vdare--2020-03-13--GUARDIAN: Actually, Boris Johnson's Virus Strategy Is Sensible

Earlier : UK Coronavirus Strategy : Lie Back and Think of England From The Guardian on the British government ’ s virus strategy : Considering how bad the peak is likely to be , a 10-15 % reduction sounds okay to me .
The British have been relying on a 2011 planning process .
A big question is whether they ’ ve fully updated from their 2011 simulation to the realities of the 2020 virus .
That reminds me that America has a lot of modeling talent in its baseball analyst hobbyists .
Since there probably won ’ t be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me point out that epidemics are interesting to analyze statistically too .
We could use some independent perspectives from bright young outsiders .
The 2020 Society for American Baseball Research analytics conference is supposed to begin this afternoon in Phoenix .
I don ’ t know whether it will happen or not , but a good topic would be how sabermetricians can contribute to The Effort .
Us oldsters are too old to wrap our brains around a new discipline , at least below the Nick Patterson-level of intelligence , but the younger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ As we all know , kids these days are insatiable for face to face socializing .
They refuse to stay in their rooms and stare at their screens .
Guardian Today : the headlines , the analysis , the debate – sent direct to you Read more The updated guidance asks people to self-isolate at home for seven days if they have a new and persistent cough for up to four hours and a temperature of 37.8C and above .
These are considered to be mild symptoms of coronavirus and people do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their condition dramatically worsens , the government said .
Following this advice is thought to be an effective way of reducing the peak number of cases by up to 20 % .
The seven-day period is based on people being infectious just as their symptoms start to show and for a week afterwards .
In the future , the government may ask a whole household to isolate for two weeks if one person is affected .
The future is NOW .
How about people watch soccer at home ?
Scotland has taken a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 500 people from Monday to free up emergency services .
Experts have warned consistently about the importance of not moving ahead too quickly with dramatic lifestyle changes to try to deal with the virus .
Anything too onerous suggested by the government – such as a two-week isolation period for a whole household – might be adopted enthusiastically for a few weeks but then people get bored and leave their homes just as the peak of the illness hits , the government fears .
A complete and immediate “ lockdown ” on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ short time but it would return once measures are lifted , the government believes .
Instead , the aim is to push the peak back toward the summer months and bring in more stringent measures down the line .
I don ’ t know … This sounds to me like exactly the wrong idea , but what do I know ?
My thinking is that if you slam it hard now when there aren ’ t many cases , it ’ s more likely to die out than if you slam it hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Am I wrong about this ?
Lotsa luck with getting a seat more than 2 rows from the infected person … Also , passengers on the London Tube are advised to lick handrails .
So … Italy is still two months away from the peak ?
This peak thing that you speak of blithely , it does not sound so good to me .
Hey , they ’ re looking .
You can ’ t expect them to necessarily find more supplies .
This isn ’ t World War II when Six Companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new Liberty-class cargo ship every 18 hours .
iSteve commenter eugyppius writes in response to the UK ’ s rather laissez-faire response to the virus : Look , nobody will read this down here at the bottom , but in response to comments supporting the UK strategy above : 1 ) Measures necessary to flatten the curve ( slow the rate of new infections so it does not swamp hospitals ) and squash the curve ( drive r0 under 1 ) , as people have been pointing out for a while , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They are both extreme .
2 ) What the UK is openly confessing to doing , what Germany is secretly planning on doing ( but now they are closing schools , so they are taking more steps ) , along with perhaps also Spain , is not very much of anything .
Banning large gatherings is not going to slow the curve .
It will have no measurable effect .
3 ) Germany at least , and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy , is reacting to the virus in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the known state of the infection today is the actual state .
They are saying “ of course many more people with mild symptoms are not recorded.
” They are saying that they will take measures later if things get worse .
Things are *already guaranteed to be several orders of magnitude worse* because a portion of those mild cases will become critical and a portion of incubating invisible cases will become mild .
By the time they get worse they will be *several orders of magnitude worse again* This will keep happening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubtful that populations will find merely enduring a sudden pandemic wave acceptable .
We are talking about the vast majority of all healthcare resources , maybe 75 % to 80 % , going to supporting the respiration of people 65 years and older .
We are talking about apparent mortality creeping up to 6 % as now in Italy .
We are talking about parents and grandparents being turned away and left to suffocate outside in a tent .
We are talking about vastly reduced resources for almost all other health problems .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ you have a stroke , you break your arm , you get a kidney infection , you have a heart attack : All of that happens , for several months , in a world where healthcare resources are 25 % what they are now .
The CDC has been saying masks are ineffective .
What a mistake !
That is completely wrong .
Simple masks are obviously very effective !
East asians have known this for at least a generation .
The Chinese and Koreans instantly stopped CoronaVirus cold the minute everyone started @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might be enough to get the R0 value below 1 , which stops an outbreak .
President Xi just toured Wuhan and declared victory .
He was wearing a simple facemask .
Famed Yale Virologist Iwasaki on twitter recently to her 15000 followers , “ A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified .
I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason , where 10 % relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.
” I would once have said not to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing panic , but I really don ’ t think the panic can get any worse at this point .
We need about 10 billion N95 facemasks per month in America .
At the moment , we are ridiculously short of N95s .
I bought 20 a couple of weeks ago for some absurd price per unit that I only agreed to because I ’ d hit the Stolichnaya hard .
But it was one of the better decisions I ever made .
Every household needs some in case a member gets the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Then , when it ’ s time to get the economy going again , everybody should wear a mask , perhaps until they ’ ve gotten inoculated with the vaccine , which is likely to be in the spring of 2021 .

