foreignpolicy--2020-05-04--Mafia, Poverty, and the Pandemic

Mafia, Poverty, and the Pandemic

CATANIA , Italy—In the nine years Salvatore Pappalardo spent as a charity worker in the Sicilian port city of Catania , he never saw as much desperation as he has during the past two months .
“ I ’ ve noticed an exponential increase in Italian beneficiaries for our meal services , ” said Pappalardo , who works as a coordinator at Caritas Diocesana , a national church-run charity .
“ Until earlier this year , we would mostly assist marginalized migrants , but now we help about 200 Italians a day .
Many feel embarrassed to come , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choice.
” On March 9 , Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte imposed a nationwide quarantine in an attempt to fight Europe ’ s worst coronavirus outbreak , which to this date has killed almost 29,000 people and infected more than 210,000 .
Nonessential work has ground to a halt , and citizens can leave the house only for grocery shopping or emergencies—which require a self-declaration form attesting to their intended movements .
During the early lockdown days , videos of Italians coordinating flash mobs to lift one another ’ s spirits portrayed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initial wave of cheering from balconies and terraces across the country stopped weeks ago in southern Italy , where hope has given way to social unrest .
“ Hunger and poverty are scarier than the virus , ” Pappalardo explained , as he prepared one of the 500 meal packages that his association delivers every day to people in need .
The health care emergency so far has mainly impacted Italy ’ s northern regions .
The south , with far fewer coronavirus deaths , seems to have avoided the worst of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early lockdown for the south meant sparing its already fragile health care system from a similar breaking point to that of the Lombardy region .
But for those like Rossella , a 46-year-old mother of three who heavily relies on food and clothing donations from Caritas and asked that her real name not be used for security reasons , the lockdown is responsible for hardship she can ill afford .
“ I lost my already precarious job as house cleaner .
My husband scraped by with daily gigs , he ’ d work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but now he ’ s stuck at home .
Will the government pay me for the months we lost our income ?
I don ’ t think so , ” she said .
According to Italy ’ s National Institute of Statistics , there are more than 3.5 million so-called invisible workers employed under the table in Italy and who rely on daily gigs , like Rossella and her husband .
They are the ones hardest hit by the lockdown , with no access to financial relief plans because they work off the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those employed in legal labor .
In the five regions south of Rome , plus two islands , the economic situation was already worrying even before the virus came , with unemployment rates hitting 17 percent and as high as 50 percent for youth—compared with 27 percent youth unemployment nationwide and under 10 percent general unemployment ( with unemployment in the north hitting just 6 percent ) .
That economic north-south divide is a result of more than a century of organized crime ’ s influence in the southern regions , where a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keeping the south poorer , particularly in the health care field .
Now the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that about 27 percent of Italians are at risk of poverty as a result of work restrictions during the lockdown , foreshadowing Italy ’ s worst economic crisis since World War II .
While the report doesn ’ t break its figures down regionally , the south would doubtless be the hardest hit .
So far the central government has put together a $ 4.3 billion solidarity fund to be distributed across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s larger economic relief package , which totals $ 435 billion .
The cities will manage the funds independently , determining how to parse it out to those in need over the next three months .
Cities have also been handed an extra $ 440 million in food stamps after a number of mayors in the south labeled the solidarity fund as insufficient .
But those funds have taken longer than expected to be distributed , giving opportunity for organized crime groups , which have begun providing much-needed services and gaining legitimacy in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mafia has stepped in as a provider of food parcels and loans .
In Palermo , the brother of a mafia boss was reportedly seen distributing food packages in the city ’ s poorest neighborhood , an organized crime stronghold .
Palermo ’ s mayor , Leoluca Orlando , has warned that the mafias are ready to “ exploit the desperation of the new poor from coronavirus ” and sent more police to monitor the areas most at risk—but it has long been difficult for authorities to penetrate and control areas in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is a common practice for the mafia in Sicily to offer assistance during times of crises , and there have been similar cases , particularly during the 2008 economic crisis , according to Federico Varese , a professor of criminology at the University of Oxford .
“ [ Mafia assistance ] is not a practice limited to Italy only .
Such episodes are a reminder that some organized crime groups seek a precious , intangible currency during a crisis , namely legitimacy and popular support , ” Varese said .
Because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many people have been confronted with an urgent need of cash in order to survive .
In this context , Varese warns that mafias seize the opportunity , offering support to desperate people .
Later , they will ask to be paid back “ in ways that will make people accomplices of organized crime.
” Adding to the looming threat of organized crime taking advantage of the situation , there have also been signals of social unrest .
Since March 25 , a Facebook group called “ National Revolution ” has been encouraging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In Bari , the capital of the Apulia region , a video of a desperate woman demanding money outside a bank went viral ; on March 27 , around 15 people stormed a supermarket in Palermo , refusing to pay for their food and soliciting the mayor to provide immediate solutions .
“ We are experiencing a sudden 10 percent increase of unemployment in just these two months of lockdown .
Those are very worrying statistics because it means that even people who enjoyed a certain degree of wealth are now becoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Freelance tourist guides , [ bed-and-breakfast ] owners , sports trainers … these are the people that need financial support the most , who need immediate liquidity to keep themselves afloat.
” As the mayor of one of the south ’ s biggest cities and one of the most economically impacted—where more than 50,000 people were already without an income before the virus hit—Orlando has been trying to prevent mafia networks from luring in desperate unemployed residents .
In recent weeks , his municipality began distributing 12,000 prepaid food cards ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 110 euros ) to those most at risk , and the city is going to inject more cash to help locals pay rent and bills .
Similarly , Vincenzo De Luca , the president of the region of Campania , has prepared a billion-euro relief package for the thousands of informal workers , hoping this will also help identify illegal businesses .
But for some Palermo locals , the path ahead is still long and uncertain .
“ I have lost at least 5,000 euros [ $ 5,500 ] in wasted products , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not suspended , ” said Salvatore Cappello , 64 , the owner of one of Palermo ’ s historic pastry shops .
The shop employed two dozen workers until early March .
All have had to be laid off .
On May 4 , the government will begin easing restrictions , allowing family visits and the reopening of production businesses .
But the future for small businesses like Capello ’ s remains murky .
“ There ’ s so much fear and uncertainty for many of us .
… For now I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Italian government gave me and my personal savings , ” Cappello said .
“ But if I realize the damage was too heavy , I ’ ve also been considering closing my business.
” In 2009 , about 76,000 shops were operating in Sicily , a number that , in 2019 , had already dropped to 69,000 .
With the new crisis expected to peak in the summer , thousands more will shut down .
Currently , the central government ’ s decision to postpone to June 1 the reopening of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has created a schism between Rome and the south , where local governors feel ready for a gradual , but quicker , reopening of their cities to avoid economic disaster .
From his office in Palermo , Orlando says that if northern Italy offered lessons to the world on how to manage the pandemic , southern Italy will represent a case study for other nations on how to face economic recovery and tame organized crime infiltrations .
“ The fact that Palermo has fought against the mafia for decades , I see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know how to fight back .
We just need to be as quick as possible , and we ’ ll get through this , too .
”

CATANIA, Italy—In the nine years Salvatore Pappalardo spent as a charity worker in the Sicilian port city of Catania, he never saw as much desperation as he has during the past two months.
CATANIA, Italy—In the nine years Salvatore Pappalardo spent as a charity worker in the Sicilian port city of Catania, he never saw as much desperation as he has during the past two months.
“I’ve noticed an exponential increase in Italian beneficiaries for our meal services,” said Pappalardo, who works as a coordinator at Caritas Diocesana, a national church-run charity. “Until earlier this year, we would mostly assist marginalized migrants, but now we help about 200 Italians a day. Many feel embarrassed to come, but they tell me they have no other choice.”
On March 9, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte imposed a nationwide quarantine in an attempt to fight Europe’s worst coronavirus outbreak, which to this date has killed almost 29,000 people and infected more than 210,000. Nonessential work has ground to a halt, and citizens can leave the house only for grocery shopping or emergencies—which require a self-declaration form attesting to their intended movements.
During the early lockdown days, videos of Italians coordinating flash mobs to lift one another’s spirits portrayed a national image of resilience. But the initial wave of cheering from balconies and terraces across the country stopped weeks ago in southern Italy, where hope has given way to social unrest.
“Hunger and poverty are scarier than the virus,” Pappalardo explained, as he prepared one of the 500 meal packages that his association delivers every day to people in need.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
The health care emergency so far has mainly impacted Italy’s northern regions. The south, with far fewer coronavirus deaths, seems to have avoided the worst of the pandemic. According to Conte, an early lockdown for the south meant sparing its already fragile health care system from a similar breaking point to that of the Lombardy region. But for those like Rossella, a 46-year-old mother of three who heavily relies on food and clothing donations from Caritas and asked that her real name not be used for security reasons, the lockdown is responsible for hardship she can ill afford.
“I lost my already precarious job as house cleaner. My husband scraped by with daily gigs, he’d work where and when he was needed, but now he’s stuck at home. Will the government pay me for the months we lost our income? I don’t think so,” she said.
