foreignpolicy--2020-05-06--Coronavirus Creates U.S. Food Supply Shortages

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Coronavirus begins to shock U.S. meat supply chains , the United Kingdom records Europe ’ s highest coronavirus death toll , and a German court challenges the European Central Bank ’ s quantitative easing policies .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Retailers across the United States are limiting meat purchases as fallout from the coronavirus begins to be felt in the U.S. food supply chain .
Warehouse retailer Costco , along with grocery chains Kroger and Wegmans , have all enacted purchasing limits to stop customers panic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s is sold out of meat in one out of every five stores .
No country for vegetarians .
The United States consumes the most meat per capita of any country , so any long-term meat shortage isn ’ t likely to pass quietly .
The White House invoked the Defense Production Act last week to ensure the availability of meat during the crisis , as processing facilities have become outbreak clusters and led to closures nationwide .
On April 28 , the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union ( UFCW ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , said that 20 of its workers had died from COVID-19 and that 5,000 workers were either hospitalized or showing symptoms .
UFCW said plant closures during the pandemic have led to a 25 percent reduction in pork slaughter capacity and a 10 percent reduction in beef slaughter capacity .
Weak links in the supply chain .
Unlike its counterparts in Europe , the U.S. meat processing industry is highly consolidated .
In beef production , for example , just three companies account for two-thirds of the market .
This consolidation also takes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one large beef processing plant results in the loss of over 10 million beef servings in a single day , according to a White House fact sheet .
“ This is 100 % a symptom of consolidation , ” Christopher Leonard , author of The Meat Racket , told Bloomberg .
“ We don ’ t have a crisis of supply right now .
We have a crisis in processing.
” How does Europe compare ?
In Europe , the continent hit worst by the coronavirus pandemic , there is no such consolidation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only account for just 28 percent of meat production .
Outside those companies , the EU tends toward smaller slaughter companies that “ operate locally , traditionally and are fiercely independent ” according to a report by the European Federation of Food , Agriculture and Tourism Trade Unions .
As the coronavirus pandemic stretches health care workforces , it ’ s worth looking at how well placed each country is to handle it .
Some countries with high caseloads appear more vulnerable than others .
The United States , for example , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and nursing groups had declared a nursing shortage long before the pandemic ) .
In Italy , more than 50 percent of physicians are over 55 years old .
For a deeper look at how different countries ’ health care workforces compare , read FP ’ s analysis here .
United Kingdom now Europe ’ s worst hit country .
The United Kingdom now has the highest coronavirus death toll in Europe with approximately 32,000 deaths .
It has overtaken Italy ( 29,315 deaths ) and now has the world ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States .
Although Britain has seen a reduction in new coronavirus cases per day over the past week , the total number of new cases per day is about the same as it was at the beginning of the month .
This could be due to testing , as it recently pushed past a goal of 100,000 tests per day .
British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said it ’ s too soon to draw comparisons between other countries .
“ I don ’ t think we will get a real verdict on how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is over , ” Raab said .
White House to disband coronavirus task force .
The Trump administration is set to wind down a task force dedicated to handling the country ’ s coronavirus epidemic , even as the number of weekly cases has changed little since the beginning of April and appears to be rising in some states .
Although Vice President Mike Pence said the group will transition accountability from the task force back to the federal agencies by late May , infectious disease experts Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s unclear whether disbanding the task force will have much of an impact on the U.S. coronavirus response .
The White House has been largely sidelined while state governors carry most of the operational responsibility for handling the outbreak .
Dozens of states have already entered into regional pacts to secure personal protective equipment and other medical supplies .
Although the White House has issued its own guidelines for easing lockdowns , it ultimately left the responsibility with individual states .
German court threatens to block ECB program .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchase of German bonds through the European Central Bank ’ s Asset Purchase Program ( APP ) if the ECB can not show that the “ economic and fiscal policy effects ” of the program is within the bank ’ s remit .
The court said the German government has “ a duty to take active steps against ” such quantitative easing “ in its current form.
” The ruling does not affect the $ 750 billion pandemic response program already set up by the ECB .
Heinrik Enderlein , president of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argues that the court ’ s decision is “ economically naïve.
” “ The problem is that the border between monetary policy and its economic implications can ’ t be defined , ” he wrote on Twitter .
The broader worry is that the German court is setting a precedent for other countries to pick and choose which EU laws to obey .
Ivorian leader staying in France .
Ivory Coast ’ s prime minister , Amadou Gon Coulibaly , will be spending the next few weeks in France for medical reasons after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a statement from the country ’ s presidency .
He has a history of heart troubles and had heart surgery in 2012 .
Defense Minister Hamed Bakayoko will serve as interim prime minister until Coulibaly ’ s return .
The prime minister has a busy year ahead ; he is the ruling RHDP party ’ s candidate in the October presidential election .
China ’ s space plans .
Chinese state media reported the successful launch of a new rocket and prototype spacecraft as Beijing ’ s ambitions expand outside the earth ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cargo module that China hopes will one day be used to bring a crew to the moon , something Beijing plans to complete in the next decade .
An Italian summer vacation seems out of the question at the moment as the coronavirus is still keeping millions under lockdown .
That hasn ’ t stopped the island of Sicily from launching a daring campaign to entice travelers to come visit .
Sicily ’ s regional government is offering subsidized accommodation , discounted activities , and is even considering paying for flights in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time for summer .
Italy ’ s tourism agency is forecasting a 20 billion euro drop in tourism revenues compared to last year .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Coronavirus begins to shock U.S. meat supply chains , the United Kingdom records Europe's highest coronavirus death toll, and a German court challenges the European Central Bank ’s quantitative easing policies.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Coronavirus begins to shock U.S. meat supply chains, the United Kingdom records Europe’s highest coronavirus death toll, and a German court challenges the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing policies.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
U.S. Meat Supply Feels the Coronavirus Crunch
Retailers across the United States are limiting meat purchases as fallout from the coronavirus begins to be felt in the U.S. food supply chain. Warehouse retailer Costco, along with grocery chains Kroger and Wegmans, have all enacted purchasing limits to stop customers panic buying. The fast-food chain Wendy’s is sold out of meat in one out of every five stores.
No country for vegetarians. The United States consumes the most meat per capita of any country, so any long-term meat shortage isn’t likely to pass quietly.
The White House invoked the Defense Production Act last week to ensure the availability of meat during the crisis, as processing facilities have become outbreak clusters and led to closures nationwide.
On April 28, the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW), America’s largest meatpacking union, said that 20 of its workers had died from COVID-19 and that 5,000 workers were either hospitalized or showing symptoms. UFCW said plant closures during the pandemic have led to a 25 percent reduction in pork slaughter capacity and a 10 percent reduction in beef slaughter capacity.
Weak links in the supply chain. Unlike its counterparts in Europe, the U.S. meat processing industry is highly consolidated. In beef production, for example, just three companies account for two-thirds of the market. This consolidation also takes place at the factory level: closing one large beef processing plant results in the loss of over 10 million beef servings in a single day, according to a White House fact sheet.
“This is 100% a symptom of consolidation,” Christopher Leonard, author of The Meat Racket, told Bloomberg. “We don’t have a crisis of supply right now. We have a crisis in processing.”
How does Europe compare? In Europe, the continent hit worst by the coronavirus pandemic, there is no such consolidation; there, the top 15 companies only account for just 28 percent of meat production. Outside those companies, the EU tends toward smaller slaughter companies that “operate locally, traditionally and are fiercely independent” according to a report by the European Federation of Food, Agriculture and Tourism Trade Unions.
