iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--Tying celestial mechanics to Earth’s ice ages

Gradual falls and sharp rises in temperature for millions of years have profoundly affected living conditions on the planet and , consequently , our own evolution .
Mark Maslin is a professor of Earth system science in the department of geography at University College London .
Milutin Milanković , a brilliant Serbian mathematician and climatologist , postulated in 1941 that variations in Earth ’ s orbit could push the planet ’ s climate in or out of an ice age.1 Vital to that idea is the amount of insolation—incoming solar radiation—at 65° N , a bit south of the Arctic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can vary seasonally by 25 % .
Milanković argued that reductions in summer insolation allow some winter ice to survive .
Each year for thousands of years , ice accumulates around 65° N and eventually forms sheets large enough to trigger an ice age .
Three scientists joined forces 30 years later to verify Milanković ’ s theory using deep-sea sediment cores collected by the international Ocean Drilling Program .
James Hays examined marine microfossils in the cores to estimate past sea-surface temperatures .
Nicholas Shackleton measured the oxygen isotope composition in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes in past global ice volume .
And the last member of the team , John Imbrie , brought an expertise in time-series analysis to the project .
In 1976 they published a seminal paper showing that their climate record contained the same temporal cycles as three parameters , summarized in figure 1 , that describe Earth ’ s orbit : eccentricity , obliquity , and precession.2 Eccentricity describes the shape of Earth ’ s orbit around the Sun .
As Earth experiences a gravitational force from Jupiter , its orbit adjusts during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perfect circle to an ellipse , which causes minor variations in total insolation .
Obliquity—the tilt of Earth ’ s axis of rotation with respect to the plane of its orbit—fluctuates during a period of 41 000 years between 21.8˚ and 24.4˚ and is currently at 23.4˚ .
A larger obliquity generates a greater difference in the insolation Earth receives during summer and winter .
The third orbital parameter , precession , occurs every 21 700 years and influences Earth ’ s closest approach to the Sun .
During each hemisphere ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the tropics .
Tidal forces of the Sun and Moon , amplified by Earth ’ s oblate spheroid shape , cause one component of precession .
Those forces exert gyroscopic motion on the planet that changes the orientation of its rotational axis .
The second component of precession moves Earth ’ s entire orbit around the Sun in space and resembles the petals of a flower , as shown in figure 1c .
Over the past 2.5 million years , Earth has undergone some 50 major ice ages and each has substantially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last one 21 000 years ago , a nearly continuous ice sheet spanned North America .
At its thickest , across what is now Hudson Bay , it was more than two miles deep and reached as far south as New York City and Cincinnati , Ohio .
The British–Irish ice sheet spread as far south as Norfolk , and the Scandinavian ice sheet extended from Norway to the Ural Mountains in Russia .
In the Southern Hemisphere , large ice sheets covered Patagonia , South Africa , southern Australia , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ locked in all those ice sheets that global sea level dropped 120 m , yet if all the Antarctic and Greenland ice melted today , sea level would rise only by 70 m. How did small wobbles in Earth ’ s orbit cause those ice ages ?
Summer temperatures must first decrease a little bit .
The consequent accumulation of snow and ice increases Earth ’ s albedo—the reflection of sunlight to space .
Reflecting more sunlight suppresses local temperatures and promotes more snow and ice accumulation , which increases the albedo further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feedback , is responsible for building increasingly bigger ice sheets .
Another positive feedback cycle triggers when ice sheets , such as the Laurentide sheet that once covered much of North America , become big enough to deflect atmospheric planetary waves .
The change redirects storm paths across the North Atlantic Ocean and prevents the Gulf Stream and its northeastward arm , the North Atlantic Drift , from penetrating as far north as they do today .
The surface ocean effects , combined with melt-water increase in the Nordic Seas and the Atlantic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of cold , salty water ( see Physics Today , April 2019 , page 19 ) .
As less water in the North Atlantic is driven to the deep ocean , the Gulf Stream pulls less warm water northward , and increased cooling in the Northern Hemisphere expands the ice sheets .
Greenhouse gases ( GHGs ) in the atmosphere reinforce ice-sheet feedbacks .
Analyses of air bubbles trapped in polar ice indicate that during glacial periods carbon dioxide concentrations dropped by a third and methane by half .
Changes in GHGs always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ therefore a clear driving force of climate change , not a response to it.4 Runaway positive feedbacks froze most of Earth ’ s water billions of years ago during snowball Earth events , but moisture limitation has prevented a more recent episode .
Forming an ice sheet requires a cold , wet climate .
But as an ice sheet forces warm surface water farther south , the supply of moisture decreases .
By changing the atmosphere and ocean circulation , ice sheets starve themselves of moisture , and that negative feedback loop limits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past million years , ice sheets have taken at least 80 000 years to reach their maximum extent , which occurred most recently about 21 000 years ago .
However , ice melts much quicker than that : 80 % of expanded ice sheets can be lost in 4000 years .
Summer sunshine at 65° N triggers deglaciation and starts the melting of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets .
Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere promote climate change and further melt large continental ice sheets .
Such processes work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keep the ice sheets intact by producing a cooler microclimate .
Ultimately , rising sea levels diminish large ice sheets because the coldest that seawater can be is −1.8 ˚C , whereas the temperature of the ice sheet ’ s base is −30 ˚C .
As seawater melts the ice sheets by undercutting them , ice calves into the ocean .
The calving raises sea level further and causes more undercutting ( see Physics Today , October 2019 , page 14 ) .
The sea-level feedback mechanism can be extremely rapid .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other feedback mechanisms—albedo , atmospheric and ocean circulation , and GHGs—are reversed .
That ’ s why glaciologists and climatologists worry about future climate change : It will activate those feedbacks and cause irreversible instability to the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets ( see Physics Today , July 2014 , page 10 ) .
The last million years of glacial–interglacial cycles , each lasting about 100 000 years , have a saw-toothed pattern with a long period of cooling followed by a short , warm one of rapid melting .
More @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycles were smoother , and each lasted only 41 000 years , as shown in figure 2 .
That period corresponds to the length of the orbital change associated with obliquity , which controls the heat transfer between low and high latitudes and thus regulates ice growth .
Figure 2 .
Many glacial–interglacial cycles ( red solid line ) during the last 5 million years can be seen from measurements of the oxygen isotope composition of lake records .
Large ice sheets started to grow in North America 2.5 million years ago during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ iNHG ) .
The development of the atmospheric Walker Circulation ( DWC ) started 1.7 million years ago in the Pacific Ocean and is sustained by a large east-to-west sea-surface-temperature gradient .
About 1 million years ago , during the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution ( MPR ) , the polar ice caps expanded toward the equator , and the glacial–interglacial cycle period increased from an average of 41 000 years to 100 000 years .
( Adapted from ref .
3 . )
For many years , scientists struggled to explain the 100 000-year glacial–interglacial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a similar length .
But eccentricity is by far the weakest of the orbital variations , and many thought it predominantly modulated precession , so scientists suggested several nonlinear feedbacks to explain the discrepancy .
But they found an answer when they realized that the 100 000-year cycle is a statistical artifact .
The average length of the last eight cycles is indeed 100 000 years , but each one varies from 80 000 to 120 000 years .
Every fourth or fifth precessional cycle is weak enough that ice sheets can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea-level rise during deglaciation .
The next precessional cycle is always much stronger than the previous one and initiates rapid , extreme deglaciation through the sea-level feedback.5 Although the timing of deglaciation seems to better match precession , some researchers have argued that the long glacial–interglacial cycles may correspond to every second or third obliquity cycle.6

