foreignpolicy--2020-12-09--Senate Effort to Stop Trump Arms Sales to UAE Fails

The U.S. Senate narrowly struck down legislation that would block billions of dollars ’ worth of arms sales to the United Arab Emirates , marking the latest showdown between the White House and lawmakers over America ’ s relationship with Persian Gulf countries involved in the deadly conflict in Yemen .
The Senate voted 49 to 47 against the resolution that would block the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE and 50 to 46 against blocking the sale of MQ-9 Reaper drones to the UAE .
The outcome of the vote dashed hopes for some lawmakers to offer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s aggressive arms sales policies in the final weeks of his administration .
The vote fell mostly on party lines , with Democrats supporting the measure and Republicans against it , sending a stark signal to the incoming Biden administration about his party ’ s opposition to the sales .
Though the resolutions stood little chance of blocking the sales even if passed—Trump threatened to veto the measures if it came across his desk—lawmakers proceeded with the vote anyway .
Congressional aides said the move was meant to lay down a marker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signal to the incoming administration that they are unlikely to support U.S. arms sales to the Gulf and U.S. military support for the Saudi- and UAE-led coalition in Yemen .
The vote distilled years of fierce debates over some of the Trump administration ’ s most controversial foreign-policy priorities : its cozy relationship with Gulf countries , the president ’ s authorities to engage in military activities abroad without prior congressional approval , the administration ’ s hard-line policies toward Iran , and U.S. involvement in the conflict in Yemen , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world .
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut , speaking on the Senate floor on Wednesday , said he opposed the arms sales because they did not go through proper Congressional review channels and the administration hadn ’ t adequately addressed concerns from lawmakers about how the UAE would handle high-end U.S. military technology .
He also urged Republicans to back the measure , saying they would want such buy-in when President-elect Joe Biden , a Democrat , takes the White House in January .
“ Believe me , my Republican colleagues are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic administration comes into office .
You ’ re not going to want to send a signal today to the Biden administration that they don ’ t have to consult with you as the majority party potentially in 2021 , ” Murphy said .
Lawmakers who supported the arms sales said it was critical for deterrence against Iran and would not undercut Israel ’ s military superiority in the region .
“ These sales can provide a critical deterrent against Iran ’ s increasing threats to UAE and others , especially following the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they send a clear message to Russia and China that the United States remains the preferred partner in the region , ” Sen. Jim Risch , the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee , told Foreign Policy .
“ These sales are representative of already changing dynamics in a historically troubled region , and Congress should support them.
” The Biden administration is expected to face pressure from the outset to extricate the United States from involvement in the war in Yemen , which consists of arms sales , logistics , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UAE-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels .
“ Congress and the incoming Biden administration should do all they can to halt these arms sales and make a cease-fire and political settlement their top priority in Yemen , ” said Scott Paul , a humanitarian policy expert at Oxfam America .
The arms sales , to the tune of nearly $ 23.4 billion , includes 50 F-35s , 18 MQ-9 Reaper drones , and $ 10 billion worth of munitions .
Once finalized , the UAE will become the second country in the region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. stealth fighters—and the first Arab country to do so .
The State Department approved the sale in November , following the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between the UAE and Israel , the United States ’ closest historic ally in the region .
Within days , Sens .
Bob Menendez , a Democrat ; Rand Paul , a Republican ; and Murphy put forward resolutions to block the sales .
Rep. Ilhan Omar , a Minnesota Democrat , put forward similar resolutions on the House side .
Even before the vote , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it passed .
Overriding the veto would have required a two-thirds majority in the Senate .
Supporters of the arms sale also included former senior administration officials who had clashed with the president on other policy issues—though not his hawkish policies toward Iran .
“ U.S .
weapons are needed more urgently to defend against Iran ’ s threat in the Gulf , ” John Bolton , Trump ’ s former national security advisor , wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed ahead of the Senate vote .
Bolton and others argue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen , where around 16 million people are on the brink of famine .
Former Defense Secretary James Mattis has also privately tried to convince wary senators to back the arms sales , as the Huffington Post reported on Tuesday .
Opponents of the sales argue that , in addition to exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Yemen , such arms transfers could expose sensitive U.S. military technology to foreign adversaries like Russia and China , given the two countries ’ ties with the UAE .
Human rights watchdogs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabia of misusing U.S. weapons and indiscriminately targeting civilians during its military campaigns in Yemen against the Houthi rebels .
A CNN investigation in 2019 found that Saudi Arabia and the UAE transferred U.S.-made weapons to fighters in Yemen who were linked to al Qaeda and hard-line Salafi militias .
The UAE government has denied these allegations .
The Trump administration cleared the UAE of wrongdoing after an internal investigation , CNN reported in May .
But some lawmakers , including Murphy , said they still have unanswered questions and do not believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Even those who would be open to selling weapons to the UAE broadly speaking are concerned by how unique the case of F-35s are and how quickly this sale is being pushed through , ” said Elana DeLozier , an expert on Yemen at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy , a think tank .
“ They ’ re concerned about the speed of the push in part because they feel the questions raised about potential UAE tech transfers in Yemen weren ’ t sufficiently answered.
” The UAE Embassy in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead of the scheduled vote this week , responding to criticism from Murphy on Twitter that descriptions of the UAE having close partnerships with Russia and China is a “ gross overstatement.
” “ The UAE need for advanced drones is a response to their growing sophistication and deployment by adversaries across the region , including Iran and non-state actors .
They are critical to the UAE ’ s defense just as they are to the US and other partners , ” the UAE Embassy tweeted .
“ We would rather have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it from other sources , even if less capable.
” The embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment .
The UAE drew down the bulk of its forces in Yemen in 2019 , after nearly five years of impasse in the conflict there .
While the UAE doesn ’ t publicly broadcast its force posture in Yemen , experts and analysts estimate that the country keeps several hundred troops in southern Yemen , primarily for counterterrorism operations .
The UAE also provides integral support to the Southern Transitional Council , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in a tenuous alliance with the internationally recognized Yemeni government .
But even though the outgoing Trump administration and the incoming Biden administration have pledged to continue normalization between Israel and Arab nations like the UAE , the failed vote shows the increasing willingness of Congress to challenge U.S. arms sales to the Gulf on a bipartisan basis , owing to anger over the Saudi-led war in Yemen .
After Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Menendez had held up sales of precision-guided munitions to the UAE and Saudi Arabia for more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in May 2019 forced through the $ 8 billion in sales using emergency authorities , overriding a congressional resolution of disapproval from a majority of lawmakers .
That emergency declaration—which used a pathway meant to provide weapons to allies facing imminent military threats—has come under increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and government watchdogs in recent months .
In a letter earlier this year , House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel and fellow Democratic panel member Rep. Andy Levin accused Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of directing “ the invention ” of an emergency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s own inspector general said in an August report that Pompeo had acted within his legal authority to declare the emergency to fast-track the sale , but he did not properly account for humanitarian concerns stemming from the Saudi-led air war in Yemen .

The U.S. Senate narrowly struck down legislation that would block billions of dollars’ worth of arms sales to the United Arab Emirates, marking the latest showdown between the White House and lawmakers over America’s relationship with Persian Gulf countries involved in the deadly conflict in Yemen.
The U.S. Senate narrowly struck down legislation that would block billions of dollars’ worth of arms sales to the United Arab Emirates, marking the latest showdown between the White House and lawmakers over America’s relationship with Persian Gulf countries involved in the deadly conflict in Yemen.
The Senate voted 49 to 47 against the resolution that would block the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE and 50 to 46 against blocking the sale of MQ-9 Reaper drones to the UAE. The outcome of the vote dashed hopes for some lawmakers to offer a final rebuke of the Trump administration’s aggressive arms sales policies in the final weeks of his administration.
The vote fell mostly on party lines, with Democrats supporting the measure and Republicans against it, sending a stark signal to the incoming Biden administration about his party’s opposition to the sales.
Though the resolutions stood little chance of blocking the sales even if passed—Trump threatened to veto the measures if it came across his desk—lawmakers proceeded with the vote anyway. Congressional aides said the move was meant to lay down a marker for the administration and to send a signal to the incoming administration that they are unlikely to support U.S. arms sales to the Gulf and U.S. military support for the Saudi- and UAE-led coalition in Yemen.
The vote distilled years of fierce debates over some of the Trump administration’s most controversial foreign-policy priorities: its cozy relationship with Gulf countries, the president’s authorities to engage in military activities abroad without prior congressional approval, the administration’s hard-line policies toward Iran, and U.S. involvement in the conflict in Yemen, which is considered the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, speaking on the Senate floor on Wednesday, said he opposed the arms sales because they did not go through proper Congressional review channels and the administration hadn’t adequately addressed concerns from lawmakers about how the UAE would handle high-end U.S. military technology.
He also urged Republicans to back the measure, saying they would want such buy-in when President-elect Joe Biden, a Democrat, takes the White House in January.
