foreignpolicy--2020-04-16--Coronavirus Cases Pass 2 Million Worldwide

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : Global coronavirus cases pass two million , Gantz and Netanyahu fail to reach a unity deal in Israel , and U.S. alleges China is breaching a ban on nuclear testing .
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .
Coronavirus cases worldwide have doubled in the past two weeks , bringing the total to over two million .
The United States remains the epicenter , responsible for almost a third of all cases , with approximately 636,000 people infected across the country .
The United States continues to have the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On Wednesday , it registered its highest daily death toll , beating out the record set the previous day , as almost 2,500 deaths were reported .
Per capita , Europe has suffered the highest death rate with countries such as Spain , Italy , France and the United Kingdom all experiencing a higher proportion of deaths than the United States .
However , the number of new cases per day is falling in Spain and Italy , whereas the trend remains flat in France , the United Kingdom , and the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet fallen .
As the public health situation deteriorates so does the economic one , and pressure is building to reopen economies shut down by the pandemic .
Robert Redfield , the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , said that a number of U.S. states may reopen on May 1 .
“ There are a number of counties within this country that have not experienced really any coronavirus despite testing , ” Redfield told ABC .
“ There are a number of states—19 , 20 states—that really have had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think we will see some states that are , the governors feel that they ’ re ready , we ’ re poised to assist them with that reopening.
” Will the global economy ever recover ?
Foreign Policy asked nine leading global thinkers , including two Nobel-Prize-winning economists , to weigh in with their predictions for the future economic and financial order once the coronavirus pandemic subsides .
Laura D ’ Andrea Tyson warns that those on the bottom rungs may suffer the most immediate effects , “ Many low-wage , low-skill , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by small firms , will not return with the eventual recovery , ” she writes .
Can we trust the coronavirus numbers ?
Experts have warned repeatedly that recorded numbers , whether coronavirus cases or deaths , are likely undercounted due to testing shortages and prioritizing the living over the dead when it comes to testing .
However , a report by ProPublica looking at deaths in major U.S. metropolitan areas shows just how far off the count may be .
In New York , 200 deaths were recorded per day outside of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week , the usual average is 35 per day .
Israeli leaders fail to reach deal .
Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz failed to agree to a unity deal before a midnight deadline last night , opening the door to a possible fourth election in just over one year .
The failed talks mean that the Israeli Knesset now has three weeks to choose another candidate who could then attempt to form a government by gaining the support of 61 legislators ; if that candidate can ’ t reach a majority then a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Netanyahu and Gantz are continuing to negotiate for the next 21 days , meaning that a unity deal between them remains a possibility .
The ongoing impasse is something of a boost for Netanyahu , whose corruption trial is due to begin next month .
The prime minister coaxed his rival Benny Gantz into abandoning a promise not to enter government with Netanyahu ’ s Likud party , shattering Gantz ’ s Blue and White coalition and sending his poll numbers plummeting .
Meanwhile , a recent poll showed that 64 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handling of the coronavirus pandemic .
Moon Jae-in ’ s party wins big in Korean elections .
South Korea ’ s Democratic Party won a historic landslide victory in parliamentary elections , providing a resounding vote of approval for President Moon Jae-in as the country slowly emerges from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic with its reputation enhanced .
The Democratic Party and its affiliate party won three-fifths of the 300 seats in South Korea ’ s national assembly .
It ’ s the first time in 16 years that a left-aligned party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country .
U.S. Navy complains of harassment in Persian Gulf .
The U.S. Navy said Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels conducted “ dangerous and provocative ” approaches to U.S. Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf in a statement on Wednesday .
The U.S. Fifth Fleet said it was in international waters and carrying out exercises when the boats approached .
Iran has yet to respond to the U.S. statement .
Jobless claims released today .
The U.S. Department of Labor will release its weekly unemployment claims today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous records and today ’ s numbers will provide an insight into how deep the U.S. unemployment crisis may be .
Yesterday , the U.S. released more grim economic figures for the month of March : industrial output suffered its biggest drop since 1946 and headline retail sales have fallen by 8.7 percent .
U.S. alleges China breaking nuclear test treaty .
The United States has alleged that China may be flouting a nuclear testing ban in a new State Department report .
The report highlights “ concerns ” that China may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nuclear Test Ban Treaty due to activities that suggest zero-yield tests—explosions without a nuclear chain reaction—at the Lop Nur test site .
“ China ’ s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round , its use of explosive containment chambers , extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur and a lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities … raise concerns regarding its adherence to the zero yield standard , ” the report said .
U.S.-Chinese relations have soured recently over the coronavirus pandemic , with the United States accusing China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak at its outset .
In December , the White House formally invited China to begin arms control talks .
EU and U.K. agree to Brexit negotiating dates .
The European Union and United Kingdom have agreed dates for the next three rounds of Brexit negotiations following a period of limbo brought on by the coronavirus pandemic .
The top negotiators for both sides , the EU ’ s Michel Barnier and Britain ’ s David Frost met via videoconference to prepare the meetings in a conversation they described as “ constructive.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the weeks of April 20 , May 11 , and June 1 .
Despite the coronavirus pandemic derailing politics and public life as usual , the British government is not planning to extend the transition period beyond December 31 .
Germany to ease lockdown .
Germany is following the lead of its southern neighbor Austria by preparing to ease its lockdown measures .
Starting May 4 , Germany will begin reopening smaller shops and allowing schools to reopen , with priority given to final-year students .
Hairdressers will also be allowed to open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , restaurants , and cinemas would still be banned .
German Chancellor Angela Merkel played down talk of larger scale reopening , saying Germany had achieved merely a “ fragile intermediate success ” in its battle against the coronavirus .
IMF warns of social unrest .
The International Monetary Fund has warned of social unrest developing in countries where coronavirus prevention measures are seen as insufficient or unfair to poorer workers .
The IMF said that although governments have taken swift action to inject stimulus funds into their economies , even more money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The organization expects global public debt to rise by 13 percent in 2020 to almost 96 percent of global gross domestic product .
If lockdown doesn ’ t have you feeling enough claustrophobia you can now truly test yourself with a visit to the depths of a 5,000 year-old Egyptian tomb .
Luckily you won ’ t have to deal with travel restrictions , as the Egyptian Tourist Board is promoting the site as a three-demensional experience online , hoping to entice travellers once normal flight service resumes .
Viewers can explore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as the Coptic Red monastery and the Ben Ezra synagogue in 3-D thanks to modeling by Harvard University .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Global coronavirus cases pass two million , Gantz and Netanyahu fail to reach a unity deal in Israel , and U.S. alleges China is breaching a ban on nuclear testing .
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Global coronavirus cases pass two million, Gantz and Netanyahu fail to reach a unity deal in Israel, and U.S. alleges China is breaching a ban on nuclear testing.
We welcome your feedback at morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.
What Will the Global Economy Look Like After the Pandemic?
Coronavirus cases worldwide have doubled in the past two weeks, bringing the total to over two million. The United States remains the epicenter, responsible for almost a third of all cases, with approximately 636,000 people infected across the country.
The United States continues to have the highest recorded death rate at 28,586. On Wednesday, it registered its highest daily death toll, beating out the record set the previous day, as almost 2,500 deaths were reported.
Per capita, Europe has suffered the highest death rate with countries such as Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom all experiencing a higher proportion of deaths than the United States. However, the number of new cases per day is falling in Spain and Italy, whereas the trend remains flat in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, where new cases have not yet fallen.
As the public health situation deteriorates so does the economic one, and pressure is building to reopen economies shut down by the pandemic. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that a number of U.S. states may reopen on May 1. “There are a number of counties within this country that have not experienced really any coronavirus despite testing,” Redfield told ABC. “There are a number of states—19, 20 states—that really have had limited impact from it. So I think we will see some states that are, the governors feel that they’re ready, we’re poised to assist them with that reopening.”
Will the global economy ever recover? Foreign Policy asked nine leading global thinkers, including two Nobel-Prize-winning economists, to weigh in with their predictions for the future economic and financial order once the coronavirus pandemic subsides. Laura D’Andrea Tyson warns that those on the bottom rungs may suffer the most immediate effects, “Many low-wage, low-skill, in-person service jobs, especially those provided by small firms, will not return with the eventual recovery,” she writes.
Can we trust the coronavirus numbers? Experts have warned repeatedly that recorded numbers, whether coronavirus cases or deaths, are likely undercounted due to testing shortages and prioritizing the living over the dead when it comes to testing. However, a report by ProPublica looking at deaths in major U.S. metropolitan areas shows just how far off the count may be. In New York, 200 deaths were recorded per day outside of hospitals or nursing homes in the past week, the usual average is 35 per day.
What We’re Following Today
Israeli leaders fail to reach deal. Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz failed to agree to a unity deal before a midnight deadline last night, opening the door to a possible fourth election in just over one year. The failed talks mean that the Israeli Knesset now has three weeks to choose another candidate who could then attempt to form a government by gaining the support of 61 legislators; if that candidate can’t reach a majority then a snap election would automatically be triggered. Netanyahu and Gantz are continuing to negotiate for the next 21 days, meaning that a unity deal between them remains a possibility.
The ongoing impasse is something of a boost for Netanyahu, whose corruption trial is due to begin next month. The prime minister coaxed his rival Benny Gantz into abandoning a promise not to enter government with Netanyahu’s Likud party, shattering Gantz’s Blue and White coalition and sending his poll numbers plummeting. Meanwhile, a recent poll showed that 64 percent of Israelis are satisfied with Netanyahu’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Moon Jae-in’s party wins big in Korean elections. South Korea’s Democratic Party won a historic landslide victory in parliamentary elections, providing a resounding vote of approval for President Moon Jae-in as the country slowly emerges from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic with its reputation enhanced. The Democratic Party and its affiliate party won three-fifths of the 300 seats in South Korea’s national assembly. It’s the first time in 16 years that a left-aligned party has won a parliamentary majority in the country.
U.S. Navy complains of harassment in Persian Gulf. The U.S. Navy said Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels conducted “dangerous and provocative” approaches to U.S. Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf in a statement on Wednesday. The U.S. Fifth Fleet said it was in international waters and carrying out exercises when the boats approached. Iran has yet to respond to the U.S. statement.
Jobless claims released today. The U.S. Department of Labor will release its weekly unemployment claims today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Results from recent weeks have shattered previous records and today’s numbers will provide an insight into how deep the U.S. unemployment crisis may be. Yesterday, the U.S. released more grim economic figures for the month of March: industrial output suffered its biggest drop since 1946 and headline retail sales have fallen by 8.7 percent.
Keep an Eye On
U.S. alleges China breaking nuclear test treaty. The United States has alleged that China may be flouting a nuclear testing ban in a new State Department report. The report highlights “concerns” that China may be out of compliance with the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty due to activities that suggest zero-yield tests—explosions without a nuclear chain reaction—at the Lop Nur test site.
“China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur and a lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities … raise concerns regarding its adherence to the zero yield standard,” the report said. U.S.-Chinese relations have soured recently over the coronavirus pandemic, with the United States accusing China of covering up the extent of the outbreak at its outset. In December, the White House formally invited China to begin arms control talks.
EU and U.K. agree to Brexit negotiating dates. The European Union and United Kingdom have agreed dates for the next three rounds of Brexit negotiations following a period of limbo brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. The top negotiators for both sides, the EU’s Michel Barnier and Britain’s David Frost met via videoconference to prepare the meetings in a conversation they described as “constructive.” The negotiations will now take place during the weeks of April 20, May 11, and June 1. Despite the coronavirus pandemic derailing politics and public life as usual, the British government is not planning to extend the transition period beyond December 31.
Germany to ease lockdown. Germany is following the lead of its southern neighbor Austria by preparing to ease its lockdown measures. Starting May 4, Germany will begin reopening smaller shops and allowing schools to reopen, with priority given to final-year students. Hairdressers will also be allowed to open, but larger gathering points like bars, restaurants, and cinemas would still be banned. German Chancellor Angela Merkel played down talk of larger scale reopening, saying Germany had achieved merely a “fragile intermediate success” in its battle against the coronavirus.
IMF warns of social unrest. The International Monetary Fund has warned of social unrest developing in countries where coronavirus prevention measures are seen as insufficient or unfair to poorer workers. The IMF said that although governments have taken swift action to inject stimulus funds into their economies, even more money would be needed once the crisis subsides. The organization expects global public debt to rise by 13 percent in 2020 to almost 96 percent of global gross domestic product.
Odds and Ends
If lockdown doesn’t have you feeling enough claustrophobia you can now truly test yourself with a visit to the depths of a 5,000 year-old Egyptian tomb. Luckily you won’t have to deal with travel restrictions, as the Egyptian Tourist Board is promoting the site as a three-demensional experience online, hoping to entice travellers once normal flight service resumes. Viewers can explore Queen Meresankh III’s tomb, as well as the Coptic Red monastery and the Ben Ezra synagogue in 3-D thanks to modeling by Harvard University.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.
Image credit: Rich Fury/Getty Images


