iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-25--Examining The Science And The Possible Origin of The ‘New Strain’ Of Covid-19

After claiming that cancelling Christmas would be “ inhuman ” , Scrooge Johnson promptly cancelled Christmas .
Then Hancock cancelled Boxing Day just to make sure .
Why ?
Because of a supposedly “ 70 % more transmissible ” new strain of Covid which was spreading like wildfire in London and Kent – and now it seems , Norfolk , Cambridgeshire , Essex and Oxforshire .
Next year it will probably be everywhere and we ’ ll all have to suffer the economic and social catastrophe of Tier 4 lockdowns until we beg to be vaccinated ( and probably long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given to this ‘ new strain ’ is VUI 202012/01 ( Variant Under Investigation , year 2020 , month 12 , variant 01 ) , or B.1.1.7 .
Firstly , as the name suggests , it ’ s not a ‘ new strain ’ , it ’ s a new variant – and it ’ s not that new .
It was first reported in mid October when two samples from Kent and London sent to the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab were genetically sequenced by COG-UK .
The dates of the samples were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ September ( London ) .
Nothing much seems to be known about these ‘ patients ’ .
Were they asymptomatic ( tested in the community ) or did they have symptoms or were they in hospital ?
I can find no information at present .
Had they recently arrived from abroad ?
That would mean the origin of the new variant might not even be the UK .
Who knows .
The other thing is , it ’ s not a ‘ new strain ’ as claimed by our clueless politicians and media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would have to have conclusively demonstrated a distinct clinical difference from other dominant strains in circulation , i.e .
increased transmissibility and/or enhanced or even lower virulence .
So far , despite the claims by NERVTAG and the government , no such evidence has been demonstrated .
The claim of ‘ 70 % more transmissible ’ is based on modelling and is not backed up by hard data .
This virology Professor explains in detail why he is not too worried by the new variant and why the claims by NERVTAG and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up by hard science and data .
It ’ s a pretty damning video .
He forensically dismantles the claims made by NERVTAG about this being a distinct new strain which has gained an evolutionary advantage over other , less contagious strains , basically stating that you can not infer biological properties of a virus from limited epidemiological data only and that you must perform experiments in the field .
For example , the apparent rapid spread of this new variant may simply be down to super-spreader events as it is well known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 10 % of infectious individuals .
He also goes through all the changes in the genome which are incorrectly called ‘ mutations ’ – even by the experts – and points out that the ORF8 changes may actually mean that this variant is less virulent .
So even if it does turn out to be more contagious and does spread through the community , it may actually be a good thing because it will mean that a greater number of people become infected at less risk and natural herd immunity is attained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t see it this way of course .
Nor does the WHO .
It ’ s just an excuse to keep us all locked up for longer , with even more restrictions upon our personal liberty until we are forced to accept vaccination for a disease which to the vast majority does not present a major threat and is about 99.96 % survivable .
Ferguson doesn ’ t see it that way either .
He was supposed to have resigned from all government advisory roles after he broke the rules of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back in May .
But he has now popped back up in NERVTAG and suddenly he ’ s the darling of the media again and the government are hanging on his every word .
He ’ s warning us about the ‘ threat ’ of this new variant being transmitted by schoolchildren , bringing kids further under the jackboot of the psychopaths who are intent on controlling our lives .
So don ’ t be surprised if schools are closed in a new lockdown in January on the ‘ recommendation ’ of Pants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a turd which just can not be flushed .
The very same Ferguson responsible for the unnecessary slaughter of millions of innocent farm animals in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic and who predicted 150,000 deaths from BSE , among other catastrophic failures .
Being wrong is his speciality it seems , an expertise which apparently qualifies him to give advice to the government on policies which affect all our lives , including voicing his opinion on how other peoples ’ kids should have their lives seriously disrupted yet again .
Something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and which is pertinent is the fact that this new variant has a large number of changes and deletions in the genome ( 14 changes and 3 deletions ) which , on the face of it , mark it out as unique .
They all ‘ appeared ’ at once , which is ‘ unprecedented ’ , given the estimated mutation rate of approximately 1 or 2 per month .
Lots of ‘ mutations ’ have been tracked , but never have 17 been recorded simultaneously in a newly discovered variant .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8 changes occur in the critical spike region of the virus , when only 44 have been recorded previously .
So it is perhaps unsurprising that the appearance of this new variant and its apparent rapid spread has caused some to worry , but is that concern justified enough to further destroy people ’ s lives ?
I think not and I will attempt to explain why not .
When I say lots of mutations have been tracked I do mean lots ; in fact 12,706 ‘ mutations ’ up until 21 September @ @ @ @ @ @ @ none of those mutations have proven to have had any significant effect upon transmissibility or pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 .
It ’ s a rather odd coincidence that this paper , published on 25th November , authored by our old friend Francois Balloux and others , only covers up to the exact date that the new variant was discovered in Kent and London .
So presumably , the ‘ new strain of Covid ’ is not included in this analysis .
But here is what the study says : The most plausible mutations under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerged repeatedly and independently ( homoplasies ) .
Here , we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission .
To do so , we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele .
We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide .
We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing , rather than being signatures of adaptation .
We informally estimated the mutation rate over our alignment as 9.8 × 10−4 substitutions per site per year , which is consistent with previous rates estimated for SARS-CoV-21,2,3,4 ( Figs .
S1 and S2 ) .
This rate also falls in line with those observed in other coronaviruses25,26 and is fairly unremarkable relative to other positive single-stranded RNA viruses , which do not have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set , we identified a total of 12,706 mutations , heavily enriched in C→U transitions , of which we identified 398 strongly supported recurrent mutations ( Supplementary Data 3 and Supplementary Figs .
4 and 5 ) .
Employing a phylogenetic index ( RoHO ) to test whether these recurrent mutations contribute to a change in transmission , we found no candidate convincingly associated with a significant increase or decrease in transmissibility ( Figs .
2 and 3 and Supplementary Data 4 ) .
A much discussed mutation in the context of demographic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , a non-synonymous change in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein .
Korber et al .
suggested that D614G increases transmissibility but with no measurable effect on patient infection outcome21 .
Other studies have suggested associations with increased infectivity in vitro18,40 and antigenicity41 .
Here we conversely find that D614G does not associate with significantly increased viral transmission ( median log ( RoHO ) = 0 , paired t test p = 0.28 ; Supplementary Data 4 ) , in line with our results for all other tested recurrent mutations .
These apparently contrasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What is , however , indisputable is that D614G emerged early in the pandemic and is now found at high frequency globally , with 36,347 assemblies in our data set ( 77.8 % ) carrying the derived allele ( Fig .
1a and Supplementary Data 3 ) .
However , D614G is also in linkage disequilibrium ( LD ) with three other derived mutations ( nucleotide positions 241 , 3037 , and 14,408 ) that have experienced highly similar expansions , as 98.9 % of accessions with D614G also carry these derived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be noted that the D614G mutation displays only five independent emergences that qualify for inclusion in our analyses ( fewer than the other three sites it is associated with ) .
While this limits our power to detect a statistically significant association with transmissibility , the low number of independent emergences suggests to us that the abundance of D614G is more probably a demographic artefact : D614G went up in frequency as the SARS-CoV-2 population expanded , largely due to a founder effect originating from one of the deepest branches in the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of transmission itself .
To summarise , what Balloux et al are saying is that they ’ ve examined thousands of changes in the genome of SARS-CoV-2 since it first emerged and they have found none that significantly alter the biology of the virus in terms of transmissibility or pathogenicity .
One ‘ mutation ’ in the spke protein , D614G , which first appeared in February , was thought to increase transmissibility and virulence but turned out to be largely neutral and its spread around the globe was attributed largely to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discusses in the video above .
Matt Ridley has a opinion piece in the Telegraph on the subject of this new variant and he makes much of the fact that it suddenly appeared with an unprecedented number of mutations , suggesting , he says , that those mutations occurred artificially , not randomly , like the 12,706 mutations which Balloux et al analysed .
He tends to paint an alarming picture : As Matt points out , he is referring to a theory of the origin of this new variant put forward by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh , in conjunction with the Universities of Birmingham , Oxford , Imperial College , Cambridge , Cardiff , The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research .
What they say is this : What evolutionary processes or selective pressures might have given rise to lineage B.1.1.7 ?
High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 ( Choi et al .
2020 ; Avanzato @ @ @ @ @ @ @ al .
2020 ) .
These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer ( although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals ) .
The patients are treated with convalescent plasma ( sometimes more than once ) and usually also with the drug remdesivir .
Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes .
Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high , and Kemp et @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given .
Under such circumstances , the evolutionary dynamics of and selective pressures upon the intra-patient virus population are expected to be very different to those experienced in typical infection .
First , selection from natural immune responses in immune-deficient/suppressed patients will be weak or absent .
Second , the selection arising from antibody therapy may be strong due to high antibody concentrations .
Third , if antibody therapy is administered after many weeks of chronic infection , the virus population may be unusually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that antibody-mediated selective pressure is applied , creating suitable circumstances for the rapid fixation of multiple virus genetic changes through direct selection and genetic hitchhiking .
These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted , at least in part , from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual .
Although such infections are rare , and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer , they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections .
Although we speculate here that chronic infection played @ @ @ @ @ @ @ B.1.1.7 variant , this remains a hypothesis and we can not yet infer the precise nature of this event .
It ’ s basically just a speculative hypothesis about the origin of the ‘ new strain ’ .
By their own admission , they don ’ t have any solid evidence it would seem and it would also appear to be the case that the two people who initially tested positive for this ‘ new strain ’ are not immuno-compromised patients who have suffered Covid for a long period , otherwise we would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m sure .
The authors refer to several examples of enhanced viral evolution in immuno-compromised patients to back up their theory and there is an example of an immuno-compromised patient suffering recurrent bouts of Covid-19 over several months who sadly died .
A series of changes in the genome of the virus were observed over the course of the treatment , but they appear to be nothing like the changes recorded for this new variant , so obviously , this particular patient was not the source of the new variant .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a possibility that the new variant may have arisen as a result of prolonged treatment of an immuno-compromised patient , in the absence of any patient fitting the profile , it remains just a theory .
The actual origin of these synchronously appearing ‘ mutations ’ thus remains a mystery .
It ’ s a possibility but we can not definitely blame plasma convalescent therapy for the emergence of this new variant .
So what else might explain where it came from ?
We maybe have a clue as to the origins of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Well , sorry , but “ It ’ s sort of come out of nowhere ” is not adequate .
We need explanations , if only tentative explanations .
It ’ s the first time apparently , as noted above , that a virus has been discovered with so many ( 17 ) changes in the genome .
These changes accumulate slowly in SARS-CoV-2 at a rate of 1-2 per month and none have so far proved to be significant in terms of transmission or virulence .
So if these changes happened naturally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the question arises as to how they managed to remain unobserved until September 20th ?
The first thing to note is that COG-UK first started sequencing Covid viruses back in March 2020 .
It should be pointed out though that until July , all sequenced positive samples were from the limited number of Pillar 1 tests in hospitals .
So initially , not many samples were being sequenced .
Then Pillar 2 testing got going and the number of tests rose rapidly from July onwards , as did the number of positives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of positives , more and more samples were sent for sequencing .
I believe at some point , the Wellcome-Sanger Institute ( who do a lot of the sequencing for COG-UK ) automated their processes so they could handle a lot more samples .
Also , when national and international travel restrictions were relaxed in July and August , there appeared many more SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the UK , which most likely were imported from other countries .
This analysis from the Welsh Government confirms that fact : So , after the initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they tailed off into late spring/early summer , then genetic diversity increased once again going into late summer/early autumn , as people jetted off on their holidays and returned to the UK .
Concurrent with that , we have a large increase in the number of sequencing being done from positive tests across the UK .
Is it beyond the realms of possibility that the variant discovered with 17 ‘ mutations ’ in Kent and London in mid October , from samples donated at the end of September , could have arrived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evolved naturally in another country , unnoticed , because that particular country was doing very little sequencing ?
Those two people carrying the virus get tested , their samples get sequenced by COG-UK and hey presto , a ‘ new variant ’ with an ‘ unprecedented number of ‘ mutations ’ suddenly appears .
A few months later , when it starts spreading in the community , for reasons which may have nothing whatsoever to do with the claimed ‘ 70 % increased transmissibility ’ , Johnson , Hancock , Ferguson , Whitty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a winner and use the new ‘ mutant Covid strain ’ as a perfect excuse to cancel Christmas in the UK with just a few days ’ notice .

