iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-28--“Global public tells the United Nations: Take action on climate change and the environment”

The United Nations has moved on from conducting simple surveys which all too frequently reveal an embarrassing lack of concern about climate change .
Now they ask activists to hold conversations with their followers , and claim the reported outcome of those conversations is evidence of public support for climate action .
Global public tells the United Nations : Take action on climate change and the environment The United Nations is marking its 75th anniversary at a time of great upheaval , as COVID-19 continues to spread , exacting a heavy toll on lives , societies and economies in all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 , the UN75 initiative launched a global conversation , inviting people around the world to discuss their priorities for the future , obstacles to achieving them , and the role of global cooperation in overcoming these challenges .
As of March 2020 , over 13 million people in nearly all UN Member States had taken part in the initiative , with more than 40,000 completing the one-minute survey , and more than 330 dialogues held in 87 countries .
Respondents placed great emphasis on climate change and the environment , with protection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three priorities .
Climate and the environment were also identified as one of the top three global trends , and widely discussed in the dialogues .
The vast majority of respondents agreed on the need for closer international cooperation to make progress in these and other areas .
COVID-19 has revealed the vulnerability of global systems to protect the environment , health and economy .
There is an increasing recognition of how multiple economic , social and institutional drivers exacerbate environment risks , impacting on human health and increasing the burden on health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( UNEP ) , as the authoritative voice on the environment within the UN system , is well placed to help its member countries rise to the challenge of delivering a better future .
UNEP will celebrate its own anniversary in 2022 , having been at the heart of the environmental movement since the Stockholm Conference in 1972 .
UNEP is also working with partners to implement the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda , particularly in areas that have a direct link to the environment such as hazardous waste , governance , wildlife conservation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out what UNEP is doing to achieve the Goals .
For instance , a key UNEP report is the annual Emissions Gap Report , the most recent issue of which says we must cut global emissions 7.6 per cent every year of the next decade if we are to limit temperature rise per the Paris Agreement to 1.5°C .
A just-released international survey by Ipsos MORI Public opinion on the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic says : “ Seven in ten consider climate change as serious a crisis as COVID-19 , and a similar proportion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it doesn ’ t act on climate change now .
Two thirds globally support a green economic recovery from the crisis.
” Over the course of 2020 , the UN75 team will gather public perspectives on global challenges and solutions on how to tackle them through a one-minute survey ( in 53 languages ) and dialogues – now the bulk of which will be online online – organized by partners across the world .
Nature is in crisis , threatened by biodiversity and habitat loss , global heating and toxic pollution .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Addressing the current coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) pandemic and protecting ourselves against future global threats requires sound management of hazardous medical and chemical waste ; strong and global stewardship of nature and biodiversity ; and a clear commitment to “ building back better ” , creating green jobs and facilitating the transition to carbon neutral economies .
Humanity depends on action now for a resilient and sustainable future .
For more information , please contact Lisa Laskaridis lisa.laskaridis @ un.org

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The United Nations has moved on from conducting simple surveys which all too frequently reveal an embarrassing lack of concern about climate change. Now they ask activists to hold conversations with their followers, and claim the reported outcome of those conversations is evidence of public support for climate action.
Global public tells the United Nations: Take action on climate change and the environment
The United Nations is marking its 75th anniversary at a time of great upheaval, as COVID-19 continues to spread, exacting a heavy toll on lives, societies and economies in all regions of the world.
In January 2020, the UN75 initiative launched a global conversation, inviting people around the world to discuss their priorities for the future, obstacles to achieving them, and the role of global cooperation in overcoming these challenges.
As of March 2020, over 13 million people in nearly all UN Member States had taken part in the initiative, with more than 40,000 completing the one-minute survey, and more than 330 dialogues held in 87 countries.
Respondents placed great emphasis on climate change and the environment, with protection of the environment one of the top three priorities. Climate and the environment were also identified as one of the top three global trends, and widely discussed in the dialogues. The vast majority of respondents agreed on the need for closer international cooperation to make progress in these and other areas.
COVID-19 has revealed the vulnerability of global systems to protect the environment, health and economy. There is an increasing recognition of how multiple economic, social and institutional drivers exacerbate environment risks, impacting on human health and increasing the burden on health services.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as the authoritative voice on the environment within the UN system, is well placed to help its member countries rise to the challenge of delivering a better future. UNEP will celebrate its own anniversary in 2022, having been at the heart of the environmental movement since the Stockholm Conference in 1972.
UNEP is also working with partners to implement the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, particularly in areas that have a direct link to the environment such as hazardous waste, governance, wildlife conservation, climate change and ecosystems. Find out what UNEP is doing to achieve the Goals.
For instance, a key UNEP report is the annual Emissions Gap Report, the most recent issue of which says we must cut global emissions 7.6 per cent every year of the next decade if we are to limit temperature rise per the Paris Agreement to 1.5°C.
A just-released international survey by Ipsos MORI Public opinion on the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic says: “Seven in ten consider climate change as serious a crisis as COVID-19, and a similar proportion feel their government will be failing them if it doesn’t act on climate change now. Two thirds globally support a green economic recovery from the crisis.”
Over the course of 2020, the UN75 team will gather public perspectives on global challenges and solutions on how to tackle them through a one-minute survey (in 53 languages) and dialogues – now the bulk of which will be online online – organized by partners across the world.
Nature is in crisis, threatened by biodiversity and habitat loss, global heating and toxic pollution. Failure to act is failing humanity. Addressing the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and protecting ourselves against future global threats requires sound management of hazardous medical and chemical waste; strong and global stewardship of nature and biodiversity; and a clear commitment to “building back better”, creating green jobs and facilitating the transition to carbon neutral economies. Humanity depends on action now for a resilient and sustainable future.
For more information, please contact Lisa Laskaridis lisa.laskaridis@un.org


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-28--Two Solar Cycles Active at Once

Two Solar Cycles Active at Once

April 27 , 2020 : Today , there are two sunspots in the sun ’ s southern hemisphere .
Their @ @ @ @ @ : They come from different solar cycles .
Take a look at this magnetic map @ @ @ @ @ surface ( with sunspots inset ) from NASA ’ s Solar Dynamics Observatory : One @ @ @ @ @ to old Solar Cycle 24 , while the other ( AR2761 ) belongs to new @ @ @ @ @ know this because of Hale ’ s polarity law .
AR2760 is +/- while AR2761 @ @ @ @ @ that mark them as belonging to different cycles .
This is actually normal .
Solar @ @ @ @ @ boundaries , sprinkling Solar Minimum with a mixture of old- and new-cycle sunspots .
Sometimes @ @ @ @ @ pop up simultaneously .
We might see more such combinations in the months ahead as @ @ @ @ @ through one of the deepest Solar Minima in a century .
The simultaneous appearance of @ @

