foreignpolicy--2020-03-24--Sweden Is Open for Business During Its Coronavirus Outbreak

Sweden Is Open for Business During Its Coronavirus Outbreak STOCKHOLM—Almost all countries in the West dealing with the coronavirus pandemic have by now arrived at the same lockdown strategy , with some local variations .
Only one major exception stands out .
Sweden , while facing an undisputed high-risk outbreak of the virus , has committed to going its own way in combating it .
The Swedish government appears to be betting that its national culture is distinctive enough to pull off public health policies other countries can ’ t .
Whether it will regret doing so remains to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stand out as markedly measured—or , as some would have it , dangerously tame .
Two weeks after the country ’ s Public Health Agency ( on March 10 ) raised the risk level of a community spread of the virus to “ very high ” —the highest grade on a five-point scale—primary schools remain open , borders are only partially closed , there are no compulsory quarantines or shutdowns of restaurants , bars , or public spaces .
While there is a ban on public gatherings , the 500-person limit is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is far from unaffected by the coronavirus epidemic , with markets in free fall , mass unemployment on the horizon , and the health services under growing pressure .
As of Tuesday , a total of 36 Swedes have died after contracting the novel coronavirus and there are more than 2,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 , although the real number is not known since testing is generally limited to hospital patients and elderly home residents who show symptoms of COVID-19 .
Moreover , the Public Health Agency has refused to make public risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus .
So why has Sweden chosen to steer clear of the draconian regulations imposed in other countries ?
The explanation , some analysts say , lies in Sweden ’ s combination of politically independent public agencies—including the Public Health Agency , which is front and center of the current crisis management—and the high level of public trust in them .
While the government in Sweden sets the remit for public agencies ’ missions—determining their objectives and budgets for instance—the agencies are guaranteed freedom from so-called ministerial rule , which means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intervene directly in a public agency ’ s day-to-day operations .
This is a tradition that is enshrined in the Swedish Constitution , said Lars Trägårdh , a historian and public commentator whose research centers on the Nordic welfare state .
“ We ’ re seeing that tradition at work right now , ” said Trägårdh , “ since the Public Health Agency is tasked with being the leading authority on the coronavirus crisis , and the prime minister and his government are expected to listen to and follow their advice.
” Sweden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and several experts have taken issue with the Public Health Agency .
On March 20 , a professor in epidemiology and a professor in mathematical statistics published a joint op-ed in the daily newspaper Svenska Dagbladet urging the country to change course .
“ The Public Health Agency must swiftly and unambiguously recommend social distancing for everyone , not just for those above 70 , ” they wrote , suggesting “ far-reaching measures may be needed.
” But on Sunday , the same newspaper carried a profile of Sweden ’ s state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Public Health Agency and has become the face of Sweden ’ s fight against the coronavirus .
Commenting on the media pressure he is under , Tegnell said : “ Everything has become so political .
Closing borders is a classic example .
We had many such discussions during the 2009 ( swine flu ) pandemic and there was a consensus then among global experts that closing borders has never and will never work.
” When neighboring Norway and Denmark announced border closures earlier this month , Tegnell told Swedish media that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But while there are disagreements within the scientific community and beyond as to whether Sweden ’ s strategy has been sound or reckless , the sentence “ We ’ re following the Public Health Agency ’ s recommendations ” has also become somewhat of a mantra over the past few weeks , as government representatives have leaned on the agency ’ s directives when formulating , and defending , the measures taken to deal with the epidemic .
“ By contrast , ” Trägårdh said , “ in Denmark and Norway , political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health agencies ’ advice on key matters like closing borders .
That hasn ’ t happened in Sweden .
Yet.
” But it ’ s not just the formalized prohibition on ministerial rule and a general preference for evidence-based politics that have colored Sweden ’ s strategy to contain the coronavirus outbreak .
Another factor is at play , too—namely Sweden ’ s vastly above-average level of social trust , which has been documented in the World Values Survey , where Sweden , along with other Nordic nations , is a global outlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nordic high-trust society , said Trägårdh .
“ First , citizens tend to place a lot of faith in public agencies and trust that they act in the public interest .
Second , the authorities on their part trust citizens to heed their advice .
Third , there is a high level of interpersonal trust where Swedes trust one other to act responsibly.
” Applied to the current situation , it means that public health experts and politicians alike act on the presumption that there is neither a general acceptance of nor a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is an expectation that citizens will conform , that they will take personal responsibility and avoid crowds , work from home , keep a distance on public transport , and so on , without being strong-armed into doing so .
“ Whether this is working is ultimately an empirical question that remains to be answered , but anecdotal evidence would at least suggest that people are practicing social distancing despite the absence of measures taken in other countries , where you need a special permit to leave your home and so on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the Swedish government did fast-track a new piece of legislation limiting public gatherings to a maximum of 500 people , some theaters flagged that they would allow 499 ticket holders into their premises .
They were widely castigated , and soon they stepped in line by canceling performances until further notice .
And when Prime Minister Stefan Löfven addressed the nation in a televised speech on Sunday evening—just hours after Germany banned gatherings of two or more people —he emphasized the need for individual responsibility and personal sacrifices .
“ The only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face it as a society , with everyone taking responsibility for themselves , for each other and for our country , ” Löfven said .
He warned that new restrictive measures may lie ahead , but so far the most dramatic steps have been the ban on mass gatherings and compelling high schools and universities to switch to remote teaching , as well as canceling spring-term national exams for school pupils .
“ We don ’ t need to introduce emergency legislation or surveillance measures to ensure people stay at home because the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advice and citizens trust one another to act responsibly , ” said Mikael Rostila , a professor in public health .
“ When it comes to social distancing , it does seems like both individuals and employers took the message to heart pretty speedily , encouraging members of staff to work from home and forbidding them to come into work if they show just mild symptoms of the flu .
That includes my employer , Stockholm University , which follows the Public Health Agency ’ s recommendations , ” said Rostila .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high degree of faith in science and evidence and right now we ’ re facing a public health crisis where epidemiological insights are crucial .
So the experts at the Public Health Agency , with Sweden ’ s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell at the helm , have taken center stage at this acute stage .
But in the longer term , the economic impact may well become the more overriding concern and then we ’ re likely to turn to other experts , ” said Rostila , adding that there is “ also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of trust in public agencies also means we have high expectations and low acceptance for failure .
So the fall can be high if they fail to deliver.
” By the same measure , it can be precarious for the Public Health Agency and government to lean on the presumption of trust .
“ If any of the three levels of trust—the mutual trust between citizens and authorities and the interpersonal trust—falter then the foundation of the high-trust society crumbles , ” said Trädgårdh .
“ And if we do end up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then the citizens ’ trust in authorities—and in the government which has been guided by them—will be at stake , too.
” But Johan Giesecke , Sweden ’ s former state epidemiologist and a current advisor to the World Health Organization , insists that , so far , “ there is no indication that we need to fear a breakdown in trust.
” He believes the Public Health Agency , which he once headed , has been too drastic rather than too lenient .
“ Banning public gatherings is an idiotic idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if you ’ re not feeling sick you should go to work or school .
There ’ s no reason why people who feel well should stay at home and there is no evidence that shows closing national borders or restaurants reduces the spread of viruses .
The only preventative measure that has sound scientific backing is washing your hands .
But we ’ ve known that for 150 years.
” Giesecke believes the Public Health Agency can safely presume that Swedes will be both trusting and conformist .
In fact , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interpreting their advice too strictly .
For instance , many sports clubs have on their own accord canceled youth activities , which prompted the agency ’ s director-general , Johan Carlson , to urge them to reconsider .
It ’ s “ unreasonable ” to cancel football or ice hockey practice for kids , he said during a press conference last week .
Such measures “ paralyze society ” and counteract public health targets , he said .
At the same time , criticism of the Public Health Agency has been fierce in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the editor in chief of Sweden ’ s biggest daily newspaper one of its most vocal critics .
Moves that are at odds with actions taken by countries in the rest of Scandinavia and beyond—not least when it comes to school closures , enforced quarantines , and policing—have caused consternation and ire .
Currently , much of the critique centers on the lack of any suggestion so far that the government will restrict domestic travel or shut down ski resorts ahead of the Easter break , when thousands of Swedes flock to northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has warned that there is a major risk of the virus spreading from the cities , but has stopped short of enforcing bans .
For critics , this is a dangerous move , not least because the virus only took hold in Sweden after the winter school break , when a large number of people returned from skiing trips in the Italian Alps .
Yet surveys by pollster Novus suggest that there is a discrepancy between the media and the public as trust in the Public Health Agency is growing .
The latest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that when it comes to institutions ’ handling of the coronavirus , the Public Health Agency is the second-most trusted , after the health services .