After claiming that cancelling Christmas would be “inhuman”, Scrooge Johnson promptly cancelled Christmas. Then Hancock cancelled Boxing Day just to make sure. Why? Because of a supposedly “70% more transmissible” new strain of Covid which was spreading like wildfire in London and Kent – and now it seems, Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, Essex and Oxforshire. Next year it will probably be everywhere and we’ll all have to suffer the economic and social catastrophe of Tier 4 lockdowns until we beg to be vaccinated (and probably long after that too). The name given to this ‘new strain’ is VUI 202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation, year 2020, month 12, variant 01), or B.1.1.7. Firstly, as the name suggests, it’s not a ‘new strain’, it’s a new variant – and it’s not that new. It was first reported in mid October when two samples from Kent and London sent to the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab were genetically sequenced by COG-UK. The dates of the samples were 20th September (Kent) and 21st September (London). Nothing much seems to be known about these ‘patients’. Were they asymptomatic (tested in the community) or did they have symptoms or were they in hospital? I can find no information at present. Had they recently arrived from abroad? That would mean the origin of the new variant might not even be the UK. Who knows.
The other thing is, it’s not a ‘new strain’ as claimed by our clueless politicians and media. To qualify for that status, it would have to have conclusively demonstrated a distinct clinical difference from other dominant strains in circulation, i.e. increased transmissibility and/or enhanced or even lower virulence. So far, despite the claims by NERVTAG and the government, no such evidence has been demonstrated. The claim of ‘70% more transmissible’ is based on modelling and is not backed up by hard data. This virology Professor explains in detail why he is not too worried by the new variant and why the claims by NERVTAG and the government are scare-mongering hype not backed up by hard science and data.
It’s a pretty damning video. He forensically dismantles the claims made by NERVTAG about this being a distinct new strain which has gained an evolutionary advantage over other, less contagious strains, basically stating that you cannot infer biological properties of a virus from limited epidemiological data only and that you must perform experiments in the field. For example, the apparent rapid spread of this new variant may simply be down to super-spreader events as it is well known that 80% of transmissions are caused by 10% of infectious individuals. He also goes through all the changes in the genome which are incorrectly called ‘mutations’ – even by the experts – and points out that the ORF8 changes may actually mean that this variant is less virulent. So even if it does turn out to be more contagious and does spread through the community, it may actually be a good thing because it will mean that a greater number of people become infected at less risk and natural herd immunity is attained that much quicker.
The government doesn’t see it this way of course. Nor does the WHO. It’s just an excuse to keep us all locked up for longer, with even more restrictions upon our personal liberty until we are forced to accept vaccination for a disease which to the vast majority does not present a major threat and is about 99.96% survivable. Ferguson doesn’t see it that way either. He was supposed to have resigned from all government advisory roles after he broke the rules of the lockdown which he was instrumental in implementing back in May. But he has now popped back up in NERVTAG and suddenly he’s the darling of the media again and the government are hanging on his every word. He’s warning us about the ‘threat’ of this new variant being transmitted by schoolchildren, bringing kids further under the jackboot of the psychopaths who are intent on controlling our lives. So don’t be surprised if schools are closed in a new lockdown in January on the ‘recommendation’ of Pants Down Ferguson who, it seems, is a turd which just cannot be flushed. The very same Ferguson responsible for the unnecessary slaughter of millions of innocent farm animals in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic and who predicted 150,000 deaths from BSE, among other catastrophic failures. Being wrong is his speciality it seems, an expertise which apparently qualifies him to give advice to the government on policies which affect all our lives, including voicing his opinion on how other peoples’ kids should have their lives seriously disrupted yet again.
Something which Prof. Vincent Racaniello neglected to mention and which is pertinent is the fact that this new variant has a large number of changes and deletions in the genome (14 changes and 3 deletions) which, on the face of it, mark it out as unique. They all ‘appeared’ at once, which is ‘unprecedented’, given the estimated mutation rate of approximately 1 or 2 per month. Lots of ‘mutations’ have been tracked, but never have 17 been recorded simultaneously in a newly discovered variant. It is also notable that a total of 8 changes occur in the critical spike region of the virus, when only 44 have been recorded previously. So it is perhaps unsurprising that the appearance of this new variant and its apparent rapid spread has caused some to worry, but is that concern justified enough to further destroy people’s lives? I think not and I will attempt to explain why not.
When I say lots of mutations have been tracked I do mean lots; in fact 12,706 ‘mutations’ up until 21 September 2020. What is remarkable is that none of those mutations have proven to have had any significant effect upon transmissibility or pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2. It’s a rather odd coincidence that this paper, published on 25th November, authored by our old friend Francois Balloux and others, only covers up to the exact date that the new variant was discovered in Kent and London. So presumably, the ‘new strain of Covid’ is not included in this analysis. But here is what the study says:
The most plausible mutations under putative natural selection are those which have emerged repeatedly and independently (homoplasies). Here, we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission. To do so, we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaptation. We informally estimated the mutation rate over our alignment as 9.8 × 10−4 substitutions per site per year, which is consistent with previous rates estimated for SARS-CoV-21,2,3,4 (Figs. S1 and S2). This rate also falls in line with those observed in other coronaviruses25,26 and is fairly unremarkable relative to other positive single-stranded RNA viruses, which do not have a viral proof-reading mechanism. Across our data set, we identified a total of 12,706 mutations, heavily enriched in C→U transitions, of which we identified 398 strongly supported recurrent mutations (Supplementary Data 3 and Supplementary Figs. 4 and 5). Employing a phylogenetic index (RoHO) to test whether these recurrent mutations contribute to a change in transmission, we found no candidate convincingly associated with a significant increase or decrease in transmissibility (Figs. 2 and 3 and Supplementary Data 4). A much discussed mutation in the context of demographic confounding is D614G (nucleotide position 23,403), a non-synonymous change in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein. Korber et al. suggested that D614G increases transmissibility but with no measurable effect on patient infection outcome21. Other studies have suggested associations with increased infectivity in vitro18,40 and antigenicity41. Here we conversely find that D614G does not associate with significantly increased viral transmission (median log 10 (RoHO) = 0, paired t test p = 0.28; Supplementary Data 4), in line with our results for all other tested recurrent mutations. These apparently contrasting results for D614G should be considered carefully. What is, however, indisputable is that D614G emerged early in the pandemic and is now found at high frequency globally, with 36,347 assemblies in our data set (77.8%) carrying the derived allele (Fig. 1a and Supplementary Data 3). However, D614G is also in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with three other derived mutations (nucleotide positions 241, 3037, and 14,408) that have experienced highly similar expansions, as 98.9% of accessions with D614G also carry these derived alleles (35,954/36,347). It should be noted that the D614G mutation displays only five independent emergences that qualify for inclusion in our analyses (fewer than the other three sites it is associated with). While this limits our power to detect a statistically significant association with transmissibility, the low number of independent emergences suggests to us that the abundance of D614G is more probably a demographic artefact: D614G went up in frequency as the SARS-CoV-2 population expanded, largely due to a founder effect originating from one of the deepest branches in the global phylogeny, rather than being a driver of transmission itself.
To summarise, what Balloux et al are saying is that they’ve examined thousands of changes in the genome of SARS-CoV-2 since it first emerged and they have found none that significantly alter the biology of the virus in terms of transmissibility or pathogenicity. One ‘mutation’ in the spke protein, D614G, which first appeared in February, was thought to increase transmissibility and virulence but turned out to be largely neutral and its spread around the globe was attributed largely to the Founder Effect, which Prof . Racaniello discusses in the video above.
