foreignpolicy--2020-06-18--The Sorry State of Germany’s Armed Forces

The Sorry State of Germany ’ s Armed Forces U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s announcement—and subsequent confirmation—that he would reduce the 35,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany by 28 percent provoked a barrage of criticism .
And although U.S. politics remain as partisan as ever , the critics included both Democrats and Republicans .
Those who took issue with Trump ’ s announcement charged that it had blindsided the German government , with lawmakers in the Bundestag calling the president ’ s announcement “ regrettable , ” even “ completely unacceptable.
” The decision came without any evident coordination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it did not appear to be guided by a larger strategy .
These criticisms point to a familiar problem .
In the Trump administration , impulse too often passes for policy .
Even so , focusing solely on Trump ’ s abrupt decision lets Germany off the hook too easily .
It obscures the larger context of this controversy , namely how NATO works today and Europe ’ s role within it .
To begin with , the German armed forces are in a sorry state , and that ’ s not because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s efficacy as a collective defense pact than any other European member state , lacks the means to fix this problem .
It does not .
Germany ’ s gross domestic product , valued at $ 4 trillion , ranks fourth in the world and first in Europe .
The country is also Europe ’ s technological powerhouse .
Indeed , in 2018 , the World Economic Forum hailed it as the world ’ s leader in technological innovation .
And yet the German military remains riddled with problems .
A damning 2019 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) issued by the Bundestag ’ s then commissioner for the armed forces , Hans-Peter Bartels , summed up the problem .
The number of recruits to the Bundeswehr , Germany ’ s military , has been falling and dropped to an unprecedented 20,000 in 2018 , a trend that hasn ’ t been reversed .
Moreover , thousands of officer and noncommissioned officer slots remain unfilled .
Following NATO ’ s 2014 Wales summit , the German government had proposed increasing the number of soldiers to 198,500 by 2025 , but given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a pipe dream .
The Bartels report also highlighted other serious problems .
Critical equipment such as body armor , night vision gear , radios for secure communication , and transport helicopters remains chronically scarce , as do spare parts .
In consequence , the air force , army , and navy all have training and readiness problems .
They ’ re faced with “ fighter jets and helicopters that don ’ t fly .
Ships and submarines that can ’ t sail , ” quipped a 2019 piece in Politico .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline in the number of tanks and combat aircraft owing to cutbacks in procurement .
Perhaps most embarrassingly , the development of the F-125 Baden Württemberg-class frigate , the much-touted replacement for the F-122 Bremen class , has sputtered .
The effort started in 2007 , but a host of software and hardware glitches delayed sea trials until 2017 , after which the ship was deemed unfit for use .
Although the lead vessel did eventually enter service in 2019 , the frigate is widely understood to be unable to fulfill the mission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conducting protracted operations in distant locales while parrying threats from an adversary ’ s aircraft , destroyers , and submarines .
In many ways , the German military ’ s failures come down to insufficient defense spending .
At the 2014 meeting in Wales , Germany and Washington ’ s other NATO allies agreed to devote at least 2 percent of their individual GDPs to defense spending by 2024 .
By 2019 , however , only seven of the alliance ’ s 29 members ( now 30 , with the entry of North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ met or exceeded the two-percent target .
Greece , at 2.24 percent , was furthest along .
Germany came in at 1.36 percent .
German Chancellor Angela ’ s Merkel ’ s admission in 2018 that Germany would not reach the 2 percent mark enraged Trump , and his feelings were duly relayed to Berlin by his bull-in-a-China-shop ambassador , Richard Grenell .
Trump has tended to frame his displeasure as a failure of burden-sharing in NATO .
But perhaps even more seriously , military expenditure that is low relative to GDP signals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Such spending may have mattered less for a time after the Cold War , but now the circumstances have changed , and a NATO that sails along without a serious stocktaking will find itself in trouble .
The United States no longer dominates .
Americans have become increasingly anxious about an array of festering problems at home , and COVID-19 and the ensuing economic crisis will add to their worries .
The country may be less able or willing to come to Europe ’ s aid .
Meanwhile , Russian President Vladimir @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up Russia ’ s military might .
Against this background , the proposition that Europe should defend itself , not least because the European members of NATO together have a GDP of $ 18 trillion compared to Russia ’ s $ 1.66 trillion , is more appealing to both the Trump administration and the public at large .
All Europeans , and not just Germans , would therefore do well to understand that the discord within NATO over burden-sharing won ’ t magically disappear if Trump loses the presidential election this November .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will—to reduce the U.S. military presence in Germany represents a particularly fraught instantiation of long-standing frictions within NATO .
And the changes that have occurred within the United States and in the distribution of power in the world will make it more contentious and harder to smooth over .
This much is clear : Left unaddressed , Europe ’ s insufficient military spending could well jeopardize the alliance ’ s future , and the standard appeals to common values and the hallowed tradition of Euro-Atlanticism won ’ t suffice to patch it together @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump .

U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement —and subsequent confirmation —that he would reduce the 35,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany by 28 percent provoked a barrage of criticism. And although U.S. politics remain as partisan as ever, the critics included both Democrats and Republicans .
U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement—and subsequent confirmation—that he would reduce the 35,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany by 28 percent provoked a barrage of criticism. And although U.S. politics remain as partisan as ever, the critics included both Democrats and Republicans.
Those who took issue with Trump’s announcement charged that it had blindsided the German government, with lawmakers in the Bundestag calling the president’s announcement “regrettable,” even “completely unacceptable.” The decision came without any evident coordination among foreign-policy and national-security bureaucracies, and it did not appear to be guided by a larger strategy.
These criticisms point to a familiar problem. In the Trump administration, impulse too often passes for policy. Even so, focusing solely on Trump’s abrupt decision lets Germany off the hook too easily. It obscures the larger context of this controversy, namely how NATO works today and Europe’s role within it.
To begin with, the German armed forces are in a sorry state, and that’s not because Germany, more important to NATO’s efficacy as a collective defense pact than any other European member state, lacks the means to fix this problem. It does not.
Germany’s gross domestic product, valued at $4 trillion, ranks fourth in the world and first in Europe. The country is also Europe’s technological powerhouse. Indeed, in 2018, the World Economic Forum hailed it as the world’s leader in technological innovation.
And yet the German military remains riddled with problems. A damning 2019 report (available in an English-language summary) issued by the Bundestag’s then commissioner for the armed forces, Hans-Peter Bartels, summed up the problem.
The number of recruits to the Bundeswehr, Germany’s military, has been falling and dropped to an unprecedented 20,000 in 2018, a trend that hasn’t been reversed. Moreover, thousands of officer and noncommissioned officer slots remain unfilled. Following NATO’s 2014 Wales summit, the German government had proposed increasing the number of soldiers to 198,500 by 2025, but given the dismal recruitment trend, that amounts to a pipe dream.
The Bartels report also highlighted other serious problems. Critical equipment such as body armor, night vision gear, radios for secure communication, and transport helicopters remains chronically scarce, as do spare parts. In consequence, the air force, army, and navy all have training and readiness problems. They’re faced with “fighter jets and helicopters that don’t fly. Ships and submarines that can’t sail,” quipped a 2019 piece in Politico. Other assessments likewise point in the steep decline in the number of tanks and combat aircraft owing to cutbacks in procurement.
Perhaps most embarrassingly, the development of the F-125 Baden Württemberg-class frigate, the much-touted replacement for the F-122 Bremen class, has sputtered. The effort started in 2007, but a host of software and hardware glitches delayed sea trials until 2017, after which the ship was deemed unfit for use. Although the lead vessel did eventually enter service in 2019, the frigate is widely understood to be unable to fulfill the mission that served as its original rationale: conducting protracted operations in distant locales while parrying threats from an adversary’s aircraft, destroyers, and submarines.
In many ways, the German military’s failures come down to insufficient defense spending. At the 2014 meeting in Wales, Germany and Washington’s other NATO allies agreed to devote at least 2 percent of their individual GDPs to defense spending by 2024. By 2019, however, only seven of the alliance’s 29 members (now 30, with the entry of North Macedonia this year), had either met or exceeded the two-percent target. Greece, at 2.24 percent, was furthest along. Germany came in at 1.36 percent.
German Chancellor Angela’s Merkel’s admission in 2018 that Germany would not reach the 2 percent mark enraged Trump, and his feelings were duly relayed to Berlin by his bull-in-a-China-shop ambassador, Richard Grenell.
Trump has tended to frame his displeasure as a failure of burden-sharing in NATO. But perhaps even more seriously, military expenditure that is low relative to GDP signals a lack of commitment to national defense. Such spending may have mattered less for a time after the Cold War, but now the circumstances have changed, and a NATO that sails along without a serious stocktaking will find itself in trouble.
The United States no longer dominates. Americans have become increasingly anxious about an array of festering problems at home, and COVID-19 and the ensuing economic crisis will add to their worries. The country may be less able or willing to come to Europe’s aid. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made substantial investment in beefing up Russia’s military might.
Against this background, the proposition that Europe should defend itself, not least because the European members of NATO together have a GDP of $18 trillion compared to Russia’s $1.66 trillion, is more appealing to both the Trump administration and the public at large.
All Europeans, and not just Germans, would therefore do well to understand that the discord within NATO over burden-sharing won’t magically disappear if Trump loses the presidential election this November. His plan or threat—call it what you will—to reduce the U.S. military presence in Germany represents a particularly fraught instantiation of long-standing frictions within NATO. And the changes that have occurred within the United States and in the distribution of power in the world will make it more contentious and harder to smooth over.
