iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Antitrust Protectionism: Domestic Independent Producers Charge “Dumping” against Oil Imports

History rhymes regarding the economics and political economy of the U.S. oil market .
Today , it is Harold Hamm and the 34-company trade group Domestic Energy Producers ’ Alliance ( DEPA ) .
Yesterday , it concerned a petition from 12 independent producers about unfair , below-cost oil sales by foreign companies ( see “ Oil and Those Slippery Anti-Dumping Laws ” New York Times , August 5 , 1999 , reprinted below ) .
Twenty-one years but the same issue : too much supply relative to demand to drive prices down .
On March 12th , Domestic Energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-dumping investigation and finding by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission .
In the face of $ 30 per barrel oil , DEPA ’ s press release stated : Referencing a letter from Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe to Secretary Ross on “ market manipulation ” by Saudi Arabia and Russia , DEPA ’ s press release continues : Most recently , after negative pricing became the talk of the nation , DEPA chair Harold Hamm requested an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) oil conducted by the CME Group ( formerly Chicago Mercantile Exchange ) The unprecedented collapse of transportation demand ( oil ’ s primary market ) from COVID-19 and government stay-at-home orders certainly offers a new precedent for both industry and public-policy reform .
But legislatively blocking oil imports would also disrupt oil exports from the U.S. , which means some independent producers win and others lose .
Trying to untangle ‘ good ’ imports ( such as from Canada and Mexico ) from ‘ bad ’ imports ( Saudi Arabia and Russia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fungibility of oil and trading patterns that can recolor the oil .
It is best that the Department of Commerce pass on this Section 232 request .
Regarding the methodology of WTI pricing for future delivery , that is a matter for the trading industry and its exchanges to consider outside of the governmental CFTC .
“ On Monday [ August 9 , 1999 ] , the Commerce Department is scheduled to weigh in on a trade dispute that a number of economists say could take the country ’ s fair-trade laws to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ article by Michael Weinstein began .
The weak public-interest rational was next explored : Oil is a commodity that is priced in a world market .
One producer , even if willing to absorb losses for a time by selling at below-market prices , could never expect to recoup its losses by raising prices above market levels in the future .
Other suppliers would strip away its customers .
Moreover , it is hard to make the case that dumping is occurring when one of the accused exporters , Saudi Arabia , spends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce a barrel of oil that sells for about $ 15 .
Economists point out other holes in the dumping charge .
The oil market is worldwide .
It does not matter whose oil goes where .
A tax slapped on four oil exporters will drive down imports from them .
But it will not drive down imports over all .
Other exporters will take up the slack .
The article then goes into the pro-domestic bias of U.S.-side anti-dumping law .
The article concludes by discussing the anti-consumer nature of the law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down to politics , not economics :

” … legislatively blocking oil imports would also disrupt oil exports from the U.S., which means some producers win and others lose. Trying to untangle ‘good’ imports (such as from Canada and Mexico) from ‘bad’ imports (Saudi Arabia and Russia) is all but futile given the fungibility of oil and trading patterns that can recolor the oil.”
History rhymes regarding the economics and political economy of the U.S. oil market. Today, it is Harold Hamm and the 34-company trade group Domestic Energy Producers’ Alliance (DEPA). Yesterday, it concerned a petition from 12 independent producers about unfair, below-cost oil sales by foreign companies (see “Oil and Those Slippery Anti-Dumping Laws” New York Times, August 5, 1999, reprinted below).
Twenty-one years but the same issue: too much supply relative to demand to drive prices down.
Complaints
On March 12th, Domestic Energy Producers’ Alliance announced support for an anti-dumping investigation and finding by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission. In the face of $30 per barrel oil, DEPA’s press release stated:
The petition will seek a determination that the recent actions taken by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others to unreasonably increase their supply of crude oil at prices below market value will result in material injury to the U.S. domestic crude oil industry.
A March 19th press release, Domestic Energy Producers Alliance Asks Commerce Secretary to “Step Up”, begins:
It is time for Secretary Wilbur Ross and the Department of Commerce to step up and launch a Section 232 investigation into Saudi Arabia and Russia dumping crude oil on the world market while also selling their crude below market value. This action was undertaken during the current Coronavirus Pandemic and resulted in a collapse of world crude oil prices.
Referencing a letter from Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe to Secretary Ross on “market manipulation” by Saudi Arabia and Russia, DEPA’s press release continues:
Section 232 and the Mandatory Import Program: Since 1955, Section 232 and its predecessor statute have been used on numerous occasions to address energy security concerns. Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan have all invoked Section 232 as a basis for restricting oil imports or for modifying existing restrictions thereon. Section 232 investigations are initiated to determine the effects of imports of any articles on U.S. national security.
Most recently, after negative pricing became the talk of the nation, DEPA chair Harold Hamm requested an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) into pricing for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil conducted by the CME Group (formerly Chicago Mercantile Exchange)
for possible market manipulation, failed systems or computer programming failures in the WTI prompt month May (20), and oil futures contracts on the CME. Continental has also lodged a complaint with CME. As shown below, the unprecedented, historical event of WTI crude oil trading at negative prices for the first time in history and the circumstances surrounding the trading shows the system failed, negatively impacting a significant part of the American economy. Not only did WTI crude futures trade negative, they settled at a bizarre minus $37.63.
Continuing,
The WTI prompt month May (20) contract price settled at $18.27 per barrel on April 17, 2020. On April 20, 2020, the WTI prompt month May (20) crude oil contracts closed down $55.90 or 306% at a minus $37.63 per barrel. Notably the CME chose to announce on April 8, 2020 that it had been testing plans to support the possibility of negative options such that if any month, WTI oil futures settle at a price between $8.00 and $11.00 a barrel that it could switch to a different pricing model that would allow for negative pricing.
Undeserved Problem, Wrong Response
The unprecedented collapse of transportation demand (oil’s primary market) from COVID-19 and government stay-at-home orders certainly offers a new precedent for both industry and public-policy reform. But legislatively blocking oil imports would also disrupt oil exports from the U.S., which means some independent producers win and others lose. Trying to untangle ‘good’ imports (such as from Canada and Mexico) from ‘bad’ imports (Saudi Arabia and Russia) is all but futile given the fungibility of oil and trading patterns that can recolor the oil.
It is best that the Department of Commerce pass on this Section 232 request.
Regarding the methodology of WTI pricing for future delivery, that is a matter for the trading industry and its exchanges to consider outside of the governmental CFTC.
Appendix: Section 232 Request: 1999
“Oil and Those Slippery Anti-Dumping Laws.” (August 5, 1999)
“On Monday [August 9, 1999], the Commerce Department is scheduled to weigh in on a trade dispute that a number of economists say could take the country’s fair-trade laws to new heights of absurdity,” the article by Michael Weinstein began.
Twelve independent oil producers that take nearly depleted wells from major oil companies and pump out the last remnants have accused Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Iraq and Venezuela of selling oil in the United States for less than what they spend to produce it. That is a violation of the trade rules that is known as dumping. The plaintiffs are calling for the United States to impose taxes of up to about 170 percent of the price of oil imported from these countries.
The weak public-interest rational was next explored:
Economists often mock anti-dumping laws because they punish foreigners for doing something kind for consumers: selling products at low prices. Dumping would be a genuine threat if foreigners could credibly drive American competitors out of business in order to take over an industry and raise prices later on. But such cases occur rarely, if ever. In the case of oil, the dumping accusation makes even less sense.
Continuing:
Oil is a commodity that is priced in a world market. One producer, even if willing to absorb losses for a time by selling at below-market prices, could never expect to recoup its losses by raising prices above market levels in the future. Other suppliers would strip away its customers. Moreover, it is hard to make the case that dumping is occurring when one of the accused exporters, Saudi Arabia, spends only about $1.50 or so to produce a barrel of oil that sells for about $15.
And more:
Economists
point out other holes in the dumping charge. The oil market is worldwide. It does not matter whose oil goes where. A tax slapped on four oil exporters will drive down imports from them. But it will not drive down imports over all. Other exporters will take up the slack.
Oil that Saudi Arabia would have sent to the United States will go instead to Europe; oil that Kuwait would have sent to Europe will come to the United States. Once the markets figure this out, oil supplies and prices will not change very much. ”Victory,” said Philip K. Verleger, an economist for the Brattle Group, a consulting firm in Cambridge, Mass., ”cannot help domestic producers.”
The article then goes into the pro-domestic bias of U.S.-side anti-dumping law.
For example, it is a common practice during times of economic slack for United States companies, including oil companies, to cut prices simply to generate enough cash to cover their operating costs even if they lose money over all. This is perfectly legal. But when foreign companies engage in similar price-cutting, even as a defensive move to meet prices charged by concerns in the United States, they end up violating anti-dumping laws.
And:
… under the law, the Commerce Department does not even have to establish that Saudi Arabia’s price falls below production costs. Instead, it need only find that Saudi Arabia charges less in the United States than it does somewhere else. The plaintiffs say that Saudi Arabia sets lower prices in this country than it does in Japan. Maybe so. But how that practice harms the United States, or proves that Saudi Arabia is selling oil below its cost, remains unexplained.
The article concludes by discussing the anti-consumer nature of the law and complaint and how it all comes down to politics, not economics:


