foreignpolicy--2020-03-28--Social Distancing Is a Privilege

Social Distancing Is a Privilege

On March 24 , Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete nationwide lockdown for 21 days—one of the strongest national measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus .
The decision marked a sharp turn .
Just a week ago , the world ’ s second-most populous country was being seen as a mysterious anomaly that had remained relatively unscathed from the deadly pandemic .
But then the math caught up .
As the lockdown began , the number of confirmed cases in the country was beginning to grow exponentially , rising to 933 by March 28 .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are fears it has come too late and that too many of the country ’ s poor and homeless will be left exposed .
The World Health Organization ( WHO ) declared the spread of COVID-19 , the disease caused by the virus , a pandemic as long ago as March 11 .
Back then , India refused to label it a health emergency , and large parts of the country continued about business as usual .
Even now , the entire country has tested fewer than 30,000 people , representing one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world .
Ramanan Laxminarayan , a leading public health expert and the director of the U.S.-based Center for Disease Dynamics , Economics , and Policy , projects that despite the lockdown , the peak of the pandemic will likely hit India by late April or early May and that around a million people will need hospital beds and critical care at that point .
This is where disaster could strike .
India has just 0.5 hospital beds per 1,000 people ( Italy has more than six times as many ) and spends just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( the United States spends 17 percent of its GDP on health care ) .
Meanwhile New Delhi has allotted large sums of money to build the world ’ s tallest statues in an obnoxious display of nationalism .
Last year , Yogi Adityanath , the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh , India ’ s most populous state , put aside $ 91 million for the construction of a statue of the Hindu deity Ram even as hundreds of people in his state had died of encephalitis in the last few years , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cylinders .
Adityanath ’ s stated aim was to build a statue taller than the 597-foot one of the freedom fighter Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel , inaugurated by Modi in 2018 , which cost $ 400 million .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
It is not just a long-standing misallocation of funds that is the problem .
Even when Modi announced his lockdown on March 24—with no mention of how people would get their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rushed to the streets in large numbers before Modi could finish his speech .
Pharmacies were swarmed with nervous faces ; social distancing was quickly forgotten .
At supermarkets , anxious families stocked up on essential commodities .
Milk and eggs disappeared from the shelves .
But while the privileged—a tiny minority in India—were stocking their refrigerators with weeks of supplies , the country ’ s daily wage workers and laborers were flocking to their hometowns , often barefoot , some with their infants tied to their backs and young children crying in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flouting curfew rules .
“ If I do not go out for a week , my children and my wife will die.
” In Mumbai , the country ’ s financial capital , some 300 migrant workers crammed themselves in food container trucks so they could reach home away from the scrutiny of baton-wielding police .
The heart-wrenching images of young men , with sweaty , bare bodies making their way out of the claustrophobic containers , made headlines on the country ’ s TV channels .
In neighboring Dharavi , Asia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 million in an area of less than a square mile , workers laughed when I asked them if they had been practicing social distancing .
As I stood outside a hovel , trying to keep some distance from people the day after Modi ’ s lockdown order was announced , even talking about social distancing felt obscene near a room of eight people crammed together with barely any space to breathe .
Ghanshyam Lal , a migrant laborer who works in a Mumbai tannery , has been feeding a family of eight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a day .
He told me he didn ’ t care about the virus as much as he did about putting food on the table .
And he worried about his wife , Asha , who was on dialysis at a government hospital and may now be booted out to make way for wealthier patients who had tested positive for the coronavirus .
“ How easy it is for the prime minister to say do not step out of your houses , ” he said .
“ If I do not go out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my wife will die.
” Lal ’ s fears are not exaggerated .
In a city with a population of 20 million , the government hospitals have only 400 ventilators and a thousand beds for intensive care .
At Mumbai ’ s Kasturba Gandhi Hospital , which is taking the bulk of patients who have tested positive for the coronavirus , doctors told me that their neighbors have distanced themselves from the doctors ’ families .
“ We are saving lives .
We are breaking down in the bathrooms while we are being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ premises , ” said one young doctor who wished to stay anonymous .
The unpreparedness of India ’ s health care and social system to deal with the pandemic is aggravated by an indifferent law enforcement that deploys brutal force against its people .
On March 25 , as the lockdown began , a 32-year-old man was beaten to death by police in West Bengal when he stepped out to buy milk for his family .
And when police are not brutalizing the poor , they are being indifferent to the migrant laborers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the other , trying to reach their families on empty stomachs and with no public transport .
Their cries are falling on deaf ears .
Rahul Musahar , an 11-year-old boy who used to work with his father collecting scrap every day , was shifted to a government hospital in Bhojpur district in Bihar this week .
Musahar had not eaten food in three days .
His mother , who is pregnant with her second child , tried desperately to feed herself and her son .
Because of the lockdown , Musahar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just enough money to survive a day , could not arrange for a meal .
Musahar died on return from the hospital , not killed by the virus but by hunger—which could potentially kill many in India if the government does not take immediate measures .
While the world was stocking up on masks and gloves , India was busy dousing communal fire stoked by its own government .
Could India have been better prepared ?
Last month , while much of the world—including next-door neighbor China—was raising the alarm about the fast-spreading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a bloody carnage in the country ’ s capital in which 54 people were killed and hundreds injured .
And all of it was spawned by hate speech by top-ranking ministers in Modi ’ s cabinet .
The city ’ s police watched on .
While the world was stocking up on masks and gloves , India was busy dousing communal fire stoked by its own government .
Thousands of families displaced in New Delhi ’ s violence—with their kin in hospitals and their livelihoods destroyed—were living in temporary relief camps in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country suddenly woke up to the threat of COVID-19 , the camps were abruptly razed to the ground .
The victims were left with no help .
A country that is already grappling with its worst unemployment rate in decades and a rising and divisive nationalism now must deal with a pandemic that will strike a major blow to its economy—especially for its so-called informal workers who have no health care , benefits , or safety nets to fall back on .
WHO has said India has a major role to play in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home to one-sixth of the world ’ s population .
And while New Delhi ’ s decision to lock down has been belated , it has the potential to minimize damage : With all forms of public transport canceled , included domestic and international airlines , travel and co-mingling will be sharply reduced .
But a bold stroke like this needs to be accompanied with a healing hand for the economically and socially disadvantaged .
The next few weeks will be crucial for all of India but especially for its poor .

On March 24, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete nationwide lockdown for 21 days—one of the strongest national measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. The decision marked a sharp turn. Just a week ago, the world’s second-most populous country was being seen as a mysterious anomaly that had remained relatively unscathed from the deadly pandemic. But then the math caught up. As the lockdown began, the number of confirmed cases in the country was beginning to grow exponentially, rising to 933 by March 28.
On March 24, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete nationwide lockdown for 21 days—one of the strongest national measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. The decision marked a sharp turn. Just a week ago, the world’s second-most populous country was being seen as a mysterious anomaly that had remained relatively unscathed from the deadly pandemic. But then the math caught up. As the lockdown began, the number of confirmed cases in the country was beginning to grow exponentially, rising to 933 by March 28.
While New Delhi has taken decisive action, there are fears it has come too late and that too many of the country’s poor and homeless will be left exposed. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, a pandemic as long ago as March 11. Back then, India refused to label it a health emergency, and large parts of the country continued about business as usual. Even now, the entire country has tested fewer than 30,000 people, representing one of the lowest testing rates in the world.
Ramanan Laxminarayan, a leading public health expert and the director of the U.S.-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy, projects that despite the lockdown, the peak of the pandemic will likely hit India by late April or early May and that around a million people will need hospital beds and critical care at that point. This is where disaster could strike. India has just 0.5 hospital beds per 1,000 people (Italy has more than six times as many) and spends just 3.7 percent of its GDP on health (the United States spends 17 percent of its GDP on health care). Meanwhile New Delhi has allotted large sums of money to build the world’s tallest statues in an obnoxious display of nationalism.
Last year, Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, put aside $91 million for the construction of a statue of the Hindu deity Ram even as hundreds of people in his state had died of encephalitis in the last few years, with key emergency facilities lacking necessary oxygen cylinders. Adityanath’s stated aim was to build a statue taller than the 597-foot one of the freedom fighter Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, inaugurated by Modi in 2018, which cost $400 million.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
It is not just a long-standing misallocation of funds that is the problem. Even when Modi announced his lockdown on March 24—with no mention of how people would get their daily supplies—his words sparked panic. People rushed to the streets in large numbers before Modi could finish his speech. Pharmacies were swarmed with nervous faces; social distancing was quickly forgotten. At supermarkets, anxious families stocked up on essential commodities. Milk and eggs disappeared from the shelves. But while the privileged—a tiny minority in India—were stocking their refrigerators with weeks of supplies, the country’s daily wage workers and laborers were flocking to their hometowns, often barefoot, some with their infants tied to their backs and young children crying in tow as police beat them mercilessly for flouting curfew rules.
