foreignpolicy--2020-04-03--Spies Are Fighting a Shadow War Against the Coronavirus

Spies Are Fighting a Shadow War Against the Coronavirus The coronavirus pandemic currently sweeping across the world is more than a public health emergency .
It poses unprecedented threats to national and international security , and fighting it , as the leaders of several countries have stressed , will resemble a major war involving similar numbers of fatalities .
Intelligence services will have a major role in this struggle , just as they have in previous wars throughout history .
That role will largely be played in the shadows—but it will be no less significant for its secrecy .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contribute to the war against COVID-19 .
First , they will provide policymakers with assessments about the virus ’ s spread and impact .
The U.S. intelligence community already has a dedicated facility now at the front line of fighting COVID-19 , the National Center for Medical Intelligence ( NCMI ) , based at Fort Detrick in Maryland .
Staffed with epidemiologists , virologists , and other experts , the NCMI acts as a clearing house for all-source U.S. intelligence about the virus .
Building on its Cold War predecessor , the NCMI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ears when it comes to biological threats since 2008 , up to and including COVID-19 .
According to public reporting , in January and February this year , the U.S. intelligence community warned the Trump administration about the threat of the virus spreading from the Chinese city of Wuhan , where it originated , and becoming a pandemic .
The second way that intelligence services will contribute to fighting COVID-19 is by stealing secrets .
Spying , as such stealing is commonly known , is concerned with uncovering information that others want kept @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. intelligence will be able to provide Washington policymakers with unique information—unavailable from any other source—about foreign state secrets concerning the virus , including whether their official government infection rates are accurate .
These secrets will be particularly important to discover in closed regimes like China , Russia , Iran , and North Korea .
According to U.S. intelligence assessments , China concealed the extent of its initial viral outbreak , while Russia had suspiciously low official levels of COVID-19 infections at first but has now imposed draconian lockdowns .
U.S. intelligence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major roles in verifying their official figures .
Some of this intelligence will come from espionage , the age-old tradecraft of recruiting human sources with access to relevant secret information .
It will also undoubtedly come from technical intelligence , such as signals intelligence or imagery intelligence , indicating foreign state deception about COVID-19 .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
The third way that intelligence services will play a significant role in responding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is by countering disinformation .
Beijing and Washington are currently engaged in a propaganda battle about which of them leads the world in defeating COVID-19 and , by implication , whether democratic or nondemocratic governments can better protect citizens .
As U.S. infection rates rise exponentially , and as U.S. deaths now surpass China ’ s , Washington is losing that soft-power battle .
To discredit the United States publicly , the Chinese government has promoted a conspiracy theory that the U.S. military was responsible for importing the new coronavirus to China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or not , its false claim is in fact a regurgitation of an older Cold War conspiracy theory developed by Soviet intelligence : that the U.S. military developed HIV .
In Operation Infektion , the KGB spread disinformation that HIV was manufactured at the secret U.S. biological research institute at Fort Detrick—ironically , the predecessor to the facility mentioned above , now at the front line of the U.S. intelligence response to COVID-19 .
There is thus a sad convergence between previous Soviet disinformation about a pandemic and U.S. efforts to counter one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the face of a lethal new virus , without a cure , societies are confused , scared , and in disarray , and they are easy prey for state and nonstate disinformation .
In such circumstances , human nature tends to search for explanations , and the hidden hand of a foreign government is an appealing way to explain the otherwise inexplicable .
During the Cold War , the U.S. government devised a remarkably successful strategy to counter KGB disinformation about HIV .
In the early 1980s , President Ronald Reagan established @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Active Measures Working Group ( AMWG ) , whose strategy was threefold : report , analyze , and publicize .
It discovered the KGB ’ s role in HIV disinformation from intelligence collection—probably from a spy .
Armed with this information , the AMWG attributed the conspiracy theory to the Kremlin , and , in a series of high-profile meetings with Soviet leaders , the United States publicized the Kremlin ’ s disinformation operation .
Soon after , in 1987 , Moscow abruptly disowned the HIV conspiracy theory .
The same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today .
The United States could do well to establish a modern-day AMWG for countering disinformation .
However , in the age of social media , its efforts would need to be accelerated and would need cooperation from largely unregulated social media companies , which now make it quicker , cheaper , and easier to spread disinformation than ever before in history .
In the Cold War , the KGB spread disinformation about HIV by planting bogus information in obscure publications , enlisting pseudo-scientific so-called proof , which Soviet media and useful idiots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact .
Its disinformation operation succeeded when , in 1986 , mainstream Western media picked up the story .
However , it was a slow , laborious , and complex undertaking for Soviet intelligence .
By contrast , all that is needed today to discredit the U.S. government are bogus social media accounts and online trolls .
Another major difference between past and present U.S. responses to pandemic disinformation is the current White House ’ s own misinformation about COVID-19 .
Trump has delivered numerous false and misleading statements about the virus and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidents , Trump has questioned whether any government is truthful about it .
This week , he claimed that every country spreads disinformation about the virus—implying that doing so is no big deal .
The fourth and final way that intelligence can help counter COVID-19 and other pandemics is through surveillance .
Here , authoritarian regimes like China have huge inbuilt advantages over Western liberal democracies , which respect the rule of law and civil liberties .
China has deployed intrusive mass surveillance of its citizens to counter the virus , using digital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and even offering rewards for informing on sick neighbors .
By contrast , Americans have not yet started to have an urgently needed public policy debate about the extent to which they are willing to have their privacy infringed on to protect public health through infection contact tracing .
One of America ’ s closest allies , Israel , has deployed a nationwide digital surveillance program using phone-tracking spyware technology , originally designed for counterterrorism , to map infections and notify people who could be infected .
Until a vaccine is found , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 18 months , Americans need to address whether they are willing to adopt similar intrusive surveillance as Israel—leaving aside that in China .
Where does the balance for Americans lie between public health security and civil liberties ?
Would a digital dragnet be constitutionally legal in the United States , perhaps under wartime emergency regulations , and what safeguards should Americans demand for how collected data is used ?
These are not abstract ideas for debates in a comfortable law school seminar .
They are urgent real-world issues .
In Britain , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ British police this week for publicly shaming people exercising in public parks against the government ’ s wishes .
As Sumption noted , a police force that enforces the mere wishes of a government without following the rule of law is the definition of a police state .
The U.S. government has the necessary technological capabilities to create a domestic digital dragnet similar to Israel ’ s .
In 2018 , the U.S. Supreme Court ruled ( by a slim 5-4 majority ) that , generally , U.S. authorities need to obtain warrants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are certain emergency situations when warrantless collection is permissible , like bomb threats , tracking down fugitives , or “ to protect individuals who are threatened with imminent harm.
” The U.S. Congress needs to have an urgent policy and legal debate whether COVID-19 presents such an emergency—a debate that should include powerful warnings from history about U.S. government programs to collect bulk communication data .
