iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-21--Reef Heresy? And the importance of asking questions

Despite a plethora of history and data suggesting that ideas should always be tested , we live during a time when it is so unfashionable to ask the hard questions .
I am so privileged to have written the introduction to Peter Ridd ’ s new book , ‘ Reef Heresy ?
’ .
In it I explain that it is of great concern to both Peter , and myself , that those who claim the Great Barrier Reef to be in terminal decline are so unwilling to engage in any form of debate .
Sometimes the quickest way to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which I mean disagreement between two or more people with each side given opportunity to present their case and their perspective .
The word ‘ heresy ’ , which is the title of Peter ’ s book , means ‘ opinion profoundly at odds with what is generally accepted ’ .
The heresy is that Peter is not committed to the right political dogma .
It is not that he is wrong .
It is interesting that the ‘ other side ’ won ’ t debate .
They would prefer everyone just believed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that we have catastrophic global warming .
And how profoundly sad would that be , if it were true !
The establishment , by which I mean the science managers at James Cook University and the Australian Institute of Marine Science ( AIMS ) , know that it might not be quite so straightforward , and that there could be some issues with some of the science .
But , in general , they are convinced that they are right – or at least on the side of right , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
( Ha ha . )
They certainly don ’ t want to have to get into the detail – or have to keep coring the massive old Porites corals from which an overall coral growth rate for the Great Barrier Reef used to be calculated .
Some of this is explained in a discussion I had with Peter when we were last together in Townsville – a discussion hosted by John Roskam and that included some 400 members of the Institute of Public Affairs ( IPA ) via Zoom .
In this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggest we should all ( both sides ) be less quick to lecture and more interested in asking questions .
Peter Ridd suggests towards the end of his book ( page 184 ) that asking questions in science could be made more legitimate through the establishment of explicit ‘ Red Teams ’ at organisations like AIMS .
Yale University professor , Irving Janis , was detailing the inherent problems with working towards a consensus – and labelled this Group Think – back in the 1950s .
Professor Janis explained in his important book @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will inevitably generate systematic errors .
The conclusion of that long book is that it is critical groups encourage scepticism in order to find the possible errors in their favourite theory or plan .
I would have thought this to be a no-brainer in a civilization as sophisticated as our own , and one in which being able to forecast the weather day-to-day , month-to-month , and year-to-year is so important especially for the proper management of water infrastructure and water allocations for hydro-electricity as well as growing food crops .
Despite a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideas should always be tested , we live during a time when it is so unfashionable to ask the hard questions .
John Roskam ends the YouTube discussion quoting from my new book ‘ Climate Change : The Facts 2020 ’ : It is so much better to have questions that can not be answered , than to live and do science according to answers that can not be questioned .
The post Reef Heresy ?
And the importance of asking questions appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) @

Despite a plethora of history and data suggesting that ideas should always be tested, we live during a time when it is so unfashionable to ask the hard questions.
I am so privileged to have written the introduction to Peter Ridd’s new book, ‘Reef Heresy?’. In it I explain that it is of great concern to both Peter, and myself, that those who claim the Great Barrier Reef to be in terminal decline are so unwilling to engage in any form of debate.
Sometimes the quickest way to the truth is through argument, by which I mean disagreement between two or more people with each side given opportunity to present their case and their perspective.
The word ‘heresy’, which is the title of Peter’s book, means ‘opinion profoundly at odds with what is generally accepted’. The heresy is that Peter is not committed to the right political dogma. It is not that he is wrong.
It is interesting that the ‘other side’ won’t debate. They would prefer everyone just believed that the reef is in terminal decline, and that we have catastrophic global warming. And how profoundly sad would that be, if it were true!
The establishment, by which I mean the science managers at James Cook University and the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), know that it might not be quite so straightforward, and that there could be some issues with some of the science. But, in general, they are convinced that they are right – or at least on the side of right, even if that means being ‘left’. (Ha ha.) They certainly don’t want to have to get into the detail – or have to keep coring the massive old Porites corals from which an overall coral growth rate for the Great Barrier Reef used to be calculated.
Some of this is explained in a discussion I had with Peter when we were last together in Townsville – a discussion hosted by John Roskam and that included some 400 members of the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) via Zoom.
In this discussion, and more generally, I suggest we should all (both sides) be less quick to lecture and more interested in asking questions.
Peter Ridd suggests towards the end of his book (page 184) that asking questions in science could be made more legitimate through the establishment of explicit ‘Red Teams’ at organisations like AIMS. Yale University professor, Irving Janis, was detailing the inherent problems with working towards a consensus – and labelled this Group Think – back in the 1950s. Professor Janis explained in his important book by the same name, how this will inevitably generate systematic errors. The conclusion of that long book is that it is critical groups encourage scepticism in order to find the possible errors in their favourite theory or plan. I would have thought this to be a no-brainer in a civilization as sophisticated as our own, and one in which being able to forecast the weather day-to-day, month-to-month, and year-to-year is so important especially for the proper management of water infrastructure and water allocations for hydro-electricity as well as growing food crops.
Despite a plethora of history and data suggesting that ideas should always be tested, we live during a time when it is so unfashionable to ask the hard questions. John Roskam ends the YouTube discussion quoting from my new book ‘Climate Change: The Facts 2020’: It is so much better to have questions that cannot be answered, than to live and do science according to answers that cannot be questioned.
The post Reef Heresy? And the importance of asking questions appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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December 21, 2020 at 05:55AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-21--The long road to EV competitiveness

