vdare--2020-04-16--Patrick J. Buchanan: Will COVID-19 Retire the World's Policeman?

For declaring in March that the U.S. economy might be reopened by Easter , President Donald Trump was roundly mocked .
Yet , it appears his political instincts were correct .
He was more in tune with his country than were his critics .
By early Easter week , Gov .
Andrew Cuomo and the governors of six states in the New York-New Jersey region had formed a consortium to synchronize the opening of their economies .
California 's Gavin Newsom and the governors of Washington and Oregon had done the same .
The governors may disagree on the timing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but most agree with Trump .
America can not remain shut down for months without lasting damage to the livelihood and lives of millions of citizens who are about to be shoved into a new Great Depression .
However , something just jolted the gathering consensus over the need to reopen soon .
Tuesday and Wednesday , the U.S. set records for the numbers of fatalities from the virus .
Tuesday it was 2,364 dead , the following day 2,371 .
That put the national casualty total above 30,000 .
The U.S. did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Feb. 29 .
It took 38 days after that to reach 10,000 .
However , it took only nine days to vault from 10,000 fatalities to more than 30,000 .
The ominous implication : If this 2,300-dead-per-day figure is near the new normal , we would surpass the 61,000 fatalities projected for the duration of the pandemic—in two weeks !
Even if we reduce the Tuesday-Wednesday average daily death toll by over half , to 1,000 deaths a day , that would mean 44,000 more dead for a total of 75,000 by June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the flu ?
The coronavirus is more easily transmissible .
It is more savage in how it maims immune systems .
It is more lethal , killing far more of the infected than the regular flu , though we do not know exactly how much more lethal .
For we have no hard number of those who carry or have carried the virus asymptomatically .
Nor we do know whether having survived COVID-19 renders one immune to a new infection .
Since the medical experts are predicting a second wave of the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is no small matter .
And seeing what happened on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt , the coronavirus could have a major impact on U.S. global commitments .
Americans were already coming home from the Middle East , drawing down our 12,000 troops in Afghanistan after a deal with the Taliban , and moving our 5,000 troops in Iraq into fewer bases .
We have disengaged from the Saudi war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and are drawing down our forces in Syria .
In Libya 's civil war , it is Russians @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not Americans , who are the supporting actors .
American soft power is also in retreat from the world .
Some 10,000 Peace Corps volunteers have been brought home .
Scores of thousands of U.S. citizens have been repatriated by the State Department .
We have shut the door to Europe , China , the world .
What now becomes of the U.S. geostrategic `` pivot , '' the shift of planes , troops , ships and bases from the Middle and Near East to the Indo-Pacific theater to contain a rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
The Roosevelt has been ravaged by the coronavirus .
As of Tuesday , 589 cases of COVID-19 were reported from a crew of 4,800 .
Four thousand sailors in Guam are in various stages of a 14-day isolation period in hotels and spare rooms across the island .
But it is not just the Roosevelt .
Every U.S. warship—carriers , cruisers , frigates , destroyers , subs—has cramped quarters conducive to the spread of the coronavirus .
How many of these vessels will soon be doubling as hospital ships ?
The same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. Army and Marine barracks in South Korea , Japan , Australia and Okinawa .
There are allegations that the coronavirus did not originate in the Wuhan `` wet market '' where bats are sold for food but instead escaped through a horrible blunder in a Chinese bioweapons laboratory a few miles away .
Whatever the truth , the Wuhan virus appears to have become the most effective means of disabling U.S. hard and soft power that we have encountered in many a decade .
Of those 10,000 Peace Corp volunteers , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been repatriated home , how many of these `` soft power '' soldiers will be going back after they have been out of their host country for 18 months ?
Will this pandemic prove the decisive factor in America 's retreat from global hegemony ?
With the U.S. budget deficit for 2020 originally set at $ 1 trillion , now triple that , there is going to be a hard reckoning for the allocation of our diminished resources after the nation reopens .
And policing the planet is likely to be seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary candidate for discard .
Patrick J. Buchanan needs no introduction to VDARE.COM readers ; his books State of Emergency : The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America , and Suicide of a Superpower : Will America Survive to 2025 ?
are available from Amazon.com .
Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “ The Greatest Comeback : How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority .
His latest book , published May , 2018 , is “ Nixon ’ s White House Wars : The Battles That Made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forever.
” See Peter Brimelow ’ s review : “ Wheel And Fight ” —Pat Buchanan ’ s Nixon Book Provides Road Map For Trump .

For declaring in March that the U.S. economy might be reopened by Easter, President Donald Trump was roundly mocked.
Yet, it appears his political instincts were correct. He was more in tune with his country than were his critics.
By early Easter week, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the governors of six states in the New York-New Jersey region had formed a consortium to synchronize the opening of their economies. California's Gavin Newsom and the governors of Washington and Oregon had done the same.
The governors may disagree on the timing, May 1 or May 15, but most agree with Trump. America cannot remain shut down for months without lasting damage to the livelihood and lives of millions of citizens who are about to be shoved into a new Great Depression.
Twenty-two million Americans are now unemployed.
However, something just jolted the gathering consensus over the need to reopen soon. Tuesday and Wednesday, the U.S. set records for the numbers of fatalities from the virus. Tuesday it was 2,364 dead, the following day 2,371. That put the national casualty total above 30,000.
The U.S. did not record its first coronavirus fatality until Feb. 29. It took 38 days after that to reach 10,000. However, it took only nine days to vault from 10,000 fatalities to more than 30,000.
The ominous implication: If this 2,300-dead-per-day figure is near the new normal, we would surpass the 61,000 fatalities projected for the duration of the pandemic—in two weeks!
Even if we reduce the Tuesday-Wednesday average daily death toll by over half, to 1,000 deaths a day, that would mean 44,000 more dead for a total of 75,000 by June 1.
What makes COVID-19 worse than the flu?
The coronavirus is more easily transmissible. It is more savage in how it maims immune systems. It is more lethal, killing far more of the infected than the regular flu, though we do not know exactly how much more lethal. For we have no hard number of those who carry or have carried the virus asymptomatically.
Nor we do know whether having survived COVID-19 renders one immune to a new infection. Since the medical experts are predicting a second wave of the virus in late summer or fall, this is no small matter.
And seeing what happened on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt, the coronavirus could have a major impact on U.S. global commitments.
Americans were already coming home from the Middle East, drawing down our 12,000 troops in Afghanistan after a deal with the Taliban, and moving our 5,000 troops in Iraq into fewer bases.
We have disengaged from the Saudi war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and are drawing down our forces in Syria.
In Libya's civil war, it is Russians, Turks, Egyptians and Gulf Arabs, not Americans, who are the supporting actors.
American soft power is also in retreat from the world.
Some 10,000 Peace Corps volunteers have been brought home. Scores of thousands of U.S. citizens have been repatriated by the State Department. We have shut the door to Europe, China, the world.
What now becomes of the U.S. geostrategic "pivot," the shift of planes, troops, ships and bases from the Middle and Near East to the Indo-Pacific theater to contain a rising China?
And contain China with what?
The Roosevelt has been ravaged by the coronavirus. As of Tuesday, 589 cases of COVID-19 were reported from a crew of 4,800. Four thousand sailors in Guam are in various stages of a 14-day isolation period in hotels and spare rooms across the island.
But it is not just the Roosevelt. Every U.S. warship—carriers, cruisers, frigates, destroyers, subs—has cramped quarters conducive to the spread of the coronavirus.
How many of these vessels will soon be doubling as hospital ships?
The same question might also be asked of the U.S. Army and Marine barracks in South Korea, Japan, Australia and Okinawa.
There are allegations that the coronavirus did not originate in the Wuhan "wet market" where bats are sold for food but instead escaped through a horrible blunder in a Chinese bioweapons laboratory a few miles away.
Whatever the truth, the Wuhan virus appears to have become the most effective means of disabling U.S. hard and soft power that we have encountered in many a decade.
Of those 10,000 Peace Corp volunteers, and scores of thousands of other Americans who have been repatriated home, how many of these "soft power" soldiers will be going back after they have been out of their host country for 18 months?
Will this pandemic prove the decisive factor in America's retreat from global hegemony?
With the U.S. budget deficit for 2020 originally set at $1 trillion, now triple that, there is going to be a hard reckoning for the allocation of our diminished resources after the nation reopens.
And policing the planet is likely to be seen as yesterday's priority, and a primary candidate for discard.
COPYRIGHT 2020 CREATORS.COM
Patrick J. Buchanan needs no introduction to VDARE.COM readers; his books State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America, and Suicide of a Superpower: Will America Survive to 2025? are available from Amazon.com. Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “The Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority.
His latest book, published May, 2018, is “Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.”
See Peter Brimelow’s review: “Wheel And Fight”—Pat Buchanan’s Nixon Book Provides Road Map For Trump.


