iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-16--Updated Review of Temperature Data

Updated Review of Temperature Data

Several years ago I analyzed and compared temperature records from the highest quality US weather stations as assessed by surfacestations.org project .
A recent discussion at WUWT reminded me that my report had no graphs to illustrate the finding , so the image above is provided in this update .
The previous post is reprinted below with the details .
In summary , trends were computed and compiled from absolute temperatures recorded at 23 CRN # 1 stations spread around the continental US .
The unadjusted records were quite mixed and collectively showed a flat century trend .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warming of 0.68 over the century .
An International Temperature Data Review Project has been announced , along with a call for analyses of surface temperature records to be submitted .
The project is described here : http : //www.tempdatareview.org/ Below is my submission .
Update April 27 : Notice was received today that this submission has gone to the Panel .
I did a study of 2013 records from the CRN top rated US surface stations .
It was published Aug. 20 , 2014 at No Tricks Zone .
Most remarkable about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diversity that appears when station sites are relatively free of urban heat sources .
35 % ( 8 of 23 ) of the stations reported cooling over the century .
Indeed , if we remove the 8 warmest records , the average rate flips from +0.16°C to -0.14°C .
In order to respect the intrinsic quality of temperatures , I calculated monthly slopes for each station , and averaged them for station trends .
Recently I updated that study with 2014 data and compared adjusted to unadjusted records .
The analysis shows the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 23 stations in the sample .
The average station was warmed by +0.58 C/Century , from +.18 to +.76 , comparing adjusted to unadjusted records .
19 station records were warmed , 6 of them by more than +1 C/century .
4 stations were cooled , most of the total cooling coming at one station , Tallahassee .
So for this set of stations , the chance of adjustments producing warming is 19/23 or 83 % .
A study of US CRN1 stations , top-rated for their siting quality , shows that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ times larger than unadjusted data .
The unadjusted files from ghcn.v3.qcu have been scrutinized for outlier values , and for step changes indicative of non-climatic biases .
In no case was the normal variability pattern interrupted by step changes .
Coverages were strong , the typical history exceeding 95 % , and some achieved 100 % .
( Measured by the % of months with a reported Tavg value out of the total months in the station ’ s lifetime . )
The adjusted files are another story .
Typically , years of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a row .
Entire rows are erased including the year identifier , so finding the missing years is a tedious manual process looking for gaps in the sequence of years .
All stations except one lost years of data through adjustments , often in recent years .
At one station , four years of data from 2007 to 2010 were deleted ; in another case , 5 years of data from 2002 to 2006 went missing .
Strikingly , 9 stations that show no 2014 data in the adjusted file have fully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It is instructive to see the effect of adjustments upon individual stations .
A prime example is 350412 Baker City , Oregon .
Over 125 years GHCN v.3 unadjusted shows a trend of -0.0051 C/century .
The adjusted data shows +1.48C/century .
How does the difference arise ?
The coverage is about the same , though 7 years of data are dropped in the adjusted file .
However , the values are systematically lowered in the adjusted version : Average annual temperature is +6C +/-2C for the adjusted file ; +9.4C +/-1.7C unadjusted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produced ?
In the distant past , prior to 1911 , adjusted temperatures decade by decade are cooler by more than -2C each month .
That adjustment changes to -1.8C 1912-1935 , then changes to -2.2 for 1936 to 1943 .
The rate ranges from -1.2 to -1.5C 1944-1988 , then changes to -1C .
From 2002 onward , adjusted values are more than 1C higher than the unadjusted record .
Some apologists for the adjustments have stated that cooling is done as much as warming .
Here it is demonstrated that by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warming trend can be created , even though the adjusted record ends up cooler on average over the 20th Century .
A different kind of example is provided by 417945 San Antonio , Texas .
Here the unadjusted record had a complete 100 % coverage , and the adjustments deleted 262 months of data , reducing the coverage to 83 % .
In addition , the past was cooled , adjustments ranging from -1.2C per month in 1885 gradually coming to -0.2C by 1970 .
These cooling adjustments were minor , only reducing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Temperatures since 1997 were increased by about 0.5C each year .
Due to deleted years of data along with recent increases , San Antonio went from an unadjusted trend of +0.30C/century to an adjusted trend of +0.92C/century , tripling the warming at that location .
The overall comparison for the set of CRN1 stations : These stations are sited away from urban heat sources , and the unadjusted records reveal a diversity of local climates , as shown by the deviation and contrasting Max and Min results .
Seven stations showed negative trends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data reduces the diversity and shifts the results toward warming .
The average trend is 4 times warmer , only 2 stations show any cooling , and at smaller rates .
Many stations had warming rates increased by multiples from the unadjusted rates .
Whereas 4 months had negative trends in the unadjusted dataset , no months show cooling after adjustments .
Periodic Rates from US CRN1 Stations Looking at periodic trends within the series , it is clear that adjustments at these stations increased the trend over the last 100 years from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ achieved by reducing the cooling mid-century and accelerating the warming prior to 1998 .
Surfacestations.org provides a list of 23 stations that have the CRN # 1 Rating for the quality of the sites .
I obtained the records from the latest GHCNv3 monthly qcu report , did my own data quality review and built a Temperature Trend Analysis workbook .
I made a companion workbook using the GHCNv3 qca report .
Both datasets are available here : ftp : //ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/ As it happens , the stations are spread out across the continental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Oregon , North Dakota , Montana ; SW : California , Nevada , Colorado , Texas ; MW : Indiana , Missouri , Arkansas , Louisiana ; NE : New York , Rhode Island , Pennsylvania ; SE : Georgia , Alabama , Mississippi , Florida .
The method involves creating for each station a spreadsheet with monthly average temperatures imported into a 2D array , a row for each year , a column for each month .
The sheet calculates a trend for each month for all of the years recorded at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are averaged together for a lifetime trend for that station .
To be comparable to others , the station trend is presented as degrees per 100 years .
A summary sheet collects all the trends from all the sheets to provide trend analysis for the set of stations and the geographical area of interest .
Thus the temperatures themselves are not compared , but rather the change derivative expressed as a slope .
I have built Excel workbooks to do this analysis , and have attached two workbooks : USHCN1 Adjusted and Unadjusted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ random sample for studying the effects of adjustments upon historical records .
Included are all USHCN stations inspected by surfacestations.org that , in their judgment , met the CRN standard for # 1 rating .
The sample was formed on a physical criterion , siting quality , independent of the content of the temperature records .
The only bias in the selection is the expectation that the measured temperatures should be uncontaminated by urban heat sources .
It is startling to see how distorted and degraded are the adjusted records compared to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theory is offered here as to how or why this has happened , only to disclose the records themselves and make the comparisons .
In conclusion , it is not only a matter of concern that individual station histories are altered by adjustments .
But also the adjusted dataset is the one used as input into programs computing global anomalies and averages .
This much diminished dataset does not inspire confidence in the temperature reconstruction products built upon it .
Thank you for undertaking this project .
Hopefully my analyses are useful in @ @ @

