Tehran’s Worst Nightmare

The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan comes at a particularly bad time for Iran .
At home , it faces an extremely difficult economic situation thanks to U.S. sanctions .
Abroad , it is involved in multiple unfinished geopolitical adventures in the Arab world—from Iraq to Syria and beyond—in which it has invested considerably in recent years .
Although it might like to involve itself in the conflict in the South Caucasus , where it has played the role of mediator before , Tehran ’ s bandwidth to do so is considerably less than its geographic proximity to the conflict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not enjoy the diplomatic independence it had in the early 1990s , when fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh last erupted on this scale and when the Iranians could more effectively work between the two sides .
Instead , this time around , Tehran has to take a back seat to Russia , Turkey , and the West as those powers shape the trajectory of the conflict .
And yet , thanks to Iran ’ s sizable Azeri minority , at around 20 million strong , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could overflow and pose a serious risk to internal Iranian security .
Tehran doesn ’ t want to lose in this conflict , but it holds a weak hand .
After the latest hostilities between Christian-majority Armenia and Shiite Muslim-majority Azerbaijan broke out on Sept. 27 , it took Tehran three days to accept that this new outbreak of violence was qualitatively different from previous skirmishes .
Despite the signing of a cease-fire at the end of the 1988-1994 war , the two neighboring countries have engaged in multiple rounds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , most recently , earlier this summer .
Four days into the hostilities , realizing that the usual quick end was not in the offing , Tehran suddenly shifted its diplomatic rhetoric from an emphasis on its neutrality and willingness to mediate between Yerevan and Baku to claims that it has sided with the Azerbaijanis .
On Oct. 1 , the political representatives of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in four of the country ’ s northwestern provinces with significant ethnic Azeri populations released a joint statement in support of Azerbaijan .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubt ” that the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan .
Yet the statement happened to be issued just as reports revealed that Tehran had opened up its airspace for Russian military supplies destined for Armenia .
Protests broke out not only in the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan but also in Tehran , with such chants as “ Karabakh is ours .
It will remain ours.
” The mere mention of the possibility of Iran acting as a conduit for arms for Armenia was bound to be explosive news , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Tehran .
This is exactly what happened .
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani , Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif , and Ali Akbar Velayati , the top foreign-policy advisor to Khamenei , all reiterated the position that Armenia should leave the Azerbaijani territory it has occupied since 1994 .
More recklessly , a leading pro-regime grand ayatollah , Hossein Nouri Hamedani , framed the conflict in religious terms : “ Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the Islamic world and should return to the Islamic country and must be liberated.
” The popular momentum behind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great that Tehran has not even allowed Azerbaijan ’ s close partnership with Israel to get in the way .
Azerbaijan , one of four Shiite Muslim-majority countries in the world ( together with Iran , Iraq , and Bahrain ) , also happens to have close economic , military , and intelligence ties with Israel , Tehran ’ s regional archfoe .
But that has been a reality for some two decades , and the Iranians have learned to adapt to it .
Simply put , Iran is not in a position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Azeri minority .
Unlike in the early 1990s , when the collapse of the Soviet Union was just opening room for Iranian Azeris to reconnect with their brethren to the north , who had been under Russian/Soviet rule since the early 1800s , the ethnic Iranian Azeri community is today far more aware of the dynamics behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and far more passionately behind Baku .
This poses a serious concern for Tehran .
Iran is , after all , a multiethnic country , and Tehran is ill prepared to handle an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict .
Already , periodic skirmishes with militant ethnic groups are a reality of life in the country .
In the southeast , on the border with Pakistan , the ethnic Baloch Sunni jihadi group Jaish al-Adl , with its reported ties to al Qaeda , continues to target Iranian security forces .
Ongoing anti-Tehran militancy is also part of life in Iran ’ s western Kurdish regions on the border with Iraq .
While it is an exaggeration to portray Iran as a powder keg ready to blow , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unrest among ethnic minorities is not a driver behind Tehran ’ s sudden rhetorical shift in support of Baku .
Also at play in Iran ’ s calculations will be Turkey , the third-party actor in this conflict that Tehran watches the most intently .
Tehran has accused Ankara of fueling the conflict by urging Azerbaijan to first attempt to recapture as much of its occupied territory as possible before agreeing to a cease-fire and diplomatic talks .
However , while Iran is still tangled up with Turkey in Syria—where Iran supports the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the opposition—Tehran won ’ t want to escalate tensions over Armenia and Azerbaijan too far .
Two key issues drive Tehran ’ s thinking here .
First , Turkey—which many Iranian commentators see as hellbent on establishing its guardianship of all Turkic peoples—is easily able to hit back at Iran .
Ankara could seek to incite pockets of the large ethnic ( Turkic ) Azeri population in Iran against Tehran ’ s policies .
Second , despite the lingering suspicion between the two powers , Turkey is an important neighbor and trading partner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Tehran does not want to see Ankara join its ( already long ) list of open adversaries .
No matter how carefully the Iranians play their cards in this latest conflict in the South Caucasus , the simple reality is that Tehran holds a much weaker hand in the region now than it did in the early 1990s .
Today , no one really considers Iranian mediation as a serious proposition .
Tehran , thanks to its ongoing standoff with Washington and preoccupation with conflicts in the Arab world , has rarely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ escalating with Turkey—in the South Caucasus .
As Iran sits back and anxiously watches Russia and Turkey act as the two major foreign drivers behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict , it will above all want to see a quick end to this latest round of fighting , which , if broadened , could drag Iran into a new regional war it can hardly afford .

The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan comes at a particularly bad time for Iran. At home, it faces an extremely difficult economic situation thanks to U.S. sanctions. Abroad, it is involved in multiple unfinished geopolitical adventures in the Arab world—from Iraq to Syria and beyond—in which it has invested considerably in recent years.
The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan comes at a particularly bad time for Iran. At home, it faces an extremely difficult economic situation thanks to U.S. sanctions. Abroad, it is involved in multiple unfinished geopolitical adventures in the Arab world—from Iraq to Syria and beyond—in which it has invested considerably in recent years.
Although it might like to involve itself in the conflict in the South Caucasus, where it has played the role of mediator before, Tehran’s bandwidth to do so is considerably less than its geographic proximity to the conflict might suggest. Worse still, Tehran does not enjoy the diplomatic independence it had in the early 1990s, when fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh last erupted on this scale and when the Iranians could more effectively work between the two sides.
Instead, this time around, Tehran has to take a back seat to Russia, Turkey, and the West as those powers shape the trajectory of the conflict. And yet, thanks to Iran’s sizable Azeri minority, at around 20 million strong, there’s a real possibility that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could overflow and pose a serious risk to internal Iranian security. Tehran doesn’t want to lose in this conflict, but it holds a weak hand.
After the latest hostilities between Christian-majority Armenia and Shiite Muslim-majority Azerbaijan broke out on Sept. 27, it took Tehran three days to accept that this new outbreak of violence was qualitatively different from previous skirmishes. Despite the signing of a cease-fire at the end of the 1988-1994 war, the two neighboring countries have engaged in multiple rounds of fighting in the years since, including, most recently, earlier this summer. Four days into the hostilities, realizing that the usual quick end was not in the offing, Tehran suddenly shifted its diplomatic rhetoric from an emphasis on its neutrality and willingness to mediate between Yerevan and Baku to claims that it has sided with the Azerbaijanis.
On Oct. 1, the political representatives of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in four of the country’s northwestern provinces with significant ethnic Azeri populations released a joint statement in support of Azerbaijan. The statement declared that “there is no doubt” that the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. Yet the statement happened to be issued just as reports revealed that Tehran had opened up its airspace for Russian military supplies destined for Armenia. Protests broke out not only in the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan but also in Tehran, with such chants as “Karabakh is ours. It will remain ours.”
The mere mention of the possibility of Iran acting as a conduit for arms for Armenia was bound to be explosive news, and it was destined to be swiftly denied by Tehran. This is exactly what happened. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign-policy advisor to Khamenei, all reiterated the position that Armenia should leave the Azerbaijani territory it has occupied since 1994. More recklessly, a leading pro-regime grand ayatollah, Hossein Nouri Hamedani, framed the conflict in religious terms: “Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the Islamic world and should return to the Islamic country and must be liberated.”
The popular momentum behind fully siding with Baku has been so great that Tehran has not even allowed Azerbaijan’s close partnership with Israel to get in the way. Azerbaijan, one of four Shiite Muslim-majority countries in the world (together with Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain), also happens to have close economic, military, and intelligence ties with Israel, Tehran’s regional archfoe. But that has been a reality for some two decades, and the Iranians have learned to adapt to it.