Matt Ridley has a opinion piece in the Telegraph on the subject of this new variant and he makes much of the fact that it suddenly appeared with an unprecedented number of mutations, suggesting, he says, that those mutations occurred artificially, not randomly, like the 12,706 mutations which Balloux et al analysed. He tends to paint an alarming picture:
This number of changes would normally take months to emerge at the rate the virus typically evolves: it is less prone to random mutation than an influenza virus. What caused such a burst of evolution within perhaps a single body? Here the story gets alarming. According to analysis by Andrew Rambaut at Edinburgh University and colleagues for the Covid-19 Genomics Consortium UK, such high rates of mutation have happened in people with suppressed immune systems who get a Covid infection that persists for months and are treated with “convalescent plasma” – essentially blood extracted from those who have recovered from Covid. In a person with a deficient immune system, a large population of viruses can proliferate, mutate and diversify, and then the treatment selects a new strain from among this diversity. Essentially, the virus has a crash course in evolution. If so, this casts doubt on the wisdom of convalescent-plasma treatment, pitting the possibility that it might save a life against the possibility that it might help the virus become more infectious or lethal.
As Matt points out, he is referring to a theory of the origin of this new variant put forward by a team of academics lead by Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, in conjunction with the Universities of Birmingham, Oxford, Imperial College, Cambridge, Cardiff, The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research. What they say is this:
What evolutionary processes or selective pressures might have given rise to lineage B.1.1.7?
High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given. Under such circumstances, the evolutionary dynamics of and selective pressures upon the intra-patient virus population are expected to be very different to those experienced in typical infection. First, selection from natural immune responses in immune-deficient/suppressed patients will be weak or absent. Second, the selection arising from antibody therapy may be strong due to high antibody concentrations. Third, if antibody therapy is administered after many weeks of chronic infection, the virus population may be unusually large and genetically diverse at the time that antibody-mediated selective pressure is applied, creating suitable circumstances for the rapid fixation of multiple virus genetic changes through direct selection and genetic hitchhiking. These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. Although we speculate here that chronic infection played a role in the origins of the B.1.1.7 variant, this remains a hypothesis and we cannot yet infer the precise nature of this event.
It’s basically just a speculative hypothesis about the origin of the ‘new strain’. By their own admission, they don’t have any solid evidence it would seem and it would also appear to be the case that the two people who initially tested positive for this ‘new strain’ are not immuno-compromised patients who have suffered Covid for a long period, otherwise we would have heard about it now, I’m sure. The authors refer to several examples of enhanced viral evolution in immuno-compromised patients to back up their theory and there is an example of an immuno-compromised patient suffering recurrent bouts of Covid-19 over several months who sadly died. A series of changes in the genome of the virus were observed over the course of the treatment, but they appear to be nothing like the changes recorded for this new variant, so obviously, this particular patient was not the source of the new variant. I quote:
Phylogenetic analysis was consistent with persistent infection and accelerated viral evolution (Figures 1A and S6). Amino acid changes were predominantly in the spike gene and the receptor-binding domain, which make up 13% and 2% of the viral genome, respectively, but harbored 57% and 38% of the observed changes (Figure 1B). Although most immunocompromised persons effectively clear SARS-CoV-2 infection, this case highlights the potential for persistent infection5 and accelerated viral evolution associated with an immunocompromised state.
So, though it is a possibility that the new variant may have arisen as a result of prolonged treatment of an immuno-compromised patient, in the absence of any patient fitting the profile, it remains just a theory. The actual origin of these synchronously appearing ‘mutations’ thus remains a mystery. It’s a possibility but we cannot definitely blame plasma convalescent therapy for the emergence of this new variant. So what else might explain where it came from?
We maybe have a clue as to the origins of this virus from the following article:
After the first official records of the virus in September, progress was slow, and it wasn’t until England’s second wave took hold in late October that cases exploded. This, scientists say, could be because the virus strain is faster spreading and made cases rise quicker – or it could be that it was simply found more often as cases surged naturally. At the time of the first sample the UK was averaging just 3,700 positive coronavirus tests per day. By the start of November, when samples were coming in thick and fast, the average number of positive results had skyrocketed to 23,000 per day. Professor Loman said there was ‘no evidence’ the strain had come from any other countries, adding: ‘It’s sort of come out of nowhere. ‘We have a long gap between the first cases we saw with this variant in late September [and recent surge in cases]… It’s more likely to have evolved in the UK but we don’t know that. ‘There are very few examples of this variant in other countries at the moment – it’s really a kind of UK phenomenon.’
Well, sorry, but “It’s sort of come out of nowhere” is not adequate. We need explanations, if only tentative explanations. It’s the first time apparently, as noted above, that a virus has been discovered with so many (17) changes in the genome. These changes accumulate slowly in SARS-CoV-2 at a rate of 1-2 per month and none have so far proved to be significant in terms of transmission or virulence. So if these changes happened naturally, they might have taken several months and the question arises as to how they managed to remain unobserved until September 20th?
The first thing to note is that COG-UK first started sequencing Covid viruses back in March 2020. It should be pointed out though that until July, all sequenced positive samples were from the limited number of Pillar 1 tests in hospitals. So initially, not many samples were being sequenced. Then Pillar 2 testing got going and the number of tests rose rapidly from July onwards, as did the number of positives. In concert with the rising number of positives, more and more samples were sent for sequencing. I believe at some point, the Wellcome-Sanger Institute (who do a lot of the sequencing for COG-UK) automated their processes so they could handle a lot more samples. Also, when national and international travel restrictions were relaxed in July and August, there appeared many more SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the UK, which most likely were imported from other countries. This analysis from the Welsh Government confirms that fact:
While we have seen increases over the summer, the numbers of UK lineages remain less than in mid-March. The graphs demonstrate the two types of lineage that are currently causing disease in Wales. Firstly, UK lineages such as UK5 and UK2243 have been long term causes of disease in Wales. UK5 is the largest UK lineage and was probably introduced into the UK multiple times in February/March, and became rapidly established in community transmission. As one of the largest lineages, it has continued to transmit in the community as other smaller lineages have died out. Secondly, we see a new wave of lineages arriving in Wales over the summer. Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So, after the initial epidemic, which saw many different lineages, they tailed off into late spring/early summer, then genetic diversity increased once again going into late summer/early autumn, as people jetted off on their holidays and returned to the UK. Concurrent with that, we have a large increase in the number of sequencing being done from positive tests across the UK. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that the variant discovered with 17 ‘mutations’ in Kent and London in mid October, from samples donated at the end of September, could have arrived in the UK during September and have evolved naturally in another country, unnoticed, because that particular country was doing very little sequencing? Those two people carrying the virus get tested, their samples get sequenced by COG-UK and hey presto, a ‘new variant’ with an ‘unprecedented number of ‘mutations’ suddenly appears. A few months later, when it starts spreading in the community, for reasons which may have nothing whatsoever to do with the claimed ‘70% increased transmissibility’, Johnson, Hancock, Ferguson, Whitty and Vallance realise they’re onto a winner and use the new ‘mutant Covid strain’ as a perfect excuse to cancel Christmas in the UK with just a few days’ notice.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-25--Christmas in Florida: Chilly forecast, falling iguanas