COVID-19 Exposes a Fragile Health Care Workforce
As the coronavirus pandemic stretches health care workforces, it’s worth looking at how well placed each country is to handle it. Some countries with high caseloads appear more vulnerable than others. The United States, for example, has the oldest nursing workforce on the list (and nursing groups had declared a nursing shortage long before the pandemic). In Italy, more than 50 percent of physicians are over 55 years old. For a deeper look at how different countries’ health care workforces compare, read FP’s analysis here.
What We’re Following Today
United Kingdom now Europe’s worst hit country. The United Kingdom now has the highest coronavirus death toll in Europe with approximately 32,000 deaths. It has overtaken Italy (29,315 deaths) and now has the world’s second highest death toll after the United States.
Although Britain has seen a reduction in new coronavirus cases per day over the past week, the total number of new cases per day is about the same as it was at the beginning of the month. This could be due to testing, as it recently pushed past a goal of 100,000 tests per day. British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said it’s too soon to draw comparisons between other countries. “I don’t think we will get a real verdict on how well countries have done until the pandemic is over,” Raab said.
White House to disband coronavirus task force. The Trump administration is set to wind down a task force dedicated to handling the country’s coronavirus epidemic, even as the number of weekly cases has changed little since the beginning of April and appears to be rising in some states. Although Vice President Mike Pence said the group will transition accountability from the task force back to the federal agencies by late May, infectious disease experts Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx will still retain a daily White House presence.
It’s unclear whether disbanding the task force will have much of an impact on the U.S. coronavirus response. The White House has been largely sidelined while state governors carry most of the operational responsibility for handling the outbreak. Dozens of states have already entered into regional pacts to secure personal protective equipment and other medical supplies. Although the White House has issued its own guidelines for easing lockdowns, it ultimately left the responsibility with individual states.
German court threatens to block ECB program. A German constitutional court ruling could stop the purchase of German bonds through the European Central Bank’s Asset Purchase Program (APP) if the ECB cannot show that the “economic and fiscal policy effects” of the program is within the bank’s remit. The court said the German government has “a duty to take active steps against” such quantitative easing “in its current form.” The ruling does not affect the $750 billion pandemic response program already set up by the ECB. Heinrik Enderlein, president of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, argues that the court’s decision is “economically naïve.”
“The problem is that the border between monetary policy and its economic implications can’t be defined,” he wrote on Twitter. The broader worry is that the German court is setting a precedent for other countries to pick and choose which EU laws to obey.
Keep an Eye On
Ivorian leader staying in France. Ivory Coast’s prime minister, Amadou Gon Coulibaly, will be spending the next few weeks in France for medical reasons after undergoing a heart exam, according to a statement from the country’s presidency. He has a history of heart troubles and had heart surgery in 2012. Defense Minister Hamed Bakayoko will serve as interim prime minister until Coulibaly’s return. The prime minister has a busy year ahead; he is the ruling RHDP party’s candidate in the October presidential election.
China’s space plans. Chinese state media reported the successful launch of a new rocket and prototype spacecraft as Beijing’s ambitions expand outside the earth’s atmosphere. The rocket carried a cargo module that China hopes will one day be used to bring a crew to the moon, something Beijing plans to complete in the next decade.
Odds and Ends
An Italian summer vacation seems out of the question at the moment as the coronavirus is still keeping millions under lockdown. That hasn’t stopped the island of Sicily from launching a daring campaign to entice travelers to come visit. Sicily’s regional government is offering subsidized accommodation, discounted activities, and is even considering paying for flights in a bid to kickstart its tourism industry in time for summer. Italy’s tourism agency is forecasting a 20 billion euro drop in tourism revenues compared to last year.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-06--How Slovakia Flattened the Curve

How Slovakia Flattened the Curve

The European country that has recorded the lowest number of deaths per capita from the coronavirus is neither restriction-easing Germany nor lockdown-averse Sweden but Slovakia—the Central European country of just 5.4 million people .
As of May 6 , Slovakia had confirmed 1,429 cases and 25 deaths from COVID-19 .
If New York City had the same per capita mortality rate from the virus , it would have 40 victims rather than 19,000 .
How has Slovakia successfully contained the coronavirus so far ?
First , let ’ s dispel the misconceptions .
Slovakia hasn ’ t fared well against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the contrary , it is very interconnected .
Hundreds of thousands of Slovaks work elsewhere in Europe—as daily commuters , seasonal workers , or long-term migrants .
For example , more than 20,000 Slovaks commute daily as caregivers for older adults in neighboring Austria , which had a major outbreak .
Slovakia ’ s young people are also more likely to study abroad than those in any other European Union country .
According to mobile phone data , about 50,000 Slovaks traveled to coronavirus-stricken northern Italy during the second half of February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t experience its own significant outbreak after they returned .
Nor can Slovakia ’ s low mortality rate be credited to the quality of its public institutions .
Though it is an EU member , Slovakia did not score highly in the 2019 Global Health Security Index , which assesses countries ’ capacity to respond to pandemics or similar threats .
It ranked 70th in its ability to detect a health security threat and 105th in its ability to respond to such a challenge .
By comparison , Germany ranked 10th for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last six weeks , the public has observed what this means in practice .
At the beginning of the pandemic , the Slovak public health authorities had limited stocks of personal protective equipment and diagnostic test kits .
They also had only a few teams ready to implement testing and contact tracing , though the teams were composed of seasoned civil servants working for the Slovak version of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic . ]
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ app or intelligent quarantine system in place .
Among other successful countries , Taiwan had such a system ready even before the pandemic began , and the Czech Republic—initially caught unprepared—put one in place at the end of March .
Still , outbreaks appear to be limited primarily to three groups : poor members of the Romani minority living in rural slums , likely spread by individuals returning from the United Kingdom ; older adults living in care facilities ; and returning migrants and their families .
The authorities ’ response came quickly—but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why isn ’ t Slovakia overrun by the coronavirus ?
Experts that I spoke to credit three main factors .
The most important was the government ’ s quick decision to institute a national lockdown effective March 16 , 10 days after the country confirmed its first coronavirus case .
The lockdown included the closure of all schools , restaurants , bars , and shops except for grocery stores , pharmacies , and banks—as well as a ban on all public events and gatherings .
The country also secluded itself by closing all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returning from abroad .
But unlike in some other countries , physical movement of individuals remained largely unrestricted .
The lockdown measures have only worked because of the second factor : an immediate and universal compliance by the Slovak population .
People did what they were told , even though Slovakia is generally plagued by low levels of trust in politicians and the government , according to the European Values Study .
Slovaks acted voluntarily without the need for large-scale coercive enforcement .
The response by the country ’ s political elites surely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saw partisan conflict over who was responsible for the lack of preparation , there was no disagreement about the seriousness of the threat or the need for the lockdown itself—unlike in the United States , where federal and state authorities have clashed .
This is where the third factor comes in .
More than the functioning of public institutions , experts credit the media as crucial to Slovakia ’ s success .
The universal use of face masks—instituted early despite the dismissive attitude of the World Health Organization—has become a symbol of Slovakia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A pivotal moment came on March 13 , when the anchor of the country ’ s most popular television program , Zlatica Puskarova , hosted incoming Prime Minister Igor Matovic and his health minister .
Puskarova began by asking the government officials why they didn ’ t lead by example , handing them two face masks .
They complied immediately , and from the next day the whole country started making and wearing face protection .
Since then , no Slovak politician , news reporter , or celebrity would be seen in public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was careful not to denigrate the need to strictly observe the lockdown .
