foreignpolicy--2020-03-14--No End in Sight to the Oil Price War Between Russia and Saudi Arabia

No End in Sight to the Oil Price War Between Russia and Saudi Arabia Russia and Saudi Arabia , two of the world ’ s biggest oil producers , are each making a bet that they are better placed than the other to bear the pain of the oil price war that they set off over the past week—and that they can get what they want as a result .
That raises two big questions : Are they able to stand the pain ?
And what exactly do they want ?
One week ago , as Saudi Arabia and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vienna to plan production cuts that could put a floor under falling prices due to the outbreak of coronavirus , crude was trading at more than $ 50 a barrel .
That ’ s when Moscow decided to blow up a three-year-old pact to manage global oil supplies , refusing to sign on to Saudi Arabia ’ s proposed cuts , sending the price of oil sharply down .
Riyadh responded not with unilateral cuts of its own but in the opposite direction : It slashed selling prices for its oil and later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , further driving down the price of oil that was already plunging due to the disease outbreak and its toll on the global economy .
Oil trades today around $ 33 a barrel .
For Russia and Saudi Arabia , both more or less dependent on oil sales to fund their national budgets , it was—and still is—a dangerous game of chicken .
Russia figured that it could afford to walk away from its informal cooperation with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries , even if that meant crashing the price of oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ First , it has tucked lots of money away in the years since the last oil-price crash , giving it a big financial cushion .
Second , the biggest losers in any oil-price war , Russia figures , will be high-cost U.S. shale producers ; driving the price down would both inflict economic harm on the United States and undermine its ability to wield its favorite tool of international coercion : sanctions .
“ Russia is better positioned to survive this crisis , ” said Sofya Donets , the chief Russia economist at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ central bank officer .
“ It will be tough , but they have enough resources to pull through.
” Russia has spent the last five years tightening its budget and building up $ 550 billion in reserves that officials say will let it cope with oil prices between $ 25 and $ 30 a barrel for up to a decade , if need be .
On Monday , Russia ’ s finance ministry said that it would draw from its $ 150 billion national wealth fund in order to supplement the budget even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crude sells for an average of $ 27 a barrel—it was in the low- $ 30s most of this week—Russia would need to draw $ 20 billion a year from the fund to balance the budget .
That war chest is the result of Moscow ’ s decision to restructure its economy after it was pushed into recession in 2015—following the last big one-two punch of Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea and OPEC ’ s decision to open the spigots the year before .
While efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emphasized stability over growth in recent years , and in many ways it is now in a better position to weather the current shock than it was the last time around .
There is one problem , though : Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to spend more .
Putin rode the oil boom of the early 2000s to a strong economy and huge popularity—but that ’ s a harder act to maintain when oil prices plummet .
With economic growth a focal point of Putin ’ s current presidential term—and with his time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increases in infrastructure investment and social spending are central to his future and key to promises to help turn around long-stagnant living standards .
Lowered incomes and austerity have been the source of his falling popularity and a key factor behind a January government reshuffle that saw Dmitry Medvedev pushed out as prime minister .
Before oil prices collapsed , the government planned to tap the wealth fund to help drive a slew of projects central to its growth agenda .
But a prolonged oil price war could force them to go back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is not another [ OPEC+ ] agreement by the middle of the summer and oil stabilizes around $ 30 a barrel , then Russia will have to adjust , ” said Natalia Orlova , the chief economist at Alfa-Bank in Moscow .
A weaker ruble will offset some of the budgetary support lost due to low oil prices , but if oil prices stay low , the Russian government will need to cut spending or raise taxes , possibly both—neither of which is politically appealing .
“ The national wealth fund is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things look bad , they will have to tighten the budget or increase tax collection , ” Orlova said .
“ In a way , this would be paid by Russian consumers.
” What Russia wanted when it made this gamble was to kill off U.S. shale oil production once and for all .
Igor Sechin , the head of Russia ’ s state-controlled oil giant Rosneft and a close confidant of Putin , has argued that efforts to keep oil prices high by limiting output only boosted shale oil production in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share was the Kremlin ’ s main objective by pulling out of the Saudi deal .
With the shale patch facing high production costs and loads of debt , Russia figures cheap oil will push many U.S. firms into bankruptcy or restructuring .
The added benefit of reducing U.S. oil output could also limit America ’ s ability to levy sanctions , such as the ones it slapped on a unit of Rosneft for doing business with Venezuela .
In one way , Russia ’ s right—the shale producers , loaded with high-yielding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blow up the whole U.S. corporate debt market .
If Russia wants to push buttons to cause chaos in the United States , that ’ s a good one .
That ’ s why some experts are calling for a very targeted government intervention—not to save the billionaire oil executives , but to forestall a wider credit collapse .
“ If you want to limit bankruptcies and keep shale from destabilizing credit markets , you ’ d want to see the U.S. Treasury look at term lending options to forestall defaults , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expert at the Council on Foreign Relations , suggesting ideas like asset-backed loan facilities that would prevent defaults .
“ I don ’ t think we should be worried about the oilmen per se , but we should be worried about the credit markets.
” But the U.S. shale industry has proved resilient in the past , as when OPEC tried to smother it in 2014 and 2015 with a flood of cheap oil .
When prices fall , U.S. production falls , just enough to get prices up , and then rigs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. oil industry may have less cushion now than before , it could still absorb a few body blows .
That ’ s why some puzzle over the latest Russian effort to kill shale dead .
“ It ’ s all really strange .
If you look at the numbers and data , it makes no sense , ” said Sergei Guriev , a professor of economics at Sciences Po in Paris and the former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development .
“ The only explanation is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who don ’ t have a comprehensive analysis of the markets and don ’ t grasp how the American oil industry works.
” Many are equally puzzled by the Saudi decision not only to forgo production cuts but also to slash prices and boost production to drive prices even further down .
If Russia threw the first punch , Riyadh , like U.S. baseball legend Billy Martin , threw the second four .
It seemed a risky move by a young and inexperienced Saudi crown prince , Mohammed bin Salman , who has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ de facto control of the kingdom , from the disastrous war in Yemen to a bonesaw approach to dealing with dissidents like Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi .
On paper , Saudi Arabia—which needs oil to be roughly twice as expensive as Russia does in order to balance its budget—is playing with fire by pushing prices down to force Russia to rejoin the informal OPEC+ grouping .
“ It is reckless in some ways—he is trying to do a ‘ shock and awe ’ attack , telling the Russians , ‘ We mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shirt , you will too , so you better get back in line , ’ ” said Jean-François Seznec , an expert on oil and Saudi Arabia at the Atlantic Council .
Saudi Arabia has cash reserves to withstand lower prices , though less than it did in 2014—and less than Russia does today , given its budget imperatives .
Saudi Arabia was already on track for a fiscal deficit of about $ 50 billion , and lower oil revenues will boost that by another $ 70 billion , for a $ 120 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war chest could take that for about four years at best—but Riyadh is clearly hoping for a short and sharp oil war .
