foreignpolicy--2020-11-10--Will a Russian-Brokered Deal End the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to a Russian-brokered deal to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict , the NLD claims a major victory in Myanmar ’ s election , and Peru ’ s president is impeached .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced early Tuesday morning that he had signed a deal with Azerbaijan and Russia to end the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh .
In a social media post , Pashinyan said he made the decision based on “ an in-depth analysis of the military situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ painful for me personally and for our people.
” Pashinyan ’ s not-quite-surrender was not enough to placate the thousands of protesters who took to the streets of Armenia ’ s capital Yerevan in shock at his capitulation .
Angry citizens stormed government buildings , some looking for Pashinyan himself , as his nameplate was ripped from his office door .
The move comes after Azerbaijani forces captured the strategic town of Shusha , also known as Shushi , over the weekend , making the de facto Nagorno-Karabkah capital , Stepanakert , extremely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Nagorno-Karabkah region said he had accepted Pashinyan ’ s decision “ to end the war as soon as possible.
” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev confirmed the news while meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin .
Aliyev , who has belittled peace efforts in recent weeks , said the deal was due to Baku ’ s “ iron fist.
” What ’ s in the deal .
As part of the trilateral agreement , both sides agree to halt their advances , which , considering Azerbaijan ’ s gains over recent weeks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ land lost in its conflict with Armenia over two decades ago .
Armenia ’ s military has been ordered to withdraw from the region , with Russian peacekeepers taking their place for a period of five years .
The United Nations will oversee the return to the region of those Azerbaijanis displaced in the 1990s , and Armenia must open a route within the country to allow Azerbaijan access to its Nakhchivan exclave .
Although Turkey—a firm backer of Azerbaijan—is not party to the agreement , it is set to agree today to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to oversee the cease-fire , according to Russian news agency Interfax .
Open wounds .
While this round of conflict only lasted six weeks , the wounds are permanent .
On Nov. 2 , U.N. Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet expressed her concern that war crimes and other crimes against humanity were taking place , citing videos posted on social media and reports of military targeting of civilians .
As neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are parties to the International Criminal Court , any crimes committed in this brief war are likely to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports from Yerevan on renewed fears of ethnic cleansing in the region .
Esper out .
The U.S. Department of Defense has a new leader today after U.S. President Donald Trump fired Secretary of Defense Mark Esper by tweet on Monday .
There were already rumors of Esper ’ s dismissal last week , when news broke that he had already prepared a letter of resignation prior to the presidential election .
Esper is succeeded by Christopher Miller , who is the sixth man to lead the Pentagon under Trump , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capacity .
FP ’ s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer report that Esper may not be the last high-profile name on the chopping block ; CIA Director Gina Haspel may be next .
NLD claim big win in Myanmar .
Aung San Suu Kyi ’ s National League for Democracy has declared a resounding victory in Myanmar ’ s general election , with the party on track to outstrip the 390 upper and lower house seats it won in 2015 .
NLD ’ s claims come from internal party figures , as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to publish official results .
The European Union has congratulated Myanmar on its election while also criticizing the disenfranchisement of up to a million voters , including its Rohingya and Rakhine minorities .
Vizcarra impeached in Peru .
Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra is to leave office after the country ’ s congress successfully impeached him on charges of corruption .
Vizcarra was accused of accepting bribes for public works contracts during his time as a governor .
Although he denies the allegations , he said on Monday that he would “ leave the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the head of the minority party Popular Action , will assume the presidency until a new one is chosen in April 2021 .
No to Joe .
Joe Biden ’ s victory in the U.S. presidential election is already reverberating in Eastern Europe where Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme has been forced to resign from his post after making comments critical of Biden and his son , Hunter .
In a radio interview on Sunday , Helme said that Biden and his son were corrupt .
Helme ’ s son , Martin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also been under fire for criticism of Biden and claiming that last Tuesday ’ s election was rigged .
The younger Helme survived a no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday .
Writing in FP , Amy Mackinnon and Augusta Saraiva run down the list of world leaders who have yet to acknowledge a Biden victory .
Macron wants tougher line on migrants .
A draft declaration from the European Union would call on migrants to learn the local language and support “ the integration of one ’ s children ” in their home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by France , Austria , and Germany and is expected to be made at a meeting of EU home affairs ministers on Friday .
The declaration also calls for putting EU funds toward religious education in Muslim communities .
Other EU governments have expressed apprehension at the proposed statement .
Yutaka Umeda , the mayor of Yamato in Japan ’ s Kumamoto prefecture , has become an overnight celebrity in Japan after it was pointed out that the characters in his name can be pronounced to sound like “ Jo Baiden.
” Umeda @ @ @ @ @ @ @ characters relating to “ plum ” and “ rice field , ” usually pronounced as “ ume ” and “ da , ” but can also pronounced as “ bai ” and “ den.
” The single character for Yutaka is commonly pronounced as “ jo.
” “ It feels as though I ’ ve also won the election , ” Umeda said on Sunday .
Umeda ’ s newfound fame resembles the notoriety enjoyed by the city of Obama , in Fukui prefecture , which received a boost in interest following the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to a Russian-brokered deal to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict , the NLD claims a major victory in Myanmar’s election , and Peru’s president is impeached.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to a Russian-brokered deal to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the NLD claims a major victory in Myanmar’s election, and Peru’s president is impeached.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Under Pressure, Armenia Gives Up the Fight in Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced early Tuesday morning that he had signed a deal with Azerbaijan and Russia to end the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
In a social media post, Pashinyan said he made the decision based on “an in-depth analysis of the military situation” and that it was “unspeakably painful for me personally and for our people.” Pashinyan’s not-quite-surrender was not enough to placate the thousands of protesters who took to the streets of Armenia’s capital Yerevan in shock at his capitulation. Angry citizens stormed government buildings, some looking for Pashinyan himself, as his nameplate was ripped from his office door.
The move comes after Azerbaijani forces captured the strategic town of Shusha, also known as Shushi, over the weekend, making the de facto Nagorno-Karabkah capital, Stepanakert, extremely vulnerable. Arayik Harutyunyan, leader of the Nagorno-Karabkah region said he had accepted Pashinyan’s decision “to end the war as soon as possible.”
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev confirmed the news while meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Aliyev, who has belittled peace efforts in recent weeks, said the deal was due to Baku’s “iron fist.”
What’s in the deal. As part of the trilateral agreement, both sides agree to halt their advances, which, considering Azerbaijan’s gains over recent weeks, effectively hands Azerbaijan back much of the land lost in its conflict with Armenia over two decades ago. Armenia’s military has been ordered to withdraw from the region, with Russian peacekeepers taking their place for a period of five years. The United Nations will oversee the return to the region of those Azerbaijanis displaced in the 1990s, and Armenia must open a route within the country to allow Azerbaijan access to its Nakhchivan exclave.
Although Turkey—a firm backer of Azerbaijan—is not party to the agreement, it is set to agree today to run a joint monitoring center alongside Russia to oversee the cease-fire, according to Russian news agency Interfax.
Open wounds. While this round of conflict only lasted six weeks, the wounds are permanent. On Nov. 2, U.N. Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet expressed her concern that war crimes and other crimes against humanity were taking place, citing videos posted on social media and reports of military targeting of civilians. As neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are parties to the International Criminal Court, any crimes committed in this brief war are likely to go unpunished. In FP, Joshua Kucera reports from Yerevan on renewed fears of ethnic cleansing in the region.
What We’re Following Today
Esper out. The U.S. Department of Defense has a new leader today after U.S. President Donald Trump fired Secretary of Defense Mark Esper by tweet on Monday. There were already rumors of Esper’s dismissal last week, when news broke that he had already prepared a letter of resignation prior to the presidential election. Esper is succeeded by Christopher Miller, who is the sixth man to lead the Pentagon under Trump, and the fourth to do so in an acting capacity. FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer report that Esper may not be the last high-profile name on the chopping block; CIA Director Gina Haspel may be next.
NLD claim big win in Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has declared a resounding victory in Myanmar’s general election, with the party on track to outstrip the 390 upper and lower house seats it won in 2015. NLD’s claims come from internal party figures, as the country’s electoral commission has yet to publish official results. The European Union has congratulated Myanmar on its election while also criticizing the disenfranchisement of up to a million voters, including its Rohingya and Rakhine minorities.
Vizcarra impeached in Peru. Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra is to leave office after the country’s congress successfully impeached him on charges of corruption. Vizcarra was accused of accepting bribes for public works contracts during his time as a governor. Although he denies the allegations, he said on Monday that he would “leave the presidential palace today.” Manuel Merino, the head of the minority party Popular Action, will assume the presidency until a new one is chosen in April 2021.
Keep an Eye On
No to Joe. Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is already reverberating in Eastern Europe where Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme has been forced to resign from his post after making comments critical of Biden and his son, Hunter. In a radio interview on Sunday, Helme said that Biden and his son were corrupt. Helme’s son, Martin, is a member of parliament and had also been under fire for criticism of Biden and claiming that last Tuesday’s election was rigged. The younger Helme survived a no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday. Writing in FP, Amy Mackinnon and Augusta Saraiva run down the list of world leaders who have yet to acknowledge a Biden victory.
