in Charleston , South Carolina , in a debate that was more combative than the others so far , with candidates targeting Sen. Bernie Sanders—seen as a frontrunner—and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg .
The debate comes days before the South Carolina primary and one week ahead of Super Tuesday , when 14 states will hold votes .
It also focused more on foreign policy than past debates , with the candidates discussing China , North Korea , Syria , and Israel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Sanders could be tougher on Israel than his predecessors : He could become the first president in more than 40 years to declare Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal , FP ’ s Colum Lynch reports .
Read the rest of our coverage of foreign policy in the 2020 U.S. election here .
Ireland ’ s dominant parties meet to break deadlock .
The leaders of Ireland ’ s two dominant political parties , the center-right Fine Gael and Fianna Fail , have agreed to keep working to try to break @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the inconclusive Feb. 8 parliamentary election .
Obstacles to a coalition remain : Neither party has shared power before .
But both refuse to cooperate with the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein party , which won the most first-preference votes in the contest and held a rally on Tuesday to demand a place in the next government .
Delhi clashes overshadow Trump ’ s visit .
More than a dozen people have died in New Delhi in violent clashes between opposing groups during protests over India ’ s controversial new citizenship law , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immigrants from neighboring countries but excludes Muslims .
Much of the unrest has focused on New Delhi , India ’ s capital , where some schools and transit have been disrupted .
The ongoing riots distracted from and overshadowed U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s two-day state visit—his first to India .
For more news and analysis on stories like this , sign up for South Asia Brief , delivered on Tuesdays .
Mubarak ’ s legacy .
Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak died on Tuesday in an Egyptian military hospital at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three decades , an era of tyranny that ended when he was ousted during the Arab Spring in 2011 .
Mubarak ’ s downfall will be his legacy : The factors that led to the uprising and to his demise—corruption , cronyism , and inequality—still remain , H.A .
Hellyer writes in FP .
A Turkish town underwater .
The 12,000-year-old town of Hasankeyf in southeast Turkey is slowly disappearing as rising waters from a giant dam project—approved by the government in 1997—encroach .
After years of being held up , the dam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will eventually uproot nearly 80,000 people and could affect water supplies in neighboring Iraq .
Indigenous activism under fire .
A Costa Rican indigenous leader , Yehry Rivera , was shot and killed during a violent land dispute in the south of the country on Tuesday .
The confrontation came during an attempt to expel landholders occupying land granted to indigenous groups by law .
Rivera is the second indigenous activist killed in Costa Rica within a year .
Scotland ’ s government will become the first in the world to make sanitary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Scottish parliament approved a $ 31.2 million plan that will make tampons and pads available in public spaces such as community centers and pharmacies .
The legislation will now move to a second stage , with members of parliament proposing amendments .
Scotland already offers free sanitary products in schools and universities .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. officials warn that the country should prepare for a coronavirus outbreak , the U.S. Democratic presidential candidates get combative on the debate stage, and Ireland’s major parties are meeting amid political deadlock.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. officials warn that the country should prepare for a coronavirus outbreak, the U.S. Democratic presidential candidates get combative on the debate stage, and Ireland’s major parties are meeting amid political deadlock.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
U.S. Prepares for Coronavirus Outbreak
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned citizens to prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus within the United States, as the number of confirmed cases outside China rises. Outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, and Italy have highlighted the lack of global coordination to combat the virus, even as the number of new cases in China has fallen. “It’s not so much of a question if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,” a CDC official said on Tuesday.
The outbreaks in Iran and Italy in particular have raised concerns among global health experts. Coronavirus cases rose by 45 percent in Italy on Tuesday and spread outside the two hard-hit regions, with 322 confirmed infections and 11 deaths. Meanwhile, the crisis could increase Iran’s isolation. On Tuesday, U.S. officials said that Iran’s government may have “suppressed vital details” about its virus outbreak, which has killed at least 16 people.
European epidemic? Italy’s neighbors have so far pledged to keep their borders open, with health ministers saying calling travel restrictions a “disproportionate and ineffective measure.” Austria, Croatia, France, Spain, and Switzerland have all reported cases, and at least two hotels—in Austria and Spain—are under lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus.
Dirty money. Beijing’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau is asking all banks in China’s capital region to disinfect paper cash in an effort to halt the spread of the coronavirus. After withdrawing bills from circulation, banks must disinfect them using ultraviolet light and keep them in a dry environment for a week. Money coming from hospitals will be kept in a separate storage facility. China Construction Bank in the southeastern province of Fujian announced it had disinfected banknotes worth 6.9 billion yuan—roughly $980 million—since late January.
Markets bet on slowdown. Global markets remain shaky as investors fear the threat of a coronavirus pandemic. Stocks fell for the second straight day on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial Average dropping by 900 points. Some economic forecasters fear that the knock-on effects of China’s slowdown and increasing travel restrictions could hit the global economy hard—just as consumers were regaining confidence, FP’s Keith Johnson reports.
What We’re Following Today
U.S. Democratic candidates go on the attack in debate. Seven Democratic candidates took the stage in Charleston, South Carolina, in a debate that was more combative than the others so far, with candidates targeting Sen. Bernie Sanders—seen as a frontrunner—and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The debate comes days before the South Carolina primary and one week ahead of Super Tuesday, when 14 states will hold votes. It also focused more on foreign policy than past debates, with the candidates discussing China, North Korea, Syria, and Israel.
If he wins the White House, Sanders could be tougher on Israel than his predecessors: He could become the first president in more than 40 years to declare Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal, FP’s Colum Lynch reports.
Read the rest of our coverage of foreign policy in the 2020 U.S. election here.
Ireland’s dominant parties meet to break deadlock. The leaders of Ireland’s two dominant political parties, the center-right Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, have agreed to keep working to try to break the political deadlock in the wake of the inconclusive Feb. 8 parliamentary election. Obstacles to a coalition remain: Neither party has shared power before. But both refuse to cooperate with the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein party, which won the most first-preference votes in the contest and held a rally on Tuesday to demand a place in the next government.
Delhi clashes overshadow Trump’s visit. More than a dozen people have died in New Delhi in violent clashes between opposing groups during protests over India’s controversial new citizenship law, which offers a path to citizenship for some immigrants from neighboring countries but excludes Muslims. Much of the unrest has focused on New Delhi, India’s capital, where some schools and transit have been disrupted. The ongoing riots distracted from and overshadowed U.S. President Donald Trump’s two-day state visit—his first to India.
For more news and analysis on stories like this, sign up for South Asia Brief, delivered on Tuesdays.
Keep an Eye On
Mubarak’s legacy. Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak died on Tuesday in an Egyptian military hospital at the age of 91. Mubarak ruled for three decades, an era of tyranny that ended when he was ousted during the Arab Spring in 2011. Mubarak’s downfall will be his legacy: The factors that led to the uprising and to his demise—corruption, cronyism, and inequality—still remain, H.A. Hellyer writes in FP.
A Turkish town underwater. The 12,000-year-old town of Hasankeyf in southeast Turkey is slowly disappearing as rising waters from a giant dam project—approved by the government in 1997—encroach. After years of being held up, the dam started filling last July. The dam will eventually uproot nearly 80,000 people and could affect water supplies in neighboring Iraq.
