foreignpolicy--2020-08-12--Biden Picks Harris for Veep—and Bush Sr. for Himself

Biden Picks Harris for Veep—and Bush Sr. for Himself When Barack Obama became president , he had thought a great deal about foreign policy—as he had thought a great deal about many things—but had barely practiced it at all .
That was where his vice president came in handy .
Joe Biden , former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee , had been on a first-name basis with various heads of state since Obama had been taking social studies classes at the Punahou School in Honolulu .
When Obama needed someone to straighten out the mess in Iraq , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be paying a good deal more attention to Tehran than to Washington , he turned to Biden—or so Biden told me at the time—and said , “ Joe , you do Iraq.
” Had Biden chosen Susan Rice as his vice president , one can easily imagine just such an assignment .
The women he did choose , Kamala Harris , brings many strengths—but they do not include the ability to tell Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he ’ s acting like a schmuck and then say “ You know I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden , however , does not need his own Joe Biden .
The closest analogy to Biden , in regard to personal experience , is George H.W .
Bush , who chose as vice president Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana , who no one considered an authority on foreign policy , perhaps not even on the names of foreign capitals .
Bush the Elder was his own chief diplomat .
Only rarely do Americans elect figures with the accomplishment of feeling comfortable in foreign countries .
Though the Founders regarded the position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stone to the presidency , no one has taken that step since James Buchanan .
Should he win , Biden will know the world beyond the United States ’ borders better than any president since Richard Nixon , or perhaps Theodore Roosevelt .
Some presidents regard their ignorance of the foreign world as a patriotic badge of honor .
Andrew Jackson let voters know that he had never been abroad , unlike the cosmopolitan John Quincy Adams—a former ambassador—whom he defeated in 1832 .
The younger George Bush had taken one or two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but was happiest kicking around his Texas ranch .
History offers no more telling an example of the danger of such provincialism .
After 9/11 , Bush underwent a conversion to a kind of magical idealism that left him seeking to remake a world about which he knew almost nothing .
Knowledge might have stayed his hand ; ignorance yoked to dogma made him terribly dangerous .
In recent days I have been talking to Biden ’ s foreign policy advisors for a series that will appear in Foreign Policy in the coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ naturally , talk about Biden ’ s immense fund of personal experience .
Biden doesn ’ t just know the Kurdish leaders—he knows their grandchildren .
He knows their hopes and he knows their political limits .
I am skeptical of this kind of talk , having heard it over the years from Richard Holbrooke and John Kerry and France ’ s Bernard Kouchner .
You can call Netanyahu on his birthday and he ’ ll still authorize the construction of a new settlement .
Biden himself sagely explained to me in Baghdad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ethnic groups “ put their pants on one leg at a time , ” and would be forced by political calculation to make concessions to one another .
That turned out to be a sanguine prediction .
But experience matters in a different way—it educates your intuitions .
Bush the Elder conducted a limited war in the Gulf because he knew how easily grand ambitions could run aground in the region ; his son did the opposite because he didn ’ t know any better .
When Obama ran his agonizingly protracted debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden , almost alone , who told the generals advocating a hugely ambitious counterinsurgency strategy that they were smoking something .
Biden thought the administration shouldn ’ t set itself a task it couldn ’ t achieve .
Obama must wish that he had listened to him .
The practice of foreign policy operates under a Hippocratic imperative : don ’ t make a bad situation worse .
Competent management is the first order of business ; lest that seem a low bar , think how few U.S. presidents over the last 60 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yet presidents also need to navigate the world with a destination in mind ; they need a worldview .
Donald Trump has no such thing—and should he somehow win re-election , he will continue running the country ’ s affairs with both eyes fixed on his personal self-interest .
The great question that Biden will face , should he win , is not , “ How will you glue together what Donald Trump has smashed , ” but rather , “ How must America adapt to a world that looks very different from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” America is wounded today in a way it was not then—in a way that it has not been since before Joe Biden was born .
There is an epic quality to the work that lies ahead .
Is that not the opportunity which any truly ambitious statesman seeks ?

When Barack Obama became U.S. president, he had thought a great deal about foreign policy—as he had thought a great deal about many things—but had barely practiced it at all. That was where his vice president came in handy. Joe Biden, former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, had the chance to be on a first-name basis with various heads of state since Obama had been taking social studies classes at the Punahou School in Honolulu.
When Barack Obama became U.S. president, he had thought a great deal about foreign policy—as he had thought a great deal about many things—but had barely practiced it at all. That was where his vice president came in handy. Joe Biden, former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, had the chance to be on a first-name basis with various heads of state since Obama had been taking social studies classes at the Punahou School in Honolulu.
When Obama needed someone to straighten out the mess in Iraq, whose leader, Nouri al-Maliki, seemed to be paying a good deal more attention to Tehran than to Washington, he turned to Biden—or so Biden told me at the time—and said, “Joe, you do Iraq.”
Had Biden chosen former National Security Advisor Susan Rice as his vice president, one can easily imagine just such an assignment. The woman he did choose, Sen. Kamala Harris, brings many strengths—but they do not include the ability to tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he’s acting like a schmuck and then say “You know I love you” before hanging up.
Joe Biden, however, does not need his own Joe Biden. The closest analogy to Biden, in regard to personal experience, is George H.W. Bush, who chose as vice president Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana, who no one considered an authority on foreign policy, perhaps not even on the names of foreign capitals. Bush was his own chief diplomat.
Only rarely do Americans elect figures who feel comfortable in foreign countries. Though the Founders regarded the position of secretary of state as the stepping stone to the presidency, no one has taken that step since James Buchanan. Should he win, Biden will know the world beyond the United States’ borders better than any president since Richard Nixon, or perhaps Theodore Roosevelt.
Some presidents regard their ignorance of the foreign world as a patriotic badge of honor. Andrew Jackson let voters know that he had never been abroad, unlike the cosmopolitan John Quincy Adams—a former ambassador—whom he defeated in 1828. George W. Bush had taken one or two jaunts with the Young Presidents’ Organization, but he was happiest kicking around his Texas ranch. History offers no more telling an example of the danger of such provincialism.
After 9/11, the younger Bush underwent a conversion to a kind of magical idealism that left him seeking to remake a world about which he knew almost nothing. Knowledge might have stayed his hand; ignorance yoked to dogma made him terribly dangerous.
In recent days I have been talking to Biden’s foreign-policy advisors for a series that will appear in Foreign Policy in the coming weeks. All of them, quite naturally, talk about Biden’s immense fund of personal experience. Biden doesn’t just know the Kurdish leaders—he knows their grandchildren. He knows their hopes and he knows their political limits. I am skeptical of this kind of talk, having heard it over the years from Richard Holbrooke and John Kerry and France’s Bernard Kouchner. You can call Netanyahu on his birthday, and he’ll still authorize the construction of a new settlement. Biden himself sagely explained to me in Baghdad that Maliki and his adversaries in rival ethnic groups “put their pants on one leg at a time,” and would be forced by political calculation to make concessions to one another. That turned out to be a sanguine prediction.
But experience matters in a different way—it educates your intuitions. George H.W. Bush conducted a limited war in the Gulf because he knew how easily grand ambitions could run aground in the region; his son did the opposite because he didn’t know any better. When Obama ran his agonizingly protracted debate over Afghanistan in 2009, it was Biden, almost alone, who told the generals advocating a hugely ambitious counterinsurgency strategy that they were smoking something. Biden thought the administration shouldn’t set itself a task it couldn’t achieve. Obama must wish that he had listened to him.
The practice of foreign policy operates under a Hippocratic imperative: Don’t make a bad situation worse. Competent management is the first order of business; lest that seem a low bar, think how few U.S. presidents over the last 60 years or so have cleared it. Yet presidents also need to navigate the world with a destination in mind; they need a worldview. Trump has no such thing—and should he somehow win reelection, he will continue running the country’s affairs with both eyes fixed on his personal self-interest.
The great question that Biden will face, should he win, is not, “How will you glue together what Donald Trump has smashed,” but rather, “How must America adapt to a world that looks very different from the one you left in 2016?” America is wounded today in a way it was not then—in a way that it has not been since before Joe Biden was born. There is an epic quality to the work that lies ahead. Is that not the opportunity that any truly ambitious statesman seeks?
Correction, Aug. 12, 2020: Andrew Jackson defeated President John Quincy Adams in the 1828 election. A previous version of this article misstated the election year.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-12--Biden Chooses Kamala Harris as His Running Mate

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Joe Biden selects California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate , Aleksandr Lukashenko ’ s main opposition challenger flees Belarus amid crackdown , and New Zealand imposes a partial lockdown after reporting its first cases of coronavirus in months .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden announced on Twitter that he has chosen California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate , ending months of speculation and setting the stage for his electoral battle with President Donald Trump in November .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden called Harris “ a fearless fighter for the little guy , and one of the country ’ s finest public servants.
” To explain Biden ’ s choice and what it could mean for his foreign policy , Foreign Policy ’ s Kelly Kimball rounded up our top election coverage .
