iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Matt McGrath Peddles US Megadrought Poppycock

A drought , equal to the worst to have hit the western US in recorded history , is already under way , say scientists .
Researchers say the megadrought is a naturally occurring event that started in the year 2000 and is still ongoing .
Climate change , though , is having a major impact with rising temperatures making the drought more severe .
Some researchers are more cautious , saying that it is too early to say if the region really is seeing a true megadrought .
According to the authors of this new paper , a megadrought in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that contains periods of very high severity that last longer than anything observed during the 19th or 20th centuries .
The authors say there have been around 40 drought events over the period from 800-2018 in the western US .
Of these , only four meet the criteria for a megadrought .
These were in the late 800s , the mid-1100s , the 1200s and the late 1500s .
How do researchers know what drought conditions were like in the past ?
The key to this new study is the use of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data for the past 1200 years .
The team were also able to use supporting evidence such as medieval tree stumps growing in normally wet river beds , the abandonment of settlements by indigenous civilisations at the peak of the 13th century drought , plus evidence from lake deposits indicating wildfire activity was enhanced during these drought periods .
In reality there has been nothing unusual about the recent drought in the region : As is often the case , comparisons are made with only the last few decades : The authors say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the region , Lake Powell and Lake Mead have both shrunk dramatically during the drought .
Wildfires across the region are growing in area .
`` At any given year , there ’ s over ten times more forest area burns than we would have expected in a given year , 40 years ago , '' said Dr Williams .
What they are doing , of course , is to compare rainfall with unusually wet climate of the 1980s and 90s .
They also argue that global warming has supercharged the drought : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drought .
The authors say that in the western US , temperatures have gone up by 1.2C since 2000 .
Hotter air holds more moisture and that moisture is being pulled out of the ground .
However this is to ignore the fact that it used to be much warmer than now in the American West , before it became much colder during the Little Ice Age : Far from the megadrought already being underway , the drought effectively ended nearly a decade ago .
Real megadroughts can last for a century or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
h/t Philip Bratby/Ian Magness
Today’s dose of nonsense from Matt McGrath:
A drought, equal to the worst to have hit the western US in recorded history, is already under way, say scientists.
Researchers say the megadrought is a naturally occurring event that started in the year 2000 and is still ongoing.
Climate change, though, is having a major impact with rising temperatures making the drought more severe.
Some researchers are more cautious, saying that it is too early to say if the region really is seeing a true megadrought.
According to the authors of this new paper, a megadrought in North America refers to a multi-decade event, that contains periods of very high severity that last longer than anything observed during the 19th or 20th centuries.
The authors say there have been around 40 drought events over the period from 800-2018 in the western US.
Of these, only four meet the criteria for a megadrought.
These were in the late 800s, the mid-1100s, the 1200s and the late 1500s.
How do researchers know what drought conditions were like in the past?
The key to this new study is the use of tree ring records to reconstruct soil moisture data for the past 1200 years.
The team were also able to use supporting evidence such as medieval tree stumps growing in normally wet river beds, the abandonment of settlements by indigenous civilisations at the peak of the 13th century drought, plus evidence from lake deposits indicating wildfire activity was enhanced during these drought periods.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52312260
In reality there has been nothing unusual about the recent drought in the region:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/109/pcp/60/3/1895-2020
As is often the case, comparisons are made with only the last few decades:
The authors say the two most important water reservoirs in the region, Lake Powell and Lake Mead have both shrunk dramatically during the drought. Wildfires across the region are growing in area.
"At any given year, there’s over ten times more forest area burns than we would have expected in a given year, 40 years ago," said Dr Williams.
What they are doing, of course, is to compare rainfall with unusually wet climate of the 1980s and 90s.
They also argue that global warming has supercharged the drought:
But climate change has super-charged the current drought.
The authors say that in the western US, temperatures have gone up by 1.2C since 2000. Hotter air holds more moisture and that moisture is being pulled out of the ground.
However this is to ignore the fact that it used to be much warmer than now in the American West, before it became much colder during the Little Ice Age:
HH Lamb- Climate, History and the Modern World – page 142
Far from the megadrought already being underway, the drought effectively ended nearly a decade ago.
Real megadroughts can last for a century or more, not just a decade.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/01/30/graphic-californias-droughts-in-the-past-1200-years/
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April 17, 2020 at 06:27AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Gas storage method could help next-generation clean energy vehicles

Interesting , but as ever , cost and practicality questions have to be considered .
Hydrogen has to be produced in an industrial process before it can be stored in large volumes .
On the other hand , we ’ re told fuel cells could operate at ‘ much safer pressures ’ with this method .
– – – A research team led by Northwestern University has designed and synthesized new materials with ultrahigh porosity and surface area for the storage of hydrogen and methane for fuel cell-powered vehicles , reports Phys.org .
These gases are attractive clean energy alternatives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ designer materials , a type of a metal-organic framework ( MOF ) , can store significantly more hydrogen and methane than conventional adsorbent materials at much safer pressures and at much lower costs .
“ We ’ ve developed a better onboard storage method for hydrogen and methane gas for next-generation clean energy vehicles , ” said Omar K. Farha , who led the research .
“ To do this , we used chemical principles to design porous materials with precise atomic arrangement , thereby achieving ultrahigh porosity.
” Adsorbents are porous solids @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their surface .
Thanks to its nanoscopic pores , a one-gram sample of the Northwestern material ( with a volume of six M & Ms ) has a surface area that would cover 1.3 football fields .
The new materials also could be a breakthrough for the gas storage industry at large , Farha said , because many industries and applications require the use of compressed gases such as oxygen , hydrogen , methane and others .
Farha is an associate professor of chemistry in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s International Institute for Nanotechnology .
The study , combining experiment and molecular simulation , will be published on April 17 by the journal Science .

Interesting, but as ever, cost and practicality questions have to be considered. Hydrogen has to be produced in an industrial process before it can be stored in large volumes. On the other hand, we’re told fuel cells could operate at ‘much safer pressures’ with this method.
– – –
A research team led by Northwestern University has designed and synthesized new materials with ultrahigh porosity and surface area for the storage of hydrogen and methane for fuel cell-powered vehicles, reports Phys.org.
These gases are attractive clean energy alternatives to carbon dioxide-producing fossil fuels.
The designer materials, a type of a metal-organic framework (MOF), can store significantly more hydrogen and methane than conventional adsorbent materials at much safer pressures and at much lower costs.
“We’ve developed a better onboard storage method for hydrogen and methane gas for next-generation clean energy vehicles,” said Omar K. Farha, who led the research. “To do this, we used chemical principles to design porous materials with precise atomic arrangement, thereby achieving ultrahigh porosity.”
Adsorbents are porous solids which bind liquid or gaseous molecules to their surface. Thanks to its nanoscopic pores, a one-gram sample of the Northwestern material (with a volume of six M&Ms) has a surface area that would cover 1.3 football fields.
The new materials also could be a breakthrough for the gas storage industry at large, Farha said, because many industries and applications require the use of compressed gases such as oxygen, hydrogen, methane and others.
Farha is an associate professor of chemistry in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. He also is a member of Northwestern’s International Institute for Nanotechnology.
The study, combining experiment and molecular simulation, will be published on April 17 by the journal Science.
Continued here.
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April 17, 2020 at 05:30AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Melting Glacier Reveals More Evidence Of Very Warm Medieval Warm Period

Melting glacial ice high in the Norwegian mountains has revealed the full extent of the Lendbreen mountain pass , an important trade route from the Roman era until the late Middle Ages .
A team of researchers from the Innlandet County Council and NTNU University Museum in Norway and the University of Cambridge in the U.K. has found a large quantity of Viking-era artifacts in a long-lost mountain pass in Southern Norway .
In their paper published in the journal Antiquity , the group describes the location of the pass , explains why it is suddenly revealing artifacts , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The pass was found back in 2011 on Lomseggen Ridge near a receding patch at Lendbreen glacier .
Prior research suggested the reason the artifacts were emerging was because the glacier has been shrinking due to global warming .
The team canvased the area over the years 2011 to 2015 .
The search resulted in the discovery of a host of artifacts , 60 of which have been dated to between the years 300 AD to 1000 .
Analysis of the artifacts suggested there were two kinds of travelers through the pass—locals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ locals used the pass to travel between summer and winter homes .
Some of the artifacts also suggested that the pass was used mostly during the times when it was covered with snow—the very rocky terrain would have made walking or riding horses difficult .
Snow would have smoothed the trail , making traversal less difficult .
The researchers found items such as tunics and mittens , along with horse fittings such as shoes and bits .
They also found remnants of sleds , and in one case , the remains of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thus far , no human remains have been found in the area and such findings appear unlikely due to the short distance of the pass—it is just 700 meters long .
The researchers also found multiple cairns along the pass—rocks piled in such a way as to provide a guidepost , helping travelers navigate the easiest path through .
They even found a small shelter , likely for travelers who found themselves in the midst of a sudden snowstorm .
The post Melting Glacier Reveals More Evidence Of Very Warm Medieval Warm Period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forum ( GWPF ) .

