iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--CO2 Coalition: “The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Record How it works and why it is misleading”

Guest “ putting it in context ” by David Middleton Our friends at the CO2 Coalition have published another excellent report .
This white paper by Richard Lindzen and John Christy explores the global mean temperature anomaly record .
Their focus isn ’ t on whether it ’ s right or wrong ; it ’ s on its significance relative to natural variability and its inherently low signal-to-noise ratio .
Here ’ s the executive summary : STUDIES AND RESOURCES , WHITE PAPERS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS 4 DEC , 2020 The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Record How it works and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lindzen and John R. Christy The CO2 Coalition is honored to present this Climate Issues in Depth paper by two of America ’ s most respected and prolific atmospheric physicists , MIT professor emeritus Richard Lindzen , who is a longtime member of the Coalition , and University of Alabama in Huntsville professor John Christy .
Professor Lindzen has published over 200 scientific articles and books over a five-decade career .
He has held professorships at the University of Chicago , Harvard University and MIT .
He is a fellow and award recipient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American Geophysical Union .
He is also a member of the National Academy of Science and was a lead author of the UN IPCC ’ s third assessment report ’ s scientific volume .
His research has highlighted the scientific uncertainties about the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on temperature and climate more generally .
Professor Christy , the director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville , began studying global climate issues in 1987 .
He has been Alabama ’ s State Climatologist since 2000 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since 2002 .
He and CO2 Coalition member Dr. Roy W. Spencer developed and have maintained one of the key global temperature data sets relied on by scientists and government bodies , using microwave data observed in the troposphere from satellites since 1979 .
For this achievement , they were awarded NASA ’ s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement .
The purpose of this paper is to explain how the data set that is referred to by policy-makers and the media as the global surface temperature record is actually obtained , and where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with climate alarm .
Executive Summary At the center of most discussions of global warming is the record of the global mean surface temperature anomaly—often somewhat misleadingly referred to as the global mean temperature record .
This paper addresses two aspects of this record .
First , we note that this record is only one link in a fairly long chain of inference leading to the claimed need for worldwide reduction in CO2 emissions .
Second , we explore the implications of the way the record is constructed and presented , and show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is because the record is often treated as a kind of single , direct instrumental measurement .
However , as the late Stan Grotch of the Laurence Livermore Laboratory pointed out 30 years ago , it is really the average of widely scattered station data , where the actual data points are almost evenly spread between large positive and negative values .
The average is simply the small difference of these positive and negative excursions , with the usual problem associated with small differences of large numbers : at least thus far , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean since 1900 is swamped by the normal variations at individual stations , and so bears little relation to what is actually going on at a particular one .
The changes at the stations are distributed around the one-degree global average increase .
Even if a single station had recorded this increase itself , this would take a typical annual range of temperature there , for example , from -10 to 40 degrees in 1900 , and replace it with a range today from -9 to 41 .
People , crops , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hard to tell this difference .
However , the increase looks significant on the charts used in almost all presentations , because they omit the range of the original data points and expand the scale in order to make the mean change look large .
The record does display certain consistent trends , but it is also quite noisy , and fluctuations of a tenth or two of a degree are unlikely to be significant .
In the public discourse , little attention is paid to magnitudes ; the focus is rather on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Given the noise and sampling errors , it is rather easy to “ adjust ” such averaging , and even change the sign of a trend from positive to negative .
The common presentations often suppress the noise by using running averages over periods from 5 to 11 years .
However , such processing can also suppress meaningful features such as the wide variations that are always being experienced at individual stations .
Finally , we show the large natural temperature changes that Americans in 14 major cities must cope with every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference between the coldest and warmest moments each year ranges from about 25 degrees Celsius in Miami ( a 45-degree Fahrenheit change ) to 55 degrees in Denver ( a 99-degree Fahrenheit change ) .
We contrast this with the easily manageable 1.2-degree Celsius increase in the global mean temperature anomaly in the past 120 years , which has caused so much alarm in the media and in policy circles .

Guest “putting it in context” by David Middleton
Our friends at the CO2 Coalition have published another excellent report.
This white paper by Richard Lindzen and John Christy explores the global mean temperature anomaly record. Their focus isn’t on whether it’s right or wrong; it’s on its significance relative to natural variability and its inherently low signal-to-noise ratio. Here’s the executive summary:
STUDIES AND RESOURCES, WHITE PAPERS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS
4 DEC, 2020
The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Record
How it works and why it is misleading
by Richard S. Lindzen and John R. Christy
The CO2 Coalition is honored to present this Climate Issues in Depth paper by two of America’s most respected and prolific atmospheric physicists, MIT professor emeritus Richard Lindzen, who is a longtime member of the Coalition, and University of Alabama in Huntsville professor John Christy.
Professor Lindzen has published over 200 scientific articles and books over a five-decade career. He has held professorships at the University of Chicago, Harvard University and MIT. He is a fellow and award recipient of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union. He is also a member of the National Academy of Science and was a lead author of the UN IPCC’s third assessment report’s scientific volume. His research has highlighted the scientific uncertainties about the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on temperature and climate more generally.
Professor Christy, the director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, began studying global climate issues in 1987. He has been Alabama’s State Climatologist since 2000 and a fellow of the American Meteorological Society since 2002. He and CO2 Coalition member Dr. Roy W. Spencer developed and have maintained one of the key global temperature data sets relied on by scientists and government bodies, using microwave data observed in the troposphere from satellites since 1979. For this achievement, they were awarded NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement.
The purpose of this paper is to explain how the data set that is referred to by policy-makers and the media as the global surface temperature record is actually obtained, and where it fits into the popular narrative associated with climate alarm.
Executive Summary
At the center of most discussions of global warming is the record of the global mean surface temperature anomaly—often somewhat misleadingly referred to as the global mean temperature record. This paper addresses two aspects of this record. First, we note that this record is only one link in a fairly long chain of inference leading to the claimed need for worldwide reduction in CO2 emissions. Second, we explore the implications of the way the record is constructed and presented, and show why the record is misleading.
This is because the record is often treated as a kind of single, direct instrumental measurement. However, as the late Stan Grotch of the Laurence Livermore Laboratory pointed out 30 years ago, it is really the average of widely scattered station data, where the actual data points are almost evenly spread between large positive and negative values.
