foreignpolicy--2020-12-24--The Biggest National Security Stories of the Year

The Biggest National Security Stories of the Year Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s Security Brief , dear readers—and to our final newsletter of the year .
What ’ s on tap today : a look back at the biggest national security stories of the year , and how they will define U.S. foreign policy under the Biden administration .
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday , please sign up here .
This week , as we sip our spiked eggnog and curl up on the couch to enjoy week 41 of lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the world of national security .
There was chaos in Washington , new showdowns with China and Iran , an impeachment trial ( remember that ? )
, elections that tested the foundations of U.S. democracy , and the deadly coronavirus pandemic .
To cap off this crazy year , below we take a look back at some of its most significant national security stories : what we reported and analyzed as the news broke , and the long-term impacts as Washington prepares for a transition of power on Jan. 20 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump White House killing top Iranian general Qassem Suleimani in an air strike , sending shockwaves through the Middle East and taking the U.S.-Iran showdown to new heights .
Dire predictions of full-scale war between the United States and Iran fell short , but Suleimani ’ s assassination set the stage for a year of tensions that defined much of Washington ’ s Middle East policy .
With U.S. President-elect Joe Biden set to enter the White House in January , Iran has signaled a wait-and-see approach on further confrontation .
Both Tehran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rekindle the Iran nuclear deal .
But the hard-line elements of Iran ’ s security establishment won ’ t soon forget Suleimani ’ s assassination .
The U.S. State Department already ordered a temporary drawdown of embassy personnel in Iraq over expected threats on the anniversary of the killing .
Any such threat could present a final foreign-policy crisis for Trump as he leaves the White House , and the first one for Biden as he enters the Oval Office .
U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s impeachment trial fizzled to a predictable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party lines—of abusing power and obstructing Congress in early February .
The impeachment trial presented a stark example of how politics no longer stops at the proverbial water ’ s edge , and how U.S. foreign policy—usually a bastion of bipartisan consensus—is increasingly tainted by hyper-partisan fights in Washington .
This will likely be one of Biden ’ s biggest challenges when he takes office in January .
Top Republican lawmakers aren ’ t letting go of the underlying obsession behind Trump ’ s impeachment : Joe Biden and his son Hunter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy company .
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has called for a special counsel to investigate whether Hunter Biden ’ s ties to Ukraine present a conflict of interest for the incoming president .
Suffice it to say , all the controversies surrounding Trump ’ s impeachment trial won ’ t magically disappear come inauguration day .
The coronavirus pandemic turned the world upside down this year .
While developed countries are still reeling from the pandemic that has infected over 73 million people and killed 1.6 million , an even grimmer story is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world ’ s war- and famine-ravaged countries will be vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks for years to come , as wealthy countries stockpile the majority of available vaccines .
The United Nations tried to head off this problem in late March , launching a preemptive campaign to raise money for countries already facing conflict and humanitarian crises to address the pandemic .
But the risk of deadly outbreaks in refugee camps or conflict zones remains high , and health experts expect it to remain a vexing problem for international relief agencies .
by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 14 Trump spent much of his first few years in office in a love-hate relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping .
At the beginning of 2020 , he slapped tariffs and trade restrictions on China—before saying that the relationship with Beijing had “ never been better ” at the World Economic Forum in Davos .
The spread of the coronavirus from Wuhan , China , changed all of that .
Trump threatened to “ cut off the whole relationship ” and was egged on by Republican allies in Congress , who blamed China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for bringing global economic growth to a halt .
Trade appears to have recovered , with the United States still dependent on China for critical inputs , and China still dependent on many U.S. goods .
But Biden ’ s incoming cabinet , facing a Washington united in its antipathy toward Beijing , will have to decide how far to push back on China after the pandemic—and whether America ’ s economic relationship with China will be wholly or only partially confrontational .
As Trump ’ s reelection kicked into high gear after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on weeding out officials seen as not sufficiently loyal to his agenda .
The drive started slowly , with the White House placing loyalists at the State Department and then seeking to remake the Pentagon , removing Defense Secretary Mark Esper and pushing for the hiring of conspiracy theorists .
On his way out the door , Trump can still sow havoc through an executive order that calls for U.S. government agencies to potentially reclassify career employees , splintering trust between career and political employees and further deepening the civil-military divide .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or typos to securitybrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief, dear readers—and to our final newsletter of the year. What’s on tap today: a look back at the biggest national security stories of the year , and how they will define U.S. foreign policy under the Biden administration.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief, dear readers—and to our final newsletter of the year. What’s on tap today: a look back at the biggest national security stories of the year, and how they will define U.S. foreign policy under the Biden administration.
If you would like to receive Security Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here.
The (Dumpster Fire) Year in Review
This week, as we sip our spiked eggnog and curl up on the couch to enjoy week 41 of lockdown, we reflect on an insane year in the world of national security. There was chaos in Washington, new showdowns with China and Iran, an impeachment trial (remember that?), elections that tested the foundations of U.S. democracy, and the deadly coronavirus pandemic.
To cap off this crazy year, below we take a look back at some of its most significant national security stories: what we reported and analyzed as the news broke, and the long-term impacts as Washington prepares for a transition of power on Jan. 20, 2021.
by Keith Johnson and Lara Seligman, Jan. 3
2020 kicked off with the Trump White House killing top Iranian general Qassem Suleimani in an air strike, sending shockwaves through the Middle East and taking the U.S.-Iran showdown to new heights. Dire predictions of full-scale war between the United States and Iran fell short, but Suleimani’s assassination set the stage for a year of tensions that defined much of Washington’s Middle East policy.
With U.S. President-elect Joe Biden set to enter the White House in January, Iran has signaled a wait-and-see approach on further confrontation. Both Tehran and the Biden team appear ready to rekindle the Iran nuclear deal. But the hard-line elements of Iran’s security establishment won’t soon forget Suleimani’s assassination. The U.S. State Department already ordered a temporary drawdown of embassy personnel in Iraq over expected threats on the anniversary of the killing.
Any such threat could present a final foreign-policy crisis for Trump as he leaves the White House, and the first one for Biden as he enters the Oval Office.
by Amy MacKinnon and Robbie Gramer, Feb. 5
U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial fizzled to a predictable end when the Senate acquitted him—mostly along party lines—of abusing power and obstructing Congress in early February. The impeachment trial presented a stark example of how politics no longer stops at the proverbial water’s edge, and how U.S. foreign policy—usually a bastion of bipartisan consensus—is increasingly tainted by hyper-partisan fights in Washington. This will likely be one of Biden’s biggest challenges when he takes office in January.
Top Republican lawmakers aren’t letting go of the underlying obsession behind Trump’s impeachment: Joe Biden and his son Hunter, a former board member of a Ukrainian energy company. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has called for a special counsel to investigate whether Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukraine present a conflict of interest for the incoming president.
Suffice it to say, all the controversies surrounding Trump’s impeachment trial won’t magically disappear come inauguration day.
by Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer, Mar. 23
The coronavirus pandemic turned the world upside down this year. While developed countries are still reeling from the pandemic that has infected over 73 million people and killed 1.6 million, an even grimmer story is developing in poorer countries. Some of the world’s war- and famine-ravaged countries will be vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks for years to come, as wealthy countries stockpile the majority of available vaccines.
The United Nations tried to head off this problem in late March, launching a preemptive campaign to raise money for countries already facing conflict and humanitarian crises to address the pandemic. But the risk of deadly outbreaks in refugee camps or conflict zones remains high, and health experts expect it to remain a vexing problem for international relief agencies.
by Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer, May 14
Trump spent much of his first few years in office in a love-hate relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. At the beginning of 2020, he slapped tariffs and trade restrictions on China—before saying that the relationship with Beijing had “never been better” at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
The spread of the coronavirus from Wuhan, China, changed all of that. Trump threatened to “cut off the whole relationship” and was egged on by Republican allies in Congress, who blamed China’s pandemic response to the pandemic for bringing global economic growth to a halt.
Trade appears to have recovered, with the United States still dependent on China for critical inputs, and China still dependent on many U.S. goods. But Biden’s incoming cabinet, facing a Washington united in its antipathy toward Beijing, will have to decide how far to push back on China after the pandemic—and whether America’s economic relationship with China will be wholly or only partially confrontational.
by Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, Jul. 3
As Trump’s reelection kicked into high gear after the impeachment, the administration became intent on weeding out officials seen as not sufficiently loyal to his agenda. The drive started slowly, with the White House placing loyalists at the State Department and then seeking to remake the Pentagon, removing Defense Secretary Mark Esper and pushing for the hiring of conspiracy theorists.
On his way out the door, Trump can still sow havoc through an executive order that calls for U.S. government agencies to potentially reclassify career employees, splintering trust between career and political employees and further deepening the civil-military divide.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or typos to securitybrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-25--Turkey’s Year of Living Dangerously