Simply put, Iran is not in a position to act in opposition to its own Azeri minority. Unlike in the early 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union was just opening room for Iranian Azeris to reconnect with their brethren to the north, who had been under Russian/Soviet rule since the early 1800s, the ethnic Iranian Azeri community is today far more aware of the dynamics behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and far more passionately behind Baku. This poses a serious concern for Tehran. Iran is, after all, a multiethnic country, and Tehran is ill prepared to handle an uprising among other aggrieved minorities sparked by the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
Already, periodic skirmishes with militant ethnic groups are a reality of life in the country. In the southeast, on the border with Pakistan, the ethnic Baloch Sunni jihadi group Jaish al-Adl, with its reported ties to al Qaeda, continues to target Iranian security forces. Ongoing anti-Tehran militancy is also part of life in Iran’s western Kurdish regions on the border with Iraq.
While it is an exaggeration to portray Iran as a powder keg ready to blow, it would be equally misleading to claim that unrest among ethnic minorities is not a driver behind Tehran’s sudden rhetorical shift in support of Baku.
Tehran’s shift could become more pronounced and material depending on the trajectory of this round of conflict. While Tehran has maintained friendly relations with Yerevan since Armenia’s independence in 1991, it has also experienced a notable expansion in relations with Baku in recent years, including rising trade, tourism, military-to-military cooperation, and even the possibility of Iranian arms exports to Azerbaijan.
Also at play in Iran’s calculations will be Turkey, the third-party actor in this conflict that Tehran watches the most intently. Tehran has accused Ankara of fueling the conflict by urging Azerbaijan to first attempt to recapture as much of its occupied territory as possible before agreeing to a cease-fire and diplomatic talks. However, while Iran is still tangled up with Turkey in Syria—where Iran supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad while Turkey backs the opposition—Tehran won’t want to escalate tensions over Armenia and Azerbaijan too far.
Two key issues drive Tehran’s thinking here. First, Turkey—which many Iranian commentators see as hellbent on establishing its guardianship of all Turkic peoples—is easily able to hit back at Iran. Ankara could seek to incite pockets of the large ethnic (Turkic) Azeri population in Iran against Tehran’s policies.
Second, despite the lingering suspicion between the two powers, Turkey is an important neighbor and trading partner for Iran. Thanks to its isolation, Tehran does not want to see Ankara join its (already long) list of open adversaries. No matter how carefully the Iranians play their cards in this latest conflict in the South Caucasus, the simple reality is that Tehran holds a much weaker hand in the region now than it did in the early 1990s.
Today, no one really considers Iranian mediation as a serious proposition. Tehran, thanks to its ongoing standoff with Washington and preoccupation with conflicts in the Arab world, has rarely been this beholden to Moscow—or wary of escalating with Turkey—in the South Caucasus. As Iran sits back and anxiously watches Russia and Turkey act as the two major foreign drivers behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, it will above all want to see a quick end to this latest round of fighting, which, if broadened, could drag Iran into a new regional war it can hardly afford.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-14--Isolated in Rural Nigeria—and Waiting for America to Vote

After months without access to family planning services , 28-year-old Samuno trudged along the dirt paths leading to the only clinic for some 80 miles serving her rural village of Kaugama , a remote farming area in northeast Jigawa , Nigeria ’ s third most impoverished state .
The facility itself—a rundown , government-owned bungalow with sloping ceilings , wall cracks wide enough for fat lizards to slip through and no regular staff—did not discourage the women from their hours-long trek .
The women sought the female medical workers in crisp white uniforms who came every few months , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The nurses , employed by the organization Marie Stopes Nigeria , provide free family planning counseling , pregnancy testing , contraceptives and , when necessary , post-abortion care to women in underserved and remote areas across the West African country .
The organization , which often works with the Nigerian government , also advocates for more relaxed abortion laws in a country where the procedure is both criminalized and common ( potentially as many as 2.7 million abortions are carried out annually in Nigeria , most of them unsafe , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We have been waiting for this , ” said Samuno , a trader and mother of six children who was married at 14 .
She can barely afford to feed her children , Samuno says , and she doesn ’ t want to become pregnant again and give birth to a seventh child .
Instead , she says : “ I want to rest.
” For poor and rural Nigerian women like Samuno , struggling to support her family in a country with one of the world ’ s worst maternal mortality rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. presidential election—and the possible repeal of controversial Trump administration policies—could mean the difference between life and death .
With abortion in the United States now central to this year ’ s political debate , access to sexual and reproductive care is also on the ballot , possibly affecting millions of women around the world .
The United States is the world ’ s largest global health funder , and U.S. policies that place broad restrictions on billions of dollars of funding have the power to drastically limit access to lifesaving services , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In January 2017 , President Donald Trump reinstated the Mexico City Policy , also known as the global gag rule by critics and women ’ s rights advocates .
The policy , first introduced by President Ronald Reagan and implemented by every Republican president since , cuts funding to global health providers receiving U.S. financial aid that “ perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning , ” according to USAID .
Later that year , Trump further expanded the 1984 policy , renaming it “ Protecting Life in Global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only family planning and reproductive health providers , but also those working on issues related to global health security , HIV and AIDS , maternal and child health and infectious diseases .
Should Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden win the November election , he could rescind the Mexico City Policy , just as both former Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have done before him , which could increase access to health services and support for millions of women worldwide .
The financial shortfall created by the cut in U.S. funding means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mexico City Policy in order to continue pressing for safe abortion access and laws—has had to limit their family planning services , halt plans to expand , and stop partnerships with other organizations who signed up to the policy to receive U.S. aid , according to the organization .
Since 2017 , Marie Stopes Nigeria says at least two programs focused on training family planning service providers , much like the mobile nurses in Kaugama have been halted .
The organization ’ s 23 remote outreach teams serve a population of more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trained 2,600 service providers with $ 14 million in U.S. funding in the five years prior to Trump ’ s expansion of the Mexico City Policy , the organization says it has only been able to train 780 additional providers since then .
Marie Stopes Nigeria , says they have also been blocked from receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in funding that could have helped expand its walk-in and mobile support services across the West African country .
The Mexico City Policy has “ massively shrunk the work that can be done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stopes Nigeria ’ s country director .
Many women opt for abortion because they do not know about family planning , he says , and so cutting off funding providing those services in a bid to halt abortion is unfair .
“ The whole concept of family planning is an emergency business , it ’ s a necessity , ” he said by phone .
Trump ’ s April 2017 defunding of the United Nations Population Fund ( UNFPA ) has also led to immense funding shortages in the country .
In 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut , UNFPA contributed around $ 18.5 million in reproductive healthcare funding to support family planning , maternal health and HIV assistance across Nigeria .
The next year , that number dropped to roughly $ 10 million .
For many Nigerian women , particularly those in remote parts of the country , the difficulties imposed by U.S. foreign policy on the search for contraception and family planning services are compounded by the local conservative and religious resistance to contraception and abortion , and now , the crippling COVID-19 health crisis that has further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care globally .
Samuno often has to wait for months to get contraceptive and family planning counseling , and , like the other women who gathered on floor mats inside the Marie Stopes clinic , can neither afford the $ 3 contraceptive cost in hospitals some 80 or so miles away in Dutse , the capital of Jigawa state , nor can they easily travel the distance without the permission from their husbands .
Most of the Nigerian women who come to Marie Stopes have specific requests : birth control pills and injectable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months and others , like a small plastic rod injected into the arm that dispenses the hormone progestin which halts production of a monthly egg ] , for years ) .
Some women who see the nurses need critical care after having sought out dangerous unregulated abortions , desperate to end pregnancies in a country where abortions are illegal , except in cases when a woman might die without one .
The vast majority of Nigerian women do not use contraceptives , particularly in low-literacy rural areas where misinformation spreads rampantly by word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without medical basis that contraceptives cause infertility .
In the country ’ s conservative north where Sharia law , or Islamic law , is practiced , religious and traditional norms do not encourage child spacing , meaning many women who lack decision-making power in their families abstain or are barred from using contraceptives .
In Jigawa , the average fertility rate was 8.5 live births per woman in 2016 , according to Nigeria ’ s National Bureau of Statistics—one of the highest rates in Nigeria and far surpassing the global average of around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the United Nations .
Women like Samuno are outliers in their communities : Her husband is friends with the village head , who works closely with Marie Stopes ’ health workers and allows Samuno to hike to the clinic for birth control .
Maternal mortality rates are higher in northeast Nigeria where the ongoing war with the extremist Boko Haram has led to decimated health infrastructure .
Nigerian government efforts to expand family planning services and awareness have seen some impact .
The number of Nigerian women using modern contraceptive methods rose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent in 2018 , according to a 2018 health survey conducted by the Nigerian government .
But Nigeria also has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the world , although post-abortion care is not illegal , which allows Marie Stopes to treat women who have undergone unsafe abortions .
Social stigma attached to abortion is high across the country , particularly in the Muslim-majority north , also home to Nigeria ’ s poorest households .
