foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--Why Is Trump Threatening America’s Defense Budget?

Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump is sticking to his habit of blowing up careful policy negotiations even in the waning days of his administration—this time over recent labels on Twitter and other platforms flagging his claims of election fraud as unproven .
In a Tuesday night missive delivered via Twitter itself , the lame duck U.S. president threatened to veto the Department of Defense ’ s massive annual $ 740 billion defense authorization bill if it doesn ’ t include a repeal of a decades-old law protecting social media companies from legal liability over how they enforce perceived content violations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is a liability shielding gift from the U.S. to ‘ Big Tech ’ ( the only companies in America that have it – corporate welfare ! )
, is a serious threat to our National Security & Election Integrity , ” Trump tweeted on Tuesday evening , as negotiations between the Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-controlled Senate reached a critical stage .
“ Our Country can never be safe & secure if we allow it to stand.
” Both chambers of Congress appear eager to move forward with the bill despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s second warning that he could nix the bill after he tangled with Congress and members of his own administration , including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper , over language that would rename U.S. military installations named after Confederate generals , which is set to be included in the final bill .
But tech experts worry that changes to the law could forever change the direction of free speech on the internet .
Wait , so why the big fuss over this now ?
If you ask White House press secretary Kayleigh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at a press conference today , Trump ’ s concerns about Section 230 stem from fears that Twitter and other social media platforms are saturated with Chinese disinformation and internet “ vitriol ” —even though the U.S. president himself has been repeatedly flagged for tweets blasting out untrue or false statements since the November election .
But Trump has been trying to make significant changes to Section 230 for more than a year , when the White House issued an executive order that would have taken away the law ’ s protections for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ content posted on their platforms—giving the Federal Communications Commission wider leeway to punish companies that remove or censor content .
Conservatives have increasingly complained about being banned on social media , despite progressive complaints that policies at Facebook and other giants privilege right-wing groups .
The issue came to a head late in the election season after social media sites moved to stop circulating a controversial New York Post story that claimed that then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had used his role as vice president to enrich his son Hunter , based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provided by Trump ’ s personal attorney , Rudy Giuliani .
That led to a Justice Department letter to Congress advocating for sweeping legislative reforms .
What does Congress think ?
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle want changes to the nearly 25-year-old law , which predates the founding of Facebook and Twitter by almost a full decade , but the timing and the politics of Trump ’ s request are tricky .
Congress is moving forward with a final version of the National Defense Authorization Act , also known as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 740 billion bill , that does not include a repeal of Section 230 , according to Politico .
The Senate Judiciary Committee , led by another close Trump confidant , Lindsey Graham , is taking up legislation that would also reform the law .
But it ’ s not just Republicans who have called for changes to Section 230 : In January , Biden—now the president-elect—called for the law to be immediately revoked over fears that Facebook was allowing users to peddle falsehoods on the platform with no repercussions .
Democratic Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to strengthen data privacy laws and signed on to legislation championed by Graham to force tech companies to “ earn ” legal liability protections under Section 230 in cases pertaining to child sexual abuse .
Free speech and open internet advocates are highly opposed to any change .
The Electronic Frontier Foundation , a digital rights group , has called Section 230 “ the most important law protecting internet speech ” and insists that without the measure , companies like YouTube , Facebook , and Twitter would not be likely to host user-created @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their platforms , undermining online creativity and innovation .
The American Civil Liberties Union agrees , describing it as the reason “ why websites can offer platforms for critical and controversial speech without constantly worrying about getting sued.
” Will Trump go through with the veto threat ?
It ’ s not clear—since the U.S. president appears to have cooled off on a threat to nix the defense bill over the provision renaming bases honoring Confederates .
It would also be a historic and unprecedented move : The NDAA has passed Congress for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caps for military spending put in place during the Obama administration .
“ As is the case every year , this agreement is the product of months of hard-fought negotiations , ” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith , a Democrat , and the committee ’ s ranking member Mac Thornberry , a Republican , said in a joint statement on Wednesday .
“ This year we have toiled through almost 2,200 provisions to reach compromise on important issues affecting our national security and our military.
” But if Trump—ever the precedent-breaker—sticks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leave Congress in a major bind , jeopardizing months of fraught negotiations to fund the Pentagon .
Though it could leave Trump allies in both chambers scrambling , major power brokers want to see the negotiations put to bed .
Most Senate Republicans , including Trump ally and Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe , have shown a desire to address the social media provision in separate legislation , a message that some lawmakers have conveyed personally to the president .
Lawmakers are also keen to wrap up appropriations and authorization bills ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidential vetoes have been overridden by Congress over the past three administrations , and none of those have occurred under Trump .
But judging by the voting records on the NDAA this year , Trump may have a tough time convincing lawmakers to put their thumbs down on the bill , which would need a two-thirds majority in both chambers to overcome a veto .
This summer , the House passed its version of the NDAA by a 295-125 margin , and the Senate cleared its version with an 86-14 vote , each @ @ @ @ @

Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump is sticking to his habit of blowing up careful policy negotiations even in the waning days of his administration—this time over recent labels on Twitter and other platforms flagging his claims of election fraud as unproven. In a Tuesday night missive delivered via Twitter itself, the lame duck U.S. president threatened to veto the Department of Defense’s massive annual $740 billion defense authorization bill if it doesn’t include a repeal of a decades-old law protecting social media companies from legal liability over how they enforce perceived content violations on their platforms.
Outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump is sticking to his habit of blowing up careful policy negotiations even in the waning days of his administration—this time over recent labels on Twitter and other platforms flagging his claims of election fraud as unproven. In a Tuesday night missive delivered via Twitter itself, the lame duck U.S. president threatened to veto the Department of Defense’s massive annual $740 billion defense authorization bill if it doesn’t include a repeal of a decades-old law protecting social media companies from legal liability over how they enforce perceived content violations on their platforms.
“Section 230, which is a liability shielding gift from the U.S. to ‘Big Tech’ (the only companies in America that have it – corporate welfare!), is a serious threat to our National Security & Election Integrity,” Trump tweeted on Tuesday evening, as negotiations between the Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-controlled Senate reached a critical stage. “Our Country can never be safe & secure if we allow it to stand.”
Both chambers of Congress appear eager to move forward with the bill despite the veto threat, which was Trump’s second warning that he could nix the bill after he tangled with Congress and members of his own administration, including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, over language that would rename U.S. military installations named after Confederate generals, which is set to be included in the final bill. But tech experts worry that changes to the law could forever change the direction of free speech on the internet.
Wait, so why the big fuss over this now?
If you ask White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, who spoke about the issue at a press conference today, Trump’s concerns about Section 230 stem from fears that Twitter and other social media platforms are saturated with Chinese disinformation and internet “vitriol”—even though the U.S. president himself has been repeatedly flagged for tweets blasting out untrue or false statements since the November election.
But Trump has been trying to make significant changes to Section 230 for more than a year, when the White House issued an executive order that would have taken away the law’s protections for platforms—which are not legally liable for third-party content posted on their platforms—giving the Federal Communications Commission wider leeway to punish companies that remove or censor content. Conservatives have increasingly complained about being banned on social media, despite progressive complaints that policies at Facebook and other giants privilege right-wing groups.
The issue came to a head late in the election season after social media sites moved to stop circulating a controversial New York Post story that claimed that then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had used his role as vice president to enrich his son Hunter, based on purported communications from a laptop hard drive provided by Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani. That led to a Justice Department letter to Congress advocating for sweeping legislative reforms.
What does Congress think?
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle want changes to the nearly 25-year-old law, which predates the founding of Facebook and Twitter by almost a full decade, but the timing and the politics of Trump’s request are tricky. Congress is moving forward with a final version of the National Defense Authorization Act, also known as the NDAA, the Pentagon’s aforementioned $740 billion bill, that does not include a repeal of Section 230, according to Politico. The Senate Judiciary Committee, led by another close Trump confidant, Lindsey Graham, is taking up legislation that would also reform the law.
But it’s not just Republicans who have called for changes to Section 230: In January, Biden—now the president-elect—called for the law to be immediately revoked over fears that Facebook was allowing users to peddle falsehoods on the platform with no repercussions. Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal has also led a push to strengthen data privacy laws and signed on to legislation championed by Graham to force tech companies to “earn” legal liability protections under Section 230 in cases pertaining to child sexual abuse.
Free speech and open internet advocates are highly opposed to any change. The Electronic Frontier Foundation, a digital rights group, has called Section 230 “the most important law protecting internet speech” and insists that without the measure, companies like YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter would not be likely to host user-created content and would have to constantly censor their platforms, undermining online creativity and innovation. The American Civil Liberties Union agrees, describing it as the reason “why websites can offer platforms for critical and controversial speech without constantly worrying about getting sued.”
Will Trump go through with the veto threat?
It’s not clear—since the U.S. president appears to have cooled off on a threat to nix the defense bill over the provision renaming bases honoring Confederates. It would also be a historic and unprecedented move: The NDAA has passed Congress for 59 straight years, even amid budget caps for military spending put in place during the Obama administration. “As is the case every year, this agreement is the product of months of hard-fought negotiations,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, a Democrat, and the committee’s ranking member Mac Thornberry, a Republican, said in a joint statement on Wednesday. “This year we have toiled through almost 2,200 provisions to reach compromise on important issues affecting our national security and our military.”
But if Trump—ever the precedent-breaker—sticks to the veto threat, it could leave Congress in a major bind, jeopardizing months of fraught negotiations to fund the Pentagon. Though it could leave Trump allies in both chambers scrambling, major power brokers want to see the negotiations put to bed. Most Senate Republicans, including Trump ally and Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe, have shown a desire to address the social media provision in separate legislation, a message that some lawmakers have conveyed personally to the president. Lawmakers are also keen to wrap up appropriations and authorization bills ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Only five presidential vetoes have been overridden by Congress over the past three administrations, and none of those have occurred under Trump. But judging by the voting records on the NDAA this year, Trump may have a tough time convincing lawmakers to put their thumbs down on the bill, which would need a two-thirds majority in both chambers to overcome a veto. This summer, the House passed its version of the NDAA by a 295-125 margin, and the Senate cleared its version with an 86-14 vote, each comfortably above veto range.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--Afghans, Under Fire for Corruption, Accuse Donors of Hypocrisy

