iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-31--Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus

No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold , but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes .
Indeed , as the author of one chapter in a recent book [ 1 ] states : “ One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it really difficult to comprehend is how fast such a process actually is .
Our daily experiences do not prepare us to judge such a process accurately , or to make sensible predictions.
” [ emphasis is mine . ]
Quests to reveal a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what people guess to be exponential processes , run through many themes here at WUWT — future climate , energy demand , economics , epidemics .
This guest contribution takes a selected look at exponential growth .
Two examples are historical , and perhaps obscure , but pertinent .
The third one , which comprises the bulk of this essay , is an examination of R0 , which dominates the present imagination .
Cattle arrived on the Northern Plains of the U.S. frontier first in the mid-1860s .
The industry was infested with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and such , who promoted using tales of how to get rich on the plains to Eastern and European investors .
Some early investors made money selling to bigger cattle corporations .
But the industry was based on cattle herds rather than titles to real property , and cattle counts were notoriously difficult to carry out .
Thus , much of the promotion and accounting became based on “ book ” counts .
These were not credible , but had the effect of a stampede to the plains financed by people who little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Figure 1 shows an actual book count against a Fibonacci series representing a hypothetical rabbits .
[ 2 ] The exponential behavior of the book count is obvious .
The hard winter of 1886-1887 , which was an instance of weather not climate change , wiped out many live cattle , but it wiped out many larger book counts .
It provided an opportunity for the range managers to adjust plainly inaccurate inventories and save face at the same time .
The story at the present day , for the few who know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is of millions of cattle perishing in blizzards .
It is much more acceptable to be bankrupted by weather than by foolish belief in an exponent .
Is there a modern equivalent ?
Well , the strangely smooth curve of Chinese deaths from COVID19 looks like one .
It resembles a calculated curve with a certain goal in mind , rather than a measured curve with all the wiggles back and forth like the comparison curves from other countries .
Electric energy demand grew at an exponential rate after WWII , especially during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into every conceivable corner of North America , and new uses , such as the mercury vapor light , expanded into every conceivable market .
The near perfect fit of geometrical growth of 7.13 % per annum to electrical demand in 1960-1972 as Figure 2 shows , led to wild predictions of future demand and its consequences .
A simple projection of constant geometrical growth ( Figure 3 ) arrives at a staggering demand of 12 TWhr in year 2000 , and one might be tempted to dismiss it .
However , 1972 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by NSF , produced a “ consensus ” estimate of 10.25 TWhr , which is not much lower .
[ 3 ] These estimates were driven by exponential growth in usage and population .
What occurred in the 1970s was a constant drumbeat of future shortages , the decimation of free flowing rivers , the needed changes to society and the economy , the need for government mandates because government is the only institution big enough to deal with the crisis .
Untold amounts of taxpayer and private money poured into schemes long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should have been ( geothermal ) .
The crisis prompted everyone to push their preferred hobby horse .
Sounds familiar .
What actually happened post 1970s ?
Actual electrical energy consumption never reached 40 % of these projections .
Figure 4 shows electric consumption to the present time along with the supply available from selected sources .
Note the supply from petroleum .
It provided a large source of electrical energy pre-1973 .
However , the two oil price shocks ( 1973 and 1979 ) had the effect of immediately putting a halt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generate electricity and diminished it each time .
[ 4 ] People may not comprehend the speed of exponentials , but they respond quickly to prices .
More interesting still is that not only did demand not grow exponentially after 1972 , but that post 2008 it hasn ’ t grown at all , as Figure 4 also shows .
We appear to have reached a point where slowing economic growth has enabled innovation such as outsourcing , container ships , LED light bulbs and myriad other things to provide increased standard of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Can it continue ?
Time will tell .
In times of crisis , real or imagined , people become fixated on certain technical measures or parameters of the problem , which become something like fetishes .
The mean temperature of the Earth , the level of CO2 , or its rate of production all play such a role in climate change .
The parameter R0 , the basic reproductive ratio , plays such a role in the present COVID19 crisis .
Let ’ s explain what R0 describes , and what it has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the present pandemic .
The best way to explain R0 is through a simple model of an epidemic involving three populations : X , the population of people who are susceptible to a disease but who are presently not infected ; Y , the population of infected ( and infectious ) people ; and Z , the population who have recovered , and are not for the present time likely to fall back into population Y .
Many factors affect population X — births , deaths , migration , and so forth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ an epidemic we might consider only becoming infected and transitioning to population Y as having any pertinence .
People often model the factor describing this transition as a term like -BXY .
The product of populations ( XY ) indicates something about the probability of an X person encountering an infected one ; B is a factor of transmissibility describing the probability that the encounter between an X and a Y results in X becoming infected .
It should be obvious that in the short term any person leaving the group of Xs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So , the equation describing the rate of change of Y contains the term +BXY .
However , the change of Y also depends on the rate at which the infected become well , and transition to the group of Zs — a rate we call U , and the rate at which infected people die and vanish from the model altogether — a rate we call V. Thus our differential equation for Y is Someone familiar with differential equations will recognize the factor ( BX – ( U+V ) ) as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tends to make this time constant positive , and results in a population of Y which grows exponentially ; large ( U+V ) tends to push it toward negative values which would result in exponential decay .
People don ’ t like to deal with summations of factors in a time constant , and in the case of epidemics what people have done is to turn the time constant into a ratio , with those factors tending to make it positive in the numerator and those making it negative in the denominator .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ = BX/ ( U+V ) ref .
[ 5 ] There is a tendency , apparently even among the medical community , to think of R0 as a sort of time constant , but it is not .
It is a dimensionless measure more akin to what engineers would call a figure of merit .
There is also a tendency to think of it as intrinsically a function of the disease itself .
It is not .
Let ’ s discuss each factor in turn and explain what about each factor is important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has to do not only with how easily a disease intrinsically jumps from person to person ( like measles with a large value of B ) , but also has to do with cultural and social factors of the Xs .
Touchy-feely sorts of societies will make B larger and push R0 to a value larger than 1.0 ; other societies have more intrinsic distance and push B toward smaller values .
All sorts of strategies to increase social distance — lockdowns , isolation of the vulnerable , isolation of the infected and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ B smaller in value .
X , the population of unaffected people , doesn ’ t necessarily include the entire population .
There are people with intrinsic immunity to the disease .
For example , Willis ’ s contribution from some time ago pointed out that on the Grand Princess not everyone who was exposed became infected .
Perhaps only 20-40 % did .
[ 6 ] Obviously X depends on the age distribution and also on the distribution of other morbidities in a population .
A common strategy to reduce X is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the virulence of the disease , but also has to do with population characteristics such as age distribution and other morbidities .
Within my home state we have an unusually large fraction of the known infected who have recovered quickly .
It suggests a lower R0 than places displaying long convalescent periods .
Does this tell us anything valuable about COVID19 , or does it simply reflect differences in various state departments of health making assessments of recovery ?
One strategy toward boosting U is to employ treatments such as what New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What is important about R0 ?
R0 is not a constant .
As a disease progresses through a population X becomes smaller and tends to push R0 to smaller values .
Eventually it becomes small enough that R0 falls to a value less than one and the epidemic peters out .
This is the principal factor that converts the initial exponential growth of an epidemic to a logistic sort of curve toward its conclusion .
Also , just like example about energy , people change their behavior in a time of stress .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hygiene — factors which improve B .
Also , different ethnic groups and different parts of the U.S. will display different values of R0 .
These combined factors probably explain the wiggly behavior of the various graphs on the Daily Coronavirus Graph page .
Having an accurate estimate of R0 , especially early in an epidemic cycle , would be very useful for public health policies .
Here are the hurdles one has to clear to get an accurate value : First , the most valuable estimate of R0 to get ahead of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the epidemic .
Without experience to draw upon a person has to use observations .
The only population leading to a useful estimate of R0 is the infected , Y .
We have no idea how this population is growing at present relative to X .
Second , I have commented elsewhere about individuals local to me who are not only included in the “ cases ” of two neighboring states ( double counted ) , but who may have been placed within the data at the wrong time of exposure and infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when there are very few infected individuals .
Such estimates are very sensitive to errors of observation .
Observations placed erroneously too far along in the epidemic will have the effect of erroneously making R0 too large ; while those placed erroneously too early will make R0 appear , erroneously , too small .
Because all of the factors involved in R0 keep changing with time , one has to keep collecting timely data for evaluation about effectiveness of strategies .
Thus one is always presented with the problem of limited individuals who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which individuals should be counted , and exactly where to place them in sequence .
At no time does estimating R0 become simple .
Third , because R0 is not a time constant , but rather a dimensionless figure of merit , the pertinent observations for its estimate are of the growth generation to generation — that is , growth of Y in the chain of transmission from person to person .
In my state public health officials estimate that more than 60 % of the infected can explain where they were infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be tempered with knowledge of how faulty people ’ s memories are .
One MD has spoken elsewhere about observations , such as the spread through the call center at Daegu , South Korea , which suggest an R0 well below 1.0 .
However much his number may pertain to the special case of this particular call center , the value of R0 can not be below 1.0 generally .
If it were , the plainly obvious growing epidemic across the U.S. at present would require an utterly improbable set of initial conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ R0 ( 2.0 to 2.6 ) used by Neil Ferguson , along with estimates of generation duration and other parameters , propelled initial panic .
One can tell from the press conferences that Dr. Fauci , Trump ’ s principal advisor , is still highly influenced by these early estimates.These were guesses , albeit educated ones .
Apparently Ferguson is stepping back from these initial estimates .
This is just my opinion , but it appears that we , across the Western world , were unprepared to gather the sort of data early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an actionable time — for example rather than daily counts of infections we need counts by generation of spread , and estimates of uncertainty .
Estimates of deaths in Britain from 20,000 to 500,000 do nothing to aid in policy prescriptions .
There is no doubt that we will survive this pandemic , but at great cost .
A famous quotation seems apropo : After this crisis has passed we really need to have a sober evaluation of strategies versus outcome , and decide whether we might have done better .
We should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nic Lewis ’ s contribution is an example of sober analysis ; so is Alec Rawls ’ s .
We do not need a second such victory over exponents .
[ 1 ] Philip Dutre , Thinking and Conscious Machines ?
, in “ A Truly Golden Handbook ” , Ed .
by Veerle Achten , Geert Bouckaert , Erik Schokkaert , Leuven University Press , 2017 .
Throughout Fulton ’ s early chapters quotations refer to the book counts as “ arithmetic progressions ” when in fact they are geometrical .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Strahorn , one time superintendent of the Union Pacific Railroad .
[ 3 ] This projection , along with the projections of the Federal Power Commission and National Petroleum Council would be featured in Congressional testimony in May 1972 and in a companion paper in ( Chapman , et .
al.
, Science , v.78 , p.703-708,1972 ) as Table 1 .
While the authors stated that these projections might prove too high , they emphasized that “ …to the extent that past population growth rates continue , the projections of Table 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electrical consumption data are from EIA spreadsheets .
[ 5 ] Martin Nowak , Evolutionary Dynamics , Belknap/Harvard Press , 2006 .
Nowak ’ s definition is not exactly like mine but is functionally the same .

