foreignpolicy--2020-08-05--‘This is Lebanon, This is Our Destiny’

‘This is Lebanon, This is Our Destiny’

‘ This is Lebanon , This is Our Destiny ’ BEIRUT , Lebanon—Had I been sitting in my study , an oval-shaped room with large glass windows , or the dining room , decorated with art-deco doors , I could have died .
Had I been with my husband , we both could have died .
I didn ’ t .
We didn ’ t .
We were lucky .
More than 100 people died and an estimated 4,000 were injured as two enormous explosions Tuesday afternoon at Beirut ’ s port rocked Lebanon ’ s capital .
The second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gray smoke and left the city looking like a war zone .
It smashed windows and doors in a 4-mile radius , and littered the entire city with chunks of glass .
The blast resonated 50 miles away in north Lebanon , and was heard 160 miles across the Mediterranean in Cyprus .
Close to the port , it was nightmarish .
We lived just over a mile from the harbor .
My house in Christian-dominated West Beirut was among those hard hit .
At 5:30 in the afternoon , I decided to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit of Netflix .
Half an hour later , I heard a loud rumbling .
As I looked out on up-market Gemmeyze street , even louder rumbling shook our building , followed by a strong blast of wind that tossed me to the other side of the room .
Shards of glass had pierced my neck and I picked up a soft toy—luckily lying atop the rubble—and used it to suppress the bleeding .
My foot was broken too , but there was nothing I could do about it .
Our house @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were still standing , but all those glass doors and windows were shattered and on the floor .
Terrified and shocked , we wondered if Lebanon was at war .
There had been tensions between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah on the southern border just last week .
Under the fallen paintings and crushed glass , sofa cushions , and a mound of splintered doors , we searched frantically for our phones , passports , and wallets .
Soon after , I limped down through a blood-splattered staircase and met several of my neighbors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had head wounds ; one was found five hours later buried under her cupboard .
The scene outside my house , in the parking lot next to our building , on a street with hipster cafes frequented by locals and expats alike , was straight out of a movie .
Soaked in blood , people walked around like zombies .
Red Cross workers , from their office on the same street , quickly scrambled to provide first aid .
One of them bandaged my neck and advised me to rush to a doctor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which was swollen and rotten green .
An old man on my left was drenched in blood and hardly breathing .
An older woman in front of me was fainting .
People tried to help each other as they cried .
“ Baddak shi ?
, ” at least ten people asked me .
“ What do you need ?
” It ’ s still not entirely clear if the explosions were the result of an accident or a deliberate attack .
Lebanon ’ s interior minister told a local TV channel that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the port had likely caused the catastrophe .
Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab later said 2,750 tons of the stuff , commonly used as fertilizer ( and sometimes to make bombs ) , had been stored for years in a warehouse at the port .
But people still speculated about other culprits .
A few women on my street blamed rivalry between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel .
“ What do they want from us ?
” asked my neighbor rhetorically .
“ Who else but Israel could do this ?
” Israel was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time , formally offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon .
The Lebanese are surprised at their own bad luck .
The country has been undergoing its worst economic crisis in decades , and people are struggling to buy basic necessities .
Earlier in the day , I had written a story on how the price of bread had doubled as a bankrupt government , cash-strapped and loaded with huge debt , had reduced the flour subsidy .
It will get worse : The blast obliterated the port of Beirut .
That was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of grain the country needs to feed itself .
There is a fuel shortage , too .
Electricity is available for two or three hours a day , and nighttime power cuts have been imposed on most , even the middle- and upper-middle classes .
But those travails seemed almost trivial in the aftermath of this tragedy .
As evening fell , and the pain in my foot became unbearable , we borrowed a friend ’ s smashed car ( we ’ re not sure whose ) to drive to another friend ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hospital outside Beirut ; most of the ones in the city were overwhelmed with patients with much more severe injuries .
As the doctors stitched three deep gashes in my neck , a nurse ran her hand through my hair .
“ This is Lebanon , ” she said .
“ This is our destiny .
”

BEIRUT—Had I been sitting in my study, an oval-shaped room with large glass windows, or the dining room, decorated with art deco doors, I could have died. Had I been with my husband, we both could have died.
BEIRUT—Had I been sitting in my study, an oval-shaped room with large glass windows, or the dining room, decorated with art deco doors, I could have died. Had I been with my husband, we both could have died.
I didn’t. We didn’t. We were lucky.
At least 100 people died and an estimated 4,000 were injured as two enormous explosions Tuesday afternoon at Beirut’s port rocked Lebanon’s capital. The second, massive blast enveloped Beirut in dark gray smoke and left the city looking like a war zone. It smashed windows and doors in a 4-mile radius and littered the entire city with chunks of glass. The blast resonated 50 miles away in north Lebanon and was heard 160 miles across the Mediterranean in Cyprus. Close to the port, it was nightmarish.
We lived just over a mile from the harbor. My house in Christian-dominated West Beirut was among those hardest hit.
At 5:30 in the afternoon, I decided to take a break from writing and watch a bit of Netflix. Half an hour later, I heard a loud rumbling. As I looked out on up-market Gemmayze Street, even louder rumbling shook our building, followed by a strong blast of wind that tossed me to the other side of the room.
Shards of glass had pierced my neck, and I picked up a soft toy—luckily lying atop the rubble—and used it to suppress the bleeding. My foot was broken, too, but there was nothing I could do about it. Our house had come crumbling down: The walls were still standing, but all those glass doors and windows were shattered and on the floor.
Terrified and shocked, we wondered if Lebanon was at war. There had been tensions between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah on the southern border just last week. Under the fallen paintings and crushed glass, sofa cushions, and a mound of splintered doors, we searched frantically for our phones, passports, and wallets. Soon after, I limped down through a blood-splattered staircase and met several of my neighbors, who were also bleeding. Some had head wounds; one was found five hours later buried under her cupboard.
The scene outside my house, in the parking lot next to our building, on a street with hipster cafes frequented by locals and expats alike, was straight out of a movie. Soaked in blood, people walked around like zombies. Red Cross workers, from their office on the same street, quickly scrambled to provide first aid.
One of them bandaged my neck and advised me to rush to a doctor to take care of my foot, which was swollen and rotten green. An old man on my left was drenched in blood and hardly breathing. An older woman in front of me was fainting. People tried to help each other as they cried. “Baddak shi?” at least 10 people asked me. “What do you need?”
It’s still not entirely clear if the explosions were the result of an accident or a deliberate attack. Lebanon’s interior minister told a local TV channel that huge quantities of ammonium nitrate stored at the port had likely caused the catastrophe. Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab later said 2,750 metric tons of the stuff, commonly used as fertilizer (and sometimes to make bombs), had been stored for years in a warehouse at the port.
But people still speculated about other culprits. A few women on my street blamed rivalry between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. “What do they want from us?” asked my neighbor rhetorically. “Who else but Israel could do this?” Israel was quick to deny responsibility and, for the first time, formally offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon.
The Lebanese are surprised at their own bad luck. The country has been undergoing its worst economic crisis in decades, and people are struggling to buy basic necessities. Earlier in the day, I had written a story on how the price of bread had doubled as a bankrupt government, cash-strapped and loaded with huge debt, had reduced the flour subsidy. It will get worse: The blast obliterated the port of Beirut. That was the entry point for the overwhelming bulk of grain the country needs to feed itself.
There is a fuel shortage, too. Electricity is available for two or three hours a day, and nighttime power cuts have been imposed on most households, even the middle and upper-middle classes.
But those travails seemed almost trivial in the aftermath of this tragedy. As evening fell, and the pain in my foot became unbearable, we borrowed a friend’s smashed car (we’re not sure whose) to drive to another friend’s house. They drove me to a hospital outside Beirut; most of the ones in the city were overwhelmed with patients with much more severe injuries.
As the doctors stitched three deep gashes in my neck, a nurse ran her hand through my hair.
“This is Lebanon,” she said. “This is our destiny.”


foreignpolicy--2020-08-05--What Caused the Blast in Beirut?

What Caused the Blast in Beirut?

