foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--Aspiring Autocrats Threaten Democracy Across the World

Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly update on emerging global stories .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : Democratic elections around the world have ended in violence and chaos in recent weeks , Islamist militants launch two attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo , and why the protests against stricter abortion laws in Poland are the largest in a generation .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Mondays , please sign up here .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most significant and contentious elections in living memory .
Businesses have boarded up their windows in anticipation of civil unrest , incumbent President Donald Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose and praised supporters who harassed a Joe Biden campaign bus on the road , and on Saturday police pepper-sprayed a crowd of peaceful protesters marching to the polls in North Carolina .
If this were happening in another country , the U.S. State Department might well have issued a statement of concern .
But while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there have been a number of significant presidential and legislative elections around the world in recent weeks that are worth keeping tabs on , as contested results threaten to tip their countries into chaos .
At least 21 people have been killed in Guinea in the wake of presidential elections on Oct. 18 that saw incumbent President Alpha Condé win a controversial third term in office .
Condé said a constitutional referendum in March reset the clock on the two-term limit , but his August announcement that he would run again sparked deadly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Cellou Dalein Diallo , alleged widespread fraud and said he would contest the results .
Condé may have taken inspiration from Russian President Vladimir Putin , who sidestepped his term limit by holding a constitutional referendum over the summer .
And while the United States and France urged Condé to step down at the end of his term , Russia has supported him .
Last year , former Russian Ambassador to Guinea Alexander Bregadze described Condé as “ legendary ” and said : “ Constitutions adapt to reality .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Months later , Bregadze stepped down as ambassador to become Guinea country chief for the Russian aluminum giant Rusal .
Voters went to the polls in Ivory Coast last Saturday in a similarly controversial presidential election , with President Alassane Ouattara seeking a third term .
Like Condé and Putin , he has argued that a 2016 referendum on a new constitution extended his term limits .
Early results show Ouattara on track to win after opposition candidates called for a boycott of the vote .
At least 30 people were killed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ five more died on election day .
The unrest evokes memories of Ivory Coast ’ s 2010 presidential election , which sparked a civil war as military forces loyal to former President Laurent Gbagbo clashed with supporters of Outtara , then the president-elect .
Tanzanians also voted last week .
Once a regional beacon of democracy , Tanzania saw a renewed crackdown on the opposition in the wake of last Wednesday ’ s vote .
President John Magufuli was reelected with around 84 percent of the vote .
Some 300 staffers and activists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or abducted in recent days , the Guardian reports .
While domestic and international observers have raised concerns about widespread irregularities , there is no way to challenge the results in court .
During his first term in office , Magufuli presided over a rollback of civil liberties and human rights , a trend that is set to continue as his Chama Cha Mapinduzi party won an overwhelming majority of seats in the parliament , enough to single-handedly change the constitution .
Meanwhile in Georgia , a political standoff is brewing in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections .
The ruling Georgian Dream party declared victory with 48 percent of the vote , but opposition parties say the elections were rigged .
Observers from the Council of Europe , NATO , and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the election was competitive , but they voiced concerns about allegations of pressure on voters and blurred lines between the state and the ruling party .
Protesters and opposition members took to the streets of the capital , Tbilisi , as the results trickled in .
Georgia is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find a way through the crisis .
But low voter turnout and the fact that opinion polls found that 20 to 60 percent of people were undecided in the days before the vote suggest that the public isn ’ t convinced by either party , which could spell trouble ahead for the young democracy .
Voters in Myanmar go to the polls on Nov. 8 .
Five years ago , the general elections were celebrated as a breakthrough after decades of military rule : Aung San Suu Kyi ’ s National League for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the party has since failed to live up to its name or its leader ’ s Nobel Peace Prize .
The country ’ s election commission has canceled voting in dozens of areas largely inhabited by ethnic minorities , depriving an estimated 1.5 million people of the right to vote .
Over 1 million Rohingyas fled the country in 2017 amid a genocidal campaign by the military in Rakhine state .
Those who remain have been denied citizenship and , by extension , the right to vote or stand for election .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perhaps because they fear that the military poses an even greater threat to democracy in Myanmar , as Andrew Nachemson writes for Foreign Policy .
Attacks in Congo .
More than 20 people were killed in an attack on a church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ’ s restive North Kivu province last Wednesday .
Authorities believe Islamist militants from the Allied Democratic Forces ( ADF ) , an armed group operating in the region since the late 1990s , were responsible for the attack .
Two days later , 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a village in the Buliki area of the province , which local officials attributed to the ADF .
Attacks by the ADF have surged over the past year in response to a Congolese military operation that has driven the group out of bases near Congo ’ s border with Uganda .
Militants have splintered into smaller mobile groups that have retaliated with indiscriminate attacks against civilians .
The United Nations estimates that 1,000 people have been killed by the group since the start of 2019 .
Last month , the group allegedly carried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the city of Beni , freeing 1,300 prisoners including militant fighters .
Protests grow in Poland .
Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of Warsaw to protest a recent court decision that would impose a near-total abortion ban .
The demonstrations are the largest in Poland since the fall of communism in 1989 .
Poland already had the strictest abortion laws in Europe , but an Oct. 22 decision by the country ’ s Constitutional Tribunal would prohibit the procedure even in the event of severe fetal abnormality .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of abortions carried out in Poland , but women ’ s rights groups estimate that tens of thousands of women travel abroad for the procedure each year .
Once the new ban comes into effect , abortion would only be allowed in instances of rape , incest , or risk to the mother ’ s life .
Opinion polls show that a majority of Poles are opposed to tightening abortion laws .
But last year , a group of conservative and far-right members of the parliament asked the country ’ s top court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appointed by the ruling conservative Catholic party , to rule on the issue .
When the Alabama State Senate passed a similar ban last year , I wrote about the devastating consequences of Romania ’ s abortion ban during the communist period .
( In October 2019 , a judge issued a temporary injunction , halting the law shortly before it came into effect . )
Malnutrition spikes in Yemen .
Severe child malnutrition has reached record levels in parts of southern Yemen , and 100,000 children are at risk of dying , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After two years of progress in fighting the worst famine in a generation , acute malnutrition among children has risen by 10 percent in the country ’ s south since January .
“ If the war doesn ’ t end now , we are nearing an irreversible situation and risk losing an entire generation of Yemen ’ s young children , ” said Lisa Grande , the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Yemen .
Did Trump know about the Venezuela plot ?
Remember back in the spring when two former U.S. Special Forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Venezuela—only to be caught , paraded on television , and later sentenced to 20 years in prison ?
The U.S. government denied all knowledge of the plot , which at the time appeared concocted by Jordan Goudreau , a former Green Beret-turned-security contractor .
In a new lawsuit filed on Friday by Goudreau against a political operative aligned with the Venezuelan opposition , he says at least two Trump administration officials knew about and encouraged the plot .
“ Drew Horn originally wanted to set up a meeting between myself and Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but that never happened , ” Goudreau alleged in an interview with reporters from the Miami Herald and McClatchy .
In a separate development , The Associated Press reports that former U.S. Marine Cpl .
Matthew Heath was arrested in Venezuela on Sept. 10 and has been accused of spying for the Trump administration .
Heath was also arrested this year in Colombia after traveling to the country in a fishing boat with two other U.S. military veterans .
His family says he was trying to make his way to Aruba .
Deepening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maduro , who rarely misses an opportunity to point fingers at the United States , has said little about Heath ’ s arrest .
Killing a ( sausage ) king .
The Russian meat factory magnate Vladimir Marugov , known as the “ Sausage King , ” was killed by a crossbow in an outdoor sauna on his country estate in the early hours of Monday morning .
Armed intruders broke into the sauna and demanded cash from Marugov before shooting him with the crossbow .
The assailants were found in a nearby @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is still unclear who or what was behind the attack .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly update on emerging global stories.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: Democratic elections around the world have ended in violence and chaos in recent weeks, Islamist militants launch two attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and why the protests against stricter abortion laws in Poland are the largest in a generation.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Mondays, please sign up here.
The World’s Other Elections
The United States is bracing for one the most significant and contentious elections in living memory. Businesses have boarded up their windows in anticipation of civil unrest, incumbent President Donald Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose and praised supporters who harassed a Joe Biden campaign bus on the road, and on Saturday police pepper-sprayed a crowd of peaceful protesters marching to the polls in North Carolina. If this were happening in another country, the U.S. State Department might well have issued a statement of concern.
But while the U.S. political strife dominates headlines, there have been a number of significant presidential and legislative elections around the world in recent weeks that are worth keeping tabs on, as contested results threaten to tip their countries into chaos.
At least 21 people have been killed in Guinea in the wake of presidential elections on Oct. 18 that saw incumbent President Alpha Condé win a controversial third term in office. Condé said a constitutional referendum in March reset the clock on the two-term limit, but his August announcement that he would run again sparked deadly protests. Condé’s main opponent, Cellou Dalein Diallo, alleged widespread fraud and said he would contest the results.
Condé may have taken inspiration from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who sidestepped his term limit by holding a constitutional referendum over the summer. And while the United States and France urged Condé to step down at the end of his term, Russia has supported him.
Last year, former Russian Ambassador to Guinea Alexander Bregadze described Condé as “legendary” and said: “Constitutions adapt to reality. It’s not realities that adapt to constitutions.” Months later, Bregadze stepped down as ambassador to become Guinea country chief for the Russian aluminum giant Rusal.
Voters went to the polls in Ivory Coast last Saturday in a similarly controversial presidential election, with President Alassane Ouattara seeking a third term. Like Condé and Putin, he has argued that a 2016 referendum on a new constitution extended his term limits. Early results show Ouattara on track to win after opposition candidates called for a boycott of the vote.
At least 30 people were killed in clashes ahead of the vote, and five more died on election day. The unrest evokes memories of Ivory Coast’s 2010 presidential election, which sparked a civil war as military forces loyal to former President Laurent Gbagbo clashed with supporters of Outtara, then the president-elect.
Tanzanians also voted last week. Once a regional beacon of democracy, Tanzania saw a renewed crackdown on the opposition in the wake of last Wednesday’s vote. President John Magufuli was reelected with around 84 percent of the vote. Some 300 staffers and activists from two opposition parties have been detained or abducted in recent days, the Guardian reports. While domestic and international observers have raised concerns about widespread irregularities, there is no way to challenge the results in court.
During his first term in office, Magufuli presided over a rollback of civil liberties and human rights, a trend that is set to continue as his Chama Cha Mapinduzi party won an overwhelming majority of seats in the parliament, enough to single-handedly change the constitution.
Georgian opposition supporters protest against the results of the parliamentary election outside the offices of the Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi on Nov. 1.
Meanwhile in Georgia, a political standoff is brewing in the wake of last Saturday’s legislative elections. The ruling Georgian Dream party declared victory with 48 percent of the vote, but opposition parties say the elections were rigged. Observers from the Council of Europe, NATO, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the election was competitive, but they voiced concerns about allegations of pressure on voters and blurred lines between the state and the ruling party.
Protesters and opposition members took to the streets of the capital, Tbilisi, as the results trickled in. Georgia is no stranger to political strife and will likely find a way through the crisis. But low voter turnout and the fact that opinion polls found that 20 to 60 percent of people were undecided in the days before the vote suggest that the public isn’t convinced by either party, which could spell trouble ahead for the young democracy.
Voters in Myanmar go to the polls on Nov. 8. Five years ago, the general elections were celebrated as a breakthrough after decades of military rule: Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won by a landslide. But the party has since failed to live up to its name or its leader’s Nobel Peace Prize. The country’s election commission has canceled voting in dozens of areas largely inhabited by ethnic minorities, depriving an estimated 1.5 million people of the right to vote.
Over 1 million Rohingyas fled the country in 2017 amid a genocidal campaign by the military in Rakhine state. Those who remain have been denied citizenship and, by extension, the right to vote or stand for election. But Western countries have remained largely silent, perhaps because they fear that the military poses an even greater threat to democracy in Myanmar, as Andrew Nachemson writes for Foreign Policy.
What We’re Following
Attacks in Congo. More than 20 people were killed in an attack on a church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s restive North Kivu province last Wednesday. Authorities believe Islamist militants from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an armed group operating in the region since the late 1990s, were responsible for the attack. Two days later, 17 people were killed in a raid on a village in the Buliki area of the province, which local officials attributed to the ADF.
Attacks by the ADF have surged over the past year in response to a Congolese military operation that has driven the group out of bases near Congo’s border with Uganda. Militants have splintered into smaller mobile groups that have retaliated with indiscriminate attacks against civilians. The United Nations estimates that 1,000 people have been killed by the group since the start of 2019. Last month, the group allegedly carried out an assault on a prison in the city of Beni, freeing 1,300 prisoners including militant fighters.
Demonstrators wave flags as they block a street during a protest against the tightening of Poland's already restrictive abortion law on Nov. 2 in Warsaw.
Protests grow in Poland. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of Warsaw to protest a recent court decision that would impose a near-total abortion ban. The demonstrations are the largest in Poland since the fall of communism in 1989. Poland already had the strictest abortion laws in Europe, but an Oct. 22 decision by the country’s Constitutional Tribunal would prohibit the procedure even in the event of severe fetal abnormality.
Such cases currently account for 98 percent of abortions carried out in Poland, but women’s rights groups estimate that tens of thousands of women travel abroad for the procedure each year. Once the new ban comes into effect, abortion would only be allowed in instances of rape, incest, or risk to the mother’s life.
Opinion polls show that a majority of Poles are opposed to tightening abortion laws. But last year, a group of conservative and far-right members of the parliament asked the country’s top court, where the majority of justices were appointed by the ruling conservative Catholic party, to rule on the issue. When the Alabama State Senate passed a similar ban last year, I wrote about the devastating consequences of Romania’s abortion ban during the communist period. (In October 2019, a judge issued a temporary injunction, halting the law shortly before it came into effect.)
Malnutrition spikes in Yemen. Severe child malnutrition has reached record levels in parts of southern Yemen, and 100,000 children are at risk of dying, according to recent analysis by U.N. agencies. After two years of progress in fighting the worst famine in a generation, acute malnutrition among children has risen by 10 percent in the country’s south since January. “If the war doesn’t end now, we are nearing an irreversible situation and risk losing an entire generation of Yemen’s young children,” said Lisa Grande, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Yemen.
Keep an Eye On
Did Trump know about the Venezuela plot? Remember back in the spring when two former U.S. Special Forces soldiers led a botched attempt to invade Venezuela—only to be caught, paraded on television, and later sentenced to 20 years in prison? The U.S. government denied all knowledge of the plot, which at the time appeared concocted by Jordan Goudreau, a former Green Beret-turned-security contractor.
In a new lawsuit filed on Friday by Goudreau against a political operative aligned with the Venezuelan opposition, he says at least two Trump administration officials knew about and encouraged the plot. “Drew Horn originally wanted to set up a meeting between myself and Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago … a direct face-to-face, but that never happened,” Goudreau alleged in an interview with reporters from the Miami Herald and McClatchy.
In a separate development, The Associated Press reports that former U.S. Marine Cpl. Matthew Heath was arrested in Venezuela on Sept. 10 and has been accused of spying for the Trump administration. Heath was also arrested this year in Colombia after traveling to the country in a fishing boat with two other U.S. military veterans. His family says he was trying to make his way to Aruba.
Deepening the mystery, embattled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who rarely misses an opportunity to point fingers at the United States, has said little about Heath’s arrest.
Odds and Ends
Killing a (sausage) king. The Russian meat factory magnate Vladimir Marugov, known as the “Sausage King,” was killed by a crossbow in an outdoor sauna on his country estate in the early hours of Monday morning. Armed intruders broke into the sauna and demanded cash from Marugov before shooting him with the crossbow. The assailants were found in a nearby village during a police search, but it is still unclear who or what was behind the attack.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--Voters Are Picking Ideology Over Competence on Both Sides of the Atlantic

