iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--On Mars or Earth, biohybrid can turn carbon dioxide into new products

Bacteria on nanowires convert sunlight , carbon dioxide and water to organic building blocks If humans ever hope to colonize Mars , the settlers will need to manufacture on-planet a huge range of organic compounds , from fuels to drugs , that are too expensive to ship from Earth .
University of California , Berkeley , and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ( Berkeley Lab ) chemists have a plan for that .
For the past eight years , the researchers have been working on a hybrid system combining bacteria and nanowires that can capture the energy of sunlight to convert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for organic molecules .
Nanowires are thin silicon wires about one-hundredth the width of a human hair , used as electronic components , and also as sensors and solar cells .
“ On Mars , about 96 % of the atmosphere is CO2 .
Basically , all you need is these silicon semiconductor nanowires to take in the solar energy and pass it on to these bugs to do the chemistry for you , ” said project leader Peidong Yang , professor of chemistry and the S. K. and Angela Chan Distinguished Chair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For a deep space mission , you care about the payload weight , and biological systems have the advantage that they self-reproduce : You don ’ t need to send a lot .
That ’ s why our biohybrid version is highly attractive.
” The only other requirement , besides sunlight , is water , which on Mars is relatively abundant in the polar ice caps and likely lies frozen underground over most of the planet , said Yang , who is a senior faculty scientist at Berkeley Lab and director of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can also pull carbon dioxide from the air on Earth to make organic compounds and simultaneously address climate change , which is caused by an excess of human-produced CO2 in the atmosphere .
In a new paper to be published March 31 in the journal Joule , the researchers report a milestone in packing these bacteria ( Sporomusa ovata ) into a “ forest of nanowires ” to achieve a record efficiency : 3.6 % of the incoming solar energy is converted and stored in carbon bonds , in the form of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acid , or vinegar .
Acetate molecules can serve as building blocks for a range of organic molecules , from fuels and plastics to drugs .
Many other organic products could be made from acetate inside genetically engineered organisms , such as bacteria or yeast .
The system works like photosynthesis , which plants naturally employ to convert carbon dioxide and water to carbon compounds , mostly sugar and carbohydrates .
Plants , however , have a fairly low efficiency , typically converting less than one-half percent of solar energy to carbon compounds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the plant that best converts CO2 to sugar : sugar cane , which is 4-5 % efficient .
Yang is also working on systems to efficiently produce sugars and carbohydrates from sunlight and CO2 , potentially providing food for Mars colonists .
When Yang and his colleagues first demonstrated their nanowire-bacteria hybrid reactor five years ago , the solar conversion efficiency was only about 0.4 % — comparable to plants , but still low compared to typical efficiencies of 20 % or more for silicon solar panels that convert light to electricity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to turn nanowires into solar panels , some 15 years ago .
The researchers initially tried to increase the efficiency by packing more bacteria onto the nanowires , which transfer electrons directly to the bacteria for the chemical reaction .
But the bacteria separated from the nanowires , breaking the circuit .
The researchers eventually discovered that the bugs , as they produced acetate , decreased the acidity of the surrounding water — that is , increased a measurement called pH — and made them detach from the nanowires .
He and his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the water slightly more acidic to counteract the effect of rising pH as a result of continuous acetate production .
This allowed them to pack many more bacteria into the nanowire forest , upping the efficiency nearly by a factor of 10 .
They were able to operate the reactor , a forest of parallel nanowires , for a week without the bacteria peeling off .
In this particular experiment , the nanowires were used only as conductive wires , not as solar absorbers .
An external solar panel provided the energy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nanowires would absorb light , generate electrons and transport them to the bacteria glommed onto the nanowires .
The bacteria take in the electrons and , similar to the way plants make sugars , convert two carbon dioxide molecules and water into acetate and oxygen .
“ These silicon nanowires are essentially like an antenna : They capture the solar photon just like a solar panel , ” Yang said .
“ Within these silicon nanowires , they will generate electrons and feed them to these bacteria .
Then the bacteria absorb @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out acetate.
” The oxygen is a side benefit and , on Mars , could replenish colonists ’ artificial atmosphere , which would mimic Earth ’ s 21 % oxygen environment .
Yang has tweaked the system in other ways — for example , to embed quantum dots in the bacteria ’ s own membrane that act as solar panels , absorbing sunlight and obviating the need for silicon nanowires .
These cyborg bacteria also make acetic acid .
His lab continues to search for ways to up the efficiency of the biohybrid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ genetically engineering the bacteria to make them more versatile and capable of producing a variety of organic compounds .
The research is supported by a grant from NASA to the Center for the Utilization of Biological Engineering in Space ( CUBES ) , a multi-university effort to develop techniques for biomanufacturing in space .
UC Berkeley co-authors of the paper are current or former graduate students Yude Su , Stefano Cestellos-Blanco and Ji Min Kim , who contributed equally to the work ; and graduate students Yue-xiao Shen , Qiao Kong , Dylan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Yuhong Cao .

Bacteria on nanowires convert sunlight, carbon dioxide and water to organic building blocks
University of California – Berkeley
If humans ever hope to colonize Mars, the settlers will need to manufacture on-planet a huge range of organic compounds, from fuels to drugs, that are too expensive to ship from Earth.
University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) chemists have a plan for that.
For the past eight years, the researchers have been working on a hybrid system combining bacteria and nanowires that can capture the energy of sunlight to convert carbon dioxide and water into building blocks for organic molecules. Nanowires are thin silicon wires about one-hundredth the width of a human hair, used as electronic components, and also as sensors and solar cells.
“On Mars, about 96% of the atmosphere is CO2. Basically, all you need is these silicon semiconductor nanowires to take in the solar energy and pass it on to these bugs to do the chemistry for you,” said project leader Peidong Yang, professor of chemistry and the S. K. and Angela Chan Distinguished Chair in Energy at UC Berkeley. “For a deep space mission, you care about the payload weight, and biological systems have the advantage that they self-reproduce: You don’t need to send a lot. That’s why our biohybrid version is highly attractive.”
The only other requirement, besides sunlight, is water, which on Mars is relatively abundant in the polar ice caps and likely lies frozen underground over most of the planet, said Yang, who is a senior faculty scientist at Berkeley Lab and director of the Kavli Energy Nanoscience Institute.
The biohybrid can also pull carbon dioxide from the air on Earth to make organic compounds and simultaneously address climate change, which is caused by an excess of human-produced CO2 in the atmosphere.
In a new paper to be published March 31 in the journal Joule, the researchers report a milestone in packing these bacteria (Sporomusa ovata) into a “forest of nanowires” to achieve a record efficiency: 3.6% of the incoming solar energy is converted and stored in carbon bonds, in the form of a two-carbon molecule called acetate: essentially acetic acid, or vinegar.
Acetate molecules can serve as building blocks for a range of organic molecules, from fuels and plastics to drugs. Many other organic products could be made from acetate inside genetically engineered organisms, such as bacteria or yeast.
The system works like photosynthesis, which plants naturally employ to convert carbon dioxide and water to carbon compounds, mostly sugar and carbohydrates. Plants, however, have a fairly low efficiency, typically converting less than one-half percent of solar energy to carbon compounds. Yang’s system is comparable to the plant that best converts CO2 to sugar: sugar cane, which is 4-5% efficient.
Yang is also working on systems to efficiently produce sugars and carbohydrates from sunlight and CO2, potentially providing food for Mars colonists.
Watch the pH
When Yang and his colleagues first demonstrated their nanowire-bacteria hybrid reactor five years ago, the solar conversion efficiency was only about 0.4% — comparable to plants, but still low compared to typical efficiencies of 20% or more for silicon solar panels that convert light to electricity. Yang was one of the first to turn nanowires into solar panels, some 15 years ago.
The researchers initially tried to increase the efficiency by packing more bacteria onto the nanowires, which transfer electrons directly to the bacteria for the chemical reaction. But the bacteria separated from the nanowires, breaking the circuit.
The researchers eventually discovered that the bugs, as they produced acetate, decreased the acidity of the surrounding water — that is, increased a measurement called pH — and made them detach from the nanowires. He and his students eventually found a way to keep the water slightly more acidic to counteract the effect of rising pH as a result of continuous acetate production. This allowed them to pack many more bacteria into the nanowire forest, upping the efficiency nearly by a factor of 10. They were able to operate the reactor, a forest of parallel nanowires, for a week without the bacteria peeling off.
In this particular experiment, the nanowires were used only as conductive wires, not as solar absorbers. An external solar panel provided the energy.
In a real-world system, however, the nanowires would absorb light, generate electrons and transport them to the bacteria glommed onto the nanowires. The bacteria take in the electrons and, similar to the way plants make sugars, convert two carbon dioxide molecules and water into acetate and oxygen.
“These silicon nanowires are essentially like an antenna: They capture the solar photon just like a solar panel,” Yang said. “Within these silicon nanowires, they will generate electrons and feed them to these bacteria. Then the bacteria absorb CO2, do the chemistry and spit out acetate.”
The oxygen is a side benefit and, on Mars, could replenish colonists’ artificial atmosphere, which would mimic Earth’s 21% oxygen environment.
Yang has tweaked the system in other ways — for example, to embed quantum dots in the bacteria’s own membrane that act as solar panels, absorbing sunlight and obviating the need for silicon nanowires. These cyborg bacteria also make acetic acid.
His lab continues to search for ways to up the efficiency of the biohybrid, and is also exploring techniques for genetically engineering the bacteria to make them more versatile and capable of producing a variety of organic compounds.
###
The research is supported by a grant from NASA to the Center for the Utilization of Biological Engineering in Space (CUBES), a multi-university effort to develop techniques for biomanufacturing in space.
UC Berkeley co-authors of the paper are current or former graduate students Yude Su, Stefano Cestellos-Blanco and Ji Min Kim, who contributed equally to the work; and graduate students Yue-xiao Shen, Qiao Kong, Dylan Lu, Chong Liu, Hao Zhang and Yuhong Cao.
From EurekAlert!


