iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Nashville, TN Area Tornadoes: Just Weather, Not Climate Change

As a weather forecaster , I love being able to break down and forecast extreme and/or noteworthy weather events here in the United States .
Tropical cyclones , nor ’ easters , and Arctic outbreaks are a particular interest of mine .
Yet , throughout this very mild winter with very little barotropic instability and surges of cold air in the Lower 48 , I have found myself bored as of late .
It has been a rinse , wash , and repeat kind of winter with inland Appalachian storm tracks , mild temperatures , and little snowfall for many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly along the east coast , where I dwell .
Now that spring is at our doorstep , severe weather season is about to begin .
Of course , with any type of weather that occurs , someone with zero credibility will attempt to link it to man-made climate change .
Without any disruption in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex circulations or any significant winter storms sweeping across the Heartland or east coast , climate change activists have been rather quiet over the last couple of months .
With the coronavirus outbreak , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are allegedly in a climate emergency － whatever that means － and have now shifted their focus to the coronavirus apocalypse .
Even so , that hasn ’ t stopped some journalists from attempting to reinvigorate the global climate breakdown .
In the early morning hours of Tuesday , March 3 , a series of tornadoes spawned from a parent supercell － rotating － thunderstorm , touched down in Tennessee resulting in at least 24 fatalities and hundreds of injuries.¹ Among the ten reported across Tennessee ( Figure 1 ) , seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state and the two worst struck the Nashville area at velocities of 60 to 70 miles per hour ( mph ) .² Just after 12:30 a.m. on March 3 , a tornadic debris signature ( TDS ) showed up on radar about one mile west of John C. Tune Airport in Nashville.¹ Tornadic debris signatures are seen when the radar beam bounces off shrapnel and other debris rather than raindrops or hail .
Figure 2 .
“ A slice through the storm ’ s radar data shows a “ debris ball ” at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corkscrew updraft high into the storm can be seen .
( Matthew Cappucci/GR2 Analyst ) .
” － Washington Post ‘ s Capital Weather Gang .
Just as the tornado was ravaging the airport － where damages are estimated to be over $ 90 million － the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning.¹ Earlier that evening , the weather service had issued tornado watches , but they were dropped due to a lack of damage reports , according to Mike Rose , a meteorologist.¹ The EF-3 tornado of 165 mile per hour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plow through the heart of Music City before dissipating just south of Interstate 40 ; it traveled 60.13 miles ( Figure 3 ) .² The stronger tornado was an EF-4 which caused considerable damage to Putnam County between Baxter and Cookeville , Tennessee on a 8.21 mile path ( Figure 4 ) .² Fortunately , the tornado rapidly came to an end just before entering downtown Cookeville.² Despite the mainstream media ’ s widespread coverage of the Tennessee tornadoes , most of their pieces didn ’ t mention climate change being a factor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I was honestly surprised .
Even so , this didn ’ t stop some .
David Wallace-Wells , an editor and climate columnist for New York Magazine , Tweeted , I ’ m not aware of any studies that have investigated tornado path lengths in relation to global warming , but I ’ m going to assume that David is just making things up .
Given the complex and small-scale nature of tornadoes and their parent supercell thunderstorms , which require a variety of crucial meteorological and environmental parameters such as instability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shear , and vary considerably at the mesoscale level on the order of seconds to minutes , or and even occasionally hours , it would be very tough to attribute climate change to tornado path length changes , let alone , tornado frequency assuming there have been any .
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ‘ s ( NOAA ‘ s ) Storm Prediction Center ( SPC ) agrees.³ According to their Tornado FAQ page , Just for some rational thought , the longest path ever carved by a tornado was 218 miles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Tri-State Tornado Outbreak of March 18 , 1925 .
That particular tornado was on the ground for 3 hours and 37 minutes .
Did global warming play a role in that tornado outbreak ?
Probably not .
As far as Tornado Alley is concerned , the study he was alluding to ( Gensini and Brooks , 2018 ) did not specifically state that [ man-made ] climate change was responsible for the eastward shift of Tornado Alley .
Rather , the study found : Figure 5 .
While the most tornadoes reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Plains , there has been a slight decline in the frequency with a larger increase relative to what is considered “ normal ” along the Mississippi River .
－ Gensini and Brooks ( 2018 ) .
The study also concluded that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding whether anthropogenic forcing of the climate system or natural internal variability may be driving these changes : ⁴ So , it is clearly evident that Wallace-Wells didn ’ t actually read the study .
If he had done so , he would have accurately reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the paper .
I ’ m not surprised , however , this inaccurate representation of findings in climate studies has unfortunately become a commonplace in mainstream journalism .
There is also evidence that the timing of tornado season has shifted as well , however , causes of this shift is once again unknown .
Is it natural variability ?
Is it man-made climate change ?
Is it both ?
Nobody has a clue .
A study published in the Geophysical Research Letters ( GRL ) , Long and Stoy ( 2014 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tornado Alley has become earlier by approximately seven days over the last 60 years ( Figure 6 ) .⁵ Figure 6 .
“ Plot of peak tornado activity for the heart of Tornado Alley .
The Julian day that corresponds to peak tornado activity plotted for each 10 year moving window by variable type for the region , with linear trendlines .
The years on the x axis represent the last year of the associated 10‐year moving average ( e.g.
, 1963 represents 1954–1963 ) .
” － Long and Stoy ( 2014 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States tornado frequency trends are concerned , there has been little change in EF-1 to EF-5 tornadoes since relatively good records began in the 1950s ( Figure 7 ) .
Violent tornadoes , which are rated as EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale , have been on a noteworthy decline over the last several decades ( Figure 8 ) .
In fact , 2018 was the first year on record with no reported violent tornadoes .
I contacted Dr. Roy Spencer , a principle research scientist at the University of Alabama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the statistics show : In order to get a more accurate , but not perfect , representation of United States tornado climatology , I disregarded EF-0 tornadoes from the dataset .
My reasoning behind this is because tornado reports have increased substantially over the last several decades due to over a doubling of Great Plains population since 1950 , and therefore increased public awareness ; more photographic evidence and video footage ; the introduction of NEXRAD Doppler radar in the 1990s ; and an overall increased effort to document tornadoes for both meteorological @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EF-1 intensity , and especially EF-2 and higher , are the most likely to be documented with fairly consistent accuracy since the mid-1950s and early-1960s .
Both the United Nations ’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) and 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment ( NCA ) agree : ⁶ ⁷ As an aspiring meteorologist myself , I am by no means a denier of man-made climate change .
Indeed , I am in solid agreement with almost every scientist that mankind is responsible for at least some of the warming observed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not think climate change is a serious threat to humanity , I do think it ’ s a serious issue that needs to be discussed within the scientific community .
One of the things I love about science is being able to debate things , do research , and explore the unknown .
Extreme weather has always been around as long as documentation , official or unofficial , goes back .
Ridiculous and/or sometimes extreme claims made by a select few scientists , politicians , and even on occasion , the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not actual real-world observations .
Those who choose blame every single weather event , or so it seems , on man-made climate change are not only a roadblock for the progress of our scientific understanding of the issue , they ’ re just practicing a scientifically meaningless self-fulfilling prophecy .
[ 1 ] Cappucci , Matthew .
“ How the Deadly , Destructive Tornadoes Ravaged Nashville on Tuesday.
” The Washington Post .
WP Company , March 3 , 2020. https : //www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/03/how-deadly-destructive-tornadoes-ravaged-nashville-tuesday/ .
[ 3 ] Edwards , Roger .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Edwards , SPC ) .
” The Online Tornado FAQ ( by Roger Edwards , SPC ) .
NOAA SPC , April 19 , 2018. https : //www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/index.html .
[ 4 ] Gensini , Vittorio A. , and Harold E. Brooks .
“ Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency.
” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1 , no .
1 ( 2018 ) .
https : //doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2 .
[ 5 ] Long , John A. , and Paul C. Stoy .
“ Peak Tornado Activity Is Occurring Earlier in the Heart of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Letters 41 , no .
17 ( October 2014 ) : 6259–64 .
https : //doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061385 .
[ 6 ] Folland , C.K.
, T.R .
Karl , J.R. Christy , R.A. Clarke , G.V .
Gruza , J. Jouzel , M.E .
Mann , J. Oerlemans , M.J. Salinger and S.-W. Wang , 2001 : Observed Climate Variability and Change .
In : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis .
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ Houghton , J.T.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , M. Noguer , P.J .
van der Linden , X. Dai , K. Maskell , and C.A .
Johnson ( eds. )
] .
Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , United Kingdom and New York , NY , USA , 881pp .
( PDF ) [ 7 ] Kossin , J.P. , T. Hall , T. Knutson , K.E .
Kunkel , R.J. Trapp , D.E .
Waliser , and M.F .
Wehner , 2017 : Extreme storms .
In : Climate Science Special Report : Fourth National Climate Assessment , Volume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fahey , K.A .
Hibbard , D.J .
Dokken , B.C .
Stewart , and T.K .
Maycock ( eds. )
] .
U.S .
Global Change Research Program , Washington , DC , USA , pp .
257-276 , doi:10.7930/J07S7KXX .

