foreignpolicy--2020-03-20--China’s Military Claims to Be Virus-Free

U.S. observers have widely criticized China ’ s People ’ s Liberation Army ( PLA ) for its lackluster initial response to the 2019 coronavirus outbreak .
After the deployment of hundreds of PLA medics and other support personnel into Wuhan and other cities , those critiques are now less tenable .
PLA personnel have been on the front lines of the crisis for the past two months , reprising roles they have played during other emergencies , such as the 2002-2004 SARS crisis and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake , and providing relief to stressed local health systems .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been forthcoming about its ability to withstand the withering effects of the virus on its own personnel .
On March 3 , a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman claimed that not a single PLA service member—out of a force of some 2 million—had been infected , pointing to the effectiveness of the PLA ’ s force protection measures ( such as avoidance of large gatherings ) .
That seems highly unlikely .
A strong circumstantial case can be made that the PLA is unlikely to have been spared from infections that have ravaged the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Concealment of a disease making its way through parts of the PLA , if true , would underscore a military highly sensitive to the release of details on its current readiness .
This would be a sign of weakness , not confidence .
The PLA under President Xi Jinping ’ s leadership has cultivated an image of confidence and determination in its ability to carry out the most dangerous assignments .
Such self-assurance has been broadcast to domestic and international audiences through high-octane recruitment ads , films such as Wolf Warrior 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Chinese troops boldly deploying to Wuhan over the past two months , and doing so without falling victim to the insidious virus , confirm this narrative of the PLA as a force to be reckoned with .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
China ’ s official denial that any PLA members had been infected became instant fodder for the Hong Kong rumor mill , which cited claims that a group of 200 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airborne corps , based near Wuhan , were quarantined after one had become infected , while 300 others were quarantined on the island of Hainan after a submariner was stricken .
Others asserted that the virus was running rampant through both the air force and the People ’ s Armed Police , and that “ isolation houses ” for military personnel had been set up in numerous locations .
Unverified reports circulating in Hong Kong tabloids should be taken with a large grain of salt .
Some of the specific allegations may prove @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , there are several reasons to suspect that the PLA has likely concealed at least some cases .
is the first China ’ s track record of obfuscation in similar circumstances .
During the SARS crisis , Beijing initially denied that any service members had been afflicted .
Only when a PLA whistleblower came forward to the Western press with revelations that hundreds of patients were being treated in military hospitals did Chinese officials change their tune .
Ultimately , the World Health Organization verified that about 8 percent of China ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then consider the concentration of PLA personnel in the vicinity of Wuhan , which has been the epicenter of the virus in mainland China .
PLA units in and around the city include airborne troops , a reserve anti-aircraft artillery battery , academies of all four services , and the central depot of the Joint Logistic Support Force , which was established in 2016 as the main provider of general purpose supplies for the entire army .
( The location reflects Wuhan ’ s status as a critical rail juncture . )
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely that PLA members—including reserve and militia personnel mixed in with society and active-duty troops on leave during the Spring Festival holiday—were completely unaffected .
It beggars belief , given the number of Chinese military medical personnel on the front lines of the pandemic , that they all avoided infection .
According to Chinese media , more than 10,000 PLA health care workers have deployed , including more than 4,000 to operate makeshift hospitals in Wuhan .
Others have played supporting roles involving contact with local populations .
China ’ s National Health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civilian medics have been infected , with more than a dozen deaths reported .
It is dubious to think that PLA doctors , nurses , and technicians are so much more proficient than their civilian counterparts that they have been able to avoid any cases whatsoever .
Concealment of infections in the PLA would signal continuing roadblocks to Chinese military transparency .
Chinese officials have touted an increasingly transparent PLA , most recently through a lengthy white paper on military modernization .
Yet U.S. scholars have argued that PLA transparency has been at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the PLA ’ s tendency to avoid sharing embarrassing information with civilian leaders , or even the lack of effective communication between different parts of the PLA , which was a reason for its secrecy during the SARS crisis .
PLA officials today—aware of Xi ’ s willingness to sack anyone accused of mishandling the crisis—may be hiding information about infections in order to avoid the fallout if top leaders were to become aware of those failures .
Another obstacle to transparency is the perception that revealing too much damaging information about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ domestic and international repercussions .
Domestically , Beijing has utilized the military as a tool not only to fight the pandemic , but also to reassure a nervous population .
One PLA Daily report with the headline “ The PLA Has Arrived !
” boasted that “ the people ’ s army under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is just like a raging flame , bringing confidence , strength , and hope to the people.
” Confirmation that the disease is spreading in the PLA would undercut that message and raise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ability to manage the crisis : If the last line of defense fails , then what ?
Externally , Beijing relies on the military to deter its rivals and respond to provocations .
One of the PLA ’ s clearest official messages is that the crisis has actually increased the PLA ’ s readiness by providing real-world experience for thousands of troops—an argument that has some validity .
However , acknowledging PLA infections at the same time ( especially in combat units such as the airborne corps or on submarines ) would complicate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beijing ’ s perspective , might embolden regional antagonists to press their claims in the South or East China seas , or otherwise exploit the crisis for their own benefit .
This is not to imply that the PLA has been completely opaque about its own weaknesses .
One exception is a wide acknowledgment of failures among PLA commanders and staff officers to prepare for future wars—a theme that has been broadcast in PLA media as a way to reduce complacency and stimulate positive changes .
However , the line seems to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The PLA does not , for instance , disclose information on the current manning levels of individual units .
Obfuscation in cases like SARS and perhaps the 2019 coronavirus provides additional evidence of a PLA wariness to reveal information that could reduce confidence in its current ability to respond to domestic crises or deter foreign rivals .
Such an attitude stands in contrast with the U.S. military , which has already publicized specific details on cases in the ranks .
While there are obviously limits to U.S. disclosures on privacy and national-security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective coordination between civilian and military officials and confidence in the military ’ s ability to continue operating effectively at a time of enormous distraction .
The PLA ’ s need to project an air of impunity—and immunity—in the latest crisis should be taken as a sign of nervousness about its ability to complete other missions while consumed with a domestic crisis .
Such a conclusion would point to a PLA that still has some distance to go in its quest to become what Xi calls a “ world-class ” military .

U.S. observers have widely criticized China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for its lackluster initial response to the 2019 coronavirus outbreak. After the deployment of hundreds of PLA medics and other support personnel into Wuhan and other cities, those critiques are now less tenable. PLA personnel have been on the front lines of the crisis for the past two months, reprising roles they have played during other emergencies, such as the 2002-2004 SARS crisis and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, and providing relief to stressed local health systems.
U.S. observers have widely criticized China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for its lackluster initial response to the 2019 coronavirus outbreak. After the deployment of hundreds of PLA medics and other support personnel into Wuhan and other cities, those critiques are now less tenable. PLA personnel have been on the front lines of the crisis for the past two months, reprising roles they have played during other emergencies, such as the 2002-2004 SARS crisis and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, and providing relief to stressed local health systems.
The question now is whether the PLA has been forthcoming about its ability to withstand the withering effects of the virus on its own personnel. On March 3, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman claimed that not a single PLA service member—out of a force of some 2 million—had been infected, pointing to the effectiveness of the PLA’s force protection measures (such as avoidance of large gatherings).
That seems highly unlikely. A strong circumstantial case can be made that the PLA is unlikely to have been spared from infections that have ravaged the country since the end of last year. Concealment of a disease making its way through parts of the PLA, if true, would underscore a military highly sensitive to the release of details on its current readiness. This would be a sign of weakness, not confidence.
The PLA under President Xi Jinping’s leadership has cultivated an image of confidence and determination in its ability to carry out the most dangerous assignments. Such self-assurance has been broadcast to domestic and international audiences through high-octane recruitment ads, films such as Wolf Warrior 2, and grandiose military parades. Images of Chinese troops boldly deploying to Wuhan over the past two months, and doing so without falling victim to the insidious virus, confirm this narrative of the PLA as a force to be reckoned with.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
China’s official denial that any PLA members had been infected became instant fodder for the Hong Kong rumor mill, which cited claims that a group of 200 soldiers attached to the PLA’s airborne corps, based near Wuhan, were quarantined after one had become infected, while 300 others were quarantined on the island of Hainan after a submariner was stricken. Others asserted that the virus was running rampant through both the air force and the People’s Armed Police, and that “isolation houses” for military personnel had been set up in numerous locations.