Voters Are Picking Ideology Over Competence on Both Sides of the Atlantic The Scottish National Party ’ s record in government in Scotland is a litany of failures .
Yet the SNP continues to ride high on the back of nationalist sentiment , and it seems virtually unassailable .
With elections to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood—a powerful body that now handles virtually all Scottish affairs save the military and foreign policy , thanks to devolution from the U.K. government—upcoming early next year , the SNP will vigorously strive to keep all emphasis off its repeated scandals and poor record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ separating Scotland from the United Kingdom .
That ’ s an appealing tactic for many Scots , given the state of the rest of the U.K.—but it ’ s one that , as events elsewhere show , is ultimately counterproductive .
And it ’ s a sign of the focus on ideology , instead of competence , that is wrecking Western politics as a whole .
Until recently , Scotland boasted of a “ zero COVID-19 ” strategy .
Things didn ’ t work out that way , despite the natural advantages of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than England .
The most recent scandal in Scotland is the care homes debacle , in which the SNP directed hospitals in the Scottish National Health Service to move elderly patients from their beds and into nursing homes , supposedly to make room for incoming coronavirus patients .
Some of those moved into nursing homes as a result already had the coronavirus , propagating the virus among the most vulnerable .
Moreover , when patients in nursing homes tested positive , the homes were directed not to move those patients to hospitals .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exams debacle , where the SNP government in Scotland decided to grade pupils for their standardized tests on an algorithm that relied on the history and prestige of the school they attended , rather than on their own hard work .
England had its own version of both these scandals .
But the SNP , despite its power and promises of competence , repeated them in Scotland , too .
Before that , there was the fumbling of the nationalization of a near-defunct ferry company , as well as the gross meanderings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shocking errors of judgement from him and his colleagues .
All of this is just in the last year .
Now another potentially huge scandal is in the oven : the Salmond affair .
It looks like a number of the current SNP leadership , not least First Minister Nicola Sturgeon ’ s husband , SNP CEO Peter Murrell , were unduly involved in the investigation and prosecution of former party leader Alex Salmond for sex offenses .
Earlier this year Salmond was acquitted of all charges .
Since then , his supporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politically motivated conspiracy was afoot .
While that seemed entirely too convenient early on , now , even after the feeble Scottish Parliament investigation , suspicions that something very wrong has been afoot have only increased .
As things stand , even Sturgeon seems under suspicion .
Most other parties in a democracy would be battered by this record of failure , and yet the SNP continues to enjoy popularity margins that defy political gravity , especially in a country with at least a partial proportional representation electoral system .
Politics in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sometimes justifiably , lampooned for the lack of actual differences between parties , not only in Britain but also across most of the West .
The ideologies were barely noticeable varieties on the same shade of gray .
The principal criterion for political success was “ competence.
” Sure enough , all too often that perception of competence was a product of spin and of the choices made by the influential proprietors of media outlets .
That said , however , rank and obvious incompetence was usually punished swiftly and severely .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were gone .
If their party leadership stood by them , the whole party would be punished instead .
That could produce unfair verdicts—and the dominance of a narrow and ultimately insufficient view of the world .
But nowadays , the public seems to have overcorrected to the point where considerations of competence seem to play virtually no part in the democratic conversation any longer .
If a majority of the people of Scotland now seem to favor at least a new referendum on independence , and the SNP seems like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then they will continue to support the SNP .
That impunity is dangerous—especially if it carries over into the future of an independent Scotland .
The record of liberation parties in government is mediocre , especially if change never becomes a possibility in the early years .
The ultimate consequences of putting party loyalty in the name of just one defining issue are on display in the United States .
Despite President Donald Trump ’ s atrocious record of inhumanity , larceny , and killer incompetence , over 40 percent of the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideology and identity .
That ’ s a stark contrast with former President George W. Bush , whose popularity numbers plummeted well below Trump ’ s at the end of his time in office—not because he was worse , but because the public was still able to judge on competence , not identity .
Nicola Sturgeon is not Donald Trump .
But in her long time in office , she has committed plenty of errors of judgement .
Her biggest , however , must be the way in which she stands by some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all in the name of protecting the SNP brand .
The SNP has continuously put party before the country and citizens it serves .
In the olden days , the party overall would have been punished for this , and the party brand would have suffered .
But not today .
Today , Sturgeon can brush off every one of these scandals almost on autopilot : We recognize that errors have been made .
We will investigate .
We will get back to you with our findings at some point .
They never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up .
Nor do the voters ever punish them at the ballot box .
If its electorate does not hold the SNP accountable for any of its mismanagement in all the other aspects of governance , the party will not be losing any sleep over anything but independence—especially when a split seems so close at hand .
None of this is necessary .
There are ways to demand basic competence in all areas of governance from politicians in Scotland , even from those voters agree with ideologically on crucial issues .
A chastened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inside or outside the United Kingdom .
But for that to happen , it needs to be admonished at the ballot box , not to throw around the same old excuses .

