foreignpolicy--2020-02-07--Tourists Dwindle as Thailand Readies for Coronavirus Threat

BANGKOK—As more Chinese cities lock down their populations out of fear of the coronavirus , China ’ s neighbors are stirring uneasily .
One of the most fraught is Thailand , which sees 11 million Chinese travelers a year and has been described by population mappers as one of the countries most at risk .
The reactions have ranged from panic to preparation .
On Monday , police showed up at a Waraphat Thapiang ’ s khaosoi restaurant in Mae On district east of Chiang Mai .
“ We have to apologize for all Chainese [ sic ] and foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cardboard sign outside the restaurant read .
“ We couldn ’ t services to you because of coronavirus problem.
” The owner removed the sign at police instruction and replaced it with one in Chinese saying the restaurant was out of food .
At the other end of the country , on Thailand ’ s biggest and most famous island , Vachira Phuket Hospital set up a mobile respiratory disease screening point to cope with the more than 100 people a day who for the past week had come to its doors concerned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital , Thailand ’ s Anti-Fake News Center , a government-run program largely used for censorship purposes , arrested two people in Bangkok , one for posting a video claiming a drunk man passed out at Suvarnabhumi Airport had died of the virus .
Both face five years in prison if convicted .
The first Thai person infected with the coronavirus was detected on Jan. 22 ; the next day , China canceled outbound flights from Wuhan , where the virus originated , and then later all those from Hubei province .
Thailand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its most important overseas visitors .
With more than two dozen cases of coronavirus and the first recorded person-to-person transmission outside of China , the authorities find themselves rebutting wild claims almost daily .
Just four days after an announcement that China would halt overseas group tours , the Anti-Fake News Center reviewed nearly 7,600 posts reported as “ fake news.
” Even Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha weighed in , warning a group of reporters against spreading panic : “ You can burn anything you like , but do not burn your own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news .
I am not quarreling with you , but I must warn you.
” But on the ground , the response is often more staid : face masks on the metro line ; signs of support for the people of Wuhan ; and bottles of hand sanitizer inside mall entrances .
Beyond the internet trolls mining for clicks and misinterpreted reports , some in the government made early calls to take harsher measures against Chinese visitors .
Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul hoped to scrap the visa-on-arrival program for Chinese travelers out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ altogether , later backtracking .
“ This is a delicate issue for Thailand , which requires input from every agency .
We should not act like we ’ re eager to cut off our close friends just because they are falling ill , ” Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said .
Thailand is in a unique position in the Mekong region .
Though it ’ s not as combative on China policy as Vietnam , unlike Cambodia and Laos , Thailand is not completely in thrall to China .
Ties with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in recent years after the Thai junta moved closer to Beijing .
Economic issues are also at stake .
A week after the Lunar New Year holiday ended , more than 300 buses normally ferrying Chinese travelers around the island of Phuket sat idle .
“ With no [ Chinese ] tour groups , we have no jobs and no money , ” a tour bus operator told the Bangkok Post .
“ As the only real media agency on the island , we have been covering the coronavirus saga since the outset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ The drop-off is clearly evident as the roads , tourist attractions , and retail outlets are much quieter than usual .
… I was personally at Central Festival Mall yesterday , usually teeming with Chinese shoppers , and there were no more than a handful present.
” Phuket finds itself particularly vulnerable to changes in the tourism landscape .
Kongsak Khoopongsakorn , the president of the Thai Hotels Association ’ s southern chapter , confirmed that 15 of the 100 member hotels had suffered 100 percent cancellations of Chinese group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so-called “ free independent travelers ” from China was also falling dramatically , Tirebuck said .
The Phuket News reported on Feb. 3 that Phuket Gov .
Phakaphong Tavipatana requested 20 billion baht ( $ 640 million ) in assistance to cover the potential losses from the fallout of the coronavirus , including loans to support tourism with 2 percent interest—the same rate as the soft loans provided after the 2004 tsunami .
Phuket had already seen a drop in numbers after the tragic boat accident that took 47 Chinese lives in July @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strain on the island ’ s need for Chinese travelers .
Some 11 million Chinese visited Thailand in 2019 , 28 percent of all overseas visitors , and due to the coronavirus , that number is expected to fall to 9 million this year , according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand .
That may well be an underestimate if the viral panic lasts beyond March .
The drop in travel from China could result in 50 billion baht ( $ 1.6 billion ) of lost tourism revenue , the Tourism and Sports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tamajai , the director of Rangsit University ’ s Economic and Business Research Center for Reform , has warned that it ’ s not just the tourism sector that will see a hit from the coronavirus but also agriculture , which Anusorn predicts will drop 1-2 percent .
With Thailand ’ s key index down 100 points and the baht , the strongest currency in the region against the dollar , hitting a seven-month low , all eyes are north to see how the virus will affect trade .
The agricultural sector—and in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seriously impact Thailand ’ s trade in 2020 .
Just off Sukhumvit Road in downtown Bangkok , signs of support for the people of Wuhan read : “ Our Hearts to Wuhan.
” Thailand ’ s response garnered praise from Chinese state media personalities , and even King Maha Vajiralongkorn sent out a heartfelt message of support .
That said , some have seized on the virus as an opportunity for anti-Chinese and anti-foreigner sentiment .
Most recently , the Thai public health minister , who earlier took aim at Chinese travelers ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for not wearing face masks , saying , “ Ai farangs [ white foreigners ] … are not wearing masks .
… We ’ re handing them out , and they still refuse .
They should be kicked out of Thailand !
” He continued : “ The Chinese , the Asians—they are all taking [ masks ] , but those Europeans … that ’ s unbelievable.
” “ It is difficult to gauge whether true anti-Chinese sentiment exists here , as the tourism industry , and thus the livelihood of so many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese visitors , so it becomes a kind of Catch-22 scenario with many remaining tight-lipped as to their true feelings , ” said Tirebuck , adding that many people he has spoken to are , however , concerned about Phuket and Thailand prioritizing the economy over its citizens ’ health .
Thailand , which has an extremely developed medical infrastructure , has also been part of the battle for answers to the virus .
Two doctors out of Rajavithi Hospital , just around the corner from Thailand ’ s Victory Monument , have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with antivirals common for the treatment of HIV treated a 70-year-old woman in 48 hours .
Though judging the efficacy of the cocktail is premature in the extreme , future patients in Thailand will be treated with this flu and HIV drug combination , Kriangska Atipornwanich , a lung specialist at Rajavithi , told the press , while stressing , “ This is not the cure .
”

BANGKOK—As more Chinese cities lock down their populations out of fear of the coronavirus, China’s neighbors are stirring uneasily. One of the most fraught is Thailand, which sees 11 million Chinese travelers a year and has been described by population mappers as one of the countries most at risk. The reactions have ranged from panic to preparation.
BANGKOK—As more Chinese cities lock down their populations out of fear of the coronavirus, China’s neighbors are stirring uneasily. One of the most fraught is Thailand, which sees 11 million Chinese travelers a year and has been described by population mappers as one of the countries most at risk. The reactions have ranged from panic to preparation.
On Monday, police showed up at a Waraphat Thapiang’s khaosoi restaurant in Mae On district east of Chiang Mai. “We have to apologize for all Chainese [sic] and foreign consumer at the moment,” a cardboard sign outside the restaurant read. “We couldn’t services to you because of coronavirus problem.” The owner removed the sign at police instruction and replaced it with one in Chinese saying the restaurant was out of food.
At the other end of the country, on Thailand’s biggest and most famous island, Vachira Phuket Hospital set up a mobile respiratory disease screening point to cope with the more than 100 people a day who for the past week had come to its doors concerned they were showing symptoms.
In the capital, Thailand’s Anti-Fake News Center, a government-run program largely used for censorship purposes, arrested two people in Bangkok, one for posting a video claiming a drunk man passed out at Suvarnabhumi Airport had died of the virus. Both face five years in prison if convicted.
The first Thai person infected with the coronavirus was detected on Jan. 22; the next day, China canceled outbound flights from Wuhan, where the virus originated, and then later all those from Hubei province. Thailand has been managing a balancing act with its most important overseas visitors.
With more than two dozen cases of coronavirus and the first recorded person-to-person transmission outside of China, the authorities find themselves rebutting wild claims almost daily. Just four days after an announcement that China would halt overseas group tours, the Anti-Fake News Center reviewed nearly 7,600 posts reported as “fake news.”
Even Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha weighed in, warning a group of reporters against spreading panic: “You can burn anything you like, but do not burn your own country—burning it with distortion, with fake news. I am not quarreling with you, but I must warn you.”
But on the ground, the response is often more staid: face masks on the metro line; signs of support for the people of Wuhan; and bottles of hand sanitizer inside mall entrances.
Beyond the internet trolls mining for clicks and misinterpreted reports, some in the government made early calls to take harsher measures against Chinese visitors. Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul hoped to scrap the visa-on-arrival program for Chinese travelers out of Hubei province and ban Chinese flights altogether, later backtracking.
“This is a delicate issue for Thailand, which requires input from every agency. We should not act like we’re eager to cut off our close friends just because they are falling ill,” Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said.
