foreignpolicy--2020-11-03--America Votes as Austria Reels from a Terrorist Attack

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : voting in the 2020 U.S. presidential election ends , but the wait for results might drag on , Vienna suffers a terrorist attack , and police arrest Tanzanian opposition leaders .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Speaking to reporters in Charlottesville on Monday , Trump said that as soon as polls close on election day , “ we ’ re going in with our lawyers , ” a strategy that has not yet yielded concrete results .
On Monday , a judge rejected a Republican-led request to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas at drive-in voting locations in a largely Democratic-leaning county .
A poll by CNBC/Change Research , one of the last major polls released before the election , showed former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of Trump by a 50 percent to 46 percent margin across all six swing states .
In Arizona , Florida , and North Carolina , Biden ’ s lead was just 3 percent over Trump .
When will we know the result ( or should I just go to bed ? )
The decentralized U.S. election system means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from state to state and many are not planning to announce preliminary results until Wednesday .
The New York Times has a helpful tracker on when to expect results from each state .
Texas , a state that has become too close to call , is expected to make a projection on election night .
In Florida , results of early voting ( expected to favor Democrats ) will be known by 8:30 p.m .
ET .
Not just the presidency .
A third of U.S. Senate seats and all of the seats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up for grabs today .
FP ’ s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer broke down the key races to watch in the foreign-policy world .
Watch along with FP .
On Election Night and throughout Election Day , Foreign Policy will be hosting a pop-up election live blog providing round-the-clock coverage , with short dispatches from FP correspondents and analysis from around the world .
It ’ s already begun , catch up here .
Terror in Vienna .
At least four people are dead and 15 have been injured following a terrorist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at six locations across the city .
One of the attackers was killed by police .
Austrian authorities have not divulged how many assailants were involved , nor have they said what may have motivated the attack .
Austrians—who are due to begin a partial coronavirus-related lockdown today—have been asked to stay indoors while the remaining attackers are at large .
“ We are still in battle against the would-be terrorists , ” Interior Minister Karl Nehammer told Austrian radio .
Tanzanian government rounds up opposition .
Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by regional police on Monday .
Lissu ’ s arrest came hours after authorities had detained other opposition figures , including the chairman of opposition party Chadema .
Police in Dar es Salaam said the opposition leaders were trying to organize demonstrations against the government and that those arrested “ admitted that they were organizing criminal activities such as setting petrol stations , markets , vehicles and some government offices on fire.
” Lissu has called on the Tanzanian government to end its “ tyrannical behaviour.
” Islamic State claims Kabul attack At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further 22 wounded after Islamic State militants attacked Kabul University on Monday morning .
It is the second attack claimed by the Islamic State in Kabul in the space of a week : 24 students were killed and more than 100 were wounded after an attack on a tutoring center on Oct. 24 .
Writing in Foreign Policy , Stefanie Glinski reported from Kabul on Monday ’ s grisly attack and heard first-hand from some of the survivors .
Zelensky awaits key parliamentary vote .
The Ukrainian parliament votes today on whether to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Volodymyr Zelensky ’ s anti-corruption measures .
Zelensky has portrayed the vote as integral to Ukraine ’ s future , saying IMF loans and a deal with the European Union on visa-free travel depend on the measure passing .
If it does not pass , it ’ s possible that Zelensky will dissolve parliament and call snap elections .
On Monday , he wrote on Twitter , “ Whether the Verkhovna Rada [ parliament ] will continue to work will depend on the conclusions made by our deputies.
” Fires in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Brazil ’ s Amazon rainforest has increased by 25 percent compared to last year , and there were twice as many fires during the month of October than in the same month in 2019 .
Environmental group WWF-Brasil blamed the jump in fires on the government of President Jair Bolsonaro .
“ With the rate of deforestation increasing in recent years , the government has ignored the warnings of researchers : deforestation and forest fires go together , ” WWF-Brasil ’ s Mariana Napolitano said .
Oman to bring in income taxes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income tax on top earners , beginning in 2022 , in what would be a first for Gulf nations .
The move comes as Oman attempts to narrow its budget deficit from 19 percent of GDP today , to closer to 2 percent in four years ’ time .
Up until now , Oman , Saudi Arabia , and the United Arab Emirates , have been taxing their populations slowly , using a value-added tax on purchases rather than taxing income .
Omani authorities have not stated which income bands will be taxed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with conquering American shores , the Korean cultural wave ( or “ Hallyu ” ) has hit India .
The popularity of Korean cultural products is surging : K-pop megastars BTS have jumped 60 slots to number eight on the JioSaavn music streaming service and Indian traffic to a Korean television streaming service has increased by 46 percent .
There has also been an explosion in the number of Indians wishing to learn Korean .
According to the language app Duolingo , the number of Indian users learning Korean on the app has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: voting in the 2020 U.S. presidential election ends, but the wait for results might drag on, Vienna suffers a terrorist attack , and police arrest Tanzanian opposition leaders.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: voting in the 2020 U.S. presidential election ends, but the wait for results might drag on, Vienna suffers a terrorist attack, and police arrest Tanzanian opposition leaders.
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A Long Day of Voting and Long Weeks of Counting Ahead Polling stations are opening across the United States this morning in the final day of voting in the U.S. presidential election and, although we may not know the full outcome for weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have already given up on a clean victory.
Speaking to reporters in Charlottesville on Monday, Trump said that as soon as polls close on election day, “we’re going in with our lawyers,” a strategy that has not yet yielded concrete results. On Monday, a judge rejected a Republican-led request to toss out nearly 127,000 votes cast in Texas at drive-in voting locations in a largely Democratic-leaning county.
A poll by CNBC/Change Research, one of the last major polls released before the election, showed former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of Trump by a 50 percent to 46 percent margin across all six swing states. In Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, Biden’s lead was just 3 percent over Trump.
When will we know the result (or should I just go to bed?) The decentralized U.S. election system means that the speed of election returns varies from state to state and many are not planning to announce preliminary results until Wednesday. The New York Times has a helpful tracker on when to expect results from each state. Texas, a state that has become too close to call, is expected to make a projection on election night. In Florida, results of early voting (expected to favor Democrats) will be known by 8:30 p.m. ET.
Not just the presidency. A third of U.S. Senate seats and all of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for grabs today. FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer broke down the key races to watch in the foreign-policy world.
Watch along with FP. On Election Night and throughout Election Day, Foreign Policy will be hosting a pop-up election live blog providing round-the-clock coverage, with short dispatches from FP correspondents and analysis from around the world. It’s already begun, catch up here.
What We’re Following Today
Terror in Vienna. At least four people are dead and 15 have been injured following a terrorist attack in downtown Vienna involving multiple gunmen at six locations across the city. One of the attackers was killed by police. Austrian authorities have not divulged how many assailants were involved, nor have they said what may have motivated the attack. Austrians—who are due to begin a partial coronavirus-related lockdown today—have been asked to stay indoors while the remaining attackers are at large. “We are still in battle against the would-be terrorists,” Interior Minister Karl Nehammer told Austrian radio.
Tanzanian government rounds up opposition. Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu has been released from detention after being arrested by regional police on Monday. Lissu’s arrest came hours after authorities had detained other opposition figures, including the chairman of opposition party Chadema. Police in Dar es Salaam said the opposition leaders were trying to organize demonstrations against the government and that those arrested “admitted that they were organizing criminal activities such as setting petrol stations, markets, vehicles and some government offices on fire.” Lissu has called on the Tanzanian government to end its “tyrannical behaviour.”
Islamic State claims Kabul attack At least 22 people were killed and a further 22 wounded after Islamic State militants attacked Kabul University on Monday morning. It is the second attack claimed by the Islamic State in Kabul in the space of a week: 24 students were killed and more than 100 were wounded after an attack on a tutoring center on Oct. 24. Writing in Foreign Policy, Stefanie Glinski reported from Kabul on Monday’s grisly attack and heard first-hand from some of the survivors.
Zelensky awaits key parliamentary vote. The Ukrainian parliament votes today on whether to dissolve a constitutional court that had blocked President Volodymyr Zelensky’s anti-corruption measures. Zelensky has portrayed the vote as integral to Ukraine’s future, saying IMF loans and a deal with the European Union on visa-free travel depend on the measure passing. If it does not pass, it’s possible that Zelensky will dissolve parliament and call snap elections. On Monday, he wrote on Twitter, “Whether the Verkhovna Rada [parliament] will continue to work will depend on the conclusions made by our deputies.”
