foreignpolicy--2020-11-23--Biden Could Help Heal Europe’s Brexit Wounds

The conventional wisdom is that the special relationship between Washington and London will suffer a blow under President-elect Joe Biden .
But that needn ’ t happen .
In the phone call between Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson , both leaders expressed a “ desire to strengthen the special relationship ” according to the official readout .
While it is true that Biden is skeptical of Brexit , will staunchly defend the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland , and prioritizes rebuilding relations with the European Union , a Biden presidency would also offer new opportunities for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Donald Trump narrowly fixated on an advantageous bilateral trade deal , Biden has an opportunity to engage both the EU and the U.K. , helping to reforge foreign policy ties between the two and plugging the United States back into these conversations .
A trade deal with the EU before the end of the year and the departure from the single market is crucial to Britain ’ s chances of engaging the new Biden administration .
Washington , too , has significant stakes in this outcome .
At a time when Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and China , ensuring unity inside the Western tent ought to be a top objective for any U.S. administration .
But even with a trade deal , there will still be a need for the U.K. and the EU to agree on a framework for cooperating on foreign and security policy—something Downing Street has resisted discussing so far for fear of losing leverage in the ongoing negotiations .
During the Trump administration , the United States has taken a backseat role in these discussions and failed to recognize the wider stakes involved .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense that the Brexit cause is analogous to his own “ America first ” populist-nationalist movement at home .
Having greeted the British decision to leave the EU as a “ great victory , ” Trump repeatedly urged the U.K. government to pursue a hard Brexit or even to “ walk away ” from talks with the EU , which he views as an economic competitor and a “ foe.
” Despite this , he did little to materially support London .
Instead , his political criticism did serious harm to then-Prime Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ America first ” saw the U.K. end up in the same camp as other European countries lamenting Trump ’ s exit from the Paris climate accords , the Iran nuclear agreement , and the World Health Organization .
Even on issues where London hoped to engage Washington , British officials ended up disappointed by a lack of American responsiveness when pressed for forward-looking multilateral plans on securing critical supply chains or 5G amid rising tensions with China .
It took China ’ s own aggressiveness over Hong Kong to push London into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As with much else , Biden ’ s position would be exactly reversed .
Biden and his advisors view Brexit suspiciously and have expressed a strong desire to repair America ’ s battered relations with the European Union .
Unlike Trump , Biden is positive about the EU , seeing Brussels as a key partner for advancing American interests .
Biden strongly opposes any attempt by the U.K. to walk back its commitments in the EU-U.K. withdrawal agreement signed in January regarding Northern Ireland in such a way that could jeopardize the Good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tweet and a campaign statement criticizing the controversial Internal Market Bill , much to Downing Street ’ s chagrin .
But neglecting London in favor of mainly engaging with Berlin , Paris , and Brussels would be a mistake .
Despite years of strategic paralysis following the Brexit vote , the U.K. still plays an important role for European security and has been showing signs of a newfound foreign-policy activism .
For example , the Royal Navy ’ s new carrier strike group , which the Navy describes as “ the largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost 20 years , ” recently began patrolling the North Sea .
British forces also remain in the Baltics as part of NATO ’ s forward presence deployment in the area .
As the host of last year ’ s NATO summit , the U.K. has also signaled it wants to play a stronger role in the trans-Atlantic alliance in the coming years as a way to compensate for Brexit .
Furthermore , the government ’ s new $ 21.9 billion defense budget hike will be the country ’ s biggest military investment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others are scaling down .
It will enhance Britain ’ s status as Europe ’ s leading military power ahead of France , includes innovative investments in a cybersecurity force and artificial intelligence agency , and is meant to demonstrate international commitment .
London has also been at the forefront of responding to recent security and human rights incidents in Europe ’ s neighborhood recently .
In September , Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab announced plans to impose Magnitsky-style human rights sanctions against Belarusian officials responsible for the illegal crackdown on peaceful protesters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EU was able to reach agreement .
The Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya praised “ all action ” Britain as “ an example to the whole world.
” The U.K. has also imposed targeted sanctions on Russian officials for the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and just completed an ambitious trade and strategic partnership agreement with Ukraine , which also includes military assistance .
Britain ’ s launch of the Global Media Defence Fund , housed at UNESCO , again with Canada , has also shown creativity in standing up for human @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as many in Washington feared , to a narrowly mercantilist Britain : a “ Singapore-on-Thames ” putting interests over values .
As part of the government ’ s “ Global Britain ” foreign-policy vision , the U.K. has become more forward-leaning on addressing challenges stemming from China ’ s growing international assertiveness .
For example , in response to China ’ s crackdown on protests in Hong Kong , the U.K. quickly suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong and rallied Australia and Canada to join it in condemnation before the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s decision to strip Huawei from its 5G network has been seen as a game-changing event for the U.S. campaign against the Chinese company , triggering other European countries to follow .
Britain ’ s role in building up the increased coordination beyond intelligence matters among the Five Eyes alliance has also helped the United States coordinate against challenges posed by China .
Inevitably the U.K. will start at a disadvantage under Biden because of Brexit .
It will therefore need to continue demonstrating its usefulness to Washington on advancing broader U.S. objectives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Middle East , as well as on global issues such as technology , climate , and public health .
Given the pivotal role of the City of London and Britain ’ s myriad offshore territories , London could be Biden ’ s indispensable partner to cleaning up global finance .
Areas where the United States should welcome greater U.K. engagement include security issues in Eastern Europe—especially the “ ring of fire ” of conflicts and crises now surrounding Russia from Belarus and Ukraine to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and instability in Kyrgyzstan .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bilateral relations with Turkey to engage Ankara diplomatically on security issues in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya to help defuse tensions in NATO .
Raab ’ s recent call with the Turkish foreign minister urging de-escalation on these various conflicts is a signal of how London can be useful in the region—complementing Paris ’ s current tough talk and Berlin ’ s careful foot-dragging .
An incoming U.S. administration immediately torn and pulled between domestic and foreign crises needs as much support as it can get from allies with their own resources .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.K. on its upcoming G-7 chairmanship and the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow next year .
With action on climate change a priority for Johnson , this is an area of real synergy with the Biden administration .
Britain ’ s active contributions to combating the coronavirus pandemic , such as hosting the Global Vaccine Summit in June , also make it well positioned to engage on what is likely to be a top early priority for the Biden administration .
Another opportunity for deeper U.S.-U.K. engagement would be to use the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considering proposing at the G-7 , with the world ’ s leading democracies to tackle 5G and supply chain issues , which could fit nicely with Biden ’ s own plans for a summit of democracies .
This broader definition of foreign policy , as a geoeconomic or geotechnological challenge , is shared by many on Biden ’ s team , for whom London may turn out to be the surprise partner .
The next U.S. administration should recognize Britain ’ s contributions and encourage the U.K. to do even more while also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security policy mechanism .
Rather than just bemoaning Brexit , the Biden administration should push Europeans to regularly consult with the U.K. and to grant London an observer role in the EU ’ s Foreign Affairs Council or the Political and Security Committee as a matter of course to advance cooperation on diplomacy , sanctions , and security and defense policy .
But it should also push the U.K. government to invest more in its relationship with the EU and work privately with London to address concerns about the Good Friday Agreement in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to London must be that the special relationship requires a Britain that is close to and influential with the EU , too .
At the same time , given the continued shortcomings in EU foreign policy and NATO ’ s limited usefulness for addressing evolving economic , technological , and hybrid challenges , simultaneously promoting more informal formats and overlapping coalitions involving the U.K. and other partners also makes sense .
For example , under Biden , the United States would be well positioned to plug into the E-3 group between London , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ key dossiers such as Russia , Belarus , China , and Iran .
Here , the Biden administration should be ambitious and creative—focused on achieving practical results rather than setting up new institutions or formal platforms .
