foreignpolicy--2020-05-07--Why U.S. Unemployment Is Sky-High and Europe’s Isn’t

Why U.S. Unemployment Is Sky-High and Europe ’ s Isn ’ t Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Early unemployment numbers spell more trouble for the U.S. economy , Netanyahu cleared to form a government , and Iraq approves a new prime minister .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
A new estimate by the payroll software company ADP has grim news for an already battered U.S. economy .
On Wednesday , ADP—whose database covers almost a fifth of U.S. businesses—estimated that 20,236,000 U.S. residents lost their jobs in the private sector from March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of economists by MarketWatch estimated that 22 million jobs were lost in April and that the unemployment rate could hit 15 percent .
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S. employment situation on Friday , with similar numbers expected .
A tale of two policies .
The U.S. unemployment rate is growing at a much higher rate than Europe ’ s , despite the multi-billion dollar Paycheck Protection Program enacted by the federal government—offering forgivable loans to businesses if they retain their employees .
Roughly $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fund and , so far , the growing unemployment figures show the results .
“ It has been a disastrous program , ” Joseph Stiglitz , a Nobel-winning economist at Columbia University told Foreign Policy on April 24 .
“ The money is not going to where it ’ s needed most .
The most vulnerable are not getting the money .
The second point is that it was designed to encourage businesses to keep their workers , but no one trusted the Trump administration on debt forgiveness.
” Stiglitz thinks the money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We ’ ve estimated the cost of just giving money to workers directly .
It ’ s a fraction of what we ’ re now spending , ” he said .
Most European countries have opted for Stiglitz ’ s preferred policy , with governments offering to pay workers a high proportion of their wages rather than have them lose their jobs entirely .
FP ’ s Keith Johnson and Michael Hirsh explored the differences between the two approaches in an April 24 article .
“ To get an idea of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convulsions , one top German economist warned that unemployment could “ skyrocket ” to 5.9 percent this year due to the economic paralysis .
The U.S. unemployment rate is already approaching 20 percent , ” they wrote .
But Europe is not out of the woods .
Along with the debt likely to accumulate as a result of governments underwriting workers ’ salaries during the pandemic , it ’ s possible Europe could see a repeat of the 2008 crisis .
Then , the United States acted aggressively and relatively generously while the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guided by the ideology of austerity .
On Wednesday , the EU ’ s economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni warned that poor national coordination and limited EU action would produce “ serious distortions to the single market and our economic and monetary union.
” Speaking during the release of the EU ’ s spring economic forecast , he predicted the EU ’ s unemployment rate would reach as high as 9 percent , with the effects felt unevenly across member states .
The EU has already seen the same factionalism between north and south @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial crisis : The so-called Frugal Four—Germany , Austria , the Netherlands , and Finland—have already tried to block a so-called eurobond program , suggesting such moves are fiscally irresponsible .
On Tuesday , a German constitutional court threatened Germany ’ s participation in a bloc-wide bond buying program if the European Central Bank couldn ’ t show such maneuvers were within its remit .
Where ’ s Europe ’ s Alexander Hamilton ?
Writing in Foreign Policy last month , Dalibor Rohac of the American Enterprise Institute urged fellow European conservatives to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt .
“ The concern about fiscally prudent nations endlessly subsidizing the less disciplined ones , which I then shared , guided the choices of European leaders in the last financial crisis , ” he wrote .
But today ’ s crisis calls for different measures—and a bolder policy .
“ Compared with the potential for economic destruction from the current deep freeze of the global economy , ” Rohac argued , “ the prospect of financial mismanagement in some European countries , subsidized by taxpayers in other countries , may be vexing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ form government .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu surmounted the latest hurdle in his bid to retain power , as the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that his corruption charges should not get in the way of forming a government .
Netanyahu and his political rival , Benny Gantz , agreed a power-sharing deal in April after almost a year of deadlock and multiple elections .
The new coalition partners expect their government to be sworn in next week .
While the Supreme Court has allowed Netanyahu to continue in government , it pointed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preemptive absolution from his impending corruption trial .
“ The legal conclusion we reached does not diminish the severity of the pending charges against MK Netanyahu for violations of moral integrity and the difficulty derived from the tenure of a prime minister accused of criminal activity , ” the court said .
Captured American appears on Venezuelan state television .
One of the two Americans detained in Venezuela as part of an alleged invasion attempt has appeared on Venezuelan state television , two days after his arrest .
Luke Denman , a former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that their plan involved capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and flying him to the United States .
The U.S. State Department has been at pains to point out that U.S. authorities were not involved in the botched raid .
“ There was no U.S. government direct involvement in this operation , ” Pompeo said .
“ [ If ] we ’ d have been involved , it would have gone differently.
” Pompeo did not confirm whether the Americans were detained in Venezuela but said that if they were , the U.S. would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If the Maduro regime decides to hold them , we will use every tool that we have available to try and get them back , ” he said .
Scientists find more coronavirus origin clues .
A genetic study by scientists at University College London ’ s Genetics Institute has estimated the coronavirus pandemic began sometime between Oct. 6 and Dec. 11 of last year .
This tracks with a recent discovery by a physician in France that a patient diagnosed with suspected pneumonia on Dec. 27 was already infected with the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s co-leader , said that although the virus has mutated over time , he is not convinced that is cause for further alarm .
“ All viruses naturally mutate .
Mutations in themselves are not a bad thing and there is nothing to suggest SARS-CoV-2 is mutating faster or slower than expected , ” he said , using the name for the virus that causes COVID-19 .
“ So far , we can not say whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more or less lethal and contagious.
” Poland postpones presidential election .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take place on Sunday , has now been postponed .
The ruling Law and Justice party had pushed for the election to go ahead , but a dispute over how to enact postal voting on short notice derailed their plan .
Writing in Foreign Policy on May 4 , Zselyke Csaky and Sarah Repucci of Freedom House warned of the serious risk that a May 10 election would be “ neither free nor fair , ” as the rush to enact new laws opened the door to ballot tampering .
The government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first possible date , ” but has yet to give any specifics .
Coming soon , to the EU ?
The 27 member states of the European Union declared their “ unequivocal support ” for the six Balkan nations of Albania , Bosnia , Kosovo , Montenegro , North Macedonia , and Serbia to eventually join the bloc .
“ The Western Balkans belong in the EU .
There is no question for us about this , ” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement .
The comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Balkan states held via video conference .
The declaration of support comes as Freedom House released its annual “ Nations in Transit ” report , showing a decline in democratic norms globally .
Freedom House no longer considers EU member Hungary a democracy , instead demoting it to the level of a “ hybrid regime.
” Serbia and Montenegro , two of the Balkan countries feted on Wednesday , were also demoted to that level .
Iraq ’ s new government .
Mustafa al-Kadhimi has been designated as the next prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new government on Wednesday .
He begins his tenure without a full cabinet , as Iraq ’ s parliament rejected his nominations for the trade , agriculture , and justice ministries .
Votes on who will head the oil and foreign ministries have been delayed as a candidate has yet to be agreed upon .
Kadhimi said his first priority would be dealing with the country ’ s coronavirus epidemic .
More than 80 rental cars have been recovered after a major car heist in New Zealand .
The thieves took advantage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national holiday weekend .
They made off with 97 cars after breaking into an Auckland car rental lot belonging to the company Jucy , opting for Hondas and Mazdas rather than Jucy ’ s well-known bright-green camper vans .
“ It ’ s disappointing—this is the biggest car theft I ’ ve ever seen , ” Matt Srhoj , a local police inspector , said .
The criminals apparently did not consider that the stolen cars might be conspicuous on the country ’ s nearly empty roads ; police realized something was afoot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police and the cars involved were traced to Jucy .
Once the public found out about the theft , they helped police locate the cars as several vehicles were advertised for sale online at cut-rate prices .
Jucy was even given free billboard advertising to spread awareness .
The campaign was successful , and almost all of the cars have now been recovered .
