insidescience--2020-03-31--Disgust Evolved To Protect Us From Disease. Is It Working?

Disgust Evolved To Protect Us From Disease .
Is It Working ?
During this modern coronavirus pandemic , our ancient instincts for avoiding disease may misfire .
( Inside Science ) -- Imagine putting your hand in a pile of poop .
It stinks and squishes .
What do you do next ?
Most likely , you 'll scrub that hand with plenty of soap -- and you do n't need public health officials or a germ theory of disease to tell you that 's the right thing to do .
But when you touch the handrail on an escalator @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that you could be picking up coronavirus germs .
Humans have instincts that have evolved over millions of years to steer them away from infectious diseases .
In some ways , these psychological adaptations -- collectively dubbed `` the behavioral immune system '' -- are helping us fight the COVID-19 pandemic .
In other ways , they 're failing us .
And some experts warn that if we 're not careful , our pandemic-heightened instincts could turn us into more bigoted , less compassionate people .
For most of human history , infectious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ else , said Joshua Ackerman , a social psychologist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor .
The need to defeat viruses , bacteria and other parasites has shaped well-known elements of the immune system such as antibodies and white blood cells .
But the traditional immune system can only respond once a parasite is inside our bodies .
By that time , the invader may already have caused damage , and to destroy it , the body must fight a messy and expensive war .
When possible , it 's better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first place .
So evolution has crafted a parallel immune system in our minds , and at its core is disgust .
That `` ew '' feeling is part of what motivated our ancestors to avoid likely sources of infection such as feces , vomit and rotting food .
`` We do n't even need to visually detect these things .
They 're some of the most aversive smells that we can experience , '' said Joshua Tybur , an evolutionary psychologist at Vrije University Amsterdam .
While it 's hard to know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we do , it seems clear that our behavioral immune system has origins older than humanity .
Jane Goodall observed chimpanzees shunning other chimps that had polio .
Bonobos , sheep , horses and kangaroos all avoid food that has feces on it .
Caribbean spiny lobsters are normally highly social , but they avoid sharing dens with other lobsters that are sick .
In some ways , a person with no sense of disgust might face similar handicaps to someone who ca n't feel pain , said Tybur .
There are conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and they often lead to serious health consequences as people accumulate injuries and infections .
`` We often take for granted how kind of naturally and intuitively we move ourselves away from reliable pathogen risks even without thinking , 'Oh , there might be a pathogen in there , ' '' said Tybur .
Why hand-washing and social distancing are hard Now , that ancient psychological system is confronting a modern threat : a pandemic that travels on airplanes and sweeps through cities that are home to millions .
Governments are encouraging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where there 's less possibility of encountering the virus .
When people do go out , they 're supposed to avoid touching their faces , wash their hands frequently , and keep their distance from others .
But people are struggling to comply .
Part of the problem may be that for most of human history , people lived in small hunter-gatherer bands of a few dozen people .
Our ancestors would never have encountered things that thousands of people touched in the same day , said Tybur .
We have n't yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and without that disgust reflex , it 's easy to forget .
The story is more complicated when it comes to direct contact with other people .
Humans already have an instinct for social distancing , noted Tybur .
For contrast , think of dogs .
`` When they see another dog , they will often run over and go mouth-to-mouth contact , they 'll go mouth-to-ass contact , with a complete stranger , '' said Tybur .
`` For humans that would be unthinkable . ''
Humans like to keep a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the size of that buffer depends on the relationship .
Between sexual partners , it 's essentially zero ; with strangers , it is much larger .
The more intimate a relationship , the more comfortable people are with things like hugging and drinking from the same glass .
According to frameworks developed by Tybur as well as Debra Lieberman and colleagues at the University of Miami in Florida , people 's brains calibrate their levels of disgust based on the `` social value '' they place on another person .
People subconsciously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have sex with someone , what kind of friendship and support that person can offer , and whether they are genetically related .
At the same time , they evaluate how likely the person is to give them a disease .
For example , if you encounter a stranger who smells bad or has bloody sores on their face , you will probably feel some level of disgust , but that reaction will be tamped down if it 's your own child .
And you may be fine with sitting next to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unless you found them extremely sexy , you 'd likely recoil at the idea of sticking your tongue in their mouth .
Now , people are being told to increase the buffer between themselves and others past where they feel it should be , said Tybur .
He speculates that greeting rituals such as hugs , handshakes and cheek kisses may have developed in part because they demonstrate how highly we value people .
`` When we shake someone 's hand or when we give someone a hug , we might be advertising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to us that we 're willing to take that pathogen risk , '' he said .
If that 's true , it 's no wonder that social distancing is hard .
Talk show hosts may mock alternative greeting practices like touching elbows or feet ( behavior changes that , for many , have gone from seeming overly cautious to grossly inadequate in the past few weeks ) .
But to Lieberman , it makes perfect sense why people would want to bump elbows .
It 's to signal how much they care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ straws in order to kind of figure out 'how do I show people this value , ' '' she said .
Do n't let disgust make you mean So if our sense of disgust is n't doing what we need it to , can we deliberately manipulate it to help us through this crisis ?
Perhaps , said Lieberman -- at least when it comes to hand-washing and disinfecting surfaces .
A 2009 study found that when posters and educational videos about hand sanitation included disgusting images such as a poop sandwich , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their hands .
In the last few weeks , news reports and public service announcements have been full of pictures that make the COVID-19 virus look `` pretty , '' noted Lieberman .
Icky images might make more of an impression .
But , she warned , officials should be cautious about using disgust to encourage social distancing , as that would involve painting other people as disgusting .
`` That 's potentially dangerous because disgust has a nefarious relationship with morality , '' she said .
Many studies have shown links between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as xenophobia , discrimination and willingness to trust others .
For example , one study by Lene Aarøe at Aarhus University in Denmark found that people who are more sensitive to disgust tend to have lower levels of `` generalized social trust , '' a measure of how much you believe others will look out for your best interests and avoid deliberately harming you .
People who have low social trust also tend to be less willing to do things , like recycling , that benefit society as a whole .
People who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support immigration , especially when the immigrants are from different races and cultures .
Several studies have suggested that when people 's behavioral immune systems are triggered by images or articles related to infectious disease , they become more biased against groups including the elderly , the obese , foreigners and the disabled .
Such effects are modest and not always consistent , and researchers interpret them in a variety of ways .
Nevertheless , it 's enough to convince some experts that manipulating disgust could be playing with fire .
Renata Schiavo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mailman School of Public Health in New York , does n't support using disgust in any public health messaging , even to promote hand-washing .
The research on disgust in public health campaigns has mostly focused on hand-washing after people use the bathroom or before eating , she noted .
It 's not clear what effect such methods would have in a pandemic , when people must wash their hands far more often and in other circumstances .
And given that this crisis is already inspiring fear and bigotry , Schiavo views disgust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This virus is not Chinese .
It 's not European .
It 's not American .
But there have been a number of populations that are unfortunately experiencing an increase in discrimination , '' she said .
`` While I know the intentions of using disgust are good , I do n't know if we know enough about how to [ address ] people 's emotions and biases . ''
Even without deliberate interventions , the coronavirus crisis is probably ramping up our disease-avoidance instincts , said Anastasia Makhanova , a social psychologist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Much of Makhanova 's research involves measuring how people 's attitudes and bodies change when they read articles about disease threats , but that approach is impossible while the pandemic rages .
`` Right now everyone is thinking about pathogen threats .
So I ca n't engage in the experimental manipulation of how freaked out people are about getting sick , '' she said .
On the one hand , activating everyone 's disease-avoidance instincts could help prevent the spread of the virus .
Indeed , according to preliminary findings from data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March , people with stronger behavioral immune systems may be more likely to abide by recommendations for hand-washing and social distancing .
But we should also be aware that our heightened instincts could have harmful side effects , according to Aarøe , Makhanova and other experts .
For example , those instincts could contribute to discrimination against people of Asian descent .
The instincts and biases our species has evolved do n't mean we are doomed to behave badly , said Makhanova .
People can correct for their biases if they are aware @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think that just because something 's biological , it means we ca n't change it .
But that 's not true , '' she said .
`` We have a prefrontal cortex .
We have self-control . ''
Editor 's note ( 11:45 am , April 1 , 2020 ) : In order to clarify the meaning of one of the quotations from Renata Schiavo , we have slightly modified a sentence , replacing the word “ control ” with “ address .
”