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Obama Ties the Covid-19 Pandemic to Trump’s Rollback of His Climate Change Initiatives

Shameless attempt by former President Obama to score political points from the misery of ordinary Americans .
The article referenced by President Obama ’ s tweet was about President Trump rolling back Obama ’ s economy killing regulations – at a time when the economy needs all the help it can get .
The Trump administration on Tuesday weakened one of the nation ’ s most aggressive efforts to combat climate change , releasing new fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks that handed a victory to the oil and gas industry .
The new rule , from the Environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost immediately be plunged into litigation as environmental groups and states with stricter standards , led by California , plan to challenge it .
“ We intend to make sure the backsliding doesn ’ t reach California ’ s doorstep , ” California Atty .
Gen. Xavier Becerra said Tuesday in announcing the state ’ s plan to go to court to defend its tougher standards .
If the administration ’ s policy survives those fights , it would spare automakers from having to meet ambitious gas mileage and emissions requirements put in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is among the biggest steps the administration has taken to reverse an existing environmental policy .
The final rule is a dialed-down version of the one the administration originally planned .
Instead of proposing zero improvements in fuel efficiency in coming years , it would require automakers to increase fuel economy across their fleets by 1.5 % a year , with a goal of achieving an average of about 40 miles per gallon by 2026 .
That ’ s still a major departure from current rules , which mandate annual increases of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 54 mpg by 2025 .
Karl Brauer , an analyst for the research firm Cox Automotive , said that Trump ’ s rule had put automakers in an impossible position .
If they opposed the rollback , their investors would be unhappy .
If they endorsed it , they would be branded as anti-environment .
Can you imagine what it would have been like if the Chinese Coronavirus had struck during the Obama Presidency ?
President Obama would probably have responded to the threat of Coronavirus with an executive order to increase wind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stick in her version of the Coronavirus bill .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Shameless attempt by former President Obama to score political points from the misery of ordinary Americans.
We’ve seen all too terribly the consequences of those who denied warnings of a pandemic. We can’t afford any more consequences of climate denial. All of us, especially young people, have to demand better of our government at every level and vote this fall. https://t.co/K8Ucu7iVDK — Barack Obama (@BarackObama) March 31, 2020
The article referenced by President Obama’s tweet was about President Trump rolling back Obama’s economy killing regulations – at a time when the economy needs all the help it can get.
Trump weakens fuel economy standards, rolling back key U.S. effort against climate change By ANNA M. PHILLIPS, RUSS MITCHELLMARCH 31, 20202:12 PMWASHINGTON — The Trump administration on Tuesday weakened one of the nation’s most aggressive efforts to combat climate change, releasing new fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks that handed a victory to the oil and gas industry. The new rule, from the Environmental Protection Agency and Transportation Department, will almost immediately be plunged into litigation as environmental groups and states with stricter standards, led by California, plan to challenge it. “We intend to make sure the backsliding doesn’t reach California’s doorstep,” California Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra said Tuesday in announcing the state’s plan to go to court to defend its tougher standards. If the administration’s policy survives those fights, it would spare automakers from having to meet ambitious gas mileage and emissions requirements put in place in 2012 under President Obama. It is among the biggest steps the administration has taken to reverse an existing environmental policy. The final rule is a dialed-down version of the one the administration originally planned. Instead of proposing zero improvements in fuel efficiency in coming years, it would require automakers to increase fuel economy across their fleets by 1.5% a year, with a goal of achieving an average of about 40 miles per gallon by 2026. That’s still a major departure from current rules, which mandate annual increases of 5%, reaching an average of 54 mpg by 2025. … Karl Brauer, an analyst for the research firm Cox Automotive, said that Trump’s rule had put automakers in an impossible position. If they opposed the rollback, their investors would be unhappy. If they endorsed it, they would be branded as anti-environment. … Read more: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-31/trump-rolls-back-fuel-economy-standards
Can you imagine what it would have been like if the Chinese Coronavirus had struck during the Obama Presidency? President Obama would probably have responded to the threat of Coronavirus with an executive order to increase wind turbine funding, like Nancy Pelosi tried to stick in her version of the Coronavirus bill.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Photosynthesis Does NOT Threaten Earth

