foreignpolicy--2020-06-12--In Cambodia, a Spiritual Army Battles an Earthly Pandemic

PHNOM PENH , Cambodia—A scarecrow army has quietly amassed in Cambodia .
Some soldiers smile from coarse burlap faces , while others bare fangs—with many bearing plastic guns tied to their wooden arms .
Their enemy haunts the streets at night , unbound to a physical dimension , intending to possess humans and spread disease .
If these maleficent spirits see a scarecrow holding vigil in front of a home , they will not be able to enter , or so goes the belief .
The scarecrows are known as ting mong , and while they ’ re regularly seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been as omnipresent since the fall of the brutal Khmer Rouge regime in 1979 .
That year , according to the recollections of older Cambodians , people made effigies of Khmer Rouge soldiers , trapping their spirits inside scarecrows that were then burned in mass bonfires .
In alternative tellings of this story , a disease spread throughout the provinces that year , associated with the dead cadres , and scarecrows were erected to banish it .
The tradition has carried through generations , remerging in full force in response to the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of cases of the coronavirus in Southeast Asia .
But there are uncorroborated reports of rampant coronavirus-related deaths in the countryside , and there ’ s a distinct sense that the government has done far too little to prevent the spread of the virus .
Cambodia kept flights from China open long after its neighbors shut off international travel , and in February it permitted a cruise ship filled with potentially infected tourists ( that had been turned away from numerous countries ) to dock in the port city of Sihanoukville .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ army was allowed to continue on March 15 .
The government has gone after those who criticized its response , arresting dozens of people , including a number of opposition activists , on allegations of spreading fake news .
Despite the ostensibly low rate of infections , the coronavirus has imparted a devastating blow to Cambodia ’ s economy , creating a crisis for the country ’ s most financially vulnerable .
The critical tourism industry has been all but eviscerated , hurting small businesses around the country .
Migrant workers who send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Malaysia—as well as those who work in Cambodian factories—have returned home en masse after losing their jobs .
The government announced an economic stimulus plan three months ago , but the much-needed financial reprieve promised to farmers and factory workers has yet to materialize .
The response to the virus itself has also been relatively minimal .
Travel between provinces was banned in mid-April for the week of Khmer New Year , though there was scant enforcement .
The country had little in the way of a lockdown and few social distancing requirements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doctors and community leaders have participated in coronavirus health seminars .
These workshops offered education on how to practice safe hygiene , collect biological samples for testing , and assess high-risk individuals for quarantine .
Free hand sanitizer and surgical masks have been distributed in low-income communities .
But these efforts have hardly reached across the country—and Cambodia ’ s low caseload appears to have come less from response than from luck .
Today , the country boasts one of the smallest outbreaks in the world .
Just 126 cases have been confirmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains limited .
Cambodia ’ s success has been attributed to everything from its young population to stronger immune systems to the ubiquity of an older tuberculosis vaccination .
But in rural areas , residents have taken their own precautions—leading campaigns of solidarity and strength in places where public health efforts are all but nonexistent and the government is insufficient or untrusted .
Little information about the coronavirus has made it to rural provinces , and what has is mostly disseminated in the form of Facebook posts or word of mouth .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and safety with methods ranging from the strictly clinical to zealously divine .
Although Cambodia is a majority-Theravada Buddhist nation , there is a broad range of diversity among minority belief systems , including elements of animism , Hinduism , Islam , and Christianity .
Each has a unique interpretation of the novel coronavirus ’ s genesis , why the pandemic came into being , and the toll it will take on the world—reflecting not only fears about the pandemic , but also other worries in turbulent times .
A 91-year-old Buddhist nun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in monasteries since the age of 26 , claims she has known of this invisible enemy for 20 years .
She refers to the battle against the coronavirus as a second Cold War .
From the summit of her hilltop pagoda in central Kampong Speu province , she urges visitors to protect themselves with masks and social distancing and prays every few hours through the night and day for the lives of her people and the welfare of humanity as a whole .
She foretells that Cambodia ’ s Buddhist faith will mitigate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monk who says he has lived in a monastery on Phnom Kulen , a mountain near Angkor Wat , for “ many lifetimes , ” understands the effects of COVID-19 to be a reflection of karma on both an individual and societal scale .
A follower of both the Buddha and Preah Prum , a Hindu god believed to have created the elements , Prum fears the world has lost touch with the values that determine humans ’ reincarnation and relationship to the gods .
Cambodia , he said , will experience only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to other countries .
Prum attributes the relatively low mortality rate to Cambodia ’ s karma-conscious society .
While strengthened prayer and karma provide the foundation of these communities ’ coronavirus response , their spiritual leaders suggest heightened measures one can take to achieve safety and relief .
Tom Chhea , 73 , is an elder in her indigenous Souy community , which inhabits the base of Mount Kirirom in Kampong Speu .
In March , she and scores of Souy elders held an elaborate sacrificial ceremony honoring Lo Ngaev and Sre Ku @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mountain , to ask for protection from COVID-19 .
The elders hiked nearly a day to the sacred location , where they prayed for their community and way of life—which once faced mortal extermination at the hands of the Khmer Rouge , and whose livelihood has been degraded by the government ’ s seizure of their native land , later sold to Chinese developers .
Today , indigenous Souy youth , including Chhea ’ s grandchildren , must travel two hours every day to work at a garment factory in Chbar Mon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that their children and grandchildren be protected wherever they go , including in their crowded factory , which has remained in operation throughout the pandemic .
On the outskirts of Kampong Speu lives Kru Choeun , a traditional healer known as a “ Kru Khmer.
” Traditional Cambodian sorcerers are revered and sometimes feared as spiritual leaders capable of practicing shamanism , performing exorcisms , and divining the future .
Choeun often offers water blessings and talismans to those who come to him for protection from evil spirits .
The most potent shield @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soft metal , mixing Sanskrit writing with geometric designs .
It is meant to protect those who wear it in the form of a bracelet or belt from attacks from all sides .
Choeun does not claim to know why the coronavirus arrived , but he advocates for a balance of spiritual and medicinal treatment .
Most illnesses are physical ailments caused by spiritual torment , he says , and if one has weak karma , they will be more vulnerable to ill-intended spirits .
When it comes to a disease like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ performed in a deeper resonance than a traditional doctor can provide .
One needs spiritual blessings and guidance on how best to live in accordance with the dharma , he says—one needs to fortify their soul .
As the coronavirus has eased—Cambodia has reported just two new cases in the past two weeks—the army of scarecrows remains .
The cornerstone of Cambodia ’ s economy is garment factories , which have been decimated by disruptions to global supply chains .
The shuttering of international travel has gutted Cambodia ’ s critical tourism sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , threaten entire rural communities deeply dependent on remittances .
Many Cambodians believe faith helped battle the pandemic , but whether it can help with the coming blow remains to be seen .

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia—A scarecrow army has quietly amassed in Cambodia. Some soldiers smile from coarse burlap faces, while others bare fangs—with many bearing plastic guns tied to their wooden arms. Their enemy haunts the streets at night, unbound to a physical dimension, intending to possess humans and spread disease. If these maleficent spirits see a scarecrow holding vigil in front of a home, they will not be able to enter, or so goes the belief.
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia—A scarecrow army has quietly amassed in Cambodia. Some soldiers smile from coarse burlap faces, while others bare fangs—with many bearing plastic guns tied to their wooden arms. Their enemy haunts the streets at night, unbound to a physical dimension, intending to possess humans and spread disease. If these maleficent spirits see a scarecrow holding vigil in front of a home, they will not be able to enter, or so goes the belief.
The scarecrows are known as ting mong, and while they’re regularly seen across Cambodia, they haven’t been as omnipresent since the fall of the brutal Khmer Rouge regime in 1979. That year, according to the recollections of older Cambodians, people made effigies of Khmer Rouge soldiers, trapping their spirits inside scarecrows that were then burned in mass bonfires. In alternative tellings of this story, a disease spread throughout the provinces that year, associated with the dead cadres, and scarecrows were erected to banish it. The tradition has carried through generations, remerging in full force in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Cambodia has among the lowest number of cases of the coronavirus in Southeast Asia. But there are uncorroborated reports of rampant coronavirus-related deaths in the countryside, and there’s a distinct sense that the government has done far too little to prevent the spread of the virus. Cambodia kept flights from China open long after its neighbors shut off international travel, and in February it permitted a cruise ship filled with potentially infected tourists (that had been turned away from numerous countries) to dock in the port city of Sihanoukville. A joint military exercise with the Chinese army was allowed to continue on March 15. The government has gone after those who criticized its response, arresting dozens of people, including a number of opposition activists, on allegations of spreading fake news.
Despite the ostensibly low rate of infections, the coronavirus has imparted a devastating blow to Cambodia’s economy, creating a crisis for the country’s most financially vulnerable. The critical tourism industry has been all but eviscerated, hurting small businesses around the country. Migrant workers who send remittances from Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia—as well as those who work in Cambodian factories—have returned home en masse after losing their jobs. The government announced an economic stimulus plan three months ago, but the much-needed financial reprieve promised to farmers and factory workers has yet to materialize.
