foreignpolicy--2020-07-24--In Belarus, an Unlikely Trio Challenges Lukashenko

In Belarus , an Unlikely Trio Challenges Lukashenko Welcome to While You Weren ’ t Looking , Foreign Policy ’ s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news .
Here ’ s what we ’ re watching this week : Three women unite to challenge Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko ahead of the Aug. 9 presidential election , what to make of talks over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam , and a U.S. fighter jet causes a near miss in Syrian airspace .
If you would like to receive While You Weren ’ t Looking in your inbox on Fridays , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aleksandr Lukashenko is often described as Europe ’ s last dictator and for good reason .
For over a quarter of a century , the former pig farm manager has deftly navigated his country ’ s precarious position between Europe and Russia while maintaining a tight grip thanks to Soviet-style governance where arbitrary arrests , collective farming , and the KGB persist .
Lukashenko now faces his greatest challenge to date , as an unlikely trio of women have united to challenge him in the presidential election scheduled for Aug. 9 .
Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s apparent disregard for the impact of COVID-19 , Belarusians lined up for hours to sign petitions to qualify opposition candidates for the race .
Predictably , two of the main opposition candidates , the blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky and the former banker Viktor Babariko , have already been arrested and remain imprisoned .
A third , former Ambassador to the United States Valery Tsepkalo , was prevented from registering .
But the story did not end there .
Tikhanovsky ’ s wife , the language teacher Svetlana Tikhanovskaya , picked up her husband @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unexpectedly able to register her candidacy with the Central Electoral Commission .
She has joined forces with Tsepkalo ’ s wife , Veronika Tsepkalo , and Babariko ’ s campaign manager , Maria Kolesnikova , to form the new , all-female face of the Belarusian opposition .
Elections are neither free nor fair in Belarus , and Lukashenko ’ s sixth term in office is all but guaranteed .
But the public groundswell of support for the opposition has exposed his growing unpopularity and could precipitate a brutal crackdown .
Tikhanovskaya , whose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already sent her children abroad after receiving threats .
Female activists in Belarus often face gender-based reprisals , including threats of having their children placed in state custody , according to a recent Amnesty International report .
Lukashenko has faced unrest in the past , mostly confined to the capital of Minsk and quickly suppressed .
This time , the persistence and the fact that protests have spread to smaller towns and cities once considered to be the core of Lukashenko ’ s base make things different , said Artyom Shraibman , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposition supporters and 17 journalists have been arrested since May .
Undeterred , thousands of people turned out to support Tikhanovskaya at a rally in the small city of Barysau on Thursday .
In a bid to shore up his power , Lukashenko reshuffled his cabinet in June , stacking it with officials with ties to the security services .
“ It ’ s pretty obvious that he will have to rely more on force and on the Siloviki [ people connected to the military and security services ] , ” Shraibman said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any peaceful resolution here , ” said Franak Viacorka , a Belarusian journalist .
Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 prompted Minsk to rethink its dependence on Moscow , as Lukashenko began to pursue a rapprochement with the West .
A series of recent diplomatic breakthroughs with Washington , including an agreement to exchange ambassadors for the first time in over a decade , could now be thrown into question .
“ Lukashenko is digging his diplomatic grave now with his own hands , ” Shraibman said .
Nile dam dispute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Sudan have agreed to resume talks over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project on the Blue Nile , which Cairo and Khartoum fear could limit their access to vital water supplies .
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the countries had reached a “ major common understanding which paves the way for a breakthrough agreement ” but did not provide further details after Tuesday ’ s discussions , mediated by the African Union .
While negotiations over plans for the dam have stoked tensions in East Africa , they have also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In this exclusive , officials told Foreign Policy ’ s Robbie Gramer that they fear the Trump administration is siding with Egypt in the dispute and is weighing withholding some aid to Ethiopia .
Near miss over Syria .
Several people on an Iranian passenger jet were reportedly injured when the plane was forced to swerve and drop abruptly to avoid a U.S. fighter jet as it flew over Syrian airspace on Thursday .
Videos shared by an Iranian state news agency showed passengers screaming , with one man apparently unconscious on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for U.S. Central Command said on Thursday that a F-15 jet had conducted a “ standard visual inspection ” of the Mahan Air plane , adding that it was done at “ a safe distance of approximately 1,000 meters.
” The incident comes as Tehran is already on edge following a series of fires and explosions at factories and military installations across the country , which Iranian officials have suggested could be acts of sabotage .
Abbas Mousavi , a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry , said the country was investigating the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and political measures.
” Also this week , Iran ’ s supreme leader , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , renewed threats to retaliate against the United States over the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani in January .
Egypt ’ s next move in Libya .
On Monday , the Egyptian parliament unanimously authorized military intervention in Libya , setting the stage for a potential clash with Turkey in the proxy war .
The authorization did not specify exactly where the troops would be deployed , but a statement made reference to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a reference to neighboring Libya .
Egypt , Russia , and the United Arab Emirates have thrown their support behind the renegade Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar , who ended his assault on Tripoli last month .
In January , Turkey deployed troops to Libya in support of the embattled U.N.-backed Government of National Accord , which proved decisive in turning the tide of the conflict .
On Thursday , a Turkish presidential spokesperson described the Egyptian authorization as “ counterproductive ” and a “ dangerous military adventure.
” Hungary ’ s press freedom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closer to complete control over the country ’ s media landscape .
Szabolcs Dull , the editor in chief of the country ’ s most widely read news site , Index.hu , was fired on Wednesday , putting the site ’ s independence in jeopardy .
In March , the businessman Miklos Vaszily , who is closely aligned with Prime Minister Viktor Orban , acquired a 50 percent stake in the site ’ s advertising business .
Vaszily previously transformed the independent news site Origo into a pro-government mouthpiece .
On Friday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 60 people—announced that they would resign en masse in protest .
Ireland ’ s hate crimes legislation .
People of color in Ireland report experiencing some of the highest rates of racial harassment in Europe , yet hate crimes prosecutions are low .
That ’ s because Ireland is one of few Western countries without any effective laws to distinguish attacks motivated by religious or racial hatred .
The one law on the books—regarding inciting violence based on hatred—is extremely difficult to prosecute : As of 2019 , only five people had been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Global Black Lives Matter protests have now fueled calls for new hate crimes laws in Ireland .
The government formed last month said it plans to introduce new legislation , a move supported by the country ’ s main political parties .
Controversy over Nazi artifact in Uruguay .
A Nazi-era giant bronze sculpture of an eagle with a swastika in its talons is set to soon go on auction in Uruguay , but a U.S. holocaust research center has urged the authorities in Uruguay to stop the sale .
The center suggests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or educational institution to prevent it from falling into the hands of white supremacists in the growing international trade of Third Reich artifacts .
The eagle was recovered by private investors in 2006 after a two-year effort to salvage it from the Graf Spee , a German warship scuttled in port at Montevideo in 1939 .
It is currently housed in a warehouse owned by the government and has been the subject of fierce debate over who can claim ownership .
In 2014 , the country ’ s supreme court ruled that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be worth $ 26 million , were ever to be sold , the profits should be split between the government and the company that paid for its recovery .
Key to release .
A gunman took 13 people hostage on a bus in the Ukrainian city of Lutsk on Tuesday .
His demand ?
That President Volodymyr Zelensky recommend the Ukrainian public watch a 2005 documentary film about animal rights narrated by Joaquin Phoenix .
The 12-hour standoff was brought to an end after Zelensky posted a video to his Facebook page saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ film Earthlings.
” The video was subsequently deleted , although copies were widely distributed online .
The hostages were released unharmed , and the gunman was detained .
That ’ s it for this week .
For more from FP , visit ForeignPolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to While You Weren’t Looking, Foreign Policy’s weekly newsletter focused on non-coronavirus news.
Here’s what we’re watching this week: Three women unite to challenge Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko ahead of the Aug. 9 presidential election, what to make of talks over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and a U.S. fighter jet causes a near miss in Syrian airspace.
If you would like to receive While You Weren’t Looking in your inbox on Fridays, please sign up here.
Lukashenko Faces Biggest Challenge Yet
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko is often described as Europe’s last dictator and for good reason. For over a quarter of a century, the former pig farm manager has deftly navigated his country’s precarious position between Europe and Russia while maintaining a tight grip thanks to Soviet-style governance where arbitrary arrests, collective farming, and the KGB persist. Lukashenko now faces his greatest challenge to date, as an unlikely trio of women have united to challenge him in the presidential election scheduled for Aug. 9.