“ We got 85 back so far and there ’ s no reason why we shouldn ’ t get the other 12 as well , ” Srhoj said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Early unemployment numbers spell more trouble for the U.S. economy, Netanyahu cleared to form a government, and Iraq approves a new prime minister.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Early unemployment numbers spell more trouble for the U.S. economy, Netanyahu cleared to form a government, and Iraq approves a new prime minister.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Early Jobs Numbers Outline Extent of U.S. Employment Crisis
A new estimate by the payroll software company ADP has grim news for an already battered U.S. economy. On Wednesday, ADP—whose database covers almost a fifth of U.S. businesses—estimated that 20,236,000 U.S. residents lost their jobs in the private sector from March 12 to April 12.
A poll of economists by MarketWatch estimated that 22 million jobs were lost in April and that the unemployment rate could hit 15 percent. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S. employment situation on Friday, with similar numbers expected.
A tale of two policies. The U.S. unemployment rate is growing at a much higher rate than Europe’s, despite the multi-billion dollar Paycheck Protection Program enacted by the federal government—offering forgivable loans to businesses if they retain their employees. Roughly $670 billion has been committed to the fund and, so far, the growing unemployment figures show the results.
“It has been a disastrous program,” Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-winning economist at Columbia University told Foreign Policy on April 24. “The money is not going to where it’s needed most. The most vulnerable are not getting the money. The second point is that it was designed to encourage businesses to keep their workers, but no one trusted the Trump administration on debt forgiveness.”
Stiglitz thinks the money is going in the wrong direction. “We’ve estimated the cost of just giving money to workers directly. It’s a fraction of what we’re now spending,” he said.
Most European countries have opted for Stiglitz’s preferred policy, with governments offering to pay workers a high proportion of their wages rather than have them lose their jobs entirely. FP’s Keith Johnson and Michael Hirsh explored the differences between the two approaches in an April 24 article. “To get an idea of the difference between German and U.S. labor market convulsions, one top German economist warned that unemployment could “skyrocket” to 5.9 percent this year due to the economic paralysis. The U.S. unemployment rate is already approaching 20 percent,” they wrote.
But Europe is not out of the woods. Along with the debt likely to accumulate as a result of governments underwriting workers’ salaries during the pandemic, it’s possible Europe could see a repeat of the 2008 crisis. Then, the United States acted aggressively and relatively generously while the EU’s response was disjointed and guided by the ideology of austerity.
On Wednesday, the EU’s economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni warned that poor national coordination and limited EU action would produce “serious distortions to the single market and our economic and monetary union.” Speaking during the release of the EU’s spring economic forecast, he predicted the EU’s unemployment rate would reach as high as 9 percent, with the effects felt unevenly across member states.
The EU has already seen the same factionalism between north and south that marred rescue efforts during the 2008 financial crisis: The so-called Frugal Four—Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Finland—have already tried to block a so-called eurobond program, suggesting such moves are fiscally irresponsible. On Tuesday, a German constitutional court threatened Germany’s participation in a bloc-wide bond buying program if the European Central Bank couldn’t show such maneuvers were within its remit.
Where’s Europe’s Alexander Hamilton? Writing in Foreign Policy last month, Dalibor Rohac of the American Enterprise Institute urged fellow European conservatives to abandon such hawkish views and embrace mutual debt. “The concern about fiscally prudent nations endlessly subsidizing the less disciplined ones, which I then shared, guided the choices of European leaders in the last financial crisis,” he wrote. But today’s crisis calls for different measures—and a bolder policy. “Compared with the potential for economic destruction from the current deep freeze of the global economy,” Rohac argued, “the prospect of financial mismanagement in some European countries, subsidized by taxpayers in other countries, may be vexing but is trivial.”
What We’re Following Today
Netanyahu cleared to form government. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu surmounted the latest hurdle in his bid to retain power, as the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that his corruption charges should not get in the way of forming a government. Netanyahu and his political rival, Benny Gantz, agreed a power-sharing deal in April after almost a year of deadlock and multiple elections. The new coalition partners expect their government to be sworn in next week.
While the Supreme Court has allowed Netanyahu to continue in government, it pointed out that the ruling was not a preemptive absolution from his impending corruption trial. “The legal conclusion we reached does not diminish the severity of the pending charges against MK Netanyahu for violations of moral integrity and the difficulty derived from the tenure of a prime minister accused of criminal activity,” the court said.
Captured American appears on Venezuelan state television. One of the two Americans detained in Venezuela as part of an alleged invasion attempt has appeared on Venezuelan state television, two days after his arrest. Luke Denman, a former U.S. special operations forces member, said that their plan involved capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and flying him to the United States.
The U.S. State Department has been at pains to point out that U.S. authorities were not involved in the botched raid. “There was no U.S. government direct involvement in this operation,” Pompeo said. “[If] we’d have been involved, it would have gone differently.” Pompeo did not confirm whether the Americans were detained in Venezuela but said that if they were, the U.S. would work at securing their release. “If the Maduro regime decides to hold them, we will use every tool that we have available to try and get them back,” he said.
Scientists find more coronavirus origin clues. A genetic study by scientists at University College London’s Genetics Institute has estimated the coronavirus pandemic began sometime between Oct. 6 and Dec. 11 of last year. This tracks with a recent discovery by a physician in France that a patient diagnosed with suspected pneumonia on Dec. 27 was already infected with the coronavirus.
Francois Balloux, the UCL study’s co-leader, said that although the virus has mutated over time, he is not convinced that is cause for further alarm. “All viruses naturally mutate. Mutations in themselves are not a bad thing and there is nothing to suggest SARS-CoV-2 is mutating faster or slower than expected,” he said, using the name for the virus that causes COVID-19. “So far, we cannot say whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more or less lethal and contagious.”
Poland postpones presidential election. A controversial presidential election in Poland, due to take place on Sunday, has now been postponed. The ruling Law and Justice party had pushed for the election to go ahead, but a dispute over how to enact postal voting on short notice derailed their plan. Writing in Foreign Policy on May 4, Zselyke Csaky and Sarah Repucci of Freedom House warned of the serious risk that a May 10 election would be “neither free nor fair,” as the rush to enact new laws opened the door to ballot tampering. The government plans to hold the election “on the first possible date,” but has yet to give any specifics.
Keep an Eye On
Coming soon, to the EU? The 27 member states of the European Union declared their “unequivocal support” for the six Balkan nations of Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia to eventually join the bloc. “The Western Balkans belong in the EU. There is no question for us about this,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. The comments came after a summit between the EU and the Balkan states held via video conference.
The declaration of support comes as Freedom House released its annual “Nations in Transit” report, showing a decline in democratic norms globally. Freedom House no longer considers EU member Hungary a democracy, instead demoting it to the level of a “hybrid regime.” Serbia and Montenegro, two of the Balkan countries feted on Wednesday, were also demoted to that level.
Iraq’s new government. Mustafa al-Kadhimi has been designated as the next prime minister of Iraq after Iraqi lawmakers approved a new government on Wednesday. He begins his tenure without a full cabinet, as Iraq’s parliament rejected his nominations for the trade, agriculture, and justice ministries. Votes on who will head the oil and foreign ministries have been delayed as a candidate has yet to be agreed upon. Kadhimi said his first priority would be dealing with the country’s coronavirus epidemic.
Odds and Ends
More than 80 rental cars have been recovered after a major car heist in New Zealand. The thieves took advantage of strict coronavirus lockdown measures during a national holiday weekend. They made off with 97 cars after breaking into an Auckland car rental lot belonging to the company Jucy, opting for Hondas and Mazdas rather than Jucy’s well-known bright-green camper vans. “It’s disappointing—this is the biggest car theft I’ve ever seen,” Matt Srhoj, a local police inspector, said.