Macron wants tougher line on migrants. A draft declaration from the European Union would call on migrants to learn the local language and support “the integration of one’s children” in their home countries. The declaration has been drafted by France, Austria, and Germany and is expected to be made at a meeting of EU home affairs ministers on Friday. The declaration also calls for putting EU funds toward religious education in Muslim communities. Other EU governments have expressed apprehension at the proposed statement.
Odds and Ends
Yutaka Umeda, the mayor of Yamato in Japan’s Kumamoto prefecture, has become an overnight celebrity in Japan after it was pointed out that the characters in his name can be pronounced to sound like “Jo Baiden.” Umeda’s name features the Kanji Chinese characters relating to “plum” and “rice field,” usually pronounced as “ume” and “da,” but can also pronounced as “bai” and “den.” The single character for Yutaka is commonly pronounced as “jo.”
“It feels as though I’ve also won the election,” Umeda said on Sunday. Umeda’s newfound fame resembles the notoriety enjoyed by the city of Obama, in Fukui prefecture, which received a boost in interest following the election of its namesake in 2008.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-10--Switzerland Is Choosing Austerity Over Life

Switzerland has overtaken Belgium and is on pace to surpass Czech Republic as Europe ’ s top COVID-19 hot spot .
Infections are roughly triple the per capita count in Sweden or the United States and double the European Union average .
And this is not due to extensive testing .
Switzerland is on par with the United States and average in Europe with regard to test prevalence .
The country ’ s test-positivity rate stands at a whopping 27.9 percent , compared with 8.5 percent in Sweden and 8.3 percent in the United States .
According to the World @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 percent signals the virus is out of control .
The group of scientific experts advising the Swiss government on the pandemic has been sounding the alarm bell for a while .
Hospitals are projected to run out of ICU capacity by Nov. 13 .
The challenge now is to keep the period of rationing of intensive health care as short as possible , the expert group says .
In normal times , the world ’ s celebrities and politicians , such as former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi , travel to Switzerland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s first-class hospitals .
Now , France is offering to take on Swiss COVID-19 patients to give the country ’ s hospitals some breathing space .
What went amiss in the Alpine country widely famous for its spotless streets and widely recognized for its safety , reliability , and good governance ?
In one sense , the answer is simple : The Swiss government has resisted taking the necessary restrictive measures to contain the virus .
The reasons for that resistance , however , are rather more complicated because the Swiss have long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in purely pragmatic language .
Like Germany , Switzerland emerged relatively unscathed from the first wave in the spring .
A carefully calibrated national lockdown helped contain the virus .
But contrary to Berlin , Bern did not view the success in spring as an encouragement to continue pursuing a cautious course .
Instead , the low first-wave death toll seemed to confirm the widely held perception of Switzerland as a “ special case ” —a unique country divorced from the world ’ s woes .
In the last century , Switzerland never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural catastrophe .
In this century , the Swiss have not experienced a terrorist attack , and their wallets barely suffered from the global financial crisis .
The Alpine country is immune to global crisis—or so the Swiss believe is the lesson from history .
The pandemic seemed to be no different .
Unlike Belgians or the French , the Swiss knew how to manage the virus—at least , that was the mood .
The government marching orders to the Swiss were clear : Let ’ s focus on getting the economy up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wave , Switzerland therefore relaxed COVID-19 measures faster and more than other European countries and the United States .
Bars and clubs once again opened their doors .
There was no obligation to wear masks indoors .
The Swiss tourism promotion agency restarted its campaign on French TV .
As late as Oct. 1 , Bern even lifted a ban on events of more than 1,000 people .
The Swiss spent the beginning of fall living as if nothing happened .
But even now , as the government acknowledges that the health situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t brought itself to impose a “ soft lockdown ” as most European governments have .
Research by Oxford University ’ s Blavatnik School of Government shows that Switzerland ’ s anti-coronavirus measures are still much looser than in the rest of Europe and the United States—and only slightly more restrictive than in Sweden .
One stumbling block is federalism in an already small country .
After the first wave , the federal government has given Switzerland ’ s 26 cantons the competence to introduce their own containment measures .
But these often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an area half the size of Manhattan ) hesitate to take action .
As a local politician , how can you explain to a restaurant owner that he has to close up shop if his colleague living five minutes away by car can still serve ?
And the fact that the cantons are liable for the financial costs of the COVID-19 decisions they take doesn ’ t help either .
But the bigger issue is that taking more restrictive measures doesn ’ t compute with Switzerland ’ s distinct small-government philosophy .
Lacking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to its mountainous topography , the Swiss have traditionally recognized commerce as their only path to prosperity .
The state ’ s constrained role in public life is also the result of the country ’ s creation from a quilt of formerly independent countries .
The prime motivation for these cantons to federate was not brotherly love or building a European nation-state .
It was to prevent getting swept up by one of the continent ’ s empires and to safeguard as much cantonal sovereignty as possible .
In Switzerland , with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , business has thus been king for a long while .
Since 1848 , the federal government in Bern has been dominated by pro-business parties .
There is no minimum wage and little employment protection .
Fiscal federalism fuels fierce tax competition between the cantons .
Government involvement in the economy is generally frowned on .
Today , the Swiss are markedly keen on personal economic initiative .
Sixty-seven percent of Swiss voted against adding two weeks to the statuary holiday entitlement in 2012 .
The country tops the ranking for weekly work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Swiss consistently indicate they are primarily worried about the effects of the pandemic on the economy and not the collapse of the health system .
They say that even though Swiss hospitals are already postponing necessary operations , such as the removal of tumors for cancer patients , to liberate beds for incoming COVID-19 patients .
This penchant for market liberalism , fiscal conservatism , and a strong work ethic may explain the country ’ s resounding economic success and attractiveness to global business .
It also explains why Swiss Finance Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We can ’ t afford a second lockdown .
We don ’ t have the money for it.
” Switzerland ’ s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at just 41 percent in 2019 .
The government estimates that the loss in economic activity and support schemes in the first lockdown will mean the government will have to issue debt worth 22 billion Swiss francs ( 3 percent of national GDP ) .
By comparison , even fiscally frugal Germany is so far set to print debt worth 6.4 percent of GDP in 2020 to finance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Maurer claims that a new lockdown would risk sacrificing the economy and public finances on the altar of health .
There is little pushback in Swiss media or politics against this view .
The job of a finance minister is to keep spending in check , not to fight a pandemic , commentators write .
Meanwhile , no political party or senior political figure has publicly pressured the government to introduce a soft lockdown .
But keeping businesses open and holding the purse strings tight may not only be bad health policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fear of contagion starts to creep in , the Swiss are reducing their social life anyway , mobility data shows—leaving restaurants open but without clients .
There is no trade-off between health and the economy , the Swiss are learning .
Exploding case numbers have not prevented a steep rise in business insolvencies .
In this crisis , one may have to pause life and parts of the economy for a while in order to bounce back stronger and healthier later .
In an open letter , 50 economics professors have pleaded with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soft lockdown .
The government still dithers .
Oscar Wilde observed : “ To do nothing at all is the most difficult thing in the world.
” That ’ s an even steeper challenge for a country that loves to work .

Switzerland has overtaken Belgium and is on pace to surpass Czech Republic as Europe’s top COVID-19 hot spot. Infections are roughly triple the per capita count in Sweden or the United States and double the European Union average. And this is not due to extensive testing. Switzerland is on par with the United States and average in Europe with regard to test prevalence. The country’s test-positivity rate stands at a whopping 27.9 percent, compared with 8.5 percent in Sweden and 8.3 percent in the United States. According to the World Health Organization, a test-positivity rate above 5 percent signals the virus is out of control.
Switzerland has overtaken Belgium and is on pace to surpass Czech Republic as Europe’s top COVID-19 hot spot. Infections are roughly triple the per capita count in Sweden or the United States and double the European Union average. And this is not due to extensive testing. Switzerland is on par with the United States and average in Europe with regard to test prevalence. The country’s test-positivity rate stands at a whopping 27.9 percent, compared with 8.5 percent in Sweden and 8.3 percent in the United States. According to the World Health Organization, a test-positivity rate above 5 percent signals the virus is out of control.
The group of scientific experts advising the Swiss government on the pandemic has been sounding the alarm bell for a while. Hospitals are projected to run out of ICU capacity by Nov. 13. The challenge now is to keep the period of rationing of intensive health care as short as possible, the expert group says.
In normal times, the world’s celebrities and politicians, such as former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, travel to Switzerland to get treated in the country’s first-class hospitals. Now, France is offering to take on Swiss COVID-19 patients to give the country’s hospitals some breathing space.
What went amiss in the Alpine country widely famous for its spotless streets and widely recognized for its safety, reliability, and good governance? In one sense, the answer is simple: The Swiss government has resisted taking the necessary restrictive measures to contain the virus. The reasons for that resistance, however, are rather more complicated because the Swiss have long cloaked the ideological motives informing public policy in purely pragmatic language.