In the past , such U.S. programs enacted during wars have tended to roll on , in secret , even after those wars ended .
If the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Israel to protect public health against COVID-19 , Americans should demand oversight and transparency about it , with U.S. authorities producing regular statistical transparency reports about the nature and scale of the digital data collected , similar to those that U.S. intelligence has produced after Edward Snowden ’ s revelations .
In any case , the above four ways are how intelligence services are certain to contribute to defeating COVID-19 .
When documents are eventually declassified about today ’ s health emergency , they will likely reveal that intelligence services were assisting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ covert actions .
Israel ’ s main intelligence service , Mossad , has reportedly conducted an undercover operation to purchase COVID-19 testing kits from overseas .
It is not difficult to imagine other states mounting similar operations .
Ultimately , intelligence services will always be the last refuge for sovereign states .
As for the future , governments around the world are sure to demand a new kind of counterpandemic intelligence to ensure they are never again caught by surprise .
Countries that already have such resources , like the United States , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just as previous U.S. national security disasters , like Pearl Harbor and 9/11 , led to overhauls of U.S. intelligence to ensure they never happened again , so the coronavirus will do the same .
Pandemic intelligence will become a central part of future U.S. national security , along with other areas like counterterrorism , counterespionage , and cybersecurity .
Unfortunately , these fields may collide , as state and nonstate actors take advantage of the geopolitical fallout from the virus to conduct terrorism , spy , and launch cyberattacks .
( Governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new sort—terrorists infected with COVID-19 deliberately spreading it . )
Serious questions—and doubtless future lawsuits—will scrutinize whether Trump ’ s confusing and inconsistent public policy responses to the virus cost American lives .
But among policymakers , one can hope there will be consensus that some of the most important parts of the U.S. intelligence community only become apparent during emergencies .

The coronavirus pandemic currently sweeping across the world is more than a public health emergency. It poses unprecedented threats to national and international security, and fighting it, as the leaders of several countries have stressed, will resemble a major war involving similar numbers of fatalities. Intelligence services will have a major role in this struggle, just as they have in previous wars throughout history. That role will largely be played in the shadows—but it will be no less significant for its secrecy.
The coronavirus pandemic currently sweeping across the world is more than a public health emergency. It poses unprecedented threats to national and international security, and fighting it, as the leaders of several countries have stressed, will resemble a major war involving similar numbers of fatalities. Intelligence services will have a major role in this struggle, just as they have in previous wars throughout history. That role will largely be played in the shadows—but it will be no less significant for its secrecy.
There are four ways that intelligence services will contribute to the war against COVID-19. First, they will provide policymakers with assessments about the virus’s spread and impact. The U.S. intelligence community already has a dedicated facility now at the front line of fighting COVID-19, the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), based at Fort Detrick in Maryland. Staffed with epidemiologists, virologists, and other experts, the NCMI acts as a clearing house for all-source U.S. intelligence about the virus. Building on its Cold War predecessor, the NCMI has been America’s eyes and ears when it comes to biological threats since 2008, up to and including COVID-19. According to public reporting, in January and February this year, the U.S. intelligence community warned the Trump administration about the threat of the virus spreading from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where it originated, and becoming a pandemic.
(President Donald Trump reportedly dismissed those intelligence warnings. But this initial mishandling of COVID-19 was not a U.S. intelligence failure in the sense that the U.S. intelligence community failed to deliver warnings to policymakers. Instead, it was a policy failure—if today’s reporting is correct, one of the worst and most dangerous policy failures in U.S. history.)
The second way that intelligence services will contribute to fighting COVID-19 is by stealing secrets. Spying, as such stealing is commonly known, is concerned with uncovering information that others want kept secret. With the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. intelligence will be able to provide Washington policymakers with unique information—unavailable from any other source—about foreign state secrets concerning the virus, including whether their official government infection rates are accurate. These secrets will be particularly important to discover in closed regimes like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, China concealed the extent of its initial viral outbreak, while Russia had suspiciously low official levels of COVID-19 infections at first but has now imposed draconian lockdowns. U.S. intelligence, and its partners, will therefore have major roles in verifying their official figures. Some of this intelligence will come from espionage, the age-old tradecraft of recruiting human sources with access to relevant secret information. It will also undoubtedly come from technical intelligence, such as signals intelligence or imagery intelligence, indicating foreign state deception about COVID-19.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
The third way that intelligence services will play a significant role in responding to the coronavirus, and future pandemics, is by countering disinformation. Beijing and Washington are currently engaged in a propaganda battle about which of them leads the world in defeating COVID-19 and, by implication, whether democratic or nondemocratic governments can better protect citizens. As U.S. infection rates rise exponentially, and as U.S. deaths now surpass China’s, Washington is losing that soft-power battle. To discredit the United States publicly, the Chinese government has promoted a conspiracy theory that the U.S. military was responsible for importing the new coronavirus to China. Whether the Chinese politburo knows it or not, its false claim is in fact a regurgitation of an older Cold War conspiracy theory developed by Soviet intelligence: that the U.S. military developed HIV. In Operation Infektion, the KGB spread disinformation that HIV was manufactured at the secret U.S. biological research institute at Fort Detrick—ironically, the predecessor to the facility mentioned above, now at the front line of the U.S. intelligence response to COVID-19. There is thus a sad convergence between previous Soviet disinformation about a pandemic and U.S. efforts to counter one today.
It is not surprising that in the face of a lethal new virus, without a cure, societies are confused, scared, and in disarray, and they are easy prey for state and nonstate disinformation. In such circumstances, human nature tends to search for explanations, and the hidden hand of a foreign government is an appealing way to explain the otherwise inexplicable. During the Cold War, the U.S. government devised a remarkably successful strategy to counter KGB disinformation about HIV. In the early 1980s, President Ronald Reagan established an interdepartmental group to counter Soviet disinformation, the Active Measures Working Group (AMWG), whose strategy was threefold: report, analyze, and publicize. It discovered the KGB’s role in HIV disinformation from intelligence collection—probably from a spy. Armed with this information, the AMWG attributed the conspiracy theory to the Kremlin, and, in a series of high-profile meetings with Soviet leaders, the United States publicized the Kremlin’s disinformation operation. Soon after, in 1987, Moscow abruptly disowned the HIV conspiracy theory.
The same strategy is applicable for countering COVID-19 disinformation today. The United States could do well to establish a modern-day AMWG for countering disinformation. However, in the age of social media, its efforts would need to be accelerated and would need cooperation from largely unregulated social media companies, which now make it quicker, cheaper, and easier to spread disinformation than ever before in history. In the Cold War, the KGB spread disinformation about HIV by planting bogus information in obscure publications, enlisting pseudo-scientific so-called proof, which Soviet media and useful idiots in left-leaning Western media reported as established fact. Its disinformation operation succeeded when, in 1986, mainstream Western media picked up the story. However, it was a slow, laborious, and complex undertaking for Soviet intelligence. By contrast, all that is needed today to discredit the U.S. government are bogus social media accounts and online trolls. Another major difference between past and present U.S. responses to pandemic disinformation is the current White House’s own misinformation about COVID-19. Trump has delivered numerous false and misleading statements about the virus and its spread. Furthermore, unlike previous presidents, Trump has questioned whether any government is truthful about it. This week, he claimed that every country spreads disinformation about the virus—implying that doing so is no big deal.