Reposted from Chris Marz’s Weather Blog
By Chris Martz on 17 Mar 2020 • ( 2 )
Introduction
As a weather forecaster, I love being able to break down and forecast extreme and/or noteworthy weather events here in the United States. Tropical cyclones, nor’easters, and Arctic outbreaks are a particular interest of mine. Yet, throughout this very mild winter with very little barotropic instability and surges of cold air in the Lower 48, I have found myself bored as of late. It has been a rinse, wash, and repeat kind of winter with inland Appalachian storm tracks, mild temperatures, and little snowfall for many cities east of the Rocky Mountains, particularly along the east coast, where I dwell.
Now that spring is at our doorstep, severe weather season is about to begin. Of course, with any type of extreme weather that occurs, someone with zero credibility will attempt to link it to man-made climate change. Without any disruption in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex circulations or any significant winter storms sweeping across the Heartland or east coast, climate change activists have been rather quiet over the last couple of months. With the coronavirus outbreak, many of them have seemingly forgotten that we are allegedly in a climate emergency － whatever that means － and have now shifted their focus to the coronavirus apocalypse. Even so, that hasn’t stopped some journalists from attempting to reinvigorate the global climate breakdown.
In the early morning hours of Tuesday, March 3, a series of tornadoes spawned from a parent supercell － rotating － thunderstorm, touched down in Tennessee resulting in at least 24 fatalities and hundreds of injuries.¹ Among the ten reported across Tennessee (Figure 1), seven of them struck the middle of the state and the two worst struck the Nashville area at velocities of 60 to 70 miles per hour (mph).²
Figure 1. “March 2-3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak Map” － NWS Nashville.
The Nashville and Cookeville Tornadoes
Just after 12:30 a.m. on March 3, a tornadic debris signature (TDS) showed up on radar about one mile west of John C. Tune Airport in Nashville.¹ Tornadic debris signatures are seen when the radar beam bounces off shrapnel and other debris rather than raindrops or hail.
Figure 2. “A slice through the storm’s radar data shows a “debris ball” at ground level. The tornado’s corkscrew updraft high into the storm can be seen. (Matthew Cappucci/GR2 Analyst).” － Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang.
Just as the tornado was ravaging the airport － where damages are estimated to be over $90 million － the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning.¹ Earlier that evening, the weather service had issued tornado watches, but they were dropped due to a lack of damage reports, according to Mike Rose, a meteorologist.¹ The EF-3 tornado of 165 mile per hour (mph) winds went on to plow through the heart of Music City before dissipating just south of Interstate 40; it traveled 60.13 miles (Figure 3).²
Figure 3. Nashville tornado map － NWS Nashville.
The stronger tornado was an EF-4 which caused considerable damage to Putnam County between Baxter and Cookeville, Tennessee on a 8.21 mile path (Figure 4).² Fortunately, the tornado rapidly came to an end just before entering downtown Cookeville.²
Figure 4. Cookeville tornado map －NWS Nashville.
Did Climate Change Play A Role?
Despite the mainstream media’s widespread coverage of the Tennessee tornadoes, most of their pieces didn’t mention climate change being a factor in the severity of the tornado outbreak. I was honestly surprised. Even so, this didn’t stop some. David Wallace-Wells, an editor and climate columnist for New York Magazine, Tweeted,
I’m not aware of any studies that have investigated tornado path lengths in relation to global warming, but I’m going to assume that David is just making things up. Given the complex and small-scale nature of tornadoes and their parent supercell thunderstorms, which require a variety of crucial meteorological and environmental parameters such as instability, moisture, lift, and wind shear, and vary considerably at the mesoscale level on the order of seconds to minutes, or and even occasionally hours, it would be very tough to attribute climate change to tornado path length changes, let alone, tornado frequency assuming there have been any.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s (NOAA‘s) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) agrees.³ According to their Tornado FAQ page,
“Climate models cannot resolve tornadoes or individual thunderstorms. They can indicate broad-scale shifts in three of the four favorable ingredients for severe thunderstorms (moisture, instability and wind shear), but as any severe weather forecaster can attest, having some favorable factors in place doesn’t guarantee tornadoes. Our physical understanding indicates mixed signals–some ingredients may increase (instability), while others may decrease (shear), in a warmer world. The other key ingredient (storm-scale lift), and to varying extents moisture, instability and shear, depend mostly on day-to-day patterns, and often, even minute-to-minute local weather.” － NOAA SPC: The Online Tornado FAQ, by Roger Edwards.
Just for some rational thought, the longest path ever carved by a tornado was 218 miles long during an EF-5 tornado associated with the Tri-State Tornado Outbreak of March 18, 1925. That particular tornado was on the ground for 3 hours and 37 minutes. Did global warming play a role in that tornado outbreak? Probably not.
As far as Tornado Alley is concerned, the study he was alluding to (Gensini and Brooks, 2018) did not specifically state that [man-made] climate change was responsible for the eastward shift of Tornado Alley. Rather, the study found:
“Negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast United States.” － Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency (Gensini and Brooks, 2018)
Figure 5. While the most tornadoes reported in the U.S. still occur in the Plains, there has been a slight decline in the frequency with a larger increase relative to what is considered “normal” along the Mississippi River. － Gensini and Brooks (2018).
The study also concluded that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding whether anthropogenic forcing of the climate system or natural internal variability may be driving these changes:⁴
“At this point, it is unclear whether the observed trends in tornado environment and report frequency are due to natural variability or being altered by anthropogenic forcing on the climate system.“ － Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency (Gensini and Brooks, 2018)
So, it is clearly evident that Wallace-Wells didn’t actually read the study. If he had done so, he would have accurately reported what the author’s explicitly stated in the paper. I’m not surprised, however, this inaccurate representation of findings in climate studies has unfortunately become a commonplace in mainstream journalism.
There is also evidence that the timing of tornado season has shifted as well, however, causes of this shift is once again unknown. Is it natural variability? Is it man-made climate change? Is it both? Nobody has a clue. A study published in the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), Long and Stoy (2014), found that peak tornado activity within Tornado Alley has become earlier by approximately seven days over the last 60 years (Figure 6).⁵
Figure 6. “Plot of peak tornado activity for the heart of Tornado Alley. The Julian day that corresponds to peak tornado activity plotted for each 10 year moving window by variable type for the region, with linear trendlines. The years on the x axis represent the last year of the associated 10‐year moving average (e.g., 1963 represents 1954–1963).” － Long and Stoy (2014).
As far as actual United States tornado frequency trends are concerned, there has been little change in EF-1 to EF-5 tornadoes since relatively good records began in the 1950s (Figure 7).
Figure 7. U.S. annual tornado count, excluding EF-0’s; 1954 － 2020.
Violent tornadoes, which are rated as EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, have been on a noteworthy decline over the last several decades (Figure 8). In fact, 2018 was the first year on record with no reported violent tornadoes.
I contacted Dr. Roy Spencer, a principle research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and he affirmed what the statistics show:
“The incidence of strong to violent tornadoes in the U.S. has gone down 50% since statistics began in the 1950s. The limiting factor in strong tornado formation is a cold air mass, not warmth, otherwise the tropics would be filled with tornadoes, which is not the case.“ － Dr. Roy Spencer, Ph.D.
Figure 8. U.S. annual violent tornado (EF-4 or EF-5) counts; 1954 － 2020.
In order to get a more accurate, but not perfect, representation of United States tornado climatology, I disregarded EF-0 tornadoes from the dataset. My reasoning behind this is because tornado reports have increased substantially over the last several decades due to over a doubling of Great Plains population since 1950, and therefore increased public awareness; more photographic evidence and video footage; the introduction of NEXRAD Doppler radar in the 1990s; and an overall increased effort to document tornadoes for both meteorological analysis and climate studies. Tornadoes of EF-1 intensity, and especially EF-2 and higher, are the most likely to be documented with fairly consistent accuracy since the mid-1950s and early-1960s.
Both the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) agree:⁶ ⁷
“Since 1920, the number of tornadoes reported annually in the United States has increased by an order of magnitude, but this increase reflects greater effectiveness in collecting tornado reports (Doswell and Burgess, 1988; Grazulis, 1993; Grazulis et al., 1998). On the other hand, severe tornadoes are not easily overlooked. Restricting the analysis to very strong and violent tornadoes results in a much different assessment (Figure 2.38) showing little long-term change, though some years like 1974 show a very large number of tornadoes.“ － IPCC TAR Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, WG1, Chapter 2, Observed Climate Variability and Change, Section 2.7
“A particular challenge in quantifying the existence and intensity of these events arises from the data source: rather than measurements, the occurrence of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is determined by visual sightings by eyewitnesses (such as “storm spotters” and law enforcement officials) or post-storm damage assessments. The reporting has been susceptible to changes in population density, modifications to reporting procedures and training, the introduction of video and social media, and so on. These have led to systematic, non-meteorological biases in the long-term data record.” － NCA4, Chapter 9, Section 9.3
Closing Remarks
As an aspiring meteorologist myself, I am by no means a denier of man-made climate change. Indeed, I am in solid agreement with almost every scientist that mankind is responsible for at least some of the warming observed globally since around 1950.
While I do not think climate change is a serious threat to humanity, I do think it’s a serious issue that needs to be discussed within the scientific community. One of the things I love about science is being able to debate things, do research, and explore the unknown.
Extreme weather has always been around as long as documentation, official or unofficial, goes back. Ridiculous and/or sometimes extreme claims made by a select few scientists, politicians, and even on occasion, the media is usually based on climate model projections, not actual real-world observations. Those who choose blame every single weather event, or so it seems, on man-made climate change are not only a roadblock for the progress of our scientific understanding of the issue, they’re just practicing a scientifically meaningless self-fulfilling prophecy.
REFERENCES
[1] Cappucci, Matthew. “How the Deadly, Destructive Tornadoes Ravaged Nashville on Tuesday.” The Washington Post. WP Company, March 3, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/03/how-deadly-destructive-tornadoes-ravaged-nashville-tuesday/.
[2] “March 2-3, 2020 Tornadoes and Severe Weather.” National Weather Service. NOAAs National Weather Service, March 12, 2020. https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20200303.
[3] Edwards, Roger. “The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC).” The Online Tornado FAQ (by Roger Edwards, SPC). NOAA SPC, April 19, 2018. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/index.html.
[4] Gensini, Vittorio A., and Harold E. Brooks. “Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency.” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1, no. 1 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0048-2.
[5] Long, John A., and Paul C. Stoy. “Peak Tornado Activity Is Occurring Earlier in the Heart of ‘Tornado Alley.’” Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 17 (October 2014): 6259–64. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061385.
[6] Folland, C.K., T.R. Karl, J.R. Christy, R.A. Clarke, G.V. Gruza, J. Jouzel, M.E. Mann, J. Oerlemans, M.J. Salinger and S.-W. Wang,
2001: Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer,
P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 881pp. (PDF)
[7] Kossin, J.P., T. Hall, T. Knutson, K.E. Kunkel, R.J. Trapp, D.E. Waliser, and M.F. Wehner, 2017: Extreme storms. In: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 257-276, doi:10.7930/J07S7KXX.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Some COVID-19 vs. Malaria Numbers: Countries with Malaria have Virtually no Coronavirus Cases Report

