foreignpolicy--2020-08-14--Is Belarus Putin’s Next Target?

Is Belarus Putin’s Next Target?

Emma Ashford : Hey , Matt , have you heard the good news ?
The Russians have a coronavirus vaccine , and I ’ m so excited that I ’ ll soon be able to work somewhere other than my basement .
Of course , it ’ s completely untested , but it ’ s not like the Kremlin has ever lied to us about important things before , right ?
Matthew Kroenig : Exactly , we don ’ t trust Russia to tell the truth on arms control agreements or cease-fires in Ukraine—I ’ m not about to trust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hope the vaccine proves effective , but I am skeptical .
But it can ’ t be any worse than what another figure in the news this week has advocated as a cure : Belarus ’ s dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko was promoting vodka and saunas .
EA : Well , at least if that doesn ’ t cure the coronavirus , it ’ s still a good time !
Of course , with the people of Belarus protesting Lukashenko ’ s brutal leadership and his coronavirus failures , I ’ m not too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MK : There was some good news this week .
Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached a surprise diplomatic breakthrough , making the UAE the first Arab country to establish normal diplomatic relations with the Israel in years .
This is also a major vindication of President Donald Trump ’ s Middle East policy .
Obama scolded the United States ’ Gulf partners and urged them to “ share ” the region with Iran .
But Trump ’ s approach of pressuring a longstanding enemy in Tehran and backing traditional partners in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective .
I hope this becomes the new bipartisan consensus on how to approach the region .
EA : It ’ s a big announcement , but let ’ s not get overexcited .
I see three problems : first , this isn ’ t a surprise to Middle East watchers .
The Emiratis , the Saudis , and the Israelis have been quietly cooperating on security issues for a while now .
Second , almost as soon as the White House made its announcement , the parties to the deal started to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zayed ’ s statement only said that they ’ ll work towards setting up bilateral relations .
And third , this announcement doesn ’ t really solve the region ’ s actual problems : the maximum pressure campaign against Iran is a failure , there ’ s no prospect of a resolution for the Palestinian people , and wars continue to rage in Libya , Yemen , and Syria .
Obama scolded the United States ’ Gulf partners and urged them to “ share ” the region with Iran .
But Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Tehran and backing traditional partners in Israel and the Gulf has proved more effective .
Back here in the United States , we finally have some news on the presidential election .
Joe Biden announced that his running mate will be Kamala Harris .
Of course , that doesn ’ t help us foreign-policy specialists .
Who can tell what Harris ’ s foreign policy will look like ?
MK : Yes .
Big news .
Despite much recent talk of the United States as an irredeemably discriminatory place , we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nominated by a major political party for the second-most-important position in the country .
The announcement shows that the American dream is alive and well .
Every international relations wonk in town will be scrutinizing her record to get a sense of her foreign-policy instincts .
What have you found ?
EA : Well , she has no significant foreign policy experience .
It ’ s not surprising that wasn ’ t a prerequisite for the VP spot , given Biden ’ s wealth of experience in that field .
But we do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a questionnaire that the Council on Foreign Relations gave all the primary contenders .
And I found her responses quite intriguing : She opposes military intervention in Venezuela , commits to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan , and opposes the Saudi-led war in Yemen—all priorities of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party .
Did you spot anything interesting ?
MK : Her work on the Senate Intelligence Committee is of course relevant , but since much of its work is classified , it is hard to learn much about her views from that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really dug into the details of Russian election interference .
Her views may be more relevant than normal for a VP , as actuarial tables suggest she has a reasonable chance of becoming commander in chief in the coming years .
She seems focused on human rights abuses in China and intent to return to a nuclear deal with Iran .
For a ticket devoted to turning Donald Trump out of office , however , there were some interesting commonalities between Harris ’ s views and Trump ’ s foreign policy : a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of free trade .
For a ticket devoted to turning Donald Trump out of office , however , there were some interesting commonalities with Trump ’ s foreign policy : a skepticism of U.S. military engagements overseas and of free trade .
On trade , she was opposed to both the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership .
EA : It ’ s honestly difficult to separate her views from political necessities .
She might be pro-trade but constrained by the leftward shift of the Democratic Party .
She might be more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to progressive voters .
Only time will tell .
But Harris ’ s pick isn ’ t actually the most significant news at the moment .
From a historically massive explosion in Beirut to rigged elections and protests in Belarus , it ’ s been a busy week .
Shall we take the crises in order ?
MK : Let ’ s do it .
Starting with Lebanon , from what we can tell , the blast appears to have been an accident , not an attack as many had speculated at first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the corruption in Lebanese politics and the malign influence of Hezbollah and Iran in that country and in the region .
EA : I think it says a lot about how we view Lebanon that many of the initial responses were conspiracy theories about Hezbollah or about Israeli sabotage , when the reality is almost certainly incompetence and corruption .
But Lebanon ’ s leaders have simply been too busy looting the country to bother about improper storage of the ammonium nitrate that ended up leveling half the city .
Even if Hezbollah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weapons , the ultimate blame lies with the Lebanese government .
But I don ’ t think we disagree on that .
What do you suggest that the United States should do about it ?
MK : I think it does present an opportunity to try to turn opinion in the country and the world against Hezbollah and Iran by reminding everyone of their corrosive effect on everything they touch .
Some talk about Iran ’ s attempts to exercise control in places like Lebanon and Yemen , but in reality Iran and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dysfunction in Lebanon has allowed Iran to extend its influence there and maintain Hezbollah as a deterrent against Israel .
The Trump administration is preparing targeted anti-corruption sanctions against select , pro-Hezbollah politicians and businessmen in Lebanon , and I think that could be a valuable step .
EA : But unless the sanctions are focused on Swiss bank accounts , they ’ ll probably end up hurting the average Lebanese citizen more than leaders .
Look at the sanctions on Syria : They ’ re meant to hurt the Bashar al-Assad regime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average Syrians instead .
I think it says a lot about how we view Lebanon that a lot of the initial responses were conspiracy theories about Hezbollah or about Israeli sabotage , when the reality is almost certainly incompetence and corruption .
MK : The idea would be to prohibit travel to the United States and freeze assets in U.S. jurisdictions , so they would be targeted .
And the United States has carrots as well .
Lebanon is badly in need of financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund and development aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. government and its allies can use their influence in those organizations to condition aid on anti-corruption reforms .
The aid could even be provided directly to NGOs to bypass the corrupt government .
Ultimately , however , I don ’ t think this problem can be fully resolved as long as Iran and Hezbollah remain active in the country .
EA : Hey , you know what would probably make Iran less likely to meddle in regional states using proxies ?
A less aggressive U.S. policy in the region .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proxies : It couldn ’ t possibly stand up to the United States and its regional partners on a conventional basis .
Honestly , proxies are just a fact of life in the Middle East .
The Saudis use them in Yemen and Syria , the Emiratis in Libya , and the Qataris in Syria .
Heck , Emirati-backed proxies in the south of Yemen are close to declaring independence !
As I see it , in Lebanon and elsewhere , the point is not to bemoan the use of proxies but to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help the people of these countries to undermine that foreign influence .
MK : The timeline of events just doesn ’ t support the notion that the United States is responsible for Iran ’ s bad behavior .
The Islamic Republic was created for the purpose of resisting the United States and exporting revolution .
If Tehran wants better relations with the United States , it can give up its nuclear and missile program and stop supporting terrorism .
As Henry Kissinger once said , Iran ’ s leaders need to decide if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a cause .
EA : Have you ever considered trying honey rather than vinegar ?
Demands that Iran stop meddling in its neighbors—or give up missiles—haven ’ t got us anywhere .
Instead , look at the example of Lebanon : One of the reasons that Hezbollah is so popular is that it manages a network of social services that the regular government has failed to provide for its people .
Humanitarian aid and capacity-building in Lebanon , not more sanctions , is probably the quickest way to undermine Hezbollah .
But Lebanon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a totally unaccountable government .
Let ’ s get back to Belarus ?
MK : Yes , it has been a dramatic story .
The man referred to as “ the last dictator in Europe , ” Aleksandr Lukashenko , faced a serious electoral challenge from a 37-year-old woman , Svetlana Tikhanovskaya .
Some thought that he may have been swept from office .
Instead , he rigged the elections , sent in security forces to beat protesters , and , after being detained by government forces , Tikhanovskaya fled the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ outcome .
What do you make of it ?
EA : I suspect anyone surprised that Lukashenko rigged the election doesn ’ t know much about Belarus .
But then , practically no one does .
Belarus is a post-Soviet republic so unreconstructed that its security services are literally still called the KGB .