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Meeting the terawatt challenge

Meeting the terawatt challenge

Robert Bryce ’ s latest book lays out a powerful case for treating electricity as a human right In his latest seminal book , A Question of Power : Electricity and the Wealth of Nations , Austin , Texas-based energy analyst and futurist Robert Bryce declares that “ electricity has become a human right.
” It ’ s not an “ endowed by our Creator ” human right , nor one enunciated by a constitution or UN charter .
It ’ s not akin to freedom of religion or speech .
It ’ s not some entitlement we get for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fundamental right of access to this all-empowering energy source ; a right for all human lives to be improved and blessed the way ours have been ; a right to never be denied access to sufficient , reliable , affordable electricity , on a phony claim that letting you have it would hurt the environment or climate .
Try to imagine your home , school , healthcare , business , community or world – your life – without this amazing energy source , and you will wholeheartedly agree with Bryce .
In chapter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Terawatt Challenge.
” It ’ s a term coined by the late Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley , who posited that , if we can provide sufficient electricity to all peoples of the world , we can largely eliminate the massive problems of poverty , polluted environments , unsafe water and food insecurity .
Bryce solemnly notes that our world is still far from that goal .
But we can get there .
Bryce traces the history of harnessed electricity , from Benjamin Franklin through Tesla , Edison and Westinghouse – to the much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Julian Sprague , who developed electric elevator motors ( enabling skyscrapers ) and the nation ’ s first electric rail system .
He illustrates how Franklin Roosevelt brought affordable electricity to rural America and oversaw construction of massive dams that provided cheap electricity to every corner of America .
It was FDR , Bryce notes , who in 1932 proclaimed that “ Electricity is no longer a luxury ; it is a definite necessity.
” Bryce then hits us with the horrific reality that roughly 3.3 billion people ( 45 % of humanity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where annual per capita electricity consumption is less than 1,000 kilowatt-hours per year ( kWh/yr ) – about what his home refrigerator uses .
These people barely survive in Unplugged countries .
Another 2.7 billion people ( 37 % ) scrape by in Low-Watt countries .
Only 19 % of all people on Planet Earth live in “ High-Watt ” nations ( more than 4,000 kWh/yr ) – the bottom threshold , says Dr. Alan Pasternak , the key dividing line below which countries can not improve their Human Development Index .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sufficiency for the Unplugged – and even the Low-Watt – nations is the lack of societal integrity , capital investment and affordable energy .
Yet , to ensure that all humanity can reach its full potential – to liberate women from endless drudgery , enabling them to develop their innate skills and talents – requires that the human right to electricity be recognized and made reality .
How do we reach this lofty but essential goal ?
An essential component of societal integrity is that governments enforce the rule of law .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factions share political and economic power .
In the poorest countries elites organize society for their own benefit at the expense of the vast mass of people .
Capital – and energy – are much easier to obtain in a free society .
To illustrate the magnitude of the gap between Unplugged and High-Watt nations , Bryce chronicles the meteoric rise of the Giant Five – Alphabet ( Google ) , Amazon , Apple , Facebook and Microsoft – each of which consumes more electricity each year than many entire countries .
Financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also have giant electricity appetites , as does the marijuana industry .
These businesses all know from experience the cost that electricity blackouts impose on them – and their customers .
Both weather and sabotage threaten the integrity of the electric grid , but the greater threat is the folly of those who believe that wind and solar alone can provide sufficient electric energy for a high-tech society , let alone the world ’ s billions .
Bryce chronicles how four factors – cost , storage , scale , and land use – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and power systems .
Electricity prices are soaring in countries like Germany , which panicked after Fukushima and began shuttering its nuclear power plants .
A third of German businesses , including automotive , see high electricity costs as threats to their viability , Bryce notes .
Rising electricity costs following enactment of Ontario ’ s Green Energy Act led to political defeat for the Liberal Party and the rescission of 758 renewable energy contracts .
Even in California , civil rights leaders have filed a lawsuit , decrying how the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low-income consumers ; it is now working its way through the legal system .
Bryce ’ s reporting suggests that the elitists who are pushing renewable energy – like despots in broken ( Low-Watt or Unplugged ) countries – ignore the poor and middle class and treat rural areas as if they were uninhabited or just irrelevant , as they pursue unattainable goals that heavily burden taxpayers while threatening electricity reliability .
Meeting California ’ s 80 % renewable mandate , for example , will require massive increases in costly electric storage because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electricity generation .
Green energy growth today can not even keep up with the annual increase in global electricity demand , let alone replace all conventional power .
But the final nail in the renewables coffin is land use .
Bryce cites multiple studies showing that an all-wind grid would mean turbine farms would cover a tenth of the nation ’ s total land .
Frustrated by the indifference of urban elites to the real-world impacts on human health and wildlife , rural counties are fighting wind farms with renewed vengeance .
Giant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vanishing ecosystems and “ clean ” energy that is actually highly polluting .
Mining for metals and minerals to build wind and solar systems would also be monumental .
Despite opposition by environmentalists , developing nations are rapidly turning to nuclear as a fuel for the future .
But , Bryce notes , it takes national commitments akin to the New Deal to provide both the political stability and financial backing to construct and operate large nuclear power plants economically .
High-Watt countries have imposed exorbitant permitting and regulatory costs on themselves and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , this greatly limits the prospects for nuclear energy .
Thanks to fracking , natural gas has become abundant and cheap .
It must be a major part of the world ’ s electricity generation future .
Yet governments in High-Watt countries are already banning fracking , blocking new pipelines , and even demanding that citizens mothball their gas-burning appliances .
Despite all the attacks on affordable , reliable fuels , Bryce is optimistic about the world ’ s ability and willingness to meet the Terawatt Challenge and provide electricity to a hungry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Indeed , in little over a century , a fifth of the world has gone from no electricity to High-Watt usage and another three-eighths is somewhat electrified – and their environments are better for it .
The humanist response to the Terawatt Challenge , Bryce asserts , is to empower the billions who are living in the dark to come into the bright light of modernity , progress , and better , longer , healthier lives .
This will require societal integrity , massive infusions of capital , and the right choices of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world will take time .
But it can – and must – be done .
Government regulation of these entities has become increasingly bloated and corrupt , Bryce notes .
We must significantly change our standards for both fossil fuel and nuclear power plants , to acknowledge technological improvements , the falsity of many environmentalist claims , and the fact that not having more of those power plants imposes enormous costs on lands , wildlife , human health and human rights .
Duggan Flanakin is director of policy research for the Committee For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ author of many articles on energy , climate change and environmentalism .

