vdare--2020-03-19--On the Other Hand: Ioannidis's Critique of the Lockdown vs. Sailer Response: LET'S GET the DATA

Ioannidis is the highly respected Stanford epidemiologist / statistician whose 2005 paper “ Why Most Published Research Findings Are False ” has been immensely influential on what is now known as the Replication Crisis .
The current coronavirus disease , Covid-19 , has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic .
But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco .
At a time when everyone needs better information , from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing , we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact .
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries .
If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable .
How long , though , should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated ?
How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm ?
Vaccines or affordable treatments take many months ( or even years ) to develop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the consequences of long-term lockdowns are entirely unknown .
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable .
Given the limited testing to date , some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed .
We don ’ t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300 .
Three months after the outbreak emerged , most countries , including the U.S. , lack the ability to test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population .
Emil O W Kirkegaard asks : “ Why don ’ t they do random sampling tests for Corona ?
Same as they do polls for elections .
Do them every day , 1000 representative people .
Why not ?
Surely , the governments of the world can figure out how to do random sampling and get those 1000 tests done.
” Everyday in my neighborhood , for example , there are lots of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day .
People are carrying on cheerful conversations from 10 feet apart.Community feeling is strong .
Publicize on neighborhood websites like Nextdoor.com that an official survey will be done by testers in white coats walking door to door on Saturday .
They ’ ll do the test on your front porch without coming into your house .
Each survey person was tested on Friday and proved negative .
You could quickly get a local fairly random sample ( say 10 people in each of 100 neighborhoods — or do we need 10,000 people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more widespread than assumed , which would suggest the death rate is lower .
Or it could be that it ’ s still rare , which would be useful to know .
Here ’ s computer guru Danny Hillis saying the same thing .
Let ’ s test in the Seattle area this weekend .
Seattle is not lacking in high-profile billionaires , such as Gates , Bezos , or Schulz , who can write a check to cover it .
We can do this .
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Reported case fatality rates , like the official 3.4 % rate from the World Health Organization , cause horror — and are meaningless .
Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes .
As most health systems have limited testing capacity , selection bias may even worsen in the near future .
The one situation where an entire , closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers .
The case fatality rate there was 1.0 % , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher .
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population , the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125 % .
But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower ( 0.025 % ) to five times higher ( 0.625 % ) .
Perhaps .
Or it could turn out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environment and an Italian scenario is more common .
Or it could turn out that one of these new treatments works and the death rate a month from now is even lower .
Or many other possibilities .
At this point , the future is unwritten .
A big issue is what we might call Data Hygiene .
For example , Italy has a high death rate while , so far , Germany has a low death rate .
Is that due to actual differences or due to methodological differences in how numbers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a clue , but somebody out there has a clue , so we should listen to them .
1 % case fatality rate of 60 % infected is about 2 million deaths .
On the other hand , another way to measure this is years lost .
For example , I ’ m 61 .
I don ’ t have all that many years left , and I ’ ve enjoyed a fine life .
It ’ s not that big of a tragedy if this thing takes me down .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I ’ m very much against that outcome , so I ’ m washing/sanitizing my hands 60 times per day and turning on and off light switches with my elbow . )
If this is only going to kill or maim us old folks , well , that ’ s not so bad .
But … how much statistical confidence we can have in the age structure of the effects is vague .
Moreover , would this novel disease condemn many people in the prime of life to major lung problems from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who knows ?
On the other hand , other estimates have been a 60 % infection rate before herd immunity kicks in .
The U.S. has been shamefully behind in testing capacity , but we have immense resources to catch up with .
For example , a couple of days ago , I heard 4th hand that a lady had made her own COVID-19 PCR test to test her kids and their friends on her block .
Granted , she works on CRISPR bioengineering projects , but still … Similarly , the immensely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ venture that is home , among much else , to the famous paleogenomics lab of David Reich and Nick Patterson , will be processing a 1,000 COVID tests per day next week , and can ramp up to much more than that in the future .
I ’ m a huge fan of paleogenomics , but I can live without new papers on the subject for the next year or so if these world class brains devote themselves to The Effort for The Duration .
The good news about school closures is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fiasco , we can just extend the school year into summer vacation .
While a lot of businesses are likely to default on debts due to lockdowns , the only U.S. students likely to be permanently greatly hurt are high school seniors on the verge of not graduating who have been slacking off so far this semester but who would do just enough in the second half of their final semester to graduate .
For high school seniors who have already applied to college , this semester is trivial .
In contrast , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newly unemployed are in danger of suffering severe consequences due to default provisions on loans .
So my impression is that schools are safer to engage in an abundance of caution with than businesses .
But your impressions may differ .
The UK just shut its schools , although health care workers can still drop their kids off at school as daycare , which seems wise .
It could be that shutting schools is an over-reaction due to the unusual age profile of this virus , but … schools get shut down all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ snow days , smoke days , etc .
It ’ s not the end of the world .
Good students will study online and bad students won ’ t , much like in the classrooms .
Of course , the exact age-profile of who is at risk is even more uncertain than the overall death rate .
Look here , Jack , we are the United States of America , the most kick-ass country ever .
Running a scientifically valid random sample survey is not beyond our national capabilities .
So …