Thailand is in a unique position in the Mekong region. Though it’s not as combative on China policy as Vietnam, unlike Cambodia and Laos, Thailand is not completely in thrall to China. Ties with the United States remain strong, though weakened in recent years after the Thai junta moved closer to Beijing.
Economic issues are also at stake. A week after the Lunar New Year holiday ended, more than 300 buses normally ferrying Chinese travelers around the island of Phuket sat idle. “With no [Chinese] tour groups, we have no jobs and no money,” a tour bus operator told the Bangkok Post.
“As the only real media agency on the island, we have been covering the coronavirus saga since the outset,” Phuket News editor Ben Tirebuck said. “The drop-off is clearly evident as the roads, tourist attractions, and retail outlets are much quieter than usual. … I was personally at Central Festival Mall yesterday, usually teeming with Chinese shoppers, and there were no more than a handful present.”
Phuket finds itself particularly vulnerable to changes in the tourism landscape. Kongsak Khoopongsakorn, the president of the Thai Hotels Association’s southern chapter, confirmed that 15 of the 100 member hotels had suffered 100 percent cancellations of Chinese group tour bookings. And the number of so-called “free independent travelers” from China was also falling dramatically, Tirebuck said.
The Phuket News reported on Feb. 3 that Phuket Gov. Phakaphong Tavipatana requested 20 billion baht ($640 million) in assistance to cover the potential losses from the fallout of the coronavirus, including loans to support tourism with 2 percent interest—the same rate as the soft loans provided after the 2004 tsunami.
Phuket had already seen a drop in numbers after the tragic boat accident that took 47 Chinese lives in July 2018. The coronavirus puts a further strain on the island’s need for Chinese travelers. Some 11 million Chinese visited Thailand in 2019, 28 percent of all overseas visitors, and due to the coronavirus, that number is expected to fall to 9 million this year, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand. That may well be an underestimate if the viral panic lasts beyond March. The drop in travel from China could result in 50 billion baht ($1.6 billion) of lost tourism revenue, the Tourism and Sports Ministry estimated late last month.
Anusorn Tamajai, the director of Rangsit University’s Economic and Business Research Center for Reform, has warned that it’s not just the tourism sector that will see a hit from the coronavirus but also agriculture, which Anusorn predicts will drop 1-2 percent. With Thailand’s key index down 100 points and the baht, the strongest currency in the region against the dollar, hitting a seven-month low, all eyes are north to see how the virus will affect trade. The agricultural sector—and in particular the import of durian into China—could seriously impact Thailand’s trade in 2020.
Just off Sukhumvit Road in downtown Bangkok, signs of support for the people of Wuhan read: “Our Hearts to Wuhan.” Thailand’s response garnered praise from Chinese state media personalities, and even King Maha Vajiralongkorn sent out a heartfelt message of support.
That said, some have seized on the virus as an opportunity for anti-Chinese and anti-foreigner sentiment. Most recently, the Thai public health minister, who earlier took aim at Chinese travelers’ flights and visas, chided white foreigners for not wearing face masks, saying, “Ai farangs [white foreigners] … are not wearing masks. … We’re handing them out, and they still refuse. They should be kicked out of Thailand!” He continued: “The Chinese, the Asians—they are all taking [masks], but those Europeans … that’s unbelievable.”
“It is difficult to gauge whether true anti-Chinese sentiment exists here, as the tourism industry, and thus the livelihood of so many locals, has become so dependent on Chinese visitors, so it becomes a kind of Catch-22 scenario with many remaining tight-lipped as to their true feelings,” said Tirebuck, adding that many people he has spoken to are, however, concerned about Phuket and Thailand prioritizing the economy over its citizens’ health.
Thailand, which has an extremely developed medical infrastructure, has also been part of the battle for answers to the virus. Two doctors out of Rajavithi Hospital, just around the corner from Thailand’s Victory Monument, have reported that the flu drug oseltamivir combined with antivirals common for the treatment of HIV treated a 70-year-old woman in 48 hours.
Though judging the efficacy of the cocktail is premature in the extreme, future patients in Thailand will be treated with this flu and HIV drug combination, Kriangska Atipornwanich, a lung specialist at Rajavithi, told the press, while stressing, “This is not the cure.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-07--State Stonewalls Congress on Embassy Oversight

Two top lawmakers said the U.S. State Department is blocking their efforts to investigate allegations of management and ethics issues at one of the United States ’ largest and most important embassies in Africa , according to a letter obtained by Foreign Policy .
Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel and Republican Rep. Michael McCaul , the chairman and ranking member , respectively , of the House Foreign Affairs Committee , wrote a letter to a senior State Department official raising concerns about the U.S. Embassy in South Africa .
For nearly three months , the State Department responded to their requests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ practices ” at the embassy with “ incomplete ” information that “ failed to address many aspects of our queries , ” the letter said .
The lawmakers ’ concerns center on disputed allegations of whether President Donald Trump ’ s ambassador to South Africa , Lana Marks , sought to give her son heightened job responsibilities at the embassy and had the top career diplomat at the embassy , Deputy Chief of Mission David Young , removed from his post , as Foreign Policy previously reported .
A senior U.S. Embassy official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give her son a senior role in the embassy “ totally false ” and separate from Young ’ s departure .
Marks is a successful fashion designer with no prior diplomatic experience who has previously served on the Harvard Kennedy School of Government ’ s Women ’ s Leadership Board and as a lecturer at Georgetown University ’ s Women ’ s Leadership Initiative .
Her ties to Trump come from her membership of the president ’ s private Mar-a-Lago club .
Both Democratic and Republican presidents have made a practice of tapping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prior government experience to be ambassadors , but Trump has appointed a higher percentage of political connections than most presidents .
Multiple U.S. officials told Foreign Policy that the U.S. diplomatic mission in South Africa , including the embassy and three consulates , is suffering from morale and management issues .
Some attribute the blame to the new ambassador , although an internal State Department watchdog report recorded allegations of bullying and mismanagement months before Marks ever arrived at the embassy .
The letter sheds light on a growing trend of senior career @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Trump ’ s politically appointed ambassadors amid tensions and mistrust between administration leaders and career civil servants .
Trump ’ s envoys in Canada , France , Iceland , Romania , and the United Kingdom have all removed their deputy chiefs of mission—a position that goes to experienced senior foreign service officers—early .
It also reflects the souring relationship between the State Department and lawmakers , as the State Department regularly spurns requests for documents , meetings , and briefings on a variety of issues for lawmakers overseeing the department .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for comment .
The letter provides a detailed timeline on how House Foreign Affairs Committee staff repeatedly , and often unsuccessfully , pressed the State Department for further information on the embassy .
The department took weeks to respond in some cases , and it gave only partial answers , according to Engel and McCaul in the letter to the department ’ s third-ranking official , Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale .
“ On January 24 , the Department provided a response to Committee questions—some of which had been outstanding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incomplete and failed to address many aspects of our queries , ” they wrote .
The lawmakers said they haven ’ t received a response to repeated requests for State Department officials to brief them on ethics and management issues at the embassy .
They gave the State Department a deadline of Feb. 12 to find a date for briefings with former embassy officials and other State Department officials looking into the embassy ’ s management and ethics issues .
One congressional aide , speaking on condition of anonymity , said they wouldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blew past the deadline without responding .
In recent interviews , Marks has touted her background as a successful fashion designer with no government experience as an asset , not a hindrance .
She has said she is regularly working long hours at the embassy since arriving at the post several months ago , prioritizing boosting trade ties between South Africa and the United States while in office .
In a statement to Foreign Policy , Marks said her deputy chief of mission had a “ quite different ” management style from hers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take a new position .
She called him a “ tremendously capable diplomat ” and said , “ I only wish him the very best in the future.
” Ambassadors have full authority to remove their deputy chiefs of mission , although current and former diplomats say it is happening with increasing frequency in the Trump administration .

Two top lawmakers said the U.S. State Department is blocking their efforts to investigate allegations of management and ethics issues at one of the United States’ largest and most important embassies in Africa, according to a letter obtained by Foreign Policy .
Two top lawmakers said the U.S. State Department is blocking their efforts to investigate allegations of management and ethics issues at one of the United States’ largest and most important embassies in Africa, according to a letter obtained by Foreign Policy.
Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel and Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, the chairman and ranking member, respectively, of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote a letter to a senior State Department official raising concerns about the U.S. Embassy in South Africa. For nearly three months, the State Department responded to their requests for information on “management and ethics practices” at the embassy with “incomplete” information that “failed to address many aspects of our queries,” the letter said.
The lawmakers’ concerns center on disputed allegations of whether President Donald Trump’s ambassador to South Africa, Lana Marks, sought to give her son heightened job responsibilities at the embassy and had the top career diplomat at the embassy, Deputy Chief of Mission David Young, removed from his post, as Foreign Policy previously reported. A senior U.S. Embassy official called the allegations that she tried to give her son a senior role in the embassy “totally false” and separate from Young’s departure.
Marks is a successful fashion designer with no prior diplomatic experience who has previously served on the Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Women’s Leadership Board and as a lecturer at Georgetown University’s Women’s Leadership Initiative. Her ties to Trump come from her membership of the president’s private Mar-a-Lago club.