Earlier: UK Coronavirus Strategy: Lie Back and Think of England
From The Guardian on the British government’s virus strategy:
UK government’s coronavirus advice – and why it gave it The action plan’s recommendations differed significantly from measures imposed in other countries Kate Proctor Thu 12 Mar 2020 While school closures can be effective in the case of a flu pandemic, large-scale shutdowns are not thought to be an obvious next step in dealing with the virus in the UK, the government said. Closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%.
Considering how bad the peak is likely to be, a 10-15% reduction sounds okay to me.
Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms, as advised by the government, have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective.
The British have been relying on a 2011 planning process. A big question is whether they’ve fully updated from their 2011 simulation to the realities of the 2020 virus.
That reminds me that America has a lot of modeling talent in its baseball analyst hobbyists. Since there probably won’t be any baseball for some time, let me point out that epidemics are interesting to analyze statistically too. We could use some independent perspectives from bright young outsiders.
The 2020 Society for American Baseball Research analytics conference is supposed to begin this afternoon in Phoenix. I don’t know whether it will happen or not, but a good topic would be how sabermetricians can contribute to The Effort. Us oldsters are too old to wrap our brains around a new discipline, at least below the Nick Patterson-level of intelligence, but the younger men could pitch in and help.
Experts also believe it would be difficult for school closures to work in practice, as children off school would end up socialising anyway or spending time with grandparents, who would be worse-affected by the virus. Schools will be asked to stop foreign trips.
As we all know, kids these days are insatiable for face to face socializing. They refuse to stay in their rooms and stare at their screens.
Self-isolation Guardian Today: the headlines, the analysis, the debate – sent direct to you
Read more
The updated guidance asks people to self-isolate at home for seven days if they have a new and persistent cough for up to four hours and a temperature of 37.8C and above. These are considered to be mild symptoms of coronavirus and people do not need to ring 111 for advice unless their condition dramatically worsens, the government said. Following this advice is thought to be an effective way of reducing the peak number of cases by up to 20%. The seven-day period is based on people being infectious just as their symptoms start to show and for a week afterwards. In the future, the government may ask a whole household to isolate for two weeks if one person is affected.
Why wait for “the future?”
The future is NOW.
The government believes that banning large gatherings is one of the least effective measures a country can take, reducing the peak of the coronavirus by less than 5%. The virus is just as likely to spread within a smaller group such as those watching football in the pub as it would in a large crowd.
How about people watch soccer at home?
Scotland has taken a different decision, banning events of more than 500 people from Monday to free up emergency services. Experts have warned consistently about the importance of not moving ahead too quickly with dramatic lifestyle changes to try to deal with the virus. Anything too onerous suggested by the government – such as a two-week isolation period for a whole household – might be adopted enthusiastically for a few weeks but then people get bored and leave their homes just as the peak of the illness hits, the government fears. A complete and immediate “lockdown” on movement could suppress the virus for a short time but it would return once measures are lifted, the government believes. Instead, the aim is to push the peak back toward the summer months and bring in more stringent measures down the line.
I don’t know … This sounds to me like exactly the wrong idea, but what do I know? My thinking is that if you slam it hard now when there aren’t many cases, it’s more likely to die out than if you slam it hard later when there a million cases.
Am I wrong about this?
Flights
Donald Trump has banned citizens from 26 European Schengen area countries from travelling to the US for 30 days. The decision will not be replicated in the UK following the advice of the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser. The measure is not effective unless 95% of flights are stopped, the government said, when in reality only 50% stoppage is likely to be achievable. If you are to fly, the World Health Organization guidance suggests the highest-risk area is the two rows in front, behind or next to an infected person.
Lotsa luck with getting a seat more than 2 rows from the infected person …
There will now be a shift in testing. The contain phase was about isolating individual cases, getting a diagnosis and then “contact-tracing” the people they have spent time with and asking them to self-isolate. Many people will no longer be tested if they are showing mild symptoms. Instead, those with the most serious symptoms will be given a blood test in a hospital, and the NHS will move into a phase of prioritising the most seriously ill.
Also, passengers on the London Tube are advised to lick handrails.
The peak
Scientists and medics are using this phrase a lot, and it means the highest potential rate of cases. For the UK, the peak is expected to fall in three months’ time, likely in the summer months, and tail off throughout the autumn, the government said. Vallance said that the UK is around four weeks behind Italy, where there have been 1,000 deaths and more than 15,000 cases.
So … Italy is still two months away from the peak? This peak thing that you speak of blithely, it does not sound so good to me.
The peak also brings the biggest period of challenge for the NHS. There are 5,000 ventilated beds but the service is looking to increase that number. Without a cure, the main treatment is oxygen therapy, which can be provided through a mask, and the NHS is looking to increase supplies.
Hey, they’re looking. You can’t expect them to necessarily find more supplies. This isn’t World War II when Six Companies, led by Henry Kaiser, built a new Liberty-class cargo ship every 18 hours.
iSteve commenter eugyppius writes in response to the UK’s rather laissez-faire response to the virus:
Look, nobody will read this down here at the bottom, but in response to comments supporting the UK strategy above: 1) Measures necessary to flatten the curve (slow the rate of new infections so it does not swamp hospitals) and squash the curve (drive r0 under 1), as people have been pointing out for a while, look very similar to each other. They are both extreme. 2) What the UK is openly confessing to doing, what Germany is secretly planning on doing (but now they are closing schools, so they are taking more steps), along with perhaps also Spain, is not very much of anything. Banning large gatherings is not going to slow the curve. It will have no measurable effect. 3) Germany at least, and I assume other EU countries aside from Italy, is reacting to the virus in the moment. They are speaking as if the known state of the infection today is the actual state. They are saying “of course many more people with mild symptoms are not recorded.” They are saying that they will take measures later if things get worse. Things are *already guaranteed to be several orders of magnitude worse* because a portion of those mild cases will become critical and a portion of incubating invisible cases will become mild. By the time they get worse they will be *several orders of magnitude worse again* This will keep happening. 4) I find it very doubtful that populations will find merely enduring a sudden pandemic wave acceptable. We are talking about the vast majority of all healthcare resources, maybe 75% to 80%, going to supporting the respiration of people 65 years and older. We are talking about apparent mortality creeping up to 6% as now in Italy. We are talking about parents and grandparents being turned away and left to suffocate outside in a tent. We are talking about vastly reduced resources for almost all other health problems. You are in a car accident, you have a stroke, you break your arm, you get a kidney infection, you have a heart attack: All of that happens, for several months, in a world where healthcare resources are 25% what they are now.
iSteve commenter DanHessInMD says:
The CDC has been saying masks are ineffective. What a mistake! That is completely wrong. Simple masks are obviously very effective! East asians have known this for at least a generation. The Chinese and Koreans instantly stopped CoronaVirus cold the minute everyone started wearing masks. I think that alone might be enough to get the R0 value below 1, which stops an outbreak. President Xi just toured Wuhan and declared victory. He was wearing a simple facemask. Famed Yale Virologist Iwasaki on twitter recently to her 15000 followers, “A mask will certainly keep your nose and mouth warmer and more humidified. I always wear a mask on international flights for this reason, where 10% relative humidity and closed environment makes for a perfect transmission incubator.” Useful info? I would once have said not to wear a facemask on account of not causing panic, but I really don’t think the panic can get any worse at this point.
We need about 10 billion N95 facemasks per month in America. At the moment, we are ridiculously short of N95s. I bought 20 a couple of weeks ago for some absurd price per unit that I only agreed to because I’d hit the Stolichnaya hard. But it was one of the better decisions I ever made. Every household needs some in case a member gets the virus so everybody needs to mask up.
Then, when it’s time to get the economy going again, everybody should wear a mask, perhaps until they’ve gotten inoculated with the vaccine, which is likely to be in the spring of 2021.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-13--"Making A Meal Of The Market"—Peter Brimelow On The '74,'87,  '2016,  '2020,  And All Future Crashes

"Making A Meal Of The Market"—Peter Brimelow On The '74,'87,  '2016,  '2020,  And All Future Crashes: DON'T PANIC!

Earlier ( 2008 ) Brimelow On The Bailout , The Patriot Party , And The ` 87 Crash Earlier a young friend of mine was upset by the Dow Crash—and if you did n't notice this crash , do n't worry , the Dow is `` rallying aggressively `` —and asked `` Have you ever seen anything like this ? ''
and of course , the answer is , yes , of course , repeatedly ...
I 'm old .
This column about Black Monday , a now forgotten stock market crash , was written in 1987 .
We republished @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Great Recession , and noted it again when Brexit panic caused a stock market glitch .
I 'd add something from my 1986 book The Wall Street Gurus : How You Can Profit From Investment Newsletters , in which newsletter editor Charles Allmon , who died in 2015 at 94 , said about the even earlier 1974 crash .
I was speaking in Detroit that October [ 1974 . ]
There were about 700 people at that meeting .
And I said that I felt this was just about the best buying opportunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Great Depression .
And would they please hold up their hands , those investors who planned to buy .
I only saw five hands go up .
They were absolutely terrified .
Well , those five , I asked , “ Would you please see me after my talk here , because I ’ d like to get your opinion.
” Do you know that every one of those people were over 75 years of age ?
Making A Meal Of The Market , By Peter Brimelow , The Times [ London , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NEW YORK–The lot of a financial journalist is not , totally , a happy one .
The subject is inherently intractable .
None of your colleagues want to read about it .
Your audience of specialized business troglodytes usually know more than you do .
They do n't hesitate to say so .
How very different is the professional life of the political writer–courted by hostesses , fawned on by elected officials and , indeed , actually more influential than most of them .
Adding insult to injury , those of us laboring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from our tasks to find our humble corner invaded by these glamorous creatures .
They grandly strike poses amid the potatoes and trample down the turnips before departing amid cries of self congratulation on there versatility .
In the second week since the Wall Street crash , [ `` Black Monday , '' October 19 , 1987 ] this posturing is all-pervasive .
The intrusion is all the more noticeable in America because the financial and political capitals are so far apart .
New York and Washington are rarely talking about the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is therefore peculiarly irritating when the latter starts to tell the former what financial market movements really mean .
Particularly when this hidden meaning turns out to be something the Washington establishment and its media allies have been proclaiming for a decade–the imperative need to raise taxes .
My own conclusion , after years of writing about the stock market , is that no one knows what its tergiversations signify .
In a general sense , the market reflects economic prospects , but its particular fluctuations are too wild to be satisfactorily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even its long-term movements can be anomalous–no one has explained why the American stock markets lagged behind inflation throughout the 1970s before exploding upward in 1982 .
Listening to what active traders say is the most useless tactic of all .
Notwithstanding their professional assurance , traders live by their viscera , not their intellect , and will abandon even the most fervently offered rationalization at the drop of a price .
`` In general , run quickly , '' wrote Bernard Baruch , one of the greatest of them , in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1929 crash .
It applies to ideas as well as investments .
This is not say that I think the market is completely unpredictable .
I 've even written a book arguing that some American investment newsletters have been able consistently to beat it .
But consistently beating the market is extremely hard , requiring close attention and ( probably ) experience .
Almost every major trading technique seems to work , in the right hands .
Political prognostication , however , is not among them .
It 's not inconceivable that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the last two weeks , just as it absorbed serious breaks in 1937 and 1962 .
( The same can not be said for stockbrokers–Wall Streeters are clearly nearing physical and emotional exhaustion , and some will bear the financial and psychological scars for life . )
A number of the most successful investment letters are still bullish .
Dr Martin Zweig of the Zweig Forecast , who sold his stocks before the crash and made a 9 per cent gain on Black Monday with options , has cautiously re-entered the market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buying opportunity '' .
For that matter , if the stock market is indeed to be viewed as a referendum on Reaganomics , as Washington claims , it must be remembered that even now it stands twice as high as when Reagan took office–whereas at the end of the Carter Administration , the Dow was about where it was 14 years earlier .
Some Wall Street veterans , applying the principle of Occam 's Razor , find it helpful to think of the stock market as a vicious beast , constantly plotting how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people .
It might well find those Washingtonians now confidently celebrating the end of the Reagan era a tempting target .
Of course , if the stock market does recover , Washingtonians will quickly find some other subject to pontificate about .
But at least hard-working financial journalists will be left unirritated in their decent obscurity .

