iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--The conundrum of Hudson Bay bears that left shore late in 1983 with video from CBC archives

In 1983 , it was claimed that freeze-up of Hudson Bay was so late that polar bears didn ’ t leave the shore until the 4th of December – several weeks later than had been usual at that time .
However , the fact that sea ice charts show significant ice offshore weeks before that time suggests something else was probably going on .
About three weeks ago , CBC News republished an article ( with video ) from their 1983 archives for 1 December , about the plight of the people of Churchill who had already suffered one death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That was thirty-seven years ago , long before lack of sea ice was blamed for everything bad that happened to Western Hudson Bay polar bears .
In fact , rather than a really late freeze-up , it appears the problem had more to do with the fact the bears had had an especially tough spring that year and arrived onshore in only ‘ OK ’ condition – and as a consequence , the town dump became such a strong attractant for many bears that they were reluctant to leave when the sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no ice on Hudson Bay , and the bears were getting hungry [ my bold ] Polar bears were a common enough sight in the northern Manitoba town of Churchill , but in November 1983 they were getting too close for comfort .
Knowlton Nash , host of CBC ’ s The National , explained that people in the town had “ special reason ” to fear the “ annual invasion ” by polar bears .
“ Twice in the past week , bears have attacked people right on the streets of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the first time that had happened in 15 years , and patrols were setting out nightly to “ scare the bears off.
” Reporter Karen Webb , usually a Winnipeg correspondent , made the trip to Churchill and explained that the town sat on a migration route for the bears .
“ Usually the bears just walk around the town and are gone by the first week of November , ” she said .
“ The only people they encounter : the scientists and the game wardens who count them.
” But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that meant the ice couldn ’ t freeze solidly on Hudson Bay , preventing the bears from walking out to hunt for seal — “ and that means they ’ re hungry , ” explained Webb .
Their food of choice became whatever they could “ scrounge ” at the dump on the edge of town .
Of course , we now have a better perspective on what happened in 1983 , which historically was the worst fall season for Western Hudson Bay polar bears since records began – including those years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks earlier and freezing a bit later in the late 1990s .
First , the chart below shows what conditions were like in 1985 in the second week of November , when polar bears usually took to the ice ( average date , 16 November according to Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ) – not the first week in November , as the CBC reporter above claimed .
Below is the same date in 1983 , showing a bit of ice off Churchill but not much , so it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bit late : What ’ s interesting is that CIS charts show there was significant ice off Churchill by the third week of November ( below ) – not quite as much as in 1985 but close .
However , it seems that polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump weren ’ t particularly interested in leaving ( see comments below ) , similar to what happened with bears in Belushya Guba in 2019 .
By the first week in December , when it was said all the bears finally left for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of the bay was already covered in ice .
This is what Canadian researchers had to say about the fall of 1983 in Churchill , reported in the 1985 Polar Bear Specialist Group report ( Calvert et al .
1986:19 and 24 ) : “ In 1983 , the Polar Bear Control Programme began in late August and continued until early December .
Bear numbers in the Churchill area were extremely high during the last three weeks of the period .
By December 4 , the sea ice had formed and most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freeze-up date confirmed in Stirling et al .
1999:29 , using the old criteria of 50 % ice cover over the entire WH region ] Nearly 300 man-days were required to respond to 191 calls ( 76 in 1982 ) regarding polar bear problems .
From November 24 – December I , 84 calls were received .
Only three incidents resulted in property damage totalling $ 1050 .
However , two incidents resulted in personal injury and death .
The arm of a photographer from Wisconsin was severely mangled by a bear during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two weeks later , a Churchill resident was killed by a bear near the burned ruins of the Churchill Hotel .
Problem bears were captured at the garbage dump , in Churchill , and at Camp Nanuk .
Of the total 41 problem bears live-captured and placed in D-20 , 19 were culvert-trapped ( compared to 5 in 1982 ) and 22 free-ranged ( 1 in 1982 ) .
Nine problem bears were moved north of Churchill by helicopter in order to make more room in D -20 .
In 1984 , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was from 1 September to 2 November , more than a month shorter than the 1983 season .
There were 69 reported incidents , and 200 man-days expended .
There was one serious encounter – a mauling in which there appeared to be extenuating circumstances.
” [ my bold ] Polar bear researchers Ian Stirling and Malcolm Ramsay emphasized that the mean weight of pregnant females they enountered in 1983 was 37kgs lighter than in other years ( Ramsay and Stirling 1988:615 ) .
These authors stated : In one extreme example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year in November 1983 weighed only 99 kg ( 218 lb ) .
As thin as she was then , she survived and by the following July she was pregnant again and weighed a remarkable 410 kg ( 904 lb ) .
Lunn and Stirling had this to say about polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump in 1983 : In other words , in 1983 the bears arrived onshore in WH leaner than usual after a poor spring feeding season – we probably won ’ t ever know why the bears didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as they needed that year .
This was clearly an issue that bothered Ian Stirling , before he moved on to worrying about global warminng .
However , we know the poor feeding opportunities in 1983 wasn ’ t due to lack of summer ice because the bears came ashore in August as usual .
Coming ashore leaner than usual meant they got hungry earlier and many turned to the dump .
Having found food there , it appears they were not in any hurry to leave at the first opportunity when sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happened with the bears at Belushya Guba in 2019 .
At the end of November 2020 , there was much more ice than ‘ normal ’ over central and south-western Hudson Bay , indicated by the swath of dark blue in the chart below : By stage of development ( ice thickness ) , 2/3 of the bay was ice-covered by the end of November 2020 : This year , a number of polar bears seemed to hang around onshore when there was ample ice forming offshore .
They were not feeding at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t like 1983 .
But the bears did come ashore late and in excellent condition ( very fat ) this summer after what must have been a very good spring feeding season .
The bears were so fat they caused very little trouble around Churchill and many hung around well after there was ice available for hunting .
We know from the onshore webcams that WH bears were successfully hunting on the new ice close to shore as early as 31 October but it appears from Derocher ’ s tagged bears that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until almost a month later , near the end of November .
I don ’ t have an explanation .
However , bears hanging around weeks longer than necessary onshore in the fall is as odd as the bears that stayed on the rapidly declining ice in August this year , when there would have been few opportunities to catch seals .
Calvert , W. , Stirling , I. , Schweinsburg , R.E.
, Lee , L.J.
, Kolenosky , G.B.
, Shoesmith , M. , Smith , B. , Crete , M. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bear management in Canada 1982-84 .
In : Polar Bears : Proceedings of the 9th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC , 9-11 August , 1985 , Edmonton , Canada .
Anonymous ( eds ) .
Gland , Switzerland and Cambridge UK , IUCN .
http : //pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/ pg .
19-34 .
Lunn , N.J. and Stirling , I .
1985 .
The significance of supplemental food to polar bears during the ice-free period of Hudson Bay .
Canadian Journal of Zoology 63:2291-2297 .
Ramsay , M.A .
and Stirling , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ecology of female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) .
Journal of Zoology London 214:601-624. http : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1988.tb03762.x/abstract Stirling , I. , Lunn , N.J. and Iacozza , J .
1999 .
Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change .
Arctic 52:294-306. http : //arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/935/960 [ open access ]