Update March 16, 2020
Several years ago I analyzed and compared temperature records from the highest quality US weather stations as assessed by surfacestations.org project. A recent discussion at WUWT reminded me that my report had no graphs to illustrate the finding, so the image above is provided in this update.
The previous post is reprinted below with the details. In summary, trends were computed and compiled from absolute temperatures recorded at 23 CRN#1 stations spread around the continental US. The unadjusted records were quite mixed and collectively showed a flat century trend. However, adjusted records from the same stations showed warming of 0.68 over the century.
Previous Post: My Submission to Temperature Data Review Project
An International Temperature Data Review Project has been announced, along with a call for analyses of surface temperature records to be submitted. The project is described here: http://www.tempdatareview.org/
Below is my submission.
Update April 27: Notice was received today that this submission has gone to the Panel.
Overview
I did a study of 2013 records from the CRN top rated US surface stations. It was published Aug. 20, 2014 at No Tricks Zone. Most remarkable about these records is the extensive local climate diversity that appears when station sites are relatively free of urban heat sources. 35% (8 of 23) of the stations reported cooling over the century. Indeed, if we remove the 8 warmest records, the average rate flips from +0.16°C to -0.14°C. In order to respect the intrinsic quality of temperatures, I calculated monthly slopes for each station, and averaged them for station trends.
Recently I updated that study with 2014 data and compared adjusted to unadjusted records. The analysis shows the effect of GHCN adjustments on each of the 23 stations in the sample. The average station was warmed by +0.58 C/Century, from +.18 to +.76, comparing adjusted to unadjusted records. 19 station records were warmed, 6 of them by more than +1 C/century. 4 stations were cooled, most of the total cooling coming at one station, Tallahassee. So for this set of stations, the chance of adjustments producing warming is 19/23 or 83%.
Adjustments Multiply Warming at US CRN1 Stations
A study of US CRN1 stations, top-rated for their siting quality, shows that GHCN adjusted data produces warming trends several times larger than unadjusted data.
The unadjusted files from ghcn.v3.qcu have been scrutinized for outlier values, and for step changes indicative of non-climatic biases. In no case was the normal variability pattern interrupted by step changes. Coverages were strong, the typical history exceeding 95%, and some achieved 100%.(Measured by the % of months with a reported Tavg value out of the total months in the station’s lifetime.)
The adjusted files are another story. Typically, years of data are deleted, often several years in a row. Entire rows are erased including the year identifier, so finding the missing years is a tedious manual process looking for gaps in the sequence of years. All stations except one lost years of data through adjustments, often in recent years. At one station, four years of data from 2007 to 2010 were deleted; in another case, 5 years of data from 2002 to 2006 went missing. Strikingly, 9 stations that show no 2014 data in the adjusted file have fully reported 2014 in the unadjusted file.
It is instructive to see the effect of adjustments upon individual stations. A prime example is 350412 Baker City, Oregon.
Over 125 years GHCN v.3 unadjusted shows a trend of -0.0051 C/century. The adjusted data shows +1.48C/century. How does the difference arise? The coverage is about the same, though 7 years of data are dropped in the adjusted file. However, the values are systematically lowered in the adjusted version: Average annual temperature is +6C +/-2C for the adjusted file; +9.4C +/-1.7C unadjusted.
How then is a warming trend produced? In the distant past, prior to 1911, adjusted temperatures decade by decade are cooler by more than -2C each month. That adjustment changes to -1.8C 1912-1935, then changes to -2.2 for 1936 to 1943. The rate ranges from -1.2 to -1.5C 1944-1988, then changes to -1C. From 2002 onward, adjusted values are more than 1C higher than the unadjusted record.
Some apologists for the adjustments have stated that cooling is done as much as warming. Here it is demonstrated that by cooling selectively in the past, a warming trend can be created, even though the adjusted record ends up cooler on average over the 20th Century.
A different kind of example is provided by 417945 San Antonio, Texas. Here the unadjusted record had a complete 100% coverage, and the adjustments deleted 262 months of data, reducing the coverage to 83%. In addition, the past was cooled, adjustments ranging from -1.2C per month in 1885 gradually coming to -0.2C by 1970. These cooling adjustments were minor, only reducing the average annual temperature by 0.16C. Temperatures since 1997 were increased by about 0.5C each year. Due to deleted years of data along with recent increases, San Antonio went from an unadjusted trend of +0.30C/century to an adjusted trend of +0.92C/century, tripling the warming at that location.
The overall comparison for the set of CRN1 stations:
Area FIRST CLASS US STATIONS History 1874 to 2014 Stations 23 Dataset Unadjusted Adjusted Average Trend 0.18 0.76 °C/Century Std. Deviation 0.66 0.54 °C/Century Max Trend 1.18 1.91 °C/Century Min Trend -2.00 -0.48 °C/Century Ave. Length 119 Years
These stations are sited away from urban heat sources, and the unadjusted records reveal a diversity of local climates, as shown by the deviation and contrasting Max and Min results. Seven stations showed negative trends over their lifetimes through 2014.
Adjusted data reduces the diversity and shifts the results toward warming. The average trend is 4 times warmer, only 2 stations show any cooling, and at smaller rates. Many stations had warming rates increased by multiples from the unadjusted rates. Whereas 4 months had negative trends in the unadjusted dataset, no months show cooling after adjustments.
Periodic Rates from US CRN1 Stations
°C/Century °C/Century Start End Unadjusted Adjusted 1915 1944 1.22 1.51 1944 1976 -1.48 -0.92 1976 1998 3.12 4.35 1998 2014 -1.67 -1.84 1915 2014 0.005 0.68
Looking at periodic trends within the series, it is clear that adjustments at these stations increased the trend over the last 100 years from flat to +0.68 C/Century. This was achieved by reducing the cooling mid-century and accelerating the warming prior to 1998.
Methodology
Surfacestations.org provides a list of 23 stations that have the CRN#1 Rating for the quality of the sites. I obtained the records from the latest GHCNv3 monthly qcu report, did my own data quality review and built a Temperature Trend Analysis workbook. I made a companion workbook using the GHCNv3 qca report. Both datasets are available here:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/
As it happens, the stations are spread out across the continental US (CONUS): NW: Oregon, North Dakota, Montana; SW: California, Nevada, Colorado, Texas; MW: Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana; NE: New York, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania; SE: Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida.
The method involves creating for each station a spreadsheet with monthly average temperatures imported into a 2D array, a row for each year, a column for each month. The sheet calculates a trend for each month for all of the years recorded at that station. Then the monthly trends are averaged together for a lifetime trend for that station. To be comparable to others, the station trend is presented as degrees per 100 years. A summary sheet collects all the trends from all the sheets to provide trend analysis for the set of stations and the geographical area of interest. Thus the temperatures themselves are not compared, but rather the change derivative expressed as a slope.
I have built Excel workbooks to do this analysis, and have attached two workbooks: USHCN1 Adjusted and Unadjusted.
Conclusion
These 23 US stations comprise a random sample for studying the effects of adjustments upon historical records. Included are all USHCN stations inspected by surfacestations.org that, in their judgment, met the CRN standard for #1 rating. The sample was formed on a physical criterion, siting quality, independent of the content of the temperature records. The only bias in the selection is the expectation that the measured temperatures should be uncontaminated by urban heat sources.
It is startling to see how distorted and degraded are the adjusted records compared to the records submitted by weather authorities. No theory is offered here as to how or why this has happened, only to disclose the records themselves and make the comparisons.
In conclusion, it is not only a matter of concern that individual station histories are altered by adjustments. But also the adjusted dataset is the one used as input into programs computing global anomalies and averages. This much diminished dataset does not inspire confidence in the temperature reconstruction products built upon it.
Thank you for undertaking this project. Hopefully my analyses are useful in your work.
Sincerely, Ron Clutz
US CRN1 Unadjusted TTA2 2014 US CRN1 Adjusted TTA 2014
via Science Matters
https://ift.tt/2TVkk8W
March 16, 2020 at 11:58AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-16--First anniversary for The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened

On this first anniversary of the publication of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened , it ’ s a day of celebration for me .
The book has informed thousands about how and why the scary stories about the imminent demise of polar bears due to human-caused global warming failed so miserably .
It is a story of the triumph of facts over assumptions and a perfect example of why scientific observations trump model predictions .
It is also a study of science at its worst : how a close-knit community of scientists groomed by a few senior researchers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who refused to tow the line on their climate change agenda – and mobilized mobs to attack outsiders who questioned their authority .
If you haven ’ t read it , now may be the perfect time .
Many of you will be forced or encouraged to stay at home because of Covid-19 concerns , so here is one way to put the time to good use .
Ebooks are perfect for this situation .
If you don ’ t like Amazon , Smashwords has an ebook version here .
Smashwords also has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EATEN .
This polar bear attack thriller is a timely read for a number of reasons but primarily because it ’ s the story of an animal epidemic with horrific consequences quite different from the one we are facing at the moment .
My polar bear science book for kids , Polar Bear Facts and Myths in ebook form might be the perfect diversion for kids at home who need interesting educational material .
You ’ ll find links to all of my books , in all countries and all outlets , at @ @ @ @ @

On this first anniversary of the publication of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, it’s a day of celebration for me. The book has informed thousands about how and why the scary stories about the imminent demise of polar bears due to human-caused global warming failed so miserably. It is a story of the triumph of facts over assumptions and a perfect example of why scientific observations trump model predictions. It is also a study of science at its worst: how a close-knit community of scientists groomed by a few senior researchers was able to cast out an insider who refused to tow the line on their climate change agenda – and mobilized mobs to attack outsiders who questioned their authority.
If you haven’t read it, now may be the perfect time. Many of you will be forced or encouraged to stay at home because of Covid-19 concerns, so here is one way to put the time to good use. Ebooks are perfect for this situation. If you don’t like Amazon, Smashwords has an ebook version here.
Smashwords also has an ebook verstion of my novel, EATEN. This polar bear attack thriller is a timely read for a number of reasons but primarily because it’s the story of an animal epidemic with horrific consequences quite different from the one we are facing at the moment.
My polar bear science book for kids, Polar Bear Facts and Myths in ebook form might be the perfect diversion for kids at home who need interesting educational material.
You’ll find links to all of my books, in all countries and all outlets, at my personal website here.
Stay safe.
via polarbearscience
https://ift.tt/38WDi38
March 16, 2020 at 11:15AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-16--Record snowfall in Spokane

Record snowfall in Spokane

“ Man helps pregnant woman escape after crash into Spokane River , as record snowfall causes numerous wrecks , ” @ @ @ @ @ The Spokane International Airport measured 5.1 inches of snow in the 24-hour period through 11 @ @ @ @ @ measured 3.4 inches on Friday , a record for the day.
” Thanks to Clay @ @ @ @ @ post Record snowfall in Spokane appeared first on Ice Age Now .

“Man helps pregnant woman escape after crash into Spokane River, as record snowfall causes numerous wrecks,” reads the headline.
“The Spokane International Airport measured 5.1 inches of snow in the 24-hour period through 11 a.m. Saturday. The airport measured 3.4 inches on Friday, a record for the day.”
See entire article:
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/mar/14/man-helps-pregnant-woman-escape-after-crash-into-s/
Thanks to Clay Olson for this link
The post Record snowfall in Spokane appeared first on Ice Age Now.
via Ice Age Now
https://ift.tt/3aS1NQC
March 16, 2020 at 09:27AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-16--Uncertainty In Natural Climate Forcing Is 870 Times Larger Than CO2 Forcing – A CO2 Signal Is Thus N

Uncertainty In Natural Climate Forcing Is 870 Times Larger Than CO2 Forcing – A CO2 Signal Is Thus Not Detectable

Clouds regulate Earth ’ s climate .
New studies suggest uncertainty in clouds ’ surface radiative effects reach 17.4 W/m² per year ( ±8.7 W/m²/year ) .
Total CO2 climate forcing is said to be just 0.02 W/m² per year .
The difference in these magnitudes preclude detection of a CO2 signal in climate forcing .
According to Feldman et al .
( 2015 ) , a 2 ppm increase in CO2 per year ( 22 ppm over the 11 years from 2000-2010 ) results in a surface radiative forcing influence of 0.02 W/m² , or 0.2 W/m² per decade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation ” when clouds and water vapor are considered .
In contrast , the influence of clouds in total longwave forcing is substantially larger , with radiative forcing trends reaching ±4 W/m² per decade .
From 1978 to 2010 , the total longwave anomalies reached amplitudes of about ±2 W/m² per year ( Loeb et al.
, 2012 , below image ) .
These anomalies dwarf the 0.02 W/m² per year radiative influence from CO2 , and thus factors other than CO2 must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the overall trend in longwave or greenhouse effect forcing appears to have been flat during this 30-year period .
CO2 ’ s 0.2 W/m² per decade contribution may have had no net impact on the trend .
Even if a CO2 forcing signal was detectable in an overall trend over the last few decades , it would be lost amid the uncertainty and noise of the radiative effects of clouds .
According to L ’ Ecuyer et al.
, 2019 , the global annual net cloud radiative effect ( CRE ) at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be -24.8 ±8.7 W/m² .
In other words , when cloud cover increases , surface temperatures cool because the net shortwave effects of cloud ( -51 W/m² ) exceed the net longwave effects of cloud ( +26.3 W/m² ) .
The uncertainty value associated with this overall surface forcing estimate , ±8.7 W/m² , has a range of 17.4 W/m² .
If CO2 ’ s net radiative effect in surface forcing is 0.02 W/m² per year and the uncertainty the radiative effects of clouds is ±8.7 W/m² per year , this means that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence .
A CO2 forcing signal is therefore not detectable in the Earth ’ s energy balance .