Fed up with economic stagnation and Lukashenko’s apparent disregard for the impact of COVID-19, Belarusians lined up for hours to sign petitions to qualify opposition candidates for the race. Predictably, two of the main opposition candidates, the blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky and the former banker Viktor Babariko, have already been arrested and remain imprisoned. A third, former Ambassador to the United States Valery Tsepkalo, was prevented from registering.
But the story did not end there. Tikhanovsky’s wife, the language teacher Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, picked up her husband’s campaign and last week was unexpectedly able to register her candidacy with the Central Electoral Commission. She has joined forces with Tsepkalo’s wife, Veronika Tsepkalo, and Babariko’s campaign manager, Maria Kolesnikova, to form the new, all-female face of the Belarusian opposition.
Elections are neither free nor fair in Belarus, and Lukashenko’s sixth term in office is all but guaranteed. But the public groundswell of support for the opposition has exposed his growing unpopularity and could precipitate a brutal crackdown. Tikhanovskaya, whose husband is still in prison, has already sent her children abroad after receiving threats. Female activists in Belarus often face gender-based reprisals, including threats of having their children placed in state custody, according to a recent Amnesty International report.
Lukashenko has faced unrest in the past, mostly confined to the capital of Minsk and quickly suppressed. This time, the persistence and the fact that protests have spread to smaller towns and cities once considered to be the core of Lukashenko’s base make things different, said Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst. At least 700 opposition supporters and 17 journalists have been arrested since May. Undeterred, thousands of people turned out to support Tikhanovskaya at a rally in the small city of Barysau on Thursday.
In a bid to shore up his power, Lukashenko reshuffled his cabinet in June, stacking it with officials with ties to the security services. “It’s pretty obvious that he will have to rely more on force and on the Siloviki [people connected to the military and security services],” Shraibman said. “I don’t see any peaceful resolution here,” said Franak Viacorka, a Belarusian journalist.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 prompted Minsk to rethink its dependence on Moscow, as Lukashenko began to pursue a rapprochement with the West. A series of recent diplomatic breakthroughs with Washington, including an agreement to exchange ambassadors for the first time in over a decade, could now be thrown into question. “Lukashenko is digging his diplomatic grave now with his own hands,” Shraibman said.
What We’re Following
Nile dam dispute sows confusion. Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have agreed to resume talks over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project on the Blue Nile, which Cairo and Khartoum fear could limit their access to vital water supplies. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the countries had reached a “major common understanding which paves the way for a breakthrough agreement” but did not provide further details after Tuesday’s discussions, mediated by the African Union.
While negotiations over plans for the dam have stoked tensions in East Africa, they have also sown confusion within the U.S. government. In this exclusive, officials told Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer that they fear the Trump administration is siding with Egypt in the dispute and is weighing withholding some aid to Ethiopia.
Near miss over Syria. Several people on an Iranian passenger jet were reportedly injured when the plane was forced to swerve and drop abruptly to avoid a U.S. fighter jet as it flew over Syrian airspace on Thursday. Videos shared by an Iranian state news agency showed passengers screaming, with one man apparently unconscious on the floor of the aircraft. A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command said on Thursday that a F-15 jet had conducted a “standard visual inspection” of the Mahan Air plane, adding that it was done at “a safe distance of approximately 1,000 meters.”
The incident comes as Tehran is already on edge following a series of fires and explosions at factories and military installations across the country, which Iranian officials have suggested could be acts of sabotage. Abbas Mousavi, a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said the country was investigating the incident and would “take necessary legal and political measures.” Also this week, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, renewed threats to retaliate against the United States over the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani in January.
Egypt’s next move in Libya. On Monday, the Egyptian parliament unanimously authorized military intervention in Libya, setting the stage for a potential clash with Turkey in the proxy war. The authorization did not specify exactly where the troops would be deployed, but a statement made reference to a “western front”—widely interpreted as a reference to neighboring Libya. Egypt, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates have thrown their support behind the renegade Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who ended his assault on Tripoli last month.
In January, Turkey deployed troops to Libya in support of the embattled U.N.-backed Government of National Accord, which proved decisive in turning the tide of the conflict. On Thursday, a Turkish presidential spokesperson described the Egyptian authorization as “counterproductive” and a “dangerous military adventure.”
Keep an Eye On
Hungary’s press freedom dwindles. The Hungarian government is edging closer to complete control over the country’s media landscape. Szabolcs Dull, the editor in chief of the country’s most widely read news site, Index.hu, was fired on Wednesday, putting the site’s independence in jeopardy. In March, the businessman Miklos Vaszily, who is closely aligned with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, acquired a 50 percent stake in the site’s advertising business.
Vaszily previously transformed the independent news site Origo into a pro-government mouthpiece. On Friday, around half of Index.hu’s staff—some 60 people—announced that they would resign en masse in protest.
Ireland’s hate crimes legislation. People of color in Ireland report experiencing some of the highest rates of racial harassment in Europe, yet hate crimes prosecutions are low. That’s because Ireland is one of few Western countries without any effective laws to distinguish attacks motivated by religious or racial hatred. The one law on the books—regarding inciting violence based on hatred—is extremely difficult to prosecute: As of 2019, only five people had been convicted in the past 30 years.
Global Black Lives Matter protests have now fueled calls for new hate crimes laws in Ireland. The government formed last month said it plans to introduce new legislation, a move supported by the country’s main political parties.
Controversy over Nazi artifact in Uruguay. A Nazi-era giant bronze sculpture of an eagle with a swastika in its talons is set to soon go on auction in Uruguay, but a U.S. holocaust research center has urged the authorities in Uruguay to stop the sale. The center suggests that it be given to a museum or educational institution to prevent it from falling into the hands of white supremacists in the growing international trade of Third Reich artifacts.
The eagle was recovered by private investors in 2006 after a two-year effort to salvage it from the Graf Spee, a German warship scuttled in port at Montevideo in 1939. It is currently housed in a warehouse owned by the government and has been the subject of fierce debate over who can claim ownership. In 2014, the country’s supreme court ruled that if the item, which is estimated to be worth $26 million, were ever to be sold, the profits should be split between the government and the company that paid for its recovery.
Odds and Ends
Key to release. A gunman took 13 people hostage on a bus in the Ukrainian city of Lutsk on Tuesday. His demand? That President Volodymyr Zelensky recommend the Ukrainian public watch a 2005 documentary film about animal rights narrated by Joaquin Phoenix. The 12-hour standoff was brought to an end after Zelensky posted a video to his Facebook page saying, “Everyone should watch the 2005 film Earthlings.” The video was subsequently deleted, although copies were widely distributed online. The hostages were released unharmed, and the gunman was detained.
That’s it for this week.
For more from FP, visit ForeignPolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to newsletters@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-24--Was China’s Houston Consulate Trying to Steal the Coronavirus Vaccine?

Was China ’ s Houston Consulate Trying to Steal the Coronavirus Vaccine ?
China may have been using its now-closed consulate in Houston as a base of operations for industrial espionage as it seeks to be the first to hit the market with a vaccine for the novel coronavirus , Trump administration officials indicated on Friday .
The Houston facility is near the largest medical complex in the world and a bevy of research universities and critical infrastructure projects .
Officials said the consulate has been used at least 50 times in the past 10 years to help recruit members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s effort to target top Chinese and foreign experts from around the world in cutting-edge fields to bring their skills back to Beijing .
In recent years , China has made a concerted effort to leap ahead in scientific research and technology by targeting Chinese nationals and foreign experts .
Chinese Consulate officials in Houston had been directly involved in communications with researchers and guided them on what information to collect , the officials said .
“ From where I sit and you look at what happened with the corona outbreak in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very clear about their intent to be the first to the market with a vaccine , and the medical connections here aren ’ t lost on me , ” a senior State Department official told reporters on Friday .
“ The medical connection in Houston is also pretty specific.
” It was not immediately clear what trade secrets China was able to target from the facility .
On Friday , China retaliated for the closure of its U.S. consulate , ordered by the State Department on Tuesday , by ordering the closure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S. officials did not clarify whether Chinese consular officers would leave the Houston facility by the Friday deadline .
