iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-26--Study: Climate Change Increases the Risk of Global Pandemics

Any change is bad ?
according to a new study , warming in cold climates or cooling in warm climates increases the risk of animals getting sick , which in turn increases human exposure to dangerous new pathogens .
Global warming likely to increase disease risk for animals worldwide Date : November 23 , 2020 Source : University of Notre Dame Summary : Changes in climate can increase infectious disease risk in animals , researchers found — with the possibility that these diseases could spread to humans , they warn .
Changes in climate can increase infectious disease risk in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibility that these diseases could spread to humans , they warn .
The study , conducted by scientists at the University of Notre Dame , University of South Florida and University of Wisconsin-Madison , supports a phenomenon known as “ thermal mismatch hypothesis , ” which is the idea that the greatest risk for infectious disease in cold climate-adapted animals — such as polar bears — occurs as temperatures rise , while the risk for animals living in warmer climates occurs as temperatures fall .
The hypothesis proposes that smaller organisms like pathogens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than larger organisms , such as hosts or animals .
“ Understanding how the spread , severity and distribution of animal infectious diseases could change in the future has reached a new level of importance as a result of the global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 , a pathogen which appears to have originated from wildlife , ” said Jason Rohr , co-author of the paper published in Science and the Ludmilla F. , Stephen J. and Robert T. Galla College Professor and chair of the Department of Biological Sciences at Notre Dame .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ infectious disease events have a wildlife origin , this is yet another reason to implement mitigation strategies to reduce climate change.
” The abstract of the study ; Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates Climate change appears to be provoking changes in the patterns and intensity of infectious diseases .
For example , when conditions are cool , amphibians from warm climates experience greater burdens of infection by chytrid fungus than hosts from cool regions .
Cohen et al.undertook a global metanalysis of 383 studies to test whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ true over the gamut of host-pathogen relationships .
The authors combined date and location data with a selection of host and parasite traits and weather data .
In the resulting model , fungal disease risk increased sharply under cold abnormalities in warm climates , whereas bacterial disease prevalence increased sharply under warm abnormalities in cool climates .
Warming is projected to benefit helminths more than other parasites , and viral infections showed less obvious relationships with climate change .
The researchers ’ inference that distress experienced by animals during unusual weather conditions can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate change seems dubious .
Why would animals which withstand seasonal temperature variations in the 10s of degrees will suddenly all sicken because of a rate of climate change which can barely be detected ?
Even on the edge of the tropics where I live Winter is around 5-10C colder than Summer .
A proportion of animals are always at the edge of their range , they continuously move about and probe new ranges .
It seems a big leap to infer that the gradual global warming we are experiencing would significantly increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Global warming of 0.1C / decade is the climatic equivalent of moving South a few miles every year .
Even a mouse can out walk climate change .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Any change is bad? according to a new study, warming in cold climates or cooling in warm climates increases the risk of animals getting sick, which in turn increases human exposure to dangerous new pathogens.
Global warming likely to increase disease risk for animals worldwide Date: November 23, 2020
Source: University of Notre Dame
Summary: Changes in climate can increase infectious disease risk in animals, researchers found — with the possibility that these diseases could spread to humans, they warn. Changes in climate can increase infectious disease risk in animals, researchers found — with the possibility that these diseases could spread to humans, they warn. The study, conducted by scientists at the University of Notre Dame, University of South Florida and University of Wisconsin-Madison, supports a phenomenon known as “thermal mismatch hypothesis,” which is the idea that the greatest risk for infectious disease in cold climate-adapted animals — such as polar bears — occurs as temperatures rise, while the risk for animals living in warmer climates occurs as temperatures fall. The hypothesis proposes that smaller organisms like pathogens function across a wider range of temperatures than larger organisms, such as hosts or animals. “Understanding how the spread, severity and distribution of animal infectious diseases could change in the future has reached a new level of importance as a result of the global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a pathogen which appears to have originated from wildlife,” said Jason Rohr, co-author of the paper published in Science and the Ludmilla F., Stephen J. and Robert T. Galla College Professor and chair of the Department of Biological Sciences at Notre Dame. “Given that the majority of emerging infectious disease events have a wildlife origin, this is yet another reason to implement mitigation strategies to reduce climate change.” … Read more: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201123161032.htm
The abstract of the study;
Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates Jeremy M. Cohen1,2,*, Erin L. Sauer1,2, Olivia Santiago1,†, Samuel Spencer1,†, Jason R. Rohr Climate change alters disease risks Climate change appears to be provoking changes in the patterns and intensity of infectious diseases. For example, when conditions are cool, amphibians from warm climates experience greater burdens of infection by chytrid fungus than hosts from cool regions. Cohen et al.undertook a global metanalysis of 383 studies to test whether this “thermal mismatch” hypothesis holds true over the gamut of host-pathogen relationships. The authors combined date and location data with a selection of host and parasite traits and weather data. In the resulting model, fungal disease risk increased sharply under cold abnormalities in warm climates, whereas bacterial disease prevalence increased sharply under warm abnormalities in cool climates. Warming is projected to benefit helminths more than other parasites, and viral infections showed less obvious relationships with climate change. Read more: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6519/eabb1702
The researchers’ inference that distress experienced by animals during unusual weather conditions can tell you anything about the impact of climate change seems dubious.
Why would animals which withstand seasonal temperature variations in the 10s of degrees will suddenly all sicken because of a rate of climate change which can barely be detected?
Even on the edge of the tropics where I live Winter is around 5-10C colder than Summer.
A proportion of animals are always at the edge of their range, they continuously move about and probe new ranges. It seems a big leap to infer that the gradual global warming we are experiencing would significantly increase the number of animals experiencing range distress. Global warming of 0.1C / decade is the climatic equivalent of moving South a few miles every year. Even a mouse can out walk climate change.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-26--‘Economic emergency’ puts the brakes on Boris Johnson’s green agenda

Deluded climate miserablists discover the infinite money tree , which their doom-laden dogmas demand , doesn ’ t exist .
@ @ @ @ @ now coming in takes precedence over far-fetched assertions about human-caused weather events .
– – @ @ @ @ @ blaming Rishi Sunak , the UK Chancellor , of eroding Boris Johnson ’ s plans @ @ @ @ @ revolution ’ .
In his so-called Spending Review , Rishi Sunak , the UK Chancellor @ @ @ @ @ ’ s ‘ economy emergency has only just begun ’ and that it will negatively @ @ @ @ @ for decades to come .
Obviously , Sunak hardly mentioned the climate issue at all @ @ @ @ @ its relegation of green issues to the bottom of priorities confirms reports that the Treasury @ @ @ @ @ Johnson ’ s green hobby horse .
Ten days ago , the Observer reported about @ @ @ @ @ ’ s green agenda .

Deluded climate miserablists discover the infinite money tree, which their doom-laden dogmas demand, doesn’t exist. The tidal wave of debt now coming in takes precedence over far-fetched assertions about human-caused weather events.
– – –
Outraged climate activists are blaming Rishi Sunak, the UK Chancellor, of eroding Boris Johnson’s plans for a ‘green industrial revolution’.
In his so-called Spending Review, Rishi Sunak, the UK Chancellor, yesterday announced that Britain’s ‘economy emergency has only just begun’ and that it will negatively affect Britain’s finances for decades to come.
Obviously, Sunak hardly mentioned the climate issue at all.
The Spending Review and its relegation of green issues to the bottom of priorities confirms reports that the Treasury is at odds with Boris Johnson’s green hobby horse.
Ten days ago, the Observer reported about the growing row about Boris’s green agenda.
Continued here.
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November 26, 2020 at 07:24AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public

A few days ago I posted a video featuring a top pathologist who said COVID-19 is “ The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public.
” That video has been shut down by YouTube , but here it is from a different source : Here ’ s part of what I said in the original post : It is simply “ outrageous ” to shut down society for “ just another bad flu , ” says virology expert .
The risk of death for people under the age of 65 is only “ one in three hundred thousand.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Alberta for people under the age of 65 is only “ one in three hundred thousand , ” the doctor asserted .
It is simply “ outrageous ” to shut down society for what he called “ just another bad flu.
” You can see my original post here : https : //www.iceagenow.info/top-pathologist-covid-19-the-greatest-hoax-ever-perpetrated-on-an-unsuspecting-public/ Meanwhile , Snopes.com has tried to downplay this video , first by casting doubt that the voice really is that of Dr. Hodkinson .
“ It ’ s also possible ( although not probable ) that this audio featured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the doctor himself , ” says Snopes .
Possible , but not probable , that it is not him .
How ’ s that for a double negative ?
In other words , they think it probably is him .
Snopes also calls he doctor ’ ss credentials into question , while not denying that he was certified as a general pathologist by the Royal College in 1976 .
If Dr. Hodkinson has been a pathologist since 1976 , for more than 40 years , that might indicate that he knows what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t you think ?
Thanks to Dr Roger Higgs for this link The post The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public appeared first on Ice Age Now .

A few days ago I posted a video featuring a top pathologist who said COVID-19 is “The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public.” That video has been shut down by YouTube, but here it is from a different source:
Here’s part of what I said in the original post:
It is simply “outrageous” to shut down society for “just another bad flu,” says virology expert. The risk of death for people under the age of 65 is only “one in three hundred thousand.”
The risk of death in the province of Alberta for people under the age of 65 is only “one in three hundred thousand,” the doctor asserted. It is simply “outrageous” to shut down society for what he called “just another bad flu.”
You can see my original post here:
https://www.iceagenow.info/top-pathologist-covid-19-the-greatest-hoax-ever-perpetrated-on-an-unsuspecting-public/
Meanwhile, Snopes.com has tried to downplay this video, first by casting doubt that the voice really is that of Dr. Hodkinson.
“It’s also possible (although not probable) that this audio featured someone claiming to be Hodkinson, and not the doctor himself,” says Snopes.
Possible, but not probable, that it is not him. How’s that for a double negative? In other words, they think it probably is him.
Snopes also calls he doctor’ss credentials into question, while not denying that he was certified as a general pathologist by the Royal College in 1976. If Dr. Hodkinson has been a pathologist since 1976, for more than 40 years, that might indicate that he knows what he is talking about, don’t you think?
Here’s the Snopes page in question:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dr-roger-hodkinson-covid-hoax/
Thanks to Dr Roger Higgs for this link
The post The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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November 27, 2020 at 05:28AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Electric Car’s Carbon Footprint Criticised In New Report.