This much is clear: Left unaddressed, Europe’s insufficient military spending could well jeopardize the alliance’s future, and the standard appeals to common values and the hallowed tradition of Euro-Atlanticism won’t suffice to patch it together. Nor will the eventual departure of Trump.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-18--Foreign ISIS Children Deserve a Home

Foreign ISIS Children Deserve a Home

Across the globe , hundreds of thousands of citizens have been evacuated to their home countries in recent months—the largest repatriation in history .
But these coronavirus airlifts have passed over a particularly desperate group : the children of foreign Islamic State fighters .
For years , the fate of these foreign families—originating from an estimated 70 countries—has hung in the balance as governments battle over the extent of their responsibilities .
The need for an expansive , compassionate , and rigorous solution has never been more urgent nor the stakes higher .
Some 70,000 women and children previously associated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held in northern Syria in camps controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF ) , a mostly Kurdish militia that defeated the militant group with the backing of the United States , United Kingdom , and other members of the international coalition .
Of those , an estimated 11,000 to 13,500 are foreign to Syria and Iraq , and most are children .
( Separately , some 2,000 foreign men and 9,000 locals from Syria and Iraq are imprisoned in nearby camps . )
The situation at al-Hol and Roj detention camps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The camps face severe overcrowding ( the population of al-Hol ballooned nearly 700 percent last year ) and high rates of child mortality .
Children made up nearly three-quarters of deaths at the camp last year , many of them dying from preventable causes such as malnutrition and hypothermia .
The SDF has struggled to maintain control over the detained populations , at time ceding control to extremists implementing rules not dissimilar to those of the caliphate .
Hisba—or religious police—enforce rules around clothing and behavior within the camp , even carrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ videos shot at the camp chanting Islamic State slogans and praising the group ’ s flag .
Indoctrination of children , and implementation of the group ’ s austere reading of sharia , or Islamic law , is very much ongoing , raising concerns over both child welfare and the future security risks posed by leaving them in the camps .
There are also very acute external threats to the integrity of the camps .
Any assault by regime forces , Turkish-backed rebels , or Islamic State sleeper cells on SDF positions could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leaving the camps unguarded .
Already , this has happened at least once .
When Turkey began Operation Peace Spring in October 2019 , with the stated goal of creating a “ safe zone ” 20 miles deep on its border with the SDF , Turkish shelling in the vicinity of a camp at Ain Issa led at least 750 people with suspected links to the Islamic State to flee the camp .
Conditions at al-Hol have deteriorated since Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in October .
A number of international aid groups have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ camp to protect their staff from direct shelling by the Turkish military .
And , as expected , the SDF started redeploying some of the 400 guards at the camp to confront the Turkish incursion .
At the time of writing , Kurdish authorities retain control over the two primary detention facilities for foreign women and children .
Yet as the case of Ain Issa camp shows , this is not something that can be guaranteed in the long run .
The spread of the coronavirus has raised the stakes .
The camps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distancing and hand-washing all but impossible .
Save the Children has warned that the poor health of many of the detained children make them particularly vulnerable should the virus spread .
The area where the foreigners are housed is particularly underserved .
Given the myriad internal and external dangers facing the camp , there has never been greater urgency for foreign governments to act .
There is no guarantee that in a month from now , these children will still be safely detained in these camps or that governments will still be able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control over what happens to their citizens .
Ultimately , there are three key options : leave everyone there and hope for the best ; repatriate some individuals and leave the rest to their fate ; or install a principled and active policy for repatriation and reintegration .
As it stands , public opinion polling shows strong opposition to repatriating Islamic State fighters or their families—one poll last year showed 89 percent of French respondents were worried about the prospect of Islamic State members being returned to France and 67 percent objected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation as it is is leaving the disease of jihadism to fester and grow in a new generation—and we will suffer its consequences again at some point in the future .
But leaving everyone there will not keep anyone safe .
Keeping fighters and their families in camps increases the likelihood that eventually some , quite possibly many , of these individuals will escape or be released by some confluence of circumstances .
The SDF is unlikely to be able to sustain the camps as external pressures mount .
Once they do escape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not be any less radical than they were before .
They will continue to be a real threat in the region , and many may well be able to find their way back to Europe at some point .
Leaving the situation as it is is leaving the disease of jihadism to fester and grow in a new generation—and we will suffer its consequences again at some point in the future .
When it comes to repatriation , the least morally ambiguous case is that of young orphans .
A handful of Western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , France , and Australia , have repatriated a very small number of orphaned children—most handing them over to grandparents or other family members .
( Other countries , particularly in Central Asia , have been far more proactive , repatriating hundreds of women and children and rolling out elaborate rehabilitation programs . )
Even in cases where public opinion might be opposed , this should be nonnegotiable .
There is no concept of morality that permits leaving orphans to die .
For children who are still with their mothers , illegal , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But most European countries have balked at the suggestion of repatriating adults along with children and opted instead to leave the children in the camps with their mothers .
Some mothers have formally given up custody of their children , signing away their parental rights in a bid to offer them a chance of a better future or out of health concerns .
Others have resorted to paying smugglers to sneak them out of the camp .
Unfortunately , some still remain committed to Islamic State ideology , awaiting the group ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children .
A handful of governments have made a stronger effort to repatriate their own nationals than others .
Malaysia , Kosovo , Russia , and Uzbekistan are countries that have made concerted efforts to begin repatriations , with Moscow ’ s efforts among those to particularly emphasize children , according to the International Crisis Group .
Conversely , Morocco , Tunisia , and other North African countries have done little , as have EU member states , Canada , and Australia .
But even in cases where foreign governments have yielded to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abandoning their mothers or fathers , we return back to the first scenario .
Most of these people will not just roll over and die—as much as some members of the public want .
They will try , and likely succeed , to escape .
They will regroup .
And they will fight back .
If foreign governments , particularly Western ones , want to prevent a resurgence rather than be drawn back into an endless battle , they would be wise to take a proactive stance .
To start with , foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determining the guilt or innocence of all of their detained foreign nationals , such as with an international task force .
This joint effort should gather evidence for prosecuting the crimes committed by individuals affiliated with the Islamic State .
Plea deals for the return of some men could be made contingent on collaboration with authorities .
Local journalists and investigators could be employed to gather the evidence to build such cases .
There is already some movement toward something like this .
Last year , the Swedish government sought support from European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war crimes perpetrated in Iraq and Syria by Islamic State fighters .
In April , Germany began unilateral prosecution of individuals believed to have committed crimes in Syria , under the concept of universal jurisdiction .
The German government , and legal experts involved , should be consulted regarding evidence gathering and prosecuting .
There are also precedents in the international courts established to prosecute crimes committed in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia that could serve as models for a tribunal based in Iraq .
Those found guilty could serve sentences in Iraq @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the latest and best deradicalization programs .
Those acquitted , those found to be victims of the Islamic State , and children should be repatriated and given adequate psychological , psychiatric , and even spiritual support—with the aim of fully reintegrating them into mainstream society .
This is the only way to defuse the potential threat that they pose in the long run .
Delivering proper judicial accountability to individuals will inevitably require time to implement properly , so the pro-socialization initiatives will need to start even before any repatriation program—certainly for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can serve as an immediate and relatively straightforward solution , building on and developing the existing youth facilities already present in the region for these purposes .
For example , facilities such as the Hori center near Qamishli are already functioning as juvenile rehabilitation facilities for orphans of any nationality .
Actors must work quickly to scale up their capacity and should be able to do so with funding and expertise from European states and international aid organizations .
This center ’ s deradicalization abilities are currently limited , but they do offer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be taken out of the camps and given the close monitoring and support they may need—without the legal hurdles of immediately repatriating them to European countries .
NGOs , legal groups , and social and health care workers are far better able to evaluate and support children held in these centers rather than working in the extreme environment in the detention camps .
Facilities of this kind can serve as halfway houses while the long-term solutions are pursued .
The international community could supply psychological , social , and legal experts to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these centers , which operate like boarding schools , children would continue to have access to their family members but would be offered structure , housing , education , and medical support .
Here , European governments could work with staff on the ground to predetermine the best strategies , on an individual basis , for repatriating and resocializing every child .
An increase in aid will obviously be necessary .
The humanitarian situation in the camps has been widely denounced by aid agencies for years , as they have struggled with access @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will to deal with the Islamic State supporters and their families is matched by a lack of resources to adequately meet their daily needs , with issues of malnutrition and ill-health prevalent and a complete lack of adequate infrastructure for the short- or long-term care of vulnerable children .
Diplomatic and financial resources need to be invested into developing this short-term infrastructure until the adequate long-term solutions have been reached .
Though there may not be much political appetite for this policy at the moment , it should appeal to nearly any nation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Islamic State once festered and grew in the prison of Iraq and Syria ; let us not allow such a mistake to occur again .

Across the globe, hundreds of thousands of citizens have been evacuated to their home countries in recent months—the largest repatriation in history. But these coronavirus airlifts have passed over a particularly desperate group: the children of foreign Islamic State fighters. For years, the fate of these foreign families—originating from an estimated 70 countries —has hung in the balance as governments battle over the extent of their responsibilities. The need for an expansive, compassionate, and rigorous solution has never been more urgent nor the stakes higher.