“Believe me, my Republican colleagues are going to want that right when a Democratic administration comes into office. You’re not going to want to send a signal today to the Biden administration that they don’t have to consult with you as the majority party potentially in 2021,” Murphy said.
Lawmakers who supported the arms sales said it was critical for deterrence against Iran and would not undercut Israel’s military superiority in the region. “These sales can provide a critical deterrent against Iran’s increasing threats to UAE and others, especially following the lapse of the arms embargo, and they send a clear message to Russia and China that the United States remains the preferred partner in the region,” Sen. Jim Risch, the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Foreign Policy. “These sales are representative of already changing dynamics in a historically troubled region, and Congress should support them.”
The Biden administration is expected to face pressure from the outset to extricate the United States from involvement in the war in Yemen, which consists of arms sales, logistics, and intelligence support to the Saudi- and UAE-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
“Congress and the incoming Biden administration should do all they can to halt these arms sales and make a cease-fire and political settlement their top priority in Yemen,” said Scott Paul, a humanitarian policy expert at Oxfam America.
The arms sales, to the tune of nearly $23.4 billion, includes 50 F-35s, 18 MQ-9 Reaper drones, and $10 billion worth of munitions. Once finalized, the UAE will become the second country in the region, after Israel, to obtain high-end U.S. stealth fighters—and the first Arab country to do so.
The State Department approved the sale in November, following the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between the UAE and Israel, the United States’ closest historic ally in the region. Within days, Sens. Bob Menendez, a Democrat; Rand Paul, a Republican; and Murphy put forward resolutions to block the sales. Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, put forward similar resolutions on the House side.
Even before the vote, Trump signaled he would veto the legislation if it passed. Overriding the veto would have required a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
Supporters of the arms sale also included former senior administration officials who had clashed with the president on other policy issues—though not his hawkish policies toward Iran.
“U.S. weapons are needed more urgently to defend against Iran’s threat in the Gulf,” John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor, wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed ahead of the Senate vote. Bolton and others argue that withholding weapons sales will not improve the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen, where around 16 million people are on the brink of famine. Former Defense Secretary James Mattis has also privately tried to convince wary senators to back the arms sales, as the Huffington Post reported on Tuesday.
Opponents of the sales argue that, in addition to exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, such arms transfers could expose sensitive U.S. military technology to foreign adversaries like Russia and China, given the two countries’ ties with the UAE.
Human rights watchdogs have accused both the UAE and Saudi Arabia of misusing U.S. weapons and indiscriminately targeting civilians during its military campaigns in Yemen against the Houthi rebels. A CNN investigation in 2019 found that Saudi Arabia and the UAE transferred U.S.-made weapons to fighters in Yemen who were linked to al Qaeda and hard-line Salafi militias. The UAE government has denied these allegations. The Trump administration cleared the UAE of wrongdoing after an internal investigation, CNN reported in May. But some lawmakers, including Murphy, said they still have unanswered questions and do not believe the matter has been fully resolved.
“Even those who would be open to selling weapons to the UAE broadly speaking are concerned by how unique the case of F-35s are and how quickly this sale is being pushed through,” said Elana DeLozier, an expert on Yemen at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank. “They’re concerned about the speed of the push in part because they feel the questions raised about potential UAE tech transfers in Yemen weren’t sufficiently answered.”
The UAE Embassy in Washington has rejected criticisms from Democratic lawmakers ahead of the scheduled vote this week, responding to criticism from Murphy on Twitter that descriptions of the UAE having close partnerships with Russia and China is a “gross overstatement.”
“The UAE need for advanced drones is a response to their growing sophistication and deployment by adversaries across the region, including Iran and non-state actors. They are critical to the UAE’s defense just as they are to the US and other partners,” the UAE Embassy tweeted. “We would rather have the best US-equipment or we will reluctantly find it from other sources, even if less capable.”
The embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The UAE drew down the bulk of its forces in Yemen in 2019, after nearly five years of impasse in the conflict there. While the UAE doesn’t publicly broadcast its force posture in Yemen, experts and analysts estimate that the country keeps several hundred troops in southern Yemen, primarily for counterterrorism operations. The UAE also provides integral support to the Southern Transitional Council, a separatist group in southern Yemen that is in a tenuous alliance with the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
But even though the outgoing Trump administration and the incoming Biden administration have pledged to continue normalization between Israel and Arab nations like the UAE, the failed vote shows the increasing willingness of Congress to challenge U.S. arms sales to the Gulf on a bipartisan basis, owing to anger over the Saudi-led war in Yemen. After Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Menendez had held up sales of precision-guided munitions to the UAE and Saudi Arabia for more than a year, the Trump administration in May 2019 forced through the $8 billion in sales using emergency authorities, overriding a congressional resolution of disapproval from a majority of lawmakers.
That emergency declaration—which used a pathway meant to provide weapons to allies facing imminent military threats—has come under increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and government watchdogs in recent months. In a letter earlier this year, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel and fellow Democratic panel member Rep. Andy Levin accused Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of directing “the invention” of an emergency in April 2019. The State Department’s own inspector general said in an August report that Pompeo had acted within his legal authority to declare the emergency to fast-track the sale, but he did not properly account for humanitarian concerns stemming from the Saudi-led air war in Yemen.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-09--Biden Defends Choice of Austin for Defense Secretary

This article is part of The Biden Transition , Foreign Policy ’ s ongoing coverage of how U.S. President-elect Joe Biden builds a new White House administration—and what the new team ’ s policies might be .
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden used his introduction of Secretary of Defense-designate Lloyd Austin to defend the retired Army general ’ s record on civil-military relations , after the pick was met with a storm of skepticism on Capitol Hill and in the national security community over increasing challenges to civilian control of the armed forces .
If confirmed by Congress , Austin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden during the Obama administration , would mark the second recently retired general in the past four years to become defense secretary .
He would also be the first Black person to hold the job .
Other top contenders for the role were Michèle Flournoy , who served as the Pentagon ’ s policy chief under President Barack Obama , and Jeh Johnson , the first Black person to head up the Department of Homeland Security .
Biden urged the Senate to waive a legal requirement that calls for officers to wait seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chief , invoking the extraordinary challenges awaiting the new administration on Inauguration Day—especially the distribution of a coronavirus vaccine .
“ There ’ s a good reason for this law that I fully understand and respect .
I would not be asking for this exception if I did not believe this moment in our history didn ’ t call for it and if I didn ’ t have the faith I have in Lloyd Austin to ask for it , ” Biden said .
“ I believe in the importance of civilian control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary-designate Austin.
” Though Biden has championed the historic nature of the pick and Austin ’ s logistical acumen , some see personal ties dictating the move .
Biden ’ s late son Beau also served under Austin in Iraq as a member of the Delaware National Guard , and Austin was seen as a team player .
“ [ Austin ] wasn ’ t getting great decisions on whether we were going to leave a follow-on force , ” said Thomas Spoehr , a retired Army lieutenant general who served as Austin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ There was nothing coming back from Washington , D.C. , on that , and he worked with that .
He didn ’ t say , ‘ Woe is me , ’ and those tough days endeared him to [ Vice President ] Biden.
” Spoehr said that the then-general enjoyed a strong partnership with civilians on the ground , such as then-U.S .
Ambassador to Iraq Jim Jeffrey , and looped in State Department personnel at meetings on even the smallest military issues , such as the sequencing of convoys out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pledges to uphold civilian leadership at the Pentagon , Wednesday ’ s rollout saw Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris repeatedly refer to Austin as “ Gen .
Austin.
” That ’ s the same title President Donald Trump used with former Defense Secretary James Mattis , and it is a frequent complaint of civilian officials who have seen an increasing blurring of lines between military and civilian leadership .
Austin succeeded Mattis as the head of U.S. Central Command in 2013 .
“ As a commander , chain of command means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one former defense official who served in Mattis ’ s Pentagon said .
“ But the Pentagon is a consensus-driven organization—almost a completely different animal—which is why people called it ‘ Pentacom ’ during Mattis ’ s time .
He ran it like a [ combatant command ] and it created a lot of churn.
” Mattis , who civilians said cut career officials out of major conversations while working closely with then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford , also brought in a team that was familiar to him at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Kevin Sweeney .
And like Austin , Mattis ’ s formative years were spent in the Middle East—a theater the United States is trying to exit—but not as much in the Pacific , where the rise of China now presents the major strategic challenge .
“ Not only were they only loyal to Mattis but they only had experiences in the Middle East , ” the former official said .
“ So when we started sending up memos [ that said ] we need to do a [ Freedom of Navigation Operation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get comfortable with making the decision.
” The pick could be uncomfortable for many of Biden ’ s team and Senate Democrats .
In 2017 , Kathleen Hicks , a former principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy during the Obama administration who now heads up Biden ’ s Pentagon transition effort , testified against granting Mattis a waiver to serve as defense secretary .
Though some Democrats , such as Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Jack Reed , have backed off of previous threats not to support another waiver , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Richard Blumenthal , told reporters this week he would not vote for a waiver to allow Austin to serve as defense secretary .