Unverified reports circulating in Hong Kong tabloids should be taken with a large grain of salt. Some of the specific allegations may prove exaggerated, distorted, or untrue. However, there are several reasons to suspect that the PLA has likely concealed at least some cases.
is the first China’s track record of obfuscation in similar circumstances. During the SARS crisis, Beijing initially denied that any service members had been afflicted. Only when a PLA whistleblower came forward to the Western press with revelations that hundreds of patients were being treated in military hospitals did Chinese officials change their tune. Ultimately, the World Health Organization verified that about 8 percent of China’s SARS cases were military personnel.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
Then consider the concentration of PLA personnel in the vicinity of Wuhan, which has been the epicenter of the virus in mainland China. PLA units in and around the city include airborne troops, a reserve anti-aircraft artillery battery, academies of all four services, and the central depot of the Joint Logistic Support Force, which was established in 2016 as the main provider of general purpose supplies for the entire army. (The location reflects Wuhan’s status as a critical rail juncture.) In such an army town, it is unlikely that PLA members—including reserve and militia personnel mixed in with society and active-duty troops on leave during the Spring Festival holiday—were completely unaffected.
It beggars belief, given the number of Chinese military medical personnel on the front lines of the pandemic, that they all avoided infection. According to Chinese media, more than 10,000 PLA health care workers have deployed, including more than 4,000 to operate makeshift hospitals in Wuhan. Others have played supporting roles involving contact with local populations. China’s National Health Commission has confirmed that more than 3,000 civilian medics have been infected, with more than a dozen deaths reported. It is dubious to think that PLA doctors, nurses, and technicians are so much more proficient than their civilian counterparts that they have been able to avoid any cases whatsoever.
Concealment of infections in the PLA would signal continuing roadblocks to Chinese military transparency. Chinese officials have touted an increasingly transparent PLA, most recently through a lengthy white paper on military modernization. Yet U.S. scholars have argued that PLA transparency has been at best uneven. One barrier has been the PLA’s tendency to avoid sharing embarrassing information with civilian leaders, or even the lack of effective communication between different parts of the PLA, which was a reason for its secrecy during the SARS crisis. PLA officials today—aware of Xi’s willingness to sack anyone accused of mishandling the crisis—may be hiding information about infections in order to avoid the fallout if top leaders were to become aware of those failures.
Another obstacle to transparency is the perception that revealing too much damaging information about the PLA’s shortcomings would have negative domestic and international repercussions. Domestically, Beijing has utilized the military as a tool not only to fight the pandemic, but also to reassure a nervous population. One PLA Daily report with the headline “The PLA Has Arrived!” boasted that “the people’s army under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is just like a raging flame, bringing confidence, strength, and hope to the people.” Confirmation that the disease is spreading in the PLA would undercut that message and raise deeper questions about the party’s ability to manage the crisis: If the last line of defense fails, then what?
Externally, Beijing relies on the military to deter its rivals and respond to provocations. One of the PLA’s clearest official messages is that the crisis has actually increased the PLA’s readiness by providing real-world experience for thousands of troops—an argument that has some validity. However, acknowledging PLA infections at the same time (especially in combat units such as the airborne corps or on submarines) would complicate that argument and, at least from Beijing’s perspective, might embolden regional antagonists to press their claims in the South or East China seas, or otherwise exploit the crisis for their own benefit.
This is not to imply that the PLA has been completely opaque about its own weaknesses. One exception is a wide acknowledgment of failures among PLA commanders and staff officers to prepare for future wars—a theme that has been broadcast in PLA media as a way to reduce complacency and stimulate positive changes. However, the line seems to be drawn at providing details on current readiness. The PLA does not, for instance, disclose information on the current manning levels of individual units. Obfuscation in cases like SARS and perhaps the 2019 coronavirus provides additional evidence of a PLA wariness to reveal information that could reduce confidence in its current ability to respond to domestic crises or deter foreign rivals.
Such an attitude stands in contrast with the U.S. military, which has already publicized specific details on cases in the ranks. While there are obviously limits to U.S. disclosures on privacy and national-security grounds, the relative openness reflects both effective coordination between civilian and military officials and confidence in the military’s ability to continue operating effectively at a time of enormous distraction. The PLA’s need to project an air of impunity—and immunity—in the latest crisis should be taken as a sign of nervousness about its ability to complete other missions while consumed with a domestic crisis. Such a conclusion would point to a PLA that still has some distance to go in its quest to become what Xi calls a “world-class” military.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-20--Claims of a Coronavirus-Free Laos Are Probably Fiction

Claims of a Coronavirus-Free Laos Are Probably Fiction If you travel Laos asking about the coronavirus , the most common response is an assured smile : “ There ’ s no coronavirus here.
” But dig a little deeper , hang out with the village women , passing babies , and you ’ ll find fear and rumors .
Speaking on condition of anonymity , villagers living near a Chinese construction site said they heard one of the workers there was infected .
The rumors get wilder the nearer you get to the capital city , Vientiane .
Speak to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll say it ’ s a government cover-up , telling tales of shady organizations worthy of the most deranged subreddits .
The Laos government has yet to confirm a case of the virus in the landlocked nation that borders China , Myanmar , Thailand , Cambodia , and Vietnam .
A leaked document from the coronavirus task force said the government has checked 85 suspected cases , with 81 coming back negative .
The final four cases were awaiting results at the time of writing .
On Monday Laos announced new rules for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people arriving from nations with more than 100 cases .
Officials are hoping to remain one of only two Southeast Asian nations that has no confirmed cases , along with Myanmar .
53 suspected cases tested negative earlier this month .
“ I ’ m worried there ’ s a hidden epidemic , ” said one doctor from Luang Prabang—a UNESCO World Heritage Site visited by 655,000 tourists in 2018 , about one-quarter of them Chinese .
However , the opaque nature of the communist government has led people to question official statements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ All TV , radio , and printed publications are strictly monitored and controlled by the Lao government .
The constitution prohibits all mass media activities that run contrary to ‘ national interests , ’ ” according to Human Rights Watch .
Government control was extended to include social media in a 2015 cybercrime law that forbids “ Causing Damages via Online Social Media.
” Indeed , a woman was arrested in February for posting rumors on Facebook that people infected with coronavirus were shopping at a mall in Vientiane , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fraught nature of reporting in Laos , all sources in this article spoke under condition of anonymity .
“ I ’ m worried there ’ s a hidden epidemic , ” said one doctor from Luang Prabang—a UNESCO World Heritage Site visited by 655,000 tourists in 2018 , about one-quarter of them Chinese .
“ Provincial hospitals do not have equipment to test people and they might only refer the worst cases to laboratories in Vientiane.
” A staffer at a health nongovernmental organization said the organization wasn ’ t testing patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its modus operandi .
“ The treatment for coronavirus is basically the same as other respiratory diseases so we just treat the people who come in.
” The staffer said the NGO doesn ’ t have equipment to test for the virus .
As in other nations , panic and hoarding masks has been a problem .
“ We went through 500 masks a day , ” the staffer said .
“ People were stealing them .
So now masks are kept under lock and key.
” Worse , when news of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to seek treatment for fear of getting infected .
“ For two weeks there was a big drop in patients and that meant some people didn ’ t get the treatment they needed .
Some may have died as a result , ” the staffer added .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
At a hospital in northern Laos , a doctor said he hadn ’ t confirmed any cases .
However , his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testing kit in late February ; before then it was sending samples to laboratories in Vientiane .
“ I have tested seven people in the past two weeks , all exhibiting high fevers , and none were coronavirus , ” the doctor said .
“ There are no cases in Laos so far because we have had good government outreach via television , radio , and via village leaders encouraging people to stay at home and not to travel , ” the doctor said .
“ Also , the weather has been good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population density.
” “ Seasonality ” —how weather conditions affect a virus—is unknown for coronavirus .
However , a recent study by a team of American and Iranian researchers points out that the largest outbreaks of the virus are all on similar latitudes .
“ The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude , temperature , and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus , ” the March 5 study said .
As for population density , the doctor might be on to something .
Laos has an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ area about the size of the United Kingdom .
Some 64 percent of Laotians live in rural settings , according to Worldometer .
And in some provinces more than 20 percent of communities don ’ t have road access .
A source at an international health NGO said the low population density could be a key reason why the small nation has not reported any cases .
There was a brush with the virus when Chinese tourist Zhang Biao visited Vang Vieng and Luang Prabang on Jan. 27 and 28 .
He was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return to China , according to a Feb. 2 missive sent by the Chinese consulate to medical officials in Laos .
Furthermore , a doctor in Luang Prabang said he treated a young Dutch woman for a high fever on March 2 .
Medical officials quarantined her overnight while samples were sent to Vientiane .
The tests came back negative for coronavirus and the woman flew home the next day .
Little is known about her itinerary before entering Laos , and attempts to contact her were unsuccessful .
As for the Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ connecting the Chinese city Kunming to Vientiane , most never returned after Chinese New Year that fell on Jan. 25 , according to a Laotian worker at a construction site near Oudomxay .
“ Now we can only do basic tasks because the technical aspects were handled by the Chinese.
” His friend was concerned about the disease .
“ If they come back , we might quit , ” he said .
“ We ’ ll find work building houses so it ’ s less risky.
” At several other construction sites @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese workers stood empty .
Villagers nearby also said the workers never returned after Chinese New Year .