From STAT:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data By JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS MARCH 17, 2020
Ioannidis is the highly respected Stanford epidemiologist / statistician whose 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” has been immensely influential on what is now known as the Replication Crisis.
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco. At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact. Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm? Vaccines or affordable treatments take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. Given such timelines, the consequences of long-term lockdowns are entirely unknown. The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.
Emil O W Kirkegaard asks: “Why don’t they do random sampling tests for Corona? Same as they do polls for elections. Do them every day, 1000 representative people. Why not? Surely, the governments of the world can figure out how to do random sampling and get those 1000 tests done.”
Every day in my neighborhood, for example, there are lots of families out on the sidewalks during the day. People are carrying on cheerful conversations from 10 feet apart. Community feeling is strong. Publicize on neighborhood websites like Nextdoor.com that an official survey will be done by testers in white coats walking door to door on Saturday. They’ll do the test on your front porch without coming into your house. Each survey person was tested on Friday and proved negative. You could quickly get a local fairly random sample (say 10 people in each of 100 neighborhoods — or do we need 10,000 people?
It could be that the virus is more widespread than assumed, which would suggest the death rate is lower. Or it could be that it’s still rare, which would be useful to know.
Let’s make this random testing happen.
Here’s computer guru Danny Hillis saying the same thing.
Let’s test in the Seattle area this weekend. Seattle is not lacking in high-profile billionaires, such as Gates, Bezos, or Schulz, who can write a check to cover it.
We can do this.
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future. The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher. Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).
Perhaps. Or it could turn out that the Diamond Princess was a fortuitous environment and an Italian scenario is more common. Or it could turn out that one of these new treatments works and the death rate a month from now is even lower. Or many other possibilities. At this point, the future is unwritten.
A big issue is what we might call Data Hygiene. For example, Italy has a high death rate while, so far, Germany has a low death rate. Is that due to actual differences or due to methodological differences in how numbers are reported? I don’t have a clue, but somebody out there has a clue, so we should listen to them.
… Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
1% case fatality rate of 60% infected is about 2 million deaths.
On the other hand, another way to measure this is years lost. For example, I’m 61. I don’t have all that many years left, and I’ve enjoyed a fine life. It’s not that big of a tragedy if this thing takes me down. (On the other hand, personally speaking, I’m very much against that outcome, so I’m washing/sanitizing my hands 60 times per day and turning on and off light switches with my elbow.)
If this is only going to kill or maim us old folks, well, that’s not so bad. But … how much statistical confidence we can have in the age structure of the effects is vague. Moreover, would this novel disease condemn many people in the prime of life to major lung problems from this point onward? At present, who knows?
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. … … If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.”
On the other hand, other estimates have been a 60% infection rate before herd immunity kicks in.
It’s hard to say.
Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop? The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.
Let’s get that information.
The U.S. has been shamefully behind in testing capacity, but we have immense resources to catch up with.
For example, a couple of days ago, I heard 4th hand that a lady had made her own COVID-19 PCR test to test her kids and their friends on her block. Granted, she works on CRISPR bioengineering projects, but still …
Similarly, the immensely well-funded Broad Institute, a Harvard-MIT joint venture that is home, among much else, to the famous paleogenomics lab of David Reich and Nick Patterson, will be processing a 1,000 COVID tests per day next week, and can ramp up to much more than that in the future. I’m a huge fan of paleogenomics, but I can live without new papers on the subject for the next year or so if these world-class brains devote themselves to The Effort for The Duration.
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease.
The good news about school closures is that if this turns out to be a fiasco, we can just extend the school year into summer vacation. While a lot of businesses are likely to default on debts due to lockdowns, the only U.S. students likely to be permanently greatly hurt are high school seniors on the verge of not graduating who have been slacking off so far this semester but who would do just enough in the second half of their final semester to graduate. For high school seniors who have already applied to college, this semester is trivial.
In contrast, businesses, the self-employed, and the newly unemployed are in danger of suffering severe consequences due to default provisions on loans. So my impression is that schools are safer to engage in an abundance of caution with than businesses. But your impressions may differ.
This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open, at least until as I write this.
The UK just shut its schools, although health care workers can still drop their kids off at school as daycare, which seems wise.
It could be that shutting schools is an overreaction due to the unusual age profile of this virus, but… schools get shut down all the time: for teacher strikes, snow days, smoke days, etc. It’s not the end of the world. Good students will study online and bad students won’t, much like in the classrooms.
Of course, the exact age-profile of who is at risk is even more uncertain than the overall death rate.
In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic. Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound — in theory. A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment. Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated.
Indeed.
If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.
Indeed.
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
Indeed.
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
Which was bad.
The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.
We hope.
Look here, Jack, we are the United States of America, the most kick-ass country ever. Running a scientifically valid random sample survey is not beyond our national capabilities. So …
LET’S GET THE DATA.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-19--Japan vs. Italy: Japan Doing It Better

Japan vs. Italy: Japan Doing It Better

Why has Italy ( 60 million people , median age 46 ) had almost two orders of magnitude more deaths than Japan ( 126 million people , median age 48 ) ?
Similarly , why has Northern Europe had a lower death rate per case than Latin Europe ( Italy , Spain , and now France ) ?
Worldometer is one of the more popular scoreboards for tracking coronavirus cases by country .
One concern is that obscure methodological issues might be getting in the way of making apples to apples comparisons between countries .
Who knows how precisely all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Maybe Northern Europeans are more introverted than Southern Europeans , so there has been less community spread ?
Might explain how Japan has ( so far ) sidestepped the worst of it : they notoriously live more virtually from their rooms , whereas Italians live more in the streets and cafes .
The Japanese tend to need to get drunk to be super-sociable , while Italians don ’ t .
One test case of this will be Finland , which hasn ’ t been too hard hit so far .
We will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Italian or Japanese trajectory .

Why has Italy (60 million people, median age 46) had almost two orders of magnitude more deaths than Japan (126 million people, median age 48)?
I don’t know.
Similarly, why has Northern Europe had a lower death rate per case than Latin Europe (Italy, Spain, and now France)?
A really clear North vs South picture is emerging in Europe.
North (including Ireland) has low death/ICU rates.
South (including France) has high death/ICU rates.
UK/USA are inbetween.
This might be down to testing, but I wouldn't say it's the only reason. pic.twitter.com/MwxcPjhXIn — David W. Higgins (@higginsdavidw) March 18, 2020
Worldometer is one of the more popular scoreboards for tracking coronavirus cases by country. One concern is that obscure methodological issues might be getting in the way of making apples to apples comparisons between countries. Who knows how precisely all these different countries count cases and deaths?
Maybe Northern Europeans are more introverted than Southern Europeans, so there has been less community spread?
Might explain how Japan has (so far) sidestepped the worst of it: they notoriously live more virtually from their rooms, whereas Italians live more in the streets and cafes. The Japanese tend to need to get drunk to be super-sociable, while Italians don’t.
One test case of this will be Finland, which hasn’t been too hard hit so far. We will see whether it plays out more on the Italian or Japanese trajectory.
Suggestions include: Italians kiss, Americans shake hands, Japanese bow.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-19--THE CAMP OF THE SAINTS Flash Sale - Update (and THANK YOU!)

Thank you to everyone who participated in our The Camp of the Saints Flash Sale last week !
We 're @ @ @ @ @ ) by the sheer number of requests we received .
Within 24 hours of sending @ @ @ @ @ found ourselves digging in the back closet for the last cases .
We then moved @ @ @ @ @ VDARE Editor Peter Brimelow who is now surfacing for air after signing .
: ) @ @ @ @ @ thank you for your patience !
The last will be filled shortly !

Thank you to everyone who participated in our Camp of the Saints Flash Sale last week! We're delighted (and slightly overwhelmed) by the sheer number of requests we received.
Within 24 hours of sending the email announcement, we found ourselves digging in the back closet for the last cases. We then moved those cases out and buried VDARE Editor Peter Brimelow, who is now surfacing for air after signing. : ) To everyone still waiting, thank you for your patience! The last will be filled shortly!


vdare--2020-03-18--A Patriot Lawyer Congratulates Mike DeWine For Taking "Andrew Jackson Option", Defying Judge

There has been extensive media coverage with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic , and it is difficult to predict all of the political , economic , and social ramifications .
VDARE.com has published a few articles indicating that this could be the end of open borders .
That is a possibility , but this could also signify the beginning of the end of judicial tyranny .
was recently ordered by a Democratic Judge in Franklin County , Ohio not to postpone the primary election .
Governor Mike did it anyway .
[ Ohio Governor Mikewas recently ordered by a Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to postpone the primary election .
Governor Mikedid it anyway .
[ CHAOS : Ohio Gov DEFIES Court Ruling That Primary Must Go on , Orders Polls CLOSED on Tuesday [ UPDATED ] , by Paula Bolyard , PJMedia , March 16 , 2020 ] Overall , Governor has received positive coverage for his handling of the crisis .
This is a tremendous development .
Governor just deliberately disobeyed a order from the judiciary , and suffered no apparent political consequences .
This incident should embolden other GOP elected officials .
See earlier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fulford writes : For readers who have forgotten , President Trump ’ s hero , Andrew Jackson is the man who is supposed to have said , when a Supreme Court decision did n't go his way [ Chief Justice ] `` John Marshall has made his decision ; now let him enforce it !
`` .

