iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Comet ATLAS continues to brighten, now with an impressive tail, and it could put on quite a dazzling

Comet ATLAS continues to brighten, now with an impressive tail, and it could put on quite a dazzling show next month

“ According to my observations , the tail of Comet ATLAS is 1.2 degrees long , ” reports Gerald Rhemann who recorded this image on Friday , March 27th from his backyard observatory in Eichgraben , Lower Austria ( courtesy spaceweather.com ) About a month ago , Comet ATLAS was very difficult to find , but it is now as bright as an 8th magnitude star and has generated quite an impressive tail .
This brightness is hundreds of times brighter than astronomers predicted when it discovered the comet several months ago .
While it is still too dim to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is becoming an increasingly easy target for backyard telescopes .
The comet is expected to become much brighter by the time it sweeps by the sun closer than Mercury during late May , it could even rival Venus in the evening sky .
The orbit of Comet ATLAS and position as of Thursday , April 2nd ; courtesy NASA , theskylive.com Comet ATLAS was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System ( ATLAS ) and has been given the nickname of ATLAS , but its official name is C/2019 Y4 .
ATLAS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being developed by the University of Hawaii and is funded by NASA .
It consists of two telescopes , 100 miles apart , which automatically scan the whole sky several times every night looking for moving objects .
ATLAS will provide one day ’ s warning for a 30-kiloton “ town killer , ” a week for a 5-megaton “ city killer , ” and three weeks for a 100-megaton “ county killer ” .
So far , ATLAS has discovered 427 near-earth asteroids and as many as 37 comets included the one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Location of the ATLAS telescopes ; courtesy The ATLAS project , NASA The comet ’ s last Earth fly-by was sometime around 4000 BC when it was witnessed by early ancient Egyptian farmers as well as Neolithic tribes in Ireland , northern Scotland and across Scandinavia , but this most recent pass was first spotted on December 28 , 2019 by ATLAS .
The comet is hundreds of times brighter than originally predicted at the time of discovery and there is increasing hope that it will become quite bright when it approaches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the month of May .
Brightness estimates for Comet ATLAS range from magnitude +1 to -10 which is somewhere between a 1st magnitude star and the waxing crescent moon .
The image ( top ) of Comet ATLAS was taken from a backyard observatory ( 12-inch telescope ) in Austria on Friday , March 27th and shows quite an impressive tail .
In fact , an estimate of the tails length of 1.2 degrees is roughly equivalent to 3.3 million kilometers or more than twice as wide as the sun .
Comet tails @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the sun as the comet gets closer .
By late May , Comet ATLAS will be only about 0.25 AU away from the sun and getting closer than Mercury ( one AU ( astronomical unit ) is equivalent to the distance between the Earth and the Sun ) .
Comet ATLAS is known as a hyperbolic comet and is currently in the constellation Ursa Major ( the Big Dipper ) in the northern sky orbiting Mars .
Stay tuned…predictions of comet brightness have certainly had mixed results in recent history , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can put on quite a dazzling show later next month .
By the end of April , Comet ATLAS will be in the constellation of Camelopardalis and best seen just after sunset , in the western twilight sky .
After May , ATLAS will continue its journey towards the center of our solar system , getting closer to the Sun which will make it harder to see .
It is expected to come back around in June when it may be visible again on its way out of sight once more .

Guest post by Paul Dorian,
“According to my observations, the tail of Comet ATLAS is 1.2 degrees long,” reports Gerald Rhemann who recorded this image on Friday, March 27th from his backyard observatory in Eichgraben, Lower Austria (courtesy spaceweather.com)
Overview
About a month ago, Comet ATLAS was very difficult to find, but it is now as bright as an 8th magnitude star and has generated quite an impressive tail. This brightness is hundreds of times brighter than astronomers predicted when it discovered the comet several months ago. While it is still too dim to see with the unaided eye, it is becoming an increasingly easy target for backyard telescopes. The comet is expected to become much brighter by the time it sweeps by the sun closer than Mercury during late May, it could even rival Venus in the evening sky.
The orbit of Comet ATLAS and position as of Thursday, April 2nd; courtesy NASA, theskylive.com
Discussion
Comet ATLAS was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) and has been given the nickname of ATLAS, but its official name is C/2019 Y4. ATLAS is an asteroid impact early warning system being developed by the University of Hawaii and is funded by NASA. It consists of two telescopes, 100 miles apart, which automatically scan the whole sky several times every night looking for moving objects. ATLAS will provide one day’s warning for a 30-kiloton “town killer,” a week for a 5-megaton “city killer,” and three weeks for a 100-megaton “county killer”. So far, ATLAS has discovered 427 near-earth asteroids and as many as 37 comets included the one now being referred to as Comet ATLAS.
Location of the ATLAS telescopes; courtesy The ATLAS project, NASA
The comet’s last Earth fly-by was sometime around 4000 BC when it was witnessed by early ancient Egyptian farmers as well as Neolithic tribes in Ireland, northern Scotland and across Scandinavia, but this most recent pass was first spotted on December 28, 2019 by ATLAS. The comet is hundreds of times brighter than originally predicted at the time of discovery and there is increasing hope that it will become quite bright when it approaches the sun during the latter part of the month of May. Brightness estimates for Comet ATLAS range from magnitude +1 to -10 which is somewhere between a 1st magnitude star and the waxing crescent moon.
The image (top) of Comet ATLAS was taken from a backyard observatory (12-inch telescope) in Austria on Friday, March 27th and shows quite an impressive tail. In fact, an estimate of the tails length of 1.2 degrees is roughly equivalent to 3.3 million kilometers or more than twice as wide as the sun. Comet tails are dust and gas that get illuminated by the sun as the comet gets closer. By late May, Comet ATLAS will be only about 0.25 AU away from the sun and getting closer than Mercury (one AU (astronomical unit) is equivalent to the distance between the Earth and the Sun). Comet ATLAS is known as a hyperbolic comet and is currently in the constellation Ursa Major (the Big Dipper) in the northern sky orbiting Mars.
Stay tuned…predictions of comet brightness have certainly had mixed results in recent history, but there is increasing hope that this one can put on quite a dazzling show later next month. By the end of April, Comet ATLAS will be in the constellation of Camelopardalis and best seen just after sunset, in the western twilight sky. After May, ATLAS will continue its journey towards the center of our solar system, getting closer to the Sun which will make it harder to see. It is expected to come back around in June when it may be visible again on its way out of sight once more.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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April 2, 2020 at 11:55PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Covid-19 and Climate Change: Asia’s Policy Choices in the Age of ‘Crisis’

The Asian continent spans a vast geographical area .
The novel coronavirus emerged in the eastern part – Wuhan , China – and quickly spread to other countries within a couple of months after first reported cases in December .
In Asia ’ s western reaches lie the Maldives , long the posterchild of the international climate change establishment which claims , among other things , that the low-lying tourist islands will be submerged as sea-levels rapidly rise with global warming .
Asian governments now face stark trade-offs , as the needs of an immediate , potentially catastrophic health crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compete with the policy requirements of what the climate industrial complex deems as an equally threatening existential threat of “ climate crisis ” .
As Asian policymakers grapple with immediate measures to handle the epidemic with unprecedented lockdowns of entire cities , provinces or even nationwide , they are no doubt keenly observing how their counterparts in the US and Europe are meeting this common challenge .
Few if any of the developments in the West will inspire confidence .
The US Congress passed a $ 2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package which was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But this was only after a week of partisan delay caused by the Democrats ’ insistence on provisions that had little to do with handling the pandemic .
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi failed in her bid to incorporate climate change provisions in the stimulus bill .
In an expansive wish list , the bill included new tax credits for solar and wind energy and emissions standards for airlines by 2025 as part of the party ’ s Green New Deal ambitions .
To be fair , Ms Pelosi is not alone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let a good crisis go to waste ” .
Across the pond , European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doubled down on the EU ’ s climate commitment with a €1 trillion Green Deal .
She presented the European Climate Law on March 4th , when the Wuhan virus was fast metastasizing into a global pandemic .
The law , which would legally bind EU members to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 , was presented by Ms. von Leyen while flanked by none other than teenage Green icon Greta Thunberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Frans Timmermans , leading the Commission ’ s work on the European Green Deal , said that the focus on the coronavirus pandemic “ showed the need for climate laws ” .
In the revolutionary language of the EC ’ s Green Deal , all policy matters including coronavirus-related public health and economic stimulus legislation would have to be in line with net zero emissions by mid-century .
International bureaucrats have echoed these calls for stiffening the resolve to pursue climate legislation in the face of the mounting Covid-19 crisis .
Fatih @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Agency and a prominent climate policy advocate , advised world leaders and heads of financial institutions to exploit the “ historic opportunity ” presented by the pandemic and “ use the current situation to step up our ambition to tackle climate change.
” Christiana Figueres , former head of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and architect of the Paris Agreement , tweeted “ Well put @ IEABirol…We have a massive crisis = opportunity on our hands .
We can not afford to waste it .
Recovery must be green.
” Not surprisingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finance ever-greater ambitions in emission reductions while the coronavirus pandemic imposes immediate hardships on afflicted countries have led to strong objections .
One EU diplomat put it baldly : “ We simply don ’ t have the money to do everything.
” Another said that “ Maybe it will be less on Green Deal but more on trying to restart the economies…We can not just continue with the plans and programmes we had so far .
They were developed for a world without coronavirus.
” Poland ’ s government , never a fan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , stated that the country — heavily dependent on coal-fired power generation — would not be able to achieve the EU ’ s climate change goals because of the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on its economy .
Holland , a richer European economy at the forefront of the EU ’ s climate ambitions , cited the toll of the virus pandemic in announcing that no new measures will be taken to reduce emissions .
Bavaria ’ s Chief Minister called on the federal government to provide relief from the deepening pandemic crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subsidies which have made electricity rates in Germany among the world ’ s highest .
For policymakers around the world , the Covid-19 pandemic has provided a reality check , a painful reminder of what a real existential crisis looks and feels like .
Inevitably , the global focus on the Covid-19 pandemic has come at the expense of attention paid to hypothetical model-based notions of a future “ climate emergency ” .
Perhaps the most consequential price to be paid on the trade-off between the two policy objectives will be in Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continent .
Japan , the world ’ s third largest economy and one of its richest , is the first major signatory of the Paris Agreement to submit updated plans on cutting emissions in preparation for the now-postponed November 2020 Glasgow meeting .
It was widely criticised by climate campaigners for failing to intensify emission targets as called for by the ‘ spirit ’ of the Paris Agreement .
Many an Asian policymaker will see Japan ’ s refusal to submit tighter emissions reduction targets in view of the Covid-19 pandemic as pragmatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s second largest economy and its biggest emitter of greenhouse gases , plans a fiscal stimulus worth hundreds of billions of dollars to restore economic growth .
Given the country ’ s economic structure as the ‘ workshop of the world ’ , this implies the resuscitation of carbon-intensive activity , ranging from coal to oil , natural gas , petrochemicals , plastics , and refineries — and reviving jobs for the multitudes who work in automobiles , aviation , shipping , utilities , construction , agriculture , manufacturing and utilities .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ plans to postpone automobile emission standards and “ save the industry ” post-Covid-19 .
In the emerging countries of Asia , among the impoverished masses without access to reliable and affordable electricity systems needed to power modern medical care , the lethality of the Covid-19 pandemic can only be imagined at this stage .
Vast swaths of Asia lack clean water , sanitation systems , and refrigeration for vaccines , let alone respirators and personal protective equipment for front line medical workers .
The strictures against fossil fuels , as part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ egregious to the extreme when the real and immediate challenge of coping with Covid-19 faces each and every Asian today .