“ They knew that going in , and they figured the Russians would give in quickly , thinking a 30-day war , ” Seznec said .
“ But the Russians think the Saudis will also give up quickly.
” The stakes for Saudi Arabia go beyond short-term survival and touch on transformation .
Mohammed bin Salman has a hugely ambitious plan—Saudi Vision 2030—to spend billions to turn the Saudi economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a modern economy .
But that requires ready cash , which will be in short supply the longer the oil-price war lasts .
“ I think he is killing his own Saudi Vision plan , ” Seznec said .
Others see method in the madness .
Though prices have collapsed and Saudi Arabia is ramping up production and exports dramatically , that may not be a net loss for the kingdom , said Anas Alhajji , an expert on the Saudi oil sector .
Oil prices were already cratering due to the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 7-plus million barrels a day to 9-plus million barrels a day , or even more , Saudi Arabia can make the same amount of money as it would have in a world without Russian cooperation , but snatching more market share , Alhajji noted .
In the end , both Russia and Saudi Arabia are gambling that the other will blink first .
Both have reasons to think they ’ re right .
There are reasons both , or either , could be wrong .
Both are planning for short-term pain to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms .
“ It reminds me of the First World War , when France and Germany went to war thinking they ’ d be home by Christmas , and spent four years in the trenches , ” Seznec said .
“ That ’ s why this is so dangerous—it ’ s a mirror image .
”

Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world’s biggest oil producers, are each making a bet that they are better placed than the other to bear the pain of the oil price war that they set off over the past week—and that they can get what they want as a result.
Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the world’s biggest oil producers, are each making a bet that they are better placed than the other to bear the pain of the oil price war that they set off over the past week—and that they can get what they want as a result.
That raises two big questions: Are they able to stand the pain? And what exactly do they want?
One week ago, as Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC countries and Russia gathered in Vienna to plan production cuts that could put a floor under falling prices due to the outbreak of coronavirus, crude was trading at more than $50 a barrel. That’s when Moscow decided to blow up a three-year-old pact to manage global oil supplies, refusing to sign on to Saudi Arabia’s proposed cuts, sending the price of oil sharply down.
Riyadh responded not with unilateral cuts of its own but in the opposite direction: It slashed selling prices for its oil and later announced plans to massively increase oil output, further driving down the price of oil that was already plunging due to the disease outbreak and its toll on the global economy. Oil trades today around $33 a barrel.
For Russia and Saudi Arabia, both more or less dependent on oil sales to fund their national budgets, it was—and still is—a dangerous game of chicken.
Russia figured that it could afford to walk away from its informal cooperation with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, even if that meant crashing the price of oil, for a few simple reasons. First, it has tucked lots of money away in the years since the last oil-price crash, giving it a big financial cushion. Second, the biggest losers in any oil-price war, Russia figures, will be high-cost U.S. shale producers; driving the price down would both inflict economic harm on the United States and undermine its ability to wield its favorite tool of international coercion: sanctions.
“Russia is better positioned to survive this crisis,” said Sofya Donets, the chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital and a former senior Russian central bank officer. “It will be tough, but they have enough resources to pull through.”
Russia has spent the last five years tightening its budget and building up $550 billion in reserves that officials say will let it cope with oil prices between $25 and $30 a barrel for up to a decade, if need be. On Monday, Russia’s finance ministry said that it would draw from its $150 billion national wealth fund in order to supplement the budget even if oil prices stay low. If crude sells for an average of $27 a barrel—it was in the low-$30s most of this week—Russia would need to draw $20 billion a year from the fund to balance the budget.
That war chest is the result of Moscow’s decision to restructure its economy after it was pushed into recession in 2015—following the last big one-two punch of Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea and OPEC’s decision to open the spigots the year before. While efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons have largely fallen flat, Moscow has emphasized stability over growth in recent years, and in many ways it is now in a better position to weather the current shock than it was the last time around.
There is one problem, though: Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to spend more. Putin rode the oil boom of the early 2000s to a strong economy and huge popularity—but that’s a harder act to maintain when oil prices plummet. With economic growth a focal point of Putin’s current presidential term—and with his time in office now possibly extending until 2036—big increases in infrastructure investment and social spending are central to his future and key to promises to help turn around long-stagnant living standards. Lowered incomes and austerity have been the source of his falling popularity and a key factor behind a January government reshuffle that saw Dmitry Medvedev pushed out as prime minister.
Before oil prices collapsed, the government planned to tap the wealth fund to help drive a slew of projects central to its growth agenda. But a prolonged oil price war could force them to go back to the drawing board.
“If there is not another [OPEC+] agreement by the middle of the summer and oil stabilizes around $30 a barrel, then Russia will have to adjust,” said Natalia Orlova, the chief economist at Alfa-Bank in Moscow.
A weaker ruble will offset some of the budgetary support lost due to low oil prices, but if oil prices stay low, the Russian government will need to cut spending or raise taxes, possibly both—neither of which is politically appealing.
“The national wealth fund is for use in emergency cases. If things look bad, they will have to tighten the budget or increase tax collection,” Orlova said. “In a way, this would be paid by Russian consumers.”
What Russia wanted when it made this gamble was to kill off U.S. shale oil production once and for all. Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s state-controlled oil giant Rosneft and a close confidant of Putin, has argued that efforts to keep oil prices high by limiting output only boosted shale oil production in the United States; clawing back that market share was the Kremlin’s main objective by pulling out of the Saudi deal.
With the shale patch facing high production costs and loads of debt, Russia figures cheap oil will push many U.S. firms into bankruptcy or restructuring. The added benefit of reducing U.S. oil output could also limit America’s ability to levy sanctions, such as the ones it slapped on a unit of Rosneft for doing business with Venezuela.
In one way, Russia’s right—the shale producers, loaded with high-yielding debt, are a fuse that could blow up the whole U.S. corporate debt market. If Russia wants to push buttons to cause chaos in the United States, that’s a good one. That’s why some experts are calling for a very targeted government intervention—not to save the billionaire oil executives, but to forestall a wider credit collapse.
“If you want to limit bankruptcies and keep shale from destabilizing credit markets, you’d want to see the U.S. Treasury look at term lending options to forestall defaults,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, suggesting ideas like asset-backed loan facilities that would prevent defaults. “I don’t think we should be worried about the oilmen per se, but we should be worried about the credit markets.”
But the U.S. shale industry has proved resilient in the past, as when OPEC tried to smother it in 2014 and 2015 with a flood of cheap oil. When prices fall, U.S. production falls, just enough to get prices up, and then rigs start pumping again—a self-regulating mechanism. While the U.S. oil industry may have less cushion now than before, it could still absorb a few body blows. That’s why some puzzle over the latest Russian effort to kill shale dead.