Melting glacial ice high in the Norwegian mountains has revealed the full extent of the Lendbreen mountain pass, an important trade route from the Roman era until the late Middle Ages.
Archaeologists made a systematic survey along the edge of the melting ice in the area of the mountain pass at Lendbreen, Norway. JOHAN WILDHAGEN, PALOOKAVILLE
A team of researchers from the Innlandet County Council and NTNU University Museum in Norway and the University of Cambridge in the U.K. has found a large quantity of Viking-era artifacts in a long-lost mountain pass in Southern Norway. In their paper published in the journal Antiquity, the group describes the location of the pass, explains why it is suddenly revealing artifacts, and outlines what has been found thus far.
The pass was found back in 2011 on Lomseggen Ridge near a receding patch at Lendbreen glacier. Prior research suggested the reason the artifacts were emerging was because the glacier has been shrinking due to global warming. The team canvased the area over the years 2011 to 2015.
The search resulted in the discovery of a host of artifacts, 60 of which have been dated to between the years 300 AD to 1000. Analysis of the artifacts suggested there were two kinds of travelers through the pass—locals and long-distance trekkers. The researchers suggest locals used the pass to travel between summer and winter homes. Some of the artifacts also suggested that the pass was used mostly during the times when it was covered with snow—the very rocky terrain would have made walking or riding horses difficult. Snow would have smoothed the trail, making traversal less difficult.
The researchers found items such as tunics and mittens, along with horse fittings such as shoes and bits. They also found remnants of sleds, and in one case, the remains of a dog with a collar and leash. Thus far, no human remains have been found in the area and such findings appear unlikely due to the short distance of the pass—it is just 700 meters long.
The researchers also found multiple cairns along the pass—rocks piled in such a way as to provide a guidepost, helping travelers navigate the easiest path through. They even found a small shelter, likely for travelers who found themselves in the midst of a sudden snowstorm.
see also BBC News: Alpine melt reveals ancient life
The Susten pass, as it might have appeared in Roman times, around 2000 years ago. The Stei glacier has retreated to the level of the Tierberg hut (2795 m), the tree level lies clearly higher. Picture: from “Die Alpen“ / Atelier Thomas Richner based on a draft from Christoph Schlüchter. large
The post Melting Glacier Reveals More Evidence Of Very Warm Medieval Warm Period appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 17, 2020 at 04:15AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Kepler-1649c: Earth-Size, Habitable Zone Planet Hides in Plain Sight

A team of transatlantic scientists , using reanalyzed data from NASA ’ s Kepler space telescope , has discovered an @ @ @ @ @ star ’ s habitable zone , the area around a star where a rocky planet @ @ @ @ @ Scientists discovered this planet , called Kepler-1649c , when looking through old observations from Kepler @ @ @ @ @ in 2018 .
While previous searches with a computer algorithm misidentified it , researchers reviewing @ @ @ @ @ look at the signature and recognized it as a planet .
Out of all the @ @ @ @ @ this distant world – located 300 light-years from Earth – is most similar to Earth @ @ @ @ @ .
This artist ’ s illustration shows what Kepler-1649c could look like from its surface @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Reddit Ask Me Anything on Friday , April 17 , from 2:00 to @ @ @ @ @ participate , go to : https : //www.reddit.com/r/space/

From NASA
April 16, 2020
A team of transatlantic scientists, using reanalyzed data from NASA’s Kepler space telescope, has discovered an Earth-size exoplanet orbiting in its star’s habitable zone, the area around a star where a rocky planet could support liquid water.
Scientists discovered this planet, called Kepler-1649c, when looking through old observations from Kepler, which the agency retired in 2018. While previous searches with a computer algorithm misidentified it, researchers reviewing Kepler data took a second look at the signature and recognized it as a planet. Out of all the exoplanets found by Kepler, this distant world – located 300 light-years from Earth – is most similar to Earth in size and estimated temperature.
This artist’s illustration shows what Kepler-1649c could look like from its surface.
Learn more at NASA’s Reddit Ask Me Anything on Friday, April 17, from 2:00 to 3:30 p.m. EDT. To participate, go to: https://www.reddit.com/r/space/
Image Credit: NASA/Ames Research Center/Daniel Rutter Last Updated: April 16, 2020 Editor: Yvette Smith


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Renewable Energy Rip-off: Wind & Solar Consistently Fail to Deliver the Goods

Adding wind and solar capacity is a bit like pushing on string ; the outcome never matches the effort applied @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s true to say that there has been a massive expansion in wind @ @ @ @ @ However , as Rafe Champion points out below , there ’ s a yawning gulf @ @ @ @ @ [ … ]

Adding wind and solar capacity is a bit like pushing on string; the outcome never matches the effort applied. Across the globe, it’s true to say that there has been a massive expansion in wind and solar power capacity. However, as Rafe Champion points out below, there’s a yawning gulf between the notional capacity of […]
Read more
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April 17, 2020 at 12:40AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Very Large Telescope sees star dance around supermassive black hole, proves Einstein right

Observations made with ESO ’ s Very Large Telescope ( VLT ) have revealed for the first time that a star orbiting the supermassive black hole at the centre of the Milky Way moves just as predicted by Einstein ’ s theory of general relativity .
Its orbit is shaped like a rosette and not like an ellipse as predicted by Newton ’ s theory of gravity .
This effect , known as Schwarzschild precession , had never before been measured for a star around a supermassive black hole .
This artist ’ s impression illustrates the precession of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect exaggerated for easier visualisation .
Credit : ESO/L .
Calçada Observations made with ESO ’ s Very Large Telescope ( VLT ) have revealed for the first time that a star orbiting the supermassive black hole at the centre of the Milky Way moves just as predicted by Einstein ’ s general theory of relativity .
Its orbit is shaped like a rosette and not like an ellipse as predicted by Newton ’ s theory of gravity .
This long-sought-after result was made possible by increasingly precise measurements over nearly 30 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mysteries of the behemoth lurking at the heart of our galaxy .
“ Einstein ’ s General Relativity predicts that bound orbits of one object around another are not closed , as in Newtonian Gravity , but precess forwards in the plane of motion .
This famous effect—first seen in the orbit of the planet Mercury around the Sun—was the first evidence in favour of General Relativity .
One hundred years later we have now detected the same effect in the motion of a star orbiting the compact radio source Sagittarius A* @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This observational breakthrough strengthens the evidence that Sagittarius A* must be a supermassive black hole of 4 million times the mass of the Sun , ” says Reinhard Genzel , Director at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics ( MPE ) in Garching , Germany and the architect of the 30-year-long programme that led to this result .
Located 26 000 light-years from the Sun , Sagittarius A* and the dense cluster of stars around it provide a unique laboratory for testing physics in an otherwise unexplored and extreme regime of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S2 , sweeps in towards the supermassive black hole to a closest distance less than 20 billion kilometres ( one hundred and twenty times the distance between the Sun and Earth ) , making it one of the closest stars ever found in orbit around the massive giant .
At its closest approach to the black hole , S2 is hurtling through space at almost three percent of the speed of light , completing an orbit once every 16 years .
“ After following the star in its orbit for over two and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ robustly detect S2 ’ s Schwarzschild precession in its path around Sagittarius A* , ” says Stefan Gillessen of the MPE , who led the analysis of the measurements published today in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics .
Most stars and planets have a non-circular orbit and therefore move closer to and further away from the object they are rotating around .
S2 ’ s orbit precesses , meaning that the location of its closest point to the supermassive black hole changes with each turn , such that the next orbit is rotated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creating a rosette shape .
General Relativity provides a precise prediction of how much its orbit changes and the latest measurements from this research exactly match the theory .
This effect , known as Schwarzschild precession , had never before been measured for a star around a supermassive black hole .
The study with ESO ’ s VLT also helps scientists learn more about the vicinity of the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy .
“ Because the S2 measurements follow General Relativity so well , we can set stringent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as distributed dark matter or possible smaller black holes , is present around Sagittarius A* .
This is of great interest for understanding the formation and evolution of supermassive black holes , ” say Guy Perrin and Karine Perraut , the French lead scientists of the project .
This result is the culmination of 27 years of observations of the S2 star using , for the best part of this time , a fleet of instruments at ESO ’ s VLT , located in the Atacama Desert in Chile .
The number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s position and velocity attests to the thoroughness and accuracy of the new research : the team made over 330 measurements in total , using the GRAVITY , SINFONI and NACO instruments .
Because S2 takes years to orbit the supermassive black hole , it was crucial to follow the star for close to three decades , to unravel the intricacies of its orbital movement .