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By Paul Homewood
Whoops!
From the Telegraph:
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November 27, 2020 at 04:51AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Coal Outperforms Wind Power In UK Wind Week!

With an impeccable sense of timing , some bright spark decided to make this UK Wind Week .
Perhaps they @ @ @ @ @ NO Wind Week !
Sat under an anticyclone , Britain ’ s contribution from wind @ @ @ @ @ less than 1GW , around 2 % of the total electricity generated .
This situation @ @ @ @ @ few more days yet .
As ever , it is fossil fuels which have come @ @ @ @ @ gas currently supplying 60 % of the nation ’ s power , and even coal @ @ @ @ @ up to give 7 % .
Indeed , in the last day we have had @ @ @ @ @ from wind .
Thirteen years ago , the Labour government promised us that wind power @ @ @ @ @ by this year .
( I wonder where I have heard that lately ! )
@ @ @ @ @ run out of gas by now , because of disruption to supplies !
We are @ @ @ @ @ NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
https://twitter.com/nationalgriduk/status/1331296025793998858
With an impeccable sense of timing, some bright spark decided to make this UK Wind Week.
Perhaps they should have called it UK NO Wind Week!
http://grid.iamkate.com/
https://gridwatch.co.uk/Wind
Sat under an anticyclone, Britain’s contribution from wind power since yesterday has been less than 1GW, around 2% of the total electricity generated. This situation is expected to last a few more days yet.
As ever, it is fossil fuels which have come to the rescue, with gas currently supplying 60% of the nation’s power, and even coal, which has been fired up to give 7%.
Indeed, in the last day we have had more power from coal than from wind.
Thirteen years ago, the Labour government promised us that wind power could be powering every home by this year. (I wonder where I have heard that lately!)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/dec/10/politics
And we were supposed to run out of gas by now, because of disruption to supplies!
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2003/jul/01/sciencenews.greenpolitics
We are governed by idiots.
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November 27, 2020 at 04:33AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Artemis I Stacks Up

Artemis I Stacks Up

The first of 10 pieces of the twin Space Launch System ( SLS ) rocket boosters for NASA ’ s Artemis I mission was placed on the mobile launcher Saturday , Nov. 21 , 2020 , inside the Vehicle Assembly Building ( VAB ) at NASA ’ s Kennedy Space Center in Florida .
Engineers used one of five overhead cranes to lift the segment from the VAB ’ s High Bay 4 to the newly renovated High Bay 3 .
The component is the bottom section of the booster , known as the aft assembly , which house the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ steering during the rocket ’ s initial ascent .
Over several weeks , the other segments will be stacked one at a time and topped with the forward assembly .
Launching in 2021 , Artemis I will be an uncrewed test of the Orion spacecraft and SLS rocket as an integrated system ahead of crewed flights to the Moon .
Under the Artemis program , NASA aims to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon in 2024 and establish sustainable lunar exploration by the end of the decade .

From NASA
Nov. 24, 2020
The first of 10 pieces of the twin Space Launch System (SLS) rocket boosters for NASA’s Artemis I mission was placed on the mobile launcher Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020, inside the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Engineers used one of five overhead cranes to lift the segment from the VAB’s High Bay 4 to the newly renovated High Bay 3. The component is the bottom section of the booster, known as the aft assembly, which house the system that controls 70% of the steering during the rocket’s initial ascent. Over several weeks, the other segments will be stacked one at a time and topped with the forward assembly.
Launching in 2021, Artemis I will be an uncrewed test of the Orion spacecraft and SLS rocket as an integrated system ahead of crewed flights to the Moon. Under the Artemis program, NASA aims to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon in 2024 and establish sustainable lunar exploration by the end of the decade.
Image Credit: NASA/Cory HustonLast Updated: Nov. 24, 2020Editor: Yvette Smith
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Battered by virus and oil slump, biofuels fall out of favour

Another battering looms as electric cars are soon to be forced on many car buyers by legislation .
Maybe agriculture will get some of its lost land back for food production .
– – – Hit by the coronavirus pandemic and a sharp drop in oil prices , biofuel demand has declined for the first time in two decades and may struggle to recover , according to experts .
“ The collapse of oil prices has had a very negative impact on biofuels , ” rendering them uncompetitive , Olivier Lemesle , director of studies at Xerfi , told AFP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of biofuels for transport in 2020 is expected to decline 11.6 percent on 2019 levels , the first fall in 20 years , according to the International Energy Agency ’ s ( IEA ) annual report , published in early November .
Of all renewable energy sources , biofuel usage has decreased the most due to the coronavirus outbreak , the group said .
While the cost of the equivalent of a barrel of biodiesel has remained at around $ 70 throughout the pandemic , the price of crude oil plunged at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown measures cut demand .
The price of a Brent oil barrel has since recovered but has remained below $ 50 since March 6 , when it fell below the threshold for the first time since 2018 .
The plant-based substitutes for petrol and diesel still hold some advantages , particularly in terms of the environment , as they emit 50 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions than their fossil fuel equivalents .
“ Biofuels have their place , they are part of the environmental solution , ” said Jean-Phillipe Puig , chief executive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly a third of its turnover from biofuels .
However , in addition to the damaging oil prices , the industry is still reliant on politicians and whether they decide to raise the proportion of biofuel that can be mixed with conventional fuels and sold at the pump .
Another issue is that the first generation of biofuels made from sugar beet , wheat and corn are taking large quantities of staples out of the food systems of many countries .
The industry is also threatened by the development of the electric car @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engines .
Guy Maisonnier , an expert from the French Institute of Petroleum ( IFP Energies nouvelles ) research group , has said the industry should focus on aviation because it “ doesn ’ t have as many alternative solutions ” as road transport .

Another battering looms as electric cars are soon to be forced on many car buyers by legislation. Maybe agriculture will get some of its lost land back for food production.
– – –
Hit by the coronavirus pandemic and a sharp drop in oil prices, biofuel demand has declined for the first time in two decades and may struggle to recover, according to experts.
“The collapse of oil prices has had a very negative impact on biofuels,” rendering them uncompetitive, Olivier Lemesle, director of studies at Xerfi, told AFP (via TechXplore.)
The production of biofuels for transport in 2020 is expected to decline 11.6 percent on 2019 levels, the first fall in 20 years, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual report, published in early November.
Of all renewable energy sources, biofuel usage has decreased the most due to the coronavirus outbreak, the group said.
While the cost of the equivalent of a barrel of biodiesel has remained at around $70 throughout the pandemic, the price of crude oil plunged at the beginning of the year when drastic coronavirus lockdown measures cut demand.
The price of a Brent oil barrel has since recovered but has remained below $50 since March 6, when it fell below the threshold for the first time since 2018.
Environmental solution
The plant-based substitutes for petrol and diesel still hold some advantages, particularly in terms of the environment, as they emit 50 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions than their fossil fuel equivalents.
“Biofuels have their place, they are part of the environmental solution,” said Jean-Phillipe Puig, chief executive of the Avril group, which derives nearly a third of its turnover from biofuels.
However, in addition to the damaging oil prices, the industry is still reliant on politicians and whether they decide to raise the proportion of biofuel that can be mixed with conventional fuels and sold at the pump.
Another issue is that the first generation of biofuels made from sugar beet, wheat and corn are taking large quantities of staples out of the food systems of many countries.
The industry is also threatened by the development of the electric car, and in the longer term hydrogen engines.
High hopes
Guy Maisonnier, an expert from the French Institute of Petroleum (IFP Energies nouvelles) research group, has said the industry should focus on aviation because it “doesn’t have as many alternative solutions” as road transport.
Full article here.
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November 27, 2020 at 03:54AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Motorists face £700 billion bill for going electric

A new estimate of the cost of decarbonising private transport suggests that motorists might have to foot a bill for £700 billion if they want to stay on the roads .
Ongoing motoring costs could double .
According to author Andrew Montford , the great uncertainty is the future cost of battery electric vehicles : EVs are currently much more expensive than equivalent petrol cars – in the case of the VW Golf , nearly 40 % more expensive .
It ’ s anyone ’ s guess whether that cost differential will shrink as mass production kicks in , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scare minerals in EV batteries increases.
” If the differential is maintained , then by 2050 each household might have spent an average of an extra £19,000 , once infrastructure like chargers and upgraded wiring are taken into account .
And the ongoing costs of motoring will be much higher too .
Several aspects of EVs make them more costly than petrol cars – the need to renew batteries , the time wasted at charging points , the need to find alternative transport when their range is inadequate .
That ’ s only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soar in future .
We could easily see the cost of motoring double .
The working classes are going to be driven off the roads.
” The cost sheet “ Cost of Decarbonising Cars ” is available here ( pdf ) The post Motorists face £700 billion bill for going electric appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

