foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--U.S. Congress Readies for Bruising Lame-Duck Session

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s Security Brief , and congratulations on almost surviving U.S. election week .
As the results come in , don ’ t forget to follow FP ’ s election live blog , including deep dives on how the race affects U.S. foreign policy and dispatches from around the world .
What ’ s on tap today : As the United States awaits election results , Washington still has work to do on foreign policy , a potential civil war is brewing in Ethiopia , and Afghan peace talks totter after a deadly terrorist attack .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
As key swing states continue tallying ballots in the United States , Capitol Hill is beginning to consider a lame-duck session that will include top priorities for both parties .
The Trump administration and lawmakers have a few months of work left in 2020—regardless who wins the White House .
Here ’ s a rundown of what we ’ ll be watching in the lame-duck session .
The coronavirus relief bill : Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pledged that Congress would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of the year after pre-election talks fell short .
With Democrats losing ground in the House and failing to secure a Senate majority for now , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are expected to have less leverage over the deal , which had been targeted for $ 2 trillion before Tuesday ’ s vote .
The massive defense policy bill : There is also potential for trouble with the Pentagon ’ s budget .
Both the House and Senate versions of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act include language that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. military installations—which prompted veto threats from President Donald Trump over the summer .
And both chambers must hash out differences over how to counter China .
Republicans have proposed a new fund to boost Pentagon operations in the Asia-Pacific , while the Democrats have preferred to focus on building up alliances in the region .
Cementing diplomatic victories on Israel : The Trump administration still has some diplomacy to do to cement a historic normalization deal between Israel and Sudan .
Administration officials are working with Congress to negotiate outstanding issues on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country climb out of a deep economic hole .
Trump administration officials are also trying to find ways to help the country ’ s fragile transitional government ease political tensions fueled by the news that Sudan may normalize ties with Israel in exchange for economic and aid benefits from Washington .
Locking in Iran sanctions : In the weeks leading up to the election , the Trump administration issued a raft of sanctions against Iran as part of its maximum pressure strategy to get Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions , which have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States pulled out of the Obama-era nuclear deal .
Europe is waiting to see who wins the election to determine whether parts of the deal are salvageable .
European diplomats , speaking on condition of anonymity , said they don ’ t expect a Biden administration to be able to hop back into the deal as it stood in 2016 .
Weeks before Election Day , Trump directed a snapback of U.N. sanctions against Iran , a move that was ignored by European countries , Russia , and China .
International election observers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allegations of voter fraud aren ’ t just causing Twitter to flag his tweets—they ’ re also drawing condemnation from international election observers in the United States .
Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ( OSCE ) said on Wednesday that Trump ’ s remarks were “ baseless ” and that the election had been mostly well-run .
The OSCE sent 100 observers to 30 states at the invitation of the U.S. State Department .
Ethiopia ’ s conflict worsens .
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has promised to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tigray region after the regional government carried out an attack on federal government-controlled bases there this week .
Concerns over a possible civil war in Ethiopia ’ s northernmost region—once dominant in the nation ’ s politics—have deepened since the government in Addis Ababa imposed a six-month state of emergency there .
Attack in Afghanistan .
Afghanistan was rocked by another deadly terrorist attack this week at Kabul University .
The attack was a grim reminder of how the Trump administration ’ s peace talks are teetering on the brink of collapse , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ try to derail inter-Afghan negotiations .
If former Vice President Joe Biden wins the election , he ’ ll inherit an Afghanistan problem that looks much like the one President Barack Obama left behind in 2017 : an unstable Afghan government , no clear path to a military victory , and overly optimistic hopes that peace talks could offer a way for the United States to finally withdraw .
Biden and Trump gear up transition .
The election may not be over yet , but both the Biden and Trump teams are gearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden launching his own transition website last night .
Army appoints new civilian aides .
Secretary of the U.S. Army Ryan McCarty added four new civilian aides during a virtual ceremony last week , the U.S. military service said in a press release .
“ We are going to see disinformation about this election devolve into conspiracy theories that have a long shelf life and continue to be a strong undercurrent of American democracy .
The fact is : we haven ’ t proven disinformation is not a viable political strategy in America.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ disinformation and director of the Atlantic Council ’ s Digital Forensics Research Lab Biden will govern in Trump country .
Biden may expect to take the White House , but Democrats should prepare for four years of governing in Trump ’ s country , Time ’ s Molly Ball writes .
Tom Ridge , the former Secretary of Homeland Security under George W. Bush , said Trump ’ s impulse on his way out “ might be to abuse executive authority , ” and Democrats face a reckoning after underperforming with Black and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Premature celebration .
On Wednesday , Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa issued a preemptive congratulations to Trump on his reelection and lavished praise on the Republican party—before many of the votes were even tallied .
If Biden wins , it may put Slovenia in an awkward diplomatic spot .
A little friendly advice .
From the Globe and Mail : African analysts offer advice on repairing the U.S. political system amid growing calls for reform .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ typos to securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief, and congratulations on almost surviving U.S. election week. As the results come in, don’t forget to follow FP’s election live blog , including deep dives on how the race affects U.S. foreign policy and dispatches from around the world.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief, and congratulations on almost surviving U.S. election week. As the results come in, don’t forget to follow FP’s election live blog, including deep dives on how the race affects U.S. foreign policy and dispatches from around the world.
What’s on tap today: As the United States awaits election results, Washington still has work to do on foreign policy, a potential civil war is brewing in Ethiopia, and Afghan peace talks totter after a deadly terrorist attack.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
Congress Braces for Lame-Duck Scenario
As key swing states continue tallying ballots in the United States, Capitol Hill is beginning to consider a lame-duck session that will include top priorities for both parties. The Trump administration and lawmakers have a few months of work left in 2020—regardless who wins the White House. Here’s a rundown of what we’ll be watching in the lame-duck session.
The coronavirus relief bill: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pledged that Congress would pass another coronavirus relief package by the end of the year after pre-election talks fell short. With Democrats losing ground in the House and failing to secure a Senate majority for now, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are expected to have less leverage over the deal, which had been targeted for $2 trillion before Tuesday’s vote.
The massive defense policy bill: There is also potential for trouble with the Pentagon’s budget. Both the House and Senate versions of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act include language that would strip names of Confederate generals from U.S. military installations—which prompted veto threats from President Donald Trump over the summer.
And both chambers must hash out differences over how to counter China. Republicans have proposed a new fund to boost Pentagon operations in the Asia-Pacific, while the Democrats have preferred to focus on building up alliances in the region.
Cementing diplomatic victories on Israel: The Trump administration still has some diplomacy to do to cement a historic normalization deal between Israel and Sudan. Administration officials are working with Congress to negotiate outstanding issues on renormalizing ties with Sudan and helping the country climb out of a deep economic hole.
Trump administration officials are also trying to find ways to help the country’s fragile transitional government ease political tensions fueled by the news that Sudan may normalize ties with Israel in exchange for economic and aid benefits from Washington.
Locking in Iran sanctions: In the weeks leading up to the election, the Trump administration issued a raft of sanctions against Iran as part of its maximum pressure strategy to get Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, which have become much more overt since the United States pulled out of the Obama-era nuclear deal.
Europe is waiting to see who wins the election to determine whether parts of the deal are salvageable. European diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they don’t expect a Biden administration to be able to hop back into the deal as it stood in 2016. Weeks before Election Day, Trump directed a snapback of U.N. sanctions against Iran, a move that was ignored by European countries, Russia, and China.
What We’re Watching
International election observers slam Trump. Trump’s unfounded allegations of voter fraud aren’t just causing Twitter to flag his tweets—they’re also drawing condemnation from international election observers in the United States. Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said on Wednesday that Trump’s remarks were “baseless” and that the election had been mostly well-run.
The OSCE sent 100 observers to 30 states at the invitation of the U.S. State Department.
Ethiopia’s conflict worsens. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has promised to carry out further military operations in the Tigray region after the regional government carried out an attack on federal government-controlled bases there this week. Concerns over a possible civil war in Ethiopia’s northernmost region—once dominant in the nation’s politics—have deepened since the government in Addis Ababa imposed a six-month state of emergency there.
Attack in Afghanistan. Afghanistan was rocked by another deadly terrorist attack this week at Kabul University. The attack was a grim reminder of how the Trump administration’s peace talks are teetering on the brink of collapse, as Taliban hardliners and other militant groups try to derail inter-Afghan negotiations.
If former Vice President Joe Biden wins the election, he’ll inherit an Afghanistan problem that looks much like the one President Barack Obama left behind in 2017: an unstable Afghan government, no clear path to a military victory, and overly optimistic hopes that peace talks could offer a way for the United States to finally withdraw.
Movers and Shakers
Biden and Trump gear up transition. The election may not be over yet, but both the Biden and Trump teams are gearing up for a possible transition, with Biden launching his own transition website last night.
Army appoints new civilian aides. Secretary of the U.S. Army Ryan McCarty added four new civilian aides during a virtual ceremony last week, the U.S. military service said in a press release.
Quote of the Week
“We are going to see disinformation about this election devolve into conspiracy theories that have a long shelf life and continue to be a strong undercurrent of American democracy. The fact is: we haven’t proven disinformation is not a viable political strategy in America.”
—Graham Brookie, an expert on disinformation and director of the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensics Research Lab
Foreign Policy Recommends
Biden will govern in Trump country. Biden may expect to take the White House, but Democrats should prepare for four years of governing in Trump’s country, Time’s Molly Ball writes. Tom Ridge, the former Secretary of Homeland Security under George W. Bush, said Trump’s impulse on his way out “might be to abuse executive authority,” and Democrats face a reckoning after underperforming with Black and Latino voters in key swing states.
Odds and Ends
Premature celebration. On Wednesday, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa issued a preemptive congratulations to Trump on his reelection and lavished praise on the Republican party—before many of the votes were even tallied. If Biden wins, it may put Slovenia in an awkward diplomatic spot.
A little friendly advice. From the Globe and Mail: African analysts offer advice on repairing the U.S. political system amid growing calls for reform.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Xi Doesn’t Need to Invade Taiwan Right Now