Spaceweather.com
April 27, 2020: Today, there are two sunspots in the sun’s southern hemisphere. Their magnetic polarity reveals something interesting: They come from different solar cycles. Take a look at this magnetic map of the sun’s surface (with sunspots inset) from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
One sunspot (AR2760) belongs to old Solar Cycle 24, while the other (AR2761) belongs to new Solar Cycle 25. We know this because of Hale’s polarity law. AR2760 is +/- while AR2761 is -/+, reversed signs that mark them as belonging to different cycles.
This is actually normal. Solar cycles always overlap at their boundaries, sprinkling Solar Minimum with a mixture of old- and new-cycle sunspots. Sometimes, like today, they pop up simultaneously. We might see more such combinations in the months ahead as we slowly grind our way through one of the deepest Solar Minima in a century.
The simultaneous appearance of two solar…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-28--Lockdown continues to kill

Lockdown continues to kill

Even cancer examinations and organ transplants not acutely necessary for survival cancelled to make room for Covid-19 patients .
_____________ @ @ @ @ @ UK concludes that there are currently about 2000 people per week dying at home without @ @ @ @ @ or do not want to use the health care system .
These are mainly emergency @ @ @ @ @ strokes as well as chronically ill people .
The German newspaper DIE ZEIT focuses on @ @ @ @ @ German hospitals , which in some departments are as high as 70 % .
Even @ @ @ @ @ that were not acutely necessary for survival had been cancelled to make room for Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ so far been largely absent .
The post Lockdown continues to kill appeared first on @ @ @ @

Even cancer examinations and organ transplants not acutely necessary for survival cancelled to make room for Covid-19 patients.
_____________
Lockdown continues to kill
Penelope
A new analysis from the UK concludes that there are currently about 2000 people per week dying at home without Covid-19 because they cannot or do not want to use the health care system. These are mainly emergency patients with heart attacks and strokes as well as chronically ill people.
Delays cancer treatment
The German newspaper DIE ZEIT focuses on the high vacancy rates in German hospitals, which in some departments are as high as 70%. Even cancer examinations and organ transplants that were not acutely necessary for survival had been cancelled to make room for Covid-19 patients, but these have so far been largely absent.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ April 25
The post Lockdown continues to kill appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 28, 2020 at 11:31AM


Totally misleading…

“ One nursing home reported 4 covid-19 deaths… but it also noted that 3 of those people were in HOSPICE @ @ @ @ @ ” – Jean S One concern I have is that the sloppy definition of what @ @ @ @ @ misleading… to a point of being ridiculous .
‘ I recently read in one of @ @ @ @ @ report about nursing home deaths “ from ” covid-19 in Pima County ( AZ ) @ @ @ @ @ reported 4 covid-19 deaths… but it also noted that 3 of those people were in @ @ @ @ @ !
Meaning they were already dying of something else .
But they are counting those @ @ @ @ @ misleading… The post Totally misleading… appeared first on Ice Age Now .

“One nursing home reported 4 covid-19 deaths… but it also noted that 3 of those people were in HOSPICE before they contracted coronavirus!”
– Jean S
_______________
Totally misleading…
Jean S
One concern I have is that the sloppy definition of what is a covid-19 death is misleading… to a point of being ridiculous. ‘
I recently read in one of the local news articles a report about nursing home deaths “from” covid-19 in Pima County (AZ), where one nursing home reported 4 covid-19 deaths… but it also noted that 3 of those people were in HOSPICE before they contracted coronavirus! Meaning they were already dying of something else. But they are counting those as covid-19 deaths! Totally misleading…
The post Totally misleading… appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 28, 2020 at 11:17AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Mystery ’empty loch’ is now fullest in 20 years

Despite an unusually dry April in the notoriously rainy Scottish Highlands , an unpredictable local loch is now way above normal levels , baffling experts and locals .
– – – The level at a loch that mysteriously lost millions of gallons of water a year ago has risen to one of its highest in years , reports BBC News .
Loch Vaa , near Aviemore in the Cairngorms , is fed by a spring .
In May last year , its lease-holders reported the water level had dropped by 1.4m ( 4.5ft ) for unexplained reasons .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2019 , it has now risen by an extra 2.5m ( 8ft ) , the highest level in decades .
“ The boats in the boathouse were hitting off the roof , ” said Brian O ’ Donnell , who helps to manage use of the loch .
He said : “ It is the highest I have seen in 20 years .
This has happened during what is likely to have been one of the driest Aprils , and after a poor winter with little snow-melt.
” Nearby Avie Lochan is also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed .
Mr O ’ Donnell added : “ It is pretty amazing and we might never know what is going on with the Loch Vaa.
” After losing tens of millions of gallons of water over the course of about nine months to May last year , Loch Vaa returned to normal in September 2019 – but only after almost 40 days of rain .

Despite an unusually dry April in the notoriously rainy Scottish Highlands, an unpredictable local loch is now way above normal levels, baffling experts and locals.
– – –
The level at a loch that mysteriously lost millions of gallons of water a year ago has risen to one of its highest in years, reports BBC News.
Loch Vaa, near Aviemore in the Cairngorms, is fed by a spring.
In May last year, its lease-holders reported the water level had dropped by 1.4m (4.5ft) for unexplained reasons.
However, after returning to normal levels later in 2019, it has now risen by an extra 2.5m (8ft), the highest level in decades.
“The boats in the boathouse were hitting off the roof,” said Brian O’Donnell, who helps to manage use of the loch.
He said: “It is the highest I have seen in 20 years. This has happened during what is likely to have been one of the driest Aprils, and after a poor winter with little snow-melt.”
Nearby Avie Lochan is also spring-fed but its water level has not changed.
Mr O’Donnell added: “It is pretty amazing and we might never know what is going on with the Loch Vaa.”
After losing tens of millions of gallons of water over the course of about nine months to May last year, Loch Vaa returned to normal in September 2019 – but only after almost 40 days of rain.
Full report here.
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April 29, 2020 at 05:48AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--BBC Plug Renewables, But Ignore What Really Keeps Our Grid Afloat

Meanwhile the BBC ’ s One Show has been plugging renewables , with a slot showing how pumped storage and Drax biomass are helping to keep the power flowing : The episode is available on iPlayer here , at about 4 mins in .
It starts with a visit to the pumped storage at Cruachan , which helps to mop up surplus power , as well as providing power when needed .
Pumped storage is of course an important part of the National Grid ’ s toolbox for short term balancing .
However it is tiny in relation to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for instance , only has capacity of 440 MW and 7.1 GWh .
In other words , it can supply electricity for only 16 hours at full load .
This is fine when the Grid needs to make tiny adjustments to maintain frequency , but is next to useless for anything else .
Drax biomass can of course provide greater flexibility , but the programme might have pointed out that vast swathes of US pristine forest are being chopped down to fuel it !
The slot ends with the National Grid chap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blackouts .
But it would have been nice if he could have brought himself to admit that this is only possible because of the availability of large amounts of gas-fired power , which has often been supplying half of our power this month : There is an interesting chart included in the above twitter feed , posted by Drax apparently ( who own Cruachan ) : It is obviously intended to advertise the advantages of pumped storage , but it also highlights the very real drawbacks of wind and solar .
via NOT @ @ @ @ @ @