Photosynthesis Does NOT Threaten Earth

• Explain alarm is not respectful of photosynthesis , nor honest science Because climate alarm is born of politics , it is apt to begin with a campaign update .
Campaign 2020 : During TV coverage prior to February ’ s Superbowl , the President showed why he is an effective agent of change .
Trump said : Senator Sanders is a communist .
Jarred awake , by the leader of the Free World no less , my mind became more active .
Why did Bernie favor Iranian revolutionaries over US hostages , during 1979 ?
Same reason Crazy Bernie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cuba ’ s Fidel Castro and the cruel mess that is Venezuela , authored by Chavez and Maduro .
Sanders supports socialism/communism , even more overtly than former President Obama .
Trump ’ s statement about Sanders triggered thought .
No Dem candidates saluted Trump for ridding the world of terror monster Solemani .
In debates , candidates praised evolutionary change , in contrast to revolutionary , attributed to Crazy Bernie .
Why did Comrade Obama and Comrade Kerry supply billions of dollars to Iran during 2015 ?
Because like John Brennan , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1984 ’ s election , Dems embrace the “ Death to America ” theocracy of Iran .
Dems want “ fundamental ” socio-economic change via their absurd Green New Deal proposal , unanimously rejected by the Senate .
This would jettison a tradition of decentralized power , built on checks and balances , private property rights , economic freedoms , and protections against oppression .
Dems aim to replace the private sector , with impoverishing Big Government .
It is surreal , like a low brow movie plot .
Socialists aim to erode @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , insidiously , from the inside .
They chide Bernie for impatient revolution , rather than seeking the same results via patience .
Fast or slow , if the goals are the same , they Comrades all sound treasonous .
With clarity of hindsight , should we be surprised Brennan steered US intelligence agencies to spy on candidate Trump via illegally constructed FISA-court authorizations ?
No .
Obama was a socialist , recognized in Dinesh D ’ Souza ’ s 2012 film , Obama ’ s America .
A great recession and unpopular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House , shrouded in affability and protected by lapdog reporters .
Obama embraced climate alarm .
Former USEPA head Carol Browner , tsar for climate , belonged to Socialist International , a global network of “ democratic socialism.
” This was divulged by the Competitive Enterprise Institute , 11 years ago .
It seems reasonable to assume every climate advocate is socialist .
Climate science must be the contemporary pseudo-scientific equivalent of eugenics that justified genocide directed by Crazy Adolf .
It would behoove sensible voters to examine climate alarmism carefully , to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as honest science .
The Dems let Comrade Bernie campaign among them during 2016 and 2020 .
After Trump forthrightly disclosed Bernie is a communist , the Dems rushed to consolidate behind Sleepy Joe .
Biden is flawed in multiple respects , so may serve temporarily to hide Bernie ’ s lunatic agenda , including re-education camps for Trump supporters , according to his campaign workers , recorded by Project Veritas .
Incarceration for brainwashing is evil , illustrated by Pol Pot ’ s Cambodia , communist China to this day , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other instances .
Dem candidates march in lock-step support for climate alarm , toeing the party line .
The hoax seems an ideological cornerstone , though its credibility expired long ago .
Nor did any candidate laud Solemani ’ s demise , another display of uniformity .
During 2016 , Republican candidates heatedly debated tariffs , immigration , use of military force , and other topics .
In 2020 , Dems debate petty variations about shared views .
No Dem disputed climate change though it does not exist .
Whereas Republican candidates jousted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe .
This contrast is troubling .
It is hard to imagine American citizens benefit from open borders , sanctuary cities , stipends for illegals .
Dems hint illegals will replace Americans , as if this wins votes .
Open borders help despicable drug and human trafficking .
Religious faith is disparaged .
Obama was guided by Valerie Jarrett , born in Iran .
Hillary was assisted by Huma Abedin , raised in Saudi Arabia .
The closeness of these advisors may have been marketing to Muslims .
Dems whine when Trump attributes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brethren running China .
Some applaud the decline in the US stock market , as if Americans should vote Dem for a bleak economic outlook .
Dems are impoverished for positive ideas for American citizens , leaving only fears .
They allege Trump is a communist , pawn of Putin .
Trump should be impeached on faux evidentiary grounds .
Americans will be wiped out by a tidal wave of Wuhan flu , so need to cower in place , while the economy dies .
Fear and corrupt news are not what made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the United Nations Environment Program ( UNEP ) convene meetings and reports , over decades , yet still get climate science utterly wrong ?
This mystery is easy to understand .
Climate alarm serves socialists .
The UN contains circa 190 nations .
Most do not hold fair elections .
Many embrace socialist ideologies .
Or , are headed by a ruler with little checked power .
If a foreign nation has coal , petroleum , or gas deposits , these are often owned by the government , not by a private firm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alarm is a UN-supplied cover story to justify taxation or confiscation of hydrocarbon deposits .
This cover story serves to normalize political control over valuable energy supplies in foreign nations .
Subsurface private ownership rights do not even exist in many countries .
UNEP often favors nations opposed to the US as regards energy markets , because they are the majority of UN members .
For instance , the US is not a member of the petroleum price-fixing alliance , OPEC ( Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ) .
Price fixing is illegal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first President to call climate alarm “ BS.
” Like Senator Inhofe from Oklahoma , Trump is correct , unpersuaded by UNEP fairy tales .
Rigged UNEP climate science has for decades been applauded by the New York Times and other leftists .
It is easy to understand why UNEP claims climate is threatened by CO2 .
It comes down to money and political power .
The UN opinion was chosen by foreign governments , on self-interested grounds , which do not include scientific validity .
Trump realizes the UN is unfair to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he withdrew from the UNEP climate process beloved by Germany ’ s Comrade Merkel , France ’ s Macron , and Communist China .
Germany and China have even increased CO2 emissions .
Happily , these increased emissions are not an environmental problem , because carbon dioxide gas enables life on Earth .
Temperature effects from gaseous CO2 are 0.000 degrees .
Zilch .
To protect our skin against damaging rays from the Sun , we apply protective Sunscreen , not CO2 screen .
We emit CO2 ourselves , with each exhale .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the entire planet .
Unleashed by Trump , the US has become the largest supplier of oil and natural gas , over-taking Saudi Arabia .
Until 2018 , federal law prevented US export of oil .
Two years later , US exports have dented oil ’ s price .
Trump dealt an effective blow to OPEC prices , unmentioned by southpaw media .
Honest science : there are many persuasive ways to reject the hypothesis of climate change , because the mythical condition is not happening , out in the real world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of science : • The inseparability of oxygen and carbon dioxide At the center of our solar system , the Sun emits light and heat , strongly influencing temperature .
The third planet , Earth , is 4.54 billion years old .
Its earliest life forms were single-celled bacteria that harnessed sunlight , water ( H2O ) , and carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) gas , to enable photosynthesis .
This reaction nourished the cell , while supplying oxygen ( O2 ) to the atmosphere .
Early in Earth ’ s history , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 1 percent ) .
Billions of years of photosynthesis have endowed the atmosphere to 22 percent .
Thru ( Darwin ’ s ) evolution of species , over immense time periods , the original cell evolved into a wondrous cornucopia of complex plants , moving onto land , putting down roots .
To this very day , all greenery continues to depend on harnessing solar energy , CO2 , and water , via photosynthesis .
Plants , in turn , provide foods for grazing animals and agriculture .
In this way , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , directly or indirectly .
The wondrous fecundity of our Biosphere owes to the reaction of sunlight , water , and carbon dioxide .
We inhale oxygen with each breath , employ oxygen within our bodies , and exhale CO2 .
In the atmosphere , O2 and CO2 are inseparable throughthe intermediation of plants .
CO2 is turned , by plants , into oxygen .
Of these two gases , oxygen builds up in the atmosphere , while CO2 is swiftly used by plants , so its atmospheric levels are much lower .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sunlight and heat , plus Earth ’ s angle and distance to the Sun .
Could oxygen cause “ global warming ” ?
No .
Does oxygen ’ s inseparable partner , CO2 , warm the planet ?
CO2 created all plants and through them oxygen as well .
To socialists , CO2 is further supposed to disrupt climate , so massively that we must upend our economic system at unspeakable expense .
This is absurd and pernicious .
The only reliably known function of atmospheric CO2 is to change into oxygen , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without end , from one molecule to the other .
CO2 does not change climate .
Rather CO2 enables plants and oxygen , in short , Life on Earth .
Yet socialists want you to believe CO2 – which makes flowers bloom — is also making oceans rise and islands disappear , though they can not identify any sunk islands .
Or they claim CO2 is melting the ice caps .
Photosynthesis has enabled the third planet to teem with life , unknown elsewhere in the universe , to our knowledge .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Al Gore , Comrade Obama , and their friends , CO2 is also responsible for dangerous changes to Earth ’ s climate .
According to such socialists , CO2 is dangerous to the very life it has empowered , for more than four billion years .
This is hard to accept .
The next thing you know , socialists will claim men can bear children !
Wait , some already do claim this .
Consider climate alarm as absurd as men believing they can bear children .
The same political party supports both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
The climate hoax could be funny , if they were not seeking $ 90T dollars for their Green New Deal .
Photosynthesis does not threaten Earth ’ s climate .
It merely allows trees to grow and flowers to bloom , while US socialists fulminate nonsense .
Climate alarm depends partly on corrupt media endorsing the hoax to those who know no better .
It also depends on a common psychological yearning among socialist rank and file to fit into a tribe or community of the like-minded .
Closing : Wikipedia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 scientists , across four centuries , who have contributed to understanding this essential reaction that relies on carbon dioxide gas , water , and sunlight .
Photosynthesis transformed Earth into a Biosphere .
The concept of a Biosphere owes to Vladimir Verdansky ( 1863-1945 ) , founder of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences .
Charles Darwin ( 1809-1882 ) is renowned for insight that changes during reproduction lead to emergence of new species via natural selection .
My logic opposing climate alarm relies on photosynthesis , Verdansky , and Darwin .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elixir of life , threatens climate is convenient fiction .
It is inculcated into society through left-wing propaganda , by tedious repetition .
Toe the party line .
Sadly , this teaching is not unintended error .
It is deliberate disinformation , akin to the Steele Dossier .
In his memorable 1974 commencement talk at the California Institute of Technology , Nobel physicist Richard Feynman ( 1918-88 ) talked of honesty within the practice of science , about not uttering jargon to fool non-scientists .
To mislead can not be tolerated within many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UNEP-spawned myth allowed to persist within the US government ?
The American economy deserves to be defended against disinformation attacks against its energy producers .
Trump did the right thing by cutting off UNEP .
Doctor Carlin has been disappointed Trump ’ s USEPA has not repealed the “ CO2 is endangering ” opinion , during his first year .
This finding is a scientific abomination to make George Orwell roll over in his grave .
CO2 , which enables all greenery , was determined by Obama ’ s minions , to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UN .
This is disinformation spread by foreign nations , not honest science .
It is hard to imagine a more absurd perversion of environmental science .
Who should decide science questions for the United States ?
Foreign governments through the UN , say Democrats , we defer to them .
Perhaps Trump has not repealed the CO2 finding because patiently holding back , to let socialists erode credibility via the Russian hoax and faux Impeachment ?
Or perhaps climate alarm is such a fake campaign plank Republicans do not want Dems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President has termed Fake or Corrupt News the enemy of the people .
In a democracy , disinformation ripples thru society , sowing confusion , impairing morale , mis-allocating resources , and misleading voters about what is important .
It is helpful President Trump alerts the public not to believe everything they hear .
This would include scientifically unsound teaching , spouting the socialist party line about climate quackery .
Teachers occupy an important role in society , to prepare young Americans to develop skills and prepare to assume responsibility .
Political indoctrination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of school curricula .
This ill serves teachers and students .
Those who believe the scientific process should be founded on the rigorous quest for honesty should not accept climate alarm any more than Crazy Hitler ’ s racist eugenics .
When deliberate falsity is wrapped in a mantle of scientific legitimacy , no good ensues .
Constant skepticism and vigilance are prudent , for all of us , in all walks of life .
Alarm over CO2 , a hoax for decades , serves as a classic example to justify independent thinking @ @ @ @