Keep an Eye On
Fires in the Amazon. The number of fires recorded in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has increased by 25 percent compared to last year, and there were twice as many fires during the month of October than in the same month in 2019. Environmental group WWF-Brasil blamed the jump in fires on the government of President Jair Bolsonaro. “With the rate of deforestation increasing in recent years, the government has ignored the warnings of researchers: deforestation and forest fires go together,” WWF-Brasil’s Mariana Napolitano said.
Oman to bring in income taxes. Oman is planning to introduce an income tax on top earners, beginning in 2022, in what would be a first for Gulf nations. The move comes as Oman attempts to narrow its budget deficit from 19 percent of GDP today, to closer to 2 percent in four years’ time. Up until now, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have been taxing their populations slowly, using a value-added tax on purchases rather than taxing income. Omani authorities have not stated which income bands will be taxed and at what rate.
Odds and Ends
Not content with conquering American shores, the Korean cultural wave (or “Hallyu”) has hit India. The popularity of Korean cultural products is surging: K-pop megastars BTS have jumped 60 slots to number eight on the JioSaavn music streaming service and Indian traffic to a Korean television streaming service has increased by 46 percent. There has also been an explosion in the number of Indians wishing to learn Korean. According to the language app Duolingo, the number of Indian users learning Korean on the app has shot up 256 percent since the pandemic began.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-03--Has Trump Been Good for Israel?

Has Trump Been Good for Israel?

Has Trump Been Good for Israel ?
JERUSALEM—Few countries have been as invested in Donald Trump ’ s presidency as Israel , where a recent survey found that Israelis favor the incumbent by an almost 45 percent margin .
( Conversely , only 27 percent of American Jews are expected to vote for Trump , who divulged in August that “ the evangelicals are more excited … than Jewish people ” about elements of his Israel strategy . )
That said , an answer to the proverbial question of whether Trump has been “ good for Israel ” remains elusive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strained to maintain constructive relations with the Trump administration , Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to stay high atop the president ’ s short list of favorite allies over the past four years .
Now , after having been a conspicuous beneficiary of U.S. diplomatic bounty throughout Trump ’ s tenure , Israel is bracing for the impact of what could soon be a different reality .
Much of what Trump has bestowed on Israel has been rhetorical or symbolic in nature .
In December 2017 , Trump extended official U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israel , and in May 2018 , a new U.S. Embassy was unveiled in the city .
In 2019 , Trump signed a presidential proclamation affording recognition of Israel ’ s sovereignty over the Golan Heights , and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed a declaration that the “ establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.
” Last week , Pompeo announced that Israeli citizens born in Jerusalem could now elect to list their place of birth as “ Israel ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Abraham Accords , which normalized Israel ’ s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain , formalized and expanded an entente that had been fast-tracked already amid the dangers of an ascendant Iran .
Trump ’ s determination—and sweeteners that he may have provided—to close this deal and a subsequent one with Sudan appears to have played a pivotal role as well .
More importantly for Israel , this newly tailored diplomatic paradigm has effectively revoked a de facto Palestinian “ veto over peace and progress in our region , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a new cohort of Arab states prepared suddenly to reach agreements with Israel despite the stalemate in its conflict with the Palestinians .
On the flipside , Israel has not been spared tangible fallout from Trump ’ s erratic conduct of global affairs .
In May 2017 , an indiscreet Trump raised hackles in Israel when he shared privileged Israeli intelligence with Russia .
Israeli defense officials are sounding the alarm that , after consenting to deliver the F-35 stealth fighter to the UAE , Trump—ever the transactional figure—could also prove amenable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israel ’ s qualitative military edge .
And on Iran , the premier external threat to Israel , Trump ’ s America First policy has often meant America alone : Trump ’ s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposition of tough prohibitions on Tehran notwithstanding , a diminished United States has been unsuccessful at persuading its former great-power partners to activate snapback sanctions against an emboldened Iran .
Israelis should prepare for the return of a more measured approach that features greater understanding of Palestinian viewpoints and a renewed push for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would likely see the continuation of these countervailing trends , with the United States acquiescing to Israeli unilateralism while continuing to step back from active involvement in the Middle East .
( Russia could perhaps maneuver , as it has in Syria , to fill that vacuum . )
The laconic foreign-policy agenda that Trump has proposed for a second term offers no hint of new directions .
But things will almost certainly change for Israel if pollsters are correct and Joe Biden captures the White House .
Committed to restoring traditional U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new Democratic administration will be more inclined to work by international consensus .
Israel ’ s position as a valued wingman of the United States will not be in jeopardy—Biden has so far rebuffed efforts by progressives to circumscribe the U.S. friendship with Israel—but Israelis should prepare for the return of a more measured approach that features , among other things , greater understanding for Palestinian viewpoints and a renewed push for compromise with Iran .

JERUSALEM—Few countries have been as invested in Donald Trump’s presidency as Israel, where a recent survey found that Israelis favor the incumbent by an almost 45 percent margin. (Conversely, only 27 percent of American Jews are expected to vote for Trump, who divulged in August that “the evangelicals are more excited … than Jewish people” about elements of his Israel strategy.) That said, an answer to the proverbial question of whether Trump has been “good for Israel” remains elusive.
JERUSALEM—Few countries have been as invested in Donald Trump’s presidency as Israel, where a recent survey found that Israelis favor the incumbent by an almost 45 percent margin. (Conversely, only 27 percent of American Jews are expected to vote for Trump, who divulged in August that “the evangelicals are more excited … than Jewish people” about elements of his Israel strategy.) That said, an answer to the proverbial question of whether Trump has been “good for Israel” remains elusive.
Whereas other world leaders have often strained to maintain constructive relations with the Trump administration, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to stay high atop the president’s short list of favorite allies over the past four years. Now, after having been a conspicuous beneficiary of U.S. diplomatic bounty throughout Trump’s tenure, Israel is bracing for the impact of what could soon be a different reality.
Much of what Trump has bestowed on Israel has been rhetorical or symbolic in nature. In December 2017, Trump extended official U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and in May 2018, a new U.S. Embassy was unveiled in the city. In 2019, Trump signed a presidential proclamation affording recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed a declaration that the “establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.” Last week, Pompeo announced that Israeli citizens born in Jerusalem could now elect to list their place of birth as “Israel” in U.S. consular documents.
The recent conclusion of the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, formalized and expanded an entente that had been fast-tracked already amid the dangers of an ascendant Iran. Trump’s determination—and sweeteners that he may have provided—to close this deal and a subsequent one with Sudan appears to have played a pivotal role as well.
More importantly for Israel, this newly tailored diplomatic paradigm has effectively revoked a de facto Palestinian “veto over peace and progress in our region,” in Netanyahu’s words, with a new cohort of Arab states prepared suddenly to reach agreements with Israel despite the stalemate in its conflict with the Palestinians.
On the flipside, Israel has not been spared tangible fallout from Trump’s erratic conduct of global affairs. In May 2017, an indiscreet Trump raised hackles in Israel when he shared privileged Israeli intelligence with Russia.
Israeli defense officials are sounding the alarm that, after consenting to deliver the F-35 stealth fighter to the UAE, Trump—ever the transactional figure—could also prove amenable to additional weapons sales that would erode Israel’s qualitative military edge. And on Iran, the premier external threat to Israel, Trump’s America First policy has often meant America alone: Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposition of tough prohibitions on Tehran notwithstanding, a diminished United States has been unsuccessful at persuading its former great-power partners to activate snapback sanctions against an emboldened Iran.
A Trump victory would likely see the continuation of these countervailing trends, with the United States acquiescing to Israeli unilateralism while continuing to step back from active involvement in the Middle East. (Russia could perhaps maneuver, as it has in Syria, to fill that vacuum.) The laconic foreign-policy agenda that Trump has proposed for a second term offers no hint of new directions.
But things will almost certainly change for Israel if pollsters are correct and Joe Biden captures the White House. Committed to restoring traditional U.S. alliances that have frayed under Trump, a new Democratic administration will be more inclined to work by international consensus. Israel’s position as a valued wingman of the United States will not be in jeopardy—Biden has so far rebuffed efforts by progressives to circumscribe the U.S. friendship with Israel—but Israelis should prepare for the return of a more measured approach that features, among other things, greater understanding for Palestinian viewpoints and a renewed push for compromise with Iran.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-03--Don’t Call the Race Too Early

Don’t Call the Race Too Early

This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
A disputed and violent election in the United States threatens to undermine the credibility of the political system and lead to a further loss of U.S. prestige around the world .