Robert Bryce’s latest book lays out a powerful case for treating electricity as a human right
Duggan Flanakin
In his latest seminal book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, Austin, Texas-based energy analyst and futurist Robert Bryce declares that “electricity has become a human right.”
It’s not an “endowed by our Creator” human right, nor one enunciated by a constitution or UN charter. It’s not akin to freedom of religion or speech. It’s not some entitlement we get for free. But it is definitely a fundamental right of access to this all-empowering energy source; a right for all human lives to be improved and blessed the way ours have been; a right to never be denied access to sufficient, reliable, affordable electricity, on a phony claim that letting you have it would hurt the environment or climate.
Try to imagine your home, school, healthcare, business, community or world – your life – without this amazing energy source, and you will wholeheartedly agree with Bryce.
In chapter 16, Bryce speaks of “the Terawatt Challenge.” It’s a term coined by the late Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley, who posited that, if we can provide sufficient electricity to all peoples of the world, we can largely eliminate the massive problems of poverty, polluted environments, unsafe water and food insecurity. Bryce solemnly notes that our world is still far from that goal. But we can get there.
Bryce traces the history of harnessed electricity, from Benjamin Franklin through Tesla, Edison and Westinghouse – to the much less well known but equally important Frank Julian Sprague, who developed electric elevator motors (enabling skyscrapers) and the nation’s first electric rail system. He illustrates how Franklin Roosevelt brought affordable electricity to rural America and oversaw construction of massive dams that provided cheap electricity to every corner of America. It was FDR, Bryce notes, who in 1932 proclaimed that “Electricity is no longer a luxury; it is a definite necessity.”
Bryce then hits us with the horrific reality that roughly 3.3 billion people (45% of humanity!) still live today in places where annual per capita electricity consumption is less than 1,000 kilowatt-hours per year (kWh/yr) – about what his home refrigerator uses. These people barely survive in Unplugged countries.
Another 2.7 billion people (37%) scrape by in Low-Watt countries. Only 19% of all people on Planet Earth live in “High-Watt” nations (more than 4,000 kWh/yr) – the bottom threshold, says Dr. Alan Pasternak, the key dividing line below which countries cannot improve their Human Development Index.
A major barrier, therefore, to electricity sufficiency for the Unplugged – and even the Low-Watt – nations is the lack of societal integrity, capital investment and affordable energy. Yet, to ensure that all humanity can reach its full potential – to liberate women from endless drudgery, enabling them to develop their innate skills and talents – requires that the human right to electricity be recognized and made reality.
How do we reach this lofty but essential goal? An essential component of societal integrity is that governments enforce the rule of law. The freest and wealthiest countries are those where factions share political and economic power. In the poorest countries elites organize society for their own benefit at the expense of the vast mass of people. Capital – and energy – are much easier to obtain in a free society.
To illustrate the magnitude of the gap between Unplugged and High-Watt nations, Bryce chronicles the meteoric rise of the Giant Five – Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft – each of which consumes more electricity each year than many entire countries. Financial services, from Visa to Bitcoin, also have giant electricity appetites, as does the marijuana industry.
These businesses all know from experience the cost that electricity blackouts impose on them – and their customers. Both weather and sabotage threaten the integrity of the electric grid, but the greater threat is the folly of those who believe that wind and solar alone can provide sufficient electric energy for a high-tech society, let alone the world’s billions.
Bryce chronicles how four factors – cost, storage, scale, and land use – prevent renewables from taking over our energy and power systems. Electricity prices are soaring in countries like Germany, which panicked after Fukushima and began shuttering its nuclear power plants. A third of German businesses, including automotive, see high electricity costs as threats to their viability, Bryce notes.
Rising electricity costs following enactment of Ontario’s Green Energy Act led to political defeat for the Liberal Party and the rescission of 758 renewable energy contracts. Even in California, civil rights leaders have filed a lawsuit, decrying how the state’s climate policies discriminate against minority and low-income consumers; it is now working its way through the legal system.
Bryce’s reporting suggests that the elitists who are pushing renewable energy – like despots in broken (Low-Watt or Unplugged) countries – ignore the poor and middle class and treat rural areas as if they were uninhabited or just irrelevant, as they pursue unattainable goals that heavily burden taxpayers while threatening electricity reliability.
Meeting California’s 80% renewable mandate, for example, will require massive increases in costly electric storage because of seasonal variation in wind and solar electricity generation. Green energy growth today cannot even keep up with the annual increase in global electricity demand, let alone replace all conventional power. But the final nail in the renewables coffin is land use.
Bryce cites multiple studies showing that an all-wind grid would mean turbine farms would cover a tenth of the nation’s total land. Frustrated by the indifference of urban elites to the real-world impacts on human health and wildlife, rural counties are fighting wind farms with renewed vengeance. Giant solar arrays also present a choice between vanishing ecosystems and “clean” energy that is actually highly polluting. Mining for metals and minerals to build wind and solar systems would also be monumental.
Despite opposition by environmentalists, developing nations are rapidly turning to nuclear as a fuel for the future. But, Bryce notes, it takes national commitments akin to the New Deal to provide both the political stability and financial backing to construct and operate large nuclear power plants economically. High-Watt countries have imposed exorbitant permitting and regulatory costs on themselves and poor countries; together with antinuclear zeal, this greatly limits the prospects for nuclear energy.
Thanks to fracking, natural gas has become abundant and cheap. It must be a major part of the world’s electricity generation future. Yet governments in High-Watt countries are already banning fracking, blocking new pipelines, and even demanding that citizens mothball their gas-burning appliances.
Despite all the attacks on affordable, reliable fuels, Bryce is optimistic about the world’s ability and willingness to meet the Terawatt Challenge and provide electricity to a hungry world, without wrecking the biosphere. Indeed, in little over a century, a fifth of the world has gone from no electricity to High-Watt usage and another three-eighths is somewhat electrified – and their environments are better for it.
The humanist response to the Terawatt Challenge, Bryce asserts, is to empower the billions who are living in the dark to come into the bright light of modernity, progress, and better, longer, healthier lives. This will require societal integrity, massive infusions of capital, and the right choices of fuels. Bryce admits that electrifying the world will take time. But it can – and must – be done.
Government regulation of these entities has become increasingly bloated and corrupt, Bryce notes. We must significantly change our standards for both fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, to acknowledge technological improvements, the falsity of many environmentalist claims, and the fact that not having more of those power plants imposes enormous costs on lands, wildlife, human health and human rights.
Duggan Flanakin is director of policy research for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of many articles on energy, climate change and environmentalism.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans

Michael Moore Presents : Planet of the Humans – a Documentary directed by Jeff Gibbs .
This presentation is a @ @ @ @ @ of the few I have found worth every minute .
It is a devastating exposé @ @ @ @ @ .
Even if you do not listen yourself please spread this link around .
Planet @ @ @ @ @ hauntingly beautiful production , not being a film buff I can ’ t grade the @ @ @ @ @ it is gold standard – see the shots of rusting windmills , the desolate ruins @ @ @ @ @ solar farm and the wasteland of tree stumps created to provide “ sustainable ” power @ @ @ @ @ Moore himself hardly appears .
And the interviews are pure gold !
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ major skeptic blogs in the world and turned them into a documentary .

Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans – a Documentary directed by Jeff Gibbs.
This presentation is a bit long but is one of the few I have found worth every minute. It is a devastating exposé of the Green Energy story. Even if you do not listen yourself please spread this link around.
Viv Forbes
Here is Rafe Champions review:
Planet of the Humans is a hauntingly beautiful production, not being a film buff I can’t grade the camera work but I suspect it is gold standard – see the shots of rusting windmills, the desolate ruins of a gigantic billion dollar solar farm and the wasteland of tree stumps created to provide “sustainable” power from “biomass”. Moore himself hardly appears. And the interviews are pure gold!
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/04/24/more-rave-reviews-for-michael-moore-and-the-planet-of-the-humans/
Here is Jo Nova’s comment:
It’s like someone read all the major skeptic blogs in the world and turned them into a documentary.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/the-moment-greens-realize-theyve-been-used-by-big-money-renewables-the-michael-moore-documentary/
via The Carbon Sense Coalition
https://ift.tt/2W9Ugaa
April 29, 2020 at 10:59PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--8 PM (ET) LIVE: Is the Coronavirus Lockdown the Future Environmentalists Want?

Live Video Zoom Webinar by The Heartland Institute and CFACT TODAY at 8 p.m .
ET ARLINGTON HEIGHTS , IL @ @ @ @ @ ) – Join Heartland Institute President James Taylor and Marc Morano , executive editor of @ @ @ @ @ as they discuss the social and economic impacts of the lockdown and how the left @ @ @ @ @ dress rehearsal for a Green New Deal .
CLICK HERE to register for the Zoom @ @ @ @ @ is a 36-year-old national nonprofit organization headquartered in Arlington Heights , Illinois .
Its mission @ @ @ @ @ , and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems .

Live Video Zoom Webinar by The Heartland Institute and CFACT
TODAY at 8 p.m. ET
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (April 30, 2020) – Join Heartland Institute President James Taylor and Marc Morano, executive editor of CFACT’s ClimateDepot.com, as they discuss the social and economic impacts of the lockdown and how the left is using it as a dress rehearsal for a Green New Deal.
CLICK HERE to register for the Zoom webinar.
The Heartland Institute is a 36-year-old national nonprofit organization headquartered in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Svalbard at end of April again has 6th-7th highest sea ice extent & a lot of very thick ice