Like Germany, Switzerland emerged relatively unscathed from the first wave in the spring. A carefully calibrated national lockdown helped contain the virus. But contrary to Berlin, Bern did not view the success in spring as an encouragement to continue pursuing a cautious course.
Instead, the low first-wave death toll seemed to confirm the widely held perception of Switzerland as a “special case”—a unique country divorced from the world’s woes. In the last century, Switzerland never lived through a war or a major natural catastrophe. In this century, the Swiss have not experienced a terrorist attack, and their wallets barely suffered from the global financial crisis. The Alpine country is immune to global crisis—or so the Swiss believe is the lesson from history.
The pandemic seemed to be no different. Unlike Belgians or the French, the Swiss knew how to manage the virus—at least, that was the mood. The government marching orders to the Swiss were clear: Let’s focus on getting the economy up and running again.
After the first wave, Switzerland therefore relaxed COVID-19 measures faster and more than other European countries and the United States. Bars and clubs once again opened their doors. There was no obligation to wear masks indoors. The Swiss tourism promotion agency restarted its campaign on French TV. As late as Oct. 1, Bern even lifted a ban on events of more than 1,000 people. The Swiss spent the beginning of fall living as if nothing happened.
But even now, as the government acknowledges that the health situation is critical, it still hasn’t brought itself to impose a “soft lockdown” as most European governments have. Research by Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government shows that Switzerland’s anti-coronavirus measures are still much looser than in the rest of Europe and the United States—and only slightly more restrictive than in Sweden.
One stumbling block is federalism in an already small country. After the first wave, the federal government has given Switzerland’s 26 cantons the competence to introduce their own containment measures. But these often tiny cantons (the smallest just covers an area half the size of Manhattan) hesitate to take action. As a local politician, how can you explain to a restaurant owner that he has to close up shop if his colleague living five minutes away by car can still serve? And the fact that the cantons are liable for the financial costs of the COVID-19 decisions they take doesn’t help either.
But the bigger issue is that taking more restrictive measures doesn’t compute with Switzerland’s distinct small-government philosophy.
Lacking natural resources and little arable farmland due to its mountainous topography, the Swiss have traditionally recognized commerce as their only path to prosperity. The state’s constrained role in public life is also the result of the country’s creation from a quilt of formerly independent countries. The prime motivation for these cantons to federate was not brotherly love or building a European nation-state. It was to prevent getting swept up by one of the continent’s empires and to safeguard as much cantonal sovereignty as possible.
In Switzerland, with a weak central state and dependency on trade, business has thus been king for a long while. Since 1848, the federal government in Bern has been dominated by pro-business parties. There is no minimum wage and little employment protection. Fiscal federalism fuels fierce tax competition between the cantons. Government involvement in the economy is generally frowned on.
Today, the Swiss are markedly keen on personal economic initiative. Sixty-seven percent of Swiss voted against adding two weeks to the statuary holiday entitlement in 2012. The country tops the ranking for weekly work hours in Europe. In polls, the Swiss consistently indicate they are primarily worried about the effects of the pandemic on the economy and not the collapse of the health system. They say that even though Swiss hospitals are already postponing necessary operations, such as the removal of tumors for cancer patients, to liberate beds for incoming COVID-19 patients.
This penchant for market liberalism, fiscal conservatism, and a strong work ethic may explain the country’s resounding economic success and attractiveness to global business.
It also explains why Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer says things like: “We can’t afford a second lockdown. We don’t have the money for it.” Switzerland’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at just 41 percent in 2019. The government estimates that the loss in economic activity and support schemes in the first lockdown will mean the government will have to issue debt worth 22 billion Swiss francs (3 percent of national GDP). By comparison, even fiscally frugal Germany is so far set to print debt worth 6.4 percent of GDP in 2020 to finance the fight against the pandemic.
Still, Maurer claims that a new lockdown would risk sacrificing the economy and public finances on the altar of health. There is little pushback in Swiss media or politics against this view. The job of a finance minister is to keep spending in check, not to fight a pandemic, commentators write. Meanwhile, no political party or senior political figure has publicly pressured the government to introduce a soft lockdown.
But keeping businesses open and holding the purse strings tight may not only be bad health policy but also bad economics. As the fear of contagion starts to creep in, the Swiss are reducing their social life anyway, mobility data shows—leaving restaurants open but without clients. There is no trade-off between health and the economy, the Swiss are learning. Exploding case numbers have not prevented a steep rise in business insolvencies.
In this crisis, one may have to pause life and parts of the economy for a while in order to bounce back stronger and healthier later. In an open letter, 50 economics professors have pleaded with the Swiss government to finally introduce a soft lockdown. The government still dithers. Oscar Wilde observed: “To do nothing at all is the most difficult thing in the world.” That’s an even steeper challenge for a country that loves to work.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-10--The Vaccine News Is Good. Here’s the Bad News.

The Vaccine News Is Good .
Here ’ s the Bad News .
What a difference an election makes .
Stock markets all over the world are soaring , both because Joe Biden has been elected the 46th president of the United States , immediately establishing a prestige-packed COVID-19 task force , and because the New York-based pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced that its candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is 90 percent effective in blocking infection with the coronavirus .
A sense of hope has imbued financial markets .
“ The results are really quite good , I mean extraordinary , ” pronounced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases .
Minutes after New York stock markets opened Monday morning , nearly every index soared to historic heights , with the Dow gaining nearly 3 percent by the end of the day .
Pfizer stocks surged 7.7 percent , and its German vaccine partner , BioNTech , got a 13.9 percent boost .
And it is all , indeed , very good news .
But there are important caveats to consider that should temper the momentary euphoria .
These include the current state of the pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ catastrophic COVID-19 crisis by lame-duck leadership in the White House and health-related agencies , limited information provided regarding the Pfizer vaccine , and doubts about the ability of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to manage a successful rollout of mass immunization across the United States .
While Biden supporters danced in streets across the country following the Nov. 7th announcement that the ticket garnered more than the 270 Electoral College votes required to win the tumultuous election , COVID-19 spread nationwide to historic , tragic levels .
According to Johns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world total of officially tallied cases topped 50 million , with 1 out of every 5 known cases having occurred in the United States .
The United States also accounts for 19 percent of world deaths : 1.3 million have died of COVID-19 , about 240,000 of them in the United States .
These numbers grossly understate the true scale of the United States ’ and the world ’ s coronavirus cases and deaths , but accurately depict the sorrowful trends .
Over the election-tallying weekend , more than 230,000 new COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with Nov. 8 marking the fifth day in a row that new case totals exceeded 100,000 .
As of Monday , a whopping 43 states saw their COVID-19 totals jump more than 10 percent compared with week , with hospitalization rates skyrocketing , as well .
Cases are even climbing unacceptably in states that have had the virus under control for six months : New Jersey , New York , Massachusetts .
Overseas , the COVID-19 crisis is out of control in most of Europe , the United Kingdom , and key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world , the virus ’ rampage is so taxing health facilities that all sorts of nonviral diseases are claiming the lives of hundreds of millions of people who are unable to get care for everything from diabetes to advanced cancer .
If unabated , the pandemic could well surpass the estimated 50 to 75 million lives lost in the flu pandemic of 1918 .
Leaders in several states that had long supported President Donald Trump ’ s opposition to lockdowns are now calling for strict COVID-19 control measures , including mandatory mask-wearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of entertainment .
In medical circles around the world , the mood is decidedly anxious .
And conspiracy theories , opposition to economically painful lockdowns , and anti-vaccine sentiments are rising everywhere .
On Nov. 9 , Biden released the names of a 13-member COVID-19 task force that will lead his administration ’ s response to the pandemic and the seven guiding principles under which they will operate .
But the Trump administration remains in charge of COVID-19 for more than two months , with the virus spreading inside the West Wing of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s lead scientific advisor , Scott Atlas , advocating what amounts to a do-nothing approach to COVID-19 control .
Insiders say a mass exodus is already unfolding as Trump-appointed health officials are sending out their resumes and searching for new jobs—by Thanksgiving , many key posts may be unfilled .
In October , when the United States was seeing 50,000 new cases per day , the cautious Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicted that by around Inauguration Day , deaths could reach 2,200 daily , with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Oct. 22 announcement , the daily infection total has more than doubled , and deaths have risen to more than 1,100 per day .
If these trends go unfettered for more than 70 days , the United States ’ official death tally could top 400,000 around Christmas , deaths might exceed 2,500 a day , and hospital wards across the country will be full .
Meanwhile , the lame-duck leadership at the Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) must swiftly assess data from Pfizer to determine whether the vaccine is indeed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the company claims .
The only public “ data , ” if it can be so dubbed , is found in a corporate press release .
While the FDA and researchers worldwide await further details , the company ’ s numbers are encouraging .
In an ongoing phase-three trial , 38,955 volunteers so far have received two doses of the vaccine .
To date , 94 of them have become infected with SARS-CoV-2 .
Though exact numbers are not provided by Pfizer , the company has said that most of those 94 infections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was “ more than 90 % effective.
” The Phase 3 trial is not over .
More than 4,500 volunteers haven ’ t yet had their second injection , or reached the one-week post immunization time point for COVID testing .