During this modern coronavirus pandemic, our ancient instincts for avoiding disease may misfire.
Nala Rogers, Staff Writer
(Inside Science) -- Imagine putting your hand in a pile of poop. It stinks and squishes. What do you do next?
Most likely, you'll scrub that hand with plenty of soap -- and you don't need public health officials or a germ theory of disease to tell you that's the right thing to do. But when you touch the handrail on an escalator, it's much harder to remember that you could be picking up coronavirus germs.
Humans have instincts that have evolved over millions of years to steer them away from infectious diseases. In some ways, these psychological adaptations -- collectively dubbed "the behavioral immune system" -- are helping us fight the COVID-19 pandemic. In other ways, they're failing us. And some experts warn that if we're not careful, our pandemic-heightened instincts could turn us into more bigoted, less compassionate people.
Why we feel disgust
For most of human history, infectious diseases probably killed more people than anything else, said Joshua Ackerman, a social psychologist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. The need to defeat viruses, bacteria and other parasites has shaped well-known elements of the immune system such as antibodies and white blood cells.
But the traditional immune system can only respond once a parasite is inside our bodies. By that time, the invader may already have caused damage, and to destroy it, the body must fight a messy and expensive war.
When possible, it's better to avoid catching a disease in the first place. So evolution has crafted a parallel immune system in our minds, and at its core is disgust. That "ew" feeling is part of what motivated our ancestors to avoid likely sources of infection such as feces, vomit and rotting food.
"We don't even need to visually detect these things. They're some of the most aversive smells that we can experience," said Joshua Tybur, an evolutionary psychologist at Vrije University Amsterdam.
Image Caribbean spiny lobsters are highly social, but they avoid sharing dens with other lobsters that are sick. Media credits Credits: Neil DeMaster via Flickr Media rights Rights: CC BY-ND 2.0
While it's hard to know whether other species experience disgust the way we do, it seems clear that our behavioral immune system has origins older than humanity. Jane Goodall observed chimpanzees shunning other chimps that had polio. Bonobos, sheep, horses and kangaroos all avoid food that has feces on it. Caribbean spiny lobsters are normally highly social, but they avoid sharing dens with other lobsters that are sick.
In some ways, a person with no sense of disgust might face similar handicaps to someone who can't feel pain, said Tybur. There are conditions that make people unable to feel pain, and they often lead to serious health consequences as people accumulate injuries and infections.
"We often take for granted how kind of naturally and intuitively we move ourselves away from reliable pathogen risks even without thinking, 'Oh, there might be a pathogen in there,'" said Tybur.
Why hand-washing and social distancing are hard
Now, that ancient psychological system is confronting a modern threat: a pandemic that travels on airplanes and sweeps through cities that are home to millions. Governments are encouraging or mandating that people stay home, where there's less possibility of encountering the virus. When people do go out, they're supposed to avoid touching their faces, wash their hands frequently, and keep their distance from others. But people are struggling to comply.
Part of the problem may be that for most of human history, people lived in small hunter-gatherer bands of a few dozen people. Our ancestors would never have encountered things that thousands of people touched in the same day, said Tybur. We haven't yet evolved instincts that such things are dangerous, and without that disgust reflex, it's easy to forget.
The story is more complicated when it comes to direct contact with other people. Humans already have an instinct for social distancing, noted Tybur. For contrast, think of dogs.
"When they see another dog, they will often run over and go mouth-to-mouth contact, they'll go mouth-to-ass contact, with a complete stranger," said Tybur. "For humans that would be unthinkable."
Humans like to keep a buffer between themselves and others, and the size of that buffer depends on the relationship. Between sexual partners, it's essentially zero; with strangers, it is much larger. The more intimate a relationship, the more comfortable people are with things like hugging and drinking from the same glass.
According to frameworks developed by Tybur as well as Debra Lieberman and colleagues at the University of Miami in Florida, people's brains calibrate their levels of disgust based on the "social value" they place on another person. People subconsciously compute things like how much they want to have sex with someone, what kind of friendship and support that person can offer, and whether they are genetically related. At the same time, they evaluate how likely the person is to give them a disease.
For example, if you encounter a stranger who smells bad or has bloody sores on their face, you will probably feel some level of disgust, but that reaction will be tamped down if it's your own child. And you may be fine with sitting next to a stranger on the bus, but unless you found them extremely sexy, you'd likely recoil at the idea of sticking your tongue in their mouth.
Now, people are being told to increase the buffer between themselves and others past where they feel it should be, said Tybur. He speculates that greeting rituals such as hugs, handshakes and cheek kisses may have developed in part because they demonstrate how highly we value people.
"When we shake someone's hand or when we give someone a hug, we might be advertising to that person that they're important enough to us that we're willing to take that pathogen risk," he said.
If that's true, it's no wonder that social distancing is hard. Talk show hosts may mock alternative greeting practices like touching elbows or feet (behavior changes that, for many, have gone from seeming overly cautious to grossly inadequate in the past few weeks). But to Lieberman, it makes perfect sense why people would want to bump elbows. It's to signal how much they care.
"They're just grabbing for straws in order to kind of figure out 'how do I show people this value,'" she said.
Don't let disgust make you mean
So if our sense of disgust isn't doing what we need it to, can we deliberately manipulate it to help us through this crisis? Perhaps, said Lieberman -- at least when it comes to hand-washing and disinfecting surfaces. A 2009 study found that when posters and educational videos about hand sanitation included disgusting images such as a poop sandwich, people were more likely to actually wash their hands.
In the last few weeks, news reports and public service announcements have been full of pictures that make the COVID-19 virus look "pretty," noted Lieberman. Icky images might make more of an impression. But, she warned, officials should be cautious about using disgust to encourage social distancing, as that would involve painting other people as disgusting.
"That's potentially dangerous because disgust has a nefarious relationship with morality," she said.
Many studies have shown links between the behavioral immune system and phenomena such as xenophobia, discrimination and willingness to trust others. For example, one study by Lene Aarøe at Aarhus University in Denmark found that people who are more sensitive to disgust tend to have lower levels of "generalized social trust," a measure of how much you believe others will look out for your best interests and avoid deliberately harming you. People who have low social trust also tend to be less willing to do things, like recycling, that benefit society as a whole.
People who view disease-related images are less likely to support immigration, especially when the immigrants are from different races and cultures. Several studies have suggested that when people's behavioral immune systems are triggered by images or articles related to infectious disease, they become more biased against groups including the elderly, the obese, foreigners and the disabled.
Such effects are modest and not always consistent, and researchers interpret them in a variety of ways. Nevertheless, it's enough to convince some experts that manipulating disgust could be playing with fire.
Renata Schiavo, a senior lecturer at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health in New York, doesn't support using disgust in any public health messaging, even to promote hand-washing. The research on disgust in public health campaigns has mostly focused on hand-washing after people use the bathroom or before eating, she noted. It's not clear what effect such methods would have in a pandemic, when people must wash their hands far more often and in other circumstances. And given that this crisis is already inspiring fear and bigotry, Schiavo views disgust as too dangerous a tool.
"This virus is not Chinese. It's not European. It's not American. But there have been a number of populations that are unfortunately experiencing an increase in discrimination," she said. "While I know the intentions of using disgust are good, I don't know if we know enough about how to [address] people's emotions and biases."
Even without deliberate interventions, the coronavirus crisis is probably ramping up our disease-avoidance instincts, said Anastasia Makhanova, a social psychologist at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Much of Makhanova's research involves measuring how people's attitudes and bodies change when they read articles about disease threats, but that approach is impossible while the pandemic rages.
"Right now everyone is thinking about pathogen threats. So I can't engage in the experimental manipulation of how freaked out people are about getting sick," she said.
On the one hand, activating everyone's disease-avoidance instincts could help prevent the spread of the virus. Indeed, according to preliminary findings from data Makhanova gathered in the second week of March, people with stronger behavioral immune systems may be more likely to abide by recommendations for hand-washing and social distancing.
But we should also be aware that our heightened instincts could have harmful side effects, according to Aarøe, Makhanova and other experts. For example, those instincts could contribute to discrimination against people of Asian descent.
The instincts and biases our species has evolved don't mean we are doomed to behave badly, said Makhanova. People can correct for their biases if they are aware of them.
"[People] think that just because something's biological, it means we can't change it. But that's not true," she said. "We have a prefrontal cortex. We have self-control."
Editor's note (11:45 am, April 1, 2020): In order to clarify the meaning of one of the quotations from Renata Schiavo, we have slightly modified a sentence, replacing the word “control” with “address.”