vdare--2020-04-16--This Day In VDARE.com History, 2019: A Reader Mourns Notre Dame...And France

Originally published here on this day last year , as Notre Dame burned .
While French investigators never established a cause for the fire , the idea that it might be a typical Muslim church arson is considered an `` alt-right '' conspiracy theory .
Rostopchin burned Moscow before the French could take it ; Chiang Kai-shek ’ s men did the same to Changsha to pre-empt a gain by Japanese troops .
However heart-rending their choices , these men knew better than to let the enemy enrich himself by plundering the national treasures ; better to start anew than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conquering army .
In the banlieux of Paris , Louis , Henri , and Jacques have flagged on the rosters of baby names .
The most common names include , among others , Mohamed , Ibrahim , and Ayoub .
Paris—arguably the crown jewel of Western man ’ s patrimony—looks set to be renamed Paribad in a few years ’ time , if its occupiers deign even to nod to the ancient tribe from which it draws its name .
Little of this can be news to a regular reader of VDARE.com .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ yesterday—during Holy Week , no less .
It stood the better part of a millennium—through plagues , revolutions , empires , and wars—suffering damage from time to time , but there it loomed ; a stern reminder of the animating , beating heart of our civilization—the Universal Church .
And so , as the videos came in and I watched that grand cathedral burn , a wry , mournful smile flickered across my face .
“ All of us will rebuild this cathedral together , ” announced His Excellency Emmanuel Macron .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I haven ’ t stretched his words .
He ’ s announcing a project that will go “ well beyond [ France ’ s ] own borders.
” He said , “ We will rebuild Notre-Dame , because that ’ s what the French expect ; because it is what our history merits ; because it is our fundamental destiny.
” And indeed , that ’ s how he , and so many others , view this building .
It ’ s an old structure that belongs to “ France ” ; and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ après lui , belongs to the world .
I can claim little piety—and much sin—but it takes precious little piety or virtue to know that this is a Christian church , and its demise is that of a Catholic monument to the glory of God .
However much or little meaning the Catholic Church might have to the reader , the Louvre didn ’ t burn on 15 April 2019—a cathedral did .
Perhaps the gargoyles looked down to the Dardanelles and recoiled at the fate of the Hagia Sofia as they pondered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst .
Or perhaps they didn ’ t need to look so far—just to the insipid teenagers taking selfies and profaning the holy ground on which Notre-Dame was built .
But perhaps they decided to preempt the indignities they sensed on the horizon .
The enemy had arrived , and they ’ d be damned if they surrendered Notre-Dame .
The only question that remains is , was the enemy the Arab hordes or France ’ s own effeminate , resigned sons ?
Whatever Emmanuel Macron manages to do with the remains of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s gone .
I won ’ t be visiting the One World monument he turns it into .
Apoptosis is a Greek word that , by origin , alludes to the autumn leaves—it describes a cell ’ s self-destruction to stop itself from poisoning the body it constitutes ; here we see apoptosis to deprive the enemy .
I ’ ll mourn Notre-Dame , but in point of fact , it ’ s been gone a long time now .
Speaking of the falling leaves apoptosis alludes to , some lyrics to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writes : The English version of this song is called `` Autumn Leaves '' .
The French version , above , is called `` Dead Leaves '' —more to the point .
See also '' Fairest Things Have Fleetest Endings '' —Jared Taylor 's review of Camp Of The Saints .

Originally published here on this day last year, as Notre Dame burned. While French investigators never established a cause for the fire, the idea that it might be a typical Muslim church arson is considered an "alt-right" conspiracy theory.
From: Calvin Leicester [Email him]
Rostopchin burned Moscow before the French could take it; Chiang Kai-shek’s men did the same to Changsha to pre-empt a gain by Japanese troops. However heart-rending their choices, these men knew better than to let the enemy enrich himself by plundering the national treasures; better to start anew than surrender their forbears’ bequests to a conquering army.
In the banlieux of Paris, Louis, Henri, and Jacques have flagged on the rosters of baby names. The most common names include, among others, Mohamed, Ibrahim, and Ayoub. Paris—arguably the crown jewel of Western man’s patrimony—looks set to be renamed Paribad in a few years’ time, if its occupiers deign even to nod to the ancient tribe from which it draws its name. Little of this can be news to a regular reader of VDARE.com.
I was shocked to see Notre-Dame burning yesterday—during Holy Week, no less. It stood the better part of a millennium—through plagues, revolutions, empires, and wars—suffering damage from time to time, but there it loomed; a stern reminder of the animating, beating heart of our civilization—the Universal Church. And so, as the videos came in and I watched that grand cathedral burn, a wry, mournful smile flickered across my face.
“All of us will rebuild this cathedral together,” announced His Excellency Emmanuel Macron. That’s my own translation, but I haven’t stretched his words. He’s announcing a project that will go “well beyond [France’s] own borders.” He said, “We will rebuild Notre-Dame, because that’s what the French expect; because it is what our history merits; because it is our fundamental destiny.”
And indeed, that’s how he, and so many others, view this building. It’s an old structure that belongs to “France”; and France, of course, d’après lui, belongs to the world. I can claim little piety—and much sin—but it takes precious little piety or virtue to know that this is a Christian church, and its demise is that of a Catholic monument to the glory of God. However much or little meaning the Catholic Church might have to the reader, the Louvre didn’t burn on 15 April 2019—a cathedral did.
Perhaps the gargoyles looked down to the Dardanelles and recoiled at the fate of the Hagia Sofia as they pondered the Ismaëls and Amirs in their own midst. Or perhaps they didn’t need to look so far—just to the insipid teenagers taking selfies and profaning the holy ground on which Notre-Dame was built. But perhaps they decided to preempt the indignities they sensed on the horizon. The enemy had arrived, and they’d be damned if they surrendered Notre-Dame. The only question that remains is, was the enemy the Arab hordes or France’s own effeminate, resigned sons?
Whatever Emmanuel Macron manages to do with the remains of Notre-Dame, to my mind it’s gone. I won’t be visiting the One World monument he turns it into. Apoptosis is a Greek word that, by origin, alludes to the autumn leaves—it describes a cell’s self-destruction to stop itself from poisoning the body it constitutes; here we see apoptosis to deprive the enemy.
I’ll mourn Notre-Dame, but in point of fact, it’s been gone a long time now. Speaking of the falling leaves apoptosis alludes to, some lyrics to a great song are apropos:
Oh, je voudrais tant que tu te souviennes Des jours heureux où nous étions amis En ce temps-là la vie était plus belle Et le soleil plus brûlant qu’aujourd’hui
James Fulford writes: The English version of this song is called "Autumn Leaves". The French version, above, is called "Dead Leaves"—more to the point. See also"Fairest Things Have Fleetest Endings"—Jared Taylor's review of Camp Of The Saints.


vdare--2020-04-16--Jeff Sessions Calls For Immigration Moratorium In Response To Coronavirus Devastation

I wrote this week about Republicans ’ disappointing lack of action on immigration in response to the Chinese coronavirus outbreak .
Thankfully , one prominent Republican is now calling for a temporary halt to immigration .
Alabama Senate candidate Jeff Sessions called for a temporary immigration moratorium Thursday morning .
His plan would halt all employment-based immigration until the U.S. unemployment rate falls below 3.5 percent .
That was the unemployment rate in February before the coronavirus struck America .
“ American families and workers must come first .
It is morally wrong and economically disastrous to import more foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of work through no fault of their own , ” Sessions said in his press statement .
“ Under my plan , we will put Americans back to work before we bring in more foreign labor .
Visitors who do not have the virus can still come to the United States , and foreign investment in our businesses and economy will continue to be welcomed , but employment immigration will cease until our national unemployment rate is back below 3.5 percent , as it was in February before this pandemic .
Rare exceptions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time-sensitive industries like farming , and only if the employer proves they tried to hire Americans first.
” This is a strong move that should help Sessions move the needle against his weaselly primary opponent , Tommy Tuberville .
Tuberville doesn ’ t want to punish China ; Sessions does .
[ Tuberville on China , coronavirus : ‘ We ’ ve got to worry about Alabama and this country ’ right now , by Henry Thornton , Yellowhammer News , April 4 , 2020 ] Tuberville doesn ’ t want to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tuberville doesn ’ t see the problem in importing cheap foreign labor to replace American workers ; Sessions does .
The choice is clear for Alabamians : they can pick a rock-solid immigration patriot , or they can go with an establishment toady .
Sessions proposal is exactly what America needs .
A sitting lawmaker should propose it in Congress when Capitol Hill reopens in May .

washingtonwatcherii@protonmail.com (Washington  Watcher II)