Turkey’s Year of Living Dangerously

But if there ’ s one man who didn ’ t let a pandemic stifle his quest for glory , it is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan .
Not that his year went swimmingly .
Erdogan ’ s crowning infrastructure project , Istanbul Airport—set to be the world ’ s largest—hardly boasts many visitors with global travel in the doldrums .
And the Turkish economy , once a poster child of GDP growth , is wheezing .
Still , in 2020 , Erdogan took the wrecking ball he ’ d previously slammed into Turkey ’ s domestic politics and turned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Turkey ’ s military was more active around the world than it has been in decades , or perhaps ever .
From Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh , the Turkish leader has used armed force to advance Turkey ’ s objectives .
He ’ s turned natural gas drilling in the Mediterranean into a contact sport .
But Erdogan ’ s real impact on geopolitics won ’ t roll in on a tank ; it will come in the form of the 21st-century pan-Islamism that he has finessed through soft power .
The religious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has filled a void in the larger Muslim world—one on display in Erdogan ’ s recent war of words with French President Emmanuel Macron .
Despite the strongman facade , there are signs that Erdogan ’ s foundation is cracking .
The Turkish opposition is growing , and his foreign policy has proved onerous and costly .
And as erstwhile NATO partners turn their backs on Turkey—even the Trump administration has reluctantly imposed long-delayed sanctions on the country—Erdogan doesn ’ t have too many allies left .
Here are five of the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adventures and misadventures in the face of growing domestic and international pushback .
1 .
How Did the Eastern Mediterranean Become the Eye of a Geopolitical Storm ?
The Mediterranean Sea has long been home to various fault lines , but the present wave of tension dates to natural gas discoveries off Israel , Egypt , and especially Cyprus—energy resources that Turkey wants a piece of .
That alone has caused conflict with Greece , Cyprus , France , the European Union , and NATO .
But it ’ s also led to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with which Turkey fancifully carved up the Mediterranean .
Ankara ramped up its support of the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord in Libya ’ s civil war , even dispatching arms and troops to the country .
Turkey ’ s intervention complicated matters by “ linking the already tense maritime stand-off in the Eastern Mediterranean to the Libyan civil war , ” Tanchum explains .
Then Turkey turned back to Northern Cyprus , where it ’ s been meddling for more than 40 years .
“ With France and Egypt already in open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the world fear that any further escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean could set off a Euro-Middle Eastern maelstrom , ” Tanchum writes .
Even as Erdogan pursues gunboat diplomacy , his brand of moderate political Islam has never been more popular in the Muslim world .
Turkey under Erdogan is a brilliant purveyor of soft power ; Turkish dramas are second only to U.S. series in their global distribution , Bhutto writes , with Muslim viewers finding refreshing nuance in something that is neither Hollywood nor Bollywood .
Ankara ’ s neo-Ottomanism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The question going forward is how it will reshape or splinter the global Islamic community , especially opposite rivals like Saudi Arabia .
“ The blistering and bombastic Erdogan may be divisive at home , but abroad , whether one likes him or hates him , he possesses a charisma that has been absent in the Muslim world for decades , ” Bhutto writes .
3 .
Erdogan Has Hidden an Economic Disaster Deep in Turkish Banks Erdogan is lucky to have some soft power , because his country ’ s economic prospects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spending far beyond its means , ” Miller writes , but has avoided sovereign debt , instead tasking its big banks with taking advantage of low U.S. interest rates to get loans in dollars , which they plowed into the local economy .
The problem : As the Turkish lira has plunged in value , those banks are becoming nervous about getting repaid .
And , to make matters worse , Erdogan made those banks partners in propping up the lira by loaning billions of dollars to the central bank to buy back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A big hole is not what you want in your central bank ’ s balance sheet , but this is the reality that Turkey faces ” —with few palatable options to stave off devaluation , recession , or both—Miller writes .
Financial deficits aren ’ t the only loss that concerns Erdogan ’ s ruling Justice and Development Party .
Turkey ’ s long-battered opposition party—the Republican People ’ s Party—celebrated a number of key electoral victories in 2019 .
Its resurgence can be credited in part to Canan Kaftancioglu , who ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communications strategy of “ Radical Love , ” stressing inclusive language in a political climate usually marked by divisiveness .
Erdogan , whose political success relies on division and antagonism , has taken note of the party ’ s inroads under Kaftancioglu ’ s guidance and is ratcheting up his offensive .
“ Just as Kaftancioglu ’ s approach turns many people off , it also caters to others who previously may have felt excluded , such as younger people , leftists , liberals , and religious and ethnic minorities , ” Ashdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Erdogan ’ s demise , as Turkey ’ s youth—half the population is under 32—grow frustrated with the only leader they have ever known .
Generation Z “ have watched [ Erdogan ] morph from a dynamic leader building a more democratic , prosperous , and Western-oriented Turkey to an exhausted autocrat struggling to govern , ” Tol and Alemdaroglu write .

Though it now seems tragically comic, many of us spent the waning days of 2019 believing we would—and could—absolutely conquer 2020. All our resolutions were walloped by mid-March, and 2020 instead became the year that conquered us .
Though it now seems tragically comic, many of us spent the waning days of 2019 believing we would—and could—absolutely conquer 2020. All our resolutions were walloped by mid-March, and 2020 instead became the year that conquered us.
But if there’s one man who didn’t let a pandemic stifle his quest for glory, it is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Not that his year went swimmingly. Erdogan’s crowning infrastructure project, Istanbul Airport—set to be the world’s largest—hardly boasts many visitors with global travel in the doldrums. And the Turkish economy, once a poster child of GDP growth, is wheezing.
Still, in 2020, Erdogan took the wrecking ball he’d previously slammed into Turkey’s domestic politics and turned it on the region. This year, Turkey’s military was more active around the world than it has been in decades, or perhaps ever. From Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh, the Turkish leader has used armed force to advance Turkey’s objectives. He’s turned natural gas drilling in the Mediterranean into a contact sport.
But Erdogan’s real impact on geopolitics won’t roll in on a tank; it will come in the form of the 21st-century pan-Islamism that he has finessed through soft power. The religious revivalism that is so controversial within Turkey has filled a void in the larger Muslim world—one on display in Erdogan’s recent war of words with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Despite the strongman facade, there are signs that Erdogan’s foundation is cracking. The Turkish opposition is growing, and his foreign policy has proved onerous and costly. And as erstwhile NATO partners turn their backs on Turkey—even the Trump administration has reluctantly imposed long-delayed sanctions on the country—Erdogan doesn’t have too many allies left.
Here are five of the best Foreign Policy pieces chronicling Turkey’s adventures and misadventures in the face of growing domestic and international pushback.
by Michaël Tanchum, Aug. 18
The Mediterranean Sea has long been home to various fault lines, but the present wave of tension dates to natural gas discoveries off Israel, Egypt, and especially Cyprus—energy resources that Turkey wants a piece of. That alone has caused conflict with Greece, Cyprus, France, the European Union, and NATO.
But it’s also led to a deeper Turkish involvement in Libya, with which Turkey fancifully carved up the Mediterranean. Ankara ramped up its support of the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord in Libya’s civil war, even dispatching arms and troops to the country. Turkey’s intervention complicated matters by “linking the already tense maritime stand-off in the Eastern Mediterranean to the Libyan civil war,” Tanchum explains.
Then Turkey turned back to Northern Cyprus, where it’s been meddling for more than 40 years. “With France and Egypt already in open conflict with Turkey in Libya, observers around the world fear that any further escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean could set off a Euro-Middle Eastern maelstrom,” Tanchum writes.
by Fatima Bhutto, Sept. 5
Even as Erdogan pursues gunboat diplomacy, his brand of moderate political Islam has never been more popular in the Muslim world. Turkey under Erdogan is a brilliant purveyor of soft power; Turkish dramas are second only to U.S. series in their global distribution, Bhutto writes, with Muslim viewers finding refreshing nuance in something that is neither Hollywood nor Bollywood.
Ankara’s neo-Ottomanism has certainly filled a cultural vacuum. The question going forward is how it will reshape or splinter the global Islamic community, especially opposite rivals like Saudi Arabia. “The blistering and bombastic Erdogan may be divisive at home, but abroad, whether one likes him or hates him, he possesses a charisma that has been absent in the Muslim world for decades,” Bhutto writes.
An employee sorts Turkish lira banknotes at a bank in the town of Sarmada in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province on June 14.
by Chris Miller, Aug. 11
Erdogan is lucky to have some soft power, because his country’s economic prospects are looking dim. Turkey is “spending far beyond its means,” Miller writes, but has avoided sovereign debt, instead tasking its big banks with taking advantage of low U.S. interest rates to get loans in dollars, which they plowed into the local economy. The problem: As the Turkish lira has plunged in value, those banks are becoming nervous about getting repaid.
And, to make matters worse, Erdogan made those banks partners in propping up the lira by loaning billions of dollars to the central bank to buy back lira on the open market. “A big hole is not what you want in your central bank’s balance sheet, but this is the reality that Turkey faces”—with few palatable options to stave off devaluation, recession, or both—Miller writes.
by Nick Ashdown, May 1
Financial deficits aren’t the only loss that concerns Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party. Turkey’s long-battered opposition party—the Republican People’s Party—celebrated a number of key electoral victories in 2019. Its resurgence can be credited in part to Canan Kaftancioglu, who’s gotten the party to embrace a communications strategy of “Radical Love,” stressing inclusive language in a political climate usually marked by divisiveness.
Erdogan, whose political success relies on division and antagonism, has taken note of the party’s inroads under Kaftancioglu’s guidance and is ratcheting up his offensive. “Just as Kaftancioglu’s approach turns many people off, it also caters to others who previously may have felt excluded, such as younger people, leftists, liberals, and religious and ethnic minorities,” Ashdown writes.
by Gonul Tol and Ayca Alemdaroglu, July 15
That expanded electorate could spell Erdogan’s demise, as Turkey’s youth—half the population is under 32—grow frustrated with the only leader they have ever known. Generation Z “have watched [Erdogan] morph from a dynamic leader building a more democratic, prosperous, and Western-oriented Turkey to an exhausted autocrat struggling to govern,” Tol and Alemdaroglu write.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-26--What Spies Really Think About John le Carré

