iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-26--COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from

COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic .
While it is clearly a serious threat , one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic and hence government policy .
Much of the concern in the UK resulted from a non-peer reviewed study published by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College ( Ferguson et al 2020 [ 1 ] ) .
In this article , I examine whether data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship – arguably the most useful data set available – support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study .
I find that it does not do so .
The likely fatality rates for age groups from 60 upwards , which account for the vast bulk of projected deaths , appear to be much lower than those in the Ferguson et al .
study .
Metrics for COVID-19 ’ s fatality rate and their estimation The fatality rate from infection ( IFR ) , by age group , is a key parameter in determining how serious a threat the COVID-19 pandemic represents .
Unfortunately , the IFR is difficult to determine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fatality rate for cases where the COVID-19 virus can be shown , by a standard test , to be present , whether or not there are any symptoms .
This is referred to as the true case fatality rate ( tCFR ) .
The tCFR will overestimate the IFR , since a proportion of people who actually have been infected may show no viral presence when tested , either because they have already fought off and cleared an infection without any noticeable symptoms , or perhaps because they have pre-existing immunity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a sample of people without regard to whether they show symptoms , the tCFR may provide a reasonable , albeit somewhat biased high , estimate of the IFR .
However , determining tCFR is not simple either , since in most cases infected people with no or mild symptoms will not be tested for COVID-19 .
Attempts have nevertheless been made to estimate tCFR by adjusting estimates of the CFR based on symptomatic cases only ( sCFR ) , by adjusting for the non-random nature of testing , and also for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being known for some time .
The Ferguson et al .
study used estimates of the IFR [ 2 ] from another paper from the same team , Verity et al .
( 2020 ) [ 3 ] , which had been published a few days earlier on 13 March .
Very helpfully , Verity et al.
, unlike Ferguson et al.
, published the computer code and data that they used .
The Verity et al .
CFR estimates were derived primarily from Chinese data , which reflected non-random testing .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality , tCFR estimates ) by adjusting their CFR estimates using infection prevalence data for expatriates evacuated from Wuhan , all of whom were tested for COVID-19 infection .
This approach involves very large uncertainties .
An alternative approach to estimating the tCFR , as a proxy for the IFR , is to use data from a large sample of people , all of whom were tested for the presence of the virus without regard to whether they showed any symptoms , with all who tested positive subsequently being isolated and the case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While the sample of expatriates evacuated from Wuhan is too small for this purpose , [ 4 ] occupants of the Diamond Princess cruise ship do provide a suitable such sample .
[ 5 ] Moreover , the Diamond Princess sample has the advantage that it consists mainly of people from high income countries , and those requiring hospitalisation were treated in such countries .
The Diamond Princess sample may well represent the best available evidence regarding tCFR for older age groups , who are most at risk .
Verity et al @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Diamond Princess , but did not use sCFR or tCFR estimates from them for their main CFR and IFR estimates .
[ 6 ] When Verity et al .
was prepared , the final death toll was not known .
The data available only ran to 5 March 2020 , at which point 7 passengers had died .
The authors therefore used a fitted probability distribution for the delay from testing positive to dying to estimate that those deaths would represent 56 % of the eventual death toll .
They accordingly therefore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 12.5 deaths .
Here , I adopt the same death rate model and use the same data set , but brought up to date .
By 21 March the number of deaths had barely changed , increasing from 7 to 8 .
Of those 8 deaths , 3 are reported to have been in their 70s and 4 in their 80s .
I allocate the remaining , unknown age , person pro rata between those two age groups .
As at 21 March the Verity et al .
model estimates that 96 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred , so we can scale up to 100 % , giving an estimated ultimate death toll of 8.34 , allocated as to 3.58 to the 70-79 age group and 4.77 to the 80+ age group .
Accordingly , the Verity et al central estimate for the Diamond Princess death toll , of 12.5 eventual deaths , is 50 % too high .
This necessarily means that the estimates of tCFR and sCFR they derived from it are too high by the same proportion .
The Diamond Princess dataset was published by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NIID ) .
I use the second version published on 21 February [ 7 ] , which gives detailed data for 619 confirmed cases , updating it for subsequent test results .
[ 8 ] Verity used the original 19 February version of NIID , which gave data for 531 confirmed cases , although they did update it for subsequent test results .
The entire set of passengers and crew , totalling 3711 individuals , was tested for COVID-19 .
Some 706 ( 19.0 % ) ultimately had positive test results , of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for 619 of them ) 51 % were asymptomatic .
The infection rate varied between 10.0 % for ages under 30 years to 24.5 % for ages 60+ years .
The age-distribution was only known for cases included in the NIID data .
Verity et al .
assumed that the age distribution for the overall total of 706 confirmed cases was the same as for the 531 NIID reported cases that they used .
I do the same , but using the later NIID data , with 619 reported cases .
On that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people in respectively the 60–69 , 70–79 and 80+ key age groups had positive test results .
Recall that tCFR is the eventual death toll divided by the total numbers testing positive .
My overall tCFR central estimates from the Diamond Princess 70+ age groups , where all the deaths are taken to have occurred , are 2.54 % overall ( 8.34/328.5 ) , [ 9 ] with a breakdown of 1.34 % for ages 70-79 ( 3.58/266.9 ) and 8.04 % ( 4.77/61.6 ) for ages 80+ .
For the 60–69 age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to make a crude median estimate of the tCFR , by calculating what it would need to be for there to be a 50 % probability that no 60-69 year-old has died , as appears to have been the case .
The thus-implied tCFR is 0.34 % .
There were too few Diamond Princess occupants in age groups below 60 with positive test results to provide any useful information about the COVID-19 tCFR for those groups .
It appears that in about 30 % of symptomatic cases the standard RT-PCR test for COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patient is in fact infected .
[ 10 ] There is no evidence of any COVID-19 related deaths among Diamond Princess occupants who tested negative , which would be consistent with a lower viral load being associated with a lower probability both of a positive RT-PCR test result and of eventual death .
The false-negative rate may be slightly lower for Diamond Princess occupants , a few of whom may have been retested or tested by a more reliable method where they had typical COVID-19 symptoms but an initially negative RT-PCR test result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the proportion of asymptomatic infected cases that are not detected by a RT-PCR test will be somewhat higher than the 30 % estimated for symptomatic cases .
We accordingly adjust all the tCFR ratios estimated from Diamond Princess case data down by 30 % on account of false-negative test results .
The observed deaths of Diamond Princess occupants occurred over a 45 day period , during which a non-negligible percentage of old people would be expected to die from non-COVID-19 related causes .
I have accordingly deducted from the adjusted tCFR ratios an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups , based on UK age-stratified 2018 death rates , [ 11 ] to arrive at estimates of deaths caused by COVID-19 .
There are arguments for the non-COVID death rates being either higher or lower than those for the UK population of the same age , but using those death statistics appears to be a reasonable first approximation .
Comparing the Ferguson et al .
UK and Diamond Princess based fatality rate estimates The results of the foregoing analysis are set out in Table 1 .
The key finding is that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups , which must if anything overestimate their IFRs , are far lower than the corresponding IFR estimates used by Ferguson et al .
in the study adopted by the UK government .
[ 12 ] Those age groups account for the vast bulk of projected deaths .
For people aged 60–69 , the Ferguson et al IFR estimate is 19.4 times as high as the best tCFR estimate based on Diamond Princess data , for the 70–79 age group it is 8.3 times as high , and for the 80+ age group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Table 1 : True Case Fatality Rates estimated from the latest Diamond Princess data compared with Infection Fatality Rates per Ferguson et al .
2019 , used by the UK government Note : An all-causes tCFR of 0.34 % ( and hence 0.69 notional ultimate fatalities ) is assumed for age-group 60-69 despite there being no actual fatalities in that age group ( see text ) .
Expected non-COVID-19 fatalities are based on UK 2018 death rates by age group applied to the DP positive test cases , scaled by the 45 day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and divided by the same 0.96 factor used to scale up the 8 actual deaths .
DP= Diamond Princess .
Based on the Diamond Princess data , the COVID-19 fatality rates by age-group assumed by Ferguson et al .
appear to be far too pessimistic for all 60+ age groups , where the vast bulk of fatalities are projected to occur .
It is quite possible that they are also too pessimistic for younger age groups as well , but unfortunately the Diamond Princess data are uninformative about death rates below age 60 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 60+ age groups the projected excess death rates , based on Diamond Princess case data , caused by COVID-19 is substantially lower than the underlying non-COVID-19 annual death rate .
Even assuming , very pessimistically , that there is no overlap between the two , and that the same proportion of each age group becomes infected , projected COVID-19 related deaths from an epidemic in which the vast bulk of the population became infected with COVID-19 are only 9 % of expected annual non-COVID deaths for the 60–69 age group .
[ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the proportion is 20 % , and for the 80+ age group it is 26 % .
Relative to the expected non-COVID deaths over two years , the approximate period during which very onerous restrictions are projected to be in force in the UK , these COVID-19 excess death proportions would each be reduced by almost half .
In practice , a high proportion of people killed by COVID-19 will have serious underlying health conditions , and would be much more likely than average to die from non-COVID-19 causes .

Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc.
Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis |
By Nic Lewis
Introduction
There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic and hence government policy. Much of the concern in the UK resulted from a non-peer reviewed study published by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al 2020[1]). In this article, I examine whether data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship – arguably the most useful data set available – support the fatality rate assumptions underlying the Imperial study. I find that it does not do so. The likely fatality rates for age groups from 60 upwards, which account for the vast bulk of projected deaths, appear to be much lower than those in the Ferguson et al. study.
Metrics for COVID-19’s fatality rate and their estimation
The fatality rate from infection (IFR), by age group, is a key parameter in determining how serious a threat the COVID-19 pandemic represents. Unfortunately, the IFR is difficult to determine. It is more practical to estimate the fatality rate for cases where the COVID-19 virus can be shown, by a standard test, to be present, whether or not there are any symptoms. This is referred to as the true case fatality rate (tCFR). The tCFR will overestimate the IFR, since a proportion of people who actually have been infected may show no viral presence when tested, either because they have already fought off and cleared an infection without any noticeable symptoms, or perhaps because they have pre-existing immunity. Nevertheless, where testing has been applied to a sample of people without regard to whether they show symptoms, the tCFR may provide a reasonable, albeit somewhat biased high, estimate of the IFR.
However, determining tCFR is not simple either, since in most cases infected people with no or mild symptoms will not be tested for COVID-19. Attempts have nevertheless been made to estimate tCFR by adjusting estimates of the CFR based on symptomatic cases only (sCFR), by adjusting for the non-random nature of testing, and also for the outcome of positive test result cases not being known for some time.
The Imperial studies
The Ferguson et al. study used estimates of the IFR[2] from another paper from the same team, Verity et al. (2020)[3], which had been published a few days earlier on 13 March. Very helpfully, Verity et al., unlike Ferguson et al., published the computer code and data that they used.
The Verity et al. CFR estimates were derived primarily from Chinese data, which reflected non-random testing. The authors obtained age-stratified IFR estimates (in reality, tCFR estimates) by adjusting their CFR estimates using infection prevalence data for expatriates evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested for COVID-19 infection. This approach involves very large uncertainties.
An alternative approach to estimating the tCFR, as a proxy for the IFR, is to use data from a large sample of people, all of whom were tested for the presence of the virus without regard to whether they showed any symptoms, with all who tested positive subsequently being isolated and the case outcome recorded. I use that approach. While the sample of expatriates evacuated from Wuhan is too small for this purpose,[4] occupants of the Diamond Princess cruise ship do provide a suitable such sample.[5] Moreover, the Diamond Princess sample has the advantage that it consists mainly of people from high income countries, and those requiring hospitalisation were treated in such countries.
The Diamond Princess sample may well represent the best available evidence regarding tCFR for older age groups, who are most at risk. Verity et al (2020) did analyse data from the Diamond Princess, but did not use sCFR or tCFR estimates from them for their main CFR and IFR estimates.[6]
The Diamond Princess death toll
When Verity et al. was prepared, the final death toll was not known. The data available only ran to 5 March 2020, at which point 7 passengers had died. The authors therefore used a fitted probability distribution for the delay from testing positive to dying to estimate that those deaths would represent 56% of the eventual death toll. They accordingly therefore estimated the tCFR using a scaled figure of 12.5 deaths.
Here, I adopt the same death rate model and use the same data set, but brought up to date. By 21 March the number of deaths had barely changed, increasing from 7 to 8. Of those 8 deaths, 3 are reported to have been in their 70s and 4 in their 80s. I allocate the remaining, unknown age, person pro rata between those two age groups. As at 21 March the Verity et al. model estimates that 96% of the eventual deaths should have occurred, so we can scale up to 100%, giving an estimated ultimate death toll of 8.34, allocated as to 3.58 to the 70-79 age group and 4.77 to the 80+ age group.
Accordingly, the Verity et al central estimate for the Diamond Princess death toll, of 12.5 eventual deaths, is 50% too high. This necessarily means that the estimates of tCFR and sCFR they derived from it are too high by the same proportion.
Numbers testing positive
The Diamond Princess dataset was published by the Japan National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID). I use the second version published on 21 February[7], which gives detailed data for 619 confirmed cases, updating it for subsequent test results.[8] Verity used the original 19 February version of NIID, which gave data for 531 confirmed cases, although they did update it for subsequent test results.
The entire set of passengers and crew, totalling 3711 individuals, was tested for COVID-19. Some 706 (19.0%) ultimately had positive test results, of whom (based on the NIID data for 619 of them) 51% were asymptomatic. The infection rate varied between 10.0% for ages under 30 years to 24.5% for ages 60+ years. The age-distribution was only known for cases included in the NIID data. Verity et al. assumed that the age distribution for the overall total of 706 confirmed cases was the same as for the 531 NIID reported cases that they used. I do the same, but using the later NIID data, with 619 reported cases. On that basis, 201.9, 266.9 and 61.6 people in respectively the 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ key age groups had positive test results.
tCFR estimate
Recall that tCFR is the eventual death toll divided by the total numbers testing positive.
My overall tCFR central estimates from the Diamond Princess 70+ age groups, where all the deaths are taken to have occurred, are 2.54% overall (8.34/328.5),[9] with a breakdown of 1.34% for ages 70-79 (3.58/266.9) and 8.04% (4.77/61.6) for ages 80+. For the 60–69 age group, there are sufficient test-positive occupants to make a crude median estimate of the tCFR, by calculating what it would need to be for there to be a 50% probability that no 60-69 year-old has died, as appears to have been the case. The thus-implied tCFR is 0.34%. There were too few Diamond Princess occupants in age groups below 60 with positive test results to provide any useful information about the COVID-19 tCFR for those groups.
Adjustments for false negatives and underlying death rates
It appears that in about 30% of symptomatic cases the standard RT-PCR test for COVID-19 infection gives a negative result when the patient is in fact infected.[10] There is no evidence of any COVID-19 related deaths among Diamond Princess occupants who tested negative, which would be consistent with a lower viral load being associated with a lower probability both of a positive RT-PCR test result and of eventual death. The false-negative rate may be slightly lower for Diamond Princess occupants, a few of whom may have been retested or tested by a more reliable method where they had typical COVID-19 symptoms but an initially negative RT-PCR test result. However, it seems likely that the proportion of asymptomatic infected cases that are not detected by a RT-PCR test will be somewhat higher than the 30% estimated for symptomatic cases. We accordingly adjust all the tCFR ratios estimated from Diamond Princess case data down by 30% on account of false-negative test results.
The observed deaths of Diamond Princess occupants occurred over a 45 day period, during which a non-negligible percentage of old people would be expected to die from non-COVID-19 related causes. I have accordingly deducted from the adjusted tCFR ratios an allowance for non-COVID-19 deaths for 70+ age groups, based on UK age-stratified 2018 death rates,[11] to arrive at estimates of deaths caused by COVID-19. There are arguments for the non-COVID death rates being either higher or lower than those for the UK population of the same age, but using those death statistics appears to be a reasonable first approximation.
Comparing the Ferguson et al. UK and Diamond Princess based fatality rate estimates
The results of the foregoing analysis are set out in Table 1. The key finding is that the estimated tCFRs for Diamond Princess 60+ age groups, which must if anything overestimate their IFRs, are far lower than the corresponding IFR estimates used by Ferguson et al. in the study adopted by the UK government.[12] Those age groups account for the vast bulk of projected deaths. For people aged 60–69, the Ferguson et al IFR estimate is 19.4 times as high as the best tCFR estimate based on Diamond Princess data, for the 70–79 age group it is 8.3 times as high, and for the 80+ age group it is 2.1 times as high.
Table 1: True Case Fatality Rates estimated from the latest Diamond Princess data compared with Infection Fatality Rates per Ferguson et al. 2019, used by the UK government
Note: An all-causes tCFR of 0.34% (and hence 0.69 notional ultimate fatalities) is assumed for age-group 60-69 despite there being no actual fatalities in that age group (see text). Expected non-COVID-19 fatalities are based on UK 2018 death rates by age group applied to the DP positive test cases, scaled by the 45 day period over which COVID-19 deaths were recorded and divided by the same 0.96 factor used to scale up the 8 actual deaths. DP= Diamond Princess.
Discussion
Based on the Diamond Princess data, the COVID-19 fatality rates by age-group assumed by Ferguson et al. appear to be far too pessimistic for all 60+ age groups, where the vast bulk of fatalities are projected to occur. It is quite possible that they are also too pessimistic for younger age groups as well, but unfortunately the Diamond Princess data are uninformative about death rates below age 60.
It is notable that for all the 60+ age groups the projected excess death rates, based on Diamond Princess case data, caused by COVID-19 is substantially lower than the underlying non-COVID-19 annual death rate. Even assuming, very pessimistically, that there is no overlap between the two, and that the same proportion of each age group becomes infected, projected COVID-19 related deaths from an epidemic in which the vast bulk of the population became infected with COVID-19 are only 9% of expected annual non-COVID deaths for the 60–69 age group.[13] For the 70–79 age group, the proportion is 20%, and for the 80+ age group it is 26%. Relative to the expected non-COVID deaths over two years, the approximate period during which very onerous restrictions are projected to be in force in the UK, these COVID-19 excess death proportions would each be reduced by almost half. In practice, a high proportion of people killed by COVID-19 will have serious underlying health conditions, and would be much more likely than average to die from non-COVID-19 causes.
Nicholas Lewis 25 March 2020
Originally posted here


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-26--Lew on Truth, Conspiracy Theorising, and Everything