Guest repost from Forbes by Tilak Doshi
The Asian continent spans a vast geographical area. The novel coronavirus emerged in the eastern part – Wuhan, China – and quickly spread to other countries within a couple of months after first reported cases in December. In Asia’s western reaches lie the Maldives, long the posterchild of the international climate change establishment which claims, among other things, that the low-lying tourist islands will be submerged as sea-levels rapidly rise with global warming.
Asian governments now face stark trade-offs, as the needs of an immediate, potentially catastrophic health crisis (and its devastating economic fallout) compete with the policy requirements of what the climate industrial complex deems as an equally threatening existential threat of “climate crisis”. As Asian policymakers grapple with immediate measures to handle the epidemic with unprecedented lockdowns of entire cities, provinces or even nationwide, they are no doubt keenly observing how their counterparts in the US and Europe are meeting this common challenge. Few if any of the developments in the West will inspire confidence.
The US Congress passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package which was signed by President Trump last Friday. But this was only after a week of partisan delay caused by the Democrats’ insistence on provisions that had little to do with handling the pandemic. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi failed in her bid to incorporate climate change provisions in the stimulus bill. In an expansive wish list, the bill included new tax credits for solar and wind energy and emissions standards for airlines by 2025 as part of the party’s Green New Deal ambitions.
To be fair, Ms Pelosi is not alone in the cynical attempt to “never let a good crisis go to waste”. Across the pond, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doubled down on the EU’s climate commitment with a €1 trillion Green Deal. She presented the European Climate Law on March 4th, when the Wuhan virus was fast metastasizing into a global pandemic. The law, which would legally bind EU members to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, was presented by Ms. von Leyen while flanked by none other than teenage Green icon Greta Thunberg. In an odd twist of logic, Frans Timmermans, leading the Commission’s work on the European Green Deal, said that the focus on the coronavirus pandemic “showed the need for climate laws”. In the revolutionary language of the EC’s Green Deal, all policy matters including coronavirus-related public health and economic stimulus legislation would have to be in line with net zero emissions by mid-century.
International bureaucrats have echoed these calls for stiffening the resolve to pursue climate legislation in the face of the mounting Covid-19 crisis. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency and a prominent climate policy advocate, advised world leaders and heads of financial institutions to exploit the “historic opportunity” presented by the pandemic and “use the current situation to step up our ambition to tackle climate change.” Christiana Figueres, former head of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and architect of the Paris Agreement, tweeted “Well put @IEABirol…We have a massive crisis = opportunity on our hands. We cannot afford to waste it. Recovery must be green.”
Not surprisingly, these incessant calls for governments to finance ever-greater ambitions in emission reductions while the coronavirus pandemic imposes immediate hardships on afflicted countries have led to strong objections. One EU diplomat put it baldly: “We simply don’t have the money to do everything.” Another said that “Maybe it will be less on Green Deal but more on trying to restart the economies…We cannot just continue with the plans and programmes we had so far. They were developed for a world without coronavirus.”
Poland’s government, never a fan of the EU’s Green ambitions, stated that the country — heavily dependent on coal-fired power generation — would not be able to achieve the EU’s climate change goals because of the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on its economy. Holland, a richer European economy at the forefront of the EU’s climate ambitions, cited the toll of the virus pandemic in announcing that no new measures will be taken to reduce emissions. Bavaria’s Chief Minister called on the federal government to provide relief from the deepening pandemic crisis by suspending carbon taxes and renewable energy subsidies which have made electricity rates in Germany among the world’s highest.
For policymakers around the world, the Covid-19 pandemic has provided a reality check, a painful reminder of what a real existential crisis looks and feels like. Inevitably, the global focus on the Covid-19 pandemic has come at the expense of attention paid to hypothetical model-based notions of a future “climate emergency”. Perhaps the most consequential price to be paid on the trade-off between the two policy objectives will be in Asia, the world’s most populous continent.
Japan, the world’s third largest economy and one of its richest, is the first major signatory of the Paris Agreement to submit updated plans on cutting emissions in preparation for the now-postponed November 2020 Glasgow meeting. It was widely criticised by climate campaigners for failing to intensify emission targets as called for by the ‘spirit’ of the Paris Agreement. Many an Asian policymaker will see Japan’s refusal to submit tighter emissions reduction targets in view of the Covid-19 pandemic as pragmatic and necessary.
China, the world’s second largest economy and its biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, plans a fiscal stimulus worth hundreds of billions of dollars to restore economic growth. Given the country’s economic structure as the ‘workshop of the world’, this implies the resuscitation of carbon-intensive activity, ranging from coal to oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, plastics, and refineries — and reviving jobs for the multitudes who work in automobiles, aviation, shipping, utilities, construction, agriculture, manufacturing and utilities. Hence it is no surprise that China plans to postpone automobile emission standards and “save the industry” post-Covid-19.
In the emerging countries of Asia, among the impoverished masses without access to reliable and affordable electricity systems needed to power modern medical care, the lethality of the Covid-19 pandemic can only be imagined at this stage. Vast swaths of Asia lack clean water, sanitation systems, and refrigeration for vaccines, let alone respirators and personal protective equipment for front line medical workers. The strictures against fossil fuels, as part of the liturgy of climate change belief, is egregious to the extreme when the real and immediate challenge of coping with Covid-19 faces each and every Asian today.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US , but also across N Europe , at CFACT : I want you to read this article : 1 ) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen 2 ) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2 , which is only .041 % of the atmosphere .
Pointedly , of which man is only responsible for 25 % and the US only 15 % of that total .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacking here , except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you , should raise questions of any objective person .
Basically the rules of the game are , if its warm like this winter , its climate change , if it is cold , its climate change .
It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite , means you get credit .
I won ’ t copy the whole article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it can be seen here .
However these are the main points Joe raises , starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour : Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas when it comes to the planetary weather and climate .
Meteorologist look at “ saturation mixing ratios ” which show a correlation of water vapor to temperature .
Basically the colder and drier the air mass , the more the introduction of water vapor will lead higher temperatures , there is no place like the arctic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The cyclically warmed oceans have put more water vapor ( and CO2 ) into the air .
When Super El Niño ’ s go off , the immense amounts dispersed lead to a step up of the temperature .
The colder regions leading the way as will be opined on below .
Now look at the table below .
Notice how small the correlated increase of WV is between -40 and -30 ( less than .1gram/kg ) .
The introduction of those slight amounts create clouds , cause lower pressure and more turbulent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase temperatures where its very cold .
( Also in the high levels of the atmosphere , which is why the “ trapping hot spot theory of warming in the upper levels over the tropics has gone the opposite way .
ITS DRYING OUT NOT GETTING MORE MOIST ) .
While its true this creates a distortion in the global temperature pattern , this is inherent in the system anyway .
Notice at higher temperatures it takes much more water vapor to correlate to the temperature increase .
So look at the warming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the very cold time of the year which skews the overall temp upward .
Missing from this are the actual arctic temps which will still be frigid but not as low as they were in the winters 30 years ago .
Still , no one is going to survive an arctic winter unless as prepared as they would have been 30 years ago .
BUT THERE IS NO SUMMER WARMING meaning the amount of water vapor from the cyclically warmed oceans has little effect where it is warmer , much more when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that no such correlation chart exists for CO2 and temps should make one understand the minute effect it has on temperature anyway .
This goes to the heart of recent global warming trends , so to repeat : 1 ) We are seeing a double step up in global temperatures , as a direct result of the two super El Ninos , in 1998 and 2016/16 .
2 ) El Ninos affect global temperatures by putting massive amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere 3 ) This water vapour has a disproportionate effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one of the reasons why an average global temperature is a meaningless concept .
Joe then proceeds to explain how sea surface temperatures in both the Pacific and Atlantic have been the drivers for the the mild US winter in the east this year .
1 ) The warm water was near and west of the dateline .
This is huge as I will explain later .
2 ) The water was cooler near and off the west coast than further west .
3 ) Warm water off the east coast , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cold attacking , it was free to overtake the pattern at will .
That warm water in area 1 favors enhanced thunderstorms and the release of heat in the upper levels in a way that changes the pattern in the Pacific .
If we look at the Madden Julian Oscillation , we see that favors a phase 6 .
Notice where the heavy precipitation is in the winter in phase 6 Look at this winter almost right on top of it .
What does a mean phase 6 give us for the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , what phase 6 gives us .
Now if this is CO2 , why doesn ’ t it simply occur every winter ?
Because its not , its large scale natural forcing .
Minute increases in CO2 are not going to push around the oceans , whose cycles are decades and in some cases even longer in the making .
But wait there is more .
If we take the last 4 very warm winters 98-99 , 2001-2002,2011-2012,2019-2020 and looked at the upper air pattern , we notice a powerfully positive arctic oscillation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe cold over the pole ) , we see a positive eastern Pacific oscillation .
Cold in Alaska , ridging north of Hawaii .
This in turn forces ridging over the eastern US which is then fed by very warm water as it prevents cold intrusions , the ridging over Europe where it was quite warm and in much of Russia .
What did we see this year ?
Joe finishes by mapping out how small variations in the pattern of SSTs led to the snowmageddon in 2010 .
It is a reminder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our weather .
As Joe puts it : Minute increases in CO2 are not going to push around the oceans , whose cycles are decades and in some cases even longer in the making .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT:
I want you to read this article:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/warm-winter-sets-records-across-america/2916581001/
Two points:
1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen
2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for 25% and the US only 15% of that total.
I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.
Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.
I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:
Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas when it comes to the planetary weather and climate. Meteorologist look at “saturation mixing ratios” which show a correlation of water vapor to temperature. Basically the colder and drier the air mass, the more the introduction of water vapor will lead higher temperatures, there is no place like the arctic to prove this is the case. The cyclically warmed oceans have put more water vapor (and CO2) into the air. When Super El Niño’s go off, the immense amounts dispersed lead to a step up of the temperature. The colder regions leading the way as will be opined on below.
Now look at the table below. Notice how small the correlated increase of WV is between -40 and -30 ( less than .1gram/kg). The introduction of those slight amounts create clouds, cause lower pressure and more turbulent mixing. All of which act to increase temperatures where its very cold. (Also in the high levels of the atmosphere, which is why the “trapping hot spot theory of warming in the upper levels over the tropics has gone the opposite way. ITS DRYING OUT NOT GETTING MORE MOIST). While its true this creates a distortion in the global temperature pattern, this is inherent in the system anyway. Notice at higher temperatures it takes much more water vapor to correlate to the temperature increase.
So look at the warming in the arctic:
The warming is in the very cold time of the year which skews the overall temp upward. Missing from this are the actual arctic temps which will still be frigid but not as low as they were in the winters 30 years ago. Still, no one is going to survive an arctic winter unless as prepared as they would have been 30 years ago. BUT THERE IS NO SUMMER WARMING meaning the amount of water vapor from the cyclically warmed oceans has little effect where it is warmer, much more when it’s cold. The fact that no such correlation chart exists for CO2 and temps should make one understand the minute effect it has on temperature anyway.
This goes to the heart of recent global warming trends, so to repeat:
1) We are seeing a double step up in global temperatures, as a direct result of the two super El Ninos, in 1998 and 2016/16.
2) El Ninos affect global temperatures by putting massive amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere
3) This water vapour has a disproportionate effect in dry regions, notable the Arctic, one of the reasons why an average global temperature is a meaningless concept.
Joe then proceeds to explain how sea surface temperatures in both the Pacific and Atlantic have been the drivers for the the mild US winter in the east this year.
1) The warm water was near and west of the dateline. This is huge as I will explain later. 2) The water was cooler near and off the west coast than further west. 3) Warm water off the east coast, which we knew, but with no cold attacking, it was free to overtake the pattern at will.
That warm water in area 1 favors enhanced thunderstorms and the release of heat in the upper levels in a way that changes the pattern in the Pacific. If we look at the Madden Julian Oscillation, we see that favors a phase 6. Notice where the heavy precipitation is in the winter in phase 6
Look at this winter almost right on top of it.
What does a mean phase 6 give us for the US temperature-wise?
Guess what happened this winter, what phase 6 gives us. Now if this is CO2, why doesn’t it simply occur every winter? Because its not, its large scale natural forcing. Minute increases in CO2 are not going to push around the oceans, whose cycles are decades and in some cases even longer in the making.
But wait there is more. If we take the last 4 very warm winters 98-99, 2001-2002,2011-2012,2019-2020
and looked at the upper air pattern, we notice a powerfully positive arctic oscillation (for the sake of ease, severe cold over the pole),
we see a positive eastern Pacific oscillation. Cold in Alaska, ridging north of Hawaii. This in turn forces ridging over the eastern US which is then fed by very warm water as it prevents cold intrusions, the ridging over Europe where it was quite warm and in much of Russia. What did we see this year?
Joe finishes by mapping out how small variations in the pattern of SSTs led to the snowmageddon in 2010.
It is a reminder that it is the oceans which drive our weather. As Joe puts it:
Minute increases in CO2 are not going to push around the oceans, whose cycles are decades and in some cases even longer in the making.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
https://ift.tt/2UJgzE9
April 3, 2020 at 03:57PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--The Contradictions in Quebec Climate Policy

