iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-08--Speculation on ice-trapped whales: science-based fiction vs. dishonest science

Ice entrapment of whales is known to happen across the Arctic , including Davis Strait and the Gulf of St. Lawrence .
How common such phenomena were in the past or might be in the future are subjects of conjecture .
However , while speculation is the bread-and-butter of science-based fiction , it is the bane of peer-reviewed science .
I ’ ve written two novels informed by science set a bit in the future ( 2025-2026 ) in Eastern Canada : EATEN was set in Newfoundland and my latest book UPHEAVAL –see a review here – is set in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In UPHEAVAL , one of the issues I explore is ice entrapment of large whales , like North Atlantic right whales .
I speculate in the story whether carcasses of ice-killed whales might provide a powerful enough attraction to lure Davis Strait polar bears down from Labrador and the Strait of Belle Isle into the Gulf of St. Lawrence – and if they did , what might be the repercussions of that shift in distribution .
Here I argue that a novel is the appropriate place for this kind of speculation and researchers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a way that conflates a science-informed guess with evidence-based fact risks eroding public trust in science .
Both of my novels are set in regions that few would call ‘ the Arctic ’ yet both have seasonal sea ice and ice-associated marine mammals , including harp seals , polar bears , belugas , and north Atlantic right whales .
There is also a long history of hunting these animals and recent successes in conservation efforts aimed at their recovery have had some unintended consequences .
For example , after decades of over-hunting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in harp seal numbers off Newfoundland and Labrador over the last 30 years that has helped polar bear numbers in Davis Strait to recover from centuries of over-hunting because harp seals are a critical food source for these bears .
EATEN explored the possibilities of what might happen if that food resource suddenly failed .
Similarly , effective conservation of North Atlantic Right whales ( below ) has also resulted in increased numbers after having been over-hunted for centuries .
However , in recent years some have become trapped in the sea ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ died .
The timing and location of some of these ice-entrapment events suggests a few right and blue whales have re-discovered traditional feeding areas in the northern Gulf , along the south shore of Quebec – which we know about because that ’ s where Basque whalers set up hunting operations in 1520-1625 .
The following excerpt ( my bold ) is from a commentary article published in the Halifax ( Nova Scotia ) Chronicle Herald 22 March 2019 ( by Paul Brodie , a former DFO employee specializing in whale research ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to migrating right whales : Early commercial whaling was conducted in the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Basque whalers from 1520 to 1625 , after fishermen returned with news of abundant whale stocks .
Right and bowhead whales , attracted to the northern Gulf by concentrations of zooplankton , were in numbers sufficient to sustain whaling for generations using existing technology .
The present global numbers for right whales may be as high as 20,000 , consisting of several populations that are either stable or increasing .
Of this number , the 425-450 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Bay of Fundy/Gulf of Maine appear to be of greatest concern .
Collisions with ships and entanglement in fishing gear were the main causes of mortality .
Numbers of this monitored population have shifted to the Gulf of St. Lawrence , where some 30-40 per cent now reside during the summer .
However , this comes at the cost of an additional source of mortality : that of exposure to shifting pack ice .
Should right whales rediscover the ancient feeding and whaling grounds of the northern Gulf , they will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history of what must amount to hundreds of large whales being ice-trapped and smothered , and more recently in 2015 , at least six blue whales were trapped and died in heavy ice .
In the spring of 2017 , there was record pack ice off Newfoundland and Labrador and Newfoundland , trapping many fishing vessels .
It was well-documented by the media .
There was also a sequence of right whale carcasses in various stages of decomposition , drifting in the ice water to the southern Gulf , probably released as northern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Several mortalities were attributed to ship strikes and gear entanglement , and the majority to “ blunt force trauma , ” which can occur when hundreds of square kilometres of wind- and current-driven rafted pack ice ( each square kilometre weighing 500,000 to one million tonnes ) encases and smothers large whales for days or weeks .
Blue whales wintering on the continental shelf begin exploring the entrance to the Gulf of St. Lawrence through the Cabot Strait as early as late March , moving northward along the ice edge as they pass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observation was of two blue whales feeding close to the ice front in the Strait of Belle Isle in April 1967 , which seemed rather perilous should the pack ice shift toward the shore .
In the spring of 2015 , six or more blue whales , as well as humpbacks and sperm whales were lost .
Should right whales occupy their historic northern feeding areas , they would suffer a similar fate .
The year 2017 was one of record pack ice along the Newfoundland and Labrador northern coasts : a year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were discovered in the central and southern Gulf .
Read the whole thing here .
In constructing the storyline for UPHEAVAL , I wondered whether these whale victims of ice entrapment in the Gulf could become an attractant for polar bears , as has been recorded across the Arctic from Wrangel Island to Pond Inlet and Disko Bay , Greenland , amongst others .
I speculated whether carcasses of ice-killed whales might provide a powerful enough attraction to lure Davis Strait polar bears down from Labrador and the Strait of Belle Isle into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if they did , what might happen next , especially if the region is hit by a tsunami while it ’ s covered in sea ice .
Speculation such as this is what science-based fiction is all about and is the appropriate forum for this kind of guesswork .
Contrast this with a paper published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal that involved similar levels of imagination but was passed off as ‘ science ’ .
Without any evidence whatsoever , Kristin Laidre , Ian Stirling and others ( Laidre et al .
2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ survived low-ice levels during the Eemian Interglacial and other warm periods by scavenging carcasses of dead whales during the ice-free season – and then used this baseless premise to advance their advocacy opinion that polar bear survival in the future is doomed because of man-made climate change .
Of course , the media ignored the groundless nature of the original premise and presented something that might have occurred in the past as something that definitely happened – see here , here , and here .
In other words , they sold the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guess made by biologists was a scientifically verified fact .
Bottom line : Presenting speculation informed by science as fiction is an appropriate way to explore intriguing scientific questions but passing off such conjecture as evidence-based science is dishonest and risks eroding public trust in science , especially when it ’ s used to advance an agenda .
Laidre , K.L.
, Stirling , I. , Estes , J.A.
, Kochnev , A. and Roberts , J .
2018 .
Historical and potential future importance of large whales as food for polar bears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doi:10.1002/fee.1963