The fourth and final way that intelligence can help counter COVID-19 and other pandemics is through surveillance. Here, authoritarian regimes like China have huge inbuilt advantages over Western liberal democracies, which respect the rule of law and civil liberties. China has deployed intrusive mass surveillance of its citizens to counter the virus, using digital IDs to monitor people’s movements and even offering rewards for informing on sick neighbors. By contrast, Americans have not yet started to have an urgently needed public policy debate about the extent to which they are willing to have their privacy infringed on to protect public health through infection contact tracing. One of America’s closest allies, Israel, has deployed a nationwide digital surveillance program using phone-tracking spyware technology, originally designed for counterterrorism, to map infections and notify people who could be infected.
Until a vaccine is found, which is likely to take between 12 and 18 months, Americans need to address whether they are willing to adopt similar intrusive surveillance as Israel—leaving aside that in China. Where does the balance for Americans lie between public health security and civil liberties? Would a digital dragnet be constitutionally legal in the United States, perhaps under wartime emergency regulations, and what safeguards should Americans demand for how collected data is used? These are not abstract ideas for debates in a comfortable law school seminar. They are urgent real-world issues. In Britain, former Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption lambasted British police this week for publicly shaming people exercising in public parks against the government’s wishes. As Sumption noted, a police force that enforces the mere wishes of a government without following the rule of law is the definition of a police state.
The U.S. government has the necessary technological capabilities to create a domestic digital dragnet similar to Israel’s. In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled (by a slim 5-4 majority) that, generally, U.S. authorities need to obtain warrants for cell-phone geolocation data but that there are certain emergency situations when warrantless collection is permissible, like bomb threats, tracking down fugitives, or “to protect individuals who are threatened with imminent harm.” The U.S. Congress needs to have an urgent policy and legal debate whether COVID-19 presents such an emergency—a debate that should include powerful warnings from history about U.S. government programs to collect bulk communication data. In the past, such U.S. programs enacted during wars have tended to roll on, in secret, even after those wars ended. If the United States creates a similar digital dragnet to Israel to protect public health against COVID-19, Americans should demand oversight and transparency about it, with U.S. authorities producing regular statistical transparency reports about the nature and scale of the digital data collected, similar to those that U.S. intelligence has produced after Edward Snowden’s revelations.
In any case, the above four ways are how intelligence services are certain to contribute to defeating COVID-19. When documents are eventually declassified about today’s health emergency, they will likely reveal that intelligence services were assisting their respective governments in another way—through deniable covert actions. Israel’s main intelligence service, Mossad, has reportedly conducted an undercover operation to purchase COVID-19 testing kits from overseas. It is not difficult to imagine other states mounting similar operations. Ultimately, intelligence services will always be the last refuge for sovereign states.
As for the future, governments around the world are sure to demand a new kind of counterpandemic intelligence to ensure they are never again caught by surprise. Countries that already have such resources, like the United States, will reward them with higher status. Just as previous U.S. national security disasters, like Pearl Harbor and 9/11, led to overhauls of U.S. intelligence to ensure they never happened again, so the coronavirus will do the same. Pandemic intelligence will become a central part of future U.S. national security, along with other areas like counterterrorism, counterespionage, and cybersecurity. Unfortunately, these fields may collide, as state and nonstate actors take advantage of the geopolitical fallout from the virus to conduct terrorism, spy, and launch cyberattacks. (Governments may soon even face bioterrorism of a new sort—terrorists infected with COVID-19 deliberately spreading it.)
Serious questions—and doubtless future lawsuits—will scrutinize whether Trump’s confusing and inconsistent public policy responses to the virus cost American lives. But among policymakers, one can hope there will be consensus that some of the most important parts of the U.S. intelligence community only become apparent during emergencies.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-03--Navy Brass Felt Blindsided by Fired Carrier Captain’s Emailed Appeal

Senior Navy officials were blindsided by a written plea for help from the commander of the coronavirus-wracked USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier after they assured him his crew would be cared for in two direct calls earlier this week , Foreign Policy has learned .
A source familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy that Capt .
Brett Crozier had multiple conversations with the chief of staff to acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly on Monday , just hours before his plea for help leaked in the San Francisco Chronicle .
Crozier was fired as captain of the ship two days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ message from the Navy to Crozier on Monday was “ call us any time day or night , ” the source said , as the service ’ s chain of command looked for single-bed rooms in nearby hotels to individually quarantine sailors coming off the ship and slow the spread of the virus .
Crozier was given Modly ’ s personal cell phone number to raise further concerns , the source added , but there was no contact between the captain and Navy brass between that time and when Crozier ’ s letter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some crew .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it ’ s affecting countries around the world . ]
“ I think sort of most disappointing to me is that I had set up a direct line to him that if he felt that anything , way before his letter was written , that if he felt anything wasn ’ t going well and he needed help , that he could reach out to me directly , ” Modly told the conservative radio host @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And he did not do that.
” Yet even as Modly is making the rounds in the media to justify the decision to remove Crozier from his post , there is palpable anger over the captain ’ s dismissal among service members aboard the Roosevelt and their families .
In purported videos of the captain ’ s departure posted to Facebook , Crozier is seen walking down the Roosevelt ’ s gangway for the last time as hundreds of service members chant his name in unison .
By Friday afternoon , an online @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 90,000 signatures .
A mother of a Roosevelt sailor told Foreign Policy that hundreds of troops were being quarantined aboard the ship and being checked for high temperatures twice a day when the letter was sent , and not enough was being done by the Navy to keep the crew safe .
“ It felt like a lot of politics to me and not enough action , ” she said .
“ I believe that the Crozier memo expedited the whole thing.
” “ When I hear the secretary of the Navy say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad judgment call I don ’ t necessarily agree , ” she added .
“ This was not a man who made bad judgment calls.
” The Navy ’ s chain of command was looking at options to provide housing for sailors leaving the ship in Guam and trying to figure out how to supply enough food to the crew when the letter leaked , a situation that has been complicated by scarce accommodations .
Navy officials also sought to get enough medical personnel to Guam to check in on quarantined sailors .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sailors to leave the ship in the coming days , more than half of the crew .
Navy leaders have not determined how Crozier ’ s letter leaked , but Modly said in a press conference on Thursday that he had “ lost confidence ” in the dismissed skipper ’ s decision-making and judgment over the incident .