“If I do not go out for a week, my children and my wife will die.”
In Mumbai, the country’s financial capital, some 300 migrant workers crammed themselves in food container trucks so they could reach home away from the scrutiny of baton-wielding police. The heart-wrenching images of young men, with sweaty, bare bodies making their way out of the claustrophobic containers, made headlines on the country’s TV channels.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
In neighboring Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum with a population of 1 million in an area of less than a square mile, workers laughed when I asked them if they had been practicing social distancing. As I stood outside a hovel, trying to keep some distance from people the day after Modi’s lockdown order was announced, even talking about social distancing felt obscene near a room of eight people crammed together with barely any space to breathe.
Ghanshyam Lal, a migrant laborer who works in a Mumbai tannery, has been feeding a family of eight on his daily wage of $3 a day. He told me he didn’t care about the virus as much as he did about putting food on the table. And he worried about his wife, Asha, who was on dialysis at a government hospital and may now be booted out to make way for wealthier patients who had tested positive for the coronavirus. “How easy it is for the prime minister to say do not step out of your houses,” he said. “If I do not go out for a week, my children and my wife will die.”
Lal’s fears are not exaggerated. In a city with a population of 20 million, the government hospitals have only 400 ventilators and a thousand beds for intensive care.
At Mumbai’s Kasturba Gandhi Hospital, which is taking the bulk of patients who have tested positive for the coronavirus, doctors told me that their neighbors have distanced themselves from the doctors’ families. “We are saving lives. We are breaking down in the bathrooms while we are being treated like untouchables outside of the hospital premises,” said one young doctor who wished to stay anonymous.
The unpreparedness of India’s health care and social system to deal with the pandemic is aggravated by an indifferent law enforcement that deploys brutal force against its people. On March 25, as the lockdown began, a 32-year-old man was beaten to death by police in West Bengal when he stepped out to buy milk for his family. And when police are not brutalizing the poor, they are being indifferent to the migrant laborers who are walking miles from one state to the other, trying to reach their families on empty stomachs and with no public transport. Their cries are falling on deaf ears. Rahul Musahar, an 11-year-old boy who used to work with his father collecting scrap every day, was shifted to a government hospital in Bhojpur district in Bihar this week. Musahar had not eaten food in three days. His mother, who is pregnant with her second child, tried desperately to feed herself and her son. Because of the lockdown, Musahar’s father, who would earn just enough money to survive a day, could not arrange for a meal. Musahar died on return from the hospital, not killed by the virus but by hunger—which could potentially kill many in India if the government does not take immediate measures.
While the world was stocking up on masks and gloves, India was busy dousing communal fire stoked by its own government.
Could India have been better prepared? Last month, while much of the world—including next-door neighbor China—was raising the alarm about the fast-spreading coronavirus, India was making global headlines for a bloody carnage in the country’s capital in which 54 people were killed and hundreds injured. And all of it was spawned by hate speech by top-ranking ministers in Modi’s cabinet. The city’s police watched on. While the world was stocking up on masks and gloves, India was busy dousing communal fire stoked by its own government.
Thousands of families displaced in New Delhi’s violence—with their kin in hospitals and their livelihoods destroyed—were living in temporary relief camps in the capital. Then, as the country suddenly woke up to the threat of COVID-19, the camps were abruptly razed to the ground. The victims were left with no help.
A country that is already grappling with its worst unemployment rate in decades and a rising and divisive nationalism now must deal with a pandemic that will strike a major blow to its economy—especially for its so-called informal workers who have no health care, benefits, or safety nets to fall back on. WHO has said India has a major role to play in containing the pandemic—after all, it is home to one-sixth of the world’s population. And while New Delhi’s decision to lock down has been belated, it has the potential to minimize damage: With all forms of public transport canceled, included domestic and international airlines, travel and co-mingling will be sharply reduced. But a bold stroke like this needs to be accompanied with a healing hand for the economically and socially disadvantaged. The next few weeks will be crucial for all of India but especially for its poor.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-28--In Delhi, First Came the Pogroms. Then Came Coronavirus.

In Delhi , First Came the Pogroms .
Then Came Coronavirus .
NEW DELHI—Lying on a torn cot inside a tent , 38-year-old Nizamuddin didn ’ t turn when a cloud of dust landed on him .
He closed his eyes and tried to recall what his home felt like .
In late February , he lost his house at the hands of Hindu nationalist mob in the Indian capital ’ s worst communal violence in decades , riots that were arguably sparked by a series of hatemongering speeches by the local leaders of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up stuck sheltering in the Eidgah displaced persons camp in New Delhi ’ s Mustafabad neighborhood , three miles from his destroyed home .
On March 18 , Nizamuddin ’ s wife , Parveena , was standing in a line outside the tent to collect scarce drinking water while their three children roamed around the camp with other kids who had lost their homes .
Many of them are traumatized .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s worst communal violence in decades was arguably sparked by a series of hatemongering speeches from the local leaders of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s governing BJP .
In a lane sandwiched between tents , under the open sky , young boys were playing ball .
A few yards away , Arshad and Ruban , an 8-year-old and 13-year-old whose names have been changed , were sitting despondently .
Arshad was tense because his father had gone out of the camp for afternoon prayers against his son ’ s wishes .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said the 8-year-old , “ and Hindus will know that he is a Muslim and will beat him up.
” He said that when his family realized that they wouldn ’ t survive or “ hold a chance in a fight against Hindus , ” they ran away from their home in Shiv Vihar neighborhood in late February .
So did Ruban ’ s family .
In the wake of the violence , the Delhi High Court asked the director of the Institute of Human Behaviour and Allied Sciences to provide a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victims who have post-traumatic stress disorder .
Wasim Qamar , who heads the medical camp in Eidgah set up by Doctors Unity Welfare Association , said that apart from a single session of counseling that was offered , they aren ’ t able to provide a psychologist or qualified professional to deal regularly with the mental health issues inside the camp .
Ruban is facing trauma after seeing the communal violence up close .
“ We ran from our home at night , ” he said , “ and every night , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get scared.
” Arshad , too , said he is struggling with his nightmares : “ I see Hindus wearing helmets and armed with swords running after my family to kill us.
” I ask : Does he survive in the dream ?
In December 2019 , Modi ’ s Bharatiya Janata Party amended India ’ s citizenship laws , which made undocumented migrants of almost all religions—except Islam—from neighboring countries such as Pakistan , Bangladesh , and Afghanistan eligible for Indian citizenship .
It is also planning to carry out an exercise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Put together , the laws could become a tool to strip millions of Indian Muslims of their citizenship .
Since December , New Delhi has become a battleground of identities and ideologies .
Hundreds of Muslims have been protesting against the citizenship law .
It was Hindu nationalist citizens and leaders angered by those protests who organized the mob that ransacked Nizamuddin ’ s street .
Meanwhile , the state ’ s complicity in the crimes against Muslims , as seen in the recent Delhi violence—during which multiple victims say that police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calls or simply turned their backs—has encouraged the mobs on the streets , allowing them to attack Muslims with a sense of impunity .
The state ’ s complicity in crimes against Muslims has encouraged the mobs on the streets .
Modi ’ s majoritarian government has shown no desire to pass any strict laws against mob violence or hate speech , doing further damage to the idea of a secular India .
Indeed , since Modi took power in 2014 , Hindu nationalism in India has been on the rise .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report by IndiaSpend found that Muslims were the target of 52 percent of attacks related to consuming beef—an offense because cows are considered holy by Hindus—from 2010 to 2017 ; 97 percent of those attacks happened after Modi took power , and 84 percent of those killed were Muslims .
Many of these attacks were shot on video , with the faces of the attackers visible , yet the mob vigilantism has gone unpunished .
The Delhi Minorities Commission , a statutory body , in its assessment report called the violence “ one-sided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done to the shops and homes of Muslims .
The panel also concluded that the displaced won ’ t “ be able to start living there any time soon.
” The recent violence in northeast Delhi has displaced hundreds of Muslim families from the neighborhoods where they had lived for generations .