I wrote this week about Republicans’ disappointing lack of action on immigration in response to the Chinese coronavirus outbreak. Thankfully, one prominent Republican is now calling for a temporary halt to immigration.
Alabama Senate candidate Jeff Sessions called for a temporary immigration moratorium Thursday morning. His plan would halt all employment-based immigration until the U.S. unemployment rate falls below 3.5 percent. That was the unemployment rate in February before the coronavirus struck America.
More than 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment since mid-March. That's 12% of American labor force going without a paycheck!
That's why I'm calling on the federal gov to IMMEDIATELY halt immigration to the US until Americans are back to work. https://t.co/IKAQNNyLhx pic.twitter.com/pg5kQgtK1x — Jeff Sessions (@jeffsessions) April 16, 2020
“American families and workers must come first. It is morally wrong and economically disastrous to import more foreign workers when millions of Americans are out of work through no fault of their own,” Sessions said in his press statement.
He added:
“Under my plan, we will put Americans back to work before we bring in more foreign labor. Visitors who do not have the virus can still come to the United States, and foreign investment in our businesses and economy will continue to be welcomed, but employment immigration will cease until our national unemployment rate is back below 3.5 percent, as it was in February before this pandemic. Rare exceptions will be granted only in critical, time-sensitive industries like farming, and only if the employer proves they tried to hire Americans first.”
This is a strong move that should help Sessions move the needle against his weaselly primary opponent, Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville doesn’t want to punish China; Sessions does. [Tuberville on China, coronavirus: ‘We’ve got to worry about Alabama and this country’ right now, by Henry Thornton, Yellowhammer News, April 4, 2020] Tuberville doesn’t want to do anything about legal immigration; Sessions does. Tuberville doesn’t see the problem in importing cheap foreign labor to replace American workers; Sessions does.
The choice is clear for Alabamians: they can pick a rock-solid immigration patriot, or they can go with an establishment toady.
Sessions proposal is exactly what America needs. A sitting lawmaker should propose it in Congress when Capitol Hill reopens in May.


vdare--2020-04-16--Black Chicago Surgeon Blames Whites For Both Gun Violence AND "Disproportionate" Coronavirus Deaths

Black Chicago Surgeon Blames Whites For Both Gun Violence AND "Disproportionate" Coronavirus Deaths In Black Community

What we must do , after the next mass shooting drives the national debate about gun violence , is highlight that more black lives are lost annually to firearms than all mass shootings combined .
That gun violence flourishing in impoverished communities is not the result of a morally bankrupt black culture , but a byproduct of diminished economic opportunity .
And that to criminalize black victims of gun violence dismisses the humanity we share with those living in our most fragile communities .
We can talk about guns .
But in our country , where there are more firearms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 327 million people ) , the guns are not going away .
We could debate the Second Amendment .
But in District of Columbia v. Heller in 2008 , the Supreme Court ruled that individuals have the right to own firearms for self-defense .
We could demonize the National Rifle Association .
But that may alienate an important membership base committed to reducing gun violence .
Besides , to rid ourselves of the guns and the Second Amendment and the National Rifle Association does nothing to address the root causes of gun violence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Together we are bound across race , ethnicity , age , gender and profession to the 40,000 annual firearm-related deaths inflicted upon Americans .
Gun violence , like COVID-19 , is devastating communities of black Americans .
But when the pandemic ends , the violence no doubt will continue .
Therefore , together we must work to end these needless deaths and amplify the voices of all communities that are suffering .
Failure to do so is a collective opportunity missed to save lives , now and in the future .
Dr. Brian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ associate professor of trauma and acute care surgery at the University of Chicago Biological Sciences Division White people have nothing to do with black people shooting one another in segregated communities across Chicago .
After all , white flight was the original social distancing , and white people fled neighborhoods undergoing racial change because they could observe patterns in what this demographic meant : drop in property value due to the proclivity toward violence the new black arrivals brought to the once lily-white and safe communities .
Again , high rates of fatal/non-fatal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further proof individual white people collectively choosing to seek residence in neighborhoods devoid of blacks are allowing pattern recognition in violence to be their guide .
For lack of a better , segregation is nothing more than racial distancing .
High rates of fatal/non-fatal shootings are evident in heavily black areas across the nation , in cities like Milwaukee/Chicago/Indianapolis/Atlanta/Baltimore/New York City/Memphis/Charlotte/Jacksonville/Boston , where high rates of segregation ( racial distancing ) are a fact of life .
If you were to geographically switch the racial groups in every city , the patterns of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ community wherever they were relocated .
Likewise , white people have nothing to do with individual black people dying disproportionately from the Coronavirus .
Having successfully engaged in racial distancing from the problems of the black community , whites across the nation are engaging in social distancing to protect themselves and their families from the Coronavirus .
If blacks are dying disproportionately in cities where segregation ( racial distancing ) is common , then logically , this just means blacks are failing to practice social distancing at rates similar to whites and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s fault .
In fact , judging by rates of racial distancing being practiced by whites across the nation , it ’ s quite obvious social distancing has been the hallmark of race relations going back decades in this nation .
As we can observe by the lack of fatal/nonfatal gun violence in any predominantly white community in Chicago , and it being monopolized by blacks in heavily black areas of the city , racial distancing saves lives too .

What we must do, after the next mass shooting drives the national debate about gun violence, is highlight that more black lives are lost annually to firearms than all mass shootings combined. That gun violence flourishing in impoverished communities is not the result of a morally bankrupt black culture, but a byproduct of diminished economic opportunity. And that to criminalize black victims of gun violence dismisses the humanity we share with those living in our most fragile communities.
We can talk about guns. But in our country, where there are more firearms than people (393 million guns and 327 million people), the guns are not going away. We could debate the Second Amendment. But in District of Columbia v. Heller in 2008, the Supreme Court ruled that individuals have the right to own firearms for self-defense. We could demonize the National Rifle Association. But that may alienate an important membership base committed to reducing gun violence. Besides, to rid ourselves of the guns and the Second Amendment and the National Rifle Association does nothing to address the root causes of gun violence impacting segregated communities around the nation.
Together we are bound across race, ethnicity, age, gender and profession to the 40,000 annual firearm-related deaths inflicted upon Americans. Gun violence, like COVID-19, is devastating communities of black Americans. But when the pandemic ends, the violence no doubt will continue. Therefore, together we must work to end these needless deaths and amplify the voices of all communities that are suffering. Failure to do so is a collective opportunity missed to save lives, now and in the future.
Dr. Brian Williams [Email him] is an associate professor of trauma and acute care surgery at the University of Chicago Biological Sciences Division
White people have nothing to do with black people shooting one another in segregated communities across Chicago. After all, white flight was the original social distancing, and white people fled neighborhoods undergoing racial change because they could observe patterns in what this demographic meant: drop in property value due to the proclivity toward violence the new black arrivals brought to the once lily-white and safe communities.
Again, high rates of fatal/non-fatal shootings in black Chicago communities is just further proof individual white people collectively choosing to seek residence in neighborhoods devoid of blacks are allowing pattern recognition in violence to be their guide. For lack of a better, segregation is nothing more than racial distancing.
High rates of fatal/non-fatal shootings are evident in heavily black areas across the nation, in cities like Milwaukee/Chicago/Indianapolis/Atlanta/Baltimore/New York City/Memphis/Charlotte/Jacksonville/Boston, where high rates of segregation (racial distancing) are a fact of life.
If you were to geographically switch the racial groups in every city, the patterns of violence would magically move with the black community wherever they were relocated.
Likewise, white people have nothing to do with individual black people dying disproportionately from the Coronavirus. Having successfully engaged in racial distancing from the problems of the black community, whites across the nation are engaging in social distancing to protect themselves and their families from the Coronavirus.
If blacks are dying disproportionately in cities where segregation (racial distancing) is common, then logically, this just means blacks are failing to practice social distancing at rates similar to whites and other races.
Everything isn’t whitey’s fault. In fact, judging by rates of racial distancing being practiced by whites across the nation, it’s quite obvious social distancing has been the hallmark of race relations going back decades in this nation.
Social distancing saves lives.
As we can observe by the lack of fatal/nonfatal gun violence in any predominantly white community in Chicago, and it being monopolized by blacks in heavily black areas of the city, racial distancing saves lives too.


vdare--2020-04-16--NYT: We Need Affirmative Action To Keep White Men From Hogging The Ventilators