From: Fabrizio Evola [Email him]
There has been extensive media coverage with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic , and it is difficult to predict all of the political, economic, and social ramifications. VDARE.com has published a few articles indicating that this could be the end of open borders . That is a possibility, but this could also signify the beginning of the end of judicial tyranny.
DeWine was recently ordered by a Democratic Judge in Franklin County, Ohio not to postpone the primary election. Governor Mike DeWine did it anyway. [ Ohio Governor Mikewas recently ordered by a Democratic Judge in Franklin County, Ohio not to postpone the primary election. Governor Mikedid it anyway. [ CHAOS: Ohio Gov DEFIES Court Ruling That Primary Must Go on, Orders Polls CLOSED on Tuesday [UPDATED], by Paula Bolyard, PJMedia, March 16, 2020]
Overall, Governor DeWine has received positive coverage for his handling of the crisis. This is a tremendous development. Governor DeWine just deliberately disobeyed a order from the judiciary, and suffered no apparent political consequences. This incident should embolden other GOP elected officials.
See earlier letters from the same reader.
James Fulford writes: For readers who have forgotten, President Trump’s hero, Andrew Jackson is the man who is supposed to have said, when a Supreme Court decision didn't go his way [Chief Justice] "John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it!".


vdare--2020-03-18--The Truth Is Out There: National  Center for Health Statistics Has Racial Breakdown On Coronavirus D

The Truth Is Out There: National  Center for Health Statistics Has Racial Breakdown On Coronavirus Deaths. Will They Release It?

Death Certificates are uniform throughout the US .
To see the uniform death certificate , [ PDF ] go to the NCHS website .
Race , ethnicity , place of birth .
.
.
and most important is cause of death .
`` Death certificates are generally completed by funeral directors , attending physicians , medical examiners , and coroners '' according to the NCHS .
The final national data comes out a year or two after the year involved .
Nevertheless , the death data is being sent to the NCHS regularly .
The most recent `` Leading Causes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The leading cause of death is heart disease except for Asians and Hispanics , it is `` malignant neoplasms `` —NCHS speak for cancer .
`` Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis '' is the 11th most common cause of death among non-Hispanic whites and the 5th leading cause of death among `` Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native '' .
Assault ( Homocide ) is the 20th leading cause of death among Non-Hispanic whites and the 7th leading cause of death among Non-Hispanic blacks .
For those under the age of 44 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death with the male rate higher than the female rate .
We can feel confident that the numbers are being collected as we are getting daily updates in the press .
Medical information is confidential as it applies to the individual but it is a public record as it applies to national data .
I feel confident that the information is going to the states and Feds .
I am not confident that there will be discussion of differential data about races .

Death certificates are issued at the local level by counties which transmit the information to states which transmit the information to the National Center for Health Statistics. The NCHS is a division of the Centers for Disease Control.
Death Certificates are uniform throughout the US. To see the uniform death certificate, [ PDF ] go to the NCHS website. Race, ethnicity, place of birth. . . and most important is cause of death. "Death certificates are generally completed by funeral directors, attending physicians, medical examiners, and coroners" according to the NCHS.
The final national data comes out a year or two after the year involved. Nevertheless, the death data is being sent to the NCHS regularly.
They have a website here.
"Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis" is the 11th most common cause of death among non-Hispanic whites and the 5th leading cause of death among "Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native." Assault (Homocide) is the 20th leading cause of death among Non-Hispanic whites and the 7th leading cause of death among Non-Hispanic blacks.
For those under the age of 44, accidents were the most common cause of death with the male rate higher than the female rate.
We can feel confident that the numbers are being collected as we are getting daily updates in the press. Medical information is confidential as it applies to the individual but it is a public record as it applies to national data. I feel confident that the information is going to the states and Feds. I am not confident that there will be discussion of differential data about races.


vdare--2020-03-18--Heather Mac Donald Questions the Media’s Coronavirus Narrative

Like a number of other people , Heather Mac Donald has expressed doubts about how the coronavirus story is playing out in the press : the media volume is turned up to high without a corresponding level of factual analysis .
Sadly , the New York Times missed her in Wednesday ’ s article scolding disbelievers of the approved narrative , From Jerry Falwell Jr. to Dr. Drew : 5 Coronavirus Doubters—maybe the NYTimes will get her next go-round !
Mac Donald recognizes the threat to public health , but her reaction is Compared to what ?
in a March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boils down to numbers — she sees an “ unbridled panic ” in America over several dozen deaths , 41 at her writing , while there were 34,200 flu deaths in the US during the 2018–19 influenza season .
( And there were 61,000 flu fatalities the year before that . )
Mac Donald also notes the 38,800 traffic fatalities in the United States last year , but observes , “ Shutting down highways would have a much more positive effect on the U.S. mortality rate than shutting down the U.S. economy to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus.
” She discussed the issues with radio host Larry O ’ Connor on March 16 : Compared to what ?
by Heather Mac Donald , New Criterion , March 13 , 2020 On the misguided response to covid-19 .
Compared to what ?
That should be the question that every fear-mongering news story on the coronavirus has to start with .
So far , the United States has seen forty-one deaths from the infection .
Twenty-two of those deaths occurred in one poorly run nursing home outside of Seattle , the Life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the rest of Washington state , leaving ten deaths ( four in California , two in Florida , and one in each of Georgia , Kansas , New Jersey , and South Dakota ) spread throughout the rest of the approximately 329 million residents of the United States .
This represents roughly .000012 percent of the U.S. population .
Much has been made of the “ exponential ” rate of infection in European and Asian countries—as if the spread of all transmittable diseases did not develop along geometric , as opposed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matters is whether or not the growing “ pandemic ” overwhelms our ability to ensure the well-being of U.S. residents with efficiency and precision .
But fear of the disease , and not the disease itself , has already spoiled that for us .
Even if my odds of dying from coronavirus should suddenly jump ten-thousand-fold , from the current rate of .000012 percent across the U.S. population all the way up to .12 percent , I ’ d happily take those odds over the destruction being wrought on the U.S. and global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comparison , there were 38,800 traffic fatalities in the United States in 2019 , the National Safety Council estimates .
That represents an average of over one hundred traffic deaths every day ; if the press catalogued these in as much painstaking detail as they have deaths from coronavirus , highways nationwide would be as empty as New York subways are now .
Even assuming that coronavirus deaths in the United States increase by a factor of one thousand over the year , the resulting deaths would only outnumber annual traffic deaths by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a much more positive effect on the U.S. mortality rate than shutting down the U.S. economy to try to prevent the spread of the virus .
There have been 5,123 deaths worldwide so far—also a fraction of traffic deaths worldwide .
And unlike coronavirus , driving kills indiscriminately , mowing down the young and the old , the sick and the healthy .
The coronavirus , by comparison , is targeted in its lethality , overwhelmingly striking the elderly or the already severely sick .
As of Monday , approximately 89 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the age of seventy , according to The Wall Street Journal .
Sad to say , those victims were already nearing the end of their lifespans .
They might have soon died from another illness .
No child under the age of nine has died from the illness worldwide .
In China , only one individual in the ten-to-nineteen age group has succumbed .
Comparing the relative value of lives makes for grisly calculus , but one is forced to ask : are we missing the forest for the trees ?
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vulnerable few end up exposing them , along with the rest of society , to even more damaging risks—was it worth the cost ?
An example : there were 34,200 deaths in the United States during the 2018–19 influenza season , estimates the cdc .
We did not shut down public events and institutions to try to slow the spread of the flu .
Yet we have already destroyed $ 5 trillion in stock market wealth over the last few weeks in the growing coronavirus panic , reports The New York Times , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The number of cases in most afflicted countries is paltry .
As of today , 127 countries had reported some cases , but forty-eight of those countries had fewer than ten cases , according to Worldometer .
At this point , more people have recovered from the virus than are still sick .
But the damage to people ’ s livelihoods through the resulting economic contraction is real and widespread .
Its health consequences will be more severe than those of the coronavirus , as Steve Malanga shows in City Journal .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs will be the hardest hit by the assault on tourism .
Small entrepreneurs , whether in manufacturing or the service sector , will struggle to stay afloat .
Such unjustified , unpredicted economic havoc undermines government legitimacy .
( Continues )