insidescience--2020-07-05--Eruptions and Emissions Can Rapidly Alter the Ocean's Ability to Absorb Carbon

Eruptions and Emissions Can Rapidly Alter the Ocean 's Ability to Absorb Carbon Climate scientists propose new explanation for the rapid changes to the ocean carbon sink in the 1990s .
( Inside Science ) -- As humans pump more and more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere , the ocean is hard at work absorbing it , buying us more time to stave off the worst effects of climate change .
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century , the ocean has absorbed roughly 39 % of all human emissions .
This phenomenon , called the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ driven by the difference between carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and in the ocean .
New research suggests that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can strengthen or weaken the entire ocean carbon sink on very short time scales .
Larger differences in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and in the ocean pump more carbon dioxide into the ocean 's surface layer where it is dissolved and stored .
And as the rate of carbon dioxide emissions increases , the ocean carbon sink strengthens in response , absorbing more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scientists have long recognized this trend over the past few decades .
But at smaller scales , the relationship is much more complicated .
Climate scientists know the sink strengthens and weakens over decades or even year to year but they have n't yet been able to pin down the exact mechanisms behind its variability .
Data from the 1990s has had scientists ' heads spinning for years .
The climate data from this decade , on average , displayed a global weakening of the ocean carbon sink .
But when researchers zoom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ notice some erratic behavior .
The early '90s showed an increasingly stronger carbon sink .
But from 1993 to 2000 the ocean carbon sink significantly weakened .
Previously , changing ocean circulation patterns and winds had been proposed as the main forces at play .
But a new study published in AGU Advances by a team of climate scientists led by Galen McKinley , an oceanographer at Columbia University in New York , points to additional factors .
The researchers place the majority of the blame on two other forces that emerged during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines , and the slowing growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide .
The team combined a variety of data and models to isolate the most significant forces .
The scientists suggest that the eruption caused widespread cooling of the ocean , thus increasing the ocean 's ability to dissolve carbon in its surface layer .
This effect lasted for the first couple of years after the eruption until it faded away , leaving an atmosphere that had accumulated less carbon dioxide from earlier in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred partly as a result of a slowdown in the growth of fossil fuel usage during the late 1980s and before the Soviet Union dissolved .
But the most significant influence likely stemmed from a stronger `` land carbon sink '' in the 1980s and 1990s .
Vegetation and soil probably absorbed more carbon than usual for reasons that are still poorly understood by scientists .
This , combined with the higher amounts of dissolved carbon dioxide in the ocean from the eruption , lowered the difference between the amounts of carbon dioxide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to weaken the global ocean carbon sink for the rest of the decade .
The researchers believe the swiftness of that response may have important implications for future efforts to slow climate change .
Since 2001 , the ocean carbon sink has continued on its pre-1990s path , getting stronger every year as rates of carbon dioxide growth in the atmosphere climb .
But fluctuations in this growth rate are inevitable , so it is important to know how quickly the ocean will respond .
`` The changes in the growth rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and immediate impacts on the ocean carbon sink , '' said study co-author Amanda Fay .
`` As we as a global community reduce our emissions , the ocean carbon sink will respond by slowing as well . ''
This may make the future of climate change mitigation look more difficult , but it also must be reckoned with as the world attempts to roll back the rapid devastation currently occurring from two important consequences of greenhouse gases , ocean acidification and warming .
Scientists have long known that variations in atmospheric CO2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CO2 from air to sea .
But the full scale of the relationship as described by McKinley and the team forces scientists to reconsider the relative importance of all the factors that influence the ocean carbon sink .
`` What surprises me is the magnitude of their modeled impact , '' said Nicolas Gruber , a climate scientist at ETH Zurich who was not involved in the study .
`` We obviously now need to go back and check again . ''
In the next few years , researchers will seek more data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflect the true variability of the ocean carbon sink .
This back-and-forth exchange is essential for policymakers to make the most informed decisions on climate change mitigation .
The ocean carbon sink will likely weaken in response to decreasing carbon dioxide emissions .
But unpredictable events such as volcanic eruptions -- or global pandemics -- can change carbon dioxide levels and have rapid impacts on the ocean carbon sink .
And as climate models continue to improve , the true sensitivity of the balance in the air-sea system will become clearer .
`` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system has these very long time scales , and we are perturbing it on very short time scales , '' said McKinley .

Climate scientists propose new explanation for the rapid changes to the ocean carbon sink in the 1990s.
Christian Fogerty, Contributor
(Inside Science) -- As humans pump more and more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the ocean is hard at work absorbing it, buying us more time to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century, the ocean has absorbed roughly 39% of all human emissions. This phenomenon, called the "ocean carbon sink," is driven by the difference between carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and in the ocean.
New research suggests that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can strengthen or weaken the entire ocean carbon sink on very short time scales.
Larger differences in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and in the ocean pump more carbon dioxide into the ocean's surface layer where it is dissolved and stored. And as the rate of carbon dioxide emissions increases, the ocean carbon sink strengthens in response, absorbing more and more of the greenhouse gas. Scientists have long recognized this trend over the past few decades. But at smaller scales, the relationship is much more complicated.
A big wave in the research community
Climate scientists know the sink strengthens and weakens over decades or even year to year but they haven't yet been able to pin down the exact mechanisms behind its variability. Data from the 1990s has had scientists' heads spinning for years. The climate data from this decade, on average, displayed a global weakening of the ocean carbon sink. But when researchers zoom in on the year-by-year data, they notice some erratic behavior. The early '90s showed an increasingly stronger carbon sink. But from 1993 to 2000 the ocean carbon sink significantly weakened.
Previously, changing ocean circulation patterns and winds had been proposed as the main forces at play. But a new study published in AGU Advances by a team of climate scientists led by Galen McKinley, an oceanographer at Columbia University in New York, points to additional factors. The researchers place the majority of the blame on two other forces that emerged during the early years of the decade: The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the slowing growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The team combined a variety of data and models to isolate the most significant forces.
The scientists suggest that the eruption caused widespread cooling of the ocean, thus increasing the ocean's ability to dissolve carbon in its surface layer. This effect lasted for the first couple of years after the eruption until it faded away, leaving an atmosphere that had accumulated less carbon dioxide from earlier in the decade. These lower carbon dioxide levels occurred partly as a result of a slowdown in the growth of fossil fuel usage during the late 1980s and before the Soviet Union dissolved. But the most significant influence likely stemmed from a stronger "land carbon sink" in the 1980s and 1990s. Vegetation and soil probably absorbed more carbon than usual for reasons that are still poorly understood by scientists.
This, combined with the higher amounts of dissolved carbon dioxide in the ocean from the eruption, lowered the difference between the amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and in the ocean enough to weaken the global ocean carbon sink for the rest of the decade.
The researchers believe the swiftness of that response may have important implications for future efforts to slow climate change.
Reckoning with the sink's ally
Since 2001, the ocean carbon sink has continued on its pre-1990s path, getting stronger every year as rates of carbon dioxide growth in the atmosphere climb. But fluctuations in this growth rate are inevitable, so it is important to know how quickly the ocean will respond.
"The changes in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide will have real and immediate impacts on the ocean carbon sink," said study co-author Amanda Fay. "As we as a global community reduce our emissions, the ocean carbon sink will respond by slowing as well."
This may make the future of climate change mitigation look more difficult, but it also must be reckoned with as the world attempts to roll back the rapid devastation currently occurring from two important consequences of greenhouse gases, ocean acidification and warming.
Scientists have long known that variations in atmospheric CO2 levels cause changes in the movement of CO2 from air to sea. But the full scale of the relationship as described by McKinley and the team forces scientists to reconsider the relative importance of all the factors that influence the ocean carbon sink.
"What surprises me is the magnitude of their modeled impact," said Nicolas Gruber, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich who was not involved in the study. "We obviously now need to go back and check again."
In the next few years, researchers will seek more data and refine models as they work to reflect the true variability of the ocean carbon sink. This back-and-forth exchange is essential for policymakers to make the most informed decisions on climate change mitigation.
The ocean carbon sink will likely weaken in response to decreasing carbon dioxide emissions. But unpredictable events such as volcanic eruptions -- or global pandemics -- can change carbon dioxide levels and have rapid impacts on the ocean carbon sink. And as climate models continue to improve, the true sensitivity of the balance in the air-sea system will become clearer.
"People have to understand that the earth system has these very long time scales, and we are perturbing it on very short time scales," said McKinley.