Afghans , Under Fire for Corruption , Accuse Donors of Hypocrisy Countries that donate billions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan often complain about widespread corruption that impedes development .
But some Afghans have been pushing back lately , pointing a finger at a particular NATO official in Kabul whose former company has drawn fire for alleged mismanagement and graft .
The firm , Aktis Strategy , was founded and run by two former British diplomats , and it oversaw development projects in Iraq , Turkey , Tunisia , Somalia , and elsewhere .
But when it suddenly ran out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left contractors and staffers stiffed and stranded , with angry creditors demanding payment that never arrived , according to former Aktis subcontractors and an investigation conducted last year by Britain ’ s Daily Mail .
Now , one of the company ’ s directors , Andrew Rathmell , is back in the development business , working as the head of the Office of the NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Kabul , according to two sources who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity .
And that has angered many Afghans who accuse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid funding to Afghanistan over corruption even as it tolerates graft in its own ranks .
When NATO ’ s official account in Afghanistan tweeted a demand last month that corruption “ be stamped out , ” it drew a blistering response from an official in Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh ’ s office .
“ And what about corrupt people working with the @ NATO in Kabul ?
?
?
” tweeted Ejaz Malikzada .
“ Who is Rathmell connected to that is so powerful that nobody talks against ?
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ streets of Kabul , where one businessman struggling to keep his company afloat told Foreign Policy : “ It ’ s the height of hypocrisy .
The internationals are telling us to clean up our act , and reducing the aid we need to survive , and yet they are guilty of the very corruption they accuse us of .
How dare they.
” Rathmell and another former British diplomat , Alex Martin , set up Aktis in 2013 and quickly began winning security and development contracts in the developing world as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fast : By 2018 , it had 150 staff and turnover of about 24 million pounds a year , equivalent to around $ 32 million at that time , according to Devex , a development sector recruiting and media platform , with most of that coming from the British government .
Rathmell ’ s company used its status as a “ prime ” —a company approved as a recipient of funds from government departments and agencies like the United Nations—to win development contracts .
It then employed other firms and contractors to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of the pot , but not before paying itself a substantial management fee .
By March 2019 , Aktis was out of money , despite having landed millions of dollars in government contracts .
“ Dozens of staff , and a number of Aktis ’ subcontractors , are understood to be owed several months of back pay , expenses , and pension contributions , ” Devex reported .
It cited an email from Rathmell in which he “ blamed Aktis ’ demise on poor financial management which left the company unable to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of low-margin projects in fragile and conflict-affected countries.
” But former contractors said the management problems came from the top .
“ The directors paid themselves very well .
Rathmell was the director ; it was his financial mismanagement ” that led to the company ’ s demise , said one British contractor , who is owed money by Aktis .
He and other sources for this story spoke to Foreign Policy on condition they remain unnamed , to avoid drawing attention to their past association with the company .
He ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contractors and staffers with financial grievances .
The contractor said he managed oversight for Aktis on a counterterrorism project funded by the European Commission from 2016 to 2020 .
He said he was owed 15,000 pounds ( $ 20,000 ) when Aktis stopped paying salaries and expenses in 2018 , leaving contractors scrambling to cover their own costs .
“ The problem was that the Commission had paid the British government , which had paid Aktis , so no one could understand why there was no money for contractors ’ costs , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very damaging to Britain ’ s reputation.
” The British government is considering establishing an in-house consultancy to manage aid projects , cutting out consultancies like Aktis to reduce waste and corruption , according to British media reports .
When the company went bust , some contractors working on projects in far-flung places were forced to fund their own trip home , the former contractors told Foreign Policy .
In Iraq , Aktis stopped paying for onsite security , endangering the lives of people on the project , one source who is part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Somaliland , workers on a project to develop the judiciary received death threats from Aktis creditors , according to the manager of a company subcontracted by Aktis on the project .
He said his company paid the money to cover Aktis ’ s debts and get contractors home .
“ Somebody had to , it was the right thing to do , ” he told Foreign Policy .
Rathmell did not respond to multiple requests for comment or an interview .
According to a description of his job , posted by NATO , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month and runs a staff of seven .
A NATO official , asked for a comment , said : “ We don ’ t comment on personnel issues.
” The Daily Mail story about Rathmell ’ s misdoings , which was written last year , has circulated widely on Afghan social media in recent weeks .
The way big development projects are funded—with the “ prime ” taking a cut , then doling out bits and pieces to contractors of its own—often means that a significant proportion never makes it to projects .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but some companies go much higher .
The Special Investigator General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said in an October report that a review of $ 63 billion in U.S. aid to the country had “ concluded that a total of approximately $ 19 billion or 30 percent of the amount reviewed was lost to waste , fraud , and abuse.
” Officials in Afghanistan and other countries say the development system fuels corruption and poverty , and Kabul has long complained that billions of dollars in international development donations are administered by donor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no accountability to Afghan authorities .
Due in large part to international concern with corruption and graft , international donors cut their four-year funding from $ 15 billion to $ 12 billion at a conference in Geneva last week .
For years , Kabul has asked that international funding be placed on the government ’ s budget so that spending can be better coordinated and tracked , according to a senior government advisor .
“ Accountability has to be mutual , ” he said , speaking on condition of anonymity .