The criminals apparently did not consider that the stolen cars might be conspicuous on the country’s nearly empty roads; police realized something was afoot when several drivers refused to stop for police and the cars involved were traced to Jucy. Once the public found out about the theft, they helped police locate the cars as several vehicles were advertised for sale online at cut-rate prices. Jucy was even given free billboard advertising to spread awareness. The campaign was successful, and almost all of the cars have now been recovered. “We got 85 back so far and there’s no reason why we shouldn’t get the other 12 as well,” Srhoj said.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-08--Tales From the Lockdown: How COVID-19 Has Changed Lives Around the World

Foreign Policy spoke to people in Belarus , Cambodia , Chile , India , South Africa , and South Korea to get a snapshot of how the coronavirus has changed the way people live their lives around the world .
When Jess Byun returned to South Korea from the United Kingdom , where she is a graduate student at University College London , she was taken by a government-arranged bus to a resort .
There , she waited for five hours while the cleaning staff disinfected a room for her ( a process that involves leaving the room alone for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She was then taken to a tent outside where she was tested for the coronavirus .
The next day , after she tested negative , she was sent home and asked to complete 14 days of self-isolation .
Byun documented her experience in a video on YouTube .
On Sunday , South Korean Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun announced that social distancing restrictions that had been in place since March would be relaxed starting May 6 .
Gatherings and events would be allowed to take place while businesses would also be allowed to reopen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the restrictions were lifted , South Korea never saw the kinds of lockdown measures implemented in many other countries around the world .
“ Nobody stops you at all .
Going outside or not is your own choice , ” Byun told Foreign Policy in late April .
“ In some indoor places like banks or offices , wearing a face mask is required , and they encourage you to wash your hands as frequently as possible.
” By the end of February , South Korea had the highest number of confirmed coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But an aggressive testing and contact tracing strategy enabled the country to get a handle on its outbreak without implementing blanket lockdowns .
To date , South Korea has reported just under 11,000 confirmed cases of the virus and fewer than 300 deaths .
Like Taiwan , which has also so far successfully contained the virus , South Korea has had previous experience with outbreaks of infectious diseases .
After experiencing an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2015 , South Korea adopted new infectious disease legislation that gave health authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ geographical data in phones to fight outbreaks .
Once in self-isolation , Byun was given a quarantine package from her local health center .
It included tips on how to manage her mental health while self-isolating , a large bottle of hand sanitizer , two bottles of disinfectant spray , and face masks .
And the help didn ’ t stop there .
“ When I was in self-isolation , my local public health center called me to ask if I ’ m doing OK , if I need anything , and to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Byun said .
Sor Chandra , who works at an international nongovernmental organization in Cambodia ’ s development sector , was hoping to visit his family during the Khmer New Year in mid-April .
But due to a new set of lockdown restrictions on April 7 , he was unable to .
“ At New Year , I didn ’ t visit my family , ” said Chandra , who works in the country ’ s capital of Phnom Penh .
“ Every year , I must go home—it ’ s like Christmas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in my room alone.
” In the early days of the coronavirus , Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen , Asia ’ s longest-serving leader , was slow to take action out of fear of offending his country ’ s main financial backer , China .
In the early days of the outbreak , he refused to repatriate Cambodian citizens from Wuhan , where the virus originated , and chided reporters for wearing face masks .
But as the epicenter of the virus shifted from China to Europe and the United States , authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures .
Schools , restaurants , and casinos have been closed and flights canceled , but crowded garment factories , which account for some 40 percent of the country ’ s GDP , remain open .
“ The government has encouraged people not to go out unless it ’ s a necessity , but it doesn ’ t mean a mandate that you have to be inside , ” Chandra said .
“ It ’ s just an encouragement not to spread the coronavirus.
” In April , Hun Sen canceled celebrations for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people would spread the virus by returning home to their villages for the festivities .
During that time , Chandra said , his country looked unrecognizable .
“ When I go out on the street , it ’ s empty , I mean almost empty , ” Chandra told Foreign Policy in late April .
“ People are still driving motorbikes , but less motorbikes , less cars .
It ’ s strange.
” Despite its initial delay in responding to the virus , Cambodia has not seen a dramatic surge in infections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmed cases in the country , although questions have been raised about Cambodia ’ s testing strategy .
Despite the threat of a second wave of coronavirus cases , Chandra said he has begun to see people back outside , emboldened by the news that the curve has seemingly flattened .
“ People are coming back , ” Chandra said .
“ People are starting to get out , start to travel .
Not fully , but they ’ re getting out .
People are less tense now.
” Mzwakhe Tyali , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t drink .
But after South Africa banned the sale of alcohol and cigarettes as part of its lockdown measures , his friends began brewing beer from their homes to deal with quarantine .
“ It ’ s been interesting to see the lengths people want to go to get their alcohol consumption , ” Tyali said .
“ For me , I would have taken it as a good thing .
Like you get to , what do you call it , detox for more than 21 days , which is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get rid of that habit.
” South African health officials say that memories of the country ’ s disastrous response to HIV/AIDS , where misinformation and denialism cost hundreds of thousands of lives , have spurred its reaction to the coronavirus crisis .
South Africa began to gradually ease its lockdown on May 1 , but until then the country had implemented one of the strictest lockdowns in the world as 70,000 troops were brought in to enforce it .
All outdoor activities were prohibited , including dog walking , which has often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under strict lockdowns .
Citizens were allowed to leave their homes only to buy food , and only essential workers were permitted on public transport .
Tyali said the military and police enforcement of the lockdown was not evenly spread throughout the country .
“ I think they focus more on going to the places where there are a lot of cases and also [ places ] with a lot of black people , ” he said .
One of his friends was sent home when trying to buy groceries at 5 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social media of South Africans being forced to do pushups and frog jumps for breaking the lockdown .
Whips and rubber bullets have also been used to enforce restrictions on movement .
The lockdown has also brought a crime wave to the country .
Dozens of schools have been burgled , trashed , or burned to the ground .
There have also been robberies of dozens of liquor stores .
However , perhaps the most startling crime trend has been the increase of gender-based violence .
In the 16 days after the lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gender-based violence .
Tyali has been able to protect himself from most of the more violent measures of the lockdown , secluding himself indoors and watching anime .
Thus far he hasn ’ t faced a shortage of food , but he is worried about his parents , and he is unlikely to be the only one .
South Africa has been described by the World Bank as the most economically unequal country in the world , a disparity that the pandemic will only drive deeper .
“ My mom is a domestic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Tyali said .
“ Because now it ’ s going to be the end of the month , and they ’ ve been home for the whole month , I ’ m not sure if she will get paid .
That ’ s my worry—if they ’ re going to be able to survive the next month of this lockdown.
” Normally , at this time of year , Omar Khan and his family would be preparing to go to the mosque for the start of Ramadan .
But after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their doors as the country went into lockdown , he and his family have been forced to celebrate at home .
While Khan said he and his family have prayed at home before , the atmosphere has changed under the pandemic .
“ Everything feels very different when you have the head of the mosque take to the mic and say , ‘ Look , the times are very difficult.
’ When you hear those things on loudspeakers during the night , it ’ s a completely different , surreal sort of situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Indians were given four hours ’ notice by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the country would be placed on lockdown , confining 1.3 billion people to their homes for 21 days .
A curfew was imposed , and most businesses were closed .
As a result , a staggering number of Indians lost their jobs , with the last count being 140 million unemployed people .
The lockdown measures also saw a massive internal migration as Indians fled cities to return to their villages , leaving some of the world ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ India is such a populous country , ” Khan said , “ and when you see empty roads , empty alleyways , you don ’ t see people the way they are , it feels very real.
” India ’ s lockdown restrictions , which began to ease this week , were some of the most strictly enforced in the world .
Videos emerged of police beating and whipping people found to be disobeying the rules .
When Khan leaves his home , he is often stopped by police , but since he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is allowed to continue .
However , the police presence is everywhere , and Khan said he has seen large groups of police officers patrolling the streets and often wakes up to blaring police sirens in the night .
India ’ s 200 million Muslims face another unique challenge during the pandemic : violence and harassment .
The country ’ s largest religious minority , Muslims have been scapegoated and accused of spreading the virus , allegations that have been fueled by TV news and some members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social media , where Khan ’ s friends often ask him about claims they saw on WhatsApp or conspiracy theories they found on YouTube .