Former officials said the selection could further future political considerations for senior military selections , undermining the apolitical nature of the military .
Still , despite internal skepticism about the waiver , former officials expect Biden ’ s team to eventually fall in line with the planned nomination .
“ No one is going to sit around and get in a pissing contest , ” said Jim Townsend , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of defense for Europe and NATO from 2009 to 2017 .
“ We ’ re all here to help the secretary of defense.
” While Biden has championed Austin ’ s logistical aptitude in aiding the 2011 pullout from Iraq , the retired four-star would bring relatively little expertise on China , seen by the Pentagon as the top U.S. national security threat .
Biden ’ s recent article defending Austin in the Atlantic made no mention of Beijing , sparking criticism from architects of the Trump administration ’ s National Defense Strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts to great-power contests like that with China .
Austin has also faced criticism for his management of the fight to defeat the Islamic State after U.S. forces redeployed in 2014 .
Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter recalled that Austin ’ s plan to retake the caliphate ’ s capital of Mosul was “ entirely unrealistic ” and relied on Iraqi units “ that barely existed on paper , let alone in reality.
” He was also the target of scrutiny from the late Sen. John McCain at a 2015 hearing when he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to train and equip Syrian opposition forces had yielded just four or five fighters .

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden used his introduction of Secretary of Defense-designate Lloyd Austin to defend the retired Army general’s record on civil-military relations, after the pick was met with a storm of skepticism on Capitol Hill and in the national security community over increasing challenges to civilian control of the armed forces.
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden used his introduction of Secretary of Defense-designate Lloyd Austin to defend the retired Army general’s record on civil-military relations, after the pick was met with a storm of skepticism on Capitol Hill and in the national security community over increasing challenges to civilian control of the armed forces.
If confirmed by Congress, Austin, who enjoyed strong ties with then-Vice President Biden during the Obama administration, would mark the second recently retired general in the past four years to become defense secretary. He would also be the first Black person to hold the job. Other top contenders for the role were Michèle Flournoy, who served as the Pentagon’s policy chief under President Barack Obama, and Jeh Johnson, the first Black person to head up the Department of Homeland Security.
Biden urged the Senate to waive a legal requirement that calls for officers to wait seven years after retirement to serve as Pentagon chief, invoking the extraordinary challenges awaiting the new administration on Inauguration Day—especially the distribution of a coronavirus vaccine.
“There’s a good reason for this law that I fully understand and respect. I would not be asking for this exception if I did not believe this moment in our history didn’t call for it and if I didn’t have the faith I have in Lloyd Austin to ask for it,” Biden said. “I believe in the importance of civilian control of the military. So does the Secretary-designate Austin.”
Though Biden has championed the historic nature of the pick and Austin’s logistical acumen, some see personal ties dictating the move. Biden’s late son Beau also served under Austin in Iraq as a member of the Delaware National Guard, and Austin was seen as a team player.
“[Austin] wasn’t getting great decisions on whether we were going to leave a follow-on force,” said Thomas Spoehr, a retired Army lieutenant general who served as Austin’s deputy during the U.S. drawdown. “There was nothing coming back from Washington, D.C., on that, and he worked with that. He didn’t say, ‘Woe is me,’ and those tough days endeared him to [Vice President] Biden.”
Spoehr said that the then-general enjoyed a strong partnership with civilians on the ground, such as then-U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Jim Jeffrey, and looped in State Department personnel at meetings on even the smallest military issues, such as the sequencing of convoys out of Iraq.
Yet in spite of the pledges to uphold civilian leadership at the Pentagon, Wednesday’s rollout saw Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris repeatedly refer to Austin as “Gen. Austin.” That’s the same title President Donald Trump used with former Defense Secretary James Mattis, and it is a frequent complaint of civilian officials who have seen an increasing blurring of lines between military and civilian leadership. Austin succeeded Mattis as the head of U.S. Central Command in 2013.
“As a commander, chain of command means people must follow your direction,” one former defense official who served in Mattis’s Pentagon said. “But the Pentagon is a consensus-driven organization—almost a completely different animal—which is why people called it ‘Pentacom’ during Mattis’s time. He ran it like a [combatant command] and it created a lot of churn.”
Mattis, who civilians said cut career officials out of major conversations while working closely with then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, also brought in a team that was familiar to him at Centcom, including his chief of staff, Kevin Sweeney. And like Austin, Mattis’s formative years were spent in the Middle East—a theater the United States is trying to exit—but not as much in the Pacific, where the rise of China now presents the major strategic challenge.
“Not only were they only loyal to Mattis but they only had experiences in the Middle East,” the former official said. “So when we started sending up memos [that said] we need to do a [Freedom of Navigation Operation], it took him six months to get comfortable with making the decision.”
The pick could be uncomfortable for many of Biden’s team and Senate Democrats. In 2017, Kathleen Hicks, a former principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy during the Obama administration who now heads up Biden’s Pentagon transition effort, testified in favor of granting Mattis a waiver to serve as defense secretary, but she expressed hope that the exemption would be a rare generational case, not a new norm. Though some Democrats, such as Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Jack Reed, have backed off of previous threats not to support another waiver, another Democratic member of the panel, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, told reporters this week he would not vote for a waiver to allow Austin to serve as defense secretary. Former officials said the selection could further future political considerations for senior military selections, undermining the apolitical nature of the military.
Still, despite internal skepticism about the waiver, former officials expect Biden’s team to eventually fall in line with the planned nomination.
“No one is going to sit around and get in a pissing contest,” said Jim Townsend, who served as a deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO from 2009 to 2017. “We’re all here to help the secretary of defense.”
While Biden has championed Austin’s logistical aptitude in aiding the 2011 pullout from Iraq, the retired four-star would bring relatively little expertise on China, seen by the Pentagon as the top U.S. national security threat. Biden’s recent article defending Austin in the Atlantic made no mention of Beijing, sparking criticism from architects of the Trump administration’s National Defense Strategy, which shifted the focus of U.S. efforts to great-power contests like that with China.
Austin has also faced criticism for his management of the fight to defeat the Islamic State after U.S. forces redeployed in 2014. Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter recalled that Austin’s plan to retake the caliphate’s capital of Mosul was “entirely unrealistic” and relied on Iraqi units “that barely existed on paper, let alone in reality.” He was also the target of scrutiny from the late Sen. John McCain at a 2015 hearing when he admitted that a $500 million effort to train and equip Syrian opposition forces had yielded just four or five fighters.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-09--India’s Congress Party Needs to Ditch the Nehru-Gandhi Family

India ’ s Congress Party Needs to Ditch the Nehru-Gandhi Family India is a country of dynasties , and the most famous is the Nehru-Gandhi family .
The first family member to serve as president of the Indian National Congress was Motilal Nehru , father of Jawaharlal Nehru , who led the group from 1919-20 and again from 1928-29 .
After the second term , he was succeeded by his son Jawaharlal , who served the first of many terms at the top job— as president of the Congress in 1929-30 , 1936-37 , 1946 , and 1951-54—as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 1947-64 .
By the time his daughter , Indira Gandhi , who acquired her convenient ( but unrelated to Mohandas Gandhi ) name by marriage , became president of the Congress in 1978 , it was already a well-established family business .
However , she turned it up a notch .
In Nehru ’ s time , there were still heads of the party who weren ’ t from the family , but since 1978 ( except for a short gap between 1991-98 ) the Indian National Congress has been led by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since 1998 , Sonia Gandhi , the widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi , has led the party , save for the years between 2017-19 when her son , Rahul Gandhi , was in charge .
In the earlier days of the Indian Republic , the family name evoked feelings of respect and admiration across the country .
My father , who was born in India in the 1960s and grew up in Delhi , recalled that even there , people wanted to vote not for Indira Gandhi , Congress politician @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s daughter , even though she was running in Rae Bareli in the state of Uttar Pradesh—almost 400 miles away .
Today , the Nehru/Gandhi name has lost the shimmer it once had .
It no longer stands for an Allahabad prison sentence , a willingness to give up a family home for the betterment of the nation , or the independence of a new nation .
Now , it stands for nepotism , scandals , and faux secularism .
Voters have gone from looking for Nehru ’ s daughter to looking away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no sign the party is trying to even change in the face of this .
During the Emergency , when Indira Gandhi took near-absolute power for 21 months , the Congress shifted from an all-India party to an all-Indira party .
Congress luminaries like Jayaprakash Narayan , Morarji Desai , and Jivatram Kripalani were either removed from the party or left it , and some were jailed .
In their place , a cabal of family members , sycophants , and yes men rose to power , each pursuing their own ends .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ son , pursued projects like large-scale sterilization of poor Indians and the demolition of sites like impoverished areas around the Jama Masjid mosque in Delhi .
Eventually , Indira Gandhi decided to hold elections in 1977 , and she and her version of the Congress lost in a historic blowout leading to the formation of the first non-Congress government .
The Indira Congress wasn ’ t down for the count , however ; they eventually came back to power in 1980 .
