iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Ten climate predictions for 2020 that went horribly wrong

As ever , too much reliance on climate models is liable to lead to embarrassment and failure .
But there @ @ @ @ @ of new or recycled scares to fall back on , preferably those with distant expiry @ @ @ @ @ face .
– – – It seems climate armageddon has taken a permanent sabbatical , @ @ @ @ @ before Beto O ’ Rourke claimed the world only had 10 years left for humans @ @ @ @ @ , alarmists had spent decades predicting one doomsday scenario after another , each of which @ @ @ @ @ Many of those doomsday predictions specifically mentioned the annus horribilus of 2020 .
Those predictions @ @ @ @ @ spectacularly .
Steve Milloy , a former Trump/Pence EPA transition team member and founder of @ @ @ @ @ predictions for 2020 that fell far off the mark .

H/T The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
As ever, too much reliance on climate models is liable to lead to embarrassment and failure. But there’s always a supply of new or recycled scares to fall back on, preferably those with distant expiry dates to avoid loss of face.
– – –
It seems climate armageddon has taken a permanent sabbatical, says PJ Media.
Long before Beto O’Rourke claimed the world only had 10 years left for humans to act against climate change, alarmists had spent decades predicting one doomsday scenario after another, each of which stubbornly failed to materialize.
Many of those doomsday predictions specifically mentioned the annus horribilus of 2020.
Those predictions also failed, some rather spectacularly.
Steve Milloy, a former Trump/Pence EPA transition team member and founder of JunkScience.com, compiled ten climate predictions for 2020 that fell far off the mark.
1. Average global temperature up 3 degrees Celsius
Continued here.
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December 29, 2020 at 05:15AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--New Covid-19 Outbreak in Beijing, China

New Covid-19 Outbreak in Beijing, China

h/t Breitbart ; According to SCMP , Beijing has gone into “ emergency response mode ” to contain a new @ @ @ @ @ been detected near Beijing International Capital Airport .
New controls introduced in the Chinese capital @ @ @ @ @ the epidemic control situation is ‘ severe ’ Mass testing carried out in two districts @ @ @ @ @ been detected eijing has gone into “ emergency response mode ” after five more Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ Chinese capital on Saturday .
A further positive case has yet to be officially confirmed @ @ @ @ @ yet shown symptoms .
The latest cases all came from the north of the city @ @ @ @ @ the city ’ s Shunyi district , near Beijing International Capital Airport .
In total @ @ @ @ @ detected in Beijing since the first local infection in 152 days was reported on December @ @ @ @ @ been many sporadic outbreaks .
The epidemic control situation is very severe , ” a @ @ @ @ @ said on Sunday .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; According to SCMP, Beijing has gone into “emergency response mode” to contain a new Covid-19 outbreak, which has been detected near Beijing International Capital Airport.
New controls introduced in the Chinese capital as the city authorities warn the epidemic control situation is ‘severe’Mass testing carried out in two districts where new Covid-19 cases have been detected
Zhuang Pinghui in Beijing
Published: 9:00pm, 27 Dec, 2020
eijing has gone into “emergency response mode” after five more Covid-19 cases were confirmed in the Chinese capital on Saturday.
A further positive case has yet to be officially confirmed because the patient has not yet shown symptoms.
The latest cases all came from the north of the city, in Nanfaxin township in the city’s Shunyi district, near Beijing International Capital Airport.
In total, thirteen infections have been detected in Beijing since the first local infection in 152 days was reported on December 18.
“There have been many sporadic outbreaks. The epidemic control situation is very severe,” a spokesman for the Beijing government said on Sunday.
…
Beijing Happy Valley, a theme park in southern Beijing, said in a statement that all night sessions would be cancelled from Monday and a live New Year’s Eve concert has also been called off.
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Britain’s new climate plan that could make millions of homes unsellable

Few people , I fear , have spotted the very large bomb that may be about to be planted beneath the housing market .
Last week , the government ’ s Climate Change Committee published its ‘ Sixth Carbon Budget ’ recommending what it thinks the government needs to do in order to meet its target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 .
Much comment revolved around the proposed ban on new gas boilers from 2033 , after which homes would have to be heated either by electric heat pump or possibly by hydrogen boilers , should the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distribution network for hydrogen .
But there is a far bigger nasty concealed in the document that was hardly reported : a proposal that the sale of properties be banned from 2028 unless they score at least a grade C in an energy performance certificate ( EPC ) .
This has serious implications because millions of British homes will not reach this level and can not be brought up to this standard at any reasonable cost .
I have serious doubts as to whether an EPC energy grade means anything , given that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how well an computer algorithm thinks it ought to perform , not a test of how it performs in practice .
Moreover , these reports seem highly sensitive to who is carrying them out – I hade two done on my home in the space of a year , one of which gave me a score of 42 out of 100 and the second , after I had replaced some windows with better-insulated ones , gave me a score of 32 .
The report informed me that even if I undertook all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of fitting solar panels and replacing the boiler , it was only going to bring me up to a score of 49 – a grade E. In other words , I could spend over £10,000 and still I wouldn ’ t be allowed to sell my house and nobody would be allowed to buy it .
Not only that , the Climate Change Committee recommends that mortgages shouldn ’ t be allowed on homes with a EPC rating of less than ‘ C ’ by 2033 .
So you , you won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have a mortgage on your home .
What are you supposed to do then ?
There are nine million homes in Britain which , like mine , have solid walls .
It is going to be virtually impossible to bring many of them up to a ‘ C ’ rating unless their walls are insulated .
You can do that ‘ cheaply ’ by stick insulation on the inside or outside , but even so that will cost – in the case of a three bedroom home – between £7000 and £13,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is fraught with problems .
If your house wasn ’ t built with a damp proof course – which applies to just about any house built before the 1920s – you could be trapping in damp .
More realistically , to achieve a grade ‘ C ’ rating you would have to undertake a complete refurbishment , stripping the property back to the bricks and starting again .
For millions of homeowners , that is not an option .
Has the Climate Change Committee thought for the moment of the repercussions of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ homes unsaleable ?
These unsaleable properties would be in addition , of course , to the many thousands of recently-built homes which , although they notionally have excellent energy performance , are unsaleable thanks to flammable cladding and insulation .
The post Britain ’ s new climate plan that could make millions of homes unsellable appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Few people, I fear, have spotted the very large bomb that may be about to be planted beneath the housing market.
Last week, the government’s Climate Change Committee published its ‘Sixth Carbon Budget’ recommending what it thinks the government needs to do in order to meet its target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Much comment revolved around the proposed ban on new gas boilers from 2033, after which homes would have to be heated either by electric heat pump or possibly by hydrogen boilers, should the government decide to repurpose the existing gas distribution network for hydrogen.
But there is a far bigger nasty concealed in the document that was hardly reported: a proposal that the sale of properties be banned from 2028 unless they score at least a grade C in an energy performance certificate (EPC).
This has serious implications because millions of British homes will not reach this level and cannot be brought up to this standard at any reasonable cost. I have serious doubts as to whether an EPC energy grade means anything, given that it is just a crude estimate of how well an computer algorithm thinks it ought to perform, not a test of how it performs in practice.
Moreover, these reports seem highly sensitive to who is carrying them out – I hade two done on my home in the space of a year, one of which gave me a score of 42 out of 100 and the second, after I had replaced some windows with better-insulated ones, gave me a score of 32. The report informed me that even if I undertook all the recommendations in the EPC, which consisted of fitting solar panels and replacing the boiler, it was only going to bring me up to a score of 49 – a grade E.
In other words, I could spend over £10,000 and still I wouldn’t be allowed to sell my house and nobody would be allowed to buy it. Not only that, the Climate Change Committee recommends that mortgages shouldn’t be allowed on homes with a EPC rating of less than ‘C’ by 2033. So you, you won’t be able to sell, or to have a mortgage on your home. What are you supposed to do then?
There are nine million homes in Britain which, like mine, have solid walls. It is going to be virtually impossible to bring many of them up to a ‘C’ rating unless their walls are insulated. You can do that ‘cheaply’ by stick insulation on the inside or outside, but even so that will cost – in the case of a three bedroom home – between £7000 and £13,000, according to Which. But it is fraught with problems. If your house wasn’t built with a damp proof course – which applies to just about any house built before the 1920s – you could be trapping in damp. More realistically, to achieve a grade ‘C’ rating you would have to undertake a complete refurbishment, stripping the property back to the bricks and starting again. For millions of homeowners, that is not an option.
Has the Climate Change Committee thought for the moment of the repercussions of its recommended policy: to make millions of homes unsaleable? These unsaleable properties would be in addition, of course, to the many thousands of recently-built homes which, although they notionally have excellent energy performance, are unsaleable thanks to flammable cladding and insulation.
The post Britain’s new climate plan that could make millions of homes unsellable appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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December 29, 2020 at 04:39AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--UK AND IRELAND AUTUMN TEMPERATURES HAVE STALLED SINCE 1990’S

This piece gives the details to show that the mean autumn temperatures in the UK and Ireland have not increased @ @ @ @ @ have they stalled ?
Global warming alarmists don ’ t want you to know this @ @ @ @ @ cycles that dominate regional climates on a decadal scale .
For Western Europe especially the @ @ @ @ @ ) has a significant impact .