The response to the virus itself has also been relatively minimal. Travel between provinces was banned in mid-April for the week of Khmer New Year, though there was scant enforcement. The country had little in the way of a lockdown and few social distancing requirements. Over the past three months, doctors and community leaders have participated in coronavirus health seminars. These workshops offered education on how to practice safe hygiene, collect biological samples for testing, and assess high-risk individuals for quarantine. Free hand sanitizer and surgical masks have been distributed in low-income communities. But these efforts have hardly reached across the country—and Cambodia’s low caseload appears to have come less from response than from luck. Today, the country boasts one of the smallest outbreaks in the world. Just 126 cases have been confirmed, and no deaths, though testing remains limited.
A man wears a face mask as he crosses the river to the island of Kaoh Khsach Tonlea on May 11.
Cambodia’s success has been attributed to everything from its young population to stronger immune systems to the ubiquity of an older tuberculosis vaccination. But in rural areas, residents have taken their own precautions—leading campaigns of solidarity and strength in places where public health efforts are all but nonexistent and the government is insufficient or untrusted. Little information about the coronavirus has made it to rural provinces, and what has is mostly disseminated in the form of Facebook posts or word of mouth. In response, communities have searched for answers and safety with methods ranging from the strictly clinical to zealously divine.
Although Cambodia is a majority-Theravada Buddhist nation, there is a broad range of diversity among minority belief systems, including elements of animism, Hinduism, Islam, and Christianity. Each has a unique interpretation of the novel coronavirus’s genesis, why the pandemic came into being, and the toll it will take on the world—reflecting not only fears about the pandemic, but also other worries in turbulent times.
A 91-year-old Buddhist nun, Prum Rith, who has lived in monasteries since the age of 26, claims she has known of this invisible enemy for 20 years. She refers to the battle against the coronavirus as a second Cold War. From the summit of her hilltop pagoda in central Kampong Speu province, she urges visitors to protect themselves with masks and social distancing and prays every few hours through the night and day for the lives of her people and the welfare of humanity as a whole. She foretells that Cambodia’s Buddhist faith will mitigate the danger.
Prum Rith, a 91-year-old Buddhist nun, sits in her Phnom Srang pagoda in central Kampong Speu province on April 6. She has lived in monasteries since she was 26.
In photographs taken on April 8, decorations are propped up at a monastery on Phnom Kulen, a holy site in Siem Reap province, where Kheng Prum, right, says he has lived for “many lifetimes.” Prum, 47, is a Ta Bos monk who attributes the relatively low mortality rate in Cambodia to its karma-conscious society.
Kheng Prum, a monk who says he has lived in a monastery on Phnom Kulen, a mountain near Angkor Wat, for “many lifetimes,” understands the effects of COVID-19 to be a reflection of karma on both an individual and societal scale. A follower of both the Buddha and Preah Prum, a Hindu god believed to have created the elements, Prum fears the world has lost touch with the values that determine humans’ reincarnation and relationship to the gods. Cambodia, he said, will experience only a minor impact from the coronavirus compared to other countries. Prum attributes the relatively low mortality rate to Cambodia’s karma-conscious society.
While strengthened prayer and karma provide the foundation of these communities’ coronavirus response, their spiritual leaders suggest heightened measures one can take to achieve safety and relief.
Tom Chhea, 73, is an elder in her indigenous Souy community, which inhabits the base of Mount Kirirom in Kampong Speu. In March, she and scores of Souy elders held an elaborate sacrificial ceremony honoring Lo Ngaev and Sre Ku, the spirits of her village and mountain, to ask for protection from COVID-19. The elders hiked nearly a day to the sacred location, where they prayed for their community and way of life—which once faced mortal extermination at the hands of the Khmer Rouge, and whose livelihood has been degraded by the government’s seizure of their native land, later sold to Chinese developers. Today, indigenous Souy youth, including Chhea’s grandchildren, must travel two hours every day to work at a garment factory in Chbar Mon. During the ceremony, the elders asked that their children and grandchildren be protected wherever they go, including in their crowded factory, which has remained in operation throughout the pandemic.
On the outskirts of Kampong Speu lives Kru Choeun, a traditional healer known as a “Kru Khmer.” Traditional Cambodian sorcerers are revered and sometimes feared as spiritual leaders capable of practicing shamanism, performing exorcisms, and divining the future. Choeun often offers water blessings and talismans to those who come to him for protection from evil spirits. The most potent shield, he says, is carved from soft metal, mixing Sanskrit writing with geometric designs. It is meant to protect those who wear it in the form of a bracelet or belt from attacks from all sides.
A boy stands next to the scarecrow he made for his family near Toul Svay, Phnom Penh province, on May 11.
Choeun does not claim to know why the coronavirus arrived, but he advocates for a balance of spiritual and medicinal treatment. Most illnesses are physical ailments caused by spiritual torment, he says, and if one has weak karma, they will be more vulnerable to ill-intended spirits. When it comes to a disease like the coronavirus, Choeun believes treatment must be performed in a deeper resonance than a traditional doctor can provide. One needs spiritual blessings and guidance on how best to live in accordance with the dharma, he says—one needs to fortify their soul.
As the coronavirus has eased—Cambodia has reported just two new cases in the past two weeks—the army of scarecrows remains. The cornerstone of Cambodia’s economy is garment factories, which have been decimated by disruptions to global supply chains. The shuttering of international travel has gutted Cambodia’s critical tourism sector. These economic shocks, in turn, threaten entire rural communities deeply dependent on remittances. Many Cambodians believe faith helped battle the pandemic, but whether it can help with the coming blow remains to be seen.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-12--Is Syria’s Assad on the Edge?

Is Syria’s Assad on the Edge?

Is Syria ’ s Assad on the Edge ?
Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : New U.S. sanctions against Syria could push its economy over the edge , Trump threatens the International Criminal Court , and Australia examines its own record on the deaths of indigenous people in police custody .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , please sign up here .
Syria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suffer another blow next Wednesday , when new U.S. sanctions come into force imposing penalties against any global actor that does business with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad .
The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act , which received bipartisan support in Congress and was passed as part of the annual defense spending bill , sets up the most punishing sanctions on the regime since the Syrian civil war began nine years ago .
They are intended to pressure the embattled Assad into enacting human rights reforms .
On Monday , the top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affairs committees called on the Trump administration to vigorously enforce the new measures once they go into effect .
“ The regime and its sponsors must stop the slaughter of innocent people and provide the Syrian people a path toward reconciliation , stability and freedom , ” they said in a statement .
But critics of the Caesar Act fear that it could make life even harder for Syrian civilians and will likely have knock-on effects for Lebanon ’ s fragile economy .
Spiraling crisis .
While Assad appeared to be emerging victorious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turned to reconstruction , a spiraling economy is now threatening his grip on power .
The toll of years of war and corruption has been compounded by the deep economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon , Syria ’ s main conduit to the outside world .
More than half of Syrian citizens struggle with access to food and the value of the Syrian currency has plummeted 70 percent since April .
Under pressure .
Anti-Assad protests—rare since he brutally regained control of most of the country—broke out in the southern city of Sweida on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , calling for the president ’ s resignation .
While the crowds were modest , the demonstrations were unusual , as Sweida has remained loyal to the regime .
Pockets of protest have broken out elsewhere in the country , including in Daraa—where the 2011 Syrian uprising began .
On Thursday , Assad sacked Prime Minister Imad Khamis , who had held the job since 2016 .
No formal explanation was given , but the move was widely interpreted by observers as a bid to diffuse growing anger over the economic crisis .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet , as the grievances that sparked the 2011 uprising not only persist but have been exacerbated in the intervening years by sanctions , war , and corruption , as Charles Lister writes in Politico Magazine .
Trump sanctions the ICC .
The Trump administration announced plans on Thursday to impose economic sanctions and visa bans on officials at the International Criminal Court ( ICC ) who are investigating allegations of rape and torture against U.S. soldiers who served at CIA interrogation sites in Afghanistan .
While U.S. skepticism of the international court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it has escalated during his tenure .
Unlike many of its allies , the United States is not a signatory of the Rome Statute that created the court .
Afghanistan joined the ICC in 2017 , enabling it to bring the case against the U.S. troops .
The move puts ICC civil servants in the crosshairs of sanctions usually reserved for despots and war criminals , FP ’ s Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch report .
Australia examines its record on race .
Almost three weeks since the police killing of George @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world are calling for renewed attention to racial injustice within their own countries .
In Australia , tens of thousands of people took to the streets on Saturday in solidarity with U.S. demonstrations and to protest the treatment of Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders , who were only given full citizenship of Australia in 1967 .
Since 1991 , 434 indigenous people have died in police custody in Australia .
Indigenous people are jailed at a vastly disproportionate rate , accounting for 30 percent of those behind bars despite making up just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australian government has condemned the protests for going ahead during the coronavirus pandemic , with Prime Minister Scott Morrison calling for police to charge protesters who take to the streets this weekend for breaking restrictions .
