foreignpolicy--2020-02-12--Sinn Fein Just Upended Ireland’s Status Quo. What Comes Next?

Sinn Fein Just Upended Ireland ’ s Status Quo .
What Comes Next ?
“ THE SHINNERS TAKE IT ALL ” blared the front page of the Irish Daily Star on Monday , using a slang term for Sinn Fein supporters , as it became clear that a true electoral earthquake had hit Ireland .
As exit polls showed Brexit was a nonissue compared to Ireland ’ s housing and health crises , voters turned on the establishment parties that have been leading them since the foundation of the state a century ago .
With a plurality of votes going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s left-wing nationalist leader , Mary Lou McDonald , declared that Ireland is “ no longer a two-party system.
” It ’ s hard to argue with her .
Every election since the 1922 founding of what is now called the Republic of Ireland has led to a victory for either of the country ’ s two large centrist parties , Fianna Fail and Fine Gael .
Simply put , in the nearly 100 years since the island of Ireland was divided in two , something like this has never happened .
Other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what was meant to be his party ’ s post-Brexit victory lap , Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach ( Prime Minister ) Leo Varadkar watched as Sinn Fein topped the poll in his multiseat constituency of Dublin West .
He eventually won his seat back after the fifth round of counting , but it ’ s the first time a sitting taoiseach has failed to win the most votes on his own turf .
With Fine Gael receiving their lowest share of votes since 1948 , Varadkar will now face pressure to resign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figures within the party have called for it .
Support for Ireland ’ s two big parties had been trending down over a number of general elections , but their combined vote share of 43 percent on Saturday is the lowest ever .
Is this the end of the Fine Gael-Fianna Fail duopoly ?
Even with Saturday ’ s dramatic result , it ’ s still too early to write off Fine Gael , which has previously revived its fortunes after suffering electoral setbacks , most recently bouncing back from a trouncing in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the global financial crisis .
Fianna Fail , which , like Fine Gael , was formed in the aftermath of the Irish Civil War and whose political program closely resembles its rival ’ s , however , is still struggling to regain public trust since that same crisis .
In 2011 , it won only 17.5 of first preference votes as it lost 51 seats .
On Saturday , it managed to earn 22.2 percent of first preference votes but ended with just one more seat than Sinn Fein—a draw in reality given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s outgoing speaker uncontested .
It ’ s not unprecedented for a previously dominant party to disappear from the political scene .
Canada ’ s Progressive Conservative Party collapsed in 1993 ’ s federal elections , losing 167 out of 169 seats , and it never recovered .
“ Fianna Fail ’ s collapse really started in the financial crisis of 2008 , didn ’ t register until that 2011 election , and essentially has been going on ever since , ” said Richard Katz , a professor at Johns Hopkins University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parties .
For Katz , the old loyalties that propped up Ireland ’ s main parties are dissolving with time .
“ The old party system , derived from Ireland ’ s civil war based on what side your father or your grandfather was on , doesn ’ t work so well when it ’ s your great-grandfather : You never even met him , ” he said .
Does this mean a Sinn Fein-led government ?
Despite the history made in Saturday ’ s results , party support has become so fragmented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victory for Sinn Fein .
Final seat allocations put Fine Gael , Fianna Fail , and Sinn Fein at 35 , 38 , and 37 seats , respectively .
Barring a confidence-and-supply arrangement , in which parties agree to support the government on certain critical votes , it ’ s now up to the parties to find a way to reach the 80 seats needed to form a majority .
A Sinn Fein-led left coalition seems to be on the table , after confirmed reports of early contact being made between Irish Labour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s McDonald , with the two set to meet on Wednesday .
Even if the conversation proves fruitful , Sinn Fein will need a lot more than Labour ’ s six seats .
Indeed , even with the support of Ireland ’ s other left-wing parties , they would still come up short of a majority .
Gaining the support of the sizable independent cohort in the Dail Eireann , the lower house of the Irish legislature , could make the math add up , but that may involve more backroom dealing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up with .
Fianna Fail is traditionally skeptical of Sinn Fein due to the party ’ s past IRA links , and any decision to enter into government must be approved by the rank and file of both parties .
Another scenario that ’ s only slightly less complicated would involve an alliance between Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail , with a third partner likely needed in the form of the Green Party or independents .
Fianna Fail ’ s leader , Micheal Martin , already swallowed his pride last Sunday and made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein .
After decades in the political wilderness , Sinn Fein may see the opportunity as too good to pass up .
However , such an outcome would still involve complicated tradeoffs : Although Sinn Fein won more votes , Fianna Fail would hold one more seat .
Defining who the junior partner in such a government would lead to some awkward arrangements , including a “ rotating taoiseach ” where each party leader would take it in turns to lead the government—something that has never happened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the question of grassroots approval .
Fianna Fail is traditionally skeptical of Sinn Fein due to the party ’ s past IRA links , and any decision to enter into government must be approved by the rank and file of both parties .
A Fianna Fail member in Dublin , speaking anonymously in order to discuss internal party decision-making , said that “ there would be a strong feeling against [ coalition ] amongst Fianna Fail ’ s grassroots ” and that despite alignment on many policy issues , there remains a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no Sinn Fein or Fianna Fail-led coalition can be agreed on , a new election would have to be called .
Ireland has never had a government led by a left-wing party , so such a party ’ s approach would likely differ in style from that of its predecessors .
Still , the three main parties are aligned on issues such as Brexit , the European Union , and maintaining Ireland ’ s attractive 12.5 percent corporate tax rate .
Sinn Fein ’ s manifesto says it would end Ireland ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Structured Cooperation , which it sees as a precursor to an EU army , as well as ending membership in NATO ’ s Partnership for Peace .
It also proposes taking its anti-militarism a step further by holding a referendum on writing Ireland ’ s historical practice of neutrality into the Irish Constitution .
The U.S. military ’ s use of Shannon Airport on Ireland ’ s west coast as a refueling point is likely to come under scrutiny , too .
In August 2019 , Sinn Fein ’ s foreign affairs spokesperson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectively turning the airport “ into a forward base of the U.S. military ” and called on Varadkar ’ s government to “ end this violation of Irish neutrality and restore Shannon Airport as a civilian airport.
” Sinn Fein ’ s all-island bona fides were further strengthened by Saturday ’ s vote : It can now claim a Sinn Fein member of parliament in all 32 counties of both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland .
If Sinn Fein manages to enter into power , a promise to vote on Irish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ border poll ” ) within the lifetime of that government is likely to be a key plank of the new administration ’ s agenda and a negotiating red line before any coalition is formed .
Although Saturday ’ s exit polls indicate 57 percent of Irish voters support a border poll , it ’ s not possible to say whether that translates to a vote for unification .
An independent poll taken in Northern Ireland last August and September put supporters and detractors of unification in a statistical tie .
If a Sinn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power , it could not only lead to coordination between Sinn Fein and its northern members but also allow Fianna Fail to make the most of its partnership formed in 2019 with Northern Ireland ’ s Social Democratic and Labour Party ( SDLP ) .
Ireland ’ s leading nationalist parties speaking with one voice could spook hard-line unionists , who favor loyalty to the United Kingdom , something Tom Kelly , a former vice chairman of the SDLP writing in the Belfast Telegraph , was able to put in context : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Irish Government , but not overly so , because they have had to share power with Sinn Fein for 20 years.
” Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster appeared to pour cold water on any possible border poll in a tweet pointing to the relative decline in support for pro-unification parties in past Northern Ireland elections .
“ Irrespective of the view in Dublin or Brussels , a border poll can only be called by [ the British secretary of state ] if it appears likely to secure a majority in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ No such circumstances exist in Northern Ireland.
” Given Foster ’ s Northern Irish party ’ s poor performance in the December 2019 U.K. general election—in which it lost two key seats and its kingmaker status in Westminster—Northern Ireland is now represented in the British Parliament by more nationalist MPs than unionist ones for the first time in its history .
As a result , the circumstances that she claims don ’ t exist are edging ever closer .

“THE SHINNERS TAKE IT ALL” blared the front page of the Irish Daily Star on Monday, using a slang term for Sinn Fein supporters, as it became clear that a true electoral earthquake had hit Ireland. As exit polls showed Brexit was a nonissue compared to Ireland’s housing and health crises, voters turned on the establishment parties that have been leading them since the foundation of the state a century ago.
