iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Andrew Montford: Honesty is needed on the huge costs of attempting “net-zero”

£3 trillion is £100,000 per household – we may have to spend double that .
A switch to a command economy would also mean losing our freedom .
Politicians can be divided into those who like to spend big ( and posture ) , and those who know what a dangerous course that is .
The Prime Minister might well complain about being labelled one of the big spenders ; it is , after all , hardly his fault that his time in office has coincided with a pandemic .
He would surely argue that the bill for keeping the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion – was a case of spending through necessity .
However , the bill that will result from Boris Johnson ’ s plans for another a major cut in greenhouse gas emissions can not be waved away so easily .
Quite what it will cost is unclear , but we can get some sense of the scale of what is planned from recent work on the costs of total decarbonisation of the economy .
When the Government announced its net-zero plan 18 months ago , it was on the back of a recommendation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which said that the cost was modest , amounting to only £50 billion in 2050 .
Unfortunately , they later admitted that they hadn ’ t actually calculated the cost of getting us to net-zero at all .
Some time next year , they be appearing before the Information Tribunal to explain their refusal to release the calculations they used to persuade the Government that decarbonisation could be done on the cheap .
The Treasury and BEIS have bandied around their own estimates of the bill , with figures of £1 or £1.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , like the CCC , they too have refused to reveal their calculations to scrutiny .
Despite the lack of clarity , numbers of this magnitude seem to have gained a certain currency in Whitehall .
A report from the National Audit Office , published this week , speaks of having to spend “ hundreds of billions ” .
Apart from the secrecy over a matter of vital public concern , even a brief consideration of what needs to be done shows that all of the Whitehall estimates are so absurdly low as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of numeracy , or worse , a complete lack of honesty , among senior civil servants .
It is simply impossible that decarbonisation can be achieved for a few hundred billion , or even a trillion pounds .
Take domestic heating , for example .
The cheapest way to achieve decarbonisation will be through use of air-source heat pumps , which will cost over £10,000 each to install .
Putting them into 35 million homes by 2050 will therefore cost at least £350 billion – another pandemic ’ s worth of spending .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extra demand will cost another £200 billion , more than the annual cost of the NHS .
So if we are spending £550 billion installing heat pumps alone , it ’ s fairly obvious that decarbonising the whole economy is going to come with a bill that is at least order of magnitude higher .
And as if to confirm this idea , earlier this week , National Grid published the first serious official attempt to cost the project , putting the figure at around £3 trillion .
It is noteworthy that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain unpublished , but £3 trillion may be the correct order of magnitude .
However , the figure is obviously wildly understated , because of some absurd input assumptions , such as the cost of building offshore windfarms – the core of a decarbonised power system .
The Grid assumes that these will set us back just half what they actually cost according to published financial accounts .
Looking forward , they say the cost will fall still further , while windfarm developers are reporting that there are no cost reductions on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that net-zero is going to be much more expensive than the Grid says .
My own work at GWPF suggests that we are going to be spending £3 trillion on electrification of heating and private cars alone between now and 2050 .
We will probably spend nearly the same amount again on decarbonising electricity generation , and then there is industry and agriculture and freight and air transport and trains and shipping to come .
It ’ s hard to comprehend numbers of such magnitude , but £3 trillion amounts to £100,000 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up spending double that amount .
So you can get a sense of the pain that is coming .
And remember , this is only the capital cost .
Householders will also have to swallow a doubling of the cost of motoring and a tripling of domestic fuel bills .
The price of everything will soar .
The post Andrew Montford : Honesty is needed on the huge costs of attempting “ net-zero ” appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

£3 trillion is £100,000 per household – we may have to spend double that. A switch to a command economy would also mean losing our freedom.
Politicians can be divided into those who like to spend big (and posture), and those who know what a dangerous course that is.
The Prime Minister might well complain about being labelled one of the big spenders; it is, after all, hardly his fault that his time in office has coincided with a pandemic. He would surely argue that the bill for keeping the country on its feet – around £350 billion – was a case of spending through necessity.
However, the bill that will result from Boris Johnson’s plans for another a major cut in greenhouse gas emissions cannot be waved away so easily. Quite what it will cost is unclear, but we can get some sense of the scale of what is planned from recent work on the costs of total decarbonisation of the economy. When the Government announced its net-zero plan 18 months ago, it was on the back of a recommendation from the Committee on Climate Change, which said that the cost was modest, amounting to only £50 billion in 2050. Unfortunately, they later admitted that they hadn’t actually calculated the cost of getting us to net-zero at all. Some time next year, they be appearing before the Information Tribunal to explain their refusal to release the calculations they used to persuade the Government that decarbonisation could be done on the cheap.
The Treasury and BEIS have bandied around their own estimates of the bill, with figures of £1 or £1.5 trillion quoted in the press. However, like the CCC, they too have refused to reveal their calculations to scrutiny. Despite the lack of clarity, numbers of this magnitude seem to have gained a certain currency in Whitehall. A report from the National Audit Office, published this week, speaks of having to spend “hundreds of billions”.
Apart from the secrecy over a matter of vital public concern, even a brief consideration of what needs to be done shows that all of the Whitehall estimates are so absurdly low as to smack of an almost complete lack of numeracy, or worse, a complete lack of honesty, among senior civil servants. It is simply impossible that decarbonisation can be achieved for a few hundred billion, or even a trillion pounds. Take domestic heating, for example. The cheapest way to achieve decarbonisation will be through use of air-source heat pumps, which will cost over £10,000 each to install. Putting them into 35 million homes by 2050 will therefore cost at least £350 billion – another pandemic’s worth of spending. Upgrading the electricity distribution network to deliver the extra demand will cost another £200 billion, more than the annual cost of the NHS.
So if we are spending £550 billion installing heat pumps alone, it’s fairly obvious that decarbonising the whole economy is going to come with a bill that is at least order of magnitude higher. And as if to confirm this idea, earlier this week, National Grid published the first serious official attempt to cost the project, putting the figure at around £3 trillion.
It is noteworthy that the underlying calculations for this estimate also remain unpublished, but £3 trillion may be the correct order of magnitude. However, the figure is obviously wildly understated, because of some absurd input assumptions, such as the cost of building offshore windfarms – the core of a decarbonised power system. The Grid assumes that these will set us back just half what they actually cost according to published financial accounts. Looking forward, they say the cost will fall still further, while windfarm developers are reporting that there are no cost reductions on the horizon.
It seems clear then, that net-zero is going to be much more expensive than the Grid says. My own work at GWPF suggests that we are going to be spending £3 trillion on electrification of heating and private cars alone between now and 2050. We will probably spend nearly the same amount again on decarbonising electricity generation, and then there is industry and agriculture and freight and air transport and trains and shipping to come.
It’s hard to comprehend numbers of such magnitude, but £3 trillion amounts to £100,000 per household, and we could easily end up spending double that amount. So you can get a sense of the pain that is coming. And remember, this is only the capital cost. Householders will also have to swallow a doubling of the cost of motoring and a tripling of domestic fuel bills. The price of everything will soar.
The post Andrew Montford: Honesty is needed on the huge costs of attempting “net-zero” appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
https://ift.tt/39KfC6a
December 6, 2020 at 01:09AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Claim: The Great Barrier Reef is “Critical” because of Climate Change

Just how long do we have to wait until the Great Barrier Reef is dead ?
The Reef allegedly went critical in the great El-Nino of 1998 .
Ever since , reef scientists have been bombarding us with dire predictions and demanding billions of dollars and urgent action to “ save ” it .
International Union for Conservation of Nature report says more than a third of world ’ s heritage sites are of ‘ significant concern ’ or ‘ critical ’ .
The health of Australia ’ s Great Barrier Reef , the world ’ s most extensive coral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state and deteriorating as climate change warms the waters around it , an international conservation group said , warning that more than a third of the world ’ s heritage sites are similarly threatened .
The World Heritage-listed site off Australia ’ s northeastern coast has lost more than half its coral in the past three decades .
Coral-bleaching in 2016 , 2017 and 2020 has further damaged its health and affected its animal , bird and marine population , the International Union for Conservation of Nature said in a report .
Bleaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upon which the coral feeds , causing it to turn white .
My question – what evidence is there that bleaching is bad for coral reefs ?
Perhaps coral bleaching is like trees dropping their leaves – a completely normal part of the natural cycle .
Great Barrier Reef death in five years is “ laughable ” CLAIMS by a James Cook University professor that the Great Barrier Reef will be  “ terminal ” in five years have been rubbished by one of his own colleagues .
In a scientific paper released @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jon Brodie and Professor Richard Pearson warned the natural wonder would be in a terminal condition within five years without a $ 10 billion commitment during the federal election campaign to improve water quality .
But JCU marine geophysicist Professor Peter Ridd said his colleagues ’ claims were “ laughable ” .
“ I think the threats to the Barrier Reef are greatly exaggerated and mostly based upon science that is very poorly quality assured , ’ ’ he said .
Latest findings by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority show 93 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ varying levels of coral bleaching which was worse in remote parts off Cape York .
Prof Ridd said bleaching was an entirely natural event .
“ It has always occurred over the millennia , and this is nothing special , ’ ’ he said .
“ It ’ s no different to say that on the land , when in extremely dry conditions for example , eucalypt trees lose their leaves Time has vindicate Peter Ridd ’ s 2016 criticism of alarmist claims the reef would be terminal in 5 years .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reef is still alive enough to be worth them continuing to receive millions of dollars of research funding .