For the second time this month , sea ice around Svalbard Norway was the 6th or 7th highest since records began in the late 1960s .
Pack ice at the end of April still surrounds Bear Island ( Bjørnøya ) at the southern end of the archipelago , which is a rare occurrence at this date .
These conditions document a recurrent pattern of high ice extent and especially extreme ice thickness in the Barents Sea since last summer .
Graphs provided by the Norwegian Ice Service only goes back to 1981 ( see the ‘ Min/Max ’ dotted line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ records go back to at least 1969 .
Extent at April 29th was sixth highest and on the 30th seventh highest – only slightly less than 1998 .
NIS archived ice charts availble online only go back to 1998 for April .
Below are the charts for April 29th and 30th : Thick sea ice in the Barents Sea north of Svalbard has been remarkable this year , as the chart below from Danish Arctic research shows : The icebreaker Polarstern , intentionally trapped in the ice pack , may well have trouble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off Svalbard in mid-May to exchange staff and replenish supplies .
The world ’ s most powerful nuclear-powered icebreakers can plow through ice up to 2.5m thick but most of the ice just north of Svalbard ( see map above ) is 3.0-3.5m thick .
The map below shows the Polarstern ‘ s position at 27 April 2020 : A commenter on Twitter posted a link to a blog post ( in Russian ) that contains remarkable photos of Russian icebreakers working through consolidated sea ice north of Novaya Zemlya in the Barents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offered this nugget : “ On the northern shores of Novaya Zemlya there are glaciers that throw off such gifts to sailors in the sea.
” These ‘ gifts ’ are icebergs breaking of the huge icefields of NW Novaya Zemlya ( see his/her photo below ) : Similar conditions are what stopped explorer William Barents and his crew in their tracks back in 1596 in late August and forced them to spend the winter and following spring in the Arctic .
See map below of the ice cap ( white ) on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ icebergs form ‘ ice fields ’ off the west coast , generated by the many glaciers ; these icebergs get consolidated into the pack ice north and northwest of the island .
Cape Spory Navolok is where Barents ’ ship was trapped – they made it through the ice fields on the west and north coasts only to get caught in the thick ice off the northeast coast : Barents Sea ice as a region is also high this spring ( see Masie graph below at 29 April 2020 ) : not as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher than 2016 .
Barents Sea ice supports the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation and has seen the largest decline in summer sea ice since 1979 of all 19 subpopulations – a much larger decline than even Western and Southern Hudson Bay ( Regehr et al .
2016 , see below ) .
In fact , Barents Sea polar bears are often considered one of the most vulnerable of all populations to declining sea ice blamed on global warming ( Amstrup et al .
2007 ; Regehr et al .
2016 ; Hamilton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data from Svalbard have not supported that conclusion ( Aars 2018 ; Aars et al .
2017 ; Crockford 2017 , 2019 , 2020 ) .
Below is the global ice extent at 29 April 2020 ( Day 120 ) : Graph below shows how global ice extent in 2020 and 2016 at 29 April compares to the long term average ( NSIDC , back to 1979 ) : Aars , J .
2018 .
Population changes in polar bears : protected , but quickly losing habitat .
Fram Forum Newsletter 2018 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ here ( 32 mb ) .
Aars , J. , Marques , T.A , Lone , K. , Anderson , M. , Wiig , Ø. , Fløystad , I.M.B.
, Hagen , S.B .
and Buckland , S.T .
2017 .
The number and distribution of polar bears in the western Barents Sea .
Polar Research 36:1 .
1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125 Amstrup , S.C. , Marcot , B.G .
& Douglas , D.C. 2007 .
Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century .
US Geological Survey .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ S.J .
2017 .
Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30 % decline in population size of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) .
PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017 .
Doi : 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access .
https : //peerj.com/preprints/2737/ Crockford , S.J .
2019 .
The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened .
Global Warming Policy Foundation , London .
Available in paperback and ebook formats .
Crockford , S.J .
2020 .
State of the Polar Bear Report 2019 .
Global Warming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PDF here .
Hamilton , S. and Derocher , A.E .
2019 .
Assessment of global polar bear abundance and vulnerability .
Animal Conservation 22 ( 1 ) :83-95. doi:10.1111/acv.12439 Regehr , E.V.
, Laidre , K.L , Akçakaya , H.R.
, Amstrup , S.C. , Atwood , T.C.
, Lunn , N.J. , Obbard , M. , Stern , H. , Thiemann , G.W.
, & Wiig , Ø .
2016 .
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in relation to projected sea-ice declines .
Biology Letters 12 : @ @ @ @

For the second time this month, sea ice around Svalbard Norway was the 6th or 7th highest since records began in the late 1960s. Pack ice at the end of April still surrounds Bear Island (Bjørnøya) at the southern end of the archipelago, which is a rare occurrence at this date. These conditions document a recurrent pattern of high ice extent and especially extreme ice thickness in the Barents Sea since last summer.
Graphs provided by the Norwegian Ice Service only goes back to 1981 (see the ‘Min/Max’ dotted line in the graph above) but their records go back to at least 1969. Extent at April 29th was sixth highest and on the 30th seventh highest – only slightly less than 1998. NIS archived ice charts availble online only go back to 1998 for April. Below are the charts for April 29th and 30th:
Thick sea ice in the Barents Sea north of Svalbard has been remarkable this year, as the chart below from Danish Arctic research shows:
The icebreaker Polarstern, intentionally trapped in the ice pack, may well have trouble making its rendezvous with two German icebreakers off Svalbard in mid-May to exchange staff and replenish supplies. The world’s most powerful nuclear-powered icebreakers can plow through ice up to 2.5m thick but most of the ice just north of Svalbard (see map above) is 3.0-3.5m thick. The map below shows the Polarstern‘s position at 27 April 2020:
A commenter on Twitter posted a link to a blog post (in Russian) that contains remarkable photos of Russian icebreakers working through consolidated sea ice north of Novaya Zemlya in the Barents Sea in early April. Google Translate offered this nugget: “On the northern shores of Novaya Zemlya there are glaciers that throw off such gifts to sailors in the sea.” These ‘gifts’ are icebergs breaking of the huge icefields of NW Novaya Zemlya (see his/her photo below):
Similar conditions are what stopped explorer William Barents and his crew in their tracks back in 1596 in late August and forced them to spend the winter and following spring in the Arctic. See map below of the ice cap (white) on northwest Novaya Zemlya from this paper: icebergs form ‘ice fields’ off the west coast, generated by the many glaciers; these icebergs get consolidated into the pack ice north and northwest of the island. Cape Spory Navolok is where Barents’ ship was trapped – they made it through the ice fields on the west and north coasts only to get caught in the thick ice off the northeast coast:
Barents Sea ice as a region is also high this spring (see Masie graph below at 29 April 2020): not as high as April 2018, but much higher than 2016.
Barents Sea ice supports the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation and has seen the largest decline in summer sea ice since 1979 of all 19 subpopulations – a much larger decline than even Western and Southern Hudson Bay (Regehr et al. 2016, see below).
In fact, Barents Sea polar bears are often considered one of the most vulnerable of all populations to declining sea ice blamed on global warming (Amstrup et al. 2007; Regehr et al. 2016; Hamilton and Derocher 2019), yet recent data from Svalbard have not supported that conclusion (Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017; Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020).
Below is the global ice extent at 29 April 2020 (Day 120):
Graph below shows how global ice extent in 2020 and 2016 at 29 April compares to the long term average (NSIDC, back to 1979):
References
Aars, J. 2018. Population changes in polar bears: protected, but quickly losing habitat. Fram Forum Newsletter 2018. Fram Centre, Tromso. Download pdf here (32 mb).
Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, K., Anderson, M., Wiig, Ø., Fløystad, I.M.B., Hagen, S.B. and Buckland, S.T. 2017. The number and distribution of polar bears in the western Barents Sea. Polar Research 36:1. 1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125
Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here
Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/
Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in paperback and ebook formats.
Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. PDF here.
Hamilton, S. and Derocher, A.E. 2019. Assessment of global polar bear abundance and vulnerability. Animal Conservation 22(1):83-95. doi:10.1111/acv.12439
Regehr, E.V., Laidre, K.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556
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April 30, 2020 at 06:09PM


Jimbob Does Coronavirus

Humor is important as a means of poking holes in narratives that assert beliefs contrary to reality .
Jimbob has @ @ @ @ @ of climate change , as well as other distorted ideas comprising the “ woke ” @ @ @ @ @ the believer bubble will not be affected , but the important audience are those ignorant @ @ @ @ @ called “ progressive , post-modern agenda.
” A previous post Best Cartoon Madebyjimbob provided an @ @ @ @ @ along with his point of view .
This post presents his more recent images related @ @ @ @ @

Humor is important as a means of poking holes in narratives that assert beliefs contrary to reality. Jimbob has become a force skewering notions of climate change, as well as other distorted ideas comprising the “woke” PC canon. Those inside the believer bubble will not be affected, but the important audience are those ignorant or agnostic about the so called “progressive, post-modern agenda.”
A previous post Best Cartoon Madebyjimbob provided an introduction to this artist, along with his point of view. This post presents his more recent images related to present pandemic foibles.
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April 30, 2020 at 04:14PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Ministerial math, scientific skepticism and the Chinese virus