The average is simply the small difference of these positive and negative excursions, with the usual problem associated with small differences of large numbers: at least thus far, the one-degree Celsius increase in the global mean since 1900 is swamped by the normal variations at individual stations, and so bears little relation to what is actually going on at a particular one.
The changes at the stations are distributed around the one-degree global average increase. Even if a single station had recorded this increase itself, this would take a typical annual range of temperature there, for example, from -10 to 40 degrees in 1900, and replace it with a range today from -9 to 41. People, crops, and weather at that station would find it hard to tell this difference.
However, the increase looks significant on the charts used in almost all presentations, because they omit the range of the original data points and expand the scale in order to make the mean change look large.
The record does display certain consistent trends, but it is also quite noisy, and fluctuations of a tenth or two of a degree are unlikely to be significant. In the public discourse, little attention is paid to magnitudes; the focus is rather on whether this anomaly is increasing or decreasing. Given the noise and sampling errors, it is rather easy to “adjust” such averaging, and even change the sign of a trend from positive to negative.
The common presentations often suppress the noise by using running averages over periods from 5 to 11 years. However, such processing can also suppress meaningful features such as the wide variations that are always being experienced at individual stations. Finally, we show the large natural temperature changes that Americans in 14 major cities must cope with every year. For example, the average difference between the coldest and warmest moments each year ranges from about 25 degrees Celsius in Miami (a 45-degree Fahrenheit change) to 55 degrees in Denver (a 99-degree Fahrenheit change). We contrast this with the easily manageable 1.2-degree Celsius increase in the global mean temperature anomaly in the past 120 years, which has caused so much alarm in the media and in policy circles.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Gardens of Old Porites, Without Sharks

Gardens of Old Porites, Without Sharks

It is often reported that the Great Barrier Reef is half dead , specifically that the corals are bleached , and the water quality is degraded with pesticides and plastics .
If I didn ’ t know better , I might never want to visit a coral reef , lest I be forced to confront this reality – apparently all our fault .
Except the coral reefs that I dived last week each made me feel so alive , and in awe of their extraordinary beauty – especially Myrmidon reef which is an ancient and detached coral reef that juts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eastern edge of the Great Barrier Reef .
But we didn ’ t see many sharks .
The coral reef called Myrmidon is perhaps as old as the city of Troy .
In mythology , that city existed about 5,000 years ago and it was attacked by Achilles and 50 ships each carrying 50 Myrmidons .
Paleo-climatologists will argue that that geological period , known as the middle Holocene ( 7,000 to 4,500 years ago ) , was much warmer than the present with sea levels at least 1.5 metres higher than they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia including at the Great Barrier Reef .
Perhaps everything seemed unusually magical last Wednesday at Myrmidon because I dived into such crystal-clear water , and it was so sunny .
Looking back over the video footage , Myrmidon reef did not have particularly luxurious corals , but there was an iridescence and a beauty that I ’ ve not seen before .
It was so evident that the live corals were growing on-top of dead corals , not one or two generations dead , but representing thousands of years of growth and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The reef was unashamedly beautiful yet with so much exposed that represented layers and layers of dead coral .
The regrowth was so clearly on eroded antecedent surfaces .
Where we first jumped in at Myrmidon , the coral was sparse and stunted and there were piles of coral rubble some newly dead and covered in green algae .
My dive-buddy Shaun , and underwater videographer Stuart , swam with me around a ledge that led us down into an underwater canyon .
Green parrot fish swam metres above a giant clam with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blue zooxanthellae .
I knelt beside it , I was 17 metres under-the-water and feeling part of another world .
Stuart was not too far away , deciding which of the massive Porites along the walls of the canyon we would measure , and Shaun would photograph – then we ran the photographic transect .
Porites are the old boulder corals , which like the oldest trees in temperate forests , can be cored to reveal a climate history .
I was not at Myrmidon to core the Porites , but just to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to measure and photograph them – as well as running the photographic transects .
But really , I just wanted to sit next to the black clam speckled blue , which had thick olive-green shiny lips and watch it breathe and feed through its two siphons .
We cruised a total of 263 nautical miles ( nearly 500 kilometres ) last week in search of the old corals , the Porites .
We left Cairns on Saturday 28th December , and spent the first night moored behind Russell Island , which is part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the east of the town of Babinda .
On the first day we dived the fringing reef of High Island , the next day Normanby , and after that Britomart .
There were so many massive Porites at the reef fringing High Island and also at Normanby .
We didn ’ t find any Porites at Britomart .
That was perhaps because we only had an afternoon to search , and I made the wrong calls in terms of where we should jump-in , which is perhaps why we didn ’ t find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first dive site at Britomart , which had been my call , there were huge plate corals under-the-water that I had mistaken as Porites from above the water .
These corals were mostly dead , probably from a severe bleaching back in 2016 and then 2017 .
But it wasn ’ t all death and destruction at Britomart .
At the second site , where only Stuart jumped-in to the strong current with just his snorkel , he found and filmed large plate corals – so alive .
There was some extraordinary biodiversity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dory – there was also evidence of severe bleaching .
We only saw a single white tipped reef shark at that reef .
Every reef that we dived was so variable and each of the different habitats at Pixie , Britomart and Myrmidon had a different ensemble of coral species and forms .
But at each reef we only found a single shark .
Each of these reefs had a distinct reef crest that might have been more luxurious , and with better coral cover , some 5,000 years ago at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back then these reefs would have been younger and growing up with the sea level that was higher back then , the corals having grown-up 120 metres since the depth of the last ice age which was just 16,000 years ago .
Since at least 2,500 years ago these coral reefs have had to adapt to an overall trend of falling sea levels , not with-standing the modest increase of perhaps 36 cm over the last 100 years – as reported by the United Nation ’ s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Britomart and Myrmidon today are flat topped and mostly dead , as they are eroded peaks now just below mean low tide growing back after bleaching events , to be smashed again by the huge waves that come with the cyclones .
Coral cover at the crests , which is the most exposed part of the reef , is generally sparser and the corals stumpy , while only a few metres further down under the water it is sometimes possible to find delicate plate corals , at Myrmidon perhaps regrowing since the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generalize about a coral reef , when there is such diversity within and between habitats even at the same reef .
It was on the second dive at Myrmidon , that we found the garden of Porites .
That was a highlight of the week at sea for me .
I had gone in search of Porites .
I had no idea whether I would find them or not .
