vdare--2020-02-14--What Does Jeff Bezos' $165 Million House Purchase Tell Us About Thomas Piketty's Theory of Hidden Ol

What Does Jeff Bezos' $165 Million House Purchase Tell Us About Thomas Piketty's Theory of Hidden Old Money?

As I ’ ve often mentioned , one of my favorite perhaps crackpot but also perhaps legit theories is French leftist economist Thomas Piketty ’ s claim that his famous equation r > g proves that the Forbes Magazine lists of billionaires have to be wrong because there must be far more old money billionaires , while the Forbes lists are dominated by fairly recent wealth .
Piketty suspects there are vast hidden fortunes passed down through the generations that Forbes isn ’ t finding .
Even though Piketty ’ s book Capital in the 21st Century was a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much attention to the most glamorous and intriguing idea in the whole book .
I , however , immediately started thinking about how we could find this wealth .
For example , what about using Google Earth to look for evidence of palatial estates ?
For example , golf courses are instantly recognizable from the air , so personal golf courses are readily visible on Google .
Here ’ s a NYT article on Jeff Bezos spending $ 165 million on a Beverly Hills estate plus nearby 9 digit properties that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about everybody involved in owning these properties is famous , most track their fortunes back no further than the 20th Century , backyard golf courses seem to be a dying breed , and , by implication , only trashy Russian oligarchs really like all the steel and glass boxes that have been built on spec in the Hollywood Hills in recent years .
The Amazon leader reached a deal for the Warner Estate in Beverly Hills with David Geffen , who has owned it since 1990 .
The national housing market has cooled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are still shattering price records .
An heiress to the Formula One racing empire sold her home for $ 119.75 million last July .
In December , Lachlan Murdoch paid $ 150 million for a home in Bel Air .
The latest buyer at the top : Jeff Bezos , the Amazon chief and world ’ s richest person .
Setting a new high for a home sold in California , Mr. Bezos is paying $ 165 million for a Beverly Hills estate owned by David Geffen , the media mogul and co-founder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ familiar with the purchase .
That wasn ’ t all .
In a separate transaction , Bezos Expeditions , which oversees The Washington Post and Mr. Bezos ’ charitable foundation , is buying 120 undeveloped acres in Beverly Hills for $ 90 million , the two people said .
The land was put on the market for $ 150 million in 2018 by the estate of Paul Allen , the Microsoft co-founder , who died that year… .
The superrich are spending huge amounts for some of California ’ s premier properties .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fox Corporation , bought Chartwell , which TV viewers of a certain age may remember as the Clampetts ’ home in “ The Beverly Hillbillies.
” Petra Ecclestone , whose father , Bernie Ecclestone , ran Formula One for more than 40 years , sold the Manor .
The television producer Aaron Spelling had built the mansion , in the city ’ s Holmby Hills neighborhood , in 1988 .
For Mr. Bezos , it was the Warner Estate , which was designed in the 1930s for Jack Warner , the president of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roughly 13,000-square-foot home is considered one of the premier mansions built during Hollywood ’ s golden era .
… The Georgian Revival-style estate was designed for hosting the Warners ’ elaborate parties , with guests like Albert Einstein and Howard Hughes .
The property also included a nine-hole golf course , which Mr. Geffen removed when he renovated the grounds , Mr. Hyland said in an interview .
David Geffen doesn ’ t like golf .
I wonder why ?
That was the Harold Lloyd Estate , built by the silent movie comedy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by financier Ron Burkle , who likes to buy and restore houses with a lot of entertainment industry history , such as Bob Hope ’ s houses in Toluca Lake and Palm Springs .
Both backyard golf courses are no longer visible on aerial photos .
My estimate is that the the number of personal golf courses in Southern California is around only a half dozen — e.g.
, Oracle founder Larry Ellison is in the news for announcing a Trump fundraiser at his personal golf course in the Palm Springs area .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ canyons near Zuma Beach whose owner is unknown to me , but most of the others were built by well-known individuals : Bob Hope , Walter Annenberg , Jerry Perenchio and the like .
The Warner Estate , whose sale to Mr. Bezos was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal , stands out from the speculatively built glass-box homes that have flooded the local market… .
“ Everybody today would like to see classical architecture , ” Mr. Hyland said .
“ They want substance .
They want acreage.
” He said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hilton , had the most expensive current listing in the area , the $ 225 million Conrad Hilton estate , which is on eight and a half acres in Bel Air .
So not much evidence for Hidden Old Money from the Beverly Hills real estate market .
But where does the Hidden Old Money congregate ?
And let ’ s see the aerial photos !
By the way , showing the utility of aerial photos for identifying the rich , another Beverly Hills house has a backyard full size basketball court decked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pistons .
So I looked up the owner of the Pistons .
He ’ s an interesting first generation self-made man , a Greek-Lebanese Catholic born Tewfiq Georgious in Nazareth who grew up in Michigan , then made it big in business in Los Angeles .

As I’ve often mentioned, one of my favorite perhaps crackpot but also perhaps legit theories is French leftist economist Thomas Piketty’s claim that his famous equation r > g proves that the Forbes Magazine lists of billionaires have to be wrong because there must be far more old money billionaires, while the Forbes lists are dominated by fairly recent wealth. Piketty suspects there are vast hidden fortunes passed down through the generations that Forbes isn’t finding.
Even though Piketty’s book Capital in the 21st Century was a huge bestseller, few else seemed to pay much attention to the most glamorous and intriguing idea in the whole book. I, however, immediately started thinking about how we could find this wealth. For example, what about using Google Earth to look for evidence of palatial estates? For example, golf courses are instantly recognizable from the air, so personal golf courses are readily visible on Google.
Here’s a NYT article on Jeff Bezos spending $165 million on a Beverly Hills estate plus nearby 9 digit properties that’s relevant to the Piketty Theory: Just about everybody involved in owning these properties is famous, most track their fortunes back no further than the 20th Century, backyard golf courses seem to be a dying breed, and, by implication, only trashy Russian oligarchs really like all the steel and glass boxes that have been built on spec in the Hollywood Hills in recent years.
Jeff Bezos Buying $165 Million Estate, a California Record The Amazon leader reached a deal for the Warner Estate in Beverly Hills with David Geffen, who has owned it since 1990. By Candace Jackson, Feb. 14, 2020 The national housing market has cooled, but in Los Angeles the ultrarich are still shattering price records. An heiress to the Formula One racing empire sold her home for $119.75 million last July. In December, Lachlan Murdoch paid $150 million for a home in Bel Air. The latest buyer at the top: Jeff Bezos, the Amazon chief and world’s richest person. Setting a new high for a home sold in California, Mr. Bezos is paying $165 million for a Beverly Hills estate owned by David Geffen, the media mogul and co-founder of DreamWorks, according to two people familiar with the purchase. That wasn’t all. In a separate transaction, Bezos Expeditions, which oversees The Washington Post and Mr. Bezos’ charitable foundation, is buying 120 undeveloped acres in Beverly Hills for $90 million, the two people said. The land was put on the market for $150 million in 2018 by the estate of Paul Allen, the Microsoft co-founder, who died that year…. The superrich are spending huge amounts for some of California’s premier properties. Mr. Murdoch, chief executive of the Fox Corporation, bought Chartwell, which TV viewers of a certain age may remember as the Clampetts’ home in “The Beverly Hillbillies.” Petra Ecclestone, whose father, Bernie Ecclestone, ran Formula One for more than 40 years, sold the Manor. The television producer Aaron Spelling had built the mansion, in the city’s Holmby Hills neighborhood, in 1988. For Mr. Bezos, it was the Warner Estate, which was designed in the 1930s for Jack Warner, the president of the Warner Bros. film studio. The roughly 13,000-square-foot home is considered one of the premier mansions built during Hollywood’s golden era. … The Georgian Revival-style estate was designed for hosting the Warners’ elaborate parties, with guests like Albert Einstein and Howard Hughes. The property also included a nine-hole golf course, which Mr. Geffen removed when he renovated the grounds, Mr. Hyland said in an interview.
David Geffen doesn’t like golf. I wonder why?
A home next door also had a nine-hole course, allowing the Warners and their neighbors to play 18 holes right in the middle of Beverly Hills.
That was the Harold Lloyd Estate, built by the silent movie comedy star. It’s now owned by financier Ron Burkle, who likes to buy and restore houses with a lot of entertainment industry history, such as Bob Hope’s houses in Toluca Lake and Palm Springs.
Both backyard golf courses are no longer visible on aerial photos. My estimate is that the number of personal golf courses in Southern California is around only a half dozen — e.g., Oracle founder Larry Ellison is in the news for announcing a Trump fundraiser at his personal golf course in the Palm Springs area. There’s one out in some canyons near Zuma Beach whose owner is unknown to me, but most of the others were built by well-known individuals: Bob Hope, Walter Annenberg, Jerry Perenchio and the like.
The Warner Estate, whose sale to Mr. Bezos was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, stands out from the speculatively built glass-box homes that have flooded the local market…. “Everybody today would like to see classical architecture,” Mr. Hyland said. “They want substance. They want acreage.” He said he and his business partner, Rick Hilton, had the most expensive current listing in the area, the $225 million Conrad Hilton estate, which is on eight and a half acres in Bel Air.
So not much evidence for Hidden Old Money from the Beverly Hills real estate market. But where does the Hidden Old Money congregate? And let’s see the aerial photos!
By the way, showing the utility of aerial photos for identifying the rich, another Beverly Hills house has a backyard full size basketball court decked out in the colors of the Detroit Pistons. So I looked up the owner of the Pistons. He’s an interesting first generation self-made man, a Greek-Lebanese Catholic born Tewfiq Georgious in Nazareth who grew up in Michigan, then made it big in business in Los Angeles.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-02-14--Problem Solved! Term ‘At-Risk Youth’ Replaced with ‘At-Promise Youth’ In California Penal Codes