In short , as the new administration engages on the worthy goal of repairing trans-Atlantic relations post-Trump , it will avoid Trump ’ s mistake of elevating empty rhetoric about the U.K. above ties with the EU .
But it should also avoid the obvious temptation to downgrade relations with London because of Brexit .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the U.S.-EU , and the U.K.-EU relationships all remain strong , healthy , and united .
In fact , healing the strategic wound that Brexit has caused could end up being Biden ’ s greatest legacy for renewing the trans-Atlantic relationship in the years to come .
The United States does not have a limitless supply of middle-power democratic allies with an appetite for action .
It would be a mistake to let Brexit forestall a reinvigorated alliance with one in a moment of Western weakness .

The conventional wisdom is that the special relationship between Washington and London will suffer a blow under President-elect Joe Biden. But that needn’t happen. In the phone call between Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, both leaders expressed a “desire to strengthen the special relationship” according to the official readout. While it is true that Biden is skeptical of Brexit, will staunchly defend the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, and prioritizes rebuilding relations with the European Union, a Biden presidency would also offer new opportunities for the United Kingdom. In particular, while President Donald Trump narrowly fixated on an advantageous bilateral trade deal, Biden has an opportunity to engage both the EU and the U.K., helping to reforge foreign policy ties between the two and plugging the United States back into these conversations.
The conventional wisdom is that the special relationship between Washington and London will suffer a blow under President-elect Joe Biden. But that needn’t happen. In the phone call between Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, both leaders expressed a “desire to strengthen the special relationship” according to the official readout. While it is true that Biden is skeptical of Brexit, will staunchly defend the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, and prioritizes rebuilding relations with the European Union, a Biden presidency would also offer new opportunities for the United Kingdom. In particular, while President Donald Trump narrowly fixated on an advantageous bilateral trade deal, Biden has an opportunity to engage both the EU and the U.K., helping to reforge foreign policy ties between the two and plugging the United States back into these conversations.
A trade deal with the EU before the end of the year and the departure from the single market is crucial to Britain’s chances of engaging the new Biden administration. Washington, too, has significant stakes in this outcome. At a time when Europe is facing growing authoritarian pressure from Russia and China, ensuring unity inside the Western tent ought to be a top objective for any U.S. administration. But even with a trade deal, there will still be a need for the U.K. and the EU to agree on a framework for cooperating on foreign and security policy—something Downing Street has resisted discussing so far for fear of losing leverage in the ongoing negotiations.
During the Trump administration, the United States has taken a backseat role in these discussions and failed to recognize the wider stakes involved. Underpinning Trump’s approach was a sense that the Brexit cause is analogous to his own “America first” populist-nationalist movement at home. Having greeted the British decision to leave the EU as a “great victory,” Trump repeatedly urged the U.K. government to pursue a hard Brexit or even to “walk away” from talks with the EU, which he views as an economic competitor and a “foe.” Despite this, he did little to materially support London. Instead, his political criticism did serious harm to then-Prime Minister Theresa May’s political credibility.
“America first” saw the U.K. end up in the same camp as other European countries lamenting Trump’s exit from the Paris climate accords, the Iran nuclear agreement, and the World Health Organization. Even on issues where London hoped to engage Washington, British officials ended up disappointed by a lack of American responsiveness when pressed for forward-looking multilateral plans on securing critical supply chains or 5G amid rising tensions with China. It took China’s own aggressiveness over Hong Kong to push London into action, not an American lead.
As with much else, Biden’s position would be exactly reversed. Biden and his advisors view Brexit suspiciously and have expressed a strong desire to repair America’s battered relations with the European Union. Unlike Trump, Biden is positive about the EU, seeing Brussels as a key partner for advancing American interests. Biden strongly opposes any attempt by the U.K. to walk back its commitments in the EU-U.K. withdrawal agreement signed in January regarding Northern Ireland in such a way that could jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement, and he has issued a tweet and a campaign statement criticizing the controversial Internal Market Bill, much to Downing Street’s chagrin.
But neglecting London in favor of mainly engaging with Berlin, Paris, and Brussels would be a mistake. Despite years of strategic paralysis following the Brexit vote, the U.K. still plays an important role for European security and has been showing signs of a newfound foreign-policy activism. For example, the Royal Navy’s new carrier strike group, which the Navy describes as “the largest and most powerful European-led maritime force in almost 20 years,” recently began patrolling the North Sea. British forces also remain in the Baltics as part of NATO’s forward presence deployment in the area. As the host of last year’s NATO summit, the U.K. has also signaled it wants to play a stronger role in the trans-Atlantic alliance in the coming years as a way to compensate for Brexit. Furthermore, the government’s new $21.9 billion defense budget hike will be the country’s biggest military investment since the Cold War at a time others are scaling down. It will enhance Britain’s status as Europe’s leading military power ahead of France, includes innovative investments in a cybersecurity force and artificial intelligence agency, and is meant to demonstrate international commitment.
London has also been at the forefront of responding to recent security and human rights incidents in Europe’s neighborhood recently. In September, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab announced plans to impose Magnitsky-style human rights sanctions against Belarusian officials responsible for the illegal crackdown on peaceful protesters, in coordination with Canada, before the EU was able to reach agreement. The Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya praised “all action” Britain as “an example to the whole world.” The U.K. has also imposed targeted sanctions on Russian officials for the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and just completed an ambitious trade and strategic partnership agreement with Ukraine, which also includes military assistance. Britain’s launch of the Global Media Defence Fund, housed at UNESCO, again with Canada, has also shown creativity in standing up for human rights.
Nor has Brexit led, as many in Washington feared, to a narrowly mercantilist Britain: a “Singapore-on-Thames” putting interests over values. As part of the government’s “Global Britain” foreign-policy vision, the U.K. has become more forward-leaning on addressing challenges stemming from China’s growing international assertiveness. For example, in response to China’s crackdown on protests in Hong Kong, the U.K. quickly suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong and rallied Australia and Canada to join it in condemnation before the United States chose to do so. Britain’s decision to strip Huawei from its 5G network has been seen as a game-changing event for the U.S. campaign against the Chinese company, triggering other European countries to follow. Britain’s role in building up the increased coordination beyond intelligence matters among the Five Eyes alliance has also helped the United States coordinate against challenges posed by China.
Inevitably the U.K. will start at a disadvantage under Biden because of Brexit. It will therefore need to continue demonstrating its usefulness to Washington on advancing broader U.S. objectives vis-à-vis Russia, China, and the Middle East, as well as on global issues such as technology, climate, and public health. Given the pivotal role of the City of London and Britain’s myriad offshore territories, London could be Biden’s indispensable partner to cleaning up global finance. Areas where the United States should welcome greater U.K. engagement include security issues in Eastern Europe—especially the “ring of fire” of conflicts and crises now surrounding Russia from Belarus and Ukraine to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and instability in Kyrgyzstan.
The U.K. could also use its relatively good bilateral relations with Turkey to engage Ankara diplomatically on security issues in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya to help defuse tensions in NATO. Raab’s recent call with the Turkish foreign minister urging de-escalation on these various conflicts is a signal of how London can be useful in the region—complementing Paris’s current tough talk and Berlin’s careful foot-dragging. An incoming U.S. administration immediately torn and pulled between domestic and foreign crises needs as much support as it can get from allies with their own resources.
The Biden administration should also engage the U.K. on its upcoming G-7 chairmanship and the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow next year. With action on climate change a priority for Johnson, this is an area of real synergy with the Biden administration. Britain’s active contributions to combating the coronavirus pandemic, such as hosting the Global Vaccine Summit in June, also make it well positioned to engage on what is likely to be a top early priority for the Biden administration. Another opportunity for deeper U.S.-U.K. engagement would be to use the D-10 format, which Downing Street is considering proposing at the G-7, with the world’s leading democracies to tackle 5G and supply chain issues, which could fit nicely with Biden’s own plans for a summit of democracies. This broader definition of foreign policy, as a geoeconomic or geotechnological challenge, is shared by many on Biden’s team, for whom London may turn out to be the surprise partner.