Xi Doesn ’ t Need to Invade Taiwan Right Now This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
As election officials across the United States were tallying votes Tuesday night , a Chinese Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft flew through the southwest quadrant of Taiwan ’ s air defense identification zone ( ADIZ ) .
For the eleventh consecutive day and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scrambled fighters and activated air defenses .
With tensions already running high in the Taiwan Strait , Taipei now faces a new uncertainty : the prospect of a prolonged contest in the United States over the outcome of the American presidential election .
Will Beijing try to take advantage of a distracted , divided America to impose its will on Taiwan ?
There are reasons for concern .
It has been a busy few months for People ’ s Liberation Army pilots stationed along China ’ s southeastern coastline .
PLA aircraft have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Strait—the tacitly accepted air boundary between Taiwan and China—at least three times since August .
In September , a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman openly disavowed that tacit understanding .
“ The so-called ‘ median line , ’ ” he said , “ is non-existent.
” Far more prevalent , however , have been flights in Taiwan ’ s southwestern air defense identification zone , many of them passing much closer to the Pratas ( or Dongsha ) islands , home to a Taiwanese coast guard installation , than to Taiwan proper .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have included bombers , fighters , and various patrol aircraft .
Chinese forces conducted a major exercise in August that may have been a rehearsal for a landing there .
On Oct. 15 , Hong Kong flight authorities ordered a passenger plane heading to the islands to stay out of the surrounding airspace ( the Pratas fall within Hong Kong ’ s flight information region ) .
Taiwanese officials and foreign observers are rightly concerned that China is preparing to make a move on Taiwan—if not an invasion , then perhaps an attempt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A contested election outcome in the United States—Taiwan ’ s ultimate security guarantor—might provide the opportunity President Xi Jinping is looking for to snatch territory and deal a blow to American credibility in Asia .
But it might not .
Chinese leaders have little reason to be confident that election uncertainty in the United States would translate to inaction on the global stage .
If legal battles drag on , President Donald Trump might welcome a confrontation with China , perhaps hopeful that courts would be more sympathetic to an incumbent president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war .
More fundamentally , Xi knows better than anyone that the American president can be unpredictable—recall the cruise missile strike on Syria while the two leaders shared “ the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake.
” In present circumstances , that unpredictability should give Chinese leaders pause .
To leave FP ’ s live election blog and read the rest of this article , click here .

As election officials across the United States were tallying votes Tuesday night, a Chinese Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft flew through the southwest quadrant of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). For the eleventh consecutive day and the 27th time since Oct. 1, Taiwan scrambled fighters and activated air defenses. With tensions already running high in the Taiwan Strait, Taipei now faces a new uncertainty: the prospect of a prolonged contest in the United States over the outcome of the American presidential election. Will Beijing try to take advantage of a distracted, divided America to impose its will on Taiwan?
As election officials across the United States were tallying votes Tuesday night, a Chinese Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft flew through the southwest quadrant of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). For the eleventh consecutive day and the 27th time since Oct. 1, Taiwan scrambled fighters and activated air defenses. With tensions already running high in the Taiwan Strait, Taipei now faces a new uncertainty: the prospect of a prolonged contest in the United States over the outcome of the American presidential election. Will Beijing try to take advantage of a distracted, divided America to impose its will on Taiwan?
There are reasons for concern. It has been a busy few months for People’s Liberation Army pilots stationed along China’s southeastern coastline. PLA aircraft have crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait—the tacitly accepted air boundary between Taiwan and China—at least three times since August. In September, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman openly disavowed that tacit understanding. “The so-called ‘median line,’” he said, “is non-existent.”
Far more prevalent, however, have been flights in Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone, many of them passing much closer to the Pratas (or Dongsha) islands, home to a Taiwanese coast guard installation, than to Taiwan proper. In recent months, flights near the islands have included bombers, fighters, and various patrol aircraft. Chinese forces conducted a major exercise in August that may have been a rehearsal for a landing there. On Oct. 15, Hong Kong flight authorities ordered a passenger plane heading to the islands to stay out of the surrounding airspace (the Pratas fall within Hong Kong’s flight information region).
Taiwanese officials and foreign observers are rightly concerned that China is preparing to make a move on Taiwan—if not an invasion, then perhaps an attempt to seize one of its offshore islands. A contested election outcome in the United States—Taiwan’s ultimate security guarantor—might provide the opportunity President Xi Jinping is looking for to snatch territory and deal a blow to American credibility in Asia.
But it might not. Chinese leaders have little reason to be confident that election uncertainty in the United States would translate to inaction on the global stage. If legal battles drag on, President Donald Trump might welcome a confrontation with China, perhaps hopeful that courts would be more sympathetic to an incumbent president facing the prospect of or prosecuting a war. More fundamentally, Xi knows better than anyone that the American president can be unpredictable—recall the cruise missile strike on Syria while the two leaders shared “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake.” In present circumstances, that unpredictability should give Chinese leaders pause.
To leave FP’s live election blog and read the rest of this article, click here.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Some in Japan Are Already Missing Trump

Some in Japan Are Already Missing Trump

Some in Japan Are Already Missing Trump This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Even as the U.S. presidential race drags on , at least some Japanese are already missing Donald Trump , whose reelection chances appear to be slipping as votes continue to be counted on Thursday .
“ From FDR to Truman to Obama , nothing great happens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” the conservative commentator Haruo Kitamura said on Japanese television .
“ At least Trump brought up the North Korean abductees at the U.N. , ” he added , touching on the long-standing but largely fruitless campaign by Japan to get a clear accounting of Japanese kidnapped by North Korean agents in the 1970s and ’ 80s .
“ We will be in big trouble when Biden wins , because he will suck up to China , ” the well-known journalist Taro Kimura added .
Others have pointed out that U.S .
Ambassador @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under President Barack Obama , had tweeted against a controversial dolphin killing that takes place off the waters of a small Japanese town each year .
Her high-level protest , raising a touchy subject , earned a rebuke from then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga , who is now the country ’ s prime minister .
The pro-Trump mood is definitely not universal .
At the Japanese foreign ministry , where the North American bureau had been known for its high stress and long hours , there is likely to be some relief that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomatic courtesies may come back in a more organized State Department under a Joe Biden presidency .
Overall public opinion will also not be sorry to see Trump leave .
A survey conducted in February and March by the national broadcaster NHK found that 57 percent of respondents thought that Trump ’ s reelection would be negative for Japan .
Only 10 percent thought it would be positive .
And yes , polls in Japan are considered accurate .

Even as the U.S. presidential race drags on, at least some Japanese are already missing Donald Trump, whose reelection chances appear to be slipping as votes continue to be counted on Thursday.
Even as the U.S. presidential race drags on, at least some Japanese are already missing Donald Trump, whose reelection chances appear to be slipping as votes continue to be counted on Thursday.
“From FDR to Truman to Obama, nothing great happens to Japan under a Democratic president,” the conservative commentator Haruo Kitamura said on Japanese television. “At least Trump brought up the North Korean abductees at the U.N.,” he added, touching on the long-standing but largely fruitless campaign by Japan to get a clear accounting of Japanese kidnapped by North Korean agents in the 1970s and ’80s.
“We will be in big trouble when Biden wins, because he will suck up to China,” the well-known journalist Taro Kimura added.
Others have pointed out that U.S. Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy, who served under President Barack Obama, had tweeted against a controversial dolphin killing that takes place off the waters of a small Japanese town each year. Her high-level protest, raising a touchy subject, earned a rebuke from then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who is now the country’s prime minister.
The pro-Trump mood is definitely not universal. At the Japanese foreign ministry, where the North American bureau had been known for its high stress and long hours, there is likely to be some relief that the former niceties of consultative policymaking and diplomatic courtesies may come back in a more organized State Department under a Joe Biden presidency.
Overall public opinion will also not be sorry to see Trump leave. A survey conducted in February and March by the national broadcaster NHK found that 57 percent of respondents thought that Trump’s reelection would be negative for Japan. Only 10 percent thought it would be positive. And yes, polls in Japan are considered accurate.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-06--Will Trump Accept Defeat?