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on December 6, 2020 |
Ice entrapment of whales is known to happen across the Arctic, including Davis Strait and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. How common such phenomena were in the past or might be in the future are subjects of conjecture. However, while speculation is the bread-and-butter of science-based fiction, it is the bane of peer-reviewed science.
I’ve written two novels informed by science set a bit in the future (2025-2026) in Eastern Canada: EATEN was set in Newfoundland and my latest book UPHEAVAL –see a review here – is set in Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia. In UPHEAVAL, one of the issues I explore is ice entrapment of large whales, like North Atlantic right whales. I speculate in the story whether carcasses of ice-killed whales might provide a powerful enough attraction to lure Davis Strait polar bears down from Labrador and the Strait of Belle Isle into the Gulf of St. Lawrence – and if they did, what might be the repercussions of that shift in distribution.
Here I argue that a novel is the appropriate place for this kind of speculation and researchers who offer such conjecture to the public in a way that conflates a science-informed guess with evidence-based fact risks eroding public trust in science.
Both of my novels are set in regions that few would call ‘the Arctic’ yet both have seasonal sea ice and ice-associated marine mammals, including harp seals, polar bears, belugas, and north Atlantic right whales. There is also a long history of hunting these animals and recent successes in conservation efforts aimed at their recovery have had some unintended consequences. For example, after decades of over-hunting, there has been a huge increase in harp seal numbers off Newfoundland and Labrador over the last 30 years that has helped polar bear numbers in Davis Strait to recover from centuries of over-hunting because harp seals are a critical food source for these bears. EATEN explored the possibilities of what might happen if that food resource suddenly failed.
Similarly, effective conservation of North Atlantic Right whales (below) has also resulted in increased numbers after having been over-hunted for centuries. However, in recent years some have become trapped in the sea ice of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and died. The timing and location of some of these ice-entrapment events suggests a few right and blue whales have re-discovered traditional feeding areas in the northern Gulf, along the south shore of Quebec – which we know about because that’s where Basque whalers set up hunting operations in 1520-1625.
The following excerpt (my bold) is from a commentary article published in the Halifax (Nova Scotia) Chronicle Herald 22 March 2019 (by Paul Brodie, a former DFO employee specializing in whale research), Pack ice could pose new threat to migrating right whales:
Early commercial whaling was conducted in the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Basque whalers from 1520 to 1625, after fishermen returned with news of abundant whale stocks. Right and bowhead whales, attracted to the northern Gulf by concentrations of zooplankton, were in numbers sufficient to sustain whaling for generations using existing technology. … The present global numbers for right whales may be as high as 20,000, consisting of several populations that are either stable or increasing. Of this number, the 425-450 North Atlantic right whales initially summering in the Bay of Fundy/Gulf of Maine appear to be of greatest concern. Collisions with ships and entanglement in fishing gear were the main causes of mortality. Numbers of this monitored population have shifted to the Gulf of St. Lawrence, where some 30-40 per cent now reside during the summer. However, this comes at the cost of an additional source of mortality: that of exposure to shifting pack ice. Should right whales rediscover the ancient feeding and whaling grounds of the northern Gulf, they will be further compromised. There is a long history of what must amount to hundreds of large whales being ice-trapped and smothered, and more recently in 2015, at least six blue whales were trapped and died in heavy ice. In the spring of 2017, there was record pack ice off Newfoundland and Labrador and Newfoundland, trapping many fishing vessels. It was well-documented by the media. There was also a sequence of right whale carcasses in various stages of decomposition, drifting in the ice water to the southern Gulf, probably released as northern pack ice opened up and deteriorated. Several mortalities were attributed to ship strikes and gear entanglement, and the majority to “blunt force trauma,” which can occur when hundreds of square kilometres of wind- and current-driven rafted pack ice (each square kilometre weighing 500,000 to one million tonnes) encases and smothers large whales for days or weeks. … Blue whales wintering on the continental shelf begin exploring the entrance to the Gulf of St. Lawrence through the Cabot Strait as early as late March, moving northward along the ice edge as they pass Port aux Basques. My first direct observation was of two blue whales feeding close to the ice front in the Strait of Belle Isle in April 1967, which seemed rather perilous should the pack ice shift toward the shore. In the spring of 2015, six or more blue whales, as well as humpbacks and sperm whales were lost. Should right whales occupy their historic northern feeding areas, they would suffer a similar fate. The year 2017 was one of record pack ice along the Newfoundland and Labrador northern coasts: a year when at least 12 right whale carcasses were discovered in the central and southern Gulf.
Read the whole thing here.
In constructing the storyline for UPHEAVAL, I wondered whether these whale victims of ice entrapment in the Gulf could become an attractant for polar bears, as has been recorded across the Arctic from Wrangel Island to Pond Inlet and Disko Bay, Greenland, amongst others. I speculated whether carcasses of ice-killed whales might provide a powerful enough attraction to lure Davis Strait polar bears down from Labrador and the Strait of Belle Isle into the Gulf of St. Lawrence – and if they did, what might happen next, especially if the region is hit by a tsunami while it’s covered in sea ice.
Speculation such as this is what science-based fiction is all about and is the appropriate forum for this kind of guesswork.
Contrast this with a paper published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal that involved similar levels of imagination but was passed off as ‘science’. Without any evidence whatsoever, Kristin Laidre, Ian Stirling and others (Laidre et al. 2018) suggested that polar bears ‘likely’ survived low-ice levels during the Eemian Interglacial and other warm periods by scavenging carcasses of dead whales during the ice-free season – and then used this baseless premise to advance their advocacy opinion that polar bear survival in the future is doomed because of man-made climate change.
Of course, the media ignored the groundless nature of the original premise and presented something that might have occurred in the past as something that definitely happened – see here, here, and here. In other words, they sold the general public a lie by suggesting a guess made by biologists was a scientifically verified fact.
Bottom line: Presenting speculation informed by science as fiction is an appropriate way to explore intriguing scientific questions but passing off such conjecture as evidence-based science is dishonest and risks eroding public trust in science, especially when it’s used to advance an agenda.
REFERENCES
Laidre, K.L., Stirling, I., Estes, J.A., Kochnev, A. and Roberts,J. 2018. Historical and potential future importance of large whales as food for polar bears. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment doi:10.1002/fee.1963
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-08--Milloy testifies on Pennsylvania Governor Wolf’s proposal to join RGGI

My oral testimony delivered this morning to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection .
( Cartoon from Cartoons by Josh ) .
Gov .
Wolf wants to enlist Pennsylvania in a futile battle to change the weather .
He ’ s proposed that Pennsylvania join something called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or “ RGGI ” .
RGGI is an agreement between Northeast states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions via a cap-and-trade system .
If Pennsylvania joins RGGI , power plants in the state will have to purchase permits to emit carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) .
The scheme is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase and their availability to decrease every year so that it becomes more and more expensive for power plants to emit CO2 .
What could go wrong with a plan to make electricity cost more every year ?
If you listen to Gov .
Wolf , the answer is nothing .
He claims that emissions will decline by a cumulative 188 million tons by 2030 .
He says electricity prices will be 3 % lower than they otherwise would be by 2030 .
He says personal income will only be slightly lower by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher .
Gov .
Wolf also claims that there will be public health benefits worth an estimated $ 6.3 billion by 2030 .
What ’ s not to like ?
So the whole idea of this scheme is to “ combat climate change.
” Will it ?
Regardless of whether you believe United Nations science on climate , an indisputable reality is that human activities produce about 55 billion tons of emissions every year .
The UN says those emissions are increasing with no end in sight .
So by 2030 , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have reduced state CO2 emissions by 188 million tons , the world will have emitted more than 550 billion tons .
So RGGI in Pennsylvania will reduce global emissions by a measly 0.034 % at most .
The insignificance to the global climate and weather of that level of emissions cut is obvious .
So RGGI will accomplish nothing for the climate or environment .
But electricity prices will be 3 % lower , says Gov .
Wolf .
Well , how will electricity prices be lower if the cost to produce electricity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s easy .
Pennsylvanians would be paying slightly less for electricity because they will be using a lot less electricity .
Gov .
Wolf wants to reduce cumulative electricity use in Pennsylvania by a whopping 27,822 gigawatt-hours by 2030 .
The other term for this so-called “ demand reduction ” policy is rationing .
Though the world is awash in cheap energy , Gov .
Wolf intends to ration electricity in Pennsylvania and Pennsylvanians will be paying more for less electricity .
Don ’ t forget that compared with states without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states in RGGI have already seen their electricity prices rise 64 % faster , according to the Commonwealth Foundation .
What about Gov .
Wolf ’ s projections for personal income and state revenue ?
I know of no state government that can successfully predict your or its income 10 years in the future .
But if you work in , or depend on the coal or fracking industries – like hundreds of thousands in Pennsylvania — RGGI is not designed to be a job security program for you .
Such high-paying jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower wage wind and solar workers .
Although Gov .
Wolf projects the state to come out ever so slightly financially ahead by 2030 because of RGGI ’ s cap-and-tax design , this is nonsense .
There will be offsetting and lost tax revenues from reduced coal mining and fracking .
Also , it ’ s hard to imagine how making people pointlessly poorer will boost state tax revenues .
Finally , there is the claim that RGGI ’ s emissions cuts will bring public health benefits that , if hypothetically monetized , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more total nonsense .
Pennsylvania ’ s air quality is already clean and safe .
Air pollution in Pennsylvania is at historically low levels .
Claims to the contrary are based on statistical shenanigans and other junk science outside the scope of this 5-minute testimony .
Air quality is not killing or sickening anyone .
Not a cough or a wheeze is caused by anything coming out of any power plant .
There is simply no scientific or medical evidence indicating that anyone ’ s health is being harmed by Pennsylvania air @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , let ’ s debate it at a special hearing convened by the Pennsylvania Department of Environment Protection .
You will lose , but learn a great deal .
In contrast , we know that unemploying people and making them poorer hurts their health .
That is certain to happen as Gov .
Wolf ’ s RGGI membership kills coals mining , fracking , power plants and their support industries .
Pennsylvania ’ s participation in RGGI will accomplish nothing for the environment , climate or public health .
Instead , energy prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poorer .
Gov .
Wolf ’ s electricity rationing will only hurt the standard of living in Pennsylvania .
The cap-and-tax wolf is at the door , Pennsylvania .
Don ’ t open it .