foreignpolicy--2020-01-07--U.S. Allies Urge Restraint With Iran

U.S. Allies Urge Restraint With Iran

Here is today ’ s Foreign Policy brief : How the world is responding to rising U.S.-Iran tensions , Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar ’ s forces claim a strategic coastal city , and pension reform talks resume between France ’ s unions and its government .
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every day , please sign up here .
Thousands of mourners gathered in the streets of Tehran on Monday for Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani ’ s funeral , where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wept over his coffin and his successor , Esmail Ghaani @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by U.S. drone strike on Friday has prompted fears of retaliation in the region .
The Pentagon denied reports that it is imminently withdrawing troops from Iraq after the Iraqi parliament asked the government to eject the U.S. military , FP ’ s Lara Seligman reports .
Meanwhile , some U.S. allies began to distance themselves from the decision to kill Suleimani , with both Israel and NATO emphasizing they had no involvement in the strike .
Britain , France , Germany , Saudi Arabia , and the U.N. secretary-general have all urged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s threat to target Iranian cultural sites .
Britain is reducing its embassy staff in Iran and Iraq , Sky News reports .
Zarif blocked .
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had requested to attend a United Nations Security Council meeting on Thursday , but the United States denied his visa , FP ’ s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer report .
The meeting would have provided the diplomat with his first opportunity to address the global community about Suleimani ’ s assassination .
Barring Zarif @ @ @ @ @ @ @ headquarters agreement .
Nuclear sanctions ?
The European parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement—Britain , France , and Germany—will decide this week whether to begin a dispute resolution process after Iran took a major step away from the accord .
The process could mean renewed U.N. sanctions on Iran , which has criticized the European powers for not protecting it from harsh U.S. sanctions .
Libyan Gen. Haftar takes strategic city .
Gen. Khalifa Haftar ’ s Libyan National Army , which is fighting against the internationally-recognized government in Tripoli , said Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a strategic city on the Mediterranean coast held by government-aligned forces since 2016 .
The announcement comes as Turkey began deploying troops to support the government , signaling deeper involvement in Libya ’ s civil war—which increasingly looks like a proxy conflict .
Haftar ’ s months-long offensive in Tripoli is supported by Russian mercenaries and has displaced tens of thousands of people in and around the capital .
French unions , government resume talks .
Talks between France ’ s prime minister and public sector unions resume today after more than a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reform the country ’ s pension system , including raising the retirement age .
French President Emmanuel Macron is hoping for a “ quick compromise , ” as the government prepares to formally introduce a reform bill by the end of the month .
Still , transport is expected to be disrupted this week , and some unions have called for nationwide protests on Thursday and Saturday .
Polls show a majority of people in France support the protest movement .
U.S. could deport Mexican nationals to Guatemala .
The United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States to Guatemala under an agreement signed with the Central American country in July 2019 .
U.S. asylum officers received instruction in recent days that Mexican nationals should be considered part of the agreement , Reuters reports .
U.S. President Donald Trump is relying on his immigration policies in his 2020 campaign , but critics say asylum seekers would face danger in Guatemala .
The United States has signed similar deals with Honduras and El Salvador .
Chile ’ s student protesters .
Renewed protests disrupted university entrance exams in some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authorities to suspend the test at more than 60 sites .
The exams had already been suspended twice since November , when mass protests against social inequality rocked the country .
Demonstrations against Chile ’ s mostly privatized education system have grown in recent years .
A mystery illness in China .
At least 59 people have fallen sick with an unexplained severe respiratory illness in the Chinese city of Wuhan .
Though authorities have ruled out SARS , the memory of the 2002 outbreak has caused alarm .
Officials are scrambling to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Festival , when tens of millions of people travel in China .
No deaths have yet been reported .
More U.S. sanctions against Venezuela ?
The U.S. special envoy for Venezuela says the United States is considering imposing additional personal and economic sanctions on the government of President Nicolás Maduro after it sent troops to block opposition leader Juan Guaidó from entering the legislature for his reelection as congress chief .
A new study proposes an answer to a mysterious disappearance : Medieval Norse society in Greenland likely collapsed after hunting walruses to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to researchers .
Norse communities survived for more than 400 years in the Arctic , trading walrus tusks in European markets , which led to overhunting .
Climate change during the “ little ice age ” was also a contributing factor , the study finds .
For more from FP , visit foreignpolicy.com , subscribe here , or sign up for our other newsletters .
Send your tips , comments , questions , or corrections to morningbrief @ foreignpolicy.com .