As President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden trade insults and accusations , entrenching deep social divisions , trust in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ armed civilians marching past polling stations and fear of unrest prompting some individuals and communities to mobilize themselves in self-defense , a controversial outcome could trigger clashes across the country .
If the 2020 election does explode , the way that the result is communicated to the American people is likely to be the trigger .
That ’ s because how the result is announced can be as important as the result itself .
The controversial Kenyan election of 2007 provides a good example of how important the process of announcing the results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected to be tight , but some opinion polls suggested that the main opposition candidate , Raila Odinga , had a slight lead .
The early results appeared to confirm this , in part because some of those numbers came from Odinga ’ s political heartlands .
Then the results stopped coming , and opposition leaders warned that the election was being fixed .
When President Mwai Kibaki was finally declared to have won in a rushed announcement—from which most of the media was excluded—it appeared to confirm Odinga ’ s fears .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 1,000 people died .
The outcome of the election would have been controversial whatever the process , but the way it came about poured fuel on the fire .
The United States is heading in the same direction .
On the one hand , Trump has already implied that a victory for Biden would mean a rigged election .
On the other hand , favorable opinion polls mean that the Democrats are confident of winning and are unlikely to view a Trump win as credible .
Many Americans take their cue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to announce the outcome early based on exit polls and other projections .
This is always a risky strategy , but could be catastrophic in 2020 .
Against this backdrop , the way the results will be announced seems almost designed to cause trouble .
The United States lacks a centralized and unified electoral commission responsible for presidential elections—in stark contrast to most democracies .
This means that many Americans take their cue from television stations , which have tended to announce the outcome early based on exit polls and other projections .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but could be catastrophic in 2020 .
This year , many Democrats have voted by mail because of public health concerns .
Republican voters are less concerned about COVID-19 and so more likely to vote on Election Day—and in many states , in-person votes are counted before mailed ballots .
This means that the early results and exit polls conducted at polling stations could suggest a Trump win , which will encourage the president , his social media followers , and perhaps some of the media outlets that support him to declare an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ counted .
Things will look very different however , when postal ballots are finally counted—which could take days .
Once postal votes are added to the totals , we may well see a clear Biden victory .
As in Kenya , a late change of electoral fortunes , with both sides claiming victory , would inflame passions and foster accusations of manipulation .
It could also lead to a political impasse in which the U.S. Supreme Court—now loaded with Trump appointees—would have the final say .
This would be unlikely to lead to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Kenya , but it would generate remarkable political instability , especially if rival parties trade accusations of voter suppression and ballot-box tampering , further reducing public confidence in democracy .

A disputed and violent election in the United States threatens to undermine the credibility of the political system and lead to a further loss of U.S. prestige around the world. As President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden trade insults and accusations, entrenching deep social divisions, trust in the electoral system is faltering.
A disputed and violent election in the United States threatens to undermine the credibility of the political system and lead to a further loss of U.S. prestige around the world. As President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden trade insults and accusations, entrenching deep social divisions, trust in the electoral system is faltering.
With armed civilians marching past polling stations and fear of unrest prompting some individuals and communities to mobilize themselves in self-defense, a controversial outcome could trigger clashes across the country. If the 2020 election does explode, the way that the result is communicated to the American people is likely to be the trigger.
That’s because how the result is announced can be as important as the result itself.
The controversial Kenyan election of 2007 provides a good example of how important the process of announcing the results can be. The presidential election was expected to be tight, but some opinion polls suggested that the main opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, had a slight lead. The early results appeared to confirm this, in part because some of those numbers came from Odinga’s political heartlands. Then the results stopped coming, and opposition leaders warned that the election was being fixed. When President Mwai Kibaki was finally declared to have won in a rushed announcement—from which most of the media was excluded—it appeared to confirm Odinga’s fears. In the political clashes that followed, more than 1,000 people died.
The outcome of the election would have been controversial whatever the process, but the way it came about poured fuel on the fire.
The United States is heading in the same direction. On the one hand, Trump has already implied that a victory for Biden would mean a rigged election. On the other hand, favorable opinion polls mean that the Democrats are confident of winning and are unlikely to view a Trump win as credible.
Against this backdrop, the way the results will be announced seems almost designed to cause trouble. The United States lacks a centralized and unified electoral commission responsible for presidential elections—in stark contrast to most democracies. This means that many Americans take their cue from television stations, which have tended to announce the outcome early based on exit polls and other projections. This is always a risky strategy, but could be catastrophic in 2020.
This year, many Democrats have voted by mail because of public health concerns. Republican voters are less concerned about COVID-19 and so more likely to vote on Election Day—and in many states, in-person votes are counted before mailed ballots.
This means that the early results and exit polls conducted at polling stations could suggest a Trump win, which will encourage the president, his social media followers, and perhaps some of the media outlets that support him to declare an early victory before all votes have been counted. Things will look very different however, when postal ballots are finally counted—which could take days. Once postal votes are added to the totals, we may well see a clear Biden victory.
As in Kenya, a late change of electoral fortunes, with both sides claiming victory, would inflame passions and foster accusations of manipulation. It could also lead to a political impasse in which the U.S. Supreme Court—now loaded with Trump appointees—would have the final say. This would be unlikely to lead to the kind of loss of life witnessed in Kenya, but it would generate remarkable political instability, especially if rival parties trade accusations of voter suppression and ballot-box tampering, further reducing public confidence in democracy.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-03--If Trump Wins, America Could Look a Lot Like Bulgaria

If Trump Wins , America Could Look a Lot Like Bulgaria SOFIA , Bulgaria—On the evening of Oct. 16 , the 100th consecutive day of anti-corruption protests in Bulgaria , ominous dark clouds hung over Sofia .
Thousands of people gathered in front of the Largo , the national legislative center , even after the clouds unleashed a massive downpour .
It felt like all of Sofia was there , from kids catching raindrops to grandmas in floral headscarves .
This energized , intergenerational crowd is one of the main reasons Bulgarians think that this time the country ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The last big anti-corruption protests forced Prime Minister Boyko Borisov to step down after four years of governing in 2013 .
His successor was in power for just over a year before protests kicked off by his nomination of a notorious oligarch as head of national security ultimately forced him out .
Borisov was back as prime minister by the end of 2014 .
The revolving leadership didn ’ t solve the country ’ s deep-rooted corruption problem .
Now , Bulgarians are calling for Borisov to resign again .
They want an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handful of insiders and an independent judiciary that will hold politicians accountable .
Borisov has been in power for most of the past decade , and he has run the country to benefit an inner circle of cronies at the expense of the public .
Last year , Bulgaria was ranked the most corrupt country in the European Union by Transparency International .
Borisov insists he will stay in power until the parliamentary election in March even though 66 percent of Bulgarians support the protests .
But the political pressure created by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next spring won ’ t be able to govern the same way Borisov has .
Bulgaria ’ s corrupt and captured state could be a preview for the United States if President Donald Trump is reelected .
Its current crisis foreshadows the long-term consequences of a government that ’ s even more beholden to the interests of a few business leaders close to the ruling party at the expense of everyone else .
“ It is not only fascistic xenophobes who are capable of killing democracy , ” wrote Bulgarian political scientist Evgenii @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very efficiently handled by semi-literate macho males bereft of any anti-democratic ideology.
” Before 2016 , this parallel may have been unfathomable .
The United States ’ democratic institutions were generally seen as stable , if imperfect .
Four years later , here we are .
The beach stunt embodied many aspects of Bulgaria ’ s corrupt system : that the rich and powerful are above the law , that the mechanisms of law enforcement serve them , that being aligned with the ruling party is rewarded with perks paid for by taxpayers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a judiciary that won ’ t prosecute corruption , a decimated free press , and institutions that are beholden to the ruling party , not the law .
On paper , Bulgaria is a democracy .
It cleaned up enough to gain entrance to the European Union in 2007 , although concerns about organized crime , corruption , and a partisan judicial system hung over its acceptance .
After joining the bloc , the country has mostly benefited from funding without checks on its rule of law .
The current U.S. and Bulgarian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ common .
Both Trump and Borisov run their countries with systems of favoritism , awarding large government contracts to personal connections with few accountability measures .
They have both collapsed the separation of powers .
Borisov even has real estate scandals of his own : his center-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party was recently implicated in an apartment price-fixing scheme that allowed party members to buy luxury property in Sofia at extremely reduced rates .
Some senior-level officials resigned , but Borisov remained in power .
Unlike Trump , Borisov doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disparage international institutions .
He ’ s a fan of the EU and a part of the same center-right bloc in Brussels as German Chancellor Angela Merkel ’ s party .