Both Democratic and Republican presidents have made a practice of tapping political associates or deep-pocketed campaign donors without prior government experience to be ambassadors, but Trump has appointed a higher percentage of political connections than most presidents.
Multiple U.S. officials told Foreign Policy that the U.S. diplomatic mission in South Africa, including the embassy and three consulates, is suffering from morale and management issues. Some attribute the blame to the new ambassador, although an internal State Department watchdog report recorded allegations of bullying and mismanagement months before Marks ever arrived at the embassy.
The letter sheds light on a growing trend of senior career diplomats at U.S. embassies abroad being removed by Trump’s politically appointed ambassadors amid tensions and mistrust between administration leaders and career civil servants. Trump’s envoys in Canada, France, Iceland, Romania, and the United Kingdom have all removed their deputy chiefs of mission—a position that goes to experienced senior foreign service officers—early.
It also reflects the souring relationship between the State Department and lawmakers, as the State Department regularly spurns requests for documents, meetings, and briefings on a variety of issues for lawmakers overseeing the department.
The State Department did not respond to requests for comment.
Read the full letter here:
The letter provides a detailed timeline on how House Foreign Affairs Committee staff repeatedly, and often unsuccessfully, pressed the State Department for further information on the embassy. The department took weeks to respond in some cases, and it gave only partial answers, according to Engel and McCaul in the letter to the department’s third-ranking official, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale.
“On January 24, the Department provided a response to Committee questions—some of which had been outstanding for more than six weeks—but it was incomplete and failed to address many aspects of our queries,” they wrote.
The lawmakers said they haven’t received a response to repeated requests for State Department officials to brief them on ethics and management issues at the embassy. They gave the State Department a deadline of Feb. 12 to find a date for briefings with former embassy officials and other State Department officials looking into the embassy’s management and ethics issues. One congressional aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they wouldn’t be surprised if the department blew past the deadline without responding.
In recent interviews, Marks has touted her background as a successful fashion designer with no government experience as an asset, not a hindrance. She has said she is regularly working long hours at the embassy since arriving at the post several months ago, prioritizing boosting trade ties between South Africa and the United States while in office.
In a statement to Foreign Policy, Marks said her deputy chief of mission had a “quite different” management style from hers and she felt it appropriate for him to take a new position. She called him a “tremendously capable diplomat” and said, “I only wish him the very best in the future.”
Ambassadors have full authority to remove their deputy chiefs of mission, although current and former diplomats say it is happening with increasing frequency in the Trump administration.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-07--Behold Germany’s Post-Merkel Future and Despair

There ’ s no elegant way to explain recent events in the East German state of Thuringia—no way to avoid getting mired in the details of party politics , coalition-building , and constitutionalism .
On Feb. 5 , Thomas Kemmerich of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party ( FDP ) was officially appointed to the position of Thuringia ’ s minister president .
This came as an utter surprise to most observers , because his party had only squeaked by the 5 percent threshold in the recent state election .
The parliamentary math seemed obviously stacked against him .
That was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ AfD ) party threw its support behind him—and Kemmerich became the first postwar German politician to assume high-ranking office with the electoral support of the far-right .
Though Kemmerich resigned shortly thereafter amid widespread outrage , Germany remains shocked by the electoral maneuvering that allowed him to be appointed to the position in the first place .
That maneuvering has been encapsulated by a widely circulated photo of Kemmerich shaking hands on the floor of parliament with Björn Höcke , the party ’ s local leader and the leader of what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most radical splinter group within the national party .
Yet the most consequential actor in this drama was offstage : The AfD would not have been in such a position without the active cooperation of the center-right Christian Democratic Union ( CDU ) , which voted to elevate Kemmerich in tandem with the far-right .
It may seem a surprise that the party so widely identified with Chancellor Angela Merkel ’ s moderate politics would have colluded in this way .
But such perversity is the predictable product of the CDU ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reign .
It was only a matter of time before her party , and with it the country , tripped into the ideological void at the heart of the chancellor ’ s leadership .
The recent election in Thuringia mostly served to highlight that Germany ’ s traditional main parties—the Volksparteien—are no longer the safest bet for those who seek to oppose the rise of the far-right .
In the state-level vote this past October , the CDU lost around 10 percent of its votes from the last election in 2014 , bringing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote , while the center-left Social Democratic Party ( SPD ) dropped from 12 percent of the vote in 2014 to 8 percent in 2019 .
Meanwhile , Bodo Ramelow of the leftist Die Linke ( “ The Left ” ) party , who had led a coalition government with the SPD and Greens in the state since 2014 , saw a slight increase in his party ’ s support .
Nevertheless , as a result of the SPD ’ s losses , Ramelow ’ s coalition lost its fragile majority , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mainstream democratic parties—until this week , when Kemmerich and the CDU captured votes well beyond the democratic mainstream .
It remains unclear the degree to which the AfD had an agreement with the other two parties in advance .
Outrage was immediate—and univocal .
Across the political spectrum , journalists and politicians complained that the “ dam had burst ” and that Thuringia had legitimated using far-right votes to gain electoral power .
Kemmerich ’ s resignation came within a day , as Merkel and Christian Lindner , the national leader of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refute allegations that they ’ d plotted the coup with the AfD .
Meanwhile , historians rushed to point to Thuringia ’ s important role in the Nazis ’ initial power grab of 1930 .
In a sense , Germany ’ s reaction is comforting .
It ’ s certainly better that such a vote—in which a democratic election was decided by a party with only a tenuous adherence to democracy—not be allowed to stand .
At the same time , however , the response illustrates the country ’ s quagmire .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Thuringia , the CDU opposes new elections , presumably because it is afraid of bleeding even more votes to the AfD .
Yet , it also still refuses to form a coalition with Die Linke , arguing that it has to hold extremism on both sides of the aisle at bay .
This anxiety might be understandable if Die Linke were an untested commodity , and if Ramelow were a firebrand preaching radical redistribution and advocating for reeducation .
Yet Ramelow ’ s five years in power were marked by a pragmatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was widely liked by his constituents .
The major reforms that he enacted—more money for schools , free day care starting at age 1 , and support for ecological programs—were similar to the programs enacted by centrist-led coalitions elsewhere in Germany .
Ramelow announced his willingness to work with local CDU leader Mike Mohring and had good relationships with CDU leaders in cities and towns throughout Thuringia .
Even conservative media such as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung largely see Ramelow as a reasonable figure who is capable of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nationally , Die Linke has embraced more radical proposals .
Most notably , the party has supported a popular initiative in Berlin that would expropriate property that belongs to the city ’ s largest landlords .
But for the most part Die Linke advocates not for radical new measures but for the reinstatement of protections that were largely won by the SPD in the 19th century—e.g.
, the reinstatement of a more generous social welfare system , an updated trade union system , and a reversal of the waves of privatization that rocked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
AfD politicians , in contrast , have suggested shooting Africans “ on the spot , ” suggested that there were now enough foreigners in Germany that “ a Holocaust would be worthwhile again , ” and said that the systematic murder of European Jews was like a little “ bird shit ” in the glorious history of Germany .
There are good reasons for Germans to be wary of left-wing extremism ; in Thuringia , especially , memories of the Stasi are still fresh .
Like other left-wing leaders , Ramelow should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yet to claim that the AfD and Die Linke are in any sense comparable absent such evidence is itself a radical position—one that can only be held by those who are clinging desperately to a rapidly disintegrating political consensus .
Such a position not only endangers what had been a successful government for the 2.15 million inhabitants of Thuringia ; it also necessarily fuels the AfD .
It legitimates its positions by making them seem no more radical than those proposed by Die Linke .
What ’ s more , it creates the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the radical right to claim that centrist parties and the mainstream media peddle misinformation ; if the CDU were now to collaborate with Die Linke in Thuringia , the AfD would be certain to point out that CDU leaders had recently branded Ramelow an extremist .
They can already point toward panicked Anglophone coverage in the New York Times , the BBC , and the Wall Street Journal about Die Linke ’ s electoral success and ask why there should be outrage when they help keep the left from power .
Germany ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ substantially in the near future ; as Merkel ’ s final term draws to an end and her party continues to flounder , the direction of the country seems up for grabs .
It seems increasingly likely that centrist leaders will be forced to turn either to the right or to the left for support in the near future .
As that moment draws closer , it ’ s worth insisting on rigor and accuracy .
Every time that the CDU called Ramelow an extremist , it lent a little support to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abroad who decided that the AfD ’ s second-place finish was more important than Ramelow ’ s victory took a little wind out of the sails of an anti-fascist coalition and put it firmly behind Höcke and his racialized fear-mongering .

There’s no elegant way to explain recent events in the East German state of Thuringia—no way to avoid getting mired in the details of party politics, coalition-building, and constitutionalism. On Feb. 5, Thomas Kemmerich of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was officially appointed to the position of Thuringia’s minister president. This came as an utter surprise to most observers, because his party had only squeaked by the 5 percent threshold in the recent state election. The parliamentary math seemed obviously stacked against him. That was before the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party threw its support behind him—and Kemmerich became the first postwar German politician to assume high-ranking office with the electoral support of the far-right.