Guest post by Just Beau
This post will:
Salute free speech
Place climate alarm in fair context, international socialism
Explain alarm is not respectful of photosynthesis, nor honest science
Reflect on disinformation
Because climate alarm is born of politics, it is apt to begin with a campaign update.
Campaign 2020: During TV coverage prior to February’s Superbowl, the President showed why he is an effective agent of change. Trump said: Senator Sanders is a communist. Jarred awake, by the leader of the Free World no less, my mind became more active.
Why did Bernie favor Iranian revolutionaries over US hostages, during 1979? Same reason Crazy Bernie, as Trump dubs him, admired Cuba’s Fidel Castro and the cruel mess that is Venezuela, authored by Chavez and Maduro. Sanders supports socialism/communism, even more overtly than former President Obama.
Trump’s statement about Sanders triggered thought. No Dem candidates saluted Trump for ridding the world of terror monster Solemani. In debates, candidates praised evolutionary change, in contrast to revolutionary, attributed to Crazy Bernie. Why did Comrade Obama and Comrade Kerry supply billions of dollars to Iran during 2015? Because like John Brennan, who voted for communist Gus Hall in 1984’s election, Dems embrace the “Death to America” theocracy of Iran.
Dems want “fundamental” socio-economic change via their absurd Green New Deal proposal, unanimously rejected by the Senate. This would jettison a tradition of decentralized power, built on checks and balances, private property rights, economic freedoms, and protections against oppression. Dems aim to replace the private sector, with impoverishing Big Government. It is surreal, like a low brow movie plot. Socialists aim to erode essential qualities of US culture and governance, insidiously, from the inside. They chide Bernie for impatient revolution, rather than seeking the same results via patience. Fast or slow, if the goals are the same, they Comrades all sound treasonous.
With clarity of hindsight, should we be surprised Brennan steered US intelligence agencies to spy on candidate Trump via illegally constructed FISA-court authorizations? No. Obama was a socialist, recognized in Dinesh D’Souza’s 2012 film, Obama’s America. A great recession and unpopular war vaulted a socialist into the White House, shrouded in affability and protected by lapdog reporters.
Obama embraced climate alarm. Former USEPA head Carol Browner, tsar for climate, belonged to Socialist International, a global network of “democratic socialism.” This was divulged by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, 11 years ago. It seems reasonable to assume every climate advocate is socialist. Climate science must be the contemporary pseudo-scientific equivalent of eugenics that justified genocide directed by Crazy Adolf. It would behoove sensible voters to examine climate alarmism carefully, to see if it passes a sniff test, as honest science.
The Dems let Comrade Bernie campaign among them during 2016 and 2020. After Trump forthrightly disclosed Bernie is a communist, the Dems rushed to consolidate behind Sleepy Joe. Biden is flawed in multiple respects, so may serve temporarily to hide Bernie’s lunatic agenda, including re-education camps for Trump supporters, according to his campaign workers, recorded by Project Veritas. Incarceration for brainwashing is evil, illustrated by Pol Pot’s Cambodia, communist China to this day, and Stalin’s USSR, among other instances.
Dem candidates march in lock-step support for climate alarm, toeing the party line. The hoax seems an ideological cornerstone, though its credibility expired long ago. Nor did any candidate laud Solemani’s demise, another display of uniformity. During 2016, Republican candidates heatedly debated tariffs, immigration, use of military force, and other topics. In 2020, Dems debate petty variations about shared views. No Dem disputed climate change though it does not exist. Whereas Republican candidates jousted, the Dems meekly folded behind Sleepy Joe. This contrast is troubling.
It is hard to imagine American citizens benefit from open borders, sanctuary cities, stipends for illegals. Dems hint illegals will replace Americans, as if this wins votes. Open borders help despicable drug and human trafficking. Religious faith is disparaged. Obama was guided by Valerie Jarrett, born in Iran. Hillary was assisted by Huma Abedin, raised in Saudi Arabia. The closeness of these advisors may have been marketing to Muslims. Dems whine when Trump attributes a virus from Wuhan to their communist brethren running China. Some applaud the decline in the US stock market, as if Americans should vote Dem for a bleak economic outlook.
Dems are impoverished for positive ideas for American citizens, leaving only fears. They allege Trump is a communist, pawn of Putin. Trump should be impeached on faux evidentiary grounds. Americans will be wiped out by a tidal wave of Wuhan flu, so need to cower in place, while the economy dies.
Fear and corrupt news are not what made America great.
UNEP: How could the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) convene meetings and reports, over decades, yet still get climate science utterly wrong?
This mystery is easy to understand. Climate alarm serves socialists. The UN contains circa 190 nations. Most do not hold fair elections. Many embrace socialist ideologies. Or, are headed by a ruler with little checked power. If a foreign nation has coal, petroleum, or gas deposits, these are often owned by the government, not by a private firm as in the United States. Climate alarm is a UN-supplied cover story to justify taxation or confiscation of hydrocarbon deposits. This cover story serves to normalize political control over valuable energy supplies in foreign nations. Subsurface private ownership rights do not even exist in many countries.
UNEP often favors nations opposed to the US as regards energy markets, because they are the majority of UN members. For instance, the US is not a member of the petroleum price-fixing alliance, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). Price fixing is illegal under US law! Trump is the first President to call climate alarm “BS.” Like Senator Inhofe from Oklahoma, Trump is correct, unpersuaded by UNEP fairy tales.
Rigged UNEP climate science has for decades been applauded by the New York Times and other leftists. It is easy to understand why UNEP claims climate is threatened by CO2. It comes down to money and political power. The UN opinion was chosen by foreign governments, on self-interested grounds, which do not include scientific validity.
Trump realizes the UN is unfair to the US. Early in 2017, he withdrew from the UNEP climate process beloved by Germany’s Comrade Merkel, France’s Macron, and Communist China. Germany and China have even increased CO2 emissions. Happily, these increased emissions are not an environmental problem, because carbon dioxide gas enables life on Earth. Temperature effects from gaseous CO2 are 0.000 degrees. Zilch.
To protect our skin against damaging rays from the Sun, we apply protective Sunscreen, not CO2 screen. We emit CO2 ourselves, with each exhale. CO2 is non-toxic, hardly justifying alarm about the entire planet.
Unleashed by Trump, the US has become the largest supplier of oil and natural gas, over-taking Saudi Arabia. Until 2018, federal law prevented US export of oil. Two years later, US exports have dented oil’s price. Trump dealt an effective blow to OPEC prices, unmentioned by southpaw media.
Honest science: there are many persuasive ways to reject the hypothesis of climate change, because the mythical condition is not happening, out in the real world. My rebuttal draws on three fundamentals of science:
Solar-powering of plants (photosynthesis). The inseparability of oxygen and carbon dioxide Evolutionary change
At the center of our solar system, the Sun emits light and heat, strongly influencing temperature. The third planet, Earth, is 4.54 billion years old. Its earliest life forms were single-celled bacteria that harnessed sunlight, water (H2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, to enable photosynthesis. This reaction nourished the cell, while supplying oxygen (O2) to the atmosphere.
Early in Earth’s history, its atmosphere was oxygen poor (less than 1 percent). Billions of years of photosynthesis have endowed the atmosphere to 22 percent. Thru (Darwin’s) evolution of species, over immense time periods, the original cell evolved into a wondrous cornucopia of complex plants, moving onto land, putting down roots. To this very day, all greenery continues to depend on harnessing solar energy, CO2, and water, via photosynthesis.
Plants, in turn, provide foods for grazing animals and agriculture. In this way, all species on Earth are solar powered, directly or indirectly. The wondrous fecundity of our Biosphere owes to the reaction of sunlight, water, and carbon dioxide.
We inhale oxygen with each breath, employ oxygen within our bodies, and exhale CO2. In the atmosphere, O2 and CO2 are inseparable throughthe intermediation of plants. CO2 is turned, by plants, into oxygen. Of these two gases, oxygen builds up in the atmosphere, while CO2 is swiftly used by plants, so its atmospheric levels are much lower.
What governs temperatures on Earth? Received sunlight and heat, plus Earth’s angle and distance to the Sun. Could oxygen cause “global warming”? No.
Does oxygen’s inseparable partner, CO2, warm the planet? CO2 created all plants and through them oxygen as well. To socialists, CO2 is further supposed to disrupt climate, so massively that we must upend our economic system at unspeakable expense. This is absurd and pernicious. The only reliably known function of atmospheric CO2 is to change into oxygen, via photosynthesis. CO2 and O2 cycle without end, from one molecule to the other.
CO2 does not change climate. Rather CO2 enables plants and oxygen, in short, Life on Earth. Yet socialists want you to believe CO2 – which makes flowers bloom — is also making oceans rise and islands disappear, though they cannot identify any sunk islands. Or they claim CO2 is melting the ice caps.
Photosynthesis has enabled the third planet to teem with life, unknown elsewhere in the universe, to our knowledge. Yet according to Socialist International, UNEP, Al Gore, Comrade Obama, and their friends, CO2 is also responsible for dangerous changes to Earth’s climate. According to such socialists, CO2 is dangerous to the very life it has empowered, for more than four billion years. This is hard to accept.
The next thing you know, socialists will claim men can bear children! Wait, some already do claim this. Consider climate alarm as absurd as men believing they can bear children. The same political party supports both absurdities. Do you see a pattern?
The climate hoax could be funny, if they were not seeking $90T dollars for their Green New Deal. Photosynthesis does not threaten Earth’s climate. It merely allows trees to grow and flowers to bloom, while US socialists fulminate nonsense.
Climate alarm depends partly on corrupt media endorsing the hoax to those who know no better. It also depends on a common psychological yearning among socialist rank and file to fit into a tribe or community of the like-minded.
Closing: Wikipedia’s entry for photosynthesis salutes more than 20 scientists, across four centuries, who have contributed to understanding this essential reaction that relies on carbon dioxide gas, water, and sunlight. Photosynthesis transformed Earth into a Biosphere. The concept of a Biosphere owes to Vladimir Verdansky (1863-1945), founder of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. Charles Darwin (1809-1882) is renowned for insight that changes during reproduction lead to emergence of new species via natural selection. My logic opposing climate alarm relies on photosynthesis, Verdansky, and Darwin.
The notion CO2, Earth’s precious elixir of life, threatens climate is convenient fiction. It is inculcated into society through left-wing propaganda, by tedious repetition. Toe the party line.
Sadly, this teaching is not unintended error. It is deliberate disinformation, akin to the Steele Dossier. In his memorable 1974 commencement talk at the California Institute of Technology, Nobel physicist Richard Feynman (1918-88) talked of honesty within the practice of science, about not uttering jargon to fool non-scientists. To mislead cannot be tolerated within many technical professions, so why is a UNEP-spawned myth allowed to persist within the US government? The American economy deserves to be defended against disinformation attacks against its energy producers. Trump did the right thing by cutting off UNEP.
Doctor Carlin has been disappointed Trump’s USEPA has not repealed the “CO2 is endangering” opinion, during his first year. This finding is a scientific abomination to make George Orwell roll over in his grave. CO2, which enables all greenery, was determined by Obama’s minions, to “endanger” the climate because claimed by the UN. This is disinformation spread by foreign nations, not honest science. It is hard to imagine a more absurd perversion of environmental science. Who should decide science questions for the United States? Foreign governments through the UN, say Democrats, we defer to them.
Perhaps Trump has not repealed the CO2 finding because patiently holding back, to let socialists erode credibility via the Russian hoax and faux Impeachment? Or perhaps climate alarm is such a fake campaign plank Republicans do not want Dems to ever let it go?
The President has termed Fake or Corrupt News the enemy of the people. In a democracy, disinformation ripples thru society, sowing confusion, impairing morale, mis-allocating resources, and misleading voters about what is important.
It is helpful President Trump alerts the public not to believe everything they hear. This would include scientifically unsound teaching, spouting the socialist party line about climate quackery. Teachers occupy an important role in society, to prepare young Americans to develop skills and prepare to assume responsibility. Political indoctrination based on disinformation should not be part of school curricula. This ill serves teachers and students. Those who believe the scientific process should be founded on the rigorous quest for honesty should not accept climate alarm any more than Crazy Hitler’s racist eugenics. When deliberate falsity is wrapped in a mantle of scientific legitimacy, no good ensues.
Constant skepticism and vigilance are prudent, for all of us, in all walks of life. Alarm over CO2, a hoax for decades, serves as a classic example to justify independent thinking. Caveat emptor.
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April 1, 2020 at 05:52PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Coronavirus forces postponement of COP26 meeting in Glasgow

Predictable , as most other mass gatherings this year have been busy cancelling themselves recently for the same reason .
@ @ @ @ @ missed .
A key climate conference due in November is delayed over disruption caused by @ @ @ @ @ News .
The announcement was made in a joint statement from the UK and UN @ @ @ @ @ meeting of officials .
Dozens of world leaders were due to attend the COP26 gathering @ @ @ @ @ in Glasgow from November 9 this year .
It is expected that the conference will @ @ @ @ @ middle of next year .
As the virus has spread around the world , there @ @ @ @ @ in recent weeks that the COP26 talks would be delayed .
Around 30,000 delegates , @ @ @ @ @ due in Scotland for the meeting .