What Spies Really Think About John le Carré David Cornwell , who wrote for six decades under his famous penname , John le Carré , and who died Dec. 12 at the age of 89 , came from a long tradition of British writers who were also spies .
Unlike others in that tradition , however , his books transcend their spy-novel genre .
Like espionage itself , they are about human frailty—moral ambiguity , intrigue , nuance , doubt , and cowardice .
And for the same reason , le Carré ’ s fiction had the rare distinction of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Although he worked for British intelligence for only a few years , in low-level positions—le Carré was the only novelist to have served in both MI5 ( Britain ’ s domestic-focused Security Service ) and MI6 ( foreign intelligence ) —his experiences shaped his entire subsequent writing career .
He wrote his first novel , Call for the Dead ( 1961 ) , a minor masterpiece , while commuting by train to MI5 ’ s London headquarters—making it surely the best novel ever written on a train—though he had moved to MI6 by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time , both services were heavily shrouded in secrecy , far more so than today .
Britain ’ s government then did not even publicly avow the existence of its intelligence services .
Forbidden from even mentioning either service , le Carré instead amalgamated them into a single fictional institution : the Circus .
That book introduced readers to George Smiley , le Carré ’ s most famous character .
Although brilliantly written , Smiley ’ s initial introduction in the novel gave no hint that he would become the greatest ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s first description of Smiley—short , fat , quiet , unattractive , with “ really bad clothes , ” looking like a “ bullfrog in a sou ’ wester , ” who marries an astonishingly beautiful titled lady—was the antithesis to Ian Fleming ’ s James Bond , then dominating the field of spy fiction .
From that novel onward , le Carré brought a gray drudgery to the world of espionage , which readers could identify with—including many intelligence officers .
MI6 immediately had , and continues to have , a complex @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carré ’ s novels were so widely read that they came to define MI6 ’ s public perception .
Their readers were , and are , forgiven for concluding betrayal was a defining characteristic of MI6 and , following Smiley , its officers .
The reality is otherwise .
Declassified British intelligence records reveal the high degree of trust among its officers—responsible for keeping Britain ’ s most sensitive secrets .
Le Carré used some of the greatest true spy stories of the Cold War for inspiration in his novels .
And they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treachery and damage that Kim Philby , a high-level KGB agent inside MI6 , inflicted on British intelligence can be seen in one of his most celebrated novels , Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ( 1974 ) , and the career of Magnus Pym , the protagonist in A Perfect Spy ( 1986 ) .
The Spy Who Came In From the Cold was published the same year that Philby defected to the Soviet Union , 1963 , where he joined his fellow Cambridge spies Guy Burgess and Donald Maclean .
The case of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agent deep inside Soviet military intelligence , provided le Carré inspiration for The Russia House ( 1989 ) .
Penkovsky ’ s espionage about Soviet missiles helped U.S. President John F. Kennedy to resolve the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962 .
Echoing Penkovsky , the novel describes a Soviet nuclear physicist , Yakov , seeking to provide the West with secrets about the Soviet nuclear arsenal .
The real-life British businessman whom MI6 used to contact Penkovsky , Greville Wynne , is le Carré ’ s inspiration for Bartholomew “ Barley ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his James Bond character , memorably played Blair in the 1990 film of le Carré ’ s novel .
Meanwhile , le Carré ’ s matron-like character Connie Sachs was inspired by a true-life counterintelligence expert , Milicent Bagot , described in MI5 ’ s authorized history .
Le Carré later reminisced to the author Ben Macintyre that Bagot “ always wore a hat indoors and never missed a rehearsal of the Bach Choir.
” Le Carré appears to have got satirical revenge on Bagot , who gave new intelligence recruits like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sachs , the alter ego of the abstemious Bagot , who was looked after at home by her aging childhood nanny , as an alcoholic .
Britain ’ s intelligence services used their secrecy well , to create mystique—and , as le Carré would be quick to point out , to cover up uncomfortable truths .
Meanwhile , le Carré used his hush-hush career to add authenticity and credibility to his novels .
At a time when little was said officially about these services , his books provided audiences with a fictionalized education @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people in postwar Britain understood more fiction than fact about the country ’ s secret state .
The mysteriousness the secret services cultivated , and le Carré wrote about , produced misleading portrayals of British intelligence in novels , films , and TV series .
Missing from le Carré ’ s novels is a balanced sense of Britain ’ s intelligence successes—how its services protected the country ’ s national security , stealing secrets of adversaries .
Penkovsky ’ s true story is one of bravery , passing MI6 and CIA valuable information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also a tragedy : The KGB caught Penkovsky and executed him as a warning to others who might betray the Soviet Union .
Le Carré never wrote a novel about Oleg Gordievsky , a highly successful agent whom MI6 recruited , ran inside the KGB , and then managed to exfiltrate to Britain from the Soviet Union .
Readers , viewers , and reviewers believed The Spy Who Came In From the Cold was the “ real thing ” because le Carré wrote realistically as well as brilliantly .
Both the novel and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , were “ sheer fiction from start to finish ” : This was not , however , the view taken by the world ’ s press , which with one voice decided that the book was not merely authentic but some kind of revelatory Message From The Other Side , leaving me with nothing to do but sit tight and watch , in a kind of frozen awe , as it climbed the bestseller list and stuck there , while pundit after pundit heralded it as the real thing .
While le Carré @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boundaries with the real world of espionage did sometimes blur .
Unlike other espionage writers such as Graham Greene ( a wartime MI6 officer ) , le Carré ’ s writing entered intelligence services themselves .
He popularized the term “ mole ” in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy to describe a long-term enemy agent who has burrowed into an intelligence service .
While “ mole ” is the main word that le Carré introduced into professional intelligence vernacular , it first appears in Call for the Dead ’ s first chapter not meaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s nickname .
Only later , thanks to le Carré , did it take on its different meaning .
Le Carre is responsible for other language that has become intelligence vernacular on both sides of the Atlantic— “ honeytrap , ” “ scalphunter , ” “ lamplighter ” to name a few .
Inside the CIA , the team responsible for hunting Soviet agents later in the Cold War was called the “ Russia House.
” And , with life imitating art , senior CIA officers chased their own real-life Karlas , Smiley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carré ’ s books also reached over the Iron Wall ; it is no accident that his death earned a tribute from the Russian Embassy in London : “ Although on the other side of the Iron Curtain , he knew and understood Russia—and is admired by millions of Russian readers.
” The last head of Soviet foreign intelligence and the first head of Russia ’ s post-Soviet service , Yevgeny Primakov , was a great admirer of le Carré .
When he visited London as President Boris Yeltsin ’ s foreign minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ambassador to invite le Carré to lunch : “ I very much enjoyed speaking with this outstanding man .
… I was especially pleased to receive a copy of his recently published Smiley ’ s People , with the author ’ s inscription : ‘ To Evgeny Maximovich Primakov with my sincere warm wishes and with the hope that we will live in a much better world than the one which is described here.
’ ” Primakov told le Carré , “ I identify with George Smiley.
” Successive chiefs of MI6—formally known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) —did not .
Sir Maurice Oldfield , chief from 1973 to 1978 , told Sir Alec Guinness , who played Smiley in the acclaimed 1979 TV adaptation of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy : “ It ’ s young David [ Cornwell ] and his like that make it that much harder for the Service to recruit decent officers and sources .
They read his books , and they ’ re put off.
” Sir Richard Dearlove , chief from 1999 to 2004 , told a literary festival in 2019 at Cliveden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enjoyed enormously reading the Smiley books .
… However , he is so corrosive in his view of MI6 that most professional SIS officers are pretty angry with him .
Intelligence organizations are based on trust between colleagues .
… His books are exclusively about betrayal .
Britain ’ s intelligence services are now a world apart from those le Carré joined six decades ago .
They have come in from the cold .
MI6 now has a transparent recruitment process , and its chiefs , current and retired , have public profiles—even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s death led to a tribute from MI6 ’ s current chief , Richard Moore , who tweeted condolences from all those at the “ River House ” —the fictional name that le Carré gave to MI6 ’ s riverside London headquarters .
Moore praised le Carré ’ s “ evocative & brilliant novels.
” However , Moore ’ s earlier , first ever tweet as chief of MI6 revealed its complicated relationship with the author : He urged would-be Smileys not to apply to the service .