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2020 .
Lyman ’ s bio can be read here .
Canada ’ s provinces @ @ @ @ @ to climate policy so far , but none so stringent as Quebec .
… Continue @

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2020. Lyman’s bio can be read here.
Canada’s provinces have taken broadly similar approaches to climate policy so far, but none so stringent as Quebec. … Continue reading
via Friends of Science Calgary
https://ift.tt/2xL7Xnq
April 3, 2020 at 03:38PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Meet Bering and Okhotsk Seas

Meet Bering and Okhotsk Seas

Now that Arctic ice peak has passed , the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk take center stage , providing most of the open water reducing ice extents .
The animation above shows in the last 3 weeks Bering on the right lost half of its ice , down from 820k km2 to 450k km2 yesterday .
Meanwhile Okhotsk on the left declined from 1080k km2 to 650k km2 .
Those losses make up entirely the Arctic deficit to average at this time .
NASA describes Okhotsk as a Sea and Ice Factory .
Excerpts in italics with my bolds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oceanographers call a marginal sea : a region of a larger ocean basin that is partly enclosed by islands and peninsulas hugging a continental coast .
With the Kamchatka Peninsula , the Kuril Islands , and Sakhalin Island partly sheltering the sea from the Pacific Ocean , and with prevailing , frigid northwesterly winds blowing out from Siberia , the sea is a winter ice factory and a year-round cloud factory .
The region is the lowest latitude ( 45 degrees at the southern end ) where sea ice regularly forms .
Ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each winter depending on the weather .
Ice often persists for nearly six months , typically from October to March .
Aside from the cold winds from the Russian interior , the prodigious flow of fresh water from the Amur River freshens the sea , making the surface less saline and more likely to freeze than other seas and bays .
Map of the Sea of Okhotsk with bottom topography .
The 200- and 3000-m isobars are indicated by thin and thick solid lines , respectively .
A box denotes the enlarged portion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea-ice area ( ice concentration ⩾30 % ) in February averaged for 2003–11 ; blue shading indicates open ocean area .
Ice concentration from AMSR-E is used .
Color shadings indicate cumulative ice production in coastal polynyas during winter ( December–March ) averaged from the 2002/03 to 2009/10 seasons ( modified from Nihashi and others , 2012 , 2017 ) .
The amount is indicated by the bar scale .
Source : Cambridge Core The animation above shows Bering Sea ice extents at April 2 from 2007 to 2020 .
The large fluctuation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -13 and almost none in 2018 , other years in between .
Given the alarmist bias , it ’ s no surprise those two years are picked for comparison : Taking a boat trip from Hokkaido Island to see Okhotsk drift ice is a big tourist attraction , as seen in the short video below .
Al Gore had them worried back then , but not now .