Predictable, as most other mass gatherings this year have been busy cancelling themselves recently for the same reason. It won’t be missed.
A key climate conference due in November is delayed over disruption caused by the coronavirus, reports BBC News.
The announcement was made in a joint statement from the UK and UN after a “virtual” meeting of officials.
Dozens of world leaders were due to attend the COP26 gathering that was set to run in Glasgow from November 9 this year.
It is expected that the conference will now take place by the middle of next year.
As the virus has spread around the world, there has been a growing expectation in recent weeks that the COP26 talks would be delayed.
Around 30,000 delegates, journalists and environmental campaigners were due in Scotland for the meeting.
Full report here.
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April 1, 2020 at 04:57PM


COP26 Postponed

The COP26 UN climate change conference set to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed due to COVID-19 .
This decision has been taken by the COP Bureau of the UNFCCC ( United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ) , with the UK and its Italian partners .
Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021 , hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy , will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties .
In light of the ongoing , worldwide effects of COVID-19 , holding an ambitious , inclusive COP26 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rescheduling will ensure all parties can focus on the issues to be discussed at this vital conference and allow more time for the necessary preparations to take place .
We will continue to work with all involved to increase climate ambition , build resilience and lower emissions .
COP26 President-Designate and Secretary of State for Business , Energy and Industrial Strategy Alok Sharma said : “ The world is currently facing an unprecedented global challenge and countries are rightly focusing their efforts on saving lives and fighting COVID-19 .
That is why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We will continue working tirelessly with our partners to deliver the ambition needed to tackle the climate crisis and I look forward to agreeing a new date for the conference.
” “ COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today , but we can not forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term .
“ Soon , economies will restart .
This is a chance for nations to recover better , to include the most vulnerable in those plans , and a chance to shape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are clean , green , healthy , just , safe and more resilient .
“ In the meantime , we continue to support and to urge nations to significantly boost climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement .
”

From The UNFCC
The COP26 UN climate change conference set to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed due to COVID-19.
This decision has been taken by the COP Bureau of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), with the UK and its Italian partners.
Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021, hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy, will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties.
In light of the ongoing, worldwide effects of COVID-19, holding an ambitious, inclusive COP26 in November 2020 is no longer possible.
Rescheduling will ensure all parties can focus on the issues to be discussed at this vital conference and allow more time for the necessary preparations to take place. We will continue to work with all involved to increase climate ambition, build resilience and lower emissions.
COP26 President-Designate and Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Alok Sharma said:
“The world is currently facing an unprecedented global challenge and countries are rightly focusing their efforts on saving lives and fighting COVID-19. That is why we have decided to reschedule COP26.
“We will continue working tirelessly with our partners to deliver the ambition needed to tackle the climate crisis and I look forward to agreeing a new date for the conference.”
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa said:
“COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term.
“Soon, economies will restart. This is a chance for nations to recover better, to include the most vulnerable in those plans, and a chance to shape the 21st century economy in ways that are clean, green, healthy, just, safe and more resilient.
“In the meantime, we continue to support and to urge nations to significantly boost climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement.”
Full article here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--March Arctic Ice Plentiful

March Arctic Ice Plentiful

Previous posts showed 2020 Arctic Ice breaking the 15M km2 ceiling mid March before starting the Spring melt in as usual later in the month .
The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007 , typically around the SII average of 14.7 Mkm2 +/- a few % .
Of course there are regional differences as described below .
The graph above shows ice extent through March comparing 2020 MASIE reports with the 13-year average , other recent years and with SII .
After exceeding the average the first half , extents fell off the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ melting in the Pacfic basins of Bering and Okhotsk .
The table below shows the distribution of sea ice across the Arctic regions .
Overall NH extent March 31 was below average by 431k km2 , or 3 % .
The bulk of the deficit is seen in Bering and Okhotsk seas , along with Baffin Bay .
Everywhere else is slightly surplus , with the exception of the Baltic , which never froze completely this year .
As of yesterday , Day 2020071 matches the NH 13-year average and also most regions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to average along with Baffin Bay and Baltic Sea .
Offsetting surpluses appear in Barents and Okhotsk Seas , as well as Greenland Sea and Central Arctic and Barents Sea .
Note Okhotsk sea ice is almost 50 % more than the extent in 2007 .

Previous posts showed 2020 Arctic Ice breaking the 15M km2 ceiling mid March before starting the Spring melt in as usual later in the month. The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007, typically around the SII average of 14.7 Mkm2 +/- a few %. Of course there are regional differences as described below.
The graph above shows ice extent through March comparing 2020 MASIE reports with the 13-year average, other recent years and with SII. After exceeding the average the first half, extents fell off the last 10 days, principally due to melting in the Pacfic basins of Bering and Okhotsk.
The table below shows the distribution of sea ice across the Arctic regions.
Region 2020091 Day 091 Average 2020-Ave. 2007091 2020-2007 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14282630 14713851 -431221 14158467 124163 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070176 479 1069711 944 (2) Chukchi_Sea 963163 963149 14 966006 -2844 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1086324 1086066 258 1074213 12111 (4) Laptev_Sea 897668 895482 2186 867162 30506 (5) Kara_Sea 928986 916178 12808 908181 20805 (6) Barents_Sea 688659 648978 39681 469156 219503 (7) Greenland_Sea 709503 656533 52970 670061 39442 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1320493 439783 -119290 1232093 88399 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 852731 1552 849011 5271 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260152 1254854 5298 1229963 30189 (11) Central_Arctic 3248013 3235482 12531 3245424 2589 (12) Bering_Sea 484084 744587 -260503 721969 -237885 (13) Baltic_Sea 8975 65202 -56227 45656 -36682 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 753705 874501 -120796 797516 -43812
Overall NH extent March 31 was below average by 431k km2, or 3%. The bulk of the deficit is seen in Bering and Okhotsk seas, along with Baffin Bay. Everywhere else is slightly surplus, with the exception of the Baltic, which never froze completely this year.
Region 2020080 Day 080 Average 2020-Ave. 2007080 2020-2007 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14901276 14873303 27972 14547397 353879 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070655 1070207 448 1069711 944 (2) Chukchi_Sea 966006 965780 226 966006 0 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087135 3 1087137 0 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897799 46 897845 0 (5) Kara_Sea 934902 917684 17218 912117 22785 (6) Barents_Sea 749134 620285 128849 583698 165436 (7) Greenland_Sea 688025 628250 59776 606689 81336 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1494573 1537332 -42760 1392468 102105 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854282 852953 1330 852767 1516 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1260407 497 1259717 1186 (11) Central_Arctic 3248013 3223120 24893 3239953 8060 (12) Bering_Sea 543951 757159 -213208 836184 -292233 (13) Baltic_Sea 13401 80508 -67107 83894 -70492 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 1083325 958236 125089 739985 343340
As of yesterday, Day 2020071 matches the NH 13-year average and also most regions. Bering Sea is the main deficit to average along with Baffin Bay and Baltic Sea. Offsetting surpluses appear in Barents and Okhotsk Seas, as well as Greenland Sea and Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Note Okhotsk sea ice is almost 50% more than the extent in 2007.
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April 1, 2020 at 03:53PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Coronavirus treatment — antibodies that work in 20 minutes could give protection for 8 weeks

NEWS : A group say they have developed five antibodies from the old SARS antibody stocks that with tweaking can now bind well to the SARS-2 novel coronavirus .
If they get through all the testing phases and ramp up production , in theory , these could be ready for mass use in September ( but everything would need to go right ) .
They could be injected into patients and within 20 minutes these antibodies would bind to the virus and stop it entering cells .
The protection might last 8 – 10 weeks before someone would need another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but beware before anyone gets too excited , this is very early days — “ protoplasm ” days .
There are a lot of steps to rush through.This group have searched and evolved the protein with their supercomputer which has a huge library of antibodies .
They claim to be certain it binds to the virus — and to exactly the right part of the virus , but they haven ’ t actually done that yet — they ’ ll send the antibody to a military secure lab to do that .
@ @ @ @

NEWS: A group say they have developed five antibodies from the old SARS antibody stocks that with tweaking can now bind well to the SARS-2 novel coronavirus.
If they get through all the testing phases and ramp up production, in theory, these could be ready for mass use in September (but everything would need to go right). They could be injected into patients and within 20 minutes these antibodies would bind to the virus and stop it entering cells. The protection might last 8 – 10 weeks before someone would need another dose.
This could be a gamechanger, but beware before anyone gets too excited, this is very early days — “protoplasm” days. There are a lot of steps to rush through.This group have searched and evolved the protein with their supercomputer which has a huge library of antibodies. They claim to be certain it binds to the virus — and to exactly the right part of the virus, but they haven’t actually done that yet — they’ll send the antibody to a military secure lab to do that. Then […]
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April 1, 2020 at 03:18PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Creating fond (?) TP memories

Creating fond (?) TP memories

Start remembering your bathroom experiences again with this new handcrafted toilet paper .
Thanks to Laurel for this video The @ @ @ @ @ ) TP memories appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Start remembering your bathroom experiences again with this new handcrafted toilet paper.
Quilted Northern Rustic Weave | Artisanal Toilet Paper
Thanks to Laurel for this video
The post Creating fond (?) TP memories appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 1, 2020 at 01:19PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Increase Absolute Humidity Indoors

Increase Absolute Humidity Indoors

Indoor temperature , humidity , and ventilation must be increased in public and private buildings to curb COVID-19 transmission .
Indoor temperatures of at least 75°F ( 24°C ) and relative humidity levels of 50 % -60 % are recommended .
Good ventilation ( rapid exchange of indoor and outdoor air ) also decreases the coronavirus spread .
A large body of research shows that low temperatures and low humidity contribute to flu-like virus epidemics , while high temperatures and high humidity reduce or even prevent flu-like epidemics .
The results are confirmed in the lab .
COVID-19 is caused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Influenza viruses are enveloped RNA viruses from the respiratory virus group , so this knowledge is fully applicable to the current epidemic .
There are many mechanisms by which higher absolute humidity suppresses these viruses , including : • keeping our mucous membranes wet and better capable of dealing with the viruses • faster virus deactivation on surfaces and in the air • decreasing amount of virus which is expelled with cough in droplets but remains in the air as aerosol People in the US and other developed countries spend most of their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are characterized by very low relative humidity , lower than optimal temperature , and bad ventilation .
Heating and air-conditioning without humidification dries indoor air , and the low humidity contributes to survival , infectivity preservation , and transmission of the coronavirus .
There is evidence that the indoor climate has been worsening over the last 10-15 years .
See Increased indoor humidity may decrease # Coronavirus # COVID-19 transmission in WUWT for the full article with annotated references .