The Kunming-Vientiane railway is part of China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative and would eventually connect all the way to Singapore via Bangkok .
Laos is depending on China to bankroll this project , as well as funding its ambition to become the “ battery of Southeast Asia ” by building dozens of dams and selling excess electricity to underpowered neighbors such as Cambodia .
Ties with Beijing are among Laos ’ most important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this as a complicating factor when dealing with the virus that originated in Wuhan , China .
The friendship goes both ways .
China Global Television Network posted a song composed by the director-general of the Lao People ’ s Revolutionary Youth Union ’ s Central International Department .
“ We are friends .
We share the same future , ” he sung .
Also complicating things is Laos ’ portfolio of respiratory diseases that have symptoms very similar to COVID-19 .
“ In Lao PDR , a high diversity of bacterial and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population , ” said a 2017 study by Institut Pasteur du Laos .
Misdiagnosis in underequipped rural hospitals is “ a concern that must be addressed by the government , ” the doctor in Luang Prabang said .
Officials did test villagers in Phongsaly province in February when two women and an infant died from a respiratory illness .
The results came back as influenza .
The hill tribes who populate the northern provinces of Laos have little immunity to strains of the flu , making them extremely vulnerable if exposed to COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chinese border is the scene of a large development as part of the Kunming-Vientiane railway .
Reports have said that work there has completely stopped due to the virus , but I observed a small number of trucks moving earth while heavy diggers stood idle .
There were also small numbers of container lorries still crossing .
A security guard took my temperature upon entering an empty duty-free shop in Boten .
A Chinese staffer inside smiled and said there was no cause for concern because of stringent checks on the Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Laos side , an empty quarantine area was prepared .
But now that the outbreak is wordwide , Laos has closed more than a dozen small border crossings with Vietnam and Cambodia , and pressure is mounting for schools to be closed .
Two private schools closed this week with more waiting for government to give the word .
While Laos has apparently escaped infection so far , panic and paranoia are spreading .
Fewer people are buying the government ’ s story .
Whatever the truth , the idea that even this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improbable .

If you travel Laos asking about the coronavirus, the most common response is an assured smile: “There’s no coronavirus here.” But dig a little deeper, hang out with the village women, passing babies, and you’ll find fear and rumors.
If you travel Laos asking about the coronavirus, the most common response is an assured smile: “There’s no coronavirus here.” But dig a little deeper, hang out with the village women, passing babies, and you’ll find fear and rumors.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, villagers living near a Chinese construction site said they heard one of the workers there was infected. The rumors get wilder the nearer you get to the capital city, Vientiane. Speak to folks around there, and they’ll say it’s a government cover-up, telling tales of shady organizations worthy of the most deranged subreddits.
The Laos government has yet to confirm a case of the virus in the landlocked nation that borders China, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. A leaked document from the coronavirus task force said the government has checked 85 suspected cases, with 81 coming back negative. The final four cases were awaiting results at the time of writing.
On Monday Laos announced new rules for people entering the country including self-quarantine for people arriving from nations with more than 100 cases. Officials are hoping to remain one of only two Southeast Asian nations that has no confirmed cases, along with Myanmar. 53 suspected cases tested negative earlier this month.
“I’m worried there’s a hidden epidemic,” said one doctor from Luang Prabang—a UNESCO World Heritage Site visited by 655,000 tourists in 2018, about one-quarter of them Chinese.
However, the opaque nature of the communist government has led people to question official statements and reports in the state-controlled media. “All TV, radio, and printed publications are strictly monitored and controlled by the Lao government. The constitution prohibits all mass media activities that run contrary to ‘national interests,’” according to Human Rights Watch.
Government control was extended to include social media in a 2015 cybercrime law that forbids “Causing Damages via Online Social Media.” Indeed, a woman was arrested in February for posting rumors on Facebook that people infected with coronavirus were shopping at a mall in Vientiane, according to a Radio Free Asia report. Given the fraught nature of reporting in Laos, all sources in this article spoke under condition of anonymity.
“I’m worried there’s a hidden epidemic,” said one doctor from Luang Prabang—a UNESCO World Heritage Site visited by 655,000 tourists in 2018, about one-quarter of them Chinese. “Provincial hospitals do not have equipment to test people and they might only refer the worst cases to laboratories in Vientiane.”
A warning poster outside a testing laboratory at a hospital in Laos on March 3. The government is slowly expanding its ability to test for coronavirus to provincial hospitals, but some doctors fear that cases are still going undetected.
A staffer at a health nongovernmental organization said the organization wasn’t testing patients for the virus because it was not its modus operandi. “The treatment for coronavirus is basically the same as other respiratory diseases so we just treat the people who come in.” The staffer said the NGO doesn’t have equipment to test for the virus.
As in other nations, panic and hoarding masks has been a problem. “We went through 500 masks a day,” the staffer said. “People were stealing them. So now masks are kept under lock and key.” Worse, when news of the virus first hit, people were scared to seek treatment for fear of getting infected. “For two weeks there was a big drop in patients and that meant some people didn’t get the treatment they needed. Some may have died as a result,” the staffer added.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
At a hospital in northern Laos, a doctor said he hadn’t confirmed any cases. However, his institution only received a polymerase chain reaction testing kit in late February; before then it was sending samples to laboratories in Vientiane. “I have tested seven people in the past two weeks, all exhibiting high fevers, and none were coronavirus,” the doctor said.
“There are no cases in Laos so far because we have had good government outreach via television, radio, and via village leaders encouraging people to stay at home and not to travel,” the doctor said. “Also, the weather has been good and dry and we have a low population density.”
“Seasonality”—how weather conditions affect a virus—is unknown for coronavirus. However, a recent study by a team of American and Iranian researchers points out that the largest outbreaks of the virus are all on similar latitudes. “The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus,” the March 5 study said.
This graphic, published by the Laos Ministry of Health on March 17, shows how many suspected cases have been tested by province. Laos has reported no cases of coronavirus so far but doctors and citizens question the nation's testing capabilities.
As for population density, the doctor might be on to something. Laos has an estimated population of 7.3 million in an area about the size of the United Kingdom. Some 64 percent of Laotians live in rural settings, according to Worldometer. And in some provinces more than 20 percent of communities don’t have road access. A source at an international health NGO said the low population density could be a key reason why the small nation has not reported any cases.
There was a brush with the virus when Chinese tourist Zhang Biao visited Vang Vieng and Luang Prabang on Jan. 27 and 28. He was found to have the virus upon his return to China, according to a Feb. 2 missive sent by the Chinese consulate to medical officials in Laos.
Furthermore, a doctor in Luang Prabang said he treated a young Dutch woman for a high fever on March 2. Medical officials quarantined her overnight while samples were sent to Vientiane. The tests came back negative for coronavirus and the woman flew home the next day. Little is known about her itinerary before entering Laos, and attempts to contact her were unsuccessful.
As for the Chinese workers building the $7 billion railway connecting the Chinese city Kunming to Vientiane, most never returned after Chinese New Year that fell on Jan. 25, according to a Laotian worker at a construction site near Oudomxay. “Now we can only do basic tasks because the technical aspects were handled by the Chinese.”
His friend was concerned about the disease. “If they come back, we might quit,” he said. “We’ll find work building houses so it’s less risky.” At several other construction sites on the gigantic railway, housing for Chinese workers stood empty. Villagers nearby also said the workers never returned after Chinese New Year.
Pillars for the Kunming-Vientiane railway on Feb 28. Progress on the Chinese-funded railway that will run through much of Laos has slowed as Chinese workers stay home to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
The Kunming-Vientiane railway is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and would eventually connect all the way to Singapore via Bangkok. Laos is depending on China to bankroll this project, as well as funding its ambition to become the “battery of Southeast Asia” by building dozens of dams and selling excess electricity to underpowered neighbors such as Cambodia.
Ties with Beijing are among Laos’ most important geopolitical relationships. Some have pointed to this as a complicating factor when dealing with the virus that originated in Wuhan, China. The friendship goes both ways. China Global Television Network posted a song composed by the director-general of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Youth Union’s Central International Department. “We are friends. We share the same future,” he sung.
Also complicating things is Laos’ portfolio of respiratory diseases that have symptoms very similar to COVID-19. “In Lao PDR, a high diversity of bacterial and viral respiratory pathogens are circulating among the population,” said a 2017 study by Institut Pasteur du Laos. Misdiagnosis in underequipped rural hospitals is “a concern that must be addressed by the government,” the doctor in Luang Prabang said.
Officials did test villagers in Phongsaly province in February when two women and an infant died from a respiratory illness. The results came back as influenza. The hill tribes who populate the northern provinces of Laos have little immunity to strains of the flu, making them extremely vulnerable if exposed to COVID-19.