insidescience--2020-06-19--Halos of Clay Can Preserve Billion-Year-Old Microbes

New discovery could help scientists unearth more ancient microbial fossils and shed light on some big questions about early life on Earth .
The Burgess Shale , in the Canadian Rocky Mountains , contains impressively well preserved fossils that are more than 500 million years old .
Finding fossils of earlier life has been challenging .
( Inside Science ) -- Putting together the history of life on Earth has a major stumbling block : Prior to about 540 million years ago , most life was squishy and microbial , which meant it rarely fossilized .
This major blind spot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ancient life at a key point in Earth ’ s evolutionary history , and even more difficult to potentially find evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars .
But a recent study of kaolinite , an aluminum-rich clay , gives researchers some major hints about where to start looking .
The smallest needle in the biggest haystack In 1859 , Charles Darwin was at a loss .
Plenty of fossils of multi-celled and large animals had been found , but there seemed to be no fossils of those animals ’ more basic evolutionary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however , contended that life must have existed for eons before then .
“ To the question why we do not find records of these vast primordial periods , I can give no satisfactory answer , ” he wrote in “ On the Origin of Species.
” We now know the answer to his question : Fossilization of an organism with no shell or skeleton is incredibly rare .
Before about 540 million years ago , when the age known as the Cambrian began and multicellular life rapidly diversified , the only living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , bacteria and algae .
They lacked the hard components that would have allowed their bodies to be more easily fossilized .
“ When we try to reconstruct the study of life billions of years ago , we find only pieces of the puzzle , ” said Emmanuelle Javaux , a geobiologist at the University of Liege in Belgium .
“ It ’ s important to understand what they really represent.
” A new study by researchers at Yale University in New Haven , Connecticut and the University of Oxford in the U.K. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were created .
The analysis showed “ halos ” of a specific type of clay , kaolinite , around microbial fossils , suggesting that kaolinite is particularly good at preserving these traces of life .
Researchers had long suspected clay could be an important material for preserving soft-bodied organisms .
Ancient medical texts up to 5,000 years old mention that clays tend to aid in healing wounds , and scientists have found that clays with metallic ions -- like kaolinite with aluminum -- can work as antibacterial agents .
This antibacterial property of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ microbial life from being consumed by bacteria , allowing it to be fossilized instead of decaying .
Information about how soft-bodied organisms are fossilized can show how the early fossil record might be biased toward certain time periods or types of environments .
“ The point of this study was to understand some of the environmental conditions which are conducive to fossilization , ” said Ross Anderson , a paleobiologist at Oxford and lead author of the study .
“ Because if we know that , we 've got a much better idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Finding microscopic , billion-year-old traces of life is , as one might expect , akin to “ looking for a very tiny needle in a very , very big haystack , '' said Anderson .
Any hints about likely places to find these fossils shrinks the haystack significantly .
A well-known blind spot of paleontology is that it can only know about life that was preserved .
If the only fossils from a certain era were found in tropical climates , that doesn ’ t necessarily mean all life on Earth lived in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could mean that the tropics had the best conditions for fossilization .
Anderson ’ s study suggests pre-Cambrian fossils may be biased toward environments that were rich in kaolinite , a discovery that helps put these fossils into context and potentially make them easier for paleontologists to find .
“ We paleontologists like recognizable patterns , ” said Elena Naimark , a paleontologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow , Russia who was not involved in the study .
“ Patterns mean that we understand things correctly , they mean that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our precious fossils and how and why they are there .
This is how we decipher the past.
” A key mystery for paleontologists to decipher is why the transition between simple microscopic life and complex macroscopic life , the lack of fossil evidence for which flummoxed Darwin , occurred .
This event is called the Cambrian explosion : the crucial turning point in Earth ’ s evolutionary history .
And because evidence of life before that transition is so difficult to find , researchers don ’ t know why it happened .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels were low to nonexistent , and a rise in the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere allowed animals to grow bigger and more diverse .
There are theories based in developmental genetics as well , suggesting that minor genetic modifications to an animal ’ s development may have been able to cause very large changes when the animal grew to adulthood .
Still more theories look at ecological explanations , such as changes to the food chain or “ arms races ” between predators and prey .
“ If we want an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an accurate timescale , ” Anderson said .
“ We don ’ t have a very good one at the moment , because it ’ s such a spotty fossil record .
It ’ s difficult to know when exactly things happened and in what sequence of events , or if our fossils are biased in some way.
” Finding billion-year-old microbes is particularly relevant to an upcoming Mars rover mission , Perseverance , which will be looking for evidence of ancient life on Mars .
The rover can only take so many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where to look raises the chances of a fruitful discovery .
“ I think this is our best chance to find some trace of life on Mars , ” said Javeaux , who is involved with a similar Mars rover project at the European Space Agency .
That rover is set to launch in 2022 .
“ This study will help us to target the best potential locations to find life .
”