“It’s all really strange. If you look at the numbers and data, it makes no sense,” said Sergei Guriev, a professor of economics at Sciences Po in Paris and the former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “The only explanation is that it’s a miscalculation by people who don’t have a comprehensive analysis of the markets and don’t grasp how the American oil industry works.”
Many are equally puzzled by the Saudi decision not only to forgo production cuts but also to slash prices and boost production to drive prices even further down. If Russia threw the first punch, Riyadh, like U.S. baseball legend Billy Martin, threw the second four.
It seemed a risky move by a young and inexperienced Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who has overseen bold yet catastrophic moves since taking de facto control of the kingdom, from the disastrous war in Yemen to a bonesaw approach to dealing with dissidents like Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. On paper, Saudi Arabia—which needs oil to be roughly twice as expensive as Russia does in order to balance its budget—is playing with fire by pushing prices down to force Russia to rejoin the informal OPEC+ grouping.
“It is reckless in some ways—he is trying to do a ‘shock and awe’ attack, telling the Russians, ‘We mean business, and if we lose our shirt, you will too, so you better get back in line,’” said Jean-François Seznec, an expert on oil and Saudi Arabia at the Atlantic Council.
Saudi Arabia has cash reserves to withstand lower prices, though less than it did in 2014—and less than Russia does today, given its budget imperatives. Saudi Arabia was already on track for a fiscal deficit of about $50 billion, and lower oil revenues will boost that by another $70 billion, for a $120 billion annual hit. The Saudi financial war chest could take that for about four years at best—but Riyadh is clearly hoping for a short and sharp oil war.
“They knew that going in, and they figured the Russians would give in quickly, thinking a 30-day war,” Seznec said. “But the Russians think the Saudis will also give up quickly.”
The stakes for Saudi Arabia go beyond short-term survival and touch on transformation. Mohammed bin Salman has a hugely ambitious plan—Saudi Vision 2030—to spend billions to turn the Saudi economy from an oil-rentier state into something resembling a modern economy. But that requires ready cash, which will be in short supply the longer the oil-price war lasts.
“I think he is killing his own Saudi Vision plan,” Seznec said.
Others see method in the madness. Though prices have collapsed and Saudi Arabia is ramping up production and exports dramatically, that may not be a net loss for the kingdom, said Anas Alhajji, an expert on the Saudi oil sector. Oil prices were already cratering due to the virus and Russian intransigence. By raising exports from 7-plus million barrels a day to 9-plus million barrels a day, or even more, Saudi Arabia can make the same amount of money as it would have in a world without Russian cooperation, but snatching more market share, Alhajji noted.
In the end, both Russia and Saudi Arabia are gambling that the other will blink first. Both have reasons to think they’re right. There are reasons both, or either, could be wrong. Both are planning for short-term pain to compel the other to submit on their terms.
“It reminds me of the First World War, when France and Germany went to war thinking they’d be home by Christmas, and spent four years in the trenches,” Seznec said. “That’s why this is so dangerous—it’s a mirror image.”


foreignpolicy--2020-03-14--Why Scientists Should Shape Environmental Policy

Solar power , wind energy , smart grids , and energy storage often command the current discourse on energy innovation .
Yet none of these technologies has transformed the U.S. energy landscape to the degree of high-volume hydraulic fracturing , known as “ fracking , ” which is unlocking previously inaccessible crude oil and natural gas from underground reservoirs .
Thanks to fracking , the 40-year decline in U.S. domestic crude oil production has reversed , and the United States has recently become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time .
For many , this record-setting pace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cause for celebration , because it reflects a continued reliance on fossil fuels .
Nevertheless , fracking has made oil and gas plentiful and cheap , making these energy resources hard to resist .
Like it or not , we may depend on oil and gas—and the technologies that produce them—for the foreseeable future .
Fracking begins after a gas or oil well is drilled and involves injecting a mixture of water , sand , and chemical additives into rock .
The high pressure causes the rock to fracture , providing conduits for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nearby wellbore .
Public perceptions of fracking are shaped by controversies between an industry that has downplayed the risks of fracking and the citizens alleging that it has polluted air , contaminated drinking water , and scarred landscapes .
People within communities hosting fracking were scared , looking to experts to make sense of this issue .
While experts were easy to find , definitive answers were in short supply .
The deployment of fracking had raced ahead of the science needed to illuminate its potential impacts .
As fracking activities evolve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a science-based approach to management of fracking activities—one that engages the fossil fuel industry , while drawing from the research of independent scientists .
Although water withdrawals for fracking were not imposing undue stress on Pennsylvania ’ s streams and rivers , problems arose when industry tried to put this used water back .
Fracking wastewater is exceptionally salty and may contain naturally occurring radioactive materials , such as radium , in addition to various hydrocarbon compounds .
Much of this wastewater was discharged into streams and rivers after processing at treatment facilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to handle the briny wastewater .
Trouble sprouted in 2008 , when monitoring of the Monongahela River in southwestern Pennsylvania—a source of drinking water for 1 million people—revealed that the waterway carried elevated loads of bromide , a precursor in the formation of cancer-causing brominated disinfection byproducts .
Two years later , the Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority observed increases in those byproducts in its drinking water , linked to the discharge of Marcellus wastewater into the Allegheny River and its tributaries .
Fears of contamination from intentional discharges were compounded by uncontrolled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and wastewater from leaks at fracking sites , trucking accidents , and illegal dumping .
Spills and stream salinization were not the only problems .
Methane was detected in high levels in well waters of more than a dozen households in the small town of Dimock .
The homeowners blamed nearby gas wells that were drilled and fracked by Cabot Oil and Gas .
While not toxic , methane is flammable , and its release into the enclosed airspace at the top of a water well can lead to an explosion .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ settlement , but , as part of the settlement terms , was not required to acknowledge responsibility for the contamination .
The first scientific study published after the Dimock incident received considerable public attention .
By leveraging chemical fingerprinting techniques , the scientists attributed the source of methane present in a subset of 60 well-water samples to industry activities .
Although methane does occur naturally in Pennsylvania ’ s drinking-water aquifers , a recent analysis of environmental records revealed that 39 wells drilled into the Marcellus Shale between 2004 and 2015 allowed methane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The problems encountered at the outset of the shale gas boom did not arise from a lack of regulation .
Pennsylvania had a regulatory framework built around more than a century ’ s experience with conventional oil and gas extraction .
Though bad actors existed , most natural gas producers did not operate with careless disregard for the environment , instituting practices to protect surface water and groundwater .
But neither the state nor industry was fully prepared for the new management challenges posed by the rapid diffusion of fracking .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strengthened policies intended to safeguard freshwater and human health .
To address rising salinity , the state banned shipments of Marcellus wastewaters to municipal treatment plants unless the waste was pretreated to more restrictive standards .
Regulations for storing and containing wastewater , drilling fluids , and fracking solutions were updated to lower the likelihood of uncontrolled releases at fracking sites .