Countries that donate billions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan often complain about widespread corruption that impedes development. But some Afghans have been pushing back lately, pointing a finger at a particular NATO official in Kabul whose former company has drawn fire for alleged mismanagement and graft.
Countries that donate billions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan often complain about widespread corruption that impedes development. But some Afghans have been pushing back lately, pointing a finger at a particular NATO official in Kabul whose former company has drawn fire for alleged mismanagement and graft.
The firm, Aktis Strategy, was founded and run by two former British diplomats, and it oversaw development projects in Iraq, Turkey, Tunisia, Somalia, and elsewhere. But when it suddenly ran out of cash in early 2019, it left contractors and staffers stiffed and stranded, with angry creditors demanding payment that never arrived, according to former Aktis subcontractors and an investigation conducted last year by Britain’s Daily Mail.
Now, one of the company’s directors, Andrew Rathmell, is back in the development business, working as the head of the Office of the NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Kabul, according to two sources who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity. And that has angered many Afghans who accuse the international community of hypocrisy for slashing aid funding to Afghanistan over corruption even as it tolerates graft in its own ranks.
When NATO’s official account in Afghanistan tweeted a demand last month that corruption “be stamped out,” it drew a blistering response from an official in Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh’s office.
“And what about corrupt people working with the @NATO in Kabul???” tweeted Ejaz Malikzada. “Who is Rathmell connected to that is so powerful that nobody talks against?”
The anger appeared to be echoed on the streets of Kabul, where one businessman struggling to keep his company afloat told Foreign Policy: “It’s the height of hypocrisy. The internationals are telling us to clean up our act, and reducing the aid we need to survive, and yet they are guilty of the very corruption they accuse us of. How dare they.”
Rathmell and another former British diplomat, Alex Martin, set up Aktis in 2013 and quickly began winning security and development contracts in the developing world as well as in Europe. The company grew fast: By 2018, it had 150 staff and turnover of about 24 million pounds a year, equivalent to around $32 million at that time, according to Devex, a development sector recruiting and media platform, with most of that coming from the British government.
Rathmell’s company used its status as a “prime”—a company approved as a recipient of funds from government departments and agencies like the United Nations—to win development contracts. It then employed other firms and contractors to do the work, paying salaries and expenses out of the pot, but not before paying itself a substantial management fee.
By March 2019, Aktis was out of money, despite having landed millions of dollars in government contracts. “Dozens of staff, and a number of Aktis’ subcontractors, are understood to be owed several months of back pay, expenses, and pension contributions,” Devex reported. It cited an email from Rathmell in which he “blamed Aktis’ demise on poor financial management which left the company unable to manage its rapid scale-up and growing portfolio of low-margin projects in fragile and conflict-affected countries.”
But former contractors said the management problems came from the top.
“The directors paid themselves very well. Rathmell was the director; it was his financial mismanagement” that led to the company’s demise, said one British contractor, who is owed money by Aktis. He and other sources for this story spoke to Foreign Policy on condition they remain unnamed, to avoid drawing attention to their past association with the company. He’s part of a WhatsApp group of former contractors and staffers with financial grievances.
The contractor said he managed oversight for Aktis on a counterterrorism project funded by the European Commission from 2016 to 2020. He said he was owed 15,000 pounds ($20,000) when Aktis stopped paying salaries and expenses in 2018, leaving contractors scrambling to cover their own costs.
“The problem was that the Commission had paid the British government, which had paid Aktis, so no one could understand why there was no money for contractors’ costs,” the contractor said. “It was very damaging to Britain’s reputation.” The British government is considering establishing an in-house consultancy to manage aid projects, cutting out consultancies like Aktis to reduce waste and corruption, according to British media reports.
When the company went bust, some contractors working on projects in far-flung places were forced to fund their own trip home, the former contractors told Foreign Policy. In Iraq, Aktis stopped paying for onsite security, endangering the lives of people on the project, one source who is part of the WhatsApp group said. In Somaliland, workers on a project to develop the judiciary received death threats from Aktis creditors, according to the manager of a company subcontracted by Aktis on the project.
He said his company paid the money to cover Aktis’s debts and get contractors home. “Somebody had to, it was the right thing to do,” he told Foreign Policy.
Rathmell did not respond to multiple requests for comment or an interview. According to a description of his job, posted by NATO, Rathmell earns more than $10,000 a month and runs a staff of seven.
A NATO official, asked for a comment, said: “We don’t comment on personnel issues.”
The Daily Mail story about Rathmell’s misdoings, which was written last year, has circulated widely on Afghan social media in recent weeks.
The way big development projects are funded—with the “prime” taking a cut, then doling out bits and pieces to contractors of its own—often means that a significant proportion never makes it to projects.
A 10 percent cut is not unusual, but some companies go much higher. The Special Investigator General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said in an October report that a review of $63 billion in U.S. aid to the country had “concluded that a total of approximately $19 billion or 30 percent of the amount reviewed was lost to waste, fraud, and abuse.”
Officials in Afghanistan and other countries say the development system fuels corruption and poverty, and Kabul has long complained that billions of dollars in international development donations are administered by donor governments and agencies, with little or no accountability to Afghan authorities. Due in large part to international concern with corruption and graft, international donors cut their four-year funding from $15 billion to $12 billion at a conference in Geneva last week.
For years, Kabul has asked that international funding be placed on the government’s budget so that spending can be better coordinated and tracked, according to a senior government advisor.
“Accountability has to be mutual,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--Election Déjà Vu for Israelis

Election Déjà Vu for Israelis

TEL AVIV , Israel—Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday took a large step toward calling another national election , which would be the fourth in the past two years , by giving preliminary approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament .
Defense Minister Benny Gantz ’ s Blue and White party joined with the opposition , a milestone in the steady unraveling of the coalition government formed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just seven months ago .
If the bill , put forward by parliamentary opposition leader Yair Lapid , is passed into law , it would exacerbate Israel ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fact that Netanyahu faces multiple corruption indictments and seems bent on evading trial .
It would also compound the public health problems in Israel , which is on the cusp of a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and still has some virus-related restrictions in place from a lockdown started in September .
“ We can now assert that Israel ’ s two-year political crisis is expected to continue , ” said Yohanan Plesner , the president of the Israel Democracy Institute , speaking to journalists .
Gantz explained his decision to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that even though he knew Netanyahu to be a “ serial promise-breaker ” when he first joined the government , he had hoped the prime minister would turn over a new leaf given the pandemic crisis .
“ That didn ’ t happen—Netanyahu is on a trail of personal survival from his trial , ” Gantz said .
After Israel ’ s most recent election in March , Gantz shocked his supporters by concluding a coalition agreement with Netanyahu that involved a rotating premiership .
Gantz was supposed to get his turn as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but Netanyahu has signaled with his political maneuverings in recent months that he does not intend to give up power .
After the vote , Netanyahu urged Gantz to reconsider , arguing that a new campaign is not in the national interest .
“ I ’ ve said for a long time , this is not the time for elections .
It ’ s time for unity , ” Netanyahu said in a video on his Twitter account .
To help readers make sense of the confusing state of Israeli politics , Foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unfolding .
Not yet .
The bill to dissolve parliament is now referred to a parliamentary committee controlled by Gantz ’ s party .
Once it gets back to the plenum , the bill must pass three more votes before it becomes law , at which point lawmakers will set a date for a new election and the government will become a caretaker administration .
That gives Netanyahu and Gantz a few weeks to mend fences , preserve the unity government , and put off elections .
There is , however , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parliament must pass a national budget by Dec. 23 , or the government automatically collapses and elections are held after 90 days .
Why would Gantz want to dissolve the government before getting his turn as prime minister ?
It ’ s true that Gantz ’ s main political interest has been preserving the coalition until late 2021 , when it ’ s his turn to lead the government .
But he has concluded that Netanyahu has no plan to honor the rotation agreement .
What ’ s more , the political marriage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Likud party has been rocky from the start .
The coalition partners have clashed on issues ranging from how to handle the pandemic to Netanyahu ’ s push to annex swaths of the West Bank .
“ The reason why he went in the government was to stabilize things : to deal with COVID , to deal with the economy , and to protect the rule of law , ” said Jonathan Rynhold , a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University .
“ Gantz is thinking , ‘ If he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me , if he ’ s not prepared to pass a budget to stabilize the country , if all of this is to keep him out of prison , ’ he ’ s thinking that ‘ I got nothing to lose here.
’ ” Where does Netanyahu ’ s corruption case figure in all this ?
Most observers believe that Netanyahu ’ s maneuvers are motivated by his desire to evade his trial and possible jail time .
The prime minister faces charges of bribery , fraud , and breach of the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The proceedings began over the summer with one preliminary hearing , but state prosecutors and the prime minister ’ s team are scheduled to start calling witnesses in February 2021 .
On Monday , Netanyahu ’ s legal team called on the court to dismiss the charges , alleging criminal misconduct by police officers conducting the investigation .
If that gambit fails—which is likely—and there ’ s an election early in 2021 , Netanyahu could try again to delay the proceedings , citing the vote as his reasoning , according to Plesner , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Netanyahu does win another election , many observers believe that he ’ ll try to push again for a law to grant him immunity from prosecution .
Most of the political system believes that Netanyahu would be the favorite to form the next government .
Opinion polls suggest that his Likud party would finish first in the upcoming elections , albeit with fewer seats than in the current parliament .
Gantz ’ s center-left alliance has fractured since the last election , and his poll numbers have dropped precipitously .
That said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the hands of a longtime rival .
Polls suggest that Naftali Bennett , the leader of the far-right Yamina party , would finish a strong second , with Lapid a close third .
That might give them enough seats between them to cobble together a parliamentary majority without Likud .
Netanyahu has been exploiting his political power to head off corruption charges for years now .
The abuse has taken a public toll .
Already , Israelis went to the polls three times in less than a year ’ s span .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ erode public confidence in the democratic system .
Though a plurality of voters continue to see Netanyahu as the most qualified candidate , his governing has been held back by the legal and political ordeals .
Until earlier this year , Netanyahu led a caretaker government for some 18 months—with a limited mandate to make high-level government appointments .
The last time the parliament passed a budget was in early 2018 .
The price of a fourth election since the start of 2019 is likely a lower voter turnout , as the public @ @ @ @ @

