foreignpolicy--2020-04-22--After the Coronavirus, Terrorism Won’t Be the Same

After the Coronavirus , Terrorism Won ’ t Be the Same As the coronavirus pandemic has spread , terrorist groups have reacted in different ways .
Traditional terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and al Qaeda and its many affiliates are for the most part confused in their response to COVID-19 .
Some see chaos that they can take advantage of ( in places such as West Africa ) , others divine retribution on nonbelievers ( as the Islamic State and the Turkistan Islamic Party , a Uighur group , have suggested ) , while others an opportunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Taliban and Hezbollah ) .
Governments have redeployed some counterterrorism capabilities to support the coronavirus response while contorting legal definitions of terrorism to prosecute people committing antisocial acts such as coughing on others .
So far , the number of acts that could reasonably be called terrorism have been quite limited .
It is for the most part generic anti-establishmentarianism fed by conspiracy theories .
Fear of 5G technology being linked to the spread of the disease has led to the burnings of cell-phone towers across Europe .
In the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a bomb plan targeting a Kansas City , Kansas , hospital preparing for virus response and an attempt to derail a train in the Port of Los Angeles shipyard .
Some more enterprising jihadis have sought to weaponize the coronavirus , while the extreme right wing has largely only talked about doing it .
These acts have a unifying theme .
Like most terrorism , they are fundamentally acts of revolt against the established order .
In the United States there is a rich tradition of anti-government activity , drawing on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the American body politic .
Oklahoma City just marked the 25th anniversary of Timothy McVeigh ’ s attack on the Alfred P. Murrah building in 1995 that led to 168 deaths .
McVeigh emerged from a broader U.S. movement called “ Patriots ” by federal investigators , who had long worried about these extreme libertarians ’ potential for violence and their propensity for gathering lots of weapons .
More recently , this movement has expressed itself through sovereign citizen groups , which reject federal regulations and target police .
For those whose mindset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ activity , the massive expansion of the state that follows a national crisis like a pandemic outbreak will be a concern .
For such individuals , the fear is as much about expansion of the state as it is distrust in government ’ s activity in general .
Some expressions of this anger are already visible in places such as Michigan , Kentucky , and North Carolina .
This sense of disenfranchisement is further exacerbated thanks to the growing distrust that is visible in government globally .
Given the propensity of leaders to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ collective faith in government is being eroded .
Various criminal organizations have spotted this and sought to offer themselves as alternatives .
Terrorist groups such as Hezbollah , the Taliban , and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that control pieces of territory have used the chaos to showcase their own public health capabilities , as thin as they are .
Criminal groups in Brazil , El Salvador , and Mexico are seeking to display their power and resources .
These moves are not particularly altruistic , however , with most groups undertaking them out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and minds they could win through these acts .
Others on the fringes are taking this distrust to its violent extreme , and their number is likely to increase over time .
The current COVID-19 response is going to expand the presence of the state , draw attention to inequalities that will be exacerbated in the post-coronavirus economy , and ultimately highlight the budget-tightening that is going to have to follow .
Some may fear big government , but others will instead grow angry if it is not seen to be dealing with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all open up narratives ripe for exploitation by anti-government factions , racist groups , political extremists of every type , and extremist Luddites or other fringe groups .
The growing army of the disenfranchised will create a community of those who are open to placing the blame on someone else .
In the West there has been a growing push to blame China—something that is happening among senior officials ( such as Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger and Sen. Ted Cruz in the United States or the heads of the parliamentary defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and increasingly in the general population in countries where the tone of anti-Chinese sentiment is growing .
This anger is also straining existing social tensions around migrants , something visible in the nasty racist tinge that colors a lot of COVID-19 discourse .
Unfortunately , once anti-Chinese sentiment catches on among the general public , it tends to be less discerning—resulting in abuse and violence toward all those who appear to be of East Asian ethnicity .
And while hate crimes do not always equate to terrorism , they are often a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hate crimes produce provide fodder to those who are prone to violence to act out on their nasty impulses , as well as providing a rich environment for groups seeking to advance divisive ideologies .
Once anti-Chinese sentiment catches on among the general public , it results in abuse and violence toward all those who appear to be of East Asian ethnicity .
This problem is not exclusive to the West .
In Indonesia , researchers have warned of a growing tension toward Chinese nationals within the country .
This draws on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generally in the country—in part stemming from historical ethnic tensions , but more recently being exacerbated by Beijing ’ s treatment of its Muslim Uighur minority .
There have even been warnings of this sentiment resulting in terrorism against Chinese residents of Indonesia , with a cell reported as having discussed targeting Chinese workers .
This might lay the foundations for a more violent expression of anti-Chinese terrorism in Southeast Asia .
Chinese relations with Southeast Asia are often strained , and there are other expressions of anger against China more generally at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ embroiled in an online spat with China when young Thais took umbrage at Chinese online warriors attacking prominent Thai actors for expressing views in solidarity with Taiwan and Hong Kong .
The resulting “ milk tea alliance ” —so called because people in the countries are generally fans of sweet milk tea—has angered Beijing and dragged in the local embassy to express the usual Chinese anger at others recognizing the independence of places Beijing sees as part of China .
In Kazakhstan , a post on the Chinese internet that appeared to suggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China drew enough ire to prompt the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs to haul in the Chinese ambassador and demand an apology .
In neighboring Kyrgyzstan , anti-Chinese sentiment coalesced around the idea of Chinese nationals being spreaders of the disease and has seen a member of parliament make statements about how Chinese citizens should be avoided .
None of this is terrorism , of course , but there is a clearer focus of public anger toward China .
As China becomes a more dominant player in world affairs , it will increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in part driven by Beijing ’ s treatment of minorities at home .
This could crystallize into attacks on Chinese nationals or companies .
At the even darker fringes , even the 5G telephone pole-burning phenomenon might be a prelude to something else .
The Luddites were a group of textile workers in the U.K. who emerged in the 19th centur .
They were known for violently protesting as technology developed that was slowly displacing their jobs .
In more modern times , Ted Kaczynski , better known as the Unabomber , carried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost two-decade-long bombing campaign that culminated in the publication of his manifesto , “ Industrial Society and Its Future ” —a screed about how modern technology was eroding personal freedoms .
Today , the rapid shift to online work by a growing proportion of workers is going to dramatically accelerate in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic .
Companies are shrinking volumes of staff and trying to work more online or remotely .
Things that were previously done in person are now migrating online .
Having been made redundant by online tools , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to mobilize a backlash .
While many will return to working in the ways they did before the crisis , a surprisingly high number might find their work pattern permanently altered or face redundancy as a result of the cost savings that companies now see they can make while still achieving the same result .
This might create an angry movement that draws together disgruntled ex-workers using the very tools that they are angry about for displacing them .
Having been made redundant by online tools , they could very well repurpose them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerges in the spaces where government is perceived to have failed or where people feel they are being excluded from the system .
The pandemic is likely to lower people ’ s sense of trust in authority even further .
The result will be increased problems from those who turn angry enough to want to use violence to articulate their grievances .
The world has already seen a failure in international cooperation when it comes to responding to the coronavirus , and while there have been innumerable acts of kindness between citizens , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will follow will create new forms of political violence .
Some will draw on long-standing ideologies and groups , while others will emerge in surprising ways .
Terrorism will not end in the wake of the coronavirus ; instead , it is likely to evolve in ever more extreme ways .

As the coronavirus pandemic has spread, terrorist groups have reacted in different ways.
Traditional terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and al Qaeda and its many affiliates are for the most part confused in their response to COVID-19. Some see chaos that they can take advantage of (in places such as West Africa), others divine retribution on nonbelievers (as the Islamic State and the Turkistan Islamic Party, a Uighur group, have suggested), while others an opportunity to show their governance capabilities (such as the Taliban and Hezbollah). Governments have redeployed some counterterrorism capabilities to support the coronavirus response while contorting legal definitions of terrorism to prosecute people committing antisocial acts such as coughing on others.
So far, the number of acts that could reasonably be called terrorism have been quite limited. It is for the most part generic anti-establishmentarianism fed by conspiracy theories. Fear of 5G technology being linked to the spread of the disease has led to the burnings of cell-phone towers across Europe.
In the United States, fear of big government has resulted in a bomb plan targeting a Kansas City, Kansas, hospital preparing for virus response and an attempt to derail a train in the Port of Los Angeles shipyard. Some more enterprising jihadis have sought to weaponize the coronavirus, while the extreme right wing has largely only talked about doing it.
These acts have a unifying theme. Like most terrorism, they are fundamentally acts of revolt against the established order. In the United States there is a rich tradition of anti-government activity, drawing on a broader narrative of libertarianism than runs through the American body politic.
Oklahoma City just marked the 25th anniversary of Timothy McVeigh’s attack on the Alfred P. Murrah building in 1995 that led to 168 deaths. McVeigh emerged from a broader U.S. movement called “Patriots” by federal investigators, who had long worried about these extreme libertarians’ potential for violence and their propensity for gathering lots of weapons. More recently, this movement has expressed itself through sovereign citizen groups, which reject federal regulations and target police.