Guest Post by Kevin Kilty
No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes. Indeed, as the author of one chapter in a recent book [1] states:
“One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it really difficult to comprehend is how fast such a process actually is. Our daily experiences do not prepare us to judge such a process accurately, or to make sensible predictions.” [emphasis is mine.]
Quests to reveal a future governed by exponential processes, or what people guess to be exponential processes, run through many themes here at WUWT — future climate, energy demand, economics, epidemics. This guest contribution takes a selected look at exponential growth. Two examples are historical, and perhaps obscure, but pertinent. The third one, which comprises the bulk of this essay, is an examination of R0, which dominates the present imagination.
Failure on the Plains
Cattle arrived on the Northern Plains of the U.S. frontier first in the mid-1860s. The industry was infested with promoters, people with interests in railroads and such, who promoted using tales of how to get rich on the plains to Eastern and European investors. Some early investors made money selling to bigger cattle corporations. But the industry was based on cattle herds rather than titles to real property, and cattle counts were notoriously difficult to carry out. Thus, much of the promotion and accounting became based on “book” counts. These were not credible, but had the effect of a stampede to the plains financed by people who little understood the business or its risks.
Figure 1 shows an actual book count against a Fibonacci series representing a hypothetical rabbits.[2] The exponential behavior of the book count is obvious.
Figure 1.
The hard winter of 1886-1887, which was an instance of weather not climate change, wiped out many live cattle, but it wiped out many larger book counts. It provided an opportunity for the range managers to adjust plainly inaccurate inventories and save face at the same time. The story at the present day, for the few who know anything of the story at all, is of millions of cattle perishing in blizzards. It is much more acceptable to be bankrupted by weather than by foolish belief in an exponent.
Is there a modern equivalent? Well, the strangely smooth curve of Chinese deaths from COVID19 looks like one. It resembles a calculated curve with a certain goal in mind, rather than a measured curve with all the wiggles back and forth like the comparison curves from other countries.
Projection of Electric Energy Demand
Electric energy demand grew at an exponential rate after WWII, especially during the 1960s, when the grid expanded into every conceivable corner of North America, and new uses, such as the mercury vapor light, expanded into every conceivable market. The near perfect fit of geometrical growth of 7.13% per annum to electrical demand in 1960-1972 as Figure 2 shows, led to wild predictions of future demand and its consequences. A simple projection of constant geometrical growth (Figure 3) arrives at a staggering demand of 12 TWhr in year 2000, and one might be tempted to dismiss it. However, 1972 a workshop held at Cornell, sponsored by NSF, produced a “consensus” estimate of 10.25 TWhr, which is not much lower. [3] These estimates were driven by exponential growth in usage and population.
Figure 2.
What occurred in the 1970s was a constant drumbeat of future shortages, the decimation of free flowing rivers, the needed changes to society and the economy, the need for government mandates because government is the only institution big enough to deal with the crisis. Untold amounts of taxpayer and private money poured into schemes long forgotten (magnetohydrodynamics) or schemes that should have been (geothermal). The crisis prompted everyone to push their preferred hobby horse. Sounds familiar.
Figure 3.
What actually happened post 1970s? Actual electrical energy consumption never reached 40% of these projections. Figure 4 shows electric consumption to the present time along with the supply available from selected sources. Note the supply from petroleum. It provided a large source of electrical energy pre-1973. However, the two oil price shocks (1973 and 1979) had the effect of immediately putting a halt to the growing use of petroleum to generate electricity and diminished it each time.[4] People may not comprehend the speed of exponentials, but they respond quickly to prices.
More interesting still is that not only did demand not grow exponentially after 1972, but that post 2008 it hasn’t grown at all, as Figure 4 also shows. We appear to have reached a point where slowing economic growth has enabled innovation such as outsourcing, container ships, LED light bulbs and myriad other things to provide increased standard of living without use of more energy. Can it continue? Time will tell.
Figure 4.
Trajectory of a Pandemic
In times of crisis, real or imagined, people become fixated on certain technical measures or parameters of the problem, which become something like fetishes. The mean temperature of the Earth, the level of CO2, or its rate of production all play such a role in climate change. The parameter R0, the basic reproductive ratio, plays such a role in the present COVID19 crisis. Let’s explain what R0 describes, and what it has to do with some selected observations about the present pandemic.
What is R0?
The best way to explain R0 is through a simple model of an epidemic involving three populations: X, the population of people who are susceptible to a disease but who are presently not infected; Y, the population of infected (and infectious) people; and Z, the population who have recovered, and are not for the present time likely to fall back into population Y.
Many factors affect population X — births, deaths, migration, and so forth. However, over a short period of an epidemic we might consider only becoming infected and transitioning to population Y as having any pertinence. People often model the factor describing this transition as a term like -BXY. The product of populations (XY) indicates something about the probability of an X person encountering an infected one; B is a factor of transmissibility describing the probability that the encounter between an X and a Y results in X becoming infected.
It should be obvious that in the short term any person leaving the group of Xs does so by entering the Ys. So, the equation describing the rate of change of Y contains the term +BXY. However, the change of Y also depends on the rate at which the infected become well, and transition to the group of Zs — a rate we call U, and the rate at which infected people die and vanish from the model altogether — a rate we call V. Thus our differential equation for Y is
dY/dt = (BX – (U+V)) Y
Someone familiar with differential equations will recognize the factor (BX – (U+V)) as a sort of time constant; large BX tends to make this time constant positive, and results in a population of Y which grows exponentially; large (U+V) tends to push it toward negative values which would result in exponential decay.
People don’t like to deal with summations of factors in a time constant, and in the case of epidemics what people have done is to turn the time constant into a ratio, with those factors tending to make it positive in the numerator and those making it negative in the denominator.
The resulting definition is something like R0 = BX/(U+V) ref.[5]
There is a tendency, apparently even among the medical community, to think of R0 as a sort of time constant, but it is not. It is a dimensionless measure more akin to what engineers would call a figure of merit. There is also a tendency to think of it as intrinsically a function of the disease itself. It is not. Let’s discuss each factor in turn and explain what about each factor is important to the epidemic.
The factor B has to do not only with how easily a disease intrinsically jumps from person to person (like measles with a large value of B), but also has to do with cultural and social factors of the Xs. Touchy-feely sorts of societies will make B larger and push R0 to a value larger than 1.0; other societies have more intrinsic distance and push B toward smaller values. All sorts of strategies to increase social distance — lockdowns, isolation of the vulnerable, isolation of the infected and even disinfecting surfaces — seek to make B smaller in value.
X, the population of unaffected people, doesn’t necessarily include the entire population. There are people with intrinsic immunity to the disease. For example, Willis’s contribution from some time ago pointed out that on the Grand Princess not everyone who was exposed became infected. Perhaps only 20-40% did.[6] Obviously X depends on the age distribution and also on the distribution of other morbidities in a population. A common strategy to reduce X is immunization.
Factor U has to do with the virulence of the disease, but also has to do with population characteristics such as age distribution and other morbidities. Within my home state we have an unusually large fraction of the known infected who have recovered quickly. It suggests a lower R0 than places displaying long convalescent periods. Does this tell us anything valuable about COVID19, or does it simply reflect differences in various state departments of health making assessments of recovery? One strategy toward boosting U is to employ treatments such as what New York City is attempting with chloroquine.
What is important about R0?
R0 is not a constant. As a disease progresses through a population X becomes smaller and tends to push R0 to smaller values. Eventually it becomes small enough that R0 falls to a value less than one and the epidemic peters out. This is the principal factor that converts the initial exponential growth of an epidemic to a logistic sort of curve toward its conclusion. Also, just like example about energy, people change their behavior in a time of stress. They avoid other people, and improve hygiene — factors which improve B. Also, different ethnic groups and different parts of the U.S. will display different values of R0. These combined factors probably explain the wiggly behavior of the various graphs on the Daily Coronavirus Graph page.
Getting a handle on R0
Having an accurate estimate of R0, especially early in an epidemic cycle, would be very useful for public health policies. Here are the hurdles one has to clear to get an accurate value:
First, the most valuable estimate of R0 to get ahead of an epidemic is one made early in the epidemic. Without experience to draw upon a person has to use observations. The only population leading to a useful estimate of R0 is the infected, Y. We have no idea how this population is growing at present relative to X.
Second, I have commented elsewhere about individuals local to me who are not only included in the “cases” of two neighboring states (double counted), but who may have been placed within the data at the wrong time of exposure and infection. Early estimates of R0 are made when there are very few infected individuals. Such estimates are very sensitive to errors of observation. Observations placed erroneously too far along in the epidemic will have the effect of erroneously making R0 too large; while those placed erroneously too early will make R0 appear, erroneously, too small.
Because all of the factors involved in R0 keep changing with time, one has to keep collecting timely data for evaluation about effectiveness of strategies. Thus one is always presented with the problem of limited individuals who are pertinent, and then decisions about which individuals should be counted, and exactly where to place them in sequence. At no time does estimating R0 become simple.
Third, because R0 is not a time constant, but rather a dimensionless figure of merit, the pertinent observations for its estimate are of the growth generation to generation — that is, growth of Y in the chain of transmission from person to person. In my state public health officials estimate that more than 60% of the infected can explain where they were infected. However, this estimate has to be tempered with knowledge of how faulty people’s memories are.
One MD has spoken elsewhere about observations, such as the spread through the call center at Daegu, South Korea, which suggest an R0 well below 1.0. However much his number may pertain to the special case of this particular call center, the value of R0 cannot be below 1.0 generally. If it were, the plainly obvious growing epidemic across the U.S. at present would require an utterly improbable set of initial conditions.
Similarly, the large values of R0 (2.0 to 2.6) used by Neil Ferguson, along with estimates of generation duration and other parameters, propelled initial panic. One can tell from the press conferences that Dr. Fauci, Trump’s principal advisor, is still highly influenced by these early estimates.These were guesses, albeit educated ones. Apparently Ferguson is stepping back from these initial estimates. This is just my opinion, but it appears that we, across the Western world, were unprepared to gather the sort of data early to make valuable estimates of R0 at an actionable time — for example rather than daily counts of infections we need counts by generation of spread, and estimates of uncertainty. Estimates of deaths in Britain from 20,000 to 500,000 do nothing to aid in policy prescriptions.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that we will survive this pandemic, but at great cost. A famous quotation seems apropo:
“ If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined.” Phyrric, 275 B.C.
After this crisis has passed we really need to have a sober evaluation of strategies versus outcome, and decide whether we might have done better. We should decide whether our goals were even sensible. Nic Lewis’s contribution is an example of sober analysis; so is Alec Rawls’s. We do not need a second such victory over exponents.
Notes:
[1] Philip Dutre, Thinking and Conscious Machines?, in “A Truly Golden Handbook”, Ed. by Veerle Achten, Geert Bouckaert, Erik Schokkaert, Leuven University Press, 2017.
[2] Dan Fulton, Failure on the Plains, Big Sky Books, Montana State University Press, 1982.
Throughout Fulton’s early chapters quotations refer to the book counts as “arithmetic progressions” when in fact they are geometrical. The book count data came from Robert Strahorn, one time superintendent of the Union Pacific Railroad.
[3] This projection, along with the projections of the Federal Power Commission and National Petroleum Council would be featured in Congressional testimony in May 1972 and in a companion paper in (Chapman, et. al., Science, v.78,p.703-708,1972) as Table 1. While the authors stated that these projections might prove too high, they emphasized that “…to the extent that past population growth rates continue, the projections of Table 1 are supported…”
[4] All electrical consumption data are from EIA spreadsheets.
[5] Martin Nowak, Evolutionary Dynamics, Belknap/Harvard Press, 2006. Nowak’s definition is not exactly like mine but is functionally the same.
[6] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-31--Australia’s very low death rate is due to younger patients, plenty of tests