Across the globe, hundreds of thousands of citizens have been evacuated to their home countries in recent months—the largest repatriation in history. But these coronavirus airlifts have passed over a particularly desperate group: the children of foreign Islamic State fighters. For years, the fate of these foreign families—originating from an estimated 70 countries—has hung in the balance as governments battle over the extent of their responsibilities. The need for an expansive, compassionate, and rigorous solution has never been more urgent nor the stakes higher.
Some 70,000 women and children previously associated with the Islamic State caliphate are being held in northern Syria in camps controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mostly Kurdish militia that defeated the militant group with the backing of the United States, United Kingdom, and other members of the international coalition. Of those, an estimated 11,000 to 13,500 are foreign to Syria and Iraq, and most are children. (Separately, some 2,000 foreign men and 9,000 locals from Syria and Iraq are imprisoned in nearby camps.)
The situation at al-Hol and Roj detention camps is precarious at the best of times. The camps face severe overcrowding (the population of al-Hol ballooned nearly 700 percent last year) and high rates of child mortality. Children made up nearly three-quarters of deaths at the camp last year, many of them dying from preventable causes such as malnutrition and hypothermia.
The SDF has struggled to maintain control over the detained populations, at time ceding control to extremists implementing rules not dissimilar to those of the caliphate. Hisba—or religious police—enforce rules around clothing and behavior within the camp, even carrying out executions. Children have appeared in videos shot at the camp chanting Islamic State slogans and praising the group’s flag. Indoctrination of children, and implementation of the group’s austere reading of sharia, or Islamic law, is very much ongoing, raising concerns over both child welfare and the future security risks posed by leaving them in the camps.
There are also very acute external threats to the integrity of the camps. Any assault by regime forces, Turkish-backed rebels, or Islamic State sleeper cells on SDF positions could see camp guards redeployed to battlefronts, leaving the camps unguarded. Already, this has happened at least once. When Turkey began Operation Peace Spring in October 2019, with the stated goal of creating a “safe zone” 20 miles deep on its border with the SDF, Turkish shelling in the vicinity of a camp at Ain Issa led at least 750 people with suspected links to the Islamic State to flee the camp.
Conditions at al-Hol have deteriorated since Turkey invaded northeastern Syria in October. A number of international aid groups have been forced to suspend work in the camp to protect their staff from direct shelling by the Turkish military. And, as expected, the SDF started redeploying some of the 400 guards at the camp to confront the Turkish incursion.
At the time of writing, Kurdish authorities retain control over the two primary detention facilities for foreign women and children. Yet as the case of Ain Issa camp shows, this is not something that can be guaranteed in the long run.
The spread of the coronavirus has raised the stakes. The camps are overcrowded and lack adequate water—making social distancing and hand-washing all but impossible. Save the Children has warned that the poor health of many of the detained children make them particularly vulnerable should the virus spread. The area where the foreigners are housed is particularly underserved.
Given the myriad internal and external dangers facing the camp, there has never been greater urgency for foreign governments to act. There is no guarantee that in a month from now, these children will still be safely detained in these camps or that governments will still be able to reach the camps or have any control over what happens to their citizens.
Ultimately, there are three key options: leave everyone there and hope for the best; repatriate some individuals and leave the rest to their fate; or install a principled and active policy for repatriation and reintegration.
As it stands, public opinion polling shows strong opposition to repatriating Islamic State fighters or their families—one poll last year showed 89 percent of French respondents were worried about the prospect of Islamic State members being returned to France and 67 percent objected to the return of children.
Leaving the situation as it is is leaving the disease of jihadism to fester and grow in a new generation—and we will suffer its consequences again at some point in the future. But leaving everyone there will not keep anyone safe. Keeping fighters and their families in camps increases the likelihood that eventually some, quite possibly many, of these individuals will escape or be released by some confluence of circumstances. The SDF is unlikely to be able to sustain the camps as external pressures mount.
Once they do escape, these foreign Islamic State families will not be any less radical than they were before. They will continue to be a real threat in the region, and many may well be able to find their way back to Europe at some point. Leaving the situation as it is is leaving the disease of jihadism to fester and grow in a new generation—and we will suffer its consequences again at some point in the future.
When it comes to repatriation, the least morally ambiguous case is that of young orphans. A handful of Western countries, including the U.K., Sweden, France, and Australia, have repatriated a very small number of orphaned children—most handing them over to grandparents or other family members. (Other countries, particularly in Central Asia, have been far more proactive, repatriating hundreds of women and children and rolling out elaborate rehabilitation programs.) Even in cases where public opinion might be opposed, this should be nonnegotiable. There is no concept of morality that permits leaving orphans to die.
For children who are still with their mothers, illegal, forcible separation is hardly an option. But most European countries have balked at the suggestion of repatriating adults along with children and opted instead to leave the children in the camps with their mothers. Some mothers have formally given up custody of their children, signing away their parental rights in a bid to offer them a chance of a better future or out of health concerns. Others have resorted to paying smugglers to sneak them out of the camp. Unfortunately, some still remain committed to Islamic State ideology, awaiting the group’s resurrection to liberate them together with their children.
A handful of governments have made a stronger effort to repatriate their own nationals than others. Malaysia, Kosovo, Russia, and Uzbekistan are countries that have made concerted efforts to begin repatriations, with Moscow’s efforts among those to particularly emphasize children, according to the International Crisis Group. Conversely, Morocco, Tunisia, and other North African countries have done little, as have EU member states, Canada, and Australia.
But even in cases where foreign governments have yielded to the moral imperative of repatriating children, abandoning their mothers or fathers, we return back to the first scenario. Most of these people will not just roll over and die—as much as some members of the public want. They will try, and likely succeed, to escape. They will regroup. And they will fight back.
If foreign governments, particularly Western ones, want to prevent a resurgence rather than be drawn back into an endless battle, they would be wise to take a proactive stance.
To start with, foreign governments must develop a robust system for determining the guilt or innocence of all of their detained foreign nationals, such as with an international task force.
This joint effort should gather evidence for prosecuting the crimes committed by individuals affiliated with the Islamic State. Plea deals for the return of some men could be made contingent on collaboration with authorities. Local journalists and investigators could be employed to gather the evidence to build such cases.
There is already some movement toward something like this. Last year, the Swedish government sought support from European allies for an international tribunal to prosecute war crimes perpetrated in Iraq and Syria by Islamic State fighters. In April, Germany began unilateral prosecution of individuals believed to have committed crimes in Syria, under the concept of universal jurisdiction. The German government, and legal experts involved, should be consulted regarding evidence gathering and prosecuting. There are also precedents in the international courts established to prosecute crimes committed in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia that could serve as models for a tribunal based in Iraq.
Those found guilty could serve sentences in Iraq and, where possible, be treated with the latest and best deradicalization programs. Those acquitted, those found to be victims of the Islamic State, and children should be repatriated and given adequate psychological, psychiatric, and even spiritual support—with the aim of fully reintegrating them into mainstream society. This is the only way to defuse the potential threat that they pose in the long run.
Delivering proper judicial accountability to individuals will inevitably require time to implement properly, so the pro-socialization initiatives will need to start even before any repatriation program—certainly for the younger children. Youth rehabilitation centers can serve as an immediate and relatively straightforward solution, building on and developing the existing youth facilities already present in the region for these purposes.
For example, facilities such as the Hori center near Qamishli are already functioning as juvenile rehabilitation facilities for orphans of any nationality. Actors must work quickly to scale up their capacity and should be able to do so with funding and expertise from European states and international aid organizations. This center’s deradicalization abilities are currently limited, but they do offer a means by which orphaned children can be taken out of the camps and given the close monitoring and support they may need—without the legal hurdles of immediately repatriating them to European countries.
NGOs, legal groups, and social and health care workers are far better able to evaluate and support children held in these centers rather than working in the extreme environment in the detention camps. Facilities of this kind can serve as halfway houses while the long-term solutions are pursued. The international community could supply psychological, social, and legal experts to be permanently based in these centers.
In these centers, which operate like boarding schools, children would continue to have access to their family members but would be offered structure, housing, education, and medical support. Here, European governments could work with staff on the ground to predetermine the best strategies, on an individual basis, for repatriating and resocializing every child.
An increase in aid will obviously be necessary. The humanitarian situation in the camps has been widely denounced by aid agencies for years, as they have struggled with access and funds. The lack of political will to deal with the Islamic State supporters and their families is matched by a lack of resources to adequately meet their daily needs, with issues of malnutrition and ill-health prevalent and a complete lack of adequate infrastructure for the short- or long-term care of vulnerable children. Diplomatic and financial resources need to be invested into developing this short-term infrastructure until the adequate long-term solutions have been reached.
Though there may not be much political appetite for this policy at the moment, it should appeal to nearly any nation’s long-term strategic interests. The Islamic State once festered and grew in the prison of Iraq and Syria; let us not allow such a mistake to occur again.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-19--Religious Leaders Must Not Be Tempted to Jump on the Reopening Bandwagon

Religious Leaders Must Not Be Tempted to Jump on the Reopening Bandwagon Until a vaccine to inoculate against the coronavirus is found , governments around the world will impose a variety of measures to adjust to this temporary normal .
Beyond the worldly question of restarting a country ’ s economy is a spiritual question about the necessity of opening places of worship .
Earlier this month , the British government announced a limited reopening of places of worship in England , and there is increasing pressure on governments to go even further .