In May 2019 , Nigerian police , raided a Marie Stopes clinic in Lagos , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ southernmost coast , harassing staff and confiscating confidential client information , with one officer allegedly claiming that birth control was abortion .
“ People see giving birth as their strength here , ” says Blessing Agbo , the head nurse of the mobile nursing team , as she paused briefly to call in another patient for a contraceptive implant .
“ As a woman , if you don ’ t have plenty of children , you don ’ t have a voice.
” Despite the stigma , research in Nigeria points to rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pregnancies , women often opt for roadside doctors , some of whom use wildly unsafe methods such as drinking dissolved eyeliner .
Meanwhile , COVID-19 has made the situation even more dire .
A months-long national lockdown in Nigeria meant a doubling of calls to health facilities requesting family planning services as well as gender-based violence treatment and post-abortion care , according to Marie Stopes and IPAS , another reproductive health organization in Nigeria .
Jigawa State saw some of the highest numbers of sexual abuse cases reported in recent months , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IPAS , which advocates for increased global access to safe abortions and educates women on sexual and reproductive health in Nigeria .
IPAS also rejected the terms of the Mexico City Policy .
With global COVID-19 shutdowns limiting medicine supplies , women who can not access free care are now paying much more to get the care they need—or going without it , risking potentially deadly results .
Samuno says the countrywide lockdown meant husbands in Kaugama , who would normally go off to work in the more prosperous southern Nigeria , were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more unintended pregnancies , according to local women , a situation the women at the Marie Stopes clinic say they are determined to avoid .
Habiba , a 30-year-old woman who has given birth to 10 babies , six of whom have survived , says she ’ s particularly at risk for unplanned pregnancies because she doesn ’ t leave the house to trade or farm like other women .
“ I ’ m a housewife and this is important for me because I want to rest before I can think of giving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minutes after a nurse implanted a plastic birth control insert into her arm .
The white-clad nurses said they were also the first health workers to relay the danger of COVID-19 , , on the same day that they arrived at the government-owned bungalow in Kaugama .
They stressed the importance of hand washing , sanitization , and social distancing before turning their attention to family planning .
Minutes before noon , just as the rain started to trickle from the sky , Samuno got her turn to select what contraceptive method she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be inserted in her arm .
It would help her prevent pregnancy for up to five years .
The women who left before their turns , fearful of the torrential rains , would have to wait for the next time the nurses showed up .
It could be three months , or it could be 10 .
Those who stayed behind , sitting on the mats waiting beside Samuno—teen girls and middle-aged women alike , with babies strapped to their backs under long flowing hijabs of green , red , and black—would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or worse , if neighbors found out about their trip to see the nurses .
But Samuno shrugged , dauntless .
She ’ s done getting pregnant .
“ Shikena , ” Samuno said , in the local Hausa language .
Finished .
This article is a collaboration between Foreign Policy and The Fuller Project .

Blessing Agbo, a nurse, places a contraceptive implant for Habiba, a 30-year-old patient who didn’t give her last name, in Kaugama on Aug. 13. Habiba, who has six surviving children after 10 births, says she wants to take a break from bearing children. Shola Lawal for Foreign Policy and The Fuller Project
KAUGAMA, Nigeria—Saki Samuno hissed at the darkening skies. The women around her wore the same irritated look as they pointed upwards, anticipating a torrential downpour.
After months without access to family planning services, 28-year-old Samuno trudged along the dirt paths leading to the only clinic for some 80 miles serving her rural village of Kaugama, a remote farming area in northeast Jigawa, Nigeria’s third most impoverished state.
The facility itself—a rundown, government-owned bungalow with sloping ceilings, wall cracks wide enough for fat lizards to slip through and no regular staff—did not discourage the women from their hours-long trek. The women sought the female medical workers in crisp white uniforms who came every few months, or longer, bearing medication and medical expertise. The nurses, employed by the organization Marie Stopes Nigeria, provide free family planning counseling, pregnancy testing, contraceptives and, when necessary, post-abortion care to women in underserved and remote areas across the West African country. The organization, which often works with the Nigerian government, also advocates for more relaxed abortion laws in a country where the procedure is both criminalized and common (potentially as many as 2.7 million abortions are carried out annually in Nigeria, most of them unsafe, according to Johns Hopkins University research).
“We have been waiting for this,” said Samuno, a trader and mother of six children who was married at 14. She can barely afford to feed her children, Samuno says, and she doesn’t want to become pregnant again and give birth to a seventh child. Instead, she says: “I want to rest.”
For poor and rural Nigerian women like Samuno, struggling to support her family in a country with one of the world’s worst maternal mortality rates and highest fertility rates, the November U.S. presidential election—and the possible repeal of controversial Trump administration policies—could mean the difference between life and death. With abortion in the United States now central to this year’s political debate, access to sexual and reproductive care is also on the ballot, possibly affecting millions of women around the world. The United States is the world’s largest global health funder, and U.S. policies that place broad restrictions on billions of dollars of funding have the power to drastically limit access to lifesaving services, from Nigeria to Nepal and beyond.
Two nurses employed by Marie Stopes Nigeria enter a compound to administer family planning services in Kano on Aug. 14. The women come around 1 p.m., which coincides with the Friday congregational prayer that all men must attend, enabling their wives to more freely talk about their needs.
In January 2017, President Donald Trump reinstated the Mexico City Policy, also known as the global gag rule by critics and women’s rights advocates. The policy, first introduced by President Ronald Reagan and implemented by every Republican president since, cuts funding to global health providers receiving U.S. financial aid that “perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning,” according to USAID.
Later that year, Trump further expanded the 1984 policy, renaming it “Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance,” to include not only family planning and reproductive health providers, but also those working on issues related to global health security, HIV and AIDS, maternal and child health and infectious diseases.
Should Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden win the November election, he could rescind the Mexico City Policy, just as both former Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have done before him, which could increase access to health services and support for millions of women worldwide.
The financial shortfall created by the cut in U.S. funding means Marie Stopes Nigeria—which refused to sign the Mexico City Policy in order to continue pressing for safe abortion access and laws—has had to limit their family planning services, halt plans to expand, and stop partnerships with other organizations who signed up to the policy to receive U.S. aid, according to the organization.
Since 2017, Marie Stopes Nigeria says at least two programs focused on training family planning service providers, much like the mobile nurses in Kaugama have been halted. The organization’s 23 remote outreach teams serve a population of more than 200 million. While Marie Stopes Nigeria trained 2,600 service providers and supported other key initiatives with $14 million in U.S. funding in the five years prior to Trump’s expansion of the Mexico City Policy, the organization says it has only been able to train 1,010 additional providers since then. Marie Stopes Nigeria, says they have also been blocked from receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in funding that could have helped expand its walk-in and mobile support services across the West African country.
The Mexico City Policy has “massively shrunk the work that can be done,” says Effiom Effiom, Marie Stopes Nigeria’s country director. Many women opt for abortion because they do not know about family planning, he says, and so cutting off funding providing those services in a bid to halt abortion is unfair. “The whole concept of family planning is an emergency business, it’s a necessity,” he said by phone.
Trump’s April 2017 defunding of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has also led to immense funding shortages in the country. In 2016, the year prior to the funding cut, UNFPA contributed around $18.5 million in reproductive healthcare funding to support family planning, maternal health and HIV assistance across Nigeria. The next year, that number dropped to roughly $10 million.
For many Nigerian women, particularly those in remote parts of the country, the difficulties imposed by U.S. foreign policy on the search for contraception and family planning services are compounded by the local conservative and religious resistance to contraception and abortion, and now, the crippling COVID-19 health crisis that has further limited access to sexual and reproductive health care globally.
Samuno often has to wait for months to get contraceptive and family planning counseling, and, like the other women who gathered on floor mats inside the Marie Stopes clinic, can neither afford the $3 contraceptive cost in hospitals some 80 or so miles away in Dutse, the capital of Jigawa state, nor can they easily travel the distance without the permission from their husbands. Most of the Nigerian women who come to Marie Stopes have specific requests: birth control pills and injectable contraceptives (some that prevent pregnancy for months and others, like a small plastic rod injected into the arm that dispenses the hormone progestin which halts production of a monthly egg], for years). Some women who see the nurses need critical care after having sought out dangerous unregulated abortions, desperate to end pregnancies in a country where abortions are illegal, except in cases when a woman might die without one.
The vast majority of Nigerian women do not use contraceptives, particularly in low-literacy rural areas where misinformation spreads rampantly by word of mouth, some of it stating without medical basis that contraceptives cause infertility. In the country’s conservative north where Sharia law, or Islamic law, is practiced, religious and traditional norms do not encourage child spacing, meaning many women who lack decision-making power in their families abstain or are barred from using contraceptives.