Some COVID-19 vs. Malaria Numbers: Countries with Malaria have Virtually no Coronavirus Cases Reported

…and countries with many COVID-19 cases have little to no malaria .
This subject has been making the rounds in recent days , much more in social media and lesser-known news outlets and not so much the mainstream media… There is now considerable evidence from several countries ( China , S. Korea , France , others ? )
that anti-malarial drugs , especially chloroquine , is effective at greatly reducing COVID-19 symptoms , and possibly preventing infection in the first place .
I downloaded the latest COVID-19 reported cases by country from the WHO as well as the incidence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calculated the COVID-19 incidence as the number per million total population , while the malaria numbers are reported per 1,000 “ population at risk ” .
It took a few hours to line everything up in Excel because of differences in naming of a few countries , no malaria data for countries where malaria has been essentially eradicated , and many countries where no COVID-19 cases have been reported .
I only have time to give some interesting bottom-line numbers .
I encourage others to investigate this for themselves to see if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all 234 countries by incidence of malaria , and compute the average incidence of malaria and the average incidence of COVID-19 , the results are simply amazing : those countries with malaria have virtually no COVID-19 cases , and those countries with many COVID-19 cases have little to no malaria .
Here are the averages for the three country groupings : I tried plotting the individual country data on a graph but the relationship is so non-linear ( almost all of the data lie on the horizontal and vertical axes ) that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based upon the total number of COVID-19 cases as of March 17 , 2020 as tallied by the WHO .

…and countries with many COVID-19 cases have little to no malaria.
This subject has been making the rounds in recent days, much more in social media and lesser-known news outlets and not so much the mainstream media…
There is now considerable evidence from several countries (China, S. Korea, France, others?) that anti-malarial drugs, especially chloroquine, is effective at greatly reducing COVID-19 symptoms, and possibly preventing infection in the first place.
I downloaded the latest COVID-19 reported cases by country from the WHO as well as the incidence of malaria cases as of 2017. I calculated the COVID-19 incidence as the number per million total population, while the malaria numbers are reported per 1,000 “population at risk”.
It took a few hours to line everything up in Excel because of differences in naming of a few countries, no malaria data for countries where malaria has been essentially eradicated, and many countries where no COVID-19 cases have been reported.
I only have time to give some interesting bottom-line numbers. I encourage others to investigate this for themselves to see if the relationships are real.
If I sort all 234 countries by incidence of malaria, and compute the average incidence of malaria and the average incidence of COVID-19, the results are simply amazing: those countries with malaria have virtually no COVID-19 cases, and those countries with many COVID-19 cases have little to no malaria.
Here are the averages for the three country groupings:
Top 40 Malaria countries:
212.24 malaria per thousand = 0.2 COVID-19 cases per million
Next 40 Malaria countries:
7.30 malaria per thousand = 10.1 COVID-19 cases per million
Remaining 154 (non-)Malaria countries:
0.00 malaria per thousand = 68.7 COVID-19 cases per million
I tried plotting the individual country data on a graph but the relationship is so non-linear (almost all of the data lie on the horizontal and vertical axes) that the graph is almost useless.
This is based upon the total number of COVID-19 cases as of March 17, 2020 as tallied by the WHO.
via Roy Spencer, PhD.
https://ift.tt/2UlRKfS
March 18, 2020 at 03:15PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Books to Die For

Books to Die For

It ’ s looking very much like an awful lot of us are destined to have lot of time on our hands .
So I thought it might be helpful if I were to heartily recommend a number of books that you could buy to wile away the time ( assuming Amazon stays up , of course ) .
If you have recommendations for any other books to keep one ’ s mind off killer viruses , then please feel free to share in the comments section below .
The Cure for Catastrophe – How we can stop manufacturing natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A fascinating and well-informed historical account of man ’ s response to disasters and how , in many respects , we have proven to be our own worst enemy .
Lots of stuff on earthquakes , storms , tsunamis , etc .
And yes , there is a chapter on global warming , which , I have to say , wasn ’ t written with the succour of CliScep readers in mind .
Michael Mann says he liked it but I suspect he can ’ t have actually read it – it isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be in his review .
The climate sceptic ’ s bible .
You ’ re supposed to read this and be taken in by its catalogue of lies , half-truths and garbled logic .
I prefer Mat Ridley ’ s review : ‘ …one of the best science books in years… ’ A chilling account of the 1980 Titan ICBM disaster in Damascus , Arkansas , interleaved with a general history of Cold War nuclear incidents that makes you realise that we are all actually quite lucky to be still alive .
Reads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ change alarmism in perspective since it illustrates where the existential threat truly lies ( coronavirus exempted , of course ) .
Atomic Accidents – A history of nuclear meltdowns and disasters from the Ozark Mountains to Fukushima , James Mahaffey , ISBN 978-1-60598-680-7 Okay , so I admit it , I have morbid tastes .
Even so , this is fascinating stuff written by a nuclear engineer who clearly knows his business .
He also writes with a wicked , dry gallows humour that I found most beguiling .
Behave – The biology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Robert Sapolsky , ISBN 978-0-09957-506-1 A tour de force account of the factors that determine our behaviour , including the neurological , hormonal , genetic , cultural and evolutionary .
Hugely illuminating and thought-provoking .
After I read it I was still a twat , but at least I now know why .
A bit long in the tooth now , but this book would still serve as a good appetiser to reading ‘ Behave ’ .
I include this book in my list , not so much because it has something @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it says it in a way that serves as an exemplar to all wannabe science writers .
Darwin ’ s Dangerous Idea – Evolution and the meanings of life , Daniel C. Dennett , ISBN 0-14-016734-X I include this book in my list , not so much because it serves as an exemplar to all wannabe science writers but because it has something vitally import to say .
The latest Dennett that I am reading is ‘ From Bacteria to Bach and Back Again ’ , but the jury is still out on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the long-running scientific debate between the author and Stephen Hawking regarding black holes and their implications for entropy and information .
Also provides the best account I have read so far regarding the holographic principle in cosmology ( and sad to admit , I ’ ve read quite a few ) .
Oh , and did I say it is all written in a very accessible style ?
The Book of Why – The New Science of Cause and Effect , Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie , ISBN 978-0-141-98241-0 This book inspired the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A Brief Primer on Causality .
There are very few books that I would class as life-changing .
This is one of them .
Read it and then wow them all at your next bring-your-own-causation party .
How Not to be Wrong – The hidden maths of everyday life , Jordon Ellenberg , ISBN 978-0—19604-2 The best book I have read on statistics and how they can mislead .
Works very well as a companion to ‘ The Book of Why ’ .
The Music of the Primes – Why an unsolved problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ISBN 1-84115-579-9 Who knew prime numbers could be so intriguing ?
When one reads something like this one can ’ t help but feel that maths is far cleverer than any of us .
The Hidden Reality – Parallel Universes and the deep laws of the cosmos , Brian Greene , ISBN 978-0-141-02981-8 Brian Greene is one of my favourite science writers and this is probably his best one yet .
If you truly are in need of a mind-fuck , then look no further .
This stuff brings it home to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for wonderment and bafflement , and raises far more deep questions , than any religion .
Not Exactly – In praise of vagueness , Kees Van Deemter , ISBN 978-019-964573-2 Vagueness is an often overlooked aspect of uncertainty .
This thoughtful book provides a well-written background to the philosophy of vagueness , its paradoxes and the efforts that have been made to solve them .
Perhaps a bit niche for some , but I liked it .
The Strangest Man – The hidden life of Paul Dirac quantum genius , Graham Farmello , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should add a number of books that are considered classics in their genre .
If you haven ’ t already read them , then now is the perfect opportunity to do so : That ’ s probably enough to be going on with now .
As I say , you might want to join in and add a few of your own recommendations .