Earlier (2008) Brimelow On The Bailout, The Patriot Party, And The `87 Crash
Earlier a young friend of mine was upset by the Dow Crash—and if you didn't notice this crash, don't worry, the Dow is "rallying aggressively "—and asked "Have you ever seen anything like this?" and of course, the answer is, yes, of course, repeatedly...I'm old.
This column about Black Monday, a now forgotten stock market crash, was written in 1987. We republished it here at the start of the Great Recession, and noted it again when Brexit panic caused a stock market glitch.
In 2008, I wrote
Rereading it, I am stuck by the similarities with the current situation. Then, as now, there was real panic and the Democrats were using the opportunity to advance their long-standing agenda—then more taxes, now more regulation. Then, as now, the panic took no account of the enormous gains the market had made in the preceding few years. Then, as now, there was little sense that the market, and the economy, can absorb tremendous blows. (As it did).
I'd add something from my 1986 book The Wall Street Gurus: How You Can Profit From Investment Newsletters, in which newsletter editor Charles Allmon, who died in 2015 at 94, said about the even earlier 1974 crash.
I was speaking in Detroit that October [1974.] There were about 700 people at that meeting. And I said that I felt this was just about the best buying opportunity that they’d seen since the Great Depression. And would they please hold up their hands, those investors who planned to buy. I only saw five hands go up. They were absolutely terrified. Well, those five, I asked, “Would you please see me after my talk here, because I’d like to get your opinion.” Do you know that every one of those people were over 75 years of age?
Experience counts.
Making A Meal Of The Market, By Peter Brimelow, The Times [London, England], October 31, 1987
NEW YORK–The lot of a financial journalist is not, totally, a happy one. The subject is inherently intractable. None of your colleagues want to read about it. Your audience of specialized business troglodytes usually know more than you do. They don't hesitate to say so.
How very different is the professional life of the political writer–courted by hostesses, fawned on by elected officials and, indeed, actually more influential than most of them. Adding insult to injury, those of us laboring in the financial field periodically look up from our tasks to find our humble corner invaded by these glamorous creatures. They grandly strike poses amid the potatoes and trample down the turnips before departing amid cries of self congratulation on their versatility.
In the second week since the Wall Street crash, ["Black Monday," October 19, 1987] this posturing is all-pervasive. The intrusion is all the more noticeable in America because the financial and political capitals are so far apart. New York and Washington are rarely talking about the same thing–the Iran-Contra agitation excited little comment here–and it is therefore peculiarly irritating when the latter starts to tell the former what financial market movements really mean. Particularly when this hidden meaning turns out to be something the Washington establishment and its media allies have been proclaiming for a decade–the imperative need to raise taxes.
My own conclusion, after years of writing about the stock market, is that no one knows what its tergiversations signify. In a general sense, the market reflects economic prospects, but its particular fluctuations are too wild to be satisfactorily related to anything other than themselves. Even its long-term movements can be anomalous–no one has explained why the American stock markets lagged behind inflation throughout the 1970s before exploding upward in 1982.
Listening to what active traders say is the most useless tactic of all. Notwithstanding their professional assurance, traders live by their viscera, not their intellect, and will abandon even the most fervently offered rationalization at the drop of a price. "In general, run quickly," wrote Bernard Baruch, one of the greatest of them, in a memorandum to himself about his experiences in the 1929 crash. It applies to ideas as well as investments.
This is not to say that I think the market is completely unpredictable. I've even written a book arguing that some American investment newsletters have been able consistently to beat it. But consistently beating the market is extremely hard, requiring close attention and (probably) experience. Almost every major trading technique seems to work, in the right hands. Political prognostication, however, is not among them.
It's not inconceivable that the stock market can absorb the damage of the last two weeks, just as it absorbed serious breaks in 1937 and 1962. (The same cannot be said for stockbrokers–Wall Streeters are clearly nearing physical and emotional exhaustion, and some will bear the financial and psychological scars for life.)
A number of the most successful investment letters are still bullish. Dr Martin Zweig of the Zweig Forecast, who sold his stocks before the crash and made a 9 per cent gain on Black Monday with options, has cautiously re-entered the market with an eye to a big "buying opportunity".
For that matter, if the stock market is indeed to be viewed as a referendum on Reaganomics, as Washington claims, it must be remembered that even now it stands twice as high as when Reagan took office–whereas at the end of the Carter Administration, the Dow was about where it was 14 years earlier.
Some Wall Street veterans, applying the principle of Occam's Razor, find it helpful to think of the stock market as a vicious beast, constantly plotting how to hurt the largest possible number of people. It might well find those Washingtonians now confidently celebrating the end of the Reagan era a tempting target.
Of course, if the stock market does recover, Washingtonians will quickly find some other subject to pontificate about. But at least hard-working financial journalists will be left unirritated in their decent obscurity.


vdare--2020-03-13--What Trump Should Do: “Arguably Wrong” Ballparks Three Different Strategies

Here , stayed up too late working on this .
Let me know what you think and then I ’ ll post it to be shared .
I had to split the figure into two because the three curves don ’ t fit on the same plot .
Key points that might be useful to point out to decisionmakers : * Both the moderate and strict approaches keep you from overloading hospital capacity * No controls is very bad * No controls ends the epidemic around a year from now * Moderate controls ends the epidemic late in 2021 * @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the epidemic is Election Day * With strict controls , the epidemic is over and under control by September * Strict controls means now , and hard , the same way the Chinese did , not a week from now and not pussyfooting around .
The first graph is the now famous # FlattenTheCurve graph .
It ’ s better than nothing but not as good as # CrushTheCurveNow ( the second graph ) .
In other words , a Wuhan style lockdown would get the epidemic over by summer .
An Angela @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one million Americans would incrementally die , the plurality of them Trump voters , with the peak death rate around Election Day .
( Do you understand what this would mean ? )
A let it rip response would run into mid 2021 with 2.5 million incremental deaths .
Do it NOW .
In response , commenter Probably Wrong , who is not Arguably Wrong , writes : Hate to spoil the panic parade but what if everyone is wrong ?
1 ) What if hospitalization and death rates have been greatly exaggerated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rationed in all countries since the outbreak .
Until now , those being tested are the subset of the population sick enough to want to be tested or those with specific risks like fever and recent travel to China .
We also know some percentage of cases are asymptomatic .
Most analysts indicate there are vastly more cases in the wild than reported by official testing .
That is actually good news !
It indicates the true hospitalization rate is much lower than the reported rate .
If that is true , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or millions of deaths is much lower than suspected .
Another suggestive point is the severity of the flu season .
This has been driven by the flu vaccine being unusually ineffective this year .
This is more speculative , but what if many “ flu ” cases were actually coronavirus ?
That would explain the vaccine not working as expected .
It would also mean the US health system has absorbed many times the coronavirus cases as currently supposed without collapsing .
2 ) What if Italy and Iran are outliers ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ % and Iran is unknown but presumably high .
So far the death rates in the rest of Europe range from 0.1 % in Germany and Switzerland to 0.2 % in Spain as of this writing .
There are reasons to think the worst case countries are outliers rather than inevitabilities .
Italy ’ s population is unusually elderly and the most affected state has close ties to China .
Iran ’ s infrastructure has been hurt by decades of sanctions .
Both countries have higher than average smoking rates .
3 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates are wrong ?
Any straight line estimate ignores Farr ’ s law , which indicates the end of an epidemic will generally be as swift as its onset .
Additionally , epidemiologic evidence is suggestive that coronavirus will be much like other respiratory viruses in being suppressed by warmer weather .
So far the southern hemisphere has seen very little spread .
With warmer weather incoming there is likely to be relief in the northern hemisphere in the next month .
Lockdown measures are not without costs .
Most of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with higher death rates from all causes .
I have not seen any report from expert or armchair analyst alike that includes error bars in the analysis and I suspect we should be far more uncertain about outcomes here than we currently are .

“Arguably Wrong” emails:
Here, stayed up too late working on this. Let me know what you think and then I’ll post it to be shared. I had to split the figure into two because the three curves don’t fit on the same plot. Key points that might be useful to point out to decisionmakers:
* Both the moderate and strict approaches keep you from overloading hospital capacity
* No controls is very bad
* No controls ends the epidemic around a year from now
* Moderate controls ends the epidemic late in 2021
* With moderate controls, the peak of the epidemic is Election Day
* With strict controls, the epidemic is over and under control by September
* Strict controls means now, and hard, the same way the Chinese did, not a week from now and not pussyfooting around.
The first graph is the now famous #FlattenTheCurve graph. It’s better than nothing but not as good as #CrushTheCurveNow (the second graph).
In other words, a Wuhan-style lockdown would get the epidemic over by summer.
An Angela Merkel-style moderate response would imply that about one million Americans would incrementally die, the plurality of them Trump voters, with the peak death rate around Election Day. (Do you understand what this would mean?)
A let it rip response would run into mid 2021 with 2.5 million incremental deaths.
Do it NOW.
In response, commenter Probably Wrong, who is not Arguably Wrong, writes:


vdare--2020-03-13--2019: ACLU Says DC Police Arrest Too Many Blacks; 2020: Black Female DC Sergeant Says City UNDERREPO

2019: ACLU Says DC Police Arrest Too Many Blacks; 2020: Black Female DC Sergeant Says City UNDERREPORTS Black Crime

Let ’ s play shot and chaser , shall we ?
This might be the most revealing game of shot and chaser ever , but we ’ ll leave it to you to decide .
DC Police are arresting black people at 10 times the rate they arrest white people : Five years of arrest data obtained by the ACLU show that even in predominantly white neighborhoods , police are arresting a disproportionate number of blacks .
Many of the arrests are for non-violent , relatively minor offenses.
, WUSA.com , May 14 , 2019 A new report from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way DC Police deal with blacks and whites .
The civil rights group found police are arresting African Americans at 10 times the rate of white people , and even more so for minor offenses .
The ACLU asked for arrest data under the Freedom of Information Act and got an eyeful .
The ACLU ’ s analysis shows that between 2013 and 2017 , African Americans were 47 percent of DC ’ s population , but 86 percent of the people police arrested .
“ When you have a disparity of 86 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a city that ’ s 47 percent black , that ’ s not just one or two officers .
That ’ s a systemic problem than needs a systemic solution , ” said Michael Perloff , an attorney with the ACLU of D.C. “ Even in overwhelmingly white neighborhoods , it was the African Americans who tended to be arrested .
“ The black population of Kalorama is five percent , ” said Perloff .
“ The black share of arrestees in Kalorama is 44 percent.
” The report also found thousands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , relatively minor crimes .
Of the people arrested for driving without a permit , 78 percent of them were African American .
RELATED : DC is the most gentrified city ; Navy Yard is its most gentrified neighborhood “ We don ’ t think people should be subjected to the terror and humiliation of arrest for something that ’ s relatively minor .
But you should definitely reconsider those arrests when it ’ s promoting racial bias , when it ’ s sowing distrust in the community , ” Perloff said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents deserve both safe neighborhoods — and a police department they can trust .
Deputy Mayor Kevin Donahue pointed to initiatives like body-worn cameras and training on the city ’ s history and culture as ways DC is working to rebuild trust between the police and the community .