“THE SHINNERS TAKE IT ALL” blared the front page of the Irish Daily Star on Monday, using a slang term for Sinn Fein supporters, as it became clear that a true electoral earthquake had hit Ireland. As exit polls showed Brexit was a nonissue compared to Ireland’s housing and health crises, voters turned on the establishment parties that have been leading them since the foundation of the state a century ago.
With a plurality of votes going to her party, Sinn Fein’s left-wing nationalist leader, Mary Lou McDonald, declared that Ireland is “no longer a two-party system.” It’s hard to argue with her. Every election since the 1922 founding of what is now called the Republic of Ireland has led to a victory for either of the country’s two large centrist parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Simply put, in the nearly 100 years since the island of Ireland was divided in two, something like this has never happened.
Other records were set, too. In what was meant to be his party’s post-Brexit victory lap, Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar watched as Sinn Fein topped the poll in his multiseat constituency of Dublin West. He eventually won his seat back after the fifth round of counting, but it’s the first time a sitting taoiseach has failed to win the most votes on his own turf.
With Fine Gael receiving their lowest share of votes since 1948, Varadkar will now face pressure to resign as party leader, although no major figures within the party have called for it. Support for Ireland’s two big parties had been trending down over a number of general elections, but their combined vote share of 43 percent on Saturday is the lowest ever.
Is this the end of the Fine Gael-Fianna Fail duopoly?
Even with Saturday’s dramatic result, it’s still too early to write off Fine Gael, which has previously revived its fortunes after suffering electoral setbacks, most recently bouncing back from a trouncing in 2002 to top polls in 2011 following the global financial crisis. Fianna Fail, which, like Fine Gael, was formed in the aftermath of the Irish Civil War and whose political program closely resembles its rival’s, however, is still struggling to regain public trust since that same crisis. In 2011, it won only 17.5 of first preference votes as it lost 51 seats. On Saturday, it managed to earn 22.2 percent of first preference votes but ended with just one more seat than Sinn Fein—a draw in reality given that one seat goes to the parliament’s outgoing speaker uncontested.
It’s not unprecedented for a previously dominant party to disappear from the political scene. Canada’s Progressive Conservative Party collapsed in 1993’s federal elections, losing 167 out of 169 seats, and it never recovered. “Fianna Fail’s collapse really started in the financial crisis of 2008, didn’t register until that 2011 election, and essentially has been going on ever since,” said Richard Katz, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who studies the evolution of large political parties. For Katz, the old loyalties that propped up Ireland’s main parties are dissolving with time. “The old party system, derived from Ireland’s civil war based on what side your father or your grandfather was on, doesn’t work so well when it’s your great-grandfather: You never even met him,” he said.
Does this mean a Sinn Fein-led government?
Despite the history made in Saturday’s results, party support has become so fragmented that it’s still no clean victory for Sinn Fein. Final seat allocations put Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, and Sinn Fein at 35, 38, and 37 seats, respectively. Barring a confidence-and-supply arrangement, in which parties agree to support the government on certain critical votes, it’s now up to the parties to find a way to reach the 80 seats needed to form a majority.
A Sinn Fein-led left coalition seems to be on the table, after confirmed reports of early contact being made between Irish Labour Party leader Brendan Howlin and Sinn Fein’s McDonald, with the two set to meet on Wednesday. Even if the conversation proves fruitful, Sinn Fein will need a lot more than Labour’s six seats.
Indeed, even with the support of Ireland’s other left-wing parties, they would still come up short of a majority. Gaining the support of the sizable independent cohort in the Dail Eireann, the lower house of the Irish legislature, could make the math add up, but that may involve more backroom dealing than Sinn Fein is willing to put up with.
Fianna Fail is traditionally skeptical of Sinn Fein due to the party’s past IRA links, and any decision to enter into government must be approved by the rank and file of both parties.
Another scenario that’s only slightly less complicated would involve an alliance between Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail, with a third partner likely needed in the form of the Green Party or independents. Fianna Fail’s leader, Micheal Martin, already swallowed his pride last Sunday and made a U-turn on his campaign promise not to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein. After decades in the political wilderness, Sinn Fein may see the opportunity as too good to pass up.
However, such an outcome would still involve complicated tradeoffs: Although Sinn Fein won more votes, Fianna Fail would hold one more seat. Defining who the junior partner in such a government would lead to some awkward arrangements, including a “rotating taoiseach” where each party leader would take it in turns to lead the government—something that has never happened in Ireland.
There’s also the question of grassroots approval. Fianna Fail is traditionally skeptical of Sinn Fein due to the party’s past IRA links, and any decision to enter into government must be approved by the rank and file of both parties. A Fianna Fail member in Dublin, speaking anonymously in order to discuss internal party decision-making, said that “there would be a strong feeling against [coalition] amongst Fianna Fail’s grassroots” and that despite alignment on many policy issues, there remains a “deep suspicion of Sinn Fein.”
If no Sinn Fein or Fianna Fail-led coalition can be agreed on, a new election would have to be called.
How would Sinn Fein approach foreign policy?
Ireland has never had a government led by a left-wing party, so such a party’s approach would likely differ in style from that of its predecessors. Still, the three main parties are aligned on issues such as Brexit, the European Union, and maintaining Ireland’s attractive 12.5 percent corporate tax rate.
Sinn Fein’s manifesto says it would end Ireland’s involvement in the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation, which it sees as a precursor to an EU army, as well as ending membership in NATO’s Partnership for Peace. It also proposes taking its anti-militarism a step further by holding a referendum on writing Ireland’s historical practice of neutrality into the Irish Constitution.
The U.S. military’s use of Shannon Airport on Ireland’s west coast as a refueling point is likely to come under scrutiny, too. In August 2019, Sinn Fein’s foreign affairs spokesperson Sean Crowe accused the Irish government of effectively turning the airport “into a forward base of the U.S. military” and called on Varadkar’s government to “end this violation of Irish neutrality and restore Shannon Airport as a civilian airport.”
What about Northern Ireland?
Sinn Fein’s all-island bona fides were further strengthened by Saturday’s vote: It can now claim a Sinn Fein member of parliament in all 32 counties of both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
If Sinn Fein manages to enter into power, a promise to vote on Irish reunification (commonly known as a “border poll”) within the lifetime of that government is likely to be a key plank of the new administration’s agenda and a negotiating red line before any coalition is formed. Although Saturday’s exit polls indicate 57 percent of Irish voters support a border poll, it’s not possible to say whether that translates to a vote for unification. An independent poll taken in Northern Ireland last August and September put supporters and detractors of unification in a statistical tie.
If a Sinn Fein-Fianna Fail coalition does end up in power, it could not only lead to coordination between Sinn Fein and its northern members but also allow Fianna Fail to make the most of its partnership formed in 2019 with Northern Ireland’s Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP).
Ireland’s leading nationalist parties speaking with one voice could spook hard-line unionists, who favor loyalty to the United Kingdom, something Tom Kelly, a former vice chairman of the SDLP writing in the Belfast Telegraph, was able to put in context: “Unionists will be nervous about Sinn Fein in the Irish Government, but not overly so, because they have had to share power with Sinn Fein for 20 years.”
Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster appeared to pour cold water on any possible border poll in a tweet pointing to the relative decline in support for pro-unification parties in past Northern Ireland elections. “Irrespective of the view in Dublin or Brussels, a border poll can only be called by [the British secretary of state] if it appears likely to secure a majority in Northern Ireland,” she wrote dismissively. “No such circumstances exist in Northern Ireland.”
Given Foster’s Northern Irish party’s poor performance in the December 2019 U.K. general election—in which it lost two key seats and its kingmaker status in Westminster—Northern Ireland is now represented in the British Parliament by more nationalist MPs than unionist ones for the first time in its history. As a result, the circumstances that she claims don’t exist are edging ever closer.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-13--Coronavirus Epicenter Reports Surge in New Cases

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : China ’ s Hubei province reports thousands of new coronavirus cases , Lebanon requests technical help from the IMF amid economic crisis , and Italy ’ s Matteo Salvini could go on trial over migration case .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
China ’ s Hubei province , where the coronavirus outbreak began , has reported 14,840 new cases and 242 deaths after using a new method to diagnose the severe respiratory illness .