But these calculations need to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has contracted the coronavirus myself along with most of my family , I ’ m worried that many countries are not as ready for reopening as they seem to think they are .
It is wholly understandable why believers want to return to churches , mosques , temples , and synagogues for congregational prayer and spiritual comfort .
But that doesn ’ t mean religious leaders have to act irresponsibly .
In the space of a few days earlier this month , my entire household appeared to have COVID-19 .
Not all of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us showed the same symptoms .
As the science shows , the disease is incredibly infectious—and can pass through a family like wildfire .
For elderly family members , it was far more concerning—and we still aren ’ t out of the woods .
This disease is not something to be taken lightly .
And yet , leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump , and several religious leaders , are keen to reopen places of worship without restrictions—for reasons ranging from the sacred to the profane .
Or to put it more bluntly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ populist desires .
Many people of faith are asking , reasonably : If malls and shops can open , then why can ’ t places of worship open too ?
It ’ s not an unfair request .
Many believers of all faiths are deeply connected to their places of worship .
Over the course of the last couple of months , religious people and their leaders have been feeling the pain of being separated from those places .
And now that other restrictions are being relaxed , they ’ re demanding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There are really two primary factors at play .
The first is that economic restrictions are being lifted not because the public health safety issues have changed but because the economic cost of keeping those restrictions in force are beginning to overtake those risks , at least in the minds of government officials .
One needn ’ t second-guess them in this regard , because the truth is that economic health is deeply connected to public health ; if fewer people suffer from COVID-19 than from going hungry due to the economy shutting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consideration .
When it comes to places of worship , however , the same calculations don ’ t apply .
All people of faith know that the divine is not limited to a certain space—and worship can be adjusted in order to make all situations , including difficult ones like this , work .
Congregational prayers in mosques , for example , in the Islamic tradition , can be suspended for many reasons—including for public health reasons .
There is even an ancient practice of adding a line in the daily calls to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their homes .
It ’ s why , for example , the weekly Friday congregational prayer for Muslims was formally more or less suspended as an obligation in most Muslim-majority communities worldwide—even the Eid prayer following Ramadan followed that pattern—and believers were reminded by their religious leaders that their spiritual recompense would be the same .
Indeed , placing undue importance on these physical places of worship is imbalanced and wrong .
Secondly , there are some situations in which restrictions on places of worship can be lifted— even right now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , have lifted many of the restrictions on churches because the risks have diminished tremendously owing to their success in battling the outbreak .
In other countries , where the risks are not as low , other places of worship are arranging congregational communal prayer , but with very careful measures being implemented , often meaning that they pray in parking lots with social distancing enforced .
But all of this requires people to take responsibility for enforcing certain measures .
It does mean enforcing social distancing measures without exception , ensuring people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worship thoroughly and regularly ( which is costly ) , and so on .
This places huge responsibilities upon the administrators of places of worship .
And it ’ s likely that they will not want to take up the full gambit of duties and expenses that cautious reopening requires .
Rather , they ’ re more likely to shift those responsibilities to individual worshippers and congregants .
Mosques would ask for worshippers to bring their own individual prayer mats , without being able to enforce it .
Churches would have to pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without necessarily having the budget to do so .
And the list goes on .
When it comes to resuming group prayer , there is an overriding ethical-spiritual consideration : the protection of life—and particularly the lives of the most vulnerable .
That includes the elderly who wish to come and pray in these buildings , but it also includes the elderly who remain at home , but who are cared for by those younger people who do want to come and pray .
Places of worship would have to be prepared for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worship , encounter others who are not distancing , and then return home to infect their elderly parents .
It ’ s difficult to see how religious establishments are going to be able to choose who can attend prayers and who can ’ t—let alone where responsibility will lie if the choices are made poorly , with possibly deadly effects .
For the time being , places of worship in England will be open only for “ private prayer , ” which means that congregational prayer is off the table , but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worship in England may be open from July 4 , at least as the government restrictions are concerned .
But just because government restrictions are lifted , it doesn ’ t mean religious leaders are under the obligation to fling open the gates .
Religious leaders do not need to be—nor should they be—concerned with economic issues when considering the opening of their religious spaces .
Rather , their concern ought to be focused purely on the health and safety of those attending those spaces .
This isn ’ t a permanent situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be more effective treatments , and hopefully a vaccine so that a critical mass of people can be immunized from this virus .
When that time comes , those who administer places of worship can feel secure in knowing they lived up to their responsibilities to their congregants .
But most countries aren ’ t there yet—and until they are , religious leaders need to think very carefully about whether individual places of worship can open safely .
To get this wrong is , quite literally , a matter of life and @ @

Until a vaccine to inoculate against the coronavirus is found, governments around the world will impose a variety of measures to adjust to this temporary normal. Beyond the worldly question of restarting a country’s economy is a spiritual question about the necessity of opening places of worship. Earlier this month, the British government announced a limited reopening of places of worship in England, and there is increasing pressure on governments to go even further.
Until a vaccine to inoculate against the coronavirus is found, governments around the world will impose a variety of measures to adjust to this temporary normal. Beyond the worldly question of restarting a country’s economy is a spiritual question about the necessity of opening places of worship. Earlier this month, the British government announced a limited reopening of places of worship in England, and there is increasing pressure on governments to go even further.
But these calculations need to be made very carefully. As someone who has contracted the coronavirus myself along with most of my family, I’m worried that many countries are not as ready for reopening as they seem to think they are.
It is wholly understandable why believers want to return to churches, mosques, temples, and synagogues for congregational prayer and spiritual comfort. But that doesn’t mean religious leaders have to act irresponsibly.
In the space of a few days earlier this month, my entire household appeared to have COVID-19. Not all of us were tested, but most of us showed the same symptoms. As the science shows, the disease is incredibly infectious—and can pass through a family like wildfire. For elderly family members, it was far more concerning—and we still aren’t out of the woods.
This disease is not something to be taken lightly. And yet, leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump, and several religious leaders, are keen to reopen places of worship without restrictions—for reasons ranging from the sacred to the profane. Or to put it more bluntly, for electoral benefit by playing on populist desires. Many people of faith are asking, reasonably: If malls and shops can open, then why can’t places of worship open too?
It’s not an unfair request. Many believers of all faiths are deeply connected to their places of worship. Over the course of the last couple of months, religious people and their leaders have been feeling the pain of being separated from those places. And now that other restrictions are being relaxed, they’re demanding the same relaxation on places of worship.
There are really two primary factors at play. The first is that economic restrictions are being lifted not because the public health safety issues have changed but because the economic cost of keeping those restrictions in force are beginning to overtake those risks, at least in the minds of government officials. One needn’t second-guess them in this regard, because the truth is that economic health is deeply connected to public health; if fewer people suffer from COVID-19 than from going hungry due to the economy shutting down, that’s a serious consideration.
When it comes to places of worship, however, the same calculations don’t apply. All people of faith know that the divine is not limited to a certain space—and worship can be adjusted in order to make all situations, including difficult ones like this, work. Congregational prayers in mosques, for example, in the Islamic tradition, can be suspended for many reasons—including for public health reasons. There is even an ancient practice of adding a line in the daily calls to prayer that urge the faithful to pray in their homes.
It’s why, for example, the weekly Friday congregational prayer for Muslims was formally more or less suspended as an obligation in most Muslim-majority communities worldwide—even the Eid prayer following Ramadan followed that pattern—and believers were reminded by their religious leaders that their spiritual recompense would be the same. Indeed, placing undue importance on these physical places of worship is imbalanced and wrong.
Secondly, there are some situations in which restrictions on places of worship can be lifted— even right now. New Zealand and Taiwan, for example, have lifted many of the restrictions on churches because the risks have diminished tremendously owing to their success in battling the outbreak. In other countries, where the risks are not as low, other places of worship are arranging congregational communal prayer, but with very careful measures being implemented, often meaning that they pray in parking lots with social distancing enforced.
But all of this requires people to take responsibility for enforcing certain measures. It does mean enforcing social distancing measures without exception, ensuring people always wear masks, decontaminating places of worship thoroughly and regularly (which is costly), and so on.
This places huge responsibilities upon the administrators of places of worship. And it’s likely that they will not want to take up the full gambit of duties and expenses that cautious reopening requires. Rather, they’re more likely to shift those responsibilities to individual worshippers and congregants. Mosques would ask for worshippers to bring their own individual prayer mats, without being able to enforce it. Churches would have to pay the costs for sanitizing their pews, without necessarily having the budget to do so. And the list goes on.
When it comes to resuming group prayer, there is an overriding ethical-spiritual consideration: the protection of life—and particularly the lives of the most vulnerable. That includes the elderly who wish to come and pray in these buildings, but it also includes the elderly who remain at home, but who are cared for by those younger people who do want to come and pray.
Places of worship would have to be prepared for young people who go to places of worship, encounter others who are not distancing, and then return home to infect their elderly parents. It’s difficult to see how religious establishments are going to be able to choose who can attend prayers and who can’t—let alone where responsibility will lie if the choices are made poorly, with possibly deadly effects.
For the time being, places of worship in England will be open only for “private prayer,” which means that congregational prayer is off the table, but it’s possible that all places of worship in England may be open from July 4, at least as the government restrictions are concerned.
But just because government restrictions are lifted, it doesn’t mean religious leaders are under the obligation to fling open the gates. Religious leaders do not need to be—nor should they be—concerned with economic issues when considering the opening of their religious spaces. Rather, their concern ought to be focused purely on the health and safety of those attending those spaces.