What Caused the Blast in Beirut ?
Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Two explosions in Beirut leave over 100 dead and thousands injured , China pushes back against the United States over TikTok , and Sri Lankans go to the polls in what could be decisive parliamentary elections .
I will be writing Morning Brief while Colm Quinn is on paternity leave .
As always , we welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The cause of the blasts is still undetermined , but Lebanese officials say it was accidental .
Scenes of the damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an outpouring of grief , with several countries offering to assist Lebanon in its recovery efforts , including France , Iran , and the United States .
Abbas Ibrahim , Lebanon ’ s internal security chief , said the ferocity of the blasts was caused by the nearby presence of ammonium nitrate—a substance that is a common fertilizer but is also often used in bomb-making—which he said the government had confiscated from a ship in the city ’ s port several years ago .
According to Al Jazeera ’ s analysis of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knew for more than six years that the ammonium nitrate was stored in Hangar 12 of Beirut ’ s port , ” and did not act to secure or remove it .
Witnesses said they saw a cloud of orange-colored smoke coming from the site of the explosion , an occurrence consistent with explosions involving nitrate .
Something more sinister ?
Despite the assessments given by Lebanese officials , some right-wing media outlets indirectly put the blame on the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah , repeating reports that it housed some of its explosive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also initially abuzz with talk of the group ’ s indirect involvement .
In a statement , Hezbollah did not confirm or deny accusations that it was involved .
“ We extend our condolences to the Lebanese people over this national tragedy , ” the statement said .
Israel , which has sparred with Hezbollah in recent weeks and has carried out attacks in Beirut before , deflected blame .
Speaking on condition of anonymity , an Israeli official said Israel “ had nothing to do ” with the explosion .
Not so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the line being followed by Lebanese officials , giving credence to rumors that the explosion was an intentional attack .
He told reporters that U.S. military leaders “ [ seemed ] to think it was an attack .
It was a bomb of some kind.
” Health care strain .
The accident strains a health care system already under severe pressure from the coronavirus pandemic .
Last week , the Lebanese government reimposed a nationwide lockdown after an alarming spike in new COVID-19 cases .
The rise of new cases and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital ’ s hospitals left Beirut doctors unequipped to deal with Tuesday ’ s emergency .
A Red Cross official said some of those injured had to be moved to hospitals in other parts of Lebanon because those in Beirut were at full capacity .
To make matters worse , several of the city ’ s hospitals , including some of the country ’ s largest ones , were destroyed or damaged in the blast .
Mounting crises .
Tuesday ’ s events add to a barrage of crises Lebanon has faced in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of anti-government protests rocked the country late last year , forcing the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and threatening to bring down the country ’ s entire government .
Despite restrictions imposed by the national lockdown , demonstrations have continued , creating an almost untenable situation for the government .
Lebanon is also in the throes of an economic disaster .
The Lebanese lira has plunged , losing between 85 to 90 percent of its value since September , which helped to fuel the widespread feelings of discontent that led to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has crippled the country ’ s economy , leading to soaring inflation , unemployment , and poverty .
On Monday , Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti resigned amid the deepening financial crisis , warning that the government ’ s inability to stave off the crisis risked turning Lebanon into a “ failed state.
” China won ’ t go quietly over TikTok .
Chinese media outlets have responded to the United States in the ongoing dispute over the popular Chinese social networking giant TikTok , leveling sharp criticism at the Trump administration over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to buy TikTok ’ s operations in the United States .
In an editorial on Tuesday , the China Daily newspaper accused Washington of “ bullying ” Chinese tech companies and warned that there were “ plenty of ways to respond if the administration carries out its planned smash and grab.
” The editor-in-chief of the Global Times newspaper called the move “ open robbery , ” and accused Trump of “ turning the once great America into a rogue country.
” Lukashenko challenges Russia .
On Tuesday , Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 33 mercenaries arrested in Belarus last week were simply using the country as a transit post on the way to other conflict zones , claiming that they were part of a Russian-backed plot to stage a revolution and overthrow him ahead of this weekend ’ s presidential elections .
Lukashenko has served as Belarusian president since the end of the Cold War , but he is currently facing his stiffest challenge to date .
Although long considered pro-Russian , relations between his government and Moscow have deteriorated in recent months due to his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Putin to further deepen ties between the two countries .
Crackdowns in Zimbabwe .
Security forces continue to crack down on anti-government activists in Zimbabwe as President Emmerson Mnangagwa delivered a surprise address in which he labeled the main opposition party “ terrorists.
” Crackdowns began on Friday after the security forces moved to prevent planned anti-government demonstrations from taking place in the capital of Harare .
Several activists , journalists , and opposition figures have been detained since then .
Mnangagwa has come under international pressure to put a stop to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , but Tuesday ’ s speech suggests he does not intend to give in .
“ The bad apples that have attempted to divide our people and to weaken our systems will be flushed out , ” he said .
Sri Lankan democracy on the ropes ?
Sri Lankans head to the polls today in an election that could determine the future of the country ’ s democracy .
Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna ( SLPP ) , a new party which backed the successful candidacy of current President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in November @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seats in the legislature , in part due to a split in the opposition .
Gotabaya ’ s brother , Mahinda , who currently heads the SLPP and serves as caretaker prime minister , has made it known that he wants the party to win more than two-thirds of seats in order to change the constitution and return sweeping powers to the president .
Although the SLPP is expected to top the poll , the performance of several smaller parties—including those representing the interests of Tamil and Muslim minority groups—could keep it from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heading for the hills .
Controversy continues to grip Spain after former King Juan Carlos , who abdicated the throne in 2014 amid a series of scandals , reportedly fled the country amid a new spate of legal troubles .
Spanish media initially reported that he went to the Dominican Republic , but the Dominican government claimed there was no record of the former king entering the country , fuelling widespread speculation over his whereabouts .
Leftist politicians have used the occasion to question the future of the monarchy in Spain .
Juan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s transition to democracy after the end of former dictator Francisco Franco ’ s reign in 1975 .
But his reputation took a hit toward the end of his rule as he became embroiled in several controversies relating to his personal wealth .
Netanyahu ’ s tough talk .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had strong words for those contemplating threatening Israel .
In a speech on Tuesday , he warned that “ we will do what is necessary in order to defend ourselves.
” Netanyahu was speaking in response to mounting tensions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Defense Forces launched a series of air raids on targets in southern Syria on Monday in response to a planned attack in the occupied Golan Heights by militants operating out of Syria .
Israeli outlets reported that the air raids were also in response to the growing threat presented by the Lebanese group Hezbollah .
Wardrobe malfunction .
A prominent evangelical figure in the United States has come under fire for posing on a yacht with his pants unzipped , revealing his underpants .
Jerry Falwell Jr. , a vocal supporter of Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evangelical movement , was apparently portraying a character from the TV show Trailer Park Boys .
Posted to Instagram , the image has since been deleted , but not before it was shared on Twitter .
Critics said Falwell ’ s outfit was inconsistent with the strict dress code imposed by Liberty University , where he serves as president .
The university does not allow skirts shorter than two inches above the knee , and men are not permitted to wear shorts to class .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Two explosions in Beirut leave over 100 dead and thousands injured, China pushes back against the United States over TikTok , and Sri Lankans go to the polls in what could be decisive parliamentary elections .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Two explosions in Beirut leave over 100 dead and thousands injured, China pushes back against the United States over TikTok, and Sri Lankans go to the polls in what could be decisive parliamentary elections.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Thousands Injured in Beirut Blasts A pair of explosions rocked the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Tuesday, leaving at least 100 people dead and more than 4,000 injured, according to figures supplied by the country’s health minister. The damage to buildings was so widespread that an estimated 200,000 and 250,000 people have lost their homes, according to Beirut Governor Marwan Abboud.
The cause of the blasts is still undetermined, but Lebanese officials say it was accidental. Scenes of the damage were broadcast across the world, leading to an outpouring of grief, with several countries offering to assist Lebanon in its recovery efforts, including France, Iran, and the United States.
Abbas Ibrahim, Lebanon’s internal security chief, said the ferocity of the blasts was caused by the nearby presence of ammonium nitrate—a substance that is a common fertilizer but is also often used in bomb-making—which he said the government had confiscated from a ship in the city’s port several years ago.
According to Al Jazeera’s analysis of public records, “senior Lebanese officials knew for more than six years that the ammonium nitrate was stored in Hangar 12 of Beirut’s port,” and did not act to secure or remove it.
Witnesses said they saw a cloud of orange-colored smoke coming from the site of the explosion, an occurrence consistent with explosions involving nitrate.
Something more sinister? Despite the assessments given by Lebanese officials, some right-wing media outlets indirectly put the blame on the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, repeating reports that it housed some of its explosive material in the city. Twitter was also initially abuzz with talk of the group’s indirect involvement. In a statement, Hezbollah did not confirm or deny accusations that it was involved. “We extend our condolences to the Lebanese people over this national tragedy,” the statement said.
Israel, which has sparred with Hezbollah in recent weeks and has carried out attacks in Beirut before, deflected blame. Speaking on condition of anonymity, an Israeli official said Israel “had nothing to do” with the explosion.
Not so sure. U.S. President Donald Trump departed from the line being followed by Lebanese officials, giving credence to rumors that the explosion was an intentional attack. He told reporters that U.S. military leaders “[seemed] to think it was an attack. It was a bomb of some kind.”
Health care strain. The accident strains a health care system already under severe pressure from the coronavirus pandemic. Last week, the Lebanese government reimposed a nationwide lockdown after an alarming spike in new COVID-19 cases. The rise of new cases and the resulting strain it has put on the capital’s hospitals left Beirut doctors unequipped to deal with Tuesday’s emergency. A Red Cross official said some of those injured had to be moved to hospitals in other parts of Lebanon because those in Beirut were at full capacity. To make matters worse, several of the city’s hospitals, including some of the country’s largest ones, were destroyed or damaged in the blast.
Mounting crises. Tuesday’s events add to a barrage of crises Lebanon has faced in the last several months. A wave of anti-government protests rocked the country late last year, forcing the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and threatening to bring down the country’s entire government. Despite restrictions imposed by the national lockdown, demonstrations have continued, creating an almost untenable situation for the government.
Lebanon is also in the throes of an economic disaster. The Lebanese lira has plunged, losing between 85 to 90 percent of its value since September, which helped to fuel the widespread feelings of discontent that led to the anti-government protests. The resulting financial collapse has crippled the country’s economy, leading to soaring inflation, unemployment, and poverty. On Monday, Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti resigned amid the deepening financial crisis, warning that the government’s inability to stave off the crisis risked turning Lebanon into a “failed state.”
What We’re Following Today
China won’t go quietly over TikTok. Chinese media outlets have responded to the United States in the ongoing dispute over the popular Chinese social networking giant TikTok, leveling sharp criticism at the Trump administration over its recent attempt to pressure U.S. companies to buy TikTok’s operations in the United States.
In an editorial on Tuesday, the China Daily newspaper accused Washington of “bullying” Chinese tech companies and warned that there were “plenty of ways to respond if the administration carries out its planned smash and grab.” The editor-in-chief of the Global Times newspaper called the move “open robbery,” and accused Trump of “turning the once great America into a rogue country.”
Lukashenko challenges Russia. On Tuesday, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko pushed back strongly on Russian claims that 33 mercenaries arrested in Belarus last week were simply using the country as a transit post on the way to other conflict zones, claiming that they were part of a Russian-backed plot to stage a revolution and overthrow him ahead of this weekend’s presidential elections.
Lukashenko has served as Belarusian president since the end of the Cold War, but he is currently facing his stiffest challenge to date. Although long considered pro-Russian, relations between his government and Moscow have deteriorated in recent months due to his resistance to attempts by Russian President Vladimir Putin to further deepen ties between the two countries.
Crackdowns in Zimbabwe. Security forces continue to crack down on anti-government activists in Zimbabwe as President Emmerson Mnangagwa delivered a surprise address in which he labeled the main opposition party “terrorists.” Crackdowns began on Friday after the security forces moved to prevent planned anti-government demonstrations from taking place in the capital of Harare. Several activists, journalists, and opposition figures have been detained since then.
Mnangagwa has come under international pressure to put a stop to the human rights abuses taking place in his country, but Tuesday’s speech suggests he does not intend to give in. “The bad apples that have attempted to divide our people and to weaken our systems will be flushed out,” he said.
Keep an Eye On
Sri Lankan democracy on the ropes? Sri Lankans head to the polls today in an election that could determine the future of the country’s democracy. Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), a new party which backed the successful candidacy of current President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in November, is expected to win the most seats in the legislature, in part due to a split in the opposition.
Gotabaya’s brother, Mahinda, who currently heads the SLPP and serves as caretaker prime minister, has made it known that he wants the party to win more than two-thirds of seats in order to change the constitution and return sweeping powers to the president. Although the SLPP is expected to top the poll, the performance of several smaller parties—including those representing the interests of Tamil and Muslim minority groups—could keep it from securing a supermajority.
Former Spanish king heading for the hills. Controversy continues to grip Spain after former King Juan Carlos, who abdicated the throne in 2014 amid a series of scandals, reportedly fled the country amid a new spate of legal troubles. Spanish media initially reported that he went to the Dominican Republic, but the Dominican government claimed there was no record of the former king entering the country, fuelling widespread speculation over his whereabouts. Leftist politicians have used the occasion to question the future of the monarchy in Spain.
Juan Carlos is credited with spearheading Spain’s transition to democracy after the end of former dictator Francisco Franco’s reign in 1975. But his reputation took a hit toward the end of his rule as he became embroiled in several controversies relating to his personal wealth.
Netanyahu’s tough talk. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had strong words for those contemplating threatening Israel. In a speech on Tuesday, he warned that “we will do what is necessary in order to defend ourselves.”
Netanyahu was speaking in response to mounting tensions between Israel and Syria. The Israel Defense Forces launched a series of air raids on targets in southern Syria on Monday in response to a planned attack in the occupied Golan Heights by militants operating out of Syria. Israeli outlets reported that the air raids were also in response to the growing threat presented by the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Odds and Ends
Wardrobe malfunction. A prominent evangelical figure in the United States has come under fire for posing on a yacht with his pants unzipped, revealing his underpants. Jerry Falwell Jr., a vocal supporter of Trump and a leader of the hugely influential evangelical movement, was apparently portraying a character from the TV show Trailer Park Boys. Posted to Instagram, the image has since been deleted, but not before it was shared on Twitter.
Critics said Falwell’s outfit was inconsistent with the strict dress code imposed by Liberty University, where he serves as president. The university does not allow skirts shorter than two inches above the knee, and men are not permitted to wear shorts to class.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-06--Beirut’s Deadly Blast Reignites Anger Against Lebanon’s Ruling Elite