And Pfizer has agreed to keep tracking all of the participants to see whether their immunity holds up for two weeks .
So far , no side effects have been reported .
But let ’ s be clear about what this Pfizer study shows so far : For 90 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposed to a placebo ) , SARS-CoV-2 infection did not occur for a study period of seven days .
Seven days .
Nothing more is known .
If that protection turns out to be durable for , say , a full year , the Pfizer vaccine might be deemed a spectacular success .
But nobody is going to wait a year to find out .
The moment the FDA approves the product , Pfizer says in its press release , “ we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2021.
” If we assume that Pfizer ’ s vaccine is a home run , mass immunization offers huge hurdles .
The product is unlike any vaccine ever used , for any disease .
What is actually injected is messenger RNA ( mRNA ) —the genetic blueprint for protein production—triggering human cells to manufacture millions of copies of the spike protein that protrudes from the surface of SARS-CoV-2 viruses .
As those spike proteins circulate in an immunized person ’ s body , they hopefully make antibodies and other immune system components @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mRNA triggers production of decoys that train the immune system to “ see ” the virus if it arrives in the body and destroy it .
But mRNA is very unstable .
To prevent breakdown , it must be stored right up until the time of injection at a temperature of at least -103 degrees Fahrenheit—well below anything a standard freezer unit can manage .
Few health departments , hospitals , or doctors ’ offices currently have stockpiles of dry ice or ultrafreezers that can manage to consistently hold temperatures that low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ units that can do the job .
Dry ice in coolers could do the job , but the world is facing a shortage in pure carbon dioxide , which becomes dry ice when frozen .
Meanwhile , vaccine opposition runs high across the United States , with polls showing that roughly one-third of Americans would be unwilling to roll up their sleeves for a new coronavirus immunization .
The Biden administration will have to convince a deeply polarized nation to trust the government and get vaccinated .
Few local and state health departments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without substantial federal support , vaccine education , and implementation .
On Oct. 18 , the National Governors Association , which is currently led by Gov .
Andrew Cuomo of New York , posted dozens of logistical questions states have for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ) , which will be in charge of mass immunization , and of the White House .
The organization asked who will pay for purchase of special freezers , teach vaccinators how to do their jobs and conduct mass education to counter anti-vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t yet named his future CDC director .
Morale in the much-maligned agency has reached toxic levels , and the Atlanta-based institution ’ s relationships with state and local health agencies has deteriorated .
The success—or failure—of a mass immunization campaign in the United States will rest squarely on the shoulders of the person who next leads the CDC .
The news of the Pfizer vaccine and Biden COVID-19 task force are reasons for optimism .
But both sources of hope will be sorely challenged in coming months by Trump administration inaction , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a genuine infrastructure across the United States for mass immunization .

What a difference an election makes. Stock markets all over the world are soaring, both because Joe Biden has been elected the 46th president of the United States, immediately establishing a prestige-packed COVID-19 task force , and because the New York-based pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced that its candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is 90 percent effective in blocking infection with the coronavirus. A sense of hope has imbued financial markets.
What a difference an election makes. Stock markets all over the world are soaring, both because Joe Biden has been elected the 46th president of the United States, immediately establishing a prestige-packed COVID-19 task force, and because the New York-based pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced that its candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is 90 percent effective in blocking infection with the coronavirus. A sense of hope has imbued financial markets.
“The results are really quite good, I mean extraordinary,” pronounced Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Minutes after New York stock markets opened Monday morning, nearly every index soared to historic heights, with the Dow gaining nearly 3 percent by the end of the day. Pfizer stocks surged 7.7 percent, and its German vaccine partner, BioNTech, got a 13.9 percent boost.
And it is all, indeed, very good news. But there are important caveats to consider that should temper the momentary euphoria. These include the current state of the pandemic, the ongoing management of the United States’ catastrophic COVID-19 crisis by lame-duck leadership in the White House and health-related agencies, limited information provided regarding the Pfizer vaccine, and doubts about the ability of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to manage a successful rollout of mass immunization across the United States.
While Biden supporters danced in streets across the country following the Nov. 7th announcement that the ticket garnered more than the 270 Electoral College votes required to win the tumultuous election, COVID-19 spread nationwide to historic, tragic levels. According to Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 tracker, the world total of officially tallied cases topped 50 million, with 1 out of every 5 known cases having occurred in the United States. The United States also accounts for 19 percent of world deaths: 1.3 million have died of COVID-19, about 240,000 of them in the United States. These numbers grossly understate the true scale of the United States’ and the world’s coronavirus cases and deaths, but accurately depict the sorrowful trends. Over the election-tallying weekend, more than 230,000 new COVID-19 infections were reported in the United States, with Nov. 8 marking the fifth day in a row that new case totals exceeded 100,000. As of Monday, a whopping 43 states saw their COVID-19 totals jump more than 10 percent compared with week, with hospitalization rates skyrocketing, as well. Cases are even climbing unacceptably in states that have had the virus under control for six months: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts.
Overseas, the COVID-19 crisis is out of control in most of Europe, the United Kingdom, and key countries in the Americas. And throughout the world, the virus’ rampage is so taxing health facilities that all sorts of nonviral diseases are claiming the lives of hundreds of millions of people who are unable to get care for everything from diabetes to advanced cancer. If unabated, the pandemic could well surpass the estimated 50 to 75 million lives lost in the flu pandemic of 1918.
Leaders in several states that had long supported President Donald Trump’s opposition to lockdowns are now calling for strict COVID-19 control measures, including mandatory mask-wearing and closures of many businesses and forms of entertainment. In medical circles around the world, the mood is decidedly anxious. And conspiracy theories, opposition to economically painful lockdowns, and anti-vaccine sentiments are rising everywhere.
On Nov. 9, Biden released the names of a 13-member COVID-19 task force that will lead his administration’s response to the pandemic and the seven guiding principles under which they will operate. But the Trump administration remains in charge of COVID-19 for more than two months, with the virus spreading inside the West Wing of the White House and the president’s lead scientific advisor, Scott Atlas, advocating what amounts to a do-nothing approach to COVID-19 control. Insiders say a mass exodus is already unfolding as Trump-appointed health officials are sending out their resumes and searching for new jobs—by Thanksgiving, many key posts may be unfilled.
In October, when the United States was seeing 50,000 new cases per day, the cautious Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicted that by around Inauguration Day, deaths could reach 2,200 daily, with a cumulative total of 386,000. But since that Oct. 22 announcement, the daily infection total has more than doubled, and deaths have risen to more than 1,100 per day. If these trends go unfettered for more than 70 days, the United States’ official death tally could top 400,000 around Christmas, deaths might exceed 2,500 a day, and hospital wards across the country will be full.
Meanwhile, the lame-duck leadership at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) must swiftly assess data from Pfizer to determine whether the vaccine is indeed safe and 90 percent effective, as the company claims. The only public “data,” if it can be so dubbed, is found in a corporate press release. While the FDA and researchers worldwide await further details, the company’s numbers are encouraging. In an ongoing phase-three trial, 38,955 volunteers so far have received two doses of the vaccine. To date, 94 of them have become infected with SARS-CoV-2. Though exact numbers are not provided by Pfizer, the company has said that most of those 94 infections were placebo recipients and that the vaccine was “more than 90% effective.”
The Phase 3 trial is not over. More than 4,500 volunteers haven’t yet had their second injection, or reached the one-week post immunization time point for COVID testing. And Pfizer has agreed to keep tracking all of the participants to see whether their immunity holds up for two weeks. So far, no side effects have been reported.
But let’s be clear about what this Pfizer study shows so far: For 90 percent of the volunteers who got the vaccine (as opposed to a placebo), SARS-CoV-2 infection did not occur for a study period of seven days.
Seven days. Nothing more is known.
If that protection turns out to be durable for, say, a full year, the Pfizer vaccine might be deemed a spectacular success. But nobody is going to wait a year to find out. The moment the FDA approves the product, Pfizer says in its press release, “we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.”
If we assume that Pfizer’s vaccine is a home run, mass immunization offers huge hurdles. The product is unlike any vaccine ever used, for any disease. What is actually injected is messenger RNA (mRNA)—the genetic blueprint for protein production—triggering human cells to manufacture millions of copies of the spike protein that protrudes from the surface of SARS-CoV-2 viruses. As those spike proteins circulate in an immunized person’s body, they hopefully make antibodies and other immune system components to fight it off. Thus, the mRNA triggers production of decoys that train the immune system to “see” the virus if it arrives in the body and destroy it.
But mRNA is very unstable. To prevent breakdown, it must be stored right up until the time of injection at a temperature of at least -103 degrees Fahrenheit—well below anything a standard freezer unit can manage. Few health departments, hospitals, or doctors’ offices currently have stockpiles of dry ice or ultrafreezers that can manage to consistently hold temperatures that low, and none have piles of portable units that can do the job. Dry ice in coolers could do the job, but the world is facing a shortage in pure carbon dioxide, which becomes dry ice when frozen.