This isn’t a permanent situation. At some point soon, there will be more effective treatments, and hopefully a vaccine so that a critical mass of people can be immunized from this virus. When that time comes, those who administer places of worship can feel secure in knowing they lived up to their responsibilities to their congregants. But most countries aren’t there yet—and until they are, religious leaders need to think very carefully about whether individual places of worship can open safely. To get this wrong is, quite literally, a matter of life and death.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-19--South Korean Minister Resigns Amid Worsening Ties With North

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : South Korea ’ s unification minister resigns over worsening ties with North , China releases Indian soldiers after mountain brawl , and Australia says it is under cyberattack from a “ sophisticated state-based cyber actor ” .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Before you jump into today ’ s brief , FP invites you to take a few ( very quick ) moments to fill out a brief questionnaire .
We hope it will help us better understand our readers so we can continue to deliver for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time .
South Korean Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul became the first political casualty of renewed tensions on the Korean peninsula when he stepped down from his position early this morning .
Kim had offered to resign on Wednesday as ties between the two countries worsened and today it was accepted by President Moon Jae-in .
The new spat began over the issue of South Korean defector groups dropping leaflets across the North Korean border .
Pyongyang has attempted to show its zero tolerance approach to such activity by threatening to re-garrison abandoned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On Tuesday , North Korea produced a visual display of its displeasure by blowing up a four-story building used as an inter-Korean liaison office .
A waning Moon ?
The crisis has damaged President Moon Jae-in , fresh from his party ’ s landslide victory in parliamentary elections amid global plaudits for his handling of South Korea ’ s coronavirus epidemic .
A Gallup Korea poll released today showed Moon ’ s approval rating at 55 percent , its lowest level in almost three months .
Has South Korea made the right moves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in increasingly aggressive statements , Moon ’ s government attempted to defuse the issue by banning defector organizations .
Such actions have not stopped North Korea ’ s threats .
Writing in Foreign Policy on June 16 , Doug Bandow argued that South Korea ’ s approach requires a rethink , as the current posture “ sacrifices citizens ’ basic rights and encourages North Korea to make additional demands.
” By banning defector organizations “ Seoul abandoned its leverage , ” he wrote .
“ The North fears propaganda directed at its citizens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the South should encourage them.
” Brazilian minister steps down .
Brazilian Education Minister Abraham Weintraub—considered a loyal ally of President Jair Bolsonaro—resigned on Thursday following Weintraub ’ s appearance at a Sunday rally protesting against the country ’ s Supreme Court .
Bolsonaro had issued a public scolding to Weintraub after he spoke at the rally , fueling speculation about his position and suggesting a more conciliatory approach from the president toward the court .
Weintraub ’ s exit is one of many cabinet positions vacated in the past few months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moro as well as the departure of two health ministers .
China releases Indian soldiers after mountain brawl .
Ten Indian soldiers have been released from Chinese custody after being captured during Monday ’ s deadly clash in the Galwan valley on the India-China border , an Indian newspaper has reported .
Although Indian authorities had said that 20 of its forces had died in the fighting , they had not confirmed that any of their soldiers were missing .
Both India and China will join Russia for trilateral talks next week in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France and Turkey spar over ship incident .
Tensions between France and Turkey continued to rise after French Defense Minister Florence Parly said a Turkish ship refused to identify itself and its mission after an approach by a French vessel on a NATO mission to check on suspected weapons smuggling to Libya .
Turkish sailors donned bulletproof vests and took up positions behind light weaponry during the incident , according to Parly .
“ This act was extremely aggressive and can not be one of an ally facing another ally who is doing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Parly said .
Turkey called France ’ s claims “ baseless.
” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that NATO is investigating the incident “ to bring full clarity into what happened.
” Belarus protests .
Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Belarus after authorities detained Viktor Babariko , one of the main challengers to President Alexander Lukashenko in the country ’ s upcoming election .
Babariko is accused of taking $ 430 million out of Belarus in a money-laundering operation .
His campaign called the accusations an “ absurdity ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ human rights ” and promised to still field him in the August election .
As Vitali Shkliarov wrote in Foreign Policy on June 4 , the coronavirus pandemic has given Belarusians a rare chance to voice dissent .
“ The ability of Belarusians to wear masks and gather in public , which was previously banned because the government didn ’ t want protesters to hide their faces , has given them the ability to be anonymous and engage in political discourse never before available to them without fear of reprisal for the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China charges Canadians with espionage .
Chinese prosecutors announced today that they have charged two Canadians in Chinese detention with espionage .
Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor have been held by Chinese authorities since 2018 in what is seen as a reciprocal move by Beijing after the arrest of Meng Wanzhou , the chief financial officer of Huawei , by Canadian police .
Meng is currently under house arrest in Vancouver while fighting a Canadian court battle to halt her extradition to the United States .
Australia under cyberattack .
A number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ targeted by a “ sophisticated state-based cyber actor , ” according to Prime Minister Scott Morrison .
Morrison did not name the country responsible but said the activity had been taking place “ over many months.
” Morrison said his government had raised the alarm in order to alert essential services in health and other sectors to “ implement technical defences to thwart this malicious cyber activity.
” World refugee numbers rise .
A new report by the United Nations refugee agency found that the number of refugees worldwide increased by 9 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of roughly 80 million people .
Only 107,000 refugees were resettled in third countries , with Canada receiving the most with 31,100 .
The United States received the second highest number with 27,500 resettled in 2019 .
A radical Russian cleric has occupied a convent near Yekaterinburg and media organizations report that armed guards are now protecting the premises .
The priest , Father Sergii Romanov , had been banned from preaching by the Orthodox church in April after he gave sermons claiming the coronavirus did not exist and encouraged worshippers to ignore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Easter celebrations .
The Yekaterinburg diocese said that the convent ’ s superior has left the convent along with four other nuns .
Police have entered the convent since Romanov took his stand but have not yet reported any violations according to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: South Korea ’s unification minister resigns over worsening ties with North, China releases Indian soldiers after mountain brawl, and Australia says it is under cyberattack from a “sophisticated state-based cyber actor.”
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: South Korea’s unification minister resigns over worsening ties with North, China releases Indian soldiers after mountain brawl, and Australia says it is under cyberattack from a “sophisticated state-based cyber actor.”
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
S. Korea’s Unification Minister Becomes First Casualty of North’s Renewed Pressure
South Korean Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul became the first political casualty of renewed tensions on the Korean peninsula when he stepped down from his position early this morning. Kim had offered to resign on Wednesday as ties between the two countries worsened and today it was accepted by President Moon Jae-in.
The new spat began over the issue of South Korean defector groups dropping leaflets across the North Korean border. Pyongyang has attempted to show its zero tolerance approach to such activity by threatening to re-garrison abandoned guard posts near the demilitarized zone. On Tuesday, North Korea produced a visual display of its displeasure by blowing up a four-story building used as an inter-Korean liaison office.
A waning Moon? The crisis has damaged President Moon Jae-in, fresh from his party’s landslide victory in parliamentary elections amid global plaudits for his handling of South Korea’s coronavirus epidemic. A Gallup Korea poll released today showed Moon’s approval rating at 55 percent, its lowest level in almost three months.
Has South Korea made the right moves? As North Korea signaled its disapproval in increasingly aggressive statements, Moon’s government attempted to defuse the issue by banning defector organizations. Such actions have not stopped North Korea’s threats.
Writing in Foreign Policy on June 16, Doug Bandow argued that South Korea’s approach requires a rethink, as the current posture “sacrifices citizens’ basic rights and encourages North Korea to make additional demands.” By banning defector organizations “Seoul abandoned its leverage,” he wrote. “The North fears propaganda directed at its citizens. Instead of shutting down such activities, the South should encourage them.”
What We’re Following Today
Brazilian minister steps down. Brazilian Education Minister Abraham Weintraub—considered a loyal ally of President Jair Bolsonaro—resigned on Thursday following Weintraub’s appearance at a Sunday rally protesting against the country’s Supreme Court. Bolsonaro had issued a public scolding to Weintraub after he spoke at the rally, fueling speculation about his position and suggesting a more conciliatory approach from the president toward the court. Weintraub’s exit is one of many cabinet positions vacated in the past few months after the resignation of Justice Minister Sergio Moro as well as the departure of two health ministers.
China releases Indian soldiers after mountain brawl. Ten Indian soldiers have been released from Chinese custody after being captured during Monday’s deadly clash in the Galwan valley on the India-China border, an Indian newspaper has reported. Although Indian authorities had said that 20 of its forces had died in the fighting, they had not confirmed that any of their soldiers were missing. Both India and China will join Russia for trilateral talks next week in the latest attempt at cooling tensions.
France and Turkey spar over ship incident. Tensions between France and Turkey continued to rise after French Defense Minister Florence Parly said a Turkish ship refused to identify itself and its mission after an approach by a French vessel on a NATO mission to check on suspected weapons smuggling to Libya.
Turkish sailors donned bulletproof vests and took up positions behind light weaponry during the incident, according to Parly. “This act was extremely aggressive and cannot be one of an ally facing another ally who is doing its work under NATO command,” Parly said. Turkey called France’s claims “baseless.” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that NATO is investigating the incident “to bring full clarity into what happened.”