The state also issued new rules for well construction intended to reduce incidences of methane leakage .
These regulatory improvements have not put Pennsylvania in the clear .
In the six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state ’ s Department of Environmental Protection has documented more than 100 new cases of water supply contamination caused by oil and gas operations .
This figure may underestimate the real extent of the problem , because settlements reached between the industry and homeowners need not be disclosed .
To compound these present dangers , new threats to freshwater quality and supply may emerge as infrastructure ages and as industry practices evolve to minimize costs and maximize fossil fuel recovery .
Pennsylvania ’ s experience suggests that the challenge of safeguarding freshwater resources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fossil fuels continue to be pulled from the ground .
Meeting this challenge in a sustained way requires management and policy approaches that better leverage data and science in decision-making .
The nature of interactions between the fossil fuel industry and environmental scientists typically ranges from disregardful to hostile .
Environmental scientists have focused on the effects of unconventional oil and gas development on water and air quality , with studies that show adverse effects gaining widespread attention and industry scorn .
The industry has tried to discredit these studies , inviting criticism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up problems than addressing them .
This adversarial relationship hurts industry and environmental scientists alike .
Environmental scientists are excluded from access to monitoring sites , operational information , and other industry data that would strengthen their research .
Industry also misses out , scuttling the opportunity to partner with environmental scientists on problem-solving and giving up the chance for constructive dialogue .
The tendency for each group to remain in its own silo has engendered mistrust , leading to disagreement that can paralyze progress toward better environmental management .
Though rare , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of fracking impacts have been forged .
For example , a consortium of companies has engaged with universities coordinated largely by the Environmental Defense Fund to assess atmospheric methane emissions from oil and gas operations .
I lead a team of researchers at Yale University that has leveraged a collaboration with industry to explore the potential groundwater impacts of shale gas development in Pennsylvania .
A formal agreement with Southwestern Energy gave Yale researchers the schedules and locations of gas well projects for the company ’ s Marcellus acreage .
With this information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediately adjacent to gas wells and measured changes in water quality over two years as several gas wells were drilled , fracked , and brought into production .
The Yale-Southwestern Energy study is a proof of concept , demonstrating that collaborative , scientific analysis of freshwater impacts of fracking-related activities is feasible .
It serves as a template that must be replicated with production companies that operate in different regions and that employ a variety of practices and methodologies .
Coordination of this science is critical so that outcomes from different studies can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and knowledge can be exchanged with policymakers .
An advisory board , chaired by a delegate from the host state ’ s department of environmental protection and composed of industry members , as well as qualified scientists , could manage the process .
Someone must pay for this science , of course .
The Yale-Southwestern Energy study cost just over $ 500,000—which may seem expensive but is less than one-fourth of the cost incurred to put one Marcellus well into production .
Companies may elect to pay for these studies , recognizing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local communities and contributes to science-based regulation that may be less burdensome to them .
State taxes on oil and gas extraction could also pay for the science .
Consider that just 1 percent of Pennsylvania ’ s 2018 natural gas impact fee would pay for the first year of eight studies like the one led by Yale .
In such cases , funding agreements must be structured to maintain the integrity of the scientific process .
Our own experience indicates that it is possible to establish agreement on terms that ensure scientific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that place no restrictions on the dissemination of findings .
More science is essential , but alone it is not enough to guarantee clean drinking water in areas with fracking or determine how and where unconventional oil and gas development should proceed .
Policymaking institutions must listen and be responsive to new science .
Policymakers must also make resources available to ensure that policies are adequately enforced .
And we must make a faithful accounting of fracking costs and benefits that reflects our best knowledge .
Although science is only part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ management of unconventional oil and gas development is to lead the way by providing decision-makers with credible information on environmental impacts and innovative approaches for addressing them .
When environmental policy builds on careful science , rigorously analyzed data , and solid facts—pursued without fear of upsetting interested parties or overturning prevailing wisdom—innovative solutions often emerge .

Solar power, wind energy, smart grids, and energy storage often command the current discourse on energy innovation. Yet none of these technologies has transformed the U.S. energy landscape to the degree of high-volume hydraulic fracturing, known as “fracking,” which is unlocking previously inaccessible crude oil and natural gas from underground reservoirs. Thanks to fracking, the 40-year decline in U.S. domestic crude oil production has reversed, and the United States has recently become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time.
Solar power, wind energy, smart grids, and energy storage often command the current discourse on energy innovation. Yet none of these technologies has transformed the U.S. energy landscape to the degree of high-volume hydraulic fracturing, known as “fracking,” which is unlocking previously inaccessible crude oil and natural gas from underground reservoirs. Thanks to fracking, the 40-year decline in U.S. domestic crude oil production has reversed, and the United States has recently become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time.
A Better Planet: Forty Big Ideas for a Sustainable Future, edited by Daniel C. Esty, Yale University Press, 416 pp., , October 2019
For many, this record-setting pace of oil and gas production is no cause for celebration, because it reflects a continued reliance on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, fracking has made oil and gas plentiful and cheap, making these energy resources hard to resist. Like it or not, we may depend on oil and gas—and the technologies that produce them—for the foreseeable future.
Fracking begins after a gas or oil well is drilled and involves injecting a mixture of water, sand, and chemical additives into rock. The high pressure causes the rock to fracture, providing conduits for the oil and gas to flow into the nearby wellbore. Public perceptions of fracking are shaped by controversies between an industry that has downplayed the risks of fracking and the citizens alleging that it has polluted air, contaminated drinking water, and scarred landscapes.
People within communities hosting fracking were scared, looking to experts to make sense of this issue. While experts were easy to find, definitive answers were in short supply. The deployment of fracking had raced ahead of the science needed to illuminate its potential impacts. As fracking activities evolve, uncertainties remain. We must advance a science-based approach to management of fracking activities—one that engages the fossil fuel industry, while drawing from the research of independent scientists.
The natural gas company Range Resources inaugurated Pennsylvania’s shale gas rush in 2004, targeting the Marcellus Shale, which extends from West Virginia to the southern tier of New York State. The shale gas boom revitalized many of Pennsylvania’s small towns. Still, not everyone was happy. Residents grew frustrated with the traffic to and from drilling sites, noise, bright lights, and dust. Tensions mounted between residents who held lucrative natural gas leases and those forced to endure the inconveniences without benefiting from the financial windfall. And the public was becoming increasingly concerned about its water.
Although water withdrawals for fracking were not imposing undue stress on Pennsylvania’s streams and rivers, problems arose when industry tried to put this used water back. Fracking wastewater is exceptionally salty and may contain naturally occurring radioactive materials, such as radium, in addition to various hydrocarbon compounds. Much of this wastewater was discharged into streams and rivers after processing at treatment facilities.