According to Italy’s National Institute of Statistics, there are more than 3.5 million so-called invisible workers employed under the table in Italy and who rely on daily gigs, like Rossella and her husband. They are the ones hardest hit by the lockdown, with no access to financial relief plans because they work off the books, while funds are dispensed to those employed in legal labor.
In the five regions south of Rome, plus two islands, the economic situation was already worrying even before the virus came, with unemployment rates hitting 17 percent and as high as 50 percent for youth—compared with 27 percent youth unemployment nationwide and under 10 percent general unemployment (with unemployment in the north hitting just 6 percent).
That economic north-south divide is a result of more than a century of organized crime’s influence in the southern regions, where a consolidated system of political corruption contributed in keeping the south poorer, particularly in the health care field. Now the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that about 27 percent of Italians are at risk of poverty as a result of work restrictions during the lockdown, foreshadowing Italy’s worst economic crisis since World War II. While the report doesn’t break its figures down regionally, the south would doubtless be the hardest hit.
So far the central government has put together a $4.3 billion solidarity fund to be distributed across hundreds of municipalities— part of Italy’s larger economic relief package, which totals $435 billion. The cities will manage the funds independently, determining how to parse it out to those in need over the next three months. Cities have also been handed an extra $440 million in food stamps after a number of mayors in the south labeled the solidarity fund as insufficient.
But those funds have taken longer than expected to be distributed, giving opportunity for organized crime groups, which have begun providing much-needed services and gaining legitimacy in the process. In Naples, the mafia has stepped in as a provider of food parcels and loans. In Palermo, the brother of a mafia boss was reportedly seen distributing food packages in the city’s poorest neighborhood, an organized crime stronghold. Palermo’s mayor, Leoluca Orlando, has warned that the mafias are ready to “exploit the desperation of the new poor from coronavirus” and sent more police to monitor the areas most at risk—but it has long been difficult for authorities to penetrate and control areas in the outskirts that are controlled by criminal groups.
It is a common practice for the mafia in Sicily to offer assistance during times of crises, and there have been similar cases, particularly during the 2008 economic crisis, according to Federico Varese, a professor of criminology at the University of Oxford. “[Mafia assistance] is not a practice limited to Italy only. Such episodes are a reminder that some organized crime groups seek a precious, intangible currency during a crisis, namely legitimacy and popular support,” Varese said.
Because of the slowness of local bureaucracy, many people have been confronted with an urgent need of cash in order to survive. In this context, Varese warns that mafias seize the opportunity, offering support to desperate people. Later, they will ask to be paid back “in ways that will make people accomplices of organized crime.”
Adding to the looming threat of organized crime taking advantage of the situation, there have also been signals of social unrest. Since March 25, a Facebook group called “National Revolution” has been encouraging its 2,700 members to loot local supermarkets. In Bari, the capital of the Apulia region, a video of a desperate woman demanding money outside a bank went viral; on March 27, around 15 people stormed a supermarket in Palermo, refusing to pay for their food and soliciting the mayor to provide immediate solutions.
“We are experiencing a sudden 10 percent increase of unemployment in just these two months of lockdown. Those are very worrying statistics because it means that even people who enjoyed a certain degree of wealth are now becoming poor,” Orlando told Foreign Policy.
“Freelance tourist guides, [bed-and-breakfast] owners, sports trainers … these are the people that need financial support the most, who need immediate liquidity to keep themselves afloat.”
As the mayor of one of the south’s biggest cities and one of the most economically impacted—where more than 50,000 people were already without an income before the virus hit—Orlando has been trying to prevent mafia networks from luring in desperate unemployed residents. In recent weeks, his municipality began distributing 12,000 prepaid food cards (a weekly value of between 60 and 110 euros) to those most at risk, and the city is going to inject more cash to help locals pay rent and bills.
Similarly, Vincenzo De Luca, the president of the region of Campania, has prepared a billion-euro relief package for the thousands of informal workers, hoping this will also help identify illegal businesses.
But for some Palermo locals, the path ahead is still long and uncertain. “I have lost at least 5,000 euros [$5,500] in wasted products, even more for rent, which was not suspended,” said Salvatore Cappello, 64, the owner of one of Palermo’s historic pastry shops. The shop employed two dozen workers until early March. All have had to be laid off. On May 4, the government will begin easing restrictions, allowing family visits and the reopening of production businesses. But the future for small businesses like Capello’s remains murky.
“There’s so much fear and uncertainty for many of us. … For now I’ve been living with the 600 euros the Italian government gave me and my personal savings,” Cappello said. “But if I realize the damage was too heavy, I’ve also been considering closing my business.”
In 2009, about 76,000 shops were operating in Sicily, a number that, in 2019, had already dropped to 69,000. With the new crisis expected to peak in the summer, thousands more will shut down.
Currently, the central government’s decision to postpone to June 1 the reopening of all nonproductive businesses, including bars and restaurants, has created a schism between Rome and the south, where local governors feel ready for a gradual, but quicker, reopening of their cities to avoid economic disaster.
From his office in Palermo, Orlando says that if northern Italy offered lessons to the world on how to manage the pandemic, southern Italy will represent a case study for other nations on how to face economic recovery and tame organized crime infiltrations.
“The fact that Palermo has fought against the mafia for decades, I see it as an advantage because we already know how to fight back. We just need to be as quick as possible, and we’ll get through this, too.”


foreignpolicy--2020-05-04--Lessons From the Malaysian-American-Chinese-Australian-Vietnamese Naval Standoff

On the face of it , the recent standoff along Malaysia ’ s Borneo coast was a robust response by the U.S. Navy to some cynically timed Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea , offering reassurance to wavering Southeast Asian countries that Washington still has their back in the midst of a global pandemic .
Unfortunately , few in the region are likely to view it that way .
For several days , starting on April 20 , the USS America—a small carrier equipped with a handful of F-35 jets , helicopters , and an embarked force of U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bunker Hill and USS Barry , in close proximity to a Chinese survey ship , Haiyang Dizhi 8 , and its accompanying screen of coast guard vessels and fishing boats , the latter widely assumed to be part of China ’ s maritime militia .
Two Chinese navy destroyers and a frigate subsequently arrived on the scene .
The target of China ’ s motley but highly coordinated maritime force was the West Capella , a drillship working under charter to Petronas , Malaysia ’ s state-owned energy company .
It has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ) , off the state of Sarawak , since late 2019 .
Beijing ’ s apparent aim was to intimidate and disrupt Malaysia ’ s exploration activity , coercing it and other Southeast Asian littoral states into accepting joint development with China .
Beijing has repeatedly dispatched such expeditions , encroaching steadily southward , despite the fact that China has no basis under international law from which to claim jurisdiction , its nine-dash line long since universally discredited .
Malaysia deployed what ships were available @ @ @ @ @ @ @ navy .
A Vietnamese vessel also joined the fray , somewhat ambivalently , because Hanoi disputes its maritime boundary with Malaysia yet finds common cause with Kuala Lumpur as a fellow victim of China ’ s intimidatory tactics .
The Chinese flotilla had earlier passed through Vietnam ’ s EEZ on its way toward Malaysian and Bruneian waters .
Such a powerful U.S. Navy assemblage operating in close proximity to the Chinese ships lent an escalatory geopolitical dimension to an already tense situation .
To complete the maritime melee , an Australian frigate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the Americans near the West Capella .
With COVID-19 having immobilized the USS Theodore Roosevelt , in Guam , and partially hamstrung another forward-based aircraft carrier , in Japan , the USS America ’ s grand sortie across the Western Pacific was a bold demonstration of the U.S. 7th Fleet ’ s ability to react , staring down the Chinese maritime forces in the act of intimidating its Southeast neighbors .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States “ strongly opposes China ’ s bullying and we hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , too.
” Australia ’ s Foreign Minister Marise Payne called on “ all parties [ to ] refrain from destabilizing activities and work to ease tensions so the international community can devote full attention to responding cooperatively to the COVID-19 pandemic.
” Here was the United States , alongside one of its closest allies , standing guard with Malaysia during its hour of need .
But the partner the United States was there to help had mixed feelings .
Malaysian Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein issued his own statement affirming Malaysia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the South China Sea .
Characteristically , Hishammuddin sought to position Malaysia in between the United States and China .
Acknowledging that “ international law guarantees the freedom of navigation , ” he added that the presence of warships and vessels in the South China Sea has “ the potential to increase tensions that in turn may result in miscalculations which may affect peace , security and stability in the region.
” Such equivocation , needless to say , did not go down well in Washington .
Within a few days , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America , its escorts , and the Australians quietly left the scene .
China ’ s warships withdrew around the same time .
On April 25 , one of the U.S. Navy ’ s much smaller , faster littoral combat ships , operating from Singapore , moved through the area around the West Capella but did not linger .
The rest of the world has since moved on , but from Malaysia ’ s perspective , the episode is anything but over .
The Haiyang Dizhi 8 remains active within Malaysia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guard vessels .