From the New York Times ‘ opinion page : The Way We Ration Ventilators Is Biased Not every patient has a fair chance .
By Harald Schmidt Dr. Schmidt [ Email him ] is an assistant professor in the department of medical ethics at the University of Pennsylvania .
Rationing ventilators might be a necessary response in the new Covid-19 world .
Many hospitals decide who gets them by selecting patients most likely to benefit .
Experts agree this is the best way of saving most lives .
The approach , the model guidance , may sound fair .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups who , even without a Covid-19 infection , experience worse health because of historical and structural reasons , especially black people .
Consider this case .
Three patients are waiting to be admitted to an intensive care unit that has one remaining bed .
All have equally severe Covid-19 symptoms .
John is an otherwise healthy , white 40-year-old man .
Rosa is a 45-year-old African-American woman with underlying health issues .
Linda is a white 56-year-old woman with Down syndrome .
Who should be admitted ?
Linda has high blood pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
She would need care for longer than John .
Clinicians might also consider her age ; life expectancy for people with Down is around 60 years .
Linda has fewer years left than John or Rosa .
Implicitly or explicitly , clinicians might not admit her on this ground .
Rosa grew up in a “ redlined ” part of town .
Accessing health care has been as challenging as accessing loans or healthy food .
Her community has significant distrust toward the health care system .
The Tuskegee Syphilis Study still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this article misses the hat trick .
While it cites redlining and the Tuskegee Syphilis Study , there is no mention whatsoever of Emmett Till .
Day-to-day racism experienced in the hospitals adds to this .
Some years she had insurance , some years she did not , which did not help with managing her asthma and diabetes .
Taken together , Rosa ’ s health is such that her statistical odds are similar to Linda ’ s .
The “ saving most lives ” model would admit John .
He is likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intensive care unit , allowing more patients to be put on the ventilator .
And since his life expectancy is the greatest , the time he spends on the ventilator enables him to live longer than Linda or Rosa .
But this “ colorblind '' approach ignores the structural reasons underlying Rosa ’ s health issues .
And it has also come under legal scrutiny for unfairly disadvantaging disabled people .
In response , guidance for ventilator rationing emphasizes that “ race , ethnicity , gender , insurance status , perceptions of social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” should be irrelevant — but even this approach can risk leaving several of the identified groups at a major disadvantage .
It would be one thing if only personal choice accounted for differences in health and life expectancy .
Or , if across racial or ethnic lines , income or insurance statuses , each group had the same share of people with major health conditions like diabetes or asthma , which can affect baseline health .
But that is not the case .
Baseline health is far worse among lower-income , uninsured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups .
Life expectancy likewise differs across groups .
The reasons are overwhelmingly structural and historical .
That ’ s why whites live so much longer than Mexican-Americans .
Oh , wait … Anyway , the good news is that ventilators aren ’ t in short supply most places .
The bad news is that in part that is because they don ’ t work as well as expected at saving lives .
But in turn , the good news is that doctors seems to have discovered some low cost work-arounds , like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to work at least as well .

From the New York Times‘ opinion page:
The Way We Ration Ventilators Is Biased
Not every patient has a fair chance. By Harald Schmidt
Dr. Schmidt [Email him] is an assistant professor in the department of medical ethics at the University of Pennsylvania. April 15, 2020 Rationing ventilators might be a necessary response in the new Covid-19 world. Many hospitals decide who gets them by selecting patients most likely to benefit. Experts agree this is the best way of saving most lives. The approach, the model guidance, may sound fair. But baked into it are biases that disadvantage groups who, even without a Covid-19 infection, experience worse health because of historical and structural reasons, especially black people. Consider this case. Three patients are waiting to be admitted to an intensive care unit that has one remaining bed. All have equally severe Covid-19 symptoms. John is an otherwise healthy, white 40-year-old man. Rosa is a 45-year-old African-American woman with underlying health issues. Linda is a white 56-year-old woman with Down syndrome. Who should be admitted? Linda has high blood pressure and complications from an earlier heart surgery. She would need care for longer than John. Clinicians might also consider her age; life expectancy for people with Down is around 60 years. Linda has fewer years left than John or Rosa. Implicitly or explicitly, clinicians might not admit her on this ground. Rosa grew up in a “redlined” part of town. Accessing health care has been as challenging as accessing loans or healthy food. Her community has significant distrust toward the health care system. The Tuskegee Syphilis Study still casts a long shadow.
Sadly, this article misses the hat trick. While it cites redlining and the Tuskegee Syphilis Study, there is no mention whatsoever of Emmett Till.
Day-to-day racism experienced in the hospitals adds to this. Some years she had insurance, some years she did not, which did not help with managing her asthma and diabetes. Taken together, Rosa’s health is such that her statistical odds are similar to Linda’s. The “saving most lives” model would admit John. He is likely to spend the least time in the intensive care unit, allowing more patients to be put on the ventilator. And since his life expectancy is the greatest, the time he spends on the ventilator enables him to live longer than Linda or Rosa. But this “colorblind" approach ignores the structural reasons underlying Rosa’s health issues. And it has also come under legal scrutiny for unfairly disadvantaging disabled people. In response, guidance for ventilator rationing emphasizes that “race, ethnicity, gender, insurance status, perceptions of social worth, immigration status, among others” should be irrelevant — but even this approach can risk leaving several of the identified groups at a major disadvantage. It would be one thing if only personal choice accounted for differences in health and life expectancy. Or, if across racial or ethnic lines, income or insurance statuses, each group had the same share of people with major health conditions like diabetes or asthma, which can affect baseline health. But that is not the case. Baseline health is far worse among lower-income, uninsured, disabled and particular racial and ethnic groups. Life expectancy likewise differs across groups. The reasons are overwhelmingly structural and historical.
That’s why whites live so much longer than Mexican-Americans. Oh, wait …
Anyway, the good news is that ventilators aren’t in short supply most places. The bad news is that in part that is because they don’t work as well as expected at saving lives. But in turn, the good news is that doctors seems to have discovered some low cost work-arounds, like laying on your stomach, that seem to work at least as well.


vdare--2020-04-16--In Today's Edition of "Asian-American Women Writers on the Make Frontlashing Whites Over Coronavirus

In Today's Edition of "Asian-American Women Writers on the Make Frontlashing Whites Over Coronavirus"—Cathy Park Hong

It feels like February again in the New York Times Magazine , with Korean-American lady writers milking their Google searches for anti-Chinese incidents for all they are worth : The Slur I Never Expected to Hear in 2020 As an Asian-American , I ’ ve been conditioned to a certain kind of unspoken racism .
This pandemic has unmasked how vicious it really is .
Early in February , I read unsupported speculations that a virus ravaging a distant city called Wuhan was due to a Chinese taste for a strange scaled mammal called the pangolin , which resembles an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tube-snouted look-alike .
Around that time , during a dinner party , I laughed when a friend quipped : “ How do you eat a pangolin anyway ?
Do you dip its scales in butter like an artichoke ?
” When I tweeted that same joke the next day , a writer I knew responded , “ It ’ s used for medicinal purposes.
” He was simply stating a fact , but I suddenly realized that I could be spreading stereotypes about Chinese people .
I deleted the tweet with a reminder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only around other Asians .
… In the past , I had a habit of minimizing anti-Asian racism because it had been drilled into me early on that racism against Asians didn ’ t exist .
Anytime that I raised concerns about a racial comment , I was told that it wasn ’ t racial .
Anytime I brought up an anti-Asian incident , a white person interjected that it was a distraction from the more important issue ( and there was always a more important issue ) .
I ’ ve been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low on the scale of oppression and therefore not worth bringing up even though every single Asian-American I know has stories of being emasculated , fetishized , humiliated , underpaid , fired or demoted because of our racial identities .
… If black and indigenous people were systematically enslaved , killed and dispossessed of property , the Chinese were excluded from the U.S. altogether , an immigration ban that was essentially a form of global segregation .
… “ I ’ m afraid to leave my home not because of coronavirus , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jest , “ but because I don ’ t want to be a victim of a hate crime.
” It doesn ’ t matter if our families hail from Thailand , Burma or the Philippines .
Racism is indiscriminate , carpet bombing groups that bear the slightest resemblance to one another .
We don ’ t have coronavirus .
We are coronavirus .
… I posted a picture of me wearing a mask on Instagram .
“ Wish me luck that I don ’ t get hate-crimed !
” I wrote in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as if I didn ’ t have any right to them — as if I was overreacting — so I was compelled to make light of them .
But once outside , I was genuinely afraid , as if there were guards on the rooftops of South Brooklyn watching me through their sniper scopes .
It is jarring to suddenly be so hypervisible .
As an East Asian woman , I am more used to being overlooked and underestimated .
… … Growing up , my distrust of white people manifested itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held my tongue or “ let them go first.
” It was a survival instinct , to curl myself in , so that there was no surface area vulnerable to insult .
… When a coronavirus-related racist incident happened to me , the perpetrator wasn ’ t white .
Like many New Yorkers , I was jaywalking and nearly walked into a Latino deliveryman whizzing by on his bicycle .
“ Chinese bitch !
” he shouted as he rode by .
I wasn ’ t filled with hot rage or a hurt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I was just rattled and then sad .
To be Asian in America during the time of coronavirus is to feel very alone .
You might think that everyone ’ s alone during the pandemic .
But it ’ s a different form of isolation carved out by that insidious model-minority myth , with its implication that as long as you worked hard and didn ’ t ask for handouts , racial inequities could be overcome .
… The model-minority myth is a lie that silences the structural economic racism Asian-Americans have endured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experienced from years of Western colonialism , wars and invasions .
I hated talking about the model-minority myth because it was like being stuck in a feedback loop .
After refuting that myth , I was dragged back to refute it again .
But when the pandemic struck , I realized how deeply entrenched that myth was in the psyches of not only whites but other people of color .
The coronavirus at least burned away any illusions that East Asians are almost white .
Since the first cases were discovered in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as an irradiating purple light lancing through the cracks of our white-supremacist world .
Some of us never noticed these cracks before , but now it is all that we can see .
African-Americans and Latinos are dying in higher proportions than anyone else in New York City , perhaps because of their lack of access to health care and because many of them are essential workers and can ’ t shelter at home .
But systemic racism keeps minorities separated .
White supremacy ensures that once the pressure of persecution is lifted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that group will then fall upon the newly targeted group out of relief and out of a frustrated misplaced rage that can never touch , let alone topple , the real enemy .
… Cathy Park Hong ’ s book of essays , “ Minor Feelings : An Asian American Reckoning ” was published in February 2020 by One World/Penguin Random House .
Seriously , even for the New York Times , the level of racist hatred in this essay is a little over the top .

