iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--Study: Oxford Academics Promote Covid-19 Renewable Investment Stimulus

According to the Oxford meta-analysis , the least desirable stimulus measures proposed are airline bailouts , traditional transport infrastructure , income tax cuts , reduction in VAT and other goods and services taxes , and rural support policies .
The abstract of the study ; Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change ?
The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change .
Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system .
Here , we survey 231 central bank officials , finance ministry officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions : speed of implementation , economic multiplier , climate impact potential , and overall desirability .
We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics : clean physical infrastructure , building efficiency retrofits , investment in education and training , natural capital investment , and clean R & D .
In lower- and middle- income countries ( LMICs ) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R & D is less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions .
Essentially their argument is green investment creates lots of jobs upfront , and provides lasting benefits ; for example , they allege renewable energy requires fewer people to maintain once the infrastructure is built , improving economic efficiency .
… A lesson from the GFC is that green stimulus policies often have advantages over traditional fiscal stimulus .
For instance , renewable energy investment is attractive in both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Renewable energy generates more jobs in the short run ( higher jobs multiplier ) , when jobs are scarce in the middle of a recession , which boosts spending and increases short-run GDP multipliers ( which are derived from expanding demand ) .
In the long run , renewable energy conveniently requires less labour for operation and maintenance ( Blyth et al.
, 2014 ) .
This frees up labour as the economy returns to capacity .
The more efficient use of labour and the savings on fuel means that renewables are also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which are derived from expanding supply ) .
… Read more : Same link as above The big unanswered question the study leaves is , if renewable energy has no fuel costs and has lower labor costs , why is it so horribly expensive ?
Why do renewable advocates scream every time someone threatens to cut their government subsidies ?
In the UK , Scotland ’ s Energy Minister Fergus Ewing has criticised the central government for cutting subsidies that support the uptake of renewable energy .
Speaking at a Bloomberg Energy Finance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saying : “ We are extremely disappointed that the UK government since May has decided to embark on what we can only term as an outright onslaught on renewables through removing planned , tried , tested , promised , clear investment commitments .
“ That ’ s no way to continue to attract investors.
” The obvious answer to this paradox is they need the subsidy money .
There is a hidden cost associated with renewables , a cost which was not discussed by the authors of the Oxford study .
Claims that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or even a short term benefit should be treated with extreme caution , until the renewables sector demonstrates it can thrive and compete without government subsidies or other market distorting mechanisms such as forced purchases of renewable energy .
The last thing we need , at a time when the global economy is stretched to the brink with Covid-19 lockdowns and spiralling medical costs , is to bet everything on trying something new , especially something with as poor a track record of economic return as investments in renewable energy .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the Oxford meta-analysis, the least desirable stimulus measures proposed are airline bailouts, traditional transport infrastructure, income tax cuts, reduction in VAT and other goods and services taxes, and rural support policies.
The abstract of the study;
Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change? The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D. In lower- and middle- income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&D is less important. These recommendations are contextualised through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions. Read more: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/wpapers/workingpaper20-02.pdf
Essentially their argument is green investment creates lots of jobs upfront, and provides lasting benefits; for example, they allege renewable energy requires fewer people to maintain once the infrastructure is built, improving economic efficiency.
… A lesson from the GFC is that green stimulus policies often have advantages over traditional fiscal stimulus. For instance, renewable energy investment is attractive in both the short and the long run. Renewable energy generates more jobs in the short run (higher jobs multiplier), when jobs are scarce in the middle of a recession, which boosts spending and increases short-run GDP multipliers (which are derived from expanding demand). In the long run, renewable energy conveniently requires less labour for operation and maintenance (Blyth et al., 2014). This frees up labour as the economy returns to capacity. The more efficient use of labour and the savings on fuel means that renewables are also able to offer higher long-run multipliers (which are derived from expanding supply). … Read more: Same link as above
The big unanswered question the study leaves is, if renewable energy has no fuel costs and has lower labor costs, why is it so horribly expensive? Why do renewable advocates scream every time someone threatens to cut their government subsidies?
… In the UK, Scotland’s Energy Minister Fergus Ewing has criticised the central government for cutting subsidies that support the uptake of renewable energy. Speaking at a Bloomberg Energy Finance conference, Mr Ewing was reported as saying: “We are extremely disappointed that the UK government since May has decided to embark on what we can only term as an outright onslaught on renewables through removing planned, tried, tested, promised, clear investment commitments. “That’s no way to continue to attract investors.” … Read more: https://www.smart-energy.com/regional-news/europe-uk/scotland-slams-uk-renewable-energy-subsidy-cuts/
The obvious answer to this paradox is they need the subsidy money. There is a hidden cost associated with renewables, a cost which was not discussed by the authors of the Oxford study.
Claims that renewables offer any long term economic benefit or even a short term benefit should be treated with extreme caution, until the renewables sector demonstrates it can thrive and compete without government subsidies or other market distorting mechanisms such as forced purchases of renewable energy.
The last thing we need, at a time when the global economy is stretched to the brink with Covid-19 lockdowns and spiralling medical costs, is to bet everything on trying something new, especially something with as poor a track record of economic return as investments in renewable energy.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--California to imitate Harvard Howler: Air regulator CARB to fraudulently link PM2.5 to COVID-19

On fraud begets another .
Air quality harms no one ’ s health and certainly has no effect on COVID-19 .
But America ’ s communists are going all out to defeat President Trump , including the bogus effort to connect PM2.5 and deaths from COVID-19 .
According to the Inside EPA ( May 6 ) : CARB officials said during an April 23 board meeting — prior to the change in the Harvard study ’ s conclusion — that they plan to soon launch a similar study , though one focused solely on California that would also examine additional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are investigating is a California-specific version of the Harvard study .
.
.
considering the role of air pollution in COVID health outcomes , ” said CARB staffer Bonnie-Holmes Gen , a former longtime policy director for the American Lung Association in California .
“ While the Harvard study looked only at PM 2.5 and associated mortality , we are working with contractors to develop a study that goes beyond mortality to also look at the role of air pollution in increasing the rates of COVID-19 deaths and illnesses , as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” she said .
CARB expects the study will be completed within the next six months , according to Holmes-Gen .
The connection between air pollution levels and COVID-19 illnesses and death rates “ highlights another benefit from strong air pollution controls , and an important reason to keep pushing forward on clean air progress as quickly as possible , ” she said .

On fraud begets another. Air quality harms no one’s health and certainly has no effect on COVID-19. But America’s communists are going all out to defeat President Trump, including the bogus effort to connect PM2.5 and deaths from COVID-19.
According to the Inside EPA (May 6):
CARB officials said during an April 23 board meeting — prior to the change in the Harvard study’s conclusion — that they plan to soon launch a similar study, though one focused solely on California that would also examine additional air pollutants.
“One study we are investigating is a California-specific version of the Harvard study . . . considering the role of air pollution in COVID health outcomes,” said CARB staffer Bonnie-Holmes Gen, a former longtime policy director for the American Lung Association in California.
“While the Harvard study looked only at PM 2.5 and associated mortality, we are working with contractors to develop a study that goes beyond mortality to also look at the role of air pollution in increasing the rates of COVID-19 deaths and illnesses, as well as looking into demographics and socioeconomic status differences,” she said.
CARB expects the study will be completed within the next six months, according to Holmes-Gen.
The connection between air pollution levels and COVID-19 illnesses and death rates “highlights another benefit from strong air pollution controls, and an important reason to keep pushing forward on clean air progress as quickly as possible,” she said.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--Harvard fraudsters use Obama EPA money to attack Trump administration with PM2.5-COVID19 study

The recent “ Harvard Howler ” trying to link PM2.5 with COVID-19 deaths was funded by money Harvard received from @ @ @ @ @ Dominici ( pictured above ) was a lead investigator of the study and a principal @ @ @ @ @ grants .
Here are the EPA grants : • The 83587201-0 grant is here .
@ @ @ @ @ EPA in 2015 .
Worth $ 10 million .
• The RD-83479801 grant is here @ @ @ @ @ Obama EPA in 2011 and lasted until the end of 2016 at $ 7.9 million @ @ @ @ @ chased down the NIH grants yet .
As far as the HEI grant is concerned @ @ @ @ @ funded by EPA and the rest by the car , truck and oil industries ( @ @ @ @ @ ) .

The recent “Harvard Howler” trying to link PM2.5 with COVID-19 deaths was funded by money Harvard received from the Obama EPA.
Here’s the study funding acknowledgement.
Francesca Dominici (pictured above) was a lead investigator of the study and a principal investigator on the Obama EPA grants.
Here are the EPA grants:
The 83587201-0 grant is here. It was issued by Obama EPA in 2015. Worth $10 million.
The RD-83479801 grant is here. Initially issued by the Obama EPA in 2011 and lasted until the end of 2016 at $7.9 million.
I haven’t chased down the NIH grants yet. As far as the HEI grant is concerned, HEI is 50% funded by EPA and the rest by the car, truck and oil industries (for a variety of reasons).