The Scottish National Party’s record in government in Scotland is a litany of failures. Yet the SNP continues to ride high on the back of nationalist sentiment, and it seems virtually unassailable.
The Scottish National Party’s record in government in Scotland is a litany of failures. Yet the SNP continues to ride high on the back of nationalist sentiment, and it seems virtually unassailable.
With elections to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood—a powerful body that now handles virtually all Scottish affairs save the military and foreign policy, thanks to devolution from the U.K. government—upcoming early next year, the SNP will vigorously strive to keep all emphasis off its repeated scandals and poor record in government, and focus exclusively on separating Scotland from the United Kingdom. That’s an appealing tactic for many Scots, given the state of the rest of the U.K.—but it’s one that, as events elsewhere show, is ultimately counterproductive. And it’s a sign of the focus on ideology, instead of competence, that is wrecking Western politics as a whole.
Until recently, Scotland boasted of a “zero COVID-19” strategy. Things didn’t work out that way, despite the natural advantages of a far less dense and centralized population than England. The most recent scandal in Scotland is the care homes debacle, in which the SNP directed hospitals in the Scottish National Health Service to move elderly patients from their beds and into nursing homes, supposedly to make room for incoming coronavirus patients. Some of those moved into nursing homes as a result already had the coronavirus, propagating the virus among the most vulnerable. Moreover, when patients in nursing homes tested positive, the homes were directed not to move those patients to hospitals.
Prior to that scandal, there was the exams debacle, where the SNP government in Scotland decided to grade pupils for their standardized tests on an algorithm that relied on the history and prestige of the school they attended, rather than on their own hard work. England had its own version of both these scandals. But the SNP, despite its power and promises of competence, repeated them in Scotland, too.
Before that, there was the fumbling of the nationalization of a near-defunct ferry company, as well as the gross meanderings of cabinet member Derek Mackay and the shocking errors of judgement from him and his colleagues. All of this is just in the last year.
Now another potentially huge scandal is in the oven: the Salmond affair. It looks like a number of the current SNP leadership, not least First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s husband, SNP CEO Peter Murrell, were unduly involved in the investigation and prosecution of former party leader Alex Salmond for sex offenses. Earlier this year Salmond was acquitted of all charges. Since then, his supporters have consistently claimed that some kind of politically motivated conspiracy was afoot. While that seemed entirely too convenient early on, now, even after the feeble Scottish Parliament investigation, suspicions that something very wrong has been afoot have only increased. As things stand, even Sturgeon seems under suspicion.
Most other parties in a democracy would be battered by this record of failure, and yet the SNP continues to enjoy popularity margins that defy political gravity, especially in a country with at least a partial proportional representation electoral system.
Politics in the 1990s and 2000s was widely, and sometimes justifiably, lampooned for the lack of actual differences between parties, not only in Britain but also across most of the West. The ideologies were barely noticeable varieties on the same shade of gray. The principal criterion for political success was “competence.”
Sure enough, all too often that perception of competence was a product of spin and of the choices made by the influential proprietors of media outlets. That said, however, rank and obvious incompetence was usually punished swiftly and severely. If a minister did something particularly stupid, they were gone. If their party leadership stood by them, the whole party would be punished instead.
That could produce unfair verdicts—and the dominance of a narrow and ultimately insufficient view of the world. But nowadays, the public seems to have overcorrected to the point where considerations of competence seem to play virtually no part in the democratic conversation any longer.
If a majority of the people of Scotland now seem to favor at least a new referendum on independence, and the SNP seems like the most likely way to get there, then they will continue to support the SNP. That impunity is dangerous—especially if it carries over into the future of an independent Scotland. The record of liberation parties in government is mediocre, especially if change never becomes a possibility in the early years.
The ultimate consequences of putting party loyalty in the name of just one defining issue are on display in the United States. Despite President Donald Trump’s atrocious record of inhumanity, larceny, and killer incompetence, over 40 percent of the U.S. public still back him for reasons of ideology and identity. That’s a stark contrast with former President George W. Bush, whose popularity numbers plummeted well below Trump’s at the end of his time in office—not because he was worse, but because the public was still able to judge on competence, not identity.
Nicola Sturgeon is not Donald Trump. But in her long time in office, she has committed plenty of errors of judgement. Her biggest, however, must be the way in which she stands by some of her most dangerously incompetent ministers—and apparently all in the name of protecting the SNP brand. The SNP has continuously put party before the country and citizens it serves.
In the olden days, the party overall would have been punished for this, and the party brand would have suffered. But not today. Today, Sturgeon can brush off every one of these scandals almost on autopilot: We recognize that errors have been made. We will investigate. We will get back to you with our findings at some point. They never do, and the electorate never follows up. Nor do the voters ever punish them at the ballot box.
If its electorate does not hold the SNP accountable for any of its mismanagement in all the other aspects of governance, the party will not be losing any sleep over anything but independence—especially when a split seems so close at hand.
None of this is necessary. There are ways to demand basic competence in all areas of governance from politicians in Scotland, even from those voters agree with ideologically on crucial issues. A chastened SNP could deliver a better country, inside or outside the United Kingdom. But for that to happen, it needs to be admonished at the ballot box, not to throw around the same old excuses.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--In Latin America, Democracy Itself Is at Stake