There’s no elegant way to explain recent events in the East German state of Thuringia—no way to avoid getting mired in the details of party politics, coalition-building, and constitutionalism. On Feb. 5, Thomas Kemmerich of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was officially appointed to the position of Thuringia’s minister president. This came as an utter surprise to most observers, because his party had only squeaked by the 5 percent threshold in the recent state election. The parliamentary math seemed obviously stacked against him. That was before the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party threw its support behind him—and Kemmerich became the first postwar German politician to assume high-ranking office with the electoral support of the far-right.
Though Kemmerich resigned shortly thereafter amid widespread outrage, Germany remains shocked by the electoral maneuvering that allowed him to be appointed to the position in the first place. That maneuvering has been encapsulated by a widely circulated photo of Kemmerich shaking hands on the floor of parliament with Björn Höcke, the party’s local leader and the leader of what’s known as “The Wing,” the most radical splinter group within the national party.
Yet the most consequential actor in this drama was offstage: The AfD would not have been in such a position without the active cooperation of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which voted to elevate Kemmerich in tandem with the far-right. It may seem a surprise that the party so widely identified with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s moderate politics would have colluded in this way. But such perversity is the predictable product of the CDU’s pathological centrism under Merkel’s reign. It was only a matter of time before her party, and with it the country, tripped into the ideological void at the heart of the chancellor’s leadership.
The recent election in Thuringia mostly served to highlight that Germany’s traditional main parties—the Volksparteien—are no longer the safest bet for those who seek to oppose the rise of the far-right. In the state-level vote this past October, the CDU lost around 10 percent of its votes from the last election in 2014, bringing its total to 22 percent of the vote, while the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) dropped from 12 percent of the vote in 2014 to 8 percent in 2019.
Meanwhile, Bodo Ramelow of the leftist Die Linke (“The Left”) party, who had led a coalition government with the SPD and Greens in the state since 2014, saw a slight increase in his party’s support. Nevertheless, as a result of the SPD’s losses, Ramelow’s coalition lost its fragile majority, and the result was a seeming stalemate among the mainstream democratic parties—until this week, when Kemmerich and the CDU captured votes well beyond the democratic mainstream. It remains unclear the degree to which the AfD had an agreement with the other two parties in advance.
Outrage was immediate—and univocal. Across the political spectrum, journalists and politicians complained that the “dam had burst” and that Thuringia had legitimated using far-right votes to gain electoral power. Kemmerich’s resignation came within a day, as Merkel and Christian Lindner, the national leader of the already embattled FDP, scrambled to refute allegations that they’d plotted the coup with the AfD. Meanwhile, historians rushed to point to Thuringia’s important role in the Nazis’ initial power grab of 1930.
In a sense, Germany’s reaction is comforting. It’s certainly better that such a vote—in which a democratic election was decided by a party with only a tenuous adherence to democracy—not be allowed to stand. At the same time, however, the response illustrates the country’s quagmire. While the FDP has called for new elections in Thuringia, the CDU opposes new elections, presumably because it is afraid of bleeding even more votes to the AfD. Yet, it also still refuses to form a coalition with Die Linke, arguing that it has to hold extremism on both sides of the aisle at bay.
This anxiety might be understandable if Die Linke were an untested commodity, and if Ramelow were a firebrand preaching radical redistribution and advocating for reeducation. Yet Ramelow’s five years in power were marked by a pragmatic commitment to good governance, and he was widely liked by his constituents. The major reforms that he enacted—more money for schools, free day care starting at age 1, and support for ecological programs—were similar to the programs enacted by centrist-led coalitions elsewhere in Germany. Ramelow announced his willingness to work with local CDU leader Mike Mohring and had good relationships with CDU leaders in cities and towns throughout Thuringia. Even conservative media such as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung largely see Ramelow as a reasonable figure who is capable of compromise and led an effective government.
Nationally, Die Linke has embraced more radical proposals. Most notably, the party has supported a popular initiative in Berlin that would expropriate property that belongs to the city’s largest landlords. But for the most part Die Linke advocates not for radical new measures but for the reinstatement of protections that were largely won by the SPD in the 19th century—e.g., the reinstatement of a more generous social welfare system, an updated trade union system, and a reversal of the waves of privatization that rocked Germany in the 1990s and early 2000s. AfD politicians, in contrast, have suggested shooting Africans “on the spot,” suggested that there were now enough foreigners in Germany that “a Holocaust would be worthwhile again,” and said that the systematic murder of European Jews was like a little “bird shit” in the glorious history of Germany.
There are good reasons for Germans to be wary of left-wing extremism; in Thuringia, especially, memories of the Stasi are still fresh. Like other left-wing leaders, Ramelow should be observed closely for totalitarian tendencies. Yet to claim that the AfD and Die Linke are in any sense comparable absent such evidence is itself a radical position—one that can only be held by those who are clinging desperately to a rapidly disintegrating political consensus. Such a position not only endangers what had been a successful government for the 2.15 million inhabitants of Thuringia; it also necessarily fuels the AfD. It legitimates its positions by making them seem no more radical than those proposed by Die Linke.
What’s more, it creates the kind of inaccuracy and distortion that allow the radical right to claim that centrist parties and the mainstream media peddle misinformation; if the CDU were now to collaborate with Die Linke in Thuringia, the AfD would be certain to point out that CDU leaders had recently branded Ramelow an extremist. They can already point toward panicked Anglophone coverage in the New York Times, the BBC, and the Wall Street Journal about Die Linke’s electoral success and ask why there should be outrage when they help keep the left from power.
Germany’s political life is certain to change substantially in the near future; as Merkel’s final term draws to an end and her party continues to flounder, the direction of the country seems up for grabs. It seems increasingly likely that centrist leaders will be forced to turn either to the right or to the left for support in the near future. As that moment draws closer, it’s worth insisting on rigor and accuracy. Every time that the CDU called Ramelow an extremist, it lent a little support to the AfD; every journalist in Germany and abroad who decided that the AfD’s second-place finish was more important than Ramelow’s victory took a little wind out of the sails of an anti-fascist coalition and put it firmly behind Höcke and his racialized fear-mongering.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-07--Tunisia Sacks U.N. Ambassador for Opposing Trump’s Peace Plan

The diplomatic cost of defending the Palestinians went up this week .
On Thursday , Tunisia ’ s United Nations ambassador , Moncef Baati , was abruptly summoned to his capital after leading diplomatic negotiations on a Palestinian draft Security Resolution declaring U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s Middle East peace plan in breach of international law , according to three diplomats .
Two of those diplomats said they understood Tunisia ’ s newly elected President Kais Saied had fired Baati—who has served for only five months—following complaints from the United States .
It is viewed as part of an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in relations with the United States at the start of his administration .
The Tunisian foreign ministry issued a statement saying Baati had not adequately coordinated his U.N. stance with that of the government .
“ Tunisia ’ s ambassador to the United Nations has been dismissed for purely professional reasons concerning his weak performance and lack of coordination with the ministry on important matters under discussion at the UN , ” according to the statement .
Baati attended a meeting of the Security Council Thursday morning , according to diplomats , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the end of the day .
“ Everybody was in shock , ” said one U.N.-based ambassador .
“ He was among the most respected ambassadors at the United Nations and the government said he was fired because he was unprofessional ?
It ’ s a joke.
” “ This undercuts the credibility of Tunisia , ” the ambassador added .
The move came amid a flurry of diplomatic activity at the U.N. on the eve of a high-level visit to the Security Council next week by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump plan before the U.N. Security Council , condemn Israeli plans to annex parts of the West Bank , and present an alternative Palestinian peace plan .
He will be joined during his visit to New York by former Israeli President Ehud Olmert , who will also express his opposition to the U.S. plan .
On Thursday , Trump ’ s Middle East advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner lunched with Security Council members at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations .
Armed with charts and maps , he sought to win support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan , which would provide the Palestinians with limited sovereignty over their affairs .
The plan has met with a wall of hostility since Trump unveiled it at a White House event on Jan. 28 .
The so-called peace vision would allow Israel to keep strategic territory in the West Bank , including the Jordan Valley , and Jerusalem , ensuring that some 700,000 Israeli settlers can remain on lands captured by Israel .
Israel would also grant Israel control over a unified Jerusalem , leaving the door open for the Palestinians to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state in a poor neighborhood in east Jerusalem , cutting it off from the city by a concrete separation barrier .
A new Palestinian state would be demilitarized , with Israel maintaining considerable security control over a future Palestine .
Israel would also maintain security control over a demilitarized Palestinian state .
Kushner and other senior officials spent years coaxing Arab states into supporting a possible Trump peace plan , and the ambassadors of Bahrain , Oman , and the United Arab Emirates attended the White House event .
But that victory was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ministers of the Arab League , a 22-member union of Arab-speaking countries , unanimously rejected what the Trump team called the U.S.-Israeli “ deal of the century ” “ considering that it does not meet the minimum rights and aspirations of Palestinian people.