At Myrmidon we found a whole garden of Porites – massive corals in different colours and each so healthy .
In the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavenly-white Acropora – so tall , and each branch had a florescent blue tip .
Little Chromis fish ( Damsel fish ) trimmed in yellow , swam in and out .
The skipper , Rob , had warned me in the weeks leading up to the expedition that there was no guarantee we would get all the way to Myrmidon in our 14-metre boat .
It all depended on the weather , he said .
Last Wednesday , a week ago , Rob not only got us to Myrmidon , but we found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ waters .
Stuart and Rob made the decision about where to anchor for the second dive , they found me the garden of Porites .
There were perhaps 50 of these massive boulder-shaped corals many more than 2 metres in diameter not far from the boat and at just 8 metres below the water .
Perhaps there are another 50 gardens of Porites at Myrmidon reef ?
That can be my hypothesis !
If only we had the resources to stay , search and survey we could perhaps find as many massive Porites @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on each of the ships ( 50 ) that sailed with Achilles to defeated Hector in the ancient Greek tale – that would make 500 massive Porites just at Myrmidon reef !
And Myrmidon is just one of nearly 3,000 coral reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef .
There are certainly enough massive Porites still alive for scientists at the Australian Institute of Marine Science ( AIMS ) , to calculate an average coral growth rate for the Great Barrier Reef over the last 100 to 300 years – as they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inner , middle and outer reefs including Myrmidon .
They stopped coring the Porites at Myrmidon more than 15 years ago .
We only found the one shark at Myrmidon – a small and curious white tipped reef shark that tasted Stuart ’ s flipper on the second dive , and almost head-butted Shaun at the beginning of their night dive .
These sharks ( Triaenodon obesus ) are more curious than aggressive , which may explain why numbers have apparently declined over the last few decades – apparently as a minor bycatch @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The last attempt to properly quantify their numbers is documented in a PhD thesis by William Robins published back in 2006 .
He claims fishing is the problem .
I ’ ve heard so many stories about shark finning , even in Great Barrier Reef waters as far south as Lady Elliot Island .
Finning involves removing the dorsal , pelvic , pectoral and caudal fins and then throwing the live shark back into the water – where it can only sink to the bottom and die .
Best estimates suggest 73 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each year across the world to make soup for rich Asians .
There is so much money from the long-suffering Australian tax payer , via the Australian government , for activist scientists claiming the reef is at risk of climate change , but very little political will to address any of the many threats to sharks in Great Barrier Reef waters .
Yet the evidence suggests shark numbers are in decline , not only from finning but also drumlines set by the Queensland government , ostensibly to protect those who swim at north @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go back to Pixie Reef , just to the north east of Cairns , in early February to finishing filming for the documentary about our week at sea – last week .
In the new year , I want to film some more at Pixie Reef , including Shaun swimming with the resident white-tipped reef shark that Stuart often sees there .
The reefs at Myrmidon , Normanby , High Island and Pixie have so many old Porites , but so few reef sharks .
Working from evidence – including the photographic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the photographs taken by Shaun along the underwater transects set by Stuart , and from Stuart ’ s drone photography in the air above , for at least two different habitat types at each of the reef we visited – I hope there can one day be more agreement about the current state of the corals at the Great Barrier Reef .
It would certainly be helpful if some of the many scientists at AIMS returned in one of their big ships to Myrmidon and cored at least a few of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recommence the program of coring , beginning at Myrmidon , to test the hypothesis that as water temperatures increase coral growth rates will increase too .
This could be determined from the annual growth rings once the cores were in the laboratory and under X-ray .
I would also sleep better knowing that there was funding to monitor white-tipped reef sharks .
At the moment , about 600 sharks are killed each year on drumlines including reef sharks , then there is the by-catch from the legal fisheries , and then there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a market .
I surmise that the corals are not threatened by global warming , certainly not by sea level rise , but that the few remaining sharks at Myrmidon , and many other reefs , are at risk from those intent on defeating them , or eating their fins .
Indeed , I ’ m hoping that as Achilles slayed Hector with the help of the Myrmidons , we can begin to acknowledge the hubris of trying to tame Zeus/the weather , while mercilessly denying everything good that sharks represent , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ check , so that the algae-eating fish can thrive .
************** The feature image , at the very top of this blog post , is of our boat Kiama as we arrived at Myrmidon reef .
The skipper , Rob McCulloch , has put some unedited aerial drone footage taken by Stuart of our boat , Kiama , sailing into Myrmidon , at his YouTube page , here : https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=jLtN4deEi10 I am so grateful to the B. Macfie Family Foundation and the Institute of Public Affairs ( IPA ) @ @ @ @ @

It is often reported that the Great Barrier Reef is half dead, specifically that the corals are bleached, and the water quality is degraded with pesticides and plastics. If I didn’t know better, I might never want to visit a coral reef, lest I be forced to confront this reality – apparently all our fault. Except the coral reefs that I dived last week each made me feel so alive, and in awe of their extraordinary beauty – especially Myrmidon reef which is an ancient and detached coral reef that juts out into the Pacific Ocean on the eastern edge of the Great Barrier Reef. But we didn’t see many sharks.
The coral reef called Myrmidon is perhaps as old as the city of Troy. In mythology, that city existed about 5,000 years ago and it was attacked by Achilles and 50 ships each carrying 50 Myrmidons. Paleo-climatologists will argue that that geological period, known as the middle Holocene (7,000 to 4,500 years ago), was much warmer than the present with sea levels at least 1.5 metres higher than they are today along the east coast of Australia including at the Great Barrier Reef.
Perhaps everything seemed unusually magical last Wednesday at Myrmidon because I dived into such crystal-clear water, and it was so sunny. Looking back over the video footage, Myrmidon reef did not have particularly luxurious corals, but there was an iridescence and a beauty that I’ve not seen before. It was so evident that the live corals were growing on-top of dead corals, not one or two generations dead, but representing thousands of years of growth and destruction from cyclones and bleaching events. The reef was unashamedly beautiful yet with so much exposed that represented layers and layers of dead coral. The regrowth was so clearly on eroded antecedent surfaces.