[ Read Richard ’ s first .
This one is boring . ]
Bristol University ’ s news site is announcing the publication of a “ book ” ( their description ) by Professors Lewandowsky and Cook on conspiracy theorising .
The link provided by Bristol University to download the “ book ” isn ’ t working , but Mirage News , which reproduces the University puff in its entirety has a link here : Got that ?
A real conspiracy is one that is discovered through healthy skepticism , while a false one is one that is discovered by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theorists .
Unhealthy scepticism , probably .
With a “ c. ” Like what we do .
The “ book , ” shorn of covers and title page , is nine pages long .
In this very short guide to debunking conspiracy theories , there is very little on real conspiracy theories and no less than seven statements concerning climate change scepticism : 1 .
Exposure to conspiracy theories decreases people ’ s intentions to engage in politics or to reduce their carbon footprint .
2 .
Conspiracy theories may be deployed as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The rhetoric of climate denial is filled with incoherence… 3.Incoherence is one attribute of conspiratorial thinking , but it does not follow that climate denial is irrational—on the contrary , denialist rhetoric is an effective political strategy to delay climate action by undermining people ’ s perception of the strength of scientific evidence .
In confirmation , people selectively appeal to a conspiracy among scientists to explain away a scientific consensus when their political ideology compels them to do so—but not when the scientific consensus is of no relevance to their politics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that humans are causing global warming is often the result of conspiratorial thinking rather than a careful weighing of scientific evidence .
5 .
When climate deniers are presented with information about climate change , their most common response is conspiratorial in nature .
6 .
However , climate denial isn ’ t just associated with climate-themed conspiracy theories—rather , people who deny climate science are more likely to endorse conspiracy theories in other topics as well .
7 .
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure… For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was reduced by a simple intervention that encouraged people to ask four questions about material before sharing it..
Points 2 , 3 , 4 , and 6 are supported by references to papers by Lewandowsky et al .
Forget 9/11 and the Kennedy and Martin Luther King assassinations .
Conspiracy theorising is a niche cottage industry to Lewandowsky and Cook , intimately linked to climate denial .
“ Persecuted Victim , ” “ Nefarious Intent , ” – all their carefully assembled characteristics of conspiratorial thinking are there , repeated word for word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Alice in Wonderland ” papers .
Forget the Skripals , the DNC emails / Crowdstrike / FBI story and the Cambridge professor on a million dollar CIA retainer who just couldn ’ t help bumping in to people who happened to be working for the Trump election campaign .
It ’ s all about climate denial .
Occasionally a new fact is allowed a look in .
Under the heading “ Immune to Evidence ” we get this : Here ’ s where Lewandowsky ’ s precept : “ real conspiracies get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accounts while carefully considering available evidence ” comes in handy .
The FBI didn ’ t exonerate Hillary , they simply decided not to prosecute , possibly because of a certain bias in her favour , highlighted by a senior FBI official asserting that “ We ” would do everything to prevent Trump from being elected .
You ’ d have to be “ immune to evidence ” to believe that the FBI was not involved in a conspiracy .
And of course Lewandowsky and Cook are immune to evidence , on this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , they seem to be immune to the fact that the world is not agog to hear their recipe for countering the plague of conspiracy theorising .
Lewandowsky had his chance in chapter ten of “ Conspiracy Theories and the People Who Believe Them ” to present the truth about conspiracy theorising , instead of which he recounted the conspiracy ( by Steve McIntyre , Paul Matthews , Barry Woods , me , and others ) to get his “ Recursive Fury ” paper retracted .
There ’ s one novelty in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University describes as a “ book ” ) and that ’ s point 3 mentioned above : And the reference here is to : Lewandowsky , S. ( 2020 ) .
“ Hannah Arendt and the contemporary social construction of conspiracy theorists.
” Manuscript Submitted for Publication .
After four papers demonstrating that climate denialists are irrational -two degrees short of a secular trend – Lew has come up with a paper demonstrating the opposite : that they may be motivated by the perfectly rational observation that their “ rhetoric ” is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , in its methodology and structure , a carbon copy of “ Moon Hoax , ” which demonstrated that climate denial was caused by irrational psychological defects such as feelings of persecution and an inability to think straight .
The abstract starts by presenting grandiose programme for retooling society ( or shaping tomorrow ’ s world : ) This is followed by one quote from Hannah Arendt and two from Donald Trump .
Hannah gets a mention in the title of the paper and Donald doesn ’ t , so you know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the philosopher who analysed Nazism and anti-semitism , and not the elected president of the United States .
The lines of battle have been drawn up .
By Lew .
In a scientific paper .
It ’ s Us ( anti-Nazis ) versus Him .
[ We all have our favourite Trump quotes .
Mine is “ If I ’ d listened to John Bolton , we ’ d be on World War Six by Now.
” What a pity Obama didn ’ t make a similar observation about Hillary . ]
Pages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s political journey from reasonable leftist scepticism about the justifications for the Iraq war to a far right wholesale acceptation of the CIA version of the downing of Malaysian flight MH17 .
Pages 6-11 discuss post modernism and post truth , culminating in this observation : How does this banal finding that Democrats and Republicans disagree about the value of a university education “ support ” Lew ’ s opinion that “ the very notion of evidence and truth itself may be compromised ” ?
Easy .
Republicans are wrong to think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lew knows that they ’ re wrong – he works at one , for Gaia ’ s sake .
Half the people think that folks like Lew are having a negative effect , therefore truth itself may be compromised by shock and chaos .
It follows as night follows day , because the only people qualified to examine the question are people like Lew , who work at universities and therefore have the monopoly of opinion in “ the literature ” as to what effect universities etc .
And here ’ s how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) By interviewing 195 people on-line for ten minutes ( on average . )
Bollocks .
In the far off days when I did market research , we might have considered 200 a minimum sample size to determine whether house persons preferred soap A to soap B – just .
But they were real human beings , interviewed in the street on their way to the shops to buy soap A or soap B .
And their responses weren ’ t expected to reveal the truth about Life , Truth , Shock , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s professional respondents , on the other hand were recruited by Amazon for a measly $ 1.10 to answer questions on-line ( in ten minutes ) on : ..basic demographics ( age and gender ) then , on a seven-point response scale ranging from “ Strongly disagree ” to “ Strongly agree ” , with the midpoint “ Neither agree nor disagree : ” ( a ) Political attitudes measured by a subset of 5 items from a scale developed by Thomas Scotto and Jason Reifler for their ESRC project “ Public Opinion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” ( b ) The presumed knowability of truth measured by presenting 3 quotes from public figures who questioned that truth or that facts could be unequivocally ascertained .
The first two statements were made by Katie Hopkins , a columnist for UK tabloids and the third statement was made by Donald Trump ’ s attorney , Rudy Giuliani .
Participants indicated their agreement or disagreement with each statement .
A further two items queried the presumed knowability of truth directly .
( c ) Conspiracism was measured using 5 items taken from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These items do not target belief in specific conspiracies but probe a broader , likely dispositional , tendency to engage in conspiracist cognition ( d ) Reliance on sources of knowledge was measured by 4 items developed by my team .
( e ) Need for chaos ( “ Need ” ) was measured using 4 items from the scale developed by Petersen et al .
( 2018 ) .
( f ) Reliance on intuition as a source of knowledge was measured using 5 items developed by my team .
The questionnaire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] aspects of scientific consensus .
People first indicated their perceived scientific consensus ( using a percentage scale ) for the link between HIV and AIDS , the link between CO2 and climate change , and the safety and efficacy of vaccinations .
At the end of the questionnaire participants were presented with accurate information about the scientific consensus ( e.g.
, “ Virtually all medical scientists agree that HIV causes AIDS ” ) , followed by the question “ How much do you think each of the following reasons contributes to this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accompanied by the 6 response options in Table 2 .
Options were presented together on the same screen and participants could choose any number of options on a 5-point scale ranging from “ Not a reason ” to “ The only reason ” .
After all items in Table 1 had been presented , participants were again asked to indicate their age , followed by a question probing how much attention they paid .
Any participants who indicated that they were not “ paying much attention ” or did not want their data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been eliminated ( none did ) .
Of course they didn ’ t , you berk .
Otherwise they wouldn ’ t have got their $ 1:10 .
One dollar and ten fucking cents .
That ’ s what Professor Lew paid his informants to reveal the truth about the nature of conspiracy theorising , their need for chaos , the presumed knowability of truth , and hence the scientific path towards eliminating misinformation in public discourse , all in ten minutes .
The rest of the paper ( pp 15–24 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basis of significant-at-the-0.5-level correlations , that if you ask 195 normal people a series of stupid questions about need for chaos , scientific agreement , a dispositional tendency to engage in conspiracist cognition , and whether they agree with Katie Hopkins and Rudy Giuliani , all on-line in an average of ten minutes , you can get any results you want , with correlation coefficients of 0.2-0.3 or so .
This shitty pre-published article can be stopped .
The supplemental materials seem to be here Lew has contributed to a comment on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Is Conspiracy Theorising Irrational ?
” here .
How does he find time to teach cognitive psychology ?