” In a scathing rebuke , Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit likened the plan to “ apartheid ” and said Trump ’ s proposal “ sows the seeds for another 100 years of conflict and suffering.
” But Kushner , at his lunch with Security Council members on Thursday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of diplomats have trod a similar path—based on long-standing U.N. agreements—toward peace that has ended in failure , and that it was time to give a new approach a chance , according to U.N.-based diplomats .
Likening Middle East peace negotiations to a business deal , he highlighted the importance of moving beyond principles and drilling down on the details of the plan , these diplomats added .
Saying that the U.S. priority was safeguarding Israel ’ s security , Kushner said that he recognized that the Palestinians required a viable contiguous state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country without having to go through Israeli checkpoints .
While Kushner was inflexible on the status of Jerusalem , he insisted that his plan would ensure that all holy sites in Jerusalem would be accessible to members of all religious groups , including Muslims .
Kushner assured them that the White House had urged the Israelis not to move forward immediately on plans to annex Israeli settlements before the country ’ s March 2 election .
In an interview with a small group American , Israeli , and Saudi reporters , Kushner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the occupied West Bank , saying leaders who are preparing the ground for statehood “ don ’ t call for days of rage and encourage their people to pursue violence if they ’ re not getting what they want , ” according to the Associated Press .
Kushner characterized Olmert ’ s visit to New York as “ almost pathetic , ” suggesting it was unseemly for the “ irrelevant ” former Israeli leader “ to grab headlines.
” “ It comes from a lot of jealousy that they couldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said , as AP reported .
Earlier this week , two Muslim countries on the Security Council , Tunisia and Indonesia , circulated a draft resolution—dated Feb. 4 and described as a “ non paper ” —that “ strongly regrets that the plan presented on 28 January 2020 by the United States and Israel breaches international law and internationally endorsed terms of reference for the achievement of a just , comprehensive , and lasting solution ” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict .
“ We will be seeking a position from the Security Council @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a draft resolution that will be before the Security Council , ” the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations , Riyad Mansour , told reporters .
“ We know it will be defeated by a veto .
But we want to show that the entire international community is reflecting the same position advocated by all of us … when this very bad plan was announced in Washington , D.C. ” The confidential draft , which was reviewed by Foreign Policy , also condemns recent Israeli statements calling for the annexation of Palestinian lands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creation of new settlements , and stresses “ the illegality of the annexation of any part of the Occupied Palestinian Territories , including East Jerusalem.
” The White House has responded by stepping up diplomatic pressure on Tunisia , the lone Arab country on the Security Council , to break ranks with the Palestinians .
“ Jared Kushner is going at this with a sledgehammer , ” Hanan Ashrawi , a member of the Palestinian Liberation Organization Executive Committee , told Foreign Policy in a phone interview .
“ It exposes the length @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to push their agenda , to pressure the others , to blackmail the Palestinians , yes , but also threatening countries that feel vulnerable and feel they can not afford to incur the wrath of the United States.
” Council diplomats say it remains unclear whether Indonesia or some other country will take forward the resolution , which is all but certain to face a U.S. veto .
But council diplomats from Europe and elsewhere are exploring whether a compromise resolution could be negotiated which would avoid a veto .
The American favor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the council , calling for direct negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians .

The diplomatic cost of defending the Palestinians went up this week.
On Thursday, Tunisia’s United Nations ambassador, Moncef Baati, was abruptly summoned to his capital after leading diplomatic negotiations on a Palestinian draft Security Resolution declaring U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan in breach of international law, according to three diplomats.
Two of those diplomats said they understood Tunisia’s newly elected President Kais Saied had fired Baati—who has served for only five months—following complaints from the United States. It is viewed as part of an effort to head off a major rift in relations with the United States at the start of his administration.
The Tunisian foreign ministry issued a statement saying Baati had not adequately coordinated his U.N. stance with that of the government. “Tunisia’s ambassador to the United Nations has been dismissed for purely professional reasons concerning his weak performance and lack of coordination with the ministry on important matters under discussion at the UN,” according to the statement.
Baati attended a meeting of the Security Council Thursday morning, according to diplomats, but said he was on his way home before the end of the day. “Everybody was in shock,” said one U.N.-based ambassador. “He was among the most respected ambassadors at the United Nations and the government said he was fired because he was unprofessional? It’s a joke.”
“This undercuts the credibility of Tunisia,” the ambassador added.
Another source said Tunisia’s new president is looking to remove top officials from the previous government, including Baati, and a complaint delivered from the White House sealed his fate.
The move came amid a flurry of diplomatic activity at the U.N. on the eve of a high-level visit to the Security Council next week by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who is expected to denounce the Trump plan before the U.N. Security Council, condemn Israeli plans to annex parts of the West Bank, and present an alternative Palestinian peace plan. He will be joined during his visit to New York by former Israeli President Ehud Olmert, who will also express his opposition to the U.S. plan.
On Thursday, Trump’s Middle East advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner lunched with Security Council members at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. Armed with charts and maps, he sought to win support from a skeptical audience for the 181-page plan, which would provide the Palestinians with limited sovereignty over their affairs.
The plan has met with a wall of hostility since Trump unveiled it at a White House event on Jan. 28. The so-called peace vision would allow Israel to keep strategic territory in the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley, and Jerusalem, ensuring that some 700,000 Israeli settlers can remain on lands captured by Israel. Israel would also grant Israel control over a unified Jerusalem, leaving the door open for the Palestinians to build the capital of a new Palestinian state in a poor neighborhood in east Jerusalem, cutting it off from the city by a concrete separation barrier. A new Palestinian state would be demilitarized, with Israel maintaining considerable security control over a future Palestine. Israel would also maintain security control over a demilitarized Palestinian state.
Kushner and other senior officials spent years coaxing Arab states into supporting a possible Trump peace plan, and the ambassadors of Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates attended the White House event.
But that victory was short-lived. Within days, all foreign ministers of the Arab League, a 22-member union of Arab-speaking countries, unanimously rejected what the Trump team called the U.S.-Israeli “deal of the century” “considering that it does not meet the minimum rights and aspirations of Palestinian people.”
In a scathing rebuke, Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit likened the plan to “apartheid” and said Trump’s proposal “sows the seeds for another 100 years of conflict and suffering.”
But Kushner, at his lunch with Security Council members on Thursday, reiterated his long-standing position that generations of diplomats have trod a similar path—based on long-standing U.N. agreements—toward peace that has ended in failure, and that it was time to give a new approach a chance, according to U.N.-based diplomats.
Likening Middle East peace negotiations to a business deal, he highlighted the importance of moving beyond principles and drilling down on the details of the plan, these diplomats added.
Saying that the U.S. priority was safeguarding Israel’s security, Kushner said that he recognized that the Palestinians required a viable contiguous state that would permit Palestinians to travel across the country without having to go through Israeli checkpoints. While Kushner was inflexible on the status of Jerusalem, he insisted that his plan would ensure that all holy sites in Jerusalem would be accessible to members of all religious groups, including Muslims.
Kushner assured them that the White House had urged the Israelis not to move forward immediately on plans to annex Israeli settlements before the country’s March 2 election.
In an interview with a small group American, Israeli, and Saudi reporters, Kushner blamed Abbas for an upsurge in violence since the occupied West Bank, saying leaders who are preparing the ground for statehood “don’t call for days of rage and encourage their people to pursue violence if they’re not getting what they want,” according to the Associated Press. Kushner characterized Olmert’s visit to New York as “almost pathetic,” suggesting it was unseemly for the “irrelevant” former Israeli leader “to grab headlines.”
“It comes from a lot of jealousy that they couldn’t get the job done themselves,” he said, as AP reported.
Earlier this week, two Muslim countries on the Security Council, Tunisia and Indonesia, circulated a draft resolution—dated Feb. 4 and described as a “non paper”—that “strongly regrets that the plan presented on 28 January 2020 by the United States and Israel breaches international law and internationally endorsed terms of reference for the achievement of a just, comprehensive, and lasting solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“We will be seeking a position from the Security Council, a position in the form of a draft resolution that will be before the Security Council,” the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, told reporters. “We know it will be defeated by a veto. But we want to show that the entire international community is reflecting the same position advocated by all of us … when this very bad plan was announced in Washington, D.C.”
The confidential draft, which was reviewed by Foreign Policy, also condemns recent Israeli statements calling for the annexation of Palestinian lands, calls on Israel to cease the creation of new settlements, and stresses “the illegality of the annexation of any part of the Occupied Palestinian Territories, including East Jerusalem.”
The White House has responded by stepping up diplomatic pressure on Tunisia, the lone Arab country on the Security Council, to break ranks with the Palestinians.
“Jared Kushner is going at this with a sledgehammer,” Hanan Ashrawi, a member of the Palestinian Liberation Organization Executive Committee, told Foreign Policy in a phone interview. “It exposes the length to which the Americans would really go to push their agenda, to pressure the others, to blackmail the Palestinians, yes, but also threatening countries that feel vulnerable and feel they cannot afford to incur the wrath of the United States.”
Council diplomats say it remains unclear whether Indonesia or some other country will take forward the resolution, which is all but certain to face a U.S. veto. But council diplomats from Europe and elsewhere are exploring whether a compromise resolution could be negotiated which would avoid a veto.