Of government ministers it may be said that they seldom know how many beans make five .
Frankly , numeracy is seldom their forte .
Therefore , HM Government , for instance , has pietistically proclaimed time and time again at its daily press conferences that it will act solely on the basis of what the scientists say .
This species of abject abdication to the priests of the machine has long been evident in governments ’ approach to the climate question .
They have been readily fooled by totalitarian academics pushing an agenda that is both ideologically attractive and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that governments are habituated to the notion that man with beard wearing white coat with leaky Biros sticking out of front pocket him always right , yes indeed , goodness gracious me , they are easily led by the nose .
So far , climate skeptics have generally failed to convince governments that they should not be so credulous , nor so completely in thrall to currently-fashionable academic political opinion masquerading as “ scientific consensus ” .
In Sweden , this childlike faith in scientists has been taken to the extreme .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in how to handle pandemics .
The key decisions have been wholly delegated to the public health agency , which has decided that , though some precautions are to be taken , there will be no lockdown .
For those of us who would like the lockdowns to end in those countries where it is clear from our daily graphs that they are no longer needed , it would be welcome news if the Swedish experiment were to succeed .
The next few weeks will make or break the no-lockdown policy , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were later than in most of the worst-affected European countries .
One consequence of innumerate governments ’ abdication to radicalized scientists is that when the scientists can not agree among themselves governments do not take decisions in time .
In Britain , Ministers dithered for a fatal month after the first cases arrived .
In the end , the Prime Minister took a command decision to lock the country down , based on a model from Imperial College , which predicted that in the absence of a lockdown some 500,000 of Her Majesty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Already , more than 26,000 have been killed , for the Government is at last including the virus-related deaths outside as well as inside hospitals in its daily counts .
On current trends , Britain will soon have the highest death toll in Europe .
How , then , to address the recurring problem of innumeracy among the classe politique ?
This question will become important as governments decide what to do about lockdowns .
The State of Georgia has taken the bull by the horns and has ended the lockdown altogether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision – which went too far even for Mr Trump – will provide a useful point of comparison , just as Sweden does for Scandinavia ( compared with which it is doing badly ) and for Europe more widely ( compared with which it is doing well ) .
Mean population density per square mile in Georgia is only 150 people , but the state has some 70 cities or towns with populations higher than the 1800 per square mile in Stockholm .
Most governments will keep control measures in place until the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below zero .
But then what ?
Here is a simple piece Ministerial math : a neat device that allows Ministers to make a rough but not altogether valueless back-of-the-envelope estimate of how many deaths the Chinese virus will have caused in total by the end of the pandemic .
This useful trick arises from the fact that , where the cumulative mortality to day d – 1 is M , and if the mortality m on day d is declining by 1 / n , and if that rate of decline continues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the end of the pandemic will simply be the sum of the cumulative mortality M to day d – 1 and the product of m and n. Formally , Thus , if in the United States there were 2400 deaths on day d , and if each day thereafter the death toll were to decline by one-tenth , and if that rate of decline were to continue , there would be 24,000 deaths from day d to the end of the pandemic , in addition to the previous deaths M = 60,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a total of 84,000 deaths .
Of course , one hopes that any rate of decline in deaths ( it is not yet established in the U.S. ) will itself decline .
Therefore , it is helpful to give Ministers a ready-reckoner table showing how many deaths will occur from day d to the end of the pandemic for various values of n : Then Ministers can apply the test to the daily death toll , averaged over 7 days using ( 2 ) .
Some statisticians prefer three-day averaging .
Either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what the mean rate of decline r is , together with the day ’ s mortality r , and can then look up the appropriate multiplier n , multiply the day ’ s death toll by it , add the cumulative mortality M up to the previous day , and Bob ’ s your uncle .
Take Italy .
The most recent daily death toll was 323 .
Seven days previously it was 437 .
Therefore , the rate of decline was ( 323/437 ) 1/7 , or 0.96 .
If that rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ somewhere between 20 and 30 times 323 deaths .
Call it 24 times .
Therefore , there would be 24 x 323 , or 7750 deaths , still to come , plus the 27,350 deaths that have already occurred , bringing the final total to about 35,000 .
That figure will be a maximum if the rate of decline falls below 0.96 , as it almost certainly will .
None of this works unless the daily rate of change in deaths is a decline .
In the United States , that is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it soon will be , since the daily rate of change in active cases has reached zero for the first time .
Fig .
1 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 29 , 2020 .
Fig .
2 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 26 , 2020 .
Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here .

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Of government ministers it may be said that they seldom know how many beans make five. Frankly, numeracy is seldom their forte. Therefore, HM Government, for instance, has pietistically proclaimed time and time again at its daily press conferences that it will act solely on the basis of what the scientists say.
This species of abject abdication to the priests of the machine has long been evident in governments’ approach to the climate question. They have been readily fooled by totalitarian academics pushing an agenda that is both ideologically attractive and financially profitable to the academics.
Now that governments are habituated to the notion that man with beard wearing white coat with leaky Biros sticking out of front pocket him always right, yes indeed, goodness gracious me, they are easily led by the nose. So far, climate skeptics have generally failed to convince governments that they should not be so credulous, nor so completely in thrall to currently-fashionable academic political opinion masquerading as “scientific consensus”.
In Sweden, this childlike faith in scientists has been taken to the extreme. By law, ministers are denied any say in how to handle pandemics. The key decisions have been wholly delegated to the public health agency, which has decided that, though some precautions are to be taken, there will be no lockdown.
For those of us who would like the lockdowns to end in those countries where it is clear from our daily graphs that they are no longer needed, it would be welcome news if the Swedish experiment were to succeed. The next few weeks will make or break the no-lockdown policy, for Sweden’s first cases of infection were later than in most of the worst-affected European countries.
One consequence of innumerate governments’ abdication to radicalized scientists is that when the scientists cannot agree among themselves governments do not take decisions in time. In Britain, Ministers dithered for a fatal month after the first cases arrived. In the end, the Prime Minister took a command decision to lock the country down, based on a model from Imperial College, which predicted that in the absence of a lockdown some 500,000 of Her Majesty’s subjects might have been killed.
Already, more than 26,000 have been killed, for the Government is at last including the virus-related deaths outside as well as inside hospitals in its daily counts. On current trends, Britain will soon have the highest death toll in Europe.
How, then, to address the recurring problem of innumeracy among the classe politique? This question will become important as governments decide what to do about lockdowns.
The State of Georgia has taken the bull by the horns and has ended the lockdown altogether. For the United States, that decision – which went too far even for Mr Trump – will provide a useful point of comparison, just as Sweden does for Scandinavia (compared with which it is doing badly) and for Europe more widely (compared with which it is doing well).
Mean population density per square mile in Georgia is only 150 people, but the state has some 70 cities or towns with populations higher than the 1800 per square mile in Stockholm.
Most governments will keep control measures in place until the daily growth-rate in active cases has fallen below zero. But then what? Here is a simple piece Ministerial math: a neat device that allows Ministers to make a rough but not altogether valueless back-of-the-envelope estimate of how many deaths the Chinese virus will have caused in total by the end of the pandemic.
This useful trick arises from the fact that, where the cumulative mortality to day d – 1 is M, and if the mortality m on day d is declining by 1 / n, and if that rate of decline continues ad infinitum, total eventual deaths T to the end of the pandemic will simply be the sum of the cumulative mortality M to day d – 1 and the product of m and n. Formally,
Thus, if in the United States there were 2400 deaths on day d, and if each day thereafter the death toll were to decline by one-tenth, and if that rate of decline were to continue, there would be 24,000 deaths from day d to the end of the pandemic, in addition to the previous deaths M = 60,000 that had occurred before day d, for a total of 84,000 deaths.
Of course, one hopes that any rate of decline in deaths (it is not yet established in the U.S.) will itself decline. Therefore, it is helpful to give Ministers a ready-reckoner table showing how many deaths will occur from day d to the end of the pandemic for various values of n:
Daily decline by 1/100 1/50 1/40 1/30 1/20 1/15 1/12 1/10 Rate of decline r 0.99 0.98 0.975 0.967 0.95 0.933 0.917 0.9 Multiplier n 100 50 40 30 20 15 12 10 Daily decline by 1/9 1/8 1/7 1/6 1/5 1/4 1/3 1/2 Rate of decline r 0.889 0.875 0.857 0.833 0.8 0.75 0.667 0.5 Multiplier n 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Then Ministers can apply the test to the daily death toll, averaged over 7 days using (2). Some statisticians prefer three-day averaging. Either way, Ministers can ask the statisticians what the mean rate of decline r d is, together with the day’s mortality r d , and can then look up the appropriate multiplier n, multiply the day’s death toll by it, add the cumulative mortality M up to the previous day, and Bob’s your uncle.
Take Italy. The most recent daily death toll was 323. Seven days previously it was 437. Therefore, the rate of decline was (323/437)1/7, or 0.96. If that rate were to continue, there would be somewhere between 20 and 30 times 323 deaths. Call it 24 times. Therefore, there would be 24 x 323, or 7750 deaths, still to come, plus the 27,350 deaths that have already occurred, bringing the final total to about 35,000. That figure will be a maximum if the rate of decline falls below 0.96, as it almost certainly will.
None of this works unless the daily rate of change in deaths is a decline. In the United States, that is not yet the case, but one hopes it soon will be, since the daily rate of change in active cases has reached zero for the first time.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 29, 2020.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 26, 2020.
Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--COVID discussion thread V

COVID discussion thread V

The coronavirus pandemic is steeped in uncertainty , confusion , shifting information , and muddled messages .
Here ’ s @ @ @ @ @ it all , from @ edyong209 [ link ] New paper using Chinese data confirms @ @ @ @ @ for children compared to adults which in turn is still lower than the elderly .
@ @ @ @ @ For the three decades leading up to the # COVIDー19 pandemic , New York ably @ @ @ @ @ to increase life expectancy for its most vulnerable residents , saving hundreds of thousands of @ @ @ @ @ To hold China accountable for dealyed COVID action , target the ‘ Great Firewall ’ @ @ @ @ @ s no such thing as just ‘ following the science ’ – advice is political @ @ @ @ @ is no absolute truth ’ : an infectious disease expert on Covid-19 , misinformation and @ @ @ @ @ ] In public health , as in climate change , scientists who express different views @ @ @ @ @ , not demonized https : //statnews.com/2020/04/27/hear-scientists-different-views-covid-19-dont-attack-them/…

by Judith Curry
A round up of recent interesting articles
The coronavirus pandemic is steeped in uncertainty, confusion, shifting information, and muddled messages. Here’s a guide to cutting through it all, from @edyong209 [link]
Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections [link]
New paper using Chinese data confirms lower attack rate of COVID19 for children compared to adults which in turn is still lower than the elderly. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/28/science.abb8001?rss=1
Lancet: results of remdesivar trial [link]
Fauci: second wave of coronavirus inevitable [ link . Second wave of deadly virus is very unlikely [link] . Dr. Fauci backed controversial Wuhan lab with millions of U.S. dollars for risky coronavirus research [ link . COVID-19 outcomes, from data on 16749 patients [ link . What is the infection-fatality rate of COVID19? [ link . We still don’t know how the coronavirus is killing us [ link
Economics and policy
For the three decades leading up to the #COVIDー19 pandemic, New York ably used its density and wealth to increase life expectancy for its most vulnerable residents, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. http://bit.ly/2S1BReg
To hold China accountable for dealyed COVID action, target the ‘Great Firewall’ [link]
There’s no such thing as just ‘following the science’ – advice is political [link]
Sociology
‘There is no absolute truth’: an infectious disease expert on Covid-19, misinformation and ‘bullshit’ [link]
In public health, as in climate change, scientists who express different views on Covid-19 should be heard, not demonized https://statnews.com/2020/04/27/hear-scientists-different-views-covid-19-dont-attack-them/…
As COVID-19 forces conferences online, scientists discover upsides of virtual format [link]
Science in inaction [link]
A nation on pause: coronavirus in India [link]
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April 30, 2020 at 03:32PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Indonesian study: Low Vitamin D patients ten times more likely to die of Coronavirus