Like a number of other people, Heather Mac Donald has expressed doubts about how the coronavirus story is playing out in the press: the media volume is turned up to high without a corresponding level of factual analysis.
Sadly, the New York Times missed her in Wednesday’s article scolding disbelievers of the approved narrative, From Jerry Falwell Jr. to Dr. Drew: 5 Coronavirus Doubters—maybe the NYTimes will get her next go-round!
Mac Donald recognizes the threat to public health, but her reaction is Compared to what? in a March 13 article explaining her disquiet.
It boils down to numbers — she sees an “unbridled panic” in America over several dozen deaths, 41 at her writing, while there were 34,200 flu deaths in the US during the 2018–19 influenza season. (And there were 61,000 flu fatalities the year before that.)
Mac Donald also notes the 38,800 traffic fatalities in the United States last year, but observes, “Shutting down highways would have a much more positive effect on the U.S. mortality rate than shutting down the U.S. economy to try to prevent the spread of the virus.”
She discussed the issues with radio host Larry O’Connor on March 16:
Here’s the original article:
Compared to what? by Heather Mac Donald, New Criterion, March 13, 2020
On the misguided response to covid-19.
Compared to what? That should be the question that every fear-mongering news story on the coronavirus has to start with. So far, the United States has seen forty-one deaths from the infection. Twenty-two of those deaths occurred in one poorly run nursing home outside of Seattle, the Life Care Center. Another nine deaths occurred in the rest of Washington state, leaving ten deaths (four in California, two in Florida, and one in each of Georgia, Kansas, New Jersey, and South Dakota) spread throughout the rest of the approximately 329 million residents of the United States. This represents roughly .000012 percent of the U.S. population.
Much has been made of the “exponential” rate of infection in European and Asian countries—as if the spread of all transmittable diseases did not develop along geometric, as opposed to arithmetic, growth patterns. What actually matters is whether or not the growing “pandemic” overwhelms our ability to ensure the well-being of U.S. residents with efficiency and precision. But fear of the disease, and not the disease itself, has already spoiled that for us. Even if my odds of dying from coronavirus should suddenly jump ten-thousand-fold, from the current rate of .000012 percent across the U.S. population all the way up to .12 percent, I’d happily take those odds over the destruction being wrought on the U.S. and global economy from this unbridled panic.
By comparison, there were 38,800 traffic fatalities in the United States in 2019, the National Safety Council estimates. That represents an average of over one hundred traffic deaths every day; if the press catalogued these in as much painstaking detail as they have deaths from coronavirus, highways nationwide would be as empty as New York subways are now. Even assuming that coronavirus deaths in the United States increase by a factor of one thousand over the year, the resulting deaths would only outnumber annual traffic deaths by 2,200. Shutting down highways would have a much more positive effect on the U.S. mortality rate than shutting down the U.S. economy to try to prevent the spread of the virus.
There have been 5,123 deaths worldwide so far—also a fraction of traffic deaths worldwide. And unlike coronavirus, driving kills indiscriminately, mowing down the young and the old, the sick and the healthy. The coronavirus, by comparison, is targeted in its lethality, overwhelmingly striking the elderly or the already severely sick. As of Monday, approximately 89 percent of Italy’s coronavirus deaths had been over the age of seventy, according to The Wall Street Journal. Sad to say, those victims were already nearing the end of their lifespans. They might have soon died from another illness. No child under the age of nine has died from the illness worldwide. In China, only one individual in the ten-to-nineteen age group has succumbed.
Comparing the relative value of lives makes for grisly calculus, but one is forced to ask: are we missing the forest for the trees? If the measures we undertake to protect a vulnerable few end up exposing them, along with the rest of society, to even more damaging risks—was it worth the cost?
An example: there were 34,200 deaths in the United States during the 2018–19 influenza season, estimates the cdc. We did not shut down public events and institutions to try to slow the spread of the flu. Yet we have already destroyed $5 trillion in stock market wealth over the last few weeks in the growing coronavirus panic, reports The New York Times, wiping out retirement savings for many.
The number of cases in most afflicted countries is paltry. As of today, 127 countries had reported some cases, but forty-eight of those countries had fewer than ten cases, according to Worldometer. At this point, more people have recovered from the virus than are still sick. But the damage to people’s livelihoods through the resulting economic contraction is real and widespread. Its health consequences will be more severe than those of the coronavirus, as Steve Malanga shows in City Journal. The people who can least afford to lose jobs will be the hardest hit by the assault on tourism. Small entrepreneurs, whether in manufacturing or the service sector, will struggle to stay afloat. Such unjustified, unpredicted economic havoc undermines government legitimacy. (Continues)


vdare--2020-03-19--Coronavirus Transmission: Once Again, The Skier Menace

The Austrian ski town that spread coronavirus across the Continent By the time local officials realized the extent of the outbreak , the damage was done .
The lively après-ski scene that draws millions to Ischgl every winter proved to be a perfect incubator for coronavirus A popular ditty among the Alpine party-set celebrates the Tyrolean village of Ischgl as a “ white winter ’ s dream.
” For recent visitors , the town has become something more akin to a prolonged nightmare .
The lively après-ski scene that draws millions to the town every winter proved to be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the most coed sports , so it goes along with up close and personal socializing .
By the time Austrian officials realized the extent of the outbreak , the damage was done .
Health authorities across Scandinavia have traced several hundred cases to Ischgl .
On Tuesday , Norway said nearly 40 percent of the more than 1,400 infections in the country originated in Austria .
National authorities believe hundreds of additional cases in both Austria and Germany are connected directly to Ischgl .
Seriously , I ’ ve been harping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 ” being a high-risk category for infections not because I hate skiers ( I was one a long time ago ) , but because knowledge is good .
For example , having gone skiing in February or March would be helpful in assessing whether to use a ( still too rare ) coronavirus test on a patient .
It would also be helpful to let people begin some longer range planning to get the word out there that Northern Hemisphere ski resorts will definitely not reopen in what ’ s left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably won ’ t open for the 2020-2021 ski , unless there is some very good news with the virus petering out .
The ski industry needs to begin planning how to make their facilities safer .
The high rate of infections among skiers has implications for how , precisely , the virus is most often transmitted .
I ’ m thinking that runny noses due to cold temperatures are a big problem .
Maybe instead of blowing noses into a paper tissue , you should blow your nose into a disinfecting wipe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to rank activities from most risky to least risky : e.g.
, from dropping by your local wet mart for some fresh bat-and-pangolin stir fry to , say , flagpole-sitting .
Sadly , it looks like skiing will be , for awhile , at the most risky end , but other activities are not .