David Cornwell, who wrote for six decades under his famous penname, John le Carré, and who died Dec. 12 at the age of 89, came from a long tradition of British writers who were also spies. Unlike others in that tradition, however, his books transcend their spy-novel genre. Like espionage itself, they are about human frailty—moral ambiguity, intrigue, nuance, doubt, and cowardice. And for the same reason, le Carré’s fiction had the rare distinction of tangibly influencing his subject—the intelligence world.
David Cornwell, who wrote for six decades under his famous penname, John le Carré, and who died Dec. 12 at the age of 89, came from a long tradition of British writers who were also spies. Unlike others in that tradition, however, his books transcend their spy-novel genre. Like espionage itself, they are about human frailty—moral ambiguity, intrigue, nuance, doubt, and cowardice. And for the same reason, le Carré’s fiction had the rare distinction of tangibly influencing his subject—the intelligence world.
Although he worked for British intelligence for only a few years, in low-level positions—le Carré was the only novelist to have served in both MI5 (Britain’s domestic-focused Security Service) and MI6 (foreign intelligence)—his experiences shaped his entire subsequent writing career. He wrote his first novel, Call for the Dead (1961), a minor masterpiece, while commuting by train to MI5’s London headquarters—making it surely the best novel ever written on a train—though he had moved to MI6 by the time it was published. At the time, both services were heavily shrouded in secrecy, far more so than today. Britain’s government then did not even publicly avow the existence of its intelligence services. Forbidden from even mentioning either service, le Carré instead amalgamated them into a single fictional institution: the Circus.
That book introduced readers to George Smiley, le Carré’s most famous character. Although brilliantly written, Smiley’s initial introduction in the novel gave no hint that he would become the greatest ever credible fictional spy. Le Carré’s first description of Smiley—short, fat, quiet, unattractive, with “really bad clothes,” looking like a “bullfrog in a sou’wester,” who marries an astonishingly beautiful titled lady—was the antithesis to Ian Fleming’s James Bond, then dominating the field of spy fiction. From that novel onward, le Carré brought a gray drudgery to the world of espionage, which readers could identify with—including many intelligence officers.
MI6 immediately had, and continues to have, a complex and difficult relationship with Smiley. Le Carré’s novels were so widely read that they came to define MI6’s public perception. Their readers were, and are, forgiven for concluding betrayal was a defining characteristic of MI6 and, following Smiley, its officers. The reality is otherwise. Declassified British intelligence records reveal the high degree of trust among its officers—responsible for keeping Britain’s most sensitive secrets.
Le Carré used some of the greatest true spy stories of the Cold War for inspiration in his novels. And they did indeed involve devastating betrayals. The treachery and damage that Kim Philby, a high-level KGB agent inside MI6, inflicted on British intelligence can be seen in one of his most celebrated novels, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (1974), and the career of Magnus Pym, the protagonist in A Perfect Spy (1986). The Spy Who Came In From the Cold was published the same year that Philby defected to the Soviet Union, 1963, where he joined his fellow Cambridge spies Guy Burgess and Donald Maclean.
The case of Oleg Penkovsky, a CIA and MI6 agent deep inside Soviet military intelligence, provided le Carré inspiration for The Russia House (1989). Penkovsky’s espionage about Soviet missiles helped U.S. President John F. Kennedy to resolve the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962. Echoing Penkovsky, the novel describes a Soviet nuclear physicist, Yakov, seeking to provide the West with secrets about the Soviet nuclear arsenal. The real-life British businessman whom MI6 used to contact Penkovsky, Greville Wynne, is le Carré’s inspiration for Bartholomew “Barley” Blair. Sean Connery, stepping out of his James Bond character, memorably played Blair in the 1990 film of le Carré’s novel.
Meanwhile, le Carré’s matron-like character Connie Sachs was inspired by a true-life counterintelligence expert, Milicent Bagot, described in MI5’s authorized history. Le Carré later reminisced to the author Ben Macintyre that Bagot “always wore a hat indoors and never missed a rehearsal of the Bach Choir.” Le Carré appears to have got satirical revenge on Bagot, who gave new intelligence recruits like him a hard time. He portrayed Sachs, the alter ego of the abstemious Bagot, who was looked after at home by her aging childhood nanny, as an alcoholic.
Britain’s intelligence services used their secrecy well, to create mystique—and, as le Carré would be quick to point out, to cover up uncomfortable truths. Meanwhile, le Carré used his hush-hush career to add authenticity and credibility to his novels. At a time when little was said officially about these services, his books provided audiences with a fictionalized education about them. As a result, people in postwar Britain understood more fiction than fact about the country’s secret state.
The mysteriousness the secret services cultivated, and le Carré wrote about, produced misleading portrayals of British intelligence in novels, films, and TV series. Missing from le Carré’s novels is a balanced sense of Britain’s intelligence successes—how its services protected the country’s national security, stealing secrets of adversaries. Penkovsky’s true story is one of bravery, passing MI6 and CIA valuable information from inside Soviet intelligence. It is also a tragedy: The KGB caught Penkovsky and executed him as a warning to others who might betray the Soviet Union. Le Carré never wrote a novel about Oleg Gordievsky, a highly successful agent whom MI6 recruited, ran inside the KGB, and then managed to exfiltrate to Britain from the Soviet Union.
Readers, viewers, and reviewers believed The Spy Who Came In From the Cold was the “real thing” because le Carré wrote realistically as well as brilliantly. Both the novel and the film, le Carré later wrote, were “sheer fiction from start to finish”:
This was not, however, the view taken by the world’s press, which with one voice decided that the book was not merely authentic but some kind of revelatory Message From The Other Side, leaving me with nothing to do but sit tight and watch, in a kind of frozen awe, as it climbed the bestseller list and stuck there, while pundit after pundit heralded it as the real thing.
While le Carré’s novels were fiction, their boundaries with the real world of espionage did sometimes blur. Unlike other espionage writers such as Graham Greene (a wartime MI6 officer), le Carré’s writing entered intelligence services themselves. He popularized the term “mole” in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy to describe a long-term enemy agent who has burrowed into an intelligence service. While “mole” is the main word that le Carré introduced into professional intelligence vernacular, it first appears in Call for the Dead’s first chapter not meaning a penetration agent but as Smiley’s nickname. Only later, thanks to le Carré, did it take on its different meaning.
Le Carré is responsible for other language that has become intelligence vernacular on both sides of the Atlantic—“honeytrap,” “scalphunter,” “lamplighter” to name a few. Inside the CIA, the team responsible for hunting Soviet agents later in the Cold War was called the “Russia House.” And, with life imitating art, senior CIA officers chased their own real-life Karlas, Smiley’s Soviet intelligence nemesis.
Le Carré’s books also reached over the Iron Wall; it is no accident that his death earned a tribute from the Russian Embassy in London: “Although on the other side of the Iron Curtain, he knew and understood Russia—and is admired by millions of Russian readers.” The last head of Soviet foreign intelligence and the first head of Russia’s post-Soviet service, Yevgeny Primakov, was a great admirer of le Carré. When he visited London as President Boris Yeltsin’s foreign minister in 1997, Primakov asked the Russian ambassador to invite le Carré to lunch: “I very much enjoyed speaking with this outstanding man. … I was especially pleased to receive a copy of his recently published Smiley’s People, with the author’s inscription: ‘To Evgeny Maximovich Primakov with my sincere warm wishes and with the hope that we will live in a much better world than the one which is described here.’” Primakov told le Carré, “I identify with George Smiley.”
Successive chiefs of MI6—formally known as the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS)—did not. Sir Maurice Oldfield, chief from 1973 to 1978, told Sir Alec Guinness, who played Smiley in the acclaimed 1979 TV adaptation of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: “It’s young David [Cornwell] and his like that make it that much harder for the Service to recruit decent officers and sources. They read his books, and they’re put off.” Sir Richard Dearlove, chief from 1999 to 2004, told a literary festival in 2019 at Cliveden, in Britain:
We’ve all enjoyed enormously reading the Smiley books. … However, he is so corrosive in his view of MI6 that most professional SIS officers are pretty angry with him. Intelligence organizations are based on trust between colleagues. … His books are exclusively about betrayal.
Britain’s intelligence services are now a world apart from those le Carré joined six decades ago. They have come in from the cold. MI6 now has a transparent recruitment process, and its chiefs, current and retired, have public profiles—even tweeting. News of le Carré’s death led to a tribute from MI6’s current chief, Richard Moore, who tweeted condolences from all those at the “River House”—the fictional name that le Carré gave to MI6’s riverside London headquarters. Moore praised le Carré’s “evocative & brilliant novels.”
However, Moore’s earlier, first ever tweet as chief of MI6 revealed its complicated relationship with the author: He urged would-be Smileys not to apply to the service.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-26--The Deadly Crash of Europe’s Second Wave

The Deadly Crash of Europe ’ s Second Wave It didn ’ t last .
By fall , it was clear that a new wave of infections had arrived on the continent .
By year ’ s end , it was clear that outbreaks had slipped far beyond most governments ’ capacity to control .
And by late December , dreaded national lockdowns had returned in Germany , Britain , the Netherlands , and beyond as policymakers tried to buy time for the arrival of vaccines .
Yet even as the pandemic has pushed Europe to its limits , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political unity : The continent ’ s response to the coronavirus has followed a common pattern , but each country has done so in its own way and under its own constraints .
Sometimes those differences have been windows into national cultural curiosities .
Other times they have meant the difference between life and death on a vast scale .
Here are the best Foreign Policy pieces chronicling how Europe handled its second wave .
1 .
It ’ s a New Europe—If You Can Keep It In the lull before the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Union was focused on figuring out whether it could recover economically and politically from the first .
Adam Tooze charts the great leap forward that Europe managed to take , setting the foundation for united efforts to deal with virus-related shockwaves to come .
“ Acting constructively in the face of both deeply uncomfortable facts and profound internal divisions is a very considerable achievement , one of which the United States has so far proved conspicuously incapable , ” Tooze writes .
“ There is , however , no room for European complacency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this may be the end of the beginning .
But there is very rough water ahead.
” 2 .
Europe Doesn ’ t Want Lockdowns .
It Wants Government .
Europeans largely accepted the first round of lockdowns and limits , and populist critics of government shutdowns were often drowned out .
But as lockdowns and other restrictive measures returned with the second wave , so did the backlash .
Europe ’ s boisterous street protests against government-imposed public health restrictions earned widespread attention , especially as they veered into occasionally violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ examines not only what the protesters were against but also what they were for—namely , greater assurance of more government protection .
“ Dissatisfaction is growing , and so is the pressure on the state to perform better in this second wave , ” she writes .
“ But as long as citizens are afraid of contagion , citizens will want their governments to do more , not less.
” 3 .
Why Does Belgium Have the World ’ s Highest COVID-19 Death Rate ?
Europe has typically served as the counterpoint to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic .
Yet some of the richest and most developed European states have struggled the most from the pandemic—Belgium ’ s death rate is the world ’ s worst .
Felipe Araujo examines what accounts for Belgium ’ s catastrophic public health performance , noting deep regional and political divisions and offering a reminder that even well-off Western Europe has its own patterns of national dysfunction .
Switzerland has a global reputation for good government and orderly rectitude .
Joseph de Weck describes how the country ’ s apparent economic pragmatism , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have all combined to make Switzerland ’ s handling of the second wave disastrous socially—and , ultimately , economically—this year .
“ The Alpine country is immune to global crisis—or so the Swiss believe is the lesson from history , ” de Weck writes .
That has led to a sense of complacency and a widespread refusal to take any measures that could increase government spending or hurt the economy .
At the outset of the pandemic , much attention was focused on the reemergence of boundaries within Europe as countries blocked some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the pandemic has illustrated a more consequential long-term development , writes Caroline de Gruyter : Europe put up boundaries with the outside world and in the process reinforced its own identity .
Unlike in previous crises , the coronavirus outbreak , and the vulnerabilities it exposed , actually underscored what it meant to be European , a nebulous concept since the founding of the EU—and long before .
“ In the euro crisis and migration crisis , European countries fell into the national-sovereign reflex , ” de Gruyter writes .
“ But @ @ @ @ @ @ @