From phys.org
by ESO
Observations made with ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) have revealed for the first time that a star orbiting the supermassive black hole at the centre of the Milky Way moves just as predicted by Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Its orbit is shaped like a rosette and not like an ellipse as predicted by Newton’s theory of gravity. This effect, known as Schwarzschild precession, had never before been measured for a star around a supermassive black hole. This artist’s impression illustrates the precession of the star’s orbit, with the effect exaggerated for easier visualisation. Credit: ESO/L. Calçada
Observations made with ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) have revealed for the first time that a star orbiting the supermassive black hole at the centre of the Milky Way moves just as predicted by Einstein’s general theory of relativity. Its orbit is shaped like a rosette and not like an ellipse as predicted by Newton’s theory of gravity. This long-sought-after result was made possible by increasingly precise measurements over nearly 30 years, which have enabled scientists to unlock the mysteries of the behemoth lurking at the heart of our galaxy.
“Einstein’s General Relativity predicts that bound orbits of one object around another are not closed, as in Newtonian Gravity, but precess forwards in the plane of motion. This famous effect—first seen in the orbit of the planet Mercury around the Sun—was the first evidence in favour of General Relativity. One hundred years later we have now detected the same effect in the motion of a star orbiting the compact radio source Sagittarius A* at the centre of the Milky Way. This observational breakthrough strengthens the evidence that Sagittarius A* must be a supermassive black hole of 4 million times the mass of the Sun,” says Reinhard Genzel, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics (MPE) in Garching, Germany and the architect of the 30-year-long programme that led to this result.
Located 26 000 light-years from the Sun, Sagittarius A* and the dense cluster of stars around it provide a unique laboratory for testing physics in an otherwise unexplored and extreme regime of gravity. One of these stars, S2, sweeps in towards the supermassive black hole to a closest distance less than 20 billion kilometres (one hundred and twenty times the distance between the Sun and Earth), making it one of the closest stars ever found in orbit around the massive giant. At its closest approach to the black hole, S2 is hurtling through space at almost three percent of the speed of light, completing an orbit once every 16 years. “After following the star in its orbit for over two and a half decades, our exquisite measurements robustly detect S2’s Schwarzschild precession in its path around Sagittarius A*,” says Stefan Gillessen of the MPE, who led the analysis of the measurements published today in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.
Most stars and planets have a non-circular orbit and therefore move closer to and further away from the object they are rotating around. S2’s orbit precesses, meaning that the location of its closest point to the supermassive black hole changes with each turn, such that the next orbit is rotated with regard to the previous one, creating a rosette shape. General Relativity provides a precise prediction of how much its orbit changes and the latest measurements from this research exactly match the theory. This effect, known as Schwarzschild precession, had never before been measured for a star around a supermassive black hole.
The study with ESO’s VLT also helps scientists learn more about the vicinity of the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy. “Because the S2 measurements follow General Relativity so well, we can set stringent limits on how much invisible material, such as distributed dark matter or possible smaller black holes, is present around Sagittarius A*. This is of great interest for understanding the formation and evolution of supermassive black holes,” say Guy Perrin and Karine Perraut, the French lead scientists of the project.
This result is the culmination of 27 years of observations of the S2 star using, for the best part of this time, a fleet of instruments at ESO’s VLT, located in the Atacama Desert in Chile. The number of data points marking the star’s position and velocity attests to the thoroughness and accuracy of the new research: the team made over 330 measurements in total, using the GRAVITY, SINFONI and NACO instruments. Because S2 takes years to orbit the supermassive black hole, it was crucial to follow the star for close to three decades, to unravel the intricacies of its orbital movement.
Full article here


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--On April 15 heavy snowfall blanketed Northern Greece

Parts of northern Greece woke up under a blanket of snow ( some called it a blizzard ) on Holy @ @ @ @ @ front descended upon the country from the north .
Social media users posted videos and @ @ @ @ @ in towns and villages in the Florina and Kastoria regions .
Temperatures in most parts @ @ @ @ @ as much as eight degrees Celsius in some areas on Wednesday and winds became stronger @ @ @ @ @ the Athens National Observatory ’ s meteo service .
Thanks to tomOmason and Argiris Diamantis @ @ @ @ @ On April 15 heavy snowfall blanketed Northern Greece appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Parts of northern Greece woke up under a blanket of snow (some called it a blizzard) on Holy Wednesday as a mid-Spring cold front descended upon the country from the north.
Social media users posted videos and photos of the heavy snowfall in towns and villages in the Florina and Kastoria regions.
Temperatures in most parts of the country dropped by as much as eight degrees Celsius in some areas on Wednesday and winds became stronger as well, according to the Athens National Observatory’s meteo service.
https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/04/15/northern-greece-covered-by-blanket-of-snow-on-holy-wednesday/
https://greece.greekreporter.com/files/snow-3.jpg
Florina Nymphaeum today. Great Wednesday with a blizzard!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1250311397428232192
https://www.sott.net/article/432589-Northern-Greece-covered-by-blanket-of-snow-in-spring
Thanks to tomOmason and Argiris Diamantis for these links
The post On April 15 heavy snowfall blanketed Northern Greece appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 16, 2020 at 08:48PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-18--Record low temperatures in Colorado damage peach crops

National Weather Service meteorologist Kris Sanders reported a record low 19F ( -7.2C ) Monday in Grand Junction , according @ @ @ @ @ This was a full two degrees below the previous record set in 1933 .
Other @ @ @ @ @ cherries may also have been affected by the freeze .
Grower Bruce Talbott said there @ @ @ @ @ this year to market outside of local consumers .
Thanks to Layne for this link @ @ @ @ @ in Colorado damage peach crops appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Potentially devastating freeze for Grand Valley orchards breaks record set in 1933.
National Weather Service meteorologist Kris Sanders reported a record low 19F (-7.2C) Monday in Grand Junction, according to The Daily Sentinel. This was a full two degrees below the previous record set in 1933.
Other crops such as pears and cherries may also have been affected by the freeze.
Grower Bruce Talbott said there may not be enough crop this year to market outside of local consumers.
https://www.westernslopenow.com/news/local-news/low-temperatures-in-colorado-cause-damage-to-peach-crops/
Thanks to Layne for this link
The post Record low temperatures in Colorado damage peach crops appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 17, 2020 at 07:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-18--Can religiosity predict cultural climate beliefs?