For those whose mindset is shaped by this history of anti-government activity, the massive expansion of the state that follows a national crisis like a pandemic outbreak will be a concern. For such individuals, the fear is as much about expansion of the state as it is distrust in government’s activity in general. Some expressions of this anger are already visible in places such as Michigan, Kentucky, and North Carolina.
This sense of disenfranchisement is further exacerbated thanks to the growing distrust that is visible in government globally. Given the propensity of leaders to publicly utter untruths or half-truths, citizens’ collective faith in government is being eroded. Various criminal organizations have spotted this and sought to offer themselves as alternatives.
Terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, the Taliban, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that control pieces of territory have used the chaos to showcase their own public health capabilities, as thin as they are. Criminal groups in Brazil, El Salvador, and Mexico are seeking to display their power and resources. These moves are not particularly altruistic, however, with most groups undertaking them out of recognition of the battle for hearts and minds they could win through these acts.
Others on the fringes are taking this distrust to its violent extreme, and their number is likely to increase over time. The current COVID-19 response is going to expand the presence of the state, draw attention to inequalities that will be exacerbated in the post-coronavirus economy, and ultimately highlight the budget-tightening that is going to have to follow. Some may fear big government, but others will instead grow angry if it is not seen to be dealing with their problems and concerns. These fissures all open up narratives ripe for exploitation by anti-government factions, racist groups, political extremists of every type, and extremist Luddites or other fringe groups.
The growing army of the disenfranchised will create a community of those who are open to placing the blame on someone else. In the West there has been a growing push to blame China—something that is happening among senior officials (such as Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger and Sen. Ted Cruz in the United States or the heads of the parliamentary defense and foreign select committees in the U.K.) and increasingly in the general population in countries where the tone of anti-Chinese sentiment is growing. This anger is also straining existing social tensions around migrants, something visible in the nasty racist tinge that colors a lot of COVID-19 discourse.
Unfortunately, once anti-Chinese sentiment catches on among the general public, it tends to be less discerning—resulting in abuse and violence toward all those who appear to be of East Asian ethnicity. And while hate crimes do not always equate to terrorism, they are often a precursor to it. The intercommunal tensions hate crimes produce provide fodder to those who are prone to violence to act out on their nasty impulses, as well as providing a rich environment for groups seeking to advance divisive ideologies.
Once anti-Chinese sentiment catches on among the general public, it results in abuse and violence toward all those who appear to be of East Asian ethnicity.
This problem is not exclusive to the West. In Indonesia, researchers have warned of a growing tension toward Chinese nationals within the country. This draws on a rich seam of anger toward China more generally in the country—in part stemming from historical ethnic tensions, but more recently being exacerbated by Beijing’s treatment of its Muslim Uighur minority. There have even been warnings of this sentiment resulting in terrorism against Chinese residents of Indonesia, with a cell reported as having discussed targeting Chinese workers. This might lay the foundations for a more violent expression of anti-Chinese terrorism in Southeast Asia.
Chinese relations with Southeast Asia are often strained, and there are other expressions of anger against China more generally at the moment as well. Thailand became embroiled in an online spat with China when young Thais took umbrage at Chinese online warriors attacking prominent Thai actors for expressing views in solidarity with Taiwan and Hong Kong. The resulting “milk tea alliance”—so called because people in the countries are generally fans of sweet milk tea—has angered Beijing and dragged in the local embassy to express the usual Chinese anger at others recognizing the independence of places Beijing sees as part of China.
In Kazakhstan, a post on the Chinese internet that appeared to suggest that Kazakhstan wanted to become part of China drew enough ire to prompt the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs to haul in the Chinese ambassador and demand an apology. In neighboring Kyrgyzstan, anti-Chinese sentiment coalesced around the idea of Chinese nationals being spreaders of the disease and has seen a member of parliament make statements about how Chinese citizens should be avoided.
None of this is terrorism, of course, but there is a clearer focus of public anger toward China. As China becomes a more dominant player in world affairs, it will increasingly become a target, something that is in part driven by Beijing’s treatment of minorities at home. This could crystallize into attacks on Chinese nationals or companies.
At the even darker fringes, even the 5G telephone pole-burning phenomenon might be a prelude to something else. The Luddites were a group of textile workers in the U.K. who emerged in the 19th centur. They were known for violently protesting as technology developed that was slowly displacing their jobs. In more modern times, Ted Kaczynski, better known as the Unabomber, carried forward the Luddite mantle by leading an almost two-decade-long bombing campaign that culminated in the publication of his manifesto, “Industrial Society and Its Future”—a screed about how modern technology was eroding personal freedoms.
Today, the rapid shift to online work by a growing proportion of workers is going to dramatically accelerate in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Companies are shrinking volumes of staff and trying to work more online or remotely. Things that were previously done in person are now migrating online.
Having been made redundant by online tools, disgruntled ex-workers could very well repurpose them to mobilize a backlash.
While many will return to working in the ways they did before the crisis, a surprisingly high number might find their work pattern permanently altered or face redundancy as a result of the cost savings that companies now see they can make while still achieving the same result. This might create an angry movement that draws together disgruntled ex-workers using the very tools that they are angry about for displacing them. Having been made redundant by online tools, they could very well repurpose them to mobilize a backlash.
Terrorism often emerges in the spaces where government is perceived to have failed or where people feel they are being excluded from the system. The pandemic is likely to lower people’s sense of trust in authority even further. The result will be increased problems from those who turn angry enough to want to use violence to articulate their grievances.
The world has already seen a failure in international cooperation when it comes to responding to the coronavirus, and while there have been innumerable acts of kindness between citizens, the larger sense of anger and disenfranchisement that will follow will create new forms of political violence. Some will draw on long-standing ideologies and groups, while others will emerge in surprising ways. Terrorism will not end in the wake of the coronavirus; instead, it is likely to evolve in ever more extreme ways.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-23--Pentagon Waters Down Trump’s Iran Threat

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : President Trump lashes out at Iran—and the Pentagon walks it back , clashes between Taliban and Afghan forces lead to multiple casualties , and coronavirus cases surge in Singapore .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Faced with the new challenges of a crumbling economy and the worst coronavirus outbreak in the world , the Trump administration appears to be returning to old grievances .
On Wednesday , U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter , “ I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they harass our ships at sea.
” U.S. defense officials were reportedly surprised by the tweet , as they had not been briefed on any change in policy toward Iran .
In response , the Pentagon sought to manage up , downgrading the commander-in-chief ’ s announcement to a warning .
“ What he was emphasizing is all of our ships retain the right of self-defense , and people need to be very careful in their interactions to understand the inherent right of self-defense , ” David Norquist , U.S. Deputy Secretary of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ briefing .
Norquist added that the president ’ s tweet was “ very useful.
” Iran ’ s military spokesman , in a reference to the U.S. Navy ’ s coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt , hit back at the president ’ s threat , “ Today , instead of intimidating others , the Americans would do better to save their troops infected by the coronavirus , ” he said .
Oil markets , sluggish for the past week , jumped after the president ’ s tweet , with the battered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4.72 percent over the course of the day to end at $ 14.43 a barrel .
What prompted Trump ’ s Twitter outburst ?
It appears this specific threat came from indulging in a great American pastime : watching television .
A report that morning on Fox News highlighting an Iranian military satellite launch used U.S. Navy footage from April 15 of Iranian boats circling U.S. Navy warships in the Persian Gulf .
It ’ s likely the week-old footage provoked the president .
Fox News Defense Correspondent Lucas Tomlinson appeared to acknowledge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president ’ s tweet .
Trump has a history of shooting from the hip on Twitter when he is agitated by something he sees on the television .
On May 19 , 2019 Trump tweeted , seemingly out of the blue , “ If Iran wants to fight , that will be the official end of Iran .
Never threaten the United States again !
” By analyzing the timing of Trump ’ s tweets about other issues that hour , Matthew Gertz , a senior fellow at Media Matters for America—a Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the likely cause of the tweet : a Fox News segment about Iranian proxies targeting U.S. troops .
What about this Iranian satellite ?
Iran claimed to have launched its first military satellite on Wednesday .
Iran ’ s Revolutionary Guard Corps said the satellite is in a high orbit , approximately 264 miles above the earth .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the launch could be in breach of a United Nations Security Council resolution calling on Iran not to conduct any activity related to ballistic missiles , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space launches—which rely on similar technology to put satellites into orbit—are related to its missile research .
“ I think every nation has an obligation to go to the United Nations and evaluate whether this missile launch was consistent with that security council resolution , ” Pompeo said .
“ I don ’ t think it remotely is , and I think Iran needs to be held accountable for what they have done.
” Are SLVs and ballistic missiles the same thing ?
No .
As Michael Elleman and Mark Fitzpatrick explained in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ While the technologies and components employed in satellite launches and military-use missiles are similar , key features and operational demands differentiate civilian space launchers from military ballistic missiles , ” they wrote .
That ’ s why , despite the similar technology , accusing Iran of using satellites as a “ cover ” for nuclear missile development was “ misguided , ” Elleman argued in a 2019 article after Iran ’ s previous failed attempt to launch a satellite .