Many within Malaysia ’ s government are unimpressed .
“ I told you so ” is the refrain from the country ’ s foreign-policy establishment .
Some , including in Malaysia ’ s navy , would still like to see a closer defense and security relationship with the United States as a hedge against further Chinese encroachment in the South China Sea .
The abrupt end to Mahathir Mohamad ’ s second term as prime minister in February had promised an opening for a less anti-Western foreign policy .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Malaysia feels shortchanged , believing that the U.S. Navy arrived unannounced and uninvited , prompting the arrival of more Chinese assets and escalating the situation beyond its capacity to handle independently .
Critics will say this proves America ’ s lack of staying power : showing up with the cavalry , just long enough to make things worse .
If the objective was to deter China from continuing its survey activity within Malaysia ’ s EEZ , it appears to have failed .
It also raises questions about the Trump administration ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will rally to the anti-China cause once presented with a U.S. show of resolve .
China ’ s brash diplomacy during the current pandemic may be rapidly alienating many countries around the world , but most Southeast Asian elites are unlikely to pull back from Beijing ’ s economic embrace .
They are in too deep .
Once the West Capella finishes its current round of drilling , Malaysia could well be tempted to accept joint offshore energy development on China ’ s terms .
Granted , the Philippines and Vietnam have protested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South China Sea , which have seen their own vessels targeted .
But the Trump administration is unlikely to win new regional converts given its shambolic domestic handling of the pandemic while trading shrill accusations and counter-accusations with Beijing .
To be fair , the U.S. Navy ’ s decision not to dwell around the West Capella may say more about basic arithmetic than Washington ’ s attitude .
It has fewer than 300 warships with which to maintain a worldwide presence .
For the 7th Fleet , which is responsible for covering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this task is toughest given the great distances it must cover and the fact that China ’ s navy is already the world ’ s largest in hull numbers .
U.S. submarines are active around the Western Pacific .
But their presence brings little reassurance for allies and partners seeking a visible U.S. commitment to regional security .
Operating in the South China Sea is particularly challenging for the U.S. Navy , as its closest bases are in Japan and Guam , plus a logistics command and berthing facilities for littoral combat ships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Subic Bay in the Philippines , shuttered in 1992 , must be sorely missed .
The base at Vietnam ’ s Cam Ranh Bay , too .
Meanwhile , China has vastly upgraded its bases in the Spratly Islands , giving it the ability to rapidly surge naval and paramilitary forces to the southern extremities of the South China Sea .
Competition in the South China Sea is an endurance game .
Like counterinsurgency , it requires stamina and benefits from the “ indirect approach.
” Presence is more important than firepower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a show of strength , but such fleeting muscular demonstrations are largely ineffective at countering China ’ s suffocation strategy directed at Southeast Asian claimants .
The USS Barry , having since transited the Taiwan Strait and conducted a freedom of navigation patrol in the Paracel Islands , reveals how hard the 7th Fleet is being worked .
But trying to be everywhere at once can mean going around in circles .
The littoral combat ship has been the butt of much criticism for its modest combat capability and reliability issues .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ appropriate platform than larger warships for this kind of littoral presence operation , being nimbler and less escalatory .
The ideal balance between agility , deterrence , and self-protection in the South China Sea probably looks more like a frigate .
The U.S. Navy has just committed to an Italian future frigate design , but it does not have a single frigate in its inventory , currently , and the first ship will not enter the water until 2026 .
The value of the Australian naval contribution in the recent standoff was thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s major naval bases lie even farther from the South China Sea than the 7th Fleet ’ s bases in Japan .
This puts the onus back on Southeast Asia .
If countries such as Malaysia , Brunei , the Philippines , and Vietnam , all in China ’ s firing line , really want the U.S. Navy to remain present in the South China Sea in ways that transcend short-term shows of resolve , they need to collectively come up with ways to rotate the burden of hosting it , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a direct stake in the South China Sea must additionally put aside their differences and be prepared to finally act in concert .
The most important lesson from the West Capella episode is that China won ’ t stop here .

On the face of it, the recent standoff along Malaysia’s Borneo coast was a robust response by the U.S. Navy to some cynically timed Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea, offering reassurance to wavering Southeast Asian countries that Washington still has their back in the midst of a global pandemic. Unfortunately, few in the region are likely to view it that way.
On the face of it, the recent standoff along Malaysia’s Borneo coast was a robust response by the U.S. Navy to some cynically timed Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea, offering reassurance to wavering Southeast Asian countries that Washington still has their back in the midst of a global pandemic. Unfortunately, few in the region are likely to view it that way.
For several days, starting on April 20, the USS America—a small carrier equipped with a handful of F-35 jets, helicopters, and an embarked force of U.S. Marines—patrolled, with its two escorts USS Bunker Hill and USS Barry, in close proximity to a Chinese survey ship, Haiyang Dizhi 8, and its accompanying screen of coast guard vessels and fishing boats, the latter widely assumed to be part of China’s maritime militia. Two Chinese navy destroyers and a frigate subsequently arrived on the scene.
The target of China’s motley but highly coordinated maritime force was the West Capella, a drillship working under charter to Petronas, Malaysia’s state-owned energy company. It has been operating near the outer edge of Malaysia’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), off the state of Sarawak, since late 2019. Beijing’s apparent aim was to intimidate and disrupt Malaysia’s exploration activity, coercing it and other Southeast Asian littoral states into accepting joint development with China.
Beijing has repeatedly dispatched such expeditions, encroaching steadily southward, despite the fact that China has no basis under international law from which to claim jurisdiction, its nine-dash line long since universally discredited. Malaysia deployed what ships were available from its coast guard equivalent and overstretched navy. A Vietnamese vessel also joined the fray, somewhat ambivalently, because Hanoi disputes its maritime boundary with Malaysia yet finds common cause with Kuala Lumpur as a fellow victim of China’s intimidatory tactics. The Chinese flotilla had earlier passed through Vietnam’s EEZ on its way toward Malaysian and Bruneian waters.
Such a powerful U.S. Navy assemblage operating in close proximity to the Chinese ships lent an escalatory geopolitical dimension to an already tense situation. To complete the maritime melee, an Australian frigate, HMAS Parramatta, joined in exercises with the Americans near the West Capella. With COVID-19 having immobilized the USS Theodore Roosevelt, in Guam, and partially hamstrung another forward-based aircraft carrier, in Japan, the USS America’s grand sortie across the Western Pacific was a bold demonstration of the U.S. 7th Fleet’s ability to react, staring down the Chinese maritime forces in the act of intimidating its Southeast neighbors.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States “strongly opposes China’s bullying and we hope other nations will hold them to account, too.” Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne called on “all parties [to] refrain from destabilizing activities and work to ease tensions so the international community can devote full attention to responding cooperatively to the COVID-19 pandemic.” Here was the United States, alongside one of its closest allies, standing guard with Malaysia during its hour of need.
But the partner the United States was there to help had mixed feelings. Malaysian Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein issued his own statement affirming Malaysia’s commitment to safeguard its interests and rights in the South China Sea. Characteristically, Hishammuddin sought to position Malaysia in between the United States and China. Acknowledging that “international law guarantees the freedom of navigation,” he added that the presence of warships and vessels in the South China Sea has “the potential to increase tensions that in turn may result in miscalculations which may affect peace, security and stability in the region.” Such equivocation, needless to say, did not go down well in Washington. Within a few days, and without further incident, the USS America, its escorts, and the Australians quietly left the scene. China’s warships withdrew around the same time. On April 25, one of the U.S. Navy’s much smaller, faster littoral combat ships, operating from Singapore, moved through the area around the West Capella but did not linger.
The rest of the world has since moved on, but from Malaysia’s perspective, the episode is anything but over. The Haiyang Dizhi 8 remains active within Malaysia’s EEZ, guarded by four China Coast Guard vessels. Many within Malaysia’s government are unimpressed. “I told you so” is the refrain from the country’s foreign-policy establishment. Some, including in Malaysia’s navy, would still like to see a closer defense and security relationship with the United States as a hedge against further Chinese encroachment in the South China Sea. The abrupt end to Mahathir Mohamad’s second term as prime minister in February had promised an opening for a less anti-Western foreign policy.
The recent events have not helped their case. Malaysia feels shortchanged, believing that the U.S. Navy arrived unannounced and uninvited, prompting the arrival of more Chinese assets and escalating the situation beyond its capacity to handle independently. Critics will say this proves America’s lack of staying power: showing up with the cavalry, just long enough to make things worse. If the objective was to deter China from continuing its survey activity within Malaysia’s EEZ, it appears to have failed.
It also raises questions about the Trump administration’s hopeful assumption that Southeast Asian nations will rally to the anti-China cause once presented with a U.S. show of resolve. China’s brash diplomacy during the current pandemic may be rapidly alienating many countries around the world, but most Southeast Asian elites are unlikely to pull back from Beijing’s economic embrace. They are in too deep.
