foreignpolicy--2020-02-28--Cash-Strapped Lebanon Isn’t Ready for the Coronavirus

Fear of the COVID-19 epidemic has spread across the Middle East after Iran recorded the highest number of deaths from the virus outside of China this week .
The high mortality rate indicates the outbreak might be larger than Iran ’ s official recorded figures .
Saudi Arabia has responded by banning foreign pilgrims from traveling to the holy sites of Mecca and Medina .
Lebanon has confirmed three cases so far , people who had returned from trips to Iran within the past week .
The threat could not come at a worse time : The country is teetering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from several months of anti-government protests .
Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war , with a looming $ 1.2 billion Eurobond payment on March 9 .
If the government defaults , it would deal another major blow .
These financial shortcomings limit the country ’ s ability to respond to the coronavirus , from hiring enough trained health workers to conduct fever screenings at the airport to equipping hospitals with specialized gear such as respirators for quarantine areas .
Coming up with the human and capital resources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put an already ailing health care system in dire straits .
The state of the economy has already overwhelmed Lebanon ’ s public health care system .
Medical suppliers are unable to import the products they need due to a shortage of U.S. dollars caused in part by a slowdown of foreign currency injections into the banking sector .
Health care is another item on the list of demonstrators ’ public grievances , with medical professionals decrying corruption and inattention from the government when it comes to providing hospitals with what they need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s failure to reimburse hospitals for care provided to patients who should be covered by social security and military health funds , according to Human Rights Watch .
The procedures put in place so far to prevent the spread of the virus inside Lebanon show the health care system ’ s strain .
Fearing shortages , the government has banned the export of medical supplies to protect from infectious disease , such as face masks .
People who arrive in Lebanon from countries with outbreaks are screened for fevers and told to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Ministry of Public Health .
But there is no system in place to monitor them once they ’ ve left the airport , in contrast to countries such as South Korea , where potential sufferers were required to use an app to trace their movements .
There are also limited resources available for mass isolation measures if people do show symptoms of the virus , according to Salim Adib , an epidemiologist and consultant to the Ministry of Public Health .
The next few weeks will be crucial for determining the system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ There ’ s no cash to do anything , including for new public health measures , ” said Adib .
“ If we needed to quarantine a lot of people , we would be at a loss.
” The problem of limited resources is compounded by a disjointed response from a government in flux .
Since the anti-government protests began in October 2019 , Lebanon has undergone a political overhaul .
Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned less than two weeks after the demonstrations started .
Lebanon ’ s president named Hassan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cabinet was formed in late January , ending three months of political deadlock .
Lebanon ’ s new government is controlled by the Iran-backed Hezbollah party and its allies .
The political turmoil has coincided with the spread of the coronavirus .
While Lebanon ’ s leadership focused on political restructuring and the economic crisis , they missed a crucial opportunity to fully develop an emergency response plan to the impending health crisis .
That plan should have included procedures for mass quarantine and for monitoring people returning from countries with outbreaks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy professor at the American University of Beirut .
“ This has not been managed the way it should have been managed , ” he said .
The Lebanese government has appealed to the World Health Organization for assistance in building additional quarantine facilities .
But fighting an epidemic requires a level of government coordination that El-Jardali said he has not seen so far from the country ’ s leadership .
“ When dealing with outbreaks and pandemics , business is not as usual , ” he said .
“ We don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing here .
We only have time to do , and [ to ] do what is right.
” A coronavirus outbreak would put Lebanon ’ s vulnerable populations at especially high risk .
The country hosts the most refugees per capita in the world , including more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees and significant numbers of Ethiopians , Iraqis , Palestinians , and Sudanese .
Overcrowded conditions and poor sanitation in camps and settlements could make them a breeding ground for disease .
The risk extends to Lebanon ’ s poor .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Lebanon ’ s population could fall below the poverty line if economic conditions worsen .
Communities with limited access to formal health care may be less likely to report virus symptoms—another challenge for Lebanon ’ s epidemic response .
On Friday , Lebanon halted travel for nonresidents from countries with the coronavirus , including China , Italy , South Korea—and Iran .
Given the government ’ s relationship with Tehran , the travel restrictions are a political matter , said Mohanad Hage Ali , the director of communications at the Carnegie Middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government had stopped some flights to Iran , including those for pilgrims .
But Hage Ali said he had not seen details about how the measures would be put into practice .
“ To what extent will it be implemented , that ’ s the question , ” he said .
The technical limitations and political inefficiencies are fueling the public dread that has accompanied Lebanon ’ s monthslong protest movement .
“ [ The ] Lebanese airport is poorly equipped , our governors are incompetent , our hospitals are facing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tweeted in January .
“ We ’ ll be doomed.
” Others are less concerned with the virus itself .
Mohamad Zreik , a Lebanese doctoral candidate at Central China Normal University in Wuhan who returned home in January , said he sees the coronavirus threat in Lebanon as relatively small compared to political and economic concerns .
He is more worried about his friends under lockdown in China .
“ They are suffering there , ” Zreik said .
For now , most people in Lebanon are following the health ministry ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the epidemiologist .
He has counseled people to follow the same precautious as they would for the flu .
Some recommendations , like avoiding hosting big gatherings , aren ’ t a problem for people who are already strapped for cash .
In this way , the public ’ s response to the virus is less related to the health risks than it is to the familiar feeling of mounting turmoil .
“ It ’ s more related to the existential anguish we are living every day now , ” Adib said @

Fear of the COVID-19 epidemic has spread across the Middle East after Iran recorded the highest number of deaths from the virus outside of China this week. The high mortality rate indicates the outbreak might be larger than Iran’s official recorded figures. Saudi Arabia has responded by banning foreign pilgrims from traveling to the holy sites of Mecca and Medina. Lebanon has confirmed three cases so far, people who had returned from recent trips to Iran. The threat could not come at a worse time: The country is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and reeling from several months of anti-government protests .
Fear of the COVID-19 epidemic has spread across the Middle East after Iran recorded the highest number of deaths from the virus outside of China this week. The high mortality rate indicates the outbreak might be larger than Iran’s official recorded figures. Saudi Arabia has responded by banning foreign pilgrims from traveling to the holy sites of Mecca and Medina. Lebanon has confirmed three cases so far, people who had returned from recent trips to Iran. The threat could not come at a worse time: The country is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and reeling from several months of anti-government protests.
Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war, with a looming $1.2 billion Eurobond payment on March 9. If the government defaults, it would deal another major blow. These financial shortcomings limit the country’s ability to respond to the coronavirus, from hiring enough trained health workers to conduct fever screenings at the airport to equipping hospitals with specialized gear such as respirators for quarantine areas. Coming up with the human and capital resources needed to handle severe virus cases would put an already ailing health care system in dire straits.
The state of the economy has already overwhelmed Lebanon’s public health care system. Medical suppliers are unable to import the products they need due to a shortage of U.S. dollars caused in part by a slowdown of foreign currency injections into the banking sector. Health care is another item on the list of demonstrators’ public grievances, with medical professionals decrying corruption and inattention from the government when it comes to providing hospitals with what they need. Doctors are also protesting the government’s failure to reimburse hospitals for care provided to patients who should be covered by social security and military health funds, according to Human Rights Watch.
The procedures put in place so far to prevent the spread of the virus inside Lebanon show the health care system’s strain. Fearing shortages, the government has banned the export of medical supplies to protect from infectious disease, such as face masks. People who arrive in Lebanon from countries with outbreaks are screened for fevers and told to self-quarantine at home and follow guidelines from the Ministry of Public Health. But there is no system in place to monitor them once they’ve left the airport, in contrast to countries such as South Korea, where potential sufferers were required to use an app to trace their movements.
There are also limited resources available for mass isolation measures if people do show symptoms of the virus, according to Salim Adib, an epidemiologist and consultant to the Ministry of Public Health. The next few weeks will be crucial for determining the system’s ability to handle an outbreak. “There’s no cash to do anything, including for new public health measures,” said Adib. “If we needed to quarantine a lot of people, we would be at a loss.”