Indoor temperature, humidity, and ventilation must be increased in public and private buildings to curb COVID-19 transmission. Indoor temperatures of at least 75°F (24°C) and relative humidity levels of 50%-60% are recommended.
Good ventilation (rapid exchange of indoor and outdoor air) also decreases the coronavirus spread.
A large body of research shows that low temperatures and low humidity contribute to flu-like virus epidemics, while high temperatures and high humidity reduce or even prevent flu-like epidemics. The results are confirmed in the lab. COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses and Influenza viruses are enveloped RNA viruses from the respiratory virus group, so this knowledge is fully applicable to the current epidemic. There are many mechanisms by which higher absolute humidity suppresses these viruses, including:
keeping our mucous membranes wet and better capable of dealing with the viruses
faster virus deactivation on surfaces and in the air
decreasing amount of virus which is expelled with cough in droplets but remains in the air as aerosol
People in the US and other developed countries spend most of their time indoors. The typical indoor conditions are characterized by very low relative humidity, lower than optimal temperature, and bad ventilation. Heating and air-conditioning without humidification dries indoor air, and the low humidity contributes to survival, infectivity preservation, and transmission of the coronavirus. There is evidence that the indoor climate has been worsening over the last 10-15 years.
See Increased indoor humidity may decrease #Coronavirus #COVID-19 transmission in WUWT for the full article with annotated references.
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April 1, 2020 at 01:08PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Sweden — going for herd immunity and using the 1918 Flu plan

Swedish people are still going to schools , restaurants and gyms .
Even the cinemas are running .
Apparently Sweden is taking the punt that there are many asymptomatic infections out there , despite having no data , and not doing any structured screening to get some either .
They are also betting that immunity to this form of coronavirus will last a lot longer than the coronavirus colds where herd immunity is irrelevant one year later .
All recommendations are made by the Public Health Agency .
Apparently they are learning from the 1918 influenza spread , and thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Swedish doctors are reportedly not happy about it .
Gatherings of 50+ people are banned , and the 70+ age group have been told to avoid social contact .
I predict that as the ICU units overflow , they will move to serious measures like the rest of the world .
Perhaps dragged into tightening as curves flatten everywhere else , but theirs continues to rise .
See Norway for example which appears to have peaked on March 27th .
Currently Sweden has 4,700 cases and about 240 deaths .
But Norway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only 43 deaths , suggesting Norway is doing a lot more [ … ]

It’s a big natural experiment
Swedish people are still going to schools, restaurants and gyms. Even the cinemas are running. Apparently Sweden is taking the punt that there are many asymptomatic infections out there, despite having no data, and not doing any structured screening to get some either. They are also betting that immunity to this form of coronavirus will last a lot longer than the coronavirus colds where herd immunity is irrelevant one year later.
All recommendations are made by the Public Health Agency. Apparently they are learning from the 1918 influenza spread, and thus successfully “fighting the last war”. Swedish doctors are reportedly not happy about it.
Gatherings of 50+ people are banned, and the 70+ age group have been told to avoid social contact.
I predict that as the ICU units overflow, they will move to serious measures like the rest of the world. Perhaps dragged into tightening as curves flatten everywhere else, but theirs continues to rise. See Norway for example which appears to have peaked on March 27th. Currently Sweden has 4,700 cases and about 240 deaths. But Norway with the same number of cases has only 43 deaths, suggesting Norway is doing a lot more […]
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April 1, 2020 at 01:08PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--6.5 earthquake near Boise, Idaho

6.5 earthquake near Boise, Idaho

M 6.5 earthquake west of Challis , Idaho about 75 miles ( 120 km ) northeast of Boise .
According @ @ @ @ @ is the largest earthquake in Idaho since the Borah Peak earthquake in 1983 .
That @ @ @ @ @ , and resulted in over $ 12M in damage in the Challis-Mackay area .
As @ @ @ @ @ earthquake , two aftershocks ( M 4.6 , M 3.6 ) have been located by @ @ @ @ @ the south of the M 6.5 event .
The earthquake was just over six miles @ @ @ @ @ KHQ has gotten reports of people feeling the earthquake as far away as Spokane , @ @ @ @ @ Alene , Idaho , and Missoula , Helena , and Great Falls , Montana .
@ @ @ @ @ links The post 6.5 earthquake near Boise , Idaho appeared first on Ice Age Now @

M 6.5 earthquake west of Challis, Idaho about 75 miles (120 km) northeast of Boise.
According to the USGS, this is the largest earthquake in Idaho since the Borah Peak earthquake in 1983. That event killed 2 in Challis, and resulted in over $12M in damage in the Challis-Mackay area. As of 1 hour after this earthquake, two aftershocks (M 4.6, M 3.6) have been located by the USGS, both to the south of the M 6.5 event.
The earthquake was just over six miles deep when it struck.
KHQ has gotten reports of people feeling the earthquake as far away as Spokane, Washington, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and Missoula, Helena, and Great Falls, Montana.
https://www.kulr8.com/news/6-5-earthquake-rocks-southern-idaho-according-to-usgs/article_251b92a6-ce21-57b9-a051-2e7c99425e34.html
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us70008jr5/executive#shakemap
Thanks to Laurel for these links
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April 1, 2020 at 12:58PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up