By Paul Homewood
Meanwhile the BBC’s One Show has been plugging renewables, with a slot showing how pumped storage and Drax biomass are helping to keep the power flowing:
https://twitter.com/Draxnews/status/1255175436692344832
The episode is available on iPlayer here, at about 4 mins in.
It starts with a visit to the pumped storage at Cruachan, which helps to mop up surplus power, as well as providing power when needed.
Pumped storage is of course an important part of the National Grid’s toolbox for short term balancing. However it is tiny in relation to the Grid’s overall needs. Cruachan, for instance, only has capacity of 440 MW and 7.1 GWh. In other words, it can supply electricity for only 16 hours at full load.
This is fine when the Grid needs to make tiny adjustments to maintain frequency, but is next to useless for anything else.
Drax biomass can of course provide greater flexibility, but the programme might have pointed out that vast swathes of US pristine forest are being chopped down to fuel it!
The slot ends with the National Grid chap assuring us that there will be no blackouts. But it would have been nice if he could have brought himself to admit that this is only possible because of the availability of large amounts of gas-fired power, which has often been supplying half of our power this month:
https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/#
FOOTNOTE
There is an interesting chart included in the above twitter feed, posted by Drax apparently (who own Cruachan):
It is obviously intended to advertise the advantages of pumped storage, but it also highlights the very real drawbacks of wind and solar.
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April 29, 2020 at 04:39AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Britain May Not Need Coal, But Still Relies On Gas

I wish somebody could tell why there is such an obsession with coal power !
Given that most of our coal capacity has already been wiped out , it is little surprise that coal power has declined to next to nothing .
But what the Mail inconveniently also points out is that it is now gas which is doing the heavy lifting instead of coal : Worse still for the proponents of renewable energy , who are behind this press release , it is only because of gas that we have managed to balance generation with demand , as wind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to the article : Gareth Redmond-King , head of climate change at WWF-UK , said : ‘ We urgently need to end the UK ’ s contribution to climate change , and this is an important milestone on our journey .
‘ This is the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution – we have been burning fossil fuels longer than anybody else , and we have benefited hugely from it .
‘ Now we are showing real climate leadership and breaking records for coal-free power , year on year , as we try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Renewable energy sources now generate an incredible one-third of UK power , proving we can adapt to live without damaging the planet we call home .
There is no room for coal in a net-zero future.
’ A third of the renewables he quotes , of course , includes dirty biomass , which is neither clean nor low carbon .
And there is no evidence that wind and solar will ever replace fossil fuels , as they are not dispatchable .
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By Paul Homewood
I wish somebody could tell why there is such an obsession with coal power!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8264319/Britain-sees-new-record-coal-free-power-generation.html
Given that most of our coal capacity has already been wiped out, it is little surprise that coal power has declined to next to nothing.
But what the Mail inconveniently also points out is that it is now gas which is doing the heavy lifting instead of coal:
Worse still for the proponents of renewable energy, who are behind this press release, it is only because of gas that we have managed to balance generation with demand, as wind and solar power ebb and flow:
https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/#
According to the article:
Gareth Redmond-King, head of climate change at WWF-UK, said: ‘We urgently need to end the UK’s contribution to climate change, and this is an important milestone on our journey.
‘This is the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution – we have been burning fossil fuels longer than anybody else, and we have benefited hugely from it.
‘Now we are showing real climate leadership and breaking records for coal-free power, year on year, as we try to build a greener future.
‘Renewable energy sources now generate an incredible one-third of UK power, proving we can adapt to live without damaging the planet we call home. There is no room for coal in a net-zero future.’
A third of the renewables he quotes, of course, includes dirty biomass, which is neither clean nor low carbon. And there is no evidence that wind and solar will ever replace fossil fuels, as they are not dispatchable.
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April 29, 2020 at 04:09AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Chinese Scientists: It Was Warmer In China During Medieval Warm Period Than Today

‘ For China as a whole , the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10th–13th centuries ’ Abstract : The Medieval Climate Anomaly ( MCA , AD950-1250 ) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming .
In this study , we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal-centennial scales during the MCA for four regions ( Northeast , Northwest , Central-east , and Tibetan Plateau ) in China , based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from historical documents .
The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series .
The results showed that for China as a whole , the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10th–13th centuries , although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12th century .
However , in the beginning and ending decades , warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other .
On the inter-decadal scale , regional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1130 ; moreover , their amplitudes became smaller , and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250 .
On the multi-decadal to centennial scale , all four regions began to warm in the early 10th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA .
However , the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40–50 years earlier .
On the multi-centennial scale , the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau .
Compared to the mean temperature of the 20th century , a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China , but there was a little cooling in Northeast China ; meanwhile , there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau .
The post Chinese Scientists : It Was Warmer In China During Medieval Warm Period Than Today appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

‘For China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10th–13th centuries’
Source: Hao et al., (2020)
Abstract: The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD950-1250) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal-centennial scales during the MCA for four regions (Northeast, Northwest, Central-east, and Tibetan Plateau) in China, based on high-resolution temperature reconstructions and related warm-cold records from historical documents. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series. The results showed that for China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10th–13th centuries, although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12th century. However, in the beginning and ending decades, warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other. On the inter-decadal scale, regional temperature variations were similar from 950 to 1130; moreover, their amplitudes became smaller, and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250. On the multi-decadal to centennial scale, all four regions began to warm in the early 10th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA. However, the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40–50 years earlier. On the multi-centennial scale, the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice Age was significant in Northeast and Central-east China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the mean temperature of the 20th century, a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China, but there was a little cooling in Northeast China; meanwhile, there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau.
The post Chinese Scientists: It Was Warmer In China During Medieval Warm Period Than Today appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 29, 2020 at 04:07AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Is Working From Home the New Normal? Or a Green Fantasy?

