iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--Hopefulness Despite 2.9 Billion Lost Birds

In 2019 bird researchers published Rosenberg et al “ Decline of the North American Avifauna ” , reporting a decline in 57 % of the bird species .
They estimated a net loss of nearly 2.9 billion birds since 1970 , and urged us to remedy the threats , claiming all were “ exacerbated by climate change ” , and we must stave off the “ potential collapse of the continental avifauna.
” Months before publication the researchers had organize and extensive media campaign .
Typical doomsday media like the New York Times piled on with “ Birds Are Vanishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrote , “ Silent Skies : Billions of North American Birds Have Vanished.
” As I have now been sheltering in place , I finally had ample time to thoroughly peruse Rosenberg ’ s study .
I had a very personal interest in it , having professionally studied bird populations for over 20 years and had worked to restore their habitat .
I also had conducted 20 years of surveys which were part of the study ’ s database .
Carefully looking at their data , a far more optimistic perspective is needed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of other ecologists , as reported in Slate , that “ There Is No Impending Bird Apocalypse ” .
As one ecologist wrote , it ’ s “ not what ’ s really happening .
I think it hurts the credibility of scientists.
” First consider since 1970 many species previously considered endangered such as pelicans , bald eagle , peregrine falcon , trumpeter swan , and whooping crane have been increasing due to enlightened management .
Despite being hunted , ducks and geese increased by 54 % .
Secondly , just 12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the loss of 1.4 billion birds , and counterintuitively their decline is not worrisome .
Three introduced species – house sparrows , starlings and pigeons – account for nearly one half billion lost birds .
These birds were pre-adapted to human habitat and are considered pests that carry disease and tarnish buildings and cars with their droppings .
Across America , companies like Bird-B-Gone are hired to remove these foreign bird pests .
Furthermore , starlings compete with native birds like bluebirds and flickers for nesting cavities , contributing to native bird declines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an omen of an “ avifauna collapse ” , but good news for native birds .
When European colonists cleared forests to create pastures and farmland or provide wood for heating , open-habitat species “ unnaturally ” increased .
Previously confined to the Great Plains , brown‑headed cowbirds quickly invaded the newly opened habitat .
Unfortunately , cowbirds parasitize other species by laying its eggs in their nests .
A cowbird hatchling then pushes out all other nestlings , killing the parasitized species ’ next generation .
The loss of 40 million cowbirds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Several bird species had evolved to colonize forest openings naturally produced by fire , or floods or high winds .
Those species “ unnaturally ” boomed when 50 % to 80 % of northeastern United States became de-forested by 1900 .
Still , eastern trees will reclaim a forest opening within 20 years , so open habitat species require a constant supply of forest openings .
However as marginal farms and pastures were abandoned , fires were suppressed and logging reduced , forests increasingly reclaimed those openings .
With a 50 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ species also declined ; now approaching pre-colonial numbers .
Accordingly , birds of the expanding forest interior like woodpeckers are now increasing .
White-throated Sparrows and Dark-eyed Juncos quickly colonize forest openings but then disappear within a few years as the forest recovers .
Those 2 species alone accounted for the loss of another quarter of a billion birds ; not because of an ecosystem collapse , but because forests were reclaiming human altered habitat .
Nonetheless those species are still 400 million strong , and juncos remain abundant in the open habitat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environmentalists want to reclaim the abundance of their boom years , they must manage forest openings with logging or prescribed burns .
Insect outbreaks also create forest openings .
For hundreds of years forests across Canada and northeastern US have been decimated every few decades by spruce bud worm eruptions .
So , forest managers now spray to limit further outbreaks .
Today there are an estimated 111 million living Tennessee Warblers that have specialized to feed on spruce bud worms .
But the warbler ’ s numbers have declined by 80 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Still they have never been threatened with extinction .
Conservationists must determine what is a reasonable warbler abundance while still protecting forests from devastating insect infestations .
The grassland biome accounted for the greatest declines , about 700 million birds .
Indeed , natural grasslands had been greatly reduced by centuries of expanding agriculture and grazing .
But in recent times more efficient agriculture has allowed more land to revert to “ natural ” states .
However fossil fuel fears reversed that trend .
In 2005 federal fuel policies began instituting subsidies to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 17 million more acres of grassland have been converted to corn fields for ethanol since 2006 .
Although still very abundant , just 3 species account for the loss of 400 million grassland birds : Horned Larks , Savannah Sparrows and Grasshopper Sparrows .
Horned Larks alone accounted for 182 million fewer birds due to a loss of very short grass habitats with some bare ground .
To increase their numbers , studies show more grazing , mowing or burning will increase their preferred habitat .
It must be emphasized that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since 1970 , does not signify ecosystem collapses .
But there are some legitimate concerns such as maintaining wetlands .
And there are some serious human-caused problems we need to remedy to increase struggling bird populations .
It is estimated that cats kill between 1 to 3 billion birds each year .
Up to 1 billion birds each year die by crashing into the illusions created by window reflections .
Collisions with cars and trucks likely kill 89 to 350 million birds a year .
Instead of fearmongering ecosystem collapse , our avifauna @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problems .
Population estimates for most land birds are based on data from the US Geological Surveys Breeding Bird Surveys ( BBS ) .
I conducted 2 BBS surveys on the Tahoe National Forest for 20 years .
Each survey route consists of 50 stops , each a half‑mile apart .
At each stop for a period of just 3 minutes , I would record all observed birds , the overwhelming majority of which are heard but not seen .
Many birds can be missed in such a short time , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowed the day ’ s survey to cover more habitat .
Each year on about the same date , the BBS survey was repeated .
Each BBS route surveys perhaps 1 % the region ’ s landscape .
To estimate each species ’ population for the whole region , the survey ’ s observations are extrapolated and modeled .
However , models rely on several assumptions and adjustments , and those assumptions that can inflate final estimates .
For example , in 2004 researchers estimated there were 6,500,000 Rufous Hummingbirds .
By 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But that larger population can not be deemed a conservation success .
That tripling of abundance was mostly due to new adjustments .
Because singing males account for most observations , the number of observed birds is doubled to account for an unobserved female that is most likely nearby .
Furthermore , it is assumed different species are more readily detected than others .
The models assume that each stop will account for all the birds within a 400‑meter radius .
Because a crow is readily detected over that distance , no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observed crows .
But hummingbirds are not so easily detected .
The earlier surveys assumed a hummingbird could only be detected if it was within an 80‑meter radius .
So , to standardize the observations to an area with a 400‑meter radius , observations were multiplied by 25 .
Recent survey models now assume hummingbirds can only be detected within 50 meters , so their observations are now adjusted by multiplying by 64 .
Thus , depending on their detection adjustments , one real observation could generate 50 or 128 virtual hummingbirds .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ account for the time‑of‑day effects and the likely number of birds in the region ’ s un-surveyed landscapes .
Setting aside assumptions about the regional homogeneity of birds ’ habitat , one very real problem with these adjustments that has yet to be addressed .
If one bird is no longer observed at a roadside stop , the model assumes that the other 127 virtual birds also died .
Survey routes are done along roadsides and up to 340 million birds are killed by vehicles each year .
Many sparrows and warblers are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ground .
Many seed eating birds like finches will congregate along a roadside to ingest the small gravel needed to internally grind their seeds .
Every year I watched a small flock of Evening Grosbeaks ingesting gravel from the shoulder of a country road , get picked off one by one by passing cars .
Roadside vegetation often differs from off-road vegetation .
Roads initially create openings that are suitable for one species but are gradually grown over during the lifetime of a survey to become unsuitable habitat .
So , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of roadside observations represents a decline for the whole region .
The larger the models ’ detectability adjustments are for a given species , the greater the probability that any declining trend in roadside observations will exaggerate a species population loss for the region .
The greatest population losses were modeled for warblers and sparrows and most warbler and sparrow data are adjusted for detectability by multiplying actual observations 4 to 10-fold .
It is worth reporting good news from recent studies in National Parks that used a much greater density of observation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Their observation points were also much closer together and thus required fewer assumptions and adjustments .
Of the 50 species they observed , all but 3 populations were stable .
Pushing a fake crisis , Rosenberg et al argued that declining numbers within a species that is still still very abundant doesn ’ t mean they are not threatened with a quick collapse .
He highlighted the Passenger Pigeon was once one of the most abundant birds in North America and they quickly went extinct by 1914 .
That doomsday scenario was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comparison to the Passenger Pigeon ’ s demise is a false equivalency .
Passenger Pigeons were hunted for food when people were suffering from much greater food insecurity .
Rosenberg et al summarized their study with one sentence : “ Cumulative loss of nearly three billion birds since 1970 , across most North American biomes , signals a pervasive and ongoing avifaunal crisis.
” But it signals no such thing .
Wise management will continue .
With better accounting of the natural causes of each species declines , plus more accurate modeling , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s “ crisis ” was just another misleading apocalyptic story that further erodes public trust in us honest environmental scientists .
Jim Steele is director emeritus of the Sierra Nevada Field Campus , SFSU and authored Landscapes and Cycles : An Environmentalist ’ s Journey to Climate Skepticism .