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--Beware: the famous Flu death tally is “highly adjusted” and Coronavirus is still 10 times worse

The annual Flu death tally is not what it seems It ’ s another bubble I don ’ t want to pop .
Thanks for sticking in there in the quest for data that counts .
People worry that doctors are inflating the number of Coronavirus-deaths by listing other kinds of deaths in the Covid category .
Fair enough .
But they miss that this has effectively already been done with the famous flu death count .
The national discussion is stuck in a rut , because it ’ s trying to compare confirmed cases of Coronavirus with modelized broad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s tempting to cite the current toll of 72,000 US Coronavirus deaths and wonder why we ’ ve reacted so differently to the worst influenza season where 62,000 people died of the flu ( supposedly ) .
But the actual confirmed cases of influenza deaths in the US are only 3,000 – 15,000 annually .
Coronavirus really is on a different scale .
The headline grabbing flu numbers are modeled guesses based on assumptions about things like how many people go to hospital , how many get tested , or what other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s called the Influenza Disease Burden , not the List of Those Who Died , because it ’ s statistics and word-games .
And [ … ]

The annual Flu death tally is not what it seems
It’s another bubble I don’t want to pop. Thanks for sticking in there in the quest for data that counts.
People worry that doctors are inflating the number of Coronavirus-deaths by listing other kinds of deaths in the Covid category. Fair enough. But they miss that this has effectively already been done with the famous flu death count. The national discussion is stuck in a rut, because it’s trying to compare confirmed cases of Coronavirus with modelized broad category influenza “burdens”.
It’s tempting to cite the current toll of 72,000 US Coronavirus deaths and wonder why we’ve reacted so differently to the worst influenza season where 62,000 people died of the flu (supposedly). But the actual confirmed cases of influenza deaths in the US are only 3,000 – 15,000 annually. Coronavirus really is on a different scale.
The headline grabbing flu numbers are modeled guesses based on assumptions about things like how many people go to hospital, how many get tested, or what other diseases were around at the time. It’s called the Influenza Disease Burden, not the List of Those Who Died, because it’s statistics and word-games. And […]
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May 6, 2020 at 01:25PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--Cold air rises—what that means for Earth’s climate

Are these researchers proposing a kind of reverse greenhouse effect in the tropics ?
Conventional knowledge has it that warm air rises while cold air sinks , says Phys.org .
But a study from the University of California , Davis , found that in the tropical atmosphere , cold air rises due to an overlooked effect—the lightness of water vapor .
This effect helps to stabilize tropical climates and buffer some of the impacts of a warming climate .
The study , published today in the journal Science Advances , is among the first to show the profound implications water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate and energy balance .
“ It ’ s well-known that water vapor is an important greenhouse gas that warms the planet , ” said senior author Da Yang , an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at UC Davis and a joint faculty scientist with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory .
“ But on the other hand , water vapor has a buoyancy effect which helps release the heat of the atmosphere to space and reduce the degree of warming .
Without this lightness of water vapor , the climate warming would be even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dry air under the same temperature and pressure conditions .
This is called the vapor buoyancy effect .
This study discovered this effect allows cold , humid air to rise , forming clouds and thunderstorms in Earth ’ s tropics .
Meanwhile , warm , dry air sinks in clear skies .
Earth ’ s atmosphere then emits more energy to space than it otherwise would without vapor buoyancy .
The study found that the lightness of water vapor increases Earth ’ s thermal emission by about 1-3 watts per square meter over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the amount of energy captured by doubling carbon dioxide in the atmosphere .
The authors ’ calculations further suggest that the radiative effects of vapor buoyancy increase exponentially with climate warming .

Are these researchers proposing a kind of reverse greenhouse effect in the tropics?
Conventional knowledge has it that warm air rises while cold air sinks, says Phys.org.
But a study from the University of California, Davis, found that in the tropical atmosphere, cold air rises due to an overlooked effect—the lightness of water vapor.
This effect helps to stabilize tropical climates and buffer some of the impacts of a warming climate.
The study, published today in the journal Science Advances, is among the first to show the profound implications water vapor buoyancy has on Earth’s climate and energy balance.
“It’s well-known that water vapor is an important greenhouse gas that warms the planet,” said senior author Da Yang, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at UC Davis and a joint faculty scientist with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
“But on the other hand, water vapor has a buoyancy effect which helps release the heat of the atmosphere to space and reduce the degree of warming. Without this lightness of water vapor, the climate warming would be even worse.”
Humid air is lighter than dry air under the same temperature and pressure conditions. This is called the vapor buoyancy effect. This study discovered this effect allows cold, humid air to rise, forming clouds and thunderstorms in Earth’s tropics.
Meanwhile, warm, dry air sinks in clear skies. Earth’s atmosphere then emits more energy to space than it otherwise would without vapor buoyancy.
The study found that the lightness of water vapor increases Earth’s thermal emission by about 1-3 watts per square meter over the tropics. That value compares with the amount of energy captured by doubling carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The authors’ calculations further suggest that the radiative effects of vapor buoyancy increase exponentially with climate warming.
Full article here.
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May 6, 2020 at 01:18PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--Matt McGrath & The Carbon Crash