The next U.S. administration should recognize Britain’s contributions and encourage the U.K. to do even more while also promoting a bespoke post-Brexit U.K.-EU foreign and security policy mechanism. Rather than just bemoaning Brexit, the Biden administration should push Europeans to regularly consult with the U.K. and to grant London an observer role in the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council or the Political and Security Committee as a matter of course to advance cooperation on diplomacy, sanctions, and security and defense policy. But it should also push the U.K. government to invest more in its relationship with the EU and work privately with London to address concerns about the Good Friday Agreement in trade talks. The message from Washington to London must be that the special relationship requires a Britain that is close to and influential with the EU, too.
At the same time, given the continued shortcomings in EU foreign policy and NATO’s limited usefulness for addressing evolving economic, technological, and hybrid challenges, simultaneously promoting more informal formats and overlapping coalitions involving the U.K. and other partners also makes sense. For example, under Biden, the United States would be well positioned to plug into the E-3 group between London, Paris, and Berlin to coordinate on key dossiers such as Russia, Belarus, China, and Iran. Here, the Biden administration should be ambitious and creative—focused on achieving practical results rather than setting up new institutions or formal platforms.
In short, as the new administration engages on the worthy goal of repairing trans-Atlantic relations post-Trump, it will avoid Trump’s mistake of elevating empty rhetoric about the U.K. above ties with the EU. But it should also avoid the obvious temptation to downgrade relations with London because of Brexit. Instead, Washington should ensure that the U.S.-U.K., the U.S.-EU, and the U.K.-EU relationships all remain strong, healthy, and united. In fact, healing the strategic wound that Brexit has caused could end up being Biden’s greatest legacy for renewing the trans-Atlantic relationship in the years to come. The United States does not have a limitless supply of middle-power democratic allies with an appetite for action. It would be a mistake to let Brexit forestall a reinvigorated alliance with one in a moment of Western weakness.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-23--Biden’s Secretary of State Pick Bodes Return to Normalcy for Weary Diplomats

Biden ’ s Secretary of State Pick Bodes Return to Normalcy for Weary Diplomats This article is part of The Biden Transition , Foreign Policy ’ s ongoing coverage of how U.S. President-elect Joe Biden builds a new White House administration—and what the new team ’ s policies might be .
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is expected to pick Antony Blinken , one of his closest policy aides and confidants , to be secretary of state , according to people familiar with the matter .
A former State Department No .
2 and longtime advisor to the former Delaware senator @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dating back to the Clinton administration and signals the return of the foreign-policy establishment to power after the disruption of the Trump era .
Blinken has advised Biden for nearly two decades , first as staff director at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when Biden was chairman , and later as national security advisor to the vice president .
He served as deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017 , when he played a pivotal role in the Obama administration ’ s Syria policy and the U.S. response to the Russian invasion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Blinken is seen by many in Democratic foreign-policy circles as a centrist , and his expected nomination to the country ’ s top diplomatic posts dashes hopes in the left wing of the Democratic Party that Biden would tap a more progressive candidate , such as Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy .
Additionally , people familiar with the Biden transition team ’ s plans say that the president-elect is expected to select Linda Thomas-Greenfield , a seasoned and well-respected former career diplomat , as his ambassador to the United Nations .
Foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be chosen for a senior role in the administration .
Jake Sullivan , another campaign advisor and Obama administration veteran , is expected to be named as Biden ’ s national security advisor , as the Washington Post reports .
Sullivan served in the same role for Biden when he was vice president before becoming a major player on Obama ’ s Iran policy at the State Department , holding secret meetings in Oman that laid the groundwork for the 2015 nuclear deal .
In Foggy Bottom , news of Blinken ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after four years of career diplomats being treated with distrust and disdain by President Donald Trump ’ s inner circle , particularly after Trump ’ s bruising impeachment trial .
“ Blinken ’ s appointment will be a salve to a wounded State Department and will reassure U.S. allies , who know him well , ” said one former diplomat .
Some foreign-policy experts close to the campaign see Blinken ’ s expected nomination as an indication that the Biden team isn ’ t hopeful about Democrats taking control of the Senate after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Georgia .
Senior Republican lawmakers have signaled they would confirm centrist nominees , but not further-left progressive nominees , if they retained control in the Senate .
Those experts also said that another top contender for the secretary of state position , Obama ’ s former National Security Advisor Susan Rice , would have faced significant hurdles getting confirmed in a Republican-controlled Senate .
Even though Blinken is seen as a centrist , he held regular calls with progressive groups during the campaign and is seen as flexible by advocates on major priorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to bring the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to an end , reforming the War Powers Resolution , restoring the refugee resettlement program curtailed by Trump , and cutting off arms sales to Saudi Arabia .
Blinken ’ s nomination could also signal a return to prominence for what traditionally was a main driver of U.S. foreign policy .
During the Obama administration—and Trump ’ s single term—some diplomats said that the White House and National Security Council had overshadowed the State Department , leaving it with less clout and influence in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s close relationship with Biden , the pick is seen as a shot in the arm for the State Department .
“ His relationship with the president matters a lot , ” said one diplomatic source , noting it “ could be a positive sign of the relative role of State vs. the NSC.
” The son of a former U.S. ambassador to Hungary during the Clinton administration , Blinken worked his way up from roles in President Bill Clinton ’ s National Security Council to staff director on the Senate Foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under Secretary of State John Kerry .
During the campaign , Blinken had repeatedly vowed that , once elected , Biden would repair U.S. relations with its closest allies after four years of tension under Trump and restore U.S. stature in international institutions .
He has consistently defended Biden ’ s foreign-policy stances , including controversial ones such as the proposed federalization of Iraq and reluctance to put more boots on the ground in Afghanistan during the Obama administration .
While serving as deputy secretary of state , Blinken pushed back against plans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civil war to hold the Bashar al-Assad regime accountable for crimes against Syrian civilians , lest it derail the political process for peace talks between the warring sides .

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is expected to pick Antony Blinken, one of his closest policy aides and confidants, to be secretary of state, according to people familiar with the matter. A former State Department No. 2 and longtime advisor to the former Delaware senator, Blinken has decades of foreign-policy experience dating back to the Clinton administration and signals the return of the foreign-policy establishment to power after the disruption of the Trump era.
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is expected to pick Antony Blinken, one of his closest policy aides and confidants, to be secretary of state, according to people familiar with the matter. A former State Department No. 2 and longtime advisor to the former Delaware senator, Blinken has decades of foreign-policy experience dating back to the Clinton administration and signals the return of the foreign-policy establishment to power after the disruption of the Trump era.
Blinken has advised Biden for nearly two decades, first as staff director at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when Biden was chairman, and later as national security advisor to the vice president. He served as deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017, when he played a pivotal role in the Obama administration’s Syria policy and the U.S. response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and illegal annexation of Crimea.
Blinken is seen by many in Democratic foreign-policy circles as a centrist, and his expected nomination to the country’s top diplomatic posts dashes hopes in the left wing of the Democratic Party that Biden would tap a more progressive candidate, such as Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy.
Additionally, people familiar with the Biden transition team’s plans say that the president-elect is expected to select Linda Thomas-Greenfield, a seasoned and well-respected former career diplomat, as his ambassador to the United Nations. Foreign Policy previously reported she was expected to be chosen for a senior role in the administration. Jake Sullivan, another campaign advisor and Obama administration veteran, is expected to be named as Biden’s national security advisor, as the Washington Post reports. Sullivan served in the same role for Biden when he was vice president before becoming a major player on Obama’s Iran policy at the State Department, holding secret meetings in Oman that laid the groundwork for the 2015 nuclear deal.