Right now Australia has one of the lowest death rates from coronavirus in the world .
With 4,561 cases but only 19 deaths , the clumsy Case Fatality Rate is only 0.4 % – lower even than Germany .
While some commentators think that ’ s a reason to ease up it may be partly due to temporary good geographical luck .
Plus winter is coming… 1 .
Australians with Coronavirus are younger ( for the moment ) .
Most infections in Australia came from overseas travel — something the 20 to 70 year olds do a lot of , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t flying on 20 hour long haul trips across the Pacific .
( Last week the most comment source of Australia ’ s cases was the USA , especially Aspen ) .
This week the main source is Europe , and the nation called “ cruise ships ” .
If and when the virus starts to spread among the older cohorts the death rates will rise .
( Unless we figure out that treatment first ) .
Compare the ages groups of patients in Korea and Italy .
Fully 40 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Right now Australia has one of the lowest death rates from coronavirus in the world. With 4,561 cases but only 19 deaths, the clumsy Case Fatality Rate is only 0.4% – lower even than Germany. While some commentators think that’s a reason to ease up it may be partly due to temporary good geographical luck. Plus winter is coming…
1. Australians with Coronavirus are younger (for the moment).
Most infections in Australia came from overseas travel — something the 20 to 70 year olds do a lot of, but apparently the 80+ age group aren’t flying on 20 hour long haul trips across the Pacific. (Last week the most comment source of Australia’s cases was the USA, especially Aspen). This week the main source is Europe, and the nation called “cruise ships”. If and when the virus starts to spread among the older cohorts the death rates will rise. (Unless we figure out that treatment first).
Compare the ages groups of patients in Korea and Italy. Fully 40% of Italian (known) cases are 70+.
Statista — demographics of Italian and South Korean cases
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March 31, 2020 at 12:14PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-31--‘Tequila’ powered biofuels more efficient than corn or sugar

Well , yes and no .
The agave plant produces less fuel per hectare than sugar cane , but needs less water and has other claimed advantages .
But the current low oil price is making all biofuel options look even more expensive than before , plus they are all land-hungry .
– – – The agave plant used to make tequila could be established in semi-arid Australia as an environmentally friendly solution to Australia ’ s transport fuel shortage , a team of researchers at the University of Sydney , University of Exeter and University of Adelaide has found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also help produce ethanol for hand sanitiser , which is in high demand during the COVID-19 pandemic , notes TechXplore .
In an article published this week in the Journal of Cleaner Production , University of Sydney agronomist Associate Professor Daniel Tan with international and Australian colleagues have analysed the potential to produce bioethanol ( biofuel ) from the agave plant , a high-sugar succulent widely grown in Mexico to make the alcoholic drink tequila .
The agave plant is now being grown as a biofuel source on the Atherton Tablelands in Far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it promises some significant advantages over existing sources of bioethanol such as sugarcane and corn , Associate Professor Tan said .
“ Agave is an environmentally friendly crop that we can grow to produce ethanol-based fuels and healthcare products , ” said Associate Professor Tan from the Sydney Institute of Agriculture .
“ It can grow in semi-arid areas without irrigation ; and it does not compete with food crops or put demands on limited water and fertiliser supplies .
Agave is heat and drought tolerant and can survive Australia ’ s hot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research team and led its economic analysis .
Lead author Dr. Xiaoyu Yan from the University of Exeter , who led the lifecycle assessment , said : “ Our analysis highlights the possibilities for bioethanol production from agave grown in semi-arid Australia , causing minimum pressure on food production and water resources .
“ The results suggest that bioethanol derived from agave is superior to that from corn and sugarcane in terms of water consumption and quality , greenhouse gas emissions , as well as ethanol output .
”