Also on Friday , the U.S. effort to push back against Chinese spying took another step forward , after American authorities arrested a fugitive Chinese researcher and uniformed officer of China ’ s Air Force who was hunkered down in the Chinese consulate in San Francisco .
Juan Tang is likely to appear in U.S. District Court on Friday , after the FBI earlier this week arrested three other individuals charged with visa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s People ’ s Liberation Army .
Like other consular facilities , the Houston consulate had been long used as a base of operations for Chinese intelligence services , officials said , because of their status as sovereign territory within the United States .
But a senior intelligence official said that science and technology intelligence collectors from the Houston area were “ particularly aggressive and particularly successful.
” Earlier this month , FBI Director Christopher Wray said that the agency opens a new Chinese espionage case approximately every 10 hours .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shan Shi , was found guilty of conspiring to steal trade secrets from a Texas company that makes drilling equipment for the oil industry .
Shi , a naturalized U.S. citizen , was acquitted of conspiring to conduct economic espionage on behalf of China .
Also last year , three scientists were ousted from MD Anderson , one of the world ’ s leading cancer care centers , after the National Institutes of Health raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest or unreported foreign income among a handful of faculty members .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made public , but investigative reports made reference to China and Chinese institutions .
More recently , the United Kingdom and United States have blamed Russian digital intruders for targeting coronavirus vaccine research , including the so-called Cozy Bear hackers linked to 2016 cyberattacks against the Democratic National Committee .
“ Their No .
1 mission is our technology and our research , ” said James Olson , a former CIA chief of counterintelligence and now a professor at Texas A & M University .
“ They have a very insatiable appetite for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they have , because they ’ ve decided it ’ s much easier to steal it than to get it on their own.
” In recent years , Texas has become a hotbed for perceived or potential Chinese espionage against U.S. interests .
Last month , Foreign Policy reported that the Trump administration had opted not to block a Chinese company with links to the People ’ s Liberation Army from building a wind farm near Laughlin Air Force Base , the U.S. military ’ s largest hub for pilot training .
Earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ted Cruz and John Cornyn , along with Rep. Will Hurd , asked Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to provide a classified briefing on whether the project would infringe upon Air Force flight training routes .
But even with President Donald Trump amping up his anti-China rhetoric in the runup to the consular closures , some Democrats in Congress said that the White House had gone easy on China on key strategic issues , including backing off on actions against the telecommunications companies ZTE and Huawei , and initially trying to stop sanctions against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kong .
“ Clearly what the president is trying to do after cozying up to President Xi [ Jinping ] for a long time , he ’ s decided that he ’ s going to play tough guy with China , especially with respect to blaming them for the spread of the coronavirus , ” Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen told Foreign Policy .
“ On the one hand the president wants to beat his chest and talk tough now about China , but all his actions , at least in the areas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simply been essentially appeasing President Xi and the government of China , ” Van Hollen said .

China may have been using its now-closed consulate in Houston as a base of operations for industrial espionage as it seeks to be the first to hit the market with a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, Trump administration officials indicated on Friday.
China may have been using its now-closed consulate in Houston as a base of operations for industrial espionage as it seeks to be the first to hit the market with a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, Trump administration officials indicated on Friday.
The Houston facility is near the largest medical complex in the world and a bevy of research universities and critical infrastructure projects. Officials said the consulate has been used at least 50 times in the past 10 years to help recruit members of the Thousand Talents Program, China’s effort to target top Chinese and foreign experts from around the world in cutting-edge fields to bring their skills back to Beijing.
In recent years, China has made a concerted effort to leap ahead in scientific research and technology by targeting Chinese nationals and foreign experts. Chinese Consulate officials in Houston had been directly involved in communications with researchers and guided them on what information to collect, the officials said.
“From where I sit and you look at what happened with the corona outbreak in China in 2019, they have been very clear about their intent to be the first to the market with a vaccine, and the medical connections here aren’t lost on me,” a senior State Department official told reporters on Friday. “The medical connection in Houston is also pretty specific.” It was not immediately clear what trade secrets China was able to target from the facility.
On Friday, China retaliated for the closure of its U.S. consulate, ordered by the State Department on Tuesday, by ordering the closure of the U.S. consulate in Chengdu, China. U.S. officials did not clarify whether Chinese consular officers would leave the Houston facility by the Friday deadline.
Also on Friday, the U.S. effort to push back against Chinese spying took another step forward, after American authorities arrested a fugitive Chinese researcher and uniformed officer of China’s Air Force who was hunkered down in the Chinese consulate in San Francisco. Juan Tang is likely to appear in U.S. District Court on Friday, after the FBI earlier this week arrested three other individuals charged with visa fraud and lying about working for China’s People’s Liberation Army.
Like other consular facilities, the Houston consulate had been long used as a base of operations for Chinese intelligence services, officials said, because of their status as sovereign territory within the United States. But a senior intelligence official said that science and technology intelligence collectors from the Houston area were “particularly aggressive and particularly successful.” Earlier this month, FBI Director Christopher Wray said that the agency opens a new Chinese espionage case approximately every 10 hours.
In July 2019, a Houston businessman, Shan Shi, was found guilty of conspiring to steal trade secrets from a Texas company that makes drilling equipment for the oil industry. Shi, a naturalized U.S. citizen, was acquitted of conspiring to conduct economic espionage on behalf of China.
Also last year, three scientists were ousted from MD Anderson, one of the world’s leading cancer care centers, after the National Institutes of Health raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest or unreported foreign income among a handful of faculty members. The nationalities of the scientists weren’t made public, but investigative reports made reference to China and Chinese institutions. More recently, the United Kingdom and United States have blamed Russian digital intruders for targeting coronavirus vaccine research, including the so-called Cozy Bear hackers linked to 2016 cyberattacks against the Democratic National Committee.
“Their No. 1 mission is our technology and our research,” said James Olson, a former CIA chief of counterintelligence and now a professor at Texas A&M University. “They have a very insatiable appetite for any tech that’s better than they have, because they’ve decided it’s much easier to steal it than to get it on their own.”
In recent years, Texas has become a hotbed for perceived or potential Chinese espionage against U.S. interests.
Last month, Foreign Policy reported that the Trump administration had opted not to block a Chinese company with links to the People’s Liberation Army from building a wind farm near Laughlin Air Force Base, the U.S. military’s largest hub for pilot training. Earlier this month, Texas Republican Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, along with Rep. Will Hurd, asked Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to provide a classified briefing on whether the project would infringe upon Air Force flight training routes.
But even with President Donald Trump amping up his anti-China rhetoric in the runup to the consular closures, some Democrats in Congress said that the White House had gone easy on China on key strategic issues, including backing off on actions against the telecommunications companies ZTE and Huawei, and initially trying to stop sanctions against Chinese officials involved in crackdowns in Hong Kong.
“Clearly what the president is trying to do after cozying up to President Xi [Jinping] for a long time, he’s decided that he’s going to play tough guy with China, especially with respect to blaming them for the spread of the coronavirus,” Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen told Foreign Policy.
“On the one hand the president wants to beat his chest and talk tough now about China, but all his actions, at least in the areas of human rights and democracy, have simply been essentially appeasing President Xi and the government of China,” Van Hollen said.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-24--North Macedonia’s Success Story May be About to End

North Macedonia ’ s Success Story May be About to End If the Balkans has a success story , it is probably Macedonia .
In the 1990s , the country was praised for its peaceful separation from Yugoslavia .
More recently , in June 2018 , its prime minister , Zoran Zaev , signed a historic treaty with neighboring Greece to resolve a long-standing dispute over the name “ Macedonia.
” The rebranded “ North Macedonia ” reaped rewards .
In short order , it was allowed to join NATO as the organization ’ s 30th member .
North Macedonia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accession talks with the European Union , too .
Support for Western institutions runs high .
Capping things off , on July 15 this year , Zaev ’ s Social Democratic Union party won the largest share of the vote in a hotly contested election , held amid a regional spike of COVID-19 to boot .
The party will hold two parliamentary seats more than its principal rival , a right-wing party known as VMRO-DPMNE , and has a fair chance to lead the next government .
That ’ s good news for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But on closer inspection , North Macedonia ’ s success story is less convincing .
And , if anything , the elections shone a light on the very real challenges the country faces .