From Physics Today
Gradual falls and sharp rises in temperature for millions of years have profoundly affected living conditions on the planet and, consequently, our own evolution.
Mark Maslin is a professor of Earth system science in the department of geography at University College London.
Physics Today 73, 5, 48 (2020); https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.4474
Milutin Milanković, a brilliant Serbian mathematician and climatologist, postulated in 1941 that variations in Earth’s orbit could push the planet’s climate in or out of an ice age.1 Vital to that idea is the amount of insolation—incoming solar radiation—at 65° N, a bit south of the Arctic Circle. At that latitude, insolation can vary seasonally by 25%. Milanković argued that reductions in summer insolation allow some winter ice to survive. Each year for thousands of years, ice accumulates around 65° N and eventually forms sheets large enough to trigger an ice age.
Three scientists joined forces 30 years later to verify Milanković’s theory using deep-sea sediment cores collected by the international Ocean Drilling Program. James Hays examined marine microfossils in the cores to estimate past sea-surface temperatures. Nicholas Shackleton measured the oxygen isotope composition in the sediment’s layers, which showed changes in past global ice volume. And the last member of the team, John Imbrie, brought an expertise in time-series analysis to the project. In 1976 they published a seminal paper showing that their climate record contained the same temporal cycles as three parameters, summarized in figure 1, that describe Earth’s orbit: eccentricity, obliquity, and precession.2
figure 1
Eccentricity describes the shape of Earth’s orbit around the Sun. As Earth experiences a gravitational force from Jupiter, its orbit adjusts during a 96 000-year period from nearly a perfect circle to an ellipse, which causes minor variations in total insolation. Obliquity—the tilt of Earth’s axis of rotation with respect to the plane of its orbit—fluctuates during a period of 41 000 years between 21.8˚ and 24.4˚ and is currently at 23.4˚. A larger obliquity generates a greater difference in the insolation Earth receives during summer and winter.
The third orbital parameter, precession, occurs every 21 700 years and influences Earth’s closest approach to the Sun. During each hemisphere’s summer, precession has the greatest effect in the tropics. Tidal forces of the Sun and Moon, amplified by Earth’s oblate spheroid shape, cause one component of precession. Those forces exert gyroscopic motion on the planet that changes the orientation of its rotational axis. The second component of precession moves Earth’s entire orbit around the Sun in space and resembles the petals of a flower, as shown in figure 1c.
The great ice ages
Over the past 2.5 million years, Earth has undergone some 50 major ice ages and each has substantially changed the planet’s climate.3 During the last one 21 000 years ago, a nearly continuous ice sheet spanned North America. At its thickest, across what is now Hudson Bay, it was more than two miles deep and reached as far south as New York City and Cincinnati, Ohio. The British–Irish ice sheet spread as far south as Norfolk, and the Scandinavian ice sheet extended from Norway to the Ural Mountains in Russia. In the Southern Hemisphere, large ice sheets covered Patagonia, South Africa, southern Australia, and New Zealand. So much water was locked in all those ice sheets that global sea level dropped 120 m, yet if all the Antarctic and Greenland ice melted today, sea level would rise only by 70 m.
How did small wobbles in Earth’s orbit cause those ice ages? Summer temperatures must first decrease a little bit. The consequent accumulation of snow and ice increases Earth’s albedo—the reflection of sunlight to space. Reflecting more sunlight suppresses local temperatures and promotes more snow and ice accumulation, which increases the albedo further. The process, called an ice–albedo feedback, is responsible for building increasingly bigger ice sheets.
Another positive feedback cycle triggers when ice sheets, such as the Laurentide sheet that once covered much of North America, become big enough to deflect atmospheric planetary waves. The change redirects storm paths across the North Atlantic Ocean and prevents the Gulf Stream and its northeastward arm, the North Atlantic Drift, from penetrating as far north as they do today. The surface ocean effects, combined with melt-water increase in the Nordic Seas and the Atlantic, cause a decrease in the sinking of cold, salty water (see Physics Today, April 2019, page 19). As less water in the North Atlantic is driven to the deep ocean, the Gulf Stream pulls less warm water northward, and increased cooling in the Northern Hemisphere expands the ice sheets.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere reinforce ice-sheet feedbacks. Analyses of air bubbles trapped in polar ice indicate that during glacial periods carbon dioxide concentrations dropped by a third and methane by half. Changes in GHGs always precede variations in global temperatures and are therefore a clear driving force of climate change, not a response to it.4
Runaway positive feedbacks froze most of Earth’s water billions of years ago during snowball Earth events, but moisture limitation has prevented a more recent episode. Forming an ice sheet requires a cold, wet climate. But as an ice sheet forces warm surface water farther south, the supply of moisture decreases. By changing the atmosphere and ocean circulation, ice sheets starve themselves of moisture, and that negative feedback loop limits the effects of positive ones.
For the past million years, ice sheets have taken at least 80 000 years to reach their maximum extent, which occurred most recently about 21 000 years ago. However, ice melts much quicker than that: 80% of expanded ice sheets can be lost in 4000 years. Summer sunshine at 65° N triggers deglaciation and starts the melting of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere promote climate change and further melt large continental ice sheets. Such processes work against the ice–albedo effect, which acts to keep the ice sheets intact by producing a cooler microclimate.
Ultimately, rising sea levels diminish large ice sheets because the coldest that seawater can be is −1.8 ˚C, whereas the temperature of the ice sheet’s base is −30 ˚C. As seawater melts the ice sheets by undercutting them, ice calves into the ocean. The calving raises sea level further and causes more undercutting (see Physics Today, October 2019, page 14). The sea-level feedback mechanism can be extremely rapid. Once the ice sheets are retreating, the other feedback mechanisms—albedo, atmospheric and ocean circulation, and GHGs—are reversed. That’s why glaciologists and climatologists worry about future climate change: It will activate those feedbacks and cause irreversible instability to the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (see Physics Today, July 2014, page 10).
The eccentricity myth
The last million years of glacial–interglacial cycles, each lasting about 100 000 years, have a saw-toothed pattern with a long period of cooling followed by a short, warm one of rapid melting. More than a million years ago, the cycles were smoother, and each lasted only 41 000 years, as shown in figure 2. That period corresponds to the length of the orbital change associated with obliquity, which controls the heat transfer between low and high latitudes and thus regulates ice growth.
figure 2
Figure 2. Many glacial–interglacial cycles (red solid line) during the last 5 million years can be seen from measurements of the oxygen isotope composition of lake records. Large ice sheets started to grow in North America 2.5 million years ago during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (iNHG). The development of the atmospheric Walker Circulation (DWC) started 1.7 million years ago in the Pacific Ocean and is sustained by a large east-to-west sea-surface-temperature gradient. About 1 million years ago, during the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (MPR), the polar ice caps expanded toward the equator, and the glacial–interglacial cycle period increased from an average of 41 000 years to 100 000 years. (Adapted from ref. 3.)
For many years, scientists struggled to explain the 100 000-year glacial–interglacial cycles because the 96 000-year eccentricity mechanism has a similar length. But eccentricity is by far the weakest of the orbital variations, and many thought it predominantly modulated precession, so scientists suggested several nonlinear feedbacks to explain the discrepancy. But they found an answer when they realized that the 100 000-year cycle is a statistical artifact.
The average length of the last eight cycles is indeed 100 000 years, but each one varies from 80 000 to 120 000 years. Every fourth or fifth precessional cycle is weak enough that ice sheets can grow bigger and thus more vulnerable to sea-level rise during deglaciation. The next precessional cycle is always much stronger than the previous one and initiates rapid, extreme deglaciation through the sea-level feedback.5 Although the timing of deglaciation seems to better match precession, some researchers have argued that the long glacial–interglacial cycles may correspond to every second or third obliquity cycle.6
Full article here.
HT/Leif Svalgaard


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--Week in review – climate science edition

A few things that caught my eye this past week — climate science & policy High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate [ link ] “ Impacts of landscape changes on local and regional climate : a systematic review ” Cao et al 2020. https : //link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01015-7… Four theories of the Madden Julian Oscillation [ link ] NEW paleoclimate records from Europe , Scandinavia-Russia , China , and USA https : //notrickszone.com/2020/04/27/new-northern-hemisphere-temperature-reconstructions-are-devoid-of-michael-mann-like-hockey-sticks/ A new 411 BCE to 2016 tree ring temperature record from the northeastern US shows no such hockey stick exists .
https : //harvardforest1.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/publications/pdfs/Pearl_QuatSciRev_2019.pdf A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Yamal ) has warmed 3 to 6 times SLOWER in the 20th century than during the 4th , 15th and 19th centuries .
1900s-2000s warming : 0.37°C to 0.85°C/100 yrs Roman , Medieval , 1800s warming : 1.37°C to 3.31°C/100 yrs https : //link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05179-5 Publication of the Temperature 12k database https : //rdcu.be/b3y6w the most comprehensive compilation of quality-controlled , multi-proxy temperature time series from 470 terrestrial and 209 marine sites globally .
The Climate Club : how to fix a failing global effort [ link ] Systemic Misuse of Scenarios in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
abstract_id=3581777… Why coal phaseout is a ‘ no-regret ’ plan for tackling climate change https : //j.mp/2ykUQK2 documenting changes in meteorological , agricultural , and hydrological drought in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios !
https : //agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001461… Lomborg : .
Welfare in the 21st century : Increasing development , reducing inequality , the impact of climate change and the cost of climate policies .
https : //sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 ?
casa_token=NRkZBctJY6wAAAAA:90tDKISLWFhLsG7I7ykmv03T7Pzs0-igMS2GMOqcU5IdveWUWU9IlZR8gKbgYGuDlJuwiBYAlvI “ …in a closely watched case with extensive implications , the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the federal Clean Water Act applies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into nearby lakes , streams , and bays… ” [ link ] The Netherlands become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like [ link ] Using more realistic scenarios and assigning probabilities is not a robust basis for a climate risk assessment .
Approaches for decision making under @ deepuncertainty provide an alternative .
https : //go.nature.com/2Vrlp9o Michael Schellenberger on Michael Moore ’ s new documentary Planet of the Humans [ link ] “ If this [ a 5 % drop in global carbon emissions ] is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world down , it illustrates the scope and scale of the climate challenge , which is fundamentally changing the way we make and use energy and products ” [ link ] By bringing already available technologies and techniques into wider use , we could avoid nearly 40 % of the methane the world is projected to emit by 2050. https : //ensia.com/notable/methane-greenhouse-gas-climate-change/… The threat to academic freedom .
.
.
from academics [ link ] Overlooked no more : Eunice Foote , climate scientist forgotten to history [ link ] Frank Ramsey : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ link ] the Superior Court of D.C. granted motions from the National Academy of Sciences & researcher Christopher Clack , each seeking awards of attorneys fees and costs , in a case involving Stanford professor Mark Jacobson that dates back to a 2017 PNAS paper .
[ link ] The Verdict is in : courtrooms seldom overrule bad science [ link ] An ideological asymmetry among academic philosophers : left-leaning philosophers reported greater willingness to discriminate against their right-leaning colleagues ( e.g.
, in hiring , paper reviews ) than right-leaning philosophers reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ link ] Natural variability or climate change ?
Exploring stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution https : //authors.elsevier.com/a/1asI % 7E3Q8oQ2z6Z… V. interesting retrospective on the D-Day weather forecast of 1944 https : //journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0311.1