The biggest continuity between the Congress of 1977 and the Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one-woman institutions with everyone else playing a supporting role .
However , this was not to last—in 1984 , Indira Gandhi was murdered by two of her bodyguards over her support of Operation Blue Star , the assault on the Golden Temple in Amritsar ( one of the holiest sites in Sikhism ) .
Her assassination kept her reputation alive .
Had she continued on as a politician , she would have to further answer for the Emergency ( the 18 month suspension of democracy within India ) and the authoritarianism unleashed by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a Sikh holy site , and more .
However , as a martyr to India , she didn ’ t really have to and in making her one , the Congress Party also made some of her changes permanent .
Yet this was in some ways , the best chance for a non-Gandhi to lead the party .
The outpouring of sympathy across India meant that the Congress Party was already likely to do well and thus , could take a risk .
Many were considered for the role , among them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they weren ’ t selected .
Indira Gandhi ’ s other son—Rajiv Gandhi , best known as a pilot , was instead made the face of the party .
Rajiv was a young man , still India ’ s youngest prime minister .
He was also seen as a face of reform as well as continuity—he was , after all , a Gandhi .
Rajiv Gandhi led the party to the biggest victory in the history of the Lok Sabha—more than 400 seats out of the body ’ s 542 .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best for all the scandals—especially the Bofors Scandal and the Shah Bano case .
In Bofors , he was accused of profiting from military contract deals between the Bofors arm manufacturer and the Indian Army .
Shah Bano was a far different affair—a complex scandal over religious divorce vs secular law .
Gandhi and his advisors were worried about a political backlash and loss of votes from Muslims , because the judgement may have been seen to set up Muslim religious beliefs regarding divorce on a collision course with secular law .
Unfortunately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; though not solely because of Bano or Bofors , his party lost the 1989 elections .
The next set of elections happened in 1991 and Rajiv had no chance to finish them—he was assassinated by a Tamil suicide bomber while campaigning , and succeeded by Pamulaparthi Venkata ( P. V. ) Narasimha Rao as Congress leader and prime minister .
For the first time , there was no member of the clan waiting in the wings .
But by 1998 , poor performance and internal party discontent gave another Gandhi a shot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ widow , was made party president—the first Gandhi in the role since her husband around 10 years earlier .
She was different from many Congress presidents—she was an Italian-born Catholic who had met Rajiv while he was at the University of Cambridge .
However , by the 1990s she was no outsider to Indian politics—her mother-in-law Indira Gandhi had taken a liking to her , and brought the young woman under her wing when she first moved to India .
By the time Rajiv was assassinated , she was a well-known figure .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ prime ministers , she was seen as capable of leading the party to brighter days .
With the assistance of Pranab Mukherjee , she was made president and since then , only one other person has shared the title with her—her son Rahul Gandhi , who held it for two years from 2017-19 .
In comparison , since 1998 , the BJP , the chief rival of the Congress , has had 10 individuals as party president—none of whom were related The Congress Party has become more a party of dynasts than a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost .
After winning the 2004 and 2009 elections in a coalition with several parties , the Congress-led coalition lost the 2014 election in a blowout , and their 2019 performance was highly dispiriting to supporters .
It is clear it is time for change—the question remains whether the party will act on it .
When Rahul Gandhi resigned from the presidency , he was clear that the next president should be a non-Gandhi .
The Congress Working Committee responded to this by making his mother the acting president .
Sonia Gandhi has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than Jawaharlal Nehru .
When members of the Congress , including Rajya Sabha Leader Ghulum Azad and former Union Ministers Shashi Tharoor , Kapil Sibal , and more sent a letter to the Congress president seeking elections for the Congress Working Committee , their request was ignored and at least one of them lost their positions for speaking out .
In all likelihood , Sonia Gandhi will lead the party for as long as she wants to and after that , it will probably be led by one of her children .
Rahul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is probably out for good , but Priyanka Gandhi , her daughter , is still a possibility and as she is in charge of the Congress ’ 2022 Uttar Pradesh Election strategy , maybe she ’ ll be able to demonstrate political knowhow and aptitude .
However , this is unlikely—when she led the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign in UP , the only winner in the 80 seats contested was her mother in Rae Bareli .
Congress will probably continue to lose younger leaders either to the BJP as they did Jyotiraditya Scindia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Sachin Pilot .
Increasingly , the party which once had most of the younger leaders of India—from Nehru to Patel to Gandhi to Maulana Azad—will find itself without them as they ask why they should hitch their star to a party that doesn ’ t care for them or their future .
Nehru ’ s work swings in the balance here .
It is true that the BJP has taken increasingly authoritarian actions , and it is also true that they ’ ve changed the face of the country .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters and that is the nut that must be cracked—how did all these people come to vote this way ?
This isn ’ t only an academic question—this is what the party must resolve because the voters in Phulpur , Uttar Pradesh that sent Nehru to the Lok Sabha in 1951 , 1957 , and 1962 sent a BJP candidate , Keshari Devi Patel , to the Lok Sabha in 2019 and this has happened across the country .
One answer to this question can be found in Modi ’ s 2014 campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Modi projected himself as a far less corrupt politician—one from an ordinary family , without children of his own .
It was a stark contrast with the UPA ’ s scandals .
Congress doesn ’ t need a childless leader , but it doesn ’ t need to be tied to the mast of the Nehru-Gandhi clan either .
A non-Gandhi might be able to mount a serious challenge to Modi .
As former Congress spokesman Sanjay Jha has written , the history of India and the Indian National Congress are closely tied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a democracy , the party must do so as well , and they must act before it ’ s too late to make a difference .

India is a country of dynasties, and the most famous is the Nehru-Gandhi family. The first family member to serve as president of the Indian National Congress was Motilal Nehru, father of Jawaharlal Nehru, who led the group from 1919-20 and again from 1928-29. After the second term, he was succeeded by his son Jawaharlal, who served the first of many terms at the top job— as president of the Congress in 1929-30, 1936-37, 1946, and 1951-54—as well as being India’s first prime minister from 1947-64.
India is a country of dynasties, and the most famous is the Nehru-Gandhi family. The first family member to serve as president of the Indian National Congress was Motilal Nehru, father of Jawaharlal Nehru, who led the group from 1919-20 and again from 1928-29. After the second term, he was succeeded by his son Jawaharlal, who served the first of many terms at the top job— as president of the Congress in 1929-30, 1936-37, 1946, and 1951-54—as well as being India’s first prime minister from 1947-64.
By the time his daughter, Indira Gandhi, who acquired her convenient (but unrelated to Mohandas Gandhi) name by marriage, became president of the Congress in 1978, it was already a well-established family business. However, she turned it up a notch. In Nehru’s time, there were still heads of the party who weren’t from the family, but since 1978 (except for a short gap between 1991-98) the Indian National Congress has been led by a member of the Nehru Gandhi family. Since 1998, Sonia Gandhi, the widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, has led the party, save for the years between 2017-19 when her son, Rahul Gandhi, was in charge.
In the earlier days of the Indian Republic, the family name evoked feelings of respect and admiration across the country. My father, who was born in India in the 1960s and grew up in Delhi, recalled that even there, people wanted to vote not for Indira Gandhi, Congress politician but for Indira Gandhi, Nehru’s daughter, even though she was running in Rae Bareli in the state of Uttar Pradesh—almost 400 miles away.
Today, the Nehru/Gandhi name has lost the shimmer it once had. It no longer stands for an Allahabad prison sentence, a willingness to give up a family home for the betterment of the nation, or the independence of a new nation. Now, it stands for nepotism, scandals, and faux secularism. Voters have gone from looking for Nehru’s daughter to looking away from his bloodline and there’s no sign the party is trying to even change in the face of this.
During the Emergency, when Indira Gandhi took near-absolute power for 21 months, the Congress shifted from an all-India party to an all-Indira party. Congress luminaries like Jayaprakash Narayan, Morarji Desai, and Jivatram Kripalani were either removed from the party or left it, and some were jailed. In their place, a cabal of family members, sycophants, and yes men rose to power, each pursuing their own ends. Sanjay Gandhi, Indira’s first son, pursued projects like large-scale sterilization of poor Indians and the demolition of sites like impoverished areas around the Jama Masjid mosque in Delhi.
Eventually, Indira Gandhi decided to hold elections in 1977, and she and her version of the Congress lost in a historic blowout leading to the formation of the first non-Congress government. The Indira Congress wasn’t down for the count, however; they eventually came back to power in 1980. The biggest continuity between the Congress of 1977 and the Congress of 1980 was that they were both one-woman institutions with everyone else playing a supporting role. However, this was not to last—in 1984, Indira Gandhi was murdered by two of her bodyguards over her support of Operation Blue Star, the assault on the Golden Temple in Amritsar (one of the holiest sites in Sikhism). Her assassination kept her reputation alive. Had she continued on as a politician, she would have to further answer for the Emergency (the 18 month suspension of democracy within India) and the authoritarianism unleashed by her and her family, her assault on a Sikh holy site, and more. However, as a martyr to India, she didn’t really have to and in making her one, the Congress Party also made some of her changes permanent.