The Boten Special Economic Zone on the Chinese border is the scene of a large development as part of the Kunming-Vientiane railway. Reports have said that work there has completely stopped due to the virus, but I observed a small number of trucks moving earth while heavy diggers stood idle. There were also small numbers of container lorries still crossing.
A security guard took my temperature upon entering an empty duty-free shop in Boten. A Chinese staffer inside smiled and said there was no cause for concern because of stringent checks on the Chinese side of the border. On the Laos side, an empty quarantine area was prepared.
But now that the outbreak is wordwide, Laos has closed more than a dozen small border crossings with Vietnam and Cambodia, and pressure is mounting for schools to be closed. Two private schools closed this week with more waiting for government to give the word. While Laos has apparently escaped infection so far, panic and paranoia are spreading. Fewer people are buying the government’s story. Whatever the truth, the idea that even this backwater nation can escape is looking increasingly improbable.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-21--Our Top Weekend Reads

Our Top Weekend Reads

Social distancing is one of the top methods used by people to help combat the spread of the coronavirus , but for many of the world ’ s most vulnerable communities , that isn ’ t possible .
Meanwhile , the lack of concern some Middle Eastern leaders hold for the populations they govern has helped blunt their response to the coronavirus .
And an investigation by Foreign Policy ’ s Amy Mackinnon sheds light on the sometimes fatal price whistleblowers pay when they expose misconduct .
Millions of people lived in crammed , overcrowded refugee camps across the Middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a way of curbing the spread of the coronavirus isn ’ t a realistic option , Rebecca Collard writes .
The death by suicide of Steven Luke weeks after he blew the whistle on the Pentagon ’ s own watchdog office highlights the enormous psychological price whistleblowers often pay when they take action , Foreign Policy ’ s Amy Mackinnon writes .
The U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden ’ s political philosophy is more akin to the European tradition of Christian democracy , which seeks to forge a middle approach between right-wing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Accetti writes .
4 .
Sisi and Erdogan Are Accomplices of the Coronavirus The disdain some Middle Eastern leaders have for the societies they oversee has robbed them of social cohesion , necessarily rendering it harder to survive and recover from the current health crisis , Foreign Policy ’ s Steven A. Cook writes .
The Indian health care system is particularly vulnerable to a coronavirus outbreak , but the country ’ s positive record dealing with past public health crises offers some hope , Sumit Ganguly writes .

Social distancing is one of the top methods used by people to help combat the spread of the coronavirus, but for many of the world’s most vulnerable communities, that isn’t possible.
Social distancing is one of the top methods used by people to help combat the spread of the coronavirus, but for many of the world’s most vulnerable communities, that isn’t possible.
Meanwhile, the lack of concern some Middle Eastern leaders hold for the populations they govern has helped blunt their response to the coronavirus.
And an investigation by Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon sheds light on the sometimes fatal price whistleblowers pay when they expose misconduct.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top weekend reads.
Syrian refugees
Millions of people lived in crammed, overcrowded refugee camps across the Middle East. To them, social distancing as a way of curbing the spread of the coronavirus isn’t a realistic option, Rebecca Collard writes.
Jon Benedict for Foreign Policy/Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images/Family Photo
The death by suicide of Steven Luke weeks after he blew the whistle on the Pentagon’s own watchdog office highlights the enormous psychological price whistleblowers often pay when they take action, Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon writes.
Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel
The U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden’s political philosophy is more akin to the European tradition of Christian democracy, which seeks to forge a middle approach between right-wing nationalism and democratic socialism, Carlo Invernizzi Accetti writes.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
The disdain some Middle Eastern leaders have for the societies they oversee has robbed them of social cohesion, necessarily rendering it harder to survive and recover from the current health crisis, Foreign Policy’s Steven A. Cook writes.
A health worker checks the body temperature of a woman amid concerns over the spread of the coronavirus at Kapaleeshwar temple.
The Indian health care system is particularly vulnerable to a coronavirus outbreak, but the country’s positive record dealing with past public health crises offers some hope, Sumit Ganguly writes.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-21--The FP Guide to Staying In During a Pandemic

Feeling a little sorry for yourself over being isolated at home ?
The best cure might be to consider what a really bad pandemic looks like .
Pick up Emily St. John Mandel ’ s 2014 dystopian novel , Station Eleven , a beautifully written rumination on what happens when a pandemic kills off 99 percent of the human race in only a few weeks—and , device by device , civilization winks out .
If this coronavirus thing does keep going for months , after finishing Mandel , you might want to turn to Stephen King ’ s 1,439-page doorstop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story about a terrible pandemic originally published in 1978 but updated in 1990 .
More prosaically written but more horrifying than Station Eleven , The Stand was made into a 1994 television miniseries but will no doubt be coming again to a theater near you once the pandemic passes .
—Michael Hirsh As U.S. President Donald Trump and his allies insist on describing the coronavirus as the “ Chinese virus , ” it ’ s worth revisiting Illness as Metaphor , the 1978 treatise by Susan Sontag in which she challenged the myths @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain diseases over the years .
“ Nothing is more punitive than to give a disease a meaning—that meaning being invariably a moralistic one , ” she wrote .
—Amy Mackinnon Say Nothing by Patrick Radden Keefe takes a deep dive into the 1972 murder of Jean McConville , a widowed mother of 10 who was abducted from her flat in Northern Ireland by Irish Republican Army ( IRA ) terrorists after being accused of passing information to the British army .
With several former members of the IRA now in positions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the events described in this novel have international significance .
—Dan Haverty As we process a world of “ social distancing , ” fear , and scarcity , some perspective is never a bad thing .
Foyle ’ s War is a British TV drama that first aired in 2002 and looks back at World War II from the vantage point of the residents of Hastings in Sussex , England .
Amid the chaos and uncertainty of the war effort , Detective Chief Superintendent Christopher Foyle—played masterfully by Michael Kitchen—takes on rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , petty crime , and sometimes murder .
The long-running series , which concluded in 2015 and is available for streaming on multiple platforms , tells the story of how regular small-town life can be upended by big , global developments , rather like the times we ’ re living in right now .
And just as crises throw up criminals , they also provide an opportunity for acts of humanity , courage , and leadership .
Foyle and his contemporaries are reassuring to watch .
They got through it then , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can ’ t now .
—Ravi Agrawal Secret City is an addictive , slow-burning Australian political thriller about China ’ s growing influence in Australian politics and security services .
The Netflix series is hard not to binge , especially as the world debates China ’ s superpower status coming out of this pandemic .
—Robbie Gramer This is both an incredible book series and a great TV series on Amazon .
It ’ s an action-packed sci-fi series that weaves in enough grand strategy and political intrigue to keep most foreign policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be sci-fi fans .
( Think Game of Thrones meets Firefly … in space , of course . )
I recommend reading the books before watching the series .
Book One is called Leviathan Wakes .
—Robbie Gramer Veep satirist Armando Iannucci ’ s tale of disaster upon a space yacht , Avenue 5—an HBO series—starts a little clumsily but rapidly evolves into a bleakly hilarious tale of incompetence amid the stars .
Hugh Laurie is the captain you never wanted , an actor hired to play a role who is forced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he tries to keep the crew and passengers together .
—James Palmer With many parents now home-schooling their children , this video of an irate Israeli mother struggling to keep up with her children ’ s new distance-learning routine has gone viral in Israel .
“ I have four children .
… Imagine how many WhatsApps , how many teachers for each child , how many subjects per child , ” she says on Day Two of the quarantine .
“ If we don ’ t die of corona , we ’ ll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A video game almost perfectly designed for our current moment , The Longing features a lonely servant stuck by himself in a giant cave as he waits for a mythological king to awaken .
The game plays out in real time over 400 days and is designed to be dipped into between other things , as you dispatch the protagonist on slow explorations of the caves or attempt to solve time-based puzzles .
With luck , we ’ ll be released from our own confinement before the servant is freed sometime next summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fresh air if you ’ re trapped inside , I ’ d recommend the board game Wingspan , in which you play an ornithologist trying to amass the best bird collection .
It ’ s beautifully designed and illustrated , and organizing your colorful birds and egg tokens can provide a comforting sense of control in these uncertain times .
The one-to-five-player game can expand or contract to suit however many people you ’ re cooped up with .
—Nina Goldman If you were living under a rock in 2017 and missed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now is the time to catch up on S-Town , a stunning seven-part podcast series created by the producers of Serial and This American Life .
This beautifully told , moving series takes you deep into the life and times of John B McLemore , a loquacious , eccentric , troubled , liberal , kind-hearted , hoarder horologist living in a small town in Alabama .
—Amy Mackinnon As countries around the world close their borders to stem the pandemic , escape in your mind with Foreign Policy ’ s podcast series I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Margo Martindale , each episode features one former spy telling the story of one operation .
Hear from a KGB sleeper agent , undercover operatives , and masters of disguise .