Hong Kong crackdown .
Hong Kong police are establishing a new unit that will enforce the territory ’ s controversial new security law announced by China last month with the intent of crushing dissent in the territory .
The new police “ action arm ” will have investigative and intelligence-gathering capabilities , Hong Kong ’ s security @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South China Morning Post in an interview , hinting that the new service would also work in collaboration with police from mainland China .
Activists in Hong Kong have long feared the open intrusion of mainland security services , which previously worked illegally in the city to kidnap and threaten dissidents .
Spreading violence in the Sahel .
Ten soldiers were killed and six injured in an attack on a military post in the Ivory Coast , near the country ’ s border with Burkina Faso , on Thursday .
It was the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since 2016 .
No one has claimed responsibility for the attack , but experts fear that violence by militant groups aligned with al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the border regions between Mali , Burkina Faso , and Niger may spread to neighboring countries on the African coast .
Social programs under strain in Nigeria .
The collapse in global oil prices and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic are straining Nigeria ’ s economy , and proposals to dramatically cut funding for primary health care and education have sparked outrage .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ measures in the coming weeks .
If passed , they would see spending on local primary health care services cut by more than 40 percent , likely affecting maternity care , immunization programs , and family planning services .
Funding for universal basic education would be reduced by over 50 percent .
The ongoing U.S. protests against police brutality are unprecedented in both their size and their diversity .
A tectonic shift appears to be underway , as U.S. citizens outside of communities of color come to understand the threat that racial injustice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but for the country ’ s ideals at large , as Theodore R. Johnson , a senior fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice , writes in National Review .
“ At a time when political and partisan polarization seem to doom the prospect of good governance , Americans across lines that typically divide us have come together daily , for weeks on end , to compel a change in behavior by the state and its agents , aligning us more closely to our professed principles , ” he writes .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: New U.S. sanctions against Syria could push its economy over the edge, Trump threatens the International Criminal Court, and Australia examines its own record on the deaths of indigenous people in police custody.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
New U.S. Sanctions Take Effect Next Week
Syria’s collapsing economy is set to suffer another blow next Wednesday, when new U.S. sanctions come into force imposing penalties against any global actor that does business with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which received bipartisan support in Congress and was passed as part of the annual defense spending bill, sets up the most punishing sanctions on the regime since the Syrian civil war began nine years ago. They are intended to pressure the embattled Assad into enacting human rights reforms.
On Monday, the top Republicans and Democrats from the congressional foreign affairs committees called on the Trump administration to vigorously enforce the new measures once they go into effect. “The regime and its sponsors must stop the slaughter of innocent people and provide the Syrian people a path toward reconciliation, stability and freedom,” they said in a statement. But critics of the Caesar Act fear that it could make life even harder for Syrian civilians and will likely have knock-on effects for Lebanon’s fragile economy.
Spiraling crisis. While Assad appeared to be emerging victorious from the brutal war and talk had turned to reconstruction, a spiraling economy is now threatening his grip on power. The toll of years of war and corruption has been compounded by the deep economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon, Syria’s main conduit to the outside world. More than half of Syrian citizens struggle with access to food and the value of the Syrian currency has plummeted 70 percent since April.
Under pressure. Anti-Assad protests—rare since he brutally regained control of most of the country—broke out in the southern city of Sweida on Sunday and continued sporadically throughout the week, calling for the president’s resignation. While the crowds were modest, the demonstrations were unusual, as Sweida has remained loyal to the regime. Pockets of protest have broken out elsewhere in the country, including in Daraa—where the 2011 Syrian uprising began.
On Thursday, Assad sacked Prime Minister Imad Khamis, who had held the job since 2016. No formal explanation was given, but the move was widely interpreted by observers as a bid to diffuse growing anger over the economic crisis. Assad may now face his greatest challenge yet, as the grievances that sparked the 2011 uprising not only persist but have been exacerbated in the intervening years by sanctions, war, and corruption, as Charles Lister writes in Politico Magazine.
What We’re Following
Trump sanctions the ICC. The Trump administration announced plans on Thursday to impose economic sanctions and visa bans on officials at the International Criminal Court (ICC) who are investigating allegations of rape and torture against U.S. soldiers who served at CIA interrogation sites in Afghanistan. While U.S. skepticism of the international court in The Hague predates President Donald Trump, it has escalated during his tenure.
Unlike many of its allies, the United States is not a signatory of the Rome Statute that created the court. Afghanistan joined the ICC in 2017, enabling it to bring the case against the U.S. troops. The move puts ICC civil servants in the crosshairs of sanctions usually reserved for despots and war criminals, FP’s Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch report.
Australia examines its record on race. Almost three weeks since the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, activists around the world are calling for renewed attention to racial injustice within their own countries. In Australia, tens of thousands of people took to the streets on Saturday in solidarity with U.S. demonstrations and to protest the treatment of Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders, who were only given full citizenship of Australia in 1967. Since 1991, 434 indigenous people have died in police custody in Australia.
Indigenous people are jailed at a vastly disproportionate rate, accounting for 30 percent of those behind bars despite making up just 3 percent of the population. The Australian government has condemned the protests for going ahead during the coronavirus pandemic, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison calling for police to charge protesters who take to the streets this weekend for breaking restrictions.
Hong Kong crackdown. Hong Kong police are establishing a new unit that will enforce the territory’s controversial new security law announced by China last month with the intent of crushing dissent in the territory. The new police “action arm” will have investigative and intelligence-gathering capabilities, Hong Kong’s security chief, John Lee Ka-chiu told the South China Morning Post in an interview, hinting that the new service would also work in collaboration with police from mainland China. Activists in Hong Kong have long feared the open intrusion of mainland security services, which previously worked illegally in the city to kidnap and threaten dissidents.
Keep an Eye On
Spreading violence in the Sahel. Ten soldiers were killed and six injured in an attack on a military post in the Ivory Coast, near the country’s border with Burkina Faso, on Thursday. It was the deadliest attack in the West African country since 2016. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but experts fear that violence by militant groups aligned with al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the border regions between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger may spread to neighboring countries on the African coast.
Social programs under strain in Nigeria. The collapse in global oil prices and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic are straining Nigeria’s economy, and proposals to dramatically cut funding for primary health care and education have sparked outrage. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the measures in the coming weeks. If passed, they would see spending on local primary health care services cut by more than 40 percent, likely affecting maternity care, immunization programs, and family planning services. Funding for universal basic education would be reduced by over 50 percent.
Foreign Policy Recommends
The ongoing U.S. protests against police brutality are unprecedented in both their size and their diversity. A tectonic shift appears to be underway, as U.S. citizens outside of communities of color come to understand the threat that racial injustice poses not just for their fellow Americans but for the country’s ideals at large, as Theodore R. Johnson, a senior fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice, writes in National Review.
“At a time when political and partisan polarization seem to doom the prospect of good governance, Americans across lines that typically divide us have come together daily, for weeks on end, to compel a change in behavior by the state and its agents, aligning us more closely to our professed principles,” he writes.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-12--Europe Needs to Talk About Race Too

Europe Needs to Talk About Race Too

Europe Needs to Talk About Race Too Widespread protests in Europe in response to the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis have trained an unprecedented spotlight on the relationship between European states and their black populations .
Crowds in countries as varied as Austria , Belgium , Germany , Italy , Spain , the Netherlands , the United Kingdom , Hungary , and the Czech Republic have turned out to condemn racism not only in the United States , but also at home .
But while the European protesters feel solidarity with their counterparts across the Atlantic , they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because the problems they face are distinct .
Every country in Europe has a much smaller black citizenry than the United States , ranging from 3.3 percent of the population in more diverse places such as England and Wales to less than 0.1 percent in virtually homogenous Poland .
The racial power dynamics are thus unambiguous : While European countries all have differing histories and demographics , their minority black populations are all heavily reliant on white majorities for fair treatment in their everyday lives , with often limited avenues for recourse if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result is that when black people in Europe suffer injustices committed by law enforcement , that suffering often occurs in silence with respect to public discourse .
It is no accident that the world is honoring the memory of George Floyd and not Adama Traoré , a black man who died in circumstances similar to George Floyd ’ s while in French police custody in 2016 .
As a black person with the experience of living both in homogenous Poland and diverse U.K. , I have witnessed firsthand how power is exercised toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The similarities are instructive—as are the differences .
In 2010 , Maxwell Itoya , a 36-year-old Nigerian who sold shoes in an open-air market in Warsaw , Poland , was shot dead by a Polish police officer in controversial circumstances .
Despite the fact that Itoya was unarmed and had no criminal record , the officer claimed the Nigerian lunged for his service weapon following a heated verbal exchange , prompting him to shoot in self-defense .
But Nigerian witnesses present told a different story , saying the policeman had shot without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Despite calls by Nigeria ’ s foreign ministry for an inquiry into the “ wanton killing , ” Polish prosecutors decided witness narratives were too “ divergent ” to establish what had really happened , and they let the police officer off scot-free .