[Read Richard’s first. This one is boring.]
Bristol University’s news site is announcing the publication of a “book” (their description) by Professors Lewandowsky and Cook on conspiracy theorising. The link provided by Bristol University to download the “book” isn’t working, but Mirage News, which reproduces the University puff in its entirety has a link here:
Author Professor Stephan Lewandowsky explains: “Conspiracy theories attempt to explain events as the secretive plots of powerful people. While conspiracy theories are not typically supported by evidence, this doesn’t stop them from blossoming… While actual conspiracies do exist they are rarely discovered through the methods of conspiracy theorists. Rather, real conspiracies get discovered through conventional thinking—healthy skepticism of official accounts while carefully considering available evidence and being committed to internal consistency. This handbook helps explain why conspiracy theories are so popular, and how to identify the traits of conspiratorial thinking, and lists effective debunking strategies.”
Got that? A real conspiracy is one that is discovered through healthy skepticism, while a false one is one that is discovered by, er, the methods of conspiracy theorists. Unhealthy scepticism, probably. With a “c.” Like what we do.
The “book,” shorn of covers and title page, is nine pages long. In this very short guide to debunking conspiracy theories, there is very little on real conspiracy theories and no less than seven statements concerning climate change scepticism:
1. Exposure to conspiracy theories decreases people’s intentions to engage in politics or to reduce their carbon footprint. 2. Conspiracy theories may be deployed as a rhetorical tool to escape inconvenient conclusions. The rhetoric of climate denial is filled with incoherence… 3.Incoherence is one attribute of conspiratorial thinking, but it does not follow that climate denial is irrational—on the contrary, denialist rhetoric is an effective political strategy to delay climate action by undermining people’s perception of the strength of scientific evidence. In confirmation, people selectively appeal to a conspiracy among scientists to explain away a scientific consensus when their political ideology compels them to do so—but not when the scientific consensus is of no relevance to their politics. 4. Rejecting the scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming is often the result of conspiratorial thinking rather than a careful weighing of scientific evidence. 5. When climate deniers are presented with information about climate change, their most common response is conspiratorial in nature. 6. However, climate denial isn’t just associated with climate-themed conspiracy theories—rather, people who deny climate science are more likely to endorse conspiracy theories in other topics as well. 7. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure… For example, sharing of conspiratorial climate-denial posts on Facebook was reduced by a simple intervention that encouraged people to ask four questions about material before sharing it..
Points 2, 3, 4, and 6 are supported by references to papers by Lewandowsky et al. Forget 9/11 and the Kennedy and Martin Luther King assassinations. Conspiracy theorising is a niche cottage industry to Lewandowsky and Cook, intimately linked to climate denial. “Persecuted Victim,” “Nefarious Intent,” – all their carefully assembled characteristics of conspiratorial thinking are there, repeated word for word from their “Moon Hoax” and “Alice in Wonderland” papers. Forget the Skripals, the DNC emails / Crowdstrike / FBI story and the Cambridge professor on a million dollar CIA retainer who just couldn’t help bumping in to people who happened to be working for the Trump election campaign. It’s all about climate denial.
Occasionally a new fact is allowed a look in. Under the heading “Immune to Evidence” we get this:
Conspiracy theories are inherently self-sealing—evidence that counters a theory is re-interpreted as originating from the conspiracy. [supported by references to papers from 1999, 2007 and 2009] This reflects the belief that the stronger the evidence against a conspiracy (e.g., the FBI exonerating a politician from allegations of misusing a personal email server), the more the conspirators must want people to believe their version of events (e.g., the FBI was part of the conspiracy to protect that politician).
Here’s where Lewandowsky’s precept: “real conspiracies get discovered through conventional thinking—healthy skepticism of official accounts while carefully considering available evidence” comes in handy. The FBI didn’t exonerate Hillary, they simply decided not to prosecute, possibly because of a certain bias in her favour, highlighted by a senior FBI official asserting that “We” would do everything to prevent Trump from being elected. You’d have to be “immune to evidence” to believe that the FBI was not involved in a conspiracy.
And of course Lewandowsky and Cook are immune to evidence, on this and on many other subjects. For example, they seem to be immune to the fact that the world is not agog to hear their recipe for countering the plague of conspiracy theorising. Lewandowsky had his chance in chapter ten of “Conspiracy Theories and the People Who Believe Them” to present the truth about conspiracy theorising, instead of which he recounted the conspiracy (by Steve McIntyre, Paul Matthews, Barry Woods, me, and others) to get his “Recursive Fury” paper retracted.
There’s one novelty in this little pamphlet, (which Bristol University describes as a “book”) and that’s point 3 mentioned above:
Incoherence is one attribute of conspiratorial thinking, but it does not follow that climate denial is irrational—on the contrary, denialist rhetoric is an effective political strategy to delay climate action by undermining people’s perception of the strength of scientific evidence.
And the reference here is to:
Lewandowsky, S. (2020). “Hannah Arendt and the contemporary social construction of conspiracy theorists.” Manuscript Submitted for Publication.
After four papers demonstrating that climate denialists are irrational -two degrees short of a secular trend – Lew has come up with a paper demonstrating the opposite: that they may be motivated by the perfectly rational observation that their “rhetoric” is an “effective political strategy.” The paper is, in its methodology and structure, a carbon copy of “Moon Hoax,” which demonstrated that climate denial was caused by irrational psychological defects such as feelings of persecution and an inability to think straight.
The abstract starts by presenting grandiose programme for retooling society (or shaping tomorrow’s world:)
Exposure to conspiracy theories can have considerable adverse impact on society. I argue that scholars therefore have a responsibility to combat conspiracy theories and misinformation generally. Exercising this responsibility requires an understanding of the varied rhetorical roles of conspiracy theories. Here I focus on instances in which people reject unequivocal scientific evidence and invoke conspiracy theories, or radical anti-institutional positions, based on ideological imperatives. I argue that those positions do not always reflect true attitudes. Instead, people may deploy extreme rhetoric as a pragmatic tool of political expression. I investigate this possibility by focusing on the role of conspiracy theories in the rejection of science. Conspiracist cognition and rhetoric violate the epistemic standards that underpin science. Ironically, this violation of epistemic standards renders conspiracy theories useful as a rationally deployed tool that serves political purposes. I present a study that confirms that conspiracy theories can be deployed to support worldview-motivated denial of science. I provide suggestions how scholars can debunk or defang conspiratorial rhetoric.
This is followed by one quote from Hannah Arendt and two from Donald Trump. Hannah gets a mention in the title of the paper and Donald doesn’t, so you know who Lew’s rooting for – the philosopher who analysed Nazism and anti-semitism, and not the elected president of the United States. The lines of battle have been drawn up. By Lew. In a scientific paper. It’s Us (anti-Nazis) versus Him.
[We all have our favourite Trump quotes. Mine is “If I’d listened to John Bolton, we’d be on World War Six by Now.” What a pity Obama didn’t make a similar observation about Hillary.]
Pages 3-5 of the paper are about Lewandowsky’s political journey from reasonable leftist scepticism about the justifications for the Iraq war to a far right wholesale acceptation of the CIA version of the downing of Malaysian flight MH17. Pages 6-11 discuss post modernism and post truth, culminating in this observation:
The idea that the very notion of evidence and truth itself may be compromised by shock and chaos is supported by public opinion data, such as a Pew poll (July 2017) that showed that a majority of Republicans, by a 58% to 36% margin, considered colleges and universities to have a negative effect on the way things are going in the U.S. Among Democrats, opinion was split in reverse, with a 72% (positive) to 19% (negative) margin.
How does this banal finding that Democrats and Republicans disagree about the value of a university education “support” Lew’s opinion that “the very notion of evidence and truth itself may be compromised”? Easy. Republicans are wrong to think that universities have a negative effect. Lew knows that they’re wrong – he works at one, for Gaia’s sake. Half the people think that folks like Lew are having a negative effect, therefore truth itself may be compromised by shock and chaos. It follows as night follows day, because the only people qualified to examine the question are people like Lew, who work at universities and therefore have the monopoly of opinion in “the literature” as to what effect universities etc.
And here’s how he does it (page 13.) By interviewing 195 people on-line for ten minutes (on average.)
Bollocks. In the far off days when I did market research, we might have considered 200 a minimum sample size to determine whether house persons preferred soap A to soap B – just. But they were real human beings, interviewed in the street on their way to the shops to buy soap A or soap B. And their responses weren’t expected to reveal the truth about Life, Truth, Shock, Chaos, and Everything.
Lew’s professional respondents, on the other hand were recruited by Amazon for a measly $1.10 to answer questions on-line (in ten minutes) on:
..basic demographics (age and gender) then, on a seven-point response scale ranging from “Strongly disagree” to “Strongly agree”, with the midpoint “Neither agree nor disagree:”
(a) Political attitudes measured by a subset of 5 items from a scale developed by Thomas Scotto and Jason Reifler for their ESRC project “Public Opinion and the Syrian Crisis in Three Democracies”
(b) The presumed knowability of truth measured by presenting 3 quotes from public figures who questioned that truth or that facts could be unequivocally ascertained. The first two statements were made by Katie Hopkins, a columnist for UK tabloids and the third statement was made by Donald Trump’s attorney, Rudy Giuliani. Participants indicated their agreement or disagreement with each statement. A further two items queried the presumed knowability of truth directly.
(c) Conspiracism was measured using 5 items taken from Imho and Bruder (2014). These items do not target belief in specific conspiracies but probe a broader, likely dispositional, tendency to engage in conspiracist cognition
(d) Reliance on sources of knowledge was measured by 4 items developed by my team.
(e) Need for chaos (“Need”) was measured using 4 items from the scale developed by Petersen et al. (2018).
(f) Reliance on intuition as a source of knowledge was measured using 5 items developed by my team.
The questionnaire additionally examined two [surely three?] aspects of scientific consensus. People first indicated their perceived scientific consensus (using a percentage scale) for the link between HIV and AIDS, the link between CO2 and climate change, and the safety and efficacy of vaccinations. At the end of the questionnaire participants were presented with accurate information about the scientific consensus (e.g., “Virtually all medical scientists agree that HIV causes AIDS”), followed by the question “How much do you think each of the following reasons contributes to this scientific agreement?” The question was accompanied by the 6 response options in Table 2. Options were presented together on the same screen and participants could choose any number of options on a 5-point scale ranging from “Not a reason” to “The only reason”.
After all items in Table 1 had been presented, participants were again asked to indicate their age, followed by a question probing how much attention they paid. Any participants who indicated that they were not “paying much attention” or did not want their data to be used for other reasons would have been eliminated (none did).
Of course they didn’t, you berk. Otherwise they wouldn’t have got their $1:10.
One dollar and ten fucking cents. That’s what Professor Lew paid his informants to reveal the truth about the nature of conspiracy theorising, their need for chaos, the presumed knowability of truth, and hence the scientific path towards eliminating misinformation in public discourse, all in ten minutes. The rest of the paper (pp 15–24) is devoted to demonstrating, on the basis of significant-at-the-0.5-level correlations, that if you ask 195 normal people a series of stupid questions about need for chaos, scientific agreement, a dispositional tendency to engage in conspiracist cognition, and whether they agree with Katie Hopkins and Rudy Giuliani, all on-line in an average of ten minutes, you can get any results you want, with correlation coefficients of 0.2-0.3 or so.
This shitty pre-published article can be stopped. The supplemental materials seem to be here
including data and R code
coda:
Lew has contributed to a comment on a paper by our old friend Neil Levy “Is Conspiracy Theorising Irrational?” here. How does he find time to teach cognitive psychology?