Once the West Capella finishes its current round of drilling, Malaysia could well be tempted to accept joint offshore energy development on China’s terms. Granted, the Philippines and Vietnam have protested China’s recent actions in the South China Sea, which have seen their own vessels targeted. But the Trump administration is unlikely to win new regional converts given its shambolic domestic handling of the pandemic while trading shrill accusations and counter-accusations with Beijing.
To be fair, the U.S. Navy’s decision not to dwell around the West Capella may say more about basic arithmetic than Washington’s attitude. It has fewer than 300 warships with which to maintain a worldwide presence. For the 7th Fleet, which is responsible for covering a massive area in the Indo-Pacific, this task is toughest given the great distances it must cover and the fact that China’s navy is already the world’s largest in hull numbers. U.S. submarines are active around the Western Pacific. But their presence brings little reassurance for allies and partners seeking a visible U.S. commitment to regional security. Operating in the South China Sea is particularly challenging for the U.S. Navy, as its closest bases are in Japan and Guam, plus a logistics command and berthing facilities for littoral combat ships in Singapore. The old American base at Subic Bay in the Philippines, shuttered in 1992, must be sorely missed. The base at Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay, too. Meanwhile, China has vastly upgraded its bases in the Spratly Islands, giving it the ability to rapidly surge naval and paramilitary forces to the southern extremities of the South China Sea.
Competition in the South China Sea is an endurance game. Like counterinsurgency, it requires stamina and benefits from the “indirect approach.” Presence is more important than firepower. The USS America amphibious ready group was a show of strength, but such fleeting muscular demonstrations are largely ineffective at countering China’s suffocation strategy directed at Southeast Asian claimants. The USS Barry, having since transited the Taiwan Strait and conducted a freedom of navigation patrol in the Paracel Islands, reveals how hard the 7th Fleet is being worked. But trying to be everywhere at once can mean going around in circles.
The littoral combat ship has been the butt of much criticism for its modest combat capability and reliability issues. But it could still be a more appropriate platform than larger warships for this kind of littoral presence operation, being nimbler and less escalatory. The ideal balance between agility, deterrence, and self-protection in the South China Sea probably looks more like a frigate. The U.S. Navy has just committed to an Italian future frigate design, but it does not have a single frigate in its inventory, currently, and the first ship will not enter the water until 2026. The value of the Australian naval contribution in the recent standoff was thus more than simply symbolic. Yet Australia’s major naval bases lie even farther from the South China Sea than the 7th Fleet’s bases in Japan.
This puts the onus back on Southeast Asia. If countries such as Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Vietnam, all in China’s firing line, really want the U.S. Navy to remain present in the South China Sea in ways that transcend short-term shows of resolve, they need to collectively come up with ways to rotate the burden of hosting it, as Singapore already does. Southeast Asian countries with a direct stake in the South China Sea must additionally put aside their differences and be prepared to finally act in concert. The most important lesson from the West Capella episode is that China won’t stop here.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-04--As If Things Aren’t Bad Enough, Trump Mulls Fresh Trade War With China

As If Things Aren ’ t Bad Enough , Trump Mulls Fresh Trade War With China U.S. officials including President Donald Trump are increasingly banging the drums of a renewed trade war with China , spooking global markets that are already reeling from the unprecedented economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic .
Stock markets across Europe opened lower Monday—and were joined hours later when New York opened—on fears that the Trump administration ’ s effort to shift blame for the coronavirus outbreak will bring with it a renewal of the destructive trade policies between the world ’ s two biggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tit-for-tat tariffs and trade restrictions , acted as a drag on global growth in 2018 and 2019 , before seemingly being put to rest earlier this year with the signing of the so-called phase one trade deal .
Last week , administration officials had already floated the idea of restarting tariffs on China to hold the country “ accountable ” for its role as the original epicenter of the new coronavirus outbreak .
On Sunday , Trump said in an interview that he was considering restoring tariffs , which he called the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walk away from the mini trade deal that put the trade war briefly to rest .
Also on Sunday , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continued to ratchet up the administration ’ s rhetoric against China , saying that China “ has a history of infecting the world , ” raising fears that the virus-driven confrontation between the two powers will force some sort of U.S. action that could spill back into trade relations .
Derek Scissors , a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute , said that so far Trump has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal with China , even though the economic benefits pale in comparison to the carnage wrought by the pandemic .
But as he ramps up his reelection campaign , Trump “ will have to turn on China , he will have to politically , but we will get crap ” policies , Scissors said .
Administration officials have explored a raft of different measures , from defaulting on some U.S. debt owed to China to making China liable for lawsuits to legislation that would force suppliers of certain critical goods to move their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far , as the White House focuses on blaming China for poleaxing global health and the economy , the administration hasn ’ t come up with any real way to get back at Beijing .
“ We don ’ t have a policy formulation that will lead to anything useful , ” Scissors said .
“ We have hawks running around with plans , but no one has educated Trump on anything other than tariffs.
” If Trump ’ s initial trade war with China was a case of politics outweighing economics—the tariffs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both economies but scratched a political itch—that ’ s doubly true for any prospective resumption of the trade war .
While just a few weeks ago , Trump was praising his “ friend ” Xi Jinping for how the Chinese president handled the coronavirus , U.S. frustration with China ’ s role in the initial outbreak and its early handling of the crisis has snowballed .
“ I can understand why the president might be tempted to get back to the tariff war as a high-profile way to point the finger at China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expert on the Chinese economy at Oxford University ’ s China Centre .
“ But it doesn ’ t necessarily follow to me that tariffs are the right way or the best way to secure the objective.
” A renewed trade war is back in the cards precisely because the politics of seeming to cozy up to China in the midst of the damaging pandemic are so toxic .
Over the past decade , sentiment against China ’ s trade policies steadily grew in many quarters in the United States , where China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and competing unfairly .
But COVID-19 has taken that anger at China to a fever pitch , especially during an election year .
“ I think people don ’ t realize the politics of this—China is linked to COVID , and COVID is more important than any foreign-policy issue since the Vietnam War , ” Scissors said .
China “ has never been anything like this important because now it is tied up with bread-and-butter issues like your life.
” That ’ s why he expects Trump ’ s lingering attachment to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which China pledged to buy more U.S. goods and make modest economic reforms , to fall by the wayside sooner or later , as Trump himself hinted on Sunday night .
The problem is that , other than tariffs , the administration has yet to identify a response that will effectively get back at China at a reasonable cost to the United States .
“ Trump will cave , but the questions are when , and do they have a plan in mind , and I don ’ t see any evidence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to tariffs would undoubtedly cause pain for China , which is struggling with a plunge in global demand for many of its products , as well as a sharp slowdown in domestic consumption .
Chinese political leaders this spring paid special attention to the need to stabilize international trade and maintain current supply chains , Magnus said , showing that they are aware of their trade vulnerabilities .
But despite Trump ’ s well-known affinity for using tariffs as a catch-all weapon against other countries , there are three big problems with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. coronavirus response to China , experts say .
First , U.S. imports from China have already fallen steeply ; raising the rates on existing tariffs or following through on proposed tariffs suspended after the phase-one deal would do little more to change the bilateral trade relations between the two countries .
Second , the tariffs were meant to force China to make certain concrete concessions—buying a lot more U.S. goods , cracking down on industrial theft , and the like .
Purely punitive tariffs to punish China for its role in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And , finally , the first wave of tariffs in 2018 and 2019 came at a time of robust U.S. economic growth , when higher costs for businesses and consumers were bearable .
Today , with GDP shrinking at unprecedented rates and tens of millions of people suddenly thrown out of work , raising the costs for U.S. businesses and consumers would be doubly self-destructive .
China ’ s uneven experience with trying to resume economic activity after months of forced shutdown offers a glimpse of how prolonged and painful the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns are lifted , Magnus said .
“ The hangover from this will be quite extensive , so I don ’ t see what the mileage is by compounding that problem by putting new tariffs on the economy , ” he said .

U.S. officials including President Donald Trump are increasingly banging the drums of a renewed trade war with China, spooking global markets that are already reeling from the unprecedented economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
U.S. officials including President Donald Trump are increasingly banging the drums of a renewed trade war with China, spooking global markets that are already reeling from the unprecedented economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
Stock markets across Europe opened lower Monday—and were joined hours later when New York opened—on fears that the Trump administration’s effort to shift blame for the coronavirus outbreak will bring with it a renewal of the destructive trade policies between the world’s two biggest economies. That trade war, including tit-for-tat tariffs and trade restrictions, acted as a drag on global growth in 2018 and 2019, before seemingly being put to rest earlier this year with the signing of the so-called phase one trade deal.
Last week, administration officials had already floated the idea of restarting tariffs on China to hold the country “accountable” for its role as the original epicenter of the new coronavirus outbreak. On Sunday, Trump said in an interview that he was considering restoring tariffs, which he called the “ultimate punishment,” and threatened to walk away from the mini trade deal that put the trade war briefly to rest. Also on Sunday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continued to ratchet up the administration’s rhetoric against China, saying that China “has a history of infecting the world,” raising fears that the virus-driven confrontation between the two powers will force some sort of U.S. action that could spill back into trade relations.
Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said that so far Trump has been anxious to preserve his phase-one trade deal with China, even though the economic benefits pale in comparison to the carnage wrought by the pandemic. But as he ramps up his reelection campaign, Trump “will have to turn on China, he will have to politically, but we will get crap” policies, Scissors said.
Administration officials have explored a raft of different measures, from defaulting on some U.S. debt owed to China to making China liable for lawsuits to legislation that would force suppliers of certain critical goods to move their operations out of China. But so far, as the White House focuses on blaming China for poleaxing global health and the economy, the administration hasn’t come up with any real way to get back at Beijing.
“We don’t have a policy formulation that will lead to anything useful,” Scissors said. “We have hawks running around with plans, but no one has educated Trump on anything other than tariffs.”
If Trump’s initial trade war with China was a case of politics outweighing economics—the tariffs and Chinese retaliatory measures inflicted harm on both economies but scratched a political itch—that’s doubly true for any prospective resumption of the trade war. While just a few weeks ago, Trump was praising his “friend” Xi Jinping for how the Chinese president handled the coronavirus, U.S. frustration with China’s role in the initial outbreak and its early handling of the crisis has snowballed.
“I can understand why the president might be tempted to get back to the tariff war as a high-profile way to point the finger at China,” said George Magnus, an expert on the Chinese economy at Oxford University’s China Centre. “But it doesn’t necessarily follow to me that tariffs are the right way or the best way to secure the objective.”
A renewed trade war is back in the cards precisely because the politics of seeming to cozy up to China in the midst of the damaging pandemic are so toxic. Over the past decade, sentiment against China’s trade policies steadily grew in many quarters in the United States, where China was blamed for hollowing out U.S. manufacturing and competing unfairly. But COVID-19 has taken that anger at China to a fever pitch, especially during an election year.
“I think people don’t realize the politics of this—China is linked to COVID, and COVID is more important than any foreign-policy issue since the Vietnam War,” Scissors said. China “has never been anything like this important because now it is tied up with bread-and-butter issues like your life.”
That’s why he expects Trump’s lingering attachment to the $200 billion phase-one deal, in which China pledged to buy more U.S. goods and make modest economic reforms, to fall by the wayside sooner or later, as Trump himself hinted on Sunday night. The problem is that, other than tariffs, the administration has yet to identify a response that will effectively get back at China at a reasonable cost to the United States.
“Trump will cave, but the questions are when, and do they have a plan in mind, and I don’t see any evidence of that,” Scissors said.
Going back to tariffs would undoubtedly cause pain for China, which is struggling with a plunge in global demand for many of its products, as well as a sharp slowdown in domestic consumption. Chinese political leaders this spring paid special attention to the need to stabilize international trade and maintain current supply chains, Magnus said, showing that they are aware of their trade vulnerabilities.
But despite Trump’s well-known affinity for using tariffs as a catch-all weapon against other countries, there are three big problems with putting them at the center of any U.S. coronavirus response to China, experts say.
First, U.S. imports from China have already fallen steeply; raising the rates on existing tariffs or following through on proposed tariffs suspended after the phase-one deal would do little more to change the bilateral trade relations between the two countries. Second, the tariffs were meant to force China to make certain concrete concessions—buying a lot more U.S. goods, cracking down on industrial theft, and the like. Purely punitive tariffs to punish China for its role in the virus outbreak would serve no broader purpose.
And, finally, the first wave of tariffs in 2018 and 2019 came at a time of robust U.S. economic growth, when higher costs for businesses and consumers were bearable. Today, with GDP shrinking at unprecedented rates and tens of millions of people suddenly thrown out of work, raising the costs for U.S. businesses and consumers would be doubly self-destructive. China’s uneven experience with trying to resume economic activity after months of forced shutdown offers a glimpse of how prolonged and painful the U.S. economic rebound will be, even after lockdowns are lifted, Magnus said.
“The hangover from this will be quite extensive, so I don’t see what the mileage is by compounding that problem by putting new tariffs on the economy,” he said.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-04--Poland Is Showing the World How Not to Run a Pandemic Election

Poland Is Showing the World How Not to Run a Pandemic Election Polish citizens are set to vote in a presidential election later this week , but there is a serious risk that the balloting will be neither free nor fair .
The United States should watch closely and do what is necessary to avoid a similar fate in November .
Voting during a pandemic is a difficult exercise , as demonstrated by the 52 countries that have already decided to postpone national or local elections because of the coronavirus .
Poland is one of the few nations that are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daunting logistical challenges and unconcealed attempts by the ruling party to turn the situation to its own advantage are seriously eroding trust in the process .
On April 6 , a month before the scheduled election , the governing Law and Justice ( PiS ) party rammed legislation through Poland ’ s lower house of parliament , the Sejm , to introduce nationwide postal voting .
Unlike the United States , where the expansion of absentee ballots has been spearheaded by Democrats , in Poland it was the ruling party that championed remote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections on time .
The bill was passed late in the evening amid significant concerns about its content and in defiance of a clear constitutional court decision banning changes to electoral laws less than six months before a vote .
PiS decided to press forward because its loyal ally , incumbent President Andrzej Duda , had been polling favorably .
The party needs Duda in his post to finish what it calls its “ reconstruction of the state , ” which has primarily focused on subordinating independent institutions to its own politicized control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opposition has a razor-thin majority , has stalled the adoption of the postal voting bill , making use of its legally mandated 30 days to debate the measure .
But the government has disregarded procedure , ordering state authorities and local governments to transfer voter identification data to the Polish postal service and to start preparing and printing ballots .
Without an actual law in force , the country is still set to hold in-person balloting on May 10 .
If the Sejm approves the bill on the last day of the Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have only four days to officially inform citizens about the changed procedures .
The last-minute confusion and court involvement are reminiscent of the April primary vote in Wisconsin .
Aside from the legal difficulties , there are enormous logistical obstacles .
Poland lacks experience with widespread postal voting .
The postal service would have to safely and promptly deliver more than 30 million items in the middle of a pandemic , and the authorities would have to make sure that the return boxes where voters deposit their ballots are secure from tampering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this could open the door to fraud , such as the spoiling of ballots , as well as other problems , including family voting , where one member of a household delivers everyone ’ s votes , allowing them to pressure the others to vote a certain way .
Already some ballot packages seemed to have disappeared , and ballots were seen strewn on a sidewalk in Warsaw , raising questions about the security of the vote and the capacity of the Polish Post to administer it .
Moreover , citizens who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ address , including students and expatriates , are likely to be disenfranchised , and it is not clear what will happen to the tens of thousands of people under home quarantine .
The pending law would notably transfer authority over crucial technical questions , such as what should be done with unsealed ballots or illegible handwriting , from the nonpartisan National Electoral Commission to a government ministry .
Meanwhile the opposition is unable to campaign due to health and safety restrictions , even as Duda receives free airtime and favorable coverage from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calls for boycott and the tanking of support for opposition candidates .
Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska from the centrist Civic Platform , who was in second place until March , has announced that she is not taking part in the election .
The government could defuse the crisis at any time by announcing a state of emergency , which would automatically delay the election to 90 days .
The government could defuse the crisis at any time by announcing a state of emergency , in line with the constitution and with its coronavirus-related restrictions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 90 days after the end of the emergency .
Even the proposed law on postal voting allows for a short delay of a week or two .
But the ongoing uncertainty creates an impression , as international election monitors put it , that “ the electoral law is simply a tool in the hands of the powerful.
” For all of these reasons , citizens are unhappy with the government ’ s approach .
According to a recent survey , 80 percent of Poles want the election postponed .
Yet PiS is pushing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the likely economic downturn , which would be Poland ’ s first recession since the early 1990s , will dent its popularity .
But its aggressive approach could hurt the party in the long term and has already pushed the governing coalition to the brink of collapse .
Whatever the outcome , Poland ’ s experience offers valuable lessons for the United States and other democracies planning to hold elections this year .
First , elected officials who believe in democracy must strive to keep partisan politics out of electoral administration and to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the vote long before Election Day .
To achieve this , U.S. officials and lawmakers from both parties will need to work together toward this goal in preparation for the November vote .
They should make clear statements of support for the ability of the democratic system to bring about fair and legitimate outcomes , ideally in joint statements across party lines , and contradict unfounded claims to the contrary regardless of party affiliation .
Poland ’ s experience offers valuable lessons for the United States and other democracies planning to hold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and successful mail-in voting requires ample preparation .
The United States still has six months until the general election , much more time than Poland had , but the task before it is enormous .
Many states need to expand rules to permit widespread postal or absentee balloting , and the U.S .
Postal Service and local election boards need to be shored up for processing of ballots .
In addition , proper personal protective equipment and other sanitary provisions will be necessary for polling sites to remain open as an option for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote by mail .
Congress should get involved to help states share expertise and provide them with the necessary resources .
Finally , both sides need to pledge that they will respect the results of the election and refrain from any rhetoric suggesting the opposite .