In this most unusual of years, Europe’s summer offered the strangest feeling of all: normality. While the United States was struggling through a scary second wave of coronavirus infections, Europe was celebrating the subsiding of its first. Tourism was still dampened, and masks were still a must. But schools mostly ended in a typical fashion, commuters returned to public transport and office life, and social life resumed in most of its forms, from dinner parties to after-work drinks.
In this most unusual of years, Europe’s summer offered the strangest feeling of all: normality. While the United States was struggling through a scary second wave of coronavirus infections, Europe was celebrating the subsiding of its first. Tourism was still dampened, and masks were still a must. But schools mostly ended in a typical fashion, commuters returned to public transport and office life, and social life resumed in most of its forms, from dinner parties to after-work drinks.
It didn’t last. By fall, it was clear that a new wave of infections had arrived on the continent. By year’s end, it was clear that outbreaks had slipped far beyond most governments’ capacity to control. And by late December, dreaded national lockdowns had returned in Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, and beyond as policymakers tried to buy time for the arrival of vaccines.
Yet even as the pandemic has pushed Europe to its limits, it has revealed the diversity contained in its political unity: The continent’s response to the coronavirus has followed a common pattern, but each country has done so in its own way and under its own constraints. Sometimes those differences have been windows into national cultural curiosities. Other times they have meant the difference between life and death on a vast scale.
Here are the best Foreign Policy pieces chronicling how Europe handled its second wave.
by Adam Tooze, Aug. 7
In the lull before the pandemic’s second wave, the European Union was focused on figuring out whether it could recover economically and politically from the first. Adam Tooze charts the great leap forward that Europe managed to take, setting the foundation for united efforts to deal with virus-related shockwaves to come.
“Acting constructively in the face of both deeply uncomfortable facts and profound internal divisions is a very considerable achievement, one of which the United States has so far proved conspicuously incapable,” Tooze writes. “There is, however, no room for European complacency. As far as COVID-19 is concerned, this may be the end of the beginning. But there is very rough water ahead.”
by Caroline de Gruyter, Nov. 6
Europeans largely accepted the first round of lockdowns and limits, and populist critics of government shutdowns were often drowned out. But as lockdowns and other restrictive measures returned with the second wave, so did the backlash. Europe’s boisterous street protests against government-imposed public health restrictions earned widespread attention, especially as they veered into occasionally violent confrontation with police.
Caroline de Gruyter examines not only what the protesters were against but also what they were for—namely, greater assurance of more government protection. “Dissatisfaction is growing, and so is the pressure on the state to perform better in this second wave,” she writes. “But as long as citizens are afraid of contagion, citizens will want their governments to do more, not less.”
Medics ready to load a patient infected with COVID-19 into a waiting helicopter to be transfered from Verviers hospital to Antwerp, on November 9, 2020.
by Felipe Araujo, Nov. 26
Europe has typically served as the counterpoint to portraits of a misgoverned United States during the pandemic. Yet some of the richest and most developed European states have struggled the most from the pandemic—Belgium’s death rate is the world’s worst. Felipe Araujo examines what accounts for Belgium’s catastrophic public health performance, noting deep regional and political divisions and offering a reminder that even well-off Western Europe has its own patterns of national dysfunction.
by Joseph de Weck, Nov. 10
Switzerland has a global reputation for good government and orderly rectitude. Joseph de Weck describes how the country’s apparent economic pragmatism, business-first approach, and divided federal government have all combined to make Switzerland’s handling of the second wave disastrous socially—and, ultimately, economically—this year.
“The Alpine country is immune to global crisis—or so the Swiss believe is the lesson from history,” de Weck writes. That has led to a sense of complacency and a widespread refusal to take any measures that could increase government spending or hurt the economy.
by Caroline de Gruyter, Dec. 4
At the outset of the pandemic, much attention was focused on the reemergence of boundaries within Europe as countries blocked some travel and fought over medical supplies. But the pandemic has illustrated a more consequential long-term development, writes Caroline de Gruyter: Europe put up boundaries with the outside world and in the process reinforced its own identity. Unlike in previous crises, the coronavirus outbreak, and the vulnerabilities it exposed, actually underscored what it meant to be European, a nebulous concept since the founding of the EU—and long before.
“In the euro crisis and migration crisis, European countries fell into the national-sovereign reflex,” de Gruyter writes. “But COVID-19 brought Europeans closer together.”


foreignpolicy--2020-12-28--The Best of 2020 to Read, Watch, or Listen To

The Best of 2020 to Read , Watch , or Listen To 2020 saw the release of some terrific books , TV series , podcasts , and even music that helped us make sense of a tumultuous year—or told us something fresh and fascinating about the world .
Here are some of the best new releases ( and a few classics ) reviewed by Foreign Policy this year .
1 .
Why Liberal Internationalism Is Still Indispensable—and Fixable To get an idea of what the incoming team of President-elect Joe Biden will be thinking about as they reshape U.S. foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A World Safe for Democracy is an indispensable read .
In fact , a senior member of the Biden team told Foreign Policy ’ s Michael Hirsh that they ’ ve been paying a great deal of attention to the Princeton University scholar ’ s ideas while they prepare for office .
Rejecting both the populist nationalism of the past four years and the naive globalism of prior administrations , Ikenberry lays out a clear case that a humbler internationalism remains indispensable .
In her bestseller Caste : The Origins of Our Discontents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that traditional definitions of racism are no longer enough to explain how the United States ’ enduring hierarchy holds Black Americans near the bottom .
Instead , she uses India ’ s horrifically discriminatory caste system as a new framework for understanding race .
The writer and journalist Yashica Dutt—as a Dalit , a victim of India ’ s caste system herself—argues that the book is a brilliant reframing of U.S. racism , even if it falls short in its understanding of how the system it takes as a starting point actually works @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for churning out riveting spy thrillers such as Homeland .
The latest Israeli production to go global is Tehran , the tightly wound story of a Mossad computer hacker sent to Iran to demolish its nuclear program .
Much of Tehran ’ s appeal in Israel was in its flouting of stereotypes about Iran and its suggestion that Iran ’ s rebellious youth culture is not unlike Israel ’ s own .
And in a year that has seen Israel make peace with some of its Arab neighbors , the show ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a newfound fascination with their erstwhile enemies .
4 .
Why Does China Have 1.4 Billion People and No Good Bands ?
What does the extraordinary global success of Mongolian rock bands such as the Hu tell us—other than the obvious fact that their music is extraordinarily good ?
Or , as our reviewer asks , “ Why does Mongolian music slap so hard and Chinese music ( with a few exceptions ) suck ?
” By diving into the two neighboring countries ’ very different music cultures , she makes a convincing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population of a mere 3 million , continuing to out-rock its giant neighbor .
5 .
The FP Guide to Staying In During a Pandemic With many parts of the world once again in lockdown—or as our readers otherwise hunker down and patiently wait for their turn to get vaccinated—we thought we ’ d re-up the Foreign Policy editorial staff ’ s recommendations for passing the time at home .
Our list of 12 things to read , watch , play , or listen to might have been put together during the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the selections are just as good today for when you ’ re not on Zoom , tending the kids , surfing ForeignPolicy.com , or baking yet another loaf of sourdough .

2020 saw the release of some terrific books, TV series, podcasts, and even music that helped us make sense of a tumultuous year—or told us something fresh and fascinating about the world. Here are some of the best new releases (and a few classics) reviewed by Foreign Policy this year.
2020 saw the release of some terrific books, TV series, podcasts, and even music that helped us make sense of a tumultuous year—or told us something fresh and fascinating about the world. Here are some of the best new releases (and a few classics) reviewed by Foreign Policy this year.
by Michael Hirsh, Dec. 5
To get an idea of what the incoming team of President-elect Joe Biden will be thinking about as they reshape U.S. foreign policy, G. John Ikenberry’s A World Safe for Democracy is an indispensable read. In fact, a senior member of the Biden team told Foreign Policy’s Michael Hirsh that they’ve been paying a great deal of attention to the Princeton University scholar’s ideas while they prepare for office. Rejecting both the populist nationalism of the past four years and the naive globalism of prior administrations, Ikenberry lays out a clear case that a humbler internationalism remains indispensable.
by Yashica Dutt, Sept. 17
In her bestseller Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents, the Pulitzer Prize-winning Isabel Wilkerson argues that traditional definitions of racism are no longer enough to explain how the United States’ enduring hierarchy holds Black Americans near the bottom. Instead, she uses India’s horrifically discriminatory caste system as a new framework for understanding race. The writer and journalist Yashica Dutt—as a Dalit, a victim of India’s caste system herself—argues that the book is a brilliant reframing of U.S. racism, even if it falls short in its understanding of how the system it takes as a starting point actually works.
Promotional photo for the TV series “Tehran” showing the Israeli actress Niv Sultan playing a Mossad agent.
by Jonathan H. Ferziger, Sept. 24
Israeli television producers have a knack for churning out riveting spy thrillers such as Homeland. The latest Israeli production to go global is Tehran, the tightly wound story of a Mossad computer hacker sent to Iran to demolish its nuclear program. Much of Tehran’s appeal in Israel was in its flouting of stereotypes about Iran and its suggestion that Iran’s rebellious youth culture is not unlike Israel’s own. And in a year that has seen Israel make peace with some of its Arab neighbors, the show’s popularity among Israelis is also entwined with a newfound fascination with their erstwhile enemies.
by Lauren Teixeira, Jan. 11
What does the extraordinary global success of Mongolian rock bands such as the Hu tell us—other than the obvious fact that their music is extraordinarily good? Or, as our reviewer asks, “Why does Mongolian music slap so hard and Chinese music (with a few exceptions) suck?” By diving into the two neighboring countries’ very different music cultures, she makes a convincing case for little Mongolia, with a population of a mere 3 million, continuing to out-rock its giant neighbor.
by Amy Mackinnon, March 20
With many parts of the world once again in lockdown—or as our readers otherwise hunker down and patiently wait for their turn to get vaccinated—we thought we’d re-up the Foreign Policy editorial staff’s recommendations for passing the time at home. Our list of 12 things to read, watch, play, or listen to might have been put together during the first phase of lockdowns in early 2020, but the selections are just as good today for when you’re not on Zoom, tending the kids, surfing ForeignPolicy.com, or baking yet another loaf of sourdough.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-28--How Trump’s Assault on International Organizations Benefits Beijing