A new estimate of the cost of decarbonising private transport suggests that motorists might have to foot a bill for £700 billion if they want to stay on the roads. Ongoing motoring costs could double.
According to author Andrew Montford, the great uncertainty is the future cost of battery electric vehicles:
EVs are currently much more expensive than equivalent petrol cars – in the case of the VW Golf, nearly 40% more expensive. It’s anyone’s guess whether that cost differential will shrink as mass production kicks in, or whether it will grow as competition for scare minerals in EV batteries increases.”
If the differential is maintained, then by 2050 each household might have spent an average of an extra £19,000, once infrastructure like chargers and upgraded wiring are taken into account. And the ongoing costs of motoring will be much higher too.
As Montford explains,
Several aspects of EVs make them more costly than petrol cars – the need to renew batteries, the time wasted at charging points, the need to find alternative transport when their range is inadequate. That’s only going to get worse as electricity prices soar in future. We could easily see the cost of motoring double. The working classes are going to be driven off the roads.”
The cost sheet “Cost of Decarbonising Cars” is available here (pdf)
The post Motorists face £700 billion bill for going electric appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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November 27, 2020 at 02:52AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Europe’s Green Deal in limbo as EU faces existential crisis

Hungary and Poland are threatening to tear up European Union treaties as they raise the stakes in a battle over democratic principles and the budget .
The EU has proposed a mechanism linking its €1.8 trillion budget and coronavirus recovery package to each member state ’ s respect for the rule of law .
Brussels has accused Poland and Hungary of undermining democracy .
The two countries vetoed the mechanism last week , stalling the implementation of the budget and rescue package that should come into force in January .
Mateusz Morawiecki , the Polish prime minister , met Viktor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Budapest yesterday and they released a statement reiterating that they would not approve the budget until the “ rule of law ” demands had been withdrawn .
This , they said , should involve an “ intergovernmental conference to negotiate modification of the EU treaties ” .
Unwinding treaties could open a can of worms for Brussels , which already has the pandemic , climate change and Brexit on its plate .
Budapest and Warsaw face what are known as Article 7 procedures for breaching the rule of law — for corrupting their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ independent institutions and restricting media freedom .
The post Europe ’ s Green Deal in limbo as EU faces existential crisis appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Hungary and Poland are threatening to tear up European Union treaties as they raise the stakes in a battle over democratic principles and the budget.
Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, and Mateusz Morawiecki, his Polish counterpart, have vetoed the EU budget. ZOLTAN FISCHER/HUNGARIAN PM PRESS OFFICE/REUTERS
The EU has proposed a mechanism linking its €1.8 trillion budget and coronavirus recovery package to each member state’s respect for the rule of law. Brussels has accused Poland and Hungary of undermining democracy.
The two countries vetoed the mechanism last week, stalling the implementation of the budget and rescue package that should come into force in January. Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish prime minister, met Viktor Orban, his Hungarian counterpart, in Budapest yesterday and they released a statement reiterating that they would not approve the budget until the “rule of law” demands had been withdrawn. This, they said, should involve an “intergovernmental conference to negotiate modification of the EU treaties”.
Unwinding treaties could open a can of worms for Brussels, which already has the pandemic, climate change and Brexit on its plate. Budapest and Warsaw face what are known as Article 7 procedures for breaching the rule of law — for corrupting their judiciaries, cracking down on charities and independent institutions and restricting media freedom.
The post Europe’s Green Deal in limbo as EU faces existential crisis appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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November 27, 2020 at 02:37AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Climategate: Another Anniversary (never forget ….)

[ Editor Note : It was during the Thanksgiving weekend 11 years ago that the Climategate ’ s unsettling oeuvre was first being disseminated and analyzed .
This post summarizes some remembrances from that period . ]
Climategate lives in infamy .
Then , and now , it is a case study of agendas driving science rather than science driving agendas .
Eleven years ago , climate alarmists and friends ( including Dessler above ) went into damage control .
But with such an evidentiary record of scientific malpractice , books solidified the record such as : • Hiding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Affair , by A. W. Montford ( 2012 ) • Climategate : The Crutape Letters , by Steven Mosher and Thomas Fuller ( 2010 ) • A Disgrace to the Profession , by Mark Steyn ( 2015 ) Perhaps the most revealing book was by a fair broker of mainstream climate science , Fred Pierce , The Climate Files ( 2010 ) .
Pierce fairly identified Michael Mann as the worst of the bad actors–and Steve McIntyre as the data liberator .
Regarding Michael Mann ( p. 90 ) : Here are some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the record .
“ Of course , if you believe the mainstream media , Climategate was little more than a fake news story concocted by a small cabal of wicked deniers in order to discredit the noble cause of climate science .
This is a lie and a particularly dangerous lie at that.
” “ Climategate was the scandal that exposed this truth to the world .
And that ’ s why the increasingly powerful alarmist Establishment has long fought so hard to play down its significance .
The alarmists — helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to do to the scandal what Harvey Keitel ’ s Winston ‘ The Wolf ’ Wolfe character did in Pulp Fiction : clean up the bodies , pretend nothing untoward ever happened.
” “ My own involvement in Climategate was actually quite modest .
At least , the heavy lifting was done by people much more diligent and scientifically minded than me , such as Steve McIntyre , Willis Eschenbach , Joanna Nova , Anthony Watts , Lucia Liljegren , Andrew Montford , Ross McKitrick , Fred Pearce , Roger Tallbloke , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Id , Jean S , Steven Mosher , and many others.
” “ What Climategate revealed , however , is that the climate change ‘ experts ’ we ’ re supposed to trust just aren ’ t trustworthy .
They lie , they cheat , they ’ re motivated more by grant-troughing and dodgy political activism than they are by — lol — the disinterested quest for knowledge .
That was the real shocker at the time of Climategate : that the people on whose ‘ expert ’ wisdom trillions of dollars worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being spent on sundry green boondoggles are in fact a lousy bunch of fraudulent second-raters unfit to run a cookie bake sale , let alone a scam involving upwards of one percent of the global economy.
” “ In November 2009 I was in Brussels at a climate skeptic conference being put on by Hans Lobohm .
I remember the first message I got… .
“ You need to look at this !
“ .
Then reading the emails , wide-eyed , and realizing I [ decided ] … under no circumstances would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it until I was back on U.S. soil .
Then , after clearing customs at Dulles two days later , I sat down in the airport , and wrote the story , breaking the news on the 19th.
” “ Luckily , James Delingpole picked up the story for his column , and its entry into the British newspaper The Telegraph started the chain reaction that made the story grow , becoming the ‘ worst scientific scandal of our generation ‘ .
” “ But while proponents of ‘ the cause ’ ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a recent op-ed for Newsweek ) pat themselves on the back comforting each other with ‘ there ’ s nothing to see here ’ , there are reasons to rejoice about Climategate ten years later.
” “ Climategate brought chaos to Copenhagen aka COP15 – critically wounding the prospects of cap-and-trade legislation in the process .
It helped the world dodge the climate mania bullet for 5 years , until the Paris accord in 2015.
” Donald Trump became aware of the Climategate story , years before he became President , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has mentioned it ) that it affected his opinion… .
And as we know , as President , he fulfilled his campaign promises and pulled the USA out of the Paris Climate Accord , and gutted the draconian EPA .
“ For [ the above ] , I am proud to have had a part , along with the Heartland Institute , whose advice and support gave Trump even more ammunition to pull off the withdrawal from the Paris accord.
” “ There was no exoneration [ of Climategate ] by any objective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McKitrick lays all this out in his article Understanding the Climategate Inquiries.
” “ The scientists involved in the email exchanges manipulated evidence in IPCC and WMO reports with the effect of misleading readers , including policymakers .
The divergence problem was concealed by deleting data to ‘ hide the decline.
’ The panels that examined the issue in detail , namely Muir Russell ’ s panel , concurred that the graph was ‘ misleading.
’ The ridiculous attempt by the Penn State Inquiry to defend an instance of deleting data and splicing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem only discredits their claims to have investigated the issue.
” “ The scientists privately expressed greater doubts or uncertainties about the science in their own professional writings and in their interactions with one another than they allowed to be stated in reports of the IPCC or WMO that were intended for policymakers .
Rather than criticise the scientists for this , the inquiries ( particularly the House of Commons and Oxburgh inquiries ) took the astonishing view that as long as scientists expressed doubts and uncertainties in their academic papers and among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to conceal those uncertainties in documents prepared for policy makers.
” “ … academics reading the emails could see quite clearly the tribalism at work , and in comparison to other fields , climatology comes off looking juvenile , corrupt and in the grip of a handful of self-appointed gatekeepers and bullies.
” “ Given the huge stakes and the serious structural issues surrounding the assessment of climate science and policy that had emerged from Climategate , these concerns of the climate scientists seem small-minded and naïve , not to mention counter-productive – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made the situation even worse.
” “ At the time of Climategate , public advocacy by climate scientists of climate policy was generally frowned upon , and only a few senior , well-established scientists dared to do this ( e.g .
Jim Hansen ) .
At this point , climate scientist/activists are very large in number , and such activism seems to be a ticket to professional success.
” “ … Climategate lives on in numerous lawsuits that Michael Mann has filed related to criticisms of his behavior related to the hockeystick .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ since they were filed about 8 years ago ( although Mann did lose his lawsuit against Tim Ball ) .
With these lawsuits , there is no denying that the impacts of Climategate are still playing out.
” Some of the involved scientists , such as Michael Mann , as well as a five-part series of blogs at DESMOG have felt it necessary to relive the controversy .
None dare do the most simple thing : provide the quotations .
( I provided a dirty dozen here that speak for themselves . )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ history .
( It is still not known who hacked the emails ; just that they were hacked . )
And Michael Mann was at the center of it , inspiring one professional climatologist to humorously opine that Mann “ belongs in the state pen , not Penn State .
”