TEL AVIV, Israel—Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday took a large step toward calling another national election, which would be the fourth in the past two years, by giving preliminary approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament. Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party joined with the opposition, a milestone in the steady unraveling of the coalition government formed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just seven months ago.
TEL AVIV, Israel—Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday took a large step toward calling another national election, which would be the fourth in the past two years, by giving preliminary approval to a bill to dissolve the parliament. Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party joined with the opposition, a milestone in the steady unraveling of the coalition government formed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just seven months ago.
If the bill, put forward by parliamentary opposition leader Yair Lapid, is passed into law, it would exacerbate Israel’s long-standing political instability, spurred largely by the fact that Netanyahu faces multiple corruption indictments and seems bent on evading trial.
It would also compound the public health problems in Israel, which is on the cusp of a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and still has some virus-related restrictions in place from a lockdown started in September.
“We can now assert that Israel’s two-year political crisis is expected to continue,” said Yohanan Plesner, the president of the Israel Democracy Institute, speaking to journalists.
Gantz explained his decision to support the bill Tuesday night, saying that even though he knew Netanyahu to be a “serial promise-breaker” when he first joined the government, he had hoped the prime minister would turn over a new leaf given the pandemic crisis. “That didn’t happen—Netanyahu is on a trail of personal survival from his trial,” Gantz said.
After Israel’s most recent election in March, Gantz shocked his supporters by concluding a coalition agreement with Netanyahu that involved a rotating premiership. Gantz was supposed to get his turn as prime minister in another 11 months, but Netanyahu has signaled with his political maneuverings in recent months that he does not intend to give up power.
After the vote, Netanyahu urged Gantz to reconsider, arguing that a new campaign is not in the national interest. “I’ve said for a long time, this is not the time for elections. It’s time for unity,” Netanyahu said in a video on his Twitter account.
To help readers make sense of the confusing state of Israeli politics, Foreign Policy answers five questions about this latest unfolding.
Did the government collapse?
Not yet. The bill to dissolve parliament is now referred to a parliamentary committee controlled by Gantz’s party. Once it gets back to the plenum, the bill must pass three more votes before it becomes law, at which point lawmakers will set a date for a new election and the government will become a caretaker administration.
That gives Netanyahu and Gantz a few weeks to mend fences, preserve the unity government, and put off elections. There is, however, a deadline for the political maneuvering: The parliament must pass a national budget by Dec. 23, or the government automatically collapses and elections are held after 90 days.
Why would Gantz want to dissolve the government before getting his turn as prime minister?
It’s true that Gantz’s main political interest has been preserving the coalition until late 2021, when it’s his turn to lead the government. But he has concluded that Netanyahu has no plan to honor the rotation agreement.
What’s more, the political marriage between Blue and White and Netanyahu’s Likud party has been rocky from the start. The coalition partners have clashed on issues ranging from how to handle the pandemic to Netanyahu’s push to annex swaths of the West Bank.
“The reason why he went in the government was to stabilize things: to deal with COVID, to deal with the economy, and to protect the rule of law,” said Jonathan Rynhold, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University. “Gantz is thinking, ‘If he’s not going to hand it over to me, if he’s not prepared to pass a budget to stabilize the country, if all of this is to keep him out of prison,’ he’s thinking that ‘I got nothing to lose here.’”
Where does Netanyahu’s corruption case figure in all this?
Most observers believe that Netanyahu’s maneuvers are motivated by his desire to evade his trial and possible jail time. The prime minister faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of the public trust in several cases tried concurrently. The proceedings began over the summer with one preliminary hearing, but state prosecutors and the prime minister’s team are scheduled to start calling witnesses in February 2021.
On Monday, Netanyahu’s legal team called on the court to dismiss the charges, alleging criminal misconduct by police officers conducting the investigation. If that gambit fails—which is likely—and there’s an election early in 2021, Netanyahu could try again to delay the proceedings, citing the vote as his reasoning, according to Plesner, of the Israel Democracy Institute.
If Netanyahu does win another election, many observers believe that he’ll try to push again for a law to grant him immunity from prosecution.
Will Netanyahu ever leave office?
Most of the political system believes that Netanyahu would be the favorite to form the next government. Opinion polls suggest that his Likud party would finish first in the upcoming elections, albeit with fewer seats than in the current parliament. Gantz’s center-left alliance has fractured since the last election, and his poll numbers have dropped precipitously.
That said, Netanyahu’s fate might be left in the hands of a longtime rival. Polls suggest that Naftali Bennett, the leader of the far-right Yamina party, would finish a strong second, with Lapid a close third. That might give them enough seats between them to cobble together a parliamentary majority without Likud.
Is Israel’s democracy broken?
Netanyahu has been exploiting his political power to head off corruption charges for years now. The abuse has taken a public toll. Already, Israelis went to the polls three times in less than a year’s span. A fourth election is likely to further erode public confidence in the democratic system.
Though a plurality of voters continue to see Netanyahu as the most qualified candidate, his governing has been held back by the legal and political ordeals. Until earlier this year, Netanyahu led a caretaker government for some 18 months—with a limited mandate to make high-level government appointments. The last time the parliament passed a budget was in early 2018.
The price of a fourth election since the start of 2019 is likely a lower voter turnout, as the public tires of the campaigns.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--Honduras and Nicaragua Have Been Hit By Some of the Worst Natural Disasters in Decades

Honduras and Nicaragua Have Been Hit By Some of the Worst Natural Disasters in Decades In 1998 , Hurricane Mitch ravaged Central America , killing more than 11,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damage in one of the worst natural disasters in Atlantic history .
Amid the devastation , Honduran President Carlos Flores Facussé issued a stark warning .
Without foreign assistance , he said , migrants would go “ walking , swimming and running up north.
” In short order , U.S. President Bill Clinton took to the radio to promise that the United States would “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Central America , ” who he called “ our fellow Americans.
” The international community likewise responded with billions of dollars in assistance for the region .
This November , two major hurricanes again hit the region in the span of about two weeks .
It was one of Central America ’ s worst natural disasters since Hurricane Mitch , affecting roughly 7.2 million , including hundreds of thousands who lost everything when their homes were damaged or destroyed .
Yet outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump has neither expressed any kind of solidarity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nor mobilized the support of the international community .
“ If the U.S. does not lead in this effort to provide support , I think we will see the impact of that inaction and we will see it at our southern border , ” California Democratic Rep. Norma Torres , who is one of the leading voices in Congress on issues regarding Central America , said in a November interview .
Even before the hurricanes , experts were predicting a future uptick in migration from Central America due to widespread job loss during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of thousands more expected to lose their jobs , and so many having lost everything they own , the economic pressure that has been the primary force driving migration from the region in recent years could become stronger than ever .
President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to make Central America a priority , and has expressed his concern for the region following the hurricanes .
On the campaign trail , he even presented an ambitious development aid plan for Central America that includes a billion dollars in funding over four years .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the highly partisan environment in Washington make it unlikely that the region will receive the level of aid it needs to rebuild .
“ The world is a very different place right now than it was in 1998 , ” Tiziano Breda , a Central America analyst for the International Crisis Group , said in November .
“ Amid this worldwide economic downturn , donor countries are facing difficulties to find the money to cope with internal struggles.
” If a pandemic and partisanship weren ’ t enough , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hit by hurricanes Eta and Ioata , Juan Orlando Hernández of Honduras and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua , are among the region ’ s most controversial and scandal-plagued .
Last year , a brother of Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court .
The president himself was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the case , whom prosecutors accused of receiving millions in bribes from drug traffickers .
At home , Hernández and members of the party he represents have been embroiled in near-constant corruption scandals , including recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ortega , for his part , became an international pariah after hundreds of protesters were murdered in 2018 by police and other forces loyal to his authoritarian regime .
And the U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned multiple high-level Nicaraguan officials , as well as several members of Ortega ’ s own family , for corruption and ties to drug trafficking .
Biden ’ s plan for Central America contains a strong focus on anticorruption initiatives , which under the Trump administration ’ s watch suffered major setbacks , including most notably the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which saw their mandates expire after support for a renewal from the United States , the primary funder of the commissions , evaporated .
Aid .
then , would have to be “ carefully calibrated to ensure that it meets emergency needs and does not line the pockets of unscrupulous bureaucrats and those who are politically and economically powerful and privileged , ” Eric Olson , director of policy for the Seattle International Foundation , noted last month .
One way to do that , interviewed officials and analysts suggested , would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comprised of international and national experts in development and other relevant fields that would coordinate relief and reconstruction efforts as well as provide accountability .
“ Oversight , transparency , and anti-corruption mechanisms should be built in from the start , ” Adriana Beltrán , director for citizen security at the Washington Office on Latin America , wrote in an email .
The new body would also have to focus on infrastructure and housing , since many roads and bridges that were rebuilt after Hurricane Mitch were washed away , again .
Hundreds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or rendered uninhabitable due to the destruction of levees that protected them from flooding .
To be sure , such ambitious plans would require funds , something the Biden administration would have a hard time securing when he takes office in January .
He could try to offer more emergency response funding , which doesn ’ t require congressional approval and of which a bit more than $ 17 million has been allocated to date .
In the weeks following Hurricane Mitch , though , the United States allocated the equivalent of roughly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today ’ s dollars .
Spending big makes sense , both from a humanitarian perspective and in terms of immigration .
“ I was around for Mitch , ” Kurt Ver Beek , co-founder of the nonprofit A More Just Society in Honduras , said in an interview , “ and I was astounded when I went and interviewed people during and after reconstruction about the power of having a new house and how that made people want to stay.
” There ’ s tremendous power , he concluded , in giving “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hoping to get a house , a reason to stick around.
” Following Hurricane Mitch , the international community made the ambitious goal to not just rebuild the region , but to transform it for the better .
Funding poured in , supporting the reconstruction of crucial infrastructure , creating jobs , and promoting economic growth .
However , a broader transformation—including efforts to improve governance and fight corruption—never came .
Migration from the region grew in the ensuing years , boosting remittances that helped rebuild as much as any foreign aid .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid once again in the wake of Hurricanes Eta and Ioata .
This time around , it will be up to Biden to make sure the good it does lasts for the long term .