This outcome was so odd that even Fakt , a right-wing Polish tabloid not known for its pro-foreigner stance , questioned whether the case would have been similarly dismissed had the victim been white and Polish .
The incident was emblematic of the brutal reality that Poland ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be ignorable by Polish authorities irrespective of any evidence of race-based discrimination .
The current situation is not helped by the fact that since 2015 , Poland has been governed by an overtly nationalist party , Law and Justice , that is openly dismissive of any suggestions that racism is a problem in the country , despite numerous reports of incidents evidencing the contrary .
Well aware of the weakness of their position , as well as the dismissive attitude of authorities toward them , most black victims of racial discrimination in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police , as they don ’ t believe anything will be done about them .
This mirrors a general trend in European Union member states , where 2 in 3 victims of racist violence , including physical attacks by police officers , do not report the incident to anybody , either because they feel it won ’ t change anything or due to fear and mistrust of the police .
The racial dynamics in Britain differ significantly from those in Poland .
Though proportionally a small minority , there are close to 1.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The figure rises to 2.5 million if you add citizens of mixed black and white heritage , many of whom identify significantly with their black roots .
Unlike in Poland , Britain ’ s black population is too large to be ignored by the white power establishment .
The left wing of the British Labour Party , and its influential media affiliates , have especially strong traditions of treating racial discrimination as an important social justice issue .
These are the vehicles through which an otherwise marginal issue tends to enter the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the urgency felt by victims of discrimination—but it also offers insightful nuances .
In 2017 , David Lammy , a black Labour member of Parliament and the opposition party ’ s now-shadow justice secretary , produced a report on how black Britons and other minorities are treated in Britain ’ s justice system .
Though Lammy is generally a vocal critic of racial abuses , his report suggested a complex reality on the ground that defies easy sweeping narratives about racism in Britain .
For instance , while black people are clearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the report suggested the roots of this are varied and include the fact that black people are more than twice as likely to live in poverty than white Britons , as well as the reality that black children are more than twice as likely to grow up in a single-parent family .
Encouragingly , the report noted that “ on average , juries—including all-white juries—do not deliver different results ” for black and other ethnic minority defendants in comparison to white defendants .
A black defendant is no more likely to be convicted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a white defendant .
The report also found British prosecutors to be “ broadly proportionate ” in their prosecution numbers in terms of race .
For every 100 white men charged with a crime , there were 98 black men charged .
On the downside , the report exposed significant flaws in Britain ’ s policing system .
The fact that black people were “ over six times more likely to be stopped ” and searched and “ three times more likely to be arrested than White men ” had a strongly negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ justice system .
“ The police , [ prosecutors ] , the courts , prisons and probation may all be separate institutions , but they form part of a single ‘ system ’ in many people ’ s minds , ” the report noted .
These negative perceptions of the “ system ” are the main reason black defendants are more likely to plead “ not guilty ” in court than white defendants , even though pleading guilty could see their sentences reduced by up to a third .
Many black prisoners who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enter a guilty plea said they had avoided doing so because they did “ not trust the promises made to them by their own solicitors , let alone the officers in a police station warning them to admit guilt.
” Their view of the justice system as a whole was that of a white “ them ” out to get a black “ us , ” the report noted .
That lack of trust toward law enforcement , and the underlying reasons for it , are at the core of the tensions between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percentage of black Britons profess trust in their local police than white Britons : 70 percent compared to 75 percent .
The figure professing trust drops to 61 percent among black youths aged 16 to 24 .
This means 4 in 10 young black Britons do not trust their local police .
For race relations to improve , this trust deficit must be bridged .
While an encouraging 80 percent of black and mixed Britons feel “ they belong ” in Britain compared to 85 percent of whites and Asians , the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to resonate with significant numbers of black Britons suggests the country is still far from racial harmony .
Alarming disparities in the number of black Britons who have died from COVID-19 compared to white Britons raises further suspicions among some that black lives matter less in British society .
The lack of trust in the white establishment among significant numbers of black people in Britain , Poland , and across Europe can sometimes be too instinctual , a response conditioned by knowledge of past humiliations and abuse at the hands of white people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the realities of the current relationship between black and white people in Europe .
It is a relationship with a heavily one-sided power dynamic , which breeds a heightened sense of vulnerability .
The greatest onus of responsibility for bridging Europe ’ s racial trust deficit lies with the dominant white establishment .
But the British example shows that the black community in Europe will be best served by patiently and constructively engaging with those parts of the establishment willing to address its concerns .
The United States , where the black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own nationwide movement , is not a viable model to emulate , yet neither is Poland , where injustices , and anger , fester in silence .

Widespread protests in Europe in response to the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis have trained an unprecedented spotlight on the relationship between European states and their black populations. Crowds in countries as varied as Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have turned out to condemn racism not only in the United States, but also at home. But while the European protesters feel solidarity with their counterparts across the Atlantic, they will have to develop their own solutions, because the problems they face are distinct.
Widespread protests in Europe in response to the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis have trained an unprecedented spotlight on the relationship between European states and their black populations. Crowds in countries as varied as Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have turned out to condemn racism not only in the United States, but also at home. But while the European protesters feel solidarity with their counterparts across the Atlantic, they will have to develop their own solutions, because the problems they face are distinct.
Every country in Europe has a much smaller black citizenry than the United States, ranging from 3.3 percent of the population in more diverse places such as England and Wales to less than 0.1 percent in virtually homogenous Poland. The racial power dynamics are thus unambiguous: While European countries all have differing histories and demographics, their minority black populations are all heavily reliant on white majorities for fair treatment in their everyday lives, with often limited avenues for recourse if that power is abused. The unfortunate result is that when black people in Europe suffer injustices committed by law enforcement, that suffering often occurs in silence with respect to public discourse. It is no accident that the world is honoring the memory of George Floyd and not Adama Traoré, a black man who died in circumstances similar to George Floyd’s while in French police custody in 2016.
As a black person with the experience of living both in homogenous Poland and diverse U.K., I have witnessed firsthand how power is exercised toward black populations in these two European states. The similarities are instructive—as are the differences.
In 2010, Maxwell Itoya, a 36-year-old Nigerian who sold shoes in an open-air market in Warsaw, Poland, was shot dead by a Polish police officer in controversial circumstances. Despite the fact that Itoya was unarmed and had no criminal record, the officer claimed the Nigerian lunged for his service weapon following a heated verbal exchange, prompting him to shoot in self-defense. But Nigerian witnesses present told a different story, saying the policeman had shot without any warning following his exchange with Itoya.
Despite calls by Nigeria’s foreign ministry for an inquiry into the “wanton killing,” Polish prosecutors decided witness narratives were too “divergent” to establish what had really happened, and they let the police officer off scot-free. This outcome was so odd that even Fakt, a right-wing Polish tabloid not known for its pro-foreigner stance, questioned whether the case would have been similarly dismissed had the victim been white and Polish. The incident was emblematic of the brutal reality that Poland’s black population is so small as to be ignorable by Polish authorities irrespective of any evidence of race-based discrimination.
The current situation is not helped by the fact that since 2015, Poland has been governed by an overtly nationalist party, Law and Justice, that is openly dismissive of any suggestions that racism is a problem in the country, despite numerous reports of incidents evidencing the contrary. Well aware of the weakness of their position, as well as the dismissive attitude of authorities toward them, most black victims of racial discrimination in Poland never report their experiences to the police, as they don’t believe anything will be done about them. This mirrors a general trend in European Union member states, where 2 in 3 victims of racist violence, including physical attacks by police officers, do not report the incident to anybody, either because they feel it won’t change anything or due to fear and mistrust of the police.
The racial dynamics in Britain differ significantly from those in Poland. Though proportionally a small minority, there are close to 1.9 million black inhabitants of England and Wales. The figure rises to 2.5 million if you add citizens of mixed black and white heritage, many of whom identify significantly with their black roots. Unlike in Poland, Britain’s black population is too large to be ignored by the white power establishment. The left wing of the British Labour Party, and its influential media affiliates, have especially strong traditions of treating racial discrimination as an important social justice issue. These are the vehicles through which an otherwise marginal issue tends to enter the British mainstream.
The process dampens some of the urgency felt by victims of discrimination—but it also offers insightful nuances. In 2017, David Lammy, a black Labour member of Parliament and the opposition party’s now-shadow justice secretary, produced a report on how black Britons and other minorities are treated in Britain’s justice system. Though Lammy is generally a vocal critic of racial abuses, his report suggested a complex reality on the ground that defies easy sweeping narratives about racism in Britain.
For instance, while black people are clearly overrepresented in Britain’s prisons, the report suggested the roots of this are varied and include the fact that black people are more than twice as likely to live in poverty than white Britons, as well as the reality that black children are more than twice as likely to grow up in a single-parent family. Encouragingly, the report noted that “on average, juries—including all-white juries—do not deliver different results” for black and other ethnic minority defendants in comparison to white defendants. A black defendant is no more likely to be convicted by an all-white jury in Britain than a white defendant. The report also found British prosecutors to be “broadly proportionate” in their prosecution numbers in terms of race. For every 100 white men charged with a crime, there were 98 black men charged.