Where we first jumped in at Myrmidon, the coral was sparse and stunted and there were piles of coral rubble some newly dead and covered in green algae. My dive-buddy Shaun, and underwater videographer Stuart, swam with me around a ledge that led us down into an underwater canyon. Green parrot fish swam metres above a giant clam with an ink black body speckled with florescent blue zooxanthellae. I knelt beside it, I was 17 metres under-the-water and feeling part of another world. Stuart was not too far away, deciding which of the massive Porites along the walls of the canyon we would measure, and Shaun would photograph – then we ran the photographic transect.
Porites are the old boulder corals, which like the oldest trees in temperate forests, can be cored to reveal a climate history. I was not at Myrmidon to core the Porites, but just to find out if any still existed and to measure and photograph them – as well as running the photographic transects. But really, I just wanted to sit next to the black clam speckled blue, which had thick olive-green shiny lips and watch it breathe and feed through its two siphons.
We cruised a total of 263 nautical miles (nearly 500 kilometres) last week in search of the old corals, the Porites.
We left Cairns on Saturday 28th December, and spent the first night moored behind Russell Island, which is part of the Franklin Island Group just to the east of the town of Babinda. On the first day we dived the fringing reef of High Island, the next day Normanby, and after that Britomart. There were so many massive Porites at the reef fringing High Island and also at Normanby. We didn’t find any Porites at Britomart. That was perhaps because we only had an afternoon to search, and I made the wrong calls in terms of where we should jump-in, which is perhaps why we didn’t find any Porites at Britomart.
At the first dive site at Britomart, which had been my call, there were huge plate corals under-the-water that I had mistaken as Porites from above the water. These corals were mostly dead, probably from a severe bleaching back in 2016 and then 2017.
But it wasn’t all death and destruction at Britomart. At the second site, where only Stuart jumped-in to the strong current with just his snorkel, he found and filmed large plate corals – so alive. There was some extraordinary biodiversity at Britomart including a school of black Dory – there was also evidence of severe bleaching. We only saw a single white tipped reef shark at that reef.
Every reef that we dived was so variable and each of the different habitats at Pixie, Britomart and Myrmidon had a different ensemble of coral species and forms. But at each reef we only found a single shark. Each of these reefs had a distinct reef crest that might have been more luxurious, and with better coral cover, some 5,000 years ago at the time of the mythical Myrmidons – simply because back then these reefs would have been younger and growing up with the sea level that was higher back then, the corals having grown-up 120 metres since the depth of the last ice age which was just 16,000 years ago. Since at least 2,500 years ago these coral reefs have had to adapt to an overall trend of falling sea levels, not with-standing the modest increase of perhaps 36 cm over the last 100 years – as reported by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The reef crests at Britomart and Myrmidon today are flat topped and mostly dead, as they are eroded peaks now just below mean low tide growing back after bleaching events, to be smashed again by the huge waves that come with the cyclones.
Coral cover at the crests, which is the most exposed part of the reef, is generally sparser and the corals stumpy, while only a few metres further down under the water it is sometimes possible to find delicate plate corals, at Myrmidon perhaps regrowing since the last cyclone. It is so difficult to generalize about a coral reef, when there is such diversity within and between habitats even at the same reef.
It was on the second dive at Myrmidon, that we found the garden of Porites. That was a highlight of the week at sea for me. I had gone in search of Porites. I had no idea whether I would find them or not. At Myrmidon we found a whole garden of Porites – massive corals in different colours and each so healthy. In the same coral garden were blue and also a heavenly-white Acropora – so tall, and each branch had a florescent blue tip. Little Chromis fish (Damsel fish) trimmed in yellow, swam in and out.
The skipper, Rob, had warned me in the weeks leading up to the expedition that there was no guarantee we would get all the way to Myrmidon in our 14-metre boat. It all depended on the weather, he said.
Last Wednesday, a week ago, Rob not only got us to Myrmidon, but we found so many Porites and in crystal clear waters.
Stuart and Rob made the decision about where to anchor for the second dive, they found me the garden of Porites. There were perhaps 50 of these massive boulder-shaped corals many more than 2 metres in diameter not far from the boat and at just 8 metres below the water. Perhaps there are another 50 gardens of Porites at Myrmidon reef? That can be my hypothesis!
If only we had the resources to stay, search and survey we could perhaps find as many massive Porites as there were Myrmidons (50) on each of the ships (50) that sailed with Achilles to defeated Hector in the ancient Greek tale – that would make 500 massive Porites just at Myrmidon reef! And Myrmidon is just one of nearly 3,000 coral reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef.
There are certainly enough massive Porites still alive for scientists at the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), to calculate an average coral growth rate for the Great Barrier Reef over the last 100 to 300 years – as they used to do by coring Porites from inner, middle and outer reefs including Myrmidon. They stopped coring the Porites at Myrmidon more than 15 years ago.
We only found the one shark at Myrmidon – a small and curious white tipped reef shark that tasted Stuart’s flipper on the second dive, and almost head-butted Shaun at the beginning of their night dive. These sharks (Triaenodon obesus) are more curious than aggressive, which may explain why numbers have apparently declined over the last few decades – apparently as a minor bycatch of the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery. The last attempt to properly quantify their numbers is documented in a PhD thesis by William Robins published back in 2006. He claims fishing is the problem.
I’ve heard so many stories about shark finning, even in Great Barrier Reef waters as far south as Lady Elliot Island. Finning involves removing the dorsal, pelvic, pectoral and caudal fins and then throwing the live shark back into the water – where it can only sink to the bottom and die. Best estimates suggest 73 million (!) sharks are finned each year across the world to make soup for rich Asians.
There is so much money from the long-suffering Australian tax payer, via the Australian government, for activist scientists claiming the reef is at risk of climate change, but very little political will to address any of the many threats to sharks in Great Barrier Reef waters. Yet the evidence suggests shark numbers are in decline, not only from finning but also drumlines set by the Queensland government, ostensibly to protect those who swim at north Queensland beaches.
I’m hoping to go back to Pixie Reef, just to the north east of Cairns, in early February to finishing filming for the documentary about our week at sea – last week. In the new year, I want to film some more at Pixie Reef, including Shaun swimming with the resident white-tipped reef shark that Stuart often sees there.
The reefs at Myrmidon, Normanby, High Island and Pixie have so many old Porites, but so few reef sharks.