One of his friends recently asked him if it was true that Muslims wanted to spread the coronavirus .
“ I said , ‘ Come on man , do you seriously think someone would deliberately get themselves infected and then go out and start spreading the virus ?
” Khan said .
“ You know the general animosity is incredible .
You can not target one community.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it would move ahead with a controversial plan to introduce immunity passports to people who had recovered from COVID-19 , the disease caused by the coronavirus , enabling them to go back to work .
Immunity passports are based on the assumption that people who have had the virus have developed antibodies that will protect them from contracting it a second time , but the World Health Organization has warned there is no evidence of this .
Before the pandemic , Chile was rocked with mass protests against inequality and government corruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ constitution into question , but demonstrations have been put on hold as lockdowns came into force .
“ The sentiment of Chileans is very divided according to social class , ” said Pedro Prado , a recent graduate of legal studies from the University of Chile who lives in Santiago .
“ Despite masks being obligatory , it ’ s practically a privilege for those who have more resources.
” The price of N95 medical masks has nearly doubled since the lockdowns began , rising to $ 7 .
Prado said the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have serious consequences on vulnerable populations , referring to an interview last month by the general manager of the Santiago Chamber of Commerce , who said , “ We don ’ t have to kill every economic activity to save lives.
” It may be older adults who subsist on Chile ’ s precarious welfare and retirement systems , or those in job markets that provide limited or day-to-day income , who would be neglected , he explained .
“ But who are the lives that we should sacrifice to save the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We should be willing to endure this as a society in order to get on with our normal lives.
” The president of Belarus has once again distinguished himself for all the wrong reasons .
Aleksandr Lukashenko , who has ruled the country since 1994 , has described fears of the virus as a “ psychosis , ” prescribing vodka and a sauna instead of social distancing .
Some Belarusians have taken matters into their own hands , implementing a “ people ’ s quarantine , ” said Hanna Liubakova , a freelance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We are used to the situation where the authorities are saying one thing , that there is no crisis , but we know that something bad is happening and that we have to be prepared , ” she said .
Volunteers have worked to crowdfund , source , and deliver protective equipment to front-line hospital workers .
Other grassroots efforts have worked to sew and deliver masks , make meals for health care workers , and look after the pets of people hospitalized with the virus , Liubakova said .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president is gradually losing his power and authority in the eyes of many Belarusians , she said .

Darcy Palder, Amy Mackinnon and Kelly Kimball

Almost no nation has been spared as the novel coronavirus has swept around the world. But responses to the coronavirus have differed greatly from country to country. Quarantines and lockdowns have become ubiquitous, but even then there is great variance in their severity. In South Africa, tens of thousands of troops have been brought in to enforce one of the world’s strictest lockdowns, while countries like South Korea and Taiwan have managed to contain their outbreaks without closing everything down.
Foreign Policy spoke to people in Belarus, Cambodia, Chile, India, South Africa, and South Korea to get a snapshot of how the coronavirus has changed the way people live their lives around the world.
South Korea
When Jess Byun returned to South Korea from the United Kingdom, where she is a graduate student at University College London, she was taken by a government-arranged bus to a resort. There, she waited for five hours while the cleaning staff disinfected a room for her (a process that involves leaving the room alone for three hours after the cleaning). She was then taken to a tent outside where she was tested for the coronavirus. The next day, after she tested negative, she was sent home and asked to complete 14 days of self-isolation. Byun documented her experience in a video on YouTube.
On Sunday, South Korean Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun announced that social distancing restrictions that had been in place since March would be relaxed starting May 6. Gatherings and events would be allowed to take place while businesses would also be allowed to reopen in phases. However, even before the restrictions were lifted, South Korea never saw the kinds of lockdown measures implemented in many other countries around the world. “Nobody stops you at all. Going outside or not is your own choice,” Byun told Foreign Policy in late April. “In some indoor places like banks or offices, wearing a face mask is required, and they encourage you to wash your hands as frequently as possible.”
By the end of February, South Korea had the highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the world outside mainland China. But an aggressive testing and contact tracing strategy enabled the country to get a handle on its outbreak without implementing blanket lockdowns. To date, South Korea has reported just under 11,000 confirmed cases of the virus and fewer than 300 deaths. Like Taiwan, which has also so far successfully contained the virus, South Korea has had previous experience with outbreaks of infectious diseases. After experiencing an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2015, South Korea adopted new infectious disease legislation that gave health authorities sweeping power to use CCTV footage and geographical data in phones to fight outbreaks.
Once in self-isolation, Byun was given a quarantine package from her local health center. It included tips on how to manage her mental health while self-isolating, a large bottle of hand sanitizer, two bottles of disinfectant spray, and face masks. And the help didn’t stop there. “When I was in self-isolation, my local public health center called me to ask if I’m doing OK, if I need anything, and to monitor my location as well,” Byun said.
Cambodian workers exit a garment factory as they take a lunch break in Phnom Penh on March 2.
Cambodia
Sor Chandara, who works at an international nongovernmental organization in Cambodia’s development sector, was hoping to visit his family during the Khmer New Year in mid-April. But due to a new set of lockdown restrictions on April 7, he was unable to.
“At New Year, I didn’t visit my family,” said Chandara, who works in the country’s capital of Phnom Penh. “Every year, I must go home—it’s like Christmas. And this year, I eat in my room alone.”
In the early days of the coronavirus, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, Asia’s longest-serving leader, was slow to take action out of fear of offending his country’s main financial backer, China. In the early days of the outbreak, he refused to repatriate Cambodian citizens from Wuhan, where the virus originated, and chided reporters for wearing face masks. But as the epicenter of the virus shifted from China to Europe and the United States, authorities in the country began to implement preventive measures. Schools, restaurants, and casinos have been closed and flights canceled, but crowded garment factories, which account for some 40 percent of the country’s GDP, remain open.
“The government has encouraged people not to go out unless it’s a necessity, but it doesn’t mean a mandate that you have to be inside,” Chandara said. “It’s just an encouragement not to spread the coronavirus.”
In April, Hun Sen canceled celebrations for the Khmer New Year over fears that people would spread the virus by returning home to their villages for the festivities. During that time, Chandara said, his country looked unrecognizable. “When I go out on the street, it’s empty, I mean almost empty,” Chandara told Foreign Policy in late April. “People are still driving motorbikes, but less motorbikes, less cars. It’s strange.”
Despite its initial delay in responding to the virus, Cambodia has not seen a dramatic surge in infections. There are currently just over 120 confirmed cases in the country, although questions have been raised about Cambodia’s testing strategy.
Despite the threat of a second wave of coronavirus cases, Chandara said he has begun to see people back outside, emboldened by the news that the curve has seemingly flattened. “People are coming back,” Chandara said. “People are starting to get out, start to travel. Not fully, but they’re getting out. People are less tense now.”
A South African policeman points his pump rifle to disperse a crowd of shoppers in Yeoville, Johannesburg, on March 28 while trying to enforce a distancing measures outside a supermarket amid concern about the spread of the coronavirus.
South Africa
Mzwakhe Tyali, a student at Stellenbosch University, doesn’t drink. But after South Africa banned the sale of alcohol and cigarettes as part of its lockdown measures, his friends began brewing beer from their homes to deal with quarantine.
“It’s been interesting to see the lengths people want to go to get their alcohol consumption,” Tyali said. “For me, I would have taken it as a good thing. Like you get to, what do you call it, detox for more than 21 days, which is the optimal, I think, number to get rid of that habit.”
South African health officials say that memories of the country’s disastrous response to HIV/AIDS, where misinformation and denialism cost hundreds of thousands of lives, have spurred its reaction to the coronavirus crisis. South Africa began to gradually ease its lockdown on May 1, but until then the country had implemented one of the strictest lockdowns in the world as 70,000 troops were brought in to enforce it. All outdoor activities were prohibited, including dog walking, which has often been a rare exception elsewhere, even under strict lockdowns. Citizens were allowed to leave their homes only to buy food, and only essential workers were permitted on public transport.