Will Trump Accept Defeat?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : the 2020 U.S. presidential election edges toward a Biden victory , Ethiopian military leaders declare war in the country ’ s north , and the Pentagon denies reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is leaving .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Seeming to acknowledge this likelihood in a White House press briefing Thursday , Trump appeared downbeat .
Instead of his usual off-the-cuff bravado , Trump read methodically from notes , running through a list of alleged inaccuracies and problems in various states ; several news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ false and unsubstantiated statements .
Trying to thread the needle between states where he wants vote counting to continue and states where he demands a halt , Trump misleadingly said , “ If you count the legal votes , I easily win.
” Court moot .
So far the president ’ s legal arguments have mostly fallen flat with judges in Nevada , Michigan , Georgia , and Pennsylvania .
In the early hours of this morning , Trump tweeted an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene .
On Thursday FP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experts who say that Trump ’ s legal challenges are merely “ tinkering on the edges.
” What if it ’ s Biden ?
A new president would mean a new U.S. foreign policy , but how much will Joe Biden change about the U.S. approach to the world ?
Writing in September , James Traub looked at how Joe Biden sees the world , and the kind of moves he is expected to make , should he take office next January .
Traub finds Biden “ far more hopeful about the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places in which its power is often exercised.
” Follow along with FP .
No matter which way today goes , FP will continue to bring you live analysis and argument from around the world .
Follow along with our live blog here .
FP is will be hosting a conference call at 11 a.m .
ET today to discuss the implications of the U.S. election .
Register here .
Ethiopia at war .
Ethiopia ’ s Deputy Army Chief Birhanu Jula has said the country has “ entered into a war it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country ’ s northern Tigray region as fighting enters its third day .
Tigray ’ s president , Debretsion Gebremichael , speaking at a Thursday press conference , has also described the conflict as “ clearly a war , an invasion … This is a war we ’ re conducting to preserve our existence , ” he added .
Internet and phone lines have been cut in Tigray , making it difficult to estimate a death toll in the conflict so far .
Speaking to AFP , an African Union official said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” in order to find a solution to the crisis .
Thaci to The Hague .
Kosovo President Hashim Thaci has resigned in order to face war crimes and crimes against humanity charges at a special court in The Hague .
The crimes alleged by prosecutors include the kidnapping , torture , and murder of civilians during Thaci ’ s leadership of the Kosovo Liberation Army guerilla group during the Kosovo conflict in the late 1990s .
Thaci has denied any wrongdoing .
Esper out ?
U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent news reports .
On Thursday , NBC broke the news that Esper had prepared a resignation letter and CNN reported that Esper may be fired even if Trump ultimately loses to Biden .
Esper is reported to be working with members of Congress to draft legislation to rename military bases currently named for Confederate generals—an issue that has angered Trump in the past .
Chief Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman tweeted Thursday that “ Secretary of Defense Esper has no plans to resign , nor has he been asked to submit a letter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Emmanuel Macron has seized on recent terror attacks in Nice and Vienna to call for a “ deep overhaul ” of the European Schengen free travel zone , saying it is too vulnerable to illegal immigration .
Speaking at the France-Spain border on Thursday , Macron floated the idea of a continental border control agency , as well as increased information sharing between nations on individuals crossing borders .
Macron said he would present his proposals at the next EU summit , scheduled for December .
America ’ s foes rejoice .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a round of schadenfreude over the U.S. election .
Speaking in Venezuela on Thursday , Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the United States and its allies “ can ’ t control what ’ s happening in the world .
They ’ ve lost control.
” In recent days , Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has remarked sarcastically on the “ surprising electoral process ” of the United States , trumpeting that in recent local elections in Venezuela , all votes had been tallied by 11 p.m. on election day .
Hanegbi warns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tzachi Hanegbi has warned of war between Israel and Iran should Joe Biden win the U.S. presidency .
Speaking to Israeli television , Hanegbi—a member of the right-wing Likud party—criticized Biden ’ s stated goal of returning the United States to the Iran nuclear deal .
“ If Biden stays with that policy , there will , in the end , be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran , ” Hanegbi said .
FP Conference Call—Join editor in chief Jonathan Tepperman and guests Timothy Naftali , CNN presidential historian , and Rana @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Financial Times , today , Friday , at 11 a.m. EST for a wide-ranging discussion on the domestic policy and economic implications of the U.S. presidential election .
Register here .
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Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the 2020 U.S. presidential election edges toward a Biden victory, Ethiopian military leaders declare war in the country’s north, and the Pentagon denies reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is leaving.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the 2020 U.S. presidential election edges toward a Biden victory, Ethiopian military leaders declare war in the country’s north, and the Pentagon denies reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is leaving.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Biden Closes in On Victory in Final Vote Tally Vote counting continues this morning in the key states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada as Joe Biden appears closer than ever to an electoral college victory. Early on Friday morning, Biden pulled ahead of Trump in Georgia where he led by just over 900 votes at the time of writing though several thousand votes remain uncounted. Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral college votes could deal the final blow to U.S. President Donald Trump’s hopes for reelection; Biden trails by just 18,000 votes there and many remain to be counted in Democratic strongholds.
Seeming to acknowledge this likelihood in a White House press briefing Thursday, Trump appeared downbeat. Instead of his usual off-the-cuff bravado, Trump read methodically from notes, running through a list of alleged inaccuracies and problems in various states; several news networks interrupted his speech to point out false and unsubstantiated statements. Trying to thread the needle between states where he wants vote counting to continue and states where he demands a halt, Trump misleadingly said,“If you count the legal votes, I easily win.”
Court moot. So far the president’s legal arguments have mostly fallen flat with judges in Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In the early hours of this morning, Trump tweeted an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene. On Thursday FP’s Amy Mackinnon spoke with legal experts who say that Trump’s legal challenges are merely “tinkering on the edges.”
What if it’s Biden? A new president would mean a new U.S. foreign policy, but how much will Joe Biden change about the U.S. approach to the world? Writing in September, James Traub looked at how Joe Biden sees the world, and the kind of moves he is expected to make, should he take office next January. Traub finds Biden “far more hopeful about the United States than he is about the remote places in which its power is often exercised.”
Follow along with FP. No matter which way today goes, FP will continue to bring you live analysis and argument from around the world. Follow along with our live blog here. FP is will be hosting a conference call at 11 a.m. ET today to discuss the implications of the U.S. election. Register here.
What We’re Following Today
Ethiopia at war. Ethiopia’s Deputy Army Chief Birhanu Jula has said the country has “entered into a war it didn’t anticipate” in the country’s northern Tigray region as fighting enters its third day. Tigray’s president, Debretsion Gebremichael, speaking at a Thursday press conference, has also described the conflict as “clearly a war, an invasion … This is a war we’re conducting to preserve our existence,” he added.
Internet and phone lines have been cut in Tigray, making it difficult to estimate a death toll in the conflict so far. Speaking to AFP, an African Union official said the organization was engaged in “shuttle diplomacy” in order to find a solution to the crisis.
Thaci to The Hague. Kosovo President Hashim Thaci has resigned in order to face war crimes and crimes against humanity charges at a special court in The Hague. The crimes alleged by prosecutors include the kidnapping, torture, and murder of civilians during Thaci’s leadership of the Kosovo Liberation Army guerilla group during the Kosovo conflict in the late 1990s. Thaci has denied any wrongdoing.
Esper out? U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper could soon be leaving his post according to recent news reports. On Thursday, NBC broke the news that Esper had prepared a resignation letter and CNN reported that Esper may be fired even if Trump ultimately loses to Biden. Esper is reported to be working with members of Congress to draft legislation to rename military bases currently named for Confederate generals—an issue that has angered Trump in the past. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman tweeted Thursday that “Secretary of Defense Esper has no plans to resign, nor has he been asked to submit a letter of resignation.”
Macron wants tighter borders. Emmanuel Macron has seized on recent terror attacks in Nice and Vienna to call for a “deep overhaul” of the European Schengen free travel zone, saying it is too vulnerable to illegal immigration. Speaking at the France-Spain border on Thursday, Macron floated the idea of a continental border control agency, as well as increased information sharing between nations on individuals crossing borders. Macron said he would present his proposals at the next EU summit, scheduled for December.
America’s foes rejoice. Countries under U.S. sanctions are indulging in a round of schadenfreude over the U.S. election. Speaking in Venezuela on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the United States and its allies “can’t control what’s happening in the world. They’ve lost control.” In recent days, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has remarked sarcastically on the “surprising electoral process” of the United States, trumpeting that in recent local elections in Venezuela, all votes had been tallied by 11 p.m. on election day.
Keep an Eye On Belarus nuclear plant opens. The first nuclear plant in Belarus began operations on Thursday amid objections from neighboring Lithuania, whose citizens live within roughly 12 miles of the facility. The plant, built by Russian state company Rosatom, will eventually power a third of Belarus according to a statement from its energy ministry. Lithuania’s complaints about problems with the plant’s construction have been waved off by Russia, who say it meets the highest international standards. Lithuania has offered free potassium iodide tablets—which can protect the thyroid gland from radioactive iodine released during nuclear accidents—to residents near the plant in the event of a nuclear meltdown.
Hanegbi warns of Israel-Iran conflict. Israeli Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi has warned of war between Israel and Iran should Joe Biden win the U.S. presidency. Speaking to Israeli television, Hanegbi—a member of the right-wing Likud party—criticized Biden’s stated goal of returning the United States to the Iran nuclear deal. “If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran,” Hanegbi said.
FP Conference Call—Join editor in chief Jonathan Tepperman and guests Timothy Naftali, CNN presidential historian, and Rana Foroohar, global business columnist at the Financial Times, today, Friday, at 11 a.m. EST for a wide-ranging discussion on the domestic policy and economic implications of the U.S. presidential election. Register here.
Odds and Ends A time capsule buried in the ice at the north pole in 2018 has washed up on the northwest coast of Ireland after just two years. The object, which included mementos and letters from a Russian tourist expedition, was discovered by surfers who had initially mistaken it for a bomb or burial urn. The time capsule’s 2,300 mile journey was likely spurred by rapidly melting sea ice: In 2018, the year the capsule was buried, Arctic sea ice was at the sixth lowest extent on record.
That’s it for today.
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foreignpolicy--2020-11-07--Executive Power After Trump