While the email was not classified , Modly slammed Crozier ’ s decision to copy 20 to 30 people not in the direct chain of command , enhancing the likelihood of its public release .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ship ’ s readiness for combat should have been classified , the source familiar with the conversations told Foreign Policy , and Crozier made “ an emotional argument ” by saying that 50 sailors on board could die .
According to official figures released by the Navy on Thursday , 45 percent of the service ’ s coronavirus cases are sailors of the USS Roosevelt .
Modly told Hewitt on Friday morning that 140 people aboard the Roosevelt had tested positive for the coronavirus .
Modly made the decision to fire Crozier no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , and spent most of the day communicating his intentions to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and informing leaders in the White House and on Capitol Hill .
A Democratic aide confirmed that Modly communicated the decision to fire Crozier to House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith before the decision was formally announced .
It is not immediately clear if there will be follow-on action from the committee as U.S. Indo-Pacific Command launches a review of the “ command climate ” in the region .
But a former official who spoke to Foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he gave Crozier his personal contact information went around a chain of command that would normally go through the U.S. 7th Fleet in Japan and invited retribution against the skipper even before the letter was sent .
“ If he uses that number and calls the secretary , his career is dead that instant , ” a former high-ranking naval official told Foreign Policy .
“ Either you want to be shot or you want to be hung.
” The former official said Modly should have completed an investigation of the incident @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Navy but at another post .
Meanwhile , the coronavirus infection has continued to spread on board the carrier , and Modly said in his interview with Hewitt that he has named a replacement for the fired skipper .
The Navy is not looking at an operational pause due to the coronavirus , Moldy told Reuters on Friday .

Senior Navy officials were blindsided by a written plea for help from the commander of the coronavirus-wracked USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier after they assured him his crew would be cared for in two direct calls earlier this week, Foreign Policy has learned.
Senior Navy officials were blindsided by a written plea for help from the commander of the coronavirus-wracked USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier after they assured him his crew would be cared for in two direct calls earlier this week, Foreign Policy has learned.
A source familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy that Capt. Brett Crozier had multiple conversations with the chief of staff to acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly on Monday, just hours before his plea for help leaked in the San Francisco Chronicle. Crozier was fired as captain of the ship two days after the letter was leaked.
The message from the Navy to Crozier on Monday was “call us any time day or night,” the source said, as the service’s chain of command looked for single-bed rooms in nearby hotels to individually quarantine sailors coming off the ship and slow the spread of the virus.
Crozier was given Modly’s personal cell phone number to raise further concerns, the source added, but there was no contact between the captain and Navy brass between that time and when Crozier’s letter was sent by email to higher-ups and some crew.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
“I think sort of most disappointing to me is that I had set up a direct line to him that if he felt that anything, way before his letter was written, that if he felt anything wasn’t going well and he needed help, that he could reach out to me directly,” Modly told the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Friday morning. “And he did not do that.”
Yet even as Modly is making the rounds in the media to justify the decision to remove Crozier from his post, there is palpable anger over the captain’s dismissal among service members aboard the Roosevelt and their families. In purported videos of the captain’s departure posted to Facebook, Crozier is seen walking down the Roosevelt’s gangway for the last time as hundreds of service members chant his name in unison. By Friday afternoon, an online petition to reinstate Crozier had reached nearly 90,000 signatures.
A mother of a Roosevelt sailor told Foreign Policy that hundreds of troops were being quarantined aboard the ship and being checked for high temperatures twice a day when the letter was sent, and not enough was being done by the Navy to keep the crew safe. “It felt like a lot of politics to me and not enough action,” she said. “I believe that the Crozier memo expedited the whole thing.”
“When I hear the secretary of the Navy say that [the captain] made a bad judgment call I don’t necessarily agree,” she added. “This was not a man who made bad judgment calls.”
The Navy’s chain of command was looking at options to provide housing for sailors leaving the ship in Guam and trying to figure out how to supply enough food to the crew when the letter leaked, a situation that has been complicated by scarce accommodations. Navy officials also sought to get enough medical personnel to Guam to check in on quarantined sailors. Modly said this week he expects 2,700 sailors to leave the ship in the coming days, more than half of the crew.
Navy leaders have not determined how Crozier’s letter leaked, but Modly said in a press conference on Thursday that he had “lost confidence” in the dismissed skipper’s decision-making and judgment over the incident. While the email was not classified, Modly slammed Crozier’s decision to copy 20 to 30 people not in the direct chain of command, enhancing the likelihood of its public release. Portions of the message pointing to the ship’s readiness for combat should have been classified, the source familiar with the conversations told Foreign Policy, and Crozier made “an emotional argument” by saying that 50 sailors on board could die.
According to official figures released by the Navy on Thursday, 45 percent of the service’s coronavirus cases are sailors of the USS Roosevelt. Modly told Hewitt on Friday morning that 140 people aboard the Roosevelt had tested positive for the coronavirus.
Modly made the decision to fire Crozier no later than Thursday morning, the source said, and spent most of the day communicating his intentions to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and informing leaders in the White House and on Capitol Hill. A Democratic aide confirmed that Modly communicated the decision to fire Crozier to House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith before the decision was formally announced. It is not immediately clear if there will be follow-on action from the committee as U.S. Indo-Pacific Command launches a review of the “command climate” in the region.
But a former official who spoke to Foreign Policy said that Modly’s contention that he gave Crozier his personal contact information went around a chain of command that would normally go through the U.S. 7th Fleet in Japan and invited retribution against the skipper even before the letter was sent.
“If he uses that number and calls the secretary, his career is dead that instant,” a former high-ranking naval official told Foreign Policy. “Either you want to be shot or you want to be hung.” The former official said Modly should have completed an investigation of the incident before removing Crozier, who will remain in the Navy but at another post.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus infection has continued to spread on board the carrier, and Modly said in his interview with Hewitt that he has named a replacement for the fired skipper. The Navy is not looking at an operational pause due to the coronavirus, Moldy told Reuters on Friday.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-03--Are the Markets Underestimating a Coronavirus Depression?

One of the most enduring images to come out of the last financial crisis more than a decade ago was that of former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—once seen as the “ maestro ” of markets—expressing his “ shocked disbelief ” that Wall Street had blown itself up .
How could people so smart act against their own “ self-interest ” and get things so wrong ?
Greenspan wondered aloud during testimony to Congress in the fall of 2008 .
“ The whole intellectual edifice , ” he famously said , had “ collapsed.
” In the subsequent decadelong record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus pandemic sent them tumbling a few weeks ago—the hoary conventional wisdom of Wall Street reasserted itself : The brilliant traders and analysts on the Street will always find a way to protect their self-interests , and they usually figure things out before anyone else , pricing in the worst possibilities .
But today , with financial markets seesawing day by day yet generally holding steady—even as some economists and knowledgable pundits suggest the U.S. economy is heading into a depression—it ’ s worth second-guessing Wall Street once again .
Indeed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say the financial markets may now be whistling past the graveyard of the American economy .