—Amy Mackinnon

Millions of people around the world are now spending significantly more time at home, doing their part to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The staff of Foreign Policy are among them. Here’s a quick guide to what we’re doing to help pass the time—besides, of course, binge-watching the latest seasons of such popular shows as Better Call Saul, Westworld, and Grace and Frankie.
Millions of people around the world are now spending significantly more time at home, doing their part to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The staff of Foreign Policy are among them. Here’s a quick guide to what we’re doing to help pass the time—besides, of course, binge-watching the latest seasons of such popular shows as Better Call Saul, Westworld, and Grace and Frankie.
READ
Station Eleven
Feeling a little sorry for yourself over being isolated at home? The best cure might be to consider what a really bad pandemic looks like. Pick up Emily St. John Mandel’s 2014 dystopian novel, Station Eleven, a beautifully written rumination on what happens when a pandemic kills off 99 percent of the human race in only a few weeks—and, device by device, civilization winks out. If this coronavirus thing does keep going for months, after finishing Mandel, you might want to turn to Stephen King’s 1,439-page doorstop of a novel The Stand, another story about a terrible pandemic originally published in 1978 but updated in 1990. More prosaically written but more horrifying than Station Eleven, The Stand was made into a 1994 television miniseries but will no doubt be coming again to a theater near you once the pandemic passes. —Michael Hirsh
Illness as Metaphor
As U.S. President Donald Trump and his allies insist on describing the coronavirus as the “Chinese virus,” it’s worth revisiting Illness as Metaphor, the 1978 treatise by Susan Sontag in which she challenged the myths and metaphors that have been ascribed to certain diseases over the years. “Nothing is more punitive than to give a disease a meaning—that meaning being invariably a moralistic one,” she wrote. —Amy Mackinnon
Say Nothing
Say Nothing by Patrick Radden Keefe takes a deep dive into the 1972 murder of Jean McConville, a widowed mother of 10 who was abducted from her flat in Northern Ireland by Irish Republican Army (IRA) terrorists after being accused of passing information to the British army. With several former members of the IRA now in positions of power in both Northern Ireland and Ireland, the events described in this novel have international significance. —Dan Haverty
WATCH
Foyle’s War
As we process a world of “social distancing,” fear, and scarcity, some perspective is never a bad thing. Foyle’s War is a British TV drama that first aired in 2002 and looks back at World War II from the vantage point of the residents of Hastings in Sussex, England. Amid the chaos and uncertainty of the war effort, Detective Chief Superintendent Christopher Foyle—played masterfully by Michael Kitchen—takes on rather more mundane cases at home: profiteering, petty crime, and sometimes murder. The long-running series, which concluded in 2015 and is available for streaming on multiple platforms, tells the story of how regular small-town life can be upended by big, global developments, rather like the times we’re living in right now. And just as crises throw up criminals, they also provide an opportunity for acts of humanity, courage, and leadership. Foyle and his contemporaries are reassuring to watch. They got through it then, and there’s no reason why we can’t now. —Ravi Agrawal
Secret City
Secret City is an addictive, slow-burning Australian political thriller about China’s growing influence in Australian politics and security services. The Netflix series is hard not to binge, especially as the world debates China’s superpower status coming out of this pandemic. —Robbie Gramer
The Expanse
This is both an incredible book series and a great TV series on Amazon. It’s an action-packed sci-fi series that weaves in enough grand strategy and political intrigue to keep most foreign policy wonks engaged, even those who might not be sci-fi fans. (Think Game of Thrones meets Firefly … in space, of course.) I recommend reading the books before watching the series. Book One is called Leviathan Wakes. —Robbie Gramer
Avenue 5
Veep satirist Armando Iannucci’s tale of disaster upon a space yacht, Avenue 5—an HBO series—starts a little clumsily but rapidly evolves into a bleakly hilarious tale of incompetence amid the stars. Hugh Laurie is the captain you never wanted, an actor hired to play a role who is forced into the responsibilities of actual command as he tries to keep the crew and passengers together. —James Palmer
YouTube video
With many parents now home-schooling their children, this video of an irate Israeli mother struggling to keep up with her children’s new distance-learning routine has gone viral in Israel. “I have four children. … Imagine how many WhatsApps, how many teachers for each child, how many subjects per child,” she says on Day Two of the quarantine. “If we don’t die of corona, we’ll die of distance learning.” —Dan Ephron
PLAY
The Longing
A video game almost perfectly designed for our current moment, The Longing features a lonely servant stuck by himself in a giant cave as he waits for a mythological king to awaken. The game plays out in real time over 400 days and is designed to be dipped into between other things, as you dispatch the protagonist on slow explorations of the caves or attempt to solve time-based puzzles. With luck, we’ll be released from our own confinement before the servant is freed sometime next summer. —James Palmer
Wingspan
For a breath of fresh air if you’re trapped inside, I’d recommend the board game Wingspan, in which you play an ornithologist trying to amass the best bird collection. It’s beautifully designed and illustrated, and organizing your colorful birds and egg tokens can provide a comforting sense of control in these uncertain times. The one-to-five-player game can expand or contract to suit however many people you’re cooped up with. —Nina Goldman
LISTEN
S-Town
If you were living under a rock in 2017 and missed the series when it first came out, now is the time to catch up on S-Town, a stunning seven-part podcast series created by the producers of Serial and This American Life. This beautifully told, moving series takes you deep into the life and times of John B McLemore, a loquacious, eccentric, troubled, liberal, kind-hearted, hoarder horologist living in a small town in Alabama. —Amy Mackinnon
I Spy
As countries around the world close their borders to stem the pandemic, escape in your mind with Foreign Policy’s podcast series I Spy. Hosted by the award-winning actress Margo Martindale, each episode features one former spy telling the story of one operation. Hear from a KGB sleeper agent, undercover operatives, and masters of disguise. —Amy Mackinnon


foreignpolicy--2020-03-23--Will Israel Form a National Unity Government?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Benjamin Netanyahu floats a unity government proposal in Israel , talks between the Taliban and Afghan government begin slowly , and Italy plans business closures to fight epidemic .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed over the weekend that he had agreed to form an emergency unity government with rival Benny Gantz , Haaretz reported .
The supposed deal would leave Netanyahu ’ s Likud party with the posts of prime minister and finance minister with Gantz set to replace Netanyahu as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ half .
“ I will leave office on the agreed date , ” Netanyahu said , addressing Gantz , “ There will be no shticks and tricks .
Millions of Israelis are waiting for us.
” Netanyahu told Israel ’ s Channel 12 that although no agreement has been signed yet , Likud and Gantz ’ s Blue and White party had finished up negotiations on the shape of a unity government .
It does not appear that Netanyahu ’ s oppenents have agreed to the plan .
Can Netanyahu hold on ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has recently found ways to cling to political life : his justice minister closed the court system , delaying his corruption trial until at least May , and by seeking to suspend the Knesset , Speaker Yuli Edelstein , a Likud member , effectively blocked Blue and White from forming parliamentary committees and from electing a new speaker—a move that was challenged in Israel ’ s supreme court .
The move did not go over well with the public .
Nearly 600,000 Israelis showed up for a virtual protest against efforts to shut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Facebook Live due to restrictions on large gatherings .
Several luminaries including former domestic intelligence chief Yuval Diskin , ex-Mossad head Efraim Halevy , former Supreme Court vice president Elyakim Rubinstein , TV personality Lucy Aharish , and actress Gila Almagor spoke during the online event .
Supreme Court keeps Knesset open .
The court ruled on Sunday that “ steps taken to combat coronavirus shouldn ’ t prevent Knesset activities from going ahead ” and members will reportedly enter the chamber six at a time to vote this week while those members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home if a method is found to facilitate remote voting .
What has Benny Gantz said ?
Gantz ’ s response has been cryptic , initially tweeting “ Those who want unity do not work with ultimatums and harmful leaks and certainly do not try to hurt our democracy and citizens by paralyzing the Knesset.
” Members of his party do not seem to support any unity government led by Netanyahu .
According to the Jerusalem Post , a Blue and White source argued “ Netanyahu doesn ’ t want unity…He ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instead of seriously working towards unity .
Benny Gantz has been given the mandate to form a government and everyone is united in the effort to make that happen.
” Gantz still has 22 days to form a government after he gained the recommendation of 61 members of the Knesset and was given the go ahead by Israel ’ s president .
Meanwhile , after the court ruling on keeping the Knesset running , Blue and White appears poised to take over key parliamentary committees if the votes go ahead .
Taliban talks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Taliban made a minor breakthrough in nascent peace talks as a Skype call restarted dialogue on prisoner exchanges .
The two-hour meeting , facilitated by the United States and Qatar , is the first time the two sides have spoken since talks stalled over the method of releasing prisoners .
The Taliban wants 5,000 prisoners released immediately , whereas Ashraf Ghani ’ s government wants there to be a phased release .
Earthquake hits Croatia .