In 1983, it was claimed that freeze-up of Hudson Bay was so late that polar bears didn’t leave the shore until the 4th of December – several weeks later than had been usual at that time. However, the fact that sea ice charts show significant ice offshore weeks before that time suggests something else was probably going on.
About three weeks ago, CBC News republished an article (with video) from their 1983 archives for 1 December, about the plight of the people of Churchill who had already suffered one death and one serious mauling by polar bears. That was thirty-seven years ago, long before lack of sea ice was blamed for everything bad that happened to Western Hudson Bay polar bears. In fact, rather than a really late freeze-up, it appears the problem had more to do with the fact the bears had had an especially tough spring that year and arrived onshore in only ‘OK’ condition – and as a consequence, the town dump became such a strong attractant for many bears that they were reluctant to leave when the sea ice formed offshore.
From the CBC archived report:
Warm November meant no ice on Hudson Bay, and the bears were getting hungry [my bold]
Polar bears were a common enough sight in the northern Manitoba town of Churchill, but in November 1983 they were getting too close for comfort. Knowlton Nash, host of CBC’s The National, explained that people in the town had “special reason” to fear the “annual invasion” by polar bears. “Twice in the past week, bears have attacked people right on the streets of the town,” said Nash.
It was the first time that had happened in 15 years, and patrols were setting out nightly to “scare the bears off.” Reporter Karen Webb, usually a Winnipeg correspondent, made the trip to Churchill and explained that the town sat on a migration route for the bears. “Usually the bears just walk around the town and are gone by the first week of November,” she said. “The only people they encounter: the scientists and the game wardens who count them.” But it had been a warm year, and that meant the ice couldn’t freeze solidly on Hudson Bay, preventing the bears from walking out to hunt for seal — “and that means they’re hungry,” explained Webb. Their food of choice became whatever they could “scrounge” at the dump on the edge of town.
Of course, we now have a better perspective on what happened in 1983, which historically was the worst fall season for Western Hudson Bay polar bears since records began – including those years after sea ice starting melting a few weeks earlier and freezing a bit later in the late 1990s.
THE SEA ICE IN 1983
First, the chart below shows what conditions were like in 1985 in the second week of November, when polar bears usually took to the ice (average date, 16 November according to Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017) – not the first week in November, as the CBC reporter above claimed.
Below is the same date in 1983, showing a bit of ice off Churchill but not much, so it’s true that the ice was a bit late:
What’s interesting is that CIS charts show there was significant ice off Churchill by the third week of November (below) – not quite as much as in 1985 but close. However, it seems that polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump weren’t particularly interested in leaving (see comments below), similar to what happened with bears in Belushya Guba in 2019.
By the first week in December, when it was said all the bears finally left for the ice (see quotes below), most of the bay was already covered in ice.
Problem bears in 1983
This is what Canadian researchers had to say about the fall of 1983 in Churchill, reported in the 1985 Polar Bear Specialist Group report (Calvert et al. 1986:19 and 24):
“In 1983, the Polar Bear Control Programme began in late August and continued until early December. Bear numbers in the Churchill area were extremely high during the last three weeks of the period. By December 4, the sea ice had formed and most of the bears had left. [freeze-up date confirmed in Stirling et al. 1999:29, using the old criteria of 50% ice cover over the entire WH region]
Nearly 300 man-days were required to respond to 191 calls (76 in 1982) regarding polar bear problems. From November 24 – December I, 84 calls were received. Only three incidents resulted in property damage totalling $1050. However, two incidents resulted in personal injury and death. The arm of a photographer from Wisconsin was severely mangled by a bear during a tour to Cape Churchill. About two weeks later, a Churchill resident was killed by a bear near the burned ruins of the Churchill Hotel.
Problem bears were captured at the garbage dump, in Churchill, and at Camp Nanuk. Of the total 41 problem bears live-captured and placed in D-20, 19 were culvert-trapped (compared to 5 in 1982) and 22 free-ranged (1 in 1982). Nine problem bears were moved north of Churchill by helicopter in order to make more room in D -20.
In 1984, the Polar Bear Control Programme season in Churchill was from 1 September to 2 November, more than a month shorter than the 1983 season. There were 69 reported incidents, and 200 man-days expended. There was one serious encounter – a mauling in which there appeared to be extenuating circumstances.” [my bold]
Polar bear researchers Ian Stirling and Malcolm Ramsay emphasized that the mean weight of pregnant females they enountered in 1983 was 37kgs lighter than in other years (Ramsay and Stirling 1988:615). These authors stated:
“...bears of all age and sex classes in the summer and autumn of 1983 appeared to us, at the time of capture, to be, on average, in poorer condition than at equivalent seasons in the years previous and subsequent. Some qualitative behavioural observations corroborated this view. During autumn, 1983, the town of Churchill recorded a larger number of bears feeding at its dump (Lunn & Stirling, 1985) than in the previous three years and a higher number of human-bear incidents than in any year of the previous decade. Three cubs-of-the-year were found abandoned by their mothers in autumn and near starvation, something seen in no other year.” [my bold]
In one extreme example, a female they encountered with three cubs-of-the year in November 1983 weighed only 99 kg (218 lb). As thin as she was then, she survived and by the following July she was pregnant again and weighed a remarkable 410 kg (904 lb).
Lunn and Stirling had this to say about polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump in 1983:
“In 1983, bears came into the dump more than a month earlier (late August compared with early October) and there were about twice as many (20 vs. 10-11) as in the previous 2 years.”
In other words, in 1983 the bears arrived onshore in WH leaner than usual after a poor spring feeding season – we probably won’t ever know why the bears didn’t get as much to eat as they needed that year. This was clearly an issue that bothered Ian Stirling, before he moved on to worrying about global warminng. However, we know the poor feeding opportunities in 1983 wasn’t due to lack of summer ice because the bears came ashore in August as usual. Coming ashore leaner than usual meant they got hungry earlier and many turned to the dump. Having found food there, it appears they were not in any hurry to leave at the first opportunity when sea ice appeared– exactly what seems to have happened with the bears at Belushya Guba in 2019.
WH freeze-up THIS YEAR
At the end of November 2020, there was much more ice than ‘normal’ over central and south-western Hudson Bay, indicated by the swath of dark blue in the chart below:
By stage of development (ice thickness), 2/3 of the bay was ice-covered by the end of November 2020:
This year, a number of polar bears seemed to hang around onshore when there was ample ice forming offshore. They were not feeding at the dump, so it wasn’t like 1983. But the bears did come ashore late and in excellent condition (very fat) this summer after what must have been a very good spring feeding season.
The bears were so fat they caused very little trouble around Churchill and many hung around well after there was ice available for hunting. We know from the onshore webcams that WH bears were successfully hunting on the new ice close to shore as early as 31 October but it appears from Derocher’s tagged bears that the last of them didn’t leave until almost a month later, near the end of November.
I don’t have an explanation. However, bears hanging around weeks longer than necessary onshore in the fall is as odd as the bears that stayed on the rapidly declining ice in August this year, when there would have been few opportunities to catch seals.
References
Calvert, W., Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Lee, L.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Shoesmith, M., Smith, B., Crete, M. and Luttich, S. 1986. Polar bear management in Canada 1982-84. In: Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 9th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 9-11 August, 1985, Edmonton, Canada. Anonymous (eds). Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/ pg. 19-34.
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Lunn, N.J. and Stirling, I. 1985. The significance of supplemental food to polar bears during the ice-free period of Hudson Bay. Canadian Journal of Zoology 63:2291-2297.
Ramsay, M.A. and Stirling, I. 1988. Reproductive biology and ecology of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Journal of Zoology London 214:601-624. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1988.tb03762.x/abstract
Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J. and Iacozza, J. 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic 52:294-306. http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/935/960 [open access]
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December 17, 2020 at 11:51PM


Amplifying Fear

A primary job of the press is to create and amplify fear directed towards pushing a political agenda .
They want everybody to be terrified by a virus which has a very low death/hospitalization rate for all groups other than the old and sick .
Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues , Study Finds – The New York Times 99 % of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness , Italy Says – Bloomberg PCR tests are largely worthless , and are the basis of most of the panic .
Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
– The New York Times Landmark legal ruling finds that Covid tests are not fit for purpose .
So what do the MSM do ?
They ignore it — RT Op-ed They demand everyone get the vaccine , and then tell us that the vaccines don ’ t work .
This Chinese propaganda is being pushed by Twitter today .
The idea being that the only way to beat the virus is to lock people in their homes like people believe they did in Wuhan .
Same story with climate .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is killing people , but death rates from natural disasters are down 90 % over the past century .
Democrats are desperate to confiscate guns , and want people to believe there is a gun crime epidemic .
Violent crime rates have been declining in the US for 30 years , and have dropped significantly since the “ assault weapons ” ban was revoked in 2004 .
Last year , Americans were four times as likely to be killed with a knife as with a rifle , and almost twice as likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rifle .
Thirteen states had no rifle murders .

A primary job of the press is to create and amplify fear directed towards pushing a political agenda. They want everybody to be terrified by a virus which has a very low death/hospitalization rate for all groups other than the old and sick.
CDC COVID Data Tracker
Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds – The New York Times
More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says – Bloomberg
PCR tests are largely worthless, and are the basis of most of the panic.
Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. – The New York Times
Landmark legal ruling finds that Covid tests are not fit for purpose. So what do the MSM do? They ignore it — RT Op-ed
They demand everyone get the vaccine, and then tell us that the vaccines don’t work.
This Chinese propaganda is being pushed by Twitter today. The idea being that the only way to beat the virus is to lock people in their homes like people believe they did in Wuhan.
Same story with climate. They want people to believe “climate change is killing people, but death rates from natural disasters are down 90% over the past century.
Natural Disasters – Our World in Data
Democrats are desperate to confiscate guns, and want people to believe there is a gun crime epidemic.
Violent crime rates have been declining in the US for 30 years, and have dropped significantly since the “assault weapons” ban was revoked in 2004.
FBI — Table 1
FBI — Table 1
Last year, Americans were four times as likely to be killed with a knife as with a rifle, and almost twice as likely to be killed by a fist as by a rifle. Thirteen states had no rifle murders.
FBI — Table 20


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-19--Risk of Seasonal Super-Exponential Growth of COVID-19