In Foggy Bottom, news of Blinken’s expected nomination was met with relief, after four years of career diplomats being treated with distrust and disdain by President Donald Trump’s inner circle, particularly after Trump’s bruising impeachment trial. “Blinken’s appointment will be a salve to a wounded State Department and will reassure U.S. allies, who know him well,” said one former diplomat.
Some foreign-policy experts close to the campaign see Blinken’s expected nomination as an indication that the Biden team isn’t hopeful about Democrats taking control of the Senate after a January runoff for two seats in Georgia. Senior Republican lawmakers have signaled they would confirm centrist nominees, but not further-left progressive nominees, if they retained control in the Senate. Those experts also said that another top contender for the secretary of state position, Obama’s former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, would have faced significant hurdles getting confirmed in a Republican-controlled Senate.
Even though Blinken is seen as a centrist, he held regular calls with progressive groups during the campaign and is seen as flexible by advocates on major priorities for the left, including supporting efforts to bring the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to an end, reforming the War Powers Resolution, restoring the refugee resettlement program curtailed by Trump, and cutting off arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Blinken’s nomination could also signal a return to prominence for what traditionally was a main driver of U.S. foreign policy. During the Obama administration—and Trump’s single term—some diplomats said that the White House and National Security Council had overshadowed the State Department, leaving it with less clout and influence in making foreign policy. Especially given Blinken’s close relationship with Biden, the pick is seen as a shot in the arm for the State Department.
“His relationship with the president matters a lot,” said one diplomatic source, noting it “could be a positive sign of the relative role of State vs. the NSC.”
The son of a former U.S. ambassador to Hungary during the Clinton administration, Blinken worked his way up from roles in President Bill Clinton’s National Security Council to staff director on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to deputy secretary of state under Secretary of State John Kerry.
During the campaign, Blinken had repeatedly vowed that, once elected, Biden would repair U.S. relations with its closest allies after four years of tension under Trump and restore U.S. stature in international institutions. He has consistently defended Biden’s foreign-policy stances, including controversial ones such as the proposed federalization of Iraq and reluctance to put more boots on the ground in Afghanistan during the Obama administration. While serving as deputy secretary of state, Blinken pushed back against plans in the early stages of the Syrian civil war to hold the Bashar al-Assad regime accountable for crimes against Syrian civilians, lest it derail the political process for peace talks between the warring sides.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-24--Biden Puts White House on Climate War Footing

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : John Kerry joins the incoming Biden administration as climate envoy , Saudi Arabia denies meeting between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , and Ethiopia ’ s former prime minister , Hailemariam Desalegn , condemns the international community ’ s approach to the Tigray conflict in an FP article .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Biden ’ s technocratic choices for his cabinet have raised eyebrows for their relatively low profiles , but one appointment still retains some big name appeal .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the U.S. secretary of state who helped usher in the Iran nuclear deal and Paris climate accords , will soon be back at the White House .
As special presidential envoy for climate , Kerry will take up a post on the White House National Security Council , a move meant to signal how seriously the Biden administration will take the crisis of climate change while also sparing Kerry any Senate confirmation battle .
Kerry is unlikely to be the final Biden choice with a climate change remit outside of their traditional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be Biden ’ s pick for Treasury secretary , has endorsed a carbon tax as a means to cut greenhouse gas emissions .
The news comes as the levels of greenhouse gases in the earth ’ s atmosphere continue to rise .
A report by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization released on Monday warned that global lockdowns in the face of COVID-19 have not stemmed the rise of carbon dioxide , and that the dip in carbon emissions estimated for 2020—between 4.2 percent and 7.5 percent—are a “ tiny blip ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observed year on year .
“ Climate-related ” change .
While Biden has now elevated climate change to an issue of national security , the U.S. military has never stopped preparing for the impacts of climate change even as the Trump administration effectively prohibited the use of the term .
For example , a 2019 Pentagon report assessed which U.S. military installations were most vulnerable to “ climate-related events , ” finding 79 that were under threat of either recurrent flooding , drought , desertification , wildfires , or thawing permafrost .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interview with Emily Atkin of the climate newsletter Heated , John Kerry spoke about the launch of the climate initiative World War Zero , ( so called , in Kerry ’ s words , because “ we ’ ve got to treat this like a war ” ) which gives some insight into his possible big-tent approach .
“ We ’ ve got to start by saying the basic overall plan we can all agree on is we ’ ve got to get to net zero , low carbon , no carbon economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Kerry said .
“ The ‘ or earlier ’ is very important to that discussion , because with the right leadership , we can do this earlier .
We could make that happen.
” “ But right now , no country in the world is getting the job done .
The United States ’ emissions are going up this year .
Europe ’ s going up this year .
Russia ’ s going up .
China ’ s going up .
And that ’ s completely , totally unacceptable .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it.
” Asked why he signed up to the World War Zero initiative , his answer could just as well apply to why he is taking this White House job .
“ Because it wasn ’ t getting done , ” Kerry replied .
“ Because it ’ s not happening .
Because I ’ m a person who tries to get things done .
And people who know me know there ’ s a level of impatience that manifests itself in trying to make things happen.
” The meeting that didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deny that a meeting took place between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , despite an Israeli government official appearing to confirm that the two met on Sunday along with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo .
The meeting would be the first-ever publicly known meeting between the two leaders and comes at a time of increased uncertainty for the Saudi kingdom .
President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to “ reassess ” the U.S.-Saudi relationship , including pulling U.S. support for the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen—a withdrawal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said that normalization with Israel will only take place once “ a permanent and full peace deal ” has been reached between Israel and the Palestinians .
Burkina Faso waits on results .
More results are expected to be released today in Burkina Faso ’ s presidential election , following allegations of fraud and voting irregularities by opposition parties .
Although many polling stations were closed to avoid targeting by jihadist groups , international observers report no evidence of fraud so far .
With just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ districts reporting , incumbent President Roch Kaboré is in the lead .
The contest will head to a second round if no candidate garners more than 50 percent of the vote .
Progressives question Flournoy nomination .
One of Joe Biden ’ s likely cabinet picks is facing pushback from the Democratic party ’ s progressive wing , over past ties to defense contractors and connections to policy decisions on the Middle East during the Obama administration , FP ’ s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer report .
Michèle Flournoy , widely tipped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense secretary , currently serves on the board of Booz Allen Hamilton and , along with Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken , founded a consulting firm that reportedly advises defense firms .
A vaccine for the people ?
A coronavirus vaccine candidate developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University is 90 percent effective at certain doses , according to the result of late-stage trials .
Although the efficacy of the vaccine—now the third to produce promising results—is cause for celebration , its relative ease of distribution and cost gives hope to poorer countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ richer countries buying up vaccine stocks .
The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaacine can be transported at normal refrigerator temperatures , unlike the mRNA based Pfizer and Moderna vaccines which require super cold temperatures .
The price , at roughly $ 2.50 a dose , is nearly ten times cheaper than the mRNA vaccines .
U.N. fears purge of Tigrayan officers .
As the conflict between Ethiopia ’ s federal government and the leaders of the northern Tigray region continues , FP ’ s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer report that the Ethiopian government has allegedly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deployed in United Nations and African Union peacekeeping missions abroad and forcing them onto flights to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa .
According to an internal U.N. account , there are fears that they could face torture or death .
Former Ethiopian PM weighs in .
Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn argues in an article for Foreign Policy that these violations must be investigated immediately .
“ If verified , this is a dangerous development and should be condemned in no uncertain terms , and the perpetrators should be brought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the primary threat to Ethiopia , Hailemariam argues , is the current leaders of the Tigray People ’ s Liberation Front who dominated the coalition he led as prime minister from 2012 to 2018—and the international community should not reward their aggression by backing talks that lead to a power-sharing deal .