Indigenous activism under fire. A Costa Rican indigenous leader, Yehry Rivera, was shot and killed during a violent land dispute in the south of the country on Tuesday. The confrontation came during an attempt to expel landholders occupying land granted to indigenous groups by law. Rivera is the second indigenous activist killed in Costa Rica within a year.
Odds and Ends
Scotland’s government will become the first in the world to make sanitary products free for all women, after the Scottish parliament approved a $31.2 million plan that will make tampons and pads available in public spaces such as community centers and pharmacies. The legislation will now move to a second stage, with members of parliament proposing amendments. Scotland already offers free sanitary products in schools and universities.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-25--With Taliban Talks Soon to Start, Afghan Government Splits Apart

With Taliban Talks Soon to Start , Afghan Government Splits Apart The Afghan government may be proving to be its own worst enemy on the eve of U.S.-orchestrated peace talks with the Taliban , with Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah rejecting the results of the recent election that gave a thin victory to President Ashraf Ghani and declaring that he would form his own “ inclusive government.
” Many Afghans worry that the election dispute plays right into the hands of the Taliban insurgents , who this month agreed with U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad to initiate peace negotiations in March , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Taliban have rejected the legitimacy of the current Kabul government , describing it as a “ puppet regime ” they will not negotiate with ; instead the Islamist militant group agreed to hold talks with “ intra-Afghan ” factions , as a statement from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo put it .
Ironically , until recently it was the government that regularly portrayed the Taliban as a nonunified movement it was unable to negotiate with .
But now it is Kabul that seems more split than ever before .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to find a solution .
Inner problems between these politicians affect all of us .
They cast a poor light on all Afghans , and this needs to stop , ” Muneer Ahmad Niazi , a university lecturer from Kabul , told my colleague Abdul Rahman Lakanwal , a journalist based in the capital .
“ We need a government that represents all people.
” Over the last several days , Abdullah , rejecting the claim of victory by Ghani , barred electoral officials from traveling out of the country and nominated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the north of the country , Sar-e-Pul and Jawzjan .
“ Our team is the winner of the election based on clean votes , and we announce our victory and the formation of an inclusive government , ” Abdullah said .
He also described the election outcome as “ national treason , ” “ illegal , ” and “ a coup against democracy.
” Reportedly , Abdullah is even willing to take an oath of office as president of his parallel government .
“ We as the Afghan people have to stand together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held high .
It ’ s the enemy that will profit from this crisis , ” said Mohammad Hanif , a medic from Kabul .
Abdullah is backed by political figures such as Abdul Rashid Dostum , a warlord who until recently was Ghani ’ s official vice president ( although he had no real power and even left the country after accusations of rape ) .
But before the election tally was released , Dostum criticized the government in a speech and claimed that he would not accept any “ fraudulent results.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ intra-Afghan talks among all kinds of political factions are back on the table .
Or at least the Taliban will argue for that , many Afghans worry .
“ Unfortunately , some people are not satisfied with the results .
I understand that , but a lot of them also just look for their personal benefits .
We as the Afghan people have to stand together to face our enemies with our heads held high .
It ’ s the enemy that will profit from this crisis , ” said Mohammad Hanif , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem is an abiding one ; this is the third presidential election in row in which Abdullah has refused to accept the official results and accused his opponent of fraud .
In 2009 , Abdullah lost against former President Hamid Karzai .
In 2014 , it was Ghani who beat Abdullah after a runoff .
In the end , then-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had to intervene several times personally to reconcile the opponents .
Until today , many government critics believe that it was not the vote of the Afghan people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s decision .
At the moment , Khalilzad may be taking up that role .
After he arrived in Kabul , the U.S. envoy met with several members from both government camps and is busy with what some observers described as a “ second peace process.
” Reuters on Monday reported that Khalilzad is asking Ghani to delay his planned inauguration to a second five-year term because of the dispute , but with many Afghans deeply worried about a Taliban takeover of the country once again , Abdullah is also facing rising criticism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what [ Abdullah ] is doing .
I believe it ’ s against the law .
He can ’ t nominate officials and build his own government .
He doesn ’ t even have a budget , ” said Ahmad Fawad , who is deployed as a government official in Kabul .
Others share his opinion .
“ All candidates have to accept the results .
The ongoing peace efforts must not be undermined , ” said Mohammad Karim Afghan , a local civic activist .
“ All candidates have to accept the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be undermined , ” said Mohammad Karim Afghan , a local civic activist .
Part of the election dispute goes back to ethnicity .
While Ghani is considered the preferable candidate of the majority Pashtuns , Abdullah is seen as the first choice for non-Pashtuns , such as Tajiks , Uzbeks , and others .
At times both candidates have sought to portray themselves as transcending ethnic lines—even as they also identified with specific ethnic groups when they believed that they could benefit from it .
For example , Abdullah ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tajik regions such as Panjshir , he portrays himself more as a Tajik , while in Pashtun regions like Kandahar , where his father is from , he presents himself as a Pashtun .
Ghani ’ s background is Pashtun , and he explicitly played the “ Pashtun card ” during the 2014 elections when he added his tribal name “ Ahmadzai ” and then dropped it after he won .
As Abdullah makes his move , political trouble is bubbling up especially in the province of Khost , which lies in Afghanistan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ border and is largely Pashtun .
According to official numbers from Afghanistan ’ s Independent Election Commission ( IEC ) , the total majority of voters in Khost—96 percent—elected Ghani .
Unsurprisingly , many are not happy with Abdullah , according to Mohammad Zaman , a local journalist .
“ Many people here welcomed the announcement of the election results .
Now , we need to go forward .
Those who lost should stop complaining , ” said Mohammad Omar , a resident of Khost city .
Still , election observers say Abdullah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reason to question the official results .
“ There is strong evidence that the IEC and the government were involved in voter suppression , ” said Thomas H. Johnson , the director of the Program for Culture and Conflict Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey , California .
According to Johnson , who is going to publish a detailed report about “ Ghani ’ s fraud , ” as he describes it , large parts of the election process took place in Ghani ’ s favor .
“ An assessment of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election almost exclusively took place in Abdullah strongholds and was based on 2014 voting results .
This accounted for the suppression of nearly 200,000 votes and suggests that explicit voter disenfranchisement of Abdullah ’ s supporters was well thought out and calculated before the election took place , ” Johnson said .
Johnson and other critics say the whole election process should be scrutinized .
At the time of the election , Afghanistan had 9.7 million registered voters , according to the IEC , but only 1.9 million of these voters—20 percent—exercised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 100,000 of the registered voters , approximately 1 percent , were found invalid .
For these and other reasons , the Taliban may find themselves on more solid ground than the Americans thought when they insist on meeting with representatives other than those from the official government .

The Afghan government may be proving to be its own worst enemy on the eve of U.S.-orchestrated peace talks with the Taliban, with Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah rejecting the results of the recent election that gave a thin victory to President Ashraf Ghani and declaring that he would form his own “inclusive government.”
The Afghan government may be proving to be its own worst enemy on the eve of U.S.-orchestrated peace talks with the Taliban, with Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah rejecting the results of the recent election that gave a thin victory to President Ashraf Ghani and declaring that he would form his own “inclusive government.”
Many Afghans worry that the election dispute plays right into the hands of the Taliban insurgents, who this month agreed with U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad to initiate peace negotiations in March, following a seven-day truce that began Saturday. The Taliban have rejected the legitimacy of the current Kabul government, describing it as a “puppet regime” they will not negotiate with; instead the Islamist militant group agreed to hold talks with “intra-Afghan” factions, as a statement from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo put it.