The Americans favor a far more stripped-down resolution emerging from the council, calling for direct negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-07--Trump Opens a New Front in the Trade Wars

Trump Opens a New Front in the Trade Wars Along with using tariffs to wage trade wars , U.S. President Donald Trump has long been obsessed by the idea that foreign countries are cheating the United States by keeping their currencies artificially low .
Now he has managed to unite those twin obsessions into a potentially dangerous new rule that could spark more trade tensions and potentially further roil relations with China , Japan , and the European Union .
This week , the U.S. Commerce Department finalized a new rule that will allow Washington to levy tariffs on countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which theoretically makes their exports cheaper and gives them an edge in competition with American-made goods .
U.S. countervailing duties , normally reserved for use against certain imports that are proved to be dumped at below-market prices , could now be slapped on imports from any country that the Commerce Department decides has cheap money .
“ This Currency Rule is an important step in ensuring that unfair trade practices are properly remedied , ” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement .
Ironically , however , the new currency rule @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump administration to remedy the negative fallout of its own trade policies .
The overall economic picture remains good—with a better-than-expected jobs report Friday , even though Trump ’ s much-touted economy has created fewer jobs per month than the Obama administration .
But sectors exposed to the trade wars , such as agriculture and manufacturing , are shedding jobs and racking up bankruptcies .
For farmers who lost their biggest export market thanks to the trade war with China , Trump has offered tens of billions of dollars in bailouts—but despite Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ export markets have yet to return .
And just last month , the administration suddenly expanded tariffs on imported steel to include products made with steel because pricier imports of raw steel make goods using that steel more expensive ( and thus less competitive ) for U.S. manufacturers to churn out .
New research suggests that the steel and aluminum tariffs may have cost the manufacturing sector as a whole 75,000 jobs ; those new “ cascading tariffs ” are an implicit recognition that the steel tariffs , just as expected , caused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good for U.S. businesses .
In January , despite the overall growth in employment , 12,000 jobs disappeared in manufacturing , underscoring Trump ’ s difficulty of turning his protectionist policies into job creators for the Rust Belt states he vowed to help .
The new currency rule promises a fresh take on an old problem—but one that is partly of Trump ’ s making .
For decades , politicians and policymakers in Washington have bristled at countries that gain an export edge thanks to currencies that seem undervalued compared with the dollar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a relatively cheap yen to become an export powerhouse .
Two decades later , China used a cheap yuan to do the same—in both cases , at the expense of some U.S. industries , though to the benefit of U.S. consumers .
Sen. Chuck Schumer , a New York Democrat , has for years tried to pass a similar currency rule through Congress .
The idea never gained much traction for two reasons .
It ’ s very difficult to determine if and by how much any given currency might be undervalued , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market and fluctuate for all sorts of reasons .
And U.S. law mandates that countervailing duties—tariffs on artificially cheap imports—must be limited to goods that benefit from a specific government subsidy , not just cheap currency .
But as economists have known for 60 years , there ’ s a bigger irony to Trump ’ s crusade against what he feels are undervalued foreign currencies , like the Chinese renminbi , the euro , or the yen .
If the dollar is stronger against those currencies these days , that ’ s partly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly the tariffs he keeps slapping on with happy abandon .
Tariffs , like those that Trump applied to foreign steel , aluminum , solar panels , washing machines , and most goods from China , raise the price of goods for U.S. consumers .
If there were lots of people out of work and lots of unused factories , tariffs might just spur more domestic production and do some good .
But that ’ s not the case in the United States today , with historically low levels of unemployment .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tariffs raise the prices of imports but there is no scope for expanding the supply of domestic substitutes , something has to push the prices of imports back down .
So the dollar rises , ” said Barry Eichengreen , a professor of economics at the University of California , Berkeley who has studied the effects of tariffs for years .
That has been especially notable since early 2018 , when the Trump administration began levying tariffs in earnest .
And that ’ s when the dollar started to rise against the yuan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currencies , making them look undervalued and spurring the administration ’ s latest crusade .
What ’ s causing the Trump administration ’ s “ dollar discomfort , ” Eichengreen said , “ is Trump ’ s own trade policies.
” For trade observers who watched how the Commerce Department implemented the steel tariffs and handed out exclusions to favored firms , the new currency rule seems likely to lead to even more backroom shenanigans like that which has worried the department ’ s own inspector general .
“ One question is whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Commerce Department or the U.S. government to use countervailing duties to address undervalued currencies , and a whole other question is whether this Commerce Department should be involved , ” said Daniel Ikenson , the director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute , who has written about the new measure .
Given the shady way that the Commerce Department handed out exclusions to well-connected companies , as the inspector general determined , Ikenson fears giving the department even more discretion over a fresh wave of controversial tariffs will just mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and underhanded dealings.
” It ’ s not entirely clear if the new measure will pass muster under World Trade Organization rules , since countervailing duties are a trade remedy to help a specific sector facing harm from a specific foreign subsidy .
The U.S. International Trade Commission will have to make the determination if any company claims cheap currency is causing harm , but it still could raise concern among other countries already alarmed by unilateral U.S. trade actions .
Another problem is how the Commerce Department will even determine if a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notoriously tricky to do .
Commerce said it would consult with the Treasury Department in making that decision but won ’ t rely on the annual determinations that Treasury officials make about other countries ’ currencies .
Last year , the Treasury Department came to the rare conclusion that China was manipulating its currency but then suddenly reversed itself as Trump wrapped up his mini-trade deal with Beijing .
A few other countries , including South Korea , Germany , Japan , and Switzerland , are on the Treasury watch list for potential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it would be looking primarily at cases of direct intervention in currency markets , as when central banks sell their holdings to drive down the local currency and juice exports ; regular policy decisions like interest rates wouldn ’ t normally be in the crosshairs , the department said .
But Ikenson noted that that ’ s at least partly about protecting the United States from similar claims abroad .
Countries accused the United States of making the dollar too cheap during the loose-credit response to the financial crisis , and Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the value of the dollar and pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to that end .
What the new currency rule does is add even more potential for conflict with America ’ s big trading partners .
Since taking office , Trump and his top trade officials have railed against what they see as unfair trade practices by big economies , especially China and the European Union .
Trade talks this year between the United States and Europe were already set to be contentious , with Trump brandishing the threat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Europe refusing to further open up its market to U.S. farm goods .
Another round of U.S. tariffs , this time stemming from a years-old dispute over European subsidies for the aerospace giant Airbus , could land this month .
Any Commerce Department action against European goods under the new rule could not only threaten to derail the already tense trade talks but would invite more retaliatory European tariffs on U.S. exports .
And the new rule could also pose a threat to the recently inked trade detente with China .
Trump has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value of its currency low to goose exports and win an unfair advantage in the United States , even though , for the most part , Beijing intervened recently in currency markets to keep its currency from falling even further—not to push it down .
But that could change early this year in the wake of the coronavirus , which has infected tens of thousands of people and killed more than 600 since the outbreak began in Wuhan , China , more than a month ago .
The virus and subsequent quarantine threaten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year when Beijing desperately needs to post healthy growth numbers .
China has already started to loosen credit to stimulate the economy , and economists expect further stimulus to minimize the economic fallout from the virus—including , perhaps , letting the currency depreciate to give exporters a little breathing room .
The Chinese state-run outlet Global Times warned that the new U.S. currency tariffs , if deployed against China , would put both the “ phase one ” trade package and any future trade talks at “ grave risk .
”

Along with using tariffs to wage trade wars, U.S. President Donald Trump has long been obsessed by the idea that foreign countries are cheating the United States by keeping their currencies artificially low. Now he has managed to unite those twin obsessions into a potentially dangerous new rule that could spark more trade tensions and potentially further roil relations with China, Japan, and the European Union.
Along with using tariffs to wage trade wars, U.S. President Donald Trump has long been obsessed by the idea that foreign countries are cheating the United States by keeping their currencies artificially low. Now he has managed to unite those twin obsessions into a potentially dangerous new rule that could spark more trade tensions and potentially further roil relations with China, Japan, and the European Union.
This week, the U.S. Commerce Department finalized a new rule that will allow Washington to levy tariffs on countries that it believes are undervaluing their currency, which theoretically makes their exports cheaper and gives them an edge in competition with American-made goods. U.S. countervailing duties, normally reserved for use against certain imports that are proved to be dumped at below-market prices, could now be slapped on imports from any country that the Commerce Department decides has cheap money.
“This Currency Rule is an important step in ensuring that unfair trade practices are properly remedied,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement.
Ironically, however, the new currency rule is just the latest effort by the Trump administration to remedy the negative fallout of its own trade policies. The overall economic picture remains good—with a better-than-expected jobs report Friday, even though Trump’s much-touted economy has created fewer jobs per month than the Obama administration.
But sectors exposed to the trade wars, such as agriculture and manufacturing, are shedding jobs and racking up bankruptcies. For farmers who lost their biggest export market thanks to the trade war with China, Trump has offered tens of billions of dollars in bailouts—but despite Chinese promises of big agricultural purchases, those export markets have yet to return.
