iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Double Nightmare: New York’s Reliable Nuclear Power Plants Shutdown During Coronavirus Disaster

With the coronavirus pandemic laying them to waste , New Yorkers have plenty to worry about .
Now their power @ @ @ @ @ thanks to their wind and solar obsessed Governor , Andrew Cuomo .
At Indian Point @ @ @ @ @ York City ) nuclear power plants have been providing safe , reliable and affordable electricity @ @ @ @ @ since 1962 .
In an astonishing move , Cuomo has determined to progressively shutdown both @ @ @ @ @ a combined capacity of 2,069 MW , on the delusional premise that he can replace @ @ @ @

With the coronavirus pandemic laying them to waste, New Yorkers have plenty to worry about. Now their power supply is under threat, thanks to their wind and solar obsessed Governor, Andrew Cuomo. At Indian Point (situated north of New York City) nuclear power plants have been providing safe, reliable and affordable electricity 24 x7 to New Yorkers since 1962. In an astonishing move, Cuomo has determined to progressively shutdown both of the plants, with a combined capacity of 2,069 MW, on the delusional premise that he can replace what […]
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April 26, 2020 at 02:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--UK & German Governments Plan to Turn Covid-19 into a Climate Action Opportunity

Even after personally recovering from Covid-19 , UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government considers climate action such a priority , they are jointly hosting a high level climate summit with Germany to try to divert recovery money into renewable energy .
Environment ministers from 30 countries are meeting in a two-day online conference in a bid to make progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions .
The gathering is called the “ Petersberg Climate Dialogue ” .
It will focus on how to organise a “ green ” economic recovery after the acute phase of the pandemic is over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ international agreement on ambitious carbon cuts despite the postponement of the key conference COP26 – previously scheduled for Glasgow in November ( now without a date ) .
Alok Sharma , the UK Climate Secretary and president of COP26 , said : “ I am committed to increasing global climate ambition so that we deliver on the Paris Agreement ( to stabilise temperature rise well below 2C ) .
“ The world must work together , as it has to deal with the coronavirus pandemic , to support a green and resilient recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue , we will come together to discuss how we can turn ambition into real action .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Even after personally recovering from Covid-19, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government considers climate action such a priority, they are jointly hosting a high level climate summit with Germany to try to divert recovery money into renewable energy.
Coronavirus recovery plan ‘must tackle climate change’
By Roger HarrabinBBC environment analyst
25 April 2020
Environment ministers from 30 countries are meeting in a two-day online conference in a bid to make progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
The gathering is called the “Petersberg Climate Dialogue”.
It will focus on how to organise a “green” economic recovery after the acute phase of the pandemic is over.
The other aim is to forge international agreement on ambitious carbon cuts despite the postponement of the key conference COP26 – previously scheduled for Glasgow in November (now without a date).
Alok Sharma, the UK Climate Secretary and president of COP26, said: “I am committed to increasing global climate ambition so that we deliver on the Paris Agreement (to stabilise temperature rise well below 2C).
“The world must work together, as it has to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to support a green and resilient recovery, which leaves no one behind.
“At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, we will come together to discuss how we can turn ambition into real action.”
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Gone by 2020: worse of better than thought?

Back to a previous series on the prediction when the glaciers in Glacier National Park would be gone .
In hat series , I focused primarily on two specific predictions ( with the end date of 2020 and 2030 ) and how these were presented to the public .
I knew there were other predictions around , but at that time I was not particularly interested in them , so didn ’ t search for these specifically .
In the meanwhile , I came across the NationalReview article “ Beware the Boogeyman Alarm ” by Kyle Smith and that contains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an array of predictions that I didn ’ t look at before .
Unfortunately , no links were provided .
Initially , I assumed that it would be difficult to trace back a 1923 article , but searched anyway .
I didn ’ t find the AP article , but I did find a news paper article from 1923 that refereced Associated Press .
It is publiced on Saturday December 29 , 1923 in the Medford Mail Tribune ( Medford , Oregon ) on page 5 .
The scan of that page doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but an OCR text is : Prof. Waterman studied the Sperry glacier and observed that ¼ to ⅓ of that glacier disappeared in the previous 18 years ( that means that his first datapoint is somewhere around 1905 ) .
He then made the projection that if that melt rate would continues , then the Sperry glacier would almost disappear in 25 years ( by 1948 ) .
From the use of “ rapid integration of glaciers “ , I could deduce that it was not the only glacier melting , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one off my list .
The Arizona Republic was also quick to find .
The article was published Thursday , September 17 , 1936 in the Arizona Republic from Phoenix on page 16 .
Same here , the scanned image is not freely available , but the OCR text is .
It is a Q & A and this is the question with the answer : That is similar to the 1923 projection by Prof. Waterman .
If the then rate would continue , the glaciers ( plural ) would be gone .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So , thirteen years later , we get again 25 years period ( 1961 ) .
Depending on what was meant by “ almost ” , it seems that the rate went down ( if it was the same rate , then the glaciers would be “ almost ” gone ) .
Then it gets more interesting .
Sixteen years later we get a reference to an “ AP report ” .
I didn ’ t find the “ report ” itself , but it was referenced in the The Post-Standard from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March 5 – 1952 on page 1 .
This is the OCR text : The most interesting thing is that the new projection is much further into the future .
We could deduce from that that the rate of retreat slowed down considerably .
If the projection was 25 years in 1936 ( so 1961 ) , yet in 1952 there is still 50 years than the retreat must have slowed down considerably… Fifty years from 1952 is 2002 .
The next projection from the NationalReview article is 2009 , but before that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the author seemed to have overlooked and which was the subject of the previous post in this series : Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park , 1850–2100 Myrna H. P. Hall , Daniel B. Fagre on February 2003 .
They used a mathematical model and it spitted out the 2030 end date : Now , if the melt rate slowed already down in the 1950s and the 2003 model comes up with a data that is almost 30 years into the future , then this tells us that the rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if the trend would have continued , then the glaciers would already be gone by that time .
Then we continue with the list of the NationalReview article .
The 2009 article in National Geographic is one of the first links that I encountered in my search for information on the melting of the glaciers in Glacier National Park and I got a 404 error when I visited that site .
I however know that this 2020 end date came from Daniel Fagre ( the same one who revised the end date of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
It was widely reported in media other than National Geographic .
For example at ThinkProgress : That first sentence sounds familiar .
Just as in the 1952 article , also the ThinkProgress article from 2009 started by making the claim that Glacier National Park may have to start looking for a new name .
Which is equally wrong , the name of the park comes from the glaciers 12,000 to 130,000 that sculpted the landscape , so in principle , no name has to be changed , even if all current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the New York Times article was also quickly found .
It is titled “ Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park ” and this is the projection at the start of the article : That is the weakest projection of them all .
It is also not clear who made this claim exactly and when .
The article seems to be an interview of Daniel Fagre , so it could well be him , but it also could be the interpretation of the journalist .
If Fagre made this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He then flip-flopped from 2030 ( in 2003 ) to 2020 ( in 2009 ) and ending in 2044 a few years later ( in 2014 ) .
There is however one projection that is missing from this list .
I found it on the US Geographical Survey web page Retreat of Glaciers in Glacier National Park and it came online at the end of 2016/beginning of 2017 ( although it is based on a 2010 paper ) .
This is the prediction range : The 2030 end date that was based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paper is now used as the lower threshold .
The upper threshold is now 2080 and this is based on the Brown et al , 2010 article in Global and Planetary Change .
This is the projection in that paper : Interesting , Brown investigated the Sperry glacier and that brings us full circle : the first projection from 1923 was also about this glacier .
Remember , in that projection , the Sperry glacier would be “ almost gone in 25 years time ” ( 1948 ) .
In hindsight , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now projected to have melted at the end of the 21th century .
There is almost 160 years between the first prediction and the end date of the latest paper… This is how it looks like when I add all projections in one graph : There are no gaps in the 157 years period .
When one projection passed the deadline , another one was issued or there was already at least one in place .
That is 157 years of solid doom mongering… Don ’ t get me wrong , the glaciers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is no doubt about that .
They lost significant amounts of ice since the first projections .
The question however is what is the cause ?
Also , how is the melt communicated to the public ?
The glaciers of Glacier National Park were already melting for a very long time .
The news paper clippings suggest from at least the beginning of the 20th century and from the Hall & Fagre paper we know that the melting started even earlier ( half of the 19th century , at the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glaciers were already on death row before humans were putting substantial amounts of CO in the atmosphere .
The botched predictions also show that the science behind the melting is highly uncertain , although that is not how it is communicated .
For example , the ThinkProgress article used the revised projection of Daniel Fagre as evidence that it was worse than thought : Therefor suggesting that the melting was a sign of the climate impact of our emissions .
In hindsight , it was in fact evidence that the projection was worse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate impact is occurring faster than the models projected is a matter of opinion , yet it was presented to the public as a matter of fact .
The reason why they get away with this is because they tend to focus on the latest projection , losing sight of what came before .
If any of the predictions of 1923 , 1936 , 1952 or 2009 were remotely true ( meaning that it really was worse than thought ) , then there would not have been any glacier left in Glacier National @ @ @ @ @ @ @ survived the projections over the past 100 years actually means that until now it was better than thought , but that is not really a compelling message to bring .