Yet this was in some ways, the best chance for a non-Gandhi to lead the party. The outpouring of sympathy across India meant that the Congress Party was already likely to do well and thus, could take a risk. Many were considered for the role, among them future President Pranab Mukherjee, but ultimately, they weren’t selected. Indira Gandhi’s other son—Rajiv Gandhi, best known as a pilot, was instead made the face of the party. Rajiv was a young man, still India’s youngest prime minister. He was also seen as a face of reform as well as continuity—he was, after all, a Gandhi. Rajiv Gandhi led the party to the biggest victory in the history of the Lok Sabha—more than 400 seats out of the body’s 542.
But his time in office is perhaps remembered best for all the scandals—especially the Bofors Scandal and the Shah Bano case. In Bofors, he was accused of profiting from military contract deals between the Bofors arm manufacturer and the Indian Army. Shah Bano was a far different affair—a complex scandal over religious divorce vs secular law. Gandhi and his advisors were worried about a political backlash and loss of votes from Muslims, because the judgement may have been seen to set up Muslim religious beliefs regarding divorce on a collision course with secular law. Unfortunately for Gandhi, the backlash came anyway; though not solely because of Bano or Bofors, his party lost the 1989 elections.
The next set of elections happened in 1991 and Rajiv had no chance to finish them—he was assassinated by a Tamil suicide bomber while campaigning, and succeeded by Pamulaparthi Venkata (P. V.) Narasimha Rao as Congress leader and prime minister. For the first time, there was no member of the clan waiting in the wings.
But by 1998, poor performance and internal party discontent gave another Gandhi a shot. Sonia Gandhi, Rajiv’s widow, was made party president—the first Gandhi in the role since her husband around 10 years earlier. She was different from many Congress presidents—she was an Italian-born Catholic who had met Rajiv while he was at the University of Cambridge. However, by the 1990s she was no outsider to Indian politics—her mother-in-law Indira Gandhi had taken a liking to her, and brought the young woman under her wing when she first moved to India. By the time Rajiv was assassinated, she was a well-known figure. With her ties to both previous Congress prime ministers, she was seen as capable of leading the party to brighter days. With the assistance of Pranab Mukherjee, she was made president and since then, only one other person has shared the title with her—her son Rahul Gandhi, who held it for two years from 2017-19. In comparison, since 1998, the BJP, the chief rival of the Congress, has had 10 individuals as party president—none of whom were related
The Congress Party has become more a party of dynasts than a serious political enterprise, to its own cost. After winning the 2004 and 2009 elections in a coalition with several parties, the Congress-led coalition lost the 2014 election in a blowout, and their 2019 performance was highly dispiriting to supporters. It is clear it is time for change—the question remains whether the party will act on it.
When Rahul Gandhi resigned from the presidency, he was clear that the next president should be a non-Gandhi. The Congress Working Committee responded to this by making his mother the acting president. Sonia Gandhi has now spent more time atop the INC than Jawaharlal Nehru. When members of the Congress, including Rajya Sabha Leader Ghulum Azad and former Union Ministers Shashi Tharoor, Kapil Sibal, and more sent a letter to the Congress president seeking elections for the Congress Working Committee, their request was ignored and at least one of them lost their positions for speaking out.
In all likelihood, Sonia Gandhi will lead the party for as long as she wants to and after that, it will probably be led by one of her children. Rahul, after his back-to-back national drubbings, is probably out for good, but Priyanka Gandhi, her daughter, is still a possibility and as she is in charge of the Congress’ 2022 Uttar Pradesh Election strategy, maybe she’ll be able to demonstrate political knowhow and aptitude. However, this is unlikely—when she led the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign in UP, the only winner in the 80 seats contested was her mother in Rae Bareli.
Congress will probably continue to lose younger leaders either to the BJP as they did Jyotiraditya Scindia or lose them to the backbenches, like Sachin Pilot. Increasingly, the party which once had most of the younger leaders of India—from Nehru to Patel to Gandhi to Maulana Azad—will find itself without them as they ask why they should hitch their star to a party that doesn’t care for them or their future.
Nehru’s work swings in the balance here. It is true that the BJP has taken increasingly authoritarian actions, and it is also true that they’ve changed the face of the country. However, this happened with the support of the voters and that is the nut that must be cracked—how did all these people come to vote this way? This isn’t only an academic question—this is what the party must resolve because the voters in Phulpur, Uttar Pradesh that sent Nehru to the Lok Sabha in 1951, 1957, and 1962 sent a BJP candidate, Keshari Devi Patel, to the Lok Sabha in 2019 , and this has happened across the country.
One answer to this question can be found in Modi’s 2014 campaign, which was mainly about corruption. Modi projected himself as a far less corrupt politician—one from an ordinary family, without children of his own. It was a stark contrast with the UPA’s scandals. Congress doesn’t need a childless leader, but it doesn’t need to be tied to the mast of the Nehru-Gandhi clan either. A non-Gandhi might be able to mount a serious challenge to Modi. As former Congress spokesman Sanjay Jha has written, the history of India and the Indian National Congress are closely tied. If the country is to stay a democracy, the party must do so as well, and they must act before it’s too late to make a difference.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-09--U.S. Partisanship Is Harming Counterintelligence

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s China Brief .
The highlights this week : A recent case shows how U.S. partisanship undermines counterintelligence , why former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg should avoid becoming the next U.S. ambassador to China , and the United States issues sanctions against a former gangster-turned-businessman with ties to the Chinese Communist Party .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
Axios reported on Monday that a suspected Chinese spy , Christine Fang , managed to become close with Rep. Eric Swalwell , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ro Khanna , then a congressional candidate , while working her way into municipal politics in the United States .
Fang ’ s methods appear to have included sexual contact , as FBI surveillance caught her in a sexual encounter with one unnamed mayor , while another older mayor introduced her as his girlfriend .
This case illustrates the time and effort that Chinese intelligence services are willing to put into cultivating low-level politicians , expecting that they might eventually rise to higher positions .
But it also raises tricky questions about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dealing with Chinese nationals—where to draw the line between security and paranoia .
China isn ’ t the Soviet Union : There are numerous Chinese citizens , former citizens , and people with strong family ties to China who play a meaningful role in U.S. political and economic life whose rights should be protected .
In this case , Swalwell appears to have behaved entirely properly .
As a municipal representative , he had no reason to believe that China might target him , nor any access to secrets .
When warned by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all contact with Fang .
But the case has quickly become politicized by right-wing commentators who want to discredit Swalwell , who played a key role in Trump ’ s impeachment .
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has already called for Swalwell ’ s disqualification from the Intelligence Committee .
This is dangerous territory .
U.S. counterintelligence efforts against both Russia and China can ’ t function if Republicans see investigations into Russian influence as an attack and attempt to weaponize China investigations against Democrats in turn .
The bulk of responsibility falls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s corruption and complicity , but Democrats blaming any investigation on the Republicans—as Swalwell did in a Politico interview on Tuesday—don ’ t help .
Don ’ t take China , Pete .
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is reportedly considering former presidential contender Pete Buttigieg for ambassador to China .
Right now , that ’ s a poisoned chalice for a number of reasons—never mind that Buttigieg has fluency in several languages , none of them Chinese .
First , as former Mexican Ambassador to China Jorge Guajardo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large as the United States and China is done through capitals , not embassies—making the ambassadorship an unlikely role to build a bigger profile .
China also doesn ’ t recognize same-sex marriage , even for foreign diplomatic staff , meaning that Buttigieg ’ s husband , Chasten Buttigieg , would need a limited Member of Household tourist visa .
And with Republicans keen to link Democrats to China to compensate for Trump ’ s alleged dealings with Russia , the position would come with political dangers—especially with Beijing equally keen to force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Given the state of U.S.-China affairs , the role should go to some skilled and uninteresting bureaucrat , not a politician .
Supersoldier fears .
An overzealous story about China ’ s alleged research on biologically enhanced soldiers caused an NBC correspondent to proclaim , “ Imagine a sniper who can see twice as far as a human being.
” The story seems to be based off little more than an unsourced claim by U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe—and U.S. intelligence has a bad habit of perceiving Chinese aspirations as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such fears of alleged genetic engineering in China , especially given the national interest in the gene-editing tool CRISPR and cases such as the rogue scientist He Jiankui .
Chinese interest in eugenics is real , but the results are likely to be slow , dubious , and of little military utility compared to conventional technology .
The capacity for Chinese soldiers to see far beyond normal human vision already exists : It ’ s called a scope .
No stamps for you .
Sometimes the affairs of state between great nations are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Amid the diplomatic crisis caused by the border killings earlier this year , China has canceled a set of stamps to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with India .
The move is another signal that Beijing has no desire to mend the many fences it ’ s trampled this year—and that the days of Hindi Chini bhai-bhai are long gone .
BRI goes gangster .