What I think we need to be careful about is framing this as another Russia-versus-the-West conflict like the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine .
It ’ s almost the opposite here : Lukashenko had been making overtures to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been getting increasingly upset with him .
Anyone surprised that Lukashenko rigged the election doesn ’ t know much about Belarus .
MK : Yes .
Neither Lukashenko nor the Belarusian people like being completely under Putin ’ s thumb .
It would be good for U.S. interests , and the ability of NATO to defend its members , if Belarus became less of a Russian puppet and pursued a more autonomous foreign policy .
EA : We ’ ve got to remember two things , though .
The first is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Russia .
They both belong to an EU-style customs union that allows for free movement of goods and people , and there have long been plans for firmer economic and political union .
It hasn ’ t happened yet , but that ’ s not to say it couldn ’ t .
And second , I think it ’ s unfortunately the case that the United States or the EU kicking up a fuss about this election is the most likely thing to actually push Lukashenko back toward Moscow .
After all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , what else is he going to do ?
MK : Well , a government in Belarus led by the opposition would likely do more to advance U.S. values and interests , as I suspect that a new government would be even less keen to turn back to Moscow .
EA : Tikhanovskaya or her husband , maybe .
But the other main opposition leaders in Belarus—the ones who fled the country before the election—fled to Moscow .
I wouldn ’ t be so sure that an opposition government in Belarus would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We should not underestimate Belarus ’ s strategic importance , however .
If Putin can easily station and operate forces from Belarus , NATO ’ s task of defending vulnerable front-line states is much harder .
Russia could move forces from Belarus to the exclave of Kaliningrad , cutting off the Suwalki Corridor , which is strategically vital because it is the only land bridge between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO .
He could also attack Eastern Poland from Belarus to tie down NATO forces there .
If , on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count on Belarus as a staging ground , NATO will be safer .
EA : This is the problem with war-gaming .
You get too caught up in the possibilities without considering whether they ’ re likely .
Russia is pretty damn unlikely to engage in a ground invasion of NATO .
But here ’ s a more likely scenario that I think should give you pause : a rerun of Crimea in 2014 .
When it looked like a new government in Kyiv would shut off Russia ’ s contracted access to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just invaded and seized the region .
What makes you think that wouldn ’ t be his response to a Belarus that was leaning toward the EU ?
MK : It goes to show the state of Russian soft power today .
The only way Putin can keep neighboring countries from turning against Moscow is by invading them .
It ’ s no wonder that he is promoting untested vaccines in a bid to salvage Russia ’ s reputation .
We have come a long way from the hope at the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including Russia , would soon become whole and free .
Indeed , perhaps we should end by commemorating a person who helped bring the Cold War to its peaceful conclusion .
Brent Scowcroft , the only person to serve as national security advisor to two presidents , passed away last week at the age of 95 .
He had a long and distinguished career of nonpartisan service , and it is notable , in this divided country , that no one seems to have a negative word to say about him .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of the great minds of U.S. foreign policy to be amazing .
George Kennan died at 101 , having seen the First World War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq .
Scowcroft died at 95 ; he was a teenager during World War II and lived to see the age of Trump .
It ’ s quite amazing to think about the changes they saw during their lifetimes .
But on Scowcroft , I find the most impressive thing about him to be that he was willing to challenge the beliefs of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would make better U.S. foreign policy : He spoke out publicly against the Iraq War , and he even criticized NATO expansion .
MK : I had the chance to meet him as an employee of his namesake Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security .
I was struck by his intelligence and conviction , but also by his humility .
I think he was so effective in those demanding roles because , despite his position and accomplishments , he had no discernible ego .
I hope we see more public servants like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fear that he may be the product of a bygone age in U.S. politics .
EA : Finally , an area where I ’ m less of a pessimist than you !
I thought the outpouring of anecdotes about Scowcroft after his death was a good sign : People are looking for a better U.S. foreign policy and a politics that is focused less on insults and more on concrete policy debates .
Maybe there ’ s hope for us all after all ?

Emma Ashford: Hey, Matt, have you heard the good news? The Russians have a coronavirus vaccine, and I’m so excited that I’ll soon be able to work somewhere other than my basement. Of course, it’s completely untested, but it’s not like the Kremlin has ever lied to us about important things before, right?
Emma Ashford: Hey, Matt, have you heard the good news? The Russians have a coronavirus vaccine, and I’m so excited that I’ll soon be able to work somewhere other than my basement. Of course, it’s completely untested, but it’s not like the Kremlin has ever lied to us about important things before, right?
Matthew Kroenig: Exactly, we don’t trust Russia to tell the truth on arms control agreements or cease-fires in Ukraine—I’m not about to trust it with global public health. I hope the vaccine proves effective, but I am skeptical.
But it can’t be any worse than what another figure in the news this week has advocated as a cure: Belarus’s dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko was promoting vodka and saunas.
Emma Ashford is a research fellow at the Cato Institute.
Matthew Kroenig is deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center. They debate foreign policy and the 2020 election.
EA: Well, at least if that doesn’t cure the coronavirus, it’s still a good time! Of course, with the people of Belarus protesting Lukashenko’s brutal leadership and his coronavirus failures, I’m not too sure this is the answer either.
MK: There was some good news this week. Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached a surprise diplomatic breakthrough, making the UAE the first Arab country to establish normal diplomatic relations with the Israel in years.
This is also a major vindication of President Donald Trump’s Middle East policy. Obama scolded the United States’ Gulf partners and urged them to “share” the region with Iran. But Trump’s approach of pressuring a longstanding enemy in Tehran and backing traditional partners in Israel and the Gulf has proved more effective. I hope this becomes the new bipartisan consensus on how to approach the region.
EA: It’s a big announcement, but let’s not get overexcited. I see three problems: first, this isn’t a surprise to Middle East watchers. The Emiratis, the Saudis, and the Israelis have been quietly cooperating on security issues for a while now. Second, almost as soon as the White House made its announcement, the parties to the deal started to dial back their commitments. Mohammed bin Zayed’s statement only said that they’ll work towards setting up bilateral relations. And third, this announcement doesn’t really solve the region’s actual problems: the maximum pressure campaign against Iran is a failure, there’s no prospect of a resolution for the Palestinian people, and wars continue to rage in Libya, Yemen, and Syria.
Obama scolded the United States’ Gulf partners and urged them to “share” the region with Iran. But Trump’s approach of pressuring a longstanding enemy in Tehran and backing traditional partners in Israel and the Gulf has proved more effective.
Back here in the United States, we finally have some news on the presidential election. Joe Biden announced that his running mate will be Kamala Harris. Of course, that doesn’t help us foreign-policy specialists. Who can tell what Harris’s foreign policy will look like?
MK: Yes. Big news. Despite much recent talk of the United States as an irredeemably discriminatory place, we have a Black, female child of immigrants nominated by a major political party for the second-most-important position in the country. The announcement shows that the American dream is alive and well.
Every international relations wonk in town will be scrutinizing her record to get a sense of her foreign-policy instincts. What have you found?
EA: Well, she has no significant foreign policy experience. It’s not surprising that wasn’t a prerequisite for the VP spot, given Biden’s wealth of experience in that field. But we do have some statements, most notably from a questionnaire that the Council on Foreign Relations gave all the primary contenders. And I found her responses quite intriguing: She opposes military intervention in Venezuela, commits to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, and opposes the Saudi-led war in Yemen—all priorities of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Did you spot anything interesting?
MK: Her work on the Senate Intelligence Committee is of course relevant, but since much of its work is classified, it is hard to learn much about her views from that source. According to reports, she really dug into the details of Russian election interference.
Her views may be more relevant than normal for a VP, as actuarial tables suggest she has a reasonable chance of becoming commander in chief in the coming years. She seems focused on human rights abuses in China and intent to return to a nuclear deal with Iran.
For a ticket devoted to turning Donald Trump out of office, however, there were some interesting commonalities between Harris’s views and Trump’s foreign policy: a skepticism of U.S. military engagements overseas and of free trade.
For a ticket devoted to turning Donald Trump out of office, however, there were some interesting commonalities with Trump’s foreign policy: a skepticism of U.S. military engagements overseas and of free trade. On trade, she was opposed to both the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
EA: It’s honestly difficult to separate her views from political necessities. She might be pro-trade but constrained by the leftward shift of the Democratic Party. She might be more hawkish personally but was trying to appeal to progressive voters. Only time will tell.
But Harris’s pick isn’t actually the most significant news at the moment. From a historically massive explosion in Beirut to rigged elections and protests in Belarus, it’s been a busy week. Shall we take the crises in order?