Back to a previous series on the prediction when the glaciers in Glacier National Park would be gone. In hat series, I focused primarily on two specific predictions (with the end date of 2020 and 2030) and how these were presented to the public. I knew there were other predictions around, but at that time I was not particularly interested in them, so didn’t search for these specifically.
In the meanwhile, I came across the NationalReview article “Beware the Boogeyman Alarm” by Kyle Smith and that contains this interesting paragraph (my emphasis) :
The glaciers in Glacier National Park have been shrinking for more than 100 years (as the USGS points out, since 1900 “the mean annual temperature for GNP and the surrounding region has increased [by] 1.8 times the global mean increase”), so on current trends they’ll be gone someday “in the next few decades.” Who knows how long current trends will last, though? A 1923 Associated Press report said the glaciers would “almost disappear” in 25 years. So, gone by 1948. In 1936, the Arizona Republic reported that the glaciers would “vanish within 25 years.” So, 1961. A 1952 AP report alluded to “naturalists” who said the glaciers would be gone in 50 years. So, 2002. In 2009, National Geographic News asked, “No More Glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020?” A New York Times report a few years ago pushed the date back to 2044.
That is quite an array of predictions that I didn’t look at before. Unfortunately, no links were provided. Initially, I assumed that it would be difficult to trace back a 1923 article, but searched anyway. I didn’t find the AP article, but I did find a news paper article from 1923 that refereced Associated Press. It is publiced on Saturday December 29, 1923 in the Medford Mail Tribune (Medford, Oregon) on page 5. The scan of that page doesn’t seem to be freely available, but an OCR text is (my emphasis) :
Glacier Park Melting at a Rapid Rate in Scientist’s Opinion CINCINNATI, Dec. 29. – (By the Associated Press) – The hot dry seasons of the past few years have caused rapid disintegration of glaciers in the Glacier National Park, Montana, professor W. G. Waterman of Northwestern university declared in an address today before the Geological section of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Sperry Glacier, studied by Professor Waterman, has lost one-quarter, or perhaps one-third of its ice in the past 18 years, he said. If this rapid retreat should continue, the professor added, the glacier would almost disappear in another 25 years, but he expressed the opinion that the long dry seasons of the past few years is over with probabilities of a lessening in the retreat.
Prof. Waterman studied the Sperry glacier and observed that ¼ to ⅓ of that glacier disappeared in the previous 18 years (that means that his first datapoint is somewhere around 1905). He then made the projection that if that melt rate would continues, then the Sperry glacier would almost disappear in 25 years (by 1948).
From the use of “rapid integration of glaciers“, I could deduce that it was not the only glacier melting, but other glaciers as well.
That is one off my list.
The Arizona Republic was also quick to find. The article was published Thursday, September 17, 1936 in the Arizona Republic from Phoenix on page 16. Same here, the scanned image is not freely available, but the OCR text is. It is a Q&A and this is the question with the answer (my emphasis) :
Q. Will the glaciers in Glacier National park eventually disappear? J. W.
A. Dr. F. E. Matthes of the United States Geological Survey estimates that at the present rate of regression the glaciers will vanish within 25 years.
That is similar to the 1923 projection by Prof. Waterman. If the then rate would continue, the glaciers (plural) would be gone. No “almost”, but totally. So, thirteen years later, we get again 25 years period (1961). Depending on what was meant by “almost”, it seems that the rate went down (if it was the same rate, then the glaciers would be “almost” gone).
Then it gets more interesting. Sixteen years later we get a reference to an “AP report”. I didn’t find the “report” itself, but it was referenced in the The Post-Standard from Syracuse (New York) on Wednesday March 5 – 1952 on page 1. This is the OCR text (my emphasis) :
GLACIER MELTING WEST GLACIER, Mont. (AP) – Montana’s Glacier Park may have to start looking for a new name. Naturalists say that 50 years from now it ‘ll be glacierless unless there’s a big change in Montana climate. The giant glaciers which gave the park its name are slowly melting away. Some are gone already. Every winter blizards shriek and swirl around the mountain peaks and replenish the glaciers with new snow, but summer’s hot sun take away more than winter adds.
The most interesting thing is that the new projection is much further into the future. We could deduce from that that the rate of retreat slowed down considerably. If the projection was 25 years in 1936 (so 1961), yet in 1952 there is still 50 years than the retreat must have slowed down considerably…
Fifty years from 1952 is 2002. The next projection from the NationalReview article is 2009, but before that there was another projection made in 2003 that the author seemed to have overlooked and which was the subject of the previous post in this series: Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850–2100 Myrna H. P. Hall, Daniel B. Fagre on February 2003. They used a mathematical model and it spitted out the 2030 end date:
We determined the melt rate and spatial distribution of glaciers under two possible future climate scenarios, one based on carbon dioxide–induced global warming and the other on a linear temperature extrapolation. Under the former scenario, all glaciers in the basin will disappear by the year 2030, despite predicted increases in precipitation;
Now, if the melt rate slowed already down in the 1950s and the 2003 model comes up with a data that is almost 30 years into the future, then this tells us that the rate again went down considerably. Otherwise, if the trend would have continued, then the glaciers would already be gone by that time.
Then we continue with the list of the NationalReview article. The 2009 article in National Geographic is one of the first links that I encountered in my search for information on the melting of the glaciers in Glacier National Park and I got a 404 error when I visited that site. I however know that this 2020 end date came from Daniel Fagre (the same one who revised the end date of the model run in de 2003 paper). It was widely reported in media other than National Geographic. For example at ThinkProgress (my emphasis) :
[I welcome your ideas for a new name for the park. The pictures below are Grinnell Glacier circa 1940, top, and 2004, bottom.] […] Temperature rise in our area was twice as great as what we put into the [1992] model,” Fagre said. “What we’ve been saying now is 2020.
That first sentence sounds familiar. Just as in the 1952 article, also the ThinkProgress article from 2009 started by making the claim that Glacier National Park may have to start looking for a new name. Which is equally wrong, the name of the park comes from the glaciers 12,000 to 130,000 that sculpted the landscape, so in principle, no name has to be changed, even if all current glaciers would vanish.
The reference to the New York Times article was also quickly found. It is titled “Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park” and this is the projection at the start of the article (my emphasis) :
A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25 survive. In 30 years, there may be none.
That is the weakest projection of them all. It is also not clear who made this claim exactly and when. The article seems to be an interview of Daniel Fagre, so it could well be him, but it also could be the interpretation of the journalist. If Fagre made this prediction, then that is very interesting. He then flip-flopped from 2030 (in 2003) to 2020 (in 2009) and ending in 2044 a few years later (in 2014).
There is however one projection that is missing from this list. I found it on the US Geographical Survey web page Retreat of Glaciers in Glacier National Park and it came online at the end of 2016/beginning of 2017 (although it is based on a 2010 paper). This is the prediction range (my emphasis) :
Worldwide glacier recession is well documented (1,2) and varied model projections suggest that certain studied GNP glaciers will disappear in the next few decades, between 2030 (3) to 2080 (4).
The 2030 end date that was based on the Hall & Fagre, 2010 paper is now used as the lower threshold. The upper threshold is now 2080 and this is based on the Brown et al, 2010 article in Global and Planetary Change. This is the projection in that paper (my emphasis) :
Under the most probable temperature increase based on downscaled OA-GCM output for the IPCC A1B scenario, we conservatively estimate the glacier persisting through at least 2080
Interesting, Brown investigated the Sperry glacier and that brings us full circle: the first projection from 1923 was also about this glacier. Remember, in that projection, the Sperry glacier would be “almost gone in 25 years time” (1948). In hindsight, it survived the entire 20th century and is now projected to have melted at the end of the 21th century. There is almost 160 years between the first prediction and the end date of the latest paper…
This is how it looks like when I add all projections in one graph:
There are no gaps in the 157 years period. When one projection passed the deadline, another one was issued or there was already at least one in place. That is 157 years of solid doom mongering…
Don’t get me wrong, the glaciers in Glacier National Park are melting, there is no doubt about that. They lost significant amounts of ice since the first projections. The question however is what is the cause? Also, how is the melt communicated to the public?
The glaciers of Glacier National Park were already melting for a very long time. The news paper clippings suggest from at least the beginning of the 20th century and from the Hall & Fagre paper we know that the melting started even earlier (half of the 19th century, at the end of the Little Ice Age).
These glaciers were already on death row before humans were putting substantial amounts of CO 2 in the atmosphere.
The botched predictions also show that the science behind the melting is highly uncertain, although that is not how it is communicated. For example, the ThinkProgress article used the revised projection of Daniel Fagre as evidence that it was worse than thought:
Yet another climate impact occurring faster than the models had projected.
Therefor suggesting that the melting was a sign of the climate impact of our emissions. In hindsight, it was in fact evidence that the projection was worse than the journalist thought.
That the climate impact is occurring faster than the models projected is a matter of opinion, yet it was presented to the public as a matter of fact.
The reason why they get away with this is because they tend to focus on the latest projection, losing sight of what came before. If any of the predictions of 1923, 1936, 1952 or 2009 were remotely true (meaning that it really was worse than thought), then there would not have been any glacier left in Glacier National Park. The fact that these glaciers survived the projections over the past 100 years actually means that until now it was better than thought, but that is not really a compelling message to bring.
Go to Part 1 | Part 2 | part 3 | Part 4 | part 5 | part6 | part 7 | part 8
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April 26, 2020 at 04:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Chinese virus on the shelf

