foreignpolicy--2020-02-03--Trump Administration Expected to Appoint First Ambassador to Belarus in Over a Decade

Trump Administration Expected to Appoint First Ambassador to Belarus in Over a Decade The Trump administration is likely to appoint a veteran diplomat as U.S. ambassador to Belarus—the first in more than a decade—amid its efforts to strengthen ties with a country long considered to be in Russia ’ s orbit .
Julie Fisher , an experienced career foreign service officer , is expected to be tapped as the new U.S. ambassador , according to people in Belarus familiar with the matter .
She will be the first ambassador to the county , sometimes referred to in the West as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” since 2008 .
While Belarus ’ s neighbors Russia and Ukraine have hogged the headlines in Washington , the Trump administration has quietly engaged in a bid to warm ties with Minsk .
On Saturday , Mike Pompeo became the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Belarus in over 25 years , stopping over during a tour of several countries in the region .
During a press conference with his Belarusian counterpart , Pompeo said that the United States was ready to provide the country with “ 100 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Russia and Belarus are locked in an ongoing dispute about oil transit prices that saw Moscow temporarily cut off supplies at the beginning of the year .
He also touted the importance of deploying a U.S. ambassador to Minsk .
“ I hope it happens quickly … I think it ’ s something that we could likely see in the not-too-distant future , ” he said .
Fisher , a career foreign service officer , currently serves as deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Europe and the European Union .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. mission to NATO and has been assigned to the U.S. embassies in Ukraine , Georgia , and Russia .
Fisher would require nomination by the president and confirmation by the Senate to become ambassador .
The United States and Belarus have forged closer ties in the past year through a flurry of high-level meetings and diplomatic overtures that led to Pompeo ’ s visit .
In August 2019 , then-National Security Advisor John Bolton traveled to Minsk , becoming the most senior U.S. official to visit the country in two decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ September , the third-ranking State Department official , Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale , visited Minsk and announced that the United States was preparing to exchange ambassadors with Belarus for the first time in nearly 12 years .
Kenneth Yalowitz , who served as U.S. ambassador to Belarus in the 1990s , said that an exchange of ambassadors would enable the two countries to improve their long-stalled relationship , but he cautioned that both sides would remain wary of each other .
“ I can tell you , after three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s good to have the dialogue , but it ’ s not going to radically change things , ” said Yalowitz , who is now a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars The last U.S. ambassador to Belarus was expelled in 2008 after the United States tightened sanctions over Minsk ’ s declining human rights record .
Thirty of the 35 diplomats posted to Belarus were also ejected , and a strict cap was placed on the number of U.S. diplomats allowed to serve in the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Belarusian officials informed the State Department that the cap would be lifted , marking a significant diplomatic breakthrough for the two countries .
Pompeo praised Belarus ’ s decision to allow more U.S. diplomats into the country during his press conference in Minsk .
“ We ’ ve improved our diplomatic capability here already .
We ’ ve almost doubled the number of diplomats we have here .
It ’ s already proven to be beneficial , I think , to the United States as well as , I think , to Belarus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The State Department declined to comment for this story , referring the request to the White House .
The White House did not respond to request for comment .
The anticipated announcement of a new U.S. ambassador to Belarus comes amid tense relations between some career diplomats and top Trump administration officials .
Marie Yovanovitch , a career diplomat who was the ambassador in Belarus ’ s southern neighbor , Ukraine , became a key witness in the congressional impeachment investigation into President Donald Trump .
Yovanovitch was ousted from her job following @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo faced fierce criticism from former diplomats and Democratic lawmakers , who argued Pompeo did not stand up for career diplomats in the face of politicized attacks .
While Belarus has long been a reliable client state of Russia , relations between the two countries have worsened in recent years , analysts say .
Efforts by the Kremlin to revive a 20-year-old union state treaty between the two countries sparked fears that unification could provide a way for Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay in power beyond his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a new unified entity .
The Belarusian economy has long been dependent on Russian energy subsidies , which Putin sought to leverage in a bid to draw Minsk closer into his orbit .
The two countries ’ leaders met twice this past December to discuss deepening ties but little progress has been made .
The negotiations sparked rare protest in Belarus over fears that it could undermine the country ’ s independence .
Over the years , Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko , who has ruled for over 25 years , has proved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to extract gains from Moscow .
But the Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea altered the calculus for Lukashenko , who has increasingly sought to keep Russia at arm ’ s length .
In 2015 , the United States eased sanctions on Belarus after authorities released the country ’ s remaining political prisoners , marking the beginning of a thaw in relations between Minsk and the West .
Sanctions remain in place against several high-ranking Belarusian officials .
At a press conference in Minsk , Pompeo floated the possibility of lifting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improved its respect for human rights , rule of law , and press freedom .
“ We ’ ve been unambiguous about the things that have to happen in order to see that kind of sanctions relief .
We ’ re not there yet , but we ’ re very hopeful that moments like we ’ re in right now , days like today , bring us closer to that , ” Pompeo said .
Update , Feb. 3 , 2020 : This article was updated to include comment from former Ambassador Kenneth @ @

The Trump administration is likely to appoint a veteran diplomat as U.S. ambassador to Belarus—the first in more than a decade—amid its efforts to strengthen ties with a country long considered to be in Russia’s orbit.
The Trump administration is likely to appoint a veteran diplomat as U.S. ambassador to Belarus—the first in more than a decade—amid its efforts to strengthen ties with a country long considered to be in Russia’s orbit.
Julie Fisher, an experienced career foreign service officer, is expected to be tapped as the new U.S. ambassador, according to people in Belarus familiar with the matter. She will be the first ambassador to the county, sometimes referred to in the West as “Europe’s last dictatorship,” since 2008.
While Belarus’s neighbors Russia and Ukraine have hogged the headlines in Washington, the Trump administration has quietly engaged in a bid to warm ties with Minsk. On Saturday, Mike Pompeo became the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Belarus in over 25 years, stopping over during a tour of several countries in the region. During a press conference with his Belarusian counterpart, Pompeo said that the United States was ready to provide the country with “100 percent of the oil you need at competitive prices” as Russia and Belarus are locked in an ongoing dispute about oil transit prices that saw Moscow temporarily cut off supplies at the beginning of the year.
He also touted the importance of deploying a U.S. ambassador to Minsk. “I hope it happens quickly … I think it’s something that we could likely see in the not-too-distant future,” he said.
Fisher, a career foreign service officer, currently serves as deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Europe and the European Union. She previously served as deputy permanent representative of the U.S. mission to NATO and has been assigned to the U.S. embassies in Ukraine, Georgia, and Russia. Fisher would require nomination by the president and confirmation by the Senate to become ambassador.
The United States and Belarus have forged closer ties in the past year through a flurry of high-level meetings and diplomatic overtures that led to Pompeo’s visit. In August 2019, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton traveled to Minsk, becoming the most senior U.S. official to visit the country in two decades before Pompeo’s trip. That September, the third-ranking State Department official, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale, visited Minsk and announced that the United States was preparing to exchange ambassadors with Belarus for the first time in nearly 12 years.
Kenneth Yalowitz, who served as U.S. ambassador to Belarus in the 1990s, said that an exchange of ambassadors would enable the two countries to improve their long-stalled relationship, but he cautioned that both sides would remain wary of each other. “I can tell you, after three years of talking with Mr. Lukashenko. It’s good to have the dialogue, but it’s not going to radically change things,” said Yalowitz, who is now a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
The last U.S. ambassador to Belarus was expelled in 2008 after the United States tightened sanctions over Minsk’s declining human rights record. Thirty of the 35 diplomats posted to Belarus were also ejected, and a strict cap was placed on the number of U.S. diplomats allowed to serve in the country.