On the downside, the report exposed significant flaws in Britain’s policing system. The fact that black people were “over six times more likely to be stopped” and searched and “three times more likely to be arrested than White men” had a strongly negative effect on how black Britons viewed their justice system. “The police, [prosecutors], the courts, prisons and probation may all be separate institutions, but they form part of a single ‘system’ in many people’s minds,” the report noted.
These negative perceptions of the “system” are the main reason black defendants are more likely to plead “not guilty” in court than white defendants, even though pleading guilty could see their sentences reduced by up to a third. Many black prisoners who now regret their initial decisions not to enter a guilty plea said they had avoided doing so because they did “not trust the promises made to them by their own solicitors, let alone the officers in a police station warning them to admit guilt.” Their view of the justice system as a whole was that of a white “them” out to get a black “us,” the report noted. That lack of trust toward law enforcement, and the underlying reasons for it, are at the core of the tensions between black and white Britons.
A lower percentage of black Britons profess trust in their local police than white Britons: 70 percent compared to 75 percent. The figure professing trust drops to 61 percent among black youths aged 16 to 24. This means 4 in 10 young black Britons do not trust their local police. For race relations to improve, this trust deficit must be bridged. While an encouraging 80 percent of black and mixed Britons feel “they belong” in Britain compared to 85 percent of whites and Asians, the fact that the Black Lives Matter movement seems to resonate with significant numbers of black Britons suggests the country is still far from racial harmony. Alarming disparities in the number of black Britons who have died from COVID-19 compared to white Britons raises further suspicions among some that black lives matter less in British society.
The lack of trust in the white establishment among significant numbers of black people in Britain, Poland, and across Europe can sometimes be too instinctual, a response conditioned by knowledge of past humiliations and abuse at the hands of white people. But it is also often rooted in the realities of the current relationship between black and white people in Europe. It is a relationship with a heavily one-sided power dynamic, which breeds a heightened sense of vulnerability.
The greatest onus of responsibility for bridging Europe’s racial trust deficit lies with the dominant white establishment. But the British example shows that the black community in Europe will be best served by patiently and constructively engaging with those parts of the establishment willing to address its concerns. The United States, where the black population is sufficiently large to power its own nationwide movement, is not a viable model to emulate, yet neither is Poland, where injustices, and anger, fester in silence.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-12--Malaria May Still Be 2020’s Biggest Killer

Malaria May Still Be 2020 ’ s Biggest Killer Six months into the coronavirus outbreak , children have largely been spared its worst effects .
But the pandemic may well cause hundreds of thousands of children to die this year : not from COVID-19 , but from malaria .
The World Health Organization ( WHO ) warned in April that disruptions to malaria prevention and treatment caused by the coronavirus could see malaria deaths double this year .
The increase alone—estimated at the worst case to be 369,000—would almost equal the current confirmed death toll of COVID-19 .
With peak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries , the window of time in which to avoid disaster is rapidly closing .
Ebola outbreaks provide worrying precedent .
The 2014 outbreak in West Africa wreaked havoc on health systems , affecting not only those suffering from Ebola but also those suffering from such diseases as malaria , HIV , and tuberculosis .
The death toll from other diseases was greater than that of Ebola itself .
In the most recent Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2018 , the most affected province experienced an eightfold increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy that ignores malaria in endemic countries will harm the response to both diseases .
The increase in malaria mortality could prove to be one of the deadliest consequences of the pandemic , with young children , who represent the bulk of malaria casualties , particularly hard-hit .
A surge in malaria will also harm efforts to tackle the coronavirus , placing massive stress on health systems when they can least afford it .
And because both COVID-19 and malaria present with fevers , integrating malaria response is important for correctly identifying COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the perfect storm , ” said Melanie Renshaw of the RBM Partnership to End Malaria .
The storm will hit Africa hardest .
Malaria once ravaged the American South to such an extent that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was headquartered in Atlanta to focus on eradicating the disease , which is now largely restricted to the tropics .
According to WHO , over 90 percent of malaria cases and deaths take place in sub-Saharan Africa .
Children under 5 represent two-thirds of all malaria deaths , with pregnant women forming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water enables the breeding of mosquitos , most malaria transmission takes place during the rainy season .
Many of the most severely malaria-affected countries are in West Africa , where the rains last from roughly May to September .
Insecticide-treated bed nets represent the most widespread form of malaria prevention .
Every three years , malaria-endemic countries conduct mass campaigns to distribute bed nets to their populations , and campaigns were due in 2020 in many countries .
Twenty-seven sub-Saharan African countries representing 85 percent of the region ’ s malaria cases and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for 2020 , according to WHO .
Due to lockdowns and overstretched government resources , distributing the bed nets has become a more difficult task .
While countries such as Benin and Sierra Leone have been able to go forward with their bed net distribution campaigns , others including Nigeria and Ghana have yet to do so .
Renshaw and other experts remain cautiously optimistic that almost all bed net distribution campaigns will go ahead , but the window of time before peak malaria season is rapidly closing .
Additional preventive measures , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , have also been disrupted .
The pandemic poses a number of other challenges .
Health workers and patients alike will initially struggle to know whether a fever indicates COVID-19 or malaria .
When COVID-19 emerged in North Darfur , many of those suffering from the disease were dismissive of the threat , believing they had malaria .
Malaria could also be mistaken for COVID-19 .
Any time a person with malaria arrives at a health center with a fever , health workers may fear the patient could infect them with COVID-19 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ distinguish COVID-19 and malaria without an adequate supply of personal protective equipment and diagnostics .
While disruptions to global supply chains initially limited access to these commodities and antimalarial medications , the key producers India and China have since eased lockdowns , and the situation has mostly returned to normal .
International partners are carefully coordinating shipments to ensure African countries maintain stocks of key commodities .
But second waves of the coronavirus outbreak could well disrupt supply chains again .
U.S. President Donald Trump has touted hydroxychloroquine ’ s efficacy against COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence of its benefits and potentially harmful side effects—which , in turn , led to a huge spike in prescriptions and sales of the critical drug .
Supply chains are further endangered when scientists explore the use of malaria treatments for COVID-19 .
No aspect of malaria has generated more coverage in recent months than the antimalarial drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine .
While chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine were previously used extensively for malaria , the strain of malaria most common in Africa is now largely resistant to the medicines .
However , chloroquine is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the key components in the medicine is used in some antimalarials that are widely used in Africa .
U.S. President Donald Trump has touted hydroxychloroquine ’ s efficacy against COVID-19 and took the medicine himself despite limited evidence of its benefits and potentially harmful side effects—which , in turn , led to a huge spike in prescriptions and sales of the critical drug .
“ Anywhere you ’ re hearing about chloroquine being used for COVID , that has pulled down on the starting materials that can be used for antimalarials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head of access and product management at Medicines for Malaria Venture .
Unconvincing trial results on chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine ’ s efficacy against COVID-19 have finally decreased larger demand for the medicines .
However , other malaria drugs could face similar competition if new treatments or diagnostics for COVID-19 emerge that producers deem more profitable .
Even if African countries maintain adequate supplies of antimalarials and diagnostic tests , malaria deaths could skyrocket if people suffering from malaria can not access them at health facilities .
Few developments would harm access to malaria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which would deplete the supply of health workers and make travel to health centers difficult and dangerous .
African governments responded quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic and thus far have largely avoided mass outbreaks like those in Europe and the United States .
But significant outbreaks have been reported in Tanzania and northern Nigeria , and early indications suggest that people suffering from malaria are staying away from health facilities .
In Ghana , attendance at maternal and child health services has dropped by 50 percent nationwide , according to Fred Binka , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s University of Health and Allied Sciences .
Health workers in Nigeria and Benin also report fewer people coming to health facilities .
This drop in attendance does not suggest that malaria infections have decreased , but rather that fewer people are being treated for the disease .
And because children and pregnant women are the most at-risk groups , decreased attendance could lead to increased deaths as those suffering from malaria do not receive treatment in time .
Due to the difficulty of tracking these deaths , the COVID-19 pandemic ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be known until after malaria season , if ever .
Still , sufficient time remains to prevent the worst-case scenarios .
Governments and international partners have already taken a number of positive steps .
WHO provided guidance on how to adjust malaria programming to account for COVID-19 .
The Global Fund to Fight AIDS , Tuberculosis and Malaria provided additional financing and allowed reprogramming .
Supply chains are gradually stabilizing .
Most importantly , African countries have prevented mass outbreaks of COVID-19 and largely maintained functioning health systems .
While African governments deserve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic , it ’ s critical to ensure malaria remains a top priority .
Given malaria ’ s seasonal nature and the complications it produces for COVID-19 response , it deserves particularly prompt attention from countries in which peak malaria season is approaching .
While governments will need to adapt some existing practices , they can learn from how other governments have responded to the challenges produced by the pandemic .
Benin ’ s use of door-to-door bed net delivery instead of central gathering points provides one important example .