Clouds regulate Earth’s climate. New studies suggest uncertainty in clouds’ surface radiative effects reach 17.4 W/m² per year (±8.7 W/m²/year). Total CO2 climate forcing is said to be just 0.02 W/m² per year. The difference in these magnitudes preclude detection of a CO2 signal in climate forcing.
According to Feldman et al. (2015), a 2 ppm increase in CO2 per year (22 ppm over the 11 years from 2000-2010) results in a surface radiative forcing influence of 0.02 W/m², or 0.2 W/m² per decade. This is said to be just “ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation” when clouds and water vapor are considered.
In contrast, the influence of clouds in total longwave forcing is substantially larger, with radiative forcing trends reaching ±4 W/m² per decade.
From 1978 to 2010, the total longwave anomalies reached amplitudes of about ±2 W/m² per year (Loeb et al., 2012, below image). These anomalies dwarf the 0.02 W/m² per year radiative influence from CO2, and thus factors other than CO2 must be driving the variability.
Further, the overall trend in longwave or greenhouse effect forcing appears to have been flat during this 30-year period. CO2’s 0.2 W/m² per decade contribution may have had no net impact on the trend.
Even if a CO2 forcing signal was detectable in an overall trend over the last few decades, it would be lost amid the uncertainty and noise of the radiative effects of clouds.
According to L’Ecuyer et al., 2019, the global annual net cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the Earth’s surface is estimated to be -24.8 ±8.7 W/m². In other words, when cloud cover increases, surface temperatures cool because the net shortwave effects of cloud (-51 W/m²) exceed the net longwave effects of cloud (+26.3 W/m²). The uncertainty value associated with this overall surface forcing estimate, ±8.7 W/m², has a range of 17.4 W/m².
If CO2’s net radiative effect in surface forcing is 0.02 W/m² per year and the uncertainty the radiative effects of clouds is ±8.7 W/m² per year, this means that uncertainty is 870 larger than the CO2 influence.
A CO2 forcing signal is therefore not detectable in the Earth’s energy balance.
Donate – choose an amount
via NoTricksZone
https://ift.tt/2IMTTfo
March 16, 2020 at 09:13AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Memories of the Wild West

Memories of the Wild West

The Perth of my youth was a friendly West Australian town , half asleep by the bays and reaches of the Swan .
We called ourselves the “ Wildflower State ” .
Perhaps the “ Flogging and Hanging State ” would be more apt .
First , I ’ ll reminisce about the hangings , then the floggings .
In 1964 when I was a reporter and part-time UWA student , there were three death sentences , and two were carried out .
Perth ’ s Anglican Archbishop , the Most Rev George Appleton , protested but added that if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the State should switch to lethal injections .
To be fair to my home state , the October 1964 hanging of random sniper Eric Edgar Cooke was WA ’ s last ; Victoria ’ s Liberal premier , Henry Bolte , hanged escapee/murderer Robert Ryan in 1967 , the last man to go to the gallows in Australia .
Perth hanged Brian William Robinson in January of the same year , 1964 , that saw Cooke hanged.The Robinson preliminaries were so off-the-wall that I don ’ t expect to be believed .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it was the Wild West .
Thousands of viewers of Channel 7 Perth armed themselves to help the police capture the desperado in a pine plantation , at extreme risk of death by friendly fire .
One might reflect on how far the policing culture has changed since those rough-hewn days by noting the Victoria Police ’ s sensitive handling of Dimitrious Gargasoulas before his 2017 car rampage down Bourke Street Mall .
To keep my editor employed , please CLICK HERE to see the original… On Saturday morning , February 9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ran amok after hearing a rumor that his mother was also his sister .
( A milder version maintains that the catalyst was father George , 70 , chipping him for dole-bludging ) .
Constable Noel Iles was called to the fracas at the family ’ s Belmont home as the Robinsons were fighting for the son ’ s shotgun .
Getting control of the weapon , Brian Robinson turned it on Iles and shot him in the face from a front window .
Then he went outside , kicked the kneeling Iles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fatally .
A pair in a passing Goggomobile Dart convertible ( a 300cc microcar ) stopped to look .
Robinson tried for a Goggomobile getaway and shot the passenger dead when he resisted .
The woman driver stayed in the car and was filmed by Channel 7 ’ s crew , hot on the scene , smoking a cigarette in a holder with the body in a blanket slumped behind her .
[ 1 ] Robinson then commandeered a Swan taxi by whacking the driver Arthur Smith with his gun-butt .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He drove Robinson to the Gnangara pine plantation and deliberately bogged the taxi a couple of kilometres inside .
They made off on foot and the Smith got away when Robinson hid from a police spotter plane .
When night fell the police manhunters relied on an RAAF searchlight truck and a Channel 7 Outside Broadcast Van ’ s studio lights and microwave communications .
In this fraternal atmosphere police asked young Seven reporter Bob Cribb to broadcast a call for all available personnel to come to the plantation , armed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but newsreader Lloyd Lawson called on armed citizens of every description .
[ 2 ] Incredibly , the police directed Cribb to enter the plantation with the Seven van only if he had a gun .
He borrowed a shotgun from his local greengrocer , additional to pen , pad and mike .
Sniper Eric Edgar Cooke , “ The Night Caller ” , was at large after shooting five residents in the previous five weeks Multitudes of Perth men had weapons handy to defend hearth and home .
Posses arrived at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , truck , motorbike , bicycle and horseback , with shotguns , rifles and pistols .
The estimate was a 5000-strong force , police included and a few Amazonian women .
Many police were out of uniform and none of the crowd knew what Robinson looked like .
TV footage shows one street crammed end-to-end for a kilometre with armed Perth-ites .
Some were in cowboy hats with rifle in one hand and pistol in the other .
Policeman Bob Masters was on the front line .
“ I was just astounded when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Drew ’ s motorbike [ was that Drew the future novelist ? ]
.
We went the full length of the road , people were right alongside each other , they had guns , it really worried me , it was terrible.
” Nonetheless the police were not averse to helpers .
One high-ranking officer addressed the crowd about the danger , “ and if we felt uncomfortable , we were given permission to leave , ” says reporter Colin Gorey .
The makeshift army “ proceeded with daring abandon through deep undergrowth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Long lines of manhunters strode forward , filmed by Channel 7 ’ s crew in the spirit of Damien Parer on the Kokoda Track .
Live outside TV in 1963 was in its infancy , so the the black and white action footage was stunning .
Reporter Cribb ad-libbed for three hours , including such sub-judice gems as “ The mad dog killer is holed up in this bush ” .
[ 3 ] The most solid account is by retired WA Police Commissioner Brian Bull , who as a young detective helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as they approached the abandoned taxi a shot rang out – but from a fumbling policeman .
During the night the perimeter was cordoned and by daylight police brought in a “ native tracker ” Mick Wilson , who had been holidaying , from Port Hedland .
Bull ’ s job was to closely protect the tracker from the gunman , with six police 200m in reserve behind : “ I admired the courage of Mick who was completely exposed if we came close to the offender and he was the one most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find no report that Mick got an award .
After many hours Mick said the killer was near .
Everyone closed up and then several shots rang out .
But they were from the blocking line of police ahead who brought down the fleeing Robinson .
In his understated police way , Bull said his group hadn ’ t realised they were walking into the path of the massed public and police gunnies .
“ It became evident that we had been exposed to considerable risk from ‘ friendly fire ’ and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before many police and armed members of the public opened fire , ” he concluded .
Policeman Bob Masters fired that final shot : ” If I hadn ’ t , I believe a lot of other people would have been badly injured.
” Robinson was convicted in May 1963 and hanged on January 20 , 1964 .
Reporter Cribb , a colourful and likeable guy , was later fired by Seven three or four times and re-instated , doubtless thanks to the channel ’ s scoop of the century .
Cameraman Peter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We all got back to Seven and were elated .
Even invited to the board room for champagne .
Some crazy memories….mmm !
” This might all whet your appetite for Fremantle ’ s history of floggings , the western city today being one of the country ’ s most woke .
Flogging was on the WA statutes until 1992 , but the last thrashing involved a 19-year-old shop assistant in 1962 .
He got two years and 12 strokes of the birch for consensual sex with a 14-year-old , aka “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sentence but the aptly named Chief Justice Mr Justice Wolff said it was “ richly deserved ” .
A QC , Tom Percy , commented , “ He wasn ’ t old enough to vote , or even have a drink , but in the eyes of the law he was old enough to be flogged.
” Who did the flogging and how it was carried out remains a state secret , although we do know the Brand Liberal government imported the birch rod specially from England .
The previous birching was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1950s .
The last full-on flogging with a cat-o-nine tails in Fremantle Gaol involved robber Sydney Sutton 43 , for escaping gaol ( he made a key in the workshop ) and raping a 12-year-old schoolgirl .
That flogging took place on June 22 , 1943 , not 1843 .
[ 4 ] He ’ d also committed rape during an escape from the lower-security Barton ’ s Mill .
Sutton was inside Fremantle since 1937 for housebreaking , robbery with violence and for a movie-style shoot-out with detectives on Canning Bridge .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ lacking initiative , he briefly enjoyed three weeks ’ freedom in 1939-40 as well , by escaping in a brown felt hat from a working party that was burning off grass outside .
Gaol was “ a hell of a life ” , he complained to the beak , Mr H.J .
Craig .
For the 1943 escape and rape , Sutton was sentenced to life and 25 lashes of the cat .
Fear immediately sent him into a medical collapse .
Perth lacked a hangman/flogger but scores of Perth and Eastern States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the job .
Newspapers printed letters from volunteers pressing their case .
Sutton was tied to the triangle with hands above his head and ankles secured .
The Mirrorreported , Though he has shown contempt for every other form of punishment , a flogging was more than even a hardened criminal of Sutton ’ s type could stand .
And by the time the cat had bitten into his back 17 times , a doctor examined the writhing , moaning man and decided that was all he could bear for the present .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the lashes , was carefully tended by the doctor and Sutton was taken away .
[ I hope the doctor bulk-billed ] .
As news of the flogging seeped through the prison , the effect on the other prisoners was profound .
Of all jail punishments , none has a greater effect on a man ’ s fellow prisoners – and presumably his former associates outside – than a flogging .
It is intended as a deterrent , grisly and fear-impelling , but not sadistic .
After a public outcry , Sutton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In fact , undeterred by that ‘ non-sadistic ’ experience , he was caught hiding in the prison roof space on July 22 , exactly a month later .
Perth people in the 1960s had few degrees of separation , and even now you need to watch what you say and to whom .
As a reporter , I knew Labor Deputy Opposition Leader Herb Graham a bit .
He was not only an anti-hanging and anti-flogging crusader in the Assembly , but had actually seen Sutton in gaol a few months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ truly a political veteran , having entered State Parliament in early 1943 ) .
After seeing Sutton , Graham brought a cat o ’ nine tails into the Assembly “ for the edification of members ” , much like Prime Minister Morrison arriving in the House three years ago with a lump of coal .
In a 1965 Assembly debate , Graham said , “ That person [ Sutton ] had the look of a mad animal .
I could almost see him snarl as we approached him .
I suggest that was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suffer in the way of the lashing.
” [ 5 ] Flogging was not an abstruse issue in 1965 .
Perth gays , for example , were liable not merely to a maximum 14 years hard labor for buggery , but a whipping .
“ Gross indecency ” involved only three years , but also with a whipping .
Buggery convictions occurred from time to time — a former high-school classmate of mine was charged after a gay fancy-dress party where revellers dressed like nuns .
Sentences were fairly token but the public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Court brought in a Bill to tone down the words using in sentencing murderers .
Judges heretofore used to say that the “ prisoner be returned to his former custody , and that at a time and place to be appointed by the Governor , he be hanged by the neck until he is dead.
” But thanks to Liberal compassion , the wording was to be changed to “ suffer death in the manner prescribed by law ” .
No change ensued to isolation , hangman imported from interstate , a padre @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , noose , and greased trapdoor hinge .
The 1965 Bill also varied the whippings procedure , to substitute a cane or leather strap for the hard-to-procure birch rods .
Charlie Court didn ’ t take Graham seriously , saying the Bill was just legislative tidying-up : Court : We have heard the member with this standard speech of his so often .
Graham : No , it is different every time I make it .
Court chided that in the election earlier that year , hardly a constituent had raised the issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young girls were keen on rapists getting whipped .
Court continued , “ It is easy to get emotionally worked up over these matters but the Government feels they have to be considered and decided in a calmer atmosphere .
The Government is keeping this matter constantly under review in a sensible and responsible way.
” In the event , WA ’ s capital punishment law lingered for 19 years , including the eight years of Court ’ s premiership , until Labor ’ s WA Inc. Premier Brian Burke grasped the nettle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the books till 1992 .
Tony Thomas has a new book published this month , Come to think of it – essays to tickle the brain .
Get your copy on-line here from Connor Court .
[ 1 ] A bystander took offence and police had to break up his fist-fight with the cameraman .
[ 2 ] Cribb was originally a cadet at The West Australian , as I was , but I was some years older and don ’ t remember much about him .
[ 3 ] Cribb and Channel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of court over the comment , and Robinson ’ s defence lawyer tried to use such quotes to secure a mistrial .
[ 4 ] The previous WA flogging with the cat was in 1933 and the flogger was a policeman .