Working from evidence – including the photographic evidence amassed by us last week, from the photographs taken by Shaun along the underwater transects set by Stuart, and from Stuart’s drone photography in the air above, for at least two different habitat types at each of the reef we visited – I hope there can one day be more agreement about the current state of the corals at the Great Barrier Reef. It would certainly be helpful if some of the many scientists at AIMS returned in one of their big ships to Myrmidon and cored at least a few of the many massive old Porites. They could recommence the program of coring, beginning at Myrmidon, to test the hypothesis that as water temperatures increase coral growth rates will increase too. This could be determined from the annual growth rings once the cores were in the laboratory and under X-ray.
I would also sleep better knowing that there was funding to monitor white-tipped reef sharks. At the moment, about 600 sharks are killed each year on drumlines including reef sharks, then there is the by-catch from the legal fisheries, and then there are those who fin sharks because there is a market.
I surmise that the corals are not threatened by global warming, certainly not by sea level rise, but that the few remaining sharks at Myrmidon, and many other reefs, are at risk from those intent on defeating them, or eating their fins. Indeed, I’m hoping that as Achilles slayed Hector with the help of the Myrmidons, we can begin to acknowledge the hubris of trying to tame Zeus/the weather, while mercilessly denying everything good that sharks represent, including being curious and keeping mid-level predators in check, so that the algae-eating fish can thrive.
**************
The feature image, at the very top of this blog post, is of our boat Kiama as we arrived at Myrmidon reef. The skipper, Rob McCulloch, has put some unedited aerial drone footage taken by Stuart of our boat, Kiama, sailing into Myrmidon, at his YouTube page, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLtN4deEi10
I am so grateful to the B. Macfie Family Foundation and the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) for funding the expedition.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--HURRICANE SEASON 2020 UPDATE (11/29/2020)

The 2020 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin is the most active in history with 30 named storms , breaking the previous record set in 2005 ( which had 28 ) .
6 storms were major storms including Iota , setting a record for the latest Major hurricane .
The Gulf and Central America were hard hit , reminiscent of the 1988 to 1900 period ( see ) .
Despite the busy Atlantic , the Pacific was quiet and the hemisphere as a whole had a quieter than normal ( 80 % of normal ) season .
The ACE of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the top year 1933 .
An active season was expected -‐ several factors pointed to it .
LA NINA AND LOW SHEAR IN THE ATLANTIC We have a La Nina in place .
Gerry Bell showed how La Ninas produce fewer east Pacific storms and less shear to the east which favors more Atlantic storms .
Weak easterly shear is seen in the Main Development region and Caribbean consistent with persistent La Nina Pacific suppression .
2017 was a no shear year with a much higher ACE ( ranked 7th with 224.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Strong westerly shear was seen from 2014 to 2016 .
The pressure anomalies reflect the low pressure and storm tracks beneath the 40N ridge .
The warm Atlantic not surprisingly generates more storms .
In the figure above , the red columns represent the seasonal AMO and black lines the number of Atlantic names storms Hodges and Elsner ( FSU ) found low solar led to colder high atmosphere favoring more instability and perhaps stronger storms .
Indeed check out the 100mb temperature anomalies since July in the Atlantic Basin including the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perfect storm ’ in the Atlantic Basin with a La Nina leading to low vertical shear , the warm mode of the AMO providing more heat energy and low solar leading to a colder high atmosphere and greater instability .
Even with the large number of storms and 6 majors , the ACE index still trails years like 2017 and 2005 and 10 others .
Not every meteorologist believes 2020 holds the record for most named storms .
Due to advances in technology , forecasters are able to identify smaller subtropical storms that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ When one wants to do a fair comparison of storms now versus storms in the past , you really have to be careful about how to interpret the raw number , ” Christopher Landsea , chief of the tropical analysis and forecast branch at the National Hurricane Center , said , according to the New York Times .
“ There has been a lot of hype about the record number of storms and , yes , it ’ s been a busy year .
There have been horrific impacts .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer is no.
” The ACE supports that .
And the decadal trend for landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes has been down .
• Yes most named storms in the Atlantic .
Weatherbell underdone on total names • Yes highest impact year on the US coast ( no surprise as we made a huge deal about that from April ) • ACE at 180 within our ACE range from March !
13th highest on recordBTW another abysmal year by the Euro models .
We put out that ACE in March .
At that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of average • Here is where it gets interesting : ACE/Storm was 6 ranking DEAD LAST way back in Last as far as ACE/Storm .
How bad was it ?
The AVERAGE ACE/STORM in the other 21 seasons was 12 !
The closest to this year was another mega named year 2005 but that was a respectable 9 • Some of these should not have been named or would not have been in previous years .
Now if you don ’ t want to accept that fine , but it means more storms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ astounding to see the ace/storm HALF the average of the all the other samples.But it gets worse as far as the hype : • The total ignoring of the lack of activity in the Pacific Basin and globally .
I keep hearing global this and global that which of course applies only if one is going to ignore the fact that the number one area for ACE ( Pacific ) was so far below normal -‐ Western Pacific was 52 % , the eastern Pacific 56 % .
The total ACE between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so far , ACE there was 226 .
So the basin with 4 times the normal of Atlantic , is only 50 % of its normal !
For the northern hemisphere was 80 % of normal .
So even with the hyper Atlantic season .
GLOBALLY we were BELOW average .
So there is no question the impact of the western hemisphere is a huge record breaking deal , and should be talked about , But if you want perspective and the whole picture , there is plenty to counter the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kind of atmospheric apocalypse , But you have to look and if you do , you will see that there is plenty to talk about on the other side of the coin .
Of course the coin that is flipped when it comes to pushing ideas today always seem to come up one way .

Joe D’Aleo CCM, Weatherbell.com
The 2020 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin is the most active in history with 30 named storms, breaking the previous record set in 2005 (which had 28). 6 storms were major storms including Iota, setting a record for the latest Major hurricane.
The Gulf and Central America were hard hit, reminiscent of the 1988 to 1900 period (see).
Despite the busy Atlantic, the Pacific was quiet and the hemisphere as a whole had a quieter than normal (80% of normal) season.
The ACE of 179.8 ranks 13th behind 2017 and 2005 and the top year 1933.
An active season was expected -‐ several factors pointed to it. LA NINA AND LOW SHEAR IN THE ATLANTIC
We have a La Nina in place.
Gerry Bell showed how La Ninas produce fewer east Pacific storms and less shear to the east which favors more Atlantic storms.