But if they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse than the direct effects of COVID-19 itself .
Governments will also have to ensure those suffering from malaria seek treatment .
The police brutality that some African countries have employed in enforcing lockdowns and quarantines is clearly counterproductive , deterring those who should travel to health facilities .
More broadly , after months of encouraging people to stay at home , governments now have to ensure populations understand that they should quickly seek treatment if they experience signs of malaria .
Governments must communicate these messages widely and provide versions in local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ malaria monitoring need to remain active at the local level .
Governments in malaria-endemic countries must rise to the challenge , but they have been dealt an extraordinarily bad hand .
Niger has to control malaria , fight a pandemic , and provide all the other services any health system needs with $ 29 per person per year .
Of the 20 countries that represent 85 percent of global malaria deaths , 13 spend more money servicing debt than they do on health care .
Debt relief would ensure meager budgets can focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ private creditors have largely refused to even consider suspensions .
Policies that limit access to vital supplies , like the restrictions on U.S. aid funds being used to purchase personal protective equipment , will also have deadly consequences .
In the longer term , donor countries must ensure that the scaling up of funding to respond to COVID-19 does not cut into future malaria funding .
Even before the pandemic , the Lancet warned that an additional $ 2 billion a year is needed to eradicate malaria by 2050 .
While malaria eradication @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much depends on whether this year ultimately represents a bump in the road or a U-turn .
The next month will be critical as governments , civil society , and international partners try to pull off a delicate balancing act to keep both COVID-19 and malaria under control .
If they fall short , hundreds of thousands more parents will be mourning the loss of a child this year .
Many of those children will die at home , with their deaths never recorded .
But the loss will be felt all the @ @

Six months into the coronavirus outbreak, children have largely been spared its worst effects. But the pandemic may well cause hundreds of thousands of children to die this year: not from COVID-19, but from malaria.
Six months into the coronavirus outbreak, children have largely been spared its worst effects. But the pandemic may well cause hundreds of thousands of children to die this year: not from COVID-19, but from malaria.
The World Health Organization (WHO) warned in April that disruptions to malaria prevention and treatment caused by the coronavirus could see malaria deaths double this year. The increase alone—estimated at the worst case to be 369,000—would almost equal the current confirmed death toll of COVID-19. With peak malaria season rapidly approaching in major malaria-endemic countries, the window of time in which to avoid disaster is rapidly closing.
Ebola outbreaks provide worrying precedent. The 2014 outbreak in West Africa wreaked havoc on health systems, affecting not only those suffering from Ebola but also those suffering from such diseases as malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis. The death toll from other diseases was greater than that of Ebola itself. In the most recent Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2018, the most affected province experienced an eightfold increase in malaria incidence.
A coronavirus response strategy that ignores malaria in endemic countries will harm the response to both diseases. The increase in malaria mortality could prove to be one of the deadliest consequences of the pandemic, with young children, who represent the bulk of malaria casualties, particularly hard-hit. A surge in malaria will also harm efforts to tackle the coronavirus, placing massive stress on health systems when they can least afford it. And because both COVID-19 and malaria present with fevers, integrating malaria response is important for correctly identifying COVID-19 cases.
Global efforts to eradicate malaria have made enormous progress in the last two decades. Although the disease still kills 400,000 people each year, over twice as many people died from malaria in 2000 as 2018. Before the coronavirus pandemic, experts saw 2020 as a critical year in sustaining progress against malaria, particularly because the decrease in morbidity and mortality has slowed in recent years. But the COVID-19 pandemic has now raised fears of a return to death tolls unseen for decades.
“It’s like the perfect storm,” said Melanie Renshaw of the RBM Partnership to End Malaria.
The storm will hit Africa hardest. Malaria once ravaged the American South to such an extent that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was headquartered in Atlanta to focus on eradicating the disease, which is now largely restricted to the tropics. According to WHO, over 90 percent of malaria cases and deaths take place in sub-Saharan Africa. Children under 5 represent two-thirds of all malaria deaths, with pregnant women forming another particularly vulnerable demographic.
Because stagnant water enables the breeding of mosquitos, most malaria transmission takes place during the rainy season. Many of the most severely malaria-affected countries are in West Africa, where the rains last from roughly May to September.
Insecticide-treated bed nets represent the most widespread form of malaria prevention. Every three years, malaria-endemic countries conduct mass campaigns to distribute bed nets to their populations, and campaigns were due in 2020 in many countries. Twenty-seven sub-Saharan African countries representing 85 percent of the region’s malaria cases and deaths had bed net distribution campaigns planned for 2020, according to WHO.
Due to lockdowns and overstretched government resources, distributing the bed nets has become a more difficult task. While countries such as Benin and Sierra Leone have been able to go forward with their bed net distribution campaigns, others including Nigeria and Ghana have yet to do so. Renshaw and other experts remain cautiously optimistic that almost all bed net distribution campaigns will go ahead, but the window of time before peak malaria season is rapidly closing. Additional preventive measures, including seasonal chemoprevention and indoor residual spraying, have also been disrupted.
The pandemic poses a number of other challenges. Health workers and patients alike will initially struggle to know whether a fever indicates COVID-19 or malaria. When COVID-19 emerged in North Darfur, many of those suffering from the disease were dismissive of the threat, believing they had malaria. Malaria could also be mistaken for COVID-19. Any time a person with malaria arrives at a health center with a fever, health workers may fear the patient could infect them with COVID-19.
Health workers also find it difficult to distinguish COVID-19 and malaria without an adequate supply of personal protective equipment and diagnostics. While disruptions to global supply chains initially limited access to these commodities and antimalarial medications, the key producers India and China have since eased lockdowns, and the situation has mostly returned to normal. International partners are carefully coordinating shipments to ensure African countries maintain stocks of key commodities. But second waves of the coronavirus outbreak could well disrupt supply chains again.
U.S. President Donald Trump has touted hydroxychloroquine’s efficacy against COVID-19 and took the medicine himself despite limited evidence of its benefits and potentially harmful side effects—which, in turn, led to a huge spike in prescriptions and sales of the critical drug. Supply chains are further endangered when scientists explore the use of malaria treatments for COVID-19. No aspect of malaria has generated more coverage in recent months than the antimalarial drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. While chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine were previously used extensively for malaria, the strain of malaria most common in Africa is now largely resistant to the medicines. However, chloroquine is still used in Latin America, and one of the key components in the medicine is used in some antimalarials that are widely used in Africa. U.S. President Donald Trump has touted hydroxychloroquine’s efficacy against COVID-19 and took the medicine himself despite limited evidence of its benefits and potentially harmful side effects—which, in turn, led to a huge spike in prescriptions and sales of the critical drug.
“Anywhere you’re hearing about chloroquine being used for COVID, that has pulled down on the starting materials that can be used for antimalarials,” said George Jagoe, the head of access and product management at Medicines for Malaria Venture. Unconvincing trial results on chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine’s efficacy against COVID-19 have finally decreased larger demand for the medicines. However, other malaria drugs could face similar competition if new treatments or diagnostics for COVID-19 emerge that producers deem more profitable.
Even if African countries maintain adequate supplies of antimalarials and diagnostic tests, malaria deaths could skyrocket if people suffering from malaria cannot access them at health facilities. Few developments would harm access to malaria treatment more than major COVID-19 outbreaks, which would deplete the supply of health workers and make travel to health centers difficult and dangerous.
African governments responded quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic and thus far have largely avoided mass outbreaks like those in Europe and the United States. But significant outbreaks have been reported in Tanzania and northern Nigeria, and early indications suggest that people suffering from malaria are staying away from health facilities.
In Ghana, attendance at maternal and child health services has dropped by 50 percent nationwide, according to Fred Binka, a professor of clinical epidemiology at Ghana’s University of Health and Allied Sciences. Health workers in Nigeria and Benin also report fewer people coming to health facilities. This drop in attendance does not suggest that malaria infections have decreased, but rather that fewer people are being treated for the disease. And because children and pregnant women are the most at-risk groups, decreased attendance could lead to increased deaths as those suffering from malaria do not receive treatment in time. Due to the difficulty of tracking these deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic’s full effect on malaria will not be known until after malaria season, if ever. Still, sufficient time remains to prevent the worst-case scenarios.
Governments and international partners have already taken a number of positive steps. WHO provided guidance on how to adjust malaria programming to account for COVID-19. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria provided additional financing and allowed reprogramming. Supply chains are gradually stabilizing. Most importantly, African countries have prevented mass outbreaks of COVID-19 and largely maintained functioning health systems.
While African governments deserve credit for their quick response to the pandemic, it’s critical to ensure malaria remains a top priority. Given malaria’s seasonal nature and the complications it produces for COVID-19 response, it deserves particularly prompt attention from countries in which peak malaria season is approaching. While governments will need to adapt some existing practices, they can learn from how other governments have responded to the challenges produced by the pandemic. Benin’s use of door-to-door bed net delivery instead of central gathering points provides one important example. But if they delay, the damage could be even worse than the direct effects of COVID-19 itself.