It’s looking very much like an awful lot of us are destined to have lot of time on our hands. So I thought it might be helpful if I were to heartily recommend a number of books that you could buy to wile away the time (assuming Amazon stays up, of course). If you have recommendations for any other books to keep one’s mind off killer viruses, then please feel free to share in the comments section below.
The Cure for Catastrophe – How we can stop manufacturing natural disasters, Robert Muir-Wood, ISBN 978-1-78607-005-0
A fascinating and well-informed historical account of man’s response to disasters and how, in many respects, we have proven to be our own worst enemy. Lots of stuff on earthquakes, storms, tsunamis, etc. And yes, there is a chapter on global warming, which, I have to say, wasn’t written with the succour of CliScep readers in mind. Michael Mann says he liked it but I suspect he can’t have actually read it – it isn’t what he claimed it to be in his review.
The Hockey Stick Illusion, A.W. Montford, ISBN 978-0-95731-352-1
The climate sceptic’s bible. You’re supposed to read this and be taken in by its catalogue of lies, half-truths and garbled logic. I prefer Mat Ridley’s review: ‘…one of the best science books in years…’
Command and Control, Eric Schlosser, ISBN 978-0-141-03791-2
A chilling account of the 1980 Titan ICBM disaster in Damascus, Arkansas, interleaved with a general history of Cold War nuclear incidents that makes you realise that we are all actually quite lucky to be still alive. Reads like a thriller, and puts climate change alarmism in perspective since it illustrates where the existential threat truly lies (coronavirus exempted, of course).
Atomic Accidents – A history of nuclear meltdowns and disasters from the Ozark Mountains to Fukushima, James Mahaffey, ISBN 978-1-60598-680-7
Okay, so I admit it, I have morbid tastes. Even so, this is fascinating stuff written by a nuclear engineer who clearly knows his business. He also writes with a wicked, dry gallows humour that I found most beguiling.
Behave – The biology of humans at our best and worst, Robert Sapolsky, ISBN 978-0-09957-506-1
A tour de force account of the factors that determine our behaviour, including the neurological, hormonal, genetic, cultural and evolutionary. Hugely illuminating and thought-provoking. After I read it I was still a twat, but at least I now know why.
The Origins of Virtue, Matt Ridley, ISBN 0-14-024404-2
A bit long in the tooth now, but this book would still serve as a good appetiser to reading ‘Behave’. I include this book in my list, not so much because it has something vitally import to say, but because it says it in a way that serves as an exemplar to all wannabe science writers.
Darwin’s Dangerous Idea – Evolution and the meanings of life, Daniel C. Dennett, ISBN 0-14-016734-X
I include this book in my list, not so much because it serves as an exemplar to all wannabe science writers but because it has something vitally import to say. The latest Dennett that I am reading is ‘From Bacteria to Bach and Back Again’, but the jury is still out on that one.
The Black Hole War, Leonard Susskind, ISBN 978-0-316-01641-4
A first-hand account of the long-running scientific debate between the author and Stephen Hawking regarding black holes and their implications for entropy and information. Also provides the best account I have read so far regarding the holographic principle in cosmology (and sad to admit, I’ve read quite a few). Oh, and did I say it is all written in a very accessible style?
The Book of Why – The New Science of Cause and Effect, Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie, ISBN 978-0-141-98241-0
This book inspired the writing of my most recent posting: A Brief Primer on Causality. There are very few books that I would class as life-changing. This is one of them. Read it and then wow them all at your next bring-your-own-causation party.
How Not to be Wrong – The hidden maths of everyday life, Jordon Ellenberg, ISBN 978-0—19604-2
The best book I have read on statistics and how they can mislead. Works very well as a companion to ‘The Book of Why’.
The Music of the Primes – Why an unsolved problem in mathematics matters, Marcus de Sautoy, ISBN 1-84115-579-9
Who knew prime numbers could be so intriguing? When one reads something like this one can’t help but feel that maths is far cleverer than any of us.
The Hidden Reality – Parallel Universes and the deep laws of the cosmos, Brian Greene, ISBN 978-0-141-02981-8
Brian Greene is one of my favourite science writers and this is probably his best one yet. If you truly are in need of a mind-fuck, then look no further. This stuff brings it home to you that science provides far more scope for wonderment and bafflement, and raises far more deep questions, than any religion.
Not Exactly – In praise of vagueness, Kees Van Deemter, ISBN 978-019-964573-2
Vagueness is an often overlooked aspect of uncertainty. This thoughtful book provides a well-written background to the philosophy of vagueness, its paradoxes and the efforts that have been made to solve them. Perhaps a bit niche for some, but I liked it.
The Strangest Man – The hidden life of Paul Dirac quantum genius, Graham Farmello, ISBN 978-0-571-22286-5
Paul Dirac is my hero.
To the above list I should add a number of books that are considered classics in their genre. If you haven’t already read them, then now is the perfect opportunity to do so:
The Selfish Gene, Richard Dawkins
The Character of Physical Law, Richard Feynman
The Stuff of thought, Steven Pinker
In Search of Schrodinger’s Cat, John Gribbin
The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
That’s probably enough to be going on with now. As I say, you might want to join in and add a few of your own recommendations.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--No, Climate Didn’t Cause Coronavirus