Ironically, until recently it was the government that regularly portrayed the Taliban as a nonunified movement it was unable to negotiate with. But now it is Kabul that seems more split than ever before.
“Instead of fighting each other, they need to find a solution. Inner problems between these politicians affect all of us. They cast a poor light on all Afghans, and this needs to stop,” Muneer Ahmad Niazi, a university lecturer from Kabul, told my colleague Abdul Rahman Lakanwal, a journalist based in the capital. “We need a government that represents all people.”
Over the last several days, Abdullah, rejecting the claim of victory by Ghani, barred electoral officials from traveling out of the country and nominated officials and governors in two provinces in the north of the country, Sar-e-Pul and Jawzjan. “Our team is the winner of the election based on clean votes, and we announce our victory and the formation of an inclusive government,” Abdullah said. He also described the election outcome as “national treason,” “illegal,” and “a coup against democracy.”
Reportedly, Abdullah is even willing to take an oath of office as president of his parallel government.
“We as the Afghan people have to stand together to face our enemies with our heads held high. It’s the enemy that will profit from this crisis,” said Mohammad Hanif, a medic from Kabul.
Abdullah is backed by political figures such as Abdul Rashid Dostum, a warlord who until recently was Ghani’s official vice president (although he had no real power and even left the country after accusations of rape). But before the election tally was released, Dostum criticized the government in a speech and claimed that he would not accept any “fraudulent results.”
With the government in turmoil, intra-Afghan talks among all kinds of political factions are back on the table. Or at least the Taliban will argue for that, many Afghans worry. “Unfortunately, some people are not satisfied with the results. I understand that, but a lot of them also just look for their personal benefits. We as the Afghan people have to stand together to face our enemies with our heads held high. It’s the enemy that will profit from this crisis,” said Mohammad Hanif, a medic from Kabul.
The legitimacy problem is an abiding one; this is the third presidential election in row in which Abdullah has refused to accept the official results and accused his opponent of fraud. In 2009, Abdullah lost against former President Hamid Karzai. In 2014, it was Ghani who beat Abdullah after a runoff. In the end, then-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had to intervene several times personally to reconcile the opponents. Until today, many government critics believe that it was not the vote of the Afghan people that made Ghani president but Kerry’s decision.
At the moment, Khalilzad may be taking up that role. After he arrived in Kabul, the U.S. envoy met with several members from both government camps and is busy with what some observers described as a “second peace process.” Reuters on Monday reported that Khalilzad is asking Ghani to delay his planned inauguration to a second five-year term because of the dispute, but with many Afghans deeply worried about a Taliban takeover of the country once again, Abdullah is also facing rising criticism.
Left: Ahmad Fawad, a local government official, in Kabul on Feb. 23. Right: Mohammed Karim Afghan, a local activist, in Khost on Feb. 22.
“I don’t accept what [Abdullah] is doing. I believe it’s against the law. He can’t nominate officials and build his own government. He doesn’t even have a budget,” said Ahmad Fawad, who is deployed as a government official in Kabul. Others share his opinion. “All candidates have to accept the results. The ongoing peace efforts must not be undermined,” said Mohammad Karim Afghan, a local civic activist.
“All candidates have to accept the results. The ongoing peace efforts must not be undermined,” said Mohammad Karim Afghan, a local civic activist.
Part of the election dispute goes back to ethnicity. While Ghani is considered the preferable candidate of the majority Pashtuns, Abdullah is seen as the first choice for non-Pashtuns, such as Tajiks, Uzbeks, and others. At times both candidates have sought to portray themselves as transcending ethnic lines—even as they also identified with specific ethnic groups when they believed that they could benefit from it. For example, Abdullah’s ethnic background is Pashtun-Tajik, but in Tajik regions such as Panjshir, he portrays himself more as a Tajik, while in Pashtun regions like Kandahar, where his father is from, he presents himself as a Pashtun. Ghani’s background is Pashtun, and he explicitly played the “Pashtun card” during the 2014 elections when he added his tribal name “Ahmadzai” and then dropped it after he won.
As Abdullah makes his move, political trouble is bubbling up especially in the province of Khost, which lies in Afghanistan’s southeast close to the Pakistani border and is largely Pashtun. According to official numbers from Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC), the total majority of voters in Khost—96 percent—elected Ghani. Unsurprisingly, many are not happy with Abdullah, according to Mohammad Zaman, a local journalist. “Many people here welcomed the announcement of the election results. Now, we need to go forward. Those who lost should stop complaining,” said Mohammad Omar, a resident of Khost city.
Still, election observers say Abdullah may have a point: There is reason to question the official results. “There is strong evidence that the IEC and the government were involved in voter suppression,” said Thomas H. Johnson, the director of the Program for Culture and Conflict Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. According to Johnson, who is going to publish a detailed report about “Ghani’s fraud,” as he describes it, large parts of the election process took place in Ghani’s favor.
“An assessment of the polling places that were closed before the election almost exclusively took place in Abdullah strongholds and was based on 2014 voting results. This accounted for the suppression of nearly 200,000 votes and suggests that explicit voter disenfranchisement of Abdullah’s supporters was well thought out and calculated before the election took place,” Johnson said.
Johnson and other critics say the whole election process should be scrutinized. At the time of the election, Afghanistan had 9.7 million registered voters, according to the IEC, but only 1.9 million of these voters—20 percent—exercised their right to vote, and more than 100,000 of the registered voters, approximately 1 percent, were found invalid.
For these and other reasons, the Taliban may find themselves on more solid ground than the Americans thought when they insist on meeting with representatives other than those from the official government.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-25--How to Prepare for a Coronavirus Lockdown

How to Prepare for a Coronavirus Lockdown You ’ re stuck at home .
You ’ ve been at home for three weeks , with only one of your household allowed out every two days to make a trip to the supermarket through empty streets .
The number of infected people near you keeps going up .
You miss the gym .
You even miss the office .
It ’ s an experience that has already become drearily familiar to hundreds of millions of people in China—and one that could be heading the rest of the world ’ s way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very few places outside of the Chinese mainland have seen real outbreaks of the coronavirus so far , but the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is already warning that the virus ’ s spread in the United States is “ inevitable.
” While draconian measures of the Chinese scale may not play in democracies , South Korea has already implemented voluntary restrictions , and Italy has put a cordon sanitaire around infected towns .
Even if you ’ re not sealed into a residential compound as many Chinese families have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no-go zones , with offices , factories , and schools shuttered .
So how can you best prepare for weeks of being cut off from the world ?
Here are some tips from those who have already been through it in China as to how to psychologically survive quarantine .
This isn ’ t preparation for apocalypse—it ’ s readying yourself for a stressful and highly inconvenient but temporary experience , concentrating on the psychological experience more than the health side .
( For that , read Laurie Garrett ’ s essential piece @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Runs on masks have already occurred in many countries , but factories are revving up to meet demand .
Buy masks , hand sanitizer , bleach , and gloves—as well as a month , minimum , of any vital household medications .
( It ’ s not clear how much masks actually help outside , but appearing without one in a public space can draw the attention of authorities or public disapproval . )
Stock up on painkillers and decongestants .