Governments will also have to ensure those suffering from malaria seek treatment. The police brutality that some African countries have employed in enforcing lockdowns and quarantines is clearly counterproductive, deterring those who should travel to health facilities. More broadly, after months of encouraging people to stay at home, governments now have to ensure populations understand that they should quickly seek treatment if they experience signs of malaria. Governments must communicate these messages widely and provide versions in local languages. Lastly, health facilities and malaria monitoring need to remain active at the local level.
Governments in malaria-endemic countries must rise to the challenge, but they have been dealt an extraordinarily bad hand. Niger has to control malaria, fight a pandemic, and provide all the other services any health system needs with $29 per person per year. Of the 20 countries that represent 85 percent of global malaria deaths, 13 spend more money servicing debt than they do on health care. Debt relief would ensure meager budgets can focus on providing life-saving health care, but private creditors have largely refused to even consider suspensions. Policies that limit access to vital supplies, like the restrictions on U.S. aid funds being used to purchase personal protective equipment, will also have deadly consequences.
In the longer term, donor countries must ensure that the scaling up of funding to respond to COVID-19 does not cut into future malaria funding. Even before the pandemic, the Lancet warned that an additional $2 billion a year is needed to eradicate malaria by 2050.
While malaria eradication remains achievable in the coming decades, much depends on whether this year ultimately represents a bump in the road or a U-turn. The next month will be critical as governments, civil society, and international partners try to pull off a delicate balancing act to keep both COVID-19 and malaria under control. If they fall short, hundreds of thousands more parents will be mourning the loss of a child this year. Many of those children will die at home, with their deaths never recorded. But the loss will be felt all the same.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-12--Trump Rushes to Kill Off Iran Nuclear Deal Before Election

Trump Rushes to Kill Off Iran Nuclear Deal Before Election The battle between the United States and the remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal is heating up , with huge stakes not just for the survival of the near-moribund accord but for the entire future of the U.N. Security Council and its ability to rein in bad actors .
Two years after unilaterally pulling out of the 2015 Iran deal , known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA ) , the Trump administration is dialing up efforts to kill it completely—even though Washington appears to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s nuclear ambitions beyond sanctions .
U.S. officials have been pushing the remaining parties , besides Iran—the European Union , Germany , France , the United Kingdom , Russia , and China—to extend a U.N. arms embargo that otherwise will expire in October , just weeks before a hotly contested U.S. presidential election .
The end of that arms embargo , five years after the nuclear deal went into effect , was one of the selling points of the deal for Iran in the first place .
But now , arguing that Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make it too risky to allow unfettered arms sales to Tehran , Washington is threatening to force the issue and trigger an automatic “ snapback ” of all U.N. sanctions on Iran , placing it in direct confrontation with European allies as well as Russia , China , and Iran , which want to keep the nuclear pact alive .
This week , the major remaining parties have become increasingly vocal in their rejections of U.S. pretensions to still be involved in the JCPOA at all .
On Monday , the Chinese Foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accord the “ root cause ” of the current crisis , while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the United Nations that American efforts to simultaneously leave the deal and try to determine its future are “ ridiculous and irresponsible.
” On Tuesday , the European Union ’ s foreign-policy chief , Josep Borrell , attacked U.S. insistence that , even though it left the 2015 pact , it was still somehow a participant with a voice in its future .
“ They withdraw .
It ’ s clear .
They withdraw , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on Russia and China , both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council , to take steps to block any U.S. efforts to blow up a pact it hasn ’ t been party to for more than two years .
“ This has been brewing for several months , and now all the dirty laundry is coming into the public eye , ” said Ellie Geranmayeh , an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations ( ECFR ) .
Iran has warned that it may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as the 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty , if U.N. sanctions are reimposed , opening a path to the accelerated enrichment of uranium and shutting the door on international inspections of Iran ’ s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ) .
The showdown threatens not just the viability of the Iran nuclear deal , which has been tottering for two years—but which the remaining participants still hope can be salvaged—but also the legitimacy of the U.N. Security Council .
“ For people who oppose the JCPOA and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this is a golden opportunity to kill two birds with one stone , ” said Richard Nephew , who helped craft sanctions during the Obama administration .
“ In the worst-case scenario , the deal is dead , and the U.N. is rendered obsolete and neutered , which isn ’ t a bad thing from their [ the Trump administration ’ s ] perspective , ” added Nephew , now at Columbia University ’ s Center on Global Energy Policy .
For an administration that came into office seeking to contain China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Korea ’ s nuclear programs , the approach seems misguided , said Jonathan Fulton , an expert on China and the Middle East at the Atlantic Council .
“ You can ’ t solve North Korea or Iran without China , and you can ’ t solve North Korea if you blow up the JCPOA , because there ’ s no incentive to cooperate and any deal you make could be shredded , ” he said .
Then there was the yearslong Trump administration trade war with China .
“ It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .
Trump also appears to be making no progress against North Korea ; on Friday , its news agency announced that the relationship between leader Kim Jong Un and Trump was terminated , two years after they first met in Singapore and raised hopes of a deal .
“ Nothing is more hypocritical than an empty promise , ” North Korea ’ s foreign minister , Ri Son Gwon , said in a statement to the state-run Korean Central News Agency .
U.S. brinksmanship over the Iran question threatens to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members could grudgingly concede that the United States , as it contends , has the right to unilaterally force the reimposition of the arms embargo—but that doesn ’ t mean anyone will honor it , least of all Russia and China .
“ I don ’ t see any scenario where Russia and China agree to abide by snapback sanctions , ” Nephew said .
And worse , he suggested , it ’ s unlikely those permanent , veto-wielding members of the Security Council will sign up to any future efforts to use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We are not going to get another sanctions resolution at the U.N. Security Council for a generation , if ever .
If you ’ re never going to get compliance from other states , it will be a choose-your-own-adventure—and nobody will do it , ” Nephew said .
Or , other states could simply refuse to even acknowledge the U.S. claim of a snapback on the embargo , which could lead to a paralyzed United Nations .
“ In no circumstance will there be anything good .
Either you have slow bleeding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” he said .
In the meantime , since the United States pulled out of the accord , Iran has carefully ramped its nuclear activities back up .
It has restricted access to inspectors from the IAEA and reportedly hid past evidence of its nuclear program .
It has shrugged off limits on the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges it can operate and has blown through limits on how big and how enriched its uranium stockpiles are—potentially bringing it closer to a nuclear bomb , the prevention of which was the whole point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But experts say Iran isn ’ t racing for the bomb as much as trying to ramp up pressure on the remaining parties .
“ The steps Iran took to breach the deal are serious and concerning , but they do not pose a near-term risk , ” said Kelsey Davenport , a nonproliferation expert at the Arms Control Association .
“ Iran has breached the deal in a very calibrated , transparent manner—they are creating leverage , not dashing toward a bomb.
” Perhaps anticipating a deadlock , the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negotiations on an arms embargo in New York since February , when it first floated the idea of proposing a resolution extending the arms embargo on Iran beyond its October expiration .
Diplomats say Washington has held some very general discussions about its plans in capitals , but it has held off those plans to table an actual resolution .
Kelly Craft , the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations , said this month that the United States would soon distribute a draft resolution extending the arms embargo , though it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pass it .
That would leave the United States with the option of invoking the automatic “ snapback ” of the embargo on grounds that Iran has failed to meet its obligations—even though the IAEA found that Iran was in compliance until Washington withdrew from the deal .
The immediate point of contention between the United States and the rest of the parties to the pact is whether Washington even has a say in the fate of any aspect of the deal going forward .
That is important because on Oct. 18 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a five-year period as part of the Iran nuclear pact—is set to expire .
The Trump administration insists that it is named as a participant in Resolution 2231 , which endorsed the nuclear accord it no longer recognizes , so it can still play arbiter to a deal it has nothing to do with .
The European Union , China , and Russia—like many experts—reject that idea .
“ The U.S. legal argument is ludicrous .
The United States has said on numerous occasions that it is no longer a part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2231 that support its pressure campaign while refusing to meet U.S. obligations elsewhere , ” Davenport said .
For now , Iran , Russia , China , and European parties to the deal seem to be playing for time , trying to hold the nuclear accord together at least through the November U.S. presidential election .
Russia and other countries are toying with procedural efforts to slow down the U.S. march to the snapback .
If presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins—as recent polls suggest is a possibility—the deal could be resuscitated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s missile programs and regional activities would require Tehran ’ s approval .
But the Trump administration seems determined to employ a scorched-earth policy and ensure that , whatever happens in November , Barack Obama ’ s Iran deal is a cadaver .
“ Iran hawks want to kill any trace of the JCPOA before the term is up , burn down any diplomatic bridges with Iran , ” said Geranmayeh of ECFR .
Others concur that the U.S. effort to invoke U.N. arms sanctions on Iran—against the wishes of all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to demolish any talk of reviving a deal that has been anathema to Republicans for five years .
Trump has occasionally talked of driving the Iranians back to the table for a new deal , but Tehran has refused .
