foreignpolicy--2020-06-03--The Pentagon Distances Itself from Trump

The Pentagon Distances Itself from Trump Confronted with fierce criticism from retired senior military officials , Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted on Wednesday that the U.S. Defense Department was not playing politics and distanced himself from suggestions by President Donald Trump that the military might be used to quell domestic unrest under the two-century-old Insurrection Act .
“ The option to use active-duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort and only in the most urgent and dire of situations .
We are not in one of those situations now .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Act now , ” Esper said at a news conference .
Esper also said , “ I do everything I can to stay apolitical.
” The comments came after Esper ’ s much-criticized statement to NBC News that he was not aware of Trump ’ s intentions when the Pentagon chief joined the president for a photo-op at St. John ’ s Episcopal Church on Monday after the forcible clearing of peaceful protesters near the White House .
The latest remarks suggested that Esper was consciously distancing himself from Trump , even though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the defense secretary had himself advocated for the invocation of the 1807 Insurrection Act to deploy active-duty forces .
Esper also prompted criticism by calling on governors to “ mass and dominate the battlespace ” in reference to containing rioters .
The defense secretary ’ s remarks to the governors , along with his appearance at Trump ’ s photo-op together with Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley , provoked a spate of fierce criticism from former senior military officials , including Trump ’ s own previous defense secretary , James Mattis , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : “ When I joined the military , some 50 years ago , I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution .
Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief , with military leadership standing alongside , ” Mattis , a former Marine general , said in the statement to reporters .
“ Militarizing our response , as we witnessed in Washington , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conflict—between the military and civilian society.
” In a stunning rebuke to the president he once served , Mattis added : “ Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try .
Instead he tries to divide us .
We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort .
We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership.
” Mattis ’ s criticism was preceded by that of former Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ America is not a battleground .
Our fellow citizens are not the enemy.
” Another former Joint Chiefs chairman , retired Adm. Mike Mullen , wrote in the Atlantic that he was “ sickened ” by the spectacle at the church .
Esper , looking somber behind the podium at the Pentagon , was giving his first public response Wednesday to the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody , a full nine days after the killing sparked nationwide protests .
Appearing to finesse the narrative around the heavily criticized photo-op @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Pentagon chief said he knew that Trump had planned the walk from the White House to the church but was unaware of any clearing of demonstrators from the park in-between .
“ I did know that following the president ’ s remarks on Monday evening that many of us were going to join President Trump and review damage at Lafayette Park and at St. John ’ s Episcopal Church , ” Esper told reporters .
“ What I was not aware of was exactly where we were going when we arrived at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were once we got there.
” “ There ’ s a political tone to this , ” Esper acknowledged .
“ This is a challenge for every Department of Defense during an election year.
” In a memo sent to Pentagon civilians and military members on Tuesday night , he called on the agency “ to stay apolitical in these turbulent days , ” amid concerns that Trump is leveraging a possible military deployment to quell protests and appeal to his voter base ahead of the November election .
Esper ’ s turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broken by Bloomberg , that the defense secretary was on thin ice with Trump for pushing back on the use of the Insurrection Act .
But administration officials indicated that Esper ’ s job would be safe for now , while stopping far short of a full-throated endorsement of the Pentagon chief ’ s job performance .
“ As of right now Secretary Esper is Secretary Esper , ” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Wednesday , adding that Trump has “ the sole authority ” to invoke the Insurrection Act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much of the week separating itself from Trump ’ s response to the protests , Esper was forced to pivot abruptly on another issue Wednesday , reversing an earlier decision to redeploy active-duty soldiers out of the D.C. area , a defense official told Foreign Policy .
Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy told the Associated Press that the move to leave 200 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division in the greater Washington area came after Esper had meetings in the White House and with other Pentagon officials .
The head-spinning turn of events on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appeared to walk back the Pentagon ’ s involvement in Monday ’ s scene , telling reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday that Esper and Milley were unaware that they would join Trump for the walk and that the visit was a surprise .
Esper insisted that Milley , who was criticized for joining the walk in his battle dress , was wearing the “ appropriate uniform ” for reviewing troops , which is what the defense secretary thought would occur on the walk through Lafayette Square , and he said that Park @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tear gas to clear the area , contradicting several eyewitness reports .
But the scenes of the past week have raised concerns that the Trump administration is using the Defense Department in an increasingly political light .
“ I think in the aftermath of this presidency , the Pentagon will need to rebuild trust between civilian and military institutions and leaders , ” said Alice Hunt Friend , a former Pentagon official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies , a Washington think tank .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that civilian leaders will not put them in compromising political positions for those civilians ’ own political benefit.
” Sen. Elizabeth Warren , a former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate who was seen at a protest gathering near the White House on Tuesday night , called on the Pentagon ’ s inspector general to investigate the Defense Department ’ s role in the dispersal of demonstrations .
The District of Columbia National Guard is also investigating a “ low-flying maneuver ” by a medical evacuation helicopter against protesters that went viral on social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Smith , a Democrat , said he plans to call Esper and Milley over to Capitol Hill for a hearing explaining Monday ’ s tumult .
While Esper on Wednesday said he used the term “ battlespace ” to commend Minnesota Gov .
Tim Walz , himself a retired member of the National Guard , on his response to the demonstrations , other former officials told Foreign Policy that the phrase isn ’ t used when referring to U.S. cities .
“ It was a foul up , ” a former military official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to follow that with the photo op in Lafayette park—he and Milley both would pay a lot for a ‘ do over.
’ ” Esper , the source said , relies on jargon “ because it always seems more mission oriented , ” dating back to his time as Trump ’ s secretary of the army .
But the images of members of the National Guard driving convoys through Washington , D.C. , and the surge of 1,600 active-duty U.S. troops into the surrounding area on Tuesday night to deploy onto the streets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eyebrows about the potential use of the military in responding to demonstrations .
“ The decision to use active military forces in crowd control in the United States should only be made as a last resort , ” said Mick Mulroy , a retired U.S. Marine , a former deputy assistant secretary of defense during the Trump administration , and an ABC News analyst .
“ Active Army and Marine Corps units are trained to fight our nation ’ s enemies , not their fellow Americans .
American cities are not battlefields.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This article was updated to include the White House ’ s response to Esper ’ s remarks and Mattis ’ s statement .
It has been further updated to provide details about the U.S. troop deployment to the Washington D.C. area .

Confronted with fierce criticism from retired senior military officials, Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted on Wednesday that the U.S. Defense Department was not playing politics and distanced himself from suggestions by President Donald Trump that the military might be used to quell domestic unrest under the two-century-old Insurrection Act.
Confronted with fierce criticism from retired senior military officials, Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted on Wednesday that the U.S. Defense Department was not playing politics and distanced himself from suggestions by President Donald Trump that the military might be used to quell domestic unrest under the two-century-old Insurrection Act.
“The option to use active-duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort and only in the most urgent and dire of situations. We are not in one of those situations now. I do not support invoking the Insurrection Act now,” Esper said at a news conference. Esper also said, “I do everything I can to stay apolitical.”
The comments came after Esper’s much-criticized statement to NBC News that he was not aware of Trump’s intentions when the Pentagon chief joined the president for a photo-op at St. John’s Episcopal Church on Monday after the forcible clearing of peaceful protesters near the White House. The latest remarks suggested that Esper was consciously distancing himself from Trump, even though the New York Times reported on Tuesday that the defense secretary had himself advocated for the invocation of the 1807 Insurrection Act to deploy active-duty forces. Esper also prompted criticism by calling on governors to “mass and dominate the battlespace” in reference to containing rioters.
The defense secretary’s remarks to the governors, along with his appearance at Trump’s photo-op together with Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley, provoked a spate of fierce criticism from former senior military officials, including Trump’s own previous defense secretary, James Mattis, who issued a scathing statement Wednesday.
“When I joined the military, some 50 years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside,” Mattis, a former Marine general, said in the statement to reporters. “Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington, D.C., sets up a conflict—a false conflict—between the military and civilian society.”
In a stunning rebuke to the president he once served, Mattis added: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership.”
Mattis’s criticism was preceded by that of former Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey, who wrote on Twitter on Monday that “America is not a battleground. Our fellow citizens are not the enemy.” Another former Joint Chiefs chairman, retired Adm. Mike Mullen, wrote in the Atlantic on Tuesday that he was “sickened” by the spectacle at the church.
Esper, looking somber behind the podium at the Pentagon, was giving his first public response Wednesday to the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody, a full nine days after the killing sparked nationwide protests. Appearing to finesse the narrative around the heavily criticized photo-op outside of St. John’s, the Pentagon chief said he knew that Trump had planned the walk from the White House to the church but was unaware of any clearing of demonstrators from the park in-between.