But that doesn ’ t make his machinations any less dangerous .
It simply means that Western European leaders have been more willing to ignore Bulgaria ’ s corruption—although as the protests continue , it ’ s harder for EU lawmakers to look away .
Independent institutions are critical to a functional democratic society , but Bulgaria ’ s institutions have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the point that food safety inspections are a partisan affair that can lead to extortion .
By 2017 , state institutions “ were indeed ‘ systems of rules , ’ but these rules were the wishes of the Prime Minister and his allies , rather than the written laws , ” Dainov wrote .
“ The institutions did what they were told to do , irrespective of any law.
” A strong independent press is another bedrock of healthy civil society .
In Bulgaria , the collapse of media freedom was punctuated but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the financial stress facing news outlets worldwide helped concentrate much of the country ’ s media ownership into the hands of a single man : Delyan Peevski , whom Reporters Without Borders has called “ the most notorious embodiment ” of the collusion between media , politicians , and oligarchs .
Many outlets not directly owned by Peevski are still part of the murky tangle of powerful parties and are invested in the status quo .
Investigative reporters have been forced out of their jobs or faced smear campaigns by Peevski-owned outlets , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ universal problem of non-paying or low-paying jobs .
Freedom of the press in Bulgaria has declined over the past decade and is now ranked 111th in the world by Reporters Without Borders , far worse than other EU member states .
If Bulgaria ’ s current conundrum illustrates the risks facing the United States , the current protests are also instructive .
Yes , the rallying call is for Borisov to resign .
But the movement is about more than getting a single man out of political office .
It ’ s about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of protests , you could hear the chants of the Bulgarian word for “ resign “ —ostavka—over the pounding rain .
The beach stunt that kicked off the protests is now months in the past , but the clear imagery it provided of a corrupt government removing citizens from what is rightfully public land remains .
In the coming months , as Bulgarians continue to push back against state corruption , Americans will have their own opportunity to do the same .
Seeing Bulgarian flags draped over protesters ’ shoulders and energetically waving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national symbols and governments themselves can be reclaimed .

SOFIA, Bulgaria—On the evening of Oct. 16, the 100th consecutive day of anti-corruption protests in Bulgaria, ominous dark clouds hung over Sofia. Thousands of people gathered in front of the Largo, the national legislative center, even after the clouds unleashed a massive downpour. It felt like all of Sofia was there, from kids catching raindrops to grandmas in floral headscarves. This energized, intergenerational crowd is one of the main reasons Bulgarians think that this time the country’s oligarchic system will start to crack.
SOFIA, Bulgaria—On the evening of Oct. 16, the 100th consecutive day of anti-corruption protests in Bulgaria, ominous dark clouds hung over Sofia. Thousands of people gathered in front of the Largo, the national legislative center, even after the clouds unleashed a massive downpour. It felt like all of Sofia was there, from kids catching raindrops to grandmas in floral headscarves. This energized, intergenerational crowd is one of the main reasons Bulgarians think that this time the country’s oligarchic system will start to crack.
The last big anti-corruption protests forced Prime Minister Boyko Borisov to step down after four years of governing in 2013. His successor was in power for just over a year before protests kicked off by his nomination of a notorious oligarch as head of national security ultimately forced him out. Borisov was back as prime minister by the end of 2014. The revolving leadership didn’t solve the country’s deep-rooted corruption problem.
Now, Bulgarians are calling for Borisov to resign again. They want an end to the corruption that rewards a handful of insiders and an independent judiciary that will hold politicians accountable. Borisov has been in power for most of the past decade, and he has run the country to benefit an inner circle of cronies at the expense of the public. Last year, Bulgaria was ranked the most corrupt country in the European Union by Transparency International.
Borisov insists he will stay in power until the parliamentary election in March even though 66 percent of Bulgarians support the protests. But the political pressure created by the demonstrations means that whoever is voted in next spring won’t be able to govern the same way Borisov has.
Bulgaria’s corrupt and captured state could be a preview for the United States if President Donald Trump is reelected. Its current crisis foreshadows the long-term consequences of a government that’s even more beholden to the interests of a few business leaders close to the ruling party at the expense of everyone else.
“It is not only fascistic xenophobes who are capable of killing democracy,” wrote Bulgarian political scientist Evgenii Dainov. “This task can be very efficiently handled by semi-literate macho males bereft of any anti-democratic ideology.”
Before 2016, this parallel may have been unfathomable. The United States’ democratic institutions were generally seen as stable, if imperfect. Four years later, here we are.
Bulgaria’s latest wave of protests started this summer, when Hristo Ivanov, the former justice minister and leader of the anti-corruption Da, Bulgaria (Yes, Bulgaria) party, livestreamed himself trying to plant a Bulgarian flag on a Black Sea beach. All Bulgarian beaches are public, but this stretch of shore was near the summer residence of Ahmed Dogan, a former politician who remains extremely powerful behind the scenes. Ivanov was intercepted by security guards appointed to protect Dogan. After letting him plant the flag, they shoved him off the rocky beach.
The beach stunt embodied many aspects of Bulgaria’s corrupt system: that the rich and powerful are above the law, that the mechanisms of law enforcement serve them, that being aligned with the ruling party is rewarded with perks paid for by taxpayers. Bulgarians are also fed up with a judiciary that won’t prosecute corruption, a decimated free press, and institutions that are beholden to the ruling party, not the law.
On paper, Bulgaria is a democracy. It cleaned up enough to gain entrance to the European Union in 2007, although concerns about organized crime, corruption, and a partisan judicial system hung over its acceptance. After joining the bloc, the country has mostly benefited from funding without checks on its rule of law.
The current U.S. and Bulgarian administrations already have some unflattering features in common. Both Trump and Borisov run their countries with systems of favoritism, awarding large government contracts to personal connections with few accountability measures. They have both collapsed the separation of powers.
Borisov even has real estate scandals of his own: his center-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party was recently implicated in an apartment price-fixing scheme that allowed party members to buy luxury property in Sofia at extremely reduced rates. Some senior-level officials resigned, but Borisov remained in power.
Unlike Trump, Borisov doesn’t make blatantly racist remarks or disparage international institutions. He’s a fan of the EU and a part of the same center-right bloc in Brussels as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party. But that doesn’t make his machinations any less dangerous. It simply means that Western European leaders have been more willing to ignore Bulgaria’s corruption—although as the protests continue, it’s harder for EU lawmakers to look away.
The problem in Bulgaria and the United States runs deeper than the individual leaders dismantling their country’s democracies. The problem is a political system that puts a handful of people with concentrated power and wealth above the law and everyone else. Aspects of the current trajectory of the United States—where the leaders of nonpartisan public health agencies are ridiculed by the White House amid a pandemic and the president openly attacks journalists as enemies of the people—could easily lead to a system as corrupt as Bulgaria’s.
Independent institutions are critical to a functional democratic society, but Bulgaria’s institutions have been captured by the ruling party, to the point that food safety inspections are a partisan affair that can lead to extortion. By 2017, state institutions “were indeed ‘systems of rules,’ but these rules were the wishes of the Prime Minister and his allies, rather than the written laws,” Dainov wrote. “The institutions did what they were told to do, irrespective of any law.”
A strong independent press is another bedrock of healthy civil society. In Bulgaria, the collapse of media freedom was punctuated but not defined by violence. Instead, the financial stress facing news outlets worldwide helped concentrate much of the country’s media ownership into the hands of a single man: Delyan Peevski, whom Reporters Without Borders has called “the most notorious embodiment” of the collusion between media, politicians, and oligarchs.
Many outlets not directly owned by Peevski are still part of the murky tangle of powerful parties and are invested in the status quo. Investigative reporters have been forced out of their jobs or faced smear campaigns by Peevski-owned outlets, while other journalists come up against the universal problem of non-paying or low-paying jobs. Freedom of the press in Bulgaria has declined over the past decade and is now ranked 111th in the world by Reporters Without Borders, far worse than other EU member states.
If Bulgaria’s current conundrum illustrates the risks facing the United States, the current protests are also instructive. Yes, the rallying call is for Borisov to resign. But the movement is about more than getting a single man out of political office. It’s about the system.
On the 100th night of protests, you could hear the chants of the Bulgarian word for “resign“—ostavka—over the pounding rain. The beach stunt that kicked off the protests is now months in the past, but the clear imagery it provided of a corrupt government removing citizens from what is rightfully public land remains.