Populist nationalism appeals to voters .
Backed by Hungary ’ s Viktor Orban , the self-appointed torch-bearer of “ illiberal democracy ” in Europe , VMRO-DPMNE finished the race a close second .
One of the party ’ s talking points was resentment against the treaty with Greece .
Party leader Hristijan Mickoski and his supporters shunned the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” during the campaign , and they will continue to do so in opposition .
In the same vein , VMRO-DPMNE is pulling no punches when it comes to efforts to tackle long-standing disputes with EU member Bulgaria , which has been piling pressure on Skopje for concessions with regard to what the two sides now call “ shared history , ” including the legacy of historical figures celebrated in both countries as national heroes .
Populist nationalism is not a monopoly for the right .
Levica ( “ the Left ” ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little over 4 percent of the vote , which translated into two seats .
It promised to cancel the agreement with Greece , pull the country out of NATO , and even derecognize neighboring Kosovo .
Corruption likewise continues to be a grave concern .
VMRO-DPMNE capitalized on scandals tainting the Social Democratic Union , including a bribery case that implicated Special Prosecutor Katica Janeva , who was appointed to investigate high-level graft .
But the country ’ s right wing is hardly cleaner .
Nikola Gruevski , prime minister from 2006 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence-trading , and was sentenced to a jail term but escaped justice by finding refuge in Hungary .
North Macedonia ’ s Special Prosecution Office , created by the EU in 2015 as a means to hold high-level officials to account , proved a flop because of the Janeva affair .
Meanwhile , a new law empowering the public prosecutor to go after corrupt politicians and their business cronies , which legislators in the North Macedonian government adopted as precondition for EU accession talks , is yet to prove its worth .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rule-of-law reform , if only to please Europe , but implementation will remain a challenge .
In part , the corruption problems relate to the fact that there is a trade-off between interethnic peace and good governance .
Sharing the spoils of government among political representatives of the country ’ s ethnic groups has been key to North Macedonia ’ s model , even prior to the 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement constitutionalizing power-sharing .
Albanians are the second-largest community , and , in the latest election , the Democratic Union for Integration retained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And now the Social Democratic Union needs the party ’ s support to form a cabinet .
The Democratic Union for Integration is far from graft-free , and it is once again a kingmaker .
Its leader , Ali Ahmeti , outmaneuvered competitors , including the Besa Movement , which is aligned with the Social Democrats , by playing the nationalist card .
The party insists that North Macedonia should have its first Albanian prime minister .
Even if this is a negotiations ploy , the demand may fan ethnic tensions .
Lastly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but the West itself is undergoing real change .
NATO ’ s commitment to the country is not really in question , but the trajectory of the EU is reason for caution .
Enlargement is no longer a priority .
For French President Emmanuel Macron as well as other leaders , internal consolidation , starting with the reform of the eurozone , comes first .
That is why France vetoed the start of accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia last October and gave a green light only after the European Commission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Macedonia .
The EU-Western Balkans Summit in May—conducted over video conference call—spoke of “ European perspective ” rather than membership , a detail that did not go unnoticed in the region .
All in all , there is a good chance North Macedonia will be stuck in talks for a large part of the coming decade .
Its reformist zeal and willingness to comply with Brussels ’ s demands may wither away as time passes .
For now , North Macedonia is playing along the Western script .
Yet it is fighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in sight .

If the Balkans has a success story, it is probably Macedonia. In the 1990s, the country was praised for its peaceful separation from Yugoslavia. More recently, in June 2018, its prime minister, Zoran Zaev, signed a historic treaty with neighboring Greece to resolve a long-standing dispute over the name “Macedonia.” The rebranded “North Macedonia” reaped rewards. In short order, it was allowed to join NATO as the organization’s 30th member. North Macedonia is now on the verge of opening accession talks with the European Union, too. Support for Western institutions runs high . Capping things off, on July 15 this year, Zaev’s Social Democratic Union party won the largest share of the vote in a hotly contested election, held amid a regional spike of COVID-19 to boot. The party will hold two parliamentary seats more than its principal rival, a right-wing party known as VMRO-DPMNE, and has a fair chance to lead the next government. That’s good news for both the EU and the United States.
If the Balkans has a success story, it is probably Macedonia. In the 1990s, the country was praised for its peaceful separation from Yugoslavia. More recently, in June 2018, its prime minister, Zoran Zaev, signed a historic treaty with neighboring Greece to resolve a long-standing dispute over the name “Macedonia.” The rebranded “North Macedonia” reaped rewards. In short order, it was allowed to join NATO as the organization’s 30th member. North Macedonia is now on the verge of opening accession talks with the European Union, too. Support for Western institutions runs high. Capping things off, on July 15 this year, Zaev’s Social Democratic Union party won the largest share of the vote in a hotly contested election, held amid a regional spike of COVID-19 to boot. The party will hold two parliamentary seats more than its principal rival, a right-wing party known as VMRO-DPMNE, and has a fair chance to lead the next government. That’s good news for both the EU and the United States.
But on closer inspection, North Macedonia’s success story is less convincing. And, if anything, the elections shone a light on the very real challenges the country faces.
Populist nationalism appeals to voters. Backed by Hungary’s Viktor Orban, the self-appointed torch-bearer of “illiberal democracy” in Europe, VMRO-DPMNE finished the race a close second. One of the party’s talking points was resentment against the treaty with Greece. Party leader Hristijan Mickoski and his supporters shunned the use of the name “North Macedonia” during the campaign, and they will continue to do so in opposition. In the same vein, VMRO-DPMNE is pulling no punches when it comes to efforts to tackle long-standing disputes with EU member Bulgaria, which has been piling pressure on Skopje for concessions with regard to what the two sides now call “shared history,” including the legacy of historical figures celebrated in both countries as national heroes.
Populist nationalism is not a monopoly for the right. Levica (“the Left”) made it into the legislature with a little over 4 percent of the vote, which translated into two seats. It promised to cancel the agreement with Greece, pull the country out of NATO, and even derecognize neighboring Kosovo.
Corruption likewise continues to be a grave concern. VMRO-DPMNE capitalized on scandals tainting the Social Democratic Union, including a bribery case that implicated Special Prosecutor Katica Janeva, who was appointed to investigate high-level graft. But the country’s right wing is hardly cleaner. Nikola Gruevski, prime minister from 2006 to 2016, was accused of embezzlement and influence-trading, and was sentenced to a jail term but escaped justice by finding refuge in Hungary. North Macedonia’s Special Prosecution Office, created by the EU in 2015 as a means to hold high-level officials to account, proved a flop because of the Janeva affair. Meanwhile, a new law empowering the public prosecutor to go after corrupt politicians and their business cronies, which legislators in the North Macedonian government adopted as precondition for EU accession talks, is yet to prove its worth. The incoming cabinet will no doubt rhetorically support rule-of-law reform, if only to please Europe, but implementation will remain a challenge.
In part, the corruption problems relate to the fact that there is a trade-off between interethnic peace and good governance. Sharing the spoils of government among political representatives of the country’s ethnic groups has been key to North Macedonia’s model, even prior to the 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement constitutionalizing power-sharing. Albanians are the second-largest community, and, in the latest election, the Democratic Union for Integration retained its lead among the Albanian community. And now the Social Democratic Union needs the party’s support to form a cabinet. The Democratic Union for Integration is far from graft-free, and it is once again a kingmaker. Its leader, Ali Ahmeti, outmaneuvered competitors, including the Besa Movement, which is aligned with the Social Democrats, by playing the nationalist card. The party insists that North Macedonia should have its first Albanian prime minister. Even if this is a negotiations ploy, the demand may fan ethnic tensions.
Lastly, North Macedonia may be leaning West, but the West itself is undergoing real change. NATO’s commitment to the country is not really in question, but the trajectory of the EU is reason for caution. Enlargement is no longer a priority. For French President Emmanuel Macron as well as other leaders, internal consolidation, starting with the reform of the eurozone, comes first. That is why France vetoed the start of accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia last October and gave a green light only after the European Commission agreed to reopen some already closed agreements with Macedonia. The EU-Western Balkans Summit in May—conducted over video conference call—spoke of “European perspective” rather than membership, a detail that did not go unnoticed in the region. All in all, there is a good chance North Macedonia will be stuck in talks for a large part of the coming decade. Its reformist zeal and willingness to comply with Brussels’s demands may wither away as time passes.