Chinese virus on the shelf

As a Sunday rest from the doom and gloom about the Chinese virus , here is an ingenious photographic composition from one of Britain ’ s leading artists .
“ The English patient had caught it on the beach .
I should have stayed at home she said .
Now she was in quarantine in the dark house of splendid isolation .
Still … “ … hope springs eternal .
With a little bit of luck , common sense , and personal hygiene , the Corona book of horror stories must end soon .
Always remember , clean hands save @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , don ’ t go out !
” Phil Shaw , the artist , was born and raised in Huddersfield , in God ’ s own county .
He studied painting at Leeds Polytechnic and then printmaking at the Royal College of Art .
In 2000 he was awarded a Doctorate in Printmaking from Middlesex University , where he has taught since 1980 .
In 2004 , one of his works was chosen as Print of the Year by the Royal Society of Painter-Printmakers .
Shaw regularly exhibits at the Royal Academy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government Art Collection and the Vulcan Collection .
David Cameron commissioned Shaw to create the thought-provoking print presented to world leaders at the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland in 2013 .
The original is in the National Art Collection .
Meanwhile , here are today ’ s daily charts .
Since many countries have proven incapable of keeping a proper track of confirmed cases that have recovered , the Active-Cases chart is based on yesterday ’ s cumulative cases less cumulative cases for three weeks previously , on the assumption that people either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmed cases .
On that assumption , several countries still show positive mean daily compound rates of growth in active cases , averaged over seven days .
Among them are the United States , United Kingdom , France and the non-lockdown Sweden , whose active-case rate is now the highest among the countries we are following .
Fig .
1 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25 , 2020 .
Fig .
2 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 25 , 2020 .

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
As a Sunday rest from the doom and gloom about the Chinese virus, here is an ingenious photographic composition from one of Britain’s leading artists.
“The English patient had caught it on the beach. I should have stayed at home she said. Now she was in quarantine in the dark house of splendid isolation. Still …
“… hope springs eternal. With a little bit of luck, common sense, and personal hygiene, the Corona book of horror stories must end soon. Always remember, clean hands save lives: and, when in doubt, don’t go out!”
Phil Shaw, the artist, was born and raised in Huddersfield, in God’s own county. He studied painting at Leeds Polytechnic and then printmaking at the Royal College of Art. In 2000 he was awarded a Doctorate in Printmaking from Middlesex University, where he has taught since 1980.
In 2004, one of his works was chosen as Print of the Year by the Royal Society of Painter-Printmakers. Shaw regularly exhibits at the Royal Academy. Works by him are in the UK Government Art Collection and the Vulcan Collection. David Cameron commissioned Shaw to create the thought-provoking print presented to world leaders at the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland in 2013. The original is in the National Art Collection.
Meanwhile, here are today’s daily charts. Since many countries have proven incapable of keeping a proper track of confirmed cases that have recovered, the Active-Cases chart is based on yesterday’s cumulative cases less cumulative cases for three weeks previously, on the assumption that people either die or recover 21 days after becoming confirmed cases.
On that assumption, several countries still show positive mean daily compound rates of growth in active cases, averaged over seven days. Among them are the United States, United Kingdom, France and the non-lockdown Sweden, whose active-case rate is now the highest among the countries we are following.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 25, 2020.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 25, 2020.
High resolution images here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Freezes in Russia ‘could destroy the crop’