The news came a day after China had recorded the lowest number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two weeks , filling observers with cautious optimism .
But the World Health Organization ( WHO ) had issued a warning on Wednesday : “ This outbreak could still go in any direction , ” Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said .
Many of the new cases in Hubei were diagnosed by CT scan , with the province suffering a shortage of diagnostic test kits .
With the new method , there could be further surges in new cases in the coming days : The test kits used to diagnose the virus require several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 percent accurate .
Asian markets appeared shaky after the new figures from Hubei were reported on Thursday .
Unanswered questions .
Weeks into the outbreak , it seems there are still more questions than facts .
It ’ s still unknown exactly how many cases there are , how deadly the virus is , and when the government confirmed human-to-human transmission .
That ’ s in part because of the novelty of the virus and the scale of the outbreak—but it ’ s also because the Chinese government routinely conceals information from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Palmer writes .
Looking for a cure .
Scientists in China are testing two drugs that could treat the virus , according to the WHO .
The combination medicine is used effectively in the treatment of HIV and available as a generic formula .
Whether it will work against the new coronavirus will be clear within a few weeks .
A vaccine to slow the outbreak won ’ t be available by the fall at the earliest .
For more news and analysis on stories like this , sign up for China Brief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the IMF .
Lebanon has formally requested technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund to stabilize its economy .
The new government , which won a confidence vote on Tuesday , is grappling with mass protests spurred by economic crisis and faces a $ 1.2 billion debt payment due on March 9 .
The IMF ’ s technical team arrives in Beirut in the coming days to help come up with a plan , including possible debt restructuring .
An IMF statement on Wednesday did not mention any financial assistance for Lebanon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boat .
On Wednesday , Italian senators voted to remove far-right leader Matteo Salvini ’ s immunity as a former cabinet minister .
The move sets up a possible trial over accusations that Salvini—then the interior minister—broke the law by keeping over 100 migrants detained on a ship for six days last July while he waited for other European states to take them in .
If Sicilian officials charge Salvini , the trial could end his career : A conviction would carry up to 15 years in prison and ban him from political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flights .
Gen. Khalifa Haftar ’ s Libyan National Army ( LNA ) will not allow the United Nations to use Tripoli ’ s only functioning airport , where the U.N. said that restrictions had slowed down humanitarian aid and mediation in Libya ’ s long-running conflict .
Backed by air support from the United Arab Emirates , the LNA is waging a campaign to take Tripoli , where the internationally-recognized government is based .
The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday adopted a resolution calling for a lasting cease-fire .
Canadian pipeline protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launched a legal challenge against the construction of a gas pipeline through British Columbia over its climate impact .
Though some of the community ’ s elected officials back the project , protesters supporting the leaders of the Wet ’ suwet ’ en Nation have disrupted rail lines for six straight days .
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called for a quick end to the protests .
The U.S. and the WTO .
The United States is considering a plan to raise its tariff ceiling—a move designed to trigger renegotiations with members of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Trump administration seeks to rebalance global trading rules , which it sees as working against the United States .
Washington has already obstructed the WTO ’ s ability to resolve disputes , as FP ’ s Keith Johnson reported last year .
A cruise ship in Cambodia .
After being turned away from five countries over coronavirus fears , a cruise ship that left Hong Kong two weeks ago has docked in Cambodia with nearly 1,500 passengers .
No one onboard the Westerdam is ill , but passengers were unable to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Philippines , or Thailand .
Prime Minister Hun Sen , who has aligned Cambodia closely with China , has been reluctant to raise the alarm over the virus .
As the British Home Office evaluates applications in the post-Brexit EU settlement scheme , it has run into some glitches .
Last week , a 101-year-old Italian man , Giovanni Palmiero , who has lived in London since 1966 was informed his parents would need to confirm his identity after the EU settled status app read his birth year as 2019 instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like a humiliation , you ’ ve been here so long and then all of a sudden this happens … people of his age should not have to go through this process , ” his son told the Guardian .
The issue was resolved after a few phone calls convinced the Home Office that its software was at fault .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com @

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: China’s Hubei province reports thousands of new coronavirus cases, Lebanon requests technical help from the IMF amid economic crisis, and Italy’s Matteo Salvini could go on trial over migration case.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: China’s Hubei province reports thousands of new coronavirus cases, Lebanon requests technical help from the IMF amid economic crisis, and Italy’s Matteo Salvini could go on trial over migration case.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
New Coronavirus Cases Surge in Hubei
China’s Hubei province, where the coronavirus outbreak began, has reported 14,840 new cases and 242 deaths after using a new method to diagnose the severe respiratory illness. The news came a day after China had recorded the lowest number of new cases of the virus countrywide in two weeks, filling observers with cautious optimism. But the World Health Organization (WHO) had issued a warning on Wednesday: “This outbreak could still go in any direction,” Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
Many of the new cases in Hubei were diagnosed by CT scan, with the province suffering a shortage of diagnostic test kits. With the new method, there could be further surges in new cases in the coming days: The test kits used to diagnose the virus require several steps and are reportedly only 30 to 50 percent accurate. Asian markets appeared shaky after the new figures from Hubei were reported on Thursday.
Unanswered questions. Weeks into the outbreak, it seems there are still more questions than facts. It’s still unknown exactly how many cases there are, how deadly the virus is, and when the government confirmed human-to-human transmission. That’s in part because of the novelty of the virus and the scale of the outbreak—but it’s also because the Chinese government routinely conceals information from the public, FP’s James Palmer writes.
Looking for a cure. Scientists in China are testing two drugs that could treat the virus, according to the WHO. The combination medicine is used effectively in the treatment of HIV and available as a generic formula. Whether it will work against the new coronavirus will be clear within a few weeks. A vaccine to slow the outbreak won’t be available until the fall at the earliest.
For more news and analysis on stories like this, sign up for China Brief, delivered on Wednesdays.
What We’re Following Today
Lebanon calls on the IMF. Lebanon has formally requested technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund to stabilize its economy. The new government, which won a confidence vote on Tuesday, is grappling with mass protests spurred by economic crisis and faces a $1.2 billion debt payment due on March 9. The IMF’s technical team arrives in Beirut in the coming days to help come up with a plan, including possible debt restructuring. An IMF statement on Wednesday did not mention any financial assistance for Lebanon.
Salvini could see trial over migrant boat. On Wednesday, Italian senators voted to remove far-right leader Matteo Salvini’s immunity as a former cabinet minister. The move sets up a possible trial over accusations that Salvini—then the interior minister—broke the law by keeping over 100 migrants detained on a ship for six days last July while he waited for other European states to take them in. If Sicilian officials charge Salvini, the trial could end his career: A conviction would carry up to 15 years in prison and ban him from political office.
Libyan airport closed to U.N. flights. Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) will not allow the United Nations to use Tripoli’s only functioning airport, where the U.N. said that restrictions had slowed down humanitarian aid and mediation in Libya’s long-running conflict. Backed by air support from the United Arab Emirates, the LNA is waging a campaign to take Tripoli, where the internationally-recognized government is based. The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday adopted a resolution calling for a lasting cease-fire.
Keep an Eye On
Canadian pipeline protests. An indigenous community in Canada has launched a legal challenge against the construction of a gas pipeline through British Columbia over its climate impact. Though some of the community’s elected officials back the project, protesters supporting the leaders of the Wet’suwet’en Nation have disrupted rail lines for six straight days. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called for a quick end to the protests.
The U.S. and the WTO. The United States is considering a plan to raise its tariff ceiling—a move designed to trigger renegotiations with members of the World Trade Organization, Bloomberg reports. The Trump administration seeks to rebalance global trading rules, which it sees as working against the United States. Washington has already obstructed the WTO’s ability to resolve disputes, as FP’s Keith Johnson reported last year.
A cruise ship in Cambodia. After being turned away from five countries over coronavirus fears, a cruise ship that left Hong Kong two weeks ago has docked in Cambodia with nearly 1,500 passengers. No one onboard the Westerdam is ill, but passengers were unable to disembark in Japan, Taiwan, Guam, the Philippines, or Thailand. Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has aligned Cambodia closely with China, has been reluctant to raise the alarm over the virus.