But it ’ s not just Delhi .
In India , a Hindu-majority country , over 200 million Muslims are a ghettoized community , and incidents of communally motivated violence in past decades have further intensified the segregation .
In 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social anthropology and development at King ’ s College London , studied religious demography and segregation in 11 Indian cities and found that the segregation faced by Muslims in Delhi is the third-highest among those cities , only after Ahmedabad and Hyderabad .
Talking to Foreign Policy , Harsh Mander , a civil rights activist and a columnist , said that instilling fear in order to force the segregation of minority communities is the major objective of the violence .
“ You may have lived for generations in mixed colonies , but when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with their complicity , the trust and sense of security is broken , ” he said .
“ Hence , it is natural that you will seek safety in people of your own identity.
” It was on Feb. 27 , during a family gathering , that Nizamuddin learned from a panicked phone call that the mob had looted his home in New Delhi ’ s Shiv Vihar neighborhood .
He rode a motorcycle 250 miles—from a village in Uttar Pradesh—with his younger brother , Jamaluddin .
By evening , when the brothers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 people was gathered on an otherwise deserted street armed with swords and iron rods .
When the mob asked for a name , the elder brother lied , saying he was “ Raju ” —a common Hindu name .
But the younger brother gave in and told the truth .
Then , “ They asked me to unzip my pants , ” Nizamuddin recalled .
Checking whether men are circumcised has become a trademark of Hindu mobs seeking to identify Muslims before attacking them .
Nizamuddin refused , but it was too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run , the mob knocked them onto the ground , beating them until both of them fell unconscious and didn ’ t scream anymore .
“ They stopped when they thought we died , ” Nizamuddin said .
“ I thought , too , I would die.
” After lying unconscious for two hours , Nizamuddin woke up on the deserted road .
He couldn ’ t bear to look at his bloodied younger brother and ran for help .
By 7 p.m. , he was admitted to a nearby government-run hospital .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , his younger brother , Jamaluddin , was losing the battle for his life .
“ No one told me about his death till his post-mortem was completed , ” Nizamuddin recalled .
He could not even see his brother one last time nor or attend his funeral .
“ I feel like I ’ m dying from inside , ” he said .
At least 52 other people died in the violence that killed Jamaluddin—the majority of them Muslims .
When Modi announced a nationwide lockdown amid growing numbers of coronavirus cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ camp were asked to leave immediately .
But Nizamuddin could not eulogize his brother for long .
He is now unemployed and severely injured , and the worldwide public health crisis caused by the coronavirus has made his family ’ s life even more precarious .
On March 24 , Modi announced a nationwide lockdown amid growing numbers of coronavirus cases in India .
The next morning , the families in the camp were asked to leave immediately .
A representative of the Delhi Waqf Board , a government body that looks after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told Foreign Policy , “ We can ’ t keep so many people in such little space .
What if one of them would test positive for the virus ?
” Nizamuddin was out of options ; with no money in hand , he was forced to move back to his looted home .
For him , it is a scary reminder of bad memories now .
“ We were forcefully evicted from the camp due to some viral disease , ” he told me over the phone .
“ Upon our return @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with any of our neighbors.
” He hasn ’ t received any monetary help to restart his life , apart from a bag of rice and some flour .
“ When it ends , I don ’ t know what we will do , ” Nizamuddin said .
“ I can not earn anymore .
”

NEW DELHI—Lying on a torn cot inside a tent, 38-year-old Nizamuddin didn’t turn when a cloud of dust landed on him. He closed his eyes and tried to recall what his home felt like.
NEW DELHI—Lying on a torn cot inside a tent, 38-year-old Nizamuddin didn’t turn when a cloud of dust landed on him. He closed his eyes and tried to recall what his home felt like.
In late February, he lost his house at the hands of Hindu nationalist mob in the Indian capital’s worst communal violence in decades, riots that were arguably sparked by a series of hatemongering speeches by the local leaders of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party. Nizamuddin ended up stuck sheltering in the Eidgah displaced persons camp in New Delhi’s Mustafabad neighborhood, three miles from his destroyed home.
On March 18, Nizamuddin’s wife, Parveena, was standing in a line outside the tent to collect scarce drinking water while their three children roamed around the camp with other kids who had lost their homes. Many of them are traumatized.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
The Indian capital’s worst communal violence in decades was arguably sparked by a series of hatemongering speeches from the local leaders of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s governing BJP.
In a lane sandwiched between tents, under the open sky, young boys were playing ball. A few yards away, Arshad and Ruban, an 8-year-old and 13-year-old whose names have been changed, were sitting despondently.
Arshad was tense because his father had gone out of the camp for afternoon prayers against his son’s wishes. “My father has a long beard,” said the 8-year-old, “and Hindus will know that he is a Muslim and will beat him up.”
He said that when his family realized that they wouldn’t survive or “hold a chance in a fight against Hindus,” they ran away from their home in Shiv Vihar neighborhood in late February. So did Ruban’s family.
In the wake of the violence, the Delhi High Court asked the director of the Institute of Human Behaviour and Allied Sciences to provide a sufficient number of qualified professionals to help victims who have post-traumatic stress disorder.
Wasim Qamar, who heads the medical camp in Eidgah set up by Doctors Unity Welfare Association, said that apart from a single session of counseling that was offered, they aren’t able to provide a psychologist or qualified professional to deal regularly with the mental health issues inside the camp.
Ruban is facing trauma after seeing the communal violence up close. “We ran from our home at night,” he said, “and every night, I’m reminded of it and I get scared.” Arshad, too, said he is struggling with his nightmares: “I see Hindus wearing helmets and armed with swords running after my family to kill us.”
I ask: Does he survive in the dream?
“Sometimes.”
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
In December 2019, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party amended India’s citizenship laws, which made undocumented migrants of almost all religions—except Islam—from neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan eligible for Indian citizenship. It is also planning to carry out an exercise that forces everyone to prove their nationality. Put together, the laws could become a tool to strip millions of Indian Muslims of their citizenship.
Since December, New Delhi has become a battleground of identities and ideologies. Hundreds of Muslims have been protesting against the citizenship law. It was Hindu nationalist citizens and leaders angered by those protests who organized the mob that ransacked Nizamuddin’s street.
Meanwhile, the state’s complicity in the crimes against Muslims, as seen in the recent Delhi violence—during which multiple victims say that police didn’t react to their panicked calls or simply turned their backs—has encouraged the mobs on the streets, allowing them to attack Muslims with a sense of impunity.
The state’s complicity in crimes against Muslims has encouraged the mobs on the streets.
Modi’s majoritarian government has shown no desire to pass any strict laws against mob violence or hate speech, doing further damage to the idea of a secular India.
Indeed, since Modi took power in 2014, Hindu nationalism in India has been on the rise. So have been communally motivated attacks. A report by IndiaSpend found that Muslims were the target of 52 percent of attacks related to consuming beef—an offense because cows are considered holy by Hindus—from 2010 to 2017; 97 percent of those attacks happened after Modi took power, and 84 percent of those killed were Muslims. Many of these attacks were shot on video, with the faces of the attackers visible, yet the mob vigilantism has gone unpunished.
The Delhi Minorities Commission, a statutory body, in its assessment report called the violence “one-sided, well-planned.” The most damage was done to the shops and homes of Muslims. The panel also concluded that the displaced won’t “be able to start living there any time soon.”
The recent violence in northeast Delhi has displaced hundreds of Muslim families from the neighborhoods where they had lived for generations. But it’s not just Delhi. In India, a Hindu-majority country, over 200 million Muslims are a ghettoized community, and incidents of communally motivated violence in past decades have further intensified the segregation.
In 2017, Raphael Susewind, a lecturer in social anthropology and development at King’s College London, studied religious demography and segregation in 11 Indian cities and found that the segregation faced by Muslims in Delhi is the third-highest among those cities, only after Ahmedabad and Hyderabad.
Talking to Foreign Policy, Harsh Mander, a civil rights activist and a columnist, said that instilling fear in order to force the segregation of minority communities is the major objective of the violence. “You may have lived for generations in mixed colonies, but when you are attacked by your neighbors or with their complicity, the trust and sense of security is broken,” he said. “Hence, it is natural that you will seek safety in people of your own identity.”