Matt McGrath & The Carbon Crash

Matt McGrath is away with the fairies again !
We ’ re living through the biggest carbon crash ever recorded .
No war , no recession , no previous pandemic has had such a dramatic impact on emissions of CO2 over the past century as Covid-19 has in a few short months .
Multiple sources indicate we are now living through an unrivalled drop in carbon output .
But even though we will see a massive fall this year , the concentrations of CO2 that are in the atmosphere and warming our planet won ’ t stabilise until the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , since the Spanish flu killed millions over 100 years ago , the global expansion of emissions of CO2 , from the use of oil , gas and coal has risen massively .
While these energy sources have transformed the world , the carbon seeping into our atmosphere has driven up global temperatures by just over 1C since the mid-1850s .
They could rise by 3-4C by the end of this century if CO2 levels aren ’ t savagely reduced .
Over the past 100 years , as indicated on the graphic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dramatic falls in carbon are possible .
Much is made of the financial crash in 2008-2009 , but in reality , carbon emissions only fell by around 450 million tonnes between 2008 and 2009 .
This is much smaller than the fall in CO2 in the aftermath of World War II , which saw a drop of around 800 million tonnes .
It is also smaller than the global recession in the early 1980s that followed the oil crisis of the late 1970s .
During this period , CO2 went down by around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic of 2020 dwarves all of these previous shocks by some distance .
In a few months , demand for energy globally has fallen off a cliff .
The International Energy Agency ( IEA ) says that the world will use 6 % less this year – equivalent to losing the entire energy demand of India .
This will feed through to large falls in CO2 .
A number of different analyses , including this one from Carbon Brief , show that emissions this year will fall by 4-8 % , somewhere between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warming gas .
That ’ s between six and ten times larger than during the last global recession .
By air and on roads , the world has cut back heavily on travel .
Full lockdowns have also pushed global electricity demand down by 20 % or more , says the IEA .
Across the full year , the need for electricity will fall by 5 % – the biggest drop since the Great Depression of the 1930s .
`` This is an historic shock to the entire energy world , '' says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The changes in energy demand will have a knock-on effect on global coal demand , which is set to fall 8 % this year .
With China the first country to stall its economy in response to the virus , coal use dropped sharply at first , though it is now rebounding and the expectation among energy analysts is that production this year will be down by just over 1 % .
Researchers say the biggest thing hitting CO2 emissions right now is the reduction in road transport .
Image copyright Getty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by half in the US According to the IEA global average road transport activity fell to 50 % of the 2019 level by the end of March 2020 .
As can be seen in our chart , almost every country has seen a huge drop in road use .
This has resulted in a massive fall in the use of oil .
`` Back in the 2009 recession , average oil demand dropped by 1.3 million barrels per day versus 2008 .
And now 2020 is set to average 10 million barrels per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Erik Holm Reiso , from Rystad Energy , an independent research firm .
Similarly , air travel has dropped hugely , but by different amounts in different regions .
In Europe , the number of flights is down around 90 % , whereas in the US it has been more resilient with around half the number of planes taking off compared to last year .
Globally , though , the demand for jet fuel is down 65 % year-on-year to April .
`` What we ’ re seeing is that the largest relative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Robbie Andrew , a senior researcher at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research ( Cicero ) .
`` But air emissions are only about 3 % of global total .
So while the relative reductions in land transport are lower than air transport , the absolute reductions there are much more significant . ''
It ’ s not the same everywhere While the lockdown might feel rather uniform across the world , there have been huge variations in emissions reductions from different cities .
If we take Paris and New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as shown on our chart , is huge .
Paris saw a CO2 drop of 72 % ( +/-15 % ) in the month of March compared to normal .
New York in the same period , saw a CO2 fall of around 10 % .
So why the big difference ?
`` In the Paris area , there are no large fossil fuel power plants , or industrial sites , '' said Philippe Ciais , from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace in Paris .
`` Another difference is whether buildings are heated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France , around 70 % of electricity comes from nuclear . ''
Much of New York ’ s CO2 comes from emissions related to the heating of buildings .
But significant emissions come from fossil fuel plants based within the city limits .
Cars make up a much smaller proportion of overall energy use .
`` I guess something to think about is that we shut down the entire city and got a reduction of 10 % in the CO2 emissions , '' said Prof Róisín Commane from Columbia University in New York @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 80 % of our previous CO2 emissions .
That is a massive number .
So personal behaviour really isn ’ t going to fix the carbon emission problem .
We need a systematic change in how energy is generated and transmitted . ''
Back in 2008 , the European electricity industry was hit badly by the global financial recession and demand for power fell sharply .
But when that demand picked up again , it was solar and wind that were by then large enough to supply all the growth .
Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce electricity never returned to the level it had been at before the crash .
Experts now believe something similar could happen with the coronavirus pandemic .
`` In about half of the world , we ’ ve already seen peak demand for fossil fuels , '' said Kingsmill Bond , from independent financial think tank Carbon Tracker .
`` In Europe it was 2005 , in the USA 2007 . ''
This means that the trend in demand has been downhill ever since .
He added : `` There has been a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If you look at car demand , it is increasingly accepted that you saw peak conventional car demand in 2017 . ''
So will the pandemic ’ s big hit on carbon mean that last year , 2019 , becomes the year the world reached a turning point ?
The carbon emissions drop that followed the recession in 2009 was followed by a sharp rise of almost 6 % in 2010 .
Something similar could happen over the next couple of years .
`` At this point , we do not see any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ societal response to it will lead to significant and permanent changes in the path of future global emissions , '' said Robbie Andrew from Cicero .
`` Right at the moment what we ’ re seeing are immediate emissions responses , and following most previous crises , global emissions have returned to their pre-crisis trajectory . ''
What if CO2 was cut like this each year ?
To keep the world on track to stay under 1.5C this century , the world needs similar cuts for the foreseeable future to keep this target @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a drop in emissions of around 5 % in 2020 , then that is the sort of reduction we need every year until net-zero emissions are reached around 2050 , '' said Glen Peters , also from Cicero .
`` Such emissions reductions will not happen via lockdowns and restrictions , but by climate policies that lead to the deployment of clean technologies and reductions in demand for energy . ''
Energy experts believe there will be a bounce back next year , but that , long term , the world will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may not be enough to keep temperatures down to safer levels .
`` That downward slope will accelerate over time beyond peak fossil energy , '' said Erik Holm Reiso , from Rystad Energy .
`` That doesn ’ t chime with 1.5C , but maybe 1.8-1.9C degrees could be within reach and this situation right now could help achieve that , I think . ''
Many climate researchers are optimistic that this deadly pandemic has taught governments some critical lessons that they can apply to the problem of rising temperatures .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a green focus .
According to Prof Gail Whiteman from Lancaster University , UK , it was almost impossible to believe that governments around the world , when faced with a health emergency , would put humanity ahead of the economy .
But they did .
`` We can recover from an existential , complex threat and emerge much stronger and more resilient , '' she says .
`` Which strengthens the idea that we can do things differently on climate , that we can tackle this one .
`` I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sorry to spoil the party , Matt , but there one or two holes in your logic !
First of all , despite most of the world being on lockdown , emissions will only fall by 6 % , effectively taking them back to where they were in 2015 .
In other words , half crippling the world ’ s economy has made no more than a dent .
He then proceeds to claim : While these energy sources have transformed the world , the carbon seeping into our atmosphere has driven up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mid-1850s .
But as his own graph shows , emissions of carbon dioxide barely increased at all until after the war , so could not have causes the first part of the warming .
Furthermore the fastest rise in CO2 was between the war and 1980 , but this was also a period of global cooling .
Over the past 100 years , as indicated on the graphic , a number of events have shown that dramatic falls in carbon are possible .
But none of these were “ dramatic ” , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we should embrace a 1930s style Great Depression or bomb ourselves to smithereens , just so we can cut CO2 by a little bit , would not be regarded by any sane person as “ possible ” .
As he points out , travel by both car and planes has collapsed .
Yet the resulting fall in emissions has been tiny .
This proves that the clamouring from eco-loons to ban these methods of transport will make little overall difference .
But still he dreams on !
Back in 2008 , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the global financial recession and demand for power fell sharply .
But when that demand picked up again , it was solar and wind that were by then large enough to supply all the growth .
Europe ’ s use of fossil fuels to produce electricity never returned to the level it had been at before the crash .
Experts now believe something similar could happen with the coronavirus pandemic .
He apparently forgets that the only reason why renewables took up the slack in Europe was because of the massive subsidies thrown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EU , emissions of carbon dioxide have only fallen by 11 % since 2009 .
There is no serious likelihood that Asia and the rest of the developing world could afford or would want to do the same as Europe did .
Indeed , everything about Europe ’ s experience suggests that renewables will never be able to play more than a minor role in powering modern economies .
As he admits , the world would need emission cuts of the current magnitude every year until 2050 , to hit the 1.5C target @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year ’ s economic collapse for long , never mind 30 years worth !
Final word goes to Prof Gail Whiteman , who apparently is Director of the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business – a non job if I ever saw one : It was almost impossible to believe that governments around the world , when faced with a health emergency , would put humanity ahead of the economy .
But they did .
Unfortunately , Gail , humanity and the economy ultimately go hand in hand .
You can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some abstract phenomenon , but is made up of the livelihoods of ordinary people .
Damage one and you damage the other .
Is that what you want ?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Matt McGrath is away with the fairies again!
We’re living through the biggest carbon crash ever recorded.
No war, no recession, no previous pandemic has had such a dramatic impact on emissions of CO2 over the past century as Covid-19 has in a few short months.
Multiple sources indicate we are now living through an unrivalled drop in carbon output.
But even though we will see a massive fall this year, the concentrations of CO2 that are in the atmosphere and warming our planet won’t stabilise until the world reaches net-zero.
As our chart shows, since the Spanish flu killed millions over 100 years ago, the global expansion of emissions of CO2, from the use of oil, gas and coal has risen massively.
While these energy sources have transformed the world, the carbon seeping into our atmosphere has driven up global temperatures by just over 1C since the mid-1850s.
They could rise by 3-4C by the end of this century if CO2 levels aren’t savagely reduced.
Over the past 100 years, as indicated on the graphic, a number of events have shown that dramatic falls in carbon are possible.
Much is made of the financial crash in 2008-2009, but in reality, carbon emissions only fell by around 450 million tonnes between 2008 and 2009.
This is much smaller than the fall in CO2 in the aftermath of World War II, which saw a drop of around 800 million tonnes.
It is also smaller than the global recession in the early 1980s that followed the oil crisis of the late 1970s.
During this period, CO2 went down by around one billion tonnes.
But the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 dwarves all of these previous shocks by some distance.
In a few months, demand for energy globally has fallen off a cliff.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that the world will use 6% less this year – equivalent to losing the entire energy demand of India.
This will feed through to large falls in CO2.
Image copyright Getty Images
A number of different analyses, including this one from Carbon Brief, show that emissions this year will fall by 4-8%, somewhere between 2 and 3 billion tonnes of the warming gas.
That’s between six and ten times larger than during the last global recession.
We’re travelling less
By air and on roads, the world has cut back heavily on travel.
Full lockdowns have also pushed global electricity demand down by 20% or more, says the IEA.
Across the full year, the need for electricity will fall by 5% – the biggest drop since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
"This is an historic shock to the entire energy world," says Dr Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.
The changes in energy demand will have a knock-on effect on global coal demand, which is set to fall 8% this year.
With China the first country to stall its economy in response to the virus, coal use dropped sharply at first, though it is now rebounding and the expectation among energy analysts is that production this year will be down by just over 1%.
Researchers say the biggest thing hitting CO2 emissions right now is the reduction in road transport.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Air travel has fallen by half in the US
According to the IEA global average road transport activity fell to 50% of the 2019 level by the end of March 2020.
As can be seen in our chart, almost every country has seen a huge drop in road use. This has resulted in a massive fall in the use of oil.
"Back in the 2009 recession, average oil demand dropped by 1.3 million barrels per day versus 2008. And now 2020 is set to average 10 million barrels per day less than 2019." said Erik Holm Reiso, from Rystad Energy, an independent research firm.
"It’s a much more severe cycle."
Similarly, air travel has dropped hugely, but by different amounts in different regions.
In Europe, the number of flights is down around 90%, whereas in the US it has been more resilient with around half the number of planes taking off compared to last year.
Globally, though, the demand for jet fuel is down 65% year-on-year to April.
"What we’re seeing is that the largest relative reduction is in air traffic," said Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (Cicero).
"But air emissions are only about 3% of global total. So while the relative reductions in land transport are lower than air transport, the absolute reductions there are much more significant."
It’s not the same everywhere
While the lockdown might feel rather uniform across the world, there have been huge variations in emissions reductions from different cities.
If we take Paris and New York as examples, the contrast, as shown on our chart, is huge.
Paris saw a CO2 drop of 72% (+/-15%) in the month of March compared to normal.
New York in the same period, saw a CO2 fall of around 10%.
So why the big difference?
"In the Paris area, there are no large fossil fuel power plants, or industrial sites," said Philippe Ciais, from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace in Paris.
"Another difference is whether buildings are heated with fuels or with electricity. In France, around 70% of electricity comes from nuclear."
Much of New York’s CO2 comes from emissions related to the heating of buildings. But significant emissions come from fossil fuel plants based within the city limits. Cars make up a much smaller proportion of overall energy use.
"I guess something to think about is that we shut down the entire city and got a reduction of 10% in the CO2 emissions," said Prof Róisín Commane from Columbia University in New York.
"We are still emitting more than 80% of our previous CO2 emissions. That is a massive number. So personal behaviour really isn’t going to fix the carbon emission problem. We need a systematic change in how energy is generated and transmitted."
Have CO2 emissions already peaked?
Back in 2008, the European electricity industry was hit badly by the global financial recession and demand for power fell sharply.
But when that demand picked up again, it was solar and wind that were by then large enough to supply all the growth.
Europe’s use of fossil fuels to produce electricity never returned to the level it had been at before the crash.
Experts now believe something similar could happen with the coronavirus pandemic.
"In about half of the world, we’ve already seen peak demand for fossil fuels," said Kingsmill Bond, from independent financial think tank Carbon Tracker.
"In Europe it was 2005, in the USA 2007."
This means that the trend in demand has been downhill ever since.
He added: "There has been a global coal demand peak in 2013. If you look at car demand, it is increasingly accepted that you saw peak conventional car demand in 2017."
So will the pandemic’s big hit on carbon mean that last year, 2019, becomes the year the world reached a turning point?
Not so fast.
The carbon emissions drop that followed the recession in 2009 was followed by a sharp rise of almost 6% in 2010.
Something similar could happen over the next couple of years.
"At this point, we do not see any clear signs that the pandemic and our societal response to it will lead to significant and permanent changes in the path of future global emissions," said Robbie Andrew from Cicero.
"Right at the moment what we’re seeing are immediate emissions responses, and following most previous crises, global emissions have returned to their pre-crisis trajectory."
What if CO2 was cut like this each year?
To keep the world on track to stay under 1.5C this century, the world needs similar cuts for the foreseeable future to keep this target in view.
"If Covid-19 leads to a drop in emissions of around 5% in 2020, then that is the sort of reduction we need every year until net-zero emissions are reached around 2050," said Glen Peters, also from Cicero.
"Such emissions reductions will not happen via lockdowns and restrictions, but by climate policies that lead to the deployment of clean technologies and reductions in demand for energy."
Energy experts believe there will be a bounce back next year, but that, long term, the world will move to greener fuels.
But it may not be enough to keep temperatures down to safer levels.
"That downward slope will accelerate over time beyond peak fossil energy," said Erik Holm Reiso, from Rystad Energy.
"That doesn’t chime with 1.5C, but maybe 1.8-1.9C degrees could be within reach and this situation right now could help achieve that, I think."
Lessons learnt?
Many climate researchers are optimistic that this deadly pandemic has taught governments some critical lessons that they can apply to the problem of rising temperatures.
The big challenge is to ensure the recovery has a green focus.
According to Prof Gail Whiteman from Lancaster University, UK, it was almost impossible to believe that governments around the world, when faced with a health emergency, would put humanity ahead of the economy. But they did.
"We can recover from an existential, complex threat and emerge much stronger and more resilient," she says.
"Which strengthens the idea that we can do things differently on climate, that we can tackle this one.
"I think it gives us huge energy."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52485712
Sorry to spoil the party, Matt, but there one or two holes in your logic!
First of all, despite most of the world being on lockdown, emissions will only fall by 6%, effectively taking them back to where they were in 2015. In other words, half crippling the world’s economy has made no more than a dent.
He then proceeds to claim:
While these energy sources have transformed the world, the carbon seeping into our atmosphere has driven up global temperatures by just over 1C since the mid-1850s.
But as his own graph shows, emissions of carbon dioxide barely increased at all until after the war, so could not have causes the first part of the warming.
Furthermore the fastest rise in CO2 was between the war and 1980, but this was also a period of global cooling.
Laughingly he then writes:
Over the past 100 years, as indicated on the graphic, a number of events have shown that dramatic falls in carbon are possible.
But none of these were “dramatic”, more like blips. And the idea that we should embrace a 1930s style Great Depression or bomb ourselves to smithereens, just so we can cut CO2 by a little bit, would not be regarded by any sane person as “possible”.
As he points out, travel by both car and planes has collapsed. Yet the resulting fall in emissions has been tiny. This proves that the clamouring from eco-loons to ban these methods of transport will make little overall difference.
But still he dreams on!
Back in 2008, the European electricity industry was hit badly by the global financial recession and demand for power fell sharply.
But when that demand picked up again, it was solar and wind that were by then large enough to supply all the growth.
Europe’s use of fossil fuels to produce electricity never returned to the level it had been at before the crash.
Experts now believe something similar could happen with the coronavirus pandemic.
He apparently forgets that the only reason why renewables took up the slack in Europe was because of the massive subsidies thrown at them. Even then in the EU, emissions of carbon dioxide have only fallen by 11% since 2009.
There is no serious likelihood that Asia and the rest of the developing world could afford or would want to do the same as Europe did.
Indeed, everything about Europe’s experience suggests that renewables will never be able to play more than a minor role in powering modern economies.
As he admits, the world would need emission cuts of the current magnitude every year until 2050, to hit the 1.5C target. Plainly we cannot even afford this year’s economic collapse for long, never mind 30 years worth!
Final word goes to Prof Gail Whiteman, who apparently is Director of the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business – a non job if I ever saw one:
It was almost impossible to believe that governments around the world, when faced with a health emergency, would put humanity ahead of the economy. But they did.
Unfortunately, Gail, humanity and the economy ultimately go hand in hand. You cannot separate them.
The economy is not some abstract phenomenon, but is made up of the livelihoods of ordinary people. Damage one and you damage the other.
Is that what you want?
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May 6, 2020 at 12:57PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-06--Flood Trends In England