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: How the world is responding to rising U.S.-Iran tensions , Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar ’s forces claim a strategic coastal city, and pension reform talks resume between France’s unions and its government.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: How the world is responding to rising U.S.-Iran tensions, Libyan Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s forces claim a strategic coastal city, and pension reform talks resume between France’s unions and its government.
If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every day, please sign up here.
World Responds to Suleimani’s Assassination
Thousands of mourners gathered in the streets of Tehran on Monday for Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani’s funeral, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wept over his coffin and his successor, Esmail Ghaani swore revenge. Suleimani’s assassination by U.S. drone strike on Friday has prompted fears of retaliation in the region. The Pentagon denied reports that it is imminently withdrawing troops from Iraq after the Iraqi parliament asked the government to eject the U.S. military, FP’s Lara Seligman reports.
Meanwhile, some U.S. allies began to distance themselves from the decision to kill Suleimani, with both Israel and NATO emphasizing they had no involvement in the strike. Britain, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and the U.N. secretary-general have all urged the United States to use restraint, particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to target Iranian cultural sites. Britain is reducing its embassy staff in Iran and Iraq, Sky News reports.
Zarif blocked. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had requested to attend a United Nations Security Council meeting on Thursday, but the United States denied his visa, FP’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer report. The meeting would have provided the diplomat with his first opportunity to address the global community about Suleimani’s assassination. Barring Zarif violates the terms of a 1947 U.N. headquarters agreement.
Nuclear sanctions? The European parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement—Britain, France, and Germany—will decide this week whether to begin a dispute resolution process after Iran took a major step away from the accord. The process could mean renewed U.N. sanctions on Iran, which has criticized the European powers for not protecting it from harsh U.S. sanctions.
What We’re Following Today
Libyan Gen. Haftar takes strategic city. Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, which is fighting against the internationally-recognized government in Tripoli, said Monday it had gained control of Sirte, a strategic city on the Mediterranean coast held by government-aligned forces since 2016. The announcement comes as Turkey began deploying troops to support the government, signaling deeper involvement in Libya’s civil war—which increasingly looks like a proxy conflict. Haftar’s months-long offensive in Tripoli is supported by Russian mercenaries and has displaced tens of thousands of people in and around the capital.
French unions, government resume talks. Talks between France’s prime minister and public sector unions resume today after more than a month of protests and strikes over plans to reform the country’s pension system, including raising the retirement age. French President Emmanuel Macron is hoping for a “quick compromise,” as the government prepares to formally introduce a reform bill by the end of the month. Still, transport is expected to be disrupted this week, and some unions have called for nationwide protests on Thursday and Saturday. Polls show a majority of people in France support the protest movement.
U.S. could deport Mexican nationals to Guatemala. The United States could soon send Mexicans seeking asylum in the United States to Guatemala under an agreement signed with the Central American country in July 2019. U.S. asylum officers received instruction in recent days that Mexican nationals should be considered part of the agreement, Reuters reports. U.S. President Donald Trump is relying on his immigration policies in his 2020 campaign, but critics say asylum seekers would face danger in Guatemala. The United States has signed similar deals with Honduras and El Salvador.
Keep an Eye On
Chile’s student protesters. Renewed protests disrupted university entrance exams in some cities in Chile on Monday, leading authorities to suspend the test at more than 60 sites. The exams had already been suspended twice since November, when mass protests against social inequality rocked the country. Demonstrations against Chile’s mostly privatized education system have grown in recent years.
A mystery illness in China. At least 59 people have fallen sick with an unexplained severe respiratory illness in the Chinese city of Wuhan. Though authorities have ruled out SARS, the memory of the 2002 outbreak has caused alarm. Officials are scrambling to control the new illness before the Spring Festival, when tens of millions of people travel in China. No deaths have yet been reported.
More U.S. sanctions against Venezuela? The U.S. special envoy for Venezuela says the United States is considering imposing additional personal and economic sanctions on the government of President Nicolás Maduro after it sent troops to block opposition leader Juan Guaidó from entering the legislature for his reelection as congress chief.
Odds and Ends
A new study proposes an answer to a mysterious disappearance: Medieval Norse society in Greenland likely collapsed after hunting walruses to near extinction in the 15th century, according to researchers. Norse communities survived for more than 400 years in the Arctic, trading walrus tusks in European markets, which led to overhunting. Climate change during the “little ice age” was also a contributing factor, the study finds.
That’s it for today.
For more from FP, visit foreignpolicy.com, subscribe here, or sign up for our other newsletters. Send your tips, comments, questions, or corrections to morningbrief@foreignpolicy.com.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-06--Suleimani Is Dead, but Diplomacy Shouldn’t Be