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-26--Prosperity Foregone – What Are the Benefits?

Contributed by Robert Lyman 2020 .
Lyman ’ s bio can be read here .
In my recent commentary and @ @ @ @ @ and financial costs that climate policy has imposed on … Continue reading

Contributed by Robert Lyman 2020. Lyman’s bio can be read here.
In my recent commentary and PowerPoint presentation on the economic and financial costs that climate policy has imposed on … Continue reading
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March 25, 2020 at 07:30PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Business continuity and the Chinese virus #coronavirus

Early in 2001 , an international corporation ’ s chief financial officer conducted a business-continuity appraisal of the entire business .
All insurances were reviewed and brought up to date .
The pension fund was audited to make sure it could meet its obligations .
Health , safety and business-risk assessments of every kind were conducted .
The United States headquarters of the corporation were in a prominent New York skyscraper .
The cautious finance officer decided that if one of the many totalitarian regimes worldwide that hate democracy and , therefore , have a particular loathing for the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the building might be vulnerable .
At some cost , he turned in the lease and , notwithstanding some grumbling from the board , moved the entire operation to somewhere less prominent .
The building was No .
1 , World Trade Center .
The CFO was my brother-in-law , which is how I know the story .
As far as I know , it has not been published before .
For confidentiality , I shall not name the corporation , but you have heard of it .
Protecting any business , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apparently not immediate risk always comes at a price .
The arcane art of business continuity appraisal is to decide which risks are so potentially damaging to the corporation that they must be prepared for regardless of cost .
The CFO ’ s assessment was that the corporation might not recover if it lost its entire United States headquarters staff .
So he paid the cost and was proven right to have done so .
For various reasons , China is the source of most of the world ’ s recent pandemics .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as Taiwan and South Korea , have taken elaborate business-continuity steps to make sure that if yet another Chinese pandemic was loosed upon the world they would be able to prevent the loss of life and colossal economic damage that would occur if they were not prepared .
South Korea established the gold-standard procedure : test as widely as possible , isolate all carriers , and vigorously trace all their contacts .
The contact-tracing is done not only by making intensive use of cellphone data but also by recruiting an army of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The ruling Democratic Party in Seoul has now reaped its just reward for its foresight and competence .
In a general election with a record 66 % turnout , with all voters wearing masks , keeping well apart from one another and being temperature-tested as they approached the polling stations , the party has won the largest majority ever to be achieved by any party since democratic elections were first introduced on the current model in 1987 , a third of a century ago .
Most other nations , and in particular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing like so well prepared .
They failed to realize that the Chinese Communist regime was lying about every aspect of the pandemic ; they failed to notice that the World Health Organization , dominated by Communists , was repeating the Chinese lies rather than questioning them ; their pandemic-response teams had failed to ensure that they could cope with population-wide testing , isolation of carriers and contact-tracing ; and , when they had missed that bus , some of them dithered for weeks before imposing lockdowns , apparently unaware that not merely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to minimize the cost of a pandemic , in lives and in treasure .
At what point can lockdowns be lifted ?
As a rule of thumb , one should not lift a lockdown until the mean compound daily case-growth rate has fallen below 5 % ( and even that rate , if it were persisted in , would double the number of cases every two weeks ) .
In today ’ s graphs , Ireland stands out as going very much in the wrong direction : case growth is accelerating and , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now just below 11 % a day .
At that rate , new cases will double every week : and , since confirmed cases tend to be the more serious cases , deaths will eventually grow that rapidly too .
In many nations , business-continuity specialists are beginning to ask an important question : can the world afford not to sweep away the totalitarian regime in Peking and its poodles in international bodies such as the WHO ?
Fig .
1 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 15 , 2020 .
A link to the high-definition PowerPoint slides is at the end of this posting .
Fig .
2 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 15 , 2020 .
High-resolution images of the two graphs are here @

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Early in 2001, an international corporation’s chief financial officer conducted a business-continuity appraisal of the entire business. All insurances were reviewed and brought up to date. The pension fund was audited to make sure it could meet its obligations. Health, safety and business-risk assessments of every kind were conducted.
The United States headquarters of the corporation were in a prominent New York skyscraper. The cautious finance officer decided that if one of the many totalitarian regimes worldwide that hate democracy and, therefore, have a particular loathing for the United States were to mount a terrorist attack, the building might be vulnerable. At some cost, he turned in the lease and, notwithstanding some grumbling from the board, moved the entire operation to somewhere less prominent.
The building was No. 1, World Trade Center.
The CFO was my brother-in-law, which is how I know the story. As far as I know, it has not been published before. For confidentiality, I shall not name the corporation, but you have heard of it.
Protecting any business, or any nation, from foreseeable but apparently not immediate risk always comes at a price. The arcane art of business continuity appraisal is to decide which risks are so potentially damaging to the corporation that they must be prepared for regardless of cost. The CFO’s assessment was that the corporation might not recover if it lost its entire United States headquarters staff. So he paid the cost and was proven right to have done so.
For various reasons, China is the source of most of the world’s recent pandemics. Therefore, countries in the region, such as Taiwan and South Korea, have taken elaborate business-continuity steps to make sure that if yet another Chinese pandemic was loosed upon the world they would be able to prevent the loss of life and colossal economic damage that would occur if they were not prepared.
South Korea established the gold-standard procedure: test as widely as possible, isolate all carriers, and vigorously trace all their contacts. The contact-tracing is done not only by making intensive use of cellphone data but also by recruiting an army of volunteer contact-tracers and setting them to work.
The ruling Democratic Party in Seoul has now reaped its just reward for its foresight and competence. In a general election with a record 66% turnout, with all voters wearing masks, keeping well apart from one another and being temperature-tested as they approached the polling stations, the party has won the largest majority ever to be achieved by any party since democratic elections were first introduced on the current model in 1987, a third of a century ago.
Most other nations, and in particular just about all Western nations, were nothing like so well prepared. They failed to realize that the Chinese Communist regime was lying about every aspect of the pandemic; they failed to notice that the World Health Organization, dominated by Communists, was repeating the Chinese lies rather than questioning them; their pandemic-response teams had failed to ensure that they could cope with population-wide testing, isolation of carriers and contact-tracing; and, when they had missed that bus, some of them dithered for weeks before imposing lockdowns, apparently unaware that not merely days but hours count if one wants to minimize the cost of a pandemic, in lives and in treasure.
At what point can lockdowns be lifted? As a rule of thumb, one should not lift a lockdown until the mean compound daily case-growth rate has fallen below 5% (and even that rate, if it were persisted in, would double the number of cases every two weeks).
In today’s graphs, Ireland stands out as going very much in the wrong direction: case growth is accelerating and, averaged over the past week, is now just below 11% a day. At that rate, new cases will double every week: and, since confirmed cases tend to be the more serious cases, deaths will eventually grow that rapidly too.
In many nations, business-continuity specialists are beginning to ask an important question: can the world afford not to sweep away the totalitarian regime in Peking and its poodles in international bodies such as the WHO?
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 15, 2020. A link to the high-definition PowerPoint slides is at the end of this posting.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 15, 2020.
High-resolution images of the two graphs are here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Researchers discover a six-planet system with near 3:2 resonance