But something happened along the way to dismantling the new world order .
China made it clear it would try to fill the vacuum left by a United States turning increasingly inward , having notched several diplomatic successes by securing the appointment of senior Chinese diplomats at the head of the Food and Agriculture Organization and a senior United Nations diplomatic post in Africa ’ s Great Lakes region .
But nothing has inflicted as much damage on the international system as the dispute between China and the United States over who bears more responsibility for spreading the novel coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Foreign Policy articles that highlight America ’ s contradictory strategy of retreating from the international organizations while preventing China from taking full advantage of the retreat .
1 .
U.S. State Department Appoints Envoy to Counter Chinese Influence at the U.N .
Alarmed by China ’ s growing economic influence at the United Nations , the White House and the State Department began developing plans to contain Beijing ’ s ambitions .
In January , the State Department quietly created a post to counter what it sees as China ’ s malign influence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The move followed a number of failed U.S. diplomatic efforts to block Chinese nationals from securing senior posts at the U.N. , including the top job at the Food and Agriculture Organization and the senior U.N. envoy to Africa ’ s Great Lakes region .
In a bid for greater global influence , Beijing has been investing in the U.N. and other international organizations , contributing millions of dollars for global health , international peacekeeping and mediation missions , and sustainable development .
While the United States remains the biggest contributor to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sought to drastically scale back funding and will leave office with more than $ 1 billion in unpaid arrears to the U.N .
In contrast , China pays its bills on time .
China ’ s largesse has helped mitigate the diplomatic damage it has inflicted on its reputation thanks to repressive policies toward ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang and a crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong .
U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal has strengthened the case of Iranian hard-liners who have long advocated stronger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , an Iranian journalist and Middle East analyst .
In June , the Iranian cabinet approved a 25-year economic partnership deal with China .
While the terms are unclear , it may include a security arrangement with China , which participated in joint military exercises with Iran and Russia in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman last December .
The draft agreement constituted a “ major signal that reformists like [ President Hassan ] Rouhani have lost the initiative in Tehran , and their previously successful attempt to align Iran more closely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Jafari wrote .
In the midst of the Ebola crisis , the U.N. Security Council acted quickly to organize an international response to the disease , deploying international health care workers in the West African epicenter and altering the mandate of U.N. peacekeepers to aid in the fight against Ebola .
But with the coronavirus pandemic , the 15-nation council sat on the sidelines for months , with the United States insisting that any resolution on the pandemic include a provision blaming China for unleashing it on the world .
“ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broader U.S. strategy to deflect responsibility for its own sluggish response to the spread of the virus—is certain to be blocked by China , which wields veto power , ” wrote Lynch .
The dispute was the clearest sign yet that neither the United States nor China is prepared to provide global health leadership .
5. WHO Becomes Battleground as Trump Chooses Pandemic Confrontation Over Cooperation As criticism mounted this spring over his poor handling of the pandemic , Trump mounted an intensive public relations campaign aimed at blaming China for introducing COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ efforts to battle the pandemic itself .
The big-power feud over apportioning responsibility for the virus ’ s spread hobbled international efforts at the U.N. Security Council and the World Health Organization , and placed the pandemic at the center of the 2020 presidential election .
Furious that the World Health Organization ’ s leadership had praised China ’ s response to the pandemic , the White House announced plans to withdraw from the U.N. health agency and pursued a confrontational diplomatic campaign both there and in the U.N. Security Council .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York , and Washington have invested enormous political capital in highlighting the Chinese origins of the new coronavirus and casting a harsh spotlight on the U.N. health agency ’ s uncritical praise of the Chinese government , ” Lynch wrote .

In 2020, the Trump administration continued its ongoing campaign to downgrade U.S. relations with international organizations, announcing plans to withdraw from the World Health Organization and ramping up its campaign to undermine the Iran nuclear deal.
In 2020, the Trump administration continued its ongoing campaign to downgrade U.S. relations with international organizations, announcing plans to withdraw from the World Health Organization and ramping up its campaign to undermine the Iran nuclear deal.
But something happened along the way to dismantling the new world order. China made it clear it would try to fill the vacuum left by a United States turning increasingly inward, having notched several diplomatic successes by securing the appointment of senior Chinese diplomats at the head of the Food and Agriculture Organization and a senior United Nations diplomatic post in Africa’s Great Lakes region.
But nothing has inflicted as much damage on the international system as the dispute between China and the United States over who bears more responsibility for spreading the novel coronavirus.
Here are five of the best Foreign Policy articles that highlight America’s contradictory strategy of retreating from the international organizations while preventing China from taking full advantage of the retreat.
by Colum Lynch, Jan. 22
Alarmed by China’s growing economic influence at the United Nations, the White House and the State Department began developing plans to contain Beijing’s ambitions. In January, the State Department quietly created a post to counter what it sees as China’s malign influence at the U.N. and other international organizations. The move followed a number of failed U.S. diplomatic efforts to block Chinese nationals from securing senior posts at the U.N., including the top job at the Food and Agriculture Organization and the senior U.N. envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes region.
by Colum Lynch, Aug. 14
In a bid for greater global influence, Beijing has been investing in the U.N. and other international organizations, contributing millions of dollars for global health, international peacekeeping and mediation missions, and sustainable development. While the United States remains the biggest contributor to those agencies, the Trump administration has sought to drastically scale back funding and will leave office with more than $1 billion in unpaid arrears to the U.N. In contrast, China pays its bills on time. China’s largesse has helped mitigate the diplomatic damage it has inflicted on its reputation thanks to repressive policies toward ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang and a crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Chinese President Xi Jinping review troops during a welcoming ceremony.
by Saeid Jafari, Aug. 8
U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal has strengthened the case of Iranian hard-liners who have long advocated stronger ties with China, writes Saeid Jafari, an Iranian journalist and Middle East analyst. In June, the Iranian cabinet approved a 25-year economic partnership deal with China. While the terms are unclear, it may include a security arrangement with China, which participated in joint military exercises with Iran and Russia in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman last December. The draft agreement constituted a “major signal that reformists like [President Hassan] Rouhani have lost the initiative in Tehran, and their previously successful attempt to align Iran more closely with the West is now dead,” Jafari wrote.
by Colum Lynch, March 27
In the midst of the Ebola crisis, the U.N. Security Council acted quickly to organize an international response to the disease, deploying international health care workers in the West African epicenter and altering the mandate of U.N. peacekeepers to aid in the fight against Ebola. But with the coronavirus pandemic, the 15-nation council sat on the sidelines for months, with the United States insisting that any resolution on the pandemic include a provision blaming China for unleashing it on the world.
“The initiative—which appears to be part of a broader U.S. strategy to deflect responsibility for its own sluggish response to the spread of the virus—is certain to be blocked by China, which wields veto power,” wrote Lynch. The dispute was the clearest sign yet that neither the United States nor China is prepared to provide global health leadership.
by Colum Lynch, April 29
As criticism mounted this spring over his poor handling of the pandemic, Trump mounted an intensive public relations campaign aimed at blaming China for introducing COVID-19 to the world—even if that meant undermining efforts to battle the pandemic itself. The big-power feud over apportioning responsibility for the virus’s spread hobbled international efforts at the U.N. Security Council and the World Health Organization, and placed the pandemic at the center of the 2020 presidential election. Furious that the World Health Organization’s leadership had praised China’s response to the pandemic, the White House announced plans to withdraw from the U.N. health agency and pursued a confrontational diplomatic campaign both there and in the U.N. Security Council. “U.S. diplomats in Geneva, New York, and Washington have invested enormous political capital in highlighting the Chinese origins of the new coronavirus and casting a harsh spotlight on the U.N. health agency’s uncritical praise of the Chinese government,” Lynch wrote.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-28--Our Top Visual Stories of 2020