One of the problems is that when faced with something truly huge and world-overturning—something unprecedented and therefore unpredictable—disbelief recedes slowly .
That was the case in 2007 and 2008 , when major authorities , even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke , kept reassuring Americans that housing prices were supported by “ very strong fundamentals , ” and investors looking for safer ground put up a constantly eroding wall of denial against the rising tide of defaulting mortgages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brothers collapsed and hundreds of thousands of trading counterparties , unseen until then , defaulted and panicked , nearly bankrupting most major financial institutions .
The smartest minds in finance had deluded themselves into thinking they were spreading risk around the world when mainly what they were doing was hiding it .
All at once , it seemed , everyone realized that the entire financial system was infected and there was no safer ground any longer .
[ Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak : Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . ]
In recent weeks , after a big initial plunge in March , the markets have been bumping along even as the signs of economic devastation become clearer every day .
Economists are warning that unemployment is going to hit Depression-plus levels , and Trumpian hopes for a sharp V-shaped recovery—one in which the economy regains its prepandemic vitality and shape after only a couple of months—are dimming rapidly .
On Thursday another 6.6 million people filed for unemployment claims , adding up to 10 million in two weeks , and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Louis economist projected the jobless rate could reach 32 percent , higher than the worst of the Great Depression , indicating that many businesses will go under and not come back .
The Paycheck Protection Program that launched Friday as part of the $ 2 trillion disaster relief plan will help a lot—under it , businesses that keep workers on their payroll for eight weeks or promise to rehire laid-off workers will have federal loans forgiven—but this is only an island in a sea of soon-to-default debt .
Meanwhile , many economists argue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill-designed , and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is balking at another one any time soon .
The new unemployment numbers released Friday , showing a mere uptick to 4.4 percent , up from 3.5 percent in February , with 701,000 new job losses , are widely recognized as not reflecting this rapidly developing new reality .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted to the news with only a slight downturn of 361 points , or 1.69 percent .
But at current rates , thousands of restaurants and hotels , and possibly many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , nor will many entertainment companies such as casinos and movie houses , and a wide range of other small businesses from auto repair to construction .
The so-called gig economy of millions of self-employed workers is beginning to go under ; most of these people will fall into serious debt and will have to reinvent themselves in some new way .
The social consequences will be long-lasting .
The gap between the rich and everyone else , already jarring to social stability , will only widen : The less money you earn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ride out the pandemic at home without going out to put food on the table—and therefore the more susceptible you are to the disease .
Ironically , it is many of these less fortunate— “ first responders ” like the cashiers at Walmart and Target , warehouse workers , and delivery people—who are keeping the U.S. economy and indeed American society running right now , and at little better than minimum wage .
And they ’ re not happy , understandably , with their lot .
However soon the coronavirus dies out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away .
“ This is not going to be an easy recovery once we do hit bottom , ” said Lawrence White of New York University .
“ I ’ m afraid of the deterioration of intangible but very important relationships , whether supply chain relationships or employment relationships .
Or customer relationships .
Or lender-borrower relationships .
The longer we go , the more they deteriorate , and the harder it is to recreate what we had.
” Some analysts argue that the markets are doing the best they can with little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ try to price in worst-case scenarios , with a great deal of success most of the time .
“ Financial markets are forward looking , ” said Liaquat Ahamed , a former bond trader and author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book Lords of Finance , in an email .
“ We knew just anecdotally that millions of people had thrown out of work because of the lockdown .
So the unemployment numbers are not news .
What matters now for the stock market is how long this lockdown has to be .
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of GDP ) the federal government has been remarkably aggressive in providing a cushion that could tide us through the next six weeks ( i.e .
10 % of the year ) .
The trillion dollar question is will the lockdown have to be longer than the middle to end of May ?
” That ’ s probably a safe bet at this point , with health experts saying the coronavirus could linger on through the summer , and possibly recur in the fall .
What is hardest of all for markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unprecedented speed of the economic shutdown , which has stalled the entire world economy in a matter of weeks .
“ Whereas the Great Depression was a slow-motion economic disaster , we are experiencing ours in hyperspeed , ” said Lawrence Glickman , a historian at Cornell University .
In the longer term , the larger question is how this changes not only the United States but also the globalized trading system—and the international system itself .
For Trump and key advisors such as Peter Navarro , his chief trade negotiator , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down globalization , especially by “ decoupling ” from China , which has been their apparent goal ever since this frankly protectionist president took office .
“ If we learn anything from this crisis , it should be never again , never again should we have to depend on the rest of the world for our essential medicines and countermeasures , ” Navarro told the White House briefing on Thursday .
“ And if there ’ s any vindication , it ’ s the president ’ s Buy American , secure borders , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy , and belief.
” Many experts are now suggesting the neo-isolationists will have the upper hand post-crisis .
The coronavirus is threatening “ the economic and political sinews of globalization , and causing them to unravel to a certain degree , ” the Yale University disease historian Frank Snowden told the Wall Street Journal .
He said the “ coronavirus is emphatically a disease of globalization , ” proving most damaging to cosmopolitan cities such as New York that are “ densely populated and linked by rapid air travel , by movements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kinds of businesspeople , all kinds of interlocking networks.
” Against those trends the advocates of global capitalism will have to find fresh ways to justify a rebirth of the international system and turn globalization into something more than what it has been , which is mainly a profit machine built on complex supply chains and cheap labor .
“ The question is whether this crisis of capitalism is different from the many that have come before , ” said Cornell ’ s Glickman .
“ Will the legitimacy of the system be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was not in 2008-2009 ?
Will political solutions , such as Medicare for All , that seemed extreme a few weeks ago gain political purchase ?
Will we change how we value labor , now that we see that restaurant , retail , postal , health care workers , and journalists ( among many others ) are doing essential labor that is massively underpaid ?
Will unionism take off , in the wake of the labor actions by Instacart and Amazon workers ?
” Are the markets really pricing all this stuff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April 3 : This story was updated with the Dow ’ s close .

One of the most enduring images to come out of the last financial crisis more than a decade ago was that of former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—once seen as the “ maestro ” of markets—expressing his “shocked disbelief” that Wall Street had blown itself up. How could people so smart act against their own “self-interest” and get things so wrong? Greenspan wondered aloud during testimony to Congress in the fall of 2008. “The whole intellectual edifice,” he famously said, had “collapsed.”
One of the most enduring images to come out of the last financial crisis more than a decade ago was that of former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—once seen as the “maestro” of markets—expressing his “shocked disbelief” that Wall Street had blown itself up. How could people so smart act against their own “self-interest” and get things so wrong? Greenspan wondered aloud during testimony to Congress in the fall of 2008. “The whole intellectual edifice,” he famously said, had “collapsed.”