With orbit periods ranging from only 2-12 days , this must be one of the most compact multi-planet systems found so far .
Almost visible to the naked eye in the Draco constellation , the star HD 158259 has been observed for the last seven years by astronomers using the SOPHIE spectrograph , reports Phys.org .
This instrument , installed at the Haute-Provence Observatory in the South of France , acquired 300 measurements of the star .
The analysis of the data which was done by an international team led by researchers from the University of Geneva ( UNIGE ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HD 158259 has six planetary companions : a “ super-Earth ” and five “ mini-Neptunes.
” These planets display an exceptionally regular spacing , which hints at how the system may have formed .
This study , published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics , also includes TESS space telescope observations of the star , which unveil the density of the innermost planet .
The SOPHIE measurements of HD 158259 allow the radial velocity of the star to be measured with great precision—that is its velocity of the star in the direction of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same type of measurement that led to the discovery of 51 Peg b by the 2019 Nobel Prize winners Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz in 1995 .
What ’ s more , the detection of 51 Peg b and of the six planets of HD 158259 was done using the same telescope .
Unveiling a system with such small planets would not have been feasible back in 1995 , nor at the installation of SOPHIE back in 2006 .
“ The discovery of this exceptional system has been made possible thanks to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measurements , as well as a dramatic improvement of the instrument and of our signal processing techniques , ” says François Bouchy , professor in the Department of Astronomy of the Faculty of science of UNIGE and coordinator of the observational program .
“ This is great work and shows the important role smaller telescopes play in furthering the advances of astronomy through high-quality research using old , but well funded observatories , ” adds Paul A. Wilson , researcher at the University of Warwick and co-author of the study .
SOPHIE observations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 158259 and the five outer planets present masses of two and six times that of the Earth , respectively .
The system has been found to be compact , in the sense that the distance of the outermost planet to its star is 2.6 times smaller than the distance between Mercury and the Sun .
Furthermore , NASA ’ s TESS space telescope observed a decrease of the star ’ s brightness as the innermost planet transited between the observer and the star .
“ The TESS measurements strongly support the detection of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its radius , which brings very valuable information on the planet ’ s internal structure , ” says Isabelle Boisse , researcher at the Marseille Astrophysics Laboratory and co-author of the study .
Hundreds of multi-planetary systems are known , but only a dozen contain six planets or more .
The presence of six planets orbiting HD 158259 makes this system remarkable , but its most interesting feature is its regularity .
Indeed , the period ratio of any two subsequent planets is close to 3:2 .
This means that as the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ orbits , the second one completes about two .
As this second planet completes three orbits , the third completes about two , and so on .
This situation is better understood in the general framework of “ resonance , ” which plays a key role in the architecture of planetary systems .
Several planets are said to be in resonance when they find themselves in the same configuration periodically after completing a potentially different number of orbits .
“ This is comparable to several musicians beating distinct rhythms , yet who beat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of each bar , ” says Nathan C. Hara , researcher at the Department of astronomy of the Faculty of science of UNIGE , member of the PlanetS institute and first author of the study .
Planets can also be close to the resonance , but not exactly within .
This is the case of the planets of HD 158259 .

With orbit periods ranging from only 2-12 days, this must be one of the most compact multi-planet systems found so far.
Almost visible to the naked eye in the Draco constellation, the star HD 158259 has been observed for the last seven years by astronomers using the SOPHIE spectrograph, reports Phys.org.
This instrument, installed at the Haute-Provence Observatory in the South of France, acquired 300 measurements of the star.
The analysis of the data which was done by an international team led by researchers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), has resulted in the discovery that HD 158259 has six planetary companions: a “super-Earth” and five “mini-Neptunes.”
These planets display an exceptionally regular spacing, which hints at how the system may have formed.
This study, published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics, also includes TESS space telescope observations of the star, which unveil the density of the innermost planet.
The SOPHIE measurements of HD 158259 allow the radial velocity of the star to be measured with great precision—that is its velocity of the star in the direction of the line of sight. It is the same type of measurement that led to the discovery of 51 Peg b by the 2019 Nobel Prize winners Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz in 1995. What’s more, the detection of 51 Peg b and of the six planets of HD 158259 was done using the same telescope.
Unveiling a system with such small planets would not have been feasible back in 1995, nor at the installation of SOPHIE back in 2006. “The discovery of this exceptional system has been made possible thanks to the acquisition of a great number of measurements, as well as a dramatic improvement of the instrument and of our signal processing techniques,” says François Bouchy, professor in the Department of Astronomy of the Faculty of science of UNIGE and coordinator of the observational program.
“This is great work and shows the important role smaller telescopes play in furthering the advances of astronomy through high-quality research using old, but well funded observatories,” adds Paul A. Wilson, researcher at the University of Warwick and co-author of the study.
SOPHIE observations showed that the planet closest to HD 158259 and the five outer planets present masses of two and six times that of the Earth, respectively. The system has been found to be compact, in the sense that the distance of the outermost planet to its star is 2.6 times smaller than the distance between Mercury and the Sun.
Furthermore, NASA’s TESS space telescope observed a decrease of the star’s brightness as the innermost planet transited between the observer and the star. “The TESS measurements strongly support the detection of the planet and allow us to estimate its radius, which brings very valuable information on the planet’s internal structure,” says Isabelle Boisse, researcher at the Marseille Astrophysics Laboratory and co-author of the study.
Planets in rhythm
Hundreds of multi-planetary systems are known, but only a dozen contain six planets or more. The presence of six planets orbiting HD 158259 makes this system remarkable, but its most interesting feature is its regularity.
Indeed, the period ratio of any two subsequent planets is close to 3:2. This means that as the first planet—the one closest to the star—completes three orbits, the second one completes about two. As this second planet completes three orbits, the third completes about two, and so on.
This situation is better understood in the general framework of “resonance,” which plays a key role in the architecture of planetary systems. Several planets are said to be in resonance when they find themselves in the same configuration periodically after completing a potentially different number of orbits.
“This is comparable to several musicians beating distinct rhythms, yet who beat at the same time at the beginning of each bar,” says Nathan C. Hara, researcher at the Department of astronomy of the Faculty of science of UNIGE, member of the PlanetS institute and first author of the study.
Planets can also be close to the resonance, but not exactly within. This is the case of the planets of HD 158259.
Full report here.
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April 16, 2020 at 03:42PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Up to 34 inches of snow for Colorado mountains

Apparently Colorado need not worry too much about global warming this week .
Snow showers .
High near 26 .
Breezy , with a west wind around 21 mph , with gusts as high as 33 mph .
Chance of precipitation is 80 % .
Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible .
Snow showers .
The snow could be heavy at times .
Low around 14 .
Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph , with gusts as high as 18 mph .
Chance of precipitation is 100 % .
New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The snow could be heavy at times .
Temperature falling to around 11 by 2pm .
Wind chill values as low as -1 .
South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east northeast in the morning .
Winds could gust as high as 18 mph .
Chance of precipitation is 100 % .
New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible .
Snow showers , mainly before midnight .
Low around 7 .
Wind chill values as low as -10 .
Breezy , with an east wind 7 to 15 mph @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gust as high as 25 mph .
Chance of precipitation is 80 % .
New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible .
Friday Mostly clear , with a low around 17 .
Wind chill values as low as zero .
Breezy , with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph , with gusts as high as 31 mph .
Snow showers likely , mainly after noon .
Thanks to Don Bishop for this link The post Up to 34 inches of snow for Colorado mountains appeared first on Ice Age @ @

Apparently Colorado need not worry too much about global warming this week.
Wednesday Afternoon
Snow showers. High near 26. Breezy, with a west wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
Thursday afternoon
Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 11 by 2pm. Wind chill values as low as -1. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Thursday night Snow showers, mainly before midnight. Low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Wind chill values as low as zero. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Sunday A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Sunday Night A slight chance of snow showers. Monday A slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.28934698256214&lon=-105.64144134521484&site=bou&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text#.Xpi-X_hKh_D
Thanks to Don Bishop for this link
The post Up to 34 inches of snow for Colorado mountains appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 16, 2020 at 03:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Greatest Propaganda Operation World Has Seen

Video – You do the math .
If you ignore the vast number of unreported and unconfirmed cases , and @ @ @ @ @ , you will find that only 0.17 percent of the American population is infected , @ @ @ @ @ video .
This means that 0.007 percent of the American population has died .
The @ @ @ @ @ , that many people who have been exposed to this “ world-ending disease ” don @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve got it .
Thanks to Winston Smith for this video The post Greatest @ @ @ @ @ appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Video – You do the math.
If you ignore the vast number of unreported and unconfirmed cases, and use only the confirmed cases, you will find that only 0.17 percent of the American population is infected, says David Knight in this video. This means that 0.007 percent of the American population has died.
The symptoms can be so benign, that many people who have been exposed to this “world-ending disease” don’t even know they’ve got it.
Thanks to Winston Smith for this video
The post Greatest Propaganda Operation World Has Seen appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 16, 2020 at 03:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Hundreds of cold records shattered across North America along with record snowfall