Probing the relationship between religiosity globally , and cultural beliefs in the narrative of imminent / certain global climate catastrophe : Post 1 of 3 .
The main narrative of catastrophic climate-change culture ( CCCC ) contradicts mainstream ( and skeptical ) science .
Yet widespread lack of belief in / commitment to CCCC across many nations can not stem from rational consideration , because national publics simply aren ’ t climate literate enough for rationality to gain any meaningful grip upon the issue ( plus the narrative itself claims an impeccable science pedigree ) .
It ’ s much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Innate Skepticism ( ISk ) .
As described here , ISk is very different to rational skepticism .
It is an instinctive reaction against invasive alien ( to established local conditions ) culture , or major over-reach by a dominant local culture .
Given that CCCC is a relatively new culture sweeping through societies , it will trigger ISk in many people , who will then resist its narratives of catastrophe and salvation .
Whether or not individuals do get triggered into ISk , depends upon their prior long-established cultural values .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PROPOSAL that globally , ISk is indeed the primary driver of bulk public skepticism about CCCC , via of all things the religiosity of nations .
If so , we can also predict CCCC beliefs using religiosity .
For nations , I plot against religiosity the answers to survey questions which are the most affirmative / supportive / concerned about climate-change issues .
I attempt to cover as many nations as possible , the limitation being a large enough survey of attitudes on climate-change covering plenty , where most of the same nations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available .
Also , nations in various world regions and of different faiths ( Christian , Islamic , Hindu , Buddhist etc . )
are needed for a truly generic picture .
To help attain this width of cover , I build my own very straightforward religiosity scale by combining public surveys on same that probe from different angles ( this increases robustness and minimizes bias effects ) .
There are two main categories of climate survey questions ( as for surveys generally ) .
Questions are either reality-constrained , or unconstrained .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer in the light of other prominent real-world / reality issues , most typically by asking participants to say which X out of Y issues are the most important to them ( e.g .
1 out of 10 , or 4 out of 12 or whatever ) , of which one is a climate-change issue or just ‘ climate-change ’ alone , and the others are completely different ( important ) topics .
The unconstrained questions are open-ended , and don ’ t do this .
When expecting answers that are driven by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give very different results .
This post focuses on the unconstrained side only .
Responses for reality-constrained questions , are dealt with in the next posts .
Regarding the unconstrained climate survey questions , I use a September 2019 YouGov survey ( full pdf ) of attitudes on climate-change issues for 28 countries spread across world regions .
Of these I can match 26 from my religiosity scale , which do indeed cover world regions and faiths .
The above survey features a significant number of questions / options , providing for various @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should not correlate .
Indeed , as this survey isn ’ t designed to probe for cultural alignment to climate catastrophism ( inclusive of hope of salvation ) , while it happens to contain questions that should invoke a very dominant cultural response , there are also many that produce weaker responses .
For the latter , one wouldn ’ t expect to see a simple linear relationship with religiosity ( albeit this doesn ’ t exclude some relationship ) .
So for instance , “ The climate is changing and human activity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ invoke a dominant cultural engagement ( and correlation ) .
Many responders could answer this affirmatively without being emotively committed to climate catastrophism ’ s core tenets ( i.e .
a high certainty of imminent catastrophe yet with the concurrent hope of salvation ) .
The question is effectively a technical one too , which weakens emotive response ( albeit this doesn ’ t mean that rationality would necessarily rule instead ) .
The detailed interaction between CCCC and the mainstream faiths is mixed .
Strong public endorsements are backed by very lack-luster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core narratives , such as occurs for a strong alliance of cultures .
There is alliance , but a weak , surface one .
This should nevertheless be enough to disable ISk about CCCC in religious believers for unconstrained questions ; even approval ‘ by default ’ should be sufficient for this .
So , this means that higher national religiosity should correlate with higher affirmative scores for those climate survey questions which do very dominantly engage belief in CCCC narratives .
The next section assesses the first question that should demonstrate correlation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explained later , the US shouldn ’ t conform to the Section 1 proposal ; I included it nevertheless to confirm this is so , because otherwise there ’ d be something wrong with the theory ] .
“ How much of an impact , if any , do you believe climate change will have on your life ?
” This is a great question for cultural correlation , because narratives of CCCC strongly emphasize impact on everyone , rich or poor , any nation , albeit the poor have less means to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ matches the relative imminence ( in fact ‘ happening now ’ ) also stressed by the narrative .
Only a minority of elderly believers might expect to miss out on personal impacts .
Featuring a personal angle also increases the emotive response .
The total responses for ‘ a great deal ’ charted against religiosity , are below .
The first thing to notice about this graph is the stretched ‘ S ’ shape of religiosity undershoot ( LHS ) / overshoot ( RHS ) from trend , which I return to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the nations which stray the most from correlation ( and from others , i.e .
are opposite to that ‘ S ’ shaped straddle ) are my expected exception of the US , and ( very much ! )
Vietnam .
Elsewise , correlation is good .
[ Chart 2xy in SI datafile ] .
It is hard to over-emphasize just how unusual the US is compared to other nations regarding the social psychology of climate-change .
This is due to cultural belief / opposition on the issue neatly aligning to an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on many other issues ) of political parties , which afaik occurs nowhere else .
As within the US religion itself also has a partisan lean ( both Reps and Dems are majority religious parties , but with significantly more , and more fundamentalist , believers supporting the former ) , the religious and climate-change domains have a more complex entanglement .
The US also appears to have by far the most research into attitudes on climate-change , which unfortunately helps to make this highly unusual scenario ( for nations globally ) look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has far more information on this , including links to prior analysis of the US and ways to perceive how it should sit in these types of graphs .
While communism in Vietnam has moved hugely from its classic position of decades ago , especially regarding economics , the system survives in far more than just spirit and with unbroken threads such as idealism wrt its crucial role in throwing off French and US control / influence , plus single-party political power and propaganda .
Regarding the exercise here , this not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ religiosity ( which is monitored and frowned upon ) , but a strong cultural belief especially in the older population , which isn ’ t religious but secular .
If that secular belief is also aligned to CCCC , or at least doesn ’ t oppose it , the sum of ( actual ) religiosity and secular strong belief , could make Vietnam act like a highly religious country in terms of disabling ISk about CCCC for most of the population – maybe !
The exceptional US and Vietnam are thus removed from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ r=0.92 ) .
[ Their data remains in the SI datafile – use delete / undelete row to see charts with these out or in ] .
The next responses measured are the affirmative ‘ a great deal ’ to the question : “ how much power , if any , do you think each of the following have to combat climate change ?
” Sub-option : “ International bodies ( e.g .
the United Nations ) ” .
This question moves away from core existentiality , yet still invokes some fear and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in respect of attitudes to the only example organization given .
And the UN elite aided by older generation NGOs , have written their org indelibly into the catastrophic climate-change narrative as the orthodox priesthood ( despite more fervent nouveau prophets like XR and Greta ) plus originator of solutions ( via coordination of science / policy and pressuring nations to comply ) .
This measurement also demonstrates a robust correlation , ‘ r ’ =0.89 .
Although more ragged , the ‘ S ’ shaped straddle about trend is also present ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As this question is less personal and emotive than the one producing Chart 1 , a narrower ‘ concern ’ data-range with less signal-to-noise is an expectation , see the Supplementary Information as to why .
Yet this result is nevertheless robust enough to regard as great support for my Section 1 proposal .
[ Chart 4xy in SI datafile ] .
However , an apparently new outlier here is Thailand .
The SI notes a potential reason why Thailand may have a lack of faith in the UN , but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Hence while staying aware , there ’ s no reason to grant Thailand ‘ official ’ exception status – it stays in the plots .
While there ’ s an issue with the question on attitudes to human extinction , I figured this shouldn ’ t matter and responses should also correlate robustly .
The issue is that , much like for religion , the core narrative for climate-change includes a fear of catastrophe and hope of salvation ( via the touted dramatic emissions reduction ) .
For a question probing into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these aspects should really be invoked to capture a central swathe of believers .
However , the relevant question asks only : ‘ How likely do you think it is that climate change will cause the extinction of the human race ?
’ Not mentioning the hope / salvation aspect means picking up mostly the doomsters , the too late already brigades , for strong affirmatives .
Yet while engaging a limited part of the belief spectrum , a sub-flavor as it were , responses for ‘ very likely ’ should still invoke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While I wasn ’ t wrong as such – correlation didn ’ t dissolve ( and there ’ s structure like Chart 1 and 2 ) – it ’ s much weaker .
‘ r ’ is only 0.61 .
I then realized that the very low responses range , as indeed I ought to have expected for a doomster-only core , pushes up the relative effect of measurement error .
Something to be aware of ; my cultural net needs to be kept wide .
Nevertheless , this statistically significant correlation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of meaning .
I guess one can say that even the narrow context of human extinction alone , just about scrapes through the cultural alignment / correlation test .
[ See Chart 3xy in SI datafile ] .
Climate-Change attitudes that shouldn ’ t have a simple relationship / correlation with Religiosity Positive responses to ‘ do you think that you personally could be doing more to tackle climate change ’ , shouldn ’ t particularly correlate with religiosity , because cultural belief in an imminent climate catastrophe won ’ t dominate responses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including guilt invokes the sentiment of ‘ doing more ’ , very many people who think there ’ s a climate issue but aren ’ t ardent cultural believers in catastrophe / salvation , will share such a sentiment .
The Supplementary Information gives further reasons why cultural responses should be weak in this case .
As expected , correlation is lost ( ‘ r ’ = -0.17 ) .
A question in the climate survey asks : ‘ Which countries , if any , do you think have had the most negative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
’ Followed by a list of 25 countries , where up to 5 can be chosen .
This is a weakly CCCC-aligned question , which is to say it does not have a strong existential / emotive / personal engagement ( excepting responses for the participants ’ own nations ) , and is relatively objective in that responses ought to stem from the context of widespread and unconflicted knowledge about the sizes of national populations and economies .
This doesn ’ t mean all answers will be correct , and indeed responses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But responses fingering any particular country whether right or wrong , say India , shouldn ’ t robustly correlate with religiosity .
For the test case I used of India , this indeed proved to be the case .
See Charts F1 , F2 in SI datafile .
Note : as discussed in the third post of this series , there ’ s some revealing non-linear structure in both of the responses measured here .
But an expected lack of strong correlation is all we ’ re currently concerned about .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that can be seen in charts 1 and 2 ( and systemically throughout in fact ) .
In summary , not only is this a feature of the religiosity scale in isolation , it isn ’ t due to the particular set of charted nations , also occurring with a completely different set ( having religiosity cover , but not climate-survey cover ) .
So , given religiosity against a dead-straight-line plots similarly , then whatever causes this shape ( systemic self-assessment error is my main SI candidate ) , the underlying relationship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also linear .
In which case , the ‘ r ’ values as noted above are indeed valid for the charted relationships .
The above means it ’ s reasonable to iron out this bias ( whether indeed it ’ s due to self-assessment error or any other measurement issue ) so we can better see the true relationship between religiosity and CCCC without it .
SI provides detail .
Chart 3 is the resulting picture for Chart 1 redrawn in this manner .
[ See 7xy in SI datafile .
And Chart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 .
Plus footnotes 12,7,7a,7b ] .
Note : Because the ‘ S ’ shape straddled the trend fairly evenly , this exercise has almost no impact on r. In preparation for the next post , I plotted the debiased versions of Charts 1 and 2 together , also reversing the X and Y axes ( an alternate Y axis is used later for further data ) .
It ’ s important to note that survey questions which are less emotive / existential / personal , ( pink ) , i.e .
less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gradient of responses with national religiosity than those for more aligned questions , ( blue ) .
As it ’ s only there to demonstrate this lower gradient , the pink series is muted to reduce clutter ; another series will be loaded on later ( plus note , Hong Kong and Taiwan are dropped as the next series doesn ’ t cover them ) .
For theoretical trends having less and less gradient , a direct linear relationship eventually fades away .
I term the effect causing these trends ‘ Allied Belief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because the surface alliance between CCCC and religion ( more about this in the SI ) , makes religious adherents feel comfortable with climate catastrophe narratives , as long as there are no reality constraints , thereby disabling their Innate Skepticism of CCCC .
Blue does this more strongly than pink .
This doesn ’ t happen for most irreligious people ( more of these in irreligious nations ) .
The robust relationship depicted above doesn ’ t prove that the main cultural mechanism is the disablement of Innate Skepticism to CCCC .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , albeit given the nature of religion they couldn ’ t avoid a cultural dimension .
The SI outlines a ( weak , imo ) candidate , and there may be others .
However , I believe my case is strong , and it gels with further data in the next posts .
Notwithstanding such cautions / exceptions , via a simple relationship : Globally , can Religiosity predict Cultural Climate Beliefs ?
Well Chart 4 could hardly be more supportive of this .
And even the ‘ doomster only ’ response scrapes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rarely intuitive .
So for instance , if one assumes that nations in Chart 4 which have high levels of climate concern ( and religiosity ) , are also those with more climate-change activism , and / or stronger / more emissions reduction policies , this is very wrong !
The Scandinavian nations or the UK , say , at the left-hand side , score very high in both these areas , and Europe generally scores more than the higher religiosity nations on the right-hand side .
So , do climate surveys not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Well , it turns out that the surveys very much reflect reality .
But there ’ s two strong relationships between CCCC and religiosity , which are very divergent and supported by two different types of belief .
Of which this post demonstrates only the first .
To get into the prediction game ( of both beliefs and the behaviors they drive ) we must also characterize the second relationship , which as hinted at the beginning comes from reality-constrained surveys .
From which in turn , the apparent paradox above and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ total cultural effects in play .
So… There are 3 posts in this series , all of which have the same style of Supplementary Information , which consist : 1 ) an expanded post , 2 ) a footnotes file , and 3 ) an Excel datafile .
The text below is a streamlined post version , geared to get the concepts across more readily and uncluttered regarding side-issues , detail on methodology , intricate depth , path my exploration took etc .
For folks who want more , the expanded post is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ footnotes file , also having various external references , relates to the expanded post ( though a couple are pointed at below ) .
Likewise , all the chart IDs within the Excel datafile are numbered for the expanded post .
However , all sources / data for the charts below can easily be found ( I provided SI IDs in the text ) .
The datafile includes various extra charts too .