Odds and Ends
As the British Home Office evaluates applications in the post-Brexit EU settlement scheme, it has run into some glitches. Last week, a 101-year-old Italian man, Giovanni Palmiero, who has lived in London since 1966 was informed his parents would need to confirm his identity after the EU settled status app read his birth year as 2019 instead of 1919. “It’s like a humiliation, you’ve been here so long and then all of a sudden this happens … people of his age should not have to go through this process,” his son told the Guardian. The issue was resolved after a few phone calls convinced the Home Office that its software was at fault.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-13--What Really Happened to Carlos Ghosn?

What Really Happened to Carlos Ghosn?

What Really Happened to Carlos Ghosn ?
Nissan Motor Co. filed a lawsuit Wednesday against its former CEO Carlos Ghosn seeking $ 90 million in damages for “ misconduct and fraudulent activity ” and “ corrupt practices over many years.
” It ’ s the latest move in a monthslong legal dispute between Nissan and Ghosn , a national of France , Brazil , and Lebanon who had been awaiting trial in Japan until he fled to Lebanon in dramatic circumstances this past December .
Ghosn is something of a celebrity in both Japan and Lebanon for his role in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ near-bankruptcy in the late 1990s .
Between 2001 and 2002 , Ghosn was depicted in a manga series called The True Life of Carlos Ghosn .
When news of his November 2018 arrest reached Lebanon , the country ’ s then-Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk was defiant , telling a security conference in Beirut that “ a Lebanese phoenix will not be scorched by the Japanese sun.
” How did Ghosn make his mysterious escape ?
Ghosn ’ s flight from Japan ’ s authorities began simply—he walked out of the home in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of his bail terms—and then got steadily more complicated .
According to investigations by the Japanese news outlets NHK and Nikkei , Ghosn met with two conspirators at a nearby hotel , who then took him on a high-speed train to Osaka .
After spending the night at an airport hotel , Ghosn ’ s accomplices left for the Kansai airport to board a private jet—all while lugging a large concert equipment box concealing Ghosn inside .
According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal , the X-ray machine at Kansai ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to scan the box , allowing Ghosn to be smuggled aboard a flight to Istanbul .
Once there , Ghosn boarded another private flight bound for Beirut , where , according to Lebanese authorities , he used his French passport and Lebanese identification card to gain entry .
French authorities have denied his use of French documents to enter Lebanon .
The audacious escape required a team of experienced operators to work and included at least one American , former U.S. Green Beret Michael Taylor , according to reporting by the New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security consultant and is known for his familiarity with Lebanon .
On Jan. 30 , Japan issued arrest warrants for Taylor , his son Peter Taylor , and another alleged accomplice , George-Antoine Zayek .
What is Ghosn actually accused of doing ?
Wednesday ’ s suit seeks to recover expenses that Nissan says Ghosn incurred fraudulently using the company ’ s accounts .
According to a statement issued by Nissan , those costs include the use of overseas residential property without paying rent , private use of corporate jets , payments to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ personal lawyer in Lebanon .
Nissan ’ s latest suit adds to existing charges against Ghosn of financial misconduct , including embezzlement .
One of the most recent charges came after an internal Nissan investigation highlighting $ 35 million in payments made to a company distributor in Oman .
It is alleged that some of this money was used to purchase a yacht for Ghosn and to furnish investment capital for his son ’ s company .
Writing in Nikkei after Ghosn ’ s initial arrest , the Tokyo-based corporate lawyer and academic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former CEO “ less serious than the corporate misfeasance that is routinely overlooked in Japan.
” Givens has also written that the case gave off “ the strong impression that from the start this has been a fishing expedition in search of a crime.
” What does Ghosn ’ s case tell us about Japan ’ s legal system ?
Under Japan ’ s justice system , authorities can hold those suspected of committing a crime for 23 days without an indictment .
Critics say that length of time is arbitrary , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different charges against the accused to reset the detention clock .
Using these tactics , Japanese prosecutors were able to hold Ghosn in detention for 108 days .
Critics say these methods can lead to false confessions , not least because defendants are not allowed access to lawyers during this period of questioning .
On April 10 , 2019 , in light of Ghosn ’ s long detention , Human Rights Watch issued a statement signed by over 1,000 Japanese legal professionals calling for an end to this practice , known as hitojichi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Minister of Justice Masako Mori refuted Ghosn ’ s protests over the manner in which he was held in a Jan. 9 statement : “ In Japan , a suspect has a right to remain silent and to seek advice from a lawyer without the presence of a witness .
The basic human rights of a suspect is duly taken into account by giving [ an ] adequate break to the suspect during the interrogation.
” Although Ghosn ’ s is the case grabbing headlines , Brad Adams , the executive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rights Watch , said that ongoing research suggests that the Japanese system of hostage justice affects the poor more than any other class .
“ This is a system set up to extract confessions , ” Adams said , “ Legal recourse is more or less fruitless : If a prosecutor really wants you held because he thinks he can extract a confession , then people often give in.
” Adams added that there is no existing data or means to know how often innocent people plead guilty .
What happens next ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the charges brought against him are motivated by a desire among some Nissan executives for a boardroom coup .
Nissan ’ s statement on Wednesday suggested the automaker would not let up in its campaign against Ghosn , saying it “ reserves the right to pursue separate legal action over groundless and defamatory remarks ” made during a press conference he held following his flight from Japan .
A spokesman for Ghosn has accused Nissan of “ trying to create a diversion ahead of its worst results since 2009.
” Ghosn remains in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where he hopes to have his case heard .
Lebanese judicial authorities have said they will not extradite Ghosn to Japan and have banned him from traveling outside the country .
Though Ghosn has said he will abide by the travel ban , his accusers in Japan will be hoping Lebanon is keeping an eye on its airport scanners .
Correction , Feb. 13 , 2020 : The image above depicts Carlos Ghosn addressing a crowd of journalists in Beirut .
A previous version of this article misstated where the photo was taken @

Nissan Motor Co. filed a lawsuit Wednesday against its former CEO Carlos Ghosn seeking $90 million in damages for “misconduct and fraudulent activity” and “corrupt practices over many years.”
Nissan Motor Co. filed a lawsuit Wednesday against its former CEO Carlos Ghosn seeking $90 million in damages for “misconduct and fraudulent activity” and “corrupt practices over many years.”
It’s the latest move in a monthslong legal dispute between Nissan and Ghosn, a national of France, Brazil, and Lebanon who had been awaiting trial in Japan until he fled to Lebanon in dramatic circumstances this past December.
Ghosn is something of a celebrity in both Japan and Lebanon for his role in turning Nissan’s fortunes around from near-bankruptcy in the late 1990s. Between 2001 and 2002, Ghosn was depicted in a manga series called The True Life of Carlos Ghosn. When news of his November 2018 arrest reached Lebanon, the country’s then-Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk was defiant, telling a security conference in Beirut that “a Lebanese phoenix will not be scorched by the Japanese sun.”
How did Ghosn make his mysterious escape?
Ghosn’s flight from Japan’s authorities began simply—he walked out of the home in which he was staying under 24-hour surveillance as part of his bail terms—and then got steadily more complicated.
According to investigations by the Japanese news outlets NHK and Nikkei, Ghosn met with two conspirators at a nearby hotel, who then took him on a high-speed train to Osaka. After spending the night at an airport hotel, Ghosn’s accomplices left for the Kansai airport to board a private jet—all while lugging a large concert equipment box concealing Ghosn inside. According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal, the X-ray machine at Kansai’s private terminal was not large enough to scan the box, allowing Ghosn to be smuggled aboard a flight to Istanbul. Once there, Ghosn boarded another private flight bound for Beirut, where, according to Lebanese authorities, he used his French passport and Lebanese identification card to gain entry. French authorities have denied his use of French documents to enter Lebanon.
The audacious escape required a team of experienced operators to work and included at least one American, former U.S. Green Beret Michael Taylor, according to reporting by the New York Times. Taylor now works as a security consultant and is known for his familiarity with Lebanon. On Jan. 30, Japan issued arrest warrants for Taylor, his son Peter Taylor, and another alleged accomplice, George-Antoine Zayek.
What is Ghosn actually accused of doing?
Wednesday’s suit seeks to recover expenses that Nissan says Ghosn incurred fraudulently using the company’s accounts. According to a statement issued by Nissan, those costs include the use of overseas residential property without paying rent, private use of corporate jets, payments to his sister, and payments to his personal lawyer in Lebanon.