In Jigawa, the average fertility rate was 8.5 live births per woman in 2016, according to Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics—one of the highest rates in Nigeria and far surpassing the global average of around 2.5 live births per woman, according to the United Nations.
Health workers with Marie Stopes Nigeria stand by their car in the remote village of Kaugama on Aug. 13, donning protective equipment amid the coronavirus pandemic. The nurses are a mobile team roaming hard-to-reach areas. They visit the village’s health facility once or twice in a year to provide family planning services.
Women like Samuno are outliers in their communities: Her husband is friends with the village head, who works closely with Marie Stopes’ health workers and allows Samuno to hike to the clinic for birth control. Maternal mortality rates are higher in northeast Nigeria where the ongoing war with the extremist Boko Haram has led to decimated health infrastructure.
Nigerian government efforts to expand family planning services and awareness have seen some impact. The number of Nigerian women using modern contraceptive methods rose from 6 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2018, according to a 2018 health survey conducted by the Nigerian government. But Nigeria also has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the world, although post-abortion care is not illegal, which allows Marie Stopes to treat women who have undergone unsafe abortions.
Social stigma attached to abortion is high across the country, particularly in the Muslim-majority north, also home to Nigeria’s poorest households. In May 2019, Nigerian police, raided a Marie Stopes clinic in Lagos, the country’s economic capital on the southernmost coast, harassing staff and confiscating confidential client information, with one officer allegedly claiming that birth control was abortion.
“People see giving birth as their strength here,” says Blessing Agbo, the head nurse of the mobile nursing team, as she paused briefly to call in another patient for a contraceptive implant. “As a woman, if you don’t have plenty of children, you don’t have a voice.”
Despite the stigma, research in Nigeria points to rising abortion rates. In cases of unintended pregnancies, women often opt for roadside doctors, some of whom use wildly unsafe methods such as drinking dissolved eyeliner.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 has made the situation even more dire. A months-long national lockdown in Nigeria meant a doubling of calls to health facilities requesting family planning services as well as gender-based violence treatment and post-abortion care, according to Marie Stopes and Ipas, another reproductive health organization in Nigeria.
Jigawa State saw some of the highest numbers of sexual abuse cases reported in recent months, according to Lucky Palmer, country director for Ipas, which advocates for increased global access to safe abortions and educates women on sexual and reproductive health in Nigeria. Ipas also spoke out against the terms of the Mexico City Policy.
With global COVID-19 shutdowns limiting medicine supplies, women who cannot access free care are now paying much more to get the care they need—or going without it, risking potentially deadly results.
Health workers with Marie Stopes Nigeria stand by their car in the remote village of Kaugama on Aug. 13, donning protective equipment amid the coronavirus pandemic. The nurses are a mobile team roaming hard-to-reach areas. They visit the village’s health facility once or twice in a year to provide family planning services.
Samuno says the countrywide lockdown meant husbands in Kaugama, who would normally go off to work in the more prosperous southern Nigeria, were stuck at home. It also meant more unintended pregnancies, according to local women, a situation the women at the Marie Stopes clinic say they are determined to avoid. Habiba, a 30-year-old woman who has given birth to 10 babies, six of whom have survived, says she’s particularly at risk for unplanned pregnancies because she doesn’t leave the house to trade or farm like other women. “I’m a housewife and this is important for me because I want to rest before I can think of giving birth again,” she said, minutes after a nurse implanted a plastic birth control insert into her arm.
The white-clad nurses said they were also the first health workers to relay the danger of COVID-19,, on the same day that they arrived at the government-owned bungalow in Kaugama. They stressed the importance of hand washing, sanitization, and social distancing before turning their attention to family planning.
Minutes before noon, just as the rain started to trickle from the sky, Samuno got her turn to select what contraceptive method she wanted. She chose a plastic rod to be inserted in her arm. It would help her prevent pregnancy for up to five years.
The women who left before their turns, fearful of the torrential rains, would have to wait for the next time the nurses showed up. It could be three months, or it could be 10.
Those who stayed behind, sitting on the mats waiting beside Samuno—teen girls and middle-aged women alike, with babies strapped to their backs under long flowing hijabs of green, red, and black—would likely be the butt of gossip, or worse, if neighbors found out about their trip to see the nurses. But Samuno shrugged, dauntless. She’s done getting pregnant.
“Shikena,” Samuno said, in the local Hausa language. Finished.
This article is a collaboration between Foreign Policy and The Fuller Project.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-15--The United States Needs a Red Team to Protect the Election

The United States Needs a Red Team to Protect the Election “ What if a foreign adversary hacks our secretary of states ’ websites and changes the vote totals ?
” U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O ’ Brien asked earlier this month .
Sure , the United States has never been hit by this sort of election interference before .
But the art of keeping a country safe is the art of anticipating what the enemy might do next .
As both Russia ’ s Vladimir Putin and China ’ s Xi Jinping have demonstrated , America ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an election around the corner and at risk in known and unknown ways , need to do their part to keep the country safe—by thinking like the enemy .
That means volunteering to fight cyberintruders and preparing for an Election Day that could feature power cuts and GPS jamming .
O ’ Brien is far from alone in fretting about the harm assorted adversaries can cause U.S. democracy by interfering in this most fraught of elections .
Last month , FBI Director Christopher Wray told U.S. lawmakers that Russia was generating a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discrediting Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and the election itself , and in August William Evanina , the director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center , warned that Russia , China , and Iran were all trying to interfere with the election—China mostly to denigrate Trump , Russia to denigrate Biden , and Iran to discredit the elections altogether .
Facebook has already removed a few accounts used to spread Russian fake news .
But now the public is acquainted with disinformation and interference with election infrastructure , and wary of it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 41 percent of Americans said the United States was not prepared to keep the November elections safe and secure .
But what if America ’ s rivals don ’ t focus on their old tools in this election ?
Recorded Future , a cybersecurity firm that has received funding from both Google Ventures and the CIA ’ s investment arm , In-Q-Tel , noted last month that there have been no “ observable Russian state-sponsored hack-and-leak operations ” this year .
In November 2019 , however , Russian operatives hacked Burisma , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s son Hunter Biden is associated .
Then , on Wednesday , the New York Post—a U.S. tabloid—published an exposé of Hunter ’ s alleged contacts with Burisma that the paper said was based on emails found on a laptop belonging to Hunter that had been dropped off for repair in a Delaware shop and apparently shared with Trump confidant Rudy Giuliani .
The details and indeed the veracity of the story remain murky and Twitter and Facebook have already restricted its distribution on their platforms .
Constant fake news and election-infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the white noise that numbs people ’ s attention .
“ Attack [ the enemy ] where he is unprepared , appear where you are not expected , ” advised Sun Tzu in The Art of War .
Though the Chinese war manual was published in the 5th century BC , generations of Western and Asian leaders alike have been devouring Sun Tzu ’ s wisdom ever since .
Putin seems a devoted disciple of Sun Tzu , or perhaps he ’ s just a clever strategist .
When the West responded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hybrid war in eastern Ukraine by increasing the Baltic states ’ defense against similar attacks , Putin instead took the action to Syria .
That means U.S. officials need to think like Putin , Xi , or North Korea ’ s Kim Jong Un .
Or why not think like Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro , who no doubt would like to sabotage the elections of a country he ’ d argue has tried to sabotage his government ?
And they need to consider what would achieve the most damage on Election Day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scenarios .
If the power grid in large swaths of the United States goes down on Election Day , people will focus all their attention on trying to figure out what ’ s wrong and how to get power back ; the act of voting will become an afterthought .
Russian hackers have been probing energy utilities ’ information technology systems , and , according to the cybersecurity firm Claroty , more than 70 percent of the control system vulnerabilities disclosed in the first half of 2020 can be exploited remotely .
Indeed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country ?
During NATO ’ s 2018 Trident Juncture exercise in Norway , Russian troops jammed GPS , which affected not just NATO troops but Norwegian airliners as well .
Pilots had to navigate manually .
“ Jamming isn ’ t very difficult , ” Mark Dickinson , the president of the Space Data Association , an international organization of satellite operators , told me after Russia ’ s jamming during Trident Juncture .
“ While spacecraft are usually well protected , with jamming you can disrupt nearby commercial GPS signals.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This year , many Americans will have to drive to new polling places , possibly quite far from their homes .
Imagine the effect on the election if GPS were jammed and voters wouldn ’ t find their way to the polling place .
GPS jammers are so cheap even Maduro ’ s Venezuela could afford them .
Or imagine what would happen if the internet went down on Election Day , even for just an hour .
Stalled electronic voting machines would only be the beginning .
Traffic lights would go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power companies , and government agencies would not be able to operate .
( This is almost precisely what happened to Ukraine during a Russian cyberattack in 2017 . )
Earlier this week , an apparently accidentally severed fiber-optic cable prevented Virginia residents from registering to vote .