In the subsequent decadelong record bull run of the markets—which lasted until the coronavirus pandemic sent them tumbling a few weeks ago—the hoary conventional wisdom of Wall Street reasserted itself: The brilliant traders and analysts on the Street will always find a way to protect their self-interests, and they usually figure things out before anyone else, pricing in the worst possibilities. But today, with financial markets seesawing day by day yet generally holding steady—even as some economists and knowledgable pundits suggest the U.S. economy is heading into a depression—it’s worth second-guessing Wall Street once again.
Indeed, it’s probably not too much to say the financial markets may now be whistling past the graveyard of the American economy.
One of the problems is that when faced with something truly huge and world-overturning—something unprecedented and therefore unpredictable—disbelief recedes slowly. That was the case in 2007 and 2008, when major authorities, even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, kept reassuring Americans that housing prices were supported by “very strong fundamentals,” and investors looking for safer ground put up a constantly eroding wall of denial against the rising tide of defaulting mortgages. This continued right up until Lehman Brothers collapsed and hundreds of thousands of trading counterparties, unseen until then, defaulted and panicked, nearly bankrupting most major financial institutions. The smartest minds in finance had deluded themselves into thinking they were spreading risk around the world when mainly what they were doing was hiding it. All at once, it seemed, everyone realized that the entire financial system was infected and there was no safer ground any longer.
[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic and learn how it’s affecting countries around the world.]
In recent weeks, after a big initial plunge in March, the markets have been bumping along even as the signs of economic devastation become clearer every day. Economists are warning that unemployment is going to hit Depression-plus levels, and Trumpian hopes for a sharp V-shaped recovery—one in which the economy regains its prepandemic vitality and shape after only a couple of months—are dimming rapidly. On Thursday it was reported that another 6.6 million people had filed for unemployment claims, adding up to 10 million in two weeks, and a day earlier a Federal Reserve of St. Louis economist projected the jobless rate could reach 32 percent, higher than the worst of the Great Depression, indicating that many businesses will go under and not come back. The Paycheck Protection Program that launched Friday as part of the $2 trillion disaster relief plan will help a lot—under it, businesses that keep workers on their payroll for eight weeks or promise to rehire laid-off workers will have federal loans forgiven—but this is only an island in a sea of soon-to-default debt. Meanwhile, many economists argue that much of the new stimulus is ill-designed, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is balking at another one any time soon.
The new unemployment numbers released Friday, showing an uptick to 4.4 percent, up from 3.5 percent in February, with 701,000 new job losses, are widely recognized as not reflecting this rapidly developing new reality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted to the news with only a slight downturn of 361 points, or 1.69 percent. But at current rates, the unemployment numbers to come look staggering: Thousands of restaurants and hotels, and possibly many airlines, will never return to solvency, nor will many entertainment and leisure companies such as casinos and movie houses, and a wide range of other small businesses from auto repair to construction. The so-called gig economy of millions of self-employed workers is beginning to go under; most of these people will fall into serious debt and will have to reinvent themselves in some new way.
The social consequences will be long-lasting. The gap between the rich and everyone else, already jarring to social stability, will only widen: The less money you earn now, the less able you are to ride out the pandemic at home without going out to put food on the table—and therefore the more susceptible you are to the disease. Ironically, it is many of these less fortunate—“first responders” like the cashiers and stockers at big outlets such as Walmart and Target, warehouse workers, and delivery people—who are keeping the U.S. economy and indeed American society running right now, and at little better than minimum wage. And they’re not happy, understandably, with their lot. However soon the coronavirus dies out, that social instability is not going away.
“This is not going to be an easy recovery once we do hit bottom,” said Lawrence White of New York University. “I’m afraid of the deterioration of intangible but very important relationships, whether supply chain relationships or employment relationships. Or customer relationships. Or lender-borrower relationships. The longer we go, the more they deteriorate, and the harder it is to recreate what we had.”
Some analysts argue that the markets are doing the best they can with little information or precedent, and typically markets try to price in worst-case scenarios, with a great deal of success most of the time.
“Financial markets are forward looking,” said Liaquat Ahamed, a former bond trader and author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book Lords of Finance, in an email. “We knew just anecdotally that millions of people had been thrown out of work because of the lockdown. So the unemployment numbers are not news. What matters now for the stock market is how long this lockdown has to be. With the $2 trillion package (10% of GDP) the federal government has been remarkably aggressive in providing a cushion that could tide us through the next six weeks (i.e. 10% of the year). The trillion dollar question is will the lockdown have to be longer than the middle to end of May?”
That’s probably a safe bet at this point, with health experts saying the coronavirus could linger on through the summer, and possibly recur in the fall. What is hardest of all for markets to digest now is the sheer, unprecedented speed of the economic shutdown, which has stalled the entire world economy in a matter of weeks. “Whereas the Great Depression was a slow-motion economic disaster, we are experiencing ours in hyperspeed,” said Lawrence Glickman, a historian at Cornell University.
In the longer term, the larger question is how this changes not only the United States but also the globalized trading system—and the international community itself. For U.S. President Donald Trump and key advisors such as Peter Navarro, his chief trade negotiator, the crisis is also an opportunity to shut down globalization, especially by “decoupling” from China, which has been their apparent goal ever since this frankly protectionist president took office. “If we learn anything from this crisis, it should be never again, never again should we have to depend on the rest of the world for our essential medicines and countermeasures,” Navarro told the White House briefing on Thursday. “And if there’s any vindication, it’s the president’s Buy American, secure borders, and a strong manufacturing base philosophy, strategy, and belief.”
Many experts are now suggesting the neo-isolationists will have the upper hand post-crisis. The coronavirus is threatening “the economic and political sinews of globalization, and causing them to unravel to a certain degree,” the Yale University disease historian Frank Snowden told the Wall Street Journal. He said the “coronavirus is emphatically a disease of globalization,” proving most damaging to cosmopolitan cities such as New York that are “densely populated and linked by rapid air travel, by movements of tourists, of refugees, all kinds of businesspeople, all kinds of interlocking networks.”
Against those trends the advocates of global capitalism will have to find fresh ways to justify a rebirth of the international system and turn globalization into something more than what it has been, which is mainly a profit machine built on complex supply chains and cheap labor. “The question is whether this crisis of capitalism is different from the many that have come before,” said Cornell’s Glickman. “Will the legitimacy of the system be challenged in a thoroughgoing way, as it was not in 2008-2009? Will political solutions, such as Medicare for All, that seemed extreme a few weeks ago gain political purchase? Will we change how we value labor, now that we see that restaurant, retail, postal, health care workers, and journalists (among many others) are doing essential labor that is massively underpaid? Will unionism take off, in the wake of the labor actions by Instacart and Amazon workers?”
Are the markets really pricing all this stuff in right now? Probably not.
April 3: This story was updated with the Dow’s close.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-03--Suleimani’s Absence Has Been No Problem for Iran in Syria

Suleimani ’ s Absence Has Been No Problem for Iran in Syria At five past noon on Feb.17 , Jad Mubarak received the text message he had long feared .