New discovery could help scientists unearth more ancient microbial fossils and shed light on some big questions about early life on Earth.
The Burgess Shale, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, contains impressively well preserved fossils that are more than 500 million years old. Finding fossils of earlier life has been challenging.
Meredith Fore, Contributor
(Inside Science) -- Putting together the history of life on Earth has a major stumbling block: Prior to about 540 million years ago, most life was squishy and microbial, which meant it rarely fossilized. This major blind spot makes it difficult for researchers to study ancient life at a key point in Earth’s evolutionary history, and even more difficult to potentially find evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars. But a recent study of kaolinite, an aluminum-rich clay, gives researchers some major hints about where to start looking.
The smallest needle in the biggest haystack
In 1859, Charles Darwin was at a loss. Plenty of fossils of multi-celled and large animals had been found, but there seemed to be no fossils of those animals’ more basic evolutionary ancestors. His theory of evolution, however, contended that life must have existed for eons before then. “To the question why we do not find records of these vast primordial periods, I can give no satisfactory answer,” he wrote in “On the Origin of Species.”
We now know the answer to his question: Fossilization of an organism with no shell or skeleton is incredibly rare. Before about 540 million years ago, when the age known as the Cambrian began and multicellular life rapidly diversified, the only living things on Earth were small -- microbes, bacteria and algae. They lacked the hard components that would have allowed their bodies to be more easily fossilized.
“When we try to reconstruct the study of life billions of years ago, we find only pieces of the puzzle,” said Emmanuelle Javaux, a geobiologist at the University of Liege in Belgium. “It’s important to understand what they really represent.”
A new study by researchers at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut and the University of Oxford in the U.K. analyzed pre-Cambrian fossils to understand how they were created. The analysis showed “halos” of a specific type of clay, kaolinite, around microbial fossils, suggesting that kaolinite is particularly good at preserving these traces of life.
Researchers had long suspected clay could be an important material for preserving soft-bodied organisms. Ancient medical texts up to 5,000 years old mention that clays tend to aid in healing wounds, and scientists have found that clays with metallic ions -- like kaolinite with aluminum -- can work as antibacterial agents. This antibacterial property of kaolinite is likely what kept the ancient microbial life from being consumed by bacteria, allowing it to be fossilized instead of decaying.
Information about how soft-bodied organisms are fossilized can show how the early fossil record might be biased toward certain time periods or types of environments. “The point of this study was to understand some of the environmental conditions which are conducive to fossilization,” said Ross Anderson, a paleobiologist at Oxford and lead author of the study. “Because if we know that, we've got a much better idea of how to go find them.”
Finding microscopic, billion-year-old traces of life is, as one might expect, akin to “looking for a very tiny needle in a very, very big haystack," said Anderson. Any hints about likely places to find these fossils shrinks the haystack significantly.
A well-known blind spot of paleontology is that it can only know about life that was preserved. If the only fossils from a certain era were found in tropical climates, that doesn’t necessarily mean all life on Earth lived in the tropics at that time; it could mean that the tropics had the best conditions for fossilization. Anderson’s study suggests pre-Cambrian fossils may be biased toward environments that were rich in kaolinite, a discovery that helps put these fossils into context and potentially make them easier for paleontologists to find.
“We paleontologists like recognizable patterns,” said Elena Naimark, a paleontologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, Russia who was not involved in the study. “Patterns mean that we understand things correctly, they mean that we know where we should search for our precious fossils and how and why they are there. This is how we decipher the past.”
An explosive mystery of life
A key mystery for paleontologists to decipher is why the transition between simple microscopic life and complex macroscopic life, the lack of fossil evidence for which flummoxed Darwin, occurred. This event is called the Cambrian explosion: the crucial turning point in Earth’s evolutionary history. And because evidence of life before that transition is so difficult to find, researchers don’t know why it happened.
A popular idea is that pre-Cambrian oxygen levels were low to nonexistent, and a rise in the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere allowed animals to grow bigger and more diverse. There are theories based in developmental genetics as well, suggesting that minor genetic modifications to an animal’s development may have been able to cause very large changes when the animal grew to adulthood. Still more theories look at ecological explanations, such as changes to the food chain or “arms races” between predators and prey.
“If we want an answer to this question, we need an accurate timescale,” Anderson said. “We don’t have a very good one at the moment, because it’s such a spotty fossil record. It’s difficult to know when exactly things happened and in what sequence of events, or if our fossils are biased in some way.”
Finding billion-year-old microbes is particularly relevant to an upcoming Mars rover mission, Perseverance, which will be looking for evidence of ancient life on Mars. The rover can only take so many samples, so having some guidance about where to look raises the chances of a fruitful discovery.
“I think this is our best chance to find some trace of life on Mars,” said Javeaux, who is involved with a similar Mars rover project at the European Space Agency. That rover is set to launch in 2022. “This study will help us to target the best potential locations to find life.”


insidescience--2020-04-30--In an April of Human Isolation, Photos From the Animal Kingdom

In an April of Human Isolation , Photos From the Animal Kingdom Across the world , humans are n't the @ @ @ @ @ upheavals .
( Inside Science ) -- Pandemics affect the animal kingdom as well as @ @ @ @ @ the human world hunkers down for yet more days of isolation , wildlife can inspire @ @ @ @ @ are as much a part of the environment as they are .
In Belgium , @ @ @ @ @ may assist scientists researching ways to fight COVID-19 .
In western Kenya , a new @ @ @ @ @ launch a collection of research articles for scientific advancement .
Finally , monkeys in Nepal @ @ @ @ @ closely humans and animals interact .
This month , we take a look at the @ @ @ @ @ .

Across the world, humans aren't the only ones affected by global upheavals.
Abigail Malate, Staff Illustrator
(Inside Science) -- Pandemics affect the animal kingdom as well as people. While most of the human world hunkers down for yet more days of isolation, wildlife can inspire us to contemplate how humans are as much a part of the environment as they are. In Belgium, a llama’s antibodies may assist scientists researching ways to fight COVID-19. In western Kenya, a new species of bat helps to launch a collection of research articles for scientific advancement. Finally, monkeys in Nepal and Uganda show just how closely humans and animals interact. This month, we take a look at the state of global animal affairs.


insidescience--2020-04-30--Global Air Pollution Drop, Electronic Skin and Brain Machines

( Inside Science ) -- In this monthly science recap , Alistair Jennings from Inside Science sums up some of the most interesting recent science topics .
This month , scientists are seeing a massive drop in global air pollution .
Satellite maps show the concentration of nitrogen dioxide before and after regions issued orders for residents to stay at home .
So , shutting down travel and other activity around the world isn ’ t just slowing the spread of the virus -- it ’ s also giving our locked-down lungs a welcome break from poisonous air .
Also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concept of a new kind of electronic skin : It ’ s a soft polymer patch that can sense various chemicals in sweat , like acidity and glucose level , as well skin temperature , then transmits that information via Bluetooth to a computer .
What ’ s so exciting is it ’ s powered by our sweat .
And finally , scientists recorded the neural responses of monkeys listening to some unpleasant noise tones .
They used a wafer-thin sheet of electrodes , a sheet smaller than a grain of sand , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one year ago .
Long-term recording from the brain like this is very hard to do -- not only is the brain extremely sensitive to foreign objects , but it ’ s also a deeply unforgiving environment for electronics : The ions , currents and chemicals swirling around in there tend to corrode and destroy most sensors .

A month’s worth of cool science stories, summed up
Alistair Jennings, Contributor
(Inside Science) -- In this monthly science recap, Alistair Jennings from Inside Science sums up some of the most interesting recent science topics. This month, scientists are seeing a massive drop in global air pollution. Satellite maps show the concentration of nitrogen dioxide before and after regions issued orders for residents to stay at home. So, shutting down travel and other activity around the world isn’t just slowing the spread of the virus -- it’s also giving our locked-down lungs a welcome break from poisonous air.
Also, this month brought a proof of concept of a new kind of electronic skin: It’s a soft polymer patch that can sense various chemicals in sweat, like acidity and glucose level, as well skin temperature, then transmits that information via Bluetooth to a computer. What’s so exciting is it’s powered by our sweat.
And finally, scientists recorded the neural responses of monkeys listening to some unpleasant noise tones. They used a wafer-thin sheet of electrodes, a sheet smaller than a grain of sand, implanted on the brain’s surface one year ago. Long-term recording from the brain like this is very hard to do -- not only is the brain extremely sensitive to foreign objects, but it’s also a deeply unforgiving environment for electronics: The ions, currents and chemicals swirling around in there tend to corrode and destroy most sensors.
References:
NASA air pollution images
Covid & Air pollution 1
Covid & Air pollution 2
American lung association state of the air report
Electronic skin
Contact lenses
Brain Machine interface


insidescience--2020-04-30--Deep Ocean Currents Carry Plastic Microfibers Into Seafloor Hot Spots