The problem of limited resources is compounded by a disjointed response from a government in flux. Since the anti-government protests began in October 2019, Lebanon has undergone a political overhaul. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned less than two weeks after the demonstrations started. Lebanon’s president named Hassan Diab as prime minister and a new cabinet was formed in late January, ending three months of political deadlock. Lebanon’s new government is controlled by the Iran-backed Hezbollah party and its allies.
The political turmoil has coincided with the spread of the coronavirus. While Lebanon’s leadership focused on political restructuring and the economic crisis, they missed a crucial opportunity to fully develop an emergency response plan to the impending health crisis. That plan should have included procedures for mass quarantine and for monitoring people returning from countries with outbreaks, according to Fadi El-Jardali, a health policy professor at the American University of Beirut. “This has not been managed the way it should have been managed,” he said.
The Lebanese government has appealed to the World Health Organization for assistance in building additional quarantine facilities. But fighting an epidemic requires a level of government coordination that El-Jardali said he has not seen so far from the country’s leadership. “When dealing with outbreaks and pandemics, business is not as usual,” he said. “We don’t have the luxury of learning by doing here. We only have time to do, and [to] do what is right.”
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A coronavirus outbreak would put Lebanon’s vulnerable populations at especially high risk. The country hosts the most refugees per capita in the world, including more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees and significant numbers of Ethiopians, Iraqis, Palestinians, and Sudanese. Overcrowded conditions and poor sanitation in camps and settlements could make them a breeding ground for disease.
The risk extends to Lebanon’s poor. The World Bank warns that around half of Lebanon’s population could fall below the poverty line if economic conditions worsen. Communities with limited access to formal health care may be less likely to report virus symptoms—another challenge for Lebanon’s epidemic response.
On Friday, Lebanon halted travel for nonresidents from countries with the coronavirus, including China, Italy, South Korea—and Iran. Given the government’s relationship with Tehran, the travel restrictions are a political matter, said Mohanad Hage Ali, the director of communications at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. Initially, the government had stopped some flights to Iran, including those for pilgrims. But Hage Ali said he had not seen details about how the measures would be put into practice. “To what extent will it be implemented, that’s the question,” he said.
The technical limitations and political inefficiencies are fueling the public dread that has accompanied Lebanon’s monthslong protest movement. “[The] Lebanese airport is poorly equipped, our governors are incompetent, our hospitals are facing a shortage of equipment,” one person tweeted in January. “We’ll be doomed.”
Others are less concerned with the virus itself. Mohamad Zreik, a Lebanese doctoral candidate at Central China Normal University in Wuhan who returned home in January, said he sees the coronavirus threat in Lebanon as relatively small compared to political and economic concerns. He is more worried about his friends under lockdown in China. “They are suffering there,” Zreik said.
For now, most people in Lebanon are following the health ministry’s precautions as advised, said Adib, the epidemiologist. He has counseled people to take the same precautions as they would for the flu. Some recommendations, like avoiding hosting big gatherings, aren’t a problem for people who are already strapped for cash. In this way, the public’s response to the virus is less related to the health risks than it is to the familiar feeling of mounting turmoil. “It’s more related to the existential anguish we are living every day now,” Adib said.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-28--A Grunt’s View of U.N. Leadership

A Grunt’s View of U.N. Leadership

The vast majority of U.N. workers—89 percent—say they are proud to work for their international organization , which keeps the peace in far-flung war zones , tends to natural and humanitarian disasters , and promotes the global response to issues such as climate change and pandemics .
But drill down deeper into the lower ranks of the U.N. Secretariat and you will find far less confidence in the leadership ’ s ability to position the world body to confront the challenges ahead .
When he came into office just over three years ago , U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres undertook a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restructuring divisions that deal with peace and security , development and management .
So , how has that been going ?
Depends who you ask .
According to a recent internal U.N. staff survey—which we are highlighting as Foreign Policy ’ s Document of the Week—the U.N. top brass provided a rosier picture of the reforms they were leading than those who were tasked with carrying them out .
For instance , 75 percent of the U.N. ’ s most senior officials—undersecretaries general—saw initial improvements from the management reforms .
Drill down into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you will see that only 24 to 27 percent agree .
The picture is only gloomier for reforms in the fields of development and peace and security .
For instance , 60 percent of undersecretaries general viewed the reform of the U.N. peace and security sector favorably .
Only 18 to 21 percent of lower-ranking professional staff agreed .
It ’ s a similar story for development reforms .
Some 70 percent of undersecretaries general viewed the reform favorably .
Only 18 to 23 percent of low-ranking professional staff viewed it favorably .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistant secretaries general and undersecretaries general thought they were open to adopting good ideas whether they were proposed by senior or junior staff .
The more junior professionals may quibble .
Only 50 percent of entry-level professional staffers—designated P-1s—believed that good ideas were adopted regardless of who put them forward .
Only a small percentage of employees—9 percent—from that same group felt it was safe to challenge the status quo in the U.N. Secretariat .
Some 60 percent of undersecretaries general disagreed .
But they got little support from their deputies .
Only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was safe to challenge the status quo .
There was plenty of good news in the survey—which was based on responses from 18,742 U.N. employees .
In 2019 , 79 percent of U.N. workers saw a “ clear link ” between their jobs and the broader goals of the U.N. agency they served , an improvement over 2017 .
Eighty-three percent felt comfortable asking their superiors for help when they struggled with their work .
But the U.N. saw a decline over the past two years in the percentage of workers—from 64 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a staff member .
There was also a drop in the percentage of workers—from 72 to 69 percent—who felt that men and women were treated equally in the workplace .
A majority of respondents—58 percent—said they would prefer to keep their jobs at the U.N. even if they were offered a “ comparable position with similar pay and benefits elsewhere.
” But that figure dipped slightly , from 61 percent in 2017 .

The vast majority of U.N. workers—89 percent—say they are proud to work for their international organization, which keeps the peace in far-flung war zones, tends to natural and humanitarian disasters, and promotes the global response to issues such as climate change and pandemics.
The vast majority of U.N. workers—89 percent—say they are proud to work for their international organization, which keeps the peace in far-flung war zones, tends to natural and humanitarian disasters, and promotes the global response to issues such as climate change and pandemics.
But drill down deeper into the lower ranks of the U.N. Secretariat and you will find far less confidence in the leadership’s ability to position the world body to confront the challenges ahead. When he came into office just over three years ago, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres undertook a major reform of the U.N. Secretariat, restructuring divisions that deal with peace and security, development and management.
So, how has that been going? Depends who you ask.
According to a recent internal U.N. staff survey—which we are highlighting as Foreign Policy’s Document of the Week—the U.N. top brass provided a rosier picture of the reforms they were leading than those who were tasked with carrying them out.
For instance, 75 percent of the U.N.’s most senior officials—undersecretaries general—saw initial improvements from the management reforms. Drill down into the lower ranks of professional staff and you will see that only 24 to 27 percent agree.
The picture is only gloomier for reforms in the fields of development and peace and security.
For instance, 60 percent of undersecretaries general viewed the reform of the U.N. peace and security sector favorably. Only 18 to 21 percent of lower-ranking professional staff agreed. It’s a similar story for development reforms. Some 70 percent of undersecretaries general viewed the reform favorably. Only 18 to 23 percent of low-ranking professional staff viewed it favorably.
Unsurprisingly, 90 to 91 percent of assistant secretaries general and undersecretaries general thought they were open to adopting good ideas whether they were proposed by senior or junior staff.
The more junior professionals may quibble.
Only 50 percent of entry-level professional staffers—designated P-1s—believed that good ideas were adopted regardless of who put them forward. Only a small percentage of employees—9 percent—from that same group felt it was safe to challenge the status quo in the U.N. Secretariat. Some 60 percent of undersecretaries general disagreed. But they got little support from their deputies. Only 38 percent of assistant secretaries general felt it was safe to challenge the status quo.