And just last month, the administration suddenly expanded tariffs on imported steel to include products made with steel because pricier imports of raw steel make goods using that steel more expensive (and thus less competitive) for U.S. manufacturers to churn out. New research suggests that the steel and aluminum tariffs may have cost the manufacturing sector as a whole 75,000 jobs; those new “cascading tariffs” are an implicit recognition that the steel tariffs, just as expected, caused plenty of pain but did almost no good for U.S. businesses.
FP Analytics Special Report Mining the Future: How China is set to dominate the next Industrial Revolution. Read Now
In January, despite the overall growth in employment, 12,000 jobs disappeared in manufacturing, underscoring Trump’s difficulty of turning his protectionist policies into job creators for the Rust Belt states he vowed to help.
The new currency rule promises a fresh take on an old problem—but one that is partly of Trump’s making. For decades, politicians and policymakers in Washington have bristled at countries that gain an export edge thanks to currencies that seem undervalued compared with the dollar. In the 1980s, Japan used a relatively cheap yen to become an export powerhouse. Two decades later, China used a cheap yuan to do the same—in both cases, at the expense of some U.S. industries, though to the benefit of U.S. consumers. Sen. Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, has for years tried to pass a similar currency rule through Congress.
The idea never gained much traction for two reasons. It’s very difficult to determine if and by how much any given currency might be undervalued, since most are traded freely on the market and fluctuate for all sorts of reasons. And U.S. law mandates that countervailing duties—tariffs on artificially cheap imports—must be limited to goods that benefit from a specific government subsidy, not just cheap currency.
But as economists have known for 60 years, there’s a bigger irony to Trump’s crusade against what he feels are undervalued foreign currencies, like the Chinese renminbi, the euro, or the yen. If the dollar is stronger against those currencies these days, that’s partly because of his own trade policies, particularly the tariffs he keeps slapping on with happy abandon.
Tariffs, like those that Trump applied to foreign steel, aluminum, solar panels, washing machines, and most goods from China, raise the price of goods for U.S. consumers. If there were lots of people out of work and lots of unused factories, tariffs might just spur more domestic production and do some good. But that’s not the case in the United States today, with historically low levels of unemployment.
“In a fully employed economy, when tariffs raise the prices of imports but there is no scope for expanding the supply of domestic substitutes, something has to push the prices of imports back down. So the dollar rises,” said Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley who has studied the effects of tariffs for years.
That has been especially notable since early 2018, when the Trump administration began levying tariffs in earnest. And that’s when the dollar started to rise against the yuan, yen, euro, and other currencies, making them look undervalued and spurring the administration’s latest crusade. What’s causing the Trump administration’s “dollar discomfort,” Eichengreen said, “is Trump’s own trade policies.”
For trade observers who watched how the Commerce Department implemented the steel tariffs and handed out exclusions to favored firms, the new currency rule seems likely to lead to even more backroom shenanigans like that which has worried the department’s own inspector general.
“One question is whether it’s a good idea for a Commerce Department or the U.S. government to use countervailing duties to address undervalued currencies, and a whole other question is whether this Commerce Department should be involved,” said Daniel Ikenson, the director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute, who has written about the new measure.
Given the shady way that the Commerce Department handed out exclusions to well-connected companies, as the inspector general determined, Ikenson fears giving the department even more discretion over a fresh wave of controversial tariffs will just mean “more smoke-filled backrooms with cronies … and underhanded dealings.”
It’s not entirely clear if the new measure will pass muster under World Trade Organization rules, since countervailing duties are a trade remedy to help a specific sector facing harm from a specific foreign subsidy. The U.S. International Trade Commission will have to make the determination if any company claims cheap currency is causing harm, but it still could raise concern among other countries already alarmed by unilateral U.S. trade actions.
Another problem is how the Commerce Department will even determine if a foreign currency is undervalued, which is notoriously tricky to do. Commerce said it would consult with the Treasury Department in making that decision but won’t rely on the annual determinations that Treasury officials make about other countries’ currencies. Last year, the Treasury Department came to the rare conclusion that China was manipulating its currency but then suddenly reversed itself as Trump wrapped up his mini-trade deal with Beijing. A few other countries, including South Korea, Germany, Japan, and Switzerland, are on the Treasury watch list for potential currency manipulation.
The Commerce Department indicated that it would be looking primarily at cases of direct intervention in currency markets, as when central banks sell their holdings to drive down the local currency and juice exports; regular policy decisions like interest rates wouldn’t normally be in the crosshairs, the department said. But Ikenson noted that that’s at least partly about protecting the United States from similar claims abroad. Countries accused the United States of making the dollar too cheap during the loose-credit response to the financial crisis, and Trump himself has repeatedly tried to talk down the value of the dollar and pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to that end.
What the new currency rule does is add even more potential for conflict with America’s big trading partners.
Since taking office, Trump and his top trade officials have railed against what they see as unfair trade practices by big economies, especially China and the European Union. Trade talks this year between the United States and Europe were already set to be contentious, with Trump brandishing the threat of additional tariffs on European cars and with Europe refusing to further open up its market to U.S. farm goods. Another round of U.S. tariffs, this time stemming from a years-old dispute over European subsidies for the aerospace giant Airbus, could land this month. Any Commerce Department action against European goods under the new rule could not only threaten to derail the already tense trade talks but would invite more retaliatory European tariffs on U.S. exports.
And the new rule could also pose a threat to the recently inked trade detente with China. Trump has for years accused Beijing of keeping the value of its currency low to goose exports and win an unfair advantage in the United States, even though, for the most part, Beijing intervened recently in currency markets to keep its currency from falling even further—not to push it down.
But that could change early this year in the wake of the coronavirus, which has infected tens of thousands of people and killed more than 600 since the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, more than a month ago. The virus and subsequent quarantine threaten to chill Chinese economic activity in a year when Beijing desperately needs to post healthy growth numbers.
China has already started to loosen credit to stimulate the economy, and economists expect further stimulus to minimize the economic fallout from the virus—including, perhaps, letting the currency depreciate to give exporters a little breathing room.
The Chinese state-run outlet Global Times warned that the new U.S. currency tariffs, if deployed against China, would put both the “phase one” trade package and any future trade talks at “grave risk.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-07--Turkey’s Intervention in Syria Will Slow Assad, But It Won’t Stop Him

Turkey ’ s Intervention in Syria Will Slow Assad , But It Won ’ t Stop Him Once again , the international community is wringing its hands as it watches the conflict in Syria escalate .
Hundreds of thousands of refugees are fleeing toward the Turkish border , entire towns have emptied as hundreds of airstrikes pummel homes in Idlib province for days on end , and direct clashes between NATO member Turkey and the regime of Bashar al-Assad could draw in Russia , the Syrian president ’ s top backer .
On Monday , forces loyal to Assad fired @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkish troops , part of a broader cease-fire deal that mandated their presence to check any advances by government and rebel fighters and that has been in tatters for nearly a year now .
Ankara responded forcefully , with strikes against Syrian regime targets that Turkey said killed dozens of soldiers , though the figures are likely lower .
Turkish artillery fire supporting rebel defensive positions in the town of Saraqeb briefly prevented its takeover , but the regime ’ s advance toward strategic territory at the intersection of crucial thoroughfares linking western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultimately broke through and succeeded in capturing the town .
It would be disingenuous to call the latest flare-up an escalation because half a million people have already fled their homes toward the Turkish border in the last two months of regime and Russian bombardment .
Since last April , there have been more than 70 separate attacks on medical facilities .
Entire towns have been abandoned .
Hundreds of people have been killed .
The Turkish intervention does add an element of instability to an already toxic mix .
Ankara is unlikely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are too many joint interests , including energy pipelines , a nuclear reactor that is being built by Russia , and an absence of Western allies after months of tensions with NATO culminating in the deployment of the Russian S-400 missile defense system in Turkey .
But in the short term , Turkey ’ s involvement may place a temporary hold on the slaughter going on in Idlib .
Halting the Syrian advance would offer a temporary respite from a humanitarian catastrophe .
Since last spring , 800,000 people have been displaced .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Syrian refugees , a fact that has proved politically costly for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in parliamentary and mayoral elections in the country .
No more will be allowed in .
The situation is particularly dire due to winter conditions and overcrowding at the border as columns of civilians pack their belongings and flee certain death .
Their destitution is profound , as most have been displaced from other parts of Syria , often in surrender deals that forced them to give up their homes or face retribution by the regime—in Aleppo , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nearly half of Idlib ’ s 3 million civilians are children .
Idlib is one of the last remaining areas outside of government control , in addition to parts of western Aleppo , a large tract abutting the northern border that is under the control of Turkish-backed proxy forces , as well as Kurdish areas that have a symbolic government presence .
Idlib is under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham , a former al Qaeda affiliate .
The possibility of a comprehensive peace deal in Idlib was always remote , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Syrian proxies , who are busy pursuing their benefactors ’ strategic interests rather than those of the revolution , fighting Kurdish militias or being sent farther afield to Libya .
Ankara ’ s intervention will strengthen its geopolitical hand and slow Assad ’ s advance .