Researchers discover hot spot off the coast of Italy with up to 1.9 million pieces of plastic per square meter .
Researchers gathered and tested sediment samples , like the one shown here , from the Mediterranean off the coast of Italy .
( Inside Science ) -- The deep waters of the Tyrrhenian Sea off the western Italian coast hold centuries ' worth of shipwrecks and lost cargo from past civilizations .
But new research shows that recent civilization has left a heavy burden on parts of the seafloor .
Researchers found an area of Mediterranean seabed that contains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one of the highest concentrations of microplastics per square meter ever reported .
`` That 's an incredibly high number , obviously , '' said Ian Kane , the lead author of a study published today in the journal Science .
Researchers who study the circulation of plastic have suggested that what we see on the surface of the water -- including the giant garbage patches drifting in various parts of the ocean – represent only about 1 % of the plastic that 's actually in the oceans .
The other 99 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , stored ( temporarily ) inside the creatures that ingest it , or even in snow .
Now Kane and his co-authors have found some of the plastic on the seafloor , stored in oceanic drifts .
Kane , a sedimentologist at the University of Manchester , studies the way that mineral grains move around the earth .
He thought that plastic particles likely moved in much the same way , and that plastic falling to the seabed might not necessarily sit directly underneath the massive floating garbage patches around the world .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the plastics are going to be distributed on the seafloor according to the currents which transport them , '' he said .
To test this theory , they looked at an area of the Mediterranean where they had detailed maps of the seafloor , ocean current models , and information of the strength of currents at different points .
They then took samples of the seabed between the Italian island of Sardinia and the mainland .
They extracted the plastics from the seabed samples and found they were concentrated between depths of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place where the currents interact most strongly with the seafloor .
In these areas , seafloor features known as ocean drifts , which are basically piles of materials miles in length and hundreds of feet high , similar to sand dunes or snow drifts , contained much larger proportions of microplastics than channels experiencing high currents , giving sediments less of a chance to settle .
Helge Niemann , a research leader at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and a professor for microbial and isotope biogeochemistry at the University of Utrecht @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study , calculated that you could fit about 100 million grains of sand measuring 0.1 millimeter in a square meter .
In other words , Kane and his team would have seen roughly one piece of plastic for every 50 grains of sand .
`` The study is interesting as it shows these bottom currents in the deep sea are important to the distribution of plastics , '' Niemann said .
`` One should not regard the ocean as a totally still basin . ''
Most of the plastic material Kane and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up of microfibers .
These can come from fishing nets or ropes , but Kane said that most of it was likely washed down from rivers after passing through wastewater treatment plants unequipped to filter the material out , given that the Mediterranean is a relatively enclosed sea fed by plastic-rich rivers from large population centers .
`` The numbers they get from this are difficult to translate to the entire ocean , '' Niemann said .
Many of the microfibers come from our own clothes .
Kane said that much of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or some other method in treatment if plants were to install such technology .
George Leonard , chief scientist with the Ocean Conservancy , an advocacy group based in Washington D.C. , said the tiny size of most of these plastic fragments shows that efforts to clean up plastic from the ocean after the fact would be nearly impossible when it comes to microfibers .
Kane said that microplastics are found in just about everything we eat and drink .
Clean microplastics may not present much of a problem .
But these particles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as DDT in the environment , which can have negative impacts on sea life .
`` There 's zero chance that we can go out and clean that pollution up , '' Leonard said , adding that most attention is focused on plastic bags or bottles floating around the ocean rather than these microfibers .
`` This really solidifies that the solution to ocean plastic pollution is n't in the ocean -- it 's on land . ''
The other challenge is that the same currents that bring these plastic particles to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , possibly making them biodiversity hot spots , the authors said .
`` It 's not good if the system is disturbed too much , because it takes a long time for things to grow there , '' Niemann said .

Researchers discover hot spot off the coast of Italy with up to 1.9 million pieces of plastic per square meter.
Researchers gathered and tested sediment samples, like the one shown here, from the Mediterranean off the coast of Italy.
Joshua Learn, Contributor
(Inside Science) -- The deep waters of the Tyrrhenian Sea off the western Italian coast hold centuries' worth of shipwrecks and lost cargo from past civilizations. But new research shows that recent civilization has left a heavy burden on parts of the seafloor.
Researchers found an area of Mediterranean seabed that contains about 1.9 million pieces per square meter, one of the highest concentrations of microplastics per square meter ever reported.
"That's an incredibly high number, obviously," said Ian Kane, the lead author of a study published today in the journal Science.
Researchers who study the circulation of plastic have suggested that what we see on the surface of the water -- including the giant garbage patches drifting in various parts of the ocean – represent only about 1% of the plastic that's actually in the oceans. The other 99% is likely found on the seafloor, stored (temporarily) inside the creatures that ingest it, or even in snow.
Now Kane and his co-authors have found some of the plastic on the seafloor, stored in oceanic drifts. Kane, a sedimentologist at the University of Manchester, studies the way that mineral grains move around the earth. He thought that plastic particles likely moved in much the same way, and that plastic falling to the seabed might not necessarily sit directly underneath the massive floating garbage patches around the world.
"It's quite intuitive to us that the plastics are going to be distributed on the seafloor according to the currents which transport them," he said.
To test this theory, they looked at an area of the Mediterranean where they had detailed maps of the seafloor, ocean current models, and information of the strength of currents at different points. They then took samples of the seabed between the Italian island of Sardinia and the mainland.
They extracted the plastics from the seabed samples and found they were concentrated between depths of 600 meters and 900 meters, a place where the currents interact most strongly with the seafloor. In these areas, seafloor features known as ocean drifts, which are basically piles of materials miles in length and hundreds of feet high, similar to sand dunes or snow drifts, contained much larger proportions of microplastics than channels experiencing high currents, giving sediments less of a chance to settle.
Helge Niemann, a research leader at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and a professor for microbial and isotope biogeochemistry at the University of Utrecht who was not involved in the recent study, calculated that you could fit about 100 million grains of sand measuring 0.1 millimeter in a square meter. In other words, Kane and his team would have seen roughly one piece of plastic for every 50 grains of sand.
"The study is interesting as it shows these bottom currents in the deep sea are important to the distribution of plastics," Niemann said. "One should not regard the ocean as a totally still basin."
Most of the plastic material Kane and his team found on the seafloor was made up of microfibers. These can come from fishing nets or ropes, but Kane said that most of it was likely washed down from rivers after passing through wastewater treatment plants unequipped to filter the material out, given that the Mediterranean is a relatively enclosed sea fed by plastic-rich rivers from large population centers.
"The numbers they get from this are difficult to translate to the entire ocean," Niemann said.
Many of the microfibers come from our own clothes. Kane said that much of this plastic could be filtered by using graphene or some other method in treatment if plants were to install such technology.
George Leonard, chief scientist with the Ocean Conservancy, an advocacy group based in Washington D.C., said the tiny size of most of these plastic fragments shows that efforts to clean up plastic from the ocean after the fact would be nearly impossible when it comes to microfibers.
Kane said that microplastics are found in just about everything we eat and drink. Clean microplastics may not present much of a problem. But these particles can collect heavy metals or other toxins such as DDT in the environment, which can have negative impacts on sea life.
"There's zero chance that we can go out and clean that pollution up," Leonard said, adding that most attention is focused on plastic bags or bottles floating around the ocean rather than these microfibers. "This really solidifies that the solution to ocean plastic pollution isn't in the ocean -- it's on land."
The other challenge is that the same currents that bring these plastic particles to the drifts also provide them with oxygen, possibly making them biodiversity hot spots, the authors said.
"It's not good if the system is disturbed too much, because it takes a long time for things to grow there," Niemann said.