In the south of Russia , spring is in full color .
Gardens delight in white and pink .
But alarming freezes could worsen or destroy the crop .
At night and in the morning of April 24 , freezes persisted in the northern half of Volgograd and parts of the Astrakhan regions .
In parts of the Rostov Region , Krasnodar Territory , and the republics of the North Caucasus the temperature dropped to -3.0°C .
In the Stavropol Territory , it dropped to -1.0 …- 4.0°C .
The threat of freezing on Saturday still remains in the north @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April 25-27 in the republics of the North Caucasus the temperature will drop in places to -1 ..- 5°C .
http : //www.hmn.ru/index.php ?
index=1 & ts=200424122324 —— This whole week was cool and windy .
In Moscow , wet snow and snow pellets were noted .
At the end of the week , the freezes returned .
In Moscow , the temperature dropped to −2 , in the region – to −6°C .
The average daily temperature will remain 2–4 degrees below the climatic norm .
The temperature will be close to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day from +6 to +10°C .
Next week also will not become a springboard in the spring .
Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links The post Freezes in Russia ‘ could destroy the crop ’ appeared first on Ice Age Now .

In the south of Russia, spring is in full color. Gardens delight in white and pink. But alarming freezes could worsen or destroy the crop.
At night and in the morning of April 24, freezes persisted in the northern half of Volgograd and parts of the Astrakhan regions. In parts of the Rostov Region, Krasnodar Territory, and the republics of the North Caucasus the temperature dropped to -3.0°C. In the Stavropol Territory, it dropped to -1.0 …- 4.0°C.
The threat of freezing on Saturday still remains in the north of the Stavropol Territory, and from April 25-27 in the republics of the North Caucasus the temperature will drop in places to -1 ..- 5°C.
http://www.hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=200424122324
——
This whole week was cool and windy. In Moscow, wet snow and snow pellets were noted.
At the end of the week, the freezes returned. In Moscow, the temperature dropped to −2, in the region – to −6°C.
The average daily temperature will remain 2–4 degrees below the climatic norm. The temperature will be close to 0 at night, and during the day from +6 to +10°C.
Next week also will not become a springboard in the spring.
https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/weather/pogoda-v-moskve-aprel-provalil-plany-vesny/
http://www.hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=200424095518
Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links
The post Freezes in Russia ‘could destroy the crop’ appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 26, 2020 at 01:06PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Largest Bakken Producer Shuts In Almost All Production

The largest oil producer in North Dakota has halted most of its production in the U.S. state and notified some customers it would not supply crude after prices dived into negative territory this week , people familiar with the matter said .
Continental Resources Inc. , the company controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm , stopped all drilling and shut in most of its wells in the state ’ s Bakken shale field , three people familiar with production in the state said April 23 .
Global oil prices have plunged because of excess supplies and tumbling demand due to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into negative territory this week—meaning suppliers had to pay people to take oil—due to lack of storage space , prompting moves by operators to halt output .
Shut-ins have been particularly swift in North Dakota , which produced more than 1.4 million bbl/d of oil in 2019 , making it the second-largest U.S. producing state after Texas .
State officials say production has already dropped by about 300,000 bbl/d .
This month , rival operator in North Dakota Whiting Petroleum Corp. became the first major shale producer to file for bankruptcy .
Coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 150,000 bbl/d in the Bakken , according to company figures .
Continental Resources has also declared force majeure on current contracts to deliver crude oil at current prices .
Legal experts are dubious regarding their force majeure claim .
Continental , one of the most financially successful “ shale ” players , does not hedge production and was , therefore , highly exposed to the sudden price drop .
Continental Resources Draws Anger with Decision to Cancel Oil Sales Liz Hampton , Stephanie Kelly and Devika Krishna Kumar , Reuters Oil billionaire and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sharp response from a top industry group and questions from legal experts after his company , Continental Resources Inc. , said April 23 it could not deliver crude to customers , citing hardships based on low prices .
With fuel demand destroyed by the coronavirus pandemic as people worldwide stopped driving and taking flights , oil producers have been forced to store hundreds of millions of barrels of crude and fuel that would otherwise have been consumed .
With tanks now brimming , producers are cutting output .
Continental Resources , the largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drilling there , shut in wells and issued a force majeure notice , according to three sources familiar with the matter , an action typically reserved for situations out of a company ’ s control , such as natural disasters .
However , North Dakota oil regulators this week decided not to label current production as “ economic waste , ” which would have them the rationale to mandate production cuts .
The state ’ s Industrial Commission said it will hold a meeting soon to consider this possibility , but regulators have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think it ’ s going to be very difficult for them to assert economic force majeure , which is basically what they ’ re doing , ” said Ted Borrego , who has practiced oil and gas law for over 45 years and teaches at the University of Houston Law Center .
“ I think the chances of success are pretty close to zero.
” Continental also produces in Oklahoma , which this week issued an emergency order allowing producers to shut in wells without fear of losing leases .
A producer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , saying , “ The only way there will be a force majeure on the producer side is if states prorate production.
” Continental is exposed to weak prices because it did not hedge future production , betting economic growth would lift prices .
Many large shale producers use derivatives as a type of insurance policy to lock in a price for their future output .
Bakken crude this week was selling regionally at roughly $ 3/bbl , far below the U.S. benchmark , said Ron Ness , president of the North Dakota @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settled at $ 16.50 on April 23 .
Does Continental have a valid force majeure claim ?
The recent plunge in oil prices is entirely due to government malfeasance , starting with Red China : The ChiCom-19/Fire Marshal Gump Hostage Crisis .
So , maybe they do… Of course this raises the question , “ Could financial institutions declare force majeure and refuse to honor $ 50-60/bbl hedge contracts ?
” It ’ s a potential “ slippery slope.
” “ ChiCom-19 ” is my intentionally politically incorrect rebranding of all things pertaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fire Marshal Gump ” is my nickname for Dallas County ’ s chief executive , County Judge Clay Jenkins .
Generically , Fire Marshal Gumps are the tyrannical mayors , county officials and governors who have unconstitutionally placed their citizens under house arrest to protect us from the Kung Flu .
Fortunately , the US Attorney General may take action against the Fire Marshal Gumps of America : Barr calls stay-at-home orders ‘ disturbingly close to house arrest ’ The attorney general said the Justice Department may consider taking legal action against states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Attorney General William Barr said Tuesday that the need for strong restrictions to stop the spread of the coronavirus may be passing and that the Justice Department might consider taking legal action against states that go too far .
“ There are very , very burdensome impingements on liberty , ” he told radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt , “ and we adopted them for the limited purpose of slowing down the spread .
We didn ’ t adopt them as the comprehensive way of dealing with this disease .
We are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curve , and we have to come up with more targeted approaches.
” The Justice Department took just such an action just last week , filing a statement in support of a small Mississippi church that sued city officials who tried to shut down a drive-in church service while allowing a local drive-in restaurant to stay open .
ChiCom-19 and Fire Marshal Gump are reversing this faster than Sandy Cortez on amphetamines could… I couldn ’ t make this sort of schist up if I was trying .