All media outlets rank lower .
“ I ’ m with the people on this one , ” said Trägårdh .
“ I don ’ t want to paint too rosy a picture or make any certain predictions in these precarious times but I do think that Sweden stands a good chance of coming out of this relatively unscathed when it comes to navigating the public health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sweden ’ s response and outcome will surely be analyzed for years to come , ” Trägårdh continued , “ but we do have some structural advantages here .
Not just in relation to our particular form of governance and the high level of trust , but also because we are a pretty sparsely populated country where there are a lot of single households and social distancing is basically a national characteristic .
Like the Swedish actress Greta Garbo famously said : ‘ I want to be let alone !
’ Well , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that peculiarly Swedish preference may well be an advantage .
”

STOCKHOLM—Almost all countries in the West dealing with the coronavirus pandemic have by now arrived at the same lockdown strategy, with some local variations. Only one major exception stands out. Sweden, while facing an undisputed high-risk outbreak of the virus, has committed to going its own way in combating it.
STOCKHOLM—Almost all countries in the West dealing with the coronavirus pandemic have by now arrived at the same lockdown strategy, with some local variations. Only one major exception stands out. Sweden, while facing an undisputed high-risk outbreak of the virus, has committed to going its own way in combating it.
The Swedish government appears to be betting that its national culture is distinctive enough to pull off public health policies other countries can’t. Whether it will regret doing so remains to be seen.
Stockholm’s coronavirus efforts stand out as markedly measured—or, as some would have it, dangerously tame. Two weeks after the country’s Public Health Agency (on March 10) raised the risk level of a community spread of the virus to “very high”—the highest grade on a five-point scale—primary schools remain open, borders are only partially closed, there are no compulsory quarantines or shutdowns of restaurants, bars, or public spaces. While there is a ban on public gatherings, the 500-person limit is more generous than in other countries.
Sweden is far from unaffected by the coronavirus epidemic, with markets in free fall, mass unemployment on the horizon, and the health services under growing pressure. As of Tuesday, a total of 36 Swedes have died after contracting the novel coronavirus and there are more than 2,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, although the real number is not known since testing is generally limited to hospital patients and elderly home residents who show symptoms of COVID-19. Moreover, the Public Health Agency has refused to make public risk assessments or prediction models for the spread of the virus.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
So why has Sweden chosen to steer clear of the draconian regulations imposed in other countries? The explanation, some analysts say, lies in Sweden’s combination of politically independent public agencies—including the Public Health Agency, which is front and center of the current crisis management—and the high level of public trust in them.
While the government in Sweden sets the remit for public agencies’ missions—determining their objectives and budgets for instance—the agencies are guaranteed freedom from so-called ministerial rule, which means politicians do not have the power to intervene directly in a public agency’s day-to-day operations. This is a tradition that is enshrined in the Swedish Constitution, said Lars Trägårdh, a historian and public commentator whose research centers on the Nordic welfare state.
“We’re seeing that tradition at work right now,” said Trägårdh, “since the Public Health Agency is tasked with being the leading authority on the coronavirus crisis, and the prime minister and his government are expected to listen to and follow their advice.”
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
Sweden’s scientific community is not unanimous, and several experts have taken issue with the Public Health Agency. On March 20, a professor in epidemiology and a professor in mathematical statistics published a joint op-ed in the daily newspaper Svenska Dagbladet urging the country to change course. “The Public Health Agency must swiftly and unambiguously recommend social distancing for everyone, not just for those above 70,” they wrote, suggesting “far-reaching measures may be needed.” But on Sunday, the same newspaper carried a profile of Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who heads the Public Health Agency and has become the face of Sweden’s fight against the coronavirus. Commenting on the media pressure he is under, Tegnell said: “Everything has become so political. Closing borders is a classic example. We had many such discussions during the 2009 (swine flu) pandemic and there was a consensus then among global experts that closing borders has never and will never work.” When neighboring Norway and Denmark announced border closures earlier this month, Tegnell told Swedish media that the moves had no scientific basis.
But while there are disagreements within the scientific community and beyond as to whether Sweden’s strategy has been sound or reckless, the sentence “We’re following the Public Health Agency’s recommendations” has also become somewhat of a mantra over the past few weeks, as government representatives have leaned on the agency’s directives when formulating, and defending, the measures taken to deal with the epidemic.
“By contrast,” Trägårdh said, “in Denmark and Norway, political leaders have gone against the local public health agencies’ advice on key matters like closing borders. That hasn’t happened in Sweden. Yet.”
But it’s not just the formalized prohibition on ministerial rule and a general preference for evidence-based politics that have colored Sweden’s strategy to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Another factor is at play, too—namely Sweden’s vastly above-average level of social trust, which has been documented in the World Values Survey, where Sweden, along with other Nordic nations, is a global outlier.
There are three aspects to the Nordic high-trust society, said Trägårdh. “First, citizens tend to place a lot of faith in public agencies and trust that they act in the public interest. Second, the authorities on their part trust citizens to heed their advice. Third, there is a high level of interpersonal trust where Swedes trust one other to act responsibly.”
Applied to the current situation, it means that public health experts and politicians alike act on the presumption that there is neither a general acceptance of nor a need for draconian legislation. Instead, there is an expectation that citizens will conform, that they will take personal responsibility and avoid crowds, work from home, keep a distance on public transport, and so on, without being strong-armed into doing so.
“Whether this is working is ultimately an empirical question that remains to be answered, but anecdotal evidence would at least suggest that people are practicing social distancing despite the absence of measures taken in other countries, where you need a special permit to leave your home and so on,” said Trägårdh.
Indeed, when the Swedish government did fast-track a new piece of legislation limiting public gatherings to a maximum of 500 people, some theaters flagged that they would allow 499 ticket holders into their premises. They were widely castigated, and soon they stepped in line by canceling performances until further notice. And when Prime Minister Stefan Löfven addressed the nation in a televised speech on Sunday evening—just hours after Germany banned gatherings of two or more people —he emphasized the need for individual responsibility and personal sacrifices.
“The only way to manage this crisis is to face it as a society, with everyone taking responsibility for themselves, for each other and for our country,” Löfven said. He warned that new restrictive measures may lie ahead, but so far the most dramatic steps have been the ban on mass gatherings and compelling high schools and universities to switch to remote teaching, as well as canceling spring-term national exams for school pupils.
“We don’t need to introduce emergency legislation or surveillance measures to ensure people stay at home because the authorities trust that citizens will follow their advice and citizens trust one another to act responsibly,” said Mikael Rostila, a professor in public health.
“When it comes to social distancing, it does seems like both individuals and employers took the message to heart pretty speedily, encouraging members of staff to work from home and forbidding them to come into work if they show just mild symptoms of the flu. That includes my employer, Stockholm University, which follows the Public Health Agency’s recommendations,” said Rostila.
“I’d say Swedes have a high degree of faith in science and evidence and right now we’re facing a public health crisis where epidemiological insights are crucial. So the experts at the Public Health Agency, with Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell at the helm, have taken center stage at this acute stage. But in the longer term, the economic impact may well become the more overriding concern and then we’re likely to turn to other experts,” said Rostila, adding that there is “also a paradox at work because the high level of trust in public agencies also means we have high expectations and low acceptance for failure. So the fall can be high if they fail to deliver.”
By the same measure, it can be precarious for the Public Health Agency and government to lean on the presumption of trust. “If any of the three levels of trust—the mutual trust between citizens and authorities and the interpersonal trust—falter then the foundation of the high-trust society crumbles,” said Trädgårdh. “And if we do end up facing a major and devastating epidemic here, then the citizens’ trust in authorities—and in the government which has been guided by them—will be at stake, too.”
But Johan Giesecke, Sweden’s former state epidemiologist and a current advisor to the World Health Organization, insists that, so far, “there is no indication that we need to fear a breakdown in trust.” He believes the Public Health Agency, which he once headed, has been too drastic rather than too lenient.
“Banning public gatherings is an idiotic idea,” said Giesecke, “and if you’re not feeling sick you should go to work or school. There’s no reason why people who feel well should stay at home and there is no evidence that shows closing national borders or restaurants reduces the spread of viruses. The only preventative measure that has sound scientific backing is washing your hands. But we’ve known that for 150 years.”
Giesecke believes the Public Health Agency can safely presume that Swedes will be both trusting and conformist. In fact, the agency has even suggested Swedes may be interpreting their advice too strictly. For instance, many sports clubs have on their own accord canceled youth activities, which prompted the agency’s director-general, Johan Carlson, to urge them to reconsider. It’s “unreasonable” to cancel football or ice hockey practice for kids, he said during a press conference last week. Such measures “paralyze society” and counteract public health targets, he said.