Well, yes and no. The agave plant produces less fuel per hectare than sugar cane, but needs less water and has other claimed advantages. But the current low oil price is making all biofuel options look even more expensive than before, plus they are all land-hungry.
– – –
The agave plant used to make tequila could be established in semi-arid Australia as an environmentally friendly solution to Australia’s transport fuel shortage, a team of researchers at the University of Sydney, University of Exeter and University of Adelaide has found.
The efficient, low-water process could also help produce ethanol for hand sanitiser, which is in high demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, notes TechXplore.
In an article published this week in the Journal of Cleaner Production, University of Sydney agronomist Associate Professor Daniel Tan with international and Australian colleagues have analysed the potential to produce bioethanol (biofuel) from the agave plant, a high-sugar succulent widely grown in Mexico to make the alcoholic drink tequila.
The agave plant is now being grown as a biofuel source on the Atherton Tablelands in Far North Queensland by MSF Sugar, and it promises some significant advantages over existing sources of bioethanol such as sugarcane and corn, Associate Professor Tan said.
“Agave is an environmentally friendly crop that we can grow to produce ethanol-based fuels and healthcare products,” said Associate Professor Tan from the Sydney Institute of Agriculture.
“It can grow in semi-arid areas without irrigation; and it does not compete with food crops or put demands on limited water and fertiliser supplies. Agave is heat and drought tolerant and can survive Australia’s hot summers.”
Associate Professor Tan assembled the research team and led its economic analysis.
Lead author Dr. Xiaoyu Yan from the University of Exeter, who led the lifecycle assessment, said: “Our analysis highlights the possibilities for bioethanol production from agave grown in semi-arid Australia, causing minimum pressure on food production and water resources.
“The results suggest that bioethanol derived from agave is superior to that from corn and sugarcane in terms of water consumption and quality, greenhouse gas emissions, as well as ethanol output.”
Full report here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
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March 31, 2020 at 11:57AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-31--LOTS of volcanic activity worldwide – Popocatépetl, Merapi, Ibu, Dukono, Reventador, Sangay…

Makes me wonder how much underwater volcanic activity is occurring .
Warmer seas and cooler skies .
A deadly combination @ @ @ @ @ Debell for this link The post LOTS of volcanic activity worldwide – Popocatépetl , Merapi @ @ @ @ @ Reventador , Sangay… appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Makes me wonder how much underwater volcanic activity is occurring. Warmer seas and cooler skies. A deadly combination.
__________
Currently active:
Ibu (Halmahera, Indonesia): VA TO 5200FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
Merapi (Central Java, Indonesia): ERUPTION OBSERVED ON WEBCAM OBS VA DTG:28/1235Z
Dukono (Halmahera): Explosive activity continues. Ash plume to estimated 7000 ft (2100 m) altitude.
Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): Explosive activity continues. Ash plume to estimated 22000 ft (6700 m) altitude.
Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia): Explosive activity continues. Ash plume to estimated 22000 ft (6700 m) altitude.
Sangay (Ecuador): (28 Mar) Explosive activity continues. Ash plume to estimated 22000 ft (6700 m) altitude.
Reventador (Ecuador): Explosive activity continues. Ash plume to estimated 14000 ft (4300 m) altitude.
Sabancaya (Peru): Explosive activity continues. Ash plume to estimated 24000 ft (7300 m) altitude.
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcano-activity/news/100765/Volcanic-activity-worldwide-28-Mar-2020-Popocatepetl-volcano-Merapi-Ibu-Dukono-Reventador-San.html
Thanks to Perry Debell for this link
The post LOTS of volcanic activity worldwide – Popocatépetl, Merapi, Ibu, Dukono, Reventador, Sangay… appeared first on Ice Age Now.
via Ice Age Now
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March 31, 2020 at 11:41AM


Beaches Not Disappearing

John Tamny writes at Real Clear Markets ‘ Studies ’ Indicate Disappearing Beaches .
Markets Think Studies Idiotic .
Excerpts in italics with my bolds and images .
As USA Today recently reported , a new study from the European Union ’ s Joint Research Center warns that a global catastrophe looms due to “ the near-extinction of almost half of the world ’ s sandy beaches by the end of the century.
” Hmmmm .
Really ?
It seems the only individuals who never get the message about the “ near-extinction ” of beaches are those who actually live @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who yearn to live at beaches .
Stop and think about it .
Presumably the desirability of Malibu , Laguna , La Jolla , the Hamptons , Martha ’ s Vineyard , Newport ( RI ) , Ibiza , St. Tropez and other glamorous coastal locales has something to do with these destinations existing essentially on the beach .
In other words , land and the housing that sits on said land is quite bit more valuable in Malibu than it is in the San Fernando Valley that is just over the hill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ near the beach , while San Fernando Valley is , for lack of a better word , inland .
Though houses are expensive in parts of the San Fernando Valley , they don ’ t fetch anywhere near the amount that “ shacks ” in Malibu do .
To the halfway awake , the previous sentence is a statement of the obvious .
Those of us in possession of passably sound mind understand that property on the beach or near the beach is quite a bit more desirable than cities and towns far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s true in California is true around the world .
Housing near the water is almost monolithically dear relative to what ’ s inland from the water .
It ’ s almost a waste of words to write down what is so obvious .
Yet it ’ s worth writing down in consideration of all the alarmism on the part of climate scientists ( and those who aim to mimic them ) , and who claim that so much of the world ’ s beaches are set to disappear thanks to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tautology that ’ s climate change .
Don ’ t you get it readers , “ studies ” show us that the world ’ s beaches are set to disappear .
Ok , but if so , does anyone seriously think Meyer could have fetched so much for his Malibu compound , and does anyone think beach real estate globally would be so eye-wateringly expensive if the world ’ s beaches were set to disappear ?
Implicit in this dour , alarmist view is that markets are incredibly dense ; that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see what climate scientists see all-too-clearly .
To the above , some will say the rich are too rich to care .
On its face the previous assertion is doubtful , plus haven ’ t the perpetually alarmed and offended told us for decades that the rich are “ greedy ” ?
If so , why would they place so much of their wealth in harm ’ s way ?
And what about insurance companies .
Why would they insure properties that are set to be washed away ?
And again , why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on his Malibu house ; one whose transfer in the $ 5 million range was once the stuff of Hollywood legend ?
More broadly , all the hand wringing by the climate alarmists must be considered in terms of what the world is enduring right now .
Getting into specifics , politicans around the world are overseeing the shutdown of the global economy based on a theory that millions will die if they get to close to one another .
The economic agony these actions have brought about is and will be massively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses shuttered , and dreams dashed .
Scary about all this is that the global warming true believers view economic growth as a major threat to the planet , and similarly seek economic shutdown by political force to save the planet .
Readers might keep this in mind in consideration of how they feel now , and how they might feel in the future if the warming alarmists get their way .
Ideally before these climate religionists get the chance to commit major damage , the market signals provided by people like Ron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , just once it would be great for the climate alarmists in our midst to answer why , if beaches are allegedly disappearing , beach houses are so expensive .
John Tamny is editor of RealClearMarkets , Vice President at FreedomWorks , and a senior economic adviser to Toreador Research and Trading ( www.trtadvisors.com ) .
His new book is titled They ’ re Both Wrong : A Policy Guide for America ’ s Frustrated Independent Thinkers .
Other books by Tamny include The End of Work , about the exciting growth of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Who Needs the Fed ?
and Popular Economics .
He can be reached at jtamny @ realclearmarkets.com .
For an analysis comparing model projections with tidal guage observations see : USCS Warnings of Coastal Floodings