The coronavirus crisis has also increased readership of the more serious media outlets .
Fringe and conspiracy sites focused on health issues , usually very popular in Slovakia , ignored the virus altogether for several weeks .
This allowed the mainstream media to dominate public discourse .
Even when criticizing specific government actions—such as a mismanaged travel ban during the Easter holiday—the mainstream media was careful not to denigrate the need to strictly observe the lockdown .
Slovakia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ websites are a diverse but fragmented bunch operating in a small market .
They lack the financial clout or resources of outlets in larger countries .
Despite that , many outlets have been able to attract committed and bright reporters motivated by the public interest .
The media has played an outsized role in the coronavirus crisis : not just by holding the government accountable but also by quickly disseminating new social norms .
The Slovak government began easing its lockdown measures on April 22 , and since the number of new daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the authorities opened most shops , restaurants , and hotels on May 6 .
The situation is far from normal—schools remain closed , and restaurants and bars can only serve patrons outdoors—but Slovaks have celebrated their ability to finally get a haircut by posting selfies of their new coiffures on social media .
While early and decisive action by governments is crucial in fighting the coronavirus , the case of Slovakia shows that media and civil society can compensate for the weakness of public health institutions by forging a consensus to observe @ @ @ @ @

The European country that has recorded the lowest number of deaths per capita from the coronavirus is neither restriction-easing Germany nor lockdown-averse Sweden but Slovakia—the Central European country of just 5.4 million people. As of May 6, Slovakia had confirmed 1,429 cases and 25 deaths from COVID-19. If New York City had the same per capita mortality rate from the virus, it would have 40 victims rather than 19,000.
The European country that has recorded the lowest number of deaths per capita from the coronavirus is neither restriction-easing Germany nor lockdown-averse Sweden but Slovakia—the Central European country of just 5.4 million people. As of May 6, Slovakia had confirmed 1,429 cases and 25 deaths from COVID-19. If New York City had the same per capita mortality rate from the virus, it would have 40 victims rather than 19,000.
How has Slovakia successfully contained the coronavirus so far? First, let’s dispel the misconceptions. Slovakia hasn’t fared well against the coronavirus because of its isolation. On the contrary, it is very interconnected. Hundreds of thousands of Slovaks work elsewhere in Europe—as daily commuters, seasonal workers, or long-term migrants. For example, more than 20,000 Slovaks commute daily as caregivers for older adults in neighboring Austria, which had a major outbreak. Slovakia’s young people are also more likely to study abroad than those in any other European Union country. According to mobile phone data, about 50,000 Slovaks traveled to coronavirus-stricken northern Italy during the second half of February and early March, but Slovakia didn’t experience its own significant outbreak after they returned.
Nor can Slovakia’s low mortality rate be credited to the quality of its public institutions. Though it is an EU member, Slovakia did not score highly in the 2019 Global Health Security Index, which assesses countries’ capacity to respond to pandemics or similar threats. It ranked 70th in its ability to detect a health security threat and 105th in its ability to respond to such a challenge. By comparison, Germany ranked 10th for detection and 28th for response.
Over the last six weeks, the public has observed what this means in practice. At the beginning of the pandemic, the Slovak public health authorities had limited stocks of personal protective equipment and diagnostic test kits. They also had only a few teams ready to implement testing and contact tracing, though the teams were composed of seasoned civil servants working for the Slovak version of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]
Even now, Slovakia has no mobile tracking app or intelligent quarantine system in place. Among other successful countries, Taiwan had such a system ready even before the pandemic began, and the Czech Republic—initially caught unprepared—put one in place at the end of March. Still, outbreaks appear to be limited primarily to three groups: poor members of the Romani minority living in rural slums, likely spread by individuals returning from the United Kingdom; older adults living in care facilities; and returning migrants and their families. The authorities’ response came quickly—but only after the outbreaks emerged.
Then why isn’t Slovakia overrun by the coronavirus? Experts that I spoke to credit three main factors. The most important was the government’s quick decision to institute a national lockdown effective March 16, 10 days after the country confirmed its first coronavirus case. The lockdown included the closure of all schools, restaurants, bars, and shops except for grocery stores, pharmacies, and banks—as well as a ban on all public events and gatherings. The country also secluded itself by closing all airports and implementing mandatory quarantine for citizens returning from abroad. But unlike in some other countries, physical movement of individuals remained largely unrestricted.
The lockdown measures have only worked because of the second factor: an immediate and universal compliance by the Slovak population. People did what they were told, even though Slovakia is generally plagued by low levels of trust in politicians and the government, according to the European Values Study. Slovaks acted voluntarily without the need for large-scale coercive enforcement. The response by the country’s political elites surely contributed to this compliance. Though Slovakia saw partisan conflict over who was responsible for the lack of preparation, there was no disagreement about the seriousness of the threat or the need for the lockdown itself—unlike in the United States, where federal and state authorities have clashed.
This is where the third factor comes in. More than the functioning of public institutions, experts credit the media as crucial to Slovakia’s success. The universal use of face masks—instituted early despite the dismissive attitude of the World Health Organization—has become a symbol of Slovakia’s response to the coronavirus. A pivotal moment came on March 13, when the anchor of the country’s most popular television program, Zlatica Puskarova, hosted incoming Prime Minister Igor Matovic and his health minister. Puskarova began by asking the government officials why they didn’t lead by example, handing them two face masks. They complied immediately, and from the next day the whole country started making and wearing face protection. Since then, no Slovak politician, news reporter, or celebrity would be seen in public without a mask.
The mainstream media was careful not to denigrate the need to strictly observe the lockdown.
The coronavirus crisis has also increased readership of the more serious media outlets. Fringe and conspiracy sites focused on health issues, usually very popular in Slovakia, ignored the virus altogether for several weeks. This allowed the mainstream media to dominate public discourse. Even when criticizing specific government actions—such as a mismanaged travel ban during the Easter holiday—the mainstream media was careful not to denigrate the need to strictly observe the lockdown.
Slovakia’s TV stations, newspapers, and news websites are a diverse but fragmented bunch operating in a small market. They lack the financial clout or resources of outlets in larger countries. Despite that, many outlets have been able to attract committed and bright reporters motivated by the public interest. The media has played an outsized role in the coronavirus crisis: not just by holding the government accountable but also by quickly disseminating new social norms.
The Slovak government began easing its lockdown measures on April 22, and since the number of new daily infections has remained in the single digits, the authorities opened most shops, restaurants, and hotels on May 6. The situation is far from normal—schools remain closed, and restaurants and bars can only serve patrons outdoors—but Slovaks have celebrated their ability to finally get a haircut by posting selfies of their new coiffures on social media.
While early and decisive action by governments is crucial in fighting the coronavirus, the case of Slovakia shows that media and civil society can compensate for the weakness of public health institutions by forging a consensus to observe the necessary social norms.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-06--Trump’s Virus Origin Theories Could Spark a Beijing Backlash

Welcome to Foreign Policy ’ s weekly China Brief .
The highlights this week : The Trump administration stands by its claim that the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab , Beijing intensifies its rhetoric against Hong Kong ’ s protesters , and how life after lockdown looks in China .
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday , please sign up here .
The Trump administration continues to promote the unverified claim that the coronavirus emerged from a research laboratory in Wuhan , China .
The president hopes to elide responsibility for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ died from COVID-19 in order to win reelection .
But numerous scientific reports confirm that the virus is natural , though the possibility of a biosafety accident can ’ t be ruled out entirely .
The evidence presented by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other officials has been entirely circumstantial , leading to a strong pushback among U.S. allies .