From Politico Europe:
The Austrian ski town that spread coronavirus across the Continent By the time local officials realized the extent of the outbreak, the damage was done. By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG 3/19/20 The lively après-ski scene that draws millions to Ischgl every winter proved to be a perfect incubator for coronavirus A popular ditty among the Alpine party-set celebrates the Tyrolean village of Ischgl as a “white winter’s dream.” For recent visitors, the town has become something more akin to a prolonged nightmare. The lively après-ski scene that draws millions to the town every winter proved to be a perfect incubator for coronavirus.
Skiing is one of the most coed sports, so it goes along with up close and personal socializing.
Authorities believe that busloads of European visitors departed the village known as the “Ibiza of the Alps” (and not in a good way) in late February, leaving with more than the usual mountain tan and hangover.
By the time Austrian officials realized the extent of the outbreak, the damage was done. Health authorities across Scandinavia have traced several hundred cases to Ischgl. On Tuesday, Norway said nearly 40 percent of the more than 1,400 infections in the country originated in Austria. National authorities believe hundreds of additional cases in both Austria and Germany are connected directly to Ischgl.
iSteve commenter Blah Blah Blah Blah writes:
Steve, I find your stigmatization of skiers to be problematic. This is not the time for skiphobia masquerading as concern over public health. ANYBODY can get coronavirus, not just skiers.
Indeed.
Seriously, I’ve been harping about “people who have gone skiing in 2020” being a high-risk category for infections not because I hate skiers (I was one a long time ago), but because knowledge is good.
For example, having gone skiing in February or March would be helpful in assessing whether to use a (still too rare) coronavirus test on a patient.
It would also be helpful to let people begin some longer range planning to get the word out there that Northern Hemisphere ski resorts will definitely not reopen in what’s left of the 2019-2020 ski season, and probably won’t open for the 2020-2021 ski, unless there is some very good news with the virus petering out. The ski industry needs to begin planning how to make their facilities safer.
The high rate of infections among skiers has implications for how, precisely, the virus is most often transmitted. I’m thinking that runny noses due to cold temperatures are a big problem. Maybe instead of blowing noses into a paper tissue, you should blow your nose into a disinfecting wipe?
To speed reopening the economy we need to rank activities from most risky to least risky: e.g., from dropping by your local wet mart for some fresh bat-and-pangolin stir fry to, say, flagpole-sitting. Sadly, it looks like skiing will be, for awhile, at the most risky end, but other activities are not.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-19--Mass Testing in Italian Town Halts Spread

Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there A study in Vò , which saw Italy ’ s first death , points to the danger of asymptomatic carriers The small town of Vò , in northern Italy , where the first coronavirus death occurred in the country , has become a case study that demonstrates how scientists might neutralise the spread of Covid-19 .
A scientific study , rolled out by the University of Padua , with the help of the Veneto Region and the Red Cross , consisted of testing all 3,300 inhabitants of the town @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was to study the natural history of the virus , the transmission dynamics and the categories at risk .
The researchers explained they had tested the inhabitants twice and that the study led to the discovery of the decisive role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic of asymptomatic people .
When the study began , on 6 March , there were at least 90 infected in Vò .
For days now , there have been no new cases .
“ We were able to contain the outbreak here , because we identified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and isolated them , ” Andrea Crisanti , an infections expert at Imperial College London , who took part in the Vò project , told the Financial Times .
“ That is what makes the difference.
” The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19 .
‘ ‘ If these people had not been discovered , ” said the researchers , they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants .
“ The percentage of infected people , even if asymptomatic , in the population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Romagnani , professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence , in a letter to the authorities .
“ The isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease .
”

From The Guardian:
Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there
A study in Vò, which saw Italy’s first death, points to the danger of asymptomatic carriers
Lorenzo Tondo in Palermo @lorenzo_tondo Wed 18 Mar 2020 16.30 EDT
The small town of Vò, in northern Italy, where the first coronavirus death occurred in the country, has become a case study that demonstrates how scientists might neutralise the spread of Covid-19.
A scientific study, rolled out by the University of Padua, with the help of the Veneto Region and the Red Cross, consisted of testing all 3,300 inhabitants of the town, including asymptomatic people. The goal was to study the natural history of the virus, the transmission dynamics and the categories at risk.
The researchers explained they had tested the inhabitants twice and that the study led to the discovery of the decisive role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic of asymptomatic people.
When the study began, on 6 March, there were at least 90 infected in Vò. For days now, there have been no new cases.
“We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project, told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.”
The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants.
“The percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, in a letter to the authorities. “The isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease.”


vdare--2020-03-19--#ICESVU Brings Back The Obama Regime Administrative Amnesty In Honor Of Coronavirus. Why?

ICE SVU has decided to let a crisis go to waste .
Instead , it has decided to reimpose the Obama Regime Administrative Amnesty and the Morton Memos , which were ostensibly about changing enforcement priorities by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement ( ICE ) .
The memorandum by then-ICE head John Morton stated that ICE will only arrest certain , but not all , criminal aliens , i.e .
legal and illegal aliens who have been convicted of a crime that makes them deportable .
All other illegal aliens are of the table .
This is part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Dirty 19 ( HSI SAC 's who signed an anti-immigration enforcement letter ) are undoubted overjoyed , no more work-site enforcement or other immigration arrests .
The 500 ICE SVU agents assigned to help roundups in Sanctuary Cities are probably already celebrating not having to do any work .
It is all sound and fury signifying nothing , or boob bait for bubbas , choose your analogy , all to fool the American people that our immigration laws were being enforced .
It was an administrative amnesty and the return of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To ensure the welfare and safety of the general public as well as officers and agents in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic response , U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement ( ICE ) will temporarily adjust its enforcement posture beginning today , March 18 , 2020 .
ICE ’ s highest priorities are to promote life-saving and public safety activities .
ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations ( ERO ) will focus enforcement on public safety risks and individuals subject to mandatory detention based on criminal grounds .
For those individuals who do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exercise discretion to delay enforcement actions until after the crisis or utilize alternatives to detention , as appropriate .
Discretion means no more arrests .
And there will be no work-site enforcement by ICE SVU , also known as Homeland Security Investigations .
Note neither work-site enforcement nor immigration benefit fraud will be investigated or arrests made .
How did this get by Ken The Knife ?
This is bad , as there will be tremendous pressure to never get back to the rather modest increase in immigration enforcement .
Worse yet , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is only killing the very old and those with preexisting serious medical conditions , mostly respiratory conditions .
My position is that the China Virus is being deliberately pushed and a panic encouraged to remove President Trump and end immigration enforcement .
More than 99 % of Italy ’ s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions , according to a study by the country ’ s national health authority .
After deaths from the virus reached more than 2,500 , with a 150 % increase in the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through data to provide clues to help combat the spread of the disease .
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ’ s government is evaluating whether to extend a nationwide lockdown beyond the beginning of April , daily La Stampa reported Wednesday .
Italy has more than 31,500 confirmed cases of the illness .
[ 99 % of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness , Italy Says , By Tommaso Ebhardt , Chiara Remondini , and Marco Bertacche , Bloomberg , March 18 , 2020 ] And it is only the old as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There is no need for the panic and economic collapse .
And the cry for ending enforcement was quite open .
Who acquiesced to this lobbying by the illegal alien lobby ?
Chad Wolf ?
Who runs DHS , the illegal alien lobby ?
The New John Morton , or New LadyboyDACA , Chad Wolf Here 's an example of the cry for non-enforcement , based on the claim that somehow it will make the China Virus worse : Second , fear of immigration enforcement may deter immigrants from seeking health care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Under guidelines from Immigration and Customs Enforcement ( ICE ) , health care settings are “ sensitive zones ” in which enforcement actions should not normally be conducted .
Even so , since President Trump took office there have been highly publicized cases of individuals being detained by immigration agents on their way to seeking care .
As a result , many undocumented immigrants have forgone medical appointments .
In an epidemic , that can have dire consequences for public health as those who are undiagnosed and untreated are particularly likely to spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Immigration Policies Will Make The Coronavirus Pandemic Worse , By Wendy E. Parmet , Stat News , March 4 , 2020 ] It is almost as if this was planned all along .
More likely , of course , is that Trump opponents are following Rahm Emmanuel ’ s advice , never let a crisis go to waste .
Well , the Democrats , Open Borders Advocates , and nation busters are taking advantage .
Why is President Trump allowing this ?
Where is Ken The Knife ?