Nissan’s latest suit adds to existing charges against Ghosn of financial misconduct, including embezzlement. One of the most recent charges came after an internal Nissan investigation highlighting $35 million in payments made to a company distributor in Oman. It is alleged that some of this money was used to purchase a yacht for Ghosn and to furnish investment capital for his son’s company.
Writing in Nikkei after Ghosn’s initial arrest, the Tokyo-based corporate lawyer and academic Stephen Givens called the case against the former CEO “less serious than the corporate misfeasance that is routinely overlooked in Japan.” Givens has also written that the case gave off “the strong impression that from the start this has been a fishing expedition in search of a crime.”
What does Ghosn’s case tell us about Japan’s legal system?
Under Japan’s justice system, authorities can hold those suspected of committing a crime for 23 days without an indictment. Critics say that length of time is arbitrary, as prosecutors can simply bring new, slightly different charges against the accused to reset the detention clock. Using these tactics, Japanese prosecutors were able to hold Ghosn in detention for 108 days.
Critics say these methods can lead to false confessions, not least because defendants are not allowed access to lawyers during this period of questioning. On April 10, 2019, in light of Ghosn’s long detention, Human Rights Watch issued a statement signed by over 1,000 Japanese legal professionals calling for an end to this practice, known as hitojichi shiho or “hostage justice.”
Japan’s Minister of Justice Masako Mori refuted Ghosn’s protests over the manner in which he was held in a Jan. 9 statement: “In Japan, a suspect has a right to remain silent and to seek advice from a lawyer without the presence of a witness. The basic human rights of a suspect is duly taken into account by giving [an] adequate break to the suspect during the interrogation.”
Although Ghosn’s is the case grabbing headlines, Brad Adams, the executive director of the Asia division of Human Rights Watch, said that ongoing research suggests that the Japanese system of hostage justice affects the poor more than any other class. “This is a system set up to extract confessions,” Adams said, “Legal recourse is more or less fruitless: If a prosecutor really wants you held because he thinks he can extract a confession, then people often give in.” Adams added that there is no existing data or means to know how often innocent people plead guilty.
What happens next?
Ghosn has denied the accusations and says the charges brought against him are motivated by a desire among some Nissan executives for a boardroom coup.
Nissan’s statement on Wednesday suggested the automaker would not let up in its campaign against Ghosn, saying it “reserves the right to pursue separate legal action over groundless and defamatory remarks” made during a press conference he held following his flight from Japan. A spokesman for Ghosn has accused Nissan of “trying to create a diversion ahead of its worst results since 2009.”
Ghosn remains in his childhood home country of Lebanon, where he hopes to have his case heard. Lebanese judicial authorities have said they will not extradite Ghosn to Japan and have banned him from traveling outside the country. Though Ghosn has said he will abide by the travel ban, his accusers in Japan will be hoping Lebanon is keeping an eye on its airport scanners.
Correction, Feb. 13, 2020: The image above depicts Carlos Ghosn addressing a crowd of journalists in Beirut. A previous version of this article misstated where the photo was taken.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-13--Coronavirus Threatens to Blow Up Trump’s Energy Trade Deal With China

Coronavirus Threatens to Blow Up Trump ’ s Energy Trade Deal With China Energy trade was the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s just-completed pact with China , seemingly matching soaring U.S. production of oil and natural gas with bottomless Chinese demand for fuel .
While it was always going to be a stretch to meet the ambitious Chinese purchase targets laid out in the agreement , the recent explosion of the coronavirus and the impact it has had on China ’ s economic growth have now made those grandiose energy visions completely unrealistic—just as Trump takes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s benefits ahead of his reelection bid .
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus , which has infected tens of thousands of people and killed more than 1,300 in little more than a month , seemed to have peaked—until new diagnostic techniques this week showed that the virus had infected thousands more and killed hundreds more than previously thought .
And the uptick in the disease ’ s virulence has been matched by growing signs of its impact on China ’ s and the global economy : Cargo ships are piling up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil and petrochemical refineries are scaling back operations due to declining demand for their products ; Chinese consumer spending is anemic ; and supply chains worldwide are shuddering .
Air freight , a key indicator of global trade , seemed on the uptick after a dismal 2019 , until it collapsed again in January , a potential harbinger of a broader slowdown in cross-border trade flows .
The International Energy Agency just underscored the dramatic impact the virus is having : For the first time since the financial crisis a decade ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil will decline in the first quarter of the year , led by a precipitous fall in oil demand in China , the world ’ s biggest oil importer .
The energy market impacts of the coronavirus will likely doom the $ 50 billion in additional oil and natural gas purchases that Trump was banking on as one of the few positive outcomes of his 18-month trade war with China , which resulted in slower growth in both economies , billions of dollars in new taxes for U.S. consumers , and lost markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To be sure , the virus may have read the last rites to the hoped-for energy trade , but the deal was already impossibly ambitious even before the disease suddenly upended travel and business throughout the world ’ s second biggest economy at the beginning of the year .
Under the terms of the “ phase one ” deal signed last month , China agreed to purchase an additional $ 18.5 billion in energy products this year and $ 34 billion next year—above and beyond what it was already buying to power cars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would have required a 275 percent increase in Chinese energy purchase this year and a whopping 500 percent increase over 2017 levels next year .
( Similarly aggressive expectations for increased agriculture sales to China are even more difficult to meet , since American farmers wracked by bankruptcies and lost markets would have to massively increase their spring planting in the next few weeks , even as the coronavirus decimates China ’ s short-term growth prospects . )
“ Even before the virus , these goals were completely unrealistic .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , completely divorced from the way that business and international trade works , ” said Gal Luft , an energy expert and co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security , a Washington-based think tank .
To be fair , the children were warned : The U.S. oil industry explained to the Trump administration that the energy targets were beyond the reach of even the surging American oil patch , with the extra crude shipments theoretically earmarked for China outstripping the entire projected growth of U.S. oil output .
But Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for his fantasy trade package and pulled objectives seemingly out of thin air .
( Since the deal was finalized , he has upped his imaginary ante even further , speaking of Chinese commitments to buy $ 300 billion worth of American goods . )
“ It ’ s like shooting an arrow first and then drawing a circle around it and calling it a target , ” Luft said .
An even bigger problem than U.S. supply constraints is China ’ s demand for more oil and natural gas , even before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paper , before the virus hit , China was on track to gobble up as many as 600,000 more barrels of oil per day this year , making it seem like a good market for U.S. crude oil production , gushing at record levels and looking for buyers .
But China ’ s oil refineries are largely geared to the heavier grade of crude it buys from the Middle East , not the light oil America ’ s shale patch produces .
In addition , China maintains import tariffs on U.S. crude oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war .
Finally , a lot of China ’ s current oil imports are either strategic in nature—such as those from Russia or Venezuela—or tied to long-term contracts , such as with Saudi Arabia , making it harder to ditch them for an influx of American crude .
That combination already made the United States a less-than-ideal supplier for China .
The other piece of America ’ s energy renaissance—natural gas—faced its own challenges in China .
Beijing has so far maintained even steeper tariffs on U.S. natural gas exports , redoubling the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in an already oversupplied market ; U.S. gas exports to China fell to zero after the tariffs were levied .
China , meanwhile , has ramped up its domestic production of gas and is now receiving cheap gas by pipeline from Russia , among others—narrowing the room for U.S. tankers full of liquefied gas to find a profitable way into the Chinese market .
As with oil , many of those gas deals include long-term contracts that would be hard for China to back out of just to do Trump a favor .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ both meet its existing contractual obligations and sufficiently increase its purchases from the United States , ” Fitch Solutions said in a note .
Obviously , that outlook has only gotten dimmer thanks to the impacts of the coronavirus .
Slower economic activity will almost certainly dampen China ’ s demand for gas , narrowing U.S. export options even further .
And the slowdown is rippling throughout other parts of the energy-dependent economy : China ’ s petrochemicals industry , for example , will likely require less imported feedstock ( denting some exporters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a handful of key industrial plastics ( hurting some countries that need to buy them ) .
“ The coronavirus is offering markets a taste of just how disruptive a downside scenario in China can be , ” the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said in a note .
Despite the human toll of the coronavirus , the outbreak may offer one silver lining to both Beijing and Washington : China would have been hard-pressed to meet its purchase commitments , and Trump was committed to breaking off the trade truce if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the virus is a gift to both sides because it gives them a good excuse not to implement something that was not implementable , ” Luft said .