In 1998, Hurricane Mitch ravaged Central America, killing more than 11,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damage in one of the worst natural disasters in Atlantic history. Amid the devastation, Honduran President Carlos Flores Facussé issued a stark warning. Without foreign assistance, he said, migrants would go “walking, swimming and running up north.” In short order, U.S. President Bill Clinton took to the radio to promise that the United States would “spare no aid to the people of Central America,” who he called “our fellow Americans.” The international community likewise responded with billions of dollars in assistance for the region.
In 1998, Hurricane Mitch ravaged Central America, killing more than 11,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damage in one of the worst natural disasters in Atlantic history. Amid the devastation, Honduran President Carlos Flores Facussé issued a stark warning. Without foreign assistance, he said, migrants would go “walking, swimming and running up north.” In short order, U.S. President Bill Clinton took to the radio to promise that the United States would “spare no aid to the people of Central America,” who he called “our fellow Americans.” The international community likewise responded with billions of dollars in assistance for the region.
This November, two major hurricanes again hit the region in the span of about two weeks. It was one of Central America’s worst natural disasters since Hurricane Mitch, affecting roughly 7.2 million, including hundreds of thousands who lost everything when their homes were damaged or destroyed. Yet outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump has neither expressed any kind of solidarity with the people of the region, nor mobilized the support of the international community.
“If the U.S. does not lead in this effort to provide support, I think we will see the impact of that inaction and we will see it at our southern border,” California Democratic Rep. Norma Torres, who is one of the leading voices in Congress on issues regarding Central America, said in a November interview. Even before the hurricanes, experts were predicting a future uptick in migration from Central America due to widespread job loss during the pandemic. Now, with hundreds of thousands more expected to lose their jobs, and so many having lost everything they own, the economic pressure that has been the primary force driving migration from the region in recent years could become stronger than ever.
President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to make Central America a priority, and has expressed his concern for the region following the hurricanes. On the campaign trail, he even presented an ambitious development aid plan for Central America that includes a billion dollars in funding over four years.
But the global economic recession caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the highly partisan environment in Washington make it unlikely that the region will receive the level of aid it needs to rebuild. “The world is a very different place right now than it was in 1998,” Tiziano Breda, a Central America analyst for the International Crisis Group, said in November. “Amid this worldwide economic downturn, donor countries are facing difficulties to find the money to cope with internal struggles.”
If a pandemic and partisanship weren’t enough, the presidents of the two countries hardest hit by hurricanes Eta and Iota, Juan Orlando Hernández of Honduras and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, are among the region’s most controversial and scandal-plagued.
Last year, a brother of Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court. The president himself was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the case, whom prosecutors accused of receiving millions in bribes from drug traffickers. At home, Hernández and members of the party he represents have been embroiled in near-constant corruption scandals, including recent allegations surrounding misuse of COVID-19 relief funds.
Ortega, for his part, became an international pariah after hundreds of protesters were murdered in 2018 by police and other forces loyal to his authoritarian regime. And the U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned multiple high-level Nicaraguan officials, as well as several members of Ortega’s own family, for corruption and ties to drug trafficking.
Biden’s plan for Central America contains a strong focus on anticorruption initiatives, which under the Trump administration’s watch suffered major setbacks, including most notably the international anti-impunity commissions in Honduras and Guatemala, which saw their mandates expire after support for a renewal from the United States, the primary funder of the commissions, evaporated. Aid. then, would have to be “carefully calibrated to ensure that it meets emergency needs and does not line the pockets of unscrupulous bureaucrats and those who are politically and economically powerful and privileged,” Eric Olson, director of policy for the Seattle International Foundation, noted last month.
One way to do that, interviewed officials and analysts suggested, would be the creation of a regional body comprised of international and national experts in development and other relevant fields that would coordinate relief and reconstruction efforts as well as provide accountability. “Oversight, transparency, and anti-corruption mechanisms should be built in from the start,” Adriana Beltrán, director for citizen security at the Washington Office on Latin America, wrote in an email. The new body would also have to focus on infrastructure and housing, since many roads and bridges that were rebuilt after Hurricane Mitch were washed away, again. Hundreds of thousands of homes have been destroyed or rendered uninhabitable due to the destruction of levees that protected them from flooding.
To be sure, such ambitious plans would require funds, something the Biden administration would have a hard time securing when he takes office in January. He could try to offer more emergency response funding, which doesn’t require congressional approval and of which a bit more than $17 million has been allocated to date. In the weeks following Hurricane Mitch, though, the United States allocated the equivalent of roughly $200 million in emergency funding in today’s dollars.
Spending big makes sense, both from a humanitarian perspective and in terms of immigration. “I was around for Mitch,” Kurt Ver Beek, co-founder of the nonprofit Association for a More Just Society in Honduras, said in an interview, “and I was astounded when I went and interviewed people during and after reconstruction about the power of having a new house and how that made people want to stay.” There’s tremendous power, he concluded, in giving “the people getting a house, or hoping to get a house, a reason to stick around.”
Following Hurricane Mitch, the international community made the ambitious goal to not just rebuild the region, but to transform it for the better. Funding poured in, supporting the reconstruction of crucial infrastructure, creating jobs, and promoting economic growth. However, a broader transformation—including efforts to improve governance and fight corruption—never came. Migration from the region grew in the ensuing years, boosting remittances that helped rebuild as much as any foreign aid. It is clear that the region needs aid once again in the wake of Hurricanes Eta and Iota. This time around, it will be up to Biden to make sure the good it does lasts for the long term.
Correction, Dec. 3, 2020: Kurt Ver Beek is a co-founder of the nonprofit Association for a More Just Society in Honduras. A previous version of this article misstated the name of the organization. Also, the two hurricanes that hit Central America in November were named Eta and Iota. A previous version of this article contained a misspelling of the latter storm’s designated name.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--Assad’s Syria Is Starving Like Saddam’s Iraq