“ This is about smashing the JCPOA and ensuring that any future administration can not put the pieces back together , ” Davenport said .
And she warned that future efforts to curb nuclear proliferation could be endangered if Washington decides to reimpose an arms embargo that helped bring Iran to the nuclear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They are trying to change the goal posts , ” she said .
“ If the United States goes down this road , it would have serious consequences not just for the Iran deal but for nuclear proliferation writ large.
” And the fallout from this fight could have even bigger impacts as the United States still seeks to corral international support to deal with rogue regimes from North Korea to Venezuela .
“ If we are in a situation where there is such a fundamental clash between the United States and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] , they are going to have a much more difficult time pushing through resolutions on areas where the United States may have previously been able to persuade Russia and China to come aboard , ” Geranmayeh said .
“ It could really do irreparable damage to the U.N. Security Council framework .
”

The battle between the United States and the remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal is heating up, with huge stakes not just for the survival of the near-moribund accord but for the entire future of the U.N. Security Council and its ability to rein in bad actors.
The battle between the United States and the remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal is heating up, with huge stakes not just for the survival of the near-moribund accord but for the entire future of the U.N. Security Council and its ability to rein in bad actors.
Two years after unilaterally pulling out of the 2015 Iran deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Trump administration is dialing up efforts to kill it completely—even though Washington appears to have no alternative plan for addressing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions beyond sanctions. U.S. officials have been pushing the remaining parties, besides Iran—the European Union, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China—to extend a U.N. arms embargo that otherwise will expire in October, just weeks before a hotly contested U.S. presidential election. The end of that arms embargo, five years after the nuclear deal went into effect, was one of the selling points of the deal for Iran in the first place.
But now, arguing that Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region make it too risky to allow unfettered arms sales to Tehran, Washington is threatening to force the issue and trigger an automatic “snapback” of all U.N. sanctions on Iran, placing it in direct confrontation with European allies as well as Russia, China, and Iran, which want to keep the nuclear pact alive.
This week, the major remaining parties have become increasingly vocal in their rejections of U.S. pretensions to still be involved in the JCPOA at all. On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called the U.S withdrawal from the accord the “root cause” of the current crisis, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the United Nations that American efforts to simultaneously leave the deal and try to determine its future are “ridiculous and irresponsible.”
On Tuesday, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, Josep Borrell, attacked U.S. insistence that, even though it left the 2015 pact, it was still somehow a participant with a voice in its future. “They withdraw. It’s clear. They withdraw,” Borrell told reporters. On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on Russia and China, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, to take steps to block any U.S. efforts to blow up a pact it hasn’t been party to for more than two years.
“This has been brewing for several months, and now all the dirty laundry is coming into the public eye,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Iran has warned that it may withdraw entirely from the nuclear pact, as well as the 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, if U.N. sanctions are reimposed, opening a path to the accelerated enrichment of uranium and shutting the door on international inspections of Iran’s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The showdown threatens not just the viability of the Iran nuclear deal, which has been tottering for two years—but which the remaining participants still hope can be salvaged—but also the legitimacy of the U.N. Security Council.
“For people who oppose the JCPOA and who don’t like the U.N., this is a golden opportunity to kill two birds with one stone,” said Richard Nephew, who helped craft sanctions during the Obama administration. “In the worst-case scenario, the deal is dead, and the U.N. is rendered obsolete and neutered, which isn’t a bad thing from their [the Trump administration’s] perspective,” added Nephew, now at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
For an administration that came into office seeking to contain China and restrain Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear programs, the approach seems misguided, said Jonathan Fulton, an expert on China and the Middle East at the Atlantic Council.
“You can’t solve North Korea or Iran without China, and you can’t solve North Korea if you blow up the JCPOA, because there’s no incentive to cooperate and any deal you make could be shredded,” he said. Then there was the yearslong Trump administration trade war with China. “It’s getting impossible to cooperate on anything,” he said.
Trump also appears to be making no progress against North Korea; on Friday, its news agency announced that the relationship between leader Kim Jong Un and Trump was terminated, two years after they first met in Singapore and raised hopes of a deal. “Nothing is more hypocritical than an empty promise,” North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Son Gwon, said in a statement to the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
U.S. brinksmanship over the Iran question threatens to bring everything down. U.N. Security Council members could grudgingly concede that the United States, as it contends, has the right to unilaterally force the reimposition of the arms embargo—but that doesn’t mean anyone will honor it, least of all Russia and China.
“I don’t see any scenario where Russia and China agree to abide by snapback sanctions,” Nephew said. And worse, he suggested, it’s unlikely those permanent, veto-wielding members of the Security Council will sign up to any future efforts to use sanctions to rein in rogue states.
“We are not going to get another sanctions resolution at the U.N. Security Council for a generation, if ever. If you’re never going to get compliance from other states, it will be a choose-your-own-adventure—and nobody will do it,” Nephew said. Or, other states could simply refuse to even acknowledge the U.S. claim of a snapback on the embargo, which could lead to a paralyzed United Nations.
“In no circumstance will there be anything good. Either you have slow bleeding or you blow up the whole structure,” he said.
In the meantime, since the United States pulled out of the accord, Iran has carefully ramped its nuclear activities back up. It has restricted access to inspectors from the IAEA and reportedly hid past evidence of its nuclear program. It has shrugged off limits on the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges it can operate and has blown through limits on how big and how enriched its uranium stockpiles are—potentially bringing it closer to a nuclear bomb, the prevention of which was the whole point of the JCPOA in the first place. But experts say Iran isn’t racing for the bomb as much as trying to ramp up pressure on the remaining parties.
“The steps Iran took to breach the deal are serious and concerning, but they do not pose a near-term risk,” said Kelsey Davenport, a nonproliferation expert at the Arms Control Association. “Iran has breached the deal in a very calibrated, transparent manner—they are creating leverage, not dashing toward a bomb.”
Perhaps anticipating a deadlock, the United States has yet to engage in any substantive negotiations on an arms embargo in New York since February, when it first floated the idea of proposing a resolution extending the arms embargo on Iran beyond its October expiration. Diplomats say Washington has held some very general discussions about its plans in capitals, but it has held off those plans to table an actual resolution.
Kelly Craft, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said this month that the United States would soon distribute a draft resolution extending the arms embargo, though it’s doubtful Washington could muster the votes needed to pass it. That would leave the United States with the option of invoking the automatic “snapback” of the embargo on grounds that Iran has failed to meet its obligations—even though the IAEA found that Iran was in compliance until Washington withdrew from the deal.
The immediate point of contention between the United States and the rest of the parties to the pact is whether Washington even has a say in the fate of any aspect of the deal going forward. That is important because on Oct. 18, a U.N. arms embargo—which was extended for a five-year period as part of the Iran nuclear pact—is set to expire. The Trump administration insists that it is named as a participant in Resolution 2231, which endorsed the nuclear accord it no longer recognizes, so it can still play arbiter to a deal it has nothing to do with. The European Union, China, and Russia—like many experts—reject that idea.
“The U.S. legal argument is ludicrous. The United States has said on numerous occasions that it is no longer a part of JCPOA, but it is cherry-picking elements of 2231 that support its pressure campaign while refusing to meet U.S. obligations elsewhere,” Davenport said.
For now, Iran, Russia, China, and European parties to the deal seem to be playing for time, trying to hold the nuclear accord together at least through the November U.S. presidential election. Russia and other countries are toying with procedural efforts to slow down the U.S. march to the snapback. If presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins—as recent polls suggest is a possibility—the deal could be resuscitated, though any additional restrictions on Iran’s missile programs and regional activities would require Tehran’s approval.
But the Trump administration seems determined to employ a scorched-earth policy and ensure that, whatever happens in November, Barack Obama’s Iran deal is a cadaver.
“Iran hawks want to kill any trace of the JCPOA before the term is up, burn down any diplomatic bridges with Iran,” said Geranmayeh of ECFR.
Others concur that the U.S. effort to invoke U.N. arms sanctions on Iran—against the wishes of all the parties to the accord—would be a way to demolish any talk of reviving a deal that has been anathema to Republicans for five years. Trump has occasionally talked of driving the Iranians back to the table for a new deal, but Tehran has refused.
“This is about smashing the JCPOA and ensuring that any future administration cannot put the pieces back together,” Davenport said. And she warned that future efforts to curb nuclear proliferation could be endangered if Washington decides to reimpose an arms embargo that helped bring Iran to the nuclear table in the first place.
“They are trying to change the goal posts,” she said. “If the United States goes down this road, it would have serious consequences not just for the Iran deal but for nuclear proliferation writ large.” And the fallout from this fight could have even bigger impacts as the United States still seeks to corral international support to deal with rogue regimes from North Korea to Venezuela.
“If we are in a situation where there is such a fundamental clash between the United States and other permanent members [of the Security Council], they are going to have a much more difficult time pushing through resolutions on areas where the United States may have previously been able to persuade Russia and China to come aboard,” Geranmayeh said.
“It could really do irreparable damage to the U.N. Security Council framework.”