The US and the whole Northern Hemisphere have entered winter , the period when even common colds and flu grow wildly .
The daily mortality from COVID-19 increased from < 800 per Million in October to > 2,500 per Million now .
The current situation is more dangerous than it was at the beginning of the pandemic .
Some US states and European countries have just experienced episodes of super-exponential COVID-19 growth , and no one knows which area will be next .
This article discusses some underlying mechanisms behind this phenomenon .
Irrespective of these mechanisms , the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
The federal government can mail Hydroxychloroquine directly to the people .
Anyone who can not or does not want to use it , could keep it as emergency supplies .
The US COVID-19 case numbers are garbage ( the “ casedemic ” ) , but the number of deaths are probably accurate within a +/- 30 % margin .
A lot has been said about comorbidities , but much of what is reported as comorbidities are intermediate causes .
Among them are pneumonia ( ~40 % ) , respiratory failure ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and various cardiac failures [ 1 ] .
Influenza and pneumonia are reported together , but influenza has almost disappeared because of the extreme social distancing measures .
The effective reproduction number R is a function of pathogen , social behavior , and environmental factors ( weather , sunlight , nutrition etc. )
.
The basic reproduction number R0 is defined as R for ordinary social behavior ( not including the response to the epidemic ) and a certain constant environment .
For many infections , environmental factors are constant , because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ independent of season or happens only in one season .
This is not the case with COVID-19 .
The winter R0 of SARS-COV-2 is higher than for the summer .
The current COVID-19 situation is a cause for concern .
We are currently in a worse situation than we were in March 2020 , even with some immune population .
Some of the new factors we are facing are : • The traditional coronaviruses season is December – April [ 1b ] , and we have only entered it .
• It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cold beta-coronaviruses ( OC43 and HKU1 ) give people some immune protection against SARS-COV-2 .
In March 2020 , such cross-immunity could be at its peak .
However , now we are at least nine months away from such exposure .
Extreme social distancing has almost stopped the circulation of common cold coronaviruses .
• The currently infected population is very large and dispersed • Long lockdowns , shutdowns , and other unreasonable restrictions have undermined the population ’ s innate immunity , which protects against unfamiliar pathogens while the adaptive immune response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are : • Less time spent outside and thus , less exposure to UVB , causing lower levels of vitamin D and AMPs [ 2 ] • Less exposure to bright light interferes with the serotonin-melatonin cycle .
Melatonin is thought to have anti-coronavirus properties [ 4 ] • Long periods of inactivity while being exposed to fear-mongering causes anxiety and stress .
Ongoing stress makes us susceptible to illness [ 5 ] • Shutdowns led to food price increases .
At the same time , many people have lost their jobs or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nutrition .
The threshold percentage of immune persons ( including antibody and T-cell immunity from earlier infection with the pathogen , cross-immunity , and vaccination ) necessary to achieve “ herd immunity ” is typically computed as 1-1/R0 .
Most areas of the US are far from the “ herd immunity ” threshold for winter .
Super-exponential growth was observed near the peak of most seasonal ILI ( influenza and influenza-like diseases ) in the US [ 6 ] .
( This paper from the dynamics of complex networks is cited for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hypothesis of the “ relational exchange ” . )
Notice that , on smaller scales , such effects are even more pronounced .
However , when averaged out on a large scale , the effects are harder to detect .
For COVID-19 , super-exponential growth happens at the beginning of a new spike , not at the peak .
For practical purposes , differences between super-exponential and fast exponential hardly matter .
Here are some fall spikes of COVID-19 observed in the US : North Dakota – started around October 8 , peaked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 deaths happened within 10 weeks of this spike than over the whole pandemic period prior to this .
That catapulted North Dakota to the 4th place in the COVID-19 mortality ( per Million ) , just after NJ , NY , and MA .
Switzerland – started around October 5 , peaked around November 6 .
COVID-19 mortality in Switzerland jumped 50x , from the daily ~0.2 per Million before the spike to more > 10 from November 12 , and still continues to climb .
All these spikes started with super-exponential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epidemic caused by a novel pathogen , the spread is exponential , corresponding to the beginning of the Gompertz curve .
But when an infection resurges , like in a second wave , the growth can be faster than exponential .
This may happen when the pathogen is already widely spread among the population .
The system emerges from the steady state because the pathogen ’ s effective reproduction number increases over 1 .
This might happen because of the changing season .
Flu and common colds exhibit the same seasonal dynamics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected proportion of the population ; assuming short reproduction times and other parameters like those of SARS-COV-2 ) : When the effective reproduction number is variable : For a short time , In the beginning of a subsequent wave , season-dependent r ( t ) might be approximated linearly : Super-exponential growth , after a steady state period , can also be caused by changes in social behavior .
Denial of access to pharmaceutical prophylaxis and/or early antiviral treatment ( Hydroxychloroquine ) can also cause such episodes .
The latter might be even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in r ( t ) .
Not only susceptibility to infection , but also the likelihood of a severe outcome might be higher in the winter and during the time of an outbreak .
This does not mean that we should hide in burrows like lemmings .
It means prevention , early treatment , and special protection of vulnerable populations .
People 45+ , who have not had COVID-19 , and have no contra-indications , should take HCQ / HCQ + Zinc for prophylaxis ( at prophylactic dosage and regimen ) .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ afraid to prescribe HCQ for COVID-19 , it should be available over the counter .
Federal government might even ship HCQ , using USPS , to avoid dealing with some state governors .
Other measures for improving respiratory immunity for adults of all ages include vitamin C ( 0.5-1.0 g/day x3 ) , sunlight , and multi-vitamin/multi-mineral supplements .
Ventilation , temperature , and humidity should be increased in buildings where transmission can happen .
In addition , special care should be given to the elderly , to protect them from any contact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine is an important development .
It is especially suitable for 55+ .
Nevertheless , we should remember that the emergency approved vaccines have been tested for only a few months , and we should not put all our hopes in them .
At the risk of sounding repetitive , it is imperative that sick individuals should be treated early , using an HCQ-based regimen , or something at least equally effective ( Ivermectin ? )
.
There is no substitute for acquiring population immunity .
The summer was the best time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( as suggested by Paul Alexander , among others ) .
The federal government should monitor the spread of SARS-COV-2 and acquired immunity to it , by random sampling for antibodies and T-cells immunity .
Media-driven PCR testing is nearly useless .
Even the best statistics lag at least five days behind .
No one wants COVID-19 to spread in an uncontrolled or very fast manner .
Bursts in COVID-19 infections can be dangerous even for populations which are normally not at risk .
This is probably due to high initial viral loads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , among medical personnel .
Some measures that were senseless three months ago , do make sense now .
Counties , cities , towns , and communities , ruled by governors who do not believe in pharmacological prophylaxis , might want to shut down for a few days , if the number of new symptomatic cases becomes too high .
[ 1b ] What are the seasonal patterns of rhinoviral , coronaviral , enteroviral , and adenoviral upper respiratory tract infections ( URIs ) ?
https : //www.medscape.com/answers/302460-86798/what-are-the-seasonal-patterns-of-rhinoviral-coronaviral-enteroviral-and-adenoviral-upper-respiratory-tract-infections-uris ( accessed December 15 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UVB Activation of AMPs Production in the Skin and the Innate Respiratory Immunity .
Watts Up With That ?
2020. https : //wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/27/uvb-activation-of-amps-production-in-the-skin-and-the-innate-respiratory-immunity/ ( accessed December 15 , 2020 ) [ 3 ] Nieman DC , Wentz LM .
The compelling link between physical activity and the body ’ s defense system .
Journal of Sport and Health Science 2019 ; 8:201–17 https : //doi.org/10.1016/j.jshs.2018.09.009 [ 4 ] Shneider A , Kudriavtsev A , Vakhrusheva A .
Can melatonin reduce the severity of COVID-19 pandemic ?
Null 2020 ; 39:153–62 .
https : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Allard , A .
& Hébert-Dufresne , L. The effect of a prudent adaptive behaviour on disease transmission .
Nature Phys 12 , 1042–1046 ( 2016 ) .
https : //doi.org/10.1038/nphys3832