by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week — climate science & policy
High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate [link]
“Impacts of landscape changes on local and regional climate: a systematic review” Cao et al 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01015-7…
“Nature’s Contributions to Adaptation”: https://tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/26395916.2020.1754919…
Four theories of the Madden Julian Oscillation [link]
NEW paleoclimate records from Europe, Scandinavia-Russia, China, and USA https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/27/new-northern-hemisphere-temperature-reconstructions-are-devoid-of-michael-mann-like-hockey-sticks/
A new 411 BCE to 2016 tree ring temperature record from the northeastern US shows no such hockey stick exists. https://harvardforest1.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/publications/pdfs/Pearl_QuatSciRev_2019.pdf
A new study affirms Northern Eurasia (Sweden, Yamal) has warmed 3 to 6 times SLOWER in the 20th century than during the 4th, 15th and 19th centuries. 1900s-2000s warming: 0.37°C to 0.85°C/100 yrs Roman, Medieval, 1800s warming: 1.37°C to 3.31°C/100 yrs https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05179-5
Publication of the Temperature 12k database https://rdcu.be/b3y6w the most comprehensive compilation of quality-controlled, multi-proxy temperature time series from 470 terrestrial and 209 marine sites globally.
Policy
The Climate Club: how to fix a failing global effort [link]
Systemic Misuse of Scenarios in Climate Research and Assessment https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3581777…
Why coal phaseout is a ‘no-regret’ plan for tackling climate change https://j.mp/2ykUQK2
Managing deep uncertainty: exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making [link]
IPCC baseline scenarios over-project CO2 emissions and economic growth [link]
documenting changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios! https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001461…
Lomborg:. Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change and the cost of climate policies. https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157?casa_token=NRkZBctJY6wAAAAA:90tDKISLWFhLsG7I7ykmv03T7Pzs0-igMS2GMOqcU5IdveWUWU9IlZR8gKbgYGuDlJuwiBYAlvI
“…in a closely watched case with extensive implications, the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the federal Clean Water Act applies to pollution of underground water that flows into nearby lakes, streams, and bays…” [link]
The Netherlands become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like [link]
A global food system is a less vulnerable system [link]
Using more realistic scenarios and assigning probabilities is not a robust basis for a climate risk assessment. Approaches for decision making under @deepuncertainty provide an alternative. https://go.nature.com/2Vrlp9o
Michael Schellenberger on Michael Moore’s new documentary Planet of the Humans [link]
Between complacency and panic [link]
Managing California’s wildfire risk [link]
“If this [a 5% drop in global carbon emissions] is all we get from shutting the entire world down, it illustrates the scope and scale of the climate challenge, which is fundamentally changing the way we make and use energy and products” [link]
By bringing already available technologies and techniques into wider use, we could avoid nearly 40% of the methane the world is projected to emit by 2050. https://ensia.com/notable/methane-greenhouse-gas-climate-change/…
Climate change issue of Foreign Affairs, with some very different opinions on successful climate strategies. https:// foreignaffairs.com/issues/2020/99 /3 …
.
Cow poop to transportation fuel – the California way to a cleaner future [ link
.
Finding natural solutions to manmade problems in river deltas [ link
About science and scientists
The threat to academic freedom . . . from academics [link]
Overlooked no more: Eunice Foote, climate scientist forgotten to history [link]
Frank Ramsey: The man who thought too fast [link]
Rules of thumb for evaluating statistical models [link]
Rising CO2 will make us stupider [link]
the Superior Court of D.C. granted motions from the National Academy of Sciences & researcher Christopher Clack, each seeking awards of attorneys fees and costs, in a case involving Stanford professor Mark Jacobson that dates back to a 2017 PNAS paper. [link]
The Verdict is in: courtrooms seldom overrule bad science [link]
An ideological asymmetry among academic philosophers: left-leaning philosophers reported greater willingness to discriminate against their right-leaning colleagues (e.g., in hiring, paper reviews) than right-leaning philosophers reported in regards to their left-leaning peers [link]
Natural variability or climate change? Exploring stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1asI%7E3Q8oQ2z6Z…
V. interesting retrospective on the D-Day weather forecast of 1944 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0311.1
Cognitive biases: Mistakes or missing stakes? [link]
via Climate Etc.
https://ift.tt/2StiiM1
May 2, 2020 at 01:59PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--Blackout risk as low demand for power brings plea to switch off wind farms

Her story is behind a paywall at The Times , but this is the gist : Britain could be at risk of blackouts as extremely low energy demand threatens to leave the electricity grid overwhelmed by surplus power .
National Grid asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to prevent the grid from being swamped on the May 8 bank holiday , when demand is expected to be especially low .
In its urgent request to Ofgem , it warned of “ a significant risk of disruption to security of supply ” if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order plant disconnections were not granted .
It is of course a problem which I have been warning about for a long time , that when wind and solar power are really ramped up there would be huge surpluses of power at certain times of the year , not to mention days , as well as shortages at others .
In this instance , however , the coronavirus lockdown has suppressed demand , thus bringing forward the issue .
Daily demand this week has fluctuated between about 20 and 30 GW each day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower than the same time last year , with the biggest drop seemingly at night time ironically .
Although Emily mentions solar power as an issue , it may well be at night when the risk is greatest .
First , let ’ s have a look at the Univ of Sheffield Solar site for the last week : Bear in mind that most solar generation is embedded , that is it is absorbed by local grids rather than transmitted via the National Grid , As such it shows as a drop in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sheffield site therefore adjusts the total generation upwards , so as to include the solar contribution .
We can see that total generation drops to around 20 GW at night .
Now if we look at the official grid figures for the last 48 hours ( ie excl solar ) , we see that nuclear is supplying a steady 6 GW , which can not easily be switched on and off .
Wind is currently under 2 GW , but was up to nearly 6 GW yesterday : However , we already have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ demand drops to 20 GW , and nuclear remains constant , that would mean the system could only absorb 14 GW of wind power , 58 % of capacity .
On most days , this would be manageable , but if its a windy day next Friday , all bets are off .
I should not finish without mentioning solar power .
This week it has peaked each day at around 7 GW .
At peak solar , ie midday , demand seems to be about 10 GW greater than at night , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grid should cope with the extra generation from solar .
In other words , it is wind power which poses the real problem .
Emily has actually done quite a good job on this one , and her twitter feed mentions that the National Grid are struggling with the legalities of whether they can order generators to switch off .
Hence the talk of emergency powers .
What she does not mention is that this will become a regular and much bigger problem in years to come , when wind and solar capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Committee on Climate Change ’ s 5th Carbon Budget , the central scenario anticipates 47 GW of wind power capacity and 40 GW of solar just by 2030 .
( This compares to 24 GW and 14 GW respectively now . )
Even allowing for higher demand for EVs etc , this clearly is not at all manageable at times of low demand .
Even at average loading , 47 GW of wind power would mean an average load of 17 GW , so there would be surpluses on average every night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably yield about 20 GW at midday , when the extra demand only appears to be 10 GW .
By 2050 , there would need to be much more renewable capacity , of course .
The CCC are talking perhaps of 110 to 175 GW of wind/solar .
There is little prospect we could offload any of this to the continent , who would be in a similar position .
Which brings us back to either paying billions a year in constraint payments , or ordering wind and solar farms to switch .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Little Emily has a scoop:
https://twitter.com/emilygosden/status/1256540336572313600
Her story is behind a paywall at The Times, but this is the gist:
Britain could be at risk of blackouts as extremely low energy demand threatens to leave the electricity grid overwhelmed by surplus power.
National Grid asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to prevent the grid from being swamped on the May 8 bank holiday, when demand is expected to be especially low.
In its urgent request to Ofgem, it warned of “a significant risk of disruption to security of supply” if the “last resort” powers to order plant disconnections were not granted.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blackout-risk-as-low-demand-for-power-brings-plea-to-switch-off-wind-farms-xv36v575x
It is of course a problem which I have been warning about for a long time, that when wind and solar power are really ramped up there would be huge surpluses of power at certain times of the year, not to mention days, as well as shortages at others.
In this instance, however, the coronavirus lockdown has suppressed demand, thus bringing forward the issue.
Daily demand this week has fluctuated between about 20 and 30 GW each day. This is probably about 5 GW lower than the same time last year, with the biggest drop seemingly at night time ironically.
http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
Although Emily mentions solar power as an issue, it may well be at night when the risk is greatest.
First, let’s have a look at the Univ of Sheffield Solar site for the last week:
https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/#
Bear in mind that most solar generation is embedded, that is it is absorbed by local grids rather than transmitted via the National Grid, As such it shows as a drop in demand instead of extra generation. The Sheffield site therefore adjusts the total generation upwards, so as to include the solar contribution.
We can see that total generation drops to around 20 GW at night.
Now if we look at the official grid figures for the last 48 hours (ie excl solar), we see that nuclear is supplying a steady 6 GW, which cannot easily be switched on and off.
Wind is currently under 2 GW, but was up to nearly 6 GW yesterday:
https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=eds/main
However, we already have 24 GW of wind capacity. If demand drops to 20 GW, and nuclear remains constant, that would mean the system could only absorb 14 GW of wind power, 58% of capacity.
On most days, this would be manageable, but if its a windy day next Friday, all bets are off.
I should not finish without mentioning solar power.
This week it has peaked each day at around 7 GW. At peak solar, ie midday, demand seems to be about 10 GW greater than at night, so on the face of it the grid should cope with the extra generation from solar.
In other words, it is wind power which poses the real problem.
Emily has actually done quite a good job on this one, and her twitter feed mentions that the National Grid are struggling with the legalities of whether they can order generators to switch off. Hence the talk of emergency powers.
What she does not mention is that this will become a regular and much bigger problem in years to come, when wind and solar capacity are expanded.
For instance, under the Committee on Climate Change’s 5th Carbon Budget, the central scenario anticipates 47 GW of wind power capacity and 40 GW of solar just by 2030. (This compares to 24 GW and 14 GW respectively now.)
Even allowing for higher demand for EVs etc, this clearly is not at all manageable at times of low demand.
Even at average loading, 47 GW of wind power would mean an average load of 17 GW, so there would be surpluses on average every night.
Meanwhile 40 GW of solar would probably yield about 20 GW at midday, when the extra demand only appears to be 10 GW.
By 2050, there would need to be much more renewable capacity, of course. The CCC are talking perhaps of 110 to 175 GW of wind/solar.
There is little prospect we could offload any of this to the continent, who would be in a similar position.
Which brings us back to either paying billions a year in constraint payments, or ordering wind and solar farms to switch. Something which radically alter their economics.
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May 2, 2020 at 01:15PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--Tough Week For Leftists

Tough Week For Leftists

You know leftists are having a difficult time with their messaging , when they have to censor both Michael Moore @ @ @ @ @ week .