For now, North Macedonia is playing along the Western script. Yet it is fighting an uphill battle with no easy victory in sight.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-24--America’s Schools Are a Moral and Medical Catastrophe

This is nothing short of moral bankruptcy .
The Trump administration is effectively demanding schools bend to its will , without offering a hint of expert guidance on how to do so safely , much less the necessary financing .
I can ’ t correct for the latter failure , of course .
But here ’ s some information that will be of use to the many rightfully concerned parents and educators across the United States .
1 .
Should a national-scale school reopening be considered , at all ?
Emphatically , no .
The state of Florida ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have been tested for the novel coronavirus were found to be infected , and there ’ s a gradient of infection downward with age : Only 16 percent of these positive cases are in children 1 to 4 years old , whereas 29 percent are in those 15 to 17 years old .
In Nueces County , Texas , 85 children under age 2 have tested positive for the coronavirus since March , killing one of them .
The infections were likely caught from parents or older siblings .
A South Korean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adults living in households that had an infected child aged 10 to 19 years had the highest rate of catching the coronavirus—more so than when an infected adult was present .
Nearly 19 percent of people living with an infected teenager went on to test positive for the virus within 10 days .
A Kaiser Family Foundation study says some 3.3 million adults over 65 in the United States live in a home with at least one school-aged child , putting the elders at special risk .
A one-size policy absolutely does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflection of the larger coronavirus prevalence in a community .
A blanket national school policy makes no sense whatsoever .
2 .
Do school shutdowns work to slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities ?
Some studies of European countries that have successfully limited spread of the virus found that school opening has no impact on the epidemic , one way or another , at that stage of coronavirus containment .
Of the more than 2000 blood samples examined in a German study , only 12 were able to detect antibodies , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one percent .
This means that a silent , symptom-free infection in the pupils and teachers examined by us has so far occurred less frequently than we suspected .
On the other hand , school closure appears to be an essential component of social distancing in places where the coronavirus runs rampant , such as in New York City this spring , or Miami today .
3 .
What is the most crucial information that decision-makers must have in hand before opening schools ?
Ideally , school districts should first create voluntary cohorts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to test for the coronavirus this summer to determine how rampant the virus may be in their respective communities .
If rates of infection approach zero , schools may open—but the same cohorts should be retested periodically to spot increases in infection rates , upon which the schools should take action to stifle an outbreak through contact tracing , further testing , and isolating the infected staff and students at home for two weeks .
Opening schools without such baseline data is like launching a new product line without initial focus-group testing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amounts to flying blind .
4 .
How dangerous is COVID-19 for children ?
COVID-19 illness may be relatively rare in children , but it can be very severe , even fatal .
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C associated with COVID-19 has been found to lead to “ serious and life-threatening illness in previously healthy children and adolescents , ” according to a study in the New England Journal of Medicine .
MIS-C involves swelling , pain , and dysfunction in multiple organs in a child ’ s body , generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proven lethal in four of the recently reported American cases .
By late May , two research groups had analyzed nearly 300 cases of MIS-C in at least 26 U.S. states .
Less common are profound cardiovascular effects in infected teenagers , such as a 16-year-old Italian boy whose heart swelled , nearly killing him .
Strokes , delirium , high fevers , and possible brain damage have all been seen in children , in addition to the range of adult COVID-19 symptoms .
5 .
But aren ’ t kids suffering now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and failing to learn social skills ?
Yes .
Peer socialization is crucial to kids ’ understandings of everything from gender and race to hierarchy , power , etiquette , civic responsibility , generosity , friendship , love , violence , and self-awareness .
Researchers warn that the isolation necessitated by the pandemic could lead to serious mental health issues in locked-down teenagers .
Moreover , roughly 30 million kids in U.S. schools annually are enrolled in the U.S. Department of Agriculture ’ s National School Lunch Program , receiving daily free meals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loggerheads with child advocacy groups and school districts over qualifications for free meals in reopening schools .
Moreover , some 31 million kids in U.S. schools last year were in the U.S. Department of Agriculture ’ s National School Lunch Program , receiving daily free meals .
The national charity Feeding America says about one out of every four children , or 11.2 million , in the United States are now experiencing daily hunger due to the COVID-19 school closures .
6 .
Can physical changes at schools—fewer kids per class , better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for everybody ?
In communities with rampant spread of the coronavirus it ’ s not possible to guarantee safe classrooms .
But where community infection rates are lower , any measures that increase airflow and reduce crowding and physical contact , coupled with required mask-wearing , will tremendously reduce viral spread .
Here ’ s the key : 172 social distancing studies worldwide show that separating people by more than six feet could reduce viral spread by as much as 90 percent , and proper mask-wearing cuts the risk by a whopping 82 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s the problem ?
Just put 10 kids in a classroom instead of 30 , put top-of-the-line filters on the air conditioning systems , have everybody wear masks , and voila : safe classrooms , no ?
The U.S. market for child-sized masks has always been stressed , and some states , such as California , have begun buying up such masks in anticipation of possible school reopenings .
Moreover , requiring kids to wear masks for hours every day can prove frightening to some children , and it ’ s difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mask-wearing and in-class social distancing will affect children ’ s education and social skills , because nothing exactly like this has ever been attempted , especially for months on end .
What ’ s clear is that smaller classes with better air filter systems cost money .
Fairness quickly becomes an issue : Wealthy districts are more likely to have the resources to make such changes—and to pay for additional staff to accommodate more classes of fewer students .
Communities with lower property tax bases are far less likely to have the money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
8 .
If you build it—spend all that money to make the air safe to breathe and spread the children out—will parents send their kids to school , and will teachers show up ?
The Trump administration ’ s Occupational Safety and Health Administration has taken an anti-regulatory stance , so there are no COVID-19 rules to protect school district employees .
American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten predicts a massive wave of teacher retirements will unfold : “ We ’ re going to see a huge brain drain in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already heard from teachers and staff union leaders that they may go on strike in coming weeks if ordered to work under conditions they feel are unsafe .
This week the largest teachers union in Florida filed a lawsuit against Gov .
Ron DeSantis , charging his administration has not taken steps to ensure school safety .
Parents face competing pressures to get back to their jobs , which means getting the kids out of the house—but they want their children to be safe .
Balancing those interests is tough , even for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveyed hundreds of disease experts , finding that 10 percent of respondents felt ready to send kids back to school right away , but , at the other end , 15 percent thought it best to wait more than a year .
A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll of American adults finds that despite more than half of them saying the pandemic and lockdown have had a negative impact on their mental health , 60 percent of parents with kids in school believe schools should not reopen as long as the coronavirus continues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only 34 percent think it ’ s wise to open classes sooner .
9 .
What about justice ?
Poorer households are less likely to have access to high-speed internet , decent computers , and private rooms for each child , so they face more barriers to learning online .
But they are also likely to go to school in districts that can ’ t afford to adapt to the coronavirus pandemic .
Is there a way to avoid having the COVID-19 crisis spawn a lost generation effect , hitting especially hard in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all issues , this is the key reason why the Trump administration ’ s hands-off policy will fail .
Leaving all decisions and mitigations regarding schools to local communities ensures shortages of funds and a lack of political commitment to the neediest .
Without federal resources and financial support to create an even playing field , these kids will lose , regardless of whether schools are opened or remote learning continues .
Many of them are going hungry now , in the absence of subsidized school meals , and , according to multiple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ districts report that only around half of students log into online classes in an average day .
Even in the best of times , their schools were the worst the United States had to offer , with crowded classes squashed into run-down facilities featuring inadequate or nonexistent air conditioning or winter heat .
Since the earliest days of America ’ s COVID-19 catastrophe , the epidemic has put a magnifying glass on the nation ’ s unresolved problems and poor leadership .
Schools all over the country have long been starved for resources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own meager salaries for classroom materials , and wide socioeconomic and racial divides have presented unfair obstacles to learning and advancement for millions of children .
The virus didn ’ t create these problems .
But any hope of vanquishing the coronavirus threat to American communities requires political and financial commitment to confronting the conditions of U.S. schools , from all government tiers , including in the White House .
Without it , few communities will be able to ensure the continued education of the nation ’ s youth .