The US and the whole Northern Hemisphere have entered winter, the period when even common colds and flu grow wildly. The daily mortality from COVID-19 increased from <800 per Million in October to >2,500 per Million now. The current situation is more dangerous than it was at the beginning of the pandemic. Some US states and European countries have just experienced episodes of super-exponential COVID-19 growth, and no one knows which area will be next. This article discusses some underlying mechanisms behind this phenomenon. Irrespective of these mechanisms, the time for mass COVID-19 prophylaxis with Hydroxychloroquine is now. The federal government can mail Hydroxychloroquine directly to the people. Anyone who cannot or does not want to use it, could keep it as emergency supplies.
The US COVID-19 case numbers are garbage (the “casedemic”), but the number of deaths are probably accurate within a +/- 30% margin. A lot has been said about comorbidities, but much of what is reported as comorbidities are intermediate causes. Among them are pneumonia (~40%), respiratory failure (36%), ARDS, sepsis, and various cardiac failures [1]. Influenza and pneumonia are reported together, but influenza has almost disappeared because of the extreme social distancing measures.
Basic Reproduction Number & “Herd Immunity”
The effective reproduction number R is a function of pathogen, social behavior, and environmental factors (weather, sunlight, nutrition etc.). The basic reproduction number R0 is defined as R for ordinary social behavior (not including the response to the epidemic) and a certain constant environment. For many infections, environmental factors are constant, because the spread of the infections is either independent of season or happens only in one season. This is not the case with COVID-19. The winter R0 of SARS-COV-2 is higher than for the summer.
Now vs. March 2020
The current COVID-19 situation is a cause for concern. We are currently in a worse situation than we were in March 2020, even with some immune population. Some of the new factors we are facing are:
The traditional coronaviruses season is December – April [1b], and we have only entered it.
It is believed that the exposure to the common cold beta-coronaviruses (OC43 and HKU1) give people some immune protection against SARS-COV-2. In March 2020, such cross-immunity could be at its peak. However, now we are at least nine months away from such exposure. Extreme social distancing has almost stopped the circulation of common cold coronaviruses.
The currently infected population is very large and dispersed
Long lockdowns, shutdowns, and other unreasonable restrictions have undermined the population’s innate immunity, which protects against unfamiliar pathogens while the adaptive immune response develops. Some consequences of these restrictions are:
Less time spent outside and thus, less exposure to UVB, causing lower levels of vitamin D and AMPs [2]
Less physical exercise, which harms immunity [3]
Less exposure to bright light interferes with the serotonin-melatonin cycle. Melatonin is thought to have anti-coronavirus properties [4]
Long periods of inactivity while being exposed to fear-mongering causes anxiety and stress. Ongoing stress makes us susceptible to illness [5]
Shutdowns led to food price increases. At the same time, many people have lost their jobs or other sources of income. This worsens nutrition.
The threshold percentage of immune persons (including antibody and T-cell immunity from earlier infection with the pathogen, cross-immunity, and vaccination) necessary to achieve “herd immunity” is typically computed as 1-1/R0. Most areas of the US are far from the “herd immunity” threshold for winter.
Super-Exponential Growth
Super-exponential growth was observed near the peak of most seasonal ILI (influenza and influenza-like diseases) in the US [6]. (This paper from the dynamics of complex networks is cited for the data analysis, but not for its hypothesis of the “relational exchange”.) Notice that, on smaller scales, such effects are even more pronounced. However, when averaged out on a large scale, the effects are harder to detect.
For COVID-19, super-exponential growth happens at the beginning of a new spike, not at the peak. For practical purposes, differences between super-exponential and fast exponential hardly matter.
Here are some fall spikes of COVID-19 observed in the US:
North Dakota – started around October 8, peaked around November 15. 3 times more COVID-19 deaths happened within 10 weeks of this spike than over the whole pandemic period prior to this. That catapulted North Dakota to the 4th place in the COVID-19 mortality (per Million), just after NJ, NY, and MA.
South Dakota – started around October 10, peaked around November 12
Iowa – started around October 26, peaked around November 12
California – started around November 5, still growing
European countries:
Czechia – started around October 2, peaked around October 24
Bulgaria – started around October 5, peaked around November 18
Switzerland – started around October 5, peaked around November 6. COVID-19 mortality in Switzerland jumped 50x, from the daily ~0.2 per Million before the spike to more >10 from November 12, and still continues to climb.
All these spikes started with super-exponential growth.
Super-Exponential Growth Expression
In the beginning of an epidemic caused by a novel pathogen, the spread is exponential, corresponding to the beginning of the Gompertz curve. But when an infection resurges, like in a second wave, the growth can be faster than exponential. This may happen when the pathogen is already widely spread among the population. The system emerges from the steady state because the pathogen’s effective reproduction number increases over 1. This might happen because of the changing season. Flu and common colds exhibit the same seasonal dynamics.
Exponential growth is (P is the infected proportion of the population; assuming short reproduction times and other parameters like those of SARS-COV-2):
P(t) = P 0 *exp(R*t), where R is constant
When the effective reproduction number is variable:
P(t) = P 0 *exp(r(t)*t)
For a short time, In the beginning of a subsequent wave, season-dependent r(t) might be approximated linearly:
r(t) = k*t P(t) = P 0 *exp(k*t2)
Super-exponential growth, after a steady state period, can also be caused by changes in social behavior. Denial of access to pharmaceutical prophylaxis and/or early antiviral treatment (Hydroxychloroquine) can also cause such episodes. The latter might be even faster. Government interventions might cause discontinuities in r(t).
Prevention and Treatment Measures
Not only susceptibility to infection, but also the likelihood of a severe outcome might be higher in the winter and during the time of an outbreak. This does not mean that we should hide in burrows like lemmings. It means prevention, early treatment, and special protection of vulnerable populations.
People 45+, who have not had COVID-19, and have no contra-indications, should take HCQ / HCQ + Zinc for prophylaxis (at prophylactic dosage and regimen). In the current situation, when doctors are afraid to prescribe HCQ for COVID-19, it should be available over the counter. Federal government might even ship HCQ, using USPS, to avoid dealing with some state governors.
Other measures for improving respiratory immunity for adults of all ages include vitamin C (0.5-1.0 g/day x3), sunlight, and multi-vitamin/multi-mineral supplements. Ventilation, temperature, and humidity should be increased in buildings where transmission can happen.
In addition, special care should be given to the elderly, to protect them from any contact with potentially contagious COVID-19 carriers. The vaccine is an important development. It is especially suitable for 55+. Nevertheless, we should remember that the emergency approved vaccines have been tested for only a few months, and we should not put all our hopes in them. At the risk of sounding repetitive, it is imperative that sick individuals should be treated early, using an HCQ-based regimen, or something at least equally effective (Ivermectin?).
There is no substitute for acquiring population immunity. The summer was the best time to achieve such immunity among less vulnerable populations (as suggested by Paul Alexander, among others).
The federal government should monitor the spread of SARS-COV-2 and acquired immunity to it, by random sampling for antibodies and T-cells immunity. Media-driven PCR testing is nearly useless. Even the best statistics lag at least five days behind.
No one wants COVID-19 to spread in an uncontrolled or very fast manner. Bursts in COVID-19 infections can be dangerous even for populations which are normally not at risk. This is probably due to high initial viral loads, as was the case in March, among medical personnel. Some measures that were senseless three months ago, do make sense now. Counties, cities, towns, and communities, ruled by governors who do not believe in pharmacological prophylaxis, might want to shut down for a few days, if the number of new symptomatic cases becomes too high.
References
[1] Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics, CDC, December 16, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities
[1b] What are the seasonal patterns of rhinoviral, coronaviral, enteroviral, and adenoviral upper respiratory tract infections (URIs)? https://www.medscape.com/answers/302460-86798/what-are-the-seasonal-patterns-of-rhinoviral-coronaviral-enteroviral-and-adenoviral-upper-respiratory-tract-infections-uris (accessed December 15, 2020)
[2] Goldstein L. UVB Activation of AMPs Production in the Skin and the Innate Respiratory Immunity. Watts Up With That? 2020. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/11/27/uvb-activation-of-amps-production-in-the-skin-and-the-innate-respiratory-immunity/ (accessed December 15, 2020)
[3] Nieman DC, Wentz LM. The compelling link between physical activity and the body’s defense system. Journal of Sport and Health Science 2019;8:201–17 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jshs.2018.09.009
[4] Shneider A, Kudriavtsev A, Vakhrusheva A. Can melatonin reduce the severity of COVID-19 pandemic? Null 2020;39:153–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/08830185.2020.1756284
[5] How Stress Affects the Immune System. Psychology Today http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/how-the-mind-heals-the-body/201411/how-stress-affects-the-immune-system (accessed December 15, 2020)
[6] Scarpino, S., Allard, A. & Hébert-Dufresne, L. The effect of a prudent adaptive behaviour on disease transmission. Nature Phys 12, 1042–1046 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nphys3832
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December 18, 2020 at 05:49PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--New York Man Rescued After 10 Hours In Snow-Buried Car

Tioga County man ’ s car was buried in 4 feet ( 1.3 m ) of snow for 10 hours @ @ @ @ @ say 58-year-old Kevin Kresen of Candor had made several 911 calls after his car ran @ @ @ @ @ 17 near Campville .
However , even though he had made the 911 calls , @ @ @ @ @ .
On Thursday , when State Police Sergeant Jason Cawley learned that no one had @ @ @ @ @ ’ s vehicle , he joined the search on Route 17 .
When Cawley saw @ @ @ @ @ of mailboxes covered in snow , he started pushing the snow away in order to @ @ @ @ @ location .
Instead , he hit a windshield of a car .
Kresen was inside @ @ @ @ @ he went off the road and then a plow went by , covering the car @ @ @ @ @ .
He was in the car with no heat for 10 hours .
The post @ @ @ @ @ 10 Hours In Snow-Buried Car appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Tioga County man’s car was buried in 4 feet (1.3 m) of snow for 10 hours.
New York State Police say 58-year-old Kevin Kresen of Candor had made several 911 calls after his car ran off the road on Route 17 near Campville.
However, even though he had made the 911 calls, no one could find him.
On Thursday, when State Police Sergeant Jason Cawley learned that no one had been able to locate Kresen’s vehicle, he joined the search on Route 17.
When Cawley saw what looked like a row of mailboxes covered in snow, he started pushing the snow away in order to find the addresses for a location. Instead, he hit a windshield of a car. Kresen was inside.
Kresen told police that he went off the road and then a plow went by, covering the car with 4 feet of snow. He was in the car with no heat for 10 hours.
https://www.wicz.com/story/43080365/tioga-county-man-rescued-after-10-hours-in-snowburied-car
https://wnbf.com/state-trooper-finds-tioga-county-driver-stranded-in-snow-for-ten-hours/
The post New York Man Rescued After 10 Hours In Snow-Buried Car appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 18, 2020 at 05:05PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--Look at this video from Binghamton New York

Much like the rest of the area , the City of Binghamton remains under a state of emergency as crews @ @ @ @ @ streets .
More than three feet of snow .
More than a meter .
My @ @ @ @ @ of Binghampton are not too overly concerned about global warming today .
The post Look @ @ @ @ @ New York appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Binghampton was hit by record-breaking snowfall yesterday. Snowfall waist-deep.
FOX 40 WICZ TV – News, Sports, Weather, Contests & More
Much like the rest of the area, the City of Binghamton remains under a state of emergency as crews continue to work clearing the streets.
More than three feet of snow. More than a meter.
My guess is that the residents of Binghampton are not too overly concerned about global warming today.
https://www.wicz.com/story/43075180/binghamton-working-to-dig-streets-out-from-record-snowfall#
The post Look at this video from Binghamton New York appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 18, 2020 at 04:44PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--Australian Covid-19 Containment Cracks: Cases Spreading New South Wales and Possibly Queensland