You know leftists are having a difficult time with their messaging, when they have to censor both Michael Moore and Candace Owens the same week.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--As Green West Retreats, Russia Boosts Coal Production: Will Be World’s Top Exporter Within Decade

The world ’ s largest coal-producing country , Russia , plans to increase its output and exports over the next 15 years .
Russia ’ s share of the global coal export market is projected to expand to 25 percent from the current 11 percent .
According to a draft document on state strategy issued by Russia ’ s Ministry of Energy , production will grow to 448-530 million tons annually until 2024 and up to 485-668 million tons annually until 2035 .
Domestic coal consumption will increase by over 12 percent ; it currently stands at around 196 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Southeast Asia , the Middle East and Africa will continue to be the major markets for Russian coal .
Russia is already exporting substantial amounts of coal to China ( some 30 million tons per year ) yet there remains great potential for a boost in exports in the coming years .
The energy ministry expects exports to China to almost double within the next 10 years to 55 million tons , from their current level .
Another Asian market , India , also plans “ significantly increasing ” coking coal imports from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vietnam has already tripled its purchases of Russian coal on the back of the commissioning of several new coal-fired power plants .
Meanwhile , the US Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) expects Russia to overtake Indonesia as the leading thermal coal exporter within this decade .
Coal mining has been a key industry in Russia for a long time , with the costs of production among the world ’ s lowest .
The post As Green West Retreats , Russia Boosts Coal Production : Will Be World ’ s Top Exporter Within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

The world’s largest coal-producing country, Russia, plans to increase its output and exports over the next 15 years. Russia’s share of the global coal export market is projected to expand to 25 percent from the current 11 percent.
According to a draft document on state strategy issued by Russia’s Ministry of Energy, production will grow to 448-530 million tons annually until 2024 and up to 485-668 million tons annually until 2035.
Domestic coal consumption will increase by over 12 percent; it currently stands at around 196 million tons annually. The Asia-Pacific states, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa will continue to be the major markets for Russian coal.
Russia is already exporting substantial amounts of coal to China (some 30 million tons per year) yet there remains great potential for a boost in exports in the coming years. The energy ministry expects exports to China to almost double within the next 10 years to 55 million tons, from their current level.
Another Asian market, India, also plans “significantly increasing” coking coal imports from Russia’s Far Eastern ports. Vietnam has already tripled its purchases of Russian coal on the back of the commissioning of several new coal-fired power plants. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Russia to overtake Indonesia as the leading thermal coal exporter within this decade.
Coal mining has been a key industry in Russia for a long time, with the costs of production among the world’s lowest.
The post As Green West Retreats, Russia Boosts Coal Production: Will Be World’s Top Exporter Within Decade appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 2, 2020 at 12:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-02--US Green Party’s Marxist Agenda

US Green Party’s Marxist Agenda

Don ’ t ask !
!
But I ’ m on the mailing list for the US Green Party .
This is their May Day newsletter : We hope you had a Happy May Day and took a moment commemorate the international struggle for workers ’ rights , equity and justice .
This year , we greeted May Day at a critical juncture in that struggle .
This COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the brutal disregard our economic and political systems have for workers ’ well-being .
Frontline workers are told to go without proper safety equipment , others have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left to fend for themselves , giant corporations have been gifted enormous transfers of wealth and now our communities are bracing for brutal cutbacks to public goods and services at the moment we need them most .
COVID-19 presents only a fraction of what ’ s to come as the climate emergency escalates .
Our hyper-capitalist plutocracy , led by the two parties of War and Wall Street , has flunked this test .
Miserably .
To defend ourselves against `` Shock Doctrine '' -style exploitation of this immediate crisis and to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ averting the crises ahead , we must join together now in strategic , networked collective action to shut this system down .
We are fighting for our lives .
It is not yet safe for physical gatherings but there is still much that a People ’ s Strike can accomplish to support the demands of frontline workers and prepare our communities for the time when we all can — and must — assemble in the streets , city halls and state legislature buildings as necessary to demand a People ’ s Bailout and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sign the People ’ s Strike pledge today and receive updates about organizer trainings , announcements and more information as this wave of strikes and other mass , collective actions develops over the coming weeks .
A reminder , if one was needed , that environmentalism has very little to do with the green agenda .
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By Paul Homewood
Don’t ask!! But I’m on the mailing list for the US Green Party.
This is their May Day newsletter:
We hope you had a Happy May Day and took a moment commemorate the international struggle for workers’ rights, equity and justice. This year, we greeted May Day at a critical juncture in that struggle.
This COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the brutal disregard our economic and political systems have for workers’ well-being. Frontline workers are told to go without proper safety equipment, others have been forced out of work entirely and left to fend for themselves, giant corporations have been gifted enormous transfers of wealth and now our communities are bracing for brutal cutbacks to public goods and services at the moment we need them most.
COVID-19 presents only a fraction of what’s to come as the climate emergency escalates. Our hyper-capitalist plutocracy, led by the two parties of War and Wall Street, has flunked this test. Miserably.
To defend ourselves against "Shock Doctrine"-style exploitation of this immediate crisis and to win the Eco-Socialist Green New Deal necessary for averting the crises ahead, we must join together now in strategic, networked collective action to shut this system down. We are fighting for our lives.
It is not yet safe for physical gatherings but there is still much that a People’s Strike can accomplish to support the demands of frontline workers and prepare our communities for the time when we all can — and must — assemble in the streets, city halls and state legislature buildings as necessary to demand a People’s Bailout and immediate implementation of a Green New Deal.
Sign the People’s Strike pledge today and receive updates about organizer trainings, announcements and more information as this wave of strikes and other mass, collective actions develops over the coming weeks.
—Michael O’Neil, GreenLine Editor and Green Party Communications Manager
https://www.gp.org/greenline_may_day_edition
A reminder, if one was needed, that environmentalism has very little to do with the green agenda.
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May 2, 2020 at 12:09PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--Mysterious, amazingly low oxygen levels, how pulse oximeter gives the first warning of coronavirus

A cheap device might keep people off ventilators and be the first warning of trouble In coronavirus blood oxygen levels can silently drop to unheard of levels .
People may be unaware they even have coronavirus as oxygen levels fall to the point , medico ’ s are rewriting the record books .
This is a hypoxia crisis — it ’ s a defining feature of the disease .
The In the UK , the demand for oxygen at hospitals is so great that the NHS is running out , rationing it , and asking docs to lower their blood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ blood oxy sats ” at home so they get an early warning that they need more serious medical help .
Normal blood oxygen levels are 95-100 % saturated .
Doctors used to get uppity at levels below 92 % , and hospital alarms often go off if children with asthma fall below 90 % .
AT 88 % doctors are putting people on continuous oxygen therapy .
Levels below 80 % are considered dangerous enough to start causing organ damage .
But medical staff are finding covid patients with levels so low @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 percent .
Dr Levitan , an emergency doctor in New York [ … ]

A cheap device might keep people off ventilators and be the first warning of trouble
In coronavirus blood oxygen levels can silently drop to unheard of levels. People may be unaware they even have coronavirus as oxygen levels fall to the point, medico’s are rewriting the record books. This is a hypoxia crisis — it’s a defining feature of the disease. The In the UK, the demand for oxygen at hospitals is so great that the NHS is running out, rationing it, and asking docs to lower their blood oxygen targets.
People are monitoring their “blood oxy sats” at home so they get an early warning that they need more serious medical help. Normal blood oxygen levels are 95-100% saturated. Doctors used to get uppity at levels below 92%, and hospital alarms often go off if children with asthma fall below 90%. AT 88% doctors are putting people on continuous oxygen therapy. Levels below 80% are considered dangerous enough to start causing organ damage. But medical staff are finding covid patients with levels so low they are unheard of — an unbelieveable 50 percent.
Dr Levitan, an emergency doctor in New York […]
Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)
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May 3, 2020 at 04:59AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--Green Extremists Plot ‘To Sabotage UK Economy’