Meanwhile, vaccine opposition runs high across the United States, with polls showing that roughly one-third of Americans would be unwilling to roll up their sleeves for a new coronavirus immunization. The Biden administration will have to convince a deeply polarized nation to trust the government and get vaccinated. Few local and state health departments have the capacity to carry out immunization without substantial federal support, vaccine education, and implementation.
On Oct. 18, the National Governors Association, which is currently led by Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, posted dozens of logistical questions states have for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which will be in charge of mass immunization, and of the White House. The organization asked who will pay for purchase of special freezers, teach vaccinators how to do their jobs and conduct mass education to counter anti-vaccine rhetoric.
Meanwhile, Biden hasn’t yet named his future CDC director. Morale in the much-maligned agency has reached toxic levels, and the Atlanta-based institution’s relationships with state and local health agencies has deteriorated. The success—or failure—of a mass immunization campaign in the United States will rest squarely on the shoulders of the person who next leads the CDC.
The news of the Pfizer vaccine and Biden COVID-19 task force are reasons for optimism. But both sources of hope will be sorely challenged in coming months by Trump administration inaction, soaring COVID-19 infections, and the lack of a genuine infrastructure across the United States for mass immunization.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-11--How Brazil and Mexico Will Come to Terms With the Biden Presidency

How Brazil and Mexico Will Come to Terms With the Biden Presidency This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
After the Electoral College math became clear on Saturday , congratulations for U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris came pouring in from around Latin America .
However , the region ’ s two largest countries—Brazil and Mexico—remain conspicuous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s victory , Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador find themselves in the dubious company of Russian President Vladimir Putin , Chinese President Xi Jinping , and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan .
In many ways , Bolsonaro and López Obrador had the most at stake in President Donald Trump ’ s reelection among Latin American leaders .
Bolsonaro has embraced the moniker “ Trump of the Tropics , ” while López Obrador has found a modus vivendi with Trump ’ s transactional foreign policy .
Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two most notable populists , bringing them in from the diplomatic cold during some of their darkest hours .
When Bolsonaro faced an onslaught of criticism from world leaders over a series of destructive Amazon fires , for instance , Trump offered his “ full and complete support ” for Bolsonaro ’ s environmental record .
Bolsonaro , who has barnacled himself to Trump , has elided any mention of the U.S. election in the past days .
On the other hand , three of his sons , all politicians who have prominent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confabulations about election fraud and questioned the legitimacy of Brazil ’ s own electronic voting system .
Recently , Eduardo Bolsonaro , the president ’ s third son , complained of a left-wing conspiracy when news organizations refused to give credence to Trump ’ s false claims that victory had been stolen from him .
Meanwhile , López Obrador has said explicitly that he will await the resolution of all legal challenges before congratulating the winner .
Although some observers on both sides of the border portrayed his move as a profile in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exercised neither prudence nor restraint when he moved to quickly congratulate Evo Morales of Bolivia after last year ’ s presidential election rife with ( highly credible ) claims of fraud .
After all , this is a man who , on his defeat in elections in 2006 , accused the winner , Felipe Calderón , of rigging the vote .
He even held a faux inauguration in Mexico City attended by some 100,000 people to herald the start of his “ parallel government.
” The politician ’ s profile grew to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the presidency , until eventually winning in 2018 .
Of course , both leaders will eventually have to come to terms with the Biden presidency .
The risk of being orphaned in the Americas is too great .
Bolsonaro may find it necessary to recalibrate his policies , especially on the environment , if he wants to continue Brazil ’ s foreign-policy realignment toward the United States .
Then again , the enduring appeal of Trump ’ s brand , coupled with what Trump has painted as Biden ’ s narrow margin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he prepares for his own reelection in 2022 .
The longer López Obrador holds out , the more he risks damaging the bipartisan goodwill of the U.S.-Mexican relationship .
Unnecessary tension is not how he should want to start Mexico ’ s relationship with the Biden administration , especially with so much at stake for his anti-corruption plan and the continued implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement , the Trump administration ’ s replacement for NAFTA .
It may be too early to draw definitive answers on what this means for the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the silence from Brasília and Mexico City is deafening .

After the Electoral College math became clear on Saturday, congratulations for U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris came pouring in from around Latin America. However, the region’s two largest countries—Brazil and Mexico—remain conspicuous holdouts. In declining to recognize Biden’s victory, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador find themselves in the dubious company of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
After the Electoral College math became clear on Saturday, congratulations for U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris came pouring in from around Latin America. However, the region’s two largest countries—Brazil and Mexico—remain conspicuous holdouts. In declining to recognize Biden’s victory, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador find themselves in the dubious company of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In many ways, Bolsonaro and López Obrador had the most at stake in President Donald Trump’s reelection among Latin American leaders. Bolsonaro has embraced the moniker “Trump of the Tropics,” while López Obrador has found a modus vivendi with Trump’s transactional foreign policy. Trump provided cover to the region’s two most notable populists, bringing them in from the diplomatic cold during some of their darkest hours. When Bolsonaro faced an onslaught of criticism from world leaders over a series of destructive Amazon fires, for instance, Trump offered his “full and complete support” for Bolsonaro’s environmental record.
Bolsonaro, who has barnacled himself to Trump, has elided any mention of the U.S. election in the past days. On the other hand, three of his sons, all politicians who have prominent roles in his administration, have tweeted confabulations about election fraud and questioned the legitimacy of Brazil’s own electronic voting system. Recently, Eduardo Bolsonaro, the president’s third son, complained of a left-wing conspiracy when news organizations refused to give credence to Trump’s false claims that victory had been stolen from him.
Meanwhile, López Obrador has said explicitly that he will await the resolution of all legal challenges before congratulating the winner. Although some observers on both sides of the border portrayed his move as a profile in prudence and restraint, the Mexican president exercised neither prudence nor restraint when he moved to quickly congratulate Evo Morales of Bolivia after last year’s presidential election rife with (highly credible) claims of fraud. After all, this is a man who, on his defeat in elections in 2006, accused the winner, Felipe Calderón, of rigging the vote. He even held a faux inauguration in Mexico City attended by some 100,000 people to herald the start of his “parallel government.” The politician’s profile grew to the point that he became a perennial contender for the presidency, until eventually winning in 2018.
Of course, both leaders will eventually have to come to terms with the Biden presidency. The risk of being orphaned in the Americas is too great. Bolsonaro may find it necessary to recalibrate his policies, especially on the environment, if he wants to continue Brazil’s foreign-policy realignment toward the United States. Then again, the enduring appeal of Trump’s brand, coupled with what Trump has painted as Biden’s narrow margin of victory, may embolden Bolsonaro as he prepares for his own reelection in 2022.
The longer López Obrador holds out, the more he risks damaging the bipartisan goodwill of the U.S.-Mexican relationship. Unnecessary tension is not how he should want to start Mexico’s relationship with the Biden administration, especially with so much at stake for his anti-corruption plan and the continued implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the Trump administration’s replacement for NAFTA.
It may be too early to draw definitive answers on what this means for the future of U.S.-Brazilian and U.S.-Mexican relations, but the silence from Brasília and Mexico City is deafening.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-10--The World Calls Biden, While Trump and Company Double Down

The World Calls Biden , While Trump and Company Double Down In the days since Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election , President Donald Trump ’ s Twitter feed has become a stream of baseless claims about “ MASSIVE BALLOT COUNTING ABUSE ” and “ illegal ” election procedures .
But as the Trump administration refuses to concede the election , despite no evidence of voter fraud , many of the world ’ s leaders—some with relief , others with reluctance—are coming to grips with the reality of an incoming Biden administration .
All of America ’ s major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win , and even holdouts , like Saudi Arabia and Turkey , finally crunched the numbers and offered their best wishes to the president-elect .
Only a handful of countries including Mexico and Russia still resist .
But just because the world has recognized Biden ’ s resounding win doesn ’ t mean Trump officials will .
From the State Department podium on Tuesday , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to bow to reality , saying “ there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.
” The comment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and widespread condemnation for the damage it did and will do to America ’ s efforts to promote free elections at home and overseas .
Meanwhile , on Tuesday , British Prime Minister Boris Johnson , French President Emmanuel Macron , and German Chancellor Angela Merkel each called the future U.S. president to congratulate him , and each spoke about shared challenges , including battling the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change , both of which the Trump administration largely ignored .
In their calls , all three European leaders also stressed the need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Notable in the conversations was the emphasis on traditional U.S. security goals .
Macron spoke with Biden about Africa and Middle East policy and the fight against terrorism , while Merkel and Biden discussed strengthening ties through NATO and the European Union .
Meanwhile , Johnson spoke with Biden about “ the close and longstanding relationship between our countries and committed to building on this partnership in the years ahead , in areas such as trade and security , ” said a Downing Street spokesperson .
And Johnson said in a tweet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the partnership between our countries ” and working with Biden on , among other things , “ promoting democracy.
” In any other year , such conversations would be pro forma , but Johnson ’ s call in particular marks an ebbing tide among Trump ’ s counterparts abroad .
Trump ’ s relationship with Macron deteriorated over the past several years , and that with Merkel had always been strained .
But Johnson is considered an ally of Trump ; Biden has even called him a Trump “ clone.