MK: Let’s do it. Starting with Lebanon, from what we can tell, the blast appears to have been an accident, not an attack as many had speculated at first. But I do think it underscores the corruption in Lebanese politics and the malign influence of Hezbollah and Iran in that country and in the region.
EA: I think it says a lot about how we view Lebanon that many of the initial responses were conspiracy theories about Hezbollah or about Israeli sabotage, when the reality is almost certainly incompetence and corruption. But Lebanon’s leaders have simply been too busy looting the country to bother about improper storage of the ammonium nitrate that ended up leveling half the city. Even if Hezbollah was siphoning off the ammonium nitrate for weapons, the ultimate blame lies with the Lebanese government.
But I don’t think we disagree on that. What do you suggest that the United States should do about it?
MK: I think it does present an opportunity to try to turn opinion in the country and the world against Hezbollah and Iran by reminding everyone of their corrosive effect on everything they touch. Some talk about Iran’s attempts to exercise control in places like Lebanon and Yemen, but in reality Iran and its proxies thrive in chaos.
The dysfunction in Lebanon has allowed Iran to extend its influence there and maintain Hezbollah as a deterrent against Israel. The Trump administration is preparing targeted anti-corruption sanctions against select, pro-Hezbollah politicians and businessmen in Lebanon, and I think that could be a valuable step.
EA: But unless the sanctions are focused on Swiss bank accounts, they’ll probably end up hurting the average Lebanese citizen more than leaders. Look at the sanctions on Syria: They’re meant to hurt the Bashar al-Assad regime, and they’re mostly hurting average Syrians instead.
I think it says a lot about how we view Lebanon that a lot of the initial responses were conspiracy theories about Hezbollah or about Israeli sabotage, when the reality is almost certainly incompetence and corruption.
MK: The idea would be to prohibit travel to the United States and freeze assets in U.S. jurisdictions, so they would be targeted. And the United States has carrots as well. Lebanon is badly in need of financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund and development aid from the World Bank, and the U.S. government and its allies can use their influence in those organizations to condition aid on anti-corruption reforms. The aid could even be provided directly to NGOs to bypass the corrupt government. Ultimately, however, I don’t think this problem can be fully resolved as long as Iran and Hezbollah remain active in the country.
EA: Hey, you know what would probably make Iran less likely to meddle in regional states using proxies? A less aggressive U.S. policy in the region. There’s a reason that Iran mostly uses proxies: It couldn’t possibly stand up to the United States and its regional partners on a conventional basis.
Honestly, proxies are just a fact of life in the Middle East. The Saudis use them in Yemen and Syria, the Emiratis in Libya, and the Qataris in Syria. Heck, Emirati-backed proxies in the south of Yemen are close to declaring independence! As I see it, in Lebanon and elsewhere, the point is not to bemoan the use of proxies but to think whether there are ways Washington can help the people of these countries to undermine that foreign influence.
MK: The timeline of events just doesn’t support the notion that the United States is responsible for Iran’s bad behavior. The Islamic Republic was created for the purpose of resisting the United States and exporting revolution. If Tehran wants better relations with the United States, it can give up its nuclear and missile program and stop supporting terrorism. As Henry Kissinger once said, Iran’s leaders need to decide if they want to be a country or a cause.
EA: Have you ever considered trying honey rather than vinegar? Demands that Iran stop meddling in its neighbors—or give up missiles—haven’t got us anywhere. Instead, look at the example of Lebanon: One of the reasons that Hezbollah is so popular is that it manages a network of social services that the regular government has failed to provide for its people. Humanitarian aid and capacity-building in Lebanon, not more sanctions, is probably the quickest way to undermine Hezbollah.
But Lebanon isn’t the only place with a totally unaccountable government. Let’s get back to Belarus?
MK: Yes, it has been a dramatic story. The man referred to as “the last dictator in Europe,” Aleksandr Lukashenko, faced a serious electoral challenge from a 37-year-old woman, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Some thought that he may have been swept from office. Instead, he rigged the elections, sent in security forces to beat protesters, and, after being detained by government forces, Tikhanovskaya fled the country. It is a disappointing but not surprising outcome.
What do you make of it?
EA: I suspect anyone surprised that Lukashenko rigged the election doesn’t know much about Belarus. But then, practically no one does. Belarus is a post-Soviet republic so unreconstructed that its security services are literally still called the KGB.
What I think we need to be careful about is framing this as another Russia-versus-the-West conflict like the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine. It’s almost the opposite here: Lukashenko had been making overtures to the European Union, and Vladimir Putin had been getting increasingly upset with him.
Anyone surprised that Lukashenko rigged the election doesn’t know much about Belarus.
MK: Yes. Neither Lukashenko nor the Belarusian people like being completely under Putin’s thumb. It would be good for U.S. interests, and the ability of NATO to defend its members, if Belarus became less of a Russian puppet and pursued a more autonomous foreign policy.
EA: We’ve got to remember two things, though. The first is that Belarus genuinely isn’t totally independent of Russia. They both belong to an EU-style customs union that allows for free movement of goods and people, and there have long been plans for firmer economic and political union. It hasn’t happened yet, but that’s not to say it couldn’t.
And second, I think it’s unfortunately the case that the United States or the EU kicking up a fuss about this election is the most likely thing to actually push Lukashenko back toward Moscow. After all, if he has no other prospects, what else is he going to do?
MK: Well, a government in Belarus led by the opposition would likely do more to advance U.S. values and interests, as I suspect that a new government would be even less keen to turn back to Moscow.
EA: Tikhanovskaya or her husband, maybe. But the other main opposition leaders in Belarus—the ones who fled the country before the election—fled to Moscow. I wouldn’t be so sure that an opposition government in Belarus would be either democratic or pro-Western.
MK: We should not underestimate Belarus’s strategic importance, however. If Putin can easily station and operate forces from Belarus, NATO’s task of defending vulnerable front-line states is much harder. Russia could move forces from Belarus to the exclave of Kaliningrad, cutting off the Suwalki Corridor, which is strategically vital because it is the only land bridge between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO. He could also attack Eastern Poland from Belarus to tie down NATO forces there.
If, on the other hand, Putin cannot count on Belarus as a staging ground, NATO will be safer.
EA: This is the problem with war-gaming. You get too caught up in the possibilities without considering whether they’re likely. Russia is pretty damn unlikely to engage in a ground invasion of NATO.
But here’s a more likely scenario that I think should give you pause: a rerun of Crimea in 2014. When it looked like a new government in Kyiv would shut off Russia’s contracted access to its naval base in Sevastopol, Putin just invaded and seized the region. What makes you think that wouldn’t be his response to a Belarus that was leaning toward the EU?
MK: It goes to show the state of Russian soft power today. The only way Putin can keep neighboring countries from turning against Moscow is by invading them. It’s no wonder that he is promoting untested vaccines in a bid to salvage Russia’s reputation. We have come a long way from the hope at the end of the Cold War that all of Europe, including Russia, would soon become whole and free.
Indeed, perhaps we should end by commemorating a person who helped bring the Cold War to its peaceful conclusion. Brent Scowcroft, the only person to serve as national security advisor to two presidents, passed away last week at the age of 95. He had a long and distinguished career of nonpartisan service, and it is notable, in this divided country, that no one seems to have a negative word to say about him.
EA: I find the longevity of some of the great minds of U.S. foreign policy to be amazing. George Kennan died at 101, having seen the First World War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Scowcroft died at 95; he was a teenager during World War II and lived to see the age of Trump. It’s quite amazing to think about the changes they saw during their lifetimes.
But on Scowcroft, I find the most impressive thing about him to be that he was willing to challenge the beliefs of even his close friends when he thought it would make better U.S. foreign policy: He spoke out publicly against the Iraq War, and he even criticized NATO expansion.
MK: I had the chance to meet him as an employee of his namesake Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. I was struck by his intelligence and conviction, but also by his humility. I think he was so effective in those demanding roles because, despite his position and accomplishments, he had no discernible ego. I hope we see more public servants like him in the future, but I fear that he may be the product of a bygone age in U.S. politics.
EA: Finally, an area where I’m less of a pessimist than you! I thought the outpouring of anecdotes about Scowcroft after his death was a good sign: People are looking for a better U.S. foreign policy and a politics that is focused less on insults and more on concrete policy debates. Maybe there’s hope for us all after all?


foreignpolicy--2020-08-15--After the Pandemic: the Future of Culture, Sports, and Entertainment

The cliché of the starving artist has gained new currency , as hundreds of thousands in these industries are either out of work or waiting for their furloughs to become layoffs .