Extinction Rebellion wants activists to stage rent strikes , halt tax payments and take out bank loans they never intend to repay in protest at an economic system they claim is fuelling a climate catastrophe .
Internal documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday set out plans for a ‘ Money Rebellion ’ involving acts of financial sabotage to ‘ directly challenge the fundamental principles that govern our national and global economies ’ .
Despite dire warnings that the coronavirus pandemic has plunged Britain into its worst recession for 300 years , the dossier details how the group – also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rent strike later this month .
It seeks to legitimise the protest by arguing that ‘ our economic system is causing cancer in our planet ’ .
It adds : ‘ We will resist irresponsible lenders .
Some of us will legally dispute debts , others will refuse to pay debts.
’ Barclays Bank is named as a top target , with supporters encouraged to ‘ take out a personal loan or a credit card ’ and ‘ publicly declare that they will not repay the debt ’ .
HSBC , NatWest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are warned that in addition to being sued in the civil courts , they could face prosecution under the Fraud Act , but XR says the risk is outweighed by the damage caused to banks ’ balance sheets and share prices .
Organisers hope the protests will mobilise broader popular support , saying : ‘ Any negative publicity could have the same desired effect as any financial consequence of the rebellion.
’ The detailed documents suggest that while the pandemic has forced XR to ditch its campaign of street protests , the movement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Without pressure from activists , we won ’ t see the increasingly necessary shift to a green economy , ’ the dossier says .
‘ Just as we have lost our usual means of rebelling , a new opportunity has opened up for us in a time when it is vital that we act.
’ It then outlines a desire to launch ‘ direct actions against the organisations acting in support of the cancer-causing system ( banks , accounting firms , investment bodies , regulatory bodies , legal firms and so on ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporters will refuse to pay their rent , adding : ‘ Council tenants and private tenants alike can participate in the strike… on such a scale that it forces a society-wide conversation about our misguided economy.
’ According to the documents , it will be followed by a tax strike involving 10,000 people who will sign a conditional commitment to withhold £100 of income tax .
The post Green Extremists Plot ‘ To Sabotage UK Economy ’ appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Extinction Rebellion wants activists to stage rent strikes, halt tax payments and take out bank loans they never intend to repay in protest at an economic system they claim is fuelling a climate catastrophe.
With Extinction Rebellion, the climate change activist group, currently unable to take to the streets to demonstrate in a traditional fashion under the coronavirus lockdown and social distancing measures, they are planning acts of financial sabotage to ‘directly challenge the fundamental principles that govern our national and global economies’.
Internal documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday set out plans for a ‘Money Rebellion’ involving acts of financial sabotage to ‘directly challenge the fundamental principles that govern our national and global economies’.
Despite dire warnings that the coronavirus pandemic has plunged Britain into its worst recession for 300 years, the dossier details how the group – also known as XR – wants to launch a rent strike later this month.
It seeks to legitimise the protest by arguing that ‘our economic system is causing cancer in our planet’. It adds: ‘We will resist irresponsible lenders. Some of us will legally dispute debts, others will refuse to pay debts.’
Barclays Bank is named as a top target, with supporters encouraged to ‘take out a personal loan or a credit card’ and ‘publicly declare that they will not repay the debt’. HSBC, NatWest and Lloyds are also listed.
Activists are warned that in addition to being sued in the civil courts, they could face prosecution under the Fraud Act, but XR says the risk is outweighed by the damage caused to banks’ balance sheets and share prices. Organisers hope the protests will mobilise broader popular support, saying: ‘Any negative publicity could have the same desired effect as any financial consequence of the rebellion.’
The detailed documents suggest that while the pandemic has forced XR to ditch its campaign of street protests, the movement wants to exploit the crisis.
‘Without pressure from activists, we won’t see the increasingly necessary shift to a green economy,’ the dossier says. ‘Just as we have lost our usual means of rebelling, a new opportunity has opened up for us in a time when it is vital that we act.’
It then outlines a desire to launch ‘direct actions against the organisations acting in support of the cancer-causing system (banks, accounting firms, investment bodies, regulatory bodies, legal firms and so on)’.
XR hopes at least 5,000 supporters will refuse to pay their rent, adding: ‘Council tenants and private tenants alike can participate in the strike… on such a scale that it forces a society-wide conversation about our misguided economy.’
According to the documents, it will be followed by a tax strike involving 10,000 people who will sign a conditional commitment to withhold £100 of income tax.
The post Green Extremists Plot ‘To Sabotage UK Economy’ appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 3, 2020 at 04:27AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--Oil Demand May Never Recover, Green Fantasy Part Deux

The world may never recover its thirst for oil London ( CNN Business ) The world is learning to live with less oil .
It may never look back .
The coronavirus pandemic has destroyed demand for gasoline and jet fuel as billions of people stay home , and there ’ s no guarantee it will ever fully recover despite rock-bottom prices .
The oil industry is bracing for the effects of the crisis to linger .
Employees keep working from home .
International travel stays scarce .
And citizens in once polluted cities , having become accustomed to blue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ encouraging governments to redouble efforts to tackle the climate crisis .
Such changes would come on top of a push for investors to dump oil assets that had been gaining momentum before the recent price crash .
Sustainable energy investments , by comparison , appear to have held up relatively well despite stock market volatility .
I don ’ t know which is funnier… The dumbness of the CNN “ analysis ” is dumbfounding .
( Yes , I know it ’ s the exact opposite of dumbfounding ; I just liked the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a green fantasy can get : The “ world ” is putting up with being under house arrest , creating a situation where there is too much oil .
On the other hand , the oil industry is learning how to already knew how to deal with this sort of situation .
Six US oil firms are expected to shut 300,000 barrels per day of production in May and June PUBLISHED WED , APR 29 20209:18 AM EDT UPDATED MOMENTS AGO Natasha Turak U.S. energy companies are taking an axe to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the industry that in the last few years made America the world ’ s number one oil producer .
Six major U.S. shale producers are expected to shut some 300,000 barrels per day ( bpd ) of crude for the months of May and June , according to an analysis of the companies ’ early communication by Rystad Energy .
“ Analyzing communication by Continental Resources , Cimarex Energy , ConocoPhillips , PDC Energy , Parsley Energy and Enerplus Corporation , we estimate that oil production cuts in May and June 2020 could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from about 100,000 bpd of cuts projected for April 2020 , ” Rystad wrote in a report Tuesday .
In March , American producers were still pumping at record highs , according to the Energy Information Administration , even as prices plunged due to the loss of demand from the coronavirus pandemic .
The latest weekly government data shows production at 12.2 million bpd in the third week of April , the lowest level since July and a stunning 900,000 bpd less than its record peak of 13.1 million bpd in early March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head of shale research , estimates a further production decline of “ 900,000 bpd , 250,000 bpd and 400,000 bpd in Permian , Eagle Ford and Bakken throughout 2Q20 respectively , ” referring to the biggest shale formations in the U.S. , with shut-ins accounting for 60 % of that initially .
As rigs disappear , US is set to return to ‘ net importer ’ status When OPEC and non-OPEC producer countries including Russia , Canada , Norway and Brazil joined forces to implement a coordinated oil production cut to put a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 9.7 million bpd from May 1 — the U.S. did not technically join , relying instead on market dynamics to force production down .
That ’ s happening now , both in the form of companies shutting in their wells and cutting investment and projects for new wells .
And with production costs much higher than most of its global competitors , the EIA actually expects the U.S. to “ return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020.
” Market watchers are now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuelled for years by cheap money and drowning in debt — will ever be able to attract investors again , save for the large-cap companies whose balance sheets will allow them to survive this downturn .
With US production set to decline by 2 million bbl/d ( or more ) in the second quarter of 2020 , OPEC+ and other producers cutting production by about 10 million bbl/d is coupled with a resumption of demand growth , guess what will happen ?
Oil Up on Cuts and Early Signs of Demand Recovery by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 , 2020 ( Bloomberg ) — Oil advanced for a second day on signs fuel consumption is starting to recover in the world ’ s biggest economies , while global production cuts also begin to offset the demand destruction caused by the coronavirus .
Futures in New York rose around 10 % toward $ 17 a barrel .
They surged by more than a fifth of their value on Wednesday as Energy Information Administration data showed a surprise drop in American gasoline stockpiles and a jump in demand .
In China , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supporting a boost in fuel consumption and refinery processing rates .
U.S. output will fall by 2 million barrels a day in May compared with March and the price of crude has likely bottomed out , according to the head of trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. We may still see repeats of the May contract price collapse , but the rebalancing is well under way .
Many oil companies will file for bankruptcy .
Smaller , “ shale ” players will be particularly hard hit .
Some companies won ’ t survive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t go bankrupt ” … “ Inertia ” will eventually cause production to fall behind demand growth .
Production will fall until demand rises enough to push oil back over $ 40-50/bbl .
Then production will start rising again , US producers will layer on hedges… “ Same song , different verse ” … But , what if ?
Yes… The “ oil industry is bracing for the effects of the crisis to linger , ” that ’ s why most of us are feverishly working on being cash flow positive at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positions are thankful for having lost money on hedges when prices were rising .
Been there , done that , got a closet full of T-shirts .
“ Employees keep working from home ” … until they ’ re directed to come back to work .
According to a recent survey , over half of Americans who still have jobs have been forced to work from home over the past month .
Prior to the ChiCom-19 Hostage Crisis , only about 8 % were working from home .
Let ’ s do some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have no idea if their numbers are right ) … Assuming their numbers are in the ballpark , somewhere around 120 million Americans are currently driving or taking mass transit a lot less than normal , because they are either unemployed or being forced to work from home .
As the economy reopens , will these people choose to stay home ?
Or will they choose to go back to work or back to their offices/workplaces ?
Only about half of those working from home during the hostage crisis wish it was permanent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be up to employers , not employees .
Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that those who worked at home only put in about 3 hours per day , while those who worked at a workplace put in slightly over 8 hours per day .
Most employers would prefer 8 hours per day , or more , from salaried employees .
That ’ s not what the “ citizens ” are demanding .
This is the Hockey Stick that has Americans taking to the streets , demanding an end to the hostage crisis… @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tommy Lee Jones , Larry the Cable Guy or Ron White… Dr .
Evil seemed most appropriate .
Why would any sane person , who has ever had a real job , expect the green schist industries to be immune to ChiCom-19 and the hostage crisis ?
The coronavirus caught the United States flatfooted , rolling over the cleantech sector in the process .
It employs 3.4 million people in this country but it lost 106,000 jobs in March — a number that is expected to rise to 500,000 by summer .
Those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , plumbers , installers and construction workers — tied to everything from energy efficiency to mechanical trades to manufacturing plants .
They are not just America ’ s bread-and-butter but they are also the country ’ s voters and they are based in several states that are up for grabs in the 2020 presidential election .
And now they are at risk .
CMC Services weatherizes and retrofits homes and businesses to make them more energy efficient : In the last month , its revenues have fallen by 85 % and its technical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its president , Tina Bennett .
“ Many of our peers have furloughed or laid off their workforce , ” she said , on the call .
“ These industries are challenged by and vulnerable to the lock-down.
” In the Gulf of Mexico , where I work ( I don ’ t actually work in the Gulf ) , we acted proactively to keep as many production platorms and drilling rigs operating as possible… Gulf of Mexico operators move proactively to keep oil flowing during pandemic By JENNIFER A. DLOUHY AND DAVID @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a thousand offshore drilling rigs and oil production platforms that dot the Gulf of Mexico , workers navigate narrow corridors , sleep in shared rooms and dine in crowded mess halls .
It ’ s an environment designed for efficiency — not for keeping a lethal coronavirus at bay .
“ There ’ s no way to do social distancing on a rig , ” said Tim Tarpley , vice president of the Petroleum Equipment and Services Association .
That ’ s led to worries about the safety of the sites , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as many as 200 workers , and the nation ’ s dependence on their output .
Oil wells in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico supply about 2 million barrels of crude a day , or 15 % of U.S. production .
Similar coronavirus concerns are affecting other energy businesses that rely on employees sleeping in cramped conditions on site — from oil worker camps in North Dakota and Alaska ’ s North Slope to an aluminum smelter in Canada and copper mines in the Chilean desert .
There have been notable outbreaks in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt and cruise ships , underscoring the challenge of containing a virus that spreads easily .
The practical complication of extracting oil amid the coronavirus pandemic is only the latest headwind for an industry already reeling .
Oil prices have crashed as Russia and Saudi Arabia engage in a price war even as the virus causes demand to plummet .
In response to the outbreak , offshore operators have stepped up screening and cleaning , lengthened job assignments and subjected workers to isolation periods .
Some officials have even gamed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operations if the pandemic spreads .
For now , the focus is on staying “ fully operational , ” Interior Secretary David Bernhardt told industry representatives in a conference call Friday , according to two people familiar with the discussion .
Bernhardt also said he was deploying Interior ’ s top offshore drilling regulator , Scott Angelle , to Louisiana , in an effort to keep outer continental shelf oil operations running and ensure a nimble agency response .
There have been at least 23 positive coronavirus cases tied to offshore oil and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ocean Industries Association .
That may correspond with a rapid rise in cases in Louisiana , the home base for many Gulf oil operations and offshore workers .
“ The only option is you ’ ve got to clear everybody before they get on , ” the petroleum association ’ s Tarpley said .
“ You ’ ve got to make sure you don ’ t get positive folks out on the rig.
” This demonstrates that it is possible to keep a business running , where social distancing is not possible , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread of the Chinese Communist virus .
The Federal government supposedly did consider shutting this in due to a few positive tests on offshore personnel… Production from the Gulf of Mexico recently exceeded 2 million bbl/d for the first time in its 70+ year history .
While production will soon start to decline until prices recover , it won ’ t decline nearly as quickly as the “ shale ” plays… Very different “ rocks .
”