Pompeo has claimed that there is “ enormous evidence ” that the coronavirus came from the lab .
It is highly unlikely this evidence exists—not least because the United States badly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only report the administration has presented came from the Department of Homeland Security , a body that is widely regarded as incompetent on foreign affairs among the intelligence community .
Something to hide ?
One of the arguments made by the Trump administration is that the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) isn ’ t allowing proper investigation into the origins of the coronavirus , so it must have something to hide .
Here ’ s the problem : The CCP behaves this way all the time .
Whatever the origins of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conspiracy theories .
It ’ s possible that the CCP itself doesn ’ t have a clear picture of the origins of the virus .
If it did come from a routine biosafety accident , those involved would have a personal interest in concealing that fact .
Baffled response .
The Chinese response to U.S. allegations has not been particularly heated , but that is in part because China ’ s blame game with the United States was already so intense that there is little room left for escalation .
There have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomatic temperature hasn ’ t yet risen further .
What is worrying is that Beijing might mistake a campaign aimed at domestic political ends for a serious geopolitical challenge .
Reuters reports that internal Chinese documents present Beijing as facing an unprecedented wave of hostility led by the United States and warn of the need to prepare for war .
Hong Kong crackdown .
Under the cover of the pandemic , Beijing is worsening its crackdown in Hong Kong , calling protesters a “ political virus.
” Equating dissent and disease is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prominent in China ’ s campaign of cultural genocide in Xinjiang .
Hong Kongers , proud of their civil-led response to the coronavirus , are unlikely to take the criticism lying down .
Once it ’ s clear that the risk of community contagion has dissipated , expect protesters to flock to the city ’ s streets again—especially as the economy continues its downward slide .
Czech investments .
The state-backed investment company CITIC Group is attempting to buy media influence ( link in Czech ) in the Czech Republic , using the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distressed outlets .
The Czech Republic has been particularly resistant to Chinese influence over the last year , with already strained relations worsened after the Czech prime minister publicly called for China to recall its ambassador following threats to Czech authorities in March .
Praise for Pottinger ?
A speech in Mandarin by U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger received abundant praise from many of those who knew him as a China-based reporter for the Wall Street Journal .
But the Chinese public can distinguish between pleasant rhetoric and action , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a previous era when the small deeds of American officials such as Gary Locke served as effective publicity .
Foreigners banned from livestreams .
Amid growing paranoia about any form of uncontrolled content , Chinese livestreaming sites are warning users that they risk being banned if they include foreign individuals in their videos , especially if they live outside China .
This reflects the fear of the livestreaming sites that censorship officials will use any excuse—such as contact with foreigners—to clamp down .
The clubs are returning .
In a sign of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting to reopen across China , with 61 percent of venues nationwide now open .
The move is all the more remarkable given that the authorities aren ’ t particularly comfortable with such places , which are often the target of crackdowns for supposed links to illegal drugs or prostitution .
Cinema at home .
The Chinese movie industry is still a long way from a return to normal .
Planned reopenings of cinemas have often been canceled the day before out of fears of contagion , and filming seems unlikely to return @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at-home watching options have become even more popular than usual , mirroring patterns around the world .
“ COVID-19 In China : From ‘ Chernobyl Moment ’ to Impetus for Nationalism , ” Made in China Journal This detailed piece by the Chinese social scientist Chenchen Zhang , now based in Europe , shows how what once seemed to be a serious threat to the CCP ’ s legitimacy has been coopted into a successful propaganda exercise .
The long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the party ’ s stability still seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States has certainly given the party considerably more credibility in the eyes of many Chinese .
That ’ s it for this week .
We welcome your feedback at newsletters @ foreignpolicy.com .
You can find older editions of China Brief here .
For more from Foreign Policy , subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: The Trump administration stands by its claim that the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab , Beijing intensifies its rhetoric against Hong Kong’s protesters , and how life after lockdown looks in China.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s weekly China Brief. The highlights this week: The Trump administration stands by its claim that the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab, Beijing intensifies its rhetoric against Hong Kong’s protesters, and how life after lockdown looks in China.
If you would like to receive China Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
United States Pushes Wuhan Lab Claims
The Trump administration continues to promote the unverified claim that the coronavirus emerged from a research laboratory in Wuhan, China. The president hopes to elide responsibility for the tens of thousands of Americans who have died from COVID-19 in order to win reelection. But numerous scientific reports confirm that the virus is natural, though the possibility of a biosafety accident can’t be ruled out entirely.
The evidence presented by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other officials has been entirely circumstantial, leading to a strong pushback among U.S. allies. Pompeo has claimed that there is “enormous evidence” that the coronavirus came from the lab. It is highly unlikely this evidence exists—not least because the United States badly lacks reliable intelligence inside China. The only report the administration has presented came from the Department of Homeland Security, a body that is widely regarded as incompetent on foreign affairs among the intelligence community.
Something to hide? One of the arguments made by the Trump administration is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) isn’t allowing proper investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, so it must have something to hide. Here’s the problem: The CCP behaves this way all the time. Whatever the origins of the coronavirus, the party would refuse access—conjuring conspiracy theories.
It’s possible that the CCP itself doesn’t have a clear picture of the origins of the virus. If it did come from a routine biosafety accident, those involved would have a personal interest in concealing that fact.
Baffled response. The Chinese response to U.S. allegations has not been particularly heated, but that is in part because China’s blame game with the United States was already so intense that there is little room left for escalation. There have been routine editorials against Pompeo, but the diplomatic temperature hasn’t yet risen further.
What is worrying is that Beijing might mistake a campaign aimed at domestic political ends for a serious geopolitical challenge. Reuters reports that internal Chinese documents present Beijing as facing an unprecedented wave of hostility led by the United States and warn of the need to prepare for war.
What’s We’re Following
Hong Kong crackdown. Under the cover of the pandemic, Beijing is worsening its crackdown in Hong Kong, calling protesters a “political virus.” Equating dissent and disease is an old dictatorial tactic and one that is prominent in China’s campaign of cultural genocide in Xinjiang. Hong Kongers, proud of their civil-led response to the coronavirus, are unlikely to take the criticism lying down. Once it’s clear that the risk of community contagion has dissipated, expect protesters to flock to the city’s streets again—especially as the economy continues its downward slide.
Czech investments. The state-backed investment company CITIC Group is attempting to buy media influence (link in Czech) in the Czech Republic, using the economic fallout of the pandemic to acquire distressed outlets. The Czech Republic has been particularly resistant to Chinese influence over the last year, with already strained relations worsened after the Czech prime minister publicly called for China to recall its ambassador following threats to Czech authorities in March.
Praise for Pottinger? A speech in Mandarin by U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger received abundant praise from many of those who knew him as a China-based reporter for the Wall Street Journal. But the Chinese public can distinguish between pleasant rhetoric and action, and the speech was a dud in China—unlike in a previous era when the small deeds of American officials such as Gary Locke served as effective publicity.
Tech and Business
Foreigners banned from livestreams. Amid growing paranoia about any form of uncontrolled content, Chinese livestreaming sites are warning users that they risk being banned if they include foreign individuals in their videos, especially if they live outside China. This reflects the fear of the livestreaming sites that censorship officials will use any excuse—such as contact with foreigners—to clamp down.
The clubs are returning. In a sign of confidence, live venues and bars are starting to reopen across China, with 61 percent of venues nationwide now open. The move is all the more remarkable given that the authorities aren’t particularly comfortable with such places, which are often the target of crackdowns for supposed links to illegal drugs or prostitution.