Now that Arctic ice peak has passed, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk take center stage, providing most of the open water reducing ice extents. The animation above shows in the last 3 weeks Bering on the right lost half of its ice, down from 820k km2 to 450k km2 yesterday. Meanwhile Okhotsk on the left declined from 1080k km2 to 650k km2. Those losses make up entirely the Arctic deficit to average at this time.
Background on Okhotsk Sea
NASA describes Okhotsk as a Sea and Ice Factory. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.
The Sea of Okhotsk is what oceanographers call a marginal sea: a region of a larger ocean basin that is partly enclosed by islands and peninsulas hugging a continental coast. With the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, and Sakhalin Island partly sheltering the sea from the Pacific Ocean, and with prevailing, frigid northwesterly winds blowing out from Siberia, the sea is a winter ice factory and a year-round cloud factory.
The region is the lowest latitude (45 degrees at the southern end) where sea ice regularly forms. Ice cover varies from 50 to 90 percent each winter depending on the weather. Ice often persists for nearly six months, typically from October to March. Aside from the cold winds from the Russian interior, the prodigious flow of fresh water from the Amur River freshens the sea, making the surface less saline and more likely to freeze than other seas and bays.
Map of the Sea of Okhotsk with bottom topography. The 200- and 3000-m isobars are indicated by thin and thick solid lines, respectively. A box denotes the enlarged portion in Figure 5. White shading indicates sea-ice area (ice concentration ⩾30%) in February averaged for 2003–11; blue shading indicates open ocean area. Ice concentration from AMSR-E is used. Color shadings indicate cumulative ice production in coastal polynyas during winter (December–March) averaged from the 2002/03 to 2009/10 seasons (modified from Nihashi and others, 2012, 2017). The amount is indicated by the bar scale. Source: Cambridge Core
Bering Sea Ice is Highly Variable
The animation above shows Bering Sea ice extents at April 2 from 2007 to 2020. The large fluctuation is evident, much ice in 2012 -13 and almost none in 2018, other years in between. Given the alarmist bias, it’s no surprise those two years are picked for comparison:
Taking a boat trip from Hokkaido Island to see Okhotsk drift ice is a big tourist attraction, as seen in the short video below. Al Gore had them worried back then, but not now.
via Science Matters
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April 3, 2020 at 12:39PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--The Metonic cycle ‘error’ – or not?

The Metonic cycle ‘error’ – or not?

Metonic cycle , in chronology , a period of 19 years in which there are 235 lunations , or synodic months , after which the Moon ’ s phases recur on the same days of the solar year , or year of the seasons .
The cycle was discovered by Meton ( fl .
432 bc ) , an Athenian astronomer .
Calendar Wiki ’ s opening paragraphs on the Metonic cycle say : The Metonic cycle or Enneadecaeteris in astronomy and calendar studies is a particular approximate common multiple of the year ( specifically , the seasonal i.e .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Nineteen tropical years differ from 235 synodic months by about 2 hours .
The Metonic cycle ’ s error is one full day every 219 years , or 12.4 parts per million .
It is helpful to recognize that this is an approximation of reality .
The period of the Moon ’ s orbit around the Earth and the Earth ’ s orbit around the Sun ( ignoring also exact definition of the year ) are independent and have no known physical resonance .
Examples of a real harmonic lock would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or other orbital resonance .
– – – Wiki : no known physical resonance But is there really an error ?
If we look hard enough , such a ‘ physical resonance ’ is found at 6441 tropical years , which is 19*339 as the chart on the right taken from this Talkshop post shows .
Wiki : Nineteen tropical years differ from 235 synodic months by about 2 hours .
In 339 occurrences of 19 years , we have ‘ 339*235 , minus 1 ’ synodic months i.e .
79664 SM .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ month : 1 SM = 29.530589 days = 708.73413 hours 708.73413 / 339 = 2.0906611 hours — which is ‘ about 2 hours ’ , so our chart is accurate enough in that regard .
6441 tropical years ( TY ) is about a quarter of the current axial precession period of the Earth : 6441*4 = 25764 TY = 25763 sidereal years Precession is believed to be 25770 years approx .
and declining .
– – – Fun with numbers : 79664 = 339*235 , -1 or 766*104 .
235+104 = 339

Encylopaedia Britannica on the Metonic cycle:
Metonic cycle, in chronology, a period of 19 years in which there are 235 lunations, or synodic months, after which the Moon’s phases recur on the same days of the solar year, or year of the seasons. The cycle was discovered by Meton (fl. 432 bc), an Athenian astronomer.
Calendar Wiki’s opening paragraphs on the Metonic cycle say:
The Metonic cycle or Enneadecaeteris in astronomy and calendar studies is a particular approximate common multiple of the year (specifically, the seasonal i.e. tropical year) and the synodic month. Nineteen tropical years differ from 235 synodic months by about 2 hours. The Metonic cycle’s error is one full day every 219 years, or 12.4 parts per million.
19 tropical years = 6939.602 days
235 synodic months = 6939.688 days
It is helpful to recognize that this is an approximation of reality. The period of the Moon’s orbit around the Earth and the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (ignoring also exact definition of the year) are independent and have no known physical resonance. Examples of a real harmonic lock would be Mercury, with its 3:2 spin-orbit resonance or other orbital resonance.
– – –
Wiki: no known physical resonance
But is there really an error? If we look hard enough, such a ‘physical resonance’ is found at 6441 tropical years, which is 19*339 as the chart on the right taken from this Talkshop post shows.
Wiki: Nineteen tropical years differ from 235 synodic months by about 2 hours.
In 339 occurrences of 19 years, we have ‘339*235, minus 1’ synodic months i.e. 79664 SM. If we break down the one lost month:
1 SM = 29.530589 days = 708.73413 hours
708.73413 / 339 = 2.0906611 hours — which is ‘about 2 hours’, so our chart is accurate enough in that regard.
6441 tropical years(TY) is about a quarter of the current axial precession period of the Earth:
6441*4 = 25764 TY = 25763 sidereal years
Precession is believed to be 25770 years approx. and declining.
– – –
Fun with numbers: 79664 = 339*235,-1 or 766*104.
235+104 = 339
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April 3, 2020 at 12:03PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Record cold in Ukraine threatens crops

Record cold in Ukraine threatens crops

In the morning of April 1 , the air in the Dnieper cooled to -6°C , breaking the earlier record set in 2005 of -5.3°C ) .
In Chernivtsi it was -6.4°C , shattering the 2005 record of -3.6°C .
Unbelievable cold of -7.4°C was noted in both Rivne and Lviv , and frost at this time of year is a threat .
And this is not a complete list of records .
In the coming days , air temperature in most of Ukraine will be slightly lower than the climatic norm , but no records are expected .
April @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , during the day +11 .. + 16°C .
http : //www.hmn.ru/index.php ?
index=1 & ts=200402104851 ————— Moscow covered in snow on March 31 This winter was snowless , so it was very surprising to hear the sound of snow shovels on March 31 .
It snowed all night , and the snow depth reached 3cm in the morning .
Blizzard was an even more rare phenomenon this winter .
However , there was a spring blizzard .
snow .
https : //www.gismeteo.com/news/climate/33405-moscow-covered-in-snow-on-march-31/ — Cold front approaching Southern Russia ; temperatures may drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on March 31 , 2020 : https : //www.gismeteo.com/static/news/img/src/33403/f9d64efe.jpg —– Chukotka policeman rescues a woman affected by a hurricane “ Yuzhak ” ( the so-called strong Arctic wind ) .
The wind reached a speed of 49 meters per second ( 176 Km/h ) in the northernmost city of Chukotka .
http : //meteo-tv.ru/news/Prirodnye-proisshestviya/Politseyskiy-vo-vremya-uragana-spas-zhenshchinu-/ http : //www.interfax-russia.ru/FarEast/news.asp ?
id=1118871 & sec=1671 Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links “ It ’ s not surprising that there are still frosts now in southern Italy , spring snow in Moscow and heavy frosts in Ukraine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Record cold in Ukraine threatens crops appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Spring blizzard in Moscow.
__________
Record-breaking cold
In the morning of April 1, the air in the Dnieper cooled to -6°C, breaking the earlier record set in 2005 of -5.3°C). In Chernivtsi it was -6.4°C, shattering the 2005 record of -3.6°C .
Unbelievable cold of -7.4°C was noted in both Rivne and Lviv, and frost at this time of year is a threat.
And this is not a complete list of records.
In the coming days, air temperature in most of Ukraine will be slightly lower than the climatic norm, but no records are expected. April 3 at night -4 .. + 1°C, during the day +11 .. + 16°C.
http://www.hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=200402104851
—————
Moscow covered in snow on March 31
This winter was snowless, so it was very surprising to hear the sound of snow shovels on March 31. It snowed all night, and the snow depth reached 3cm in the morning.
Blizzard was an even more rare phenomenon this winter. However, there was a spring blizzard. snow.
https://www.gismeteo.com/news/climate/33405-moscow-covered-in-snow-on-march-31/
—
Cold front approaching Southern Russia; temperatures may drop below freezing
https://www.gismeteo.com/news/climate/33403-cold-front-approaching-southern-russia-temperatures-may-drop-below-freezing/
Minimum temperatures on March 31, 2020:
https://www.gismeteo.com/static/news/img/src/33403/f9d64efe.jpg
—–
Chukotka policeman rescues a woman affected by a hurricane “Yuzhak” (the so-called strong Arctic wind).
The wind reached a speed of 49 meters per second (176 Km/h) in the northernmost city of Chukotka.
http://meteo-tv.ru/news/Prirodnye-proisshestviya/Politseyskiy-vo-vremya-uragana-spas-zhenshchinu-/
http://www.interfax-russia.ru/FarEast/news.asp?id=1118871&sec=1671
Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links
“It’s not surprising that there are still frosts now in southern Italy, spring snow in Moscow and heavy frosts in Ukraine,” says Martin.
The post Record cold in Ukraine threatens crops appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 3, 2020 at 12:01PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Friday Funny – Venal Swamp Mann