[Editor Note: It was during the Thanksgiving weekend 11 years ago that the Climategate’s unsettling oeuvre was first being disseminated and analyzed. This post summarizes some remembrances from that period.]
“The conflict between the two ideas about how science should be conducted–a closed system dominated by gatekeepers, or a more chaotic but less hierarchical open system–is the dominant story of the [Climategate] emails over more than a decade.” – Fred Pierce, The Climate Files (2010), p. 13.
“There is no doubt that these emails are embarrassing and a public-relations disaster for science.” – Andrew Dessler, “Climate E-Mails Cloud the Debate,” December 10, 2009.
Climategate lives in infamy. Then, and now, it is a case study of agendas driving science rather than science driving agendas.
Eleven years ago, climate alarmists and friends (including Dessler above) went into damage control. But with such an evidentiary record of scientific malpractice, books solidified the record such as:
The Hockey Stick Illusion, by A. W. Montford (2010)
Hiding the Decline: A History of the Climategate Affair, by A. W. Montford (2012)
Climategate: The Crutape Letters, by Steven Mosher and Thomas Fuller (2010)
Climategate, by Brian Sussmanh (2010)
A Disgrace to the Profession, by Mark Steyn (2015)
Perhaps the most revealing book was by a fair broker of mainstream climate science, Fred Pierce, The Climate Files (2010). Pierce fairly identified Michael Mann as the worst of the bad actors–and Steve McIntyre as the data liberator. Regarding Michael Mann (p. 90):
Mann has always been a tasty target. His voluble style has made enemies and exasperated his friends. “The goddam guy is a slick talker and super-confident. He won’t listen to anyone else,” one of climate science’s most senior figures … told me. “I don’t trust people like that. A lot of data sets he uses are shitty, you know. They are just not up to what he is trying to do….”
And Steve McIntyre (pp. 13–14):
Climategate would not have happened without … Steve McIntyre. Whether you see him as a hero or a villain, his data wars with Mann, Jones, Briffa, and Santer helped create the siege mentality among the scientists, and set them on a path of opposition to freedom of information. By drawing in scores of data liberationists from both inside and outside the science community, he certainly inspired whoever stole the and released the emails.
Here are some remembrances of the good guys and gals for the record.
James Delingpole
“Of course, if you believe the mainstream media, Climategate was little more than a fake news story concocted by a small cabal of wicked deniers in order to discredit the noble cause of climate science. This is a lie and a particularly dangerous lie at that.”
“Climategate was the scandal that exposed this truth to the world. And that’s why the increasingly powerful alarmist Establishment has long fought so hard to play down its significance. The alarmists — helped by a lazily complicit media — are trying to do to the scandal what Harvey Keitel’s Winston ‘The Wolf’ Wolfe character did in Pulp Fiction: clean up the bodies, pretend nothing untoward ever happened.”
“My own involvement in Climategate was actually quite modest. At least, the heavy lifting was done by people much more diligent and scientifically minded than me, such as Steve McIntyre, Willis Eschenbach, Joanna Nova, Anthony Watts, Lucia Liljegren, Andrew Montford, Ross McKitrick, Fred Pearce, Roger Tallbloke, Christopher Booker, David Rose, Jeff Id, Jean S, Steven Mosher, and many others.”
“What Climategate revealed, however, is that the climate change ‘experts’ we’re supposed to trust just aren’t trustworthy. They lie, they cheat, they’re motivated more by grant-troughing and dodgy political activism than they are by — lol — the disinterested quest for knowledge. That was the real shocker at the time of Climategate: that the people on whose ‘expert’ wisdom trillions of dollars worth of your money and my money are being spent on sundry green boondoggles are in fact a lousy bunch of fraudulent second-raters unfit to run a cookie bake sale, let alone a scam involving upwards of one percent of the global economy.”
Anthony Watts
“In November 2009 I was in Brussels at a climate skeptic conference being put on by Hans Lobohm. I remember the first message I got…. “You need to look at this!“. Then reading the emails, wide-eyed, and realizing I [decided] … under no circumstances would we write anything about it or release it until I was back on U.S. soil. Then, after clearing customs at Dulles two days later, I sat down in the airport, and wrote the story, breaking the news on the 19th.”
“Luckily, James Delingpole picked up the story for his column, and its entry into the British newspaper The Telegraph started the chain reaction that made the story grow, becoming the ‘worst scientific scandal of our generation‘.”
“But while proponents of ‘the cause’ (most notably the execrable Michael E. Mann in a recent op-ed for Newsweek) pat themselves on the back comforting each other with ‘there’s nothing to see here’, there are reasons to rejoice about Climategate ten years later.”
“Climategate brought chaos to Copenhagen aka COP15 – critically wounding the prospects of cap-and-trade legislation in the process. It helped the world dodge the climate mania bullet for 5 years, until the Paris accord in 2015.”
Donald Trump became aware of the Climategate story, years before he became President, and I have to think (since he has mentioned it) that it affected his opinion…. And as we know, as President, he fulfilled his campaign promises and pulled the USA out of the Paris Climate Accord, and gutted the draconian EPA.
“For [the above], I am proud to have had a part, along with the Heartland Institute, whose advice and support gave Trump even more ammunition to pull off the withdrawal from the Paris accord.”
Judith Curry
“There was no exoneration [of Climategate] by any objective analysis of the various inquiries. Ross McKitrick lays all this out in his article Understanding the Climategate Inquiries.”
“The scientists involved in the email exchanges manipulated evidence in IPCC and WMO reports with the effect of misleading readers, including policymakers. The divergence problem was concealed by deleting data to ‘hide the decline.’ The panels that examined the issue in detail, namely Muir Russell’s panel, concurred that the graph was ‘misleading.’ The ridiculous attempt by the Penn State Inquiry to defend an instance of deleting data and splicing in other data to conceal a divergence problem only discredits their claims to have investigated the issue.”
“The scientists privately expressed greater doubts or uncertainties about the science in their own professional writings and in their interactions with one another than they allowed to be stated in reports of the IPCC or WMO that were intended for policymakers. Rather than criticise the scientists for this, the inquiries (particularly the House of Commons and Oxburgh inquiries) took the astonishing view that as long as scientists expressed doubts and uncertainties in their academic papers and among themselves, it was acceptable for them to conceal those uncertainties in documents prepared for policy makers.”
“… academics reading the emails could see quite clearly the tribalism at work, and in comparison to other fields, climatology comes off looking juvenile, corrupt and in the grip of a handful of self-appointed gatekeepers and bullies.”
“Given the huge stakes and the serious structural issues surrounding the assessment of climate science and policy that had emerged from Climategate, these concerns of the climate scientists seem small-minded and naïve, not to mention counter-productive – ‘circling the wagons’ even tighter made the situation even worse.”
“At the time of Climategate, public advocacy by climate scientists of climate policy was generally frowned upon, and only a few senior, well-established scientists dared to do this (e.g. Jim Hansen). At this point, climate scientist/activists are very large in number, and such activism seems to be a ticket to professional success.”
“… Climategate lives on in numerous lawsuits that Michael Mann has filed related to criticisms of his behavior related to the hockeystick. Most of these lawsuits continue to languish since they were filed about 8 years ago (although Mann did lose his lawsuit against Tim Ball). With these lawsuits, there is no denying that the impacts of Climategate are still playing out.”
Update: The New “Denialists”
Some of the involved scientists, such as Michael Mann, as well as a five-part series of blogs at DESMOG have felt it necessary to relive the controversy. None dare do the most simple thing: provide the quotations. (I provided a dirty dozen here that speak for themselves.)
Mann states:
While the fossil fuel industry had for decades sought to forestall regulation of carbon emissions, Climategate illustrated the depths of dishonesty to which denialists were willing to sink in their efforts to sabotage action on climate. It was a tacit admission on their part that they no longer had a legitimate case to make. And so citing “Climategate” as a reason for inaction has become a simple “tell” in the climate discourse. Those who do it are acting in bad faith. They are not honest actors expressing true belief. They are dissemblers intentionally misrepresenting the science and the scientists to score political points on behalf of the fossil fuel interests whose bidding they are doing.
Such an interpretation is wishful versus actual history. (It is still not known who hacked the emails; just that they were hacked.) And Michael Mann was at the center of it, inspiring one professional climatologist to humorously opine that Mann “belongs in the state pen, not Penn State.”


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--An approximation to determine the source of the WOW! Signal

In this paper it is analysed which of the thousands of stars in the WOW !
Signal region could have the highest chance of being the real source of the signal , providing that it came from a star system similar to ours .
A total of 66 G and K-type stars are sampled , but only one of them is identified as a potential Sun-like star considering the available information in the Gaia Archive .
This candidate source , which is named 2MASS 19281982-2640123 , therefore becomes an ideal target to conduct observations in the search for potentially habitable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( with estimated temperatures between 5,730 and 5,830 K ) are also found in the region , but information about their luminosity and radius is unknown .
Keywords : WOW !
Signal , SETI , Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence , interstellar radio message .
As of October 2020 , the WOW !
Signal remains the strongest candidate SETI signal .
It has been suggested that the signal was produced by hydrogen clouds from Comets 266/P Christensen and P/2008 Y2 ( Paris and Davies , 2015 ) .
However , this hypothesis has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the source of the signal remains unknown .
Despite the WOW !
Signal never repeated , the key aspect was its duration .
The signal lasted for 72 seconds , but since this was the maximum amount of time that the Big Ear radio telescope was able to observe , it is likely that the signal would have lasted longer .
The main problem , however , is that the signal never repeated .
Follow-up observations of the area conducted by many observatories during several years never detected another signal ( Gray and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fact that the signal never repeated , does not necessarily discard that it was produced by extraterrestrial intelligence .
In fact , if we analyse the history of ( the few ) radio signals that humanity have sent to several targets in the hope of contacting a civilization , none of those transmissions had a long duration or were repeatedly sent for a long time .
An extraterrestrial civilization could have opted to behave in a similar manner .
Few attempts have been made to determine the exact location of the WOW @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Despite it was detected in just one of the two feed horns of the radio telescope , the data was processed in a way that does not allow us to determine which of the feed horns actually received the signal .
The other reason that makes difficult to determine the exact source is the high uncertainly in declination : 20 arcminutes .
The following image shows an approximation of the two sections of the sky that could contain the source of the signal , each of them with thousands of stars .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ : 19h25m31s ± 10s ( for the positive horn ) , 19h28m22s ± 10s ( for the negative horn ) , and DEC : −26°57′ ± 20′ , both in J2000 equinox ( Ehman , 1997 ) .
In this article an attempt is made to create a list of the possible sources of the signal assuming that , if it was produced by an extraterrestrial civilization , their exoplanet is similar to Earth .