In January of last year, Belarusian officials informed the State Department that the cap would be lifted, marking a significant diplomatic breakthrough for the two countries.
Pompeo praised Belarus’s decision to allow more U.S. diplomats into the country during his press conference in Minsk. “We’ve improved our diplomatic capability here already. We’ve almost doubled the number of diplomats we have here. It’s already proven to be beneficial, I think, to the United States as well as, I think, to Belarus as well,” he said.
The State Department declined to comment for this story, referring the request to the White House. The White House did not respond to request for comment.
The anticipated announcement of a new U.S. ambassador to Belarus comes amid tense relations between some career diplomats and top Trump administration officials. Marie Yovanovitch, a career diplomat who was the ambassador in Belarus’s southern neighbor, Ukraine, became a key witness in the congressional impeachment investigation into President Donald Trump. Yovanovitch was ousted from her job following a smear campaign by associates of Trump. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo faced fierce criticism from former diplomats and Democratic lawmakers, who argued Pompeo did not stand up for career diplomats in the face of politicized attacks.
While Belarus has long been a reliable client state of Russia, relations between the two countries have worsened in recent years, analysts say. Efforts by the Kremlin to revive a 20-year-old union state treaty between the two countries sparked fears that unification could provide a way for Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay in power beyond his term limit by taking up the helm of a new unified entity. The Belarusian economy has long been dependent on Russian energy subsidies, which Putin sought to leverage in a bid to draw Minsk closer into his orbit.
The two countries’ leaders met twice this past December to discuss deepening ties but little progress has been made. The negotiations sparked rare protest in Belarus over fears that it could undermine the country’s independence. Over the years, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled for over 25 years, has proved himself willing to flirt with the West to extract gains from Moscow. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea altered the calculus for Lukashenko, who has increasingly sought to keep Russia at arm’s length.
In 2015, the United States eased sanctions on Belarus after authorities released the country’s remaining political prisoners, marking the beginning of a thaw in relations between Minsk and the West. Sanctions remain in place against several high-ranking Belarusian officials. At a press conference in Minsk, Pompeo floated the possibility of lifting U.S. sanctions on Belarus if the country improved its respect for human rights, rule of law, and press freedom.
“We’ve been unambiguous about the things that have to happen in order to see that kind of sanctions relief. We’re not there yet, but we’re very hopeful that moments like we’re in right now, days like today, bring us closer to that,” Pompeo said.
Update, Feb. 3, 2020: This article was updated to include comment from former Ambassador Kenneth Yalowitz.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-03--Leader of al Qaeda in Yemen Believed Dead in U.S. Airstrike

Leader of al Qaeda in Yemen Believed Dead in U.S. Airstrike Welcome to Security Brief .
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Get in touch : securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
What ’ s on tap for today : Qasim al-Raymi , the leader of the al Qaeda branch in Yemen , is believed to have been killed in a CIA airstrike , Pompeo condemns the Chinese crackdown on Uighur Muslims during a visit to Kazakhstan , Turkey carries out an airstrike against Syrian forces , and more .
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S. officials believe the leader of the al Qaeda branch in Yemen was killed in a CIA airstrike , a former administration official tells Foreign Policy , confirming a New York Times report out Friday .
U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to confirm the reports on Friday with a series of retweets .
Significant blow .
If confirmed , the death of Qasim al-Raymi , the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula , who has a long history of terrorist activities dating back to the 1990s , would represent a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Sunday claimed responsibility for the last year ’ s deadly shooting at Naval Air Station Pensacola by a Saudi National .
Raymi was sentenced to five years in prison in 2005 for plotting to assassinate the U.S. ambassador to Yemen , but he escaped in 2006 .
He has been linked to numerous terrorist attacks , including the 2008 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa and the 2009 “ underwear bomber.
” He rose to become emir of al Qaeda ’ s Yemen affiliate in 2015 .
The State Department had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information on his whereabouts .
U.S. officials had been tracking Raymi since November 2019 , when they first learned of his location from an informer in Yemen , according to the Times .
Officials expressed confidence that he was killed in the January airstrike but were awaiting confirmation before making a public announcement .
Not the first attempt .
This is not the first time the United States has targeted Raymi .
In the first major military operation authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump , Navy SEAL Team 6 attempted to kill or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The operation failed , leaving Chief Petty Officer William Owens dead .
The Pentagon on Friday said officials were aware of reports alleging Raymi ’ s death but declined to provide further comment .
The National Security Council did not respond to an inquiry from Foreign Policy .
State of the Union .
Trump is slated to give his third annual State of the Union address on Tuesday before a deeply divided Congress that voted to impeach him—and also looks ready to acquit him on partisan lines the next day .
But rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impeachment , White House aides tell reporters they expect Trump to focus his speech on policy substance , including foreign-policy priorities such as the strength of the U.S. military and the recently clinched U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal .
Resumption of hostilities against the Islamic State .
Iraqi military officials said in a statement on Jan. 30 that joint military operations with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State have resumed .
The operations were put on pause nearly three weeks ago after the U.S. assassination of the Quds Force leader Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani @ @ @ @ @ @ @ al-Muhandis dramatically raised tensions with Iran , causing both the United States and Iraq to focus on the possible threat from Iran—and causing Iraq to seek to reduce the U.S. troop presence in the country .
Pompeo supports Uighurs amid China crackdown .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pressed Kazakhstan to condemn China over its crackdown on Uighur Muslims during a visit to the Central Asian country on Sunday .
China has forced between 1 million and 2 million people into so-called reeducation camps in western China in recent years—some of whom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counterterrorism campaign .
U.S. expands troop presence at Saudi base .
Since last summer , the U.S. troop presence at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has swelled to roughly 2,500 , a sign of the United States ’ commitment to Saudi security as tensions with Iran remain high .
Although Trump has favored a drawdown of U.S. troops in the Middle East , Air Force Col. Jason King told reporters that the white tents that house U.S. troops at the base could be replaced with trailers and other structures that showcase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country .
Many in Washington , particularly lawmakers , have been more critical of Saudi Arabia since the 2018 killing of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi , but there is little sign that the Trump administration will reduce its presence in the country .
Turkey launches airstrikes .
Turkey launched several deadly airstrikes against Syrian government forces in northwestern Syria today in response to an artillery attack that left six Turkish soldiers dead .
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the airstrikes killed 35 Syrian troops , a major escalation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country .
The airstrikes were also prompted , in part , by renewed Russian and Syrian operations against a major highway in the province , causing hundreds of thousands of new refugees to flee north toward Turkey .
DoD AI chief to retire .
Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan , who served as the head of the Pentagon ’ s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center , is set to retire , Defense News reports .
The JAIC , as it is known , was established in late 2018 in an attempt by officials to consolidate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coordinating structure .
Impeachment witness leaves White House .
Jennifer Williams , a national security aide to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence , will be leaving her post in the vice president ’ s office to take up a post at U.S. Central Command , Politico reports .
Williams was one of the White House officials who listened to the call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that led to Trump ’ s impeachment , and she served as a key witness during the House Judiciary Committee ’ s investigation .
Another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine , is retiring from the State Department , NPR reports .
Yovanovitch became another key witness in the impeachment trial after being ousted in a smear campaign by Trump ’ s associates .