Then there are the ripple effects : Shuttered attractions make the recovery of tourism even less likely ; children no longer learn about culture and history firsthand ; few of us are getting the creative inputs and distractions that make life both richer and more fun .
Slowly , the first venues are reopening—socially distanced , of course .
Forced by necessity and powered by creativity , digital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be as they were .
To help us make sense of a sector marked by uncertainty about the future like few others , Foreign Policy asked eight leaders and experts to weigh in with their predictions .
By Mark C. Hanson , the CEO of the San Francisco Symphony .
On the evening of March 6 , from my usual seat in Davies Symphony Hall , I listened to Mahler ’ s Sixth Symphony and knew it would be the final performance on that stage for a long time .
The next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first orchestra in the United States to announce the cancellation of live concerts as a result of local health ordinances .
There is still no return to live performances in our hall in sight .
COVID-19 will accelerate the arts ’ ability to connect with audiences through technology .
Without exaggeration , the effect of COVID-19 on the performing arts has been devastating .
The pandemic strikes at the heart of why orchestras exist : to bring people together and build community through the power and emotion of live music .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experience .
While I can ’ t predict the future , I do know that when audiences return , the pandemic ’ s legacy will likely be that it accelerated the arts ’ ability to connect with audiences through technology .
More than ever before , we are investing in and thinking creatively about new ways to support and expand those connections digitally , whether through streaming , augmented or virtual reality , or enhanced storytelling .
I have no doubt that we will look back on this moment and recognize it as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the post-pandemic world .
Will the performing arts look different going forward ?
Of course .
When we do reopen , it will be with socially distanced seating .
There will be testing protocols to keep our audience , musicians , and staff safe .
We will adjust and reimagine , yet again , how and what we do .
New forms of digital experience will not replace the live concert , with its visceral , emotive power to connect us .
I suspect I am not alone in yearning for the day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concert hall , surrounded by others who share a love of music .
Add the Crowd Noises , but Hold the High-Fives By Rick Cordella , executive vice president and chief revenue officer at Peacock .
The pandemic had an immediate effect on sports .
Worldwide and at all levels , just about any kind of sport was shut down .
The impact goes far beyond the canceled games and postponed seasons : Fans aren ’ t spending money in sports bars , no one is traveling for games , and communities aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enjoy .
After the darkness , the first professional sports are back—with major changes , of course : Empty stadiums , team bubbles to keep the players healthy , announcers and TV producers working remotely .
Fans at home want to watch as much as ever .
In fact , we ’ ve seen record ratings or multi-year highs in hockey , golf , soccer , baseball , and basketball .
There is obviously a cultural resiliency to our yearning for sports .
There is obviously a cultural resiliency to our yearning for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term shifts and psychological effects .
Some sports work better with precautions than others .
Golf and auto-racing are just as watchable , but an NFL game may need crowd noises added for television .
Even after there is a vaccine , some fans may not want to wait in long lines and sit shoulder-to-shoulder with 60,000 strangers .
Some things may be lost forever : Players high-fiving fans after a game , reporters crowding together with the team in the locker room .
The sports industry will change , too .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sports is hastening the existing move from cable television subscriptions to streaming services , with services such as Peacock making substantial new investments in the acquisition of rights since the pandemic began .
Sports , like the rest of society , will adapt .
And as long as there are fans excited to see their favorite players and teams , and cheer for their home cities and countries , sports as a business will continue to be healthy and prosperous .
COVID-19 Has Put Hollywood on the Respirator By Jonathan Kuntz , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Film , and Television at the University of California , Los Angeles .
The coronavirus has killed every branch of the Hollywood business model , and no respirator will ever revive it .
That model was already under siege before 2020 ’ s disaster , which only accelerated the changes unleashed by streaming services more than a decade ago .
The most obvious victims of the virus are movie theaters , which have been irretrievably devastated .
They are designed to bring people into close proximity for a collective experience .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; if they have any future at all , it will be as a redesigned , theme-park-like experience enjoyed at high prices once a year , relegating them to an exotic corner of the entertainment business .
The virus just hastened this transformation : Streaming films at home has been displacing theaters for a decade , and this change was coming , virus or no .
The coronavirus has killed every branch of the Hollywood business model , and no respirator will ever revive it .
The core profit center for the motion-picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distribution—getting those celluloid prints , and later hard drives , into projection booths nationwide .
The virus completely ended this business , after streaming had already eroded it by going directly to the consumer .
Even the Hollywood majors ’ ancillary market , DVDs and Blu-rays , has been eliminated by streaming .
The end of the virus will not bring back distribution or home video .
That business is over , too .
Even film production has been halted by the virus .
While protocols have recently been created to tentatively bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has only accelerated the transformation of film production by computer-generated imagery which replaces casts with pixels .
Sets and props assembled by thousands of craftspeople have been traded for a green screen , and individuals at computer monitors build the cinematic worlds we see .
The giant casts and crews of yesteryear are gone forever .
The virus has delivered a final blow to an already moribund patient , put on its deathbed by streaming services such as Netflix and 21st-century computer technology .
The scrambling by Disney , Universal , and Warner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to survive now involves no resurrection of traditional ways—big productions in theaters for a mass audience—but instead the desperate adoption of the streaming model , the buildup of content libraries , and the launching of subscription channels to see if a spot can be salvaged in this brave new world of computer-generated , home-based , atomized entertainment .
The Crisis Has Demonstrated the Power of Technology to Connect With Audiences By Audrey Azoulay , the director-general of UNESCO .
The pandemic has been devastating for culture and the arts .
In the vast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , cultural institutions completely or partially shut down , and many remain closed to this day .
Some may never open their doors again .
An even more urgent issue is that countless artists all over the world have been left without any income .
Millions of people have been deprived of revenues from tourism , which depends so heavily on cultural venues and products .
The crisis has revealed the deep vulnerability and fragility of our cultural ecosystems .
The world must come together to safeguard our cultural heritage .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important culture is for our lives and identities .
Culture helps anchor us in the present and allows us to imagine the future .
The crisis has also demonstrated the incredible opportunities offered by digital technologies to connect culture with audiences across the world , which will no doubt continue as a major trend moving forward .
In the coming years , it will be crucial to build a viable future for culture and support those involved in its development .
In response to the pandemic , UNESCO launched the ResiliArt movement , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far in more than 60 countries .
The world must come together to safeguard our cultural heritage by providing sustainable funding for cultural institutions .
We must ensure stable living and working conditions for artists to flourish .
And we must allow every person to have access to the full diversity of culture .
For culture sparks our imagination and unleashes our creativity to build a better future .
The Film Industry Will Shift to Countries Beating the Pandemic By Baltasar Kormakur , an Icelandic film director and producer .
When the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production for Netflix .
After two weeks of being shut down , we convinced them to let us start up again with our own system of safety protocols .
We were the guinea pigs to see if it could work .
We caught two cases , but had no transmission on the set .
I ’ m convinced that companies like ours that screen and send people to get tested help break the transmission .
There is so much work right now that our problem isn ’ t the virus ; it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the people we need .
Elsewhere , the industry has been absolutely devastated .
Everyone was shut down , from production to the cinemas .
How the pandemic will change the industry in the future depends a lot on the country .
The film industry in Iceland will grow because of the pandemic .
Cases are down , and there is so much work in film right now that our problem isn ’ t the virus ; it ’ s that we can ’ t find the people we need .
Without question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ along with a few other countries like Germany that have handled the pandemic with a steady hand , led by science , focused on endurance for the long term , and without panic .
The way the United States has handled it is still a mess , and it will be much trickier for the film industry there to start up again .
I think you ’ ll see the U.S. film industry produce more in other countries before they can feel safe at home again .
Who Wants to Host Future Olympics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senior fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the University of California , Berkeley .
Tokyo ’ s 2020 Summer Olympics festival has been postponed until 2021 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic .
No other modern Olympiad has ever been postponed , but some have been cancelled because of war , including Tokyo ’ s planned Games in 1940 .
The Antwerp Olympics of 1920 were held under the lingering effects of the devastating Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 , and they suffered accordingly .
Tokyo has already suffered twice—who wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains unclear whether the postponed Tokyo Games will actually come off in 2021 .
The pandemic shows no signs of abating , and if conditions continue as they are , the Games are unlikely to be held next summer .
Would or could they be postponed again ?
Not likely , say both Japanese organizers and the mandarins of the International Olympic Committee .
Enthusiasm for the extravaganza has already plummeted in Tokyo , and it would be virtually impossible to find a replacement city willing to take the tremendous financial risk .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more dependent on international travel than the Olympics .
Basketball and football games are thinkable ( if less enjoyable ) as television-only events , but the Olympics have been just as much a festival of nationalities among spectators as among the athletes .