In Latin America , Democracy Itself Is at Stake This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
The Trump administration ’ s Latin America policy brought a welcome and necessary focus on parts of the region ’ s authoritarian club , particularly Cuba , Nicaragua , and Venezuela .
As part of its so-called maximum pressure campaign , in the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Office of Foreign Assets Control has erected an immense architecture of individual and sectoral sanctions on these regimes and their corrupt ruling classes ; the Justice Department has issued indictments of political leaders ; and the State Department has rallied allies and provided a needed jolt of energy to fractured opposition movements .
An impressive maritime dragnet has further curtailed the illicit activities of these regimes .
However , while the United States focused on authoritarian consolidation in the hemisphere , attention on broader governance challenges has suffered—all while the region ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Both left and right populism have returned in Latin America ’ s largest countries—Mexico and Brazil—and the region ’ s voters have embraced power-grabbing strongman candidates with disdain for the press , democratic institutions , legislative oversight , and checks and balances .
In the Northern Triangle of Central America , where weak and corrupt governments are the norm , political leaders have steered El Salvador , Guatemala , and Honduras decisively toward autocracy .
These trends all augur ill for the quality of governance in much of Latin America .
Whoever wins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to renew the United States ’ focus on anti-corruption initiatives , institutional reform , and consolidating democratic commitments first made in the Inter-American Democratic Charter .
In order to aspire to the charter ’ s high-minded aspirations—it declared in Article 1 that “ the peoples of the Americas have a right to democracy and their governments have an obligation to promote and defend it ” —the United States will need a less transactional , more committed approach to bring wayward countries back in line .
Indeed , although the charter may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ principles are most obviously lacking—Cuba , Nicaragua , and Venezuela—the U.S. focus should expand to highlight the erosion of democracy regionwide .
To be sure , the transactional approach had its upsides ; given the United States ’ leverage over smaller countries , it was often able to win out on single-issue matters .
Witness the Trump administration ’ s prodding of Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries to establish so-called safe third country agreements in order to stem the flow of migrants to the United States .
But that didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often encouraged a highly circumscribed view of the region .
With a range of important benchmarks effectively reduced to monthly migration figures and progress on squeezing the “ Troika of Tyranny , ” U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America has suffered from a paucity of political vision .
For a variety of reasons , it is in the United States ’ national interest to see an integrated , prosperous , and deeply democratic Latin America .
Foremost among them is that the region ’ s challenges tend to spill over into the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clean up the systemic corruption and the institutional rot that have festered unchecked for too long .
In turn , at stake in this election for much of Latin America is nothing short of the quality of democratic governance in the region .
The Trump administration deserves credit for confronting the brutal dictatorships in Caracas , Havana , and Managua , as well as the great powers—such as China , Iran , and Russia—that provide them a critical lifeline .
However , if in the next four years Washington can not find a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and reverse the deteriorating quality of governance in the region writ large , China , Iran , and Russia may find the door wide open to their influence anyway .

The Trump administration’s Latin America policy brought a welcome and necessary focus on parts of the region’s authoritarian club, particularly Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. As part of its so-called maximum pressure campaign, in the last few years, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has erected an immense architecture of individual and sectoral sanctions on these regimes and their corrupt ruling classes; the Justice Department has issued indictments of political leaders; and the State Department has rallied allies and provided a needed jolt of energy to fractured opposition movements. An impressive maritime dragnet has further curtailed the illicit activities of these regimes. However, while the United States focused on authoritarian consolidation in the hemisphere, attention on broader governance challenges has suffered—all while the region’s quality of governance has plummeted.
The Trump administration’s Latin America policy brought a welcome and necessary focus on parts of the region’s authoritarian club, particularly Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. As part of its so-called maximum pressure campaign, in the last few years, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has erected an immense architecture of individual and sectoral sanctions on these regimes and their corrupt ruling classes; the Justice Department has issued indictments of political leaders; and the State Department has rallied allies and provided a needed jolt of energy to fractured opposition movements. An impressive maritime dragnet has further curtailed the illicit activities of these regimes. However, while the United States focused on authoritarian consolidation in the hemisphere, attention on broader governance challenges has suffered—all while the region’s quality of governance has plummeted.
Both left and right populism have returned in Latin America’s largest countries—Mexico and Brazil—and the region’s voters have embraced power-grabbing strongman candidates with disdain for the press, democratic institutions, legislative oversight, and checks and balances. In the Northern Triangle of Central America, where weak and corrupt governments are the norm, political leaders have steered El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras decisively toward autocracy. These trends all augur ill for the quality of governance in much of Latin America.
Whoever wins the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election will need to renew the United States’ focus on anti-corruption initiatives, institutional reform, and consolidating democratic commitments first made in the Inter-American Democratic Charter. In order to aspire to the charter’s high-minded aspirations—it declared in Article 1 that “the peoples of the Americas have a right to democracy and their governments have an obligation to promote and defend it”—the United States will need a less transactional, more committed approach to bring wayward countries back in line. Indeed, although the charter may be most relevant in the cases where its principles are most obviously lacking—Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—the U.S. focus should expand to highlight the erosion of democracy regionwide.
To be sure, the transactional approach had its upsides; given the United States’ leverage over smaller countries, it was often able to win out on single-issue matters. Witness the Trump administration’s prodding of Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries to establish so-called safe third country agreements in order to stem the flow of migrants to the United States. But that didn’t compensate for the fact that the approach often encouraged a highly circumscribed view of the region. With a range of important benchmarks effectively reduced to monthly migration figures and progress on squeezing the “Troika of Tyranny,” U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America has suffered from a paucity of political vision.
For a variety of reasons, it is in the United States’ national interest to see an integrated, prosperous, and deeply democratic Latin America. Foremost among them is that the region’s challenges tend to spill over into the United States. The region desperately needs to clean up the systemic corruption and the institutional rot that have festered unchecked for too long.
In turn, at stake in this election for much of Latin America is nothing short of the quality of democratic governance in the region. The Trump administration deserves credit for confronting the brutal dictatorships in Caracas, Havana, and Managua, as well as the great powers—such as China, Iran, and Russia—that provide them a critical lifeline. However, if in the next four years Washington cannot find a way to widen the aperture of engagement and reverse the deteriorating quality of governance in the region writ large, China, Iran, and Russia may find the door wide open to their influence anyway.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--Forget FiveThirtyEight—Here’s What Israeli Oracles Are Saying About Trump vs. Biden

Forget FiveThirtyEight—Here ’ s What Israeli Oracles Are Saying About Trump vs. Biden This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
TEL AVIV , Israel—In most countries , predicting election outcomes is the job of pollsters .
In Israel , a newspaper closely aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to consult a different cohort on the question of Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and palm readers .
Their unanimous projection was not exactly a surprise given Netanyahu ’ s close ties to Trump : The U.S. president will win a second term , according to the mystics , though only after a prolonged fight .
“ Trump will get reelected , but it won ’ t be via knockout but on points , ” one of them divined in Israel Hayom , the country ’ s highest-circulation daily .
The newspaper is owned by Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson and serves largely as a mouthpiece for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t respect the outcome , and Joe Biden will steal the presidency , ” leading to a crisis in the United States , the astrologer added .
The election is dominating headlines in all the Israeli media , alongside news of the gradual easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions .
In a country often consumed by its own turbulent politics , the American vote has eclipsed just about everything else .
For observers of the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu over the past four years , the fixation shouldn ’ t come as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given Netanyahu huge political gifts at critical moments , helped Israel forge ties with Arab countries , and crushed Palestinian hopes for viable statehood .
Some 63 percent of Israelis prefer a Trump victory , seeing it as better serving Israeli interests , according to a poll released on Monday by the Israel Democracy Institute ; only 17 percent said the same of a Biden win .
The coverage in Israel has become so granular that Amit Segal , a reporter for Channel 12 news , scolded his colleagues on Twitter for wasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling station is more accurate in Pennsylvania.
” “ Who cares what you think ?
” he said .
“ You ’ re in Israel.
” The soothsayers of Israel Hayom predicted it would take days or weeks for the election results to become clear in the United States—echoing the projections of more temporal forecasters .
They also offered predictions about politics in Israel—where voters might be called on to cast their ballots once again in the coming months .
“ Whether or not there will be elections in Israel in the near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister ] a and the [ U.S.-Israel ] alliance will continue , ” one of them predicted .
[ For more of FP ’ s coverage on the 2020 U.S. election , check out Postcards From the Wedge , our series on how niche foreign-policy issues are playing out in key battleground races , The World ’ s Election , our collection of articles on how other countries are watching the Nov. 3 vote , and What We ’ re Missing , a set of daily takes from leading global thinkers on foreign-policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign . ]