Let’s play shot and chaser, shall we?
This might be the most revealing game of shot and chaser ever, but we’ll leave it to you to decide.
Shot.
DC Police are arresting black people at 10 times the rate they arrest white people: Five years of arrest data obtained by the ACLU show that even in predominantly white neighborhoods, police are arresting a disproportionate number of blacks. Many of the arrests are for non-violent, relatively minor offenses, WUSA.com, May 14, 2019 A new report from the ACLU finds massive racial disparities in the way DC Police deal with blacks and whites. The civil rights group found police are arresting African Americans at 10 times the rate of white people, and even more so for minor offenses. The ACLU asked for arrest data under the Freedom of Information Act and got an eyeful. The ACLU’s analysis shows that between 2013 and 2017, African Americans were 47 percent of DC’s population, but 86 percent of the people police arrested. “When you have a disparity of 86 percent of the arrests being black, in a city that’s 47 percent black, that’s not just one or two officers. That’s a systemic problem than needs a systemic solution,” said Michael Perloff, an attorney with the ACLU of D.C. “Even in overwhelmingly white neighborhoods, it was the African Americans who tended to be arrested. “The black population of Kalorama is five percent,” said Perloff. “The black share of arrestees in Kalorama is 44 percent.” The report also found thousands of African Americans were arrested for non-violent, relatively minor crimes. Of the people arrested for driving without a permit, 78 percent of them were African American. RELATED: DC is the most gentrified city; Navy Yard is its most gentrified neighborhood “We don’t think people should be subjected to the terror and humiliation of arrest for something that’s relatively minor. But you should definitely reconsider those arrests when it’s promoting racial bias, when it’s sowing distrust in the community,” Perloff said. The Bowser Administration released a statement saying residents deserve both safe neighborhoods — and a police department they can trust. Deputy Mayor Kevin Donahue pointed to initiatives like body-worn cameras and training on the city’s history and culture as ways DC is working to rebuild trust between the police and the community.
Now here’s your chaser. Brace yourself. You might need a double.
‘It’s not OK to lie to the community’ | MPD whistleblower details alleged crime underreporting in the first interview: Sgt. Charlotte Djossou says she faced retaliation for reporting downgrading of crimes to supervisors, WUSA.com, March 4, 2020 A whistleblower from the D.C. Police Department is talking openly about the crime underreporting she says she’s witnessed inside the Metropolitan Police Department. “I was surprised,” said MPD Sergeant Charlotte Djossou. “I didn’t want to believe it.” Djossou, a 15-year MPD veteran previously honored for her service by Police Chief Peter Newsham, is going public with stunning allegations about what she says is going on in her own department. She spoke exclusively with WUSA9 investigative reporter Eric Flack. “You know you have to have courage to sometimes take a stand, for things to change,” Djossou said. “And hopefully this will be the start of a different D.C. Police Department.” RELATED: Internal documents, whistleblowers point to alleged underreporting of crime by DC Police She claims D.C. police supervisors are ordering investigators to downgrade crime classifications from more serious crimes to less serious ones to make the city’s crime stats look better. “The commanders and the captains get promoted, and they get awards, when the crime stats are low,” Djossou said. She says internal documents she handed over to DC Council, later obtained by WUSA9, suggest DC police commanders regularly instructed patrol officers to underreport crimes. Djossou, who calls herself a whistleblower, says that can come with serious consequences. “Some people are so comfortable walking in the district,” Djossou said. “They will walk down any block. You know headphones, jogging, because they feel like the crime isn’t as bad as it is.” Included in those internal MPD documents are two different police reports. One which said the victim had her throat slashed. A second, which reported a man had a knife held to his neck in a case of domestic violence. But instead of “assault with a dangerous weapon,” a felony charge that can get you ten years in prison, investigators classified both alleged crimes as a “simple assault.”
Think about this for a second: in 2019, the ACLU is mad too many blacks are arrested in Washington D.C.; in 2020, a black female sergeant with the Washington D.C. blows the whistle on how the Washington D.C. Police Department covers up black crime…
Do you get it, yet?
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-13--Mexico Considers Closing Border To Americans To Prevent Coronavirus—Are They Racist Or Something?

The Daily Mail reports that Mexico is thinking of closing its Frontera Norte—what Americans think of as the Mexican Border—at least to prevent entry by Americans , although I do n't know if they 'll try to stop Mexicans leaving .
My question is : are they racist or something ?
Everyone knows that only `` nativists '' try to prevent disease entering their country by closing borders .
In 2009 , we had cases of the swine flu coming north from Mexico , and it raised civil rights issues .
From my 2009 blog post Civil Rights Law Does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Do n't Even Think Of Noticing That A New Guest Is Arriving From Mexico ...
It can get tricky when 1 ) having swine flu may itself count as a protected disability under laws like California ’ s ; 2 ) innkeepers are required to report communicable disease to authorities ; 3 ) they must nonetheless avoid infringing customers ’ privacy ; and 4 ) they can face liability for not taking steps to protect fellow guests and their own workers .
And don ’ t even think of noticing that a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quote is from the hotel lawyers blog : Q : Given all the publicity about the Swine Flu deaths in Mexico , should an innkeeper refuse guests Mexico ?
A : The mere fact that there are many cases of Swine Flu in Mexico does n't mean that everyone traveling from Mexico has the disease .
Therefore , no blanket exclusion should be applied .
Among other things , it could be argued that such a policy constitutes discrimination based on national origin in violation of both federal and state law .
Another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Care If You Die Of course , Mexico has always had a more restrictive immigration policy than the US , they just say it 's racist when the US does it .

The Daily Mail reports that Mexico is thinking of closing its Frontera Norte—what Americans think of as the Mexican Border—at least to prevent entry by Americans, although I don't know if they'll try to stop Mexicans leaving.
Mexico is considering closing its border to stop Americans bringing coronavirus into its country https://t.co/crjGjlnPQq — Daily Mail US (@DailyMail) March 13, 2020
My question is: are they racist or something? Everyone knows that only "nativists" try to prevent disease entering their country by closing borders.
In 2009, we had cases of the swine flu coming north from Mexico, and it raised civil rights issues.
From my 2009 blog post Civil Rights Law Doesn't Care If You Die:"Don't Even Think Of Noticing That A New Guest Is Arriving From Mexico...
From Walter Olson at Overlawyered.com: It can get tricky when 1) having swine flu may itself count as a protected disability under laws like California’s; 2) innkeepers are required to report communicable disease to authorities; 3) they must nonetheless avoid infringing customers’ privacy; and 4) they can face liability for not taking steps to protect fellow guests and their own workers. And don’t even think of noticing that a new guest is arriving from Mexico… The relevant quote is from the hotel lawyers blog: Q:Given all the publicity about the Swine Flu deaths in Mexico, should an innkeeper refuse guests Mexico? A:The mere fact that there are many cases of Swine Flu in Mexico doesn't mean that everyone traveling from Mexico has the disease. Therefore, no blanket exclusion should be applied. Among other things, it could be argued that such a policy constitutes discrimination based on national origin in violation of both federal and state law. Another case of Civil Rights Law Doesn't Care If You Die
Of course, Mexico has always had a more restrictive immigration policy than the US, they just say it's racist when the US does it.


vdare--2020-03-13--Trump Shivs Sessions (Who May Survive) Will He Do The Same With Other Immigration Patriot Senate Can

Trump Shivs Sessions (Who May Survive) Will He Do The Same With Other Immigration Patriot Senate Candidates?