My oral testimony delivered this morning to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. (Cartoon from Cartoons by Josh).
Good morning. I’m Steve Milloy. I publish JunkScience.com.
Gov. Wolf wants to enlist Pennsylvania in a futile battle to change the weather.
He’s proposed that Pennsylvania join something called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or “RGGI”.
RGGI is an agreement between Northeast states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions via a cap-and-trade system.
If Pennsylvania joins RGGI, power plants in the state will have to purchase permits to emit carbon dioxide (CO2).
The scheme is for the price of the permits to increase and their availability to decrease every year so that it becomes more and more expensive for power plants to emit CO2.
What could go wrong with a plan to make electricity cost more every year?
If you listen to Gov. Wolf, the answer is nothing.
He claims that emissions will decline by a cumulative 188 million tons by 2030.
He says electricity prices will be 3% lower than they otherwise would be by 2030.
He says personal income will only be slightly lower by 2030 but state revenue will be slightly higher.
Gov. Wolf also claims that there will be public health benefits worth an estimated $6.3 billion by 2030.
What’s not to like?
So the whole idea of this scheme is to “combat climate change.” Will it?
Regardless of whether you believe United Nations science on climate, an indisputable reality is that human activities produce about 55 billion tons of emissions every year.
The UN says those emissions are increasing with no end in sight.
So by 2030, when Pennsylvania’s RGGI membership supposedly will have reduced state CO2 emissions by 188 million tons, the world will have emitted more than 550 billion tons.
So RGGI in Pennsylvania will reduce global emissions by a measly 0.034% at most.
The insignificance to the global climate and weather of that level of emissions cut is obvious.
So RGGI will accomplish nothing for the climate or environment.
But electricity prices will be 3% lower, says Gov. Wolf.
Well, how will electricity prices be lower if the cost to produce electricity is going to increase every year?
That’s easy. Pennsylvanians would be paying slightly less for electricity because they will be using a lot less electricity.
Gov. Wolf wants to reduce cumulative electricity use in Pennsylvania by a whopping 27,822
gigawatt-hours by 2030.
The other term for this so-called “demand reduction” policy is rationing.
Though the world is awash in cheap energy, Gov. Wolf intends to ration electricity in Pennsylvania and Pennsylvanians will be paying more for less electricity.
Don’t forget that compared with states without excessive CO2 emissions regulations, the other states in RGGI have already seen their electricity prices rise 64% faster, according to the Commonwealth Foundation.
What about Gov. Wolf’s projections for personal income and state revenue?
I know of no state government that can successfully predict your or its income 10 years in the future.
But if you work in, or depend on the coal or fracking industries – like hundreds of thousands in Pennsylvania — RGGI is not designed to be a job security program for you.
Such high-paying jobs are earmarked to be redistributed to much lower wage wind and solar workers.
Although Gov. Wolf projects the state to come out ever so slightly financially ahead by 2030 because of RGGI’s cap-and-tax design, this is nonsense.
There will be offsetting and lost tax revenues from reduced coal mining and fracking.
Also, it’s hard to imagine how making people pointlessly poorer will boost state tax revenues.
Finally, there is the claim that RGGI’s emissions cuts will bring public health benefits that, if hypothetically monetized, are worth billions of dollars. This is more total nonsense.
Pennsylvania’s air quality is already clean and safe.
Air pollution in Pennsylvania is at historically low levels.
Claims to the contrary are based on statistical shenanigans and other junk science outside the scope of this 5-minute testimony.
Air quality is not killing or sickening anyone. Not a cough or a wheeze is caused by anything coming out of any power plant.
There is simply no scientific or medical evidence indicating that anyone’s health is being harmed by Pennsylvania air quality.
But if you doubt me, let’s debate it at a special hearing convened by the Pennsylvania Department of Environment Protection. You will lose, but learn a great deal.
In contrast, we know that unemploying people and making them poorer hurts their health.
That is certain to happen as Gov. Wolf’s RGGI membership kills coals mining, fracking, power plants and their support industries.
What’s the bottom line?
Pennsylvania’s participation in RGGI will accomplish nothing for the environment, climate or public health.
Instead, energy prices will increase, making Pennsylvania and Pennsylvanians poorer.
Gov. Wolf’s electricity rationing will only hurt the standard of living in Pennsylvania.
The cap-and-tax wolf is at the door, Pennsylvania. Don’t open it.
Additional resources:
Pennsylvania’s RGGI modeling report.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-08--2020 Elections Fraud Updates

2020 Elections Fraud Updates

“ The secretary of state ’ s office has spoken with Dominion Voting Systems — the company that sold Georgia @ @ @ @ @ equipment — about changes to the system that could help local officials account for all @ @ @ @ @ have filed a complaint with the FBI .
“ When voters insert their paper ballots @ @ @ @ @ votes are stored on memory cards .
But unlike the state ’ s previous voting @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t raise as large of a red flag if a memory card hasn @ @ @ @ @ “ Yes , the Dominion Democracy Suite allows election officials to include only some voting @ @ @ @ @ voting files , and to arbitrarily edit the results .

Georgia recount [risk limiting audit], Nov 19:
“The secretary of state’s office has spoken with Dominion Voting Systems — the company that sold Georgia its $107 million voting equipment — about changes to the system that could help local officials account for all memory cards…”
He should have filed a complaint with the FBI.
“When voters insert their paper ballots into scanning machines, their votes are stored on memory cards. But unlike the state’s previous voting system, the new computers don’t raise as large of a red flag if a memory card hasn’t been accounted for.“
Yes, the Dominion Democracy Suite allows election officials to include only some voting files, to add fake voting files, and to arbitrarily edit the results.
via Science Defies Politics
https://ift.tt/3mSJxNn
December 8, 2020 at 11:49AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-08--Monster volcano in Alaska

Monster volcano in Alaska

“ Cluster of Alaskan Islands Could be Single , Interconnected Giant Volcano , ” reads the headline .
A super-volcano , in other words .
We ’ re talking about a super-volcano even bigger than Okmok , also located in the Aleutians .
Scientists believe that Okmok ’ s eruption in the year 43 BCE triggered crop failures and famine around the Mediterranean Sea , which contributed to the fall of the Roman Republic .
We ’ re talking about a super-volcano that could trigger a volcanic winter .
According to a press release from the American Geophysical Union ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volcanic islands in Alaska ’ s Aleutian chain might be part of a single , undiscovered giant volcano , say scientists presenting the findings Monday , 7 December at AGU ’ s Fall Meeting 2020 .
If the researchers ’ suspicions are correct , the newfound volcanic caldera would belong to the same category of volcanoes as the Yellowstone Caldera and other volcanoes that have had super-eruptions with severe global consequences .
The Islands of the Four Mountains in the central Aleutians is a tight group of six stratovolcanoes named Carlisle , Cleveland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Uliaga .
Stratovolcanoes are what most people envision when they think of a volcano : a steep conical mountain with a banner of clouds and ash waving at the summit .
They can have powerful eruptions , like that of Mount St. Helens in 1980 , but these are dwarfed by far less frequent caldera-forming eruptions .
Researchers from a variety of institutions and disciplines have gathered multiple pieces of evidence showing that the islands could belong to one interconnected caldera .
Caldera-forming eruptions are the most explosive volcanic eruptions on Earth and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The ash and gas they put into the atmosphere can affect Earth ’ s climate and trigger social upheaval .
For example , the eruption of nearby Okmok volcano in the year BCE 43 has been recently implicated in the disruption of the Roman Republic .
The proposed caldera underlying the Islands of the Four Mountains would be even larger than Okmok .
If confirmed , it would become the first in the Aleutians that is hidden underwater , said Diana Roman of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington , D.C. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hypothesis might also help explain the frequent explosive activity seen at Mount Cleveland , Roman said .
Mount Cleveland is arguably the most active volcano in North America for at least the last 20 years .
It has produced ash clouds as high as 15,000 and 30,000 feet above sea level .
These eruptions pose hazards to aircraft traveling the busy air routes between North America and Asia .
These six stratovolcanoes are collectively known as the Islands of the Four Mountains .
But they might also be connected as part of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depression that can contain multiple vents , according to findings that will be presented virtually on Monday ( Dec. 7 ) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union ( AGU ) .
Cluster of Alaskan islands could be single , interconnected giant volcano See also : Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska ’ s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom https : //www.pnas.org/content/117/27/15443 Thanks to Mickey for these links The post Monster volcano in Alaska appeared first on Ice Age Now @

“Cluster of Alaskan Islands Could be Single, Interconnected Giant Volcano,” reads the headline. A super-volcano, in other words.
We’re talking about a super-volcano even bigger than Okmok, also located in the Aleutians.
Scientists believe that Okmok’s eruption in the year 43 BCE triggered crop failures and famine around the Mediterranean Sea, which contributed to the fall of the Roman Republic.
We’re talking about a super-volcano that could trigger a volcanic winter.
According to a press release from the American Geophysical Union (AGU), a small group of volcanic islands in Alaska’s Aleutian chain might be part of a single, undiscovered giant volcano, say scientists presenting the findings Monday, 7 December at AGU’s Fall Meeting 2020.
If the researchers’ suspicions are correct, the newfound volcanic caldera would belong to the same category of volcanoes as the Yellowstone Caldera and other volcanoes that have had super-eruptions with severe global consequences.
The Islands of the Four Mountains in the central Aleutians is a tight group of six stratovolcanoes named Carlisle, Cleveland, Herbert, Kagamil, Tana and Uliaga. Stratovolcanoes are what most people envision when they think of a volcano: a steep conical mountain with a banner of clouds and ash waving at the summit. They can have powerful eruptions, like that of Mount St. Helens in 1980, but these are dwarfed by far less frequent caldera-forming eruptions.
Researchers from a variety of institutions and disciplines have gathered multiple pieces of evidence showing that the islands could belong to one interconnected caldera.
Even larger than Okmok
Caldera-forming eruptions are the most explosive volcanic eruptions on Earth and they often have had global effects. The ash and gas they put into the atmosphere can affect Earth’s climate and trigger social upheaval. For example, the eruption of nearby Okmok volcano in the year BCE 43 has been recently implicated in the disruption of the Roman Republic. The proposed caldera underlying the Islands of the Four Mountains would be even larger than Okmok. If confirmed, it would become the first in the Aleutians that is hidden underwater, said Diana Roman of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, D.C., co-author of the study.
The caldera hypothesis might also help explain the frequent explosive activity seen at Mount Cleveland, Roman said. Mount Cleveland is arguably the most active volcano in North America for at least the last 20 years. It has produced ash clouds as high as 15,000 and 30,000 feet above sea level. These eruptions pose hazards to aircraft traveling the busy air routes between North America and Asia. These six stratovolcanoes are collectively known as the Islands of the Four Mountains. But they might also be connected as part of a caldera, a massive, bowl-shaped volcanic depression that can contain multiple vents, according to findings that will be presented virtually on Monday (Dec. 7) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Cluster of Alaskan islands could be single, interconnected giant volcano See also:
Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/27/15443 Thanks to Mickey for these links
The post Monster volcano in Alaska appeared first on Ice Age Now.
via Ice Age Now
https://ift.tt/3qHGQke
December 8, 2020 at 10:57AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-08--New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record, says NCAR