Estonia , a determinedly high-tech nation that in 2005 became the world ’ s first country to hold nationwide elections over the internet , knows what harm hostile governments can do by targeting the internet .
Two years later the country was struck by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought down government agencies , banks , and news outlets and that in some cases went on for several weeks .
Today the country has not only more secure IT systems but also a cyber-defense league , where IT experts volunteer their time to keep the country safe .
The United States could learn from Estonia : It ’ s possible to maintain a vibrant democracy even when adversaries try to harm it , but that involves lots of citizens doing their part .
That part can also involve ordinary citizens identifying and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-appointed “ elves ” do .
Or ordinary citizens finding out in advance where to drive to cast their vote , in case GPS doesn ’ t work on the day .
National Guard forces supplemented by cyber-defense units , Estonian-style , would make the United States more resilient .
For this election it ’ s too late , but if America is going to protect itself against innovative adversaries it needs more cyber-defenders than those currently employed by the government .
“ The internet is built in such a way that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ centrally , ” Recorded Future ’ s co-founder and CTO , Staffan Truve , told me .
“ And because the internet is so decentralized , hunting would-be election interferers is a bit like whack-a-mole.
” Currently , firms that could make a difference often decide not to .
When Recorded Future recently identified IT infrastructure that was being used in disinformation campaigns , the IT provider opted not to shut the perpetrators down .
“ They prefer to protect the perpetrators ’ identity over protecting the public , ” Truve concluded .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ week it announced that it had disrupted a massive hacking operation that could have indirectly affected U.S. election infrastructure .
The software giant took down the servers behind a vast malware network known as Trickbot—but was only able to do so after gaining permission from a federal court to disable the IP addresses associated with Trickbot ’ s servers .
But there ’ s hope .
“ California is full of bright people , ” Truve said .
“ The tech sector could do a lot more to help keep elections secure .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ its old motto of ‘ Don ’ t be evil ’ [ since 2015 : ‘ Do the right thing ’ ] it could devote significant resources toward election security .
Google has the most information and the most compute power.
” The brightest tech minds of California and other states could act in the spirit of the U.S. Cyber Command ’ s “ defend forward ” strategy , where U.S. cyberwarriors take the fight to would-be attackers , often by signaling to them that they personally will suffer consequences if they attack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ visit Western countries or own property there , or facing criminal prosecution if venturing abroad is a significant price to pay for a freelance hacker and indeed for government officials .
I call this the “ horse head in the bed ” strategy after the scene in The Godfather , and , because it can be done without any offensive elements ( which are the prerogative of a country ’ s government ) , it seems a perfect mission for volunteer cyber-defenders .
Those bright people in California and beyond , along with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how America ’ s adversaries could cause the most harm .
If there ’ s internet chaos on Election Day , make sure you have cash and a radio at home ; in case of a traffic meltdown because the traffic lights aren ’ t working , resolve to be gentle with your fellow drivers , or vote early .
Plan for potential internet outages by bringing a book to the polling place – casting your vote may involve a considerable wait .
If you ’ re a cyber-expert , set Election Day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ name of democracy , and don ’ t chase in the usual places .
What if a string of schools or care homes were brought down by cyberattacks and scores of people sat out the election ?
It ’ s not certain that Russia , China , or any other country will attack American grids , GPS , or internet providers on Election Day .
In fact , it ’ s unlikely they ’ ll do so .
But keeping the country safe means jointly preparing even for unlikely scenarios .
Armed forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such wars are just around the corner .
They ’ re not .
But by being prepared , the military signals to adversaries that there ’ s no point trying to attack .
Citizens should signal that , too , in their own areas of responsibility .
At the moment Americans can ’ t seem to agree on many issues , but keeping their elections safe should be among them .

“What if a foreign adversary hacks our secretary of states’ websites and changes the vote totals?” U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien asked earlier this month. Sure, the United States has never been hit by this sort of election interference before. But the art of keeping a country safe is the art of anticipating what the enemy might do next. As both Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping have demonstrated, America’s rivals are innovative. Americans, with an election around the corner and at risk in known and unknown ways, need to do their part to keep the country safe—by thinking like the enemy. That means volunteering to fight cyberintruders and preparing for an Election Day that could feature power cuts and GPS jamming.
“What if a foreign adversary hacks our secretary of states’ websites and changes the vote totals?” U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien asked earlier this month. Sure, the United States has never been hit by this sort of election interference before. But the art of keeping a country safe is the art of anticipating what the enemy might do next. As both Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping have demonstrated, America’s rivals are innovative. Americans, with an election around the corner and at risk in known and unknown ways, need to do their part to keep the country safe—by thinking like the enemy. That means volunteering to fight cyberintruders and preparing for an Election Day that could feature power cuts and GPS jamming.
O’Brien is far from alone in fretting about the harm assorted adversaries can cause U.S. democracy by interfering in this most fraught of elections. Last month, FBI Director Christopher Wray told U.S. lawmakers that Russia was generating a “steady drumbeat of misinformation” aimed at discrediting Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and the election itself, and in August William Evanina, the director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, warned that Russia, China, and Iran were all trying to interfere with the election—China mostly to denigrate Trump, Russia to denigrate Biden, and Iran to discredit the elections altogether. Facebook has already removed a few accounts used to spread Russian fake news.
But now the public is acquainted with disinformation and interference with election infrastructure, and wary of it. In a January NPR poll, 41 percent of Americans said the United States was not prepared to keep the November elections safe and secure. But what if America’s rivals don’t focus on their old tools in this election? Recorded Future, a cybersecurity firm that has received funding from both Google Ventures and the CIA’s investment arm, In-Q-Tel, noted last month that there have been no “observable Russian state-sponsored hack-and-leak operations” this year.
In November 2019, however, Russian operatives hacked Burisma, the Ukrainian firm with which the Democratic nominee’s son Hunter Biden is associated. Then, on Wednesday, the New York Post—a U.S. tabloid—published an exposé of Hunter’s alleged contacts with Burisma that the paper said was based on emails found on a laptop belonging to Hunter that had been dropped off for repair in a Delaware shop and apparently shared with Trump confidant Rudy Giuliani. The details and indeed the veracity of the story remain murky and Twitter and Facebook have already restricted its distribution on their platforms.
Constant fake news and election-infrastructure hacking may, in fact, just be the white noise that numbs people’s attention. “Attack [the enemy] where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected,” advised Sun Tzu in The Art of War. Though the Chinese war manual was published in the 5th century BC, generations of Western and Asian leaders alike have been devouring Sun Tzu’s wisdom ever since. Putin seems a devoted disciple of Sun Tzu, or perhaps he’s just a clever strategist. When the West responded to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and hybrid war in eastern Ukraine by increasing the Baltic states’ defense against similar attacks, Putin instead took the action to Syria.
That means U.S. officials need to think like Putin, Xi, or North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Or why not think like Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who no doubt would like to sabotage the elections of a country he’d argue has tried to sabotage his government? And they need to consider what would achieve the most damage on Election Day. There are a number of terrifying scenarios.
If the power grid in large swaths of the United States goes down on Election Day, people will focus all their attention on trying to figure out what’s wrong and how to get power back; the act of voting will become an afterthought. Russian hackers have been probing energy utilities’ information technology systems, and, according to the cybersecurity firm Claroty, more than 70 percent of the control system vulnerabilities disclosed in the first half of 2020 can be exploited remotely.
Indeed, why not mess with GPS systems across the country? During NATO’s 2018 Trident Juncture exercise in Norway, Russian troops jammed GPS, which affected not just NATO troops but Norwegian airliners as well. Pilots had to navigate manually. “Jamming isn’t very difficult,” Mark Dickinson, the president of the Space Data Association, an international organization of satellite operators, told me after Russia’s jamming during Trident Juncture. “While spacecraft are usually well protected, with jamming you can disrupt nearby commercial GPS signals.”
Such jamming could hit your smartphone. This year, many Americans will have to drive to new polling places, possibly quite far from their homes. Imagine the effect on the election if GPS were jammed and voters wouldn’t find their way to the polling place. GPS jammers are so cheap even Maduro’s Venezuela could afford them.
Or imagine what would happen if the internet went down on Election Day, even for just an hour. Stalled electronic voting machines would only be the beginning. Traffic lights would go down, and banks, airports, power companies, and government agencies would not be able to operate. (This is almost precisely what happened to Ukraine during a Russian cyberattack in 2017.) Earlier this week, an apparently accidentally severed fiber-optic cable prevented Virginia residents from registering to vote.
Estonia, a determinedly high-tech nation that in 2005 became the world’s first country to hold nationwide elections over the internet, knows what harm hostile governments can do by targeting the internet. Two years later the country was struck by a massive cyberattack subsequently traced to Russia that brought down government agencies, banks, and news outlets and that in some cases went on for several weeks. Today the country has not only more secure IT systems but also a cyber-defense league, where IT experts volunteer their time to keep the country safe.