Avoid medications that suppress the immune system , such as prednisone .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pneumonia developing ; try to give them up as much as you can .
Food shortages have not been a key issue in China , but it can ’ t hurt to stock a month of nonperishable food .
Soups are particularly recommended for variety and ease of preparation if sick , as well as the comfort value .
Water is unlikely to be critical , but if you live somewhere without a drinkable tap supply , stock up on a month of bottled water , too .
Fresh fruit and vegetables are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so buy vitamin tablets , especially a strong supply of vitamin C. The main worry in China for most people hasn ’ t been running out of food or water—which government agencies prioritize supplying .
It has been a lack of other household necessities , especially things like toothpaste and shampoo .
“ Don ’ t worry about the stuff you would get from the supermarket , ” commented one British national under lockdown in China .
“ Worry about the things you ’ d get from the 7/11 at 10 p.m. ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Italy have also stripped shelves bare of toilet paper , where the supply chain is particularly vulnerable .
If you have animals at home , pet food and fresh litter are essential .
Several quarantined people mentioned really missing treats—especially feeling an overwhelming longing for a particular snack—and suggested stocking up on chocolate and candy .
( My father once got himself caught outside in a typhoon in Hong Kong due to his overwhelming desire for a packet of Garibaldi biscuits .
Don ’ t go that far . )
3 .
Don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The lockdown has been particularly devastating in China for the tens of millions of people who were visiting family during the Lunar New Year and have ended up stranded for weeks far from their own homes .
Some migrant workers were left homeless , caught in the middle of travel when the quarantines came down and forced onto the streets .
Other people have been forced to rely on the generosity of friends or strangers .
Foreigners have often had to apply for special permission to extend visas .
Minimize nonessential travel , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus continues—and take extra luggage ( and emergency cash ) to prepare for the possibility of being stuck abroad for weeks longer than expected .
Small and medium-sized businesses in China are on the edge of collapse .
And while firms have been paying out salaries—under pressure from the government—even to those who can ’ t work , many people in the gig economy have been out of luck .
Start thinking now about what a month of no or reduced income would mean to you—and preparing to move as much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That goes double if your business depends on public spaces , especially restaurants .
“ For me , it began as a panic , with a giddy Joker/Masque of the Red Death vision of everyone dying .
That passed into resentment and anger about the restrictions on movement and gatherings .
And that faded to boredom but then to a sort of comfort with the new routines , ” said Adam Robbins , an American locked down in Shenzhen .
That emotional rollercoaster has been shared by a lot of people , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I have severe anxiety and depression , ” commented another foreigner , who asked for anonymity .
“ Fortunately , I had medication , but it was the worst possible conditions .
Thankfully , my therapist offers online sessions.
” Everybody I talked to spoke of the importance of building new routines—both for hygiene purposes against the virus and for psychological survival .
“ It ’ s important to have a lot of routines that run parallel to the dystopian routine of dealing with the disease , ” advised Matthew Stinson , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ praised video games , with their addictive and time-killing properties , and board games that could be played with two people or with children .
Cooking , looking after plants , and pets have also proved lifesavers—one suggestion was to start a garden of microgreens .
If you don ’ t already , make sure you can bank , shop , work , and educate your kids online as much as possible .
China has already switched to online classes .
Arrange to see friends for online activities , whether games or just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in China have suffered severe overload as a result of user numbers exploding .
Natural homebodies have an easier time with the lockdown than exercise enthusiasts—especially with gyms closed and running impossible .
Build an exercise area at home if you have the space ; shift forward buying that elliptical or exercise bike you ’ ve been thinking of getting .
6 .
Get ready for a lot of time with the kids “ Don ’ t have kids ” was the blunt advice offered by one Chinese husband , who has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ son in a one-bedroom apartment since late January .
If you ’ ve already failed to heed that warning , make the same kinds of preparations you would for a long journey with small children .
A really , really , really long journey .
Parents advised , in particular , clearing a space for physical exercise and doing regular games—not just to alleviate boredom but to tire them out .
Lyman Stone , an American dealing with children stuck at home thanks to the school closures in Hong Kong , had particularly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find sunlight .
If you can leave the building and play in a common space do it .
If you can go to a park do it .
If you can only sit on a balcony do that.
” He also recommended “ unusual lessons .
Give your kids lessons in things you love but that aren ’ t school curriculum , ” such as singing or cooking .
Even if you ’ re not under quarantine , school closures are one of the most likely effects of the virus spreading .
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with adults but even more intense .
“ There ’ s a lot of temper tantrums , even from the 16-year-olds , ” one weary parent said .
And if you don ’ t have kids—don ’ t expect any fun adult pastimes .
As one woman confessed , “ There is nothing less sexy than being stuck in a one-room apartment with your partner for a month .
”

You’re stuck at home. You’ve been at home for three weeks, with only one of your household allowed out every two days to make a trip to the supermarket through empty streets. The number of infected people near you keeps going up. You miss the gym. You even miss the office.
You’re stuck at home. You’ve been at home for three weeks, with only one of your household allowed out every two days to make a trip to the supermarket through empty streets. The number of infected people near you keeps going up. You miss the gym. You even miss the office.
It’s an experience that has already become drearily familiar to hundreds of millions of people in China—and one that could be heading the rest of the world’s way very soon. To be sure, very few places outside of the Chinese mainland have seen real outbreaks of the coronavirus so far, but the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is already warning that the virus’s spread in the United States is “inevitable.”
While draconian measures of the Chinese scale may not play in democracies, South Korea has already implemented voluntary restrictions, and Italy has put a cordon sanitaire around infected towns. Even if you’re not sealed into a residential compound as many Chinese families have been, public spaces may become de facto no-go zones, with offices, factories, and schools shuttered.
So how can you best prepare for weeks of being cut off from the world? Here are some tips from those who have already been through it in China as to how to psychologically survive quarantine. This isn’t preparation for apocalypse—it’s readying yourself for a stressful and highly inconvenient but temporary experience, concentrating on the psychological experience more than the health side. (For that, read Laurie Garrett’s essential piece on how to stay safe.)
Get the latest coronavirus epidemic coverage from Foreign Policy in your inbox. Sign up now to receive Editors' Picks, a curated selection of FP's must-read stories. Delivered daily. Enter your email By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. Sign Up ✓ Signed Up
1. Prepare the essentials
Runs on masks have already occurred in many countries, but factories are revving up to meet demand. Buy masks, hand sanitizer, bleach, and gloves—as well as a month, minimum, of any vital household medications. (It’s not clear how much masks actually help outside, but appearing without one in a public space can draw the attention of authorities or public disapproval.) Stock up on painkillers and decongestants. Avoid medications that suppress the immune system, such as prednisone. Smoking and drinking worsen the chance of pneumonia developing; try to give them up as much as you can.
Food shortages have not been a key issue in China, but it can’t hurt to stock a month of nonperishable food. Soups are particularly recommended for variety and ease of preparation if sick, as well as the comfort value. Water is unlikely to be critical, but if you live somewhere without a drinkable tap supply, stock up on a month of bottled water, too. Fresh fruit and vegetables are often the hardest things to get, so buy vitamin tablets, especially a strong supply of vitamin C.