SACRAMENTO ( CBS13 ) – The term “ at-risk youth ” was commonly used in both penal and education codes @ @ @ @ @ .
Gov .
Gavin Newsom signed legislation that went into effect on Jan. 1 that @ @ @ @ @ the state ’ s language .
The phrase will now be replaced by “ at-promise @ @ @ @ @ ( D-South Los Angeles ) , who penned the passed legislation , says the measure @ @ @ @ @ that comes along with the “ at-risk ” label .
“ I learned that words @ @ @ @ @ were called ‘ at-risk , ’ they almost were in the school-to-prison pipeline automatically , @ @ @ @

From CBS news in Sacramento:
Term ‘At-Risk Youth’ Replaced With ‘At-Promise Youth’ In California Penal Codes
by Laura Haefeli
February 13, 2020
SACRAMENTO (CBS13) – The term “at-risk youth” was commonly used in both penal and education codes in California – until now.
Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation that went into effect on Jan. 1 that officially wiped the phrase from the state’s language. The phrase will now be replaced by “at-promise youth.”
Assemblymember Byron Jones-Sawyer (D-South Los Angeles), who penned the passed legislation, says the measure will change the negative connotation that comes along with the “at-risk” label.
“I learned that words matter – and once they were called ‘at-risk,’ they almost were in the school-to-prison pipeline automatically,” Jones-Sawyer said.


vdare--2020-02-14--Affirmative Licensing: Step 1 Of Medical Licensing Exam Made Pass-Fail

When affirmative action was introduced over a half century ago , many assumed that once the under-represented demographics were given a little help getting past the initial gatekeeper , they ’ d do well at all subsequent levels .
Unfortunately , that proved naive .
So ever since there have been unending struggles over how far up the ladder to extend affirmative action .
For example , if you have affirmative action in medical school admissions , should you also have affirmative action in doctor licensing ?
One obvious but little-discussed problem for the beneficiaries of affirmative action at professional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ school lead to professional licensing exams , which can be disastrous if the student can ’ t pass .
In contrast , business school students don ’ t have to take exams to get a job ( outside of a few specialties ) , so an MBA can be a safer bet for an underrepresented minority .
Or at least that ’ s what logic implies : I ’ ve never seen this question investigated by academics .
Not surprisingly , black medical students , many of whom are beneficiaries of affirmative action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three stage medical licensing exam .
Lower scores on the Step 1 of the three part medical licensing exam , a 7 hour exam given to med students in the summer after their second year , make it harder to get desired residencies .
Assuming a standard deviation of 22 , compared to white medical students , from 2005 to 2014 black med students score about 0.74 standard deviations worse , Hispanics about 0.51 , and Asians about 0.04 .
The authorities this week declared that Step 1 will no longer be graded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will be pass-fail .
If the current mean is about 228 and the standard deviation is 21 and the passing score is 194 , you only need to score about 1.6 standard deviations below the mean to pass .
So unless you are in the bottom 10 % of med students in the country , you don ’ t have too much to worry about now .
This will disadvantage the smarter med students at lower prestige med schools and advantage the dimmer med students at elite med schools , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be a Good Thing .
This week ’ s change is pretty similar to what we see with firemen ’ s hiring and promotion tests , where it is often decided in the name of civil rights and fighting disparate impact discrimination to stop hiring based on rank order of test scores , but instead only require a passing grade on the test , which is set so low that almost all whites pass , and then use more randomized procedures to choose among all those who pass .
Logically , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simply have race quotas and choose in rank order within each race .
That would get higher average knowledge firemen than the pass-fail system .
But that kind of system is often demeaned as a quota and is seen by beneficiaries as embarrassingly blatant .
In contrast , pass-fail systems at least obfuscate the reality of racial preferences , even if a few extra people must burn to death each year .

When affirmative action was introduced over a half century ago, many assumed that once the under-represented demographics were given a little help getting past the initial gatekeeper, they’d do well at all subsequent levels. Unfortunately, that proved naive. So ever since there have been unending struggles over how far up the ladder to extend affirmative action.
For example, if you have affirmative action in medical school admissions, should you also have affirmative action in doctor licensing?
One obvious but little-discussed problem for the beneficiaries of affirmative action at professional schools is that both law and medicine school lead to professional licensing exams, which can be disastrous if the student can’t pass. In contrast, business school students don’t have to take exams to get a job (outside of a few specialties), so an MBA can be a safer bet for an underrepresented minority. Or at least that’s what logic implies: I’ve never seen this question investigated by academics.
Not surprisingly, black medical students, many of whom are beneficiaries of affirmative action, tend to do worse on the three stage medical licensing exam. Lower scores on the Step 1 of the three part medical licensing exam, a 7 hour exam given to med students in the summer after their second year, make it harder to get desired residencies.
Assuming a standard deviation of 22, compared to white medical students, from 2005 to 2014 black med students score about 0.74 standard deviations worse, Hispanics about 0.51, and Asians about 0.04.
The authorities this week declared that Step 1 will no longer be graded with a 3 digit score. Instead it will be pass-fail.
If the current mean is about 228 and the standard deviation is 21 and the passing score is 194, you only need to score about 1.6 standard deviations below the mean to pass. So unless you are in the bottom 10% of med students in the country, you don’t have too much to worry about now.
This will disadvantage the smarter med students at lower prestige med schools and advantage the dimmer med students at elite med schools, which is, I guess in 2020, considered to be a Good Thing.
This week’s change is pretty similar to what we see with firemen’s hiring and promotion tests, where it is often decided in the name of civil rights and fighting disparate impact discrimination to stop hiring based on rank order of test scores, but instead only require a passing grade on the test, which is set so low that almost all whites pass, and then use more randomized procedures to choose among all those who pass.
Logically, it would seem like a better idea to simply have race quotas and choose in rank order within each race. That would get higher average knowledge firemen than the pass-fail system. But that kind of system is often demeaned as a quota and is seen by beneficiaries as embarrassingly blatant. In contrast, pass-fail systems at least obfuscate the reality of racial preferences, even if a few extra people must burn to death each year.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-02-16--Tessa Majors’ Murder Just Tip Of New York City’s Crime Iceberg