ORLANDO , Fla. ( AP ) — With unexpectedly cold weather in the forecast and pandemic-related curfews in some places , Florida is about to have a Christmas unlike any other in recent memory , and it may involve falling iguanas .
The National Weather Service earlier this week warned that South Florida could experience the coldest Christmas Day in 21 years .
Morning lows on Saturday could drop into the low 30s and 40s degrees Fahrenheit , the weather service said .
“ Brrr !
Much colder temps expected for Christmas , ” the National Weather Service in Miami @ @ @ @ @ @ @ iguanas are possible.
” Because they are cold-blooded reptiles , iguanas living in South Florida trees often become immobile in chilly weather , causing them to drop to the ground when the thermometer plummets , though they are still alive .
In Jacksonville , the temperature was expected to drop 50 degrees , from about 80 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday to around 30 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday , putting it on the path to being one of the five coldest Christmas Days on record , according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fast-moving winds also was headed for north Florida on Christmas Eve .

From the AP
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — With unexpectedly cold weather in the forecast and pandemic-related curfews in some places, Florida is about to have a Christmas unlike any other in recent memory, and it may involve falling iguanas.
The National Weather Service earlier this week warned that South Florida could experience the coldest Christmas Day in 21 years. Morning lows on Saturday could drop into the low 30s and 40s degrees Fahrenheit, the weather service said.
“ Brrr! Much colder temps expected for Christmas,” the National Weather Service in Miami tweeted earlier this week. “Falling iguanas are possible.”
Because they are cold-blooded reptiles, iguanas living in South Florida trees often become immobile in chilly weather, causing them to drop to the ground when the thermometer plummets, though they are still alive.
In Jacksonville, the temperature was expected to drop 50 degrees, from about 80 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday to around 30 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday, putting it on the path to being one of the five coldest Christmas Days on record, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
A squall line with severe storms and fast-moving winds also was headed for north Florida on Christmas Eve.
Full report here
HT/Willis E
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Merry Christmas

I know that a huge , huge number of people around the world have not had a very good year @ @ @ @ @ ) , but I hope you are finding ways to enjoy at least this one @ @ @ @ @ post Merry Christmas appeared first on Ice Age Now .

I know that a huge, huge number of people around the world have not had a very good year ( what an understatement! ), but I hope you are finding ways to enjoy at least this one day.
– Robert
The post Merry Christmas appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 25, 2020 at 11:55AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-25--Stuttgart Air Quality Measurements Show Diesel Engine Bans Have Had No Impact!

With a Corona lockdown in Stuttgart and diesel engine bans , one would think the fewer diesel cars on the streets would lead to less air pollutants .
But far from it !
Air measurement values remain unchanged through the significantly reduced traffic volume !
The article first appeared at TE here , hat-tip EIKE .
( Translated/edited by P. Gosselin ) Diesel car driving bans together with the reduced car traffic caused by the lockdown have shown to have had no effect on the values provided by air measuring stations .
The diagrams for nitrogen dioxide of the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 and 50 µg/m3 .
Germany ’ s most famous measuring station , the Stuttgarter Tal Am Neckartor , showed a nitrogen particulates concentration of 44 µg/m3 at 10 a.m. on Dec. 21st .
Similarly , NO2 emissions at the monitoring station in Bad Cannstatt fluctuated about 40 µg/m3 .
Incidentally , the 12-month mean value there is given as 23 µg/m3 , i.e .
well below the applicable limit values : 40 µg/m3 for the annual average , 80 µg/m3 for indoor areas , and as much as 950 µg/m3 at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 100 µg/m3 , limits are even more than twice as high as on German roads .
Daily NO2 particulates measurements at Stuttgart Am Neckartor .
Values fluctuated about 50 µg/m3 , well below the 200 µg/m3 limit .
This is also the result reached by measurement specialist Martin Schraag , who has also compared the values with the reduced traffic flow .
He summarizes : “ The daily pattern of the traffic measuring points Am Neckartor and Pragstraße has practically not changed since the lockdown started ” on December 16th .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Pragsattel , the peak occurred on Dec. 18 at 5 p.m. after the lockdown had started .
Otherwise , we see values fluctuating around 40 µg/m³ here as well , with typical maxima occurring at 5 p.m. ” Schraag comments on the far-reaching driving bans in Stuttgart : In addition to the lockdown , Stuttgart has probably the most extensive driving bans in German cities : diesel vehicles of the Euro 3 and 4 standard have not been allowed to enter the capital of Baden-Württemberg since January 1 , 2019 .
Affected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some particularly busy streets in the city center as in other cities , the ban zone extends to Kornwestheim , Gerlingen and applies to the suburbs , which are located up on the Fildern – rather rural areas with lesser development .
Even new Euro-5 diesels have been banned from downtown Stuttgart since July 1 , 2020 .
The reason for the bans given by Baden-Württemberg ’ s Transport Minister Winfried Herrmann ( Green Party ) was that the underlying calculation models were very good .
He also used the not particularly accurate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recorders – a continuously measuring station had only existed there since October – and a computed projection for the year 2021 as justification for barring Euro-5 diesel from Stuttgart .
In doing so , he ignored the fact that the new Rosenstein Tunnel would transfer considerable traffic flows underground from 2021 onwards and would make a significant contribution to relieving traffic on the Pragstrasse .
The city of Stuttgart had even described this in its clean air plan some time ago .
Forcing drivers out of their cars The head of the Deutsche @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Association ) and frequent flyer Jürgen Resch has also been overrunning Stuttgart with lawsuits because the extremely low limit values were being exceeded .
Only driving bans for diesel vehicles could lower the values and save human lives , he argued .
And the administrative judges waved such lawsuits through .
The economic consequences in the city have been dramatic .
Car owners have had to sell off their three or four-year-old cars .
Many of which are now being driven in countries in Eastern Europe .
So after this fundamental fight against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was invented , one would expect air quality levels in the city to have changed significantly due to the lockdown and the drastically reduced car traffic .
But that is not been the case !
The widescale “ Corona car lockdown ” test shows : Diesel cars it can not be .
Yet the diesel lie continues .
The article first appeared at TE here .

Green lie gets exposed…
With a Corona lockdown in Stuttgart and diesel engine bans, one would think the fewer diesel cars on the streets would lead to less air pollutants. But far from it! Air measurement values remain unchanged through the significantly reduced traffic volume!
The article first appeared at TE here, hat-tip EIKE.
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)
Diesel car driving bans together with the reduced car traffic caused by the lockdown have shown to have had no effect on the values provided by air measuring stations.
Reduced traffic volume shows no affect
The diagrams for nitrogen dioxide of the past days show fluctuation around values of between 40 and 50 µg/m3. Germany’s most famous measuring station, the Stuttgarter Tal Am Neckartor, showed a nitrogen particulates concentration of 44 µg/m3 at 10 a.m. on Dec. 21st.
Similarly, NO2 emissions at the monitoring station in Bad Cannstatt fluctuated about 40 µg/m3. Incidentally, the 12-month mean value there is given as 23 µg/m3, i.e. well below the applicable limit values: 40 µg/m3 for the annual average, 80 µg/m3 for indoor areas, and as much as 950 µg/m3 at the workplace.
In the United States, at 100 µg/m3, limits are even more than twice as high as on German roads.
Daily NO2 particulates measurements at Stuttgart Am Neckartor. Values fluctuated about 50 µg/m3, well below the 200 µg/m3 limit.
This is also the result reached by measurement specialist Martin Schraag, who has also compared the values with the reduced traffic flow. He summarizes: “The daily pattern of the traffic measuring points Am Neckartor and Pragstraße has practically not changed since the lockdown started” on December 16th.
At Pragstraße, a long incline from Neckar to Pragsattel, the peak occurred on Dec. 18 at 5 p.m. after the lockdown had started. Otherwise, we see values fluctuating around 40 µg/m³ here as well, with typical maxima occurring at 5 p.m.”
Schraag comments on the far-reaching driving bans in Stuttgart:
It is unlikely that these values are caused by diesel cars. Even the Euro 5 class diesel cars have been banned from the small green zone of Stuttgart for months! During the lockdown in April, Euro 5 diesel cars were only banned on single routes, and control was still lax.”
Strict vehicle regulations
In addition to the lockdown, Stuttgart has probably the most extensive driving bans in German cities: diesel vehicles of the Euro 3 and 4 standard have not been allowed to enter the capital of Baden-Württemberg since January 1, 2019. Affected by the driving ban are not only some particularly busy streets in the city center as in other cities, the ban zone extends to Kornwestheim, Gerlingen and applies to the suburbs, which are located up on the Fildern – rather rural areas with lesser development. Even new Euro-5 diesels have been banned from downtown Stuttgart since July 1, 2020.
Bans based on false assumptions
The reason for the bans given by Baden-Württemberg’s Transport Minister Winfried Herrmann (Green Party) was that the underlying calculation models were very good. He also used the not particularly accurate readings at Pragstraße obtained with old passive recorders – a continuously measuring station had only existed there since October – and a computed projection for the year 2021 as justification for barring Euro-5 diesel from Stuttgart.
In doing so, he ignored the fact that the new Rosenstein Tunnel would transfer considerable traffic flows underground from 2021 onwards and would make a significant contribution to relieving traffic on the Pragstrasse. The city of Stuttgart had even described this in its clean air plan some time ago.
Forcing drivers out of their cars
The head of the Deutsche Umwelthilfe e.V. (German Environmental Aid Association) and frequent flyer Jürgen Resch has also been overrunning Stuttgart with lawsuits because the extremely low limit values were being exceeded. Only driving bans for diesel vehicles could lower the values and save human lives, he argued. And the administrative judges waved such lawsuits through.
The economic consequences in the city have been dramatic. Car owners have had to sell off their three or four-year-old cars. Many of which are now being driven in countries in Eastern Europe.
No change
So after this fundamental fight against diesel in the city where the car was invented, one would expect air quality levels in the city to have changed significantly due to the lockdown and the drastically reduced car traffic.
But that is not been the case!
The widescale “Corona car lockdown” test shows: Diesel cars it cannot be. Yet the diesel lie continues.
The article first appeared at TE here.
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December 25, 2020 at 11:09AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-25--Xmas 2020: Twelve Forgotten Principles of Public Health

Dr. Martin Kulldorff , PhD , is a Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School .
His research centers on developing new epidemiological and statistical methods for the early detection and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance .
This holiday gift remembrance is collected from Dr. Kulldorff ’ s twitter thread courtesy of AIER , which also includes links to articles adding depth to the 12 points .
Tweets in italics with my bolds .
• Public health is about all health outcomes , not just a single disease like Covid-19 .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public health measures .
More .
• Public health is about the long term rather than the short term .
Spring Covid lockdowns simply delayed and postponed the pandemic to the fall .
More .
• Public health is about everyone .
It should not be used to shift the burden of disease from the affluent to the less affluent , as the lockdowns have done .
More .
• Public health is global .
Public health scientists need to consider the global impact of their recommendations .
More .
• Risks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they can be reduced .
Elimination and zero-Covid strategies backfire , making things worse .
More .
• Public health should focus on high-risk populations .
For Covid-19 , many standard public health measures were never used to protect high-risk older people , leading to unnecessary deaths .
More .
• While contact tracing and isolation are critically important for some infectious diseases , it is futile and counterproductive for common infections such as influenza and Covid-19 .
More .
• A case is only a case if a person is sick @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to public health .
More .
• Public health is about trust .
To gain the trust of the public , public health officials and the media must be honest and trust the public .
Shaming and fear should never be used in a pandemic .
More .
• Public health scientists and officials must be honest with what is not known .
For example , epidemic models should be run with the whole range of plausible input parameters .
More .
• In public health , open civilized debate is profoundly critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fear of speaking , herd thinking and distrust .
More .
• It is important for public health scientists and officials to listen to the public , who are living the public health consequences .
This pandemic has proved that many non-epidemiologists understand public health better than some epidemiologists .
More .