Suleimani Is Dead , but Diplomacy Shouldn ’ t Be In the aftermath of the U.S. killing of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani last week , the past , as so often , seemed to offer a tempting parallel of the present , with the hashtags # WWIII and # FranzFerdinand flourishing on Twitter .
It ’ s unsurprising that such memories haunt the collective consciousness at times like this .
Western narratives of conflict turn around the world wars .
Hawks see enemies as nascent Hitlers , who must be crushed before they are given space to expand .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the catastrophic errors of 1914 , when Europe destroyed itself .
To be sure , there are genuine echoes of European imperialism ’ s first crisis in the situation today .
As the co-screenwriter of the new World War I-set film 1917 Krysty Wilson-Cairns explains , “ with the First World War , the motivations are obscure .
It was partly for profiteering , partly because empires were starting to lose their stakes abroad.
” Global and regional powers face similar issues in the modern Middle East .
The Pax Americana is in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence is stretched thin after almost 30 years of near-continuous war .
The U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia against Iran increasingly resembles war profiteering .
Russia hangs on to one of the last vestiges of Soviet imperial influence in Syria and is spending blood and treasure abroad despite facing more critical challenges at home as its economy sputters and government budgets are pressured .
Turkey is deploying troops to fight a war in Libya in an effort to resurrect the glory of the Ottoman Empire that perished in World War I , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the ruins of Syria .
And like Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 , Suleimani was a symbolically significant leader who was killed by an adversary entangled with the interests of major powers , though the U.S. military is a considerably different entity in scale and organization than Serbian nationalist terrorists .
But that should also offer hope , because the world has a range of diplomatic tools and options that were simply unavailable to the leaders of 1914 .
Without question , there has already been diplomatic blundering ; the Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Iran nuclear deal is in part responsible for the rapid escalation of the crisis in the Middle East .
But opponents of conflict must look to the tools the world has to resolve the crisis that it did not have then .
Instead of fatalistic cries of World War III , Americans and Iranians must remind their leaders of the need to go back to the negotiating table .
Perhaps the most important lesson of World War I is the value of diplomacy—of going to the table and making agreements , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and adhering to them because those commitments matter regardless of political expediency .
The decades leading up to World War I saw advanced new weapons and the formation of alliances calculated to achieve a balance of power in Europe ( and by extension to colonial empires and the world ) .
The risk of war—and the devastation that new weapons such as gas , bombers , and battleships might cause—was not lost on world leaders .
But addressing this on a large scale was virtually impossible , as diplomacy suffered from a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Before World War I , most countries viewed diplomacy as ad hoc , narrow in scope , and tailored to achieve specific objectives when the opportunity arose .
Diplomatic outreach was viewed with suspicion , in many cases simply because it was not the norm .
Governments communicated at the most senior levels to form alliances and address trade , but there were few full-time diplomats and even fewer venues through which multilateral negotiations could be facilitated .
Due to the lack of communication technology , inability to travel , and norms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was made less viable , as accurate information was unavailable and prone to miscalculation .
Major international negotiations , especially those that sought to develop consensus about the formation of international law , were conducted at sporadic summits such as the Hague Peace Conferences in 1899 and 1907 .
There being no universally respected objective entity that could be trusted to facilitate negotiations , initiatives languished under little continuity of effort and spasmodic focus .
Negotiations were conducted by appointed subject-matter experts and government officials who often had not dealt with their counterparties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even where agreements were struck , there were no respected third-party organizations that could be trusted to verify compliance .
One hundred years later , Americans and Iranians must drive their leaders to the table to resolve their differences in ways in which the leaders of World War I could not , and using the tools they lacked .
Modern world leaders , including those of the United States and Iran , have a far more robust diplomatic toolbox informed by regularized diplomacy , as well as the means to support it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more advanced , with numerous venues , willing partners , and back channels through which the Washington and Tehran can communicate with words rather than missiles .
There are numerous precedents , from the regular negotiations between the Koreas to the Cuban missile crisis itself , for how the United States and Iran might design a negotiation , build confidence , address very significant differences , and reach an agreement that at least prevents further escalation even if it fails to resolve their differences over nuclear weapons , terrorism , and proxy wars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already done so once .
Leaders in both countries benefit from access to virtually infinite information about each other , as they oversee vast intelligence organizations and access global media reporting , making miscalculation less likely .
The lack of formal diplomatic relations , which are more important between enemies than they are between allies , remains absurd .
But having relied on third parties such as Switzerland and back channels in Iraq to communicate diplomatically for years , the United States and Iran are still more than capable of exchanging messages with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if only the most basic of agreements is struck , both countries can leverage internal intelligence and third parties such as the United Nations or nongovernmental organizations to verify compliance by the other side on , for example , troop movements , weapons shipments , and missile launches .
Diplomatic engagement between the two is burdened by destabilizing factors—domestic political unrest , leaks , misinformation campaigns , the reach of social media , and climate change , to name a few—that make the formation of viable international agreements difficult .
But cutting across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outcomes of another war in the Middle East .
U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s latest tweets bring further bloodshed closer , but even the latest barrage of bellicose rhetoric does not make war a foregone conclusion .
Though the Trump administration has disengaged from the world ’ s institutions , even eschewing and defunding some of them , it is not too late to adopt serious confidence-building measures to get back to the negotiating table , even if it does not satisfy retaliatory urges and requires alleviating some of the maximum pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iran policy .
Iran is equally capable of resisting the forces driving it toward destabilizing activities and active plans to attack Israel , Saudi Arabia , U.S. forces , and others .
Iran can not win a war against the United States , nor can the United States afford to fight one .

In the aftermath of the U.S. killing of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani last week, the past, as so often, seemed to offer a tempting parallel of the present, with the hashtags #WWIII and #FranzFerdinand flourishing on Twitter. It’s unsurprising that such memories haunt the collective consciousness at times like this. Western narratives of conflict turn around the world wars. Hawks see enemies as nascent Hitlers, who must be crushed before they are given space to expand. Doves see a world ready to repeat the catastrophic errors of 1914, when Europe destroyed itself.
In the aftermath of the U.S. killing of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani last week, the past, as so often, seemed to offer a tempting parallel of the present, with the hashtags #WWIII and #FranzFerdinand flourishing on Twitter. It’s unsurprising that such memories haunt the collective consciousness at times like this. Western narratives of conflict turn around the world wars. Hawks see enemies as nascent Hitlers, who must be crushed before they are given space to expand. Doves see a world ready to repeat the catastrophic errors of 1914, when Europe destroyed itself.
To be sure, there are genuine echoes of European imperialism’s first crisis in the situation today. As the co-screenwriter of the new World War I-set film 1917 Krysty Wilson-Cairns explains, “with the First World War, the motivations are obscure. It was partly for profiteering, partly because empires were starting to lose their stakes abroad.” Global and regional powers face similar issues in the modern Middle East. The Pax Americana is in doubt as the United States’ superpower influence is stretched thin after almost 30 years of near-continuous war. The U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia against Iran increasingly resembles war profiteering.
Russia hangs on to one of the last vestiges of Soviet imperial influence in Syria and is spending blood and treasure abroad despite facing more critical challenges at home as its economy sputters and government budgets are pressured. Turkey is deploying troops to fight a war in Libya in an effort to resurrect the glory of the Ottoman Empire that perished in World War I, and it’s carving out lost territory from the ruins of Syria. And like Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, Suleimani was a symbolically significant leader who was killed by an adversary entangled with the interests of major powers, though the U.S. military is a considerably different entity in scale and organization than Serbian nationalist terrorists.
But that should also offer hope, because the world has a range of diplomatic tools and options that were simply unavailable to the leaders of 1914. Without question, there has already been diplomatic blundering; the Trump administration’s failure to keep the commitments to the Iran nuclear deal is in part responsible for the rapid escalation of the crisis in the Middle East. But opponents of conflict must look to the tools the world has to resolve the crisis that it did not have then. Instead of fatalistic cries of World War III, Americans and Iranians must remind their leaders of the need to go back to the negotiating table.
Perhaps the most important lesson of World War I is the value of diplomacy—of going to the table and making agreements, committing to them via signature and ratification, and adhering to them because those commitments matter regardless of political expediency. The decades leading up to World War I saw advanced new weapons and the formation of alliances calculated to achieve a balance of power in Europe (and by extension to colonial empires and the world). The risk of war—and the devastation that new weapons such as gas, bombers, and battleships might cause—was not lost on world leaders. But addressing this on a large scale was virtually impossible, as diplomacy suffered from a lack of infrastructure to facilitate international agreements.
Before World War I, most countries viewed diplomacy as ad hoc, narrow in scope, and tailored to achieve specific objectives when the opportunity arose. Diplomatic outreach was viewed with suspicion, in many cases simply because it was not the norm. Governments communicated at the most senior levels to form alliances and address trade, but there were few full-time diplomats and even fewer venues through which multilateral negotiations could be facilitated. Due to the lack of communication technology, inability to travel, and norms prohibiting meddling in domestic affairs, diplomacy was made less viable, as accurate information was unavailable and prone to miscalculation.
Major international negotiations, especially those that sought to develop consensus about the formation of international law, were conducted at sporadic summits such as the Hague Peace Conferences in 1899 and 1907. There being no universally respected objective entity that could be trusted to facilitate negotiations, initiatives languished under little continuity of effort and spasmodic focus. Negotiations were conducted by appointed subject-matter experts and government officials who often had not dealt with their counterparties before and therefore did not trust them. Even where agreements were struck, there were no respected third-party organizations that could be trusted to verify compliance.
One hundred years later, Americans and Iranians must drive their leaders to the table to resolve their differences in ways in which the leaders of World War I could not, and using the tools they lacked. Modern world leaders, including those of the United States and Iran, have a far more robust diplomatic toolbox informed by regularized diplomacy, as well as the means to support it. The nature of diplomacy is far more advanced, with numerous venues, willing partners, and back channels through which the Washington and Tehran can communicate with words rather than missiles.
There are numerous precedents, from the regular negotiations between the Koreas to the Cuban missile crisis itself, for how the United States and Iran might design a negotiation, build confidence, address very significant differences, and reach an agreement that at least prevents further escalation even if it fails to resolve their differences over nuclear weapons, terrorism, and proxy wars. They have, after all, already done so once. Leaders in both countries benefit from access to virtually infinite information about each other, as they oversee vast intelligence organizations and access global media reporting, making miscalculation less likely.
The lack of formal diplomatic relations, which are more important between enemies than they are between allies, remains absurd. But having relied on third parties such as Switzerland and back channels in Iraq to communicate diplomatically for years, the United States and Iran are still more than capable of exchanging messages with words rather than missiles. And even if only the most basic of agreements is struck, both countries can leverage internal intelligence and third parties such as the United Nations or nongovernmental organizations to verify compliance by the other side on, for example, troop movements, weapons shipments, and missile launches.
Diplomatic engagement between the two is burdened by destabilizing factors—domestic political unrest, leaks, misinformation campaigns, the reach of social media, and climate change, to name a few—that make the formation of viable international agreements difficult. But cutting across those factors are the infinitely worse possible outcomes of another war in the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tweets bring further bloodshed closer, but even the latest barrage of bellicose rhetoric does not make war a foregone conclusion. Though the Trump administration has disengaged from the world’s institutions, even eschewing and defunding some of them, it is not too late to adopt serious confidence-building measures to get back to the negotiating table, even if it does not satisfy retaliatory urges and requires alleviating some of the maximum pressure applied via the Trump administration’s Iran policy. Iran is equally capable of resisting the forces driving it toward destabilizing activities and active plans to attack Israel, Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces, and others. Iran cannot win a war against the United States, nor can the United States afford to fight one.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-06--Pentagon Bats Down Reports U.S. Is Leaving Iraq