John Tamny writes at Real Clear Markets ‘Studies’ Indicate Disappearing Beaches. Markets Think Studies Idiotic. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and images.
As USA Today recently reported, a new study from the European Union’s Joint Research Center warns that a global catastrophe looms due to “the near-extinction of almost half of the world’s sandy beaches by the end of the century.” Hmmmm. Really?
It seems the only individuals who never get the message about the “near-extinction” of beaches are those who actually live at those beaches, along with those who yearn to live at beaches. Stop and think about it.
Presumably the desirability of Malibu, Laguna, La Jolla, the Hamptons, Martha’s Vineyard, Newport (RI), Ibiza, St. Tropez and other glamorous coastal locales has something to do with these destinations existing essentially on the beach. In other words, land and the housing that sits on said land is quite bit more valuable in Malibu than it is in the San Fernando Valley that is just over the hill from Malibu. Malibu is on or near the beach, while San Fernando Valley is, for lack of a better word, inland.
Though houses are expensive in parts of the San Fernando Valley, they don’t fetch anywhere near the amount that “shacks” in Malibu do. To the halfway awake, the previous sentence is a statement of the obvious.
Those of us in possession of passably sound mind understand that property on the beach or near the beach is quite a bit more desirable than cities and towns far from it.
Crucial is that what’s true in California is true around the world. Housing near the water is almost monolithically dear relative to what’s inland from the water. It’s almost a waste of words to write down what is so obvious.
Yet it’s worth writing down in consideration of all the alarmism on the part of climate scientists (and those who aim to mimic them), and who claim that so much of the world’s beaches are set to disappear thanks to the theory that is global warming, or the tautology that’s climate change. Don’t you get it readers, “studies” show us that the world’s beaches are set to disappear.
Ok, but if so, does anyone seriously think Meyer could have fetched so much for his Malibu compound, and does anyone think beach real estate globally would be so eye-wateringly expensive if the world’s beaches were set to disappear? Implicit in this dour, alarmist view is that markets are incredibly dense; that the world’s richest don’t see what climate scientists see all-too-clearly.
To the above, some will say the rich are too rich to care. On its face the previous assertion is doubtful, plus haven’t the perpetually alarmed and offended told us for decades that the rich are “greedy”? If so, why would they place so much of their wealth in harm’s way? And what about insurance companies. Why would they insure properties that are set to be washed away? And again, why did Meyer enjoy such an impressive return on his Malibu house; one whose transfer in the $5 million range was once the stuff of Hollywood legend?
More broadly, all the hand wringing by the climate alarmists must be considered in terms of what the world is enduring right now.
Getting into specifics, politicans around the world are overseeing the shutdown of the global economy based on a theory that millions will die if they get to close to one another. The economic agony these actions have brought about is and will be massively cruel in terms of jobs lost, businesses shuttered, and dreams dashed. Scary about all this is that the global warming true believers view economic growth as a major threat to the planet, and similarly seek economic shutdown by political force to save the planet.
Readers might keep this in mind in consideration of how they feel now, and how they might feel in the future if the warming alarmists get their way.
Ideally before these climate religionists get the chance to commit major damage, the market signals provided by people like Ron Meyer will gain needed attention. Indeed, just once it would be great for the climate alarmists in our midst to answer why, if beaches are allegedly disappearing, beach houses are so expensive.
John Tamny is editor of RealClearMarkets, Vice President at FreedomWorks, and a senior economic adviser to Toreador Research and Trading (www.trtadvisors.com). His new book is titled They’re Both Wrong: A Policy Guide for America’s Frustrated Independent Thinkers. Other books by Tamny include The End of Work, about the exciting growth of jobs more and more of us love, Who Needs the Fed? and Popular Economics. He can be reached at jtamny@realclearmarkets.com.
For an analysis comparing model projections with tidal guage observations see:
USCS Warnings of Coastal Floodings
via Science Matters
https://ift.tt/3bFb1Qr
March 31, 2020 at 11:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--All-Electric Tornadoes Now A Reality

All-Electric Tornadoes Now A Reality

The RAF have been secretly developing all-electric Tornadoes for the last two years .
The big problem , as with @ @ @ @ @ the limited range , but this has now seemingly been overcome .
An eagle eyed @ @ @ @ @ of a KFC135 loaded with 3,756 Tesla Powerwall batteries over RAF Marham carrying out the @ @ @ @ @ specially-designed USB cables .
Announcing the successful trial , Air Commodore A M P Watt @ @ @ @ @ Sometimes the Tornadoes had to fly upside down to plug the USBs in .
via @ @ @ @ @ KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
The RAF have been secretly developing all-electric Tornadoes for the last two years. The big problem, as with electric cars, has been the limited range, but this has now seemingly been overcome.
An eagle eyed observer has taken this picture of a KFC135 loaded with 3,756 Tesla Powerwall batteries over RAF Marham carrying out the first In-the-Air recharge mission via specially-designed USB cables.
Announcing the successful trial, Air Commodore A M P Watt reported only one problem. Sometimes the Tornadoes had to fly upside down to plug the USBs in.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
https://ift.tt/3bFEV77
April 1, 2020 at 05:30AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Hubble Finds Best Evidence for Elusive Mid-Sized Black Hole

Astronomers have found the best evidence for the perpetrator of a cosmic homicide : a black hole of an elusive class known as “ intermediate-mass , ” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward star that passed too close .
Weighing in at about 50,000 times the mass of our Sun , the black hole is smaller than the supermassive black holes ( at millions or billions of solar masses ) that lie at the cores of large galaxies , but larger than stellar-mass black holes formed by the collapse of a massive star .
These so-called intermediate-mass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-sought “ missing link ” in black hole evolution .
Though there have been a few other IMBH candidates , researchers consider these new observations the strongest evidence yet for mid-sized black holes in the universe .
It took the combined power of two X-ray observatories and the keen vision of NASA ’ s Hubble Space Telescope to nail down the cosmic beast .
Astronomers have found the best evidence for a black hole of an elusive class known as “ intermediate-mass , ” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exciting discovery opens the door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark , waiting to be given away by a star passing too close .
Download this video in HD formats from NASA Goddard ’ s Scientific Visualization Studio “ Intermediate-mass black holes are very elusive objects , and so it is critical to carefully consider and rule out alternative explanations for each candidate .
That is what Hubble has allowed us to do for our candidate , ” said Dacheng Lin of the University of New Hampshire , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ results are published on March 31 , 2020 , in The Astrophysical Journal Letters .
The story of the discovery reads like a Sherlock Holmes story , involving the meticulous step-by-step case-building necessary to catch the culprit .
Lin and his team used Hubble to follow up on leads from NASA ’ s Chandra X-ray Observatory and ESA ’ s ( the European Space Agency ) X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission ( XMM-Newton ) .
In 2006 these satellites detected a powerful flare of X-rays , but they could not determine whether it originated from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Researchers attributed it to a star being torn apart after coming too close to a gravitationally powerful compact object , like a black hole .
Surprisingly , the X-ray source , named 3XMM J215022.4−055108 , was not located in a galaxy ’ s center , where massive black holes normally would reside .
This raised hopes that an IMBH was the culprit , but first another possible source of the X-ray flare had to be ruled out : a neutron star in our own Milky Way galaxy , cooling off after being heated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stars are the crushed remnants of an exploded star .
Hubble was pointed at the X-ray source to resolve its precise location .
Deep , high-resolution imaging provides strong evidence that the X-rays emanated not from an isolated source in our galaxy , but instead in a distant , dense star cluster on the outskirts of another galaxy — just the type of place astronomers expected to find an IMBH .
Previous Hubble research has shown that the mass of a black hole in the center of a galaxy is proportional to that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In other words , the more massive the galaxy , the more massive its black hole .
Therefore , the star cluster that is home to 3XMM J215022.4−055108 may be the stripped-down core of a lower-mass dwarf galaxy that has been gravitationally and tidally disrupted by its close interactions with its current larger galaxy host .
IMBHs have been particularly difficult to find because they are smaller and less active than supermassive black holes ; they do not have readily available sources of fuel , nor as strong a gravitational pull to draw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce telltale X-ray glows .
Astronomers essentially have to catch an IMBH red-handed in the act of gobbling up a star .
Lin and his colleagues combed through the XMM-Newton data archive , searching hundreds of thousands of observations to find one IMBH candidate .
The X-ray glow from the shredded star allowed astronomers to estimate the black hole ’ s mass of 50,000 solar masses .
The mass of the IMBH was estimated based on both X-ray luminosity and the spectral shape .
“ This is much more reliable than using X-ray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous IMBH candidates , ” said Lin .
“ The reason why we can use the spectral fits to estimate the IMBH mass for our object is that its spectral evolution showed that it has been in the thermal spectral state , a state commonly seen and well understood in accreting stellar-mass black holes.
” This object isn ’ t the first to be considered a likely candidate for an intermediate-mass black hole .
In 2009 Hubble teamed up with NASA ’ s Swift observatory and ESA ’ s XMM-Newton to identify what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HLX-1 , located towards the edge of the galaxy ESO 243-49 .
It too is in the center of a young , massive cluster of blue stars that may be a stripped-down dwarf galaxy core .
The X-rays come from a hot accretion disk around the black hole .
“ The main difference is that our object is tearing a star apart , providing strong evidence that it is a massive black hole , instead of a stellar-mass black hole as people often worry about for previous candidates including HLX-1 , ” Lin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark , waiting to be given away by a star passing too close .
Lin plans to continue his meticulous detective work , using the methods his team has proved successful .
Many questions remain to be answered .
Does a supermassive black hole grow from an IMBH ?
How do IMBHs themselves form ?
Are dense star clusters their favored home ?
The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA ( European Space Agency ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Center in Greenbelt , Maryland , manages the telescope .
The Space Telescope Science Institute ( STScI ) in Baltimore , Maryland , conducts Hubble science operations .
STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington , D.C .
Banner image : This illustration depicts a cosmic homicide in action .
A wayward star is being shredded by the intense gravitational pull of a black hole that contains tens of thousands of solar masses .
The stellar remains are forming an accretion disk around the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the super-heated gas disk alerted astronomers to the black hole ’ s location ; otherwise it lurked unknown in the dark .
The elusive object is classified as an intermediate mass black hole ( IMBH ) , as it is much less massive than the monster black holes that dwell in the centers of galaxies .
Therefore , IMBHs are mostly quiescent because they do not pull in as much material , and are hard to find .
Hubble observations provide evidence that the IMBH dwells inside a dense star cluster .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ core of a dwarf galaxy .
Credit : NASA , ESA and D. Player ( STScI )