Photo of a suspiciously healthy looking “dead” coral reef
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Just how long do we have to wait until the Great Barrier Reef is dead? The Reef allegedly went critical in the great El-Nino of 1998. Ever since, reef scientists have been bombarding us with dire predictions and demanding billions of dollars and urgent action to “save” it.
Australia’s Great Barrier Reef ‘critical’ due to climate change International Union for Conservation of Nature report says more than a third of world’s heritage sites are of ‘significant concern’ or ‘critical’. 4 Dec 2020 The health of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the world’s most extensive coral reef ecosystem, is in a critical state and deteriorating as climate change warms the waters around it, an international conservation group said, warning that more than a third of the world’s heritage sites are similarly threatened. The World Heritage-listed site off Australia’s northeastern coast has lost more than half its coral in the past three decades. Coral-bleaching in 2016, 2017 and 2020 has further damaged its health and affected its animal, bird and marine population, the International Union for Conservation of Nature said in a report. Bleaching occurs when hotter water destroys the algae upon which the coral feeds, causing it to turn white. … Read more: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/4/australias-great-barrier-reef-critical-due-to-climate-change
My question – what evidence is there that bleaching is bad for coral reefs? Perhaps coral bleaching is like trees dropping their leaves – a completely normal part of the natural cycle.
Great Barrier Reef death in five years is “laughable” Daniel Bateman, The Cairns PostMay 21, 2016 5:00am CLAIMS by a James Cook University professor that the Great Barrier Reef will be “terminal” in five years have been rubbished by one of his own colleagues. In a scientific paper released this week, JCU’s Dr Jon Brodie and Professor Richard Pearson warned the natural wonder would be in a terminal condition within five years without a $10 billion commitment during the federal election campaign to improve water quality. … But JCU marine geophysicist Professor Peter Ridd said his colleagues’ claims were “laughable”. “I think the threats to the Barrier Reef are greatly exaggerated and mostly based upon science that is very poorly quality assured,’’ he said. Latest findings by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority show 93 per cent of the natural wonder has varying levels of coral bleaching which was worse in remote parts off Cape York. Prof Ridd said bleaching was an entirely natural event. “It has always occurred over the millennia, and this is nothing special,’’ he said. “It’s no different to say that on the land, when in extremely dry conditions for example, eucalypt trees lose their leaves … Read more: https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/great-barrier-reef-death-in-five-years-is-laughable/news-story/7f0de36647f172815f55ebfd3a2e9df1
Time has vindicate Peter Ridd’s 2016 criticism of alarmist claims the reef would be terminal in 5 years. Even the most pessimistic reef scientists agree the reef is still alive enough to be worth them continuing to receive millions of dollars of research funding.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--War of The Walds: Germany’s Forests Overrun With Wind Turbines in Dystopian ‘Green’ Nightmare

Germany ’ s landscape has been carpeted with more than 30,000 gigantic industrial wind turbines : the result is a dystopian nightmare , reminiscent of HG Wells ’ The War of the Worlds .
Except that the battle is being waged in towns and villages and most visibly in the German walds – with whole forests being clear-felled to make way for these things , rendering the landscape a hideous visual cacophony .
The little more on what your wind powered future might look like , here ’ s Pierre Gosselin .
Germany ’ s vision of a clean , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be discreetly nestled in an idyllic landscape , is in reality morphing into an environmental dystopia of catastrophic proportions .
German wind energy protest group Vernunftkraft.de posted a Youtube video showing how out of control wind energy has gotten in some regions of Germany .
The above video shows , for example the Uckermark region , around Prenzlau .
The Youtube text under the video : “ Around Prenzlau alone ( up to 15 km ) there are about 300 wind turbines .
In the entire Uckermark region there are almost 800 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the trend is rising.
” No avian wildlife can survive this .
Rural citizens get steamrolled by Big Wind What ’ s left ?
An entire region whose landscape is totally blighted by noisy industrial towers and is inhospitable to most life .
Gone are the tranquility and idyllic beauty the area once enjoyed .
The problem is that this region is poor , rural and so stands no chance against big wind project developers and the crony pols behind them , who just steamroll over any reservations or resistance local that residents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ old communists , this is another example of what happens when planning and decision-making are left to incompetent and corrupt central-planning policymakers teamed up with greedy crony capitalists out to make a quick buck .
A few win big , while the masses lose everything .
In 30 years much of it will remain in ruins , a monument to one of the greatest industrial scams of all time .
No Tricks Zone

Germany’s landscape has been carpeted with more than 30,000 gigantic industrial wind turbines: the result is a dystopian nightmare, reminiscent of HG Wells’ The War of the Worlds. Except that the battle is being waged in towns and villages and most visibly in the German walds – with whole forests being clear-felled to make way for these things, rendering the landscape a hideous visual cacophony.
The little more on what your wind powered future might look like, here’s Pierre Gosselin.
Germany’s Enviro-Dystopia: Wind Parks Devastating Rural Regions At Catastrophic Proportions
No Tricks Zone
Pierre Gosselin
1 December 2020
Germany’s vision of a clean, environmentally friendly energy supply system, all to be discreetly nestled in an idyllic landscape, is in reality morphing into an environmental dystopia of catastrophic proportions.
German wind energy protest group Vernunftkraft.de posted a Youtube video showing how out of control wind energy has gotten in some regions of Germany.
The above video shows, for example the Uckermark region, around Prenzlau.
The Youtube text under the video: “Around Prenzlau alone (up to 15 km) there are about 300 wind turbines. In the entire Uckermark region there are almost 800 wind turbines (2020), and the trend is rising.”
No avian wildlife can survive this.
Rural citizens get steamrolled by Big Wind
What’s left? An entire region whose landscape is totally blighted by noisy industrial towers and is inhospitable to most life. Gone are the tranquility and idyllic beauty the area once enjoyed. The problem is that this region is poor, rural and so stands no chance against big wind project developers and the crony pols behind them, who just steamroll over any reservations or resistance local that residents may try to muster.
Like the old communists, this is another example of what happens when planning and decision-making are left to incompetent and corrupt central-planning policymakers teamed up with greedy crony capitalists out to make a quick buck. A few win big, while the masses lose everything.
In 30 years much of it will remain in ruins, a monument to one of the greatest industrial scams of all time.
No Tricks Zone


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Biden’s Coming China Headache: Climate Change And “Developing Countries”

A Biden presidency , which now seems most likely , will have plenty on its foreign policy plate , ranging from relations with Russia , China and Europe to the Iran question in the Middle East .
But it is likely that global climate change policy , especially in relation to China ’ s position in it , will be among the most contentious challenges it will face in international diplomacy .
If we are slated for a Biden presidency , we will get the most climate change-conscious administrations in US history .
The climate agenda has been elevated to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , straddling the key portfolios of national security , foreign policy , and economy and finance .
From January 20th 2021 , “ fighting global warming ” will be elevated to a primary concern of the vast US government bureaucracies ranging from the EPA and the Federal Reserve to the Pentagon and the State Department .
A Biden administration would “ use every tool of American foreign policy to push the rest of the world to raise their ambitions alongside with the US ” and it would “ pursue strong measures ” to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate commitments .
No doubt a future Biden presidency would seek to emulate the lauded bargain between Obama and China ’ s President Xi that set the foundations of the non-binding Paris Agreement .
The 2015 agreement was hailed as ex-President Obama ’ s “ breakthrough ” understanding with China that the latter too would join in the global effort to cut emissions .
In a move welcomed by European leaders , Biden has vowed that the US would re-join the Paris climate accord on his first day in the White House in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Trump ’ s formal withdrawal notice from the Paris Agreement issued in November 2019 .
To steer this vision — an example of an enlightened , “ lead from behind ” multilateral approach in concert with Europe — Biden has appointed the aristocratic Europhile John Kerry to a Cabinet-level role as “ climate tsar ” .
Kerry oversaw the negotiations that led to the Paris Agreement and signed the accord on the behalf of the US in 2016 as ex-President Obama ’ s Secretary of State ( 2013 – 2017 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” , Kerry does not require Senate confirmation .
He has vowed that under his watch “ America will soon have a government that treats the climate crisis as the urgent national security threat it is ” .
To the proponents of “ climate crisis ” , a Biden-Xi collaboration is an opportunity to set the terms for meaningful global cooperation on climate change policies .
For the more hard headed diplomats — not least China ’ s ‘ wolf warriors ’ – more at home reading Machiavelli ’ s The Prince than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Land , the hopes of a US-China ‘ grand bargain ’ will seem naïve .
The celebrated Paris Agreement was only so much of smoke and mirrors as far as China ’ s practitioners of strategic statecraft were concerned .
For Obama ’ s end of the bargain , his administration unleashed such punitive measures on US ’ s own economic interests as the Clean Power Plan and the Waters Of The US Act by Executive Orders ( since the Paris Agreement was conveniently not a “ treaty ” requiring an impossible Senate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end , China promised to peak its emissions by 2030 at a level and a rate of subsequent decline that were not specified .
Nor were Chinese planners unaware that research showed that China ’ s commitment to peak by 2030 was actually less ambitious than continuing business as usual , that the country ’ s emissions would have peaked by then anyway whatever it did ( or not ) .
Meanwhile , signing the agreement did not stop China from approving 23 gigawatts of new coal-power projects the first half of 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ combined .
Note that China had commissioned more coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined in those two years .
From the earliest UN negotiations starting in 1994 under the Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) , China firmly and consistently played the ‘ Third World ’ position .
Developing countries carried “ common but differentiated responsibilities ” .
This meant that while developed countries ( primarily the West , but also including Japan ) adopted binding commitments to reduce carbon emissions by specified amounts , the developing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ binding policy commitments but were expected to receive considerable sums in “ climate finance ” to assist mitigating and adapting to climate change .
The BASIC group ( Brazil , South Africa , India and China – the world ’ s four largest ‘ developing countries ’ ) formed a bloc in 2009 to act jointly at the Copenhagen climate summit , including a possible united walk-out if their “ common minimum position ” was not met by the developed nations .
Effectively , the Kyoto Protocol , brought into force in 2005 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income distribution , as senior UN officials openly admitted .
To be sure , the ‘ third world ’ position is not necessarily a cynical one .
The rationale behind the ‘ developing country ’ position is based on the reasonable grounds of equity and historical responsibility .
Since the major portion of the stock of man-made greenhouse gases ( GHGs ) in the earth ’ s atmosphere is accounted for by the industrialised West , the developed countries should launch serious efforts to reduce their own emissions before calling upon the developing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump came into office in 2016 , China was already the world ’ s largest emitter of GHGs by far .
By then it was also long evident that it was a stretch to call China a ‘ developing ’ country in any meaningful sense .
President Trump boiled over last year on China ‘ s “ developing country ” status : among his many tweets , “ The WTO is BROKEN when the world ’ s RICHEST countries claim to be developing countries to avoid WTO rules and get special treatment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s emergence as an economic and military power challenging US dominance in Asia and beyond is a fact not denied even by the left wing of the US Democratic party .
China is one of the prime movers of global commodity and financial markets .
Its investments in the much hyped Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) , often grossly inflated in the business press , have nevertheless grown into an extensive web of infrastructure construction and investments in over a hundred countries .
As a source of loans for deficit-ridden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Africa and Europe , China has emerged as the major competitor to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund , the Washington-based pillars of the post-WWII economic international system .
Indeed , David Malpass , whose appointment in 2019 as World Bank chief was supported by President Trump , was an outspoken critic of the World Bank ’ s loans to China ( and India ) .
Malpass quite rightly argued that these countries had become rich enough to tap global capital markets on reasonable terms .
If China is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little responsibility in the West-led global “ fight against climate change ” , then just what can a Biden administration extract from the Chinese government in decarbonization commitments ?
China ’ s state planners are likely to have a keener appreciation for the laws of physics and economics in their assessments of decarbonization than their counterparts in the West who are busy pursuing a quixotic Green Industrial Revolution .
They will insist on delivering to their people an Industrial Revolution first , of the sort enjoyed by the West since its birth over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to anything that might come in the way .
For President-for-life Mr. Xi , who does not have elections to contend with , it is a one-shot gamble on regime stability .
It would be the height of folly to imagine that President Xi would turn to Rudyard Kipling ’ s bravado “ If you can make one heap of all your winnings… And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss ” in some kind of moral turn towards international cooperation with the climate crusaders in a Biden administration .
Regime survival , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predicated on meeting the material aspirations of ordinary citizens , the only source of legitimacy afforded to unelected governments throughout history .
China ’ s government fended off — with a mixture of confrontation and unstable interim agreements — President Trump ’ s explosive tariff diplomacy against China ’ s intellectual property theft , gaming of the WTO system and other US complaints .
It will do so no less with the threats of border taxes on its carbon-intensive exports if that were to be John Kerry ’ s and his European allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ To the Trump-voting “ deplorables ” , John Kerry is “ that guy who ’ s hanging out in Europe enjoying it , talking about the climate and flying around on his private jet ” .
But it will be an aged President Biden who will be landed with a policy headache of monumental proportions if he is to handle climate change and China in no uncertain manner .