Indeed , the longer-term effect of the coronavirus on the Olympics may well be that fewer cities show interest in hosting them .
Cities that win this “ prize ” are likely to make considerably less upfront investment in new infrastructure such as sports venues , hotels , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tokyo has already suffered twice .
Who wants to be Tokyo Number Three ?
A Golden Age of Museums Has Ended ( for Now ) By James S. Snyder , the director emeritus of the Israel Museum in Jerusalem and executive chairman of the Jerusalem Foundation .
Before the onset of the pandemic , the international museum community was bursting with strength .
A decade of robust philanthropy matched by an impressive record of global cultural diplomacy was enabling museums to present collections , share works , and showcase world culture in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ became increasingly accustomed to nurturing their souls by enjoying these displays in magnificent settings everywhere .
Nearly 90 percent of the world ’ s museums have had to close , and reopening them has already proven to be a tremendous challenge .
With COVID-19 , this splendor of enlightenment and exchange has come to a screeching halt .
Travelers are grounded , crowds can not congregate , and works of art and other cultural artifacts are frozen in place wherever they may be .
According to a recent UNESCO survey , nearly 90 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have had to close , at least temporarily , and reopening them has already proven to be a tremendous challenge .
Many museums remain closed .
But one by one , museums are testing ways to create a safe visiting experience without hampering the joy they traditionally bring to their audiences .
For now , this is about limiting visitor capacity , requiring pre-booking , registering contact information , and ensuring sanitized galleries and public spaces .
Going forward , museums will need new strategies for producing and presenting rich programming while no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ robust attendance figures that have helped enable their success—and for continuing to engage and educate their audiences both on-site and throughout the communities they serve .
For now , what is most important is to keep firmly in mind the individual and communal nourishment that museums provide as we emerge with strength from the darkness of today ’ s pandemic—and the essential role that museums must continue to play in our lives for a long time to come .
Cricket Will Be as It Was , but the Superpowers Will Be Strengthened By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based in Mumbai .
Cricket returned in early July , its appearance slightly altered .
The grounds were empty .
Celebrations were restrained—there were fist bumps , not high-fives .
Gone was the age-old practice of shining cricket balls with spit .
During tours , players from England , Pakistan , and West Indies lived in “ bio-bubbles ” —a secure environment .
When the pandemic eases , the crowds and the cheers will return to stadiums .
For the most part , cricket will be as it was .
The silver lining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a notoriously unregulated sport .
COVID-19 ’ s legacy will instead live on in the acceleration of the sport ’ s growing inequalities , especially between the handful of international teams around whom the global game revolves .
Cricket has several levels of competition , but international competition is its most important format .
Cricket ’ s superpowers—India , England , and Australia—will accumulate even greater clout , altering cricket in ways that go beyond the game .
Smaller international cricketing teams with fewer television revenues , such as West Indies , have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the pandemic .
Where domestic leagues have been up and running , many players have chosen the smaller but certain payday of club cricket over the financial insecurities of playing for the more prestigious but stressed national team .
In the perpetual war over broadcast deals and playing schedules , it easy to imagine the superpowers winning handily , and smaller cricketing nations falling in line .
The concentration of power and influence will have repercussions .
Players and staff will be unlikely to air grievances against owners and sponsors .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ domestic players will probably feel the pinch of cancelled and postponed tournaments that helped them get by .
The silver lining : Eventually these developments will lead to renewed calls for player protections in a notoriously unregulated sport , including a minimum wage and other forms of welfare .

Audrey Azoulay, Rahul Bhatia, Rick Cordella, Mark C. Hanson, Baltasar Kormakur, Jonathan Kuntz, David Clay Large and James S. Snyder

Perhaps no other sectors have been as devastated by the coronavirus pandemic as those that enrich and entertain us, from culture and the arts to sports and entertainment. Concert halls are closed, museums are gathering dust, cinemas are insolvent. If your favorite sports team is playing at all, it is in an eerily empty stadium—with the effect that the game no longer offers us a thrilling escape from the world but reminds us of its crisis.
Perhaps no other sectors have been as devastated by the coronavirus pandemic as those that enrich and entertain us, from culture and the arts to sports and entertainment. Concert halls are closed, museums are gathering dust, cinemas are insolvent. If your favorite sports team is playing at all, it is in an eerily empty stadium—with the effect that the game no longer offers us a thrilling escape from the world but reminds us of its crisis.
The cliché of the starving artist has gained new currency, as hundreds of thousands in these industries are either out of work or waiting for their furloughs to become layoffs. Then there are the ripple effects: Shuttered attractions make the recovery of tourism even less likely; children no longer learn about culture and history firsthand; few of us are getting the creative inputs and distractions that make life both richer and more fun.
Slowly, the first venues are reopening—socially distanced, of course. Forced by necessity and powered by creativity, digital reinvention is gathering speed. Few things will be as they were. To help us make sense of a sector marked by uncertainty about the future like few others, Foreign Policy asked eight leaders and experts to weigh in with their predictions.—Stefan Theil, deputy editor
The Day the Music Died
By Mark C. Hanson, the CEO of the San Francisco Symphony
On the evening of March 6, from my usual seat in Davies Symphony Hall, I listened to Mahler’s Sixth Symphony and knew it would be the final performance on that stage for a long time. The next day, the San Francisco Symphony became the first orchestra in the United States to announce the cancellation of live concerts as a result of local health ordinances. There is still no return to live performances in our hall in sight.
COVID-19 will accelerate the arts’ ability to connect with audiences through technology.
Without exaggeration, the effect of COVID-19 on the performing arts has been devastating. The pandemic strikes at the heart of why orchestras exist: to bring people together and build community through the power and emotion of live music. For many, that loss is an existential experience.
While I can’t predict the future, I do know that when audiences return, the pandemic’s legacy will likely be that it accelerated the arts’ ability to connect with audiences through technology. More than ever before, we are investing in and thinking creatively about new ways to support and expand those connections digitally, whether through streaming, augmented or virtual reality, or enhanced storytelling. I have no doubt that we will look back on this moment and recognize it as an impetus that served us well in the post-pandemic world.
Will the performing arts look different going forward? Of course. When we do reopen, it will be with socially distanced seating. There will be testing protocols to keep our audience, musicians, and staff safe. We will adjust and reimagine, yet again, how and what we do.
New forms of digital experience will not replace the live concert, with its visceral, emotive power to connect us. I suspect I am not alone in yearning for the day when I can again sit in that concert hall, surrounded by others who share a love of music.
Add the Crowd Noises, but Hold the High-Fives
By Rick Cordella, executive vice president and chief revenue officer at Peacock
The pandemic had an immediate effect on sports. Worldwide and at all levels, just about any kind of sport was shut down. The impact goes far beyond the canceled games and postponed seasons: Fans aren’t spending money in sports bars, no one is traveling for games, and communities aren’t getting the revenues they normally enjoy.
After the darkness, the first professional sports are back—with major changes, of course: Empty stadiums, team bubbles to keep the players healthy, announcers and TV producers working remotely. Fans at home want to watch as much as ever. In fact, we’ve seen record ratings or multi-year highs in hockey, golf, soccer, baseball, and basketball. There is obviously a cultural resiliency to our yearning for sports.
There is obviously a cultural resiliency to our yearning for sports.
The bigger question is about long-term shifts and psychological effects. Some sports work better with precautions than others. Golf and auto-racing are just as watchable, but an NFL game may need crowd noises added for television. Even after there is a vaccine, some fans may not want to wait in long lines and sit shoulder-to-shoulder with 60,000 strangers. Some things may be lost forever: Players high-fiving fans after a game, reporters crowding together with the team in the locker room.
The sports industry will change, too. In media, the shutdown and postponement of sports is hastening the existing move from cable television subscriptions to streaming services, with services such as Peacock making substantial new investments in the acquisition of rights since the pandemic began.
Sports, like the rest of society, will adapt. And as long as there are fans excited to see their favorite players and teams, and cheer for their home cities and countries, sports as a business will continue to be healthy and prosperous.
COVID-19 Has Put Hollywood on the Respirator
By Jonathan Kuntz, a film historian at the School of Theater, Film, and Television at the University of California, Los Angeles
The coronavirus has killed every branch of the Hollywood business model, and no respirator will ever revive it. That model was already under siege before 2020’s disaster, which only accelerated the changes unleashed by streaming services more than a decade ago.