by Andy West
Probing the relationship between religiosity globally, and cultural beliefs in the narrative of imminent / certain global climate catastrophe: Post 1 of 3.
Introduction
The main narrative of catastrophic climate-change culture (CCCC) contradicts mainstream (and skeptical) science. Yet widespread lack of belief in / commitment to CCCC across many nations cannot stem from rational consideration, because national publics simply aren’t climate literate enough for rationality to gain any meaningful grip upon the issue (plus the narrative itself claims an impeccable science pedigree). It’s much more likely that most disbelief stems from Innate Skepticism (ISk).
As described here, ISk is very different to rational skepticism. It is an instinctive reaction against invasive alien (to established local conditions) culture, or major over-reach by a dominant local culture. Given that CCCC is a relatively new culture sweeping through societies, it will trigger ISk in many people, who will then resist its narratives of catastrophe and salvation. Whether or not individuals do get triggered into ISk, depends upon their prior long-established cultural values. So, this means we can probe THE PROPOSAL that globally, ISk is indeed the primary driver of bulk public skepticism about CCCC, via of all things the religiosity of nations. If so, we can also predict CCCC beliefs using religiosity.
Method
For nations, I plot against religiosity the answers to survey questions which are the most affirmative / supportive / concerned about climate-change issues. I attempt to cover as many nations as possible, the limitation being a large enough survey of attitudes on climate-change covering plenty, where most of the same nations also have a common measure of religiosity available. Also, nations in various world regions and of different faiths (Christian, Islamic, Hindu, Buddhist etc.) are needed for a truly generic picture. To help attain this width of cover, I build my own very straightforward religiosity scale by combining public surveys on same that probe from different angles (this increases robustness and minimizes bias effects).
There are two main categories of climate survey questions (as for surveys generally). Questions are either reality-constrained, or unconstrained. The former forces respondents to consider their answer in the light of other prominent real-world / reality issues, most typically by asking participants to say which X out of Y issues are the most important to them (e.g. 1 out of 10, or 4 out of 12 or whatever), of which one is a climate-change issue or just ‘climate-change’ alone, and the others are completely different (important) topics. The unconstrained questions are open-ended, and don’t do this. When expecting answers that are driven by cultural responses, these two types typically give very different results. This post focuses on the unconstrained side only. Responses for reality-constrained questions, are dealt with in the next posts.
Regarding the unconstrained climate survey questions, I use a September 2019 YouGov survey (full pdf) of attitudes on climate-change issues for 28 countries spread across world regions. Of these I can match 26 from my religiosity scale, which do indeed cover world regions and faiths.
Expectation
The above survey features a significant number of questions / options, providing for various tests against religiosity including the responses that should not correlate. Indeed, as this survey isn’t designed to probe for cultural alignment to climate catastrophism (inclusive of hope of salvation), while it happens to contain questions that should invoke a very dominant cultural response, there are also many that produce weaker responses. For the latter, one wouldn’t expect to see a simple linear relationship with religiosity (albeit this doesn’t exclude some relationship). So for instance, “The climate is changing and human activity is mainly responsible”, will not invoke a dominant cultural engagement (and correlation). Many responders could answer this affirmatively without being emotively committed to climate catastrophism’s core tenets (i.e. a high certainty of imminent catastrophe yet with the concurrent hope of salvation). The question is effectively a technical one too, which weakens emotive response (albeit this doesn’t mean that rationality would necessarily rule instead).
The detailed interaction between CCCC and the mainstream faiths is mixed. Strong public endorsements are backed by very lack-luster action and very little true exchange of core narratives, such as occurs for a strong alliance of cultures. There is alliance, but a weak, surface one. This should nevertheless be enough to disable ISk about CCCC in religious believers for unconstrained questions; even approval ‘by default’ should be sufficient for this. So, this means that higher national religiosity should correlate with higher affirmative scores for those climate survey questions which do very dominantly engage belief in CCCC narratives. The next section assesses the first question that should demonstrate correlation.
[Note: for sound reasons explained later, the US shouldn’t conform to the Section 1 proposal; I included it nevertheless to confirm this is so, because otherwise there’d be something wrong with the theory].
Attitudes on ‘Personal Climate Impact’ versus Religiosity
“How much of an impact, if any, do you believe climate change will have on your life?” This is a great question for cultural correlation, because narratives of CCCC strongly emphasize impact on everyone, rich or poor, any nation, albeit the poor have less means to mitigate impact. Plus ‘your life’ matches the relative imminence (in fact ‘happening now’) also stressed by the narrative. Only a minority of elderly believers might expect to miss out on personal impacts. Featuring a personal angle also increases the emotive response. The total responses for ‘a great deal’ charted against religiosity, are below.
The first thing to notice about this graph is the stretched ‘S’ shape of religiosity undershoot (LHS) / overshoot (RHS) from trend, which I return to later. Then also, that two of the nations which stray the most from correlation (and from others, i.e. are opposite to that ‘S’ shaped straddle) are my expected exception of the US, and (very much!) Vietnam. Elsewise, correlation is good. [Chart 2xy in SI datafile].
It is hard to over-emphasize just how unusual the US is compared to other nations regarding the social psychology of climate-change. This is due to cultural belief / opposition on the issue neatly aligning to an existing very high polarization (i.e. on many other issues) of political parties, which afaik occurs nowhere else. As within the US religion itself also has a partisan lean (both Reps and Dems are majority religious parties, but with significantly more, and more fundamentalist, believers supporting the former), the religious and climate-change domains have a more complex entanglement. The US also appears to have by far the most research into attitudes on climate-change, which unfortunately helps to make this highly unusual scenario (for nations globally) look like a norm. The Supplementary Information has far more information on this, including links to prior analysis of the US and ways to perceive how it should sit in these types of graphs.
While communism in Vietnam has moved hugely from its classic position of decades ago, especially regarding economics, the system survives in far more than just spirit and with unbroken threads such as idealism wrt its crucial role in throwing off French and US control / influence, plus single-party political power and propaganda. Regarding the exercise here, this not only means a very likely biased-low measure of religiosity (which is monitored and frowned upon), but a strong cultural belief especially in the older population, which isn’t religious but secular. If that secular belief is also aligned to CCCC, or at least doesn’t oppose it, the sum of (actual) religiosity and secular strong belief, could make Vietnam act like a highly religious country in terms of disabling ISk about CCCC for most of the population – maybe!
The exceptional US and Vietnam are thus removed from further analysis, leaving 24 nations (r=0.92). [Their data remains in the SI datafile – use delete / undelete row to see charts with these out or in].
Attitudes on ‘UN Power to Combat CC’ versus Religiosity
The next responses measured are the affirmative ‘a great deal’ to the question: “how much power, if any, do you think each of the following have to combat climate change?” Sub-option: “International bodies (e.g. the United Nations)”. This question moves away from core existentiality, yet still invokes some fear and hope. Likely, participants will respond in respect of attitudes to the only example organization given. And the UN elite aided by older generation NGOs, have written their org indelibly into the catastrophic climate-change narrative as the orthodox priesthood (despite more fervent nouveau prophets like XR and Greta) plus originator of solutions (via coordination of science / policy and pressuring nations to comply).
This measurement also demonstrates a robust correlation, ‘r’=0.89. Although more ragged, the ‘S’ shaped straddle about trend is also present; clearly, this is a common feature. As this question is less personal and emotive than the one producing Chart 1, a narrower ‘concern’ data-range with less signal-to-noise is an expectation, see the Supplementary Information as to why. Yet this result is nevertheless robust enough to regard as great support for my Section 1 proposal. [Chart 4xy in SI datafile].
However, an apparently new outlier here is Thailand. The SI notes a potential reason why Thailand may have a lack of faith in the UN, but it’s not a strong case IMO. Hence while staying aware, there’s no reason to grant Thailand ‘official’ exception status – it stays in the plots.
Attitudes on ‘Human Extinction’ versus Religiosity
While there’s an issue with the question on attitudes to human extinction, I figured this shouldn’t matter and responses should also correlate robustly. The issue is that, much like for religion, the core narrative for climate-change includes a fear of catastrophe and hope of salvation (via the touted dramatic emissions reduction). For a question probing into the more deeply existential, both of these aspects should really be invoked to capture a central swathe of believers. However, the relevant question asks only: ‘How likely do you think it is that climate change will cause the extinction of the human race?’ Not mentioning the hope / salvation aspect means picking up mostly the doomsters, the too late already brigades, for strong affirmatives. Yet while engaging a limited part of the belief spectrum, a sub-flavor as it were, responses for ‘very likely’ should still invoke strong cultural response, should still correlate.
While I wasn’t wrong as such – correlation didn’t dissolve (and there’s structure like Chart 1 and 2) – it’s much weaker. ‘r’ is only 0.61. I then realized that the very low responses range, as indeed I ought to have expected for a doomster-only core, pushes up the relative effect of measurement error. Something to be aware of; my cultural net needs to be kept wide. Nevertheless, this statistically significant correlation (p=0.0016) isn’t devoid of meaning. I guess one can say that even the narrow context of human extinction alone, just about scrapes through the cultural alignment / correlation test. [See Chart 3xy in SI datafile].
Climate-Change attitudes that shouldn’t have a simple relationship / correlation with Religiosity
Positive responses to ‘do you think that you personally could be doing more to tackle climate change’, shouldn’t particularly correlate with religiosity, because cultural belief in an imminent climate catastrophe won’t dominate responses. While the culture via various means including guilt invokes the sentiment of ‘doing more’, very many people who think there’s a climate issue but aren’t ardent cultural believers in catastrophe / salvation, will share such a sentiment. The Supplementary Information gives further reasons why cultural responses should be weak in this case. As expected, correlation is lost (‘r’= -0.17).
A question in the climate survey asks: ‘Which countries, if any, do you think have had the most negative impact on global warming and climate change?’ Followed by a list of 25 countries, where up to 5 can be chosen. This is a weakly CCCC-aligned question, which is to say it does not have a strong existential / emotive / personal engagement (excepting responses for the participants’ own nations), and is relatively objective in that responses ought to stem from the context of widespread and unconflicted knowledge about the sizes of national populations and economies. This doesn’t mean all answers will be correct, and indeed responses are scattered across all the 25 countries. But responses fingering any particular country whether right or wrong, say India, shouldn’t robustly correlate with religiosity. For the test case I used of India, this indeed proved to be the case.
See Charts F1, F2 in SI datafile. Note: as discussed in the third post of this series, there’s some revealing non-linear structure in both of the responses measured here. But an expected lack of strong correlation is all we’re currently concerned about.
Sharpening the picture
I investigated the ‘S’ shaped straddle that can be seen in charts 1 and 2 (and systemically throughout in fact). In summary, not only is this a feature of the religiosity scale in isolation, it isn’t due to the particular set of charted nations, also occurring with a completely different set (having religiosity cover, but not climate-survey cover). So, given religiosity against a dead-straight-line plots similarly, then whatever causes this shape (systemic self-assessment error is my main SI candidate), the underlying relationship of religiosity with CCCC is highly likely also linear. In which case, the ‘r’ values as noted above are indeed valid for the charted relationships.
The above means it’s reasonable to iron out this bias (whether indeed it’s due to self-assessment error or any other measurement issue) so we can better see the true relationship between religiosity and CCCC without it. SI provides detail. Chart 3 is the resulting picture for Chart 1 redrawn in this manner. [See 7xy in SI datafile. And Chart F7xy for the equivalent redraw of Chart 2. Plus footnotes 12,7,7a,7b].
Note: Because the ‘S’ shape straddled the trend fairly evenly, this exercise has almost no impact on r.
In preparation for the next post, I plotted the debiased versions of Charts 1 and 2 together, also reversing the X and Y axes (an alternate Y axis is used later for further data). It’s important to note that survey questions which are less emotive / existential / personal, (pink), i.e. less aligned to CCCC, give a lower gradient of responses with national religiosity than those for more aligned questions, (blue). As it’s only there to demonstrate this lower gradient, the pink series is muted to reduce clutter; another series will be loaded on later (plus note, Hong Kong and Taiwan are dropped as the next series doesn’t cover them). For theoretical trends having less and less gradient, a direct linear relationship eventually fades away.
I term the effect causing these trends ‘Allied Belief’ (ABel). They occur because the surface alliance between CCCC and religion (more about this in the SI), makes religious adherents feel comfortable with climate catastrophe narratives, as long as there are no reality constraints, thereby disabling their Innate Skepticism of CCCC. Blue does this more strongly than pink. This doesn’t happen for most irreligious people (more of these in irreligious nations).
Taking stock
The robust relationship depicted above doesn’t prove that the main cultural mechanism is the disablement of Innate Skepticism to CCCC. Alternate explanations for the correlation are possible, albeit given the nature of religion they couldn’t avoid a cultural dimension. The SI outlines a (weak, imo) candidate, and there may be others. However, I believe my case is strong, and it gels with further data in the next posts.
Notwithstanding such cautions / exceptions, via a simple relationship: Globally, can Religiosity predict Cultural Climate Beliefs? Well Chart 4 could hardly be more supportive of this. And even the ‘doomster only’ response scrapes the test. But… cultural effects are rarely intuitive. So for instance, if one assumes that nations in Chart 4 which have high levels of climate concern (and religiosity), are also those with more climate-change activism, and / or stronger / more emissions reduction policies, this is very wrong! The Scandinavian nations or the UK, say, at the left-hand side, score very high in both these areas, and Europe generally scores more than the higher religiosity nations on the right-hand side. So, do climate surveys not reflect reality? What is going on?
Well, it turns out that the surveys very much reflect reality. But there’s two strong relationships between CCCC and religiosity, which are very divergent and supported by two different types of belief. Of which this post demonstrates only the first. To get into the prediction game (of both beliefs and the behaviors they drive) we must also characterize the second relationship, which as hinted at the beginning comes from reality-constrained surveys. From which in turn, the apparent paradox above and others too, are explainable via the total cultural effects in play. So…
Admin notes
There are 3 posts in this series, all of which have the same style of Supplementary Information, which consist: 1) an expanded post, 2) a footnotes file, and 3) an Excel datafile. The text below is a streamlined post version, geared to get the concepts across more readily and uncluttered regarding side-issues, detail on methodology, intricate depth, path my exploration took etc. For folks who want more, the expanded post is ~4900 words. Be aware that the footnotes file, also having various external references, relates to the expanded post (though a couple are pointed at below). Likewise, all the chart IDs within the Excel datafile are numbered for the expanded post. However, all sources / data for the charts below can easily be found (I provided SI IDs in the text). The datafile includes various extra charts too.
Long version [ONE Extended Post]
Footnotes [ONE Footnotes]
Data file [ ONE Datafile ]
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April 17, 2020 at 06:55PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Back to Normal, Controlling COVID19