In October 2016 , then-candidate Donald Trump stated that he might not accept the election outcome if he thought it might be rigged , despite strong evidence of the integrity of U.S. elections and minimal fraud .
Similar statements from either side in today ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faith in the election and could have a long-term impact on the victor ’ s ability to govern effectively .
If any court decisions are necessary to resolve the outcome , both sides must respect them .
A free and fair election is possible during the pandemic .
But it calls for exhaustive technical preparation and , more importantly , political consensus on basic procedure and the value of ensuring participation by all eligible voters .
Elections are the bedrock of democracy .
They must not be undermined by either the coronavirus or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Polish citizens are set to vote in a presidential election later this week, but there is a serious risk that the balloting will be neither free nor fair. The United States should watch closely and do what is necessary to avoid a similar fate in November.
Polish citizens are set to vote in a presidential election later this week, but there is a serious risk that the balloting will be neither free nor fair. The United States should watch closely and do what is necessary to avoid a similar fate in November.
Voting during a pandemic is a difficult exercise, as demonstrated by the 52 countries that have already decided to postpone national or local elections because of the coronavirus. Poland is one of the few nations that are forging ahead, and a combination of daunting logistical challenges and unconcealed attempts by the ruling party to turn the situation to its own advantage are seriously eroding trust in the process.
On April 6, a month before the scheduled election, the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party rammed legislation through Poland’s lower house of parliament, the Sejm, to introduce nationwide postal voting. Unlike the United States, where the expansion of absentee ballots has been spearheaded by Democrats, in Poland it was the ruling party that championed remote voting as its only chance to hold elections on time. The bill was passed late in the evening amid significant concerns about its content and in defiance of a clear constitutional court decision banning changes to electoral laws less than six months before a vote.
PiS decided to press forward because its loyal ally, incumbent President Andrzej Duda, had been polling favorably. The party needs Duda in his post to finish what it calls its “reconstruction of the state,” which has primarily focused on subordinating independent institutions to its own politicized control.
The upper house, where the opposition has a razor-thin majority, has stalled the adoption of the postal voting bill, making use of its legally mandated 30 days to debate the measure. But the government has disregarded procedure, ordering state authorities and local governments to transfer voter identification data to the Polish postal service and to start preparing and printing ballots.
Without an actual law in force, the country is still set to hold in-person balloting on May 10. If the Sejm approves the bill on the last day of the Senate’s review period, the authorities will have only four days to officially inform citizens about the changed procedures. The last-minute confusion and court involvement are reminiscent of the April primary vote in Wisconsin.
Aside from the legal difficulties, there are enormous logistical obstacles. Poland lacks experience with widespread postal voting. The postal service would have to safely and promptly deliver more than 30 million items in the middle of a pandemic, and the authorities would have to make sure that the return boxes where voters deposit their ballots are secure from tampering.
In the absence of sufficient oversight, this could open the door to fraud, such as the spoiling of ballots, as well as other problems, including family voting, where one member of a household delivers everyone’s votes, allowing them to pressure the others to vote a certain way. Already some ballot packages seemed to have disappeared, and ballots were seen strewn on a sidewalk in Warsaw, raising questions about the security of the vote and the capacity of the Polish Post to administer it.
Moreover, citizens who are not currently residing at their permanent address, including students and expatriates, are likely to be disenfranchised, and it is not clear what will happen to the tens of thousands of people under home quarantine.
The pending law would notably transfer authority over crucial technical questions, such as what should be done with unsealed ballots or illegible handwriting, from the nonpartisan National Electoral Commission to a government ministry. Meanwhile the opposition is unable to campaign due to health and safety restrictions, even as Duda receives free airtime and favorable coverage from the public broadcaster. This has resulted in calls for boycott and the tanking of support for opposition candidates. Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska from the centrist Civic Platform, who was in second place until March, has announced that she is not taking part in the election.
The government could defuse the crisis at any time by announcing a state of emergency, which would automatically delay the election to 90 days.
The government could defuse the crisis at any time by announcing a state of emergency, in line with the constitution and with its coronavirus-related restrictions, which would automatically delay the election to 90 days after the end of the emergency. Even the proposed law on postal voting allows for a short delay of a week or two.
But the ongoing uncertainty creates an impression, as international election monitors put it, that “the electoral law is simply a tool in the hands of the powerful.” For all of these reasons, citizens are unhappy with the government’s approach. According to a recent survey, 80 percent of Poles want the election postponed. Yet PiS is pushing ahead because it fears the coronavirus and the likely economic downturn, which would be Poland’s first recession since the early 1990s, will dent its popularity. But its aggressive approach could hurt the party in the long term and has already pushed the governing coalition to the brink of collapse.
Whatever the outcome, Poland’s experience offers valuable lessons for the United States and other democracies planning to hold elections this year.
First, elected officials who believe in democracy must strive to keep partisan politics out of electoral administration and to instill broad public confidence in the integrity of the vote long before Election Day. To achieve this, U.S. officials and lawmakers from both parties will need to work together toward this goal in preparation for the November vote. They should make clear statements of support for the ability of the democratic system to bring about fair and legitimate outcomes, ideally in joint statements across party lines, and contradict unfounded claims to the contrary regardless of party affiliation.
Poland’s experience offers valuable lessons for the United States and other democracies planning to hold elections this year.
Second, secure and successful mail-in voting requires ample preparation. The United States still has six months until the general election, much more time than Poland had, but the task before it is enormous. Many states need to expand rules to permit widespread postal or absentee balloting, and the U.S. Postal Service and local election boards need to be shored up for processing of ballots. In addition, proper personal protective equipment and other sanitary provisions will be necessary for polling sites to remain open as an option for those who cannot or choose not to vote by mail. Congress should get involved to help states share expertise and provide them with the necessary resources.
Finally, both sides need to pledge that they will respect the results of the election and refrain from any rhetoric suggesting the opposite. In October 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump stated that he might not accept the election outcome if he thought it might be rigged, despite strong evidence of the integrity of U.S. elections and minimal fraud. Similar statements from either side in today’s even more polarized environment would undermine public faith in the election and could have a long-term impact on the victor’s ability to govern effectively. If any court decisions are necessary to resolve the outcome, both sides must respect them.
A free and fair election is possible during the pandemic. But it calls for exhaustive technical preparation and, more importantly, political consensus on basic procedure and the value of ensuring participation by all eligible voters. Elections are the bedrock of democracy. They must not be undermined by either the coronavirus or the more persistent ills of partisan polarization.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-04--Key U.S. Allies Skeptical of Trump’s Coronavirus Lab Leak Claims

Despite claims from the Trump administration of a growing consensus that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese government lab , three members of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partnership and sources within the U.S. national security community are throwing cold water on the theory .
Australia , the United Kingdom , and Canada have pointedly not backed up America ’ s apparent surety that the novel coronavirus was either deliberately or accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab .
All three countries are members of the Five Eyes , the postwar espionage pact designed to share intelligence between like-minded governments , along with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence that Chinese government officials covered up aspects of the scope and severity of COVID-19 early on , Ottawa , Canberra , and London have all said investigations need to continue regarding the source of the virus .
Fox News has reported in recent weeks of an emerging confidence in the United States that the coronavirus accidentally emerged from a biosecurity lab in Wuhan , the initial epicenter of the outbreak .
In the aftermath , the news outlet reported , Beijing worked to cover up the mishap by blaming a nearby wet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen evidence supporting the theory that the virus originated from the level 4 biosecurity lab in Wuhan , U.S. President Donald Trump said simply : “ Yes , I have.
” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , meanwhile , went on ABC ’ s This Week to promote the theory .
“ There is enormous evidence that this is where it began , ” he said .
On Sunday , when Foreign Policy asked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about those assessments , he said it was “ still too early to draw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comment as to whether Canadian intelligence agencies were investigating the claim , he did say it was incumbent on the Five Eyes “ to find answers to the many questions that people are asking.
” Asked by Foreign Policy , Downing Street pointed to a similar statement by a spokesperson for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson , who told reporters on Friday : “ Clearly there are questions that need to be answered about the origin and spread of the virus , ” adding that : “ This will need to be done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China.
” Australian officials were a bit more blunt , telling the Sydney-based Daily Telegraph that they believe the virus began , as Beijing has said , in a wet market in Wuhan .
They put the likelihood that it leaked from the lab at just 5 percent .
The Telegraph reported this weekend on a leaked 15-page research document said to be written by Western intelligence agencies .
The document lends credence to the accusations that China deliberately misled the world on the prevalence of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus and disappeared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But everything published by the Telegraph consists of open-source intelligence , meaning it is readily available online .
The only specifics about the origin of the virus in the dossier , as reported by the Telegraph , point to a study from the South China University of Technology that concluded that COVID-19 originated from the Wuhan lab .
That two-page paper , which was not peer-reviewed and which was pulled by ResearchGate shortly after it was released in February , offers no firm scientific evidence but nevertheless concludes “ the killer coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” One of the authors later repudiated his initial findings in an interview with the Wall Street Journal .
Contrary to some suggestions , the lab is tasked with curing infectious diseases , not creating them—work encouraged in the past by the United States itself .