In the coming months, as Bulgarians continue to push back against state corruption, Americans will have their own opportunity to do the same. Seeing Bulgarian flags draped over protesters’ shoulders and energetically waving in the streets is a reminder that national symbols and governments themselves can be reclaimed.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Why a Biden Win Is Bad News for Boris Johnson

Why a Biden Win Is Bad News for Boris Johnson This article is part of Election 2020 : America Votes , FP ’ s round-the-clock coverage of the U.S. election results as they come in , with short dispatches from correspondents and analysts around the world .
The America Votes page is free for all readers .
LONDON—The United States ’ cultural dominance isn ’ t always benign .
The election of Donald Trump told trashy politicians across the world that they could lie continuously , tear up conventions , smash up their countries , and—far from being punished by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Richard III complains he must “ clothe my naked villainy ” and “ seem a saint , when most I play the devil.
” Trump taught leaders from Brazil to Hungary they no longer needed to pretend to be saintly .
However basely they behaved , their base would applaud them .
No one learned the lesson better than Britain ’ s Boris Johnson .
With Joe Biden on the path to victory , the British prime minister now looks like yesterday ’ s man .
The spirit of the age has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a relic of a discredited past .
This change in culture will matter more than any political change in formal Anglo-American relations .
Living in the U.K. , it has been dispiriting to watch how quickly Trumpian tactics were accepted as normal .
Johnson suspended Britain ’ s supposedly sovereign Parliament in an attempt to push Brexit through , threatened the independence of the judiciary , and said he would break international law by renouncing a treaty he signed with the European Union if he did not get his way .
Trump said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call him Britain ’ s Trump and people are saying that ’ s a good thing.
” When then U.S. President Barack Obama warned Britain against leaving the EU in 2016 , Johnson sounded like a birther , suggesting that Obama was no friend to this country because of his “ part-Kenyan ” heritage and “ ancestral dislike of the British empire.
” More recently , faced with a deadly pandemic , Johnson may not have embraced the pseudo-scientific claptrap of the U.S. president , but his failure to deal with COVID-19 has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exaggerate Johnson ’ s affinity with Trump .
When it comes to foreign policy , the British Conservatives have been closer to the Democrats than the Republicans .
They continue to support Obama ’ s deal with Iran , and say they are concerned about climate change , although whether they are prepared to take the hard decisions to combat it is another matter .
But ever since it started to become clear that Obama ’ s vice president was likely heading to the White House , something close to panic has gripped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ the Anglosphere ” has become the never-never land of the British right-wing imagination .
Britain could leave the EU and join an English-speaking bloc led by the United States , or so the story ran , and build a pact with its true friends .
With Biden as president , Washington may not even give Britain the fast-track trade deal that Brexit supporters pretended could compensate for the loss of the vastly more significant trade with the EU .
Meanwhile , Biden and the U.S. Congress ’ s determination to stop Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Ireland will mean that Dublin ’ s voice will carry more weight in Washington than London ’ s—a reversal of 800 years of English dominance of Ireland .
Britain will have abandoned its European alliance while failing to secure an American alliance .
Its isolation will be painful—and painfully obvious .

LONDON—The United States’ cultural dominance isn’t always benign. The election of Donald Trump told trashy politicians across the world that they could lie continuously, tear up conventions, smash up their countries, and—far from being punished by their electorates—they would win.
LONDON—The United States’ cultural dominance isn’t always benign. The election of Donald Trump told trashy politicians across the world that they could lie continuously, tear up conventions, smash up their countries, and—far from being punished by their electorates—they would win.
Shakespeare’s Richard III complains he must “clothe my naked villainy” and “seem a saint, when most I play the devil.” Trump taught leaders from Brazil to Hungary they no longer needed to pretend to be saintly. However basely they behaved, their base would applaud them. No one learned the lesson better than Britain’s Boris Johnson.
With Joe Biden on the path to victory, the British prime minister now looks like yesterday’s man. The spirit of the age has left him behind, and he seems a relic of a discredited past. This change in culture will matter more than any political change in formal Anglo-American relations.
Living in the U.K., it has been dispiriting to watch how quickly Trumpian tactics were accepted as normal. Johnson suspended Britain’s supposedly sovereign Parliament in an attempt to push Brexit through, threatened the independence of the judiciary, and said he would break international law by renouncing a treaty he signed with the European Union if he did not get his way. Trump said of Johnson in 2019, “They call him Britain’s Trump and people are saying that’s a good thing.”
When then U.S. President Barack Obama warned Britain against leaving the EU in 2016, Johnson sounded like a birther, suggesting that Obama was no friend to this country because of his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire.” More recently, faced with a deadly pandemic, Johnson may not have embraced the pseudo-scientific claptrap of the U.S. president, but his failure to deal with COVID-19 has been almost as egregious.
One can exaggerate Johnson’s affinity with Trump. When it comes to foreign policy, the British Conservatives have been closer to the Democrats than the Republicans. They continue to support Obama’s deal with Iran, and say they are concerned about climate change, although whether they are prepared to take the hard decisions to combat it is another matter.
But ever since it started to become clear that Obama’s vice president was likely heading to the White House, something close to panic has gripped Downing Street.
The fantasy world of “the Anglosphere” has become the never-never land of the British right-wing imagination. Britain could leave the EU and join an English-speaking bloc led by the United States, or so the story ran, and build a pact with its true friends.
With Biden as president, Washington may not even give Britain the fast-track trade deal that Brexit supporters pretended could compensate for the loss of the vastly more significant trade with the EU.
Meanwhile, Biden and the U.S. Congress’s determination to stop Johnson building a hard border on the island of Ireland will mean that Dublin’s voice will carry more weight in Washington than London’s—a reversal of 800 years of English dominance of Ireland.
Britain will have abandoned its European alliance while failing to secure an American alliance. Its isolation will be painful—and painfully obvious.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Trump Mounts Legal Challenge to Election Results as Ethiopia Fighting Escalates

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : the 2020 U.S. presidential election is still undecided , Ethiopian government forces clash with Tigrayan forces in the country ’ s north , and Brexit talks still have “ serious divergences.
” We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Into that uncertainty has stepped U.S. President Donald Trump , who has made good on his promise to mount legal challenges to ensure his victory .
The Trump campaign is seeking a recount in Wisconsin ( where Biden leads by 20,000 votes ) and is attempting to halt vote counting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 130,000 votes ) .
The campaign is also joining a suit in Pennsylvania that challenges the extension of ballot deadlines while also disputing the counting of absentee ballots in Georgia .
Across the country , protests by Trump supporters and his opponents have already begun .
In Arizona , a few hundred Trump-supporting protesters—some armed—surrounded a vote-counting center in Phoenix .
Rather than attempt to disrupt the count , protesters pounded on windows , urging election officials to keep counting the vote , which they continue to do .
Two news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Press , have already called the state for Joe Biden , even as the margin between the two candidates remains tight with less than 14 percent of votes still to be reported .
Although Joe Biden has not yet declared victory , his campaign team appears to be moving quickly .
An official website for his White House transition team has already been created .
It ’ s Trump ’ s America .
Foreign Policy Editor in Chief Jonathan Tepperman looks ahead to a future of “ self-perpetuating dysfunction , ” no matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If Biden wins , that still doesn ’ t mean a return to order , he argues , given that Trumpism has shown such resilience among the U.S. electorate .
“ While Biden may seek to change the tone in Washington , the years of Barack Obama ’ s presidency showed that despite Biden ’ s lifelong dedication to bipartisanship , so long as Republicans remain the party of no , the chances of achieving it are close to zero , ” Tepperman writes .
The other numbers .
While the focus has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States has continued to post record numbers of coronavirus cases .
On Wednesday , over 100,000 cases were reported in the country , the highest number since the pandemic began .
On top of that statistic , another that has almost become routine : 1,200 people died of the disease on Wednesday alone .
Writing in Foreign Policy , Laurie Garrett warns of what ’ s to come if the likely outcome of a divided White House and Senate becomes reality : A COVID-19 pandemic “ unfettered by any robust federal action and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governors are determined to adhere to their public health guidance.
” Follow along with FP .
We ’ re continuing our round-the-clock election live blog today , with reporting from our correspondents and analysis from around the world .
Join us .
Heavy fighting in Ethiopia .
Ethiopian federal forces are reported to have engaged in heavy fighting with the Tigray People ’ s Liberation Front , the ruling party in the country ’ s northern region .
Addressing Ethiopians on state television , Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said “ The army not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to control important and key locations ” in Tigray .
The information war—made more difficult by a region-wide internet blackout—is ongoing : TPLF sources say that the army ’ s northern command , stationed in Tigray , has defected to their side .