Biden ’ s campaign said in June that he intended to pick a woman of color as his running mate , partly as a way of appealing to the Democratic Party ’ s left wing .
Pressure to select a Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police killing of George Floyd in May and the nationwide protests that followed .
Reports in recent weeks said the choice had come down to Harris and former National Security Advisor Susan Rice , but Biden ’ s decision to go with Harris is seen as a reflection of the salience of domestic issues in this election cycle .
Historic choice .
The daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India and a former 2020 presidential candidate herself , Harris will be both the first Black woman and first Asian-American to run on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ No woman has ever served as U.S. vice president .
She tweeted shortly after the announcement , saying “ I ’ m honored to join [ Biden ] as our party ’ s nominee for Vice President , and do what it takes to make him our Commander-in-Chief.
” Keys to the palace .
Biden ’ s choice for running mate garnered intense speculation in part because of the belief that the 77-year old would only seek one term as president .
Biden himself reportedly signaled to aides in December that he would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the way for his running mate to become the Democratic Party ’ s nominee in 2024 , should Biden win in November .
Sources told CNN that Harris was chosen in part because she was considered the best qualified to serve as president on her first day , a nod to the possibility that she could eventually take over for Biden .
A domestic veep .
After the announcement , Foreign Policy ’ s Michael Hirsh wrote that Biden will put his focus on foreign policy , looking to undo the damage Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s alliances abroad , meaning he is likely to give Harris an enlarged domestic portfolio .
The next administration ’ s domestic agenda is expected to focus on tackling the controversial issue of police reform and mending race relations ; Harris ’ s background as a Black woman and experience as a prosecutor make her well-placed to handle those tasks .
On foreign policy .
Harris has very little foreign-policy experience , but she challenged China on its human rights record and unfair trade practices during her own presidential campaign , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top geopolitical challenges , as Foreign Policy ’ s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer write .
Opposition figure flees Belarus .
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya , Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko ’ s main challenger in last weekend ’ s presidential election , has fled to Lithuania amid widespread crackdowns on anti-government protests and opposition figures .
Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Minsk and other cities after an official exit poll declared Lukashenko the winner in a landslide , despite facing his stiffest opposition in his entire 26-year presidency .
Tikhanovskaya rejected the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of rigging the election .
She demanded that Lukashenko step down .
“ I consider myself the winner of this election , ” she said .
But after reaching Lithuania and contacting her campaign , Tikhanovskaya recorded a video urging protests to stop and saying that “ the nation has made its choice , ” reversing her earlier rejection of the results .
The sudden about-face caused many to speculate that Tikhanovskaya had been threatened by individuals loyal to Lukashenko .
Russia ’ s dubious vaccine claims .
On Tuesday , Russian President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regulatory approval to the world ’ s first COVID-19 vaccine after only two months of testing , sparking widespread international skepticism .
Developed by Moscow ’ s Gamaleya Institute , Russia ’ s health ministry claimed that the vaccine provides COVID-19 immunity for up to two years , and Putin himself said it was successfully administered to one of his daughters .
The vaccine , however , has yet to fully complete testing trials , leading health experts to call the certification premature and inappropriate .
Hong Kong ’ s legislature to stay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decided to extend the term of Hong Kong ’ s governing Legislative Council , which was due to end in September , for one year , citing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic .
The move follows a decision in July by pro-Beijing Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam to postpone local elections originally scheduled for Sep. 6 .
Pro-democracy legislators have criticized the decision , claiming that the rationale for the extension is bogus and is simply a pretext to curb growing anti-Beijing sentiment in the country .
“ Around 4.5 million voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deprived .
The legislative council … will no longer be authorised by the people , ” they said in a statement .
New Zealand locks down .
New Zealand reported four new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday , breaking a 102-day streak without a single locally-transmitted case , prompting Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to put the capital of Auckland on lockdown .
Residents will be asked to stay home , large gatherings will be banned , non-essential businesses will close , and some social-distancing measures will be reintroduced to the rest of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go into effect today .
The New Zealand government had been widely praised for its quick and effective response to the pandemic , and a recently published report by FP Analytics gave New Zealand the top rating out of all 36 countries it assessed .
Tuesday ’ s quick decision mirrors the response initially taken by the government in March , and officials are optimistic they will see similar results .
Guns are still blazing in South Sudan .
South Sudanese security forces launched a deadly operation into the state of Warrap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seize weapons from communities still armed from the country ’ s recent civil war .
The operation left at least 81 people dead and dozens more injured , authorities and civil society organizations said on Tuesday .
The dead included 55 security force personnel and 26 civilians in separate attacks .
The government of South Sudan has been struggling to stabilize the country since the end of a vicious civil war in February .
President Salva Kiir recently announced a campaign to disarm nonstate actors , but advocacy groups warned that this effort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provoking a strong reaction from armed communities , ultimately rendering the campaign ineffective and counterproductive .
Mauritians are building makeshift devices using their hair to help clean up a massive oil spill near the island nation that is threatening one of the world ’ s most ecologically diverse underwater regions .
The MV Wakashio , a Japanese ship , ran aground on a coral reef near Mauritius on July 25 , leaking an estimated 1,000 of its 4,000 ton oil cargo into the surrounding waters .
French and Japanese authorities rushed to provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on hold after heavy winds hit the area .
Residents were quick to respond , building oil containment booms out of hair , sugar cane leaves , and plastic bottles to soak up the oil .
Romina Tello of Mauritius Conscious , an eco-tourism company , told reporters that human hair was chosen because it can soak up oil without absorbing water .
To that end , activists launched a massive campaign to collect human hair to assist cleanup efforts .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Joe Biden selects California Sen. Kamala Har ris as his running mate , Aleksandr Lukashenko’s main opposition challenger flees Belarus amid crackdown , and New Zealand imposes a partial lockdown after reporting its first cases of coronavirus in months.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Joe Biden selects California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, Aleksandr Lukashenko’s main opposition challenger flees Belarus amid crackdown, and New Zealand imposes a partial lockdown after reporting its first cases of coronavirus in months.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Biden Picks Harris as VP Nominee
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden announced on Twitter that he has chosen California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, ending months of speculation and setting the stage for his electoral battle with President Donald Trump in November. In his tweet announcing the decision, Biden called Harris “a fearless fighter for the little guy, and one of the country’s finest public servants.” To explain Biden’s choice and what it could mean for his foreign policy, Foreign Policy’s Kelly Kimball rounded up our top election coverage.
Biden’s campaign said in June that he intended to pick a woman of color as his running mate, partly as a way of appealing to the Democratic Party’s left wing. Pressure to select a Black woman was given added impetus after the police killing of George Floyd in May and the nationwide protests that followed. Reports in recent weeks said the choice had come down to Harris and former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, but Biden’s decision to go with Harris is seen as a reflection of the salience of domestic issues in this election cycle.
Historic choice. The daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India and a former 2020 presidential candidate herself, Harris will be both the first Black woman and first Asian-American to run on a major party ticket in U.S. history. No woman has ever served as U.S. vice president. She tweeted shortly after the announcement, saying “I’m honored to join [Biden] as our party’s nominee for Vice President, and do what it takes to make him our Commander-in-Chief.”
Keys to the palace. Biden’s choice for running mate garnered intense speculation in part because of the belief that the 77-year old would only seek one term as president. Biden himself reportedly signaled to aides in December that he would only serve a single term, opening the way for his running mate to become the Democratic Party’s nominee in 2024, should Biden win in November. Sources told CNN that Harris was chosen in part because she was considered the best qualified to serve as president on her first day, a nod to the possibility that she could eventually take over for Biden.
A domestic veep. After the announcement, Foreign Policy’s Michael Hirsh wrote that Biden will put his focus on foreign policy, looking to undo the damage Trump has done to international institutions and America’s alliances abroad, meaning he is likely to give Harris an enlarged domestic portfolio. The next administration’s domestic agenda is expected to focus on tackling the controversial issue of police reform and mending race relations; Harris’s background as a Black woman and experience as a prosecutor make her well-placed to handle those tasks.
On foreign policy. Harris has very little foreign-policy experience, but she challenged China on its human rights record and unfair trade practices during her own presidential campaign, and called Russia one of Washington’s top geopolitical challenges, as Foreign Policy’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer write.
What We’re Following Today
Opposition figure flees Belarus. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s main challenger in last weekend’s presidential election, has fled to Lithuania amid widespread crackdowns on anti-government protests and opposition figures. Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Minsk and other cities after an official exit poll declared Lukashenko the winner in a landslide, despite facing his stiffest opposition in his entire 26-year presidency.
Tikhanovskaya rejected the legitimacy of the result, accusing authorities of rigging the election. She demanded that Lukashenko step down. “I consider myself the winner of this election,” she said. But after reaching Lithuania and contacting her campaign, Tikhanovskaya recorded a video urging protests to stop and saying that “the nation has made its choice,” reversing her earlier rejection of the results. The sudden about-face caused many to speculate that Tikhanovskaya had been threatened by individuals loyal to Lukashenko.