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, PhD, is a Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School. His research centers on developing new epidemiological and statistical methods for the early detection and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. This holiday gift remembrance is collected from Dr. Kulldorff’s twitter thread courtesy of AIER, which also includes links to articles adding depth to the 12 points. Tweets in italics with my bolds.
Public health is about all health outcomes, not just a single disease like Covid-19. It is important to also consider harms from public health measures. More.
Public health is about the long term rather than the short term. Spring Covid lockdowns simply delayed and postponed the pandemic to the fall. More.
Public health is about everyone. It should not be used to shift the burden of disease from the affluent to the less affluent, as the lockdowns have done. More. Public health is global. Public health scientists need to consider the global impact of their recommendations. More.
Risks and harms cannot be completely eliminated, but they can be reduced. Elimination and zero-Covid strategies backfire, making things worse. More.
Public health should focus on high-risk populations. For Covid-19, many standard public health measures were never used to protect high-risk older people, leading to unnecessary deaths. More.
While contact tracing and isolation are critically important for some infectious diseases, it is futile and counterproductive for common infections such as influenza and Covid-19. More.
A case is only a case if a person is sick. Mass testing asymptomatic individuals is harmful to public health. More.
Public health is about trust. To gain the trust of the public, public health officials and the media must be honest and trust the public. Shaming and fear should never be used in a pandemic. More.
Public health scientists and officials must be honest with what is not known. For example, epidemic models should be run with the whole range of plausible input parameters. More.
In public health, open civilized debate is profoundly critical. Censoring, silencing and smearing leads to fear of speaking, herd thinking and distrust. More.
It is important for public health scientists and officials to listen to the public, who are living the public health consequences. This pandemic has proved that many non-epidemiologists understand public health better than some epidemiologists. More.
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December 25, 2020 at 09:37AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-25--Merry Christmas to all, did you get coal…or?

And in case you are unfamiliar with the energy density of Uranium , here ’ s a primer .
Happy @ @ @ @ @ WattsUpWithThat !

And in case you are unfamiliar with the energy density of Uranium, here’s a primer.
Happy Holidays from the gang at WattsUpWithThat!
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-26--Why do the HadSST Sea-Surface Temperatures Trend Down?

The simple answer is that the portion of the ocean , roughly 54 % , that has HadSST values is getting cooler .
But Nick Stokes doesn ’ t believe that .
His idea is that the coverage of the polar regions is increasing fast enough that , year-by-year , the additional cooler cells are causing the “ true ” upward trend in ocean temperature to decrease .
I decided to examine the data further to see if that makes any sense .
First , let ’ s look at the graph in question in Figure 1 .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This post shows the global average temperature for the portion of the ocean covered by HadSST in that year .
Both the HadSST temperatures and the ERSST temperatures are shown , but the ERSST grid values are clipped to the HadSST covered area .
As we discussed in our previous posts , the populated HadSST grid cells ( the cells with values ) have the best data .
The cells are 5° latitude and longitude boxes .
At the equator , these cells are over 300,000 sq .
km.
, larger than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s idea were correct , we would expect the cell population to be increasing at both poles .
Figure 2 shows the percentage of the global grid ( including the 29 % with land ) covered with populated SST ( sea-surface temperature ) cells by year .
The number of missing cells doesn ’ t vary much , the minimum is 44 % and the maximum is 48 % .
There might be a downward trend from 2001-2008 , but no trend after that .
Figure 1 does flatten out after 2008 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see an increase from 2008 to 2018 .
Figure 2 .
The number of monthly null cells in the HadSST dataset , as a percent of the total global monthly cells per year ( 72x36x12=31,104 ) .
So , mixed message from that plot .
Let us look at the nulls by year and latitude in Figure 3 .
Figure 3 .
The number of monthly nulls , by year and latitude .
Figure 3 shows that the nulls in the polar regions are fairly constant over the period from 2001 to 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavy black line and 2001 a heavy red line so you can see the beginning and the end of the series more clearly .
The real variability is in the southern Indian , Pacific and Atlantic Oceans from 55°S to 30°S .
These are middle latitudes , not polar latitudes .
Neither 2018 nor 2001 are outliers .
The same pattern can be seen when we view a movie of the changing null cells from 2001 to 2018 .
Click on the map below to see the movie .
Figure 4 .
Map @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the HadSST dataset for the year 2001 .
To see where the null cells are in all the years to 2018 , click on the map and a movie will play .
As before , the white areas have no null months in the given year , the blue color is either one or two null months and the other colors are more than two null months .
Red means the whole cell is null .
The number of null cells in the polar regions does not appear to change much from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the southern mid-latitudes .
The number of null cells , as a percentage of the globe , does decline a bit from 2001 to 2008 , but only from 48 % to 44 % , not enough to reverse a trend .
After 2008 , there is no trend in null cells .
From 2008 to 2018 , the temperature trend is flat , and not decreasing , but given where the number of cells is changing , it is hard to say this is due to the number of populated cells @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own mind , but in my view , we still have no idea what the global ocean surface temperature is , or whether it is warming or cooling .

By Andy May
The simple answer is that the portion of the ocean, roughly 54%, that has HadSST values is getting cooler. But Nick Stokes doesn’t believe that. His idea is that the coverage of the polar regions is increasing fast enough that, year-by-year, the additional cooler cells are causing the “true” upward trend in ocean temperature to decrease. I decided to examine the data further to see if that makes any sense.
First, let’s look at the graph in question in Figure 1. It is from our previous post.
Figure 1. This post shows the global average temperature for the portion of the ocean covered by HadSST in that year. Both the HadSST temperatures and the ERSST temperatures are shown, but the ERSST grid values are clipped to the HadSST covered area.
As we discussed in our previous posts, the populated HadSST grid cells (the cells with values) have the best data. The cells are 5° latitude and longitude boxes. At the equator, these cells are over 300,000 sq. km., larger than the state of Colorado. If Nick’s idea were correct, we would expect the cell population to be increasing at both poles. Figure 2 shows the percentage of the global grid (including the 29% with land) covered with populated SST (sea-surface temperature) cells by year. The number of missing cells doesn’t vary much, the minimum is 44% and the maximum is 48%. There might be a downward trend from 2001-2008, but no trend after that. Figure 1 does flatten out after 2008, but you must work hard to see an increase from 2008 to 2018.
Figure 2. The number of monthly null cells in the HadSST dataset, as a percent of the total global monthly cells per year (72x36x12=31,104).
So, mixed message from that plot. Let us look at the nulls by year and latitude in Figure 3.
Figure 3. The number of monthly nulls, by year and latitude.
Figure 3 shows that the nulls in the polar regions are fairly constant over the period from 2001 to 2018. I’ve made 2018 a heavy black line and 2001 a heavy red line so you can see the beginning and the end of the series more clearly. The real variability is in the southern Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans from 55°S to 30°S. These are middle latitudes, not polar latitudes. Neither 2018 nor 2001 are outliers.
The same pattern can be seen when we view a movie of the changing null cells from 2001 to 2018. Click on the map below to see the movie.
Figure 4. Map of the number of monthly null cells in the HadSST dataset for the year 2001. To see where the null cells are in all the years to 2018, click on the map and a movie will play. As before, the white areas have no null months in the given year, the blue color is either one or two null months and the other colors are more than two null months. Red means the whole cell is null.
Conclusions
The number of null cells in the polar regions does not appear to change much from 2001 to 2018. The changes occur in the southern mid-latitudes. The number of null cells, as a percentage of the globe, does decline a bit from 2001 to 2008, but only from 48% to 44%, not enough to reverse a trend. After 2008, there is no trend in null cells. From 2008 to 2018, the temperature trend is flat, and not decreasing, but given where the number of cells is changing, it is hard to say this is due to the number of populated cells.
The reader can make up their own mind, but in my view, we still have no idea what the global ocean surface temperature is, or whether it is warming or cooling.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-26--Massachusetts city to post climate change warning stickers at gas stations

Festivities over – back to pointless miserablism for believers in a human-caused ‘ climate crisis ’ due to minor trace gases .
A similar tobacco health-warning style move has been made in Vancouver , Canada .
Once again theoretical ideas are presented as facts , or likely facts .
This new campaign was voted through last January .
The promoter say “ The gas pump stickers will remind drivers to think about climate change and hopefully consider non-polluting options.
” Forgetting to mention that carbon dioxide is not a pollutant , and that pollution has nothing to do with climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Massachusetts , has become the first US city to mandate the placing of stickers on fuel pumps to warn drivers of the resulting dangers posed by the climate crisis , reports The Guardian .
The final design of the bright yellow stickers , shared with the Guardian , includes text that warns drivers the burning of gasoline , diesel and ethanol has “ major consequences on human health and the environment including contributing to climate change ” .
The stickers will be placed on all fuel pumps in Cambridge , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harvard University , “ fairly soon ” once they are received from printers , a city spokesman confirmed .
“ The city of Cambridge is working hard with our community to fight climate change , ” the spokesman added .
“ The gas pump stickers will remind drivers to think about climate change and hopefully consider non-polluting options.
” The placement of the stickers follows an ordinance passed by Cambridge in January .