How Working From Home Will Impact Oil Demand Forever By Michael Kern – Apr 23 , 2020 It ’ s day 33 for me .
I leave the house to walk the dog and occasionally swing by the corner store .
But that ’ s about it .
I haven ’ t ridden in a car since March 20th , nor a bus or any form of transportation other than my bicycle .
I ’ m sure I ’ m not alone , and it ’ s got me thinking .
How exactly has this lockdown impacted oil demand ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ way of life become somewhat of a new normal ?
Most articles mention that COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on the demand for crude oil .
Before , about 5 percent of Americans had the luxury of being able to work from home .
Now , more than 30 percent of the country is logging in from their couch instead of pouring up a to-go coffee and rushing out the door every morning .
And though this lockdown has some of us clawing at the walls , desperate to go back to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some change in scenery , the cat is out of the bag .
Workers and companies alike now see that it ’ s actually possible to be productive remotely .
For employers , this means savings .
Cheaper offices , no more mileage checks , no more stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee….you get the picture .
For workers , well , for most , it means one thing and one thing only : no more commute .
So back to my original thought , what if “ when this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just return to what they once were ?
The world is grappling with a ( hopefully ) once-in-a-lifetime crisis , and surely it won ’ t be that easy for many people to simply dive right back into the mix , sitting in a small box for hours upon hours every week .
So where will that leave oil ?
We ’ ve heard “ lower for longer ” oil prices before…right before they jumped back up into the $ 60-70 range .
But what if this is the real deal ?
Could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ series of events that leads to peak oil demand ?
Or will demand recover to pre-crisis levels ?
I think it ’ s about 37 % of Americans who have been able to work from home , to varying extent and effectiveness .
Professional bloggers probably have no problem “ logging on from their couch.
” For most of us with real jobs , it has been less than ideal .
It ’ s been OK for me ; but not as productive as I would have been at the office .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse for the roughly 26 million Americans who have lost their jobs since much of America was placed under house arrest .
This is what the Communist Chinese virus has done to Texas : For every confirmed ChiCom-19 case , 46 Texans have applied for unemployment benefits .
For every death even tangentially related to ChiCom-19 , 1,439 Texans have applied for unemployment benefits .
Government officials from the State to county to local levels have shut our economy down in an effort to prevent the hospitals from becoming overloaded : Mission , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , accomplished… Our hospitals never came close to becoming overloaded .
However , the Texas Workforce Commission was , and still is , overloaded with people filing unemployment claims .
Despite the fact that much of Texas ’ working and school aged population has been under house arrest , 81 % of the cases were among ages 0-64 .
But 76 % of the fatalities have been among people age 65 and older .
In Dallas County , about 40 % of the fatalities “ have been associated with long-term care facilities.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help these people .
Locking it down tighter , faster of for a longer period of time wouldn ’ t have helped them either .
No .
I really don ’ t “ get the picture.
” Most companies that have ” offices , ” either own or lease space for those offices in office buildings and they have generally invested a fair bit of money in their office space .
While professional bloggers might not need anything more than a laptop , WiFi and a couch to professionally blog… That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If it was , our employers , who are always looking to save money , would have just had us work from home in the first place .
Regarding “ stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee , ” if that was a significant cost of doing business , the break room would be devoid of coffee and just about everything else .
The State of Texas actually began reopening last week , with so-called non-essential businesses being allowed to reopen if they can do curbside pickup .
The official reopening is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including restaurants , will be able to reopen with strict social distancing measures .
The City of Colleyville jumped the gun by a week and gave us a sneak peak at what will happen “ when this is all over ” … North Texans head to Colleyville as the city lifts restrictions on restaurants , other businesses By Dionne Anglin Published 3 days ago Colleyville FOX 4 COLLEYVILLE , Texas – The city of Colleyville has moved forward with relaxing restrictions on businesses and churches before Tarrant County and the state of Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what , I ’ m just glad to be out here .
All I had was queso , hot sauce , and chips , “ Hugh Hunt said .
The food , however impressive , was not the biggest incentive for folks flocking to this patio spot for lunch in Colleyville .
“ Somebody finally got the message , we ’ ve got to get back to normal , ” Camilla Puckett said .
“ We drove all the way from Rockwall , which is the other side of Dallas , to just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , support what they were doing .
Excited about getting to eat out again honestly , ” Steve Swofford said .
The Swoffords said that in their opinion , the economy has suffered enough from restrictions brought on by COVID-19 .
“ We feel it ’ s safe right here as we do at Walmart .
In fact , they ’ ve done a great job of spreading out , ” Brenda Swofford said .
“ As we came in , they assured us of the safeguards they ’ ve put in place.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ than others .
“ I have not bought into any of this stuff we ’ ve been going through .
I don ’ t think we should ’ ve ever been shut down .
I ’ m thankful we are finally getting to come out and do what we normally do and go to stores and live a normal life , ” Hunt said .
When Dionne Anglin reported this story on TV the other day , she was actually wearing safety glasses , but no mask… Go figure .
The first question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that leave the people ?
” If their office is reopening , and they stay home , the people find themselves looking for jobs as professional bloggers .
It depends on how many people take up professional blogging .
If enough people stay home , it will leave oil in the ground .
If enough people go back to work , it will cause more oil to come out of the ground .
The company I work for in Houston will start staging the office back open next week .
While I like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would like me back at the office , I ’ ll be there .
I have a hunch that most other people with real jobs will also go back to work… Because very few of us are working from home by choice .
Consumption of petroleum products sharply declined because government officials shut down huge swaths of our economy .
Consumption has actually rebounded ever so slightly over the past couple of weeks… Where will oil demand and prices be next month ?
Six months from now ?
Next year ?
It depends @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reopen .
The Energy Information Administration ’ s most recent Short Term Energy Outlook projected that consumption will be back to normal by Q3 2020 .
With prices returning to “ survivable ” levels by early 2021… We ’ ll see what the May STEO looks like in a couple of weeks .
Until then… I have noticed quite a few comments complaining about by use of “ ChiCom-19 ” instead of whatever the scientific name of the Kung Flu is .
I don ’ t read the comments to other guest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I don ’ t know if this is the case for Christopher Monckton ’ s use of “ Chinese virus ” or Rud Istvan ’ s “ Wuhan # coronavirus.
” • If not , is it the “ Com ” part of ChiCom-19 that irks concern trolls ?
• Why are concern trolls so troubled with offending Communists ?
Sergeant Muldoon clearly was not a concern troll .
They will be back in a future post .
I am gathering more data at the County , State and Federal level .

