iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--CMIP6 adds more value in simulating extreme temperatures in China

Against the background of global warming , more intense and frequent heat waves have brought huge impacts on humanity .
As such , the characteristics of extreme temperature changes in the future have become a key concern of the climate change community .
Climate models have provided an avenue for studying the possible changes in extreme temperatures in the future ; and in this respect , to ease of comparison across models from different modelling groups worldwide , the World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP ) established the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP ) , which is devoted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purposes .
However , there are still large uncertainties in the simulation results of different models .
Particularly , when simulating temperature extremes in China , what the differences are between the models of the previous CMIP phase ( CMIP5 ) and their more advanced versions in the current phase ( CMIP6 ) is an important question .
Towards addressing this , researchers from Beijing Normal University selected 27 models from CMIP6 and CMIP5 , respectively , and calculated eight extreme temperature indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different models in terms of their temporal and spatial distributions of extreme temperature were compared , and the results have recently been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters .
According to this study , the CMIP6 models reproduce the spatial distributions of the annual maxima of the daily maximum temperature , annual minima of the daily minimum temperature , and frost days , better than CMIP5 .
However , the CMIP6 models still possess low skill in capturing warm days and cold nights , and in particular produce obvious cold biases or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Furthermore , different versions of models from the same model organization were compared , and the advanced CMIP6 models were found to show no significant differences from their CMIP5 counterparts for some models .
Overall , compared to CMIP5 models , CMIP6 offers improved ways of simulating extreme temperatures in China .
The simulation capabilities of some individual models in CMIP6 are obviously better than those of most other models .
We can therefore trust these CMIP6 models to drive regional models to perform downscaling studies and project future extreme temperature changes .

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Research News
IMAGE: SUNSET AT BEIHAI PARK view more CREDIT: KEXIN CHEN
Against the background of global warming, more intense and frequent heat waves have brought huge impacts on humanity. As such, the characteristics of extreme temperature changes in the future have become a key concern of the climate change community. Climate models have provided an avenue for studying the possible changes in extreme temperatures in the future; and in this respect, to ease of comparison across models from different modelling groups worldwide, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) established the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which is devoted to providing standardized climate simulation outputs for intercomparison purposes. However, there are still large uncertainties in the simulation results of different models. Particularly, when simulating temperature extremes in China, what the differences are between the models of the previous CMIP phase (CMIP5) and their more advanced versions in the current phase (CMIP6) is an important question.
Towards addressing this, researchers from Beijing Normal University selected 27 models from CMIP6 and CMIP5, respectively, and calculated eight extreme temperature indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The simulation performances of different models in terms of their temporal and spatial distributions of extreme temperature were compared, and the results have recently been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.
According to this study, the CMIP6 models reproduce the spatial distributions of the annual maxima of the daily maximum temperature, annual minima of the daily minimum temperature, and frost days, better than CMIP5. However, the CMIP6 models still possess low skill in capturing warm days and cold nights, and in particular produce obvious cold biases or warm biases over the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, different versions of models from the same model organization were compared, and the advanced CMIP6 models were found to show no significant differences from their CMIP5 counterparts for some models.
Overall, compared to CMIP5 models, CMIP6 offers improved ways of simulating extreme temperatures in China. The simulation capabilities of some individual models in CMIP6 are obviously better than those of most other models. We can therefore trust these CMIP6 models to drive regional models to perform downscaling studies and project future extreme temperature changes.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--How Superficial Policies Destroy Character

The 2020 campaign saw Biden label Trump voters as “ chumps ” , adding this trash talk to Clinton ’ s 2016 calling them “ deplorables.
” This article digs into how subversive and destructive is the progressive drive to have government policies deliver outcomes regardless of individual effort and talent .
James B. Meigs explains in his article at City Journal The Chump Effect .
Excerpts in italics with my bolds .
Progressive policies penalize those who play by the rules and shower benefits on those who don ’ t .
Last January , a small but telling exchange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ event in Grimes , Iowa .
At the time , Warren was attracting support from the Democratic Party ’ s left flank , with her bulging portfolio of progressive proposals .
“ Warren Has a Plan for That ” read her campaign T-shirts .
The biggest buzz surrounded her $ 1.25 trillion plan to pay off student-loan debt for most Americans .
A man approached Warren with a question .
“ My daughter is getting out of school .
I ’ ve saved all my money [ so that ] she doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I going to get my money back ?
” “ So you ’ re going to pay for people who didn ’ t save any money , and those of us who did the right thing get screwed ?
” A video of the exchange went viral .
It summed up the frustration many feel over the way progressive policies so often benefit select groups , while subtly undermining others .
Saving money to send your children to college used to be considered a hallmark of middle-class responsibility .
By subsidizing people who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s policy would penalize those who took that responsibility seriously .
“ You ’ re laughing at me , ” the man said , when Warren seemed to wave off his concerns .
“ That ’ s exactly what you ’ re doing .
We did the right thing and we get screwed.
” That father was expressing an emotion growing more common these days : he felt like a chump .
Feeling like a chump doesn ’ t just mean being upset that your taxes are rising or annoyed that you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s more visceral than that .
People feel like chumps when they believe that they ’ ve played a game by the rules , only to discover that the game is rigged .
Not only are they losing , they realize , but their good sportsmanship is being exploited .
The players flouting the rules are the ones who get the trophy .
Like that Iowa dad , the chumps of modern America feel that the life choices they ’ re most proud of—working hard , taking care of their families @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undervalued , but scorned .
Thousands of norms , rules , and traditions make civilized life possible .
Some , like paying taxes or not littering , are enshrined in law .
Others are informal .
Most of us take pride in adhering to basic standards of etiquette and fairness , to say nothing of following the law .
And we have a deep emotional investment in having the people around us follow these norms as well .
There ’ s a reason that we call selfish , disruptive , or criminal behavior @ @ @ @ @ @ @ everyone stopped paying their taxes , or started running red lights and shoplifting , our society would be on its way to collapse .
It ’ s bad enough when some random jerk makes you feel like a chump ; it ’ s much worse when government policies create entire classes of chumps .
Warren fizzled as a presidential candidate , but her activist positions remain very much in play , promoted by far-left Democrats and party leaders .
Many of these plans would penalize people who follow traditional norms and shower benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden ’ s platform includes many similar proposals , including a scaled-down college-debt plan .
And , across the country , progressive governors , mayors , and district attorneys are pushing local policies—including ultra-lenient treatment of lawbreakers—that turn responsible citizens into chumps , too .
The economic and ideological disruptions brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic and Black Lives Matter protests have only intensified this ongoing bifurcation of America .
Call it the Chump Effect .
Both types of Chump-Effect policies—those that unfairly distribute benefits and those that normalize transgressive behavior—are dismissive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Policies that selectively favor the needs , or tolerate the misdeeds , of certain groups often have the perverse corollary of undermining the norm followers .
When disruptive students remain in the classroom , it ’ s their attentive classmates who suffer .
If a big business games federal programs for an unfair advantage , smaller businesses and consumers pay the price .
What ’ s particularly galling about such policies isn ’ t just that they reward norm violators—it ’ s that they ’ re predicated on the assumption that everyone else @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s wishful thinking , of course .
Over time , policies that excuse lax behavior by the few will begin to influence the many , corroding the standards that keep a society healthy .

The 2020 campaign saw Biden label Trump voters as “chumps”, adding this trash talk to Clinton’s 2016 calling them “deplorables.” This article digs into how subversive and destructive is the progressive drive to have government policies deliver outcomes regardless of individual effort and talent. James B. Meigs explains in his article at City Journal The Chump Effect. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.
Progressive policies penalize those who play by the rules and shower benefits on those who don’t.
Last January, a small but telling exchange took place at an Elizabeth Warren campaign event in Grimes, Iowa. At the time, Warren was attracting support from the Democratic Party’s left flank, with her bulging portfolio of progressive proposals. “Warren Has a Plan for That” read her campaign T-shirts. The biggest buzz surrounded her $1.25 trillion plan to pay off student-loan debt for most Americans.
A man approached Warren with a question. “My daughter is getting out of school. I’ve saved all my money [so that] she doesn’t have any student loans. Am I going to get my money back?”
“Of course not,” Warren replied.
“So you’re going to pay for people who didn’t save any money, and those of us who did the right thing get screwed?”
A video of the exchange went viral. It summed up the frustration many feel over the way progressive policies so often benefit select groups, while subtly undermining others. Saving money to send your children to college used to be considered a hallmark of middle-class responsibility. By subsidizing people who run up large debts, Warren’s policy would penalize those who took that responsibility seriously. “You’re laughing at me,” the man said, when Warren seemed to wave off his concerns. “That’s exactly what you’re doing. We did the right thing and we get screwed.”
That father was expressing an emotion growing more common these days: he felt like a chump. Feeling like a chump doesn’t just mean being upset that your taxes are rising or annoyed that you’re missing out on some windfall. It’s more visceral than that. People feel like chumps when they believe that they’ve played a game by the rules, only to discover that the game is rigged. Not only are they losing, they realize, but their good sportsmanship is being exploited. The players flouting the rules are the ones who get the trophy.
Like that Iowa dad, the chumps of modern America feel that the life choices they’re most proud of—working hard, taking care of their families, being good citizens—aren’t just undervalued, but scorned.
Thousands of norms, rules, and traditions make civilized life possible. Some, like paying taxes or not littering, are enshrined in law. Others are informal. Most of us take pride in adhering to basic standards of etiquette and fairness, to say nothing of following the law. And we have a deep emotional investment in having the people around us follow these norms as well. There’s a reason that we call selfish, disruptive, or criminal behavior “antisocial.” We know that if everyone stopped paying their taxes, or started running red lights and shoplifting, our society would be on its way to collapse.
It’s bad enough when some random jerk makes you feel like a chump; it’s much worse when government policies create entire classes of chumps. Warren fizzled as a presidential candidate, but her activist positions remain very much in play, promoted by far-left Democrats and party leaders. Many of these plans would penalize people who follow traditional norms and shower benefits on those who don’t. Joe Biden’s platform includes many similar proposals, including a scaled-down college-debt plan. And, across the country, progressive governors, mayors, and district attorneys are pushing local policies—including ultra-lenient treatment of lawbreakers—that turn responsible citizens into chumps, too. The economic and ideological disruptions brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic and Black Lives Matter protests have only intensified this ongoing bifurcation of America. Call it the Chump Effect.
Both types of Chump-Effect policies—those that unfairly distribute benefits and those that normalize transgressive behavior—are dismissive of what many call bourgeois norms. Policies that selectively favor the needs, or tolerate the misdeeds, of certain groups often have the perverse corollary of undermining the norm followers. When disruptive students remain in the classroom, it’s their attentive classmates who suffer. If a big business games federal programs for an unfair advantage, smaller businesses and consumers pay the price. What’s particularly galling about such policies isn’t just that they reward norm violators—it’s that they’re predicated on the assumption that everyone else will continue adhering to the norms. That’s wishful thinking, of course. Over time, policies that excuse lax behavior by the few will begin to influence the many, corroding the standards that keep a society healthy.
via Science Matters
https://ift.tt/3pHlCT5
November 16, 2020 at 12:14PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--Space-based solar power stations research launched by UK Space Agency and government