At the same time, criticism of the Public Health Agency has been fierce in media and in social media, with the editor in chief of Sweden’s biggest daily newspaper one of its most vocal critics. Moves that are at odds with actions taken by countries in the rest of Scandinavia and beyond—not least when it comes to school closures, enforced quarantines, and policing—have caused consternation and ire.
Currently, much of the critique centers on the lack of any suggestion so far that the government will restrict domestic travel or shut down ski resorts ahead of the Easter break, when thousands of Swedes flock to northern mountain region. The Public Health Agency has warned that there is a major risk of the virus spreading from the cities, but has stopped short of enforcing bans.
For critics, this is a dangerous move, not least because the virus only took hold in Sweden after the winter school break, when a large number of people returned from skiing trips in the Italian Alps.
Yet surveys by pollster Novus suggest that there is a discrepancy between the media and the public as trust in the Public Health Agency is growing. The latest poll, from March 18, shows that when it comes to institutions’ handling of the coronavirus, the Public Health Agency is the second-most trusted, after the health services. All media outlets rank lower.
“I’m with the people on this one,” said Trägårdh. “I don’t want to paint too rosy a picture or make any certain predictions in these precarious times but I do think that Sweden stands a good chance of coming out of this relatively unscathed when it comes to navigating the public health threat and protecting basic liberties.”
“Sweden’s response and outcome will surely be analyzed for years to come,” Trägårdh continued, “but we do have some structural advantages here. Not just in relation to our particular form of governance and the high level of trust, but also because we are a pretty sparsely populated country where there are a lot of single households and social distancing is basically a national characteristic. Like the Swedish actress Greta Garbo famously said: ‘I want to be let alone!’ Well, it turns out that during a pandemic that peculiarly Swedish preference may well be an advantage.”


foreignpolicy--2020-03-24--How Governments Got Their Quarantine Powers

How Governments Got Their Quarantine Powers As the new coronavirus swept through Hubei province in China , the world marveled—in a mix of awe and horror—as Beijing implemented drastic measures to curtail its citizens ’ movement .
Loudspeakers told Wuhan residents to stay inside .
Drones patrolled the streets , hectoring those ignoring lockdown .
Those critical of the government ’ s response were arrested arbitrarily .
China ’ s draconian response was in keeping with its authoritarian nature .
Mass quarantining entire cities seems positively dystopian for many Westerners .
And yet , the laws already in place in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far off the control exercised by Beijing—at least in theory .
Many Western governments , especially former British colonies , have laws on the books that give them extraordinary powers to step in and order quarantines , detain those refusing to self-isolate , and seize assets as required .
Even the United States has capabilities that border on totalitarian .
The big question is : Are any of these powers even constitutional ?
For many parts of the world , the origins of such powers lie in imperial history .
Over centuries of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expanding the reaches of the empire was disease .
Before the development of antimalarial drugs , for instance , the death rate for European colonialists in Africa was often higher than 10 percent annually .
As germ theory and new drugs broke down those barriers , an obsession with preventing epidemics set in , most focused on protecting those at the top .
The United Kingdom ’ s quarantine laws automatically sequestered all manner of ships coming from continental Europe and the Ottoman Empire .
The Quarantine Act of 1721 , however , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some ships were forced to sit in harbors for 80 days .
Some importers were required to break open bales of cotton and throw the crop over their heads—if the plague lived inside , logic went , the sailors would contract the illness .
The sometimes-absurd measures gave rise to what was known as the anticontagionist movement .
Even if some of the opposition was rooted in faulty science , the movement had prominent backers .
The Lancet medical journal was noted for its anticontagionist fervor .
In 1841 , the journal wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either in political motives or from despotic feelings.
” By the end of the century , the Quarantine Act was repealed outright .
Mandatory quarantine was largely over , and authority for containing communicable diseases became more of a local concern in England .
The law was gone , and a national strategy was largely thrown out with it .
As one doctor wrote around that time : “ Man possesses an infinite capacity for living for the day , and banishing unpleasant thoughts to the future.
” Yet while the U.K. repealed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stayed on the books in its colonies—some were left untouched for decades .
Canada imported its Quarantine Act from the United Kingdom and left it largely unaltered until after the SARS epidemic hit in 2003 .
When Ottawa was called upon to start enforcing quarantines and screening air travelers , there was some confusion as to whether the act only governed maritime travel—per its original intent—or whether it could be expanded to include air travel .
Ottawa updated its law in 2005 and gave itself broad powers to detain travelers suspected of being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state the power to force people into involuntary medical examinations .
Canadian provinces have similarly potent powers .
Police in Quebec recently arrested a woman who tested positive for the coronavirus and was refusing to abide by her mandatory self-isolation , and they have been breaking up parties based on community complaints .
Saskatchewan sent emergency alerts to residents ’ phones , warning them that ignoring quarantine orders could result in arrest and fines .
Meanwhile , the Australian Quarantine Act , which had most recently been updated in 1908 , was repealed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Act .
The new law was mostly written with insect and animal pests in mind—the government just took the opportunity to replace the quarantine system while they were at it .
The law gives the government the authority to order quarantines as well , and it makes refusal to comply punishable by up to a decade in prison .
“ For the first time really at a mass level in Australia people might be required to give me information about who they ’ ve come in contact with at certain points in time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said late last month Hong Kong , too , had its own Quarantine Act , dating back to its time as a British territory .
That , however , was replaced by new health measures that allow for warrantless detention of people considered health risks .
Even still , when Chinese authorities failed to contain the coronavirus to Hubei province , Hong Kong quickly passed even stricter measures , mandating a 14-day quarantine for all those arriving in Hong Kong .
Today , Hong Kong is issuing geolocation bracelets to those entering the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mandatory self-isolation .
So far , though , two-thirds of the bracelets have failed to work .
Jamaica ’ s Quarantine Act establishes a quarantine committee , which includes health officials as well as captains of shipping and air travel , responsible for declaring emergencies and making public orders .
While other governments have had slapdash approaches to preparing legal safeguards in the event of a pandemic , New Zealand has been slowly building up its legislative toolkit for decades .
Wellington drew up quarantine regulations in 1983 and then passed its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act gives the federal government authority to declare an epidemic , giving it almost limitless latitude to quarantine people or places , requisition private property , detain individuals , and have police enforce its actions—although subject to oversight from the health authority .
In the United States , 9/11 and the anthrax attacks that followed underscored how ill-prepared America was to deal with threats posed by a chemical or biological attack or outbreak .
While work began then to build strategies , “ these efforts have not resulted in a clear picture of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a report found in 2007 .
In 2006 , the introduction of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act gave the Department of Health and Human Services more power to acquire medical countermeasures and aid states in their response to outbreaks—it does not , however , give Washington much authority to step into state jurisdiction .
Nigeria is an example of how decentralizing power to local authorities can be risky .
A 2018 paper found that “ national laws on health do not necessarily bind the States.
” It recommended that Abuja beef up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While Nigeria has other health acts it can rely on during crisis , its Quarantine Act is nearly a century old and hasn ’ t been updated since the 1960s .
While many countries have worked to put in place legal tools to respond to a pandemic such as this , the United Kingdom remained an anticontagionist holdout until recently .
Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s government rushed to fix that in the past week , putting forward a bill in Parliament that would give his government the power to outlaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s already spurred criticism from human rights groups and privacy advocates .
While many Anglophone democracies have targeted laws to govern health emergencies , most also have broader measures to govern social order—though they are significantly more controversial .
New Zealand has the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act , but it only used the act for the first time after the Christchurch earthquake in 2011 .
The U.K. has the controversial Civil Contingencies Act .
Canada has the Emergencies Act—its predecessor was used to functionally suspend civil liberties and dispatch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a crisis in the 1970s .
In Australia , declarations of emergency differ state by state .
Governments have been reluctant to wield those acts , given their all-encompassing power to curtail individual freedom .
Canada has said it would not enforce the Emergencies Act yet .
Canadian Health Minister Patty Hajdu indicated that , so long as Canadians follow orders to self-isolate , that act won ’ t be necessary .
“ Should we see any sense that that is not happening , we will not hesitate to take stronger measures , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are playing fast and loose with the rules , it actually does put our civil liberties in jeopardy , ” Hajdu added .
“ It makes governments have to look at more and more stringent measures to actually contain people in their own homes.
” There have been some calls to take that giant step in the United States already as videos of spring break partiers have hit social media .
In the United States , it was President Gerald Ford who first tied a disparate set of powers together to give the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Those powers have been used extensively , from prosecuting anti-Vietnam War protesters to , more recently , unlocking funding to build a wall along the border with Mexico .
Many of those powers , however , come with restrictions , while others need congressional approval .