“I did know that following the president’s remarks on Monday evening that many of us were going to join President Trump and review damage at Lafayette Park and at St. John’s Episcopal Church,” Esper told reporters. “What I was not aware of was exactly where we were going when we arrived at the church, and what the plans were once we got there.”
“There’s a political tone to this,” Esper acknowledged. “This is a challenge for every Department of Defense during an election year.” In a memo sent to Pentagon civilians and military members on Tuesday night, he called on the agency “to stay apolitical in these turbulent days,” amid concerns that Trump is leveraging a possible military deployment to quell protests and appeal to his voter base ahead of the November election.
Esper’s turn at the podium prompted reports, first broken by Bloomberg, that the defense secretary was on thin ice with Trump for pushing back on the use of the Insurrection Act. But administration officials indicated that Esper’s job would be safe for now, while stopping far short of a full-throated endorsement of the Pentagon chief’s job performance. “As of right now Secretary Esper is Secretary Esper,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Wednesday, adding that Trump has “the sole authority” to invoke the Insurrection Act.
But after the Defense Department spent much of the week separating itself from Trump’s response to the protests, Esper was forced to pivot abruptly on another issue Wednesday, reversing an earlier decision to redeploy active-duty soldiers out of the D.C. area, a defense official told Foreign Policy. Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy told the Associated Press that the move to leave 200 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division in the greater Washington area came after Esper had meetings in the White House and with other Pentagon officials.
The head-spinning turn of events on Wednesday came after a second defense official appeared to walk back the Pentagon’s involvement in Monday’s scene, telling reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday that Esper and Milley were unaware that they would join Trump for the walk and that the visit was a surprise.
Esper insisted that Milley, who was criticized for joining the walk in his battle dress, was wearing the “appropriate uniform” for reviewing troops, which is what the defense secretary thought would occur on the walk through Lafayette Square, and he said that Park Police had not used rubber bullets or tear gas to clear the area, contradicting several eyewitness reports.
But the scenes of the past week have raised concerns that the Trump administration is using the Defense Department in an increasingly political light.
“I think in the aftermath of this presidency, the Pentagon will need to rebuild trust between civilian and military institutions and leaders,” said Alice Hunt Friend, a former Pentagon official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “The military must be able to trust that civilian leaders will not put them in compromising political positions for those civilians’ own political benefit.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate who was seen at a protest gathering near the White House on Tuesday night, called on the Pentagon’s inspector general to investigate the Defense Department’s role in the dispersal of demonstrations. The District of Columbia National Guard is also investigating a “low-flying maneuver” by a medical evacuation helicopter against protesters that went viral on social media, and House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith, a Democrat, said he plans to call Esper and Milley over to Capitol Hill for a hearing explaining Monday’s tumult.
While Esper on Wednesday said he used the term “battlespace” to commend Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, himself a retired member of the National Guard, on his response to the demonstrations, other former officials told Foreign Policy that the phrase isn’t used when referring to U.S. cities.
“It was a foul up,” a former military official told Foreign Policy. “And then to follow that with the photo op in Lafayette park—he and Milley both would pay a lot for a ‘do over.’”
Esper, the source said, relies on jargon “because it always seems more mission oriented,” dating back to his time as Trump’s secretary of the army.
But the images of members of the National Guard driving convoys through Washington, D.C., and the surge of 1,600 active-duty U.S. troops into the surrounding area on Tuesday night to deploy onto the streets of the capital continued to raise eyebrows about the potential use of the military in responding to demonstrations.
“The decision to use active military forces in crowd control in the United States should only be made as a last resort,” said Mick Mulroy, a retired U.S. Marine, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense during the Trump administration, and an ABC News analyst. “Active Army and Marine Corps units are trained to fight our nation’s enemies, not their fellow Americans. American cities are not battlefields.”
Update, June 3, 2020: This article was updated to include the White House’s response to Esper’s remarks. It has been further updated to provide details about the U.S. troop deployment to the Washington D.C. area. It was subsequently updated to include details of former Defense Secretary James Mattis’s statement to the press.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-03--Is Mexico The Next Coronavirus Epicenter?

Is Mexico The Next Coronavirus Epicenter ?
Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Coronavirus cases spike in Mexico , peaceful protests against racism and police violence continue in the United States , and Cyclone Nisarga approaches Mumbai .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday , please sign up here .
On Tuesday Carissa Etienne , the World Health Organization ’ s regional director for the Americas warned that the coronavirus pandemic in the Western Hemisphere was only likely to get worse , as the effects of economic inequality exacerbate a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus cases in the United States and Brazil—which together account for over one-third of cases worldwide—has grabbed headlines , but it ’ s in Mexico where the pandemic could find its next epicenter .
On Tuesday , Mexico ’ s health ministry reported 3,891 new coronavirus cases , its highest daily number since the outbreak began .
A senior health official has sought to play down the increase .
“ The coronavirus epidemic is at its maximum level of intensity , ” Hugo Lopez-Gatell , Mexico ’ s assistant health secretary and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Tuesday .
At over 10,000 , the number of recorded deaths from coronavirus in Mexico is the third-highest in the Americas , behind United States and Brazil .
No testing , no data .
But what should be troubling for Mexico is the lack of necessary data to track the progress of the virus—it has one of the lowest testing rates in all of Latin America .
“ The Mexican government , unlike many and perhaps most governments , has declared that its epidemiological policy has no intention of counting each and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Associated Press .
“ We are not interested in it , because it is useless , costly and not feasible to test everybody in the country.
” Mexico has instead focused on increasing the number of hospital beds available to treat patients when they fall ill. Mourning in Mexico .
In Foreign Policy , Maya Averbuch reported from the cemeteries and crematoriums of Mexico City and spoke with the grieving families who are still not being told whether their loved ones died of the coronavirus .
“ As a dispute has unfolded over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , families are asking not for answers about how many overall deaths there might be , but for closure in their specific cases , ” she writes .
Peaceful protests continue in U.S. , defying curfews .
Nationwide protests against police violence and systemic racism continued in cities across the United States on Tuesday and demonstrators are expected to return to the streets today .
In Washington D.C. , near the White House , there was a new addition : an 8-foot high steel fence separating protesters from police and other government personnel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city was undermined for an unexpected reason : Some D.C. voters were forced to queue into the early hours of Wednesday morning to cast their ballots in the U.S. presidential primary .
Taliban denies reports of leader ’ s possible death .
A Taliban spokesman has denied a report by Foreign Policy suggesting Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada , the supreme leader of the Afghan Taliban , may had died of COVID-19 .
The report , published on June 1 by Lynne O ’ Donnell and Mirwais Khan , quoted Moulawi Muhammad Ali Jan Ahmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying the leader was “ sick ” but “ recovering.
” The story also reported that the leader had not been seen in three months and that three other Taliban officials , speaking anonymously , believed the leader had died .
Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said Akhundzada was alive , and “ busy with his daily activities.
” Protests strain U.S.-Australia ties .
The Australian Embassy in Washington has been directed by its government to open an investigation into U.S. law enforcement officers assaulting an Australian journalist during Monday ’ s protests at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Robbie Gramer reports , live footage appeared to show a journalist and cameraman from 7NEWS being attacked by U.S. Park Police in riot gear .
Australia ’ s ambassador in Washington , Arthur Sinodinos , said the embassy was “ in discussion with the State Department and they have offered assistance to identify where the complaint should be targeted.
” Cyclone Nisarga approaches Mumbai .
Indian authorities began evacuating residents around Mumbai on Tuesday in preparation for a cyclone due to make landfall today .
The India Meteorological Department ( IMD ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabian Sea “ is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours , and further into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 12 hours.
” It ’ s the second major cyclone in two weeks to hit India after Cyclone Amphan made landfall in West Bengal and neighboring Bangladesh , killing over 100 people .
U.N. misses Yemen aid target .
The United Nations has fallen roughly $ 1 billion short of its target to help fund humanitarian operations in Yemen .
Overall , a pledging event hosted by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international donors , although $ 500 million of that figure came from Saudi Arabia itself .
Speaking before the donor conference , Lise Grande , U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen said the UN ’ s operations would face “ catastrophic cutback ” if less than $ 1.6 billion was raised .
“ We won ’ t be able to provide the food people need to survive , or the health care they need or the water or sanitation or the nutrition support which helps to keep 2 million malnourished children from dying , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s spending on waging war in Yemen to date is believed to be at least $ 265 billion .