‘ Scientists use an extended , 22-year solar cycle to make the forecast ’ is the sub-heading to the article .
In other words the Hale cycle .
At the end of last year The Talkshop detailed Plenty of predictions from a wide range of research groups , including our own , made in 2013 .
A possible ( ? )
early indicator is that the ‘ smoothed minimum ’ of sunspots at the start of solar cycle 25 is given by Wikipedia as 1.8 , the lowest recorded since cycle 7 ( 0.2 ) in 1823 .
– – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecast , a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research ( NCAR ) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began , says NCAR News .
In a new article published in Solar Physics , the research team predicts that Sunspot Cycle 25 will peak with a maximum sunspot number somewhere between approximately 210 and 260 , which would put the new cycle in the company of the top few ever observed .
The cycle that just ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sunspot number of 116 , and the consensus forecast from a panel of experts convened by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) is predicting that Sunspot Cycle 25 will be similarly weak .
The panel predicts a peak sunspot number of 115 .
If the new NCAR-led forecast is borne out , it would lend support to the research team ’ s unorthodox theory – detailed in a series of papers published over the last decade – that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interact to produce the well-known , approximately 11-year sunspot cycle as a byproduct .
The 22-year cycles repeat like clockwork and could be a key to finally making accurate predictions of the timing and nature of sunspot cycles , as well as many of the effects they produce , according to the study ’ s authors .
“ Scientists have struggled to predict both the length and the strength of sunspot cycles because we lack a fundamental understanding of the mechanism that drives the cycle , ” said NCAR Deputy Director Scott McIntosh @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study .
“ If our forecast proves correct , we will have evidence that our framework for understanding the Sun ’ s internal magnetic machine is on the right path .
”

‘Scientists use an extended, 22-year solar cycle to make the forecast’ is the sub-heading to the article. In other words the Hale cycle. At the end of last year The Talkshop detailed Plenty of predictions from a wide range of research groups, including our own, made in 2013. A possible (?) early indicator is that the ‘smoothed minimum’ of sunspots at the start of solar cycle 25 is given by Wikipedia as 1.8, the lowest recorded since cycle 7 (0.2) in 1823.
– – –
In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began, says NCAR News.
In a new article published in Solar Physics, the research team predicts that Sunspot Cycle 25 will peak with a maximum sunspot number somewhere between approximately 210 and 260, which would put the new cycle in the company of the top few ever observed.
The cycle that just ended, Sunspot Cycle 24, peaked with a sunspot number of 116, and the consensus forecast from a panel of experts convened by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that Sunspot Cycle 25 will be similarly weak. The panel predicts a peak sunspot number of 115.
If the new NCAR-led forecast is borne out, it would lend support to the research team’s unorthodox theory – detailed in a series of papers published over the last decade – that the Sun has overlapping 22-year magnetic cycles that interact to produce the well-known, approximately 11-year sunspot cycle as a byproduct.
The 22-year cycles repeat like clockwork and could be a key to finally making accurate predictions of the timing and nature of sunspot cycles, as well as many of the effects they produce, according to the study’s authors.
“Scientists have struggled to predict both the length and the strength of sunspot cycles because we lack a fundamental understanding of the mechanism that drives the cycle,” said NCAR Deputy Director Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist who led the study.
“If our forecast proves correct, we will have evidence that our framework for understanding the Sun’s internal magnetic machine is on the right path.”
Continued here.
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December 8, 2020 at 10:09AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-08--Texas Sues Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Directly with Supreme Court

The State of Texas is asking the Supreme Court to order the states to allow their legislatures to appoint their @ @ @ @ @ a lawsuit directly with the U.S. Supreme Court shortly before midnight on Monday challenging the @ @ @ @ @ Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin on the grounds that they violate the Constitution .
@ @ @ @ @ violated the Electors Clause of the Constitution because they made changes to voting rules and @ @ @ @ @ through executive actions , but not through the state legislatures .
Additionally , Texas argues @ @ @ @ @ voting rules and procedures in different counties within the states , violating the Constitution ’ @ @ @ @ @ Finally , Texas argues that there were “ voting irregularities ” in these states as @ @ @ @ @ .
Thanks to Larrabee for this link The post Texas Sues Georgia , Michigan , @ @ @ @ @ with Supreme Court appeared first on Ice Age Now .

The State of Texas is asking the Supreme Court to order the states to allow their legislatures to appoint their electors.
The state filed a lawsuit directly with the U.S. Supreme Court shortly before midnight on Monday challenging the election procedures in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on the grounds that they violate the Constitution.
Texas argues that these states violated the Electors Clause of the Constitution because they made changes to voting rules and procedures through the courts or through executive actions, but not through the state legislatures.
Additionally, Texas argues that there were differences in voting rules and procedures in different counties within the states, violating the Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause.
Finally, Texas argues that there were “voting irregularities” in these states as a result of the above.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/07/texas-sues-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-at-supreme-court-election-rules/
Thanks to Larrabee for this link
The post Texas Sues Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Directly with Supreme Court appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 8, 2020 at 09:46AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Tesla Powerwall Price Has Risen By 36% Since 2017

We keep hearing how the price of batteries keeps falling ( allowing Gummer to get away with the claim that @ @ @ @ @ cheap as ICEs ) .
However the reality is the opposite , at least as @ @ @ @ @ .
In June 2017 , I ran a post on the economics of Tesla Powerwall @ @ @ @ @ This is the what Tesla ’ s website showed at the time : Last year @ @ @ @ @ check again : So in the space of three years , the price of a @ @ @ @ @ % .
( Each quote , by the way , is based on exactly the @ @ @ @ @ KWh unit ) .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
We keep hearing how the price of batteries keeps falling (allowing Gummer to get away with the claim that EVs will soon be as cheap as ICEs). However the reality is the opposite, at least as far as Tesla is concerned.
In June 2017, I ran a post on the economics of Tesla Powerwall batteries for domestic use.
This is the what Tesla’s website showed at the time:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/06/16/tesla-powerwall-economics/
Last year, I thought I would check again:
And now?
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/powerwall/design
So in the space of three years, the price of a Powerwall has risen by 36% . (Each quote, by the way, is based on exactly the same specification, the 14 KWh unit).
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December 9, 2020 at 04:36AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Trumps two year Sting for foreign interference? Executive Order 13848 may trigger by Dec 18

Trump has options and much more power than most people have any idea of The end of the road is not the Supreme Court .
It ’ s not December 14 , and it ’ s not even the House and a contingent election .
Watch this space : There ’ s a possible Sting Op of a major scale If it pans out , we will need industrial scale popcorn .
At this point it is speculation , but what an interesting tale .
President Trump made an executive order in Sept 2018 which was interpreted at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threat , which was the high fashion of the day , but may be a historic trap sprung against foreign actors and their domestic collaborators .
It arms Trump with a process to It ’ s not unthinkable that The Great Reset will instead become the The Great Cleansing of the Deep State .
That ’ s if the servers and voting machines have the evidence of foreign interference in the US election .
But watch for signs that EO 13848 is live — it may send people to jail .
Remember the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intel had captured the CIA servers from Germany , and there may have been deaths involved ?
It ’ s like a [ … ]

Trump has options and much more power than most people have any idea of
The end of the road is not the Supreme Court. It’s not December 14, and it’s not even the House and a contingent election.
Watch this space: There’s a possible Sting Op of a major scale
If it pans out, we will need industrial scale popcorn. At this point it is speculation, but what an interesting tale.
President Trump made an executive order in Sept 2018 which was interpreted at the time as about “the Russian collusion” threat, which was the high fashion of the day, but may be a historic trap sprung against foreign actors and their domestic collaborators. It arms Trump with a process to It’s not unthinkable that The Great Reset will instead become the The Great Cleansing of the Deep State. That’s if the servers and voting machines have the evidence of foreign interference in the US election. But watch for signs that EO 13848 is live — it may send people to jail. Remember the two 3 star generals who said military intel had captured the CIA servers from Germany, and there may have been deaths involved? It’s like a […]
Rating: 10.0/10 (5 votes cast)
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December 9, 2020 at 04:34AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--£32bn? Cheap At The Price, Says Harrabin!