There was plenty of good news in the survey—which was based on responses from 18,742 U.N. employees. In 2019, 79 percent of U.N. workers saw a “clear link” between their jobs and the broader goals of the U.N. agency they served, an improvement over 2017. Eighty-three percent felt comfortable asking their superiors for help when they struggled with their work. But the U.N. saw a decline over the past two years in the percentage of workers—from 64 to 59 percent—who said they felt valued as a staff member. There was also a drop in the percentage of workers—from 72 to 69 percent—who felt that men and women were treated equally in the workplace.
A majority of respondents—58 percent—said they would prefer to keep their jobs at the U.N. even if they were offered a “comparable position with similar pay and benefits elsewhere.” But that figure dipped slightly, from 61 percent in 2017.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-28--Russians See Weekend Rally as Litmus Test

MOSCOW—Russians critical of President Vladimir Putin plan to gather in Moscow this weekend in a protest that could indicate just how much opposition there is to proposed changes to the constitution that would allow Putin to continue wielding power long after his term runs out in 2024 .
The gathering Saturday will mark five years since the assassination of the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov , an annual event that is permitted by authorities .
But Russia ’ s most prominent opposition leaders have called for mass turnout that would send a signal regarding the proposals Putin unveiled in January .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at how many people attend the Nemtsov march , ” Alexey Navalny , a leading opposition figure who has investigated high-level corruption for years , wrote on Twitter .
“ This will influence how brazenly they will pursue the operation to keep Putin in power .
This will influence the future of political prisoners.
” The call was echoed by other opposition politicians , including Ilya Yashin , who referenced both Nemtsov and Putin ’ s attempted power grab in his tweet .
Nemtsov , who had been working on a report examining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Ukraine , was gunned down on Feb. 27 , 2015 , as he strolled with his girlfriend along a bridge not far from the Kremlin .
He was a liberal politician who served as a deputy prime minister during Boris Yeltsin ’ s presidency and became one of Putin ’ s most prominent opponents .
In channeling Nemtsov , Russia ’ s fragmented opposition is hoping to show that the spirit of resistance is alive and well .
The demonstration is expected to be the first major street action by the opposition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last summer over local elections , which were dispersed by security forces .
“ One of the functions of the march is a head count : showing that the people are still here , ” said Ekaterina Schulmann , a Moscow-based political analyst .
“ Opposition-minded people need to gather and see each other to remind each other and the country that they exist.
” Thursday marked the fifth anniversary of Nemstov ’ s killing , which stunned Russia and sent a chill through the country ’ s civil society .
The annual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s political career and legacy and to call for a renewed investigation into his assassination .
In 2017 , five men from Chechnya were sentenced to prison for Nemtsov ’ s murder , but relatives and government critics suspect that the killing could have been ordered by the Kremlin .
Last week , the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe issued a report calling on Moscow to launch a new investigation , saying that the Russian authorities failed to determine who ordered the killing .
The annual rally has also provided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other political causes and to plant a flag for upcoming events in the country ’ s political calendar , such as regional elections slated for later this year and parliamentary elections in 2021 .
But coalescing around proposed changes to the constitution has so far proved elusive .
A January opinion poll from the Levada Center , an independent pollster based in Moscow , found that 47 percent of Russians believed Putin was using the referendum to expand his authorities and remain in power , and a poll released Friday found that only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amendments .
Still , there has been no pronounced backlash since the announcement last month .
Putin has since set up a working group of 75 doctors , politicians , musicians , actors , film directors , business people , sports figures , and others to put forward amendments .
The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that a nationwide vote will be held on April 22 , where Russians will have their say on the proposed changes to their country ’ s constitution .
“ There ’ s not much to be angry about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be enthusiastic about , ” Schulmann said .
“ The vote will happen anyways , but the organizers need to show a properly high voter turnout to make it look legitimate.
” The key changes to the constitution revolve around creating a powerful position for Putin after he leaves the presidency in 2024 .
Some proposals have looked at granting retired presidents immunity from prosecution , while others would make Putin a lifetime senator in Russia ’ s upper house .
The most likely scenario involves the Russian leader heading a reconfigured State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would allow him to continue navigating Russian foreign and military policy and ensure that his vision of the country remains intact .
Russians will be asked to vote yes or no on the full text of the new constitution .
In order to try to attract voters and avoid embarrassingly low turnout , or defeat , the authorities have added two amendments that hold broad appeal .
One would set the minimum wage above the poverty line , and another would enshrine pensions .
Both measures already exist under Russian law .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits are the main things that people care about , ” said Denis Volkov , the Levada Center ’ s deputy director .
“ The conditions are not bad enough for people to join a movement or go to the streets like what we saw in 2011 and 2012 ” during mass protests against Putin ’ s return to the presidency after he served four years as prime minister .
The April vote highlights the current impasse in the country .
While Putin still remains popular , his government has faced falling ratings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he serves out his term until 2024 .
The dismissal of the unpopular government in January and the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister , who has since promised increased social benefits , were seen as moves to boost Putin ’ s popularity .
Underscoring the contradictions at play , a January poll found that Putin ’ s approval rating stood at 68 percent but trust in the president was down to 35 percent , the lowest since Russia ’ s annexation of Crimea in 2014 .
“ The situation is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult [ for Putin ] , ” Volkov said .
“ They are trying to stop the dent to Putin ’ s public appeal.
” Andrei Kolesnikov , a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center , said Russians have few incentives to mobilize en masse against the proposed measures despite growing fatigue among the population .
“ It doesn ’ t mean that political opposition is disappearing or that civil society is gone , ” Kolesnikov said .
“ It ’ s more just that people don ’ t see how they @ @ @ @ @

MOSCOW—Russians critical of President Vladimir Putin plan to gather in Moscow this weekend in a protest that could indicate just how much opposition there is to proposed changes to the constitution that would allow Putin to continue wielding power long after his term runs out in 2024.
MOSCOW—Russians critical of President Vladimir Putin plan to gather in Moscow this weekend in a protest that could indicate just how much opposition there is to proposed changes to the constitution that would allow Putin to continue wielding power long after his term runs out in 2024.
The gathering Saturday will mark five years since the assassination of the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, an annual event that is permitted by authorities.
But Russia’s most prominent opposition leaders have called for mass turnout that would send a signal regarding the proposals Putin unveiled in January.
“The Kremlin is going to look at how many people attend the Nemtsov march,” Alexey Navalny, a leading opposition figure who has investigated high-level corruption for years, wrote on Twitter. “This will influence how brazenly they will pursue the operation to keep Putin in power. This will influence the future of political prisoners.”
The call was echoed by other opposition politicians, including Ilya Yashin, who referenced both Nemtsov and Putin’s attempted power grab in his tweet.
Nemtsov, who had been working on a report examining Russia’s role in the conflict in Ukraine, was gunned down on Feb. 27, 2015, as he strolled with his girlfriend along a bridge not far from the Kremlin. He was a liberal politician who served as a deputy prime minister during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency and became one of Putin’s most prominent opponents.
In channeling Nemtsov, Russia’s fragmented opposition is hoping to show that the spirit of resistance is alive and well. The demonstration is expected to be the first major street action by the opposition since a series of protests in Moscow last summer over local elections, which were dispersed by security forces.
“One of the functions of the march is a head count: showing that the people are still here,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a Moscow-based political analyst. “Opposition-minded people need to gather and see each other to remind each other and the country that they exist.”
Thursday marked the fifth anniversary of Nemstov’s killing, which stunned Russia and sent a chill through the country’s civil society. The annual gathering is meant to reflect on Nemtsov’s political career and legacy and to call for a renewed investigation into his assassination.
In 2017, five men from Chechnya were sentenced to prison for Nemtsov’s murder, but relatives and government critics suspect that the killing could have been ordered by the Kremlin. Last week, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe issued a report calling on Moscow to launch a new investigation, saying that the Russian authorities failed to determine who ordered the killing.
The annual rally has also provided a means for the opposition to piggyback other political causes and to plant a flag for upcoming events in the country’s political calendar, such as regional elections slated for later this year and parliamentary elections in 2021.