Pentagon Bats Down Reports U.S. Is Leaving Iraq The U.S. Defense Department scrambled on Monday to knock down reports that the military is withdrawing from Iraq just hours after the Iraqi parliament voted on a nonbinding resolution asking the government to eject U.S. forces in retaliation for the assassination of a top Iranian general on Iraqi soil .
Multiple media outlets including the Washington Post reported Monday that the United States was withdrawing forces from Iraq , citing a letter sent from Brig .
Gen. William Seely , the commander of the U.S. task force in Iraq , to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The letter , which was unsigned , stated that “ in due deference to the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq , and as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister , [ the U.S. military ] will be repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement.
” But following the reports , the Pentagon rushed to deny that there would be an imminent U.S. withdrawal .
Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Gen. Mark Milley , the chairman of the Joint Chiefs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gaggle , telling reporters that they did not know where the letter came from and saying that there has been no decision to leave Iraq .
“ There is no decision to leave nor did we issue any plans to leave or prepare to leave—we are committed to the Defeat ISIS mission in Iraq alongside our allies and partners , ” Esper said .
The drama unfolded as the Middle East reeled from U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s decision last week to kill Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani , the Quds Force commander @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iranian after the supreme leader , a move that has raised fears of an all-out war .
The Pentagon has mobilized thousands of additional forces to the region in recent days and halted the fight against the Islamic State in order to respond to the increased threat that Tehran will retaliate .
The letter in question emerged just hours after the Iraqi parliament passed a nonbinding resolution asking the government to eject U.S. troops from the country .
The move was largely symbolic , as the expulsion of U.S. troops requires signoff from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confusion ensued after the informal briefing with Esper and Milley ended .
Reporters had just minutes to tweet the breaking news before Milley unexpectedly returned to the press room to provide additional information .
Milley said he had just spoken with Gen. Kenneth McKenzie , the commander of U.S. Central Command , who informed him that the letter was a mistake—although the Marine Corps general used more “ colorful ” language , according to Milley .
In fact , the document was a draft that was sent to the Iraqi government for coordination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces within Iraq , Milley said .
Milley noted that military leaders routinely coordinate and share drafts with their Iraqi counterparts in order to get feedback .
It appeared the draft was part of contingency planning in the aftermath of Suilemani ’ s killing and Gen. Seely ’ s attempt to notify his Iraqi counterparts that he was moving forces around within the country–not reflective of debate within the military leadership chain .
A U.S. official told Foreign Policy the draft letter was an indication of the U.S. military moving troops in , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the shifting security environment–not of preparations for a withdrawal .
The Washington Post reported that because the United States had suspended some training activities , it was moving training-related forces out of Iraq and bringing force protection forces into the country .
“ Bottom line , he said ‘ hey , shouldn ’ t have happened , draft… honest mistake , ’ ” Milley said , referring to the account from Gen. McKenzie .

The U.S. Defense Department scrambled on Monday to knock down reports that the military is withdrawing from Iraq just hours after the Iraqi parliament voted on a nonbinding resolution asking the government to eject U.S. forces in retaliation for the assassination of a top Iranian general on Iraqi soil.
The U.S. Defense Department scrambled on Monday to knock down reports that the military is withdrawing from Iraq just hours after the Iraqi parliament voted on a nonbinding resolution asking the government to eject U.S. forces in retaliation for the assassination of a top Iranian general on Iraqi soil.
Multiple media outlets including the Washington Post reported Monday that the United States was withdrawing forces from Iraq, citing a letter sent from Brig. Gen. William Seely, the commander of the U.S. task force in Iraq, to the deputy director of Combined Joint Operations Baghdad. The letter, which was unsigned, stated that “in due deference to the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq, and as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister, [the U.S. military] will be repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement.”
But following the reports, the Pentagon rushed to deny that there would be an imminent U.S. withdrawal. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, quickly called a media gaggle, telling reporters that they did not know where the letter came from and saying that there has been no decision to leave Iraq.
“There is no decision to leave nor did we issue any plans to leave or prepare to leave—we are committed to the Defeat ISIS mission in Iraq alongside our allies and partners,” Esper said.
The drama unfolded as the Middle East reeled from U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision last week to kill Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the Quds Force commander who was considered the second most powerful Iranian after the supreme leader, a move that has raised fears of an all-out war. The Pentagon has mobilized thousands of additional forces to the region in recent days and halted the fight against the Islamic State in order to respond to the increased threat that Tehran will retaliate.
The letter in question emerged just hours after the Iraqi parliament passed a nonbinding resolution asking the government to eject U.S. troops from the country. The move was largely symbolic, as the expulsion of U.S. troops requires signoff from Iraq’s executive branch.
More confusion ensued after the informal briefing with Esper and Milley ended. Reporters had just minutes to tweet the breaking news before Milley unexpectedly returned to the press room to provide additional information. Milley said he had just spoken with Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, who informed him that the letter was a mistake—although the Marine Corps general used more “colorful” language, according to Milley.
In fact, the document was a draft that was sent to the Iraqi government for coordination purposes due to the increased movement of forces within Iraq, Milley said.
Milley noted that military leaders routinely coordinate and share drafts with their Iraqi counterparts in order to get feedback. It appeared the draft was part of contingency planning in the aftermath of Suilemani’s killing and Gen. Seely’s attempt to notify his Iraqi counterparts that he was moving forces around within the country–not reflective of debate within the military leadership chain.
A U.S. official told Foreign Policy the draft letter was an indication of the U.S. military moving troops in, out and around the country due to the shifting security environment–not of preparations for a withdrawal.
The Washington Post reported that because the United States had suspended some training activities, it was moving training-related forces out of Iraq and bringing force protection forces into the country.
“Bottom line, he said ‘hey, shouldn’t have happened, draft… honest mistake,’” Milley said, referring to the account from Gen. McKenzie.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-06--Iran and the United States Have the Same Number of UNESCO World Heritage Sites