Flood Trends In England

The Environment Agency have been keeping annual summaries of the number of properties flooded in England .
I asked them @ @ @ @ @ prior to 1998 , but unfortunately the answer was no .
Nevertheless the table does @ @ @ @ @ floods this year , and last autumn ’ s .
via NOT A LOT OF @ @ @

By Paul Homewood
The Environment Agency have been keeping annual summaries of the number of properties flooded in England.
I asked them if they have any data prior to 1998, but unfortunately the answer was no.
Nevertheless the table does put into perspective the February floods this year, and last autumn’s.
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May 6, 2020 at 11:45AM


Eisenhower’s Farewell Speech

In his farewell speech , President Eisenhower warned about the rise of the Military Industrial Complex , and academics seizing @ @ @ @ @ I ’ m surprised his speech hasn ’ t been censored yet – like the @ @ @ @ @ how corrupt academics had seized control of public policy .
Telling the truth is generally @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .

In his farewell speech, President Eisenhower warned about the rise of the Military Industrial Complex, and academics seizing control of public policy.
I’m surprised his speech hasn’t been censored yet – like the Plandemic video, which explained how corrupt academics had seized control of public policy. Telling the truth is generally not permitted in the year 2020.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--New Study: 11,500 Years Ago, Spain Warmed And Cooled ~3°C Within Decades…Warmth Was ‘Higher Than Cur

New Study: 11,500 Years Ago, Spain Warmed And Cooled ~3°C Within Decades…Warmth Was ‘Higher Than Current’

At the end of the last glacial , when CO2 concentrations hovered around 250 ppm , there were abrupt warming and cooling events in the Spanish mountains ( Béjar range ) with magnitudes of 3°C within decades .
Peak temperatures were at times warmer than today .
It has often been claimed that abrupt warming and cooling events with amplitudes reaching multiple degrees within 20 to 50 years were confined to records obtained from polar climates .
Greenland , for example , warmed by 8 to 16°C “ within decades or less ” 20 or more times during the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 ) .
The warming and cooling events may have occurred in the absence of an external an forcing mechanism ; instead , they were an “ unforced oscillation ” .
The abrupt climate changes extended throughout the Northern Hemisphere and even into the Southern Hemisphere .
In the northeastern United States , temperatures plummeted by 5.6°C within 200 years about 13,000 years ago ( Hou et al.
, 2007 ) .
Then , around 11,600 years ago , temperatures abruptly rose ~5.4°C “ in less than 200 years ” .
One proxy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there was an 8°C warming event in the US about 11,500 years ago .
A new study ( Lopez-Saez et al.
, 2020 ) of the Late-Glacial-Early-Holocene period ( about 15,000 to 11,500 years ago ) analyzes evidence of tree cover transitions in the western Iberian region ( Spain ) .
Deciduous oak forests were assessed to have abruptly expanded and declined during this period .
The established temperature tolerances for this tree species suggest the warming-cooling transitions occurred within decades to centuries , and the climate change amplitudes could reach 2-4°C .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ concentrations during this Late-Glacial period ( ~250 ppm ) , the evidence suggests regional temperatures were warmer than today 13.9 , 12.3 , 11.5-11.3 , and 10.9 ka cal BP ( thousand calibrated years before present ) .
These pronounced natural climate change events in the paleoclimate record do not support the contention that modern temperture changes are unusual or unprecedented .

At the end of the last glacial, when CO2 concentrations hovered around 250 ppm, there were abrupt warming and cooling events in the Spanish mountains ( Béjar range) with magnitudes of 3°C within decades. Peak temperatures were at times warmer than today.
It has often been claimed that abrupt warming and cooling events with amplitudes reaching multiple degrees within 20 to 50 years were confined to records obtained from polar climates.
Greenland
Greenland, for example, warmed by 8 to 16°C “within decades or less” 20 or more times during the last 80,000 years (Li et al., 2019). The warming and cooling events may have occurred in the absence of an external an forcing mechanism; instead, they were an “unforced oscillation”. The abrupt climate changes extended throughout the Northern Hemisphere and even into the Southern Hemisphere.
New England (US)
In the northeastern United States, temperatures plummeted by 5.6°C within 200 years about 13,000 years ago (Hou et al., 2007). Then, around 11,600 years ago, temperatures abruptly rose ~5.4°C “in less than 200 years”. One proxy location (Blood Pond) even suggests there was an 8°C warming event in the US about 11,500 years ago.
Western Spain (Béjar)
A new study (Lopez-Saez et al., 2020) of the Late-Glacial-Early-Holocene period (about 15,000 to 11,500 years ago) analyzes evidence of tree cover transitions in the western Iberian region (Spain).
Deciduous oak forests were assessed to have abruptly expanded and declined during this period. The established temperature tolerances for this tree species suggest the warming-cooling transitions occurred within decades to centuries, and the climate change amplitudes could reach 2-4°C.
Despite the low and modestly fluctuating CO2 concentrations during this Late-Glacial period (~250 ppm), the evidence suggests regional temperatures were warmer than today 13.9, 12.3, 11.5-11.3, and 10.9 ka cal BP (thousand calibrated years before present).
These pronounced natural climate change events in the paleoclimate record do not support the contention that modern temperture changes are unusual or unprecedented.
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May 7, 2020 at 05:08AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--Mars: Noachian River System May Have Flowed >100,000 Years