New Aussie lockdowns coming ?
While Australia ’ s sun drenched Summer weather is a natural advantage which has helped us contain local Covid infections , the epidemic in Australia is far from over , with ongoing sporadic outbreaks .
The latest outbreak could be about to go national .
Note the link to the article contains a video describing how one infected person from NSW is known to have travelled to Queensland , visiting Brisbane and staying overnight on the Sunshine Coast before being diagnosed .
The source of this latest outbreak appears to be a quarantine failure ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learn more here .
The coronavirus cluster on the northern beaches grew to 28 cases on Friday , as NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian confirmed the source of the new infections was from overseas .
Genome sequencing of cases identified in the Avalon cluster confirmed overnight that it does not match any virus strains in recent Australian clusters and is a very close match to the virus in a woman currently in hotel quarantine who flew in from overseas on December 1 .
Anyone who claims one big lockdown and it is all over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia has tremendous natural advantages – hot , often humid weather , strong borders / geographical isolation , and a low population density .
Yet even Australia can not keep Covid-19 completely contained , it keeps coming back .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
New Aussie lockdowns coming? While Australia’s sun drenched Summer weather is a natural advantage which has helped us contain local Covid infections, the epidemic in Australia is far from over, with ongoing sporadic outbreaks. The latest outbreak could be about to go national.
Coronavirus updates LIVE: Northern beaches COVID cluster grows in Sydney as new case confirmed in Cronulla; NSW remains on high alert By Josh Dye
Updated December 18, 2020 — 10.56am Sydney’s northern beaches residents have been asked to stay in their homes after a coronavirus cluster in the area reached 17 cases on Thursday
Tasmania has shut its border to anyone who has been in northern beaches on or since December 11
Queensland, Victoria and the Northern Territory have asked people who have been on the northern beaches to quarantine for 14 days. WA went a step further and imposed this on anyone from NSW
NSW Health has added more than a dozen new locations – including an Aldi supermarket, Commonwealth Bank branch and a Chemist Warehouse outlet – to its list of COVID-impacted venues in the northern beaches
Overnight, French President Emmanuel Macron tested positive for COVID-19 after developing symptoms. There have now been over 74 million cases globally and 1.6 million deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University tally … Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-sydney-remains-on-high-alert-after-northern-beaches-covid-19-cluster-grows-to-17-20201217-p56okd.html
Note the link to the article contains a video describing how one infected person from NSW is known to have travelled to Queensland, visiting Brisbane and staying overnight on the Sunshine Coast before being diagnosed.
The source of this latest outbreak appears to be a quarantine failure;
Northern beaches cluster reaches 28 cases, Sydney placed on high alert For our free coronavirus pandemic coverage, learn more here. By Mary Ward and Josh Dye
Updated December 18, 2020 — 1.36pm The coronavirus cluster on the northern beaches grew to 28 cases on Friday, as NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian confirmed the source of the new infections was from overseas. … Genome sequencing of cases identified in the Avalon cluster confirmed overnight that it does not match any virus strains in recent Australian clusters and is a very close match to the virus in a woman currently in hotel quarantine who flew in from overseas on December 1. … Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/northern-beaches-cluster-reaches-28-cases-20201218-p56oo4.html
Anyone who claims one big lockdown and it is all over is talking out of their proverbial. Australia has tremendous natural advantages – hot, often humid weather, strong borders / geographical isolation, and a low population density. Yet even Australia cannot keep Covid-19 completely contained, it keeps coming back.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--Michael Schellenberger on Green Deals