Belarus protests. Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Belarus after authorities detained Viktor Babariko, one of the main challengers to President Alexander Lukashenko in the country’s upcoming election. Babariko is accused of taking $430 million out of Belarus in a money-laundering operation. His campaign called the accusations an “absurdity” as well as a “violation of human rights” and promised to still field him in the August election.
As Vitali Shkliarov wrote in Foreign Policy on June 4, the coronavirus pandemic has given Belarusians a rare chance to voice dissent. “The ability of Belarusians to wear masks and gather in public, which was previously banned because the government didn’t want protesters to hide their faces, has given them the ability to be anonymous and engage in political discourse never before available to them without fear of reprisal for the first time ever,” Shkliarov wrote.
Keep an Eye On
China charges Canadians with espionage. Chinese prosecutors announced today that they have charged two Canadians in Chinese detention with espionage. Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor have been held by Chinese authorities since 2018 in what is seen as a reciprocal move by Beijing after the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, by Canadian police. Meng is currently under house arrest in Vancouver while fighting a Canadian court battle to halt her extradition to the United States.
Australia under cyberattack. A number of Australian political organizations and companies are being targeted by a “sophisticated state-based cyber actor,” according to Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Morrison did not name the country responsible but said the activity had been taking place “over many months.” Morrison said his government had raised the alarm in order to alert essential services in health and other sectors to “implement technical defences to thwart this malicious cyber activity.”
World refugee numbers rise. A new report by the United Nations refugee agency found that the number of refugees worldwide increased by 9 million in 2019, adding to a total of roughly 80 million people. Only 107,000 refugees were resettled in third countries, with Canada receiving the most with 31,100. The United States received the second highest number with 27,500 resettled in 2019.
Odds and Ends
A radical Russian cleric has occupied a convent near Yekaterinburg and media organizations report that armed guards are now protecting the premises. The priest, Father Sergii Romanov, had been banned from preaching by the Orthodox church in April after he gave sermons claiming the coronavirus did not exist and encouraged worshippers to ignore social distancing guidelines in order to gather for Easter celebrations. The Yekaterinburg diocese said that the convent’s superior has left the convent along with four other nuns. Police have entered the convent since Romanov took his stand but have not yet reported any violations according to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-19--Navy Upholds Ouster of Virus-Racked Carrier’s Captain

The U.S. Navy will not reinstate the former skipper of the USS Theodore Roosevelt , Capt .
Brett Crozier , who was fired in March after raising alarm with higher-ups about the coronavirus outbreak abroad the ship , the Navy ’ s top civilian and military official said on Friday .
The Navy will also not proceed with the promotion of Rear Adm. Stu Baker , the senior officer aboard the Roosevelt , to a two-star rank .
Adm. Bob Burke , the vice chief of naval operations , led the study .
Crozier will also not be eligible for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Burke , the strike group commander , faced “ unprecedented ” challenges in battling the virus aboard tight quarters of the carrier , Chief of Naval Operations Mike Gilday said that neither man did enough to fulfill his obligations to get sailors off the ship .
“ It is my belief that both Adm. Baker and Capt .
Crozier fell short of what we expect in command , ” Gilday said .
“ If Capt .
Crozier were still in command today , I would be relieving him.
” “ Both failed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ charge .
They were driven by the problem instead of driving decisions , ” he added , though Crozier ’ s initial removal from his post was not related to his ability to enforce social distancing guidelines .
The news marks a shift after an initial investigation led by Gilday recommended that Crozier be reinstated as the skipper of the ship .
The captain was originally fired in April by then-acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly , who said he had been blindsided by Crozier ’ s appeal to offload most of the ship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ San Francisco Chronicle .
But Gilday—who said Crozier did not leak his email to the press—owed the reversed recommendation to the narrow scope of the prior investigation , which he said was focused primarily on the fired skipper ’ s letter , not how the Roosevelt ’ s leaders handled the outbreak of the virus .
Asked why the initial probe was not wider , Navy leaders said the “ emotional ” nature of the case may have gotten in the way .
“ A rush to judgment perhaps became part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Braithwaite , who added that the White House was not consulted during the deeper review .
Modly himself resigned just days later after traveling to speak to the Roosevelt ’ s crew where the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier was docked in Guam , delivering a broadside railing against Crozier .
His successor , acting Navy Secretary James McPherson , then opted to extend the investigation , delaying Crozier ’ s return to command .
Braithwaite , President Donald Trump ’ s former ambassador to Norway , was confirmed as Navy secretary by the Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impressed by the slow egress off the ship [ and ] the lack of a plan to do so , ” Gilday said .
He said the skipper “ exercised questionable judgment ” by releasing his crew from quarantine too soon .
Crozier insisted that his crew get hotel rooms on the island , Gilday said , further slowing the process .
The arrival of the virus marked a major operational shift for the U.S. Navy , as the Pentagon canceled port visits for aircraft carriers , after crews likely brought the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Vietnam in March .
But the Navy does not have an understanding of who “ patient zero ” was , Gilday said .
The ship finally embarked in June after spending nearly three months in Guam to deal with the caseload of recovering sailors .
More than 25 percent of the Roosevelt ’ s crew eventually tested positive for COVID-19 , and one service member aboard the ship died from the disease .
A subsequent study found that 60 percent of sailors had antibodies for the virus , the spread of which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ships .
“ This study is in line with previous outbreaks on cruise ships which reported undetected transmission of COVID-19 due to mild and asymptomatic infection , ” the Navy reported in early June .
Crozier , who contracted COVID-19 while aboard the ship , was later moved to an administrative job in San Diego but allowed to retain his rank .
The decision is not likely to be popular among the crew of the Roosevelt , as Crozier received applause from his sailors when he departed the ship for the last time @ @ @

The U.S. Navy will not reinstate the former skipper of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, Capt. Brett Crozier, who was fired in March after raising alarm with higher-ups about the coronavirus outbreak abroad the ship, the Navy’s top civilian and military official said on Friday.
The U.S. Navy will not reinstate the former skipper of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, Capt. Brett Crozier, who was fired in March after raising alarm with higher-ups about the coronavirus outbreak abroad the ship, the Navy’s top civilian and military official said on Friday.
The Navy will also not proceed with the promotion of Rear Adm. Stu Baker, the senior officer aboard the Roosevelt, to a two-star rank. Adm. Bob Burke, the vice chief of naval operations, led the study. Crozier will also not be eligible for further command.
Acknowledging that Crozier and Burke, the strike group commander, faced “unprecedented” challenges in battling the virus aboard tight quarters of the carrier, Chief of Naval Operations Mike Gilday said that neither man did enough to fulfill his obligations to get sailors off the ship.
“It is my belief that both Adm. Baker and Capt. Crozier fell short of what we expect in command,” Gilday said. “If Capt. Crozier were still in command today, I would be relieving him.”
“Both failed to tackle the problem head on and take charge. They were driven by the problem instead of driving decisions,” he added, though Crozier’s initial removal from his post was not related to his ability to enforce social distancing guidelines.
The news marks a shift after an initial investigation led by Gilday recommended that Crozier be reinstated as the skipper of the ship. The captain was originally fired in April by then-acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly, who said he had been blindsided by Crozier’s appeal to offload most of the ship’s crew that leaked in the San Francisco Chronicle.
But Gilday—who said Crozier did not leak his email to the press—owed the reversed recommendation to the narrow scope of the prior investigation, which he said was focused primarily on the fired skipper’s letter, not how the Roosevelt’s leaders handled the outbreak of the virus.
Asked why the initial probe was not wider, Navy leaders said the “emotional” nature of the case may have gotten in the way. “A rush to judgment perhaps became part of the equation,” said Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite, who added that the White House was not consulted during the deeper review.
Modly himself resigned just days later after traveling to speak to the Roosevelt’s crew where the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier was docked in Guam, delivering a broadside railing against Crozier. His successor, acting Navy Secretary James McPherson, then opted to extend the investigation, delaying Crozier’s return to command. Braithwaite, President Donald Trump’s former ambassador to Norway, was confirmed as Navy secretary by the Senate in May.
Yet Gilday, who said that Crozier’s email was “unnecessary,” appeared to reach conclusions from the expanded investigation that mirrored some of what Modly said in firing Crozier in the first place. Modly insisted in April that he gave Crozier his direct phone number as the Navy brass arranged beds for the crew in Guam when the letter about the dire state of affairs aboard the ship was emailed out.
“I was not impressed by the slow egress off the ship [and] the lack of a plan to do so,” Gilday said. He said the skipper “exercised questionable judgment” by releasing his crew from quarantine too soon. Crozier insisted that his crew get hotel rooms on the island, Gilday said, further slowing the process.
In a statement Friday afternoon, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he thought the investigation was “ thorough and fair ” and supported the Navy’s findings.
The arrival of the virus marked a major operational shift for the U.S. Navy, as the Pentagon canceled port visits for aircraft carriers, after crews likely brought the virus aboard the ship during a port visit to Vietnam in March. But the Navy does not have an understanding of who “patient zero” was, Gilday said.
The ship finally embarked in June after spending nearly three months in Guam to deal with the caseload of recovering sailors. More than 25 percent of the Roosevelt’s crew eventually tested positive for COVID-19, and one service member aboard the ship died from the disease. A subsequent study found that 60 percent of sailors had antibodies for the virus, the spread of which prompted new social distancing rules aboard Navy ships.
“This study is in line with previous outbreaks on cruise ships which reported undetected transmission of COVID-19 due to mild and asymptomatic infection,” the Navy reported in early June.