As the remarks sparked anger in Tehran , and despite Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ’ s attempts to soften the meaning of the president ’ s words , Trump doubled down on his threats on Sunday .
In comments to reporters aboard Air Force One , he said , “ They ’ re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people … and we ’ re not allowed to touch their cultural site ?
It doesn ’ t work that way.
” Iran features some of the world ’ s best preserved examples of ancient and medieval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Arg-e Bam citadel .
UNESCO , the United Nations body that administers a program to preserve World Heritage Sites , has selected 24 landmarks of cultural , scientific , and historical significance in Iran—the same number it has identified in the United States .
As seen in the chart below , there are more World Heritage Sites in Iran than there are in Greece or Turkey .
China and Italy jointly top the list with 55 such sites .
Ironically , given Trump ’ s threats , the United States led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in creating a program to preserve landmarks of cultural importance .
In 1965 , the White House hosted a conference calling for a “ World Heritage Trust ” to protect historical sites around the world for future generations , which eventually led to a global agreement adopted by UNESCO in 1972 .

Arg'e Bam, the pre-Islamic desert citadel that was the largest adobe monument in the world made of non-baked clay bricks, is seen on the 10th anniversary of the earthquake in the city of Bam, on Dec. 18, 2013. ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images
On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted about his readiness for retaliatory strikes against “52 Iranian sites,” including some important to “the Iranian culture”—an attack that would qualify as a war crime under international law.
As the remarks sparked anger in Tehran, and despite Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s attempts to soften the meaning of the president’s words, Trump doubled down on his threats on Sunday. In comments to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said, “They’re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people … and we’re not allowed to touch their cultural site? It doesn’t work that way.”
Iran features some of the world’s best preserved examples of ancient and medieval architecture, including the ruins of Persepolis and the Arg-e Bam citadel. UNESCO, the United Nations body that administers a program to preserve World Heritage Sites, has selected 24 landmarks of cultural, scientific, and historical significance in Iran—the same number it has identified in the United States. As seen in the chart below, there are more World Heritage Sites in Iran than there are in Greece or Turkey. China and Italy jointly top the list with 55 such sites.
Countries With More Than 15 UNESCO World Heritage Sites As of July 2019
Source: UNESCO
Ironically, given Trump’s threats, the United States led the way more than five decades ago in creating a program to preserve landmarks of cultural importance. In 1965, the White House hosted a conference calling for a “World Heritage Trust” to protect historical sites around the world for future generations, which eventually led to a global agreement adopted by UNESCO in 1972.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-06--Trump Administration Blocks Iran’s Top Diplomat From Addressing the U.N. Security Council

The Trump administration is barring Iran ’ s top diplomat from entering the United States this week to address the United Nations Security Council about the U.S. assassination of Iran ’ s top military official in Baghdad , violating the terms of a 1947 headquarters agreement requiring Washington to permit foreign officials into the country to conduct U.N. business , according to three diplomatic sources .
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif requested a visa a “ few weeks ago ” to enter the United States to attend a Jan. 9 Security Council meeting on the importance of upholding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ source familiar with the matter .
The Thursday meeting was to provide Tehran ’ s top diplomat with his first opportunity to directly address the world community since U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the Jan. 3 drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani , a top Iraqi militia leader , among others .
The Iranian government was awaiting word on the visa Monday when a Trump administration official phoned U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to inform him that the United States would not allow Zarif into the country , according to the Washington-based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United States and Iran engaged in tit-for-tat recriminations over the killing of Suleimani .
Trump tweeted over the weekend that if Iran retaliates for Suleimani ’ s death , it will face U.S. attacks on 52 targets—the number of hostages held by Iran in 1979 .
“ Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans , or American assets , we have … targeted 52 Iranian sites ( representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago ) , some at a very high level & @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and those targets , and Iran itself , WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD , ” he said .
“ The USA wants no more threats !
” Tehran , meanwhile , announced Sunday it was ending its commitment to limit enrichment of uranium as part of its 2015 nuclear deal , which Trump pulled out of in 2018 and then followed up by reimposing tough sanctions on Iran .
But even before the current crisis , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in recent months had sought to restrict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has studied in the United States and has extensive contacts with American journalists—to make his case to the American public during previous visits to the United States .
In July , the United States restricted his movement to a few blocks in Manhattan and Queens , preventing Zarif from making his regular visits to TV studios , universities , and think tanks .
Pompeo defended the decision , noting that American diplomats lack freedom to travel in Iran .
The United States broke off diplomatic relations with Iran after the revolution .
Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in midtown Manhattan to conduct U.N. business .
On the eve of the U.N. General Assembly debate in September 2019 , Pompeo hinted that he might bar the Iranian delegation , led by President Hassan Rouhani and Zarif , from entering the United States , saying that Iran was responsible for carrying out an earlier drone and missile strike on two critical Saudi Arabian oil installations .
“ The actions that the Iranian regime took violated the U.N. Charter , ” Pompeo said at the time .
“ If you ’ re connected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems to me it would be a reasonable thing to think about whether they ought to be prevented to attend a meeting which is about peace.
” But U.N. legal experts question whether Pompeo has the legal authority to bar the Iranians .
And the United States relented and granted the Iranians visas at the time .
“ Any foreign minister is entitled to address the Security Council at any time and the United States is obligated to provide access to the U.N. headquarters district , ” said Larry Johnson , a former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the U.S. agreement with the United Nations , “ they are absolutely obligated to let him in .
Johnson , who currently serves as an adjunct professor at Columbia University Law School , noted that the U.S. Congress , however , passed legislation in August 1947 , the so-called Public Law 80-357 , that granted the U.S. government the authority to bar foreign individuals invited by the United Nations to attend meetings at its New York City headquarters if they are deemed to pose a threat to U.S. national security .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the individual be “ expected to commit some act against the U.S. national security interest while here in the United States.
” The State Department and the U.S. Mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment , or a request to explain what the U.S. legal basis is for barring Zarif from entering the country .
A spokesperson for the U.N. secretary-general also declined comment .
It is not the first time , however , that the United States has prevented a foreign adversary from entering the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1988 , the Reagan administration barred the Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat from addressing the U.N. General Assembly on the grounds that he posed a threat to U.S. security .
At the time , Patricia M. Byrne , the U.S. representative in the host country committee , said the United States “ reserves to us … the right to bar the entry of those who represent a threat to our security.
” In response , the U.N. General Assembly traveled to Geneva to hear Arafat ’ s speech .
When the late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diplomatic rebellion at his country ’ s U.N. mission in March 2011 , tried to send a trusted ally , Ali Treki , a visa to take over the renegade mission , the State Department stalled .
Eventually , the senior Libyan diplomat defected himself .