This piece gives the details to show that the mean autumn temperatures in the UK and Ireland have not increased since 1995. So why have they stalled? Global warming alarmists don’t want you to know this, but there are oceanic cycles that dominate regional climates on a decadal scale. For Western Europe especially the Atlantic Meridional Overturn (AMO) has a significant impact.
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December 29, 2020 at 01:30AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Discovery boosts theory that life on Earth arose from RNA-DNA mix

Newly described chemical reaction could have assembled DNA building blocks before life forms and their enzymes existed .
LA JOLLA , CA–Chemists at Scripps Research have made a discovery that supports a surprising new view of how life originated on our planet .
In a study published in the chemistry journal Angewandte Chemie , they demonstrated that a simple compound called diamidophosphate ( DAP ) , which was plausibly present on Earth before life arose , could have chemically knitted together tiny DNA building blocks called deoxynucleosides into strands of primordial DNA .
The finding is the latest in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several years , pointing to the possibility that DNA and its close chemical cousin RNA arose together as products of similar chemical reactions , and that the first self-replicating molecules–the first life forms on Earth–were mixes of the two .
The discovery may also lead to new practical applications in chemistry and biology , but its main significance is that it addresses the age-old question of how life on Earth first arose .
In particular , it paves the way for more extensive studies of how self-replicating DNA-RNA mixes could have evolved and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeded the more mature biology of modern organisms .
“ This finding is an important step toward the development of a detailed chemical model of how the first life forms originated on Earth , ” says study senior author Ramanarayanan Krishnamurthy , PhD , associate professor of chemistry at Scripps Research .
The finding also nudges the field of origin-of-life chemistry away from the hypothesis that has dominated it in recent decades : The “ RNA World ” hypothesis posits that the first replicators were RNA-based , and that DNA arose only later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Krishnamurthy and others have doubted the RNA World hypothesis in part because RNA molecules may simply have been too “ sticky ” to serve as the first self-replicators .
A strand of RNA can attract other individual RNA building blocks , which stick to it to form a sort of mirror-image strand–each building block in the new strand binding to its complementary building block on the original , “ template ” strand .
If the new strand can detach from the template strand , and , by the same process , start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has achieved the feat of self-replication that underlies life .
But while RNA strands may be good at templating complementary strands , they are not so good at separating from these strands .
Modern organisms make enzymes that can force twinned strands of RNA–or DNA–to go their separate ways , thus enabling replication , but it is unclear how this could have been done in a world where enzymes didn ’ t yet exist .
Krishnamurthy and colleagues have shown in recent studies that “ chimeric ” molecular strands that are part DNA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get around this problem , because they can template complementary strands in a less-sticky way that permits them to separate relatively easily .
The chemists also have shown in widely cited papers in the past few years that the simple ribonucleoside and deoxynucleoside building blocks , of RNA and DNA respectively , could have arisen under very similar chemical conditions on the early Earth .
Moreover , in 2017 they reported that the organic compound DAP could have played the crucial role of modifying ribonucleosides and stringing them together into the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that DAP under similar conditions could have done the same for DNA .
“ We found , to our surprise , that using DAP to react with deoxynucleosides works better when the deoxynucleosides are not all the same but are instead mixes of different DNA ‘ letters ’ such as A and T , or G and C , like real DNA , ” says first author Eddy Jiménez , PhD , a postdoctoral research associate in the Krishnamurthy lab .
“ Now that we understand better how a primordial chemistry could have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we can start using it on mixes of ribonucleoside and deoxynucleoside building blocks to see what chimeric molecules are formed–and whether they can self-replicate and evolve , ” Krishnamurthy says .
He notes that the work may also have broad practical applications .
The artificial synthesis of DNA and RNA–for example in the “ PCR ” technique that underlies COVID-19 tests–amounts to a vast global business , but depends on enzymes that are relatively fragile and thus have many limitations .
Robust , enzyme-free chemical methods for making DNA and RNA may end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Krishnamurthy says .
“ Prebiotic Phosphorylation and Concomitant Oligomerization of Deoxynucleosides to form DNA ” was authored by Eddy Jiménez , Clémentine Gibard and Ramanarayanan Krishnamurthy .
Funding was provided by the Simons Foundation .

Newly described chemical reaction could have assembled DNA building blocks before life forms and their enzymes existed.
SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Research News
LA JOLLA, CA–Chemists at Scripps Research have made a discovery that supports a surprising new view of how life originated on our planet.
In a study published in the chemistry journal Angewandte Chemie, they demonstrated that a simple compound called diamidophosphate (DAP), which was plausibly present on Earth before life arose, could have chemically knitted together tiny DNA building blocks called deoxynucleosides into strands of primordial DNA.
The finding is the latest in a series of discoveries, over the past several years, pointing to the possibility that DNA and its close chemical cousin RNA arose together as products of similar chemical reactions, and that the first self-replicating molecules–the first life forms on Earth–were mixes of the two.
The discovery may also lead to new practical applications in chemistry and biology, but its main significance is that it addresses the age-old question of how life on Earth first arose. In particular, it paves the way for more extensive studies of how self-replicating DNA-RNA mixes could have evolved and spread on the primordial Earth and ultimately seeded the more mature biology of modern organisms.
“This finding is an important step toward the development of a detailed chemical model of how the first life forms originated on Earth,” says study senior author Ramanarayanan Krishnamurthy, PhD, associate professor of chemistry at Scripps Research.
The finding also nudges the field of origin-of-life chemistry away from the hypothesis that has dominated it in recent decades: The “RNA World” hypothesis posits that the first replicators were RNA-based, and that DNA arose only later as a product of RNA life forms.
Is RNA too sticky?
Krishnamurthy and others have doubted the RNA World hypothesis in part because RNA molecules may simply have been too “sticky” to serve as the first self-replicators.
A strand of RNA can attract other individual RNA building blocks, which stick to it to form a sort of mirror-image strand–each building block in the new strand binding to its complementary building block on the original, “template” strand. If the new strand can detach from the template strand, and, by the same process, start templating other new strands, then it has achieved the feat of self-replication that underlies life.
But while RNA strands may be good at templating complementary strands, they are not so good at separating from these strands. Modern organisms make enzymes that can force twinned strands of RNA–or DNA–to go their separate ways, thus enabling replication, but it is unclear how this could have been done in a world where enzymes didn’t yet exist.
A chimeric workaround
Krishnamurthy and colleagues have shown in recent studies that “chimeric” molecular strands that are part DNA and part RNA may have been able to get around this problem, because they can template complementary strands in a less-sticky way that permits them to separate relatively easily.
The chemists also have shown in widely cited papers in the past few years that the simple ribonucleoside and deoxynucleoside building blocks, of RNA and DNA respectively, could have arisen under very similar chemical conditions on the early Earth.
Moreover, in 2017 they reported that the organic compound DAP could have played the crucial role of modifying ribonucleosides and stringing them together into the first RNA strands. The new study shows that DAP under similar conditions could have done the same for DNA.
“We found, to our surprise, that using DAP to react with deoxynucleosides works better when the deoxynucleosides are not all the same but are instead mixes of different DNA ‘letters’ such as A and T, or G and C, like real DNA,” says first author Eddy Jiménez, PhD, a postdoctoral research associate in the Krishnamurthy lab.
“Now that we understand better how a primordial chemistry could have made the first RNAs and DNAs, we can start using it on mixes of ribonucleoside and deoxynucleoside building blocks to see what chimeric molecules are formed–and whether they can self-replicate and evolve,” Krishnamurthy says.
He notes that the work may also have broad practical applications. The artificial synthesis of DNA and RNA–for example in the “PCR” technique that underlies COVID-19 tests–amounts to a vast global business, but depends on enzymes that are relatively fragile and thus have many limitations. Robust, enzyme-free chemical methods for making DNA and RNA may end up being more attractive in many contexts, Krishnamurthy says.
###
“Prebiotic Phosphorylation and Concomitant Oligomerization of Deoxynucleosides to form DNA” was authored by Eddy Jiménez, Clémentine Gibard and Ramanarayanan Krishnamurthy. Funding was provided by the Simons Foundation.
From EurekAlert!
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Tuesday Open Thread

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Maintenance rolling out well so far. 🙂
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December 28, 2020 at 11:43PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Wind and solar are losing ground to gas