TEL AVIV, Israel—In most countries, predicting election outcomes is the job of pollsters. In Israel, a newspaper closely aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to consult a different cohort on the question of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden: astrologists, numerologists, and palm readers.
TEL AVIV, Israel—In most countries, predicting election outcomes is the job of pollsters. In Israel, a newspaper closely aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to consult a different cohort on the question of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden: astrologists, numerologists, and palm readers.
Their unanimous projection was not exactly a surprise given Netanyahu’s close ties to Trump: The U.S. president will win a second term, according to the mystics, though only after a prolonged fight.
“Trump will get reelected, but it won’t be via knockout but on points,” one of them divined in Israel Hayom, the country’s highest-circulation daily. The newspaper is owned by Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson and serves largely as a mouthpiece for Netanyahu.
“The Democrats won’t respect the outcome, and Joe Biden will steal the presidency,” leading to a crisis in the United States, the astrologer added.
The election is dominating headlines in all the Israeli media, alongside news of the gradual easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. In a country often consumed by its own turbulent politics, the American vote has eclipsed just about everything else.
For observers of the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu over the past four years, the fixation shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. The U.S. president has given Netanyahu huge political gifts at critical moments, helped Israel forge ties with Arab countries, and crushed Palestinian hopes for viable statehood.
Some 63 percent of Israelis prefer a Trump victory, seeing it as better serving Israeli interests, according to a poll released on Monday by the Israel Democracy Institute; only 17 percent said the same of a Biden win.
The coverage in Israel has become so granular that Amit Segal, a reporter for Channel 12 news, scolded his colleagues on Twitter for wasting their time on issues like “which polling station is more accurate in Pennsylvania.”
“Who cares what you think?” he said. “You’re in Israel.”
The soothsayers of Israel Hayom predicted it would take days or weeks for the election results to become clear in the United States—echoing the projections of more temporal forecasters. They also offered predictions about politics in Israel—where voters might be called on to cast their ballots once again in the coming months.
“Whether or not there will be elections in Israel in the near future, Netanyahu will remain [prime minister]a and the [U.S.-Israel] alliance will continue,” one of them predicted.
[For more of FP’s coverage on the 2020 U.S. election, check out Postcards From the Wedge, our series on how niche foreign-policy issues are playing out in key battleground races, The World’s Election, our collection of articles on how other countries are watching the Nov. 3 vote, and What We’re Missing, a set of daily takes from leading global thinkers on foreign-policy issues not getting enough attention during the campaign.]


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--Fear Gives Way to Pity As Canadians Await U.S. Election Results

Fear Gives Way to Pity As Canadians Await U.S. Election Results This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
TORONTO—U.S .
President Donald Trump once inspired angst among Canadians .
Modern Canada grew rich with free trade—and there was a real fear following Trump ’ s 2016 election victory that the United States might renounce the North American Free Trade Agreement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meltdown north of the border .
But as Canadians wait for Tuesday ’ s election results , all that seems like ancient history .
NAFTA was indeed renegotiated in 2018 , but the fallout was hardly cataclysmic—a small blip compared with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic .
Demagoguery against foreign trade practices was part of Trump ’ s campaign rhetoric once again , but Canada got scant mention .
It ’ s hard to remember that , just a few years ago , Trump went on a Twitter rant about—of all things—Canadian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a quarter of Canadians have confidence in Trump , a sharp drop from the 80 percent or more who typically said the same of Obama .
That number hasn ’ t moved much since the early period of Trump ’ s presidency , when NAFTA hung in the balance .
To the extent Canadians are deeply invested in the outcome of Tuesday ’ s election—and I assure you they are—this concern is coded in primarily moral terms .
Few still worry that Canada is under actual threat if Trump is reelected .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been a defining quality of the Canadian intellectual class .
But during the Trump era , that hostility has gone mainstream—and the way it ’ s expressed has changed .
Before the age of social media , Canadians looked to their political leaders to peacock their independence and moral superiority .
Liberal former Prime Ministers Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin , in particular , made a great show of opposing U.S. unilateralism , surrounding themselves with sharp-tongued cultural nationalists who hectored former U.S. President George W. Bush endlessly .
This approach is gone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland , his heir apparent , generally have been professional and statesmanlike in their dealings with Trump ( right down to Trudeau ’ s statements during the U.S. election campaign ) , having sensibly concluded that there ’ s no point in antagonizing a vain U.S. president with 87 million Twitter followers and a penchant for spite .
In 2020 , moreover , Canadians simply no longer depend on their public officials to criticize the United States and its leaders .
They can do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to how Canadians actually feel about the United States , the dominant sense is no longer fear .
It ’ s something closer to pity , as there is a belief that Americans might be headed toward some kind of sociopolitical meltdown no matter who wins the election .
Several snowbirds I know are selling their Florida condos—not because of COVID-19 but because they see the United States as a potentially dangerous and unstable place .
Yet , paradoxically , even as Canadians become geographically estranged from the United States , they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ internal politics—thanks to a borderless English-speaking social media universe that allows everyone to jump casually into everyone else ’ s feeds .
This is a world in which a Globe and Mail Trump takedown can go viral as easily as a Ben Shapiro burn on Trudeau .
Indeed , one of the reasons why a growing number of Canadians now question whether they still need the CBC—the Canadian public media network—is that much of its news content consists of rehashing U.S. political commentary .
Canadian nationalists have long warned of the siren song @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have predicted that its most irresistible earworm would be crooned by none other than Trump ?

TORONTO—U.S. President Donald Trump once inspired angst among Canadians. Modern Canada grew rich with free trade—and there was a real fear following Trump’s 2016 election victory that the United States might renounce the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and spark an economic meltdown north of the border.
TORONTO—U.S. President Donald Trump once inspired angst among Canadians. Modern Canada grew rich with free trade—and there was a real fear following Trump’s 2016 election victory that the United States might renounce the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and spark an economic meltdown north of the border.
But as Canadians wait for Tuesday’s election results, all that seems like ancient history. NAFTA was indeed renegotiated in 2018, but the fallout was hardly cataclysmic—a small blip compared with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Demagoguery against foreign trade practices was part of Trump’s campaign rhetoric once again, but Canada got scant mention. It’s hard to remember that, just a few years ago, Trump went on a Twitter rant about—of all things—Canadian milk.
Surveys suggest that only about a quarter of Canadians have confidence in Trump, a sharp drop from the 80 percent or more who typically said the same of Obama. That number hasn’t moved much since the early period of Trump’s presidency, when NAFTA hung in the balance. To the extent Canadians are deeply invested in the outcome of Tuesday’s election—and I assure you they are—this concern is coded in primarily moral terms. Few still worry that Canada is under actual threat if Trump is reelected.
A reflexive hostility to U.S. power has long been a defining quality of the Canadian intellectual class. But during the Trump era, that hostility has gone mainstream—and the way it’s expressed has changed. Before the age of social media, Canadians looked to their political leaders to peacock their independence and moral superiority. Liberal former Prime Ministers Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, in particular, made a great show of opposing U.S. unilateralism, surrounding themselves with sharp-tongued cultural nationalists who hectored former U.S. President George W. Bush endlessly.
This approach is gone, both in style and substance. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, his heir apparent, generally have been professional and statesmanlike in their dealings with Trump (right down to Trudeau’s statements during the U.S. election campaign), having sensibly concluded that there’s no point in antagonizing a vain U.S. president with 87 million Twitter followers and a penchant for spite. In 2020, moreover, Canadians simply no longer depend on their public officials to criticize the United States and its leaders. They can do it themselves on social media.
As to how Canadians actually feel about the United States, the dominant sense is no longer fear. It’s something closer to pity, as there is a belief that Americans might be headed toward some kind of sociopolitical meltdown no matter who wins the election. Several snowbirds I know are selling their Florida condos—not because of COVID-19 but because they see the United States as a potentially dangerous and unstable place.
Yet, paradoxically, even as Canadians become geographically estranged from the United States, they have never had a closer connection to its internal politics—thanks to a borderless English-speaking social media universe that allows everyone to jump casually into everyone else’s feeds. This is a world in which a Globe and Mail Trump takedown can go viral as easily as a Ben Shapiro burn on Trudeau. Indeed, one of the reasons why a growing number of Canadians now question whether they still need the CBC—the Canadian public media network—is that much of its news content consists of rehashing U.S. political commentary. Canadian nationalists have long warned of the siren song of U.S. cultural hegemony. Who could have predicted that its most irresistible earworm would be crooned by none other than Trump?