The U.S. Treasury has issued Magnitsky sanctions against Wan Kuok-koi , also known as Broken Tooth , a notorious Triad leader originally based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crime charges , who now runs a Southeast Asian business network accused of being a front for criminal activity .
What is interesting about the U.S. sanctions is that they single out Wan ’ s role in the Belt and Road Initiative and his alleged position in the Macau branch of an advisory government body used as a reward for those Beijing favors .
Organized crime in Hong Kong and Macau has always easily crossed over to the broader business world .
Since the 1980s , it has worked closely with the Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprising to see it being used to further party goals in other countries .
Trade record .
Trump ’ s trade war with China has finally produced… a record high for the Chinese trade surplus , which hit $ 75.43 billion last month .
China has failed to meet most of the goals set during the part one of the trade deal at the start of 2020 , while tourism and education—which normally help the U.S. side of the balance sheet—have been shut down by the pandemic .
Meanwhile , as Americans hunker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re buying electronics and other Chinese goods in record numbers .
Laboratory for repression .
Outside understanding of the technology used in China ’ s campaign of massive repression in Xinjiang continues to grow .
New research by Human Rights Watch shows big data is used to target minorities in Xinjiang .
Chinese companies including Huawei , meanwhile , are openly boasting that their technology can identify Uighur faces and issue immediate alerts—within China , that is a selling point .
This charming video game , recently translated into English , draws clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ management simulator RimWorld , but it uses a fantasy Chinese setting .
In Amazing Cultivation Simulator , you lead surviving members of a Daoist sect attacked by its rivals to form a new colony and develop martial arts skills and mystical powers to fight rival sects and mystical monsters .
It ’ s both a fun game and an excellent introduction to the genre of xianxia , or immortal heroes—stories featuring protagonists who have mystical powers thanks to their cultivation of qi .
Like Western fantasy , it has premodern inspirations but has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.
The highlights this week: A recent case shows how U.S. partisanship undermines counterintelligence, why former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg should avoid becoming the next U.S. ambassador to China, and the United States issues sanctions against a former gangster-turned-businessman with ties to the Chinese Communist Party.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
Counterintelligence Can’t Survive U.S. Partisanship
Axios reported on Monday that a suspected Chinese spy, Christine Fang, managed to become close with Rep. Eric Swalwell, then a city councilman, and Rep. Ro Khanna, then a congressional candidate, while working her way into municipal politics in the United States. Fang’s methods appear to have included sexual contact, as FBI surveillance caught her in a sexual encounter with one unnamed mayor, while another older mayor introduced her as his girlfriend.
This case illustrates the time and effort that Chinese intelligence services are willing to put into cultivating low-level politicians, expecting that they might eventually rise to higher positions.
But it also raises tricky questions about the level of caution necessary for politicians when dealing with Chinese nationals—where to draw the line between security and paranoia. China isn’t the Soviet Union: There are numerous Chinese citizens, former citizens, and people with strong family ties to China who play a meaningful role in U.S. political and economic life whose rights should be protected.
In this case, Swalwell appears to have behaved entirely properly. As a municipal representative, he had no reason to believe that China might target him, nor any access to secrets. When warned by the FBI, he promptly broke off all contact with Fang. But the case has quickly become politicized by right-wing commentators who want to discredit Swalwell, who played a key role in Trump’s impeachment. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has already called for Swalwell’s disqualification from the Intelligence Committee.
This is dangerous territory. U.S. counterintelligence efforts against both Russia and China can’t function if Republicans see investigations into Russian influence as an attack and attempt to weaponize China investigations against Democrats in turn. The bulk of responsibility falls on a Republican Party desperate to defend U.S. President Donald Trump’s corruption and complicity, but Democrats blaming any investigation on the Republicans—as Swalwell did in a Politico interview on Tuesday—don’t help.
What We’re Following
Don’t take China, Pete. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is reportedly considering former presidential contender Pete Buttigieg for ambassador to China. Right now, that’s a poisoned chalice for a number of reasons—never mind that Buttigieg has fluency in several languages, none of them Chinese. First, as former Mexican Ambassador to China Jorge Guajardo pointed out, business between countries as large as the United States and China is done through capitals, not embassies—making the ambassadorship an unlikely role to build a bigger profile.
China also doesn’t recognize same-sex marriage, even for foreign diplomatic staff, meaning that Buttigieg’s husband, Chasten Buttigieg, would need a limited Member of Household tourist visa. And with Republicans keen to link Democrats to China to compensate for Trump’s alleged dealings with Russia, the position would come with political dangers—especially with Beijing equally keen to force gestures of political humiliation on U.S. politicians. Given the state of U.S.-China affairs, the role should go to some skilled and uninteresting bureaucrat, not a politician.
Supersoldier fears. An overzealous story about China’s alleged research on biologically enhanced soldiers caused an NBC correspondent to proclaim, “Imagine a sniper who can see twice as far as a human being.” The story seems to be based off little more than an unsourced claim by U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe—and U.S. intelligence has a bad habit of perceiving Chinese aspirations as existing programs.
Expect to increasingly see such fears of alleged genetic engineering in China, especially given the national interest in the gene-editing tool CRISPR and cases such as the rogue scientist He Jiankui. Chinese interest in eugenics is real, but the results are likely to be slow, dubious, and of little military utility compared to conventional technology. The capacity for Chinese soldiers to see far beyond normal human vision already exists: It’s called a scope.
No stamps for you. Sometimes the affairs of state between great nations are weighty—but sometimes they are extremely petty. Amid the diplomatic crisis caused by the border killings earlier this year, China has canceled a set of stamps to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with India. The move is another signal that Beijing has no desire to mend the many fences it’s trampled this year—and that the days of Hindi Chini bhai-bhai are long gone.
Tech and Business
BRI goes gangster. The U.S. Treasury has issued Magnitsky sanctions against Wan Kuok-koi, also known as Broken Tooth, a notorious Triad leader originally based in Macau and later imprisoned on organized crime charges, who now runs a Southeast Asian business network accused of being a front for criminal activity. What is interesting about the U.S. sanctions is that they single out Wan’s role in the Belt and Road Initiative and his alleged position in the Macau branch of an advisory government body used as a reward for those Beijing favors.
Organized crime in Hong Kong and Macau has always easily crossed over to the broader business world. Since the 1980s, it has worked closely with the Chinese Communist Party. It’s not surprising to see it being used to further party goals in other countries.
Trade record. Trump’s trade war with China has finally produced… a record high for the Chinese trade surplus, which hit $75.43 billion last month. China has failed to meet most of the goals set during the part one of the trade deal at the start of 2020, while tourism and education—which normally help the U.S. side of the balance sheet—have been shut down by the pandemic. Meanwhile, as Americans hunker down for the winter, they’re buying electronics and other Chinese goods in record numbers.
Laboratory for repression. Outside understanding of the technology used in China’s campaign of massive repression in Xinjiang continues to grow. New research by Human Rights Watch shows big data is used to target minorities in Xinjiang. Chinese companies including Huawei, meanwhile, are openly boasting that their technology can identify Uighur faces and issue immediate alerts—within China, that is a selling point.
What We’re Playing
Amazing Cultivation Simulator, by GSQ Games
This charming video game, recently translated into English, draws clear inspiration from the Western science fiction colony management simulator RimWorld, but it uses a fantasy Chinese setting. In Amazing Cultivation Simulator, you lead surviving members of a Daoist sect attacked by its rivals to form a new colony and develop martial arts skills and mystical powers to fight rival sects and mystical monsters.
It’s both a fun game and an excellent introduction to the genre of xianxia, or immortal heroes—stories featuring protagonists who have mystical powers thanks to their cultivation of qi. Like Western fantasy, it has premodern inspirations but has developed its own distinct tropes.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-09--Italy’s Economy Is Under Pressure as Pandemic Continues

Italy ’ s Economy Is Under Pressure as Pandemic Continues Alongside the rest of Europe , Italy is in the grip of a renewed wave of the coronavirus and has responded by progressively tightening lockdown measures across the country .
But first-wave slogans promoting resilience have given way to a sense of fatigue , which spilled over into anger in late October as the government announced new closures .
The protests—led by owners of small businesses and restaurants , as well as self-employed professionals and seasonal workers in the catering and tourism sectors—have not yet surged into a mass movement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new economic rescue packages for those affected within these labor categories .
The participation of violent fringes and the far-right , as well as the media ’ s focus on them , also contributed to the fragmentation of the protests .
Still , discontent remains palpable .
Market traders took to the streets in Naples upon the announcement of a strict lockdown in mid-November .
Restaurant owners from Tuscany gathered in Rome after a 10-day march .
Earlier , arts and entertainment workers took to the streets with empty equipment trunks , symbolizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government , it is a challenging balancing act between protecting citizens ’ health and the country ’ s economy .
Italy ’ s economy relies on a significant level of informal work and many smaller businesses , both categories that have fallen through the cracks of efforts to stave off individual economic costs of the pandemic .
Several regions hit hard by the virus were already grappling with high levels of unemployment pre-pandemic .