It was on Feb. 27, during a family gathering, that Nizamuddin learned from a panicked phone call that the mob had looted his home in New Delhi’s Shiv Vihar neighborhood. He rode a motorcycle 250 miles—from a village in Uttar Pradesh—with his younger brother, Jamaluddin. By evening, when the brothers reached Delhi, a mob of about 50 people was gathered on an otherwise deserted street armed with swords and iron rods.
When the mob asked for a name, the elder brother lied, saying he was “Raju”—a common Hindu name. But the younger brother gave in and told the truth. Then, “They asked me to unzip my pants,” Nizamuddin recalled. Checking whether men are circumcised has become a trademark of Hindu mobs seeking to identify Muslims before attacking them. Nizamuddin refused, but it was too late.
After a failed attempt to run, the mob knocked them onto the ground, beating them until both of them fell unconscious and didn’t scream anymore. “They stopped when they thought we died,” Nizamuddin said. “I thought, too, I would die.”
After lying unconscious for two hours, Nizamuddin woke up on the deserted road. He couldn’t bear to look at his bloodied younger brother and ran for help.
By 7 p.m., he was admitted to a nearby government-run hospital. In the intensive care unit next door, his younger brother, Jamaluddin, was losing the battle for his life.
“No one told me about his death till his post-mortem was completed,” Nizamuddin recalled. He could not even see his brother one last time nor or attend his funeral. “I feel like I’m dying from inside,” he said. At least 52 other people died in the violence that killed Jamaluddin—the majority of them Muslims.
When Modi announced a nationwide lockdown amid growing numbers of coronavirus cases, the families in the displaced persons camp were asked to leave immediately.
But Nizamuddin could not eulogize his brother for long. He is now unemployed and severely injured, and the worldwide public health crisis caused by the coronavirus has made his family’s life even more precarious.
On March 24, Modi announced a nationwide lockdown amid growing numbers of coronavirus cases in India. The next morning, the families in the camp were asked to leave immediately. A representative of the Delhi Waqf Board, a government body that looks after the management of shrines and mosques, told Foreign Policy, “We can’t keep so many people in such little space. What if one of them would test positive for the virus?”
Nizamuddin was out of options; with no money in hand, he was forced to move back to his looted home. For him, it is a scary reminder of bad memories now. “We were forcefully evicted from the camp due to some viral disease,” he told me over the phone. “Upon our return, we didn’t meet eyes with any of our neighbors.”
He hasn’t received any monetary help to restart his life, apart from a bag of rice and some flour. “When it ends, I don’t know what we will do,” Nizamuddin said. “I cannot earn anymore.”


foreignpolicy--2020-03-28--Our Top Weekend Reads

Our Top Weekend Reads

Senior members of the Democratic Party are calling for U.S. President Donald Trump to ease sanctions on countries badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic .
Meanwhile , many governments are implementing draconian quarantine measures that border on totalitarian .
Some of those measures have roots in colonial history .
And while China shouldn ’ t be blamed for creating the virus , its initial response to the outbreak helped it spread across the world .
Senior U.S. Democrats are urging the Trump administration to temporarily reduce sanctions on several countries , citing the need to provide medical supplies and humanitarian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Detsch reports .
2 .
Without Mass Testing , the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Keep Spreading The key to South Korea ’ s success at slowing the spread of the coronavirus has been an early push toward mass testing .
If other countries are serious about stopping the virus , they should do the same , Devi Sridhar writes .
3 .
How Governments Got Their Quarantine Powers Many former colonies of the British Empire have laws on the books that give their governments sweeping quarantine powers .
While such measures are often required @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is questionable , Justin Ling writes .
4 .
Yes , Blame China for the Virus Critics insist that U.S. leaders ’ focus on blaming China for the coronavirus , dubbing it the “ Wuhan virus , ” is racist .
But while China did not create the virus , the government ’ s initial missteps are directly responsible for its global transmission and uncontrolled spread , Paul D. Miller writes .
5 .
Sorry , but the Virus Shows Why There Won ’ t Be Global Action on Climate Change Climate activists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments to combat the coronavirus can be applied to environmental action , but several barriers still stand in the way , Foreign Policy ’ s Jason Bordoff writes .

Senior members of the Democratic Party are calling for U.S. President Donald Trump to ease sanctions on countries badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
Senior members of the Democratic Party are calling for U.S. President Donald Trump to ease sanctions on countries badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile, many governments are implementing draconian quarantine measures that border on totalitarian. Some of those measures have roots in colonial history.
And while China shouldn’t be blamed for creating the virus, its initial response to the outbreak helped it spread across the world.
Here are Foreign Policy’s top weekend reads.
A woman wearing a mask in Iran
Senior U.S. Democrats are urging the Trump administration to temporarily reduce sanctions on several countries, citing the need to provide medical supplies and humanitarian support, Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch reports.
Medical workers wearing protective gear take samples from a driver with suspected symptoms of coronavirus at a test facility in Goyang, north of Seoul, on Feb. 29.
The key to South Korea’s success at slowing the spread of the coronavirus has been an early push toward mass testing. If other countries are serious about stopping the virus, they should do the same, Devi Sridhar writes.
A passenger wearing a face mask as a protective measure looks at two police officers at the Madrid-Barajas Adolfo Suarez Airport in Barajas on March 20, 2020.
Many former colonies of the British Empire have laws on the books that give their governments sweeping quarantine powers. While such measures are often required to maintain social stability, their constitutionality is questionable, Justin Ling writes.
Posters of Chinese President Xi Jinping are plastered on the ground during protests at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, on Sept. 26, 2019.
Critics insist that U.S. leaders’ focus on blaming China for the coronavirus, dubbing it the “Wuhan virus,” is racist. But while China did not create the virus, the government’s initial missteps are directly responsible for its global transmission and uncontrolled spread, Paul D. Miller writes.
School students gather to demand action on climate change in Sydney, Australia, on Sept. 20, 2019.
Climate activists hope that the steps taken by national governments to combat the coronavirus can be applied to environmental action, but several barriers still stand in the way, Foreign Policy’s Jason Bordoff writes.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-28--The Boycott on Uzbek Cotton Needs to End

The Boycott on Uzbek Cotton Needs to End On March 6 , Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a landmark decree that eliminated production quotas in the country ’ s cotton industry , abolishing a system that was first instituted in the 1920s under the Gosplan system of the Soviet Union .
That quota system—an integral part of the Uzbek economy for nearly a century—contributed to systemic human rights violations by encouraging the use of forced labor .
The Uzbek cotton harvest is the world ’ s largest seasonal labor mobilization , bringing more than 2 million workers to the fields @ @ @ @ @ @ @ substantial recent progress in labor reforms , more than 100,000 individuals are estimated to have been forced to work in the fields last year .
Uzbekistan ’ s forced-labor problem is just one part of a complex legacy of the cotton harvest and its role in the country ’ s state-led economy .
For decades , the career prospects of state officials across Uzbekistan ’ s districts were largely dependent on their ability to hit cotton production quotas set by the central government .
Local governors would mobilize public-sector workers and university students @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patriotic duty .
Most Uzbek families have pictures in their family albums of parents and grandparents helping to pick cotton in the fields .
For many Uzbeks , there remains nostalgia about the shared experience of manual labor , but the quota system created perverse incentives and power dynamics—local officials would often force adults and even children into the fields to work unpaid .
Given this long history and the scale of the rights violations , the recent steps by the Uzbek government to modernize its cotton industry represent one of the most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Today , real progress has been made , but Uzbekistan ’ s cotton industry has yet to draw sufficient foreign investment , in large part due to an international boycott on Uzbek cotton that remains in place .
Should investment fail to materialize , it will jeopardize the privatization of the cotton industry and hurt prospects for the country ’ s wider reform program.Uzbekistan ’ s forced-labor problem is just one part of a complex legacy of the cotton harvest and its role in the country ’ s state-led economy .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s cotton industry speak to the ambition of Mirziyoyev ’ s reforms , which have encompassed significant macroeconomic reforms such as the liberalization of the currency , fiscal reforms such as the overhaul of the tax system , political reforms such as the creation of new powers for the legislature , and social reforms such as greater protections for free speech and the media .
Within this wider program , the reforms to the cotton industry have been among the most successful .
The International Labour Organization ( ILO ) , which has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Uzbek government ’ s reform efforts through initiatives funded by the European Union , the United States , and Switzerland , determined in its review of the 2019 harvest that “ systematic forced labour did not occur ” and that “ systemic child labour is no longer used during the cotton harvest in Uzbekistan.
” These findings are borne out by data .