The United States could learn from Estonia: It’s possible to maintain a vibrant democracy even when adversaries try to harm it, but that involves lots of citizens doing their part. That part can also involve ordinary citizens identifying and reporting trolls, as Lithuania’s self-appointed “elves” do. Or ordinary citizens finding out in advance where to drive to cast their vote, in case GPS doesn’t work on the day.
National Guard forces supplemented by cyber-defense units, Estonian-style, would make the United States more resilient. For this election it’s too late, but if America is going to protect itself against innovative adversaries it needs more cyber-defenders than those currently employed by the government. “The internet is built in such a way that it’s virtually impossible to control anything centrally,” Recorded Future’s co-founder and CTO, Staffan Truve, told me. “And because the internet is so decentralized, hunting would-be election interferers is a bit like whack-a-mole.”
Currently, firms that could make a difference often decide not to. When Recorded Future recently identified IT infrastructure that was being used in disinformation campaigns, the IT provider opted not to shut the perpetrators down. “They prefer to protect the perpetrators’ identity over protecting the public,” Truve concluded. Microsoft has had more success. This week it announced that it had disrupted a massive hacking operation that could have indirectly affected U.S. election infrastructure. The software giant took down the servers behind a vast malware network known as Trickbot—but was only able to do so after gaining permission from a federal court to disable the IP addresses associated with Trickbot’s servers.
But there’s hope. “California is full of bright people,” Truve said. “The tech sector could do a lot more to help keep elections secure. If Google wanted to live up to its old motto of ‘Don’t be evil’ [since 2015: ‘Do the right thing’] it could devote significant resources toward election security. Google has the most information and the most compute power.” The brightest tech minds of California and other states could act in the spirit of the U.S. Cyber Command’s “defend forward” strategy, where U.S. cyberwarriors take the fight to would-be attackers, often by signaling to them that they personally will suffer consequences if they attack.
Losing one’s right to visit Western countries or own property there, or facing criminal prosecution if venturing abroad is a significant price to pay for a freelance hacker and indeed for government officials. I call this the “horse head in the bed” strategy after the scene in The Godfather, and, because it can be done without any offensive elements (which are the prerogative of a country’s government), it seems a perfect mission for volunteer cyber-defenders.
Those bright people in California and beyond, along with the rest of us, should imagine how America’s adversaries could cause the most harm. If there’s internet chaos on Election Day, make sure you have cash and a radio at home; in case of a traffic meltdown because the traffic lights aren’t working, resolve to be gentle with your fellow drivers, or vote early. Plan for potential internet outages by bringing a book to the polling place – casting your vote may involve a considerable wait. If you’re a cyber-expert, set Election Day aside to chase would-be interferers in the name of democracy, and don’t chase in the usual places. What if a string of schools or care homes were brought down by cyberattacks and scores of people sat out the election?
It’s not certain that Russia, China, or any other country will attack American grids, GPS, or internet providers on Election Day. In fact, it’s unlikely they’ll do so. But keeping the country safe means jointly preparing even for unlikely scenarios. Armed forces don’t prepare for wars because such wars are just around the corner. They’re not. But by being prepared, the military signals to adversaries that there’s no point trying to attack. Citizens should signal that, too, in their own areas of responsibility. At the moment Americans can’t seem to agree on many issues, but keeping their elections safe should be among them.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-15--EU Leaders Meet as Coronavirus Cases Surge Across the Bloc

EU Leaders Meet as Coronavirus Cases Surge Across the Bloc Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : European leaders meet today in Brussels for a two-day summit , U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden host competing town hall meetings , and Thailand cracks down on dissent with an emergency decree .
Thanks to Dan Haverty for his excellent work writing this newsletter while my wife and I welcomed our new baby girl into the world .
As someone who is always awake before 6 a.m. , she has already become an avid reader of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The leaders of the 27 European Union member states meet today in Brussels to begin a two-day summit aimed at presenting a united front in trade talks with former member Great Britain as well as aligning on the coronavirus pandemic , climate change , and Africa policy .
Previously billed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the “ deadline ” for a deal to be reached between the two sides , today ’ s summit is unlikely to yield a concrete outcome .
A draft document from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says that progress on trade negotiations is “ still not sufficient.
” The deal ’ s not dead .
Following a phone call with Johnson last night , European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made clear that the deal was not yet dead .
“ The EU is working on a deal , but not at any price .
Conditions must be right , on fisheries , level-playing field and governance , ” she tweeted .
“ Still a lot of work ahead of us , ” she added .
German Finance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will eventually materialize , even if it takes until November to hammer out .
“ My experience is that sometimes in the last moment you will find a solution , ” he told Bloomberg .
Writing in Foreign Policy , Joseph de Weck explains why the focus on a deal might miss the bigger picture .
“ Regardless of the negotiations ’ outcome , the U.K. is already headed for a ‘ hard Brexit , ’ meaning a sharp break in relations with the EU .
No matter what , the British and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decoupling , ” he writes .
Europe ’ s second wave .
With coronavirus cases again surging across the European Union , today ’ s summit could be the last in-person meeting for some time .
New cases in the EU this week have averaged around 100,000 per day , a number that far outstrips the United States ( which has recorded about half as many daily cases ) .
The uptick has led to French President Emmanuel Macron to impose nighttime curfews in France ’ s major cities and declare the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time since July .
The price of fish .
Writing in Foreign Policy on October 6 , Laurence Blair explains why a deal on fisheries has proved to be an elusive catch in Brexit negotiations .
Reporting from the port town of Weymouth , Blair looks at the reasons—both rational and romantic—why fish have become such a slippery issue in trade talks .
A tale of two town halls .
U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden hold dueling televised town hall meetings today in the battleground states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin at 8 p.m. EST .
President Trump ’ s town hall will air live on NBC from Miami , his second campaign event of the day following an afternoon rally in Greenville , North Carolina .
Biden ’ s event will air live on ABC from Philadelphia .
The latest polling averages show Biden with a 7 point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania , and a narrower 2.7 point lead in Florida .
IMF and World Bank meetings .
Kristalina Georgieva , the director of the International Monetary Fund , and David @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bank , will deliver speeches to the plenary of the 2020 IMF/World Bank Group Annual Meetings .
The addresses come as the IMF recently revised its projection on global economic health upward from its June prediction of a 5.2 percent contraction to a slightly less steep 4.4 percent drop .
This year ’ s event is taking place entirely online due to coronavirus restrictions—a detail that a local Washington deer apparently failed to note .
Thai authorities crack down on protests .
Thai police cleared protesters from outside the office of Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this morning after the Thai government enacted an emergency decree banning gatherings of five or more people .
Tens of thousands had taken to the streets in recent days to call for both a new constitution and Prayuth ’ s removal amid unrest that began with student protests in August .
Two leaders of the protests—Arnon Nampa and Panupong Jadnok—have been arrested , according to the Thai Lawyers for Human Rights group .
Norway blames Russia for cyberattack .
Norwegian Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide blamed Russia for “ a concerted cyberattack ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system in August .
Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg said that her government was naming Russia publicly in order “ to give a clear message to the Russians that we do not accept this.
” The Russian embassy in Oslo has called the allegations “ unacceptable.
” China ’ s stock rebound .
China ’ s economy continues to show positive signs of recovery ahead of upcoming third quarter GDP results .
The value of stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have risen to record highs , totaling $ 10.08 trillion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beats the previous stock market record of $ 10.05 trillion set in June 2015 .
Champagne on ice .
Without much to celebrate in 2020 , France ’ s champagne makers have seen a steep decline in sales of the bubbly drink over the past year , with national supermarket sales down 25 percent compared to the previous year .
With fewer sales , bottles of champagne have begun piling up in cellars across the region .
In order to prevent an oversupply , producers have decided to cut down on the number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It was a difficult decision , but one that was taken together for the general interest and the future of Champagne , ” one winemaker told Euronews .
Berliner finger .
A public information campaign in Berlin has caused controversy over its direct message to those who dare to disobey the city ’ s coronavirus rules .
A new ad depicts a masked elderly woman , her middle finger raised to the camera , along with the caption “ A wagging finger for all without masks : we uphold the corona rules.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate and Visit Berlin , has come under fire from opposition politicians , with one calling it “ arrogant and offensive.
” The organizers are unfazed .
“ We wanted to use a language that suits the Berlin character and that underscores the dramatic pandemic situation—and that we managed , ” a Visit Berlin representative told The Guardian .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: European leaders meet today in Brussels for a two-day summit, U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden host competing town hall meetings, and Thailand cracks down on dissent with an emergency decree.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: European leaders meet today in Brussels for a two-day summit, U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden host competing town hall meetings, and Thailand cracks down on dissent with an emergency decree.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
EU Leaders Meet on Trade Deal as Coronavirus Surges
The leaders of the 27 European Union member states meet today in Brussels to begin a two-day summit aimed at presenting a united front in trade talks with former member Great Britain as well as aligning on the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, and Africa policy.