Guest “NFW!” by David Middleton
How Working From Home Will Impact Oil Demand Forever
By Michael Kern – Apr 23, 2020 It’s day 33 for me. I leave the house to walk the dog and occasionally swing by the corner store. But that’s about it. I haven’t ridden in a car since March 20th, nor a bus or any form of transportation other than my bicycle. I’m sure I’m not alone, and it’s got me thinking. How exactly has this lockdown impacted oil demand? And perhaps more importantly, will this way of life become somewhat of a new normal? Most articles mention that COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on the demand for crude oil. […] Before, about 5 percent of Americans had the luxury of being able to work from home. Now, more than 30 percent of the country is logging in from their couch instead of pouring up a to-go coffee and rushing out the door every morning. And though this lockdown has some of us clawing at the walls, desperate to go back to the office, or at least have some change in scenery, the cat is out of the bag. Workers and companies alike now see that it’s actually possible to be productive remotely. For employers, this means savings. Cheaper offices, no more mileage checks, no more stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee….you get the picture. For workers, well, for most, it means one thing and one thing only: no more commute. […] So back to my original thought, what if “when this is all over” things don’t just return to what they once were? The world is grappling with a (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime crisis, and surely it won’t be that easy for many people to simply dive right back into the mix, sitting in a small box for hours upon hours every week. So where will that leave oil? We’ve heard “lower for longer” oil prices before…right before they jumped back up into the $60-70 range. But what if this is the real deal? Could COVID-19 potentially be a catalyst in a series of events that leads to peak oil demand? Or will demand recover to pre-crisis levels? Oil Price Dot Com
Where do I start?
Before, about 5 percent of Americans had the luxury of being able to work from home. Now, more than 30 percent of the country is logging in from their couch… Professional blogger
I think it’s about 37% of Americans who have been able to work from home, to varying extent and effectiveness. Professional bloggers probably have no problem “logging on from their couch.” For most of us with real jobs, it has been less than ideal. It’s been OK for me; but not as productive as I would have been at the office.
That said, it’s been far worse for the roughly 26 million Americans who have lost their jobs since much of America was placed under house arrest. This is what the Communist Chinese virus has done to Texas:
For every confirmed ChiCom-19 case, 46 Texans have applied for unemployment benefits. For every death even tangentially related to ChiCom-19, 1,439 Texans have applied for unemployment benefits. Government officials from the State to county to local levels have shut our economy down in an effort to prevent the hospitals from becoming overloaded: Mission, to the extent it was even necessary, accomplished…
Texas Statewide Hospitalization Data as of 4/27 at 9:30AM CST Hospital data Count Lab Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Texas Hospitals 1,563 Total Texas Staffed Hospital Beds 51,979 Available Texas Hospital Beds 20,277 Available Texas ICU Beds 2,147 Available Texas Ventilators 6,045 https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/
Our hospitals never came close to becoming overloaded. However, the Texas Workforce Commission was, and still is, overloaded with people filing unemployment claims.
Despite the fact that much of Texas’ working and school aged population has been under house arrest, 81% of the cases were among ages 0-64.
Age of Confirmed Cases as of 4/27 at 9:30 AM CST Age Count Percentage <1 year 17 0.3% 1-9 years 45 0.9% 10-19 years 122 2.5% 20-29 years 689 14.0% 30-39 years 842 17.1% 40-49 years 948 19.2% 50-59 years 906 18.4% 60-64 years 409 8.3% 80.7% 65-69 years 293 5.9% 70-74 years 209 4.2% 75-79 years 142 2.9% 80+ years 279 5.7% Unknown 29 0.6% Total 4,930 100.0% https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/
But 76% of the fatalities have been among people age 65 and older.
Age of Confirmed Fatalities as of 4/27 at 9:30 AM CST Age Count Percentage <1 year 0 0.0% 1-9 years 0 0.0% 10-19 years 0 0.0% 20-29 years 3 0.9% 30-39 years 6 1.9% 40-49 years 15 4.7% 50-59 years 30 9.4% 60-64 years 19 6.0% 23.0% 65-69 years 42 13.2% 70-74 years 30 9.4% 75-79 years 31 9.7% 80+ years 140 44.0% 76.4% Unknown 2 0.6% Grand Total 318 100.0% https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/
In Dallas County, about 40% of the fatalities “have been associated with long-term care facilities.” Locking down the economy didn’t help these people. Locking it down tighter, faster of for a longer period of time wouldn’t have helped them either.
For employers, this means savings. Cheaper offices, no more mileage checks, no more stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee….you get the picture. Professional blogger
No. I really don’t “get the picture.” Most companies that have”offices,” either own or lease space for those offices in office buildings and they have generally invested a fair bit of money in their office space. While professional bloggers might not need anything more than a laptop, WiFi and a couch to professionally blog… That’s not really adequate for most jobs. If it was, our employers, who are always looking to save money, would have just had us work from home in the first place. Regarding “stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee,” if that was a significant cost of doing business, the break room would be devoid of coffee and just about everything else.
So back to my original thought, what if “when this is all over” things don’t just return to what they once were? Professional blogger
The State of Texas actually began reopening last week, with so-called non-essential businesses being allowed to reopen if they can do curbside pickup. The official reopening is this Friday, when many businesses, including restaurants, will be able to reopen with strict social distancing measures. The City of Colleyville jumped the gun by a week and gave us a sneak peak at what will happen “when this is all over”…
North Texans head to Colleyville as the city lifts restrictions on restaurants, other businesses
By Dionne Anglin Published 3 days ago Colleyville FOX 4 COLLEYVILLE, Texas – The city of Colleyville has moved forward with relaxing restrictions on businesses and churches before Tarrant County and the state of Texas do the same. “You know what, I’m just glad to be out here. All I had was queso, hot sauce, and chips,“ Hugh Hunt said. The food, however impressive, was not the biggest incentive for folks flocking to this patio spot for lunch in Colleyville. “Somebody finally got the message, we’ve got to get back to normal,” Camilla Puckett said. “We drove all the way from Rockwall, which is the other side of Dallas, to just come over here and eat in Colleyville, support what they were doing. Excited about getting to eat out again honestly,” Steve Swofford said. […] The Swoffords said that in their opinion, the economy has suffered enough from restrictions brought on by COVID-19. “We feel it’s safe right here as we do at Walmart. In fact, they’ve done a great job of spreading out,” Brenda Swofford said. “As we came in, they assured us of the safeguards they’ve put in place.“ Some are saying it more radically than others. “I have not bought into any of this stuff we’ve been going through. I don’t think we should’ve ever been shut down. I’m thankful we are finally getting to come out and do what we normally do and go to stores and live a normal life,” Hunt said. Fox4News
When Dionne Anglin reported this story on TV the other day, she was actually wearing safety glasses, but no mask… Go figure.
The world is grappling with a (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime crisis, and surely it won’t be that easy for many people to simply dive right back into the mix, sitting in a small box for hours upon hours every week. So where will that leave oil? Professional Blogger
The first question should be: “So where will that leave the people?” If their office is reopening, and they stay home, the people find themselves looking for jobs as professional bloggers.
So where will that leave oil? Professional Blogger
It depends on how many people take up professional blogging. If enough people stay home, it will leave oil in the ground. If enough people go back to work, it will cause more oil to come out of the ground. The company I work for in Houston will start staging the office back open next week. While I like blogging, when the company says they would like me back at the office, I’ll be there. I have a hunch that most other people with real jobs will also go back to work… Because very few of us are working from home by choice. Consumption of petroleum products sharply declined because government officials shut down huge swaths of our economy.
U.S. consumption of petroleum products has fallen to its lowest level in decades because of measures that limit travel and because of the general economic slowdown induced by mitigation efforts for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the decline in petroleum product demand by examining the changes in total product supplied, EIA’s proxy for consumption. As outlined in EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, published yesterday, total petroleum demand averaged 14.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in the week ending April 17, up slightly from 13.8 million b/d in the previous week—the lowest level in EIA’s weekly data series, which dates back to the early 1990s. The most recent value is 31% lower than the 2020 average from January through March 13, or before many of the travel restrictions began. US EIA
Consumption has actually rebounded ever so slightly over the past couple of weeks…
Where will oil demand and prices be next month? Six months from now? Next year? It depends on how quickly our economy is allowed to reopen. The Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short Term Energy Outlook projected that consumption will be back to normal by Q3 2020.
With prices returning to “survivable” levels by early 2021…
We’ll see what the May STEO looks like in a couple of weeks. Until then…
What’s in a name?
I have noticed quite a few comments complaining about by use of “ChiCom-19” instead of whatever the scientific name of the Kung Flu is. I don’t read the comments to other guest authors’ posts very often, so I don’t know if this is the case for Christopher Monckton’s use of “Chinese virus” or Rud Istvan’s “Wuhan #coronavirus.”
I have two three questions;
Do “Chinese virus” and “Wuhan #coronavirus” draw similar complaints? If not, is it the “Com” part of ChiCom-19 that irks concern trolls? Why are concern trolls so troubled with offending Communists?
Sergeant Muldoon clearly was not a concern troll.
Dallas County ChiCom-19 Updates
They will be back in a future post. I am gathering more data at the County, State and Federal level.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Post-Pandemic: Europe’s Choice Between Very Cheap Fossil Fuels & Expensive Renewables