Guest “bwahaha!!!” by David Middleton
The world may never recover its thirst for oil Analysis by Julia Horowitz, CNN Business Updated 6:59 AM ET, Wed April 29, 2020 London (CNN Business) The world is learning to live with less oil. It may never look back. The coronavirus pandemic has destroyed demand for gasoline and jet fuel as billions of people stay home, and there’s no guarantee it will ever fully recover despite rock-bottom prices. The oil industry is bracing for the effects of the crisis to linger. Employees keep working from home. International travel stays scarce. And citizens in once polluted cities, having become accustomed to blue skies, demand tougher emissions controls, encouraging governments to redouble efforts to tackle the climate crisis. Such changes would come on top of a push for investors to dump oil assets that had been gaining momentum before the recent price crash. Sustainable energy investments, by comparison,appear to have held up relatively well despite stock market volatility. […] Darth Vader: This is CNN!
I don’t know which is funnier…
Analysis by Julia Horowitz, CNN Business
2016 BA in Political and Social Thought (LinkedIn Rocks!)
Or…
London (CNN Business) The world is learning to live with less oil.
London? Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2018 if I remember correctly.
The dumbness of the CNN “analysis” is dumbfounding. (Yes, I know it’s the exact opposite of dumbfounding; I just liked the sentence.)
This is as bass-ackwards as a green fantasy can get:
The world is learning to live with less oil. 2016 BA in Political and Social Thought
The “world” is putting up with being under house arrest, creating a situation where there is too much oil. On the other hand, the oil industry is learning how to already knew how to deal with this sort of situation.
Six US oil firms are expected to shut 300,000 barrels per day of production in May and June
PUBLISHED WED, APR 29 20209:18 AM EDT UPDATED MOMENTS AGO
Natasha Turak U.S. energy companies are taking an axe to their rig numbers, deepening production cuts for the industry that in the last few years made America the world’s number one oil producer. Six major U.S. shale producers are expected to shut some 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude for the months of May and June, according to an analysis of the companies’ early communication by Rystad Energy. “Analyzing communication by Continental Resources, Cimarex Energy, ConocoPhillips, PDC Energy, Parsley Energy and Enerplus Corporation, we estimate that oil production cuts in May and June 2020 could amount to 300,000 bpd, an increase from about 100,000 bpd of cuts projected for April 2020,” Rystad wrote in a report Tuesday. In March, American producers were still pumping at record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration, even as prices plunged due to the loss of demand from the coronavirus pandemic. The latest weekly government data shows production at 12.2 million bpd in the third week of April, the lowest level since July and a stunning 900,000 bpd less than its record peak of 13.1 million bpd in early March. […] Artem Abramov, Rystad’s head of shale research, estimates a further production decline of “900,000 bpd, 250,000 bpd and 400,000 bpd in Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken throughout 2Q20 respectively,” referring to the biggest shale formations in the U.S., with shut-ins accounting for 60% of that initially. As rigs disappear, US is set to return to ‘net importer’ status When OPEC and non-OPEC producer countries including Russia, Canada, Norway and Brazil joined forces to implement a coordinated oil production cut to put a floor under prices — by a historic 9.7 million bpd from May 1 — the U.S. did not technically join, relying instead on market dynamics to force production down. That’s happening now, both in the form of companies shutting in their wells and cutting investment and projects for new wells. […] And with production costs much higher than most of its global competitors, the EIA actually expects the U.S. to “return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020.” […] Market watchers are now questioning whether the U.S. shale industry — fuelled for years by cheap money and drowning in debt — will ever be able to attract investors again, save for the large-cap companies whose balance sheets will allow them to survive this downturn. […] CNBC
With US production set to decline by 2 million bbl/d (or more) in the second quarter of 2020, OPEC+ and other producers cutting production by about 10 million bbl/d is coupled with a resumption of demand growth, guess what will happen?
Oil Up on Cuts and Early Signs of Demand Recovery
by Bloomberg|Sharon Cho and James Thornhill|Thursday, April 30, 2020 (Bloomberg) — Oil advanced for a second day on signs fuel consumption is starting to recover in the world’s biggest economies, while global production cuts also begin to offset the demand destruction caused by the coronavirus. Futures in New York rose around 10% toward $17 a barrel. They surged by more than a fifth of their value on Wednesday as Energy Information Administration data showed a surprise drop in American gasoline stockpiles and a jump in demand. In China, traffic is returning to the streets, supporting a boost in fuel consumption and refinery processing rates. U.S. output will fall by 2 million barrels a day in May compared with March and the price of crude has likely bottomed out, according to the head of trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. […] RigZone
We may still see repeats of the May contract price collapse, but the rebalancing is well under way. Many oil companies will file for bankruptcy. Smaller, “shale” players will be particularly hard hit. Some companies won’t survive at all, “but rocks don’t go bankrupt”…
When the dust settles in the Permian Basin and other American shale fields, the survivors will be leaner and more tech savvy, according to Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian and vice chairman of IHS Markit Ltd. That means lower production costs and a greater ability to respond to the next price rebound with the last thing Moscow and Riyadh want — another boom. “Companies go bankrupt, but rocks don’t go bankrupt,” Yergin said in an interview. “When this all shakes out, there will be other people to develop shale.” World Oil
“Inertia” will eventually cause production to fall behind demand growth. Production will fall until demand rises enough to push oil back over $40-50/bbl. Then production will start rising again, US producers will layer on hedges… “Same song, different verse”… But, what if?
The oil industry is bracing for the effects of the crisis to linger. Employees keep working from home. International travel stays scarce. 2016 BA in Political and Social Thought
Yes… The “oil industry is bracing for the effects of the crisis to linger,” that’s why most of us are feverishly working on being cash flow positive at $30/bbl and those with solid hedge positions are thankful for having lost money on hedges when prices were rising. Been there, done that, got a closet full of T-shirts.
“Employees keep working from home”… until they’re directed to come back to work. According to a recent survey, over half of Americans who still have jobs have been forced to work from home over the past month.
There are approximately 150 million people in the US workforce. Extrapolating the results of our survey out to the larger population, we can estimate that around 85 million people are now working from home due to Coronavirus. WaveForm
Prior to the ChiCom-19 Hostage Crisis, only about 8% were working from home. Let’s do some math using the WaveForm numbers (I have no idea if their numbers are right)…
Pre-ChiCom-19 Hostage Crisis Work Force 150,000,000 150,000,000 Office/Workplace 133,860,000 18,860,000 Home 11,640,000 96,640,000 Unemployed 4,500,000 34,500,000
Assuming their numbers are in the ballpark, somewhere around 120 million Americans are currently driving or taking mass transit a lot less than normal, because they are either unemployed or being forced to work from home. As the economy reopens, will these people choose to stay home? Or will they choose to go back to work or back to their offices/workplaces? Only about half of those working from home during the hostage crisis wish it was permanent.
However, the choice will mostly be up to employers, not employees. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that those who worked at home only put in about 3 hours per day, while those who worked at a workplace put in slightly over 8 hours per day. Most employers would prefer 8 hours per day, or more, from salaried employees.
And citizens in once polluted cities, having become accustomed to blue skies, demand tougher emissions controls, encouraging governments to redouble efforts to tackle the climate crisis. 2016 BA in Political and Social Thought
That’s not what the “citizens” are demanding. This is the Hockey Stick that has Americans taking to the streets, demanding an end to the hostage crisis…
…encouraging governments to redouble efforts to tackle the climate crisis. 2016 BA in Political and Social Thought
It was either Dr. Evil, Tommy Lee Jones, Larry the Cable Guy or Ron White… Dr. Evil seemed most appropriate.
Such changes would come on top of a push for investors to dump oil assets that had been gaining momentum before the recent price crash. Sustainable energy investments, by comparison,appear to have held up relatively well despite stock market volatility. 2016 BA in Political and Social Thought
Why would any sane person, who has ever had a real job, expect the green schist industries to be immune to ChiCom-19 and the hostage crisis?
Apr 16, 2020, Covid-19 Lockdown Could Kill 500k Cleantech Jobs Ken SilversteinSenior Contributor
Energy The coronavirus caught the United States flatfooted, rolling over the cleantech sector in the process. It employs 3.4 million people in this country but it lost 106,000 jobs in March — a number that is expected to rise to 500,000 by summer. Those are real people: electricians, welders, plumbers, installers and construction workers — tied to everything from energy efficiency to mechanical trades to manufacturing plants. They are not just America’s bread-and-butter but they are also the country’s voters and they are based in several states that are up for grabs in the 2020 presidential election. […] And now they are at risk. CMC Services weatherizes and retrofits homes and businesses to make them more energy efficient: In the last month, its revenues have fallen by 85% and its technical field staff has been idled, says its president, Tina Bennett. “Many of our peers have furloughed or laid off their workforce,” she said, on the call. “These industries are challenged by and vulnerable to the lock-down.” […] Forbes
In the Gulf of Mexico, where I work (I don’t actually work in the Gulf), we acted proactively to keep as many production platorms and drilling rigs operating as possible…
Gulf of Mexico operators move proactively to keep oil flowing during pandemic
By JENNIFER A. DLOUHY AND DAVID WETHE on 4/7/2020 WASHINGTON – Inside more than a thousand offshore drilling rigs and oil production platforms that dot the Gulf of Mexico, workers navigate narrow corridors, sleep in shared rooms and dine in crowded mess halls. It’s an environment designed for efficiency — not for keeping a lethal coronavirus at bay. “There’s no way to do social distancing on a rig,” said Tim Tarpley, vice president of the Petroleum Equipment and Services Association. That’s led to worries about the safety of the sites, the biggest of which resemble mini-cities with as many as 200 workers, and the nation’s dependence on their output. Oil wells in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico supply about 2 million barrels of crude a day, or 15% of U.S. production. Similar coronavirus concerns are affecting other energy businesses that rely on employees sleeping in cramped conditions on site — from oil worker camps in North Dakota and Alaska’s North Slope to an aluminum smelter in Canada and copper mines in the Chilean desert. There have been notable outbreaks in other close quarters too, including the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt and cruise ships, underscoring the challenge of containing a virus that spreads easily. The practical complication of extracting oil amid the coronavirus pandemic is only the latest headwind for an industry already reeling. Oil prices have crashed as Russia and Saudi Arabia engage in a price war even as the virus causes demand to plummet. In response to the outbreak, offshore operators have stepped up screening and cleaning, lengthened job assignments and subjected workers to isolation periods. Some officials have even gamed out hypothetical scenarios that include shutting down operations if the pandemic spreads. For now, the focus is on staying “fully operational,” Interior Secretary David Bernhardt told industry representatives in a conference call Friday, according to two people familiar with the discussion. Bernhardt also said he was deploying Interior’s top offshore drilling regulator, Scott Angelle, to Louisiana, in an effort to keep outer continental shelf oil operations running and ensure a nimble agency response. There have been at least 23 positive coronavirus cases tied to offshore oil and gas facilities, according to the National Ocean Industries Association. That may correspond with a rapid rise in cases in Louisiana, the home base for many Gulf oil operations and offshore workers. “The only option is you’ve got to clear everybody before they get on,” the petroleum association’s Tarpley said. “You’ve got to make sure you don’t get positive folks out on the rig.” […] World Oil
This demonstrates that it is possible to keep a business running, where social distancing is not possible, by taking proactive measures to inhibit the spread of the Chinese Communist virus. The Federal government supposedly did consider shutting this in due to a few positive tests on offshore personnel…
Production from the Gulf of Mexico recently exceeded 2 million bbl/d for the first time in its 70+ year history. While production will soon start to decline until prices recover, it won’t decline nearly as quickly as the “shale” plays… Very different “rocks.”
De oppresso liber!
Sgt. Muldoon says, “Get back to work, America!”