Wind and solar are losing ground to gas

The subsidies that never die — for wind and solar power — are back .
With Christmas coming on the Lame Duck Congress elected to throw untold additional billions at renewables .
What is amusing is that gas-fired power generation , a fossil fuel with no subsidy , is still growing faster than wind and solar .
Far from taking over , wind and solar are actually losing ground to fossil fuels in the American power capacity mix .
The last year we have comprehensive construction data for is 2018 , from the U.S. Energy Information Administration .
This was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a bit of a race on to build renewables before the subsidies stopped , which they were then scheduled to do .
( Unfortunately , due to the Lame Ducks this is no longer true . )
First we will look at the basic numbers , followed by some interesting factors .
We are talking about what is called electric power generating capacity , which is measured in megawatts or MW for short .
This is the ability to generate a million watts of juice .
A large power plant may run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2018 we built about 19,000 MW of gas fired generators , 9,000 MW of wind powered and 7,000 MW of utility scale solar .
( So-called “ behind the meter ” typically tiny solar is not included . )
So right away we built more gas , at 19,000 MW than the 16,000 MW of renewables .
Thus wind and solar ’ s fraction of America ’ s generating capacity actually went down , not up .
Renewables lost ground .
But this is just the tip of the difference .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce under ideal conditions , which is called “ nameplate capacity ” .
For solar these ideal conditions are basically a clear sky , with the sun overhead and no snow or dirt , etc.
, on the collector .
For wind they are typically a sustained air flow exceeding 30 miles per hour or so .
Note that these crucial conditions do not occur all that often .
This is why wind and solar are called “ intermittent ” , because they frequently produce far less power than their nameplate capacity ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In contrast , gas fired power runs most of the time , although it does need a certain amount of downtime for maintenance .
The difference between actual power generation and nameplate is called the “ capacity factor ” or CF for the generator .
The typical capacity factors for different generating technologies are pretty well known , although they can vary from machine to machine .
To be generous to renewables , let ’ s say that solar has a CF of 15 % and wind 40 % .
( The standard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has 80 % .
Applying these factors to our construction numbers gives the following actual generating capacities : So our new gas capacity is around 15,200 MW while new renewables are just 4,650 MW , which is 31 % or less than a third as much actual generating capacity .
Put another way , America increased its fossil fuel generating capacity by three times as much as it did for renewables .
Clearly renewables are falling behind fossil fuels , and by a lot .
Nor is 2018 unique .
Looking at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every case the actual generating capacity ( including CF ) added for gas fired generation has exceeded that for wind plus solar .
Renewables never gain ground over fossil fueled power , they always lose it .
Then there are grid scale battery systems , which are supposed to someday provide our juice when the intermittent renewables do not do so .
Total capacity added in 2018 was around 200 MW , or basically nothing .
Same for the prior years .
At this point batteries are just a specialized tiny contrivance used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need has arisen because of the unpredictably erratic nature of wind and solar generation .
As actual power supply systems , batteries do not yet exist , and may never exist because they are very expensive .
America is not moving toward wind and solar for power generation ; we are actually moving away from renewables .
You would never know this listening to the press and the politicians .

By David Wojick
The subsidies that never die — for wind and solar power — are back. With Christmas coming on the Lame Duck Congress elected to throw untold additional billions at renewables.
What is amusing is that gas-fired power generation, a fossil fuel with no subsidy, is still growing faster than wind and solar. Far from taking over, wind and solar are actually losing ground to fossil fuels in the American power capacity mix.
The last year we have comprehensive construction data for is 2018, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This was a good year to use because there was a bit of a race on to build renewables before the subsidies stopped, which they were then scheduled to do. (Unfortunately, due to the Lame Ducks this is no longer true.)
First we will look at the basic numbers, followed by some interesting factors. We are talking about what is called electric power generating capacity, which is measured in megawatts or MW for short. This is the ability to generate a million watts of juice. A large power plant may run around 600 MW.
For starters, in 2018 we built about 19,000 MW of gas fired generators, 9,000 MW of wind powered and 7,000 MW of utility scale solar. (So-called “behind the meter” typically tiny solar is not included.)
So right away we built more gas, at 19,000 MW than the 16,000 MW of renewables. Thus wind and solar’s fraction of America’s generating capacity actually went down, not up. Renewables lost ground.
But this is just the tip of the difference. These numbers are just what the generators can produce under ideal conditions, which is called “nameplate capacity”.
For solar these ideal conditions are basically a clear sky, with the sun overhead and no snow or dirt, etc., on the collector. For wind they are typically a sustained air flow exceeding 30 miles per hour or so. Note that these crucial conditions do not occur all that often.
This is why wind and solar are called “intermittent”, because they frequently produce far less power than their nameplate capacity; often they produce none at all. In contrast, gas fired power runs most of the time, although it does need a certain amount of downtime for maintenance.
The difference between actual power generation and nameplate is called the “capacity factor” or CF for the generator. The typical capacity factors for different generating technologies are pretty well known, although they can vary from machine to machine.
To be generous to renewables, let’s say that solar has a CF of 15% and wind 40%. (The standard numbers are lower.) Gas easily has 80%. Applying these factors to our construction numbers gives the following actual generating capacities:
Gas: 19,000 x 0.8 = 15,200 MW
Wind: 9,000 x 0.4 = 3,600 MW
Solar: 7,000 x 0.15 = 1,050 MW
So our new gas capacity is around 15,200 MW while new renewables are just 4,650 MW, which is 31% or less than a third as much actual generating capacity.
Put another way, America increased its fossil fuel generating capacity by three times as much as it did for renewables. Clearly renewables are falling behind fossil fuels, and by a lot.
Nor is 2018 unique. Looking at the six years 2013 thru 2018, in every case the actual generating capacity (including CF) added for gas fired generation has exceeded that for wind plus solar. Renewables never gain ground over fossil fueled power, they always lose it.
Then there are grid scale battery systems, which are supposed to someday provide our juice when the intermittent renewables do not do so. Total capacity added in 2018 was around 200 MW, or basically nothing. Same for the prior years.
At this point batteries are just a specialized tiny contrivance used to maintain grid stability. Ironically this need has arisen because of the unpredictably erratic nature of wind and solar generation. As actual power supply systems, batteries do not yet exist, and may never exist because they are very expensive.
America is not moving toward wind and solar for power generation; we are actually moving away from renewables. You would never know this listening to the press and the politicians.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Best wishes, for the New Year

Best wishes, for the New Year

I received the most delightful Christmas present : a poetry book published 7 years ago by Christian Bartholomew Wright .
I am not usually big on possessions — but books : I hoard them .
A problem is that my whole life I have moved every so many years — to another place — and then I sometimes can ’ t find particular books any more .
Which can be so annoying .
What is it about some books ?
What is it about some words ?
That I so love .
About 18 months ago — to be precise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on 23rd June 2019 — I walked through Noosa National Park with my drone .
I was planning to learn how to use some drone mapping software by programming Skido to make an interactive map of the rocks at Granite Bay .
I did make a map , though I can ’ t find it anymore .
Then I sat on that beach and watched the waves .
That morning the waves seemed to toss out lace , and then retracted it .
I wondered , as I sat there , how would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in words .
Then I received the poetry book this Christmas , and there are the words describing what I saw that morning , but with a changed context : The sea is folding her dress , smoothing out the wrinkles , She crockets her skirt in white foam doilies , She pushes the hems down her legs And pulls the slip up from her knees , But in the ocean ’ s tired wash , Her dress is threadbare and older than books .
My grandmother once taught me how to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea where they are now — the doilies .
I also lose books , and maps filed on my computer .
And the years , as we get older , they seem shorter .
After tomorrow it will be a new year .
This year , I have at least found some words that I was looking for last year .
And may we always be allowed to just sit at the beach .

I received the most delightful Christmas present: a poetry book published 7 years ago by Christian Bartholomew Wright.
I am not usually big on possessions — but books: I hoard them. A problem is that my whole life I have moved every so many years — to another place — and then I sometimes can’t find particular books any more. Which can be so annoying.
What is it about some books? What is it about some words? That I so love.
About 18 months ago — to be precise it was very early in the morning on 23rd June 2019 — I walked through Noosa National Park with my drone. I was planning to learn how to use some drone mapping software by programming Skido to make an interactive map of the rocks at Granite Bay.
I did make a map, though I can’t find it anymore. Then I sat on that beach and watched the waves. That morning the waves seemed to toss out lace, and then retracted it. I wondered, as I sat there, how would one ever describe the beauty of it, in words.
Then I received the poetry book this Christmas, and there are the words describing what I saw that morning, but with a changed context:
Books The sea is folding her dress, smoothing out the wrinkles,
She crockets her skirt in white foam doilies,
She pushes the hems down her legs
And pulls the slip up from her knees,
But in the ocean’s tired wash,
Her dress is threadbare and older than books.
My grandmother once taught me how to crochet doilies. I’ve no idea where they are now — the doilies. I also lose books, and maps filed on my computer. And the years, as we get older, they seem shorter.
After tomorrow it will be a new year. This year, I have at least found some words that I was looking for last year.
Happy New Year!
And may we always be allowed to just sit at the beach.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Implementation Of The Green New Deal

Implementation Of The Green New Deal

About one year ago , China started circulating pictures of people dropping dead in the streets , hazmat suits , @ @ @ @ @ their homes – in order to stop the spread of some “ novel ” virus @ @ @ @ @ immunity … Continue reading →

About one year ago, China started circulating pictures of people dropping dead in the streets, hazmat suits, and government welding people into their homes – in order to stop the spread of some “novel” virus “which no one had immunity … Continue reading →
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December 29, 2020 at 04:42PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--And Lockdown Crazy California Jumps Into the Lead

Just more evidence of some of the biggest policy failures in history .
Likely the French Laundry dinner was the @ @ @ @ @ it all in motion .