They still leave many emergency powers to the states .
There are still some fairly expansive powers available to the president , however .
Trump , for example , could temporarily permit the federal government to take over radio stations .
A study from the Brennan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of those powers have never been used and that “ a large percentage of these authorities appear to be unnecessary and/or outdated.
” Some powers , such as whether Washington can declare a national state of martial law , remain untested .
But Washington largely only has the power to order quarantines of people , ships , and planes coming into the United States .
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , domestic quarantines are a responsibility of state law , and “ these laws can vary from state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broad .
In some states , local health authorities implement state law.
” On the state level , the CDC published a Model State Emergency Health Powers Act in 2001 , encouraging states to adopt their draft text—most states have done so in various ways .
Governors in states that have enacted the law have powers to order quarantines and isolation , similar to what is found in New Zealand , Canada , and elsewhere .
And where there ’ s a will to enforce social distancing , there ’ s a way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up weddings , issuing tickets to the guests for “ maintaining a nuisance.
” The American Civil Liberties Union ( ACLU ) has taken aim at the draft state emergencies law written by the CDC , calling it “ replete with civil liberties problems ” and lacking in checks and balances .
But for now , civil liberties groups around the world seem happy to let governments take firm action to fight the virus .
A rights group in Australia lauded Canberra ’ s use of emergency powers .
The Canadian Civil Liberties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warning that any expansion of state power “ should not be more liberty-restrictive than necessary.
” The ACLU , meanwhile , has promised it “ will be watching closely ” as to how Washington exercises its power .
It ’ s an open question as to just how far governments will have to go to keep social order and to continue social distancing .
New Zealand has invoked its Civil Defence Emergency Management Act and will be implementing a national lockdown , while Canada is inching closer to invoking its own Emergencies Act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks , or even months , to come , voluntary measures may break down .
The use of police and military may be effective in the short term , but there are limits to what even a virus-stricken public will accept .

As the new coronavirus swept through Hubei province in China, the world marveled—in a mix of awe and horror—as Beijing implemented drastic measures to curtail its citizens’ movement. Loudspeakers told Wuhan residents to stay inside. Drones patrolled the streets, hectoring those ignoring lockdown. Those critical of the government’s response were arrested arbitrarily.
As the new coronavirus swept through Hubei province in China, the world marveled—in a mix of awe and horror—as Beijing implemented drastic measures to curtail its citizens’ movement. Loudspeakers told Wuhan residents to stay inside. Drones patrolled the streets, hectoring those ignoring lockdown. Those critical of the government’s response were arrested arbitrarily.
China’s draconian response was in keeping with its authoritarian nature. Mass quarantining entire cities seems positively dystopian for many Westerners.
And yet, the laws already in place in many democratic countries aren’t so far off the control exercised by Beijing—at least in theory.
Many Western governments, especially former British colonies, have laws on the books that give them extraordinary powers to step in and order quarantines, detain those refusing to self-isolate, and seize assets as required. Even the United States has capabilities that border on totalitarian.
The big question is: Are any of these powers even constitutional?
For many parts of the world, the origins of such powers lie in imperial history. Over centuries of imperial expansion, a major barrier to expanding the reaches of the empire was disease. Before the development of antimalarial drugs, for instance, the death rate for European colonialists in Africa was often higher than 10 percent annually. As germ theory and new drugs broke down those barriers, an obsession with preventing epidemics set in, most focused on protecting those at the top.
The United Kingdom’s quarantine laws automatically sequestered all manner of ships coming from continental Europe and the Ottoman Empire. The Quarantine Act of 1721, however, was incredibly broad and applied arbitrarily. Some ships were forced to sit in harbors for 80 days. Some importers were required to break open bales of cotton and throw the crop over their heads—if the plague lived inside, logic went, the sailors would contract the illness.
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The sometimes-absurd measures gave rise to what was known as the anticontagionist movement. Even if some of the opposition was rooted in faulty science, the movement had prominent backers. The Lancet medical journal was noted for its anticontagionist fervor. In 1841, the journal wrote “the quarantine laws derive their enforcement either in political motives or from despotic feelings.” By the end of the century, the Quarantine Act was repealed outright. Mandatory quarantine was largely over, and authority for containing communicable diseases became more of a local concern in England.
The law was gone, and a national strategy was largely thrown out with it. As one doctor wrote around that time: “Man possesses an infinite capacity for living for the day, and banishing unpleasant thoughts to the future.”
Yet while the U.K. repealed its own laws, various quarantine laws stayed on the books in its colonies—some were left untouched for decades.
Canada imported its Quarantine Act from the United Kingdom and left it largely unaltered until after the SARS epidemic hit in 2003. When Ottawa was called upon to start enforcing quarantines and screening air travelers, there was some confusion as to whether the act only governed maritime travel—per its original intent—or whether it could be expanded to include air travel. Ottawa updated its law in 2005 and gave itself broad powers to detain travelers suspected of being health risks. It even gave the state the power to force people into involuntary medical examinations.
Canadian provinces have similarly potent powers. Police in Quebec recently arrested a woman who tested positive for the coronavirus and was refusing to abide by her mandatory self-isolation, and they have been breaking up parties based on community complaints. Saskatchewan sent emergency alerts to residents’ phones, warning them that ignoring quarantine orders could result in arrest and fines.
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Meanwhile, the Australian Quarantine Act, which had most recently been updated in 1908, was repealed in 2015 and replaced by the Biosecurity Act. The new law was mostly written with insect and animal pests in mind—the government just took the opportunity to replace the quarantine system while they were at it. The law gives the government the authority to order quarantines as well, and it makes refusal to comply punishable by up to a decade in prison.
“For the first time really at a mass level in Australia people might be required to give me information about who they’ve come in contact with at certain points in time,” Australian Attorney General Christian Porter said late last month .
Hong Kong, too, had its own Quarantine Act, dating back to its time as a British territory. That, however, was replaced by new health measures that allow for warrantless detention of people considered health risks. Even still, when Chinese authorities failed to contain the coronavirus to Hubei province, Hong Kong quickly passed even stricter measures, mandating a 14-day quarantine for all those arriving in Hong Kong.
Today, Hong Kong is issuing geolocation bracelets to those entering the country in order to ensure they respect the mandatory self-isolation. So far, though, two-thirds of the bracelets have failed to work.
Jamaica’s Quarantine Act establishes a quarantine committee, which includes health officials as well as captains of shipping and air travel, responsible for declaring emergencies and making public orders.
While other governments have had slapdash approaches to preparing legal safeguards in the event of a pandemic, New Zealand has been slowly building up its legislative toolkit for decades. Wellington drew up quarantine regulations in 1983 and then passed its Epidemic Preparedness Act in 2006. The act gives the federal government authority to declare an epidemic, giving it almost limitless latitude to quarantine people or places, requisition private property, detain individuals, and have police enforce its actions—although subject to oversight from the health authority.
In the United States, 9/11 and the anthrax attacks that followed underscored how ill-prepared America was to deal with threats posed by a chemical or biological attack or outbreak. While work began then to build strategies, “these efforts have not resulted in a clear picture of the nation’s preparedness,” a report found in 2007. In 2006, the introduction of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act gave the Department of Health and Human Services more power to acquire medical countermeasures and aid states in their response to outbreaks—it does not, however, give Washington much authority to step into state jurisdiction.
Nigeria is an example of how decentralizing power to local authorities can be risky. A 2018 paper found that “national laws on health do not necessarily bind the States.” It recommended that Abuja beef up its laws, especially around disease surveillance. While Nigeria has other health acts it can rely on during crisis, its Quarantine Act is nearly a century old and hasn’t been updated since the 1960s.
While many countries have worked to put in place legal tools to respond to a pandemic such as this, the United Kingdom remained an anticontagionist holdout until recently.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government rushed to fix that in the past week, putting forward a bill in Parliament that would give his government the power to outlaw social gatherings and close businesses and schools. It’s already spurred criticism from human rights groups and privacy advocates.
While many Anglophone democracies have targeted laws to govern health emergencies, most also have broader measures to govern social order—though they are significantly more controversial.
New Zealand has the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act, but it only used the act for the first time after the Christchurch earthquake in 2011. The U.K. has the controversial Civil Contingencies Act. Canada has the Emergencies Act—its predecessor was used to functionally suspend civil liberties and dispatch the military to guard social order during a crisis in the 1970s. In Australia, declarations of emergency differ state by state.
Governments have been reluctant to wield those acts, given their all-encompassing power to curtail individual freedom. Canada has said it would not enforce the Emergencies Act yet. Canadian Health Minister Patty Hajdu indicated that, so long as Canadians follow orders to self-isolate, that act won’t be necessary. “Should we see any sense that that is not happening, we will not hesitate to take stronger measures,” she said.