The Perth of my youth was a friendly West Australian town, half asleep by the bays and reaches of the Swan. We called ourselves the “Wildflower State”. Perhaps the “Flogging and Hanging State” would be more apt. First, I’ll reminisce about the hangings, then the floggings.
In 1964 when I was a reporter and part-time UWA student, there were three death sentences, and two were carried out. Perth’s Anglican Archbishop, the Most Rev George Appleton, protested but added that if the death penalty had to stay, the State should switch to lethal injections. To be fair to my home state, the October 1964 hanging of random sniper Eric Edgar Cooke was WA’s last; Victoria’s Liberal premier, Henry Bolte, hanged escapee/murderer Robert Ryan in 1967, the last man to go to the gallows in Australia.
Perth hanged Brian William Robinson in January of the same year, 1964, that saw Cooke hanged.The Robinson preliminaries were so off-the-wall that I don’t expect to be believed. It wasn’t like the Wild West, it was the Wild West. Thousands of viewers of Channel 7 Perth armed themselves to help the police capture the desperado in a pine plantation, at extreme risk of death by friendly fire. One might reflect on how far the policing culture has changed since those rough-hewn days by noting the Victoria Police’s sensitive handling of Dimitrious Gargasoulas before his 2017 car rampage down Bourke Street Mall.
To keep my editor employed, please CLICK HERE to see the original…
On Saturday morning, February 9, 1963, Robinson, 23, ran amok after hearing a rumor that his mother was also his sister. (A milder version maintains that the catalyst was father George, 70, chipping him for dole-bludging). Constable Noel Iles was called to the fracas at the family’s Belmont home as the Robinsons were fighting for the son’s shotgun. Getting control of the weapon, Brian Robinson turned it on Iles and shot him in the face from a front window. Then he went outside, kicked the kneeling Iles over and shot him in the head, fatally. A pair in a passing Goggomobile Dart convertible (a 300cc microcar) stopped to look. Robinson tried for a Goggomobile getaway and shot the passenger dead when he resisted. The woman driver stayed in the car and was filmed by Channel 7’s crew, hot on the scene, smoking a cigarette in a holder with the body in a blanket slumped behind her.[1]
Robinson then commandeered a Swan taxi by whacking the driver Arthur Smith with his gun-butt. The army-trained driver got out a may-day call. He drove Robinson to the Gnangara pine plantation and deliberately bogged the taxi a couple of kilometres inside. They made off on foot and the Smith got away when Robinson hid from a police spotter plane.
When night fell the police manhunters relied on an RAAF searchlight truck and a Channel 7 Outside Broadcast Van’s studio lights and microwave communications. In this fraternal atmosphere police asked young Seven reporter Bob Cribb to broadcast a call for all available personnel to come to the plantation, armed. The police meant “off-duty police” but newsreader Lloyd Lawson called on armed citizens of every description.[2] Incredibly, the police directed Cribb to enter the plantation with the Seven van only if he had a gun. He borrowed a shotgun from his local greengrocer, additional to pen, pad and mike.
Sniper Eric Edgar Cooke, “The Night Caller”, was at large after shooting five residents in the previous five weeks Multitudes of Perth men had weapons handy to defend hearth and home. Posses arrived at the plantations in their thousands, by car, truck, motorbike, bicycle and horseback, with shotguns, rifles and pistols. The estimate was a 5000-strong force, police included and a few Amazonian women. Many police were out of uniform and none of the crowd knew what Robinson looked like. TV footage shows one street crammed end-to-end for a kilometre with armed Perth-ites. Some were in cowboy hats with rifle in one hand and pistol in the other.
Policeman Bob Masters was on the front line. “I was just astounded when I came on the back of Robbie Drew’s motorbike [was that Drew the future novelist?]. We went the full length of the road, people were right alongside each other, they had guns, it really worried me, it was terrible.” Nonetheless the police were not averse to helpers. One high-ranking officer addressed the crowd about the danger, “and if we felt uncomfortable, we were given permission to leave,” says reporter Colin Gorey.
The makeshift army “proceeded with daring abandon through deep undergrowth,” the Seven newsreader intoned. Long lines of manhunters strode forward, filmed by Channel 7’s crew in the spirit of Damien Parer on the Kokoda Track. Live outside TV in 1963 was in its infancy, so the the black and white action footage was stunning. Reporter Cribb ad-libbed for three hours, including such sub-judice gems as “The mad dog killer is holed up in this bush”.[3]
The most solid account is by retired WA Police Commissioner Brian Bull, who as a young detective helped organise the manhunt. He recounts that as they approached the abandoned taxi a shot rang out – but from a fumbling policeman. During the night the perimeter was cordoned and by daylight police brought in a “native tracker” Mick Wilson, who had been holidaying, from Port Hedland. Bull’s job was to closely protect the tracker from the gunman, with six police 200m in reserve behind: “I admired the courage of Mick who was completely exposed if we came close to the offender and he was the one most likely to be fired upon.” I find no report that Mick got an award. After many hours Mick said the killer was near. Everyone closed up and then several shots rang out. But they were from the blocking line of police ahead who brought down the fleeing Robinson.
In his understated police way, Bull said his group hadn’t realised they were walking into the path of the massed public and police gunnies. “It became evident that we had been exposed to considerable risk from ‘friendly fire’ and it was fortunate that the offender was shot before many police and armed members of the public opened fire,” he concluded. Policeman Bob Masters fired that final shot: ”If I hadn’t, I believe a lot of other people would have been badly injured.”
Robinson was convicted in May 1963 and hanged on January 20, 1964.
Reporter Cribb, a colourful and likeable guy, was later fired by Seven three or four times and re-instated, doubtless thanks to the channel’s scoop of the century. Cameraman Peter Goodall wrote: ”It was crazy. We all got back to Seven and were elated. Even invited to the board room for champagne. Some crazy memories….mmm!”
This might all whet your appetite for Fremantle’s history of floggings, the western city today being one of the country’s most woke.
Flogging was on the WA statutes until 1992, but the last thrashing involved a 19-year-old shop assistant in 1962. He got two years and 12 strokes of the birch for consensual sex with a 14-year-old, aka “unlawful carnal knowledge”. He appealed the sentence but the aptly named Chief Justice Mr Justice Wolff said it was “richly deserved”. A QC, Tom Percy, commented, “He wasn’t old enough to vote, or even have a drink, but in the eyes of the law he was old enough to be flogged.” Who did the flogging and how it was carried out remains a state secret, although we do know the Brand Liberal government imported the birch rod specially from England. The previous birching was said to have been in the late 1950s.
The last full-on flogging with a cat-o-nine tails in Fremantle Gaol involved robber Sydney Sutton 43, for escaping gaol (he made a key in the workshop) and raping a 12-year-old schoolgirl. That flogging took place on June 22, 1943, not 1843.[4] He’d also committed rape during an escape from the lower-security Barton’s Mill. Sutton was inside Fremantle since 1937 for housebreaking, robbery with violence and for a movie-style shoot-out with detectives on Canning Bridge. His terms totalled 81 years. Not lacking initiative, he briefly enjoyed three weeks’ freedom in 1939-40 as well, by escaping in a brown felt hat from a working party that was burning off grass outside. Gaol was “a hell of a life”, he complained to the beak, Mr H.J. Craig.
For the 1943 escape and rape, Sutton was sentenced to life and 25 lashes of the cat. Fear immediately sent him into a medical collapse. Perth lacked a hangman/flogger but scores of Perth and Eastern States police, warders and amateurs clamoured for the job. Newspapers printed letters from volunteers pressing their case.
Sutton was tied to the triangle with hands above his head and ankles secured. The Mirrorreported,
Though he has shown contempt for every other form of punishment, a flogging was more than even a hardened criminal of Sutton’s type could stand. And by the time the cat had bitten into his back 17 times, a doctor examined the writhing, moaning man and decided that was all he could bear for the present. His back, streaked with the marks of the lashes, was carefully tended by the doctor and Sutton was taken away. [I hope the doctor bulk-billed].
As news of the flogging seeped through the prison, the effect on the other prisoners was profound. Of all jail punishments, none has a greater effect on a man’s fellow prisoners – and presumably his former associates outside – than a flogging. It is intended as a deterrent, grisly and fear-impelling, but not sadistic.
After a public outcry, Sutton was let off the remaining eight lashes. In fact, undeterred by that ‘non-sadistic’ experience, he was caught hiding in the prison roof space on July 22, exactly a month later.
Perth people in the 1960s had few degrees of separation, and even now you need to watch what you say and to whom. As a reporter, I knew Labor Deputy Opposition Leader Herb Graham a bit. He was not only an anti-hanging and anti-flogging crusader in the Assembly, but had actually seen Sutton in gaol a few months after the flogging. (Graham was truly a political veteran, having entered State Parliament in early 1943). After seeing Sutton, Graham brought a cat o’ nine tails into the Assembly “for the edification of members”, much like Prime Minister Morrison arriving in the House three years ago with a lump of coal.
In a 1965 Assembly debate, Graham said, “That person [Sutton] had the look of a mad animal. I could almost see him snarl as we approached him. I suggest that was brought about by what he had to suffer in the way of the lashing.”[5]
Flogging was not an abstruse issue in 1965. Perth gays, for example, were liable not merely to a maximum 14 years hard labor for buggery, but a whipping. “Gross indecency” involved only three years, but also with a whipping. Buggery convictions occurred from time to time — a former high-school classmate of mine was charged after a gay fancy-dress party where revellers dressed like nuns. Sentences were fairly token but the public disgrace was severe.
Deputy Premier Charlie Court brought in a Bill to tone down the words using in sentencing murderers. Judges heretofore used to say that the “prisoner be returned to his former custody, and that at a time and place to be appointed by the Governor, he be hanged by the neck until he is dead.”
But thanks to Liberal compassion, the wording was to be changed to “suffer death in the manner prescribed by law”. No change ensued to isolation, hangman imported from interstate, a padre’s supplications, calculation of drops, noose, and greased trapdoor hinge. The 1965 Bill also varied the whippings procedure, to substitute a cane or leather strap for the hard-to-procure birch rods.
Charlie Court didn’t take Graham seriously, saying the Bill was just legislative tidying-up:
Court: We have heard the member with this standard speech of his so often.
Graham: No, it is different every time I make it.
Court chided that in the election earlier that year, hardly a constituent had raised the issue of hanging. Moreover, parents of young girls were keen on rapists getting whipped.
Court continued, “It is easy to get emotionally worked up over these matters but the Government feels they have to be considered and decided in a calmer atmosphere. The Government is keeping this matter constantly under review in a sensible and responsible way.” In the event, WA’s capital punishment law lingered for 19 years, including the eight years of Court’s premiership, until Labor’s WA Inc. Premier Brian Burke grasped the nettle in 1984. Corporal punishment stayed on the books till 1992.
Tony Thomas has a new book published this month, Come to think of it – essays to tickle the brain. Get your copy on-line here from Connor Court.
[1] A bystander took offence and police had to break up his fist-fight with the cameraman.
[2] Cribb was originally a cadet at The West Australian, as I was, but I was some years older and don’t remember much about him.
[3] Cribb and Channel 7 were sued for defamation and contempt of court over the comment, and Robinson’s defence lawyer tried to use such quotes to secure a mistrial.
[4] The previous WA flogging with the cat was in 1933 and the flogger was a policeman.
[5] 25/11/65.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Climate Campaign Loses Momentum As World Fights Coronavirus