Guest Post by Jim Steele
What’s Natural
In 2019 bird researchers published Rosenberg et al “Decline of the North American Avifauna”, reporting a decline in 57% of the bird species. They estimated a net loss of nearly 2.9 billion birds since 1970, and urged us to remedy the threats, claiming all were “exacerbated by climate change”, and we must stave off the “potential collapse of the continental avifauna.” Months before publication the researchers had organize and extensive media campaign. Typical doomsday media like the New York Times piled on with “Birds Are Vanishing From North America” and Scientific American wrote, “Silent Skies: Billions of North American Birds Have Vanished.”
As I have now been sheltering in place, I finally had ample time to thoroughly peruse Rosenberg’s study. I had a very personal interest in it, having professionally studied bird populations for over 20 years and had worked to restore their habitat. I also had conducted 20 years of surveys which were part of the study’s database. Carefully looking at their data, a far more optimistic perspective is needed. So here I join a chorus of other ecologists, as reported in Slate, that “There Is No Impending Bird Apocalypse”. As one ecologist wrote, it’s “not what’s really happening. I think it hurts the credibility of scientists.”
First consider since 1970 many species previously considered endangered such as pelicans, bald eagle, peregrine falcon, trumpeter swan, and whooping crane have been increasing due to enlightened management. Despite being hunted, ducks and geese increased by 54%. Secondly, just 12 of the 303 declining species account for the loss of 1.4 billion birds, and counterintuitively their decline is not worrisome.
Three introduced species – house sparrows, starlings and pigeons – account for nearly one half billion lost birds. These birds were pre-adapted to human habitat and are considered pests that carry disease and tarnish buildings and cars with their droppings. Across America, companies like Bird-B-Gone are hired to remove these foreign bird pests. Furthermore, starlings compete with native birds like bluebirds and flickers for nesting cavities, contributing to native bird declines. The removal of starlings is not an omen of an “avifauna collapse”, but good news for native birds.
When European colonists cleared forests to create pastures and farmland or provide wood for heating, open-habitat species “unnaturally” increased. Previously confined to the Great Plains, brown‑headed cowbirds quickly invaded the newly opened habitat. Unfortunately, cowbirds parasitize other species by laying its eggs in their nests. A cowbird hatchling then pushes out all other nestlings, killing the parasitized species’ next generation. The loss of 40 million cowbirds only benefits our “continental avifauna”.
Several bird species had evolved to colonize forest openings naturally produced by fire, or floods or high winds. Those species “unnaturally” boomed when 50% to 80% of northeastern United States became de-forested by 1900. Still, eastern trees will reclaim a forest opening within 20 years, so open habitat species require a constant supply of forest openings. However as marginal farms and pastures were abandoned, fires were suppressed and logging reduced, forests increasingly reclaimed those openings. With a 50% decline in forest openings, their bird species also declined; now approaching pre-colonial numbers. Accordingly, birds of the expanding forest interior like woodpeckers are now increasing.
White-throated Sparrows and Dark-eyed Juncos quickly colonize forest openings but then disappear within a few years as the forest recovers. Those 2 species alone accounted for the loss of another quarter of a billion birds; not because of an ecosystem collapse, but because forests were reclaiming human altered habitat. Nonetheless those species are still 400 million strong, and juncos remain abundant in the open habitat maintained by suburban back yards. If environmentalists want to reclaim the abundance of their boom years, they must manage forest openings with logging or prescribed burns.
Insect outbreaks also create forest openings. For hundreds of years forests across Canada and northeastern US have been decimated every few decades by spruce bud worm eruptions. So, forest managers now spray to limit further outbreaks. Today there are an estimated 111 million living Tennessee Warblers that have specialized to feed on spruce bud worms. But the warbler’s numbers have declined by 80 million because insect outbreaks are more controlled. Still they have never been threatened with extinction. Conservationists must determine what is a reasonable warbler abundance while still protecting forests from devastating insect infestations.
The grassland biome accounted for the greatest declines, about 700 million birds. Indeed, natural grasslands had been greatly reduced by centuries of expanding agriculture and grazing. But in recent times more efficient agriculture has allowed more land to revert to “natural” states. However fossil fuel fears reversed that trend. In 2005 federal fuel policies began instituting subsidies to encourage biofuel production. As a result, 17 million more acres of grassland have been converted to corn fields for ethanol since 2006.
Although still very abundant, just 3 species account for the loss of 400 million grassland birds: Horned Larks, Savannah Sparrows and Grasshopper Sparrows. Horned Larks alone accounted for 182 million fewer birds due to a loss of very short grass habitats with some bare ground. To increase their numbers, studies show more grazing, mowing or burning will increase their preferred habitat.
It must be emphasized that the reported cumulative loss of 2.9 billion birds since 1970, does not signify ecosystem collapses. But there are some legitimate concerns such as maintaining wetlands. And there are some serious human-caused problems we need to remedy to increase struggling bird populations. It is estimated that cats kill between 1 to 3 billion birds each year. Up to 1 billion birds each year die by crashing into the illusions created by window reflections. Collisions with cars and trucks likely kill 89 to 350 million birds a year. Instead of fearmongering ecosystem collapse, our avifauna would best be served by addressing those problems.
Questioning Bird Models
Population estimates for most land birds are based on data from the US Geological Surveys Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS). I conducted 2 BBS surveys on the Tahoe National Forest for 20 years. Each survey route consists of 50 stops, each a half‑mile apart. At each stop for a period of just 3 minutes, I would record all observed birds, the overwhelming majority of which are heard but not seen. Many birds can be missed in such a short time, but the BBS designers decided a 3-minute observation time allowed the day’s survey to cover more habitat. Each year on about the same date, the BBS survey was repeated.
Each BBS route surveys perhaps 1% the region’s landscape. To estimate each species’ population for the whole region, the survey’s observations are extrapolated and modeled. However, models rely on several assumptions and adjustments, and those assumptions that can inflate final estimates. For example, in 2004 researchers estimated there were 6,500,000 Rufous Hummingbirds. By 2017, researchers estimated there were now 21,690,000. But that larger population cannot be deemed a conservation success. That tripling of abundance was mostly due to new adjustments.
Because singing males account for most observations, the number of observed birds is doubled to account for an unobserved female that is most likely nearby. Furthermore, it is assumed different species are more readily detected than others. The models assume that each stop will account for all the birds within a 400‑meter radius. Because a crow is readily detected over that distance, no adjustments are made to the number of observed crows. But hummingbirds are not so easily detected. The earlier surveys assumed a hummingbird could only be detected if it was within an 80‑meter radius. So, to standardize the observations to an area with a 400‑meter radius, observations were multiplied by 25. Recent survey models now assume hummingbirds can only be detected within 50 meters, so their observations are now adjusted by multiplying by 64.
Thus, depending on their detection adjustments, one real observation could generate 50 or 128 virtual hummingbirds. That number is further scaled up to account for the time‑of‑day effects and the likely number of birds in the region’s un-surveyed landscapes.
Setting aside assumptions about the regional homogeneity of birds’ habitat, one very real problem with these adjustments that has yet to be addressed. If one bird is no longer observed at a roadside stop, the model assumes that the other 127 virtual birds also died.
Survey routes are done along roadsides and up to 340 million birds are killed by vehicles each year. Many sparrows and warblers are ground nesters and will fly low to the ground. Many seed eating birds like finches will congregate along a roadside to ingest the small gravel needed to internally grind their seeds. Every year I watched a small flock of Evening Grosbeaks ingesting gravel from the shoulder of a country road, get picked off one by one by passing cars. Roadside vegetation often differs from off-road vegetation. Roads initially create openings that are suitable for one species but are gradually grown over during the lifetime of a survey to become unsuitable habitat. So, it should never be assumed that the loss of roadside observations represents a decline for the whole region.
The larger the models’ detectability adjustments are for a given species, the greater the probability that any declining trend in roadside observations will exaggerate a species population loss for the region. The greatest population losses were modeled for warblers and sparrows and most warbler and sparrow data are adjusted for detectability by multiplying actual observations 4 to 10-fold. It is worth reporting good news from recent studies in National Parks that used a much greater density of observation points and were not confined to roadsides. Their observation points were also much closer together and thus required fewer assumptions and adjustments. Of the 50 species they observed, all but 3 populations were stable.
Pushing a fake crisis, Rosenberg et al argued that declining numbers within a species that is still still very abundant doesn’t mean they are not threatened with a quick collapse. He highlighted the Passenger Pigeon was once one of the most abundant birds in North America and they quickly went extinct by 1914. That doomsday scenario was often repeated by the media. But comparison to the Passenger Pigeon’s demise is a false equivalency. Passenger Pigeons were hunted for food when people were suffering from much greater food insecurity.
Rosenberg et al summarized their study with one sentence: “Cumulative loss of nearly three billion birds since 1970, across most North American biomes, signals a pervasive and ongoing avifaunal crisis.” But it signals no such thing. Wise management will continue. With better accounting of the natural causes of each species declines, plus more accurate modeling, it will be seen that Rosenberg’s “crisis” was just another misleading apocalyptic story that further erodes public trust in us honest environmental scientists.
Jim Steele is director emeritus of the Sierra Nevada Field Campus, SFSU and authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism.
Contact: naturalclimatechange@earthlink.net