But coalescing around proposed changes to the constitution has so far proved elusive. A January opinion poll from the Levada Center, an independent pollster based in Moscow, found that 47 percent of Russians believed Putin was using the referendum to expand his authorities and remain in power, and a poll released Friday found that only 25 percent of respondents would support the amendments. Still, there has been no pronounced backlash since the announcement last month. Putin has since set up a working group of 75 doctors, politicians, musicians, actors, film directors, business people, sports figures, and others to put forward amendments. The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that a nationwide vote will be held on April 22, where Russians will have their say on the proposed changes to their country’s constitution.
“There’s not much to be angry about, and there is not much to be enthusiastic about,” Schulmann said. “The vote will happen anyways, but the organizers need to show a properly high voter turnout to make it look legitimate.”
The key changes to the constitution revolve around creating a powerful position for Putin after he leaves the presidency in 2024. Some proposals have looked at granting retired presidents immunity from prosecution, while others would make Putin a lifetime senator in Russia’s upper house.
The most likely scenario involves the Russian leader heading a reconfigured State Council, a body with new powers that would allow him to continue navigating Russian foreign and military policy and ensure that his vision of the country remains intact.
Russians will be asked to vote yes or no on the full text of the new constitution. In order to try to attract voters and avoid embarrassingly low turnout, or defeat, the authorities have added two amendments that hold broad appeal. One would set the minimum wage above the poverty line, and another would enshrine pensions. Both measures already exist under Russian law.
“Pensions, salaries, and social benefits are the main things that people care about,” said Denis Volkov, the Levada Center’s deputy director. “The conditions are not bad enough for people to join a movement or go to the streets like what we saw in 2011 and 2012” during mass protests against Putin’s return to the presidency after he served four years as prime minister.
The April vote highlights the current impasse in the country. While Putin still remains popular, his government has faced falling ratings and rising distrust that could grow as he serves out his term until 2024. The dismissal of the unpopular government in January and the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister, who has since promised increased social benefits, were seen as moves to boost Putin’s popularity. Underscoring the contradictions at play, a January poll found that Putin’s approval rating stood at 68 percent but trust in the president was down to 35 percent, the lowest since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“The situation is still manageable, but it is becoming more difficult [for Putin],” Volkov said. “They are trying to stop the dent to Putin’s public appeal.”
Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Russians have few incentives to mobilize en masse against the proposed measures despite growing fatigue among the population.
“It doesn’t mean that political opposition is disappearing or that civil society is gone,” Kolesnikov said. “It’s more just that people don’t see how they could change anything.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-28--Japan’s Economy May Be Another Coronavirus Casualty

Japan ’ s Economy May Be Another Coronavirus Casualty TOKYO—The coronavirus outbreak could hardly have come at a worse time for Japan .
The economy and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ’ s reputation have both taken a hit .
Even the much-vaunted Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games that kick off in late July may be at risk .
It was not supposed to be like this .
Abe had just celebrated the feat of becoming the longest-serving prime minister in Japan ’ s history .
Relations with China were improving with an upcoming state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Olympics were expected to show a new Japan , much in the way that the 1964 Summer Games had showcased the country ’ s postwar economic recovery .
The Diamond Princess ruined all that .
The virus-hit cruise ship docked at its home berth of Yokohama on Feb. 3 .
The ship had been on a two-week tour that took it to Hong Kong , Vietnam , and Taiwan , with one passenger taken off in Hong Kong and later diagnosed as having the virus .
Japanese officials ordered the ship under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this would help to stop the spread of the virus or instead create an incubation center among the roughly 3,700 passengers and crew on board .
That controversy grew after Kentaro Iwata , a professor of infectious diseases at Kobe University , recorded a YouTube video on the ship in which he criticized the conditions as being inadequate to control new infections .
Government officials shot back , producing data that they said demonstrated that most of the infections occurred before the lockdown and that the measures had helped to slow down the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down his videos , telling reporters that he had been assured that rules had been tightened and that “ the role of the YouTube post was over.
” Adding further doubt , however , was a later revelation that some Japanese passengers had been allowed to leave without any further safeguards , while U.S. and other foreign passengers had been taken home to face two weeks more of isolation .
To make matters worse , authorities admitted that 23 of the Japanese passengers had been allowed to leave without a final test .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been reported as being infected on the ship , with four deaths .
Numbers for the rest of Japan have been less severe .
The government says 210 people around the country have tested positive , considerably fewer than the 2,337 cases in South Korea , where President Moon Jae-in put the country on the highest alert level for an infectious disease outbreak .
Shigeru Omi , chief director of the Japan Community Health Care Organization and an expert in this field , acknowledged that “ no system is perfect and Japan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Japanese health officials and others are working around the clock and that Japan was now focusing on preventing further infection centers and in reducing mortality .
While the success of Japan ’ s approach has yet to be determined , there is no doubt that one of the casualties will be the economy .
Even before the outbreak , Japan was sliding toward a possible recession , with the gross domestic product off a surprisingly steep 6.3 percent at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter , hit by a downturn in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales tax .
The virus outbreak will almost certainly worsen the situation .
Goldman Sachs estimates that the first quarter will see a fall of 0.3 percent , with an overall contraction of 0.4 percent for the year .
New measures announced Tuesday by the government will likely make this worse .
In order to stop the creation of new “ clusters ” of infection , it is recommending that people avoid large groups or close contact with others over a long period .
Forget candlelight dinners or boozy work outings as companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallen in line .
Advertising giant Dentsu has told 5,000 workers at its headquarters to stay at home ( but keep working ) after one employee tested positive for the virus .
Cosmetics group Shiseido has meanwhile told 8,000 employees to telework .
Another major Japanese group has told employees to avoid groups of six or more , and others are cutting all travel .
The economic effects are mounting .
The Tokyo stock market fell 9.6 percent in the week .
A major international hotel chain says it is operating at 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level , with the worst yet to come , while some restaurants in central Tokyo report a 50 percent decline in bookings .
Major sporting events are also on hold with the Japan soccer league abandoning all its planned matches through March 15 .
The Tokyo marathon , which typically attracts some 30,000 runners from around the world , has been scaled back to only the small professional group .
Even Tokyo Disneyland , one of the most popular resorts in the world , has shut its doors for at least two weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the big successes for the Abe government , is likely to be the biggest loser in all this .
Chinese tourists , who accounted for 40 percent of spending by foreign visitors last year , have stopped coming , with tour groups now banned .
South Koreans , already mad at Japan over trade restrictions last year , are also staying away in droves .
Together the two neighbors accounted for almost half of the 32 million visitors last year .
There are also some murmurings that perhaps Tokyo is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Paralympic Games—if they ’ re held anywhere in what may turn out to be a pandemic year .
International Olympic Committee ( IOC ) member Dick Pound of Canada told the Associated Press that there is likely a two- to three-month window to assess the situation .
That ’ s not the official view , at least for now , with a spokesman in Tokyo saying that “ with regard to this member ’ s comment , the IOC has responded that this is not their official position , and that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ games as scheduled.
” All this is slashing away at Abe ’ s popularity .
His approval rating , already hit by a number of scandals , took its biggest decline in two years , according to a Feb. 15-16 poll by Japanese news agency Kyodo News .
It found the support level for Abe ’ s cabinet was now 41 percent , down 8.3 points from the previous poll in January .
Among those surveyed , 82.5 percent said they were concerned about the negative economic impact of the outbreak .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where despite an image of teamwork and an ability to pull out of tough times , voters typically blame their leaders for problems .
Abe saw this in the summer of 2018 , when torrential rains caused widespread flooding and landslides , leaving over 200 dead .
A perceived lackluster response was met with a 46 percent disapproval rating , helping to push the government ’ s overall rating down 7 points to 45 percent .
Even more dramatically , the now opposition Democratic Party saw its fortunes hit by a perceived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and nuclear emergency in March 2011 .
Despite bringing on a new prime minister , the party suffered a massive defeat in the December 2012 that brought Abe to power .
It has never recovered since then and its successor party now polls at less than 10 percent .
Abe ’ s carefully nurtured overtures to Xi may also face a setback with the possible cancellation of Xi ’ s planned trip in April , the first by a Chinese leader since 2008 .