The most obvious victims of the virus are movie theaters, which have been irretrievably devastated. They are designed to bring people into close proximity for a collective experience. They cannot survive years of little business; if they have any future at all, it will be as a redesigned, theme-park-like experience enjoyed at high prices once a year, relegating them to an exotic corner of the entertainment business. The virus just hastened this transformation: Streaming films at home has been displacing theaters for a decade, and this change was coming, virus or no.
The coronavirus has killed every branch of the Hollywood business model, and no respirator will ever revive it.
The core profit center for the motion-picture business since the 1910s has been theatrical distribution—getting those celluloid prints, and later hard drives, into projection booths nationwide. The virus completely ended this business, after streaming had already eroded it by going directly to the consumer. Even the Hollywood majors’ ancillary market, DVDs and Blu-rays, has been eliminated by streaming. The end of the virus will not bring back distribution or home video. That business is over, too.
Even film production has been halted by the virus. While protocols have recently been created to tentatively bring back the movie set, the virus has only accelerated the transformation of film production by computer-generated imagery which replaces casts with pixels. Sets and props assembled by thousands of craftspeople have been traded for a green screen, and individuals at computer monitors build the cinematic worlds we see. The giant casts and crews of yesteryear are gone forever.
The virus has delivered a final blow to an already moribund patient, put on its deathbed by streaming services such as Netflix and 21st-century computer technology. The scrambling by Disney, Universal, and Warner Bros. as the last major Hollywood companies to survive now involves no resurrection of traditional ways—big productions in theaters for a mass audience—but instead the desperate adoption of the streaming model, the buildup of content libraries, and the launching of subscription channels to see if a spot can be salvaged in this brave new world of computer-generated, home-based, atomized entertainment.
The Crisis Has Demonstrated the Power of Technology to Connect With Audiences
By Audrey Azoulay, the director-general of UNESCO
The pandemic has been devastating for culture and the arts. In the vast majority of the world’s countries, cultural institutions completely or partially shut down, and many remain closed to this day. Some may never open their doors again. An even more urgent issue is that countless artists all over the world have been left without any income. Millions of people have been deprived of revenues from tourism, which depends so heavily on cultural venues and products. The crisis has revealed the deep vulnerability and fragility of our cultural ecosystems.
The world must come together to safeguard our cultural heritage.
But the crisis has also shown us how centrally important culture is for our lives and identities. Culture helps anchor us in the present and allows us to imagine the future. The crisis has also demonstrated the incredible opportunities offered by digital technologies to connect culture with audiences across the world, which will no doubt continue as a major trend moving forward.
In the coming years, it will be crucial to build a viable future for culture and support those involved in its development. In response to the pandemic, UNESCO launched the ResiliArt movement, with almost 150 grass-roots debates organized so far in more than 60 countries.
The world must come together to safeguard our cultural heritage by providing sustainable funding for cultural institutions. We must ensure stable living and working conditions for artists to flourish. And we must allow every person to have access to the full diversity of culture. For culture sparks our imagination and unleashes our creativity to build a better future.
The Film Industry Will Shift to Countries Beating the Pandemic
By Baltasar Kormakur, an Icelandic film director and producer
When the pandemic hit Iceland, I was directing a production for Netflix. After two weeks of being shut down, we convinced them to let us start up again with our own system of safety protocols. We were the guinea pigs to see if it could work. We caught two cases, but had no transmission on the set. I’m convinced that companies like ours that screen and send people to get tested help break the transmission.
There is so much work right now that our problem isn’t the virus; it’s that we can’t find the people we need.
Elsewhere, the industry has been absolutely devastated. Everyone was shut down, from production to the cinemas. How the pandemic will change the industry in the future depends a lot on the country. The film industry in Iceland will grow because of the pandemic. Cases are down, and there is so much work in film right now that our problem isn’t the virus; it’s that we can’t find the people we need. Without question, Iceland will be a winner, along with a few other countries like Germany that have handled the pandemic with a steady hand, led by science, focused on endurance for the long term, and without panic. The way the United States has handled it is still a mess, and it will be much trickier for the film industry there to start up again. I think you’ll see the U.S. film industry produce more in other countries before they can feel safe at home again.
Who Wants to Host Future Olympics?
By David Clay Large, a senior fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the University of California, Berkeley
Tokyo’s 2020 Summer Olympics festival has been postponed until 2021 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. No other modern Olympiad has ever been postponed, but some have been cancelled because of war, including Tokyo’s planned Games in 1940. The Antwerp Olympics of 1920 were held under the lingering effects of the devastating Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19, and they suffered accordingly.
Tokyo has already suffered twice—who wants to be Tokyo Number Three?
It remains unclear whether the postponed Tokyo Games will actually come off in 2021. The pandemic shows no signs of abating, and if conditions continue as they are, the Games are unlikely to be held next summer. Would or could they be postponed again? Not likely, say both Japanese organizers and the mandarins of the International Olympic Committee. Enthusiasm for the extravaganza has already plummeted in Tokyo, and it would be virtually impossible to find a replacement city willing to take the tremendous financial risk. After all, no major athletic event is more dependent on international travel than the Olympics. Basketball and football games are thinkable (if less enjoyable) as television-only events, but the Olympics have been just as much a festival of nationalities among spectators as among the athletes.
Indeed, the longer-term effect of the coronavirus on the Olympics may well be that fewer cities show interest in hosting them. Cities that win this “prize” are likely to make considerably less upfront investment in new infrastructure such as sports venues, hotels, and transportation links than is currently the case. Tokyo has already suffered twice. Who wants to be Tokyo Number Three?
A Golden Age of Museums Has Ended (for Now)
By James S. Snyder, the director emeritus of the Israel Museum in Jerusalem and executive chairman of the Jerusalem Foundation
Before the onset of the pandemic, the international museum community was bursting with strength. A decade of robust philanthropy matched by an impressive record of global cultural diplomacy was enabling museums to present collections, share works, and showcase world culture in unprecedented ways. Audiences around the world became increasingly accustomed to nurturing their souls by enjoying these displays in magnificent settings everywhere.
Nearly 90 percent of the world’s museums have had to close, and reopening them has already proven to be a tremendous challenge.
With COVID-19, this splendor of enlightenment and exchange has come to a screeching halt. Travelers are grounded, crowds cannot congregate, and works of art and other cultural artifacts are frozen in place wherever they may be. According to a recent UNESCO survey, nearly 90 percent of the world’s museums have had to close, at least temporarily, and reopening them has already proven to be a tremendous challenge. Many museums remain closed.
But one by one, museums are testing ways to create a safe visiting experience without hampering the joy they traditionally bring to their audiences. For now, this is about limiting visitor capacity, requiring pre-booking, registering contact information, and ensuring sanitized galleries and public spaces. Going forward, museums will need new strategies for producing and presenting rich programming while no longer being able to rely on the robust attendance figures that have helped enable their success—and for continuing to engage and educate their audiences both on-site and throughout the communities they serve.
For now, what is most important is to keep firmly in mind the individual and communal nourishment that museums provide as we emerge with strength from the darkness of today’s pandemic—and the essential role that museums must continue to play in our lives for a long time to come.
Cricket Will Be as It Was, but the Superpowers Will Be Strengthened
By Rahul Bhatia, a journalist and editor based in Mumbai
Cricket returned in early July, its appearance slightly altered. The grounds were empty. Celebrations were restrained—there were fist bumps, not high-fives. Gone was the age-old practice of shining cricket balls with spit. During tours, players from England, Pakistan, and West Indies lived in “bio-bubbles”—a secure environment. When the pandemic eases, the crowds and the cheers will return to stadiums. For the most part, cricket will be as it was.
The silver lining: renewed calls for player protections in a notoriously unregulated sport.
COVID-19’s legacy will instead live on in the acceleration of the sport’s growing inequalities, especially between the handful of international teams around whom the global game revolves. Cricket has several levels of competition, but international competition is its most important format. Cricket’s superpowers—India, England, and Australia—will accumulate even greater clout, altering cricket in ways that go beyond the game. Smaller international cricketing teams with fewer television revenues, such as West Indies, have had to borrow funds to tide them over the pandemic. Where domestic leagues have been up and running, many players have chosen the smaller but certain payday of club cricket over the financial insecurities of playing for the more prestigious but stressed national team. In the perpetual war over broadcast deals and playing schedules, it easy to imagine the superpowers winning handily, and smaller cricketing nations falling in line.
The concentration of power and influence will have repercussions. Players and staff will be unlikely to air grievances against owners and sponsors. In the short term, both international and domestic players will probably feel the pinch of cancelled and postponed tournaments that helped them get by. The silver lining: Eventually these developments will lead to renewed calls for player protections in a notoriously unregulated sport, including a minimum wage and other forms of welfare.