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--Green Energy Prof Faces $1 Million Legal Fee Over Failed Attempt To Silence His Critics

Attempting to shut down debate and demonizing the opposition is one of the hallmarks of the all-renewable-energy tribe .
Last week , anti-hydrocarbon activist and documentary maker Josh Fox — along with Stanford professor Mark Jacobson , Penn State climatologist Michael Mann , and several others — succeeded in briefly getting Michael Moore ’ s new documentary , Planet of the Humans , taken off of a website owned by a group called Films for Action .
Fox ’ s censorship effort was cheered by Eric Holthaus , a meteorologist and journalist who tweeted “ cheers to @ joshfoxfilm and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make sure this dangerous film was retracted.
” The DailyKos dutifully ran a story with the headline “ Distributor pulls Michael Moore ’ s ( @ MMFlint ’ s ) # PlanetOfTheHumans due to truthiness.
” But the “ dangerous film ” didn ’ t disappear .
Planet of the Humans , which was directed and narrated by Jeff Gibbs , was never removed from YouTube .
By Thursday afternoon , it had been viewed more than 4.6 million times .
Fox ’ s censorship campaign led Planet of the Humans to post @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it does not “ know of , or have any relationship with , an outfit called ‘ Films for Action , ’ ” and that any “ information disseminated to the contrary is false.
” I have plenty of criticisms of Planet of the Humans .
It ’ s an anti-human film that ignores our need for affordable and reliable energy to survive .
It ignores the need for nuclear energy to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions ; and it completely ignores the scourge of energy poverty .
That ’ s an inexcusable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the planet today have no access to electricity and another two billion or so are only using tiny amounts of juice .
But it ’ s also apparent that Planet of the Humans is an important film .
The fact that Moore — the most successful documentary-film-maker in America as well as its most famous liberal who ’ s not a politician – would produce a film that attacks wind energy , solar energy , the Sierra Club , Al Gore , David Blood , Bill McKibben , and Vinod Khosla represents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and climate change .
For causing so much trouble , Moore and Gibbs are being branded as apostates .
To my ear , the outrage coming from Fox , McKibben , and others to Planet of the Humans sound like Greta Thunberg ’ s now-famous cri de coeur : “ How dare you !
” But the effort to gag Planet of the Humans reveals something more sinister : the refusal by leading climate activists and academics to have an honest discussion about the limits of renewable energy and why renewables alone can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solve the problem of energy poverty .
As a friend of mine put it , “ The climatocracy can ’ t tolerate debate or disagreement.
” Indeed , the belief that many high-profile climate activists and academics have in renewable energy borders on the cultish .
As Gibbs asks at one point in the film , “ Could we have a religion that we are unaware of ?
” Attempting to shut down debate and demonizing the opposition is one of the hallmarks of the all-renewable-energy tribe .
And there ’ s no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Fox ’ s effort to censor Planet of the Humans was launched just two days after his ally , Jacobson , was reproached by a federal court for trying to intimidate one of his critics by filing a frivolous lawsuit against him .
On April 20 , Jacobson was ordered to pay the legal fees of Chris Clack , the Colorado mathematician who Jacobson sued in 2017 for $ 10 million on claims that Clack had defamed him .
Jacobson ’ s lawsuit , which also named the National Academy of Sciences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SLAPP suit , or strategic litigation against public participation .
What was Clack ’ s sin ?
He , along with nearly two dozen other prominent scientists , debunked the claims that Jacobson was making about – what else ?
— renewable energy .
The post Green Energy Prof Faces $ 1 Million Legal Fee Over Failed Attempt To Silence His Critics appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Attempting to shut down debate and demonizing the opposition is one of the hallmarks of the all-renewable-energy tribe.
Last week, anti-hydrocarbon activist and documentary maker Josh Fox — along with Stanford professor Mark Jacobson, Penn State climatologist Michael Mann, and several others — succeeded in briefly getting Michael Moore’s new documentary, Planet of the Humans, taken off of a website owned by a group called Films for Action.
Fox’s censorship effort was cheered by Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist and journalist who tweeted “cheers to @joshfoxfilm and everyone who worked hard and quickly to make sure this dangerous film was retracted.” The DailyKos dutifully ran a story with the headline “Distributor pulls Michael Moore’s (@MMFlint’s) #PlanetOfTheHumans due to truthiness.”
But the “dangerous film” didn’t disappear. Planet of the Humans, which was directed and narrated by Jeff Gibbs, was never removed from YouTube. By Thursday afternoon, it had been viewed more than 4.6 million times. Fox’s censorship campaign led Planet of the Humans to post a note on its website saying that it does not “know of, or have any relationship with, an outfit called ‘Films for Action,’” and that any “information disseminated to the contrary is false.”
I have plenty of criticisms of Planet of the Humans. It’s an anti-human film that ignores our need for affordable and reliable energy to survive. It ignores the need for nuclear energy to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and it completely ignores the scourge of energy poverty. That’s an inexcusable omission given that about one billion people on the planet today have no access to electricity and another two billion or so are only using tiny amounts of juice.
But it’s also apparent that Planet of the Humans is an important film. The fact that Moore — the most successful documentary-film-maker in America as well as its most famous liberal who’s not a politician – would produce a film that attacks wind energy, solar energy, the Sierra Club, Al Gore, David Blood, Bill McKibben, and Vinod Khosla represents a rupture in left-leaning orthodoxy about energy and climate change. For causing so much trouble, Moore and Gibbs are being branded as apostates. To my ear, the outrage coming from Fox, McKibben, and others to Planet of the Humans sound like Greta Thunberg’s now-famous cri de coeur: “How dare you!”
But the effort to gag Planet of the Humans reveals something more sinister: the refusal by leading climate activists and academics to have an honest discussion about the limits of renewable energy and why renewables alone cannot save us from climate change or solve the problem of energy poverty. As a friend of mine put it, “The climatocracy can’t tolerate debate or disagreement.” Indeed, the belief that many high-profile climate activists and academics have in renewable energy borders on the cultish. As Gibbs asks at one point in the film, “Could we have a religion that we are unaware of?”
Attempting to shut down debate and demonizing the opposition is one of the hallmarks of the all-renewable-energy tribe. And there’s no small bit of irony in the fact that Fox’s effort to censor Planet of the Humans was launched just two days after his ally, Jacobson, was reproached by a federal court for trying to intimidate one of his critics by filing a frivolous lawsuit against him. On April 20, Jacobson was ordered to pay the legal fees of Chris Clack, the Colorado mathematician who Jacobson sued in 2017 for $10 million on claims that Clack had defamed him. Jacobson’s lawsuit, which also named the National Academy of Sciences, was a classic example of a SLAPP suit, or strategic litigation against public participation. What was Clack’s sin? He, along with nearly two dozen other prominent scientists, debunked the claims that Jacobson was making about – what else? — renewable energy.
The post Green Energy Prof Faces $1 Million Legal Fee Over Failed Attempt To Silence His Critics appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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May 1, 2020 at 02:51AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--New Study Finds Wind Turbine Noise Driving Neighbours From Their Homes

What wind farm neighbours have to tolerate is nothing short of criminal : incessant turbine generated low-frequency noise and infrasound @ @ @ @ @ where they have the option , out of their homes altogether .
The most common @ @ @ @ @ wind turbine noise emissions is sleep deprivation , which brings with it a grab [ @ @

What wind farm neighbours have to tolerate is nothing short of criminal: incessant turbine generated low-frequency noise and infrasound drives neighbours nuts and, where they have the option, out of their homes altogether. The most common adverse health effect caused by wind turbine noise emissions is sleep deprivation, which brings with it a grab […]
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May 1, 2020 at 02:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--NASA space lasers show sea levels have risen by 14mm in 17 years – but what’s the latest trend?

Less than a year ago NASA was reporting from Greenland : Jakobshavn Glacier Grows for Third Straight Year , and ‘ The glacier grew 22 to 33 yards ( 20 to 30 meters ) each year between 2016 and 2019.
’ So this new report may be , to some degree at least , already obsolete since it says : ‘ The largest thinning rates were between 4 and 6 m a−1 in Jakobshavn and Kangerlugssuaq glaciers ’ .
– – – Sea levels have risen by 14mm since 2003 due to ice melting in Antarctica and Greenland , scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to measure global heights in 2018 and spotted the rise after bouncing laser pulses against sheets of ice , says the London Evening Standard .
The study found that Greenland lost an average of 200 billion tonnes of ice per year , and Antarctica lost an average of 118 billion tonnes .
One billion tonnes of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools .
A team led by researchers at the University of Washington compared the data with measurements taken by the satellite between 2003 and 2009 .
The findings , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the loss of ice from Antarctica and Greenland outweighs any gains from accumulated snow .
Lead author Benjamin Smith , a glaciologist at the University of Washington , said : “ If you watch a glacier or ice sheet for a month , or a year , you ’ re not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it .
“ We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 [ satellites one and two ] and can be much more confident that the changes we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the long-term changes in the climate .
“ And ICESat-2 is a really remarkable tool for making these measurements .
We ’ re seeing high-quality measurements that carpet both ice sheets , which let us make a detailed and precise comparison with the ICESat data .
”