The treatment plants were not equipped to handle the briny wastewater. Trouble sprouted in 2008, when monitoring of the Monongahela River in southwestern Pennsylvania—a source of drinking water for 1 million people—revealed that the waterway carried elevated loads of bromide, a precursor in the formation of cancer-causing brominated disinfection byproducts. Two years later, the Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority observed increases in those byproducts in its drinking water, linked to the discharge of Marcellus wastewater into the Allegheny River and its tributaries. Fears of contamination from intentional discharges were compounded by uncontrolled releases of fracking fluids, drilling fluids, and wastewater from leaks at fracking sites, trucking accidents, and illegal dumping.
Spills and stream salinization were not the only problems. Methane was detected in high levels in well waters of more than a dozen households in the small town of Dimock. The homeowners blamed nearby gas wells that were drilled and fracked by Cabot Oil and Gas. While not toxic, methane is flammable, and its release into the enclosed airspace at the top of a water well can lead to an explosion. Cabot Oil and Gas eventually reached a settlement, but, as part of the settlement terms, was not required to acknowledge responsibility for the contamination.
The first scientific study published after the Dimock incident received considerable public attention. By leveraging chemical fingerprinting techniques, the scientists attributed the source of methane present in a subset of 60 well-water samples to industry activities. Although methane does occur naturally in Pennsylvania’s drinking-water aquifers, a recent analysis of environmental records revealed that 39 wells drilled into the Marcellus Shale between 2004 and 2015 allowed methane migration that impacted 108 drinking water supplies.
The problems encountered at the outset of the shale gas boom did not arise from a lack of regulation. Pennsylvania had a regulatory framework built around more than a century’s experience with conventional oil and gas extraction. Though bad actors existed, most natural gas producers did not operate with careless disregard for the environment, instituting practices to protect surface water and groundwater. But neither the state nor industry was fully prepared for the new management challenges posed by the rapid diffusion of fracking.
As awareness of the impacts grew, regulators strengthened policies intended to safeguard freshwater and human health. To address rising salinity, the state banned shipments of Marcellus wastewaters to municipal treatment plants unless the waste was pretreated to more restrictive standards. Regulations for storing and containing wastewater, drilling fluids, and fracking solutions were updated to lower the likelihood of uncontrolled releases at fracking sites. The state also issued new rules for well construction intended to reduce incidences of methane leakage.
These regulatory improvements have not put Pennsylvania in the clear. In the six years since regulations were strengthened, the state’s Department of Environmental Protection has documented more than 100 new cases of water supply contamination caused by oil and gas operations. This figure may underestimate the real extent of the problem, because settlements reached between the industry and homeowners need not be disclosed. To compound these present dangers, new threats to freshwater quality and supply may emerge as infrastructure ages and as industry practices evolve to minimize costs and maximize fossil fuel recovery.
Pennsylvania’s experience suggests that the challenge of safeguarding freshwater resources from fracking will persist as long as fossil fuels continue to be pulled from the ground. Meeting this challenge in a sustained way requires management and policy approaches that better leverage data and science in decision-making.
While most of the risks posed to freshwater resources by fracking-related activities have been identified, they have defied quantification. The efficacy of policies that aim to prevent contamination have not been thoroughly tested. Management in the midst of this uncertainty should be adaptive—a scientific way of learning while doing. Adaptive management begins by identifying actions or interventions that might solve a defined problem, followed by monitoring the outcomes of those interventions, and then making adjustments to resolve any inadequacies. For adaptive management to work, industry must engage with managers and scientists from the environmental community. The track record for this type of collaboration is not especially strong, but there are encouraging signs and reasons for hope.
The nature of interactions between the fossil fuel industry and environmental scientists typically ranges from disregardful to hostile. Environmental scientists have focused on the effects of unconventional oil and gas development on water and air quality, with studies that show adverse effects gaining widespread attention and industry scorn. The industry has tried to discredit these studies, inviting criticism that they are more invested in covering up problems than addressing them.
This adversarial relationship hurts industry and environmental scientists alike. Environmental scientists are excluded from access to monitoring sites, operational information, and other industry data that would strengthen their research. Industry also misses out, scuttling the opportunity to partner with environmental scientists on problem-solving and giving up the chance for constructive dialogue. The tendency for each group to remain in its own silo has engendered mistrust, leading to disagreement that can paralyze progress toward better environmental management.
Though rare, cooperative arrangements with industry enabling scientific assessment of fracking impacts have been forged. For example, a consortium of companies has engaged with universities coordinated largely by the Environmental Defense Fund to assess atmospheric methane emissions from oil and gas operations. I lead a team of researchers at Yale University that has leveraged a collaboration with industry to explore the potential groundwater impacts of shale gas development in Pennsylvania. A formal agreement with Southwestern Energy gave Yale researchers the schedules and locations of gas well projects for the company’s Marcellus acreage. With this information, our team installed groundwater monitoring wells immediately adjacent to gas wells and measured changes in water quality over two years as several gas wells were drilled, fracked, and brought into production.
The Yale-Southwestern Energy study is a proof of concept, demonstrating that collaborative, scientific analysis of freshwater impacts of fracking-related activities is feasible. It serves as a template that must be replicated with production companies that operate in different regions and that employ a variety of practices and methodologies. Coordination of this science is critical so that outcomes from different studies can be compared, adaptive management can proceed, and knowledge can be exchanged with policymakers. An advisory board, chaired by a delegate from the host state’s department of environmental protection and composed of industry members, as well as qualified scientists, could manage the process.
Someone must pay for this science, of course. The Yale-Southwestern Energy study cost just over $500,000—which may seem expensive but is less than one-fourth of the cost incurred to put one Marcellus well into production. Companies may elect to pay for these studies, recognizing that the investment helps build trust within local communities and contributes to science-based regulation that may be less burdensome to them. State taxes on oil and gas extraction could also pay for the science. Consider that just 1 percent of Pennsylvania’s 2018 natural gas impact fee would pay for the first year of eight studies like the one led by Yale. In such cases, funding agreements must be structured to maintain the integrity of the scientific process. Our own experience indicates that it is possible to establish agreement on terms that ensure scientific analyses can proceed without industry interference and that place no restrictions on the dissemination of findings.
More science is essential, but alone it is not enough to guarantee clean drinking water in areas with fracking or determine how and where unconventional oil and gas development should proceed. Policymaking institutions must listen and be responsive to new science. Policymakers must also make resources available to ensure that policies are adequately enforced. And we must make a faithful accounting of fracking costs and benefits that reflects our best knowledge.
Although science is only part of the solution, its proper role in the management of unconventional oil and gas development is to lead the way by providing decision-makers with credible information on environmental impacts and innovative approaches for addressing them. When environmental policy builds on careful science, rigorously analyzed data, and solid facts—pursued without fear of upsetting interested parties or overturning prevailing wisdom—innovative solutions often emerge.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-15--New York Officials Tell  UN Coronavirus Has Spread Throughout City

New York Officials Tell UN Coronavirus Has Spread Throughout City New York City officials advised the U.N. diplomatic community on Saturday that the coronavirus has spread widely through the city and could potentially linger as a threat to the health of residents until as late as September .