Executive Power After Trump

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
If Joe Biden takes office as U.S. president in January 2021 , he may well be presiding over a divided government .
Although the situation is not yet certain , Republicans seem on track to maintain control of the U.S. Senate by a razor-thin margin .
If they do—and if Senate Majority Leader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through much of the administration of former President Barack Obama—it will most likely mean a hold on the Democrats ’ legislative agenda , as well as persistent challenges to a Biden administration ’ s ability to govern effectively .
So hamstrung , Biden might turn to executive orders and other executive measures , raising new questions about a perennial issue : the proper scope of executive power .
A bit of hypocrisy around questions of executive power is a well-worn American tradition .
Both parties tend to criticize it when out of power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways to wield it once they take the White House .
This reflects the simple truth that the president does have broad executive authority in practical terms , especially when it comes to foreign affairs and national security .
Such power isn ’ t necessarily hard-wired into the office by the Constitution .
Rather , it most often reflects the fact that , over the years , Congress has delegated much of its relevant authority to the president , either expressly through statutes or implicitly through acquiescence to executive initiative .
The courts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these authorities , at least so long as those leaders don ’ t transcend any clear limits put in place by Congress .
In turn , successive administrations have had broad leeway to implement their domestic- and foreign-policy agendas , at least so long as they don ’ t push hard enough to trigger a congressional backlash .
During its tenure , the Obama administration used executive authority to great effect on a number of fronts .
Major diplomatic accomplishments such as the Paris Agreement and Iran nuclear deal blended political commitments and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoided the need for the Republican-controlled Senate to sign off .
Similar creative lawyering provided a legal justification for military action in Iraq , Libya , Syria , and elsewhere , even where Congress declined to provide express authorization .
And like his predecessors , Obama used his expansive statutory authority to impose an array of sanctions around the world through emergency declarations .
The trade-off , of course , was that reliance on executive authority alone made these sorts of policies only as durable as the presidential administration that supported them—a consequence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s administration ’ s subsequent reversal of many of Obama ’ s most valued initiatives .
After four years of Trump , Biden would have reason to think about some of executive authorities a bit differently .
In the face of an uncooperative Senate , a potential Biden administration may be tempted to look to Obama ’ s uses of executive authority as a blueprint for pursuing its own foreign-policy goals .
But after four years of Trump , Biden would have reason to think about some of these authorities a bit differently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outer limits of his executive authority to an extent few prior presidents have matched .
While Obama largely sought to maintain the internationalist foreign policy that has been the subject of a bipartisan consensus for most of the post-World War II era—and typically provided a credible legal case for his actions—Trump decidedly did not .
In areas ranging from immigration to arms sales to trade to treaty withdrawal , Trump used aggressive interpretations of statutes and his own constitutional authority to disrupt core tenets of the United States ’ position in the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often obfuscated the questionable legal bases for the administration ’ s actions , even as they engaged in legal brinkmanship with the courts and other institutions .
And objections in Congress—including in the president ’ s own party—never posed a serious threat , thanks to Trump ’ s veto power and strong support from most of the Republican Party .
As a result , the only meaningful limit on many of Trump ’ s most disruptive policies was the election he now looks set to lose .
If not for that , no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led—an exit from NATO , the removal of troops from Europe , or even a shooting war with Iran .
Come January , whether Republicans control the Senate or not , an incoming Biden administration will be in a good position to reverse most of the Trump administration ’ s signature policies through executive action .
But in many ways , the damage has already been done .
The United States ’ ability to make durable policy commitments across presidential administrations—a keystone of the post-World War II international order—has been cast into serious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much reason to think that doubt is misplaced , as the mixed results of the 2020 election strongly suggest that Trumpism is here to stay even if Trump loses .
At some point , a President Biden may well be succeeded by another whose combination of nativism and populism is hostile to the United States ’ role in the international system .
If the status quo of executive power remains in place , that future president will be just as equipped to disrupt that system , perhaps irreparably .
There are ways to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set clear statutory limits on the president ’ s authority to withdraw from major treaties , initiate large-scale wars , and cut off trade relationships , and it can set up other guardrails that prevent future presidents from steering the United States too far off the road .
An engaged and supportive Biden administration could help ensure such limits do not encroach too far on the substantial discretion that presidents genuinely need to effectively manage U.S. foreign policy .
While the Biden campaign generally focused on improving transparency around executive power , other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ structural reforms , suggesting an appetite for them within Biden ’ s coalition .
At times , Republicans too have argued for similar reforms .
The political dynamics of divided government , however , are likely to be a major obstacle to reform .
A Republican-controlled Senate aimed at obstructing a Biden administration would substantially raise the cost of pursuing any sort of action through Congress .
Meanwhile , the Biden administration would likely have a long list of nominees , legislative objectives , and other items it needs to secure before turning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it a lower ( or at least later ) priority .
And Democratic officials who feel under siege from congressional Republicans may understandably hesitate to give away any more power .
But these dynamics aren ’ t inevitable .
If president , Biden , for example , could ultimately prove more successful at persuading McConnell to negotiate—or McConnell may be less confident that complete obstruction will yield positive political dividends—than during the Obama administration .
Alternatively , a Biden administration and congressional Democrats could simply decide that reforming the executive branch—not just in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on ethical and good governance issues—warrants top billing after Trump and is worth the political time and effort likely to be required .
Regardless , it is unlikely that embracing executive power would be as easy a choice for a President Biden as it was for his predecessors .
True , he could use it to reverse some of Trump ’ s most problematic policies while advancing some of his own , and there is little reason to think he should hesitate so long as he acts in good faith with the law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of leaving the status quo in place are far less hypothetical than they may once have seemed .
And that may demand a different approach if Biden is intent on leaving the country on more solid ground than he found it .