Less than a year ago NASA was reporting from Greenland: Jakobshavn Glacier Grows for Third Straight Year, and ‘The glacier grew 22 to 33 yards (20 to 30 meters) each year between 2016 and 2019.’ So this new report may be, to some degree at least, already obsolete since it says: ‘The largest thinning rates were between 4 and 6 m a−1 in Jakobshavn and Kangerlugssuaq glaciers’.
– – –
Sea levels have risen by 14mm since 2003 due to ice melting in Antarctica and Greenland, scientists have said.
Nasa launched a satellite to measure global heights in 2018 and spotted the rise after bouncing laser pulses against sheets of ice, says the London Evening Standard.
The study found that Greenland lost an average of 200 billion tonnes of ice per year, and Antarctica lost an average of 118 billion tonnes.
One billion tonnes of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
A team led by researchers at the University of Washington compared the data with measurements taken by the satellite between 2003 and 2009.
The findings, published in the journal Science, found the loss of ice from Antarctica and Greenland outweighs any gains from accumulated snow.
Lead author Benjamin Smith, a glaciologist at the University of Washington, said: “If you watch a glacier or ice sheet for a month, or a year, you’re not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it.
“We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 [satellites one and two] and can be much more confident that the changes we’re seeing in the ice have to do with the long-term changes in the climate.
“And ICESat-2 is a really remarkable tool for making these measurements. We’re seeing high-quality measurements that carpet both ice sheets, which let us make a detailed and precise comparison with the ICESat data.”
Full article here.
– – –
AAAS Science report: Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes.
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May 1, 2020 at 02:18AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--Al Jazeera Climate Change Misanthropy: “Will coronavirus help nature reclaim the Earth?”

Yet another green celebrating the retreat of humans in the face of a deadly epidemic .
The Green Read : Will coronavirus help nature reclaim the Earth ?
There are signs of wildlife flourishing in the absence of humans , but COVID-19 has also slowed conservation efforts .
In these times when we need to seek out positives to counter the gloom , there are many good things happening in the natural world .
In the space wrought open by COVID-19 , a quiet has descended on parts of our planet previously drowned out by normal life thundering on .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that rely on the daily whirl to survive but it is happening , so let us drink it in .
In our cities , the thrum of traffic and construction and planes passing overhead has given way to the boisterous dawn chorus .
This daily symphony of birdsong is more audible than it has been in decades in urban areas this northern spring .
Even the ocean depths are quieter with fewer ships at sea , and marine biologists are taking this rare opportunity to study the impact the lack of churning , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Worldwide emissions are down and the air we breathe is cleaner .
Wildlife in river and estuary , field and hedgerow and even on the urban fringe , is making hay in the absence of the human hordes and their vehicles .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Yet another green celebrating the retreat of humans in the face of a deadly epidemic.
The Green Read: Will coronavirus help nature reclaim the Earth?
There are signs of wildlife flourishing in the absence of humans, but COVID-19 has also slowed conservation efforts.
by Nick Clark 30 Apr 2020
In these times when we need to seek out positives to counter the gloom, there are many good things happening in the natural world. In the space wrought open by COVID-19, a quiet has descended on parts of our planet previously drowned out by normal life thundering on.
It is of small comfort to businesses that rely on the daily whirl to survive but it is happening, so let us drink it in.
In our cities, the thrum of traffic and construction and planes passing overhead has given way to the boisterous dawn chorus. This daily symphony of birdsong is more audible than it has been in decades in urban areas this northern spring.
Even the ocean depths are quieter with fewer ships at sea, and marine biologists are taking this rare opportunity to study the impact the lack of churning, droning propellers will have on ocean life.
Worldwide emissions are down and the air we breathe is cleaner. Wildlife in river and estuary, field and hedgerow and even on the urban fringe, is making hay in the absence of the human hordes and their vehicles.
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--US state prisons, 3,277 inmates test positive for coronavirus — 96% show no symptoms

The death rate may be far , far lower than we ’ re being led to believe .
As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons , large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms .
In four state prison systems — Arkansas , North Carolina , Ohio and Virginia — 96 % of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic ( meaning that they showed no symptoms ) , according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters .
Reuters surveyed all 50 state prison systems .
Of the 30 that responded , most are only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they could be vastly undercounting the number infected by the coronavirus .
“ Prison agencies are almost certainly vastly undercounting the number of COVID cases among incarcerated persons , ” said Michele Deitch , a corrections specialist and senior lecturer at the University of Texas .
This means that the death rate may be far , far lower than we ’ re being led to believe .
Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link “ You read right , ” says Stephen .
“ Everybody ’ s got it but it don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a par with a cold than influenza except for an unlucky few.
” The post US state prisons , 3,277 inmates test positive for coronavirus — 96 % show no symptoms appeared first on Ice Age Now .

The death rate may be far, far lower than we’re being led to believe.
____________
As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems — Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic (meaning that they showed no symptoms) , according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters.
Vast Undercount
Reuters surveyed all 50 state prison systems. Of the 30 that responded, most are only testing inmates who show symptoms, suggesting they could be vastly undercounting the number infected by the coronavirus.
“Prison agencies are almost certainly vastly undercounting the number of COVID cases among incarcerated persons,” said Michele Deitch, a corrections specialist and senior lecturer at the University of Texas.
This means that the death rate may be far, far lower than we’re being led to believe.
See entire article:
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/04/25/623913/US-state-prisons-inmates-coronavirus-pandemic-
Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link
“You read right,” says Stephen. “Everybody’s got it but it don’t show. It’s more on a par with a cold than influenza except for an unlucky few.”
The post US state prisons, 3,277 inmates test positive for coronavirus — 96% show no symptoms appeared first on Ice Age Now.
via Ice Age Now
https://ift.tt/2yfAwtI
April 30, 2020 at 08:13PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--Australian energy security on the brink