Weak easterly shear is seen in the Main Development region and Caribbean consistent with persistent La Nina Pacific suppression.
2017 was a no shear year with a much higher ACE (ranked 7th with
224.9 versus 179.8 so far in 2020). Strong westerly shear was seen from 2014 to 2016.
The pressure anomalies reflect the low pressure and storm tracks beneath the 40N ridge.
WARM ATLANTIC MODE OF THE AMO
The Atlantic is warm.
The warm Atlantic not surprisingly generates more storms.
In the figure above, the red columns represent the seasonal AMO and black lines the number of Atlantic names storms
LOW SOLAR AND COLD HIGH ATMOSPHERE
Hodges and Elsner (FSU) found low solar led to colder high atmosphere favoring more instability and perhaps stronger storms.
Indeed check out the 100mb temperature anomalies since July in the Atlantic Basin including the Caribbean.
So we had the ‘perfect storm’ in the Atlantic Basin with a La Nina leading to low vertical shear, the warm mode of the AMO providing more heat energy and low solar leading to a colder high atmosphere and greater instability. Even with the large number of storms and 6 majors, the ACE index still trails years like 2017 and 2005 and 10 others.
NOT UNPRECEDENTED
Not every meteorologist believes 2020 holds the record for most named storms. Due to advances in technology, forecasters are able to identify smaller subtropical storms that may have gone unnoticed in the past.
“When one wants to do a fair comparison of storms now versus storms in the past, you really have to be careful about how to interpret the raw number,” Christopher Landsea, chief of the tropical analysis and forecast branch at the National Hurricane Center, said, according to the New York Times. “There has been a lot of hype about the record number of storms and, yes, it’s been a busy year. There have been horrific impacts. But is this really a record? The answer is no.”
The ACE supports that. And the decadal trend for landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes has been down.
Weatherbell’s hurricane lead Guru Joe Bastardi commented on the season.
Summing Up the N Hemisphere Tropical Season
Yes most named storms in the Atlantic. Weatherbell underdone on total names Yes highest impact year on the US coast (no surprise as we made a huge deal about that from April) ACE at 180 within our ACE range from March! 13th highest on recordBTW another abysmal year by the Euro models. We put out that ACE in March. At that time the Euro was forecasting 80% of average Here is where it gets interesting: ACE/Storm was 6 ranking DEAD LAST way back in Last as far as ACE/Storm. How bad was it? The AVERAGE ACE/STORM in the other 21 seasons was 12! The closest to this year was another mega named year 2005 but that was a respectable 9
The obvious conclusion is 2 fold,
Some of these should not have been named or would not have been in previous years. Now if you don’t want to accept that fine, but it means more storms, but weaker. It is absolutely astounding to see the ace/storm HALF the average of the all the other samples.But it gets worse as far as the hype: The total ignoring of the lack of activity in the Pacific Basin and globally.
I keep hearing global this and global that which of course applies only if one is going to ignore the fact that the number one area for ACE (Pacific) was so far below normal -‐ Western Pacific was 52%, the eastern Pacific 56%.
The total ACE between the two is normally 426. This year, so far, ACE there was 226. So the basin with 4 times the normal of Atlantic, is only 50% of its normal! For the northern hemisphere was 80% of normal. So even with the hyper Atlantic season.
GLOBALLY we were BELOW average.
So there is no question the impact of the western hemisphere is a huge record breaking deal, and should be talked about, But if you want perspective and the whole picture, there is plenty to counter the idea that this is an example of some kind of atmospheric apocalypse, But you have to look and if you do, you will see that there is plenty to talk about on the other side of the coin.
Of course the coin that is flipped when it comes to pushing ideas today always seem to come up one way.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Sea surface skin temperature

Sea surface skin temperature

In previous posts , see here and here , I ’ ve tried to show that because the oceans cover 71 % of Earth and they contain 99 % of the thermal energy stored on the Earth ’ s surface , they dominate the speed and magnitude of climate changes .
In all my posts the Earth ’ s surface is defined as everything from the ocean floor to the top of the atmosphere .
The details of the calculation of ocean and atmospheric heat content is detailed in this spreadsheet .
The ocean ’ s huge heat capacity prevents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those that do occur .
Attempting to show the direction , speed , and magnitude of climate change by measuring and averaging atmospheric surface temperatures is pointless , in my opinion .
The record we have of atmospheric and ocean surface temperatures is too short and far too inaccurate to provide us with useful trends on a climatic ( 30 years + ) time scale .
Further , these records are sporadic measurements in a chaotic surface zone that has large temperature swings .
In Montana , United States , for example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as -70°F ( -57°C ) and as high as 117°F ( 47°C ) .
These enormous swings make measuring year-to-year global average differences of 0.1°C exceedingly difficult .
Yet , this is the precision demanded if we are to properly characterize a climate that is only warming at a rate of roughly 1.4°C/century , which is 0.014°C per year and 0.14°C/decade .
The measurements are especially useful for predicting the weather but are inappropriate for measuring changes of less than half of a degree over climatic time spans .
We need to measure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this purpose .
This post and the next one present evidence that the mixed layer in the ocean seems to be well suited to the task .
In my opinion , to get a proper handle on the direction and speed of global warming , we must look to temperature changes in the ocean .
Especially those portions of the ocean that are in constant contact with the atmosphere .
Very long-time frame climate change , one-thousand years plus , involves the entire ocean .
But for time frames of one-hundred years or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the upper few hundred meters of the ocean .
The temperature profile of the upper ocean is very complex .
This is complicated by the poor quality of our ocean-surface temperature measurements , especially prior to the introduction of Argo floats and modern ocean buoy measurements , like the Triton buoys over the last 20 years .
Ships cover a limited area of the ocean and the depth , consistency and quality of their temperature measurements are uncertain .
Satellite measurements of the very top of the ocean are possible , but these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ocean skin effect .
At the ocean-air interface , temperatures change rapidly .
The magnitude of the change and the thickness of the uppermost ocean affected is determined by cloudiness , whether it is night or day , and wind speed .
This “ skin ” is thicker on calm cloudless days and thinner at night and on windy cloudy days .
The temperature at the ocean-air interface ( “ SST ” ) is what is measured by radiometers and satellites .
Unfortunately , the relationship between this temperature and the more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperature is unknown .
The relationship changes rapidly and is complicated .