When Joe Biden takes office as U.S. president in January 2021, he may well be presiding over a divided government. Although the situation is not yet certain, Republicans seem on track to maintain control of the U.S. Senate by a razor-thin margin. If they do—and if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell continues the tack he pursued through much of the administration of former President Barack Obama—it will most likely mean a hold on the Democrats’ legislative agenda, as well as persistent challenges to the Biden administration’s ability to govern effectively. So hamstrung, Biden might turn to executive orders and other executive measures, raising new questions about a perennial issue: the proper scope of executive power.
When Joe Biden takes office as U.S. president in January 2021, he may well be presiding over a divided government. Although the situation is not yet certain, Republicans seem on track to maintain control of the U.S. Senate by a razor-thin margin. If they do—and if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell continues the tack he pursued through much of the administration of former President Barack Obama—it will most likely mean a hold on the Democrats’ legislative agenda, as well as persistent challenges to the Biden administration’s ability to govern effectively. So hamstrung, Biden might turn to executive orders and other executive measures, raising new questions about a perennial issue: the proper scope of executive power.
A bit of hypocrisy around questions of executive power is a well-worn American tradition. Both parties tend to criticize it when out of power, only to find new and creative ways to wield it once they take the White House. This reflects the simple truth that the president does have broad executive authority in practical terms, especially when it comes to foreign affairs and national security. Such power isn’t necessarily hard-wired into the office by the Constitution. Rather, it most often reflects the fact that, over the years, Congress has delegated much of its relevant authority to the president, either expressly through statutes or implicitly through acquiescence to executive initiative. The courts have generally resisted second-guessing how presidents use these authorities, at least so long as those leaders don’t transcend any clear limits put in place by Congress. In turn, successive administrations have had broad leeway to implement their domestic- and foreign-policy agendas, at least so long as they don’t push hard enough to trigger a congressional backlash.
During its tenure, the Obama administration used executive authority to great effect on a number of fronts. Major diplomatic accomplishments such as the Paris Agreement and Iran nuclear deal blended political commitments and executive agreements in a manner that largely avoided the need for the Republican-controlled Senate to sign off. Similar creative lawyering provided a legal justification for military action in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and elsewhere, even where Congress declined to provide express authorization. And like his predecessors, Obama used his expansive statutory authority to impose an array of sanctions around the world through emergency declarations.
The trade-off, of course, was that reliance on executive authority alone made these sorts of policies only as durable as the presidential administration that supported them—a consequence made clear by President Donald Trump’s administration’s subsequent reversal of many of Obama’s most valued initiatives.
After four years of Trump, Biden has reason to think about some of executive authorities a bit differently.
In the face of an uncooperative Senate, the Biden administration may be tempted to look to Obama’s uses of executive authority as a blueprint for pursuing its own foreign-policy goals. But after four years of Trump, Biden has reason to think about some of these authorities a bit differently.
As president, Trump pushed the outer limits of his executive authority to an extent few prior presidents have matched. While Obama largely sought to maintain the internationalist foreign policy that has been the subject of a bipartisan consensus for most of the post-World War II era—and typically provided a credible legal case for his actions—Trump decidedly did not. In areas ranging from immigration to arms sales to trade to treaty withdrawal, Trump used aggressive interpretations of statutes and his own constitutional authority to disrupt core tenets of the United States’ position in the world and the broader international system. Officials often obfuscated the questionable legal bases for the administration’s actions, even as they engaged in legal brinkmanship with the courts and other institutions. And objections in Congress—including in the president’s own party—never posed a serious threat, thanks to Trump’s veto power and strong support from most of the Republican Party.
As a result, the only meaningful limit on many of Trump’s most disruptive policies was the election he has now lost. If not for that, no one knows where his policies might have led—an exit from NATO, the removal of troops from Europe, or even a shooting war with Iran.
Come January, whether Republicans control the Senate or not, the incoming Biden administration will be in a good position to reverse most of the Trump administration’s signature policies through executive action. But in many ways, the damage has already been done. The United States’ ability to make durable policy commitments across presidential administrations—a keystone of the post-World War II international order—has been cast into serious doubt. And there’s not much reason to think that doubt is misplaced, as the results of the 2020 election strongly suggest that Trumpism is here to stay even though Trump lost. At some point, Biden may well be succeeded by another whose combination of nativism and populism is hostile to the United States’ role in the international system. If the status quo of executive power remains in place, that future president will be just as equipped to disrupt that system, perhaps irreparably.
There are ways to protect against this outcome. Congress can set clear statutory limits on the president’s authority to withdraw from major treaties, initiate large-scale wars, and cut off trade relationships, and it can set up other guardrails that prevent future presidents from steering the United States too far off the road. An engaged and supportive Biden administration could help ensure such limits do not encroach too far on the substantial discretion that presidents genuinely need to effectively manage U.S. foreign policy. While the Biden campaign generally focused on improving transparency around executive power, other Democratic presidential candidates voiced support for more structural reforms, suggesting an appetite for them within Biden’s coalition. At times, Republicans too have argued for similar reforms.
The political dynamics of divided government, however, are likely to be a major obstacle to reform. A Republican-controlled Senate aimed at obstructing the Biden administration would substantially raise the cost of pursuing any sort of action through Congress. Meanwhile, the Biden administration will have a long list of nominees, legislative objectives, and other items it needs to secure before turning to any such reform package, making it a lower (or at least later) priority. And Democratic officials who feel under siege from congressional Republicans may understandably hesitate to give away any more power.
But these dynamics aren’t inevitable. As president, Biden, for example, could ultimately prove more successful at persuading McConnell to negotiate—or McConnell may be less confident that complete obstruction will yield positive political dividends—than during the Obama administration. Alternatively, the Biden administration and congressional Democrats could simply decide that reforming the executive branch—not just in regard to executive power, but also on ethical and good governance issues—warrants top billing after Trump and is worth the political time and effort likely to be required.
Regardless, it is unlikely that embracing executive power would be as easy a choice for Biden as it was for his predecessors. True, he could use it to reverse some of Trump’s most problematic policies while advancing some of his own, and there is little reason to think he should hesitate so long as he acts in good faith with the law. But after Trump, the costs of leaving the status quo in place are far less hypothetical than they may once have seemed. And that may demand a different approach if Biden is intent on leaving the country on more solid ground than he found it.
Update, Nov. 7, 2020: This article was updated after Democratic nominee Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-06--Why Trump’s Elections Challenges Are Nothing Like Bush v. Gore

Why Trump ’ s Elections Challenges Are Nothing Like Bush v. Gore This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
The Trump campaign ’ s legal challenges in Pennsylvania over ballot counting and mail-in deadlines have evoked memories of the Supreme Court case that decided the 2000 presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore .
President Donald Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their Pennsylvania lawsuit , which seeks to prevent voters from fixing problems with their absentee ballots , arguing that if only some counties were doing this , it violates the 14th Amendment ’ s Equal Protection Clause .
But there ’ s little chance that this race will end up like 2000 , when the winning candidate wasn ’ t announced until Dec. 12 .
For one thing , legal experts doubt that the Trump team ’ s claims have much merit .
Also , Trump ’ s legal team looks nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Baker , the architect of Bush ’ s legal strategy .
According to a new biography on Baker , The Man Who Ran Washington by the journalists Peter Baker and Susan Glasser , his reputation was so formidable that Gore ’ s supporters “ knew they would lose the moment they heard of his selection.
” Bush ’ s legal team included three future Supreme Court justices—John Roberts , Brett Kavanaugh , and Amy Coney Barrett—as well as Ted Cruz , now a U.S. senator , and John Bolton , Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has struggled to attract such an all-star cast .
The New York Times reported that Trump has leaned on his family and on former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as he seeks to ratchet up his legal strategy , with son-in-law Jared Kushner casting about on Wednesday to find a “ James Baker-like ” figure to lead their efforts .
Trump ’ s current lineup of lawyers includes his personal lawyers , Giuliani and Jay Sekulow ; former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi ; and Sidney Powell , who served as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michael Flynn .
The firebrand former acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has become the public face of the campaign ’ s legal challenges in Nevada , although he is not a lawyer .
The Biden campaign , in contrast , assembled a team of hundreds of lawyers ahead of the election , anticipating that Trump would raise legal issues .
Biden ’ s operation is overseen by his campaign ’ s general counsel , Dana Remus , and by Bob Bauer , a former White House counsel in the Obama administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald B. Verrilli Jr. and Walter Dellinger , who are both former solicitors general , as well as Eric Holder , who served as Barack Obama ’ s attorney general .