The Noachian Period is named after Noachis Terra , an ancient highland region located between the huge Argyre and Hellas impact basins of the southern hemisphere .
This was still a period of heavy bombardment , with numerous asteroid and comet impacts .
These created the Hellas , Isidis and Argyre basins , the largest impact structures still visible on the planet today , as well as many of the craters that pockmark the southern highlands .
At the same time , large-scale volcanic activity was taking place in the Tharsis region and parts of the highlands .
The growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arsia Mons , Pavonis Mons and Ascraeus Mons , some of the largest volcanoes in the Solar System – coincided with widespread fracturing of the surface and the creation of the giant rift valley system known as Valles Marineris .
The volcanic eruptions poured ash and gases into the atmosphere .
As the thicker blanket of air trapped more solar heat , the planet warmed .
Clouds probably developed and precipitation rained to the ground .
Many of the valley networks on Mars date from this period , and lakes seem to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There may even have been a shallow ocean covering at least part of the northern lowlands .
Surface rovers have found evidence to indicate that many rocks were chemically altered by periodic or prolonged exposure to non-acidic ground water .
This led to the formation of clay minerals , known as phyllosilicates .
Meanwhile , as the interior of the planet cooled and its magnetic dynamo shut down , Mars no longer retained a global magnetic field .
Habitable environments gradually became smaller and more localised , but Noachian surface conditions continued to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Guest “ what a cool field trip this would be !
” by David Middleton An ancient river on Mars may have flowed for 100,000 years We know from images of Mars ’ s surface that the planet once had plenty of flowing water , but now we ’ ve found the first evidence of a river that was there for more than 100,000 years .
Francesco Salese at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and his colleagues discovered a high rocky cliff in the north-western rim of Mars ’ s Hellas basin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the flow of an ancient river .
As rivers moves , they deposit sediment that builds up in layers .
The rocky outcrop is 200 metres high – about twice the height of the White Cliffs of Dover – and 1.5 kilometres wide .
The sedimentary rocks of the cliff are an estimated 3.7 billion years old .
For something of this size to form , it would have required a river that was active for at least 100,000 Earth years .
“ To form these 200-metre-thick deposits we needed conditions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maintaining significant volumes of liquid water , ” says Salese .
That means the water would have flowed year round , which suggests that Mars once had a water cycle driven by precipitation , similar to that of Earth .
The full text of the paper , Salese et al.
, 2020 , is available and literally “ rocks !
” ( Whenever anyone says “ literally , ” they almost always mean figuratively . )
This image is from the New Scientist article : This appears to be an erosional exposure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of fluvial origin , covered by subsequent lava flows .
In this study , we use high-resolution imaging science experiment ( HiRISE ) image ( 25 cm/pixel ) and topographic ( 1 m/pixel ) data to describe the sedimentary-stratigraphic architecture of a far-larger , 1500-m-wide , 190-m-thick sedimentary succession .
The recently identified Izola outcrop is located in the northwestern rim of the Hellas basin ( Fig .
1a ) , a ~2000 km diameter impact structure containing a variety of 3.7 Ga Noachian Fe/Mg phyllosilicate-rich sedimentary intercrater plains , overlain by Hesperian-aged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These intercrater plains offer erosional windows which expose stratigraphic sections with well-preserved channel forms , and which must be older than the ~3.7 Ga overlying plains19 .
The channel forms and associated sedimentary packages are interpreted as the product of an actively depositing fluvial system , with the final sedimentary architecture suggesting that these Noachian-aged rivers were not typified by high-energy episodic floods , but rather perennial or semi-perennial fluvial flow .
The scale and completeness of the sedimentary succession offers a so far unique opportunity to assess the larger scale morphology of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detail of the sedimentary architecture is stunning .
Hopefully the Mars Perseverance Rover will launch on schedule , this summer .
It will explore Jezero crater , where evidence of both clay mineralogy ( phyllosilicates ) and lacustrine carbonates have been detected .
Perseverance will cache rock and regolith samples for future recovery .

Noachian (4.1 – 3.7 billion years ago) The Noachian Period is named after Noachis Terra, an ancient highland region located between the huge Argyre and Hellas impact basins of the southern hemisphere. This was still a period of heavy bombardment, with numerous asteroid and comet impacts. These created the Hellas, Isidis and Argyre basins, the largest impact structures still visible on the planet today, as well as many of the craters that pockmark the southern highlands. At the same time, large-scale volcanic activity was taking place in the Tharsis region and parts of the highlands. The growth of the Tharsis bulge – home to Arsia Mons, Pavonis Mons and Ascraeus Mons, some of the largest volcanoes in the Solar System – coincided with widespread fracturing of the surface and the creation of the giant rift valley system known as Valles Marineris. The volcanic eruptions poured ash and gases into the atmosphere. As the thicker blanket of air trapped more solar heat, the planet warmed. Clouds probably developed and precipitation rained to the ground. Many of the valley networks on Mars date from this period, and lakes seem to have formed in many basins and craters. There may even have been a shallow ocean covering at least part of the northern lowlands. Surface rovers have found evidence to indicate that many rocks were chemically altered by periodic or prolonged exposure to non-acidic ground water. This led to the formation of clay minerals, known as phyllosilicates. Meanwhile, as the interior of the planet cooled and its magnetic dynamo shut down, Mars no longer retained a global magnetic field. Habitable environments gradually became smaller and more localised, but Noachian surface conditions continued to be favourable for the emergence of life. ESA
Guest “what a cool field trip this would be!” by David Middleton
An ancient river on Mars may have flowed for 100,000 years SPACE 5 May 2020
By Donna Lu We know from images of Mars’s surface that the planet once had plenty of flowing water, but now we’ve found the first evidence of a river that was there for more than 100,000 years. Francesco Salese at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and his colleagues discovered a high rocky cliff in the north-western rim of Mars’s Hellas basin that seems to have been formed gradually by the flow of an ancient river. As rivers moves, they deposit sediment that builds up in layers. The rocky outcrop is 200 metres high – about twice the height of the White Cliffs of Dover – and 1.5 kilometres wide. The sedimentary rocks of the cliff are an estimated 3.7 billion years old. For something of this size to form, it would have required a river that was active for at least 100,000 Earth years. […] “To form these 200-metre-thick deposits we needed conditions that would have required an environment capable of maintaining significant volumes of liquid water,” says Salese. That means the water would have flowed year round, which suggests that Mars once had a water cycle driven by precipitation, similar to that of Earth. […] Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242630-an-ancient-river-on-mars-may-have-flowed-for-100000-years/#ixzz6LgSTnSPT
The full text of the paper, Salese et al., 2020, is available and literally “rocks!” (Whenever anyone says “literally,” they almost always mean figuratively.)
This image is from the New Scientist article:
“This Martian cliff may have been cut by hundreds of thousands of years of water flowing over it
Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University”
Read more: https://ift.tt/35DJjlr
This appears to be an erosional exposure of a sedimentary rock sequence, most likely of fluvial origin, covered by subsequent lava flows.
In this study, we use high-resolution imaging science experiment (HiRISE) image (25 cm/pixel) and topographic (1 m/pixel) data to describe the sedimentary-stratigraphic architecture of a far-larger, 1500-m-wide, 190-m-thick sedimentary succession. The recently identified Izola outcrop is located in the northwestern rim of the Hellas basin (Fig. 1a), a ~2000 km diameter impact structure containing a variety of 3.7 Ga Noachian Fe/Mg phyllosilicate-rich sedimentary intercrater plains, overlain by Hesperian-aged (~3.3 Ga) lava flows19. These intercrater plains offer erosional windows which expose stratigraphic sections with well-preserved channel forms, and which must be older than the ~3.7 Ga overlying plains19. The channel forms and associated sedimentary packages are interpreted as the product of an actively depositing fluvial system, with the final sedimentary architecture suggesting that these Noachian-aged rivers were not typified by high-energy episodic floods, but rather perennial or semi-perennial fluvial flow. The scale and completeness of the sedimentary succession offers a so far unique opportunity to assess the larger scale morphology of an evolving Noachian-aged fluvial system. Salese et al., 2020
The detail of the sedimentary architecture is stunning.
“a Close up of white box indicated in Fig. 2b. b Architectural interpretation of a displaying a number of channels (blue lines). Some examples preserve former channel margins, strong evidence for original channel lateral migration. Channelised packages have associated inclined accretion surfaces (magenta lines), with all packages topped and floored by more extensive fifth-order surfaces (red lines). Fifth-order surfaces possibly archive avulsion events. A previous channel margin (1 + 3) laterally coalesces with the final channel margin (2 + 4) indicating that the original active channel migrated laterally. A nested channel-cut (5) is present within a larger channelised package. c Close up of white box indicated in Fig. 2b. d Examples of inclined accretion surfaces with distinct foreset and bottomset elements (topsets truncated by overlying strata). Downlapping of internal, third-order surfaces suggest multiple accretion phases. Note that line drawings are not attempted in areas where exposure is poor. A third-order surface (7) downlaps the bottomset of an underlying fourth-order surface (6) indicating bar migration. A subsequent fourth-order surface (8) truncates the previous fourth-order surface (6) indicating multiple phases of bar-building activity.” Salese et al., 2020
Hopefully the Mars Perseverance Rover will launch on schedule, this summer. It will explore Jezero crater, where evidence of both clay mineralogy (phyllosilicates) and lacustrine carbonates have been detected. Perseverance will cache rock and regolith samples for future recovery.
Featured Image
Colorful Sediments near Hellas Basin
NASA/JPL
Reference
Salese, F., McMahon, W.J., Balme, M.R. et al. Sustained fluvial deposition recorded in Mars’ Noachian stratigraphic record. Nat Commun 11, 2067 (2020). https://ift.tt/2A4UWGh


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--Renewables Deliver Grid Chaos As COVID-19 Lockdown Slashes Power Demand

Across the globe , all manner of businesses have been forced to shut their doors and their owners and employees @ @ @ @ @ lockdown at home , devouring Netflix and junkfood delivered by Uber-eats .
The COVID-19 responses @ @ @ @ @ by country , but the wholesale reduction in air-travel , transport , traffic , the @ @ @ @ @

Across the globe, all manner of businesses have been forced to shut their doors and their owners and employees now find themselves in forced lockdown at home, devouring Netflix and junkfood delivered by Uber-eats. The COVID-19 responses might vary in severity country by country, but the wholesale reduction in air-travel, transport, traffic, the movement of […]
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May 7, 2020 at 02:33AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--BLACKOUT RISK AS RENEWABLES THREATEN TO DESTABILISE THE NTIONAL GRID