“ As well-meaning as many of the voices calling for negotiations are , they also seem to ignore the Machiavellian and deadly machinations of the remnants of the old TPLF regime and are shying away from blaming them for destabilizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkey-EU tensions .
Turkey summoned the ambassadors of Italy , Germany , and the European Union on Monday to protest the search of a Turkish ship by German forces on an EU mission to enforce an arms embargo on Libya .
Turkey maintains that the ship was carrying humanitarian supplies and that German personnel boarded the ship without permission .
The German Defense Ministry said nothing suspicious had been found on the ship by the time the German sailors were ordered to leave the ship .
Dutch far-right leader drops out .
Thierry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-immigration , anti-European Union party Forum for Democracy ( FvD ) has removed himself from the running for parliamentary elections in March after party members were found to have made anti-Semitic and homophobic slurs in a closed group chat .
Baudet will remain as party chairman .
FvD is currently polling in ninth place out of 13 main parties .
In March 2019 , Thijs Kleinpaste profiled Baudet as the new face of the Dutch far-right .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joins the incoming Biden administration as climate envoy, Saudi Arabia denies meeting between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn condemns the international community’s approach to the Tigray conflict in Foreign Policy.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joins the incoming Biden administration as climate envoy, Saudi Arabia denies meeting between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn condemns the international community’s approach to the Tigray conflict in Foreign Policy.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Kerry’s Return Signals Coming War on Climate Change
Biden’s technocratic choices for his cabinet have raised eyebrows for their relatively low profiles, but one appointment still retains some big name appeal. John Kerry, last seen in government as the U.S. secretary of state who helped usher in the Iran nuclear deal and Paris climate accords, will soon be back at the White House.
As special presidential envoy for climate, Kerry will take up a post on the White House National Security Council, a move meant to signal how seriously the Biden administration will take the crisis of climate change while also sparing Kerry any Senate confirmation battle.
Kerry is unlikely to be the final Biden choice with a climate change remit outside of their traditional role. Janet Yellen, reported to be Biden’s pick for Treasury secretary, has endorsed a carbon tax as a means to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The news comes as the levels of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere continue to rise. A report by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization released on Monday warned that global lockdowns in the face of COVID-19 have not stemmed the rise of carbon dioxide, and that the dip in carbon emissions estimated for 2020—between 4.2 percent and 7.5 percent—are a “tiny blip” in line with normal fluctuations in carbon emissions observed year on year.
“Climate-related” change. While Biden has now elevated climate change to an issue of national security, the U.S. military has never stopped preparing for the impacts of climate change even as the Trump administration effectively prohibited the use of the term. For example, a 2019 Pentagon report assessed which U.S. military installations were most vulnerable to “climate-related events,” finding 79 that were under threat of either recurrent flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires, or thawing permafrost.
What to expect. In a Dec. 2019 interview with Emily Atkin of the climate newsletter Heated, John Kerry spoke about the launch of the climate initiative World War Zero, (so called, in Kerry’s words, because “we’ve got to treat this like a war”) which gives some insight into his possible big-tent approach.
“We’ve got to start by saying the basic overall plan we can all agree on is we’ve got to get to net zero, low carbon, no carbon economy by 2045, 2050, or earlier,” Kerry said. “The ‘or earlier’ is very important to that discussion, because with the right leadership, we can do this earlier. We could make that happen.”
“But right now, no country in the world is getting the job done. The United States’ emissions are going up this year. Europe’s going up this year. Russia’s going up. China’s going up. And that’s completely, totally unacceptable. We have every reason to be upset about it.”
Asked why he signed up to the World War Zero initiative, his answer could just as well apply to why he is taking this White House job. “Because it wasn’t getting done,” Kerry replied. “Because it’s not happening. Because I’m a person who tries to get things done. And people who know me know there’s a level of impatience that manifests itself in trying to make things happen.”
What We’re Following Today
The meeting that didn’t happen. Saudi Arabia continues to deny that a meeting took place between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite an Israeli government official appearing to confirm that the two met on Sunday along with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
The meeting would be the first-ever publicly known meeting between the two leaders and comes at a time of increased uncertainty for the Saudi kingdom. President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to “reassess” the U.S.-Saudi relationship, including pulling U.S. support for the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen—a withdrawal that has gained bipartisan support. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said that normalization with Israel will only take place once “a permanent and full peace deal” has been reached between Israel and the Palestinians.
Burkina Faso waits on results. More results are expected to be released today in Burkina Faso’s presidential election, following allegations of fraud and voting irregularities by opposition parties. Although many polling stations were closed to avoid targeting by jihadist groups, international observers report no evidence of fraud so far. With just 12 of the country’s 360 districts reporting, incumbent President Roch Kaboré is in the lead. The contest will head to a second round if no candidate garners more than 50 percent of the vote.
Progressives question Flournoy nomination. One of Joe Biden’s likely cabinet picks is facing pushback from the Democratic party’s progressive wing, over past ties to defense contractors and connections to policy decisions on the Middle East during the Obama administration, FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer report. Michèle Flournoy, widely tipped to be named as Biden’s defense secretary, currently serves on the board of Booz Allen Hamilton and, along with Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken, founded a consulting firm that reportedly advises defense firms.
Keep an Eye On
A vaccine for the people? A coronavirus vaccine candidate developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University is 90 percent effective at certain doses, according to the result of late-stage trials. Although the efficacy of the vaccine—now the third to produce promising results—is cause for celebration, its relative ease of distribution and cost gives hope to poorer countries at risk of being shut out by richer countries buying up vaccine stocks. The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaacine can be transported at normal refrigerator temperatures, unlike the mRNA based Pfizer and Moderna vaccines which require super cold temperatures. The price, at roughly $2.50 a dose, is nearly ten times cheaper than the mRNA vaccines.
U.N. fears purge of Tigrayan officers. As the conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and the leaders of the northern Tigray region continues, FP’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer report that the Ethiopian government has allegedly been rounding up ethnic Tigrayan security forces deployed in United Nations and African Union peacekeeping missions abroad and forcing them onto flights to the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa. According to an internal U.N. account, there are fears that they could face torture or death.
Former Ethiopian PM weighs in. Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn argues in an article for Foreign Policy that these violations must be investigated immediately. “If verified, this is a dangerous development and should be condemned in no uncertain terms, and the perpetrators should be brought to justice,” he writes.
However, the primary threat to Ethiopia, Hailemariam argues, is the current leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front who dominated the coalition he led as prime minister from 2012 to 2018—and the international community should not reward their aggression by backing talks that lead to a power-sharing deal. “As well-meaning as many of the voices calling for negotiations are, they also seem to ignore the Machiavellian and deadly machinations of the remnants of the old TPLF regime and are shying away from blaming them for destabilizing the country,” he writes.
Turkey-EU tensions. Turkey summoned the ambassadors of Italy, Germany, and the European Union on Monday to protest the search of a Turkish ship by German forces on an EU mission to enforce an arms embargo on Libya. Turkey maintains that the ship was carrying humanitarian supplies and that German personnel boarded the ship without permission. The German Defense Ministry said nothing suspicious had been found on the ship by the time the German sailors were ordered to leave the ship.
Dutch far-right leader drops out. Thierry Baudet, the leader of the Dutch anti-immigration, anti-European Union party Forum for Democracy (FvD) has removed himself from the running for parliamentary elections in March after party members were found to have made anti-Semitic and homophobic slurs in a closed group chat. Baudet will remain as party chairman. FvD is currently polling in ninth place out of 13 main parties. In March 2019, Thijs Kleinpaste profiled Baudet as the new face of the Dutch far-right.