Our Top Visual Stories of 2020

From unraveling the significance of spiritual scarecrows in Cambodia to describing the plight of under-resourced midwives in Afghanistan , look back at 2020 through the lens of our best visual stories .
1 .
As America Shuts Its Doors , Afghan Refugees Are Stuck in Turkey At the start of the year , reporter Umar Farooq and photographer Oscar Durand portrayed the predicament of Afghan refugees left stranded in Turkey .
The Trump administration ’ s expanded vetting of immigrants and its cap of 18,000 asylum visas made their hopes of building a new life in the United States nearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bloodletting in Afghanistan nor the droves of refugees showing up on Western doorsteps have prompted sympathy from the world ’ s wealthiest nations .
Afghanistan is a conflict the West would rather forget.
” Toward the end of this year , tragedy struck for refugees once again .
Moria , Europe ’ s largest refugee camp , was destroyed after a fire .
Writer Andrew Connelly and photographer Nicola Zolin reported from Lesbos , Greece , on how the event highlights a dire need for Europe to rethink its migration policy so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mediterranean nations .
by Jenny Pacini , photos by Stefano Schirato , May 16 In the early stages of coronavirus lockdowns , global attention focused on Italy as the country experienced some of the steepest rises in coronavirus cases worldwide .
In May , Jenny Pacini and photographer Stefano Schirato reported from intensive care units across the country to intimately describe how some coronavirus patients were beginning an important next phase to their recovery : a return home .
Mexican culture pays special care and attention to the dead .
But due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traditions to mourn those who have departed are possible now .
In June , Maya Averbuch and photographer Luis Antonio Rojas reported from Mexico City on how families are bending tradition to help stop the spread of the coronavirus—but many still doubt the lockdown protocols will protect them .
Later this year , reporter Lorena Ríos and photographer Armando Vega told the stories of Mexican workers in the United States who have so far sent record remittances home in 2020 .
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the hidden cost of migration for families @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States to put a roof over their head .
As COVID-19 cases surge again , families in Mexico face the question of whether migration is worth it .
While Cambodia has among the lowest number of coronavirus cases in Southeast Asia , there have been uncorroborated reports of rampant coronavirus-related deaths in the countryside , prompting many to turn to old spiritual protectors , or ting mong , for help .
Jade Sacker reported from several homes in the Takeo , Kandal , and Kampong Speu provinces to show why these scarecrows are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who Started a Revolution in Minsk After 26 years in power , Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko guaranteed himself a questionable victory in the country ’ s presidential election in August .
What followed were mass protests , thousands of arrests , and a call for the return of opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya .
Writer Gareth Browne and photographer Jonny Pickup reported from Minsk on Tikhanovskaya ’ s rise to prominence .
In September , another key opposition leader , Maria Kolesnikova , was detained in Minsk .
Browne and Pickup teamed up once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disappearance seemed to have robbed the anti-government protest movement of its momentum .
Plus : The Midwives on the Front Lines Many of our visual stories this year were too impactful to ignore .
Such is the case for Lynzy Billing ’ s deep dive into the lives of midwives in Afghanistan .
This particular community of front-line medical workers has stepped in to become one of the most vital forces in the country ’ s overstretched health care system , especially as coronavirus cases mount and regional violence escalates .

Foreign Policy contributors brought to life the year’s most pressing stories through a powerful blend of original photography and reporting.
From unraveling the significance of spiritual scarecrows in Cambodia to describing the plight of under-resourced midwives in Afghanistan, look back at 2020 through the lens of our best visual stories.
Afghan men walk along the highway between the Turkish cities of Dogubayazit and Agri, in eastern Turkey, near the border with Iran on April 22, 2019. After crossing the border, they were unable to obtain proper documentation that would allow them to ride public transportation, forcing them to walk for hours or days as they travel toward Istanbul on their way to Europe.
by Umar Farooq, photos by Oscar Durand, Jan. 24
At the start of the year, reporter Umar Farooq and photographer Oscar Durand portrayed the predicament of Afghan refugees left stranded in Turkey. The Trump administration’s expanded vetting of immigrants and its cap of 18,000 asylum visas made their hopes of building a new life in the United States nearly inconceivable. Farooq writes: “Neither the bloodletting in Afghanistan nor the droves of refugees showing up on Western doorsteps have prompted sympathy from the world’s wealthiest nations. Afghanistan is a conflict the West would rather forget.”
Toward the end of this year, tragedy struck for refugees once again. Moria, Europe’s largest refugee camp, was destroyed after a fire. Writer Andrew Connelly and photographer Nicola Zolin reported from Lesbos, Greece, on how the event highlights a dire need for Europe to rethink its migration policy so that it lifts the burden off of Mediterranean nations.
Emanuela De Nicolo walks out of Santo Spirito Hospital on May 5 on her way home after 58 days in the hospital.
by Jenny Pacini, photos by Stefano Schirato, May 16
In the early stages of coronavirus lockdowns, global attention focused on Italy as the country experienced some of the steepest rises in coronavirus cases worldwide. In May, Jenny Pacini and photographer Stefano Schirato reported from intensive care units across the country to intimately describe how some coronavirus patients were beginning an important next phase to their recovery: a return home.
A hospital worker waits outside a COVID-19 triage unit at the General Hospital of Mexico in Mexico City on May 21.
by Maya Averbuch, photos by Luis Antonio Rojas, June 1
Mexican culture pays special care and attention to the dead. But due to lockdown measures, none of the age-old traditions to mourn those who have departed are possible now. In June, Maya Averbuch and photographer Luis Antonio Rojas reported from Mexico City on how families are bending tradition to help stop the spread of the coronavirus—but many still doubt the lockdown protocols will protect them.
Later this year, reporter Lorena Ríos and photographer Armando Vega told the stories of Mexican workers in the United States who have so far sent record remittances home in 2020. The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the hidden cost of migration for families that rely on relatives in the United States to put a roof over their head. As COVID-19 cases surge again, families in Mexico face the question of whether migration is worth it.
A family visits a young monk living in a monastery on Phnom Chisor for a blessing on April 5, while another monk looks on. Jade Sacker for Foreign Policy
by Jade Sacker, June 12
While Cambodia has among the lowest number of coronavirus cases in Southeast Asia, there have been uncorroborated reports of rampant coronavirus-related deaths in the countryside, prompting many to turn to old spiritual protectors, or ting mong, for help. Jade Sacker reported from several homes in the Takeo, Kandal, and Kampong Speu provinces to show why these scarecrows are so important.
Opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya boosts her height with books as she prepares to film a press video with Veronika Tsepkalo and Maria Kolesnikova in Minsk on Aug. 6 ahead of the election.
by Gareth Browne, photos by Jonny Pickup, Aug. 17
After 26 years in power, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko guaranteed himself a questionable victory in the country’s presidential election in August. What followed were mass protests, thousands of arrests, and a call for the return of opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Writer Gareth Browne and photographer Jonny Pickup reported from Minsk on Tikhanovskaya’s rise to prominence.
In September, another key opposition leader, Maria Kolesnikova, was detained in Minsk. Browne and Pickup teamed up once again to depict how Kolesnikova’s disappearance seemed to have robbed the anti-government protest movement of its momentum.
Midwife trainees prepare the labor ward for the first patients of the day at Mirwais Hospital on Feb. 18.
by Lynzy Billing, July 6
Many of our visual stories this year were too impactful to ignore. Such is the case for Lynzy Billing’s deep dive into the lives of midwives in Afghanistan. This particular community of front-line medical workers has stepped in to become one of the most vital forces in the country’s overstretched health care system, especially as coronavirus cases mount and regional violence escalates.


foreignpolicy--2020-12-28--7 Reasons Why Silicon Valley Will Have a Tough Time With the Biden Administration