” The phone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chasm between the reality of the U.S. election results—and the world ’ s recognition of them—and the Trump administration ’ s false claims not just of voter fraud , but of victory .
Indeed , Pompeo ’ s assertion of a “ smooth transition ” came right after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Trump ’ s legal challenges to the election—which experts say are more bluster than anything else—and as Attorney General Bill Barr gave federal prosecutors the authority to investigate voter fraud claims on Monday .
Biden , meanwhile , chuckled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” when asked about Pompeo ’ s assertions .
The question now is how long the administration will continue along this path , while the world not only acknowledges but also begins to work with an incoming Biden administration .
But Trump isn ’ t entirely isolated on the world stage .
Some world leaders have yet to weigh in .
In addition to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro—like Trump , a willing victim of the coronavirus—Russian President Vladimir Putin has also left the phone off the hook .

In the days since Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election, President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed has become a stream of baseless claims about “MASSIVE BALLOT COUNTING ABUSE” and “illegal” election procedures. But as the Trump administration refuses to concede the election, despite no evidence of voter fraud, many of the world’s leaders—some with relief, others with reluctance—are coming to grips with the reality of an incoming Biden administration.
In the days since Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election, President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed has become a stream of baseless claims about “MASSIVE BALLOT COUNTING ABUSE” and “illegal” election procedures. But as the Trump administration refuses to concede the election, despite no evidence of voter fraud, many of the world’s leaders—some with relief, others with reluctance—are coming to grips with the reality of an incoming Biden administration.
All of America’s major allies have congratulated Biden on his election win, and even holdouts, like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, finally crunched the numbers and offered their best wishes to the president-elect. Only a handful of countries including Mexico and Russia still resist.
But just because the world has recognized Biden’s resounding win doesn’t mean Trump officials will. From the State Department podium on Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to bow to reality, saying “there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.” The comment, possibly made in jest, drew immediate and widespread condemnation for the damage it did and will do to America’s efforts to promote free elections at home and overseas.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel each called the future U.S. president to congratulate him, and each spoke about shared challenges, including battling the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, both of which the Trump administration largely ignored.
In their calls, all three European leaders also stressed the need to ensure a sustainable global economic recovery. Notable in the conversations was the emphasis on traditional U.S. security goals. Macron spoke with Biden about Africa and Middle East policy and the fight against terrorism, while Merkel and Biden discussed strengthening ties through NATO and the European Union.
Meanwhile, Johnson spoke with Biden about “the close and longstanding relationship between our countries and committed to building on this partnership in the years ahead, in areas such as trade and security,” said a Downing Street spokesperson. And Johnson said in a tweet that he looks forward to “strengthening the partnership between our countries” and working with Biden on, among other things, “promoting democracy.”
In any other year, such conversations would be pro forma, but Johnson’s call in particular marks an ebbing tide among Trump’s counterparts abroad. Trump’s relationship with Macron deteriorated over the past several years, and that with Merkel had always been strained. But Johnson is considered an ally of Trump; Biden has even called him a Trump “clone.” The phone call today is further evidence of the chasm between the reality of the U.S. election results—and the world’s recognition of them—and the Trump administration’s false claims not just of voter fraud, but of victory.
Indeed, Pompeo’s assertion of a “smooth transition” came right after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Trump’s legal challenges to the election—which experts say are more bluster than anything else—and as Attorney General Bill Barr gave federal prosecutors the authority to investigate voter fraud claims on Monday.
Biden, meanwhile, chuckled and said there was “no evidence” when asked about Pompeo’s assertions. The question now is how long the administration will continue along this path, while the world not only acknowledges but also begins to work with an incoming Biden administration.
But Trump isn’t entirely isolated on the world stage. Some world leaders have yet to weigh in. In addition to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro—like Trump, a willing victim of the coronavirus—Russian President Vladimir Putin has also left the phone off the hook.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-10--Why Did the United States Take China’s Word on Supposed Uighur Terrorists?

Why Did the United States Take China ’ s Word on Supposed Uighur Terrorists ?
On Oct. 20 , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quietly entered into the Federal Register that the United States no longer recognized the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement ( ETIM ) as a “ terrorist organization.
” China , which portrays ETIM as part of the supposed Uighur terrorist threat that justifies its brutal crackdown in Xinjiang , immediately complained bitterly .
Eighteen years ago , on Aug. 19 , 2002 , then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage designated ETIM as a terrorist organization in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , both moves were fundamentally similar ; they were not motivated by ETIM ’ s reality but instead were largely about the U.S. position on other issues .
The reality of ETIM itself , and of the original listing , is complicated and political .
As I explore in my recent book , no group ever called itself ETIM , but the name has become associated with a small group of Uighurs who came to Afghanistan in 1998 with the intent of launching a religiously inspired insurgency against Chinese rule .
The leader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traveled to both Saudi Arabia and Turkey after leaving China in late 1997 in an attempt to get the support of these countries ’ respective Uighur diasporas for this plan , but he found little to no support .
Nonetheless , he set out to Afghanistan with a handful of other Uighurs to realize his dream .
Mahsum was a religious nationalist inspired by indigenous anti-colonial Islamic ideas , but he was neither a Salafist nor a proponent of global jihadism .
While in Afghanistan , he had strained relations with both al @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Osama bin Laden at least once , but he could not convince bin Laden of the importance of the Uighur cause .
The Taliban initially allowed his group to settle in Afghanistan , but they also fulfilled promises to China ’ s Ministry of Foreign Affairs not to allow the group to pose any threat to China .
As a result , by 2000 , Mahsum and a small group of like-minded Uighur refugees in the country were quarantined in Kabul , where the Taliban could watch and control their actions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ under-resourced group ever instigated violence inside China or anywhere in the world .
Its existence would have been a mostly unknown footnote in Uighur history were it not for the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the advent of what U.S. officials dubbed the “ global war on terror.
” During the decade prior to the 9/11 attacks , the Chinese state had become increasingly concerned with the loyalty of its Uighur population , especially in the context of the dissolution of the Soviet Union along national lines .
This led to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so-called separatists , which became a label for any Uighur demonstrating national pride that could lead to calls for self-determination .
At the same time , ideas about self-determination were growing in the region as Uighurs looked enviously at the newly established sovereignty of Central Asian peoples in the former Soviet Union .
At times , this growing tension between the state and its Uighur citizens even became violent as peaceful protests were met by state violence and growing police and security scrutiny of Uighurs resulted in spontaneous violent outbursts of retaliation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violence showed signs of an organized violent resistance movement within the Uighur population or of connections to external militant groups .
At the same time , China was frustrated by criticism from the United States and Europe over its treatment of Uighurs and Tibetans , suspected of being a separatist threat that could lead China toward the fate of the Soviet Union .
In the frenzied Islamophobia that followed the U.S. declaration of the “ war on terror , ” the Chinese government saw an opportunity to alter the international perception of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it could rebrand what it considered a threat of Uighur “ separatism ” as an international “ terrorist threat , ” it could effectively deflect international criticism of its repressive policies toward Uighurs by legitimizing them as part of the now internationally supported assault on Islamic terrorists .
As a result , almost immediately after the U.S. declared its new anti-terrorism focus , China began lobbying both at the United Nations and in its bilateral discussions with the United States and Europe to have Uighurs included in the ranks of populations linked with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its claims , it produced a white paper outlining the threat posed by a nebulous umbrella group called the “ Eastern Turkistan Terrorist Forces ” that allegedly involved virtually every Uighur advocacy group in the world conspiring with al Qaeda and the Taliban .
In a second white paper , Beijing asserted that this nebulous alliance of disparate forces was responsible for over 200 terrorist attacks during the 1990s in China , leading to 162 deaths and 440 serious injuries .
In reality , almost all of these violent incidents were spontaneous clashes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security forces , not premeditated terrorist attacks .
Most other states , and most notably the United States , dismissed these claims .
In October 2001 , U.S. President George W. Bush stated at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that China should not use the “ war on terrorism ” as an “ excuse to persecute minorities , ” and U.S. State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism Francis Taylor made similar comments while in Beijing to meet with Chinese counterparts in December of that year .
In March 2002 , Lorne Craner , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be even more forceful in noting that China had “ chosen to label all of those who advocate greater freedom in [ Xinjiang ] , near as I can tell , as terrorists .
And we don ’ t think that ’ s correct.
” However , by August 2002 , U.S. receptiveness to China ’ s claims about a Uighur terrorist threat suddenly changed when Armitage entered into the Federal Register that one Uighur group , the virtually unknown ETIM , was in fact a terrorist organization .
In doing so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been responsible for the over 200 terrorist attacks , 162 deaths , and 440 serious injuries during the 1990s that China had attributed to myriad Uighur groups .
In September 2002 , the United States also helped China in getting ETIM recognized on the U.N. Security Council ’ s important Consolidated List of terrorist organizations .
While the United States suggested that these actions were taken as a result of newly available intelligence information , it still refuses to publicly release the content or origins of that intelligence .