Alberto Caballero
In this paper it is analysed which of the thousands of stars in the WOW! Signal region could have the highest chance of being the real source of the signal, providing that it came from a star system similar to ours. A total of 66 G and K-type stars are sampled, but only one of them is identified as a potential Sun-like star considering the available information in the Gaia Archive.
This candidate source, which is named 2MASS 19281982-2640123, therefore becomes an ideal target to conduct observations in the search for potentially habitable exoplanets. Another 14 potential Sun-like stars (with estimated temperatures between 5,730 and 5,830 K) are also found in the region, but information about their luminosity and radius is unknown.
Keywords: WOW! Signal, SETI, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, interstellar radio message.
Introduction
As of October 2020, the WOW! Signal remains the strongest candidate SETI signal. It has been suggested that the signal was produced by hydrogen clouds from Comets 266/P Christensen and P/2008 Y2 (Paris and Davies, 2015). However, this hypothesis has been dismissed by the scientific community, and the source of the signal remains unknown.
Despite the WOW! Signal never repeated, the key aspect was its duration. The signal lasted for 72 seconds, but since this was the maximum amount of time that the Big Ear radio telescope was able to observe, it is likely that the signal would have lasted longer.
The main problem, however, is that the signal never repeated. Follow-up observations of the area conducted by many observatories during several years never detected another signal (Gray and Ellingsen, 2002). Nonetheless, the fact that the signal never repeated, does not necessarily discard that it was produced by extraterrestrial intelligence.
In fact, if we analyse the history of (the few) radio signals that humanity have sent to several targets in the hope of contacting a civilization, none of those transmissions had a long duration or were repeatedly sent for a long time. An extraterrestrial civilization could have opted to behave in a similar manner.
Few attempts have been made to determine the exact location of the WOW! Signal due to the difficulty involved. Despite it was detected in just one of the two feed horns of the radio telescope, the data was processed in a way that does not allow us to determine which of the feed horns actually received the signal.
The other reason that makes difficult to determine the exact source is the high uncertainly in declination: 20 arcminutes. The following image shows an approximation of the two sections of the sky that could contain the source of the signal, each of them with thousands of stars.
Figure 1: In red, the two regions where the WOW! Signal could have originated
Source: Pan-STARRS/DR1
The coordinates of the signal are RA: 19h25m31s ± 10s (for the positive horn), 19h28m22s ± 10s (for the negative horn), and DEC: −26°57′ ± 20′, both in J2000 equinox (Ehman, 1997). In this article an attempt is made to create a list of the possible sources of the signal assuming that, if it was produced by an extraterrestrial civilization, their exoplanet is similar to Earth.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-28--Record snowfall in Minnesota

Record snowfall in Minnesota

Admittedly it beat the previous record by only a small amount , but still , a record is a record @ @ @ @ @ at the Rochester International Airport of 2.9″ is the new daily record snowfall record for @ @ @ @ @ previous record of 2.2″ set back in 1996 .
Areas in Filmore and Winona Counties @ @ @ @ @ of snow .
Even the southeastern portion of Olmsted County report up to 3″ of @ @ @ @ @ Olson for this link The post Record snowfall in Minnesota appeared first on Ice Age @ @

Admittedly it beat the previous record by only a small amount, but still, a record is a record.
The official snowfall total at the Rochester International Airport of 2.9″ is the new daily record snowfall record for Rochester. This beat the previous record of 2.2″ set back in 1996.
Areas in Filmore and Winona Counties sent in reports of 4-5″ of snow. Even the southeastern portion of Olmsted County report up to 3″ of snow.
Thanks to Clay Olson for this link
The post Record snowfall in Minnesota appeared first on Ice Age Now.
via Ice Age Now
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November 27, 2020 at 05:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Books on the ‘Climate Emergency’ – Suggested Christmas Reading for Sceptics