Libya cease-fire talks back on .
Cease-fire talks between Libya ’ s warring factions are set to resume , according to the U.N. Mission in Libya .
The two sides—the Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army—will meet over videoconference due to coronavirus precautions .
The move comes as both Turkey and Russia appeared to increase air support for their respective sides in recent weeks .
The U.N. has not said when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Insider Conference Call—What impact have the recent nationwide protests and the global pandemic had on America ’ s security and its interests around the globe ?
On Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. EDT , join Foreign Policy editor in chief Jonathan Tepperman in conversation with Jake Sullivan , a senior foreign-policy advisor to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden , and Kori Schake , the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute , to find out .
Register here .
A popular anti-depressant drug , Zoloft , is in short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in mental health problems caused by the coronavirus pandemic .
The Food and Drug Administration moved the drug to a list of those facing shortages on Friday .
Overall Zoloft has seen a 12 percent increase in prescriptions—to 4.9 million—over the past year , Bloomberg reports .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Coronavirus cases spike in Mexico , peaceful protests against racism and police violence continue in the United States , and Cyclone Nisarga approaches Mumbai.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Coronavirus cases spike in Mexico, peaceful protests against racism and police violence continue in the United States, and Cyclone Nisarga approaches Mumbai.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Mexico Coronavirus Cases Spike, Suggesting an Underreported Outbreak
On Tuesday Carissa Etienne, the World Health Organization’s regional director for the Americas warned that the coronavirus pandemic in the Western Hemisphere was only likely to get worse, as the effects of economic inequality exacerbate a public health crisis. The number of coronavirus cases in the United States and Brazil—which together account for over one-third of cases worldwide—has grabbed headlines, but it’s in Mexico where the pandemic could find its next epicenter.
On Tuesday, Mexico’s health ministry reported 3,891 new coronavirus cases, its highest daily number since the outbreak began. A senior health official has sought to play down the increase. “The coronavirus epidemic is at its maximum level of intensity,” Hugo Lopez-Gatell, Mexico’s assistant health secretary and a leader in the government response, said on Tuesday. At over 10,000, the number of recorded deaths from coronavirus in Mexico is the third-highest in the Americas, behind United States and Brazil.
No testing, no data. But what should be troubling for Mexico is the lack of necessary data to track the progress of the virus—it has one of the lowest testing rates in all of Latin America. “The Mexican government, unlike many and perhaps most governments, has declared that its epidemiological policy has no intention of counting each and every case,” López-Gatell told the Associated Press. “We are not interested in it, because it is useless, costly and not feasible to test everybody in the country.” Mexico has instead focused on increasing the number of hospital beds available to treat patients when they fall ill.
Mourning in Mexico. In Foreign Policy, Maya Averbuch reported from the cemeteries and crematoriums of Mexico City and spoke with the grieving families who are still not being told whether their loved ones died of the coronavirus. “As a dispute has unfolded over Mexico’s management of the crisis, families are asking not for answers about how many overall deaths there might be, but for closure in their specific cases,” she writes.
What We’re Following Today
Peaceful protests continue in U.S., defying curfews. Nationwide protests against police violence and systemic racism continued in cities across the United States on Tuesday and demonstrators are expected to return to the streets today. In Washington D.C., near the White House, there was a new addition: an 8-foot high steel fence separating protesters from police and other government personnel. A 7 p.m. curfew in the city was undermined for an unexpected reason: Some D.C. voters were forced to queue into the early hours of Wednesday morning to cast their ballots in the U.S. presidential primary.
Taliban denies reports of leader’s possible death. A Taliban spokesman has denied a report by Foreign Policy suggesting Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Afghan Taliban, may had died of COVID-19. The report, published on June 1 by Lynne O’Donnell and Mirwais Khan, quoted Moulawi Muhammad Ali Jan Ahmed, a senior Taliban official, as saying the leader was “sick” but “recovering.” The story also reported that the leader had not been seen in three months and that three other Taliban officials, speaking anonymously, believed the leader had died. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said Akhundzada was alive, and “busy with his daily activities.”
Protests strain U.S.-Australia ties. The Australian Embassy in Washington has been directed by its government to open an investigation into U.S. law enforcement officers assaulting an Australian journalist during Monday’s protests at the White House. As FP’s Robbie Gramer reports, live footage appeared to show a journalist and cameraman from 7NEWS being attacked by U.S. Park Police in riot gear. Australia’s ambassador in Washington, Arthur Sinodinos, said the embassy was “in discussion with the State Department and they have offered assistance to identify where the complaint should be targeted.”
Cyclone Nisarga approaches Mumbai. Indian authorities began evacuating residents around Mumbai on Tuesday in preparation for a cyclone due to make landfall today. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that a depression in Arabian Sea “is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours, and further into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 12 hours.” It’s the second major cyclone in two weeks to hit India after Cyclone Amphan made landfall in West Bengal and neighboring Bangladesh, killing over 100 people.
Keep an Eye On
U.N. misses Yemen aid target. The United Nations has fallen roughly $1 billion short of its target to help fund humanitarian operations in Yemen. Overall, a pledging event hosted by Saudi Arabia raised $1.35 billion from international donors, although $500 million of that figure came from Saudi Arabia itself.
Speaking before the donor conference, Lise Grande, U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen said the UN’s operations would face “catastrophic cutback” if less than $1.6 billion was raised. “We won’t be able to provide the food people need to survive, or the health care they need or the water or sanitation or the nutrition support which helps to keep 2 million malnourished children from dying,” she said. Saudi Arabia’s spending on waging war in Yemen to date is believed to be at least $265 billion.
Libya cease-fire talks back on. Cease-fire talks between Libya’s warring factions are set to resume, according to the U.N. Mission in Libya. The two sides—the Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army—will meet over videoconference due to coronavirus precautions. The move comes as both Turkey and Russia appeared to increase air support for their respective sides in recent weeks. The U.N. has not said when exactly talks will take place.
FP Insider Conference Call—What impact have the recent nationwide protests and the global pandemic had on America’s security and its interests around the globe? On Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. EDT, join Foreign Policy editor in chief Jonathan Tepperman in conversation with Jake Sullivan, a senior foreign-policy advisor to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, and Kori Schake, the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, to find out. Register here.
Odds and Ends The Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency has predicted that new solar farms will be cheaper to run than most coal plants by 2021. The agency said the comparison applies to coal plants with a capacity of 1,200 gigawatts versus large solar plants. It is not all rosy for the renewable energy sector; the Paris-based International Energy Agency has forecast a drop in wind and solar power production this year as coronavirus-related factory closures delay construction of new plants.
A popular anti-depressant drug, Zoloft, is in short supply as stocks diminish following a spike in mental health problems caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The Food and Drug Administration moved the drug to a list of those facing shortages on Friday. Overall Zoloft has seen a 12 percent increase in prescriptions—to 4.9 million—over the past year, Bloomberg reports.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-04--Generals Denounce Trump’s Protest Crackdown Plan

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : U.S. military leaders signal opposition to Trump plan to quell protests , Kosovo votes in a new government , and Russia suffers a massive oil spill .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
As protests across the United States enter their tenth day , senior U.S. military personnel have been lining up to voice their opposition to a Trump administration that has signaled its eagerness to unleash military force to put down the demonstrations .
U.S. President Donald Trump hinted on Monday that he may invoke the Insurrection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would allow active duty military personnel to support law enforcement .
It was last used in 1992 to quell riots in California in the aftermath of Rodney King ’ s beating by Los Angeles police .
He has been egged on by Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas , who published an op-ed in the New York Times online Wednesday entitled “ Send In The Troops.
” The piece prompted ridicule online and a rebuke from Times journalists who said the piece endangered the newspaper ’ s black workers .
Will the top brass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Milley , the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the most senior military advisor to Trump , issued a rare memo to the country ’ s armed services reminding them of their duties as well as the rights of their fellow citizens to free assembly .
“ We all committed our lives to the idea that is America—we will stay true to that oath and the American people , ” Milley wrote in the handwritten portion of the memo .
Writing in Foreign Policy , John Allen , a retired U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Brookings Institution also criticized calls for militarization .
“ Right now , the last thing the country needs—and , frankly , the U.S. military needs—is the appearance of U.S. soldiers carrying out the president ’ s intent by descending on American citizens .
This could wreck the high regard Americans have for their military , and much more , ” he wrote .
He has been joined by Trump ’ s previous Secretary of Defense James Mattis who issued a statement denouncing the president .
“ Instructions given by the military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invasion reminded soldiers that ‘ The Nazi slogan for destroying us … was “ Divide and Conquer.