Officially , both countries insist the trip is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this week when he abruptly announced that the government was asking all schools in Japan to close until the end of the term in late March .
Japanese media quoted education officials as being unaware of the plan , with one quoted as saying , “ I can ’ t believe it .
There was no consideration for people at the schools.
” Children have been among the least-hit groups by the virus , and critics say the measure will only complicate the lives of medical workers and others who will now have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team has managed to navigate such crises before , including a favoritism scandal over the sale of land to a nationalist elementary school supported by Abe and his wife .
This time could be different , however .
Abe ’ s term as head of the ruling party is due to expire in September 2021 , making the prime minister something of a lame duck .
There had been talk that the rules could again be changed to keep Abe in power , but that has faded as the problems have mounted .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ however .
One of Japan ’ s key concerns is how to deal with a second Trump administration .
Abe is seen as being deft at flattering Trump while trying to put off the president ’ s demands on the trade and defense fronts for as long as possible .
The recent Kyodo poll found that 71 percent expected an unfavorable impact on Japan if Trump is reelected .
If that happens , some politicians have suggested that Abe might still be the best man for the job .
His performance through the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a defining moment of his years in power—whether he gets on top of the crisis or gets overwhelmed by it .

TOKYO—The coronavirus outbreak could hardly have come at a worse time for Japan. The economy and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reputation have both taken a hit. Even the much-vaunted Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games that kick off in late July may be at risk.
TOKYO—The coronavirus outbreak could hardly have come at a worse time for Japan. The economy and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reputation have both taken a hit. Even the much-vaunted Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games that kick off in late July may be at risk.
It was not supposed to be like this. Abe had just celebrated the feat of becoming the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history. Relations with China were improving with an upcoming state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, his first since coming to power. The Olympics were expected to show a new Japan, much in the way that the 1964 Summer Games had showcased the country’s postwar economic recovery.
The Diamond Princess ruined all that. The virus-hit cruise ship docked at its home berth of Yokohama on Feb. 3. The ship had been on a two-week tour that took it to Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Taiwan, with one passenger taken off in Hong Kong and later diagnosed as having the virus.
Japanese officials ordered the ship under quarantine—a move that raised doubts over whether this would help to stop the spread of the virus or instead create an incubation center among the roughly 3,700 passengers and crew on board.
That controversy grew after Kentaro Iwata, a professor of infectious diseases at Kobe University, recorded a YouTube video on the ship in which he criticized the conditions as being inadequate to control new infections. Government officials shot back, producing data that they said demonstrated that most of the infections occurred before the lockdown and that the measures had helped to slow down the rate of infection. Iwata soon took down his videos, telling reporters that he had been assured that rules had been tightened and that “the role of the YouTube post was over.”
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Adding further doubt, however, was a later revelation that some Japanese passengers had been allowed to leave without any further safeguards, while U.S. and other foreign passengers had been taken home to face two weeks more of isolation. To make matters worse, authorities admitted that 23 of the Japanese passengers had been allowed to leave without a final test. In all, more than 700 people have been reported as being infected on the ship, with four deaths.
Numbers for the rest of Japan have been less severe. The government says 210 people around the country have tested positive, considerably fewer than the 2,337 cases in South Korea, where President Moon Jae-in put the country on the highest alert level for an infectious disease outbreak.
Shigeru Omi, chief director of the Japan Community Health Care Organization and an expert in this field, acknowledged that “no system is perfect and Japan is no exception.” But he said that Japanese health officials and others are working around the clock and that Japan was now focusing on preventing further infection centers and in reducing mortality.
While the success of Japan’s approach has yet to be determined, there is no doubt that one of the casualties will be the economy.
Even before the outbreak, Japan was sliding toward a possible recession, with the gross domestic product off a surprisingly steep 6.3 percent at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter, hit by a downturn in consumption following an increase in the national sales tax. The virus outbreak will almost certainly worsen the situation. Goldman Sachs estimates that the first quarter will see a fall of 0.3 percent, with an overall contraction of 0.4 percent for the year.
New measures announced Tuesday by the government will likely make this worse. In order to stop the creation of new “clusters” of infection, it is recommending that people avoid large groups or close contact with others over a long period. Forget candlelight dinners or boozy work outings as companies cancel planned parties.
Corporate Japan has fallen in line. Advertising giant Dentsu has told 5,000 workers at its headquarters to stay at home (but keep working) after one employee tested positive for the virus. Cosmetics group Shiseido has meanwhile told 8,000 employees to telework. Another major Japanese group has told employees to avoid groups of six or more, and others are cutting all travel.
The economic effects are mounting. The Tokyo stock market fell 9.6 percent in the week. A major international hotel chain says it is operating at 40 percent of capacity, half the usual level, with the worst yet to come, while some restaurants in central Tokyo report a 50 percent decline in bookings. Major sporting events are also on hold with the Japan soccer league abandoning all its planned matches through March 15. The Tokyo marathon, which typically attracts some 30,000 runners from around the world, has been scaled back to only the small professional group. Even Tokyo Disneyland, one of the most popular resorts in the world, has shut its doors for at least two weeks.
Inbound tourism, which had been one of the big successes for the Abe government, is likely to be the biggest loser in all this. Chinese tourists, who accounted for 40 percent of spending by foreign visitors last year, have stopped coming, with tour groups now banned. South Koreans, already mad at Japan over trade restrictions last year, are also staying away in droves. Together the two neighbors accounted for almost half of the 32 million visitors last year.
There are also some murmurings that perhaps Tokyo is not the place to hold the Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games—if they’re held anywhere in what may turn out to be a pandemic year. International Olympic Committee (IOC) member Dick Pound of Canada told the Associated Press that there is likely a two- to three-month window to assess the situation. That’s not the official view, at least for now, with a spokesman in Tokyo saying that “with regard to this member’s comment, the IOC has responded that this is not their official position, and that the IOC is proceeding with preparations toward the games as scheduled.”
All this is slashing away at Abe’s popularity. His approval rating, already hit by a number of scandals, took its biggest decline in two years, according to a Feb. 15-16 poll by Japanese news agency Kyodo News. It found the support level for Abe’s cabinet was now 41 percent, down 8.3 points from the previous poll in January. Among those surveyed, 82.5 percent said they were concerned about the negative economic impact of the outbreak.
This follows something of a pattern in Japan, where despite an image of teamwork and an ability to pull out of tough times, voters typically blame their leaders for problems. Abe saw this in the summer of 2018, when torrential rains caused widespread flooding and landslides, leaving over 200 dead. A perceived lackluster response was met with a 46 percent disapproval rating, helping to push the government’s overall rating down 7 points to 45 percent. Even more dramatically, the now opposition Democratic Party saw its fortunes hit by a perceived poor response to the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear emergency in March 2011. Despite bringing on a new prime minister, the party suffered a massive defeat in the December 2012 that brought Abe to power. It has never recovered since then and its successor party now polls at less than 10 percent.
Abe’s carefully nurtured overtures to Xi may also face a setback with the possible cancellation of Xi’s planned trip in April, the first by a Chinese leader since 2008. Officially, both countries insist the trip is still on.
Abe came under further criticism this week when he abruptly announced that the government was asking all schools in Japan to close until the end of the term in late March. Japanese media quoted education officials as being unaware of the plan, with one quoted as saying, “I can’t believe it. There was no consideration for people at the schools.” Children have been among the least-hit groups by the virus, and critics say the measure will only complicate the lives of medical workers and others who will now have to care for them.
The Abe team has managed to navigate such crises before, including a favoritism scandal over the sale of land to a nationalist elementary school supported by Abe and his wife. This time could be different, however. Abe’s term as head of the ruling party is due to expire in September 2021, making the prime minister something of a lame duck. There had been talk that the rules could again be changed to keep Abe in power, but that has faded as the problems have mounted.