From NASA
March 31, 2020
Astronomers have found the best evidence for the perpetrator of a cosmic homicide: a black hole of an elusive class known as “intermediate-mass,” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward star that passed too close.
Weighing in at about 50,000 times the mass of our Sun, the black hole is smaller than the supermassive black holes (at millions or billions of solar masses) that lie at the cores of large galaxies, but larger than stellar-mass black holes formed by the collapse of a massive star.
These so-called intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) are a long-sought “missing link” in black hole evolution. Though there have been a few other IMBH candidates, researchers consider these new observations the strongest evidence yet for mid-sized black holes in the universe.
It took the combined power of two X-ray observatories and the keen vision of NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope to nail down the cosmic beast.
Astronomers have found the best evidence for a black hole of an elusive class known as “intermediate-mass,” which betrayed its existence by tearing apart a wayward star that passed too close. This exciting discovery opens the door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark, waiting to be given away by a star passing too close.
Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
Download this video in HD formats from NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio
“Intermediate-mass black holes are very elusive objects, and so it is critical to carefully consider and rule out alternative explanations for each candidate. That is what Hubble has allowed us to do for our candidate,” said Dacheng Lin of the University of New Hampshire, principal investigator of the study. The results are published on March 31, 2020, in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The story of the discovery reads like a Sherlock Holmes story, involving the meticulous step-by-step case-building necessary to catch the culprit.
Lin and his team used Hubble to follow up on leads from NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory and ESA’s (the European Space Agency) X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission (XMM-Newton). In 2006 these satellites detected a powerful flare of X-rays, but they could not determine whether it originated from inside or outside of our galaxy. Researchers attributed it to a star being torn apart after coming too close to a gravitationally powerful compact object, like a black hole.
Surprisingly, the X-ray source, named 3XMM J215022.4−055108, was not located in a galaxy’s center, where massive black holes normally would reside. This raised hopes that an IMBH was the culprit, but first another possible source of the X-ray flare had to be ruled out: a neutron star in our own Milky Way galaxy, cooling off after being heated to a very high temperature. Neutron stars are the crushed remnants of an exploded star.
Hubble was pointed at the X-ray source to resolve its precise location. Deep, high-resolution imaging provides strong evidence that the X-rays emanated not from an isolated source in our galaxy, but instead in a distant, dense star cluster on the outskirts of another galaxy — just the type of place astronomers expected to find an IMBH. Previous Hubble research has shown that the mass of a black hole in the center of a galaxy is proportional to that host galaxy’s central bulge. In other words, the more massive the galaxy, the more massive its black hole. Therefore, the star cluster that is home to 3XMM J215022.4−055108 may be the stripped-down core of a lower-mass dwarf galaxy that has been gravitationally and tidally disrupted by its close interactions with its current larger galaxy host.
IMBHs have been particularly difficult to find because they are smaller and less active than supermassive black holes; they do not have readily available sources of fuel, nor as strong a gravitational pull to draw stars and other cosmic material which would produce telltale X-ray glows. Astronomers essentially have to catch an IMBH red-handed in the act of gobbling up a star. Lin and his colleagues combed through the XMM-Newton data archive, searching hundreds of thousands of observations to find one IMBH candidate.
The X-ray glow from the shredded star allowed astronomers to estimate the black hole’s mass of 50,000 solar masses. The mass of the IMBH was estimated based on both X-ray luminosity and the spectral shape. “This is much more reliable than using X-ray luminosity alone as typically done before for previous IMBH candidates,” said Lin. “The reason why we can use the spectral fits to estimate the IMBH mass for our object is that its spectral evolution showed that it has been in the thermal spectral state, a state commonly seen and well understood in accreting stellar-mass black holes.”
This object isn’t the first to be considered a likely candidate for an intermediate-mass black hole. In 2009 Hubble teamed up with NASA’s Swift observatory and ESA’s XMM-Newton to identify what is interpreted as an IMBH, called HLX-1, located towards the edge of the galaxy ESO 243-49. It too is in the center of a young, massive cluster of blue stars that may be a stripped-down dwarf galaxy core. The X-rays come from a hot accretion disk around the black hole. “The main difference is that our object is tearing a star apart, providing strong evidence that it is a massive black hole, instead of a stellar-mass black hole as people often worry about for previous candidates including HLX-1,” Lin said.
Finding this IMBH opens the door to the possibility of many more lurking undetected in the dark, waiting to be given away by a star passing too close. Lin plans to continue his meticulous detective work, using the methods his team has proved successful. Many questions remain to be answered. Does a supermassive black hole grow from an IMBH? How do IMBHs themselves form? Are dense star clusters their favored home?
The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope. The Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Baltimore, Maryland, conducts Hubble science operations. STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington, D.C.
Banner image: This illustration depicts a cosmic homicide in action. A wayward star is being shredded by the intense gravitational pull of a black hole that contains tens of thousands of solar masses. The stellar remains are forming an accretion disk around the black hole. Flares of X-ray light from the super-heated gas disk alerted astronomers to the black hole’s location; otherwise it lurked unknown in the dark. The elusive object is classified as an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH), as it is much less massive than the monster black holes that dwell in the centers of galaxies. Therefore, IMBHs are mostly quiescent because they do not pull in as much material, and are hard to find. Hubble observations provide evidence that the IMBH dwells inside a dense star cluster. The cluster itself may be the stripped-down core of a dwarf galaxy. Credit: NASA, ESA and D. Player (STScI)


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Studies Claim Beaches Are Disappearing. Markets Think Studies Are Idiotic

It would be great for the climate alarmists in our midst to answer why , if beaches are allegedly disappearing , beach houses are so expensive .
In the late 1990s , and after Michael Ovitz and Ron Meyer had both left CAA ( the superagency that they created , and ran together ) respectively for Disney and Universal , the two Hollywood moguls got together .
At this point they were pretty much estranged , there was routine backtalk from both about one another , but in Ovitz ’ s recounting in his endlessly interesting memoir Who Is Michael @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the estrangement was “ tougher on me than him.
” They had formerly talked at least 30 times a day during the CAA years , but since then communication had all but dried up .
Ovitz and Meyer met up only for Ovitz to suggest that they start up a management or production company together .
Meyer didn ’ t bite as his long tenure at Universal indicates , but he did relay to Ovitz his interest in Motown founder Berry Gordy ’ s Malibu house .
The only hold-up for Meyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ telling him that at $ 5.5 million , Gordy ’ s ask was too much .
Ovitz added in his memoir that he too had long desired Gordy ’ s house , and “ thinking that Ron was priced out , ” he bought it .
When Meyer found out , he was incensed .
He was the one who ’ d told Ovitz about Gordy ’ s house being on the market , he called Ovitz to express his anger , and per Ovitz “ that was our last conversation for years.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as somewhat innocent in the matter , time has a way of softening hardened feelings .
He admits now that there was some anger within him about what he heard Meyer was telling others about him .
Better yet , a few weeks after their difficult phone call Ovitz sold the property to Meyer in a transaction brokered by their mutual business manager .
The all-too-Hollywood spat between Ovitz and Meyer rates mention for two reasons .
First is that in 2019 news accounts indicated that Meyer was in contract to sell the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value of the house had gone up quite a bit since the late ‘ 90s when Meyer deemed $ 5.5 million a bit pricey .
In his case , he sold the house for somewhere in the range of $ 120 million to a Silicon Valley tech entrepreneur .
It ’ s quite a return for the entertainment mogul , and though Ovitz has since moved his genius to venture capital investing , one wonders if he wonders if he was perhaps too easy on Meyer way back when… But that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s $ 100 million+ sale is notable is in consideration of continued alarmism on the part of climate scientists and researchers with regard to vanishing shorelines around the world .
As USA Today recently reported , a new study from the European Union ’ s Joint Research Center warns that a global catastrophe looms due to “ the near-extinction of almost half of the world ’ s sandy beaches by the end of the century.
” Hmmmm .
Really ?
It seems the only individuals who never get the message about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who actually live at those beaches , along with those who yearn to live at beaches .
Stop and think about it .
Presumably the desirability of Malibu , Laguna , La Jolla , the Hamptons , Martha ’ s Vineyard , Newport ( RI ) , Ibiza , St. Tropez and other glamorous coastal locales has something to do with these destinations existing essentially on the beach .
In other words , land and the housing that sits on said land is quite bit more valuable in Malibu than it is in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the hill from Malibu .
Malibu is on or near the beach , while San Fernando Valley is , for lack of a better word , inland .
Though houses are expensive in parts of the San Fernando Valley , they don ’ t fetch anywhere near the amount that “ shacks ” in Malibu do .
To the halfway awake , the previous sentence is a statement of the obvious .
Those of us in possession of passably sound mind understand that property on the beach or near the beach is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and towns far from it .
Crucial is that what ’ s true in California is true around the world .
Housing near the water is almost monolithically dear relative to what ’ s inland from the water .
It ’ s almost a waste of words to write down what is so obvious .
Yet it ’ s worth writing down in consideration of all the alarmism on the part of climate scientists ( and those who aim to mimic them ) , and who claim that so much of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thanks to global warming , or the tautology that ’ s climate change .
Don ’ t you get it readers , “ studies ” show us that the world ’ s beaches are set to disappear .
Ok , but if so , does anyone seriously think Meyer could have fetched so much for his Malibu compound , and does anyone think beach real estate globally would be so eye-wateringly expensive if the world ’ s beaches were set to disappear ?
Implicit in this dour , alarmist view is that markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s richest don ’ t see what climate scientists see all-too-clearly .
To the above , some will say the rich are too rich to care .
On its face the previous assertion is doubtful , plus haven ’ t the perpetually alarmed and offended told us for decades that the rich are “ greedy ” ?
If so , why would they place so much of their wealth in harm ’ s way ?
And what about insurance companies .
Why would they insure properties that are set to be washed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Meyer enjoy such an impressive return on his Malibu house ; one whose transfer in the $ 5 million range was once the stuff of Hollywood legend ?
More broadly , all the hand wringing by the climate alarmists must be considered in terms of what the world is enduring right now .
Getting into specifics , politicans around the world are overseeing the shutdown of the global economy based on a theory that millions will die if they get to close to one another .
The economic agony these actions have brought @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in terms of jobs lost , businesses shuttered , and dreams dashed .
Scary about all this is that the global warming true believers view economic growth as a major threat to the planet , and similarly seek economic shutdown by political force to save the planet .
Readers might keep this in mind in consideration of how they feel now , and how they might feel in the future if the warming alarmists get their way .
The post Studies Claim Beaches Are Disappearing .
Markets Think Studies Are Idiotic appeared first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GWPF ) .