” Our American answer is “ In Union there is Strength.
” ’ We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.
” Esper on the defensive .
As Foreign Policy ’ s Jack Detsch reports , current U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has also moved to put space between himself and the president following Trump ’ s hinting at invoking the Insurrection Act as well as Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The option to use active-duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort and only in the most urgent and dire of situations .
We are not in one of those situations now .
I do not support invoking the Insurrection Act now , ” Esper said at a news conference .
The pushback from Esper has led to speculation that he may soon be out of a job , something White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany did not dismiss .
“ As of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary Esper and should the president lose faith , we will all learn about that in the future , ” she said .
Is it all too much TV ?
Trump is known as an avid television viewer , especially of Fox News , and that could be driving his thinking .
An analysis by Philip Bump of the Washington Post showed that Fox News and Fox Business has been mentioning rioting or rioters six times as much as CNN has over the past week , even as protests have been largely peaceful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the act of voting has led to a wave of cancellations and postponements across the world .
Foreign Policy is keeping track of all the countries who have had their normal voting processes disrupted—see them all in greater depth here .
Johnson floats British citizenship for Hong Kongers .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has voiced his government ’ s support for Hong Kong , offering millions of Hong Kongers the right to live and work in Britain if China imposes new national security laws on the territory .
“ Hong Kong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Johnson wrote in the Times of London .
“ If China proceeds , this would be in direct conflict with its obligations under the joint declaration , a legally binding treaty registered with the United Nations.
” Johnson said that his government would give roughly 3 million Hong Kongers —those holding a British National ( Overseas ) passport and those eligible to receive one—a path to British citizenship .
The move would in theory allow those Hong Kong residents to then emigrate to the United Kingdom , potentially depriving the territory of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keeps G-7 door open to Russia .
U.S. President Donald Trump has said it would be “ common sense ” to allow Russia rejoin the G-7 as it would help streamline decision making in the group .
“ Many of the things that we talk about are about Putin , ” Trump said in a Fox News interview .
“ Have him in the room … get things done.
” On Tuesday , EU Foreign Affairs chief Josep Borrell said that Russia should not be allowed back into the group that was once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes course and the environment allows for the G-8 again to have a meaningful discussion , and this is not currently the case.
” More police charged in George Floyd killing .
The three Minneapolis police officers who looked on as George Floyd was suffocated by their colleague Derek Chauvin have now been charged with aiding and abetting murder .
Chauvin ’ s initial charge has also been upgraded to second-degree murder .
All four officers were already fired for their involvement in Floyd ’ s death .
Gambia calls for investigation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investigation into the killing of the son of one of its U.S.-based diplomats by police officers in the state of Georgia .
Momodou Lamin Sisay , the son of Gambian U.N. diplomat Lare Sisay was shot to death by a police SWAT team following a car chase last Friday .
The Georgia Bureau of Investigation said that Sisay initially fired on police .
Gambia ’ s embassy in Washington has been asked by the country ’ s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to “ engage the relevant U.S. authorities including the State Department to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Hoti takes over as prime minister in Kosovo .
Kosovo has voted in a new government following the dismissal of Albin Kurti ’ s government in March by a no confidence vote .
New Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti has promised to resume dialogue with Serbia and begin removing tariffs it had imposed on its neighbor .
If a deal for mutual recognition can be reached between the two countries , it would pave the way for Serbia to begin accession talks with the European Union .
Minimum income .
Pablo Iglesias , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social rights has joined with the labor ministers of Italy and Portugal to call for a EU-wide minimum income program , to shelter citizens from the worst of Europe ’ s economic downturn .
In contrast to a Universal Basic Income , the minimum income plan would merely top up wages of underpaid workers until it met a desired threshold .
Spain has just embarked on its own version of the program this week , and plans to spend $ 3 billion annually to supplement the incomes of 850,000 households .
Siberian oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of emergency in the city of Norilsk , in Siberia , following a power plant oil spill that has leaked more than 22,000 tons of oil into a nearby river .
It is believed to be the second largest spill by volume in the nation ’ s history and has contaminated an area of 135 square miles .
The spill occurred after a fuel tank , whose foundations were sinking due to melting permafrost , collapsed .
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly berated the head of the company responsible for the spill , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for two days .
A member of the European parliament has been caught without pants in a recent parliamentary appearance .
Luke “ Ming ” Flanagan , MEP for Ireland ’ s Midlands–North-West , was joining the parliament by video chat to discuss agricultural policy , and footage shows the politician revealing more of himself than is usually considered appropriate in the halls of Strasbourg .
Flanagan defended his appearance , saying he had just come indoors from a run , hadn ’ t time to change out of his running shorts , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ camera settings showed him below the waist .
He has faced the blunder in good humor , “ Who could have known that my legs would be so popular .
Should I get them insured ?
” he wrote on Twitter .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. military leaders signal opposition to Trump’s plan to quell protests against police brutality, Kosovo votes in a new government, and Russia suffers a massive oil spill.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. military leaders signal opposition to Trump’s plan to quell protests against police brutality, Kosovo votes in a new government, and Russia suffers a massive oil spill.
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As Trump Threatens Military Force, Generals Push Back
As protests across the United States enter their tenth day, senior U.S. military personnel have been lining up to voice their opposition to a Trump administration that has signaled its eagerness to unleash military force to put down the demonstrations.
U.S. President Donald Trump hinted on Monday that he may invoke the Insurrection Act, a two-century old law that would allow active duty military personnel to support law enforcement. It was last used in 1992 to quell riots in California in the aftermath of Rodney King’s beating by Los Angeles police.
He has been egged on by Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, who published an op-ed in the New York Times online Wednesday entitled “Send In The Troops.” The piece prompted ridicule online and a rebuke from Times journalists who said the piece endangered the newspaper’s black workers.
Will the top brass force Trump to back down? Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the most senior military advisor to Trump, issued a rare memo to the country’s armed services reminding them of their duties as well as the rights of their fellow citizens to free assembly. “We all committed our lives to the idea that is America—we will stay true to that oath and the American people,” Milley wrote in the handwritten portion of the memo.
Writing in Foreign Policy, John Allen, a retired U.S. Marine Corps four-star general and current president of the Brookings Institution also criticized calls for militarization. “Right now, the last thing the country needs—and, frankly, the U.S. military needs—is the appearance of U.S. soldiers carrying out the president’s intent by descending on American citizens. This could wreck the high regard Americans have for their military, and much more,” he wrote.
He has been joined by Trump’s previous Secretary of Defense James Mattis who issued a statement denouncing the president. “Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that ‘The Nazi slogan for destroying us … was “Divide and Conquer.” Our American answer is “In Union there is Strength.”’ We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.”
Esper on the defensive. As Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch reports, current U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has also moved to put space between himself and the president following Trump’s hinting at invoking the Insurrection Act as well as Monday’s controversial church photo op. “The option to use active-duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort and only in the most urgent and dire of situations. We are not in one of those situations now. I do not support invoking the Insurrection Act now,” Esper said at a news conference.
The pushback from Esper has led to speculation that he may soon be out of a job, something White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany did not dismiss. “As of right now, Secretary Esper is still Secretary Esper and should the president lose faith, we will all learn about that in the future,” she said.
Is it all too much TV? Trump is known as an avid television viewer, especially of Fox News, and that could be driving his thinking. An analysis by Philip Bump of the Washington Post showed that Fox News and Fox Business has been mentioning rioting or rioters six times as much as CNN has over the past week, even as protests have been largely peaceful.
Democracy Delayed
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the act of voting has led to a wave of cancellations and postponements across the world. Foreign Policy is keeping track of all the countries who have had their normal voting processes disrupted—see them all in greater depth here.
What We’re Following Today
Johnson floats British citizenship for Hong Kongers. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has voiced his government’s support for Hong Kong, offering millions of Hong Kongers the right to live and work in Britain if China imposes new national security laws on the territory. “Hong Kong succeeds because its people are free,” Johnson wrote in the Times of London. “If China proceeds, this would be in direct conflict with its obligations under the joint declaration, a legally binding treaty registered with the United Nations.”
Johnson said that his government would give roughly 3 million Hong Kongers —those holding a British National (Overseas) passport and those eligible to receive one—a path to British citizenship. The move would in theory allow those Hong Kong residents to then emigrate to the United Kingdom, potentially depriving the territory of almost half its current population.