Even though two of the five members of the Five Eyes partnership are refusing to endorse Washington ’ s theory , Fox News correspondent John Roberts reported Saturday that a senior intelligence source said a majority of America ’ s 17 intelligence agencies believe the virus leaked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unclear which of those 17 agencies agreed with the assessment—the broader intelligence community includes divisions of the U.S. Coast Guard and Energy Department .
Sources in the U.S. intelligence community from three separate agencies who deal closely with China told Foreign Policy that the picture of agreement was misleading .
“ There is no consensus on this , and there isn ’ t enough information to draw one , ” one experienced China analyst said .
“ Really only one or two agencies have the ability to make a good assessment of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a former senior strategy analyst at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service who is now the president of Insight Threat Intelligence , a private intelligence firm that works with governments .
Davis said that based on the open-source intelligence available , “ we ’ re not anywhere near a conclusion about where this thing originated.
” The U.S. intelligence official , speaking to Fox News , seemed to recognize that , saying there was no “ smoking gun.
” The New York Times has reported that the Trump administration has pressured intelligence agencies to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lab accident .
Despite the claim of a consensus , the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a statement last Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community “ concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
” That office iterated that it was investigating “ if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan ” but did not say that a determination had been made .
Davis said that by pumping up this theory in the media , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ draw the Five Eyes into it.
” “ I don ’ t envy my Canadian former colleagues , ” Davis said .
To come out and contradict the White House position is “ bad politics ” for the other Five Eyes countries , she said .
“ But then to let it stand is also unpalatable because then you ’ re being used as a tool of American politicization.
” A request for comment to the office of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern , who is also responsible for her country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ went unanswered .
There is some circumstantial evidence suggesting that an accidental leak from the lab was , at least , possible .
The Washington Post has reported on leaked cables from U.S. officials highlighting serious security and protocol lapses at the Wuhan lab , which is China ’ s only level 4 facility—meaning it is cleared to handle the most dangerous pathogens .
Even if the virus did emerge from the lab , it is highly likely to be a natural virus , rather than a deliberately engineered one .
The journal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the United States , U.K. , and Australia in mid-March , concluding : “ Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus .
”

Despite claims from the Trump administration of a growing consensus that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese government lab, three members of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partnership and sources within the U.S. national security community are throwing cold water on the theory.
Despite claims from the Trump administration of a growing consensus that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese government lab, three members of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partnership and sources within the U.S. national security community are throwing cold water on the theory.
Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada have pointedly not backed up America’s apparent surety that the novel coronavirus was either deliberately or accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab. All three countries are members of the Five Eyes, the postwar espionage pact designed to share intelligence between like-minded governments, along with New Zealand.
While there is ample evidence that Chinese government officials covered up aspects of the scope and severity of COVID-19 early on, Ottawa, Canberra, and London have all said investigations need to continue regarding the source of the virus.
Fox News has reported in recent weeks of an emerging confidence in the United States that the coronavirus accidentally emerged from a biosecurity lab in Wuhan, the initial epicenter of the outbreak. In the aftermath, the news outlet reported, Beijing worked to cover up the mishap by blaming a nearby wet market.
Asked directly whether he has seen evidence supporting the theory that the virus originated from the level 4 biosecurity lab in Wuhan, U.S. President Donald Trump said simply: “Yes, I have.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, meanwhile, went on ABC’s This Week to promote the theory. “There is enormous evidence that this is where it began,” he said.
On Sunday, when Foreign Policy asked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about those assessments, he said it was “still too early to draw firm conclusions.”
While he would not comment as to whether Canadian intelligence agencies were investigating the claim, he did say it was incumbent on the Five Eyes “to find answers to the many questions that people are asking.”
Asked by Foreign Policy, Downing Street pointed to a similar statement by a spokesperson for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who told reporters on Friday: “Clearly there are questions that need to be answered about the origin and spread of the virus,” adding that: “This will need to be done with all our international partners, including China.”
Australian officials were a bit more blunt, telling the Sydney-based Daily Telegraph that they believe the virus began, as Beijing has said, in a wet market in Wuhan. They put the likelihood that it leaked from the lab at just 5 percent.
The Telegraph reported this weekend on a leaked 15-page research document said to be written by Western intelligence agencies. The document lends credence to the accusations that China deliberately misled the world on the prevalence of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus and disappeared doctors and scientists to complete the cover-up.
But everything published by the Telegraph consists of open-source intelligence, meaning it is readily available online.
The only specifics about the origin of the virus in the dossier, as reported by the Telegraph, point to a study from the South China University of Technology that concluded that COVID-19 originated from the Wuhan lab.
That two-page paper, which was not peer-reviewed and which was pulled by ResearchGate shortly after it was released in February, offers no firm scientific evidence but nevertheless concludes “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.” One of the authors later repudiated his initial findings in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. Contrary to some suggestions, the lab is tasked with curing infectious diseases, not creating them—work encouraged in the past by the United States itself.
Even though two of the five members of the Five Eyes partnership are refusing to endorse Washington’s theory, Fox News correspondent John Roberts reported Saturday that a senior intelligence source said a majority of America’s 17 intelligence agencies believe the virus leaked from the lab by mistake.
It is unclear which of those 17 agencies agreed with the assessment—the broader intelligence community includes divisions of the U.S. Coast Guard and Energy Department. Sources in the U.S. intelligence community from three separate agencies who deal closely with China told Foreign Policy that the picture of agreement was misleading. “There is no consensus on this, and there isn’t enough information to draw one,” one experienced China analyst said.
“Really only one or two agencies have the ability to make a good assessment of this,” said Jessica Davis, a former senior strategy analyst at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service who is now the president of Insight Threat Intelligence, a private intelligence firm that works with governments.
Davis said that based on the open-source intelligence available, “we’re not anywhere near a conclusion about where this thing originated.” The U.S. intelligence official, speaking to Fox News, seemed to recognize that, saying there was no “smoking gun.”
The New York Times has reported that the Trump administration has pressured intelligence agencies to sign on to the theory of the lab accident.
Despite the claim of a consensus, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a statement last Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community “concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.” That office iterated that it was investigating “if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan” but did not say that a determination had been made.
Davis said that by pumping up this theory in the media, the Trump administration appears to be trying to “draw the Five Eyes into it.”
“I don’t envy my Canadian former colleagues,” Davis said. To come out and contradict the White House position is “bad politics” for the other Five Eyes countries, she said. “But then to let it stand is also unpalatable because then you’re being used as a tool of American politicization.”
A request for comment to the office of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who is also responsible for her country’s intelligence and security services, went unanswered.
There is some circumstantial evidence suggesting that an accidental leak from the lab was, at least, possible. The Washington Post has reported on leaked cables from U.S. officials highlighting serious security and protocol lapses at the Wuhan lab, which is China’s only level 4 facility—meaning it is cleared to handle the most dangerous pathogens.
Even if the virus did emerge from the lab, it is highly likely to be a natural virus, rather than a deliberately engineered one. The journal Nature Medicine published a paper from researchers in the United States, U.K., and Australia in mid-March, concluding: “Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.”
James Palmer provided additional reporting for this story.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-05--How Long Until There’s a Coronavirus Vaccine?

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Billions in new funds raise coronavirus vaccine hopes , U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela , and Israel strikes a base in Syria .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The European Union on Monday helped raise $ 8 billion dollars for a coronavirus vaccine as over 30 countries contributed to a global fund to address vaccine development .
Norway contributed the highest amount : $ 1 billion , a figure matching the European Commission ’ s donation .
The singer Madonna even contributed $ 1.1 million .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turning point in our fight against coronavirus because today the world is coming together , ” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said .
Where ’ s America ?
The United States did not participate in the fundraising drive , but highlighted its own efforts to fund a vaccine , including $ 2.6 billion through the Department of Health and Human Services ’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
The worry is that the United States will continue to go it alone on vaccine development , potentially delaying access for other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ denied a local news report that the Trump administration was trying to purchase exclusive rights to a potential vaccine on behalf of the United States .
How is vaccine development progressing ?
A STAT tracker showing the progression of high-profile treatments and vaccinations as they go through testing stages shows 13 vaccines currently in development , with only three so far reaching phase-one human trials .
As of April 8 , the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations ( CEPI ) reported 115 vaccine candidates in various stages of development .
The Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine candidates , and has floated the possibility of providing government funds to speed development of the most promising ones .
U.S. President Donald Trump is optimistic , and told Fox News on Sunday that a vaccine could be available by the end of the year .
Anthony Fauci , speaking to ABC ’ s Today Show on April 30 , said the prospect of a vaccine being available in January isn ’ t outside the realm of possibility .
“ It ’ s doable , ” he said .
“ If things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens arrested in botched Venezuelan incursion .
Two U.S. citizens have been detained in Venezuela after the government arrested a further eight men in connection with a failed armed maritime incursion on Sunday .
The Americans were initially identified as Luke Denman and Airan Berry ; the two U.S. military veterans were named by Jordan Goudreau , a former U.S. special forces medic who admitted to planning the assault .