A landmark report says the UK can make major cuts to carbon emissions more cheaply than previously thought .
The Climate Change Committee says that , for less than 1 % of national wealth , the UK can reduce 78 % of emissions by 2035 , based on 1990 levels .
This brings forward the UK ’ s clean energy timetable by 15 years – a previously unimaginable leap .
The report says the low costs for the transformation are due to new clean technologies also being more efficient .
The authors say people can play their part by eating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ driving less and installing low-carbon heating .
They estimate the costs of the low-carbon revolution will scale up to an annual £50bn by 2030 from around $ 10bn today , with most being private investment .
By 2030 , they estimate that some of these costs will be offset by fuel savings of £18bn .
CCC members say the targets proposed for the UK ’ s “ carbon budget ” period of 2033-2035 are definitely achievable , so long as the government moves urgently .
The advisory body says the shift to electric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ petrol cars because the former is about three times more efficient .
That means the government may need to claw back tax income by imposing pay-as-you-drive schemes .
But the committee warns that ministers will need to shield the poorest in society .
It will cost , for instance , an average of £10,000 to insulate a home and install low-carbon heating such as heat pumps .
The report says the government must find £3-4bn a year to support households make the transition .
This is one of those reports where you don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cry !
Harrabin may think £32bn a year is a bargain , but that equates to £1185 for every home in the country .
And even that figure is based on the highly dubious assumption that drivers will save £18bn a year on fuel by driving electric cars .
We have already seen that those who will rely on public chargers won ’ t save a penny , indeed they will almost certainly be worse off .
And the calculation also assumes that the price of EVs reaches parity with ICEs by 2030 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the annual cost by 2035 , when we are aiming for a cut in emissions of 78 % .
The CCC themselves have already admitted that the cost of going from this level of cut to Net Zero will be much greater .
I ’ ll be looking more closely at the CCC ’ s proposals in coming days .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Harrabin thinks £32bn is cheap!!
A landmark report says the UK can make major cuts to carbon emissions more cheaply than previously thought.
The Climate Change Committee says that, for less than 1% of national wealth, the UK can reduce 78% of emissions by 2035, based on 1990 levels.
This brings forward the UK’s clean energy timetable by 15 years – a previously unimaginable leap.
The report says the low costs for the transformation are due to new clean technologies also being more efficient.
The authors say people can play their part by eating less red meat, curbing flying, driving less and installing low-carbon heating.
They estimate the costs of the low-carbon revolution will scale up to an annual £50bn by 2030 from around $10bn today, with most being private investment.
By 2030, they estimate that some of these costs will be offset by fuel savings of £18bn.
CCC members say the targets proposed for the UK’s “carbon budget” period of 2033-2035 are definitely achievable, so long as the government moves urgently.
The advisory body says the shift to electric vehicles will prove cheaper than sticking with petrol cars because the former is about three times more efficient.
That means the government may need to claw back tax income by imposing pay-as-you-drive schemes.
But the committee warns that ministers will need to shield the poorest in society.
It will cost, for instance, an average of £10,000 to insulate a home and install low-carbon heating such as heat pumps. The report says the government must find £3-4bn a year to support households make the transition.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55237821
This is one of those reports where you don’t know whether to cry or cry!
Harrabin may think £32bn a year is a bargain, but that equates to £1185 for every home in the country. And even that figure is based on the highly dubious assumption that drivers will save £18bn a year on fuel by driving electric cars.
We have already seen that those who will rely on public chargers won’t save a penny, indeed they will almost certainly be worse off. And the calculation also assumes that the price of EVs reaches parity with ICEs by 2030.
And all of this is just the annual cost by 2035, when we are aiming for a cut in emissions of 78%. The CCC themselves have already admitted that the cost of going from this level of cut to Net Zero will be much greater.
I’ll be looking more closely at the CCC’s proposals in coming days.
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December 9, 2020 at 04:18AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Axios: Suspected Chinese Spy Helped Fundraise for Climate Radical Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA)

h/t Breitbart ; Axios claims a suspected Chinese spy attempted to infiltrate and influence the Obama administration , with an alleged string of sordid sexual liaisons and political activities , including prolific fundraising for Green New Deal supporter Eric Swalwell ( D-CA ) .
Note there is no suggestion the targets of the alleged espionage were aware of any nefarious activity .
A suspected Chinese intelligence operative developed extensive ties with local and national politicians , including a U.S. congressman , in what U.S. officials believe was a political intelligence operation run by China ’ s main civilian spy agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a yearlong investigation .
The woman at the center of the operation , a Chinese national named Fang Fang or Christine Fang , targeted up-and-coming local politicians in the Bay Area and across the country who had the potential to make it big on the national stage .
Among the most significant targets of Fang ’ s efforts was Rep. Eric Swalwell ( D-Calif. ) .
• None Fang took part in fundraising activity for Swalwell ’ s 2014 re-election campaign , according to a Bay Area political operative and a current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office was directly aware of these activities on its behalf , the political operative said .
That same political operative , who witnessed Fang fundraising on Swalwell ’ s behalf , found no evidence of illegal contributions .
• Federal Election Commission records don ’ t indicate Fang herself made donations , which are prohibited from foreign nationals .
• None Fang helped place at least one intern in Swalwell ’ s office , according to those same two people , and interacted with Swalwell at multiple events over the course of several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s office provided to Axios said : “ Rep .
Swalwell , long ago , provided information about this person — whom he met more than eight years ago , and whom he hasn ’ t seen in nearly six years — to the FBI .
To protect information that might be classified , he will not participate in your story.
” • in 2013 , according to a flyer from the event Fang shared on Facebook .
She appeared in photos over multiple years with a host of California politicians , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • None She positioned herself “ to be the connector between the Asian American community and members of Congress , ” recalled a Bay Area political operative who knew her .
While serving on the House of Representatives Committee on Science , Space and Technology , Rep Eric Swalwell pushed hard for the acceptance of radical climate positions .
One freshman on the Democratic side couldn ’ t resist adding his own brand of insults , aimed not at the witness but at his Republican colleagues .
“ I have to say that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this point you should be prepared to address whether the Earth is round or flat , or whether indeed gravity is happening .
You just never know what could fly at you , ” said Representative Eric Swalwell ( D–CA ) , whose northern California district includes two Energy Department national laboratories .
His scorn also took him far afield from the subject of the hearing .
“ And I have to say that , with 97 % of scientists stating that climate change is manmade , I ’ m encouraged to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the aisle have given voice to the minority 3 % , ” Swalwell continued , his voice dripping with sarcasm .
“ This is encouraging for the other minorities that my colleagues across the aisle have not helped out , including immigrants waiting for comprehensive immigration reform , women who have not received equal pay for equal work , and those who are affected by changes in the Voting Rights Act.
” Swalwell currently serves on the House Intelligence Committee .
Swalwell reportedly thinks the spy scandal story is President Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether the alleged Chinese spy genuinely wanted to help radical green Democrat candidates like Swalwell , or whether she just used her fundraising efforts and other activities to stroke egos and gather information .
And of course , there may be active Chinese spies working to infiltrate other parties just as hard as Fang allegedly worked a string of Democrat politicians .

Alleged Chinese Spy Christine Fang
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; Axios claims a suspected Chinese spy attempted to infiltrate and influence the Obama administration, with an alleged string of sordid sexual liaisons and political activities, including prolific fundraising for Green New Deal supporter Eric Swalwell (D-CA). Note there is no suggestion the targets of the alleged espionage were aware of any nefarious activity.
Exclusive: Suspected Chinese spy targeted California politicians Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, Zach Dorfman of the Aspen Institute A suspected Chinese intelligence operative developed extensive ties with local and national politicians, including a U.S. congressman, in what U.S. officials believe was a political intelligence operation run by China’s main civilian spy agency between 2011 and 2015, Axios found in a yearlong investigation. … The woman at the center of the operation, a Chinese national named Fang Fang or Christine Fang, targeted up-and-coming local politicians in the Bay Area and across the country who had the potential to make it big on the national stage. … Among the most significant targets of Fang’s efforts was Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). Fang took part in fundraising activity for Swalwell’s 2014 re-election campaign , according to a Bay Area political operative and a current U.S. intelligence official. Swalwell’s office was directly aware of these activities on its behalf, the political operative said. That same political operative, who witnessed Fang fundraising on Swalwell’s behalf, found no evidence of illegal contributions.
, according to a Bay Area political operative and a current U.S. intelligence official. Swalwell’s office was directly aware of these activities on its behalf, the political operative said. That same political operative, who witnessed Fang fundraising on Swalwell’s behalf, found no evidence of illegal contributions. Federal Election Commission records don’t indicate Fang herself made donations, which are prohibited from foreign nationals.
Fang helped place at least one intern in Swalwell’s office , according to those same two people, and interacted with Swalwell at multiple events over the course of several years. A statement from Swalwell’s office provided to Axios said: “Rep. Swalwell, long ago, provided information about this person — whom he met more than eight years ago, and whom he hasn’t seen in nearly six years — to the FBI. To protect information that might be classified, he will not participate in your story.” … Fang helped with a fundraiser for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) in 2013, according to a flyer from the event Fang shared on Facebook. She appeared in photos over multiple years with a host of California politicians, including Khanna, Swalwell, Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) and then- Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) . … She positioned herself “to be the connector between the Asian American community and members of Congress,” recalled a Bay Area political operative who knew her. … Read more: https://www.axios.com/china-spy-california-politicians-9d2dfb99-f839-4e00-8bd8-59dec0daf589.html
While serving on the House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Rep Eric Swalwell pushed hard for the acceptance of radical climate positions.
… One freshman on the Democratic side couldn’t resist adding his own brand of insults, aimed not at the witness but at his Republican colleagues. “I have to say that, frankly, Dr. Holdren, at this point you should be prepared to address whether the Earth is round or flat, or whether indeed gravity is happening. You just never know what could fly at you,” said Representative Eric Swalwell (D–CA), whose northern California district includes two Energy Department national laboratories. His scorn also took him far afield from the subject of the hearing. “And I have to say that, with 97% of scientists stating that climate change is manmade, I’m encouraged to see that some of my colleagues from across the aisle have given voice to the minority 3%,” Swalwell continued, his voice dripping with sarcasm. “This is encouraging for the other minorities that my colleagues across the aisle have not helped out, including immigrants waiting for comprehensive immigration reform, women who have not received equal pay for equal work, and those who are affected by changes in the Voting Rights Act.” … Read more: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/03/house-science-panel-hearing-sarcasm-rules
Swalwell currently serves on the House Intelligence Committee. Swalwell reportedly thinks the spy scandal story is President Trump’s fault.
It is difficult to know whether the alleged Chinese spy genuinely wanted to help radical green Democrat candidates like Swalwell, or whether she just used her fundraising efforts and other activities to stroke egos and gather information. And of course, there may be active Chinese spies working to infiltrate other parties just as hard as Fang allegedly worked a string of Democrat politicians.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Scientists ‘surprised’ that coral reefs survive heat waves and bleaching events