After U.S. President Donald Trump demanded last week that schools nationwide reopen this fall, regardless of the status of their community’s COVID-19 epidemic status, his Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos was asked how this could safely be accomplished. She offered no guidelines, nor financial support to strapped school districts. Her reply was that school districts nationwide needed to create their own safety schemes and realize that the federal government will cut off funds if schools fail to reopen. “I think the go-to needs to be kids in school, in person, in the classroom,” she said in an interview on CNN on July 12.
After U.S. President Donald Trump demanded last week that schools nationwide reopen this fall, regardless of the status of their community’s COVID-19 epidemic status, his Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos was asked how this could safely be accomplished. She offered no guidelines, nor financial support to strapped school districts. Her reply was that school districts nationwide needed to create their own safety schemes and realize that the federal government will cut off funds if schools fail to reopen. “I think the go-to needs to be kids in school, in person, in the classroom,” she said in an interview on CNN on July 12.
This is nothing short of moral bankruptcy. The Trump administration is effectively demanding schools bend to its will, without offering a hint of expert guidance on how to do so safely, much less the necessary financing.
I can’t correct for the latter failure, of course. But here’s some information that will be of use to the many rightfully concerned parents and educators across the United States.
1. Should a national-scale school reopening be considered, at all?
Emphatically, no. The state of Florida’s data shows that 13 percent of children who have been tested for the novel coronavirus were found to be infected, and there’s a gradient of infection downward with age: Only 16 percent of these positive cases are in children 1 to 4 years old, whereas 29 percent are in those 15 to 17 years old. In Nueces County, Texas, 85 children under age 2 have tested positive for the coronavirus since March, killing one of them. The infections were likely caught from parents or older siblings. A South Korean government survey of 60,000 households discovered that adults living in households that had an infected child aged 10 to 19 years had the highest rate of catching the coronavirus—more so than when an infected adult was present. Nearly 19 percent of people living with an infected teenager went on to test positive for the virus within 10 days. A Kaiser Family Foundation study says some 3.3 million adults over 65 in the United States live in a home with at least one school-aged child, putting the elders at special risk.
A one-size policy absolutely does not fit all: School risk is a reflection of the larger coronavirus prevalence in a community. A blanket national school policy makes no sense whatsoever.
2. Do school shutdowns work to slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities?
Some studies of European countries that have successfully limited spread of the virus found that school opening has no impact on the epidemic, one way or another, at that stage of coronavirus containment. Of the more than 2000 blood samples examined in a German study, only 12 were able to detect antibodies, which corresponds to a share of well below one percent. This means that a silent, symptom-free infection in the pupils and teachers examined by us has so far occurred less frequently than we suspected. On the other hand, school closure appears to be an essential component of social distancing in places where the coronavirus runs rampant, such as in New York City this spring, or Miami today.
3. What is the most crucial information that decision-makers must have in hand before opening schools?
Ideally, school districts should first create voluntary cohorts of students, teachers, and staff to test for the coronavirus this summer to determine how rampant the virus may be in their respective communities. If rates of infection approach zero, schools may open—but the same cohorts should be retested periodically to spot increases in infection rates, upon which the schools should take action to stifle an outbreak through contact tracing, further testing, and isolating the infected staff and students at home for two weeks.
Opening schools without such baseline data is like launching a new product line without initial focus-group testing to know what consumers will buy. It amounts to flying blind.
4. How dangerous is COVID-19 for children?
COVID-19 illness may be relatively rare in children, but it can be very severe, even fatal. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C associated with COVID-19 has been found to lead to “serious and life-threatening illness in previously healthy children and adolescents,” according to a study in the New England Journal of Medicine. MIS-C involves swelling, pain, and dysfunction in multiple organs in a child’s body, generally leads to hospitalization, and in has proven lethal in four of the recently reported American cases. By late May, two research groups had analyzed nearly 300 cases of MIS-C in at least 26 U.S. states. Less common are profound cardiovascular effects in infected teenagers, such as a 16-year-old Italian boy whose heart swelled, nearly killing him. Strokes, delirium, high fevers, and possible brain damage have all been seen in children, in addition to the range of adult COVID-19 symptoms.
5. But aren’t kids suffering now, without being with other children, and failing to learn social skills?
Yes. Peer socialization is crucial to kids’ understandings of everything from gender and race to hierarchy, power, etiquette, civic responsibility, generosity, friendship, love, violence, and self-awareness. Researchers warn that the isolation necessitated by the pandemic could lead to serious mental health issues in locked-down teenagers. Moreover, roughly 30 million kids in U.S. schools annually are enrolled in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National School Lunch Program, receiving daily free meals. The Trump administration is currently at loggerheads with child advocacy groups and school districts over qualifications for free meals in reopening schools.
Moreover, some 31 million kids in U.S. schools last year were in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National School Lunch Program, receiving daily free meals. The national charity Feeding America says about one out of every four children, or 11.2 million, in the United States are now experiencing daily hunger due to the COVID-19 school closures.
6. Can physical changes at schools—fewer kids per class, better airflow, everybody wearing masks—sufficiently increase safety for everybody?
In communities with rampant spread of the coronavirus it’s not possible to guarantee safe classrooms. But where community infection rates are lower, any measures that increase airflow and reduce crowding and physical contact, coupled with required mask-wearing, will tremendously reduce viral spread. Here’s the key: 172 social distancing studies worldwide show that separating people by more than six feet could reduce viral spread by as much as 90 percent, and proper mask-wearing cuts the risk by a whopping 82 percent.
7. So, what’s the problem? Just put 10 kids in a classroom instead of 30, put top-of-the-line filters on the air conditioning systems, have everybody wear masks, and voila: safe classrooms, no?
The U.S. market for child-sized masks has always been stressed, and some states, such as California, have begun buying up such masks in anticipation of possible school reopenings. Moreover, requiring kids to wear masks for hours every day can prove frightening to some children, and it’s difficult to enforce. Nobody knows how full-time mask-wearing and in-class social distancing will affect children’s education and social skills, because nothing exactly like this has ever been attempted, especially for months on end.
What’s clear is that smaller classes with better air filter systems cost money. Fairness quickly becomes an issue: Wealthy districts are more likely to have the resources to make such changes—and to pay for additional staff to accommodate more classes of fewer students. Communities with lower property tax bases are far less likely to have the money to adapt in this way to COVID-19.
8. If you build it—spend all that money to make the air safe to breathe and spread the children out—will parents send their kids to school, and will teachers show up?
The Trump administration’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration has taken an anti-regulatory stance, so there are no COVID-19 rules to protect school district employees. American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten predicts a massive wave of teacher retirements will unfold: “We’re going to see a huge brain drain in the next few weeks.” Many superintendents have already heard from teachers and staff union leaders that they may go on strike in coming weeks if ordered to work under conditions they feel are unsafe. This week the largest teachers union in Florida filed a lawsuit against Gov. Ron DeSantis, charging his administration has not taken steps to ensure school safety.
Parents face competing pressures to get back to their jobs, which means getting the kids out of the house—but they want their children to be safe. Balancing those interests is tough, even for the experts. The New York Times surveyed hundreds of disease experts, finding that 10 percent of respondents felt ready to send kids back to school right away, but, at the other end, 15 percent thought it best to wait more than a year. A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll of American adults finds that despite more than half of them saying the pandemic and lockdown have had a negative impact on their mental health, 60 percent of parents with kids in school believe schools should not reopen as long as the coronavirus continues to circulate in their communities, and only 34 percent think it’s wise to open classes sooner.
9. What about justice? Poorer households are less likely to have access to high-speed internet, decent computers, and private rooms for each child, so they face more barriers to learning online. But they are also likely to go to school in districts that can’t afford to adapt to the coronavirus pandemic. Is there a way to avoid having the COVID-19 crisis spawn a lost generation effect, hitting especially hard in African American and Hispanic communities?
Of all issues, this is the key reason why the Trump administration’s hands-off policy will fail. Leaving all decisions and mitigations regarding schools to local communities ensures shortages of funds and a lack of political commitment to the neediest. Without federal resources and financial support to create an even playing field, these kids will lose, regardless of whether schools are opened or remote learning continues. Many of them are going hungry now, in the absence of subsidized school meals, and, according to multiple surveys, have disappeared from remote schooling—various districts report that only around half of students log into online classes in an average day. Even in the best of times, their schools were the worst the United States had to offer, with crowded classes squashed into run-down facilities featuring inadequate or nonexistent air conditioning or winter heat.