State/Territory Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days
California 97 Tennessee 92.9 Arizona 80 Oklahoma 68.8 Alabama 67.5 West Virginia 66.7 Delaware 65.2 Nevada 62.9 Arkansas 62.6 Indiana 62.6 Utah 62 New York* 61.1 Pennsylvania 60.5 Mississippi 60.4 Georgia 59.7 Ohio 58.3 Rhode Island 57.4 Massachusetts 57.2 New Mexico 54.3 North Carolina 51.3 New York City* 51.1 Idaho 50 Kentucky 47.1 New Jersey 46.1 Florida 45.7 Kansas 45.4 New Hampshire 44.8 South Carolina 43 South Dakota 43 Missouri 42.9 Texas 42.8 Illinois 42.3 Virginia 42.3 Louisiana 41.7 Nebraska 41.3 Colorado 40 Connecticut 39.9 Wisconsin 38.9 Maryland 38.1 Wyoming 38 Alaska 36.5 Iowa 35 Montana 34.9 District of Columbia 32.4 Maine 32.3 Minnesota 29.7 Michigan 29 North Dakota 26.9 Washington 23.8 Oregon 23 Puerto Rico 21.5 Vermont 13.4 Virgin Islands 9.1 Guam 7.6 Hawaii 7.5 Northern Mariana Islands 1.5 American Samoa 0 Federated States of Micronesia 0 Palau 0 Republic of Marshall Islands 0 Data source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days
Just more evidence of some of the biggest policy failures in history.
Likely the French Laundry dinner was the super spreader event that put it all in motion.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Answers Please, Mr Jackson!

Answers Please, Mr Jackson!

There ’ s an interesting Twitter thread here , concerning the Royal Institution Christmas Lecture ; Several have responded with @ @ @ @ @ appeals to authority .
But particularly telling is reply from the presenter , Chris Jackson @ @ @ @ @ have noticed that Jackson fails to respond to either John ’ s or my replies @ @ @ @ @ further irrelevant comments further down the thread .
Of course , he is welcome to @ @ @ @ @ who criticises him .
But given that he has bothered to respond in the first @ @ @ @ @ thought he would have easily shot us down in flames without the slightest effort , @ @ @ @ @ on his side .
The fact that he has declined to tells us all we @ @ @ @ @ lack of science behind the lecture .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
There’s an interesting Twitter thread here, concerning the Royal Institution Christmas Lecture ;
https://twitter.com/dodders75/status/1343956557466394628
Several have responded with the usual ad homs and appeals to authority.
But particularly telling is reply from the presenter, Chris Jackson, himself:
You will have noticed that Jackson fails to respond to either John’s or my replies, although he does make further irrelevant comments further down the thread.
Of course, he is welcome to ignore the views of anybody who criticises him. But given that he has bothered to respond in the first place, you might have thought he would have easily shot us down in flames without the slightest effort, if facts were so obviously on his side.
The fact that he has declined to tells us all we need to know about the lack of science behind the lecture.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
https://ift.tt/38Ht88M
December 29, 2020 at 04:24PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--This Date In 1974

This Date In 1974

A number of climatologists , whose job it is to keep an eye on long‐term weather changes , have lately @ @ @ @ @ benign climate to which we have grown accustomed .
They point to signs both great @ @ @ @ @ trend since World War II ) and quaint ( the southward retreat from Nebraska of @ @ @ @ @ support their claim that the coming years will feature colder , more erratic weather .
@ @ @ @ @ reputable researchers in Japan , Europe and the U.S. , have so worried policy‐makers that @ @ @ @ @ a meeting of the National Academy of Sciences proposed the evacuation of some six million @ @ @ @ @ in the Sahel region of Africa .

A number of climatologists, whose job it is to keep an eye on long‐term weather changes, have lately been predicting deterioration of the benign climate to which we have grown accustomed. They point to signs both great (a steady global cooling trend since World War II) and quaint (the southward retreat from Nebraska of the warmth‐loving armadillo) to support their claim that the coming years will feature colder, more erratic weather.
Some recent warnings, from reputable researchers in Japan, Europe and the U.S., have so worried policy‐makers that last January certain scientists at a meeting of the National Academy of Sciences proposed the evacuation of some six million people from their parched homelands in the Sahel region of Africa.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--I am Outraged! Stop the dictatorship!

I am Outraged! Stop the dictatorship!

I am outraged at the outright and blatant corruption in this election .
_____________ I am outraged at the outright and blatant corruption in this election .
I am outraged at how the media has ignored and covered up that corruption .
I am outraged at the attempts to steal this election , not only from President Trump , but from the American people .
I am outraged that 477 counties think they have the right to lord it over all 3,006 counties in the United States .
President Trump has labeled this election as ‘ outright fraud .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assault and siege , ” said President Trump .
I am outraged that the media keeps calling President Trumps accusations of fraud “ baseless , ” saying that there is no evidence of widespread fraud .
“ Nevada sent out millions of ballots to ‘ voters , ’ “ Whether they were dead or alive , ” said President Trump .
“ Wisconsin sent absentee ballot-request forms to all voters , said Trump .
“ This opened the flood gates to massive fraud.
” “ Pennsylvania , Michigan , Nevada , Georgia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowed almost anyone to get an absentee ballot and cast their ballot without showing any ID .
The voting took place on the honor system , no identification of any kind was required.
” “ The only conceivable reason why you would block common-sense to verify legal eligibility for voting , is you are trying to encourage , enable , solicit , or carry out fraud , ” the President said .
“ It ’ s a widely known fact that the voter rolls are packed with people who are not eligible to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , have moved out of their state , and even are non-citizens of our country.
” “ Dozens of counties in the key swing states have more registered voters on the rolls than they have voting-age citizens , including 67 counties in Michigan.
” “ All of this is evidence , ” said President Trump .
“ In Wisconsin , the State ’ s Board of Elections could not confirm the residency of more than 100,000 people , but repeatedly refused to remove those names from its voter rolls before the election .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” “ In some cases , poll watchers were locked out of the building .
“ In other cases , people who came to vote , people who were happy to be exercising their right to vote , and went up to vote , were told that they can ’ t vote .
“ I ’ m sorry , they were told , I ’ m sorry , you have already voted , by mail-in ballot .
Congratulations .
We received a ballot , so you can no longer vote.
” “ This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all over the country.
” “ Many people received two , three , and even four ballots .
They were sent to dead people by the thousands .
In fact dead people – and we have many examples – filled out ballots , made applications , and then voted.
” “ Millions of votes were cast illegally in the swing states alone .
And if that ’ s the case , the results in the swing states must be overturned , and overturned immediately.
” And finally , as I said earlier , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they have the right to lord it over all 3,006 counties in the United States .
Even with the “ votes in question ” Trump won 2,496 of those counties .
This is exactly why our Founding Fathers created the Electoral College , so that a handful of highly populated areas would not be able to establish a dictatorship over the entire country .
It is time for the electors to step and do the right thing .
The post I am Outraged !
Stop the dictatorship !
appeared first on Ice Age @ @