“ Everyone in New York should assume that they have been in contact with COVID 19 , ” according to a read out of a conference call with New York-based diplomats , which was reviewed by Foreign Policy .
The briefers , who were led by Penny Abeywardena , New York City @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for International Affairs , and included officials from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene , outlined a series of “ best practices ” to help foreign delegations get through the crisis .
But they offered no assurance that the city would provide special services to foreign diplomats exposed to the virus in New York , including tests .
“ There are no particular measures , ” according to the read-out , which was produced by the Mayor ’ s Office for International Affairs .
“ If you ’ re sick , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ save New York.
” The briefing to the diplomatic community came on a day when the number of confirmed cases of infections in New York State rose to 613 , including 269 in New York City .
They included a 65-year-old man from Rockland County , an 82-year-old Brooklyn woman , who were declared the state ’ s first coronavirus fatalities , and two New York State Assembly members , Helene Weinstein , 67 , and Charles Barron , 69 .
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio meanwhile announced the administration was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ telecommuting or a staffer work schedule for about 100,000 city employees , ” the New York Times reported .
De Blasio , however , has resisted calls for shutting down the city public school system , the largest in the country .
During the Saturday afternoon briefing , New York City medical officials emphasized that New York is “ in the mitigation phase of the outbreak , ” according to the read-out .
“ This means that all individuals should assume that they have had some contact with the virus and practice maximum-possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mild and medical care should only be sought in urgent , worsening , or vulnerable cases.
” The briefers characterized the most vulnerable as the elderly , particularly those over 70 years of age , and individuals over the age of 50 with underlying health conditions .
City officials appeared to douse expectations , raised by President Donald Trump in a televised press conference with executives of major U.S. corporations , that testing would become widely available .
Asked if there would be a list of testing centers made available to foreign missions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You will be tested if a doctor advises ; calling 311 can give access to a provider if a patient doesn ’ t have one.
” “ Testing should be reserved for the sickest ( hospitalized ) patients , ” the account said .
The officials said that the city has changed its strategy from the early days that the virus arrived in New York , when health authorities sought to track and contain small numbers of cases .
“ Testing is now less important — the danger of transmission is much higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the majority of people will only have mild symptoms , ” according to the read out .
The city ’ s strategy appeared inconsistent with the advice of the World Health Organization , which has urged governments to combine containment policies , like contact tracing , with mitigation policies aimed at preventing the transmission of the virus through so-called social distancing and the prohibition of large public gatherings .
Those who exhibit symptoms associated with coronavirus — fever , dry coughs , difficulty breathing — should isolate themselves from others .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s advice if symptoms are rapidly worsening or they experience shortness of breath .
Any doctor ’ s office , they added , has the authority to order a test if needed .
The ill should avoid seeking emergency care “ except if advised by a doctor , and if co-morbidities are present , such as cancer , elderly , etc.
” They said that the Department of Health is no longer asking for information about infections unless they are part of a “ suspected high-risk cluster.
” “ Interviews with confirmed cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use of our resources when the virus is widespread , ” according to the read-out .
“ There will be little emphasis on tracing.
” The city ’ s health officials said that those infected with coronavirus remain infectious for about 72 hours after their initial fever abates , but that they should remain in isolation for an additional seven days after the symptoms subside.
“ We are hopeful that exposure to COVID will make people immune , but too early to say definitely , ” according to the account .
Diplomats said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in describing the crisis .
But they expressed some concern about the city ’ s commitment to address all their needs .
For instance , the delegations would be responsible for disinfecting their own mission ’ s in the event of an outbreak , noting that the city lacked sufficient supplies for them .
New York officials also said that it was unlikely they would notify foreign delegations if one of their nationals tested positive , citing the importance of maintaining patient privacy .
The officials said they were unable to guarantee the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomatic immunity to travel in restricted areas , saying they “ would have to balance imunities with the needs of the community.
” One senior diplomat , who spoke on condition of anonymity because the briefing was confidential , said the basic takeaway was : “ It ’ s your responsibility not to get infected , and your responsibility to stay home if you do .
Your odds of not dying are rather great — if you get close ‘ give us a call .
’ ”

New York City officials advised the U.N. diplomatic community on Saturday that the new coronavirus has spread widely through the city and could potentially linger as a threat to the health of residents until as late as September, according to four diplomatic sources.
New York City officials advised the U.N. diplomatic community on Saturday that the new coronavirus has spread widely through the city and could potentially linger as a threat to the health of residents until as late as September, according to four diplomatic sources.
“Everyone in New York should assume that they have been in contact with COVID-19,” city officials told the foreign delegates, according to a readout of a conference call with New York-based diplomats, which was reviewed by Foreign Policy.
The briefers—who were led by Penny Abeywardena, New York City commissioner in the Mayor’s Office for International Affairs, and included officials from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, outlined a series of “best practices” to help foreign delegations get through the crisis, according to the account. But they offered no assurance that the city would provide special services to foreign diplomats exposed to the virus in New York, including tests, according to the account.
“There are no particular measures,” officials told the diplomats, according to the readout, which was produced by a representative of a diplomatic mission who listened in on the briefing. “If you’re sick, stay home—this is how we save New York,” they said, according to the readout.
The readout did not directly quote the briefers, who included Demetre Daskalakis, the deputy commissioner in the health department’s Division of Disease Control, and Maura Kennelly, the acting associate commissioner for external affairs at the health department. It presented an overview of the meeting in the form of paraphrased questions from the diplomats and answers from city officials.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
The briefing to the diplomatic community came on a day when the number of confirmed cases of infections in New York state rose to 613, including 269 in New York City. They included a 65-year-old man from Rockland County and an 82-year-old Brooklyn woman, who were declared the state’s first coronavirus fatalities, and two New York State Assembly members, Helene Weinstein, 67, and Charles Barron, 69. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, meanwhile, announced the administration was moving forward with plans to “offer telecommuting or a staggered work schedule for about 100,000 city employees,” the New York Times reported. De Blasio, however, has resisted calls for shutting down the city public school system, the largest in the country.
During the Saturday afternoon briefing, New York City medical officials emphasized that New York is “in the mitigation phase of the outbreak,” according to the readout. “This means that all individuals should assume that they have had some contact with the virus and practice the maximum-possible social distancing; most cases will be mild and medical care should only be sought in urgent, worsening, or vulnerable cases.”
Listen Now: Don't Touch Your Face A new podcast from Foreign Policy covering all aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Learn More
The briefers characterized the most vulnerable as the elderly, particularly those over 70 years of age, and individuals over the age of 50 with underlying health conditions, according to the account.