Back to Normal, Controlling COVID19

My new article How to re-open the country and control COVID-19 # coronavirus is published by WUWT .
Some of the main points : It is necessary to measure percentage of infected and immune individuals in the population , in all age groups and many locations .
That requires regular random testing , similar to polling or surveys .
Traditional Sentinel Surveillance programs , relying on reporting by physicians , are not applicable to COVID-19 .
( An EU example ) States and counties with small COVID-19 infection level should lift most restrictions on Monday , rather than waiting until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decrease .
In these ares , this number will continue increasing one way or another .
One size doesn ’ t fit all .
COVID-19 is dangerous to older ( 65+ ) and ill people .
They need more protection .
Young ( < 50 ) and healthy crowd is largely safe .
They should not be burdened with restrictions designed for more vulnerable groups and applied to everybody as the lowest common denominator .
Opening schools is a necessary condition for normalization .
I consider that a Go-Stop-Go normalization strategy allow for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normalization , than gradual lifting restrictions .
Go-Stop-Go means lifting a large chunk of restrictions for a pre-defined short period ( 2-5 days ) , restoring the previous regime ( subject to the Constitutional limitations ) for another 5-9 days to evaluate the impact , then lifting them again .
CoV2 , the coronavirus causing COVID-19 , is a novel zoonotic virus .
However mild at this time , it might mutate into a lethal strain .
It has not explored its “ viable mutations space , ” unlike old human coronaviruses .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ lethal outbreaks are paramount .
That requires opening the economics .
Anyway , no government in the US has authority to order mass house arrests or lockdowns .
It might be beneficial for more people to naturally gain immunity to CoV2 .