Wow .
If this is confirmed , Coronavirus is almost a disease of Vitamin D deficiency Hot off the press : A new Indonesian study of 780 people with Coronavirus found that people with a Vitamin D deficiency were much more likely to die.We discussed Vitamin D at length a few weeks ago , so this was not unexpected but the reported risks are remarkable .
Of those who died most ( 85 % ) had a co-morbidity , the real surprise is that even more than that , 96 % had low Vitamin D levels .
Of those who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D levels .
Only 7 % of survivors had low or deficient Vitamin D. Vitamin D deficicency was very common among these Indonensian patients .
Half of those measured did not have enough Vitamin D in their blood .
Of those that did , 96 % did not succumb , and only 4 % “ expired ” .
Vitamin D looks like a good protector .
After controlling for known risk like being old , or male or having high blood pressure , a Vitamin D level described as deficient ( less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fold greater risk of death .
These are quite extraordinary numbers .
In most medical studies an OR ( odds ratio ) as low as 1.3 is [ … ]

Wow. If this is confirmed, Coronavirus is almost a disease of Vitamin D deficiency
Hot off the press: A new Indonesian study of 780 people with Coronavirus found that people with a Vitamin D deficiency were much more likely to die.We discussed Vitamin D at length a few weeks ago, so this was not unexpected but the reported risks are remarkable.
Of those who died most (85%) had a co-morbidity, the real surprise is that even more than that, 96% had low Vitamin D levels. Of those who survived, most people had normal Vitamin D levels. Only 7% of survivors had low or deficient Vitamin D.
Vitamin D deficicency was very common among these Indonensian patients. Half of those measured did not have enough Vitamin D in their blood. Of those that did, 96% did not succumb, and only 4% “expired”. Vitamin D looks like a good protector.
After controlling for known risk like being old, or male or having high blood pressure, a Vitamin D level described as deficient (less than 20ng/ml) was associated with a 10 fold greater risk of death. These are quite extraordinary numbers. In most medical studies an OR (odds ratio) as low as 1.3 is […]
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April 30, 2020 at 02:49PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Canada’s Cool-Headed Antidote To Hot Arctic Alarmism

A new government report by Canada ’ s Department of Fisheries and Oceans is a welcome cool-headed antidote to the sensational portrayal of the Arctic as a melting disaster that ’ s killing polar bears .
We now leave this southern coronavirus hell to take you way , way up North to the Canadian Arctic where , according to a news report , “ the frozen North is gone forever ” and the “ top of the world is turning upside down.
” The sensational language was allegedly based on a new research report , Canada ’ s Oceans Now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Earth Day last week by Bernadette Jordan , federal Minister of Fisheries and Oceans .
The report received little attention outside of a Canadian Press story that tended to do what most media stories do when appraising material linked to climate change .
Small research factoids are routinely morphed into asteroids of climate destruction .
For example , the news report on the disappearing frozen North claimed that Arctic Ocean waters are “ 33 per cent less salty than in 2003 and about 30 per cent more acidic — enough to dissolve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sounds bad .
But it turns out that the body of water that is 33 per cent less salty is part of the Beaufort Gyre where water circulates in a giant spin cycle and salt levels fluctuate .
For many years it moves clockwise and for many years it moves counterclockwise .
Andrea Niemi , a federal research scientist and a lead author of the new Arctic Ecosystems report , said in an interview the low-salt reference “ does not apply to the entire Canadian Arctic.
” Nor is it likely permanent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ over hundreds of kilometres , spurred by atmospheric shifts , fresh water from rivers and melting ice dilutes the salt content .
At some point , the great gyre is expected to change directions and the salt content will again increase .
Will the salt content return to what it was in 2003 is not known , but it is clear that the 33 per cent decline in Arctic Ocean salinity has not happened and therefore is not a sign of imminent Arctic desalination .
Another aspect of the news report suggested that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycle of ringed seals , making them open to polar bear attack .
Niemi said the ringed seal risk is based on a case study in Hudson Bay , and does not apply across the Arctic .
As for polar bears , Niemi notes that while polar bear populations are struggling in Hudson Bay , “ in other parts of the Canadian Arctic they are doing OK. ” Then there ’ s the attack of the Pacific salmon .
Due to warming , warmer-water species are moving in , including Pacific salmon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hauling in salmon instead of char .
A large salmon influx occurred in 2019 .
It seems unlikely , however , that the arrival of salmon as a food source constitutes a climate crisis for the local population .
The same question can be asked about much of the changes taking place in Canada ’ s Arctic .
Change appears to be happening as ice melts .
But does the change recorded so far amount to turning the Arctic upside down ?
Do the changes signal a looming catastrophe ?
Niemi said during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intended to be a forecasting document .
Instead , through 190 pages based on the work of more than 50 federal researchers , the report cautiously portrays the vast Arctic region of Canada as something of an unknown planet ready to be discovered .
The 30-page public summary of the report , Canada ’ s Oceans New : Arctic Ecosystems , repeatedly notes that scientific understanding of the region is limited and “ filled with major gaps ” that need to be filled .
Rather than portray the Canadian Arctic as a collapsing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the report serves as a basis for serious science and social research into a dynamic non-static ever-changing environment .
“ The Arctic , on a global scale , is changing but the type and speed of changes are not the same in all locations .
Understanding the state of Canadian Arctic ecosystems is necessary to explain and manage present conditions and future changes .
The state of an ecosystem describes conditions in a specific location — both the normal conditions and how they change over time.
” The public report is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a collapsing frozen , pristine environmental stereotype .
The fact is that little is known about the Canadian Arctic and there is much to learn .
“ There has been little long-term , sustained scientific monitoring of ocean conditions and species in Canada ’ s Arctic .
As a result , scientific evidence is limited to identify , explain and predict ecosystem changes across the Canadian Arctic.
” The report is a welcome cool-headed antidote to the sensational portrayal of the Arctic as a melting disaster that ’ s killing polar bears .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ the Arctic is characterized as being very different from year to year .
Those differences are normal .
I think that ’ s something important in scientific and Inuit knowledge.
” The post Canada ’ s Cool-Headed Antidote To Hot Arctic Alarmism appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