If Donald J. Trump is trying to cripple his chances to stay in the White House , he could do no better than snub immigration patriots who put him office .
This week , he did just that .
He endorsed Tommy Tuberville , not his former attorney general Jeff Sessions , in the March 31 GOP Senate primary runoff in Alabama .
That sends exactly the wrong message to Trump ’ s MAGA supporters : He favors phony loyalists over genuine America Firsters .
Probably behind the move : Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP Establishment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cripple three other Trump loyalists : in Kansas , Kris Kobach ; in Georgia , Doug Collins ; in Arizona , Daniel McCarthy .
If Trump endorses these candidates too , he would seriously impair the rebranding of the GOP as a National Conservative party .
Trump ’ s endorsing Tuberville is unfortunately all too explicable .
The president still holds a petty grudge because Sessions recused himself from the Russia “ collusion ” probe .
Trump apparently doesn ’ t care that Sessions endorsed him when no one else would , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective cabinet members and fully backs the agenda Trump won on in 2016 .
Tuberville ’ s campaign is built around portraying Sessions as a traitor to Trump [ ‘ Traitor Jeff ’ —New Alabama Senate ad blasts Sessions over Trump , by Sean Ross , Yellowhammer , November 3 , 2019 ] .
Yet the former college football coach is no Trump loyalist .
He has harshly criticized Trump over his veterans ’ policy and blamed the president for the country ’ s problems with illegal aliens .
“ He stands for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I don ’ t believe in , ” Tuberville recently said [ Tommy Tuberville in Unearthed Remarks : ‘ We ’ re Paying for Illegals to Come Over Here … That ’ s Donald Trump ’ s Fault ’ , by John Binder , Breitbart , February 17 , 2020 ] .
Besides knocking Trump on illegal immigration , Tuberville hired Rob Jesmer , the chief Republican aide to Mark Zuckerberg ’ s immigration booster group FWD.us , as a campaign consultant .
Tuberville thinks we need immigrant workers , and even worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a.k.a .
the vote .
But that , of course , hasn ’ t stopped him from making anti-immigration noises to sound like Trump .
“ Folks , [ immigrants are ] taking over , and if we don ’ t open our eyes , it is going to be over with , ” he said last year [ Tuberville warns of immigration threat in speech to North Alabama Republicans , by Jeff Poor , Yellowhammer , June 8 , 2019 ] .
Beyond all that , by the way , Tuberville sided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ battle flag from Vaught–Hemingway Stadium at Ole Miss when he was head football coach .
[ Ole Miss Coach to Fans : Lose the Rebel Flag , by Tribune News Service , Chicago Tribune , September 26 , 1997 ] .
In other words , Tuberville is no Sessions , who needs no introduction to VDARE readers .
No lawmaker is tougher on border control and illegal immigration than Sessions .
He led the fight against Amnesty for illegals as a senator , and always pushed to lower legal immigration .
Immigration enforcement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Department .
Great thing is , despite Trump ’ s move to Tuberville , Sessions still might win .
Significantly , he has just been endorsed by the National Rifle Association .
[ NRA endorses Jeff Sessions in Senate runoff , by Henry Thornton , Yellowhammer News , March 13 , 2020 ] His campaign released a poll this week that showed him tied with Tuberville in the primary run-off [ Sessions , Tuberville tied in Alabama runoff , by Rebecca Klar , The Hill , March 10 , 2020 ] .
Remember @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but Roy Moore survived the blow and crushed Strange for good measure .
Alabamians might well ignore Trump again .
In Kansas , Trump faces a similar choice .
Former Secretary of State Kris Kobach is running against U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall in the state ’ s Senate primary .
Trump endorsed Kobach in his losing 2018 gubernatorial race and has considered him for senior roles in the administration .
Like Sessions , Kobach supported Trump in the 2016 primary .
He ’ s a committed immigration patriot who has dedicated most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Unlike Sessions , he did not commit any grievous sin against Trump .
But that apparently means nothing to GOP elites , who hate Kobach because he ’ s too outspoken on immigration .
The National Republican Senate Committee even condemned his campaign : But here ’ s what party hacks forget : Kobach has won two statewide races in Kansas and only lost in 2018 thanks to that year ’ s blue wave and the unpopularity of the previous Republican governor [ Sam Brownback of Kansas has been dethroned as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Hunter Woodall , The Kansas City Star , April 11 , 2017 ] .
Even worse , in 2017 , his opponent Marshall has opposed Trump ’ s agenda of building a border wall , reducing immigration , and aggressively deporting illegals .
He claimed we needed cheap foreign labor [ Congressman breaks with Trump on border wall , young immigrants , by Dion Lefler , The Wichita Eagle , June 2 , 2017 ] .
As well , the polls show Kobach as the clear frontrunner with a double-digit lead over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February survey released by Kobach ’ s campaign gives him a 9-point lead over his likely Democratic competitor , Barbara Bollier [ Kobach vs. Bollier : Competing polls test potential Senate race matchup in Kansas , by Bryan Lowry , The Kansas City Star , February 14 , 2020 ] No matter , McConnell and his gang are pressing Trump to endorse Marshall .
Trump almost did so in January , but backed out of it after a phone call with Kobach [ Trump tried to call Kris Kobach during his meeting with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bryan Lowry , Michael Wilner and Jonathan Shorman , The Kansas City Star , January 17 , 2020 ] .
Unfortunately , that doesn ’ t mean Trump won ’ t listen to the GOP Establishment that hates him and endorse Marshall , who is arguably worse than Tuberville .
Bottom line in Kansas ?
Endorsing Marshall could change the race , but if Trump would just stay out of it , or better , endorse Kobach , he ’ ll likely win and have a good shot at defeating the Democrat on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means McConnell and his Donor Class friends would have to deal with an immigration patriot in the Senate .
On November 3 , Georgians will vote on both U.S. Senate seats .
One is occupied by David Perdue , who rates a career B+ from Numbers USA and faces no primary opposition .
The other is occupied by Kelly Loeffler thanks to the resignation of Johnny Isakson last year .
She goes before voters in a special election , not preceded by a primary , to fill the remaining two years of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Matt Lieberman , the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut .
But it ’ s still another test for Trump : Rep. Doug Collins is running , too .
Trump wanted Gov .
Brian Kemp to appoint Collins when Isakson quit .
But Kemp instead picked Loeffler , a businesswoman with no political record .
Trump didn ’ t like the choice , but many of his associates , and of course , Stupid Party HQ , decided Loeffler was the better candidate .
And she still is , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the United Nations , Nikki Haley , the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other establishment figures are backing her and smearing Collins ’ run as a gift to the Democrats .
“ All he has done is put two senate seats , multiple house seats , and Georgia ’ s 16 electoral votes in play , ” NRSC executive director Kevin McLaughlin said in January [ Senate GOP campaign arm rips Collins as selfish for entering Georgia race , by Rebecca Klar , The Hill , January 29 , 2020 ] .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say the least , puzzling … and counterproductive .
Trump likes him , he ’ s one of Trump ’ s closest allies in the House and he led the president ’ s defense against impeachment [ Top Trump ally in House announces Senate bid , by Alex Rogers , CNN , January 29 , 2020 ] .
And Collins is solid on immigration .
He has a A career rating from NumbersUSA and was one of the few Republicans to vote against the Indian Green Card giveaway known as the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he isn ’ t Jeff Sessions .
But he will oppose Amnesty and support sensible reforms .
Loeffler , on the other hand , is something of a cipher .
She ’ s a businesswoman who co-owns a basketball team in the very liberal WNBA .
A few reputable sources claim she can be trusted on immigration and other conservative issues .
“ [ Loeffler ] ’ s a proponent of the second amendment .
She was very tough on illegal immigration .
So she would check some of those boxes with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an adviser to ProEnglish , told local media last year [ Who Is Kelly Loeffler , Rumored A Likely Senate Pick ?
, by Emma Hurt , WABE , November 27 , 2019 ] .
She ’ s presented herself as a Trump backer and attacked Mitt Romney for supporting impeachment [ Trump thanks Loeffler for ‘ downright nasty and mean ’ support during impeachment , by Jonathan Raymond , 11ALIVE , February 6 , 2020 ] .
All true , perhaps , but she did vote for an appropriations bill that would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ F- rating from Numbers USA is unfair because it measures that one vote , but there you have it .
At least Collins has a record that America First voters can measure .
Like the other Establishment hacks , Loeffler knows she must present herself as a Trump loyalist to win .
Question is , has Trump changed his mind on Collins even though he wanted him to replace Isakson .
My guess : Trump stays out of it .
I hope !
But Trump didn ’ t stay out of the GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endorsed the GOP establishment choice , incumbent Martha McSally .
She lost to Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 , but Gov .
Doug Doucey appointed her to fill the seat of Sen. John McCain after he died and his successor Jon Kyl , a temporary caretaker , resigned .
Now , she has to win that seat to finish McCain ’ s term .
Faced with a challenge from Trump backer Daniel McCarthy in the August 4 primary , she quickly appealed for help to the McConnell Mafia , Trump himself and then Vice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s oppo research machine whirred to life and party chairman Ronna McDaniel told him to drop out of the race Martha McSally moves to head off GOP primary challenge , by Alex Isenstadt , Politico , June 25 , 2019 ] .
McCarthy , as Isenstadt reported , “ helped bankroll Trump ’ s 2016 campaign , ” but that didn ’ t matter .
Trump struck again , leaving another backer out in the cold when he “ abruptly tweeted out an endorsement for McSally.
” Perhaps McCarthy isn ’ t ideal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wall , he floated the idea of annexing Mexico , then retracted it as a “ joke ” [ GOP Senate candidate walks back comments on annexing Mexico , by Daniel Welch , AZFamily.com , Sept. 20 , 2019 ] .
But McSally ’ s no bargain , either .
She supports a wall , too , yet rates just a C+ from Numbers USA and favors importing foreign labor to compete with American workers .
Besides that , polls show her losing to Gulf War combat veteran and astronaut Mark Kelly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ Kelly leads McSally by 7 points in Arizona Senate poll , by Reid Wilson , The Hill , March 11 , 2020 ] .
Long-term , bad endorsements not only harm Trump ’ s agenda , for obvious reasons but also undermine his re-election effort .
Trump can ’ t put America First without true America Firsters and immigration patriots in the Senate .
And he certainly can ’ t put America First if he ’ s not in the White House .
In 2016 , Trump defied the GOP elites and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kobach , and Collins .
That national populism is still the key not only to victory on November 3 but also the GOP ’ s future success and restoring the Historic American Nation .