The Italian government has made one of the largest fiscal efforts in proportion to GDP among OECD countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reach some of those most in need .
Many families have been left without necessities or with insufficient safety nets .
Unemployment benefits announced in March were burdened by severe bureaucratic delays , and were often insufficient to cover living costs for a protracted period of time .
The Italian short-time work scheme is among the least generous in developed countries .
According to the economist Andrea Garnero , this reflects the fact that the Italian welfare system has never been good at targeting the most vulnerable .
Because the job retention @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers without regular working hours or partially declared hours , income was simply slashed .
The summer saw relatively low rates of contagion compared to other European countries , and the virus made its autumn comeback in Italy later than elsewhere .
But as of December , the government had declared nine out of 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces at high or moderately high risk , using a system that classifies them according to the infection rate and the capacity of the local health infrastructure .
Lombardy , worst-hit in the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of recorded cases and deaths .
Politicians have been feeding a sense of division .
Local governors have picked arguments with the government about what color their region should be labeled—red , orange , or yellow , with lockdown rules proportionate to the level of risk .
In Naples , local news outlets were reporting lines outside hospitals while the national government was insisting the data it received suggested it should remain in the lower-risk category .
Elsewhere , disagreements had less to do with data and more to do with appeasing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of businesses and workers .
“ We have been facing additional costs , and we are not able to work to full capacity .
We made sacrifices , thinking that the government would meet us halfway , ” said Giuseppe Esposito , 62 , the owner of a hair salon in Naples , which is allowed to stay open even under severe movement restrictions .
The city and its region of Campania are now classed as medium-high risk .
Esposito took part in the protests in late October and founded an association of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as he puts it , “ no longer want to be represented by the old trade unions , ” traditionally leaning to the political left and center .
He said turnover of about $ 50,000 a year for his salon has decreased by 35 percent as a result of the crisis , while costs are high for small businesses across Italy .
“ It is hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel , ” Esposito said in November .
That uncertainty is amplified in areas of Italy with levels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high before the pandemic hit .
In the southern regions of Sicily and Campania , the number of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion from welfare and rights that other citizens or residents have access to in 2018 was over 50 percent compared to an Italian average of 27 percent , and just over 20 percent across the 27 European Union countries .
Salvatore Caruso , a 35-year-old graphic designer from Naples , said the uncertainty he faced before the pandemic has snowballed .
Caruso was working as a freelancer with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hit .
He had an external contractor agreement with a company that meant his contract could be terminated at any point with 15 days ’ notice .
That is exactly what happened last March .
He got through the summer thanks to outstanding payments he was owed and by taking on occasional commissions from the few clients who were still investing in their communications .
“ I have no access to welfare or any alternative form of income , ” said Caruso , who says he fell through the cracks of the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , among other reasons , his work had decreased rather than stopped altogether .
Caruso has now returned to work for the company that ended his contract in March , on the same conditions .
He doesn ’ t know how long that will last .
Caruso said his situation is “ the norm , rather than an exception.
” “ Many companies in the business center where I work will tell you to go and register as self-employed when they hire you , ” he added .
And that is comparatively good @ @ @ @ @ @ @ smaller companies , he said , will opt for cash-in-hand payments .
“ One specific difficulty Italy faces in this calibration exercise is that it has mostly small-sized firms and a significant non-officially recorded economy , ” Francesco Papadia , a senior fellow at the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel , told Foreign Policy .
“ And these are the two areas where it ’ s most difficult to help businesses in difficulty.
” According to the Italian National Institute of Statistics , Italy ’ s informal economy is worth an estimated 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the services sector—which is also the hardest-hit by the pandemic .
The transportation and hospitality sectors , mostly relying on small and medium-sized businesses , account for about 40 percent of the informal economy ’ s estimated value of 192 billion euros .
In the EU as a whole , informal work accounts for 11 percent of all private sector employment and tends to be more prevalent in Eastern European countries .
According to a recent report on poverty and social exclusion published by the Catholic nongovernmental organization Caritas , poverty is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the profile of the “ new poor ” is changing .
Between May and September 2020 , a period that saw a partial economic recovery , the number of people who used the organization ’ s services increased by almost 13 percent compared to 2019 , with the largest rise recorded among women , young people , and Italian families as existing inequality was exacerbated .
While women are already at a disadvantage in the labor market , young people tend to work in more precarious jobs or temporary contracts .
Italy was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s most unequal countries , ranking 24th in 2017 on the Gini index when measuring income inequality among EU countries , excluding the United Kingdom .
“ What is particularly concerning is the speed with which this profile is changing , ” Federica De Lauso , one of the Caritas report ’ s authors , told Foreign Policy .
“ This new wave comes into a context that was already precarious.
” In 2019 , 4.6 million people in Italy already lived in absolute poverty .
The pandemic , she added , revealed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country .
“ Our colleagues in the north too revealed just how common informal work is , made up of a myriad of small jobs in hospitality , tourism , caring , ” De Lauso said , “ and it ’ s worth remembering that a lot of the time , it is not by choice.
” Just a year before the pandemic , Italy launched a “ citizens ’ income ” scheme guaranteeing a basic income to all job seekers who have been resident in Italy for at least 10 years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” was meant to shield the most vulnerable in the pandemic .
Days after protests flared up in cities around the country , the Italian government announced a new 5.4 billion euro package ( around $ 6.5 billion ) to help the sectors hit hardest by the partial lockdown , such as entertainment venues , restaurants , and bars .
These funds are set to increase as a growing number of regions and cities are subject to movement restrictions and closures .
This adds to more than $ 100 billion Italy allocated to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the education sector so far to face the unprecedented crisis .
Italy ’ s central bank projects that the country ’ s sovereign debt , already the second highest in the European Union after Greece ’ s , will reach 158 percent of GDP as the crisis grinds on .
While Italy ’ s debt is ballooning , it is also costing less as interest rates are kept low .
As Papadia of the Bruegel think tank explains , there are three reasons for this .
“ One is that this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as possibly as low as they have [ ever ] been , ” Papadia said .
“ The second is specific to Europe and what the [ European Central Bank ] is doing in terms of purchases .
The third is that Italian government is not pursuing the policies of the previous government.
” Any change in those circumstances would be problematic for debt sustainability .
The suspension of strict EU budget rules allowed Italy and other badly affected countries such as Spain and France to raise their public debt .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budget and temporary recovery fund known as Next Generation EU , for a total of over $ 2 trillion—the largest spending package ever financed through the EU ’ s budget—is set for a bumpy road ahead .
Hungary and Poland , supported by Slovenia , vetoed the budget over a clause that links access to the funds to respect for the rule of law .
EU institutions have triggered procedures against both countries under Article 7 of the European Union treaty concerning its “ fundamental values , ” citing attacks on media freedom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In turn , Hungary and Poland have accused the EU of double standards .
Italy is due to get an estimated 209 billion euros , around $ 250 billion , in recovery fund cash and plans to avail itself of both the grants and cheap loans it offers .
The hope is that the fund will help Italy , the EU ’ s third-largest economy , out of the quagmire it has been in since the last economic crisis .
And while there has been some pushback , particularly from opposition parties like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attached to EU aid , this has largely focused on a smaller pool of money available through the European Stability Mechanism .
“ The decisive factor to make Italian debt sustainable is growth .
Italy used to be richer per head than the average EU country .
It is now poorer than the average , just because it has been stagnating for [ at least ] two decades.
” “ If [ the recovery fund ] is used for good investment , then you could expect there would be significant improvement over time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Papadia said .
“ The decisive factor to make Italian debt sustainable is growth .
Italy used to be richer per head than the average EU country .
It is now poorer than the average , just because it has been stagnating for [ at least ] two decades.
” Many see an opportunity for Italy to start over after the crisis , including foreign investors who are beginning to eye Italy ’ s infrastructure sector .
But getting to that point will be a tightrope walk for the country ’ s EU-friendly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but still tops consensus polls , while the smaller , far-right Brothers of Italy is the only party significantly on the rise .
With so much at stake for both Italy and the EU , leaving no one behind may be more urgent than ever .

Alongside the rest of Europe, Italy is in the grip of a renewed wave of the coronavirus and has responded by progressively tightening lockdown measures across the country. But first-wave slogans promoting resilience have given way to a sense of fatigue, which spilled over into anger in late October as the government announced new closures. The protests—led by owners of small businesses and restaurants, as well as self-employed professionals and seasonal workers in the catering and tourism sectors—have not yet surged into a mass movement, partly because the government quickly announced new economic rescue packages for those affected within these labor categories. The participation of violent fringes and the far-right, as well as the media’s focus on them, also contributed to the fragmentation of the protests.
Alongside the rest of Europe, Italy is in the grip of a renewed wave of the coronavirus and has responded by progressively tightening lockdown measures across the country. But first-wave slogans promoting resilience have given way to a sense of fatigue, which spilled over into anger in late October as the government announced new closures. The protests—led by owners of small businesses and restaurants, as well as self-employed professionals and seasonal workers in the catering and tourism sectors—have not yet surged into a mass movement, partly because the government quickly announced new economic rescue packages for those affected within these labor categories. The participation of violent fringes and the far-right, as well as the media’s focus on them, also contributed to the fragmentation of the protests.