insidescience--2020-04-22--Heavy Rains May Make Volcanoes Rumble

Heavy Rains May Make Volcanoes Rumble

A new study suggests a correlation between volcanic activity and heavy rainfall , but other volcanologists are skeptical .
The lava lake at the summit of Kilauea volcano dropped had significantly by May 6 , 2018 when this picture was taken , and about three weeks after very heavy rains fell on the Hawaiian Islands .
( Inside Science ) -- Despite its lush tropical flora and pristine beaches , Hawaii would not have been a great place to be two years ago around this time .
On April 14-15 , 2018 , some 49 inches of rain deluged the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ setting a rainfall record for the entire United States .
About two and a half weeks later , on Hawaii , the archipelago 's Big Island , the volcano Kilauea awakened .
The volcano 's summit crater , called Halemaumau , collapsed and its lava lake descended into the volcano 's bowels .
Then Kilauea 's eastern flank erupted in a series of glaring red gashes in the Earth , accompanied by ash clouds and spurting lava fountains .
The eruption remade the island 's southeastern edge and destroyed 700 homes by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the record rainfall that preceded the eruption is related to the historic event — and may have even caused it to begin .
Other researchers are skeptical .
The study argues that as rains lashed Hawaii , water would have surged into the island 's porous bedrock , weakening the rock 's existing fissures and imperfections .
This would make the rock easier to break , triggering the eruption .
Jamie I. Farquharson and Falk Amelung of the University of Miami suggest in a new paper that precisely this scenario led to Kilauea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true , it suggests extreme rainfall events , which are predicted to increase in the future because of human-caused climate changes , could lead to increased volcanism in a few places on Earth .
The study is published today in the journal Nature .
`` If there are regions of the globe that are going to experience more extreme rainfall , it 's important to understand if there are other natural phenomena that are going to be affected by that , '' Farquharson said .
More stories about volcanic eruptions from Inside Science @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hotspot , where a plume of magma flows from Earth 's deep interior independent of the motions of the tectonic plates .
The plumbing systems of the islands ' several volcanoes allow lava to make its way from within and reach Earth 's surface , forming new rock .
In Hawaiian mythology , the volcano goddess Pele lives at Kilauea , which is the youngest and most active volcano in the islands .
Kilauea 's magma is stored a few miles below the surface , and several factors can combine to drive it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs a way out .
This happens as magma stresses the rocks and exploits their weaknesses , explains Michael Manga , a geophysicist at the University of California , Berkeley who wrote a commentary on the new result for the same journal .
Pressure could build up over time , as rising molten rock creates pressure and forces Earth 's crust upward to a breaking point .
Or the magma chamber walls could be weakened externally , like by the tidal forces of the ocean , which result from the pull of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rainfall is a new , previously unrecognized source of stress acting on Kilauea 's internal structure .
They created a model to estimate the pressure changes in the rock in the weeks leading up to the eruption , which began May 3 , 2018 .
Their model , which also includes factors such as the density of Kilauea 's rock and the vertical motion of water through the subsurface , showed a dramatic pressure increase deep within the Earth .
They say the pressure change occurred while the rain was falling and percolating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the heavy rainfall led to the eventual rock failure that enabled the eruption .
Kilauea has long been one of the world 's most dangerous volcanoes .
An active vent called Puu Oo on the shield volcano 's East Rift Zone is one of Earth 's best locations for studying eruptions .
U.S. Geological Survey scientists keep a close watch on the volcano , and any odd stirrings are carefully tracked using GPS satellites and other sensors .
Some of these sensors noticed changes in the days leading up to the 2018 eruption @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agency issued two public warnings in April , based on changes in the lava lake and a slight uplift in the land .
Farquharson argues these changes were slight compared to past eruptions , however .
He also said the activity does not explain the eruption 's genesis .
`` Maybe the magma chamber was pressurizing at that time , but we do n't think it was the dominant factor '' in setting off the eruption , he said .
Several geophysicists were skeptical of the results and called for more hard data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a factor worth studying .
`` You can say that perhaps the rainfall had some sort of influence on the way the eruption played out ; I think that would be a safer claim , '' said Jess Phoenix , a geophysicist in California who previously worked at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory .
`` But I do n't think you can support that the rainfall triggered the 2018 eruption . ''
At Kilauea , the volcano 's deep guts are bracketed by structures called intrusions , which act like walls along the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ structures could prevent water from percolating through the subsurface , according to USGS scientists .
Farquharson and Amelung did not address the volcano 's physical structure in their analysis , they said .
Among the factors that can cause a volcano to erupt , rainwater is less influential than pressure buildup within the magma system , said Michael Poland , a USGS geophysicist who leads the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory and is a former staff scientist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory .
He said instruments recorded pressurization of the volcano just before the heaviest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the eruption .
`` It 's conceivable that rainfall can provide a little bit of a kick , which could cause a system that was near the edge to go fully over the edge , '' Poland said .
`` The issue here is that I do n't think there is convincing evidence that this is what happened at Kilauea in 2018 . ''
Further studies are necessary , he and others said , including comparative research at other island chains , like the Canary Islands or the Galapagos .
But if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trigger volcanic eruptions , and rainfall is expected to increase in intensity under human-caused climate change , then a warming world may produce more volcanic eruptions .
`` The implication is that when it rains really hard , a volcano may erupt , and maybe we should evacuate , '' Manga said .
`` So I think there are some conclusions where the burden of proof should be much higher . ''
Farquharson said he is already working on analysis of different volcano systems , looking for similar patterns that might suggest some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that analysis identifies certain types of volcanoes that are more likely to experience increases in stress after rainfall , `` it 's possible we could see an uptick in activity , '' he said .
`` But it 's hard to speculate about that in our single-case study , so a big pinch of salt should accompany that . ''
`` I would love to blame human-caused climate change on every bad thing that ever happened , because I really want people to pay attention , '' she said ruefully .
`` But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the claim that climate change is going to play into volcanic eruptions .
There are so many factors that go into that inciting event . ''
Do n't sound for Pele right away the next time it storms , in other words .