BEIRUT—As rescue crews continued to claw through the rubble on Wednesday , searching for survivors , the Lebanese people were searching for answers—and a reckoning .
Miles away from the gigantic crater at Beirut ’ s port , devastated Tuesday by twin blasts from an apparent explosion of ammonium nitrate , buildings lay in rubble , glass and debris covered the ground , and electric wire hung in the streets .
Meanwhile , Lebanese are trying to clean up the capital—and clean up the country .
“ As soon as the rubble is clear , we will be back in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one of thousands of volunteers from across the country who came to the capital to help with the cleanup effort .
There are still many unanswered questions about what led to Tuesday ’ s devastating blasts , which appeared to stem from the long-term storage of 2,750 metric tons of explosive material used for fertilizer , but here almost everyone is blaming the government and the country ’ s political elite .
Online , activists called for a nationwide protest—using the image of a noose .
The blasts , strong enough to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , killed at least 135 and left thousands injured in Beirut .
The numbers will climb the more rescue crews dig .
With so little trust in Lebanon ’ s government—the country was wracked by months of protests since October—theories fill the air .
Lebanese point at everything from a plot to distract from the country ’ s dire economic problems to a plan to upstage the announcement of the verdict in the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri , scheduled for Friday and now delayed .
Others speculated that it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cache , but none had evidence .
Some posted photos claiming to show pieces of rockets .
All the confusion has only added to resentment against the government .
The government was already failing in its efforts to find a solution to Lebanon ’ s financial woes—heavily indebted , in default , with a near-worthless currency and little foreign exchange , and with food in increasingly short supply .
The worst blast the country has ever seen , likely caused by government negligence , has only redoubled resentment .
Lebanon has been in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fund to reach a deal that would unlock billions of dollars of badly needed cash .
But there is no agreement among Lebanon ’ s political leaders , as each faction tries to secure its own interests .
Lebanon , meanwhile , sinks deeper into the mire .
“ This is the first time since the Phoenician era that we don ’ t have a port in Beirut.
” Beirut ’ s mayor speculated Wednesday that it could take a year or two to rebuild the city .
Given the devastation , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ main port—the entry gate for nearly all of its grain imports and nearly everything else—was all but flattened .
“ This is the first time since the Phoenician era that we don ’ t have a port in Beirut , ” said Nohad el-Machnouk , a member of parliament surveying the damage flanked by two bodyguards .
“ The most important thing is that there should be an international investigation—most of the Lebanese people don ’ t trust the government and the Lebanese investigation , ” added Machnouk , himself a subject of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corruption .
The government put several port officials under house arrest and is promising a full investigation .
Few in the streets on Wednesday had any faith in that investigation or their politicians .
“ When we started the protests , we should have stayed in the street and put all those thieves behind bars , ” said Khayber Khoury , as he swept up glass .
He has been in the streets since anti-government protests started in October ; like so many here , he is now unemployed .
“ This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uprising.
” A woman in her 80s walked through the smashed streets of her neighborhood carrying a small shopping bag .
Her apartment was completely destroyed .
“ Who is going to help me rebuild ?
The government won ’ t help us , ” she said .
She lived through Lebanon ’ s civil war .
Never , she said , had she seen anything as bad as this .
As the day went on , buses arrived from the northern city of Tripoli , with those inside chanting against the government—and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so tortured Lebanon .
“ We have the coronavirus , poverty , hunger , and humiliation , ” one yelled .
Another , Mohamad Yeghe , railed from inside the bus against a leadership that has failed him .
Some countries have stepped up to offer support , medical supplies , and crews to help Lebanon , but Yeghe wants a different sort of assistance .
“ We ask the United Nations , the European Union , and the Gulf countries to help us to remove those corrupt people because we can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .
“ We need any help from the outside , please .
”