Pompeo faced criticism from former diplomats for not offering her any public support throughout the impeachment process New South Sudan envoy .
The State Department appointed a new envoy for South Sudan , the veteran diplomat W. Stuart Symington .
It comes as Washington grows increasingly frustrated with the African country ’ s warring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unity government .
Lunch order gone wrong .
Top Israeli military intelligence officials have been reprimanded after dispatching a spy to the West Bank to procure Palestinian tahini , the delicious sesame paste that is a staple of Middle Eastern cuisine .
One lieutenant colonel will be dismissed from the army over the incident , according to an Israeli Defense Forces spokesman .
Haaretz has the story .
For more from FP , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or typos @ @ @ @ @

Welcome to Security Brief. What’s on tap today: Qasim al-Raymi, the leader of the al Qaeda branch in Yemen, is believed to have been killed in a CIA airstrike , Pompeo condemns the Chinese crackdown on Uighur Muslims during a visit to Kazakhstan , and Turkey carries out an airstrike against Syrian forces .
Welcome to Security Brief. What’s on tap today: Qasim al-Raymi, the leader of the al Qaeda branch in Yemen, is believed to have been killed in a CIA airstrike, Pompeo condemns the Chinese crackdown on Uighur Muslims during a visit to Kazakhstan, and Turkey carries out an airstrike against Syrian forces.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Monday, please sign up here.
U.S. Strikes at Terrorist Leader
U.S. officials believe the leader of the al Qaeda branch in Yemen was killed in a CIA airstrike, a former administration official tells Foreign Policy, confirming a New York Times report out Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to confirm the reports on Friday with a series of retweets.
Significant blow. If confirmed, the death of Qasim al-Raymi, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, who has a long history of terrorist activities dating back to the 1990s, would represent a significant blow to the group, which on Sunday claimed responsibility for the last year’s deadly shooting at Naval Air Station Pensacola by a Saudi National. Raymi was sentenced to five years in prison in 2005 for plotting to assassinate the U.S. ambassador to Yemen, but he escaped in 2006. He has been linked to numerous terrorist attacks, including the 2008 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa and the 2009 “underwear bomber.” He rose to become emir of al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate in 2015.
The State Department had offered a $10 million reward for information on his whereabouts.
U.S. officials had been tracking Raymi since November 2019, when they first learned of his location from an informer in Yemen, according to the Times. Officials expressed confidence that he was killed in the January airstrike but were awaiting confirmation before making a public announcement.
Not the first attempt. This is not the first time the United States has targeted Raymi. In the first major military operation authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, Navy SEAL Team 6 attempted to kill or capture the terrorist leader in 2017. The operation failed, leaving Chief Petty Officer William Owens dead.
The Pentagon on Friday said officials were aware of reports alleging Raymi’s death but declined to provide further comment. The National Security Council did not respond to an inquiry from Foreign Policy.
What We’re Watching
State of the Union. Trump is slated to give his third annual State of the Union address on Tuesday before a deeply divided Congress that voted to impeach him—and also looks ready to acquit him on partisan lines the next day. But rather than take a massive victory lap on impeachment, White House aides tell reporters they expect Trump to focus his speech on policy substance, including foreign-policy priorities such as the strength of the U.S. military and the recently clinched U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
Resumption of hostilities against the Islamic State. Iraqi military officials said in a statement on Jan. 30 that joint military operations with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State have resumed. The operations were put on pause nearly three weeks ago after the U.S. assassination of the Quds Force leader Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani and the Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis dramatically raised tensions with Iran, causing both the United States and Iraq to focus on the possible threat from Iran—and causing Iraq to seek to reduce the U.S. troop presence in the country.
Pompeo supports Uighurs amid China crackdown. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pressed Kazakhstan to condemn China over its crackdown on Uighur Muslims during a visit to the Central Asian country on Sunday. China has forced between 1 million and 2 million people into so-called reeducation camps in western China in recent years—some of whom are ethnically Kazakh—under the guise of a counterterrorism campaign.
U.S. expands troop presence at Saudi base. Since last summer, the U.S. troop presence at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has swelled to roughly 2,500, a sign of the United States’ commitment to Saudi security as tensions with Iran remain high. Although Trump has favored a drawdown of U.S. troops in the Middle East, Air Force Col. Jason King told reporters that the white tents that house U.S. troops at the base could be replaced with trailers and other structures that showcase the permanence of the U.S. presence in the country. Many in Washington, particularly lawmakers, have been more critical of Saudi Arabia since the 2018 killing of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but there is little sign that the Trump administration will reduce its presence in the country.
Turkey launches airstrikes. Turkey launched several deadly airstrikes against Syrian government forces in northwestern Syria today in response to an artillery attack that left six Turkish soldiers dead. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the airstrikes killed 35 Syrian troops, a major escalation of the fighting in that part of the country. The airstrikes were also prompted, in part, by renewed Russian and Syrian operations against a major highway in the province, causing hundreds of thousands of new refugees to flee north toward Turkey.
Movers and Shakers
DoD AI chief to retire. Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, who served as the head of the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, is set to retire, Defense News reports. The JAIC, as it is known, was established in late 2018 in an attempt by officials to consolidate several hundred AI projects under a single coordinating structure.
Impeachment witness leaves White House. Jennifer Williams, a national security aide to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, will be leaving her post in the vice president’s office to take up a post at U.S. Central Command, Politico reports. Williams was one of the White House officials who listened to the call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that led to Trump’s impeachment, and she served as a key witness during the House Judiciary Committee’s investigation.
Another impeachment witness retires. Marie Yovanovitch, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, is retiring from the State Department, NPR reports. Yovanovitch became another key witness in the impeachment trial after being ousted in a smear campaign by Trump’s associates. Pompeo faced criticism from former diplomats for not offering her any public support throughout the impeachment process
New South Sudan envoy. The State Department appointed a new envoy for South Sudan, the veteran diplomat W. Stuart Symington. It comes as Washington grows increasingly frustrated with the African country’s warring factions and stalled efforts to form a unity government.
Odds and Ends
Lunch order gone wrong. Top Israeli military intelligence officials have been reprimanded after dispatching a spy to the West Bank to procure Palestinian tahini, the delicious sesame paste that is a staple of Middle Eastern cuisine. One lieutenant colonel will be dismissed from the army over the incident, according to an Israeli Defense Forces spokesman. Haaretz has the story.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.
Dan Haverty contributed to this report.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-03--Knock-On Effects of China’s Coronavirus May Be Worse Than Thought

Knock-On Effects of China ’ s Coronavirus May Be Worse Than Thought As Chinese markets opened Monday , the effects of the mushrooming coronavirus outbreak hit with dramatic force .
Within minutes , trading was suspended on multiple stocks as they hit the daily 10 percent limit that Chinese law allows—almost all downhill .
China ’ s heavily controlled stock market is a relatively unimportant cog in its economy , but the next few months are likely to prove painful to an economy still reeling from its slowest growth in three decades and a prolonged trade war with the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that has now reached nearly 20,000 confirmed infections continue to make themselves known .
The knock-on effects of the virus and China ’ s dramatic response are daily making themselves felt , from disrupted air travel to rattled supply chains and plummeting commodity prices that are dampening growth prospects from Southeast Asia to South America and beyond .
Monday was nominally the country ’ s first day back at work after the Lunar New Year holiday , normally a week long but which was already extended for three days to avoid the travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of the festival .