No, Climate Didn’t Cause Coronavirus

It didn ’ t take long for climatists to tie coronavirus to global warming/climate change ; IOW , “ It ’ s our fault for using fossil fuels.
” And also : “ Changes to fight coronavirus also fight climate change.
” Activists have a long record of claiming that de-carbonizing is a snake oil curing all of society ’ s ills .
The latest memes give the flavor of the warped thinking .
• The threats facing our planet are interconnected ArabNews10:27 • How Science Denial In High Places Accelerates Both COVID-19 and Climate Change Ecosystem Marketplace10:12 • Coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to deadly threats The Gazette07:15 • The Coronavirus and the Climate Movement The New Yorker07:04 • The carbon disruption is here , disguised as a pandemic ImpactAlpha04:10 • For pandemics and climate change , voluntary measures aren ’ t enough Grist Magazine03:58 • “ In a way , the coronavirus is climate change ’ s publicist ” Why now is the time to focus on our… Vogue India02:43 • Liberals See Good from Coronavirus : Less Pollution NewsMax20:22 Tue , 17 Mar • How changes brought on by coronavirus could help tackle the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mar • Think Tank Shifts From Climate Science Denial To COVID Denial Talking Points Memo16:11 Tue , 17 Mar • Coronavirus , climate crisis , conflicts : Meme-ing our way through the ‘ apocalypse ’ The Conversation ( Canada ) 13:58 Tue , 17 Mar • Green Jobs Are the Answer to the Coronavirus Recession The New Republic14:19 • How COVID-19 Is Like Climate Change Scientific American11:07 Tue , 17 Mar • Climate change could make the coronavirus seem like the good old days .
GreenBiz • Viruses expected to increase with global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distancing ?
You might be fighting climate change , too New Zealand Herald20:45 Mon , 16 Mar • Can the changes brought on by coronavirus help tackle climate change ?
Australian Geographic20:42 Mon , 16 Ma Climatists have a pattern of blaming every bad thing on CO2 in order to promote their agenda .
Thus adding in this virus is an extension of the practice of attributing exteme weather events to global warming/climate change .
A previous post provides Mike Hulme ’ s analysis of the flawed logic , as well as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to such feverish reporting is provided by Mike Hulme in a publication : Attributing Weather Extremes to ‘ Climate Change ’ : a Review ( here ) .
He has an insider ’ s perspective on this issue , and is certainly among the committed on global warming ( color him concerned ) .
Yet here he writes objectively to inform us on X-weather , without advocacy : real science journalism and a public service , really .
In this third and final review I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the field in four stages : motivations for extreme weather attribution , methods of attribution , some example case studies and the politics of weather event Attribution .
As many climate scientists can attest , following the latest meteorological extreme one of the most frequent questions asked by media journalists and other interested parties is : ‘ Was this weather event caused by climate change ?
’ In recent decades the meaning of climate change in popular western discourse has changed from being a descriptive index of a change in climate ( as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has occurred ’ ) to becoming an independent causative agent ( as in ‘ climate change caused this event to happen ’ ) .
Rather than being a descriptive outcome of a chain of causal events affecting how weather is generated , climate change has been granted power to change worlds : political and social worlds as much as physical and ecological ones .
To be more precise then , what people mean when they ask the ‘ extreme weather blame ’ question is : ‘ Was this particular weather event caused by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by other human perturbations to the environment ?
’ In other words , can this meteorological event be attributed to human agency as opposed to some other form of agency ?
Hulme shows what drives scientists to pursue the “ extreme weather blame ” question , noting four motivational factors .
Why have climate scientists over the last ten years embarked upon research to provide an answer beyond the stock phrase ‘ no individual weather event can directly be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions ’ ?
There seem to be four possible motives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ question piques the scientific mind ; it acts as a spur to develop new rational understanding of physical processes and new analytic methods for studying them .
2.Adaptation A second argument , put forward by some , is that it is important to know whether or not specific instances of extreme weather are human-caused in order to improve the justification , planning and execution of climate adaptation .
3.Liability A third argument for pursuing an answer to the ‘ extreme weather blame ’ question is inspired by the possibility of pursuing legal liability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ specific loss and damage from extreme weather can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions – even if expressed in terms of increased risk rather than deterministically – then lawyers might get interested .
The liability motivation for research into weather event attribution also bisects the new international political agenda of ‘ loss and damage ’ which has emerged in the last two years .
.
.
The basic idea is to give recognition that loss and damage caused by climate change is legitimate ground for less developed countries to gain access to new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Persuasion A final reason for scientists to be investing in this area of climate science – a reason stated explicitly less often than the ones above and yet one which underlies much of the public interest in the ‘ extreme weather blame ’ question – is frustration with and argument about the invisibility of climate change .
.
.
If this is believed to be true – that only scientists can make climate change visible and real –then there is extra onus on scientists to answer the ‘ extreme weather blame ’ question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens of the reality of human-caused climate change .
Attribution Methods Attributing extreme weather events to human influences requires different approaches , of which four broad categories can be identified .
1 .
Physical Reasoning The first and most general approach to attributing extreme weather phenomena to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is to use simple physical reasoning .
General physical reasoning can only lead to broad qualitative statements such as ‘ this extreme weather is consistent with ’ what is known about the human-enhanced greenhouse effect .
Such statements offer neither deterministic nor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weather blame question.
’ It has given rise to a number of analogies to try to communicate the non-deterministic nature of extreme event attribution .
The three most widely used ones concern a loaded die ( the chance of rolling a ‘ 6 ’ has increased , but no single ‘ 6 ’ can be attributed to the biased die ) , the baseball player on steroids ( the number of home runs hit increases , but no single home run can be attributed to the steroids ) and the speeding car-driver ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dangerous conditions , but no specific accident can be attributed to the fast-driving ) .
2 .
Classical Statistical Analysis A second approach is to use classical statistical analysis of meteorological time series data to determine whether a particular weather ( or climatic ) extreme falls outside the range of what a ‘ normal ’ unperturbed climate might have delivered .
All such extreme event analyses of meteorological time series are at best able to detect outliers , but can never be decisive about possible cause ( s ) .
A different time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model simulations and seeks to determine whether trends in extreme weather predicted by climate models have been observed in meteorological statistics ( e.g .
Zwiers et al.
, 2011 , for temperature extremes and Min et al.
, 2011 , for precipitation extremes ) .
This approach is able to attribute statistically a trend in extreme weather to human influence , but not a specific weather event .
Again , the ‘ weather blame question ’ remains underdetermined .
3 .
Fractional Attributable Risk ( FAR ) Taking inspiration from the field of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fractional Attributable Risk ( FAR ) of an extreme weather ( or short-term climate ) event .
It asks the counterfactual question , ‘ How might the risk of a weather event be different in the presence of a specific causal agent in the climate system ?
’ The single observational record available to us , and which is analysed in the statistical methods described above , is inadequate for this task .
The solution is to use multiple model simulations of the climate system , first of all without the forcing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing ’ the weather event and then again with that external forcing introduced into the model .
The credibility of this method of weather attribution can be no greater than the overall credibility of the climate model ( s ) used – and may be less , depending on the ability of the model in question to simulate accurately the precise weather event under consideration at a given scale ( e.g .
a heatwave in continental Europe , a rain event in northern Thailand ) ( see Christidis et al.
, 2013a ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , more philosophical , approach to weather event attribution should also be mentioned .
This is the argument that since human influences on the climate system as a whole are now clearly established – through changing atmospheric composition , altered land surface characteristics , and so on – there can no longer be such a thing as a purely natural weather event .
All weather — whether it be a raging tempest or a still summer afternoon — is now attributable to human influence , at least to some extent .
Weather is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex system whose functioning as a system is now different to what it would otherwise have been had humans not been active .
Hulme provides a table of numerous such studies using various methods , along with his view of the findings .
It is likely that attribution of temperature-related extremes using FAR methods will always be more attainable than for other meteorological extremes such as rainfall and wind , which climate models generally find harder to simulate faithfully at the spatial scales involved .
As discussed below , this limitation on which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ studies can be conducted will place important constraints on any operational extreme weather attribution system .
Hulme concludes by discussing the political hunger for scientific proof in support of policy actions .
But Hulme et al .
( 2011 ) show why such ambitious claims are unlikely to be realised .
Investment in climate adaptation , they claim , is most needed “ … where vulnerability to meteorological hazard is high , not where meteorological hazards are most attributable to human influence ” ( p.765 ) .
Extreme weather attribution says nothing about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as opposed to exposure to risk ; it says nothing about the complex political , social and economic structures which mediate physical hazards .
And separating weather into two categories — ‘ human-caused ’ weather and ‘ tough-luck ’ weather – raises practical and ethical concerns about any subsequent investment allocation guidelines which excluded the victims of ‘ tough-luck weather ’ from benefiting from adaptation funds .
Contrary to the claims of some weather attribution scientists , the loss and damage agenda of the UNFCCC , as it is currently emerging , makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ tough-luck ’ weather .
“ Loss and damage impacts fall along a continuum , ranging from ‘ events ’ associated with variability around current climatic norms ( e.g.
, weather-related natural hazards ) to [ slow-onset ] ‘ processes ’ associated with future anticipated changes in climatic norms ” ( Warner et al.
, 2012:21 ) .
Although definitions and protocols have not yet been formally ratified , it seems unlikely that there will be a role for the sort of forensic science being offered by extreme weather attribution science .
Thank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ balanced and expert analysis .
It strikes me as being another element in a “ Quiet Storm of Lucidity ” .
Is that light the end of the tunnel or an oncoming train ?