Russia’s dubious vaccine claims. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has given regulatory approval to the world’s first COVID-19 vaccine after only two months of testing, sparking widespread international skepticism. Developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute, Russia’s health ministry claimed that the vaccine provides COVID-19 immunity for up to two years, and Putin himself said it was successfully administered to one of his daughters. The vaccine, however, has yet to fully complete testing trials, leading health experts to call the certification premature and inappropriate.
Hong Kong’s legislature to stay in power. The Chinese government has decided to extend the term of Hong Kong’s governing Legislative Council, which was due to end in September, for one year, citing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic. The move follows a decision in July by pro-Beijing Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam to postpone local elections originally scheduled for Sep. 6.
Pro-democracy legislators have criticized the decision, claiming that the rationale for the extension is bogus and is simply a pretext to curb growing anti-Beijing sentiment in the country. “Around 4.5 million voters’ rights to vote regularly have been deprived. The legislative council … will no longer be authorised by the people,” they said in a statement.
Keep an Eye On
New Zealand locks down. New Zealand reported four new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, breaking a 102-day streak without a single locally-transmitted case, prompting Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to put the capital of Auckland on lockdown. Residents will be asked to stay home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will close, and some social-distancing measures will be reintroduced to the rest of the country. The new measures are due to go into effect today.
The New Zealand government had been widely praised for its quick and effective response to the pandemic, and a recently published report by FP Analytics gave New Zealand the top rating out of all 36 countries it assessed. Tuesday’s quick decision mirrors the response initially taken by the government in March, and officials are optimistic they will see similar results.
Guns are still blazing in South Sudan. South Sudanese security forces launched a deadly operation into the state of Warrap over the weekend in an effort to seize weapons from communities still armed from the country’s recent civil war. The operation left at least 81 people dead and dozens more injured, authorities and civil society organizations said on Tuesday. The dead included 55 security force personnel and 26 civilians in separate attacks.
The government of South Sudan has been struggling to stabilize the country since the end of a vicious civil war in February. President Salva Kiir recently announced a campaign to disarm nonstate actors, but advocacy groups warned that this effort was too “hasty” and risked provoking a strong reaction from armed communities, ultimately rendering the campaign ineffective and counterproductive.
Odds and Ends
Mauritians are building makeshift devices using their hair to help clean up a massive oil spill near the island nation that is threatening one of the world’s most ecologically diverse underwater regions. The MV Wakashio, a Japanese ship, ran aground on a coral reef near Mauritius on July 25, leaking an estimated 1,000 of its 4,000 ton oil cargo into the surrounding waters. French and Japanese authorities rushed to provide assistance, but cleanup efforts were put on hold after heavy winds hit the area.
Residents were quick to respond, building oil containment booms out of hair, sugar cane leaves, and plastic bottles to soak up the oil. Romina Tello of Mauritius Conscious, an eco-tourism company, told reporters that human hair was chosen because it can soak up oil without absorbing water. To that end, activists launched a massive campaign to collect human hair to assist cleanup efforts.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-12--Why China Arrested Hong Kong Tycoon Jimmy Lai

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s China Brief .
The highlights this week : Why the Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai was targeted under the new national security law , floods in Southern China raise concerns over food security , and how the WeChat ban could affect U.S. firms in China .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
The Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai—who heads Next Digital , a pro-democracy media empire mostly known for its newspaper Apple Daily—was arrested in a public spectacle on Monday for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security law .
Several other reporters , activists , and politicians were also arrested the same day , including the popular activist Agnes Chow .
They have all been released on bail , but it is unclear whether they will be tried in Hong Kong or in the mainland courts being established for national security cases .
Lai is a rare bird among the Hong Kong elite , who mostly made their peace with the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) as the 1997 handover approached and have generally supported Beijing enthusiastically .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mainland and use their money to promote CCP influence worldwide .
The Hong Kong media , in particular , is dominated by pro-party figures .
Showing support .
The recent arrests are part of a series of blows against Hong Kong democracy and civil society under the new law .
While growing fears of arrest have restricted street protests , but Hong Kongers showed their support for Lai by buying Next Digital shares en masse , increasing prices by 1,000 percent .
Daily newspaper sales of Apple Daily skyrocketed from 70,000 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worth around $ 1.2 billion .
One of the major tests of whether any semblance of rule of law remains in Hong Kong will be whether his business empire is carved up among CCP cronies if he is convicted .
Dividing the assets of the rich after they fall is a common practice on the mainland , and the Hong Kong elite are already showing signs that they fear widespread official pillage : A significant amount of the territory ’ s gold was moved following passage of the law .
Flooding causes food @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are still causing devastating floods , which have left at least 3.7 million people homeless .
The rising waters have hit farmers particularly hard , wiping out entire harvests in the rice-growing south and driving grain prices up by around 20 to 30 percent .
Further heavy rains are expected .
President Xi Jinping has responded by calling on Chinese not to “ waste food ” to protect the country ’ s hard-won food security , renewing the 2013 “ Clean Plate ” campaign .
Anecdotally , many Chinese households have been stockpiling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fears of further coronavirus pandemic lockdowns , floods , and possible conflict with the United States .
Xi himself will not go hungry : Party officials are supplied with food through a special system established to make sure banquet tables were full even during times of Maoist famine .
Today it provides higher-quality organic goods to avoid the risks of China ’ s food chain .
Packing woes .
The latest casualty of spiraling U.S.-China relations is furniture , according to a Global Times exclusive that revealed that the United States had “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of furniture ( official supplies ) ordered by the Chinese delegation to the United Nations and dismantled the wrappings of 12 pieces.
” The story is ridiculous , but its front-page placement is a sign of how far paranoia about U.S. actions is spreading in China .
The Global Times has promoted other anti-foreign campaigns , such as complaints about Balenciaga ads and theories that U.S. logo changes are a sign of support for Taiwan .
The focus on often imagined symbolism is reminiscent of Maoist-era politics .
Trump doubles down .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attempted to paint his Democratic opponent Joe Biden as weak on China , saying in an interview that , “ If I don ’ t win the election , China will own the United States .
… You ’ re gon na have to learn to speak Chinese.
” The comments follow a line of attack that has largely proved ineffective for Trump .
While both Democrats and Republicans have record negative views of China , it is not a political priority for voters .
WeChat and TikTok bans .
The Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the global internet with executive orders issued last Thursday banning U.S. transactions with TikTok , the popular video-sharing app , and WeChat , the ubiquitous Chinese app .
TikTok seems likely to be sold to Microsoft and is easy to sever from the Chinese ecosystem .
The WeChat ban is more significant , given how powerful the app is inside China .
One under-covered aspect of the WeChat ban is how it will affect U.S. firms in China .
WeChat is a huge advertising platform , especially through sponsored messages .
U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would be a considerable burden to their China business , akin to being deprived of TV advertising .
But the executive orders are vaguely worded , and it isn ’ t yet apparent whether the administration would attempt to enforce restrictions on business inside China .
China first .
A major economic initiative known as “ domestic circulation , ” laid out by Xi this year and first reported by the Wall Street Journal , concentrates on prioritizing the Chinese domestic economy and de-emphasizing foreign investment and exports to reduce dependence on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being implemented by the generally pro-market Vice Premier Liu He—still envisages a strong role for the outside world , it could play into the hands of U.S. strategists keen to decouple the Chinese and U.S. economies .
Despite the outside fascination with China ’ s planning , the actual course of its growth in recent decades has often been improvised and unexpected .
But Xi-era government intervention has inevitably resulted in the growth of the state sector .
The role of state-owned enterprises , especially the energy and resource giants , has expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often sees Chinese decision-makers favoring existing power structures .
CCP kids are Hong Kong millionaires .
A New York Times investigation reveals that the family of three top CCP officials have luxury homes in Hong Kong worth a total of more than $ 51 million .
The CCP elite ’ s wealth tends to be spread among their relatives , from Xi ’ s siblings to former Premier Wen Jiabao ’ s wife .
After previous reports on relatives ’ wealth , they have taken greater steps to conceal it , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this kind even harder .
The ChinaPower Podcast from the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) The CSIS ChinaPower podcast is always worth listening to , but particularly this week ’ s episode .
The border and military expert M. Taylor Fravel dissects the Galwan Valley clash with India , which killed several dozen Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese , and uses the incident to examine how China approaches territorial disputes .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: Why the Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai was targeted under the new national security law, floods in Southern China raise concerns over food security, and how the WeChat ban could affect U.S. firms in China.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: Why the Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai was targeted under the new national security law, floods in Southern China raise concerns over food security, and how the WeChat ban could affect U.S. firms in China.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
Jimmy Lai’s Arrest Sends a Message From Beijing
The Hong Kong billionaire Jimmy Lai—who heads Next Digital, a pro-democracy media empire mostly known for its newspaper Apple Daily—was arrested in a public spectacle on Monday for allegedly violating China’s new national security law. Several other reporters, activists, and politicians were also arrested the same day, including the popular activist Agnes Chow. They have all been released on bail, but it is unclear whether they will be tried in Hong Kong or in the mainland courts being established for national security cases.