A new study suggests a correlation between volcanic activity and heavy rainfall, but other volcanologists are skeptical.
Rebecca Boyle, Contributor
(Inside Science) -- Despite its lush tropical flora and pristine beaches, Hawaii would not have been a great place to be two years ago around this time. On April 14-15, 2018, some 49 inches of rain deluged the island of Kauai in 24 hours, setting a rainfall record for the entire United States. About two and a half weeks later, on Hawaii, the archipelago's Big Island, the volcano Kilauea awakened.
The volcano's summit crater, called Halemaumau, collapsed and its lava lake descended into the volcano's bowels. Then Kilauea's eastern flank erupted in a series of glaring red gashes in the Earth, accompanied by ash clouds and spurting lava fountains. The eruption remade the island's southeastern edge and destroyed 700 homes by the fall. Now a new study claims the record rainfall that preceded the eruption is related to the historic event — and may have even caused it to begin. Other researchers are skeptical.
The study argues that as rains lashed Hawaii, water would have surged into the island's porous bedrock, weakening the rock's existing fissures and imperfections. This would make the rock easier to break, triggering the eruption. Jamie I. Farquharson and Falk Amelung of the University of Miami suggest in a new paper that precisely this scenario led to Kilauea's historic eruption. If that's true, it suggests extreme rainfall events, which are predicted to increase in the future because of human-caused climate changes, could lead to increased volcanism in a few places on Earth. The study is published today in the journal Nature.
"If there are regions of the globe that are going to experience more extreme rainfall, it's important to understand if there are other natural phenomena that are going to be affected by that," Farquharson said.
More stories about volcanic eruptions from Inside Science
Hawaii’s archipelago sits above a hotspot, where a plume of magma flows from Earth's deep interior independent of the motions of the tectonic plates. The plumbing systems of the islands' several volcanoes allow lava to make its way from within and reach Earth's surface, forming new rock. In Hawaiian mythology, the volcano goddess Pele lives at Kilauea, which is the youngest and most active volcano in the islands.
Kilauea's magma is stored a few miles below the surface, and several factors can combine to drive it skyward. When it rises, it needs a way out. This happens as magma stresses the rocks and exploits their weaknesses, explains Michael Manga, a geophysicist at the University of California, Berkeley who wrote a commentary on the new result for the same journal.
Pressure could build up over time, as rising molten rock creates pressure and forces Earth's crust upward to a breaking point. Or the magma chamber walls could be weakened externally, like by the tidal forces of the ocean, which result from the pull of the moon.
Farquharson and Amelung argue that rainfall is a new, previously unrecognized source of stress acting on Kilauea's internal structure. They created a model to estimate the pressure changes in the rock in the weeks leading up to the eruption, which began May 3, 2018. Their model, which also includes factors such as the density of Kilauea's rock and the vertical motion of water through the subsurface, showed a dramatic pressure increase deep within the Earth. They say the pressure change occurred while the rain was falling and percolating into the rock, and conclude that the heavy rainfall led to the eventual rock failure that enabled the eruption.
Kilauea has long been one of the world's most dangerous volcanoes. An active vent called Puu Oo on the shield volcano's East Rift Zone is one of Earth's best locations for studying eruptions. U.S. Geological Survey scientists keep a close watch on the volcano, and any odd stirrings are carefully tracked using GPS satellites and other sensors. Some of these sensors noticed changes in the days leading up to the 2018 eruption, according to USGS scientists. The agency issued two public warnings in April, based on changes in the lava lake and a slight uplift in the land. Farquharson argues these changes were slight compared to past eruptions, however. He also said the activity does not explain the eruption's genesis.
"Maybe the magma chamber was pressurizing at that time, but we don't think it was the dominant factor" in setting off the eruption, he said.
Several geophysicists were skeptical of the results and called for more hard data, even as they said rainfall is a factor worth studying.
"You can say that perhaps the rainfall had some sort of influence on the way the eruption played out; I think that would be a safer claim," said Jess Phoenix, a geophysicist in California who previously worked at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. "But I don't think you can support that the rainfall triggered the 2018 eruption."
At Kilauea, the volcano's deep guts are bracketed by structures called intrusions, which act like walls along the volcano's East Rift Zone. These structures could prevent water from percolating through the subsurface, according to USGS scientists. Farquharson and Amelung did not address the volcano's physical structure in their analysis, they said.
Among the factors that can cause a volcano to erupt, rainwater is less influential than pressure buildup within the magma system, said Michael Poland, a USGS geophysicist who leads the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory and is a former staff scientist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. He said instruments recorded pressurization of the volcano just before the heaviest rains began, and almost three weeks before the eruption.
"It's conceivable that rainfall can provide a little bit of a kick, which could cause a system that was near the edge to go fully over the edge," Poland said. "The issue here is that I don't think there is convincing evidence that this is what happened at Kilauea in 2018."
Further studies are necessary, he and others said, including comparative research at other island chains, like the Canary Islands or the Galapagos. But if they find that intense rainfall really can trigger volcanic eruptions, and rainfall is expected to increase in intensity under human-caused climate change, then a warming world may produce more volcanic eruptions.
"The implication is that when it rains really hard, a volcano may erupt, and maybe we should evacuate," Manga said. "So I think there are some conclusions where the burden of proof should be much higher."
Farquharson said he is already working on analysis of different volcano systems, looking for similar patterns that might suggest some connection to the water cycle.
If that analysis identifies certain types of volcanoes that are more likely to experience increases in stress after rainfall, "it's possible we could see an uptick in activity," he said. "But it's hard to speculate about that in our single-case study, so a big pinch of salt should accompany that."
Phoenix was less circumspect.
"I would love to blame human-caused climate change on every bad thing that ever happened, because I really want people to pay attention," she said ruefully. "But I didn't see evidence to support the claim that climate change is going to play into volcanic eruptions. There are so many factors that go into that inciting event."
Don't sound for Pele right away the next time it storms, in other words.


insidescience--2020-03-18--National Monuments are More Boon than Bane to Local Economies

National Monuments are More Boon than Bane to Local Economies New research suggests that national monument designations have not harmed local economies , and in some ways they may have helped .
( Inside Science ) -- Since the 1906 Antiquities Act was passed , U.S. presidents have had the power to protect vast stretches of land with the stroke of a pen by designating them as national monuments .
Many such designations have faced backlash , often over concerns they would harm local economies .
New research suggests such fears may be unfounded .
The researchers focused on 14 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1990 and 2015 .
They estimated the economic effects of the monuments by comparing the regions within 25 kilometers of each monument to similar `` control '' regions located farther away .
In the control regions , researchers say the overall economic trends were likely similar prior to the designation of the monuments but were then relatively unaffected after designation .
The analysis suggested that monument designations increased the number of businesses near monuments by about 10 % and increased the number of jobs by about 8.5 % .
Some people have expressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs with lower-paying jobs , but the new study found that was n't true ; there was no effect on how much people earned .
When a president designates a national monument , existing leases for mining and fossil fuel extraction continue as before , but new leases are banned .
Grazing policies vary between monuments .
Such industries are often the focus of debates , since people assume they will suffer when a monument is designated .
But the new study found the monuments had so far had no effect on mining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industries .
That 's likely because the monuments in the study were n't very productive for extractive industries even before they were designated , said Margaret Walls , an economist at Resources for the Future , a nonpartisan nonprofit in Washington dedicated to analyzing economic questions about natural resource policy .
If a monument were designated on top of valuable oil reserves , she noted , the situation might be different .
Several other industries saw benefits , including health services , construction and hotels .
Walls and her colleagues published the findings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In December 2017 , President Donald Trump ordered two Utah monuments , Grand Staircase-Escalante and Bears Ears , reduced by 50 % and 85 % respectively .
The move immediately faced protests and legal challenges , and it is still playing out in court .
The new findings may help inform such debates , said Walls .
Still , she added , it 's worth remembering that national monuments serve other purposes besides creating jobs .
`` They have cultural , historic , prehistoric artifacts ; they have geologic resources .
There 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she said .
`` And if we think they 're something special , we should protect them . ''

New research suggests that national monument designations have not harmed local economies, and in some ways they may have helped.
Nala Rogers, Staff Writer
(Inside Science) -- Since the 1906 Antiquities Act was passed, U.S. presidents have had the power to protect vast stretches of land with the stroke of a pen by designating them as national monuments. Many such designations have faced backlash, often over concerns they would harm local economies. New research suggests such fears may be unfounded.
The researchers focused on 14 monuments established in the western U.S. between 1990 and 2015. They estimated the economic effects of the monuments by comparing the regions within 25 kilometers of each monument to similar "control" regions located farther away. In the control regions, researchers say the overall economic trends were likely similar prior to the designation of the monuments but were then relatively unaffected after designation.
The analysis suggested that monument designations increased the number of businesses near monuments by about 10% and increased the number of jobs by about 8.5%. Some people have expressed concern that national monuments would replace high-paying jobs with lower-paying jobs, but the new study found that wasn't true; there was no effect on how much people earned.
When a president designates a national monument, existing leases for mining and fossil fuel extraction continue as before, but new leases are banned. Grazing policies vary between monuments.
Such industries are often the focus of debates, since people assume they will suffer when a monument is designated. But the new study found the monuments had so far had no effect on mining, logging, grazing or fossil fuel industries. That's likely because the monuments in the study weren't very productive for extractive industries even before they were designated, said Margaret Walls, an economist at Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan nonprofit in Washington dedicated to analyzing economic questions about natural resource policy. If a monument were designated on top of valuable oil reserves, she noted, the situation might be different.
Several other industries saw benefits, including health services, construction and hotels. Walls and her colleagues published the findings today in the journal Science Advances.
In December 2017, President Donald Trump ordered two Utah monuments, Grand Staircase-Escalante and Bears Ears, reduced by 50% and 85% respectively. The move immediately faced protests and legal challenges, and it is still playing out in court.
The new findings may help inform such debates, said Walls. Still, she added, it's worth remembering that national monuments serve other purposes besides creating jobs.
"They have cultural, historic, prehistoric artifacts; they have geologic resources. There's something special about these places," she said. "And if we think they're something special, we should protect them."