“When people are playing fast and loose with the rules, it actually does put our civil liberties in jeopardy,” Hajdu added. “It makes governments have to look at more and more stringent measures to actually contain people in their own homes.”
There have been some calls to take that giant step in the United States already as videos of spring break partiers have hit social media.
In the United States, it was President Gerald Ford who first tied a disparate set of powers together to give the White House authority to call national emergencies. Those powers have been used extensively, from prosecuting anti-Vietnam War protesters to, more recently, unlocking funding to build a wall along the border with Mexico. Many of those powers, however, come with restrictions, while others need congressional approval. They still leave many emergency powers to the states.
There are still some fairly expansive powers available to the president, however. Trump, for example, could temporarily permit the federal government to take over radio stations. A study from the Brennan Center for Justice found in 2018 that most of those powers have never been used and that “a large percentage of these authorities appear to be unnecessary and/or outdated.”
Some powers, such as whether Washington can declare a national state of martial law, remain untested. But Washington largely only has the power to order quarantines of people, ships, and planes coming into the United States. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, domestic quarantines are a responsibility of state law, and “these laws can vary from state to state and can be specific or broad. In some states, local health authorities implement state law.”
On the state level, the CDC published a Model State Emergency Health Powers Act in 2001, encouraging states to adopt their draft text—most states have done so in various ways. Governors in states that have enacted the law have powers to order quarantines and isolation, similar to what is found in New Zealand, Canada, and elsewhere. And where there’s a will to enforce social distancing, there’s a way. Police in New Jersey have broken up weddings, issuing tickets to the guests for “maintaining a nuisance.”
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has taken aim at the draft state emergencies law written by the CDC, calling it “replete with civil liberties problems” and lacking in checks and balances.
But for now, civil liberties groups around the world seem happy to let governments take firm action to fight the virus. A rights group in Australia lauded Canberra’s use of emergency powers. The Canadian Civil Liberties Association was a bit more circumspect, warning that any expansion of state power “should not be more liberty-restrictive than necessary.” The ACLU, meanwhile, has promised it “will be watching closely” as to how Washington exercises its power.
It’s an open question as to just how far governments will have to go to keep social order and to continue social distancing. New Zealand has invoked its Civil Defence Emergency Management Act and will be implementing a national lockdown, while Canada is inching closer to invoking its own Emergencies Act. If social isolation is required for weeks, or even months, to come, voluntary measures may break down. The use of police and military may be effective in the short term, but there are limits to what even a virus-stricken public will accept.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-24--Is $2 Trillion Too Little, Too Late?

Is $2 Trillion Too Little, Too Late?

Is $ 2 Trillion Too Little , Too Late ?
Despite a record rebound in the financial markets Tuesday on news that the U.S. Congress ’ s nearly $ 2 trillion rescue plan is imminent , some economists say the legislation may not be enough to blunt the sudden shutdown of so much economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic .
What is needed is not a “ stimulus , ” as the bill has been called , or one-time payments to businesses and workers , but rather an across-the-board suspension of private debt payments and a nationwide program under which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employees , as other countries have done , some critics say .
Only such an unprecedented government intervention can prevent permanent economic devastation from the virus-induced work stoppage , even if U.S. President Donald Trump manages to reopen parts of the economy in the next several weeks in defiance of his health experts , as he said Tuesday he was eager to do .
As news spread that the bill was close to completion , the Dow Jones on Tuesday posted its largest percentage and point gain since Franklin Delano Roosevelt launched the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2,113 points to finish at nearly 20,705 .
But that recovery came only after financial markets fell more in March than in any month since September 1931 , suggesting the depression-sized stakes of the U.S. rescue package , the largest ever conceived by Congress .
The most pressing issue is that with economic activity across the country ceasing even more quickly than it did during the Great Depression—with businesses shuttering and workers laid off at a pace unprecedented in U.S. history—defaults are expected to be imminent on everything from corporate debt to mortgage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economists say , the more appropriate response should be a broad-based “ holiday , ” to use a Depression-era term , suspending foreclosures , evictions , bankruptcies , and other contractual obligations that would cause long-term damage to the economy .
The federal government should step in , possibly invoking implicit force majeure clauses in private contracts , to guarantee such suspensions of debt payment and also to ensure that the millions of workers laid off or furloughed are paid .
“ The very term ‘ stimulus ’ is indicative that people don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ downturn , ” said the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University .
“ There ’ s no awareness of this on Capitol Hill at all .
In 2008 we were worried about the potential consequences of a credit freeze .
Then it was top-down : a freeze of the banking system .
But this is bottom-up and has not been adequately talked about : If workers don ’ t have wages , they can ’ t pay their bills .
They ’ ll be buying food [ with stimulus money ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to be ruined .
“ The answer is we need no evictions , no foreclosures on all properties , and the government should guarantee pay , ” Stiglitz told Foreign Policy .
Credit card companies should also be pressed to issue “ a stay on interest on all debt.
” The Trump administration has declined to apply pressure directly to commercial lenders , announcing last week that mortgages guaranteed through the Federal Housing Administration and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would not result in foreclosures or evictions for at least 60 days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believed to be close to completion on Tuesday would reportedly funnel out enormous amounts of cash to individuals and businesses , but with no assurances about what happens in the medium to long term to their jobs or debt obligations .
It would grant about $ 500 billion in direct payments to people , in two phases of checks of up to $ 1,200 per individual making up to $ 75,000 a year .
Additional payments for families with children could total $ 3,000 for a family of four .
The package would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to $ 1,200 per taxpayer ; offer subsidized loans to small businesses and direct loans to the hardest-hit industries ; relax income tax rules and deadlines ; and give financial aid to students , schools , and colleges .
It is also expected to supply $ 240 billion in relief for health care ; $ 11 billion for developing vaccines , treatments , and so on ; and $ 4.5 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
Reportedly , unemployment insurance benefits in the bill would give recipients 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period , but Stiglitz and other economists worry that such indirect methods requiring workers to apply online could crash the system .
“ I worry if we have the capacity to deliver checks to everybody in two weeks , or two months .
I also worry whether the unemployment insurance system is capable of expanding tenfold in two weeks , ” Stiglitz said .
Some economists say the Danish approach of directly guaranteeing the better part of salaries through companies , also recently adopted to differing degrees by the German and British governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday , Britain ’ s chancellor of the exchequer , Rishi Sunak , announced an unprecedented intervention in the British economy that would cover 80 percent of worker salaries for at least the next three months up to $ 2,900 a month , a figure pegged at more than the average income .
Earlier , the Danish government said that companies that would otherwise be forced to cut staff by 30 percent or lose more than 50 people will be covered for 75 percent of their wage bills for three months .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to expand a program to guarantee wages and prohibit eviction due to not paying rent between April 1 and Sept. 30 .
“ Keeping workers on the payroll , with the cost covered by the Federal government , is very important , ” said the Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik , president-elect of the International Economic Association .
“ It is essential to instill confidence and reduce the insecurity of job loss that will otherwise result , even with generous unemployment compensation .
So yes , the Danish ( and German , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go .
There should be a separate facility to help small and medium sized businesses to help with their liabilities.
” The G-7 nations on Tuesday issued a common call from finance ministers and central banks pledging “ coordination on our dynamic domestic and international policy efforts ” against the health and economic impact of the virus .
And G-20 leaders are expected to deliver an “ action plan ” later this week .
But in practice , the United States has gone its own way .
Trump , in particular , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal government too much into economic activity or health responses , declining to mandate anything from industry despite signing the Defense Production Act last week .
On Tuesday , Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Peter Gaynor said the government for the first time would use the new act to order about 60,000 test kits .
Stiglitz said the government could work with private companies through the tax system , since they have to fill out a quarterly return anyway , supplying them with a new tax form so that reimbursement to the companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what they owe .
“ Denmark has done it most clearly , ” he said .
“ They told employers to send workers you don ’ t want home , lay them off , but pay them , and we ’ ll pay you.
” Other economists agree that an unprecedentedly swift shutdown of economic activity calls for an unprecedented response by the government .
“ We are in worse times than in anybody ’ s memory , ” said Lawrence White of New York University , who noted that the devastation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ruin the economy while the current stoppage is happening in weeks .
Both lenders and borrowers in the debt equation need to be encouraged or ordered to stand off from using the typical means of bankruptcy and restructuring .
“ I can imagine a faster process , ” he said , to “ encourage shops to reopen and provide liquidity and loans , whatever is needed to get entrepreneurial processes going again.
” Such efforts are needed now because even in the best case , said White , “ I can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shaped recovery ] where we declare the coronavirus threat over .