Lai is a rare bird among the Hong Kong elite, who mostly made their peace with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as the 1997 handover approached and have generally supported Beijing enthusiastically. Many are members of political bodies in the mainland and use their money to promote CCP influence worldwide. The Hong Kong media, in particular, is dominated by pro-party figures.
Showing support. The recent arrests are part of a series of blows against Hong Kong democracy and civil society under the new law. While growing fears of arrest have restricted street protests, but Hong Kongers showed their support for Lai by buying Next Digital shares en masse, increasing prices by 1,000 percent. Daily newspaper sales of Apple Daily skyrocketed from 70,000 to 550,000.
Asset pillage. Lai is worth around $1.2 billion. One of the major tests of whether any semblance of rule of law remains in Hong Kong will be whether his business empire is carved up among CCP cronies if he is convicted. Dividing the assets of the rich after they fall is a common practice on the mainland, and the Hong Kong elite are already showing signs that they fear widespread official pillage: A significant amount of the territory’s gold was moved following passage of the law.
What We’re Following
Flooding causes food worries. Massive rains in southern China are still causing devastating floods, which have left at least 3.7 million people homeless. The rising waters have hit farmers particularly hard, wiping out entire harvests in the rice-growing south and driving grain prices up by around 20 to 30 percent. Further heavy rains are expected. President Xi Jinping has responded by calling on Chinese not to “waste food” to protect the country’s hard-won food security, renewing the 2013 “Clean Plate” campaign.
Anecdotally, many Chinese households have been stockpiling in the last few weeks out of fears of further coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, floods, and possible conflict with the United States. Xi himself will not go hungry: Party officials are supplied with food through a special system established to make sure banquet tables were full even during times of Maoist famine. Today it provides higher-quality organic goods to avoid the risks of China’s food chain.
Packing woes. The latest casualty of spiraling U.S.-China relations is furniture, according to a Global Times exclusive that revealed that the United States had “brutally unpacked a container with 60 pieces of furniture (official supplies) ordered by the Chinese delegation to the United Nations and dismantled the wrappings of 12 pieces.” The story is ridiculous, but its front-page placement is a sign of how far paranoia about U.S. actions is spreading in China.
The Global Times has promoted other anti-foreign campaigns, such as complaints about Balenciaga ads and theories that U.S. logo changes are a sign of support for Taiwan. The focus on often imagined symbolism is reminiscent of Maoist-era politics.
Trump doubles down. This week, U.S. President Donald Trump again attempted to paint his Democratic opponent Joe Biden as weak on China, saying in an interview that, “If I don’t win the election, China will own the United States. … You’re gonna have to learn to speak Chinese.” The comments follow a line of attack that has largely proved ineffective for Trump. While both Democrats and Republicans have record negative views of China, it is not a political priority for voters.
Tech and Business
WeChat and TikTok bans. The Trump administration marked a major step in the splintering of the global internet with executive orders issued last Thursday banning U.S. transactions with TikTok, the popular video-sharing app, and WeChat, the ubiquitous Chinese app. TikTok seems likely to be sold to Microsoft and is easy to sever from the Chinese ecosystem. The WeChat ban is more significant, given how powerful the app is inside China.
One under-covered aspect of the WeChat ban is how it will affect U.S. firms in China. WeChat is a huge advertising platform, especially through sponsored messages. U.S. firms being banned from placing ads on it would be a considerable burden to their China business, akin to being deprived of TV advertising. But the executive orders are vaguely worded, and it isn’t yet apparent whether the administration would attempt to enforce restrictions on business inside China.
China first. A major economic initiative known as “domestic circulation,” laid out by Xi this year and first reported by the Wall Street Journal, concentrates on prioritizing the Chinese domestic economy and de-emphasizing foreign investment and exports to reduce dependence on non-Chinese markets. While the strategy—which is being implemented by the generally pro-market Vice Premier Liu He—still envisages a strong role for the outside world, it could play into the hands of U.S. strategists keen to decouple the Chinese and U.S. economies.
Despite the outside fascination with China’s planning, the actual course of its growth in recent decades has often been improvised and unexpected. But Xi-era government intervention has inevitably resulted in the growth of the state sector. The role of state-owned enterprises, especially the energy and resource giants, has expanded even further under Xi. Political-economic uncertainty often sees Chinese decision-makers favoring existing power structures.
CCP kids are Hong Kong millionaires. A New York Times investigation reveals that the family of three top CCP officials have luxury homes in Hong Kong worth a total of more than $51 million. The CCP elite’s wealth tends to be spread among their relatives, from Xi’s siblings to former Premier Wen Jiabao’s wife. After previous reports on relatives’ wealth, they have taken greater steps to conceal it, such as removing family names from key documents—making reporting of this kind even harder.
What We’re Listening To
The ChinaPower Podcast from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
The CSIS ChinaPower podcast is always worth listening to, but particularly this week’s episode. The border and military expert M. Taylor Fravel dissects the Galwan Valley clash with India, which killed several dozen Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese, and uses the incident to examine how China approaches territorial disputes.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-12--The U.S. Was Set to Send an Ambassador to Belarus. Then Came the Crackdown.

The U.S. Was Set to Send an Ambassador to Belarus .
Then Came the Crackdown .
After more than a decade of diplomatic cold shoulder , the United States was poised to send a U.S. ambassador to Belarus .
Now , though , amid Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko ’ s violent crackdown on protests following a rigged election , some Democratic lawmakers are getting cold feet , just as the ambassador goes through the Senate confirmation process , worried that sending an envoy could be seen as a reward to Lukashenko at the worst possible time .
Others on Capitol @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Democrats , believe the United States needs to install a senior diplomat in Minsk to advance U.S. interests and help roll back Russian and Chinese influence in a country often called “ Europe ’ s last dictatorship.
” They also believe a U.S. ambassador could help empower Belarusian civil society hungry for democratic reforms to push back against the government ’ s crackdown on opposition leaders and dissidents .
The debate on Capitol Hill drives at an existential question in the world of American diplomacy : Is it better to engage with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rival powers ’ influence , or does that risk undermining U.S. values in supporting democracy and human rights ?
One leading lawmaker , Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy , said he is prepared to block the confirmation to send a signal to Lukashenko in the midst of a crackdown that has seen some 6,000 people arrested and at least two people killed .
The proposed envoy is Julie Fisher , a seasoned career diplomat with an extensive background in European affairs .
“ Sending an ambassador to Minsk now , for the first time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the United States condones these actions , and I am prepared to oppose the nomination in the Foreign Relations Committee unless it is withdrawn by the President , ” said Murphy , a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee , in a statement .
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen , another Democrat on the committee , expressed similar sentiments in a tweet on Tuesday , after a Belarus-born political consultant , Vitaly Shklyarov , was charged in Belarus last week for allegedly organizing an unsanctioned political rally ; he could face up to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a highly authoritarian state , has been rocked by unprecedented protests since Sunday after highly dubious elections handed Lukashenko a sixth term .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the elections as “ not free and fair.
” But other congressional aides and diplomats said sending a U.S. envoy to Belarus is critical to both pushing back against the Lukashenko regime ’ s abuses—and forestalling even more influence there from rivals like Russia and China .
“ Keeping [ Belarus ] out of the Chinese orbit and helping them pull away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight , ” said one Republican congressional aide .
“ If you ’ re going to have this fight , you ’ re going to need to put a heavy hitter on the ground in Minsk.
” “ I don ’ t think that American Ambassadors should be considered rewards for good behavior—quite the opposite .
We need strong ambassadors in countries with terrible human rights records to stand alongside opposition democratic actors and tell dictators what we think of them , ” said a Democratic congressional aide .
“ Ambassadors are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a reward , ” the aide added .
Several U.S. diplomats who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity echoed that sentiment , even as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers Fisher ’ s nomination .
U.S. officials “ don ’ t want to cede more space for Russia , ” one diplomat said .
“ What do we gain by not sending her ?
” Even without the potential block from Murphy , it could take months before Fisher arrives in Minsk , congressional aides said , given procedural hang-ups in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushed back routine business meetings and floor votes .
Belarus has long been a close ally of Russia , but Moscow ’ s invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 prompted Lukashenko to rethink his dependence on Russia , and he began to make increasing overtures to both the West and China .
In 2015 , the United States gave Belarus some relief from sanctions after Lukashenko freed the country ’ s remaining political prisoners and held a peaceful , if not fair , presidential election .
That paved the way for a thaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in January of last year , with Belarus ending a long-standing cap on the number of American diplomats allowed in the country .
While the rapprochement was initially intended as a way to cajole Lukashenko to improve the country ’ s abysmal human rights record , human rights soon took a back seat to growing concerns about increasing Russian assertiveness in the region .
Last year , then-National Security Advisor John Bolton visited the country , at the time the highest-level U.S. trip to Minsk in decades .
“ [ D ] espite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I wanted to prove the US would not simply watch Belarus be reabsorbed by Russia , which [ Russian President Vladimir ] Putin seemed to be seriously considering , ” Bolton later wrote in his memoir .
But sending a U.S. envoy there now , some say , would amount to a pat on the back for doing very little .