2. All the essentials
The main worry in China for most people hasn’t been running out of food or water—which government agencies prioritize supplying. It has been a lack of other household necessities, especially things like toothpaste and shampoo. “Don’t worry about the stuff you would get from the supermarket,” commented one British national under lockdown in China. “Worry about the things you’d get from the 7/11 at 10 p.m.” Runs on goods in Hong Kong and Italy have also stripped shelves bare of toilet paper, where the supply chain is particularly vulnerable. If you have animals at home, pet food and fresh litter are essential.
Several quarantined people mentioned really missing treats—especially feeling an overwhelming longing for a particular snack—and suggested stocking up on chocolate and candy. (My father once got himself caught outside in a typhoon in Hong Kong due to his overwhelming desire for a packet of Garibaldi biscuits. Don’t go that far.)
3. Don’t get caught out of place
The lockdown has been particularly devastating in China for the tens of millions of people who were visiting family during the Lunar New Year and have ended up stranded for weeks far from their own homes. Some migrant workers were left homeless, caught in the middle of travel when the quarantines came down and forced onto the streets. Other people have been forced to rely on the generosity of friends or strangers.
Foreigners have often had to apply for special permission to extend visas. Minimize nonessential travel, especially across borders, if the spread of the virus continues—and take extra luggage (and emergency cash) to prepare for the possibility of being stuck abroad for weeks longer than expected.
4. Prepare financially
Small and medium-sized businesses in China are on the edge of collapse. And while firms have been paying out salaries—under pressure from the government—even to those who can’t work, many people in the gig economy have been out of luck. Start thinking now about what a month of no or reduced income would mean to you—and preparing to move as much of your work life online as possible. That goes double if your business depends on public spaces, especially restaurants.
5. Build routines and a life online
“For me, it began as a panic, with a giddy Joker/Masque of the Red Death vision of everyone dying. That passed into resentment and anger about the restrictions on movement and gatherings. And that faded to boredom but then to a sort of comfort with the new routines,” said Adam Robbins, an American locked down in Shenzhen. That emotional rollercoaster has been shared by a lot of people, some more severely stricken than others. “I have severe anxiety and depression,” commented another foreigner, who asked for anonymity. “Fortunately, I had medication, but it was the worst possible conditions. Thankfully, my therapist offers online sessions.”
Everybody I talked to spoke of the importance of building new routines—both for hygiene purposes against the virus and for psychological survival. “It’s important to have a lot of routines that run parallel to the dystopian routine of dealing with the disease,” advised Matthew Stinson, under lockdown in Tianjin. Many people praised video games, with their addictive and time-killing properties, and board games that could be played with two people or with children. Cooking, looking after plants, and pets have also proved lifesavers—one suggestion was to start a garden of microgreens.
If you don’t already, make sure you can bank, shop, work, and educate your kids online as much as possible. China has already switched to online classes. Arrange to see friends for online activities, whether games or just chatting. Be prepared, though—online services in China have suffered severe overload as a result of user numbers exploding.
Natural homebodies have an easier time with the lockdown than exercise enthusiasts—especially with gyms closed and running impossible. Build an exercise area at home if you have the space; shift forward buying that elliptical or exercise bike you’ve been thinking of getting.
6. Get ready for a lot of time with the kids
“Don’t have kids” was the blunt advice offered by one Chinese husband, who has been under lockdown with his wife and 2-year-old son in a one-bedroom apartment since late January. If you’ve already failed to heed that warning, make the same kinds of preparations you would for a long journey with small children. A really, really, really long journey. Parents advised, in particular, clearing a space for physical exercise and doing regular games—not just to alleviate boredom but to tire them out.
Lyman Stone, an American dealing with children stuck at home thanks to the school closures in Hong Kong, had particularly good advice. “Major recommendation: find sunlight. If you can leave the building and play in a common space do it. If you can go to a park do it. If you can only sit on a balcony do that.” He also recommended “unusual lessons. Give your kids lessons in things you love but that aren’t school curriculum,” such as singing or cooking.
Even if you’re not under quarantine, school closures are one of the most likely effects of the virus spreading. With teenagers, expect the same issues as with adults but even more intense. “There’s a lot of temper tantrums, even from the 16-year-olds,” one weary parent said. And if you don’t have kids—don’t expect any fun adult pastimes. As one woman confessed, “There is nothing less sexy than being stuck in a one-room apartment with your partner for a month.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-25--The Coronavirus Could Finally Kill the Wild Animal Trade

The Coronavirus Could Finally Kill the Wild Animal Trade Ebola .
Anthrax .
Bubonic plague .
HIV .
SARS .
Coronavirus .
You may not be familiar with the term “ zoonotic , ” but these nightmarish examples fall into that category .
Zoonotic diseases are the kinds that can jump the species barrier , and can be particularly dangerous to humans because our immune systems don ’ t yet know how to fight them .
The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan , for example , probably originates from wild bats , but it ’ s not yet clear which creature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Confiscated samples of pangolin , a critically endangered mammal hunted for use in traditional Chinese medicine , have tested positive for similar strains .
Whether or not the intermediary turns out to be a rare , exotic species or a more mundane one such as pigs , one thing is clear : The greater the variety of animals in the same small space , the more pathways there are for diseases to spread and mutate .
This is alarming because the risk of zoonotic disease is rising exponentially .
Three-quarters of new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The past century has seen ever-expanding human encroachment into natural habitats , exposing people and livestock to more varieties of wild animal than ever before—and with this contact , any bacteria and viruses they carry .
“ The more we hunt wildlife , the more we come in contact with new environments and the more we increase the likelihood of us being exposed to these viruses , ” explained Peter Ben Embarek of the World Health Organization ’ s International Food Safety Authorities Network .
“ It ’ s clear that poaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s totally unacceptable .
I think everybody in all authorities of the world are in agreement with that.
” This is easier said than done .
Wildlife trafficking rakes in up to $ 26 billion per year , helping to make environmental crime one of the four most profitable illegal industries in the world .
Chinese demand drives the trade , especially when it comes to rare animal parts like tiger bone , rhinoceros horn , and pangolin scales , all of which are used in traditional Chinese medicine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials from serving shark fin soup and dishes containing wild animals in 2013 , it was de rigueur to serve these exotic meats at lavish banquets in China .
( Xi acted not out of ecological concern , but as part of a drive to crack down on the appearance of corruption . )
Wet markets offering wild meat remained common in China until being shut in the aftermath of the outbreak , while rich tourists continued to travel to places outside Beijing ’ s direct control , such as the Golden Triangle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Thailand , Laos , and Myanmar ( and run by Kings Roman Group , a Hong Kong corporation ) , where markets openly sell elephant ivory and tiger skins , and critically endangered animals are on the menu .
The expense and perceived machismo of such dishes made them particularly attractive to modern China ’ s culture of conspicuous consumption .
This is alarming because the risk of zoonotic disease is rising exponentially .
In the past , the popularity of wildlife products made the Chinese government reluctant to clamp down on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the wake of the SARS outbreak , Beijing lifted a ban on sales of palm civets and 53 other species after just four months , only to backtrack when another man in Guangdong contracted the virus in December 2003 , and order the destruction of 10,000 civet cats , badgers , raccoon dogs , rats , and cockroaches .
The trade temporarily became more covert , but over time it has crept back into the open—and while the import and sale of endangered animals from the wild is illegal , sourcing them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time around , Beijing has fast-tracked a blanket ban on breeding and consuming wildlife products , but whether it lasts remains to be seen .