Michael Schellenberger on Green Deals

Following my piece on home insulation , I have been reminded of this article by Michael Schellenberger last year ( a year before he publicly fell out with the eco loons ) : Three weeks ago , Rep. Ocasio-Cortez said , `` The world is gon na end in 12 years if we don ’ t address climate change . ''
Then , yesterday , she proposed a “ transition from ” nuclear power , America ’ s largest source of emissions-free energy .
What gives ?
How does she avoid the cognitive dissonance created by holding two radically opposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ green new deals that have ever worked were done with nuclear , not renewables .
How do I know ?
Well , for starters , I helped create one of them .
In 2003 I co-founded a progressive Democratic , labor-environment push for a Green New Deal .
We called ours a “ new Apollo project , ” after the 1969 moonshot .
But it was the same green agenda of advocating taxpayer money — we asked for $ 300 billion — for efficiency and renewables .
By 2007 our efforts paid off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proposal and ran with it .
Between 2009 and 2015 , the U.S. government spent about $ 150 billion on our Green New Deal , nearly half of which went to renewables .
An appallingly large sum — $ 24 billion — was spent on biofuels , even though everyone knew that they pollute more than fossil fuels .
Now we know they also destroy rainforests .
Another $ 15 billion went to energy efficiency , which turned out to be a massive waste of money .
Twice as much money was spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ episode disproved the widely parroted myth that efficiency investments always “ pay for themselves.
” Determined to learn nothing from history , Green New Dealers are now proposing to spend taxpayer dollars weatherizing every building in America .
Meanwhile , the two poster children for renewables — California and Germany — have become models of how not to deal with climate change .
Germany spent $ 580 billion on renewables and its emissions have been flat for a decade .
And all of that unreliable solar and wind has made Germany ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Emissions in California rose after it closed one nuclear plant and will rise again if closes another .
To the extent its emissions declined it was from the replacement of electricity from coal with electricity from cheaper and cleaner natural gas .
Bottom line ?
Had California and Germany spent on nuclear what they instead spent on renewables , both places would already have 100 % clean power .
Chagrined by my role , which resulted from equal parts ideology and ignorance , I spent the last decade looking around the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two things .
First , no nation has decarbonized its electricity supply with solar and wind .
Second , the only successful decarbonization efforts were achieved with nuclear .
Just look at France and Sweden .
In the 1970s and 1980s , they built nuclear plants at the rate required to achieve the alleged climate goals of the Green New Deal .
Sweden in 2017 generated a whopping 95 % of its total electricity from zero-carbon sources , with 42 and 41 coming from nuclear and hydroelectric power .
France generated 88 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with 72 % and 10 % , respectively , coming from nuclear and hydroelectric power .
Some claim Denmark decarbonized its electricity sector using wind , which is nearly half of its electricity .
But the tiny European nation was only able to deploy that much wind electricity because it could dump its excess wind electricity onto its neighbors — at a very high cost .
Denmark today has the most expensive electricity in Europe .
If you want wages to rise — and Ocasio-Cortez and the Democrats say they do — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cheap , not expensive .
Expensive electricity retards economic growth , which puts downward pressure on wages .
By contrast , cheap energy increases growth and raises wages .
But even comparing jobs , the ones in the nuclear sector pay far more , and are far more stable , than the temporary jobs throwing up wind farms and solar roofs , and retrofitting buildings .
Where nuclear energy depends on high-wage and highly-skilled workers , most “ green jobs ” are low-wage and low-skill .
And adding solar and wind to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states that have deployed the most have seen sharp rises in their electricity costs and prices compared to the national average .
Some nations like Norway , Brazil , and Costa Rica have decarbonized their electricity supplies with the use of hydroelectric dams , but they are far less reliable and scalable than nuclear .
Brazil is a case in point .
Hydro has fallen from over 90 % of its electricity 20 years ago to about two-thirds in 2016 .
Because Brazil failed to grow its nuclear program in the 1990s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with fossil fuels .
And both Brazil and hydro-heavy California stand as warnings against relying on hydro-electricity in a period of climate change .
Both had to use fossil fuels to make up for hydro during recent drought years .
That leaves us with nuclear power as the only truly scalable , reliable , low-carbon energy source proven capable of eliminating carbon emissions from the power sector .
Given nuclear ’ s singular status in decarbonizing electricity , how does Ocasio-Cortez avoid the cognitive dissonance that should be created by her desire to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plants ?
By viewing solar and wind as radically new energy sources capable of disrupting outmoded forms of energy .
In reality , renewables are our oldest forms of energy , and both electricity-generating solar panels and wind turbines date back to the late 1800s .
Even the call for a Green New Deal is old , not new .
In 2015 , a group of British Lords and Sirs copied our 2003 new Apollo Project and issued their own call for a “ Global Apollo Programme.
” And we got our idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1998 Nature article calling for a “ an international effort pursued with the same urgency as the Manhattan Project or the Apollo space program.
” I traced the history back as far as it goes until I finally discovered the first call for the U.S. to invest “ hundreds of millions ” for solar energy due to its “ tremendous potential.
” It was made by the U.S. secretary of the interior — in 1949 .
It turns out that renewables have had a fanatical following for a very long time .
Consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and other major newspapers : • `` Solar Energy : What the Sun ’ s Rays Can Do and May Yet Be Able to Do '' — The author notes that while solar energy is not yet economical `` the day is not unlikely to arrive before long . ''
• “ Use of Solar Energy Near a Solution.
” “ Improved Device Held to Rival Hydroelectric Production ” • “ M.I.T .
Will ‘ Store ’ Heat of the Sun ” The three articles above are from 1891 , 1931 , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been viewed , for nearly 200 years , as a potential source of humankind ’ s spiritual salvation .
In 1833 , a utopian socialist German immigrant to the U.S. proposed to build massive solar power plants that used mirrors to concentrate sunlight on boilers , mile-long wind farms , and new dams to store power .
“ It is just possible the world is standing at a turning point , ” a New York Times reporter gushed in 1931 , “ in the evolution of civilization….
” All that was needed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is particularly relevant to the latest report on home insulation .
Look again at what Schellenberger said : When you actually examine the logic , without rose tinted spectacles on , it is really pretty obvious .
If these energy efficiency schemes really did save money , everybody would be doing them , without the need for government regulation and subsidy .
I worked at British Steel for two decades , and we used a lot of energy .
I can tell you that works management had to focus on energy usage on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a longer term scale .
As the accountant at the melting shop for a number of years , I was personally involved in both monitoring energy usage , as well as evaluating capital projects aimed at reducing energy costs , which were a substantial element of overall expenditure .
( For those familiar with Sheffield , I was at SMACC ! )
But what we need to appreciate is that the Committee on Climate Change long ago lost touch with the real world .
When you read their reports , the ONLY @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carbon dioxide emissions – what they peculiarly call “ abating carbon dioxide ” .
Their costings revolve around the cost of abatement .
Consequently they end up choosing the policies which are ( hopefully ) the least destructive !
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Following my piece on home insulation, I have been reminded of this article by Michael Schellenberger last year (a year before he publicly fell out with the eco loons):
Three weeks ago, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez said, "The world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change."
Then, yesterday, she proposed a “transition from” nuclear power, America’s largest source of emissions-free energy.
What gives? How does she avoid the cognitive dissonance created by holding two radically opposed views?
After all, the only green new deals that have ever worked were done with nuclear, not renewables.
How do I know? Well, for starters, I helped create one of them.
In 2003 I co-founded a progressive Democratic, labor-environment push for a Green New Deal. We called ours a “new Apollo project,” after the 1969 moonshot.
But it was the same green agenda of advocating taxpayer money — we asked for $300 billion — for efficiency and renewables.
By 2007 our efforts paid off when then-candidate Barack Obama picked up our proposal and ran with it. Between 2009 and 2015, the U.S. government spent about $150 billion on our Green New Deal, nearly half of which went to renewables.
An appallingly large sum — $24 billion — was spent on biofuels, even though everyone knew that they pollute more than fossil fuels. Now we know they also destroy rainforests.
Another $15 billion went to energy efficiency, which turned out to be a massive waste of money.
Twice as much money was spent weatherizing homes as was saved. The episode disproved the widely parroted myth that efficiency investments always “pay for themselves.”
Determined to learn nothing from history, Green New Dealers are now proposing to spend taxpayer dollars weatherizing every building in America.
Meanwhile, the two poster children for renewables — California and Germany — have become models of how not to deal with climate change.
Germany spent $580 billion on renewables and its emissions have been flat for a decade. And all of that unreliable solar and wind has made Germany’s electricity the second most expensive in Europe.
Emissions in California rose after it closed one nuclear plant and will rise again if closes another. To the extent its emissions declined it was from the replacement of electricity from coal with electricity from cheaper and cleaner natural gas.
Bottom line? Had California and Germany spent on nuclear what they instead spent on renewables, both places would already have 100% clean power.
Green Nuclear Deals
Chagrined by my role, which resulted from equal parts ideology and ignorance, I spent the last decade looking around the world for alternative models.
I quickly discovered two things. First, no nation has decarbonized its electricity supply with solar and wind. Second, the only successful decarbonization efforts were achieved with nuclear.
Just look at France and Sweden. In the 1970s and 1980s, they built nuclear plants at the rate required to achieve the alleged climate goals of the Green New Deal.
Sweden in 2017 generated a whopping 95% of its total electricity from zero-carbon sources, with 42 and 41 coming from nuclear and hydroelectric power.
France generated 88% of its total electricity from zero-carbon sources, with 72% and 10%, respectively, coming from nuclear and hydroelectric power.
Some claim Denmark decarbonized its electricity sector using wind, which is nearly half of its electricity.
But the tiny European nation was only able to deploy that much wind electricity because it could dump its excess wind electricity onto its neighbors — at a very high cost. Denmark today has the most expensive electricity in Europe.
If you want wages to rise — and Ocasio-Cortez and the Democrats say they do — then you should want energy to be cheap, not expensive.
Expensive electricity retards economic growth, which puts downward pressure on wages. By contrast, cheap energy increases growth and raises wages.
But even comparing jobs, the ones in the nuclear sector pay far more, and are far more stable, than the temporary jobs throwing up wind farms and solar roofs, and retrofitting buildings.
Where nuclear energy depends on high-wage and highly-skilled workers, most “green jobs” are low-wage and low-skill.
And adding solar and wind to the grid make electricity expensive. Those U.S. states that have deployed the most have seen sharp rises in their electricity costs and prices compared to the national average.
Some nations like Norway, Brazil, and Costa Rica have decarbonized their electricity supplies with the use of hydroelectric dams, but they are far less reliable and scalable than nuclear.
Brazil is a case in point. Hydro has fallen from over 90% of its electricity 20 years ago to about two-thirds in 2016. Because Brazil failed to grow its nuclear program in the 1990s, it made up for new electricity growth with fossil fuels.
And both Brazil and hydro-heavy California stand as warnings against relying on hydro-electricity in a period of climate change. Both had to use fossil fuels to make up for hydro during recent drought years.
That leaves us with nuclear power as the only truly scalable, reliable, low-carbon energy source proven capable of eliminating carbon emissions from the power sector.
The Fanaticism of Renewables
Given nuclear’s singular status in decarbonizing electricity, how does Ocasio-Cortez avoid the cognitive dissonance that should be created by her desire to both slash emissions and shut down nuclear plants?
By viewing solar and wind as radically new energy sources capable of disrupting outmoded forms of energy.
In reality, renewables are our oldest forms of energy, and both electricity-generating solar panels and wind turbines date back to the late 1800s.
Even the call for a Green New Deal is old, not new. In 2015, a group of British Lords and Sirs copied our 2003 new Apollo Project and issued their own call for a “Global Apollo Programme.”
And we got our idea for a new Apollo Project from a 1998 Nature article calling for a “an international effort pursued with the same urgency as the Manhattan Project or the Apollo space program.”
I traced the history back as far as it goes until I finally discovered the first call for the U.S. to invest “hundreds of millions” for solar energy due to its “tremendous potential.” It was made by the U.S. secretary of the interior — in 1949.
It turns out that renewables have had a fanatical following for a very long time. Consider these headlines from The New York Times and other major newspapers:
"Solar Energy: What the Sun’s Rays Can Do and May Yet Be Able to Do" — The author notes that while solar energy is not yet economical "the day is not unlikely to arrive before long."
“Use of Solar Energy Near a Solution.” “Improved Device Held to Rival Hydroelectric Production”
“M.I.T. Will ‘Store’ Heat of the Sun”
The three articles above are from 1891, 1931, and 1939.
It turns out that renewables have been viewed, for nearly 200 years, as a potential source of humankind’s spiritual salvation.
In 1833, a utopian socialist German immigrant to the U.S. proposed to build massive solar power plants that used mirrors to concentrate sunlight on boilers, mile-long wind farms, and new dams to store power.
“It is just possible the world is standing at a turning point,” a New York Times reporter gushed in 1931, “in the evolution of civilization….”
All that was needed was a Green New Deal.
.https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/02/08/the-only-green-new-deals-that-have-ever-worked-were-done-with-nuclear-not-renewables/?sh=66e69dcb7f61
This is particularly relevant to the latest report on home insulation. Look again at what Schellenberger said:
Another $15 billion went to energy efficiency, which turned out to be a massive waste of money. Twice as much money was spent weatherizing homes as was saved. The episode disproved the widely parroted myth that efficiency investments always “pay for themselves.” Determined to learn nothing from history, Green New Dealers are now proposing to spend taxpayer dollars weatherizing every building in America.
When you actually examine the logic, without rose tinted spectacles on, it is really pretty obvious. If these energy efficiency schemes really did save money, everybody would be doing them , without the need for government regulation and subsidy.
I worked at British Steel for two decades, and we used a lot of energy. I can tell you that works management had to focus on energy usage on a day to day as well as on a longer term scale.
As the accountant at the melting shop for a number of years, I was personally involved in both monitoring energy usage, as well as evaluating capital projects aimed at reducing energy costs, which were a substantial element of overall expenditure. (For those familiar with Sheffield, I was at SMACC!)
But what we need to appreciate is that the Committee on Climate Change long ago lost touch with the real world. When you read their reports, the ONLY thing that matters to them is reducing carbon dioxide emissions – what they peculiarly call “abating carbon dioxide”. Their costings revolve around the cost of abatement. Consequently they end up choosing the policies which are (hopefully) the least destructive!
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December 18, 2020 at 04:00PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--Record snowfall in Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New York