“ There haven ’ t been a lot of developments on the human rights front over the past three years , but the Belarusians have got almost everything they wanted , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worked on European issues , adding that , in Minsk , the dispatch of a U.S. ambassador to Belarus for the first time in over a decade would be “ explicitly ” seen as a reward .
“ Perhaps it ’ s no surprise that there ’ s not a lot of fear in Minsk of what steps the EU and Russia will take , ” the former official added .
The last U.S. ambassador to Belarus was expelled in 2008 , when Washington imposed sanctions on Minsk over mounting human rights concerns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there now , it will be a blessing of the crimes that Lukashenko is perpetrating , ” said Andrei Sannikov , who was the deputy foreign minister of Belarus before resigning in protest in 1996 .
Pompeo had a chance to take Lukashenko to task on Wednesday , when he gave a major speech on “ Securing Freedom in the Heart of Europe ” while on a visit to the Czech Republic .
He didn ’ t mention Belarus once .
But he sought to remedy that in an interview with Czech television @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go on that was not free , that was not fair , and now we ’ ve seen them take actions against peaceful protesters that concern us all greatly , ” he said .
“ I think Europe , I think the United States all need to figure out how to confront this in a way that delivers a good outcome for the people of Belarus .
”

After more than a decade of diplomatic cold shoulder, the United States was poised to send a U.S. ambassador to Belarus. Now, though, amid Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s violent crackdown on protests following a rigged election, some Democratic lawmakers are getting cold feet, just as the ambassador goes through the Senate confirmation process, worried that sending an envoy could be seen as a reward to Lukashenko at the worst possible time.
After more than a decade of diplomatic cold shoulder, the United States was poised to send a U.S. ambassador to Belarus. Now, though, amid Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s violent crackdown on protests following a rigged election, some Democratic lawmakers are getting cold feet, just as the ambassador goes through the Senate confirmation process, worried that sending an envoy could be seen as a reward to Lukashenko at the worst possible time.
Others on Capitol Hill, however, including both Republicans and Democrats, believe the United States needs to install a senior diplomat in Minsk to advance U.S. interests and help roll back Russian and Chinese influence in a country often called “Europe’s last dictatorship.” They also believe a U.S. ambassador could help empower Belarusian civil society hungry for democratic reforms to push back against the government’s crackdown on opposition leaders and dissidents.
The debate on Capitol Hill drives at an existential question in the world of American diplomacy: Is it better to engage with authoritarian regimes in a bid to check rival powers’ influence, or does that risk undermining U.S. values in supporting democracy and human rights?
One leading lawmaker, Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy, said he is prepared to block the confirmation to send a signal to Lukashenko in the midst of a crackdown that has seen some 6,000 people arrested and at least two people killed. The proposed envoy is Julie Fisher, a seasoned career diplomat with an extensive background in European affairs.
“Sending an ambassador to Minsk now, for the first time in over a decade, would signal that the United States condones these actions, and I am prepared to oppose the nomination in the Foreign Relations Committee unless it is withdrawn by the President,” said Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in a statement.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, another Democrat on the committee, expressed similar sentiments in a tweet on Tuesday, after a Belarus-born political consultant, Vitaly Shklyarov, was charged in Belarus last week for allegedly organizing an unsanctioned political rally; he could face up to three years’ imprisonment.
Belarus, a highly authoritarian state, has been rocked by unprecedented protests since Sunday after highly dubious elections handed Lukashenko a sixth term. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the elections as “not free and fair.”
But other congressional aides and diplomats said sending a U.S. envoy to Belarus is critical to both pushing back against the Lukashenko regime’s abuses—and forestalling even more influence there from rivals like Russia and China.
“Keeping [Belarus] out of the Chinese orbit and helping them pull away from Russia, that’s the bigger fight,” said one Republican congressional aide. “If you’re going to have this fight, you’re going to need to put a heavy hitter on the ground in Minsk.”
The feeling crosses the aisle.
“I don’t think that American Ambassadors should be considered rewards for good behavior—quite the opposite. We need strong ambassadors in countries with terrible human rights records to stand alongside opposition democratic actors and tell dictators what we think of them,” said a Democratic congressional aide. “Ambassadors are not rewards, tough U.S. diplomacy is not a reward,” the aide added.
Several U.S. diplomats who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity echoed that sentiment, even as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers Fisher’s nomination.
U.S. officials “don’t want to cede more space for Russia,” one diplomat said. “What do we gain by not sending her?”
Even without the potential block from Murphy, it could take months before Fisher arrives in Minsk, congressional aides said, given procedural hang-ups in Congress amid the pandemic lockdown that has pushed back routine business meetings and floor votes.
Belarus has long been a close ally of Russia, but Moscow’s invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 prompted Lukashenko to rethink his dependence on Russia, and he began to make increasing overtures to both the West and China.
In 2015, the United States gave Belarus some relief from sanctions after Lukashenko freed the country’s remaining political prisoners and held a peaceful, if not fair, presidential election. That paved the way for a thaw in relations, which picked up pace in January of last year, with Belarus ending a long-standing cap on the number of American diplomats allowed in the country. While the rapprochement was initially intended as a way to cajole Lukashenko to improve the country’s abysmal human rights record, human rights soon took a back seat to growing concerns about increasing Russian assertiveness in the region.
Last year, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton visited the country, at the time the highest-level U.S. trip to Minsk in decades. “[D]espite Alexander Lukashenko’s less-than-stellar human-rights record, I wanted to prove the US would not simply watch Belarus be reabsorbed by Russia, which [Russian President Vladimir] Putin seemed to be seriously considering,” Bolton later wrote in his memoir.
But sending a U.S. envoy there now, some say, would amount to a pat on the back for doing very little.
“There haven’t been a lot of developments on the human rights front over the past three years, but the Belarusians have got almost everything they wanted,” said one former administration official who worked on European issues, adding that, in Minsk, the dispatch of a U.S. ambassador to Belarus for the first time in over a decade would be “explicitly” seen as a reward.
“Perhaps it’s no surprise that there’s not a lot of fear in Minsk of what steps the EU and Russia will take,” the former official added.
The last U.S. ambassador to Belarus was expelled in 2008, when Washington imposed sanctions on Minsk over mounting human rights concerns.
“If the U.S ambassador comes there now, it will be a blessing of the crimes that Lukashenko is perpetrating,” said Andrei Sannikov, who was the deputy foreign minister of Belarus before resigning in protest in 1996.
Pompeo had a chance to take Lukashenko to task on Wednesday, when he gave a major speech on “Securing Freedom in the Heart of Europe” while on a visit to the Czech Republic. He didn’t mention Belarus once. But he sought to remedy that in an interview with Czech television later.
“We watched an election go on that was not free, that was not fair, and now we’ve seen them take actions against peaceful protesters that concern us all greatly,” he said. “I think Europe, I think the United States all need to figure out how to confront this in a way that delivers a good outcome for the people of Belarus.”


foreignpolicy--2020-08-12--QAnon Destroys Lives. Now It’s Coming for Congress.

In just a month , some 15,000 users have joined a Reddit community to share their stories of how the QAnon conspiracy is destroying their personal relationships .
“ No longer speaking with my mother , ” one user wrote .
“ Thanks a lot , Q.
” “ My wife was arrested as a result of Q , ” another posted .
“ I lost my friends because of Wayfair , ” wrote another user in July , referring to an iteration of QAnon that holds that the eponymous furniture store is actually a cover for child trafficking .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ group of friends but being a military wife they ’ re all I have.
” The circumstances of the stories posted to r/QAnonCasualties differ , but they share some core similarities : that the sprawling , complex , and entirely invented QAnon conspiracy theory has effectively brainwashed people close to them .
These users just want them back .
The toxic influence of the conspiracy theory is no small matter .
A QAnon supporter , Marjorie Taylor Greene , has just won her Georgia Republican primary and is almost certain to be elected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NBC reported this week that QAnon ’ s Facebook followers can be counted in the millions , to say nothing of its adherents on 4chan , Gab , YouTube , and other platforms .
Its reach is global .
Posters to the subreddit hail from the United Kingdom , Poland , and farther afield .
As Foreign Policy has reported previously , the conspiracy theory has become married to Donald Trump ’ s political movement , it has infiltrated an Iranian dissident group , and it may have even inspired a would-be assassin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the threat is not general or abstract but real and personal .
Posters speak of families split apart , relationships ended , friendships canceled .
The subreddit offers a painfully instructive window into how conspiracy theories manifest in everyday lives and how social media has become an incredibly powerful diffuser of even the most outlandish and foolish conspiracies .
As with all online communities , the stories are nearly impossible to verify , and it is possible these testimonials are invented or embellished , although they track closely with reported stories from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Q mythology , a primer : Dating back to 2016 , an allegation emerged that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were embroiled in a long-running plot to abduct and traffic children , in part to harvest a natural secretion called adrenochrome , which was used to keep aging politicians young .
According to a pseudonymous poster to 4chan and 8chan who claimed to hold “ Q ” clearance—in reality , a not particularly unusual or high-ranking security clearance within the U.S. Energy Department—Trump was part of a crusade to rid the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since then , every manner of conspiracy has been bolted and welded on , from David Icke ’ s belief that lizard people run our governments to the hypothesis that 9/11 was an inside job , and whole new conspiracies have been invented , like the allegation that hollow Wayfair furniture contain trafficked children .