Previously billed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the “deadline” for a deal to be reached between the two sides, today’s summit is unlikely to yield a concrete outcome. A draft document from EU leaders, seen by Reuters, says that progress on trade negotiations is “still not sufficient.”
The deal’s not dead. Following a phone call with Johnson last night, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made clear that the deal was not yet dead. “The EU is working on a deal, but not at any price. Conditions must be right, on fisheries, level-playing field and governance,” she tweeted. “Still a lot of work ahead of us,” she added.
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is confident a deal will eventually materialize, even if it takes until November to hammer out. “My experience is that sometimes in the last moment you will find a solution,” he told Bloomberg.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Joseph de Weck explains why the focus on a deal might miss the bigger picture. “Regardless of the negotiations’ outcome, the U.K. is already headed for a ‘hard Brexit,’ meaning a sharp break in relations with the EU. No matter what, the British and European economies are in for a painful decoupling,” he writes.
Europe’s second wave. With coronavirus cases again surging across the European Union, today’s summit could be the last in-person meeting for some time. New cases in the EU this week have averaged around 100,000 per day, a number that far outstrips the United States (which has recorded about half as many daily cases). The uptick has led to French President Emmanuel Macron to impose nighttime curfews in France’s major cities and declare the country in a state of health emergency for the first time since July.
The price of fish. Writing in Foreign Policy on October 6, Laurence Blair explains why a deal on fisheries has proved to be an elusive catch in Brexit negotiations. Reporting from the port town of Weymouth, Blair looks at the reasons—both rational and romantic—why fish have become such a slippery issue in trade talks.
What We’re Following Today
A tale of two town halls. U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden hold dueling televised town hall meetings today in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania. Both events begin at 8 p.m. EST. President Trump’s town hall will air live on NBC from Miami, his second campaign event of the day following an afternoon rally in Greenville, North Carolina. Biden’s event will air live on ABC from Philadelphia. The latest polling averages show Biden with a 7 point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, and a narrower 2.7 point lead in Florida.
IMF and World Bank meetings. Kristalina Georgieva, the director of the International Monetary Fund, and David Malpass, the president of the World Bank, will deliver speeches to the plenary of the 2020 IMF/World Bank Group Annual Meetings. The addresses come as the IMF recently revised its projection on global economic health upward from its June prediction of a 5.2 percent contraction to a slightly less steep 4.4 percent drop.
This year’s event is taking place entirely online due to coronavirus restrictions—a detail that a local Washington deer apparently failed to note.
Thai authorities crack down on protests. Thai police cleared protesters from outside the office of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha in the early hours of this morning after the Thai government enacted an emergency decree banning gatherings of five or more people. Tens of thousands had taken to the streets in recent days to call for both a new constitution and Prayuth’s removal amid unrest that began with student protests in August. Two leaders of the protests—Arnon Nampa and Panupong Jadnok—have been arrested, according to the Thai Lawyers for Human Rights group.
Keep an Eye On Edinburxit? Support for Scottish independence is at its highest-ever level, according to a new Ipsos MORI poll. Among those who had made up their minds, the poll found that 58 percent of respondents would vote yes in an independence referendum, with 42 percent against. (Accounting for undecided voters, the overall figures dropped to 55 percent for independence, and 39 percent against.) The poll also highlighted the contrast in public opinion toward Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson: Two-thirds of Scots view Sturgeon positively, whereas only about one in five Scots have a positive view of Johnson.
Norway blames Russia for cyberattack. Norwegian Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide blamed Russia for “a concerted cyberattack” on the national parliament’s email system in August. Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg said that her government was naming Russia publicly in order “to give a clear message to the Russians that we do not accept this.” The Russian embassy in Oslo has called the allegations “unacceptable.”
China’s stock rebound. China’s economy continues to show positive signs of recovery ahead of upcoming third quarter GDP results. The value of stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have risen to record highs, totaling $10.08 trillion, according to Bloomberg data. The figure beats the previous stock market record of $10.05 trillion set in June 2015.
Odds and Ends
Champagne on ice. Without much to celebrate in 2020, France’s champagne makers have seen a steep decline in sales of the bubbly drink over the past year, with national supermarket sales down 25 percent compared to the previous year. With fewer sales, bottles of champagne have begun piling up in cellars across the region. In order to prevent an oversupply, producers have decided to cut down on the number of grapes harvested this year. “It was a difficult decision, but one that was taken together for the general interest and the future of Champagne,” one winemaker told Euronews.
Berliner finger. A public information campaign in Berlin has caused controversy over its direct message to those who dare to disobey the city’s coronavirus rules. A new ad depicts a masked elderly woman, her middle finger raised to the camera, along with the caption “A wagging finger for all without masks: we uphold the corona rules.” The campaign, run by the Berlin Senate and Visit Berlin, has come under fire from opposition politicians, with one calling it “arrogant and offensive.”
The organizers are unfazed. “We wanted to use a language that suits the Berlin character and that underscores the dramatic pandemic situation—and that we managed,” a Visit Berlin representative told The Guardian.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-10-15--Thai Protesters Defy New State of Emergency

BANGKOK—A little over 12 hours after Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha declared a severe state of emergency on Thursday to quell the peaceful protests in Bangkok , protesters were pushing police out of Ratchaprasong intersection , in the heart of the city .
The protests would last into the night , with crowds of demonstrators hemmed in by luxury shopping malls as student-led protesters gave a decisive and defiant rebuke to the government .
After a raucous march on Wednesday evening to Government House , the seat of the Thai government , Thai citizens woke to find protesters forced off government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and protest leaders arrested—further galvanizing the protesters .
“ It appears that various groups of people have persuaded , incited , and carried out a public gathering , which is against the Public Assembly Act , in Bangkok , creating turbulence , chaos , and disorder for people , ” Prayuth said on Thursday , announcing the state of emergency with authority granted under the 2005 emergency powers decree .
The announcement drew fire from human rights groups .
Among the protesters ’ demands are Prayuth ’ s resignation , drafting of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the monarchy .
Prayuth , who took power in a 2014 coup , has maintained his grip with the aid of the military .
Aside from the nearly daily protests around the country from university students , high schoolers , and dedicated protesters , the protesters are attempting to resurrect the history of Thailand ’ s democratic legacy .
The result has been a battle of wills between the protesters and the Thai authorities .
Three weeks ago , protests culminated in the erection of a plaque to replace the one that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s transition from absolute monarchy in 1932 .
The new pro-democracy plaque was removed by authorities overnight .
Similarly , months of protest and debate to amend the constitution met with disappointment when the government responded by delaying its decision until November .
After a brief scuffle with police to take over Ratchadamri Road under the BTS station in central Bangkok , the protests remained peaceful into the evening , when protesters tore open the security gate at Ratchaprasong to cheers from an electrified crowd .
After 9:30 p.m. , police vehicles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turned back .
“ It is an exciting day , yes ?
This is very important for all Thai people , ” said Tak , 56 , taking a selfie with the broken BTS gate .
“ Thai people have been coming together .
We wait so long.
” Via loudspeaker , the police read out the emergency decree from Prayuth to boos , jeers , and three-finger salutes , a gesture taken from the Hunger Games films that has become a symbol of Thailand ’ s pro-democracy struggle .
The protest leaders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Penguin ” Chiwarak , 22 , were arrested on Thursday , and the remaining Free Youth student protest leaders reasserted in a statement that protesting is a human right .
Anon tweeted Thursday that he was being taken by helicopter to Chiang Mai without a lawyer .
“ Please release my friends , ” said a protester choosing to be referred to as Ashley on Thursday , echoing the “ Free Our Friends ” chant of the evening and holding an anti-SLAPP sign .
“ In Thailand , we have this problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They arrested 21 of our friends at 4 a.m. last night.
” Along with Anon and Parit , the activists Prasit Krutharot , Panusaya Sithijirawattanakul , and Nutchanon Pairoj were arrested .
Parit , Panusaya , and Nutchanon have been denied bail .
Protests in northern Chiang Mai were held in solidarity as well on Thursday .
With so many of the protest leaders detained , the pro-democracy protests on Thursday were led by the lesser-known protester Panupong Jadnok , or Mike Rayong .
Rather than the stage lights and high-profile rappers who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Thursday ’ s ad hoc gathering would see Panupong yelling into a sound system in the back of a pickup truck to an ever increasing crowd .
The government ’ s state of emergency followed a day of tense protests at the Democracy Monument , a key site in Bangkok ’ s history of protest .