This article is part of Foreign Policy’s ongoing series about the world after the COVID-19 pandemic. Other installments include:
How the Global Order Will Be Changed Forever by John Allen, Nicholas Burns, Laurie Garrett, Richard N. Haass, G. John Ikenberry, Kishore Mahbubani, Shivshankar Menon, Robin Niblett, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Shannon K. O’Neil, Kori Schake, Stephen M. Walt
How the Economy Will Look After the Pandemic by Joseph E. Stiglitz, Robert J. Shiller, Gita Gopinath, Carmen M. Reinhart, Adam Posen, Eswar Prasad, Adam Tooze, Laura D’Andrea Tyson, Kishore Mahbubani
How Urban Life Will Be Transformed by Richard Florida, Edward Glaeser, Maimunah Mohd Sharif, Kiran Bedi, Thomas J. Campanella, Chan Heng Chee, Dan Doctoroff, Bruce Katz, Rebecca Katz, Joel Kotkin, Robert Muggah, Janette Sadik-Khan
The Future of Government by James Crabtree, Robert D. Kaplan, Robert Muggah, Kumi Naidoo, Shannon K. O’Neil, Adam Posen, Kenneth Roth, Bruce Schneier, Stephen M. Walt, Alexandra Wrage
The Future of Travel by James Fallows, Vivek Wadhwa, Pico Iyer, Rolf Potts, Elizabeth Becker, James Crabtree, Alexandre de Juniac
The Future of Schools and Universities by Arne Duncan, Andreas Schleicher, Mona Mourshed, Jennifer Nuzzo, Ludger Woessmann, Salvatore Babones, Davesh Kapur, Michael D. Smith, Dick Startz


foreignpolicy--2020-08-15--On V-J Day, U.S. Pushes for a Stronger Japanese Military

On V-J Day , U.S. Pushes for a Stronger Japanese Military In the hours before Japan surrendered to end World War II , on Aug. 15 , 1945 , while American bombers blanketed the island with leaflets , an influential coterie of military and civilian leaders was working late into the night to craft U.S. policy for the post-imperial nation .
While crowds jammed into New York ’ s Times Square , the State-War-Navy Coordinating Committee , a precursor to today ’ s National Security Council built to address the postwar occupation of Japan , decided that the nation would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” with militarism “ totally eliminated ” from political life .
Under Gen. Douglas MacArthur , who acted as virtual viceroy during the postwar occupation , the changes were made part of Japan ’ s new constitution , dismantling one of the world ’ s biggest militaries and shuffling the remnants of the defense industry into business conglomerates .
That decision made sense at the time , less than four years after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor , but its impacts are still being felt today , as the United States searches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it push back against a Chinese military whose navy , air force , and missile forces have grown exponentially in the last two decades .
“ Japan is not imperial Japan , ” said Jeffrey Hornung , a political scientist at Rand Corp. who specializes in Japanese security .
“ The things that made sense back in the early 1950s don ’ t make sense anymore because there ’ s no threat that the military is going to take over the government and lead Japan into a war .
The things that made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Two years after the war , U.S. officials were already worrying they ’ d gone too far and thus allowed the creation of the precursors to Japan ’ s Self-Defense Forces that today remain its main military force .
But a lifetime later , Japan ’ s postwar pacifism remains a huge challenge for both U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe .
Trump wants allies like Japan to spend more on defense to acquire higher-end platforms that could help the United States keep the military edge it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is now threatened .
Abe has certainly tried , reinterpreting a constitutional provision to expand Japan ’ s ability to engage in “ collective self-defense , ” which would allow Tokyo to more readily link up with the United States in military action .
He has also sought to deck out the Self-Defense Forces—which spent the Cold War as a second-fiddle adjunct to the U.S. military—with more modern weapons systems .
In 2013 , Abe pushed through a rewrite of Japan ’ s national defense guidelines with an eye to China ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ islands , which stretch away far to the southwest of the Japanese home islands .
That nearby security concern has dictated a lot of Japan ’ s recent modernization : Abe also championed the development of a rapidly deployable amphibious brigade that could defend the Senkakus , in the East China Sea ; placed surface-to-air missiles on the islands ; and refashioned a destroyer as a baby flattop to carry American fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets .
But former officials still aren ’ t sure that Japan has the capability to help out if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home .
That matters to U.S. planners because Washington wants to be able to count on Tokyo ’ s help when it comes to , among other things , Chinese militarization of the South China Sea and its growing efforts to elbow aside India in the Indian Ocean , as well as revamping the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that includes Australia and India .
But Japan has spent so many decades playing in front of the goal that some experts fear it can ’ t move much further afield .
“ They ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet the challenge in the south because they themselves had a legacy posture for the Cold War , ” said Randall Schriver , a former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs during the Trump administration .
“ When you get farther away , it gets more difficult because they weren ’ t built for that.
” Abe is taking steps there , too .
His Liberal Democratic Party has set up a working group that ’ s considering the possibility of adding conventional missile strike capabilities to Japan ’ s arsenal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expand its reach to launch attacks onshore in China .
But Japanese law still prohibits the purchase of full-scale aircraft carriers , intercontinental ballistic missiles , and , of course , nuclear weapons .
Both the Obama and Trump administrations voiced concerns about the slow pace of change in Japan ’ s military upgrades .
Those bilateral tensions are on the rise after Tokyo balked at stationing American missiles that extend beyond Cold War-era treaty limits and suspended the deployment of the Aegis Ashore missile defense system , which could knock down an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ My point to the Japanese is that they ’ re playing with fire if they don ’ t increase their efforts .
They have less margin of security with such a powerful China and the Americans can ’ t shoulder the burden so disproportionately , ” said Elbridge Colby , a former deputy assistant secretary of defense during the Trump administration .
“ Japan can head off problems by spending more on defense.
” Colby is supportive of a Japanese conventional strike capability so long as its integrated with the U.S. architecture ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missile capabilities and other advanced munitions , he believes .
But even Abe can ’ t push string .
Lingering trepidation in Tokyo is due partly to the country ’ s ingrained pacifism , as well as byzantine property rights that give local authorities outsized say in where the military can base troops and weapons .
Like Germany , another U.S. defense partner whose paltry spending has exasperated Washington for years , Japan was seared by the events of 1945 .
“ I do worry that the U.S. pushing too hard , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” said Jessica Lee , a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft ’ s East Asia program .
Consultation with allies , she said , “ is taken as an afterthought.
” Japan traditionally spends 1 percent of GDP on defense , an informal mark set decades ago to placate the then-powerful Japan Socialist Party , and even Abe has not been able to move the needle .
( In contrast , NATO countries are expected to spend double that , while the United States spends about 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lee said a push from Congress to cut the U.S. defense budget could push Japan to compensate .
But Tokyo also has a slow lead time for weapons development , coupled with deep popular skepticism of anything that smacks of militarism , that has frustrated U.S. officials .
“ It ’ s as if you ’ re playing chess , and as you ’ re pondering your first move , your opponent makes three moves , ” said Bruce Klingner , a senior fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ By the time you make your first move , the situation is outdated .
The populace is very wary of any changes to Japan ’ s security posture.
” Trump ’ s campaigning for allies to pay more for U.S. basing has also introduced greater tension into the relationship , as former National Security Advisor John Bolton led a delegation to Japan last year demanding that it quadruple payments for American forces based there , as Foreign Policy first reported in November , amplifying calls made by American policymakers since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are set to meet this fall for burden-sharing talks that experts expect to be contentious—and which may well fail to nudge Japan away from seven decades of pacifism .
“ [ Trump ] sees alliances as a business relationship , in very transactional terms , ” Klingner said .
“ He ’ s seeking to make a profit off of stationing U.S. troops overseas .
”

In the hours before Japan surrendered to end World War II, on Aug. 15, 1945, while American bombers blanketed the island with leaflets, an influential coterie of military and civilian leaders was working late into the night to craft U.S. policy for the post-imperial nation.
In the hours before Japan surrendered to end World War II, on Aug. 15, 1945, while American bombers blanketed the island with leaflets, an influential coterie of military and civilian leaders was working late into the night to craft U.S. policy for the post-imperial nation.
While crowds jammed into New York’s Times Square, the State-War-Navy Coordinating Committee, a precursor to today’s National Security Council built to address the postwar occupation of Japan, decided that the nation would be “completely disarmed and demilitarized,” with militarism “totally eliminated” from political life. Under Gen. Douglas MacArthur, who acted as virtual viceroy during the postwar occupation, the changes were made part of Japan’s new constitution, dismantling one of the world’s biggest militaries and shuffling the remnants of the defense industry into business conglomerates.