“ I think there will be a period of one or two years where the wildlife trade gets suppressed because of [ coronavirus ] , because people are concerned about it , they don ’ t know whether it ’ s legal or not—and the risk of disease , ” said Peter Daszak , president of EcoHealth Alliance .
“ But it will come back , because some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the culture.
” In other words , conservationists have only a small window of time while these fears are still fresh in people ’ s minds to emphasize the link between the risk of a pandemic and buying and consuming rare wildlife .
If they miss the chance , they will struggle to regain momentum .
For decades , environmental campaigners , academics , and policymakers have been at a loss to find the right narrative to end the trade .
Highlighting animal cruelty and the destruction of ecosystems resonates with horrified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buyers .
“ We ’ ve known about the conservation issues for 50 years .
It ’ s never closed a market , ” said Daszak .
“ The one thing that ’ s ever closed a market is the emergence of a pandemic : SARS .
And now this one.
” Meanwhile , as Vanda Felbab-Brown , author of The Extinction Market , has explained , prohibition alone pushes the trade underground and encourages traffickers to adopt the mindset of smugglers of illicit goods everywhere .
As a result , not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are killed in order to offset the cost of seizures .
Fear of prosecution fails to dissuade desperate poachers who need to feed their families in corners of the world where decent jobs are scarce .
Legal farming of endangered animals such as tigers spreads confusion among customers about what is and isn ’ t legal , and is too poorly regulated to mitigate the risk of cross-infection .
The civet cats that carried SARS came from farms , not the wild .
A more recent shift in policy has seen the illegal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime phenomenon linked to terrorism financing .
This angle attracts international attention and funding but encourages governments to take a military and law-enforcement approach that fails to address the root causes of the trade .
As Rosaleen Duffy , a wildlife trafficking expert at Sheffield University , put it : “ I don ’ t see the War on Drugs as having worked at all .
So why we think a War on Poachers or a War on the Wildlife Trade will work , I don ’ t know.
” Ultimately , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the trade will persist .
“ If there is a demand then the supply will find a way to satisfy that demand , ” said Ben Embarek .
“ It ’ s not just a matter of banning the trade of wildlife in markets .
We also have to convince customers and people going to markets that it ’ s not appropriate .
It ’ s not a good thing to consume and buy wildlife as food.
” In the long term , the illegal wildlife trade may peter out .
Research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ older generations , younger people in China aren ’ t interested in eating wildlife .
The trouble is that we don ’ t have time to wait around to find out .
“ I ’ m sure in 50 years there will be very , very few people in Asia eating wildlife , ” said Daszuk .
“ But this period of 50 years as it disappears is a very dangerous one for the planet.
” The other problem is that it may just be that young people don ’ t have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drives this kind of consumption .
But if such dishes can become associated more with pettiness and cruelty than power and success , change might be possible .
So far , as a species , we ’ ve been lucky .
Widespread availability of antibiotics means that , today , even an aggressive and highly contagious bacterial infection such as bubonic plague could be nipped in the bud .
Viruses are harder to manage , but to date the most dangerous outbreaks have begun either in countries that are relatively equipped to contain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in places disconnected from major global transport hubs , such as rural Guinea .
It ’ s only a matter of time , though , until a zoonotic disease emerges that spreads too far and too soon for us to prevent it becoming a global pandemic .
The World Health Organization describes this as “ Disease X.
” Daszak called it “ a mathematical certainty.
” The coronavirus is looking like a worrying possibility for that , especially after simultaneous outbreaks in Iran , South Korea , and Italy in the past few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diseases have emerged and died out in the past , flickering briefly in isolated villages in the jungles or mountains .
But that was in a less connected era .
After all , an estimated 40 million commercial flights per year help transport emerging diseases to and from every corner of the planet at breakneck speed—and place wealthy , frequent-flier countries at high risk of an outbreak .
“ Maybe now ’ s the time to rethink our relationship with wildlife and leave them in the forests where they belong .
Then we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Daszak said .
“ Bottom line : eating wildlife is bad for your health .
That ’ s the message that ’ s got to get out .
”

Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern

Ebola. Anthrax. Bubonic plague. HIV. SARS. Coronavirus. You may not be familiar with the term “zoonotic,” but these nightmarish examples fall into that category. Zoonotic diseases are the kinds that can jump the species barrier, and can be particularly dangerous to humans because our immune systems don’t yet know how to fight them.
Ebola. Anthrax. Bubonic plague. HIV. SARS. Coronavirus. You may not be familiar with the term “zoonotic,” but these nightmarish examples fall into that category. Zoonotic diseases are the kinds that can jump the species barrier, and can be particularly dangerous to humans because our immune systems don’t yet know how to fight them.
The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, for example, probably originates from wild bats, but it’s not yet clear which creature was the intermediary between them and humans. Confiscated samples of pangolin, a critically endangered mammal hunted for use in traditional Chinese medicine, have tested positive for similar strains. Whether or not the intermediary turns out to be a rare, exotic species or a more mundane one such as pigs, one thing is clear: The greater the variety of animals in the same small space, the more pathways there are for diseases to spread and mutate.
This is alarming because the risk of zoonotic disease is rising exponentially. Three-quarters of new diseases in humans are transmitted from animals. The past century has seen ever-expanding human encroachment into natural habitats, exposing people and livestock to more varieties of wild animal than ever before—and with this contact, any bacteria and viruses they carry.
Get the latest coronavirus epidemic coverage from Foreign Policy in your inbox. Sign up now to receive Editors' Picks, a curated selection of FP's must-read stories. Delivered daily. Enter your email By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. Sign Up ✓ Signed Up
“The more we hunt wildlife, the more we come in contact with new environments and the more we increase the likelihood of us being exposed to these viruses,” explained Peter Ben Embarek of the World Health Organization’s International Food Safety Authorities Network. “It’s clear that poaching and hunting endangered species has to stop. It’s totally unacceptable. I think everybody in all authorities of the world are in agreement with that.”
This is easier said than done. Wildlife trafficking rakes in up to $26 billion per year, helping to make environmental crime one of the four most profitable illegal industries in the world. Chinese demand drives the trade, especially when it comes to rare animal parts like tiger bone, rhinoceros horn, and pangolin scales, all of which are used in traditional Chinese medicine. Until Chinese President Xi Jinping banned public officials from serving shark fin soup and dishes containing wild animals in 2013, it was de rigueur to serve these exotic meats at lavish banquets in China. (Xi acted not out of ecological concern, but as part of a drive to crack down on the appearance of corruption.) Wet markets offering wild meat remained common in China until being shut in the aftermath of the outbreak, while rich tourists continued to travel to places outside Beijing’s direct control, such as the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone situated on the border of Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar (and run by Kings Roman Group, a Hong Kong corporation), where markets openly sell elephant ivory and tiger skins, and critically endangered animals are on the menu. The expense and perceived machismo of such dishes made them particularly attractive to modern China’s culture of conspicuous consumption.
This is alarming because the risk of zoonotic disease is rising exponentially.
In the past, the popularity of wildlife products made the Chinese government reluctant to clamp down on the trade. Back in 2003, in the wake of the SARS outbreak, Beijing lifted a ban on sales of palm civets and 53 other species after just four months, only to backtrack when another man in Guangdong contracted the virus in December 2003, and order the destruction of 10,000 civet cats, badgers, raccoon dogs, rats, and cockroaches. The trade temporarily became more covert, but over time it has crept back into the open—and while the import and sale of endangered animals from the wild is illegal, sourcing them from breeding farms is not. This time around, Beijing has fast-tracked a blanket ban on breeding and consuming wildlife products, but whether it lasts remains to be seen.