The long road to EV competitiveness

Battery prices have fallen , but EVs are nowhere near price parity A few days ago Bloomberg New Energy Finance published a graph suggesting that the long trend of falls in the price of batteries for electric vehicles has now bottomed out .
However , BNEF says that battery pack prices are going to fall further from today ’ s $ 137/kWh – to $ 101 by 2023 and to $ 58 by 2030 .
The 2023 figure is a bit odd , as it represents a reacceleration of the price decline – BNEF are nothing if not optimists about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a hoped-for new technological breakthrough : read a little further , and you discover that “ one possible way that price could be achieved is the widespread production of solid-state batteries , which BNEF estimates could be made for 40 % the cost of current lithium-ion batteries.
” That would be nice , but speculation about what eventual manufacturing costs of technologies that have not yet made it off the lab bench – particularly ones described as “ incredibly expensive to manufacture ” – is no basis for policy decisions .
BNEF describes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” , after which the price premium of electric cars will disappear .
This also seems strange .
The price differential between an EV and its petrol equivalent is currently typically over £11,000 : for example the cheapest electric Mini costs £28,400 , while the cheapest petrol one costs £16,400 .
But the prices of batteries have fallen so far that they now represent as little as 25 % of the cost of the vehicle : we might expect the Mini ’ s battery pack to cost £7000 .
But this is less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vehicle .
In other words , even if you could get the batteries for free , the EV would still be more expensive than its petrol equivalent .
The kind of price reductions that BNEF are talking about in the next few years are going to make a marginal difference only .
A £26 grand Mini ( or a £23 grand one if the government subsidy remains available ) is still going to look very expensive against a £16 grand petrol one .
No doubt this is why the latest wheeze from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taxing cars at 50 % .
The post The long road to EV competitiveness appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Battery prices have fallen, but EVs are nowhere near price parity
A few days ago Bloomberg New Energy Finance published a graph suggesting that the long trend of falls in the price of batteries for electric vehicles has now bottomed out.
However, BNEF says that battery pack prices are going to fall further from today’s $137/kWh – to $101 by 2023 and to $58 by 2030. The 2023 figure is a bit odd, as it represents a reacceleration of the price decline – BNEF are nothing if not optimists about renewable technologies. The second figure represents a hoped-for new technological breakthrough: read a little further, and you discover that “one possible way that price could be achieved is the widespread production of solid-state batteries, which BNEF estimates could be made for 40% the cost of current lithium-ion batteries.” That would be nice, but speculation about what eventual manufacturing costs of technologies that have not yet made it off the lab bench – particularly ones described as “incredibly expensive to manufacture” – is no basis for policy decisions.
BNEF describes $100/kWh as a “tipping point”, after which the price premium of electric cars will disappear. This also seems strange. The price differential between an EV and its petrol equivalent is currently typically over £11,000: for example the cheapest electric Mini costs £28,400, while the cheapest petrol one costs £16,400. But the prices of batteries have fallen so far that they now represent as little as 25% of the cost of the vehicle: we might expect the Mini’s battery pack to cost £7000. But this is less than the price differential on the whole vehicle. In other words, even if you could get the batteries for free, the EV would still be more expensive than its petrol equivalent. The kind of price reductions that BNEF are talking about in the next few years are going to make a marginal difference only. A £26 grand Mini (or a £23 grand one if the government subsidy remains available) is still going to look very expensive against a £16 grand petrol one.
No doubt this is why the latest wheeze from the Green Blob is a call to start taxing cars at 50%.
The post The long road to EV competitiveness appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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December 21, 2020 at 05:40AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-21--Climate change: Law used as stick to beat government