Tyali said the military and police enforcement of the lockdown was not evenly spread throughout the country. “I think they focus more on going to the places where there are a lot of cases and also [places] with a lot of black people,” he said. One of his friends was sent home when trying to buy groceries at 5 in the evening. Videos have circulated on social media of South Africans being forced to do pushups and frog jumps for breaking the lockdown. Whips and rubber bullets have also been used to enforce restrictions on movement.
The lockdown has also brought a crime wave to the country. Dozens of schools have been burgled, trashed, or burned to the ground. There have also been robberies of dozens of liquor stores. However, perhaps the most startling crime trend has been the increase of gender-based violence. In the 16 days after the lockdown began, 148 people were arrested for gender-based violence.
Tyali has been able to protect himself from most of the more violent measures of the lockdown, secluding himself indoors and watching anime. Thus far he hasn’t faced a shortage of food, but he is worried about his parents, and he is unlikely to be the only one. South Africa has been described by the World Bank as the most economically unequal country in the world, a disparity that the pandemic will only drive deeper.
“My mom is a domestic worker, so she has stopped working,” Tyali said. “Because now it’s going to be the end of the month, and they’ve been home for the whole month, I’m not sure if she will get paid. That’s my worry—if they’re going to be able to survive the next month of this lockdown.”
Muslim workers offer Friday prayers as they stand near vermicelli used to make traditional sweets popular during Ramadan, amid a nationwide lockdown as a preventive measure against coronavirus, at a factory in Prayagraj, India on May 1.
India
Normally, at this time of year, Omar Khan and his family would be preparing to go to the mosque for the start of Ramadan. But after the majority of mosques in New Delhi closed their doors as the country went into lockdown, he and his family have been forced to celebrate at home.
While Khan said he and his family have prayed at home before, the atmosphere has changed under the pandemic. “Everything feels very different when you have the head of the mosque take to the mic and say, ‘Look, the times are very difficult.’ When you hear those things on loudspeakers during the night, it’s a completely different, surreal sort of situation and a feeling.”
On March 24, Indians were given four hours’ notice by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the country would be placed on lockdown, confining 1.3 billion people to their homes for 21 days. A curfew was imposed, and most businesses were closed. As a result, a staggering number of Indians lost their jobs, with the last count being 140 million unemployed people. The lockdown measures also saw a massive internal migration as Indians fled cities to return to their villages, leaving some of the world’s most commonly crowded areas desolate.
“India is such a populous country,” Khan said, “and when you see empty roads, empty alleyways, you don’t see people the way they are, it feels very real.”
India’s lockdown restrictions, which began to ease this week, were some of the most strictly enforced in the world. Videos emerged of police beating and whipping people found to be disobeying the rules. When Khan leaves his home, he is often stopped by police, but since he works as a freelance journalist, he is allowed to continue. However, the police presence is everywhere, and Khan said he has seen large groups of police officers patrolling the streets and often wakes up to blaring police sirens in the night.
India’s 200 million Muslims face another unique challenge during the pandemic: violence and harassment. The country’s largest religious minority, Muslims have been scapegoated and accused of spreading the virus, allegations that have been fueled by TV news and some members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. They have also become widespread on social media, where Khan’s friends often ask him about claims they saw on WhatsApp or conspiracy theories they found on YouTube. One of his friends recently asked him if it was true that Muslims wanted to spread the coronavirus. “I said, ‘Come on man, do you seriously think someone would deliberately get themselves infected and then go out and start spreading the virus?” Khan said. “You know the general animosity is incredible. You cannot target one community.”
Police officers check the papers of a man before accessing the quarantine area during the first day of the lockdown in seven communes of Santiago, Chile, on March 27.
Chile
In April, the Chilean government announced that it would move ahead with a controversial plan to introduce immunity passports to people who had recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, enabling them to go back to work. Immunity passports are based on the assumption that people who have had the virus have developed antibodies that will protect them from contracting it a second time, but the World Health Organization has warned there is no evidence of this.
Before the pandemic, Chile was rocked with mass protests against inequality and government corruption that put a referendum on its own constitution into question, but demonstrations have been put on hold as lockdowns came into force. “The sentiment of Chileans is very divided according to social class,” said Pedro Prado, a recent graduate of legal studies from the University of Chile who lives in Santiago. “Despite masks being obligatory, it’s practically a privilege for those who have more resources.” The price of N95 medical masks has nearly doubled since the lockdowns began, rising to $7.
Prado said the government’s efforts to reopen the economy will have serious consequences on vulnerable populations, referring to an interview last month by the general manager of the Santiago Chamber of Commerce, who said, “We don’t have to kill every economic activity to save lives.” It may be older adults who subsist on Chile’s precarious welfare and retirement systems, or those in job markets that provide limited or day-to-day income, who would be neglected, he explained.
“But who are the lives that we should sacrifice to save the economy?” Prado said. “We should be willing to endure this as a society in order to get on with our normal lives.”
Belarus servicemen wearing protective gear disinfect a school in the village of Mikhanavichy outside Minsk on May 3.
Belarus
The president of Belarus has once again distinguished himself for all the wrong reasons. Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994, has described fears of the virus as a “psychosis,” prescribing vodka and a sauna instead of social distancing. Some Belarusians have taken matters into their own hands, implementing a “people’s quarantine,” said Hanna Liubakova, a freelance journalist based in the capital, Minsk. “We are used to the situation where the authorities are saying one thing, that there is no crisis, but we know that something bad is happening and that we have to be prepared,” she said.
Volunteers have worked to crowdfund, source, and deliver protective equipment to front-line hospital workers. Other grassroots efforts have worked to sew and deliver masks, make meals for health care workers, and look after the pets of people hospitalized with the virus, Liubakova said. While faith in civil society is growing, the president is gradually losing his power and authority in the eyes of many Belarusians, she said.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-07--Trump’s Navy Pick Would Have Limited Sway on Ship Goal

Trump ’ s Navy Pick Would Have Limited Sway on Ship Goal President Donald Trump ’ s pick to be the U.S. Navy ’ s civilian leader spent much of his confirmation hearing on Thursday decrying a breakdown in trust with the service ’ s leaders after controversies over the handling of ship collisions , the coronavirus outbreak , and military justice have marred the last three years .
Kenneth Braithwaite , the U.S. ambassador to Norway and a close friend of Defense Secretary Mark Esper , said the coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the 2017 collisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ breakdown in the trust of those leading the service ” among sailors .
But Braithwaite would take the job with limited influence over the commander in chief ’ s top military campaign pledge : growing the U.S. fleet to 355 ships .
Instead , Braithwaite , a retired one-star rear admiral who told lawmakers he saw Trump ’ s ship goal as a “ minimum ” size for a future fleet , will be mostly sidelined—left to handle the aftermath of the Roosevelt ’ s coronavirus outbreak after Esper took control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in February .
“ It ’ s largely taken out of the Navy ’ s hands , ” said Bryan Clark , a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute .
“ It ’ s unclear how big of a vote the Navy is going to get , especially with Braithwaite coming in .
He doesn ’ t have a strong set of opinions he ’ s expressed on Navy architecture and fleet design.
” Braithwaite would be the fourth Navy secretary in six months , after Esper clashed with his predecessors over how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s influence over the service .
The White House intervened in an internal review of a Navy SEAL who posed with the corpse of an Iraqi captive , prompting then-Navy Secretary Richard Spencer ’ s firing .
His acting successor , Thomas Modly , quickly found himself out of a job after firing Roosevelt Capt .
Brett Crozier , who implored the service to allow him to disembark his sailors as the coronavirus spread in the ship ’ s tight quarters .
The 355-ship plan—which is overseen by David Norquist , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 official , and the Pentagon ’ s cost assessment and program evaluation staff—is likely to call for more unmanned ships that would conduct surveillance and reconnaissance to push aside a China threat , sources familiar with the conversations say .