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--Why Eco-Warriors’ Bid To Ban Natural Gas Appliances Is Wrongheaded

Could the 80-year-old phrase “ Now we ’ re cooking with gas ” soon become a relic of the past @ @ @ @ @ proposals to restrict the use of natural gas in commercial and residential buildings as a @ @ @ @ @ .
Households that use natural gas for heating , cooking , and drying clothes save @ @ @ @ @ compared with families using electric appliances .
( Photo : Adrian Rosu / Eyeem/Getty Images @ @ @ @ @ to ban natural gas appliances in homes , a Sierra Club-commissioned report warns of the @ @ @ @ @ using natural gas stoves , furnaces , and water heaters .
Both economically and environmentally @ @ @ @ @ natural gas from homes and commercial buildings is extremely misguided .
For Californians and the @ @ @ @ @ Americans who use natural gas to heat their homes and cook their food , the @ @ @ @ @

PA Pundits – International
By Nicolas Loris ~
Could the 80-year-old phrase “Now we’re cooking with gas” soon become a relic of the past?
Several cities are studying proposals to restrict the use of natural gas in commercial and residential buildings as a way to combat climate change.
Households that use natural gas for heating, cooking, and drying clothes save nearly $900 per year compared with families using electric appliances. (Photo: Adrian Rosu / Eyeem/Getty Images)
In the latest push to ban natural gas appliances in homes, a Sierra Club-commissioned report warns of the adverse public health effects from using natural gas stoves, furnaces, and water heaters.
Both economically and environmentally, the push to ban natural gas from homes and commercial buildings is extremely misguided.
For Californians and the rest of the 177 million Americans who use natural gas to heat their homes and cook their food, the costs would be substantial and…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--Planet of the Humans—Is This the Best They’ve Got?