The Trump campaign’s legal challenges in Pennsylvania over ballot counting and mail-in deadlines have evoked memories of the Supreme Court case that decided the 2000 presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore. President Donald Trump’s own lawyers have cited the case in their Pennsylvania lawsuit , which seeks to prevent voters from fixing problems with their absentee ballots, arguing that if only some counties were doing this, it violates the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause.
The Trump campaign’s legal challenges in Pennsylvania over ballot counting and mail-in deadlines have evoked memories of the Supreme Court case that decided the 2000 presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore. President Donald Trump’s own lawyers have cited the case in their Pennsylvania lawsuit, which seeks to prevent voters from fixing problems with their absentee ballots, arguing that if only some counties were doing this, it violates the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause.
But there’s little chance that this race will end up like 2000, when the winning candidate wasn’t announced until Dec. 12. For one thing, legal experts doubt that the Trump team’s claims have much merit. Also, Trump’s legal team looks nothing like the formidable group assembled by James Baker, the architect of Bush’s legal strategy. According to a new biography on Baker, The Man Who Ran Washington by the journalists Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, his reputation was so formidable that Gore’s supporters “knew they would lose the moment they heard of his selection.”
Bush’s legal team included three future Supreme Court justices—John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett—as well as Ted Cruz, now a U.S. senator, and John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor.
But Trump has struggled to attract such an all-star cast. The New York Times reported that Trump has leaned on his family and on former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as he seeks to ratchet up his legal strategy, with son-in-law Jared Kushner casting about on Wednesday to find a “James Baker-like” figure to lead their efforts.
Trump’s current lineup of lawyers includes his personal lawyers, Giuliani and Jay Sekulow; former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi; and Sidney Powell, who served as a lawyer for former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. The firebrand former acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has become the public face of the campaign’s legal challenges in Nevada, although he is not a lawyer.
The Biden campaign, in contrast, assembled a team of hundreds of lawyers ahead of the election, anticipating that Trump would raise legal issues. Biden’s operation is overseen by his campaign’s general counsel, Dana Remus, and by Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel in the Obama administration. Other lawyers on the team include Donald B. Verrilli Jr. and Walter Dellinger, who are both former solicitors general, as well as Eric Holder, who served as Barack Obama’s attorney general.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-06--With Lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia, Biden Edges Closer to Victory

With Lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia , Biden Edges Closer to Victory This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
With the vote counting in five key swing states around the country entering its final stage , Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden appears to be in a strong position to win the presidency—though it could be a day or more until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pulled ahead on Friday in Pennsylvania , where a victory would vault him over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House .
He also has a narrow lead in Georgia , a state no Democratic presidential candidate has won in nearly 30 years , though state election officials said Friday that the race would go to a recount .
If Biden ’ s leads hold up in the four hotly contested states where he has a slight edge—including Arizona and Nevada—as votes continue to be counted , he could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a nationwide advantage of more than 4 million votes .
But more than 100,000 provisional ballots in Pennsylvania that appeared to be breaking toward President Donald Trump—leaving him a small chance of victory there—have prevented news outlets from calling the race .
Trump , after a caustic speech on Thursday night in which he falsely accused Democrats of committing massive voter fraud with mail-in ballots to steal the election , was roundly condemned by members of Congress—even some from his own party—for undermining the sanctity of the elections .
Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ morning insisting there was still a path to reelection .
“ This election is not over .
The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final , ” said Matt Morgan , the Trump campaign ’ s general counsel .
He cited allegations of ballots being improperly harvested in the remaining swing states , but he did not provide evidence for these claims .
“ [ O ] nce the election is final , President Trump will be re-elected , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say whether he would peacefully transfer power if defeated .
But the Biden campaign said there was no way Trump could cling to power once the results were certified .
“ [ T ] he United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House , ” campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said on Friday .
Since election night on Tuesday , Trump has repeatedly called for election officials to stop counting ballots , but legal challenges in several swing states appear to have fallen flat .
Some are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allies predicted he ’ ll continue to reject the outcome of the race—even if the major news networks call the election for Biden .
NBC ’ s Hallie Jackson reported on Friday that Trump was in a “ fighting mood ” and would take that fight all the way to the Supreme Court , though it ’ s unclear if he will have any legal basis for a case to be heard by the high court .
Trump ’ s unwillingness to concede will make the transition to Inauguration Day in January exceedingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead with firing top administration officials including FBI Director Christopher Wray , Defense Secretary Mark Esper , and CIA Director Gina Haspel , who are not seen as sufficiently loyal to the president .
Esper , whose relationship with Trump has chilled in recent months , has reportedly already drafted his resignation letter in anticipation of being asked to leave the Pentagon .
Trump could also issue a flurry of executive orders to try to cement his legacy—though those could be overturned by a Biden administration .
Biden trailed in Pennsylvania in most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advantage in the state became apparent when mail-in ballots from Philadelphia and other urban areas were finally counted .
Pennsylvania had not held mail-in voting at this scale prior to the coronavirus pandemic and was not legally allowed to begin counting the early votes until Election Day .
Even before the results were called , Biden and his vice presidential running mate Kamala Harris already began to move toward a presidential transition , taking briefings on Thursday , starting a transition website , and getting a “ national defense airspace ” put over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delaware , to restrict flights .

With the vote counting in five key swing states around the country entering its final stage, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden appears to be in a strong position to win the presidency—though it could be a day or more until a final call is made.
With the vote counting in five key swing states around the country entering its final stage, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden appears to be in a strong position to win the presidency—though it could be a day or more until a final call is made.
Biden pulled ahead on Friday in Pennsylvania, where a victory would vault him over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. He also has a narrow lead in Georgia, a state no Democratic presidential candidate has won in nearly 30 years, though state election officials said Friday that the race would go to a recount.
If Biden’s leads hold up in the four hotly contested states where he has a slight edge—including Arizona and Nevada—as votes continue to be counted, he could ultimately rack up 306 electoral votes, and a nationwide advantage of more than 4 million votes. But more than 100,000 provisional ballots in Pennsylvania that appeared to be breaking toward President Donald Trump—leaving him a small chance of victory there—have prevented news outlets from calling the race.
Trump, after a caustic speech on Thursday night in which he falsely accused Democrats of committing massive voter fraud with mail-in ballots to steal the election, was roundly condemned by members of Congress—even some from his own party—for undermining the sanctity of the elections.
Trump’s campaign issued a defiant statement on Friday morning insisting there was still a path to reelection. “This election is not over. The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final,” said Matt Morgan, the Trump campaign’s general counsel. He cited allegations of ballots being improperly harvested in the remaining swing states, but he did not provide evidence for these claims. “[O]nce the election is final, President Trump will be re-elected,” he said.
Trump has repeatedly declined to say whether he would peacefully transfer power if defeated. But the Biden campaign said there was no way Trump could cling to power once the results were certified. “[T]he United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House,” campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said on Friday.
Since election night on Tuesday, Trump has repeatedly called for election officials to stop counting ballots, but legal challenges in several swing states appear to have fallen flat. Some are still ongoing. Trump’s closest allies predicted he’ll continue to reject the outcome of the race—even if the major news networks call the election for Biden. NBC’s Hallie Jackson reported on Friday that Trump was in a “fighting mood” and would take that fight all the way to the Supreme Court, though it’s unclear if he will have any legal basis for a case to be heard by the high court.
Trump’s unwillingness to concede will make the transition to Inauguration Day in January exceedingly challenging. He reportedly wants to move ahead with firing top administration officials including FBI Director Christopher Wray, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and CIA Director Gina Haspel, who are not seen as sufficiently loyal to the president. Esper, whose relationship with Trump has chilled in recent months, has reportedly already drafted his resignation letter in anticipation of being asked to leave the Pentagon. Trump could also issue a flurry of executive orders to try to cement his legacy—though those could be overturned by a Biden administration.
Biden trailed in Pennsylvania in most early returns after Tuesday, but his advantage in the state became apparent when mail-in ballots from Philadelphia and other urban areas were finally counted. Pennsylvania had not held mail-in voting at this scale prior to the coronavirus pandemic and was not legally allowed to begin counting the early votes until Election Day.
Even before the results were called, Biden and his vice presidential running mate Kamala Harris already began to move toward a presidential transition, taking briefings on Thursday, starting a transition website, and getting a “national defense airspace” put over Biden’s home in Wilmington, Delaware, to restrict flights.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-06--Biden May Win, but the Left Is Still Fighting for Influence