It would be great for the climate alarmists in our midst to answer why, if beaches are allegedly disappearing, beach houses are so expensive.
In the late 1990s, and after Michael Ovitz and Ron Meyer had both left CAA (the superagency that they created, and ran together) respectively for Disney and Universal, the two Hollywood moguls got together. At this point they were pretty much estranged, there was routine backtalk from both about one another, but in Ovitz’s recounting in his endlessly interesting memoir Who Is Michael Ovitz?, the Hollywood legend acknowledged that the estrangement was “tougher on me than him.” They had formerly talked at least 30 times a day during the CAA years, but since then communication had all but dried up.
Ovitz and Meyer met up only for Ovitz to suggest that they start up a management or production company together. Meyer didn’t bite as his long tenure at Universal indicates, but he did relay to Ovitz his interest in Motown founder Berry Gordy’s Malibu house. The only hold-up for Meyer was the price. Ovitz recalls Meyer telling him that at $5.5 million, Gordy’s ask was too much. Ovitz added in his memoir that he too had long desired Gordy’s house, and “thinking that Ron was priced out,” he bought it. When Meyer found out, he was incensed. He was the one who’d told Ovitz about Gordy’s house being on the market, he called Ovitz to express his anger, and per Ovitz “that was our last conversation for years.”
So while Ovitz paints his actions as somewhat innocent in the matter, time has a way of softening hardened feelings. He admits now that there was some anger within him about what he heard Meyer was telling others about him. Better yet, a few weeks after their difficult phone call Ovitz sold the property to Meyer in a transaction brokered by their mutual business manager.
The all-too-Hollywood spat between Ovitz and Meyer rates mention for two reasons. First is that in 2019 news accounts indicated that Meyer was in contract to sell the house. Notable is that the market value of the house had gone up quite a bit since the late ‘90s when Meyer deemed $5.5 million a bit pricey. In his case, he sold the house for somewhere in the range of $120 million to a Silicon Valley tech entrepreneur. It’s quite a return for the entertainment mogul, and though Ovitz has since moved his genius to venture capital investing, one wonders if he wonders if he was perhaps too easy on Meyer way back when…
But that’s a digression. The other reason Meyer’s $100 million+ sale is notable is in consideration of continued alarmism on the part of climate scientists and researchers with regard to vanishing shorelines around the world.
As USA Today recently reported, a new study from the European Union’s Joint Research Center warns that a global catastrophe looms due to “the near-extinction of almost half of the world’s sandy beaches by the end of the century.” Hmmmm. Really?
It seems the only individuals who never get the message about the “near-extinction” of beaches are those who actually live at those beaches, along with those who yearn to live at beaches. Stop and think about it.
Presumably the desirability of Malibu, Laguna, La Jolla, the Hamptons, Martha’s Vineyard, Newport (RI), Ibiza, St. Tropez and other glamorous coastal locales has something to do with these destinations existing essentially on the beach. In other words, land and the housing that sits on said land is quite bit more valuable in Malibu than it is in the San Fernando Valley that is just over the hill from Malibu. Malibu is on or near the beach, while San Fernando Valley is, for lack of a better word, inland.
Though houses are expensive in parts of the San Fernando Valley, they don’t fetch anywhere near the amount that “shacks” in Malibu do. To the halfway awake, the previous sentence is a statement of the obvious. Those of us in possession of passably sound mind understand that property on the beach or near the beach is quite a bit more desirable than cities and towns far from it.
Crucial is that what’s true in California is true around the world. Housing near the water is almost monolithically dear relative to what’s inland from the water. It’s almost a waste of words to write down what is so obvious.
Yet it’s worth writing down in consideration of all the alarmism on the part of climate scientists (and those who aim to mimic them), and who claim that so much of the world’s beaches are set to disappear thanks to global warming, or the tautology that’s climate change. Don’t you get it readers, “studies” show us that the world’s beaches are set to disappear.
Ok, but if so, does anyone seriously think Meyer could have fetched so much for his Malibu compound, and does anyone think beach real estate globally would be so eye-wateringly expensive if the world’s beaches were set to disappear? Implicit in this dour, alarmist view is that markets are incredibly dense; that the world’s richest don’t see what climate scientists see all-too-clearly.
To the above, some will say the rich are too rich to care. On its face the previous assertion is doubtful, plus haven’t the perpetually alarmed and offended told us for decades that the rich are “greedy”? If so, why would they place so much of their wealth in harm’s way? And what about insurance companies. Why would they insure properties that are set to be washed away? And again, why did Meyer enjoy such an impressive return on his Malibu house; one whose transfer in the $5 million range was once the stuff of Hollywood legend?
More broadly, all the hand wringing by the climate alarmists must be considered in terms of what the world is enduring right now. Getting into specifics, politicans around the world are overseeing the shutdown of the global economy based on a theory that millions will die if they get to close to one another. The economic agony these actions have brought about is and will be massively cruel in terms of jobs lost, businesses shuttered, and dreams dashed. Scary about all this is that the global warming true believers view economic growth as a major threat to the planet, and similarly seek economic shutdown by political force to save the planet. Readers might keep this in mind in consideration of how they feel now, and how they might feel in the future if the warming alarmists get their way.
The post Studies Claim Beaches Are Disappearing. Markets Think Studies Are Idiotic appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 1, 2020 at 04:06AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Despite Existential Crisis, EU Bureaucrats Press On With 2030 Climate Agenda

( Reuters ) – The EU executive kick-started its plan to set a tougher 2030 emissions target on Tuesday , a move that could help maintain the bloc ’ s focus on climate change despite pressure to soften its green ambitions in response to the coronavirus pandemic .
The European Commission began a public consultation to gather views until June 23 on its options to tighten the EU ’ s 2030 target to a 50 % or 55 % cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels , from the current 40 % .
The new target , to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Commission ’ s revisions of a suite of EU policies even as it also focuses on a post-coronavirus economic recovery .
The Commission wants to revise EU regulations on the carbon market , renewable energy and energy efficiency by June 2021 as part of its “ Green Deal ” vision to decarbonise the bloc ’ s economy by 2050 .
The EU executive has said the coronavirus pandemic does not affect this aim , and suggested it will heed calls from campaigners and investors that economic recovery measures should also accelerate the low-carbon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Green Deal and digitalisation are two central elements of any “ intelligent recovery ” .
Poland ’ s government has warned the virus fallout will make climate targets tougher to achieve , while the Czech Republic has called on Brussels to drop its Green Deal .
A group of 37 members of the 705-seat European Parliament asked the three main EU institutions on Monday to postpone new Green Deal legislation and instead focus on agreeing the bloc ’ s next multi-year budget to help EU members recover .
The post Despite Existential Crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Climate Agenda appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