Almost all of the country save Xinjiang , however , is still on an uneasy vacation until at least Feb. 9 , and schools and universities are likely to stay suspended even longer .
Many prominent chains , from Apple to the hotpot giant Haidilao , have closed their doors until further notice .
Even in municipalities that are nominally back at work , such as Beijing , the streets and subways remain eerily empty .
Economists and analysts still caution that the full economic fallout depends on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak and on whether the return to work—especially for migrant laborers , who make up a substantial part of China ’ s manufacturing workforce—can be managed smoothly .
But most expect Chinese growth in the first quarter of the year to slide sharply , before rebounding later in the year to finish not much worse than the 6 percent increase in GDP China posted last year .
Within China , the outbreak and the government ’ s response—essentially firewalling off nearly 100 million people in central Hubei province , where the virus broke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , from hospitality and retail to airlines , insurance , and manufacturing .
Numerous cities and towns have implemented their own quarantine measures .
Among the most restrictive are those in Wenzhou , the city worst hit by the virus outside Hubei and a major cog in China ’ s maritime trade .
Migrant laborers have also been particularly badly hit , both due to widespread prejudice against them as perceived carriers of the virus and because the new year is usually when they seek new employment .
For those who are able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wages are high .
“ I ’ m paying out 150 percent of the usual salaries right now , ” Li , a factory owner in the industrial city of Tangshan , far from the virus ’ s epicenter , explained over the phone .
“ Almost nobody is available.
” When trying to assess just how painful the outbreak will be for the world ’ s second-largest economy , most analysts reach back to the 2003 SARS outbreak , which knocked off an estimated 1 percent or more from China ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that the coronavirus will have an even bigger impact than SARS—for several reasons .
First , the Chinese economy is a lot , lot bigger than it was then .
At the same time , the Chinese economy—which has since the financial crisis sought to shift away from energy-intensive manufacturing and exports and embrace more services and internal demand—is more vulnerable to disruption than before .
It ’ s also less able to turn to a quick-fired manufacturing-led rebound to erase the effects of disease disruption , as it did in 2003 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ syndrome .
Finally , China ended last year wheezing , with official growth rates at their lowest level since 1990—about a 6 percent increase in GDP—and with confidence rattled by a yearlong trade war with the United States that left lots of hefty tariffs on Chinese exports .
China ’ s Purchasing Managers ’ Index , a measure of factory activity , was already showing signs of manufacturing contraction before the full effects of the virus had been accounted for .
“ In other words , the coronavirus is hitting a weaker economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” noted Alicia García-Herrero , the chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at the French bank Natixis .
“ [ W ] e should be expecting a rapid deceleration in growth in the first quarter of 2020 , and gradual stabilization for the rest of the year.
” The prolonged shutdown over the Lunar New Year holiday has already played havoc with internal travel , workplace staffing , and even operations for many small businesses , which can expect to feel the brunt of the pain .
The uncertainty over the duration of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ addition to the lack of many workers , makes billing and paying off loans problematic for firms that live out of cash flow .
The government has issued regulations saying that workers must be paid throughout the extended holidays or if they are unable to return to work because of quarantine restrictions .
“ Business interruption and closures are likely to be especially devastating for many small and medium-sized enterprises ” with impacts that could last into the third quarter of the year , said Kaho Yu , a China expert at Verisk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across most industries in China will be delayed due to the virus breakout.
” Factory closures are playing havoc with international firms , even giants like Apple , which has temporarily shut offices and production ; many other U.S. businesses reliant on Chinese suppliers are facing production and sourcing headaches of their own now , which may only accelerate the so-called decoupling between the U.S. and Chinese economies .
Numerous airlines have canceled flights to China , with some not planning a resumption until April .
Asian tourism is also likely to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ implement harsh travel bans on Chinese visitors .
Thailand , in particular , is torn between public demand to close its borders to Chinese visitors and the needs of an tourist industry increasingly dependent on the Chinese middle class ; the losses have been estimated at $ 1.5 billion .
And the virus ’ s ripple effects are being felt keenly in certain commodities markets , like crude oil and copper , both of which China normally gobbles up in huge quantities .
Prices for oil in New York and London are both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first began a month ago , which is bad news for oil-dependent economies in Russia , the Middle East , and even the U.S. shale patch .
Wood Mackenzie , the energy consultancy , expects that the virus and travel disruptions will hammer Chinese demand for oil early in the year , potentially forcing OPEC to yet again cut output to put a floor under the oil price .
Saudi Arabia , the biggest producer inside OPEC , is reportedly mulling a big cut in the cartel ’ s output to keep the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical materials , such as copper , are also in the doldrums , which will weigh on emerging markets like Chile , Peru , Brazil , and Indonesia , in a year in which developing economies were expected to rebound and drive global growth toward recovery .
And the knock-on effects might not be limited to emerging markets .
Australia and Canada could feel the pinch from weaker demand for copper , at least .
U.S. farmers and manufacturers who had hopes that the “ phase one ” trade deal just reached with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are still waiting for orders to materialize , and they may be kept waiting if China ’ s growth and demand for imports slows during the first half of the year .
That ’ s not the only way the virus , and its economic impacts , could disappoint Washington , despite Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross ’ s cheering that the disease could mean more American jobs .
This year China has pledged to a doubling of its GDP since 2000 , which requires sustained growth .
The outbreak and its impacts make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a vigorous response from Chinese leaders when they meet in March .
Most economists expect even more stimulus , looser monetary policies to stimulate demand , more subsidies to bolster struggling firms , and a weaker renminbi to goose exports .
A weaker Chinese currency in particular would be anathema to the Trump administration , which touted reheated Chinese promises not to manipulate the currency in its phase one deal .
China , however , is showing no signs of playing nice with the United States ; official propaganda has already switched to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus .
“ The bigger the shock now , the larger the policy expansion will be needed to achieve the growth target , ” said García-Herrero of Natixis .

As Chinese markets opened Monday, the effects of the mushrooming coronavirus outbreak hit with dramatic force. Within minutes, trading was suspended on multiple stocks as they hit the daily 10 percent limit that Chinese law allows—almost all downhill.
As Chinese markets opened Monday, the effects of the mushrooming coronavirus outbreak hit with dramatic force. Within minutes, trading was suspended on multiple stocks as they hit the daily 10 percent limit that Chinese law allows—almost all downhill.
China’s heavily controlled stock market is a relatively unimportant cog in its economy, but the next few months are likely to prove painful to an economy still reeling from its slowest growth in three decades and a prolonged trade war with the United States as the effects of a virus that has now reached nearly 20,000 confirmed infections continue to make themselves known.
The knock-on effects of the virus and China’s dramatic response are daily making themselves felt, from disrupted air travel to rattled supply chains and plummeting commodity prices that are dampening growth prospects from Southeast Asia to South America and beyond.
Monday was nominally the country’s first day back at work after the Lunar New Year holiday, normally a week long but which was already extended for three days to avoid the travel rush that usually accompanies the start and end of the festival. Almost all of the country save Xinjiang, however, is still on an uneasy vacation until at least Feb. 9, and schools and universities are likely to stay suspended even longer. Many prominent chains, from Apple to the hotpot giant Haidilao, have closed their doors until further notice. Even in municipalities that are nominally back at work, such as Beijing, the streets and subways remain eerily empty.