Moreover , he and Fitzpatrick argued in FP , “ given the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s sense of defense and deterrence , total abandonment of the missile program is not remotely possible.
” Instead of punishing Tehran for pursuing space launches , they pointed to the satellite program as an opportunity to forge a deal .
“ Iran ’ s satellite launchers are vulnerable to preemption , lack re-entry protection , employ lower-thrust propulsion systems , and have less demanding all-weather reliability standards .
This is why the risks of allowing … civilian satellite launch programs in exchange for a long-range missile flight-test ban are manageable , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Taliban clashes with government forces in Afghanistan .
Fighting throughout Afghanistan has killed dozens of Afghan government forces and Taliban fighters over the past 24 hours .
The Afghan government reported multiple attacks on government checkpoints in the country ’ s northern and eastern provinces , killing 19 Afghan forces .
In Kandahar , provincial police say they killed 31 Taliban fighters .
Taliban leaders have not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks , but the clashes highlight how slow the path to stability under Afghanistan ’ s nascent peace process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phone yesterday , U.S. President Donald Trump and the leader of Qatar—the host country for Afghan peace talks—agreed on the importance of reducing Taliban violence and continuing prisoner releases , according to a White House statement .
Singapore coronavirus cases surge .
After appearing to be a success story in the fight against the coronavirus , cases in Singapore are again on the rise .
The country reported roughly 1,000 new cases on Wednesday ; the vast majority—967—were foreign workers .
In FP , Namita Bhandare reports on the challenges facing these workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a strong vector for the spread of the coronavirus , “ A single bedroom can accommodate as many as 20 men—making it impossible to implement social distancing , ” she writes .
Saakashvili to join Ukraine cabinet .
Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is to make a return to political life in Ukraine as deputy prime minister in charge of government reform .
Saakashvili , a Ukrainian citizen since 2015 , was deported from Ukraine under previous President Petro Poreshenko and was stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship after he accused Poroshenko of corruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s citizenship last year .
It ’ s now up to the Ukrainian parliament to approve the move .
A vote is expected on Friday .
U.S. announces weekly unemployment figures .
This morning in Washington , the U.S. Department of Labor will release its weekly report on U.S. unemployment claims .
The past few weeks have been record-breaking , with 5.2 million people filing for unemployment benefits last week .
According to Bloomberg data , today ’ s figures should show approximately 4.5 million more people being added to unemployment rolls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that lifting lockdowns could cause the coronavirus pandemic to “ reignite ” and prepared nations to for a long battle against the virus .
“ Make no mistake , we have a long way to go .
This virus will be with us for a long time , ” Tedros told a press conference yesterday .
“ Early evidence suggests most of the world ’ s population remains susceptible .
That means epidemics can easily reignite , ” he added .
In the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A new poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 61 percent of Americans say lockdown restrictions in their area are “ about right , ” 26 percent said the restrictions don ’ t go far enough .
World Bank says remittances will face historic drop .
On Wednesday , the World Bank warned global remittances will drop by $ 128 billion in 2020 , a 20 percent decline overall , as the global recession squeezes wages and employment prospects for migrants around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline is the largest ever recorded and occurs as global remittances reached a record $ 714 billion in 2019 .
In a sign that there may not be a “ normal ” to get back to , cyclists and motorists have found themselves at loggerheads in Berlin , as the aversion to public transport lingers and Berliners seek alternative forms of transportation .
The city has begun painting “ pop-up ” bike lanes to cope with the increased demand for solo transport , a plan that Berlin had on the books before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Authorities are using space usually reserved for car parking spaces to free up the roads , angering motorists .
Felix Weisbrich , in charge of street planning in one of Berlin ’ s district , is unmoved by complaints , “ There ’ s no right to free parking on the streets , ” he said .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: President Trump lashes out at Iran— and the Pentagon walks it back, clashes between T aliban and Afghan forces lead to multiple casualties, and coronavirus cases surge in Singapore .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: President Trump lashes out at Iran—and the Pentagon walks it back, clashes between Taliban and Afghan forces lead to multiple casualties, and coronavirus cases surge in Singapore.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Pentagon Walks Back Trump’s Twitter Outburst On Iran
Faced with the new challenges of a crumbling economy and the worst coronavirus outbreak in the world, the Trump administration appears to be returning to old grievances.
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter, “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” U.S. defense officials were reportedly surprised by the tweet, as they had not been briefed on any change in policy toward Iran.
In response, the Pentagon sought to manage up, downgrading the commander-in-chief’s announcement to a warning. “What he was emphasizing is all of our ships retain the right of self-defense, and people need to be very careful in their interactions to understand the inherent right of self-defense,” David Norquist, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, said at a Pentagon press briefing. Norquist added that the president’s tweet was “very useful.”
Iran’s military spokesman, in a reference to the U.S. Navy’s coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt, hit back at the president’s threat, “Today, instead of intimidating others, the Americans would do better to save their troops infected by the coronavirus,” he said.
Oil markets, sluggish for the past week, jumped after the president’s tweet, with the battered June WTI crude oil futures increasing by 4.72 percent over the course of the day to end at $14.43 a barrel.
What prompted Trump’s Twitter outburst? It appears this specific threat came from indulging in a great American pastime: watching television. A report that morning on Fox News highlighting an Iranian military satellite launch used U.S. Navy footage from April 15 of Iranian boats circling U.S. Navy warships in the Persian Gulf. It’s likely the week-old footage provoked the president. Fox News Defense Correspondent Lucas Tomlinson appeared to acknowledge as much on air shortly after the president’s tweet.
Trump has a history of shooting from the hip on Twitter when he is agitated by something he sees on the television. On May 19, 2019 Trump tweeted, seemingly out of the blue, “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!” By analyzing the timing of Trump’s tweets about other issues that hour, Matthew Gertz, a senior fellow at Media Matters for America—a Democratic party-aligned media watchdog— was able to pinpoint the likely cause of the tweet: a Fox News segment about Iranian proxies targeting U.S. troops.
What about this Iranian satellite? Iran claimed to have launched its first military satellite on Wednesday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said the satellite is in a high orbit, approximately 264 miles above the earth.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the launch could be in breach of a United Nations Security Council resolution calling on Iran not to conduct any activity related to ballistic missiles, including satellite launches. Iran denies that its space launches—which rely on similar technology to put satellites into orbit—are related to its missile research. “I think every nation has an obligation to go to the United Nations and evaluate whether this missile launch was consistent with that security council resolution,” Pompeo said. “I don’t think it remotely is, and I think Iran needs to be held accountable for what they have done.”
Are SLVs and ballistic missiles the same thing? No. As Michael Elleman and Mark Fitzpatrick explained in a 2018 article for Foreign Policy, “While the technologies and components employed in satellite launches and military-use missiles are similar, key features and operational demands differentiate civilian space launchers from military ballistic missiles,” they wrote. That’s why, despite the similar technology, accusing Iran of using satellites as a “cover” for nuclear missile development was “misguided,” Elleman argued in a 2019 article after Iran’s previous failed attempt to launch a satellite.
Moreover, he and Fitzpatrick argued in FP, “given the central role that missiles play in Iran’s sense of defense and deterrence, total abandonment of the missile program is not remotely possible.” Instead of punishing Tehran for pursuing space launches, they pointed to the satellite program as an opportunity to forge a deal. “Iran’s satellite launchers are vulnerable to preemption, lack re-entry protection, employ lower-thrust propulsion systems, and have less demanding all-weather reliability standards. This is why the risks of allowing … civilian satellite launch programs in exchange for a long-range missile flight-test ban are manageable, and doing so advances U.S. security interests.”
What We’re Following Today
Taliban clashes with government forces in Afghanistan. Fighting throughout Afghanistan has killed dozens of Afghan government forces and Taliban fighters over the past 24 hours. The Afghan government reported multiple attacks on government checkpoints in the country’s northern and eastern provinces, killing 19 Afghan forces. In Kandahar, provincial police say they killed 31 Taliban fighters. Taliban leaders have not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, but the clashes highlight how slow the path to stability under Afghanistan’s nascent peace process is likely to be. Speaking by phone yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump and the leader of Qatar—the host country for Afghan peace talks—agreed on the importance of reducing Taliban violence and continuing prisoner releases, according to a White House statement.
Singapore coronavirus cases surge. After appearing to be a success story in the fight against the coronavirus, cases in Singapore are again on the rise. The country reported roughly 1,000 new cases on Wednesday; the vast majority—967—were foreign workers. In FP, Namita Bhandare reports on the challenges facing these workers, whose cramped living spaces can be a strong vector for the spread of the coronavirus, “A single bedroom can accommodate as many as 20 men—making it impossible to implement social distancing,” she writes.
Saakashvili to join Ukraine cabinet. Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is to make a return to political life in Ukraine as deputy prime minister in charge of government reform. Saakashvili, a Ukrainian citizen since 2015, was deported from Ukraine under previous President Petro Poreshenko and was stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship after he accused Poroshenko of corruption. New President Volodymyr Zelensky restored Saakashvili’s citizenship last year. It’s now up to the Ukrainian parliament to approve the move. A vote is expected on Friday.