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic , the theory has gained steam by subsuming all manner of fringe theorizing , from Bill Gates orchestrating the pandemic to mask usage being a government plot to pacify the masses .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debunked and can often be easily disproved .
The body does not produce adrenochrome , Wayfair furniture does not contain children , and lizard people aren ’ t real .
Yet Q ’ s followers are taught to ignore all sources of information that do not comport with the reality they ’ ve accepted .
Theirs is a war against the deep state—the Democratic Party , RINOs ( Republicans in Name Only ) , the media , Hollywood actors .
The enemies of the people will do whatever it takes to stop their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t be trusted .
Big names have lent the movement their credibility—or whatever is left of it .
Michael Flynn , Trump ’ s short-lived national security advisor , and trickster-cum-advisor Roger Stone have both signaled support for the conspiracy .
But Q doesn ’ t depend on high-level adherents .
It ’ s a memetic invasion created , fed , and propelled by the social media ecosystem .
Where once there may have been a single Q , there are now thousands .
The followers of Q are , themselves , Q @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own misguided research , elaborately crafted hypotheses , and ( sometimes ) doctored evidence .
It is a movement of collective leadership .
“ Your voice and your vote matters , ” one Q post promises .
“ Are you ready to serve once again ?
” another post asks its followers .
The informal motto of the movement is ubiquitous in Q circles : WWG1WGA—Where We Go One We Go All .
There is even a quasi-Christian element to the movement , pitting the religious crusaders of Q against the satanists of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do you beat it ?
While r/QAnonCasualties has become a support group , of sorts , it has also become a hub to swap stories on how QAnon adherents have been successfully deprogrammed and how their families are fighting back against the grip of the compelling conspiracy .
“ Every time my dad leaves his ipad sitting alone , i go to his youtube app and unsubscribe from the [ QAnon ] channels he ’ s been watching , ” one Reddit user wrote .
“ I know this is a breach of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t want him to become too far gone.
” Another user reported how they showed their QAnon-following mother just how easy it can be to change a webpage , by using Google Chrome ’ s inspector tool .
“ She ’ s mentioned it in a couple of our calls since , saying things like , ‘ I know this could be fake because of that thing you showed me… ’ ” the user wrote .
“ It ’ s small , but it ’ s one of the few bits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting her to realize she might be in over her head and doesn ’ t know the extent to which she could be manipulated with seemingly hard-cut evidence.
” The subreddit also offers an encyclopedic guide for dealing with those in the grips of the worldview-defining conspiracy theory and debunking the outlandish claims of Q .
The guide includes testimony from ex-followers , debunking resources , and actual advice on how to fight sex trafficking .
Getting through to those strung along by Q can be difficult , however .
One user recounted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the QAnon rabbit hole .
“ I can ’ t talk to him because he just shouts over me , ” she wrote .
“ I miss him so much and am so lonely now.
” One poster ’ s father no longer believes in QAnon but , they wrote , that “ Q was created by the deep state as controlled opposition in order to make conspiracy theorists look stupid.
” They confessed : “ I don ’ t know if this is good or bad news.
” There are markers that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the conspiracy .
Many users report that their loved ones have some sort of mental illness , depression , or were placed somewhere on the autism spectrum .
Some have been longtime conspiracy theorists .
While a number of followers are younger , many are older—a level of technology illiteracy may be a significant factor .
Social media and the internet have magnified this effect .
By flattening the field , allowing laypeople to do an enormous amount of research themselves , the whole movement has been drafted to help construct the church @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prioritize pumping out information , not providing context or credibility .
For many users , there is no substantive difference between receiving information from a Twitter account with a blue checkmark and receiving information from an account with a handful of followers .
The same goes for news sources : It can be difficult to tell from a landing page whether a website employs a thousand professional journalists or a lone writer .
Apps and stand-alone social media platforms allow Q followers to decamp to a space where their worldview is only ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of QAnon apps were removed from the Play Store by Google in May , while one Q-linked video platform is available from Apple ’ s App Store .
A study published last year by three Australian researchers found that general psychological traits , like impulsive decision-making and “ intensified perceptions of life stress , ” tended to correlate with a belief in conspiracies .
That largely echoed similar research that has been published over the years .
In a soon-to-be-published follow-up study , the same three researchers interviewed more than 600 people on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 .
Those who bought into these theories , the study found , are not necessarily stupid or gullible—but they “ are likely to have a pre-existing tendency to interpret information in a way that finds patterns , connections and causal relationships in events.
” This , coupled with a strong confirmation bias , further means “ that all new information will tend to be explained by existing belief systems when facing unexplainable events.
” ( Stress , however , appeared to be less of a factor than they anticipated . )
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believers may find it hard to believe that a virus could originate randomly from the natural world because it does not fit with their preconceived view that events have a reason and usually a human or government influence behind it , ” they write .
To that end , conspiracy theories may be a sort of modern twist on fears of witchcraft .
Across eras , and across civilizations , human beings have long sought out supernatural or outlandishly complicated explanations for unpleasant truths .
The witch craze of Salem , Massachusetts , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that came as a flood of refugees arrived from the wars of eastern Canada .
The Azande of North Central Africa believed , according to the English anthropologist E.E .
Evans-Pritchard , that mishaps could generally be blamed on witchcraft , lest there be strong evidence that human error was to blame .
“ Witchcraft participates in all misfortunes , ” he wrote in 1937 .
Children often figure into these collective delusions , such as the mass hysteria that racked North America throughout the 1980s and 1990s , leading to accusations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ child care workers of satanic influence and sexual abuse .
But , as r/QAnonCasualties makes abundantly clear , QAnon marries those moral panics with the trappings of a cult .
By the seriousness of what it alleges , QAnon consumes its followers , demanding they live their life in service of protecting children and vanquishing the deep state .
Family members on Reddit describe their loved ones spending hours a day watching Q-affiliated videos and spending hours more lecturing others on their research .
Some may even be driven to violence .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allegedly , by a man who believed he was doing Q ’ s work , while another well-armed Q follower was arrested near Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ’ s home and charged with threatening the leader ’ s life .
If we can liken Q to a cult—many users of the subreddit would certainly do so—we do have some experience to draw on .
In 1977 , Montreal-born Benji Carroll was brought to a hotel near the San Francisco Airport by his family .
He had become an enthusiastic adherent to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ movement headquartered in South Korea known as the “ Moonies.
” ( The movement is still around today and owns the conspiratorial Washington Times . )
A network of his friends , who had flown down from Quebec , met him at the hotel and basically held him captive for days as they attempted to “ deprogram ” him .
Essentially , it worked .
“ What I went through , ” Carroll would later say of the Moonies , “ is nothing short of mind control.
” The ones who brought Carroll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to found an organization mandated to exfiltrate and deprogram cult members .
In his 1989 dissertation , the psychologist Steve K.D .
Eichel seemed to endorse the effectiveness of deprogramming but underscored that a personal rapport was crucial .
And while it required rigor and planning , deprogramming “ contained many of the elements typically associated with casual conversation , ” he wrote .
Eichel posited that there were three parts to deprogramming : persuasive conversation , where the deprogrammers make a clear case that remaining with the cult is a mistake ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around cults and “ mind control ” ; and a moral discourse , wherein the cult leadership is exposed as hypocrites .
Deprogramming has fallen out of fashion—and for good reason .
Beyond the legal and human rights implications of abducting cult members , deprogramming itself became a tool of abuse or state oppression for some .
And while there have been successes , things are rarely as simple as sitting someone in a room and holding a conspiracy intervention .
That ’ s especially true today , when access to the cult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or a temple but through every smartphone and laptop .
The West has had to grapple with the power of the internet on its most disaffected as it has worked to detangle its citizens from the slick propaganda of the Islamic State .
A core tenet of efforts to combat online radicalization is meeting online users where they are , on platforms like Twitter and Telegram .
A team of researchers from the United States and Canada argued in a 2016 paper that empathy and “ civil , sustained conversations ” can go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on radicalized people .
Humor—like photoshopping rubber ducks into Islamic State propaganda—may neutralize dangerous speech and help expand the reach of the countermessaging , they argued .
Yet QAnon , perhaps even more so than many cults or online radical movements , has built-in antibodies .
It teaches its followers that everyone else needs to be deprogrammed— “ red-pilled , ” as in The Matrix .
Fact-checkers are just part of the media conspiracy .
Opponents to the conspiracy are just taking the mainstream media at face value , unwilling to do their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the verified Twitter user is actually less trustworthy than the independent researcher with 12 followers ; the professional media website is less credible than the fringe blog .
Most perniciously , and something the users of r/QAnonCasualties know all too well , the movement tells adherents to ditch their loved ones if they can ’ t be recruited .
“ We are your family now , ” QAnon followers tell each other .
To that end , Q does exactly what other cults have done : It offers family and faith to those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s why families and religious leaders will ultimately be instrumental in breaking its hold .