Friday Funny – Venal Swamp Mann

There ’ s a saying “ Strike while the iron is hot.
” There ’ s also a saying “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
” In this case , I think the latter applies .
Michael Mann , serial litigator has come up with a new angle ; he ’ s calling Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick to produce some “ evidence ” via sending a superfluous and harassing legal notice .
Apparently , he ’ s sending them to others as well , including Lindzen , Christy and Wegman .
This could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mann ’ s legal team is sending legal malarkey to anyone who might conceivably be an expert witness for the defense .
It appears the goal is to intimidate them with far-reaching document production requests .
Steve McIntyre has this to say on Twitter : I have a nominee for most absurdly venal activity during COVID lockdown .
Michael Mann has ramped up his vanity libel lawsuit .
Last Friday , McKitrick and I ( who are non-parties in lawsuit ) were notified by a Washington lawyer for one of the defendants that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ( the defendant ’ s lawyer ) accept service of ( separate ) subpoenas to McKitrick and myself for documents .
To be clear , McKitrick and I are not only not defendants in Mann ’ s stupid lawsuit , but , in one of his pleadings , Mann offered up that we had never accused him of fraud .
Mann asked the lawyer to accept service , presumably because we ’ re Canadian .
It was explained to us that , if we didn ’ t authorize the Washington lawyer to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to initiate proceedings in a Canadian court in which he would have to justify his subpoena .
It ’ s hard to picture a Canadian court being interested in breaking our coronavirus lockdown in order to accommodate Mann ’ s vanity litigation .
But it proceeds onward in the fetid swamp of D.C. courts .
Also , if Mann is interested in what I ’ ve said about his work , he ought to start with the many posts and comments at Climate Audit , all of which are publicly available .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s content on his own time and his own nickel .
Josh an I collaborated on an appropriate response .

There’s a saying “Strike while the iron is hot.” There’s also a saying “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” In this case, I think the latter applies.
Michael Mann, serial litigator has come up with a new angle; he’s calling Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick to produce some “evidence” via sending a superfluous and harassing legal notice. Apparently, he’s sending them to others as well, including Lindzen, Christy and Wegman.
This could be construed as witness tampering. Essentially, Mann’s legal team is sending legal malarkey to anyone who might conceivably be an expert witness for the defense. It appears the goal is to intimidate them with far-reaching document production requests.
Steve McIntyre has this to say on Twitter:
I have a nominee for most absurdly venal activity during COVID lockdown. Michael Mann has ramped up his vanity libel lawsuit. Last Friday, McKitrick and I (who are non-parties in lawsuit) were notified by a Washington lawyer for one of the defendants that Mann’s lawyer had requested that he (the defendant’s lawyer) accept service of (separate) subpoenas to McKitrick and myself for documents. To be clear, McKitrick and I are not only not defendants in Mann’s stupid lawsuit, but, in one of his pleadings, Mann offered up that we had never accused him of fraud. Mann asked the lawyer to accept service, presumably because we’re Canadian. It was explained to us that, if we didn’t authorize the Washington lawyer to accept the subpoenas, Mann would have to initiate proceedings in a Canadian court in which he would have to justify his subpoena. It’s hard to picture a Canadian court being interested in breaking our coronavirus lockdown in order to accommodate Mann’s vanity litigation. But it proceeds onward in the fetid swamp of D.C. courts. Also, if Mann is interested in what I’ve said about his work, he ought to start with the many posts and comments at Climate Audit, all of which are publicly available. He can collate them to his heart’s content on his own time and his own nickel.
Josh an I collaborated on an appropriate response.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Snowing heavily in North and South Dakota – Videos

2 Apr 2020 – I sure don ’ t miss driving in these conditions !
Thanks to Kenneth Lund for @ @ @ @ @ heavily in North and South Dakota – Videos appeared first on Ice Age Now .

2 Apr 2020 – I sure don’t miss driving in these conditions!
North Dakota:
South Dakota:
Thanks to Kenneth Lund for these videos
The post Snowing heavily in North and South Dakota – Videos appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 3, 2020 at 09:39AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--German Car Industry Calls On EU To Drop Tighter CO2 Emission Limits

The German car industry has urged the government to back them in efforts to make the European Union drop a planned tightening of emission limits on cars , reports Süddeutsche Zeitung .
Leading industry and trade union representatives met with Chancellor Angela Merkel , economy minister Peter Altmaier , and transport minister Andreas Scheuer on 1 April for a crisis meeting in light of the economic difficulties car manufacturers are facing due to the coronavirus .
“ This not the time to think about further tightening of the CO₂ regulation , ” Hildegard Müller , president of in the influential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Meanwhile , analysts from the Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg ( LBBW ) called it “ absolutely necessary ” to discuss the European Commission ’ s CO2 fleet regulations in light of the coronavirus crisis , writes media FAZ .
The analysts expect 12 to 15 percent fewer cars being sold worldwide this year , while manufacturers may have to pay 15 billion euros in fines to the EU for failing to comply with CO2 limits .
“ Surely it can not be that the state is supporting the economy with short-time work and liquidity aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manufacturers are supposed to transfer 15 billion euros to Brussels , ” said LBBW car analyst Gerhard Wolf .
The bank proposed suspending fines for a year , slowing down the tightening of CO2 fleet limits , or introducing a bonus system to reward progress on green mobility .
New registrations of cars on German roads plunged in March to the lowest in almost three decades , official data showed Friday , as restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus inflicted a heavy blow .
Sales tumbled 38 percent year-on-year to just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ KBA vehicle licensing authority .
“ Necessary health policy measures , like the massive limits on public life , closure of car dealerships and limited ability to work in the licensing offices ” had braked the car trade , the VDA carmakers ’ federation said .
Domestic demand fell 30 percent , while foreign orders were down 37 percent .
In a quarterly comparison , sales in January-March were down 20 percent year-on-year .
“ April is likely to be even more catastrophic , ” analysts from consultancy EY predicted .

The German car industry has urged the government to back them in efforts to make the European Union drop a planned tightening of emission limits on cars, reports Süddeutsche Zeitung . Leading industry and trade union representatives met with Chancellor Angela Merkel, economy minister Peter Altmaier, and transport minister Andreas Scheuer on 1 April for a crisis meeting in light of the economic difficulties car manufacturers are facing due to the coronavirus. “This not the time to think about further tightening of the CO₂ regulation,” Hildegard Müller, president of in the influential carmaker lobby group VDA later said.
Meanwhile, analysts from the Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg (LBBW) called it “absolutely necessary” to discuss the European Commission’s CO2 fleet regulations in light of the coronavirus crisis, writes media FAZ . The analysts expect 12 to 15 percent fewer cars being sold worldwide this year, while manufacturers may have to pay 15 billion euros in fines to the EU for failing to comply with CO2 limits. “Surely it cannot be that the state is supporting the economy with short-time work and liquidity aid and at the same time the car manufacturers are supposed to transfer 15 billion euros to Brussels,” said LBBW car analyst Gerhard Wolf. The bank proposed suspending fines for a year, slowing down the tightening of CO2 fleet limits, or introducing a bonus system to reward progress on green mobility.
New registrations of cars on German roads plunged in March to the lowest in almost three decades, official data showed Friday, as restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus inflicted a heavy blow.
Sales tumbled 38 percent year-on-year to just over 215,100 according to data from the KBA vehicle licensing authority.
“Necessary health policy measures, like the massive limits on public life, closure of car dealerships and limited ability to work in the licensing offices” had braked the car trade, the VDA carmakers’ federation said.
Domestic demand fell 30 percent, while foreign orders were down 37 percent.
In a quarterly comparison, sales in January-March were down 20 percent year-on-year.
“April is likely to be even more catastrophic,” analysts from consultancy EY predicted.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--COP26 Delay: Climate Activists Hopeful They’ll Have New President in the White House

Climate activists are hoping the COP26 Climate Conference delay will give them an opportunity to get rid of President Trump before the conference , to improve their odds of securing funding from US taxpayers to give the conference a much needed boost .
‘ We must use this time well ’ : climate experts hopeful after Cop26 delay Moving summit gives world time to respond to coronavirus and may allow a new US leader to join talks Moving the 26th conference of the parties to an as yet unspecified new date next year gives countries time to work out their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experts hope will include commitments on shifting to a low-carbon economy rather than propping up the fossil fuel industry .
“ There is an opportunity in the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis to create a new approach to [ economic ] growth that is a sustainable and resilient economy in closer harmony with the natural world , ” said Nicholas Stern , one of the world ’ s leading climate economists .
“ That will be the challenge and opportunity of Cop26 next year .
We must use this time well.
” Whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration , the delay has an advantage for countries negotiating with the US , said Nathaniel Keohane , a senior vice president at the Environmental Defense Fund in the US .
“ Under the original schedule , the Cop was going to be overshadowed by the US elections regardless of the outcome , ” explained Keohane .
“ The shift in schedule will allow countries to react and respond .
If a Democrat wins in November , then by the time of the Cop , the US will have re-entered Paris and will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delegation , giving an important and positive boost to the talks .
And if Trump is re-elected , other countries will have had time to absorb that information by the time of the Cop and know definitively that they have to move on without the US .
”