Guest “end the hostage crisis now!” by David Middleton
Continental Resources Halts Shale Output, Seeks to Cancel Sales
Devika Krishna Kumar and Liz Hampton, Reuters Fri, 04/24/2020 – 04:20 AM The largest oil producer in North Dakota has halted most of its production in the U.S. state and notified some customers it would not supply crude after prices dived into negative territory this week, people familiar with the matter said. Continental Resources Inc., the company controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, stopped all drilling and shut in most of its wells in the state’s Bakken shale field, three people familiar with production in the state said April 23. Global oil prices have plunged because of excess supplies and tumbling demand due to the coronavirus crisis. U.S. crude prices plunged into negative territory this week—meaning suppliers had to pay people to take oil—due to lack of storage space, prompting moves by operators to halt output. Shut-ins have been particularly swift in North Dakota, which produced more than 1.4 million bbl/d of oil in 2019, making it the second-largest U.S. producing state after Texas. State officials say production has already dropped by about 300,000 bbl/d. This month, rival operator in North Dakota Whiting Petroleum Corp. became the first major shale producer to file for bankruptcy. Coming into this year, Continental produced nearly 150,000 bbl/d in the Bakken, according to company figures. […] Hart Energy
Continental Resources has also declared force majeure on current contracts to deliver crude oil at current prices. Legal experts are dubious regarding their force majeure claim. Continental, one of the most financially successful “shale” players, does not hedge production and was, therefore, highly exposed to the sudden price drop.
Continental Resources Draws Anger with Decision to Cancel Oil Sales
Liz Hampton, Stephanie Kelly and Devika Krishna Kumar, Reuters Fri, 04/24/2020 Oil billionaire and influential Trump adviser Harold Hamm drew a sharp response from a top industry group and questions from legal experts after his company, Continental Resources Inc., said April 23 it could not deliver crude to customers, citing hardships based on low prices. With fuel demand destroyed by the coronavirus pandemic as people worldwide stopped driving and taking flights, oil producers have been forced to store hundreds of millions of barrels of crude and fuel that would otherwise have been consumed. With tanks now brimming, producers are cutting output. Continental Resources, the largest producer in North Dakota, stopped all drilling there, shut in wells and issued a force majeure notice, according to three sources familiar with the matter, an action typically reserved for situations out of a company’s control, such as natural disasters. […] However, North Dakota oil regulators this week decided not to label current production as “economic waste,” which would have them the rationale to mandate production cuts. The state’s Industrial Commission said it will hold a meeting soon to consider this possibility, but regulators have been reluctant to mandate cuts. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for them to assert economic force majeure, which is basically what they’re doing,” said Ted Borrego, who has practiced oil and gas law for over 45 years and teaches at the University of Houston Law Center. “I think the chances of success are pretty close to zero.” Continental also produces in Oklahoma, which this week issued an emergency order allowing producers to shut in wells without fear of losing leases. […] A producer who saw the notice predicted legal action, saying, “The only way there will be a force majeure on the producer side is if states prorate production.” Continental is exposed to weak prices because it did not hedge future production, betting economic growth would lift prices. Many large shale producers use derivatives as a type of insurance policy to lock in a price for their future output. Bakken crude this week was selling regionally at roughly $3/bbl, far below the U.S. benchmark, said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council. Benchmark U.S. WTI crude settled at $16.50 on April 23. Hart Energy
Does Continental have a valid force majeure claim? The recent plunge in oil prices is entirely due to government malfeasance, starting with Red China: The ChiCom-19/Fire Marshal Gump Hostage Crisis. So, maybe they do… Of course this raises the question, “Could financial institutions declare force majeure and refuse to honor $50-60/bbl hedge contracts?” It’s a potential “slippery slope.”
“ChiCom-19” is my intentionally politically incorrect rebranding of all things pertaining to the Chinese Communist coronavirus. “Fire Marshal Gump” is my nickname for Dallas County’s chief executive, County Judge Clay Jenkins. Generically, Fire Marshal Gumps are the tyrannical mayors, county officials and governors who have unconstitutionally placed their citizens under house arrest to protect us from the Kung Flu.
Fortunately, the US Attorney General may take action against the Fire Marshal Gumps of America:
Barr calls stay-at-home orders ‘disturbingly close to house arrest’
The attorney general said the Justice Department may consider taking legal action against states that go too far. April 21, 2020, 5:06 PM CDT / Updated April 21, 2020, 5:12 PM CDT By Pete Williams WASHINGTON — Attorney General William Barr said Tuesday that the need for strong restrictions to stop the spread of the coronavirus may be passing and that the Justice Department might consider taking legal action against states that go too far. “There are very, very burdensome impingements on liberty,” he told radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt, “and we adopted them for the limited purpose of slowing down the spread. We didn’t adopt them as the comprehensive way of dealing with this disease. We are now seeing that these are bending the curve, and we have to come up with more targeted approaches.” […] The Justice Department took just such an action just last week, filing a statement in support of a small Mississippi church that sued city officials who tried to shut down a drive-in church service while allowing a local drive-in restaurant to stay open. He called stay-at-home orders “disturbingly close to house arrest.” NBC News
ChiCom-19 and Fire Marshal Gump are reversing this faster than Sandy Cortez on amphetamines could…
Speaking of Sandy Cortez…
I couldn’t make this sort of schist up if I was trying.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Doesn’t it make your blood boil?

Doesn’t it make your blood boil?

What kind nightmare of total retardation are we living through ?
______________ In Ontario , the number of those who @ @ @ @ @ of 217,618 was 13,995 .
So 6.4 % tested positive , which , extrapolating out @ @ @ @ @ Ontario , gives you 932,480 cases .
With 811 dead the death rate comes out @ @ @ @ @ you have a .087 % chance of dying from Covid-19 if you contract it .
@ @ @ @ @ your blood boil to think they ’ re locking us in our homes for this @ @ @ @ @ kind nightmare of total retardation are we living through ?
Covid-19 info from the Province @ @ @ @ @ //www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus The post Doesn ’ t it make your blood boil ?
appeared first on @ @ @ @

What kind nightmare of total retardation are we living through?
______________
Doesn’t it make your blood boil?
Julian Montinaro
In Ontario, the number of those who tested positive in a sample of 217,618 was 13,995. So 6.4% tested positive, which, extrapolating out for the entire pop of Ontario, gives you 932,480 cases. With 811 dead the death rate comes out to .087%.
So you have a .087% chance of dying from Covid-19 if you contract it.
Doesn’t it make your blood boil to think they’re locking us in our homes for this shit?
My god what kind nightmare of total retardation are we living through?
Covid-19 info from the Province of Ontario:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus
The post Doesn’t it make your blood boil? appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 26, 2020 at 11:48AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--A sensible COVID-19 exit strategy for the UK