It didn’t take long for climatists to tie coronavirus to global warming/climate change; IOW, “It’s our fault for using fossil fuels.” And also: “Changes to fight coronavirus also fight climate change.” Activists have a long record of claiming that de-carbonizing is a snake oil curing all of society’s ills. The latest memes give the flavor of the warped thinking.
Coronavirus hits a critical year for nature and climate chinadialogue11:08
The threats facing our planet are interconnected ArabNews10:27
Climate change helped coronavirus spread The Independent10:20
How Science Denial In High Places Accelerates Both COVID-19 and Climate Change Ecosystem Marketplace10:12
The Corona Connection The Nation08:14
Coronavirus and the climate: How we respond to deadly threats The Gazette07:15
The Coronavirus and the Climate Movement The New Yorker07:04
The carbon disruption is here, disguised as a pandemic ImpactAlpha04:10
For pandemics and climate change, voluntary measures aren’t enough Grist Magazine03:58
“In a way, the coronavirus is climate change’s publicist” Why now is the time to focus on our… Vogue India02:43
Liberals See Good from Coronavirus: Less Pollution NewsMax20:22 Tue, 17 Mar
How changes brought on by coronavirus could help tackle the climate crisis Corporate Knights17:19 Tue, 17 Mar
Think Tank Shifts From Climate Science Denial To COVID Denial Talking Points Memo16:11 Tue, 17 Mar
Coronavirus, climate crisis, conflicts: Meme-ing our way through the ‘apocalypse’ The Conversation (Canada)13:58 Tue, 17 Mar
Key readings about climate change and coronavirus Yale Climate Connections14:19
Green Jobs Are the Answer to the Coronavirus Recession The New Republic14:19
How COVID-19 Is Like Climate Change Scientific American11:07 Tue, 17 Mar
Climate change could make the coronavirus seem like the good old days. GreenBiz
Viruses expected to increase with global warming – expert The T
imes of Israel08:35 Tue, 17 Mar
Social distancing? You might be fighting climate change, too New Zealand Herald20:45 Mon, 16 Mar
Can the changes brought on by coronavirus help tackle climate change? Australian Geographic20:42 Mon, 16 Ma
Climatists have a pattern of blaming every bad thing on CO2 in order to promote their agenda. Thus adding in this virus is an extension of the practice of attributing exteme weather events to global warming/climate change. A previous post provides Mike Hulme’s analysis of the flawed logic, as well as the motivations behind these attempts.
The antidote to such feverish reporting is provided by Mike Hulme in a publication: Attributing Weather Extremes to ‘Climate Change’: a Review (here).
He has an insider’s perspective on this issue, and is certainly among the committed on global warming (color him concerned). Yet here he writes objectively to inform us on X-weather, without advocacy: real science journalism and a public service, really.
Overview
In this third and final review I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event attribution. The article proceeds by examining the field in four stages: motivations for extreme weather attribution, methods of attribution, some example case studies and the politics of weather event Attribution.
The X-Weather Issue
As many climate scientists can attest, following the latest meteorological extreme one of the most frequent questions asked by media journalists and other interested parties is: ‘Was this weather event caused by climate change?’
In recent decades the meaning of climate change in popular western discourse has changed from being a descriptive index of a change in climate (as in ‘evidence that a climatic change has occurred’) to becoming an independent causative agent (as in ‘climate change caused this event to happen’). Rather than being a descriptive outcome of a chain of causal events affecting how weather is generated, climate change has been granted power to change worlds: political and social worlds as much as physical and ecological ones.
To be more precise then, what people mean when they ask the ‘extreme weather blame’ question is: ‘Was this particular weather event caused by greenhouse gases emitted from human activities and/or by other human perturbations to the environment?’ In other words, can this meteorological event be attributed to human agency as opposed to some other form of agency?
The Motivations
Hulme shows what drives scientists to pursue the “extreme weather blame” question, noting four motivational factors.
Why have climate scientists over the last ten years embarked upon research to provide an answer beyond the stock phrase ‘no individual weather event can directly be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions’? There seem to be four possible motives.
1.Curiosity
The first is because the question piques the scientific mind; it acts as a spur to develop new rational understanding of physical processes and new analytic methods for studying them.
2.Adaptation
A second argument, put forward by some, is that it is important to know whether or not specific instances of extreme weather are human-caused in order to improve the justification, planning and execution of climate adaptation.
3.Liability
A third argument for pursuing an answer to the ‘extreme weather blame’ question is inspired by the possibility of pursuing legal liability for damages caused. . . If specific loss and damage from extreme weather can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions – even if expressed in terms of increased risk rather than deterministically – then lawyers might get interested.
The liability motivation for research into weather event attribution also bisects the new international political agenda of ‘loss and damage’ which has emerged in the last two years. . . The basic idea is to give recognition that loss and damage caused by climate change is legitimate ground for less developed countries to gain access to new international climate adaptation funds.
4. Persuasion
A final reason for scientists to be investing in this area of climate science – a reason stated explicitly less often than the ones above and yet one which underlies much of the public interest in the ‘extreme weather blame’ question – is frustration with and argument about the invisibility of climate change. . . If this is believed to be true – that only scientists can make climate change visible and real –then there is extra onus on scientists to answer the ‘extreme weather blame’ question as part of an effort to convince citizens of the reality of human-caused climate change.
Attribution Methods
Attributing extreme weather events to human influences requires different approaches, of which four broad categories can be identified.
1. Physical Reasoning
The first and most general approach to attributing extreme weather phenomena to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is to use simple physical reasoning.
General physical reasoning can only lead to broad qualitative statements such as ‘this extreme weather is consistent with’ what is known about the human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Such statements offer neither deterministic nor stochastic answers and clearly underdetermine the ‘weather blame question.’ It has given rise to a number of analogies to try to communicate the non-deterministic nature of extreme event attribution. The three most widely used ones concern a loaded die (the chance of rolling a ‘6’ has increased, but no single ‘6’ can be attributed to the biased die), the baseball player on steroids (the number of home runs hit increases, but no single home run can be attributed to the steroids) and the speeding car-driver (the chance of an accident increases in dangerous conditions, but no specific accident can be attributed to the fast-driving).
2. Classical Statistical Analysis
A second approach is to use classical statistical analysis of meteorological time series data to determine whether a particular weather (or climatic) extreme falls outside the range of what a ‘normal’ unperturbed climate might have delivered.
All such extreme event analyses of meteorological time series are at best able to detect outliers, but can never be decisive about possible cause(s). A different time series approach therefore combines observational data with model simulations and seeks to determine whether trends in extreme weather predicted by climate models have been observed in meteorological statistics (e.g. Zwiers et al., 2011, for temperature extremes and Min et al., 2011, for precipitation extremes). This approach is able to attribute statistically a trend in extreme weather to human influence, but not a specific weather event. Again, the ‘weather blame question’ remains underdetermined.
3. Fractional Attributable Risk (FAR)
Taking inspiration from the field of epidemiology, this method seeks to establish the Fractional Attributable Risk (FAR) of an extreme weather (or short-term climate) event. It asks the counterfactual question, ‘How might the risk of a weather event be different in the presence of a specific causal agent in the climate system?’
The single observational record available to us, and which is analysed in the statistical methods described above, is inadequate for this task. The solution is to use multiple model simulations of the climate system, first of all without the forcing agent(s) accused of ‘causing’ the weather event and then again with that external forcing introduced into the model.
The credibility of this method of weather attribution can be no greater than the overall credibility of the climate model(s) used – and may be less, depending on the ability of the model in question to simulate accurately the precise weather event under consideration at a given scale (e.g. a heatwave in continental Europe, a rain event in northern Thailand) (see Christidis et al., 2013a).
4. Eco-systems Philosophy
A fourth, more philosophical, approach to weather event attribution should also be mentioned. This is the argument that since human influences on the climate system as a whole are now clearly established – through changing atmospheric composition, altered land surface characteristics, and so on – there can no longer be such a thing as a purely natural weather event. All weather — whether it be a raging tempest or a still summer afternoon — is now attributable to human influence, at least to some extent. Weather is the local and momentary expression of a complex system whose functioning as a system is now different to what it would otherwise have been had humans not been active.
Results from Weather Attribution Studies
Hulme provides a table of numerous such studies using various methods, along with his view of the findings.
It is likely that attribution of temperature-related extremes using FAR methods will always be more attainable than for other meteorological extremes such as rainfall and wind, which climate models generally find harder to simulate faithfully at the spatial scales involved. As discussed below, this limitation on which weather events and in which regions attribution studies can be conducted will place important constraints on any operational extreme weather attribution system.
Political Dimensions of Weather Attribution
Hulme concludes by discussing the political hunger for scientific proof in support of policy actions.
But Hulme et al. (2011) show why such ambitious claims are unlikely to be realised. Investment in climate adaptation, they claim, is most needed “… where vulnerability to meteorological hazard is high, not where meteorological hazards are most attributable to human influence” (p.765). Extreme weather attribution says nothing about how damages are attributable to meteorological hazard as opposed to exposure to risk; it says nothing about the complex political, social and economic structures which mediate physical hazards.
And separating weather into two categories — ‘human-caused’ weather and ‘tough-luck’ weather – raises practical and ethical concerns about any subsequent investment allocation guidelines which excluded the victims of ‘tough-luck weather’ from benefiting from adaptation funds.
Contrary to the claims of some weather attribution scientists, the loss and damage agenda of the UNFCCC, as it is currently emerging, makes no distinction between ‘human-caused’ and ‘tough-luck’ weather. “Loss and damage impacts fall along a continuum, ranging from ‘events’ associated with variability around current climatic norms (e.g., weather-related natural hazards) to [slow-onset] ‘processes’ associated with future anticipated changes in climatic norms” (Warner et al., 2012:21). Although definitions and protocols have not yet been formally ratified, it seems unlikely that there will be a role for the sort of forensic science being offered by extreme weather attribution science.
Conclusion
Thank you Mike Hulme for a sane, balanced and expert analysis. It strikes me as being another element in a “Quiet Storm of Lucidity”.
Is that light the end of the tunnel or an oncoming train?
via Science Matters
https://ift.tt/3a30vlE
March 18, 2020 at 02:52PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Germany’s weather service starts ten-year forecast ‘to improve climate adaptation’

That ’ s the idea anyway .
They expect warmer weather to lead to drier conditions upto 2025 .
Perhaps a bit odd on the face of it , as the steamy tropics have rainforests whereas icy Antarctica is the driest continent on Earth .
– – – A new decade-long weather forecast made by Germany ’ s Meteorological Service ( DWD ) is supposed to improve the country ’ s climate change adaptation capabilities , says Clean Energy Wire .
“ Our new forecast for the next ten years fills the gap between existing climate forecasts for the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of the century , ” said DWD climatology head Tobias Fuchs .
The forecast project , supported by Germany ’ s research ministry , could be used by policymakers , business leaders and others to adapt their investment decisions to climate change , he added .
The forecast for the current decade for Germany estimates that average temperatures in the country could rise by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius , compared to the reference period 1981-2010 .
In some regions , temperatures could even rise by up to two degrees Celsius on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volumes are expected to stay below average until 2025 , which could be understood as a call to action for water providers to take precautions to ensure sufficient supply , Fuchs said .
Wind farm operators might also benefit from the long-term forecast by planning reserve capacities for low-wind years .

That’s the idea anyway. They expect warmer weather to lead to drier conditions upto 2025. Perhaps a bit odd on the face of it, as the steamy tropics have rainforests whereas icy Antarctica is the driest continent on Earth.
– – –
A new decade-long weather forecast made by Germany’s Meteorological Service (DWD) is supposed to improve the country’s climate change adaptation capabilities, says Clean Energy Wire.
“Our new forecast for the next ten years fills the gap between existing climate forecasts for the next months and long-term climate projections until the end of the century,” said DWD climatology head Tobias Fuchs.
The forecast project, supported by Germany’s research ministry, could be used by policymakers, business leaders and others to adapt their investment decisions to climate change, he added.
The forecast for the current decade for Germany estimates that average temperatures in the country could rise by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the reference period 1981-2010. In some regions, temperatures could even rise by up to two degrees Celsius on average by 2030.
Moreover, precipitation volumes are expected to stay below average until 2025, which could be understood as a call to action for water providers to take precautions to ensure sufficient supply, Fuchs said.
Wind farm operators might also benefit from the long-term forecast by planning reserve capacities for low-wind years.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
https://ift.tt/2QtD39D
March 18, 2020 at 02:21PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--T4 Capacity Auction For 2023/24