BEIRUT—As rescue crews continued to claw through the rubble on Wednesday, searching for survivors, the Lebanese people were searching for answers—and a reckoning.
BEIRUT—As rescue crews continued to claw through the rubble on Wednesday, searching for survivors, the Lebanese people were searching for answers—and a reckoning.
Miles away from the gigantic crater at Beirut’s port, devastated Tuesday by twin blasts from an apparent explosion of ammonium nitrate, buildings lay in rubble, glass and debris covered the ground, and electric wire hung in the streets. Meanwhile, Lebanese are trying to clean up the capital—and clean up the country.
“As soon as the rubble is clear, we will be back in the streets,” said Hussian al-Hayba, one of thousands of volunteers from across the country who came to the capital to help with the cleanup effort.
There are still many unanswered questions about what led to Tuesday’s devastating blasts, which appeared to stem from the long-term storage of 2,750 metric tons of explosive material used for fertilizer, but here almost everyone is blaming the government and the country’s political elite. Online, activists called for a nationwide protest—using the image of a noose.
The blasts, strong enough to register as an earthquake two countries away, killed at least 135 and left thousands injured in Beirut. The numbers will climb the more rescue crews dig.
With so little trust in Lebanon’s government—the country was wracked by months of protests since October—theories fill the air. Lebanese point at everything from a plot to distract from the country’s dire economic problems to a plan to upstage the announcement of the verdict in the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, scheduled for Friday and now delayed. Others speculated that it was an Israeli airstrike on a Hezbollah weapons cache, but none had evidence. Some posted photos claiming to show pieces of rockets. All the confusion has only added to resentment against the government.
A Devastated Port
The government was already failing in its efforts to find a solution to Lebanon’s financial woes—heavily indebted, in default, with a near-worthless currency and little foreign exchange, and with food in increasingly short supply. The worst blast the country has ever seen, likely caused by government negligence, has only redoubled resentment. Lebanon has been in talks for months with the International Monetary Fund to reach a deal that would unlock billions of dollars of badly needed cash. But there is no agreement among Lebanon’s political leaders, as each faction tries to secure its own interests. Lebanon, meanwhile, sinks deeper into the mire.
“This is the first time since the Phoenician era that we don’t have a port in Beirut.”
Beirut’s mayor speculated Wednesday that it could take a year or two to rebuild the city. Given the devastation, that seems optimistic. The country’s main port—the entry gate for nearly all of its grain imports and nearly everything else—was all but flattened.
“This is the first time since the Phoenician era that we don’t have a port in Beirut,” said Nohad el-Machnouk, a member of parliament surveying the damage flanked by two bodyguards. “The most important thing is that there should be an international investigation—most of the Lebanese people don’t trust the government and the Lebanese investigation,” added
Machnouk, himself a subject of that very distrust and of suspicions of corruption.
The government put several port officials under house arrest and is promising a full investigation. Few in the streets on Wednesday had any faith in that investigation or their politicians.
“When we started the protests, we should have stayed in the street and put all those thieves behind bars,” said Khayber Khoury, as he swept up glass. He has been in the streets since anti-government protests started in October; like so many here, he is now unemployed. “This is not a revolution. This is an uprising.”
A woman in her 80s walked through the smashed streets of her neighborhood carrying a small shopping bag. Her apartment was completely destroyed.
“Who is going to help me rebuild? The government won’t help us,” she said. She lived through Lebanon’s civil war. Never, she said, had she seen anything as bad as this.
As the day went on, buses arrived from the northern city of Tripoli, with those inside chanting against the government—and against the maelstrom of ills that have so tortured Lebanon.
“We have the coronavirus, poverty, hunger, and humiliation,” one yelled.
Another, Mohamad Yeghe, railed from inside the bus against a leadership that has failed him. Some countries have stepped up to offer support, medical supplies, and crews to help Lebanon, but Yeghe wants a different sort of assistance.
“We ask the United Nations, the European Union, and the Gulf countries to help us to remove those corrupt people because we can’t do anything to them alone,” he said. “We need any help from the outside, please.”


foreignpolicy--2020-08-05--What’s Next for TikTok?

What’s Next for TikTok?