Reposted from Forbes
By Tilak Doshi,
A Biden presidency, which now seems most likely, will have plenty on its foreign policy plate, ranging from relations with Russia, China and Europe to the Iran question in the Middle East. But it is likely that global climate change policy, especially in relation to China’s position in it, will be among the most contentious challenges it will face in international diplomacy.
If we are slated for a Biden presidency, we will get the most climate change-conscious administrations in US history. The climate agenda has been elevated to a “whole of government” approach, straddling the key portfolios of national security, foreign policy, and economy and finance. From January 20th 2021, “fighting global warming” will be elevated to a primary concern of the vast US government bureaucracies ranging from the EPA and the Federal Reserve to the Pentagon and the State Department. A Biden administration would “use every tool of American foreign policy to push the rest of the world to raise their ambitions alongside with the US” and it would “pursue strong measures” to stop other countries from cheating on their climate commitments.
The “Grand Bargain” of Paris
No doubt a future Biden presidency would seek to emulate the lauded bargain between Obama and China’s President Xi that set the foundations of the non-binding Paris Agreement. The 2015 agreement was hailed as ex-President Obama’s “breakthrough” understanding with China that the latter too would join in the global effort to cut emissions. In a move welcomed by European leaders, Biden has vowed that the US would re-join the Paris climate accord on his first day in the White House in January. It will seek to reverse President Trump’s formal withdrawal notice from the Paris Agreement issued in November 2019.
To steer this vision — an example of an enlightened , “lead from behind” multilateral approach in concert with Europe — Biden has appointed the aristocratic Europhile John Kerry to a Cabinet-level role as “climate tsar”. Kerry oversaw the negotiations that led to the Paris Agreement and signed the accord on the behalf of the US in 2016 as ex-President Obama’s Secretary of State (2013 – 2017). As “special presidential envoy for climate”, Kerry does not require Senate confirmation. He has vowed that under his watch “America will soon have a government that treats the climate crisis as the urgent national security threat it is”.
To the proponents of “climate crisis”, a Biden-Xi collaboration is an opportunity to set the terms for meaningful global cooperation on climate change policies. For the more hard headed diplomats — not least China’s ‘wolf warriors’ – more at home reading Machiavelli’s The Prince than Obama’s latest bestseller A Promised Land, the hopes of a US-China ‘grand bargain’ will seem naïve.
The celebrated Paris Agreement was only so much of smoke and mirrors as far as China’s practitioners of strategic statecraft were concerned. For Obama’s end of the bargain, his administration unleashed such punitive measures on US’s own economic interests as the Clean Power Plan and the Waters Of The US Act by Executive Orders (since the Paris Agreement was conveniently not a “treaty” requiring an impossible Senate approval). At Xi’s end, China promised to peak its emissions by 2030 at a level and a rate of subsequent decline that were not specified.
Nor were Chinese planners unaware that research showed that China’s commitment to peak by 2030 was actually less ambitious than continuing business as usual, that the country’s emissions would have peaked by then anyway whatever it did (or not). Meanwhile, signing the agreement did not stop China from approving 23 gigawatts of new coal-power projects the first half of 2020, more than the previous two years combined. Note that China had commissioned more coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined in those two years.
The Developing Country Position
From the earliest UN negotiations starting in 1994 under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), China firmly and consistently played the ‘Third World’ position. Developing countries carried “common but differentiated responsibilities”. This meant that while developed countries (primarily the West, but also including Japan) adopted binding commitments to reduce carbon emissions by specified amounts, the developing countries not only did not have any binding policy commitments but were expected to receive considerable sums in “climate finance” to assist mitigating and adapting to climate change.
The BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China – the world’s four largest ‘developing countries’) formed a bloc in 2009 to act jointly at the Copenhagen climate summit, including a possible united walk-out if their “common minimum position” was not met by the developed nations. Effectively, the Kyoto Protocol, brought into force in 2005, became an exercise in massive international income distribution, as senior UN officials openly admitted.
To be sure, the ‘third world’ position is not necessarily a cynical one. The rationale behind the ‘developing country’ position is based on the reasonable grounds of equity and historical responsibility. Since the major portion of the stock of man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth’s atmosphere is accounted for by the industrialised West, the developed countries should launch serious efforts to reduce their own emissions before calling upon the developing countries to contribute.
By the time Trump came into office in 2016, China was already the world’s largest emitter of GHGs by far. By then it was also long evident that it was a stretch to call China a ‘developing’ country in any meaningful sense. President Trump boiled over last year on China‘s “developing country” status: among his many tweets, “The WTO is BROKEN when the world’s RICHEST countries claim to be developing countries to avoid WTO rules and get special treatment. NO more!!!”
China’s emergence as an economic and military power challenging US dominance in Asia and beyond is a fact not denied even by the left wing of the US Democratic party. China is one of the prime movers of global commodity and financial markets. Its investments in the much hyped Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), often grossly inflated in the business press, have nevertheless grown into an extensive web of infrastructure construction and investments in over a hundred countries.
As a source of loans for deficit-ridden governments in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe, China has emerged as the major competitor to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based pillars of the post-WWII economic international system. Indeed, David Malpass, whose appointment in 2019 as World Bank chief was supported by President Trump, was an outspoken critic of the World Bank’s loans to China (and India). Malpass quite rightly argued that these countries had become rich enough to tap global capital markets on reasonable terms.
China’s Red Line
If China is no more a ‘developing country’ with little responsibility in the West-led global “fight against climate change”, then just what can a Biden administration extract from the Chinese government in decarbonization commitments? China’s state planners are likely to have a keener appreciation for the laws of physics and economics in their assessments of decarbonization than their counterparts in the West who are busy pursuing a quixotic Green Industrial Revolution. They will insist on delivering to their people an Industrial Revolution first, of the sort enjoyed by the West since its birth over two centuries ago, before signing up to anything that might come in the way.
For President-for-life Mr. Xi, who does not have elections to contend with, it is a one-shot gamble on regime stability. It would be the height of folly to imagine that President Xi would turn to Rudyard Kipling’s bravado “If you can make one heap of all your winnings… And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss” in some kind of moral turn towards international cooperation with the climate crusaders in a Biden administration.
Regime survival, China’s red line, is predicated on meeting the material aspirations of ordinary citizens, the only source of legitimacy afforded to unelected governments throughout history. China’s government fended off — with a mixture of confrontation and unstable interim agreements — President Trump’s explosive tariff diplomacy against China’s intellectual property theft, gaming of the WTO system and other US complaints. It will do so no less with the threats of border taxes on its carbon-intensive exports if that were to be John Kerry’s and his European allies’ stick in climate policy negotiations.
To the Trump-voting “deplorables”, John Kerry is “that guy who’s hanging out in Europe enjoying it, talking about the climate and flying around on his private jet”. But it will be an aged President Biden who will be landed with a policy headache of monumental proportions if he is to handle climate change and China in no uncertain manner.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Who Needs Electricity On A Cloudy Day?