It ain ’ t gon na be full employment on June 1 .
”

Despite a record rebound in the financial markets on news that the U.S. Congress’s nearly $2 trillion rescue plan is imminent, some economists say the legislation may not be enough to blunt the sudden shutdown of so much economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic.
Despite a record rebound in the financial markets on news that the U.S. Congress’s nearly $2 trillion rescue plan is imminent, some economists say the legislation may not be enough to blunt the sudden shutdown of so much economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic.
What is needed is not a “stimulus,” as the rescue package announced early Wednesday was called, or one-time payments to businesses and workers, but rather an across-the-board suspension of private debt payments and a nationwide program under which the government directly reimburses pay to laid-off employees, as other countries have done, some critics say. Only such an unprecedented government intervention can prevent permanent economic devastation from the virus-induced work stoppage, even if U.S. President Donald Trump manages to reopen parts of the economy in the next several weeks in defiance of his health experts, as he said Tuesday he was eager to do.
As news spread that the bill was close to completion, the Dow Jones on Tuesday posted its largest percentage and point gain since Franklin Delano Roosevelt launched the New Deal in 1933, leaping by 2,113 points to finish at nearly 20,705. But that recovery came only after financial markets fell more in March than in any month since September 1931, suggesting the depression-sized stakes of the U.S. rescue package, the largest ever conceived by Congress.
The most pressing issue is that with economic activity across the country ceasing even more quickly than it did during the Great Depression—with businesses shuttering and workers laid off at a pace unprecedented in U.S. history—defaults are expected to be imminent on everything from corporate debt to mortgage payments.
As a result, some economists say, the more appropriate response should be a broad-based “holiday,” to use a Depression-era term, suspending foreclosures, evictions, bankruptcies, and other contractual obligations that would cause long-term damage to the economy. The federal government should step in, possibly invoking implicit force majeure clauses in private contracts, to guarantee such suspensions of debt payment and also to ensure that the millions of workers laid off or furloughed are paid.
“The very term ‘stimulus’ is indicative that people don’t understand the nature of this downturn,” said the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University. “There’s no awareness of this on Capitol Hill at all. In 2008 we were worried about the potential consequences of a credit freeze. Then it was top-down: a freeze of the banking system. But this is bottom-up and has not been adequately talked about: If workers don’t have wages, they can’t pay their bills. They’ll be buying food [with stimulus money], but their balance sheet is still going to be ruined.
“The answer is we need no evictions, no foreclosures on all properties, and the government should guarantee pay,” Stiglitz told Foreign Policy. Credit card companies should also be pressed to issue “a stay on interest on all debt.”
The Trump administration has declined to apply pressure directly to commercial lenders, announcing last week that mortgages guaranteed through the Federal Housing Administration and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would not result in foreclosures or evictions for at least 60 days. The giant rescue plan that was completed shortly after midnight Wednesday would funnel out enormous amounts of cash to individuals and businesses, but with no assurances about what happens in the medium to long term to their jobs or debt obligations. It would grant about $500 billion in direct payments to people, in two phases of checks of up to $1,200 per individual making up to $75,000 a year. Additional payments for families with children could total $3,000 for a family of four. Another $500 billion, the most intensively negotiated portion, would go to corporations for unspecified purposes, to be overseen by an inspector general and congressional panel. The package would also reportedly grant immediate tax rebates of up to $1,200 per taxpayer; offer $350 billion subsidized loans to small businesses that maintain their payrolls and direct loans to the hardest-hit industries; relax income tax rules and deadlines; and give financial aid to students, schools, and colleges.
Unemployment insurance benefits in the bill would give recipients 100 percent of their salary for an extended period, but Stiglitz and other economists worry that such indirect methods requiring workers to apply online could crash the system. “I worry if we have the capacity to deliver checks to everybody in two weeks, or two months. I also worry whether the unemployment insurance system is capable of expanding tenfold in two weeks,” Stiglitz said.
Some economists say the Danish approach of directly guaranteeing the better part of salaries through companies, also recently adopted to differing degrees by the German and British governments, is a better remedy. Last Friday, Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak, announced an unprecedented intervention in the British economy that would cover 80 percent of worker salaries for at least the next three months up to $2,900 a month, a figure pegged at more than the average income. Earlier, the Danish government said that companies that would otherwise be forced to cut staff by 30 percent or lose more than 50 people will be covered for 75 percent of their wage bills for three months. The German government, meanwhile, is planning to expand a program to guarantee wages and prohibit eviction due to not paying rent between April 1 and Sept. 30.
“Keeping workers on the payroll, with the cost covered by the Federal government, is very important,” said the Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik, president-elect of the International Economic Association. “It is essential to instill confidence and reduce the insecurity of job loss that will otherwise result, even with generous unemployment compensation. So yes, the Danish (and German, and UK) way is the right way to go. There should be a separate facility to help small and medium sized businesses to help with their liabilities.”
The G-7 nations on Tuesday issued a common call from finance ministers and central banks pledging “coordination on our dynamic domestic and international policy efforts” against the health and economic impact of the virus. And G-20 leaders are expected to deliver an “action plan” later this week. But in practice, the United States has gone its own way. Trump, in particular, has been notably reluctant to inject the federal government too much into economic activity or health responses, declining to mandate anything from industry despite signing the Defense Production Act last week. On Tuesday, Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Peter Gaynor said the government for the first time would use the new act to order about 60,000 test kits.
Stiglitz said the government could work with private companies through the tax system, since they have to fill out a quarterly return anyway, supplying them with a new tax form so that reimbursement to the companies for laid-off workers is simply subtracted from what they owe. “Denmark has done it most clearly,” he said. “They told employers to send workers you don’t want home, lay them off, but pay them, and we’ll pay you.”
Other economists agree that an unprecedentedly swift shutdown of economic activity calls for an unprecedented response by the government. “We are in worse times than in anybody’s memory,” said Lawrence White of New York University, who noted that the devastation of the Great Depression took four years to ruin the economy while the current stoppage is happening in weeks. Both lenders and borrowers in the debt equation need to be encouraged or ordered to stand off from using the typical means of bankruptcy and restructuring. “I can imagine a faster process,” he said, to “encourage shops to reopen and provide liquidity and loans, whatever is needed to get entrepreneurial processes going again.”
Such efforts are needed now because even in the best case, said White, “I can’t imagine a sharp ‘V’ [shaped recovery] where we declare the coronavirus threat over. It ain’t gonna be full employment on June 1.”
March 25: This story was updated with news of the rescue package.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-24--South Asia’s Looming Disaster

South Asia’s Looming Disaster

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s South Asia Brief , a weekly look at the most important news from Afghanistan , Bangladesh , Bhutan , India , Maldives , Nepal , Pakistan , and Sri Lanka—a region that comprises a quarter of the world ’ s population .
Given the severity of the coronavirus crisis , this week we ’ re focusing almost entirely on how the region is coping with COVID-19 and what happens next .
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Tuesday , please sign up here .
Most South Asian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or even earlier , but the number of confirmed coronavirus cases keep rising , particularly in Pakistan and India .
This trend suggests that the region has likely moved from phase two of the virus outbreak , when transmission is traced to people who have arrived from foreign countries , to phase three , when the disease is spreading more widely among communities .
“ We don ’ t have public evidence we ’ re in phase three in India , ” said Ramanan Laxminarayan , the director of the Washington , D.C.-based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phone from New Delhi .
“ But there ’ s anecdotal evidence .
The data and modeling show we should be in phase three .
And it ’ s very hard to prevent this next phase from taking place.
” We ’ ve seen this pattern in China , Iran , Western Europe , and the United States : The coronavirus spread starts off slow and then grows exponentially .
“ And by then you ’ re far behind , and catching up is really difficult , ” said Ashish Jha , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Jha believes it ’ s more likely that India has between 5,000 and 10,000 cases—10 or 20 times the official numbers—but that most are undetected due to limited testing .
If the number of cases doubles every five days , India and its neighbors are less than a month away from a potentially unmanageable number of cases and deaths .
It ’ s not as if South Asian countries aren ’ t taking action .
India , the region ’ s largest economy , has ground to a halt since the weekend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ orders seriously , shutting down domestic commercial flights and rail services .
In a televised address to the nation on Tuesday , Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a strict 21-day nationwide lockdown .
“ If we are not able to manage the next 21 days , we will be pushed back by 21 years , ” he warned .
“ For 21 days , forget what it means to step outside your home.
” In Pakistan , the military has been called in to impose restrictions on public gatherings .
Nepal ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least March 31 , with people barred from leaving their homes except to buy medicine or groceries .
In Sri Lanka , the government extended a nationwide curfew to promote social distancing and accepted a $ 500 million loan from China for its public health efforts .