More than 1.75 million Uzbeks were mobilized in the 2019 harvest , down from a staggering 3.4 million pickers in 2015 .
The decrease in the number of laborers reflects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of mechanization in the harvest .
More importantly , the ILO noted a major reduction in the use of forced labor .
Estimates suggest that 102,000 people were forced to partake in the harvest last year , down from 448,000 four years prior ; the share of forced labor as part of the total labor force has more than halved from 14 percent to 6 percent .
In the same period , the average compensation offered to laborers for each kilogram of picked cotton has seen a sevenfold increase , from 200 som @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates ) to up to 1,400 som ( $ 0.15 at 2019 rates ) , making this kind of work more attractive for local laborers in the country ’ s rural areas .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
On top of its efforts to curb forced labor practices , the Mirziyoyev government has taken a multifaceted approach in its efforts to improve the economic viability and social value of the Uzbek cotton industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ farmers to cultivate their land according to market demand , but also boosted investment in new technology to increase crop yields and productivity , including modern irrigation systems and equipment to mechanize the harvesting process .
The restructuring also includes the formation of clusters that seek to create a longer value chain within the Uzbek cotton industry , developing capacities for textile and garment production , with an eye to exports .
Finally , local governments have launched public education campaigns , collaborating with local activists in order to help Uzbek citizens—especially those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rights .
While much work remains to be done in order to fully eliminate forced labor from the Uzbek cotton industry , the progress made over the past few years is significant and represents a victory for human-rights campaigners who have long pressured the government to take action on this issue .
This includes the Cotton Campaign , which , since 2007 , has played a central role in raising international awareness about the conditions faced by many Uzbek agricultural laborers .
Additionally , more than 300 brands and retailers are currently signatories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international boycott of Uzbek-sourced cotton and textiles .
These firms include Spanish fashion retailer Zara , American department store Macy ’ s , German sports-apparel maker Adidas , and Swedish-Dutch furniture-maker Ikea .
The scale of this boycott no doubt compelled the government towards reform .
The scale of this boycott no doubt compelled the government towards reform .
In October 2019 , the leadership of the Cotton Campaign met with Sardor Umurzakov , the Uzbek minister for investments , to discuss the county ’ s progress in cotton labor reform—an instance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just a few years ago .
While much of the pressure on the Mirziyoyev government is coming from grassroots activists , including local campaigners , there is also an important economic incentive for reform .
The export of cotton and cotton-based textiles is worth about $ 1.3 billion dollars to the Uzbek economy each year , accounting for 15 percent of total exports .
Export revenues are supposed to help fund the country ’ s economic modernization and diversification—a key pillar of the government ’ s economic program .
But the state of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors , and new capital inflows are sorely needed .
This economic incentive is further buttressed by powerful geopolitical considerations .
Currently , Uzbekistan is forced to sell most cotton and textile products at relatively low margins to China in addition to countries that are part of the Commonwealth of Independent States , deepening economic dependency on the bloc , which is dominated by Russia .
The failure to end the international boycott on Uzbek cotton and draw in new investors could hobble the sector ’ s long-term development , which would in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reforms .
A cautionary tale can be seen in neighboring Kazakhstan , which has lost much of the momentum for economic and political reform after a failed privatization drive burned relationships with global investors .
Uzbekistan is a key partner for the West in Central Asia .
It is the most populous country and among the fastest-growing economies in the region , and both the European Union and the United States have launched new strategies in the past year that aim to support Uzbek exports .
The European Union is currently negotiating a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Uzbekistan that would , among other things , help make it easier for Uzbek producers to export textiles to the EU .
Human-rights campaigners have now arrived at a crossroads , and they must decide if an end to the cotton boycott is justified in order to consolidate the gains they have made and further aid the development of a fairer and more just Uzbek economy .
This will no doubt be a difficult decision to make .
The boycott has been institutionalized and is central to the work of many organizations and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact that the country ’ s forced labor practices have not yet been fully abolished makes the decision more fraught.Multinational companies must be encouraged to resume purchases of Uzbek cotton and cotton-derived products .
But in order to capitalize on the progress marked by Mirziyoyev ’ s reforms , multinational companies must be encouraged to resume purchases of Uzbek cotton and cotton-derived products , and , further , to invest in the modernization of the industry .
The future of Uzbekistan depends on it .
Importantly , activists don ’ t need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play a leading role in this next phase of the country ’ s development by monitoring supply chains and encouraging corporate social responsibility , such as environmental management and investment in local communities , all to ensure businesses behave ethically .
These efforts could be modeled on “ fair trade ” supply chains that have boosted supplier and consumer confidence in the coffee and cocoa industries in both Latin America and Africa .
The Uzbek government could continue to play a constructive role , too .
It could encourage the transition from boycott @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts to engage in honest dialogue with both local and foreign activists .
It also needs to create space for third-party actors to monitor multinational corporations , which will require making it easier for foreign campaigners to establish nongovernmental organizations in the country and to engage with the ILO and local activists on the ground .
Dialogue and engagement between all of the relevant actors is essential to achieving the full eradication of forced labor in Uzbekistan .
Authoritarian states have been downplaying numbers .
That won ’ t last .
The boycott @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this point , but it is now counterproductive and only serves to limit the ability of crucial economic stakeholders from becoming more engaged in Uzbekistan ’ s development .
The relaxation of the boycott , along with the adoption of a new , cooperative framework to protect labor rights in Uzbekistan ’ s cotton industry , would make clear to Uzbek policymakers and economic stakeholders that Western human-rights advocacy is not at odds with Western support for economic development .
In this way , rewarding reform in Uzbekistan ’ s cotton industry is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could improve prospects for reform in Central Asia at large .
At a time when civil-society and human-rights activists are increasingly using boycotts , divestment campaigns , sanctions , and other economic pressure tactics as part of their activism , it is more important than ever to recognize when to roll back economic pressure so that those same points of leverage can be used to push reforms successfully forward .

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Oybek Shaykhov

On March 6, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a landmark decree that eliminated production quotas in the country’s cotton industry, abolishing a system that was first instituted in the 1920s under the Gosplan system of the Soviet Union. That quota system—an integral part of the Uzbek economy for nearly a century—contributed to systemic human rights violations by encouraging the use of forced labor. The Uzbek cotton harvest is the world’s largest seasonal labor mobilization , bringing more than 2 million workers to the fields to pick cotton by hand. Despite substantial recent progress in labor reforms, more than 100,000 individuals are estimated to have been forced to work in the fields last year.
On March 6, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a landmark decree that eliminated production quotas in the country’s cotton industry, abolishing a system that was first instituted in the 1920s under the Gosplan system of the Soviet Union. That quota system—an integral part of the Uzbek economy for nearly a century—contributed to systemic human rights violations by encouraging the use of forced labor. The Uzbek cotton harvest is the world’s largest seasonal labor mobilization, bringing more than 2 million workers to the fields to pick cotton by hand. Despite substantial recent progress in labor reforms, more than 100,000 individuals are estimated to have been forced to work in the fields last year.
Uzbekistan’s forced-labor problem is just one part of a complex legacy of the cotton harvest and its role in the country’s state-led economy. For decades, the career prospects of state officials across Uzbekistan’s districts were largely dependent on their ability to hit cotton production quotas set by the central government. Local governors would mobilize public-sector workers and university students, while also emphasizing cotton-picking as a patriotic duty. Most Uzbek families have pictures in their family albums of parents and grandparents helping to pick cotton in the fields. For many Uzbeks, there remains nostalgia about the shared experience of manual labor, but the quota system created perverse incentives and power dynamics—local officials would often force adults and even children into the fields to work unpaid. Given this long history and the scale of the rights violations, the recent steps by the Uzbek government to modernize its cotton industry represent one of the most significant labor reform efforts in the world. Today, real progress has been made, but Uzbekistan’s cotton industry has yet to draw sufficient foreign investment, in large part due to an international boycott on Uzbek cotton that remains in place. Should investment fail to materialize, it will jeopardize the privatization of the cotton industry and hurt prospects for the country’s wider reform program.Uzbekistan’s forced-labor problem is just one part of a complex legacy of the cotton harvest and its role in the country’s state-led economy.