Economists and analysts still caution that the full economic fallout depends on how well China can ultimately contain the outbreak and on whether the return to work—especially for migrant laborers, who make up a substantial part of China’s manufacturing workforce—can be managed smoothly. But most expect Chinese growth in the first quarter of the year to slide sharply, before rebounding later in the year to finish not much worse than the 6 percent increase in GDP China posted last year.
Within China, the outbreak and the government’s response—essentially firewalling off nearly 100 million people in central Hubei province, where the virus broke out—already have impacted a host of sectors, from hospitality and retail to airlines, insurance, and manufacturing. Numerous cities and towns have implemented their own quarantine measures. Among the most restrictive are those in Wenzhou, the city worst hit by the virus outside Hubei and a major cog in China’s maritime trade.
Migrant laborers have also been particularly badly hit, both due to widespread prejudice against them as perceived carriers of the virus and because the new year is usually when they seek new employment. For those who are able to look for work, however, wages are high.
“I’m paying out 150 percent of the usual salaries right now,” Li, a factory owner in the industrial city of Tangshan, far from the virus’s epicenter, explained over the phone. “Almost nobody is available.”
When trying to assess just how painful the outbreak will be for the world’s second-largest economy, most analysts reach back to the 2003 SARS outbreak, which knocked off an estimated 1 percent or more from China’s growth rate. But the consensus now is that the coronavirus will have an even bigger impact than SARS—for several reasons.
First, the Chinese economy is a lot, lot bigger than it was then. At the same time, the Chinese economy—which has since the financial crisis sought to shift away from energy-intensive manufacturing and exports and embrace more services and internal demand—is more vulnerable to disruption than before. It’s also less able to turn to a quick-fired manufacturing-led rebound to erase the effects of disease disruption, as it did in 2003 after SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome. Finally, China ended last year wheezing, with official growth rates at their lowest level since 1990—about a 6 percent increase in GDP—and with confidence rattled by a yearlong trade war with the United States that left lots of hefty tariffs on Chinese exports. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, a measure of factory activity, was already showing signs of manufacturing contraction before the full effects of the virus had been accounted for.
“In other words, the coronavirus is hitting a weaker economy than was the case with SARS,” noted Alicia García-Herrero, the chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at the French bank Natixis. “[W]e should be expecting a rapid deceleration in growth in the first quarter of 2020, and gradual stabilization for the rest of the year.”
The prolonged shutdown over the Lunar New Year holiday has already played havoc with internal travel, workplace staffing, and even operations for many small businesses, which can expect to feel the brunt of the pain. The uncertainty over the duration of the outbreak and the quarantine measures, in addition to the lack of many workers, makes billing and paying off loans problematic for firms that live out of cash flow. The government has issued regulations saying that workers must be paid throughout the extended holidays or if they are unable to return to work because of quarantine restrictions.
“Business interruption and closures are likely to be especially devastating for many small and medium-sized enterprises” with impacts that could last into the third quarter of the year, said Kaho Yu, a China expert at Verisk Maplecroft. “The entire production cycle across most industries in China will be delayed due to the virus breakout.”
Factory closures are playing havoc with international firms, even giants like Apple, which has temporarily shut offices and production; many other U.S. businesses reliant on Chinese suppliers are facing production and sourcing headaches of their own now, which may only accelerate the so-called decoupling between the U.S. and Chinese economies.
Numerous airlines have canceled flights to China, with some not planning a resumption until April. Asian tourism is also likely to be severely hit, especially as neighboring countries implement harsh travel bans on Chinese visitors. Thailand, in particular, is torn between public demand to close its borders to Chinese visitors and the needs of an tourist industry increasingly dependent on the Chinese middle class; the losses have been estimated at $1.5 billion.
And the virus’s ripple effects are being felt keenly in certain commodities markets, like crude oil and copper, both of which China normally gobbles up in huge quantities. Prices for oil in New York and London are both down about 15 percent since the outbreak first began a month ago, which is bad news for oil-dependent economies in Russia, the Middle East, and even the U.S. shale patch. Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultancy, expects that the virus and travel disruptions will hammer Chinese demand for oil early in the year, potentially forcing OPEC to yet again cut output to put a floor under the oil price. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer inside OPEC, is reportedly mulling a big cut in the cartel’s output to keep the price of oil from collapsing.
Other critical materials, such as copper, are also in the doldrums, which will weigh on emerging markets like Chile, Peru, Brazil, and Indonesia, in a year in which developing economies were expected to rebound and drive global growth toward recovery.
And the knock-on effects might not be limited to emerging markets. Australia and Canada could feel the pinch from weaker demand for copper, at least. U.S. farmers and manufacturers who had hopes that the “phase one” trade deal just reached with China might juice exports to the country are still waiting for orders to materialize, and they may be kept waiting if China’s growth and demand for imports slows during the first half of the year.
That’s not the only way the virus, and its economic impacts, could disappoint Washington, despite Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s cheering that the disease could mean more American jobs. This year China has pledged to a doubling of its GDP since 2000, which requires sustained growth. The outbreak and its impacts make that more challenging—and will almost certainly prompt a vigorous response from Chinese leaders when they meet in March.
Most economists expect even more stimulus, looser monetary policies to stimulate demand, more subsidies to bolster struggling firms, and a weaker renminbi to goose exports. A weaker Chinese currency in particular would be anathema to the Trump administration, which touted reheated Chinese promises not to manipulate the currency in its phase one deal. China, however, is showing no signs of playing nice with the United States; official propaganda has already switched to blaming America for the global reaction to the virus.
“The bigger the shock now, the larger the policy expansion will be needed to achieve the growth target,” said García-Herrero of Natixis.


foreignpolicy--2020-02-03--Wuhan Virus Death Toll Rises as International Response Takes Shape

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : the international response to the Wuhan virus begins taking shape , uncertainty reigns as candidates wait for delayed results in Iowa , and the EU attempts to lower tensions with Iran .
Morning Brief ’ s usual author , Audrey Wilson , is off today .
As always , we welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The international response to the epidemic is gaining steam , with members of the G-7 agreeing to coordinate on travel regulations and research into the virus .
The World Health Organization has also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a team including U.S. experts expected to head to Wuhan as early as this week .
Meanwhile , a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has criticized the U.S. response to the epidemic , saying that U.S. actions “ unceasingly manufactured and spread panic.
” The official Chinese death toll from the coronavirus outbreak now stands at 361 , overtaking the number during the SARS outbreak when 349 people died on the Chinese mainland .
However , the coronavirus does not seem to have the same fatality rate as SARS , and the recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This news comes as China opened its first rapidly-built 1,000-bed hospital on the outskirts of Wuhan , with another expected to be opened within days .
China ’ s stock market is also struggling due to increased uncertainty , with the Shanghai Composite index closing almost 8 percent lower on Monday , its sharpest daily drop in four years .
FP ’ s James Palmer and Keith Johnson report that the economic fallout from the virus may be worse than previously thought .
All eyes on Iowa .
Chaos reigned in the midwestern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and into the early hours of Tuesday morning after the app used for reporting caucus results failed .
Democratic Party officials struggled to explain the failure to eager reporters and angry campaign staffers and pledged to use a paper trail and photos of vote tally sheets to confirm the results .
As of this writing , there are still no official results for the Democratic caucuses , but that has not stopped some candidates from claiming victory .
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg appeared to claim victory , declaring “ So , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , …But , we know , by the time it is all said and done , Iowa you have shocked the nation .
Because , by all indications , we are going on to New Hampshire victorious.
” Other campaigns disputed Buttigieg ’ s claim and Iowa party officials promised to release results later on Tuesday .