Topples records more than 100 years old .
Mainstream media barely mentions it .
Record cold and snowfall hit many parts of North America over the Easter weekend toppling records across many U.S. states , with Montana , Iowa , South Dakota , and Colorado seemingly worst hit .
A winter storm system moved through Iowa on Sunday delivering between up to a foot of snow — several northern Iowa towns saw their all-time records tumble : The 3.7 inches reported at Sioux Gateway Airport broke the record for April 12th ; it also made it the second highest Easter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Easter 1929 .
The town of Ringsted , Iowa ) came in with a record-busting 11 inches , reports whotv.com/news .
According to the National Weather Service ( NWS ) , other Eastern snowfall records tumbled in Rock Valley ( 7 inches ) , Hull ( 6.5 inches ) , and Rock Rapids ( 8.3 inches ) .
Nearby Sioux Falls , South Dakota saw 5.2 inches on Monday , the most snowfall on any date in the city going back to 1893 .
Denver ’ s Monday morning low temperature of 16F @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coldest April 13 ever , with snow expected throughout the week .
The cold record at Denver International Airport eclipsed the previous record of 17F set way back in 1933 , the NWS confirmed in a Tweet : The all-time record for ‘ coldest high temperature ’ also fell on Monday — the 27F set back in 1933 was ousted by a full two degrees : The story was all-too similar in and around Rochester , MN .
It was an Easter snowstorm residents of southeast Minnesota will be talking about for some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rochester ’ s official total at the city airport was 7.5 inches .
That pipped the previous record for April 12 –7.2 inches , 1962– and also made it the city ’ s 4th snowiest April day of all-time .
In Wyoming , Gillette observed a low of 4F on Monday morning , according to NWS meteorologist Matt Bunkers .
That low smashed the previous all-time daily record low of 9F set in 1997 , in books dating back 118 years , to 1902 .
The NWS reported even heavier falls in Elgin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 inches ) , and the Oronoco area ( 9.7 inches ) .
Bunkers said dipping 5 degrees below a previous record , especially in the month of April , is “ interesting to witness ” .
Looking forward , he added that winter will hold a tight grasp on the region throughout the week .
Monday night ’ s low is projected to be 8F , with area thermometers not expected to top 40F until Saturday .
In addition , heavy snow was headed Gillette ’ s way over the Easter weekend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : North of the border , the city of Kamloops , BC , suffered -3.9C on Sunday morning , tying the coldest ever recorded temperature on April 12 set in 1971 .
Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link The post Hundreds of cold records shattered across North America along with record snowfall appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Topples records more than 100 years old. Mainstream media barely mentions it.
Record cold and snowfall hit many parts of North America over the Easter weekend toppling records across many U.S. states, with Montana, Iowa, South Dakota, and Colorado seemingly worst hit.
A winter storm system moved through Iowa on Sunday delivering between up to a foot of snow — several northern Iowa towns saw their all-time records tumble:
The 3.7 inches reported at Sioux Gateway Airport broke the record for April 12th; it also made it the second highest Easter snowfall ever behind the 4.7 inches during Easter 1929.
The town of Ringsted, Iowa) came in with a record-busting 11 inches, reports whotv.com/news.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), other Eastern snowfall records tumbled in Rock Valley (7 inches), Hull (6.5 inches), and Rock Rapids (8.3 inches).
Nearby Sioux Falls, South Dakota saw 5.2 inches on Monday, the most snowfall on any date in the city going back to 1893.
Denver’s Monday morning low temperature of 16F broke the city’s record for coldest April 13 ever, with snow expected throughout the week.
The cold record at Denver International Airport eclipsed the previous record of 17F set way back in 1933, the NWS confirmed in a Tweet:
The all-time record for ‘coldest high temperature’ also fell on Monday — the 27F set back in 1933 was ousted by a full two degrees:
The story was all-too similar in and around Rochester, MN.
It was an Easter snowstorm residents of southeast Minnesota will be talking about for some time, reads a krocnews.com article.
Rochester’s official total at the city airport was 7.5 inches. That pipped the previous record for April 12 –7.2 inches, 1962– and also made it the city’s 4th snowiest April day of all-time.
In Wyoming, Gillette observed a low of 4F on Monday morning, according to NWS meteorologist Matt Bunkers. That low smashed the previous all-time daily record low of 9F set in 1997, in books dating back 118 years, to 1902.
The NWS reported even heavier falls in Elgin (10.8 inches), Wabasha (10 inches), and the Oronoco area (9.7 inches).
Bunkers said dipping 5 degrees below a previous record, especially in the month of April, is “interesting to witness”. Looking forward, he added that winter will hold a tight grasp on the region throughout the week. Monday night’s low is projected to be 8F, with area thermometers not expected to top 40F until Saturday.
Tuesday’s all-time record low is 7F, set in 1986.
In addition, heavy snow was headed Gillette’s way over the Easter weekend, triggering a level 1 Snow Emergency:
North of the border, the city of Kamloops, BC, suffered -3.9C on Sunday morning , tying the coldest ever recorded temperature on April 12 set in 1971.
Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link
The post Hundreds of cold records shattered across North America along with record snowfall appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 16, 2020 at 03:01PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Lockdown is not a plan “foisted” on unwilling masses, the people want it

Far from being imposed from above , lockdowns in the face of a pandemic are just democracy in action .
@ @ @ @ @ disease people just want to be safe , and they want their loved ones to @ @ @ @ @ if they might lose their job .
Has there ever been such a radical plan @ @ @ @ @ ?
Coronavirus : UK lockdown supported by 93 per cent of public , poll finds @ @ @ @ @ of people support the plan unveiled the by the prime minister , with just four @ @ @ @ @ rest saying they do not know .
The poll said 75 per cent strongly supported @ @ @ @ @ per cent saying they “ somewhat ” supported them .
THE BRITISH public are steadfastly @ @ @ @ @ restrictions for as long as it takes to defeat coronavirus , a new poll has @ @ @ @ @ voters in Britain are strongly behind the government ’ s science led strategy to tackle @ @ @ @ @ in taking a tough stance against those who are [ … ]

Far from being imposed from above, lockdowns in the face of a pandemic are just democracy in action. Faced with a deadly new disease people just want to be safe, and they want their loved ones to be safe too. Even if they might lose their job.
Has there ever been such a radical plan that was this radically popular?
Coronavirus: UK lockdown supported by 93 per cent of public, poll finds
Jon Stone, Independent, UK, March 24
YouGov says 93 per cent of people support the plan unveiled the by the prime minister, with just four per cent opposed and the rest saying they do not know.
The poll said 75 per cent strongly supported the measures, with 17 per cent saying they “somewhat” supported them.
It’s still popular:
THE BRITISH public are steadfastly ready to continue with lockdown restrictions for as long as it takes to defeat coronavirus, a new poll has revealed.
David Maddox, The Express, UK April 12
It found that voters in Britain are strongly behind the government’s science led strategy to tackle coronavirus and back the police in taking a tough stance against those who are […]
Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)
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April 16, 2020 at 02:42PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Half of UK Carbon Emissions Come From Overseas

The UK has been less successful at cutting greenhouse gas emissions than the official record claims as nearly half our carbon footprint now comes from emissions released overseas to produce imported goods , a report has said .
Emissions from making products such as clothing , foods and electronics imported into the UK are counted in official statistics as the responsibility of the manufacturing country , not Britain .
These “ hidden emissions ” accounted for 46 per cent of the UK ’ s overall carbon footprint last year , according to the report by the University of Leeds .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ per cent in 1990 partly because of the closure of some UK manufacturing and a shift to importing more of the energy-intensive goods consumed here .
Between 1990 and 2016 emissions within the UK ’ s borders fell by 41 per cent but the consumption-based footprint dropped by only 15 per cent , mainly due to imported goods and services .
The UK last year made a legally binding commitment to becoming carbon neutral by 2050 but this target excludes emissions from producing imports .
The post Half of UK Carbon Emissions Come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

The UK has been less successful at cutting greenhouse gas emissions than the official record claims as nearly half our carbon footprint now comes from emissions released overseas to produce imported goods, a report has said.
Emissions from making products such as clothing, foods and electronics imported into the UK are counted in official statistics as the responsibility of the manufacturing country, not Britain.
These “hidden emissions” accounted for 46 per cent of the UK’s overall carbon footprint last year, according to the report by the University of Leeds. The proportion has grown rapidly from 14 per cent in 1990 partly because of the closure of some UK manufacturing and a shift to importing more of the energy-intensive goods consumed here.
Between 1990 and 2016 emissions within the UK’s borders fell by 41 per cent but the consumption-based footprint dropped by only 15 per cent, mainly due to imported goods and services.
The UK last year made a legally binding commitment to becoming carbon neutral by 2050 but this target excludes emissions from producing imports.
The post Half of UK Carbon Emissions Come From Overseas appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 16, 2020 at 01:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Melting Ice Reveals Lost Viking Mountain Pass

The headline is a strong indication that modern climatic conditions have occurred before within the last two millennia at least .
Any claims that today ’ s conditions can ’ t be natural have to be weighed against such evidence .
The retreating mountain glaciers of Norway have revealed a host of rare archaeological finds and uncovered a lost mountain pass at Lendbreen in Innlandet County , report archaelogists from Cambridge University .
The finds tell a remarkable story of high-altitude travel and long distance exchange c. 300 – 1500 AD with a peak in usage c. 1000 AD during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ archaeologists from Norway and Cambridge have published details of these artefacts today in the journal Antiquity .
“ A lost mountain pass melting out of the ice is a dream discovery for glacial archaeologists , ” says Lars Pilø , first author of the study and co-director for the Glacier Archaeology Program .
“ In such passes , past travellers left behind lots of artefacts , frozen in time by the ice .
These incredibly well-preserved artefacts of organic materials have great historical value.
” Some of the hundreds of finds from Lendbreen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pass , such as horseshoes , bones from packhorses , remains of sleds and even a walking stick with a runic inscription .
Other finds are items from daily life – a knife with a preserved wooden handle , a wooden distaff ( for holding wool during hand-spinning ) and a wooden whisk .
Remains of clothing , such as a Roman Iron Age tunic , a Viking Age mitten and shoes have also been recovered .
Other objects have no parallels in the archaeological record and their function remains unknown .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the story .
“ Sites like the mountain pass at Lendbreen have a larger story to tell beyond the incredible finds , ” says corresponding author James H. Barrett of the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research at the University of Cambridge .
Radiocarbon dates on the artefacts show that traffic through the pass started in the Roman Iron Age around AD 300 , peaked in the Viking Age around AD 1000 , and declined after this .