The climate campaign is at risk of stalling as the pandemic and global economic crisis deepens .
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde once spent more time talking about climate change than inflation .
It happened during a press conference in Frankfurt less than two months ago , but already feels like something from another century—or planet .
In the days since , the novel coronavirus and an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia have rocked financial markets and brought the world to the brink of an economic crisis .
Understandably , these two extraordinary events have grabbed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerning climate news has not slowed… The United Nations won ’ t hold any face-to-face climate change talks until at least the end of April , as part of the effort to contain the coronavirus , according to Climate Change News .
An EU-China climate summit due to take place at the end of the month has also been postponed .
Such events are essential for governments to draft agreements in advance of the UN ’ s next global climate meeting , scheduled to take place in Glasgow in November .
The COP26 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signatories are supposed to present even more ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions than called for under the 2015 Paris Agreement .
So far , only the Marshall Islands , Suriname , Norway and Moldova have presented such plans , according to the World Resources Institute .
The climate policy push is at risk of stalling on a national level as well .
The U.K. scaled back plans to put environment at the center of its budget last week .
Spain , which has made climate change a central part of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for at least two weeks and declared a state of emergency over the weekend .
Despite the temporary setbacks , European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen said last week that the European Union remains committed to its Green Deal , a moonshot plan to make the bloc carbon neutral by 2050 .
“ Clearly we can not ignore what ’ s going on globally , ” said EU Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius on Bloomberg TV .
The global “ climate emergency didn ’ t go anywhere .
But transforming the economy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pieces to move in perfect coordination over an extended period of time .
Until now , public policy and private investment have pushed each other to advance climate goals .
Whether all the stakeholders involved can deal with the immediate shocks while keeping long-term goals in sight remains to be seen .
“ Now we have coronavirus and every three or four years there will be a significant shock that governments will need to focus on over the short term , ” said John Ferguson , director of macroeconomics at the Economist Intelligence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one ’ s fault , but that can throw certain countries off course .
Let ’ s remember this is a goal about 2050.
” The post Climate Campaign Loses Momentum As World Fights Coronavirus appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

The climate campaign is at risk of stalling as the pandemic and global economic crisis deepens.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde once spent more time talking about climate change than inflation. It happened during a press conference in Frankfurt less than two months ago, but already feels like something from another century—or planet.
In the days since, the novel coronavirus and an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia have rocked financial markets and brought the world to the brink of an economic crisis.
Understandably, these two extraordinary events have grabbed global attention. Yet the trickle of concerning climate news has not slowed…
The United Nations won’t hold any face-to-face climate change talks until at least the end of April, as part of the effort to contain the coronavirus, according to Climate Change News. An EU-China climate summit due to take place at the end of the month has also been postponed.
Such events are essential for governments to draft agreements in advance of the UN’s next global climate meeting, scheduled to take place in Glasgow in November. The COP26 conference is particularly critical, as all signatories are supposed to present even more ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions than called for under the 2015 Paris Agreement. So far, only the Marshall Islands, Suriname, Norway and Moldova have presented such plans, according to the World Resources Institute.
The climate policy push is at risk of stalling on a national level as well. The U.K. scaled back plans to put environment at the center of its budget last week. Spain, which has made climate change a central part of its political agenda, halted all legislative activity for at least two weeks and declared a state of emergency over the weekend.
Despite the temporary setbacks, European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen said last week that the European Union remains committed to its Green Deal, a moonshot plan to make the bloc carbon neutral by 2050.
“Clearly we cannot ignore what’s going on globally,” said EU Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius on Bloomberg TV. The global “climate emergency didn’t go anywhere.
But transforming the economy is a titanic effort, requiring all the pieces to move in perfect coordination over an extended period of time. Until now, public policy and private investment have pushed each other to advance climate goals. Whether all the stakeholders involved can deal with the immediate shocks while keeping long-term goals in sight remains to be seen.
“Now we have coronavirus and every three or four years there will be a significant shock that governments will need to focus on over the short term,” said John Ferguson, director of macroeconomics at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “It’s no one’s fault, but that can throw certain countries off course. Let’s remember this is a goal about 2050.”
The post Climate Campaign Loses Momentum As World Fights Coronavirus appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
https://ift.tt/38Y87Vp
March 17, 2020 at 05:00AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Help NASA Design a Robot to Dig on the Moon