Europe ’ s hopes that green power will soon beat out fossil-fuels on costs will fade unless governments implement shrewd policies to support renewable after the coronavirus crisis .
Propped up over decades by hundreds of billions of euros of government subsidies , power from wind and solar was slated to undercut coal , and even natural gas as soon as a year .
But those estimates were made before the health crisis gutted energy demand and sent oil prices below zero for the first time , according to according to a report by BloombergNEF .
In a worst-case scenario @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environmental subsidies slip down the agenda , renewable energy ’ s competitive edge over fossil fuels could be delayed to as late as 2025 , they said .
Before the pandemic , the outlook for clean power reflected expectations of ever-improving technology , falling costs , and generous government subsidies at a time when it became less profitable to burn coal .
Renewable energy ’ s move to becoming consistently cheaper than coal or gas was expected from around 2021 , BNEF forecast .
As the evidence mounts that the world is headed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effects of the coronavirus , policymakers may be tempted to back away from renewable energy subsidies , focusing instead on rebuilding their economies , BNEF analysts Dario Traum and Andreas Gandolfo said in the report .
The post Post-Pandemic : Europe ’ s Choice Between Very Cheap Fossil Fuels & Expensive Renewables appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Europe’s hopes that green power will soon beat out fossil-fuels on costs will fade unless governments implement shrewd policies to support renewable after the coronavirus crisis.
Propped up over decades by hundreds of billions of euros of government subsidies, power from wind and solar was slated to undercut coal, and even natural gas as soon as a year. But those estimates were made before the health crisis gutted energy demand and sent oil prices below zero for the first time, according to according to a report by BloombergNEF.
In a worst-case scenario where coal and gas prices plummet and environmental subsidies slip down the agenda, renewable energy’s competitive edge over fossil fuels could be delayed to as late as 2025, they said.
Before the pandemic, the outlook for clean power reflected expectations of ever-improving technology, falling costs, and generous government subsidies at a time when it became less profitable to burn coal. Renewable energy’s move to becoming consistently cheaper than coal or gas was expected from around 2021, BNEF forecast.
As the evidence mounts that the world is headed for a prolonged recession from the devastating effects of the coronavirus, policymakers may be tempted to back away from renewable energy subsidies, focusing instead on rebuilding their economies, BNEF analysts Dario Traum and Andreas Gandolfo said in the report.
Full story
The post Post-Pandemic: Europe’s Choice Between Very Cheap Fossil Fuels & Expensive Renewables appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 29, 2020 at 03:46AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--UN Chief: Only Green Companies Should Be Saved

The Germans like to ‘ talk green ’ , but reportedly plan to bail out their national airline Lufthansa to the tune of 10 billion euros .
Some other countries plan similar rescues .
But for the Brits , Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has added his soundbite of climate waffle to the recovery policy discussion .
– – – António Guterres calls for coronavirus aid to be directed at firms with green credentials – from the GWPF .
Governments should not use taxpayer cash to rescue fossil fuel companies and carbon-intensive industries , but should devote economic rescue packages for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ greenhouse gas emissions and create green jobs , the UN secretary general has urged .
“ Where taxpayers ’ money is used to rescue businesses , it must be creating green jobs and sustainable and inclusive growth , ” said António Guterres , speaking at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue , a virtual meeting of more than 30 governments on the climate crisis , which concluded on Tuesday .
“ It must not be bailing out outdated , polluting , carbon-intensive industries.
” His call was echoed by Angela Merkel , the German chancellor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was also attended by the UK and China .
“ The coronavirus shows us that international cooperation is crucial and that the wellbeing of one nation always depends on the wellbeing of others , ” she said .
“ There will be a difficult debate about the allocation of funds .
But it is important that recovery programmes always keep an eye on the climate .
We must not sideline climate , but invest in climate technologies.
” Campaigners and experts have been calling for economic rescue packages to be directed towards environmentally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to come with green strings attached .

The Germans like to ‘talk green’, but reportedly plan to bail out their national airline Lufthansa to the tune of 10 billion euros. Some other countries plan similar rescues. But for the Brits, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has added his soundbite of climate waffle to the recovery policy discussion.
– – –
António Guterres calls for coronavirus aid to be directed at firms with green credentials – from the GWPF.
Governments should not use taxpayer cash to rescue fossil fuel companies and carbon-intensive industries, but should devote economic rescue packages for the coronavirus crisis to businesses that cut greenhouse gas emissions and create green jobs, the UN secretary general has urged.
“Where taxpayers’ money is used to rescue businesses, it must be creating green jobs and sustainable and inclusive growth,” said António Guterres, speaking at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, a virtual meeting of more than 30 governments on the climate crisis, which concluded on Tuesday. “It must not be bailing out outdated, polluting, carbon-intensive industries.”
His call was echoed by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, who led the meeting, which was also attended by the UK and China. “The coronavirus shows us that international cooperation is crucial and that the wellbeing of one nation always depends on the wellbeing of others,” she said.
“There will be a difficult debate about the allocation of funds. But it is important that recovery programmes always keep an eye on the climate. We must not sideline climate, but invest in climate technologies.”
Campaigners and experts have been calling for economic rescue packages to be directed towards environmentally sustainable ends and for sectoral stimulus cash to come with green strings attached.
Full report here.
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April 29, 2020 at 03:12AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Hopeless Joke: Australia’s Wind Power Output Just Keeps On Collapsing, Time & Time Again

If you ’ re looking for a definition of ‘ hopeless joke ’ , look no further than the daily @ @ @ @ @ 6,960 MW industrial wind power fleet .
One hackneyed myth relied upon by the wind @ @ @ @ @ everywhere , really ) is that the “ wind is always blowing somewhere ” .
@ @ @ @ @ bollocks .
Spread from Far [ … ]

If you’re looking for a definition of ‘hopeless joke’, look no further than the daily contribution of Australia’s 6,960 MW industrial wind power fleet. One hackneyed myth relied upon by the wind cult in this country (everywhere, really) is that the “wind is always blowing somewhere”. Which is complete and utter bollocks. Spread from Far […]
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April 29, 2020 at 02:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--MASS INDOCTRINATION GOING ON IN USA CAMPUSES

Michael Willig , executive director of University of Connecticut ’ s Institute of the Environment , and Professor of Ecology @ @ @ @ @ announced that a national webinar , scheduled for April 7 , ” will explicitly consider @ @ @ @ @ the climate crisis.
” And the aim is to extend this radical agenda not only @ @ @ @ @ , but those in history , science , business , culture , economics , psychology @ @ @ @ @ media , journalism and the arts .
You may ask what they mean by `` @ @ @ @ @ it sounds good .

This article explains what is happening in colleges in the USA where a serious effort is being made to indoctrinate students into becoming climate change evangelists. Here is a short extract:
Michael Willig, executive director of University of Connecticut’s Institute of the Environment, and Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, has announced that a national webinar, scheduled for April 7, ”will explicitly consider environmental justice challenges posed by the climate crisis.” And the aim is to extend this radical agenda not only to students in environmental studies, but those in history, science, business, culture, economics, psychology, religion, government, media, journalism and the arts.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-29--Still Flying Blind: Can Meteorologists Help Epidemiologists with #Coronavirus?