U.S. announces weekly unemployment figures. This morning in Washington, the U.S. Department of Labor will release its weekly report on U.S. unemployment claims. The past few weeks have been record-breaking, with 5.2 million people filing for unemployment benefits last week. According to Bloomberg data, today’s figures should show approximately 4.5 million more people being added to unemployment rolls.
Keep an Eye On
WHO warns against lifting lockdowns. World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that lifting lockdowns could cause the coronavirus pandemic to “reignite” and prepared nations to for a long battle against the virus. “Make no mistake, we have a long way to go. This virus will be with us for a long time,” Tedros told a press conference yesterday. “Early evidence suggests most of the world’s population remains susceptible. That means epidemics can easily reignite,” he added.
In the United States, support remains high for lockdown measures. A new poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 61 percent of Americans say lockdown restrictions in their area are “about right,” 26 percent said the restrictions don’t go far enough.
World Bank says remittances will face historic drop. On Wednesday, the World Bank warned global remittances will drop by $128 billion in 2020, a 20 percent decline overall, as the global recession squeezes wages and employment prospects for migrants around the world. The World Bank says the decline is the largest ever recorded and occurs as global remittances reached a record $714 billion in 2019.
Odds and Ends
In a sign that there may not be a “normal” to get back to, cyclists and motorists have found themselves at loggerheads in Berlin, as the aversion to public transport lingers and Berliners seek alternative forms of transportation. The city has begun painting “pop-up” bike lanes to cope with the increased demand for solo transport, a plan that Berlin had on the books before the coronavirus pandemic, but is now fast-tracking. Authorities are using space usually reserved for car parking spaces to free up the roads, angering motorists. Felix Weisbrich, in charge of street planning in one of Berlin’s district, is unmoved by complaints, “There’s no right to free parking on the streets,” he said.
That’s it for today.
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foreignpolicy--2020-04-23--Hun Sen’s Coronavirus Crackdown

Hun Sen’s Coronavirus Crackdown

On April 10 , Cambodia ’ s parliament passed a sweeping new state of emergency law granting the government the power to impose its will to protect “ national security and social order ” —using the army if necessary—in response to the coronavirus pandemic .
Days earlier , a leaked draft of the law had alarmed human rights groups , which feared the legislation would embolden Cambodia ’ s long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen to take an even more authoritarian line .
Since shutting down the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017 , Hun Sen ’ s government has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dissenters .
Days before the law was passed , police arrested Sovann Rithy , the publisher of the social media news platform TVFB .
His crime ?
Posting a quote from Hun Sen ’ s speech earlier that day .
The prime minister had advised motorbike taxi drivers who go bankrupt amid coronavirus containment measures to “ sell your motorbikes for spending money.
” “ The government does not have the ability to help , ” he said —something that National Police spokesperson Chhay Kim Khoeun later claimed was a joke .
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with incitement .
Initially reluctant to respond to the coronavirus , Hun Sen is now using the pandemic to accelerate the crackdown against his perceived enemies .
The human rights organization Licadho has recorded 26 cases of people arrested for incitement for allegedly spreading “ fake news ” about COVID-19 , including a 14-year-old girl , as of April 10 .
For those arrested and their families , getting clarity about the charges from the corrupt Cambodian police force is tricky .
The family of one detainee , opposition activist and teacher Keo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he had been taken into custody without a warrant and they had “ no idea ” why he had been arrested .
( The police said it was for conspiracy to commit treason . )
In most of these cases , detainees have been arrested and released : a way to scare others into keeping criticism of the Cambodian government ’ s anti-coronavirus strategy to themselves , said Phil Robertson , the Asia director for Human Rights Watch .
The exception to the detain-and-release strategy appears to be if the person arrested is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Cambodia National Rescue Party—around one-third of recent arrests , according to Licadho .
“ The whole crackdown is serving a wider political agenda to persecute and ultimately destroy any formal political opposition to his rule , ” Robertson said .
It ’ s not surprising that Hun Sen is conflating criticism of the government ’ s coronavirus response with threats to political stability and public order .
Since 2017 , the ruling Cambodian People ’ s Party has used similar justification to systematically shut down independent media outlets and outlaw the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would again arrest opposition activists and others for threatening public order is “ sadly predictable , ” said Sebastian Strangio , the author of Hun Sen ’ s Cambodia .
The focus of the government ’ s coronavirus response appears to be stifling the dissemination of news about the pandemic .
The focus of the government ’ s coronavirus response appears to be stifling the dissemination of news about the pandemic “ rather than being proactive and releasing reliable information to keep the population informed , ” said Chak Sopheap , the executive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rights .
“ Maintaining respect for human rights is crucial in this unprecedented time of global crisis , and actions taken in response to the virus must be driven by legitimate public health goals.
” Hun Sen doesn ’ t seem to be primarily motivated by public health so much as by exercising control over the population while protecting the country ’ s commercial interests .
On April 7 , the prime minister canceled the national Khmer New Year holiday and enacted a short-lived travel ban travel ban between towns .
But then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factories , the lifeblood of the Cambodian economy—remain open .
“ The safest places are working places , ” he said .
Hundreds of thousands of Cambodian garment workers are ferried each day to poorly ventilated factories , where they work in perilous and crowded conditions—making social distancing impossible and viral spread inevitable .
Since the crisis began , the Cambodian government has only pinned blame on countries that it sees as politically safe to target .
When news of the coronavirus outbreak in China first broke in late January , Hun Sen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The government ’ s primary concern then was to avoid jeopardizing its close relationship with China .
As other countries in the region restricted travel to China , the prime minister visited President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Feb. 5 .
As neighboring Thailand and Vietnam mobilized serious efforts to contain the virus , Cambodia hosted its largest-ever joint military exercise with China .
And Hun Sen allowed the Westerdam cruise ship to dock in the port of Sihanoukville after it was turned away from five countries , offering handshakes to the disembarking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears to have paid off geopolitically , particularly as the coronavirus threatened to disrupt supply chains to Cambodia ’ s garment industry , which accounts for 16 percent of its GDP and 80 percent of its export earnings .
By leveraging Cambodia ’ s special relationship with China , Hun Sen lobbied Beijing to resume material supplies to factories , even during China ’ s lockdown , said Carl Thayer , an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales .
Cambodia was also the first Southeast Asian country to receive medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite having reported just 87 cases and zero deaths at the time .
Having downplayed the severity of the virus for weeks , Hun Sen abruptly changed his tune when the coronavirus epicenter shifted to Europe and then to the United States in March .
Once Westerners were potential carriers , Hun Sen regarded the coronavirus as a serious enough threat to warrant serious containment measures .
For the Cambodian government , preserving goodwill with the United States or the European Union—an object of particular ire since it withdrew parts of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a far lower priority than showing support for China .
Hun Sen was quick to bar entry for citizens of the United States , Italy , Spain , Germany , and France .
In a country usually welcoming to foreigners , the effect was jarring .
Signs appeared in storefronts in Phnom Penh , the capital , barring foreigners from entering .
Cambodia ’ s ethnic and religious minorities have also become targets of online abuse after being singled out in the government ’ s reporting on COVID-19 .
Much of the backlash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who make up the majority of Cambodia ’ s 300,000 Muslims .
After a group of Cambodians returning from a conference held by the Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jamaat in Kuala Lumpur , Malaysia , Cambodia ’ s Ministry of Health issued a press release identifying the cases as among the Muslim community .
A flurry of Islamophobic Facebook posts directed at Cambodia ’ s Muslims followed , and some began shunning Cham-owned businesses .
“ The Ministry of Health created a problem that didn ’ t need to exist , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Cambodian government ’ s deflections of blame serve a dual purpose .
They obscure the origins of the coronavirus pandemic , pleasing China by tacitly supporting its narrative that the West is primarily responsible for mishandling the containment of the virus .
Within Cambodia , shifting the blame also sows discord and distrust of Western expatriates , many of whom work for human rights groups , just as Hun Sen again steps up authoritarian measures .
This “ divide and conquer ” mentality is another page out of Beijing ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to total consolidation of power in Cambodia for years , backed by Chinese money and political support .
With the pandemic as an excuse , he might realize his iron-fisted ambitions at last .

Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern

On April 10, Cambodia’s parliament passed a sweeping new state of emergency law granting the government the power to impose its will to protect “national security and social order”—using the army if necessary—in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Days earlier, a leaked draft of the law had alarmed human rights groups, which feared the legislation would embolden Cambodia’s long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen to take an even more authoritarian line. Since shutting down the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017, Hun Sen’s government has cracked down on opposition activists and online dissenters.
On April 10, Cambodia’s parliament passed a sweeping new state of emergency law granting the government the power to impose its will to protect “national security and social order”—using the army if necessary—in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Days earlier, a leaked draft of the law had alarmed human rights groups, which feared the legislation would embolden Cambodia’s long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen to take an even more authoritarian line. Since shutting down the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017, Hun Sen’s government has cracked down on opposition activists and online dissenters.