Cinema at home. The Chinese movie industry is still a long way from a return to normal. Planned reopenings of cinemas have often been canceled the day before out of fears of contagion, and filming seems unlikely to return this year. In response, various at-home watching options have become even more popular than usual, mirroring patterns around the world.
What We’re Reading
“COVID-19 In China: From ‘Chernobyl Moment’ to Impetus for Nationalism,” Made in China Journal
This detailed piece by the Chinese social scientist Chenchen Zhang, now based in Europe, shows how what once seemed to be a serious threat to the CCP’s legitimacy has been coopted into a successful propaganda exercise. The long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the party’s stability still seem negative, but the chaotic failure of the United States has certainly given the party considerably more credibility in the eyes of many Chinese.
That’s it for this week.
We welcome your feedback at newsletters@foreignpolicy.com. You can find older editions of China Brief here. For more from Foreign Policy, subscribe here or sign up for our other newsletters.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-06--America’s Police Prepared for the Wrong Enemy

Last weekend , the New York Police Department ’ s Transit Bureau Chief Edward Delatorre tweeted , “ Some people may disagree – but transporting ziplock bags of marijuana & a digital scale in your backpack does not make you an essential traveler in the eyes of the Transit police .
Hopping a turnstile while doing so didn ’ t help either .
Nice grab by our District 1 team !
” The text was accompanied by an image of four plainclothes officers , their identities clear despite their medical face masks , doing their best imitation of a 1980s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of accountability and tone-deaf messaging from police departments is a serious problem for the public—but it ’ s also a disaster for cops themselves .
I spent eight years in federal law enforcement with the U.S. Coast Guard and another five years as a cybersecurity intelligence analyst for the NYPD .
In all that time , I watched police messaging paired with egregious conduct erode the public support we so desperately needed .
Delatorre ’ s tweet was par for the awful course I witnessed my entire career—an instant public relations disaster .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vast majority of Americans , favor legalizing marijuana , and they reacted with fury that the NYPD was harassing nonviolent offenders in the middle of the worst health crisis in the city ’ s history .
It was yet another failure by a department that , thanks to such incidents as an officer punching a man in the face for violating social distancing and leadership letting problem cops off with a slap on the wrist , has come to symbolize some of the worst of U.S. policing .
Amid a cataclysmic failure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ health during the coronavirus pandemic , the United States has doubled down on authoritarianism and a siege mentality , with cops demanding greater levels of impunity even as they fail to deliver on the basic promise of the social contract Americans make with police—that officers will keep them safe and do them no harm .
In a time where police-public rapport has sunk to unacceptable lows and when police face a new set of challenges as they attempt to negotiate the enforcement of legally uncertain and sometimes unpopular lockdowns , U.S. law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a way forward from a source that ’ s both foundational , and , in the context of today ’ s American policing , surprising : the nine Peelian principles of policing by consent , established by Robert Peel in 1829 when he founded the London Metropolitan Police , the world ’ s first modern police force .
Peel ’ s initial conception for the role of police was primarily a reaction to widespread public distrust of the establishment of a professional police force and was aimed largely at mollifying public concerns and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cooperate with the new professionals he was proposing to place among them .
It is a concept that is intensely relevant today in a country where the killings of Eric Garner , Tamir Rice , Michael Brown , Philando Castile , and many more have gone unpunished .
Much of the public no longer accepts or cooperates with the American police—and for good reason .
Peel ’ s grounding principle was that policing was done “ by consent , ” by which he recognized how intensely outnumbered police forces were in any given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own police force bears stark witness to this—36,000 uniformed officers , no matter how well armed or trained , simply can not police the city ’ s more than 8 million residents if they do not consent to being policed .
Peel rightly recognized that in addition to being grossly outnumbered , police forces would need to rely on the cooperation of the communities where they work , leaning on citizens as their eyes and ears—not only maintaining community standards that help prevent crime but also acting as sources of intelligence to alert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 1937 argument , summarized as that “ the guerrilla must swim in the people as the fish swims in the sea ” applies to criminals , too .
Fish can not live in waters that do not accept them and that cry out to fishermen whenever they are seen .
Peelian principles form the heart of the American community policing movement , which began with the Johnson administration ’ s efforts in the 1960s and is still an important component of policing doctrine today .
But in 2020 , the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community policing have their roots in 1960s efforts to restore fractured relations between police and minority communities .
But they are directly at odds with the post-9/11 hyperpowered American police culture , which expects all the reverence , latitude , and equipment of its military counterparts with none of the fitness standards or accountability to civilian power .
The Johnson administration ’ s efforts to seat police firmly within their communities ( and in minority populations especially ) were radically unwound when an American public , mad with terror after watching the twin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unprecedented powers , culminating in the Patriot Act ’ s gutting of the Fourth Amendment and setting the stage for the transfer of military equipment into civilian police arsenals In post-9/11 panic , Americans ordained a sweeping redefinition of police culture , inculcating an attitude best iconized by the symbol sported by police officers across the country : the “ thin blue line , ” a narrow strip of blue most often shown threading its way across a sea of—not coincidentally—black .
While this mentality certainly predated 9/11 , the terrorist attacks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predominant .
It ’ s the mentality of a force that views itself as under siege—elite warriors , long-suffering under tough conditions and inadequate pay , selflessly risking their lives day in and day out to hold back the tide of crime that would otherwise engulf the country .
St. Louis police officers , their reputation in tatters after the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown and subsequent lack of punishment for the officer who killed him , used the thin blue line symbolism as part of a campaign to push back on an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the department .
This attitude , endemic in policing , is the complete and polar opposite of everything Peel envisioned .
In my own years doing patrol law enforcement with the Coast Guard and defending against cybersecurity threats for the NYPD , I saw this culture firsthand .
I heard it when patrols were told repeatedly that their first priority was to “ make sure everyone comes home alive , ” a benign enough sentiment until you consider that it prioritizes the safety of police officers over and above the people they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ axiom is “ better to be judged by 12 than carried by six.
” These sentiments are hard to swallow to begin with but become surreal when one considers that as of last year policing didn ’ t even make it into the top 10 most dangerous jobs in America , according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics .
Even more troubling was that I heard both quotes repeated verbatim when I trained to deploy to Iraq in the early 2000s .
It was abundantly clear that the mentality of counterterrorism operatives and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ successfully made the leap to police forces on patrol in entirely peaceful civilian communities in the United States .
But in addition to Peel ’ s principles giving police a road map to restoring relationships with the public that will make their jobs easier and more successful , they also provide a stark warning : Consent , once given , may also be revoked .
If Peel ’ s words are the carrot , then Mao ’ s statement is the stick : When the sea of the people despises the police enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would otherwise turn in .
Police officers do not want to be patrolling a public that does not accept their authority , that will not cooperate , that is inimically hostile .
When consent is withdrawn , the job becomes worse than impossible—it becomes dangerous .
Even with the military hardware U.S. police have amassed , they are so grossly outnumbered by the public that real and systemic hostility to police will absolutely begin to jeopardize officer safety .
This is why we should all be concerned about Delatorre ’ s tweet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in and of itself , but because of how it symbolizes the tone-deaf disconnect between police and the public they supposedly serve .
Officer Daniel Pantaleo ’ s was only fired five years after he killed Eric Garner .
Despite being clearly too little and much , much too late , the firing triggered an explosion of petulant outcry from the NYPD ’ s rank and file , including a thinly veiled threat from Police Benevolent Association President Patrick Lynch .