At long last , Rashaun Weaver has been arrested for the murder of Barnard College student Tessa Majors back on December 11 2019 .
Remember , the police had Weaver in custody but let him go [ 14-Year-Old Is Released Without Charges in Tessa Majors Case , by Edgar Sandoval , New York Times , December 26 , 2019 ] .
A second suspect , Zyairr Davis , 13 , had already been charged—but in Family Court [ Judge sets murder trial date for teen boy in Tessa Majors stabbing death , by Anthony M. DeStefano , Newsday , January @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspect , also questioned but also released , is still free .
This agonizing pace is the direct result of the race-whipped pro-crime policies of New York City Mayor Bill DiBlasio , which I predict may yet succeed in denying Majors justice .
And it ’ s the tip of the iceberg : soon it will not be possible to disguise that we ’ re headed back to the high-crime era of 1980s .
In Majors ’ case , the New York City Police Department also did its part .
Tellingly , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let Davis ’ gang of muggers run amok in the area until they murdered her .
And , as the New York Post reported , Weaver But , of course , the NYPD has not arrested the accomplices who harbored him while he healed and charged them as accessories .
One understandable reason for law enforcement caution : the killers ’ fans are politicizing the case , aiming to pull a new Central Park Five Hoax .
They ’ ve already defamed the main detective [ Detective involved in Barnard student Tessa Majors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other cases , by Alec Snyder , CNN , December 23 , 2019 ] , and baselessly asserted that Davis ’ confession was coerced because detectives “ badgered ” him [ Lawyer Casts Doubt on Boy ’ s Statements About Murder of Barnard Student , by Jan Ransom , The New York Times , December 17 , 2019 ] .
The police know that Bill de Blasio will not have their back .
His New York is city of re-emerging super-predators—the term popularized during the 1990s by criminologist John J. DiIulio Jr. to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black , who were psychopathic crime machines .
The Left demonized and misrepresented the concept , DiIulio got scared , and the problem was turned upside down .
Now , black super-predators are “ victims ” [ Return of the Super- Predators , by Brian Johnson , Jackson Free Press , August 30 , 2006 ] Not that de Blasio created this world .
The architects are the black sperm donors who knocked up their girlfriends but disappeared when it came time to raise their children , and mothers who deliberately raised racist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stop the Rain ?
, Nicholas Stix Uncensored , June 15 , 2008 ] .
Of course , we have seen generations of dueling myths about it .
According to the Left ’ s favorite myth , black criminals of all ages are innocent “ victims of racism.
” And Republicans claim credit for miraculous reductions in crime—which , in my opinion as a New Yorker , were themselves substantially mythical .
Thus during the mid-to-late 1990s , the Daily News and Newsday exposed one fake stat scandal after another , including the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but typically acted as if the different scandals were unrelated .
Beginning in 1996 , in a series of exposés , I showed the patterns [ 1996 , 2002a , 2002b , 2004 , 2007 , 2011 , 2012 , 2012b , 2012c , 2012d , 2014a , 2014b ] .
Here ’ s another example : Gelinas knows much more than she says , given her classic article on crime in New Orleans [ Who ’ s Killing New Orleans ?
, City Journal , August 2005 ] .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police chiefs or got consultant gigs around the country , ordinary cops degenerated into professional liars , and manufactured fakestats , and with them the rule of crime spread .
That ’ s how murders committed by blacks became “ accidental deaths ” or “ suicides , ” and first-degree and aggravated attempted rapes became “ trespassing , ” as these three stories show : • NYPD Did n't Do Its Job in Case of German Student Killed by L Train : Family , DNAInfo , by Aidan Gardiner and Murray Weiss , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : A Detective Comes Forward About Downgraded Sexual Assaults , by Graham Rayman , Village Voice , June 8 , 2010 .
( In contrast , however , by-the-book , justifiable homicides in which cops defend themselves are now “ murders.
” Of course , this discourages honest policing even more ) .
Observers such as Heather Mac Donald had only two possible explanations for the ( supposed ) crime reduction : stop-question-frisk and “ broken windows ” policing , which attacks low-level , “ quality-of-life ” misdemeanors ( panhandling , fare evasion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
De Blasio all but ended stop-question-frisk , which had taken thousands of guns off of New York ’ s streets .
And “ broken windows policing ” was sabotaged from the get-go .
Judges routinely threw out quality-of-life charges , while prosecutors often threw them out before they ever reached court .
[ Letter From New York City | Crime Stories Chronicles , August 1996 ] Under de Blasio , the city ’ s criminals enjoy criminal amnesties that were expressly cooked up for blacks and Hispanics under “ disparate impact ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon [ A criminal justice reform would give thousands a clean slate — if only they would apply , by David Brand , Brooklyn Daily Eagle , November 25 , 2019 ] .
Amnesties were already institutionalized no later than the 1980s , by the way .
A misdemeanant would get an ACD ( adjudication in contemplation of dismissal ) , help clean a city park for a couple of days , go six months without being re-arrested , and the arrest would be expunged .
De Blasio also conceived a free crime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Narcotics cops ordered to stop arresting suspects over 40 , by Daniel Prendergast , Shawn Cohen and Jamie Schram , New York Post , May 20 , 2015 ] .
And he all but eliminated most school discipline .
With his blessing , black and brown thugs can now curse teachers , engage in violence , and block all education .
Similarly , New York State has just created a felons ’ paradise for black and brown thugs through “ criminal justice reform , ” whereby bail has been virtually ended so that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ New York bail reform under fire amid wave of anti-Semitic attacks , by Ronn Blitzer , Fox News , January 2 , 2020 ] .
According to de Blasio , the wave of anti-Semitic attacks by blacks are the fault of “ white nationalists ” and President Trump [ Latest anti-Semitic attacks make it clear : Hatred of Jews does n't just come from white supremacists , by Beth Bailey , Washington Examiner , December 30 , 2019 ] .
Black New York Attorney General Letitia James ’ contribution was to demand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who practically have a monopoly on the crime .
Even when the city or a precinct admits , as my area ’ s did in November , 2018 , that two of the seven “ index crimes , ” felony assault and burglary , have increased , they insist “ that a decrease in crime contained a surge of unpleasant incidents this month ” [ Assaults Continue Despite Crime Decrease , by Ray Vann , The Wave , November 30 , 2018 ] .
Citywide , the NYPD told a similar story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent and rapes 19 percent early last year .
Yet “ despite the increase in murders , ” the Daily News reported , “ the city ’ s overall crime rate was down 11 % in February and down 9 % for the year ” [ Homicides in NYC up 37 % so far this year , driven by stunning 50 % spike in February , by Rocco Parascandola and Graham Rayman , March 4 , 2019 ] .
While it is mathematically possible for crime overall to go down as two felony @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is highly unlikely .
( The index crimes are murder , rape , robbery , assault , burglary , grand larceny and grand theft auto .
The FBI also counts arson ) .
How did the other five categories decrease so much that crime went down overall ?
In the real world , a crime explosion hits all sectors .
The same felons who rape and murder also rob and burglarize , often at the same time .
In 2010 an NYPD officer named Adrian Schoolcraft exposed the truth and paid the price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and complained to his superiors about the fakestats .
Next thing he knew , the brass had cops break down Schoolcraft ’ s apartment door , kidnap him , and force him into a psycho ward for six days .
Eventually , the NYPD paid Schoolcraft a $ 60,000 settlement .
Graham Rayman of the lefty Village Voice , now a crime writer at the Daily News wrote a series and a book about Schoolcraft and the fakestats .
But nothing has changed .
Rayman ’ s offering in the Voice opened with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It might not have surprised the supervisor or even NYPD ’ s brass , but it likely surprised taxpayers who expect the cops “ to protect and serve.
” While we ’ ve all heard about the low-crime renaissance of the city beginning in the mid-1990s under Rudy Giuliani , I ’ m here to tell you it never happened .
New York , despite what de Blasio and his predecessor Mike Bloomberg say , is not the safest big city in America .
Tessa Majors would tell you , too , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who now rule the streets for their friendly monarch , Bill de Blasio , saw to that .
And no amount of fake stats will be able to hide what ’ s coming next .