A 5.3 magnitude earthquake hit Croatia ’ s capital , Zagreb , yesterday , damaging buildings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Andrej Plenkovic called it the worst earthquake to hit Croatia in 140 years .
The country ’ s health minister , Vili Beros , told residents to maintain caution even as they assess the damage , “ Earthquakes are dangerous but coronavirus is even more so , ” he said .
Croatia has registered 254 cases of coronavirus so far .
New Delhi on lockdown .
New Delhi ’ s 21 million residents will be placed under lockdown until March 31 as India seeks to confront the coronavirus .
On Sunday , Indians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or people ’ s curfew , as Indians were encouraged to stay at home until 9 p.m .
Although the country has only registered 341 cases of coronavirus so far , experts say that low number could be due to lack of testing .
White House confirms Kim Jong Un letter .
As a signal of “ the special and very firm personal relations ” between their leader and U.S. President Donald Trump , North Korea said it had received a letter from the White House seeking cooperation on the coronavirus epidemic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and said it was “ consistent with his efforts to engage global leaders during the ongoing pandemic.
” North Korea has not halted missile testing during the outbreak , and conducted another round of test launches last Saturday .
Italy closes more businesses .
Italy is set to close all nonessential businesses until April 3 as a further measure to combat its coronavirus epidemic .
In a live address , Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said “ only production activities deemed vital for national production will be allowed , ” although grocery stores , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain open .
Italy ’ s coronavirus death toll now stands at 5,476 after 651 people died on Sunday .
Russia ’ s Italy aid .
Russia ’ s defense ministry said it would send eight mobile medic brigades , special disinfection vehicles , and other medical equipment to Italy under a direct order from President Vladimir Putin .
Russia has reported only 306 cases of the coronavirus so far , with one death .
COVID-19 comes to Africa .
Three more African countries—Angola , Eritrea , and Uganda—have now confirmed their first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being reported on the continent , Africa is yet to see the same number of infections as Europe and Asia : Of the 23 countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases so far , none are in Africa .
African governments may also have important lessons to teach the West based on their experience battling Ebola , as a former Liberian finance minister , Amara Konneh , argued in Foreign Policy last week .
Coronavirus in Gaza .
The densely-populated Gaza Strip has reported its first two cases of coronavirus , after two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positive .
Already under blockade , Israel announced it would close its borders with Gaza to commercial traffic but would allow humanitarian staff through .
According to the Palestinian health ministry , there have been 59 cases of coronavirus in the West Bank .
More leaders test positive .
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul has tested positive for the coronavirus , his office confirmed yesterday .
He is the highest-ranking U.S. official so far to become infected .
Meanwhile , German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone into self-quarantine after it emerged her doctor was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visited her doctor on Friday to receive a pneumococcal vaccine .
Foreign Policy is keeping track of the world leaders who have been infected with the coronavirus with a running list , updated daily .
A preliminary hearing will take place today in the trial of Paul Whelan , the U.S. citizen held in Russia on allegations of espionage since December 2018 .
Prosecutors are expected to request an extension until October .
Foreign ministers from the G-7 countries will meet Wednesday over video conference ahead of the June G-7 summit .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an in-person summit because of coronavirus fears .
U.S. lawmakers are expected to hammer out a package to deal with the economic impacts of the coronavirus .
A bill is currently being held up over disagreements between Democrats and Republicans on worker protections and corporate aid .
Argentina ’ s president has confirmed that although strict measures are in place as the country goes into lockdown , the tooth fairy will still be allowed to roam freely .
Responding to a mother on Twitter whose son had just lost his first tooth , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fairy can leave rewards for fallen teeth because he is not under quarantine .
But the rest of us are…Joaquin should leave the tooth beneath his pillow and enjoy the prize.
” For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Benjamin Netanyahu floats a unity government proposal in Israel, talks between the Taliban and Afghan government begin slowly, and Italy plans business closures to fight epidemic.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Benjamin Netanyahu floats a unity government proposal in Israel, talks between the Taliban and Afghan government begin slowly, and Italy plans business closures to fight epidemic.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Netanyahu Claims Deal Agreed. Rivals Not Convinced.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed over the weekend that he had agreed to form an emergency unity government with rival Benny Gantz, Haaretz reported. The supposed deal would leave Netanyahu’s Likud party with the posts of prime minister and finance minister with Gantz set to replace Netanyahu as prime minister within a year and a half. “I will leave office on the agreed date,” Netanyahu said, addressing Gantz, “There will be no shticks and tricks. Millions of Israelis are waiting for us.”
Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 12 that although no agreement has been signed yet, Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White party had finished up negotiations on the shape of a unity government. It does not appear that Netanyahu’s oppenents have agreed to the plan.
Can Netanyahu hold on? Israel’s longest serving prime minister has recently found ways to cling to political life: his justice minister closed the court system, delaying his corruption trial until at least May, and by seeking to suspend the Knesset, Speaker Yuli Edelstein, a Likud member, effectively blocked Blue and White from forming parliamentary committees and from electing a new speaker—a move that was challenged in Israel’s supreme court.
The move did not go over well with the public. Nearly 600,000 Israelis showed up for a virtual protest against efforts to shut the Knesset in an event streamed on Facebook Live due to restrictions on large gatherings.
Several luminaries including former domestic intelligence chief Yuval Diskin, ex-Mossad head Efraim Halevy, former Supreme Court vice president Elyakim Rubinstein, TV personality Lucy Aharish, and actress Gila Almagor spoke during the online event.
Supreme Court keeps Knesset open. The court ruled on Sunday that “steps taken to combat coronavirus shouldn’t prevent Knesset activities from going ahead” and members will reportedly enter the chamber six at a time to vote this week while those members under quarantine will cast their votes from home if a method is found to facilitate remote voting.
What has Benny Gantz said? Gantz’s response has been cryptic, initially tweeting “Those who want unity do not work with ultimatums and harmful leaks and certainly do not try to hurt our democracy and citizens by paralyzing the Knesset.” Members of his party do not seem to support any unity government led by Netanyahu.
According to the Jerusalem Post, a Blue and White source argued “Netanyahu doesn’t want unity…He’s been busy undermining democracy and making threats instead of seriously working towards unity. Benny Gantz has been given the mandate to form a government and everyone is united in the effort to make that happen.”
Gantz still has 22 days to form a government after he gained the recommendation of 61 members of the Knesset and was given the go ahead by Israel’s president. Meanwhile, after the court ruling on keeping the Knesset running, Blue and White appears poised to take over key parliamentary committees if the votes go ahead.
What We’re Following Today
Taliban talks open up. The Afghan government and the Taliban made a minor breakthrough in nascent peace talks as a Skype call restarted dialogue on prisoner exchanges. The two-hour meeting, facilitated by the United States and Qatar, is the first time the two sides have spoken since talks stalled over the method of releasing prisoners. The Taliban wants 5,000 prisoners released immediately, whereas Ashraf Ghani’s government wants there to be a phased release.
Earthquake hits Croatia. A 5.3 magnitude earthquake hit Croatia’s capital, Zagreb, yesterday, damaging buildings and injuring 17 people. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic called it the worst earthquake to hit Croatia in 140 years. The country’s health minister, Vili Beros, told residents to maintain caution even as they assess the damage, “Earthquakes are dangerous but coronavirus is even more so,” he said. Croatia has registered 254 cases of coronavirus so far.
New Delhi on lockdown. New Delhi’s 21 million residents will be placed under lockdown until March 31 as India seeks to confront the coronavirus. On Sunday, Indians observed a “janata” curfew, or people’s curfew, as Indians were encouraged to stay at home until 9 p.m. Although the country has only registered 341 cases of coronavirus so far, experts say that low number could be due to lack of testing.
White House confirms Kim Jong Un letter. As a signal of “the special and very firm personal relations” between their leader and U.S. President Donald Trump, North Korea said it had received a letter from the White House seeking cooperation on the coronavirus epidemic. The White House confirmed sending the letter and said it was “consistent with his efforts to engage global leaders during the ongoing pandemic.” North Korea has not halted missile testing during the outbreak, and conducted another round of test launches last Saturday.
Italy closes more businesses. Italy is set to close all nonessential businesses until April 3 as a further measure to combat its coronavirus epidemic. In a live address, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said “only production activities deemed vital for national production will be allowed,” although grocery stores, banks, post offices and pharmacies will remain open. Italy’s coronavirus death toll now stands at 5,476 after 651 people died on Sunday.
Keep an Eye On
Russia’s Italy aid. Russia’s defense ministry said it would send eight mobile medic brigades, special disinfection vehicles, and other medical equipment to Italy under a direct order from President Vladimir Putin. Russia has reported only 306 cases of the coronavirus so far, with one death.
COVID-19 comes to Africa. Three more African countries—Angola, Eritrea, and Uganda—have now confirmed their first coronavirus cases. Although more cases are being reported on the continent, Africa is yet to see the same number of infections as Europe and Asia: Of the 23 countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases so far, none are in Africa. African governments may also have important lessons to teach the West based on their experience battling Ebola, as a former Liberian finance minister, Amara Konneh, argued in Foreign Policy last week.