Lynch later presided over a vote of no confidence in both the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commissioner and demanded they resign , largely over what he called the “ unjust ” firing of Pantaleo .
The following month brought a viral video that showed NYPD officers joking about the death throes of a suspect they ’ d just shot dead .
“ That ’ s one less asshole to sue us , ” one of the officers said .
With each of these reports , the public ’ s consent to be policed is eroded , and Mao ’ s warning echoes a little louder .
In the grip @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police suddenly find they are not the besieged warfighters they ’ ve portrayed themselves as , but public health professionals tasked with enforcing a range of new provisions—social distancing , mandatory mask-wearing , and , most important of all , tackling a climate of fear and unease .
More than ever , the police need public rapport to ensure critical measures are followed even when enforcement patrols aren ’ t there to oversee them .
If public outcry isn ’ t enough to make cops care , then perhaps self-interest might .
Police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be concerned about how their representatives mishandle their message—their ability to do their jobs not only effectively , but also safely , may depend on a public finally seeing the police who serve them as actually being on their side .

Last weekend, the New York Police Department’s Transit Bureau Chief Edward Delatorre tweeted , “Some people may disagree - but transporting ziplock bags of marijuana & a digital scale in your backpack does not make you an essential traveler in the eyes of the Transit police. Hopping a turnstile while doing so didn’t help either. Nice grab by our District 1 team!” The text was accompanied by an image of four plainclothes officers, their identities clear despite their medical face masks, doing their best imitation of a 1980s rock album cover pose.
Last weekend, the New York Police Department’s Transit Bureau Chief Edward Delatorre tweeted, “Some people may disagree – but transporting ziplock bags of marijuana & a digital scale in your backpack does not make you an essential traveler in the eyes of the Transit police. Hopping a turnstile while doing so didn’t help either. Nice grab by our District 1 team!” The text was accompanied by an image of four plainclothes officers, their identities clear despite their medical face masks, doing their best imitation of a 1980s rock album cover pose.
This lack of accountability and tone-deaf messaging from police departments is a serious problem for the public—but it’s also a disaster for cops themselves. I spent eight years in federal law enforcement with the U.S. Coast Guard and another five years as a cybersecurity intelligence analyst for the NYPD. In all that time, I watched police messaging paired with egregious conduct erode the public support we so desperately needed.
Delatorre’s tweet was par for the awful course I witnessed my entire career—an instant public relations disaster. The majority of New Yorkers, like the vast majority of Americans, favor legalizing marijuana, and they reacted with fury that the NYPD was harassing nonviolent offenders in the middle of the worst health crisis in the city’s history. It was yet another failure by a department that, thanks to such incidents as an officer punching a man in the face for violating social distancing and leadership letting problem cops off with a slap on the wrist, has come to symbolize some of the worst of U.S. policing. Amid a cataclysmic failure by the state to protect its citizens’ health during the coronavirus pandemic, the United States has doubled down on authoritarianism and a siege mentality, with cops demanding greater levels of impunity even as they fail to deliver on the basic promise of the social contract Americans make with police—that officers will keep them safe and do them no harm.
In a time where police-public rapport has sunk to unacceptable lows and when police face a new set of challenges as they attempt to negotiate the enforcement of legally uncertain and sometimes unpopular lockdowns, U.S. law enforcement can find both a warning and a way forward from a source that’s both foundational, and, in the context of today’s American policing, surprising: the nine Peelian principles of policing by consent, established by Robert Peel in 1829 when he founded the London Metropolitan Police, the world’s first modern police force.
Peel’s initial conception for the role of police was primarily a reaction to widespread public distrust of the establishment of a professional police force and was aimed largely at mollifying public concerns and ensuring that people would both accept and cooperate with the new professionals he was proposing to place among them. It is a concept that is intensely relevant today in a country where the killings of Eric Garner, Tamir Rice, Michael Brown, Philando Castile, and many more have gone unpunished. Much of the public no longer accepts or cooperates with the American police—and for good reason.
Peel’s grounding principle was that policing was done “by consent,” by which he recognized how intensely outnumbered police forces were in any given community. New York City’s own police force bears stark witness to this—36,000 uniformed officers, no matter how well armed or trained, simply cannot police the city’s more than 8 million residents if they do not consent to being policed. Peel rightly recognized that in addition to being grossly outnumbered, police forces would need to rely on the cooperation of the communities where they work, leaning on citizens as their eyes and ears—not only maintaining community standards that help prevent crime but also acting as sources of intelligence to alert police when crimes occur. Mao Zedong’s 1937 argument, summarized as that “the guerrilla must swim in the people as the fish swims in the sea” applies to criminals, too. Fish cannot live in waters that do not accept them and that cry out to fishermen whenever they are seen.
Peelian principles form the heart of the American community policing movement, which began with the Johnson administration’s efforts in the 1960s and is still an important component of policing doctrine today. But in 2020, the idea appears increasingly theoretical. The fundamentals of community policing have their roots in 1960s efforts to restore fractured relations between police and minority communities. But they are directly at odds with the post-9/11 hyperpowered American police culture, which expects all the reverence, latitude, and equipment of its military counterparts with none of the fitness standards or accountability to civilian power.
The Johnson administration’s efforts to seat police firmly within their communities (and in minority populations especially) were radically unwound when an American public, mad with terror after watching the twin towers collapse, agreed to grant police unprecedented powers, culminating in the Patriot Act’s gutting of the Fourth Amendment and setting the stage for the transfer of military equipment into civilian police arsenals
In post-9/11 panic, Americans ordained a sweeping redefinition of police culture, inculcating an attitude best iconized by the symbol sported by police officers across the country: the “thin blue line,” a narrow strip of blue most often shown threading its way across a sea of—not coincidentally—black. While this mentality certainly predated 9/11, the terrorist attacks and the subsequent latitude afforded police made it predominant. It’s the mentality of a force that views itself as under siege—elite warriors, long-suffering under tough conditions and inadequate pay, selflessly risking their lives day in and day out to hold back the tide of crime that would otherwise engulf the country. St. Louis police officers, their reputation in tatters after the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown and subsequent lack of punishment for the officer who killed him, used the thin blue line symbolism as part of a campaign to push back on an investigation into racism and police conduct in the department.
This attitude, endemic in policing, is the complete and polar opposite of everything Peel envisioned. In my own years doing patrol law enforcement with the Coast Guard and defending against cybersecurity threats for the NYPD, I saw this culture firsthand. I heard it when patrols were told repeatedly that their first priority was to “make sure everyone comes home alive,” a benign enough sentiment until you consider that it prioritizes the safety of police officers over and above the people they are sworn to protect. The other common axiom is “better to be judged by 12 than carried by six.” These sentiments are hard to swallow to begin with but become surreal when one considers that as of last year policing didn’t even make it into the top 10 most dangerous jobs in America, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even more troubling was that I heard both quotes repeated verbatim when I trained to deploy to Iraq in the early 2000s. It was abundantly clear that the mentality of counterterrorism operatives and warfighters deploying to a war zone had successfully made the leap to police forces on patrol in entirely peaceful civilian communities in the United States.
But in addition to Peel’s principles giving police a road map to restoring relationships with the public that will make their jobs easier and more successful, they also provide a stark warning: Consent, once given, may also be revoked. If Peel’s words are the carrot, then Mao’s statement is the stick: When the sea of the people despises the police enough, they become hospitable to the criminals they would otherwise turn in. Police officers do not want to be patrolling a public that does not accept their authority, that will not cooperate, that is inimically hostile.