Help NASA Design a Robot to Dig on the Moon A close-up view of the bucket drums on Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot ( RASSOR ) in the regolith bin inside Swamp Works at NASA ’ s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on June 5 , 2019 .
Digging on the Moon is a hard job for a robot .
It has to be able to collect and move lunar soil , or regolith , but anything launching to the Moon needs to be lightweight .
The problem is excavators rely on their weight and traction to dig on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but is looking for ideas to make it better .
Once matured , robotic excavators could help NASA establish a sustainable presence on the Moon under the Artemis lunar exploration program , a few years after landing astronauts on the surface .
Engineers have tested various configurations of a Moon-digging robot called RASSOR – short for Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot – in a large lunar simulant sand box at NASA ’ s Kennedy Space Center in Florida .
Now , NASA is asking the public to help design a new bucket @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that captures the regolith and keeps it from falling out .
The regolith can then be transported to a designated location where reverse rotation of the drum allows it to fall back out .
RASSOR ’ s current bucket drums are hollow cylinders positioned on either end of the robot , with scoops around the circumference of the cylinders .
The robot digs in opposing ends toward the other , which balances the excavation forces and makes it easier to dig .
NASA ’ s RASSOR Bucket Drum Design Challenge is open through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sponsored by NASA ’ s Space Technology Mission Directorate ( STMD ) , seeks a better shape for RASSOR ’ s bucket drum and baffling , or sheet metal inside of it that can capture and hold more regolith .
GrabCAD , a website people can join and post 3D models of almost anything , hosts the challenge and eligible individuals , with an idea can submit original designs that have not been previously published , exhibited or put into production for this important part of RASSOR .
“ We ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and they were very successful , ” said Jason Schuler , a robotics engineer in the Exploration Research and Technology Programs at Kennedy .
“ As a repository for computer-aided design , the platform helps us reach professional designers , engineers , manufacturers and students outside of the space industry who may have an idea that could benefit NASA.
” Successful designs for this competition will have a fill ratio of higher than 50 % , which means the design ’ s interior volume will be more than half full with regolith when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hold .
“ With RASSOR , we ’ re no longer relying on the traction or the weight of the robot .
It is possible to excavate on the Moon or Mars with a really lightweight robot , ” Schuler said .
“ RASSOR is excavation and transportation all in one , but we ’ d like to improve the design.
” At the end of the competition , the design entries will be judged on a set of criteria , including width of the scoops , bucket drum mass , diameter and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ practicality of the design .
In addition to the CAD files , entries must include a short description of how the design works .
A total of $ 7,000 will be awarded for the top five submissions .
For more information about prize amounts and how to enter , visit : The challenge is funded by NASA ’ s Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative within STMD , which champions technologies needed to live on and explore the Moon .
NASA Tournament Lab , part of STMD ’ s Prizes and Challenges program , manages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use of public competitions and crowdsourcing as tools to advance NASA R & D and other mission needs .
Learn more about opportunities to participate in your space program via NASA prizes and challenges : www.nasa.gov/solve Artemis includes sending a suite of new science instruments and technology demonstrations to study the Moon , landing the first woman and next man on the lunar surface by 2024 , and establishing a sustained presence by 2028 .
The agency will leverage its Artemis experience and technologies to prepare for the next giant leap – sending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technology project being developed by Swamp Works at Kennedy that could be used on the Moon or Mars .

From NASA
March 16, 2020
Help NASA Design a Robot to Dig on the Moon
A close-up view of the bucket drums on Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) in the regolith bin inside Swamp Works at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on June 5, 2019.
Credits: NASA/Kim Shiflett
By Linda Herridge
NASA’s John F. Kennedy Space Center
Digging on the Moon is a hard job for a robot. It has to be able to collect and move lunar soil, or regolith, but anything launching to the Moon needs to be lightweight. The problem is excavators rely on their weight and traction to dig on Earth. NASA has a solution, but is looking for ideas to make it better. Once matured, robotic excavators could help NASA establish a sustainable presence on the Moon under the Artemis lunar exploration program, a few years after landing astronauts on the surface.
Engineers have tested various configurations of a Moon-digging robot called RASSOR – short for Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot – in a large lunar simulant sand box at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Now, NASA is asking the public to help design a new bucket drum, the portion of the robot that captures the regolith and keeps it from falling out. The regolith can then be transported to a designated location where reverse rotation of the drum allows it to fall back out.
RASSOR’s current bucket drums are hollow cylinders positioned on either end of the robot, with scoops around the circumference of the cylinders. The robot digs in opposing ends toward the other, which balances the excavation forces and makes it easier to dig.
NASA’s RASSOR Bucket Drum Design Challenge is open through April 20, 2020. The challenge, sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), seeks a better shape for RASSOR’s bucket drum and baffling, or sheet metal inside of it that can capture and hold more regolith. GrabCAD, a website people can join and post 3D models of almost anything, hosts the challenge and eligible individuals, with an idea can submit original designs that have not been previously published, exhibited or put into production for this important part of RASSOR.
“We’ve held challenges on GrabCAD in the past and they were very successful,” said Jason Schuler, a robotics engineer in the Exploration Research and Technology Programs at Kennedy. “As a repository for computer-aided design, the platform helps us reach professional designers, engineers, manufacturers and students outside of the space industry who may have an idea that could benefit NASA.”
Successful designs for this competition will have a fill ratio of higher than 50%, which means the design’s interior volume will be more than half full with regolith when it reached the maximum amount it can hold.
“With RASSOR, we’re no longer relying on the traction or the weight of the robot. It is possible to excavate on the Moon or Mars with a really lightweight robot,” Schuler said.
“RASSOR is excavation and transportation all in one, but we’d like to improve the design.”
At the end of the competition, the design entries will be judged on a set of criteria, including width of the scoops, bucket drum mass, diameter and length, volume of regolith captured and practicality of the design. In addition to the CAD files, entries must include a short description of how the design works.
A total of $7,000 will be awarded for the top five submissions. For more information about prize amounts and how to enter, visit:
https://grabcad.com/challenges/nasa-regolith-advanced-surface-systems-operations-robot-rassor-bucket-drum-design-challenge
The challenge is funded by NASA’s Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative within STMD, which champions technologies needed to live on and explore the Moon. NASA Tournament Lab, part of STMD’s Prizes and Challenges program, manages the challenge. The program supports the use of public competitions and crowdsourcing as tools to advance NASA R&D and other mission needs.
Learn more about opportunities to participate in your space program via NASA prizes and challenges: www.nasa.gov/solve
Artemis includes sending a suite of new science instruments and technology demonstrations to study the Moon, landing the first woman and next man on the lunar surface by 2024, and establishing a sustained presence by 2028. The agency will leverage its Artemis experience and technologies to prepare for the next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars. RASSOR is a technology project being developed by Swamp Works at Kennedy that could be used on the Moon or Mars.
Last Updated: March 16, 2020
Editor: Linda Herridge


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Coronavirus: Here’s What The Scientists Don’t Know That Could Be Key To Managing This Pandemic

What we don ’ t know is as important as what we do when it comes to thinking about the coronavirus .
The strategic planners hunkered down in Whitehall will have at the core of their operation a long list headed “ known unknowns ” .
It will help to inform virtually every decision they make today and in the weeks to come .
The concept was popularised by the former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld in the run up to the invasion of Iraq .
Quizzed at a press conference about the lack of evidence linking Saddam Hussein to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reporters : “ There are things we know we know .
We also know there are known unknowns ; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
” Mr Rumsfeld may have given the concept a bad name but listing known unknowns continues to be used by strategic planners across the globe .
A more positive example , revealed by The Telegraph in March 2018 , was the inclusion of “ Disease X ” , a classic known unknown , in the World Health Organization ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pose a serious risk of sparking a major international public health emergency .
“ Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease ” , the WHO said prophetically at the time .
Anxiety over the UK response to the new coronavirus has been caused in part by poor communication but also because we all want certainly in an area where – if the truth be known – there still exists very considerable doubt .
But paradoxically perhaps , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ known because it helps us understand the decision making of others .
So here are what experts believe are the key known unknowns about the coronavirus as things stand .
Professor Francois Balloux , chair in computational biology at University College London , says that for an epidemiologist , the two biggest unknowns are the virus ’ s ability ( or not ) to adapt to the seasons and the immunity ( if any ) it gives those who are infected and recover .
“ There are two major unknowns at this stage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what extent Covid-19 transmission will be seasonal .
And We don ’ t know if Covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity ” , he said in a viral thread on Twitter .
“ How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown .
Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived ( i.e .
months ) .
If this were to be confirmed , it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic .
“ Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘ flattening the curve ’ and ‘ herd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said there was some indication that the virus may wax and wane with the seasons but that it would be at least a year before that could be said with any real certainty .
“ At the moment there is too little data and too many other variables going on to predict its seasonality with any certainty ” , he said .
But the “ critical variable ” in predicting the course of the pandemic was acquired immunity – how long you are protected once you are recovered .
Asked whether a person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said on Monday : “ In any infectious disease there are cases where people can catch something again [ but ] they ’ re rare .
“ There ’ s nothing to suggest that this is a common occurrence in this disease but we are learning as we go along.
” Professor Chris Whitty , the chief medical officer , added : “ Even in diseases which do not have long-lasting immunity there ’ s usually a short period of immunity and that ’ s enough for a season.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the University of East Anglia , said another major gap in knowledge about the virus was the extent to which children spread it .
“ Infection in kids is still a very big deal , not just for health but for planning purposes ” , he said .
“ We know they tend only to get very mild illness but we are not sure to what extent they spread it to others .
“ With the flu children play a major role in passing round the virus but with the coronavirus it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we knew , for instance , that they were unlikely to infect their grandparents that would be very useful.
” It is this known unknown which probably explains the government ’ s reluctance to close schools .
Some argue that should be done as a precaution but if you don ’ t know what role children play in spreading the disease it could also make matters considerably worse .
Also relevant is the fact that an estimated 30 per cent of the NHS and social care workforce in Britain have school age children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may take them out of work too .
Viruses of all types are known to mutate over time , some becoming more virulent and infectious.This is also a major known unknown for coronavirus but most experts think it unlikely to mutate at the same pace as viruses like influenza .
“ Coronaviruses are made up of RNA rather than DNA and have much better fidelity or stability ” , said Prof Hunter .
Less optimistically he added : “ What I am much more worried about is all the other coronaviruses out there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have had Sars , Mers and now Covid-19 .
Imagine if you got one as infectious as this but with a mortality rate like Sars or Mers .
We are playing with fire allowing wet markets to continue.
” Michael Tildesley , associate professor in infectious disease modelling at the University of Warwick , said that another known unknown was the mortality rate for Covid-19 .
“ One of the key challenges that we have with trying to predict the future spread of the disease is that there is still significant uncertainty regarding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who may only have mild symptoms ( or no symptoms at all ) and do not report infection .
“ This impacts our estimates of the mortality rate of the disease as if the number of mild , undetected , cases is high , then the true mortality rate is significantly lower than one has been reported.
” The post Coronavirus : Here ’ s What The Scientists Don ’ t Know That Could Be Key To Managing This Pandemic appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