“I think there will be a period of one or two years where the wildlife trade gets suppressed because of [coronavirus], because people are concerned about it, they don’t know whether it’s legal or not—and the risk of disease,” said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance. “But it will come back, because some of these meals are just so deep in the culture.”
In other words, conservationists have only a small window of time while these fears are still fresh in people’s minds to emphasize the link between the risk of a pandemic and buying and consuming rare wildlife.
If they miss the chance, they will struggle to regain momentum. For decades, environmental campaigners, academics, and policymakers have been at a loss to find the right narrative to end the trade. Highlighting animal cruelty and the destruction of ecosystems resonates with horrified onlookers but has failed to convince actual buyers. “We’ve known about the conservation issues for 50 years. It’s never closed a market,” said Daszak. “The one thing that’s ever closed a market is the emergence of a pandemic: SARS. And now this one.”
Meanwhile, as Vanda Felbab-Brown, author of The Extinction Market, has explained, prohibition alone pushes the trade underground and encourages traffickers to adopt the mindset of smugglers of illicit goods everywhere. As a result, not only do prices rise, but more animals are killed in order to offset the cost of seizures. Fear of prosecution fails to dissuade desperate poachers who need to feed their families in corners of the world where decent jobs are scarce. Legal farming of endangered animals such as tigers spreads confusion among customers about what is and isn’t legal, and is too poorly regulated to mitigate the risk of cross-infection. The civet cats that carried SARS came from farms, not the wild.
A more recent shift in policy has seen the illegal wildlife trade reframed as a serious organized crime phenomenon linked to terrorism financing. This angle attracts international attention and funding but encourages governments to take a military and law-enforcement approach that fails to address the root causes of the trade. As Rosaleen Duffy, a wildlife trafficking expert at Sheffield University, put it: “I don’t see the War on Drugs as having worked at all. So why we think a War on Poachers or a War on the Wildlife Trade will work, I don’t know.”
Ultimately, for as long as there are prospective buyers, the trade will persist. “If there is a demand then the supply will find a way to satisfy that demand,” said Ben Embarek. “It’s not just a matter of banning the trade of wildlife in markets. We also have to convince customers and people going to markets that it’s not appropriate. It’s not a good thing to consume and buy wildlife as food.”
In the long term, the illegal wildlife trade may peter out. Research by EcoHealth Alliance has found that unlike older generations, younger people in China aren’t interested in eating wildlife. The trouble is that we don’t have time to wait around to find out. “I’m sure in 50 years there will be very, very few people in Asia eating wildlife,” said Daszuk. “But this period of 50 years as it disappears is a very dangerous one for the planet.” The other problem is that it may just be that young people don’t have the money or the need for prestige that drives this kind of consumption. But if such dishes can become associated more with pettiness and cruelty than power and success, change might be possible.
So far, as a species, we’ve been lucky. Widespread availability of antibiotics means that, today, even an aggressive and highly contagious bacterial infection such as bubonic plague could be nipped in the bud. Viruses are harder to manage, but to date the most dangerous outbreaks have begun either in countries that are relatively equipped to contain them, such as China, or in places disconnected from major global transport hubs, such as rural Guinea.
It’s only a matter of time, though, until a zoonotic disease emerges that spreads too far and too soon for us to prevent it becoming a global pandemic. The World Health Organization describes this as “Disease X.” Daszak called it “a mathematical certainty.” The coronavirus is looking like a worrying possibility for that, especially after simultaneous outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, and Italy in the past few days.
To be sure, such diseases have emerged and died out in the past, flickering briefly in isolated villages in the jungles or mountains. But that was in a less connected era. After all, an estimated 40 million commercial flights per year help transport emerging diseases to and from every corner of the planet at breakneck speed—and place wealthy, frequent-flier countries at high risk of an outbreak.
“Maybe now’s the time to rethink our relationship with wildlife and leave them in the forests where they belong. Then we won’t get the viruses,” Daszak said. “Bottom line: eating wildlife is bad for your health. That’s the message that’s got to get out.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-25--World Stock Markets Begin Betting on a Coronavirus Slowdown

With two days of big declines so far this week , global stock markets appear to be pricing in a longer-term economic downturn from the coronavirus outbreak , which has now spread rapidly from the world ’ s second-largest economy , China , to the Middle East and Europe .
One sign is that as investors start to see real prospects of a global economic slowdown , they are looking for safe havens for their money , sending the yields on U.S. government bonds down to near-record lows ( and pushing up yields in recession-prone places like Italy and Greece @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bond yields are showing clear red flags , even more than they have flashed in recent months .
Yields remain inverted—meaning returns are higher for very short-term debt compared with 10-year bonds .
This is the reverse of the normal situation and a pretty reliable sign that there is a recession on the way .
The International Monetary Fund has so far only tweaked its outlook for China and the rest of the world this year due to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease now known as COVID-19 , with expectations that Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made up by the end of the year .
But some other forecasters fear that the knock-on effects of near-paralysis in China—coupled with disrupted supply chains , border closures , a slowdown in tourism and travel , and jitters about the resilience of emerging markets—could hammer the global economy just as hard-hit manufacturing countries and beleaguered consumers were showing signs of confidence .
Oxford Economics , for instance , now expects the virus to knock first-quarter Chinese growth down to just 3.8 percent and to only 5.4 percent for the whole year—a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of about 6 percent to meet its economic and political targets .
Globally , the impacts of the virus could drag global growth down to about 2.3 percent this year , the lowest level since the depths of the financial crisis , Oxford said .
Initially , many businesses , investors , and bankers expected the coronavirus outbreak to be similar to the 2003 eruption of SARS , if perhaps a bit more painful .
But now that the virus has spread to the Middle East and Europe—closing big chunks of Italy ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into Spain—the worry is that what began as a contained outbreak could turn into a pandemic , as the World Health Organization warned Monday .
“ Stock markets are finally starting to recognize the uncertainty ” after staying stubbornly resilient , said Jorge Sicilia , the chief economist of BBVA , the big Spanish bank .
The virus ’ s impact on China has been increasingly evident since last month , with a quarantine in Hubei province , where the outbreak began , matched by similar , often voluntary quarantines in many other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Year holiday , those restrictions have prevented millions of workers from getting back to their jobs , which in turn can mean lost paychecks for Chinese consumers , closed businesses , and disrupted supply chains with ripple effects all over the world .
While Apple , a tech firm heavily exposed to Chinese suppliers , rattled markets last week with a forecast sales decline , other less obvious companies are starting to feel the pinch .
Mastercard now says it will earn less than expected due to the decline in travel , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecasts due to lower Chinese consumption , and United Airlines gave up trying to offer financial guidance this year at all until the virus runs its course .
Asian countries like South Korea and Japan , which were already talking of economic emergency , are now bracing for even greater impacts .
In Japan , where stock markets were closed on Monday , jittery traders sent shares tumbling on Tuesday to make up for it ; meanwhile , the country is planning for more telework to avoid large gatherings and the spread of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hoped to start recovering its central place as a trading hub after months of protest-related disruption , instead saw exports drop off a cliff in January—even before the worst of the new coronavirus had become apparent .