When consent is withdrawn, the job becomes worse than impossible—it becomes dangerous. Even with the military hardware U.S. police have amassed, they are so grossly outnumbered by the public that real and systemic hostility to police will absolutely begin to jeopardize officer safety.
This is why we should all be concerned about Delatorre’s tweet. Not because it is so egregious in and of itself, but because of how it symbolizes the tone-deaf disconnect between police and the public they supposedly serve.
Officer Daniel Pantaleo’s was only fired five years after he killed Eric Garner. Despite being clearly too little and much, much too late, the firing triggered an explosion of petulant outcry from the NYPD’s rank and file, including a thinly veiled threat from Police Benevolent Association President Patrick Lynch. Lynch later presided over a vote of no confidence in both the mayor and the NYPD’s police commissioner and demanded they resign, largely over what he called the “unjust” firing of Pantaleo. The following month brought a viral video that showed NYPD officers joking about the death throes of a suspect they’d just shot dead. “That’s one less asshole to sue us,” one of the officers said.
With each of these reports, the public’s consent to be policed is eroded, and Mao’s warning echoes a little louder.
In the grip of the new pandemic reality, the police suddenly find they are not the besieged warfighters they’ve portrayed themselves as, but public health professionals tasked with enforcing a range of new provisions—social distancing, mandatory mask-wearing, and, most important of all, tackling a climate of fear and unease. More than ever, the police need public rapport to ensure critical measures are followed even when enforcement patrols aren’t there to oversee them.
If public outcry isn’t enough to make cops care, then perhaps self-interest might. Police officers, more than anyone, should be concerned about how their representatives mishandle their message—their ability to do their jobs not only effectively, but also safely, may depend on a public finally seeing the police who serve them as actually being on their side.


foreignpolicy--2020-05-06--For the Taliban, the Pandemic Is a Ladder

For the Taliban , the Pandemic Is a Ladder In late March , the Taliban released an unusual video .
Instead of the usual imagery of fighters in formation or training , the footage showed members of the Islamist group in surgical masks as they conducted door-to-door temperature checks and distributed hand sanitizer .
A heavily accented voice-over in English promised that the Taliban health commission had the pandemic under control .
The narrator claimed that the Taliban had established public health information teams , a dispensary campaign , and even quarantine centers .
This is but one example in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and restrictions the Taliban have undertaken in response to the unfolding global crisis .
Several weeks prior , the Taliban announced that returnees from Iran , where the virus was then rapidly spreading , would be forced to quarantine in their homes for two weeks .
The Afghan government , by contrast , was facing growing criticism for having taken little action to screen the 15,000 people entering its borders each day .
Insurgents typically excel at exploiting state weaknesses and crises .
The counterinsurgency theorist David Kilcullen argues that such groups , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the incumbent government , only have to appear to be less incompetent and marginally more responsive to generate legitimacy .
Appear is the operative word .
The New York Times reports that Taliban officials summoned health workers and journalists to a meeting in the eastern province of Nangarhar , where a medical worker in a full protective suit displayed a thermometer gun .
On closer inspection , however , the device turned out to be a prop taped together from scraps of plastic and wood.Media coverage of the pandemic has featured numerous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus .
Media coverage of the pandemic has featured numerous accounts of armed groups taking action against the coronavirus—or at least finding ways to capitalize on it .
The National Liberation Army ( ELN ) in Colombia announced lockdown measures , preemptively justifying abuses against civilians by warning that the fighters may feel “ forced to kill people in order to preserve lives ” where they have not “ respected the orders to prevent COVID-19.
” Al-Shabab in Somalia and the Houthis in Yemen have blamed the spread of infections locally on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issued sharia directives on hand-washing and preventing transmission but has also suggested the disease is divine punishment .
Pictures have circulated of drug cartels in Mexico distributing medical supplies ; MS-13 in El Salvador reportedly enforced a curfew ; and a gang in Rio de Janeiro warned that “ if the government is unable to manage , organized crime resolves [ the problem ] .
” [ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic . ]
One analyst recently warned that weak state responses to the virus could help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as competent public servants.
” This overestimates the capacity of most armed groups .
While terrorists and criminal gangs are well equipped to exploit the pandemic for propaganda or coercive purposes , they are woefully unprepared to respond to an actual health crisis—let alone the wider ripple effects on the economy and other sectors .
Even if they create shadow governments or routinely capture aid projects and state services , few armed groups have the skills or expertise to provide health services all on their own .
( Hezbollah , which has mobilized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus in Lebanon , is a rare exception . )
Wealthy and well-prepared nations have struggled to implement effective pandemic responses .
If even the world ’ s most advanced health care systems have been quickly overwhelmed by the speed of the coronavirus ’ s spread , how will those in the most fragile and violent contexts cope ?
Ultimately , civilians living under the control of armed groups will disproportionately suffer .
Violence limits access to health care , strains supply chains , and spurs health professionals to flee for safer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off from health services , and the disruption can be so severe that local health systems collapse .
Recent data suggests that a third of Kabul ’ s population is already infected with the coronavirus , and the Afghan government estimates that 110,000 people could eventually die .
A diplomat I spoke to privately estimated that the toll could be closer to six times that amount but doubted that we would ever know the actual count given the general lack of access to health care and poor data on deaths in the country.Weak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ terrorist groups to cement a reputation as competent public servants.
” When the United Nations called for an immediate global cease-fire on April 2 , armed groups in Cameroon , the Central African Republic , Colombia , Libya , Myanmar , the Philippines , South Sudan , Syria , Ukraine , and Yemen declared that they would temporarily stop fighting to facilitate a response to the pandemic .
While these pledges may have reduced fighting in some places , most declarations were unilateral and never matched in commitments from other conflict parties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Colombia , the ELN ended its cease-fire pledge with recriminations when the government failed to reciprocate .
Two of the agreed multilateral cease-fires , in Libya and Yemen , were quickly breached .
A temporary truce between the Philippine government and the New People ’ s Army expired in April and descended into mutual accusations of manipulation and violations .
In Afghanistan , the Taliban have long refused demands for a cease-fire—at least against local forces—and the pandemic hasn ’ t altered their stance .
On the contrary , the Taliban have increased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Afghan Ministry of Public Health has warned that health workers will not be able to do their jobs , and civilians will not be able to access services , if violence continues to escalate .
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahed said the group would initiate a cease-fire in affected regions “ if , God forbid , the outbreak happens in an area where we control.
” But this has already happened : The Taliban control vast swaths of Herat province , the epicenter of Afghanistan ’ s outbreak .
Yet the U.S. government and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for their efforts to raise awareness and facilitate health work .
There is a strong and deeply hopeful narrative that disasters and emergencies can provide openings for peace .
Some disasters have created new avenues to end conflicts , such as the negotiated peace in Aceh that followed the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami .
But such occurrences are rare .
Some analysts suggest that the pandemic is deepening polarization , while others caution that it may increase the risk of miscalculation and conflict escalation .
It is essential to continue to push for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sad reality is that it is unlikely to help many millions of civilians living under the control of armed groups.The Taliban will likely continue to exploit the pandemic for their own ends .
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has rightly urged global unity in mobilizing “ every ounce of energy ” to defeat the pandemic .
This must include more robust efforts to talk to armed actors about their obligations to stop the spread of the virus .
The world needs to do this regardless of whether these groups are terrorists or criminals or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the short term .
This dialogue may lead to humanitarian pauses in fighting , but it might also mean negotiating safe passage guarantees for health workers , encouraging coordination with government health care entities , or merely talking to armed groups about appropriate health messaging .