I am outraged at the outright and blatant corruption in this election.
_____________
I am outraged
Robert Felix
I am outraged at the outright and blatant corruption in this election.
I am outraged at how the media has ignored and covered up that corruption.
I am outraged at the attempts to steal this election, not only from President Trump, but from the American people.
I am outraged that 477 counties think they have the right to lord it over all 3,006 counties in the United States.
President Trump has labeled this election as ‘outright fraud.
“Our election system is now under coordinated assault and siege,” said President Trump.
I am outraged that the media keeps calling President Trumps accusations of fraud “baseless,” saying that there is no evidence of widespread fraud.
“Nevada sent out millions of ballots to ‘voters,’ “Whether they were dead or alive,” said President Trump.
No evidence?
“Wisconsin sent absentee ballot-request forms to all voters, said Trump. “This opened the flood gates to massive fraud.”
No evidence?
“Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and most other states, allowed almost anyone to get an absentee ballot and cast their ballot without showing any ID. The voting took place on the honor system, no identification of any kind was required.”
No evidence?
“The only conceivable reason why you would block common-sense to verify legal eligibility for voting, is you are trying to encourage, enable, solicit, or carry out fraud,” the President said.
“It’s a widely known fact that the voter rolls are packed with people who are not eligible to vote, including those who are deceased, have moved out of their state, and even are non-citizens of our country.”
No evidence?
“Dozens of counties in the key swing states have more registered voters on the rolls than they have voting-age citizens, including 67 counties in Michigan.”
“All of this is evidence,” said President Trump.
“In Wisconsin, the State’s Board of Elections could not confirm the residency of more than 100,000 people, but repeatedly refused to remove those names from its voter rolls before the election. They knew why. Nobody else did.”
No evidence?
“In some cases, poll watchers were locked out of the building.
“In other cases, people who came to vote, people who were happy to be exercising their right to vote, and went up to vote, were told that they can’t vote. “I’m sorry, they were told, I’m sorry, you have already voted, by mail-in ballot. Congratulations. We received a ballot, so you can no longer vote.”
“This happened tens of thousands of times, all over the country.”
No evidence?
“Many people received two, three, and even four ballots. They were sent to dead people by the thousands. In fact dead people – and we have many examples – filled out ballots, made applications, and then voted.”
No evidence?
“Millions of votes were cast illegally in the swing states alone. And if that’s the case, the results in the swing states must be overturned, and overturned immediately.”
And finally, as I said earlier, I am outraged that 477 counties think they have the right to lord it over all 3,006 counties in the United States. Even with the “votes in question” Trump won 2,496 of those counties.
This is exactly why our Founding Fathers created the Electoral College, so that a handful of highly populated areas would not be able to establish a dictatorship over the entire country.
It is time for the electors to step and do the right thing.
Stop the dictatorship!
# # #
The post I am Outraged! Stop the dictatorship! appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 29, 2020 at 02:16PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Heavy snow for Iowa, Southern Wisconsin, and West-Central Michigan

Also , heavy snow for the Cascades and the Northern Intermountain Region .
Winter weather advisories and heavy snow warnings for parts of Wyoming , Nebraska , Kansas , Colorado , North Dakota , South Dakota , Missouri , Indiana , Illinois , Minnesota , Oregon , Washington , Idaho and Montana .
Whoa !
That ’ s 17 states !
Ain ’ t global warming a bear ?
Tue Dec 29 2020- A strong storm over the Central Rockies moving northeastward to Eastern Canada by Thursday morning will produce snow over parts of the Great Basin , Southwest , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Tuesday , which will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes , and Western Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening .
An area of rain/freezing rain and sleet will develop over parts of the Central Plains , moving into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley , likewise by Tuesday night .
The rain will change over to snow over parts of Western Texas late Wednesday afternoon , continuing into Thursday morning .
On Wednesday , rain and snow will move into parts of the Northeast .
There is a large area of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday into Wednesday .
The snow and rain/freezing rain will produce hazardous driving conditions .
Snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches will develop over parts of Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and parts of West-Central Michigan .
Meanwhile , a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday into Thursday .
Onshore flow associated with the boundary will stream moisture into the Northwest from the Pacific .
Late on Tuesday , rain will start to develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest and snow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ snow will move into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region .
Later on Wednesday , coastal rain and higher elevation snow will move into parts of Northern California .
By Thursday , snow moves into parts of the Great Basin .
Snowfall amounts will be 12 to 18 inches over the Cascades and about 12 inches over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region .
The post Heavy snow for Iowa , Southern Wisconsin , and West-Central Michigan appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Also, heavy snow for the Cascades and the Northern Intermountain Region.
Winter weather advisories and heavy snow warnings for parts of Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana.
Whoa! That’s 17 states! Ain’t global warming a bear?
Tue Dec 29 2020- A strong storm over the Central Rockies moving northeastward to Eastern Canada by Thursday morning will produce snow over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, Central/Southern Rockies, and the Central/Northern Plains on Tuesday, which will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, and Western Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening.
An area of rain/freezing rain and sleet will develop over parts of the Central Plains, moving into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, likewise by Tuesday night. The rain will change over to snow over parts of Western Texas late Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Thursday morning.
On Wednesday, rain and snow will move into parts of the Northeast.
There is a large area of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings over the Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday into Wednesday. The snow and rain/freezing rain will produce hazardous driving conditions.
Snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches will develop over parts of Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and parts of West-Central Michigan. Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday into Thursday. Onshore flow associated with the boundary will stream moisture into the Northwest from the Pacific. Late on Tuesday, rain will start to develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest and snow at higher elevations. By Wednesday, snow will move into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region.
Later on Wednesday, coastal rain and higher elevation snow will move into parts of Northern California.
By Thursday, snow moves into parts of the Great Basin. Snowfall amounts will be 12 to 18 inches over the Cascades and about 12 inches over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region.
The snow will produce hazardous driving conditions.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
https://www.weather.gov/abr/
https://www.weather.gov/
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December 29, 2020 at 02:16PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Record cold in Siberia – For an entire week!

The expression “ Siberian frosts ” has long been heard , but this time the frosts are severe even for Siberia .
Average daily air temperatures are below the usual value by 10-12 , and in the southern regions as much as 20 degrees below the usual value !
On the morning of December 29 , the air temperature in the Kemerovo region reached -42 degrees , in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and in the Irkutsk region the air cooled down to -46 degrees .
And in Evenkia down to -51 degrees .
Such weather has been holding for a week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are recorded here .
On December 28 , records were broken in the Kemerovo region : in Tisul the thermometers showed -43.6 degrees , in Kemerovo -45.4 , in Novokuznetsk -40.6 degrees .
In the Altai Territory , Barnaul ( -40.1 ) , Biysk ( -43.4 ) , Zmeinogorsk ( -38.8 ) – all were included in the list of record holders .
According to forecasters , abnormal cold weather will linger in Siberia until the end of the week , and temperatures will remain abnormally low .
Thanks to Victor for this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – For an entire week !
appeared first on Ice Age Now .

The expression “Siberian frosts” has long been heard, but this time the frosts are severe even for Siberia.
Average daily air temperatures are below the usual value by 10-12, and in the southern regions as much as 20 degrees below the usual value!
On the morning of December 29, the air temperature in the Kemerovo region reached -42 degrees, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and in the Irkutsk region the air cooled down to -46 degrees. And in Evenkia down to -51 degrees.
Such weather has been holding for a week. Every day, record low temperatures are recorded here. On December 28, records were broken in the Kemerovo region: in Tisul the thermometers showed -43.6 degrees, in Kemerovo -45.4, in Novokuznetsk -40.6 degrees. In the Altai Territory, Barnaul (-40.1), Biysk (-43.4), Zmeinogorsk (-38.8) – all were included in the list of record holders.
According to forecasters, abnormal cold weather will linger in Siberia until the end of the week, and temperatures will remain abnormally low.
News Agency “Meteonosti” Tuesday, December 29
http://www.hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=201229123404
Thanks to Victor for this link
The post Record cold in Siberia – For an entire week! appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 29, 2020 at 02:02PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Model used to evaluate lockdowns was flawed

In a recent study , researchers from Imperial College London developed a model to assess the effect of different measures used to curb the spread of the coronavirus .
However , the model had fundamental shortcomings and can not be used to draw the published conclusions , claim Swedish researchers from Lund University , and other institutions , in the journal Nature .
WATCH : Three reasons why mathematical models failed to predict the spread of the coronavirus – https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=nwT8_CyIcSI The results from Imperial indicated that it was almost exclusively the complete societal lockdown that suppressed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spring .
The study estimated the effects of different measures such as social distancing , self-isolating , closing schools , banning public events and the lockdown itself .
“ As the measures were introduced at roughly the same time over a few weeks in March , the mortality data used simply does not contain enough information to differentiate their individual effects .
We have demontrated this by conducting a mathematical analysis .
Using this as a basis , we then ran simulations using Imperial College ’ s original code to illustrate how the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results , ” explains Kristian Soltesz , associate professor in automatic control at Lund University and first author of the article .
The group ’ s interest in the Imperial College model was roused by the fact that it explained almost all of the reduction in transmission during the spring via lockdowns in ten of the eleven countries modelled .
The exception was Sweden , which never introduced a lockdown .
“ In Sweden the model offered an entirely different measure as an explanation to the reduction – a measure that appeared almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seemed almost too good to be true that an effective lockdown was introduced in every country except one , while another measure appeared to be unusually effective in this country ” , notes Soltesz .
Soltesz is careful to point out that it is entirely plausible that individual measures had an effect , but that the model could not be used to determine how effective they were .
“ The various interventions do not appear to work in isolation from one another , but are often dependent upon each other .
A change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intervention influences the effect of other interventions .
How much and in what way is harder to know , and requires different skills and collaboration ” , says Anna Jöud , associate professor in epidemiology at Lund University and co-author of the study .
Analyses of models from Imperial College and others highlight the importance of epidemiological models being reviewed , according to the authors .
“ There is a major focus in the debate on sources of data and their reliability , but an almost total lack of systematic review of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parameters and data .
This is just as important , especially when governments across the globe are using dynamic models as a basis for decisions ” , Soltesz and Jöud point out .
The first step is to carry out a correct analysis of the model ’ s sensitivities .
If they pose too great a problem then more reliable data is needed , often combined with a less complex model structure .
“ With a lot at stake , it is wise to be humble when faced with fundamental limitations .
Dynamic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take into account the uncertainty of the assumptions on which they are based and the data they are led by .
If this is not the case , the results are on a par with assumptions or guesses ” , concludes Soltesz .