Odds and Ends China is aiming to be only the third country, after the United States and Soviet Union, to bring lunar material back from the moon. The Chang’e-5 lunar module blasted off from Hainan province on Tuesday on a journey toward Oceanus Procellarum, an unexplored part of the moon. Scientists hope that by analyzing the rock, they will be better able to understand and date other lunar samples in the future. The module, along with 4.5 pounds of lunar material, is expected to land back on Earth in early December.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-24--Ethiopia’s Government and the TPLF Leadership Are Not Morally Equivalent

Ethiopia ’ s Government and the TPLF Leadership Are Not Morally Equivalent Most Ethiopia analysts or so-called experts on the Horn of Africa are busy these days preaching the need for an all-inclusive national dialogue .
They ’ re also calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People ’ s Liberation Front ( TPLF ) .
These seemingly benign calls are at face value noble and well-meaning .
After all , calling for negotiated peace has become the textbook proposal for resolving conflicts , wherever they arise .
I truly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are well-intentioned outsiders who are merely echoing the conventional wisdom of how one should resolve conflicts in Africa .
The key problem in the international community ’ s approach to Ethiopia is the assumption of moral equivalence , which leads foreign governments to adopt an attitude of false balance and bothsidesism .
The problem is that such blanket propositions often don ’ t work .
Indeed , Ethiopia ’ s neighbor South Sudan is a case in point ; it is the archetypal example of how such situations tend to be viewed and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ armed conflict within the ruling party of South Sudan broke out after independence , the peace dialogue that followed resulted solely in a power-sharing arrangement , neglecting proper accountability for the mass killings that had occurred .
The key problem in the international community ’ s initial approach to South Sudan—and now to Ethiopia , which I led as prime minister from 2012 to 2018—is the assumption of moral equivalence , which leads foreign governments to adopt an attitude of false balance and bothsidesism .
Facts and details regarding the true nature of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them are frequently lost in international efforts to broker peace deals that often crumble as soon as they have been signed .
One major component of this formula was to trigger an armed confrontation with the federal government so that the TPLF ’ s current leaders would be able to secure immunity for their past and present misdeeds and a power-sharing scheme through an internationally brokered deal .
Such an agreement would enable the TPLF leadership to exercise influence that exceeds the limited support it enjoys in a country with a population of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upon three premises .
The first premise is the tendency of the international community to ignore complex political and moral realities and call for superficial dialogues that will invariably end up in power-sharing agreements in which rogue actors are rewarded for instigating violence .
The second premise for this strategy is the belief within the TPLF leadership , very often reinforced by the opinion of external analysts and so-called experts , that it is an invincible force that could withstand or even defeat the Ethiopian National Defense Force , as if other Ethiopians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact is all Ethiopians are battle-hardened , not just those in the TPLF .
The conventional wisdom is that the TPLF leadership could ensure that any military confrontation with the federal government will be a long , drawn-out , and protracted affair .
The TPLF leadership and its army are actually locked in from all sides and will have limited capacity to resist the national army .
This borderline-mythical sense that the TPLF leadership is invincible only reinforces its brinkmanship and deadly provocations .
The third factor behind the TPLF leadership ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the seeds of discord and division it has been sowing within the Ethiopian body politic and the army for decades , it could easily prevail in an armed confrontation against the federal government .
Prompted by such miscalculation , the party has now triggered an armed confrontation with the federal government .
The TPLF leadership ’ s illusions about its invincibility and military prowess are now being dispelled rather quickly .
The group ’ s despicable acts against the Northern Command—attacking its bases and seizing military equipment while allegedly ethnically profiling non-Tigrayan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heinous acts against them—have strengthened the resolve of the federal government and many Ethiopians to bring criminal elements within the TPLF to justice .
The only thing going according to plan for the TPLF leadership seems to be the chorus of international personalities and actors calling for a dialogue between the federal government and TPLF leaders .
As well-meaning as many of the voices calling for negotiations are , they also seem to ignore the Machiavellian and deadly machinations of the remnants of the old TPLF regime and are shying away from blaming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the TPLF leadership is guaranteed the impunity it desires through an internationally brokered deal , the cause for justice and sustainable peace will be severely harmed .
Above all , it creates a precedent for other groupings within the Ethiopian federation to learn the wrong lesson : that violence pays off .
The federal government ’ s military operations should be completed as quickly as possible and in a manner that minimizes the humanitarian cost of the campaign and brings TPLF leaders to justice while protecting civilians .
In the meantime , those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leadership should carefully consider the full implications of what they are calling for , as they will be opening a Pandora ’ s box that other ethnic-based groupings are ready to emulate .
Those calling for talks should understand that the very prospect of negotiating with the TPLF ’ s current leadership is an error—as a matter of both principle and prudence .
In the past few days , the true nature of the TPLF leadership has become clear .
A senior spokesperson has publicly admitted that the leadership planned and executed an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those members of the army who resisted , in what he referred to as “ anticipatory self-defense.
” The alleged heinous crimes the TPLF leadership has committed against civilian populations in places like Mai-Kadra—which have been reported by Amnesty International and should be verified by an independent body—would , if confirmed , demonstrate its genocidal desperation .
The rocket strike against the Eritrean capital , Asmara—carried out in a last-ditch attempt to internationalize the conflict—also shows that the TPLF leadership is a threat to the peace and security of the broader region .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ must seek to avoid any civilian casualties and protect all civilians affected by the current conflict .
Access to humanitarian assistance must be allowed in Tigray .
There are also allegations of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans in some corners of federal government entities , and the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should investigate these charges as quickly as possible .
If verified , this is a dangerous development and should be condemned in no uncertain terms , and the perpetrators should be brought to justice .
Ethiopia should be a place where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevail so democratization can progress rather than letting our beloved country slide into chaos .

Most Ethiopia analysts or so-called experts on the Horn of Africa are busy these days preaching the need for an all-inclusive national dialogue. They’re also calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Most Ethiopia analysts or so-called experts on the Horn of Africa are busy these days preaching the need for an all-inclusive national dialogue. They’re also calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
These seemingly benign calls are at face value noble and well-meaning. After all, calling for negotiated peace has become the textbook proposal for resolving conflicts, wherever they arise. I truly believe that most people recommending this approach are well-intentioned outsiders who are merely echoing the conventional wisdom of how one should resolve conflicts in Africa.
The key problem in the international community’s approach to Ethiopia is the assumption of moral equivalence, which leads foreign governments to adopt an attitude of false balance and bothsidesism.
The problem is that such blanket propositions often don’t work. Indeed, Ethiopia’s neighbor South Sudan is a case in point; it is the archetypal example of how such situations tend to be viewed and handled by the international community. When armed conflict within the ruling party of South Sudan broke out after independence, the peace dialogue that followed resulted solely in a power-sharing arrangement, neglecting proper accountability for the mass killings that had occurred.
The key problem in the international community’s initial approach to South Sudan—and now to Ethiopia, which I led as prime minister from 2012 to 2018—is the assumption of moral equivalence, which leads foreign governments to adopt an attitude of false balance and bothsidesism. Facts and details regarding the true nature of conflicts and the forces igniting and driving them are frequently lost in international efforts to broker peace deals that often crumble as soon as they have been signed.
I confess, a TPLF-dominated coalition ruled Ethiopia shrewdly for 27 years. After being forced to give up the reins of power due to popular protests against our economic and political mismanagement—which I was a part of—the TPLF leadership designed and is now executing a strategy meant to capitalize on the propensity of the international community to fall into its default mode of bothsidesism and calls for a negotiated settlement. The TPLF’s leaders are savvy operators who know how susceptible the international community is to such manipulation.
One major component of this formula was to trigger an armed confrontation with the federal government so that the TPLF’s current leaders would be able to secure immunity for their past and present misdeeds and a power-sharing scheme through an internationally brokered deal. Such an agreement would enable the TPLF leadership to exercise influence that exceeds the limited support it enjoys in a country with a population of 110 million. This strategy is contingent upon three premises.