The Ethiopian government denies any defection has taken place , and said that it would conduct “ more operations in the coming days.
” Tom Gardner reports from Addis Ababa on the escalating confrontation and explains how it could lead to civil war .
Arce ’ s opponents go on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bolivian President-elect Luis Arce will begin a two-day strike today in the department of Santa Cruz , home to Bolivia ’ s largest city , in order to voice their opposition to the results of October ’ s presidential election .
Governor Ruben Costas has asked Bolivia ’ s electoral tribunal to audit the result , but the tribunal rejected the request , citing the election ’ s certification by outside groups such as the Organization of American States ( OAS ) .
Arce is set to be inaugurated as president on Sunday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces have demolished a Palestinian village in the West Bank , leaving 73 people homeless , in what the United Nations reported as the largest demolition operation in years .
The demolition brings to 689 the number of structures demolished across the West Bank , the highest number since 2016 .
The Israeli human rights group B ’ Tselem said the mass demolition was likely an opportunistic move by the Israeli government while the eyes of the world were focused on the U.S. election .
Austria missed tip-off before attack .
Austrian Interior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Slovak authorities had tipped off Austrian intelligence services about the threat posed by the gunman in the Nov. 2 attack in Vienna but that “ something went wrong with communications.
” Nehammer has called for an independent commission to investigate why exactly the failure occurred .
Chinese trawlers .
Chile , Colombia , Ecuador , and Peru have banded together to “ to prevent , discourage and jointly confront ” illegal fishing in their territorial waters , according to a joint statement issued on Wednesday .
Although not named in the statement , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , whose large fishing fleets in the region have led to complaints from the South American countries in the past .
As part of the new arrangement , the four countries plan to increase “ cooperation and real-time exchange of information ” to stop illegal fishing .
Coronavirus mink mutation .
Denmark will cull 17 million minks after a mutated version of the coronavirus that is transmissable to humans was found on a farm in the country .
It ’ s the third time a mink cull has been ordered Europe after coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The move is likely to damage Denmark economically , as the country is the world ’ s number one mink fur producer .
North Korea ’ s legislature has banned smoking in some public spaces in an effort to give its citizens “ hygienic living environments.
” The ban applies to political and ideological education centers , theaters and cinemas , and medical and public health facilities , North Korean state media has reported .
The move is likely to have an outsize impact on social behavior in the country : roughly 44 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population are smokers , according to World Health Organization figures .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the 2020 U.S. presidential election is still undecided, Ethiopian government forces clash with Tigrayan forces in the country’s north , and Brexit talks still have “serious divergences.”
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the 2020 U.S. presidential election is still undecided, Ethiopian government forces clash with Tigrayan forces in the country’s north, and Brexit talks still have “serious divergences.”
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
As Biden Closes In, Trump Brings In The Lawyers Vote counting in the U.S. presidential election continues this morning. While Democratic candidate Joe Biden has a clearer path to victory after the AP called races in Wisconsin and Michigan in his favor, some key states have yet to provide definitive results. Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all expect to publish full results today, according to state election officials.
Into that uncertainty has stepped U.S. President Donald Trump, who has made good on his promise to mount legal challenges to ensure his victory. The Trump campaign is seeking a recount in Wisconsin (where Biden leads by 20,000 votes) and is attempting to halt vote counting in Michigan (where Biden leads by more than 130,000 votes). The campaign is also joining a suit in Pennsylvania that challenges the extension of ballot deadlines while also disputing the counting of absentee ballots in Georgia.
Across the country, protests by Trump supporters and his opponents have already begun. In Arizona, a few hundred Trump-supporting protesters—some armed—surrounded a vote-counting center in Phoenix. Rather than attempt to disrupt the count, protesters pounded on windows, urging election officials to keep counting the vote, which they continue to do. Two news organizations, Fox News and the Associated Press, have already called the state for Joe Biden, even as the margin between the two candidates remains tight with less than 14 percent of votes still to be reported.
Although Joe Biden has not yet declared victory, his campaign team appears to be moving quickly. An official website for his White House transition team has already been created.
It’s Trump’s America. Foreign Policy Editor in Chief Jonathan Tepperman looks ahead to a future of “self-perpetuating dysfunction,” no matter who ultimately wins the White House.
If Biden wins, that still doesn’t mean a return to order, he argues, given that Trumpism has shown such resilience among the U.S. electorate. “While Biden may seek to change the tone in Washington, the years of Barack Obama’s presidency showed that despite Biden’s lifelong dedication to bipartisanship, so long as Republicans remain the party of no, the chances of achieving it are close to zero,” Tepperman writes.
The other numbers. While the focus has been on vote counts, the United States has continued to post record numbers of coronavirus cases. On Wednesday, over 100,000 cases were reported in the country, the highest number since the pandemic began. On top of that statistic, another that has almost become routine: 1,200 people died of the disease on Wednesday alone.
Writing in Foreign Policy, Laurie Garrett warns of what’s to come if the likely outcome of a divided White House and Senate becomes reality: A COVID-19 pandemic “unfettered by any robust federal action and only slowed in a few states where governors are determined to adhere to their public health guidance.”
Follow along with FP. We’re continuing our round-the-clock election live blog today, with reporting from our correspondents and analysis from around the world. Join us.
What We’re Following Today
Heavy fighting in Ethiopia. Ethiopian federal forces are reported to have engaged in heavy fighting with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the ruling party in the country’s northern region. Addressing Ethiopians on state television, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said “The army not only repulsed the attacks but has managed to control important and key locations” in Tigray. The information war—made more difficult by a region-wide internet blackout—is ongoing: TPLF sources say that the army’s northern command, stationed in Tigray, has defected to their side. The Ethiopian government denies any defection has taken place, and said that it would conduct “more operations in the coming days.” Tom Gardner reports from Addis Ababa on the escalating confrontation and explains how it could lead to civil war.
Arce’s opponents go on strike in Bolivia. Conservative opponents of Bolivian President-elect Luis Arce will begin a two-day strike today in the department of Santa Cruz, home to Bolivia’s largest city, in order to voice their opposition to the results of October’s presidential election. Governor Ruben Costas has asked Bolivia’s electoral tribunal to audit the result, but the tribunal rejected the request, citing the election’s certification by outside groups such as the Organization of American States (OAS). Arce is set to be inaugurated as president on Sunday.
West Bank village razed. Israeli forces have demolished a Palestinian village in the West Bank, leaving 73 people homeless, in what the United Nations reported as the largest demolition operation in years. The demolition brings to 689 the number of structures demolished across the West Bank, the highest number since 2016. The Israeli human rights group B’Tselem said the mass demolition was likely an opportunistic move by the Israeli government while the eyes of the world were focused on the U.S. election.
Austria missed tip-off before attack. Austrian Interior Minister Karl Nehammer admitted that in July Slovak authorities had tipped off Austrian intelligence services about the threat posed by the gunman in the Nov. 2 attack in Vienna but that “something went wrong with communications.” Nehammer has called for an independent commission to investigate why exactly the failure occurred.
Keep an Eye On Brexit talks. With less than 10 weeks to go before Britain ends its Brexit transition period, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that “very serious divergences” still remain between the two sides after two weeks of talks. His counterpart David Frost has also acknowledged that “wide divergences” still exist around fisheries, a level competitive environment for companies, and other governance issues. In a veiled suggestion that the EU would accept a no-deal outcome, Barnier tweeted that “The EU is prepared for all scenarios.”
Chinese trawlers. Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru have banded together to “to prevent, discourage and jointly confront” illegal fishing in their territorial waters, according to a joint statement issued on Wednesday. Although not named in the statement, the alliance is a challenge to China, whose large fishing fleets in the region have led to complaints from the South American countries in the past. As part of the new arrangement, the four countries plan to increase “cooperation and real-time exchange of information” to stop illegal fishing.
Coronavirus mink mutation. Denmark will cull 17 million minks after a mutated version of the coronavirus that is transmissable to humans was found on a farm in the country. It’s the third time a mink cull has been ordered Europe after coronavirus scares in Spain and the Netherlands. The move is likely to damage Denmark economically, as the country is the world’s number one mink fur producer.
Odds and Ends
North Korea’s legislature has banned smoking in some public spaces in an effort to give its citizens “hygienic living environments.” The ban applies to political and ideological education centers, theaters and cinemas, and medical and public health facilities, North Korean state media has reported. The move is likely to have an outsize impact on social behavior in the country: roughly 44 percent of North Korea’s male population are smokers, according to World Health Organization figures.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-11-05--Poland’s Anti-Abortion Dream Has Become a Nightmare

WARSAW—On the night that protests began , a crowd of furious women spontaneously marched from outside the court that had virtually banned abortions in Poland , past the headquarters of the ruling Law and Justice ( PiS ) party , and towards its chairman ’ s private Warsaw home .