Researchers have discovered some corals can recover from bleaching even before a heat wave ends , suggesting they have the potential to survive long heat waves .
Just a few degrees of heat can “ bleach ” corals , putting them on a path to starvation and death .
Driven by climate change , marine heat waves are becoming one of the greatest threats to the existence of tropical reefs .
But in some rare good news , researchers have discovered some corals can recover from bleaching even before a heat wave ends , suggesting they have the potential to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gives us a pathway to coral recovery that we wouldn ’ t necessarily have imagined before , ” says Steve Palumbi , a marine ecologist at Stanford University who was not involved in the research .
In addition , the research suggests reducing water pollution and other stresses can make reefs more resilient to the shocks of climate change , says Nancy Knowlton , a coral reef biologist with the Smithsonian Institution ’ s National Museum of Natural History , who was also not involved .
Corals are colonies of millimeter-size , filter-feeding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contributes to the skeleton and houses photosynthetic algae .
In return , the microorganisms provide most of the polyp ’ s food .
In times of stress , particularly when the water gets too warm , the polyp ejects the algae , and the coral turns white , which is why the stressed state is called coral bleaching .
Once the water temperature returns to normal , any polyps that haven ’ t starved to death will host another alga .
Most corals were thought to survive only if a heat wave lasted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one had studied this process during a much longer heat wave .
Then in 2015 and 2016 , Julia Baum , a marine ecologist at the University of Victoria , had a front row seat to a very severe and prolonged bleaching event .
One year earlier , she and her students had begun a survey of reefs around Kiritimati in the central Pacific Ocean .
To track the fate of individual corals , they attached metal tags to two common species , called brain and star coral .
For these 141 corals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DNA sequencing .
They checked the condition of the corals and resampled their algae symbionts six more times as the heat wave struck and then waned .
Starting in May 2015 , the temperature rose about 1°C within 2 months .
As expected , corals that housed heat-sensitive algae bleached sooner than those that housed the heat-tolerant genus of algae .
And as the water continued to warm , even heat-tolerant algae were ejected .
Also , no surprise .
The “ jaw dropper ” on Kiritimati , Baum says , was that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bleaching while the water was still unusually warm .
Up until now , marine biologists had only seen bleached corals recover once water had cooled to its normal temperature .
The unexpected recovery on Kiritimati provides new hope , Baum says , “ because it means that even under prolonged heat waves , there ’ s a path forward for some of them.
” An unusual feature of the recovery is that brain coral that started out with heat-sensitive algae had a higher survival rate ( 82 % ) than coral that began @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the team reports today in Nature Communications .
That finding is surprising and “ superinteresting , ” says Madeleine Van Oppen , a coral geneticist at the University of Melbourne , who was not involved with the work .
The post Scientists ‘ surprised ’ that coral reefs survive heat waves and bleaching events appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Researchers have discovered some corals can recover from bleaching even before a heat wave ends, suggesting they have the potential to survive long heat waves.
Just a few degrees of heat can “bleach” corals, putting them on a path to starvation and death. Driven by climate change, marine heat waves are becoming one of the greatest threats to the existence of tropical reefs. But in some rare good news, researchers have discovered some corals can recover from bleaching even before a heat wave ends, suggesting they have the potential to survive long heat waves.
“That gives us a pathway to coral recovery that we wouldn’t necessarily have imagined before,” says Steve Palumbi, a marine ecologist at Stanford University who was not involved in the research. In addition, the research suggests reducing water pollution and other stresses can make reefs more resilient to the shocks of climate change, says Nancy Knowlton, a coral reef biologist with the Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History, who was also not involved.
Corals are colonies of millimeter-size, filter-feeding invertebrates. Each of these so-called polyps contributes to the skeleton and houses photosynthetic algae. In return, the microorganisms provide most of the polyp’s food. In times of stress, particularly when the water gets too warm, the polyp ejects the algae, and the coral turns white, which is why the stressed state is called coral bleaching. Once the water temperature returns to normal, any polyps that haven’t starved to death will host another alga. Most corals were thought to survive only if a heat wave lasted just a few weeks.
But no one had studied this process during a much longer heat wave. Then in 2015 and 2016, Julia Baum, a marine ecologist at the University of Victoria, had a front row seat to a very severe and prolonged bleaching event. One year earlier, she and her students had begun a survey of reefs around Kiritimati in the central Pacific Ocean. To track the fate of individual corals, they attached metal tags to two common species, called brain and star coral. For these 141 corals, they identified the symbiotic algae by DNA sequencing. They checked the condition of the corals and resampled their algae symbionts six more times as the heat wave struck and then waned.
Starting in May 2015, the temperature rose about 1°C within 2 months. As expected, corals that housed heat-sensitive algae bleached sooner than those that housed the heat-tolerant genus of algae. And as the water continued to warm, even heat-tolerant algae were ejected. Also, no surprise.
The “jaw dropper” on Kiritimati, Baum says, was that many brain and star corals recovered from bleaching while the water was still unusually warm. Up until now, marine biologists had only seen bleached corals recover once water had cooled to its normal temperature. The unexpected recovery on Kiritimati provides new hope, Baum says, “because it means that even under prolonged heat waves, there’s a path forward for some of them.”
An unusual feature of the recovery is that brain coral that started out with heat-sensitive algae had a higher survival rate (82%) than coral that began with heat-tolerant algae (25%), the team reports today in Nature Communications.
That finding is surprising and “superinteresting,” says Madeleine Van Oppen, a coral geneticist at the University of Melbourne, who was not involved with the work.
The post Scientists ‘surprised’ that coral reefs survive heat waves and bleaching events appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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December 9, 2020 at 03:40AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Energy Efficiency Policy Under Trump (Part II: EERE’s Process Rule & Overhaul)