Europe ’ s top diplomat in Iran .
European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell is on the second day of his two-day trip to Iran , his first visit to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The trip is seen as an attempt at cooling tensions over Iran ’ s nuclear program following the killing of Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone attack at the beginning of January .
Turkey attacks in Syria .
Yesterday , Turkish forces killed at least 13 Syrian troops in artillery strikes near the Syrian town of Saraqeb in Idlib according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights .
Turkey ’ s state-run Anadolu news agency said Turkish forces had hit 54 targets in Idlib , and had killed 76 Syrian troops in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Syrian forces that killed eight Turkish soldiers .
Malawi ’ s presidential election annulled .
Malawi ’ s constitutional court voided the 2019 elections that would have granted President Peter Mutharika a second term , pointing to widespread electoral tampering , including the use of white out correction fluid to change votes on paper ballots .
Official results claimed Mutharika had won 38 percent of the vote , a number the opposition candidates Lazarus Chakwera and Saulos Chilima disputed .
Judges have ordered that another election be held in the next 150 days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sloppy manner , they did not show the tell-tale signs of organized election fraud—and public anger could have been quelled earlier if international observers had released key figures—Luke Tyburski argued in FP in November .
Kosovo approves new PM .
After months of negotiations , Albin Kurti has been named the new prime minister of Kosovo .
Kurti has promised to tackle two major issues for Kosovo : corruption and its relationship with Serbia .
Kurti has promised to take a tough stance on negotiations with its neighbor and also said his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Court of Justice for crimes committed by Serbian forces in the 1998-99 war .
U.K.-EU trade deal .
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson set the tone of his government ’ s planned trade negotiations with the EU in a speech warning that the U.K. would not accept alignment on EU regulations and would instead be content with a relationship similar to one that exists between the EU and Australia .
Negotiators in Brussels are pushing Johnson to accept alignment on state aid and competition laws to prevent the U.K. government from increasing state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Berlin-based artist has created a solution to city gridlock—by creating an artificial traffic jam .
Artist Simon Weckert ’ s latest work involves walking down the street trailing 99 smartphones in a cart .
The phones send data to Google Maps , which in turn marks the location as experiencing slow-moving traffic .
“ Through this activity , it is possible to turn a green street red , which has an impact in the physical world by navigating cars on another route to avoid being stuck in traffic , ” Weckert wrote .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the international response to the Wuhan virus begins taking shape, uncertainty reigns as candidates wait for delayed results in Iowa , and the EU attempts to lower tensions with Iran .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the international response to the Wuhan virus begins taking shape, uncertainty reigns as candidates wait for delayed results in Iowa, and the EU attempts to lower tensions with Iran.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Wuhan Virus Death Toll Rises
The international response to the epidemic is gaining steam, with members of the G-7 agreeing to coordinate on travel regulations and research into the virus. The World Health Organization has also announced progress in coordinating with China, with a team including U.S. experts expected to head to Wuhan as early as this week.
Meanwhile, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has criticized the U.S. response to the epidemic, saying that U.S. actions “unceasingly manufactured and spread panic.”
The official Chinese death toll from the coronavirus outbreak now stands at 361, overtaking the number during the SARS outbreak when 349 people died on the Chinese mainland. However, the coronavirus does not seem to have the same fatality rate as SARS, and the recovery rate also seems to be improving. This news comes as China opened its first rapidly-built 1,000-bed hospital on the outskirts of Wuhan, with another expected to be opened within days.
China’s stock market is also struggling due to increased uncertainty, with the Shanghai Composite index closing almost 8 percent lower on Monday, its sharpest daily drop in four years. FP’s James Palmer and Keith Johnson report that the economic fallout from the virus may be worse than previously thought.
What We’re Following Today
All eyes on Iowa. Chaos reigned in the midwestern U.S. state of Iowa on Monday night and into the early hours of Tuesday morning after the app used for reporting caucus results failed. Democratic Party officials struggled to explain the failure to eager reporters and angry campaign staffers and pledged to use a paper trail and photos of vote tally sheets to confirm the results.
As of this writing, there are still no official results for the Democratic caucuses, but that has not stopped some candidates from claiming victory. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg appeared to claim victory, declaring, “So, we don’t know all the results… But, we know, by the time it is all said and done, Iowa you have shocked the nation. Because, by all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious.” Other campaigns disputed Buttigieg’s claim and Iowa party officials promised to release results later on Tuesday.
Europe’s top diplomat in Iran. European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell is on the second day of his two-day trip to Iran, his first visit to the country since taking up the post. The trip is seen as an attempt at cooling tensions over Iran’s nuclear program following the killing of Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone attack at the beginning of January.
Turkey attacks in Syria. Yesterday, Turkish forces killed at least 13 Syrian troops in artillery strikes near the Syrian town of Saraqeb in Idlib according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency said Turkish forces had hit 54 targets in Idlib, and had killed 76 Syrian troops in “retaliation” for a strike by Syrian forces that killed eight Turkish soldiers.
Keep an Eye On
Malawi’s presidential election annulled. Malawi’s constitutional court voided the 2019 elections that would have granted President Peter Mutharika a second term, pointing to widespread electoral tampering, including the use of white out correction fluid to change votes on paper ballots. Official results claimed Mutharika had won 38 percent of the vote, a number the opposition candidates Lazarus Chakwera and Saulos Chilima disputed. Judges have ordered that another election be held in the next 150 days. Although the results were reported in a sloppy manner, they did not show the tell-tale signs of organized election fraud—and public anger could have been quelled earlier if international observers had released key figures—Luke Tyburski argued in FP in November.
Kosovo approves new PM. After months of negotiations, Albin Kurti has been named the new prime minister of Kosovo. Kurti has promised to tackle two major issues for Kosovo: corruption and its relationship with Serbia. Kurti has promised to take a tough stance on negotiations with its neighbor and also said his government would take Serbia to the International Court of Justice for crimes committed by Serbian forces in the 1998-99 war.
U.K.-EU trade deal. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson set the tone of his government’s planned trade negotiations with the EU in a speech warning that the U.K. would not accept alignment on EU regulations and would instead be content with a relationship similar to one that exists between the EU and Australia. Negotiators in Brussels are pushing Johnson to accept alignment on state aid and competition laws to prevent the U.K. government from increasing state aid to its heavy industries.
Odds and Ends
A Berlin-based artist has created a solution to city gridlock—by creating an artificial traffic jam. Artist Simon Weckert’s latest work involves walking down the street trailing 99 smartphones in a cart. The phones send data to Google Maps, which in turn marks the location as experiencing slow-moving traffic. “Through this activity, it is possible to turn a green street red, which has an impact in the physical world by navigating cars on another route to avoid being stuck in traffic,” Weckert wrote.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-30--China Will Do Anything to Deflect Coronavirus Blame

China Will Do Anything to Deflect Coronavirus Blame On March 22 , Axios on HBO aired an interview it had conducted with Cui Tiankai , the Chinese ambassador to the United States , nearly a week earlier in which Cui reiterated his original Feb. 9 assertion that spreading coronavirus-related conspiracy theories would be “ crazy ” and “ very harmful.
” Cui was referring , albeit indirectly , to claims that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was developed in a military lab , perhaps in the United States , promoted by fellow Chinese officials .
He particularly appeared to distance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs ( MFA ) that the U.S. military may have brought the coronavirus to China , retorting , “ I don ’ t have the responsibility to explain everybody ’ s view to you.