A study by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College ( Ferguson et al .
2020 [ i ] ) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions .
The lockdown imposed in the UK appears , unsurprisingly , to have slowed the growth of COVID-19 infections , and may well soon lead to total active cases declining .
However , it comes at huge economic and social costs , and substantial COVID-19-unrelated health costs .
Worse , the lockdown is merely a holding strategy , which offers no long term solution to the COVID-19 problem .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 are not reduced relative to any less restrictive policy that likewise avoided the health system being overwhelmed .
Deaths are merely spread over a longer period , assuming that eventually restrictions are lifted and people ’ s lives return to normal .
Vaccinating the population against COVID-19 is unlikely to be achieved for 15-18 months at best .
A repurposed existing drug might be found to work on a shorter timescale , but a sensible strategy can not rely on that hope .
Developing and testing a successful new drug would likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no guarantee that a vaccine or drug effective against COVID-19 will be found in the foreseeable future .
Ferguson et al .
illustrates an adaptive cyclical on-off triggering of suppression strategies – involving lockdown approximately two-thirds of the time – extending to the end of 2021 .
But by that time their model implies that under 2 % of the population has been infected and acquired immunity , whereas 80+ % of the population needs to have been infected in order to achieve herd immunity in the absence of any restrictions .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years living under an on-off lockdown regime to achieve that level .
Clearly , the Ferguson et al .
illustrated on-off lockdown strategy is not appropriate .
A more intelligent approach is needed .
Fortunately , there is an obvious solution .
The key is to remove restrictions from those segments of the population that are at low risk of death from COVID-19 infection .
Age is a key factor here .
However , another key factor is whether a person suffers from various chronic health conditions , the most prevalent of which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , atrial fibrillation , obstructive pulmonary disease , and renal failure ( “ relevant health conditions ” ) .
Over half the population are under 70 years old and do not suffer from any chronic health conditions that are associated with a much elevated infection fatality rate ( IFR ) .
The IFR that I estimate for that segment of the population is only 0.03 % .
So is the estimated IFR for people under 30 years old who have one or more relevant health conditions .
I estimate that there are over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with no relevant health conditions , or have such conditions but are under 30 .
Allowing them to resume normal life , subject to some precautions , should lead to around 87 % of them being exposed to COVID-19 and , if susceptible to it , infected , over the next few months .
Because the IFR for these groups is very low , the resulting likely number of deaths would be relatively modest – slightly over 10,000 .
That would represent under 2 % of the expected total deaths in the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimates that Ferguson et al .
are using turn out to be too high , as looks increasingly likely , there could be substantially fewer deaths .
Assuming that these 10,000 deaths were spread over six months , on average slightly over 2,000 ICU beds would be occupied .
The extent of precautions taken could be varied over time to achieve an even ICU bed occupancy level .
If it turned out that a significant proportion of the population was already not susceptible to COVID-19 infection , the number of deaths could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about six months during which the non-vulnerable population was exposed to COVID-19 infection , vulnerable groups ( people over 30 year olds with any relevant health condition , and all over 70 year olds ) would need to remain fairly isolated from other people who remained susceptible to COVID-19 .
By the end of that period approximately 54 % of the population would no longer be susceptible to COVID-19 .
That is sufficient to provide herd immunity if the reproduction ratio is below 1.5 .
The fact that daily new cases of COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the end of March 2020 strongly suggests that the relatively limited measures taken there have reduced the reproduction ratio to well below 1.5 , despite that being totally at variance with the much smaller reduction that the Imperial College Response Team ’ s modelling in another study ( Flaxman et al 2020 ) [ ii ] implies .
Therefore , weaker measures than those in force in Sweden at that time should be adequate to prevent any resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the UK if 54 % herd immunity is achieved .
My @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of the UK population to immediately resume something close to normal life , with the other , more vulnerable , groups being able to do so , subject to some precautions ( which could be on an advisory rather than mandatory basis ) within six months .
In contrast , the current policy in the UK , which aims for all parts of the population to avoid exposure to COVID-19 , will – until and unless an effective vaccine is available – take multiple years to achieve a sufficient level of herd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective in preventing a resurgence of infections .
The IFR estimates that I use are based on those given in another paper by the same team at Imperial ( Verity et al.2020 [ iii ] ) , on which the Ferguson et al .
assumptions were based , and on other published findings .
The ICU bed occupation estimates that I use are based on the assumptions in Ferguson et al .
Further details of my results and the data and assumptions involved are available here .
[ i ] Neil M Ferguson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( NPIs ) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand , Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 9 , 16 March 2020 , https : //spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482 [ ii ] Flaxman , Seth , et al .
“ Report 13 : Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries.
” ( 2020 ) .
https : //spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/77731/9/2020-03-30-COVID19-Report-13.pdf [ iii ] Verity R , Okell LC , Dorigatti I , et al .
Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease .
medRxiv 13 March 2020 ; @ @ @ @

By Nic Lewis
The current approach
A study by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al. 2020[i]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The lockdown imposed in the UK appears, unsurprisingly, to have slowed the growth of COVID-19 infections, and may well soon lead to total active cases declining. However, it comes at huge economic and social costs, and substantial COVID-19-unrelated health costs.
Worse, the lockdown is merely a holding strategy, which offers no long term solution to the COVID-19 problem. The eventual total number of deaths for COVID-19 are not reduced relative to any less restrictive policy that likewise avoided the health system being overwhelmed. Deaths are merely spread over a longer period, assuming that eventually restrictions are lifted and people’s lives return to normal.
Vaccinating the population against COVID-19 is unlikely to be achieved for 15-18 months at best. A repurposed existing drug might be found to work on a shorter timescale, but a sensible strategy cannot rely on that hope. Developing and testing a successful new drug would likely take longer. Worse, there is no guarantee that a vaccine or drug effective against COVID-19 will be found in the foreseeable future.
Ferguson et al. illustrates an adaptive cyclical on-off triggering of suppression strategies – involving lockdown approximately two-thirds of the time – extending to the end of 2021. But by that time their model implies that under 2% of the population has been infected and acquired immunity, whereas 80+% of the population needs to have been infected in order to achieve herd immunity in the absence of any restrictions. It would take of the order of 70 years living under an on-off lockdown regime to achieve that level.
A sensible approach
Clearly, the Ferguson et al. illustrated on-off lockdown strategy is not appropriate. A more intelligent approach is needed. Fortunately, there is an obvious solution. The key is to remove restrictions from those segments of the population that are at low risk of death from COVID-19 infection. Age is a key factor here. However, another key factor is whether a person suffers from various chronic health conditions, the most prevalent of which are hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, obstructive pulmonary disease, and renal failure (“relevant health conditions”).
Over half the population are under 70 years old and do not suffer from any chronic health conditions that are associated with a much elevated infection fatality rate (IFR). The IFR that I estimate for that segment of the population is only 0.03%. So is the estimated IFR for people under 30 years old who have one or more relevant health conditions.
I estimate that there are over 41 million people who are under 70 with no relevant health conditions, or have such conditions but are under 30. Allowing them to resume normal life, subject to some precautions, should lead to around 87% of them being exposed to COVID-19 and, if susceptible to it, infected, over the next few months. Because the IFR for these groups is very low, the resulting likely number of deaths would be relatively modest – slightly over 10,000. That would represent under 2% of the expected total deaths in the UK during 2020. And if the IFR estimates that Ferguson et al. are using turn out to be too high, as looks increasingly likely, there could be substantially fewer deaths.
Assuming that these 10,000 deaths were spread over six months, on average slightly over 2,000 ICU beds would be occupied. The extent of precautions taken could be varied over time to achieve an even ICU bed occupancy level. If it turned out that a significant proportion of the population was already not susceptible to COVID-19 infection, the number of deaths could be substantially lower.
During the period of about six months during which the non-vulnerable population was exposed to COVID-19 infection, vulnerable groups (people over 30 year olds with any relevant health condition, and all over 70 year olds) would need to remain fairly isolated from other people who remained susceptible to COVID-19. By the end of that period approximately 54% of the population would no longer be susceptible to COVID-19. That is sufficient to provide herd immunity if the reproduction ratio is below 1.5.
The fact that daily new cases of COVID-19 have not been increasing in Sweden since the end of March 2020 strongly suggests that the relatively limited measures taken there have reduced the reproduction ratio to well below 1.5, despite that being totally at variance with the much smaller reduction that the Imperial College Response Team’s modelling in another study (Flaxman et al 2020)[ii] implies. Therefore, weaker measures than those in force in Sweden at that time should be adequate to prevent any resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the UK if 54% herd immunity is achieved.
My proposed exit strategy would enable over 60% of the UK population to immediately resume something close to normal life, with the other, more vulnerable, groups being able to do so, subject to some precautions (which could be on an advisory rather than mandatory basis) within six months.
In contrast, the current policy in the UK, which aims for all parts of the population to avoid exposure to COVID-19, will – until and unless an effective vaccine is available – take multiple years to achieve a sufficient level of herd immunity for relatively limited measures to be effective in preventing a resurgence of infections.
The IFR estimates that I use are based on those given in another paper by the same team at Imperial (Verity et al.2020 [iii]), on which the Ferguson et al. assumptions were based, and on other published findings. The ICU bed occupation estimates that I use are based on the assumptions in Ferguson et al. Further details of my results and the data and assumptions involved are available here.
Nicholas Lewis 26 April 2020
Originally posted here
References and Notes
[i] Neil M Ferguson et al., Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 9, 16 March 2020, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482
[ii] Flaxman, Seth, et al. “Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries.” (2020). https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/77731/9/2020-03-30-COVID19-Report-13.pdf
[iii] Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease. medRxiv 13 March 2020; https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.
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April 26, 2020 at 09:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-27--Alarmists Continue Their Desperate Lies