The fleet plan has become an increased focus for Esper since the arrival of Robert O ’ Brien as Trump ’ s national security advisor , sources told Foreign Policy , who publicly advocated for a larger fleet during the Obama administration and restated that pledge at the Reagan National Defense Forum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hot-button issue inside the White House , ” one source familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy .
“ It ’ s an issue that Esper suddenly realized could get away from him in terms of managing his entire portfolio.
” Esper , who has asked the Navy , Air Force , and Marines to come up with more budgetary savings akin to the so-called “ night court ” sessions he ran as Army secretary , was concerned that former acting Navy Secretary Modly ’ s plan to grow the fleet would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the force , crowding out other service priorities .
While the Navy hasn ’ t opposed a push toward smaller vessels , military officials have sought to slow the transition away from larger ships , including carriers , destroyers , and frigates , which the Pentagon has traditionally used to deter bigger powers like Russia and China .
Those differences may have grown in recent months as Esper ’ s team has looked for savings across the Pentagon , sources say .
In a speech at the Surface Navy Association ’ s annual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Operations Chief Adm. Michael Gilday said point-blank that the Navy would have to grow its budget at the expense of other services , a remark that may have tipped Esper ’ s hand .
“ That might have alerted Esper to say , ‘ Whoa , whoa , whoa , guys , everybody play nice in the sandbox , ’ ” the source familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy .
But Esper has taken considerable heat for keeping a tight hold on the Navy from lawmakers on Capitol Hill , who spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grilling the Pentagon chief over Trump ’ s budget , which many felt did not adequately invest in sea power .
“ This is not a feel-good law , ” Rep. Joe Courtney , the chairman of the sea power subpanel of the House Armed Services Committee , told Esper after the Defense Department failed to provide a 30-year shipbuilding plan to Congress .
“ Shipbuilding is a long game.
” Braithwaite , a Trump loyalist who is close to Esper and his West Point classmate David Urban , who has served as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s 2016 and 2020 bids for the White House , is not known inside military circles for his naval thinking .
But he will still have a busy portfolio as he tries to hit ambitious recruiting targets and keep the Navy ready for a potential fight with China despite the coronavirus pandemic .
Experts say the differences between Esper and the Navy in growing the size of the fleet are mostly limited to debates over how quickly to divest of larger ships that might be helpful in preventing China from making more territorial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who was never nominated for the permanent job , first saw his powers curbed when Esper took away the fleet plan that his office thought wasn ’ t radical enough in divesting away from bigger ships .
Even so , choosing whether to go faster or slower in cutting destroyers and frigates could produce distinctly different trajectories over the next several years : toward a Navy that uses forward-based ships firing missile salvos from the sea and drones to snoop on Chinese vessels and blind their communications or traditional deterrence missions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world to show U.S. strength .
“ Some of the moves I see in OSD-related force structure initiatives make our everyday conventional deterrence posture less effective , ” said Bryan McGrath , the managing director of the FerryBridge Group , referring to the Office of the Secretary of Defense .
“ The Navy spends 99.9 percent of its time deterring war , not fighting it .
”

President Donald Trump’s pick to be the U.S. Navy’s civilian leader spent much of his confirmation hearing on Thursday decrying a breakdown in trust with the service’s leaders after controversies over the handling of ship collisions, the coronavirus outbreak, and military justice have marred the last three years.
President Donald Trump’s pick to be the U.S. Navy’s civilian leader spent much of his confirmation hearing on Thursday decrying a breakdown in trust with the service’s leaders after controversies over the handling of ship collisions, the coronavirus outbreak, and military justice have marred the last three years.
Kenneth Braithwaite, the U.S. ambassador to Norway and a close friend of Defense Secretary Mark Esper, said the coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the 2017 collisions of two destroyers in the Asia-Pacific caused a “breakdown in the trust of those leading the service” among sailors.
But Braithwaite would take the job with limited influence over the commander in chief’s top military campaign pledge: growing the U.S. fleet to 355 ships.
Instead, Braithwaite, a retired one-star rear admiral who told lawmakers he saw Trump’s ship goal as a “minimum” size for a future fleet, will be mostly sidelined—left to handle the aftermath of the Roosevelt’s coronavirus outbreak after Esper took control of the Navy’s fleet plan in February.
“It’s largely taken out of the Navy’s hands,” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “It’s unclear how big of a vote the Navy is going to get, especially with Braithwaite coming in. He doesn’t have a strong set of opinions he’s expressed on Navy architecture and fleet design.”
Braithwaite would be the fourth Navy secretary in six months, after Esper clashed with his predecessors over how to hit the 355-ship mark and handle Trump’s influence over the service.
The White House intervened in an internal review of a Navy SEAL who posed with the corpse of an Iraqi captive, prompting then-Navy Secretary Richard Spencer’s firing. His acting successor, Thomas Modly, quickly found himself out of a job after firing Roosevelt Capt. Brett Crozier, who implored the service to allow him to disembark his sailors as the coronavirus spread in the ship’s tight quarters.
The 355-ship plan—which is overseen by David Norquist, the Defense Department’s No. 2 official, and the Pentagon’s cost assessment and program evaluation staff—is likely to call for more unmanned ships that would conduct surveillance and reconnaissance to push aside a China threat, sources familiar with the conversations say.
The fleet plan has become an increased focus for Esper since the arrival of Robert O’Brien as Trump’s national security advisor, sources told Foreign Policy, who publicly advocated for a larger fleet during the Obama administration and restated that pledge at the Reagan National Defense Forum in December.
“It’s a hot-button issue inside the White House,” one source familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy. “It’s an issue that Esper suddenly realized could get away from him in terms of managing his entire portfolio.”
Esper, who has asked the Navy, Air Force, and Marines to come up with more budgetary savings akin to the so-called “night court” sessions he ran as Army secretary, was concerned that former acting Navy Secretary Modly’s plan to grow the fleet would produce runaway costs for shipbuilding and growing the force, crowding out other service priorities.
While the Navy hasn’t opposed a push toward smaller vessels, military officials have sought to slow the transition away from larger ships, including carriers, destroyers, and frigates, which the Pentagon has traditionally used to deter bigger powers like Russia and China.
Those differences may have grown in recent months as Esper’s team has looked for savings across the Pentagon, sources say. In a speech at the Surface Navy Association’s annual conference in January, newly minted Naval Operations Chief Adm. Michael Gilday said point-blank that the Navy would have to grow its budget at the expense of other services, a remark that may have tipped Esper’s hand.
“That might have alerted Esper to say, ‘Whoa, whoa, whoa, guys, everybody play nice in the sandbox,’” the source familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy.
But Esper has taken considerable heat for keeping a tight hold on the Navy from lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who spent much of a budget hearing in February grilling the Pentagon chief over Trump’s budget, which many felt did not adequately invest in sea power.
“This is not a feel-good law,” Rep. Joe Courtney, the chairman of the sea power subpanel of the House Armed Services Committee, told Esper after the Defense Department failed to provide a 30-year shipbuilding plan to Congress. “Shipbuilding is a long game.”
Braithwaite, a Trump loyalist who is close to Esper and his West Point classmate David Urban, who has served as a senior advisor to the president’s 2016 and 2020 bids for the White House, is not known inside military circles for his naval thinking. But he will still have a busy portfolio as he tries to hit ambitious recruiting targets and keep the Navy ready for a potential fight with China despite the coronavirus pandemic.
Experts say the differences between Esper and the Navy in growing the size of the fleet are mostly limited to debates over how quickly to divest of larger ships that might be helpful in preventing China from making more territorial grabs in the Pacific Ocean. Modly, who was never nominated for the permanent job, first saw his powers curbed when Esper took away the fleet plan that his office thought wasn’t radical enough in divesting away from bigger ships.
Even so, choosing whether to go faster or slower in cutting destroyers and frigates could produce distinctly different trajectories over the next several years: toward a Navy that uses forward-based ships firing missile salvos from the sea and drones to snoop on Chinese vessels and blind their communications or traditional deterrence missions that use carriers and destroyers to steam around the world to show U.S. strength.