Does this by any chance suggest that wind and solar power may not quite be the wondrous energy future our leaders keep trying to hoodwink the public with ?
No word on costs so far .
– – – It is thought that energy could be beamed anywhere on the planet , save for the poles , according to the UK Space Agency .
From an idea first mooted in 1941 , the UK has launched research into whether solar power in space could be beamed back to Earth as a sustainable energy source , reports Sky News .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ writer Isaac Asimov ; now the UK Space Agency and UK government are aiming to make the idea a reality .
Space-based solar power ( SBSP ) stations would capture the solar energy emitted by the sun that never makes it to Earth , and beam it back down using lasers to meet energy demands .
It is thought that energy could be beamed anywhere on the planet , save for the poles , according to the UK Space Agency .
The research will be led by consulting firm Frazer-Nash , and will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the engineering involved , and whether it could deliver cheaper energy for consumers .

Does this by any chance suggest that wind and solar power may not quite be the wondrous energy future our leaders keep trying to hoodwink the public with? No word on costs so far.
– – –
It is thought that energy could be beamed anywhere on the planet, save for the poles, according to the UK Space Agency.
From an idea first mooted in 1941, the UK has launched research into whether solar power in space could be beamed back to Earth as a sustainable energy source, reports Sky News.
The concept was first thought up by science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov; now the UK Space Agency and UK government are aiming to make the idea a reality.
Space-based solar power (SBSP) stations would capture the solar energy emitted by the sun that never makes it to Earth, and beam it back down using lasers to meet energy demands.
It is thought that energy could be beamed anywhere on the planet, save for the poles, according to the UK Space Agency.
The research will be led by consulting firm Frazer-Nash, and will look at the viability of the stations, the engineering involved, and whether it could deliver cheaper energy for consumers.
Full report here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
https://ift.tt/32STmmC
November 16, 2020 at 11:54AM


UK: emission impossible?

Futile obsession with the trace gas carbon dioxide looks likely to expose the UK government ’ s so-called climate policies as hopelessly unrealistic , soon enough .
Net zero or not zero ?
– – – The UK is on course to reduce its emissions by less than a fifth of what ’ s needed to meet interim climate change targets , according to data shared exclusively with Sky News .
The think tank Green Alliance says its analysis of current policies shows the longer-term goal of being net zero by 2050 is also in jeopardy .
The government is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan of action on climate change .
But Green Alliance says even proposed policies including bringing forward the banning of sales of new petrol , diesel and hybrid cars wouldn ’ t be enough to get the government to even half of its interim reduction target .
Sales of petrol , diesel and hybrid cars are currently due to end in 2040 though the government is considering bringing that forward to 2035 and green groups want them withdrawn by 2030 .
The government has set a legally binding target for the UK to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 the UK emitted 451 megatonnes of carbon .
If there was a linear reduction of carbon by 2030 emissions would need to have been reduced to 314 megatonnes .
Green Alliance says this year the government announced policies to reduce emissions by 47 million tonnes towards the interim 2030 emissions reduction target – notably the expansion of wind and solar power .
But it says that amounts to a 17 % reduction of what needs to be done to meet the interim target .
If you add in proposed new policies currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by another 53 million tonnes – together that would mean a 36 % reduction of the emissions cuts needed to meet the 2030 target .
There is huge pressure on the UK to show it is a leader on tackling climate change ahead of hosting next year ’ s COP26 climate conference when the world aims to agree ambitious pledges to reduce greenhouse gases .

Futile obsession with the trace gas carbon dioxide looks likely to expose the UK government’s so-called climate policies as hopelessly unrealistic, soon enough. Net zero or not zero?
– – –
The UK is on course to reduce its emissions by less than a fifth of what’s needed to meet interim climate change targets, according to data shared exclusively with Sky News.
The think tank Green Alliance says its analysis of current policies shows the longer-term goal of being net zero by 2050 is also in jeopardy.
The government is shortly expected to announce a ten point plan of action on climate change. But Green Alliance says even proposed policies including bringing forward the banning of sales of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars wouldn’t be enough to get the government to even half of its interim reduction target.
Sales of petrol, diesel and hybrid cars are currently due to end in 2040 though the government is considering bringing that forward to 2035 and green groups want them withdrawn by 2030.
The government has set a legally binding target for the UK to be net zero by 2050. In 2018 the UK emitted 451 megatonnes of carbon. If there was a linear reduction of carbon by 2030 emissions would need to have been reduced to 314 megatonnes.
Green Alliance says this year the government announced policies to reduce emissions by 47 million tonnes towards the interim 2030 emissions reduction target – notably the expansion of wind and solar power.
But it says that amounts to a 17% reduction of what needs to be done to meet the interim target.
If you add in proposed new policies currently out to consultation that would reduce emissions by another 53 million tonnes – together that would mean a 36% reduction of the emissions cuts needed to meet the 2030 target.
There is huge pressure on the UK to show it is a leader on tackling climate change ahead of hosting next year’s COP26 climate conference when the world aims to agree ambitious pledges to reduce greenhouse gases.
Full report here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
https://ift.tt/32TzFed
November 17, 2020 at 05:06AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Bradley–Rob, not Ray–Gets Attention on Twitter

I am a historian of thought on many things energy and climate , including myself .
I want to be as clear as possible about my positions and ideas for the future to judge .
There are interviews and biographical entries at MasterResource to this end .
So it was of interest when I came across some mentions of me on Twitter ( which I do not partake in ) .
My comments follow the mentions .
This is from August 14 , 2019 .
Comment : Andrew Dessler got in a dig .
A few points : my peer-reviewed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Two , I specialize in books , even treatise length , more than articles , and my books have received a good deal of peer review and a fair amount of reviews .
But I must say that I am on my own with the long books since few reviewers are really going to read them , and those that do ( like David Glaser here ) plug their own work while reading just enough to offer some praise and criticism .
Such is human nature in an age of big books @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far as being “ pretty much a zero in the public debate , ” I am pleased and fortunate to be associated with the Institute for Energy Research ( IER ) , which has been and probably will continue to be quite prominent in the energy debate with its advocacy arm , the American Energy Alliance ( AEA ) .
This said , my report card will be from the scholarly side and graded in the future .
I am optimistic that my contributions will be recognized when applied political economy and deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generation of scholars .
I have had a few public moments .
Back in 2011 , I ‘ won ’ an international debate held by the The Economist on the question : “ This house believes that subsidizing renewable energy is a good way to wean the world off fossil fuels.
” I garnered 52 percent of the vote , which ended up being more than double the predebate estimate of 6,000 .
[ The Economist took down the debate , but it is summarized at MasterResource in several posts ( here ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dessler , who I have criticized and challenged much , I again invite you to debate side-by-side or face-to-face .
The ball has long been in your court… .
Comment : Yes , the climate crusade has central planning and totalitarianism written all over it .
It is a “ road to serfdom.
” The settled science is more on the side of CO2 emissions/concentrations being positive , not negative ( CO2 fertilization ; 1.2C primary warming ) .
And yes , the greenest fuels are fossil ( as in mineral energies ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Huber [ Hard Green : Saving the Environment from the Environmentalists ( 1999 ) , pp .
105 , 108 ] to make this point : Comment : This is incorrect .
Gerald North was relatively moderate , and I played off his moderation to support a middle-ground position .
Like Patrick Michaels ( and Jerry Taylor back at Cato ) , I was a ‘ global lukewarmer ’ .
Jerry North ’ s sensitivity estimate was at the upper end of the ‘ lukewarmer ’ range , and he was very critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settled climate science as always “ a decade away.
” North stated in the Houston Chronicle back in 2008 : And no ( per Jerry Taylor ) , I did not become “ much more militantly adversarial to mainstream climate science after he left Enron.
” My views in Climate Alarmism Reconsidered ( 2004 ) , post-Enron , were the same as at Enron and even today , give or take .
Comment : Thank you Jerry… .
And for the record , Ken Lay was a climate activist not only because of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s lifeline investments in both the solar and the wind industries in the 1990s .
James Hansen was the father of climate alarm from the physical science side ; Ken Lay , more than any other corporate executive , was the father of splitting the fossil-fuel industries for the cronyism that has only grown since the 1990s .
As Jeremy Leggett [ The Carbon War ( London : Penguin Books , 1999 ) , p. 204 ] stated , Enron was “ the company most responsible for sparking off the greenhouse civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @

“Yes, the climate crusade has central planning and totalitarianism written all over it. It is a ‘road to serfdom.’ The settled science is more on the side of CO2 emissions/concentrations being positive, not negative (CO2 fertilization; 1.2C primary warming). And yes, the greenest fuels are fossil (as in mineral energies).”
I am a historian of thought on many things energy and climate, including myself. I want to be as clear as possible about my positions and ideas for the future to judge. There are interviews and biographical entries at MasterResource to this end.
So it was of interest when I came across some mentions of me on Twitter (which I do not partake in). My comments follow the mentions.
This is from August 14, 2019.
I wonder if the authors confused Ray Bradley and Rob Bradley. I find it very very hard to believe Rob Bradley is "highly cited". My sense is that he’s pretty much a zero in the public debate.@jerry_jtaylor — Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) August 14, 2019
Comment: Andrew Dessler got in a dig. A few points: my peer-reviewed articles are on the economics/political economy side. Two, I specialize in books, even treatise length, more than articles, and my books have received a good deal of peer review and a fair amount of reviews.
But I must say that I am on my own with the long books since few reviewers are really going to read them, and those that do (like David Glaser here) plug their own work while reading just enough to offer some praise and criticism. Such is human nature in an age of big books and little time.
Third, as far as being “pretty much a zero in the public debate,” I am pleased and fortunate to be associated with the Institute for Energy Research (IER), which has been and probably will continue to be quite prominent in the energy debate with its advocacy arm, the American Energy Alliance (AEA). This said, my report card will be from the scholarly side and graded in the future. I am optimistic that my contributions will be recognized when applied political economy and deep business history is resurrected by the next generation of scholars.
I have had a few public moments. Back in 2011, I ‘won’ an international debate held by the The Economist on the question: “This house believes that subsidizing renewable energy is a good way to wean the world off fossil fuels.” I garnered 52 percent of the vote, which ended up being more than double the predebate estimate of 6,000. [The Economist took down the debate, but it is summarized at MasterResource in several posts (here)].
In any case, Professor Dessler, who I have criticized and challenged much, I again invite you to debate side-by-side or face-to-face. The ball has long been in your court….
Search for Bradley, who spoke at TPPF2015:https://t.co/t1AMVbcI5D
I linked to talk, but my quick summary:
He .. equates global warming scare to socialism, says he thinks the externality of global warming is positive not negative,says that the greenest fuels are fossil. — John Mashey (@JohnMashey) August 15, 2019
Comment: Yes, the climate crusade has central planning and totalitarianism written all over it. It is a “road to serfdom.” The settled science is more on the side of CO2 emissions/concentrations being positive, not negative (CO2 fertilization; 1.2C primary warming). And yes, the greenest fuels are fossil (as in mineral energies). I use this quotation from Peter Huber [Hard Green: Saving the Environment from the Environmentalists (1999), pp. 105, 108] to make this point:
The greenest fuels are the ones that contain the most energy per pound of material that must be mined, trucked, pumped, piped, and burnt. … [In contrast], extracting comparable amounts of energy from the surface would entail truly monstrous environmental disruption…. The greenest possible strategy is to mine and to bury, to fly and to tunnel, to search high and low, where the life mostly isn’t, and so to leave the edge, the space in the middle, living and green.
Oddly enough, when Rob was at Enron, he was modest climate realist. Back then, he was an admirer of Gerald North’s climate work and extremely skeptical about “lukewarmer” narratives. He became much more militantly adversarial to mainstream climate science after he left Enron. — Jerry Taylor (@jerry_jtaylor) August 15, 2019
Comment: This is incorrect. Gerald North was relatively moderate, and I played off his moderation to support a middle-ground position. Like Patrick Michaels (and Jerry Taylor back at Cato), I was a ‘global lukewarmer’. Jerry North’s sensitivity estimate was at the upper end of the ‘lukewarmer’ range, and he was very critical about climate models.
To North, settled climate science as always “a decade away.” North stated in the Houston Chronicle back in 2008:
In his article Sunday, Rob Bradley reminds us of the errors made about dire climate predictions proffered by some climate science outliers…. Virtually all of these dire predictions were never made or endorsed by the mainstream climate community of researchers in the field. [North, “Fringe Predictions,” Letter to the Editor, Houston Chronicle, April 1, 2008.]
And no (per Jerry Taylor), I did not become “much more militantly adversarial to mainstream climate science after he left Enron.” My views in Climate Alarmism Reconsidered (2004), post-Enron, were the same as at Enron and even today, give or take.
That might have been due to the fact that Ken Lay was somewhat supportive of climate action—probably because he was in the natural gas business. That said, in Rob’s defense, he’s been quite critical (post-departure) of Enron’s alleged “crony capitalism” (as Rob puts it). — Jerry Taylor (@jerry_jtaylor) August 15, 2019
Comment: Thank you Jerry…. And for the record, Ken Lay was a climate activist not only because of natural gas but also because of Enron’s lifeline investments in both the solar and the wind industries in the 1990s.
James Hansen was the father of climate alarm from the physical science side; Ken Lay, more than any other corporate executive, was the father of splitting the fossil-fuel industries for the cronyism that has only grown since the 1990s. As Jeremy Leggett [The Carbon War (London: Penguin Books, 1999), p. 204] stated, Enron was “the company most responsible for sparking off the greenhouse civil war in the hydrocarbon business.”
(And you can read more on Enron, me, and climate change/renewables here.)


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Climate Refugees: Dutch Families Abandon Homes To Escape Excruciating Wind Turbine Noise

The real climate refugees are those forced to abandoned their homes thanks to a grinding , pulsing cacophony of wind turbine generated low-frequency noise and infra-sound .
The climate catastrophists wail about millions being displaced by rising tides and chaotic weather .
But it ’ s their obsession with chaotically intermittent wind power , that ’ s causing a real rural exodus .
The bucolic Dutch landscape – which thrives , notwithstanding that a third of it is below sea level – has been carpeted with these things over the last generation ; homes have been encircled ; entire villages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , once peaceful abodes , are driven mad by wind turbine noise and , in far too many cases , they ’ re simply driven out of their homes , forever .
It ’ s a story which is as sad as it is familiar to rural communities , across the globe .
Victims are told by the ruthless and cynical that profit from the greatest scam on earth , that they ’ re just ‘ collateral damage ’ and treated by those paid and empowered to protect them , as wind industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your wind powered future looks like , let ’ s head to the Netherlands .
First Dutch climate refugees fleeing wind turbines : “ The noise is unbearable ” Global Warming Policy Forum translated from De Telegraaf Edwin Timmer 2 November 2020 AMSTERDAM – The first Dutch climate refugees are a fact .
Not because of wet feet , but because citizens can not cope with the noise of wind farms .
Residents close to biomass power stations also complain bitterly .
Are health and the environment in the Netherlands subordinate to our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a similarity with the Groningen gas and the Limburg mines : energy interests outweigh other interests.
” Every time he sent his Connexxion public transport bus across the Haringvliet Bridge , Claus aan de Wiel looked to the northwest with concern .
Towards five windturbines two hundred meters high , ten kilometers away , near Piershil .
“ How ’ s the wind ?
Isn ’ t it too windy ?
What will it be like when I get home ?
” Will it be another evening where the turbine noise rumbles like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ TV ?
“ I never slept a wink .
Sometimes I got back on the bus after only three and a half hours of sleep .
” Windfear Windfear .
The bus driver and his partner Ine van den Dool suffered from it after the Spui wind farm was set up five hundred meters from their house .
The initiator still boasted about the Rolls-Royce among the windturbines – so quiet .
“ But we were shocked .
The noise was unbearable .
The house was built by my parents , I grew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leave between six planks , but we could not stand it ” , says Aan de Wiel .
Sound waves banged on the facades from three sides .
Even the moles disappeared from their garden .
Van den Dool loved the greenery and space in the Hoeksche Waard .
“ It was a heavenly , healing place .
Where we sat in the garden with friends until late .
The wind farm has distroyed that .
It was as if a jet plane kept circling overhead .
I developed severe asthma and could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if my body was screaming : this is not safe , you have to get out of here .
” And so the pair left .
As a climate refugee in their own country .
Turbine noise It is the compression of air when a wick sweeps past the mast that makes the typical turbine noise .
“ Our noise standards for wind turbines are much more flexible than in neighboring countries , ” says Fred Jansen from Schagen .
Ten years ago , as chairman of the National Critical Platform for Wind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s new noise standards .
According to Jansen , they only work in favor of wind farm builders .
“ Local residents are the victims.
” The World Health Organization recommends that the wind turbine noise for local residents be kept below an average of 45 decibels per day ( 45 L-den ) .
Louder noise “ is associated with adverse health effects , ” according to the 2018 report “ Environmental Noise Guidelines for the European Region ” .
However , Dutch law allows an average of 47 decibels during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decibels .
Since every three decibels means a doubling , that saves a sip on a drink , Janssen believes .
Sound expert Marcel Blankvoort confirms the Dutch exceptional position .
Our country works with averages , where other Western European countries , apart from Norway , allow a maximum peak load on the facade .
“ And we don ’ t include background noise .
Elsewhere , a turbine in an industrial estate is allowed to make more noise than in the countryside , because there is more noise there anyway .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That is why wind turbines in a previously quiet polder are more likely to be perceived as a deterioration in the living environment .
” In the ‘ Nijpelsian landscape ’ ( named after the architect of the Dutch climate agreement ) , full of wind farms , those sound waves hit more and more citizens .
It is not only wind energy that the government is helping , on paper , to halve CO2 emissions by 2030 .
Subsidizing the burning of woody biomass also helps the accountants in The Hague @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Billions of euros in subsidies have already been promised for hundreds of biomass plants .
But the nuisance for local residents has caused a fierce social debate about wood burning .
“ Recently our bedroom was full of smoke again , ” says Rini Ruitenschild from Ede .
He lives with his family at a distance of one hundred and eighty meters from one of the local biomass plants , which does not burn gas but wood for district heating .
“ It is not the first time .
My wife has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is full of dirty air again , then you will become unruly .
” Officially , the heat company adheres to the rules .
That also applies in Zaandam .
But residents of the senior apartment De IJdoorn are done with it .
From the eleventh floor , Co and Jeanne Meester regularly see smoke drifting from the much lower chimney of the biomass power plant about two hundred meters away .
“ The stench is unbearable .
How do you get it into your head to place such a thing in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next to a school and close to a hospital ?
” Says Meester .
“ We are concerned about the effect on our health and that of my flatmates.
” Health issues The disadvantages of wood burning for energy have been known for years , says Fenna Swart of the Clean Air Committee .
“ It ’ s expensive , it destroys ecosystems and it ’ s bad for biodiversity .
In addition , the emission of wood combustion causes air pollution .
We don ’ t even have standards for ultrafine particles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are other substances of very high concern that no filter will help against .
It is not without reason that people who cook on wood in developing countries develop health problems .
And we are now returning to that on a large scale , in the Netherlands and throughout Europe .
” The Dutch Lung Foundation is also concerned about health effects and regularly receives complaints about biomass burners .
In the summer , the Foundation responded with satisfaction to the “ phasing out of the use of woody biomass ” , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advisory board tot the Dutch government , wishes .
“ But we don ’ t see anything of that phase-out yet , ” Swart criticizes .
“ Because Minister Eric Wiebes fails to make it concrete with an end date and buy-out schemes .
The House of Representatives stands by .
Industry and politics are holding on to each other and our health is in check.
” “ Wind turbine syndrome ” In Piershil , Ine van den Dool searched for an explanation for her physical complaints since the wind turbines were running @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turbine syndrome ” , a term coined by the American doctor Nina Pierpont .
Scientifically , there is still much discussion , but Pierpont registered a list of identical complaints for several people who live near wind turbines : sleep disturbance , headache , tinnitus , dizziness , nausea , irritation and cardiac arrhythmias .
“ Very recognizable .
Falling asleep and staying asleep was no longer possible .
I fled the house as often as I could .
” Dutch doctors are also stirring gradually .
Some GPs , such as Sylvia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , already warn against the effects of low-frequency noise , shadow cast and flashing red lights at night .
The Leiden University Medical Center recently recognized a worsening of heart disease due to low-frequency sound .
“ If there are so many indications that it is wrong , then we should investigate further , right ?
” , says Fred Jansen of the Critical Platform Wind Energy .
“ Or at least follow the WHO advice .
But yes , that would mean that fewer windmills would fit in the Netherlands .
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ firm , Marcel Blankvoort works as a knowledge leader for wind farm developers as well as for interest groups who oppose it .
“ It is always a trade-off between several interests , including those of residents and energy generation .
It is clear , however , that our government has made its choices about noise standards in such a way that sustainability through the energy transition is possible .
I do see a similarity with Groningen gas and the Limburg mines : energy interests again outweigh others .
” The climate refugees @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place on Goeree-Overflakkee since the summer .
They are the sixth family within two years to move from Oudendijk .
Aan de Wiel now says he feels a lot calmer on the bus .
“ I now understand the gigantic stress situation we were living in .
It was as if I was there waiting for my death ; once at home I didn ’ t feel like doing anything anymore .
But if they tear down those turbines tomorrow , I ’ d love to return .
I miss the place I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are no longer ‘ bunker citizens ’ , agrees his partner .
“ We couldn ’ t sleep there with the window open , nor sit in the garden .
Here we live outside again .
And we sleep like marmots , as if we need to sleep in for a century .
” Within two weeks after the move , Van den Dool was off the drug Ventolin , because her asthma complaints disappeared like snow in the sun .
‘ Is that a coincidence ?
No , it proves to me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ live under the violence of those rotten turbines.
” Global Warming Policy Forum