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Climate activists are hoping the COP26 Climate Conference delay will give them an opportunity to get rid of President Trump before the conference, to improve their odds of securing funding from US taxpayers to give the conference a much needed boost.
‘We must use this time well’: climate experts hopeful after Cop26 delay
Moving summit gives world time to respond to coronavirus and may allow a new US leader to join talks
Fiona Harvey Environment correspondent
Thu 2 Apr 2020 23.01 AEDT
…
Moving the 26th conference of the parties to an as yet unspecified new date next year gives countries time to work out their responses to the Covid-19 emergency, which experts hope will include commitments on shifting to a low-carbon economy rather than propping up the fossil fuel industry.
“There is an opportunity in the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis to create a new approach to [economic] growth that is a sustainable and resilient economy in closer harmony with the natural world,” said Nicholas Stern, one of the world’s leading climate economists. “That will be the challenge and opportunity of Cop26 next year. We must use this time well.”
…
Whether or not there is a change of administration, the delay has an advantage for countries negotiating with the US, said Nathaniel Keohane, a senior vice president at the Environmental Defense Fund in the US.
“Under the original schedule, the Cop was going to be overshadowed by the US elections regardless of the outcome,” explained Keohane. “The shift in schedule will allow countries to react and respond. If a Democrat wins in November, then by the time of the Cop, the US will have re-entered Paris and will be able to send a high-level political delegation, giving an important and positive boost to the talks. And if Trump is re-elected, other countries will have had time to absorb that information by the time of the Cop and know definitively that they have to move on without the US.”
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-04--German car industry calls on EU to drop tighter CO2 emission targets

The public turns out not be persuaded by EU bureaucrats that expensive short-range BEVs with high depreciation , limited recharge @ @ @ @ @ are the way to go .
And the current virus situation only reduces spending power @ @ @ @ @ nowhere to go but down as massive fines for missing absurd CO2 targets begin to @ @ @ @ @ The German car industry is calling for stricter EU climate requirements to be overturned or @ @ @ @ @ sales plummet to lowest level in nearly three decades .
It has urged the government @ @ @ @ @ to make the European Union drop a planned tightening of emission limits on cars , @ @ @ @ @ industry and trade union representatives met with Chancellor Angela Merkel , economy minister Peter Altmaier @ @ @ @ @ Scheuer on 1 April for a crisis meeting in light of the economic difficulties car @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus .
“ This not the time to think about further tightening of the @ @ @ @ @ Müller , president of in the influential carmaker lobby group VDA later said .

H/T The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
The public turns out not be persuaded by EU bureaucrats that expensive short-range BEVs with high depreciation, limited recharge options and uncertain battery life are the way to go. And the current virus situation only reduces spending power, leaving car makers with nowhere to go but down as massive fines for missing absurd CO2 targets begin to bite.
– – –
The German car industry is calling for stricter EU climate requirements to be overturned or to be delayed as car sales plummet to lowest level in nearly three decades.
It has urged the government to back them in efforts to make the European Union drop a planned tightening of emission limits on cars, reports Süddeutsche Zeitung.
Leading industry and trade union representatives met with Chancellor Angela Merkel, economy minister Peter Altmaier, and transport minister Andreas Scheuer on 1 April for a crisis meeting in light of the economic difficulties car manufacturers are facing due to the coronavirus.
“This not the time to think about further tightening of the CO₂ regulation,” Hildegard Müller, president of in the influential carmaker lobby group VDA later said.
Full article here.
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April 4, 2020 at 04:33AM


Are lockdowns working?

In recent weeks , behind the scenes , a battle royal has been raging among the epidemiologists advising governments .
On one side are the activists , who argue that the Chinese virus is both more infectious and likely to prove more fatal than influenza , a deadly combination .
The activists ’ strongest arguments are that in the early stages of a pandemic the daily growth rate is exponential ; that in the absence of determined control measures a quarter of the global population would be infected by the end of May ; and that continued exponential growth at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % ( entailing a doubling every 3.8 days ) that prevailed until mid-March would rapidly overwhelm not only the hospitals but also the morgues , as has already happened in Spain and northern Italy .
On the other side are the passivists , who argue that after a few weeks in lockdown people will cease to observe the restrictions , introducing a second wave of infection .
They hold that the best thing to do is let everyone become infected , let the old and the sick die , let the health services @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acquire what the lamentable Chief Officer of Health in London described at a press conference some weeks ago as “ herd immunity ” .
The international outcry at this crass remark led the British government to backtrack at once .
I declare an interest .
When it comes to preventing pandemics , I am an activist .
The earlier one interferes with the exponential growth of a pathogen as infectious as the Chinese virus , the less the cost in lives and treasure .
When HIV first emerged , I minuted the Cabinet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ universal testing , followed by immediate , compulsory and permanent isolation of carriers .
No such action was taken , unfortunately .
The result is that some 50 million have died of HIV , another 500,000 a year die of it , and the cost of treating those who are HIV-positive is heavy .
Nearly all those deaths were preventable .
The Chinese virus is considerably more infectious and more fatal than HIV .
Realizing this , the British Prime Minister , after weeks of listening to the internal wranglings between the activist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unable to agree among themselves , took a command decision to lock down the United Kingdom firmly , completely and for as long as might be necessary .
He was persuaded by modeling from Imperial College , London , showing just how rapidly the National Health Service would be overwhelmed if things went on as the passivists wished .
It was clear to the Prime Minister that patients suffering from diseases other than the Chinese virus would be placed at risk as the health system collapsed .
Mr Trump , who , like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by instinct reluctant to subject the entire population to house arrest and to cause dislocation and damage to the economy , eventually came to a similar view .
The situation is more complicated in the United States , where the individual states rather than the Federal administration are chiefly responsible for public-health measures .
But in many states , as in many nations round the world , lockdowns of varying severity have been introduced .
The activists have thus far prevailed .
But are the lockdowns working ?
A simple performance indicator , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not the house arrest and related measures to which they are being subjected should be persisted in , is necessary .
Remarkably , however , no such benchmark test is yet available .
Therefore , I have been researching the statistics and propose the following test .
The reference period for the test is the three weeks from January 22 to 14 March 2020 , the date on which Mr Trump declared a national emergency .
During the reference period , the mean compound daily growth rate in confirmed cases was 19.8 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every 3.8 days .
To demonstrate the extent to which mitigation measures are or are not working , the benchmark test calculates the mean daily compound growth rate in confirmed cases of infection for successive seven-day periods ending on every day from March 14 to the present .
Here is the test for the world excluding China and occupied Tibet ( whose Communist regime can not be trusted to tell the truth about case numbers , or about anything else much ) ; for the United States , and for the two worst-affected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All four nations show an inexorable reduction in the daily rate of growth ( though it remains dangerously high ) .
The most impressive results are those for Italy , the first country in Europe to impose a strictish lockdown .
During the reference period , the Italian growth rate was more than 30 % per day , and cases were doubling every 2.6 days .
But the lockdown is beginning to work .
In the week to April 2 , the daily growth rate in Italy was down to 5.2 % .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would lead to a doubling of cases every two weeks .
But the trend in the daily growth rate is firmly downward , and it will probably continue that way – provided , that is , that people can see , as they can from this test , that the lockdown is indeed working .
In the world outside China , as more and more countries introduce lockdowns , the daily growth rate has declined from 19.8 % in the reference period to 11 % in the week to April 2 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth rate has declined a little , from 23.1 % in the reference period to 16.2 % in the week to April 1 .
Here is the benchmark test for four more countries : three in Europe and one for South Korea .
All four countries show declines in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases .
But in South Korea the pandemic is almost under control : The reason for the success in South Korea is that , following the SARS epidemic , the public health authorities fully understood the paramount importance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of carriers and vigorous contact-tracing , including use of the cellphone network to identify where the carriers had been and whom they had met .
The EU has picked up this idea , though the UK – in this as in much else – lags behind .
In particular , ever since the SARS epidemic the Korean public health authorities have maintained a very large testing capacity .
They activated it as soon as they realized that the director of the World Health Organization , who has close links to the Peking regime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parroting Chinese propaganda to the effect that the virus could not be transmitted from human to human , could not be relied upon .
Britain will be calling for an independent investigation of the WHO ’ s gross misconduct in this affair as soon as the pandemic is under control .
South Korea also adopted national lockdown .
The public health authorities also recommend use of personal protective equipment ( notably face-masks ) not only by health professionals but also by the general public when outdoors .
In this respect , too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the WHO , which has today announced it is reconsidering its notion that masks are valueless .
The director of Korea ’ s public health authority bluntly says that the evidence that masks work is overwhelming .
Following his advice rather than that of the useless WHO , I wear a full-face motorcycle helmet and gauntlets whenever I leave our own grounds .
Full-face protection is useful , according to the South Koreans , because the Chinese virus can enter the body not only through the nose and mouth but also through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even wearing spectacles provides some measure of additional protection .
As South Korea ’ s expert made clear in an excellent recent interview , it is necessary to obtain every advantage one can , because each additional barrier to transmission helps to bring the pandemic under control .
It is South Korea , then , that provides the clearest evidence that prompt , determined and vigorous control measures work , and work well .
Both Germany and France have done quite well in beginning to control the pandemic .
Their mean daily growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % in the benchmark period to around 10 % in the week to April 2 .
The United Kingdom , however , had a daily growth rate of 16.4 % in that week : a value scarcely better than the global 19.8 % during the reference period from January 22 to March 14 .
The UK is the worst-performing of the 12 territories tracked here .
Germany and France both took advantage of the EU ’ s system for supplying both testing kits and personal protective equipment for health professionals .
The UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EU ’ s email in time .
Worse , British civil servants are so used to acting simply as passive agents for the Brussels tyranny-by-clerk that they were more or less completely unprepared for a pandemic , and the flapping-around is saddening to watch .
The former director of “ Public Health England ” , a grim but useless bureaucracy , was asked four times yesterday why it was that Germany had tested more than 500,000 of its citizens in all , while Britain had not yet managed to test 10,000 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer .
Here are benchmark tests for four more countries : Canada , Australia , Sweden and Ireland .
Note that for Ireland the benchmark period is the two weeks to March 14 rather than three weeks , because Ireland began to report cases later than other countries .
From the point of view of the passivists , Sweden is the most interesting result .
For its public health authorities are passivists : they have not introduced a lockdown .
Yet their daily growth rate has fallen to 10 % , among the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing concern among health professionals in Sweden that the do-little option may yet prove fatal .
It is possible , then , that Sweden will follow other European countries in imposing a strict lockdown in the near future .
In the past ten days , other countries have seen a decline in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases , but Sweden , uniquely , has not .
Overall , the benchmark test show – at this early stage – that the lockdowns are beginning to work .
The daily growth rate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have been locked down , and is tending to fall fastest in countries with the most determined control measures .
The next few weeks will be particularly interesting , because it is in the nature of exponential growth curves that , just as the growth is very rapid if control measures are not tough enough , the slowing of growth is just as rapid when the measures really begin to bite .
Over the next few weeks , the extent of the lockdowns ’ success or failure will become evident .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the benchmark tables daily until further notice .
It should be made clear that the benchmark test is not policy-prescriptive .
It merely shows , in a dispassionate fashion based on the available data ( warts and all ) the extent to which control measures are or are not working , territory by territory and for the world excluding China .
Finally , the question arises whether the official data on which I have relied are trustworthy .
The answer is that they are not , for the lack of widespread testing has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbers infected .
Take the United States as an illustration .
On average the Chinese virus takes five days to incubate and a further 16 days to kill those to whom it proves fatal .
The least unreliable of the official statistics are those for deaths caused by the virus .
On February 29 the United States reported its first death from the virus .
The World Health Organization , which had originally estimated a death rate of 2 % ( as it had with SARS , whose death rate was actually 9.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3.4 % .
In that event , 21 days previously , on February 8 , there must have been 1 / 3.4 % , or 29 cases .
However , only five cases were reported .
But if there were 29 cases on February 8 , and if the growth rate for unreported cases is the same as for reported cases , the true number of cases by February 29 was not 5 , as reported , but more than 2300 .
Performing a similar calculation for each day until April 2 would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not 26,500 cases of infection in total by that day , as reported by the U.S. administration , but 36 million .
Curiously , if this were true it would not be all bad news .
For the death rate would then be less than 0.02 % , rather than the WHO ’ s 3.4 % .
What is more , since only 6000 deaths have been reported in the U.S. , the vast majority of those infected would have suffered symptoms little worse than those of the common cold and have recovered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immunity ” of which the British public health commissar spoke is being built up at a rapid rate .
If the death rate is only 1 % , it is possible that 123 million people – more than one-third of the U.S. population – are already infected .
If , however , it is 10 % , as for SARS , then about 12 million U.S. citizens are infected .
What , then , is the true death rate ?
This early in the pandemic , the answer is that nobody really knows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ magnitude .
The standard method of obtaining a preliminary assessment of the death rate in the early stages of a pandemic is to consider the closed cases – those who , having been infected , have either recovered or died .
Until April 2 , 135,447 people outside China and occupied Tibet were reported as recovered from the infection , while 49,845 had died .
Therefore , 185,252 had either recovered or died , and the deaths represented not 2 % nor 3.4 % but almost 27 % of all these closed cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported anywhere , but that is the figure .
If the death rate is indeed 27 % , then only 4.6 million U.S. citizens are infected , compared with the reported .
However , the 27 % figure should be regarded with some caution , since it takes no account of the under-reporting of cases , many of which will have been recoveries or asymptomatic .
But it does suggest that of the currently-active 748,153 confirmed cases outside China more than 200,000 will be likely to die worldwide .
The Chinese virus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , either because far more are infected than are being reported or because the death rate is higher than the WHO imagines , or both .
At this stage , we do not know : but no responsible government , seeing figures such as these , would consider itself as acting responsibly if it were to fail to ensure that energetic control measures were put in place .
In all this mishmash of competing statistics , the one certainty is the daily mean rate at which reported cases have been increasing .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the basis for the benchmark test .
My hypothesis is that , thanks to the decisive measures taken by most governments , the daily growth rate of total confirmed cases will continue to fall , and that about 1-2 weeks from now the fall will become quite rapid , perhaps buying enough time for health services to increase their capacity to handle intensive-care patients on ventilators , and to perform antigen tests for the presence of the virus and , no less importantly , antibody tests to demonstrate that those who have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growth rates do not fall very quickly to South Korean values , then the capacity of health services will be overwhelmed .
As of yesterday , the hospital ship sent by President Trump to New York had just three patients on board .
Expect the ship to be filled to capacity within days .
Keep safe .
And come back here daily for the updated benchmark test .