” The statement kicked off speculation over a possible split or spat within the MFA : that between the well-respected Cui and his less polished colleagues Zhao Lijian and Hua Chunying , both spokespeople for the MFA ; Zhao and Hua have been tweeting that the United States may be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ target for all coronavirus-related blame .
For example , Bloomberg wrote on March 22 : “ Such public differences are rare among Chinese officials who are famous for their ability to stick closely to the Communist Party ’ s official line ” and quoted another observer who called Cui “ professional ” and “ an adult ” whose words should be taken as an authoritative representation of the true MFA position .
But the assertion that there is anything short of a leadership consensus within the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite a momentary turn to the language of conciliation from Zhao , what observers should be focusing on instead is the consistent core of messaging coming from all of Beijing ’ s official and propaganda channels , including Cui : that the question of the source of the virus is a scientific question that requires listening to scientific and expert opinions—not U.S. or other foreign officials .
Not a single reputable epidemiologist has shown any evidence that the coronavirus came from anywhere else but China , and the Italian doctor whose comments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the case has publicly refuted it .
Yet this is important because by permanently , or even temporarily , injecting doubt into the origins of the coronavirus through this question , Beijing hopes to escape blame for its initial cover-up of the outbreak in December and January , which cost the world precious time to rally resources and create a potentially successful containment strategy .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
To understand this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of China ’ s evolving narrative on the coronavirus ’ s origins since February , which reveals a two-pronged approach aimed at redirecting blame away from China and sowing confusion and discord among China ’ s detractors for its bungling of its initial coronavirus response .
Beijing first began leveraging studies and statements made by scientists to advance its claim that the coronavirus may have originated outside China in late February .
The first study that offered ammunition for the effort was published on Feb. 20 under the auspices of the Chinese Academy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brain Research .
It concluded that the Wuhan seafood market—as opposed to China at large—might not have been the source of the virus .
One week later , the official People ’ s Daily was the first to leap from doubting the Wuhan market as the place of origin to doubting China as the country of origin .
“ Zhong Sheng , ” a homophonous byline meaning “ Voice of China ” ( or perhaps more aptly China ’ s alarm bell ) whose bellicose commentaries are collectively written by the paper ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People ’ s Daily on foreign affairs , wrote on Feb. 28 that determining a disease ’ s origins is “ difficult ” and that the coronavirus “ did not necessarily originate in China.
” On the same day , a CGTN reporter seemingly fished for further talking points at a press conference for the World Health Organization ( WHO ) by asking about the possibility the virus came from outside China .
This solicited a reply from Michael Ryan , the executive director for WHO ’ s Health Emergencies Program , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are a global phenomenon.
” While the doctor ’ s statement referenced diseases at large , the quote would not only be referenced by Zhong Sheng on March 20 but also framed to support the narrative that the coronavirus could have emerged anywhere .
From March 4 to 9 , the MFA opened a second authoritative channel to disentangle China from the growing global catastrophe when its MFA spokespeople in press conferences and on individual ( but Beijing-controlled ) Twitter accounts claimed that the current coronavirus outbreak ’ s origins were yet to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time that U.S. officials began to hit back .
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the coronavirus the “ Wuhan virus ” and stated in an interview that “ no less authority than the Chinese Communist Party said it came from Wuhan.
” U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O ’ Brien was blunter , pointing out that “ rather than using best practices , this outbreak in Wuhan was covered up.
” U.S. President Donald Trump stated in a nationally televised address that the outbreak “ started in China and is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 , the CCP found its full footing , and the official propaganda line on the coronavirus ’ s origins crystallized when MFA spokesman Geng Shuang remarked in a regular press conference : “ Regarding the question of the origins of the virus , this is a scientific question that requires listening to scientific and expert opinions.
” It would be repeated over the coming weeks nearly verbatim .
To outsiders , it might have read merely as questioning the wet market story , but it was a clear signal to start obscuring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By March 12 , Beijing launched its most bombastic tactic yet : blaming the United States directly for the coronavirus outbreak .
To be sure , conspiracies of U.S. plans to undermine China are a regular feature of the Chinese internet .
But this time the MFA itself was the source .
Zhao unleashed a tweet storm accusing the U.S. Army of bringing the virus to Wuhan in October .
Perhaps due to the U.S. State Department ’ s summoning of Cui to warn China against pushing the U.S. origins conspiracy further , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a week .
But by March 20 , the MFA was at it again , this time sowing new confusion by intertwining different , if related , U.S.-China disputes .
That day , both Zhong Sheng and Geng repeated the official line that “ the origins of the virus are a scientific question that requires listening to scientific and expert opinions.
” Yet Geng went further , adding the new wrinkle that the United States is expelling Chinese journalists to “ hinder the outside world from getting information on the United States ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on this canard on Twitter the same day .
As the MFA continued to push the so-called scientific nature of the outbreak ’ s origins question , on March 22 party-state media launched another convenient explanation for the coronavirus : Maybe it originated in Italy !
This is important because it reveals Beijing is content to shift blame away from China to anywhere in the world , not just the United States .
And yes , on March 17 , Cui politely suggested : “ Why not let our scientists do their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , eventually ?
” Cui also stated : “ You could try to interpret somebody else ’ s statement .
I ’ m not in the position , and I don ’ t have the responsibility to explain everybody ’ s view to you.
” This was a sidestep of the above conspiracies , not a refutation .
In conclusion , when viewing Cui ’ s remarks in context with the rest of Beijing ’ s authoritative output on the question of the coronavirus ’ s origins , it becomes clear that his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than contradict them .
The CCP does not actually hope to convince the world that the virus may have started in the United States—or Italy , for that matter .
But it absolutely does feel the need to blunt and undercut Washington ’ s efforts to point out China ’ s early role in letting the coronavirus get out of hand , a devastating reality for Beijing ’ s efforts to portray itself internationally as a responsible global power and potentially damaging domestically too if this international consensus is allowed to seep back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why none other than Politburo member Yang Jiechi issued a rare and authoritative threat of a political “ counterattack ” against the United States during a phone call to Pompeo on March 16 , implying that if Washington continues its assault on Beijing over the virus , China will fight back .
By allowing Zhao and Hua to muddy the debate over the origins of the coronavirus , the Chinese leadership hopes the discourse ’ s center of gravity can be pulled away from blaming Beijing for the current global catastrophe to what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Let the scientists worry about the virus ’ s currently indeterminate origins .
As Zhao and Hua play bad cop , Cui—the top representative of Beijing in Washington—understandably plays good cop .
In the end , Cui , the MFA spokespeople , and the People ’ s Daily have all been consistent in pushing a single goal : obfuscation .
To be sure , Beijing may well decide this messaging is counterproductive and cool it down .
But for now bellicose conspiracies and smooth-talking diplomats all are working under the same orders : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the greatest global health catastrophe of our time .

On March 22, Axios on HBO aired an interview it had conducted with Cui Tiankai, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, nearly a week earlier in which Cui reiterated his original Feb. 9 assertion that spreading coronavirus-related conspiracy theories would be “crazy” and “very harmful.” Cui was referring, albeit indirectly, to claims that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was developed in a military lab, perhaps in the United States, promoted by fellow Chinese officials. He particularly appeared to distance himself from the recently touted conspiracy by a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) that the U.S. military may have brought the coronavirus to China, retorting, “I don’t have the responsibility to explain everybody’s view to you.”