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s China Brief .
The highlights this week : The future is in flux for TikTok after Trump ’ s threat to ban the video-sharing app , a rare firsthand account emerges from a detention center in Xinjiang , and the Chinese leadership goes on retreat in Beidaihe .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
Days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced—seemingly impromptu—that he planned to ban TikTok , owned by the Chinese firm ByteDance , the fate of the popular video-sharing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flux .
While it would be possible to place restrictions on ByteDance or possibly to directly force it to divest from the United States , banning an app outright is legally difficult in the United States .
An acquisition of TikTok by Microsoft now seems to be going ahead with Trump ’ s blessing—although he suggested , in true protection racket style , that Microsoft should pay a percentage of the sale to the U.S. Treasury .
The Trump administration followed up Wednesday with the announcement of a wide-ranging but unclear Clean Networks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and explicitly targeting China .
TikTok exemplifies the challenges of decoupling in a globalized era .
U.S. worries about Chinese misuse of user data are justified , given the startling amount of information the app collects .
But fears of influence campaigns are more nebulous , though some data suggests that TikTok bolsters pro-Chinese videos and censors others .
Analysts worry that fixating on a single app may distract from a much wider spectrum of threats .
Even if Microsoft acquires TikTok , stripping away the Western component of the app from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ logistical nightmare—and fears of backdoors allowing Chinese state access will continue .
As Nina Palmer argues in Foreign Policy , a coerced sale may actually cause greater retaliation from China than a direct ban .
Beijing reacted vehemently to the move , describing it as a “ smash and grab.
” Direct retaliation against U.S. firms may well follow , with forced divestments likely .
Topping off another bad week for China-U.S. relations , the Trump administration announced that U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar would visit Taiwan on an unspecified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to visit the nation in decades .
The visit will prompt the usual tantrums from Beijing , but it makes sense given Taiwan ’ s record success against the coronavirus .
Taiwan is in a fraught position : While it has stronger support in Washington than ever , the possibility of Chinese invasion is also higher than at any point in decades .
Uighur testimony .
The detained Uighur model Merdan Ghappar has managed to send a rare dispatch from directly inside Xinjiang ’ s carceral system .
Ghappar served 16 months in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grams of marijuana and was then forcibly sent back to Xinjiang from Guangdong , where he worked as a model for online stores , in January 2020 .
Ghappar was able to retrieve and hide his phone while in detention , sending a series of messages and videos to family that were recently published by the BBC and others .
Ghappar ’ s messages end around Feb. 29 .
He describes conditions of horrifying neglect and cruelty , including overcrowding at the height of the pandemic , beatings , and the torture of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Xinjiang have recently received new attention in Europe , after new footage emerged and in part thanks to a rise in anti-China sentiment due to COVID-19 .
Celebrities such as the Swedish singer Zara Larsson are reassessing the moral and reputational costs of association with Chinese firms .
On the U.S. side , the NBA has shuttered its training academy in Xinjiang , where an investigation found rampant abuse and anti-Uighur racism .
Summer leadership vacation .
Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top leaders are likely to vanish from public view in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retreat at Beidaihe , a seaside town where the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) leadership engages in a combination of vacation and Machiavellian plotting .
The retreat has often provided a chance for retired leaders to shape the party ’ s direction , but with Xi ’ s seeming ascent to absolute power , their role has been reduced .
But any opportunity for a significant number of power brokers to physically spend time together is also an opportunity to plot .
If the whispers of discontent with Xi ’ s leadership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be after one such event .
Blast memories .
The horrifying destruction in Beirut is bringing back memories of the 2015 blast that killed at least 173 people and caused $ 9 billion in damage in the port of Tianjin , northern China .
As in Beirut , the Tianjin explosion came from a fire in a stockpile of ammonium nitrate—but the sprawl of the city meant that the disaster was far less devastating , since it mostly hit warehouses rather than residential neighborhoods , despite the lives lost .
As looks likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of regulation caused the Tianjin blast .
While a few officials were prosecuted as a result , the censorship that follows Chinese disasters prevented any wider discussions of the problems behind it .
Some Chinese posters this week raised the issue of how censorship prevented global sympathy for Tianjin ; their posts were deleted .
Electricity usage soars .
China ’ s state electric grid saw net profits plunge by 81 percent in the first half of this year—though , due to its monopoly , that still meant $ 811 million in profits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the same day , Aug. 5 , as electricity usage saw an all-time high , driven mostly by boiling hot temperatures causing people to turn their air conditioning up .
Electricity usage is often a convenient proxy for economic activity in China , thanks to unreliable official GDP statistics .
Apple court battle .
A $ 1.4 billion lawsuit against Apple for alleged patent infringement is going ahead in China after favorable court rulings in June .
The suit , filed by the Shanghai firm Xiao-I , alleges that the U.S. giant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistant Siri .
Apple , which is heavily invested in China , is often a punching bag for nationalistic feelings .
Given that China ’ s courts are an appendage of the CCP , potential future rulings may be more influenced by U.S.-China tensions than actual facts .
More app bans .
India ’ s bans on Chinese apps continue to grow , with Xiaomi ’ s Mi Browser among the latest thrown on the pile , along with the search engine Baidu and Weibo—neither of which was particularly popular among Indian users @ @ @ @ @ @ @ combination of performative nationalism on the Indian side and the growing realization of just how many apps in the Indian market have Chinese roots .
Indian officials hoping for a domestic boost are likely to be disappointed as users turn to virtual private networks or American alternatives .
Mao ’ s Third Front : The Militarization of Cold War China , by Covell Meyskens In 1964 , China began a massive program of military industrialization in anticipation of a future war with either the Soviet Union or the United States .
The “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the country—which , like Siberia for the Soviet Union during World War II , was safely away from potential front lines .
Covell Meyskens skillfully charts the impact and scope of the project , which was hidden from the outside world despite mobilizing 15 million people .
Like most Chinese government-backed programs , inefficiency , corruption , and waste were rampant—but some factories still operating today have their roots in the program .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: The future is in flux for TikTok after Trump’s threat to ban the video-sharing app, a rare firsthand account emerges from a detention center in Xinjiang , and the Chinese leadership goes on retreat in Beidaihe.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: The future is in flux for TikTok after Trump’s threat to ban the video-sharing app, a rare firsthand account emerges from a detention center in Xinjiang, and the Chinese leadership goes on retreat in Beidaihe.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
Coerced TikTok Sale Could Prompt Beijing’s Retaliation
Days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced—seemingly impromptu—that he planned to ban TikTok, owned by the Chinese firm ByteDance, the fate of the popular video-sharing app in the United States remains in flux. While it would be possible to place restrictions on ByteDance or possibly to directly force it to divest from the United States, banning an app outright is legally difficult in the United States.
An acquisition of TikTok by Microsoft now seems to be going ahead with Trump’s blessing—although he suggested, in true protection racket style, that Microsoft should pay a percentage of the sale to the U.S. Treasury. The Trump administration followed up Wednesday with the announcement of a wide-ranging but unclear Clean Networks program aimed at strengthening U.S. internet security and explicitly targeting China.
TikTok exemplifies the challenges of decoupling in a globalized era. U.S. worries about Chinese misuse of user data are justified, given the startling amount of information the app collects. But fears of influence campaigns are more nebulous, though some data suggests that TikTok bolsters pro-Chinese videos and censors others. Analysts worry that fixating on a single app may distract from a much wider spectrum of threats.
Even if Microsoft acquires TikTok, stripping away the Western component of the app from the rest of the world will be a logistical nightmare—and fears of backdoors allowing Chinese state access will continue. As Nina Palmer argues in Foreign Policy, a coerced sale may actually cause greater retaliation from China than a direct ban. Beijing reacted vehemently to the move, describing it as a “smash and grab.” Direct retaliation against U.S. firms may well follow, with forced divestments likely.
Topping off another bad week for China-U.S. relations, the Trump administration announced that U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar would visit Taiwan on an unspecified date, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the nation in decades. The visit will prompt the usual tantrums from Beijing, but it makes sense given Taiwan’s record success against the coronavirus. Taiwan is in a fraught position: While it has stronger support in Washington than ever, the possibility of Chinese invasion is also higher than at any point in decades.
[$ad1]
What We’re Following
Uighur testimony. The detained Uighur model Merdan Ghappar has managed to send a rare dispatch from directly inside Xinjiang’s carceral system. Ghappar served 16 months in prison in 2018 for allegedly selling five grams of marijuana and was then forcibly sent back to Xinjiang from Guangdong, where he worked as a model for online stores, in January 2020.
Ghappar was able to retrieve and hide his phone while in detention, sending a series of messages and videos to family that were recently published by the BBC and others. Ghappar’s messages end around Feb. 29. He describes conditions of horrifying neglect and cruelty, including overcrowding at the height of the pandemic, beatings, and the torture of elderly prisoners.
The ongoing atrocities in Xinjiang have recently received new attention in Europe, after new footage emerged and in part thanks to a rise in anti-China sentiment due to COVID-19. Celebrities such as the Swedish singer Zara Larsson are reassessing the moral and reputational costs of association with Chinese firms. On the U.S. side, the NBA has shuttered its training academy in Xinjiang, where an investigation found rampant abuse and anti-Uighur racism.
Summer leadership vacation. Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top leaders are likely to vanish from public view in the next few days for the annual retreat at Beidaihe, a seaside town where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership engages in a combination of vacation and Machiavellian plotting. The retreat has often provided a chance for retired leaders to shape the party’s direction, but with Xi’s seeming ascent to absolute power, their role has been reduced.
But any opportunity for a significant number of power brokers to physically spend time together is also an opportunity to plot. If the whispers of discontent with Xi’s leadership ever coalesce into action, it will be after one such event.
Blast memories. The horrifying destruction in Beirut is bringing back memories of the 2015 blast that killed at least 173 people and caused $9 billion in damage in the port of Tianjin, northern China. As in Beirut, the Tianjin explosion came from a fire in a stockpile of ammonium nitrate—but the sprawl of the city meant that the disaster was far less devastating, since it mostly hit warehouses rather than residential neighborhoods, despite the lives lost.
As looks likely in Beirut, endemic corruption and lack of regulation caused the Tianjin blast. While a few officials were prosecuted as a result, the censorship that follows Chinese disasters prevented any wider discussions of the problems behind it. Some Chinese posters this week raised the issue of how censorship prevented global sympathy for Tianjin; their posts were deleted.
Tech and Business
Electricity usage soars. China’s state electric grid saw net profits plunge by 81 percent in the first half of this year—though, due to its monopoly, that still meant $811 million in profits. The figures were reported by Caixin on the same day, Aug. 5, as electricity usage saw an all-time high, driven mostly by boiling hot temperatures causing people to turn their air conditioning up. Electricity usage is often a convenient proxy for economic activity in China, thanks to unreliable official GDP statistics.
Apple court battle. A $1.4 billion lawsuit against Apple for alleged patent infringement is going ahead in China after favorable court rulings in June. The suit, filed by the Shanghai firm Xiao-I, alleges that the U.S. giant used patented technology to build the voice assistant Siri. Apple, which is heavily invested in China, is often a punching bag for nationalistic feelings. Given that China’s courts are an appendage of the CCP, potential future rulings may be more influenced by U.S.-China tensions than actual facts.
More app bans. India’s bans on Chinese apps continue to grow, with Xiaomi’s Mi Browser among the latest thrown on the pile, along with the search engine Baidu and Weibo—neither of which was particularly popular among Indian users. The additions seem to reflect a combination of performative nationalism on the Indian side and the growing realization of just how many apps in the Indian market have Chinese roots.
Indian officials hoping for a domestic boost are likely to be disappointed as users turn to virtual private networks or American alternatives.
What We’re Reading
Mao’s Third Front: The Militarization of Cold War China, by Covell Meyskens
In 1964, China began a massive program of military industrialization in anticipation of a future war with either the Soviet Union or the United States. The “third front” referred to the interior of the country—which, like Siberia for the Soviet Union during World War II, was safely away from potential front lines.
Covell Meyskens skillfully charts the impact and scope of the project, which was hidden from the outside world despite mobilizing 15 million people. Like most Chinese government-backed programs, inefficiency, corruption, and waste were rampant—but some factories still operating today have their roots in the program.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-08-05--Kashmiris Lament the Loss of Their Youth