Given the timing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already dubious claims as entirely ETIM ’ s work , this is very likely to have been an entirely political decision motivated by the desire of the United States to get the Beijing ’ s cooperation in its new military campaigns , and especially its acquiescence on the U.N. Security Council for the already planned U.S. invasion of Iraq not long after .
In the meantime , those associated with ETIM had fled Afghanistan during the U.S. bombing .
Some were killed in the bombing and others were sold by bounty hunters to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guantánamo Bay .
Mahsum and a handful of his followers fled to Pakistan , from where he called Radio Free Asia ’ s Uighur service in January 2002 to condemn the 9/11 attacks and to deny that his group had been assisted by either al Qaeda or the Taliban .
In October 2003 , Pakistani forces found Mahsum and killed him .
His organization , if it can be called that , appears to have died with him , albeit that it lingered on many international terrorist lists .
Very little was heard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when an entirely different group , the Turkistan Islamic Party ( TIP ) , threatened to attack the Beijing Olympics in an internet video .
TIP claimed to have inherited the mantle of Mahsum ’ s group under a different name , an assertion welcomed by both Western terrorism analysts and the Chinese state , which could now claim that ETIM was alive and still dangerous .
While TIP ’ s history is beyond the scope of this essay , it is important to note that there is no evidence that this group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has ever orchestrated violence inside China .
But when conflated with ETIM , it has served as a useful justification for the state ’ s mass atrocities against the Uighur people in recent years .
While Pompeo ’ s recent action to delist the long-defunct ETIM as a terrorist organization is likely motivated more by the escalating U.S. conflict with China than by any new intelligence , it does remove a dark cloud that has hung over the long-suffering Uighur people since 2002 .
As such , it reminds me of the wishes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interviewed in Albania in 2012 .
He was 18 years old when he arrived in Afghanistan on Sept. 12 , 2001 , intending to travel overland to Turkey .
On fleeing to Pakistan after the U.S. bombing began , he was captured and sold by bounty hunters , and was subsequently held at Guantánamo Bay for four years until he was absolved of being a terrorist .
I asked him what he wanted from the American people for this mistake , and he answered that he only wanted an apology for what had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pompeo ’ s action , despite being imperfect and politically motivated , may be as close as he will get .

On Oct. 20, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quietly entered into the Federal Register that the United States no longer recognized the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) as a “terrorist organization.” China, which portrays ETIM as part of the supposed Uighur terrorist threat that justifies its brutal crackdown in Xinjiang, immediately complained bitterly. Eighteen years ago, on Aug. 19, 2002, then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage designated ETIM as a terrorist organization in a similar manner. Despite being complete opposites, both moves were fundamentally similar; they were not motivated by ETIM’s reality but instead were largely about the U.S. position on other issues.
On Oct. 20, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quietly entered into the Federal Register that the United States no longer recognized the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) as a “terrorist organization.” China, which portrays ETIM as part of the supposed Uighur terrorist threat that justifies its brutal crackdown in Xinjiang, immediately complained bitterly. Eighteen years ago, on Aug. 19, 2002, then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage designated ETIM as a terrorist organization in a similar manner. Despite being complete opposites, both moves were fundamentally similar; they were not motivated by ETIM’s reality but instead were largely about the U.S. position on other issues.
The reality of ETIM itself, and of the original listing, is complicated and political. As I explore in my recent book, no group ever called itself ETIM, but the name has become associated with a small group of Uighurs who came to Afghanistan in 1998 with the intent of launching a religiously inspired insurgency against Chinese rule. The leader of this group, Hasan Mahsum, traveled to both Saudi Arabia and Turkey after leaving China in late 1997 in an attempt to get the support of these countries’ respective Uighur diasporas for this plan, but he found little to no support. Nonetheless, he set out to Afghanistan with a handful of other Uighurs to realize his dream.
Mahsum was a religious nationalist inspired by indigenous anti-colonial Islamic ideas, but he was neither a Salafist nor a proponent of global jihadism. While in Afghanistan, he had strained relations with both al Qaeda and the Taliban. He met with Osama bin Laden at least once, but he could not convince bin Laden of the importance of the Uighur cause. The Taliban initially allowed his group to settle in Afghanistan, but they also fulfilled promises to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs not to allow the group to pose any threat to China. As a result, by 2000, Mahsum and a small group of like-minded Uighur refugees in the country were quarantined in Kabul, where the Taliban could watch and control their actions.
There is no evidence that this small under-resourced group ever instigated violence inside China or anywhere in the world. Its existence would have been a mostly unknown footnote in Uighur history were it not for the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the advent of what U.S. officials dubbed the “global war on terror.”
During the decade prior to the 9/11 attacks, the Chinese state had become increasingly concerned with the loyalty of its Uighur population, especially in the context of the dissolution of the Soviet Union along national lines. This led to state campaigns to find and neutralize Uighur so-called separatists, which became a label for any Uighur demonstrating national pride that could lead to calls for self-determination. At the same time, ideas about self-determination were growing in the region as Uighurs looked enviously at the newly established sovereignty of Central Asian peoples in the former Soviet Union.
At times, this growing tension between the state and its Uighur citizens even became violent as peaceful protests were met by state violence and growing police and security scrutiny of Uighurs resulted in spontaneous violent outbursts of retaliation and revenge. However, none of this violence showed signs of an organized violent resistance movement within the Uighur population or of connections to external militant groups.
At the same time, China was frustrated by criticism from the United States and Europe over its treatment of Uighurs and Tibetans, suspected of being a separatist threat that could lead China toward the fate of the Soviet Union.
In the frenzied Islamophobia that followed the U.S. declaration of the “war on terror,” the Chinese government saw an opportunity to alter the international perception of its treatment of Uighurs at least. If it could rebrand what it considered a threat of Uighur “separatism” as an international “terrorist threat,” it could effectively deflect international criticism of its repressive policies toward Uighurs by legitimizing them as part of the now internationally supported assault on Islamic terrorists.
As a result, almost immediately after the U.S. declared its new anti-terrorism focus, China began lobbying both at the United Nations and in its bilateral discussions with the United States and Europe to have Uighurs included in the ranks of populations linked with the international terrorist threat.
To support its claims, it produced a white paper outlining the threat posed by a nebulous umbrella group called the “Eastern Turkistan Terrorist Forces” that allegedly involved virtually every Uighur advocacy group in the world conspiring with al Qaeda and the Taliban. In a second white paper, Beijing asserted that this nebulous alliance of disparate forces was responsible for over 200 terrorist attacks during the 1990s in China, leading to 162 deaths and 440 serious injuries. In reality, almost all of these violent incidents were spontaneous clashes between Uighurs and the police or state security forces, not premeditated terrorist attacks.
Most other states, and most notably the United States, dismissed these claims. In October 2001, U.S. President George W. Bush stated at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that China should not use the “war on terrorism” as an “excuse to persecute minorities,” and U.S. State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism Francis Taylor made similar comments while in Beijing to meet with Chinese counterparts in December of that year. In March 2002, Lorne Craner, then a U.S. assistant secretary of state, would be even more forceful in noting that China had “chosen to label all of those who advocate greater freedom in [Xinjiang], near as I can tell, as terrorists. And we don’t think that’s correct.”
However, by August 2002, U.S. receptiveness to China’s claims about a Uighur terrorist threat suddenly changed when Armitage entered into the Federal Register that one Uighur group, the virtually unknown ETIM, was in fact a terrorist organization. In doing so, it also claimed ETIM alone had been responsible for the over 200 terrorist attacks, 162 deaths, and 440 serious injuries during the 1990s that China had attributed to myriad Uighur groups. In September 2002, the United States also helped China in getting ETIM recognized on the U.N. Security Council’s important Consolidated List of terrorist organizations.
While the United States suggested that these actions were taken as a result of newly available intelligence information, it still refuses to publicly release the content or origins of that intelligence. Given the timing and the mistaken description of China’s already dubious claims as entirely ETIM’s work, this is very likely to have been an entirely political decision motivated by the desire of the United States to get the Beijing’s cooperation in its new military campaigns, and especially its acquiescence on the U.N. Security Council for the already planned U.S. invasion of Iraq not long after.
In the meantime, those associated with ETIM had fled Afghanistan during the U.S. bombing. Some were killed in the bombing and others were sold by bounty hunters to the U.S. military and ended up in Guantánamo Bay. Mahsum and a handful of his followers fled to Pakistan, from where he called Radio Free Asia’s Uighur service in January 2002 to condemn the 9/11 attacks and to deny that his group had been assisted by either al Qaeda or the Taliban. In October 2003, Pakistani forces found Mahsum and killed him. His organization, if it can be called that, appears to have died with him, albeit that it lingered on many international terrorist lists.
Very little was heard about the phantom ETIM again until 2008 when an entirely different group, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), threatened to attack the Beijing Olympics in an internet video. TIP claimed to have inherited the mantle of Mahsum’s group under a different name, an assertion welcomed by both Western terrorism analysts and the Chinese state, which could now claim that ETIM was alive and still dangerous. While TIP’s history is beyond the scope of this essay, it is important to note that there is no evidence that this group, while prolific internet video makers, has ever orchestrated violence inside China. But when conflated with ETIM, it has served as a useful justification for the state’s mass atrocities against the Uighur people in recent years.