It feels like February again in the New York Times Magazine, with Korean-American lady writers milking their Google searches for anti-Chinese incidents for all they are worth:
The Slur I Never Expected to Hear in 2020
As an Asian-American, I’ve been conditioned to a certain kind of unspoken racism. This pandemic has unmasked how vicious it really is. By Cathy Park Hong [Tweet her]
April 12, 2020 Early in February, I read unsupported speculations that a virus ravaging a distant city called Wuhan was due to a Chinese taste for a strange scaled mammal called the pangolin, which resembles an anteater but is cuddlier than its lumbering tube-snouted look-alike. Around that time, during a dinner party, I laughed when a friend quipped: “How do you eat a pangolin anyway? Do you dip its scales in butter like an artichoke?” When I tweeted that same joke the next day, a writer I knew responded, “It’s used for medicinal purposes.”
No, it’s not.
He was simply stating a fact, but I suddenly realized that I could be spreading stereotypes about Chinese people. I deleted the tweet with a reminder to self: Make fun of Asians only around other Asians. … In the past, I had a habit of minimizing anti-Asian racism because it had been drilled into me early on that racism against Asians didn’t exist. Anytime that I raised concerns about a racial comment, I was told that it wasn’t racial. Anytime I brought up an anti-Asian incident, a white person interjected that it was a distraction from the more important issue (and there was always a more important issue). I’ve been conditioned to think my second-class citizenry was low on the scale of oppression and therefore not worth bringing up even though every single Asian-American I know has stories of being emasculated, fetishized, humiliated, underpaid, fired or demoted because of our racial identities. … If black and indigenous people were systematically enslaved, killed and dispossessed of property, the Chinese were excluded from the U.S. altogether, an immigration ban that was essentially a form of global segregation. … “I’m afraid to leave my home not because of coronavirus,” my Asian friends say, half in jest, “but because I don’t want to be a victim of a hate crime.” It doesn’t matter if our families hail from Thailand, Burma or the Philippines. Racism is indiscriminate, carpet bombing groups that bear the slightest resemblance to one another. We don’t have coronavirus. We are coronavirus. … I posted a picture of me wearing a mask on Instagram. “Wish me luck that I don’t get hate-crimed!” I wrote in the caption. My fears still felt performative, as if I didn’t have any right to them — as if I was overreacting — so I was compelled to make light of them. But once outside, I was genuinely afraid, as if there were guards on the rooftops of South Brooklyn watching me through their sniper scopes. It is jarring to suddenly be so hypervisible. As an East Asian woman, I am more used to being overlooked and underestimated. … I’ve told this story before.
I bet you have.
… Growing up, my distrust of white people manifested itself in a physical unease in which I held my tongue or “let them go first.” It was a survival instinct, to curl myself in, so that there was no surface area vulnerable to insult. … When a coronavirus-related racist incident happened to me, the perpetrator wasn’t white. Like many New Yorkers, I was jaywalking and nearly walked into a Latino deliveryman whizzing by on his bicycle. “Chinese bitch!” he shouted as he rode by. I wasn’t filled with hot rage or a hurt that cut me to the bone. I was just rattled and then sad. To be Asian in America during the time of coronavirus is to feel very alone. You might think that everyone’s alone during the pandemic. But it’s a different form of isolation carved out by that insidious model-minority myth, with its implication that as long as you worked hard and didn’t ask for handouts, racial inequities could be overcome. … The model-minority myth is a lie that silences the structural economic racism Asian-Americans have endured and the intergenerational traumas our families have experienced from years of Western colonialism, wars and invasions. I hated talking about the model-minority myth because it was like being stuck in a feedback loop. After refuting that myth, I was dragged back to refute it again. But when the pandemic struck, I realized how deeply entrenched that myth was in the psyches of not only whites but other people of color. The coronavirus at least burned away any illusions that East Asians are almost white. Since the first cases were discovered in the U.S., I kept imagining the coronavirus as an irradiating purple light lancing through the cracks of our white-supremacist world. Some of us never noticed these cracks before, but now it is all that we can see. African-Americans and Latinos are dying in higher proportions than anyone else in New York City, perhaps because of their lack of access to health care and because many of them are essential workers and can’t shelter at home. But systemic racism keeps minorities separated. White supremacy ensures that once the pressure of persecution is lifted even a little from one group, that group will then fall upon the newly targeted group out of relief and out of a frustrated misplaced rage that can never touch, let alone topple, the real enemy. … Cathy Park Hong’s book of essays, “Minor Feelings: An Asian American Reckoning” was published in February 2020 by One World/Penguin Random House.
Seriously, even for the New York Times, the level of racist hatred in this essay is a little over the top.


vdare--2020-04-17--This Day In VDARE.com History, 2016: GOP Discovers IRS Scandal Reported In ALIEN NATION 21 Years Ago

This Day In VDARE.com History, 2016: GOP Discovers IRS Scandal Reported In ALIEN NATION 21 Years Ago (Now 25!)

Originally reported on this day here on VDARE.com in 2016 .
In Politico , conservative Republicans are quoted attacking the IRS for its handling of the tax returns of illegals : It is the latest in a string of complaints that congressional Republicans have leveled against the agency .
The issue in this instance concerns illegal immigrants who use other people ’ s social security numbers ( SSNs ) to get jobs and then file their taxes with their IRS-issued Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers ( ITINs ) .
Although the tax returns contain false W-2 information , the IRS continues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not notify the people whose SSNs were used.Responding to questions from Sen. Dan Coats ( R-Ind . )
at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday , Koskinen said that in such cases “ it ’ s in everybody ’ s interest to have them pay the taxes they owe.
” The IRS is looking to see if there is a way they can alert victims whose SSNs were used fraudulently without discouraging people from filing their taxes , he added .
The next day , at a House Small Business Committee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) asked Koskinen about his remarks at the Senate Finance Committee hearing .
Koskinen said that his agency ’ s responsibility is tax administration and it is not in their jurisdiction to go after people who used fraudulent SSNs to get a job .
“ We have Social Security and immigration authorities and others who enforce that part of the law , and if we start looking behind the system and doing their job for them , we ’ re going to discourage a lot of people from paying the taxes they owe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Hill on Friday that he was “ shocked ” and “ horrified ” by Koskinen ’ s response .
Brat said he had hoped the commissioner would take a different attitude but instead “ he…almost doubled-down on it and just said , ‘ That ’ s not our job .
’ ”

Earlier by Peter Bradley: Re-Reading Peter Brimelow's ALIEN NATION-25 Years Later
Originally reported on this day here on VDARE.com in 2016.
In Politico, conservative Republicans are quoted attacking the IRS for its handling of the tax returns of illegals:
It is the latest in a string of complaints that congressional Republicans have leveled against the agency.
The issue in this instance concerns illegal immigrants who use other people’s social security numbers (SSNs) to get jobs and then file their taxes with their IRS-issued Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITINs).
Although the tax returns contain false W-2 information, the IRS continues to process them, and the agency does not notify the people whose SSNs were used.Responding to questions from Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday, Koskinen said that in such cases “it’s in everybody’s interest to have them pay the taxes they owe.”
The IRS is looking to see if there is a way they can alert victims whose SSNs were used fraudulently without discouraging people from filing their taxes, he added.
The next day, at a House Small Business Committee hearing, Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) asked Koskinen about his remarks at the Senate Finance Committee hearing. Koskinen said that his agency’s responsibility is tax administration and it is not in their jurisdiction to go after people who used fraudulent SSNs to get a job.
“We have Social Security and immigration authorities and others who enforce that part of the law, and if we start looking behind the system and doing their job for them, we’re going to discourage a lot of people from paying the taxes they owe,” Koskinen said.
Brat told The Hill on Friday that he was “shocked” and “horrified” by Koskinen’s response.
Brat said he had hoped the commissioner would take a different attitude but instead “he…almost doubled-down on it and just said, ‘That’s not our job.’”
GOP blasts IRS over illegal immigrants' tax returns, By Naomi Jagoda, Politico, April 16, 2016.