Earlier: Stix Vindicated! Academics, Magazine Confirm Big City Police Are “Disappearing” Crime
At long last, Rashaun Weaver has been arrested for the murder of Barnard College student Tessa Majors back on December 11 2019. Remember, the police had Weaver in custody but let him go [14-Year-Old Is Released Without Charges in Tessa Majors Case, by Edgar Sandoval, New York Times, December 26, 2019]. A second suspect, Zyairr Davis, 13, had already been charged—but in Family Court [Judge sets murder trial date for teen boy in Tessa Majors stabbing death, by Anthony M. DeStefano, Newsday, January 2, 2020]. A third suspect, also questioned but also released, is still free. This agonizing pace is the direct result of the race-whipped pro-crime policies of New York City Mayor Bill DiBlasio, which I predict may yet succeed in denying Majors justice. And it’s the tip of the iceberg: Soon it will not be possible to disguise that we’re headed back to the high-crime era of 1980s.
In Majors’ case, the New York City Police Department also did its part. Tellingly, as with the Knoxville Horror, depolicing had let Davis’ gang of muggers run amok in the area until they murdered her.
And, as the New York Post reported, Weaver
was on the lam for more than two weeks before cops nabbed him in the Bronx on Thursday. ... Investigators believe he may have stayed underground until his finger healed [Suspect may have killed Tessa Majors because she bit his finger: police sources, by Tina Moore, Khristina Narizhnaya and Laura Italiano, December 27, 2019]
But, of course, the NYPD has not arrested the accomplices who harbored him while he healed and charged them as accessories.
One understandable reason for law enforcement caution: The killers’ fans are politicizing the case, aiming to pull a new Central Park Five Hoax. They’ve already defamed the main detective [Detective involved in Barnard student Tessa Majors case faces allegations he falsified evidence in other cases, by Alec Snyder, CNN, December 23, 2019], and baselessly asserted that Davis’ confession was coerced because detectives “badgered” him [Lawyer Casts Doubt on Boy’s Statements About Murder of Barnard Student, by Jan Ransom, New York Times, December 17, 2019].
The police know that Bill de Blasio will not have their back. His New York is city of re-emerging super-predators—the term popularized during the 1990s by criminologist John J. DiIulio Jr. to describe the ever younger boys, mostly black, who were psychopathic crime machines. The Left demonized and misrepresented the concept, DiIulio got scared, and the problem was turned upside down. Now, black super-predators are “victims” [Return of the Super-Predators, by Brian Johnson, Jackson Free Press, August 30, 2006].
Not that de Blasio created this world. The architects are the black sperm donors who knocked up their girlfriends but disappeared when it came time to raise their children, and mothers who deliberately raised racist, violent felons [Who’ll Stop the Rain?, Nicholas Stix, Uncensored, June 15, 2008].
Of course, we have seen generations of dueling myths about it. According to the Left’s favorite myth, black criminals of all ages are innocent “victims of racism.” And Republicans claim credit for miraculous reductions in crime—which, in my opinion as a New Yorker, were themselves substantially mythical.
Thus during the mid-to-late 1990s, the Daily News and Newsday exposed one fake stat scandal after another, including the NYPD’s cooking the crime stats, but typically acted as if the different scandals were unrelated. Beginning in 1996, in a series of exposés, I showed the patterns [1996, 2002a, 2002b, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2012b, 2012c, 2012d, 2014a, 2014b]. Here’s another example:
The murder rate, muddled by the NYPD’s strange habit of ‘reclassifying’ dozens of murders whose precipitating violent incident took place years before, is roughly flat. But the city’s insistence that overall crime remains at record lows sounds increasingly more plaintive than boastful, as if this is the best we can do. [How ignoring crime, accident data caused three deaths in 10 days in NYC, by Nicole Gelinas, New York Post, last updated December 23, 2019]
Gelinas knows much more than she says, given her classic article on crime in New Orleans [Who’s Killing New Orleans?, City Journal, August 2005]. But in any event as NYPD officials were appointed police chiefs or got consultant gigs around the country, ordinary cops degenerated into professional liars, and manufactured fakestats, and with them the rule of crime spread.
That’s how murders committed by blacks became “accidental deaths” or “suicides,” and first-degree and aggravated attempted rapes became “trespassing,” as these three stories show:
(In contrast, however, by-the-book, justifiable homicides in which cops defend themselves are now “murders.” Of course, this discourages honest policing even more).
Observers such as Heather Mac Donald had only two possible explanations for the (supposed) crime reduction: stop-question-frisk and “broken windows” policing, which attacks low-level, “quality-of-life” misdemeanors (panhandling, fare evasion, public urination and public drinking).
But I don’t buy it.
De Blasio all but ended stop-question-frisk, which had taken thousands of guns off of New York’s streets. And “broken windows policing” was sabotaged from the get-go. Judges routinely threw out quality-of-life charges, while prosecutors often threw them out before they ever reached court. [Letter From New York City | Crime Stories, Chronicles, August 1996]
Under de Blasio, the city’s criminals enjoy criminal amnesties that were expressly cooked up for blacks and Hispanics under “disparate impact” sophistry. Another one is reportedly coming soon [A criminal justice reform would give thousands a clean slate — if only they would apply, by David Brand, Brooklyn Daily Eagle, November 25, 2019]. Amnesties were already institutionalized no later than the 1980s, by the way. A misdemeanant would get an ACD (adjudication in contemplation of dismissal), help clean a city park for a couple of days, go six months without being re-arrested, and the arrest would be expunged.
De Blasio also conceived a free crime program for drug criminals over 40 [Narcotics cops ordered to stop arresting suspects over 40, by Daniel Prendergast, Shawn Cohen and Jamie Schram, New York Post, May 20, 2015]. And he all but eliminated most school discipline. With his blessing, black and brown thugs can now curse teachers, engage in violence, and block all education.
Similarly, New York State has just created a felons’ paradise for black and brown thugs through “criminal justice reform,” whereby bail has been virtually ended so that thugs can commit more crimes more quickly [New York bail reform under fire amid wave of anti-Semitic attacks, by Ronn Blitzer, Fox News, January 2, 2020]. According to de Blasio, the wave of anti-Semitic attacks by blacks is the fault of “white nationalists” and President Trump [Latest anti-Semitic attacks make it clear: Hatred of Jews doesn't just come from white supremacists, by Beth Bailey, Washington Examiner, December 30, 2019].
Black New York Attorney General Letitia James’ contribution was to demand that the NYPD cease arresting black farebeaters, who practically have a monopoly on the crime.
Even when the city or a precinct admits, as my area’s did in November, 2018, that two of the seven “index crimes,” felony assault and burglary, have increased, they insist “that a decrease in crime contained a surge of unpleasant incidents this month” [Assaults Continue Despite Crime Decrease, by Ray Vann, The Wave, November 30, 2018].
Citywide, the NYPD told a similar story three months later. Homicides jumped 37 percent and rapes 19 percent early last year. Yet “despite the increase in murders,” the Daily News reported, “the city’s overall crime rate was down 11% in February and down 9% for the year” [Homicides in NYC up 37% so far this year, driven by stunning 50% spike in February, by Rocco Parascandola and Graham Rayman, March 4, 2019].
While it is mathematically possible for crime overall to go down as two felony index crime rates are exploding, it is highly unlikely.
(The index crimes are murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny and grand theft auto. The FBI also counts arson).
How did the other five categories decrease so much that crime went down overall? In the real world, a crime explosion hits all sectors. The same felons who rape and murder also rob and burglarize, often at the same time.
In 2010 an NYPD officer named Adrian Schoolcraft exposed the truth and paid the price for it. He recorded compromising conversations and complained to his superiors about the fakestats. Next thing he knew, the brass had cops break down Schoolcraft’s apartment door, kidnap him, and force him into a psycho ward for six days. Eventually, the NYPD paid Schoolcraft a $60,000 settlement.
Graham Rayman of the lefty Village Voice, now a crime writer at the Daily News, wrote a series and a book about Schoolcraft and the fakestats. But nothing has changed.
Rayman’s offering in the Voice opened with a money quote from a supervisor:
“You know, I’ve been doing this over eight years. I’ve seen a lot. The lengths people will go to try not to take a report, or not take a report for a seven major [crime]. So nothing surprises me anymore.” [The NYPD Tapes: Inside Bed-Stuy’s 81st Precinct, by Graham Rayman, May 4, 2010]
It might not have surprised the supervisor or even NYPD’s brass, but it likely surprised taxpayers who expect the cops “to protect and serve.”
While we’ve all heard about the low-crime renaissance of the city beginning in the mid-1990s under Rudy Giuliani, I’m here to tell you it never happened. New York, despite what de Blasio and his predecessor Mike Bloomberg say, is not the safest big city in America.
Tessa Majors would tell you, too, but she can’t.
The super-predators who now rule the streets for their friendly monarch, Bill de Blasio, saw to that.
And no amount of fake stats will be able to hide what’s coming next.
Nicholas Stix [email him] is a New York City-based journalist and researcher, much of whose work focuses on the nexus of race, crime, and education. He spent much of the 1990s teaching college in New York and New Jersey. His work has appeared in Chronicles, The New York Post, Weekly Standard, Daily News, New York Newsday, American Renaissance, Academic Questions, Ideas on Liberty and many other publications. Stix was the project director and principal author of the NPI report, The State of White America-2007. He blogs at Nicholas Stix, Uncensored.