Since the earliest days of America’s COVID-19 catastrophe, the epidemic has put a magnifying glass on the nation’s unresolved problems and poor leadership. Schools all over the country have long been starved for resources, teachers have famously paid from their own meager salaries for classroom materials, and wide socioeconomic and racial divides have presented unfair obstacles to learning and advancement for millions of children.
The virus didn’t create these problems. But any hope of vanquishing the coronavirus threat to American communities requires political and financial commitment to confronting the conditions of U.S. schools, from all government tiers, including in the White House. Without it, few communities will be able to ensure the continued education of the nation’s youth.


foreignpolicy--2020-07-24--The United States Needs a Truth Commission. It Should Be Televised.

The United States Needs a Truth Commission .
It Should Be Televised .
As the United States contends with the historic Black Lives Matter movement , several U.S. politicians have renewed their calls for truth commissions—public inquiries into past grievances and human rights violations .
Members of Congress , including Rep. Barbara Lee , Rep. John Larson , Sen. Marco Rubio , Sen. Cory Booker , and Sen. Kamala Harris , have emphasized the importance of such hearings in achieving a society-level understanding of the root causes of violence , inequality , and racism , and also in beginning the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reconciliation .
But to have a mass impact , especially because racism in the United States is so deep-rooted , these truth commissions must also be broadcast live .
With government support , such commissions could be established at the national level .
If headed by elected commissioners with a reputable record of truth-seeking efforts , a nationwide truth commission would galvanize a national dialogue to complement the work of city and state-level commissions .
Through these hearings , which should be televised and streamed online , victims would share testimony of injustices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the injustices they committed .
How far back into the past these commissions should go is an issue that depends on how far back living survivors are able to provide firsthand testimony .
These stories would be both personal and historical , providing context that other justice mechanisms , such as prosecutions , do not capture .
A live recounting of painful stories would grant agency to survivors in a way that top-down policies , such as reparations , would not .
It would also force citizens across U.S. society to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or switch off .
If several channels air the testimonies , they would be difficult to ignore .
Whether in support or in resistance , all Americans would participate in a sobering exercise of public reckoning .
It is easy for those who have not suffered racism and violence to dismiss protests as crowds of angry individuals who will eventually tire of taking to the streets .
But the power of video footage is undeniable .
The Black Lives Matter movement , particularly following George Floyd ’ s death and its public broadcasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. national consciousness .
According to a Monmouth University poll , 76 percent of Americans—including 71 percent of white Americans—now say that racial and ethnic discrimination is a “ big problem ” in the United States , up from 51 percent in 2015 .
It would be difficult , then , to turn away from a public reckoning with a long history of police brutality and institutional racism broadcast live .
As with Floyd ’ s last words , “ I can ’ t breathe , ” these painful testimonies can not be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online , especially as they would reach a wider audience , including Americans of varied backgrounds .
Such a collective experience would be hard to erase .
Historically , truth commissions have taken place in the aftermath of mass violence , such as after the overthrow of the dictatorial regime in Tunisia in 2011 or the end of apartheid in South Africa in 1994 .
Between 2014 and 2019 , Tunisia ’ s Truth and Dignity Commission investigated and documented crimes committed over a six-decade period spanning the last year of French colonial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In 2019 , it released a damning 2,000-page report outlining torture , sexual crimes , corruption , and other violations .
But the most striking moments of the Tunisian commission were the hours of public hearings aired on prime-time television and streamed online in 2016 and 2017 .
Victims and their relatives recounted the gruesome details of torture , sexual crimes , and other injustices perpetrated by the Tunisian state security apparatus .
South Africa ’ s Truth and Reconciliation Commission offers similar lessons .
Established in 1995 , the commission aimed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under four decades of apartheid rule , as well as to facilitate reparations and national reconciliation .
As in Tunisia , the commission made its mark when it broadcast live and recorded television and radio testimonies between 1996 and 1997 .
For many South Africans , “ [ T ] hese public hearings were the commission , ” argues Catherine Cole , a professor at the University of Washington .
Only 10 percent of victims , around 2,000 South Africans , provided public testimonies , but the footage amounted to more than 14,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of audio .
These local-level commissions are important , but they failed to galvanize American society at large , as their mandates to address structural racism were limited to a specific event or policy .
On their own , these commissions are not enough to trigger national-level change with regards to the entrenched injustice of racism .
The persistence of structural racism , police brutality , and police impunity in the United States requires a national public reckoning .
A series of live video hearings would expose , address , and acknowledge America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ racism .
Most importantly , the toll of this history would be etched into the public memory .
Victims would have the opportunity to tell the full story of their grievances .
Contextualized stories recounted by the victims themselves would contribute to a larger narrative , illustrating the full picture of structural and systemic racism .
Truth commissions are unlike a typical trial in a court of law , where victims must have an open legal case in order to share their story .
Victims don ’ t need to endure an adversarial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ afford victims and their families the opportunity to paint a fuller picture .
In the United States , a truth commission would capture the complexities of structural and historical racism .
These stories often remain behind closed doors , or in thousands of pages of truth commission reports .
They can also become tainted by a polarized media in a fractious political climate .
But hearing the stories firsthand from perpetrators , victims , and their families would compel viewers to make their own decisions on the significance of the injustices described .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ public memory because they are more accessible than a multivolume report for viewers from diverse backgrounds .
They galvanize the public discourse , challenging narratives about the past and its impact on the present .
The participation of perpetrators can expose how such injustices are enforced persistently and with impunity .
Tunisia and South Africa again offer important precedents .
In Tunisia , five perpetrators came forward to testify at the Truth and Dignity Commission .
While some used the platform as a way to defend their actions and deflect responsibility , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that might not have otherwise come to light .
One of the perpetrators in particular broke with the official narratives of the past .
Mohamed Imed Trabelsi , a nephew of the former first lady and a wealthy businessman , delivered prerecorded testimony from his prison cell ; he is serving sentences amounting to 108 years for corruption .
Aired in May 2017 , his testimony—though it appeared to lack remorse—described a web of corruption .
“ Neither the analysis of experts nor that of politicians is as powerful as the words of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what happened to them , ” said Sihem Bensedrine , the president of the Truth and Dignity Commission .
“ Nothing matches the emotional intensity that emerges from the screen and touches the core of the viewer.
” In a survey conducted by Tunisia ’ s Truth and Dignity Commission , around 84 percent of those polled said that their perception of the former dictatorships had changed for the worse following the public hearings .
Approximately 4 million Tunisians—about one-third of the population—tuned in to the hearings live , either on television or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Tunisian writer and leftist intellectual who was jailed and tortured for his political activism in the 1960s and 1970s , ended his testimony by highlighting the importance of the public hearings : “ The truth , no matter what we do , is revolutionary.
” Transitional justice advocates often cite South Africa ’ s Truth and Reconciliation Commission as a model for the United States because of its significant reach across South African society .
But less examined is the impact that the live hearings had on a much broader swath of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ final report did .
Experts point to how the audio and video recordings powerfully humanized individual stories of suffering , preventing desensitization .
Moreover , the visual impact of video hearings supersedes that of a multivolume written report—the same can be said about existing and future such reports in the United States .
The recent surge in calls for transitional justice in the United States is overwhelmingly focused on reparations and the establishment of truth and reconciliation commissions .
But without live video hearings , wider U.S. society will miss the opportunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unsettles the past and attempts to dismantle systemic racism and socioeconomic inequality—today and in the future .
Such public hearings are not without risks .
Victims , their families , and their communities could be retraumatized as they relive the horrors of the past through live testimonies .
Some perpetrators would exploit such public hearings to put forth a narrative that denies the existence of police brutality or systemic racism—something that can also retraumatize victims and polarize societies .
Many of these risks could be mitigated through government-funded psychosocial support and carefully crafted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If a national broadcaster aired truth commission testimonies in the United States , it would shake the American psyche into consciousness .
This is a necessary first step for the process of public healing and reconciliation .
It is a painful but essential exercise if meaningful change is to become a reality .