Crozier, who contracted COVID-19 while aboard the ship, was later moved to an administrative job in San Diego but allowed to retain his rank. The decision is not likely to be popular among the crew of the Roosevelt, as Crozier received applause from his sailors when he departed the ship for the last time in April.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-19--For Brazil’s Poor, the Pandemic Is Far From Over

For Brazil ’ s Poor , the Pandemic Is Far From Over RIO DE JANEIRO—When Luiz Paulo Santos ’ s persistent cough grew deep and dry , his children begged him to see a doctor .
As the novel coronavirus ravaged Rio de Janeiro ’ s Complexo do Alemão area in April , the 57-year-old Uber driver was still taking passengers across the sprawling patchwork of favelas in Rio ’ s poor northern zone .
Some were heading to the hospital themselves , sickened by symptoms of COVID-19 .
The 16 critical care beds in the urgent care clinic serving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were all full when Santos sought help in late April .
Desperate , his family took him to another facility in Manguinhos , a nearby favela with a violent reputation .
There , his lungs failing , Santos waited in the reception area for two days before giving up and returning to his house in the Morro da Baiana favela .
“ He couldn ’ t breathe , he was getting worse there , and he was scared , ” his son Rogério Ferreira Santos recalled , noting his father was suspected to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pneumonia .
“ And they weren ’ t doing anything to help him .
So he left.
” Santos ’ s condition quickly deteriorated at home .
His children once again rushed him to the nearby emergency room just hours later as his breathing weakened .
With no available critical care beds or ventilators at the time , the doctors hooked him up to a nebulizer in a bid to ease his labored breathing .
There , Santos joined hundreds of others waiting for an intensive care unit bed across Rio de Janeiro @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his father had died the next day , April 24 , as he marked his 30th birthday with a homemade cake in Complexo do Alemão .
“ I just couldn ’ t stop crying , ” he said .
“ My dad didn ’ t even get to meet my son .
He was born just a week before he died.
” With nearby public cemeteries full , city authorities tried to take Santos ’ s body to a plot across the city .
Determined to bury their father in the neighborhood he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his children paid a private funeral agency 4,000 reals ( about $ 750 ) .
“ We had to sell some of his things to bury him .
And we ’ re still in debt to the funeral home , ” Rogério said .
“ But the important thing is that he ’ s here with us.
” Santos was one of the many Brazilians who have fallen victim to a pandemic that has placed crushing weight on public hospitals .
Brazil now has the world ’ s second-worst outbreak , with over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths according to a consortium of media outlets that began compiling daily data after the federal government stopped publishing it .
Hit by shortages of ICU beds and ventilators , hospitals have been overwhelmed by patients .
The health system collapsed in parts of the country in April and May , and some cities in the poorer north opened up mass graves to bury the dead .
“ Whoever has had to rely on public hospitals was damned—there ’ s no beds , there ’ s no one to care for you , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s what happened to my dad .
If it wasn ’ t for this , he would still be here with us.
” Meanwhile , the government response has been sluggish and chaotic .
The country has lost two health ministers since the start of the crisis , as Luiz Henrique Mandetta was fired in April and his successor , Nelson Teich , resigned just weeks into the job .
The post has now been formally vacant for over a month .
Both ministers appeared to clash with far-right President Jair Bolsonaro , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social distancing measures , and called on Brazilians to go back to work .
The controversial president has also accused states of inflating the coronavirus toll—despite a severe test shortage signaling the opposite .
A recent study estimated coronavirus cases may be about six times higher than the official count—meaning as many as 5.4 million Brazilians may be infected .
Bolsonaro also recently tried to halt the release of data showing total cases and deaths , although a Supreme Court ruling forced the government to resume publishing the numbers .
Last week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” hospitals and take photos proving there are vacant ICU beds—a call to action that some actually tried to carry out in Rio .
In a country plagued by deep inequality , the pandemic has hit poor communities the hardest .
In Rio , the virus has swept through favelas with lethal force , aided by a lack of running water , poor sanitation , and cramped housing .
Isolation has been impossible for many residents who work in the informal sector , cleaning homes or delivering food .
An analysis of official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s favelas are dying at a rate that ’ s three times higher than in Rio ’ s wealthy Leblon district .
Favela residents have reported being turned away from packed hospitals or discouraged from seeking medical attention .
Activists say that , at times , poor infrastructure bars ambulances from reaching these neglected neighborhoods .
Across Rio state , the number of people waiting for ICU beds swelled above 1,000 in May .
In Nova Iguaçu , a working-class area on the fringes of Rio , one resident said her 84-year-old @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after health authorities refused the family ’ s repeated pleas to hospitalize him .
“ They totally dismissed the possibility of taking him to the hospital , ” said the resident , her voice breaking .
“ They said it could be COVID but there was no space in the hospital and they couldn ’ t take him because he was elderly.
” A spokesperson for Rio de Janeiro ’ s Municipal Health Secretariat said the public health network is ready to treat anyone who seeks assistance in any public medical facility .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has added 1,252 hospital beds exclusively for COVID-19 patients since the beginning of the pandemic , with 248 of those being ICU beds .
In May , 526 beds were added , with 77 equipped to treat critical care patients .
The Nova Iguaçu resident , who asked to remain anonymous to protect her family ’ s privacy , also said authorities did not test her grandfather for COVID-19 following his death .
“ On the death certificate , they put the cause as respiratory failure , ” she said .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do a test , so that the number of cases doesn ’ t rise.
” City officials dismissed questions about this particular case but said “ serious cases of hospitalized patients and deaths suspected of being caused by coronavirus have been tested according to Ministry of Health recommendations.
” The city received 53,000 rapid tests from federal and state authorities , the spokesperson said .
The devastating toll of the virus—especially among the most vulnerable—has demonstrated that the public health system “ wasn ’ t able to prepare itself for this pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a coordinator with Redes da Maré , a local organization helping residents of Complexo da Maré cope with COVID-19 .
The organization counted 768 suspected cases and 94 deaths in Maré due to coronavirus up to June 8 .
Of those , only 241 cases were officially confirmed and 65 deaths were registered as coronavirus-related .
While mayors and governors across Brazil were quick to impose quarantine measures in a bid to counter the president ’ s denialist message , many have since caved into pressure to restart economic activity .
Health experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus could be curbed with a strict lockdown .
But , while mayors and governors across Brazil were quick to impose quarantine measures in a bid to counter the president ’ s denialist message , many have since caved into pressure to restart economic activity .
With an eye to municipal elections in October , few mayors have dared to impose strict lockdowns .
Instead , many are doing the opposite : Shopping malls , churches , bars , and gyms are already opening in cities like Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Rio and São Paulo in recent weeks—partly due to fewer people seeking treatment for light symptoms—but the public health systems in poorer northern states such as Amapá , Pernambuco , and Maranhão remain under strain .
The government has added 8,575 ICU beds to the public system across the country since April , the Ministry of Health said .
Rio de Janeiro state promised to open seven field hospitals by the end of April , although several are still under construction .
The projects have been marred by delays and corruption allegations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ facing impeachment proceedings partly due to charges of foul play in the bidding for field hospitals .
Authorities have rolled out measures specifically targeting favelas too .
A CT scanner was installed in Maré about two weeks ago , but Arouca says it is still not functioning .
There is also a bigger push to test residents in a bid to gauge how widespread infection is in the community .
But , according to Arouca , the city sent just 500 tests to Maré , which is made up of 16 favelas that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The actions have been superficial really .
The state has still not made any structural changes , ” she said .
The number of deaths continues to climb in Brazil , and health experts warn it could still be weeks away from its peak .
Now , as cities and states relax quarantine measures , the fear is that vulnerable people , who were already struggling to access emergency care or quarantine effectively , will be dealt another blow .
“ These residents are already at twofold risk due to their living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arouca said .
“ The fact that … the choice of the government is to relax measures will only add another layer of risk for people.
” Rio ’ s health secretariat said the decision to relax quarantine measures was based on technical studies “ focused mainly on the supply of beds in the city and the occupancy rate of these beds.
” It said it has observed the gradual decrease in the number of patients admitted with COVID-19 and in the deaths of patients from the virus .
“ Today , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ability to respond with the provision of beds exceeds the need for hospitalizations , ” a spokesperson said in a statement , noting that the occupancy rate for ICU beds is currently at 81 percent while hospital wards are 40 percent full .
With quarantine measures easing , the worry is that the public health system could once again collapse .
But health workers warn that the crisis is far from over .
Some hospitals—mainly those serving poorer areas—have been more overwhelmed than others and have yet to see patient numbers drop dramatically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of the pressure on the public health system , critical care units remain under pressure , said Gustavo Treistman , an emergency room doctor who works in a clinic in the Magalhães Bastos neighborhood in Rio ’ s west zone .
“ There are now hospital beds in the field hospitals , ” he said .
“ So for now , it has unburdened emergency clinics in a sense .
But there is still a lack of critical care beds , which remains the key problem.
” Fewer people circulating has meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitals some time .
But now , with quarantine measures easing , the worry is that the public health system could once again collapse .
“ With this premature reopening , we are truly worried that we ’ ll return to a situation where hospitals are packed and there are no hospital beds again , ” Treistman said .
“ And our concern is that it will now become even worse than it was before .