H/T The GWPF
The headline is a strong indication that modern climatic conditions have occurred before within the last two millennia at least. Any claims that today’s conditions can’t be natural have to be weighed against such evidence.
The retreating mountain glaciers of Norway have revealed a host of rare archaeological finds and uncovered a lost mountain pass at Lendbreen in Innlandet County, report archaelogists from Cambridge University.
The finds tell a remarkable story of high-altitude travel and long distance exchange c. 300 – 1500 AD with a peak in usage c. 1000 AD during the Viking Age.
A team of archaeologists from Norway and Cambridge have published details of these artefacts today in the journal Antiquity.
“A lost mountain pass melting out of the ice is a dream discovery for glacial archaeologists,” says Lars Pilø, first author of the study and co-director for the Glacier Archaeology Program. “In such passes, past travellers left behind lots of artefacts, frozen in time by the ice. These incredibly well-preserved artefacts of organic materials have great historical value.”
Some of the hundreds of finds from Lendbreen derive from the actual transport through the pass, such as horseshoes, bones from packhorses, remains of sleds and even a walking stick with a runic inscription.
Other finds are items from daily life – a knife with a preserved wooden handle, a wooden distaff (for holding wool during hand-spinning) and a wooden whisk.
Remains of clothing, such as a Roman Iron Age tunic, a Viking Age mitten and shoes have also been recovered. Other objects have no parallels in the archaeological record and their function remains unknown.
But, the well-preserved finds are only part of the story.
“Sites like the mountain pass at Lendbreen have a larger story to tell beyond the incredible finds,” says corresponding author James H. Barrett of the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research at the University of Cambridge.
Radiocarbon dates on the artefacts show that traffic through the pass started in the Roman Iron Age around AD 300, peaked in the Viking Age around AD 1000, and declined after this.
Continued here.
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April 16, 2020 at 12:54PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Scientists Find A CO2 Impact On Ocean Heat Content Changes Amounts To 0.049% At Most

The radiative impact of CO2 on the ocean ’ s thermal skin layer can not penetrate deeper than 0.01 mm .
This effectively eliminates the potential for CO2 to be a driver of global warming .
According to mainstream anthropogenic global warming ( AGW ) science , 93 % of global warming is manifested in the 0-2000 m oceans .
Just 1 % of global warming is manifested as a change in atmospheric temperature .
Consequently , for anthropogenic CO2 emissions to be a driver of global warming , CO2 concentration changes must drive changes in the Earth ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Minnett ( 2018 ) point out that total CO2 forcing can only radiatively exert an impact on the top 0.01 mm of the ocean ’ s thermal skin layer .
( Human hair is about 0.06 mm thick . )
Problematically , the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the upper 0.01 mm layer of the ocean is just 4.9 W/m² .
Thus , CO2 concentration changes may , at most , affect 0.049 % of the global oceans ’ thermal skin layer .
This is the total extent of the radiative impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes .
CO2 may therefore be ruled out as a driver of global warming .

The radiative impact of CO2 on the ocean’s thermal skin layer cannot penetrate deeper than 0.01 mm. This effectively eliminates the potential for CO2 to be a driver of global warming.
According to mainstream anthropogenic global warming (AGW) science, 93% of global warming is manifested in the 0-2000 m oceans. Just 1% of global warming is manifested as a change in atmospheric temperature.
Image Source: IPCC ( ipcc.fandom.com
Consequently, for anthropogenic CO2 emissions to be a driver of global warming, CO2 concentration changes must drive changes in the Earth’s ocean heat content.
Oceanographers Wong and Minnett (2018) point out that total CO2 forcing can only radiatively exert an impact on the top 0.01 mm of the ocean’s thermal skin layer. (Human hair is about 0.06 mm thick.)
Problematically, the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the upper 0.01 mm layer of the ocean is just 4.9 W/m².
Thus, CO2 concentration changes may, at most, affect 0.049% of the global oceans’ thermal skin layer.
This is the total extent of the radiative impact for CO2 in global ocean heat content changes.
CO2 may therefore be ruled out as a driver of global warming.
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April 16, 2020 at 12:20PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-16--Climate Claim: President Trump’s Travel Bans Shows We Need More Global Governance

According to Oxford Lecturer Kate Guy , President Trump “ blindsiding ” allies with Coronavirus travel bans and his focus on taking care of the USA proves we are not ready for the coming climate disaster – but we could “ rebound ” with “ more solid ” global security and cooperation .
Coronavirus shows we are not at all prepared for the security threat of climate change April 16 , 2020 12.28am AEST Kate Guy , PhD Candidate and Lecturer in International Relations , University of Oxford How might a single threat , even one deemed unlikely , spiral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the foundations of global security , economic stability and democratic governance , all in the matter of a few weeks ?
My research on threats to national security , governance and geopolitics has focused on exactly this question , albeit with a focus on the disruptive potential of climate change , rather than a novel coronavirus .
In recent work alongside intelligence and defence experts at the think-tank Center for Climate and Security , I analysed how future warming scenarios could disrupt security and governance worldwide throughout the 21st century .
Our culminating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Global Climate Change , was launched in Washington just as the first coronavirus cases were spreading undetected across the US .
While traditionally a great power like the US might step forward to direct a collective international response , instead the Trump administration has repeatedly chosen to blindside its allies with the introduction of new limitations on trade and movement of peoples .
This mismanagement has led to each nation going on its own , despite the fact that working together would net greater gains for all .
As the New York Times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the voices of world leaders are forming “ less a choir than a cacophony ” , leading to mixed global messages , undetected spread , and ongoing fights over limited resources .
We can treat the current global crisis as a sort of “ stress test ” on these institutions , exposing their vulnerabilities but also providing the urgent impetus to build new resilience .
In that light , we could successfully rebound from this moment with more solid global security and cooperation than we knew going into it .
Decision-makers should take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , problem-solving methods , and institutional design with future climate forecasts like our Threat Assessment in mind .
What are they teaching in universities these days ?
There is nothing wrong with different countries implementing varied responses to the Chinese Coronavirus , or any other global crisis .
Imagine if the world had embraced a completely unified response , and granted the incompetent United Nations World Health Organisation had been granted absolute power for the duration of the crisis .
The WHO wanted open borders and free movement long after Trump closed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of focus ; a senior WHO advisor wants recovery money to be spent on renewables .
A variety of disconnected responses to Covid-19 means multiple opportunities to get things right , instead of putting all the eggs in one basket .
Nobody knows what the right response is , but with a variety of different responses , everyone can observe what is working in other countries , and what mistakes they made , and copy the best of what other people are doing .

One of Oxford University’s Famous Feasts. Oxford Trinity College High Table. By Winky from Oxford, UK (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to Oxford Lecturer Kate Guy, President Trump “blindsiding” allies with Coronavirus travel bans and his focus on taking care of the USA proves we are not ready for the coming climate disaster – but we could “rebound” with “more solid” global security and cooperation.
Coronavirus shows we are not at all prepared for the security threat of climate change April 16, 2020 12.28am AEST
Kate Guy, PhD Candidate and Lecturer in International Relations, University of Oxford How might a single threat, even one deemed unlikely, spiral into an evolving global crisis which challenges the foundations of global security, economic stability and democratic governance, all in the matter of a few weeks? My research on threats to national security, governance and geopolitics has focused on exactly this question, albeit with a focus on the disruptive potential of climate change, rather than a novel coronavirus. In recent work alongside intelligence and defence experts at the think-tank Center for Climate and Security, I analysed how future warming scenarios could disrupt security and governance worldwide throughout the 21st century. Our culminating report, A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change, was launched in Washington just as the first coronavirus cases were spreading undetected across the US. … An uncoordinated response … While traditionally a great power like the US might step forward to direct a collective international response, instead the Trump administration has repeatedly chosen to blindside its allies with the introduction of new limitations on trade and movement of peoples. This mismanagement has led to each nation going on its own, despite the fact that working together would net greater gains for all. As the New York Times’s Mark Landler put it, the voices of world leaders are forming “less a choir than a cacophony”, leading to mixed global messages, undetected spread, and ongoing fights over limited resources. … We can treat the current global crisis as a sort of “stress test” on these institutions, exposing their vulnerabilities but also providing the urgent impetus to build new resilience. In that light, we could successfully rebound from this moment with more solid global security and cooperation than we knew going into it. Decision-makers should take a hard look at their current responses, problem-solving methods, and institutional design with future climate forecasts like our Threat Assessment in mind. … Read more: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-shows-we-are-not-at-all-prepared-for-the-security-threat-of-climate-change-136029
What are they teaching in universities these days?
There is nothing wrong with different countries implementing varied responses to the Chinese Coronavirus, or any other global crisis.
Imagine if the world had embraced a completely unified response, and granted the incompetent United Nations World Health Organisation had been granted absolute power for the duration of the crisis. The WHO wanted open borders and free movement long after Trump closed the US border. And talk about lack of focus; a senior WHO advisor wants recovery money to be spent on renewables.
A variety of disconnected responses to Covid-19 means multiple opportunities to get things right, instead of putting all the eggs in one basket. Nobody knows what the right response is, but with a variety of different responses, everyone can observe what is working in other countries, and what mistakes they made, and copy the best of what other people are doing.