Thirty-year-old Ayman fled Damascus , Syria , for Beirut at the beginning of the Syrian civil war .
Over the last year , while Lebanon ’ s economy collapsed and it became harder for him to find work , the conflict back home seemed to be subsiding .
So he called several of his friends , all living in regime-controlled territory , to inquire if it was time to return .
They were unequivocal .
“ They said , ‘ Stay wherever you are , there ’ s not even enough to eat here , ’ ” Ayman said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerns .
During the nine-year civil war , much of Syria ’ s infrastructure was destroyed by the blind bombing of the regime and its Russian allies , as well as front-line fighting .
Food production , power generation , and other industries fell by the wayside .
Syria ’ s economy , tethered to Lebanon ’ s , hobbled on for a while .
However , early this year , as Lebanon ’ s monetary policy unraveled and capital controls were imposed to avoid a run on the banks , billions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also blocked .
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claims Lebanese banks hold at least $ 20 billion of Syrians ’ earnings , which , if they were accessible , would resolve the Syrian economic crisis all at once .
The currencies of Lebanon ’ s neighbors plummeted simultaneously as prices of basic commodities skyrocketed , in Syria by more than 200 percent .
Life became hard for the Lebanese , but harder still for war-ravaged Syrians .
Images of hundreds of Syrians lining up outside bakeries for subsidized bread and parked for hours on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Residents complained of the worst food and fuel crisis ever in their country .
“ Power cuts make it near impossible for businesses to operate , ” said one of Ayman ’ s friends from Damascus .
“ Fuel is too expensive to run generators.
” According to the World Food Program , 9.3 million Syrians are unsure where their next meal is coming from , an increase of around 1.4 million in the first six months of the year .
Moreover , northeast Syria , the country ’ s breadbasket , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States ’ Kurdish allies the Syrian Democratic Forces , which are yet to come to an agreement with the regime on grain supply .
Once a wheat exporter , Syria had become partly dependent on supplies from Russia , but even that aid failed when Moscow reduced flour sales abroad to maintain reserves at home during the uncertain times of the coronavirus pandemic .
Furthermore , U.S. sanctions on oil and gas meant only Iranian crude found its way to Syria .
Lack of that basic resource has had a ripple effect on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impacting local businesses .
More than 80 percent of Syrians now live below the poverty line .
Desperation to make ends meet has caused a concomitant rise in crime .
Gangs smuggling contraband , guns , and drugs , as well as kidnapping people for ransom , are running amok in several parts of the country .
Whilst this is all deeply linked to decades of corruption , mismanagement , and a brutal pulverization of rebel-held territory , some critics say that the crises are also a result of America ’ s sectoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made : whether sanctions will be as cruel and self-defeating in Syria as they were in Iraq two decades ago .
The numbers are disputed , but according to one study half a million children were said to have died in Iraq as a result of U.S.-led sanctions .
Saddam Hussein remained as dictatorial as ever and was ousted after years of suffering only when the United States attacked with its military .
The aim of this year ’ s Caesar sanctions , named after the police defector who fled Syria with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Syrians in state-run prisons , is likewise to compel the Syrian regime to change its behavior toward its people from “ murderous ” to more accommodating .
Senior Western diplomats have told Foreign Policy on many occasions that sanctions are the West ’ s last leverage against Assad to pressure him to release political prisoners , ensure the safe return of refugees , and agree to a political reconciliation that , if carried out sincerely , would eventually mean him leaving power .
They insist that paying for Syrian reconstruction , including of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that are necessary for the country ’ s food security and daily life , will end up strengthening the regime ’ s oppression .
They say they have no intention of letting Assad succeed in that , at least not unless he makes significant concessions .
Moreover , the West is worried that Assad may simply siphon off the funds , as he has allegedly done with a large portion of the humanitarian aid already sent for the war-afflicted .
But others say that sanctions can not reform an incorrigible dictator and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ posit that , as in Iraq , the Syrian population is bearing the brunt of sanctions while Assad and his cronies are facing neither food nor fuel shortages .
They assert that it is naive for the United States to expect Assad to hold war criminals accountable , as he can hardly be expected to indict himself .
Their argument is that the United States must reverse its maximum pressure policy and institute stage-by-stage waivers on sanctions that it would be ready to provide in return for delivery of more pragmatic demands .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Middle East and North Africa Division at the Heinrich Böll Foundation , said there was no disagreement on targeted sanctions against Assad ’ s cronies but that America ’ s sectoral sanctions were having a negative impact on ordinary people .
“ U.S .
sanctions are based on a ‘ maximum pressure ’ logic , ” she said .
“ This is why they include sectoral sanctions , while only in a second step listing individuals .
[ European Union ] sanctions have been largely targeted : They consist of travel bans on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respective role in human rights violations .
Sectoral sanctions such as against Syrian banks curb the regime ’ s abilities to purchase goods from outside .
Humanitarian and medical goods are clearly exempted—Syrian civil society has pointed out , however , that over-compliance is affecting them.
” Aron Lund , a Syria specialist with the Swedish Defence Research Agency , said both the U.S. and EU sanctions came with exemptions for humanitarian activities and legitimate civilian trade .
However , businesses tended to fear having anything to do with a country under sanctions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to understand the rules and they did not want to take any risks .
“ Companies avoid even permissible trade , simply to stay clear of risks and legal hassle , ” he said .
“ When international banks or shipping companies decide that navigating the sanctions system just isn ’ t worth the trouble , it makes imports difficult and costly across the board.
” Zahraa Matr is a 55-year-old woman nicknamed Zahraa Dollars in Iraq .
She smuggled dollars inside the country at the peak of the sanctions against Saddam and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started to die because of the lack of medicines and medical supplies at the hospitals during the sanction years , ” she said .
“ People sold their belongings like furniture , metal—anything else they could sell to survive.
” In Syria , even anti-regime Syrians are beginning to say that sectoral sanctions in the oil and gas and construction sectors hurt the people more than the regime .
In Quneitra , southern Syria , 29-year-old father of three Abu Mishal said that he could rarely afford diesel , so to keep his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ garbage , plastic , and dung .
“ Sanctions have made goods more expensive for ordinary Syrians .
I don ’ t think that the Syrian regime officials and their families are going to sleep hungry or cold , ” Abu Mishal said .
“ In my opinion , the regime and its mafia also used the sanctions as an excuse to raise prices and exploit poor people more and more.
” Faced with an obstinate and intransigent Assad , the United States faces an impossible conundrum .
Former U.S. President Barack Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would oust Assad but commit the United States to yet another country for the foreseeable future .
The Syrian question remains unresolved nonetheless .
Nine years on , Obama ’ s vice president , President-elect Joe Biden , confronts a different challenge : how to stop starvation in Syria and help people resurrect their lives while not benefiting Assad .
The guilty feelings of his former colleagues in the Obama administration , who watched the Syrian war devolve into chaos , would urge him to take a keen interest .
How far up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ priorities Syria will be is another matter .

Thirty-year-old Ayman fled Damascus, Syria, for Beirut at the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Over the last year, while Lebanon’s economy collapsed and it became harder for him to find work, the conflict back home seemed to be subsiding. So he called several of his friends, all living in regime-controlled territory, to inquire if it was time to return. They were unequivocal. “They said, ‘Stay wherever you are, there’s not even enough to eat here,’” Ayman said, on condition of anonymity because of security concerns.
Thirty-year-old Ayman fled Damascus, Syria, for Beirut at the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Over the last year, while Lebanon’s economy collapsed and it became harder for him to find work, the conflict back home seemed to be subsiding. So he called several of his friends, all living in regime-controlled territory, to inquire if it was time to return. They were unequivocal. “They said, ‘Stay wherever you are, there’s not even enough to eat here,’” Ayman said, on condition of anonymity because of security concerns.
During the nine-year civil war, much of Syria’s infrastructure was destroyed by the blind bombing of the regime and its Russian allies, as well as front-line fighting. Food production, power generation, and other industries fell by the wayside. Syria’s economy, tethered to Lebanon’s, hobbled on for a while. However, early this year, as Lebanon’s monetary policy unraveled and capital controls were imposed to avoid a run on the banks, billions of dollars of deposits by Syrian businesses were also blocked. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claims Lebanese banks hold at least $20 billion of Syrians’ earnings, which, if they were accessible, would resolve the Syrian economic crisis all at once. The currencies of Lebanon’s neighbors plummeted simultaneously as prices of basic commodities skyrocketed, in Syria by more than 200 percent. Life became hard for the Lebanese, but harder still for war-ravaged Syrians.
Images of hundreds of Syrians lining up outside bakeries for subsidized bread and parked for hours on end at fuel stations flooded social media. Residents complained of the worst food and fuel crisis ever in their country. “Power cuts make it near impossible for businesses to operate,” said one of Ayman’s friends from Damascus. “Fuel is too expensive to run generators.”
According to the World Food Program, 9.3 million Syrians are unsure where their next meal is coming from, an increase of around 1.4 million in the first six months of the year. Moreover, northeast Syria, the country’s breadbasket, is under the control of the United States’ Kurdish allies the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are yet to come to an agreement with the regime on grain supply. Once a wheat exporter, Syria had become partly dependent on supplies from Russia, but even that aid failed when Moscow reduced flour sales abroad to maintain reserves at home during the uncertain times of the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, U.S. sanctions on oil and gas meant only Iranian crude found its way to Syria. Lack of that basic resource has had a ripple effect on the agriculture and energy sectors, also impacting local businesses.
More than 80 percent of Syrians now live below the poverty line. Desperation to make ends meet has caused a concomitant rise in crime. Gangs smuggling contraband, guns, and drugs, as well as kidnapping people for ransom, are running amok in several parts of the country.
Whilst this is all deeply linked to decades of corruption, mismanagement, and a brutal pulverization of rebel-held territory, some critics say that the crises are also a result of America’s sectoral sanctions.
A troubling comparison is being made: whether sanctions will be as cruel and self-defeating in Syria as they were in Iraq two decades ago. The numbers are disputed, but according to one study half a million children were said to have died in Iraq as a result of U.S.-led sanctions. Saddam Hussein remained as dictatorial as ever and was ousted after years of suffering only when the United States attacked with its military.
The aim of this year’s Caesar sanctions, named after the police defector who fled Syria with the evidence of the killing of thousands of Syrians in state-run prisons, is likewise to compel the Syrian regime to change its behavior toward its people from “murderous” to more accommodating. Senior Western diplomats have told Foreign Policy on many occasions that sanctions are the West’s last leverage against Assad to pressure him to release political prisoners, ensure the safe return of refugees, and agree to a political reconciliation that, if carried out sincerely, would eventually mean him leaving power. They insist that paying for Syrian reconstruction, including of infrastructure like power plants and irrigation systems that are necessary for the country’s food security and daily life, will end up strengthening the regime’s oppression. They say they have no intention of letting Assad succeed in that, at least not unless he makes significant concessions. Moreover, the West is worried that Assad may simply siphon off the funds, as he has allegedly done with a large portion of the humanitarian aid already sent for the war-afflicted.
But others say that sanctions cannot reform an incorrigible dictator and are merely punishing the Syrian people. They posit that, as in Iraq, the Syrian population is bearing the brunt of sanctions while Assad and his cronies are facing neither food nor fuel shortages. They assert that it is naive for the United States to expect Assad to hold war criminals accountable, as he can hardly be expected to indict himself. Their argument is that the United States must reverse its maximum pressure policy and institute stage-by-stage waivers on sanctions that it would be ready to provide in return for delivery of more pragmatic demands.
Bente Scheller, the head of the Middle East and North Africa Division at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, said there was no disagreement on targeted sanctions against Assad’s cronies but that America’s sectoral sanctions were having a negative impact on ordinary people. “U.S. sanctions are based on a ‘maximum pressure’ logic,” she said. “This is why they include sectoral sanctions, while only in a second step listing individuals. [European Union] sanctions have been largely targeted: They consist of travel bans on regime officials and proxies based on their respective role in human rights violations. Sectoral sanctions such as against Syrian banks curb the regime’s abilities to purchase goods from outside. Humanitarian and medical goods are clearly exempted—Syrian civil society has pointed out, however, that over-compliance is affecting them.”
Aron Lund, a Syria specialist with the Swedish Defence Research Agency, said both the U.S. and EU sanctions came with exemptions for humanitarian activities and legitimate civilian trade. However, businesses tended to fear having anything to do with a country under sanctions, simply because it was too complicated to understand the rules and they did not want to take any risks. “Companies avoid even permissible trade, simply to stay clear of risks and legal hassle,” he said. “When international banks or shipping companies decide that navigating the sanctions system just isn’t worth the trouble, it makes imports difficult and costly across the board.”
Zahraa Matr is a 55-year-old woman nicknamed Zahraa Dollars in Iraq. She smuggled dollars inside the country at the peak of the sanctions against Saddam and remembers the hard times. “Kids started to die because of the lack of medicines and medical supplies at the hospitals during the sanction years,” she said. “People sold their belongings like furniture, metal—anything else they could sell to survive.”
In Syria, even anti-regime Syrians are beginning to say that sectoral sanctions in the oil and gas and construction sectors hurt the people more than the regime. In Quneitra, southern Syria, 29-year-old father of three Abu Mishal said that he could rarely afford diesel, so to keep his family warm this winter he was burning garbage, plastic, and dung. “Sanctions have made goods more expensive for ordinary Syrians. I don’t think that the Syrian regime officials and their families are going to sleep hungry or cold,” Abu Mishal said. “In my opinion, the regime and its mafia also used the sanctions as an excuse to raise prices and exploit poor people more and more.”
Faced with an obstinate and intransigent Assad, the United States faces an impossible conundrum. Former U.S. President Barack Obama did not repeat an Iraq-style war that would oust Assad but commit the United States to yet another country for the foreseeable future. The Syrian question remains unresolved nonetheless. Nine years on, Obama’s vice president, President-elect Joe Biden, confronts a different challenge: how to stop starvation in Syria and help people resurrect their lives while not benefiting Assad. The guilty feelings of his former colleagues in the Obama administration, who watched the Syrian war devolve into chaos, would urge him to take a keen interest. How far up the incoming president’s list of priorities Syria will be is another matter.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--U.S. Fears Syria’s Assad Meddling in Fragile Lebanon