What we don’t know is as important as what we do when it comes to thinking about the coronavirus.
Anxiety over the UK response to the new coronavirus has been caused in part by poor communication CREDIT: AFP
The strategic planners hunkered down in Whitehall will have at the core of their operation a long list headed “known unknowns”. It will help to inform virtually every decision they make today and in the weeks to come.
The concept was popularised by the former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld in the run up to the invasion of Iraq. Quizzed at a press conference about the lack of evidence linking Saddam Hussein to weapons of mass destruction, he told reporters: “There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.”
Mr Rumsfeld may have given the concept a bad name but listing known unknowns continues to be used by strategic planners across the globe.
A more positive example, revealed by The Telegraph in March 2018, was the inclusion of “Disease X”, a classic known unknown, in the World Health Organization’s (WHO) list of diseases that pose a serious risk of sparking a major international public health emergency.
“Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease”, the WHO said prophetically at the time.
Anxiety over the UK response to the new coronavirus has been caused in part by poor communication but also because we all want certainly in an area where – if the truth be known – there still exists very considerable doubt.
But paradoxically perhaps, it is calming to know what is not known because it helps us understand the decision making of others. So here are what experts believe are the key known unknowns about the coronavirus as things stand.
Seasonality and acquired immunity
Professor Francois Balloux, chair in computational biology at University College London, says that for an epidemiologist, the two biggest unknowns are the virus’s ability (or not) to adapt to the seasons and the immunity (if any) it gives those who are infected and recover.
“There are two major unknowns at this stage. We don’t know to what extent Covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. And We don’t know if Covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity”, he said in a viral thread on Twitter.
“How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic.
“Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches”.
Prof Balloux said there was some indication that the virus may wax and wane with the seasons but that it would be at least a year before that could be said with any real certainty.
“At the moment there is too little data and too many other variables going on to predict its seasonality with any certainty”, he said.
But the “critical variable” in predicting the course of the pandemic was acquired immunity – how long you are protected once you are recovered.
Asked whether a person can get coronavirus twice, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said on Monday: “In any infectious disease there are cases where people can catch something again [but] they’re rare.
“There’s nothing to suggest that this is a common occurrence in this disease but we are learning as we go along.”
Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, added: “Even in diseases which do not have long-lasting immunity there’s usually a short period of immunity and that’s enough for a season.”
Children and asymptomatic infection
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said another major gap in knowledge about the virus was the extent to which children spread it.
“Infection in kids is still a very big deal, not just for health but for planning purposes”, he said. “We know they tend only to get very mild illness but we are not sure to what extent they spread it to others.
“With the flu children play a major role in passing round the virus but with the coronavirus it is not at all clear. If we knew, for instance, that they were unlikely to infect their grandparents that would be very useful.”
It is this known unknown which probably explains the government’s reluctance to close schools.
Some argue that should be done as a precaution but if you don’t know what role children play in spreading the disease it could also make matters considerably worse.
Also relevant is the fact that an estimated 30 per cent of the NHS and social care workforce in Britain have school age children. Close the schools, and you may take them out of work too.
Mutation
Viruses of all types are known to mutate over time, some becoming more virulent and infectious.This is also a major known unknown for coronavirus but most experts think it unlikely to mutate at the same pace as viruses like influenza.
“Coronaviruses are made up of RNA rather than DNA and have much better fidelity or stability”, said Prof Hunter.
Less optimistically he added: “What I am much more worried about is all the other coronaviruses out there in bats and other animals. We have had Sars, Mers and now Covid-19. Imagine if you got one as infectious as this but with a mortality rate like Sars or Mers. We are playing with fire allowing wet markets to continue.”
Mortality rates
Michael Tildesley, associate professor in infectious disease modelling at the University of Warwick, said that another known unknown was the mortality rate for Covid-19.
“One of the key challenges that we have with trying to predict the future spread of the disease is that there is still significant uncertainty regarding the number of individuals in the population who may only have mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all) and do not report infection.
“This impacts our estimates of the mortality rate of the disease as if the number of mild, undetected, cases is high, then the true mortality rate is significantly lower than one has been reported.”
The post Coronavirus: Here’s What The Scientists Don’t Know That Could Be Key To Managing This Pandemic appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
https://ift.tt/39StHvH
March 17, 2020 at 04:10AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--John Redwood: Why The Government’s Response To The Virus Can’t Be Settled By The Science – With Deci