Alarmists Continue Their Desperate Lies

Brazil has been target of leftists , because their conservative president has refused to give in to COVID alarmism .
@ @ @ @ @ claims that Brazil is a “ coronavirus hotspot ” Brazil becomes a coronavirus hotspot : @ @ @ @ @ morgues and cemeteries | Daily Mail Online In the real world , Brazil is doing @ @ @ @ @ the UK , and starting to curve downwards just like everybody else .
The last @ @ @ @ @ understand is that draconian government actions accomplish nothing ( other than to destroy wealth and @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 deaths per million : are we bending the curve ?

Brazil has been target of leftists, because their conservative president has refused to give in to COVID alarmism. The UK Daily Mail now claims that Brazil is a “coronavirus hotspot”
Brazil becomes a coronavirus hotspot: New cases overwhelm hospitals, morgues and cemeteries | Daily Mail Online
In the real world, Brazil is doing about ten times better than the UK, and starting to curve downwards just like everybody else. The last thing leftists want people to understand is that draconian government actions accomplish nothing (other than to destroy wealth and freedom.)
Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million: are we bending the curve?


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-27--Hawaii – 40% Unemployment

Hawaii – 40% Unemployment

Hawaii is run by left-wing Democrats , and was one of the first states to shut down their economy .
@ @ @ @ @ unemployment claims .
Volunteers help with massive backlog of unemployment claims – Honolulu , Hawaii @ @ @ @ @ – KITV Channel 4 Hawaii only has about 650,000 people in their workforce , so @ @ @ @ @ % unemployment .
Hawaii has a COVID death rate of ten per million , which @ @ @ @ @ Wyoming – which never shut down .
Hawaii ’ s economy is almost completely dependent @ @ @ @ @ a dead industry thanks to worthless computer models created by the United Nations , and @ @ @ @ @ the US .
In a matter of six weeks liberal Democrat ’ s turned paradise @ @ @ @ @ The odds of Hawaiians dying from COVID are 1:10,000 .
Hawaiians are about fifty times @ @ @ @ @ flu or in a car accident .

Hawaii is run by left-wing Democrats, and was one of the first states to shut down their economy. They now have 250,000 new unemployment claims.
Volunteers help with massive backlog of unemployment claims – Honolulu, Hawaii news, sports & weather – KITV Channel 4
Hawaii only has about 650,000 people in their workforce, so they are probably above 40% unemployment.
What’s up with Hawaii’s incredible shrinking civilian labor force?
Hawaii has a COVID death rate of ten per million, which is about the same as Wyoming – which never shut down. Hawaii’s economy is almost completely dependent on tourism, which is a dead industry thanks to worthless computer models created by the United Nations, and mindless panic by politicians in the US.
In a matter of six weeks liberal Democrat’s turned paradise into the exact opposite. The odds of Hawaiians dying from COVID are 1:10,000. Hawaiians are about fifty times more likely to die from flu or in a car accident.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-27--COVID-19 Panel Gilead Ties

COVID-19 Panel Gilead Ties

At least 7 ( seven ) members of the Panel on COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines have not disclosed their financial ties to Gilead Sciences ( ticker GILD ) , the patents owner and manufacturer of remdesivir .
Remdesivir is being tested under auspices of WHO for treatment of COVID-19 .
Currently , COVID-19 is treated by hydroxychloroquine ( HCQ ) with or without azithromycin ( AZ ) .
Nine other members of the Panel have disclosed such ties to Gilead .
A number of other Panel members appear to have links to Gilead that require no disclosure .
Together , Gilead-linked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This might explain why the Panel recommended against HCQ+AZ combination , refused to recommend HCQ ( “ insufficient clinical data to recommend either for or against ” ) and raised fear , uncertainty , and doubt ( FUD ) about it .
The Panel gave the same grade ( but without FUD ) to remdesivir , although no clinical data for its use for COVID-19 existed at all .
The list of the Panel members who have not disclosed their financial ties to Gilead .
Notice that this is not accusation against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period to mere 11 months ( May 1 , 2019 to March 31 , 2020 ) and excluded the last three weeks .
The Guidelines were published on April 21 .