[from the duuuhhh files~cr]
LUND UNIVERSITY
Research News
In a recent study, researchers from Imperial College London developed a model to assess the effect of different measures used to curb the spread of the coronavirus. However, the model had fundamental shortcomings and cannot be used to draw the published conclusions, claim Swedish researchers from Lund University, and other institutions, in the journal Nature.
WATCH: Three reasons why mathematical models failed to predict the spread of the coronavirus – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwT8_CyIcSI
The results from Imperial indicated that it was almost exclusively the complete societal lockdown that suppressed the wave of infections in Europe during spring.
The study estimated the effects of different measures such as social distancing, self-isolating, closing schools, banning public events and the lockdown itself.
“As the measures were introduced at roughly the same time over a few weeks in March, the mortality data used simply does not contain enough information to differentiate their individual effects. We have demontrated this by conducting a mathematical analysis. Using this as a basis, we then ran simulations using Imperial College’s original code to illustrate how the model’s sensitivity leads to unreliable results,” explains Kristian Soltesz, associate professor in automatic control at Lund University and first author of the article.
The group’s interest in the Imperial College model was roused by the fact that it explained almost all of the reduction in transmission during the spring via lockdowns in ten of the eleven countries modelled. The exception was Sweden, which never introduced a lockdown.
“In Sweden the model offered an entirely different measure as an explanation to the reduction – a measure that appeared almost ineffective in the other countries. It seemed almost too good to be true that an effective lockdown was introduced in every country except one, while another measure appeared to be unusually effective in this country”, notes Soltesz.
Soltesz is careful to point out that it is entirely plausible that individual measures had an effect, but that the model could not be used to determine how effective they were.
“The various interventions do not appear to work in isolation from one another, but are often dependent upon each other. A change in behaviour as a result of one intervention influences the effect of other interventions. How much and in what way is harder to know, and requires different skills and collaboration”, says Anna Jöud, associate professor in epidemiology at Lund University and co-author of the study.
Analyses of models from Imperial College and others highlight the importance of epidemiological models being reviewed, according to the authors.
“There is a major focus in the debate on sources of data and their reliability, but an almost total lack of systematic review of the sensitivity of different models in terms of parameters and data. This is just as important, especially when governments across the globe are using dynamic models as a basis for decisions”, Soltesz and Jöud point out.
The first step is to carry out a correct analysis of the model’s sensitivities. If they pose too great a problem then more reliable data is needed, often combined with a less complex model structure.
“With a lot at stake, it is wise to be humble when faced with fundamental limitations. Dynamic models are usable as long as they take into account the uncertainty of the assumptions on which they are based and the data they are led by. If this is not the case, the results are on a par with assumptions or guesses”, concludes Soltesz.
###
From EurekAlert!
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-29--Noctilucent Clouds are Missing

Noctilucent Clouds are Missing

Dec. 28 , 2020 : Something strange is happening 50 miles above Antarctica .
Or rather , not happening .
@ @ @ @ @ , which normally blanket the frozen continent in December , are almost completely missing .
@ @ @ @ @ s AIM spacecraft compare Christmas Eve 2019 with Christmas Eve 2020 : “ The comparison @ @ @ @ @ says Cora Randall of the University of Colorado ’ s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space @ @ @ @ @ frequencies are close to zero this year.
” NLCs are Earth ’ s highest clouds @ @ @ @ @ wisps of water vapor rise up from the poles to the edge of space .
@ @ @ @ @ meteor dust 83 km ( ~50 miles ) above Earth ’ s surface creates beautiful @ @ @ @ @ from November to February in the south , and May to August in the north @ @ @ @ @ Noctilucent clouds form during summer .
And that ’ s the problem .
Although summer @ @ @ @ @ week…

Spaceweather.com
Dec. 28, 2020: Something strange is happening 50 miles above Antarctica. Or rather, not happening. Noctilucent clouds (NLCs), which normally blanket the frozen continent in December, are almost completely missing. These images from NASA’s AIM spacecraft compare Christmas Eve 2019 with Christmas Eve 2020:
“The comparison really is astounding,” says Cora Randall of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. “Noctilucent cloud frequencies are close to zero this year.”
NLCs are Earth’s highest clouds. They form when summertime wisps of water vapor rise up from the poles to the edge of space. Water crystallizing around specks of meteor dust 83 km (~50 miles) above Earth’s surface creates beautiful electric-blue structures, typically visible from November to February in the south, and May to August in the north.
A crucial point: Noctilucent clouds form during summer. And that’s the problem. Although summer officially started in Antarctica one week…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Study suggests great earthquakes as cause of Arctic warming

The study also says there have been two – count em !
two !
– periods of warming in the last 100 years .
“ First in the 1920s and ’ 30s , and then beginning in 1980 and continuing to this day.
” Looks like humans may not be at fault after all .
The study also ties into a post on this website just three days ago : Surprise !
Surprise !
Any Greenland melting is….volcanic I ’ m assuming that someone will soon find a connection between the earthquakes and the volcanic activity .
Study suggests great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ researcher from MIPT has proposed a new explanation for the Arctic ’ s rapid warming .
In his recent paper in Geosciences , he suggests that the warming could have been triggered by a series of great earthquakes .
Global warming is one of the pressing issues faced by civilization .
It is widely believed to be caused by human activity , which increases the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere .
However , this view does not explain why temperatures sometimes rise fairly abruptly .
In the Arctic , one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ release of methane from permafrost and metastable gas hydrates in the shelf zone .
Since researchers began to monitor temperatures in the Arctic , the region has seen two periods of abrupt warming : first in the 1920s and ’ 30s , and then beginning in 1980 and continuing to this day .
Leopold Lobkovsky , who authored the study reported in this story , is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the head of the MIPT Laboratory for Geophysical Research of the Arctic and Continental Margins of the World @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientist hypothesized that the unexplained abrupt temperature changes could have been triggered by geodynamic factors .
Specifically , he pointed to a series of great earthquakes in the Aleutian Arc , which is the closest seismically active area to the Arctic .
To test his hypothesis , Lobkovsky had to answer three questions .
First , did the dates of the great earthquakes coincide with temperature jumps ?
Second , what is the mechanism that enables the lithospheric disturbances to propagate over more than 2,000 kilometers from the Aleutian Islands to the Arctic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these disturbances intensify methane emissions ?
The answer to the first question came from historical data analysis .
It turned out that the Aleutian Arc was indeed the site of two series of great earthquakes in the 20th century ( more details below the text ) .
Each of them preceded an abrupt rise in temperature by about 15 to 20 years .
It took a model of lithospheric excitation dynamics to answer the second question .
The model used by the researcher describes the propagation of so-called tectonic waves and predicts that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per year .
This agrees with the delay between each of the great earthquake series and the subsequent temperature hike , as it took the disturbances 15 to 20 years to get transmitted over 2,000 kilometers .
To answer the third question , the researcher proposed the following explanation : The deformation waves arriving in the shelf zone cause minor additional stresses in the lithosphere , which are sufficient to disrupt the internal structure of the metastable gas hydrates and permafrost storing captured methane .
This releases methane into the water of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warming in the region due to the greenhouse effect .
“ There is a clear correlation between the great earthquakes in the Aleutian Arc and the phases of climate warming .
A mechanism exists for physically transmitting the stresses in the lithosphere at the appropriate velocities .
And these added stresses are capable of destroying metastable gas hydrates and permafrost , releasing methane .
Each of the three components in this scheme is logical and lends itself to mathematical and physical explanation .
Importantly , it explains a known fact — the abrupt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — which remained unaccounted for by the previous models , ” Lobkovsky commented .
According to the researcher , his model will benefit from discussion and will likely be improved , and there is much to be done in order to confirm or rule out the proposed mechanism .
The research reported in this story was carried out at MIPT with the support of the Russian Science Foundation , grant No .
20-17-00140 .
Two great earthquake series .
The first one started with a magnitude 8 earthquake in 1899 in the eastern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by two more great earthquakes in the western part of the islands , with magnitudes of 8.3 and 8.4 .
The second series began with an 8.6 magnitude earthquake in 1957 , followed by the 9.3 magnitude 1964 Alaskan earthquake .
The following year , an 8.7 magnitude earthquake shook the western part of the arc .
Each of these devastating seismic events had underground sources spanning hundreds of kilometers .
Note : The Aleutian Islands are an archipelago comprising dozens of islands with 40 active and 17 dormant volcanoes Thanks to Jimmy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests great earthquakes as cause of Arctic warming appeared first on Ice Age Now .