My new article How to re-open the country and control COVID-19 #coronavirus is published by WUWT. Some of the main points:
It is necessary to measure percentage of infected and immune individuals in the population, in all age groups and many locations. That requires regular random testing, similar to polling or surveys. Traditional Sentinel Surveillance programs, relying on reporting by physicians, are not applicable to COVID-19. (An EU example)
States and counties with small COVID-19 infection level should lift most restrictions on Monday, rather than waiting until the number of new cases begins to decrease. In these ares, this number will continue increasing one way or another.
One size doesn’t fit all. COVID-19 is dangerous to older (65+) and ill people. They need more protection. Young (<50) and healthy crowd is largely safe. They should not be burdened with restrictions designed for more vulnerable groups and applied to everybody as the lowest common denominator. Opening schools is a necessary condition for normalization.
I consider that a Go-Stop-Go normalization strategy allow for better control of the disease and faster normalization, than gradual lifting restrictions. Go-Stop-Go means lifting a large chunk of restrictions for a pre-defined short period (2-5 days), restoring the previous regime (subject to the Constitutional limitations) for another 5-9 days to evaluate the impact, then lifting them again.
CoV2, the coronavirus causing COVID-19, is a novel zoonotic virus. However mild at this time, it might mutate into a lethal strain. It has not explored its “viable mutations space,” unlike old human coronaviruses. Thus, monitoring and preparedness to highly lethal outbreaks are paramount. That requires opening the economics.
Anyway, no government in the US has authority to order mass house arrests or lockdowns.
It might be beneficial for more people to naturally gain immunity to CoV2.
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April 17, 2020 at 06:04PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--COVID-19 is a harsh teacher. Let’s learn from it.

Summary : COVID-19 teaches us about the propaganda and arrogance that hobble us .
The cost in lives and money might be worthwhile if we learn from it and make a better America .
This “ it ’ s China ’ s fault ” campaign ( details here and here ) is eerily similar to the hysteria whipped up – manufactured – by the US government against Iraq before the 2003 invasion .
The press were uncritical cheerleaders .
Much of the US public became a mob ( or more accurately , a flock ) .
Calmer voices pointed out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we were being manipulated .
Manipulated again , as we were with the Tonkin Gulf incident and the invasion of Afghanistan ( 9/11 was plotted in Germany , with training in Florida ) .
The same tactics are being used against us again .
Again with equally obvious motives – to arouse people against a new Cold War foe ( to justify our massive military spending ) and distract people ’ s attention from the massive failures of the Trump administration during the COVID-19 epidemic .
The saddest aspect of these campaigns is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Can a people so easily manipulated and so unwilling to learn from experience govern themselves ?
Many climate scientists have been vocal during the pandemic , with unsolicited offers of their expertise .
For instance , in this article by James Annan ( h/t to Climate Etc ) .
Here is the money paragraph .
“ We have been doing a very straightforward MCMC calibration of a simple SEIR model ( equivalent of energy balance box model in climate science , pretty much ) .
The basic concept is to use the model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths back through the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R. It ’ s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts ( in the UK at least ) are doing this .
I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for , if not this sort of thing ?
They should have been all over this like a rash.
” Well , something here is like a “ rash.
” When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experts are not doing what seems obvious to him , it probably means that he should ask an expert and dial down the self-confidence .
In the climate wars , such statements often precede “ analysis ” showing that there is no greenhouse effect or that the world is totally doomed really soon .
The staff at CDC and WHO frequently discussed this issue that bemused Annan , explaining that R0 is of little use for laypeople .
It is a variable , not a model parameter in the sense Annan appears to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to calculate , R0 is complex .
It varies by circumstances and can change over time .
The CDC often cites a paper saying that it is “ easily misrepresented , misinterpreted , and misapplied.
” More broadly , there are many fields using quantitative models ( e.g.
, macroeconomics ) .
Personally , climate scientists are among the last I would consult .
The most obvious similarity of climate models to epidemiological models of COVID-19 is the Imperial College model made famous by Prof. Neil Ferguson .
Created 13 years ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( per Ferguson ) – but it made headlines and had a massive influence on UK public policy .
Although it now appears grossly flawed ( as seen in the “ actual results don ’ t matter ” justifications ) , it made him famous and resulted in a shower of grant money .
More broadly , the COVID-19 crisis has followed the same pattern as the public climate wars .
Experts are center stage .
Then they are displaced by a wider pool of authorities .
Then wild claims by laypeople dominate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those at the IPCC and WHO ) .
The climate wars reached that point after 3 decades .
COVID-19 reached that stage in only 14 weeks , as claims that “ It Is China ’ s Fault ” increasingly dominate the news .
This suggests that our dysfunctional response to major crises results from deeper problems in our society .
If not fixed , we might have difficulty coping with more serious threats than COVID-19 .
Ideas !
For some holiday shopping ideas , see my recommended books and films at Amazon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ story about “ Birth of a Man of Steel …for the Soviet Union.
” If you liked this post , like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter .
See all posts about Reforming America : steps to a new politics , about the importance of clear vision , and especially these… • Important advice : Learning skepticism , an essential skill for citizenship in 21st century America .
About “ extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof ” .
• Important : Our leaders so often lie , but we still believe them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a step to reforming America .
• We live in an age of ignorance , but can decide to fix this – today .
• Ways to deal with those guilty of causing the fake news epidemic .
• The secret source of fake news .
Its discovery will change America .
• We have been blind , but can learn to see .
• A new phase of the epidemic begins with propaganda .
Propaganda rules America !
Read all about it !
Propaganda by Edward Bernays ( 1936 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society .
Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.
” Media Control : The Spectacular Achievements of Propaganda by Noam Chomsky ( 2002 ) .
“ Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state .
”

Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Blog
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 16 April 2020
Summary: COVID-19 teaches us about the propaganda and arrogance that hobble us. The cost in lives and money might be worthwhile if we learn from it and make a better America.
By GoodIdeas. AdobeStock-320705180.
A nation lit only by propaganda
This “it’s China’s fault” campaign (details here and here) is eerily similar to the hysteria whipped up – manufactured – by the US government against Iraq before the 2003 invasion. The press were uncritical cheerleaders. Much of the US public became a mob (or more accurately, a flock). Calmer voices pointed out that the evidence was weak and that we were being manipulated. Manipulated again, as we were with the Tonkin Gulf incident and the invasion of Afghanistan (9/11 was plotted in Germany, with training in Florida).
The same tactics are being used against us again. Again with equally obvious motives – to arouse people against a new Cold War foe (to justify our massive military spending) and distract people’s attention from the massive failures of the Trump administration during the COVID-19 epidemic.
The saddest aspect of these campaigns is how easily our elites stage them. Can a people so easily manipulated and so unwilling to learn from experience govern themselves?
By GoodIdeas. AdobeStock_320708771.
Climate Science to the rescue
Many climate scientists have been vocal during the pandemic, with unsolicited offers of their expertise. For instance, in this article by James Annan (h/t to Climate Etc). Here is the money paragraph.
“We have been doing a very straightforward MCMC calibration of a simple SEIR model (equivalent of energy balance box model in climate science, pretty much). The basic concept is to use the model to invert the time series of reported deaths back through the time series of underlying infections in order to discover the model parameters such as the famous reproductive rate R. It’s actually rather simple and I am still bemused by the fact that none of the experts (in the UK at least) are doing this. I mean what on earth are mathematical epidemiologists actually for, if not this sort of thing? They should have been all over this like a rash.”
Well, something here is like a “rash.” When a layperson is “bemused” that experts are not doing what seems obvious to him, it probably means that he should ask an expert and dial down the self-confidence. In the climate wars, such statements often precede “analysis” showing that there is no greenhouse effect or that the world is totally doomed really soon.
The staff at CDC and WHO frequently discussed this issue that bemused Annan, explaining that R0 is of little use for laypeople. It is a variable, not a model parameter in the sense Annan appears to use it. Rather than being simple to calculate, R0 is complex. It varies by circumstances and can change over time. The CDC often cites a paper saying that it is “easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied.”
More broadly, there are many fields using quantitative models (e.g., macroeconomics). Personally, climate scientists are among the last I would consult. The most obvious similarity of climate models to epidemiological models of COVID-19 is the Imperial College model made famous by Prof. Neil Ferguson. Created 13 years ago, undocumented code, unvalidated, lacking peer-review (per Ferguson) – but it made headlines and had a massive influence on UK public policy. Although it now appears grossly flawed (as seen in the “actual results don’t matter” justifications), it made him famous and resulted in a shower of grant money.
More broadly, the COVID-19 crisis has followed the same pattern as the public climate wars. Experts are center stage. Then they are displaced by a wider pool of authorities. Then wild claims by laypeople dominate, displacing actual experts (such as those at the IPCC and WHO). The climate wars reached that point after 3 decades. COVID-19 reached that stage in only 14 weeks, as claims that “It Is China’s Fault” increasingly dominate the news. This suggests that our dysfunctional response to major crises results from deeper problems in our society. If not fixed, we might have difficulty coping with more serious threats than COVID-19.
For More Information
Ideas! For some holiday shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a powerful and disturbing story about “Birth of a Man of Steel …for the Soviet Union.”
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about Reforming America: steps to a new politics, about the importance of clear vision, and especially these…
Propaganda rules America! Read all about it!
Propaganda by Edward Bernays (1936). “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.”
Media Control: The Spectacular Achievements of Propaganda by Noam Chomsky (2002). “Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.”