A new government report by Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans is a welcome cool-headed antidote to the sensational portrayal of the Arctic as a melting disaster that’s killing polar bears.
We now leave this southern coronavirus hell to take you way, way up North to the Canadian Arctic where, according to a news report, “the frozen North is gone forever” and the “top of the world is turning upside down.”
The sensational language was allegedly based on a new research report, Canada’s Oceans Now: Arctic Ecosystems, 2019, released on Earth Day last week by Bernadette Jordan, federal Minister of Fisheries and Oceans.
The report received little attention outside of a Canadian Press story that tended to do what most media stories do when appraising material linked to climate change. Small research factoids are routinely morphed into asteroids of climate destruction.
For example, the news report on the disappearing frozen North claimed that Arctic Ocean waters are “33 per cent less salty than in 2003 and about 30 per cent more acidic — enough to dissolve the shells of some small molluscs.”
Sounds bad. But it turns out that the body of water that is 33 per cent less salty is part of the Beaufort Gyre where water circulates in a giant spin cycle and salt levels fluctuate. For many years it moves clockwise and for many years it moves counterclockwise.
Andrea Niemi, a federal research scientist and a lead author of the new Arctic Ecosystems report, said in an interview the low-salt reference “does not apply to the entire Canadian Arctic.”
Nor is it likely permanent. As the water spins in one direction over hundreds of kilometres, spurred by atmospheric shifts, fresh water from rivers and melting ice dilutes the salt content. At some point, the great gyre is expected to change directions and the salt content will again increase.
Will the salt content return to what it was in 2003 is not known, but it is clear that the 33 per cent decline in Arctic Ocean salinity has not happened and therefore is not a sign of imminent Arctic desalination.
Another aspect of the news report suggested that melting ice is interfering with the moulting cycle of ringed seals, making them open to polar bear attack. Niemi said the ringed seal risk is based on a case study in Hudson Bay, and does not apply across the Arctic. As for polar bears, Niemi notes that while polar bear populations are struggling in Hudson Bay, “in other parts of the Canadian Arctic they are doing OK.”
Then there’s the attack of the Pacific salmon. Due to warming, warmer-water species are moving in, including Pacific salmon, to the point where fishing communities are hauling in salmon instead of char. A large salmon influx occurred in 2019. It seems unlikely, however, that the arrival of salmon as a food source constitutes a climate crisis for the local population.
The same question can be asked about much of the changes taking place in Canada’s Arctic. Change appears to be happening as ice melts. But does the change recorded so far amount to turning the Arctic upside down? Do the changes signal a looming catastrophe?
Niemi said during my interview that the report was not intended to be a forecasting document. Instead, through 190 pages based on the work of more than 50 federal researchers, the report cautiously portrays the vast Arctic region of Canada as something of an unknown planet ready to be discovered.
The 30-page public summary of the report, Canada’s Oceans New: Arctic Ecosystems, repeatedly notes that scientific understanding of the region is limited and “filled with major gaps” that need to be filled.
Rather than portray the Canadian Arctic as a collapsing ecosystem facing climate disaster and species extinction, the report serves as a basis for serious science and social research into a dynamic non-static ever-changing environment. “The Arctic, on a global scale, is changing but the type and speed of changes are not the same in all locations. Understanding the state of Canadian Arctic ecosystems is necessary to explain and manage present conditions and future changes. The state of an ecosystem describes conditions in a specific location — both the normal conditions and how they change over time.”
The public report is not an alarmist call for action to save a collapsing frozen, pristine environmental stereotype. The fact is that little is known about the Canadian Arctic and there is much to learn. “There has been little long-term, sustained scientific monitoring of ocean conditions and species in Canada’s Arctic. As a result, scientific evidence is limited to identify, explain and predict ecosystem changes across the Canadian Arctic.”
The report is a welcome cool-headed antidote to the sensational portrayal of the Arctic as a melting disaster that’s killing polar bears. As Niemi put it during our interview, “the Arctic is characterized as being very different from year to year. Those differences are normal. I think that’s something important in scientific and Inuit knowledge.”
The post Canada’s Cool-Headed Antidote To Hot Arctic Alarmism appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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April 30, 2020 at 12:19PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models

PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy .
Both @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s that old “ uncertainty monster ” again .
Climate models and @ @ @ @ @ used to predict the future , and both have been used to form public policy @ @ @ @ @ Anthony Watts and UAH climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer , we examine the common denominator of @ @ @ @ @ We also look at why Carbon Dioxide hasn ’ t been visibly reduced due to @ @ @ @

PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.
Climate models and coronavirus models have both been used to predict the future, and both have been used to form public policy. In this podcast between Anthony Watts and UAH climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer, we examine the common denominator of failure they both share. We also look at why Carbon Dioxide hasn’t been visibly reduced due to the economic shutdowns.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--SSTs Flat Start 2020 March Update

SSTs Flat Start 2020 March Update

The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world ’ s sea surface temperatures ( SST ) , for several reasons : • The ocean covers 71 % of the globe and drives average temperatures ; • SSTs have a constant water content , ( unlike air temperatures ) , so give a better reading of heat content variations ; • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years .
HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets , and so the temperature story here comes from that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end .
The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through March 2020 .
A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016 , joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016 .
In 2019 all regions had been converging to reach nearly the same value in April .
Then NH rose exceptionally by almost 0.5C over the four summer months , in August exceeding previous summer peaks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last 4 months of 2019 that warm NH pulse reversed sharply .
Now in 2020 the first 3 months show little change from last December , particularly in the NH and Tropics .
Meanwhile the SH bumped upward in March , causing the global anomaly to rise as well , slightly lower than the peak in August 2019 .
Note that higher temps in 2015 and 2016 were first of all due to a sharp rise in Tropical SST , beginning in March 2015 , peaking in January 2016 , and steadily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secondly , the Northern Hemisphere added three bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming , with peaks in August of each year .
A fourth NH bump was lower and peaked in September 2018 .
As noted above , a fifth peak in August 2019 exceeded the four previous upward bumps in NH .
And as before , note that the global release of heat was not dramatic , due to the Southern Hemisphere offsetting the Northern one .
The major difference between now and 2015-2016 is the absence of Tropical warming driving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ noisy , but the density is needed to see the seasonal patterns in the oceanic fluctuations .
Previous posts focused on the rise and fall of the last El Nino starting in 2015 .
This post adds a longer view , encompassing the significant 1998 El Nino and since .
The color schemes are retained for Global , Tropics , NH and SH anomalies .
Despite the longer time frame , I have kept the monthly data ( rather than yearly averages ) because of interesting shifts between January and July .
1995 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting point prior to the first El Nino .
The sharp Tropical rise peaking in 1998 is dominant in the record , starting Jan. ’ 97 to pull up SSTs uniformly before returning to the same level Jan. ’ 99 .
For the next 2 years , the Tropics stayed down , and the world ’ s oceans held steady around 0.2C above 1961 to 1990 average .
Then comes a steady rise over two years to a lesser peak Jan. 2003 , but again uniformly pulling all oceans up around 0.4C .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ more hemispheric divergence than before .
Over the 4 years until Jan 2007 , the Tropics go through ups and downs , NH a series of ups and SH mostly downs .
As a result the Global average fluctuates around that same 0.4C , which also turns out to be the average for the entire record since 1995 .
2007 stands out with a sharp drop in temperatures so that Jan.08 matches the low in Jan. ’ 99 , but starting from a lower high .
The oceans all decline as well , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now again a different pattern appears .
The Tropics cool sharply to Jan 11 , then rise steadily for 4 years to Jan 15 , at which point the most recent major El Nino takes off .
But this time in contrast to ’ 97- ’ 99 , the Northern Hemisphere produces peaks every summer pulling up the Global average .
In fact , these NH peaks appear every July starting in 2003 , growing stronger to produce 3 massive highs in 2014 , 15 and 16 .
NH July 2017 was only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peak still lower in Sept. 2018 .
The highest summer NH peak came in 2019 , only this time the Tropics and SH are offsetting rather adding to the warming .
Since 2014 SH has played a moderating role , offsetting the NH warming pulses .
( Note : these are high anomalies on top of the highest absolute temps in the NH . )
What to make of all this ?
The patterns suggest that in addition to El Ninos in the Pacific driving the Tropic SSTs , something else is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ culprit is the North Atlantic , since I have seen this sort of pulsing before .
After reading some papers by David Dilley , I confirmed his observation of Atlantic pulses into the Arctic every 8 to 10 years .
But the peaks coming nearly every summer in HadSST require a different picture .
Let ’ s look at August , the hottest month in the North Atlantic from the Kaplan dataset .
The AMO Index is from from Kaplan SST v2 , the unaltered and not detrended dataset .
By definition , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a 5×5 grid over the North Atlantic basically 0 to 70N .
The graph shows warming began after 1992 up to 1998 , with a series of matching years since .
Because the N. Atlantic has partnered with the Pacific ENSO recently , let ’ s take a closer look at some AMO years in the last 2 decades .
This graph shows monthly AMO temps for some important years .
The Peak years were 1998 , 2010 and 2016 , with the latter emphasized as the most recent .
The other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emphasized as the coolest in the last 20 years .
Note the red 2018 line is at the bottom of all these tracks .
The black line shows that 2019 began slightly cooler , then tracked 2018 , then rose to match previous summer pulses , before dropping the last four months to be slightly above 2018 and below other years .
The oceans are driving the warming this century .
SSTs took a step up with the 1998 El Nino and have stayed there with help from the North Atlantic , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” The ocean surfaces are releasing a lot of energy , warming the air , but eventually will have a cooling effect .
The decline after 1937 was rapid by comparison , so one wonders : How long can the oceans keep this up ?
If the pattern of recent years continues , NH SST anomalies may rise slightly in coming months , but once again , ENSO which has weakened will probably determine the outcome .
HadSST3 is distinguished from other SST products because HadCRU ( Hadley Climatic Research Unit ) does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
infilling estimated anomalies into grid cells lacking sufficient sampling in a given month .
From reading the documentation and from queries to Met Office , this is their procedure .
HadSST3 imports data from gridcells containing ocean , excluding land cells .
From past records , they have calculated daily and monthly average readings for each grid cell for the period 1961 to 1990 .
Those temperatures form the baseline from which anomalies are calculated .
In a given month , each gridcell with sufficient sampling is averaged for the month and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that month is subtracted , resulting in the monthly anomaly for that cell .
All cells with monthly anomalies are averaged to produce global , hemispheric and tropical anomalies for the month , based on the cells in those locations .
For example , Tropics averages include ocean grid cells lying between latitudes 20N and 20S .
Gridcells lacking sufficient sampling that month are left out of the averaging , and the uncertainty from such missing data is estimated .
IMO that is more reasonable than inventing data to infill .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ displayed in the top image is providing more uniform coverage of the oceans than in the past .