Who Needs Electricity On A Cloudy Day?

While wind power has virtually disappeared off the grid today , it has also been rather cloudy as well .
@ @ @ @ @ power has produced even less than the pitiful amount it usually does in winter : @ @ @ @ @ average rate is 318MW , which means UK solar farms have been running at just @ @ @ @ @ during the day .
Of course , when they do produce more power in summer @ @ @ @ @ need it anyway .
So it ’ s all rather a waste of money , @ @ @ @ @ via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=eds/main
While wind power has virtually disappeared off the grid today, it has also been rather cloudy as well. As a result, solar power has produced even less than the pitiful amount it usually does in winter:
https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/#
At 7630 MWh, the average rate is 318MW, which means UK solar farms have been running at just 2.5% of their capacity during the day.
Of course, when they do produce more power in summer, we don’t need it anyway. So it’s all rather a waste of money, isn’t it?
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December 6, 2020 at 04:06PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Met Office: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

It ’ s nearly Christmas so maybe time to get the old chestnuts out , and this one is now 20 years old .
Let ’ s see how it fares in the next 20 .
– – – By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days , new Met Office data suggests .
It is one of a series of projections about how UK ’ s climate could change , shared with BBC Panorama .
It suggests by the 2040s most of southern England could no longer see sub-zero days .
By the 2060s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still likely to experience such cold days .
The projections are based on global emissions accelerating .
It could mean the end of sledging , snowmen and snowball fights , says Dr Lizzie Kendon , a senior Met Office scientist who worked on the climate projections .
“ We ’ re saying by the end of the century much of the lying snow will have disappeared entirely except over the highest ground , ” she told Panorama .
If the world reduces emissions significantly the changes will be less dramatic , the Met @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the UK over the past three decades was -4.3 Celsius .
If emissions continue to accelerate , leading to a global temperature rise of 4C , then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter .
Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C , the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius .
The Met Office says these temperatures are subject to variation and some years may see days colder than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the UK ’ s climate might change .
“ But within that , we get this shift towards more extreme events , so more frequent and intense extremes , so heavier rainfall when it occurs.
” The Met Office says we are already seeing dramatic changes in the UK climate .

It’s nearly Christmas so maybe time to get the old chestnuts out, and this one is now 20 years old. Let’s see how it fares in the next 20.
– – –
By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.
It is one of a series of projections about how UK’s climate could change, shared with BBC Panorama.
It suggests by the 2040s most of southern England could no longer see sub-zero days. By the 2060s only high ground and northern Scotland are still likely to experience such cold days.
The projections are based on global emissions accelerating.
It could mean the end of sledging, snowmen and snowball fights, says Dr Lizzie Kendon, a senior Met Office scientist who worked on the climate projections.
“We’re saying by the end of the century much of the lying snow will have disappeared entirely except over the highest ground,” she told Panorama.
If the world reduces emissions significantly the changes will be less dramatic, the Met Office says.
The average coldest day in the UK over the past three decades was -4.3 Celsius.
If emissions continue to accelerate, leading to a global temperature rise of 4C, then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter.
Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C, the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius.
The Met Office says these temperatures are subject to variation and some years may see days colder than the average. Its projections explore how the UK’s climate might change.
“The overarching picture is warmer, wetter winters; hotter, drier summers,” Dr Kendon says.
“But within that, we get this shift towards more extreme events, so more frequent and intense extremes, so heavier rainfall when it occurs.”
The Met Office says we are already seeing dramatic changes in the UK climate.
Continued here.
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December 6, 2020 at 03:42PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Major winter storm battering parts of Italy, Austria and Slovenia described as ‘beyond exceptional’

Talking about 10 feet of snow in 48 hrs .
“ A*particularly dangerous situation* is expected to develop across the Alps on Sunday , December 6th .
An extreme amount of rain and snow is expected , with local rainfall sums reaching 500+ mm .
More than 300 cm ( more than 10 ft ) of fresh snow seems increasingly likely above 1800 m elevation over these areas !
The major winter storm battering NE Italy , parts of Southern Austria and NW Slovenia is described as ‘ beyond exceptional ’ by http : //www.severe-weather.eu The levels of snowfall are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level towns and they are talking about 10 feet of snow in 48 hrs above 1800m ( which in that part of the world is well up onto the mountains ) .
A combination of excessive rainfall , snow melting , and snowfall at higher altitudes could lead to damaging flooding and avalanches in the region !
Thanks to Rhys Jaggar for these links “ Nothing to do with ‘ global warming ’ , ” says Rhys .
“ It is just a classic case of cold arctic air passing southward over Western @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Portugal , a split low pressure zone in that area causing the warm Mediterranean to add a lot of moisture to the storms and then that air doubling back up northwards to hit the Eastern Alps with ferocity.
” The post Major winter storm battering parts of Italy , Austria and Slovenia described as ‘ beyond exceptional ’ appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Talking about 10 feet of snow in 48 hrs. “A*particularly dangerous situation* is expected to develop across the Alps on Sunday, December 6th.
An extreme amount of rain and snow is expected, with local rainfall sums reaching 500+ mm.
More than 300 cm (more than 10 ft) of fresh snow seems increasingly likely above 1800 m elevation over these areas!
The major winter storm battering NE Italy, parts of Southern Austria and NW Slovenia is described as ‘beyond exceptional’ by http://www.severe-weather.eu
See: https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/winter-snowstorm-forecast-alps-europe-mk/
The levels of snowfall are certainly very high even in relatively low level towns and they are talking about 10 feet of snow in 48 hrs above 1800m (which in that part of the world is well up onto the mountains).
A combination of excessive rainfall, snow melting, and snowfall at higher altitudes could lead to damaging flooding and avalanches in the region!
Thanks to Rhys Jaggar for these links
“Nothing to do with ‘global warming’,” says Rhys. “It is just a classic case of cold arctic air passing southward over Western Europe from the UK to Spain and Portugal, a split low pressure zone in that area causing the warm Mediterranean to add a lot of moisture to the storms and then that air doubling back up northwards to hit the Eastern Alps with ferocity.”
The post Major winter storm battering parts of Italy, Austria and Slovenia described as ‘beyond exceptional’ appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 6, 2020 at 03:33PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Russian teen motorist dies in his car after a week spent stranded at MINUS 50 degrees

The teen froze to death in his car in the notoriously cold Yakutia region .
5 Dec 2020 – Following @ @ @ @ @ 18-year-old was found dead .
Incredibly , his friend and companion survived .
The temperature @ @ @ @ @ is around -50°C ( -58°F ) , and the car ’ s radiator was broken @ @ @ @ @ driving from Yakutsk to Magadan on November 28 and were not found until December 5 @ @ @ @ @ these cities is the Kolyma Highway , most commonly known as the Road of Bones @ @ @ @ @ using forced Gulag labor , and construction caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of @ @ @ @ @ sources .
The two 18-year-olds turned away from the main route and got lost .
@ @ @ @ @ now-abandoned highway .
The surviving man is said to be in serious condition .
Thanks @ @ @ @ @ link The post Russian teen motorist dies in his car after a week spent stranded @ @ @ @ @ first on Ice Age Now .

The teen froze to death in his car in the notoriously cold Yakutia region.
5 Dec 2020 – Following a week-long search, the 18-year-old was found dead. Incredibly, his friend and companion survived. The temperature in this area at night is around -50°C (-58°F), and the car’s radiator was broken.
The two teenagers started driving from Yakutsk to Magadan on November 28 and were not found until December 5. The only road between these cities is the Kolyma Highway, most commonly known as the Road of Bones. The route was built using forced Gulag labor, and construction caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of prisoners, according to different sources.
The two 18-year-olds turned away from the main route and got lost. They were located on a now-abandoned highway.
The surviving man is said to be in serious condition.
https://www.rt.com/russia/508786-teen-motorist-frozen-death/
Thanks to Phil Salmon for this link
The post Russian teen motorist dies in his car after a week spent stranded at MINUS 50 degrees appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 6, 2020 at 03:25PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--EU opens door to natural gas and nuclear energy to coax East European sceptics

The European Union is offering assurances on funding for poorer members and countries ’ ability to choose their own energy mix , as it strives for a deal next week on a tougher target to cut greenhouse gas emissions , according to EU documents and sources .
To get on track for its plan to have “ net zero ” emissions by 2050 , the EU ’ s executive Commission says the bloc must cut its net emissions at least 55 % by 2030 , from 1990 levels .
The EU ’ s current 2030 target is for a 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EU countries aim to approve the new target – by unanimity – at a summit on Thursday and Friday next week ( 10-11 December ) .
The challenge is to draft a deal that all countries will support – including states concerned by the economic transformation required , such as Poland and Bulgaria , which want more analysis and conditions attached to the goal .
Further analysis into the impact of tougher climate goals on EU member states is needed before Poland can sign up to the European Commission ’ s proposed 55 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a senior Polish minister has said .
The latest draft conclusions for the summit , dated Dec. 1 and seen by Reuters , would see countries endorse the “ at least 55 ” target and ask the Commission to make cash available to help poorer states invest in clean energy – a request made by countries including Poland .
It also said countries can “ choose the most appropriate technologies ” to cut emissions – wording aimed at states including Bulgaria , Czechia , Romania , Slovakia , and Poland which have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use nuclear power or natural gas to curb emissions .
The post EU opens door to natural gas and nuclear energy to coax East European sceptics appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