Advisers advise , Minister decide .
In a flourishing democracy elected officials make the decisions in government , based on the best possible advice from unelected officials and a supporting team of experts .
Some of the experts are inside government , some hired in for the task , and some from outside offering free advice .
The Minister has the difficult task of deciding what advice to request and take seriously , and the even more difficult task from time to time of telling a particular group of experts they are wrong .
Let me hasten to reassure my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great experts around .
If I were to fall seriously ill I would want a good doctor to advise and treat me .
If I want to extend my house I want a good structural engineer and builder to turn my vision into a strong and practical construction .
I like my experts to be learned , to be specialist in their field .
Above all I want them to have a high probability of being right for me to trust their judgement .
It has been fashionable for many years to claim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more matters are settled by experts , free from political interference .
Cries go up .
Let us settle interest rates and banking rules far away from Ministerial scrutiny in independent central banks .
Let us decide flood protections and water management in independent environmental agencies .
Let us decide fishing rules in closed meetings with expert advice in the EU rather than making them at home , given the cross-border migrations of fish and boats .
The truth is that in many fields experts have let us down , coming to wrong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Independent central banks watched helplessly or encouraged banking collapses in 2008-9 .
Their bad actions and inactions followed an agreed common set of mistakes on both sides of the Atlantic in allowing too much bank credit and geared derivatives to come into being .
The UK Environment Agency presided over the mass flooding of the Somerset Levels .
The Common Fishing Policy degraded our fish stocks and demolished much of our fishing industry .
These and other errors turned people off experts who get things wrong .
It has not turned them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vital information and judgements to contribute to secure our lives .
In each of these cases , the elected officials , the politicians , had to take back control or intervene to make things better .
In 2008-9 , the UK Chancellor and other leading finance ministers rightly made the central banks cut interest rates faster and earlier than they planned to start to turn the crisis .
They followed up by taking a role in the decisions over Quantitative easing which became an important part of the recovery policy .
The flooding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Paterson , then the Secretary of State , bravely rejecting the no pumps/no dredging policy of the Environment Agency , insisting on the previous policy which successfully controlled water levels in subsequent periods of heavy rain .
The UK public rose up against the Common Fishing Policy and other similar laws and decisions of the EU and demanded their return to UK democratic control in the referendum .
Today , we witness another important intersection between experts and elected officials over the handling of the pandemic .
So far the constitutional niceties have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on internal expert opinion , which in turn draws on the latest knowledge and research globally through the World Health Organisation .
The Prime Minister and Health Secretary make the final decisions based on the best scientific advice .
Some say the expert advice should take over and drive the whole process .
That is to misunderstand the nature of the advice , the state of the science and the complexity of the issues to be decided .
The official spokesmen explaining the medical and scientific background rightly stress what they do not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know .
The scientific community can not yet provide a specific treatment for this disease nor a vaccination against it .
Knowledge is still imperfect about how long it can be in someone before symptoms show , how it is transmitted , why it is sometimes very dangerous but normally not for a younger healthy person , whether it can be caught twice by the same person , and whether someone does build immunity to it by having it .
This means there is plenty of scope for expert disagreement about what the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials need to follow the public interest by adding to the discussion their understanding of what the public will accept .
Politicians have to assess which controls are realistically enforceable , how people might get round them , and what the right balance is when considering economic damage on the one hand and the need to restrict activity to control the virus spread on the other .
Many of these matters are judgements , to be made on the basis of imperfect information .
There does need to be debate amongst experts as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of what we are facing .
The advantage of the elected official making the ultimate decision is one of accountability .
Through Parliament , public debates and the wider media our elected officials are much more exposed to the day to day realities of the wider public who need to live under the new controls and need to have confidence in them .
As someone who has been a senior adviser in government seeking to influence Prime Ministerial decisions , and a senior Minister in government making decisions , and as someone who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company and a professional adviser to business , I am well aware of the need for good advice .
I am also well aware of the need for the ultimate decision to be made by someone who can weigh the wider context and seek to prioritise the often conflicting aims of policy .
It is wrong to say this can all be settled by the science and the decisions all taken by the epidemiologists .
The post John Redwood : Why The Government ’ s Response To The Virus Can ’ t Be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Made By Epidemiologists appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Advisers advise, Minister decide. In a flourishing democracy elected officials make the decisions in government, based on the best possible advice from unelected officials and a supporting team of experts.
Some of the experts are inside government, some hired in for the task, and some from outside offering free advice. The Minister has the difficult task of deciding what advice to request and take seriously, and the even more difficult task from time to time of telling a particular group of experts they are wrong.
Let me hasten to reassure my readers that I think there are some great experts around. If I were to fall seriously ill I would want a good doctor to advise and treat me. If I want to extend my house I want a good structural engineer and builder to turn my vision into a strong and practical construction. I like my experts to be learned, to be specialist in their field. Above all I want them to have a high probability of being right for me to trust their judgement.
It has been fashionable for many years to claim that we will be better off if more matters are settled by experts, free from political interference. Cries go up. Let us settle interest rates and banking rules far away from Ministerial scrutiny in independent central banks. Let us decide flood protections and water management in independent environmental agencies. Let us decide fishing rules in closed meetings with expert advice in the EU rather than making them at home, given the cross-border migrations of fish and boats.
The truth is that in many fields experts have let us down, coming to wrong conclusions and making or influencing bad judgements. Independent central banks watched helplessly or encouraged banking collapses in 2008-9. Their bad actions and inactions followed an agreed common set of mistakes on both sides of the Atlantic in allowing too much bank credit and geared derivatives to come into being.
The UK Environment Agency presided over the mass flooding of the Somerset Levels. The Common Fishing Policy degraded our fish stocks and demolished much of our fishing industry. These and other errors turned people off experts who get things wrong. It has not turned them off the idea that good experts have vital information and judgements to contribute to secure our lives.
In each of these cases, the elected officials, the politicians, had to take back control or intervene to make things better. In 2008-9, the UK Chancellor and other leading finance ministers rightly made the central banks cut interest rates faster and earlier than they planned to start to turn the crisis. They followed up by taking a role in the decisions over Quantitative easing which became an important part of the recovery policy.
The flooding of the Somerset levels led to Owen Paterson, then the Secretary of State, bravely rejecting the no pumps/no dredging policy of the Environment Agency, insisting on the previous policy which successfully controlled water levels in subsequent periods of heavy rain. The UK public rose up against the Common Fishing Policy and other similar laws and decisions of the EU and demanded their return to UK democratic control in the referendum.
Today, we witness another important intersection between experts and elected officials over the handling of the pandemic. So far the constitutional niceties have been observed. The Government relies heavily on internal expert opinion, which in turn draws on the latest knowledge and research globally through the World Health Organisation. The Prime Minister and Health Secretary make the final decisions based on the best scientific advice.
Some say the expert advice should take over and drive the whole process. That is to misunderstand the nature of the advice, the state of the science and the complexity of the issues to be decided. The official spokesmen explaining the medical and scientific background rightly stress what they do not yet know as well as what they know. The scientific community cannot yet provide a specific treatment for this disease nor a vaccination against it.
Knowledge is still imperfect about how long it can be in someone before symptoms show, how it is transmitted, why it is sometimes very dangerous but normally not for a younger healthy person, whether it can be caught twice by the same person, and whether someone does build immunity to it by having it. This means there is plenty of scope for expert disagreement about what the right response must be.
The elected officials need to follow the public interest by adding to the discussion their understanding of what the public will accept. Politicians have to assess which controls are realistically enforceable, how people might get round them, and what the right balance is when considering economic damage on the one hand and the need to restrict activity to control the virus spread on the other.
Many of these matters are judgements, to be made on the basis of imperfect information. There does need to be debate amongst experts as they rush to reach a fuller understanding of what we are facing. The advantage of the elected official making the ultimate decision is one of accountability. Through Parliament, public debates and the wider media our elected officials are much more exposed to the day to day realities of the wider public who need to live under the new controls and need to have confidence in them.
As someone who has been a senior adviser in government seeking to influence Prime Ministerial decisions, and a senior Minister in government making decisions, and as someone who has been an executive chairman of a company and a professional adviser to business, I am well aware of the need for good advice.
I am also well aware of the need for the ultimate decision to be made by someone who can weigh the wider context and seek to prioritise the often conflicting aims of policy. It is wrong to say this can all be settled by the science and the decisions all taken by the epidemiologists.
The post John Redwood: Why The Government’s Response To The Virus Can’t Be Settled By The Science – With Decisions Made By Epidemiologists appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
https://ift.tt/2U7HPdS
March 17, 2020 at 04:10AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--POLAR ICE LOSS – CHECK THE FACTS

POLAR ICE LOSS – CHECK THE FACTS

`` The claim that the Greenland icecap has been losing ice at a faster rate than in the 1990s is @ @ @ @ @ also a red herring and has no bearing on future rates of loss .
In @ @ @ @ @ Greenland had cooled significantly between 1958 and 2001 '' '' Unsurprisingly during this period of @ @ @ @ @ .
Since 2001 , temperatures have recovered to levels generally seen in the 1930s and @ @ @ @ @ , with a resultant increase in ice loss . ''

"The claim that the Greenland icecap has been losing ice at a faster rate than in the 1990s is true, but it is also a red herring and has no bearing on future rates of loss. In 2003, scientists reported that Greenland had cooled significantly between 1958 and 2001"
"Unsurprisingly during this period of cooling ice loss slowed markedly. Since 2001, temperatures have recovered to levels generally seen in the 1930s and 40s (Fig 2), with a resultant increase in ice loss."


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Descent of Man: Britain’s Suicidal Renewable Energy Policy Lays A Path To Poverty

Britain is reaping the sorry rewards of its wind power obsession , with spiralling power prices and an increasingly unreliable @ @ @ @ @ August last year we reported on a mass blackout that struck Britain , when an @ @ @ @ @ down tools : Blackout Nation : Wind Power Output Collapse Leaves Millions of Brits Totally @ @ @ @

Britain is reaping the sorry rewards of its wind power obsession, with spiralling power prices and an increasingly unreliable power supply. Back in August last year we reported on a mass blackout that struck Britain, when an offshore wind farm decided to down tools: Blackout Nation: Wind Power Output Collapse Leaves Millions of Brits Totally Powerless […]
via STOP THESE THINGS
https://ift.tt/2Qluttc
March 17, 2020 at 01:33AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--They Want To Cause a Worldwide Depression Over This

Millions of Americans are already out of work due to COVID panic shutdowns , and COVID alarmists want that number @ @ @ @ @ .
How many tens of millions of people are they hoping to kill with a @ @ @ @ @ seriously wrong is going on here .

Millions of Americans are already out of work due to COVID panic shutdowns, and COVID alarmists want that number to increase that number sharply. How many tens of millions of people are they hoping to kill with a worldwide depression?
Cases in U.S. | CDC
Something very seriously wrong is going on here.


Southern Weather Discovery

Handwriting recognition casts new light on climate change from NIWA on Vimeo .
Be a volunteer !
Check it out @ @ @ @ @ Watts Up With That ?

Handwriting recognition casts new light on climate change from NIWA on Vimeo. Be a volunteer! Check it out here. HT/Steven Mosher
via Watts Up With That?
https://ift.tt/2wepy6z
March 17, 2020 at 12:58AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Doctors in West Australia call for closure of state borders

I seem to have the uncanny ability to predict what frontline experts will recommend days in advance .
It ’ s not genius .
Just medical training and that the solution to this is so bleeding obvious , and politicians are still 2 to 3 weeks behind an exploding epidemic of an inanimate nucleic acid code .
WA hospitals call for state border closures to deal with coronavirus fears ( COVID-19 ) Top doctors across WA ’ s biggest hospitals are sensationally calling for the state to effectively close its borders to protect West Australians from the coronavirus pandemic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ West Live to be discussed exclusively on this morning ’ s show , it can be revealed the Combined Medical Leads Advisory Group has raised concerns about the “ extremely limited ” availability of testing infrastructure and supplies in WA .
The group , which includes senior medicos from FSH , RPH and SCGH , also warns there is “ limited evidence of effective anti-viral treatment ” , “ no effective vaccine ” and that rationing is already in place at hospitals .
It recommends that to “ flatten the curve ” that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolation restrictions to all personal interstate travel ” .
Just to spell this out , all states [ … ]

I seem to have the uncanny ability to predict what frontline experts will recommend days in advance. It’s not genius. Just medical training and that the solution to this is so bleeding obvious, and politicians are still 2 to 3 weeks behind an exploding epidemic of an inanimate nucleic acid code.
WA hospitals call for state border closures to deal with coronavirus fears (COVID-19)
Top doctors across WA’s biggest hospitals are sensationally calling for the state to effectively close its borders to protect West Australians from the coronavirus pandemic.
In a remarkable letter obtained by The West Live to be discussed exclusively on this morning’s show, it can be revealed the Combined Medical Leads Advisory Group has raised concerns about the “extremely limited” availability of testing infrastructure and supplies in WA.
The group, which includes senior medicos from FSH, RPH and SCGH, also warns there is “limited evidence of effective anti-viral treatment”, “no effective vaccine” and that rationing is already in place at hospitals.
It recommends that to “flatten the curve” that attention should be paid to “extending isolation restrictions to all personal interstate travel”.
Just to spell this out, all states […]
Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)
via JoNova
https://ift.tt/2xHogkZ
March 16, 2020 at 10:17PM