If they control territory and aspire to some form of legitimacy , they have an essential role to play in lessening the pandemic ’ s toll—one for which they must also be held to account .
In Afghanistan , humanitarian engagement may prove more productive than the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Aid donors and agencies would do well to openly acknowledge that the insurgency has an essential role to play and call on it to take concrete , specific actions to halt the virus ’ s spread and facilitate health work .
If they refuse to cooperate , however , the Taliban must be publicly criticized for their complicity in the deaths that are sure to follow .
In the absence of such an effort , the Taliban will likely continue to exploit the pandemic for their own ends—at least until the crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may start to take it more seriously once their own people begin to die , but by then it will be too late .

In late March, the Taliban released an unusual video . Instead of the usual imagery of fighters in formation or training, the footage showed members of the Islamist group in surgical masks as they conducted door-to-door temperature checks and distributed hand sanitizer. A heavily accented voice-over in English promised that the Taliban health commission had the pandemic under control. The narrator claimed that the Taliban had established public health information teams, a dispensary campaign, and even quarantine centers.
In late March, the Taliban released an unusual video. Instead of the usual imagery of fighters in formation or training, the footage showed members of the Islamist group in surgical masks as they conducted door-to-door temperature checks and distributed hand sanitizer. A heavily accented voice-over in English promised that the Taliban health commission had the pandemic under control. The narrator claimed that the Taliban had established public health information teams, a dispensary campaign, and even quarantine centers.
This is but one example in a string of videos, announcements, and restrictions the Taliban have undertaken in response to the unfolding global crisis. Several weeks prior, the Taliban announced that returnees from Iran, where the virus was then rapidly spreading, would be forced to quarantine in their homes for two weeks. The Afghan government, by contrast, was facing growing criticism for having taken little action to screen the 15,000 people entering its borders each day.
Insurgents typically excel at exploiting state weaknesses and crises. The counterinsurgency theorist David Kilcullen argues that such groups, locked in a battle for competitive control with the incumbent government, only have to appear to be less incompetent and marginally more responsive to generate legitimacy. Appear is the operative word. The New York Times reports that Taliban officials summoned health workers and journalists to a meeting in the eastern province of Nangarhar, where a medical worker in a full protective suit displayed a thermometer gun. On closer inspection, however, the device turned out to be a prop taped together from scraps of plastic and wood.Media coverage of the pandemic has featured numerous accounts of armed groups taking action against the coronavirus.
Media coverage of the pandemic has featured numerous accounts of armed groups taking action against the coronavirus—or at least finding ways to capitalize on it. The National Liberation Army (ELN) in Colombia announced lockdown measures, preemptively justifying abuses against civilians by warning that the fighters may feel “forced to kill people in order to preserve lives” where they have not “respected the orders to prevent COVID-19.” Al-Shabab in Somalia and the Houthis in Yemen have blamed the spread of infections locally on their battlefield adversaries. The Islamic State issued sharia directives on hand-washing and preventing transmission but has also suggested the disease is divine punishment. Pictures have circulated of drug cartels in Mexico distributing medical supplies; MS-13 in El Salvador reportedly enforced a curfew; and a gang in Rio de Janeiro warned that “if the government is unable to manage, organized crime resolves [the problem].”
One analyst recently warned that weak state responses to the virus could help “terrorist groups to cement a reputation as competent public servants.” This overestimates the capacity of most armed groups. While terrorists and criminal gangs are well equipped to exploit the pandemic for propaganda or coercive purposes, they are woefully unprepared to respond to an actual health crisis—let alone the wider ripple effects on the economy and other sectors. Even if they create shadow governments or routinely capture aid projects and state services, few armed groups have the skills or expertise to provide health services all on their own. (Hezbollah, which has mobilized thousands of medical staff in response to the virus in Lebanon, is a rare exception.)
Wealthy and well-prepared nations have struggled to implement effective pandemic responses. If even the world’s most advanced health care systems have been quickly overwhelmed by the speed of the coronavirus’s spread, how will those in the most fragile and violent contexts cope? Ultimately, civilians living under the control of armed groups will disproportionately suffer. Violence limits access to health care, strains supply chains, and spurs health professionals to flee for safer areas. Entire communities can be cut off from health services, and the disruption can be so severe that local health systems collapse. Recent data suggests that a third of Kabul’s population is already infected with the coronavirus, and the Afghan government estimates that 110,000 people could eventually die. A diplomat I spoke to privately estimated that the toll could be closer to six times that amount but doubted that we would ever know the actual count given the general lack of access to health care and poor data on deaths in the country.Weak state responses to the virus could help “terrorist groups to cement a reputation as competent public servants.”
When the United Nations called for an immediate global cease-fire on April 2, armed groups in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Colombia, Libya, Myanmar, the Philippines, South Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen declared that they would temporarily stop fighting to facilitate a response to the pandemic. While these pledges may have reduced fighting in some places, most declarations were unilateral and never matched in commitments from other conflict parties required to stop the fighting. In Colombia, the ELN ended its cease-fire pledge with recriminations when the government failed to reciprocate. Two of the agreed multilateral cease-fires, in Libya and Yemen, were quickly breached. A temporary truce between the Philippine government and the New People’s Army expired in April and descended into mutual accusations of manipulation and violations.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban have long refused demands for a cease-fire—at least against local forces—and the pandemic hasn’t altered their stance. On the contrary, the Taliban have increased their attacks in recent weeks. The Afghan Ministry of Public Health has warned that health workers will not be able to do their jobs, and civilians will not be able to access services, if violence continues to escalate. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahed said the group would initiate a cease-fire in affected regions “if, God forbid, the outbreak happens in an area where we control.” But this has already happened: The Taliban control vast swaths of Herat province, the epicenter of Afghanistan’s outbreak. Yet the U.S. government and Afghan health ministry publicly praised the Taliban for their efforts to raise awareness and facilitate health work.
There is a strong and deeply hopeful narrative that disasters and emergencies can provide openings for peace. Some disasters have created new avenues to end conflicts, such as the negotiated peace in Aceh that followed the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. But such occurrences are rare. Some analysts suggest that the pandemic is deepening polarization, while others caution that it may increase the risk of miscalculation and conflict escalation. It is essential to continue to push for a worldwide humanitarian pause, but the sad reality is that it is unlikely to help many millions of civilians living under the control of armed groups.The Taliban will likely continue to exploit the pandemic for their own ends.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has rightly urged global unity in mobilizing “every ounce of energy” to defeat the pandemic. This must include more robust efforts to talk to armed actors about their obligations to stop the spread of the virus. The world needs to do this regardless of whether these groups are terrorists or criminals or whether doing so might legitimate them in the short term. This dialogue may lead to humanitarian pauses in fighting, but it might also mean negotiating safe passage guarantees for health workers, encouraging coordination with government health care entities, or merely talking to armed groups about appropriate health messaging. If they control territory and aspire to some form of legitimacy, they have an essential role to play in lessening the pandemic’s toll—one for which they must also be held to account.
In Afghanistan, humanitarian engagement may prove more productive than the political pressure strategy focused on a cease-fire. Aid donors and agencies would do well to openly acknowledge that the insurgency has an essential role to play and call on it to take concrete, specific actions to halt the virus’s spread and facilitate health work. If they refuse to cooperate, however, the Taliban must be publicly criticized for their complicity in the deaths that are sure to follow.
In the absence of such an effort, the Taliban will likely continue to exploit the pandemic for their own ends—at least until the crisis begins to affect them directly. They may start to take it more seriously once their own people begin to die, but by then it will be too late.