The European Union is offering assurances on funding for poorer members and countries’ ability to choose their own energy mix, as it strives for a deal next week on a tougher target to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to EU documents and sources.
To get on track for its plan to have “net zero” emissions by 2050, the EU’s executive Commission says the bloc must cut its net emissions at least 55% by 2030, from 1990 levels.
The EU’s current 2030 target is for a 40% cut.
Leaders from the 27 EU countries aim to approve the new target – by unanimity – at a summit on Thursday and Friday next week (10-11 December).
The challenge is to draft a deal that all countries will support – including states concerned by the economic transformation required, such as Poland and Bulgaria, which want more analysis and conditions attached to the goal.
Further analysis into the impact of tougher climate goals on EU member states is needed before Poland can sign up to the European Commission’s proposed 55% greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030, a senior Polish minister has said.
The latest draft conclusions for the summit, dated Dec. 1 and seen by Reuters, would see countries endorse the “at least 55” target and ask the Commission to make cash available to help poorer states invest in clean energy – a request made by countries including Poland.
It also said countries can “choose the most appropriate technologies” to cut emissions – wording aimed at states including Bulgaria, Czechia, Romania, Slovakia, and Poland which have sought assurances that they will be able to use nuclear power or natural gas to curb emissions.
The post EU opens door to natural gas and nuclear energy to coax East European sceptics appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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December 6, 2020 at 12:17PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Using Milankovitch Cycles to create high-resolution astrochronologies

To quote ( and H/T ) Leif Svalgaard : This year marks the 100th anniversary of Milutin Milankovitch ’ s first paper about Earth ’ s climate .
Milankovitch argued that the amount of solar radiation Earth receives , and hence its climate , varies cyclically as its orbit changes due to gravitational tugs from the other planets .
His climate theory fell into disrepute during the 1950 ’ s but was rehabilitated in the 1970 ’ s .
Today , many people are aware that cyclic changes in Earth ’ s orbit , now known as Milankovitch Cycles , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glacial episodes during the last 2.7 million years .
Less well known , however , is the control those same cycles have exerted to form rhythmically oscillating sedimentary sequences throughout Earth history , thanks to the changes in depositional conditions they induce .
Stratigraphers “ tune ” the chronology of a rhythmic rock sequence to Milankovitch Cycle beats and then anchor those beats to the geologic time scale using radiometric and paleomagnetic dates to produce an astrochronology .
Such astrochronologies , because of their unusually high temporal resolution , provide profound insights into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the Earth-Moon system .
Milankovitch orbital cycles have four primary periods .
Earth ’ s rotation axis precesses on an approximately 20 thousand year cycle and changes its tilt ( called obliquity ) on an approximately 40 thousand year cycle .
Changing gravitational tugs from Jupiter and the inner planets cause our orbit ’ s eccentricity ( the elliptical nature of our orbit ) to oscillate in two modes , one approximately 100 thousand years and the other a steady 405 thousand years .
The remarkable stability of the 405 thousand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jupiter and Venus , makes it the Milankovitch Cycle of choice to construct astrochronologies .
The stratigraphy of the eastern USA ’ s Newark Basin allowed scientists to construct one important early example .
This Triassic rift basin hosts rhythmically alternating lake and fluvial sediments that reflect lake expansion and shrinkage as the climate changed .
Scientists tuned the Newark Basin astrochronology to the 405 thousand year Milankovitch Cycle and then tied it to the geologic time scale using magnetic polarity reversals and high-resolution radiometric dates from basalt interbedded with the uppermost sediment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high temporal resolution appeared to represent a big leap forward , some scientists worried about missing cycles due to unrecognized sedimentary hiatuses ; they didn ’ t trust the astrochronology because it lacked a radiometric date to anchor the sequence ’ s base .
Clearly , a test of the Newark astrochronology ’ s accuracy was needed .
The scientists had to find a comparably aged section that could be tied to radiometric dates at its top and bottom .
In 2013 , they found the ideal candidate : a 500-meter-long core drilled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Petrified Forest National Park .
This core possesses cyclic sequences deposited in rivers and lakes that drained a volcanically active area .
The youngest detrital zircons in each sediment layer likely record that layer ’ s depositional age , so the scientists dated those zircons in key layers to provide radiometric pinpoints at the core ’ s top and bottom .
The team then applied the same strategy to the Petrified Forest core as they had to the one from Newark Basin .
By 2018 , they had produced an identical astrochronology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the Newark Basin section and therefore “ cements ” its reliability .
The Petrified Forest/Newark Basin astrochronology has had many important implications .
For example , paleontologists have long believed that the Late Triassic fossil record suggests dinosaurs achieved ecological dominance at mid-to-high latitudes millions of years before they achieved this in the tropics .
This conclusion , however , has been controversial because of dating uncertainties .
Application of the Petrified Forest/Newark Basin astrochronology to mid-latitude fossil sites in Argentina and Greenland , and to low-latitude sites in Canada ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirm the delay in tropical dinosaur dominance is real .

To quote (and H/T) Leif Svalgaard:
From EGU Blogs
Lon Abbott November 20, 2020 Stratigraphy, Sedimentology and Palaeontology
This year marks the 100th anniversary of Milutin Milankovitch’s first paper about Earth’s climate. Milankovitch argued that the amount of solar radiation Earth receives, and hence its climate, varies cyclically as its orbit changes due to gravitational tugs from the other planets. His climate theory fell into disrepute during the 1950’s but was rehabilitated in the 1970’s.
Today, many people are aware that cyclic changes in Earth’s orbit, now known as Milankovitch Cycles, repeatedly plunged Earth into and out of glacial episodes during the last 2.7 million years. Less well known, however, is the control those same cycles have exerted to form rhythmically oscillating sedimentary sequences throughout Earth history, thanks to the changes in depositional conditions they induce. Stratigraphers “tune” the chronology of a rhythmic rock sequence to Milankovitch Cycle beats and then anchor those beats to the geologic time scale using radiometric and paleomagnetic dates to produce an astrochronology. Such astrochronologies, because of their unusually high temporal resolution, provide profound insights into the evolution of Earth, its inhabitants, and the Earth-Moon system.
Milankovitch orbital cycles have four primary periods. Earth’s rotation axis precesses on an approximately 20 thousand year cycle and changes its tilt (called obliquity) on an approximately 40 thousand year cycle. Changing gravitational tugs from Jupiter and the inner planets cause our orbit’s eccentricity (the elliptical nature of our orbit) to oscillate in two modes, one approximately 100 thousand years and the other a steady 405 thousand years. The remarkable stability of the 405 thousand year cycle, which is modulated by Jupiter and Venus, makes it the Milankovitch Cycle of choice to construct astrochronologies.
The stratigraphy of the eastern USA’s Newark Basin allowed scientists to construct one important early example. This Triassic rift basin hosts rhythmically alternating lake and fluvial sediments that reflect lake expansion and shrinkage as the climate changed. Scientists tuned the Newark Basin astrochronology to the 405 thousand year Milankovitch Cycle and then tied it to the geologic time scale using magnetic polarity reversals and high-resolution radiometric dates from basalt interbedded with the uppermost sediment layers. Although the chronology’s high temporal resolution appeared to represent a big leap forward, some scientists worried about missing cycles due to unrecognized sedimentary hiatuses; they didn’t trust the astrochronology because it lacked a radiometric date to anchor the sequence’s base.
Clearly, a test of the Newark astrochronology’s accuracy was needed. The scientists had to find a comparably aged section that could be tied to radiometric dates at its top and bottom. In 2013, they found the ideal candidate: a 500-meter-long core drilled in the Chinle Formation of Arizona’s Petrified Forest National Park. This core possesses cyclic sequences deposited in rivers and lakes that drained a volcanically active area. The youngest detrital zircons in each sediment layer likely record that layer’s depositional age, so the scientists dated those zircons in key layers to provide radiometric pinpoints at the core’s top and bottom. The team then applied the same strategy to the Petrified Forest core as they had to the one from Newark Basin. By 2018, they had produced an identical astrochronology that confirms that no cycles are missing from the Newark Basin section and therefore “cements” its reliability.
The Petrified Forest/Newark Basin astrochronology has had many important implications. For example, paleontologists have long believed that the Late Triassic fossil record suggests dinosaurs achieved ecological dominance at mid-to-high latitudes millions of years before they achieved this in the tropics. This conclusion, however, has been controversial because of dating uncertainties. Application of the Petrified Forest/Newark Basin astrochronology to mid-latitude fossil sites in Argentina and Greenland, and to low-latitude sites in Canada’s Fundy Basin and Petrified Forest, now confirm the delay in tropical dinosaur dominance is real.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Winter Storm Batters New England – More Than 250,000 Without Power

About 200,000 customers in Maine alone lost power on Saturday , according to the website PowerOutage .
No problem , right ?
Just turn on your solar heater .
( Your solar heater that ’ s buried under the snow . )
More than 25,000 customers in Massachusetts , more than 46,000 in New Hampshire and more than 2,000 in Connecticut were also left in the dark after a nor ’ easter brought high winds and heavy snow .
The National Weather Service issued winter storm warnings for much of New England .
The storm was expected to wind down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but not before leaving about a foot ( 30 cm ) of snow across most of the region , and as much as 18 inches ( 45 cm ) in some areas .
“ The combination of heavy snowfall rates and strong wind will lead to treacherous travel conditions , whiteout visibilities , and the potential for tree damage/power outages , ” the Weather Service said on Saturday .
“ The snow is super heavy , ” said Roberta Grady , one of those who lost power .
Grady lives in Hooksett , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to drive through 18 inches of heavy wet snow ?
That ’ s deeper than the bumper on your car .
Can you imagine even trying to walk through super heavy snow up to your knees ?
Weather forecasters said it was very likely that northern Maine could get an additional four to eight inches of snow on Sunday .
Thanks to Laurel for this link “ And some of those states want to ban gas as a fuel for heat n cooking etc ?
” says Laurel .
“ Unwise to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Batters New England – More Than 250,000 Without Power appeared first on Ice Age Now .