( The name is a pseudonym to protect his identity in a contentious warzone . )
Russia was raining bombs on the last two hospitals in Darat Izza in the west of Syria ’ s Aleppo province , a warning that the regime offensive had reached his town and that Iran-backed militias were attacking on the ground .
Mubarak , a 29-year-old student of politics and a part-time humanitarian worker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the side of his newlywed wife .
Amid the deafening explosions , he held her close , looked her in the eyes , and told her everything would be all right .
The truth was that he had no idea where to take her and how long he would be able to keep her safe .
The couple were among a million Syrians forced on the run with nowhere to go .
They were trapped between Iranian militias , a sealed Turkish border , and jihadi rebels whom they did not trust .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least twice before .
They huddled in olive groves and burned anything they found to keep warm in the bitter cold .
If they managed to make it to Turkey , they could be shot at again by Greek soldiers as they tried to cross into Europe .
By the time Turkey and Russia signed a cease-fire to provide some relief in early March , Syria ’ s Bashar al-Assad had reclaimed the M4 and M5 highways , the crucial supply lines running through the last rebel-held territory .
But the decisive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ al-Sham , the former al Qaeda affiliate in charge of the enclave , was not played by the Syrian army but by those Iran-backed Shiite militias .
Their participation was not just about political or sectarian ideologies , nor just to enable Assad , Iran ’ s ally , to reclaim swaths of land .
It was also designed to remind the United States and Russia of Iran ’ s relevance in the region .
Since the U.S. assassination of Qassem Suleimani , the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who bolstered Assad and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there has been some doubt about Iran ’ s sway in Syria and its command and control over a fractious group of militias on the ground .
The coronavirus pandemic has also hit Iran especially hard , fueling speculation in the United States that the government may be weakening .
Iran has been determined , in the face of all this , to demonstrate to all onlookers its commitment to remaining in the region whatever the costs .
While the United States hoped that Suleimani ’ s assassination in January would slow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iran has instead doubled down .
Yahya al-Aridi , the spokesperson of the Syrian opposition ’ s political negotiations committee , said that since Suleimani ’ s killing Iran has been even more desperate to show that it counted .
“ Iran is a pariah state now .
Americans and Turks talk , Turks and Russians talk , Russians and Americans talk , but nobody pays attention to Iranians .
They are being sidelined .
They wanted to make up for that militarily in Idlib and Aleppo , ” Aridi said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We are here .
We have a say in what goes on in Syria.
’ ” Shortly before Russia and Turkey signed an agreement to cease fire in the rebel pocket , Brig .
Gen. Esmail Qaani , Suleimani ’ s successor , visited Aleppo as a demonstration of Iran ’ s resolve to consolidate the gains it had long fought for .
A Sunni stronghold and the financial powerhouse of the country , Aleppo is both historically and economically connected to Turkey .
Iran now wishes to project its Shiite power there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show off that the Levantine nations are now satellites in its orbit .
Iran ’ s arc of influence also traverses through another Sunni bastion , Deir Ezzor .
Iran ’ s efforts there are focused on winning over Syrian hearts and minds .
Feras Allawi , a local journalist , said that Iran had set up cultural centers in several cities in the province to soften locals toward them and spread Persian culture as well as impart the doctrine of wilayat al-faqih , a Shiite system of thought articulated by Ayatollah Ruhollah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social order of the current Iranian regime .
“ There are Iranian cultural centers in Deir Ezzor city , Bukamal , Mayadeen , and Sabikhan .
These centers are dedicated to integrating the local young people in the Persian culture and the Shiite religion , ” Allawi said .
“ Farsi is taught , and students who perform well are rewarded .
In addition , trips are organized from Deir Ezzor to Iran , and Shiite doctrines are included in the cultural lectures given by Iranian Shiite clerics who visit.
” Once Idlib @ @ @ @ @ @ @ connect an uninterrupted swath of territory from Tehran to the cities of Homs and Latakia , Syria ’ s main port city on the Mediterranean ; the latter two are already under regime control .
Capt .
Naji Mostafa , the spokesperson of the Turkey-backed rebels of the National Liberation Front , said that Iran ’ s militias had dug their heels in over half a dozen newly occupied territories and will use them to their advantage in the impending clashes in Idlib as well as in the final political settlement to conclude @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iran-backed militia members reportedly died in the fighting , nine of them from the Lebanon-based Hezbollah .
So far there are no signs that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah are planning to leave southern Syrian areas bordering Israel , despite coming under attack by the Israeli military .
But one Western diplomat who regularly visits Syria told Foreign Policy that Iran had agreed to eventually hand the area to the Syrian Arab Army—though only under one condition .
“ Iranian militias will not exactly leave : They will become a part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positions , ” he said .
“ And then no one can object to their presence as outsiders.
” a The key to Iran ’ s failure or success in Syria , the diplomat continued , is Russia .
The two are squabbling over spoils of war with completely different visions of Syria ’ s future .
Russia wants to present itself as a statesman globally and advocates a political resolution .
It has a tacit understanding with Israel that it won ’ t interfere if Israel attacks Iran ’ s arms depots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Russian analyst , said Moscow was silent because it was satisfied with the current military balance in the region , i.e.
, Israel in possession of nuclear arms .
“ Iran lags behind Israel in military superiority , ” Mirgorod said .
“ It is trying to compensate for it by forming anti-Israel political and geographic projects , including the Shia crescent , as well as keeping open the chances of resuming its nuclear program.
” For now , Iran is buying itself time in Syria , so that it can find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Suleimani , moving around the region to coordinate and use Iran ’ s growing regional power .
Iran expects that in time another leader will emerge .
And even as economic sanctions and the coronavirus take their toll in the meantime , Iran has shown Syrians and Americans alike that its plans to acquire power in the region remain unchanged .

At five past noon on Feb.17, Jad Mubarak received the text message he had long feared. (The name is a pseudonym to protect his identity in a contentious warzone.) Russia was raining bombs on the last two hospitals in Darat Izza in the west of Syria’s Aleppo province, a warning that the regime offensive had reached his town and that Iran-backed militias were attacking on the ground. Mubarak, a 29-year-old student of politics and a part-time humanitarian worker, ran back home to be at the side of his newlywed wife. Amid the deafening explosions, he held her close, looked her in the eyes, and told her everything would be all right. The truth was that he had no idea where to take her and how long he would be able to keep her safe.
At five past noon on Feb.17, Jad Mubarak received the text message he had long feared. (The name is a pseudonym to protect his identity in a contentious warzone.) Russia was raining bombs on the last two hospitals in Darat Izza in the west of Syria’s Aleppo province, a warning that the regime offensive had reached his town and that Iran-backed militias were attacking on the ground. Mubarak, a 29-year-old student of politics and a part-time humanitarian worker, ran back home to be at the side of his newlywed wife. Amid the deafening explosions, he held her close, looked her in the eyes, and told her everything would be all right. The truth was that he had no idea where to take her and how long he would be able to keep her safe.