Trump keeps G-7 door open to Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump has said it would be “common sense” to allow Russia rejoin the G-7 as it would help streamline decision making in the group. “Many of the things that we talk about are about Putin,” Trump said in a Fox News interview. “Have him in the room … get things done.” On Tuesday, EU Foreign Affairs chief Josep Borrell said that Russia should not be allowed back into the group that was once known as the G-8 until it “changes course and the environment allows for the G-8 again to have a meaningful discussion, and this is not currently the case.”
More police charged in George Floyd killing. The three Minneapolis police officers who looked on as George Floyd was suffocated by their colleague Derek Chauvin have now been charged with aiding and abetting murder. Chauvin’s initial charge has also been upgraded to second-degree murder. All four officers were already fired for their involvement in Floyd’s death.
Gambia calls for investigation of police killing. Gambia has demanded an investigation into the killing of the son of one of its U.S.-based diplomats by police officers in the state of Georgia. Momodou Lamin Sisay, the son of Gambian U.N. diplomat Lare Sisay was shot to death by a police SWAT team following a car chase last Friday. The Georgia Bureau of Investigation said that Sisay initially fired on police. Gambia’s embassy in Washington has been asked by the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to “engage the relevant U.S. authorities including the State Department to seek transparent, credible and objective investigation.”
Hoti takes over as prime minister in Kosovo. Kosovo has voted in a new government following the dismissal of Albin Kurti’s government in March by a no confidence vote. New Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti has promised to resume dialogue with Serbia and begin removing tariffs it had imposed on its neighbor. If a deal for mutual recognition can be reached between the two countries, it would pave the way for Serbia to begin accession talks with the European Union.
Keep an Eye On
Minimum income. Pablo Iglesias, Spain’s deputy prime minister for social rights has joined with the labor ministers of Italy and Portugal to call for a EU-wide minimum income program, to shelter citizens from the worst of Europe’s economic downturn. In contrast to a Universal Basic Income, the minimum income plan would merely top up wages of underpaid workers until it met a desired threshold. Spain has just embarked on its own version of the program this week, and plans to spend $3 billion annually to supplement the incomes of 850,000 households.
Siberian oil spill. Russia has declared a state of emergency in the city of Norilsk, in Siberia, following a power plant oil spill that has leaked more than 22,000 tons of oil into a nearby river. It is believed to be the second largest spill by volume in the nation’s history and has contaminated an area of 135 square miles. The spill occurred after a fuel tank, whose foundations were sinking due to melting permafrost, collapsed. Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly berated the head of the company responsible for the spill, after it failed to notify government agencies for two days.
Odds and Ends
A member of the European parliament has been caught without pants in a recent parliamentary appearance. Luke “Ming” Flanagan, MEP for Ireland’s Midlands–North-West, was joining the parliament by video chat to discuss agricultural policy, and footage shows the politician revealing more of himself than is usually considered appropriate in the halls of Strasbourg. Flanagan defended his appearance, saying he had just come indoors from a run, hadn’t time to change out of his running shorts, and didn’t realize his iPad camera settings showed him below the waist. He has faced the blunder in good humor, “Who could have known that my legs would be so popular. Should I get them insured?” he wrote on Twitter.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-04--China’s Steps Backward Began Under Hu Jintao

China ’ s stunningly reckless response to the coronavirus pandemic has hastened the need for an examination of America ’ s problematic policy of engagement with China and a determination of what went wrong .
The conventional answer has been that Xi Jinping changed everything when he became the country ’ s leader in 2013 .
But this implies that the United States ’ engagement policy with China was sound before his rule .
Not so .
While Beijing exhibited some troubling behavior in the 1990s , it was Hu Jintao , Xi ’ s predecessor , who presided over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( CCP ) internal system and foreign policy the following decade .
Understanding changes in China ’ s grand strategy requires a close examination of China ’ s internal politics , now and in the future .
By the time Hu became general secretary of the CCP in 2002 , Deng Xiaoping and his anointed successor Jiang Zemin had radically reformed and opened up the Chinese economy .
Beijing joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 with a huge U.S. assist .
With economic reforms came modest legal and political reforms , such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before local and sometimes central authorities and creating a more consensus-driven elite political system .
Deng and Jiang had created a so-called developmental autocracy akin to South Korea and Taiwan before they democratized in the 1980s .
During this reform period , engaging China in the hopes that both its political system and national interests would converge with those of the United States seemed reasonable .
But China ’ s spectacular economic growth and Beijing ’ s consequent optimism about its future obscured major political changes .
By 2002 , the CCP ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shunted aside by Deng and Jiang , struck back with a vengeance .
Hu struggled against his predecessor Jiang ’ s political moves to remain powerful and influential .
Weakened by this factional fighting , Hu buckled under intense pressure from ideological opponents of “ reform and opening ” and rolled back key economic and legal reforms .
He switched from a pro-entrepreneur economic posture to a policy that created national champions .
Hundreds of industries deemed “ strategic ” were consolidated and secured mass subsidies from the state .
Beijing once again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entrepreneurs in China suddenly had a difficult time accessing capital .
Hu also placated the neo-Marxists politically .
They had argued for expunging so-called spiritual pollution—i.e.
, Western intellectual , political , and cultural influences—from Chinese society .
As internal political attacks against reform and opening continued throughout the early aughts , Hu became alarmed by the pro-democratic color revolutions in Europe and Central Asia and by the Middle East popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring .
Hu ’ s response was to allow his powerful internal security czar , Zhou Yongkang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Xi , who purged him ) , to build an empire of fear .
Zhou became one of the most powerful people in China .
He ruthlessly dealt with dissent , expanding the power and resources of China ’ s internal security apparatus , and reforming the institution .
His influence could be felt in China ’ s courts and intelligence agencies as well .
China began turning into a police state under Hu , not Xi .
Hu also set the stage for Xi ’ s aggressive international diplomacy and accelerated military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Xi ’ s Belt and Road Initiative , asking Chinese state-owned enterprises to “ scavenge ” the earth for commodities and buy up and invest in overseas companies .
He announced “ New Historic Missions ” by the Chinese military to protect the country ’ s growing overseas commercial interests , and he began to aggressively advance China ’ s maritime claims , while pushing the military to leverage international task forces ’ missions in the Middle East and Africa to improve China ’ s power projection capabilities and develop a network @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s efforts to build ports and naval facilities throughout the Indian Ocean to protect its energy supplies—its “ string of pearls strategy ” —began under Hu .
To explain his national goals , and long before Xi adopted the phrase , Hu used the term “ rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
” Under Hu , China ’ s rubber-stamp parliament passed an anti-secession law expanding justifications to allow China to go to war against Taiwan , and China provocatively tested an anti-satellite weapon to signal that it could challenge the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysts missed this hard turn in Chinese domestic and economic policy .
China was still engaging in a charm offensive throughout Southeast Asia and wowed countries with its “ Beijing model ” of authoritarian capitalism abroad .
China ’ s economy was also still booming from the changes it had made in the 1980s and 1990s that allowed it decades of growth .
It was thus easy to miss Hu ’ s reversals of economic reforms .
Some Chinese aggressive actions were harder to overlook .
Even though China was also suffering economically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ believed the United States was suffering more and thus took a confrontational approach toward Washington in the aftermath .
Consider the CCP ’ s 2009 humiliation of U.S. President Barack Obama at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen , where the Chinese delegation tanked the talks .
Beijing embarrassed the U.S. president again during his first trip to China later that year .
Obama was lectured on U.S. economic policy , restricted from speaking to ordinary Chinese citizens , and ignored on human rights issues .
The Chinese were also more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core interests , ” and Hu insisted that China needed more influence and power in international politics .
Hu also turned China ’ s attention to the South China Sea , which it viewed as America ’ s soft underbelly .
He directed China ’ s military and diplomats to launch a full-court press in Southeast Asia .
Foreign oil companies exploring in these seas were sent démarches as objections and were harassed by Chinese naval and civilian law enforcement vessels , even when in international waters .
Beijing buttressed its administrative control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international oil companies were told to stop joint exploration with other South China Sea maritime claimants such as Malaysia , the Philippines , and Vietnam .
These countries faced unrelenting Chinese diplomatic pressure to cease fishing and oil exploration .
In essence , China began treating the South China Sea as Chinese waters—and the activities of other countries in them as violations of China ’ s laws .
Under Hu , the Chinese navy sent a task force to circle the entire South China Sea and conduct exercises , beginning the now-regular pattern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines to demonstrate its freedom of action in the Western Pacific .
The navy also stationed vessels near several disputed reefs .
Beijing ’ s aggression ( and U.S. objections ) dominated the July 2010 meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum .
The Scarborough Shoal in the Spratly Islands , close to the Philippines , now exemplifies Chinese attempts to control the South China Sea .