7 Reasons Why Silicon Valley Will Have a Tough Time With the Biden Administration So far , U.S. President-elect Joe Biden seems like business as usual for Silicon Valley .
The industry ’ s upper class bankrolled his campaign , and several tech executives are likely to take senior positions in the incoming administration .
After an unpredictable four years , policy discussions are back on familiar ground—and companies are dusting off their tried-and-true lobbying techniques .
But while this may look at first glance like a return to the past , it is not : The mood and context @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cozy relationship between the Democratic Party and Big Tech is on the brink of becoming much more contentious .
The Dec. 10 anti-trust lawsuit brought against Facebook by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and the attorneys general of New York and other states is likely just the start of the long-expected crackdown on Silicon Valley , no matter which party controls the White House .
Here is why Big Tech is in for a rough time over the next four years : 1 .
Self-regulation has failed .
One of Silicon Valley ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been the cultural permission to try new things .
The public has put up with arrogant rhetoric and a lax attitude toward the law in exchange for innovative ideas that meaningfully improved upon the status quo .
But it was a Faustian bargain , with untrammeled innovation raising the specter of uncontrolled growth .
When we learn about Airbnb endangering neighbors , Twitter failing to stop rampant harassment , or YouTube radicalizing its viewers with an algorithm that recommends extremist content , we see the destructive harm technology companies can do and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The narrative has shifted from a question of whether there will be regulation at all to the fight over who should make the rules—and how tough those rules should be .
We see the destructive harm technology companies can do and their unwillingness to rein in their greed .
2 .
Trust is broken .
Across the industry , the promises made by the titans are meeting skepticism .
Before the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign , we used to wonder when Mark Zuckerberg would run for president ; now we ask in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as CEO of Facebook for so long .
A decade of lofty rhetoric about an open and connected world now falls flat , and the public sees Facebook for what it is : a data-hungry corporation that evades accountability and keeps its users addicted to its products .
Even within the company , internal surveys show barely half of its workforce thinks its products are having a positive effect on the world .
Zuckerberg , who once symbolized hope for a better future , has instead become Silicon Valley ’ s Darth Vader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where the city of San Francisco , where Zuckerberg has a residence , is working to remove the Zuckerberg name from its General Hospital , citing him as a risk to public health .
3 .
The backlash is bipartisan .
Democrats and Republicans don ’ t agree on much these days , but they do agree that the technology industry has become too powerful .
Whether it is Amazon systematically decimating main-street business , Instagram sapping the attention of the country ’ s youth , or Uber ’ s gig-economy practices taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imbalance .
Though the industry ’ s products remain popular with consumers , a consensus seems to be growing that concentrating so much decision-making power in the hands of a few billionaires is dangerous for society and democracy .
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren ’ s call to regulate and break up Big Tech was just the opening shot ; taking on these massive corporations will become a much more common exercise in economic populism .
4 .
Scrutiny is increasing inside Silicon Valley .
Google used to promise to do no evil ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who suggests it may be doing harm .
A recent controversy over the removal of Timnit Gebru , a well-known Google artificial intelligence ethics researcher , shows just how bad this has become .
Gebru co-authored a paper that warned about the societal risks of using large language models , a machine-learning approach the company commonly employs , and was subsequently removed from her position in a cloud of controversy .
This has caused a massive backlash within Google , leading to more than 1,400 employees signing a letter of protest and others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As media become more critical , employees more informed , and members of the public less trusting , we can expect the internal backlash in Silicon Valley over discrimination , bias , and the spread of other societal ills to reach new heights .
5 .
The entire Democratic Party has moved to the left .
Silicon Valley ’ s executive class includes some prominent Trump supporters—but there are few in the industry ’ s rank and file .
The Valley ’ s predominantly liberal population—along with the rest of the Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues such as workers ’ rights , wealth disparities , immigration , justice , and policing .
The coziness that former President Barack Obama showed with Google and other industry giants would not be tolerated by today ’ s activist wing .
In the Bay Area , technology companies are being pushed to take more progressive public stances on the issues that matter to their workforce , such as the recent controversy over cryptocurrency startup Coinbase ’ s attempts to quash discussion of discrimination and issues surrounding race .
At the same time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heightened tensions , with supporters such as Peter Thiel having left the Bay Area , declaring it ideologically inhabitable .
Tesla CEO Elon Musk , who has amassed a record for workplace violations , union busting , and COVID-19 denial in California , has moved his residence to Texas .
6 .
The public has a better understanding of tech ’ s dark side .
For a long time , the benefits offered by smartphones , slick software , and constant connection were so obvious that any costs seemed negligible in comparison .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ our devices has caused many people to call into question whether this equation still holds .
Though device usage has only increased , satisfaction with a digitally connected lifestyle seems to have decreased .
Abstract issues such as loss of privacy and the power of network effects now feel real and personal : We ’ ve all seen our actions online lead to intrusive ads that follow us on Google and Facebook ; we ’ ve all seen main-street businesses shut down through their inability to compete with e-commerce platforms ’ massive logistical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and regulatory favors they ’ ve been able to buy .
Tomorrow ’ s rising political stars are going to make their name standing up to Big Tech .
7 .
The future of labor and inequality is at stake .
Few issues animate the Democratic voter base as much today as keeping corporate power in check and obstructing tax avoidance by the rich .
Companies such as Amazon have come to symbolize everything they were traditionally seen to stand against : poor treatment of workers , monopolistic power grabs , and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ robber baron blush .
And these issues are being exacerbated at a much faster pace than you ’ d expect : Amazon ’ s size has exploded since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic , the robot technology that may soon replace the company ’ s workers is advancing exponentially , and Amazon is eyeing even more sectors of the economy to enter .
Tomorrow ’ s rising political stars are going to make their name standing up to Big Tech .
The next presidential candidates won ’ t be people like Zuckerberg—instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attorneys general pushing anti-trust lawsuits , senators curbing the power of social media companies , and House members interrogating tech CEOs in Congress .
Long before then , the public will have become disillusioned with the tech giants ’ claims about changing the world for the better—and become hostile toward the industry ’ s destructiveness instead .

So far, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden seems like business as usual for Silicon Valley. The industry’s upper class bankrolled his campaign , and several tech executives are likely to take senior positions in the incoming administration. After four unpredictable years, policy discussions are back on familiar ground—and companies are dusting off their tried-and-true lobbying techniques. But while this may look at first glance like a return to the past, it is not: The mood and context have changed utterly, and the traditionally cozy relationship between the Democratic Party and Big Tech is on the brink of turning much more contentious.
So far, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden seems like business as usual for Silicon Valley. The industry’s upper class bankrolled his campaign, and several tech executives are likely to take senior positions in the incoming administration. After four unpredictable years, policy discussions are back on familiar ground—and companies are dusting off their tried-and-true lobbying techniques. But while this may look at first glance like a return to the past, it is not: The mood and context have changed utterly, and the traditionally cozy relationship between the Democratic Party and Big Tech is on the brink of turning much more contentious. 2021 The Year Ahead logo
The Dec. 10 anti-trust lawsuit brought against Facebook by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and the attorneys general of New York and other states is likely just the start of the long-expected crackdown on Silicon Valley, no matter which party controls the White House.
Here is why Big Tech is in for a rough time over the next four years:
1. Self-regulation has failed. One of Silicon Valley’s most valuable assets until now has been the cultural permission to try new things. The public has put up with arrogant rhetoric and a lax attitude toward the law in exchange for innovative ideas that meaningfully improved upon the status quo. But it was a Faustian bargain, with untrammeled innovation raising the specter of uncontrolled growth. When we learn about Airbnb endangering neighbors, Twitter failing to stop rampant harassment, or YouTube radicalizing its viewers with an algorithm that recommends extremist content, we see the destructive harm technology companies can do and their unwillingness to rein in their greed. The narrative has shifted from a question of whether there will be regulation at all to the fight over who should make the rules—and how tough those rules should be.
2. Trust is broken. Across the industry, the promises made by the titans are meeting skepticism. Before the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign, we used to wonder when Mark Zuckerberg would run for president; now we ask in disbelief how he has kept his job as CEO of Facebook for so long. A decade of lofty rhetoric about an open and connected world now falls flat, and the public sees Facebook for what it is: a data-hungry corporation that evades accountability and keeps its users addicted to its products. Even within the company, internal surveys show barely half of its workforce thinks its products are having a positive effect on the world. Zuckerberg, who once symbolized hope for a better future, has instead become Silicon Valley’s Darth Vader. It has come to the point where the city of San Francisco, where Zuckerberg has a residence, is working to remove the Zuckerberg name from its General Hospital, citing him as a risk to public health.
We see the destructive harm technology companies can do and their unwillingness to rein in their greed.
3. The backlash is bipartisan. Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much these days, but they do agree that the technology industry has become too powerful. Whether it is Amazon systematically decimating main-street business, Instagram sapping the attention of the country’s youth, or Uber’s gig-economy practices taking advantage of workers, Americans sense an imbalance. Though the industry’s products remain popular with consumers, a consensus seems to be growing that concentrating so much decision-making power in the hands of a few billionaires is dangerous for society and democracy. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s call to regulate and break up Big Tech was just the opening shot; taking on these massive corporations will become a much more common exercise in economic populism.
4. Scrutiny is increasing inside Silicon Valley. Google used to promise to do no evil; now it appears to be suppressing anyone who suggests it may be doing harm. A recent controversy over the removal of Timnit Gebru, a well-known Google artificial intelligence ethics researcher, shows just how bad this has become. Gebru co-authored a paper that warned about the societal risks of using large language models, a machine-learning approach the company commonly employs, and was subsequently removed from her position in a cloud of controversy. This has caused a massive backlash within Google, leading to more than 1,400 employees signing a letter of protest and others to speak out publicly to defend her. As media become more critical, employees more informed, and members of the public less trusting, we can expect the internal backlash in Silicon Valley over discrimination, bias, and the spread of other societal ills to reach new heights.
5. The entire Democratic Party has moved to the left. Silicon Valley’s executive class includes some prominent Trump supporters—but there are few in the industry’s rank and file. The Valley’s predominantly liberal population—along with the rest of the Democratic Party—has moved to the left on key issues such as workers’ rights, wealth disparities, immigration, justice, and policing. The coziness that former President Barack Obama showed with Google and other industry giants would not be tolerated by today’s activist wing. In the Bay Area, technology companies are being pushed to take more progressive public stances on the issues that matter to their workforce, such as the recent controversy over cryptocurrency startup Coinbase’s attempts to quash discussion of discrimination and issues surrounding race. At the same time, the Trump era has led to heightened tensions, with supporters such as Peter Thiel having left the Bay Area, declaring it ideologically uninhabitable. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has amassed a record for workplace violations, union busting, and COVID-19 denial in California, has moved his residence to Texas.
6. The public has a better understanding of tech’s dark side. For a long time, the benefits offered by smartphones, slick software, and constant connection were so obvious that any costs seemed negligible in comparison. But a decade of being glued to our devices has caused many people to call into question whether this equation still holds. Though device usage has only increased, satisfaction with a digitally connected lifestyle seems to have decreased. Abstract issues such as loss of privacy and the power of network effects now feel real and personal: We’ve all seen our actions online lead to intrusive ads that follow us on Google and Facebook; we’ve all seen main-street businesses shut down through their inability to compete with e-commerce platforms’ massive logistical and economic advantages, including the tax and regulatory favors they’ve been able to buy.
Tomorrow’s rising political stars are going to make their name standing up to Big Tech.
7. The future of labor and inequality is at stake. Few issues animate the Democratic voter base as much today as keeping corporate power in check and obstructing tax avoidance by the rich. Companies such as Amazon have come to symbolize everything they were traditionally seen to stand against: poor treatment of workers, monopolistic power grabs, and a concentration of wealth that would make a robber baron blush. And these issues are being exacerbated at a much faster pace than you’d expect: Amazon’s size has exploded since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the robot technology that may soon replace the company’s workers is advancing exponentially, and Amazon is eyeing even more sectors of the economy to enter.
Tomorrow’s rising political stars are going to make their name standing up to Big Tech. The next presidential candidates won’t be people like Zuckerberg—instead, they may be drawn from the attorneys general pushing anti-trust lawsuits, senators curbing the power of social media companies, and House members interrogating tech CEOs in Congress. Long before then, the public will have become disillusioned with the tech giants’ claims about changing the world for the better—and become hostile toward the industry’s destructiveness instead.