ICE SVU has decided to let a crisis go to waste. Instead, it has decided to reimpose the Obama Regime Administrative Amnesty and the Morton Memos, which were ostensibly about changing enforcement priorities by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The memorandum by then-ICE head John Morton stated that ICE will only arrest certain, but not all, criminal aliens, i.e., legal and illegal aliens who have been convicted of a crime that makes them deportable. All other illegal aliens are of the table.
This is part of the Deep State Resistance to enforcing immigration law. The Dirty 19 (HSI SAC's who signed an anti-immigration enforcement letter) are undoubted overjoyed, no more work-site enforcement or other immigration arrests. The 500 ICE SVU agents assigned to help roundups in Sanctuary Cities are probably already celebrating not having to do any work. It is all sound and fury signifying nothing, or boob bait for bubbas, choose your analogy, all to fool the American people that our immigration laws were being enforced. It was an administrative amnesty and the return of catch-and-release.
And it is back:
To ensure the welfare and safety of the general public as well as officers and agents in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic response, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will temporarily adjust its enforcement posture beginning today, March 18, 2020. ICE’s highest priorities are to promote life-saving and public safety activities. ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) will focus enforcement on public safety risks and individuals subject to mandatory detention based on criminal grounds. For those individuals who do not fall into those categories, ERO will exercise discretion to delay enforcement actions until after the crisis or utilize alternatives to detention, as appropriate. [Updated ICE statement on COVID-19, ICE Press Release, March 18, 2020]
Discretion means no more arrests. And there will be no work-site enforcement by ICE SVU, also known as Homeland Security Investigations.
Homeland Security Investigations will continue to carry out mission critical criminal investigations and enforcement operations as determined necessary to maintain public safety and national security. Examples include investigations into child exploitation, gangs, narcotics trafficking, human trafficking, human smuggling, and continued participation on the Joint Terrorism Task Force.
Note neither work-site enforcement nor immigration benefit fraud will be investigated or arrests made. How did this get by Ken The Knife? This is bad, as there will be tremendous pressure to never get back to the rather modest increase in immigration enforcement.
Worse yet, this is all about the China Virus that is only killing the very old and those with preexisting serious medical conditions, mostly respiratory conditions. My position is that the China Virus is being deliberately pushed and a panic encouraged to remove President Trump and end immigration enforcement.
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority. After deaths from the virus reached more than 2,500, with a 150% increase in the past week, health authorities have been combing through data to provide clues to help combat the spread of the disease. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is evaluating whether to extend a nationwide lockdown beyond the beginning of April, daily La Stampa reported Wednesday. Italy has more than 31,500 confirmed cases of the illness. [99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says, by Tommaso Ebhardt, Chiara Remondini, and Marco Bertacche, Bloomberg, March 18, 2020]
And it is only the old as well as already sick who are dying. There is no need for the panic and economic collapse.
The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.
And the cry for ending enforcement was quite open. Who acquiesced to this lobbying by the illegal alien lobby? Chad Wolf? Who runs DHS, the illegal alien lobby?
The New John Morton, or New LadyboyDACA, Chad Wolf
Here's an example of the cry for non-enforcement, based on the claim that somehow it will make the China Virus worse: Second, fear of immigration enforcement may deter immigrants from seeking health care or working with public health authorities. Under guidelines from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), health care settings are “sensitive zones” in which enforcement actions should not normally be conducted. Even so, since President Trump took office there have been highly publicized cases of individuals being detained by immigration agents on their way to seeking care. As a result, many undocumented immigrants have forgone medical appointments. In an epidemic, that can have dire consequences for public health as those who are undiagnosed and untreated are particularly likely to spread the infection. [Trump’s Immigration Policies Will Make The Coronavirus Pandemic Worse, by Wendy E. Parmet, Stat News, March 4, 2020]
It is almost as if this was planned all along. More likely, of course, is that Trump opponents are following Rahm Emmanuel’s advice, never let a crisis go to waste. Well, the Democrats, Open Borders Advocates, and nation busters are taking advantage.
Why is President Trump allowing this? Where is Ken The Knife?


vdare--2020-03-20--"Ohio" Doctor Accused Of Rape Would Be "Indian" Doctor If Victim Of Alleged Of Hate Crime

So are we to believe that Manish Gupta , an Indian unhappily ( for America ) born in Troy , @ @ @ @ @ Ohio '' doctor in the same sense that Taft , Hayes , Grant , Garfield @ @ @ @ @ and the Harrisons were `` Ohio '' presidents ?
Well , if he were the @ @ @ @ @ crime , he would , of course , be an `` Indian Doctor '' in @ @ @ @ @ examples of the benefits of medical diversity :

This was the recent headline about rape suspect Manish Gupta at Fox News: " Ohio plastic surgeon charged with drugging, raping women on camera ."
So are we to believe that Manish Gupta, an Indian unhappily (for America) born in Troy, Mich. , is an "Ohio" doctor in the same sense that Taft, Hayes, Grant, Garfield, Harding, McKinley, and the Harrisons were "Ohio" presidents?
Well, if he were the alleged victim of a hate crime, he would, of course, be an "Indian Doctor" in any headline.
Some earlier examples of the benefits of medical diversity:


vdare--2020-03-20--Greg Cochran vs. John Ioannidis On The Scale Of Coronavirus Threat