A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College ( Ferguson20 [ 1 ] ) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions .
The study is not peer reviewed ; indeed , it seems not to have been externally reviewed at all .
Moreover , the computer code used to produce the estimates in the study – which on Ferguson ’ s own admission is old , unverified and documented inadequately , if at all – has still not been published .
That , in my view , shows a worrying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concern .
However , even in the absence of computer code , it should be possible to check some of the key estimates in Ferguson20 – in particular those based on a ‘ Do nothing ’ scenario – and hence establish if there are any obvious problems with the study .
Since there is no evidence that anyone in government has performed such a verification exercise , I decided to do so .
The results suggest either that Ferguson20 has misstated or omitted key assumptions , or that their model does not correctly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitalised and/or dying from the COVID-19 coronavirus .
I use the relevant input assumptions for Ferguson20 ( without expressing any opinion on them ) , along with UK population data , to calculate fatality and hospitalisation figures .
The resulting calculated fatality and hospitalisation figures can be expressed as percentages of total infections and compared with the equivalent Ferguson20 values .
I also use estimates given in another paper ( Verity20 [ 2 ] ) by the same team at Imperial , from which the Ferguson20 assumptions that I use were largely derived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Ferguson20 assumes for the “ attack rate ” ( the proportion of the population that contracts COVID-19 ) and then cross-check the Ferguson20 hospitalisation rates .
Details of my calculations are set out in the Methods section appended to this article .
As Table A shows , the Ferguson20 estimate of 81 % of the total population being infected in a ‘ Do nothing ’ scenario corresponds to nearly 54 million people in the UK contracting COVID-19 over the course of the epidemic .
On that basis , Ferguson20 estimates that 510,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ implying an infection fatality ratio ( IFR ) of 0.948 % .
That is consistent with the rounded figure Ferguson20 gives [ 4 ] of 0.9 % ( the authors ignore the potential negative effect on mortality of the health system being overwhelmed ) .
However , using Ferguson20 ’ s stated assumptions , I calculate a 30 % higher death toll of approximately 660,000 people ( Column A7 ) , implying an IFR of 1.23 % .
In order to cross-check the Ferguson20 hospitalisation rates I need the relative attack rate by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state this .
I therefore estimate the relative attack rate by age-group from the ratios of the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted IFRs to the unadjusted Verity20 IFRs on which they are based .
I then use those estimated Ferguson20 relative attack rates ( the accuracy of which is validated by comparing the figures in Column A8 with those in Column A7 ) in my hospitalisation rate analysis .
Table A : Infection Fatality estimates derived from Ferguson20 assumptions and UK population data compared with those stated in Ferguson20 .
( 1 ) For each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected is the product of 81 % of the population in that age group ( Column A2 ) and the estimated relative attack rate ( Column A5 ) .
( 2 ) For each age-group , the number of fatalities in Column A7 is the product of the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted IFR ( Column A4 ) and 81 % of the population ( Column A ) .
( 3 ) For each age-group , the number of fatalities in Column A8 is the product of the Verity20 estimated IFR ( Column A4 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Column A6 ) .
These close match between these fatality numbers and those in Column A7 validates the estimated relative attack rates in Column A5 .
As Table B shows , the Ferguson20 estimate of 81 % of the total population being infected by COVID-19 on a ‘ Do nothing ’ scenario and two-thirds of them suffering symptoms corresponds to nearly 36 million people in the UK being infected symptomatically over the course of the epidemic ( Column B2 ) .
On the basis of Ferguson20 ’ s attack-rate-adjusted estimates of symptomatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , almost 2.8 million people would require hospitalisation ( Column B8 ) .
Using Ferguson20 ’ s stated assumptions , I thus calculate that 5.17 % of infected people would be hospitalised , a 17.5 % higher rate than Ferguson20 ’ s 4.4 % .
Moreover , Ferguson20 states that its hospitalisation rate assumptions are based on figures for estimated proportions of infections that would be hospitalised from Verity20 .
Applying those Verity20 estimates ( after adjusting from a per-infection basis to a per-symptomatic-infection basis , and for non-uniform attack-rate ) ( Column @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million infected people would be hospitalised ( Column B9 ) , 89 % more implied by Ferguson20 ’ s figures , and 61 % more than the almost 2.8 million people I calculate on the basis of the Ferguson20 stated assumptions .
[ 5 ] This suggests that Ferguson20 substantially downscaled the Verity20 hospitalisation rates .
There is a hint that this may have been done to adjust for the use of input data ultimately derived from a Chinese context into a GB/US one : the paper speaks of scaling the data so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ age group matched those expected in a GB/US context .
[ 6 ] However , since the Verity20 hospitalisation rates were already adjusted to a UK context , [ 7 ] it is not clear why the Ferguson20 authors considered it necessary to take this step .
Table B : Hospitalisation estimates derived from Ferguson20 assumptions and Verity20 data compared with those stated in Ferguson20 .
There may be a perfectly good explanation for the substantial apparent discrepancies in the Ferguson20 estimates of hospitalisation and fatality rates from COVID-19 that I have uncovered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they may have misstated or omitted important assumptions , or I may have misunderstood their assumptions or how they apply , or made an error in my calculations .
However , until and unless the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team show that some combination of these possibilities accounts for the apparent discrepancies , all the results of their study must be treated with care , as they could potentially be significantly in error , even if the assumptions are valid .
In the following , I refer to column numbers given in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ B. Ferguson20 gives the estimates of the severity of cases by age-group that they use .
[ 8 ] The authors say that the percentage of symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation and the IFR estimates are taken fromVerity20 , which were primarily based on Chinese data .
However , Ferguson20 states that those estimates were adjusted to account for non-uniformity of attack rate ( the proportion of each age-group that becomes infected ) , with the hospitalisation percentages additionally subjected to an overall scaling to match expected rates for the 80+ age-group in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of the total UK population would become infected in the absence of any policy measures .
I therefore apply the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted IFRs ( Column A3 ) to 81 % of the population figures ( Column A2 ) in order to calculate the number of fatalities they imply ( Column A7 ) .
Unhelpfully , Ferguson20 does not state the assumed attack rates , which I need later in my analysis .
However , for the 50-59 age group , the Ferguson20 IFR is identical to the Verity20 IFR [ 9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I can therefore estimate Ferguson20 ’ s assumed attack rates for other age-groups relative to the 50-59 age-group ( Columns A5 and B3 ) .
Since the rounded IFR figures available for under-50 age-groups preclude accurate estimation of separate relative attack-rates for each , I have used the same value for all of them , calculated so that the attack-rate for the total population is exactly one .
[ 10 ] Using that value and the estimated relative attack rates , I can then deduce , based on the latest age-structure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Column A2 ) , how many people Ferguson20 estimates will become infected in each age-group ( Column A6 ) .
I can then use those numbers , together with the Verity20 IFRs ( Column A4 ) to estimate how many fatalities are to be expected for each age-group and overall ( Column A8 ) and hence check ( by comparing the Column A8 figures with those in Column A7 ) that my estimates of the relative attack-rates used in Ferguson20 are sufficiently accurate .
The pre-attack rate adjustment number of symptomatic infected people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is derived by scaling its population ( Column A2 ) by the Ferguson20 assumptions that 81 % of the population is infected and 2/3 of infections will be symptomatic .
I then estimate , by multiplying those numbers of symptomatic infected people by the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted fractions of symptomatic cases hospitalised ( Column B3 ) , how many people in each age-group will be hospitalised using the Ferguson20 assumptions ( Column B8 ) .
I can also use the Verity20 Table 3 Percentage of infections hospitalised estimates ( Column B4 ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fraction of infections showing symptoms per the Verity20 results [ 12 ] ( Column B5 ) to convert them to percentages of symptomatic infections hospitalised and then multiplying them by the previously estimated relative attack rates ( Column B6 ) .
Multiplying the resulting attack-rate adjusted hospitalisation rates numbers of symptomatic infected people ( Column B7 ) then gives the implied numbers of people hospitalised using the Verity20 hospitalisation assumptions ( Column B9 ) .
That estimate will however not reflect the overall age-independent scaling of hospitalisation rates imposed in Ferguson20 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ al.
, Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions ( NPIs ) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand , Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 9 , 16 March 2020 , https : //spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482 [ 2 ] Verity R , Okell LC , Dorigatti I , et al .
Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease .
medRxiv 13 March 2020 ; https : //www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1 .
[ 5 ] Further investigation suggests that Ferguson20 in fact applied the Verity20 ‘ Percentage of infections hospitalised ’ estimates to the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted number of people infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by approximately 0.82 overall , uniformly for ages 40+ but with varying scaling for the ( much lower hospitalisation rate ) younger age-groups .
Since the Verity20 hospitalisation rates per infection were derived by converting rates per symptomatic case using Verity20 ’ s estimates of the fraction of infections showing symptoms , which are age-varying and all lower than the 2/3 estimate used in Ferguson20 , it seems to me inappropriate to use the Verity20 hospitalisation rates per infection in this way .
[ 10 ] The calculated common relative attack-rate of 0.936 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the Verity20 IFR to Ferguson20 IFR ratios for all separate under-50 age groups .
[ 12 ] For Verity20 , the proportion of infections that were symptomatic is estimated by dividing by the ratio of the IFR in the final column of Table 1 of Verity20 to the fully adjusted case fatality rate ( CFR ) in the penultimate column of that table .

By Nic Lewis
Introduction and summary
A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The study is not peer reviewed; indeed, it seems not to have been externally reviewed at all. Moreover, the computer code used to produce the estimates in the study – which on Ferguson’s own admission is old, unverified and documented inadequately, if at all – has still not been published. That, in my view, shows a worrying approach to a matter of vital public concern.
However, even in the absence of computer code, it should be possible to check some of the key estimates in Ferguson20 – in particular those based on a ‘Do nothing’ scenario – and hence establish if there are any obvious problems with the study. Since there is no evidence that anyone in government has performed such a verification exercise, I decided to do so. The results suggest either that Ferguson20 has misstated or omitted key assumptions, or that their model does not correctly derive the numbers of people infected, hospitalised and/or dying from the COVID-19 coronavirus.
I use the relevant input assumptions for Ferguson20 (without expressing any opinion on them), along with UK population data, to calculate fatality and hospitalisation figures. The resulting calculated fatality and hospitalisation figures can be expressed as percentages of total infections and compared with the equivalent Ferguson20 values. I also use estimates given in another paper (Verity20[2]) by the same team at Imperial, from which the Ferguson20 assumptions that I use were largely derived, in order to estimate the age-dependency that Ferguson20 assumes for the “attack rate” (the proportion of the population that contracts COVID-19) and then cross-check the Ferguson20 hospitalisation rates. Details of my calculations are set out in the Methods section appended to this article.
Infection and fatality rates and numbers
As Table A shows, the Ferguson20 estimate of 81% of the total population being infected in a ‘Do nothing’ scenario corresponds to nearly 54 million people in the UK contracting COVID-19 over the course of the epidemic. On that basis, Ferguson20 estimates that 510,000 people would die,[3] implying an infection fatality ratio (IFR) of 0.948%. That is consistent with the rounded figure Ferguson20 gives[4] of 0.9% (the authors ignore the potential negative effect on mortality of the health system being overwhelmed).
However, using Ferguson20’s stated assumptions, I calculate a 30% higher death toll of approximately 660,000 people (Column A7), implying an IFR of 1.23%.
In order to cross-check the Ferguson20 hospitalisation rates I need the relative attack rate by age-group used, however Ferguson20 does not state this. I therefore estimate the relative attack rate by age-group from the ratios of the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted IFRs to the unadjusted Verity20 IFRs on which they are based. I then use those estimated Ferguson20 relative attack rates (the accuracy of which is validated by comparing the figures in Column A8 with those in Column A7) in my hospitalisation rate analysis.
Table A: Infection Fatality estimates derived from Ferguson20 assumptions and UK population data compared with those stated in Ferguson20.
Notes
(1) For each age-group, the implied number of people infected is the product of 81% of the population in that age group (Column A2) and the estimated relative attack rate (Column A5).
(2) For each age-group, the number of fatalities in Column A7 is the product of the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted IFR (Column A4) and 81% of the population (Column A).
(3) For each age-group, the number of fatalities in Column A8 is the product of the Verity20 estimated IFR (Column A4) and the implied number of people infected (Column A6). These close match between these fatality numbers and those in Column A7 validates the estimated relative attack rates in Column A5.
Hospitalisation rates and numbers
As Table B shows, the Ferguson20 estimate of 81% of the total population being infected by COVID-19 on a ‘Do nothing’ scenario and two-thirds of them suffering symptoms corresponds to nearly 36 million people in the UK being infected symptomatically over the course of the epidemic (Column B2). On the basis of Ferguson20’s attack-rate-adjusted estimates of symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation (Column B3), almost 2.8 million people would require hospitalisation (Column B8).
Using Ferguson20’s stated assumptions, I thus calculate that 5.17% of infected people would be hospitalised, a 17.5% higher rate than Ferguson20’s 4.4%.
Moreover, Ferguson20 states that its hospitalisation rate assumptions are based on figures for estimated proportions of infections that would be hospitalised from Verity20. Applying those Verity20 estimates (after adjusting from a per-infection basis to a per-symptomatic-infection basis, and for non-uniform attack-rate) (Column B7), suggests that almost 4.5 million infected people would be hospitalised (Column B9), 89% more implied by Ferguson20’s figures, and 61% more than the almost 2.8 million people I calculate on the basis of the Ferguson20 stated assumptions.[5] This suggests that Ferguson20 substantially downscaled the Verity20 hospitalisation rates. There is a hint that this may have been done to adjust for the use of input data ultimately derived from a Chinese context into a GB/US one: the paper speaks of scaling the data so that the hospitalisation rates for the 80+ age group matched those expected in a GB/US context.[6] However, since the Verity20 hospitalisation rates were already adjusted to a UK context,[7] it is not clear why the Ferguson20 authors considered it necessary to take this step.
Table B: Hospitalisation estimates derived from Ferguson20 assumptions and Verity20 data compared with those stated in Ferguson20.
Conclusions
There may be a perfectly good explanation for the substantial apparent discrepancies in the Ferguson20 estimates of hospitalisation and fatality rates from COVID-19 that I have uncovered. Other than actual miscalculations in Ferguson20, they may have misstated or omitted important assumptions, or I may have misunderstood their assumptions or how they apply, or made an error in my calculations. However, until and unless the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team show that some combination of these possibilities accounts for the apparent discrepancies, all the results of their study must be treated with care, as they could potentially be significantly in error, even if the assumptions are valid.
Methods Appendix
In the following, I refer to column numbers given in the top rows of Tables A and B.
Ferguson20 gives the estimates of the severity of cases by age-group that they use.[8] The authors say that the percentage of symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation and the IFR estimates are taken fromVerity20, which were primarily based on Chinese data. However, Ferguson20 states that those estimates were adjusted to account for non-uniformity of attack rate (the proportion of each age-group that becomes infected), with the hospitalisation percentages additionally subjected to an overall scaling to match expected rates for the 80+ age-group in a UK/US context.
Fatalities
Ferguson20 estimates that 81% of the total UK population would become infected in the absence of any policy measures. I therefore apply the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted IFRs (Column A3) to 81% of the population figures (Column A2) in order to calculate the number of fatalities they imply (Column A7). Unhelpfully, Ferguson20 does not state the assumed attack rates, which I need later in my analysis. However, for the 50-59 age group, the Ferguson20 IFR is identical to the Verity20 IFR[9] (Columns A3 and A4). I can therefore estimate Ferguson20’s assumed attack rates for other age-groups relative to the 50-59 age-group (Columns A5 and B3). Since the rounded IFR figures available for under-50 age-groups preclude accurate estimation of separate relative attack-rates for each, I have used the same value for all of them, calculated so that the attack-rate for the total population is exactly one.[10] Using that value and the estimated relative attack rates, I can then deduce, based on the latest age-structure of the UK population[11] (Column A2), how many people Ferguson20 estimates will become infected in each age-group (Column A6). I can then use those numbers, together with the Verity20 IFRs (Column A4) to estimate how many fatalities are to be expected for each age-group and overall (Column A8) and hence check (by comparing the Column A8 figures with those in Column A7) that my estimates of the relative attack-rates used in Ferguson20 are sufficiently accurate.
Hospitalisations
The pre-attack rate adjustment number of symptomatic infected people in each age-group (Column B2) is derived by scaling its population (Column A2) by the Ferguson20 assumptions that 81% of the population is infected and 2/3 of infections will be symptomatic. I then estimate, by multiplying those numbers of symptomatic infected people by the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted fractions of symptomatic cases hospitalised (Column B3), how many people in each age-group will be hospitalised using the Ferguson20 assumptions (Column B8). I can also use the Verity20 Table 3 Percentage of infections hospitalised estimates (Column B4), by first dividing them by estimates of the fraction of infections showing symptoms per the Verity20 results[12] (Column B5) to convert them to percentages of symptomatic infections hospitalised and then multiplying them by the previously estimated relative attack rates (Column B6). Multiplying the resulting attack-rate adjusted hospitalisation rates numbers of symptomatic infected people (Column B7) then gives the implied numbers of people hospitalised using the Verity20 hospitalisation assumptions (Column B9). That estimate will however not reflect the overall age-independent scaling of hospitalisation rates imposed in Ferguson20.
Nicholas Lewis 1 April 2020
Originally posted here
[1] Neil M Ferguson et al., Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 9, 16 March 2020, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482
[2] Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease. medRxiv 13 March 2020; https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.
[3] Their page 7.
[4] Their page 5.
[5] Further investigation suggests that Ferguson20 in fact applied the Verity20 ‘Percentage of infections hospitalised’ estimates to the Ferguson20 attack-rate adjusted number of people infected, and then scaled the resulting estimates by approximately 0.82 overall, uniformly for ages 40+ but with varying scaling for the (much lower hospitalisation rate) younger age-groups. Since the Verity20 hospitalisation rates per infection were derived by converting rates per symptomatic case using Verity20’s estimates of the fraction of infections showing symptoms, which are age-varying and all lower than the 2/3 estimate used in Ferguson20, it seems to me inappropriate to use the Verity20 hospitalisation rates per infection in this way.
[6] Ferguson20 Table 1 caption.
[7] Verity20 Table 3 caption.
[8] Their Table 1.
[9] Verity20 Table 1.
[10] The calculated common relative attack-rate of 0.936 is consistent, within rounding uncertainty, with the Verity20 IFR to Ferguson20 IFR ratios for all separate under-50 age groups.
[11] Table MYE2 of https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland/mid20182019laboundaries/ukmidyearestimates20182019ladcodes.xls
[12] For Verity20, the proportion of infections that were symptomatic is estimated by dividing by the ratio of the IFR in the final column of Table 1 of Verity20 to the fully adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) in the penultimate column of that table.
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April 1, 2020 at 12:46PM