Festivities over – back to pointless miserablism for believers in a human-caused ‘climate crisis’ due to minor trace gases. A similar tobacco health-warning style move has been made in Vancouver, Canada. Once again theoretical ideas are presented as facts, or likely facts. This new campaign was voted through last January. The promoter say “The gas pump stickers will remind drivers to think about climate change and hopefully consider non-polluting options.” Forgetting to mention that carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, and that pollution has nothing to do with climate change anyway.
– – –
Cambridge, Massachusetts, has become the first US city to mandate the placing of stickers on fuel pumps to warn drivers of the resulting dangers posed by the climate crisis, reports The Guardian.
The final design of the bright yellow stickers, shared with the Guardian, includes text that warns drivers the burning of gasoline, diesel and ethanol has “major consequences on human health and the environment including contributing to climate change”.
The stickers will be placed on all fuel pumps in Cambridge, which is situated near Boston and is home to Harvard University, “fairly soon” once they are received from printers, a city spokesman confirmed.
“The city of Cambridge is working hard with our community to fight climate change,” the spokesman added. “The gas pump stickers will remind drivers to think about climate change and hopefully consider non-polluting options.”
The placement of the stickers follows an ordinance passed by Cambridge in January.
Continued here.
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December 26, 2020 at 04:51AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-26--An Upbeat Look at Nuclear with Rod Adams

Robert Bryce ’ s Power Hungry podcast has a excellent interview with longtime nuclear energy blogger and podcaster Rod Adams .
It ’ s almost two hours and has rather few views so I thought I ’ d post a little bit of background and highlights .
Rod Adams is a slightly gruff looking Annapolis graduate ( a ring knocker as he calls himself ) and former submarine nuclear officer .
His voice sort of reminds me of the late great James Gandolfini .
He ’ s certainly the world ’ s most prominent blogger and podcaster on nuclear energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ importance of nuclear energy for human well being .
His podcasts start with a catchy jingle , There ’ s a Better Way .
He has an encyclopedic knowledge of the subject and his blog posts and podcast can get rather technical .
Bryce does a great job of making this an accessible overview .
Lately , Michael Shellenberger has been getting a lot of attention promoting nuclear .
He sort of gives the impression that too much attention is being paid to newer reactor designs and that large AP1000 type designs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia and China moving ahead .
Shellenberger is admittedly not a STEM person , but he has educated himself and has a good overview of the basic concepts .
Adams pretty much lives and breaths this stuff and follows the industry and new developments very closely .
He ’ s excited about a new generation of driven people who see an opportunity to transform the future .
BTW Adams has a great podcast interview with Shellenberger about his new book .
Adams is very optimistic about the potential of Nuscale ’ s upcoming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very familiar with licensing and siting locations .
Yes , they won ’ t be ready until 2027 , but there are a lot of intriguing aspects .
The biggest one is that they are designed to be meltdown proof .
He has a recent post on economy of scale ( republished from 1996 ) that has an interesting twist for light water reactors : For example , one assumption explicitly stated in the economy of scale model is that the cost of auxiliary systems does not increase as rapidly as plant capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that assumption is not true for nuclear plants .
Since the reactor core continues to produce heat after the plant is shutdown , and since a larger , more powerful core releases less of its heat to its immediate surroundings because of a smaller surface to volume ratio , it is more difficult to provide decay heat removal for higher capacity cores .
It is also manifestly more difficult , time consuming and expensive to prove that the requirements for heat removal will be met under all postulated conditions without damaging the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , overall costs , including regulatory burdens , seem to have increased more rapidly than plant capacity .
There are also a lot of intriguing prospects for siting .
They will fit very nicely at existing coal plant sites .
Coal plant sites are not likely to have gas pipelines and additional pipelines are being blocked .
There should also be a lot more electricity demand coming with electric cars and gas heating being exchanged for heat pumps and such .
One fascinating thing he points out is that nuclear costs have not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just that they have to deal with congested grid pricing from wind and solar .
One interesting new design is the Natrium from Terrapower and GE Hitachi .
It will have a molten salt buffer between the core and the steam turbines .
This will allow it to spool electricity generation up and down fast to deal with intermittent wind .
Yes , nuclear power is so good it will enable the blight of wind turbines and stick us with them forever .
Adams sees a need for cutting CO2 emissions and says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is with a carbon tax .
He thinks this will help make prices more predictable and make planning easier for energy companies .
He criticizes wind farm tax credits being the same for all locations , even where there ’ s already congestion .
He credits Daniel Yergin ’ s book , The Prize , with showing how important it is to keep energy supply and demand balanced .
I ’ ve included a minute guide to help those interested to check out various parts without having to go through the whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worth listening to .
4:00 to 5:00 – Why he prefers term ‘ atomic ’ to ‘ nuclear ’ 50:00 to 1:00:00 – Prospects for nuclear in US 1:04:00 to 1:07:00 – New reactors and sites 1:07:00 to 1:08:00 – Rod is now a venture capitalist 1:13:00 to 1:17:00 – Getting nuclear to work 1:20:00 – Navy expertice should be declassified and utilized

Reposted from Climate Scepticism
Posted on 16 Dec 20 by MIKE DOMBROSKI
Robert Bryce’s Power Hungry podcast has a excellent interview with longtime nuclear energy blogger and podcaster Rod Adams. It’s almost two hours and has rather few views so I thought I’d post a little bit of background and highlights.
Rod Adams is a slightly gruff looking Annapolis graduate (a ring knocker as he calls himself) and former submarine nuclear officer. His voice sort of reminds me of the late great James Gandolfini. He’s certainly the world’s most prominent blogger and podcaster on nuclear energy. He cares very deeply about the importance of nuclear energy for human well being. His podcasts start with a catchy jingle, There’s a Better Way. He has an encyclopedic knowledge of the subject and his blog posts and podcast can get rather technical. Bryce does a great job of making this an accessible overview.
Lately, Michael Shellenberger has been getting a lot of attention promoting nuclear. He sort of gives the impression that too much attention is being paid to newer reactor designs and that large AP1000 type designs are the way to go, especially with Russia and China moving ahead. Shellenberger is admittedly not a STEM person, but he has educated himself and has a good overview of the basic concepts. Adams pretty much lives and breaths this stuff and follows the industry and new developments very closely. He’s excited about a new generation of driven people who see an opportunity to transform the future. BTW Adams has a great podcast interview with Shellenberger about his new book.
Adams is very optimistic about the potential of Nuscale’s upcoming small modular reactors. He’s very familiar with licensing and siting locations. Yes, they won’t be ready until 2027, but there are a lot of intriguing aspects. The biggest one is that they are designed to be meltdown proof. He has a recent post on economy of scale (republished from 1996) that has an interesting twist for light water reactors:
For example, one assumption explicitly stated in the economy of scale model is that the cost of auxiliary systems does not increase as rapidly as plant capacity. In at least one key area, that assumption is not true for nuclear plants. Since the reactor core continues to produce heat after the plant is shutdown, and since a larger, more powerful core releases less of its heat to its immediate surroundings because of a smaller surface to volume ratio, it is more difficult to provide decay heat removal for higher capacity cores. It is also manifestly more difficult, time consuming and expensive to prove that the requirements for heat removal will be met under all postulated conditions without damaging the core. For emergency core cooling systems, overall costs, including regulatory burdens, seem to have increased more rapidly than plant capacity.
There are also a lot of intriguing prospects for siting. They will fit very nicely at existing coal plant sites. Coal plant sites are not likely to have gas pipelines and additional pipelines are being blocked. There should also be a lot more electricity demand coming with electric cars and gas heating being exchanged for heat pumps and such. One fascinating thing he points out is that nuclear costs have not actually gone up. It’s just that they have to deal with congested grid pricing from wind and solar.
One interesting new design is the Natrium from Terrapower and GE Hitachi. It will have a molten salt buffer between the core and the steam turbines. This will allow it to spool electricity generation up and down fast to deal with intermittent wind. Yes, nuclear power is so good it will enable the blight of wind turbines and stick us with them forever.
Adams sees a need for cutting CO2 emissions and says he thinks the best way to do it is with a carbon tax. He thinks this will help make prices more predictable and make planning easier for energy companies. He criticizes wind farm tax credits being the same for all locations, even where there’s already congestion. He credits Daniel Yergin’s book, The Prize, with showing how important it is to keep energy supply and demand balanced.
I’ve included a minute guide to help those interested to check out various parts without having to go through the whole thing, but it’s all worth listening to.
Minute Guide
4:00 to 5:00 – Why he prefers term ‘atomic’ to ‘nuclear’
7:00 to 14:00 – AP1000
13:00 to 15:00 – Natural gas availability
15:00 to 25:00 – Nuscale
25:00 to 29:00 – General Electric boiling water reactors
29:00 to 32:00 – Westinghouse
33:00 to 37:00 – Oklo
37:00 to 45:00 – Terrestrial Energy, Thoricon — molten salt reactors
45:00 to 46:00 – Nuclear powered ships
46:00 to 50:00 – Advanced reactor projects
50:00 to 1:00:00 – Prospects for nuclear in US
1:01:00 to 1:02:00 – Natrium with molten salt buffer
1:03:00 to 1:04:00 – Regulation and policy
1:04:00 to 1:07:00 – New reactors and sites
1:07:00 to 1:08:00 – Rod is now a venture capitalist
1:08:00 to 1:10:00 – Existing fleet
1:10:00 to 1:13:00 – Congested pricing due to wind
1:13:00 to 1:17:00 – Getting nuclear to work
1:17:00 to 1:23:00 – Navy, Rickover
1:24:00 to 1:26:00 – Waste
1:27:00 to 1:29:00 – Jimmy Carter
1:29:00 to 1:31:00 – Waste issue as strategy
1:31:00 to 1:35:00 – Rod’s motivation
1:34:00 to 1:40:00 – Oppostion to nuclear
1:41:00 to 1:44:00 – Books
1:45:00 to 1:49:00 – Concluding optimism
Interesting Points
56:00 – Nuclear plant costs have not increased
58:00, 1:13:00 – Carbon price
1:04:00 – 2027 should be interesting year
1:20:00 – Navy expertice should be declassified and utilized
1:38:00 – Coal interests fought against nuclear
1:43:00 – Praise for Daniel Yergin’s The Prize
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-26--China walks on Australian toes in Torres Strait