washingtonwatcherii@protonmail.com (Washington  Watcher II)

If Donald J. Trump is trying to cripple his chances to stay in the White House, he could do no better than snub immigration patriots who put him office. This week, he did just that. He endorsed Tommy Tuberville, not his former attorney general Jeff Sessions, in the March 31 GOP Senate primary runoff in Alabama. That sends exactly the wrong message to Trump’s MAGA supporters: He favors phony loyalists over genuine America Firsters. Probably behind the move: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP Establishment. And they’re also trying to cripple three other Trump loyalists: in Kansas, Kris Kobach; in Georgia, Doug Collins; in Arizona, Daniel McCarthy. If Trump endorses these candidates too, he would seriously impair the rebranding of the GOP as a National Conservative party.
Alabama—Sessions vs. Tuberville, March 17
Trump’s endorsing Tuberville is unfortunately all too explicable. The president still holds a petty grudge because Sessions recused himself from the Russia “collusion” probe. Trump apparently doesn’t care that Sessions endorsed him when no one else would, or that Sessions was one of his most effective cabinet members and fully backs the agenda Trump won on in 2016.
Tuberville’s campaign is built around portraying Sessions as a traitor to Trump [‘Traitor Jeff’—New Alabama Senate ad blasts Sessions over Trump, by Sean Ross, Yellowhammer, November 3, 2019]. Yet the former college football coach is no Trump loyalist. He has harshly criticized Trump over his veterans’ policy and blamed the president for the country’s problems with illegal aliens. “He stands for a lot of things, some things I don’t believe in,” Tuberville recently said [Tommy Tuberville in Unearthed Remarks: ‘We’re Paying for Illegals to Come Over Here … That’s Donald Trump’s Fault’, by John Binder, Breitbart, February 17, 2020].
Besides knocking Trump on illegal immigration, Tuberville hired Rob Jesmer, the chief Republican aide to Mark Zuckerberg’s immigration booster group FWD.us, as a campaign consultant.
Tuberville thinks we need immigrant workers, and even worse, he thinks they should get citizenship a.k.a. the vote.
But that, of course, hasn’t stopped him from making anti-immigration noises to sound like Trump. “Folks, [immigrants are] taking over, and if we don’t open our eyes, it is going to be over with,” he said last year [Tuberville warns of immigration threat in speech to North Alabama Republicans, by Jeff Poor, Yellowhammer, June 8, 2019].
Beyond all that, by the way, Tuberville sided with Cultural Marxists on banning the Confederate battle flag from Vaught–Hemingway Stadium at Ole Miss when he was head football coach.[Ole Miss Coach to Fans: Lose the Rebel Flag, by Tribune News Service, Chicago Tribune, September 26, 1997].
In other words, Tuberville is no Sessions, who needs no introduction to VDARE readers. No lawmaker is tougher on border control and illegal immigration than Sessions. He led the fight against Amnesty for illegals as a senator, and always pushed to lower legal immigration. Immigration enforcement was a top priority in his Justice Department.
Sessions can be trusted; Tuberville can’t.
Great thing is, despite Trump’s move to Tuberville, Sessions still might win. Significantly, he has just been endorsed by the National Rifle Association.[NRA endorses Jeff Sessions in Senate runoff, by Henry Thornton, Yellowhammer News, March 13, 2020] His campaign released a poll this week that showed him tied with Tuberville in the primary run-off [Sessions, Tuberville tied in Alabama runoff, by Rebecca Klar, The Hill, March 10, 2020]. Remember, Trump Luther Strange in 2017, but Roy Moore survived the blow and crushed Strange for good measure.
Alabamians might well ignore Trump again.
Kansas—Kobach vs. Marshall, August 4
In Kansas, Trump faces a similar choice. Former Secretary of State Kris Kobach is running against U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall in the state’s Senate primary. Trump endorsed Kobach in his losing 2018 gubernatorial race and has considered him for senior roles in the administration. Like Sessions, Kobach supported Trump in the 2016 primary. He’s a committed immigration patriot who has dedicated most of his political career to combatting mass immigration. Unlike Sessions, he did not commit any grievous sin against Trump.
But that apparently means nothing to GOP elites, who hate Kobach because he’s too outspoken on immigration. The National Republican Senate Committee even condemned his campaign:
“Just last year Kris Kobach ran and lost to a Democrat. Now, he wants to do the same and simultaneously put President Trump’s presidency and Senate Majority at risk. We know Kansans won’t let that happen and we look forward to watching the Republican candidate they do choose win next fall,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) said in July after Kobach’s Senate campaign launch. [Kobach says he discussed his Senate bid with Trump, by Tal Axelrod, The Hill, February 15, 2020]
But here’s what party hacks forget: Kobach has won two statewide races in Kansas and only lost in 2018 thanks to that year’s blue wave and the unpopularity of the previous Republican governor [Sam Brownback of Kansas has been dethroned as the nation’s least popular governor, by Hunter Woodall, The Kansas City Star, April 11, 2017].
Even worse, in 2017, his opponent Marshall has opposed Trump’s agenda of building a border wall, reducing immigration, and aggressively deporting illegals. He claimed we needed cheap foreign labor [Congressman breaks with Trump on border wall, young immigrants, by Dion Lefler, The Wichita Eagle, June 2, 2017].
As well, the polls show Kobach as the clear frontrunner with a double-digit lead over Marshall in two surveys. And a February survey released by Kobach’s campaign gives him a 9-point lead over his likely Democratic competitor, Barbara Bollier [Kobach vs. Bollier: Competing polls test potential Senate race matchup in Kansas, by Bryan Lowry, The Kansas City Star, February 14, 2020]
No matter, McConnell and his gang are pressing Trump to endorse Marshall. Trump almost did so in January, but backed out of it after a phone call with Kobach [Trump tried to call Kris Kobach during his meeting with Roger Marshall, sources say, by Bryan Lowry, Michael Wilner and Jonathan Shorman, The Kansas City Star, January 17, 2020].
Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean Trump won’t listen to the GOP Establishment that hates him and endorse Marshall, who is arguably worse than Tuberville.
Bottom line in Kansas? Endorsing Marshall could change the race, but if Trump would just stay out of it, or better, endorse Kobach, he’ll likely win and have a good shot at defeating the Democrat on November 3.
Of course, that means McConnell and his Donor Class friends would have to deal with an immigration patriot in the Senate.
Georgia—Special Election, November 3
On November 3, Georgians will vote on both U.S. Senate seats. One is occupied by David Perdue, who rates a career B+ from Numbers USA and faces no primary opposition. The other is occupied by Kelly Loeffler thanks to the resignation of Johnny Isakson last year. She goes before voters in a special election, not preceded by a primary, to fill the remaining two years of his term. Four Democrats are running, including Matt Lieberman, the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.
But it’s still another test for Trump: Rep. Doug Collins is running, too.
Trump wanted Gov. Brian Kemp to appoint Collins when Isakson quit. But Kemp instead picked Loeffler, a businesswoman with no political record. Trump didn’t like the choice, but many of his associates, and of course, Stupid Party HQ, decided Loeffler was the better candidate. And she still is, they think.
Trump’s former envoy to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other establishment figures are backing her and smearing Collins’ run as a gift to the Democrats. “All he has done is put two senate seats, multiple house seats, and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes in play,” NRSC executive director Kevin McLaughlin said in January [Senate GOP campaign arm rips Collins as selfish for entering Georgia race, by Rebecca Klar, The Hill, January 29, 2020].
The scorched-earth campaign against Collins is, to say the least, puzzling … and counterproductive. Trump likes him, he’s one of Trump’s closest allies in the House and he led the president’s defense against impeachment [Top Trump ally in House announces Senate bid, by Alex Rogers, CNN, January 29, 2020].
And Collins is solid on immigration. He has a A career rating from NumbersUSA and was one of the few Republicans to vote against the Indian Green Card giveaway known as the “Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act.” Granted, he isn’t Jeff Sessions. But he will oppose Amnesty and support sensible reforms.
Loeffler, on the other hand, is something of a cipher. She’s a businesswoman who co-owns a basketball team in the very liberal WNBA. A few reputable sources claim she can be trusted on immigration and other conservative issues. “[Loeffler]’s a proponent of the second amendment. She was very tough on illegal immigration. So she would check some of those boxes with the president,” Phil Kent, an adviser to ProEnglish, told local media last year [Who Is Kelly Loeffler, Rumored A Likely Senate Pick?, by Emma Hurt, WABE, November 27, 2019]. She’s presented herself as a Trump backer and attacked Mitt Romney for supporting impeachment [Trump thanks Loeffler for ‘downright nasty and mean’ support during impeachment, by Jonathan Raymond, 11ALIVE, February 6, 2020].
All true, perhaps, but she did vote for an appropriations bill that would have boosted H-2B visas. Perhaps her F- rating from Numbers USA is unfair because it measures that one vote, but there you have it.
At least Collins has a record that America First voters can measure.
Like the other Establishment hacks, Loeffler knows she must present herself as a Trump loyalist to win.
Question is, has Trump changed his mind on Collins even though he wanted him to replace Isakson.
My guess: Trump stays out of it. I hope!
Arizona—GOP Primary, August 4
But Trump didn’t stay out of the GOP Primary in Arizona, and once again endorsed the GOP establishment choice, incumbent Martha McSally. She lost to Kyrsten Sinema in 2018, but Gov. Doug Doucey appointed her to fill the seat of Sen. John McCain after he died and his successor Jon Kyl, a temporary caretaker, resigned. Now, she has to win that seat to finish McCain’s term.
Faced with a challenge from Trump backer Daniel McCarthy in the August 4 primary, she quickly appealed for help to the McConnell Mafia, Trump himself and then Vice President Mike Pence. The GOP’s oppo research machine whirred to life and party chairman Ronna McDaniel told him to drop out of the race [Martha McSally moves to head off GOP primary challenge, by Alex Isenstadt, Politico, June 25, 2019].
McCarthy, as Isenstadt reported, “helped bankroll Trump’s 2016 campaign,” but that didn’t matter. Trump struck again, leaving another backer out in the cold when he “abruptly tweeted out an endorsement for McSally.”
Perhaps McCarthy isn’t ideal. Though he strongly backs a border wall, he floated the idea of annexing Mexico, then retracted it as a “joke” [GOP Senate candidate walks back comments on annexing Mexico, by Daniel Welch, AZFamily.com, Sept. 20, 2019].
But McSally’s no bargain, either. She supports a wall, too, yet rates just a C+ from Numbers USA and favors importing foreign labor to compete with American workers. Besides that, polls show her losing to Gulf War combat veteran and astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabrille Giffords [Kelly leads McSally by 7 points in Arizona Senate poll, by Reid Wilson, The Hill, March 11, 2020].
Long-term, bad endorsements not only harm Trump’s agenda, for obvious reasons but also undermine his re-election effort. Trump can’t put America First without true America Firsters and immigration patriots in the Senate. And he certainly can’t put America First if he’s not in the White House.
In 2016, Trump defied the GOP elites and championed the same things as Sessions, Kobach, and Collins. That national populism is still the key not only to victory on November 3 but also the GOP’s future success and restoring the Historic American Nation.