Tensions began when the Philippines caught Chinese vessels illegally exploiting the waters around the shoal and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s responded aggressively to the Philippines by boycotting exports , harassing ships , initiating military pressure , and imposing a unilateral fishing ban .
By the end of Hu ’ s term , China effectively controlled Scarborough Shoal , had started regular patrols in the South China Sea , begun the militarization of islets , and strengthened what it called the Sansha administrative district to govern territories within the South China Sea .
Sensing how much resistance this would cause , Hu warned the Chinese navy to “ prepare for warfare.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He has centralized authority and developed a cult of personality that is comparable to Mao Zedong ’ s .
He has done away with the established two-term limit and anointed no successor , leaving no endpoint to his rule .
As the CCP response to the coronavirus has shown , he has instilled such fear among officials nationwide that no one will act without permission .
He has also been far more open about creating a Chinese world order and challenging the United States for global leadership .
Still , Xi ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hu ’ s .
They are built on them .
U.S. policymakers had ample opportunity to reassess U.S.-China engagement before the current pandemic .
And , instead of reevaluating the Sino-American relationship as China grew more aggressive and repressive from 2002 until today , Washington asked the CCP to join in providing global public goods such as international maritime security .
The United States must pay close attention to internal changes within the CCP .
A more moderate regime will temper Chinese foreign policy .
More internal repression equals a more aggressive government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysts to watch is the internal reaction to Xi ’ s massive mistakes , including to the biggest : failing to respond rapidly enough to the coronavirus outbreak .
Elites in China were already frustrated with Xi ’ s internal and foreign overreach , which they argue caused the United States to impose tariffs , support Taiwan , and increase pushback in the South China Sea .
Worrisomely , Xi ’ s foreign policy will likely become more aggressive as he looks for victories abroad , though a serious internal political fracturing could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unknown directions .

China’s stunningly reckless response to the coronavirus pandemic has hastened the need for an examination of America’s problematic policy of engagement with China and a determination of what went wrong. The conventional answer has been that Xi Jinping changed everything when he became the country’s leader in 2013. But this implies that the United States’ engagement policy with China was sound before his rule. Not so. While Beijing exhibited some troubling behavior in the 1990s, it was Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor, who presided over changes the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) internal system and foreign policy the following decade. Understanding changes in China’s grand strategy requires a close examination of China’s internal politics, now and in the future.
China’s stunningly reckless response to the coronavirus pandemic has hastened the need for an examination of America’s problematic policy of engagement with China and a determination of what went wrong. The conventional answer has been that Xi Jinping changed everything when he became the country’s leader in 2013. But this implies that the United States’ engagement policy with China was sound before his rule. Not so. While Beijing exhibited some troubling behavior in the 1990s, it was Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor, who presided over changes the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) internal system and foreign policy the following decade. Understanding changes in China’s grand strategy requires a close examination of China’s internal politics, now and in the future.
By the time Hu became general secretary of the CCP in 2002, Deng Xiaoping and his anointed successor Jiang Zemin had radically reformed and opened up the Chinese economy. Beijing joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 with a huge U.S. assist. With economic reforms came modest legal and political reforms, such as allowing lawyers to redress citizen grievances before local and sometimes central authorities and creating a more consensus-driven elite political system. Deng and Jiang had created a so-called developmental autocracy akin to South Korea and Taiwan before they democratized in the 1980s. During this reform period, engaging China in the hopes that both its political system and national interests would converge with those of the United States seemed reasonable.
But China’s spectacular economic growth and Beijing’s consequent optimism about its future obscured major political changes. By 2002, the CCP’s conservative neo-Marxists, who had been shunted aside by Deng and Jiang, struck back with a vengeance. Hu struggled against his predecessor Jiang’s political moves to remain powerful and influential. Weakened by this factional fighting, Hu buckled under intense pressure from ideological opponents of “reform and opening” and rolled back key economic and legal reforms. He switched from a pro-entrepreneur economic posture to a policy that created national champions. Hundreds of industries deemed “strategic” were consolidated and secured mass subsidies from the state. Beijing once again protected failing Chinese state-owned enterprises. Private entrepreneurs in China suddenly had a difficult time accessing capital.
Hu also placated the neo-Marxists politically. They had argued for expunging so-called spiritual pollution—i.e., Western intellectual, political, and cultural influences—from Chinese society. As internal political attacks against reform and opening continued throughout the early aughts, Hu became alarmed by the pro-democratic color revolutions in Europe and Central Asia and by the Middle East popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring. Hu’s response was to allow his powerful internal security czar, Zhou Yongkang (later considered a political opponent by Xi, who purged him), to build an empire of fear. Zhou became one of the most powerful people in China. He ruthlessly dealt with dissent, expanding the power and resources of China’s internal security apparatus, and reforming the institution. His influence could be felt in China’s courts and intelligence agencies as well. China began turning into a police state under Hu, not Xi.
Hu also set the stage for Xi’s aggressive international diplomacy and accelerated military modernization program. He developed a precursor to Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, asking Chinese state-owned enterprises to “scavenge” the earth for commodities and buy up and invest in overseas companies. He announced “New Historic Missions” by the Chinese military to protect the country’s growing overseas commercial interests, and he began to aggressively advance China’s maritime claims, while pushing the military to leverage international task forces’ missions in the Middle East and Africa to improve China’s power projection capabilities and develop a network of basing and logistical hubs. China’s efforts to build ports and naval facilities throughout the Indian Ocean to protect its energy supplies—its “string of pearls strategy”—began under Hu.
To explain his national goals, and long before Xi adopted the phrase, Hu used the term “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Under Hu, China’s rubber-stamp parliament passed an anti-secession law expanding justifications to allow China to go to war against Taiwan, and China provocatively tested an anti-satellite weapon to signal that it could challenge the United States in space.
Understandably, most U.S. analysts missed this hard turn in Chinese domestic and economic policy. China was still engaging in a charm offensive throughout Southeast Asia and wowed countries with its “Beijing model” of authoritarian capitalism abroad. China’s economy was also still booming from the changes it had made in the 1980s and 1990s that allowed it decades of growth. It was thus easy to miss Hu’s reversals of economic reforms.
Some Chinese aggressive actions were harder to overlook. Even though China was also suffering economically from the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing believed the United States was suffering more and thus took a confrontational approach toward Washington in the aftermath. Consider the CCP’s 2009 humiliation of U.S. President Barack Obama at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, where the Chinese delegation tanked the talks. Beijing embarrassed the U.S. president again during his first trip to China later that year. Obama was lectured on U.S. economic policy, restricted from speaking to ordinary Chinese citizens, and ignored on human rights issues. The Chinese were also more emphatic about standing up for their “core interests,” and Hu insisted that China needed more influence and power in international politics.
Hu also turned China’s attention to the South China Sea, which it viewed as America’s soft underbelly. He directed China’s military and diplomats to launch a full-court press in Southeast Asia. Foreign oil companies exploring in these seas were sent démarches as objections and were harassed by Chinese naval and civilian law enforcement vessels, even when in international waters. Beijing buttressed its administrative control of disputed waters and islets, and international oil companies were told to stop joint exploration with other South China Sea maritime claimants such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. These countries faced unrelenting Chinese diplomatic pressure to cease fishing and oil exploration. In essence, China began treating the South China Sea as Chinese waters—and the activities of other countries in them as violations of China’s laws.
Under Hu, the Chinese navy sent a task force to circle the entire South China Sea and conduct exercises, beginning the now-regular pattern of cutting through the Japanese archipelago and the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines to demonstrate its freedom of action in the Western Pacific. The navy also stationed vessels near several disputed reefs. Beijing’s aggression (and U.S. objections) dominated the July 2010 meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum.
The Scarborough Shoal in the Spratly Islands, close to the Philippines, now exemplifies Chinese attempts to control the South China Sea. Tensions began when the Philippines caught Chinese vessels illegally exploiting the waters around the shoal and attempted to chase them away. China’s responded aggressively to the Philippines by boycotting exports, harassing ships, initiating military pressure, and imposing a unilateral fishing ban. By the end of Hu’s term, China effectively controlled Scarborough Shoal, had started regular patrols in the South China Sea, begun the militarization of islets, and strengthened what it called the Sansha administrative district to govern territories within the South China Sea. Sensing how much resistance this would cause, Hu warned the Chinese navy to “prepare for warfare.”
Xi has gone further than Hu. He has centralized authority and developed a cult of personality that is comparable to Mao Zedong’s. He has done away with the established two-term limit and anointed no successor, leaving no endpoint to his rule. As the CCP response to the coronavirus has shown, he has instilled such fear among officials nationwide that no one will act without permission. He has also been far more open about creating a Chinese world order and challenging the United States for global leadership.