My headline could have said “ aided n abetted by PNG ” – So PNG is allowing China to build @ @ @ @ @ Island and deploy Sino fishing fleets there .
Wow what a kick-in-the-face from PNG to @ @ @ @ @ news at Christmas .
Here is a map of various marine zones in Torres Strait @ @ @ @ @ here for larger version .
What a festival for fleets of lawyers this will be @ @ @ @ @ should be recalled from hols and all relationships with PNG and Bouganville urgently reviewed .

My headline could have said “aided n abetted by PNG” – So PNG is allowing China to build a fishing port on Daru Island and deploy Sino fishing fleets there. Wow what a kick-in-the-face from PNG to Australia – and releasing the news at Christmas. Here is a map of various marine zones in Torres Strait from this source.
Click here for larger version. What a festival for fleets of lawyers this will be. Our so called diplomats should be recalled from hols and all relationships with PNG and Bouganville urgently reviewed.
via Errors in IPCC climate science
https://ift.tt/3pqleY4
December 25, 2020 at 11:20PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-26--The Mushrooming of the 2020 US Election

The Mushrooming of the 2020 US Election

On December 23 President Trump made a powerful speech summing up facts behind the purported win by Joe Biden of the US election .
Our own transcript is below .
As is normal , the mainstream US media and the Australian media en bloc have ignored or ridiculed this speech .
Their narrative is that Trump is a spiteful and buffoonish loser .
In the real world , a Rasmussen survey showed that only 47 per cent of American voters believe that Joe Biden won .
Only 10 per cent of Republicans think Biden won fairly .
And these American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Quadrant Online now goes where the rest of the media refuses , and publishes our own and full transcript of Trump ’ s 14-minute address .
It exposes the disgraceful alliance of the media ( including The Australian ’ s US correspondent , let alone the ABC ) , the media-technology giants and the Democrat Party to suppress pro-Trump news , up to and including censoring the President himself .
Here is just one handy fact : Twitter has censored Trump and his campaign 543 times since May 2018 .
Its censoring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to explain to you why I am so determined to pursue every legal and constitutional option available to stop the theft of the presidential election .
As President one of my most solemn duties is to protect the integrity of your sacred right to vote .
This year , using the virus as a pretext , Democrat officials in the key swing states illegally violated their state laws in order to enable , encourage and facilitate fraud on a scale never before seen in the history of our country .
The truth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ landslide .
We won it big .
I am going to give you the facts that every American needs to know .
Let ’ s go back to the night of the election .
By midnight we had a commanding lead in the swing states .
We won Florida by a record number of votes .
We won Ohio by a record number of votes .
And likewise we won Iowa by 8.2 per cent , far different than the false narrative portrayed in the media .
We were up by 293,000 votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin , 356,000 votes in Georgia and nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania , all swing states .
These numbers were absolutely impossible for Joe Biden to overcome and the Democrats knew it , and everybody forecasting knew it and understood it well .
Our nation ’ s greatest political professionals were calling to congratulate me on our victory .
Then , suddenly , everything started to disappear , everything started to change .
The vote-counting abruptly stopped in multiple states .
In the middle of the night a series of massive and statistically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state after state .
At 6.31am , very early in the morning Michigan , suddenly reported 147,224 votes , 94 per cent for Biden , 6 per cent for Trump .
At 4.42am Wisconsin reported 143,279 votes , almost all of them for Biden .
A similar massive drop of ballots happened in Georgia at 1.34am , again almost all of these votes for Biden .
These gigantic and ridiculously one-sided spikes were miraculously just enough to push Biden into the lead in all of the key swing states .
These glaring anomalies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We won 18 out of 19 bellwether counties — a record !
— that have correctly predicted the winner of every Presidential election for the last 40 years .
We also won Ohio , Florida and Iowa by historic margins , meaning Biden would be the first candidate since 1960 — and only the second candidate in American history — to win the White House while losing all three of those major states , and it was not even close .
With Joe Biden at the top of the ticket the Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seats , that is a record .
The Democrats were projected to gain 15 seats and instead , because of my success and coat-tails , as they call them , they lost 14 seats .
So think of that — they were going to win big and they ended up losing big .
My campaign received more votes than any president in history , almost 75 million people voted for me .
We earned approximately 12 million more votes than we got in 2016 , the largest vote increase for any incumbent president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largest share of non-white voters of any Republican in over 60 years .
In fact we did better with African American and Hispanic voters everywhere in the country except for a small handful of corrupt Democrat-run cities in key swing states , places notorious for fraud such as Milwaukee , Detroit , Atlanta and Philadelphia , all run by Democrat machine politicians .
No president has ever lost re-election while making such extraordinary gains across the board .
There has never been anything like it .
Yet despite all this evidence of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all those projections all through the night , they want us to believe that Biden , who seldom left his basement to campaign , somehow received 11.7 million more votes than Barack Obama , and he beat Obama all over the country .
It is historically , mathematically , politically , and logically impossible .
It didn ’ t happen .
He didn ’ t win , we won by a landslide .
Over the past seven weeks we have put forward abundant evidence proving how Democrats perpetrated this monstrous fraud on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world .
Firstly we have shown officials in virtually every key swing state brazenly violated their own state laws in order to change the election procedures , eliminate safeguards , promote fraud and illegally benefit Joe Biden , and legislatures which have to make changes were seldom if ever used .
For example , Pennsylvania ’ s radical Democrat Secretary of State suspended all signature verification requirements , breaking Pennsylvania law not to mention the big and very illegal ballot drops .
In Michigan the Secretary of State , a Democrat , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applications even though Michigan law strictly limits distribution of absentee ballots .
In Wisconsin major Democrat cities deployed over 500 unmanned , unsecured ballot drop boxes that were blatantly illegal , paving the way for unlawful ballot harvesting and tremendous fraud .
In Georgia the Secretary of State began illegally processing ballots weeks before election day and also destroyed the signature verification system in violation of the law .
Many other horrible things were done in Georgia .
Those actions alone were more than enough to rig the election results for Democrats .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that hundreds of thousands of illegitimate votes were counted in the key states .
This was sufficient to change the election results all on its own .
In 2016 , 6.4 per cent of mail-in ballots were rejected in Georgia .
This year fewer than a tiny percentage of one per cent were rejected .
You went all the way down , a difference [ reduction ] of more than 30 times .
The same phenomenon occurred in Pennsylvania and other states .
They were accepting all of these ballots , many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year in which the number of mail-in ballots was the highest ever , the rejection rate was magically the lowest ever and it was not even close .
The only possible explanation is that tens of thousands of ballots were unlawfully processed and counted .
Most Americans would be shocked to learn that in no swing state is there any meaningful attempt to verify citizenship , residency , identity or eligibility for mail-in ballots .
The potential for illegal activity is unlimited .
That is what we just experienced .
Thirdly , hundreds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to testify under penalty of perjury about cheating and fraud they saw with their own eyes .
Witness have sworn they saw ballot workers illegally backdating thousands of ballots , counting batches of the same ballots many times and unloading boxes and boxes of ballots , all bearing the same signature and all for Joe Biden .
Other witnesses testified seeing thousands of so-called pristine ballots with no creases or folds , all voting for Biden .
When you have no folds , it means it was not mailed .
It means it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were denied critical access as hundreds of thousands of votes were counted in Democrat-run cities in the essential states .
There is even security camera footage from Georgia that shows officials telling poll-watchers to leave the room before pulling suitcases of ballots out from under the tables and continuing to count for hours .
The reason they were forced to leave the room there was they said a major water main break .
The water main break never happened , there was no water main break .
In many cases Republican poll watchers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
feature=oembed In addition , there was the deeply troubling matter of Dominion voting machines .
In just one major county alone 6000 votes were switched from Trump to Biden and the same system was used throughout the majority of the US .
No satisfactory explanation has been offered over why Dominion systems are able to switch votes with the mere push of a button .
In Arizona the state senators recently issued a subpoena for forensic auditing of voting machines and similar investigations must be made in every state using Dominion systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t allow Dominion system to be used .
As I have just laid out , we have unveiled overwhelming evidence of election fraud .
None of this should ever have been allowed to happen in the USA .
It is a travesty of democracy , it is a shame upon our republic .
In 2016 we caught them by surprise .
From that moment they had four years to work on these schemes to rig the 2020 election .
The rigging of the 2020 election was only the final step in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long effort to overthrow the will of the American people and destroy our movement by any means possible — any means necessary .
For months and indeed years before the election , media and the big technology giants and the Democrat party were openly colluding to deceive the American public .
Earlier this year it was proven beyond any doubt that Joe Biden ’ s family received millions dollars from the Chinese Communist Party .
Yet media and the technology giants worked together to completely censor this information .
Our country no longer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a press of suppression , a press where the truth will never come out .
It is the greatest and most shocking scandal involving a presidential candidate in modern history .
But surveys show that half those who voted for Joe Biden have never even heard of the story .
To continue the transcript , click here