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--The Middle East, Like Everyone Else, Has a Lot Riding on the U.S. Election

The Middle East , Like Everyone Else , Has a Lot Riding on the U.S. Election This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Across the Middle East , there is no shortage of speculation about what a change inside the White House could mean .
After a decade of protest and turmoil across the region in the wake of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and U.S. allies ) and plunged several countries into war and crisis—the Middle East has spent the last four years coming to grips with U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s sharp break with his predecessor .
The biggest change has come on Iran , where Trump pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and ramped up a so-called maximum pressure campaign on Tehran in a so-far-unsuccessful bid to force concessions from the Iranian regime .
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has said he would attempt to revive the pact–provided Iran were to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( After Trump pulled the United States out of the deal , Iran broached many of its nuclear commitments , including by ramping up production of enriched uranium . )
But even if Biden wins , there would be big questions about the fate of any renewed Iran deal : Tehran has learned not to trust the durability of any commitment made by one U.S. administration , and even European allies agree that any revived accord with Iran should be broadened to include curbs on Iran ’ s other nefarious activities—which might not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict , Biden has also staked out a different position from Trump ’ s , advocating for a return to the two-state solution outlined under the 1993 Oslo Accords .
Biden has opposed Israel ’ s recent unilateral moves , including a seemingly stalled plan to annex Palestinian territory in the West Bank , and said he would restore the funding and diplomatic relations with Palestinians cut by Trump .
But after Trump ’ s one-sided intervention in the conflict , it ’ s unclear if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the neutral broker for peace it long claimed to be .
Likewise , when it comes to Saudi Arabia , a change in administrations could bring a big shift .
Trump , and particularly his son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner , has cozied up to the Saudi kingdom and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , despite ongoing atrocities in the Saudi-led war in Yemen and the brutal murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the hands of Saudi agents in Istanbul two years ago .
Biden has pledged to reassess the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rights abusers to account .
But supporting , or at least tolerating , abuses from strongmen who had close ties with Washington has been a keystone of American Middle East policy for decades under both Democratic and Republication administrations .
That ’ s one reason the Syrian opposition will be watching the election closely .
Trump appeared to be tougher on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad than former President Barack Obama—launching more strikes and sanctions—but that had little impact on the regime ’ s legitimacy or its ability to resist what ’ s left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s reputation as anti-Muslim , his tough stance on Iran , one of Assad ’ s key backers , won him some fans in the Arab world , and there is concern that a warming of U.S.-Iran relations under Biden could further strengthen Assad .
At the same time , Trump has allowed Turkey , which backs rebel forces , a much freer hand in Syria .
That came at the despair of Kurdish forces in northern Syria , who had partnered with the United States to battle the Islamic State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bulk of U.S. troops from Syria , abandoning Kurdish fighters and sending a message to local allies that the United States may not be a reliable backer .

Across the Middle East, there is no shortage of speculation about what a change inside the White House could mean.
Across the Middle East, there is no shortage of speculation about what a change inside the White House could mean.
After a decade of protest and turmoil across the region in the wake of the Arab Spring—uprisings that removed some long-standing dictators (and U.S. allies) and plunged several countries into war and crisis—the Middle East has spent the last four years coming to grips with U.S. President Donald Trump’s sharp break with his predecessor.
The biggest change has come on Iran, where Trump pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and ramped up a so-called maximum pressure campaign on Tehran in a so-far-unsuccessful bid to force concessions from the Iranian regime. Democratic challenger Joe Biden has said he would attempt to revive the pact–provided Iran were to return to its commitments as well. (After Trump pulled the United States out of the deal, Iran broached many of its nuclear commitments, including by ramping up production of enriched uranium.) But even if Biden wins, there would be big questions about the fate of any renewed Iran deal: Tehran has learned not to trust the durability of any commitment made by one U.S. administration, and even European allies agree that any revived accord with Iran should be broadened to include curbs on Iran’s other nefarious activities—which might not fly with the country’s leadership.
When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden has also staked out a different position from Trump’s, advocating for a return to the two-state solution outlined under the 1993 Oslo Accords. Biden has opposed Israel’s recent unilateral moves, including a seemingly stalled plan to annex Palestinian territory in the West Bank, and said he would restore the funding and diplomatic relations with Palestinians cut by Trump. But after Trump’s one-sided intervention in the conflict, it’s unclear if the United States could again position itself as the neutral broker for peace it long claimed to be.
Likewise, when it comes to Saudi Arabia, a change in administrations could bring a big shift. Trump, and particularly his son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner, has cozied up to the Saudi kingdom and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite ongoing atrocities in the Saudi-led war in Yemen and the brutal murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the hands of Saudi agents in Istanbul two years ago. Biden has pledged to reassess the relationship with Riyadh and hold global human rights abusers to account.
But supporting, or at least tolerating, abuses from strongmen who had close ties with Washington has been a keystone of American Middle East policy for decades under both Democratic and Republication administrations. That’s one reason the Syrian opposition will be watching the election closely.
Trump appeared to be tougher on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad than former President Barack Obama—launching more strikes and sanctions—but that had little impact on the regime’s legitimacy or its ability to resist what’s left of the opposition. However, despite Trump’s reputation as anti-Muslim, his tough stance on Iran, one of Assad’s key backers, won him some fans in the Arab world, and there is concern that a warming of U.S.-Iran relations under Biden could further strengthen Assad. At the same time, Trump has allowed Turkey, which backs rebel forces, a much freer hand in Syria.
That came at the despair of Kurdish forces in northern Syria, who had partnered with the United States to battle the Islamic State. Trump rushed to pull out the bulk of U.S. troops from Syria, abandoning Kurdish fighters and sending a message to local allies that the United States may not be a reliable backer.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--Whatever Happens on Tuesday, Afghans Just Want an End to Their Own National Nightmare

Whatever Happens on Tuesday , Afghans Just Want an End to Their Own National Nightmare This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
KABUL—Since the United States invaded Afghanistan almost 20 years ago , the Afghan people have experienced four U.S. elections and three different U.S. presidents .
Each vote brought feelings of uncertainty , hope , and trepidation .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Joe Biden saying they finally want to withdraw U.S. forces from the country , this could end up being the most consequential vote for Afghans since 2001 .
There ’ s the question , of course , of whether and how either candidate will actually carry out this withdrawal .
Trump ’ s tweets about pulling out troops by December were quickly corrected by military officials ; Afghan security officials for their part doubt the United States can dismantle a decades-long presence in a couple of months in the middle of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Taliban .
On Monday , terrorists attacked Kabul University and killed at least 19 people , wounding dozens more .
Afghan government officials blamed the Taliban ; the militant group denied it was behind the attack , though both the Taliban and the Islamic State have targeted schools in the past .
Since signing a deal with the United States in February , and promising to curtail attacks against U.S. forces and cut ties with al Qaeda , the Taliban have been emboldened in Afghanistan .
The peace agreement has done nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security forces , with violence reaching record levels in recent months .
Over the last year , the Trump White House has offered the Taliban a lot while proffering Kabul very little , continually criticizing the administration of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and cutting U.S. aid .
But it ’ s not clear where Biden—who as vice president long favored an enduring U.S. counterterrorism mission in the country—really stands on the Taliban or Afghanistan ’ s future .
And Afghans worry that he ’ ll have enough nation-building to do at home after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ball .
That could leave an early Biden administration distracted and looking anywhere but at Afghanistan .
The upshot , many in Kabul fear , is that Washington will continue to string the country along—even as the carnage continues .

KABUL—Since the United States invaded Afghanistan almost 20 years ago, the Afghan people have experienced four U.S. elections and three different U.S. presidents. Each vote brought feelings of uncertainty, hope, and trepidation. But this year, with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden saying they finally want to withdraw U.S. forces from the country, this could end up being the most consequential vote for Afghans since 2001.
KABUL—Since the United States invaded Afghanistan almost 20 years ago, the Afghan people have experienced four U.S. elections and three different U.S. presidents. Each vote brought feelings of uncertainty, hope, and trepidation. But this year, with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden saying they finally want to withdraw U.S. forces from the country, this could end up being the most consequential vote for Afghans since 2001.
There’s the question, of course, of whether and how either candidate will actually carry out this withdrawal. Trump’s tweets about pulling out troops by December were quickly corrected by military officials; Afghan security officials for their part doubt the United States can dismantle a decades-long presence in a couple of months in the middle of a pandemic. And then there’s the Taliban.
On Monday, terrorists attacked Kabul University and killed at least 19 people, wounding dozens more. Afghan government officials blamed the Taliban; the militant group denied it was behind the attack, though both the Taliban and the Islamic State have targeted schools in the past. Since signing a deal with the United States in February, and promising to curtail attacks against U.S. forces and cut ties with al Qaeda, the Taliban have been emboldened in Afghanistan.
The peace agreement has done nothing to curb violence against Afghan civilians and security forces, with violence reaching record levels in recent months. Over the last year, the Trump White House has offered the Taliban a lot while proffering Kabul very little, continually criticizing the administration of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and cutting U.S. aid.
But it’s not clear where Biden—who as vice president long favored an enduring U.S. counterterrorism mission in the country—really stands on the Taliban or Afghanistan’s future. And Afghans worry that he’ll have enough nation-building to do at home after four years of Trump’s wrecking ball. That could leave an early Biden administration distracted and looking anywhere but at Afghanistan. The upshot, many in Kabul fear, is that Washington will continue to string the country along—even as the carnage continues.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-02--Guo Wengui and Steve Bannon Are Flooding the Zone With Hunter Biden Conspiracies