Still, Xi’s policies are not a radical break from Hu’s. They are built on them. U.S. policymakers had ample opportunity to reassess U.S.-China engagement before the current pandemic. And, instead of reevaluating the Sino-American relationship as China grew more aggressive and repressive from 2002 until today, Washington asked the CCP to join in providing global public goods such as international maritime security.
The United States must pay close attention to internal changes within the CCP. A more moderate regime will temper Chinese foreign policy. More internal repression equals a more aggressive government. The next thing for policymakers and analysts to watch is the internal reaction to Xi’s massive mistakes, including to the biggest: failing to respond rapidly enough to the coronavirus outbreak.
Elites in China were already frustrated with Xi’s internal and foreign overreach, which they argue caused the United States to impose tariffs, support Taiwan, and increase pushback in the South China Sea. Worrisomely, Xi’s foreign policy will likely become more aggressive as he looks for victories abroad, though a serious internal political fracturing could send China’s foreign policy in unknown directions.


foreignpolicy--2020-06-04--Esper Orders Some U.S. Troops Deployed for Protests to Leave Washington

Esper Orders Some U.S .
Troops Deployed for Protests to Leave Washington Several hundred active-duty U.S. troops on standby to deal with protests in the Washington , D.C. , area will redeploy back home on Defense Secretary Mark Esper ’ s orders , two defense officials told Foreign Policy , coming just one day after the Pentagon chief reversed a decision to send the unit home .
The Pentagon made the decision to send elements of the 82nd Airborne Division home to Fort Bragg , North Carolina , about a week after they were deployed to Washington , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city itself .
While between 500 to 700 troops leave , some elements of the unit will remain in the greater Washington area on the Virginia side of the river , one of the officials told Foreign Policy .
But today ’ s move comes as Esper , who told reporters on Wednesday that he did not support invoking the Insurrection Act to quell protests , finds himself increasingly at odds with the president and other administration officials over the military response to demonstrations sweeping the United States in the week since an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ custody .
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany pointedly did not endorse the Pentagon chief ’ s job performance at a briefing on Wednesday , and she said it was President Donald Trump ’ s “ decision alone ” to invoke the Insurrection Act .
Meanwhile , there are now 4,500 National Guard troops deployed in the nation ’ s capital as the presence of U.S. reservists in there surged in recent days , with more than 3,000 troops coming from other states .
Yet Thursday ’ s decision could still stoke tensions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House has warned of looting in the D.C. area and erected fences around Lafayette Square after both men earned public derision for walking through the area for a photo-op after U.S. Park Police forcibly cleared nearby protesters .
Trump hinted at using the centuries-old Insurrection Act in a Rose Garden speech on Monday .
The 1807 U.S. law allows active-duty American troops to be sent in to help local police or the National Guard stop riots , though demonstrations in Washington have been mostly peaceful since the weekend , allowing Mayor Muriel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nightly curfews on Thursday .
The commander in chief appeared to soften his rhetoric in an interview with his former press secretary Sean Spicer last night .
“ I don ’ t think we ’ ll have to , ” Trump said of using active-duty forces on Newsmax TV .
“ We have very strong powers to do it .
The National Guard is customary and we have a very powerful National Guard.
” But the dramatic clearing of Lafayette Park has nonetheless prompted a stunning procession of high-ranking former Defense Department and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s spectacle , including former Defense Secretary James Mattis , who also took a shot at Esper , his immediate non-acting successor , in a strongly worded statement shared with Foreign Policy and other outlets .
Mattis had previously declined to comment on Esper during a recent book tour .
“ It ’ s extraordinary that he ’ s condemning Esper ’ s use of the military for protests , ” said Guy Snodgrass , a retired U.S. Navy aviator and a onetime speechwriter for Mattis during his tenure as defense secretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s legs like this he ’ s gone against his own principles .
”

Several hundred active-duty U.S. troops on standby to deal with protests in the Washington, D.C., area will redeploy back home on Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s orders, two defense officials told Foreign Policy , coming just one day after the Pentagon chief reversed a decision to send the unit home.
Several hundred active-duty U.S. troops on standby to deal with protests in the Washington, D.C., area will redeploy back home on Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s orders, two defense officials told Foreign Policy, coming just one day after the Pentagon chief reversed a decision to send the unit home.
The Pentagon made the decision to send elements of the 82nd Airborne Division home to Fort Bragg, North Carolina, about a week after they were deployed to Washington, and the units had never been called into the city itself. While between 500 to 700 troops leave, some elements of the unit will remain in the greater Washington area on the Virginia side of the river, one of the officials told Foreign Policy.
But today’s move comes as Esper, who told reporters on Wednesday that he did not support invoking the Insurrection Act to quell protests, finds himself increasingly at odds with the president and other administration officials over the military response to demonstrations sweeping the United States in the week since an African American man was asphyxiated in police custody. White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany pointedly did not endorse the Pentagon chief’s job performance at a briefing on Wednesday, and she said it was President Donald Trump’s “decision alone” to invoke the Insurrection Act.
Meanwhile, there are now 4,500 National Guard troops deployed in the nation’s capital as the presence of U.S. reservists in there surged in recent days, with more than 3,000 troops coming from other states. Yet Thursday’s decision could still stoke tensions between Trump and Esper, as the White House has warned of looting in the D.C. area and erected fences around Lafayette Square after both men earned public derision for walking through the area for a photo-op after U.S. Park Police forcibly cleared nearby protesters.
Trump hinted at using the centuries-old Insurrection Act in a Rose Garden speech on Monday. The 1807 U.S. law allows active-duty American troops to be sent in to help local police or the National Guard stop riots, though demonstrations in Washington have been mostly peaceful since the weekend, allowing Mayor Muriel Bowser to relax a weeklong practice of nightly curfews on Thursday.
The commander in chief appeared to soften his rhetoric in an interview with his former press secretary Sean Spicer last night. “I don’t think we’ll have to,” Trump said of using active-duty forces on Newsmax TV. “We have very strong powers to do it. The National Guard is customary and we have a very powerful National Guard.”
Today’s move cuts a large portion of the 1,600 U.S. troops deployed to the Washington area. Earlier in the week, Esper had ordered the movement of an infantry battalion and a military police unit based at Fort Bragg. Another military police unit from Fort Drum, New York, has also been sent to the nation’s capital.
But the dramatic clearing of Lafayette Park has nonetheless prompted a stunning procession of high-ranking former Defense Department and military officials to rebuke Trump over Monday’s spectacle, including former Defense Secretary James Mattis, who also took a shot at Esper, his immediate non-acting successor, in a strongly worded statement shared with Foreign Policy and other outlets. Mattis had previously declined to comment on Esper during a recent book tour.
“It’s extraordinary that he’s condemning Esper’s use of the military for protests,” said Guy Snodgrass, a retired U.S. Navy aviator and a onetime speechwriter for Mattis during his tenure as defense secretary. “With Mattis chopping out Esper’s legs like this he’s gone against his own principles.”


foreignpolicy--2020-06-04--Putin Is Warping Russia’s Pandemic Response

As with every country , Russia is struggling with the impact of the pandemic .
But the situation there is shaped less by the actual dynamics of the country ’ s coronavirus epidemic than by the political system that currently exists around President Vladimir Putin—at least for now .
Reality has an unfortunate habit of overtaking politics , however .
The government—which has been promising Russians that , unlike Western democracies , it is capable of decisive actions if necessary—has been shirking all responsibility , leaving the citizens to fend for themselves .
The system that Putin has created is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : issuing fines , restricting movement , and making threats .
Unwilling to give people money despite the huge reserves that it has amassed , the regime appears to view the cash in state coffers as its own personal funds .
The government has announced the gradual lifting of restrictions and a reopening of enterprises—despite the fact that the situation is hundreds of times worse right now than it was when the restrictions were imposed .
Russians don ’ t trust official statistics—or at least , I ’ ve never met any who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this out .
It seems very likely that the data is being falsified and statistics are being doctored to suit the president ’ s agenda .
The same is true for statistics on deaths , as Western news outlets have already reported .
There is no easy way for Russians to check the numbers , not just because there are no alternative systems for tracking the data , but also because Kremlin-controlled television channels brand anyone who expresses doubts about the official data as enemies and traitors .
The State Duma has already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminally responsible for circulating information that has not been approved by the government .
As with other opaque states , analysts can try to work from proxy data to get a glimmer of the truth , but that ’ s not an option for ordinary Russians .