vdare--2020-02-17--Diverse Hot-Country Refugees Learn Basics of Life in Minnesota from Expanding Nonprofit

Sunday ’ s front page of the StarTribune newspaper published from Minneapolis/St .
Paul included a story about “ new Americans ” being taught how to navigate Minnesota ’ s culture as well as the cold and snow — so different from Rwanda and Burundi !
The accompanying photo showed newcomers learning the fine points of shoveling snow at an eight-week class presented by the International Institute of Minnesota : The article gives limited information about the Institute , noting that it has “ resettled nearly 25,000 refugees in its centurylong history.
” However a glance at the internet shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ST. PAUL — At a time when nursing homes and assisted living facilities are scrambling to find employees who can balance a strong work ethic with sensitivity to the needs of vulnerable adults , Jane Graupman believes she has just the solution .
In a word ?
Refugees .
She wants more of them , and she wants to make more room for them and other immigrants in her crowded classrooms .
.
.
.
Meanwhile , technology has a different idea for patient care in nursing homes , namely robots , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time .
So America won ’ t be needing low-skilled foreigners for that job either .
One gets the impression that refugee resettlement can be a profitable endeavor .
The most recent 990 report for the Institute available is for the year ending September 30 , 2018 , and it shows Executive Director Graupman getting a salary of $ 106,769 .
That ’ s probably decent money in Minnesota .
Also interesting is that “ government grants ” from the taxpayers amounted to $ 2,294,910 .
So uneducated , culturally ignorant immigrants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diversity-seeking nonprofits .
‘ Life in Minnesota ’ class : Shoveling , walking on ice and the nuances of ‘ Nice ’ , Star Tribune , February 15 , 2020 The eight-week cultural orientation class helps immigrants and temporary residents navigate myriad American systems — legal , education , health care — and more .
Dorcas Zirirane arrived at a “ Life in Minnesota ” class in St. Paul carrying her 1-year-old granddaughter on her back in a colorful cloth sling , speaking to her in Swahili .
Zirirane was wearing a long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traditional to the Democratic Republic of Congo , from which she ’ d fled as a refugee .
But she ’ d already adapted her wardrobe to her new home .
Zirirane raised the hem of her thin cotton skirt to reveal a pair of thick leggings .
Zirirane was one of about 20 students attending the International Institute of Minnesota ’ s eight-week cultural orientation class , which helps immigrants and temporary residents navigate myriad American systems — legal , education , health care — and more .
Instructor Sara Skinner also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skills specific to the state .
Many are related to the cold : how to dress for winter , do the “ penguin shuffle ” when walking on ice , shovel snow correctly .
Others involve a more figurative cool : understanding Minnesotans ’ reserve and interpreting the notorious “ Minnesota Nice.
” This morning ’ s lesson was on health .
Midway through it , Skinner stressed the importance of protecting your skin from the cold , dry air .
“ If you put Vaseline in your nose at night when you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nose not to bleed , ” she offered .
The Swahili and Karenni interpreters did their best to translate a phrase that likely left those from warmer climes wondering what they were doing in this bone-chilling land of nasal-greasers .
The number of refugees coming to Minnesota has plummeted since President Donald Trump dramatically reduced the national cap on refugees ( 18,000 this year , down from 110,000 during Obama ’ s final year in office ) .
Still , the state has a long tradition of welcoming newcomers and ranks high in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Of the nearly 900 refugees who arrived in Minnesota in 2019 , those from Myanmar were most numerous , followed by Democratic Republic of Congo and Ukraine .
But a typical “ Life in Minnesota ” class includes students from countries all over the globe : China , Burundi , Rwanda and Portugal among them .
Helping new Americans achieve self-sufficiency remains a primary focus of the institute , which has resettled nearly 25,000 refugees in its centurylong history .
It is one of five resettlement groups in the state .
( @ @

Sunday’s front page of the StarTribune newspaper published from Minneapolis/St. Paul included a story about “new Americans” being taught how to navigate Minnesota’s culture as well as the cold and snow — so different from Rwanda and Burundi!
The accompanying photo showed newcomers learning the fine points of shoveling snow at an eight-week class presented by the International Institute of Minnesota:
The article gives limited information about the Institute, noting that it has “resettled nearly 25,000 refugees in its centurylong history.”
However a glance at the internet shows that the nonprofit is expanding substantially:
As refugee debate intensifies, International Institute of Minnesota plans $12 million expansion, St. Paul Pioneer Press, January 13, 2020 ST. PAUL — At a time when nursing homes and assisted living facilities are scrambling to find employees who can balance a strong work ethic with sensitivity to the needs of vulnerable adults, Jane Graupman believes she has just the solution. In a word? Refugees. She wants more of them, and she wants to make more room for them and other immigrants in her crowded classrooms. . . .
Meanwhile, technology has a different idea for patient care in nursing homes, namely robots, which are becoming smarter and more capable all the time. So America won’t be needing low-skilled foreigners for that job either.
One gets the impression that refugee resettlement can be a profitable endeavor. The most recent 990 report for the Institute available is for the year ending September 30, 2018, and it shows Executive Director Graupman getting a salary of $106,769. That’s probably decent money in Minnesota. Also interesting is that “government grants” from the taxpayers amounted to $2,294,910.
So uneducated, culturally ignorant immigrants and refugees can be quite enriching for diversity-seeking nonprofits.


vdare--2020-02-17--Patrick J. Buchanan: If Duterte Wants Us Out Of The Philippines, Let's Go

Earlier , by Pat Buchanan : Dump Duterte ( For Starters ) And The Rest Of The “ Entangling Alliances ” Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has just given us notice he will be terminating the Visiting Forces Agreement that governs U.S. military personnel in the islands .
His notification starts the clock running on a six-month deadline .
If no new agreement is negotiated , the VFA is dissolved .
Duterte was offended that one of his political allies who led his anti-drug campaign in the islands , which involves extrajudicial killings of drug dealers , had been denied a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never been an enthusiast of the U.S. presence .
In 2016 , he told his Chinese hosts in Beijing : `` I want , maybe in the next two years , my country free of the presence of foreign military troops .
I want them out . ''
The Pentagon is shaken .
If there is no VFA , how do we continue to move forces in and out to guarantee our ability to honor the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty ?
Defense Secretary Mark Esper called Duterte 's action `` a step in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump openly disagreed : `` If they would like to do that , that 's fine .
We 'll save a lot of money . ''
The Philippine Islands are among the largest recipients of foreign aid in East Asia , and we 've provided $ 1.3 billion in military assistance over the last two decades .
But money should n't be the largest consideration here .
Trump has been given a historic opportunity to reshape U.S. and Asia policy along the lines he ran on in 2016 .
He should tell Duterte @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we , too , are giving notice of our decision to let the 1951 treaty lapse .
And following expiration of that treaty , the U.S. will be absolved of any legal obligation to come to the defense of the Philippines .
Time for Manila to take charge of its own defense .
Indeed , what is the argument for a treaty that virtually dictates U.S. involvement in any future war in 7,600 islands 8,000 miles from the United States ?
When we negotiated the 1951 treaty , it was a different world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Stalin 's USSR .
We were in a hot war in Korea that would cost 37,000 U.S. lives .
Gen. Douglas MacArthur had just been relieved of his command of U.S. forces in Korea by Harry Truman .
A disarmed Japan had not fully recovered from World War II .
The Communist armies of Chairman Mao had overrun China and driven our Nationalist allies off the mainland .
The Viet Minh were five years into a guerrilla war to drive the French out of Indochina .
Today , the Cold War is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is no threat to the Philippines .
Nor is China , though Xi Jinping has occupied and fortified islets like Mischief Reef in the South China Sea that are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines .
There is no U.S. vital interest at risk in these islands to justify an eternal war guarantee or treaty commitment to fight Beijing over rocks and reefs in the South China Sea .
Trump should seize this opportunity to tell Duterte that when the VFA , which guarantees immunity for U.S. forces in the Philippines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Defense Treaty is dissolved .
A message would be sent to Asia , and the world , that Trump was serious when he said that he intends to revisit and review all the defense alliances and war guarantees entered into 60 and 70 years ago , to address threats that no longer exist in a world that no longer exists .
The U.S. has a long history with the Philippines , beginning in the War of 1898 with Spain , when Admiral George 's Dewey 's Asian squadron sank a Spanish fleet in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occupied and colonized the islands , thus emulating Europe 's imperial powers and abandoning the anti-colonial legacy of the Founding Fathers .
`` Take up the White Man 's burden , '' Rudyard Kipling admonished us .
After Filipino patriots fought for nearly four years to liberate their islands from the Americans , as they had from the Spanish , inflicting on U.S. soldiers and Marines thousands of casualties , the New York Herald replied to the Poet of Empire : '' We 've taken up the white man 's burden/Of ebony and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we may put it down . ''
After Pearl Harbor in December 1941 , the Japanese invaded and occupied the islands , until Gen. MacArthur made good in on his famous pledge on leaving Corregidor , `` I shall return . ''
In 1944 , we liberated the islands .
A year after Japan 's surrender , on July 4 , 1946 , we granted the Philippines full independence .
And that nation and people , far more populous and prosperous than in 1946 , should take full custody of the defense of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of the Cold War , nationalists in Manila ordered the U.S. to vacate the great naval base we had built at Subic Bay .
We should have used that expulsion to let the 1951 security treaty lapse .
Trump should not miss this opportunity .
Patrick J. Buchanan needs no introduction to VDARE.COM readers ; his books State of Emergency : The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America , and Suicide of a Superpower : Will America Survive to 2025 ?
are available from Amazon.com .
Patrick J. Buchanan is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority .
His latest book , published May , 2018 , is “ Nixon ’ s White House Wars : The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.
” See Peter Brimelow ’ s review : “ Wheel And Fight ” —Pat Buchanan ’ s Nixon Book Provides Road Map For Trump .