Even in Afghanistan , where the Taliban are skeptical of global health organizations , a spokesman for the militant group confirmed that it was ready to cooperate with World Health Organization .
“ The lockdowns are pretty serious measures , ” said Laxminarayan , referring to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are taking social distancing seriously .
But it ’ s not so easy to practice physical distancing in the way that ’ s needed.
” Last week , I pointed out how India has lower ratios of hospital beds and doctors per capita than developed economies—a shortage that also holds true for its neighbors .
Barring the Maldives and Afghanistan , most South Asian countries underspend on health care .
Bangladesh , Pakistan , and India spend 2.4 percent , 2.8 percent , and 3.7 percent of their GDPs respectively on health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Italy and 17.1 percent for the United States .
But there are several other problems that will manifest as the region attempts to slow the spread of the coronavirus .
First , consider the workforce .
According to data from the International Labor Organization , in India , Nepal , and Pakistan , a respective 80.9 percent , 90.7 percent , and 77.6 percent of the population is employed in the informal sector—working for daily wages , usually without contracts , health care , or pensions .
( Bangladesh is a relative bright @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the informal sector . )
For most of these informal workers , taking a day or two off from work—let alone a month—can be ruinous .
It ’ s quite likely that these workers will continue to seek work , potentially exposing themselves to the coronavirus .
Second , social distancing is easier said than done for migrant workers and slum-dwellers who live in close quarters with several other people , often with shared public toilets and limited access to clean water and disinfectants .
South Asia has some of the world ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most densely populated ones : Mumbai , Kolkata , and Karachi are the top three .
That makes unfettered community spread more likely .
South Asia ’ s cities are also among the world ’ s most polluted , meaning people are likely to suffer from asthma or other respiratory illnesses , weakening their bodily response to COVID-19 .
In other words , things will get much worse before they get better .
Harvard ’ s Jha predicts that as many as 40 percent of Indians could get infected with the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 400 million infected , up to 70 million needing some hospital treatment , and as many as 8 million to 20 million needing intensive care in hospitals .
“ That ’ s not fathomable in terms of what the hospital system can possibly accommodate , ” Jha told FP .
“ A lot of people could die outside of health care facilities.
” Pompeo in Kabul .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew home after spending Monday in Kabul trying to mend fences between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his rival @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , leading Pompeo to announce a $ 1 billion cut in U.S. aid to Afghanistan .
Pompeo did not make clear which areas the $ 1 billion cut would impact .
Facebook and India .
The Financial Times reports that Facebook is in talks to buy a stake in India ’ s Reliance Jio telecommunications firm , a deal that would be worth several billion dollars .
Jio , which has captured a large cellular market share in India by slashing costs , is valued at more than $ 60 billion .
India @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important markets , with more than 400 million users of services such as WhatsApp , Facebook , and Instagram .
Zia ’ s out of jail .
Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia , now 74 , has been released from jail on humanitarian grounds due to deteriorating health .
She was convicted in a corruption case in February 2018 .
Zia and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party say the case—brought by the government of her longtime rival , Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—were fabricated .
Delhi crime .
Last Friday , India executed four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ murder of a young woman on a Delhi bus in 2012 .
The case prompted widespread protests and some changes to Indian law regarding rape trials .
The executions mark the first use of capital punishment for sex crimes in India since 2004 .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of South Asia Brief here .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, a weekly look at the most important news from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—a region that comprises a quarter of the world’s population. Given the severity of the coronavirus crisis, this week we’re focusing almost entirely on how the region is coping with COVID-19 and what happens next.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, a weekly look at the most important news from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—a region that comprises a quarter of the world’s population. Given the severity of the coronavirus crisis, this week we’re focusing almost entirely on how the region is coping with COVID-19 and what happens next.
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Tuesday, please sign up here.
Community Spread Has Begun
Most South Asian countries locked their borders down last week or even earlier, but the number of confirmed coronavirus cases keep rising, particularly in Pakistan and India. This trend suggests that the region has likely moved from phase two of the virus outbreak, when transmission is traced to people who have arrived from foreign countries, to phase three, when the disease is spreading more widely among communities.
“We don’t have public evidence we’re in phase three in India,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan, the director of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Disease Dynamics, on the phone from New Delhi. “But there’s anecdotal evidence. The data and modeling show we should be in phase three. And it’s very hard to prevent this next phase from taking place.”
We’ve seen this pattern in China, Iran, Western Europe, and the United States: The coronavirus spread starts off slow and then grows exponentially. “And by then you’re far behind, and catching up is really difficult,” said Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. Jha believes it’s more likely that India has between 5,000 and 10,000 cases—10 or 20 times the official numbers—but that most are undetected due to limited testing. If the number of cases doubles every five days, India and its neighbors are less than a month away from a potentially unmanageable number of cases and deaths.
It’s not as if South Asian countries aren’t taking action. India, the region’s largest economy, has ground to a halt since the weekend. Authorities urged people to take curfew orders seriously, shutting down domestic commercial flights and rail services. In a televised address to the nation on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a strict 21-day nationwide lockdown. “If we are not able to manage the next 21 days, we will be pushed back by 21 years,” he warned. “For 21 days, forget what it means to step outside your home.”
In Pakistan, the military has been called in to impose restrictions on public gatherings. Nepal’s government declared a countrywide lockdown until at least March 31, with people barred from leaving their homes except to buy medicine or groceries. In Sri Lanka, the government extended a nationwide curfew to promote social distancing and accepted a $500 million loan from China for its public health efforts. Even in Afghanistan, where the Taliban are skeptical of global health organizations, a spokesman for the militant group confirmed that it was ready to cooperate with World Health Organization.
“The lockdowns are pretty serious measures,” said Laxminarayan, referring to India’s move. “And people are taking social distancing seriously. But it’s not so easy to practice physical distancing in the way that’s needed.”
Last week, I pointed out how India has lower ratios of hospital beds and doctors per capita than developed economies—a shortage that also holds true for its neighbors. Barring the Maldives and Afghanistan, most South Asian countries underspend on health care. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India spend 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent, and 3.7 percent of their GDPs respectively on health expenditure, compared to 8.9 percent for Italy and 17.1 percent for the United States.
But there are several other problems that will manifest as the region attempts to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
First, consider the workforce. According to data from the International Labor Organization, in India, Nepal, and Pakistan, a respective 80.9 percent, 90.7 percent, and 77.6 percent of the population is employed in the informal sector—working for daily wages, usually without contracts, health care, or pensions. (Bangladesh is a relative bright spot, with only 48.9 percent in the informal sector.) For most of these informal workers, taking a day or two off from work—let alone a month—can be ruinous. It’s quite likely that these workers will continue to seek work, potentially exposing themselves to the coronavirus.
Second, social distancing is easier said than done for migrant workers and slum-dwellers who live in close quarters with several other people, often with shared public toilets and limited access to clean water and disinfectants. South Asia has some of the world’s most populated cities, and also the most densely populated ones: Mumbai, Kolkata, and Karachi are the top three. That makes unfettered community spread more likely. South Asia’s cities are also among the world’s most polluted, meaning people are likely to suffer from asthma or other respiratory illnesses, weakening their bodily response to COVID-19.
In other words, things will get much worse before they get better. Harvard’s Jha predicts that as many as 40 percent of Indians could get infected with the coronavirus, which could mean between 300 million and 400 million infected, up to 70 million needing some hospital treatment, and as many as 8 million to 20 million needing intensive care in hospitals. “That’s not fathomable in terms of what the hospital system can possibly accommodate,” Jha told FP. “A lot of people could die outside of health care facilities.”
In Other News
Pompeo in Kabul. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew home after spending Monday in Kabul trying to mend fences between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his rival, Abdullah Abdullah. The talks failed, leading Pompeo to announce a $1 billion cut in U.S. aid to Afghanistan. Pompeo did not make clear which areas the $1 billion cut would impact.
Facebook and India. The Financial Times reports that Facebook is in talks to buy a stake in India’s Reliance Jio telecommunications firm, a deal that would be worth several billion dollars. Jio, which has captured a large cellular market share in India by slashing costs, is valued at more than $60 billion. India is one of Facebook’s most important markets, with more than 400 million users of services such as WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram.
Zia’s out of jail. Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, now 74, has been released from jail on humanitarian grounds due to deteriorating health. She was convicted in a corruption case in February 2018. Zia and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party say the case—brought by the government of her longtime rival, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—were fabricated.
Delhi crime. Last Friday, India executed four men convicted for the gang rape and murder of a young woman on a Delhi bus in 2012. The case prompted widespread protests and some changes to Indian law regarding rape trials. The executions mark the first use of capital punishment for sex crimes in India since 2004.