The couple were among a million Syrians forced on the run with nowhere to go. They were trapped between Iranian militias, a sealed Turkish border, and jihadi rebels whom they did not trust. Most of those million had been displaced at least twice before. They huddled in olive groves and burned anything they found to keep warm in the bitter cold. If they managed to make it to Turkey, they could be shot at again by Greek soldiers as they tried to cross into Europe. By the time Turkey and Russia signed a cease-fire to provide some relief in early March, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad had reclaimed the M4 and M5 highways, the crucial supply lines running through the last rebel-held territory.
But the decisive role in the offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the former al Qaeda affiliate in charge of the enclave, was not played by the Syrian army but by those Iran-backed Shiite militias. Their participation was not just about political or sectarian ideologies, nor just to enable Assad, Iran’s ally, to reclaim swaths of land. It was also designed to remind the United States and Russia of Iran’s relevance in the region.
Since the U.S. assassination of Qassem Suleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who bolstered Assad and made Syria a strategic backyard for Tehran, there has been some doubt about Iran’s sway in Syria and its command and control over a fractious group of militias on the ground. The coronavirus pandemic has also hit Iran especially hard, fueling speculation in the United States that the government may be weakening. Iran has been determined, in the face of all this, to demonstrate to all onlookers its commitment to remaining in the region whatever the costs. While the United States hoped that Suleimani’s assassination in January would slow Iran’s activities in Syria, Iran has instead doubled down.
Yahya al-Aridi, the spokesperson of the Syrian opposition’s political negotiations committee, said that since Suleimani’s killing Iran has been even more desperate to show that it counted. “Iran is a pariah state now. Americans and Turks talk, Turks and Russians talk, Russians and Americans talk, but nobody pays attention to Iranians. They are being sidelined. They wanted to make up for that militarily in Idlib and Aleppo,” Aridi said. “They wanted to say that, ‘We are here. We have a say in what goes on in Syria.’”
Shortly before Russia and Turkey signed an agreement to cease fire in the rebel pocket, Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani, Suleimani’s successor, visited Aleppo as a demonstration of Iran’s resolve to consolidate the gains it had long fought for. A Sunni stronghold and the financial powerhouse of the country, Aleppo is both historically and economically connected to Turkey. Iran now wishes to project its Shiite power there, both to strengthen Assad and to show off that the Levantine nations are now satellites in its orbit.
Iran’s arc of influence also traverses through another Sunni bastion, Deir Ezzor. Iran’s efforts there are focused on winning over Syrian hearts and minds. Feras Allawi, a local journalist, said that Iran had set up cultural centers in several cities in the province to soften locals toward them and spread Persian culture as well as impart the doctrine of wilayat al-faqih, a Shiite system of thought articulated by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and manifested in the political and social order of the current Iranian regime. “There are Iranian cultural centers in Deir Ezzor city, Bukamal, Mayadeen, and Sabikhan. These centers are dedicated to integrating the local young people in the Persian culture and the Shiite religion,” Allawi said. “Farsi is taught, and students who perform well are rewarded. In addition, trips are organized from Deir Ezzor to Iran, and Shiite doctrines are included in the cultural lectures given by Iranian Shiite clerics who visit.”
Once Idlib falls under Iranian control, it will connect an uninterrupted swath of territory from Tehran to the cities of Homs and Latakia, Syria’s main port city on the Mediterranean; the latter two are already under regime control. Capt. Naji Mostafa, the spokesperson of the Turkey-backed rebels of the National Liberation Front, said that Iran’s militias had dug their heels in over half a dozen newly occupied territories and will use them to their advantage in the impending clashes in Idlib as well as in the final political settlement to conclude the war. Between 20 and 50 Iran-backed militia members reportedly died in the fighting, nine of them from the Lebanon-based Hezbollah.
So far there are no signs that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah are planning to leave southern Syrian areas bordering Israel, despite coming under attack by the Israeli military. But one Western diplomat who regularly visits Syria told Foreign Policy that Iran had agreed to eventually hand the area to the Syrian Arab Army—though only under one condition. “Iranian militias will not exactly leave: They will become a part of Assad’s army holding key positions,” he said. “And then no one can object to their presence as outsiders.” a
The key to Iran’s failure or success in Syria, the diplomat continued, is Russia. The two are squabbling over spoils of war with completely different visions of Syria’s future. Russia wants to present itself as a statesman globally and advocates a political resolution. It has a tacit understanding with Israel that it won’t interfere if Israel attacks Iran’s arms depots in the country. Denis Mirgorod, a Russian analyst, said Moscow was silent because it was satisfied with the current military balance in the region, i.e., Israel in possession of nuclear arms. “Iran lags behind Israel in military superiority,” Mirgorod said. “It is trying to compensate for it by forming anti-Israel political and geographic projects, including the Shia crescent, as well as keeping open the chances of resuming its nuclear program.”
For now, Iran is buying itself time in Syria, so that it can find someone to fulfill the role once played by Suleimani, moving around the region to coordinate and use Iran’s growing regional power. Iran expects that in time another leader will emerge. And even as economic sanctions and the coronavirus take their toll in the meantime, Iran has shown Syrians and Americans alike that its plans to acquire power in the region remain unchanged.


foreignpolicy--2020-04-03--Is This the End of Globalization?

Is This the End of Globalization?

The commander of the USS Theodore Roosevelt had two direct calls with top Navy aides before his warning about the @ @ @ @ @ publicly .

FP-Ask-the-editor-Ravi-FPLive-Site-3-2-2 Viewers of FP Live regularly see host Ravi Agrawal quiz world leaders and policymakers about issues such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, the state of the global economy, and competition betwee...Show moren the United States and China. Now it’s your turn to interrogate the host. In a special Ask-Me-Anything episode on FP Live, Agrawal will field your questions in conversation with executive editor Amelia Lester. Anything the magazine regularly covers is fair game, in addition to questions about how FP makes its decisions. The Ask-Me-Anything edition is open to anyone. Please write in and submit your questions below.
A crowd of women wearing scarves on their heads and colorful garb hold torches during a demonstration demanding the restoration of peace in India's northeastern Manipur state in Imphal on July 10. Is the world standing by as ethnic cleansing takes place in the Indian state of Manipur? Since May, violence between the Meitei ethnic majority and the Kuki minority has torn through the sma...Show morell state bordering Myanmar in India’s northeast. Mobs have burned hundreds of homes and churches, and tens of thousands of people have fled. The conflict has largely been ignored by Western media, despite global attention focused on India, which is the rotating host of the G-20 this year. What is actually going on in Manipur? What should New Delhi do? What are the ramifications for India, Myanmar, and the world? Indian journalist Barkha Dutt has reported extensively from Manipur this year. Join her and defense expert Sushant Singh, who has chronicled the conflict in Foreign Policy, for a FP Live conversation with host Ravi Agrawal.