Sceptics hoping to counter the mounting hysteria and calls for dramatic action to combat the ‘ Climate Emergency , ’ may want to ensure they are properly informed on the issues , in contrast to those that boldly claim that ‘ climate change is rubbish ’ or that highly qualified scientists are idiots who don ’ t know what they are doing .
This is a shortlist of recent books to read that will help you to better understand your climate anxious friends and relatives , others are potential book presents to try to calm their more extreme concerns .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the eyes of someone involved in writing articles on climate change for some 15 years , mostly from a historical perspective .
In recommending this selection it should be noted that I have provided details of physical books , not e-material ( if available ) .
Books allow one to dip in and out according to time availability , are useful reference material for a book shelf , and if intended as a gift has more presence than e- material .
My apologies in advance , but I use the word ‘ hysteria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand why their young relatives and friends have such concerns about the climate that many believe will severely affect their adult lives , will find this first selection a good place to start , to help understand where their concerns are coming from .
“ No one is Too Small to make a difference ” Greta Thunberg .
Softback .
Penguin Books ; ISBN 978-0-141-99174-0 Greta is the world ’ s most famous school truant to climate sceptics , but she provides the teenage rebelliousness-a climate strike every Friday- and the black and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ She is highly influential , not only to her peers , but also to schoolteachers and to world leaders .
British sceptics were highly embarrassed when senior British govt .
figures fawned over her during a visit and she is said to be responsible for influencing the European Union ’ s zero emissions plan .
Through her histrionics at the UN she also reached a much wider audience .
This book is as petulant and pouty as she comes over , and is an astonishingly slim book , which provides trite certainties such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ’ apocalyptic interpretations of climate events , and confident assertions such as ‘ we need to focus every inch of our being on climate change ‘ and misrepresentation ; ‘ According to the IPCC report we are about eleven years away ( from 2019 ) from being in a position where we set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control.
” Easy to see why teenagers are scared about their future with such hysteria .
Her failure to recognise there are two sides to every balance sheet is a fundamental flaw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for its ‘ mind blowing historical carbon debt ’ she fails to acknowledge that as a result of that nation launching the industrial revolution , ordinary people live longer , healthier , happier , richer and more fulfilled lives , with more freedoms human rights and respect for the rule of law than in the entire history of humanity .
Sit down with a very hot cup of coffee and the coffee will probably still be warm by the time you have finished reading this trivial but iconic booklet , that will provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of the young , to whom slogans seem to be replacing facts and personal analysis .
Its greatest merit is its brevity , which means it is more accessible than some of the very wordy and tedious tomes published about climate .
For those wanting to understand why adult friends and relatives are experiencing severe cases of climate hysteria , this is the book .
It is depressingly and relentlessly downbeat , apocalyptic , strident and accusatory .
Those who weren ’ t alarmed before about the climate would be after reading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the things written at face value .
It is well referenced and sceptics will be familiar with many of the scenario and the players involved .
It will provide an invaluable insight into the minds of those who believe we should mobilise against climate change in the same way as with World War 2 , and why extreme activists believe the draconian govt actions taken against Covid 19 should be equally applied to the climate change that they believe to be an even worse disaster , unfolding now .
The book is enthusiastically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the UK Sunday Times and a flavour of the hysteria surrounding it can be seen in two of the reviews ; ‘ If we don ’ t want our grandchildren to curse us we had better read this book ’ Timothy Snyder .
‘ This book may come to be regarded as the last truly great climate assessment ever made .
Is there even time left to pen another ?
Clear , engaging and often dazzling.
” The UK Daily Telegraph ( normally a rather sober paper ) Full of nuggets of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , intellectual , philosophical and often densely written , it is not an easy book to read , as the authors style and tendency to mix subjects , means it does not always flow smoothly .
So if some of your friends and relatives are already beyond extreme anxiety , but appear to be well informed , they may already be a reader of this well regarded author .
Consequently , reading it yourself may help to better understand their fears , and judge how unfounded you believe them to be .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overwhelming us and will only get much worse is the overall message .
The Afterword to the paperback edition states ; ‘ The final pages of the manuscript of this book was written in early September of 2018 in a spirit of halfway optimism , which at the time I halfway believed.
” If this is halfway optimism Iwould hate to hear the author ’ s definition of pessimism .
This is a thoroughly depressing book , full of dire interpretations of events and with little regards to history .
If your friends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or those of a similar nature loudly proclaiming a climate apocalypse , it should be no surprise if they demand that you repent your views , as urgent action is clearly needed to fix things , in their opinion .
Your more rational attitude to the climate will no doubt enrage and baffles them and may have fractured relationships .
This book is recommended only because it gives such a good insight into the philosophical mind-set of this type of author and those who read their words approvingly .
After all that gloom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 2 books that won ’ t envelope you in misery and dismay at man ’ s wickedness and apparent desire to destroy the planet by next Wednesday .
I am not aware of having read any of his material before and was drawn to it as , like Michael Moore , I had heard that he had belatedly realised that in order to keep our lights on and civilisation functioning , we needed to turn to nuclear power .
I found myself nodding at many pages of this large and well referenced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t agree with the basic premise that man ’ s excessive CO2 is the root cause of our climate ‘ problems ’ .
Many of the ‘ facts ’ and scenarios are already set out in Wells book , but Shellenberger refreshingly interprets them in an entirely different , more realistic and positive manner .
He recognises that pristine forest is cleared , not because locals enjoy burning trees , but that they need farmland to support their family .
That using wood and dung for cooking by natives in parts of Africa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inefficient and polluting fuel they can find , but because that is what is available .
That villagers killing wild life around the periphery of African wildlife parks , is not to find tasty and exotic food , but because the creatures are destroying their crops .
Coal he recognises as the boon it has been for centuries , and that the faster undeveloped nations can industrialise , the quicker they will move away from it , have smaller families and place less pressure on the environment .
He is also highly ambivalent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Greenpeace .
A review by Kerry Emanuel sums it up ; This is an enjoyable and level headed book worth reading in its own right to understand the issues , arguments and the authors solutions , and one to give as a present to those who need to calm down and realise the situation is nowhere near as bad as they believe .
The books sub heading ; “ How Climate Change Panic costs us Trillions , hurts the Poor , and Fails to Fix the Planet ’ sums up the books themes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these assertions with numerous references .
Lomborg remains a Luke warmer , but one who recognises the costs and difficulty of achieving what ardent environmentalists demand .
A review by Jordan Peterson neatly sums up the book , its contents and its aims ; Lomborg sets out his stall early in the book : Sceptics who believe man has little culpability in the matter can meet with climate anxious friends and relatives on this halfway ground more usefully than the ‘ Now or never , close the world down immediately ’ scenarios often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the hard core activists attitudes summed up by Wells book .
Whilst devout sceptics might not agree with the basic message of either Shellenberger or Lomborg , at least these authors views are not apocalyptic and provide useful material to reassure the climate alarmed groups that the end of the world in not nigh .
In that respect , encouraging the spread of these more moderate views will ensure that at least the world won ’ t be upended and civilisation reversed to save us from ourselves .
Very readable .
I have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ useful place in highlighting such world events as the ‘ Climate Emergency ’ and its attendant alarmism , irrationality and disturbing solutions based on increasingly authoritarian demands .
As with Orwell ’ s ‘ 1984 ’ and ‘ Animal Farm ’ this unassuming book exposes these shrill traits in a chilling manner .
Any long term sceptic will recognise the scenarios that unfold , as authorities and increasingly confident activists take ever more drastic action against climate realists .
In this case , epitomised by a public spirited but naive retired meteorologist called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , worked in a junior capacity for an oil firm by advising on weather conditions as they affected the safety of employees working on oil rigs .
Any mention of Oil has of course become a red rag to a raging out of control bull .
As a modest and un-forecasted storm overwhelms London due to the flood defences not being closed , the UK govt and people look for a scapegoat , and it is our unassuming central character who becomes the villain .
The book pinpoints the hypocrisy of celebrity ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they want to observe and report to their social media bubbles just how dire things are , through to the disturbing audited personal carbon rations , bans on meat , dairy and imported food and many goods-except for the elite .
It becomes inevitable that this growing insanity will result in a climate court run by brainwashed children and overseen by a govt increasingly scared at what they have unleashed .
Even the most innocuous weather event is viewed as man ’ s fault and when the govt agrees to publicise the daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the climate we should not be surprised when it includes a flock of geese drowned on local marshes , ‘ exhausted ’ after battling climate change induced storms , and drowning in marshlands more flooded than ‘ normal.
’ In response , the govt on the back foot of outraged and hysterical public opinion at this ecocide , rename the “ Department for the Climate Apocalypse ” to the “ Department for Climate Armageddon.
” Inconvenient facts on past storms and weather events , and the use of previously authenticated historic temperatures are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act to reference them or to deny the reality of climate change .
People killed by climate change in the official records now include a cyclist thrown off his bicycle by a pothole , allegedly caused by unusual levels of rain and frost ; a woman allergic to bee stings who had been stung by one considered to be unusually active for the time of year .
Highly recommended .
Why not give a copy to alarmist friends and relatives in the hope they will be able to see , through satire , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absurdity of the claims made of our dire effect on the climate , the mounting hysteria , the irrational actions , the witch-hunts and the economic collapse that faces us as we try to eliminate the last vestige of CO2 emissions ?
That renewables failed to step into the power gap caused by the wholesale closure of other forms of British energy generation should also come as a warning to those convinced renewables will be our saviour .
If they tell you that Bryan Geavis got what he deserved , then it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chilling , perceptive , often funny and entertaining , it is surely a shape of things to come if the climate madness continues .
Books on renewables .
When compiling this review I was aware of the lack of a good book setting out the arguments in favour of , and the counter arguments to , the use of renewables and the desire to rapidly phase out fossil fuel as a means of generating power .
I like the idea of ‘ free ’ energy from the sun , wind , and water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but recognise their dependency on the vagaries of the weather gods and shortcomings over storage , reliability , costs , back up , availability of raw materials , environmental damage , extravagant use of space etc .
However govts all over the world are promoting them as the means to fulfil the much desired ‘ zero net emissions of CO2.
’ Why ?
What calculations of the suitability of renewables as our 24/7 base power are the govt buying into , encouraged by environmental pressure groups ?
Do Governments know something about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mostly believe that renewables are inadequate as a means of base power to keep lights on 24/7 and in promoting them politicians will unwittingly dismantle civilisation whilst chasing Unicorns ?
Nuclear seems to be low on the list of possible sources of ‘ renewable ’ energy -indeed is actively disliked by many environmental groups and governments-which has prompted recent interventions by such as Michael Shellenberger and Zion Lights , former spokesperson for anti-nuclear power group Extinction rebellion who resigned and is a co-founder of ‘ Nuclear for net zero.
’ Does anyone know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Preferably one similar in size to Greta ’ s slim handbook that will succinctly set out facts and figures and the plus and negative points , without having to plough through pages of philosophical debate , personal opinion and irrelevant material etc ?
Clearly more facts and figures are needed before either ‘ side ’ of the fossil fuel versus renewables debate can persuade the other of the merit of their energy policy .
Reading numerous climate related books over the last few weeks to produce this Christmas reading short list , reveals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many of the authors in the climate alarmist field and the political and socially aware ‘ Climate Justice ’ views they hold .
The books explained the mind-set of influential and often extreme climate activists who have captured the ears of govt , the cheque books and public posturing of many corporations , and the outpourings of the ‘ liberal ’ media .
Their position readily explains why those who are unaware of climate history or can demonstrate an inability to put events into a broader context , believe the current situation to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ catastrophic ’ climate change with such fear .
But all will apparently be well once we wholeheartedly embrace the renewable energy revolution .