At least 7 (seven) members of the Panel on COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines have not disclosed their financial ties to Gilead Sciences (ticker GILD), the patents owner and manufacturer of remdesivir. Remdesivir is being tested under auspices of WHO for treatment of COVID-19. Currently, COVID-19 is treated by hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) with or without azithromycin (AZ).
Nine other members of the Panel have disclosed such ties to Gilead. A number of other Panel members appear to have links to Gilead that require no disclosure. Together, Gilead-linked individuals were a majority on the Panel.
This might explain why the Panel recommended against HCQ+AZ combination, refused to recommend HCQ (“insufficient clinical data to recommend either for or against”) and raised fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) about it. The Panel gave the same grade (but without FUD) to remdesivir, although no clinical data for its use for COVID-19 existed at all.
The list of the Panel members who have not disclosed their financial ties to Gilead. Notice that this is not accusation against theses individuals. Somebody set the reporting period to mere 11 months (May 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020) and excluded the last three weeks. The Guidelines were published on April 21.
Name Financial Disclosure Not Disclosed Company Relationship John T. Brooks None N/A Done HIV Conferences with Gilead Sciences (2018) https://ceitraining.org/courses/course_detail.cfm?mediaID=687 Ann C. Collier None N/A Past research support from Gilead (reported in 2013) https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/authors?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065306 Roy M. Gulick None N/A Currently delivers lectures, funded with grants from Gilead https://www.prn.org/index.php/management/article/update_from_ias_amsterdam_part_1 Jeffrey L. Lennox None N/A Gilead Advisory Board, 2019 https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/contentfiles/lvguidelines/glchunk/glchunk_274.pdf “Deleted” https://www.iasusa.org/blog/2018/11/19/primary-care-of-the-hiv-infected-adult-if-i-can-do-it-you-can-do-it-4/ Henry Masur None N/A Gilead funded his research and conference(s), 2018 https://web.archive.org/web/20181204075041/https://www.iasusa.org/2018/02/22/welcome-to-the-ias-usa-washington-dc-full-day-course-on-hiv-disease-management-2/ “Deleted” https://www.iasusa.org/blog/2018/11/15/recurring-and-emerging-questions-related-to-management-of-hiv-related-opportunistic-infections Nitin Seam None N/A Web Editorial Committee Chair with American Thoracic Society; Gilead is a Patron (2018) https://www.thoracic.org/about/resources/ats-annual-report-2018.pdf Phyllis Tien None N/A Research Grants by Gilead (2018) https://rsna2018.rsna.org/program/details/?publicid=SSC10-09 Please let me know if you find any error in this table or accompanying description. If you are a person in the left column, I will correct the error or publish your reply, or both. You can contact me by making a comment below (which will not be automatically published), or by email contact@defyccc.com. P.S. Do NOT delete the linked pages. First, destruction of evidence is a crime. Second, do you really think that your website and the Web Archive are the only places where their copies exist?
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April 27, 2020 at 06:20AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-27--Costly Climate Policies Must Be Abandoned To Save Economy

Unilateral decarbonisation policy stands in the way of economic recovery London , 27 April : European governments have no choice but to abandon costly climate plans that are threatening to burden nations with huge costs and millions of job losses if they want a strong economic recovery from Covid-19 lockdowns .
That ’ s according to a new report by Rupert Darwall , a former special adviser in the UK Treasury .
In a new paper released today , Darwall shows how the imposition of unilateral climate policies on business and industry will have a devastating effect on any economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costing up to 60 times hypothetical climate benefits , voters in Britain , America and Australia are putting economic recovery ahead of the environment , according to a recent IPSOS Mori poll .
The report reveals that the West ’ s pre-pandemic carbon dioxide emissions accounted for only one quarter of global emissions .
“ It is naïve as well as futile to think the tail of the West ’ s emissions is going to wag the global climate dog , ” Darwall says .
What is more likely to doom UN climate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s opening up because of China ’ s disastrous cover-ups about the Covid-19 virus .
“ It is not a coincidence that the UN climate talks got under way after the end of the Cold War , ” Darwall says .
The deterioration in relations between the US and China and the re-emergence of geopolitical rivalry after 30 years are likely to prove terminal for the global climate agenda , Darwall suggests .
Mr Darwall ’ s report is being published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation .
The Climate Noose : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Anti-capitalism can be downloaded here ( pdf ) .
The post Costly Climate Policies Must Be Abandoned To Save Economy appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Unilateral decarbonisation policy stands in the way of economic recovery
London, 27 April: European governments have no choice but to abandon costly climate plans that are threatening to burden nations with huge costs and millions of job losses if they want a strong economic recovery from Covid-19 lockdowns. That’s according to a new report by Rupert Darwall, a former special adviser in the UK Treasury.
In a new paper released today, Darwall shows how the imposition of unilateral climate policies on business and industry will have a devastating effect on any economic recovery from Covid-19. With Net Zero costing up to 60 times hypothetical climate benefits, voters in Britain, America and Australia are putting economic recovery ahead of the environment, according to a recent IPSOS Mori poll.
The report reveals that the West’s pre-pandemic carbon dioxide emissions accounted for only one quarter of global emissions.
“It is naïve as well as futile to think the tail of the West’s emissions is going to wag the global climate dog,” Darwall says.
What is more likely to doom UN climate talks is the deep rift that’s opening up because of China’s disastrous cover-ups about the Covid-19 virus.
“It is not a coincidence that the UN climate talks got under way after the end of the Cold War,” Darwall says. The deterioration in relations between the US and China and the re-emergence of geopolitical rivalry after 30 years are likely to prove terminal for the global climate agenda, Darwall suggests.
Mr Darwall’s report is being published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
The Climate Noose: Business, Net Zero and the IPCC’s Anti-capitalism can be downloaded here (pdf).
The post Costly Climate Policies Must Be Abandoned To Save Economy appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 27, 2020 at 06:15AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-27--New Zealand win: Community spread of coronavirus eliminated — lockdown eases (a bit) tonight

As so it begins .
The first country declares “ elimination ” success .
Today New Zealand announces the effective elimination of coronavirus .
Soon hopefully other countries can join ane rebuild the “ Virus Free Zone ” and the borders that surround them will expand as the infected zone shrinks .
Theirs was a very strict lockdown .
Beaches , playgrounds , schools , businesses and restaurants closed .
Not even takeaway sales .
New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19 , effectively eliminating the virus .
With new cases in single figures for several days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jacinda Ardern said the virus was “ currently ” eliminated .
But officials have warned against complacency , saying it does not mean a total end to new coronavirus cases .
The news comes hours before New Zealand is set to move out of its toughest level of social restrictions .
The shift down to level 3 restrictions means things are still pretty strict : Level 3 will see retailers , restaurants and schools allowed to reopen on a smaller scale .
Schools will reopen on Wednesday for children up to Year 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or whose parents need to return to work .

As so it begins. The first country declares “elimination” success. Today New Zealand announces the effective elimination of coronavirus. Soon hopefully other countries can join ane rebuild the “Virus Free Zone” and the borders that surround them will expand as the infected zone shrinks.
Theirs was a very strict lockdown. Beaches, playgrounds, schools, businesses and restaurants closed. Not even takeaway sales.
New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, effectively eliminating the virus.
BBC News
With new cases in single figures for several days – one on Sunday – Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the virus was “currently” eliminated.
But officials have warned against complacency, saying it does not mean a total end to new coronavirus cases.
The news comes hours before New Zealand is set to move out of its toughest level of social restrictions.
The shift down to level 3 restrictions means things are still pretty strict:
Level 3 will see retailers, restaurants and schools allowed to reopen on a smaller scale. Schools will reopen on Wednesday for children up to Year 10 who cannot study from home, or whose parents need to return to work.
[…]
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April 27, 2020 at 05:34AM


untitled

that no action will be taken against a newspaper that called a lady “ barking ” for being ‘ married @ @ @ @ @

IPSO, The Independent Press Standards Organisation,
that no action will be taken against a newspaper that called a lady “barking” for being ‘married’ to a chandelier.