T4 Capacity Auction For 2023/24

The results of the latest Capacity Market auction have been announced , this covering winter 2023/24 .
Capacity amounting to 43.7 GW has been bought at a price of £15.97 , a cost of £700 million pa. A further 1.6 GW has been bought in previous auctions on 15-year contracts .
It is likely that up to another 10 GW will need to be bought in in future auctions for 2023/24 .
• Existing capacity is supplying 34 GW of the auction , incl : • New build only amounts to 1.8 GW , of which the only CCGT is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to Timera was already committed – in other words was going to be built anyway .
• Three new interconnectors , NSL , IFA2 & Eleclink , supply another 2.6 GW .
In short , the Capacity Market mechanism is still not incentivising new build CCGT , which will be desperately needed when coal power finally disappears , along with older nuclear and gas power plants .
The Committee on Climate Change reckon that we will need about 20 GW of new capacity to offset these retirements by 2030 .
The problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as OCGT , Demand Response and Storage , can out compete CCGT at the auction .
However , none of these options are capable of providing reliable , dispatchable power for more than a few hours , and not the days on end which may be necessary at times .
OCGT , while cheap from a capital cost point of view , has very high running costs , and is therefore only viable at times of peak power prices .
Worse still , DSR and Storage only have capacity for an hour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ useful for catering during periods of demand spikes , but useless for providing reliable baseload .
The auction also highlights the growing reliance on interconnectors to Europe .
Existing and new build will provide 5.3 GW of our standby capacity by 2023/24 , a highly risky arrangement .
Given that they are two-way arrangements , power will flow to the highest bidder , which means we may have to pay a premium to access our own generation .
Laughingly , as one our readers pointed out , our MPs seem to believe these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is is what his local MP , Caroline Dinenage , wrote on her Facebook , following a visit to the IFA2 terminal in Hampshire : “ …The Interconnector is projected to go live later this year and will be capable of exchanging 1,000 MW of power between Britain and France , enough to run around 1,000,000 homes .
National Grid estimate that their interconnectors save over 17,000 tonnes of CO2 per month .
IFA2 is a great opportunity for the Gosport constituency to play a huge part in the UK ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reminded her in a letter , an interconnector does not create any power but merely passes on whatever the market dictates and Holland , Belgium and France have a mix of power sources .
They are also connected to the European Grid so the power could have come from anywhere .
But as long as the carbon dioxide does not appear against the UK ’ s tally , that is somebody else ’ s problem .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/CM/Auction-Results-1.aspx
The results of the latest Capacity Market auction have been announced, this covering winter 2023/24.
Capacity amounting to 43.7 GW has been bought at a price of £15.97, a cost of £700 million pa. A further 1.6 GW has been bought in previous auctions on 15-year contracts. It is likely that up to another 10 GW will need to be bought in in future auctions for 2023/24.
The main highlights are:
Existing capacity is supplying 34 GW of the auction, incl:
1.3 GW Coal
18.3 GW CCGT
4.5 GW Combined Heat & Power
4.0 GW Nuclear
New build only amounts to 1.8 GW, of which the only CCGT is Keadby (0.8 GW), which according to Timera was already committed – in other words was going to be built anyway.
Three new interconnectors, NSL, IFA2 & Eleclink, supply another 2.6 GW.
In short, the Capacity Market mechanism is still not incentivising new build CCGT, which will be desperately needed when coal power finally disappears, along with older nuclear and gas power plants.
The Committee on Climate Change reckon that we will need about 20 GW of new capacity to offset these retirements by 2030.
The problem is that lower capital costs alternatives, such as OCGT, Demand Response and Storage, can out compete CCGT at the auction. However, none of these options are capable of providing reliable, dispatchable power for more than a few hours, and not the days on end which may be necessary at times.
OCGT, while cheap from a capital cost point of view, has very high running costs, and is therefore only viable at times of peak power prices. Worse still, DSR and Storage only have capacity for an hour or so. All of these are useful for catering during periods of demand spikes, but useless for providing reliable baseload.
The auction also highlights the growing reliance on interconnectors to Europe. Existing and new build will provide 5.3 GW of our standby capacity by 2023/24, a highly risky arrangement. Given that they are two-way arrangements, power will flow to the highest bidder, which means we may have to pay a premium to access our own generation.
Laughingly, as one our readers pointed out, our MPs seem to believe these interconnectors are “zero carbon”. This is is what his local MP, Caroline Dinenage, wrote on her Facebook, following a visit to the IFA2 terminal in Hampshire:
“…The Interconnector is projected to go live later this year and will be capable of exchanging 1,000 MW of power between Britain and France, enough to run around 1,000,000 homes with zero carbon power .
National Grid estimate that their interconnectors save over 17,000 tonnes of CO2 per month. IFA2 is a great opportunity for the Gosport constituency to play a huge part in the UK’s carbon net-zero targets…”
As he inconveniently reminded her in a letter, an interconnector does not create any power but merely passes on whatever the market dictates and Holland, Belgium and France have a mix of power sources. They are also connected to the European Grid so the power could have come from anywhere.
But as long as the carbon dioxide does not appear against the UK’s tally, that is somebody else’s problem.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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March 18, 2020 at 01:06PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--John Kerry and His Climate Clown-Science

From The Institute for Energy Research Joe Biden ’ s “ confidants ” are throwing out names for cabinet positions .
Whether this is sophisticated political jockeying or the equivalent of a frat-house bull session is unknown , but the first name on the list at Axios makes us dearly hope it is the latter .
The first bullet point on their list reads : “ John Kerry would love to take a new Cabinet position devoted to climate change… ” This possibility is emblematic of sorry state of climate policy .
John Kerry has proven he is totally ignorant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nevertheless , while he ridicules those who know more , he is aided and abetted by the media .
In a widely covered speech in Jakarta in 2014 , Kerry asserted that climate change is “ the world ’ s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.
” He also went to some lengths to lay out the basics of climate science .
After invoking the requisite “ 97 percent of scientists ” cliché , Kerry goes off script ( or we can hope it was off script ) to explain how simple it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But this is not tough .
This is simple .
Kids at the earliest age can understand this.
” It is worth watching the video just to get a sense of the condescension and derision toward skeptics .
Here is his description of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas : “ Try and picture a very thin layer of gases – a quarter-inch , half an inch , somewhere in that vicinity – that ’ s how thick it is .
It ’ s in our atmosphere .
It ’ s way up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Don ’ t bother going outside to look for it .
Kerry ’ s is an absolutely cockamamie description of greenhouse gasses in general and CO2 in particular .
CO2 is not “ way up there at the edge.
” It is all through the atmosphere .
It is not a quarter or half an inch thick—it is part of the many-miles thick atmosphere .
It seems he may have been using talking points from the twenty-years-earlier debate on ozone .
Ozone is mostly “ way up there ” and if isolated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a layer 3 mm thick .
If so , Kerry confused an abstract description of ozone ( O3 ) for the reality of CO2 .
More notable than his confusion is his confidence in his ignorance .
He asserted that those who did not have his level of understanding were flat-Earthers with less comprehension than small children .
After misinforming the audience about the thin layer , way up there , he immediately adds : “ And for millions of years – literally millions of years – we know that layer has acted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – trapping the sun ’ s heat and warming the surface of the Earth to the ideal , life-sustaining temperature .
Average temperature of the Earth has been about 57 degrees Fahrenheit , which keeps life going.
” Kerry ’ s implication that the Earth ’ s climate has been coddled by a steady 57-degree “ Ideal , life-sustaining temperature ” for “ literally millions of years ” is also cockamamie .

From The Institute for Energy Research
By David Kreutzer
March 13, 2020
Joe Biden’s “confidants” are throwing out names for cabinet positions. Whether this is sophisticated political jockeying or the equivalent of a frat-house bull session is unknown, but the first name on the list at Axios makes us dearly hope it is the latter. The first bullet point on their list reads: “John Kerry would love to take a new Cabinet position devoted to climate change…”
This possibility is emblematic of sorry state of climate policy. John Kerry has proven he is totally ignorant of the basics of climate science. Nevertheless, while he ridicules those who know more, he is aided and abetted by the media.
In a widely covered speech in Jakarta in 2014, Kerry asserted that climate change is “the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.” He also went to some lengths to lay out the basics of climate science.
After invoking the requisite “97 percent of scientists” cliché, Kerry goes off script (or we can hope it was off script) to explain how simple it is to understand climate science: “But this is not tough. This is simple. Kids at the earliest age can understand this.” It is worth watching the video just to get a sense of the condescension and derision toward skeptics.
Here is his description of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas:
“Try and picture a very thin layer of gases – a quarter-inch, half an inch, somewhere in that vicinity – that’s how thick it is. It’s in our atmosphere. It’s way up there at the edge of the atmosphere.”
Don’t bother going outside to look for it. Kerry’s is an absolutely cockamamie description of greenhouse gasses in general and CO2 in particular. CO2 is not “way up there at the edge.” It is all through the atmosphere. It is not a quarter or half an inch thick—it is part of the many-miles thick atmosphere. It seems he may have been using talking points from the twenty-years-earlier debate on ozone. Ozone is mostly “way up there” and if isolated and compressed to right-down-here pressures would form a layer 3 mm thick. If so, Kerry confused an abstract description of ozone (O3) for the reality of CO2. More notable than his confusion is his confidence in his ignorance. He asserted that those who did not have his level of understanding were flat-Earthers with less comprehension than small children.
After misinforming the audience about the thin layer, way up there, he immediately adds:
“And for millions of years – literally millions of years – we know that layer has acted like a thermal blanket for the planet – trapping the sun’s heat and warming the surface of the Earth to the ideal, life-sustaining temperature. Average temperature of the Earth has been about 57 degrees Fahrenheit, which keeps life going.”
Kerry’s implication that the Earth’s climate has been coddled by a steady 57-degree “Ideal, life-sustaining temperature” for “literally millions of years” is also cockamamie.
Full article here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--One day the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means

There will be greatly reduced food production , storage capabilities , transport , clean water and sewage .
– Rosco Mac ____________ One day the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means The empty shop shelves as a result of coronavirus panic show a glimpse of how serious the future will be in net zero carbon policies – only the empty shelves won ’ t be due to panic buying it will occur due to the drastic reductions in goods under the insane net net zero emissions policy .
There will be greatly reduced food production , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and sewage .
If Greta and her generation want to blame someone for their supposed stolen childhoods wait till their kids experience almost unprecedented adversity and poverty coming their way due to the insanity of the emergency due to a mere 400 molecules of CO2 in one million molecules of ordinary air and net zero emissions .
The advocates of such nonsense will be branded by history as the evil doers .
What we are seeing at the moment due to the loss of the ability to reason and resist panic merchants is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under the UN ’ s insane policies .
Look at the world today and the loss of wealth and stability due to a media driven frenzy of fear and multiply it several thousands of times and you get a glimpse of the future the IPCC and their puppeteer media personalities want to impose on you – thanks “ scientists ” and Greta etc etc .
One day the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means – can ’ t wait !
Hope there isn ’ t a prolonged cooling around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means appeared first on Ice Age Now .