Guest Post by Tony Brown (tonyb)
Sceptics hoping to counter the mounting hysteria and calls for dramatic action to combat the ‘Climate Emergency,’ may want to ensure they are properly informed on the issues, in contrast to those that boldly claim that ‘climate change is rubbish’ or that highly qualified scientists are idiots who don’t know what they are doing.
This is a shortlist of recent books to read that will help you to better understand your climate anxious friends and relatives, others are potential book presents to try to calm their more extreme concerns. I have read the books myself through the eyes of someone involved in writing articles on climate change for some 15 years, mostly from a historical perspective.
In recommending this selection it should be noted that I have provided details of physical books, not e-material (if available). Books allow one to dip in and out according to time availability, are useful reference material for a book shelf, and if intended as a gift has more presence than e- material. My apologies in advance, but I use the word ‘hysteria’ a lot.
Those wanting to understand why their young relatives and friends have such concerns about the climate that many believe will severely affect their adult lives, will find this first selection a good place to start, to help understand where their concerns are coming from.
“No one is Too Small to make a difference” Greta Thunberg. Softback. Penguin Books; ISBN 978-0-141-99174-0
Greta is the world’s most famous school truant to climate sceptics, but she provides the teenage rebelliousness-a climate strike every Friday- and the black and white certainties that young people appreciate.
She is highly influential, not only to her peers, but also to schoolteachers and to world leaders. British sceptics were highly embarrassed when senior British govt. figures fawned over her during a visit and she is said to be responsible for influencing the European Union’s zero emissions plan. Through her histrionics at the UN she also reached a much wider audience.
This book is as petulant and pouty as she comes over, and is an astonishingly slim book, which provides trite certainties such as ‘Our house is on fire,’ apocalyptic interpretations of climate events, and confident assertions such as ‘we need to focus every inch of our being on climate change ‘ and misrepresentation; ‘According to the IPCC report we are about eleven years away (from 2019) from being in a position where we set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control.” Easy to see why teenagers are scared about their future with such hysteria.
Her failure to recognise there are two sides to every balance sheet is a fundamental flaw; for example in bashing the UK for its ‘mind blowing historical carbon debt’ she fails to acknowledge that as a result of that nation launching the industrial revolution, ordinary people live longer, healthier, happier, richer and more fulfilled lives, with more freedoms human rights and respect for the rule of law than in the entire history of humanity.
Sit down with a very hot cup of coffee and the coffee will probably still be warm by the time you have finished reading this trivial but iconic booklet, that will provide an invaluable insight into what is driving many of the young, to whom slogans seem to be replacing facts and personal analysis. Its greatest merit is its brevity, which means it is more accessible than some of the very wordy and tedious tomes published about climate.
“The Uninhabitable Earth” by David Wallace-Wells . Softback. Penguin ISBN 978-0-141-98887-0
For those wanting to understand why adult friends and relatives are experiencing severe cases of climate hysteria, this is the book. It is depressingly and relentlessly downbeat, apocalyptic, strident and accusatory. Those who weren’t alarmed before about the climate would be after reading this gloomy tome, if they take the things written at face value.
It is well referenced and sceptics will be familiar with many of the scenario and the players involved. It will provide an invaluable insight into the minds of those who believe we should mobilise against climate change in the same way as with World War 2, and why extreme activists believe the draconian govt actions taken against Covid 19 should be equally applied to the climate change that they believe to be an even worse disaster, unfolding now.
The book is enthusiastically endorsed by such as the Washington Post and the UK Sunday Times and a flavour of the hysteria surrounding it can be seen in two of the reviews; ‘If we don’t want our grandchildren to curse us we had better read this book’ Timothy Snyder.
‘This book may come to be regarded as the last truly great climate assessment ever made. Is there even time left to pen another? Clear, engaging and often dazzling.” The UK Daily Telegraph (normally a rather sober paper)
Full of nuggets of information –although some may query their accuracy-passionate, intellectual, philosophical and often densely written, it is not an easy book to read, as the authors style and tendency to mix subjects, means it does not always flow smoothly. So if some of your friends and relatives are already beyond extreme anxiety, but appear to be well informed, they may already be a reader of this well regarded author. Consequently, reading it yourself may help to better understand their fears, and judge how unfounded you believe them to be. That the ‘Climate Emergency” is already overwhelming us and will only get much worse is the overall message.
The Afterword to the paperback edition states; ‘The final pages of the manuscript of this book was written in early September of 2018 in a spirit of halfway optimism, which at the time I halfway believed.”
If this is halfway optimism Iwould hate to hear the author’s definition of pessimism. This is a thoroughly depressing book, full of dire interpretations of events and with little regards to history. If your friends and relatives follow this influential author, or those of a similar nature loudly proclaiming a climate apocalypse, it should be no surprise if they demand that you repent your views, as urgent action is clearly needed to fix things, in their opinion. Your more rational attitude to the climate will no doubt enrage and baffles them and may have fractured relationships. This book is recommended only because it gives such a good insight into the philosophical mind-set of this type of author and those who read their words approvingly.
After all that gloom, it is a pleasure to turn to 2 books that won’t envelope you in misery and dismay at man’s wickedness and apparent desire to destroy the planet by next Wednesday.
‘Apocalypse Never’ by Michael Shellenberger Hardback. Harper Publications ISBN978-0-06-300
I am not aware of having read any of his material before and was drawn to it as, like Michael Moore, I had heard that he had belatedly realised that in order to keep our lights on and civilisation functioning, we needed to turn to nuclear power.
I found myself nodding at many pages of this large and well referenced book, although most sceptics won’t agree with the basic premise that man’s excessive CO2 is the root cause of our climate ‘problems’. Many of the ‘facts’ and scenarios are already set out in Wells book, but Shellenberger refreshingly interprets them in an entirely different, more realistic and positive manner.
He recognises that pristine forest is cleared, not because locals enjoy burning trees, but that they need farmland to support their family. That using wood and dung for cooking by natives in parts of Africa is not to deliberately use the most inefficient and polluting fuel they can find, but because that is what is available. That villagers killing wild life around the periphery of African wildlife parks, is not to find tasty and exotic food, but because the creatures are destroying their crops.
Coal he recognises as the boon it has been for centuries, and that the faster undeveloped nations can industrialise, the quicker they will move away from it, have smaller families and place less pressure on the environment. He is also highly ambivalent about the role of such organisations as Greenpeace.
A review by Kerry Emanuel sums it up;
‘In this engaging and well researched treatise, Michael Shellenbergr exposes the environmentalist movements hypocrisy in painting climate change in apocalyptic terms, while steadfastly working against nuclear power, the one green energy source whose implementation could feasibly avoid the worst climate risks. ‘
This is an enjoyable and level headed book worth reading in its own right to understand the issues, arguments and the authors solutions, and one to give as a present to those who need to calm down and realise the situation is nowhere near as bad as they believe .
“False Alarm” by Bjorn Lomborg. Hardback Hachette books ISBN 978 1-5416-4746-1
The books sub heading; “How Climate Change Panic costs us Trillions, hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet’ sums up the books themes, as Lomborg sets out to demonstrate these assertions with numerous references.
Lomborg remains a Luke warmer, but one who recognises the costs and difficulty of achieving what ardent environmentalists demand. A review by Jordan Peterson neatly sums up the book, its contents and its aims;
‘Bjorn Lomborg’s new book offers a data-driven human centred antidote to the oft apocalyptic discussion characterising the effect of human activity on the global climate. Careful, compelling and above all sensible and pragmatic .”
Lomborg sets out his stall early in the book:
‘Climate change is real, it is caused predominately by carbon emissions from humans burning fossil fuels and we should tackle it intelligently. But to do that we need to stop exaggerating, stop arguing that it is now or never, and stop thinking climate is the only thing that matters.’
Sceptics who believe man has little culpability in the matter can meet with climate anxious friends and relatives on this halfway ground more usefully than the ‘Now or never, close the world down immediately’ scenarios often evinced by media, radical scientists and the hard core activists attitudes summed up by Wells book.
Whilst devout sceptics might not agree with the basic message of either Shellenberger or Lomborg, at least these authors views are not apocalyptic and provide useful material to reassure the climate alarmed groups that the end of the world in not nigh. In that respect, encouraging the spread of these more moderate views will ensure that at least the world won’t be upended and civilisation reversed to save us from ourselves. Very readable.
The Denial “ by Ross Clark Softback. Lume Books; ISBN 978-1-83901-210-5
I have long believed that fictional satire has a useful place in highlighting such world events as the ‘Climate Emergency’ and its attendant alarmism, irrationality and disturbing solutions based on increasingly authoritarian demands.
As with Orwell’s ‘1984’ and ‘Animal Farm’ this unassuming book exposes these shrill traits in a chilling manner. Any long term sceptic will recognise the scenarios that unfold, as authorities and increasingly confident activists take ever more drastic action against climate realists. In this case, epitomised by a public spirited but naive retired meteorologist called Bryan Geavis. He at one time, worked in a junior capacity for an oil firm by advising on weather conditions as they affected the safety of employees working on oil rigs. Any mention of Oil has of course become a red rag to a raging out of control bull.
As a modest and un-forecasted storm overwhelms London due to the flood defences not being closed, the UK govt and people look for a scapegoat, and it is our unassuming central character who becomes the villain. The book pinpoints the hypocrisy of celebrity ‘climate influencers’ allowed to fly where they want to observe and report to their social media bubbles just how dire things are, through to the disturbing audited personal carbon rations, bans on meat, dairy and imported food and many goods-except for the elite. It becomes inevitable that this growing insanity will result in a climate court run by brainwashed children and overseen by a govt increasingly scared at what they have unleashed.
Even the most innocuous weather event is viewed as man’s fault and when the govt agrees to publicise the daily count of those ‘killed’ by the climate we should not be surprised when it includes a flock of geese drowned on local marshes, ‘exhausted’ after battling climate change induced storms, and drowning in marshlands more flooded than ‘normal.’ In response, the govt on the back foot of outraged and hysterical public opinion at this ecocide, rename the “Department for the Climate Apocalypse” to the “Department for Climate Armageddon.”
Inconvenient facts on past storms and weather events, and the use of previously authenticated historic temperatures are disregarded, and it is a criminal act to reference them or to deny the reality of climate change.
People killed by climate change in the official records now include a cyclist thrown off his bicycle by a pothole, allegedly caused by unusual levels of rain and frost; a woman allergic to bee stings who had been stung by one considered to be unusually active for the time of year.
Highly recommended. Why not give a copy to alarmist friends and relatives in the hope they will be able to see, through satire, the way we are heading, the absurdity of the claims made of our dire effect on the climate, the mounting hysteria, the irrational actions, the witch-hunts and the economic collapse that faces us as we try to eliminate the last vestige of CO2 emissions?
That renewables failed to step into the power gap caused by the wholesale closure of other forms of British energy generation should also come as a warning to those convinced renewables will be our saviour.
If they tell you that Bryan Geavis got what he deserved, then it is time to find new friends and relatives
Chilling, perceptive, often funny and entertaining, it is surely a shape of things to come if the climate madness continues.
Books on renewables. When compiling this review I was aware of the lack of a good book setting out the arguments in favour of, and the counter arguments to, the use of renewables and the desire to rapidly phase out fossil fuel as a means of generating power.
I like the idea of ‘free’ energy from the sun, wind, and water as a means to replace fossil fuels, but recognise their dependency on the vagaries of the weather gods and shortcomings over storage, reliability, costs, back up, availability of raw materials, environmental damage, extravagant use of space etc. However govts all over the world are promoting them as the means to fulfil the much desired ‘zero net emissions of CO2.’
Why? What calculations of the suitability of renewables as our 24/7 base power are the govt buying into, encouraged by environmental pressure groups? Do Governments know something about renewables that sceptics have missed, who mostly believe that renewables are inadequate as a means of base power to keep lights on 24/7 and in promoting them politicians will unwittingly dismantle civilisation whilst chasing Unicorns?
Nuclear seems to be low on the list of possible sources of ‘renewable’ energy -indeed is actively disliked by many environmental groups and governments-which has prompted recent interventions by such as Michael Shellenberger and Zion Lights, former spokesperson for anti-nuclear power group Extinction rebellion who resigned and is a co-founder of ‘Nuclear for net zero.’
Does anyone know of such a book to review? Preferably one similar in size to Greta’s slim handbook that will succinctly set out facts and figures and the plus and negative points, without having to plough through pages of philosophical debate, personal opinion and irrelevant material etc?
Clearly more facts and figures are needed before either ‘side’ of the fossil fuel versus renewables debate can persuade the other of the merit of their energy policy.
Climate Publications-The means to an end?
Reading numerous climate related books over the last few weeks to produce this Christmas reading short list, reveals the highly philosophical and theoretical nature of many of the authors in the climate alarmist field and the political and socially aware ‘Climate Justice’ views they hold.
The books explained the mind-set of influential and often extreme climate activists who have captured the ears of govt, the cheque books and public posturing of many corporations, and the outpourings of the ‘liberal’ media. Their position readily explains why those who are unaware of climate history or can demonstrate an inability to put events into a broader context, believe the current situation to be unique, and consequently view ‘catastrophic’ climate change with such fear.
But all will apparently be well once we wholeheartedly embrace the renewable energy revolution.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Future Energy Scenarios & Peak Demand