vdare--2020-03-13--Counting Coronavirus Cases the Way We Count Crime: Focus on Dead Bodies

With all the uncertainty about how many cases there are and limited testing , I think the best approach is the same one you use with crime statistics : robberies can fluctuate depending on how many are reported , but you can ’ t ignore a body .
In other words , look at the deaths .
Bodies can ’ t be ignored and are probably much much more likely to be tested .
Then you can extrapolate , roughly , using estimates of the fatality rate .
For example , Washington state ( where I live ) , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rough estimate of a 1 % fatality rate , that gives you an estimate of 3000 cases in WA ( much higher than the ~450 confirmed cases ) .
Or look at Italy – they have over 1000 deaths .
Their fatality rate is probably higher due to the health system breaking down , so say rough estimate of 2 % .
That gives 50,000 cases – again , much higher than the ~15,000 confirmed cases .
I think people are systematically underestimating the extent and I ’ m worried .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with doubling time of 5 days ) they will have 800K cases in 20 days .
Their quarantine measures should slow the doubling time , though .

A reader writes:
With all the uncertainty about how many cases there are and limited testing, I think the best approach is the same one you use with crime statistics:
robberies can fluctuate depending on how many are reported, but you can’t ignore a body.
In other words, look at the deaths. Bodies can’t be ignored and are probably much much more likely to be tested.
Then you can extrapolate, roughly, using estimates of the fatality rate.
For example, Washington state (where I live), has 31 COVID-19 deaths to date. Taking a rough estimate of a 1% fatality rate, that gives you an estimate of 3000 cases in WA (much higher than the ~450 confirmed cases). Or look at Italy – they have over 1000 deaths. Their fatality rate is probably higher due to the health system breaking down, so say rough estimate of 2%. That gives 50,000 cases – again, much higher than the ~15,000 confirmed cases.
I think people are systematically underestimating the extent and I’m worried.
If Italy has 50,000 cases, then (with doubling time of 5 days) they will have 800K cases in 20 days. Their quarantine measures should slow the doubling time, though.


vdare--2020-03-13--Can We Call Off #MeToo for the Duration?

If we are lucky , in the coming months we will read numerous stories about brilliant researchers and doctors heading @ @ @ @ @ treatments and prevention methods .
Because this is the life sciences , a sizable fraction @ @ @ @ @ women .
But we must be prepared for the fact that a large number of @ @ @ @ @ will be … men .
Under 2019 Rules , any man running a large organization @ @ @ @ @ women and who happened to Surface in the Media was fair game for any woman @ @ @ @ @ him deciding that what The Conversation needed now to be about was about that time @ @ @ @ @ my shoulder at work and it made me feel funny and I thought about it @ @ @ @ @ now decided it was sexual assault .
So Society must validate my feeling by firing @ @ @ @ @ .
Here ’ s my request : Under 2020 Rules , we postpone all such @ @ @ @ @ the effort for the duration .

If we are lucky, in the coming months we will read numerous stories about brilliant researchers and doctors heading laboratories that have innovated new treatments and prevention methods.
Because this is the life sciences, a sizable fraction of these innovators will be women. But we must be prepared for the fact that a large number of these upcoming benefactors of humanity will be … men.
Under 2019 Rules, any man running a large organization that employed a lot of women and who happened to Surface in the Media was fair game for any woman who used to work for him deciding that what The Conversation needed now to be about was about that time he put his hand on my shoulder at work and it made me feel funny and I thought about it for weeks and I have now decided it was sexual assault. So Society must validate my feeling by firing this man from his job.
Here’s my request: Under 2020 Rules, we postpone all such Conversations involving anybody involved in the effort for the duration.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-13--Coronavirus, The Wall, And Tiny Little Ladders: Viruses Come WIth People!

So the Babylon Bee tweets that Trump is building a Coronvirus-proof wall , and some guy tweets about a YouTube @ @ @ @ @ tiny little ladders : Here 's something I wrote ( under the heading of Mexican @ @ @ @ @ ) during the 2009 flu pandemic in Mexico , which of course crossed into the @ @ @ @ @ to stop it : On Marginal Revolution Tyler Cowen , the economist , says that @ @ @ @ @ would not stop a virus ... '' In fact , diseases require vectors—the viruses are @ @ @ @ @ Desert , wearing little tiny backpacks , carrying little tiny waterbottles , and singing Mexicanos @ @ @ @ @ in little tiny voices that you ca n't hear because they 're only 200 nanometers @ @ @ @ @ in with people , and an unguarded border that lets millions enter without inspection every @ @ @ @ @ Viruses need hosts , and stopping people coming stops the virus coming .

So the Babylon Bee tweets that Trump is building a Coronavirus-proof wall, and some guy tweets about a YouTube video of viruses climbing "tiny little ladders:
BREAKING: YouTube Video Shows Coronavirus Using Tiny Ladder To Scale Trump's Wall https://t.co/6b1GtvtnqN — Elvis Trump (@Elvis_Trump) March 5, 2020
Here's something I wrote (under the heading of Mexican Flu And Little Tiny Backpacks) during the 2009 flu pandemic in Mexico, which of course crossed into the US because no one tried to stop it:
Viruses need hosts, and stopping people coming stops the virus coming.


vdare--2020-03-14--What Are the Chances Both Trump and Trudeau Have COVID-19?

From the National Post of Toronto : ‘ I do not show any symptoms ’ : Trudeau says there ’ s no need for him to be tested for COVID-19 Although his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau tested positive , Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he has not been examined for COVID-19 based on the advice of health care experts … “ It was explained to me that as long as I do not show any symptoms at all , there is no value to me being tested , ” Trudeau said Friday , in a press conference where he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For now , the World Health Organization has said that people showing no symptoms of COVID-19 are at “ very low risk ” of transmitting the virus .
However , some very preliminary studies — including a recent paper that tested 135 confirmed cases in China and 93 in Singapore — suggest that infected people can potentially transfer the virus during incubation , a several-day period before major symptoms begin to emerge .
“ There ’ s a high probability , or a substantial risk , that in fact pre-symptomatic patients , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contagious , ” said Pierre-Gerlier Forest , director of the University of Calgary ’ s School of Public Policy .
“ You incubate it for a while.
” Forest also stressed that the studies are in their early stage , and that there is a substantial lack of information on the topic thus far .
“ It ’ s complicated because there ’ s so much noise , ” he said .
My impression is that Tom Hanks Disease has been spread most by the popular , affluent , gregarious , mobile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Democrats originally objected to travel bans on the grounds that the Statue of Liberty would cry if we didn ’ t let in all the disease-riddled huddled masses .
But , a lot of the spreading seems to have been done less by the wretched refuse and instead by the type of people who go on ski vacations in the Dolomites .
For example , 86 of the 109 cases in little Iceland are connected to Icelanders who took ski trips to the Italian Alps .
An outbreak near me is from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CA ( yes , this L.A. suburban neighborhood is named after Tarzan ) who took a father-son ski trip to Cortina in Italy .
So this disease seems to be spreading from the top down .
Furthermore , it seems to be being spread by the vigorous and not too old , as skiers tend to be .