City officials appeared to douse expectations, raised by President Donald Trump in a televised press conference with executives of major U.S. corporations, that testing would become widely available. Asked if there would be a list of testing centers made available to foreign missions, the briefers said, “No. You will be tested if a doctor advises; calling 311 can give access to a provider if patient doesn’t have one,” according to the readout, which was shared widely with the New York-based diplomatic community.
“Testing should be reserved for the sickest (hospitalized) patients,” the account said.
The four-page readout was largely consistent with a separate written one-page account of the meeting made available to Foreign Policy by two diplomatic sources. The second account asserted that New York City officials told foreign delegates that the crisis could potentially continue through September. “New York City is trying to flatten the curve of infections,” the account reported the city officials said.
The New York City officials said that the city has changed its strategy from the early days when the virus arrived in New York, when health authorities sought to track and contain small numbers of cases. “Testing is now less important—the danger of transmission is much higher as many people have now been exposed and the majority of people will only have mild symptoms,” according to the readout.
The city’s strategy appeared inconsistent with the advice of the World Health Organization, which has urged governments to combine containment policies, such as contact tracing, with mitigation policies aimed at preventing the transmission of the virus through so-called social distancing and the prohibition of large public gatherings.
Those who exhibit symptoms associated with coronavirus—fever, dry coughs, difficulty breathing—should isolate themselves from others.
The sick should only seek a doctor’s advice if symptoms are rapidly worsening or they experience shortness of breath. Any doctor’s office, they added, has the authority to order a test if needed, according to the account.
The ill should avoid seeking emergency care “except if advised by a doctor, and if co-morbidities are present such as cancer, elderly, etc.,” according to the first account. They said that the Department of Health is no longer asking for information about infections unless they are part of a “suspected high-risk cluster.”
“Interviews with confirmed cases and contact tracing is not a good use of our resources when the virus is widespread,” according to the readout. “There will be little emphasis on tracing.”
The city’s health officials said that those infected with coronavirus remain infectious for about 72 hours after their initial fever abates, but they should remain in isolation for an additional seven days after the symptoms subside. “We are hopeful that exposure to COVID will make people immune, but too early to say definitively,” according to the account.
Diplomats said they welcome the city’s candor in describing the crisis. But they expressed some concern about the city’s commitment to address all their needs. For instance, the delegations would be responsible for disinfecting their own missions in the event of an outbreak, noting that the city lacked sufficient supplies for them.
New York officials also said that it was unlikely they would notify foreign delegations if one of their nationals tested positive, citing the importance of maintaining patient privacy. The officials said they were unable to guarantee the city would be able to observe delegations’ diplomatic immunity to travel in restricted areas, saying they “would have to balance immunities with the needs of the community.”
One senior diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the briefing was confidential, said the basic takeaway was: “It’s your responsibility not to get infected, and your responsibility to stay home if you do. Your odds of not dying are rather great—if you get close, ‘Give us a call.’”
Correction, March 15, 2020: A previous version of this story incorrectly attributed a readout of a New York City briefing on the coronavirus to the New York City Mayor’s Office for International Affairs. The readout was written by a representative of a foreign mission in New York and circulated widely in the U.N. diplomatic community.


foreignpolicy--2020-03-16--Fed Slashes Interest Rates to Near Zero

Fed Slashes Interest Rates to Near Zero

Fed Slashes Interest Rates to Near Zero Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : The Fed makes a major intervention , Benny Gantz will have the first shot at forming a government in Israel , and the latest coronavirus news .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
The U.S. Federal Reserve made another major intervention in the U.S. economy on Sunday by announcing a dramatic interest rate cut and a new $ 700 billion dollar round of quantitative easing .
The Fed was widely expected to announce an interest rate cut this week , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dramatic interest rate drop of 100 basis points—taking the target range for the federal funds rate down from the 1 to 1.25 percent range to the 0 to 0.25 percent range shows the urgency with which the Fed views the economic situation after seeing massive market volatility in the past week .
Speaking on the phone to reporters , Fed chief Jerome Powell said that the Fed ’ s actions were taken to soften the impact of a fiscal quarter in which economic growth could stall , “ We do know that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the U.S. economy will resume a normal level of activity .
In the meantime , the Fed will continue to use our tools to support the flow of credit , ” he said .
Markets react to Fed intervention .
U.S. stock futures dropped 5 percent after the Fed news in a sign that investors do not think this will be enough to stop further economic pain .
Futures hit “ limit down , ” the maximum allowable drop before the market opens .
In Asia , markets dropped across the board @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a 6 percent decline in early trading .
Is a recession looming ?
Speaking to ABC News , U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin played down talk of a recession , “ I think we ’ re in the second of nine innings and we will use whatever tools we need to make sure the economy and hardworking Americans will get through this , ” he said .
Several experts disagreed with his take ; four former chief economists at the International Monetary Fund told the Financial Times that a global recession—strictly defined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per cent—was already happening .
Gantz tries to form government in Israel .
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin has given Benny Gantz , the leader of the Blue and White party , permission to seek to form a government after Gantz was able to secure recommendations from 61 members of the Knesset .
That number includes parties that have virtually nothing in common such as as the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu and the Arab Joint List coalition ; the latter said it would not join a coalition led by Gantz but could give it the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has six weeks to form a government .
Meanwhile , Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’ s corruption trial—scheduled to begin this week—has been delayed until May 24 in light of the coronavirus crisis .
Coronavirus vaccine spat .
Berlin and Washington are providing differing explanations after a story in the German newspaper Welt am Sontag claimed that the Trump administration is trying to persuade a German company developing a coronavirus vaccine to move its operations to the United States .
The U.S. ambassador to Germany , Richard Grennell , called the German newspaper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the company in question , CureVac , dismissed rumors of any forthcoming acquisition .
France and Spain lock down .
Spain has enacted measures similar to those in force in Italy , calling for a near total lockdown on activity in order to deal with the coronavirus outbreak .
All non-essential businesses , including bars and restaurants , have been ordered closed and residents have been ordered to stay at home unless they are conducting essential activities like traveling to work or buying food .
France has enacted similar measures as French @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay at home except for food shopping and exercise .
Despite these restrictions , French municipal elections continued as planned on Sunday .
Representatives from the European Union and the United Kingdom are due to meet on Wednesday for three days of negotiations on the future of the E.U.-U.K. relationship .
Negotiations were due to take place in London , but are likely to be conducted by other means , including teleconference , because of the coronavirus outbreak .
On Friday , members of the Organization of American States will hold an election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ secretary-general of the group .
The incumbent , Luis Almagro , will face two other candidates : Peruvian Hugo de Zela , and Ecuadorian María Fernanda Espinosa .
On Sunday , voters in Guinea will vote for a new national assembly and decide in a referendum whether President Alpha Condé can seek another term as leader of the West African nation .
Under current law , Condé would have to leave office in December .
The vote was initially set for March 1 , but was delayed following pressure from international observers over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
An explosion at a gas processing plant in Lagos killed 15 people and destroyed over 50 residential buildings , emergency services said .