Australian energy security on the brink

The Australian electric power supply is on the edge of a cliff because one more substantial coal-fired power station is scheduled to close in 2023 .
Then for the first time we will need input from the wind at the evening peak , certainly in very hot and cold weather .
If this input is not available there will be blackouts of greater or lesser extent .
The bottom line of this argument is that RE can not replace conventional power in Australia because at the lowest level of supply of sun and wind they deliver no power .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , like the point where the air supply to our lungs is cut off by choking or drowning .
To keep the lights on there must be enough conventional power available to meet 100 % of the demand , 24 hours a day/365 days a year .
In recent years Australia has led the world in the rate of building RE capacity .
Inspired by this rate of progress the Federal Opposition ( Labor ) party and the state governments ( Labor and Liberal alike ) have committed to push for zero emissions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem this target is not realistic because we have no neighbours to help with power if we are short and we have no nuclear power despite holding a third of the known reserves of uranium in the world .
That is a result of the international campaign against nuclear power in the 1960s and 1970s that was successful in Australia http : //www.the-rathouse.com/2011/Grover-Power.html The introduction of intermittent energy into the grid doubled the retail price of electricity and hastened the demise of 12 coal-fired power stations since 2010 .
Almost 6GW of capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia ( excluding Western Australia and the Northern Territory ) .
That is a significant loss in comparison with the high point of demand at dinnertime that is around 25GW for most of the year and over 30GW in high summer After the last coal power station closure in 2017 the Energy Market Operator ( AEMO ) issued a warning that we have next to no spare capacity to handle peak loads .
At the same time the CEO , Ms Audrey Zibelman , was giving talks around the country to say we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power all at the same time .
Ms Zibelman was imported from New York by the ex-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull to oversight the transition to green energy .
Blackouts in some Melbourne suburbs in January 2019 demonstrated the lack of spare capacity when a coal-fired generator failed and took some 500MW out of the system on a hot summer afternoon .
Another station providing almost 2GW of coal power is scheduled to close in 2023 .
Then for the first time the intermittent providers will be called upon to supply energy regularly to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation where they were surplus to requirements and just displaced conventional power when the sun shone and the wind blew .
This discussion focuses on the capacity of the wind system because the lack of solar power after sunset is a given at the current state of storage technology .
The question is : How much wind capacity is required to substitute for 1.8GW from Liddell Power Station ?
We have 7GW of installed wind capacity at present with some 7GW under construction .
On the face of it , 14GW looks like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coal power but everyone in the industry knows that the supply over a year is about 30 % of installed ( plated ) capacity .
That shrinks 14GW to 4.2GW and that still looks good compared with 1.8GW but that is not the end of the story .
The critical number for the viability of continuous , secure power from the wind , in the absence of mass storage , is the lowest point of the wind supply .
The average is no more helpful than the installed capacity if the grid depends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not just an addition to an adequate supply from other sources .
Several analogies can be used to reinforce the point .
A chain is only as strong as the weakest link .
Your car will stop running when the petrol tank is empty regardless of its capacity .
The supply of air that your lungs received in the previous years of your life will not help when you are choking or drowning ; that is the choke point and death soon follows .
Warning signs .
The low points in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politicians take any notice of the warning signs that there is not enough reliable wind to make the RE transition without feasible and affordable mass storage ?
The Bureau of Meteorology ( BOM ) does not publish in its information on cloud cover and wind but it surely the vital data would have been made available on request from the Government or statutory authorities planning to spend tens of billions of dollars to subsidise intermittent energy .
Extended adverse weather events have been reported in the past , for example in the Murray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ A drought of a very different kind occurred in March and April of 1934 .
Because Lameroo sits above our underground water supply , windmills ( wind pumps ) were used to draw water to the surface for stock water and personal use – windmills paved the way for Mallee agriculture .
The period from mid-March to the end of April was almost completely windless ; therefore no water .
Farmers were soon desperate for stock water…… .
http : //www.malleehighway.com.au/html/lameroo.html In recent times the AEMO with a continuous record of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attached to the South Eastern Australia grid .
Paul Miskelly used that data for the calendar year 2010 to find that the total wind output across the entire grid fell rapidly to zero or near zero on many occasions in the year .
Some of the episodes involved multiple falls and rises in quick succession .
• During the first 6 months of the year , there are 58 intervals where the output falls below 2 % of the installed capacity .
The longest such interval is 229 consecutive 5-minute time steps , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred in May .
• During one such event , on May 18 , on two occasions , the total output actually dropped to slightly below zero , the first starting at 2.50 am and lasting 40 minutes , the second commencing at 4.35 am and lasting for 70 minutes .
• For the entire year , there are 109 such intervals of varying length , comprised of a total number of 1867 5-minute intervals , totalling 155.6 hours , or nearly 6.5 days .
The net result is that a fleet of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capacity to that of the total installed wind capacity , constantly operational in standby mode , is required to balance wind ’ s mercurial behaviour .
( Miskelly , 2012 ) .
The wind fleet in 2010 consisted of 23 wind farms with a total capacity just short of 2GW and as the number of sites increased there was an expectation that the supply would become more reliable .
John Morgan reported that the situation was much the same in the 12 month period from Sep 2014 to Sept 2015 when the capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He found 29 days in the year with the fleet delivering less than 10 % of capacity .
The lowest was 2.7 % and there were seven sets of successive low wind days .
https : //bravenewclimate.com/2015/11/08/the-capacity-factor-of-wind/ The collective capacity of the SE Australian windfarms has now passed 7GW ( in early 2020 ) and the problem of reliability persists , even to the extent of occasional wind droughts .
Mike O ’ Ceirin , an independent analyst , has unpublished information collated from the AEMO records over a seven-year period that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year when the delivery is 6 % or less of the installed capacity .
The AEMO data in recent months show that the supply frequently falls below 10 % of installed capacity .
10 % is by no means the lowest level of supply but it provides an instant guide to the amount of power coming from the installed capacity as the supply falls towards the minimum .
In December 2019 there were eight episodes in the month when the supply fell below 10 % of installed capacity and one where it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers were twelve and three , for February nine and two , March six and two , and April so far nine and three .
The longest durations for the low periods were 16.5 hours on 18-19 April , 13.5 hours on 13 April , 9 hours on 29 Feb , 6 April and 7 April , 7.5 hours on 31 March and 7 hours on 29 December .
All of the long “ dry ” spells were potentially disastrous for the power supply if wind was required to make a contribution to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is a point that has so far eluded the wind proponents who look at the good days and announce that we are making progress towards a green future .
RE supporters pin their hopes on storage by batteries and pumped hydro to fill the gaps between the peaks of wind and sun .
Clearly battery storage on the scale required is out of the question for the foreseeable future and much the same applies to pumped hydro in Australia .
The ambitious Snowy2.0 pumped hdro project is under way and it could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ windfleet to provide 2GW of continuous power .
Going on to replace the rest of the coal fleet would require some six or seven times the current capacity of wind power and six or seven Snowy2.0 equivalents without any suitable sites available for that scale of development .
In any case Snowy2.0 will not be completed for many years and urgent action is required to find almost 2GW of reliable power from other source before the next coal station closure that is scheduled for 2023 .
The proponents of wind and solar power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appreciate the logic of refutation .
A single ( true ) fact can refute a universal proposition .
One first black swan refutes the notion that all swans are white .
The proposition that we can run the grid on RE is refuted by a single period when there is not enough RE to run the grid .
How often are we prepared to have the power supply fail ?
Infrastructure like drains and flood levies are built to withstand events of various frequency – 10 years , 20 , 50 , 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dams presumably have to be designed to handle just about the most severe events that can be envisaged and the electricity supply should have the same evel of reliability .
It can ’ t be allowed to fail three times in a month which is what would have happened in SE Australia in April .
Anero site with data from the Australian Energy Market Operator https : //anero.id/energy/ .

Rafe Champion, Independent Scholar, Sydney
The Australian electric power supply is on the edge of a cliff because one more substantial coal-fired power station is scheduled to close in 2023. Then for the first time we will need input from the wind at the evening peak, certainly in very hot and cold weather. If this input is not available there will be blackouts of greater or lesser extent.
The bottom line of this argument is that RE cannot replace conventional power in Australia because at the lowest level of supply of sun and wind they deliver no power. That is the choke point for the grid, like the point where the air supply to our lungs is cut off by choking or drowning. To keep the lights on there must be enough conventional power available to meet 100% of the demand, 24 hours a day/365 days a year.
In recent years Australia has led the world in the rate of building RE capacity. Inspired by this rate of progress the Federal Opposition (Labor) party and the state governments (Labor and Liberal alike) have committed to push for zero emissions by 2050.
Given the choke point problem this target is not realistic because we have no neighbours to help with power if we are short and we have no nuclear power despite holding a third of the known reserves of uranium in the world. That is a result of the international campaign against nuclear power in the 1960s and 1970s that was successful in Australia http://www.the-rathouse.com/2011/Grover-Power.html
Background
The introduction of intermittent energy into the grid doubled the retail price of electricity and hastened the demise of 12 coal-fired power stations since 2010. Almost 6GW of capacity left the integrated grid covering South Eastern Australia (excluding Western Australia and the Northern Territory). That is a significant loss in comparison with the high point of demand at dinnertime that is around 25GW for most of the year and over 30GW in high summer
After the last coal power station closure in 2017 the Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a warning that we have next to no spare capacity to handle peak loads. At the same time the CEO, Ms Audrey Zibelman, was giving talks around the country to say we can have cleaner, cheaper and reliable power all at the same time. Ms Zibelman was imported from New York by the ex-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull to oversight the transition to green energy.
Blackouts in some Melbourne suburbs in January 2019 demonstrated the lack of spare capacity when a coal-fired generator failed and took some 500MW out of the system on a hot summer afternoon.
The cliff
Another station providing almost 2GW of coal power is scheduled to close in 2023. Then for the first time the intermittent providers will be called upon to supply energy regularly to keep the lights on, unlike the situation where they were surplus to requirements and just displaced conventional power when the sun shone and the wind blew.
This discussion focuses on the capacity of the wind system because the lack of solar power after sunset is a given at the current state of storage technology. The question is: How much wind capacity is required to substitute for 1.8GW from Liddell Power Station?
We have 7GW of installed wind capacity at present with some 7GW under construction. On the face of it, 14GW looks like a good cover for 1.8GW of lost coal power but everyone in the industry knows that the supply over a year is about 30% of installed (plated) capacity. That shrinks 14GW to 4.2GW and that still looks good compared with 1.8GW but that is not the end of the story.
The critical number for the viability of continuous, secure power from the wind, in the absence of mass storage, is the lowest point of the wind supply. The average is no more helpful than the installed capacity if the grid depends on wind power as a vital contributor, not just an addition to an adequate supply from other sources.
Several analogies can be used to reinforce the point. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link. Your car will stop running when the petrol tank is empty regardless of its capacity. The supply of air that your lungs received in the previous years of your life will not help when you are choking or drowning; that is the choke point and death soon follows.
Warning signs. The low points in the wind supply.
Did the planners and politicians take any notice of the warning signs that there is not enough reliable wind to make the RE transition without feasible and affordable mass storage? The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) does not publish in its information on cloud cover and wind but it surely the vital data would have been made available on request from the Government or statutory authorities planning to spend tens of billions of dollars to subsidise intermittent energy.
Extended adverse weather events have been reported in the past , for example in the Murray Mallee region of South Australia where:
“A drought of a very different kind occurred in March and April of 1934. Because Lameroo sits above our underground water supply, windmills (wind pumps) were used to draw water to the surface for stock water and personal use – windmills paved the way for Mallee agriculture. The period from mid-March to the end of April was almost completely windless; therefore no water. Farmers were soon desperate for stock water……. http://www.malleehighway.com.au/html/lameroo.html
In recent times the AEMO with a continuous record of the power delivered from all the wind farms attached to the South Eastern Australia grid. Paul Miskelly used that data for the calendar year 2010 to find that the total wind output across the entire grid fell rapidly to zero or near zero on many occasions in the year. Some of the episodes involved multiple falls and rises in quick succession.
During the first 6 months of the year, there are 58 intervals where the output falls below 2% of the installed capacity. The longest such interval is 229 consecutive 5-minute time steps, or 19 hours approximately. This event occurred in May.
During one such event, on May 18, on two occasions, the total output actually dropped to slightly below zero, the first starting at 2.50 am and lasting 40 minutes, the second commencing at 4.35 am and lasting for 70 minutes.
For the entire year, there are 109 such intervals of varying length, comprised of a total number of 1867 5-minute intervals, totalling 155.6 hours, or nearly 6.5 days.
The net result is that a fleet of new-build fast-acting OCGT plant, of comparable capacity to that of the total installed wind capacity, constantly operational in standby mode, is required to balance wind’s mercurial behaviour. (Miskelly, 2012).
The wind fleet in 2010 consisted of 23 wind farms with a total capacity just short of 2GW and as the number of sites increased there was an expectation that the supply would become more reliable. John Morgan reported that the situation was much the same in the 12 month period from Sep 2014 to Sept 2015 when the capacity of the wind fleet was approaching 4GW. He found 29 days in the year with the fleet delivering less than 10% of capacity. The lowest was 2.7% and there were seven sets of successive low wind days. https://bravenewclimate.com/2015/11/08/the-capacity-factor-of-wind/
The collective capacity of the SE Australian windfarms has now passed 7GW (in early 2020) and the problem of reliability persists, even to the extent of occasional wind droughts. Mike O’Ceirin, an independent analyst, has unpublished information collated from the AEMO records over a seven-year period that show an average of 15 episodes per year when the delivery is 6% or less of the installed capacity.
The AEMO data in recent months show that the supply frequently falls below 10% of installed capacity. 10% is by no means the lowest level of supply but it provides an instant guide to the amount of power coming from the installed capacity as the supply falls towards the minimum.
In December 2019 there were eight episodes in the month when the supply fell below 10% of installed capacity and one where it was below 5%. In January the numbers were twelve and three, for February nine and two, March six and two, and April so far nine and three. The longest durations for the low periods were 16.5 hours on 18-19 April, 13.5 hours on 13 April, 9 hours on 29 Feb, 6 April and 7 April, 7.5 hours on 31 March and 7 hours on 29 December.
All of the long “dry” spells were potentially disastrous for the power supply if wind was required to make a contribution to meet the demand in the grid and this is a point that has so far eluded the wind proponents who look at the good days and announce that we are making progress towards a green future.
RE supporters pin their hopes on storage by batteries and pumped hydro to fill the gaps between the peaks of wind and sun. Clearly battery storage on the scale required is out of the question for the foreseeable future and much the same applies to pumped hydro in Australia.
The ambitious Snowy2.0 pumped hdro project is under way and it could possibly function in partnership with the existing windfleet to provide 2GW of continuous power. Going on to replace the rest of the coal fleet would require some six or seven times the current capacity of wind power and six or seven Snowy2.0 equivalents without any suitable sites available for that scale of development.
In any case Snowy2.0 will not be completed for many years and urgent action is required to find almost 2GW of reliable power from other source before the next coal station closure that is scheduled for 2023.
The proponents of wind and solar power apparently either cannot or will not appreciate the logic of refutation. A single (true) fact can refute a universal proposition. One first black swan refutes the notion that all swans are white. The proposition that we can run the grid on RE is refuted by a single period when there is not enough RE to run the grid.
How often are we prepared to have the power supply fail? Infrastructure like drains and flood levies are built to withstand events of various frequency – 10 years, 20, 50, 100 years. Facilities like major bridges and dams presumably have to be designed to handle just about the most severe events that can be envisaged and the electricity supply should have the same evel of reliability. It can’t be allowed to fail three times in a month which is what would have happened in SE Australia in April.
References.
Anero site with data from the Australian Energy Market Operator https://anero.id/energy/.
Paul Miskelly (2012), Wind farms in Eastern Australia – recent lessons. Energy & Environment 23 (8). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1260/0958-305X.23.8.1233