National Grid asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to prevent the grid @ @ @ @ @ May 8 bank holiday , when demand is expected to be especially low .
In @ @ @ @ @ , it warned of “ a significant risk of disruption to security of supply ” @ @ @ @ @ ” powers to order plant disconnections were not granted .
National Grid has to keep @ @ @ @ @ ensure stable voltage and frequency on the network .
When there is an imbalance the @ @ @ @ @ leading to blackouts such as that on August 9 last year when a million homes @ @ @ @ @ story ( £ )

National Grid asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to prevent the grid from being swamped on the May 8 bank holiday, when demand is expected to be especially low.
In its urgent request to Ofgem, it warned of “a significant risk of disruption to security of supply” if the “last resort” powers to order plant disconnections were not granted.
National Grid has to keep supply and demand balanced to ensure stable voltage and frequency on the network. When there is an imbalance the network can become unstable, leading to blackouts such as that on August 9 last year when a million homes were cut off.
Full story (£)


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--A Malthusian Confronts Renewables (review of Planet of the Humans)

Would you like to see a documentary chronicling “ what isn ’ t so ” ?
Check out the multi-million-view U-Tube sensation , Planet of the Humans by “ equal opportunity offender ” Michael Moore ( with producer Jeff Gibbs ) .
In short , the anti-mineral-energy Big Green has been hoisted by its own petard .
The film uses landscapes of post apocalyptic scope , and piercing personal interviews ; stabbing but yet strangely subtle exposes of renewable-energy fraudsters ; and a series of questions to create “ awareness.
” ( Some of the interviewees are Green icons : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Deal fame , Sir Richard Branson , to name a few . )
It is an ambitious movie crafted by Jeff Gibbs , writer and director ; Michael Moore , producer , with brilliant interviews ; and coproducer Ozzie Zehner , of “ Green Illusions , ” fame .
It is Ozzie who informs us that solar panels are made of quartz and coal .
And that not only the production process but quick decay plus the destruction to desert life makes solar panels a questionable proposition for real environmentalists .
Behind-the-curtain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open disclosure on green mythologies , incongruities , along with just dead wrong approaches to “ fixing ” and enhancing energy systems–is bravely done .
There is a great deal of exposing , “ what isn ’ t so.
” ) The director and producer also deftly expose the financial web of many green causes and their promoters .
( We regret the absence of exposure of the wind turbine debacle , but perhaps that will be in Part Two . )
Planet of the Humans could not cover the entire scope of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its hour and forty minutes .
Many of us versed in the subjects have quietly discussed what was missed in this film : images and commentary on birds and insects being fried mid-air above solar arrays ( Ivanpah ) , thousands , or millions , tens of millions , bird , bats and insects , sliced , exploded lungs , by industrial wind .
This was a missed opportunity to portray the devastated landscapes , habitats , including ocean creatures subjected to noise and infra-sound beyond sustainable life .
Some are experts in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promises are here , Wayne Lusvardi , and here , Mark Krebs and Tom Tanton , who would be worthy subjects for a Planet of the Humans II .
But let ’ s talk about the film as it is : a formidable visual portrayal of the shams of renewables , promoters in full verbal gear , some Renewables Leaders , stupefied by simple questions about biofuels , shots of protestors , dialogues with people who contemplate and research and study where the human race is going .
It is fascinating .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tone from time to time , adds depth to the seriously deep contemplation .
It is , in a way , a combination of Super Size Me ( filmmaker Morgan Spurlock ’ s spoof on cultural excess ) meets tragic ironic cultural commentary of Bowling for Columbine , meets take your pick of “ doom pics.
” However you wrap it in movie context , it is for my taste , a very self-aware narrative , allowing the photography to create most of the story .
( One could add two more full @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and we would welcome that . )
Planet exposes the myths of Green Energy , targeting the ironies of promoters who bravely assert their program is 100 % Green Energy , or is “ sustainable , ” or green , and effectively displacing carbon dioxide emissions .
The docufilm exposes little known details that many do not know : electric cars are indeed powered by coal .
It shares with the viewer ironies of famous filmmaker and former US Vice President Al Gore ’ s green profit motives as leader of the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people have been as vocal about the urgency of global warming and the need to reinvent the way the world produces and consumes energy.
” ) A choice memorable scene depicts famous a brief interview with a noticeably deadpan Robert F Kennedy Jr , whose expression is puzzled and blank as the movie ’ s narrator , Jeff Gibbs , asks him innocently in a flat tone : are you for or against biofuels ?
He clearly does not know .
By this time , the viewer has seen the razed forests , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up systems , ( coal and gas ) and heard a plaintive female interviewee resident near Lake Superior woefully discussing the incinerator in her community that burns just about anything , including nearby forests , while spewing black toxic dust into the once clear air .
The camera equally lingers on her tearful face , as sincere a person as exists , as on Robert F Kennedy Jr ’ s blank stare .
What is clear is that the interviewees do not appear to have much knowledge about energy , and are in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leader of the Green Party in Canada , Elizabeth May .
Her response to the Michael Moore/Jeff Gibbs movie , is to call it dreadful and unhelpful : “ The grid is for storage .
That is our premise in Mission : Possible .
Feed into the grid when renewables produce above local demand ; draw from the grid when renewables drop.
” One can easily see the lack of knowledge by Ms. May and her addition to her already abundant confusion .
The movie is about other things : • Solar and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They are intermittent and always need to be backed up with non-renewable sources .
In the case of solar and wind factories , the process of building , maintaining , and rapid replacement is overwhelmingly irresponsible , destructive , and short sighted .
• Much time is allotted to portraying the damage , harm and profit taking of biofuels .
• Electric cars are also fossil-fuel heavy .
They are charged via the conventional grid .
Basically , power-up or plug in stations are fed from local utilities , which are of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Green Energy movement is laden with profit takers , insincere , unknowledgeable , and apparently rapacious in consumption of materials , landscapes , wildlife .
The movie is also about providing visual confirmation of the destruction : this is extremely powerful footage , and I suspect many of us have not seen some of those images .
The panorama of tree removal sequentially showing a long shot of stripping an entire forested area , bulldozed , razed , while watching a mother and child bonobo climb higher on a stripped tree , eventually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ muddy bank of the river , is as heart wrenching a scene as could be offered on the theme of environmental carnage .
Some are wondering where is the equal time given to birds and bats which are demolished in the tens of millions per year , insect life as well , by wind turbines .
Where is the equal time to other wildlife displacement and unimaginable , in cases terminal , destruction ?
We suspect the intense power of the last scenes with the near death bonobos is sufficient to suggest the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flying creatures , and habitat , and that this is the tip of the iceberg .
Other running themes troubling to many , include the director ’ s acceptance of inevitable apocalyptic climate change , which to many is the “ charging station ” for harmful and useless wind and solar and biomass .
Also , the Malthusian solution drifts in and out , that there are simply too many people on the planet .
That food sources can not keep up with population expansion .
Highly controversial , Malthusian theory is largely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traverses India , China , and the US , to name a few .
Still , going forward begins with creating awareness .
For a film producer and director who must have spent thousands of hours scouring international film archives and directing fresh film , Planet of the Humans is an achievement .
But this beginning deserves a sequel and , finally , a deep dive into Malthusianism and its latest iteration , climate alarmism .
You can not fail but be impressed with the visual scope of the portrayal of production of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international transportation , lame or nonexistent materials control and disposal of toxic waste .
Much of it is here .
In technicolor .
At once it is shocking ; terrifyingly busy images of barges carrying materials , barren landscapes , time lapse destroyed forests , toxic rivers , and hauntingly unforgettable plumes of blackened air space , more riveting in light of the “ greenness ” they represent .
Our view , and that of colleagues very versed in the collateral harm of “ renewables , ” is that the images in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much more massive destruction .
Filmmaker Michael Moore calls this movie , the “ most urgent film we have shown in the 15-year history of our film festival.
” Environmentalist Michael Donnelly described the film last summer as critically important and warned : Others call for the movie ’ s removal based on climate bias , or other perceived dangers , referring to it as a gift to Big Oil .
Already at six million views , we hope millions more will view the film during the few remaining weeks it is hosted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Course 101 in Renewables .
Ozzie Zehner in a talk some hears ago ( 2012 ) , asks : “ Ten years from now , will we think of renewable energy as clean and green ?
” The question , rhetorical , has even deadlier consequences now .
“ Everywhere I encountered green energy , it wasn ’ t what it seemed , ” Gibbs says at one point .
“ It was enough to make my head explode.
” A delusion-shattering documentary on how the environmental and green energy movements have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jeff Gibbs , narrator at the beginning of the film , asks bystanders .
“ How you ever wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet ?
Maybe they are cute ; maybe they are clever , but lack a certain self-restraint .
What if they go way , way , way , way , way too far ?
How would they know when it is their time to go ?
” No amount of batteries are going to save us , warns director Jeff Gibbs ( lifelong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and “ Bowling for Columbine ” ) .
This urgent , must-see movie , a full-frontal assault on our sacred cows , is guaranteed to generate anger , debate , and , hopefully , a willingness to see our survival in a new way—before it ’ s too late .
Please see this list of other reviews by John Droz , as well as some of his own perspectives .
Excellent full length Michael Moore movie : Planet of the Humans Michael Moore Documentary Reveals Massive Ecological Impacts Of Renewables “ Planet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delivers Same Old Anti-Humanism Michael Moore stumbles upon the truth about so-called ‘ green ’ energy Moore Rolls Out Movie Destroying A Common Enviro Left Narrative Moore-backed Doc Tackles ‘ False Promises ’ of Green Energy Michael Moore Is Now the Green New Deal ’ s Worst Enemy Left-Wing Activists Are Trying to Cancel Michael Moore Professor Can ’ t Muzzle Moore Movie ; Must Pay Defendants ’ Legal Fees Alex Epstein : The five things Planet of the Humans gets ( mostly ) right Short video : Michael Moore Goes Nuclear On @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on renewable energy Guardian : Contrarian eco-doc from the Michael Moore stable Moore Movie Acknowledges Green Energy Is Tommyrot Green Brownshirts Strike at Michael Moore