Things are not going well these days regarding predicting the future of coronavirus in the U.S. , with the epidemiological community , including critical government agencies , not succeeding in these important areas : • They do not know the percentage of the U.S. population with active or past COVID-19 infections .
• They do not have the ability to quality control and combine virus testing information into a coherent picture of the current situation .
This is a big-data problem .
• The epidemiological simulation models used by U.S government agencies or American universities have a poor track record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of uncertainty unreliable .
But there is a group in the U.S. with deep experience and a highly successful track record in predicting complex environmental threats .
A group that is masterful in taking observations , combining them to create a good description of reality , building and testing predictive models , providing uncertainty information , and communicating the information to decision makers for critical life-threatening situations .
You know them these people : meteorologists involved in the large U.S. numerical weather prediction community .
And perhaps meteorologists can help epidemiologists and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus situation .
Now don ’ t take this blog as one uppity weather guy trying to give advice “ outside his lane.
” A published paper in the Journal of Infectious Diseases ( 2016 ) , said much of the same , with the authors noting the huge similarities in the work meteorologists and epidemiologists do and suggesting that the epidemiological community is roughly 40 years behind the numerical weather prediction enterprise .
They observed that both epidemiological and numerical weather prediction models are attempting to simulate complex systems with exponential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sensitivity to initial conditions .
So perhaps the experience of meteorologists , who spend much of their time thinking about how to improve weather forecasting , may be relevant to the current crisis .
The First Step in Prediction : Describing the Initial State of the System To predict the future you need to know what is happening now .
The better you can describe the initial starting point of forecasts , the better the forecast .
Meteorologists have spent 3/4 of a century on such work , first with surface observations and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and satellite observations .
Billions have been invested in the weather observing system , which gives us a three-dimensional observational description of atmospheric structure .
Big data .
And we have learned how to quality control and combine the data with complex data assimilation techniques , with the resulting description of the atmosphere immensely improving our predictions .
This work is completed operationally by large , permanent groups such as NOAA and NASA , with large interactions with the research community .
Contrast this to the unfortunate state of epidemiologists predicting the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little data on what is happening now .
They don ’ t know who in the population is currently infected or has been infected .
They don ’ t even know the percentage of the current population that is infected .
Without such information , there is no way epidemiologists can realistically simulate the future of the pandemic .
They are trying , of course , but the results have been disappointing .
What they do have is death information and limited testing of those that are sick , but that information is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and past infection in the community , or essential parameters such as transmission rate and mortality rates .
Obviously , the U.S. needs massive testing of the population to determine how the virus has invaded our communities and who is now immune .
The lack of such testing is terrible failure of multiple levels of government .
But just as big a failure is the lack of random sampling of the population to determine the percentages of infection and how that varies around the nation .
We do have enough testing capability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only use thousands of samples , not millions ) .
Why is the epidemiological community and our political leaders not calling for such intelligent sampling of the population ?
With random sampling we would KNOW what is going on and not act out of ignorance ( as we currently are muddling by ) .
Why is the media not baying about this ?
Quality control is another major problem faced by the epidemiological community , who deals multiple types of tests of various quality that need to be brought together to produce an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is unreliable , because of non-reports or problems with determining the primary cause of death .
Quality control is a difficult task , faced by the meteorological community as well , one that we have dealt with in our data assimilation systems ( e.g.
, observations weighted by their past quality and sophisticated consistency checks ) .
Starting with an initial description of the system one is predicting ( the 3-D atmospheric structure for meteorologists , the initial disease state of the population for epidemiologists ) , simulation models are used to predict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ full-physics models comprised of equations that predict the future evolution of the atmosphere .
Then we apply statistical corrections to make the forecasts even better .
Epidemiologists use three types of forecast models : • SEIR/SIR models is the most “ traditional ” approach , one in which the population is divided into different groups ( susceptible , exposed , infected , recovered ) , using relatively simple equations to describe how folks move from one group to another , all of which have assumptions about how the disease is transmitted , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The UK Imperial Model is an example of this approach .
• Statistical models that don ’ t really simulate what is going on , but are really curve-fitting exercises , in which theoretical curves ( often gaussians ) are used to predict the future , adjusting the curves based on the evolution of disease in the past or at other locations .
There are many assumptions in this approach and they can not properly consider the unique characteristics of the region in question .
The UW IHME model is a well-known user @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually try to simulate the community at an individual level and it is the most complex and computer intensive approach .
Although dependent on several assumptions ( such as the transmission rates between individuals ) this approach is the closest to the numerical weather prediction used by meteorologists .
The GLEAM model from Northeastern University ( and others ) is an example of this .
The trouble is that none of these epidemiological models have proven particularly skillful and produce vastly different results , something noted in some of the media , social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The UW IHME model , often quoted by local and national political leaders , has been particularly problematic ( this paper describes some of the issues ) , including the fact that its probability forecasts are highly uncalibrated .
The UK Imperial Model in mid-March predicted 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the U.S. , even with mitigation ( so far the U.S. death toll has been about 60,000 ) .
Many of the coronavirus prediction efforts have evinced unstable forecasts , with great shifts as more data becomes available or the models are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ models in predicting the coronavirus is not surprising : the lack of testing and particularly the lack of rational random sampling of the population results in no viable description of what is happening now .
The favored IHME model is only based on death rates , not on the infection state of the community .
Can you imagine if meteorologists tried to predict weather only using data around active storms ?
Very quickly , the forecasts–even of storms–would become worthless .
The same happens with coronavirus .
You can not skillfully predict the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a realistic starting point .
Furthermore , some of the models are highly simplistic and not based on the fundamental dynamics of disease spread ( like the curve-fitting IHME approach ) .
The U.S. has a permanent , large , well-funded governmental prediction enterprise for weather prediction , one that has improved dramatically over the past decades .
No such parallel effort exists in the government for epidemiological modeling .
Instead , University groups , such as UW IHME , have revved up ad-hoc efforts using research models .
The Bottom Line : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making extraordinary decisions to close down major sectors of the economy , promulgating stay-at-home orders , moving education online , and spending trillions of dollars .
And they have done so with inadequate information .
Decision makers don ’ t know how many people are infected or were infected .
They don ’ t know how many people are already immune or the percentage of infected that are asymptomatic .
They are using untested models that have not been shown to be reliable .
This is not science-based decision making , no matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and responsibility for this sorry state of affairs is found on both the Federal and state levels .
The meteorological community has a long and successful track record in an analogous enterprise , showing the importance of massive data collection to describe the environment you wish to predict , the value of sophisticated and well-tested models to make the prediction , and the necessity to maintain a dedicated governmental group that is responsible for state-of-science prediction .
Perhaps this approach should be considered by the infectious disease community .
and the experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be useful .