vdare--2020-04-17--Infection Rate in Silicon Valley in Early April Was 1% to 6%, Suggesting Infection Fatality Rate Is

Infection Rate in Silicon Valley in Early April Was 1% to 6%, Suggesting Infection Fatality Rate Is Much Lower Than Case Fatality Rate, But That Herd Immunity Is Far Off

Here ’ s today ’ s much-awaited PDF preprint ( not peer reviewed ) by a Stanford team that performed blood antibody tests on a fairly representative sample of 3,330 Santa Clara County residents on April 3-4 .
Stanford professor authors Bendavid , Bhattacharya , and Ioannidis have been fairly prominent skeptics of the recent conventional wisdom .
As you ’ ll recall , a PCR nasal swab test is intended to measure whether you are infected right now , while an antibody blood test is intended to measure whether you have ever been infected ( or perhaps not counting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : On 4/3-4/4 , 2020 , we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay .
Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics .
We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people , adjusting for zip code , sex , and race/ethnicity .
We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates : ( i ) the test manufacturer ’ s data , ( ii ) a sample of 37 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stanford , and ( iii ) a combination of both .
Results : The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5 % ( exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97 % ) , and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81 % ( 95CI 2.24-3.37 % ) .
Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics , the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49 % ( 95CI 1.80-3.17 % ) to 4.16 % ( 2.58-5.70 % ) .
For all its biomedical technology , California had shamefully low testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country , until late March .
So its Case Fatality Rate ( deaths/confirmed cases ) was much exaggerated relative to its Infection Fertility Rate ( deaths/actual infections ) .
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April , 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases .
Conclusions : The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases .
Population prevalence estimates can now be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On the other hand , that looks like a long way from herd immunity , which is usually assumed to be over 50 % .
There has been two popular arguments for optimism : • Infection Fatality Rate has been much lower than the Case Fatality Rate • We are practically to Herd Immunity .
This new paper seems to support the first proposition , but not the second .
On the other other hand , Silicon Valley has been surprisingly lightly hit for a place with a lot of contact with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infections in the U.S .
Presumably , places like NYC have higher infection rates .
One study from a New York City hospital of women coming in for childbirth found a 15 % infection rate , although one commenter alleged that hospital had a lot of Ultraorthodox patients , who have seemingly been hard hit .
Here is the Wall Street Journal op-ed by Professors Bendavid and Bhattacharya Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say ?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24 , 2020 6:21 pm ET If it ’ s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines , then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified .
But there ’ s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high .
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2 % to 4 % of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died , according to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease , two million to four million could die .
We believe that estimate is deeply flawed .
The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die , not the deaths from identified positive cases .
The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing .
The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited .
But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million .
If the number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well .
That ’ s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far .
, , , An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected .
As of March 23 , according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S .
If our surmise of six million cases is accurate Ten days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % to 6 % infected , which would be 3 million to 20 million nationwide , although it ’ s hard to guess how Silicon Valley compares to the rest of the country : it has a very high percentage of world travelers , but it also went heavily for work-from-home fairly early in March and has a population that is way above the American average in the cognitive power to grasp and follow new rules .
But now we are up from 499 deaths to 31,647 deaths .
Anyway , this valuable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t all that high ( absent hospitals being overwhelmed ) , but Herd Immunity is still a long way off .
My opinion is the big , unexpected development is that hospital capacity has proven more elastic than was assumed .
Strikingly , this didn ’ t happen so much by expanding medical care supply as by depressing medical care demand .
Non-COVID trips to the emergency room went way down , and NYC doctors innovated a new protocol for treating COVID patients with breathing problems ( put them on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that cut ventilator demand substantially .
Because caring for patients on ventilators is hugely labor-intensive , that in turn cut demand for doctors and nurses to far below earlier estimates .
So , we appear to have Flattened the Curve .

Here’s today’s much-awaited PDF preprint (not peer reviewed) by a Stanford team that performed blood antibody tests on a fairly representative sample of 3,330 Santa Clara County residents on April 3-4. Stanford professor authors Bendavid, Bhattacharya, and Ioannidis have been fairly prominent skeptics of the recent conventional wisdom.
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California Eran Bendavid, Bianca Mulaney, Neeraj Sood, Soleil Shah, Emilia Ling, Rebecca Bromley-Dulfano, Cara Lai, Zoe Weissberg, Rodrigo Saavedra, James Tedrow, Dona Tversky, Andrew Bogan, Thomas Kupiec, Daniel Eichner, Ribhav Gupta, John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya Background: Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County.
As you’ll recall, a PCR nasal swab test is intended to measure whether you are infected right now, while an antibody blood test is intended to measure whether you have ever been infected (or perhaps not counting the most recent days).
Methods: On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer’s data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results: The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%).
For all its biomedical technology, California had shamefully low testing percentages, among the worst in the country, until late March. So its Case Fatality Rate (deaths/confirmed cases) was much exaggerated relative to its Infection Fertility Rate (deaths/actual infections).
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions: The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
On the other hand, that looks like a long way from herd immunity, which is usually assumed to be over 50%.
There has been two popular arguments for optimism:
Infection Fatality Rate has been much lower than the Case Fatality Rate
We are practically to Herd Immunity.
This new paper seems to support the first proposition, but not the second.
On the other other hand, Silicon Valley has been surprisingly lightly hit for a place with a lot of contact with China and some of the earlier known infections in the U.S.
Presumably, places like NYC have higher infection rates. One study from a New York City hospital of women coming in for childbirth found a 15% infection rate, although one commenter alleged that hospital had a lot of Ultraorthodox patients, who have seemingly been hard hit.
Here is the Wall Street Journal op-ed by Professors Bendavid and Bhattacharya
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
March 24, 2020 6:21 pm ET If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high. Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases. The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far. ,,, An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate
Ten days later, Santa Clara County had 1% to 6% infected, which would be 3 million to 20 million nationwide, although it’s hard to guess how Silicon Valley compares to the rest of the country: it has a very high percentage of world travelers, but it also went heavily for work-from-home fairly early in March and has a population that is way above the American average in the cognitive power to grasp and follow new rules.
, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
But now we are up from 499 deaths to 31,647 deaths.
Anyway, this valuable new data suggest that Case Fatality Rates aren’t all that high (absent hospitals being overwhelmed), but Herd Immunity is still a long way off.
My opinion is the big, unexpected development is that hospital capacity has proven more elastic than was assumed.
Strikingly, this didn’t happen so much by expanding medical care supply as by depressing medical care demand. Non-COVID trips to the emergency room went way down, and NYC doctors innovated a new protocol for treating COVID patients with breathing problems (put them on their stomachs and treat with oxygen masks) that cut ventilator demand substantially. Because caring for patients on ventilators is hugely labor-intensive, that in turn cut demand for doctors and nurses to far below earlier estimates.
So, we appear to have Flattened the Curve.
Now what?
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-04-17--Her Name Is Andrea Camps: Two Black Males Murder 18-Year White High School Senior in "Botched Sneake

Her Name Is Andrea Camps: Two Black Males Murder 18-Year White High School Senior in "Botched Sneaker Deal"