The Trump administration is worried that Syria ’ s Bashar al-Assad regime is working to undermine neighboring Lebanon by driving up exchange rates for its weakened currency and ratcheting up influence on the fragile government through Iran-backed Hezbollah , according to a State Department finding shared with Congress this summer and obtained by Foreign Policy .
Under pressure from U.S. and international sanctions over its human rights abuses and chemical weapons use during the nearly decadelong Syrian civil war , the Assad regime has long been dependent on siphoning money from the Lebanese banking system and smuggling the cash across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and wheat , experts said , something that Lebanon ’ s authorities have had trouble preventing .
“ The Assad regime continues to exert influence inside the Lebanese government through Hizballah and other political allies , undermining Lebanon ’ s independence and sovereignty .
Such influence poses significant challenges to Lebanon ’ s stability , ” the report says .
“ The Assad regime contributed to Lebanon ’ s recent economic collapse by attempting to extract as much foreign currency from the Lebanese market as possible , making dollars very scarce in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the Lebanese lira.
” Lebanon ’ s currency has seen an 80 percent devaluation in the past year , a drop that has pushed many skilled workers , such as doctors , to leave the country .
Syrian forces occupied Lebanon for nearly 30 years until 2005 , when a public uprising after the assassination of then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri—who had opposed the presence of those foreign troops on Lebanese soil—forced their exit .
But ever since , the Assad regime has sought to maintain influence over its smaller neighbor through Hezbollah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aim has only intensified as Syria has come under intense pressure from U.S. and international sanctions .
“ It ’ s no secret that the Assad regime openly refers to Lebanon and the Lebanese financial system as the lung of Syria , ” said Nicholas Heras , the director of government relations at the Institute for the Study of War , a Washington think tank .
“ When the Lebanese economy really started to nosedive last year , that really impacted the ability of the regime to access its foreign currency reserves.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Frangieh , the head of Lebanon ’ s Marada Movement , which held two seats in the last cabinet .
Before widespread protests toppled his previous government last year , Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri had pledged to dissociate from the Syrian civil war , a conflict that has stretched for nearly a full decade since the start of the 2011 Arab Spring .
Hariri was designated to form a cabinet in October , just months after the previous government resigned following a devastating explosion at Beirut ’ s port left more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to manage to navigate Lebanon ’ s delicate sectarian politics to do so .
The blast will also force Lebanese authorities to rebuild the devastated port , as the country remains highly dependent on imports—and some fear it will create more pressure on the government to kick out more than 1.5 million refugees in the country , many of them displaced by the Syrian conflict .
“ It would be easier for some politicians in Lebanon to blame Syrian refugees for the economic crisis and start pushing people back and that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate aide said .
“ The worse things get in Lebanon the more real that fear can get.
” Assad , facing the crunch of U.S. sanctions as he attempts to consolidate what ’ s left of the Syrian battlefield , has taken the opposite tack when it comes to involvement in Lebanon .
Hanin Ghaddar , a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy , said that shortages in critical goods including medicine have allowed Syria and Iran to flood the market with their own products .
“ The less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more access Hezbollah will have to Lebanon ’ s institutions and the stronger this parallel market will be , ” she said .
“ Iran and Syria will benefit from this.
” The Trump administration , under its so-called maximum pressure campaign of military and economic pressure against Iran , started designating Lebanese entities and lawmakers associated with Hezbollah , including the Jammal Trust Bank , for sanctions last year .
Meanwhile , Lebanon ’ s economic forecast has only gotten more dire , with the World Bank projecting real GDP growth to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year .
The development bank has blamed Lebanon ’ s authorities for failing to act on sweeping reforms to stabilize the economy .
An aid summit in August after the Beirut explosion , led by French President Emmanuel Macron , raised nearly $ 300 million for immediate assistance to the Lebanese people .
But Macron , hosting another aid conference on Wednesday , indicated France would withhold more financial assistance until Lebanon gets its political house in order—which only redoubles the immediate financial pressure Lebanon faces .
“ The central bank doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re using is people ’ s deposits .
They ’ ve been spending them to subsidize medications , fuel , [ and ] wheat , ” Ghaddar said .
“ Eventually the central bank will run out of those .
They will not be able to subsidize anything.
” But the pressure from Syrian currency withdrawals and the international community has not motivated the Lebanese government—long accused of corruption—to change its ways , experts said .
“ They ’ re refusing to reform .
They stupidly thought that Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the day , ” Ghaddar said .
“ The international community can not come and save Lebanon every time .
”