That’s it for this week.
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foreignpolicy--2020-03-24--U.N. Calls for Rolling Back Sanctions to Battle Pandemic

United Nations leadership called for rolling back international sanctions regimes around the world , saying they are heightening the health risks for millions of people and weakening the global effort to contain the spread of the new coronavirus .
The appeal reflects mounting concerns that sanctions regimes may be impeding efforts in Cuba , Iran , North Korea , Venezuela , and Zimbabwe to battle the coronavirus , and enhancing the prospects of the pathogen ’ s spread to other countries .
It comes as China and Russia , which is subject to U.S. and European sanctions for its invasion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calls for an easing of sanctions .
“ I am encouraging the waiving of sanctions imposed on countries to ensure access to food , essential health supplies , and COVID-19 medical support .
This is the time for solidarity not exclusion , ” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres wrote in a letter to the G-20 economic powers .
“ Let us remember that we are only as strong as the weakest health system in our interconnected world.
” But the appeals are unlikely , however , to gain traction in the U.N. Security Council @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little serious thought given to the prospect of easing sanctions .
Asked if there was growing opposition to the sanctions , one senior diplomat said , “ No , not at all .
The Russians and the Chinese are being cynically political and opportunistic.
” “ I would say there is no serious , coordinated response being considered in the U.N. about sanctions , ” said one Security Council diplomat .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.N. high commissioner for human rights , also said on Tuesday that “ in a context of global pandemic , impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us.
” “ At this crucial time , both for global public health reasons , and to support the rights and lives of millions of people in these countries , sectoral sanctions should be eased or suspended , ” she said in a statement .
The statement noted that more than 1,800 Iranians , including 50 medics , have died since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , and that human rights reports have indicated that sanctions have impeded the access to “ essential medicines and medical equipment—including respirators and protective equipment for health-care workers.
” “ The epidemic in Iran is also spreading to neighbouring countries which will strain health services in countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan , ” the statement reads .
The growing calls for sanctions relief pose a fresh challenge to the Trump administration , which has relied heavily on the use of sanctions as part of its maximum pressure campaign to coerce Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States .
For the past year , China and Russia have been advocating an easing of sanctions against North Korea .
And earlier this week , China ’ s U.N .
Ambassador Zhang Jun blamed U.S. sanctions for harming Iranians .
“ Iranian people are suffering severely from the pandemic , ” he wrote on Twitter .
“ The unilateral sanctions made the situation even worse.
” The push for sanctions relief may be able to gain some traction in Europe , where countries have bridled at U.S. efforts to prohibit their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where some members of the European Union , like Italy , have been increasingly tired of maintaining sanctions on Russia for its occupation of the Crimea , according to Richard Gowan , the U.N. expert for the International Crisis Group .
The council has been increasingly deadlocked in recent months over a range of issues , from Iran and Libya to North Korea and Syria .
The recent shutdown of the Security Council has resulted in a series of disputes over the permissibility of debating council matters remotely to the question of whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resolution or statement raising concern about the impact of the pandemic on international peace and security .
“ With the Security Council in its current state of lockdown , the idea of a really constructive debate on sanctions feels unlikely , ” Gowan said .
An effort late last year by China and Russia to adopt a resolution easing sanctions on North Korea “ fizzled ” he added .
“ My sense is the U.S. , in particular , will be very wary of making any concessions on sanctions that they worry they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the road.
” Earlier this week , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defended U.S. sanctions policy , saying that the sanctions do not target imports of food , medicine , and medical equipment , or other humanitarian goods .
He said that Iran has been able to “ import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January.
” “ Fact : As Iranian regime officials ask for more funds , it is important to note that since 2012 , Iran has spent over $ 16 billion on terror abroad , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuclear deal ] to fill up its proxies ’ coffers , ” Pompeo said in a statement .
But U.N. and private relief agencies have raised concerns that U.S. financial sanctions have scared off banks and other financial institutions from doing any business with agencies that provide relief in countries such as Iran and North Korea .
Jan Egeland , the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council , called this week for an end to “ all blanket economic sanctions , ” saying they were impeding efforts to come to the aid of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Borrell , the European Union ’ s foreign policy chief , said that more companies need to be persuaded that they can support relief efforts in sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela .
“ This has to be reaffirmed because many believe that if they participate in this kind of humanitarian trade they can be sanctioned , ” he said .
“ This is not the case but it has to be reaffirmed in order for everybody to understand that they can participate in this kind of humanitarian help .
”

United Nations leadership called for rolling back international sanctions regimes around the world, saying they are heightening the health risks for millions of people and weakening the global effort to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
United Nations leadership called for rolling back international sanctions regimes around the world, saying they are heightening the health risks for millions of people and weakening the global effort to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
The appeal reflects mounting concerns that sanctions regimes may be impeding efforts in Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe to battle the coronavirus, and enhancing the prospects of the pathogen’s spread to other countries. It comes as China and Russia, which is subject to U.S. and European sanctions for its invasion of Crimea, have also stepped up calls for an easing of sanctions.
“I am encouraging the waiving of sanctions imposed on countries to ensure access to food, essential health supplies, and COVID-19 medical support. This is the time for solidarity not exclusion,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres wrote in a letter to the G-20 economic powers. “Let us remember that we are only as strong as the weakest health system in our interconnected world.”
But the appeals are unlikely, however, to gain traction in the U.N. Security Council, where diplomats say there has been little serious thought given to the prospect of easing sanctions. Asked if there was growing opposition to the sanctions, one senior diplomat said, “No, not at all. The Russians and the Chinese are being cynically political and opportunistic.”
“I would say there is no serious, coordinated response being considered in the U.N. about sanctions,” said one Security Council diplomat.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, also said on Tuesday that “in a context of global pandemic, impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us.”
“At this crucial time, both for global public health reasons, and to support the rights and lives of millions of people in these countries, sectoral sanctions should be eased or suspended,” she said in a statement.
The statement noted that more than 1,800 Iranians, including 50 medics, have died since the first cases appeared there five weeks ago, and that human rights reports have indicated that sanctions have impeded the access to “essential medicines and medical equipment—including respirators and protective equipment for health-care workers.”
“The epidemic in Iran is also spreading to neighbouring countries which will strain health services in countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan,” the statement reads.
The growing calls for sanctions relief pose a fresh challenge to the Trump administration, which has relied heavily on the use of sanctions as part of its maximum pressure campaign to coerce Iran and North Korea into negotiating with the United States. For the past year, China and Russia have been advocating an easing of sanctions against North Korea. And earlier this week, China’s U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun blamed U.S. sanctions for harming Iranians. “Iranian people are suffering severely from the pandemic,” he wrote on Twitter. “The unilateral sanctions made the situation even worse.”
The push for sanctions relief may be able to gain some traction in Europe, where countries have bridled at U.S. efforts to prohibit their companies from doing business with Iran and where some members of the European Union, like Italy, have been increasingly tired of maintaining sanctions on Russia for its occupation of the Crimea, according to Richard Gowan, the U.N. expert for the International Crisis Group.
The council has been increasingly deadlocked in recent months over a range of issues, from Iran and Libya to North Korea and Syria. The recent shutdown of the Security Council has resulted in a series of disputes over the permissibility of debating council matters remotely to the question of whether the 15-nation security body should adopt a resolution or statement raising concern about the impact of the pandemic on international peace and security.
“With the Security Council in its current state of lockdown, the idea of a really constructive debate on sanctions feels unlikely,” Gowan said. An effort late last year by China and Russia to adopt a resolution easing sanctions on North Korea “fizzled” he added. “My sense is the U.S., in particular, will be very wary of making any concessions on sanctions that they worry they will not be able to reverse down the road.”
Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defended U.S. sanctions policy, saying that the sanctions do not target imports of food, medicine, and medical equipment, or other humanitarian goods. He said that Iran has been able to “import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January.”
“Fact: As Iranian regime officials ask for more funds, it is important to note that since 2012, Iran has spent over $16 billion on terror abroad, and used sanctions relief from the [2015 nuclear deal] to fill up its proxies’ coffers,” Pompeo said in a statement.
But U.N. and private relief agencies have raised concerns that U.S. financial sanctions have scared off banks and other financial institutions from doing any business with agencies that provide relief in countries such as Iran and North Korea. Jan Egeland, the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, called this week for an end to “all blanket economic sanctions,” saying they were impeding efforts to come to the aid of the neediest in the pandemic.
Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said that more companies need to be persuaded that they can support relief efforts in sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela.
“This has to be reaffirmed because many believe that if they participate in this kind of humanitarian trade they can be sanctioned,” he said. “This is not the case but it has to be reaffirmed in order for everybody to understand that they can participate in this kind of humanitarian help.”