Kashmiris Lament the Loss of Their Youth In the early days of August 2019 , Kashmiris knew that something strange was afoot : TV channels went off the air , the internet was cut off , tourists were asked to leave , and a strict curfew was imposed .
Then , on Aug. 5 , New Delhi announced it was revoking the semiautonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir , bringing it under the central government ’ s direct control .
At the time , in a speech announcing the move , Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi explained that the decision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market and improve its economy .
But one year later , there are few signs of progress .
According to a report published last month by a civil rights group , the region has incurred nearly $ 5.3 billion in economic losses since New Delhi ’ s move to downgrade its status .
While much of the country has struggled under pandemic-induced lockdowns , Kashmiris have in effect lived with those conditions for a full year .
But for most Kashmiris , the stripping of their political autonomy is not a real shock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And that is because most of them were born in a land where young men commonly picked up guns to fight for independence from the Indian state , and they grew up in a region where curfews , military operations , and extrajudicial killings were the order of the day.While much of the country has struggled under pandemic-induced lockdowns , Kashmiris have in effect lived with those conditions for a full year .
About 69 percent of the around 12 million people living in Jammu and Kashmir are under the age of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been in quasi-lockdown for most of their lives .
A Kashmiri politician once joked to me that local children learned the word azaadi , or freedom , before they learned to call out their mother ’ s name .
The state of Jammu and Kashmir used to include the Hindu-majority Jammu , the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley , and the largely Buddhist Ladakh .
While no region was spared the unrest , it is the Kashmir Valley that has suffered the most in economic terms .
After a rigged election in 1987 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And with the help of Pakistan , there was a full-blown insurgency in the Kashmir Valley in 1989 , which pushed separatist leaders toward militancy .
Many Kashmiri Hindus were expelled from the state .
The region never recovered from that conflict .
Since 2016 , when I first started reporting from Kashmir , I have met many Kashmiris who were born after 1989 and for whom the very definition of a normal life is different than that of most Indians .
Truck and bus drivers overwork when they can , because they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Doctors are used to looking at bullet wounds .
Mental health professionals deal with post-traumatic stress disorder patients like doctors elsewhere treat the flu .
Lawyers regularly defend young boys charged with sedition or terrorist activities .
The state is the biggest employer in Kashmir , and private sector investment is negligible due to the constant violence between security forces and militants .
As a result , young Kashmiris see state government jobs as their route to stability .
But a small subset of Kashmiri youth who were educated in larger Indian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of entrepreneurship even amid the turmoil .
Consider the story of Mir Saqib , a 34-year-old entrepreneur who is considering filing for bankruptcy .
Most of Saqib ’ s primary education in Srinagar took place at home , because schools remained shut for about eight months a year in the 1990s .
Every time there was militant-related violence , educational institutions were closed .
Around the time Saqib should have been in school , his peers in other Indian cities were having a very different experience .
In 1991 , in the face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took the difficult medicine of opening up its economy to the world , putting in place fiscal reforms that would set it on the path to rapid growth for the next two decades .
While young Indians began to dream of lives on par with those of their global peers , Kashmiri youth would often harbor hopes of joining their region ’ s separatist movement .
Kashmiris expected the economy to bounce back in 1996 when a local party , the National Conference , was elected to the state government and New Delhi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Things turned out differently .
In 1999 , after the Kargil War between India and Pakistan , militant attacks on Indian paramilitary forces stationed in Kashmir sharply increased .
These suicide attacks ushered in further militarization to the valley .
Today , there is one armed personnel for every seven civilians in the region .
In 2007 , when Saqib enrolled in an engineering college , little did he know that the valley would come to a complete standstill the following year .
In 2008 , the Indian National Congress-led government in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of forest land to Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board , a trust that governs the famous Hindu pilgrimage to the Amarnath temple .
More than 500,000 Kashmiris marched in protest , rejecting what they felt was an Indian takeover of Kashmiri land .
Kashmir remained shut for most of that year.Kashmiris expected the economy to bounce back in 1996 .
Things turned out differently .
While Saqib ’ s national peers were dreaming of packing their bags for coveted jobs in Silicon Valley , Kashmiri students were struggling to get to class .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disrupted once again when Kashmiris took to the streets to protest extrajudicial killings of Kashmiri youth .
The protests left around 120 people dead .
Finally , in 2011 , Saqib graduated as an engineer from Kashmir University .
He decided to set up a bottled water plant and called his product Kolahai , which is the name of the glacier where the Jhelum , Kashmir ’ s major river , originates .
His business began to pick up when he started receiving contracts to supply water at weddings across the valley .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ juices and teas .
A new twist emerged in 2014 .
A pro-Hindu government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party ’ s Narendra Modi was elected in New Delhi .
The party joined hands with a Kashmiri group called the Peoples Democratic Party and formed a government in the state .
Since their visions for the state were different , the government was unstable and insecure .
The arrival of smartphones and high-speed internet further shook the region ’ s tenuous social contract .
Messages from separatist leaders reached the phones of Kashmiris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumed video messages from young militants such as Burhan Muzaffar Wani , a charismatic commander of the militant organization Hizbul Mujahideen , making the case for Kashmiri independence .
In 2016 , when Wani was killed by Indian forces , tens of thousands of Kashmiris attended his funeral .
The state essentially ground to a halt for almost five months .
And the authorities , realizing the revolutionary power of social media and the internet , began to respond for the first time by shutting down certain apps and restricting internet speeds in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which had access to arms , the Kashmiris who came of age in the 2000s had to resort to stones as their weapons of choice .
Every Friday , after the afternoon prayers at Srinagar ’ s main mosque , young men flooded the streets to throw stones at the security forces .
Over a period of time this type of protest became merely symbolic .
Saqib shuttered his factory for long periods in 2016 .
There aren ’ t many weddings in a society that grieves the loss of its freedom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up .
Saqib had borrowed money from banks , which he somehow managed to repay by the end of 2018 .
Hoping the economy would look up in 2019 , Saqib began to once again dream of restoring his business to its former glory .
But then , exactly one year ago , the Bharatiya Janata Party fulfilled its campaign promise and downgraded the status of Kashmir to a union territory , bringing it under New Delhi ’ s control .
And it did so while once again imposing strict curfews and shutting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in history for a democracy .
This time , Saqib would finally give up dreaming : “ Now , I know nothing will ever go back to how it was again , ” he said.Unlike the previous generation , which had access to arms , the Kashmiris who came of age in the 2000s had to resort to stones as their weapons of choice .
In the past 12 months , New Delhi has passed successive laws that Kashmiris fear will open up their lands and ecology for exploitation , while stripping them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , New Delhi can now decide who gets to live in Kashmir , a legal change that could end up transforming the region ’ s demographics .
Every time I talk to a young Kashmiri , I sense fatigue and a sense of hopelessness about their future .
However , most conversations end with them suggesting that they will fight to reclaim their freedom .
The Indian government seems to understand this sentiment well , which perhaps explains why it continues to curtail the speed of the internet there .
When the internet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protests is ever-present .
But without the internet , real investment and growth in the region is impossible to imagine .
Jammu and Kashmir had a monthly average unemployment rate of 15 percent between January 2016 and July 2019 , according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy .
This is more than double the national average of 6.4 percent during the same period .
But Saqib says his generation doesn ’ t see unemployment as its greatest burden .
“ We have lost our youth , our dreams , and our future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is what we ’ d want back .
”