Earlier, by Pat Buchanan: Dump Duterte (For Starters) And The Rest Of The “Entangling Alliances”
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has just given us notice he will be terminating the Visiting Forces Agreement that governs U.S. military personnel in the islands.
His notification starts the clock running on a six-month deadline. If no new agreement is negotiated, the VFA is dissolved.
What triggered the decision?
Duterte was offended that one of his political allies who led his anti-drug campaign in the islands, which involves extrajudicial killings of drug dealers, had been denied a U.S. visa.
Yet, Duterte has never been an enthusiast of the U.S. presence. In 2016, he told his Chinese hosts in Beijing: "I want, maybe in the next two years, my country free of the presence of foreign military troops. I want them out."
The Pentagon is shaken. If there is no VFA, how do we continue to move forces in and out to guarantee our ability to honor the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty? Defense Secretary Mark Esper called Duterte's action "a step in the wrong direction."
President Donald Trump openly disagreed: "If they would like to do that, that's fine. We'll save a lot of money."
The Philippine Islands are among the largest recipients of foreign aid in East Asia, and we've provided $1.3 billion in military assistance over the last two decades. But money shouldn't be the largest consideration here.
Trump has been given a historic opportunity to reshape U.S. and Asia policy along the lines he ran on in 2016.
He should tell Duterte that we accept his decision and that we, too, are giving notice of our decision to let the 1951 treaty lapse. And following expiration of that treaty, the U.S. will be absolved of any legal obligation to come to the defense of the Philippines.
Time for Manila to take charge of its own defense. Indeed, what is the argument for a treaty that virtually dictates U.S. involvement in any future war in 7,600 islands 8,000 miles from the United States?
When we negotiated the 1951 treaty, it was a different world.
We had entered a Cold War with Stalin's USSR. We were in a hot war in Korea that would cost 37,000 U.S. lives. Gen. Douglas MacArthur had just been relieved of his command of U.S. forces in Korea by Harry Truman. A disarmed Japan had not fully recovered from World War II.
The Communist armies of Chairman Mao had overrun China and driven our Nationalist allies off the mainland. The Viet Minh were five years into a guerrilla war to drive the French out of Indochina.
Today, the Cold War is long over. Vladimir Putin's Russia is no threat to the Philippines. Nor is China, though Xi Jinping has occupied and fortified islets like Mischief Reef in the South China Sea that are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
There is no U.S. vital interest at risk in these islands to justify an eternal war guarantee or treaty commitment to fight Beijing over rocks and reefs in the South China Sea.
Trump should seize this opportunity to tell Duterte that when the VFA, which guarantees immunity for U.S. forces in the Philippines, is dissolved, the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty is dissolved.
A message would be sent to Asia, and the world, that Trump was serious when he said that he intends to revisit and review all the defense alliances and war guarantees entered into 60 and 70 years ago, to address threats that no longer exist in a world that no longer exists.
The U.S. has a long history with the Philippines, beginning in the War of 1898 with Spain, when Admiral George's Dewey's Asian squadron sank a Spanish fleet in Manila harbor, and we invaded, occupied and colonized the islands, thus emulating Europe's imperial powers and abandoning the anti-colonial legacy of the Founding Fathers.
"Take up the White Man's burden," Rudyard Kipling admonished us.
After Filipino patriots fought for nearly four years to liberate their islands from the Americans, as they had from the Spanish, inflicting on U.S. soldiers and Marines thousands of casualties, the New York Herald replied to the Poet of Empire:
"We've taken up the white man's burden/Of ebony and brown/Now, will you tell, Rudyard/How we may put it down."
After Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the Japanese invaded and occupied the islands, until Gen. MacArthur made good in on his famous pledge on leaving Corregidor, "I shall return."
In 1944, we liberated the islands.
A year after Japan's surrender, on July 4, 1946, we granted the Philippines full independence. And that nation and people, far more populous and prosperous than in 1946, should take full custody of the defense of their own sovereignty and independence.
At the end of the Cold War, nationalists in Manila ordered the U.S. to vacate the great naval base we had built at Subic Bay. We should have used that expulsion to let the 1951 security treaty lapse.
Trump should not miss this opportunity.
COPYRIGHT 2019 CREATORS.COM
Patrick J. Buchanan needs no introduction to VDARE.COM readers; his books State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America, and Suicide of a Superpower: Will America Survive to 2025? are available from Amazon.com. Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “The Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority.
His latest book, published May, 2018, is “Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.”
See Peter Brimelow’s review: “Wheel And Fight”—Pat Buchanan’s Nixon Book Provides Road Map For Trump.


vdare--2020-02-17--This Day In VDARE.com History, 2014: Never Mind The "Wage Gap" Myth—One In Six Men Not Employed At A

This Day In VDARE.com History, 2014: Never Mind The "Wage Gap" Myth—One In Six Men Not Employed At All!

Originally published 2014 .
In the age of Trump , the unemployment figures are better , but the `` wage gap '' is still BS .
Christina Hoff Sommers , author of Who Stole Feminism ?
and The War Against Boys : How Misguided Feminism Is Harming Our Young Men writes on Twitter : One in Six American Men Not Working More than one in six men between the ages of 25 and 54 is unemployed , says the Wall Street Journal .
More than 10 million men ages 25 to 54 do not have jobs today , a function @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technology and globalization , say economists .
• In the early 1970s , 6 percent of American men 25 to 54 were unemployed .
• By the end of 2007 , 13 percent were out of work .
• In 2009 at the peak of the recession , almost 20 percent of American men were without jobs .
• In December 2013 , that figure was at 17 percent .
Two thirds of these men reported that they were not looking for work , which means that they are not labeled as `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ More ] So what is causing this ?
Is it the `` Age Of Obama '' ?
The Age of Free Trade ?
The Age Of Outsourcing ?
The Age Of Mass Immigration and American Worker Displacement ?
One thing it 's not is the age of `` white male privilege . ''

Originally published 2014. In the age of Trump, the unemployment figures are better, but the "wage gap" is still BS.
Christina Hoff Sommers, author of Who Stole Feminism? and The War Against Boys: How Misguided Feminism Is Harming Our Young Men writes on Twitter:
The gender wage gap "injustice" is a manufactured crisis. That 1 in 6 men ages 25-54 not working is the real thing.
http://t.co/4RMQq9TYoz — Christina Hoff Sommers (@CHSommers) February 17, 2014
Here's what she's linking to:
One in Six American Men Not Working National Center for Policy Analysis February 13, 2014 More than one in six men between the ages of 25 and 54 is unemployed, says the Wall Street Journal. More than 10 million men ages 25 to 54 do not have jobs today, a function of the slow economy as well as technology and globalization, say economists. In the early 1970s, 6 percent of American men 25 to 54 were unemployed.
By the end of 2007, 13 percent were out of work.
In 2009 at the peak of the recession, almost 20 percent of American men were without jobs.
In December 2013, that figure was at 17 percent. Two thirds of these men reported that they were not looking for work, which means that they are not labeled as "unemployed" in official unemployment statistics.[More]
So what is causing this? Is it the "Age Of Obama"? The Age of Free Trade? The Age Of Outsourcing? The Age Of Mass Immigration and American Worker Displacement?
One thing it's not is the age of "white male privilege."