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--Elon Musk: “Give people back their g*****n freedom.”

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO said Wednesday such restrictions have robbed Americans of their constitutional rights .
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk continued to voice his opposition to shelter-in-place orders imposed by some states to curb the spread of the coronavirus Wednesday , calling the restrictions “ fascist.
” Musk commented on California ’ s shelter-in-place order during Tesla ’ s earnings call , saying Tesla is worried about production at its Bay Area car factory , where the electric vehicle manufacturer builds the majority of its vehicles .
He likened the coronavirus restrictions implemented by the state to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” “ It ’ s breaking people ’ s freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why they came to America or built this country , ” Musk said .
“ If somebody wants to stay in their house that ’ s great , they should be allowed to stay in their house , they should not be compelled to leave , but to say that they can not leave their house and they will be arrested if they do , this is fascist , ” Musk added .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not freedom .
Give people back their goddamn freedom .
”

Guest +42×1042 to Elon Musk!
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO said Wednesday such restrictions have robbed Americans of their constitutional rights.
By Joseph Guzman
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk continued to voice his opposition to shelter-in-place orders imposed by some states to curb the spread of the coronavirus Wednesday, calling the restrictions “fascist.”
Musk commented on California’s shelter-in-place order during Tesla’s earnings call, saying Tesla is worried about production at its Bay Area car factory, where the electric vehicle manufacturer builds the majority of its vehicles. He likened the coronavirus restrictions implemented by the state to “forcibly imprisoning people in their homes.”
“It’s breaking people’s freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why they came to America or built this country,” Musk said.
“If somebody wants to stay in their house that’s great, they should be allowed to stay in their house, they should not be compelled to leave, but to say that they cannot leave their house and they will be arrested if they do, this is fascist,” Musk added. “This is not Democratic. This is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom.”
[…]


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--The Anticancer Garden in Australia

The Anticancer Garden in Australia

New book by David Archibald reviews the anticancer properties of ~140 plants in Australia .
160 pages of what looks @ @ @ @ @ that all of us should pay attention to cancer as we age .
Two sample @ @ @ @ @

New book by David Archibald reviews the anticancer properties of ~140 plants in Australia.
160 pages of what looks like fascinating stuff – considering that all of us should pay attention to cancer as we age. Two sample pages – p74 – p75
via Errors in IPCC climate science
https://ift.tt/3bYu214
May 1, 2020 at 01:23PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--UAH Global Temperature Update for April 2020: +0.38 deg. C

In April , 2020 , the Northern Hemisphere experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record .
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature ( LT ) anomaly for April , 2020 was +0.38 deg .
C , down from the March , 2020 value of +0.48 deg .
C. The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly fell from +0.96 deg .
C to 0.43 deg .
C from February to April , a 0.53 deg .
C drop which is the 2nd largest 2-month drop in the 497-month satellite record .
The largest 2-month drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1987 to February 1988 .
The linear warming trend since January , 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade ( but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans , and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land ) .
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year ( 1981-2010 ) average for the last 16 months are : The UAH LT global gridpoint anomaly image for April , 2020 should be available within the next week here .
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the following locations :

From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog
May 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
UPDATE: Changed emphasis from Northern Hemisphere extratropics to entire Northern Hemisphere (h/t John Christy)
In April, 2020, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2020 was +0.38 deg. C, down from the March, 2020 value of +0.48 deg. C.
The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly fell from +0.96 deg. C to 0.43 deg. C from February to April, a 0.53 deg. C drop which is the 2nd largest 2-month drop in the 497-month satellite record. The largest 2-month drop was -0.69 deg. C from December 1987 to February 1988.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade (but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2019 01 +0.38 +0.35 +0.41 +0.36 +0.53 -0.15 +1.15 2019 02 +0.37 +0.47 +0.28 +0.43 -0.02 +1.04 +0.06 2019 03 +0.35 +0.44 +0.25 +0.41 -0.55 +0.97 +0.59 2019 04 +0.44 +0.38 +0.51 +0.54 +0.49 +0.92 +0.91 2019 05 +0.32 +0.29 +0.35 +0.40 -0.61 +0.98 +0.39 2019 06 +0.47 +0.42 +0.52 +0.64 -0.64 +0.91 +0.35 2019 07 +0.38 +0.33 +0.44 +0.45 +0.10 +0.33 +0.87 2019 08 +0.39 +0.38 +0.39 +0.42 +0.17 +0.44 +0.24 2019 09 +0.62 +0.64 +0.59 +0.60 +1.14 +0.75 +0.57 2019 10 +0.46 +0.64 +0.28 +0.31 -0.03 +0.99 +0.50 2019 11 +0.55 +0.56 +0.54 +0.55 +0.21 +0.56 +0.38 2019 12 +0.56 +0.61 +0.50 +0.58 +0.92 +0.66 +0.94 2020 01 +0.57 +0.60 +0.53 +0.62 +0.73 +0.12 +0.66 2020 02 +0.76 +0.96 +0.55 +0.76 +0.38 +0.02 +0.30 2020 03 +0.48 +0.61 +0.34 +0.63 +1.09 -0.72 +0.17 2020 04 +0.38 +0.43 +0.34 +0.45 -0.59 +1.03 +0.97
The UAH LT global gridpoint anomaly image for April, 2020 should be available within the next week here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--April Arctic Ice Melting as Usual