(Reuters) – The EU executive kick-started its plan to set a tougher 2030 emissions target on Tuesday, a move that could help maintain the bloc’s focus on climate change despite pressure to soften its green ambitions in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
FILE PHOTO: European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans speaks with French Minister for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition Elisabeth Borne before meeting with EU environment ministers in Brussels, Belgium, March 5, 2020. REUTERS/Johanna Geron
The European Commission began a public consultation to gather views until June 23 on its options to tighten the EU’s 2030 target to a 50% or 55% cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels, from the current 40%.
The new target, to be proposed in September, will guide the Commission’s revisions of a suite of EU policies even as it also focuses on a post-coronavirus economic recovery.
The Commission wants to revise EU regulations on the carbon market, renewable energy and energy efficiency by June 2021 as part of its “Green Deal” vision to decarbonise the bloc’s economy by 2050.
The EU executive has said the coronavirus pandemic does not affect this aim, and suggested it will heed calls from campaigners and investors that economic recovery measures should also accelerate the low-carbon transition.
The Commission has said its Green Deal and digitalisation are two central elements of any “intelligent recovery”.
Poland’s government has warned the virus fallout will make climate targets tougher to achieve, while the Czech Republic has called on Brussels to drop its Green Deal.
A group of 37 members of the 705-seat European Parliament asked the three main EU institutions on Monday to postpone new Green Deal legislation and instead focus on agreeing the bloc’s next multi-year budget to help EU members recover.
The post Despite Existential Crisis, EU Bureaucrats Press On With 2030 Climate Agenda appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 1, 2020 at 02:41AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--S-O-S: If COVID-19 Doesn’t Kill Your Granny, Energy Poverty Will

Enduring frigid weather in unheated homes is one of the biggest killers of the elderly .
Thanks to an obsession @ @ @ @ @ and expensive wind and solar , the poor and vulnerable drop like flies every winter @ @ @ @ @ of households are suffering energy poverty in what was once the World Power is [ @ @

Enduring frigid weather in unheated homes is one of the biggest killers of the elderly. Thanks to an obsession with heavily subsidised, unreliable and expensive wind and solar, the poor and vulnerable drop like flies every winter. That hundreds of thousands of households are suffering energy poverty in what was once the World Power is […]
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April 1, 2020 at 01:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--UK GOVERNMENT ISSUES NEW TRANSPORT PLAN

UK GOVERNMENT ISSUES NEW TRANSPORT PLAN

Grant Shapps , the transport secretary , espouses a vision where `` we will use our cars less and be @ @ @ @ @ convenient , cost-effective and coherent public transport network . ''
I wonder how he proposes @ @ @ @ @

This article alerts us to the UK government’s new transport plan which has just been published
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, espouses a vision where "we will use our cars less and be able to rely on a convenient, cost-effective and coherent public transport network." I wonder how he proposes to bring this about?


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-01--Business Cronyism as Plunder: Bastiat Revisited

A major subject at MasterResource is cronyism in the wind-power , solar-power , ethanol , battery , carbon capture and storage , and electric-vehicle industries .
To this end , timeless wisdom pertaining to special government favor to politically adept businesses , aka corporate welfare , is worth repeating .
With the current Pandemic , notice how not only the government-dependent wind and solar industries but also conventional energies are lined up trying to get their share of government largess .
French economist Frédéric Bastiat ( 1801–1850 ) authored books and essays on political economy , the most influential of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Law .
Classical-liberal Sheldon Richman summarized the genius and flair of Bastiat : Bastiat marshaled logic , clarity , and exuberant wit in the cause of understanding society , prosperity , and liberty .
In a series of brief essays and pamphlets , and a treatise on political economy , Bastiat taught , contra Rousseau , that there is a natural harmonious order to the social world , an order that emanates from the free exchange between human beings driven to satisfy unlimited wants with limited resources .
The result is a steady @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Interference with that freedom , and with its corollaries , property and competition , he wrote , leaves people poorer as well as oppressed .
This is so because interference bars individuals from the creative action they otherwise would have engaged in .
The fruits of the creativity thus forgone are “ what is not seen ” in any act of intervention .
“ … legal plunder can be committed in an infinite number of ways .
Thus we have an infinite number of plans for organizing it : tariffs , protection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ progressive taxation , public schools , guaranteed jobs , guaranteed profits , minimum wages , a right to relief , a right to the tools of labor , free credit , and so on , and so on.
” “ When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society , over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.
” “ To rob the public , it is necessary to deceive them .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ persuade them that they are robbed for their own advantage , and to induce them to accept in exchange for their property , imaginary services , and often worse.
” “ The person who profits from this law will complain bitterly , defending his acquired rights .
He will claim that the state is obligated to protected and encourage his particular industry ; that this procedure enriches the state because the protected industry is thus able to spend more and to pay higher wages to the poor workingmen.
” “ Do not listen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The acceptance of these arguments will build legal plunder into a whole system .
In fact , this has already occurred .
The present-day delusion is an attempt to enrich everyone at the expense of everyone else ; to make plunder universal under the pretense of organizing it.
” “ If the fatal principle should come to be introduced , that , under pretense of organization , regulation , protection , or encouragement , the law may take from one party in order to give to another , help itself to the wealth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may increase that of one class , whether that of the agriculturists , the manufacturers , the ship owners , or artists and comedians ; then certainly , in this case , there is no class which may not try , and with reason , to place its hand upon the law , that would not demand with fury its right of election and eligibility , and that would overturn society rather than not obtain it .
Even beggars and vagabonds will prove to you that they have an incontestable title to it.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and do not know it.
” “ Trade protection accumulates upon a single point the good which it effects , while the evil inflicted is infused throughout the mass .
The one strikes the eye at a first glance , while the other becomes perceptible only to close investigation.
” “ Ought not the protectionist to blush at the part he would make society play ?
… Now , any society that would listen to this sophist , burden itself with taxes to satisfy him , and not perceive that the loss to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less a loss when others are forced to make up for it—such a society , I say , would deserve the burden inflicted upon it.
” For more Bastiat quotations , see here and here .

“The state is the great fictitious entity by which everyone seeks to live at the expense of everyone else.”
“Legal plunder has two roots: one of them … is in human greed; the other is in misconceived philanthropy.”
“What is freedom? It is the sum total of freedoms. To be free, under one’s own responsibility, to think and act, to speak and write, to work and trade, to teach and learn, that alone is to be free.”
A major subject at MasterResource is cronyism in the wind-power, solar-power, ethanol, battery, carbon capture and storage, and electric-vehicle industries. To this end, timeless wisdom pertaining to special government favor to politically adept businesses, aka corporate welfare, is worth repeating.
With the current Pandemic, notice how not only the government-dependent wind and solar industries but also conventional energies are lined up trying to get their share of government largess.
French economist Frédéric Bastiat (1801–1850) authored books and essays on political economy, the most influential of which is a slim volume called The Law. Classical-liberal Sheldon Richman summarized the genius and flair of Bastiat:
Bastiat marshaled logic, clarity, and exuberant wit in the cause of understanding society, prosperity, and liberty. In a series of brief essays and pamphlets, and a treatise on political economy, Bastiat taught, contra Rousseau, that there is a natural harmonious order to the social world, an order that emanates from the free exchange between human beings driven to satisfy unlimited wants with limited resources. The result is a steady progress in the material well-being of all. Interference with that freedom, and with its corollaries, property and competition, he wrote, leaves people poorer as well as oppressed. This is so because interference bars individuals from the creative action they otherwise would have engaged in. The fruits of the creativity thus forgone are “what is not seen” in any act of intervention.
Some classic Bastiat quotations follow:
“… legal plunder can be committed in an infinite number of ways. Thus we have an infinite number of plans for organizing it: tariffs, protection, benefits, subsidies, encouragements, progressive taxation, public schools, guaranteed jobs, guaranteed profits, minimum wages, a right to relief, a right to the tools of labor, free credit, and so on, and so on.”
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
“To rob the public, it is necessary to deceive them. To deceive them, it is necessary to persuade them that they are robbed for their own advantage, and to induce them to accept in exchange for their property, imaginary services, and often worse.”
“The person who profits from this law will complain bitterly, defending his acquired rights. He will claim that the state is obligated to protected and encourage his particular industry; that this procedure enriches the state because the protected industry is thus able to spend more and to pay higher wages to the poor workingmen.”
“Do not listen to this sophistry by vested interests. The acceptance of these arguments will build legal plunder into a whole system. In fact, this has already occurred. The present-day delusion is an attempt to enrich everyone at the expense of everyone else; to make plunder universal under the pretense of organizing it.”
“If the fatal principle should come to be introduced, that, under pretense of organization, regulation, protection, or encouragement, the law may take from one party in order to give to another, help itself to the wealth acquired by all the classes that it may increase that of one class, whether that of the agriculturists, the manufacturers, the ship owners, or artists and comedians; then certainly, in this case, there is no class which may not try, and with reason, to place its hand upon the law, that would not demand with fury its right of election and eligibility, and that would overturn society rather than not obtain it. Even beggars and vagabonds will prove to you that they have an incontestable title to it.”
“Often the masses are plundered and do not know it.”
Free Trade
“Trade protection accumulates upon a single point the good which it effects, while the evil inflicted is infused throughout the mass. The one strikes the eye at a first glance, while the other becomes perceptible only to close investigation.”
“When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.”
“Ought not the protectionist to blush at the part he would make society play? … Now, any society that would listen to this sophist, burden itself with taxes to satisfy him, and not perceive that the loss to which any trade is exposed is no less a loss when others are forced to make up for it—such a society, I say, would deserve the burden inflicted upon it.”
For more Bastiat quotations, see here and here.