vdare--2020-02-17--Black Chicago Judge Lies About Bail Reform Plan He Ordered...Defendants Released Committed HUNDREDS

Black Chicago Judge Lies About Bail Reform Plan He Ordered...Defendants Released Committed HUNDREDS Of Violent Crimes

Buy Second City Confidential : The Black Experience in Chicago by Paul Kersey and James Kirkpatrick What happens when a black judge in Chicago , who happens to be the chief judge of Cook County , lies about the consequences of reducing or eliminating monetary bail for many defendants ( which he lamented in 2017 disproportionately impacts black and brown criminals ) ?
Because we live in a nation where black people have no agency , and structural racism/implicit whiteness/white privilege is the true evil .
Bail reform analysis by Cook County chief judge based on flawed data , undercounts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February 13 , 2020 Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans for months has defended the bail reform he ordered by citing an analysis produced by the office he runs .
His report , released in May , noted that Chicago saw no increase in violent crime after judges began implementing those reforms by reducing or eliminating monetary bail for many pretrial defendants .
Far more of these defendants were released from custody , yet only “ a very small fraction ” were charged afterward with a new violent offense , the report states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flaws in both the data underlying Evans ’ report and the techniques he used to analyze it — issues that minimize the number of defendants charged with murder and other violent crimes after being released from custody under bail reform .
One central conclusion of Evans ’ analysis was that only 147 felony defendants released from custody in the 15 months after bail reform went on to be charged with new violent crimes , or 0.6 % of the total .
He has called this a “ rare ” occurrence .
But Evans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acceptable to criminologists under some circumstances , was limited to six offenses and excluded numerous others , including domestic battery , assault , assault with a deadly weapon , battery , armed violence and reckless homicide .
Hundreds of these charges were filed against people released after bail reform took effect , according to data Evans provided after the Tribune filed a public records petition to the Illinois Supreme Court .
If those charges were included in the analysis , the total would be at least four times higher , the Tribune found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also was flawed in multiple ways that led to an undercount of murders and other violent crimes allegedly committed by people out on bail .
In one example , the Tribune identified 21 defendants who allegedly committed murder after being released from custody in the 15 months after bail reform .
Evans ’ report said there were three .
Among the reasons for that disparity : • Evans ’ analysis included only those defendants whose initial charge was a felony ; it excluded those charged with a misdemeanor , which is far more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found by the Tribune had bonded out of jail on misdemeanor charges .
Four of them had past felony convictions from attempted murder to armed robbery , and three had served prison time .
• The analysis counted only the first new charge against defendants after they were released from custody .
The Tribune identified two people who were released , charged with another crime , released again and then charged with murder , all within the time period being examined .
Those later murder charges were not entered into the database used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three murder defendants whose first charge occurred before bail reform — even though they were released on bond after the reforms took effect in September 2017 .
• Mistakes in data entry and incomplete court records marred the data set used in the analysis .
In one case , a reputed gang member released on a no-cash bond after a felony gun charge allegedly shot and killed a city Streets and Sanitation worker who was driving home to his three children , in what prosecutors called a case of mistaken identity .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysis because a pretrial risk assessment was not entered into the data set , the Tribune found .
At least 2,334 felony defendants did not receive an assessment — to gauge the likelihood they will commit a crime or fail to reappear if released — and were not part of Evans ’ analysis , his office acknowledged .
“ You always think that if they didn ’ t release him my son would still be alive , and my grandchildren would still have their father , ” said Michelle Jones-Vincent , the mother @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ That ’ s always going through your head .
I always wonder if the outcome would have been different if he would have remained incarcerated and not released on bail .
”

Buy Second City Confidential: The Black Experience in Chicago by Paul Kersey and James Kirkpatrick
What happens when a black judge in Chicago, who happens to be the chief judge of Cook County, lies about the consequences of reducing or eliminating monetary bail for many defendants (which he lamented in 2017 disproportionately impacts black and brown criminals)?
Nothing.
Because we live in a nation where black people have no agency, and structural racism/implicit whiteness/white privilege is the true evil.
Bail reform analysis by Cook County chief judge based on flawed data, undercounts new murder charges, Chicago Tribune, February 13, 2020
Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans for months has defended the bail reform he ordered by citing an analysis produced by the office he runs.
His report, released in May, noted that Chicago saw no increase in violent crime after judges began implementing those reforms by reducing or eliminating monetary bail for many pretrial defendants. Far more of these defendants were released from custody, yet only “a very small fraction” were charged afterward with a new violent offense, the report states.
But a Tribune investigation has found flaws in both the data underlying Evans’ report and the techniques he used to analyze it — issues that minimize the number of defendants charged with murder and other violent crimes after being released from custody under bail reform.
One central conclusion of Evans’ analysis was that only 147 felony defendants released from custody in the 15 months after bail reform went on to be charged with new violent crimes, or 0.6% of the total. He has called this a “rare” occurrence.
But Evans’ definition of violent crime, while acceptable to criminologists under some circumstances, was limited to six offenses and excluded numerous others, including domestic battery, assault, assault with a deadly weapon, battery, armed violence and reckless homicide.
Hundreds of these charges were filed against people released after bail reform took effect, according to data Evans provided after the Tribune filed a public records petition to the Illinois Supreme Court. If those charges were included in the analysis, the total would be at least four times higher, the Tribune found.
The report’s underlying data also was flawed in multiple ways that led to an undercount of murders and other violent crimes allegedly committed by people out on bail.
In one example, the Tribune identified 21 defendants who allegedly committed murder after being released from custody in the 15 months after bail reform. Evans’ report said there were three.
Among the reasons for that disparity:
Evans’ analysis included only those defendants whose initial charge was a felony; it excluded those charged with a misdemeanor, which is far more common. Five of the murder defendants found by the Tribune had bonded out of jail on misdemeanor charges. Four of them had past felony convictions from attempted murder to armed robbery, and three had served prison time.
The analysis counted only the first new charge against defendants after they were released from custody. The Tribune identified two people who were released, charged with another crime, released again and then charged with murder, all within the time period being examined. Those later murder charges were not entered into the database used for the report.
Evans excluded three murder defendants whose first charge occurred before bail reform — even though they were released on bond after the reforms took effect in September 2017.
Mistakes in data entry and incomplete court records marred the data set used in the analysis.
In one case, a reputed gang member released on a no-cash bond after a felony gun charge allegedly shot and killed a city Streets and Sanitation worker who was driving home to his three children, in what prosecutors called a case of mistaken identity.
That defendant was not included in Evans’ analysis because a pretrial risk assessment was not entered into the data set, the Tribune found. At least 2,334 felony defendants did not receive an assessment — to gauge the likelihood they will commit a crime or fail to reappear if released — and were not part of Evans’ analysis, his office acknowledged.
“You always think that if they didn’t release him my son would still be alive, and my grandchildren would still have their father,” said Michelle Jones-Vincent, the mother of the victim, Terrell Jones. “That’s always going through your head. I always wonder if the outcome would have been different if he would have remained incarcerated and not released on bail.”


vdare--2020-02-17--The Latest Brouhaha: Tory Data Scientist Andrew Sabisky KNOWS TOO MUCH About Race And IQ