The efforts being made to restructure Uzbekistan’s cotton industry speak to the ambition of Mirziyoyev’s reforms, which have encompassed significant macroeconomic reforms such as the liberalization of the currency, fiscal reforms such as the overhaul of the tax system, political reforms such as the creation of new powers for the legislature, and social reforms such as greater protections for free speech and the media. Within this wider program, the reforms to the cotton industry have been among the most successful. The International Labour Organization (ILO), which has been providing technical assistance to support the Uzbek government’s reform efforts through initiatives funded by the European Union, the United States, and Switzerland, determined in its review of the 2019 harvest that “systematic forced labour did not occur” and that “systemic child labour is no longer used during the cotton harvest in Uzbekistan.”
These findings are borne out by data. More than 1.75 million Uzbeks were mobilized in the 2019 harvest, down from a staggering 3.4 million pickers in 2015. The decrease in the number of laborers reflects both relaxed quotas and the increased use of mechanization in the harvest. More importantly, the ILO noted a major reduction in the use of forced labor. Estimates suggest that 102,000 people were forced to partake in the harvest last year, down from 448,000 four years prior; the share of forced labor as part of the total labor force has more than halved from 14 percent to 6 percent. In the same period, the average compensation offered to laborers for each kilogram of picked cotton has seen a sevenfold increase, from 200 som ($0.02 at 2015 free market rates) to up to 1,400 som ($0.15 at 2019 rates), making this kind of work more attractive for local laborers in the country’s rural areas.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
On top of its efforts to curb forced labor practices, the Mirziyoyev government has taken a multifaceted approach in its efforts to improve the economic viability and social value of the Uzbek cotton industry. The government has not only enabled farmers to cultivate their land according to market demand, but also boosted investment in new technology to increase crop yields and productivity, including modern irrigation systems and equipment to mechanize the harvesting process. The restructuring also includes the formation of clusters that seek to create a longer value chain within the Uzbek cotton industry, developing capacities for textile and garment production, with an eye to exports. Finally, local governments have launched public education campaigns, collaborating with local activists in order to help Uzbek citizens—especially those living in rural areas—learn and exercise their rights.
While much work remains to be done in order to fully eliminate forced labor from the Uzbek cotton industry, the progress made over the past few years is significant and represents a victory for human-rights campaigners who have long pressured the government to take action on this issue. This includes the Cotton Campaign, which, since 2007, has played a central role in raising international awareness about the conditions faced by many Uzbek agricultural laborers. Additionally, more than 300 brands and retailers are currently signatories to the Uzbek Cotton Pledge, an international boycott of Uzbek-sourced cotton and textiles. These firms include Spanish fashion retailer Zara, American department store Macy’s, German sports-apparel maker Adidas, and Swedish-Dutch furniture-maker Ikea. The scale of this boycott no doubt compelled the government towards reform.
The scale of this boycott no doubt compelled the government towards reform. In October 2019, the leadership of the Cotton Campaign met with Sardor Umurzakov, the Uzbek minister for investments, to discuss the county’s progress in cotton labor reform—an instance of direct dialogue that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
While much of the pressure on the Mirziyoyev government is coming from grassroots activists, including local campaigners, there is also an important economic incentive for reform. The export of cotton and cotton-based textiles is worth about $1.3 billion dollars to the Uzbek economy each year, accounting for 15 percent of total exports. Export revenues are supposed to help fund the country’s economic modernization and diversification—a key pillar of the government’s economic program. But the state of the cotton industry has mostly deterred would-be investors, and new capital inflows are sorely needed.
This economic incentive is further buttressed by powerful geopolitical considerations. Currently, Uzbekistan is forced to sell most cotton and textile products at relatively low margins to China in addition to countries that are part of the Commonwealth of Independent States, deepening economic dependency on the bloc, which is dominated by Russia. The failure to end the international boycott on Uzbek cotton and draw in new investors could hobble the sector’s long-term development, which would in turn stymie economic development and discourage further reforms. A cautionary tale can be seen in neighboring Kazakhstan, which has lost much of the momentum for economic and political reform after a failed privatization drive burned relationships with global investors.
Uzbekistan is a key partner for the West in Central Asia. It is the most populous country and among the fastest-growing economies in the region, and both the European Union and the United States have launched new strategies in the past year that aim to support Uzbek exports. The European Union is currently negotiating a new Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Uzbekistan that would, among other things, help make it easier for Uzbek producers to export textiles to the EU.
Human-rights campaigners have now arrived at a crossroads, and they must decide if an end to the cotton boycott is justified in order to consolidate the gains they have made and further aid the development of a fairer and more just Uzbek economy. This will no doubt be a difficult decision to make. The boycott has been institutionalized and is central to the work of many organizations and activists. For these campaigners, the fact that the country’s forced labor practices have not yet been fully abolished makes the decision more fraught.Multinational companies must be encouraged to resume purchases of Uzbek cotton and cotton-derived products.
But in order to capitalize on the progress marked by Mirziyoyev’s reforms, multinational companies must be encouraged to resume purchases of Uzbek cotton and cotton-derived products, and, further, to invest in the modernization of the industry. The future of Uzbekistan depends on it.
Importantly, activists don’t need to end their work completely; they can play a leading role in this next phase of the country’s development by monitoring supply chains and encouraging corporate social responsibility, such as environmental management and investment in local communities, all to ensure businesses behave ethically. These efforts could be modeled on “fair trade” supply chains that have boosted supplier and consumer confidence in the coffee and cocoa industries in both Latin America and Africa.
The Uzbek government could continue to play a constructive role, too. It could encourage the transition from boycott to responsible trade by continuing its good-faith efforts to engage in honest dialogue with both local and foreign activists. It also needs to create space for third-party actors to monitor multinational corporations, which will require making it easier for foreign campaigners to establish nongovernmental organizations in the country and to engage with the ILO and local activists on the ground. Dialogue and engagement between all of the relevant actors is essential to achieving the full eradication of forced labor in Uzbekistan.
Read More Law enforcement officers wearing face masks in Kazakhstan Law enforcement officers wearing face masks in Kazakhstan Central Asian States Can’t Hide the Coronavirus Any Longer Authoritarian states have been downplaying numbers. That won’t last. Argument | Nathan Paul Southern, Lindsey Kennedy Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets children waving Indian flags as he arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets children waving Indian flags as he arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit. India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia Beijing’s attempts to encircle New Delhi are being systematically reversed. Analysis | Derek Grossman Visitors to the Dobbins Outlook view the lights of Phoenix, which is now the fifth-largest city in the United States. Visitors to the Dobbins Outlook view the lights of Phoenix, which is now the fifth-largest city in the United States. Arizona Is Not Running Out of Water or Workers The state will remain a destination for foreign investment due to a skilled workforce, leadership in water conservation, and low tax burdens. Response | Danny Seiden
The boycott was a useful means of arriving at this point, but it is now counterproductive and only serves to limit the ability of crucial economic stakeholders from becoming more engaged in Uzbekistan’s development. The relaxation of the boycott, along with the adoption of a new, cooperative framework to protect labor rights in Uzbekistan’s cotton industry, would make clear to Uzbek policymakers and economic stakeholders that Western human-rights advocacy is not at odds with Western support for economic development. In this way, rewarding reform in Uzbekistan’s cotton industry is an opportunity to send a signal that could improve prospects for reform in Central Asia at large. At a time when civil-society and human-rights activists are increasingly using boycotts, divestment campaigns, sanctions, and other economic pressure tactics as part of their activism, it is more important than ever to recognize when to roll back economic pressure so that those same points of leverage can be used to push reforms successfully forward.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-28--The Coronavirus Is the Biggest Emerging Markets Crisis Ever

We used to think that the 2007-2008 financial crisis set the standard for a savage global shock .
But that crisis took more than 12 months to spread from the overbuilt suburbs of California and southern Spain to the financial centers of the world .
The coronavirus pandemic has taken just three months to engulf first China and now Europe and North America .
As it has swept west it has triggered an economic crisis whose violence is set to exceed anything we have previously witnessed .
The global shock has an uneven chronology .
In the West it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the large emerging markets of the world economy—the likes of Brazil , Argentina , sub-Saharan Africa , India , Thailand , and Malaysia—the virus has yet to arrive at full strength .
For them , the financial shock wave is running ahead of the disease .
Back to back , the two crises threaten to create an overwhelming maelstrom for emerging markets whose impact on the world economy will be far greater than any rogue U.S. president or trade war .
With their populations at risk , their public finances stretched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many emerging market states and developing countries face a huge challenge .
Will they have the resources to ride out the challenge ?
And if not , where will they look for outside assistance in an increasingly divided and multipolar world in which the United States , the European Union , and China have all been through an unprecedented shutdown ?
At the head of the list of vulnerable countries is South Africa .