But what ’ s new and now genuinely making markets worry is the apparent spread of the disease , which seemed as of a week ago largely under control .
Iran is now battling an outbreak of the coronavirus with an already decimated economy and with public mistrust of the government at fever pitch .
Travelers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to several other Middle Eastern countries , where experts fear fragile health systems could be overwhelmed if infection accelerates .
( Iran ’ s deputy health minister has contracted the virus . )
At the same time , fears of a global economic slowdown are driving down the price of crude oil to the low $ 50 range per barrel—bad news for oil-reliant government budgets in Iran , Iraq , Saudi Arabia , and other OPEC powerhouses in the region .
For Europe , the arrival of the coronavirus comes at a particularly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were starting to climb out of last year ’ s doldrums and showing signs of recovery .
The growing outbreak in Italy—including the first cases in Sicily—is just another dollop of bad news for an Italian economy struggling to get back to growth .
Travel restrictions in the area around Milan , the industrial center of Europe ’ s third-largest economy , are a kidney punch for an economy already grappling with the slowdown in Germany , a high debt load , an aging population , and endemic corruption .
Moody ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Italy into recession this quarter .
Spain , too , is bracing for additional fallout from the virus—which had earlier led to the cancellation of the high-profile , annual mobile phone congress in Barcelona—after nearly a thousand tourists were quarantined in a hotel in the Canary Islands due to fears of infection from an Italian traveler .
In weeks past , economists figured there would be only a minimal hit to growth in fragile European economies because the effects of a slowdown in China were so indirect .
Now , BBVA ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tally up potentially direct impacts—closed borders and hotels , quarantined cities , and shuttered factories .
“ We ’ re still in the early phases , but this doesn ’ t come at a good moment .
It ’ s going to hamstring the recovery a bit , ” Sicilia said .
“ If the outbreak extends , if there are travel restrictions , if people aren ’ t working—all that goes straight into lower GDP .
”

With two days of big declines so far this week, global stock markets appear to be pricing in a longer-term economic downturn from the coronavirus outbreak, which has now spread rapidly from the world’s second-largest economy, China, to the Middle East and Europe.
With two days of big declines so far this week, global stock markets appear to be pricing in a longer-term economic downturn from the coronavirus outbreak, which has now spread rapidly from the world’s second-largest economy, China, to the Middle East and Europe.
One sign is that as investors start to see real prospects of a global economic slowdown, they are looking for safe havens for their money, sending the yields on U.S. government bonds down to near-record lows (and pushing up yields in recession-prone places like Italy and Greece). More worrisome is that U.S. bond yields are showing clear red flags, even more than they have flashed in recent months. Yields remain inverted—meaning returns are higher for very short-term debt compared with 10-year bonds. This is the reverse of the normal situation and a pretty reliable sign that there is a recession on the way.
The International Monetary Fund has so far only tweaked its outlook for China and the rest of the world this year due to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease now known as COVID-19, with expectations that Chinese growth will suffer early and largely be made up by the end of the year. But some other forecasters fear that the knock-on effects of near-paralysis in China—coupled with disrupted supply chains, border closures, a slowdown in tourism and travel, and jitters about the resilience of emerging markets—could hammer the global economy just as hard-hit manufacturing countries and beleaguered consumers were showing signs of confidence.
Oxford Economics, for instance, now expects the virus to knock first-quarter Chinese growth down to just 3.8 percent and to only 5.4 percent for the whole year—a big drop for a country that needs growth of about 6 percent to meet its economic and political targets. Globally, the impacts of the virus could drag global growth down to about 2.3 percent this year, the lowest level since the depths of the financial crisis, Oxford said.
Initially, many businesses, investors, and bankers expected the coronavirus outbreak to be similar to the 2003 eruption of SARS, if perhaps a bit more painful. But now that the virus has spread to the Middle East and Europe—closing big chunks of Italy’s northern economic heartland and even spreading into Spain—the worry is that what began as a contained outbreak could turn into a pandemic, as the World Health Organization warned Monday.
“Stock markets are finally starting to recognize the uncertainty” after staying stubbornly resilient, said Jorge Sicilia, the chief economist of BBVA, the big Spanish bank.
The virus’s impact on China has been increasingly evident since last month, with a quarantine in Hubei province, where the outbreak began, matched by similar, often voluntary quarantines in many other cities. Together with the extended Lunar New Year holiday, those restrictions have prevented millions of workers from getting back to their jobs, which in turn can mean lost paychecks for Chinese consumers, closed businesses, and disrupted supply chains with ripple effects all over the world.
While Apple, a tech firm heavily exposed to Chinese suppliers, rattled markets last week with a forecast sales decline, other less obvious companies are starting to feel the pinch. Mastercard now says it will earn less than expected due to the decline in travel, the Australian vintner Treasury Wines downgraded its forecasts due to lower Chinese consumption, and United Airlines gave up trying to offer financial guidance this year at all until the virus runs its course.
Asian countries like South Korea and Japan, which were already talking of economic emergency, are now bracing for even greater impacts. In Japan, where stock markets were closed on Monday, jittery traders sent shares tumbling on Tuesday to make up for it; meanwhile, the country is planning for more telework to avoid large gatherings and the spread of the disease. Hong Kong, which hoped to start recovering its central place as a trading hub after months of protest-related disruption, instead saw exports drop off a cliff in January—even before the worst of the new coronavirus had become apparent.
But what’s new and now genuinely making markets worry is the apparent spread of the disease, which seemed as of a week ago largely under control. Iran is now battling an outbreak of the coronavirus with an already decimated economy and with public mistrust of the government at fever pitch. Travelers from Iran have now carried the virus to several other Middle Eastern countries, where experts fear fragile health systems could be overwhelmed if infection accelerates. (Iran’s deputy health minister has contracted the virus.)
At the same time, fears of a global economic slowdown are driving down the price of crude oil to the low $50 range per barrel—bad news for oil-reliant government budgets in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC powerhouses in the region.
For Europe, the arrival of the coronavirus comes at a particularly bad time, just as struggling economies were starting to climb out of last year’s doldrums and showing signs of recovery.
The growing outbreak in Italy—including the first cases in Sicily—is just another dollop of bad news for an Italian economy struggling to get back to growth. Travel restrictions in the area around Milan, the industrial center of Europe’s third-largest economy, are a kidney punch for an economy already grappling with the slowdown in Germany, a high debt load, an aging population, and endemic corruption. Moody’s rating agency expects the virus to tip Italy into recession this quarter.
Spain, too, is bracing for additional fallout from the virus—which had earlier led to the cancellation of the high-profile, annual mobile phone congress in Barcelona—after nearly a thousand tourists were quarantined in a hotel in the Canary Islands due to fears of infection from an Italian traveler.
In weeks past, economists figured there would be only a minimal hit to growth in fragile European economies because the effects of a slowdown in China were so indirect. Now, BBVA’s Sicilia said, they are starting to tally up potentially direct impacts—closed borders and hotels, quarantined cities, and shuttered factories.
“We’re still in the early phases, but this doesn’t come at a good moment. It’s going to hamstring the recovery a bit,” Sicilia said. “If the outbreak extends, if there are travel restrictions, if people aren’t working—all that goes straight into lower GDP.”