Only a few thousand protesters made it to the Democracy Monument at noon on Wednesday , dwarfed by roads lined with yellow-clad pro-royalists trucked in on military vehicles , double-decker tourist buses , and even garbage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ More than 10,000 pro-democracy protesters would eventually turn out to march on Government House that evening , a motley crew of students , older protesters , and the beleaguered red shirts—older protesters who originally rallied in 2010 against a military coup four years earlier .
By the end of the day , the protesters had broken through a spate of police barricades to Government House , and riot police dispersed stragglers in the early hours .
On Thursday , Bangkok woke to its second state of emergency , following the COVID-19 emergency decree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state of emergency bans gatherings of five or more as well as publishing news or online information that could create fear or affect national security .
As of Thursday , True Visions , the Thai broadcaster owned by the Charoen Pokphand group—Thailand ’ s largest private company—has been censoring CNN coverage of the protests .
The government received the justification it needed to crack down on the largely peaceful nationwide protests when the protesters blocked a motorcade carrying members of King Maha Vajiralongkorn ’ s family , mentioned directly when Prayuth declared the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government is to use the royals to shield itself against criticism , it has previously been reticent to use the monarchy as a weapon , especially in line with Section 112 of the Criminal Code , also known as the lèse-majesté law .
The government is loath to use Section 112 as it brings a great deal of criticism , and even the king has condemned its use on civilians , with the authorities relying instead on charges of sedition and what are termed “ computer crimes , ” usually involving social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taboo issue of the royal family .
But in the last few months , protests have included calls for reform of the monarchy and have not shied away from criticizing the king , who is far less popular than his father , Bhumibol Adulyadej , who died in 2016 .
Protesters accuse him of living a life of luxury in Germany , rather than spending time in his own country , an issue that has become especially acute during the pandemic .
Protesters gave the three-finger salute as they slowed the motorcade of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fourth wife , and the police have issued arrest warrants for those involved in the incident .
Pheu Thai , a prominent opposition party , issued a statement condemning the emergency decree but also denied earlier reports that it was mobilizing supporters .
Parliament members of Move Forward , another opposition party , also condemned the move .
“ The government must release the demonstrators , immediately lift the state of emergency , and stop harassing civilians , ” said Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit , the founder of the Progressive Movement and former leader of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disbanded by Prayuth ’ s government in its wide-ranging opposition lawfare this year .
Without elections , Prayuth ’ s resignation , or a rewriting of the constitution , there is no clear way forward for either the military-controlled government or the protesters .
“ They ignore us for so long , ” said one protester standing arm in arm on Ratchadamri .
“ Can they ignore this ?
”

BANGKOK—A little over 12 hours after Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha declared a severe state of emergency on Thursday to quell the peaceful protests in Bangkok, protesters were pushing police out of Ratchaprasong intersection, in the heart of the city. The protests would last into the night, with crowds of demonstrators hemmed in by luxury shopping malls as student-led protesters gave a decisive and defiant rebuke to the government.
BANGKOK—A little over 12 hours after Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha declared a severe state of emergency on Thursday to quell the peaceful protests in Bangkok, protesters were pushing police out of Ratchaprasong intersection, in the heart of the city. The protests would last into the night, with crowds of demonstrators hemmed in by luxury shopping malls as student-led protesters gave a decisive and defiant rebuke to the government.
After a raucous march on Wednesday evening to Government House, the seat of the Thai government, Thai citizens woke to find protesters forced off government grounds, a state of emergency declared, and protest leaders arrested—further galvanizing the protesters.
“It appears that various groups of people have persuaded, incited, and carried out a public gathering, which is against the Public Assembly Act, in Bangkok, creating turbulence, chaos, and disorder for people,” Prayuth said on Thursday, announcing the state of emergency with authority granted under the 2005 emergency powers decree. The announcement drew fire from human rights groups.
Among the protesters’ demands are Prayuth’s resignation, drafting of a new constitution, and the reform of the monarchy. Prayuth, who took power in a 2014 coup, has maintained his grip with the aid of the military.
Aside from the nearly daily protests around the country from university students, high schoolers, and dedicated protesters, the protesters are attempting to resurrect the history of Thailand’s democratic legacy. The result has been a battle of wills between the protesters and the Thai authorities.
Three weeks ago, protests culminated in the erection of a plaque to replace the one that disappeared in 2017, which commemorated Thailand’s transition from absolute monarchy in 1932. The new pro-democracy plaque was removed by authorities overnight. Similarly, months of protest and debate to amend the constitution met with disappointment when the government responded by delaying its decision until November.
After a brief scuffle with police to take over Ratchadamri Road under the BTS station in central Bangkok, the protests remained peaceful into the evening, when protesters tore open the security gate at Ratchaprasong to cheers from an electrified crowd. After 9:30 p.m., police vehicles attempted to enter the area but were turned back.
“It is an exciting day, yes? This is very important for all Thai people,” said Tak, 56, taking a selfie with the broken BTS gate. “Thai people have been coming together. We wait so long.”
Via loudspeaker, the police read out the emergency decree from Prayuth to boos, jeers, and three-finger salutes, a gesture taken from the Hunger Games films that has become a symbol of Thailand’s pro-democracy struggle.
The protest leaders Anon Nampa, 36, and Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak, 22, were arrested on Thursday, and the remaining Free Youth student protest leaders reasserted in a statement that protesting is a human right. Anon tweeted Thursday that he was being taken by helicopter to Chiang Mai without a lawyer.
“Please release my friends,” said a protester choosing to be referred to as Ashley on Thursday, echoing the “Free Our Friends” chant of the evening and holding an anti-SLAPP sign. “In Thailand, we have this problem not being able to speak. … They arrested 21 of our friends at 4 a.m. last night.”
Along with Anon and Parit, the activists Prasit Krutharot, Panusaya Sithijirawattanakul, and Nutchanon Pairoj were arrested. Parit, Panusaya, and Nutchanon have been denied bail. Protests in northern Chiang Mai were held in solidarity as well on Thursday.
With so many of the protest leaders detained, the pro-democracy protests on Thursday were led by the lesser-known protester Panupong Jadnok, or Mike Rayong. Rather than the stage lights and high-profile rappers who were a feature of the August protests, Thursday’s ad hoc gathering would see Panupong yelling into a sound system in the back of a pickup truck to an ever increasing crowd.
The government’s state of emergency followed a day of tense protests at the Democracy Monument, a key site in Bangkok’s history of protest. Only a few thousand protesters made it to the Democracy Monument at noon on Wednesday, dwarfed by roads lined with yellow-clad pro-royalists trucked in on military vehicles, double-decker tourist buses, and even garbage trucks in a show of force.
More than 10,000 pro-democracy protesters would eventually turn out to march on Government House that evening, a motley crew of students, older protesters, and the beleaguered red shirts—older protesters who originally rallied in 2010 against a military coup four years earlier.
By the end of the day, the protesters had broken through a spate of police barricades to Government House, and riot police dispersed stragglers in the early hours. On Thursday, Bangkok woke to its second state of emergency, following the COVID-19 emergency decree that began in March.
The new state of emergency bans gatherings of five or more as well as publishing news or online information that could create fear or affect national security. As of Thursday, True Visions, the Thai broadcaster owned by the Charoen Pokphand group—Thailand’s largest private company—has been censoring CNN coverage of the protests.
The government received the justification it needed to crack down on the largely peaceful nationwide protests when the protesters blocked a motorcade carrying members of King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s family, mentioned directly when Prayuth declared the state of emergency.
Intent as the government is to use the royals to shield itself against criticism, it has previously been reticent to use the monarchy as a weapon, especially in line with Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lèse-majesté law. The government is loath to use Section 112 as it brings a great deal of criticism, and even the king has condemned its use on civilians, with the authorities relying instead on charges of sedition and what are termed “computer crimes,” usually involving social media posts.
Thai protests usually avoid the taboo issue of the royal family. But in the last few months, protests have included calls for reform of the monarchy and have not shied away from criticizing the king, who is far less popular than his father, Bhumibol Adulyadej, who died in 2016. Protesters accuse him of living a life of luxury in Germany, rather than spending time in his own country, an issue that has become especially acute during the pandemic. Protesters gave the three-finger salute as they slowed the motorcade of Queen Suthida, the king’s fourth wife, and the police have issued arrest warrants for those involved in the incident.
Pheu Thai, a prominent opposition party, issued a statement condemning the emergency decree but also denied earlier reports that it was mobilizing supporters. Parliament members of Move Forward, another opposition party, also condemned the move.
“The government must release the demonstrators, immediately lift the state of emergency, and stop harassing civilians,” said Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the founder of the Progressive Movement and former leader of the Future Forward Party, which was disbanded by Prayuth’s government in its wide-ranging opposition lawfare this year.
Without elections, Prayuth’s resignation, or a rewriting of the constitution, there is no clear way forward for either the military-controlled government or the protesters.
“They ignore us for so long,” said one protester standing arm in arm on Ratchadamri. “Can they ignore this?”