The real climate refugees are those forced to abandoned their homes thanks to a grinding, pulsing cacophony of wind turbine generated low-frequency noise and infra-sound.
The climate catastrophists wail about millions being displaced by rising tides and chaotic weather. But it’s their obsession with chaotically intermittent wind power, that’s causing a real rural exodus.
The bucolic Dutch landscape – which thrives, notwithstanding that a third of it is below sea level – has been carpeted with these things over the last generation; homes have been encircled; entire villages surrounded. The families that occupy these, once peaceful abodes, are driven mad by wind turbine noise and, in far too many cases, they’re simply driven out of their homes, forever.
It’s a story which is as sad as it is familiar to rural communities, across the globe.
Victims are told by the ruthless and cynical that profit from the greatest scam on earth, that they’re just ‘collateral damage’ and treated by those paid and empowered to protect them, as wind industry roadkill.
For a taste of what your wind powered future looks like, let’s head to the Netherlands.
First Dutch climate refugees fleeing wind turbines: “The noise is unbearable”
Global Warming Policy Forum translated from De Telegraaf
Edwin Timmer
2 November 2020
AMSTERDAM – The first Dutch climate refugees are a fact. Not because of wet feet, but because citizens cannot cope with the noise of wind farms.
Residents close to biomass power stations also complain bitterly. Are health and the environment in the Netherlands subordinate to our climate goals? “I do see a similarity with the Groningen gas and the Limburg mines: energy interests outweigh other interests.”
Every time he sent his Connexxion public transport bus across the Haringvliet Bridge, Claus aan de Wiel looked to the northwest with concern. Towards five windturbines two hundred meters high, ten kilometers away, near Piershil. “How’s the wind? Isn’t it too windy? What will it be like when I get home? ” Will it be another evening where the turbine noise rumbles like a rolling, roaring surf above the TV? “I never slept a wink. Sometimes I got back on the bus after only three and a half hours of sleep. ”
Windfear
Windfear. The bus driver and his partner Ine van den Dool suffered from it after the Spui wind farm was set up five hundred meters from their house. The initiator still boasted about the Rolls-Royce among the windturbines – so quiet. “But we were shocked. The noise was unbearable. The house was built by my parents, I grew up there and thought I would only leave between six planks, but we could not stand it ”, says Aan de Wiel. Sound waves banged on the facades from three sides. Even the moles disappeared from their garden.
Van den Dool loved the greenery and space in the Hoeksche Waard. “It was a heavenly, healing place. Where we sat in the garden with friends until late. The wind farm has distroyed that. It was as if a jet plane kept circling overhead. I developed severe asthma and could not stop coughing at night. As if my body was screaming: this is not safe, you have to get out of here. ” And so the pair left. As a climate refugee in their own country.
Turbine noise
It is the compression of air when a wick sweeps past the mast that makes the typical turbine noise. “Our noise standards for wind turbines are much more flexible than in neighboring countries,” says Fred Jansen from Schagen. Ten years ago, as chairman of the National Critical Platform for Wind Energy, he already opposed the cabinet’s new noise standards. According to Jansen, they only work in favor of wind farm builders. “Local residents are the victims.”
The World Health Organization recommends that the wind turbine noise for local residents be kept below an average of 45 decibels per day (45 L-den). Louder noise “is associated with adverse health effects,” according to the 2018 report “Environmental Noise Guidelines for the European Region”. However, Dutch law allows an average of 47 decibels during the day, and peaks well above 50 decibels. Since every three decibels means a doubling, that saves a sip on a drink, Janssen believes.
Sound expert Marcel Blankvoort confirms the Dutch exceptional position. Our country works with averages, where other Western European countries, apart from Norway, allow a maximum peak load on the facade. “And we don’t include background noise. Elsewhere, a turbine in an industrial estate is allowed to make more noise than in the countryside, because there is more noise there anyway. Here, the same standard applies everywhere. That is why wind turbines in a previously quiet polder are more likely to be perceived as a deterioration in the living environment. ” In the ‘Nijpelsian landscape’ (named after the architect of the Dutch climate agreement), full of wind farms, those sound waves hit more and more citizens.
It is not only wind energy that the government is helping, on paper, to halve CO2 emissions by 2030. Subsidizing the burning of woody biomass also helps the accountants in The Hague to comply with the Paris Agreement. Billions of euros in subsidies have already been promised for hundreds of biomass plants. But the nuisance for local residents has caused a fierce social debate about wood burning.
“Recently our bedroom was full of smoke again,” says Rini Ruitenschild from Ede. He lives with his family at a distance of one hundred and eighty meters from one of the local biomass plants, which does not burn gas but wood for district heating. “It is not the first time. My wife has a lung problem. If your whole house is full of dirty air again, then you will become unruly. ” Officially, the heat company adheres to the rules.
That also applies in Zaandam. But residents of the senior apartment De IJdoorn are done with it. From the eleventh floor, Co and Jeanne Meester regularly see smoke drifting from the much lower chimney of the biomass power plant about two hundred meters away. “The stench is unbearable. How do you get it into your head to place such a thing in the middle of a residential area, right next to a school and close to a hospital? ”Says Meester. “We are concerned about the effect on our health and that of my flatmates.”
Health issues
The disadvantages of wood burning for energy have been known for years, says Fenna Swart of the Clean Air Committee. “It’s expensive, it destroys ecosystems and it’s bad for biodiversity. In addition, the emission of wood combustion causes air pollution. We don’t even have standards for ultrafine particles entering our lungs. And then there are other substances of very high concern that no filter will help against. It is not without reason that people who cook on wood in developing countries develop health problems. And we are now returning to that on a large scale, in the Netherlands and throughout Europe. ”
The Dutch Lung Foundation is also concerned about health effects and regularly receives complaints about biomass burners. In the summer, the Foundation responded with satisfaction to the “phasing out of the use of woody biomass”, as the Social Economic Council, an important advisory board tot the Dutch government, wishes. “But we don’t see anything of that phase-out yet,” Swart criticizes. “Because Minister Eric Wiebes fails to make it concrete with an end date and buy-out schemes. The House of Representatives stands by. Industry and politics are holding on to each other and our health is in check.”
“Wind turbine syndrome”
In Piershil, Ine van den Dool searched for an explanation for her physical complaints since the wind turbines were running. She came across the “wind turbine syndrome”, a term coined by the American doctor Nina Pierpont. Scientifically, there is still much discussion, but Pierpont registered a list of identical complaints for several people who live near wind turbines: sleep disturbance, headache, tinnitus, dizziness, nausea, irritation and cardiac arrhythmias. “Very recognizable. Falling asleep and staying asleep was no longer possible. I fled the house as often as I could. ”
Dutch doctors are also stirring gradually. Some GPs, such as Sylvia van Manen in the magazine Medisch Contact, already warn against the effects of low-frequency noise, shadow cast and flashing red lights at night. The Leiden University Medical Center recently recognized a worsening of heart disease due to low-frequency sound. “If there are so many indications that it is wrong, then we should investigate further, right?”, says Fred Jansen of the Critical Platform Wind Energy. “Or at least follow the WHO advice. But yes, that would mean that fewer windmills would fit in the Netherlands. ”
Energy interests
At the Cauberg Huygen engineering firm, Marcel Blankvoort works as a knowledge leader for wind farm developers as well as for interest groups who oppose it. “It is always a trade-off between several interests, including those of residents and energy generation. It is clear, however, that our government has made its choices about noise standards in such a way that sustainability through the energy transition is possible. I do see a similarity with Groningen gas and the Limburg mines: energy interests again outweigh others. ”
The climate refugees from Piershil have moved to a quieter place on Goeree-Overflakkee since the summer. They are the sixth family within two years to move from Oudendijk. Aan de Wiel now says he feels a lot calmer on the bus. “I now understand the gigantic stress situation we were living in. It was as if I was there waiting for my death; once at home I didn’t feel like doing anything anymore. But if they tear down those turbines tomorrow, I’d love to return. I miss the place I used to be. ”
“We are no longer ‘bunker citizens’, agrees his partner. “We couldn’t sleep there with the window open, nor sit in the garden. Here we live outside again. And we sleep like marmots, as if we need to sleep in for a century. ” Within two weeks after the move, Van den Dool was off the drug Ventolin, because her asthma complaints disappeared like snow in the sun. ‘Is that a coincidence? No, it proves to me what an abnormal life we had to live under the violence of those rotten turbines.”
Global Warming Policy Forum