“Some of the moves I see in OSD-related force structure initiatives make our everyday conventional deterrence posture less effective,” said Bryan McGrath, the managing director of the FerryBridge Group, referring to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. “The Navy spends 99.9 percent of its time deterring war, not fighting it.”


foreignpolicy--2020-05-07--The Pandemic Is Enabling Big Brother

The Pandemic Is Enabling Big Brother

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s weekly South Asia Brief .
Here ’ s what we have today : Why India ’ s coronavirus contact tracing app is coming under criticism , a gas leak in Visakhapatnam kills more than dozen people , a look at the photographs from Kashmir that won a Pulitzer Prize this week .
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
In early April , India ’ s government launched a contact tracing app that processes users ’ travel history , symptoms , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of contracting the coronavirus .
The app is called Aarogya Setu , which means “ a bridge to health ” in Hindi .
“ As more and more people use it , its effectiveness will increase , ” Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted on April 8 .
“ I urge you all to download it.
” A month later , more than 90 million Indians have downloaded the app , uploaded their personal health information , and granted the government constant access to their locations .
The controversy .
It hasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The French ethical hacker Robert Baptiste , who goes by Elliot Anderson on Twitter , said this week that he found security flaws in the app that allowed him to see that several people in the prime minister ’ s office and at the Indian Army headquarters were unwell .
New Delhi was quick to respond , saying it fixed one of the issues raised by Baptiste and thanking him for his work .
A lot could still go wrong .
Several problems remain .
First , given how quickly the app @ @ @ @ @ @ @ publicly revealed—there could be more flaws .
Other hackers may not be driven by ethical concerns .
Second , more than half of India ’ s population doesn ’ t have access to smartphones , lessening the impact of the app and potentially exacerbating the divide between rich and poor .
Third , for those who do have smartphones , there doesn ’ t seem to be a choice : The government has made the app mandatory for public workers and has ordered companies to “ ensure 100 percent coverage ” among employees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ near New Delhi , people caught without the app could be fined $ 13 or face six months in jail , as BuzzFeed reports .
And fourth , the government could misuse data gleaned from the app , a concern that has been raised as India steps up its use of surveillance drones and facial recognition and expands the use of Aadhaar , the world ’ s largest biometric identification program .
As the Indian lawyer Gautam Bhatia has argued in Foreign Affairs , a data protection bill being considered in parliament falls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ India ’ s courts have largely allowed the state to have its way on surveillance requests .
That track record doesn ’ t encourage trust in an invasive health care app , no matter how urgent the need .
A Big Brother world ?
These are desperate times , and tracing apps will play an important role .
But this isn ’ t just about India .
When countries finally emerge from their pandemic lockdowns , their societies “ may also be much less free , ” Faine Greenwood argues in FP , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technology during health crises—such as in West Africa during the 2014 Ebola outbreak—were largely ineffective and led to millions of privacy violations .
Similarly , private sector contact tracing apps such as Alphabet ’ s Verily , which requires a Google account , create new means for companies to access individuals ’ private information .
Even if people have a choice , it ’ s a false one : We are never as desperate as when faced with a new , deadly , and untreatable virus .
Before we get to other stories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the rising number of coronavirus cases and deaths across South Asia .
As we ’ ve projected for several weeks , lockdowns have helped slow the spread of the pandemic , but they haven ’ t stopped it .
With the region ’ s economies gradually reopening , cases will naturally rise .
Deadly gas leak in India .
More than a dozen people were killed and several hundred hospitalized after a massive gas leak from a chemical plant near Visakhapatnam , an Indian port city on the Bay of Bengal .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ took place around 3 a.m. local time on Thursday , while most people were asleep .
Doctors say patients have reported difficulty breathing and a burning sensation in their eyes .
The gas has been identified as styrene , which is used to make fiberglass , rubber , and latex .
Bringing the diaspora back home .
India is beginning flights to bring home more than 400,000 citizens stranded overseas while working or studying .
A majority of the people who have signed up for the government-run flights are in Middle East hubs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United Arab Emirates ; Riyadh , Saudi Arabia ; and Doha , Qatar .
Most will be flying into Kerala in southern India—a state with large numbers of people working abroad that has been lauded for its aggressive response to the pandemic .
But there are fears that the returning citizens could carry the coronavirus .
In Pakistan , which plans to bring back 100,000 citizens living abroad , about 12 percent of those returning have tested positive for the virus .
India ’ s Gulf problem .
The United Arab Emirates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Islamophobia not only in India , but also among Indians in her country .
“ I miss the peaceful India , ” she tweeted on May 4 in one of several rebukes of a rise in hate speech against Muslims .
In one instance , she reminded an Indian expatriate in her country that racist remarks could lead to expulsion .
As Sumit Ganguly and Nicolas Blarel write in one of the most-read articles in FP this week , Qassimi ’ s comments are among the reasons why India ’ s otherwise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ headed for a fraught period .
Afghanistan ’ s medical staff .
Reuters reports that of the 925 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Kabul , 346 are medical staffers—sparking alarm among the medical community in Afghanistan and leading to some clinic closures .
Like many countries , Afghanistan is suffering from a shortage of personal protective equipment in hospitals .
Meanwhile , there are growing concerns about the Taliban taking advantage of the situation and using the crisis to advance their own propaganda .
Ashley Jackson wrote in FP this week that “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to openly acknowledge that the insurgency has an essential role to play and call on it to take concrete , specific actions to halt the virus ’ s spread and facilitate health work.
” Bangladesh press crackdown .
Bangladeshi authorities have used a controversial digital security law to arrest 11 people for posting social media content critical of Dhaka ’ s response to the coronavirus outbreak .
The charges include “ undermining the image ” of the late leader Mujibur Rahman—the father of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—and “ spreading rumors and misinformation on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writer Mushtaq Ahmed , who criticized the government over a shortage of masks and gloves for doctors .
Preliminary data shows that more than 33 million Americans filed unemployment claims in the last seven weeks—a number that is expected to keep rising .
That brings us to our question this week .
There are no official unemployment numbers in India since the pandemic began , but a respected private research agency recently estimated the country ’ s layoffs .
How many Indians lost their jobs in April ?
Scroll down for the answer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masked protester in Srinagar , Indian-administered Kashmir , jumps on top of an armored police vehicle as he throws stones at it in protest .
The image , captured by photographer Dar Yasin in May 2019 , is part of an Associated Press series awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Feature Photography this week .
The two other photographers awarded are Channi Anand and Mukhtar Khan .
Journalists in Kashmir have always had a difficult job .
In 2019 , they encountered sweeping curfews and internet shutdowns , making it harder to report stories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world .
In the case of these award-winning photographs , Yasin , Anand , and Khan would head to Srinagar airport to convince travelers to carry drives containing the photographs to the AP office in New Delhi .
There was no other way to get them out .
In this second image from the award-winning series , also taken by Yasin , a Kashmiri is ordered to open his jacket so he can be frisked .
It was taken on Aug. 8 , 2019 , in Srinagar , just days after New Delhi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ special status and jailed its leading politicians .
Most Kashmiris have lived under a strict curfew since then , with limited or no internet access and harsh curbs on mobile phones , landlines , and TV .
Indian-administered Kashmir has become among the most militarized zones in the world as authorities seek to forestall protests and potential terrorist attacks .
[ For more on Kashmir ’ s eventful last year , read a range of articles in FP by writers such as Michael Kugelman , Anchal Vohra , Idris Bhat , Rahul Pandita @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sumit Ganguly , Kathryn Salam and me , and many others . ]
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy estimates that there were 122 million job losses in April alone , with more added in May .
While 91.3 million of these were small traders and laborers , salaried workers accounted for 17.8 million jobs lost .