The Trump administration is barring Iran’s top diplomat from entering the United States this week to address the United Nations Security Council about the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top military official in Baghdad, violating the terms of a 1947 headquarters agreement requiring Washington to permit foreign officials into the country to conduct U.N. business.
The Trump administration is barring Iran’s top diplomat from entering the United States this week to address the United Nations Security Council about the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top military official in Baghdad, violating the terms of a 1947 headquarters agreement requiring Washington to permit foreign officials into the country to conduct U.N. business.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif requested a visa on Dec. 20 to enter the United States to attend a Jan. 9 Security Council meeting on the importance of upholding the U.N. Charter, according to Alireza Miryousefi, a spokesman for the Iranian mission to the United Nations. The request, according to Miryousefi, was made one day after the council meeting was announced.
The Thursday meeting was to provide Tehran’s top diplomat with his first opportunity to directly address the world community since U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the Jan. 3 drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, a top Iraqi militia leader, among others.
The Iranian government was awaiting word on the visa Monday when a Trump administration official phoned U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to inform him that the United States would not allow Zarif into the country, according to the Washington-based diplomatic source.
“Last night, we were informed by the UN that based on the information it received from the US, FM Zarif’s visa to address the Security Council will not be issued,” Miryousefi told Foreign Policy by email. But he said Iran has “not received any communication about it from the US mission.”
“The US should abide by the 1947 Host agreement between the U.S. and U.N. that states: ‘When visas are required … they shall be granted without charge and as promptly as possible,’” he added.
Trump’s national security advisor, Robert O’Brien, suggested that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had made the decision to block Zarif’s entry into the United States. “I don’t think Secretary Pompeo thought that this was the right time for Mr. Zarif to come to the United States,” he said.
Pompeo declined to say whether he had barred Zarif’s entry into the United States, telling reporters in Washington that “we don’t comment on visa matters.”
But he insisted that the United States “will always comply with our obligations under the U.N. requirements and the Headquarters Agreement, and we will do so in this particular instance and more broadly every day.”
It remained unclear what legal basis Pompeo had for blocking Zarif’s visit, or whether the department’s legal department had produced an opinion indicating such a move was consistent with U.S. treaty obligations.
Zarif suggested that Pompeo may have dodged the legal issue by claiming there was insufficient time to process his request. Pompeo, he said, informed the U.N. chief Monday that the State Department “did not have time to issue a visa,” according to a report by the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA, which was cited by Agence France-Presse. “The secretary-general responded by saying that it is Iran’s right to take part in this session.”
The move comes as the United States and Iran engaged in tit-for-tat recriminations over the killing of Suleimani. Trump tweeted over the weekend that if Iran retaliates for Suleimani’s death, it will face U.S. attacks on 52 targets—the number of hostages held by Iran in 1979. “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have … targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD,” he said. “The USA wants no more threats!”
Tehran, meanwhile, announced Sunday it was ending its commitment to limit enrichment of uranium as part of its 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump pulled out of in 2018 and then followed up by reimposing tough sanctions on Iran.
But even before the current crisis, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in recent months had sought to restrict the ability of Zarif—a skilled debater who has studied in the United States and has extensive contacts with American journalists—to make his case to the American public during previous visits to the United States.
In July, the United States restricted his movement to a few blocks in Manhattan and Queens, preventing Zarif from making his regular visits to TV studios, universities, and think tanks. Pompeo defended the decision, noting that American diplomats lack freedom to travel in Iran.
The United States broke off diplomatic relations with Iran after the revolution. Iran is permitted to maintain a diplomatic outpost in midtown Manhattan to conduct U.N. business.
On the eve of the U.N. General Assembly debate in September 2019, Pompeo hinted that he might bar the Iranian delegation, led by President Hassan Rouhani and Zarif, from entering the United States, saying that Iran was responsible for carrying out an earlier drone and missile strike on two critical Saudi Arabian oil installations.
“The actions that the Iranian regime took violated the U.N. Charter,” Pompeo said at the time. “If you’re connected to a foreign terrorist organization, it seems to me it would be a reasonable thing to think about whether they ought to be prevented to attend a meeting which is about peace.”
But U.N. legal experts question whether Pompeo has the legal authority to bar the Iranians. And the United States relented and granted the Iranians visas at the time.
“Any foreign minister is entitled to address the Security Council at any time and the United States is obligated to provide access to the U.N. headquarters district,” said Larry Johnson, a former U.N. assistant secretary-general. Under the terms of the U.S. agreement with the United Nations, “they are absolutely obligated to let him in.
Johnson, who currently serves as an adjunct professor at Columbia University Law School, noted that the U.S. Congress, however, passed legislation in August 1947, the so-called Public Law 80-357, that granted the U.S. government the authority to bar foreign individuals invited by the United Nations to attend meetings at its New York City headquarters if they are deemed to pose a threat to U.S. national security. But Johnson said the U.S. law would require the individual be “expected to commit some act against the U.S. national security interest while here in the United States.”
A spokesperson for the U.N. secretary-general also declined comment.
It is not the first time, however, that the United States has prevented a foreign adversary from entering the country to attend a U.N. gathering.
In 1988, the Reagan administration barred the Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat from addressing the U.N. General Assembly on the grounds that he posed a threat to U.S. security. At the time, Patricia M. Byrne, the U.S. representative in the host country committee, said the United States “reserves to us … the right to bar the entry of those who represent a threat to our security.”
In response, the U.N. General Assembly traveled to Geneva to hear Arafat’s speech.
When the late Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi, facing a diplomatic rebellion at his country’s U.N. mission in March 2011, tried to send a trusted ally, Ali Treki, a visa to take over the renegade mission, the State Department stalled. Eventually, the senior Libyan diplomat defected himself.
Update, Jan. 7, 2020: This story has been updated to reflect statements by U.S. and Iranian officials confirming the U.S. decision not to grant a visa for the Iranian foreign minister to attend a U.N. Security Council meeting this week.


foreignpolicy--2020-01-06--Killing Suleimani Has United Iranians Like Never Before

Killing Suleimani Has United Iranians Like Never Before Grief and anger seized Iranians after the U.S. killing of Gen. Qassem Suleimani last Friday .
Enormous numbers of people took to the streets in cities across the country to commemorate him .
It was a passionate outcry in favor of a figure whom American media described as “ the world ’ s No .
1 bad guy.
” But while Suleimani was a bogeyman for the United States , within Iran he was seen as both a heroic figure and politically far more neutral than he has sometimes been painted .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hard-liners , avoiding domestic political fights and allowing others to project onto him their own visions of Iran ’ s future .
The Western media helped create the vision of Suleimani as an Iranian hero .
To be sure , he was already known to some degree as a successful commander during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s .
According to two sources , in 1998 he was supposed to be named as the commander of Iran ’ s police force , but his appointment was obstructed by hard-liners who wanted one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Instead , he became the chief commander of the Quds Force , which oversaw and implemented Iran ’ s goals and ambitions in the Middle East .
But at the time , it wasn ’ t the powerful force it is today .
In fact , monitoring and protecting Iran ’ s interests in Iraq was in the hands of other brigades , while Tehran ’ s goals in Syria and Lebanon were advanced by a number of individuals .
Suleimani gradually succeeded in widening the Quds Force ’ s scope of responsibility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei .
But it was the Western media profiles of Suleimani that made him really famous among ordinary people .
They were frequently translated and published in Iran , both online and in the papers , beginning with Dexter Filkins ’ s New Yorker profile of Suleimani in 2013 .
With the threat of the Islamic State looming in Syria , Suleimani was seen as a protective figure by the public , which was terrified of the brutally anti-Shiite Islamic State .
The Iranian media rapidly picked up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government , resulting in more information on him being leaked .
At the same time as Iranians were fearfully consuming graphic Islamic State videos of beheadings , Iranian media reports quoting security officials or Western media about how Suleimani was striving to bring down the empire of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi were highly popular .
Videos showing Suleimani on the front lines of the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria went viral .
A previously largely unknown commander became a symbol of courage and nationalism and a heroic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the line to protect the country .
His popularity surged drastically , placing him in 2015 and 2016 on a par with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif , also extremely popular , who reached a nuclear deal with the West .
Suleimani ’ s lack of interest in entering domestic political fights was a gift for hard-liners and conservatives , as they could portray him as their supporter .
But , despite the conservative figure he was painted as , much of the public believed Suleimani was a moderate .
He was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a two-time president and a leader of moderates and reformists who was particularly hated by hard-liners and military conservatives .
In the months and years following the 2009 presidential election , Suleimani preserved his personal ties and relationships with Rafsanjani , who was under heavy pressure from hard-liners for siding with Mir-Hossein Mousavi , the leader of the Green Movement , whose protests rocked Iran .
To the shock of many , Suleimani was among the few senior figures who paid a visit to Rafsanjani ’ s family after his death in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relationship with reformist Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri and Zarif , who held a joint meeting with the general almost every Tuesday .
In 2019 , following Zarif ’ s resignation after being sidelined from a meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Tehran , he successfully convinced Zarif to return to the job in personal conversations and even paid a visit to his house .
He also reportedly railed against the state TV channel , managed by hard-liners , for airing a series portraying Zarif as a weak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
During the nuclear talks in 2013-2015 , when Rouhani and Zarif were under fire from hard-liners and conservatives for negotiating with the P5+1 , not a single public position was taken by Suleimani against the approach of the incumbent government .
Suleimani also rejected the hard-liners and conservatives ’ calls for his nomination in the presidential election while they were desperate to find a candidate who could beat the relatively moderate Rouhani in 2017 .
Amid all these calls , he called himself a “ soldier of the revolution , ” rejecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate .
He was certainly highly electable .
According to a 2019 University of Maryland survey , 82 percent of Iranians held a positive view of Suleimani and 59 percent a highly positive view—far exceeding any other Iranian figure .
But that popularity continued , in part , exactly because he avoided entering domestic politics and abusing his reputation .
Thanks to this neutrality and his concentration on , as the public saw it , protecting Iranian borders and interests , Iranians saw him as a patriot guarding the nation , not a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ millions of people have poured onto the streets of Tehran to commemorate him , including many who oppose the Islamic Republic in other circumstances .
This was not just limited to the public ; notable figures including the 2009 opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi , who has been under house arrest for a decade ; the great Iranian novelist Mahmoud Dowlatabadi ; the former political prisoner Abdollah Momeni ; the actor Navid Mohammadzadeh ; and the prominent London-based journalist Masoud Behnoud expressed their sympathies over the death of Suleimani .
Most of them have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over many issues , including the deaths of hundreds of people in recent protests across Iran , but they differentiate between Suleimani and others .
Some Americans have recognized this .
In the BBC documentary Shadow Commander : Iran ’ s Military Mastermind , Gen. Stanley McChrystal , the special operations chief during George W. Bush ’ s presidency , says , “ I don ’ t think we should view him as an evil person .
I think we should view him just like I believe in my country .
I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Suleimani ’ s heroic image makes his death much more costly for the United States .
If a high-ranking military commander whom nobody liked had been killed , things would have been different .
Instead , an Iranian government weakened by recent protests has been revived following the assassination of Suleimani .
A formerly divided people is now standing firmly behind a government it was fiercely protesting weeks ago .