The first premise is the tendency of the international community to ignore complex political and moral realities and call for superficial dialogues that will invariably end up in power-sharing agreements in which rogue actors are rewarded for instigating violence.
The second premise for this strategy is the belief within the TPLF leadership, very often reinforced by the opinion of external analysts and so-called experts, that it is an invincible force that could withstand or even defeat the Ethiopian National Defense Force, as if other Ethiopians are inferior to its members. The fact is all Ethiopians are battle-hardened, not just those in the TPLF. The conventional wisdom is that the TPLF leadership could ensure that any military confrontation with the federal government will be a long, drawn-out, and protracted affair. The TPLF leadership and its army are actually locked in from all sides and will have limited capacity to resist the national army. This borderline-mythical sense that the TPLF leadership is invincible only reinforces its brinkmanship and deadly provocations.
The third factor behind the TPLF leadership’s arrogance is its assumption that, due to the seeds of discord and division it has been sowing within the Ethiopian body politic and the army for decades, it could easily prevail in an armed confrontation against the federal government. Prompted by such miscalculation, the party has now triggered an armed confrontation with the federal government.
The TPLF leadership’s illusions about its invincibility and military prowess are now being dispelled rather quickly. The group’s despicable acts against the Northern Command—attacking its bases and seizing military equipment while allegedly ethnically profiling non-Tigrayan members of the national army and committing heinous acts against them—have strengthened the resolve of the federal government and many Ethiopians to bring criminal elements within the TPLF to justice.
The only thing going according to plan for the TPLF leadership seems to be the chorus of international personalities and actors calling for a dialogue between the federal government and TPLF leaders. As well-meaning as many of the voices calling for negotiations are, they also seem to ignore the Machiavellian and deadly machinations of the remnants of the old TPLF regime and are shying away from blaming them for destabilizing the country.
If the TPLF leadership is guaranteed the impunity it desires through an internationally brokered deal, the cause for justice and sustainable peace will be severely harmed. Above all, it creates a precedent for other groupings within the Ethiopian federation to learn the wrong lesson: that violence pays off.
The federal government’s military operations should be completed as quickly as possible and in a manner that minimizes the humanitarian cost of the campaign and brings TPLF leaders to justice while protecting civilians. In the meantime, those who are advocating dialogue with the TPLF leadership should carefully consider the full implications of what they are calling for, as they will be opening a Pandora’s box that other ethnic-based groupings are ready to emulate. Those calling for talks should understand that the very prospect of negotiating with the TPLF’s current leadership is an error—as a matter of both principle and prudence.
In the past few days, the true nature of the TPLF leadership has become clear. A senior spokesperson has publicly admitted that the leadership planned and executed an attack against the Northern Command, massacring those members of the army who resisted, in what he referred to as “anticipatory self-defense.” The alleged heinous crimes the TPLF leadership has committed against civilian populations in places like Mai-Kadra—which have been reported by Amnesty International and should be verified by an independent body—would, if confirmed, demonstrate its genocidal desperation.
The rocket strike against the Eritrean capital, Asmara—carried out in a last-ditch attempt to internationalize the conflict—also shows that the TPLF leadership is a threat to the peace and security of the broader region.
Ethiopians should not be expected to embrace such a sinister and dangerous party in the guise of a so-called all-inclusive dialogue. The TPLF leadership, as it stands, is nothing more than a criminal enterprise that should not be included in any dialogue meant to chart the future of Ethiopia. Peace-loving members of the TPLF party and the people of the Tigray region at large, along with other Ethiopians, are the true owners of a democratic Ethiopia.
For its part, the federal government must seek to avoid any civilian casualties and protect all civilians affected by the current conflict. Access to humanitarian assistance must be allowed in Tigray. There are also allegations of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans in some corners of federal government entities, and the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should investigate these charges as quickly as possible. If verified, this is a dangerous development and should be condemned in no uncertain terms, and the perpetrators should be brought to justice.
Ethiopia should be a place where the constitution and the rule of law prevail so democratization can progress rather than letting our beloved country slide into chaos.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-24--This Is How a Constitution Dies

This Is How a Constitution Dies

This Is How a Constitution Dies Before U.S. elected officials ( including presidents ) , judges , government employees , and military personnel assume their positions , they make a pledge .
This shared promise is not to protect the United States ’ way of life , secure its national interests , defend its sovereign territory , or even to “ keep the American people safe , ” as former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama often inaccurately claimed .
Rather , each person undertakes a solemn oath to “ support and defend the Constitution of the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Preserving the Constitution is the overriding obligation of all government employees , because the document serves as the supreme law of the land .
The evolving text enshrines the basic rights of Americans , and the limits and expectations of the states and branches of federal government .
It was designed by the Founding Fathers to supersede and endure beyond the current whims of any elected leaders , judges , or other sources of power .
National security and military personnel commit to protecting the Constitution above all else , because without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or objectives truly matter .
The shared pledge to protect and defend the Constitution is worth highlighting to mark and appreciate this current national crisis for what it is : an effort led by the president to overturn the outcome of an election in which the president was a candidate .
This overt undertaking is completely in character with President Donald Trump , totally unprecedented in U.S. history , and far more insidious than all the recent efforts of foreign electoral interference .
A short list of Trump ’ s contemptible behaviors since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims about voting irregularities , hired lawyers to file absolutely meritless lawsuits that sought to disenfranchise millions of Americans , attempted to bully state and local officials who fulfilled their obligations to certify voter outcomes , threatened to withhold support to governors that refused to cooperate with the undemocratic scheme , fired government officials who had successfully protected voting infrastructure and countered ludicrous misinformation with clear facts , and more generally attacked the integrity of the entire electoral process .
Perhaps worse than the president ’ s own actions is how the vast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abandoning their own oaths of office .
They have cheered on Trump ’ s easily debunked and conspiratorial claims , pledged money to the president ’ s legal efforts , threatened state voting officials or asked those officials to shirk their duties , or hidden behind the more neutral position that bogus legal contests and unprecedented voter audits should be allowed to run their course—challenges which are comically pathetic and seemingly endless .
If a defeated Democratic president mirrored Trump ’ s actions , the GOP would rightly condemn that person for sedition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defining vice of politics and the trademark of unprincipled politicians .
While some have framed this collective shirking of duty as choosing “ party over country , ” it is actually far more cowardly .
Most Republican politicians and officials would rather protect themselves from an outgoing president ’ s aggressive tweet than protect the U.S. Constitution .
They prefer to pretend Trump ’ s efforts are normal or acceptable , rather than assure an orderly transition to President-elect Joe Biden ’ s administration .
These Republicans are neither principled , partisan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scared of Trump .
The seriousness of any attempted crime ( in this case seditious conspiracy ) is not lessened because the perpetrators were buffoons or the scheme wildly unrealistic .
Journalists and scholars wisely sounded the alarm about the numerous ways that Trump could contest the election results or refuse to concede to his challenger .
But those journalists and scholars could not have appreciated the utter incompetence of Trump ’ s so-called elite strike force team , which was supposed to uncover shocking evidence of rampant and deliberate election fraud .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ been as ineffective as it is embarrassing—since there was no widespread fraud to uncover .
Yet the intent of Trump , his party ’ s supplicants , and his comic legal team has been clear from the beginning .
These domestic enemies plotted and pursued an undisguised attack on the Constitution of the United States .
In time , historians will piece together a more complete picture of how this attack was brazenly attempted and ultimately defeated—a history that could be even more absurd and harebrained than we presently comprehend .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president has been trying to achieve .
It may seem funny , but cumulatively it represents the greatest threat to the Constitution since the Civil War .