He could have one last rescue, however. One of Japan’s key concerns is how to deal with a second Trump administration. Abe is seen as being deft at flattering Trump while trying to put off the president’s demands on the trade and defense fronts for as long as possible. The recent Kyodo poll found that 71 percent expected an unfavorable impact on Japan if Trump is reelected. If that happens, some politicians have suggested that Abe might still be the best man for the job. His performance through the coronavirus crisis could turn out to be a defining moment of his years in power—whether he gets on top of the crisis or gets overwhelmed by it.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-28--So Long, and Say Thanks for All the Fish

So Long , and Say Thanks for All the Fish The United Kingdom and the European Union have now formally laid down their opening positions for the high-stakes talks this year on their future economic relationship after Brexit .
And while Britain ’ s stated refusal to swallow any of Europe ’ s demands for regulatory alignment and a level playing field grabs most of the headlines , a potentially bigger and even more imminent flash point looms elsewhere : Fish .
Since joining in the early 1970s what would eventually become the EU , Britain , like other European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approach to fisheries in British and European waters .
And that has long been a sore point for British fishermen , who rightly note that European fishing vessels gained access to a lot more U.K. waters than the other way around and who chafe at what they see as Brussels ’ s ham-handed management of fisheries , including annual quotas and rules that member states must abide by .
Since British membership in Europe happened to coincide with the near-collapse of the British fishing industry , Europe has become a scapegoat for that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fisheries , like borders , regulation , and justice , became a central plank in the 2016 campaign for Brexit—and the new government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already laid out its plan for sovereign control of fisheries in legislation .
Britain ’ s negotiating position , published Thursday , calls for a comprehensive free trade agreement between the U.K. and the European Union—but doesn ’ t even include fisheries as part of that deal .
Instead , as with security , law enforcement , and aviation , Britain sees a future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The U.K. aims to cut off European fishing vessels ’ access to British waters and negotiate any access and allowable catches on a yearly basis .
Europe , in stark contrast , sees fisheries as almost the keystone of any future economic agreement between the two .
In its negotiating position , also published this week , Europe made clear that any talks on trade must start with a continuation of the current EU fishing arrangement—where European vessels have open access to British waters and remain under the management of the Common Fisheries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quotas .
“ Fisheries are absolutely a big flash point , ” said Joe Owen , the Brexit program director at the Institute for Government , a think tank in London .
“ The two sides have been squaring up on this for a long time.
” More urgently , while the two sides ostensibly have until the end of the year to wrap up talks on their future trade relationship , Europe made clear that the fisheries question must be sorted by July 1 so that European fleets can plan for next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The clock is really ticking—it has to be done by summer , ” said Michael Leigh , a senior fellow at Bruegel , a think tank in Brussels .
“ The idea that December is the deadline is false as far as fisheries are concerned.
” It ’ s a bit odd that fish and fisheries could occupy such a central place in the all-important discussions about the future economic relationship between the U.K. and Europe .
It ’ s a vanishingly small industry in economic terms in both blocs , especially in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 0.1 percent of GDP .
In contrast , the EU accounts for roughly half of British imports and exports in the economy as a whole—making the securing of a broad free trade agreement a lot more economically important than wresting control of coastal waters .
But fisheries have always been an emotive and politically sensitive issue , in both Britain and the Continent .
Fishing states in the EU , such as Ireland , Spain , and Portugal , will likely have to sign off on whatever future economic agreement the two sides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access for European fishermen as part of any accord if it expects to ratify it .
In Britain , coastal fishing communities voted overwhelmingly for Brexit—even in Scotland , which on the whole roundly rejected the referendum to leave Europe .
Many British fishermen who argue that joining Europe led to the decimation of their industry and see a golden opportunity to right that mistake now fear the government could throw fishing interests under the bus to secure a broader deal .
“ It ’ s a hugely political and symbolic issue , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as economically important as some other industries—communities and constituencies are based around fishing , ” Owen said .
“ And from the EU side , the same thing is true .
The U.K. is a vital trading partner—would they imperil that because of fishing communities in coastal states ?
” Britain ’ s fight with Europe over fish obviously didn ’ t start with the EU or the Common Fisheries Policy .
For centuries , access to the rich fishing waters off the British coast has been a bone of contention between England @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Danes , Dutch , and French .
While England granted pretty free access to the Dutch and others to fish in British waters under Queen Elizabeth I , the growing power and wealth of the Dutch herring fleets angered many Brits—especially Scots , then and now the most reliant on the fishing industry .
As the legal historian Douglas Johnston has noted , when Scotland ’ s James VI took the throne of England as James I , he made that animosity to foreign fishing fleets state policy .
In 1609 , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all foreign vessels—unless they got a license from the British crown , pretty much the same recipe for fishing access as envisioned in Boris Johnson ’ s road map .
The British obsession with claiming ownership and sovereignty of its waters culminated in the legal theories of John Selden , who coined the “ closed sea ” school of maritime law to rebut Dutch rivals who ’ d pioneered a legal vision of an “ open sea.
” That frontal confrontation between British and Continental visions of how to share European waters continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the three Anglo-Dutch wars of the 17th century .
Access to fishing grounds has also colored the Anglo-French rivalry for centuries , with fishing rights an important part of peace treaties in 1763 and 1815 .
Both countries spent the rest of the 19th century trying to sort out fishing rights in the English Channel—and still are , at times , with several “ scallop wars ” breaking out in recent years .
But Britain ’ s best-known fight over fish is probably the three “ cod wars ” with Iceland between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually 10 in all , going back centuries . )
The showdown over the British fishing fleets ’ access to rich cod waters off Iceland played out in repeated violent clashes over a period of decades and nearly pulled Iceland out of NATO and into the Soviet orbit .
In the end , Britain lost most of its access to what had been a very lucrative fishing ground—just as the overall industry was entering a period of sharp decline and right as Britain joined Europe .
While British fishermen blame Europe and its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the problem isn ’ t really in Brussels—but in the water .
Beginning in the late 19th century , steam trawlers began replacing small sailing vessels , making longer trips for further distances with ever more sophisticated gear to land ever larger hauls of bottom-dwelling fish like cod and haddock .
The end result was massive overfishing—and no matter how hard the British fleet worked , it could never catch as much fish as it did more than a century before .
“ For every unit of fishing power expended today , bottom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the catches in the late nineteenth century , ” one scientific study concluded .
“ The Common Fisheries Policy was not responsible for this collapse , although under its auspices most stocks have continued to decline.
” But since the collapse coincided with European membership and common fisheries management , fishing communities tended to blame quotas and European ships .
That ’ s one reason coastal communities were vocal proponents of the Leave campaign and are still pressuring the Johnson government to seize the chance to reclaim British control over fisheries .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fishermen view Brexit as the occasion to try and expel European fishing vessels from U.K. waters , ” Leigh said .
It ’ s not even clear that British plans to do so would prevail .
Under international law , nations can lay claim to historic fishing rights—which would likely give European fleets at least some access to waters that they have plied for decades or even centuries .
And for the British fishing industry as a whole , there is a bigger question looming in the talks with Europe .
Britain by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its fishing fleet catches , exporting most of the fish to Europe .
What Brits like to eat , in contrast , is mostly landed by European fleets .
While the British negotiating plan blithely assumes that it can keep free trade in fish while barring European fleets , that ’ s unlikely to work , Owen noted .
Continued tariff-free access to Europe for that exported British fish will depend on first reaching an agreement over fishing access in the first place .
Most observers expect that fish and fisheries will ultimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s talks .
Europe hopes that if Britain is forced to ask for an extension—even though the Johnson government has been absolutely adamant that talks will be done by December or not at all—it can squeeze out fishing concessions from London as the price of more time .
Britain wants to use fishing access , which is simply a must-have for many coastal states in the EU , as a lever to secure continued privileges for hugely important economic sectors , like trade in goods or financial services .
But what if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becomes the game itself ?
“ The risk is , rather than working to get to the middle ground , because it is such a politically totemic issue for certain constituencies on both sides , you end up with very hard-line positions and end up with a bust-up over fish , ” Owen said .
“ Something that has relatively small economic value could end up preventing a much bigger deal .
”

The United Kingdom and the European Union have now formally laid down their opening positions for the high-stakes talks this year on their future economic relationship after Brexit. And while Britain’s stated refusal to swallow any of Europe’s demands for regulatory alignment and a level playing field grabs most of the headlines, a potentially bigger and even more imminent flash point looms elsewhere: Fish.