The study also says there have been two – count em! two! – periods of warming in the last 100 years. “First in the 1920s and ’30s, and then beginning in 1980 and continuing to this day.”
Looks like humans may not be at fault after all.
The study also ties into a post on this website just three days ago: Surprise! Surprise! Any Greenland melting is….volcanic I’m assuming that someone will soon find a connection between the earthquakes and the volcanic activity.
____________
Study suggests great earthquakes as cause of Arctic warming
MOSCOW INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS AND TECHNOLOGY
Research News
A researcher from MIPT has proposed a new explanation for the Arctic’s rapid warming. In his recent paper in Geosciences, he suggests that the warming could have been triggered by a series of great earthquakes.
Global warming is one of the pressing issues faced by civilization. It is widely believed to be caused by human activity, which increases the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, this view does not explain why temperatures sometimes rise fairly abruptly.
In the Arctic, one of the factors driving climate warming is the release of methane from permafrost and metastable gas hydrates in the shelf zone. Since researchers began to monitor temperatures in the Arctic, the region has seen two periods of abrupt warming: first in the 1920s and ’30s, and then beginning in 1980 and continuing to this day.
Leopold Lobkovsky, who authored the study reported in this story, is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the head of the MIPT Laboratory for Geophysical Research of the Arctic and Continental Margins of the World Ocean. In his paper, the scientist hypothesized that the unexplained abrupt temperature changes could have been triggered by geodynamic factors. Specifically, he pointed to a series of great earthquakes in the Aleutian Arc, which is the closest seismically active area to the Arctic.
To test his hypothesis, Lobkovsky had to answer three questions. First, did the dates of the great earthquakes coincide with temperature jumps? Second, what is the mechanism that enables the lithospheric disturbances to propagate over more than 2,000 kilometers from the Aleutian Islands to the Arctic shelf region? Third, how do these disturbances intensify methane emissions?
The answer to the first question came from historical data analysis. It turned out that the Aleutian Arc was indeed the site of two series of great earthquakes in the 20th century (more details below the text). Each of them preceded an abrupt rise in temperature by about 15 to 20 years.
It took a model of lithospheric excitation dynamics to answer the second question. The model used by the researcher describes the propagation of so-called tectonic waves and predicts that they should travel at about 100 kilometers per year. This agrees with the delay between each of the great earthquake series and the subsequent temperature hike, as it took the disturbances 15 to 20 years to get transmitted over 2,000 kilometers.
To answer the third question, the researcher proposed the following explanation: The deformation waves arriving in the shelf zone cause minor additional stresses in the lithosphere, which are sufficient to disrupt the internal structure of the metastable gas hydrates and permafrost storing captured methane. This releases methane into the water of the shelf and atmosphere, leading to climate warming in the region due to the greenhouse effect.
“There is a clear correlation between the great earthquakes in the Aleutian Arc and the phases of climate warming. A mechanism exists for physically transmitting the stresses in the lithosphere at the appropriate velocities. And these added stresses are capable of destroying metastable gas hydrates and permafrost, releasing methane. Each of the three components in this scheme is logical and lends itself to mathematical and physical explanation. Importantly, it explains a known fact — the abrupt rise in temperature anomalies in the Arctic — which remained unaccounted for by the previous models,” Lobkovsky commented.
According to the researcher, his model will benefit from discussion and will likely be improved, and there is much to be done in order to confirm or rule out the proposed mechanism.
###
The research reported in this story was carried out at MIPT with the support of the Russian Science Foundation, grant No. 20-17-00140.
Two great earthquake series. The first one started with a magnitude 8 earthquake in 1899 in the eastern part of the Aleutian Arc, followed by two more great earthquakes in the western part of the islands, with magnitudes of 8.3 and 8.4. The second series began with an 8.6 magnitude earthquake in 1957, followed by the 9.3 magnitude 1964 Alaskan earthquake. The following year, an 8.7 magnitude earthquake shook the western part of the arc. Each of these devastating seismic events had underground sources spanning hundreds of kilometers.
Note: The Aleutian Islands are an archipelago comprising dozens of islands with 40 active and 17 dormant volcanoes
From EurekAlert!
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-12/miop-ssg122320.php
Thanks to Jimmy Walter for this link
The post Study suggests great earthquakes as cause of Arctic warming appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 30, 2020 at 06:35AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Greta Gets It Right For Once!

Greta Gets It Right For Once!

In her latest interview with the Guardian , Greta finally gets one thing right !
Of course , China have @ @ @ @ @ anything at all .
It is nothing more than an “ aim ” .
But @ @ @ @ @ off that one !
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By Paul Homewood
h/t Robin Guenier
In her latest interview with the Guardian, Greta finally gets one thing right!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/29/we-cannot-make-it-without-science-greta-thunberg-says-climate-experts-are-being-ignored
Of course, China have not actually “pledged” anything at all. It is nothing more than an “aim”. But we’ll let Greta off that one!
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December 30, 2020 at 04:54AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Shaping a Spiral Galaxy

Shaping a Spiral Galaxy

Magnetic fields in NGC 1068 , or M77 , are shown as streamlines over a visible light and X-ray composite @ @ @ @ @ the Hubble Space Telescope , NuSTAR or the Nuclear Spectroscopic Array , and the Sloan @ @ @ @ @ magnetic fields align along the entire length of the massive spiral arms — 24,000 light @ @ @ @ @ ) — implying that the gravitational forces that created the galaxy ’ s shape are @ @ @ @ @ field .
This supports the leading theory of how the spiral arms are forced into @ @ @ @ @ “ density wave theory.
” SOFIA , the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy , studied @ @ @ @ @ ( 89 microns ) to reveal facets of its magnetic fields that previous observations using @ @ @ @ @ not detect .
Learn more : How to Shape a Spiral Galaxy

From NASA
Magnetic fields in NGC 1068, or M77, are shown as streamlines over a visible light and X-ray composite image of the galaxy from the Hubble Space Telescope, NuSTAR or the Nuclear Spectroscopic Array, and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.
The magnetic fields align along the entire length of the massive spiral arms — 24,000 light years across (0.8 kiloparsecs) — implying that the gravitational forces that created the galaxy’s shape are also compressing the its magnetic field.
This supports the leading theory of how the spiral arms are forced into their iconic shape known as “density wave theory.” SOFIA, the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy, studied the galaxy using far-infrared light (89 microns) to reveal facets of its magnetic fields that previous observations using visible and radio telescopes could not detect.
Learn more: How to Shape a Spiral Galaxy
Image Credit: NASA/SOFIA; NASA/JPL-Caltech/Roma Tre Univ.Last Updated: Dec. 28, 2020Editor: Yvette Smith
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--What’s That White Stuff, Mummy?

What’s That White Stuff, Mummy?

David Viner ’ s Thing of the Past strikes again !
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By Paul Homewood
David Viner’s Thing of the Past strikes again!
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December 30, 2020 at 04:42AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--The Chart Chris Jackson Forgot To Show

The Chart Chris Jackson Forgot To Show

Instead of using his bit of string on a board to illustrate the temperature and CO2 record of the Earth @ @ @ @ @ treated his audience in a more grown up fashion , and shown them the actual @ @ @ @ @ done , of course , he would have had a hard job convincing even the @ @ @ @ @ was controlling the climate !
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By Paul Homewood
Instead of using his bit of string on a board to illustrate the temperature and CO2 record of the Earth, Prof Jackson might have treated his audience in a more grown up fashion, and shown them the actual record:
http://www.biocab.org/Geological_Timescale.jpg
If he had done, of course, he would have had a hard job convincing even the impressionable youngsters that carbon dioxide was controlling the climate!
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December 30, 2020 at 04:30AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--USA CITY TO POST CLIMATE WARNING SIGNS ON PETROL PUMPS

Here are the details .
Do they really think this will have any effect on drivers who come to fill @ @ @ @ @ a futile gesture .
I suppose they think it will have a subliminal effect , @ @ @ @ @ The warnings on cigarette packets made more sense in that there was little doubt that @ @ @ @ @ their lungs , but hardly anyone can believe that exhaust fumes can do much harm @ @ @ @ @ diluted in the air .

Here are the details. Do they really think this will have any effect on drivers who come to fill up? It is simply a futile gesture. I suppose they think it will have a subliminal effect, but I doubt it. The warnings on cigarette packets made more sense in that there was little doubt that inhaling smoke caused damage to their lungs, but hardly anyone can believe that exhaust fumes can do much harm as they disperse and get diluted in the air.
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December 30, 2020 at 02:00AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Gates-Funded Plan to Dim The Sun’s Rays is Moving Forward.