QAnon , perversely , has even offered followers strategies to , in their minds , deprogram their friends and family .
One QAnon guide offers tactics like “ ask open-ended questions , ” “ let the other person be the expert , ” and “ when you sense that they ’ re starting to push back , quickly change the subject back to small talk and wait for a better time.
” How do you deprogram a deprogrammer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely to do much good .
Last Week Tonight host John Oliver tried his own hand at producing videos of prominent celebrities to help combat conspiracy theories in the era of COVID-19—from Alex Trebek to Billy Porter—but it seems ill-designed , given that so much of QAnon revolves around claims that its opponents , especially celebrities , are in on it .
Indeed , a paper published in the journal Frontiers in Psychology in June found that , when some counterradicalization efforts were applied to a random sample of individuals , especially from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shape their perspective have the unintended effect of strengthening their ideological positions.
” Clear attempts to change individuals ’ minds from a source perceived as untrustworthy are doomed to fail .
The research found that a compelling driver for radicalization was a “ need for closure ” —a desire for certainty and an abhorrence of unpredictability .
“ [ I ] t reflects the degree to which people want to preserve their belief systems to avoid uncertainty , ” the researchers found .
“ The greater such need , the greater the reactance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tale of hope .
And it may offer some interesting insights into how online radicalization and conspiracy movements can be countered .
After initially posting about her inability to get through to her husband , the one who would shout down any attempts to counter Q , the Redditor provided an update : “ It might not work but I don ’ t think my husband is completely gone yet , ” she wrote .
She had spent the better part of a day reading through her husband ’ s Twitter feed and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that your own mental health is strong , I would not recommend doing this , ” she cautioned . )
When her husband came home from work , she wrote , she confronted him .
“ I was determined to remain calm , not slip into either belittling or patronising him and listen to what he had to say .
… I just kept reminding myself that I was not angry at him .
I was angry at Q.
” She posted , in some detail , the back-and-forth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explained to him the logical fallacies and factual inaccuracies at the core of Q .
“ [ T ] hey have told you to restrict your information to only what they sanction as being true and to turn your back on and dismiss anything and everything that disproves or denies their ‘ truth , ’ ” she explained , per her retelling .
“ In what way is this NOT a cult ?
” Days later , she posted another update .
The confrontation about Q had spiraled into a larger conversation about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but she had to finally lay down an ultimatum : It ’ s either me or Q .
It seemed as if he was ready to pick the latter .
Just as she packed her bags , she wrote , he came up and apologized .
He had deleted his Twitter account and gotten rid of the Q app .
“ I still think that we ’ ve got a long way to go , ” she wrote , but signed off on a note of optimism .
It may ultimately fall to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boosters to convince them that , as the deprogrammers of decades prior did , their belief system has become skewed ; to lay out how conspiracy theories take root , as Q has ; and to showcase why figures like Trump and online Q proselytizers are , in fact , not the brave truth-tellers the conspiracy has led them to believe .
For now , however , Q keeps growing .

In just a month, some 15,000 users have joined a Reddit community to share their stories of how the QAnon conspiracy is destroying their personal relationships.
In just a month, some 15,000 users have joined a Reddit community to share their stories of how the QAnon conspiracy is destroying their personal relationships.
“No longer speaking with my mother,” one user wrote. “Thanks a lot, Q.”
“My wife was arrested as a result of Q,” another posted.
“I lost my friends because of Wayfair,” wrote another user in July, referring to an iteration of QAnon that holds that the eponymous furniture store is actually a cover for child trafficking. “It’s just a Facebook group of friends but being a military wife they’re all I have.”
The circumstances of the stories posted to r/QAnonCasualties differ, but they share some core similarities: that the sprawling, complex, and entirely invented QAnon conspiracy theory has effectively brainwashed people close to them. These users just want them back.
The toxic influence of the conspiracy theory is no small matter. A QAnon supporter, Marjorie Taylor Greene, has just won her Georgia Republican primary and is almost certain to be elected to the U.S. Congress this November. NBC reported this week that QAnon’s Facebook followers can be counted in the millions, to say nothing of its adherents on 4chan, Gab, YouTube, and other platforms.
Supporters take photos with Marjorie Taylor Greene (in red) in Rome, Georgia, on Aug. 11. Greene, a QAnon supporter, won the GOP nomination for northwest Georgia's 14th U.S. Congressional District.
Its reach is global. Posters to the subreddit hail from the United Kingdom, Poland, and farther afield. As Foreign Policy has reported previously, the conspiracy theory has become married to Donald Trump’s political movement, it has infiltrated an Iranian dissident group, and it may have even inspired a would-be assassin in Canada.
But on r/QAnonCasualties, the threat is not general or abstract but real and personal. Posters speak of families split apart, relationships ended, friendships canceled. The subreddit offers a painfully instructive window into how conspiracy theories manifest in everyday lives and how social media has become an incredibly powerful diffuser of even the most outlandish and foolish conspiracies.
As with all online communities, the stories are nearly impossible to verify, and it is possible these testimonials are invented or embellished, although they track closely with reported stories from the Q orbit.
For those unfamiliar with the Q mythology, a primer: Dating back to 2016, an allegation emerged that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were embroiled in a long-running plot to abduct and traffic children, in part to harvest a natural secretion called adrenochrome, which was used to keep aging politicians young. According to a pseudonymous poster to 4chan and 8chan who claimed to hold “Q” clearance—in reality, a not particularly unusual or high-ranking security clearance within the U.S. Energy Department—Trump was part of a crusade to rid the world of this child trafficking deep state.
Since then, every manner of conspiracy has been bolted and welded on, from David Icke’s belief that lizard people run our governments to the hypothesis that 9/11 was an inside job, and whole new conspiracies have been invented, like the allegation that hollow Wayfair furniture contain trafficked children. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the theory has gained steam by subsuming all manner of fringe theorizing, from Bill Gates orchestrating the pandemic to mask usage being a government plot to pacify the masses.
These stories are fictional and have been consistently debunked and can often be easily disproved. The body does not produce adrenochrome, Wayfair furniture does not contain children, and lizard people aren’t real. Yet Q’s followers are taught to ignore all sources of information that do not comport with the reality they’ve accepted. Theirs is a war against the deep state—the Democratic Party, RINOs (Republicans in Name Only), the media, Hollywood actors. The enemies of the people will do whatever it takes to stop their quest for justice and therefore can’t be trusted.
Big names have lent the movement their credibility—or whatever is left of it. Michael Flynn, Trump’s short-lived national security advisor, and trickster-cum-advisor Roger Stone have both signaled support for the conspiracy.
A sign in the shape of a Q for QAnon is held up in front of U.S. President Donald Trump at his Make America Great Again Rally in Tampa, Florida, on July 31, 2018.
But Q doesn’t depend on high-level adherents. It’s a memetic invasion created, fed, and propelled by the social media ecosystem. Where once there may have been a single Q, there are now thousands. The followers of Q are, themselves, Q, propelling the conspiracy forward with their own misguided research, elaborately crafted hypotheses, and (sometimes) doctored evidence. It is a movement of collective leadership.
“Your voice and your vote matters,” one Q post promises. “Are you ready to serve once again?” another post asks its followers. The informal motto of the movement is ubiquitous in Q circles: WWG1WGA—Where We Go One We Go All. There is even a quasi-Christian element to the movement, pitting the religious crusaders of Q against the satanists of the deep state.
So, how do you beat it?
While r/QAnonCasualties has become a support group, of sorts, it has also become a hub to swap stories on how QAnon adherents have been successfully deprogrammed and how their families are fighting back against the grip of the compelling conspiracy.
“Every time my dad leaves his ipad sitting alone, i go to his youtube app and unsubscribe from the [QAnon] channels he’s been watching,” one Reddit user wrote. “I know this is a breach of privacy, but fuck it. I don’t want him to become too far gone.”
Another user reported how they showed their QAnon-following mother just how easy it can be to change a webpage, by using Google Chrome’s inspector tool. “She’s mentioned it in a couple of our calls since, saying things like, ‘I know this could be fake because of that thing you showed me…’” the user wrote. “It’s small, but it’s one of the few bits of progress I’ve seen in getting her to realize she might be in over her head and doesn’t know the extent to which she could be manipulated with seemingly hard-cut evidence.”
The subreddit also offers an encyclopedic guide for dealing with those in the grips of the worldview-defining conspiracy theory and debunking the outlandish claims of Q. The guide includes testimony from ex-followers, debunking resources, and actual advice on how to fight sex trafficking.
Getting through to those strung along by Q can be difficult, however. One user recounted how her husband had fallen deep into the QAnon rabbit hole. “I can’t talk to him because he just shouts over me,” she wrote. “I miss him so much and am so lonely now.”
One poster’s father no longer believes in QAnon but, they wrote, that “Q was created by the deep state as controlled opposition in order to make conspiracy theorists look stupid.” They confessed: “I don’t know if this is good or bad news.”
There are markers that seem to make people particularly susceptible to the conspiracy. Many users report that their loved ones have some sort of mental illness, depression, or were placed somewhere on the autism spectrum. Some have been longtime conspiracy theorists. While a number of followers are younger, many are older—a level of technology illiteracy may be a significant factor.