Before U.S. elected officials (including presidents), judges, government employees, and military personnel assume their positions, they make a pledge. This shared promise is not to protect the United States’ way of life, secure its national interests, defend its sovereign territory, or even to “keep the American people safe,” as former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama often inaccurately claimed. Rather, each person undertakes a solemn oath to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”
Before U.S. elected officials (including presidents), judges, government employees, and military personnel assume their positions, they make a pledge. This shared promise is not to protect the United States’ way of life, secure its national interests, defend its sovereign territory, or even to “keep the American people safe,” as former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama often inaccurately claimed. Rather, each person undertakes a solemn oath to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”
Preserving the Constitution is the overriding obligation of all government employees, because the document serves as the supreme law of the land. The evolving text enshrines the basic rights of Americans, and the limits and expectations of the states and branches of federal government. It was designed by the Founding Fathers to supersede and endure beyond the current whims of any elected leaders, judges, or other sources of power. National security and military personnel commit to protecting the Constitution above all else, because without its preservation none of their other missions or objectives truly matter.
The shared pledge to protect and defend the Constitution is worth highlighting to mark and appreciate this current national crisis for what it is: an effort led by the president to overturn the outcome of an election in which the president was a candidate. This overt undertaking is completely in character with President Donald Trump, totally unprecedented in U.S. history, and far more insidious than all the recent efforts of foreign electoral interference.
A short list of Trump’s contemptible behaviors since Nov. 3: He has retweeted unfounded claims about voting irregularities, hired lawyers to file absolutely meritless lawsuits that sought to disenfranchise millions of Americans, attempted to bully state and local officials who fulfilled their obligations to certify voter outcomes, threatened to withhold support to governors that refused to cooperate with the undemocratic scheme, fired government officials who had successfully protected voting infrastructure and countered ludicrous misinformation with clear facts, and more generally attacked the integrity of the entire electoral process.
Perhaps worse than the president’s own actions is how the vast majority of Republicans have debased themselves by abandoning their own oaths of office. They have cheered on Trump’s easily debunked and conspiratorial claims, pledged money to the president’s legal efforts, threatened state voting officials or asked those officials to shirk their duties, or hidden behind the more neutral position that bogus legal contests and unprecedented voter audits should be allowed to run their course—challenges which are comically pathetic and seemingly endless. If a defeated Democratic president mirrored Trump’s actions, the GOP would rightly condemn that person for sedition or treason. But hypocrisy is a defining vice of politics and the trademark of unprincipled politicians.
While some have framed this collective shirking of duty as choosing “party over country,” it is actually far more cowardly. Most Republican politicians and officials would rather protect themselves from an outgoing president’s aggressive tweet than protect the U.S. Constitution. They prefer to pretend Trump’s efforts are normal or acceptable, rather than assure an orderly transition to President-elect Joe Biden’s administration. These Republicans are neither principled, partisan, nor even power-hungry; they are merely scared of Trump.
The seriousness of any attempted crime (in this case seditious conspiracy) is not lessened because the perpetrators were buffoons or the scheme wildly unrealistic. Journalists and scholars wisely sounded the alarm about the numerous ways that Trump could contest the election results or refuse to concede to his challenger. But those journalists and scholars could not have appreciated the utter incompetence of Trump’s so-called elite strike force team, which was supposed to uncover shocking evidence of rampant and deliberate election fraud. Thankfully, the purported elite team has been as ineffective as it is embarrassing—since there was no widespread fraud to uncover.
Yet the intent of Trump, his party’s supplicants, and his comic legal team has been clear from the beginning. These domestic enemies plotted and pursued an undisguised attack on the Constitution of the United States. In time, historians will piece together a more complete picture of how this attack was brazenly attempted and ultimately defeated—a history that could be even more absurd and harebrained than we presently comprehend. However, today Americans should fully recognize what the president has been trying to achieve. It may seem funny, but cumulatively it represents the greatest threat to the Constitution since the Civil War.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-25--Maradona, Soccer’s Brilliant, Troubled Superstar, Dead at 60

Diego Armando Maradona , the soccer star who led Argentina to its second World Cup title in 1986 , died Wednesday at age 60 from a heart attack .
Considered by many one of the greatest players of all time , Maradona lived a life marked by on-field glory , off-field scandals , and political activism .
A poor boy from the slums of Buenos Aires , Maradona left his footprint on some of the world ’ s most well-regarded soccer teams , such as Barcelona , Napoli , and his personal favorite Boca Juniors , but he never forgot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the 1990s supported the pro-market populist Carlos Menem and the neoliberal reforms he aspired to implement as president of Argentina saw his politics increasingly shift to the left over time .
The Argentine star died on the same date as the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro , a personal friend and one of his political models .
Castro , who had been friends with Maradona at least since the late 1980s , invited the player to receive treatment in Cuba after Maradona almost died of a cocaine overdose in 2000 .
Maradona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Cuban people , and he had tattoos of the comandante , whom he described as a “ God , ” and his Argentine confidant Che Guevara .
“ Diego is [ a ] great friend and very noble too , ” Castro once said .
“ There ’ s also no question he ’ s a wonderful athlete and has maintained a friendship with Cuba to no material gain of his own.
” “ Forever Diego , we love you very much , ” former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death .
Sharing a picture of himself with Maradona and Brazil ’ s then-foreign affairs minister , former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recognized the political role the soccer legend played in Latin America .
“ Diego Armando Maradona was a soccer giant , from Argentina and from the world , a unique talent and personality , ” Lula wrote .
“ His geniality and passion in the field , his intensity in life and his commitment to Latin American sovereignty marked our time .
… I can only thank you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But Maradona ’ s legacy wasn ’ t just felt later in life due to his political activism .
He nearly single-handedly helped Argentina recover its confidence in the mid-1980s after a failed war against the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands .
His legendary performance against England in the 1986 World Cup was both a personal triumph and a big win for an Argentina that sorely needed one .

Diego Armando Maradona, the soccer star who led Argentina to its second World Cup title in 1986, died Wednesday at age 60 from a heart attack. Considered by many one of the greatest players of all time, Maradona lived a life marked by on-field glory, off-field scandals, and political activism.
Diego Armando Maradona, the soccer star who led Argentina to its second World Cup title in 1986, died Wednesday at age 60 from a heart attack. Considered by many one of the greatest players of all time, Maradona lived a life marked by on-field glory, off-field scandals, and political activism.
A poor boy from the slums of Buenos Aires, Maradona left his footprint on some of the world’s most well-regarded soccer teams, such as Barcelona, Napoli, and his personal favorite Boca Juniors, but he never forgot his humble upbringing. The player who in the 1990s supported the pro-market populist Carlos Menem and the neoliberal reforms he aspired to implement as president of Argentina saw his politics increasingly shift to the left over time.
The Argentine star died on the same date as the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro, a personal friend and one of his political models. Castro, who had been friends with Maradona at least since the late 1980s, invited the player to receive treatment in Cuba after Maradona almost died of a cocaine overdose in 2000.
Maradona later dedicated his biography to Castro and the Cuban people, and he had tattoos of the comandante, whom he described as a “God,” and his Argentine confidant Che Guevara. “Diego is [a] great friend and very noble too,” Castro once said. “There’s also no question he’s a wonderful athlete and has maintained a friendship with Cuba to no material gain of his own.”
“Forever Diego, we love you very much,” former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wrote on Twitter on the news of his death. Sharing a picture of himself with Maradona and Brazil’s then-foreign affairs minister, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recognized the political role the soccer legend played in Latin America.
“Diego Armando Maradona was a soccer giant, from Argentina and from the world, a unique talent and personality,” Lula wrote. “His geniality and passion in the field, his intensity in life and his commitment to Latin American sovereignty marked our time. … I can only thank you for your solidarity with popular causes.”
But Maradona’s legacy wasn’t just felt later in life due to his political activism. He nearly single-handedly helped Argentina recover its confidence in the mid-1980s after a failed war against the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands. His legendary performance against England in the 1986 World Cup was both a personal triumph and a big win for an Argentina that sorely needed one.