Will the law courts treat failing climate models as a justification for finding in favour of lawsuits designed to force the public to travel less ?
Debatable human rights arguments will be heard .
– – – Plans for airports , energy and roads are facing multiple legal challenges over climate commitments , says BBC News .
Environmentalists are using the law to hound the government to force infrastructure plans into line with its climate change commitments .
Ministers are facing a fusillade of legal challenges on airports , energy and roads .
And now they have been threatened with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reflects the drive towards a zero-emissions economy .
A separate legal challenge to the government ’ s road building strategy from campaign group Transport Action Network is already under way .
Earlier this week , campaigners won a battle to force ministers to review their energy policy statement so it reflects climate concerns .
The new action against the airports strategy comes from a not-for-profit group , the Good Law Project .
It is undaunted by this week ’ s Supreme Court defeat , when judges said the 2018 document didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK was aiming for a 80 % emissions cut by 2050 .
Good Law accepts the Supreme Court ruling – but insists that the UK airports strategy must now be aligned with the Climate Change Act , which is now in force and which demands almost zero emissions by 2050 .
The aviation strategy was agreed in the light of fears that airport capacity in south-east England was becoming over-loaded .
Good Law says the strategy should be reviewed because of the likely long-term dampening effect on business travel from the Covid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the carbon impacts of the runway .
A government spokesperson said it had always been clear that Heathrow expansion is a private sector project which must meet strict criteria on air quality , noise and climate change .
“ We take our commitments on the environment and reducing greenhouse gas emissions seriously , ” they added .
“ The government is planning to consult next year on an aviation decarbonisation strategy , which will set out proposals for how the aviation sector will play its part in delivering our net zero commitments @ @

Will the law courts treat failing climate models as a justification for finding in favour of lawsuits designed to force the public to travel less? Debatable human rights arguments will be heard.
– – –
Plans for airports, energy and roads are facing multiple legal challenges over climate commitments, says BBC News.
Environmentalists are using the law to hound the government to force infrastructure plans into line with its climate change commitments.
Ministers are facing a fusillade of legal challenges on airports, energy and roads.
And now they have been threatened with new legal action unless their airports strategy reflects the drive towards a zero-emissions economy.
A separate legal challenge to the government’s road building strategy from campaign group Transport Action Network is already under way.
Earlier this week, campaigners won a battle to force ministers to review their energy policy statement so it reflects climate concerns.
The new action against the airports strategy comes from a not-for-profit group, the Good Law Project.
It is undaunted by this week’s Supreme Court defeat, when judges said the 2018 document didn’t break the law because at the time the UK was aiming for a 80% emissions cut by 2050.
Good Law accepts the Supreme Court ruling – but insists that the UK airports strategy must now be aligned with the Climate Change Act, which is now in force and which demands almost zero emissions by 2050.
The aviation strategy was agreed in the light of fears that airport capacity in south-east England was becoming over-loaded.
Good Law says the strategy should be reviewed because of the likely long-term dampening effect on business travel from the Covid pandemic – that’s as well as the carbon impacts of the runway.
A government spokesperson said it had always been clear that Heathrow expansion is a private sector project which must meet strict criteria on air quality, noise and climate change.
“We take our commitments on the environment and reducing greenhouse gas emissions seriously,” they added.
“The government is planning to consult next year on an aviation decarbonisation strategy, which will set out proposals for how the aviation sector will play its part in delivering our net zero commitments.”
Full article here.
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December 21, 2020 at 05:39AM