While Pompeo’s recent action to delist the long-defunct ETIM as a terrorist organization is likely motivated more by the escalating U.S. conflict with China than by any new intelligence, it does remove a dark cloud that has hung over the long-suffering Uighur people since 2002. As such, it reminds me of the wishes of one Uighur former Guantánamo detainee I interviewed in Albania in 2012. He was 18 years old when he arrived in Afghanistan on Sept. 12, 2001, intending to travel overland to Turkey. On fleeing to Pakistan after the U.S. bombing began, he was captured and sold by bounty hunters, and was subsequently held at Guantánamo Bay for four years until he was absolved of being a terrorist. I asked him what he wanted from the American people for this mistake, and he answered that he only wanted an apology for what had happened to him. For now, Pompeo’s action, despite being imperfect and politically motivated, may be as close as he will get.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-10--Armenians Rage Against Last-Minute Peace Deal

YEREVAN , Armenia—In a night of passion , protest , and anguish , demonstrators took to the streets early Tuesday to excoriate the peace deal announced overnight by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that ended a six-week war and a decadeslong dispute over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh .
The deal , announced discreetly in a 2 a.m. Facebook post , came as a surprise to many , with sources in the government of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region saying they had no prior knowledge of it .
The Russian-brokered cease-fire and peace agreement will see Azerbaijan , which had pummeled the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep some of its recent territorial gains—sparking dismay among a population that had vowed to keep fighting .
The region has been internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory , but its population is predominantly Armenian , and Armenia considers it an independent state .
People spilled into the streets of the Armenian capital of Yerevan in the wee hours of the morning , storming both Pashinyan ’ s official residence and the parliament , while an angry mob beat parliamentary Speaker Ararat Mirzoyan so badly he required minor surgery .
Demonstrators ransacked the parliament @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nikol betrayed us.
” In a uniquely 2020 moment , protesters lobbed hand sanitizer to each other from the parliamentary benches .
“ I am empty inside , ” a resident of the enclave ’ s de facto capital of Stepanakert , who asked not to be named , said on Tuesday morning .
Fighting erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the end of September and has since left at least 1,300 Armenians dead .
( Azerbaijan does not release casualty figures . )
In a country of less than 3 million people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the horrors brought by six weeks of intense fighting during which both sides have been accused of war crimes .
In what Pashinyan called a “ very hard ” decision , a cease-fire was agreed to and implemented early Tuesday , with hundreds of Russian peacekeeping forces quickly dispatched to the enclave .
The agreement followed a string of Azerbaijani military victories ( bolstered by modern weaponry from Turkey and Israel ) , and the Nagorno-Karabakh region ’ s leader , Arayik Harutyunyan , said that the deal had become unavoidable .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the streets overnight , read the outcome as a victory for Azerbaijan and a defeat for Armenia .
Azerbaijan will be allowed to keep areas taken in the recent fighting , while Armenia has agreed to withdraw from several other adjacent areas over the coming weeks .
Residents of Baku , the capital of Azerbaijan , celebrated in traditional fashion , kicking off what one local vowed would be “ three days and three nights of partying.
” Meanwhile , Armenians drowned their sorrows .
In Yerevan , the raided offices of members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , empty bottles of Jack Daniel ’ s whiskey , and clumps of squashed cake .
File cabinets were emptied , and business cards littered the floor , but computer monitors and other valuable items were left undamaged .
As dawn arrived , men in military fatigues , some missing limbs—most likely volunteer militia—smoked cigarettes , dropping their ashes in the liquid dregs of beer bottles , as opposition members of parliament gathered in the hopes that the ruling party would show up for what promised to be an emotional debate .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ less humiliating ” agreement .
Others called to fight until their last breath .
Naira Zohrabyan , a lawmaker from the opposition Prosperous Armenia party , addressed a crowd and said that everything should be done in a national consensus with the will of the people .
With the sudden peace deal , Armenians are wrestling with a lot of old ghosts .
Detractors said that protesters were simply doing the bidding of the former ruling elite , pushed from power by the 2018 revolution Pashinyan led .
But even protesters who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the unilateral decision to end the war—and it is leaving a lot of open wounds .
“ People voted for him , and if the majority feels that way then he should be in power , ” said Tigran Akopyan , 32 , a restaurant owner from Yerevan who was protesting outside parliament .
“ But until then , the government shouldn ’ t be deciding with one vote what the future of the country should be—that is the setup of the crooks who governed the country for 30 years after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started to clear , with some presumably headed to work .
The stray dogs who had joined the fray were suddenly exposed to the early morning cold .
Then a voice cut through the chatter .
A young woman from Nagorno-Karabakh , displaced to Yerevan by the fighting , shouted in pain that she had lost her 20-year-old brother only last week .
Tears welling in her eyes , she screamed at anyone who would listen that his memory had been betrayed .
“ The land he died on has just been given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

YEREVAN, Armenia—In a night of passion, protest, and anguish, demonstrators took to the streets early Tuesday to excoriate the peace deal announced overnight by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that ended a six-week war and a decadeslong dispute over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
YEREVAN, Armenia—In a night of passion, protest, and anguish, demonstrators took to the streets early Tuesday to excoriate the peace deal announced overnight by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that ended a six-week war and a decadeslong dispute over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The deal, announced discreetly in a 2 a.m. Facebook post, came as a surprise to many, with sources in the government of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region saying they had no prior knowledge of it. The Russian-brokered cease-fire and peace agreement will see Azerbaijan, which had pummeled the armed forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, keep some of its recent territorial gains—sparking dismay among a population that had vowed to keep fighting. The region has been internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, but its population is predominantly Armenian, and Armenia considers it an independent state.
People spilled into the streets of the Armenian capital of Yerevan in the wee hours of the morning, storming both Pashinyan’s official residence and the parliament, while an angry mob beat parliamentary Speaker Ararat Mirzoyan so badly he required minor surgery. Demonstrators ransacked the parliament chamber and offices shouting slogans like “Nikol betrayed us.” In a uniquely 2020 moment, protesters lobbed hand sanitizer to each other from the parliamentary benches.
“I am empty inside,” a resident of the enclave’s de facto capital of Stepanakert, who asked not to be named, said on Tuesday morning.
Fighting erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the end of September and has since left at least 1,300 Armenians dead. (Azerbaijan does not release casualty figures.) In a country of less than 3 million people, hardly a single Armenian is untouched by the horrors brought by six weeks of intense fighting during which both sides have been accused of war crimes.
In what Pashinyan called a “very hard” decision, a cease-fire was agreed to and implemented early Tuesday, with hundreds of Russian peacekeeping forces quickly dispatched to the enclave. The agreement followed a string of Azerbaijani military victories (bolstered by modern weaponry from Turkey and Israel), and the Nagorno-Karabakh region’s leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, said that the deal had become unavoidable.
Many, like those who took to the streets overnight, read the outcome as a victory for Azerbaijan and a defeat for Armenia. Azerbaijan will be allowed to keep areas taken in the recent fighting, while Armenia has agreed to withdraw from several other adjacent areas over the coming weeks.
Residents of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, celebrated in traditional fashion, kicking off what one local vowed would be “three days and three nights of partying.”
Meanwhile, Armenians drowned their sorrows. In Yerevan, the raided offices of members of parliament were strewn with broken glass, empty bottles of Jack Daniel’s whiskey, and clumps of squashed cake. File cabinets were emptied, and business cards littered the floor, but computer monitors and other valuable items were left undamaged.
As dawn arrived, men in military fatigues, some missing limbs—most likely volunteer militia—smoked cigarettes, dropping their ashes in the liquid dregs of beer bottles, as opposition members of parliament gathered in the hopes that the ruling party would show up for what promised to be an emotional debate.
Some called for a referendum, or a “less humiliating” agreement. Others called to fight until their last breath. Naira Zohrabyan, a lawmaker from the opposition Prosperous Armenia party, addressed a crowd and said that everything should be done in a national consensus with the will of the people.
With the sudden peace deal, Armenians are wrestling with a lot of old ghosts. Detractors said that protesters were simply doing the bidding of the former ruling elite, pushed from power by the 2018 revolution Pashinyan led. But even protesters who felt his mandate is legitimate were uneasy with the unilateral decision to end the war—and it is leaving a lot of open wounds.
“People voted for him, and if the majority feels that way then he should be in power,” said Tigran Akopyan, 32, a restaurant owner from Yerevan who was protesting outside parliament.
“But until then, the government shouldn’t be deciding with one vote what the future of the country should be—that is the setup of the crooks who governed the country for 30 years after the Soviet collapse.”
Eventually, the protesters started to clear, with some presumably headed to work. The stray dogs who had joined the fray were suddenly exposed to the early morning cold. Then a voice cut through the chatter.
A young woman from Nagorno-Karabakh, displaced to Yerevan by the fighting, shouted in pain that she had lost her 20-year-old brother only last week. Tears welling in her eyes, she screamed at anyone who would listen that his memory had been betrayed.
“The land he died on has just been given to the enemy,” she said.