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
In recent weeks, behind the scenes, a battle royal has been raging among the epidemiologists advising governments. On one side are the activists, who argue that the Chinese virus is both more infectious and likely to prove more fatal than influenza, a deadly combination.
The activists’ strongest arguments are that in the early stages of a pandemic the daily growth rate is exponential; that in the absence of determined control measures a quarter of the global population would be infected by the end of May; and that continued exponential growth at the daily compound rate of almost 20% (entailing a doubling every 3.8 days) that prevailed until mid-March would rapidly overwhelm not only the hospitals but also the morgues, as has already happened in Spain and northern Italy.
On the other side are the passivists, who argue that after a few weeks in lockdown people will cease to observe the restrictions, introducing a second wave of infection. They hold that the best thing to do is let everyone become infected, let the old and the sick die, let the health services collapse, and leave the population to acquire what the lamentable Chief Officer of Health in London described at a press conference some weeks ago as “herd immunity”. The international outcry at this crass remark led the British government to backtrack at once.
I declare an interest. When it comes to preventing pandemics, I am an activist. The earlier one interferes with the exponential growth of a pathogen as infectious as the Chinese virus, the less the cost in lives and treasure. When HIV first emerged, I minuted the Cabinet to the effect that there should be universal testing, followed by immediate, compulsory and permanent isolation of carriers. No such action was taken, unfortunately. The result is that some 50 million have died of HIV, another 500,000 a year die of it, and the cost of treating those who are HIV-positive is heavy. Nearly all those deaths were preventable.
The Chinese virus is considerably more infectious and more fatal than HIV. Realizing this, the British Prime Minister, after weeks of listening to the internal wranglings between the activist and passivist public-health scientists, who were unable to agree among themselves, took a command decision to lock down the United Kingdom firmly, completely and for as long as might be necessary. He was persuaded by modeling from Imperial College, London, showing just how rapidly the National Health Service would be overwhelmed if things went on as the passivists wished. It was clear to the Prime Minister that patients suffering from diseases other than the Chinese virus would be placed at risk as the health system collapsed.
Mr Trump, who, like Mr Johnson (and me) was by instinct reluctant to subject the entire population to house arrest and to cause dislocation and damage to the economy, eventually came to a similar view. The situation is more complicated in the United States, where the individual states rather than the Federal administration are chiefly responsible for public-health measures. But in many states, as in many nations round the world, lockdowns of varying severity have been introduced. The activists have thus far prevailed.
But are the lockdowns working? A simple performance indicator, clear enough to show people whether or not the house arrest and related measures to which they are being subjected should be persisted in, is necessary. Remarkably, however, no such benchmark test is yet available. Therefore, I have been researching the statistics and propose the following test. The reference period for the test is the three weeks from January 22 to 14 March 2020, the date on which Mr Trump declared a national emergency. During the reference period, the mean compound daily growth rate in confirmed cases was 19.8%. Confirmed cases were thus doubling worldwide every 3.8 days.
To demonstrate the extent to which mitigation measures are or are not working, the benchmark test calculates the mean daily compound growth rate in confirmed cases of infection for successive seven-day periods ending on every day from March 14 to the present. Here is the test for the world excluding China and occupied Tibet (whose Communist regime cannot be trusted to tell the truth about case numbers, or about anything else much); for the United States, and for the two worst-affected European nations, Italy and Spain:
All four nations show an inexorable reduction in the daily rate of growth (though it remains dangerously high). The most impressive results are those for Italy, the first country in Europe to impose a strictish lockdown. During the reference period, the Italian growth rate was more than 30% per day, and cases were doubling every 2.6 days. But the lockdown is beginning to work. In the week to April 2, the daily growth rate in Italy was down to 5.2%. Even that is an alarming value: it would lead to a doubling of cases every two weeks. But the trend in the daily growth rate is firmly downward, and it will probably continue that way – provided, that is, that people can see, as they can from this test, that the lockdown is indeed working. In the world outside China, as more and more countries introduce lockdowns, the daily growth rate has declined from 19.8% in the reference period to 11% in the week to April 2. In the United States, the daily growth rate has declined a little, from 23.1% in the reference period to 16.2% in the week to April 1.
Here is the benchmark test for four more countries: three in Europe and one for South Korea. All four countries show declines in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases. But in South Korea the pandemic is almost under control:
The reason for the success in South Korea is that, following the SARS epidemic, the public health authorities fully understood the paramount importance of very widespread testing, immediate isolation of carriers and vigorous contact-tracing, including use of the cellphone network to identify where the carriers had been and whom they had met. The EU has picked up this idea, though the UK – in this as in much else – lags behind.
In particular, ever since the SARS epidemic the Korean public health authorities have maintained a very large testing capacity. They activated it as soon as they realized that the director of the World Health Organization, who has close links to the Peking regime and had as recently as January been parroting Chinese propaganda to the effect that the virus could not be transmitted from human to human, could not be relied upon.
Britain will be calling for an independent investigation of the WHO’s gross misconduct in this affair as soon as the pandemic is under control.
South Korea also adopted national lockdown. The public health authorities also recommend use of personal protective equipment (notably face-masks) not only by health professionals but also by the general public when outdoors. In this respect, too, the South Korean public health authorities disagree with the WHO, which has today announced it is reconsidering its notion that masks are valueless. The director of Korea’s public health authority bluntly says that the evidence that masks work is overwhelming.
Following his advice rather than that of the useless WHO, I wear a full-face motorcycle helmet and gauntlets whenever I leave our own grounds. Full-face protection is useful, according to the South Koreans, because the Chinese virus can enter the body not only through the nose and mouth but also through the mucous membranes of the eyes. Even wearing spectacles provides some measure of additional protection. As South Korea’s expert made clear in an excellent recent interview, it is necessary to obtain every advantage one can, because each additional barrier to transmission helps to bring the pandemic under control.
It is South Korea, then, that provides the clearest evidence that prompt, determined and vigorous control measures work, and work well.
Both Germany and France have done quite well in beginning to control the pandemic. Their mean daily growth rates were down from more than 30% in the benchmark period to around 10% in the week to April 2. The United Kingdom, however, had a daily growth rate of 16.4% in that week: a value scarcely better than the global 19.8% during the reference period from January 22 to March 14. The UK is the worst-performing of the 12 territories tracked here.
Germany and France both took advantage of the EU’s system for supplying both testing kits and personal protective equipment for health professionals. The UK, however, failed to respond to the EU’s email in time. Worse, British civil servants are so used to acting simply as passive agents for the Brussels tyranny-by-clerk that they were more or less completely unprepared for a pandemic, and the flapping-around is saddening to watch.
The former director of “Public Health England”, a grim but useless bureaucracy, was asked four times yesterday why it was that Germany had tested more than 500,000 of its citizens in all, while Britain had not yet managed to test 10,000 in any one day. He could not answer.
Here are benchmark tests for four more countries: Canada, Australia, Sweden and Ireland. Note that for Ireland the benchmark period is the two weeks to March 14 rather than three weeks, because Ireland began to report cases later than other countries.
From the point of view of the passivists, Sweden is the most interesting result. For its public health authorities are passivists: they have not introduced a lockdown. Yet their daily growth rate has fallen to 10%, among the lowest anywhere. Nevertheless, there is growing concern among health professionals in Sweden that the do-little option may yet prove fatal. It is possible, then, that Sweden will follow other European countries in imposing a strict lockdown in the near future. In the past ten days, other countries have seen a decline in the daily growth rate of confirmed cases, but Sweden, uniquely, has not.
Overall, the benchmark test show – at this early stage – that the lockdowns are beginning to work. The daily growth rate in confirmed cases is falling in those countries that have been locked down, and is tending to fall fastest in countries with the most determined control measures.
The next few weeks will be particularly interesting, because it is in the nature of exponential growth curves that, just as the growth is very rapid if control measures are not tough enough, the slowing of growth is just as rapid when the measures really begin to bite.
Over the next few weeks, the extent of the lockdowns’ success or failure will become evident. For this reason, I propose to update the benchmark tables daily until further notice.
It should be made clear that the benchmark test is not policy-prescriptive. It merely shows, in a dispassionate fashion based on the available data (warts and all) the extent to which control measures are or are not working, territory by territory and for the world excluding China.
Finally, the question arises whether the official data on which I have relied are trustworthy. The answer is that they are not, for the lack of widespread testing has entailed a very substantial understatement of the numbers infected.
Take the United States as an illustration. On average the Chinese virus takes five days to incubate and a further 16 days to kill those to whom it proves fatal. The least unreliable of the official statistics are those for deaths caused by the virus. On February 29 the United States reported its first death from the virus. The World Health Organization, which had originally estimated a death rate of 2% (as it had with SARS, whose death rate was actually 9.6%), now estimates it at 3.4%. In that event, 21 days previously, on February 8, there must have been 1 / 3.4%, or 29 cases. However, only five cases were reported. But if there were 29 cases on February 8, and if the growth rate for unreported cases is the same as for reported cases, the true number of cases by February 29 was not 5, as reported, but more than 2300.
Performing a similar calculation for each day until April 2 would lead us to conclude that there were not 26,500 cases of infection in total by that day, as reported by the U.S. administration, but 36 million. Curiously, if this were true it would not be all bad news. For the death rate would then be less than 0.02%, rather than the WHO’s 3.4%.
What is more, since only 6000 deaths have been reported in the U.S., the vast majority of those infected would have suffered symptoms little worse than those of the common cold and have recovered, in which event the “herd immunity” of which the British public health commissar spoke is being built up at a rapid rate.
If the death rate is only 1%, it is possible that 123 million people – more than one-third of the U.S. population – are already infected. If, however, it is 10%, as for SARS, then about 12 million U.S. citizens are infected.
What, then, is the true death rate? This early in the pandemic, the answer is that nobody really knows, even to within an order of magnitude. The standard method of obtaining a preliminary assessment of the death rate in the early stages of a pandemic is to consider the closed cases – those who, having been infected, have either recovered or died. Until April 2, 135,447 people outside China and occupied Tibet were reported as recovered from the infection, while 49,845 had died. Therefore, 185,252 had either recovered or died, and the deaths represented not 2% nor 3.4% but almost 27% of all these closed cases. I have not seen that figure reported anywhere, but that is the figure.
If the death rate is indeed 27%, then only 4.6 million U.S. citizens are infected, compared with the reported. However, the 27% figure should be regarded with some caution, since it takes no account of the under-reporting of cases, many of which will have been recoveries or asymptomatic. But it does suggest that of the currently-active 748,153 confirmed cases outside China more than 200,000 will be likely to die worldwide.
The Chinese virus, then, will be a biggish killer, either because far more are infected than are being reported or because the death rate is higher than the WHO imagines, or both. At this stage, we do not know: but no responsible government, seeing figures such as these, would consider itself as acting responsibly if it were to fail to ensure that energetic control measures were put in place.
In all this mishmash of competing statistics, the one certainty is the daily mean rate at which reported cases have been increasing. That is why I have chosen this measure as the basis for the benchmark test.
My hypothesis is that, thanks to the decisive measures taken by most governments, the daily growth rate of total confirmed cases will continue to fall, and that about 1-2 weeks from now the fall will become quite rapid, perhaps buying enough time for health services to increase their capacity to handle intensive-care patients on ventilators, and to perform antigen tests for the presence of the virus and, no less importantly, antibody tests to demonstrate that those who have recovered are immune.
If the daily growth rates do not fall very quickly to South Korean values, then the capacity of health services will be overwhelmed. As of yesterday, the hospital ship sent by President Trump to New York had just three patients on board. Expect the ship to be filled to capacity within days.
Keep safe. And come back here daily for the updated benchmark test.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-04--SOS: EU Urged To Put Economic Survival Ahead Of Green Deal