Days before the law was passed, police arrested Sovann Rithy, the publisher of the social media news platform TVFB. His crime? Posting a quote from Hun Sen’s speech earlier that day. The prime minister had advised motorbike taxi drivers who go bankrupt amid coronavirus containment measures to “sell your motorbikes for spending money.” “The government does not have the ability to help,” he said —something that National Police spokesperson Chhay Kim Khoeun later claimed was a joke. On April 9, a judge charged Rithy with incitement.
Initially reluctant to respond to the coronavirus, Hun Sen is now using the pandemic to accelerate the crackdown against his perceived enemies. The human rights organization Licadho has recorded 26 cases of people arrested for incitement for allegedly spreading “fake news” about COVID-19, including a 14-year-old girl, as of April 10. For those arrested and their families, getting clarity about the charges from the corrupt Cambodian police force is tricky. The family of one detainee, opposition activist and teacher Keo Thai, told Radio Free Asia that he had been taken into custody without a warrant and they had “no idea” why he had been arrested. (The police said it was for conspiracy to commit treason.)
In most of these cases, detainees have been arrested and released: a way to scare others into keeping criticism of the Cambodian government’s anti-coronavirus strategy to themselves, said Phil Robertson, the Asia director for Human Rights Watch. The exception to the detain-and-release strategy appears to be if the person arrested is a member of the now-outlawed opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party—around one-third of recent arrests, according to Licadho. “The whole crackdown is serving a wider political agenda to persecute and ultimately destroy any formal political opposition to his rule,” Robertson said.
It’s not surprising that Hun Sen is conflating criticism of the government’s coronavirus response with threats to political stability and public order. Since 2017, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party has used similar justification to systematically shut down independent media outlets and outlaw the main opposition party. That the authorities would again arrest opposition activists and others for threatening public order is “sadly predictable,” said Sebastian Strangio, the author of Hun Sen’s Cambodia.
The focus of the government’s coronavirus response appears to be stifling the dissemination of news about the pandemic.
The focus of the government’s coronavirus response appears to be stifling the dissemination of news about the pandemic “rather than being proactive and releasing reliable information to keep the population informed,” said Chak Sopheap, the executive director of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights. “Maintaining respect for human rights is crucial in this unprecedented time of global crisis, and actions taken in response to the virus must be driven by legitimate public health goals.”
Hun Sen doesn’t seem to be primarily motivated by public health so much as by exercising control over the population while protecting the country’s commercial interests. On April 7, the prime minister canceled the national Khmer New Year holiday and enacted a short-lived travel ban travel ban between towns. But then, Hun Sen insisted that businesses—including garment factories, the lifeblood of the Cambodian economy—remain open. “The safest places are working places,” he said. Hundreds of thousands of Cambodian garment workers are ferried each day to poorly ventilated factories, where they work in perilous and crowded conditions—making social distancing impossible and viral spread inevitable.
Since the crisis began, the Cambodian government has only pinned blame on countries that it sees as politically safe to target. When news of the coronavirus outbreak in China first broke in late January, Hun Sen initially refused to acknowledge the threat. The government’s primary concern then was to avoid jeopardizing its close relationship with China. As other countries in the region restricted travel to China, the prime minister visited President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Feb. 5. As neighboring Thailand and Vietnam mobilized serious efforts to contain the virus, Cambodia hosted its largest-ever joint military exercise with China. And Hun Sen allowed the Westerdam cruise ship to dock in the port of Sihanoukville after it was turned away from five countries, offering handshakes to the disembarking passengers.
Hun Sen’s strategy appears to have paid off geopolitically, particularly as the coronavirus threatened to disrupt supply chains to Cambodia’s garment industry, which accounts for 16 percent of its GDP and 80 percent of its export earnings. By leveraging Cambodia’s special relationship with China, Hun Sen lobbied Beijing to resume material supplies to factories, even during China’s lockdown, said Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales. Cambodia was also the first Southeast Asian country to receive medical aid from China, on March 23, despite having reported just 87 cases and zero deaths at the time.
Having downplayed the severity of the virus for weeks, Hun Sen abruptly changed his tune when the coronavirus epicenter shifted to Europe and then to the United States in March. Once Westerners were potential carriers, Hun Sen regarded the coronavirus as a serious enough threat to warrant serious containment measures. For the Cambodian government, preserving goodwill with the United States or the European Union—an object of particular ire since it withdrew parts of a preferential trade agreement with Cambodia in February—is a far lower priority than showing support for China. Hun Sen was quick to bar entry for citizens of the United States, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. In a country usually welcoming to foreigners, the effect was jarring. Signs appeared in storefronts in Phnom Penh, the capital, barring foreigners from entering.
Cambodia’s ethnic and religious minorities have also become targets of online abuse after being singled out in the government’s reporting on COVID-19. Much of the backlash has focused on the Cham ethnic minority, who make up the majority of Cambodia’s 300,000 Muslims. After a group of Cambodians returning from a conference held by the Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jamaat in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Cambodia’s Ministry of Health issued a press release identifying the cases as among the Muslim community. A flurry of Islamophobic Facebook posts directed at Cambodia’s Muslims followed, and some began shunning Cham-owned businesses. “The Ministry of Health created a problem that didn’t need to exist,” said Robertson, of Human Rights Watch.
The Cambodian government’s deflections of blame serve a dual purpose. They obscure the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, pleasing China by tacitly supporting its narrative that the West is primarily responsible for mishandling the containment of the virus. Within Cambodia, shifting the blame also sows discord and distrust of Western expatriates, many of whom work for human rights groups, just as Hun Sen again steps up authoritarian measures. This “divide and conquer” mentality is another page out of Beijing’s book.
Hun Sen has moved closer to total consolidation of power in Cambodia for years, backed by Chinese money and political support. With the pandemic as an excuse, he might realize his iron-fisted ambitions at last.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-23--‘In the Balkans, if You Neglect History, It Will Backfire’

‘ In the Balkans , if You Neglect History , It Will Backfire ’ The government of Kosovo became the first to collapse in the face of the coronavirus pandemic on March 25 , following a dispute over how to respond to the outbreak .
Prime Minister Albin Kurti imposed restrictions on people ’ s movements to help curb the spread of the virus , while his coalition partners pushed for a declaration of a state of emergency that would have given greater power to the country ’ s president , Hashim Thaci .
But behind the scenes , Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observers of the Balkans , and Kurti himself say U.S. support for the vote of no confidence played an integral role in toppling the government , which had been in power for less than two months .
Kurti was reportedly seen as an obstacle to efforts by the United States ’ Serbia-Kosovo envoy , Richard Grenell , to score a foreign-policy victory for the Trump administration by brokering a deal between Serbia and Kosovo , which fought a war in the late 1990s .
Last week , top Democratic lawmakers on the House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , accusing the administration of being “ heavy-handed ” in its approach to Kosovo and of overlooking Serbia ’ s derecognition campaign against the country , which declared independence in 2008 .
Foreign Policy spoke over Skype with Kurti , who is continuing to serve as acting prime minister of Kosovo .
This interview has been edited for length and clarity .
Foreign Policy : On Sunday , Kosovo President Hashim Thaci tweeted to say he was looking to form a new government sometime this week .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections .
Where do things stand now with forming a new government for Kosovo ?
Albin Kurti : The Republic of Kosovo is a democratic parliamentary republic .
The president is more of a ceremonial figure .
He can not create nor direct political will .
What he ’ s doing is already a breach of the constitution .
He is trying to form a new government in order to avoid new elections , precisely because we all know who ’ s going to win .
Our party , the Movement for Self-Determination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the polls these days .
FP : If you were to hold new elections , when would you look to do that ?
Would you do that during the pandemic ?
AK : No , I ’ m asking for new elections immediately after the pandemic crisis .
So we ’ re doing well in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic—there is no complaint in this respect .
On March 16 , initially , our president was asking for a state of emergency to be declared when we had zero deaths and only 19 infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to calling for a state of emergency being declared ?
AK : According to our constitution , Article 131 , once a state of emergency is declared , the president of the country becomes supreme commander of our armed forces , sort of a general mobilization , and he can put the armed forces in the streets of Kosovo .
And also he takes chairmanship of the security council of our republic , meaning that he would have executive powers as well .
It was so obvious to everyone that he was trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and not really to combat the pandemic .
FP : At a press conference earlier this week , you said U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s envoy , Richard Grenell , played an integral role in bringing down your government .
Can you expand on what role you think Grenell played in this ?
AK : I met first Ambassador Grenell immediately after elections where we won in October last year .
Back then , he said Kosovo had to lift the 100 percent tariff on Serbian goods and in return Serbia has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where Serbia is lobbying everywhere so that certain states will withdraw their recognition of Kosovo and putting up different kinds of obstacles to prevent us joining international organizations .
Later on he went to Kosovo again in January and reiterated the same thing .
But after coming back from Belgrade , he started to abandon , bit by bit , the second part—for Serbia to quit the derecognition campaign .
It was just , “ You [ Kosovo ] have to drop the tariffs.
” He changed his stance for the stance of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it comes to the relationship between Kosovo and the United States .
We always had our stance .
Serbia has its own stance .
The United States was meeting us halfway and usually with the potential to move forward .
I ’ m not saying that the United States is now equal to Serbia , far from it .
This specific official has this specific stance , which is identical to that of Belgrade .