According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation , a truck apparently hit gas cylinders , igniting the explosion .
The incident led to a halt in pumping operations on the Atlas Cove-Mosimi pipeline .
Democratic primaries .
On Tuesday , Democratic party voters in Arizona , Florida , Illinois , and Ohio will have their say on who should be their nominee for president , with former Vice President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bernie Sanders in the polls .
These states are going ahead with their primaries even as two states , Louisiana and Georgia , announced that they would be postponing their votes due to coronavirus fears .
Taji attacked again .
Three U.S. service members and two Iraqis were wounded on Saturday in a rocket attack on a military base in Taji , Iraq .
It ’ s the second rocket strike on the base in the past week .
An attack last Wednesday killed three service members , two from the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ You can not attack and wound American service members and get away with it , we will hold them to account , ” a Pentagon spokesman said following Saturday ’ s attack .
Wuhan Zall , a soccer club in China ’ s top division , is an example of the global nature and rapid spread of the coronavirus .
The team made headlines in February when the outbreak in their city left them stranded in Spain , where they had traveled for pre-season training .
Now that Spain is bearing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ team is headed back to China for safety—although the squad is traveling first to Shenzhen , not Wuhan .
“ Things are well over there [ in China ] now , ” José Gonzalez , the team ’ s Spanish coach , told the Associated Press .
“ The Chinese league will likely start at the beginning of May .
We will have to enter quarantine when we arrive , so the sooner we leave , the better.
” For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The Fed makes a major intervention, Benny Gantz will have the first shot at forming a government in Israel, and the latest coronavirus news.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The Fed makes a major intervention, Benny Gantz will have the first shot at forming a government in Israel, and the latest coronavirus news.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.
Powell Announces Dramatic Rate Cut and $700 Billion Injection
The U.S. Federal Reserve made another major intervention in the U.S. economy on Sunday by announcing a dramatic interest rate cut and a new $700 billion dollar round of quantitative easing.
The Fed was widely expected to announce an interest rate cut this week, but the swiftness of the move, and the dramatic interest rate drop of 100 basis points—taking the target range for the federal funds rate down from the 1 to 1.25 percent range to the 0 to 0.25 percent range shows the urgency with which the Fed views the economic situation after seeing massive market volatility in the past week.
Speaking on the phone to reporters, Fed chief Jerome Powell said that the Fed’s actions were taken to soften the impact of a fiscal quarter in which economic growth could stall, “We do know that the virus will run its course and that the U.S. economy will resume a normal level of activity. In the meantime, the Fed will continue to use our tools to support the flow of credit,” he said.
Markets react to Fed intervention. U.S. stock futures dropped 5 percent after the Fed news in a sign that investors do not think this will be enough to stop further economic pain. Futures hit “limit down,” the maximum allowable drop before the market opens. In Asia, markets dropped across the board and London’s FTSE 100 opened with a 6 percent decline in early trading.
Is a recession looming? Speaking to ABC News, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin played down talk of a recession, “I think we’re in the second of nine innings and we will use whatever tools we need to make sure the economy and hardworking Americans will get through this,” he said. Several experts disagreed with his take; four former chief economists at the International Monetary Fund told the Financial Times that a global recession—strictly defined as global economic growth falling below 2.5 per cent—was already happening.
What We’re Following Today
Gantz tries to form government in Israel. Israeli President Reuven Rivlin has given Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White party, permission to seek to form a government after Gantz was able to secure recommendations from 61 members of the Knesset. That number includes parties that have virtually nothing in common such as as the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu and the Arab Joint List coalition; the latter said it would not join a coalition led by Gantz but could give it the support needed to govern. Gantz now has six weeks to form a government.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial—scheduled to begin this week—has been delayed until May 24 in light of the coronavirus crisis.
Coronavirus vaccine spat. Berlin and Washington are providing differing explanations after a story in the German newspaper Welt am Sontag claimed that the Trump administration is trying to persuade a German company developing a coronavirus vaccine to move its operations to the United States. The U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grennell, called the German newspaper’s story “wrong,” and the company in question, CureVac, dismissed rumors of any forthcoming acquisition.
France and Spain lock down. Spain has enacted measures similar to those in force in Italy, calling for a near total lockdown on activity in order to deal with the coronavirus outbreak. All non-essential businesses, including bars and restaurants, have been ordered closed and residents have been ordered to stay at home unless they are conducting essential activities like traveling to work or buying food. France has enacted similar measures as French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe advised residents to stay at home except for food shopping and exercise. Despite these restrictions, French municipal elections continued as planned on Sunday.
The World This Week
Representatives from the European Union and the United Kingdom are due to meet on Wednesday for three days of negotiations on the future of the E.U.-U.K. relationship. Negotiations were due to take place in London, but are likely to be conducted by other means, including teleconference, because of the coronavirus outbreak.
On Friday, members of the Organization of American States will hold an election to decide who will be the next secretary-general of the group. The incumbent, Luis Almagro, will face two other candidates: Peruvian Hugo de Zela, and Ecuadorian María Fernanda Espinosa.
On Sunday, voters in Guinea will vote for a new national assembly and decide in a referendum whether President Alpha Condé can seek another term as leader of the West African nation. Under current law, Condé would have to leave office in December. The vote was initially set for March 1, but was delayed following pressure from international observers over voter roll irregularities.
Keep an Eye On
Nigeria gas explosion. An explosion at a gas processing plant in Lagos killed 15 people and destroyed over 50 residential buildings, emergency services said. According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, a truck apparently hit gas cylinders, igniting the explosion. The incident led to a halt in pumping operations on the Atlas Cove-Mosimi pipeline.
Democratic primaries. On Tuesday, Democratic party voters in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio will have their say on who should be their nominee for president, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading against his rival Sen. Bernie Sanders in the polls. These states are going ahead with their primaries even as two states, Louisiana and Georgia, announced that they would be postponing their votes due to coronavirus fears.
Taji attacked again. Three U.S. service members and two Iraqis were wounded on Saturday in a rocket attack on a military base in Taji, Iraq. It’s the second rocket strike on the base in the past week. An attack last Wednesday killed three service members, two from the United States and one from the United Kingdom. “You cannot attack and wound American service members and get away with it, we will hold them to account,” a Pentagon spokesman said following Saturday’s attack.
Odds and Ends
Wuhan Zall, a soccer club in China’s top division, is an example of the global nature and rapid spread of the coronavirus. The team made headlines in February when the outbreak in their city left them stranded in Spain, where they had traveled for pre-season training. Now that Spain is bearing the brunt of the coronavirus epidemic, the team is headed back to China for safety—although the squad is traveling first to Shenzhen, not Wuhan. “Things are well over there [in China] now,” José Gonzalez, the team’s Spanish coach, told the Associated Press. “The Chinese league will likely start at the beginning of May. We will have to enter quarantine when we arrive, so the sooner we leave, the better.”
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.