PK NOTE : Their Lives Matter Too .
It ’ s a book you must pick up .
Names you ’ ve never encountered , stories you ’ ve never read about , all for one , unmentionable reason : black on white murder .
We were never supposed to notice what ’ s happening .
We were never supposed to catalogue the names and tell their stories .
But we did .
But we have .
Their Lives Matter Too .
We are force-fed these ideas from cradle to grave , as they represent the highest morality in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carefully choreographed script immediately castigates you as a pariah , unworthy of admission into polite society .
The only panacea to what ’ s happening is not to notice patterns , pretend they don ’ t exist , and to blindly and without question blame all problems the black community faces on one of the following ( or all , if you wish ) : redlining , structural inequality , implicit bias , white privilege , the residue of a white supremacist power structure , the bigotry of low expectations , the legacy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brown-paperbag test .
Just believe in D.I.E.T.
, because believing in these concepts means you understand , fundamentally , your right to exist is forfeit .
Ultimately , you exist not to enact policies that will be beneficial “ for our posterity , ” but to ensure the proliferation of the principles of Diversity .
Inclusion .
Equity .
Tolerance ( D.I.E.T. )
.
But for one brief moment , let ’ s pretend we aren ’ t afraid to veer in a different direction and engage in pattern recognition .
To notice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and boasting the right prescription .
What horror might we encounter ?
Two black males murdered a white 18-year-old female over a pair of shoes in a “ transaction gone wrong.
” Her name is Andrea Camps .
Hundreds line up to honor 18-year-old victim killed over Yeezy sneakers in Miami-Dade , Local10.com , April 14 , 2020 Hundreds of drivers showed up Tuesday to a procession in honor of Andrea Camps , an 18-year-old Terra Environmental Research Institute student who was killed during a robbery in Miami-Dade County .
Camps ’ family @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respect social distancing guidelines during the coronavirus pandemic .
“ Rest in peace , angel , ” read one sign on a pick-up truck .
A large heart-shaped picture of Camps was hanging from the side of a sports utility vehicle .
A teenage girl held a sign with flowers : “ Our condolences for your loss .
She is in heaven now.
” Camps ’ funeral and burial service were at Caballero Rivero Woodlawn South at 11655 SW 117th Ave. , in Kendall .
On a table , the family displayed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There were also pictures of her days as a student at the Devon Aire K-8 Center , and a stuffed animal with a Florida International University shirt .
She had been admitted to nursing school there .
When the service was over , her mother , Maria Lacayo , and her sister Alex Camps , stood near the side of the road in the cemetery to wave at the drivers .
“ We love you , ” a woman shouted from the passenger side of a sedan .
Camps died April 7th @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her boyfriend to steal $ 935 in Adidas Yeezy sneakers , police said .
The two accused confessed and are being held without bond .
News of the murder made it all the way to England .
On Tuesday , a small group attended an open-casket prayer service with Monsignor Pablo Navarro , of St. John Neumann Catholic Church .
Between 300 to 400 people watched it on Instagram Live .
The drivers lined up on 117th Avenue and followed Miami-Dade police officers guiding them near the gravesite where Camps family greeted them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cemetery ’ s exit on 112th Street .
The Camps Lacayo family is planning a mass when her headstone is ready for installation at the graveside .
Andrea Camps had her whole life in front of her , preparing to graduate high school and embark on a college career leading to her chosen vocation of being a nurse .
But she was murdered by two black males over a pair of shoes .
The racial dynamics of what happened to Ms. Camps ’ occurs with frightening frequency across the United States , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ruling ideology of D.I.E.T .
dare notice .
Yet we persist in rebelling .
We persist in noticing the failure of policies inevitably leading to the collapse of our civilization .
Her Name is Andrea Camps .

PK NOTE: Their Lives Matter Too. It’s a book you must pick up. Names you’ve never encountered, stories you’ve never read about, all for one, unmentionable reason: black on white murder. We were never supposed to notice what’s happening. We were never supposed to catalogue the names and tell their stories. But we did. But we have. Their Lives Matter Too.
Diversity. Inclusion. Equity. Tolerance (D.I.E.T.).
We are force-fed these ideas from cradle to grave, as they represent the highest morality in the western world. Any deviation from this carefully choreographed script immediately castigates you as a pariah, unworthy of admission into polite society. The only panacea to what’s happening is not to notice patterns, pretend they don’t exist, and to blindly and without question blame all problems the black community faces on one of the following (or all, if you wish): redlining, structural inequality, implicit bias, white privilege, the residue of a white supremacist power structure, the bigotry of low expectations, the legacy of slavery or failure to pass the brown-paperbag test.
Just believe in D.I.E.T., because believing in these concepts means you understand, fundamentally, your right to exist is forfeit. Ultimately, you exist not to enact policies that will be beneficial “for our posterity,” but to ensure the proliferation of the principles of Diversity. Inclusion. Equity. Tolerance (D.I.E.T.).
But for one brief moment, let’s pretend we aren’t afraid to veer in a different direction and engage in pattern recognition. To notice reality with our racial lenses firmly attuned and boasting the right prescription. What horror might we encounter? Two black males murdered a white 18-year-old female over a pair of shoes in a “transaction gone wrong.”
Her name is Andrea Camps.
Hundreds line up to honor 18-year-old victim killed over Yeezy sneakers in Miami-Dade, Local10.com, April 14, 2020 Hundreds of drivers showed up Tuesday to a procession in honor of Andrea Camps, an 18-year-old Terra Environmental Research Institute student who was killed during a robbery in Miami-Dade County. Camps’ family asked the drivers to avoid stopping to respect social distancing guidelines during the coronavirus pandemic. “Rest in peace, angel,” read one sign on a pick-up truck. A large heart-shaped picture of Camps was hanging from the side of a sports utility vehicle. A teenage girl held a sign with flowers: “Our condolences for your loss. She is in heaven now.” Camps’ funeral and burial service were at Caballero Rivero Woodlawn South at 11655 SW 117th Ave., in Kendall. On a table, the family displayed a picture of her during her First Communion. There were also pictures of her days as a student at the Devon Aire K-8 Center, and a stuffed animal with a Florida International University shirt. She had been admitted to nursing school there. When the service was over, her mother, Maria Lacayo, and her sister Alex Camps, stood near the side of the road in the cemetery to wave at the drivers. “We love you,” a woman shouted from the passenger side of a sedan. Camps died April 7th when two 19-year-old men ambushed her and her boyfriend to steal $935 in Adidas Yeezy sneakers, police said. The two accused confessed and are being held without bond. News of the murder made it all the way to England. On Tuesday, a small group attended an open-casket prayer service with Monsignor Pablo Navarro, of St. John Neumann Catholic Church. Between 300 to 400 people watched it on Instagram Live. The drivers lined up on 117th Avenue and followed Miami-Dade police officers guiding them near the gravesite where Camps family greeted them in tears. The procession ended at the cemetery’s exit on 112th Street. The Camps Lacayo family is planning a mass when her headstone is ready for installation at the graveside.
Murdered over a pair of shoes.
Andrea Camps had her whole life in front of her, preparing to graduate high school and embark on a college career leading to her chosen vocation of being a nurse.
But she was murdered by two black males over a pair of shoes.
The racial dynamics of what happened to Ms. Camps’ occurs with frightening frequency across the United States, though only those heretics of the benevolent ruling ideology of D.I.E.T. dare notice.
Yet we persist in rebelling.
We persist in noticing the failure of policies inevitably leading to the collapse of our civilization.
Her Name is Andrea Camps.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-04-17--What Is Australia Doing Right On Coronavirus?

Australia is a country of 25 million with a couple of big cities and it had a lot of travel @ @ @ @ @ .
But its coronavirus stats are remarkably non-alarming : It ’ s the Northern hemisphere @ @ @ @ @ right now .
Here ’ s Sydney ’ s idyllic weather forecast in fahrenheit ( @ @ @ @ @ degrees C ) : Melbourne will be cooler , but still pretty nice : Or @ @ @ @ @ the East Asian Not So Bad Sphere ?
If you told me there was a @ @ @ @ @ that spread to East Asia , Australia and California and a more dangerous Italian version @ @ @ @ @ City , I might think you are on to something .
But is there ?
@ @ @ @ @ there ?

Australia is a country of 25 million with a couple of big cities and it had a lot of travel back and forth with China. But its coronavirus stats are remarkably non-alarming:
It’s the Northern hemisphere equivalent of October 17 there right now. Here’s Sydney’s idyllic weather forecast in fahrenheit (72 degrees F = 22 degrees C):
Melbourne will be cooler, but still pretty nice:
Or is Australia just part of the East Asian Not So Bad Sphere?
If you told me there was a Chinese version of the virus that spread to East Asia, Australia and California and a more dangerous Italian version that spread to New York City, I might think you are on to something. But is there?
What else is going on there?
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-04-17--How to Use Immigrants to Study Whether BCG Vaccine Is Advantageous