The virus count in South Africa is heading rapidly towards a tipping point .
Its health system is stretched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population of 7.7 million living with HIV .
A lockdown has been declared .
The military are being called out .
Meanwhile , the rand is collapsing and South Africa ’ s sovereign debt has been cut by the ratings agencies to junk status .
In Brazil , another of the superstars of the globalization era , President Jair Bolsonaro ’ s inner circle are infected .
The currency was reeling even before Bolsonaro decided to discard any strategic approach to the virus .
Chile , Thailand , Turkey have all been knocked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restructuring has been blown off course .
India ’ s stock market is plunging , its exchange rate has slumped and its banks are under pressure .
Meanwhile , its booming tech industry and call centers are paralyzed .
( If your insurance claim in the United States is held up , don ’ t be surprised .
The back-office workers in Bengaluru who normally process your paperwork don ’ t have the laptops that would enable them to continue working from home during India ’ s massive lockdown . )
The shock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock markets and government bonds .
It has hit commodities too .
One of the main triggers for the big sell-off came on March 6 , when oil talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia broke down .
Since then the relentless dumping by the main producers has driven prices down .
The high-cost upstarts in the United States ’ shale fields are their intended victim .
But spare a thought for the other oil exporters .
Think of desperately poor Nigeria .
Think of fragile Algeria , where oil and gas account for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic To understand the factors at play in this giant unwinding of investment in emerging markets , consider a business proposition that was iconic of 21st-century globalization : A big-name corporation in the emerging world would offer $ 500 million in corporate bonds offering a yield slightly above those available in the crowded U.S. market .
The size of the issue meant it was included in a influential international index of bonds such as J.P. Morgan ’ s Corporate Emerging Market Bond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used by institutional investors in the West to diversify their portfolios .
Fund managers would happily take the higher yield on offer from Asian and Latin American corporations whose balance sheets were often more conservatively managed than their daredevil Western counterparts .
The emerging market borrower benefited from the margin between U.S. funding costs and the rates of return to be earned in fast-growing economies in Asia or Latin America .
At the same time , the currencies in which the emerging-market borrower operated would likely appreciate against the dollar , eroding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the deal you would never need to set foot in the United States itself .
Huge volumes of dollar-denominated credit circulate outside the United States .
Deals such as this are done in places such as Dubai , Singapore , and Hong Kong , key nodes in the global exchange of dollar claims and liabilities .
The flag carriers of this globalized world were the likes of Emirates and Cathay , huge international airlines with no domestic market to call their own .
Between 2007 and 2019 the value of internationally traded emerging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 500 billion to $ 2.3 trillion .
And , over a similar period , foreign investors bought up one-quarter of the local currency sovereign bonds issued by emerging-market governments , helping to pay among other things for impressive new infrastructure .
Observers of the world economy have been warning for some time that this global debt mountain harbors risks .
This is particularly true for so-called frontier borrowers , high-risk low-income countries , whose commercial hard-currency debt tripled over the five years to 2019 to more than $ 200 billion .
At the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lowest-income countries in the world were already in debt distress .
Now the entire logic of emerging-market investing has gone into reverse .
As investors everywhere run for safety , the dollar has surged , making dollar debts more expensive .
Commodity prices have tanked .
With China , Europe , and the United States shut down , exporters of manufactured goods and commodities have no one to sell to .
Hardly surprising that the stock markets from Jakarta to Sao Paulo are in free fall .
Emirates , the iconic airline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the past week , gigantic fiscal and monetary efforts have breathed a flicker of life into stock markets .
The sell-off has been too massive for investors not to hunt for bargains .
A huge injection of dollar liquidity has pushed the dollar off its highs .
But the actual recession in the world ’ s developed economies has only just begun , and the pandemic has not even arrived in full force in the emerging markets yet .
The Coronavirus War Economy Will Change the World When societies shift their economies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t just help them survive a crisis—it alters them forever .
The pandemic is not the first shock that emerging markets have recently faced .
In recent decades , the gigantic flow of investment and trade that has interconnected the world economy as never before has been subject to repeated interruption .
There was the dangerous miniature crisis in China in 2015 , when the stock market crashed , the currency slid , and $ 1 trillion fled the country .
A year earlier , oil prices and other commodity prices sagged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ producers .
For many emerging markets , the general slowdown began in 2013 with the so-called taper tantrum , when rumors of a tightening in U.S. Federal Reserve policy had money sloshing back to the United States in search of higher interest rates .
Ever since , many emerging market currencies have been on the skids .
The prelude to the taper tantrum was the huge wave of dollar liquidity unleashed on the world economy by the Fed during the tenure of Chair Ben Bernanke .
That began with the financial crisis of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notable exception of South Korea , were generally spared the banking crises of that year .
The shock for them came in the form of what was up to that point the largest and most sudden collapse in global trade .
2020 will easily outdo it .
What rescued emerging markets in 2008 was among other things the gigantic stimulus delivered by Beijing .
China launched a credit expansion of wartime proportions , confirming the role that it had increasingly played since the early 2000s as an engine of global growth .
China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an earlier phase of turmoil that spanned the period between the Asian financial crisis of 1997 , Russia ’ s implosion in 1998 , and Argentina ’ s meltdown in 2001 .
The crisis in Argentina was particularly severe , resulting in the closure of the entire national banking system , mass rioting , and the evacuation of the humiliated president by helicopter .
Since the 1990s , in short , as much as the emerging markets have benefited from globalization , they have also had to deal with intense volatility .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Argentina deeply .
What we have witnessed in recent months , however , is unprecedented , because it is a comprehensive and almost indiscriminate sell-off on a gigantic scale .
There is a playbook for an external shock of this kind .
It isn ’ t what we used to call the Washington Consensus , the pristine free-market version of 1990s globalization .
That approach was buried for good in the wake of 2008 .
Measures that might once have been considered scandalous , such as capital controls to limit the inflow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been approved not only by desperate national governments , but by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) .
In the summer of 2019 no lesser authority than the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , the international club of central bankers , issued a frank summary of how highly globalized emerging markets have learned to deal with financial risks .
This advice had three components .
First , national governments should use large foreign reserves to supply dollars to their financial systems and slow an excessive devaluation of their currencies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the balance sheets of corporations—banks , financial funds , and industrial corporations such as oil companies—that are large enough by themselves to upset the national economy .
Finally , as a way of stanching an excessive capital movement , the BIS , like the IMF , admits that capital controls may be necessary .
For the BIS and IMF to be endorsing capital controls is , as the Economist remarked , a bit like the Vatican giving its blessing to birth control ; removing capital controls was the totemic policy of globalization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the evidence of recent decades is undeniable .
The risks of unlimited financial integration are simply too great , especially in an era in which the Fed , the European Central Bank , and the Bank of Japan are engaging in massively expansive monetary policy .
Though neither the BIS or the IMF say so in so many words , these are in fact precisely the kinds of tools that Beijing has used to manage the rise of the Chinese economy since the 1990s .
This is the “ Beijing Consensus ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Chinese have set a high standard , and the current crisis puts the model to a stern test .
Many emerging markets have followed the Chinese example in accumulating large foreign currency reserves , although South Africa and Turkey in particular are thinly armed in light of their outstanding debt obligations .
As for the recommendation to police risks in corporate balance sheets—so-called macroprudential management—that is always a tough proposition in political terms .
Banks are influential and politically well connected .
Huge state-owned corporations such as Eskom in South Africa , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mexico generate risks that are hard to manage .
Finally , resorting to capital controls when a country is under pressure is a risky business , because it may spook the market and further escalate the movement of capital that it is trying to calm .
The emerging markets ’ situation is made even harder to manage by the fact that financial markets in London and Wall Street are gyrating and the major economies of the world are either in , or just barely escaped , free fall .
In a world riding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what is the point of strength on which emerging markets should anchor themselves ?
Given the crises in the West , one might assume the West ’ s economic policymakers were exclusively focused on problems at home .
But the interest of the West and the United States in particular in globalization is huge .
In recent years , emerging markets have contributed ever more to global economic growth .
In 2017 the firms in the S & P 500 generated 44 percent of their sales outside the United States .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the risk of financial contagion—a viral metaphor that is suddenly very apt—is real .
If the efforts by major economies to contain the pandemic are hampered by a financial crisis , that would both protract the humanitarian catastrophe and slow the process of restoring the global economy .
What can the West do ?
Declaring a trade peace would help , as would getting the economies of Europe and the United States back on their feet .