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Bezos Gives $791 million to Climate Activists, Another $9 billion Planned

Every time you buy through Amazon or subscribe to Amazon streaming services , a small amount of your money goes to groups which actively oppose President Trump ’ s energy and climate policies .
Bezos makes first donations from $ 10 billion Earth Fund for fighting climate change Amazon chief executive and owner of The Washington Post says climate change is most urgent issue facing the planet .
By Steven MufsonNovember 17 , 2020 at 2:28 a.m. GMT+10 Jeff Bezos said Monday he is giving $ 791 million to 16 groups fighting climate change , the first grants from his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ just the beginning of my $ 10 billion commitment to fund scientists , activists , NGOs , and others.
” Bezos , the founder and chief executive of Amazon , also bestowed money on groups concerned with environmental justice , including Dream Corps ’ Green For All , the Hive Fund for Climate and Gender Justice , and the Solutions Project .
“ I ’ ve spent the past several months learning from a group of incredibly smart people who ’ ve made it their life ’ s work to fight climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world , ” Bezos said in an Instagram post .
“ I ’ m inspired by what they ’ re doing , and excited to help them scale .
… We can all protect Earth ’ s future by taking bold action now.
” The Washington Post goes on to explain how the $ 100 million grant to the Environmental Defence Fund will be spent on a satellite monitoring system , to allow the group to identify and legally pursue methane leaks .
Obviously it is up to Bezos what he does @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wonder how many jobs will be destroyed by Bezos helping the Environmental Defence Fund identify more methane leaks ?
The petroleum industry is not just ultra rich oil tycoons with mansions and Cadillacs , there are also a lot of small operators just getting by , reeling from the economic impact of the Covid lockdown , struggling to pay the mortgage on their third hand equipment , giving their all to try to build a better life for their families and provide a steady income for their employees .
Over zealous enforcement of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Every time you buy through Amazon or subscribe to Amazon streaming services, a small amount of your money goes to groups which actively oppose President Trump’s energy and climate policies.
Bezos makes first donations from $10 billion Earth Fund for fighting climate change Amazon chief executive and owner of The Washington Post says climate change is most urgent issue facing the planet. By Steven MufsonNovember 17, 2020 at 2:28 a.m. GMT+10 Jeff Bezos said Monday he is giving $791 million to 16 groups fighting climate change, the first grants from his Earth Fund, saying the money is “just the beginning of my $10 billion commitment to fund scientists, activists, NGOs, and others.” … Bezos, the founder and chief executive of Amazon, also bestowed money on groups concerned with environmental justice, including Dream Corps’ Green For All, the Hive Fund for Climate and Gender Justice, and the Solutions Project. “I’ve spent the past several months learning from a group of incredibly smart people who’ve made it their life’s work to fight climate change and its impact on communities around the world,” Bezos said in an Instagram post. “I’m inspired by what they’re doing, and excited to help them scale. … We can all protect Earth’s future by taking bold action now.” … Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/11/16/bezos-climate-grants/
The Washington Post goes on to explain how the $100 million grant to the Environmental Defence Fund will be spent on a satellite monitoring system, to allow the group to identify and legally pursue methane leaks.
Obviously it is up to Bezos what he does with his own money. But I wonder how many jobs will be destroyed by Bezos helping the Environmental Defence Fund identify more methane leaks?
The petroleum industry is not just ultra rich oil tycoons with mansions and Cadillacs, there are also a lot of small operators just getting by, reeling from the economic impact of the Covid lockdown, struggling to pay the mortgage on their third hand equipment, giving their all to try to build a better life for their families and provide a steady income for their employees. Over zealous enforcement of methane standards will not help their situation.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Strange sea ice pattern over Hudson Bay as winds blow polar bears offshore

Winds blew a huge mass of new shorefast sea ice way out into Western Hudson Bay a few days ago ( 13 November ) and very likely took some polar bears with it .
This offshore wind phenomenon is common at this time of year – it happened in 2017 – and is often part of the yearly ‘ freeze-up ’ process for sea ice .
But the extent of ice and the distance blown offshore in Hudson Bay this year is impressive .
In previous years , this has happened very early in the freeze-up sequence , well before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polar bears .
This year is different : freeze-up was early ( starting in late October ) and the ice was thick enough off Western Hudson Bay to support bears hunting successfully for seals by the last day of October .
By 7 November , most bears had left for the ice , with only a few stragglers left behind – since they were all in good condition due to a late breakup of the ice this summer , there were remarkably few problem with bears in Churchill and some seemed in no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ started to form .
It ’ s doubtful that any bears out on that wind-blown ice are in any kind of peril .
As long as the ice is thick enough to support their weight , they should be fine – and keeping themselves busy catching seals .
The chart above is from NSIDC Masie for 15 November 2020 ( Day 320 ) – it showed the same large offshore patch of ice the day before .
However , only today did the Canadian Ice Service ( CIS ) chart show even part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : In this case , I ’ m trusting the Masie chart because it seems the CIS sensors aren ’ t yet set to pick up ice that ’ s far offshore , as the detailed stage of development chart for 16 November ( below ) shows ( grey-white ice is 15-30 cm thick , grey ice is 10-15 cm , but see discussion below ) : However , after I ’ d almost given up that we ’ d hear from Andrew Derocher about his polar bears with still-functioning collars , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below ) .
Even his chart shows that big patch of offshore ice but he didn ’ t comment on it at all .
It appears that of the 9 collars he deployed on females last year only one is on the ice , well offshore ( north of Churchill ) .
Derocher is still claiming that this is not an early freeze-up year even though it ’ s clear many bears have already left for the ice and only a few stragglers remain , including most of his collared bears .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pregnant ( especially the two furthest inland ) and won ’ t be going anywhere this fall .
And we already know that many of Derocher ’ s collared bears were very late to come onshore in August and having only spent 3 months onshore rather than 4 or 5 months they are used to , may now be in no hurry to leave – especially since they know that seals are to be had out on that ‘ very thin ’ ice just offshore .
Unfortunately , the Polar Bear Alert Program @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report for the first week in November ( 2-8 Nov ) , so there is no information on the progress of freeze-up and polar bear movements from that authority .
There might be one issued tomorrow for the second week ( 9-15 Nov ) , if so I ’ ll post it here .
It ’ s important to know that even big male bears only need ice that ’ s about 30 cm thick to hold their weight .
And while the newly formed grey ice is technically only 10-15 cm ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , the ice offshore this year is very compressed and buckled ( see below from 7 November ) , making it thicker than it might appear on the official ice charts .