An idea that has been kicking around for awhile is that differences in the use of the old BCG vaccine for tuberculosis might help explain some of the puzzling differences between countries with seemingly similar populations : e.g.
, Portugal , where BCG inoculation has been mandatory since 1965 , has mostly done better than Spain , where BCG has not been mandatory since 1981 .
Obscure details of national vaccination policies might help explain otherwise puzzling national differences in the course of the pandemic .
I ’ m not saying that they do explain it , but they seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like methodological differences in how data are categorized , that might help explain sharp differences between neighboring countries .
Differential COVID-19-attributable mortality and BCG vaccine use in countries Abstract While mortality attributable to COVID-19 has devastated global health systems and economies , striking regional differences have been observed .
The Bacille Calmette Guérin ( BCG ) vaccine has previously been shown to have non-specific protective effects on infections , as well as longterm efficacy against tuberculosis .
Using publicly available data we built a simple log-linear regression model to assess the association of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million population after adjusting for confounders including country economic status ( GDP per capita ) , and proportion of elderly among the population .
The timing of country entry into the pandemic epidemiological trajectory was aligned by plotting time since the 100th reported case .
Countries with economies classified as lower-middle-income , upper-middle-income and high income countries ( LMIC , UMIC , HIC ) had median crude COVID-19 log-mortality of 0.4 ( Interquartile Range ( IQR ) 0.1 , 0.4 ) , 0.7 ( IQR 0.2 , 2.2 ) and 5.5 ( IQR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19-attributable mortality among BCG-using countries was 5.8 times lower [ 95 % CI 1.8- 19.0 ] than in non BCG-using countries .
Notwithstanding limitations due to testing constraints in LMICs , case ascertainment bias and a plausible rise of cases as countries progress along the epidemiological trajectory , these analyses provide intriguing observations that urgently warrant mobilization of resources for prospective randomized interventional studies and institution of systematic disease surveillance , particularly in LMICs .
In America , we need to look at the infection rates of immigrants from countries where BCG was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not mandatory , and children of immigrants born in the US ( where it has never been mandatory ) .
It would also be useful to look at immigrants to the US from countries where BCG mandates were changed during living memory : e.g.
, if Portuguese immigrants born , say , before 1965 have a much higher rate of infection than Portuguese immigrants born after 1965 ( or whatever the relevant cutoff date would be if the Portuguese policy was to inoculate not babies but schoolchildren ) .
Unfortunately , the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been set up with the intention of obscuring the origins of pandemic patients in order to fulfill the Establishment ’ s highest priority : Avoiding Stigmatization of the Marginalized .
It was assumed that future epidemics would be centered among immigrants , racial minorities , homosexuals , and so forth , and these patterns must be covered up to prevent a Backlash against the morally superior marginalized .
Hence , we didn ’ t have any data by race for many weeks until recently , and we still don ’ t seem to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immigration status .
What nobody saw coming was that immigrants might have health advantages over Americans that should be studied to figure out what their homelands did right .
Hard-hit Ecuador stands out as a Latin American country that no longer has mandatory BCG .
Are younger people more at risk in Ecuador than in similar countries like Colombia and Peru ?
But collecting data on immigrants is not a high priority of our elites .

An idea that has been kicking around for awhile is that differences in the use of the old BCG vaccine for tuberculosis might help explain some of the puzzling differences between countries with seemingly similar populations: e.g., Portugal, where BCG inoculation has been mandatory since 1965, has mostly done better than Spain, where BCG has not been mandatory since 1981.
Obscure details of national vaccination policies might help explain otherwise puzzling national differences in the course of the pandemic. I’m not saying that they do explain it, but they seem like a class of explanations that, like methodological differences in how data are categorized, that might help explain sharp differences between neighboring countries.
Differential COVID-19-attributable mortality and BCG vaccine use in countries Anita Shet, Debashree Ray, Neelika Malavige, Mathuram Santosham, Naor Bar-Zeev Abstract
While mortality attributable to COVID-19 has devastated global health systems and economies, striking regional differences have been observed. The Bacille Calmette Guérin (BCG) vaccine has previously been shown to have non-specific protective effects on infections, as well as longterm efficacy against tuberculosis. Using publicly available data we built a simple log-linear regression model to assess the association of BCG use and COVID-19-attributable mortality per 1 million population after adjusting for confounders including country economic status (GDP per capita), and proportion of elderly among the population. The timing of country entry into the pandemic epidemiological trajectory was aligned by plotting time since the 100th reported case. Countries with economies classified as lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income and high income countries (LMIC, UMIC, HIC) had median crude COVID-19 log-mortality of 0.4 (Interquartile Range (IQR) 0.1, 0.4), 0.7 (IQR 0.2, 2.2) and 5.5 (IQR 1.6, 13.9), respectively. COVID-19-attributable mortality among BCG-using countries was 5.8 times lower [95% CI 1.8- 19.0] than in non BCG-using countries. Notwithstanding limitations due to testing constraints in LMICs, case ascertainment bias and a plausible rise of cases as countries progress along the epidemiological trajectory, these analyses provide intriguing observations that urgently warrant mobilization of resources for prospective randomized interventional studies and institution of systematic disease surveillance, particularly in LMICs.
In America, we need to look at the infection rates of immigrants from countries where BCG was mandatory, from countries where it was not mandatory, and children of immigrants born in the US (where it has never been mandatory). It would also be useful to look at immigrants to the US from countries where BCG mandates were changed during living memory: e.g., if Portuguese immigrants born, say, before 1965 have a much higher rate of infection than Portuguese immigrants born after 1965 (or whatever the relevant cutoff date would be if the Portuguese policy was to inoculate not babies but schoolchildren).
Unfortunately, the public health data reporting system appears to have been set up with the intention of obscuring the origins of pandemic patients in order to fulfill the Establishment’s highest priority: Avoiding Stigmatization of the Marginalized. It was assumed that future epidemics would be centered among immigrants, racial minorities, homosexuals, and so forth, and these patterns must be covered up to prevent a Backlash against the morally superior marginalized. Hence, we didn’t have any data by race for many weeks until recently, and we still don’t seem to have any data by national origin or immigration status.
What nobody saw coming was that immigrants might have health advantages over Americans that should be studied to figure out what their homelands did right.
iSteve commenter utu adds:
There are orders of magnitude more Mexicans than Portuguese in the US. Mexico has 95% BCG inoculation coverage. Mexico began its vaccination program in 1951. Comparing Chicanos with Mexican residents in the US should give a large sample to test the BCG hypothesis. However I would not expect that American medical establishment would be interested looking into it. The BCG World Atlas
http://www.bcgatlas.org/
Hard-hit Ecuador stands out as a Latin American country that no longer has mandatory BCG. Are younger people more at risk in Ecuador than in similar countries like Colombia and Peru?
The BCG World Atlas: A Database of Global BCG Vaccination Policies and Practices
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062527/
But collecting data on immigrants is not a high priority of our elites.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-04-17--Government Needs To Break The Coronavirus Data Lockdown

There are lots of important hypotheses to be tested .
But none will be investigated until long after it is too late and the virus has run its course through the whole population .
Pursuant to bureaucratic fragmentation , HIIPA red tape , and political butt-covering , comprehensive or representative data is totally inaccessible .
No systematic data records who caught the virus , when they caught it , what health effects they suffered because of it , and their health and demographic backgrounds .
Indeed , the powers that be have barely even starting the process of doing representative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resources available , including very smart data analysts and medical researchers could be enlisted to crowdsource solutions .
But they can ’ t do a damn thing without the data : Which is either not being collected , or is locked up tight .
As I may have mentioned once or twice before , for the last 7 years , the Internal Revenue Service has been letting Harvard economist Raj Chetty trawl through your tax returns and mine , which he has done to great media acclaim and almost zero criticism because the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his bright boys couldn ’ t possibly figure out who is who .
In the current crisis , why can ’ t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with , say , Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions ?
This could be hugely useful at telling us how much risk , say , schoolteachers would be in from reopening schools .
What about workers at law firms ?
Bus drivers ?
Assembly line workers ?
This kind of info would be useful to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ again .
It could be be that , say , 20 % of jobs account for 80 % of infections among the employed .
Why not figure out who is in the Relatively Safe 80 % ?
There are a million other potentially helpful questions that could be tackled from existing databases .
It ’ s tragic that America is hamstrung for a lack of mask manufacturing capacity , but it ’ s ridiculous for America to be hamstrung because of a lack of something we have in the greatest abundance in human @ @ @ @ @

iSteve commenter Hypnotoad666 writes:
There are lots of important hypotheses to be tested. But none will be investigated until long after it is too late and the virus has run its course through the whole population. Pursuant to bureaucratic fragmentation, HIIPA red tape, and political butt-covering, comprehensive or representative data is totally inaccessible. No systematic data records who caught the virus, when they caught it, what health effects they suffered because of it, and their health and demographic backgrounds. Indeed, the powers that be have barely even starting the process of doing representative sampling. There are vast data analytic resources available, including very smart data analysts and medical researchers could be enlisted to crowdsource solutions. But they can’t do a damn thing without the data: Which is either not being collected, or is locked up tight.
As I may have mentioned once or twice before, for the last 7 years, the Internal Revenue Service has been letting Harvard economist Raj Chetty trawl through your tax returns and mine, which he has done to great media acclaim and almost zero criticism because the tax returns are anoymized so Chetty and his bright boys couldn’t possibly figure out who is who.
In the current crisis, why can’t some Big Data wizard be allowed to do something similar with, say, Veterans Administration or Kaiser Permanente data on the health records of millions? This could be hugely useful at telling us how much risk, say, schoolteachers would be in from reopening schools. What about workers at law firms? Bus drivers? Assembly line workers? This kind of info would be useful to know to build confidence in the economy again.
It could be be that, say, 20% of jobs account for 80% of infections among the employed. Why not figure out who is in the Relatively Safe 80%?
There are a million other potentially helpful questions that could be tackled from existing databases.
It’s tragic that America is hamstrung for a lack of mask manufacturing capacity, but it’s ridiculous for America to be hamstrung because of a lack of something we have in the greatest abundance in human history: number-crunching power.
[Comment at Unz.com]