The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:
The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.
HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3. More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end.
The Current Context
The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through March 2020.
A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016, joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016. In 2019 all regions had been converging to reach nearly the same value in April.
Then NH rose exceptionally by almost 0.5C over the four summer months, in August exceeding previous summer peaks in NH since 2015. Now in the last 4 months of 2019 that warm NH pulse reversed sharply. Now in 2020 the first 3 months show little change from last December, particularly in the NH and Tropics. Meanwhile the SH bumped upward in March, causing the global anomaly to rise as well, slightly lower than the peak in August 2019.
Note that higher temps in 2015 and 2016 were first of all due to a sharp rise in Tropical SST, beginning in March 2015, peaking in January 2016, and steadily declining back below its beginning level. Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere added three bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming, with peaks in August of each year. A fourth NH bump was lower and peaked in September 2018. As noted above, a fifth peak in August 2019 exceeded the four previous upward bumps in NH.
And as before, note that the global release of heat was not dramatic, due to the Southern Hemisphere offsetting the Northern one. The major difference between now and 2015-2016 is the absence of Tropical warming driving the SSTs.
A longer view of SSTs
The graph below is noisy, but the density is needed to see the seasonal patterns in the oceanic fluctuations. Previous posts focused on the rise and fall of the last El Nino starting in 2015. This post adds a longer view, encompassing the significant 1998 El Nino and since. The color schemes are retained for Global, Tropics, NH and SH anomalies. Despite the longer time frame, I have kept the monthly data (rather than yearly averages) because of interesting shifts between January and July.
1995 is a reasonable (ENSO neutral) starting point prior to the first El Nino. The sharp Tropical rise peaking in 1998 is dominant in the record, starting Jan. ’97 to pull up SSTs uniformly before returning to the same level Jan. ’99. For the next 2 years, the Tropics stayed down, and the world’s oceans held steady around 0.2C above 1961 to 1990 average.
Then comes a steady rise over two years to a lesser peak Jan. 2003, but again uniformly pulling all oceans up around 0.4C. Something changes at this point, with more hemispheric divergence than before. Over the 4 years until Jan 2007, the Tropics go through ups and downs, NH a series of ups and SH mostly downs. As a result the Global average fluctuates around that same 0.4C, which also turns out to be the average for the entire record since 1995.
2007 stands out with a sharp drop in temperatures so that Jan.08 matches the low in Jan. ’99, but starting from a lower high. The oceans all decline as well, until temps build peaking in 2010.
Now again a different pattern appears. The Tropics cool sharply to Jan 11, then rise steadily for 4 years to Jan 15, at which point the most recent major El Nino takes off. But this time in contrast to ’97-’99, the Northern Hemisphere produces peaks every summer pulling up the Global average. In fact, these NH peaks appear every July starting in 2003, growing stronger to produce 3 massive highs in 2014, 15 and 16. NH July 2017 was only slightly lower, and a fifth NH peak still lower in Sept. 2018.
The highest summer NH peak came in 2019, only this time the Tropics and SH are offsetting rather adding to the warming. Since 2014 SH has played a moderating role, offsetting the NH warming pulses. (Note: these are high anomalies on top of the highest absolute temps in the NH.)
What to make of all this? The patterns suggest that in addition to El Ninos in the Pacific driving the Tropic SSTs, something else is going on in the NH. The obvious culprit is the North Atlantic, since I have seen this sort of pulsing before. After reading some papers by David Dilley, I confirmed his observation of Atlantic pulses into the Arctic every 8 to 10 years.
But the peaks coming nearly every summer in HadSST require a different picture. Let’s look at August, the hottest month in the North Atlantic from the Kaplan dataset.
The AMO Index is from from Kaplan SST v2, the unaltered and not detrended dataset. By definition, the data are monthly average SSTs interpolated to a 5×5 grid over the North Atlantic basically 0 to 70N. The graph shows warming began after 1992 up to 1998, with a series of matching years since. Because the N. Atlantic has partnered with the Pacific ENSO recently, let’s take a closer look at some AMO years in the last 2 decades.
This graph shows monthly AMO temps for some important years. The Peak years were 1998, 2010 and 2016, with the latter emphasized as the most recent. The other years show lesser warming, with 2007 emphasized as the coolest in the last 20 years. Note the red 2018 line is at the bottom of all these tracks. The black line shows that 2019 began slightly cooler, then tracked 2018, then rose to match previous summer pulses, before dropping the last four months to be slightly above 2018 and below other years.
Summary
The oceans are driving the warming this century. SSTs took a step up with the 1998 El Nino and have stayed there with help from the North Atlantic, and more recently the Pacific northern “Blob.” The ocean surfaces are releasing a lot of energy, warming the air, but eventually will have a cooling effect. The decline after 1937 was rapid by comparison, so one wonders: How long can the oceans keep this up? If the pattern of recent years continues, NH SST anomalies may rise slightly in coming months, but once again, ENSO which has weakened will probably determine the outcome.
Footnote: Why Rely on HadSST3
HadSST3 is distinguished from other SST products because HadCRU (Hadley Climatic Research Unit) does not engage in SST interpolation, i.e. infilling estimated anomalies into grid cells lacking sufficient sampling in a given month. From reading the documentation and from queries to Met Office, this is their procedure.
HadSST3 imports data from gridcells containing ocean, excluding land cells. From past records, they have calculated daily and monthly average readings for each grid cell for the period 1961 to 1990. Those temperatures form the baseline from which anomalies are calculated.
In a given month, each gridcell with sufficient sampling is averaged for the month and then the baseline value for that cell and that month is subtracted, resulting in the monthly anomaly for that cell. All cells with monthly anomalies are averaged to produce global, hemispheric and tropical anomalies for the month, based on the cells in those locations. For example, Tropics averages include ocean grid cells lying between latitudes 20N and 20S.
Gridcells lacking sufficient sampling that month are left out of the averaging, and the uncertainty from such missing data is estimated. IMO that is more reasonable than inventing data to infill. And it seems that the Global Drifter Array displayed in the top image is providing more uniform coverage of the oceans than in the past.
via Science Matters
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April 30, 2020 at 11:20AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-30--IEA Projects Demand for Renewable Energy Surging Post-Pandemic While Fossil Fuels Collapse

Another rose-tinted glasses prediction from the climate alarm club .
Wind and solar power are used to declining to zero output on a regular – or irregular – basis , unlike fuel sources of energy .
“ Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use ” – quotes news website Common Dreams .
A new report Thursday from the International Energy Agency projects a bleak year for fossil fuels but a banner 2020 for renewables as the coronavirus pandemic triggers “ the biggest shock to the global energy system in more than seven decades.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire energy world , ” Fatih Birol , the IEA ’ s executive director , said in a statement .
“ Amid today ’ s unparalleled health and economic crises , the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering , especially for coal , oil , and gas .
Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use.
” “ It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts , ” he said , “ but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that came before.
” The Paris-based organization estimates in its “ Global Energy Review ” that—if global economies recover slowly from the impacts of the health crisis—global energy demand will drop by 6 % in 2020 .
Such a decline would bring with it a nearly 8 % drop in energy-related carbon emissions , the biggest ever drop in absolute terms in modern history .
“ Resulting from premature deaths and economic trauma around the world , the historic decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer , ” Birol said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the 2008 financial crisis is anything to go by , we are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve.
” According to the report , Covid-19 contributed to global coal demand dropping in the first three months of year by roughly 8 % compared to the same period in 2019 .
The report also projects global coal demand will drop by about 8 % total in 2020 .
In the U.S. it could drop by 25 % .
Oil demand dropped nearly 5 % in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first quarter .
And in 2020 , demand could drop by 9 % , bringing the yea , in line with 2012 levels , the report adds .
Natural gas demand also witnessed a drop—it was down 2 % in first quarter .
It could drop 5 % in 2020 .

Another rose-tinted glasses prediction from the climate alarm club. Wind and solar power are used to declining to zero output on a regular – or irregular – basis, unlike fuel sources of energy.
“Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use” – quotes news website Common Dreams.
A new report Thursday from the International Energy Agency projects a bleak year for fossil fuels but a banner 2020 for renewables as the coronavirus pandemic triggers “the biggest shock to the global energy system in more than seven decades.”
“This is a historic shock to the entire energy world,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in a statement. “Amid today’s unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil, and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use.”
“It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts,” he said, “but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before.”
The Paris-based organization estimates in its “Global Energy Review” that—if global economies recover slowly from the impacts of the health crisis—global energy demand will drop by 6% in 2020.
Such a decline would bring with it a nearly 8% drop in energy-related carbon emissions, the biggest ever drop in absolute terms in modern history.
“Resulting from premature deaths and economic trauma around the world, the historic decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer,” Birol said, adding, “And if the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis is anything to go by, we are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve.”
According to the report, Covid-19 contributed to global coal demand dropping in the first three months of year by roughly 8% compared to the same period in 2019. The report also projects global coal demand will drop by about 8% total in 2020. In the U.S. it could drop by 25%.
Oil demand dropped nearly 5% in the first quarter compared to 2019’s first quarter. And in 2020, demand could drop by 9%, bringing the yea, in line with 2012 levels, the report adds.
Natural gas demand also witnessed a drop—it was down 2% in first quarter. It could drop 5% in 2020.
Renewables are a vastly different story.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
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April 30, 2020 at 11:00AM