But those are medium-term projects .
The urgent requirement , given the kind of financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2020 , is to ensure that emerging markets can meet their needs for dollar funding and defend attacks on their exchange rates—especially with the U.S. dollar , in which their corporations have borrowed billions—without exhausting their financial reserves .
During the previous financial crisis , the two main means for channeling dollar liquidity to emerging markets were the Fed and the IMF .
In 2009 , the Fed offered Mexico , Brazil , South Korea , and other countries liquidity swap lines under which the central banks credited each other with rations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dollars could thus be passed on to the financial system of the recipients .
In recent weeks those swap lines have been restored , and Brazil , Mexico and South Korea are once again the three major emerging markets selected for inclusion .
The action taken so far has stanched the spectacular rise of the dollar .
But Mexico continues to be under extreme stress .
In its case the only option may be more direct assistance from the United States , to which the Mexican economy is umbilically attached .
Brazil , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of their size , the fact that their policymakers enjoy the confidence of their counterparts in the United States , and because of the potential for blowback to the U.S. economy .
Among other members of the G-20 , it is surprising , given its size and the sophistication of its policymaking , that Indonesia was not included this time around .
We do not know what debates have gone on inside the Fed , but it would seem likely that India , Turkey , South Africa , and Thailand were ruled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their finances , doubts about the autonomy of their central banks , their limited interconnection with the United States , and their ability to deploy other tools such as exchange controls to limit outflows .
Other than direct support by the Fed , the IMF remains the last resort .
After the controversy stirred up by its interventions in the Asian financial crises of the late 1990s , the IMF underwent a profound crisis of legitimacy .
Its intrusions into the sovereignty of states such as Indonesia were deeply resented .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ list of borrowers had shrunk to a handful .
Its budget was cut and its staff was shrinking .
There was even talk of abolishing the IMF altogether .
The crisis of 2008 saved the fund .
For those outside the charmed circle of dollar liquidity provided by the Fed , the IMF rolled out a range of programs to provide further funding .
To enable it to do so was one of the first major tasks of the G-20 , which agreed at its second-ever leaders ’ summit in London in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s funding to $ 750 billion .
Today , the IMF , under new leadership , is readying itself to offer those funds if necessary .
Who will be its first client ?
One might have expected a queue to form—but there will be no urgency among potential borrowers , most of whom will likely consider a trip to the IMF a humiliating ordeal .
The first in line will likely be the poorest and most desperate “ frontier markets.
” Sub-Saharan Africa may well face a new debt crisis like that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the early 2000s .
Others may wait for longer than is good for them to apply for help .
Hence the urgent calls from development economists for the IMF to issue $ 500 billion in Special Drawing Rights ( SDRs ) .
The SDR issued by the IMF is the closest thing we have to a universally acceptable global currency not tied to a national central bank .
Giving credits of SDRs to those under greatest stress would provide immediate relief .
And if the rich countries that do not need the SDRs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they would significantly increase its overall firepower .
Beyond the need to cushion acute financial stress , what emerging markets really need is a restoration of business as usual in the world economy .
For that , the Europeans and Americans must rescue themselves .
But there is now a third key party in the global economy : China .
Having successfully achieved a grip on the virus , China appears to be exiting the economic crisis sooner than either Europe or the United States .
It has rapidly rewritten the script @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus in January .
It is rolling out medical aid to other countries .
But can it do more ?
What can it do in economic and financial terms ?
What is striking so far is how quiet the economic news about China has been .
Though the crisis started there , the Chinese financial system has been carefully shielded by the People ’ s Bank of China .
The Chinese currency has been relatively stable .
This is a huge blessing for emerging markets .
The only thing that would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be the dollar surging and the renminbi falling at the same time .
They depend for their competitiveness on the balance of those two currencies .
Both China and the United States are major markets .
Commodities are priced in dollars , and so , too , is funding .
But if the Chinese financial system has so far been relatively immune to the panic , what has been missing is the kind of spectacular economic boost arranged by Beijing in 2008 .
The battle against the virus has been conducted in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s war.
” Financial stimulus , including special lending by policy banks amounted to no more than $ 430 billion , less than either the United States or Germany has mobilized .
Of course , the regime may be biding its time , regaining its balance after the shock of the medical emergency .
But there is no doubt that Beijing is also more constrained than it was 12 years ago .
Not only is controlling new outbreaks of the virus a delicate task .
There is also the fragile state of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of stimulus .
Huge risks are buried within China ’ s overgrown shadow banks and its bloated real-estate sector .
Developers such as the hugely indebted Evergrande are disasters waiting to happen .
Beijing may need to prioritize the health of its banks before it can press the economy ’ s accelerator pedal .
It also needs to consider the accumulation of relatively unproductive infrastructure that has burdened its economy with debt .
And the People ’ s Bank of China will be mindful of the dramatic flight of money with which it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it lost one-quarter of its giant reserves and was forced to dramatically tighten controls .
Even then , it needed the help of the Fed , in the form of an accommodating interest-rate policy on the part of then Chair Janet Yellen .
The Fed under its current chair , Jerome Powell , has been nothing but generous in its response to the crisis so far .
U.S. interest rates are effectively at zero and credit is being pumped vigorously .
That relieves pressure on Beijing to keep its interest rates high .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be unwise to assume that any stimulus on its part would be flanked by cooperation on the part of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump .
The Trump administration seems more interested in pinning the blame for the pandemic on China .
Given these constraints , it would be vain to expect China in 2020 to provide the locomotive force to pull the world economy out of recession .
Indeed , China may find itself dealing with its own global debt crisis in microcosm .
Prior to 2020 , China had established @ @ @ @ @ @ @ developing world .
According to pre-crisis estimates , China had made foreign direct investment and direct loans equivalent to roughly 1.5 percent of global gross domestic product .
Lending under the Belt and Road Initiative since 2013 had run to several hundred billion dollars .
China was unusual precisely for its willingness to lend to poor countries which will be among the hardest-hit by the global downturn .
How Beijing decides to treat that debt will be a telling test of the kind of hegemony to which it aspires .
Since the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets have flourished in a world in which they could arbitrage between an ocean of dollar funding , ample consumer demand in the United States , and China ’ s booming growth machine .
Even before the coronavirus struck , that world was coming apart .
The Belt and Road Initiative , Huawei , the South China Sea , trade wars , the politics of climate change and decarbonization—a whole series of wedge issues were forcing painful choices , and not just between the United States and China .
Malaysia resentfully rejected the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the palm oil business .
Brazil , while its farmers profited from the soybean war between China and the United States , was locked in a war of words with France over the Amazon rainforest .
Even if we can get through the next few months of acute threat remotely intact , the coronavirus shock will leave daunting problems of reconstruction .
The medium-term outlook for emerging markets depends critically on how the world economy is put back together again .

We used to think that the 2007-2008 financial crisis set the standard for a savage global shock. But that crisis took more than 12 months to spread from the overbuilt suburbs of California and southern Spain to the financial centers of the world. The coronavirus pandemic has taken just three months to engulf first China and now Europe and North America. As it has swept west it has triggered an economic crisis whose violence is set to exceed anything we have previously witnessed.
We used to think that the 2007-2008 financial crisis set the standard for a savage global shock. But that crisis took more than 12 months to spread from the overbuilt suburbs of California and southern Spain to the financial centers of the world. The coronavirus pandemic has taken just three months to engulf first China and now Europe and North America. As it has swept west it has triggered an economic crisis whose violence is set to exceed anything we have previously witnessed.
The global shock has an uneven chronology. In the West it was the virus that triggered the financial crisis. In the large emerging markets of the world economy—the likes of Brazil, Argentina, sub-Saharan Africa, India, Thailand, and Malaysia—the virus has yet to arrive at full strength. For them, the financial shock wave is running ahead of the disease. Back to back, the two crises threaten to create an overwhelming maelstrom for emerging markets whose impact on the world economy will be far greater than any rogue U.S. president or trade war.
With their populations at risk, their public finances stretched, and financial markets in turmoil, many emerging market states and developing countries face a huge challenge. Will they have the resources to ride out the challenge? And if not, where will they look for outside assistance in an increasingly divided and multipolar world in which the United States, the European Union, and China have all been through an unprecedented shutdown?
An Indian health worker wearing a protective suit sprays disinfectant inside a Delhi Transport Corporation bus to help stem the spread of the coronavirus in New Delhi on March 15.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a business leaders event in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017.