Biden May Win , but the Left Is Still Fighting for Influence As former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden edged closer to winning the presidency , Democratic lawmakers descended into a fresh round of recriminations , with some establishment Democrats charging that the party ’ s swerve to the left helped fuel a surprisingly strong showing by President Donald Trump that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate and forestall an expansion of the Democratic majority in the House .
Democrats still have a slim chance of gaining control of the Senate in a pair of Georgia runoffs in January @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for two years—Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has maintained his grip on the upper chamber .
That will make it more difficult for a Biden administration to satisfy progressive demands for cabinet picks , pass progressive legislation , or impose new checks on the power of the presidency .
The mixed outcome of the race threatens to diminish the influence of Sen. Bernie Sanders and other members of the party ’ s left flank , and may well ease pressure on Biden to offer progressives key positions in a new administration , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It also raised concerns among progressives that Biden will seek to forge a bipartisan governing consensus with McConnell , his former Senate colleague , at the expense of progressives who helped energize the party ’ s more liberal base that helped deliver Biden the presidency .
Democrats fear Republicans will threaten to block the appointment of progressives in a Biden administration , prompting the new president to bypass worthy candidates for government office .
Of course , the Trump administration simply ignored Congress and placed acting officials in cabinet roles for extended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next administration .
“ Look , at the end of the day , Joe Biden received more votes than anyone in the history of this country .
President Trump , with a smaller victory , installed radically conservative folks in the administration , ” said Stephen Miles , the executive director of the progressive advocacy group Win Without War .
“ The last four years have been a master class in how to staff your administration even with an uncooperative Senate.
” Several Democratic Senate aides conceded that it would be difficult for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senior administration posts , including the secretary of state position , for which some on the left had hoped that a progressive leader like Sen. Chris Murphy would be a front-runner .
This week , Murphy predicted that “ Mitch McConnell will force Joe Biden to negotiate every single cabinet secretary , every single district court judge , every single U.S. attorney with him , ” according to Politico .
“ My guess is we ’ ll have a constitutional crisis pretty immediately.
” The Senate aides also said it might be difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as broad-scale nonproliferation efforts or increasing foreign aid after four years of what they described as neglect under Trump .
In the past , however , Republicans have fended off some of the White House ’ s calls for more draconian cuts in the foreign aid and State Department funding .
Still , other election observers are more hopeful , saying that Biden would come into office with the mandate of securing the most votes of any presidential candidate in U.S. history and a lot can get done with control of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I think you have to look at the specific issues .
A bipartisan majority of senators has already voted to halt U.S. military involvement in Saudi Arabia ’ s war in Yemen , and I expect they will again in 2021 , ” said Andrew Albertson , the head of the advocacy group Foreign Policy for America .
“ It ’ s clear the Biden administration will extend New START .
It ’ s going to restore U.S. leadership in combating the climate crisis .
Trump ’ s Muslim ban , his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refugees—all that ’ s going to end , ” he added .
“ I ’ m excited about all we can accomplish.
” Despite the likely defeat of Trump , the Democrats ’ failure to secure the Senate and expand their majority in the House led to a fresh round of finger-pointing between the party ’ s establishment and progressive flanks .
In a leaked private exchange among Democratic lawmakers , Rep. Abigail Spanberger , who narrowly beat her Republican challenger in Virginia , charged that the party ’ s shift to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We lost members who shouldn ’ t have lost , ” Spanberger said in a heated internal conference call with members of the House Democratic Caucus , according to an account in the Washington Post .
“ The No .
1 concern and thing that people brought to me in my district [ because of attack ads ] … was ‘ defunding the police.
’ … And we need to not ever use the word ‘ socialist ’ or ‘ socialism ’ ever again.
” And in Florida , the party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something of a liability , according to some Democratic congressional staffers .
Republican candidates portrayed establishment politicians , including Donna Shalala , a former U.S. secretary of health and human services , as socialists in the mold of left-wing Latin American autocrats from Cuba to Venezuela .
Progressives pushed back , noting that initiatives like a $ 15 minimum wage performed well in Republican districts , and that Democrats needn ’ t sacrifice their convictions and govern from a position of fear .
They cite the case of Rep. Katie Porter , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Orange County .
“ Dear centrist friends , the progressive left put differences aside and worked extremely hard to help get Biden elected , ” Sanders ’ s top foreign-policy advisor , Matt Duss , tweeted .
“ If you want to keep folks energized and mobilized maybe don ’ t blame them for your tough races.
” “ We have to be thinking about 2022 .
If we want to mobilize voters for the midterms , we have to keep all our constituencies energized , ” Duss told Foreign Policy on Friday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here.
” Progressives said there are areas of convergence , even with a Republican-controlled Senate , citing the growing consensus across party lines for the withdrawal of more than 4,600 U.S. military forces in Afghanistan by the end of 2021 .
There is also a lot the president can achieve—rejoining the Paris climate accord , restoring humanitarian funds to Palestinians , reopening nuclear talks with Iran , and rebuilding a demoralized State Department—without agreement from the Republicans .
But some key progressive goals , like greater oversight of presidential war powers , seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Authorization for Use of Military Force ( AUMF ) has been the bedrock of America ’ s forever wars , but some congressional Democrats say it will be difficult to rein in the AUMF under a Republican-controlled Senate .
Others suggest that too few lawmakers are willing to run the political risk of tying the president ’ s hands , particularly a Democratic president .
“ Do you want to be blamed for tying the president ’ s hands in the event of another terrorist attack and leave him with no ability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We ’ ve controlled the House for two years , and there has not been a credible effort to move something like that .
I don ’ t think the Biden administration will come up with legislation to undo his ability to conduct a war whenever he wants.
” A President Biden would have considerable leeway to offer concessions to Iran , including by easing sanctions imposed by Trump , in an effort to jump-start nuclear talks and to convince Tehran to return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear pact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be able to persuade the U.S. Congress to endorse such a deal—and that kind of iron-clad ratification might be what ’ s needed to get the once-burned Iranians back to the negotiating table .

As former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden edged closer to winning the presidency, Democratic lawmakers descended into a fresh round of recriminations, with some establishment Democrats charging that the party’s swerve to the left helped fuel a surprisingly strong showing by President Donald Trump that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate and forestall an expansion of the Democratic majority in the House.
As former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden edged closer to winning the presidency, Democratic lawmakers descended into a fresh round of recriminations, with some establishment Democrats charging that the party’s swerve to the left helped fuel a surprisingly strong showing by President Donald Trump that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate and forestall an expansion of the Democratic majority in the House.
Democrats still have a slim chance of gaining control of the Senate in a pair of Georgia runoffs in January, but for the time being—and potentially for two years—Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has maintained his grip on the upper chamber. That will make it more difficult for a Biden administration to satisfy progressive demands for cabinet picks, pass progressive legislation, or impose new checks on the power of the presidency.
The mixed outcome of the race threatens to diminish the influence of Sen. Bernie Sanders and other members of the party’s left flank, and may well ease pressure on Biden to offer progressives key positions in a new administration, according to interviews with several establishment and progressive Democrats. It also raised concerns among progressives that Biden will seek to forge a bipartisan governing consensus with McConnell, his former Senate colleague, at the expense of progressives who helped energize the party’s more liberal base that helped deliver Biden the presidency.
Democrats fear Republicans will threaten to block the appointment of progressives in a Biden administration, prompting the new president to bypass worthy candidates for government office. Of course, the Trump administration simply ignored Congress and placed acting officials in cabinet roles for extended periods of time—a possible playbook for the next administration.
“Look, at the end of the day, Joe Biden received more votes than anyone in the history of this country. President Trump, with a smaller victory, installed radically conservative folks in the administration,” said Stephen Miles, the executive director of the progressive advocacy group Win Without War. “The last four years have been a master class in how to staff your administration even with an uncooperative Senate.”
Several Democratic Senate aides conceded that it would be difficult for Biden to tap prominent progressive figures to senior administration posts, including the secretary of state position, for which some on the left had hoped that a progressive leader like Sen. Chris Murphy would be a front-runner. This week, Murphy predicted that “Mitch McConnell will force Joe Biden to negotiate every single cabinet secretary, every single district court judge, every single U.S. attorney with him,” according to Politico. “My guess is we’ll have a constitutional crisis pretty immediately.”
The Senate aides also said it might be difficult to enact more ambitious foreign policies, such as broad-scale nonproliferation efforts or increasing foreign aid after four years of what they described as neglect under Trump. In the past, however, Republicans have fended off some of the White House’s calls for more draconian cuts in the foreign aid and State Department funding.
Still, other election observers are more hopeful, saying that Biden would come into office with the mandate of securing the most votes of any presidential candidate in U.S. history and a lot can get done with control of the White House and the House alone.
“I think you have to look at the specific issues. A bipartisan majority of senators has already voted to halt U.S. military involvement in Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and I expect they will again in 2021,” said Andrew Albertson, the head of the advocacy group Foreign Policy for America. “It’s clear the Biden administration will extend New START. It’s going to restore U.S. leadership in combating the climate crisis. Trump’s Muslim ban, his family separation policy, his rejection of refugees—all that’s going to end,” he added. “I’m excited about all we can accomplish.”
Despite the likely defeat of Trump, the Democrats’ failure to secure the Senate and expand their majority in the House led to a fresh round of finger-pointing between the party’s establishment and progressive flanks.
In a leaked private exchange among Democratic lawmakers, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who narrowly beat her Republican challenger in Virginia, charged that the party’s shift to the left had nearly cost her the race.
“We lost members who shouldn’t have lost,” Spanberger said in a heated internal conference call with members of the House Democratic Caucus, according to an account in the Washington Post. “The No. 1 concern and thing that people brought to me in my district [because of attack ads] … was ‘defunding the police.’ … And we need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again.”
And in Florida, the party’s left wing proved to be something of a liability, according to some Democratic congressional staffers. Republican candidates portrayed establishment politicians, including Donna Shalala, a former U.S. secretary of health and human services, as socialists in the mold of left-wing Latin American autocrats from Cuba to Venezuela.
Progressives pushed back, noting that initiatives like a $15 minimum wage performed well in Republican districts, and that Democrats needn’t sacrifice their convictions and govern from a position of fear. They cite the case of Rep. Katie Porter, who won reelection in California’s conservative Orange County.
“Dear centrist friends, the progressive left put differences aside and worked extremely hard to help get Biden elected,” Sanders’s top foreign-policy advisor, Matt Duss, tweeted. “If you want to keep folks energized and mobilized maybe don’t blame them for your tough races.”
“We have to be thinking about 2022. If we want to mobilize voters for the midterms, we have to keep all our constituencies energized,” Duss told Foreign Policy on Friday. “Remember who helped get us here.”
Progressives said there are areas of convergence, even with a Republican-controlled Senate, citing the growing consensus across party lines for the withdrawal of more than 4,600 U.S. military forces in Afghanistan by the end of 2021.
There is also a lot the president can achieve—rejoining the Paris climate accord, restoring humanitarian funds to Palestinians, reopening nuclear talks with Iran, and rebuilding a demoralized State Department—without agreement from the Republicans.
But some key progressive goals, like greater oversight of presidential war powers, seem harder to achieve now. The 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) has been the bedrock of America’s forever wars, but some congressional Democrats say it will be difficult to rein in the AUMF under a Republican-controlled Senate. Others suggest that too few lawmakers are willing to run the political risk of tying the president’s hands, particularly a Democratic president.
“Do you want to be blamed for tying the president’s hands in the event of another terrorist attack and leave him with no ability to respond?” one congressional staffer said. “We’ve controlled the House for two years, and there has not been a credible effort to move something like that. I don’t think the Biden administration will come up with legislation to undo his ability to conduct a war whenever he wants.”
A President Biden would have considerable leeway to offer concessions to Iran, including by easing sanctions imposed by Trump, in an effort to jump-start nuclear talks and to convince Tehran to return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear pact. But it is unlikely that Biden would be able to persuade the U.S. Congress to endorse such a deal—and that kind of iron-clad ratification might be what’s needed to get the once-burned Iranians back to the negotiating table.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-06--What the U.S. Elections Mean for India