“Anti-mineral-energy Big Green has been hoisted by its own petard.” “Solar and wind cannot replace fossil fuels. They are intermittent and always need to be backed up with non-renewable sources. In the case of solar and wind factories, the process of building, maintaining, and rapid replacement is overwhelmingly irresponsible, destructive, and short sighted.”
Ronald Reagan said back in 1964:
… anytime you and I question the schemes of the do-gooders, we’re denounced as being against their humanitarian goals. They say we’re always “against” things — we’re never “for” anything. Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.”
Would you like to see a documentary chronicling “what isn’t so”? Check out the multi-million-view U-Tube sensation, Planet of the Humans by “equal opportunity offender” Michael Moore (with producer Jeff Gibbs).
In short, the anti-mineral-energy Big Green has been hoisted by its own petard.
The film uses landscapes of post apocalyptic scope, and piercing personal interviews; stabbing but yet strangely subtle exposes of renewable-energy fraudsters; and a series of questions to create “awareness.” (Some of the interviewees are Green icons: Al Gore, Bill McKibbon of Green New Deal fame, Sir Richard Branson, to name a few.) It is an ambitious movie crafted by Jeff Gibbs, writer and director; Michael Moore, producer, with brilliant interviews; and coproducer Ozzie Zehner, of “Green Illusions,” fame.
It is Ozzie who informs us that solar panels are made of quartz and coal. And that not only the production process but quick decay plus the destruction to desert life makes solar panels a questionable proposition for real environmentalists. Behind-the-curtain now has a spotlight.
The movie–providing open disclosure on green mythologies, incongruities, along with just dead wrong approaches to “fixing” and enhancing energy systems–is bravely done. There is a great deal of exposing, “what isn’t so.”) The director and producer also deftly expose the financial web of many green causes and their promoters. (We regret the absence of exposure of the wind turbine debacle, but perhaps that will be in Part Two.)
Planet of the Humans could not cover the entire scope of the harm of “renewables” in its hour and forty minutes. Many of us versed in the subjects have quietly discussed what was missed in this film: images and commentary on birds and insects being fried mid-air above solar arrays (Ivanpah), thousands, or millions, tens of millions, bird, bats and insects, sliced, exploded lungs, by industrial wind.
This was a missed opportunity to portray the devastated landscapes, habitats, including ocean creatures subjected to noise and infra-sound beyond sustainable life. Some are experts in the technical and economic failures of green promises are here, Wayne Lusvardi, and here, Mark Krebs and Tom Tanton, who would be worthy subjects for a Planet of the Humans II.
But let’s talk about the film as it is: a formidable visual portrayal of the shams of renewables, promoters in full verbal gear, some Renewables Leaders, stupefied by simple questions about biofuels, shots of protestors, dialogues with people who contemplate and research and study where the human race is going.
It is fascinating. The ironies abound, and the slightly wry tone from time to time, adds depth to the seriously deep contemplation. It is, in a way, a combination of Super Size Me (filmmaker Morgan Spurlock’s spoof on cultural excess) meets tragic ironic cultural commentary of Bowling for Columbine, meets take your pick of “doom pics.”
However you wrap it in movie context, it is for my taste, a very self-aware narrative, allowing the photography to create most of the story. (One could add two more full feature films to cover more details, and we would welcome that.)
The Narrative Unmasked
Planet exposes the myths of Green Energy, targeting the ironies of promoters who bravely assert their program is 100% Green Energy, or is “sustainable,” or green, and effectively displacing carbon dioxide emissions.
The docufilm exposes little known details that many do not know: electric cars are indeed powered by coal. It shares with the viewer ironies of famous filmmaker and former US Vice President Al Gore’s green profit motives as leader of the global green energy revolution. (“Few people have been as vocal about the urgency of global warming and the need to reinvent the way the world produces and consumes energy.”)
A choice memorable scene depicts famous a brief interview with a noticeably deadpan Robert F Kennedy Jr, whose expression is puzzled and blank as the movie’s narrator, Jeff Gibbs, asks him innocently in a flat tone: are you for or against biofuels? He clearly does not know.
By this time, the viewer has seen the razed forests, heard the commentary on the necessary back up systems, (coal and gas) and heard a plaintive female interviewee resident near Lake Superior woefully discussing the incinerator in her community that burns just about anything, including nearby forests, while spewing black toxic dust into the once clear air. The camera equally lingers on her tearful face, as sincere a person as exists, as on Robert F Kennedy Jr’s blank stare.
What is clear is that the interviewees do not appear to have much knowledge about energy, and are in a way as misinformed as the former Leader of the Green Party in Canada, Elizabeth May. Her response to the Michael Moore/Jeff Gibbs movie, is to call it dreadful and unhelpful: “The grid is for storage. That is our premise in Mission: Possible. Feed into the grid when renewables produce above local demand; draw from the grid when renewables drop.” One can easily see the lack of knowledge by Ms. May and her addition to her already abundant confusion.
The movie is about other things:
Solar and wind cannot replace fossil fuels. They are intermittent and always need to be backed up with non-renewable sources. In the case of solar and wind factories, the process of building, maintaining, and rapid replacement is overwhelmingly irresponsible, destructive, and short sighted.
Much time is allotted to portraying the damage, harm and profit taking of biofuels.
Electric cars are also fossil-fuel heavy. They are charged via the conventional grid. Basically, power-up or plug in stations are fed from local utilities, which are of course gas and coal heavy.
The Green Energy movement is laden with profit takers, insincere, unknowledgeable, and apparently rapacious in consumption of materials, landscapes, wildlife.
The movie is also about providing visual confirmation of the destruction: this is extremely powerful footage, and I suspect many of us have not seen some of those images.
The panorama of tree removal sequentially showing a long shot of stripping an entire forested area, bulldozed, razed, while watching a mother and child bonobo climb higher on a stripped tree, eventually scrambling, clearly exhausted, in the muddy bank of the river, is as heart wrenching a scene as could be offered on the theme of environmental carnage.
Fodder for Planet II
Some are wondering where is the equal time given to birds and bats which are demolished in the tens of millions per year, insect life as well, by wind turbines.
Where is the equal time to other wildlife displacement and unimaginable, in cases terminal, destruction? We suspect the intense power of the last scenes with the near death bonobos is sufficient to suggest the ongoing and pervasive harm to animals and flying creatures, and habitat, and that this is the tip of the iceberg.
Other running themes troubling to many, include the director’s acceptance of inevitable apocalyptic climate change, which to many is the “charging station” for harmful and useless wind and solar and biomass.
Also, the Malthusian solution drifts in and out, that there are simply too many people on the planet. That food sources cannot keep up with population expansion. Highly controversial, Malthusian theory is largely disputed. It’s ugly history traverses India, China, and the US, to name a few.
Still, going forward begins with creating awareness. For a film producer and director who must have spent thousands of hours scouring international film archives and directing fresh film, Planet of the Humans is an achievement. But this beginning deserves a sequel and, finally, a deep dive into Malthusianism and its latest iteration, climate alarmism.
CONCLUSION
You cannot fail but be impressed with the visual scope of the portrayal of production of solar, mining, child labor, international transportation, lame or nonexistent materials control and disposal of toxic waste. Much of it is here. In technicolor.
At once it is shocking; terrifyingly busy images of barges carrying materials, barren landscapes, time lapse destroyed forests, toxic rivers, and hauntingly unforgettable plumes of blackened air space, more riveting in light of the “greenness” they represent.
Our view, and that of colleagues very versed in the collateral harm of “renewables,” is that the images in the movie are merely “representative” of much more massive destruction.
Appendix
Filmmaker Michael Moore calls this movie, the “most urgent film we have shown in the 15-year history of our film festival.” Environmentalist Michael Donnelly described the film last summer as critically important and warned:
Sure, ‘Planet,’ Jeff [Gibbs], Ozzie [Zehner] and Michael [Moore] will come under fierce fire from those who benefit from the current half (at best) measures. Already, many of the organizations and people – a huge multimillion dollar Climate Campaign industry … have panned it, without ever even seeing it.”
Others call for the movie’s removal based on climate bias, or other perceived dangers, referring to it as a gift to Big Oil. Already at six million views, we hope millions more will view the film during the few remaining weeks it is hosted on You Tube. Consider this a Course 101 in Renewables.
Ozzie Zehner in a talk some hears ago (2012), asks: “Ten years from now, will we think of renewable energy as clean and green?” The question, rhetorical, has even deadlier consequences now.
A FEW NOTABLES
Quote: Jeff Gibbs, narrator.
“Everywhere I encountered green energy, it wasn’t what it seemed,” Gibbs says at one point. “It was enough to make my head explode.”
Quote: Reviewers, Frederic and Maryann Brussat
A delusion-shattering documentary on how the environmental and green energy movements have been taken over by capitalists.
Quote: Jeff Gibbs, narrator at the beginning of the film, asks bystanders.
“How you ever wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet? Maybe they are cute; maybe they are clever, but lack a certain self-restraint. What if they go way, way, way, way, way too far? How would they know when it is their time to go?”
Quote from review:
No amount of batteries are going to save us, warns director Jeff Gibbs (lifelong environmentalist and co-producer of “Fahrenheit 9/11” and “Bowling for Columbine”). This urgent, must-see movie, a full-frontal assault on our sacred cows, is guaranteed to generate anger, debate, and, hopefully, a willingness to see our survival in a new way—before it’s too late.
Featuring: Al Gore, Bill McKibben, Richard Branson, Robert F Kennedy Jr., Michael Bloomberg, Van Jones, Vinod Khosla, Koch Brothers, Vandana Shiva, General Motors, 350.org, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sierra Club, the Union of Concerned Scientists, Nature Conservancy, Elon Musk, Tesla.
Please see this list of other reviews by John Droz, as well as some of his own perspectives.
Excellent full length Michael Moore movie: Planet of the Humans
Michael Moore Documentary Reveals Massive Ecological Impacts Of Renewables
“Planet Of The Humans” Skewers Renewables, Delivers Same Old Anti-Humanism
Michael Moore stumbles upon the truth about so-called ‘green’ energy
Moore Rolls Out Movie Destroying A Common Enviro Left Narrative
Moore-backed Doc Tackles ‘False Promises’ of Green Energy
Michael Moore Is Now the Green New Deal’s Worst Enemy
Left-Wing Activists Are Trying to Cancel Michael Moore
Professor Can’t Muzzle Moore Movie; Must Pay Defendants’ Legal Fees
Alex Epstein: The five things Planet of the Humans gets (mostly) right
Short video: Michael Moore Goes Nuclear On Green Energy
Michael Moore pulls the chain on renewable energy
Guardian: Contrarian eco-doc from the Michael Moore stable
Moore Movie Acknowledges Green Energy Is Tommyrot
Green Brownshirts Strike at Michael Moore