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Things are not going well these days regarding predicting the future of coronavirus in the U.S., with the epidemiological community, including critical government agencies, not succeeding in these important areas:
They do not know the percentage of the U.S. population with active or past COVID-19 infections.
They do not have the ability to quality control and combine virus testing information into a coherent picture of the current situation. This is a big-data problem.
The epidemiological simulation models used by U.S government agencies or American universities have a poor track record in their predictions, with their quantification of uncertainty unreliable.
But there is a group in the U.S. with deep experience and a highly successful track record in predicting complex environmental threats. A group that is masterful in taking observations, combining them to create a good description of reality, building and testing predictive models, providing uncertainty information, and communicating the information to decision makers for critical life-threatening situations.
You know them these people: meteorologists involved in the large U.S. numerical weather prediction community. And perhaps meteorologists can help epidemiologists and the U.S. government to get a handle on the coronavirus situation.
Now don’t take this blog as one uppity weather guy trying to give advice “outside his lane.” A published paper in the Journal of Infectious Diseases (2016), said much of the same, with the authors noting the huge similarities in the work meteorologists and epidemiologists do and suggesting that the epidemiological community is roughly 40 years behind the numerical weather prediction enterprise. They observed that both epidemiological and numerical weather prediction models are attempting to simulate complex systems with exponential error growth, and thus have great sensitivity to initial conditions.
So perhaps the experience of meteorologists, who spend much of their time thinking about how to improve weather forecasting, may be relevant to the current crisis.
The First Step in Prediction: Describing the Initial State of the System
To predict the future you need to know what is happening now. The better you can describe the initial starting point of forecasts, the better the forecast.
Meteorologists have spent 3/4 of a century on such work, first with surface observations and balloon-launched radiosondes, and later with radars and satellite observations. Billions have been invested in the weather observing system, which gives us a three-dimensional observational description of atmospheric structure. Big data. And we have learned how to quality control and combine the data with complex data assimilation techniques, with the resulting description of the atmosphere immensely improving our predictions. This work is completed operationally by large, permanent groups such as NOAA and NASA, with large interactions with the research community.
Contrast this to the unfortunate state of epidemiologists predicting the future of the coronavirus.
They have very little data on what is happening now. They don’t know who in the population is currently infected or has been infected. They don’t even know the percentage of the current population that is infected. Without such information, there is no way epidemiologists can realistically simulate the future of the pandemic. They are trying, of course, but the results have been disappointing.
What they do have is death information and limited testing of those that are sick, but that information is insufficient to determine the state of current and past infection in the community, or essential parameters such as transmission rate and mortality rates.
Obviously, the U.S. needs massive testing of the population to determine how the virus has invaded our communities and who is now immune. The lack of such testing is terrible failure of multiple levels of government.
But just as big a failure is the lack of random sampling of the population to determine the percentages of infection and how that varies around the nation.
We do have enough testing capability to do this (remember national political polls only use thousands of samples, not millions). Why is the epidemiological community and our political leaders not calling for such intelligent sampling of the population? With random sampling we would KNOW what is going on and not act out of ignorance (as we currently are muddling by). Why is the media not baying about this?
Quality control is another major problem faced by the epidemiological community, who deals multiple types of tests of various quality that need to be brought together to produce an integrated picture of reality. Death information is unreliable, because of non-reports or problems with determining the primary cause of death. Quality control is a difficult task, faced by the meteorological community as well, one that we have dealt with in our data assimilation systems (e.g., observations weighted by their past quality and sophisticated consistency checks).
Simulation Models
Starting with an initial description of the system one is predicting (the 3-D atmospheric structure for meteorologists, the initial disease state of the population for epidemiologists), simulation models are used to predict the future.
Meteorologists use complex, full-physics models comprised of equations that predict the future evolution of the atmosphere. Then we apply statistical corrections to make the forecasts even better.
Epidemiologists use three types of forecast models:
SEIR/SIR models is the most “traditional” approach, one in which the population is divided into different groups (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered), using relatively simple equations to describe how folks move from one group to another, all of which have assumptions about how the disease is transmitted, the effects of social interactions and more. The UK Imperial Model is an example of this approach.
is the most “traditional” approach, one in which the population is divided into different groups (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered), using relatively simple equations to describe how folks move from one group to another, all of which have assumptions about how the disease is transmitted, the effects of social interactions and more. The UK Imperial Model is an example of this approach. Statistical models that don’t really simulate what is going on, but are really curve-fitting exercises, in which theoretical curves (often gaussians) are used to predict the future, adjusting the curves based on the evolution of disease in the past or at other locations. There are many assumptions in this approach and they cannot properly consider the unique characteristics of the region in question. The UW IHME model is a well-known user of this approach.
that don’t really simulate what is going on, but are really curve-fitting exercises, in which theoretical curves (often gaussians) are used to predict the future, adjusting the curves based on the evolution of disease in the past or at other locations. There are many assumptions in this approach and they cannot properly consider the unique characteristics of the region in question. The UW IHME model is a well-known user of this approach. Agent-based modeling actually try to simulate the community at an individual level and it is the most complex and computer intensive approach. Although dependent on several assumptions (such as the transmission rates between individuals) this approach is the closest to the numerical weather prediction used by meteorologists. The GLEAM model from Northeastern University (and others) is an example of this.
The trouble is that none of these epidemiological models have proven particularly skillful and produce vastly different results, something noted in some of the media, social media, and several new research papers. The UW IHME model, often quoted by local and national political leaders, has been particularly problematic (this paper describes some of the issues), including the fact that its probability forecasts are highly uncalibrated. The UK Imperial Model in mid-March predicted 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the U.S., even with mitigation (so far the U.S. death toll has been about 60,000). Many of the coronavirus prediction efforts have evinced unstable forecasts, with great shifts as more data becomes available or the models are enhanced.
The poor performance of these models in predicting the coronavirus is not surprising: the lack of testing and particularly the lack of rational random sampling of the population results in no viable description of what is happening now. The favored IHME model is only based on death rates, not on the infection state of the community. Can you imagine if meteorologists tried to predict weather only using data around active storms? Very quickly, the forecasts–even of storms–would become worthless. The same happens with coronavirus.
You cannot skillfully predict the future if you don’t have a realistic starting point. Furthermore, some of the models are highly simplistic and not based on the fundamental dynamics of disease spread (like the curve-fitting IHME approach).
The U.S. has a permanent, large, well-funded governmental prediction enterprise for weather prediction, one that has improved dramatically over the past decades. No such parallel effort exists in the government for epidemiological modeling. Instead, University groups, such as UW IHME, have revved up ad-hoc efforts using research models.
The Bottom Line:
Our government and political leadership have been making extraordinary decisions to close down major sectors of the economy, promulgating stay-at-home orders, moving education online, and spending trillions of dollars.
And they have done so with inadequate information. Decision makers don’t know how many people are infected or were infected. They don’t know how many people are already immune or the percentage of infected that are asymptomatic. They are using untested models that have not been shown to be reliable. This is not science-based decision making, no matter how often this term has been used, and responsibility for this sorry state of affairs is found on both the Federal and state levels.
The meteorological community has a long and successful track record in an analogous enterprise, showing the importance of massive data collection to describe the environment you wish to predict, the value of sophisticated and well-tested models to make the prediction, and the necessity to maintain a dedicated governmental group that is responsible for state-of-science prediction.
Perhaps this approach should be considered by the infectious disease community. and the experience of the numerical weather prediction community might be useful.