Still, discontent remains palpable. Market traders took to the streets in Naples upon the announcement of a strict lockdown in mid-November. Restaurant owners from Tuscany gathered in Rome after a 10-day march. Earlier, arts and entertainment workers took to the streets with empty equipment trunks, symbolizing canceled events and precarious contracts. For the government, it is a challenging balancing act between protecting citizens’ health and the country’s economy. Italy’s economy relies on a significant level of informal work and many smaller businesses, both categories that have fallen through the cracks of efforts to stave off individual economic costs of the pandemic. Several regions hit hard by the virus were already grappling with high levels of unemployment pre-pandemic.
The Italian government has made one of the largest fiscal efforts in proportion to GDP among OECD countries. Despite that, support has failed to reach some of those most in need. Many families have been left without necessities or with insufficient safety nets. Unemployment benefits announced in March were burdened by severe bureaucratic delays, and were often insufficient to cover living costs for a protracted period of time. The Italian short-time work scheme is among the least generous in developed countries. According to the economist Andrea Garnero, this reflects the fact that the Italian welfare system has never been good at targeting the most vulnerable. Because the job retention scheme is linked to earnings, for workers without regular working hours or partially declared hours, income was simply slashed.
The summer saw relatively low rates of contagion compared to other European countries, and the virus made its autumn comeback in Italy later than elsewhere. But as of December, the government had declared nine out of 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces at high or moderately high risk, using a system that classifies them according to the infection rate and the capacity of the local health infrastructure. Lombardy, worst-hit in the first wave, still tops the list for number of recorded cases and deaths.
Politicians have been feeding a sense of division. Local governors have picked arguments with the government about what color their region should be labeled—red, orange, or yellow, with lockdown rules proportionate to the level of risk. In Naples, local news outlets were reporting lines outside hospitals while the national government was insisting the data it received suggested it should remain in the lower-risk category. Elsewhere, disagreements had less to do with data and more to do with appeasing the uncertainty still faced by large swaths of businesses and workers.
“We have been facing additional costs, and we are not able to work to full capacity. We made sacrifices, thinking that the government would meet us halfway,” said Giuseppe Esposito, 62, the owner of a hair salon in Naples, which is allowed to stay open even under severe movement restrictions. The city and its region of Campania are now classed as medium-high risk.
Esposito took part in the protests in late October and founded an association of small traders and self-employed workers who, as he puts it, “no longer want to be represented by the old trade unions,” traditionally leaning to the political left and center. He said turnover of about $50,000 a year for his salon has decreased by 35 percent as a result of the crisis, while costs are high for small businesses across Italy. “It is hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Esposito said in November.
That uncertainty is amplified in areas of Italy with levels of unemployment and insecurity that were already high before the pandemic hit. In the southern regions of Sicily and Campania, the number of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion from welfare and rights that other citizens or residents have access to in 2018 was over 50 percent compared to an Italian average of 27 percent, and just over 20 percent across the 27 European Union countries.
Salvatore Caruso, a 35-year-old graphic designer from Naples, said the uncertainty he faced before the pandemic has snowballed. Caruso was working as a freelancer with regular hours and pay when the pandemic hit. He had an external contractor agreement with a company that meant his contract could be terminated at any point with 15 days’ notice. That is exactly what happened last March. He got through the summer thanks to outstanding payments he was owed and by taking on occasional commissions from the few clients who were still investing in their communications.
“I have no access to welfare or any alternative form of income,” said Caruso, who says he fell through the cracks of the government rescue packages and existing welfare programs because, among other reasons, his work had decreased rather than stopped altogether. Caruso has now returned to work for the company that ended his contract in March, on the same conditions. He doesn’t know how long that will last. Caruso said his situation is “the norm, rather than an exception.”
“Many companies in the business center where I work will tell you to go and register as self-employed when they hire you,” he added. And that is comparatively good practice, as many employers and particularly smaller companies, he said, will opt for cash-in-hand payments.
“One specific difficulty Italy faces in this calibration exercise is that it has mostly small-sized firms and a significant non-officially recorded economy,” Francesco Papadia, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel, told Foreign Policy. “And these are the two areas where it’s most difficult to help businesses in difficulty.”
According to the Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy’s informal economy is worth an estimated 11 percent of GDP and is most prevalent in the services sector—which is also the hardest-hit by the pandemic. The transportation and hospitality sectors, mostly relying on small and medium-sized businesses, account for about 40 percent of the informal economy’s estimated value of 192 billion euros. In the EU as a whole, informal work accounts for 11 percent of all private sector employment and tends to be more prevalent in Eastern European countries.
According to a recent report on poverty and social exclusion published by the Catholic nongovernmental organization Caritas, poverty is on the rise in Italy, and the profile of the “new poor” is changing. Between May and September 2020, a period that saw a partial economic recovery, the number of people who used the organization’s services increased by almost 13 percent compared to 2019, with the largest rise recorded among women, young people, and Italian families as existing inequality was exacerbated. While women are already at a disadvantage in the labor market, young people tend to work in more precarious jobs or temporary contracts. Italy was already one of the European Union’s most unequal countries, ranking 24th in 2017 on the Gini index when measuring income inequality among EU countries, excluding the United Kingdom.
“What is particularly concerning is the speed with which this profile is changing,” Federica De Lauso, one of the Caritas report’s authors, told Foreign Policy. “This new wave comes into a context that was already precarious.” In 2019, 4.6 million people in Italy already lived in absolute poverty.
The pandemic, she added, revealed how widespread informal work is throughout the country. “Our colleagues in the north too revealed just how common informal work is, made up of a myriad of small jobs in hospitality, tourism, caring,” De Lauso said, “and it’s worth remembering that a lot of the time, it is not by choice.”
Just a year before the pandemic, Italy launched a “citizens’ income” scheme guaranteeing a basic income to all job seekers who have been resident in Italy for at least 10 years. This year, an “emergency income” was meant to shield the most vulnerable in the pandemic.
Days after protests flared up in cities around the country, the Italian government announced a new 5.4 billion euro package (around $6.5 billion) to help the sectors hit hardest by the partial lockdown, such as entertainment venues, restaurants, and bars. These funds are set to increase as a growing number of regions and cities are subject to movement restrictions and closures. This adds to more than $100 billion Italy allocated to the health system, workers, companies, and the education sector so far to face the unprecedented crisis. Italy’s central bank projects that the country’s sovereign debt, already the second highest in the European Union after Greece’s, will reach 158 percent of GDP as the crisis grinds on.
While Italy’s debt is ballooning, it is also costing less as interest rates are kept low. As Papadia of the Bruegel think tank explains, there are three reasons for this. “One is that this is a universal phenomenon, interest rates as possibly as low as they have [ever] been,” Papadia said. “The second is specific to Europe and what the [European Central Bank] is doing in terms of purchases. The third is that Italian government is not pursuing the policies of the previous government.” Any change in those circumstances would be problematic for debt sustainability.
The suspension of strict EU budget rules allowed Italy and other badly affected countries such as Spain and France to raise their public debt. But the approval of the EU’s 2021-2027 budget and temporary recovery fund known as Next Generation EU, for a total of over $2 trillion—the largest spending package ever financed through the EU’s budget—is set for a bumpy road ahead. Hungary and Poland, supported by Slovenia, vetoed the budget over a clause that links access to the funds to respect for the rule of law. EU institutions have triggered procedures against both countries under Article 7 of the European Union treaty concerning its “fundamental values,” citing attacks on media freedom, minorities, and judicial independence. In turn, Hungary and Poland have accused the EU of double standards.
Italy is due to get an estimated 209 billion euros, around $250 billion, in recovery fund cash and plans to avail itself of both the grants and cheap loans it offers. The hope is that the fund will help Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, out of the quagmire it has been in since the last economic crisis. And while there has been some pushback, particularly from opposition parties like the far-right League, about the strings attached to EU aid, this has largely focused on a smaller pool of money available through the European Stability Mechanism.
“The decisive factor to make Italian debt sustainable is growth. Italy used to be richer per head than the average EU country. It is now poorer than the average, just because it has been stagnating for [at least] two decades.”
“If [the recovery fund] is used for good investment, then you could expect there would be significant improvement over time in Italy’s growth,” Papadia said. “The decisive factor to make Italian debt sustainable is growth. Italy used to be richer per head than the average EU country. It is now poorer than the average, just because it has been stagnating for [at least] two decades.”
Many see an opportunity for Italy to start over after the crisis, including foreign investors who are beginning to eye Italy’s infrastructure sector. But getting to that point will be a tightrope walk for the country’s EU-friendly leadership. The League has lost ground but still tops consensus polls, while the smaller, far-right Brothers of Italy is the only party significantly on the rise. With so much at stake for both Italy and the EU, leaving no one behind may be more urgent than ever.