Future Energy Scenarios & Peak Demand

In our discussions of the grid capacity needed for EVs , I mentioned reading that the National Grid said the extra required would be tiny , maybe 5 GW or so .
We can check , because last summer they published this year ’ s Future Energy Scenarios ( FES ) .
The FES does not say how much extra capacity we need for EVs on their own , but it does tell us how much we would need in a Net Zero scenario in total , ie including heat pumps and other electrification as well as cars .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not be quantified separately as they are all an integral part of the whole .
There are four scenarios , but the one that is relevant is Consumer Transformation .
System Transformation involves maximising hydrogen , and the other two speak for themselves : And this is the key chart , showing that peak demand would rise from around 60GW to 96GW : Clearly this is a lot more than the small increase indicated by the National Grid .
It is true of course that heat pumps and other things will increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come as part of a parcel .
For instance , although it is claimed that most EV charging will take place at night , much of the surplus power at that time is already being offset by demand side response , battery storage , thermal storage , electrolysis and so on .
But even then , the assumptions used are so rose coloured as to be meaningless fantasy .
Indeed , the name “ Consumer Transformation ” gives the game away – it assumes that human nature will change .
Let ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and cars .
The FES expects homeowners to upgrade to the most ambitious insulation , and only use appliances when demand is low .
And not only will people have to fork out for expensive heat pumps and insulation , they will also be expected to install thermal storage as well , so as to avoid using power at peak demand periods : This is all utterly fanciful .
Can you really expect the public to spend thousands of pounds and alter their lifestyles , just so as the National Grid can get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for itself ?
( And , yes , that also includes turning down the thermostat ! )
Then we come to electric cars .
The first assumption which sticks out like a sore thumb is that the number of cars will drop to 27.9m , from the current level of 33m .
Of the 27.9m , autonomous cars will account for 6.3m , so private ownership will drop to 21.6M : In contrast , the Committee on Climate Change assumed there will be 46m cars in their Net Zero Plan , ( which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 2050 ) .
The FES assumes that there will be many less second cars , and that millions will happily walk or take the bus instead .
Will all of this happen , just because people want to save the planet ?
Human nature tells us not .
Over the years , people in Britain have become steadily richer , and unsurprisingly they want to spend that money .
Fifty years ago or so , many bought their first cars .
Later on , families could afford two cars , go on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchase all sorts of goods which not only consume energy but need it in manufacture .
Are they expected to give up all of these trappings of the good life , just to keep their carbon footprint down ?
On top of that , EV owners are expected to meekly let the grid decide when the cars can be charged , and even take electricity back when the grid is in short supply : This I have to say is cloud cuckoo land for the vast majority , who will continue to plug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unplug before the grid can get their hands on their stored power the next morning .
The only thing which might influence them is if the price of power during the day and early evening is set at a punitive level , which would not be politically acceptable .
In any event , as I have already noted , charging EVs at night will not make a whole lot of difference anyway , as the potential surplus of power at night is small .
According to FES , if smart charging is used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by about 10GW .
V2G ( vehicle to grid ) might potentially reduce peak demand by 5GW , in the unlikely event people leave their cars plugged during the day , but the shortfall would need to be made good that same night , which simply adds to demand then .
The FES reckons road transport will need about 100 TWh a year .
Even if this was spread out absolutely perfectly throughout the year , it would equate to 12GW .
This could just about be absorbed at night , but daytime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much .
When you factor in the CCC ’ s projection of 46m cars , that 12GW would nearly double .
In any case , such a perfect spread of charging is an impossibility .
Charging is bound to be a much less regular and unpredictable occurrence .
As such , the CCC ’ s estimate of 150GW peak demand is much more realistic than the FES vision of what might happen in a perfect world .
Finally let ’ s look at how peak demand progressively rises : Consumer Transformation naturally has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a massive rollout of hydrogen , both for heating and transport .
Leading The Way assumes everybody cuts their energy consumption to a minimum , and Steady Progression says we decarbonise very slowly .
The FES assumes that petrol/diesel cars will be banned from 2035 in the Consumer scenario .
As we know that has now been brought forward .
We could therefore find that peak demand could hit 80GW by the mid 2030s .
Bearing in mind that we would need more capacity to allow for de-rating , that would require at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by then .
Once all of the coal power stations have closed , we will be lucky to have half that much .
But more on that tomorrow .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
https://subscribers.nationalgrid.co.uk/t/d-l-cljkdul-jiwdisdl-y/
In our discussions of the grid capacity needed for EVs, I mentioned reading that the National Grid said the extra required would be tiny, maybe 5 GW or so.
We can check, because last summer they published this year’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES).
I did a full analysis here.
The FES does not say how much extra capacity we need for EVs on their own, but it does tell us how much we would need in a Net Zero scenario in total, ie including heat pumps and other electrification as well as cars. In essence, individual parts of the plan cannot be quantified separately as they are all an integral part of the whole.
There are four scenarios, but the one that is relevant is Consumer Transformation. System Transformation involves maximising hydrogen, and the other two speak for themselves:
And this is the key chart, showing that peak demand would rise from around 60GW to 96GW:
Clearly this is a lot more than the small increase indicated by the National Grid. It is true of course that heat pumps and other things will increase demand as well, but they all come as part of a parcel.
For instance, although it is claimed that most EV charging will take place at night, much of the surplus power at that time is already being offset by demand side response, battery storage, thermal storage, electrolysis and so on.
But even then, the assumptions used are so rose coloured as to be meaningless fantasy. Indeed, the name “Consumer Transformation” gives the game away – it assumes that human nature will change.
Let’s examine the two major areas, homes and cars.
The FES expects homeowners to upgrade to the most ambitious insulation, and only use appliances when demand is low.
And not only will people have to fork out for expensive heat pumps and insulation, they will also be expected to install thermal storage as well, so as to avoid using power at peak demand periods:
This is all utterly fanciful. Can you really expect the public to spend thousands of pounds and alter their lifestyles, just so as the National Grid can get out of the mess it has created for itself? (And, yes, that also includes turning down the thermostat!)
Then we come to electric cars.
The first assumption which sticks out like a sore thumb is that the number of cars will drop to 27.9m, from the current level of 33m.
Of the 27.9m, autonomous cars will account for 6.3m, so private ownership will drop to 21.6M:
In contrast, the Committee on Climate Change assumed there will be 46m cars in their Net Zero Plan, (which incidentally calculated peak demand would be 150GW by 2050).
The FES assumes that there will be many less second cars, and that millions will happily walk or take the bus instead. Will all of this happen, just because people want to save the planet? Human nature tells us not.
Over the years, people in Britain have become steadily richer, and unsurprisingly they want to spend that money.
Fifty years ago or so, many bought their first cars. Later on, families could afford two cars, go on foreign holidays, buy bigger houses and purchase all sorts of goods which not only consume energy but need it in manufacture.
Are they expected to give up all of these trappings of the good life, just to keep their carbon footprint down?
On top of that, EV owners are expected to meekly let the grid decide when the cars can be charged, and even take electricity back when the grid is in short supply:
This I have to say is cloud cuckoo land for the vast majority, who will continue to plug in when they get home, and unplug before the grid can get their hands on their stored power the next morning.
The only thing which might influence them is if the price of power during the day and early evening is set at a punitive level, which would not be politically acceptable.
In any event, as I have already noted, charging EVs at night will not make a whole lot of difference anyway, as the potential surplus of power at night is small.
According to FES, if smart charging is used, it only cuts EV peak demand by about 10GW. V2G (vehicle to grid) might potentially reduce peak demand by 5GW, in the unlikely event people leave their cars plugged during the day, but the shortfall would need to be made good that same night, which simply adds to demand then.
The FES reckons road transport will need about 100 TWh a year. Even if this was spread out absolutely perfectly throughout the year, it would equate to 12GW. This could just about be absorbed at night, but daytime peak demand would also rise by this much.
When you factor in the CCC’s projection of 46m cars, that 12GW would nearly double.
In any case, such a perfect spread of charging is an impossibility. Charging is bound to be a much less regular and unpredictable occurrence.
As such, the CCC’s estimate of 150GW peak demand is much more realistic than the FES vision of what might happen in a perfect world.
Finally let’s look at how peak demand progressively rises:
Consumer Transformation naturally has the highest demand. System Transformation assumes a massive rollout of hydrogen, both for heating and transport. Leading The Way assumes everybody cuts their energy consumption to a minimum, and Steady Progression says we decarbonise very slowly.
The FES assumes that petrol/diesel cars will be banned from 2035 in the Consumer scenario. As we know that has now been brought forward. We could therefore find that peak demand could hit 80GW by the mid 2030s.
Bearing in mind that we would need more capacity to allow for de-rating, that would require at least 100GW of firm, dispatchable capacity by then. Once all of the coal power stations have closed, we will be lucky to have half that much.
But more on that tomorrow.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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November 27, 2020 at 01:03PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Trudeau Pranked by Fake Greta

Trudeau Pranked by Fake Greta

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Today’s Holiday weekend Friday Funny HT/John H
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November 27, 2020 at 12:13PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-27--Climate Activism! Donna Laframboise LIVE online Dec 8, 2020, 7pm MST

Due to pandemic restrictions and concern for public safety , our annual in-person event , originally scheduled for April 6 @ @ @ @ @ as a two-part series .
Each event with have … Continue reading The post Climate @ @ @ @ @ online Dec 8 , 2020 , 7pm MST first appeared on Friends of Science Calgary @

Due to pandemic restrictions and concern for public safety, our annual in-person event, originally scheduled for April 6, 2020 is going online as a two-part series.
Each event with have … Continue reading
The post Climate Activism! Donna Laframboise LIVE online Dec 8, 2020, 7pm MST first appeared on Friends of Science Calgary.
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November 27, 2020 at 11:50AM