The United Kingdom and the European Union have now formally laid down their opening positions for the high-stakes talks this year on their future economic relationship after Brexit. And while Britain’s stated refusal to swallow any of Europe’s demands for regulatory alignment and a level playing field grabs most of the headlines, a potentially bigger and even more imminent flash point looms elsewhere: Fish.
Since joining in the early 1970s what would eventually become the EU, Britain, like other European countries, has essentially had a shared approach to fisheries in British and European waters. And that has long been a sore point for British fishermen, who rightly note that European fishing vessels gained access to a lot more U.K. waters than the other way around and who chafe at what they see as Brussels’s ham-handed management of fisheries, including annual quotas and rules that member states must abide by.
Since British membership in Europe happened to coincide with the near-collapse of the British fishing industry, Europe has become a scapegoat for that decline. Taking back control of British fisheries, like borders, regulation, and justice, became a central plank in the 2016 campaign for Brexit—and the new government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already laid out its plan for sovereign control of fisheries in legislation.
Britain’s negotiating position, published Thursday, calls for a comprehensive free trade agreement between the U.K. and the European Union—but doesn’t even include fisheries as part of that deal. Instead, as with security, law enforcement, and aviation, Britain sees a future fisheries agreement as something completely separate. The U.K. aims to cut off European fishing vessels’ access to British waters and negotiate any access and allowable catches on a yearly basis.
Europe, in stark contrast, sees fisheries as almost the keystone of any future economic agreement between the two. In its negotiating position, also published this week, Europe made clear that any talks on trade must start with a continuation of the current EU fishing arrangement—where European vessels have open access to British waters and remain under the management of the Common Fisheries Policy Britain so despises, including annual quotas.
“Fisheries are absolutely a big flash point,” said Joe Owen, the Brexit program director at the Institute for Government, a think tank in London. “The two sides have been squaring up on this for a long time.”
More urgently, while the two sides ostensibly have until the end of the year to wrap up talks on their future trade relationship, Europe made clear that the fisheries question must be sorted by July 1 so that European fleets can plan for next year’s fishing quotas.
“The clock is really ticking—it has to be done by summer,” said Michael Leigh, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels. “The idea that December is the deadline is false as far as fisheries are concerned.”
It’s a bit odd that fish and fisheries could occupy such a central place in the all-important discussions about the future economic relationship between the U.K. and Europe. It’s a vanishingly small industry in economic terms in both blocs, especially in the U.K., where it represents about 0.1 percent of GDP. In contrast, the EU accounts for roughly half of British imports and exports in the economy as a whole—making the securing of a broad free trade agreement a lot more economically important than wresting control of coastal waters.
But fisheries have always been an emotive and politically sensitive issue, in both Britain and the Continent. Fishing states in the EU, such as Ireland, Spain, and Portugal, will likely have to sign off on whatever future economic agreement the two sides make—which means Brussels has to secure continued access for European fishermen as part of any accord if it expects to ratify it.
In Britain, coastal fishing communities voted overwhelmingly for Brexit—even in Scotland, which on the whole roundly rejected the referendum to leave Europe. Many British fishermen who argue that joining Europe led to the decimation of their industry and see a golden opportunity to right that mistake now fear the government could throw fishing interests under the bus to secure a broader deal.
“It’s a hugely political and symbolic issue, even if it’s nowhere near as economically important as some other industries—communities and constituencies are based around fishing,” Owen said. “And from the EU side, the same thing is true. The U.K. is a vital trading partner—would they imperil that because of fishing communities in coastal states?”
Britain’s fight with Europe over fish obviously didn’t start with the EU or the Common Fisheries Policy. For centuries, access to the rich fishing waters off the British coast has been a bone of contention between England, Scotland, and Europeans like the Danes, Dutch, and French.
While England granted pretty free access to the Dutch and others to fish in British waters under Queen Elizabeth I, the growing power and wealth of the Dutch herring fleets angered many Brits—especially Scots, then and now the most reliant on the fishing industry. As the legal historian Douglas Johnston has noted, when Scotland’s James VI took the throne of England as James I, he made that animosity to foreign fishing fleets state policy. In 1609, he laid claim to British fisheries and banned all foreign vessels—unless they got a license from the British crown, pretty much the same recipe for fishing access as envisioned in Boris Johnson’s road map.
The British obsession with claiming ownership and sovereignty of its waters culminated in the legal theories of John Selden, who coined the “closed sea” school of maritime law to rebut Dutch rivals who’d pioneered a legal vision of an “open sea.” That frontal confrontation between British and Continental visions of how to share European waters continued, with fishing a big part of the three Anglo-Dutch wars of the 17th century.
Access to fishing grounds has also colored the Anglo-French rivalry for centuries, with fishing rights an important part of peace treaties in 1763 and 1815. Both countries spent the rest of the 19th century trying to sort out fishing rights in the English Channel—and still are, at times, with several “scallop wars” breaking out in recent years.
But Britain’s best-known fight over fish is probably the three “cod wars” with Iceland between the 1950s and 1970s. (There were actually 10 in all, going back centuries.) The showdown over the British fishing fleets’ access to rich cod waters off Iceland played out in repeated violent clashes over a period of decades and nearly pulled Iceland out of NATO and into the Soviet orbit. In the end, Britain lost most of its access to what had been a very lucrative fishing ground—just as the overall industry was entering a period of sharp decline and right as Britain joined Europe.
While British fishermen blame Europe and its fisheries policy for their economic decline, the problem isn’t really in Brussels—but in the water. Beginning in the late 19th century, steam trawlers began replacing small sailing vessels, making longer trips for further distances with ever more sophisticated gear to land ever larger hauls of bottom-dwelling fish like cod and haddock. The end result was massive overfishing—and no matter how hard the British fleet worked, it could never catch as much fish as it did more than a century before.
“For every unit of fishing power expended today, bottom trawlers land little more than one-seventeenth of the catches in the late nineteenth century,” one scientific study concluded. “The Common Fisheries Policy was not responsible for this collapse, although under its auspices most stocks have continued to decline.”
But since the collapse coincided with European membership and common fisheries management, fishing communities tended to blame quotas and European ships. That’s one reason coastal communities were vocal proponents of the Leave campaign and are still pressuring the Johnson government to seize the chance to reclaim British control over fisheries.
“There’s no doubt that British fishermen view Brexit as the occasion to try and expel European fishing vessels from U.K. waters,” Leigh said.
It’s not even clear that British plans to do so would prevail. Under international law, nations can lay claim to historic fishing rights—which would likely give European fleets at least some access to waters that they have plied for decades or even centuries.
And for the British fishing industry as a whole, there is a bigger question looming in the talks with Europe. Britain by and large doesn’t eat what its fishing fleet catches, exporting most of the fish to Europe. What Brits like to eat, in contrast, is mostly landed by European fleets.
While the British negotiating plan blithely assumes that it can keep free trade in fish while barring European fleets, that’s unlikely to work, Owen noted. Continued tariff-free access to Europe for that exported British fish will depend on first reaching an agreement over fishing access in the first place.
Most observers expect that fish and fisheries will ultimately become a bargaining chip in this year’s talks.
Europe hopes that if Britain is forced to ask for an extension—even though the Johnson government has been absolutely adamant that talks will be done by December or not at all—it can squeeze out fishing concessions from London as the price of more time. Britain wants to use fishing access, which is simply a must-have for many coastal states in the EU, as a lever to secure continued privileges for hugely important economic sectors, like trade in goods or financial services.
But what if the chip never gets bargained away but becomes the game itself?
“The risk is, rather than working to get to the middle ground, because it is such a politically totemic issue for certain constituencies on both sides, you end up with very hard-line positions and end up with a bust-up over fish,” Owen said. “Something that has relatively small economic value could end up preventing a much bigger deal.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-28--Taiwan Wants to Help Fight the Coronavirus. WHO Won’t Let It.

Taiwan Wants to Help Fight the Coronavirus .
WHO Won ’ t Let It .