At West Hunter , Gregory Cochran responds to Stanford professor John Ioannidis ’ s article downplaying the potential scale of the pandemic : He emphasizes the cruise ship ( why ignore other whole countries ? )
and he distorts that example .
Most never caught it : of those that did , all had excellent medical care .
That ’ s no longer possible when many millions get infected – resources are limited .
He suggests a scenario in which 1 % of the population gets infected and 0.3 % of that 1 % die .
We are not seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or Korea , or Italy .
As for 1 % getting infected , where the fuck does that come from ?
When a new pathogen shows up , no-one is immune , and the only limiting factor ( barring intelligent human action ) is having enough contract it , recover , and develop immunity that the virus has trouble find vulnerable hosts .
The limit , in a simple model , is when R0 , multiplied by the fraction of never-infected people , is less than 1.0 .
Since R0 is something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at social distancing etc ) , that would require infection of 2/3ds of the population of the United States – with a death rate well above the 1 % we ’ re seeing in places like South Korea .
More like 4 % , or even higher .
Again , where in the name of God does this 1 % come from ?
Is Wuflu supposed to quit because he ’ s caught his limit ?
The Spanish flu had an R0 around 2.0 .
There had been an antigenically related flu around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vulnerable .
The percentage infected ranged up to 50 % – which , again , is approximately the limit predicted by the value of R0 .
When a pathogen is NOT novel , sure , you can have lower fractions of people vulnerable , because many people are already immune , and the fraction infected can be low .
If it depends upon some regionally varying vector , like mosquitoes , sure , it doesn ’ t have to sweep across the whole country .
If its R0 is only greater than 1.0 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case with HIV , it may spread only in those subpopulations .
But Wuflu IS novel , and does NOT depend upon a vector .
The vulnerable subpopulation is those that breathe .
So , the surprise-free prediction is that it hits > 50 % of the population – Unless we stop it .

At West Hunter, Gregory Cochran responds to Stanford professor John Ioannidis’s article downplaying the potential scale of the pandemic:
John Ioannidis
Posted on March 20, 2020 by gcochran9
He emphasizes the cruise ship (why ignore other whole countries?) and he distorts that example. Most never caught it: of those that did, all had excellent medical care. That’s no longer possible when many millions get infected – resources are limited.
He suggests a scenario in which 1% of the population gets infected and 0.3% of that 1% die.
We are not seeing that low level of fatality in China, or Korea, or Italy. As for 1% getting infected, where the fuck does that come from? When a new pathogen shows up, no-one is immune, and the only limiting factor (barring intelligent human action) is having enough contract it, recover, and develop immunity that the virus has trouble find vulnerable hosts. The limit, in a simple model, is when R0, multiplied by the fraction of never-infected people, is less than 1.0 . Since R0 is something like 3 (assuming no major efforts at social distancing etc), that would require infection of 2/3ds of the population of the United States – with a death rate well above the 1% we’re seeing in places like South Korea. More like 4%, or even higher.
Again, where in the name of God does this 1% come from? Is Wuflu supposed to quit because he’s caught his limit?
The Spanish flu had an R0 around 2.0. There had been an antigenically related flu around 1890, so older adults were less vulnerable. The percentage infected ranged up to 50% – which, again, is approximately the limit predicted by the value of R0.
When a pathogen is NOT novel, sure, you can have lower fractions of people vulnerable, because many people are already immune, and the fraction infected can be low. If it depends upon some regionally varying vector, like mosquitoes, sure, it doesn’t have to sweep across the whole country. If its R0 is only greater than 1.0 in some subpopulations, as was the case with HIV, it may spread only in those subpopulations.
But Wuflu IS novel, and does NOT depend upon a vector. The vulnerable subpopulation is those that breathe.
So, the surprise-free prediction is that it hits > 50% of the population –
Unless we stop it.


vdare--2020-03-20--Hope For Coronavirus Prevention, Cure, From Hydroxychloroquine

There is a lot of hope that various quinine-like anti-malarial drugs such as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine , which is commonly prescribed in the U.S. for rheumatoid arthritis , happen to both help heal COVID-19 patients and make them less contagious .
Anti-malaria drugs can have some nasty side effects : cinchonism and quinism .
But now we ’ ve got to gear up to produce and deliver these in bulk .
The FDA needs to resolve issues like : if a COVID-19 test isn ’ t available , should a patient with symptoms be prescribed the drugs anyway ?
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be able to find more such lucky interactions where people who are taking Pill X are less likely to be infected or to be hospitalized .
It used to be that Kaiser-Permanente was unusual in having all this data readily online for its patients , but I presume databases on which medicines all a care provider ’ s patients are taking are now common .
From the New York Times : With Minimal Evidence , Trump Asks F.D.A .
to Study Malaria Drugs for Coronavirus The president cites “ tremendous promise ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against the new virus is unproven .
President Trump on Thursday exaggerated the potential of drugs available to treat the new coronavirus , including an experimental antiviral treatment and decades-old malaria remedies that hint of promise but so far show limited evidence of healing the sick .
No drug has been approved to treat the new coronavirus , and doctors around the world have been desperately administering an array of medicines in search of something to help patients , especially those who are severely ill .
The malaria drugs , chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been tried in several countries as the virus has spread around the world , killing at least 9,800 .
Doctors in China , South Korea and France have reported that the treatments seem to help .
But those efforts have not involved the kind of large , carefully controlled studies that would provide the global medical community the proof that these drugs work on a significant scale .
In a White House briefing Thursday , Mr. Trump said the anti-malaria drugs had shown “ tremendous promise.
” “ I think it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he said .
“ I think it could be a game changer , and maybe not.
” The drugs ’ potential has been highlighted during broadcasts on one of Mr. Trump ’ s favorite news channels , Fox News , where hosts like Laura Ingraham , Tucker Carlson and Jeanine Pirro have trumpeted the possibility of a real treatment .
“ They ’ ve gone through the approval process , ” Mr. Trump said of the drugs .
“ It ’ s been approved , and they did.
” But the F.D.A .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the treatment of coronavirus , and the drugs were already available , to treat malaria as well as rheumatoid arthritis .
To date , the F.D.A .
has not added the coronavirus to the list of illnesses for which the drugs are specifically approved .
Then again , doctors have been free to use both old malaria drugs for any purpose deemed appropriate .
At the briefing on Thursday , Dr. Stephen M. Hahn , Stephen Hahn was a Rice U .
Class of 1980 classmate of mine , but I didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other Steve Hahn , class of 1978 , who was the first captain of my College Bowl team .
who has been the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration for only three months , tended to walk back some of the president ’ s more inflated predictions that these drugs might vanquish the virus altogether .
He said Mr. Trump had asked the agency to look into chloroquine to fight the coronavirus , and that it was setting up a large clinical trial to evaluate the drug .
Some hospitals in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the drugs for coronavirus patients , apparently reasoning that they may help and are unlikely to do harm .
They are cheap and relatively safe .
Laboratory studies have found that they prevent the coronavirus from invading cells , suggesting that the drugs could help prevent or limit the infection .
Not everyone can take the drugs : They are not safe for people who suffer from heart arrhythmia , or those with impaired kidneys or liver .
The University of Minnesota is conducting a study in which people who live with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find out if it can prevent the infection .
Maybe everyone in the country should take them to protect against getting infected .
Dr. Hahn also said that the agency was allowing sick patients to use remdesivir , the not-yet-approved antiviral drug made by Gilead .
Such so-called “ compassionate use ” programs allow patients to take unapproved , experimental drugs if they have no other options .
As word has spread about chloroquine ’ s potential , demand in the United States has overwhelmed the country ’ s only supplier of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rising Pharmaceuticals .
Chloroquine has been in short supply since March 9 , according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists , which tracks drug shortages .
Ira Baeringer , chief operating officer of Rising Pharmaceuticals , said his company had been tracking the use of the drug in China and elsewhere .
They increased production about three weeks ago , he said , and are meeting all of their orders .
But he acknowledged that pharmacies may currently have low stocks .
“ We are experiencing an extraordinary demand , as you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to all of the orders , ” Mr. Baeringer said .
He noted that the product had not yet been extensively tested for coronavirus so it was unclear how well it works .
“ We ’ re really trying to understand what the need is going to be.
” On Thursday , the German manufacturer Bayer said it had donated three million tablets of chloroquine to the U.S. government for potential use as a treatment for coronavirus .
Bayer does not sell its chloroquine product in the United States , but has said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
for it to be used on an emergency basis .
Chloroquine , sold under the brand name Resochin by Bayer , was discovered by the company in 1934 .
Bayer said in a statement Thursday that it “ appears to have broad spectrum antiviral properties and effects on the body ’ s immune response.
” The company said it had been in recent talks with the White House and several federal agencies to offer assistance .
Mr. Trump has previously made unfounded predictions that the coronavirus epidemic would soon disappear .
On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ malaria drugs in that effort , even though Dr. Deborah Birx , the White House ’ s coronavirus response coordinator , said the virus could return in the fall or winter of next year .
“ If they work , your numbers are going to come down very rapidly , ” Mr. Trump said .
“ So , we ’ ll see what happens , but there ’ s a real chance that they might — they might work.
” Truer words were never spoken : “ they might work .
”