Various models have been proposed ( Horrocks , O ’ Carroll , Candy , Nightingale , & Harris , 2003 ) , but none have the reliability and accuracy required .
To make matters worse , right at the surface there is a population of cyanobacteria that works to change the temperature and lower the salinity of the surface water ( Wurl , et al.
, 2018 ) .
The sea surface temperature problem is best illustrated with the diagram in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature .
They are striving to understand the ocean skin layer so that satellite sea-surface temperature measurements can be properly combined with measured ocean temperatures .
The temperature difference between the SST and the stable portion of the mixed layer can be three to six degrees daily ( Wick & Castro , 2020 ) .
As Gary Wick and Sandra Castro explain : The temperatures in the quote are given in Kelvin ( K ) , and equivalent to degrees Celsius .
The main point is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occur in calm conditions on clear ( cloudless ) days .
Figure 1 shows that the temperature increases can affect water as deep as ten meters .
But differences of more than 0.5°C are almost always limited to the top meter of the ocean .
As we will see in the next post on the mixed layer , these known skin anomalies are ignored in ocean temperature datasets .
They often have a measurement labeled as zero depth , but it is taken under the surface , usually at a depth of 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is often defined as the temperature of the layer that has a temperature within 0.5°C of the surface temperature ( Levitus , 1982 ) .
This is not precise , what they mean is the temperature of the ocean just under the surface , perhaps 20 to 100 cm .
Except on clear windless days , this will be the “ foundation ” temperature .
At night and on cloudy or windy days , the temperature will always be the “ foundation ” temperature .
The mixed layer has homogenous properties due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limit of 0.5°C is a convenient definition , but it breaks down near the poles in the winter where a more complex definition is needed .
Numerous methods have been proposed , too many to list here , but the complex one described by James Holte and Lynne Talley ( Holte & Talley , 2008 ) is currently favored .
Their technique is widely used today to choose a “ mixed-layer depth , ” which is the bottom of the mixed layer .
It is necessary because in the polar regions , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by surface heat loss , can mix the water column to 2000 meters or even deeper .
As we will see in the next post , it is in these areas that thermal energy from the surface is transmitted to the deep ocean .
There are many ocean temperature datasets , and we will discuss the data from several of them in the next post .
Figure 2 is a plot of the global average December ocean temperatures from the surface to 140 meters from the University of Hamburg datasets .
This plot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussed , with real global data .
The temperatures reported by the University of Hamburg are average temperatures over more than 12 years and do not represent any given year .
The NOAA MIMOC temperatures , which we will look at in the next post , are the same .
Figure 3 shows the average year of the measurements and the standard deviation of the years .
Both the University of Hamburg and NOAA recognize that the Argo data , which is the bulk of their raw data , is sparse .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and longitude ( ~32,913 sq .
miles at 40° North or South or 84,916 sq .
km . )
This float sends one complete profile to us every ten days .
The University and NOAA have decided that to combat the paucity of data , they should compile monthly averages of all data they could find .
As we will see in the next post the big changes in the mixed layer occur by month and location , so this makes some sense .
Above the foundation or mixed layer , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These are defined by GHRSST as follows .
I ’ ve edited the GHRSST text for clarity , the original text can be viewed here .
At the exact air-sea interface a hypothetical temperature called the interface temperature ( SSTint ) is defined although this is of no practical use because it can not be measured using current technology .
The skin temperature ( SSTskin ) is defined as the temperature measured by an infrared radiometer typically operating at wavelengths 3.7-12 µm ( chosen for consistency with the majority of infrared satellite measurements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conductive diffusion-dominated sub-layer at a depth of ~10-20 micrometers .
SSTskin measurements are subject to a large potential diurnal cycle including cool skin layer effects ( especially at night under clear skies and low wind speed conditions ) and warm layer effects in the daytime .
The subskin temperature ( SSTsubskin ) represents the temperature at the base of the conductive laminar sub-layer of the ocean surface .
For practical purposes , SSTsubskin can be well approximated to the measurement of surface temperature by a microwave radiometer operating in the 6-11 GHz frequency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ direct nor invariant to changing physical conditions or to the specific geometry of the microwave measurements .
The surface temperature at depth ( SSTz or SSTdepth )  All measurements of water temperature beneath the SSTsubskin are referred to as depth temperatures ( SSTdepth ) measured using a wide variety of platforms and sensors such as drifting buoys , vertical profiling floats ( like Argo ) , or deep thermistor chains at depths ranging from 10 to 750m ( like Triton and Tao ) .
These temperature observations are distinct from those obtained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SSTsubskin ) and must be qualified by a measurement depth in meters .
The foundation SST , SSTfnd , is the temperature free of diurnal ( daily ) temperature variability .
That is , the top of the stable portion of the mixed layer .
Only in situ contact thermometry can measure SSTfnd .
In summary , SST and atmospheric surface temperatures are too affected by weather and diurnal variability to measure climate changes with any reliability or precision .
Total ocean or deep ocean temperatures give us a hint at long climatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but they tell us little about changes in the one-hundred-year range .
The ocean mixed layer is a zone that begins between one millimeter and roughly ten meters below the ocean surface .
Above this depth , temperatures are affected minute-by minute by the atmosphere and sunlight .
At night , the top of the mixed layer moves closer to the surface but can be affected by windspeed , precipitation , and cloudiness .
Below the top of the mixed layer , the temperature is more stable than the atmosphere and ocean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and density of the layer is nearly constant from the top to the bottom due to turbulence .
It reflects surface temperatures but is a function of an average of the previous several weeks .
The thickness of the mixed layer varies seasonally from a few tens of meters to several hundred meters .
We will discuss the mixed layer in much more detail in the next post .
None of this is in my new book Politics and Climate Change : A History but buy it anyway .
You can download the @ @ @

By Andy May
In previous posts, see here and here, I’ve tried to show that because the oceans cover 71% of Earth and they contain 99% of the thermal energy stored on the Earth’s surface, they dominate the speed and magnitude of climate changes. In all my posts the Earth’s surface is defined as everything from the ocean floor to the top of the atmosphere. The details of the calculation of ocean and atmospheric heat content is detailed in this spreadsheet. The ocean’s huge heat capacity prevents large temperature swings and dampens and delays those that do occur.