Winds blew a huge mass of new shorefast sea ice way out into Western Hudson Bay a few days ago (13 November) and very likely took some polar bears with it. This offshore wind phenomenon is common at this time of year – it happened in 2017 – and is often part of the yearly ‘freeze-up’ process for sea ice. But the extent of ice and the distance blown offshore in Hudson Bay this year is impressive.
In previous years, this has happened very early in the freeze-up sequence, well before the ice was thick enough to support polar bears. This year is different: freeze-up was early (starting in late October) and the ice was thick enough off Western Hudson Bay to support bears hunting successfully for seals by the last day of October. By 7 November, most bears had left for the ice, with only a few stragglers left behind – since they were all in good condition due to a late breakup of the ice this summer, there were remarkably few problem with bears in Churchill and some seemed in no hurry to leave once the shorefast ice started to form.
It’s doubtful that any bears out on that wind-blown ice are in any kind of peril. As long as the ice is thick enough to support their weight, they should be fine – and keeping themselves busy catching seals.
The chart above is from NSIDC Masie for 15 November 2020 (Day 320) – it showed the same large offshore patch of ice the day before. However, only today did the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) chart show even part of the offshore patch (below):
In this case, I’m trusting the Masie chart because it seems the CIS sensors aren’t yet set to pick up ice that’s far offshore, as the detailed stage of development chart for 16 November (below) shows (grey-white ice is 15-30 cm thick, grey ice is 10-15 cm, but see discussion below):
However, after I’d almost given up that we’d hear from Andrew Derocher about his polar bears with still-functioning collars, he posted a tracking map late today (below). Even his chart shows that big patch of offshore ice but he didn’t comment on it at all. It appears that of the 9 collars he deployed on females last year only one is on the ice, well offshore (north of Churchill).
Despite no new polar bear collars deployed this year, we have a few that should continue through the coming months. Only 1 of 9 bears has ventured offshore onto very thin sea ice. The rest of the bears are still waiting onshore. No early freeze-up but it’s not late (yet). pic.twitter.com/kS9NmE8rTJ — Andrew Derocher (@AEDerocher) November 17, 2020
Derocher is still claiming that this is not an early freeze-up year even though it’s clear many bears have already left for the ice and only a few stragglers remain, including most of his collared bears. However, some of his bears are probably pregnant (especially the two furthest inland) and won’t be going anywhere this fall. And we already know that many of Derocher’s collared bears were very late to come onshore in August and having only spent 3 months onshore rather than 4 or 5 months they are used to, may now be in no hurry to leave – especially since they know that seals are to be had out on that ‘very thin’ ice just offshore.
Unfortunately, the Polar Bear Alert Program in Churchill decided not to issue a report for the first week in November (2-8 Nov), so there is no information on the progress of freeze-up and polar bear movements from that authority. There might be one issued tomorrow for the second week (9-15 Nov), if so I’ll post it here.
It’s important to know that even big male bears only need ice that’s about 30 cm thick to hold their weight. And while the newly formed grey ice is technically only 10-15 cm (see the stage of development chart above), the ice offshore this year is very compressed and buckled (see below from 7 November), making it thicker than it might appear on the official ice charts.
#churchill, #collars, #freeze-up, #hudson-bay, #polar-bear, #polar-bear-alert-program, #sea-ice, #thin-ice
via polarbearscience
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November 16, 2020 at 11:42PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Dominion Voting in California

Dominion Voting in California

California certified Dominion Democracy Suite 5.10A in September 2020 , despite ( or because of ) its openness to abuse ( not “ vulnerabilities ” ) .
From the Secretary of State Staff Test Report ( PDF ) : Each component has its own security holes and/or backdoors , and many of them are sufficient to compromise the whole system .
It is not just a voting machine .
“ The Vote Center/Polling Place was setup with the Voter Activation Card Laptop , ICX machines , ICE machine , and Mobile Ballot Production for on demand printing .
EED and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ map below [ the picture ] ” RTR stands for Results Tally and Reporting , which I call Election Results Editor .
“ EMS-Results Tally Reporting ( RTR ) , v. 5.10.50.83 RTR is the main application for post-voting activities .
It receives election results from the tabulators , allows for validation of the results , and reports the results .
RTR can be used for the addition , and deletion of tabulator files .
It also allows for manual resolution of qualified write-ins.
” Addition and deletion of tabulator files with all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Suite Use Procedure ( customized for CA ) The Data Clear page allow administrators to erase results , voter data , and elections definitions.
“ ( p. 17 ) From the Dominion Democracy Suite ImageCast Remote 5.10 RAVBMS Security and Telecommunications Report : “ The DS 5.10 RAVBMS does not have a built-in hash verification method for the system to verify that the source code [ probably meant ‘ the system ] is not running modified code.
” There is a whole section Potential Vulnerabilities .
There are many : JavaScript code injection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Open Redirection ( DOM-Based ) .
But genuine vulnerabilities are beyond the scope of this post .
Why to attempt exploiting the vulnerabilities , when one can replace the original code with modified one , or to replace whole results files !
Finally “ As directed by the California Secretary of State , this security testing report does not include any recommendation as to whether or not the system should be approved.
” These are just a few quotes from the latest documents related to the Dominion Voting software used in these elections @

California Secretary of State, Frequently Requested Information –> Dominion Voting [1]:
California certified Dominion Democracy Suite 5.10A in September 2020, despite (or because of) its openness to abuse (not “vulnerabilities”). From the Secretary of State Staff Test Report (PDF):
“The Democracy Suite 5.10A voting system consists of eight major components.”
Each component has its own security holes and/or backdoors, and many of them are sufficient to compromise the whole system. It is not just a voting machine.
“The Vote Center/Polling Place was setup with the Voter Activation Card Laptop, ICX machines, ICE machine, and Mobile Ballot Production for on demand printing. EED and RTR were setup as per the logical map below [the picture]”
RTR stands for Results Tally and Reporting, which I call Election Results Editor.
“EMS-Results Tally Reporting (RTR), v. 5.10.50.83 RTR is the main application for post-voting activities. It receives election results from the tabulators, allows for validation of the results, and reports the results. RTR can be used for the addition, and deletion of tabulator files. It also allows for manual resolution of qualified write-ins.”
Addition and deletion of tabulator files with all votes in them.
From the Democracy Suite Use Procedure (customized for CA)
“3.6 DATA CLEAR
The Data Clear page allow administrators to erase results, voter data, and elections definitions.“ (p. 17)
Erasing results, no less!
From the Dominion Democracy Suite ImageCast Remote 5.10 RAVBMS Security and Telecommunications Report:
“The DS 5.10 RAVBMS does not have a built-in hash verification method for the system to verify that the source code [probably meant ‘the system] is not running modified code.”
There is a whole section Potential Vulnerabilities. There are many: JavaScript code injection, Cross-site scripting (reflected), Open Redirection (DOM-Based). But genuine vulnerabilities are beyond the scope of this post. Why to attempt exploiting the vulnerabilities, when one can replace the original code with modified one, or to replace whole results files! Finally
“As directed by the California Secretary of State, this security testing report does
not include any recommendation as to whether or not the system should be
approved.”
These are just a few quotes from the latest documents related to the Dominion Voting software used in these elections.
[1] California Secretary of State, Frequently Requested Information –> Dominion Voting
via Science Defies Politics
https://ift.tt/2H6e8Hw
November 16, 2020 at 08:53PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Deutsche Bank Green Covid-19 Recovery Plan: Tax People for the “Privilege” of Working from Home

h/t Breitbart ; You might think a German bank would see telecommuting as a positive step towards a more climate friendly future .
But according to Deutsche Bank , people who ditch the daily commute should be taxed .
To save capitalism we must help the young Democratic capitalism is under threat as increasing numbers of young people view the system as rigged against them .
The pandemic has only exacerbated their economic disadvantage .
However , there is a growing risk that as the young gain an electoral advantage , a populist politician will harness the anger and upend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To avoid this , we must now redistribute from the old to the young in ways we have not yet considered .
Don ’ t waste the crisis : How to address Europe ’ s challenges for the next decade Post-covid , Europe has a unique opportunity to make greater use of fiscal policy to support the strategic goals – green , digital , levelling up – of the EU with public investment .
For this to work , fiscal expansion must be sustained , fiscal rules rewritten and common fiscal capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are needed .
The fundamental right to connectivity The pandemic has shown how the ‘ haves ’ are more resilient than the ‘ have-nots ’ .
Much of this is based on the gap between the two groups based on their access to technology .
The divide in the US runs deepest along race and location ( urban versus rural ) .
To narrow this gap , we lay out our vision to develop an initiative that covers the more than half of households without proper broadband connection and a computer .
Rebuilding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ luxury This year , ESG principles have escalated dramatically in the minds of customers and investors .
Firms will have to produce less , avoid waste , and build products that last forever .
In short , companies should : set the new trend ; produce less , shop less , shop better ; rethink the supply chain ; spoil their local customers ; reset the distribution footprint ; build scale or be small and deal with second hand and rental models .
People who can WFH and disconnect themselves from face-to-face society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A five per cent tax for each WFH day would leave the average person no worse off than if they worked in the office .
It could raise $ 49bn per year in the US , €20bn in Germany , and £7bn in the UK .
That can fund subsidies for the lowest-paid workers who usually can not work from home .
Read more : Deutsche Bank What We Must Do to Rebuild

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; You might think a German bank would see telecommuting as a positive step towards a more climate friendly future. But according to Deutsche Bank, people who ditch the daily commute should be taxed.
From the report;
…
To save capitalism we must help the young
Democratic capitalism is under threat as increasing numbers of young people view the system as rigged against them. The pandemic has only exacerbated their economic disadvantage. However, there is a growing risk that as the young gain an electoral advantage, a populist politician will harness the anger and upend capitalism in ways that hurt inclusive development. To avoid this, we must now redistribute from the old to the young in ways we have not yet considered.
Don’t waste the crisis: How to address Europe’s challenges for the next decade
Post-covid, Europe has a unique opportunity to make greater use of fiscal policy to support the strategic goals – green, digital, levelling up – of the EU with public investment. For this to work, fiscal expansion must be sustained, fiscal rules rewritten and common fiscal capacity created. We detail the actions that are needed.
The fundamental right to connectivity
The pandemic has shown how the ‘haves’ are more resilient than the ‘have-nots’. Much of this is based on the gap between the two groups based on their access to technology. The divide in the US runs deepest along race and location (urban versus rural). To narrow this gap, we lay out our vision to develop an initiative that covers the more than half of households without proper broadband connection and a computer.
Rebuilding better economies and businesses – lessons from luxury
This year, ESG principles have escalated dramatically in the minds of customers and investors. Firms will have to produce less, avoid waste, and build products that last forever. In short, companies should: set the new trend; produce less, shop less, shop better; rethink the supply chain; spoil their local customers; reset the distribution footprint; build scale or be small and deal with second hand and rental models.
A work-from-home tax
People who can WFH and disconnect themselves from face-to-face society have gained many benefits during the pandemic. A five per cent
tax for each WFH day would leave the average person no worse off than if they worked in the office. It could raise $49bn per year in the US, €20bn in Germany, and £7bn in the UK. That can fund subsidies for the lowest-paid workers who usually cannot work from home.
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-18--Good news: Gulf of Boothia and M’Clintock Channel polar bear survey results