Dorsman said it is “ impossible for the industry to continue the process of greening the fleet , which was picking up speed before the [ coronavirus ] pandemic set in , should this continue ” .
The European Community Shipowners ’ Associations ( ECSA ) said the shipping industry has to recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic before it can commit to a green deal .
ECSA secretary general Martin Dorsman urged the European Commission to assess the impact of the pandemic on the shipping industry and “ work on a recovery plan , before stating that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its deadline no matter what ” .
[ … . ]
Carmakers are requesting that the European Commission “ delay the application of certain rules ” relating to CO2 emissions in the wake of coronavirus shutdowns across Europe .
Several car manufacturers have sent a letter to the European Commission , enquiring whether “ certain rules ” can be altered due to the situation created by the coronavirus outbreak .
It ’ s understood that the request relates to the tough CO2 emissions targets that were introduced for 2020 , and if their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rules stipulate that the average emissions of all the cars sold by a manufacturer from 2020 must not exceed 95g/km , and if they do , the company will be liable for hefty fines .
Now , though , with car factories and dealers in almost every European country shut down due to government-imposed social-distancing and lockdown measures , brands are concerned they won ’ t be able to sell the cars needed to meet the target .

Dorsman said it is “impossible for the industry to continue the process of greening the fleet, which was picking up speed before the [coronavirus] pandemic set in, should this continue”.
The European Community Shipowners’ Associations (ECSA) said the shipping industry has to recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic before it can commit to a green deal. ECSA secretary general Martin Dorsman urged the European Commission to assess the impact of the pandemic on the shipping industry and “work on a recovery plan, before stating that the European green deal is keeping to its deadline no matter what”. [….]
Carmakers are requesting that the European Commission “delay the application of certain rules” relating to CO2 emissions in the wake of coronavirus shutdowns across Europe.
Several car manufacturers have sent a letter to the European Commission, enquiring whether “certain rules” can be altered due to the situation created by the coronavirus outbreak.
It’s understood that the request relates to the tough CO2 emissions targets that were introduced for 2020, and if their full implementation can be delayed.
The rules stipulate that the average emissions of all the cars sold by a manufacturer from 2020 must not exceed 95g/km, and if they do, the company will be liable for hefty fines.
Now, though, with car factories and dealers in almost every European country shut down due to government-imposed social-distancing and lockdown measures, brands are concerned they won’t be able to sell the cars needed to meet the target.