April Arctic Ice Melting as Usual

The image above shows springtime melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the month of April 2020 .
As usual the process of decling ice extent follows a LIFO pattern : Last In First Out .
That is , the marginal seas are the last to freeze and the first to melt .
Thus at the top of the image , the Pacific basins of Bering and Okohtsk seas show a steady decline in ice .
Meanwhile at bottom left , Baffin Bay ice retreats from south to north .
Note center left Hudson Bay loses very little ice during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth bottom right , as patches of water appear in Barents and Kara Seas .
The graph below shows the ice extent retreating during April compared to some other years and the 13 year average ( 2007 to 2019 inclusive ) .
Note that the MASIE NH ice extent 13 year average loses about 1.2M km2 during April , down to 13.7M km2 .
MASIE 2019 started much lower and lost ice at a similar rate a faster icing rate , ending nearly 800k @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the middle of the other tracks , the most interesting thing being the wide divergence between SII and MASIE reports for April , with a sawtooth pattern alternating loses and gains .
The two idices were close in the beginning , but the gap grew to 600k km2 below narrowing at the end .
I inquired whether NIC had experienced any measurement issues , but their response indicated nothing remarkable .
It is notable that the MASIE is the low estimate of the two .
The table shows where the ice is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has the largest deficit to average followed by Bering and Okhotsk .
Greenland Sea and Barents Sea are in surplus , offsetting small deficits in Kara , Laptev and Hudson Bay .
Footnote : Interesting comments recently by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations this winter and spring .
Excerpts with my bolds .
As I sit here in home , enduring a second day of cloudy , wet , relatively cold and windy weather from a storm passing to our south and had this been winter would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ storm or pattern isn ’ t unique .
It seems that every few days here in the Northeastern US we get a rainstorm that had it been winter would have produced a snowstorm , though even these late season storms are bringing snow to the higher elevations of the Northeast .
I find myself asking ( and I realize that I am not unique asking this question ) – where was this pattern in winter ?
I reflexively look to the PV for answers .
The winter was characterized by a stronger than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meridional ( north to south ) , large amplitude flow and high latitude blocking that is so favorable for sustained cold air outbreaks and snowstorms .
Instead the strong PV supported fast zonal flow of the Jet Stream that was displaced to the north that favored overall mild temperatures and rainfall across the US except for higher elevations and near the Canadian border .
Similarly , an even milder and snowless pattern persisted across Europe all winter .
Then once winter was over , high pressure/blocking returned to the North Atlantic sector that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the troposphere to the stratosphere and has weakened the stratospheric PV .
This increase in vertical energy transfer has decelerated a hyperactive PV and it does appear that the weakening of the PV will actually overshoot the typical weakening resulting in stronger easterly winds in the polar stratosphere than the climatological average ( see Figure i ) .
Easterly winds in the polar stratosphere are the telltale sign of the Final Warming ( where the stratospheric PV disappears until the fall ) .
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth ’ s seasonal climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the four corners present views from top , bottom and sides .
It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents .

The image above shows springtime melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the month of April 2020. As usual the process of decling ice extent follows a LIFO pattern: Last In First Out. That is, the marginal seas are the last to freeze and the first to melt. Thus at the top of the image, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okohtsk seas show a steady decline in ice. Meanwhile at bottom left, Baffin Bay ice retreats from south to north. Note center left Hudson Bay loses very little ice during the month. The central mass of Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth bottom right, as patches of water appear in Barents and Kara Seas.
The graph below shows the ice extent retreating during April compared to some other years and the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).
Note that the MASIE NH ice extent 13 year average loses about 1.2M km2 during April, down to 13.7M km2. MASIE 2019 started much lower and lost ice at a similar rate a faster icing rate, ending nearly 800k km2 below average. This year started in the middle of the other tracks, the most interesting thing being the wide divergence between SII and MASIE reports for April, with a sawtooth pattern alternating loses and gains. The two idices were close in the beginning, but the gap grew to 600k km2 below narrowing at the end. I inquired whether NIC had experienced any measurement issues, but their response indicated nothing remarkable. It is notable that the MASIE is the low estimate of the two.
Region 2020121 Day 121 Average 2020-Ave. 2019121 2020-2019 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13091644 13517638 -425994 12730893 360751 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070307 1067944 2363 1070463 -156 (2) Chukchi_Sea 961124 952949 8175 909505 51619 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1081646 1085858 -4212 1082230 -585 (4) Laptev_Sea 851288 891300 -40012 897845 -46557 (5) Kara_Sea 860722 909170 -48448 917303 -56581 (6) Barents_Sea 588361 546921 41440 557814 30547 (7) Greenland_Sea 769073 634171 134902 487626 281446 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1001748 1240703 -238955 1113262 -111514 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 849940 848790 1150 853337 -3397 (10) Hudson_Bay 1209082 1242060 -32978 1255410 -46328 (11) Central_Arctic 3245999 3236485 9514 3245152 846 (12) Bering_Sea 337849 466262 -128413 93641 244208 (13) Baltic_Sea 5973 20676 -14703 10318 -4345 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 257268 371173 -113905 235299 21969
The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average. Baffin Bay has the largest deficit to average followed by Bering and Okhotsk. Greenland Sea and Barents Sea are in surplus, offsetting small deficits in Kara, Laptev and Hudson Bay.
Footnote: Interesting comments recently by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations this winter and spring. Excerpts with my bolds.
As I sit here in home, enduring a second day of cloudy, wet, relatively cold and windy weather from a storm passing to our south and had this been winter would have brought a crippling snowstorm. And this storm or pattern isn’t unique. It seems that every few days here in the Northeastern US we get a rainstorm that had it been winter would have produced a snowstorm, though even these late season storms are bringing snow to the higher elevations of the Northeast. I find myself asking (and I realize that I am not unique asking this question) – where was this pattern in winter?
I reflexively look to the PV for answers. The winter was characterized by a stronger than normal stratospheric PV that was hostile to meridional (north to south), large amplitude flow and high latitude blocking that is so favorable for sustained cold air outbreaks and snowstorms. Instead the strong PV supported fast zonal flow of the Jet Stream that was displaced to the north that favored overall mild temperatures and rainfall across the US except for higher elevations and near the Canadian border. Similarly, an even milder and snowless pattern persisted across Europe all winter.
Then once winter was over, high pressure/blocking returned to the North Atlantic sector that excited the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere and has weakened the stratospheric PV. This increase in vertical energy transfer has decelerated a hyperactive PV and it does appear that the weakening of the PV will actually overshoot the typical weakening resulting in stronger easterly winds in the polar stratosphere than the climatological average (see Figure i). Easterly winds in the polar stratosphere are the telltale sign of the Final Warming (where the stratospheric PV disappears until the fall).
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.
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May 1, 2020 at 11:48AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--Global Temps Drop Back A Bit

Global Temps Drop Back A Bit

In April , 2020 , the Northern Hemisphere extratropics experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month @ @ @ @ @ 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature ( LT ) anomaly for April , 2020 was @ @ @ @ @ down from the March , 2020 value of +0.48 deg .
C. The Northern Hemisphere @ @ @ @ @ +1.04 deg .
C to 0.41 deg .
C from February to April , a @ @ @ @ @ which is tied ( with January 1997 ) for the 2nd largest 2-month drop in @ @ @ @ @ The largest 2-month drop was -0.77 deg .
C from December 1987 to February 1988 @ @ @ @ @ since January , 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade ( but remains statistically unchanged @ @ @ @ @ global-averaged oceans , and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land ) .
The post Global Temps @ @ @ @ @ first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

In April, 2020, the Northern Hemisphere extratropics experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2020 was +0.38 deg. C, down from the March, 2020 value of +0.48 deg. C.
The Northern Hemisphere extratropical temperature anomaly fell from +1.04 deg. C to 0.41 deg. C from February to April, a 0.63 deg. C drop which is tied (with January 1997) for the 2nd largest 2-month drop in the 497-month satellite record. The largest 2-month drop was -0.77 deg. C from December 1987 to February 1988.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade (but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
The post Global Temps Drop Back A Bit appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 1, 2020 at 11:08AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--NOAA Satellite records second largest 2-month temperature drop in history

In April , 2020 , the Northern Hemisphere extratropics experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record .
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature ( LT ) anomaly for April , 2020 was +0.38 deg .
C , down from the March , 2020 value of +0.48 deg .
C. The Northern Hemisphere extratropical temperature anomaly fell from +1.04 deg .
C to 0.41 deg .
C from February to April , a 0.63 deg .
C drop which is tied ( with January 1997 ) for the 2nd largest 2-month drop in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2-month drop was -0.77 deg .
C from December 1987 to February 1988 .
The linear warming trend since January , 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade ( but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans , and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land ) .
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year ( 1981-2010 ) average for the last 16 months are : The UAH LT global gridpoint anomaly image for April , 2020 should be available within the next week here .
The global and regional monthly anomalies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be available in the next few days at the following locations :