And this is a first .
Never , in our 30-year relationship since 1989 , has an American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stance with Belgrade .
FP : Why do you think that his stance is so similar to that of Serbia ?
AK : We have a very weak president who is trying to be tough internally while counting his days in office .
I think Ambassador Grenell is using the situation , utilizing the shortcut between Thaci and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic toward a certain agreement , to facilitate it and to crown it with a fiesta as a success in the international arena for himself and perhaps this administration .
So he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for a quick fix between the two presidents , and he doesn ’ t care very much about the contents [ of the agreement ] .
He cares about time , and he needs it fast .
He is focused on the signatures at the bottom of the agreement , not on the text of the agreement .
And if you want to do it fast , you pressure the weaker side .
And Serbia is stronger , bigger .
He doesn ’ t care about history .
And in the Balkans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will backfire .
It always comes back .
I think that these kinds of quick fixes are the problem itself .
FP : How does this tie into the vote of no confidence against your government and Grenell ’ s role ?
AK : When Ambassador Grenell couldn ’ t break me , he started to pressure my coalition partner .
Apparently not just threatening them but by maybe making some attractive future offer where they would lead the government , which actually is what they want .
Telling them , “ You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
You can ’ t take over .
Just do this motion of no confidence .
Drop reciprocity , ” and so on and so forth .
FP : Do you think that your coalition partners would have called for a vote of no confidence if it wasn ’ t for Grenell ’ s encouragement ?
AK : I don ’ t think so .
I think that the motor , the international motor behind the motion of no confidence , was definitely Ambassador Grenell .
FP : How do you think that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kosovo view the United States ?
Historically you ’ ve been one of the most pro-American countries in the world .
AK : We still are , but I think that people are a bit worried .
In the background , there is disagreement between Thaci and Vucic because there were secret talks for sure .
I think that there is a secret agreement , perhaps not written to the last detail , and people are very worried because of that .
The fear of what might happen in the future , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Ambassador Grenell .
It is this project of land swaps , which is still alive as an idea and might be embodied by Ambassador Grenell as somebody who is going to become a guarantee for it .
For over two years now , this land swap has been like a specter .
It ’ s in the air .
People are afraid that this specter has found Ambassador Grenell and he is going to go behind the two presidents to do the land swap , which could be interesting for the summer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and new bloodshed because no village wants to end up on the wrong side of the new border .
FP : Grenell has denied talking about land swaps .
On Monday after your press conference , he tweeted , “ There has been absolutely no talk of land swaps from me—and it ’ s never been discussed by anyone else in my presence.
” How do you respond to that ?
AK : He has helped to broker several agreements between Kosovo and Serbia regarding railways and highways and [ the resumption of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And I can imagine that he is interested in the signatures below [ the agreements ] , not on the text above .
Basically his hurry makes him side with Belgrade because if you want a quick fix , then you pressure the weaker side .
I think that he might not have participated in this Thaci-Vucic deal , but I ’ m certain that he must be aware of these secret talks and know of their contents .
So he needs an agreement .
He needs a deal where he can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peacefully , even if that implies a land swap .
I think a territorial exchange is going to lead to more refugees and more conflict and not really new borders as they might think .
You can draw them on a piece of paper , but to turn them into a reality on the ground , it ’ s not doable without conflict .
FP : So just to clarify : Grenell has never discussed land swaps in the presence of you or your team ?
AK : No .
I met him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of time , not of space .
He doesn ’ t speak about territories in the Balkans .
He just needs an agreement .

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foreignpolicy--2020-04-23--To Fast or Not to Fast—That Is the Coronavirus Question for Ramadan

To Fast or Not to Fast—That Is the Coronavirus Question for Ramadan Among the many challenges pious Muslims face during the COVID-19 pandemic is how to commemorate Ramadan , the monthlong religious holiday that begins this week .
Fearful that religious gatherings could increase infections , many governments and religious authorities in Muslim-majority countries have sharply curtailed Ramadan services and communal feasts .
But this year , the biggest controversy surrounds the practice of Ramadan fasting—one of the five pillars of Islam considered absolutely essential for any Muslim who follows their faith.The biggest controversy is over Ramadan fasting , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the coronavirus going around .
Unlike public feasts and gatherings , fasting itself poses no risk of transmitting the disease .
But it has brought up a different question : Is the required total abstinence from food and liquids , including water , from sunrise to sunset each day during Ramadan a health risk—and a stress on the immune system—best avoided with the coronavirus going around ?
Or is it safe , even for people with medical conditions or weakened immune systems ?
From Morocco to Indonesia , governments have already placed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public prayers and iftar , the traditional communal breaking of the fast each evening during Ramadan .
In Egypt—famous for its chaotic and raucous Ramadan celebrations every night from sunset to sunrise—the government has imposed a curfew from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. and is expected to announce new curfew hours for Ramadan this week .
The Saudis have indefinitely closed Mecca , Islam ’ s holiest city , to pilgrims from around the world .
In normal years , several million Muslim worshippers travel there during the month of Ramadan to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , governments have closed all mosques for public gatherings .
Muslim authorities have answered the fasting question with fatwas .
Al-Azhar University in Cairo , considered the top theological authority for Sunni Muslims , issued a statement reminding all Muslims that they must fast this year—no exceptions allowed .
“ Not fasting during Ramadan due to coronavirus is not permissible , and fasting is a duty and a must for Muslims , ” Al-Azhar said in its statement .
In the United Arab Emirates , the grand mufti of Dubai ’ s Islamic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be forgone only by those who are already ill. “ Nothing can excuse one from not fasting , except for ailing people who are on medication and whose health condition may be complicated by fasting , ” said the mufti , Ali Ahmad Mashael .
Citing the Quran , he said the only exceptions are for those who are sick or traveling .
There is little difference between Shiite and Sunni opinion on fasting in times of the coronavirus .
Ayatollah Bashir Hussein al-Najafi , a Shiite cleric in Iraq , issued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immune system and could actually prevent believers from contracting the coronavirus .
As evidence , Najafi quoted a hadith from the Prophet Mohammad advising fasting to “ remain healthy.
” The reality of Ramadan fasting , however , can look very different .
Each year , hospital emergency rooms in the Persian Gulf States are crowded with Ramadan patients , mainly with acute gastroenteritis , or stomach flu.Each year , hospital emergency rooms in the Persian Gulf States are crowded with Ramadan patients , mainly with acute gastroenteritis .
It turns out that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the rest of the year .
Depending on temperatures—Ramadan sometimes falls in the summer , when days are both hotter and longer—hospitals also see cases of dehydration , exhaustion , and stroke .
A brave few have publicly questioned if fasting is for everyone .
In societies that are among the most religious in the world and where Islam is often the state religion , publicly challenging Quranic rules continues to be controversial at best .
At worst , it can lead to criminal prosecution based on laws against blasphemy or insulting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in countries such as Iran , Pakistan , and Saudi Arabia .
That can make criticizing fasting tricky and potentially even dangerous—especially since it is considered one of the holiest duties in Islam .
One of the few who have spoken out in public this year is Noureddine Boukrouh , the former head of the secular Party of Algerian Renewal , who wrote on his Facebook page that “ Muslims need to suspend fasting this year because emptying the body … increases the spread of the virus and will increase the risk of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t take long for him to be criticized for delving into a religious issue .
However , opinions might slowly be changing .
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic , less pious Muslims—including a rising share of people who say they are not religious at all—sometimes resent Ramadan ’ s strict rules .
In most Arab countries , for example , bars and entertainment venues are closed during Ramadan .
Eating in public is frowned on or even illegal—even for non-Muslim minorities .
Sex is forbidden until sunset .
Frustrations are particularly common among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has discovered and studied the benefits of fasting , some form of which is common to many of the world ’ s religions .
They may choose to eat and drink but often do so in private because of social ( or legal ) constraints .
Muslim medical opinion will be slower to change .
In the eyes of some Muslim scholars today , secular science is associated with a morally contaminated West and therefore must be rejected at all cost .
This view is often compounded by the attitude that the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to man to control but to God .
That attitude , however , has not kept Abbas Tabrizian , an Iranian cleric , from claiming he can cure the virus by applying violet essential oil to the anus .
Some call him a doctor of so-called Islamic medicine .
So is Ramadan fasting healthful or not ?
In recent years , medical science has discovered and studied the benefits of fasting , some form of which is common to many of the world ’ s religions .
Intermittent fasting—the kind practiced during Ramadan—can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressure , and help prevent cardiovascular disease , according to a growing body of medical research .
Even some chronic illnesses respond to medically supervised fasting , including arthritis , asthma , and depression .
Muslims around the world have found ways to substitute for traditional Ramadan celebrations , from e-Ramadan services to holding the iftar feast on Zoom .
Improving current fasting habits so they are healthy for everyone will be more difficult .
The good news is that most authorities aren ’ t forcing coronavirus patients to fast .

Among the many challenges pious Muslims face during the COVID-19 pandemic is how to commemorate Ramadan, the monthlong religious holiday that begins this week. Fearful that religious gatherings could increase infections, many governments and religious authorities in Muslim-majority countries have sharply curtailed Ramadan services and communal feasts. But this year, the biggest controversy surrounds the practice of Ramadan fasting—one of the five pillars of Islam considered absolutely essential for any Muslim who follows their faith.