According to the private research agency , the country ’ s unemployment rate is now at 27.1 percent—up from 8.7 percent in March .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find older editions of South Asia Brief here .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief. Here’s what we have today: Why India’s coronavirus contact tracing app is coming under criticism, a gas leak in Visakhapatnam kills more than dozen people, a look at the photographs from Kashmir that won a Pulitzer Prize this week.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly South Asia Brief. Here’s what we have today: Why India’s coronavirus contact tracing app is coming under criticism, a gas leak in Visakhapatnam kills more than dozen people, a look at the photographs from Kashmir that won a Pulitzer Prize this week.
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Criticism Grows Over India’s Contact Tracing App
In early April, India’s government launched a contact tracing app that processes users’ travel history, symptoms, and location data to calculate their risk of contracting the coronavirus. The app is called Aarogya Setu, which means “a bridge to health” in Hindi. “As more and more people use it, its effectiveness will increase,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted on April 8. “I urge you all to download it.”
A month later, more than 90 million Indians have downloaded the app, uploaded their personal health information, and granted the government constant access to their locations.
The controversy. It hasn’t taken long for criticism to pour in. The French ethical hacker Robert Baptiste, who goes by Elliot Anderson on Twitter, said this week that he found security flaws in the app that allowed him to see that several people in the prime minister’s office and at the Indian Army headquarters were unwell. New Delhi was quick to respond, saying it fixed one of the issues raised by Baptiste and thanking him for his work.
A lot could still go wrong. Several problems remain. First, given how quickly the app was launched—and how quickly a loophole was publicly revealed—there could be more flaws. Other hackers may not be driven by ethical concerns. Second, more than half of India’s population doesn’t have access to smartphones, lessening the impact of the app and potentially exacerbating the divide between rich and poor.
Third, for those who do have smartphones, there doesn’t seem to be a choice: The government has made the app mandatory for public workers and has ordered companies to “ensure 100 percent coverage” among employees. In the city of Noida, near New Delhi, people caught without the app could be fined $13 or face six months in jail, as BuzzFeed reports. And fourth, the government could misuse data gleaned from the app, a concern that has been raised as India steps up its use of surveillance drones and facial recognition and expands the use of Aadhaar, the world’s largest biometric identification program.
As the Indian lawyer Gautam Bhatia has argued in Foreign Affairs, a data protection bill being considered in parliament falls far short of international standards, and India’s courts have largely allowed the state to have its way on surveillance requests. That track record doesn’t encourage trust in an invasive health care app, no matter how urgent the need.
A Big Brother world? These are desperate times, and tracing apps will play an important role. But this isn’t just about India. When countries finally emerge from their pandemic lockdowns, their societies “may also be much less free,” Faine Greenwood argues in FP, pointing out that other attempts to use technology during health crises—such as in West Africa during the 2014 Ebola outbreak—were largely ineffective and led to millions of privacy violations. Similarly, private sector contact tracing apps such as Alphabet’s Verily, which requires a Google account, create new means for companies to access individuals’ private information. Even if people have a choice, it’s a false one: We are never as desperate as when faced with a new, deadly, and untreatable virus.
Before we get to other stories, here’s our weekly look at the rising number of coronavirus cases and deaths across South Asia. As we’ve projected for several weeks, lockdowns have helped slow the spread of the pandemic, but they haven’t stopped it. With the region’s economies gradually reopening, cases will naturally rise.
What We’re Following
Deadly gas leak in India. More than a dozen people were killed and several hundred hospitalized after a massive gas leak from a chemical plant near Visakhapatnam, an Indian port city on the Bay of Bengal. The leak from the LG Polymers plant took place around 3 a.m. local time on Thursday, while most people were asleep. Doctors say patients have reported difficulty breathing and a burning sensation in their eyes. The gas has been identified as styrene, which is used to make fiberglass, rubber, and latex.
Bringing the diaspora back home. India is beginning flights to bring home more than 400,000 citizens stranded overseas while working or studying. A majority of the people who have signed up for the government-run flights are in Middle East hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Doha, Qatar. Most will be flying into Kerala in southern India—a state with large numbers of people working abroad that has been lauded for its aggressive response to the pandemic. But there are fears that the returning citizens could carry the coronavirus.
In Pakistan, which plans to bring back 100,000 citizens living abroad, about 12 percent of those returning have tested positive for the virus.
India’s Gulf problem. The United Arab Emirates’ Princess Hend al-Qassimi is drawing attention to Islamophobia not only in India, but also among Indians in her country. “I miss the peaceful India,” she tweeted on May 4 in one of several rebukes of a rise in hate speech against Muslims. In one instance, she reminded an Indian expatriate in her country that racist remarks could lead to expulsion. As Sumit Ganguly and Nicolas Blarel write in one of the most-read articles in FP this week, Qassimi’s comments are among the reasons why India’s otherwise stellar relations with Gulf countries may be headed for a fraught period.
Afghanistan’s medical staff. Reuters reports that of the 925 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Kabul, 346 are medical staffers—sparking alarm among the medical community in Afghanistan and leading to some clinic closures. Like many countries, Afghanistan is suffering from a shortage of personal protective equipment in hospitals. Meanwhile, there are growing concerns about the Taliban taking advantage of the situation and using the crisis to advance their own propaganda. Ashley Jackson wrote in FP this week that “aid donors and agencies would do well to openly acknowledge that the insurgency has an essential role to play and call on it to take concrete, specific actions to halt the virus’s spread and facilitate health work.”
Bangladesh press crackdown. Bangladeshi authorities have used a controversial digital security law to arrest 11 people for posting social media content critical of Dhaka’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. The charges include “undermining the image” of the late leader Mujibur Rahman—the father of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—and “spreading rumors and misinformation on Facebook.” Among those arrested was the writer Mushtaq Ahmed, who criticized the government over a shortage of masks and gloves for doctors.
Question of the Week
Preliminary data shows that more than 33 million Americans filed unemployment claims in the last seven weeks—a number that is expected to keep rising. That brings us to our question this week.
There are no official unemployment numbers in India since the pandemic began, but a respected private research agency recently estimated the country’s layoffs. How many Indians lost their jobs in April?
A) 22 million
B) 77 million
C) 122 million
D) 222 million
Scroll down for the answer.
Odds and Ends
A masked Kashmiri protester jumps on an armored vehicle of Indian police as he throws stones at it during a protest in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, on May 31, 2019.
In the picture above, a masked protester in Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir, jumps on top of an armored police vehicle as he throws stones at it in protest. The image, captured by photographer Dar Yasin in May 2019, is part of an Associated Press series awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Feature Photography this week. The two other photographers awarded are Channi Anand and Mukhtar Khan.
Journalists in Kashmir have always had a difficult job. In 2019, they encountered sweeping curfews and internet shutdowns, making it harder to report stories and get their work out to the world. In the case of these award-winning photographs, Yasin, Anand, and Khan would head to Srinagar airport to convince travelers to carry drives containing the photographs to the AP office in New Delhi. There was no other way to get them out.
An Indian paramilitary soldier orders a Kashmiri to open his jacket before frisking him during curfew in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, on Aug. 8, 2019.
In this second image from the award-winning series, also taken by Yasin, a Kashmiri is ordered to open his jacket so he can be frisked. It was taken on Aug. 8, 2019, in Srinagar, just days after New Delhi announced it had revoked Kashmir’s special status and jailed its leading politicians. Most Kashmiris have lived under a strict curfew since then, with limited or no internet access and harsh curbs on mobile phones, landlines, and TV. Indian-administered Kashmir has become among the most militarized zones in the world as authorities seek to forestall protests and potential terrorist attacks.
[For more on Kashmir’s eventful last year, read a range of articles in FP by writers such as Michael Kugelman, Anchal Vohra, Idris Bhat, Rahul Pandita, Muddasir Ali, Dibyesh Anand, Sumit Ganguly, Kathryn Salam and me, and many others.]
And the Answer Is…
C) 122 million.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy estimates that there were 122 million job losses in April alone, with more added in May. While 91.3 million of these were small traders and laborers, salaried workers accounted for 17.8 million jobs lost. According to the private research agency, the country’s unemployment rate is now at 27.1 percent—up from 8.7 percent in March.
That’s it for this week.
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