In the early days of August 2019, Kashmiris knew that something strange was afoot: TV channels went off the air, the internet was cut off, tourists were asked to leave, and a strict curfew was imposed. Then, on Aug. 5, New Delhi announced it was revoking the semiautonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, bringing it under the central government’s direct control.
In the early days of August 2019, Kashmiris knew that something strange was afoot: TV channels went off the air, the internet was cut off, tourists were asked to leave, and a strict curfew was imposed. Then, on Aug. 5, New Delhi announced it was revoking the semiautonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, bringing it under the central government’s direct control.
At the time, in a speech announcing the move, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi explained that the decision would better integrate Kashmir into the national market and improve its economy. But one year later, there are few signs of progress. According to a report published last month by a civil rights group, the region has incurred nearly $5.3 billion in economic losses since New Delhi’s move to downgrade its status.
While much of the country has struggled under pandemic-induced lockdowns, Kashmiris have in effect lived with those conditions for a full year. But for most Kashmiris, the stripping of their political autonomy is not a real shock. It is frustrating but not surprising. And that is because most of them were born in a land where young men commonly picked up guns to fight for independence from the Indian state, and they grew up in a region where curfews, military operations, and extrajudicial killings were the order of the day.While much of the country has struggled under pandemic-induced lockdowns, Kashmiris have in effect lived with those conditions for a full year.
About 69 percent of the around 12 million people living in Jammu and Kashmir are under the age of 35. For them, the state has been in quasi-lockdown for most of their lives. A Kashmiri politician once joked to me that local children learned the word azaadi, or freedom, before they learned to call out their mother’s name.
The state of Jammu and Kashmir used to include the Hindu-majority Jammu, the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, and the largely Buddhist Ladakh. While no region was spared the unrest, it is the Kashmir Valley that has suffered the most in economic terms.
After a rigged election in 1987, Kashmiri resentment toward India increased exponentially. And with the help of Pakistan, there was a full-blown insurgency in the Kashmir Valley in 1989, which pushed separatist leaders toward militancy. Many Kashmiri Hindus were expelled from the state. The region never recovered from that conflict.
Since 2016, when I first started reporting from Kashmir, I have met many Kashmiris who were born after 1989 and for whom the very definition of a normal life is different than that of most Indians. Truck and bus drivers overwork when they can, because they might be grounded anytime due to curfews. Doctors are used to looking at bullet wounds. Mental health professionals deal with post-traumatic stress disorder patients like doctors elsewhere treat the flu. Lawyers regularly defend young boys charged with sedition or terrorist activities.
The state is the biggest employer in Kashmir, and private sector investment is negligible due to the constant violence between security forces and militants. As a result, young Kashmiris see state government jobs as their route to stability. But a small subset of Kashmiri youth who were educated in larger Indian cities and in countries abroad harbor dreams of entrepreneurship even amid the turmoil.
Consider the story of Mir Saqib, a 34-year-old entrepreneur who is considering filing for bankruptcy. Most of Saqib’s primary education in Srinagar took place at home, because schools remained shut for about eight months a year in the 1990s. Every time there was militant-related violence, educational institutions were closed.
Around the time Saqib should have been in school, his peers in other Indian cities were having a very different experience. In 1991, in the face of an economic crisis, New Delhi took the difficult medicine of opening up its economy to the world, putting in place fiscal reforms that would set it on the path to rapid growth for the next two decades. While young Indians began to dream of lives on par with those of their global peers, Kashmiri youth would often harbor hopes of joining their region’s separatist movement.
Kashmiris expected the economy to bounce back in 1996 when a local party, the National Conference, was elected to the state government and New Delhi promised increased autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir.
Things turned out differently. In 1999, after the Kargil War between India and Pakistan, militant attacks on Indian paramilitary forces stationed in Kashmir sharply increased. These suicide attacks ushered in further militarization to the valley. Today, there is one armed personnel for every seven civilians in the region.
In 2007, when Saqib enrolled in an engineering college, little did he know that the valley would come to a complete standstill the following year. In 2008, the Indian National Congress-led government in New Delhi decided to transfer 99 acres of forest land to Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board, a trust that governs the famous Hindu pilgrimage to the Amarnath temple. More than 500,000 Kashmiris marched in protest, rejecting what they felt was an Indian takeover of Kashmiri land. Kashmir remained shut for most of that year.Kashmiris expected the economy to bounce back in 1996. Things turned out differently.
While Saqib’s national peers were dreaming of packing their bags for coveted jobs in Silicon Valley, Kashmiri students were struggling to get to class.
In 2010, Saqib’s studies were disrupted once again when Kashmiris took to the streets to protest extrajudicial killings of Kashmiri youth. The protests left around 120 people dead.
Finally, in 2011, Saqib graduated as an engineer from Kashmir University. He decided to set up a bottled water plant and called his product Kolahai, which is the name of the glacier where the Jhelum, Kashmir’s major river, originates. His business began to pick up when he started receiving contracts to supply water at weddings across the valley. Saqib expanded his business by introducing bottled juices and teas.
A new twist emerged in 2014. A pro-Hindu government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Narendra Modi was elected in New Delhi. The party joined hands with a Kashmiri group called the Peoples Democratic Party and formed a government in the state. Since their visions for the state were different, the government was unstable and insecure.
The arrival of smartphones and high-speed internet further shook the region’s tenuous social contract. Messages from separatist leaders reached the phones of Kashmiris directly, without censorship. People hungrily consumed video messages from young militants such as Burhan Muzaffar Wani, a charismatic commander of the militant organization Hizbul Mujahideen, making the case for Kashmiri independence.
In 2016, when Wani was killed by Indian forces, tens of thousands of Kashmiris attended his funeral. The state essentially ground to a halt for almost five months. And the authorities, realizing the revolutionary power of social media and the internet, began to respond for the first time by shutting down certain apps and restricting internet speeds in the region.
Unlike the previous generation, which had access to arms, the Kashmiris who came of age in the 2000s had to resort to stones as their weapons of choice. Every Friday, after the afternoon prayers at Srinagar’s main mosque, young men flooded the streets to throw stones at the security forces. Over a period of time this type of protest became merely symbolic.
Saqib shuttered his factory for long periods in 2016. There aren’t many weddings in a society that grieves the loss of its freedom, so demand for his product dried up.
Saqib had borrowed money from banks, which he somehow managed to repay by the end of 2018. Hoping the economy would look up in 2019, Saqib began to once again dream of restoring his business to its former glory.
But then, exactly one year ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party fulfilled its campaign promise and downgraded the status of Kashmir to a union territory, bringing it under New Delhi’s control. And it did so while once again imposing strict curfews and shutting down the internet for the longest period in history for a democracy. This time, Saqib would finally give up dreaming: “Now, I know nothing will ever go back to how it was again,” he said.Unlike the previous generation, which had access to arms, the Kashmiris who came of age in the 2000s had to resort to stones as their weapons of choice.
In the past 12 months, New Delhi has passed successive laws that Kashmiris fear will open up their lands and ecology for exploitation, while stripping them of their unique identity. For instance, New Delhi can now decide who gets to live in Kashmir, a legal change that could end up transforming the region’s demographics.
Every time I talk to a young Kashmiri, I sense fatigue and a sense of hopelessness about their future. However, most conversations end with them suggesting that they will fight to reclaim their freedom. The Indian government seems to understand this sentiment well, which perhaps explains why it continues to curtail the speed of the internet there. When the internet comes back, the possibility of large protests is ever-present. But without the internet, real investment and growth in the region is impossible to imagine.
Jammu and Kashmir had a monthly average unemployment rate of 15 percent between January 2016 and July 2019, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. This is more than double the national average of 6.4 percent during the same period.
But Saqib says his generation doesn’t see unemployment as its greatest burden. “We have lost our youth, our dreams, and our future,” he said. “That is what we’d want back.”