That decision made sense at the time, less than four years after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, but its impacts are still being felt today, as the United States searches desperately for stronger security partners to help it push back against a Chinese military whose navy, air force, and missile forces have grown exponentially in the last two decades.
“Japan is not imperial Japan,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a political scientist at Rand Corp. who specializes in Japanese security. “The things that made sense back in the early 1950s don’t make sense anymore because there’s no threat that the military is going to take over the government and lead Japan into a war. The things that made sense in the occupation look antiquated now.”
Two years after the war, U.S. officials were already worrying they’d gone too far and thus allowed the creation of the precursors to Japan’s Self-Defense Forces that today remain its main military force. But a lifetime later, Japan’s postwar pacifism remains a huge challenge for both U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Trump wants allies like Japan to spend more on defense to acquire higher-end platforms that could help the United States keep the military edge it has had in the Pacific since 1943 but which is now threatened. Abe has certainly tried, reinterpreting a constitutional provision to expand Japan’s ability to engage in “collective self-defense,” which would allow Tokyo to more readily link up with the United States in military action. He has also sought to deck out the Self-Defense Forces—which spent the Cold War as a second-fiddle adjunct to the U.S. military—with more modern weapons systems.
In 2013, Abe pushed through a rewrite of Japan’s national defense guidelines with an eye to China’s increasingly brazen incursions into the Senkaku islands, which stretch away far to the southwest of the Japanese home islands. That nearby security concern has dictated a lot of Japan’s recent modernization: Abe also championed the development of a rapidly deployable amphibious brigade that could defend the Senkakus, in the East China Sea; placed surface-to-air missiles on the islands; and refashioned a destroyer as a baby flattop to carry American fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets.
But former officials still aren’t sure that Japan has the capability to help out if a conflict kicks off farther away from home. That matters to U.S. planners because Washington wants to be able to count on Tokyo’s help when it comes to, among other things, Chinese militarization of the South China Sea and its growing efforts to elbow aside India in the Indian Ocean, as well as revamping the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that includes Australia and India. But Japan has spent so many decades playing in front of the goal that some experts fear it can’t move much further afield.
“They’ve had their own realignment within Japan to meet the challenge in the south because they themselves had a legacy posture for the Cold War,” said Randall Schriver, a former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs during the Trump administration. “When you get farther away, it gets more difficult because they weren’t built for that.”
Abe is taking steps there, too. His Liberal Democratic Party has set up a working group that’s considering the possibility of adding conventional missile strike capabilities to Japan’s arsenal, a major move that would potentially expand its reach to launch attacks onshore in China. But Japanese law still prohibits the purchase of full-scale aircraft carriers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and, of course, nuclear weapons.
Both the Obama and Trump administrations voiced concerns about the slow pace of change in Japan’s military upgrades. Those bilateral tensions are on the rise after Tokyo balked at stationing American missiles that extend beyond Cold War-era treaty limits and suspended the deployment of the Aegis Ashore missile defense system, which could knock down an incoming strike from North Korea.
“My point to the Japanese is that they’re playing with fire if they don’t increase their efforts. They have less margin of security with such a powerful China and the Americans can’t shoulder the burden so disproportionately,” said Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense during the Trump administration. “Japan can head off problems by spending more on defense.”
Colby is supportive of a Japanese conventional strike capability so long as its integrated with the U.S. architecture; Japan could helpfully focus on developing anti-ship missile capabilities and other advanced munitions, he believes.
But even Abe can’t push string. Lingering trepidation in Tokyo is due partly to the country’s ingrained pacifism, as well as byzantine property rights that give local authorities outsized say in where the military can base troops and weapons. Like Germany, another U.S. defense partner whose paltry spending has exasperated Washington for years, Japan was seared by the events of 1945.
“I do worry that the U.S. pushing too hard, too quickly without proper consultation could be destabilizing,” said Jessica Lee, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft’s East Asia program. Consultation with allies, she said, “is taken as an afterthought.”
Japan traditionally spends 1 percent of GDP on defense, an informal mark set decades ago to placate the then-powerful Japan Socialist Party, and even Abe has not been able to move the needle. (In contrast, NATO countries are expected to spend double that, while the United States spends about 3 percent of GDP on defense.) Lee said a push from Congress to cut the U.S. defense budget could push Japan to compensate. But Tokyo also has a slow lead time for weapons development, coupled with deep popular skepticism of anything that smacks of militarism, that has frustrated U.S. officials.
“It’s as if you’re playing chess, and as you’re pondering your first move, your opponent makes three moves,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation and a former CIA deputy division chief for Korea. “By the time you make your first move, the situation is outdated. The populace is very wary of any changes to Japan’s security posture.”
Trump’s campaigning for allies to pay more for U.S. basing has also introduced greater tension into the relationship, as former National Security Advisor John Bolton led a delegation to Japan last year demanding that it quadruple payments for American forces based there, as Foreign Policy first reported in November, amplifying calls made by American policymakers since the 1980s. The United States and Japan are set to meet this fall for burden-sharing talks that experts expect to be contentious—and which may well fail to nudge Japan away from seven decades of pacifism.
“[Trump] sees alliances as a business relationship, in very transactional terms,” Klingner said. “He’s seeking to make a profit off of stationing U.S. troops overseas.”


foreignpolicy--2020-08-15--Our Top Weekend Reads

Our Top Weekend Reads

The unrest in Minsk may resemble the Kyiv protests of six years ago—but Belarus is a whole different story .
Meanwhile , by choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate , presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has shown that he will chart his own foreign policy .
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scores a personal victory with the deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates .
1 .
Why Belarus Is Not Ukraine After a sham election last weekend , Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko ’ s grip on power may be slipping in the face of massive popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Ukraine in 2014 , when the Maidan protests toppled the pro-Russian government , but Foreign Policy ’ s Amy Mackinnon explains why Kyiv is an unreliable road map for what ’ s to come .
2 .
Biden ’ s China Policy Can ’ t Help but Be Incoherent One of Joe Biden ’ s virtues is the promise of consistency and prudence where the Trump administration delivers chaos and incompetence .
But despite his reputation as a rational statesman , Biden is set to pursue a China policy full of contradictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In Historic Deal With the UAE , Israel Is the Biggest Winner The Middle East surely stands to gain from any cooling of tensions and constructive diplomacy .
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the Israel-UAE deal ’ s biggest winner , Bilal Y. Saab writes .
4 .
Biden Picks Harris for Veep—and Bush Sr. for Himself When former U.S. President Barack Obama chose Biden to be his vice president , he knew the former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee ’ s foreign-policy experience would come in handy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ running mate , Biden is stating that he doesn ’ t need his own Biden clone , Foreign Policy ’ s James Traub writes .
5 .
Under Cover of Coronavirus , Maduro Is Consolidating Control As hospitals become overrun and confidence in government collapses , Venezuela is bracing for chaos .
But President Nicolás Maduro has been treating this crisis as an opportunity , Joe Parkin Daniels writes .

The unrest in Minsk may resemble the Kyiv protests of six years ago—but Belarus is a whole different story.
The unrest in Minsk may resemble the Kyiv protests of six years ago—but Belarus is a whole different story.
Meanwhile, by choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has shown that he will chart his own foreign policy.
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scores a personal victory with the deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top weekend reads.
A protester walks in front of riot police making a heart gesture with his hands, one of the symbols used by the leading opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, in Minsk, Belarus, on Aug. 9.
After a sham election last weekend, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s grip on power may be slipping in the face of massive popular protests. The situation looks a lot like Ukraine in 2014, when the Maidan protests toppled the pro-Russian government, but Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon explains why Kyiv is an unreliable road map for what’s to come.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (L), chats with his Chinese counterpart Li Yuanchao
One of Joe Biden’s virtues is the promise of consistency and prudence where the Trump administration delivers chaos and incompetence. But despite his reputation as a rational statesman, Biden is set to pursue a China policy full of contradictions, Van Jackson writes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference on a deal to normalize relations with the United Arab Emirates in Jerusalem on Aug. 13.
The Middle East surely stands to gain from any cooling of tensions and constructive diplomacy. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the Israel-UAE deal’s biggest winner, Bilal Y. Saab writes.
U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden in 1987
When former U.S. President Barack Obama chose Biden to be his vice president, he knew the former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s foreign-policy experience would come in handy. But by choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate, Biden is stating that he doesn’t need his own Biden clone, Foreign Policy’s James Traub writes.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
As hospitals become overrun and confidence in government collapses, Venezuela is bracing for chaos. But President Nicolás Maduro has been treating this crisis as an opportunity, Joe Parkin Daniels writes.