Among the many challenges pious Muslims face during the COVID-19 pandemic is how to commemorate Ramadan, the monthlong religious holiday that begins this week. Fearful that religious gatherings could increase infections, many governments and religious authorities in Muslim-majority countries have sharply curtailed Ramadan services and communal feasts. But this year, the biggest controversy surrounds the practice of Ramadan fasting—one of the five pillars of Islam considered absolutely essential for any Muslim who follows their faith.
Unlike public feasts and gatherings, fasting itself poses no risk of transmitting the disease. But it has brought up a different question: Is the required total abstinence from food and liquids, including water, from sunrise to sunset each day during Ramadan a health risk—and a stress on the immune system—best avoided with the coronavirus going around? Or is it safe, even for people with medical conditions or weakened immune systems?
From Morocco to Indonesia, governments have already placed restrictions on Ramadan festivities, including banning public prayers and iftar, the traditional communal breaking of the fast each evening during Ramadan. In Egypt—famous for its chaotic and raucous Ramadan celebrations every night from sunset to sunrise—the government has imposed a curfew from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. and is expected to announce new curfew hours for Ramadan this week. The Saudis have indefinitely closed Mecca, Islam’s holiest city, to pilgrims from around the world. In normal years, several million Muslim worshippers travel there during the month of Ramadan to do special penance. In most Muslim-majority countries, governments have closed all mosques for public gatherings.
The biggest controversy is over Ramadan fasting, and whether it might be a health risk with the coronavirus going around.
Muslim authorities have answered the fasting question with fatwas. Al-Azhar University in Cairo, considered the top theological authority for Sunni Muslims, issued a statement reminding all Muslims that they must fast this year—no exceptions allowed. “Not fasting during Ramadan due to coronavirus is not permissible, and fasting is a duty and a must for Muslims,” Al-Azhar said in its statement. In the United Arab Emirates, the grand mufti of Dubai’s Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department said fasting may be forgone only by those who are already ill. “Nothing can excuse one from not fasting, except for ailing people who are on medication and whose health condition may be complicated by fasting,” said the mufti, Ali Ahmad Mashael. Citing the Quran, he said the only exceptions are for those who are sick or traveling.
There is little difference between Shiite and Sunni opinion on fasting in times of the coronavirus. Ayatollah Bashir Hussein al-Najafi, a Shiite cleric in Iraq, issued a fatwa saying that fasting strengthens the immune system and could actually prevent believers from contracting the coronavirus. As evidence, Najafi quoted a hadith from the Prophet Mohammad advising fasting to “remain healthy.”
The reality of Ramadan fasting, however, can look very different. Each year, hospital emergency rooms in the Persian Gulf States are crowded with Ramadan patients, mainly with acute gastroenteritis, or stomach flu.Each year, hospital emergency rooms in the Persian Gulf States are crowded with Ramadan patients, mainly with acute gastroenteritis. It turns out that many Muslims eat even more during Ramadan than the rest of the year. Depending on temperatures—Ramadan sometimes falls in the summer, when days are both hotter and longer—hospitals also see cases of dehydration, exhaustion, and stroke.
A brave few have publicly questioned if fasting is for everyone. In societies that are among the most religious in the world and where Islam is often the state religion, publicly challenging Quranic rules continues to be controversial at best. At worst, it can lead to criminal prosecution based on laws against blasphemy or insulting religion—crimes that can be punished by death in countries such as Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. That can make criticizing fasting tricky and potentially even dangerous—especially since it is considered one of the holiest duties in Islam.
One of the few who have spoken out in public this year is Noureddine Boukrouh, the former head of the secular Party of Algerian Renewal, who wrote on his Facebook page that “Muslims need to suspend fasting this year because emptying the body … increases the spread of the virus and will increase the risk of a wider outbreak.” It didn’t take long for him to be criticized for delving into a religious issue.
Read More A worker cleans a bus to avoid the spread of the coronavirus in Tehran on Feb. 26. A worker cleans a bus to avoid the spread of the coronavirus in Tehran on Feb. 26. How an Iranian Airline Tied to Terrorism Likely Spread the Virus (and Lied About It) Why is Iran the flaming epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the Middle East? One of the primary suspects is Mahan Air. Report | Kevjn Lim An Iranian woman walks past an anti-American mural on the wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on May 8, 2018. An Iranian woman walks past an anti-American mural on the wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on May 8, 2018. Iran Knows Who to Blame for the Virus: America and Israel The regime’s ideological army is spinning conspiracy theories even as it helps spread the virus among Iran’s long-suffering people. Argument | Kasra Aarabi Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation on Nov. 25, 2014. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation on Nov. 25, 2014. India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia Beijing’s attempts to encircle New Delhi are being systematically reversed. Analysis | Derek Grossman
However, opinions might slowly be changing. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, less pious Muslims—including a rising share of people who say they are not religious at all—sometimes resent Ramadan’s strict rules. In most Arab countries, for example, bars and entertainment venues are closed during Ramadan. Eating in public is frowned on or even illegal—even for non-Muslim minorities. Sex is forbidden until sunset. Frustrations are particularly common among younger Muslims.In recent years, medical science has discovered and studied the benefits of fasting, some form of which is common to many of the world’s religions. They may choose to eat and drink but often do so in private because of social (or legal) constraints.
Muslim medical opinion will be slower to change. In the eyes of some Muslim scholars today, secular science is associated with a morally contaminated West and therefore must be rejected at all cost. This view is often compounded by the attitude that the coronavirus and other natural dangers are not up to man to control but to God. That attitude, however, has not kept Abbas Tabrizian, an Iranian cleric, from claiming he can cure the virus by applying violet essential oil to the anus. Some call him a doctor of so-called Islamic medicine.
So is Ramadan fasting healthful or not? In recent years, medical science has discovered and studied the benefits of fasting, some form of which is common to many of the world’s religions. Intermittent fasting—the kind practiced during Ramadan—can lower cholesterol levels, reduce high blood pressure, and help prevent cardiovascular disease, according to a growing body of medical research. Even some chronic illnesses respond to medically supervised fasting, including arthritis, asthma, and depression.
Muslims around the world have found ways to substitute for traditional Ramadan celebrations, from e-Ramadan services to holding the iftar feast on Zoom. Improving current fasting habits so they are healthy for everyone will be more difficult. The good news is that most authorities aren’t forcing coronavirus patients to fast.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-23--Biden Must Speak Out Against Israeli Annexation Plans Before It’s Too Late

Biden Must Speak Out Against Israeli Annexation Plans Before It ’ s Too Late The first foreign-policy challenge to a would-be Joe Biden presidency could come well before a single general election vote has been cast .
In Israel , the new national unity government formed this week is poised to proceed with the annexation of large parts of the occupied West Bank as soon as July 1 , and what the former U.S. vice president says about such a portentous move will matter .
He may not be able to prevent the annexation from happening , but what he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what form it takes and—should Biden win in November—on the future course of Israeli policy and U.S.-Israeli relations .
Israel ’ s new government was long in coming .
It was formed after three inconclusive elections and many weeks of negotiations—and only after challenger Benny Gantz , the head of the centrist Blue and White alliance , dropped his demand for the right to veto Israeli policy in the West Bank and granted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greater ability to pick judicial positions .
In exchange , Gantz received the deputy prime ministership @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a commitment that he will take over as prime minister from Netanyahu in 18 months .
A former commander of the Israel Defense Forces , Gantz ’ s position on annexation had been ambiguous , a new politician ’ s attempt to please all sidesGantz , a former commander of the Israel Defense Forces , has been ambiguous on annexation , trying to please all sides .
: He backed it in principle before suggesting that any such move take place “ in coordination with the international community , ” which could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support .
But faced with the option of insisting on the veto—which would have forced another election—or caving and joining the government , he chose the latter .
True , Gantz had essentially abandoned his negotiating leverage beforehand .
By breaking his campaign vow never to be part of a government coalition headed by someone indicted on corruption charges , as Netanyahu has been , Gantz blew up the Blue and White alliance that had presented the prime minister with his stiffest electoral threat in over a decade .
Had a fourth election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely defeat .
Little surprise , then , that he gave Netanyahu a green light to implement his announced plan to annex as much as 30 percent of the West Bank , including the Jordan Valley , as soon as experts have drawn up maps , a process that should be concluded by July 1 .
The coalition agreement says Netanyahu is supposed to take into account “ regional stability , protecting existing peace agreements and aspiring for future ones , ” but that ’ s a fig leaf , since the agreement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s hands .
There is little doubt about Netanyahu ’ s intention to move forward .
With U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration having long made clear their support for annexation—most recently with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ’ s April 22 statement that it was “ Israel ’ s decision to make ” —Netanyahu and his allies will almost certainly want to seize the window of opportunity to act while they ’ re still certain to have Washington ’ s support .
Indeed , the more probable a Biden presidency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Israel ’ s right-wing parties to act , thereby fulfilling a long-standing ideological and political dream .