Guo Wengui and Steve Bannon Are Flooding the Zone With Hunter Biden Conspiracies A media network linked to Steve Bannon and his billionaire funder Guo Wengui has continued to act as a breeding ground for false stories about Hunter Biden , which have metastasized into wild claims repeated by mainstream commentators and broadened online attacks on a Texas-based Chinese dissident already in hiding after Guo ’ s followers congregated outside his home .
GNews , an outlet of Guo and Bannon ’ s GTV Media Group , has published numerous false stories about Biden , the son of Democratic presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nexus for the spread of alleged sex tapes by aggregating content from a popular YouTube streamer with ties to Guo .
It was also an early source of unsubstantiated rumors that the Biden family hid business dealings in China—fictions that were eventually repeated by President Donald Trump during the second presidential debate .
Twitter confirmed that it had suspended Guo-linked accounts that spread the rumors , but the exiled Chinese businessman and his media properties remain a hub for the explosively viral spread of disinformation .
Weeks before the New York Post published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the contents of Hunter Biden ’ s so-called hard drive , allegations of multiple hard drives that would incriminate Biden were broadcast on Sept. 25 by Lude Media , a YouTube channel run by the dissident streamer and Guo ally Wang Dinggang .
They were then shared by Twitter accounts linked to GNews and to Guo and Bannon ’ s Himalaya movement , according to a story in the Daily Beast , along with Bannon himself , who boasted on Dutch TV in late September that he had Hunter Biden ’ s hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and has been photographed with Bannon and Rudy Giuliani , but that ’ s not the only evidence he was involved in the spread of the Biden rumors .
On an Oct. 13 Lude Media livestream , broadcast hours before the Post ran its stories , Wang and a fellow analyst said the Post would likely publish the contents of the hard drives the following day .
Twitter accounts linked to Guo have continued to spread an array of escalating false claims about Biden , including Pizzagate-esque rumors of child abuse that also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ along with false stories about the Biden family ’ s dealings with the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) .
“ They ’ re trying to imitate tactics used by QAnon , ” inflating conspiracy theories until their evolution becomes unstoppable , said Keenan Chen , a researcher for the misinformation-tracking nonprofit First Draft who has tracked the spread of the Biden rumors .
The release of the alleged sex tapes , which also claim to show Hunter Biden using drugs on a visit to Beijing , were spread by followers of Guo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a Himalaya movement Discord chat group .
Members of the group tweeted links to the tapes once they were published on GNews and gave each other instructions to tag prominent political influencers throughout the spectrum , according to a source with knowledge of the group ’ s activities .
If a group member was suspended , they were told to immediately use another email to create a new Twitter account , the source said .
Twitter confirmed that it recently suspended numerous accounts linked to Guo , GTV , and Guo and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accounts involved in spreading the sex tape rumors , for violating the site ’ s platform manipulation and spam policy .
It declined to say how many accounts it had banned or which tweets triggered the suspensions .
It may have been too late .
Discussions of the alleged sex tape , along with baseless claims of child abuse , quickly became “ very visible on English-language social media , ” Chen said .
By the evening of Oct. 24 , the actor and far-right influencer James Woods had referenced the story and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others followed .
The Biden rumors have reached a fever pitch in the days before the election .
Many of the most potent claims have roots with anti-CCP and far-right actors , including the Falun Gong-backed Epoch Times .
The CCP critic Christopher Balding—who was behind a discredited brief on Hunter Biden ’ s business dealings commissioned by a far-right editor , Mark Simon , at the Hong Kong-based Apple Daily—appeared on Bannon ’ s podcast to share his claims .
Wang was a key driver of the brief ’ s virality on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right-wing influencers including Newt Gingrich .
“ It does seem clear that there is a concerning nexus developing between anti-CCP conspiracy theories and other conspiracy theories like QAnon , ” said Elise Thomas , a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute who independently investigated the Balding report .
Bannon has notoriously said the key to dealing with media is to “ flood the zone with shit ” —and Guo ’ s money has given the former Breitbart editor in chief a prime position in a disinformation network that has not only derailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weaponized by Guo to target other dissidents whom he vowed to “ eliminate.
” Guo fled China when his patron , Vice Minister of State Security Ma Jian , fell from grace within the CCP in January 2015 .
He quickly joined forces with Bannon , launching a self-proclaimed government-in-exile before Bannon was arrested by U.S. federal agents on Guo ’ s yacht off the shores of Connecticut on fraud charges .
In April , the pair launched GTV Media Group , a media company that says it is dedicated to exposing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is currently being investigated by the FBI and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for potential misuse of $ 300 million of funds from investors .
Despite his proclaimed anti-CCP agenda , Guo ’ s actions have garnered vast speculation about where his loyalties truly lie .
A consultancy firm hired in 2018 by a Guo-affiliated company accused him in court filings of being a “ dissident-hunter ” —claims that a lawyer for Guo has denied .
There have even been private questions raised about Guo ’ s allegiances in conservative political circles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bob Fu .
Lately , however , Guo has lived up to that moniker .
In late September , around the time Guo-linked outlets began disseminating disinformation about Hunter Biden , the businessman launched his own array of attacks , urging his followers to gather outside the homes of Chinese dissidents he branded as “ traitors ” spying for the CCP .
Groups of protesters spread flyers and chanted in the driveways outside the homes of Fu and his fellow dissident Wu Jianmin , causing Fu and his family to leave their Midland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Guo ’ s anti-dissident campaign appeared unrelated at first—he had railed against Fu and the dissident artist Ai Weiwei as early as January—but the Fu and Biden conspiracies have somehow converged within the rabbit hole .
On Oct. 27 , Lude Media and GNews first shared an alleged screenshot of an email from “ Bob Fenet ” —said to be a pseudonym for Bob Fu—to James Biden , the nominee ’ s brother .
The evidence presented is incredibly shaky , but pro-Guo accounts immediately began sharing the alleged email , accumulating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Breaking news from # LudeMedia , ” one tweet from the pro-Guo account @ John316_truth read .
“ Bombshell email !
!
Bob Fenet is Bob Fu !
!
The phony pastor , real CCP spy who pretends to be a Republican but in the pants with the # BidenCrimeFamily # LaptopFromHell.
” Twitter removed tweets about the email on Friday morning after an inquiry from Foreign Policy .
The company confirmed that it had removed the tweet from @ John316_truth for violating its private information policy .
Other tweets containing the screenshot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ details have been lifted from social media profiles of a real person apparently residing in Baton Rouge , Louisiana—remain on the website .
Fu ’ s own Twitter posts have been bombarded by Guo followers accusing him of being part of a vast conspiracy to elect Joe Biden .
This has come as a surprise to Fu , himself a conservative evangelical and Trump supporter who has close ties to prominent Republican politicians and faith leaders and whose nonprofit organization , which provides legal assistance to Chinese victims of religious repression , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ show how low and desperate the Guo/Bannon group would go in order to have the CCP interfere in the U.S. election , ” said Fu , who told me he is worried by the vitriolic online comments accusing him of being part of a Biden conspiracy .
The rumors may start as typo-filled , radical QAnon-like nonsense .
This has not slowed their virality .
Unlike QAnon , which started on 8chan and spread for years through the internet ’ s annals before making its way to Facebook and Twitter , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gained momentum on mainstream platforms—leaping easily from there to the lips of conservative commentators and House members .
The conspiracies—and their hardcore anti-CCP themes—have proved attractive to some Chinese exiles as well , including well-known figures like the soccer star Hao Haidong , who show up to Guo ’ s rallies , call in to Bannon ’ s podcast , and donate to the pair ’ s myriad ventures .
In the paranoid political culture of the CCP , underhanded business dealings and brazen power grabs are ordinary occurrences .
It makes wild @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States , who share them in closed WeChat groups that are both incredibly influential and nearly impossible for independent observers to monitor .
Guo and Bannon have also shaken the preelection conversation among the Chinese diaspora and among Chinese-speaking voters , both inside and outside the United States .
Hunter Biden rumors have erupted in Taiwan , where Apple Daily has published allegations that a Taiwanese businessman acted as his business broker in both China and Taiwan .
Guo ’ s campaign against Fu has intensified speculation of the businessman ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the pastor , had gradually picked up steam for years among conservative policymakers in Washington .
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz accused the CCP of being behind the attacks on Fu .
So did Sam Brownback , Trump ’ s religious ambassador , who said Friday that the CCP was orchestrating the “ harassment of US citizen Pastor @ BobFu4China , defender of religious freedom , and others on American soil.
” Commentators have speculated that Guo , who has himself been the target of Chinese-backed online harassment campaigns , could be hedging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within China .
His true motives , along with Bannon ’ s knowledge of them , have become their own bottomless well of speculation .
The U.S. presidential election is a day away , and , just as it was in 2016 , the zone is flooded with shit .