What the U.S. Elections Mean for India

What the U.S .
Elections Mean for India This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
Throughout Donald Trump ’ s presidency , surveys have shown that people around the world have little confidence in his foreign policy .
In January , for example , a Pew Research Center survey found that only 13 percent of adults in Germany and 8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would “ do the right thing regarding world affairs.
” India is one of the few countries—including Israel , the Philippines , and Poland—where a majority of people surveyed expressed confidence in Trump .
In India ’ s case , 56 percent said they trusted Trump .
What does that mean for a potential Biden presidency ?
There are several possible reasons why Indians warmed to Trump .
For one , Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to build a public rapport with the U.S. president , with high-profile joint events in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Second , policies such as Trump ’ s travel ban may have found a sympathetic audience in Modi ’ s India .
And third , Trump ’ s hawkish stance on China gave renewed impetus to the rationale for expanding U.S.-Indian ties on defense and intelligence sharing .
What might change under a Biden administration ?
Not too much .
For all the hype around Modi ’ s supposed chemistry with Trump , the media said similar things about Modi ’ s relationship with former President Barack Obama .
In other words , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with both Republican and Democratic leaders .
More substantively , analysts place perhaps too much emphasis on the personal chemistry between leaders .
The broader trend remains that the U.S.-Indian relationship has progressed—in defense , intelligence-sharing , trade , and people-to-people ties—over the past two decades under leaders of all stripes .
India is one of the few foreign-policy issues with bipartisan agreement in Washington .
It won ’ t all be smooth sailing under Biden .
Salvatore Babones writes in Foreign Policy that New Delhi should be wary of how Kamala Harris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president , putting human rights at the center of her approach .
That may be the case , but I think the relationship between the two countries is robust enough to adapt .
After all , Obama criticized Hindu majoritarianism when he visited India in 2015 .
Ultimately , the United States and India will find common cause in their hardening stances against China .
Outside of India , a Biden presidency won ’ t change much with regard to U.S. policies in other South Asian countries .
As Ali Latifi wrote in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the die is already cast for them : Biden is likely to continue the withdrawal of U.S. troops that accelerated under Trump ’ s presidency .
What about Pakistan and Bangladesh ?
The two countries are among the top five countries with the most Muslims in the world , and for that reason may find it easier to avoid dealing with Trump .
And Islamabad will no doubt remember that Biden helped negotiate $ 1.5 billion in military aid to Pakistan in 2008 , an effort for which he was awarded the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civilian honor .
Indian Americans in the U.S. election .
I ’ d be remiss to ignore two more things about the U.S. elections relevant to South Asians , and Indians in particular .
First , Harris is now poised to become the country ’ s first female vice president , first Black vice president , and first vice president of Indian descent .
It ’ s a huge milestone for the Indian American community , which comprises more than 1 percent of the U.S. population .
Several other Indian Americans won their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jayapal , Ami Bera , Raja Krishnamoorthi , and Ro Khanna will return to the House for another term .
But several other candidates failed , including Sri Preston Kulkarni , who ran for a House seat from Texas , and Sara Gideon , who failed in her bid to win a Senate seat in Maine .
Indian Americans were expected to play a larger role in this election .
Once demographic data is released , we ’ ll come back to explore the impact they had .

Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, surveys have shown that people around the world have little confidence in his foreign policy. In January, for example, a Pew Research Center survey found that only 13 percent of adults in Germany and 8 percent in Mexico had faith that Trump would “do the right thing regarding world affairs.”
Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, surveys have shown that people around the world have little confidence in his foreign policy. In January, for example, a Pew Research Center survey found that only 13 percent of adults in Germany and 8 percent in Mexico had faith that Trump would “do the right thing regarding world affairs.”
India is one of the few countries—including Israel, the Philippines, and Poland—where a majority of people surveyed expressed confidence in Trump. In India’s case, 56 percent said they trusted Trump. What does that mean for a potential Biden presidency?
There are several possible reasons why Indians warmed to Trump. For one, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to build a public rapport with the U.S. president, with high-profile joint events in Houston and in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. Second, policies such as Trump’s travel ban may have found a sympathetic audience in Modi’s India. And third, Trump’s hawkish stance on China gave renewed impetus to the rationale for expanding U.S.-Indian ties on defense and intelligence sharing.
What might change under a Biden administration? Not too much. For all the hype around Modi’s supposed chemistry with Trump, the media said similar things about Modi’s relationship with former President Barack Obama. In other words, Modi has shown he can build relations with both Republican and Democratic leaders.
More substantively, analysts place perhaps too much emphasis on the personal chemistry between leaders. The broader trend remains that the U.S.-Indian relationship has progressed—in defense, intelligence-sharing, trade, and people-to-people ties—over the past two decades under leaders of all stripes. India is one of the few foreign-policy issues with bipartisan agreement in Washington.
It won’t all be smooth sailing under Biden. Salvatore Babones writes in Foreign Policy that New Delhi should be wary of how Kamala Harris might be tougher on India as vice president, putting human rights at the center of her approach. That may be the case, but I think the relationship between the two countries is robust enough to adapt. After all, Obama criticized Hindu majoritarianism when he visited India in 2015. Ultimately, the United States and India will find common cause in their hardening stances against China.
Outside of India, a Biden presidency won’t change much with regard to U.S. policies in other South Asian countries. As Ali Latifi wrote in Foreign Policy last week, Afghans know that the die is already cast for them: Biden is likely to continue the withdrawal of U.S. troops that accelerated under Trump’s presidency.
What about Pakistan and Bangladesh? The two countries are among the top five countries with the most Muslims in the world, and for that reason may find it easier to avoid dealing with Trump. And Islamabad will no doubt remember that Biden helped negotiate $1.5 billion in military aid to Pakistan in 2008, an effort for which he was awarded the Hilal-e-Pakistan, the country’s second-highest civilian honor.
Indian Americans in the U.S. election. I’d be remiss to ignore two more things about the U.S. elections relevant to South Asians, and Indians in particular. First, Harris is now poised to become the country’s first female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. It’s a huge milestone for the Indian American community, which comprises more than 1 percent of the U.S. population.
Several other Indian Americans won their races for House seats. Democrats Pramila Jayapal, Ami Bera, Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Ro Khanna will return to the House for another term. But several other candidates failed, including Sri Preston Kulkarni, who ran for a House seat from Texas, and Sara Gideon, who failed in her bid to win a Senate seat in Maine.
Indian Americans were expected to play a larger role in this election. Once demographic data is released, we’ll come back to explore the impact they had.