But Turkey ’ s intervention belies another , deeper reality : The crisis in Syria is not over .
The war has not been won .
The misery and suffering in Idlib have distracted from an economic unraveling in government-controlled areas , which has left great poverty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has collapsed in value from around 47 pounds to the dollar at the start of the uprising in 2011 to 1,200 per dollar now .
The crisis has been exacerbated by protests , economic collapse , and a dollar shortage in neighboring Lebanon , where many wealthy Syrians kept their savings .
Ordinary families are unable to buy fuel to warm their homes in a tough winter .
Assad has reclaimed much of the country with Russian backing in campaigns of great cruelty , featuring starvation sieges , relentless artillery and aerial bombardment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by surrender deals .
But these military victories have not led to an easing of economic hardship or the regime ’ s recovery from its pariah status .
Sanctions imposed by the U.S. government and European Union remain in place , and Congress recently passed a further set of tight sanctions in response to the regime ’ s war crimes as part of a defense spending bill that incorporated elements of the so-called Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act , named after a military photographer who smuggled out photos of citizens killed under torture.The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from an economic unraveling in government-controlled areas , which has left great poverty in its wake .
Hundreds of billions of dollars of reconstruction aid are unlikely to begin flowing into Syria without at least the veneer of progress on questions of political reform .
A constitutional committee whose makeup took years of negotiations to decide has yet to produce meaningful results , and its ponderousness is being supplanted by developments on the ground .
Though it is currently the only game in town as an avenue for meaningful change , progress is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term .
The absence of reconstruction money , tight sanctions , and overall economic instability strike at the heart of the Assad regime ’ s ability to function as a state and is a betrayal of the constituencies that stood by it against its enemies .
Meanwhile , rebels have suffered from a complete failure to achieve any of the desired outcomes of the uprising .
Tens of thousands of people remain unaccounted for , disappeared into Assad ’ s dungeons .
His security state remains all-powerful , and corruption and war profiteering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poor : There have been assassinations in the southern province of Daraa , small protests in Druze-majority Suweida , Israeli bombings near Damascus , and rebel incursions near Aleppo .
All that has changed is that ordinary Syrians are poorer and more traumatized , shivering in their homes without heating as Israeli missiles fly overhead , and many are feeling increasingly hopeless about their and the country ’ s prospects .
The war in Syria has always been about loss of hope—about exposing a moral rot at the core of the international order @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough bakeries and schools eviscerated , enough lives upended , and enough evil has been perpetrated with impunity that it seems the rules no longer matter .
Syria ’ s slow destruction has shown the world that the myths about humanity ’ s inherent goodness and a concerned international community upholding human rights were just that—myths .
The weak suffer what they must .
And nothing will be done about it .
The latest round of violence , the unraveling economy , and the destitution that has robbed so many Syrians of hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this erosion of decency .
Without some measure of justice , with the tyrant still on the throne , no long-term peace will be tenable , no matter how many Russian missiles or barrel bombs rain from the sky .

Once again, the international community is wringing its hands as it watches the conflict in Syria escalate. Hundreds of thousands of refugees are fleeing toward the Turkish border, entire towns have emptied as hundreds of airstrikes pummel homes in Idlib province for days on end, and direct clashes between NATO member Turkey and the regime of Bashar al-Assad could draw in Russia, the Syrian president’s top backer.
Once again, the international community is wringing its hands as it watches the conflict in Syria escalate. Hundreds of thousands of refugees are fleeing toward the Turkish border, entire towns have emptied as hundreds of airstrikes pummel homes in Idlib province for days on end, and direct clashes between NATO member Turkey and the regime of Bashar al-Assad could draw in Russia, the Syrian president’s top backer.
On Monday, forces loyal to Assad fired shells at an observation post manned by Turkish troops, part of a broader cease-fire deal that mandated their presence to check any advances by government and rebel fighters and that has been in tatters for nearly a year now. Ankara responded forcefully, with strikes against Syrian regime targets that Turkey said killed dozens of soldiers, though the figures are likely lower.
Turkish artillery fire supporting rebel defensive positions in the town of Saraqeb briefly prevented its takeover, but the regime’s advance toward strategic territory at the intersection of crucial thoroughfares linking western Syria with the rest of the country ultimately broke through and succeeded in capturing the town.
It would be disingenuous to call the latest flare-up an escalation because half a million people have already fled their homes toward the Turkish border in the last two months of regime and Russian bombardment. Since last April, there have been more than 70 separate attacks on medical facilities. Entire towns have been abandoned. Hundreds of people have been killed.
The Turkish intervention does add an element of instability to an already toxic mix. Ankara is unlikely to clash directly with Moscow; there are too many joint interests, including energy pipelines, a nuclear reactor that is being built by Russia, and an absence of Western allies after months of tensions with NATO culminating in the deployment of the Russian S-400 missile defense system in Turkey.
But in the short term, Turkey’s involvement may place a temporary hold on the slaughter going on in Idlib.
Halting the Syrian advance would offer a temporary respite from a humanitarian catastrophe. Since last spring, 800,000 people have been displaced. Turkey already hosts close to 4 million Syrian refugees, a fact that has proved politically costly for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in parliamentary and mayoral elections in the country. No more will be allowed in.
The situation is particularly dire due to winter conditions and overcrowding at the border as columns of civilians pack their belongings and flee certain death. Their destitution is profound, as most have been displaced from other parts of Syria, often in surrender deals that forced them to give up their homes or face retribution by the regime—in Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta, Daraa, and elsewhere. Nearly half of Idlib’s 3 million civilians are children.
Idlib is one of the last remaining areas outside of government control, in addition to parts of western Aleppo, a large tract abutting the northern border that is under the control of Turkish-backed proxy forces, as well as Kurdish areas that have a symbolic government presence. Idlib is under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al Qaeda affiliate.
The possibility of a comprehensive peace deal in Idlib was always remote, as was a takeover by Turkey’s Syrian proxies, who are busy pursuing their benefactors’ strategic interests rather than those of the revolution, fighting Kurdish militias or being sent farther afield to Libya. Ankara’s intervention will strengthen its geopolitical hand and slow Assad’s advance.
But Turkey’s intervention belies another, deeper reality: The crisis in Syria is not over. The war has not been won.
The misery and suffering in Idlib have distracted from an economic unraveling in government-controlled areas, which has left great poverty in its wake. The Syrian pound has collapsed in value from around 47 pounds to the dollar at the start of the uprising in 2011 to 1,200 per dollar now. The crisis has been exacerbated by protests, economic collapse, and a dollar shortage in neighboring Lebanon, where many wealthy Syrians kept their savings. Ordinary families are unable to buy fuel to warm their homes in a tough winter.
Assad has reclaimed much of the country with Russian backing in campaigns of great cruelty, featuring starvation sieges, relentless artillery and aerial bombardment, and even chemical attacks, followed by surrender deals. But these military victories have not led to an easing of economic hardship or the regime’s recovery from its pariah status.
Sanctions imposed by the U.S. government and European Union remain in place, and Congress recently passed a further set of tight sanctions in response to the regime’s war crimes as part of a defense spending bill that incorporated elements of the so-called Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, named after a military photographer who smuggled out photos of citizens killed under torture.The misery and suffering in Idlib have distracted from an economic unraveling in government-controlled areas, which has left great poverty in its wake.
Hundreds of billions of dollars of reconstruction aid are unlikely to begin flowing into Syria without at least the veneer of progress on questions of political reform. A constitutional committee whose makeup took years of negotiations to decide has yet to produce meaningful results, and its ponderousness is being supplanted by developments on the ground. Though it is currently the only game in town as an avenue for meaningful change, progress is too slow to matter in the short term.
The absence of reconstruction money, tight sanctions, and overall economic instability strike at the heart of the Assad regime’s ability to function as a state and is a betrayal of the constituencies that stood by it against its enemies.
Meanwhile, rebels have suffered from a complete failure to achieve any of the desired outcomes of the uprising. Tens of thousands of people remain unaccounted for, disappeared into Assad’s dungeons. His security state remains all-powerful, and corruption and war profiteering are still rampant. Security is still poor: There have been assassinations in the southern province of Daraa, small protests in Druze-majority Suweida, Israeli bombings near Damascus, and rebel incursions near Aleppo. All that has changed is that ordinary Syrians are poorer and more traumatized, shivering in their homes without heating as Israeli missiles fly overhead, and many are feeling increasingly hopeless about their and the country’s prospects.
The war in Syria has always been about loss of hope—about exposing a moral rot at the core of the international order. Enough hospitals have been bombed, enough bakeries and schools eviscerated, enough lives upended, and enough evil has been perpetrated with impunity that it seems the rules no longer matter.
Syria’s slow destruction has shown the world that the myths about humanity’s inherent goodness and a concerned international community upholding human rights were just that—myths. The weak suffer what they must. And nothing will be done about it.
The latest round of violence, the unraveling economy, and the destitution that has robbed so many Syrians of hope for a better tomorrow show the cost of this erosion of decency. Without some measure of justice, with the tyrant still on the throne, no long-term peace will be tenable, no matter how many Russian missiles or barrel bombs rain from the sky.