About 200,000 customers in Maine alone lost power on Saturday, according to the website PowerOutage.
No problem, right? Just turn on your solar heater. (Your solar heater that’s buried under the snow.)
More than 25,000 customers in Massachusetts, more than 46,000 in New Hampshire and more than 2,000 in Connecticut were also left in the dark after a nor’easter brought high winds and heavy snow.
The National Weather Service issued winter storm warnings for much of New England.
The storm was expected to wind down by Sunday evening, it said, but not before leaving about a foot (30 cm) of snow across most of the region, and as much as 18 inches (45 cm) in some areas.
“The combination of heavy snowfall rates and strong wind will lead to treacherous travel conditions, whiteout visibilities, and the potential for tree damage/power outages,” the Weather Service said on Saturday.
“The snow is super heavy,” said Roberta Grady, one of those who lost power. Grady lives in Hooksett, New Hampshire.
Can you imagine trying to drive through 18 inches of heavy wet snow? That’s deeper than the bumper on your car.
Can you imagine even trying to walk through super heavy snow up to your knees?
Weather forecasters said it was very likely that northern Maine could get an additional four to eight inches of snow on Sunday.
https://www.sott.net/article/445337-Winter-storm-batters-New-England-leaving-200000-without-power
Thanks to Laurel for this link
“And some of those states want to ban gas as a fuel for heat n cooking etc?” says Laurel. “Unwise to a huge degree.”
The post Winter Storm Batters New England – More Than 250,000 Without Power appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 6, 2020 at 12:14PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-06--Former WMO Official: CO2 “Insignificant For Balance Of Energy”, “Completely Unnecessary” To Reduce C

Former WMO Official: CO2 “Insignificant For Balance Of Energy”, “Completely Unnecessary” To Reduce CO2

CO2 has little impact on climate , important for life , says former UN official .
With this manuscript I would like to deal with the CO2 topic , which currently seems to be so extremely important for media and politics , solely according to the precepts of free and real scientific argumentation , but also driven by my conscience as a physicist who has been active in this field since about 1960 .
I am compelled by moral obligation for my fellow human beings , to whom one would expect financial sacrifices in the trillions of dollars and very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the following years and decades , although CO2 has practically nothing to do with climate change .
After having played a major role in the development and operation of the German air pollution monitoring network for the DFG and UBA , I had the opportunity to gain a lot of experience as Chief Environment Division at the World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) of the United Nations .
I was also responsible for the office of the WMO “ Panel of Experts on Meteorological Aspects of Environmental Pollution ” .
Its members , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Chemistry in Mainz , Prof. Chr .
Junge as Chairman , were the world ’ s leading experts , mostly heads of university institutes , some of whom were also the authors of the then standard textbooks .
This panel also dealt with the recently emerging interest in CO2 and its presumed impact on the climate .
It was then very clear that , if a quantitative , rather than the previously only qualitative , view were taken , CO2 would have to be virtually insignificant .
This is because the omnipresent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as clouds , fog , etc . )
, which is present in much higher concentrations ( 10-20 liters/m3 ) .
Water vapor absorbs in all IR frequencies and does so 1000 times more strongly and more than the anthropogenic CO2 , which in its very low concentration ( 20-40 milliliters/m3 ) .
absorbs far less in only two IR bands .
For the IR radiation balance , anthropogenic CO2 is ineffective .
The natural frequencies of the two molecules are so different because the O=C=O ( molecular weight 44 ) atom is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weight 18 ) atom is relatively heavier ( H:1 , C:12 , O:16 ) .
Thus , the two molecules are fundamentally different in their IR behavior .
CO2 is not intended by nature as a climatic parameter .
Thanks to its long residence time , it serves to transport organic reactive carbon into the vegetation areas .
Now a statistical correlation between CO2 concentration and atmospheric temperature has been found from observational data .
But it is important to know that such a correlation does not say anything about which of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and above all it is not possible to see if the correlation is a direct causal one .
Because a correlation between two variables seems to exist even if both respond in the same direction with one or more other variables .
That could be clarified with sufficient data .
Since the presumed connection was seen first only qualitatively , fantastic assumptions are available for a hypothesis ; they need only to appear plausible .
There can be no question of a fulfilled criterion .
The suspected connection remains a pure hypothesis as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seriously checked and discussed .
But this no longer happened , because this physical topic was already withdrawn from classical science in the 1970s , taken up decisively by politics and the media and used with zeal to make us believe that CO2 is a “ greenhouse gas ” .
Serious scientists were no longer allowed to have their say , and since then only the hypothesis of the “ climate gas CO2 ” , which was shaped by the media , politics , fanatical laymen , catastrophic media , self-proclaimed know-it-alls of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been valid .
In view of the mass of greener , unobjectively incited followers , the conservative parties felt compelled to do everything they could to keep their voters , but above all to win back those they had lost .
This is how the many climate protection slogans and ultimately also parliamentary “ climate protection ” laws came into being , for which physics must not apply .
The fight for the climate is a matter of life and death .
This was already shown by the first green action that initially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the laws of thermodynamics , it has a slightly better efficiency than the gasoline engine because the diesel cylinder is hotter due to the higher pressure – which also produces the highly life-threatening particulate matter .
The scientific literature of the 1960s had vehemently warned against the diesel engine because its unique , otherwise unheard-of particulate matter penetrates directly into human cells where it causes cancer ( especially in the lungs and brain ) , even enhanced by all the harmful gases whose molecules adhere firmly to this particulate matter .
Thousands of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every year .
But when it came to climate protection , a human life was obviously worth nothing .
In the past , environmental protection also and above all took care of human health .
Today a human life for a few saved CO2 molecules is now good news for the green climate protectors .
By the way , diesel drivers then opted for stronger engines because of the cheaper fuel , thus ultimately emitted more CO2 than they saved .
People continue to murder without hesitation and with a clear conscience because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ macabre moral .
The fine particles of diesel fuel can not be held back by any filter that can be installed in a car .
Filters that can do this would have to have a huge surface or would have such a high flow resistance that the engine would not be able to run well .
It is therefore understandable that car manufacturers have to resort to tricks because they can not change the laws of physics , even if politicians apparently think it is possible .
There is only one possibility : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ removed from the road if one wanted to prevent thousands of deaths every year , but this seems to be no longer an issue .
Killing for “ climate protection ” ?
Simply incredible !
And even an electric car hardly saves any energy because it has to carry the huge battery around with it , while a carburetor car gets the oxygen it needs as an essential element from the air for free .
To the just mentioned thermodynamics : The efficiency of each energy conversion is determined by it .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , coal , gas ) into other forms of energy ( motion , pressure , electrical or potential energy , etc . )
with the help of our highly intelligent technology , according to thermodynamics this happens only partially with an efficiency of usually less than 50 % , on average about 20-40 % .
The remaining 60-80 % are irreversibly lost as “ waste ” heat and causes a warming of the environment , especially the lower air layers .
There are certain possibilities , e.g .
with the combined heat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but here too , the law of residual heat applies to every conversion .
Thus , in all energy conversions we give off about twice the amount of the used energy as waste heat to the lower air layers , a considerable amount .
( By the way , every adult is also a radiator of 75 watts ) .
So our energy consumption alone heats up the environment .
And this energy consumption is of course proportional to the number of people inhabiting the earth .
It allows people to enjoy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ progress provide .