More broadly , the much-hyped state-managed boost in U.S.-China trade in energy , agriculture , and other products was , from the start , an unlikely shift for a China that has sought for decades—and especially in recent years—to increase its economic independence , not lessen it .
China has for years obsessed over its energy security , going to great lengths to ensure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a time of crisis interfere with oil and gas imports , for example .
China has redoubled efforts to increase its food security .
More recently , China has sought to wean itself from reliance on overseas suppliers of key technologies , from semiconductors to mobile telephony .
“ They know what happened to Japan ” when the United States cut off oil supplies in 1941 , forcing Tokyo into a corner , Luft said .
“ It ’ s not their mentality to be dependent on anybody , let alone the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enemy .
The notion that China will hook itself to a country that has decided that it is no longer a friend , and be dependent on this country for food and energy , is nonsense.
” Instead , like many others—such as the European Union promising to buy more soybeans , South Korea making token concessions on cars , India swallowing trade insults to avoid an escalation—China has learned to offer Trump paper victories he can tout at rallies while buying time to get its economy in shape for the long haul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one-trick pony , everybody learns how to read you—and play you , ” Luft said .
China figured if they offered Trump some promises of commodity purchases , he ’ d call off the trade war for a year or so .
In the meantime , “ they can move in a direction they want to go .
And by then , they will be much more independent and much less vulnerable .
”

Energy trade was the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump’s just-completed pact with China, seemingly matching soaring U.S. production of oil and natural gas with bottomless Chinese demand for fuel.
Energy trade was the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump’s just-completed pact with China, seemingly matching soaring U.S. production of oil and natural gas with bottomless Chinese demand for fuel.
While it was always going to be a stretch to meet the ambitious Chinese purchase targets laid out in the agreement, the recent explosion of the coronavirus and the impact it has had on China’s economic growth have now made those grandiose energy visions completely unrealistic—just as Trump takes to the campaign trail to tout the deal’s benefits ahead of his reelection bid.
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, which has infected tens of thousands of people and killed more than 1,300 in little more than a month, seemed to have peaked—until new diagnostic techniques this week showed that the virus had infected thousands more and killed hundreds more than previously thought.
And the uptick in the disease’s virulence has been matched by growing signs of its impact on China’s and the global economy: Cargo ships are piling up outside ports full of undelivered commodities; oil and petrochemical refineries are scaling back operations due to declining demand for their products; Chinese consumer spending is anemic; and supply chains worldwide are shuddering. Air freight, a key indicator of global trade, seemed on the uptick after a dismal 2019, until it collapsed again in January, a potential harbinger of a broader slowdown in cross-border trade flows.
The International Energy Agency just underscored the dramatic impact the virus is having: For the first time since the financial crisis a decade ago, the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year, led by a precipitous fall in oil demand in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
The energy market impacts of the coronavirus will likely doom the $50 billion in additional oil and natural gas purchases that Trump was banking on as one of the few positive outcomes of his 18-month trade war with China, which resulted in slower growth in both economies, billions of dollars in new taxes for U.S. consumers, and lost markets for U.S. farmers and oil workers.
To be sure, the virus may have read the last rites to the hoped-for energy trade, but the deal was already impossibly ambitious even before the disease suddenly upended travel and business throughout the world’s second biggest economy at the beginning of the year.
Under the terms of the “phase one” deal signed last month, China agreed to purchase an additional $18.5 billion in energy products this year and $34 billion next year—above and beyond what it was already buying to power cars, planes, and factories. That would have required a 275 percent increase in Chinese energy purchase this year and a whopping 500 percent increase over 2017 levels next year. (Similarly aggressive expectations for increased agriculture sales to China are even more difficult to meet, since American farmers wracked by bankruptcies and lost markets would have to massively increase their spring planting in the next few weeks, even as the coronavirus decimates China’s short-term growth prospects.)
“Even before the virus, these goals were completely unrealistic. It’s as if children were writing those numbers, completely divorced from the way that business and international trade works,” said Gal Luft, an energy expert and co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a Washington-based think tank.
To be fair, the children were warned: The U.S. oil industry explained to the Trump administration that the energy targets were beyond the reach of even the surging American oil patch, with the extra crude shipments theoretically earmarked for China outstripping the entire projected growth of U.S. oil output. But Trump reportedly liked the sound of round numbers for his fantasy trade package and pulled objectives seemingly out of thin air. (Since the deal was finalized, he has upped his imaginary ante even further, speaking of Chinese commitments to buy $300 billion worth of American goods.)
“It’s like shooting an arrow first and then drawing a circle around it and calling it a target,” Luft said.
An even bigger problem than U.S. supply constraints is China’s demand for more oil and natural gas, even before the virus poleaxed economic activity. On paper, before the virus hit, China was on track to gobble up as many as 600,000 more barrels of oil per day this year, making it seem like a good market for U.S. crude oil production, gushing at record levels and looking for buyers.
But China’s oil refineries are largely geared to the heavier grade of crude it buys from the Middle East, not the light oil America’s shale patch produces. In addition, China maintains import tariffs on U.S. crude oil, a lingering effect of the trade war. Finally, a lot of China’s current oil imports are either strategic in nature—such as those from Russia or Venezuela—or tied to long-term contracts, such as with Saudi Arabia, making it harder to ditch them for an influx of American crude. That combination already made the United States a less-than-ideal supplier for China.
The other piece of America’s energy renaissance—natural gas—faced its own challenges in China. Beijing has so far maintained even steeper tariffs on U.S. natural gas exports, redoubling the challenges for U.S. suppliers to be competitive in an already oversupplied market; U.S. gas exports to China fell to zero after the tariffs were levied. China, meanwhile, has ramped up its domestic production of gas and is now receiving cheap gas by pipeline from Russia, among others—narrowing the room for U.S. tankers full of liquefied gas to find a profitable way into the Chinese market. As with oil, many of those gas deals include long-term contracts that would be hard for China to back out of just to do Trump a favor.
“It is unlikely that China could both meet its existing contractual obligations and sufficiently increase its purchases from the United States,” Fitch Solutions said in a note.
Obviously, that outlook has only gotten dimmer thanks to the impacts of the coronavirus. Slower economic activity will almost certainly dampen China’s demand for gas, narrowing U.S. export options even further. And the slowdown is rippling throughout other parts of the energy-dependent economy: China’s petrochemicals industry, for example, will likely require less imported feedstock (denting some exporters’ hopes) and also produce fewer of a handful of key industrial plastics (hurting some countries that need to buy them).
“The coronavirus is offering markets a taste of just how disruptive a downside scenario in China can be,” the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said in a note.
Despite the human toll of the coronavirus, the outbreak may offer one silver lining to both Beijing and Washington: China would have been hard-pressed to meet its purchase commitments, and Trump was committed to breaking off the trade truce if that happened.
“In a way, the virus is a gift to both sides because it gives them a good excuse not to implement something that was not implementable,” Luft said.
More broadly, the much-hyped state-managed boost in U.S.-China trade in energy, agriculture, and other products was, from the start, an unlikely shift for a China that has sought for decades—and especially in recent years—to increase its economic independence, not lessen it.
China has for years obsessed over its energy security, going to great lengths to ensure that the United States cannot at a time of crisis interfere with oil and gas imports, for example. China has redoubled efforts to increase its food security. More recently, China has sought to wean itself from reliance on overseas suppliers of key technologies, from semiconductors to mobile telephony.
“They know what happened to Japan” when the United States cut off oil supplies in 1941, forcing Tokyo into a corner, Luft said. “It’s not their mentality to be dependent on anybody, let alone the country that has now defined them as the enemy. The notion that China will hook itself to a country that has decided that it is no longer a friend, and be dependent on this country for food and energy, is nonsense.”
Instead, like many others—such as the European Union promising to buy more soybeans, South Korea making token concessions on cars, India swallowing trade insults to avoid an escalation—China has learned to offer Trump paper victories he can tout at rallies while buying time to get its economy in shape for the long haul.
“When you’re a one-trick pony, everybody learns how to read you—and play you,” Luft said. China figured if they offered Trump some promises of commodity purchases, he’d call off the trade war for a year or so. In the meantime, “they can move in a direction they want to go. And by then, they will be much more independent and much less vulnerable.”