Social media and the internet have magnified this effect. By flattening the field, allowing laypeople to do an enormous amount of research themselves, the whole movement has been drafted to help construct the church of Q. Formats like Twitter and 4chan prioritize pumping out information, not providing context or credibility. For many users, there is no substantive difference between receiving information from a Twitter account with a blue checkmark and receiving information from an account with a handful of followers. The same goes for news sources: It can be difficult to tell from a landing page whether a website employs a thousand professional journalists or a lone writer.
Apps and stand-alone social media platforms allow Q followers to decamp to a space where their worldview is only ever affirmed, never challenged. A raft of QAnon apps were removed from the Play Store by Google in May, while one Q-linked video platform is available from Apple’s App Store.
A study published last year by three Australian researchers found that general psychological traits, like impulsive decision-making and “intensified perceptions of life stress,” tended to correlate with a belief in conspiracies. That largely echoed similar research that has been published over the years.
In a soon-to-be-published follow-up study, the same three researchers interviewed more than 600 people on their beliefs in conspiracies, especially around COVID-19. Those who bought into these theories, the study found, are not necessarily stupid or gullible—but they “are likely to have a pre-existing tendency to interpret information in a way that finds patterns, connections and causal relationships in events.” This, coupled with a strong confirmation bias, further means “that all new information will tend to be explained by existing belief systems when facing unexplainable events.” (Stress, however, appeared to be less of a factor than they anticipated.)
“In particular, [conspiracy theory] believers may find it hard to believe that a virus could originate randomly from the natural world because it does not fit with their preconceived view that events have a reason and usually a human or government influence behind it,” they write.
Supporters of President Donald Trump hold up their phones with messages referring to QAnon at a campaign rally at Las Vegas Convention Center in Nevada on Feb. 21.
To that end, conspiracy theories may be a sort of modern twist on fears of witchcraft. Across eras, and across civilizations, human beings have long sought out supernatural or outlandishly complicated explanations for unpleasant truths. The witch craze of Salem, Massachusetts, offered a demonic explanation for local strife that came as a flood of refugees arrived from the wars of eastern Canada. The Azande of North Central Africa believed, according to the English anthropologist E.E. Evans-Pritchard, that mishaps could generally be blamed on witchcraft, lest there be strong evidence that human error was to blame. “Witchcraft participates in all misfortunes,” he wrote in 1937. Children often figure into these collective delusions, such as the mass hysteria that racked North America throughout the 1980s and 1990s, leading to accusations, often baseless, against various teachers and child care workers of satanic influence and sexual abuse.
But, as r/QAnonCasualties makes abundantly clear, QAnon marries those moral panics with the trappings of a cult. By the seriousness of what it alleges, QAnon consumes its followers, demanding they live their life in service of protecting children and vanquishing the deep state. Family members on Reddit describe their loved ones spending hours a day watching Q-affiliated videos and spending hours more lecturing others on their research. Some may even be driven to violence. A noted mob boss was gunned down, allegedly, by a man who believed he was doing Q’s work, while another well-armed Q follower was arrested near Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s home and charged with threatening the leader’s life.
If we can liken Q to a cult—many users of the subreddit would certainly do so—we do have some experience to draw on.
In 1977, Montreal-born Benji Carroll was brought to a hotel near the San Francisco Airport by his family. He had become an enthusiastic adherent to the Unification Church, a New Age Christian movement headquartered in South Korea known as the “Moonies.” (The movement is still around today and owns the conspiratorial Washington Times.) A network of his friends, who had flown down from Quebec, met him at the hotel and basically held him captive for days as they attempted to “deprogram” him. Essentially, it worked.
“What I went through,” Carroll would later say of the Moonies, “is nothing short of mind control.”
The ones who brought Carroll back to reality would later go on to found an organization mandated to exfiltrate and deprogram cult members.
In his 1989 dissertation, the psychologist Steve K.D. Eichel seemed to endorse the effectiveness of deprogramming but underscored that a personal rapport was crucial. And while it required rigor and planning, deprogramming “contained many of the elements typically associated with casual conversation,” he wrote.
Eichel posited that there were three parts to deprogramming: persuasive conversation, where the deprogrammers make a clear case that remaining with the cult is a mistake; teaching, where they lay out facts around cults and “mind control”; and a moral discourse, wherein the cult leadership is exposed as hypocrites.
Deprogramming has fallen out of fashion—and for good reason. Beyond the legal and human rights implications of abducting cult members, deprogramming itself became a tool of abuse or state oppression for some.
And while there have been successes, things are rarely as simple as sitting someone in a room and holding a conspiracy intervention. That’s especially true today, when access to the cult does not exist exclusively through a commune or a temple but through every smartphone and laptop.
The West has had to grapple with the power of the internet on its most disaffected as it has worked to detangle its citizens from the slick propaganda of the Islamic State.
A core tenet of efforts to combat online radicalization is meeting online users where they are, on platforms like Twitter and Telegram. A team of researchers from the United States and Canada argued in a 2016 paper that empathy and “civil, sustained conversations” can go a long way in breaking the hold on radicalized people. Humor—like photoshopping rubber ducks into Islamic State propaganda—may neutralize dangerous speech and help expand the reach of the countermessaging, they argued.
Yet QAnon, perhaps even more so than many cults or online radical movements, has built-in antibodies. It teaches its followers that everyone else needs to be deprogrammed—“red-pilled,” as in The Matrix. Fact-checkers are just part of the media conspiracy. Opponents to the conspiracy are just taking the mainstream media at face value, unwilling to do their own research. Through this lens, the verified Twitter user is actually less trustworthy than the independent researcher with 12 followers; the professional media website is less credible than the fringe blog.
Most perniciously, and something the users of r/QAnonCasualties know all too well, the movement tells adherents to ditch their loved ones if they can’t be recruited. “We are your family now,” QAnon followers tell each other.
To that end, Q does exactly what other cults have done: It offers family and faith to those most looking for it. That’s why families and religious leaders will ultimately be instrumental in breaking its hold.
QAnon, perversely, has even offered followers strategies to, in their minds, deprogram their friends and family. One QAnon guide offers tactics like “ask open-ended questions,” “let the other person be the expert,” and “when you sense that they’re starting to push back, quickly change the subject back to small talk and wait for a better time.”
How do you deprogram a deprogrammer?
There have been attempts that are unlikely to do much good. Last Week Tonight host John Oliver tried his own hand at producing videos of prominent celebrities to help combat conspiracy theories in the era of COVID-19—from Alex Trebek to Billy Porter—but it seems ill-designed, given that so much of QAnon revolves around claims that its opponents, especially celebrities, are in on it.
Indeed, a paper published in the journal Frontiers in Psychology in June found that, when some counterradicalization efforts were applied to a random sample of individuals, especially from governments and NGOs, “attempts to shape their perspective have the unintended effect of strengthening their ideological positions.” Clear attempts to change individuals’ minds from a source perceived as untrustworthy are doomed to fail.
The research found that a compelling driver for radicalization was a “need for closure”—a desire for certainty and an abhorrence of unpredictability. “[I]t reflects the degree to which people want to preserve their belief systems to avoid uncertainty,” the researchers found. “The greater such need, the greater the reactance to persuasive appeals.”
r/QAnonCasualties offers a tale of hope. And it may offer some interesting insights into how online radicalization and conspiracy movements can be countered.
After initially posting about her inability to get through to her husband, the one who would shout down any attempts to counter Q, the Redditor provided an update: “It might not work but I don’t think my husband is completely gone yet,” she wrote.
She had spent the better part of a day reading through her husband’s Twitter feed and meticulously researching QAnon. (“Unless you are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that your own mental health is strong, I would not recommend doing this,” she cautioned.)
When her husband came home from work, she wrote, she confronted him. “I was determined to remain calm, not slip into either belittling or patronising him and listen to what he had to say. … I just kept reminding myself that I was not angry at him. I was angry at Q.”
She posted, in some detail, the back-and-forth that followed. She clearly and patiently explained to him the logical fallacies and factual inaccuracies at the core of Q. “[T]hey have told you to restrict your information to only what they sanction as being true and to turn your back on and dismiss anything and everything that disproves or denies their ‘truth,’” she explained, per her retelling. “In what way is this NOT a cult?”
Days later, she posted another update. The confrontation about Q had spiraled into a larger conversation about their marriage and his mental health, but she had to finally lay down an ultimatum: It’s either me or Q. It seemed as if he was ready to pick the latter.
Just as she packed her bags, she wrote, he came up and apologized. He had deleted his Twitter account and gotten rid of the Q app. “I still think that we’ve got a long way to go,” she wrote, but signed off on a note of optimism.
It may ultimately fall to the family and friends of these Q boosters to convince them that, as the deprogrammers of decades prior did, their belief system has become skewed; to lay out how conspiracy theories take root, as Q has; and to showcase why figures like Trump and online Q proselytizers are, in fact, not the brave truth-tellers the conspiracy has led them to believe.
For now, however, Q keeps growing.