”

RIO DE JANEIRO—When Luiz Paulo Santos’s persistent cough grew deep and dry, his children begged him to see a doctor. As the novel coronavirus ravaged Rio de Janeiro’s Complexo do Alemão area in April, the 57-year-old Uber driver was still taking passengers across the sprawling patchwork of favelas in Rio’s poor northern zone. Some were heading to the hospital themselves, sickened by symptoms of COVID-19.
RIO DE JANEIRO—When Luiz Paulo Santos’s persistent cough grew deep and dry, his children begged him to see a doctor. As the novel coronavirus ravaged Rio de Janeiro’s Complexo do Alemão area in April, the 57-year-old Uber driver was still taking passengers across the sprawling patchwork of favelas in Rio’s poor northern zone. Some were heading to the hospital themselves, sickened by symptoms of COVID-19.
The 16 critical care beds in the urgent care clinic serving Complexo do Alemão’s 70,000 residents were all full when Santos sought help in late April. Desperate, his family took him to another facility in Manguinhos, a nearby favela with a violent reputation. There, his lungs failing, Santos waited in the reception area for two days before giving up and returning to his house in the Morro da Baiana favela.
Luiz Paulo Santos in December 2018.
“He couldn’t breathe, he was getting worse there, and he was scared,” his son Rogério Ferreira Santos recalled, noting his father was suspected to have COVID-19 and had a history of pneumonia. “And they weren’t doing anything to help him. So he left.”
Santos’s condition quickly deteriorated at home. His children once again rushed him to the nearby emergency room just hours later as his breathing weakened. With no available critical care beds or ventilators at the time, the doctors hooked him up to a nebulizer in a bid to ease his labored breathing. There, Santos joined hundreds of others waiting for an intensive care unit bed across Rio de Janeiro state.
Rogério got the news that his father had died the next day, April 24, as he marked his 30th birthday with a homemade cake in Complexo do Alemão. “I just couldn’t stop crying,” he said. “My dad didn’t even get to meet my son. He was born just a week before he died.”
With nearby public cemeteries full, city authorities tried to take Santos’s body to a plot across the city. Determined to bury their father in the neighborhood he called home for over three decades, his children paid a private funeral agency 4,000 reals (about $750). “We had to sell some of his things to bury him. And we’re still in debt to the funeral home,” Rogério said. “But the important thing is that he’s here with us.”
Santos was one of the many Brazilians who have fallen victim to a pandemic that has placed crushing weight on public hospitals. Brazil now has the world’s second-worst outbreak, with over 1 million cases and more than 48,000 deaths according to a consortium of media outlets that began compiling daily data after the federal government stopped publishing it. Hit by shortages of ICU beds and ventilators, hospitals have been overwhelmed by patients. The health system collapsed in parts of the country in April and May, and some cities in the poorer north opened up mass graves to bury the dead.
“Whoever has had to rely on public hospitals was damned—there’s no beds, there’s no one to care for you,” Rogério said. “It’s what happened to my dad. If it wasn’t for this, he would still be here with us.”
Meanwhile, the government response has been sluggish and chaotic. The country has lost two health ministers since the start of the crisis, as Luiz Henrique Mandetta was fired in April and his successor, Nelson Teich, resigned just weeks into the job. The post has now been formally vacant for over a month. Both ministers appeared to clash with far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, as he downplayed the virus, flouted social distancing measures, and called on Brazilians to go back to work.
The controversial president has also accused states of inflating the coronavirus toll—despite a severe test shortage signaling the opposite. A recent study estimated coronavirus cases may be about six times higher than the official count—meaning as many as 5.4 million Brazilians may be infected. Bolsonaro also recently tried to halt the release of data showing total cases and deaths, although a Supreme Court ruling forced the government to resume publishing the numbers. Last week, he urged his supporters to “invade” hospitals and take photos proving there are vacant ICU beds—a call to action that some actually tried to carry out in Rio.
In a country plagued by deep inequality, the pandemic has hit poor communities the hardest. In Rio, the virus has swept through favelas with lethal force, aided by a lack of running water, poor sanitation, and cramped housing. Isolation has been impossible for many residents who work in the informal sector, cleaning homes or delivering food. An analysis of official data showed confirmed COVID-19 patients in Maré’s favelas are dying at a rate that’s three times higher than in Rio’s wealthy Leblon district.
Favela residents have reported being turned away from packed hospitals or discouraged from seeking medical attention. Activists say that, at times, poor infrastructure bars ambulances from reaching these neglected neighborhoods. Across Rio state, the number of people waiting for ICU beds swelled above 1,000 in May.
In Nova Iguaçu, a working-class area on the fringes of Rio, one resident said her 84-year-old grandfather died at home last month, after health authorities refused the family’s repeated pleas to hospitalize him. “They totally dismissed the possibility of taking him to the hospital,” said the resident, her voice breaking. “They said it could be COVID but there was no space in the hospital and they couldn’t take him because he was elderly.”
A spokesperson for Rio de Janeiro’s Municipal Health Secretariat said the public health network is ready to treat anyone who seeks assistance in any public medical facility. The spokesperson noted that the municipal system has added 1,252 hospital beds exclusively for COVID-19 patients since the beginning of the pandemic, with 248 of those being ICU beds. In May, 526 beds were added, with 77 equipped to treat critical care patients.
The Nova Iguaçu resident, who asked to remain anonymous to protect her family’s privacy, also said authorities did not test her grandfather for COVID-19 following his death. “On the death certificate, they put the cause as respiratory failure,” she said. “It looked like they didn’t want to do a test, so that the number of cases doesn’t rise.”
City officials dismissed questions about this particular case but said “serious cases of hospitalized patients and deaths suspected of being caused by coronavirus have been tested according to Ministry of Health recommendations.” The city received 53,000 rapid tests from federal and state authorities, the spokesperson said.
The devastating toll of the virus—especially among the most vulnerable—has demonstrated that the public health system “wasn’t able to prepare itself for this pandemic,” said Luna Escorel Arouca, a coordinator with Redes da Maré, a local organization helping residents of Complexo da Maré cope with COVID-19. The organization counted 768 suspected cases and 94 deaths in Maré due to coronavirus up to June 8. Of those, only 241 cases were officially confirmed and 65 deaths were registered as coronavirus-related.
While mayors and governors across Brazil were quick to impose quarantine measures in a bid to counter the president’s denialist message, many have since caved into pressure to restart economic activity.
Health experts have argued the destructive impact of the virus could be curbed with a strict lockdown. But, while mayors and governors across Brazil were quick to impose quarantine measures in a bid to counter the president’s denialist message, many have since caved into pressure to restart economic activity. With an eye to municipal elections in October, few mayors have dared to impose strict lockdowns. Instead, many are doing the opposite: Shopping malls, churches, bars, and gyms are already opening in cities like Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
The pressure on hospitals has eased in Rio and São Paulo in recent weeks—partly due to fewer people seeking treatment for light symptoms—but the public health systems in poorer northern states such as Amapá, Pernambuco, and Maranhão remain under strain. The government has added 8,575 ICU beds to the public system across the country since April, the Ministry of Health said. Rio de Janeiro state promised to open seven field hospitals by the end of April, although several are still under construction. The projects have been marred by delays and corruption allegations, with Rio’s governor now facing impeachment proceedings partly due to charges of foul play in the bidding for field hospitals.
Authorities have rolled out measures specifically targeting favelas too. A CT scanner was installed in Maré about two weeks ago, but Arouca says it is still not functioning. There is also a bigger push to test residents in a bid to gauge how widespread infection is in the community. But, according to Arouca, the city sent just 500 tests to Maré, which is made up of 16 favelas that are home to nearly 130,000 people. “The actions have been superficial really. The state has still not made any structural changes,” she said.
The number of deaths continues to climb in Brazil, and health experts warn it could still be weeks away from its peak. Now, as cities and states relax quarantine measures, the fear is that vulnerable people, who were already struggling to access emergency care or quarantine effectively, will be dealt another blow.
“These residents are already at twofold risk due to their living conditions and their work conditions,” Arouca said. “The fact that … the choice of the government is to relax measures will only add another layer of risk for people.”
Rio’s health secretariat said the decision to relax quarantine measures was based on technical studies “focused mainly on the supply of beds in the city and the occupancy rate of these beds.” It said it has observed the gradual decrease in the number of patients admitted with COVID-19 and in the deaths of patients from the virus.
“Today, the [public health] network’s ability to respond with the provision of beds exceeds the need for hospitalizations,” a spokesperson said in a statement, noting that the occupancy rate for ICU beds is currently at 81 percent while hospital wards are 40 percent full.
With quarantine measures easing, the worry is that the public health system could once again collapse.
But health workers warn that the crisis is far from over. Some hospitals—mainly those serving poorer areas—have been more overwhelmed than others and have yet to see patient numbers drop dramatically. And while field hospitals have eased some of the pressure on the public health system, critical care units remain under pressure, said Gustavo Treistman, an emergency room doctor who works in a clinic in the Magalhães Bastos neighborhood in Rio’s west zone.
“There are now hospital beds in the field hospitals,” he said. “So for now, it has unburdened emergency clinics in a sense. But there is still a lack of critical care beds, which remains the key problem.”
Fewer people circulating has meant less chance of mass contagion, buying hospitals some time. But now, with quarantine measures easing, the worry is that the public health system could once again collapse.
“With this premature reopening, we are truly worried that we’ll return to a situation where hospitals are packed and there are no hospital beds again,” Treistman said. “And our concern is that it will now become even worse than it was before.”