This correlation between energy consumption and the earth ’ s temperature , which is determined by physics , has so far been attributed , without ever wanting to doubt it , only to the CO2 produced by the consumption of fossil fuels .
The CO2 ultimately comes from the oceans .
On the ocean floor , the earth ’ s crust is only 7 km away from the hot interior of the earth .
And the volcanoes on the sea floor release magma into the sea .
This results in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CO2 dissolved in the sea surface .
There it evaporates , also according to the law of partial pressure , and thanks to its extraordinarily long dwell time in the atmosphere , it then reaches the interior of large continents , where it is needed by vegetation .
As the concentration of CO2 increases , the Earth ’ s green spaces increase , as NASA observations have shown .
Nature is clever .
Water vapor almost entirely regulates the energy balance CO2 is therefore primarily to feed us and to supply the biosphere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Therefore , CO2 has its 24-hour maximum at night .
Nevertheless , it is insignificant for the balance of the energy radiated by the sun during the day and the energy released into space at night as infrared radiation , far more than 90 % of the radiated energy .
This balance is , as explained above , regulated almost exclusively by the water content of the atmosphere .
Every morning we get the proof for it .
After a cloudy night , the early temperature is hardly lower than the previous evening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is up to 10°C and more cooler than in the evening before , despite the nightly maximum of anthropogenic CO2 .
If you try to imagine the huge amounts of energy involved , it is easy to understand that the little anthropogenic CO2 gets completely “ lost ” .
Temperature rise “ hardly anything to do with CO2 ” The strong increase in population density , almost tenfold , a whole order of magnitude , which occurred barely 150 years ago with the beginning of industrialization , in the blink of an eye @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ran parallel to the relatively abrupt rise in atmospheric temperature .
As already mentioned , this has hardly anything to do with CO2 .
One can certainly regard CO2 as an indicator of energy consumption , but not as the cause of warming .
It is not only impossible to reduce CO2 , it is also completely unnecessary .
All the planned , expensive , painful measures that reduce our quality of life can be spared without affecting the temperature curve .
So there are only two ways to prevent the so-called “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : A clear restraint in energy consumption of any kind , and , still utopian , to push back the population of the earth , which would require a very long time , if at all possible , it would be a challenge of the century .
To nourish even more inhabitants , fertilizer chemistry would no longer be sufficient .
The planet is probably already overpopulated .
So only the energy saving remains .
Here politics , media , fanatics , Greens , misguided , notorious know-it-alls and self-proclaimed experts of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strategy and leave CO2 to nature .
Without the carbohydrates in our plant-derived food , there would be no more human life .
But we would not burn up in an apocalyptic climate catastrophe , because instead we would all first suffocate without the oxygen obtained from CO2 .
But all those who present themselves so devotedly and overly self-confidently as the preventers of an apocalypse , they should realize that nature can not be changed and that man can not , and does not want to , fight against natural events .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and even inspiration .
They also should not constantly imagine catastrophes and present them as the sure future for our children , who are unable to psychologically process them and therefore have to be treated psychologically , probably even Greta Thunberg .
When it comes to saving energy , there are still countless possibilities for heating , cooking , cooling , transport , etc .
We already know this .
Only a small example : When preparing meals , even a small family can easily save 1-2 kWh each if the cooking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Just a few drops and a well-fitting lid are enough for healthy steaming at a reduced cooker temperature , because to heat water from 20° to 100° you need about 80 kcal per ml , but to evaporate the 100° hot water you need another 540 kcal per ml .
Where you see steam , energy is being wasted massively .
That says it all .
With a little thought , everyone can find many ways to save energy , there are almost no limits to your imagination .
And besides , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safely forget about CO2 !
Its removal would only bring us misfortune .
And even if we could completely eliminate anthropogenic CO2 , nature would simply get it back from the oceans .
Even the burial of CO2 would be pointless .
No model has come true , incorrect , arbitrary assumptions A few words about the often quoted climate models .
These models are adapted to known weather data from the past and then extrapolated into the future .
No model has been correct beyond a forecast period of a few months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So the question is justified how well models can predict the weather for decades and centuries .
In any case , nothing that the first climate models predicted for today in 1970 came true , no meter-high rise in sea level , no 4-5° higher temperatures .
Too much had been ignored in the models , they also contain some factors whose value can not be determined experimentally and must be estimated arbitrarily .
So one is easily tempted to choose them in such a way that one comes close to the hoped-for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ H2O was underestimated in the models , the CO2 effect had to be overestimated to get the desired prediction curve , as a Finnish academic paper recently reported .
The models also calculated how much Germany can contribute to lowering the temperature by the planned reduction of CO2 .
Result : 7/100 degrees , theoretically , and unmeasurable .
No noticeable success for two trillion euros .
Creation can not be botched up .
Man can not change the world .
He can not , as already indicated , mobilize the necessary energies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the approximately 7000 thunderstorms daily converts the energy of the Hiroshima bomb in one hour ( which it did in a fraction of a second ) ; a single tropical cyclone has the energy that corresponds to man ’ s global consumption of electrical energy in one year ; and if one wanted to generate the heat that the small Gulf Stream carries , one would have to operate 110,000 nuclear power plants across the Atlantic , i.e .
one every 50 meters ( not km ) .
That shows how weak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ man could make weather , he would have a new weapon of war .
Good thing that we know so little about the weather that we can not do it ourselves .
( Spatially and temporally very limited precipitation can be influenced , nothing more ) .
In the end , wise nature protects us .
Another observation gives us clues for the temporal sequence of heat and CO2 concentration .
Recent palaeoclimatic studies show that in the course of the earth ’ s history , it became warmer first and then the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , as already mentioned , by far the largest part of CO2 on earth is found in the oceans .
The concentrations in the depths are higher than in the upper layers , a consequence of the many volcanoes active on the ocean floor .
By the way , the CO2 in the ocean also serves to enable the life of calcareous aquatic plants ( e.g .
corals ) .
The worldwide consensus on the CO2 issue is repeatedly pointed out .
This was mainly due to the fact that skeptical scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and their work no longer published ( also because publishers were afraid of fanatics who were ready to commit terror ) .
Skeptics , often inappropriately called “ climate deniers ” , are insulted , silenced under threats or career consequences .
Yet , the scientific research institutes ( climate impact research ) run by the state at high cost would have to be closed down if they accepted CO2 as insignificant .
Many jobs would be lost .
This can not be risked .
But a consensus among those ( where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the field – there are not that many ) is not a scientific criterion .
Consensus as proof ?
Only to the ignorant !
The planet ’ s climate control system regulates the infrared radiation budget with water vapor and clouds .
A reduction of anthropogenic CO2 , with an enormously expensive expenditure and loss of life quality , is not suitable for this purpose because of its low IR sensitivity .
The waste heat inevitably generated by 9 billion earthlings according to the physics of thermodynamics can only be reduced by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by a decrease in population .
However , as already mentioned , this can be done by the diesel engine , especially as SUV .
Whether politicians want to make further use of this possibility is up to their ethical standards .
What is new is that Chinese climate researchers recently reported several long-term temperature cycles with periods of varying length .
These will have a roughly simultaneous minimum in the coming decades , leading to significantly lower temperatures initially in Central Asia .
It can not be ruled out that the rest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