The Trump administration is worried that Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime is working to undermine neighboring Lebanon by driving up exchange rates for its weakened currency and ratcheting up influence on the fragile government through Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to a State Department finding shared with Congress this summer and obtained by Foreign Policy.
The Trump administration is worried that Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime is working to undermine neighboring Lebanon by driving up exchange rates for its weakened currency and ratcheting up influence on the fragile government through Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to a State Department finding shared with Congress this summer and obtained by Foreign Policy.
Under pressure from U.S. and international sanctions over its human rights abuses and chemical weapons use during the nearly decadelong Syrian civil war, the Assad regime has long been dependent on siphoning money from the Lebanese banking system and smuggling the cash across the border along with fuel, flour, and wheat, experts said, something that Lebanon’s authorities have had trouble preventing.
“The Assad regime continues to exert influence inside the Lebanese government through Hizballah and other political allies, undermining Lebanon’s independence and sovereignty. Such influence poses significant challenges to Lebanon’s stability,” the report says. “The Assad regime contributed to Lebanon’s recent economic collapse by attempting to extract as much foreign currency from the Lebanese market as possible, making dollars very scarce in Lebanon and driving up the exchange rate for the Lebanese lira.”
Lebanon’s currency has seen an 80 percent devaluation in the past year, a drop that has pushed many skilled workers, such as doctors, to leave the country.
Syrian forces occupied Lebanon for nearly 30 years until 2005, when a public uprising after the assassination of then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri—who had opposed the presence of those foreign troops on Lebanese soil—forced their exit. But ever since, the Assad regime has sought to maintain influence over its smaller neighbor through Hezbollah and other political groups, and that aim has only intensified as Syria has come under intense pressure from U.S. and international sanctions.
“It’s no secret that the Assad regime openly refers to Lebanon and the Lebanese financial system as the lung of Syria,” said Nicholas Heras, the director of government relations at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank. “When the Lebanese economy really started to nosedive last year, that really impacted the ability of the regime to access its foreign currency reserves.”
Assad also maintains close ties with Suleiman Frangieh, the head of Lebanon’s Marada Movement, which held two seats in the last cabinet.
Before widespread protests toppled his previous government last year, Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri had pledged to dissociate from the Syrian civil war, a conflict that has stretched for nearly a full decade since the start of the 2011 Arab Spring.
Hariri was designated to form a cabinet in October, just months after the previous government resigned following a devastating explosion at Beirut’s port left more than 200 people dead, but has yet to manage to navigate Lebanon’s delicate sectarian politics to do so. The blast will also force Lebanese authorities to rebuild the devastated port, as the country remains highly dependent on imports—and some fear it will create more pressure on the government to kick out more than 1.5 million refugees in the country, many of them displaced by the Syrian conflict.
“It would be easier for some politicians in Lebanon to blame Syrian refugees for the economic crisis and start pushing people back and that’s long been a concern,” a Senate aide said. “The worse things get in Lebanon the more real that fear can get.”
Assad, facing the crunch of U.S. sanctions as he attempts to consolidate what’s left of the Syrian battlefield, has taken the opposite tack when it comes to involvement in Lebanon. Hanin Ghaddar, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that shortages in critical goods including medicine have allowed Syria and Iran to flood the market with their own products.
“The less Lebanon is able to import, the more access Hezbollah will have to Lebanon’s institutions and the stronger this parallel market will be,” she said. “Iran and Syria will benefit from this.”
The Trump administration, under its so-called maximum pressure campaign of military and economic pressure against Iran, started designating Lebanese entities and lawmakers associated with Hezbollah, including the Jammal Trust Bank, for sanctions last year.
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economic forecast has only gotten more dire, with the World Bank projecting real GDP growth to slow to around negative 19 percent this year. The development bank has blamed Lebanon’s authorities for failing to act on sweeping reforms to stabilize the economy. An aid summit in August after the Beirut explosion, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, raised nearly $300 million for immediate assistance to the Lebanese people. But Macron, hosting another aid conference on Wednesday, indicated France would withhold more financial assistance until Lebanon gets its political house in order—which only redoubles the immediate financial pressure Lebanon faces.
“The central bank doesn’t have any reserves anymore, what they’re using is people’s deposits. They’ve been spending them to subsidize medications, fuel, [and] wheat,” Ghaddar said. “Eventually the central bank will run out of those. They will not be able to subsidize anything.”
But the pressure from Syrian currency withdrawals and the international community has not motivated the Lebanese government—long accused of corruption—to change its ways, experts said.
“They’re refusing to reform. They stupidly thought that Biden’s administration was going to come and save the day,” Ghaddar said. “The international community cannot come and save Lebanon every time.”


foreignpolicy--2020-12-02--Showdown in House Foreign Affairs Chair Race Reflects Rifts in Democratic Party

A group of leading Democratic lawmakers have recommended New York Rep. Gregory Meeks as the next chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee , after an unusually competitive three-way race for the influential congressional role that has an outsized hand in shaping U.S. foreign policy .
The Democratic steering committee ’ s endorsement of Meeks seems to clear the way for him to win the chairmanship during the full caucus vote on Thursday .
But long-shot progressive challenger Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro hasn ’ t given up the fight and is still actively rallying support ahead of the full vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The race between centrist Meeks and Castro is a microcosm of the ongoing battle within the Democratic Party over what its foreign-policy platform should be , as progressive lawmakers push the party and President-elect Joe Biden to adopt more left-leaning policies that pare back decades of bipartisan consensus on issues like military spending , U.S. troop deployments abroad , and free-trade deals .
Those same intra-party tensions are playing out as Biden faces pressure from the center and left flanks of his party over key administration appointments .
This includes the CIA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of defense , where the seeming favorite , Michèle Flournoy , has faced criticism from progressive groups over her ties to the defense industry and her role in U.S. interventions in Libya and the Middle East during prior posts at the Department of Defense .
Progressive Democratic lawmakers including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar also backed an effort to block Biden from elevating Bruce Reed , his former chief of staff , to an influential administration post , criticizing his record as a deficit hawk who endorsed cuts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far outstripped both his challengers inside the Democratic steering committee , securing 29 votes , against Castro ’ s 13 , with California Rep. Brad Sherman , a committee veteran , getting 10 .
Sherman bowed out shortly after the vote , held late Tuesday .
If Meeks is elected , he will make history as the first Black chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in its 198-year history .
Meeks has crucial backing from the Congressional Black Caucus for the vote , and has even netted endorsements from influential progressive members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But environmental and labor groups have also urged House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to oppose Meeks over what they describe as his “ pro-corporate trade ” positions , as Axios reported .
Castro has support from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and key members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus , including Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona .
Earlier this year , Castro broke precedent by declaring his intention to run for the chairmanship—top committee posts are usually picked by seniority—after the current chairman , New York Rep. Eliot Engel , lost a bruising primary race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bid for the chairmanship , Castro , currently vice chair of the committee and chairman of the subcommittee on oversight and investigations , has called for a new Democratic approach to foreign policy .
While the vote for the chairmanship is done by secret ballot , Castro ’ s entry into the race turned what are typically closed-door deliberations into a rare public spectacle .
Progressive foreign-policy groups hope to spark a broader inside-the-Beltway debate on what Democrats should stand for on foreign policy , especially after a disappointing harvest of House seats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the chairmanship of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will play an important role in Congress ’ s work on national security , foreign aid , trade , and the Biden administration ’ s pledge to revitalize America ’ s demoralized diplomatic corps .
Engel , the current chairman , found himself at the center of some of the fiercest battles between Democrats and the Trump administration during the past four years .
The committee played a key role in outgoing President Donald Trump ’ s impeachment investigation and opened other probes into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , as well as controversial arms sales .
Both Meeks and Castro previously told Foreign Policy they would keep those investigations open after Trump leaves office in January .

A group of leading Democratic lawmakers have recommended New York Rep. Gregory Meeks as the next chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, after an unusually competitive three-way race for the influential congressional role that has an outsized hand in shaping U.S. foreign policy.
A group of leading Democratic lawmakers have recommended New York Rep. Gregory Meeks as the next chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, after an unusually competitive three-way race for the influential congressional role that has an outsized hand in shaping U.S. foreign policy.
The Democratic steering committee’s endorsement of Meeks seems to clear the way for him to win the chairmanship during the full caucus vote on Thursday. But long-shot progressive challenger Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro hasn’t given up the fight and is still actively rallying support ahead of the full vote, several congressional aides told Foreign Policy.
The race between centrist Meeks and Castro is a microcosm of the ongoing battle within the Democratic Party over what its foreign-policy platform should be, as progressive lawmakers push the party and President-elect Joe Biden to adopt more left-leaning policies that pare back decades of bipartisan consensus on issues like military spending, U.S. troop deployments abroad, and free-trade deals.
Those same intra-party tensions are playing out as Biden faces pressure from the center and left flanks of his party over key administration appointments. This includes the CIA director position as well as the secretary of defense, where the seeming favorite, Michèle Flournoy, has faced criticism from progressive groups over her ties to the defense industry and her role in U.S. interventions in Libya and the Middle East during prior posts at the Department of Defense.
Progressive Democratic lawmakers including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar also backed an effort to block Biden from elevating Bruce Reed, his former chief of staff, to an influential administration post, criticizing his record as a deficit hawk who endorsed cuts to social security and Medicare.
Meeks far outstripped both his challengers inside the Democratic steering committee, securing 29 votes, against Castro’s 13, with California Rep. Brad Sherman, a committee veteran, getting 10. Sherman bowed out shortly after the vote, held late Tuesday.
If Meeks is elected, he will make history as the first Black chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in its 198-year history. Meeks has crucial backing from the Congressional Black Caucus for the vote, and has even netted endorsements from influential progressive members such as Michigan Rep. Andy Levin. But environmental and labor groups have also urged House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to oppose Meeks over what they describe as his “pro-corporate trade” positions, as Axios reported.
Castro has support from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and key members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, including Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona.
Earlier this year, Castro broke precedent by declaring his intention to run for the chairmanship—top committee posts are usually picked by seniority—after the current chairman, New York Rep. Eliot Engel, lost a bruising primary race against a progressive challenger. In his bid for the chairmanship, Castro, currently vice chair of the committee and chairman of the subcommittee on oversight and investigations, has called for a new Democratic approach to foreign policy.
While the vote for the chairmanship is done by secret ballot, Castro’s entry into the race turned what are typically closed-door deliberations into a rare public spectacle. Progressive foreign-policy groups hope to spark a broader inside-the-Beltway debate on what Democrats should stand for on foreign policy, especially after a disappointing harvest of House seats in the 2020 elections.
Whoever wins the chairmanship of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will play an important role in Congress’s work on national security, foreign aid, trade, and the Biden administration’s pledge to revitalize America’s demoralized diplomatic corps.
Engel, the current chairman, found himself at the center of some of the fiercest battles between Democrats and the Trump administration during the past four years. The committee played a key role in outgoing President Donald Trump’s impeachment investigation and opened other probes into the State Department, including allegations of mismanagement by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as well as controversial arms sales. Both Meeks and Castro previously told Foreign Policy they would keep those investigations open after Trump leaves office in January.