Coronavirus in Gaza. The densely-populated Gaza Strip has reported its first two cases of coronavirus, after two men returning from Pakistan via Egypt tested positive. Already under blockade, Israel announced it would close its borders with Gaza to commercial traffic but would allow humanitarian staff through. According to the Palestinian health ministry, there have been 59 cases of coronavirus in the West Bank.
More leaders test positive. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul has tested positive for the coronavirus, his office confirmed yesterday. He is the highest-ranking U.S. official so far to become infected. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone into self-quarantine after it emerged her doctor was diagnosed with the coronavirus. Merkel had visited her doctor on Friday to receive a pneumococcal vaccine. Foreign Policy is keeping track of the world leaders who have been infected with the coronavirus with a running list, updated daily.
The World This Week
A preliminary hearing will take place today in the trial of Paul Whelan, the U.S. citizen held in Russia on allegations of espionage since December 2018. Prosecutors are expected to request an extension until October.
Foreign ministers from the G-7 countries will meet Wednesday over video conference ahead of the June G-7 summit. The decision has already been made to cancel an in-person summit because of coronavirus fears.
U.S. lawmakers are expected to hammer out a package to deal with the economic impacts of the coronavirus. A bill is currently being held up over disagreements between Democrats and Republicans on worker protections and corporate aid.
Odds and Ends
Argentina’s president has confirmed that although strict measures are in place as the country goes into lockdown, the tooth fairy will still be allowed to roam freely. Responding to a mother on Twitter whose son had just lost his first tooth, President Alberto Fernandez wrote “The tooth fairy can leave rewards for fallen teeth because he is not under quarantine. But the rest of us are…Joaquin should leave the tooth beneath his pillow and enjoy the prize.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-23--As the West Panics, Putin Is Watching

As the West Panics, Putin Is Watching

As the West Panics , Putin Is Watching Europe is in disarray .
Millions of people are under lockdown , the private sector is on its knees , governments are struggling to counter a completely unexpected adversary while maintaining some semblance of order .
And that ’ s just COVID-19 .
Imagine the impact of an additional crisis at such a moment , caused by one of the West ’ s adversaries .
“ God is watching us from a distance , ” sang Bette Midler .
U.S. and European leaders can be sure that somebody else is also watching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders of countries competing with the West .
The new coronavirus has , as of March 23 , killed more than 14,000 people and infected over 341,000 .
The virus has wiped out all U.S. stock market gains made during Donald Trump ’ s presidency and caused the British pound to drop to a level not seen since the early 1980s .
BMW , Nissan , Daimler , Volkswagen , Fiat , Peugeot , and other carmakers have halted their manufacturing in Europe .
General Motors and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States .
Deutsche Bank is predicting the worst global economic downturn since the end of World War II .
The International Labor Organization has issued warnings of 25 million job losses worldwide .
That ’ s just the tangible damage brought by the vicious virus .
Panic-buying in countries such as the United Kingdom has already emptied shelves ; not even repeated pleas by supermarket chains to “ buy only what you need ” have convinced shoppers to be considerate of others .
Supermarkets have now had to introduce rationing of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us by limiting demand of essential items and allowing us to focus on the core needs of our customers—we are confident that we can continue to feed the nation , ” said the supermarket chain Tesco in a statement .
The massive Defender-Europe 20 exercise , which involves some 40,000 primarily U.S. soldiers practicing a rapid deployment to Europe and advancement through the continent , has been throttled .
The coronavirus has even curtailed Western military activities .
On March 18 , Norway and nine allies ( including Britain and the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a joint exercise practicing the defense of northern and central Norway .
And the massive Defender-Europe 20 exercise , which involves some 40,000 primarily U.S. soldiers practicing a rapid deployment to Europe and advancement through the continent , has been throttled .
“ As of March 13 , all movement of personnel and equipment from the United States to Europe has ceased.… Linked exercises to Exercise Defender-Europe 20—Dynamic Front , Joint Warfighting Assessment , Saber Strike and Swift Response—will not be conducted , ” U.S. Army Europe announced on March 16 .
Defender-Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exercise involving 20,000 U.S. soldiers along with 20,000 pieces of equipment .
The soldiers and materiel would then meet up with Europe-based U.S. troops and equipment as well as European troops and advance toward NATO ’ s eastern front .
Because no such exercise has been conducted in a quarter-century , Defender-Europe 20 is vital .
Defender-Europe 20 “ shows that NATO allies and partners stand stronger together , ” a U.S. Army Europe factsheet explains .
Its cancellation is now showing U.S. and European Union adversaries just how weak NATO can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already infected Gen. Jaroslaw Mika of the Polish armed forces and forced his colleague Lt. Gen. Christopher Cavoli , U.S. Army Europe ’ s commander , to self-isolate as a result .
Propaganda outlets supporting Russia and China are already producing a barrage of coronavirus disinformation aimed at sowing further chaos in the West .
“ Coronavirus could have originated from Latvia , ” suggested Sputnik Latvia on March 15 , while another Russian propaganda outlet , Geopolitica.ru , posited that the coronavirus may have been created in the United States as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in turn , engaged in concerted disinformation campaign , for example suggesting that the coronavirus was created by the U.S. Army .
Mostly , though , the coronavirus remains the only major challenge affecting Western countries .
As bad as it is , that ’ s lucky .
It ’ s safe to assume that Putin and his colleagues are watching the bedlam in Europe and the United States with schadenfreude , but more than that , they ’ re using it for educational purposes .
The coronavirus is a perfect opportunity for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how countries cope—or don ’ t cope—with a major crisis .
After all , an adversary can exploit a crisis by adding a second one .
The United States could , for example , exacerbate Iran ’ s coronavirus misery by imposing even more sanctions—as it did last week—or by staging cyberstrikes against power plants .
( A U.S. cyberattack last September “ took aim at Tehran ’ s ability to spread ‘ propaganda , ’ ” Reuters reported . )
And Russia , China , Iran , North Korea , or proxies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opportunity to conduct massive cyberattacks against Western targets .
According to 2019 Cyber Readiness Report compiled by Hiscox , the global insurer , more than 61 percent of firms in major Western economies , including the United States , reported a cyberattack in the previous 12 months , up from 45 percent the year before .
A major knockout like the 2018 NotPetya virus , which brought down scores of multinationals including the pharmaceutical giant Merck and Maersk , the world ’ s largest shipping company , are rare—but they are bound to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ managed to gain access to the control room of certain U.S. utilities providers .
Although the U.S. Department of Homeland Security didn ’ t identify the companies targeted , Jonathan Homer , the department ’ s chief of industrial control system analysis , told media that the hackers “ got to the point where they could have thrown switches ” and disrupted power flows .
And late last year , an Iranian government-affiliated hacker group known as Refined Kitten further upped the game : Western cyber-analysts discovered that the Iranian hackers could tamper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as electrical utilities , manufacturing plants , and oil refineries .
Putin would need neither cyberattacks nor little green men to weaken the West .
All he ’ d need to do is send a planeload of tuberculosis-infected prisoners to a country of his choice .
Refined Kitten and the Russian hackers didn ’ t interfere with the control system ; they were clearly just conducting reconnaissance .
And they ’ re in no rush .
In warfare , the advantage is with the attacker , who can choose the time and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the case in gray zone warfare , when an attacker ’ s list of options is limited only by their imagination .
Indeed , why not employ another vicious disease next time the West is struggling ?
A couple of years ago I discussed Russian gray zone aggression with a globally noted public health expert who prefers to remain anonymous .
He listened politely , then pointed out that Putin would need neither cyberattacks nor little green men to weaken the West .
All he ’ d need to do , the professor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planeload of tuberculosis-infected prisoners to a country of his choice .
Although Russian prisons ’ TB rate has declined from the astronomic rate of 4,347 per 100,000 prisoners reached in 1999 , in 2011 the figure was still an alarming 1,299 per 100,000 , and Russian prisoners remain one of the world ’ s most TB-infected groups .
( In 2018 , the United States had 2.8 TB infections per 100,000 residents ; Russia had 54 . )
TB is already a health concern in Europe and the United States ; the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If Putin sent 300 TB-infected prisoners to a country of his choice , they could efficiently spread their disease .
To be sure , there ’ s a TB vaccine , but it ’ s not given to every baby and doesn ’ t work well in adults .
Now , as the coronavirus ravages Western economies and health care systems , it would clearly be a good time for the Russians , the Chinese , the North Koreans , the Iranians , or any other country with an ax to grind to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testing might already be happening .
On March 15 , the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services was hit by a cyberattack that overloaded its servers with millions of hits , and around the same time it emerged that impersonators have been copying the Johns Hopkins University ’ s much-used global coronavirus map and loading their versions with malware , thus using a biological virus that ’ s frightening everybody to spread a virtual one to their computers as well .