Final reports for two Canadian subpopulations reveal the number of polar bears in M ’ Clintock Channel has more than doubled since 2000 while Gulf of Boothia as remained about the same despite moderate declines in summer sea ice cover .
All of the survey results were published online yesterday ( 16 November 2020 ) and I was alerted to the posting this morning via email by a Nunavut employee .
• Mean abundance estimate 716 ( range 545 – 955 ) for 2014-2016. compared to 284 ( range 225-343 ) for 1998-2000 ( Taylor et al .
2006 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between study periods .
• Numbers of males and females increased between study periods due to reduced hunting and ‘ improved habitat quality.
’ M ’ Clintock Channel ‘ Key Points ’ summary here and summary pdf is here .
Detailed summary here and full report pdf is here .
Sea ice decline : Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report ( Regehr et al .
2016 Figure 2 ) , summer sea ice decline for M ’ Clintock Channel has been similar to Foxe Basin ( below ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) of sea ice decline vs. documented harm to polar bears here .
• Mean abundance estimate 1525 ( range 1231-1819 ) for 2015–2017 compared to 1592 ( range 1231-1953 ) in 1998-2000 ( Taylor et al .
2009 ) , so about the same .
• Mean litter sizes showed no trend between study periods .
• Mean cub-of-the-year litter sizes were 1.61 ( range 1.51 – 1.70 ) , which is about as high as any population reported and similar to Western Hudson Bay in 2016 and Kane Basin in 2014 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ condition ( i.e.
, fatness ) in the spring increased between the study periods .
• Survival rate for adult females was higher than adult males ( 0.95 vs. 0.85 ) .
• Abundance of adult females increased from 0.57 to 0.61 between the study periods .
Detailed Gulf of Boothi summary here and full report pdf is here .
Sea ice decline : Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report calculations ( Regehr et al .
2016 Figure 2 ) , summer sea ice decline for Gulf of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beaufort : Crockford , S.J .
2020 .
State of the Polar Bear Report 2019 .
Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39 , London .
Pdf here .
Dyck , M. , Lukacs , P. , and Ware , J.V .
2020 .
Re-estimating the abundance of a recovering polar bear subpopulation by genetic mark-recapture in M ’ Clintock Channel , Nunavut , Canada .
Final Report , Government of Nunavut , Department of Environment , Iglulik .
29 July 2020 .
Pdf here .
Dyck , M. , Regehr , E.V .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Assessment of Abundance for the Gulf of Boothia Polar Bear Subpopulation Using Genetic Mark-Recapture .
Final Report , Government of Nunavut , Department of Environment , Iglulik .
12 June 2020 .
Pdf here .
Regehr , E.V.
, Laidre , K.L , Akçakaya , H.R.
, Amstrup , S.C. , Atwood , T.C.
, Lunn , N.J. , Obbard , M. , Stern , H. , Thiemann , G.W.
, & Wiig , Ø .
2016 .
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in relation to projected sea-ice declines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : //rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556 Supplementary data here .
Taylor , M.K.
, J.L .
Laake , P.D .
McLoughlin , H.D .
Cluff , and F. Messier .
2006a .
Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia , Nunavut .
Government of Nunavut , Department of Environment , Final Wildlife Report # 8 , Iqaluit .
Pdf here .
Taylor , M.K.
, Laake , J.L.
, McLoughlin , P.D.
, Cluff , H.D.
, Messier , F. 2006b .
Demographic parameters and harvest-explicit population viability analysis for polar bears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Journal of Wildlife Management 70 : 1667–1673 .
Taylor , M.K.
, Laake , J.L.
, McLoughlin , P.D.
, Cluff , H.D.
, and Messier , F. 2009 .
Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia , Nunavut .
Marine Mammal Science 25:778-796 .

Final reports for two Canadian subpopulations reveal the number of polar bears in M’Clintock Channel has more than doubled since 2000 while Gulf of Boothia as remained about the same despite moderate declines in summer sea ice cover. All of the survey results were published online yesterday (16 November 2020) and I was alerted to the posting this morning via email by a Nunavut employee.
M’Clintock Channel
2014-2016 via genetic biopsy darting
Dyck, Lukacs, and Ware (2020) summary:
Mean abundance estimate 716 (range 545 – 955) for 2014-2016.
compared to 284 (range 225-343) for 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2006), so population size more than doubled between study periods.
(range 545 – 955) for 2014-2016. compared to (range 225-343) for 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2006), so population size more than doubled between study periods. Numbers of males and females increased between study periods due to reduced hunting and ‘improved habitat quality.’
Population has recovered from previous overharvest (1970s-1990s).
M’Clintock Channel ‘Key Points’ summary here and summary pdf is here. Detailed summary here and full report pdf is here.
Sea ice decline: Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report (Regehr et al. 2016 Figure 2), summer sea ice decline for M’Clintock Channel has been similar to Foxe Basin (below). See a discussion (with references) of sea ice decline vs. documented harm to polar bears here.
Gulf of Boothia
2015-2017 via genetic biopsy darting
Dyck, Regehr, and Ware (2020) summary:
Mean abundance estimate 1525 (range 1231-1819) for 2015–2017 compared to 1592 (range 1231-1953) in 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2009), so about the same.
(range 1231-1819) for 2015–2017 compared to (range 1231-1953) in 1998-2000 (Taylor et al. 2009), so about the same. Mean litter sizes showed no trend between study periods.
Mean cub-of-the-year litter sizes were 1.61 (range 1.51 – 1.70), which is about as high as any population reported and similar to Western Hudson Bay in 2016 and Kane Basin in 2014 (Crockford 2020).
Mean yearling litter sizes were 1.53 (1.41 – 1.64).
Body condition (i.e., fatness) in the spring increased between the study periods.
Survival rate for adult females was higher than adult males (0.95 vs. 0.85).
Abundance of adult females increased from 0.57 to 0.61 between the study periods.
Population survival indicators suggest a ‘good potential for growth’.
Detailed Gulf of Boothi summary here and full report pdf is here.
Sea ice decline: Note that according to the IUCN 2015 polar bear assessment report calculations (Regehr et al. 2016 Figure 2), summer sea ice decline for Gulf of Boothia has been similar to the Southern Beaufort:
References
Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. Pdf here.
Dyck, M., Lukacs, P., and Ware, J.V. 2020. Re-estimating the abundance of a recovering polar bear subpopulation by genetic mark-recapture in M’Clintock Channel, Nunavut, Canada. Final Report, Government of Nunavut, Department of Environment, Iglulik. 29 July 2020. Pdf here.
Dyck, M., Regehr, E.V. and Ware, J.V. 2020. Assessment of Abundance for the Gulf of Boothia Polar Bear Subpopulation Using Genetic Mark-Recapture. Final Report, Government of Nunavut, Department of Environment, Iglulik. 12 June 2020. Pdf here.
Regehr, E.V., Laidre, K.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556 Supplementary data here.
Taylor, M.K., J.L. Laake, P.D. McLoughlin, H.D. Cluff, and F. Messier. 2006a. Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut. Government of Nunavut, Department of Environment, Final Wildlife Report #8, Iqaluit. Pdf here.
Taylor, M.K., Laake, J.L., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D., Messier, F. 2006b. Demographic parameters and harvest-explicit population viability analysis for polar bears in M’Clintock Channel, Nunavut. Journal of Wildlife Management 70: 1667–1673.
Taylor, M.K., Laake, J.L., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D., and Messier, F. 2009. Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut. Marine Mammal Science 25:778-796.
#gulf-of-boothia, #mclintock-channel, #polar-bear, #population-size, #survey
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November 17, 2020 at 06:48PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Children and the Insect Apocalypse