There will be greatly reduced food production, storage capabilities, transport, clean water and sewage.
– Rosco Mac
____________
One day the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means
Rosco Mac
The empty shop shelves as a result of coronavirus panic show a glimpse of how serious the future will be in net zero carbon policies – only the empty shelves won’t be due to panic buying it will occur due to the drastic reductions in goods under the insane net net zero emissions policy.
There will be greatly reduced food production, storage capabilities, transport, clean water and sewage.
If Greta and her generation want to blame someone for their supposed stolen childhoods wait till their kids experience almost unprecedented adversity and poverty coming their way due to the insanity of the emergency due to a mere 400 molecules of CO2 in one million molecules of ordinary air and net zero emissions.
The advocates of such nonsense will be branded by history as the evil doers.
What we are seeing at the moment due to the loss of the ability to reason and resist panic merchants is only a taste of the potential adversity under the UN’s insane policies.
Look at the world today and the loss of wealth and stability due to a media driven frenzy of fear and multiply it several thousands of times and you get a glimpse of the future the IPCC and their puppeteer media personalities want to impose on you – thanks “scientists” and Greta etc etc.
One day the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means – can’t wait !
Hope there isn’t a prolonged cooling around the corner.
The post One day the populace will realise what a disaster net zero really means appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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March 18, 2020 at 12:52PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-19--New Paper: Observational Data Point to Less Warming

An important new study has found that when climate models are constrained by observational data , they yield lower estimates for climate sensitivity .
Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments , but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP6 ) simulate much stronger warming , apparently inconsistent with past assessments .
Here , we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models , enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14 % lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median , respectively , and over 14 and 8 % lower by 2090 , relative to 1995–2014 .
Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models , and in an ambitious mitigation scenario , the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target .
The post New Paper : Observational Data Point to Less Warming appeared first on The Global @ @ @ @ @ @ @

An important new study has found that when climate models are constrained by observational data, they yield lower estimates for climate sensitivity.
Abstract
Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14 and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995–2014. Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target.
Reference:
K. B. Tokarska, M. B. Stolpe, S. Sippel, E. M. Fischer, C. J. Smith, F. Lehner, R. Knutti, Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Sci. Adv. 6, eaaz9549 (2020). 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549
The post New Paper: Observational Data Point to Less Warming appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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March 19, 2020 at 05:02PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-19--An open letter to @GretaThunberg and other assorted climate wackadoodles

So you got what you wanted .
Airplanes , industry , jobs , restaurants , recreation , and schools are @ @ @ @ @ we have fear , poverty , misery , joblessness , economic ruin , and a @ @ @

Dear Greta,
So you got what you wanted.
“System change & Economic Slowdown” is a real thing now.
Airplanes, industry, jobs, restaurants, recreation, and schools are all shut down.
Instead we have fear, poverty, misery, joblessness, economic ruin, and a bleak future.
Happy now?
Anthony Watts
(and thousands of WUWT readers)


North Atlantic Oscillation

If you had not noticed ( ! )
, it has been a mild and wet start to the year here in the UK , and also across in NW Europe .
No doubt this will be linked to global warming in due course , but in fact it is simply weather , as the CET chart below proves : Since the year started , temperatures have consistently been within the normal band .
In other the sort of temperatures commonly seen at this time of year .
However , they have also been consistently in the top half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between cold and warm , as would happen most years .
The reason for the weather we have had is , of course , the jet stream , or more precisely the North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ) , which has been strongly and stubbornly positive all winter .
The Norwegian Centre for Climate Research CICERO spotted this mild weather coming back in December , and commented on 6th January : The unusual warm temperatures this winter and forecasts indicating milder winter conditions for January , February and March in Europe are partly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the North Atlantic Oscillation , or NAO .
This atmospheric circulation pattern explains well the weather we get in Europe , especially in winter .
Our own Met Office explains the NAO phenomenon : The term ‘ North Atlantic Oscillation ’ is used by meteorologists to refer to variations in the large-scale surface pressure gradient in the North Atlantic region .
In the average state of the atmosphere , the North Atlantic surface pressure is relatively high in the subtropics at latitudes 20°N to 40°N ( ‘ the Azores High ’ ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 70°N ( the ‘ Icelandic Low ’ ) .
The North-South pressure difference determines the strength of the westerly winds across the Atlantic and is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ) .
When the pressure difference is large , the NAO is positive and the westerly winds are strong and storms tend to be stronger , more frequent and travel across northwestern Europe .
When the pressure difference is small , they travel across southern Europe .
The NAO is also associated with changes in temperature and rainfall in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the NAO occur on a wide range of time-scales .
There are day-to-day changes associated with weather systems , and slower changes associated with seasonal and longer term variability , which is predictable from November for the coming winter .
When the NAO index is well above normal , there is an increased chance that seasonal temperatures will be higher than normal in northern Europe , northern Asia and South-East North America , and lower than normal in North Africa , North-East Canada and southern Greenland .
The patterns for precipitation ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with an increased chance of higher rainfall in northwest Europe and lower rainfall in southern Europe .
When the NAO index is well below normal , the tendencies are generally opposite .
The figures below show where seasonally-averaged temperatures and rainfall are likely to be in the top or bottom one third of observed values , given that the seasonal NAO index is in the top or bottom quarter of observed values .
There is one more part to the jigsaw , though .
As you may have noticed , Greenland should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough , that ’ s exactly what we find : But a colder Greenland also means a drier winter , as mild winters are driven by low pressure systems bringing warm air from the south .
In contrast , this winter has seen much colder , drier polar air trapped over Greenland .
And less snow means less build up on the ice cap : Weather forecasts suggest the return of low pressure to Greenland in the next week or two , so snowfall should accumulate again .
But it is unlikely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In turn we will probably see less accumulation than average come the end of summer .
Now , here ’ s £50 that says the usual suspects will blame that on global warming !
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
If you had not noticed (!), it has been a mild and wet start to the year here in the UK, and also across in NW Europe.
No doubt this will be linked to global warming in due course, but in fact it is simply weather, as the CET chart below proves:
Since the year started, temperatures have consistently been within the normal band. In other the sort of temperatures commonly seen at this time of year.
However, they have also been consistently in the top half of that band, rather than being spread between cold and warm, as would happen most years.
The reason for the weather we have had is, of course, the jet stream, or more precisely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has been strongly and stubbornly positive all winter.
The Norwegian Centre for Climate Research CICERO spotted this mild weather coming back in December, and commented on 6th January:
The unusual warm temperatures this winter and forecasts indicating milder winter conditions for January, February and March in Europe are partly due to an atmospheric circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. This atmospheric circulation pattern explains well the weather we get in Europe, especially in winter.
https://cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/nyheter/unseasonal-temperatures-for-norway#
Our own Met Office explains the NAO phenomenon:
The term ‘North Atlantic Oscillation’ is used by meteorologists to refer to variations in the large-scale surface pressure gradient in the North Atlantic region.
In the average state of the atmosphere, the North Atlantic surface pressure is relatively high in the subtropics at latitudes 20°N to 40°N (‘the Azores High’), and lower further North at latitudes 50°N to 70°N (the ‘Icelandic Low’). The North-South pressure difference determines the strength of the westerly winds across the Atlantic and is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
When the pressure difference is large, the NAO is positive and the westerly winds are strong and storms tend to be stronger, more frequent and travel across northwestern Europe. When the pressure difference is small, they travel across southern Europe. The NAO is also associated with changes in temperature and rainfall in Europe and North America.
The fluctuations in the NAO occur on a wide range of time-scales. There are day-to-day changes associated with weather systems, and slower changes associated with seasonal and longer term variability, which is predictable from November for the coming winter.
NAO impacts
Winter (December-January-February) conditions
When the NAO index is well above normal, there is an increased chance that seasonal temperatures will be higher than normal in northern Europe, northern Asia and South-East North America, and lower than normal in North Africa, North-East Canada and southern Greenland. The patterns for precipitation (rainfall, snowfall) are more localised, with an increased chance of higher rainfall in northwest Europe and lower rainfall in southern Europe. When the NAO index is well below normal, the tendencies are generally opposite. The figures below show where seasonally-averaged temperatures and rainfall are likely to be in the top or bottom one third of observed values, given that the seasonal NAO index is in the top or bottom quarter of observed values.
There is one more part to the jigsaw, though.
As you may have noticed, Greenland should be colder than usual. And sure enough, that’s exactly what we find:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=GL000004250&ds=15&dt=1
But a colder Greenland also means a drier winter, as mild winters are driven by low pressure systems bringing warm air from the south. In contrast, this winter has seen much colder, drier polar air trapped over Greenland.
And less snow means less build up on the ice cap:
Greenland Surface Ice Mass
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Weather forecasts suggest the return of low pressure to Greenland in the next week or two, so snowfall should accumulate again. But it is unlikely to offset the shortfall so far this winter. In turn we will probably see less accumulation than average come the end of summer.
Now, here’s £50 that says the usual suspects will blame that on global warming!
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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March 19, 2020 at 02:12PM