foreignpolicy--2020-02-13--The 3 Most Polarizing Words in India

The 3 Most Polarizing Words in India

The 3 Most Polarizing Words in India Jai Shri Ram literally translates as “ Victory to Lord Ram , ” a popular Hindu deity .
But while this seemingly harmless phrase originated as a pious declaration of devotion in India , it is today increasingly deployed not only as a Hindu chauvinist slogan but also as a threat to anyone who dares to challenge Hindu supremacy .
Gujjar ’ s message was aimed at India ’ s 200 million Muslims—the largest religious minority in a mostly Hindu population of 1.3 billion people—who have become unwitting targets in an us-versus-them culture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) .
The latest catalyst for tensions is the new Citizenship Amendment Act ( CAA ) , which discriminates on the basis of religion .
The law grants citizenship to refugees from Afghanistan , Bangladesh , and Pakistan who are Buddhists , Christians , Hindus , Jains , Sikhs , or Zoroastrians—but not Muslims—as long as they entered India before 2015 .
Activists point out that the CAA goes against the secular principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution .
Jai Shri Ram is today increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dares to challenge Hindu supremacy .
And when coupled with a proposed national registry of citizens that could force people to prove their citizenship , the government ’ s plans could hurt the many millions of poor and illiterate Indians who don ’ t possess any documents to further their claims .
Mass protests have seized the country ’ s cities and towns since the CAA was passed on Dec. 11 ; in scenes unprecedented in modern India , thousands of demonstrators have been forming human chains , singing the national anthem , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bagh , where hundreds of local Muslim women have staged a sit-in since the start of this year , has become the center of the national movement as more and more Indians—students , professionals , activists , singers , artists—join them every day .
Two days before Gujjar walked into Shaheen Bagh , another young man , a teenager , produced a pistol near the area and shot at anti-CAA demonstrators , injuring one and terrifying hundreds .
The juvenile shooter , whom Indian law prohibits the media from naming , had apparently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what he perceived as a war for Hindu supremacy .
In a Facebook video he recorded while on his way to Shaheen Bagh , he had left instructions for his fellow warriors : “ On my final journey , cover me in saffron clothes and chant Jai Shri Ram.
” The phrase has provoked terror in the capital since the beginning of this year : On the night of Jan. 5 , a group of masked attackers affiliated with the Hindu far-right cried “ Jai Shri Ram ” as they entered Delhi ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of left-wing politics , and brutally beat up students who had been protesting against a recent fee hike .
Ram is always described as just , brave , self-sacrificing , and righteous .
In Hindi-speaking regions , Hindus have invoked Ram ’ s name for more than a century in regular greetings , in exclamation , and in folk songs .
The deity ’ s political influence goes back even further .
In the 12th century , a “ sudden rush of temples [ were ] built for Ram ” in response to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delhi in 1206 , the journalist Shoaib Daniyal points out in Scroll.in .
“ In the 17th century , for example , two Marathi Ramayans were written , one which compared Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb to Raavan [ Ram ’ s nemesis ] and the other to Raavan ’ s gluttonous brother Kumbhakarna , ” he writes .
But the phrase ’ s cultural relevance changed markedly in the last four decades , when it began to take on a different meaning .
I first heard the words while watching the late 1980s television @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national broadcaster Doordarshan .
The program became a Sunday ritual in Hindi-speaking parts of India , and it depicted Ram as an ideal , pious man with a beatific smile—until he encountered evil , which he slew on sight .
But Ram never used his special powers unless it was warranted .
“ Attacking the weak or the innocent to show your arrogance or your might doesn ’ t count as the dharma [ duty ] of the brave , ” Ram ’ s spiritual mentor , Vishwamitra , advises while awarding him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Ram now seem to have a different interpretation of dharma .
Last year , across several incidents , dozens of poor and innocent Indians were attacked because they refused to say the words Jai Shri Ram .
On June 18 , a 24-year-old man was lynched in Jharkhand ; on June 20 , a 40-year-old cleric was hit by a car in Delhi ; on June 23 , a 25-year-old cab driver was beaten up in Thane near Mumbai ; and on July 28 , a 15-year-old boy was set on fire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these attacks , the victims were Muslim , and they were asked to chant Jai Shri Ram by as few as three and as many as 30 Hindu assailants .
The slogan is deployed as effectively in violence as it is in entertainment .
Last July , as Muslims were being forced to intone Jai Shri Ram , the country seemed gripped by a viral music video ( now deleted ) on YouTube titled “ Jo Na bole Jai Sri Ram , bhej do usko kabristan ” ( Those who don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to their graveyards ) .
The reference to cemeteries made clear that the message was directed at Muslims and Christians .
Four people involved in making and uploading the video were later arrested .
There is no stopping the messages of hate , however .
On YouTube , one can now find dozens of songs glorifying Ram and denigrating minorities .
Most of them mix Hindi hate speech with electronic beats .
Some are so popular that they are requested at weddings and played in clubs .
“ Hindu Blood Hit , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 3.8 million times .
Between psychedelic repetitions of Jai Shri Ram , the singer warns India ’ s Muslims that their time is up .
Other viral songs can be geopolitical : “ Jai Shree Ram DJ Vicky Mix ” calls for a future in which “ there will continue to be a Kashmir but no Pakistan.
” But Ram ’ s imprint has spread in the years since the BJP chose him as the mascot for its project to build and cultivate a Hindu base of voters .
The center for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where a 16th-century Mughal mosque occupied what some believe to be the site of Ram ’ s birth .
Around the mid-19th century , regional Hindu organizations attempted to claim the site and build a temple to Ram on the mosque ’ s grounds .
But then , in the 1980s , the BJP and its ideological allies turned the local demand for a Ram temple at the site into a sweeping Hindu nationalist movement .
The slogan for this movement , which was led by BJP leader and then-Home Minister L.K @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The words were chanted , loud and clear , as the foundation for the temple was laid next to the mosque and bricks were loaded into trucks and trains headed for Ayodhya .
And the same words tore through the city on Dec. 6 , 1992 , as thousands of Hindu volunteers pounded the mosque with hammers and axes .
In a matter of hours , the building was razed ; riots sparked throughout India .
Jai Shri Ram now had an additional meaning : an expression of Hindu dominance and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , cries of Jai Shri Ram echoed through the Indian Parliament after the BJP was reelected with a sweeping majority , winning 303 of 543 parliamentary seats in an ugly , polarized election .
The words were used to heckle Muslim legislators as they took their oaths to uphold the Indian Constitution .
Five months later , India ’ s Supreme Court settled the country ’ s longest-running property dispute by ruling in favor of a Ram temple to be built in Ayodhya at the same site where the mosque was demolished by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ petitioners were granted 5 acres elsewhere in the city to build a mosque .
On Nov. 9 , as the government commenced arrangements for building the temple , Modi tweeted his response to the court verdict : “ May peace and harmony prevail !
” But those words seem lost amid the dog whistles sounded by senior leaders and amplified on social media with impunity .
It is no surprise then that the devotees firing bullets at Shaheen Bagh have different intentions .

“Jai Shri Ram!” Those were the words 25-year-old Kapil Gujjar shouted as he pointed his semi-automatic pistol at hundreds of unarmed women and children at Shaheen Bagh, a predominantly Muslim colony in New Delhi, on Saturday, Feb. 1. It was a cool, smog-infused afternoon, and Indians from all walks of life had gathered in a peaceful protest against a controversial new citizenship law that especially affects the country’s poor, women , and, perhaps most of all, Muslims . Gujjar fired three bullets in the air. The crowd scattered. Later, while being handcuffed by the police, Gujjar explained his motive: “In our country, only Hindus will prevail.”
“Jai Shri Ram!” Those were the words 25-year-old Kapil Gujjar shouted as he pointed his semi-automatic pistol at hundreds of unarmed women and children at Shaheen Bagh, a predominantly Muslim colony in New Delhi, on Saturday, Feb. 1. It was a cool, smog-infused afternoon, and Indians from all walks of life had gathered in a peaceful protest against a controversial new citizenship law that especially affects the country’s poor, women, and, perhaps most of all, Muslims. Gujjar fired three bullets in the air. The crowd scattered. Later, while being handcuffed by the police, Gujjar explained his motive: “In our country, only Hindus will prevail.”