In 1996 , EERE published a Process Rule for developing and issuing new or revised appliance efficiency standards and test procedures .
The generally useful initiative is embodied in the Code of Federal Regulations ( CFR ) under 10 CFR Appendix A to Subpart C of Part 430 .
The Process Rule has been treated by EERE as a guide ( think Barbossa and the Pirate code ) .
Among its original and retained objectives was ( ostensible ) regulatory transparency .
How well EERE followed ( or will follow ) its own rule to attain its objectives remains highly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are supposed to be accompanied by “ transparent and robust ” Technical Support Documentation .
These TSDs have excelled at robust ( if 1,000+ page counts are an indication ) , but they have failed miserably in terms of transparency ( as defined by independent subject matter experts being able to reasonably interpret and replicate EERE ’ s technical determinations ) .
EERE never considered its Process Rule as enforceable ( despite its CFR listing ) , so it arguably lacked judicial “ teeth.
” Per the last paragraph of the 1996 Process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , DOE published a Request for Information ( RFI ) titled Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs ( Docket DOE-HQ-2017-0016 ) .
It was in response to the following Executive Order ’ s ( EO ’ s ) An overhaul of the 1996 Process Rule was long overdue , and Trump ’ s deregulatory Executive Orders provided that opportunity .
Hopes were high that the new process rule would not be so burdensome and complicated .
In December of 2017 , the overhaul began .
EERE opened EERE-2017-BT-STD-0062 and requested comments regarding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The energy efficiency advocates ’ overall response was basically “ If it aint broke , don ’ t fix it.
” Industry ’ s response was that it was seriously broken and needed major fixing .
On February 13 , 2019 , EERE issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking ( NOPR ) .
Basically , neither side was satisfied ; this could be argued by EERE as a reasonable semblance of balance .
On February 14 , 2020 , EERE published a new Final Rule for its process rule overhaul .
True to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ press release .
For example : • DOE proposal to change how it sets efficiency standards creates new hurdles , advocates say NRDC ’ s lawsuit will be studied in Part III in this series tomorrow .
Meanwhile , EERE continues to implement its new Process Rule .
On August 19 , 2020 , EERE published as a Final Rule its Procedures for Evaluating Statutory Factors for Use in New or Revised Energy Conservation Standards .
Basically , what this provided was to add some modest refinement of what EPCA simply left open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among other improvements ) .
In so doing , however , EERE further triggered the energy efficiency advocates ’ disapproval of the Process Rule overhaul .
In the past , economic justification could be attained by simply providing , on average , cumulative energy savings that barely exceeded the additional costs of energy improvements over the life of the appliance .
The “ career professionals ” within EERE–its National Labs and subcontractors ( i.e.
, Navigant Consulting ) –have become very adept at gaming ( skewing ) the determinations in favor of more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trend continues virtually unabated .
On October 16 , 2020 , the NRDC initiated litigation as NRDC et .
al .
vs. Brouillette et .
al .
Basically , what NRDC seems to want from this appeal is to regain what they had under Obama : an even less minimally restrained EERE that is costly for industry to oppose but better assists EERE and its “ energy efficiency ” allies to “ determine ” what they deem is in energy consumers best interests .
MasterResource readers may recall an article that reviewed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hearing titled Hearing Summary : “ Wasted Energy : DOE ’ s Inaction on Efficiency Standards & Its Impact on Consumers and the Climate ” .
The article also summarized the vociferous complaints from the “ energy efficiency ” and “ beneficial electrification ” advocates ( one and the same ) about how EERE ( under Trump ) was kowtowing to industry .
According to a November 2019 Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) report , Department of Energy Appliance and Equipment Standards , the following changes are being made to the Process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , DOE proposed changes to the rulemaking procedures for standards and test procedures , or “ Process Rule.
” ( 84 Federal Register ( FR ) 3910 ) For standards , DOE would establish a “ threshold ” for energy saving that must be met to update or create a standard , among other changes .
The energy-saving “ threshold ” would require a standard to save 0.5 quadrillion Btu ( quads ) over 30 years or to save 10 % of the total site energy used by a product or equipment type @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 57 product/equipment standards that DOE set , the average national site energy savings is 0.96 quad , and the average percent reduction in national site energy use is 13 % .
Thirty-two of the 57 standards set by DOE would meet one of the proposed threshold conditions .
The proposed rule would also add a requirement that test procedures be established at least 180 days before a related standard .
Obscured behind the CRS uninspired and wonky review of EERE modest Process Rule improvements are some serious flaws ( aside from the ones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the most striking of these flaws was EERE ’ s decision to outsource peer review of EERE ’ s energy efficiency rulemaking processes to the National Academies of Sciences ( NAS ) .
Named Review of Methods for Setting Building and Equipment Performance Standards , it is right out of Ayn Rand ’ s State Science Institute of Atlas Shrugged .
What the gas industry asked for in the record of initially filed comments was public workshops to openly explore process rule reforms .
What was received was a “ peer review @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chosen panel and an NAS project management that drastically limited public participation .
This is verifiable by : • This link to NAS and then observing that almost all of 25 sessions ( so far ) have been closed • A ( so far unanswered ) letter to Assistant Secretary Simmons titled “ DOE Staff and Contractors in Apparent Violation of Process Established for Peer Review.
” Despite the claimed “ transparency ” objectives within EERE ’ s newly overhauled process rule .
“ the ( peer review ) fix was in.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extent of this until the NAS issues its final report .
Another serious flaw with EERE ’ s newly completed Process Rule is that EERE apparently intends to use “ national average energy prices ” for determining consumer impacts ” ( at page 8706 ) .
Such averages can and do drastically inflate consumer savings claims due to the improper inclusion of fixed charges ( like billing fees ) that don ’ t vary with reduced energy consumption .
After decades of giving lip service to the use of consumer marginal energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now confessed its preference for average energy costs .
To provide some insight into the ever-increasing complexity of these processes , on November 19 , 2019 EERE attempted to explain it all via their process overview presentation .
This presentation took the better part of the day and left a largely Doctorate-level peer review target audience admittedly bewildered .
No wonder , considering the following is just a fraction of the presentation ’ s numerous flowcharts : NOTE : Part I in this series yesterday examined the overall direction , some bright spots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy of the last four years .
Part III tomorrow examines ongoing litigation of EERE initiatives by the NRDC .
Mark Krebs , a mechanical engineer and energy policy analyst has been involved with energy efficiency design and program evaluation for more than thirty years .
He has served as an expert witness in dozens of State energy efficiency proceedings and submitted scores of Federal energy-efficiency filings .
Mark ’ s first article was in the Public Utilities Fortnightly titled “ It ’ s a War Out There : A Gas Man Questions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For more about by Mark , see his MasterResource archive .

“In the past, economic justification could be attained by simply providing, on average, cumulative energy savings that barely exceeded the additional costs of energy improvements over the life of the appliance. The “career professionals” within EERE–its National Labs and subcontractors–have become very adept at gaming (skewing) the determinations in favor of more regulations. Unfortunately for consumers, this trend continues virtually unabated.”
In 1996, EERE published a Process Rule for developing and issuing new or revised appliance efficiency standards and test procedures. The generally useful initiative is embodied in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) under 10 CFR Appendix A to Subpart C of Part 430.
The Process Rule has been treated by EERE as a guide (think Barbossa and the Pirate code). Among its original and retained objectives was (ostensible) regulatory transparency.
How well EERE followed (or will follow) its own rule to attain its objectives remains highly debatable. For example, EERE proposals are supposed to be accompanied by “transparent and robust” Technical Support Documentation. These TSDs have excelled at robust (if 1,000+ page counts are an indication), but they have failed miserably in terms of transparency (as defined by independent subject matter experts being able to reasonably interpret and replicate EERE’s technical determinations).
EERE never considered its Process Rule as enforceable (despite its CFR listing), so it arguably lacked judicial “teeth.” Per the last paragraph of the 1996 Process Rule:
(c) Judicial review. The procedures, interpretations, and policies stated in this appendix are not intended to establish any new cause of action or right to judicial review. [emphasis added]
RFI on Reducing Regulation, Controlling Regulatory Costs
On May 29, 2017, DOE published a Request for Information (RFI) titled Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs (Docket DOE-HQ-2017-0016). It was in response to the following Executive Order’s (EO’s)
EO 13771 titled ‘‘Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs,’’ (January 30, 2017) EO 13777 titled ‘‘Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda,’’ (February 24, 2017) EO 13783 titled ‘‘Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth” (March 28, 2017)
An overhaul of the 1996 Process Rule was long overdue, and Trump’s deregulatory Executive Orders provided that opportunity. Hopes were high that the new process rule would not be so burdensome and complicated.
In December of 2017, the overhaul began. EERE opened EERE-2017-BT-STD-0062 and requested comments regarding the need to overhaul its Process Rule. The energy efficiency advocates’ overall response was basically “If it aint broke, don’t fix it.” Industry’s response was that it was seriously broken and needed major fixing.
On February 13, 2019, EERE issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR). Basically, neither side was satisfied; this could be argued by EERE as a reasonable semblance of balance.
On February 14, 2020, EERE published a new Final Rule for its process rule overhaul. True to form, NRDC cried foul via a press release. For example:
NRDC’s lawsuit will be studied in Part III in this series tomorrow.
Process Rule Implementation
Meanwhile, EERE continues to implement its new Process Rule. On August 19, 2020, EERE published as a Final Rule its Procedures for Evaluating Statutory Factors for Use in New or Revised Energy Conservation Standards. Basically, what this provided was to add some modest refinement of what EPCA simply left open as to what constitutes economic justification (among other improvements). In so doing, however, EERE further triggered the energy efficiency advocates’ disapproval of the Process Rule overhaul.
In the past, economic justification could be attained by simply providing, on average, cumulative energy savings that barely exceeded the additional costs of energy improvements over the life of the appliance. The “career professionals” within EERE–its National Labs and subcontractors (i.e., Navigant Consulting)–have become very adept at gaming (skewing) the determinations in favor of more regulations. Unfortunately for consumers, this trend continues virtually unabated.
On October 16, 2020, the NRDC initiated litigation as NRDC et. al. vs. Brouillette et. al. Basically, what NRDC seems to want from this appeal is to regain what they had under Obama: an even less minimally restrained EERE that is costly for industry to oppose but better assists EERE and its “energy efficiency” allies to “determine” what they deem is in energy consumers best interests.
MasterResource readers may recall an article that reviewed a recent House Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing titled Hearing Summary: “Wasted Energy: DOE’s Inaction on Efficiency Standards & Its Impact on Consumers and the Climate”. The article also summarized the vociferous complaints from the “energy efficiency” and “beneficial electrification” advocates (one and the same) about how EERE (under Trump) was kowtowing to industry.
According to a November 2019 Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, Department of Energy Appliance and Equipment Standards, the following changes are being made to the Process Rule:
On February 13, 2019, DOE proposed changes to the rulemaking procedures for standards and test procedures, or “Process Rule.” (84 Federal Register (FR) 3910) For standards, DOE would establish a “threshold” for energy saving that must be met to update or create a standard, among other changes. The energy-saving “threshold” would require a standard to save 0.5 quadrillion Btu (quads) over 30 years or to save 10% of the total site energy used by a product or equipment type. According to DOE, of the 57 product/equipment standards that DOE set, the average national site energy savings is 0.96 quad, and the average percent reduction in national site energy use is 13%. Thirty-two of the 57 standards set by DOE would meet one of the proposed threshold conditions. The proposed rule would also add a requirement that test procedures be established at least 180 days before a related standard.
Obscured behind the CRS uninspired and wonky review of EERE modest Process Rule improvements are some serious flaws (aside from the ones that the NRDC claims). One of the most striking of these flaws was EERE’s decision to outsource peer review of EERE’s energy efficiency rulemaking processes to the National Academies of Sciences (NAS). Named Review of Methods for Setting Building and Equipment Performance Standards, it is right out of Ayn Rand’s State Science Institute of Atlas Shrugged.
Gas Industry Protest
What the gas industry asked for in the record of initially filed comments was public workshops to openly explore process rule reforms. What was received was a “peer review” that was limited to an EERE chosen panel and an NAS project management that drastically limited public participation. This is verifiable by:
This link to NAS and then observing that almost all of 25 sessions (so far) have been closed A (so far unanswered) letter to Assistant Secretary Simmons titled “DOE Staff and Contractors in Apparent Violation of Process Established for Peer Review.”
Despite the claimed “transparency” objectives within EERE’s newly overhauled process rule. “the (peer review) fix was in.” However, we won’t know the extent of this until the NAS issues its final report.
Problems Remain
Another serious flaw with EERE’s newly completed Process Rule is that EERE apparently intends to use “national average energy prices” for determining consumer impacts” (at page 8706). Such averages can and do drastically inflate consumer savings claims due to the improper inclusion of fixed charges (like billing fees) that don’t vary with reduced energy consumption. After decades of giving lip service to the use of consumer marginal energy rates (CMER), EERE has now confessed its preference for average energy costs.
To provide some insight into the ever-increasing complexity of these processes, on November 19, 2019 EERE attempted to explain it all via their process overview presentation. This presentation took the better part of the day and left a largely Doctorate-level peer review target audience admittedly bewildered. No wonder, considering the following is just a fraction of the presentation’s numerous flowcharts:
NOTE: Part I in this series yesterday examined the overall direction, some bright spots, and disappointments of government energy efficiency policy of the last four years. Part III tomorrow examines ongoing litigation of EERE initiatives by the NRDC.
Mark Krebs, a mechanical engineer and energy policy analyst has been involved with energy efficiency design and program evaluation for more than thirty years. He has served as an expert witness in dozens of State energy efficiency proceedings and submitted scores of Federal energy-efficiency filings. Mark’s first article was in the Public Utilities Fortnightly titled “It’s a War Out There: A Gas Man Questions Electric Efficiency” (December 1996). For more about by Mark, see his MasterResource archive.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Turbines Tumble: Another 230 Metre, 300 Tonne Whirling Wonder Bites the Dust