The novel coronavirus outbreak has resulted in more than 80,000 confirmed cases and killed nearly 3,000 people worldwide .
Its spread has already surpassed the total number of casualties during the SARS crisis in 2002-2003 .
The World Health Organization ( WHO ) belatedly declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on Jan. 30 .
Some 60,000 flights carry 10 million passengers between Taiwan and China every year .
Taiwan has an acute interest in protecting its own and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health threat .
After the painful but valuable experience of dealing with SARS in 2003 , Taiwan ’ s government is making maximum and keenly effective efforts to prevent further outbreaks on the island .
However , Taiwan was excluded from the WHO emergency meetings on the new coronavirus crisis .
In fact , Taiwan has been denied permission to attend the annual World Health Assembly and WHO technical and experts ’ meetings since 2016 due to Beijing ’ s aggressive attempts at limiting Taiwan ’ s international participation .
Moreover , data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deliberately list coronavirus cases reported by the Taiwanese authorities as under China , regardless of the fact that Taiwan has never been under the jurisdiction of the People ’ s Republic of China and that travelers around the world deserve to obtain accurate and timely information about the situation .
Taiwan , despite confirming only 34 cases as of Feb. 28 , is thus listed as “ very high risk ” by WHO—because the organization will not do the obvious thing and give its information separately from China ’ s .
The way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far has been unprofessional , unfair , and confusing .
The governments of Italy , Vietnam , and the Philippines , for example , placed bans either on flights from Taiwan or on Taiwanese nationals based on WHO ’ s inaccurate listing .
Hanoi and Manila , however , have swiftly reversed their decisions .
The 23 million people of Taiwan should not suffer because of WHO ’ s deliberate ignorance of the undeniable fact that Taiwan ’ s and China ’ s health care systems are administered separately by independent health authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unable to receive the most updated information from the International Civil Aviation Organization ( ICAO ) regarding its responses to the unfolding emergency situation since Taiwan is without membership in ICAO either .
Moreover , ICAO has blocked many Twitter accounts questioning this decision .
Isolating Taiwan , which is one of the busiest international travel hubs , from the world ’ s foremost organizations on health and civil aviation does not make sense .
Moreover , it puts the lives of Taiwan ’ s 23 million people at greater risk and creates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ network .
No one should be left behind amid the current health crisis .
Therefore , we are very grateful for our diplomatic allies in Africa , Latin America , and the Pacific , as well as like-minded countries such as the United States , Australia , Belgium , Canada , Japan , New Zealand , and the United Kingdom , together with the European Union , for publicly voicing in recent weeks their staunch support for Taiwan ’ s participation in WHO to jointly combat the deadly disease .
We are pleased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by inviting medical experts from Taiwan to take part online in the international forum on the novel coronavirus on Feb. 11-12 in Geneva .
Albeit a small progress , we will continue working tirelessly with the international community to make substantive contributions .
Taiwan , with its health care system ranked No .
1 for two years in a row in the Health Care Index , has advanced medical skills and cutting-edge health technology that can help in controlling global epidemics .
In recent years , for instance , Taiwan has hosted several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to prevent dengue fever , Zika virus , chikungunya virus , enterovirus , and tuberculosis for those countries in need .
With its state-of-the-art disease prevention capabilities in line with the International Health Regulations , Taiwan has much to offer .
Excluding Taiwan from WHO not only hurts the fundamental human rights of its 23 million residents but also prevents people around the world from obtaining quality assistance from Taiwan .
There is growing speculation and concern that WHO and a few other international organizations are bending to the political influence of China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Security , a Washington-based think tank , published a report in May 2019 indicating that “ [ i ] nternational organizations thus have become an arena for ideological contestation , in which Beijing ’ s goal is to make authoritarian rule seem as legitimate as democratic government.
” WHO and other functional international organizations were created to promote fundamental human rights for all .
Therefore , the health segregation of Taiwan is a cause for alarm and needs to be stopped .
Taiwan deserves more international access in response to the current and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time , rest assured that Taiwan can and will always punch above its weight to help .

The novel coronavirus outbreak has resulted in more than 80,000 confirmed cases and killed nearly 3,000 people worldwide. Its spread has already surpassed the total number of casualties during the SARS crisis in 2002-2003. The World Health Organization (WHO) belatedly declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on Jan. 30.
The novel coronavirus outbreak has resulted in more than 80,000 confirmed cases and killed nearly 3,000 people worldwide. Its spread has already surpassed the total number of casualties during the SARS crisis in 2002-2003. The World Health Organization (WHO) belatedly declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on Jan. 30.
Some 60,000 flights carry 10 million passengers between Taiwan and China every year. Taiwan has an acute interest in protecting its own and the world’s welfare from this latest health threat. After the painful but valuable experience of dealing with SARS in 2003, Taiwan’s government is making maximum and keenly effective efforts to prevent further outbreaks on the island.
However, Taiwan was excluded from the WHO emergency meetings on the new coronavirus crisis. In fact, Taiwan has been denied permission to attend the annual World Health Assembly and WHO technical and experts’ meetings since 2016 due to Beijing’s aggressive attempts at limiting Taiwan’s international participation.
Moreover, data and other related references released by WHO deliberately list coronavirus cases reported by the Taiwanese authorities as under China, regardless of the fact that Taiwan has never been under the jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China and that travelers around the world deserve to obtain accurate and timely information about the situation. Taiwan, despite confirming only 34 cases as of Feb. 28, is thus listed as “very high risk” by WHO—because the organization will not do the obvious thing and give its information separately from China’s.
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The way in which WHO has treated Taiwan so far has been unprofessional, unfair, and confusing. The governments of Italy, Vietnam, and the Philippines, for example, placed bans either on flights from Taiwan or on Taiwanese nationals based on WHO’s inaccurate listing. Hanoi and Manila, however, have swiftly reversed their decisions. The 23 million people of Taiwan should not suffer because of WHO’s deliberate ignorance of the undeniable fact that Taiwan’s and China’s health care systems are administered separately by independent health authorities.
Besides WHO, Taiwan is also unable to receive the most updated information from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regarding its responses to the unfolding emergency situation since Taiwan is without membership in ICAO either. Moreover, ICAO has blocked many Twitter accounts questioning this decision. Isolating Taiwan, which is one of the busiest international travel hubs, from the world’s foremost organizations on health and civil aviation does not make sense. Moreover, it puts the lives of Taiwan’s 23 million people at greater risk and creates a serious gap in the global health network.
No one should be left behind amid the current health crisis. Therefore, we are very grateful for our diplomatic allies in Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific, as well as like-minded countries such as the United States, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, together with the European Union, for publicly voicing in recent weeks their staunch support for Taiwan’s participation in WHO to jointly combat the deadly disease.
We are pleased that WHO took a positive first step by inviting medical experts from Taiwan to take part online in the international forum on the novel coronavirus on Feb. 11-12 in Geneva. Albeit a small progress, we will continue working tirelessly with the international community to make substantive contributions.
Taiwan, with its health care system ranked No. 1 for two years in a row in the Health Care Index, has advanced medical skills and cutting-edge health technology that can help in controlling global epidemics. In recent years, for instance, Taiwan has hosted several workshops with the United States on measures to prevent dengue fever, Zika virus, chikungunya virus, enterovirus, and tuberculosis for those countries in need. With its state-of-the-art disease prevention capabilities in line with the International Health Regulations, Taiwan has much to offer. Excluding Taiwan from WHO not only hurts the fundamental human rights of its 23 million residents but also prevents people around the world from obtaining quality assistance from Taiwan.
There is growing speculation and concern that WHO and a few other international organizations are bending to the political influence of China. The Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, published a report in May 2019 indicating that “[i]nternational organizations thus have become an arena for ideological contestation, in which Beijing’s goal is to make authoritarian rule seem as legitimate as democratic government.”
WHO and other functional international organizations were created to promote fundamental human rights for all. Therefore, the health segregation of Taiwan is a cause for alarm and needs to be stopped. Taiwan deserves more international access in response to the current and future health crisis. At the same time, rest assured that Taiwan can and will always punch above its weight to help.