CO2 has little impact on climate, important for life, says former UN official.
By Albert Köhler MSc.
(Translation, editing, subheadings by P Gosselin)
With this manuscript I would like to deal with the CO2 topic, which currently seems to be so extremely important for media and politics, solely according to the precepts of free and real scientific argumentation, but also driven by my conscience as a physicist who has been active in this field since about 1960. I am compelled by moral obligation for my fellow human beings, to whom one would expect financial sacrifices in the trillions of dollars and very significant losses in quality of life in the following years and decades, although CO2 has practically nothing to do with climate change.
After having played a major role in the development and operation of the German air pollution monitoring network for the DFG and UBA, I had the opportunity to gain a lot of experience as Chief Environment Division at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations. I was also responsible for the office of the WMO “Panel of Experts on Meteorological Aspects of Environmental Pollution”. Its members, under the then Director of the MPI for Chemistry in Mainz, Prof. Chr. Junge as Chairman, were the world’s leading experts, mostly heads of university institutes, some of whom were also the authors of the then standard textbooks. This panel also dealt with the recently emerging interest in CO2 and its presumed impact on the climate.
Water vapor 1000 times stronger
It was then very clear that, if a quantitative, rather than the previously only qualitative, view were taken, CO2 would have to be virtually insignificant. This is because the omnipresent water vapor of the atmosphere (H2O as clouds, fog, etc.), which is present in much higher concentrations (10-20 liters/m3). Water vapor absorbs in all IR frequencies and does so 1000 times more strongly and more than the anthropogenic CO2, which in its very low concentration (20-40 milliliters/m3). absorbs far less in only two IR bands. For the IR radiation balance, anthropogenic CO2 is ineffective. The natural frequencies of the two molecules are so different because the O=C=O (molecular weight 44) atom is relatively lighter and the H-O-H (molecular weight 18) atom is relatively heavier (H:1, C:12, O:16). Thus, the two molecules are fundamentally different in their IR behavior. CO2 is not intended by nature as a climatic parameter. Thanks to its long residence time, it serves to transport organic reactive carbon into the vegetation areas.
Correlation not a causal one
Now a statistical correlation between CO2 concentration and atmospheric temperature has been found from observational data. But it is important to know that such a correlation does not say anything about which of the two variables is cause and effect, and above all it is not possible to see if the correlation is a direct causal one. Because a correlation between two variables seems to exist even if both respond in the same direction with one or more other variables. That could be clarified with sufficient data. Since the presumed connection was seen first only qualitatively, fantastic assumptions are available for a hypothesis; they need only to appear plausible. There can be no question of a fulfilled criterion. The suspected connection remains a pure hypothesis as long as not all doubts have been seriously checked and discussed.
Serious scientists blocked out
But this no longer happened, because this physical topic was already withdrawn from classical science in the 1970s, taken up decisively by politics and the media and used with zeal to make us believe that CO2 is a “greenhouse gas”. Serious scientists were no longer allowed to have their say, and since then only the hypothesis of the “climate gas CO2”, which was shaped by the media, politics, fanatical laymen, catastrophic media, self-proclaimed know-it-alls of all faculties and political parties, has been valid. In view of the mass of greener, unobjectively incited followers, the conservative parties felt compelled to do everything they could to keep their voters, but above all to win back those they had lost. This is how the many climate protection slogans and ultimately also parliamentary “climate protection” laws came into being, for which physics must not apply.
Diesel engines initially welcome
The fight for the climate is a matter of life and death. This was already shown by the first green action that initially coddled the diesel engine. According to the laws of thermodynamics, it has a slightly better efficiency than the gasoline engine because the diesel cylinder is hotter due to the higher pressure – which also produces the highly life-threatening particulate matter. The scientific literature of the 1960s had vehemently warned against the diesel engine because its unique, otherwise unheard-of particulate matter penetrates directly into human cells where it causes cancer (especially in the lungs and brain), even enhanced by all the harmful gases whose molecules adhere firmly to this particulate matter. Thousands of frequent drivers therefore have to die earlier every year. But when it came to climate protection, a human life was obviously worth nothing.
Human life acceptable price for saving CO2
In the past, environmental protection also and above all took care of human health. Today a human life for a few saved CO2 molecules is now good news for the green climate protectors. By the way, diesel drivers then opted for stronger engines because of the cheaper fuel, thus ultimately emitted more CO2 than they saved. People continue to murder without hesitation and with a clear conscience because they supposedly save CO2, a very macabre moral. The fine particles of diesel fuel cannot be held back by any filter that can be installed in a car. Filters that can do this would have to have a huge surface or would have such a high flow resistance that the engine would not be able to run well. It is therefore understandable that car manufacturers have to resort to tricks because they cannot change the laws of physics, even if politicians apparently think it is possible. There is only one possibility: The diesel engine would have to be removed from the road if one wanted to prevent thousands of deaths every year, but this seems to be no longer an issue. Killing for “climate protection”? Simply incredible! And even an electric car hardly saves any energy because it has to carry the huge battery around with it, while a carburetor car gets the oxygen it needs as an essential element from the air for free.
Energy conversion leads to waste heat
To the just mentioned thermodynamics: The efficiency of each energy conversion is determined by it. So if we convert chemical energy (oil, coal, gas) into other forms of energy (motion, pressure, electrical or potential energy, etc.) with the help of our highly intelligent technology, according to thermodynamics this happens only partially with an efficiency of usually less than 50%, on average about 20-40%. The remaining 60-80% are irreversibly lost as “waste” heat and causes a warming of the environment, especially the lower air layers. There are certain possibilities, e.g. with the combined heat and power system, to use residual heat, but here too, the law of residual heat applies to every conversion. Thus, in all energy conversions we give off about twice the amount of the used energy as waste heat to the lower air layers, a considerable amount. (By the way, every adult is also a radiator of 75 watts). So our energy consumption alone heats up the environment. And this energy consumption is of course proportional to the number of people inhabiting the earth. It allows people to enjoy all the comforts that science and technical progress provide.
CO2 leads to greening
This correlation between energy consumption and the earth’s temperature, which is determined by physics, has so far been attributed, without ever wanting to doubt it, only to the CO2 produced by the consumption of fossil fuels. The CO2 ultimately comes from the oceans. On the ocean floor, the earth’s crust is only 7 km away from the hot interior of the earth. And the volcanoes on the sea floor release magma into the sea. This results in the formation of various compounds, including CO2 dissolved in the sea surface. There it evaporates, also according to the law of partial pressure, and thanks to its extraordinarily long dwell time in the atmosphere, it then reaches the interior of large continents, where it is needed by vegetation. As the concentration of CO2 increases, the Earth’s green spaces increase, as NASA observations have shown. Nature is clever.
Water vapor almost entirely regulates the energy balance
CO2 is therefore primarily to feed us and to supply the biosphere with the oxygen released during photosynthesis. Therefore, CO2 has its 24-hour maximum at night. Nevertheless, it is insignificant for the balance of the energy radiated by the sun during the day and the energy released into space at night as infrared radiation, far more than 90% of the radiated energy. This balance is, as explained above, regulated almost exclusively by the water content of the atmosphere. Every morning we get the proof for it. After a cloudy night, the early temperature is hardly lower than the previous evening, but in the open air it is up to 10°C and more cooler than in the evening before, despite the nightly maximum of anthropogenic CO2. If you try to imagine the huge amounts of energy involved, it is easy to understand that the little anthropogenic CO2 gets completely “lost”.
Temperature rise “hardly anything to do with CO2”
The strong increase in population density, almost tenfold, a whole order of magnitude, which occurred barely 150 years ago with the beginning of industrialization, in the blink of an eye in the history of the Earth, ran parallel to the relatively abrupt rise in atmospheric temperature. As already mentioned, this has hardly anything to do with CO2. One can certainly regard CO2 as an indicator of energy consumption, but not as the cause of warming. It is not only impossible to reduce CO2, it is also completely unnecessary. All the planned, expensive, painful measures that reduce our quality of life can be spared without affecting the temperature curve.
Curbing waste heat from 9 billion people
So there are only two ways to prevent the so-called “climate catastrophe”. And these are: A clear restraint in energy consumption of any kind, and, still utopian, to push back the population of the earth, which would require a very long time, if at all possible, it would be a challenge of the century. To nourish even more inhabitants, fertilizer chemistry would no longer be sufficient. The planet is probably already overpopulated. So only the energy saving remains. Here politics, media, fanatics, Greens, misguided, notorious know-it-alls and self-proclaimed experts of all colors must abandon the past comfortable consensus strategy and leave CO2 to nature. Without the carbohydrates in our plant-derived food, there would be no more human life. But we would not burn up in an apocalyptic climate catastrophe, because instead we would all first suffocate without the oxygen obtained from CO2.
Leave the climate catastrophe threats out
But all those who present themselves so devotedly and overly self-confidently as the preventers of an apocalypse, they should realize that nature cannot be changed and that man cannot, and does not want to, fight against natural events. They should accept it with due modesty, and even inspiration. They also should not constantly imagine catastrophes and present them as the sure future for our children, who are unable to psychologically process them and therefore have to be treated psychologically, probably even Greta Thunberg.
Many easy, practical ways to save energy
When it comes to saving energy, there are still countless possibilities for heating, cooking, cooling, transport, etc. We already know this. Only a small example: When preparing meals, even a small family can easily save 1-2 kWh each if the cooking pots are not filled with water. Just a few drops and a well-fitting lid are enough for healthy steaming at a reduced cooker temperature, because to heat water from 20° to 100° you need about 80 kcal per ml, but to evaporate the 100° hot water you need another 540 kcal per ml. Where you see steam, energy is being wasted massively. That says it all. With a little thought, everyone can find many ways to save energy, there are almost no limits to your imagination. And besides, you even save money. But you can safely forget about CO2! Its removal would only bring us misfortune. And even if we could completely eliminate anthropogenic CO2, nature would simply get it back from the oceans. Even the burial of CO2 would be pointless.
No model has come true, incorrect, arbitrary assumptions
A few words about the often quoted climate models. These models are adapted to known weather data from the past and then extrapolated into the future. No model has been correct beyond a forecast period of a few months with forecasts that are still acceptable. So the question is justified how well models can predict the weather for decades and centuries. In any case, nothing that the first climate models predicted for today in 1970 came true, no meter-high rise in sea level, no 4-5° higher temperatures. Too much had been ignored in the models, they also contain some factors whose value cannot be determined experimentally and must be estimated arbitrarily. So one is easily tempted to choose them in such a way that one comes close to the hoped-for result. But because the influence of H2O was underestimated in the models, the CO2 effect had to be overestimated to get the desired prediction curve, as a Finnish academic paper recently reported.
Statistically insignificant, unmeasurable human impact
The models also calculated how much Germany can contribute to lowering the temperature by the planned reduction of CO2. Result: 7/100 degrees, theoretically, and unmeasurable. No noticeable success for two trillion euros. Creation cannot be botched up. Man cannot change the world. He cannot, as already indicated, mobilize the necessary energies. Here are some examples: Each of the approximately 7000 thunderstorms daily converts the energy of the Hiroshima bomb in one hour (which it did in a fraction of a second); a single tropical cyclone has the energy that corresponds to man’s global consumption of electrical energy in one year; and if one wanted to generate the heat that the small Gulf Stream carries, one would have to operate 110,000 nuclear power plants across the Atlantic, i.e. one every 50 meters (not km). That shows how weak humans are. Thank heavens because if man could make weather, he would have a new weapon of war. Good thing that we know so little about the weather that we cannot do it ourselves. (Spatially and temporally very limited precipitation can be influenced, nothing more). In the end, wise nature protects us.
CO2 follows temperature
Another observation gives us clues for the temporal sequence of heat and CO2 concentration. Recent palaeoclimatic studies show that in the course of the earth’s history, it became warmer first and then the CO2 increased. It must be considered that, as already mentioned, by far the largest part of CO2 on earth is found in the oceans. The concentrations in the depths are higher than in the upper layers, a consequence of the many volcanoes active on the ocean floor. By the way, the CO2 in the ocean also serves to enable the life of calcareous aquatic plants (e.g. corals).
Climate science consensus is a myth, scientists silenced
The worldwide consensus on the CO2 issue is repeatedly pointed out. This was mainly due to the fact that skeptical scientists were often silenced in an unseemly manner, and their work no longer published (also because publishers were afraid of fanatics who were ready to commit terror). Skeptics, often inappropriately called “climate deniers”, are insulted, silenced under threats or career consequences. Yet, the scientific research institutes (climate impact research) run by the state at high cost would have to be closed down if they accepted CO2 as insignificant. Many jobs would be lost. This cannot be risked. But a consensus among those (where a vast majority cannot be experts in the field – there are not that many) is not a scientific criterion.
Consensus as proof? Only to the ignorant!
Short summary, and interesting news
The planet’s climate control system regulates the infrared radiation budget with water vapor and clouds. A reduction of anthropogenic CO2, with an enormously expensive expenditure and loss of life quality, is not suitable for this purpose because of its low IR sensitivity. The waste heat inevitably generated by 9 billion earthlings according to the physics of thermodynamics can only be reduced by strict energy saving or at some point by a decrease in population. However, as already mentioned, this can be done by the diesel engine, especially as SUV. Whether politicians want to make further use of this possibility is up to their ethical standards.
What is new is that Chinese climate researchers recently reported several long-term temperature cycles with periods of varying length. These will have a roughly simultaneous minimum in the coming decades, leading to significantly lower temperatures initially in Central Asia.
It cannot be ruled out that the rest of the world will also be affected.
Albert Köhler MSc.
Germany, November 2020
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December 6, 2020 at 11:18AM