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Skip to content Gates-Funded Plan to Dim The Sun’s Rays is Moving Forward. Steve Milloy talks Bill Gates’ Geoengineering Project with Kara McKinney on OANN Like this: Like Loading… Related Post navigation wpDiscuz
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December 30, 2020 at 12:29AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Stargate Atlantis and “The Cause”

Stargate Atlantis and “The Cause”

Many if not most readers will be familiar with the short , rather unscientific phrase , “ the cause ” repeated in multiple Climategate emails .
“ The Cause ” for want of a better definition was to push the theory of potentially catastrophic global warming against any and all academic or political dissension .
Here are some examples .
< 3115 > By the way , when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction ?
?
?
It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They will ( see below ) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic example , referring to the J. Cimate paper ( which should be finally accepted upon submission of the revised final draft ) , so that should help the cause a bit .
Almost exactly a year before the first Climategate email story broke on this website , the science fiction series Stargate Atlantis aired an episode called “ Brain Storm ” , season 5 , episode 16 .
Guest starring in this episode were two well known Climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was even presented as competent .
Harry Anderson plays the part of the overconfident global savior .
But here is the interesting part .
In the introduction to this episode , Tunney ( Harry Anderson ) , has a conversation with his funder about the safety of the project and its goal , being “ The Cause ” , more than a year before the Climategate emails were revealed to the public .
Take a look .
Now with Nye and Tyson on the set , both buddies of recent Inconvenient Truth Academy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curious how this particular phrase got into the script .
What was the connection of Hollywood , Gore , and our lovely Climategate crew ?
I ’ m sure we will never know , but it is curious .
Remember those days of yesteryear were there still a smidgeon of self-awareness left ?

Many if not most readers will be familiar with the short, rather unscientific phrase, “the cause” repeated in multiple Climategate emails. “The Cause” for want of a better definition was to push the theory of potentially catastrophic global warming against any and all academic or political dissension.
Here are some examples.
<3115> By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.
<3940> They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a bit.
<0810> I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s doing, but its not helping the cause
Almost exactly a year before the first Climategate email story broke on this website, the science fiction series Stargate Atlantis aired an episode called “Brain Storm”, season 5, episode 16. Guest starring in this episode were two well known Climate Change activist experts in everything
Neil deGrasse Tyson and Bill Nye.
Bill Nye was even presented as competent.
Harry Anderson plays the part of the overconfident global savior.
But here is the interesting part. In the introduction to this episode, Tunney (Harry Anderson), has a conversation with his funder about the safety of the project and its goal, being “The Cause”, more than a year before the Climategate emails were revealed to the public. Take a look.
Now with Nye and Tyson on the set, both buddies of recent Inconvenient Truth Academy Award winner Al Gore, it is curious how this particular phrase got into the script. What was the connection of Hollywood, Gore, and our lovely Climategate crew?
I’m sure we will never know, but it is curious.
Remember those days of yesteryear were there still a smidgeon of self-awareness left?
I miss those days.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-31--Missouri senator will reject electoral college results on Jan 6

Sen. Josh Hawley , R-Mo.
, announces he will object to Electoral College certification .
“ I Can not Vote to Certify the Electoral College Results on January 6th , ” says Hawley , who has been critical about the 2020 election since the results were first announced .
Hawley said in a statement earlier today ( Wednesday ) that he can not vote to certify the Electoral College results January 6 .
He pointed out that making such objections is nothing new .
“ Following both the 2004 and 2016 elections , Democrats in Congress objected during the certification @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerns about election integrity , ” said Hawley .
“ They were praised by Democratic leadership and the media when they did .
And they were entitled to do so .
But now those of us concerned about the integrity of this election are entitled to do the same.
” The effort in the House is being led by Rep. Mo Brooks , who told Fox News this week at least a dozen others will join him .
On the floor earlier this month Brooks said this : With Hawley joining the small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6 would be dissolved and the House and Senate would then meet separately for two hours to debate a contested state ’ s electoral vote .
Brooks says Republicans are preparing to object to Joe Biden in as many as six states .
So with two hours of debate per state , the American people could be looking at a dozen hours of debate before a vote .
The post Missouri senator will reject electoral college results on Jan 6 appeared first on Ice Age Now @

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., announces he will object to Electoral College certification.
“I Cannot Vote to Certify the Electoral College Results on January 6th,” says Hawley, who has been critical about the 2020 election since the results were first announced.
Hawley said in a statement earlier today (Wednesday) that he cannot vote to certify the Electoral College results January 6.
He pointed out that making such objections is nothing new. “Following both the 2004 and 2016 elections, Democrats in Congress objected during the certification of electoral votes in order to raise concerns about election integrity,” said Hawley. “They were praised by Democratic leadership and the media when they did. And they were entitled to do so. But now those of us concerned about the integrity of this election are entitled to do the same.”
The effort in the House is being led by Rep. Mo Brooks, who told Fox News this week at least a dozen others will join him.
On the floor earlier this month Brooks said this:
“It is my duty as a member of Congress to, on January the 6th, object to and vote to reject the Electoral College submissions of all states whose election systems are so badly flawed as to render their vote submissions unreliable.”
With Hawley joining the small group of House Republicans in objecting, the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6 would be dissolved and the House and Senate would then meet separately for two hours to debate a contested state’s electoral vote.
Brooks says Republicans are preparing to object to Joe Biden in as many as six states.
So with two hours of debate per state, the American people could be looking at a dozen hours of debate before a vote.
Millions of voters concerned about election integrity deserve to be heard. I will object on January 6 on their behalf pic.twitter.com/kTaaPPJGHE — Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) December 30, 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/josh-hawley-to-object-electoral-college-certification-jan-6
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/josh-hawley-force-votes-electoral-college-results/index.html
The post Missouri senator will reject electoral college results on Jan 6 appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 30, 2020 at 05:42PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-30--Guardian: Could the Covid Lockdown have Helped Save Us from Climate Change?

According to The Guardian , the Covid lockdown brought “ heart warming ” images of sheep grazing in a deserted children ’ s playground , and gave us a glimpse of what might be possible under a future Climate lockdown .
Could Covid lockdown have helped save the planet ?
Slowdown of human activity was too short to reverse years of destruction , but we saw a glimpse of post-fossil fuel world hen lockdown began , climate scientists were horrified at the unfolding tragedy , but also intrigued to observe what they called an “ inadvertent experiment ” on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they asked , would the Earth system respond to the steepest slowdown in human activity since the second world war ?
Environmental activists put the question more succinctly : how much would it help to save the planet ?
The respite was too short to reverse decades of destruction , but it did provide a glimpse of what the world might feel like without fossil fuels and with more space for nature .
Wildlife did not have time to reclaim lost territory but it had scope for exploration .
Alongside apocalyptic images of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with heartwarming clips of sheep in a deserted playground in Monmouthshire , Wales , coyotes on the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco , wild boar snuffling through the streets of Barcelona , and deer grazing not far from the White House in Washington DC .
Wildflowers flourished on roadsides because verges were cut less frequently .
But the gains were short-lived .
Once lockdown eased , traffic surged back and so did air pollution .
In a survey of 49 British towns and cities , 80 % had contamination levels that were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic .
Elsewhere , sightings of distant mountain peaks and wild animals are fading in the memory .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to The Guardian, the Covid lockdown brought “heart warming” images of sheep grazing in a deserted children’s playground, and gave us a glimpse of what might be possible under a future Climate lockdown.
Could Covid lockdown have helped save the planet?
Slowdown of human activity was too short to reverse years of destruction, but we saw a glimpse of post-fossil fuel world
Jonathan Watts@jonathanwatts
Tue 29 Dec 2020 18.00 AEDT
hen lockdown began, climate scientists were horrified at the unfolding tragedy, but also intrigued to observe what they called an “inadvertent experiment” on a global scale. To what extent, they asked, would the Earth system respond to the steepest slowdown in human activity since the second world war?
Environmental activists put the question more succinctly: how much would it help to save the planet?
…
The respite was too short to reverse decades of destruction, but it did provide a glimpse of what the world might feel like without fossil fuels and with more space for nature.
Wildlife did not have time to reclaim lost territory but it had scope for exploration. Alongside apocalyptic images of deserted roads, the internet briefly buzzed with heartwarming clips of sheep in a deserted playground in Monmouthshire, Wales, coyotes on the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, wild boar snuffling through the streets of Barcelona, and deer grazing not far from the White House in Washington DC. Wildflowers flourished on roadsides because verges were cut less frequently.
…
But the gains were short-lived. Once lockdown eased, traffic surged back and so did air pollution. In a survey of 49 British towns and cities, 80% had contamination levels that were now the same or worse than before the pandemic. Elsewhere, sightings of distant mountain peaks and wild animals are fading in the memory.
…