foreignpolicy--2020-08-05--Kashmir’s Year of Hopelessness

Kashmir’s Year of Hopelessness

On Aug. 5 , 2019 , the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked the special constitutional status of Indian-administered Kashmir .
It did so by using a legislative sleight of hand , relying on its parliamentary majority at the national level .
Had it chosen to adhere to constitutional proprieties it would have had to obtain the imprimatur of the local , elected legislature in the state before embarking on the change .
After the ending of its special status , the state was divided into two Union Territories—regions under the direct rule @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the termination of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution ( as well as an earlier law , Article 35A , which had defined the basis of state citizenship ) not only ended the state ’ s autonomy , but also made it possible for non-Kashmiris to acquire land in the state .
Why did the BJP government resort to this drastic—and possibly legally dubious—tactic ?
Ostensibly , the decision stemmed from a desire to improve the socioeconomic status of the state , to boost economic growth , and to facilitate investment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ fulfilled in the last year .
Despite much talk of a surge of investment into the state , little has materialized .
Rights to mineral mines are being sold to non-Kashmiris , with no likely benefit to the local population.None of these objectives have been fulfilled in the last year .
Thanks to the largesse of past governments , the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir once boasted some of the best social indicators in India .
Its Human Development Index , a composite of several social indicators , put it in 11th @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third in terms of human life expectancy and eighth on poverty alleviation .
Investment , the one area in which the state was lagging behind the rest of India , had little connection with the constraints of Article 370 and Article 35A , and more to do with its problems with militancy and frequent outbursts of violence .
Fiscal matters aside , there were other reasons for the BJP ’ s decision to revoke the state ’ s unique constitutional dispensation .
For decades , the BJP and its predecessor , the Bharatiya @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Muslim-majority region ’ s special status .
The BJP is keen on changing the demography of the state through a process that may be referred to as “ ethnic flooding ” —the opposite of ethnic cleansing .
With the removal of Article 370 , this prospect becomes feasible : Hindus from other parts of India can now legally settle in Kashmir , eventually changing its demographic makeup .
Finally , if political turmoil can be contained , India can weaken Pakistan ’ s legal claim to the state .
A year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closer to the realization of its stated goals ?
The record seems to suggest otherwise .
Political activity remains in a state of suspended animation with the entire political establishment either under house arrest or incarcerated under the Public Safety Act .
A former chief minister of the state , Mehbooba Mufti , just had her detention extended for an additional three months under the terms of the act .
Saifuddin Soz , a long-time member of the Indian National Congress , remains confined to his home in the capital city of Srinagar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protestors remain behind bars both within and outside the state .
Nor has investment started to flow into the state as the government had touted .
With high-speed internet and phones shut down until earlier this year , businesses were hardly incentivized to expand their activity in Kashmir .
And the lack of communications also ended up worsening health care and education in the region , especially in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic .
Meanwhile , New Delhi continues to increase its militarization of the region .
Even before Aug. 5 last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an additional 38,000 troops to the state anticipating public disturbances .
The region now faces a distinctly uncertain and troubled future .
While COVID-19 stalks the world , it is unlikely that Kashmir will experience significant political disturbances .
But once the pandemic ends or even significantly ebbs , widespread protests are bound to emerge from a disaffected , sullen , and alienated population .
A harsh state response will not quell such demonstrations , but instead draw increased attention to the plight of the hapless Kashmiris .
India ’ s stance on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to further its strategy of exploiting discord in the region .
Islamabad will , in all likelihood , find fertile ground to sow the seeds of insurrection .
It is within reason to surmise that Pakistan ’ s security apparatus will continue to organize , train , arm , and provide sanctuaries to disgruntled Kashmiris who have turned to militancy .
Apart from quelling routine street protests , Indian forces will again have to deal with insurgents who will be suitably armed , well-trained , and clearly dedicated to the cause of undermining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state.New Delhi continues to increase its militarization of the region .
The question , then , is what possible avenues of action remain open to the government .
Given the ideological bent of the Modi-led BJP , New Delhi is prepared to maintain its iron grip on the restive region regardless of moral , human , or material costs .
It seems the decision it made last August as irrevocable ; To turn back at this point would be a fatal show of weakness .
What about Indian public opinion ?
Might segments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distress about the plight of the Kashmiris who are , after all , fellow citizens of India ?
Thus far , the signs are far from encouraging .
It is true that a handful of political commentators and public intellectuals have criticized the government ’ s actions in Kashmir with both courage and verve .
But the majority of the population , especially under the dire conditions of the pandemic , will remain mostly preoccupied with their everyday lives .
It is hard to visualize how their stance on Kashmir will shift anytime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , none of India ’ s smaller neighbors are in any position to question New Delhi .
China , however , expressed its dissatisfaction with India ’ s decision last August .
To that end , it may well have chosen to stir trouble in Kashmir ’ s northernmost area , Ladakh , in May and June of this year when troops from the two countries came to blows .
But given its own treatment of minorities , especially the Uighurs and the Tibetans , Beijing is hardly able to comment on Indian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key members of the global community have only issued anodyne statements gently urging India to ease the terms of its lockdown in Kashmir .
Even these unobjectionable remarks have been met with a shrug in New Delhi .
Given this configuration of national , regional , and global forces the future of Kashmir looks particularly bleak .
The BJP knows that if it lifts its restrictions on the internet and public gatherings , protests may ensue , and that ’ s why it is likely to maintain the status quo no matter the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-Kashmiri Indians accept this eventuality , little can change .

On Aug. 5, 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked the special constitutional status of Indian-administered Kashmir. It did so by using a legislative sleight of hand, relying on its parliamentary majority at the national level. Had it chosen to adhere to constitutional proprieties it would have had to obtain the imprimatur of the local, elected legislature in the state before embarking on the change.
On Aug. 5, 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked the special constitutional status of Indian-administered Kashmir. It did so by using a legislative sleight of hand, relying on its parliamentary majority at the national level. Had it chosen to adhere to constitutional proprieties it would have had to obtain the imprimatur of the local, elected legislature in the state before embarking on the change.
After the ending of its special status, the state was divided into two Union Territories—regions under the direct rule of New Delhi. In practical terms, the termination of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution (as well as an earlier law, Article 35A, which had defined the basis of state citizenship) not only ended the state’s autonomy, but also made it possible for non-Kashmiris to acquire land in the state.
Why did the BJP government resort to this drastic—and possibly legally dubious—tactic? Ostensibly, the decision stemmed from a desire to improve the socioeconomic status of the state, to boost economic growth, and to facilitate investment. But none of these objectives have been fulfilled in the last year. Despite much talk of a surge of investment into the state, little has materialized. Rights to mineral mines are being sold to non-Kashmiris, with no likely benefit to the local population.None of these objectives have been fulfilled in the last year.
Thanks to the largesse of past governments, the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir once boasted some of the best social indicators in India. Its Human Development Index, a composite of several social indicators, put it in 11th place among 25 states. It ranked third in terms of human life expectancy and eighth on poverty alleviation. Investment, the one area in which the state was lagging behind the rest of India, had little connection with the constraints of Article 370 and Article 35A, and more to do with its problems with militancy and frequent outbursts of violence.
Fiscal matters aside, there were other reasons for the BJP’s decision to revoke the state’s unique constitutional dispensation. For decades, the BJP and its predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, had been ideologically opposed to the Muslim-majority region’s special status. The BJP is keen on changing the demography of the state through a process that may be referred to as “ethnic flooding”—the opposite of ethnic cleansing. With the removal of Article 370, this prospect becomes feasible: Hindus from other parts of India can now legally settle in Kashmir, eventually changing its demographic makeup. Finally, if political turmoil can be contained, India can weaken Pakistan’s legal claim to the state.
A year later, is the Indian state any closer to the realization of its stated goals? The record seems to suggest otherwise. Political activity remains in a state of suspended animation with the entire political establishment either under house arrest or incarcerated under the Public Safety Act. A former chief minister of the state, Mehbooba Mufti, just had her detention extended for an additional three months under the terms of the act. Saifuddin Soz, a long-time member of the Indian National Congress, remains confined to his home in the capital city of Srinagar. And thousands of political activists and protestors remain behind bars both within and outside the state.
Nor has investment started to flow into the state as the government had touted. With high-speed internet and phones shut down until earlier this year, businesses were hardly incentivized to expand their activity in Kashmir. And the lack of communications also ended up worsening health care and education in the region, especially in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile, New Delhi continues to increase its militarization of the region. Even before Aug. 5 last year, the government had sent in an additional 38,000 troops to the state anticipating public disturbances.
The region now faces a distinctly uncertain and troubled future. While COVID-19 stalks the world, it is unlikely that Kashmir will experience significant political disturbances. But once the pandemic ends or even significantly ebbs, widespread protests are bound to emerge from a disaffected, sullen, and alienated population. A harsh state response will not quell such demonstrations, but instead draw increased attention to the plight of the hapless Kashmiris. India’s stance on Kashmir has strengthened Pakistan’s resolve to further its strategy of exploiting discord in the region. Islamabad will, in all likelihood, find fertile ground to sow the seeds of insurrection. It is within reason to surmise that Pakistan’s security apparatus will continue to organize, train, arm, and provide sanctuaries to disgruntled Kashmiris who have turned to militancy. Apart from quelling routine street protests, Indian forces will again have to deal with insurgents who will be suitably armed, well-trained, and clearly dedicated to the cause of undermining India’s control over the disputed state.New Delhi continues to increase its militarization of the region.
The question, then, is what possible avenues of action remain open to the government. Given the ideological bent of the Modi-led BJP, New Delhi is prepared to maintain its iron grip on the restive region regardless of moral, human, or material costs. It seems the decision it made last August as irrevocable; To turn back at this point would be a fatal show of weakness.
What about Indian public opinion? Might segments of the country feel any sense of distress about the plight of the Kashmiris who are, after all, fellow citizens of India? Thus far, the signs are far from encouraging. It is true that a handful of political commentators and public intellectuals have criticized the government’s actions in Kashmir with both courage and verve. But the majority of the population, especially under the dire conditions of the pandemic, will remain mostly preoccupied with their everyday lives. It is hard to visualize how their stance on Kashmir will shift anytime soon.
With the exception of Pakistan, none of India’s smaller neighbors are in any position to question New Delhi. China, however, expressed its dissatisfaction with India’s decision last August. To that end, it may well have chosen to stir trouble in Kashmir’s northernmost area, Ladakh, in May and June of this year when troops from the two countries came to blows. But given its own treatment of minorities, especially the Uighurs and the Tibetans, Beijing is hardly able to comment on Indian policy with any moral authority.
Other key members of the global community have only issued anodyne statements gently urging India to ease the terms of its lockdown in Kashmir. Even these unobjectionable remarks have been met with a shrug in New Delhi. Given this configuration of national, regional, and global forces the future of Kashmir looks particularly bleak. The BJP knows that if it lifts its restrictions on the internet and public gatherings, protests may ensue, and that’s why it is likely to maintain the status quo no matter the economic costs. As long as most non-Kashmiri Indians accept this eventuality, little can change.