I have learned that “ include ” is p.r.-ese for “ here is everything we ’ ve got , and @ @ @ @ @ now got over five million views , and the exasperated debunkings have been pouring in @ @ @ @ @ of green energy whines has been pretty much a dribble , with nitpicks about 8 @ @ @ @ @ panels that only last 10 years , a deserted solar desert , soon to be @ @ @ @ @ s reached critical biomass , solar , wind , batteries , electric car charging grids @ @ @ @ @ ago… and that ’ s about it for energy nitpicks .
I can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ , blah , because there ’ s not that much Moore to blah , blah @ @ @ @ @ is one more point they have , which is more substantial than a nitpick .
@ @ @ @ @ make solar and wind farms do not negate their CO2 savings .
This is described @ @ @ @ @ % RE gadfly Blair King ’ s excellent , even handed

I have learned that “include” is p.r.-ese for “here is everything we’ve got, and then some.”
— Andrew Tobias, The Funny Money Game
The Michael Moore documentary,
Planet of the Humans
, has now got over five million views, and the exasperated debunkings have been pouring in. However, their litany of green energy whines has been pretty much a dribble, with nitpicks about 8% efficient solar panels, panels that only last 10 years, a deserted solar desert, soon to be resolared, biomass that’s reached critical biomass, solar, wind, batteries, electric car charging grids, all from ten years ago… and that’s about it for energy nitpicks. I can’t continue with blah, blah, blah, because there’s not that much Moore to blah, blah, blah about.
There is one more point they have, which is more substantial than a nitpick. The fossil fuels used to make solar and wind farms do not negate their CO2 savings. This is described very well in Canadian 100% RE gadfly Blair King’s excellent, even handed
review
:


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--Inconvenient Truths: MSM Attempts to Bury Mike Moore’s Planet of the Humans

Propagandists know that it ’ s best to run silent when they ’ re under siege from ‘ friendlys ’ @ @ @ @ @ media has responded to Planet of the Humans , Michael Moore ’ s withering attack @ @ @ @ @ behind the renewable energy scam ( see above ) .
For the best part of @ @ @ @ @ press has been parroting [ … ]

Propagandists know that it’s best to run silent when they’re under siege from ‘friendlys’, which is how the media has responded to Planet of the Humans, Michael Moore’s withering attack on the power and money behind the renewable energy scam (see above). For the best part of 20 years, the mainstream press has been parroting […]
via STOP THESE THINGS
https://ift.tt/35odCMX
May 3, 2020 at 02:36AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-03--CO2, the Chinese virus and the profiteers of doom

By the time you read this , the monthly Mauna Loa CO concentration will probably have been published .
The profiteers of doom have been delighted by the global Chinese-virus lockdown , which many of them would like to be permanent .
As John Christy reported here yesterday , in March the UAH dataset maintained by Roy Spencer shows the second-biggest month-to-month drop in global mean lower-troposphere temperature since the record began in December 1978 .
But , as Anthony Watts pointed out in a comment , the fall in temperature owes nothing to a decline in CO concentration , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The keepers of the Mauna Loa record agree with him : Let us assume that there has indeed been a 25 % decline in our sins of emission , and that it will persist until the pandemic ends in 18 months ’ time , as some epidemiologists have predicted .
Let us also assume that there will be a further 0.2 ppmv reduction in CO concentration for each of the next 18 months .
Then the CO concentration will have fallen by a dizzying 3.6 ppmv .
Maybe .
For IPCC says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 125 years , in which event nothing we do this century will make much difference to CO concentration .
However , just for fun , let us imagine that over the next 18 months the concentration does indeed fall by 3.6 ppmv .
Let us work out how much global warming the tens of trillions that the Chinese-virus lockdown has cost us will have bought .
In March , the Mauna Loa CO concentration C was 414.5 ppmv .
At the end of the pandemic , then , C will be 410.9 ppmv @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Thermageddonites wish , it would not bounce back to where it is now , but that the pandemic will reduce all subsequent CO concentrations , whatever they might otherwise have been , by 3.6 ppmv .
Let us also pretend that the reduction will occur immediately , rather than in 125 years ’ time .
The coefficient k in the CO forcing equation is 5 ( derived from Andrews et al .
2012 ) .
The Planck or zero-feedback sensitivity parameter P is 0.3 K W–1 m2 ( ibid. )
.
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absurdly exaggerated 3 imagined by IPCC et hoc genus omne ( it is in truth more like 1.2 , which means there is no climate “ emergency ” , but let us be generous to the cult ) .
Eq .
( 1 ) , informed by these quantities , gives the global warming reduction arising from the drastic emissions reduction caused by the pandemic , on the generous assumption that it is a permanent reduction .
Gee wow golly-gosh !
Mirabile dictu !
!
One whole twenty-fifth of a degree !
!
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ !
!
All the numbers fed into Eq .
( 1 ) , as well as the equation itself , are “ mainstream science ” .
And that ’ s the whole problem with this global warming nonsense .
The cost of mitigation is as large as the benefit is small .
Even if we stop emitting CO altogether by 2050 , if IPCC is right the corresponding small reduction in global temperature will take 125 years to come through .
For that reason alone , even before allowing for official climatology ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperature feedback , an error in which IPCC intends fraudulently to persist in its Sixth Assessment Report even though it has been told in writing that its definition is incorrect , it makes no economic sense to do anything whatsoever about global warming except to let it happen , adapt to it and enjoy the sunshine .
Will someone tell world followers ?
Today ’ s graphs show a continuing decline in active cases , but the mean daily compound growth rate in cumulative deaths remains high .
The reason is that at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fatality rate is very high .
Take the United States .
There have been 66,000 reported deaths at the time of writing , but the Centers for Disease Control concluded a couple of days ago that , based on excess mortality data , deaths have been under-reported by about 15 % .
So there have really been about 76,000 deaths .
Assuming a mean 17 days from case report to death , the deaths reported now arose on or about April 13 , when there were 715,000 cases .
So the U.S. case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is about 10.5 % , compared with a global 7.5 % ( and more like 24 % in the UK ) .
But there are now 1.131 million cases in the United States .
Allowing for the current gentle slowing in both reported cases and deaths , even if there were no more cases ( and at present there are 30,000 new ones a day ) , by mid-June and perhaps sooner there will have been 125,000 U.S. deaths associated with the Chinese virus – and counting .
To put this in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past winter ’ s flu season caused somewhere between 20,000 and 62,000 deaths .
Already the Chinese-virus deaths have exceeded the high-end estimate within just a few weeks .
Unfortunately , there are many more deaths to come .
Fig .
1 .
Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 30 , 2020 .
Fig .
2 .
Mean compound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the world excluding China ( red ) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 30 , 2020 .
Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here .

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
By the time you read this, the monthly Mauna Loa CO 2 concentration will probably have been published. The profiteers of doom have been delighted by the global Chinese-virus lockdown, which many of them would like to be permanent.
As John Christy reported here yesterday, in March the UAH dataset maintained by Roy Spencer shows the second-biggest month-to-month drop in global mean lower-troposphere temperature since the record began in December 1978.
But, as Anthony Watts pointed out in a comment, the fall in temperature owes nothing to a decline in CO 2 concentration, whether or not caused by the lockdown. The keepers of the Mauna Loa record agree with him:
Let us assume that there has indeed been a 25% decline in our sins of emission, and that it will persist until the pandemic ends in 18 months’ time, as some epidemiologists have predicted. Let us also assume that there will be a further 0.2 ppmv reduction in CO 2 concentration for each of the next 18 months. Then the CO 2 concentration will have fallen by a dizzying 3.6 ppmv.
Maybe. For IPCC says CO 2 persists in the air for about 125 years, in which event nothing we do this century will make much difference to CO 2 concentration.
However, just for fun, let us imagine that over the next 18 months the concentration does indeed fall by 3.6 ppmv. Let us work out how much global warming the tens of trillions that the Chinese-virus lockdown has cost us will have bought.
In March, the Mauna Loa CO 2 concentration C 0 was 414.5 ppmv. At the end of the pandemic, then, C will be 410.9 ppmv. Let us pretend that, as the Thermageddonites wish, it would not bounce back to where it is now, but that the pandemic will reduce all subsequent CO 2 concentrations, whatever they might otherwise have been, by 3.6 ppmv. Let us also pretend that the reduction will occur immediately, rather than in 125 years’ time.
The coefficient k in the CO 2 forcing equation is 5 (derived from Andrews et al. 2012). The Planck or zero-feedback sensitivity parameter P is 0.3 K W–1 m2 (ibid.). The system-gain factor G from feedbacks is the absurdly exaggerated 3 imagined by IPCC et hoc genus omne (it is in truth more like 1.2, which means there is no climate “emergency”, but let us be generous to the cult).
Eq. (1), informed by these quantities, gives the global warming reduction arising from the drastic emissions reduction caused by the pandemic, on the generous assumption that it is a permanent reduction.
Gee wow golly-gosh! Mirabile dictu!! One whole twenty-fifth of a degree!!! Hold the front page!!!!
All the numbers fed into Eq. (1), as well as the equation itself, are “mainstream science”. And that’s the whole problem with this global warming nonsense. The cost of mitigation is as large as the benefit is small. Even if we stop emitting CO 2 altogether by 2050, if IPCC is right the corresponding small reduction in global temperature will take 125 years to come through.
For that reason alone, even before allowing for official climatology’s glaring error in the definition of temperature feedback, an error in which IPCC intends fraudulently to persist in its Sixth Assessment Report even though it has been told in writing that its definition is incorrect, it makes no economic sense to do anything whatsoever about global warming except to let it happen, adapt to it and enjoy the sunshine.
Will someone tell world followers?
Today’s graphs show a continuing decline in active cases, but the mean daily compound growth rate in cumulative deaths remains high. The reason is that at this stage in the pandemic the case fatality rate is very high. Take the United States.
There have been 66,000 reported deaths at the time of writing, but the Centers for Disease Control concluded a couple of days ago that, based on excess mortality data, deaths have been under-reported by about 15%. So there have really been about 76,000 deaths.
Assuming a mean 17 days from case report to death, the deaths reported now arose on or about April 13, when there were 715,000 cases. So the U.S. case fatality rate, at a rough estimate, is about 10.5%, compared with a global 7.5% (and more like 24% in the UK).
But there are now 1.131 million cases in the United States. Allowing for the current gentle slowing in both reported cases and deaths, even if there were no more cases (and at present there are 30,000 new ones a day), by mid-June and perhaps sooner there will have been 125,000 U.S. deaths associated with the Chinese virus – and counting.
To put this in context, the CDC has estimated that the past winter’s flu season caused somewhere between 20,000 and 62,000 deaths. Already the Chinese-virus deaths have exceeded the high-end estimate within just a few weeks. Unfortunately, there are many more deaths to come.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 30, 2020.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 30, 2020.
Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here.