A media network linked to Steve Bannon and his billionaire funder Guo Wengui has continued to act as a breeding ground for false stories about Hunter Biden, which have metastasized into wild claims repeated by mainstream commentators and broadened online attacks on a Texas-based Chinese dissident already in hiding after Guo’s followers congregated outside his home.
A media network linked to Steve Bannon and his billionaire funder Guo Wengui has continued to act as a breeding ground for false stories about Hunter Biden, which have metastasized into wild claims repeated by mainstream commentators and broadened online attacks on a Texas-based Chinese dissident already in hiding after Guo’s followers congregated outside his home.
GNews, an outlet of Guo and Bannon’s GTV Media Group, has published numerous false stories about Biden, the son of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, operating as a nexus for the spread of alleged sex tapes by aggregating content from a popular YouTube streamer with ties to Guo. It was also an early source of unsubstantiated rumors that the Biden family hid business dealings in China—fictions that were eventually repeated by President Donald Trump during the second presidential debate.
Twitter confirmed that it had suspended Guo-linked accounts that spread the rumors, but the exiled Chinese businessman and his media properties remain a hub for the explosively viral spread of disinformation.
Weeks before the New York Post published its Oct. 14 series of stories on the contents of Hunter Biden’s so-called hard drive, allegations of multiple hard drives that would incriminate Biden were broadcast on Sept. 25 by Lude Media, a YouTube channel run by the dissident streamer and Guo ally Wang Dinggang. They were then shared by Twitter accounts linked to GNews and to Guo and Bannon’s Himalaya movement, according to a story in the Daily Beast, along with Bannon himself, who boasted on Dutch TV in late September that he had Hunter Biden’s hard drive.
Wang is close to Guo and has been photographed with Bannon and Rudy Giuliani, but that’s not the only evidence he was involved in the spread of the Biden rumors. On an Oct. 13 Lude Media livestream, broadcast hours before the Post ran its stories, Wang and a fellow analyst said the Post would likely publish the contents of the hard drives the following day.
Twitter accounts linked to Guo have continued to spread an array of escalating false claims about Biden, including Pizzagate-esque rumors of child abuse that also originated with Wang and Lude Media, along with false stories about the Biden family’s dealings with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). “They’re trying to imitate tactics used by QAnon,” inflating conspiracy theories until their evolution becomes unstoppable, said Keenan Chen, a researcher for the misinformation-tracking nonprofit First Draft who has tracked the spread of the Biden rumors.
The release of the alleged sex tapes, which also claim to show Hunter Biden using drugs on a visit to Beijing, were spread by followers of Guo in an Oct. 24 Twitter campaign coordinated in a Himalaya movement Discord chat group. Members of the group tweeted links to the tapes once they were published on GNews and gave each other instructions to tag prominent political influencers throughout the spectrum, according to a source with knowledge of the group’s activities. If a group member was suspended, they were told to immediately use another email to create a new Twitter account, the source said.
Twitter confirmed that it recently suspended numerous accounts linked to Guo, GTV, and Guo and Bannon’s Himalaya movement, including accounts involved in spreading the sex tape rumors, for violating the site’s platform manipulation and spam policy. It declined to say how many accounts it had banned or which tweets triggered the suspensions.
It may have been too late. Discussions of the alleged sex tape, along with baseless claims of child abuse, quickly became “very visible on English-language social media,” Chen said. By the evening of Oct. 24, the actor and far-right influencer James Woods had referenced the story and accused Twitter of censoring it. Many others followed.
The Biden rumors have reached a fever pitch in the days before the election. Many of the most potent claims have roots with anti-CCP and far-right actors, including the Falun Gong-backed Epoch Times. The CCP critic Christopher Balding—who was behind a discredited brief on Hunter Biden’s business dealings commissioned by a far-right editor, Mark Simon, at the Hong Kong-based Apple Daily—appeared on Bannon’s podcast to share his claims. Wang was a key driver of the brief’s virality on Twitter, where it was shared by right-wing influencers including Newt Gingrich.
“It does seem clear that there is a concerning nexus developing between anti-CCP conspiracy theories and other conspiracy theories like QAnon,” said Elise Thomas, a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute who independently investigated the Balding report.
Bannon has notoriously said the key to dealing with media is to “flood the zone with shit”—and Guo’s money has given the former Breitbart editor in chief a prime position in a disinformation network that has not only derailed public discourse but has begun to be weaponized by Guo to target other dissidents whom he vowed to “eliminate.”
Guo fled China when his patron, Vice Minister of State Security Ma Jian, fell from grace within the CCP in January 2015. He quickly joined forces with Bannon, launching a self-proclaimed government-in-exile before Bannon was arrested by U.S. federal agents on Guo’s yacht off the shores of Connecticut on fraud charges.
In April, the pair launched GTV Media Group, a media company that says it is dedicated to exposing the truth about the CCP. The company is currently being investigated by the FBI and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for potential misuse of $300 million of funds from investors.
Despite his proclaimed anti-CCP agenda, Guo’s actions have garnered vast speculation about where his loyalties truly lie. A consultancy firm hired in 2018 by a Guo-affiliated company accused him in court filings of being a “dissident-hunter”—claims that a lawyer for Guo has denied. There have even been private questions raised about Guo’s allegiances in conservative political circles themselves, according to the dissident pastor Bob Fu.
Lately, however, Guo has lived up to that moniker. In late September, around the time Guo-linked outlets began disseminating disinformation about Hunter Biden, the businessman launched his own array of attacks, urging his followers to gather outside the homes of Chinese dissidents he branded as “traitors” spying for the CCP. Groups of protesters spread flyers and chanted in the driveways outside the homes of Fu and his fellow dissident Wu Jianmin, causing Fu and his family to leave their Midland, Texas, home under police protection.
Guo’s anti-dissident campaign appeared unrelated at first—he had railed against Fu and the dissident artist Ai Weiwei as early as January—but the Fu and Biden conspiracies have somehow converged within the rabbit hole. On Oct. 27, Lude Media and GNews first shared an alleged screenshot of an email from “Bob Fenet”—said to be a pseudonym for Bob Fu—to James Biden, the nominee’s brother.
The evidence presented is incredibly shaky, but pro-Guo accounts immediately began sharing the alleged email, accumulating thousands of likes and retweets. “Breaking news from #LudeMedia,” one tweet from the pro-Guo account @John316_truth read. “Bombshell email!! Bob Fenet is Bob Fu!! The phony pastor, real CCP spy who pretends to be a Republican but in the pants with the #BidenCrimeFamily #LaptopFromHell.”
Twitter removed tweets about the email on Friday morning after an inquiry from Foreign Policy. The company confirmed that it had removed the tweet from @John316_truth for violating its private information policy. Other tweets containing the screenshot and mentioning “Bob Fenet”—whose details have been lifted from social media profiles of a real person apparently residing in Baton Rouge, Louisiana—remain on the website.
Fu’s own Twitter posts have been bombarded by Guo followers accusing him of being part of a vast conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. This has come as a surprise to Fu, himself a conservative evangelical and Trump supporter who has close ties to prominent Republican politicians and faith leaders and whose nonprofit organization, which provides legal assistance to Chinese victims of religious repression, is widely respected in Washington. The rumors “show how low and desperate the Guo/Bannon group would go in order to have the CCP interfere in the U.S. election,” said Fu, who told me he is worried by the vitriolic online comments accusing him of being part of a Biden conspiracy.
The rumors may start as typo-filled, radical QAnon-like nonsense. This has not slowed their virality. Unlike QAnon, which started on 8chan and spread for years through the internet’s annals before making its way to Facebook and Twitter, the Guo-backed spread of Hunter Biden conspiracies has gained momentum on mainstream platforms—leaping easily from there to the lips of conservative commentators and House members.
The conspiracies—and their hardcore anti-CCP themes—have proved attractive to some Chinese exiles as well, including well-known figures like the soccer star Hao Haidong, who show up to Guo’s rallies, call in to Bannon’s podcast, and donate to the pair’s myriad ventures. In the paranoid political culture of the CCP, underhanded business dealings and brazen power grabs are ordinary occurrences. It makes wild Biden rumors more believable to Chinese in the United States, who share them in closed WeChat groups that are both incredibly influential and nearly impossible for independent observers to monitor.
Guo and Bannon have also shaken the preelection conversation among the Chinese diaspora and among Chinese-speaking voters, both inside and outside the United States. Hunter Biden rumors have erupted in Taiwan, where Apple Daily has published allegations that a Taiwanese businessman acted as his business broker in both China and Taiwan.
Guo’s campaign against Fu has intensified speculation of the businessman’s true motives, which, according to the pastor, had gradually picked up steam for years among conservative policymakers in Washington.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz accused the CCP of being behind the attacks on Fu. So did Sam Brownback, Trump’s religious ambassador, who said Friday that the CCP was orchestrating the “harassment of US citizen Pastor @BobFu4China, defender of religious freedom, and others on American soil.”
Commentators have speculated that Guo, who has himself been the target of Chinese-backed online harassment campaigns, could be hedging his bets to protect relationships he maintains within China. His true motives, along with Bannon’s knowledge of them, have become their own bottomless well of speculation. The U.S. presidential election is a day away, and, just as it was in 2016, the zone is flooded with shit.