I ’ ve long made fun of the Republican Brain Trust for consisting of bears of very little brain like Karl Rove .
But Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson employs an advisor , Dominic Cummings , who actually is really smart .
Cummings recently advertised on his blog for … There is a huge amount of low hanging fruit — trillion dollar bills lying on the street — in the intersection of : • the selection , education and training of people for high performance – the frontiers of the science of prediction – data science , AI and cognitive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ authoring tools designed for arguing from evidence ’ , Tetlock/IARPA prediction tournaments that could easily be extended to consider ‘ clusters ’ of issues around themes like Brexit to improve policy and project management ) – communication ( e.g Cialdini ) – decision-making institutions at the apex of government .
We want to hire an unusual set of people with different skills and backgrounds to work in Downing Street with the best officials , some as spads and perhaps some as officials .
If you are already an official and you read this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these categories , get in touch .
Data scientists and software developers Economists Policy experts Project managers Communication experts Junior researchers one of whom will also be my personal assistant Weirdos and misfits with odd skills We want to improve performance and make me much less important — and within a year largely redundant .
At the moment I have to make decisions well outside what Charlie Munger calls my ‘ circle of competence ’ and we do not have the sort of expertise supporting the PM and ministers that is needed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ properly serve the public .
So one of the weirdos hired was Andrew Sabisky , a 27 year old Anglican and super-forecaster .
Lots of Sabisky ’ s old random web comments are being scrutinized , with everybody acting shocked , shocked .
For example , from the Daily Mail today : He ’ s being dragged for having submitted a comment in 2014 ( when he was about 21 ) to somebody else ’ s blog that asked for an explanation of why : There are large differences in disabilities–or at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white students .
I don ’ t know if this is because students come to school with different disabilities , or if it is because the education system treats black and white students different with respect to disabilities .
… Black students are shockingly more likely to receive services for “ Emotional Disturbance ” or “ Intellectual Disability.
” Sabisky helpfully explained what has been Settled Science since Arthur Jensen ’ s 1969 Harvard Education Review article : If the mean black American IQ is ( best estimate based on a century ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as compared to a mean white American IQ of 100 , then if IQ is normally distributed ( which it is ) , you will see a far greater percentage of blacks than whites in the range of IQs 75 or below , at which point we are close to the typical boundary for mild mental retardation .
Typically criminals with IQs below 70 can not be executed in the USA , I believe .
That parsimoniously explains the greater diagnostic rates for blacks when it comes to “ Intellectual disability ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal distribution of cognitive ability , because there are significant differences in the group means .
No idea about the “ emotional disturbance ” bit , though .
In the mid-1960s , Jensen , a top professor of educational psychology at Berkeley , was asked to look into a mystery besetting a local school : most of the white children who were declared to be suffering from intellectual disability because they had IQs below 70 were visibly suffering from Down Syndrome or some other Funny Looking Kid problem and were seen as retarded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the other hand , a much larger fraction of the black students scoring below 70 were normal-looking and socialized fine on the playground .
What was wrong with the IQ test ?
After intensive research , Jensen finally came to the conclusion that the IQ tests were fine : they predicted the future equally accurately for both whites and blacks .
The cause was that whites and blacks had a difference in average of IQ of about one standard deviation ( 15 points ) , so 70 was two standard deviations below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but only one standard deviation below the black mean ( 16th percentile ) .
As Linda Gottfredson explained in a 2002 article I wrote about the Supreme Court ’ s decision banning the death penalty for murderers with IQs below about 70 : The researchers said that the majority of low IQ individuals do not suffer from medical problems such as Down ’ s Syndrome .
Gottfredson noted , “ About 75 percent-80 percent of mental retardation is called ‘ familial , ’ because it mostly just represents the unlucky combinations of genes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from parents to children .
Only a small proportion of mental retardation is due to organic problems , such as chromosomal abnormalities or brain damage .
This is just like height .
Most very short people are perfectly normal.
” The stereotype that most low IQ children are what obstetricians often callously refer to in their notes as FLKs – “ Funny Looking Kids ” is not true .
Elite members of American society tend not to realize this because when an extremely high-IQ person , such as a Supreme Court justice , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s generally due to organic causes .
Interestingly , the Berkeley schools were discovered , a half century later , to have the largest white-black gap of any public school district in the country .

I’ve long made fun of the Republican Brain Trust for consisting of bears of very little brain like Karl Rove. But Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson employs an advisor, Dominic Cummings, who actually is really smart.
Cummings recently advertised on his blog for
‘Two hands are a lot’ — we’re hiring data scientists, project managers, policy experts, assorted weirdos… … There is a huge amount of low hanging fruit — trillion dollar bills lying on the street — in the intersection of: the selection, education and training of people for high performance
– the frontiers of the science of prediction
– data science, AI and cognitive technologies (e.g Seeing Rooms, ‘authoring tools designed for arguing from evidence’, Tetlock/IARPA prediction tournaments that could easily be extended to consider ‘clusters’ of issues around themes like Brexit to improve policy and project management)
– communication (e.g Cialdini)
– decision-making institutions at the apex of government. We want to hire an unusual set of people with different skills and backgrounds to work in Downing Street with the best officials, some as spads and perhaps some as officials. If you are already an official and you read this blog and think you fit one of these categories, get in touch. The categories are roughly: Data scientists and software developers
Economists
Policy experts
Project managers
Communication experts
Junior researchers one of whom will also be my personal assistant
Weirdos and misfits with odd skills We want to improve performance and make me much less important — and within a year largely redundant. At the moment I have to make decisions well outside what Charlie Munger calls my ‘circle of competence’ and we do not have the sort of expertise supporting the PM and ministers that is needed. This must change fast so we can properly serve the public.
So one of the weirdos hired was Andrew Sabisky, a 27-year old Anglican and super-forecaster. Lots of Sabisky’s old random web comments are being scrutinized, with everybody acting shocked, shocked. For example, from the Daily Mail today:
New calls for No10 to sack ‘weirdo’ advisor Andrew Sabisky, 27, who claimed black people are mentally inferior and advocated forcing ‘underclass’ to use contraception to boost society’s overall IQs
Ministers and special advisers are flatly refusing to work with Andrew Sabisky
The new hiring advocates extreme positions to enforce teenage contraception
He answered Number 10’s call for ‘weirdos and misfits’ and is now in Number 10
By JOE MIDDLETON and JACK ELSOM FOR MAILONLINE PUBLISHED: 19:52 EST, 16 February 2020 | UPDATED: 21:32 EST, 16 February 2020
He’s being dragged for having submitted a comment in 2014 (when he was about 21) to somebody else’s blog that asked for an explanation of why:
There are large differences in disabilities–or at least in disabilities treated in school–between black and white students. I don’t know if this is because students come to school with different disabilities, or if it is because the education system treats black and white students different with respect to disabilities. … Black students are shockingly more likely to receive services for “Emotional Disturbance” or “Intellectual Disability.”
Any readers know what’s going on here?
Sabisky helpfully explained what has been Settled Science since Arthur Jensen’s 1969 Harvard Education Review article:
If the mean black American IQ is (best estimate based on a century’s worth of data) around 85, as compared to a mean white American IQ of 100, then if IQ is normally distributed (which it is), you will see a far greater percentage of blacks than whites in the range of IQs 75 or below, at which point we are close to the typical boundary for mild mental retardation. Typically criminals with IQs below 70 cannot be executed in the USA, I believe. That parsimoniously explains the greater diagnostic rates for blacks when it comes to “Intellectual disability”. It simply a consequence of the normal distribution of cognitive ability, because there are significant differences in the group means. No idea about the “emotional disturbance” bit, though.
In the mid-1960s, Jensen, a top professor of educational psychology at Berkeley, was asked to look into a mystery besetting a local school: Most of the white children who were declared to be suffering from intellectual disability because they had IQs below 70 were visibly suffering from Down Syndrome or some other Funny Looking Kid problem and were seen as retarded by their classmates on the playground. On the other hand, a much larger fraction of the black students scoring below 70 were normal-looking and socialized fine on the playground. What was wrong with the IQ test?
After intensive research, Jensen finally came to the conclusion that the IQ tests were fine: They predicted the future equally accurately for both whites and blacks. The cause was that whites and blacks had a difference in average of IQ of about one standard deviation (15 points), so 70 was two standard deviations below the white mean (2nd percentile) but only one standard deviation below the black mean (16th percentile).
As Linda Gottfredson explained in a 2002 article I wrote about the Supreme Court’s decision banning the death penalty for murderers with IQs below about 70:
The researchers said that the majority of low IQ individuals do not suffer from medical problems such as Down’s Syndrome. Gottfredson noted, “About 75 percent-80 percent of mental retardation is called ‘familial,’ because it mostly just represents the unlucky combinations of genes that are passed in the normal manner from parents to children. Only a small proportion of mental retardation is due to organic problems, such as chromosomal abnormalities or brain damage. This is just like height. Most very short people are perfectly normal.” The stereotype that most low IQ children are what obstetricians often callously refer to in their notes as FLKs – “Funny Looking Kids” is not true. Elite members of American society tend not to realize this because when an extremely high-IQ person, such as a Supreme Court justice, has a retarded child, it’s generally due to organic causes.
Interestingly, the Berkeley schools were discovered, a half century later, to have the largest white-black gap of any public school district in the country.
[Comment at Unz.com]