Boston almost doubles its previous snowfall record for the day .
Pennsylvania city hit by the most snowfall – ever – from a single storm .
Just west of Yukon , Oklahoma City received 2.7 inches of snow , breaking a record set in 1911 .
See video of a field in Yukon covered in snow : https : //uk.news.yahoo.com/winter-flurry-brings-record-snowfall Snowfall daily records broken in both Boston and Providence on Thursday Boston City Hall was closed , non-essential state workers did not have to report for work , and state courts shuttered their doors .
The first snowstorm of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ powerful to hit Massachusetts and the region in several years .
It left local public works crews in Fitchburg wrestling with the removal of 15.5 inches of snow while numerus communities across the state received between 10 and 14 inches of snow , the National Weather Service said .
Boston recorded 12.5 inches of snow on Thursday , breaking the previous record for the day of 6.4 inches set in 2013 , the National Weather Service said .
Providence , Rhode Island , also crossed an historic threshold – getting 5.8 inches compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1961 , the weather service said .
At one point , 8,000 customers were without power .
Not just for the day , not just for the month , not just for the year , but the most snowfall – ever – from a single storm .
Williamsport saw a record amount of snowfall from a single storm , totaling at 24.7 inches .
The previous record was held since 1964 at 24.1 inches .
Binghamton , N.Y. , set a new record with more than 3 feet of snow as of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Binghamton Airport reported 39.1 inches of snow and another spot in Binghamton reported 41.0 inches , according to the National Weather Service .
Photos on social media show cars buried under snow and residents , waist-deep in white , struggling to dig out their driveways .
Thanks to Clay Olson for these links The post Record snowfall in Oklahoma , Massachusetts , Rhode Island , Pennsylvania , New York appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Boston almost doubles its previous snowfall record for the day. Pennsylvania city hit by the most snowfall – ever – from a single storm.
Record-breaking snowfall sweeps across Oklahoma
Breaks record set more than 100 years ago
Just west of Yukon, Oklahoma City received 2.7 inches of snow, breaking a record set in 1911.
See video of a field in Yukon covered in snow:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/winter-flurry-brings-record-snowfall
Snowfall daily records broken in both Boston and Providence on Thursday
Boston City Hall was closed, non-essential state workers did not have to report for work, and state courts shuttered their doors.
The first snowstorm of the season was also one of the most powerful to hit Massachusetts and the region in several years. It left local public works crews in Fitchburg wrestling with the removal of 15.5 inches of snow while numerus communities across the state received between 10 and 14 inches of snow, the National Weather Service said.
Boston recorded 12.5 inches of snow on Thursday, breaking the previous record for the day of 6.4 inches set in 2013, the National Weather Service said. Providence, Rhode Island, also crossed an historic threshold – getting 5.8 inches compared with the previous record of 4 inches in 1961, the weather service said.
At one point, 8,000 customers were without power.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/17/metro/look-snowfall-across-massachusetts/
Pennsylvania – Record amount of snowfall from a single storm
Not just for the day, not just for the month, not just for the year, but the most snowfall – ever – from a single storm.
Williamsport saw a record amount of snowfall from a single storm, totaling at 24.7 inches.
The previous record was held since 1964 at 24.1 inches.
Record-breaking snowfall waist deep in New York
Binghamton, N.Y., set a new record with more than 3 feet of snow as of Thursday morning. At 6:40 a.m., the Binghamton Airport reported 39.1 inches of snow and another spot in Binghamton reported 41.0 inches, according to the National Weather Service.
Binghamton’s previous 2-day snowfall record was 35.3 inches, set in March 2017.
Photos on social media show cars buried under snow and residents, waist-deep in white, struggling to dig out their driveways.
https://www.wicz.com/story/43075180/binghamton-working-to-dig-streets-out-from-record-snowfall
Thanks to Clay Olson for these links
The post Record snowfall in Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New York appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 18, 2020 at 02:14PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--Wrong Again: 2020’s Failed Climate Doomsaying

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Home Insulation

I ’ ve been meaning to take a closer look at the plans for home insulation under the CCC ’ s Sixth Carbon Budget .
But what does this mean for individual householders ?
Quite frighteningly , 7.4 million homes are expected to be fitted out with external or internal wall insulation at an average cost of about £8000 .
Worse still , the CCC admit that this cost does not include the cost of scaffolding or planning , which will easily push the cost over £10,000 .
And the energy savings ?
Between 15 % and 18 % , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gas .
It does not take a genius to work out that economically it is a waste of money .
Millions more will need to fit cavity and/or loft insulation .
In total , these plans add up to a bill of £80bn , which raises the question of who will pay .
Homeowners will be aghast when they find out they are on the hook for this , and government does not have this sort of money to waste , particularly when it will have to shell out billions more to insulate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So , will all of this be voluntary ?
Not if the CCC gets its way !
By 2028 , all rented homes will have to meet EPC-C efficiency .
Sales of homes which don ’ t meet this standard will be banned from 2028 , mortgages will not be provided by 2033 for any offending homes .
In other words , if you are unlucky enough to own one of the 7 million houses with poor insulation , probably an older building , and you want to sell it , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grand .
And if you were thinking of buying one , or remortgaging , ditto .
EPC-C is not a very demanding standard anyway .
It can typically be achieved with cavity and loft insulation if you already have a condensing boiler .
In other words , the energy savings from this Stalinist diktat will be tiny over the country as a whole .
Certainly for anybody fitting an air sourced heat pump , you will to spend much more on insulation than the CCC is suggesting is the case for the majority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factor which the CCC has conveniently forgotten – the knock on implications of solid wall insulation .
If it is carried out internally , you lose some of your room space , and you will of course need to redecorate throughout .
External insulation meanwhile totally alters the visual facade of your property , almost certainly for the worst .
And all to save a few tonnes of carbon dioxide !
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget/
I’ve been meaning to take a closer look at the plans for home insulation under the CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget.
The plan for 2035 baldly states:
But what does this mean for individual householders?
Table B3.2 tells us:
Quite frighteningly, 7.4 million homes are expected to be fitted out with external or internal wall insulation at an average cost of about £8000. Worse still, the CCC admit that this cost does not include the cost of scaffolding or planning, which will easily push the cost over £10,000.
And the energy savings? Between 15% and 18%, roughly £60 a year if you use gas. It does not take a genius to work out that economically it is a waste of money.
Millions more will need to fit cavity and/or loft insulation.
In total, these plans add up to a bill of £80bn, which raises the question of who will pay. Homeowners will be aghast when they find out they are on the hook for this, and government does not have this sort of money to waste, particularly when it will have to shell out billions more to insulate and upgrade its own buildings and offices.
So, will all of this be voluntary? Not if the CCC gets its way!
By 2028, all rented homes will have to meet EPC-C efficiency. Sales of homes which don’t meet this standard will be banned from 2028, mortgages will not be provided by 2033 for any offending homes.
In other words, if you are unlucky enough to own one of the 7 million houses with poor insulation, probably an older building, and you want to sell it, you will first have to fork out 10 grand.
And if you were thinking of buying one, or remortgaging, ditto.
EPC-C is not a very demanding standard anyway. It can typically be achieved with cavity and loft insulation if you already have a condensing boiler. In other words, the energy savings from this Stalinist diktat will be tiny over the country as a whole.
Certainly for anybody fitting an air sourced heat pump, you will to spend much more on insulation than the CCC is suggesting is the case for the majority of homes.
There is one other factor which the CCC has conveniently forgotten – the knock on implications of solid wall insulation.
If it is carried out internally, you lose some of your room space, and you will of course need to redecorate throughout.
External insulation meanwhile totally alters the visual facade of your property, almost certainly for the worst.
And all to save a few tonnes of carbon dioxide!
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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December 18, 2020 at 11:36AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-18--Dozens Of Scientists Reveal Most Of The Planet Is COLDER TODAY Than Most Of Past 8000 Years

Undisputed temperature reconstructions from around the world show the planet was much warmer over most of the Holocene ( past 10,000 years ) than it is today .
Kenneth recently wrote how a wealth of new research in glacier and sea ice extent show modern Iceland is 2-4°C colder than all of the last 8000 years .
Only the late 19th century was slightly colder .
That post was featured at WUWT , and a reader there presented other graphs from other parts of the world suggesting the early Holocene was warmer worldwide .
First , South America going back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much warmer from the 1930s to the 1950s than it is today : Next we have a temperature reconstruction from the Canadian Arctic going back 7000 years : Note , as many of us have already known , the Arctic was indeed much warmer earlier in the Holocene than it is today .
Finally we look at the Swiss Alps going back 9000 years : Here we see that the Alps are very cold today compared to the early Holocene .
This has also been confirmed by old tree trunks found under glaciers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has “ a lot more of these types of graphs that show very clearly that the WHOLE WORLD has been much warmer than now for MOST of the last 10,000 years.
” And indeed there are many !
Dr. Sebastian Lüning ’ s admirable and outstanding reference Medieval Warm Period Map here shows hundreds climate reconstructions for that period .
There we find an abundant number of studies showing today ’ s climate is nothing unusual compared to 1000 years ago .
Here you will find 80 charts from 58 peer-reviewed papers showing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these papers represent is not going to go away .