Grief and anger seized Iranians after the U.S. killing of Gen. Qassem Suleimani last Friday. Enormous numbers of people took to the streets in cities across the country to commemorate him. It was a passionate outcry in favor of a figure whom American media described as “the world’s No. 1 bad guy.”
Grief and anger seized Iranians after the U.S. killing of Gen. Qassem Suleimani last Friday. Enormous numbers of people took to the streets in cities across the country to commemorate him. It was a passionate outcry in favor of a figure whom American media described as “the world’s No. 1 bad guy.”
But while Suleimani was a bogeyman for the United States, within Iran he was seen as both a heroic figure and politically far more neutral than he has sometimes been painted. He walked a careful line between moderates and hard-liners, avoiding domestic political fights and allowing others to project onto him their own visions of Iran’s future.
The Western media helped create the vision of Suleimani as an Iranian hero. To be sure, he was already known to some degree as a successful commander during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. According to two sources, in 1998 he was supposed to be named as the commander of Iran’s police force, but his appointment was obstructed by hard-liners who wanted one of their own in his place. Instead, he became the chief commander of the Quds Force, which oversaw and implemented Iran’s goals and ambitions in the Middle East. But at the time, it wasn’t the powerful force it is today. In fact, monitoring and protecting Iran’s interests in Iraq was in the hands of other brigades, while Tehran’s goals in Syria and Lebanon were advanced by a number of individuals. Suleimani gradually succeeded in widening the Quds Force’s scope of responsibility while gaining the full trust and support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But it was the Western media profiles of Suleimani that made him really famous among ordinary people. They were frequently translated and published in Iran, both online and in the papers, beginning with Dexter Filkins’s New Yorker profile of Suleimani in 2013. With the threat of the Islamic State looming in Syria, Suleimani was seen as a protective figure by the public, which was terrified of the brutally anti-Shiite Islamic State. The Iranian media rapidly picked up on his popularity, as did the government, resulting in more information on him being leaked.
At the same time as Iranians were fearfully consuming graphic Islamic State videos of beheadings, Iranian media reports quoting security officials or Western media about how Suleimani was striving to bring down the empire of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi were highly popular. Videos showing Suleimani on the front lines of the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria went viral. A previously largely unknown commander became a symbol of courage and nationalism and a heroic figure who had put his neck on the line to protect the country. His popularity surged drastically, placing him in 2015 and 2016 on a par with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, also extremely popular, who reached a nuclear deal with the West.
Suleimani’s lack of interest in entering domestic political fights was a gift for hard-liners and conservatives, as they could portray him as their supporter. But, despite the conservative figure he was painted as, much of the public believed Suleimani was a moderate. He was a longtime supporter of Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a two-time president and a leader of moderates and reformists who was particularly hated by hard-liners and military conservatives. In the months and years following the 2009 presidential election, Suleimani preserved his personal ties and relationships with Rafsanjani, who was under heavy pressure from hard-liners for siding with Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the leader of the Green Movement, whose protests rocked Iran. To the shock of many, Suleimani was among the few senior figures who paid a visit to Rafsanjani’s family after his death in 2017.
Suleimani also preserved a strong relationship with reformist Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri and Zarif, who held a joint meeting with the general almost every Tuesday. In 2019, following Zarif’s resignation after being sidelined from a meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Tehran, he successfully convinced Zarif to return to the job in personal conversations and even paid a visit to his house. He also reportedly railed against the state TV channel, managed by hard-liners, for airing a series portraying Zarif as a weak person in his relationship with the West.
During the nuclear talks in 2013-2015, when Rouhani and Zarif were under fire from hard-liners and conservatives for negotiating with the P5+1, not a single public position was taken by Suleimani against the approach of the incumbent government.
Suleimani also rejected the hard-liners and conservatives’ calls for his nomination in the presidential election while they were desperate to find a candidate who could beat the relatively moderate Rouhani in 2017. Amid all these calls, he called himself a “soldier of the revolution,” rejecting conservative plans to run him as a candidate. He was certainly highly electable. According to a 2019 University of Maryland survey, 82 percent of Iranians held a positive view of Suleimani and 59 percent a highly positive view—far exceeding any other Iranian figure. But that popularity continued, in part, exactly because he avoided entering domestic politics and abusing his reputation.
Thanks to this neutrality and his concentration on, as the public saw it, protecting Iranian borders and interests, Iranians saw him as a patriot guarding the nation, not a political figure. That’s why millions of people have poured onto the streets of Tehran to commemorate him, including many who oppose the Islamic Republic in other circumstances. This was not just limited to the public; notable figures including the 2009 opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, who has been under house arrest for a decade; the great Iranian novelist Mahmoud Dowlatabadi; the former political prisoner Abdollah Momeni; the actor Navid Mohammadzadeh; and the prominent London-based journalist Masoud Behnoud expressed their sympathies over the death of Suleimani. Most of them have been seriously critical of the political system over many issues, including the deaths of hundreds of people in recent protests across Iran, but they differentiate between Suleimani and others.
Some Americans have recognized this. In the BBC documentary Shadow Commander: Iran’s Military Mastermind, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the special operations chief during George W. Bush’s presidency, says, “I don’t think we should view him as an evil person. I think we should view him just like I believe in my country. I think Qassem Suleimani believes in his country.”
Suleimani’s heroic image makes his death much more costly for the United States. If a high-ranking military commander whom nobody liked had been killed, things would have been different. Instead, an Iranian government weakened by recent protests has been revived following the assassination of Suleimani. A formerly divided people is now standing firmly behind a government it was fiercely protesting weeks ago.