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro brandished the men ’ s passports on state television before providing an exhibition of equipment taken from the detainees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunday alongside former Venezuelan military officer Javier Nieto ; he claimed insurgent forces were still active in the country .
In an interview with a news site run by Venezuelan exiles in Miami , posted late Sunday night , Goudreau said he had been strung along by Juan Guaidó and other members of the Venezuelan opposition , never receiving the money he had been promised .
Goudreau , the owner and operator of the private security company Silvercorp , denied being a mercenary .
“ Mercenaries get paid , ” he said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a cent for this.
” During the interview , Goudreau produced what he claimed to be a general services agreement between his company , Juan Guaidó , and his associates Juan Jose Rendon and Sergio Vergara—all bearing what appeared to be their respective signatures .
Guaidó ’ s press team has denied any involvement from the would-be Venezuelan leader .
First coronavirus case in Europe was in December .
As the U.S. and China continue to spar over who handled the coronavirus outbreak worse , a new wrinkle in the history of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on December 27 from a pneumonia patient in a French hospital has come back positive for the coronavirus , suggesting the virus was in Europe much earlier than previously thought .
Yves Cohen , the head of emergency medicine at the Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris , said he had begun testing samples from patients presenting flu-like symptoms in December and January for the coronavirus .
Of the 14 he has tested , only one came back positive ( and was tested a second time to be sure ) .
The pneumonia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who has since recovered , said he had not travelled to any of the infection hotspots .
The discovery challenges assumptions about the virus ’ s early spread , as France ’ s first three recorded cases in January were all linked back to Wuhan .
Israel strikes in Syria .
Israeli missiles struck a military base in Syria , southeast of Aleppo , according to Syrian state media .
Radio Free Europe reports that the target was a suspected Iranian position and is the fifth airstrike Israel has conducted in two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rights said Israeli warplanes also struck Iran-aligned targets near Albu Kamal at the Iraqi border .
Bolsonaro chooses new police chief .
Rolando Alexandre de Souza has been named as the head of Brazil ’ s federal police after Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ’ s first choice was blocked by the Supreme Court .
De Souza was most recently secretary of planning and management at the Brazilian intelligence agency , ABIN , and had previously held positions in the federal police force .
Responding to Bolsonaro ’ s enthusiastic comments at an anti-democracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s supreme court and legislature on Sunday , Brazil ’ s defense ministry issued a rare statement underlining the commitment of the armed forces to democracy and the Brazilian constitution .
Poland races toward postal voting .
Poland ’ s ruling Law and Justice party is hoping to finalize legislation allowing for postal voting in time for the country ’ s presidential election this Sunday .
Opposition parties have threatened to block the new law and postal workers have complained they don ’ t have sufficient training in how to handle ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unpredictable chaos means people are worried , they are scared and they don ’ t know what this election will look like , ” Dorota Gardias , the head of the Trade Unions ’ Forum , told Reuters .
Writing in Foreign Policy , Zselyke Csaky and Sarah Repucci of Freedom House warn of the serious risk that Poland ’ s election will be “ neither free nor fair , ” as the rush to enact laws opens the door to ballot tampering .
An emergency declaration delaying the election by 90 days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they argue .
Move over goats of Llandudno , there ’ s a new herd in town .
Dramatic video footage has emerged of dozens of sheep roaming the streets of Samsun in northern Turkey as they take advantage of the country ’ s weekend lockdown .
The sheep won ’ t be able to make it a habit , however , as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would start easing lockdown measures as soon as May 11 .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Billions in new funds raise coronavirus vaccine hopes, U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela , and Israel strikes a base in Syria .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Billions in new funds raise coronavirus vaccine hopes, U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela, and Israel strikes a base in Syria.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
European Union Chairs $8 Billion Vaccine Drive
The European Union on Monday helped raise $8 billion dollars for a coronavirus vaccine as over 30 countries contributed to a global fund to address vaccine development. Norway contributed the highest amount: $1 billion, a figure matching the European Commission’s donation. The singer Madonna even contributed $1.1 million.
“I believe 4 May will mark a turning point in our fight against coronavirus because today the world is coming together,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
Where’s America? The United States did not participate in the fundraising drive, but highlighted its own efforts to fund a vaccine, including $2.6 billion through the Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.
The worry is that the United States will continue to go it alone on vaccine development, potentially delaying access for other countries. A German company in March denied a local news report that the Trump administration was trying to purchase exclusive rights to a potential vaccine on behalf of the United States.
How is vaccine development progressing? A STAT tracker showing the progression of high-profile treatments and vaccinations as they go through testing stages shows 13 vaccines currently in development, with only three so far reaching phase-one human trials. As of April 8, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) reported 115 vaccine candidates in various stages of development. The Trump administration has said it is focusing on 14 vaccine candidates, and has floated the possibility of providing government funds to speed development of the most promising ones.
U.S. President Donald Trump is optimistic, and told Fox News on Sunday that a vaccine could be available by the end of the year. Anthony Fauci, speaking to ABC’s Today Show on April 30, said the prospect of a vaccine being available in January isn’t outside the realm of possibility. “It’s doable,” he said. “If things fall into the right place.”
What We’re Following Today
U.S. citizens arrested in botched Venezuelan incursion. Two U.S. citizens have been detained in Venezuela after the government arrested a further eight men in connection with a failed armed maritime incursion on Sunday. The Americans were initially identified as Luke Denman and Airan Berry; the two U.S. military veterans were named by Jordan Goudreau, a former U.S. special forces medic who admitted to planning the assault. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro brandished the men’s passports on state television before providing an exhibition of equipment taken from the detainees.
Goudreau appeared in a video on Sunday alongside former Venezuelan military officer Javier Nieto; he claimed insurgent forces were still active in the country.
In an interview with a news site run by Venezuelan exiles in Miami, posted late Sunday night, Goudreau said he had been strung along by Juan Guaidó and other members of the Venezuelan opposition, never receiving the money he had been promised. Goudreau, the owner and operator of the private security company Silvercorp, denied being a mercenary. “Mercenaries get paid,” he said, “I haven’t been paid a cent for this.”
During the interview, Goudreau produced what he claimed to be a general services agreement between his company, Juan Guaidó, and his associates Juan Jose Rendon and Sergio Vergara—all bearing what appeared to be their respective signatures. Guaidó’s press team has denied any involvement from the would-be Venezuelan leader.
First coronavirus case in Europe was in December. As the U.S. and China continue to spar over who handled the coronavirus outbreak worse, a new wrinkle in the history of the coronavirus has emerged. A sample taken on December 27 from a pneumonia patient in a French hospital has come back positive for the coronavirus, suggesting the virus was in Europe much earlier than previously thought.
Yves Cohen, the head of emergency medicine at the Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris, said he had begun testing samples from patients presenting flu-like symptoms in December and January for the coronavirus. Of the 14 he has tested, only one came back positive (and was tested a second time to be sure). The pneumonia patient from whom the sample was taken, who has since recovered, said he had not travelled to any of the infection hotspots. The discovery challenges assumptions about the virus’s early spread, as France’s first three recorded cases in January were all linked back to Wuhan.
Israel strikes in Syria. Israeli missiles struck a military base in Syria, southeast of Aleppo, according to Syrian state media. Radio Free Europe reports that the target was a suspected Iranian position and is the fifth airstrike Israel has conducted in two weeks. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Israeli warplanes also struck Iran-aligned targets near Albu Kamal at the Iraqi border.
Keep an Eye On
Bolsonaro chooses new police chief. Rolando Alexandre de Souza has been named as the head of Brazil’s federal police after Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s first choice was blocked by the Supreme Court. De Souza was most recently secretary of planning and management at the Brazilian intelligence agency, ABIN, and had previously held positions in the federal police force.
Responding to Bolsonaro’s enthusiastic comments at an anti-democracy rally calling for the closure of Brazil’s supreme court and legislature on Sunday, Brazil’s defense ministry issued a rare statement underlining the commitment of the armed forces to democracy and the Brazilian constitution.
Poland races toward postal voting. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party is hoping to finalize legislation allowing for postal voting in time for the country’s presidential election this Sunday. Opposition parties have threatened to block the new law and postal workers have complained they don’t have sufficient training in how to handle ballots during the coronavirus epidemic. “This unpredictable chaos means people are worried, they are scared and they don’t know what this election will look like,” Dorota Gardias, the head of the Trade Unions’ Forum, told Reuters.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Zselyke Csaky and Sarah Repucci of Freedom House warn of the serious risk that Poland’s election will be “neither free nor fair,” as the rush to enact laws opens the door to ballot tampering. An emergency declaration delaying the election by 90 days would be the safest and fairest approach, they argue.
Odds and Ends
Move over goats of Llandudno, there’s a new herd in town. Dramatic video footage has emerged of dozens of sheep roaming the streets of Samsun in northern Turkey as they take advantage of the country’s weekend lockdown. The sheep won’t be able to make it a habit, however, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would start easing lockdown measures as soon as May 11.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.