Children and the Insect Apocalypse

The American Psychological Association reports young people are suffering from “ a chronic fear of environmental doom ” .
A recent national survey reported “ eco-anxiety ” is causing 43 percent of our youth to feel hopeless .
Psychologists warn such hopelessness leads to suicide , drug addiction and anti-social behavior .
Why such eco-anxiety ?
Their hopelessness is driven solely by media narratives .
Young people lack the scientific knowledge , lack years of observation , and have yet to acquire the critical thinking skills needed to detect any ecosystem collapse .
Its headlines like the Guardian ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collapse of nature ” , that induce paranoia that “ insects are hurtling down the path to extinction , and threatening a “ catastrophic collapse of nature ’ s ecosystems ” .
In contrast , most scientists studying insects readily admit science lacks the data to make such apocalyptic claims .
Science has only identified about one million of an estimated 6 to 10 million insect species worldwide , and only a small percentage of those named species have enough data to evaluate their biology , behavior , or changes in abundance .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen a global outbreak of media headlines predicting a global insect apocalypse ” and scientists are concerned that such “ confusing and inaccurate science ” will negatively affect support for insect conservation ” .
Many have published critiques exposing “ the insect apocalypse myth.
” Worse , apocalyptic myths are damaging our children ’ s mental health .
Competing for readership with supermarket tabloids , the New York Times announced , “ The Insect Apocalypse Is Here ” .
The Guardian fearmongered , “ Insect apocalypse ’ poses risk to all life on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the requisite scientific knowledge , the United Nations invited 16-year old Greta Thunberg to lecture the world that “ entire ecosystems are collapsing .
We are in the beginning of a mass extinction ” .
How do we protect our children from succumbing to bogus “ chicken little science ” ?
We must teach them to be good critical thinkers .
My parents always warned , “ believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.
” The world ’ s oldest scientific motto advises , “ Take no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ objectivity , us scientists were advised to entertain “ multiple working hypotheses ” .
Likewise , adults must teach children to question all fearful claims .
But due to the politicization of science , many adults refuse to read anything outside their beliefs .
Many indiscriminately share catastrophic headlines without any critical analysis .
For the sake of our kids ’ mental health , many “ psychologists warn parents and guardians against being climate change alarmists.
” The apocalyptic NY Times headlines were prompted by a severely flawed German study claiming 75 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That study surveyed insects at 69 different locations , but 37 locations were surveyed only once , and 20 locations were surveyed just twice .
Such snapshots of abundance at one location in just one or two years can never determine a meaningful trend .
Never !
That ’ s bad science .
Yet the media eagerly elevated a flawed study from just one small region of Germany to suggest a global insect Armageddon .
The media simultaneously highlighted another single study by Dr Lister in a Puerto Rican forest to implicate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Researchers claimed higher local temperatures devastated insect abundance and collapsed frog and bird populations that feed on insects .
However the media ignored longer term research in the same forest that refuted the temperature claim .
It reported that after a destructive hurricane new and more edible vegetation began regenerating and enabled an abnormally higher abundance of opportunistic forest insects , frogs and birds .
Unfortunately , Lister ’ s first survey happened in the 1970s when insect populations had spiked .
His second survey happened in 2015 after the forest had matured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers .
Lister had misinterpreted half of a natural population fluctuation as a catastrophic decline driven by climate change .
Giving less attention to optimistic studies is not unusual .
Where were media headlines that moths more than doubled in Great Britain over the past 50 years ?
Why no media fanfare for the 2020 peer-reviewed study that found no change in US insect abundance since 1980 ?
That study evaluated a network of Long-Term Ecological Research sites established by the National Science Foundation .
They found at some sites insect abundance and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at other locations there was a slight decrease .
The result ?
No net change .
Although transforming natural habitat into agricultural land greatly benefitted people , it did reduce insect populations .
However due to better conservation efforts and efficient farming practices , agricultural lands that once covered 63 % of America in 1949 were reduced to 51 % by 2007 .
( Unfortunately , due to biofuel subsidies , agricultural land increased in the Corn Belt . )
Additionally , genetically modified plants continue to reduce the indiscriminate spraying of insecticides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crop dusting .
To trust the science , we must examine all the science .
We can then honestly tell our children why there ’ s great hope for our future .
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State ’ s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles : An Environmentalist ’ s Journey to Climate Skepticism

What’s Natural?
Guest post by Jim Steele
The American Psychological Association reports young people are suffering from “a chronic fear of environmental doom”. A recent national survey reported “eco-anxiety” is causing 43 percent of our youth to feel hopeless. Psychologists warn such hopelessness leads to suicide, drug addiction and anti-social behavior. Why such eco-anxiety? Their hopelessness is driven solely by media narratives. Young people lack the scientific knowledge, lack years of observation, and have yet to acquire the critical thinking skills needed to detect any ecosystem collapse. Its headlines like the Guardian’s, “Plummeting insect numbers ‘threaten collapse of nature”, that induce paranoia that “insects are hurtling down the path to extinction, and threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”.
In contrast, most scientists studying insects readily admit science lacks the data to make such apocalyptic claims. Science has only identified about one million of an estimated 6 to 10 million insect species worldwide, and only a small percentage of those named species have enough data to evaluate their biology, behavior, or changes in abundance. Nonetheless “the last 3 years have seen a global outbreak of media headlines predicting a global insect apocalypse” and scientists are concerned that such “confusing and inaccurate science” will negatively affect support for insect conservation”. Many have published critiques exposing “the insect apocalypse myth.”
Worse, apocalyptic myths are damaging our children’s mental health. Competing for readership with supermarket tabloids, the New York Times announced, “The Insect Apocalypse Is Here”. The Guardian fearmongered, “Insect apocalypse’ poses risk to all life on Earth”. And despite her lack of the requisite scientific knowledge, the United Nations invited 16-year old Greta Thunberg to lecture the world that “entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction”.
How do we protect our children from succumbing to bogus “chicken little science”? We must teach them to be good critical thinkers. My parents always warned, “believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.” The world’s oldest scientific motto advises, “Take no one’s word.” To maintain objectivity, us scientists were advised to entertain “multiple working hypotheses”. Likewise, adults must teach children to question all fearful claims. But due to the politicization of science, many adults refuse to read anything outside their beliefs. Many indiscriminately share catastrophic headlines without any critical analysis. For the sake of our kids’ mental health, many “psychologists warn parents and guardians against being climate change alarmists.”
The apocalyptic NY Times headlines were prompted by a severely flawed German study claiming 75% of flying insects declined in 27 years. That study surveyed insects at 69 different locations, but 37 locations were surveyed only once, and 20 locations were surveyed just twice. Such snapshots of abundance at one location in just one or two years can never determine a meaningful trend. Never! That’s bad science. Yet the media eagerly elevated a flawed study from just one small region of Germany to suggest a global insect Armageddon.
The media simultaneously highlighted another single study by Dr Lister in a Puerto Rican forest to implicate a “global climate crisis”. Researchers claimed higher local temperatures devastated insect abundance and collapsed frog and bird populations that feed on insects. However the media ignored longer term research in the same forest that refuted the temperature claim. It reported that after a destructive hurricane new and more edible vegetation began regenerating and enabled an abnormally higher abundance of opportunistic forest insects, frogs and birds. Unfortunately, Lister’s first survey happened in the 1970s when insect populations had spiked. His second survey happened in 2015 after the forest had matured and insect abundance dropped to normal pre-hurricane numbers. Lister had misinterpreted half of a natural population fluctuation as a catastrophic decline driven by climate change.
Giving less attention to optimistic studies is not unusual. Where were media headlines that moths more than doubled in Great Britain over the past 50 years? Why no media fanfare for the 2020 peer-reviewed study that found no change in US insect abundance since 1980? That study evaluated a network of Long-Term Ecological Research sites established by the National Science Foundation. They found at some sites insect abundance and diversity increased or was unchanged, while at other locations there was a slight decrease. The result? No net change.
Although transforming natural habitat into agricultural land greatly benefitted people, it did reduce insect populations. However due to better conservation efforts and efficient farming practices, agricultural lands that once covered 63% of America in 1949 were reduced to 51% by 2007. (Unfortunately, due to biofuel subsidies, agricultural land increased in the Corn Belt.) Additionally, genetically modified plants continue to reduce the indiscriminate spraying of insecticides once practiced in the days of aerial crop dusting.
To trust the science, we must examine all the science. We can then honestly tell our children why there’s great hope for our future.
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
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“Scientists Say”

“ Scientists say ” that sea level is rising faster than at any time in the last 2,800 years .
@ @ @ @ @ than they have in 2,800 years , scientists say – The Washington Post The 1990 @ @ @ @ @ Continue reading →

“Scientists say” that sea level is rising faster than at any time in the last 2,800 years. Seas are now rising faster than they have in 2,800 years, scientists say – The Washington Post The 1990 IPCC report said there … Continue reading →
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November 17, 2020 at 03:45PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--Huge eruption of Italian volcano – Video

An explosion on the slopes of Stromboli propelled an avalanche of hot ash and gases down the side of the Italian volcano on Monday ( Nov. 16 ) .
The stronger-than-usual explosion was captured on cameras operated by the Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia ( INGV ) .
Imagery shared by shows the eruption in real-time ; video captured by infrared cameras that shows the ultra-hot initial eruption and the slightly cooler cloud of ash and gases careening downslope .
This avalanche of hot ash and gases is known as pyroclastic flow .
This is the second above-average explosion on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the evening of Nov. 10 , captured another large eruption at the volcano .
Thanks to Gordon Broussard for this link “ Stromboli is the northeastern most of the Aeolian Islands , ” says John Search on his website VolcanoLive .
“ Stromboli volcano has one of the world ’ s longest recorded periods of activity.
” http : //volcanolive.com/stromboli.html The Aeolian Islands , in turn , are located in the Tyrrhenian Sea north of Sicily .
The Aeolian Islands are named after the demigod of the winds Aeolus .
The islands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The islands are sometimes referred to as the Lipari Islands or Lipari group after their largest island .
https : //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolian_Islands The post Huge eruption of Italian volcano – Video appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Stronger-than-usual explosion.
An explosion on the slopes of Stromboli propelled an avalanche of hot ash and gases down the side of the Italian volcano on Monday (Nov. 16).
The stronger-than-usual explosion was captured on cameras operated by the Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Imagery shared by Il Mondo dei Terremoti on Twitter shows the eruption in real-time; video captured by infrared cameras that shows the ultra-hot initial eruption and the slightly cooler cloud of ash and gases careening downslope. This avalanche of hot ash and gases is known as pyroclastic flow.
.
This is the second above-average explosion on Stromboli in the past two weeks. On the evening of Nov. 10, INGV’s cameras captured another large eruption at the volcano.
See more:
https://www.livescience.com/stromboli-eruption-huge-pyroclastic-flow.html
Thanks to Gordon Broussard for this link
“Stromboli is the northeastern most of the Aeolian Islands,” says John Search on his website VolcanoLive. “Stromboli volcano has one of the world’s longest recorded periods of activity.”
http://volcanolive.com/stromboli.html
The Aeolian Islands, in turn, are located in the Tyrrhenian Sea north of Sicily. The Aeolian Islands are named after the demigod of the winds Aeolus. The islands’ inhabitants are known as Aeolians. The islands are sometimes referred to as the Lipari Islands or Lipari group after their largest island.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolian_Islands
The post Huge eruption of Italian volcano – Video appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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November 17, 2020 at 02:31PM