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--The first Synthetic Pandemic? Man who discovered HIV says Coronavirus is man made. CCP destroyed the

The first Synthetic Pandemic? Man who discovered HIV says Coronavirus is man made. CCP destroyed the evidence.

For months there have been rumors that Coronavirus leaked from a Chinese lab virus .
The only P4 ( high security lab ) in China happens to be in Wuhan , near the fish markets and people there happen to be working on synthetic coronaviruses with S proteins that happen to infect ACE2 receptors in humans .
But if Mother Nature wanted to generate her own viruses , it ’ s hard to beat wet markets in high density Chinese hubs .
And there were papers too saying the gene analysis , etc , fitted 96 % with the bat-pangolin-human @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long before the CCP was asking for sympathy , authorities were asking the staff to destroy all those lab viruses : “ Existing virus samples must be destroyed .
Information about the samples , related papers and related data are all prohibited from release .
“ – Hubei Health committee on Jan 1st .
( See the Epoch Times Documentary below ) .
And told the staff to say nothing to anyone , anywhere , anytime , ever : “ Notice regarding the strict prohibition of disclosure of any information related to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clearly mandates that all detection , empirical data , results and conclusions related to this [ … ]

For months there have been rumors that Coronavirus leaked from a Chinese lab virus. The only P4 (high security lab) in China happens to be in Wuhan, near the fish markets and people there happen to be working on synthetic coronaviruses with S proteins that happen to infect ACE2 receptors in humans. But if Mother Nature wanted to generate her own viruses, it’s hard to beat wet markets in high density Chinese hubs. And there were papers too saying the gene analysis, etc, fitted 96% with the bat-pangolin-human story.
But now we find, long before the CCP was asking for sympathy, authorities were asking the staff to destroy all those lab viruses:
“Existing virus samples must be destroyed. Information about the samples, related papers and related data are all prohibited from release. “
– Hubei Health committee on Jan 1st. (See the Epoch Times Documentary below).
And told the staff to say nothing to anyone, anywhere, anytime, ever:
“Notice regarding the strict prohibition of disclosure of any information related to the Wuhan unknown pneumonia.
National Health Commission clearly mandates that all detection, empirical data, results and conclusions related to this […]
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April 17, 2020 at 02:30PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--Eco-Reality Strikes Back: Earth Day at 50

As climate bedwetters hyperventilate about the state of the environment for the 50th anniversary of Earth Day , reality strikes back .
Here is my summary of the state of our environment .
[ Note : Image clipped from the cover/title of Iain Murray ’ s 2008 book ] Good News Drowned Out by Apocalyptic and Agenda-Driven Hysteria : “ You didn ’ t clean that up.
” Summary : Americans began cleaning up their industrialized environment in the late 1940s  well before the first Earth Day in 1970 .
Since then , many decades of efforts have produced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as any industrialized society in the world , especially considering a population of 330 million with a historically unparalleled high standard of living .
In fact , this high standard of living is what made environmental clean-up desirable and possible .
Air quality .
U.S. air is as clean as it has ever been .
From 1980 to 2018 , except where noted [ Source : U.S. EPA ] : Drinking Water .
“ Generally , water systems in the United States provide reliable and high-quality drinking water .
Violations tend to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S. surface waters are as clean as any in the world and progress continues to be made .
Since 2005 , 832 bodies of water have been restored from run-off/non-point-source pollution .
Under President Trump ’ s leadership , this includes 131 bodies of water .
[ Source : EPA ] Waste sites .
Superfund waste site clean ups have accelerated under the Trump administration [ Source : EPA ] : Also , there is no evidence that any emissions or releases from any toxic waste site has caused any harm to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , S. Science-Based Risk Assessment : A Piece of the Superfund Puzzle ( National Environmental Policy Institute , 1995 ) Greenest Earth .
The Earth is greener than ever before , according to NASA [ Source : https : //ift.tt/2eaNs6I % 5D .
Climate .
Since the pre-industrial age , there has been approximately 1.1°C of warming and almost 50 % more CO2 in the atmosphere .
Since that time , more people are living longer lives at a higher standard of living [ Source : OurWorldInData.org ] The wealthiest nations are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we clean our environment ?
Environmental progress is due to : What does the future hold ?
Our environment is clean and safe .
We will be able to maintain this status with : Verdict on environmental activism & Earth Day .
While green groups and Earth Day organizers will grasp for all environmental improvement and protection credit since 1970 , the actual story is far more complex .

As climate bedwetters hyperventilate about the state of the environment for the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, reality strikes back. Here is my summary of the state of our environment.
[Note: Image clipped from the cover/title of Iain Murray’s 2008 book]
Eco-Reality Strikes Back:
Earth Day At 50
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com
Good News Drowned Out by Apocalyptic and Agenda-Driven Hysteria:
“You didn’t clean that up.”
Summary: Americans began cleaning up their industrialized environment in the late 1940s  well before the first Earth Day in 1970. Since then, many decades of efforts have produced a U.S. environment that is as clean as any industrialized society in the world, especially considering a population of 330 million with a historically unparalleled high standard of living. In fact, this high standard of living is what made environmental clean-up desirable and possible.
Air quality. U.S. air is as clean as it has ever been. From 1980 to 2018, except where noted [Source: U.S. EPA]:
Carbon monoxide, down 83%
Lead, down 99%
Nitrous oxides, down 61%
Ozone, down 31%
Particulate matter (10 micrograms & below), down 26%
Particulate matter (2.5 micrograms & below), down 39% (2000-2018)
Sulfur dioxide, down 91%
Drinking Water. “Generally, water systems in the United States provide reliable and high-quality drinking water. Violations tend to be infrequent.” Source: PNAS
Surface waters. U.S. surface waters are as clean as any in the world and progress continues to be made. Since 2005, 832 bodies of water have been restored from run-off/non-point-source pollution. Under President Trump’s leadership, this includes 131 bodies of water. [Source: EPA]
Waste sites. Superfund waste site clean ups have accelerated under the Trump administration [Source: EPA]:
Last two years of Obama EPA – 9 sites cleaned up, vs.
First two years of the Trump EPA – 28 sites cleaned up
Also, there is no evidence that any emissions or releases from any toxic waste site has caused any harm to human health. [Source: Milloy, S. Science-Based Risk Assessment: A Piece of the Superfund Puzzle (National Environmental Policy Institute, 1995)
Greenest Earth. The Earth is greener than ever before, according to NASA [Source: https://ift.tt/2eaNs6I%5D.
Climate. Since the pre-industrial age, there has been approximately 1.1°C of warming and almost 50% more CO2 in the atmosphere. Since that time, more people are living longer lives at a higher standard of living [Source: OurWorldInData.org]
Life expectancy is up from approx. 40 years (1850) to approx. 79 (2019)
US per capita GDP is up from approx. $2,825 in 1850 to approx. $53,000 in 2016 (2011 dollars)
The wealthiest nations are the cleanest and healthiest nations.
How did we clean our environment? Environmental progress is due to:
Awareness. Informed societal concern has grown since the late 1940s.
Informed societal concern has grown since the late 1940s. Wealth. Financial resources have allowed the nation to afford a clean environment.
Financial resources have allowed the nation to afford a clean environment. Appropriate laws/regulations. Successful regulation has been fact-driven, not ideology-driven. Economy killing overregulation has opposed and avoided.
Successful regulation has been fact-driven, not ideology-driven. Economy killing overregulation has opposed and avoided. Improved science/technology. Technology has provided an improved ability to assess and remedy environmental problems.
What does the future hold? Our environment is clean and safe. We will be able to maintain this status with:
More wealth
Strong property rights
New technologies
Better education
Less hysteria
Verdict on environmental activism & Earth Day. While green groups and Earth Day organizers will grasp for all environmental improvement and protection credit since 1970, the actual story is far more complex.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-17--COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California #coronavirus

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [ what does this mean ? ]
.
It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice .
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern .
To date , many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters .
We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County .
Methods On 4/3-4/4 , 2020 , we tested county residents for antibodies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics .
We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people , adjusting for zip code , sex , and race/ethnicity .
We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates : ( i ) the test manufacturer ’ s data , ( ii ) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford , and ( iii ) a combination of both .
Results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Santa Clara County was 1.5 % ( exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97 % ) , and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81 % ( 95CI 2.24-3.37 % ) .
Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics , the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49 % ( 95CI 1.80-3.17 % ) to 4.16 % ( 2.58-5.70 % ) .
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April , 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases .
Conclusions The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases .
Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections .

From medRxiv
Eran Bendavid, Bianca Mulaney, Neeraj Sood, Soleil Shah, Emilia Ling, Rebecca Bromley-Dulfano, Cara Lai, Zoe Weissberg, Rodrigo Saavedra, James Tedrow, Dona Tversky, Andrew Bogan, Thomas Kupiec, Daniel Eichner, Ribhav Gupta, John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya
doi: https://ift.tt/2ykkQoG
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer’s data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Full article here