From the National Post of Toronto:
‘I do not show any symptoms’: Trudeau says there’s no need for him to be tested for COVID-19 Although his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau tested positive, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he has not been examined for COVID-19 based on the advice of health care experts Jesse Snyder
March 13, 2020 … “It was explained to me that as long as I do not show any symptoms at all, there is no value to me being tested,” Trudeau said Friday, in a press conference where he was several metres away from reporters. … For now, the World Health Organization has said that people showing no symptoms of COVID-19 are at “very low risk” of transmitting the virus. However, some very preliminary studies — including a recent paper that tested 135 confirmed cases in China and 93 in Singapore — suggest that infected people can potentially transfer the virus during incubation, a several-day period before major symptoms begin to emerge. “There’s a high probability, or a substantial risk, that in fact pre-symptomatic patients, or patients with mild symptoms… could actually be contagious,” said Pierre-Gerlier Forest, director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. “You incubate it for a while.” Forest also stressed that the studies are in their early stage, and that there is a substantial lack of information on the topic thus far. “It’s complicated because there’s so much noise,” he said.
My impression is that Tom Hanks Disease has been spread most by the popular, affluent, gregarious, mobile, and influential: the frequent fliers.
The Democrats originally objected to travel bans on the grounds that the Statue of Liberty would cry if we didn’t let in all the disease-riddled huddled masses.
But, a lot of the spreading seems to have been done less by the wretched refuse and instead by the type of people who go on ski vacations in the Dolomites. For example, 86 of the 109 cases in little Iceland are connected to Icelanders who took ski trips to the Italian Alps. An outbreak near me is from a number of residents of Tarzana, CA (yes, this L.A. suburban neighborhood is named after Tarzan) who took a father-son ski trip to Cortina in Italy.
So this disease seems to be spreading from the top down.
Furthermore, it seems to be being spread by the vigorous and not too old, as skiers tend to be.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-14--Tucker Carlson Does It Again: Drives To Mar-A-Lago To Talk Trump Into Taking Coronavirus Seriously

From the New York Times news section : Off the air , Mr. [ Tucker ] Carlson has been urging @ @ @ @ @ threat of coronavirus more seriously .
Last Saturday , Mr. Carlson drove from his residence @ @ @ @ @ the president ’ s Florida resort , and spoke directly with Mr. Trump about the @ @ @ @ @ person with knowledge of their conversation .

Earlier: Tucker Carlson Saves Trump from War with Iran
From the New York Times news section:
Off the air, Mr. [Tucker] Carlson has been urging Mr. Trump to take the threat of coronavirus more seriously. Last Saturday, Mr. Carlson drove from his residence in Florida to Mar-a-Lago, the president’s Florida resort, and spoke directly with Mr. Trump about the virus, according to a person with knowledge of their conversation.


vdare--2020-03-14--Why Does India Churn Out Fewer Epidemics Than China?

But , so far , India has been one bright spot : nothing much has happened to India as far as we can tell .
Why does China churn out epidemics , but not so much India ?
This fellow theorizes that the Chinese love of meat , with the more types of animals the better , is a big source of infectious germs .
In contrast , Hindu vegetarianism lessens transmissions from other animals .
0/Thread : India & China have always had similar levels of population , but then why does much of the world 's epidemics trace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CC @ vikasF22 @ BurntOutCase @ adamscrabble @ ahambrham @ Tambi_Dude @ ShaunakSA @ FrankBullit67 @ omarali50 @ teasri @ Bhaktirassagar — 🚀 @ 🇮🇳 ( @ hairymathguy ) March 14 , 2020 2/ Higher population increases breeding of domesticated animals ( e.g .
Chicken , Pig , Cow ) & their consumption of it & their byproducts to sustain the civilization .
This also increases chances of cross-species jump of diseases .
Animals & epidemics : pic.twitter.com/p3XHXRBaos — 🚀 @ 🇮🇳 ( @ hairymathguy ) March 14 , 2020 Another possibility is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than China .
China is a fairly homogeneous culture , while Indians , riven by caste , tend to find each other untouchable .

Back on February 24, I gloomily joked:
I hope none of the millions of Indians who assembled to see Trump’s motorcade has coronavirus.
But, so far, India has been one bright spot: nothing much has happened to India as far as we can tell.
Why does China churn out epidemics, but not so much India? This fellow theorizes that the Chinese love of meat, with the more types of animals the better, is a big source of infectious germs. In contrast, Hindu vegetarianism lessens transmissions from other animals.
Can't load tweet https://twitter.com/hairymathguy/status/1238701697536425984: Sorry, that page does not exist
Can't load tweet https://twitter.com/hairymathguy/status/1238701797000134656: Sorry, that page does not exist
Another possibility is that India is more into Social Distancing than China. China is a fairly homogeneous culture, while Indians, riven by caste, tend to find each other untouchable.
[Comment at Unz.com]


vdare--2020-03-14--Maskology 101: Cover Your Mouth To Protect Your Fellow Citizens

Steve , Way too much emphasis on testing when the quickest and easiest way to drive the RO number below one would be to require everyone out in public to wear low-tech masks by law ( such as the one described in the video below if necessary ) .
The idea is not to protect the user , let alone to identify the infected , but rather to protect the public by requiring everyone to cover their mouths .
The video is from the Japanese national network showing how to turn a piece of paper towel into a facemask effective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens .
The Japanese love folding paper and they are good at it , which is a Good Thing .
I could explain this better if I knew the proper medical jargon for two main reasons for wearing a mask : • To protect yourself from others ’ germs • To protect others from your germs Masks help do both , but a lot of the current commentary about how you need a Ph.D. in Maskology to properly use masks is based on doctors ’ natural worries about reason # 1 , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 would do wonders at driving down R below 1.0 .
Granted , at the moment , the U.S. needs to reserve the better sort of masks for health care workers like doctors and nurses .
But , let ’ s be honest with Americans : the reason you can ’ t get masks right now is not because they don ’ t work at preventing you from spreading the virus but because we outsourced their production to China .
That was really dumb .
But in the future we will have more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them to help your fellow citizens avoid the germ .

Long-time iSteve friend Luke Lea writes:
Steve, Way too much emphasis on testing when the quickest and easiest way to drive the RO number below one would be to require everyone out in public to wear low-tech masks by law (such as the one described in the video below if necessary). The idea is not to protect the user, let alone to identify the infected, but rather to protect the public by requiring everyone to cover their mouths.
The video is from the Japanese national network showing how to turn a piece of paper towel into a facemask effective at preventing you from infecting your fellow citizens. The Japanese love folding paper and they are good at it, which is a Good Thing.
I could explain this better if I knew the proper medical jargon for two main reasons for wearing a mask:
To protect yourself from others’ germs To protect others from your germs
(There’s also a third reason: that a mask helps you retain your natural humidity, which is probably helpful.)
Masks help do both, but a lot of the current commentary about how you need a Ph.D. in Maskology to properly use masks is based on doctors’ natural worries about reason #1, while a 95% success rate at #2 would do wonders at driving down R 0 below 1.0.
Granted, at the moment, the U.S. needs to reserve the better sort of masks for health care workers like doctors and nurses. But, let’s be honest with Americans: the reason you can’t get masks right now is not because they don’t work at preventing you from spreading the virus but because we outsourced their production to China. That was really dumb.
But in the future we will have more masks and then you must then wear them to help your fellow citizens avoid the germ.
[Comment at Unz.com]


Thanks from Derb

Thanks to listeners & readers who have emailed in expressing concern .
I do n't think this is COVID-19 , @ @ @ @ @ to find out .
The word around the Empire State is , if you want @ @ @ @ @ the damn thing , you have to be related to the Governor .
Which I @ @ @ @ @ for doubting that mine is the dreaded bug are : no fever .
I 've @ @ @ @ @ times a day : nada .
It should n't be some other kind of flu @ @ @ @ @ last fall , although people tell me some strains get through .
Probably just a @ @ @ @ @ it in mind to summon my former research assistants Mandy , Candy , and Brandy @ @ @ @ @ rub-downs I found so efficacious in Radio Derb 's Aegean days .
Then I recall @ @ @ @ @ 's sternest looks can be , and think better of it .
Coughing and sneezing @ @ @ @ @ being turned to stone would be a major inconvenience .

Thanks to listeners & readers who have emailed in expressing concern. I don't think this is COVID-19, but I have no way to find out. The word around the Empire State is, if you want to get properly tested for the damn thing, you have to be related to the Governor. Which I'm not.
My grounds for doubting that mine is the dreaded bug are: no fever. I've been taking my temperature 2-3 times a day: nada. It shouldn't be some other kind of flu: I had a shot last fall, although people tell me some strains get through. Probably just a cold.
I've had it in mind to summon my former research assistants Mandy, Candy, and Brandy, to administer the hot-towel rub-downs I found so efficacious in Radio Derb's Aegean days. Then I recall how very stern Mrs Derbyshire's sternest looks can be, and think better of it. Coughing and sneezing I can cope with; being turned to stone would be a major inconvenience.