Jai Shri Ram literally translates as “Victory to Lord Ram,” a popular Hindu deity. But while this seemingly harmless phrase originated as a pious declaration of devotion in India, it is today increasingly deployed not only as a Hindu chauvinist slogan but also as a threat to anyone who dares to challenge Hindu supremacy.
Gujjar’s message was aimed at India’s 200 million Muslims—the largest religious minority in a mostly Hindu population of 1.3 billion people—who have become unwitting targets in an us-versus-them culture war waged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The latest catalyst for tensions is the new Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which discriminates on the basis of religion. The law grants citizenship to refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan who are Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jains, Sikhs, or Zoroastrians—but not Muslims—as long as they entered India before 2015. Activists point out that the CAA goes against the secular principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution. Jai Shri Ram is today increasingly deployed as a threat to anyone who dares to challenge Hindu supremacy. And when coupled with a proposed national registry of citizens that could force people to prove their citizenship, the government’s plans could hurt the many millions of poor and illiterate Indians who don’t possess any documents to further their claims. Mass protests have seized the country’s cities and towns since the CAA was passed on Dec. 11; in scenes unprecedented in modern India, thousands of demonstrators have been forming human chains, singing the national anthem, and reading the constitution aloud. Shaheen Bagh, where hundreds of local Muslim women have staged a sit-in since the start of this year, has become the center of the national movement as more and more Indians—students, professionals, activists, singers, artists—join them every day.
Two days before Gujjar walked into Shaheen Bagh, another young man, a teenager, produced a pistol near the area and shot at anti-CAA demonstrators, injuring one and terrifying hundreds. The juvenile shooter, whom Indian law prohibits the media from naming, had apparently been prepared to become a martyr in what he perceived as a war for Hindu supremacy. In a Facebook video he recorded while on his way to Shaheen Bagh, he had left instructions for his fellow warriors: “On my final journey, cover me in saffron clothes and chant Jai Shri Ram.” The phrase has provoked terror in the capital since the beginning of this year: On the night of Jan. 5, a group of masked attackers affiliated with the Hindu far-right cried “Jai Shri Ram” as they entered Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, a hub of left-wing politics, and brutally beat up students who had been protesting against a recent fee hike.
People take part in protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens at Shaheen Bagh in New Delhi, on Feb. 2, the day after a shooter fired on protesters there.
Ram, the popular Hindu god, is the protagonist of the Sanskrit epic Ramayana, said to be written sometime between the seventh and third centuries B.C. In modern, mainstream depictions of the Ramayana, Ram is extolled as the embodiment of the perfect man: an exiled prince who rescues his abducted wife and destroys an evil empire before returning home to assume his rightful throne. Ram is always described as just, brave, self-sacrificing, and righteous. His followers even justify the fact that he later abandoned his wife, Sita, after commoners questioned her purity—after all, they argue, Ram’s role as king superseded his duties as a husband. He was likely only following the social mores of his era.
Ram is always described as just, brave, self-sacrificing, and righteous.
In Hindi-speaking regions, Hindus have invoked Ram’s name for more than a century in regular greetings, in exclamation, and in folk songs. The deity’s political influence goes back even further. In the 12th century, a “sudden rush of temples [were] built for Ram” in response to the establishment of the first sultanate in Delhi in 1206, the journalist Shoaib Daniyal points out in Scroll.in. “In the 17th century, for example, two Marathi Ramayans were written, one which compared Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb to Raavan [Ram’s nemesis] and the other to Raavan’s gluttonous brother Kumbhakarna,” he writes.
But the phrase’s cultural relevance changed markedly in the last four decades, when it began to take on a different meaning. I first heard the words while watching the late 1980s television adaptation of Ramayana that aired on the national broadcaster Doordarshan. The program became a Sunday ritual in Hindi-speaking parts of India, and it depicted Ram as an ideal, pious man with a beatific smile—until he encountered evil, which he slew on sight. But Ram never used his special powers unless it was warranted. “Attacking the weak or the innocent to show your arrogance or your might doesn’t count as the dharma [duty] of the brave,” Ram’s spiritual mentor, Vishwamitra, advises while awarding him with celestial weapons.
Some purported followers of Ram now seem to have a different interpretation of dharma. Last year, across several incidents, dozens of poor and innocent Indians were attacked because they refused to say the words Jai Shri Ram. On June 18, a 24-year-old man was lynched in Jharkhand; on June 20, a 40-year-old cleric was hit by a car in Delhi; on June 23, a 25-year-old cab driver was beaten up in Thane near Mumbai; and on July 28, a 15-year-old boy was set on fire in Uttar Pradesh. In each of these attacks, the victims were Muslim, and they were asked to chant Jai Shri Ram by as few as three and as many as 30 Hindu assailants.
The slogan is deployed as effectively in violence as it is in entertainment. Last July, as Muslims were being forced to intone Jai Shri Ram, the country seemed gripped by a viral music video (now deleted) on YouTube titled “Jo Na bole Jai Sri Ram, bhej do usko kabristan” (Those who don’t say Jai Shri Ram, send them to their graveyards). The reference to cemeteries made clear that the message was directed at Muslims and Christians. Four people involved in making and uploading the video were later arrested. There is no stopping the messages of hate, however. On YouTube, one can now find dozens of songs glorifying Ram and denigrating minorities. Most of them mix Hindi hate speech with electronic beats. Some are so popular that they are requested at weddings and played in clubs. “Hindu Blood Hit,” for example, has been viewed more than 3.8 million times. Between psychedelic repetitions of Jai Shri Ram, the singer warns India’s Muslims that their time is up. Other viral songs can be geopolitical: “Jai Shree Ram DJ Vicky Mix” calls for a future in which “there will continue to be a Kashmir but no Pakistan.”
Arun Govil as Lord Ram and Deepika Chikhalia as Sita in Ramanand Sagar’s TV adaptation of the epic Hindu poem Ramayana.
The 1980s television show of the Ramayana reached millions of Indians right as the BJP accelerated its project to unite Hindi-speaking Hindus around the figure of Ram. This was a bold political experiment. Although widely known as the hero of the Ramayana, which has been published in multiple languages and dialects, Ram was worshipped only selectively in India. In some parts such as Tamil Nadu, his worship elicits hostility by those who see the Ramayana’s narrative as racist toward Dravidians, the ancestral inhabitants of southern India. In West Bengal, where the majority of Hindus worship the goddesses Durga and Kali, Ram’s name doesn’t resonate widely.
But Ram’s imprint has spread in the years since the BJP chose him as the mascot for its project to build and cultivate a Hindu base of voters. The center for this project was the city of Ayodhya, where a 16th-century Mughal mosque occupied what some believe to be the site of Ram’s birth. Around the mid-19th century, regional Hindu organizations attempted to claim the site and build a temple to Ram on the mosque’s grounds. But then, in the 1980s, the BJP and its ideological allies turned the local demand for a Ram temple at the site into a sweeping Hindu nationalist movement. The slogan for this movement, which was led by BJP leader and then-Home Minister L.K. Advani, was Jai Shri Ram. The words were chanted, loud and clear, as the foundation for the temple was laid next to the mosque and bricks were loaded into trucks and trains headed for Ayodhya. And the same words tore through the city on Dec. 6, 1992, as thousands of Hindu volunteers pounded the mosque with hammers and axes. In a matter of hours, the building was razed; riots sparked throughout India. Jai Shri Ram now had an additional meaning: an expression of Hindu dominance and the BJP’s rise.
Last June, cries of Jai Shri Ram echoed through the Indian Parliament after the BJP was reelected with a sweeping majority, winning 303 of 543 parliamentary seats in an ugly, polarized election. The words were used to heckle Muslim legislators as they took their oaths to uphold the Indian Constitution. Five months later, India’s Supreme Court settled the country’s longest-running property dispute by ruling in favor of a Ram temple to be built in Ayodhya at the same site where the mosque was demolished by Hindu nationalists in 1992. The Muslim petitioners were granted 5 acres elsewhere in the city to build a mosque. On Nov. 9, as the government commenced arrangements for building the temple, Modi tweeted his response to the court verdict: “May peace and harmony prevail!” But those words seem lost amid the dog whistles sounded by senior leaders and amplified on social media with impunity. It is no surprise then that the devotees firing bullets at Shaheen Bagh have different intentions.