Undisputed temperature reconstructions from around the world show the planet was much warmer over most of the Holocene (past 10,000 years) than it is today.
Kenneth recently wrote how a wealth of new research in glacier and sea ice extent show modern Iceland is 2-4°C colder than all of the last 8000 years. Only the late 19th century was slightly colder.
That post was featured at WUWT, and a reader there presented other graphs from other parts of the world suggesting the early Holocene was warmer worldwide.
First, South America going back 100 years, which shows it was much warmer from the 1930s to the 1950s than it is today:
Next we have a temperature reconstruction from the Canadian Arctic going back 7000 years:
Note, as many of us have already known, the Arctic was indeed much warmer earlier in the Holocene than it is today.
Finally we look at the Swiss Alps going back 9000 years:
Here we see that the Alps are very cold today compared to the early Holocene. This has also been confirmed by old tree trunks found under glaciers.
The reader at WUWT added he has “a lot more of these types of graphs that show very clearly that the WHOLE WORLD has been much warmer than now for MOST of the last 10,000 years.”
And indeed there are many!
Medieval Warm Period confirmed by hundreds of papers
Dr. Sebastian Lüning’s admirable and outstanding reference Medieval Warm Period Map here shows hundreds climate reconstructions for that period. There we find an abundant number of studies showing today’s climate is nothing unusual compared to 1000 years ago.
Here you will find 80 charts from 58 peer-reviewed papers showing the same.
This massive data record these papers represent is not going to go away.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-19--‘The long drawn-out cry of intergenerational rage’

The Telegraph have prostituted themselves with this latest advertising feature , written by the eco-loon .
Jonathon Porrit : The righteous anger of our younger generations over decades of ignoring climate change must be the catalyst for long-term action There are many reasons why young people today may feel they ’ ve got the short end of the intergenerational straw .
But today ’ s climate emergency provides the starkest – and most morally reprehensible – justification for any potential grievances that young people may have .
Consider for a moment two disconnected data points regarding the year 2100 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ girl in the UK today is 90 , predicts the Office for National Statistics .
So a very significant number of them will still be alive in 2100 .
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , average sea levels will have risen by no less than a metre by 2100 .
That ’ s the best case .
You probably don ’ t want to think too much about the worst case .
That ’ s still 80 years away .
Climate change is already ravaging the lives of hundreds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We all know 2020 has been a terrible year – and that ’ s not just because of Covid-19 .
Unprecedented change : Wildfires dominated headlines across the world in 2020 Credit : Getty Unprecedented wildfires in Australia , California , Oregon , Brazil , even the Arctic Circle .
Appalling flooding in China , India and Bangladesh .
The worst-ever hurricane season in the Atlantic .
The second worst year on record for melting Arctic sea ice .
I could go on .
The disasters , assuredly , will be on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but well into the next century .
And if we continue to do next to nothing about it , it will be a great deal worse .
This is the backdrop to the rising anger of so many young people .
At the UN ’ s Climate Action Summit in 2019 , Swedish activist Greta Thunberg expressed this as follows : “ You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words .
For more than 30 years , the science has been crystal-clear .
How dare you continue to look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ re doing enough when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight .
You are failing us .
But young people are starting to understand your betrayal.
” The disasters will be on a rising scale and if we continue to do next to nothing about it , it will be a great deal worse Jonathon Porritt I saw that as the first salvo in what I believe will become a long-drawn-out cry of intergenerational rage .
That phenomenon will become one of the most significant factors in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of rage will be so important in sustaining young people ’ s hopes .
When schoolchildren go on strike , this itself is a form of civil disobedience .
And why would anyone think that the experience of disobedience at this young age will not turn into more engaged patterns of disobedience as young people make their way in a world increasingly disrupted by climate change ?
And why would we , their parents and grandparents , not be standing alongside them at that point ?
The Power of Us Building greater @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lives of everyone in the UK .
This is the goal of inclusive capitalism : using money and investment as a force for good , to create real jobs and better infrastructure to transform the UK ’ s cities and towns and tackle the biggest issues of our times such as housing , climate change and ageing demographics .
It ’ s something businesses , communities and individuals can all get behind and work together to achieve – and it ’ s why Telegraph Spark has teamed up with Legal & General @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign that aims to identify the challenges facing society , then use some of the UK ’ s brightest , most innovative thinkers to help solve them .
The Power of Us : the future is in your hands .
How utterly absurd !
The world is in far better shape than it has ever been .
Life expectancy has doubled throughout the world in the last century : Deaths resulting from famine has dropped to record low levels : Crop yields have rocketed since the 1960s : Contrary to the misleading impression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from malaria are much lower than they were , even as recently as 2000 : In richer countries , contrary to popular narrative , outdoor air pollution has fallen sharply since the 1970s : And thanks to economic growth , the number of people in extreme poverty across the world has plummeted .
The only exception is Sub-Saharan Africa , which has been left behind in the growth game : And last but not least , most of the world can now read and write , for the first time in history .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be immensely proud .
And they have all been made possible by modern economic society , itself based on fossil fuels and all of the other things Jonathon Porritt seems to despise .
Children these days would be horrified if they had to grow up in the conditions of 50 or 100 years ago .
But the younger generation has always been idealistic , untinged by reality .
Like we did , they will eventually grow up .
It seems Porritt never did though .
As for the increasingly woke Telegraph , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to promote this nonsense .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
The Telegraph have prostituted themselves with this latest advertising feature, written by the eco-loon. Jonathon Porrit:
The righteous anger of our younger generations over decades of ignoring climate change must be the catalyst for long-term action
Jonathon Porritt
Author and environmentalist
There are many reasons why young people today may feel they’ve got the short end of the intergenerational straw. But today’s climate emergency provides the starkest – and most morally reprehensible – justification for any potential grievances that young people may have.
Consider for a moment two disconnected data points regarding the year 2100. The projected life expectancy of a 10-year-old girl in the UK today is 90, predicts the Office for National Statistics. So a very significant number of them will still be alive in 2100.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average sea levels will have risen by no less than a metre by 2100. That’s the best case. You probably don’t want to think too much about the worst case. That’s still 80 years away.
Climate change is already ravaging the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the planet. We all know 2020 has been a terrible year – and that’s not just because of Covid-19.
Unprecedented change: Wildfires dominated headlines across the world in 2020 Credit: Getty
Unprecedented wildfires in Australia, California, Oregon, Brazil, even the Arctic Circle. Appalling flooding in China, India and Bangladesh. The worst-ever hurricane season in the Atlantic. The second worst year on record for melting Arctic sea ice. I could go on. The disasters, assuredly, will be on a rising scale, not just to 2100 but well into the next century. And if we continue to do next to nothing about it, it will be a great deal worse.
This is the backdrop to the rising anger of so many young people. At the UN’s Climate Action Summit in 2019, Swedish activist Greta Thunberg expressed this as follows: “You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal-clear. How dare you continue to look away, and come here saying that you’re doing enough when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight. You are failing us. But young people are starting to understand your betrayal.”
The disasters will be on a rising scale and if we continue to do next to nothing about it, it will be a great deal worse Jonathon Porritt
I saw that as the first salvo in what I believe will become a long-drawn-out cry of intergenerational rage. That phenomenon will become one of the most significant factors in the climate debate – not least as that kind of rage will be so important in sustaining young people’s hopes.
When schoolchildren go on strike, this itself is a form of civil disobedience. And why would anyone think that the experience of disobedience at this young age will not turn into more engaged patterns of disobedience as young people make their way in a world increasingly disrupted by climate change?
And why would we, their parents and grandparents, not be standing alongside them at that point?
The Power of Us
Building greater, more sustainable economic growth can improve the lives of everyone in the UK.
This is the goal of inclusive capitalism: using money and investment as a force for good, to create real jobs and better infrastructure to transform the UK’s cities and towns and tackle the biggest issues of our times such as housing, climate change and ageing demographics.
It’s something businesses, communities and individuals can all get behind and work together to achieve – and it’s why Telegraph Spark has teamed up with Legal & General for The Power of Us, a campaign that aims to identify the challenges facing society, then use some of the UK’s brightest, most innovative thinkers to help solve them.
The Power of Us: the future is in your hands.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/inclusive-capitalism/climate-change-rage/
‘The long drawn-out cry of intergenerational rage’ ?
How utterly absurd! The world is in far better shape than it has ever been.
Life expectancy has doubled throughout the world in the last century:
Undernourishment continues to fall:
Deaths resulting from famine has dropped to record low levels:
Crop yields have rocketed since the 1960s:
Contrary to the misleading impression put out by the Lancet, deaths from malaria are much lower than they were, even as recently as 2000:
In richer countries, contrary to popular narrative, outdoor air pollution has fallen sharply since the 1970s:
And thanks to economic growth, the number of people in extreme poverty across the world has plummeted. The only exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which has been left behind in the growth game:
And last but not least, most of the world can now read and write, for the first time in history.
These are all things of which we should be immensely proud. And they have all been made possible by modern economic society, itself based on fossil fuels and all of the other things Jonathon Porritt seems to despise.
Children these days would be horrified if they had to grow up in the conditions of 50 or 100 years ago. But the younger generation has always been idealistic, untinged by reality.
Like we did, they will eventually grow up. It seems Porritt never did though.
As for the increasingly woke Telegraph, shame on them for taking the money to promote this nonsense.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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December 19, 2020 at 05:36AM