As the United States contends with the historic Black Lives Matter movement, several U.S. politicians have renewed their calls for truth commissions—public inquiries into past grievances and human rights violations. Members of Congress, including Rep. Barbara Lee , Rep. John Larson , Sen. Marco Rubio , Sen. Cory Booker, and Sen. Kamala Harris, have emphasized the importance of such hearings in achieving a society-level understanding of the root causes of violence, inequality, and racism, and also in beginning the processes of accountability, healing, and reconciliation.
As the United States contends with the historic Black Lives Matter movement, several U.S. politicians have renewed their calls for truth commissions—public inquiries into past grievances and human rights violations. Members of Congress, including Rep. Barbara Lee, Rep. John Larson, Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Cory Booker, and Sen. Kamala Harris, have emphasized the importance of such hearings in achieving a society-level understanding of the root causes of violence, inequality, and racism, and also in beginning the processes of accountability, healing, and reconciliation.
But to have a mass impact, especially because racism in the United States is so deep-rooted, these truth commissions must also be broadcast live.
With government support, such commissions could be established at the national level. If headed by elected commissioners with a reputable record of truth-seeking efforts, a nationwide truth commission would galvanize a national dialogue to complement the work of city and state-level commissions.
Through these hearings, which should be televised and streamed online, victims would share testimony of injustices suffered, and perpetrators would share stories about the injustices they committed. How far back into the past these commissions should go is an issue that depends on how far back living survivors are able to provide firsthand testimony. These stories would be both personal and historical, providing context that other justice mechanisms, such as prosecutions, do not capture.
A live recounting of painful stories would grant agency to survivors in a way that top-down policies, such as reparations, would not. It would also force citizens across U.S. society to make a conscious decision: Either they watch or switch off. If several channels air the testimonies, they would be difficult to ignore. Whether in support or in resistance, all Americans would participate in a sobering exercise of public reckoning.
It is easy for those who have not suffered racism and violence to dismiss protests as crowds of angry individuals who will eventually tire of taking to the streets. But the power of video footage is undeniable. The Black Lives Matter movement, particularly following George Floyd’s death and its public broadcasting, represents a notable shift in the U.S. national consciousness. According to a Monmouth University poll, 76 percent of Americans—including 71 percent of white Americans—now say that racial and ethnic discrimination is a “big problem” in the United States, up from 51 percent in 2015.
It would be difficult, then, to turn away from a public reckoning with a long history of police brutality and institutional racism broadcast live. As with Floyd’s last words, “I can’t breathe,” these painful testimonies cannot be unseen or unheard when televised and streamed online, especially as they would reach a wider audience, including Americans of varied backgrounds. Such a collective experience would be hard to erase.
Historically, truth commissions have taken place in the aftermath of mass violence, such as after the overthrow of the dictatorial regime in Tunisia in 2011 or the end of apartheid in South Africa in 1994.
Between 2014 and 2019, Tunisia’s Truth and Dignity Commission investigated and documented crimes committed over a six-decade period spanning the last year of French colonial rule and two post-independence authoritarian regimes. In 2019, it released a damning 2,000-page report outlining torture, sexual crimes, corruption, and other violations.
But the most striking moments of the Tunisian commission were the hours of public hearings aired on prime-time television and streamed online in 2016 and 2017. Victims and their relatives recounted the gruesome details of torture, sexual crimes, and other injustices perpetrated by the Tunisian state security apparatus.
South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission offers similar lessons. Established in 1995, the commission aimed to expose and record individual and systemic suffering under four decades of apartheid rule, as well as to facilitate reparations and national reconciliation. As in Tunisia, the commission made its mark when it broadcast live and recorded television and radio testimonies between 1996 and 1997.
For many South Africans, “[T]hese public hearings were the commission,” argues Catherine Cole, a professor at the University of Washington. Only 10 percent of victims, around 2,000 South Africans, provided public testimonies, but the footage amounted to more than 14,000 hours of video and over 10,000 hours of audio.
While the United States is not grappling with the immediate aftermath of mass violence, the tools of transitional justice can nevertheless be put to good use. There has been no adequate reckoning with the mass violence generated by slavery that manifests today in the form of discrimination and police brutality. Past truth commissions in the United States have taken place mostly at the city level, such as the Greensboro Truth and Reconciliation Commission set up to establish the truth about the 1979 Greensboro massacre, or the 2011 Detroit truth commission on the role of race-based housing policies in perpetuating inequality.
These local-level commissions are important, but they failed to galvanize American society at large, as their mandates to address structural racism were limited to a specific event or policy. On their own, these commissions are not enough to trigger national-level change with regards to the entrenched injustice of racism. The persistence of structural racism, police brutality, and police impunity in the United States requires a national public reckoning.
A series of live video hearings would expose, address, and acknowledge America’s long history of inequality and racism. Most importantly, the toll of this history would be etched into the public memory. Victims would have the opportunity to tell the full story of their grievances. Contextualized stories recounted by the victims themselves would contribute to a larger narrative, illustrating the full picture of structural and systemic racism.
Truth commissions are unlike a typical trial in a court of law, where victims must have an open legal case in order to share their story. Victims don’t need to endure an adversarial cross-examination. Instead, truth commissions typically afford victims and their families the opportunity to paint a fuller picture. In the United States, a truth commission would capture the complexities of structural and historical racism. These stories often remain behind closed doors, or in thousands of pages of truth commission reports. They can also become tainted by a polarized media in a fractious political climate. But hearing the stories firsthand from perpetrators, victims, and their families would compel viewers to make their own decisions on the significance of the injustices described.
Televised hearings have a profound impact on public memory because they are more accessible than a multivolume report for viewers from diverse backgrounds. They galvanize the public discourse, challenging narratives about the past and its impact on the present. The participation of perpetrators can expose how such injustices are enforced persistently and with impunity.
Tunisia and South Africa again offer important precedents. In Tunisia, five perpetrators came forward to testify at the Truth and Dignity Commission. While some used the platform as a way to defend their actions and deflect responsibility, they nevertheless enhanced the exercise by providing details that might not have otherwise come to light. One of the perpetrators in particular broke with the official narratives of the past. Mohamed Imed Trabelsi, a nephew of the former first lady and a wealthy businessman, delivered prerecorded testimony from his prison cell; he is serving sentences amounting to 108 years for corruption. Aired in May 2017, his testimony—though it appeared to lack remorse—described a web of corruption.
“Neither the analysis of experts nor that of politicians is as powerful as the words of victims who recount the gut-wrenching details of what happened to them,” said Sihem Bensedrine, the president of the Truth and Dignity Commission. “Nothing matches the emotional intensity that emerges from the screen and touches the core of the viewer.”
In a survey conducted by Tunisia’s Truth and Dignity Commission, around 84 percent of those polled said that their perception of the former dictatorships had changed for the worse following the public hearings. Approximately 4 million Tunisians—about one-third of the population—tuned in to the hearings live, either on television or on the internet. Gilbert Naccache, a Tunisian writer and leftist intellectual who was jailed and tortured for his political activism in the 1960s and 1970s, ended his testimony by highlighting the importance of the public hearings: “The truth, no matter what we do, is revolutionary.”
Transitional justice advocates often cite South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission as a model for the United States because of its significant reach across South African society. But less examined is the impact that the live hearings had on a much broader swath of South Africans than the commission’s final report did. Experts point to how the audio and video recordings powerfully humanized individual stories of suffering, preventing desensitization. Moreover, the visual impact of video hearings supersedes that of a multivolume written report—the same can be said about existing and future such reports in the United States.
The recent surge in calls for transitional justice in the United States is overwhelmingly focused on reparations and the establishment of truth and reconciliation commissions. But without live video hearings, wider U.S. society will miss the opportunity to participate in a meaningful public reckoning that unsettles the past and attempts to dismantle systemic racism and socioeconomic inequality—today and in the future.
Such public hearings are not without risks. Victims, their families, and their communities could be retraumatized as they relive the horrors of the past through live testimonies. Some perpetrators would exploit such public hearings to put forth a narrative that denies the existence of police brutality or systemic racism—something that can also retraumatize victims and polarize societies. Many of these risks could be mitigated through government-funded psychosocial support and carefully crafted protocols to protect victims and witnesses.
If a national broadcaster aired truth commission testimonies in the United States, it would shake the American psyche into consciousness. This is a necessary first step for the process of public healing and reconciliation. It is a painful but essential exercise if meaningful change is to become a reality.