On March 22, Axios on HBO aired an interview it had conducted with Cui Tiankai, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, nearly a week earlier in which Cui reiterated his original Feb. 9 assertion that spreading coronavirus-related conspiracy theories would be “crazy” and “very harmful.” Cui was referring, albeit indirectly, to claims that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was developed in a military lab, perhaps in the United States, promoted by fellow Chinese officials. He particularly appeared to distance himself from the recently touted conspiracy by a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) that the U.S. military may have brought the coronavirus to China, retorting, “I don’t have the responsibility to explain everybody’s view to you.”
The statement kicked off speculation over a possible split or spat within the MFA: that between the well-respected Cui and his less polished colleagues Zhao Lijian and Hua Chunying, both spokespeople for the MFA; Zhao and Hua have been tweeting that the United States may be the source of the virus—and thus the appropriate target for all coronavirus-related blame.
For example, Bloomberg wrote on March 22: “Such public differences are rare among Chinese officials who are famous for their ability to stick closely to the Communist Party’s official line” and quoted another observer who called Cui “professional” and “an adult” whose words should be taken as an authoritative representation of the true MFA position.
But the assertion that there is anything short of a leadership consensus within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to spread conspiracy narratives is ill-conceived. Indeed, despite a momentary turn to the language of conciliation from Zhao, what observers should be focusing on instead is the consistent core of messaging coming from all of Beijing’s official and propaganda channels, including Cui: that the question of the source of the virus is a scientific question that requires listening to scientific and expert opinions—not U.S. or other foreign officials. Not a single reputable epidemiologist has shown any evidence that the coronavirus came from anywhere else but China, and the Italian doctor whose comments were taken out of context to boost the case has publicly refuted it. Yet this is important because by permanently, or even temporarily, injecting doubt into the origins of the coronavirus through this question, Beijing hopes to escape blame for its initial cover-up of the outbreak in December and January, which cost the world precious time to rally resources and create a potentially successful containment strategy.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
To understand this, though, requires a comprehensive dissection of China’s evolving narrative on the coronavirus’s origins since February, which reveals a two-pronged approach aimed at redirecting blame away from China and sowing confusion and discord among China’s detractors for its bungling of its initial coronavirus response.
Beijing first began leveraging studies and statements made by scientists to advance its claim that the coronavirus may have originated outside China in late February. The first study that offered ammunition for the effort was published on Feb. 20 under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Institute for Brain Research. It concluded that the Wuhan seafood market—as opposed to China at large—might not have been the source of the virus. One week later, the official People’s Daily was the first to leap from doubting the Wuhan market as the place of origin to doubting China as the country of origin.
“Zhong Sheng,” a homophonous byline meaning “Voice of China” (or perhaps more aptly China’s alarm bell) whose bellicose commentaries are collectively written by the paper’s international department in representation of the People’s Daily on foreign affairs, wrote on Feb. 28 that determining a disease’s origins is “difficult” and that the coronavirus “did not necessarily originate in China.” On the same day, a CGTN reporter seemingly fished for further talking points at a press conference for the World Health Organization (WHO) by asking about the possibility the virus came from outside China. This solicited a reply from Michael Ryan, the executive director for WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, that “disease can emerge anywhere. Coronaviruses are a global phenomenon.” While the doctor’s statement referenced diseases at large, the quote would not only be referenced by Zhong Sheng on March 20 but also framed to support the narrative that the coronavirus could have emerged anywhere.
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
From March 4 to 9, the MFA opened a second authoritative channel to disentangle China from the growing global catastrophe when its MFA spokespeople in press conferences and on individual (but Beijing-controlled) Twitter accounts claimed that the current coronavirus outbreak’s origins were yet to be determined.
It was at this time that U.S. officials began to hit back. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the coronavirus the “Wuhan virus” and stated in an interview that “no less authority than the Chinese Communist Party said it came from Wuhan.” U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien was blunter, pointing out that “rather than using best practices, this outbreak in Wuhan was covered up.” U.S. President Donald Trump stated in a nationally televised address that the outbreak “started in China and is now spreading throughout the world.”
By March 11, the CCP found its full footing, and the official propaganda line on the coronavirus’s origins crystallized when MFA spokesman Geng Shuang remarked in a regular press conference: “Regarding the question of the origins of the virus, this is a scientific question that requires listening to scientific and expert opinions.” It would be repeated over the coming weeks nearly verbatim. To outsiders, it might have read merely as questioning the wet market story, but it was a clear signal to start obscuring the national origins of the virus.
By March 12, Beijing launched its most bombastic tactic yet: blaming the United States directly for the coronavirus outbreak. To be sure, conspiracies of U.S. plans to undermine China are a regular feature of the Chinese internet. But this time the MFA itself was the source. Zhao unleashed a tweet storm accusing the U.S. Army of bringing the virus to Wuhan in October.
Perhaps due to the U.S. State Department’s summoning of Cui to warn China against pushing the U.S. origins conspiracy further, MFA spokespeople dropped their conspiracy theories for a week. But by March 20, the MFA was at it again, this time sowing new confusion by intertwining different, if related, U.S.-China disputes. That day, both Zhong Sheng and Geng repeated the official line that “the origins of the virus are a scientific question that requires listening to scientific and expert opinions.” Yet Geng went further, adding the new wrinkle that the United States is expelling Chinese journalists to “hinder the outside world from getting information on the United States’ epidemic situation.” Zhao and Hua built on this canard on Twitter the same day.
As the MFA continued to push the so-called scientific nature of the outbreak’s origins question, on March 22 party-state media launched another convenient explanation for the coronavirus: Maybe it originated in Italy! This is important because it reveals Beijing is content to shift blame away from China to anywhere in the world, not just the United States.
And yes, on March 17, Cui politely suggested: “Why not let our scientists do their own professional job and give us some answer, eventually?” Cui also stated: “You could try to interpret somebody else’s statement. I’m not in the position, and I don’t have the responsibility to explain everybody’s view to you.” This was a sidestep of the above conspiracies, not a refutation.
In conclusion, when viewing Cui’s remarks in context with the rest of Beijing’s authoritative output on the question of the coronavirus’s origins, it becomes clear that his statements complement those of Zhao and Hua—rather than contradict them. The CCP does not actually hope to convince the world that the virus may have started in the United States—or Italy, for that matter. But it absolutely does feel the need to blunt and undercut Washington’s efforts to point out China’s early role in letting the coronavirus get out of hand, a devastating reality for Beijing’s efforts to portray itself internationally as a responsible global power and potentially damaging domestically too if this international consensus is allowed to seep back into mainland China. This is precisely why none other than Politburo member Yang Jiechi issued a rare and authoritative threat of a political “counterattack” against the United States during a phone call to Pompeo on March 16, implying that if Washington continues its assault on Beijing over the virus, China will fight back.
By allowing Zhao and Hua to muddy the debate over the origins of the coronavirus, the Chinese leadership hopes the discourse’s center of gravity can be pulled away from blaming Beijing for the current global catastrophe to what appears to be a middle ground: Let the scientists worry about the virus’s currently indeterminate origins. As Zhao and Hua play bad cop, Cui—the top representative of Beijing in Washington—understandably plays good cop. In the end, Cui, the MFA spokespeople, and the People’s Daily have all been consistent in pushing a single goal: obfuscation.
To be sure, Beijing may well decide this messaging is counterproductive and cool it down. But for now bellicose conspiracies and smooth-talking diplomats all are working under the same orders: redirect blame away from the CCP for the greatest global health catastrophe of our time.