And on March 17 , the U.K. government unexpectedly acknowledged the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Threats Assessment Team , a government body that monitors foreign spies .
But regardless of whether they opt for biological viruses or computer ones , new forms of disinformation campaigns , supercharged espionage , or another not-yet-seen form of aggression , the West ’ s adversaries can bide their time .
They can wait until they have exhaustively documented the West ’ s failures in responding to the coronavirus .
Those lessons can then be used when another—potentially even worse—crisis hits .
Iran is certainly still waiting to avenge the killing of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A two-front war , involving a combination of Mother Nature ’ s caprice and tricks thought up by adversaries rather than military formations , presents a frightening scenario .
The answer is to be prepared .
And as the coronavirus has made abundantly clear , preparedness involves not just the government but everyone .

Europe is in disarray. Millions of people are under lockdown, the private sector is on its knees, governments are struggling to counter a completely unexpected adversary while maintaining some semblance of order. And that’s just COVID-19. Imagine the impact of an additional crisis at such a moment, caused by one of the West’s adversaries.
Europe is in disarray. Millions of people are under lockdown, the private sector is on its knees, governments are struggling to counter a completely unexpected adversary while maintaining some semblance of order. And that’s just COVID-19. Imagine the impact of an additional crisis at such a moment, caused by one of the West’s adversaries.
“God is watching us from a distance,” sang Bette Midler. U.S. and European leaders can be sure that somebody else is also watching them from a distance, too: Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders of countries competing with the West.
The new coronavirus has, as of March 23, killed more than 14,000 people and infected over 341,000. The virus has wiped out all U.S. stock market gains made during Donald Trump’s presidency and caused the British pound to drop to a level not seen since the early 1980s. BMW, Nissan, Daimler, Volkswagen, Fiat, Peugeot, and other carmakers have halted their manufacturing in Europe. General Motors and Ford have closed all their production in the United States. Deutsche Bank is predicting the worst global economic downturn since the end of World War II. The International Labor Organization has issued warnings of 25 million job losses worldwide.
That’s just the tangible damage brought by the vicious virus. Panic-buying in countries such as the United Kingdom has already emptied shelves; not even repeated pleas by supermarket chains to “buy only what you need” have convinced shoppers to be considerate of others. Supermarkets have now had to introduce rationing of necessities. “If you could help us by limiting demand of essential items and allowing us to focus on the core needs of our customers—we are confident that we can continue to feed the nation,” said the supermarket chain Tesco in a statement.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
The massive Defender-Europe 20 exercise, which involves some 40,000 primarily U.S. soldiers practicing a rapid deployment to Europe and advancement through the continent, has been throttled.
The coronavirus has even curtailed Western military activities. On March 18, Norway and nine allies (including Britain and the United States) called off Cold Response 2020, a joint exercise practicing the defense of northern and central Norway. And the massive Defender-Europe 20 exercise, which involves some 40,000 primarily U.S. soldiers practicing a rapid deployment to Europe and advancement through the continent, has been throttled. “As of March 13, all movement of personnel and equipment from the United States to Europe has ceased.… Linked exercises to Exercise Defender-Europe 20—Dynamic Front, Joint Warfighting Assessment, Saber Strike and Swift Response—will not be conducted,” U.S. Army Europe announced on March 16.
Defender-Europe 20 was meant to be a complex exercise involving 20,000 U.S. soldiers along with 20,000 pieces of equipment. The soldiers and materiel would then meet up with Europe-based U.S. troops and equipment as well as European troops and advance toward NATO’s eastern front. Because no such exercise has been conducted in a quarter-century, Defender-Europe 20 is vital. Defender-Europe 20 “shows that NATO allies and partners stand stronger together,” a U.S. Army Europe factsheet explains. Its cancellation is now showing U.S. and European Union adversaries just how weak NATO can be under certain circumstances.
The virus had already infected Gen. Jaroslaw Mika of the Polish armed forces and forced his colleague Lt. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, U.S. Army Europe’s commander, to self-isolate as a result.
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Propaganda outlets supporting Russia and China are already producing a barrage of coronavirus disinformation aimed at sowing further chaos in the West. “Coronavirus could have originated from Latvia,” suggested Sputnik Latvia on March 15, while another Russian propaganda outlet, Geopolitica.ru, posited that the coronavirus may have been created in the United States as a biological weapon. Chinese diplomats are, in turn, engaged in concerted disinformation campaign, for example suggesting that the coronavirus was created by the U.S. Army.
Mostly, though, the coronavirus remains the only major challenge affecting Western countries. As bad as it is, that’s lucky. It’s safe to assume that Putin and his colleagues are watching the bedlam in Europe and the United States with schadenfreude, but more than that, they’re using it for educational purposes. The coronavirus is a perfect opportunity for the West’s adversaries to watch how countries cope—or don’t cope—with a major crisis.
After all, an adversary can exploit a crisis by adding a second one. The United States could, for example, exacerbate Iran’s coronavirus misery by imposing even more sanctions—as it did last week—or by staging cyberstrikes against power plants. (A U.S. cyberattack last September “took aim at Tehran’s ability to spread ‘propaganda,’” Reuters reported.) And Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, or proxies operating on their behalf could use this opportunity to conduct massive cyberattacks against Western targets.
According to 2019 Cyber Readiness Report compiled by Hiscox, the global insurer, more than 61 percent of firms in major Western economies, including the United States, reported a cyberattack in the previous 12 months, up from 45 percent the year before.
A major knockout like the 2018 NotPetya virus, which brought down scores of multinationals including the pharmaceutical giant Merck and Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, are rare—but they are bound to happen again.
Russian attackers have already managed to gain access to the control room of certain U.S. utilities providers. Although the U.S. Department of Homeland Security didn’t identify the companies targeted, Jonathan Homer, the department’s chief of industrial control system analysis, told media that the hackers “got to the point where they could have thrown switches” and disrupted power flows. And late last year, an Iranian government-affiliated hacker group known as Refined Kitten further upped the game: Western cyber-analysts discovered that the Iranian hackers could tamper with the control systems of vital installations such as electrical utilities, manufacturing plants, and oil refineries.
Putin would need neither cyberattacks nor little green men to weaken the West. All he’d need to do is send a planeload of tuberculosis-infected prisoners to a country of his choice.
Refined Kitten and the Russian hackers didn’t interfere with the control system; they were clearly just conducting reconnaissance. And they’re in no rush. In warfare, the advantage is with the attacker, who can choose the time and manner of action—and that’s especially the case in gray zone warfare, when an attacker’s list of options is limited only by their imagination.
Indeed, why not employ another vicious disease next time the West is struggling? A couple of years ago I discussed Russian gray zone aggression with a globally noted public health expert who prefers to remain anonymous. He listened politely, then pointed out that Putin would need neither cyberattacks nor little green men to weaken the West. All he’d need to do, the professor told me, was to send a planeload of tuberculosis-infected prisoners to a country of his choice.
Although Russian prisons’ TB rate has declined from the astronomic rate of 4,347 per 100,000 prisoners reached in 1999, in 2011 the figure was still an alarming 1,299 per 100,000, and Russian prisoners remain one of the world’s most TB-infected groups. (In 2018, the United States had 2.8 TB infections per 100,000 residents; Russia had 54.) TB is already a health concern in Europe and the United States; the spread of vaccine-resistant strains is particularly worrisome. If Putin sent 300 TB-infected prisoners to a country of his choice, they could efficiently spread their disease. To be sure, there’s a TB vaccine, but it’s not given to every baby and doesn’t work well in adults.
Now, as the coronavirus ravages Western economies and health care systems, it would clearly be a good time for the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans, the Iranians, or any other country with an ax to grind to open a second front.
Some second-front testing might already be happening. On March 15, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services was hit by a cyberattack that overloaded its servers with millions of hits, and around the same time it emerged that impersonators have been copying the Johns Hopkins University’s much-used global coronavirus map and loading their versions with malware, thus using a biological virus that’s frightening everybody to spread a virtual one to their computers as well. And on March 17, the U.K. government unexpectedly acknowledged the existence of the hitherto secret Joint State Threats Assessment Team, a government body that monitors foreign spies.
But regardless of whether they opt for biological viruses or computer ones, new forms of disinformation campaigns, supercharged espionage, or another not-yet-seen form of aggression, the West’s adversaries can bide their time. They can wait until they have exhaustively documented the West’s failures in responding to the coronavirus. Those lessons can then be used when another—potentially even worse—crisis hits. Iran is certainly still waiting to avenge the killing of its military commander Qassem Suleimani this January.
A two-front war, involving a combination of Mother Nature’s caprice and tricks thought up by adversaries rather than military formations, presents a frightening scenario. The answer is to be prepared. And as the coronavirus has made abundantly clear, preparedness involves not just the government but everyone.