Jaroslaw Kaczynski was not in .
As protests snowballed into Poland ’ s largest revolt in decades , the veteran politician ’ s once firm grip on power has also been noticeably absent .
On Oct. 22 , Poland ’ s Constitutional Tribunal outlawed abortion in cases of fetal defects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1,110 terminations last year .
The court was responding to a request submitted last December by 119 conservative lawmakers to review whether so-called eugenic abortions—in their words—contravened the constitutional guarantees of dignity and the right to life .
Once in effect , the verdict will mean that abortions will only be permitted when pregnancies result from an illegal act , such as rape or incest , or when they endanger the mother ’ s health .
Kaczynski has long strived to limit abortion in Poland .
During a previous attempt in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even “ when certain to die ” so as to “ be baptized , buried , have a name.
” However , the bill fell short of votes in parliament following a popular outcry .
Now , the PiS chairman has found a non-legislative workaround .
He has enlisting the help of judges from the Constitutional Tribunal , which the party packed with loyalists shortly after taking power .
The politicized ruling set off protests that have raged on across Poland for almost a fortnight .
A medley of groups has joined the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and expressing worries about the increasingly autocratic inclinations of the country ’ s government .
A mining union gave thumping backing for women ’ s reproductive rights , farmers rode tractors clad with anti-government slogans and confectioners made cakes for the occasion .
Poland ’ s oldest chocolate producer said it would support staff who joined the general strike on Wednesday .
Organizers estimate that events are now taking place in more than 500 locations , including expat communities around the world .
Even in a staunchly Catholic country , the ruling has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 79 percent of Poles , according to latest surveys .
It thus set off demonstrations of a size unseen since the Solidarity movement that helped topple its communist government in 1989 .
Yet even before street protests began , it was clear that Poles would oppose restrictions to abortion laws , already among the tightest in Europe .
Under communism the country had very liberal rules , with reports of Scandinavian women travelling to Poland for the procedure .
In 1993 they were curbed under pressure from the Catholic church , and many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ compromise ” of three decades .
According to a poll released on Friday , only 12 percent of Poles backed limits , with a majority in favor of keeping current rules .
Previous moves have also sparked mass protests by women clad in black and waving coat-hangers .
This time , however , the reaction has been even more thunderous .
Despite the raging pandemic and limits on public gatherings of more than five people , on Friday 100,000 angry protesters converged on the capital in the biggest show of opposition to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a decade ago .
There was a sense of spontaneity .
“ Do you want to head to the court , the parliament , or to Zoliborz ?
” shouted a woman from a moving stage .
Helicopters buzzed overhead and Eighties dance floor hits blared from a van .
The crowd cheered for the third option and heaved towards the leafy northern suburb where Kaczynski ’ s house was already cordoned off by riot police .
“ This is war , ” they chanted on the way .
Some believe that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Since September the ruling party has squabbled with its two junior coalition partners .
The government reshuffle that followed seemingly satisfied nobody and exposed deep rifts within the governing camp .
Wojciech Szacki , a senior political analyst at Polityka Insight think tank , said that the abortion ruling was a ploy by the coalition ’ s long-standing leader to rein in control and “ reunite members under a new banner.
” Experts , however , believe that PiS miscalculated the blowback .
“ During the pandemic people have tended to lock themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health as a priority .
However , it turned out that people were concerned with protecting the comfort of their social lives too , ” said Ewa Marciniak , a professor of political science at the University of Warsaw .
The court ’ s decision has been convenient in at least one sense : It has served as a distraction while the government fights off charges of incompetence over its handling of the pandemic .
Although Poland emerged relatively unscathed from the first wave , it now faces one of the world ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Its medical services are creaking .
Donald Tusk , a former Polish prime minister and previous European Council president , said that tackling the topic “ in the middle of a raging pandemic ” was “ political villainy.
” Others believe that Poland ’ s rulers used the opportune moment , with elections not scheduled until 2023 , to court the Catholic church .
The institution , which retains much clout in a country where 33 of 38 million are registered as its faithful , has long pressed the government to outlaw abortion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is still its real ally , ” said Professor Marciniak .
Yet the party unwittingly released the wrath of protesters onto the clergy .
Women broke taboos as they confronted priests shouting obscenities .
Activists interjected masses with chants and vandalized facades with abortion helpline numbers .
In response , nationalist groups formed vigilante patrols to defend churches .
An estimated 56 percent of Poles already hold a critical view of the institution , and with the clergy warning about the “ sinfulness ” of participating in the strikes , pollsters say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Set on the back foot , Kaczynski broke his silence days after rallies began .
In a six-minute video he accused protesters of seeking to “ end the history of the Polish nation ” and called for the defense of churches “ at all costs.
” The message was variously read as an attempt to stoke culture wars—a winning tactic in the PiS playbook—or a rallying call to the party ’ s rank-and-file members .
“ He wanted to remind them that when the institution of the Church is endangered , it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” said Szacki .
Following Kaczynski ’ s missive , prosecutors were ordered to file charges against rally organizers for endangering public health .
The education minister , Przemyslaw Czarnek , threatened to cut funds to universities that had cancelled classes to allow students to attend protests .
Further fanning the flames , the speaker of parliament , Ryszard Terlecki , compared the protest ’ s red thunderbolt symbol to a Nazi runic insignia .
In response dozens of scholars at the University of Warsaw said the interpretations , echoed by state media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manipulation or a manifestation of ignorance.
” Yet the confrontational approach jarred with the conciliatory remarks by other senior figures from his party , including the president .
Andrzej Duda suggested that the police force , rather than citizens initiatives , “ were there to ensure order.
” His usually reticent wife and daughter made rare appearances to express their doubts about the new regime .
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also called for people to stay home .
“ He did not denounce the protesters as criminals , but rather , appealed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreading the virus , ” said Szacki .
The crisis has thus left the ruling camp divided .
On Monday , the government stalled enforcing the verdict , which will only go into force once published in an official gazette , claiming it needs time for “ dialog and to work out a new position.
” On Friday , the president sought to defuse protests by offering a “ legislative solution ” that would reaffirm the legality of abortion when there is terminal damage .
This would preclude cases like Down ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ board , while his deputy and leader of the moderate Agreement party , Jaroslaw Gowin , said that “ the law can not force women to be heroic ” .
Protesters have rejected the softened proposal which they say would still mean accepting stricter rules than those in place since almost three decades ago .
“ It ’ s an offer along the lines of—I stole 100 zloty , and I ’ ll give you back 50 , ” said Katarzyna Lubnauer , an opposition politician .
They have now expanded their demands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a cleanup of the politics courts system and ultimately an ousting of Poland ’ s cabinet .
The government is now in a precarious position .
The unpopular verdict , along with spiraling new coronavirus cases and deaths , have left it hemorrhaging popular support .
A survey on Sunday showed support for PiS—which last autumn won elections with 44 percent of the vote—dropping from 42 to 29 percent support since the start of October .
The protest ’ s organizers have fought off politicians tagging onto its momentum .
The main centrist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , also slumped by 4 percentage points in the same survey .
Voters instead flocked to Poland 2050 , a new formation built around by Szymon Holownia , a devout Catholic and popular television host who came third in this year ’ s presidential race and has retained the allure of a political outsider .
The PiS chairman is personally in a riskier spot than when he last faced a popular backlash .
Back in 2016 , his party had just resoundingly won elections on the promise to introduce new welfare measures , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its flagship public housing scheme has just flopped , and there are growing grumbles from businesses maimed by the coronavirus lockdown .
Previously Kaczynski could also rely on the loyalty of the newly elected PiS-allied president .
Now that Duda has just been chosen for another five years—which will also be his last under Poland ’ s presidential term limits—he has less of an incentive to fall in line .
The demonstrations flaunt many young faces , and have been characterized by humorous placards with a handful of angry invective .
“ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the political demands of a younger generation , ” explains Professor Marciniak .
They also show no signs of backing down , with new formal structures in place and more street protests scheduled for days ahead .
What ’ s already clear is that PiS , by accomplishing a long-held ideological goal , has weakened its own grip on power .