Throwing their blades to the four winds , spontaneously combusting and collapsing in catastrophic fashion is what wind turbines do best .
Remember , this is the power source that promises a clean , ‘ green ’ future !
And that rural communities just can ’ t wait have hundreds of these things speared into their backyards .
Except , of course , if those backyards belong to former Greens leaders , like Dr Bob Brown .
This time the chaos being delivered by the wind industry is in Swedenl , and not for the first time … .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wind Systems A/S collapsed at a site in northern Sweden over the weekend .
The cause of the accident is unknown and the company is assembling a team that will investigate at the site , spokesman Anders Riis said on Monday by phone .
A lot of snow is expected this week , which may delay the work , he said .
No one was injured in the incident .
“ Today , even risk-averse institutional investors see onshore wind farms as a safe asset class , particularly in established markets like Sweden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ onshore wind analyst at BloombegNEF in London .
“ News like this proves that it is impossible to completely eliminate construction risk , even as the industry matures.
” The 4.2-megawatt Vestas V150 turbine , among the biggest onshore facilities in the world , was one of 17 at Aldermyrberget built by developer WPD Scandinavia AB .
The facility was due to start operations next month , according to information on its website .
Some of the turbines have already been sending power to the grid .
Vestas has installed more than 75,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rare ” that accidents like this happen , Riis said .
“ We have a very comprehensive investigation process for incidents like this and we initiated that yesterday , ” he said .
“ Now we will start collecting information and get the right people to the site.
” Investment in the wind park is probably in the region of $ 90 million , Metcalfe estimated .
The power has already been sold via a long-term contract to a large industrial company in Sweden .
WPD Chief Executive Officer Maria Roske didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She told state broadcaster SVT that it was a very unusual accident and that it will impact the timeline for the project .
Five years ago , one of Vestas ’ s turbines collapsed at a cite called Lemnhult , also in Sweden .
The cause was found to be a lack of correct tensioning of bolts .
Vesta ’ s spin doctor reckons that “ it ’ s “ extremely rare ” that accidents like this happen ” and the wind power outfit ’ s PR team claims that ‘ it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their benefit and yours here are a few more of those “ extremely rare ” events : With gravity one of nature ’ s constants , wind farm neighbours can hardly rest assured .
Expect more of the same .
Then there is the ‘ minor ’ issue of ‘ component liberation ’ .
Turbine blade failures , including events where 10-15 tonne blades are thrown to the 4 winds are so common that we have considered running a separate site dedicated to their aerial escapades – here ’ s a few to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ captions are linked to the stories behind the pictures ) : Now that those who are forced to travel past , live with and work near these things know how exceptional it is for 10-20 tonne blades to be thrown to the 4 winds ; how unlikely it is for 60-90 tonne rotors or 80-120 tonne nacelles to drop 90-140m from the heavens ; and how rare it is for an entire 200-230m high , 300 tonne turbine to plummet to Earth , we expect you feel a whole lot safer .
No @ @ @ @ @ @ @ !

Throwing their blades to the four winds, spontaneously combusting and collapsing in catastrophic fashion is what wind turbines do best.
Remember, this is the power source that promises a clean, ‘green’ future! And that rural communities just can’t wait have hundreds of these things speared into their backyards. Except, of course, if those backyards belong to former Greens leaders, like Dr Bob Brown.
This time the chaos being delivered by the wind industry is in Swedenl, and not for the first time ….
Giant Vestas wind turbine collapses in northern Sweden
Bloomberg
Lars Paulsson
23 November 2020
A 230-meter tall wind turbine built by Vestas Wind Systems A/S collapsed at a site in northern Sweden over the weekend.
The cause of the accident is unknown and the company is assembling a team that will investigate at the site, spokesman Anders Riis said on Monday by phone. A lot of snow is expected this week, which may delay the work, he said. No one was injured in the incident.
“Today, even risk-averse institutional investors see onshore wind farms as a safe asset class, particularly in established markets like Sweden,” said Oliver Metcalfe, an onshore wind analyst at BloombegNEF in London. “News like this proves that it is impossible to completely eliminate construction risk, even as the industry matures.”
The 4.2-megawatt Vestas V150 turbine, among the biggest onshore facilities in the world , was one of 17 at Aldermyrberget built by developer WPD Scandinavia AB. The facility was due to start operations next month, according to information on its website. Some of the turbines have already been sending power to the grid.
Vestas has installed more than 75,000 turbines and it’s “extremely rare” that accidents like this happen, Riis said.
“We have a very comprehensive investigation process for incidents like this and we initiated that yesterday,” he said. “Now we will start collecting information and get the right people to the site.”
Investment in the wind park is probably in the region of $90 million, Metcalfe estimated. The power has already been sold via a long-term contract to a large industrial company in Sweden.
WPD Chief Executive Officer Maria Roske didn’t respond to requests for comment. She told state broadcaster SVT that it was a very unusual accident and that it will impact the timeline for the project.
Five years ago, one of Vestas’s turbines collapsed at a cite called Lemnhult, also in Sweden. The cause was found to be a lack of correct tensioning of bolts.
Vestas shares fell 1.3% in Copenhagen.
Bloomberg
Vesta’s spin doctor reckons that “it’s “extremely rare” that accidents like this happen” and the wind power outfit’s PR team claims that ‘it was a very unusual accident”.
For their benefit and yours here are a few more of those “extremely rare” events:
With gravity one of nature’s constants, wind farm neighbours can hardly rest assured. Expect more of the same.
Then there is the ‘minor’ issue of ‘component liberation’.
Turbine blade failures, including events where 10-15 tonne blades are thrown to the 4 winds are so common that we have considered running a separate site dedicated to their aerial escapades – here’s a few to whet your appetite for destruction (the captions are linked to the stories behind the pictures):
Now that those who are forced to travel past, live with and work near these things know how exceptional it is for 10-20 tonne blades to be thrown to the 4 winds; how unlikely it is for 60-90 tonne rotors or 80-120 tonne nacelles to drop 90-140m from the heavens; and how rare it is for an entire 200-230m high, 300 tonne turbine to plummet to Earth, we expect you feel a whole lot safer. No?
Welcome to your wind powered future!