On December 23 President Trump made a powerful speech summing up facts behind the purported win by Joe Biden of the US election. Our own transcript is below. As is normal, the mainstream US media and the Australian media en bloc have ignored or ridiculed this speech. Their narrative is that Trump is a spiteful and buffoonish loser.
In the real world, a Rasmussen survey showed that only 47 per cent of American voters believe that Joe Biden won. Only 10 per cent of Republicans think Biden won fairly.
And these American voters have good grounds for so believing. Quadrant Online now goes where the rest of the media refuses, and publishes our own and full transcript of Trump’s 14-minute address.
It exposes the disgraceful alliance of the media (including The Australian’s US correspondent, let alone the ABC), the media-technology giants and the Democrat Party to suppress pro-Trump news, up to and including censoring the President himself. Here is just one handy fact: Twitter has censored Trump and his campaign 543 times since May 2018. Its censoring of Biden: zero.
—Tony Thomas
______________________
My fellow Americans,
Today I want to explain to you why I am so determined to pursue every legal and constitutional option available to stop the theft of the presidential election.
As President one of my most solemn duties is to protect the integrity of your sacred right to vote. This year, using the virus as a pretext, Democrat officials in the key swing states illegally violated their state laws in order to enable, encourage and facilitate fraud on a scale never before seen in the history of our country. The truth is we won the election by a landslide. We won it big. I am going to give you the facts that every American needs to know.
Let’s go back to the night of the election. By midnight we had a commanding lead in the swing states. We won Florida by a record number of votes. We won Ohio by a record number of votes. And likewise we won Iowa by 8.2 per cent, far different than the false narrative portrayed in the media. We were up by 293,000 votes in Mi
Michigan, 112,000 votes in Wisconsin, 356,000 votes in Georgia and nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania, all swing states. These numbers were absolutely impossible for Joe Biden to overcome and the Democrats knew it, and everybody forecasting knew it and understood it well. Our nation’s greatest political professionals were calling to congratulate me on our victory. Then, suddenly, everything started to disappear, everything started to change.
The vote-counting abruptly stopped in multiple states. In the middle of the night a series of massive and statistically inconceivable vote dumps overturned the results in state after state. At 6.31am, very early in the morning Michigan, suddenly reported 147,224 votes, 94 per cent for Biden, 6 per cent for Trump. At 4.42am Wisconsin reported 143,279 votes, almost all of them for Biden. A similar massive drop of ballots happened in Georgia at 1.34am, again almost all of these votes for Biden. These gigantic and ridiculously one-sided spikes were miraculously just enough to push Biden into the lead in all of the key swing states.
These glaring anomalies are just the tip of the iceberg. We won 18 out of 19 bellwether counties — a record! — that have correctly predicted the winner of every Presidential election for the last 40 years. We also won Ohio, Florida and Iowa by historic margins, meaning Biden would be the first candidate since 1960 — and only the second candidate in American history — to win the White House while losing all three of those major states, and it was not even close. With Joe Biden at the top of the ticket the Democrats lost 25 out of 26 toss-up House seats, that is a record. The Democrats were projected to gain 15 seats and instead, because of my success and coat-tails, as they call them, they lost 14 seats. So think of that — they were going to win big and they ended up losing big.
My campaign received more votes than any president in history, almost 75 million people voted for me. We earned approximately 12 million more votes than we got in 2016, the largest vote increase for any incumbent president ever recorded. I also received the largest share of non-white voters of any Republican in over 60 years. In fact we did better with African American and Hispanic voters everywhere in the country except for a small handful of corrupt Democrat-run cities in key swing states, places notorious for fraud such as Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta and Philadelphia, all run by Democrat machine politicians.
No president has ever lost re-election while making such extraordinary gains across the board. There has never been anything like it. Yet despite all this evidence of a thundering Trump victor,y and despite all those projections all through the night, they want us to believe that Biden, who seldom left his basement to campaign, somehow received 11.7 million more votes than Barack Obama, and he beat Obama all over the country. It is historically, mathematically, politically, and logically impossible. It didn’t happen. He didn’t win, we won by a landslide.
Over the past seven weeks we have put forward abundant evidence proving how Democrats perpetrated this monstrous fraud on the American people and, indeed, on the world.
Firstly we have shown officials in virtually every key swing state brazenly violated their own state laws in order to change the election procedures, eliminate safeguards, promote fraud and illegally benefit Joe Biden, and legislatures which have to make changes were seldom if ever used. For example, Pennsylvania’s radical Democrat Secretary of State suspended all signature verification requirements, breaking Pennsylvania law not to mention the big and very illegal ballot drops. In Michigan the Secretary of State, a Democrat, illegally flooded the state with absentee ballot applications even though Michigan law strictly limits distribution of absentee ballots. In Wisconsin major Democrat cities deployed over 500 unmanned, unsecured ballot drop boxes that were blatantly illegal, paving the way for unlawful ballot harvesting and tremendous fraud.
In Georgia the Secretary of State began illegally processing ballots weeks before election day and also destroyed the signature verification system in violation of the law. Many other horrible things were done in Georgia. Those actions alone were more than enough to rig the election results for Democrats.
Second, absentee ballot rejection rates prove that hundreds of thousands of illegitimate votes were counted in the key states. This was sufficient to change the election results all on its own. In 2016, 6.4 per cent of mail-in ballots were rejected in Georgia. This year fewer than a tiny percentage of one per cent were rejected. You went all the way down, a difference [reduction] of more than 30 times. The same phenomenon occurred in Pennsylvania and other states. They were accepting all of these ballots, many of which were absolutely illegal. In a year in which the number of mail-in ballots was the highest ever, the rejection rate was magically the lowest ever and it was not even close. The only possible explanation is that tens of thousands of ballots were unlawfully processed and counted.
Most Americans would be shocked to learn that in no swing state is there any meaningful attempt to verify citizenship, residency, identity or eligibility for mail-in ballots. The potential for illegal activity is unlimited. That is what we just experienced.
Thirdly, hundreds and hundreds of witnesses have come forward to testify under penalty of perjury about cheating and fraud they saw with their own eyes. Witness have sworn they saw ballot workers illegally backdating thousands of ballots, counting batches of the same ballots many times and unloading boxes and boxes of ballots, all bearing the same signature and all for Joe Biden. Other witnesses testified seeing thousands of so-called pristine ballots with no creases or folds, all voting for Biden. When you have no folds, it means it was not mailed. It means it was a fraud.
Republican poll watchers were denied critical access as hundreds of thousands of votes were counted in Democrat-run cities in the essential states. There is even security camera footage from Georgia that shows officials telling poll-watchers to leave the room before pulling suitcases of ballots out from under the tables and continuing to count for hours. The reason they were forced to leave the room there was they said a major water main break. The water main break never happened, there was no water main break. In many cases Republican poll watchers were physically removed from rooms.https://www.youtube.com/embed/g2GrVSsoVz4?feature=oembed
In addition, there was the deeply troubling matter of Dominion voting machines. In just one major county alone 6000 votes were switched from Trump to Biden and the same system was used throughout the majority of the US. No satisfactory explanation has been offered over why Dominion systems are able to switch votes with the mere push of a button. In Arizona the state senators recently issued a subpoena for forensic auditing of voting machines and similar investigations must be made in every state using Dominion systems, immediately.
In Texas they don’t allow Dominion system to be used.
As I have just laid out, we have unveiled overwhelming evidence of election fraud. None of this should ever have been allowed to happen in the USA. It is a travesty of democracy, it is a shame upon our republic. In 2016 we caught them by surprise. From that moment they had four years to work on these schemes to rig the 2020 election.
The rigging of the 2020 election was only the final step in the Democrats’ and media’s years long effort to overthrow the will of the American people and destroy our movement by any means possible — any means necessary.
For months and indeed years before the election, media and the big technology giants and the Democrat party were openly colluding to deceive the American public. Earlier this year it was proven beyond any doubt that Joe Biden’s family received millions dollars from the Chinese Communist Party. Yet media and the technology giants worked together to completely censor this information. Our country no longer has a free press, it is a press of suppression, a press where the truth will never come out. It is the greatest and most shocking scandal involving a presidential candidate in modern history. But surveys show that half those who voted for Joe Biden have never even heard of the story.
To continue the transcript, click here