Climate Crisis RIP

Well worth reading Pierre Gosselin ’ s opinion piece on how COVID-19 has put the climate scare into perspective : @ @ @ @ @ PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Well worth reading Pierre Gosselin’s opinion piece on how COVID-19 has put the climate scare into perspective:
https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/01/climate-crisis-rip-people-will-be-in-no-mood-to-stay-in-panic-mode-after-covid-19-scare-ends/
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April 2, 2020 at 05:03AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Fight the Virus with Sunshine

Fight the Virus with Sunshine

I want to encourage people to go outside and get some sunshine .
If walks in the park are outlawed , then limited sunbathing in your back yard , or apartment roof tops would help .
I don ’ t give medical advice , but this is a no-brainer , no-regrets suggestion .
Scientists have long investigated why the flu season dramatically ends in the warmer months .
One key factor is our immune systems improve when sun shining on our skin produces the all-important Vitamin D. It is a form of vitamin D that is more effective than what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported , “ vitamin D deficiency is common in the winter , and activated vitamin D , a steroid hormone , has profound effects on human immunity .
D acts as an immune system modulator , preventing excessive expression of inflammatory cytokines and increasing the ‘ oxidative burst ’ potential of macrophages .
Perhaps most importantly , it dramatically stimulates the expression of potent anti-microbial peptides , which exist in neutrophils , monocytes , natural killer cells , and in epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract where they play a major role in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inoculated with live attenuated influenza virus are more likely to develop fever and serological evidence of an immune response in the winter .
Vitamin D deficiency predisposes children to respiratory infections .
If we do not get enough sunshine , sheltering in place just might have the unintended consequence of prolonging the COVID 19 epidemic .
As the elderly become less mobile and spend less time outside , a vitamin D deficiency would only amplify their vulnerability .
April is the time flu infections dramatically fall .
Of course , the COVID 19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immune system ’ s ability to fight all viruses is key .
Maybe a little April sunshine will minimize the COVID 19 spread and flatten the curve .
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State ’ s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles : An Environmentalist ’ s Journey to Climate Skepticism

Guest post by Jim Steele
I want to encourage people to go outside and get some sunshine. If walks in the park are outlawed, then limited sunbathing in your back yard, or apartment roof tops would help. I don’t give medical advice, but this is a no-brainer, no-regrets suggestion.
Scientists have long investigated why the flu season dramatically ends in the warmer months. One key factor is our immune systems improve when sun shining on our skin produces the all-important Vitamin D. It is a form of vitamin D that is more effective than what is added to our milk.
Researchers reported, “vitamin D deficiency is common in the winter, and activated vitamin D, a steroid hormone, has profound effects on human immunity. D acts as an immune system modulator, preventing excessive expression of inflammatory cytokines and increasing the ‘oxidative burst’ potential of macrophages. Perhaps most importantly, it dramatically stimulates the expression of potent anti-microbial peptides, which exist in neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer cells, and in epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract where they play a major role in protecting the lung from infection. Volunteers inoculated with live attenuated influenza virus are more likely to develop fever and serological evidence of an immune response in the winter. Vitamin D deficiency predisposes children to respiratory infections.
If we do not get enough sunshine, sheltering in place just might have the unintended consequence of prolonging the COVID 19 epidemic. As the elderly become less mobile and spend less time outside, a vitamin D deficiency would only amplify their vulnerability.
April is the time flu infections dramatically fall. Of course, the COVID 19 virus differs from influenza, but our immune system’s ability to fight all viruses is key. Maybe a little April sunshine will minimize the COVID 19 spread and flatten the curve.
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
Contact: naturalclimatechange@earthlink.net


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Antarctica was covered in rainforests when dinosaurs roamed Earth

The researchers estimate that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were well over 1000 parts per million in those days , compared to 400+ ppm today .
Antarctica and Australia were much closer together .
Antarctica was covered in rainforest in the time of the dinosaurs , according to a new study , Metro News reports .
Researchers have found evidence the South Pole had a climate and forests similar to New Zealand today in a startling discovery .
The team discovered soil from an ancient rainforest from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of researchers of roots , pollen and spores shows the world was a lot warmer than previously thought .
Professor Tina van de Flierdt , from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial College , London , said : ‘ The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional , but even more surprising is the world it reveals .
‘ Even during months of darkness , swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole , revealing an even warmer climate than we expected.
’ The heyday of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earth in the past 140 million years , with temperatures at 35 degrees and sea level 170 metres higher than today .
Despite the Antarctic Circle living through a four-month polar night , researchers discovered evidence it was once a temperate rainforest .
The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica .

The researchers estimate that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were well over 1000 parts per million in those days, compared to 400+ ppm today. Antarctica and Australia were much closer together.
Antarctica was covered in rainforest in the time of the dinosaurs, according to a new study, Metro News reports.
Researchers have found evidence the South Pole had a climate and forests similar to New Zealand today in a startling discovery. The team discovered soil from an ancient rainforest from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole.
The analysis carried out by an international team of researchers of roots, pollen and spores shows the world was a lot warmer than previously thought.
Professor Tina van de Flierdt, from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial College, London, said: ‘The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional, but even more surprising is the world it reveals. ‘Even during months of darkness, swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole, revealing an even warmer climate than we expected.’
The heyday of the dinosaurs was the warmest period on Earth in the past 140 million years, with temperatures at 35 degrees and sea level 170 metres higher than today.
Despite the Antarctic Circle living through a four-month polar night, researchers discovered evidence it was once a temperate rainforest. The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica.
Full report here.
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April 2, 2020 at 04:39AM