In April, 2020, the Northern Hemisphere extratropics experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2020 was +0.38 deg. C, down from the March, 2020 value of +0.48 deg. C.
The Northern Hemisphere extratropical temperature anomaly fell from +1.04 deg. C to 0.41 deg. C from February to April, a 0.63 deg. C drop which is tied (with January 1997) for the 2nd largest 2-month drop in the 497-month satellite record. The largest 2-month drop was -0.77 deg. C from December 1987 to February 1988.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade (but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2019 01 +0.38 +0.35 +0.41 +0.36 +0.53 -0.15 +1.15 2019 02 +0.37 +0.47 +0.28 +0.43 -0.02 +1.04 +0.06 2019 03 +0.35 +0.44 +0.25 +0.41 -0.55 +0.97 +0.59 2019 04 +0.44 +0.38 +0.51 +0.54 +0.49 +0.92 +0.91 2019 05 +0.32 +0.29 +0.35 +0.40 -0.61 +0.98 +0.39 2019 06 +0.47 +0.42 +0.52 +0.64 -0.64 +0.91 +0.35 2019 07 +0.38 +0.33 +0.44 +0.45 +0.10 +0.33 +0.87 2019 08 +0.39 +0.38 +0.39 +0.42 +0.17 +0.44 +0.24 2019 09 +0.62 +0.64 +0.59 +0.60 +1.14 +0.75 +0.57 2019 10 +0.46 +0.64 +0.28 +0.31 -0.03 +0.99 +0.50 2019 11 +0.55 +0.56 +0.54 +0.55 +0.21 +0.56 +0.38 2019 12 +0.56 +0.61 +0.50 +0.58 +0.92 +0.66 +0.94 2020 01 +0.57 +0.60 +0.53 +0.62 +0.73 +0.12 +0.66 2020 02 +0.76 +0.96 +0.55 +0.76 +0.38 +0.02 +0.30 2020 03 +0.48 +0.61 +0.34 +0.63 +1.09 -0.72 +0.17 2020 04 +0.38 +0.43 +0.34 +0.45 -0.59 +1.03 +0.97
The UAH LT global gridpoint anomaly image for April, 2020 should be available within the next week here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
Source: Dr. Roy Spencer


Green Energy Insanity

Yesterday I drove a large circle around the Red Mountain Open Space in Colorado and Wyoming .
The area is @ @ @ @ @ single ( incredibly clean ) coal fired power plant , situated on a few dozen @ @ @ @ @ building massive windfarms and solar arrays , and destroying tens of thousands of acres with @ @ @ @ @ .

Yesterday I drove a large circle around the Red Mountain Open Space in Colorado and Wyoming. The area is currently being powered by by single (incredibly clean) coal fired power plant, situated on a few dozen acres. But they are building massive windfarms and solar arrays, and destroying tens of thousands of acres with industrial mess in the process.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-01--German Handelsblatt Commentary: Climate Protection Plans “Will Not Last” In Wake Of COVID-19 Crisis

A commentary posted by Thomas Sigmund at the online German business daily “ Handelsblatt ” here warns of the consequences of introducing a CO2 tax in Germany .
The German greens and socialists have been calling for ramping up climate protection efforts as a way to reboot the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 economic meltdown and that the country should not return to its “ old structures.
” The latest figures suggest Germany ’ s economy is starting its worst recession in its postwar history .
10.1 million people in Germany registered for reduced work hours by April @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of economists .
Sigmund writes that going even more green and putting “ further burdens ” on the economy are not the answer .
He writes that the climate protection plans drawn up earlier , in a time of full employment , “ will not last ” and that Chancellor Merkel “ has even greater concerns at the moment.
” Would only exacerbate already deep recession “ It is difficult to imagine that in this historic economic downturn further burdens will be imposed on companies , ” Sigmund comments .
“ Those who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ priced are exacerbating the recession and torpedoing the planned economic stimulus package.
” Sigmund adds : “ The shutdown gives us an idea of what industrialization means .
It ’ s now a matter of preventing mass unemployment and not making the social explosives even bigger.
” At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue , an informal preparation for the UN Climate Summit in autumn – this year done via video link – Chancellor Angela Merkel said climate protection would not be pushed off the political agenda in the EU , and would be “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health issues ” .

A commentary posted by Thomas Sigmund at the online German business daily “Handelsblatt” here warns of the consequences of introducing a CO2 tax in Germany.
The German greens and socialists have been calling for ramping up climate protection efforts as a way to reboot the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 economic meltdown and that the country should not return to its “old structures.”
The latest figures suggest Germany’s economy is starting its worst recession in its postwar history. 10.1 million people in Germany registered for reduced work hours by April 26, far beyond all the forecasts of economists.
Sigmund writes that going even more green and putting “further burdens” on the economy are not the answer. He writes that the climate protection plans drawn up earlier, in a time of full employment, “will not last” and that Chancellor Merkel “has even greater concerns at the moment.”
Would only exacerbate already deep recession
“It is difficult to imagine that in this historic economic downturn further burdens will be imposed on companies,” Sigmund comments. “Those who continue to demand that CO2 emissions be priced are exacerbating the recession and torpedoing the planned economic stimulus package.”
A matter of “preventing mass unemployment”
Sigmund adds: “The shutdown gives us an idea of what industrialization means. It’s now a matter of preventing mass unemployment and not making the social explosives even bigger.”
At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, an informal preparation for the UN Climate Summit in autumn – this year done via video link – Chancellor Angela Merkel said climate protection would not be pushed off the political agenda in the EU, and would be “just as much on the agenda as health issues”.
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May 1, 2020 at 10:07AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--Blackout Risk As Renewables Threaten To Destabilise National Grid

Britain could be at risk of blackouts as extremely low energy demand threatens to leave the electricity grid overwhelmed by @ @ @ @ @ asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to @ @ @ @ @ swamped on the May 8 bank holiday , when demand is expected to be especially @ @ @ @ @ request to Ofgem , it warned of “ a significant risk of disruption to security @ @ @ @ @ “ last resort ” powers to order plant disconnections were not granted .
National Grid @ @ @ @ @ demand balanced to ensure stable voltage and frequency on the network .
When there is @ @ @ @ @ become unstable , leading to blackouts such as that on August 9 last year when @ @ @ @ @ off .
The post Blackout Risk As Renewables Threaten To Destabilise National Grid appeared first @ @ @ @ @ Forum ( GWPF ) .

Britain could be at risk of blackouts as extremely low energy demand threatens to leave the electricity grid overwhelmed by surplus power.
National Grid asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to prevent the grid from being swamped on the May 8 bank holiday, when demand is expected to be especially low.
In its urgent request to Ofgem, it warned of “a significant risk of disruption to security of supply” if the “last resort” powers to order plant disconnections were not granted.
National Grid has to keep supply and demand balanced to ensure stable voltage and frequency on the network. When there is an imbalance the network can become unstable, leading to blackouts such as that on August 9 last year when a million homes were cut off.
The post Blackout Risk As Renewables Threaten To Destabilise National Grid appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 2, 2020 at 06:41AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--April 2020 Almost As Warm As 1865!

April 2020 Almost As Warm As 1865!

After a lot of hype about how April 2020 was going to be the warmest in Britain by a long way , it turns out that it was not even as hot as April 1865 , at least as far as the CET is concerned : As the graph at the top shows , ( and zoomed below ) , temperatures at no time of the month have been exceptionally high , mostly falling within the 95th percentiles : In other words , all we have had is “ weather ” , and of the type we have had plenty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has made the month much warmer than average is the persistence of this weather .
Indeed this has been the pattern all year , with daily temperatures consistently above average , but within the normal band .
Put another way , we have had the temperatures which we would have expected from the weather experienced .
In January and February , this weather was predominantly brought in from the Atlantic , courtesy of a strong jet stream .
Last month , until the last few days , the weather has been sunny , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ west .
The Met Office has already declared it as the sunniest on record .
At this time of year , the temperatures we have seen are pretty much guaranteed with such sunny weather .
This message is rammed home by a look at the daily maximum temperatures : Daily temperatures themselves have not been unusually high .
In fact , only two days last month exceeded 14C .
In comparison there were five last year .
No day exceeded 15C , an event quite common in the past .
Yet the month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1981-2010 average .
To repeat , at no time in the month were daily temperatures unusually high .
It was the almost total absence of colder than average days which forced the average up .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
After a lot of hype about how April 2020 was going to be the warmest in Britain by a long way, it turns out that it was not even as hot as April 1865, at least as far as the CET is concerned:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
As the graph at the top shows, (and zoomed below), temperatures at no time of the month have been exceptionally high, mostly falling within the 95th percentiles:
In other words, all we have had is “weather”, and of the type we have had plenty of times in the past.
What has made the month much warmer than average is the persistence of this weather. Indeed this has been the pattern all year, with daily temperatures consistently above average, but within the normal band.
Put another way, we have had the temperatures which we would have expected from the weather experienced.
In January and February, this weather was predominantly brought in from the Atlantic, courtesy of a strong jet stream.
Last month, until the last few days, the weather has been sunny, and again fetched up from the south west. The Met Office has already declared it as the sunniest on record. At this time of year, the temperatures we have seen are pretty much guaranteed with such sunny weather.
This message is rammed home by a look at the daily maximum temperatures:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
Daily temperatures themselves have not been unusually high. In fact, only two days last month exceeded 14C. In comparison there were five last year.
No day exceeded 15C, an event quite common in the past.
Yet the month as a whole was 3.6C above the 1981-2010 average.
To repeat, at no time in the month were daily temperatures unusually high. It was the almost total absence of colder than average days which forced the average up.
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May 2, 2020 at 05:27AM