WARSAW—On the night that protests began, a crowd of furious women spontaneously marched from outside the court that had virtually banned abortions in Poland, past the headquarters of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, and towards its chairman’s private Warsaw home. Jaroslaw Kaczynski was not in. As protests snowballed into Poland’s largest revolt in decades, the veteran politician’s once firm grip on power has also been noticeably absent.
WARSAW—On the night that protests began, a crowd of furious women spontaneously marched from outside the court that had virtually banned abortions in Poland, past the headquarters of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, and towards its chairman’s private Warsaw home. Jaroslaw Kaczynski was not in. As protests snowballed into Poland’s largest revolt in decades, the veteran politician’s once firm grip on power has also been noticeably absent.
On Oct. 22, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal outlawed abortion in cases of fetal defects, the legal basis for 1,074 of the 1,110 terminations last year. The court was responding to a request submitted last December by 119 conservative lawmakers to review whether so-called eugenic abortions—in their words—contravened the constitutional guarantees of dignity and the right to life. Once in effect, the verdict will mean that abortions will only be permitted when pregnancies result from an illegal act, such as rape or incest, or when they endanger the mother’s health.
Kaczynski has long strived to limit abortion in Poland. During a previous attempt in 2016 he said that children should be born even “when certain to die” so as to “be baptized, buried, have a name.” However, the bill fell short of votes in parliament following a popular outcry. Now, the PiS chairman has found a non-legislative workaround. He has enlisting the help of judges from the Constitutional Tribunal, which the party packed with loyalists shortly after taking power.
The politicized ruling set off protests that have raged on across Poland for almost a fortnight. A medley of groups has joined the rallies, each venting their own grievances and expressing worries about the increasingly autocratic inclinations of the country’s government.
A mining union gave thumping backing for women’s reproductive rights, farmers rode tractors clad with anti-government slogans and confectioners made cakes for the occasion. Poland’s oldest chocolate producer said it would support staff who joined the general strike on Wednesday. Organizers estimate that events are now taking place in more than 500 locations, including expat communities around the world. Even in a staunchly Catholic country, the ruling has been deeply unpopular, unsettling up to 79 percent of Poles, according to latest surveys. It thus set off demonstrations of a size unseen since the Solidarity movement that helped topple its communist government in 1989.
Yet even before street protests began, it was clear that Poles would oppose restrictions to abortion laws, already among the tightest in Europe. Under communism the country had very liberal rules, with reports of Scandinavian women travelling to Poland for the procedure. In 1993 they were curbed under pressure from the Catholic church, and many Poles have since grown used to the “compromise” of three decades. According to a poll released on Friday, only 12 percent of Poles backed limits, with a majority in favor of keeping current rules. Previous moves have also sparked mass protests by women clad in black and waving coat-hangers.
This time, however, the reaction has been even more thunderous. Despite the raging pandemic and limits on public gatherings of more than five people, on Friday 100,000 angry protesters converged on the capital in the biggest show of opposition to the government since it took office half a decade ago. There was a sense of spontaneity. “Do you want to head to the court, the parliament, or to Zoliborz?” shouted a woman from a moving stage. Helicopters buzzed overhead and Eighties dance floor hits blared from a van. The crowd cheered for the third option and heaved towards the leafy northern suburb where Kaczynski’s house was already cordoned off by riot police. “This is war,” they chanted on the way.
Some believe that the verdict was timed for political ends. Since September the ruling party has squabbled with its two junior coalition partners. The government reshuffle that followed seemingly satisfied nobody and exposed deep rifts within the governing camp. Wojciech Szacki, a senior political analyst at Polityka Insight think tank, said that the abortion ruling was a ploy by the coalition’s long-standing leader to rein in control and “reunite members under a new banner.”
Experts, however, believe that PiS miscalculated the blowback. “During the pandemic people have tended to lock themselves up in their private spaces and treat health as a priority. However, it turned out that people were concerned with protecting the comfort of their social lives too,” said Ewa Marciniak, a professor of political science at the University of Warsaw.
The court’s decision has been convenient in at least one sense: It has served as a distraction while the government fights off charges of incompetence over its handling of the pandemic. Although Poland emerged relatively unscathed from the first wave, it now faces one of the world’s highest death rates per population. Its medical services are creaking. Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister and previous European Council president, said that tackling the topic “in the middle of a raging pandemic” was “political villainy.”
Others believe that Poland’s rulers used the opportune moment, with elections not scheduled until 2023, to court the Catholic church. The institution, which retains much clout in a country where 33 of 38 million are registered as its faithful, has long pressed the government to outlaw abortion. “The party is signaling that it is still its real ally,” said Professor Marciniak.
Yet the party unwittingly released the wrath of protesters onto the clergy. Women broke taboos as they confronted priests shouting obscenities. Activists interjected masses with chants and vandalized facades with abortion helpline numbers. In response, nationalist groups formed vigilante patrols to defend churches. An estimated 56 percent of Poles already hold a critical view of the institution, and with the clergy warning about the “sinfulness” of participating in the strikes, pollsters say it is now shedding further support.
Set on the back foot, Kaczynski broke his silence days after rallies began. In a six-minute video he accused protesters of seeking to “end the history of the Polish nation” and called for the defense of churches “at all costs.” The message was variously read as an attempt to stoke culture wars—a winning tactic in the PiS playbook—or a rallying call to the party’s rank-and-file members. “He wanted to remind them that when the institution of the Church is endangered, it is he who swoops to its defense,” said Szacki.
Following Kaczynski’s missive, prosecutors were ordered to file charges against rally organizers for endangering public health. The education minister, Przemyslaw Czarnek, threatened to cut funds to universities that had cancelled classes to allow students to attend protests. Further fanning the flames, the speaker of parliament, Ryszard Terlecki, compared the protest’s red thunderbolt symbol to a Nazi runic insignia. In response dozens of scholars at the University of Warsaw said the interpretations, echoed by state media controlled by PiS, was “conscious manipulation or a manifestation of ignorance.”
Yet the confrontational approach jarred with the conciliatory remarks by other senior figures from his party, including the president. Andrzej Duda suggested that the police force, rather than citizens initiatives, “were there to ensure order.” His usually reticent wife and daughter made rare appearances to express their doubts about the new regime. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also called for people to stay home. “He did not denounce the protesters as criminals, but rather, appealed to their conscience and encouraged them to avoid spreading the virus,” said Szacki.
The crisis has thus left the ruling camp divided. On Monday, the government stalled enforcing the verdict, which will only go into force once published in an official gazette, claiming it needs time for “dialog and to work out a new position.” On Friday, the president sought to defuse protests by offering a “legislative solution” that would reaffirm the legality of abortion when there is terminal damage. This would preclude cases like Down’s syndrome. The prime minister jumped on board, while his deputy and leader of the moderate Agreement party, Jaroslaw Gowin, said that “the law cannot force women to be heroic”.
Protesters have rejected the softened proposal which they say would still mean accepting stricter rules than those in place since almost three decades ago. “It’s an offer along the lines of—I stole 100 zloty, and I’ll give you back 50,” said Katarzyna Lubnauer, an opposition politician. They have now expanded their demands beyond issues of reproductive rights, to a cleanup of the politics courts system and ultimately an ousting of Poland’s cabinet.
The government is now in a precarious position. The unpopular verdict, along with spiraling new coronavirus cases and deaths, have left it hemorrhaging popular support. A survey on Sunday showed support for PiS—which last autumn won elections with 44 percent of the vote—dropping from 42 to 29 percent support since the start of October.
The protest’s organizers have fought off politicians tagging onto its momentum. The main centrist opposition, mostly absent from unfolding events, also slumped by 4 percentage points in the same survey. Voters instead flocked to Poland 2050, a new formation built around by Szymon Holownia, a devout Catholic and popular television host who came third in this year’s presidential race and has retained the allure of a political outsider.
The PiS chairman is personally in a riskier spot than when he last faced a popular backlash. Back in 2016, his party had just resoundingly won elections on the promise to introduce new welfare measures, including popular child benefits. This time its flagship public housing scheme has just flopped, and there are growing grumbles from businesses maimed by the coronavirus lockdown. Previously Kaczynski could also rely on the loyalty of the newly elected PiS-allied president. Now that Duda has just been chosen for another five years—which will also be his last under Poland’s presidential term limits—he has less of an incentive to fall in line.
The demonstrations flaunt many young faces, and have been characterized by humorous placards with a handful of angry invective. “The protest has become a fight for recognition of the political demands of a younger generation,” explains Professor Marciniak. They also show no signs of backing down, with new formal structures in place and more street protests scheduled for days ahead. What’s already clear is that PiS, by accomplishing a long-held ideological goal, has weakened its own grip on power.