There is a lot of hope that various quinine-like anti-malarial drugs such as chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, which is commonly prescribed in the U.S. for rheumatoid arthritis, happen to both help heal COVID-19 patients and make them less contagious.
Anti-malaria drugs can have some nasty side effects: cinchonism and quinism.
But now we’ve got to gear up to produce and deliver these in bulk.
The FDA needs to resolve issues like: If a COVID-19 test isn’t available, should a patient with symptoms be prescribed the drugs anyway?
As more people get infected, data miners may be able to find more such lucky interactions where people who are taking Pill X are less likely to be infected or to be hospitalized. It used to be that Kaiser-Permanente was unusual in having all this data readily online for its patients, but I presume databases on which medicines a care provider’s patients are taking are now common.
From the New York Times:
With Minimal Evidence, Trump Asks F.D.A. to Study Malaria Drugs for Coronavirus
The president cites “tremendous promise” for existing drugs, but their use against the new virus is unproven. By Denise Grady and Katie Thomas
March 19, 2020 President Trump on Thursday exaggerated the potential of drugs available to treat the new coronavirus, including an experimental antiviral treatment and decades-old malaria remedies that hint of promise but so far show limited evidence of healing the sick. No drug has been approved to treat the new coronavirus, and doctors around the world have been desperately administering an array of medicines in search of something to help patients, especially those who are severely ill. The malaria drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, are among the remedies that have been tried in several countries as the virus has spread around the world, killing at least 9,800. Doctors in China, South Korea and France have reported that the treatments seem to help. But those efforts have not involved the kind of large, carefully controlled studies that would provide the global medical community the proof that these drugs work on a significant scale. In a White House briefing Thursday, Mr. Trump said the anti-malaria drugs had shown “tremendous promise.” “I think it’s going to be very exciting,” he said. “I think it could be a game changer, and maybe not.” The drugs’ potential has been highlighted during broadcasts on one of Mr. Trump’s favorite news channels, Fox News, where hosts like Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson and Jeanine Pirro have trumpeted the possibility of a real treatment. “They’ve gone through the approval process,” Mr. Trump said of the drugs. “It’s been approved, and they did.” But the F.D.A. has not approved any drugs for use in the treatment of coronavirus, and the drugs were already available, to treat malaria as well as rheumatoid arthritis. To date, the F.D.A. has not added the coronavirus to the list of illnesses for which the drugs are specifically approved. Then again, doctors have been free to use both old malaria drugs for any purpose deemed appropriate. At the briefing on Thursday, Dr. Stephen M. Hahn,
Stephen Hahn was a Rice U. Class of 1980 classmate of mine, but I didn’t know him as well as the other Steve Hahn, class of 1978, who was the first captain of my College Bowl team.
who has been the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration for only three months, tended to walk back some of the president’s more inflated predictions that these drugs might vanquish the virus altogether. He said Mr. Trump had asked the agency to look into chloroquine to fight the coronavirus, and that it was setting up a large clinical trial to evaluate the drug. Some hospitals in the United States have already begun using the drugs for coronavirus patients, apparently reasoning that they may help and are unlikely to do harm. They are cheap and relatively safe. Laboratory studies have found that they prevent the coronavirus from invading cells, suggesting that the drugs could help prevent or limit the infection. Not everyone can take the drugs: They are not safe for people who suffer from heart arrhythmia, or those with impaired kidneys or liver. The University of Minnesota is conducting a study in which people who live with a coronavirus patient are being given hydroxychloroquine to find out if it can prevent the infection.
Maybe everyone in the country should take them to protect against getting infected.
Dr. Hahn also said that the agency was allowing sick patients to use remdesivir, the not-yet-approved antiviral drug made by Gilead. Such so-called “compassionate use” programs allow patients to take unapproved, experimental drugs if they have no other options. As word has spread about chloroquine’s potential, demand in the United States has overwhelmed the country’s only supplier of the drug, the New Jersey generic manufacturer Rising Pharmaceuticals. Chloroquine has been in short supply since March 9, according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, which tracks drug shortages. Ira Baeringer, chief operating officer of Rising Pharmaceuticals, said his company had been tracking the use of the drug in China and elsewhere. They increased production about three weeks ago, he said, and are meeting all of their orders. But he acknowledged that pharmacies may currently have low stocks. “We are experiencing an extraordinary demand, as you can imagine, but we are shipping to all of the orders,” Mr. Baeringer said. He noted that the product had not yet been extensively tested for coronavirus so it was unclear how well it works. “We’re really trying to understand what the need is going to be.” On Thursday, the German manufacturer Bayer said it had donated three million tablets of chloroquine to the U.S. government for potential use as a treatment for coronavirus. Bayer does not sell its chloroquine product in the United States, but has said it is seeking approval from the F.D.A. for it to be used on an emergency basis. Chloroquine, sold under the brand name Resochin by Bayer, was discovered by the company in 1934. Bayer said in a statement Thursday that it “appears to have broad spectrum antiviral properties and effects on the body’s immune response.” The company said it had been in recent talks with the White House and several federal agencies to offer assistance. Mr. Trump has previously made unfounded predictions that the coronavirus epidemic would soon disappear. On Thursday, he appeared to enlist the malaria drugs in that effort, even though Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said the virus could return in the fall or winter of next year. “If they work, your numbers are going to come down very rapidly,” Mr. Trump said. “So, we’ll see what happens, but there’s a real chance that they might — they might work.”
Truer words were never spoken: “they might work.”
[Comment at Unz.com]