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--Using excess deaths to correct Chinese-virus mortality counts #coronavirus

The United Kingdom now has a higher death toll than any other European country , and the second-highest in the world after the United States .
Yesterday ’ s officially declared count was 29,427 ( 433 per million population ) , just above Italy ’ s 29,315 ( 485 per million ) .
However , Fig .
1 , from the Cabinet Office daily briefing , shows that the seven-day rolling mean recorded daily deaths has been falling since April 14 , about three weeks after the Prime Minister announced the British lockdown : By contrast , the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or 218 per million population .
However , such international league-table comparisons are problematic , for several reasons .
The start-dates for the infection vary from country to country .
Worse , the World Health Organization has failed to implement an agreed reporting standard for deaths .
Therefore , different countries count the deaths in widely differing ways .
China , for instance , has been under-reporting both cases and deaths from the outset , and has recently ceased to report deaths altogether , even though outbreaks are known to be occurring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For some weeks , the United Kingdom did not report deaths that occurred outside hospitals .
This turned out to be a grave mistake , for it transpired that large numbers were dying in care homes , a problem that several countries have faced .
Fig .
2 shows reported deaths by sector .
It is about ten days behind the times , since the recording of deaths by the Office for National Statistics is a slower but more complete process than HM Government ’ s daily totals .
Now that the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and in all other settings as well as in hospitals , it is closer to the true numbers than Italy , for instance , where a recent audit suggested that fewer than half of all Chinese-virus deaths were being reported .
However , even the more complete figures provided by the Office for National Statistics appear to be a significant undercount .
For instance , the ONS weekly statistical report for the week ending April 24 shows that 8237 Chinese-virus deaths occurred .
However , the excess mortality compared with the same week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11,539 , suggesting that even HM Government ’ s revised death counts are underestimating the true position by 40 % .
If so , the true cumulative death toll may well exceed 41,000 .
In the long run , and in the absence of a competent , internationally-standardized reporting protocol , it is the excess deaths that will be the best guide to the true fatality rate .
That the statistics should have been so inadequately kept as to allow a grave discrepancy between Chinese-virus deaths and excess mortality even in Western countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the world the under-reporting is still more severe .
In Brazil , for instance , where the President decided that no lockdown was needed despite the high population densities in the major cities , the hospital system has been overwhelmed , mass graves are being dug and the number of deaths reported is a severe understatement of the true position .
The President also fired his health minister , who had criticized him for not following social distancing guidelines .
The Cabinet Office briefing on daily new cases ( Fig .
3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about two weeks after the Prime Minister ’ s announcement of the lockdown .
The fact that the peaks in new cases and in deaths occurred two weeks and three weeks respectively after the lockdown was announced is an indication that the measures have had some effect .
Fig .
3 .
UK daily new Chinese-virus cases , March 21 to May 5 , 2020 .
Of the countries we have been monitoring , only Canada has a daily growth-rate in active cases ( Fig .
4 ) : all the others now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to May 5 , 2020 .
As for cumulative deaths , Canada is again the high-end outlier , with a daily compound growth rate exceeding 5 % .
All others , including the U.S.A. , are at or below 3 % .
However , there are signs that the slowing of the growth rates is itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an end , but with caution .
Fig .
5 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 15 to May 5 , 2020 .
Ø High-resolution images of Figs .
1-5 are here .
Today ’ s column will be the last in this series .
I hope that readers will have found it useful to see , day by day , the decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the opportunity to phase out their lockdowns .

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The United Kingdom now has a higher death toll than any other European country, and the second-highest in the world after the United States. Yesterday’s officially declared count was 29,427 (433 per million population), just above Italy’s 29,315 (485 per million).
However, Fig. 1, from the Cabinet Office daily briefing, shows that the seven-day rolling mean recorded daily deaths has been falling since April 14, about three weeks after the Prime Minister announced the British lockdown:
Fig. 1. UK recorded daily Chinese-virus deaths, March 14 to May 5, 2020 (COBR)
By contrast, the United States had reported 72,271 total deaths to yesterday, or 218 per million population.
However, such international league-table comparisons are problematic, for several reasons. The start-dates for the infection vary from country to country. Worse, the World Health Organization has failed to implement an agreed reporting standard for deaths. Therefore, different countries count the deaths in widely differing ways.
China, for instance, has been under-reporting both cases and deaths from the outset, and has recently ceased to report deaths altogether, even though outbreaks are known to be occurring in various provinces, notably Heiliongjiang.
For some weeks, the United Kingdom did not report deaths that occurred outside hospitals. This turned out to be a grave mistake, for it transpired that large numbers were dying in care homes, a problem that several countries have faced. Fig. 2 shows reported deaths by sector. It is about ten days behind the times, since the recording of deaths by the Office for National Statistics is a slower but more complete process than HM Government’s daily totals.
Now that the United Kingdom does report deaths in care homes and in all other settings as well as in hospitals, it is closer to the true numbers than Italy, for instance, where a recent audit suggested that fewer than half of all Chinese-virus deaths were being reported.
Fig. 2. UK recorded weekly Chinese-virus deaths by sector
However, even the more complete figures provided by the Office for National Statistics appear to be a significant undercount. For instance, the ONS weekly statistical report for the week ending April 24 shows that 8237 Chinese-virus deaths occurred. However, the excess mortality compared with the same week averaged over the previous five years was 11,539, suggesting that even HM Government’s revised death counts are underestimating the true position by 40%. If so, the true cumulative death toll may well exceed 41,000.
In the long run, and in the absence of a competent, internationally-standardized reporting protocol, it is the excess deaths that will be the best guide to the true fatality rate.
That the statistics should have been so inadequately kept as to allow a grave discrepancy between Chinese-virus deaths and excess mortality even in Western countries is bad enough. However, elsewhere in the world the under-reporting is still more severe.
In Brazil, for instance, where the President decided that no lockdown was needed despite the high population densities in the major cities, the hospital system has been overwhelmed, mass graves are being dug and the number of deaths reported is a severe understatement of the true position. The President also fired his health minister, who had criticized him for not following social distancing guidelines.
The Cabinet Office briefing on daily new cases (Fig. 3) shows that a peak was reached about two weeks after the Prime Minister’s announcement of the lockdown. The fact that the peaks in new cases and in deaths occurred two weeks and three weeks respectively after the lockdown was announced is an indication that the measures have had some effect.
Fig. 3. UK daily new Chinese-virus cases, March 21 to May 5, 2020.
Of the countries we have been monitoring, only Canada has a daily growth-rate in active cases (Fig. 4): all the others now show declines.
Fig. 4. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to May 5, 2020.
As for cumulative deaths, Canada is again the high-end outlier, with a daily compound growth rate exceeding 5%. All others, including the U.S.A., are at or below 3%. However, there are signs that the slowing of the growth rates is itself slowing. Lockdowns can now be brought to an end, but with caution.
Fig. 5. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 15 to May 5, 2020.
Ø High-resolution images of Figs. 1-5 are here.
Today’s column will be the last in this series. I hope that readers will have found it useful to see, day by day, the decline in growth rates that provides governments with the opportunity to phase out their lockdowns.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-07--EU & UK Clash As Climate Conditions Threaten Post-Brexit Trade Deal

EU push to incorporate Paris agreement adds to tension over post-Brexit relationship The UK is resisting EU moves to incorporate @ @ @ @ @ change commitments in a future trade deal , adding to mounting disagreements on both sides @ @ @ @ @ post-Brexit relationship .
EU officials said the most recent negotiating round with the UK had @ @ @ @ @ co-operation in the fight against climate change .
The split is emblematic of broader difficulties @ @ @ @ @ two rounds of future relationship talks , with negotiators at odds on the conditions that @ @ @ @ @ far-reaching trade deal .
While the EU wants to nail down guarantees about shared green @ @ @ @ @ it should not have to make such legal commitments in exchange for preferential access to @ @ @ @ @ post EU & UK Clash As Climate Conditions Threaten Post-Brexit Trade Deal appeared first on @ @ @ @ @ ( GWPF ) .

EU push to incorporate Paris agreement adds to tension over post-Brexit relationship
The UK is resisting EU moves to incorporate guarantees on respecting international climate change commitments in a future trade deal, adding to mounting disagreements on both sides over how to forge their post-Brexit relationship.
EU officials said the most recent negotiating round with the UK had revealed a clear rift over co-operation in the fight against climate change.
The split is emblematic of broader difficulties both sides have identified after two rounds of future relationship talks, with negotiators at odds on the conditions that should be attached to a far-reaching trade deal.
While the EU wants to nail down guarantees about shared green ambitions, Britain argues that it should not have to make such legal commitments in exchange for preferential access to the European market.
The post EU & UK Clash As Climate Conditions Threaten Post-Brexit Trade Deal appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 6, 2020 at 11:49PM