Instead , they are left in a fog of doubt that in itself is costing lives .
Used to the fact that the authorities never admit the truth , some Russians don ’ t believe that the pandemic is real , or believe that the threat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compliance with restrictions is considerably worse than even in the United States .
In areas where the police don ’ t monitor compliance , people frequently don ’ t wear masks and fail to follow social distancing protocols .
At the same time , there are also many conspiracy theories—in part encouraged by the authorities—that attribute the emergence of the virus to the ill will of Russia ’ s enemies .
Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeev , an alleged sponsor of the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine , has already asked the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into this .
The pandemic has highlighted the true priorities of the Russian authorities .
Until recently , Russia was the only G-20 country that had not provided any direct financial assistance to its citizens .
The few small assistance programs that are available require overcoming bureaucratic hurdles that are prohibitively difficult for regular people to access .
The Russian government cares more about optics than about the real state of affairs .
Doctors who decry the catastrophic shortage of personal protective equipment are being forced to take back their words or even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Doctors volunteer network , which collects donations to buy masks and hazmat suits , is being vilified in the media , and the organization ’ s activists are being fined for violating quarantine measures .
Putin had promised doctors who work with COVID-19 patients hazard pay of 80,000 rubles a month ( a little more than $ 1,000 ) , a widely publicized step by compliant media .
However , right after the incentive was announced , the government passed additional instructions on “ per case ” payments reduced to $ 5-10 a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a medical orderly received a bonus of just $ 0.30 .
Some medical professionals have seen their salaries decrease on spurious grounds .
It was only when a scandal erupted that the authorities were forced to take steps to remedy the situation .
All of this is not simply incompetence .
The lives of the citizens—not to mention their health—hold no value for an authoritarian regime that does not answer to the people .
The tradition of treating citizens like a renewable resource did not disappear with the collapse of the communist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t immune to public opinion , the uncertainty and doubt generated by manipulating statistics and blaming outsiders helps keep things from reaching boiling point .
Despite the crisis , Putin ’ s chosen course for a global standoff with the West and the increase in his personal power will not be revised .
The Russian president hopes that the pandemic—the worst challenge to the stability and effectiveness of both democracies and dictatorships since World War II—will showcase the advantages of dictatorships .
There is nothing that can make him reject the foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continued dismantlement of democratic institutions in Russia .
The vote on constitutional amendments that will essentially keep Putin in power for life will likely be held very soon .
And the measures to control people introduced during the pandemic will most likely remain in place—they are fully in line with the ideology of the Putin system .
All this is not without cost .
The political consequences of the epidemic for Russia will be very serious .
Putin ’ s approval rating has fallen to the lowest levels in recent years ; the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has gone down by more than half since the fall of 2017 ; and the approval of his actions as president dropped by 4 percentage points between the end of March and the end of April .
Putin ’ s endless talk about new Russian weapons no longer elicits a reaction from the public .
Many scenarios are possible : Putin could use the failures as an excuse to clean house or to quash dissent , pushing Russia back to a fully totalitarian state .
But the government ’ s complete disdain for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obvious even to those who had until recently supported the regime .
It is also crucial that respect for the president has plummeted not only among the general public but also among the elites .
His lack of action and silence during the first stage of the epidemic ( reminiscent of Joseph Stalin ’ s behavior during the first days of World War II ) has prompted many to accuse him of cowardice .
The magic may finally have disappeared from Putin ’ s rule .
A version of this essay was previously @ @ @ @ @ @

As with every country, Russia is struggling with the impact of the pandemic. But the situation there is shaped less by the actual dynamics of the country’s coronavirus epidemic than by the political system that currently exists around President Vladimir Putin—at least for now. Reality has an unfortunate habit of overtaking politics, however.
As with every country, Russia is struggling with the impact of the pandemic. But the situation there is shaped less by the actual dynamics of the country’s coronavirus epidemic than by the political system that currently exists around President Vladimir Putin—at least for now. Reality has an unfortunate habit of overtaking politics, however.
The government—which has been promising Russians that, unlike Western democracies, it is capable of decisive actions if necessary—has been shirking all responsibility, leaving the citizens to fend for themselves. The system that Putin has created is doing what it knows how to do: issuing fines, restricting movement, and making threats. Unwilling to give people money despite the huge reserves that it has amassed, the regime appears to view the cash in state coffers as its own personal funds. The government has announced the gradual lifting of restrictions and a reopening of enterprises—despite the fact that the situation is hundreds of times worse right now than it was when the restrictions were imposed.
Russians don’t trust official statistics—or at least, I’ve never met any who do. The epidemic numbers have born this out. It seems very likely that the data is being falsified and statistics are being doctored to suit the president’s agenda. The same is true for statistics on deaths, as Western news outlets have already reported.
There is no easy way for Russians to check the numbers, not just because there are no alternative systems for tracking the data, but also because Kremlin-controlled television channels brand anyone who expresses doubts about the official data as enemies and traitors. The State Duma has already passed laws allowing individuals to be held criminally responsible for circulating information that has not been approved by the government. As with other opaque states, analysts can try to work from proxy data to get a glimmer of the truth, but that’s not an option for ordinary Russians. Instead, they are left in a fog of doubt that in itself is costing lives.
Used to the fact that the authorities never admit the truth, some Russians don’t believe that the pandemic is real, or believe that the threat is exaggerated. Because of this, compliance with restrictions is considerably worse than even in the United States. In areas where the police don’t monitor compliance, people frequently don’t wear masks and fail to follow social distancing protocols. At the same time, there are also many conspiracy theories—in part encouraged by the authorities—that attribute the emergence of the virus to the ill will of Russia’s enemies. Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeev, an alleged sponsor of the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, has already asked the Russian prosecutor-general to conduct an official investigation into this.
The pandemic has highlighted the true priorities of the Russian authorities. Until recently, Russia was the only G-20 country that had not provided any direct financial assistance to its citizens. The few small assistance programs that are available require overcoming bureaucratic hurdles that are prohibitively difficult for regular people to access.
The Russian government cares more about optics than about the real state of affairs. Doctors who decry the catastrophic shortage of personal protective equipment are being forced to take back their words or even make public apologies.
The Alliance of Doctors volunteer network, which collects donations to buy masks and hazmat suits, is being vilified in the media, and the organization’s activists are being fined for violating quarantine measures.
Putin had promised doctors who work with COVID-19 patients hazard pay of 80,000 rubles a month (a little more than $1,000), a widely publicized step by compliant media. However, right after the incentive was announced, the government passed additional instructions on “per case” payments reduced to $5-10 a month. In one particularly egregious case, a medical orderly received a bonus of just $0.30. Some medical professionals have seen their salaries decrease on spurious grounds.
It was only when a scandal erupted that the authorities were forced to take steps to remedy the situation.
All of this is not simply incompetence. The lives of the citizens—not to mention their health—hold no value for an authoritarian regime that does not answer to the people. The tradition of treating citizens like a renewable resource did not disappear with the collapse of the communist regime. And while authoritarian regimes aren’t immune to public opinion, the uncertainty and doubt generated by manipulating statistics and blaming outsiders helps keep things from reaching boiling point.
Despite the crisis, Putin’s chosen course for a global standoff with the West and the increase in his personal power will not be revised. The Russian president hopes that the pandemic—the worst challenge to the stability and effectiveness of both democracies and dictatorships since World War II—will showcase the advantages of dictatorships. There is nothing that can make him reject the foreign policy of the recent years and the continued dismantlement of democratic institutions in Russia. The vote on constitutional amendments that will essentially keep Putin in power for life will likely be held very soon. And the measures to control people introduced during the pandemic will most likely remain in place—they are fully in line with the ideology of the Putin system.
All this is not without cost. The political consequences of the epidemic for Russia will be very serious. Putin’s approval rating has fallen to the lowest levels in recent years; the level of public trust in the president has gone down by more than half since the fall of 2017; and the approval of his actions as president dropped by 4 percentage points between the end of March and the end of April. Putin’s endless talk about new Russian weapons no longer elicits a reaction from the public.
Many scenarios are possible: Putin could use the failures as an excuse to clean house or to quash dissent, pushing Russia back to a fully totalitarian state. But the government’s complete disdain for the interests of the people is now obvious even to those who had until recently supported the regime. It is also crucial that respect for the president has plummeted not only among the general public but also among the elites. His lack of action and silence during the first stage of the epidemic (reminiscent of Joseph Stalin’s behavior during the first days of World War II) has prompted many to accuse him of cowardice. The magic may finally have disappeared from Putin’s rule.
A version of this essay was previously published on the IDU website.