Shortly after Trump unveiled his Middle East peace plan , which foresees annexations as part of a broader agreement , some of his advisors made clear that they didn ’ t want Israel to rush ahead with actions that would doom their remaining hopes—however unrealistic—that the Palestinians would accept the plan .
Now , however , the administration seems virtually certain to support or even encourage unilateral annexation .
Some on Trump ’ s team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to showcase his pro-Israeli credentials ahead of the election ; others support it out of ideological conviction , believing that burying the two-state solution and cementing the creation of a greater Israel could be one of the Trump administration ’ s signature legacies .
That ’ s where Biden comes in .
He won ’ t be president on July 1 , but what he says could have an impact on what Netanyahu does , the position Gantz takes , and the reactions of the Arab states .
Biden has already expressed his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out now where he stands and what he would do if he were president , Biden might be uniquely placed to persuade Israel to think twice before moving forward with such a fateful step—or at least limit its scope .
At a minimum , Biden could signal what his policies would be if elected .
Biden ’ s first step should simply be to explain clearly why , as a long-standing friend and supporter of Israel , he strongly opposes annexation : because it would jeopardize Israel ’ s future as a democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solution unviable ; because it would damage Israel ’ s relations with Jordan ; because it would violate international law ; because it ignores the rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people ; and because it could be a harbinger of greater regional instability and possibly violence .
An Israel that proceeded with annexation would almost certainly deny equal rights to Palestinians while entrenching a system in which they are compelled to live in disadvantaged , isolated areas surrounded by Israel .
Such an outcome would fundamentally undermine the values that have bolstered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could lead to growing calls in the United States and elsewhere for Palestinians to be granted equal civil and political rights in a single state—a scenario most Israeli Jews reject .
Going further , Biden should declare that his administration would remain faithful to long-standing U.S. policy to support only negotiated territorial changes and withdraw U.S. recognition of annexation , even if Trump tries to create a fait accompli .
Making this stance clear now could influence Netanyahu ’ s choices in July while removing any ambiguity about where the United States would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden should point out that his administration ’ s willingness and ability to shield Israel from international criticism and action in international institutions—measures that are certain to increase if it takes a step considered unjust and illegal by most of the world—will necessarily decline if Israel carries out annexation .
The logic would be straightforward : The United States should not spend valuable political capital to block statements or resolutions when they reflect its own views and policy .
Finally , Biden could explain that the United States should not be asked to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and interests .
Even as the United States continues to support Israel ’ s security , a President Biden could explore ways of deducting any money spent on the annexed territories from generous U.S. assistance , consistent with the long-standing U.S. policy of deducting spending on Israeli settlements in the West Bank from U.S. loan guarantees .
If such a policy were made clear , any decision by Israel ’ s government to nonetheless go forward with annexation would be a sign that it felt secure enough to forgo a portion of U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out these positions would only give Netanyahu further incentive to move quickly and Trump to support him .
Unfortunately , those two leaders don ’ t appear to need any further encouragement , and both may think vigorous support for annexation now will help them remain in power .
If Biden doesn ’ t speak up , it may well be too late—even if he is elected in November .

The first foreign-policy challenge to a would-be Joe Biden presidency could come well before a single general election vote has been cast. In Israel, the new national unity government formed this week is poised to proceed with the annexation of large parts of the occupied West Bank as soon as July 1, and what the former U.S. vice president says about such a portentous move will matter. He may not be able to prevent the annexation from happening, but what he says could have a major impact on what form it takes and—should Biden win in November—on the future course of Israeli policy and U.S.-Israeli relations.
The first foreign-policy challenge to a would-be Joe Biden presidency could come well before a single general election vote has been cast. In Israel, the new national unity government formed this week is poised to proceed with the annexation of large parts of the occupied West Bank as soon as July 1, and what the former U.S. vice president says about such a portentous move will matter. He may not be able to prevent the annexation from happening, but what he says could have a major impact on what form it takes and—should Biden win in November—on the future course of Israeli policy and U.S.-Israeli relations.
Israel’s new government was long in coming. It was formed after three inconclusive elections and many weeks of negotiations—and only after challenger Benny Gantz, the head of the centrist Blue and White alliance, dropped his demand for the right to veto Israeli policy in the West Bank and granted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greater ability to pick judicial positions. In exchange, Gantz received the deputy prime ministership, control over key ministries, and a commitment that he will take over as prime minister from Netanyahu in 18 months. A former commander of the Israel Defense Forces, Gantz’s position on annexation had been ambiguous, a new politician’s attempt to please all sidesGantz, a former commander of the Israel Defense Forces, has been ambiguous on annexation, trying to please all sides.: He backed it in principle before suggesting that any such move take place “in coordination with the international community,” which could be read as practical opposition cloaked in theoretical support. But faced with the option of insisting on the veto—which would have forced another election—or caving and joining the government, he chose the latter.
True, Gantz had essentially abandoned his negotiating leverage beforehand. By breaking his campaign vow never to be part of a government coalition headed by someone indicted on corruption charges, as Netanyahu has been, Gantz blew up the Blue and White alliance that had presented the prime minister with his stiffest electoral threat in over a decade. Had a fourth election been called, Gantz would have faced likely defeat. Little surprise, then, that he gave Netanyahu a green light to implement his announced plan to annex as much as 30 percent of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley, as soon as experts have drawn up maps, a process that should be concluded by July 1. The coalition agreement says Netanyahu is supposed to take into account “regional stability, protecting existing peace agreements and aspiring for future ones,” but that’s a fig leaf, since the agreement also leaves the final decision in Netanyahu’s hands.
There is little doubt about Netanyahu’s intention to move forward. With U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration having long made clear their support for annexation—most recently with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s April 22 statement that it was “Israel’s decision to make”—Netanyahu and his allies will almost certainly want to seize the window of opportunity to act while they’re still certain to have Washington’s support. Indeed, the more probable a Biden presidency, the more urgent it will become for Israel’s right-wing parties to act, thereby fulfilling a long-standing ideological and political dream. Shortly after Trump unveiled his Middle East peace plan, which foresees annexations as part of a broader agreement, some of his advisors made clear that they didn’t want Israel to rush ahead with actions that would doom their remaining hopes—however unrealistic—that the Palestinians would accept the plan. Now, however, the administration seems virtually certain to support or even encourage unilateral annexation. Some on Trump’s team see supporting annexation as a surefire way to showcase his pro-Israeli credentials ahead of the election; others support it out of ideological conviction, believing that burying the two-state solution and cementing the creation of a greater Israel could be one of the Trump administration’s signature legacies.
That’s where Biden comes in. He won’t be president on July 1, but what he says could have an impact on what Netanyahu does, the position Gantz takes, and the reactions of the Arab states. Biden has already expressed his opposition to annexation, but by spelling out now where he stands and what he would do if he were president, Biden might be uniquely placed to persuade Israel to think twice before moving forward with such a fateful step—or at least limit its scope. At a minimum, Biden could signal what his policies would be if elected.
Biden’s first step should simply be to explain clearly why, as a long-standing friend and supporter of Israel, he strongly opposes annexation: because it would jeopardize Israel’s future as a democratic, Jewish state by making a two-state solution unviable; because it would damage Israel’s relations with Jordan; because it would violate international law; because it ignores the rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people; and because it could be a harbinger of greater regional instability and possibly violence. An Israel that proceeded with annexation would almost certainly deny equal rights to Palestinians while entrenching a system in which they are compelled to live in disadvantaged, isolated areas surrounded by Israel. Such an outcome would fundamentally undermine the values that have bolstered traditionally bipartisan U.S. support for Israel and could lead to growing calls in the United States and elsewhere for Palestinians to be granted equal civil and political rights in a single state—a scenario most Israeli Jews reject.
Going further, Biden should declare that his administration would remain faithful to long-standing U.S. policy to support only negotiated territorial changes and withdraw U.S. recognition of annexation, even if Trump tries to create a fait accompli. Making this stance clear now could influence Netanyahu’s choices in July while removing any ambiguity about where the United States would stand if Biden wins.
Third, Biden should point out that his administration’s willingness and ability to shield Israel from international criticism and action in international institutions—measures that are certain to increase if it takes a step considered unjust and illegal by most of the world—will necessarily decline if Israel carries out annexation. The logic would be straightforward: The United States should not spend valuable political capital to block statements or resolutions when they reflect its own views and policy.
Finally, Biden could explain that the United States should not be asked to subsidize annexation policies inconsistent with its values and interests. Even as the United States continues to support Israel’s security, a President Biden could explore ways of deducting any money spent on the annexed territories from generous U.S. assistance, consistent with the long-standing U.S. policy of deducting spending on Israeli settlements in the West Bank from U.S. loan guarantees. If such a policy were made clear, any decision by Israel’s government to nonetheless go forward with annexation would be a sign that it felt secure enough to forgo a portion of U.S. assistance.
Critics might say that spelling out these positions would only give Netanyahu further incentive to move quickly and Trump to support him. Unfortunately, those two leaders don’t appear to need any further encouragement, and both may think vigorous support for annexation now will help them remain in power. If Biden doesn’t speak up, it may well be too late—even if he is elected in November.