Attempting to show the direction, speed, and magnitude of climate change by measuring and averaging atmospheric surface temperatures is pointless, in my opinion. The record we have of atmospheric and ocean surface temperatures is too short and far too inaccurate to provide us with useful trends on a climatic (30 years +) time scale. Further, these records are sporadic measurements in a chaotic surface zone that has large temperature swings. In Montana, United States, for example, recent minimum/maximum temperatures have been as low as -70°F (-57°C) and as high as 117°F (47°C). These enormous swings make measuring year-to-year global average differences of 0.1°C exceedingly difficult. Yet, this is the precision demanded if we are to properly characterize a climate that is only warming at a rate of roughly 1.4°C/century, which is 0.014°C per year and 0.14°C/decade.
The measurements are especially useful for predicting the weather but are inappropriate for measuring changes of less than half of a degree over climatic time spans. We need to measure something more stable and less chaotic for this purpose. This post and the next one present evidence that the mixed layer in the ocean seems to be well suited to the task.
In my opinion, to get a proper handle on the direction and speed of global warming, we must look to temperature changes in the ocean. Especially those portions of the ocean that are in constant contact with the atmosphere. Very long-time frame climate change, one-thousand years plus, involves the entire ocean. But for time frames of one-hundred years or less, we are dealing mostly with the upper few hundred meters of the ocean.
The temperature profile of the upper ocean is very complex. This is complicated by the poor quality of our ocean-surface temperature measurements, especially prior to the introduction of Argo floats and modern ocean buoy measurements, like the Triton buoys over the last 20 years. Ships cover a limited area of the ocean and the depth, consistency and quality of their temperature measurements are uncertain. Satellite measurements of the very top of the ocean are possible, but these measurements are complicated by what is called the ocean skin effect.
The Ocean Skin

At the ocean-air interface, temperatures change rapidly. The magnitude of the change and the thickness of the uppermost ocean affected is determined by cloudiness, whether it is night or day, and wind speed. This “skin” is thicker on calm cloudless days and thinner at night and on windy cloudy days. The temperature at the ocean-air interface (“SST”) is what is measured by radiometers and satellites. Unfortunately, the relationship between this temperature and the more stable mixed-layer temperature or “foundation” temperature is unknown. The relationship changes rapidly and is complicated. Various models have been proposed (Horrocks, O’Carroll, Candy, Nightingale, & Harris, 2003), but none have the reliability and accuracy required.
To make matters worse, right at the surface there is a population of cyanobacteria that works to change the temperature and lower the salinity of the surface water (Wurl, et al., 2018). The sea surface temperature problem is best illustrated with the diagram in Figure 1, from GHRSST or the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature. They are striving to understand the ocean skin layer so that satellite sea-surface temperature measurements can be properly combined with measured ocean temperatures.
Figure 1. The GHRSST diagram of the temperature at the ocean surface. Theocean conditions, especially the wind speed and daytime or nighttime can make a 2.5°C difference, or larger, in the temperature gradient from the surface to the foundation (stable portion of the mixed layer) temperature. The depth to the top of the stable portion of the mixed layer can vary from essentially zero to 10 meters. Source: GHRSST.
The temperature difference between the SST and the stable portion of the mixed layer can be three to six degrees daily (Wick & Castro, 2020). As Gary Wick and Sandra Castro explain:
“The daily cycle of solar radiation leads to periodic heating of the near-surface layer of the ocean. At low wind speeds, turbulent mixing is reduced, and a warm layer and diurnal thermocline can form near the ocean surface during the day. At night, mixing typically erodes this layer. While the amplitude of diurnal warming is relatively small on average [0.5 K], under conditions of very low wind speed and sufficient insolation, the warming at the surface sensed by satellites can be highly significant… In situ observations have shown warming in excess of 5K at depths of 0.3–0.6 m. Satellite observations from multiple sensors have observed extreme warming events up to 7K in magnitude at the surface, and it has been suggested that events exceeding 5K are not infrequent.” (Wick & Castro, 2020)
The temperatures in the quote are given in Kelvin (K), and equivalent to degrees Celsius. The main point is that exceptionally large differences in the ocean SST occur in calm conditions on clear (cloudless) days. Figure 1 shows that the temperature increases can affect water as deep as ten meters. But differences of more than 0.5°C are almost always limited to the top meter of the ocean. As we will see in the next post on the mixed layer, these known skin anomalies are ignored in ocean temperature datasets. They often have a measurement labeled as zero depth, but it is taken under the surface, usually at a depth of 20 cm or more. The mixed-layer temperature is often defined as the temperature of the layer that has a temperature within 0.5°C of the surface temperature (Levitus, 1982). This is not precise, what they mean is the temperature of the ocean just under the surface, perhaps 20 to 100 cm. Except on clear windless days, this will be the “foundation” temperature. At night and on cloudy or windy days, the temperature will always be the “foundation” temperature.
The mixed layer has homogenous properties due to turbulent mixing and using a temperature difference limit of 0.5°C is a convenient definition, but it breaks down near the poles in the winter where a more complex definition is needed. Numerous methods have been proposed, too many to list here, but the complex one described by James Holte and Lynne Talley (Holte & Talley, 2008) is currently favored. Their technique is widely used today to choose a “mixed-layer depth,” which is the bottom of the mixed layer. It is necessary because in the polar regions, in the winter, deep convection, driven by surface heat loss, can mix the water column to 2000 meters or even deeper. As we will see in the next post, it is in these areas that thermal energy from the surface is transmitted to the deep ocean.
There are many ocean temperature datasets, and we will discuss the data from several of them in the next post. Figure 2 is a plot of the global average December ocean temperatures from the surface to 140 meters from the University of Hamburg datasets. This plot illustrates the temperature profile terms we have discussed, with real global data.
Figure 2. Global average December temperature profile from the surface to 140 meters. This graph shows the “foundation” temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature is close to constant from the surface to about 20 meters, then begins to decline. Once it is 0.5°C different from the temperature just below the surface, the “mixed layer depth” is reached. Data source: University of Hamburg.
The temperatures reported by the University of Hamburg are average temperatures over more than 12 years and do not represent any given year. The NOAA MIMOC temperatures, which we will look at in the next post, are the same. Figure 3 shows the average year of the measurements and the standard deviation of the years.
Figure 3. The data used in Figure 2 is not from a single year, but the average of data from over 12 years. The central year for each depth is shown in blue (left scale) and the standard deviation of all years used is shown in orange (right scale). Data source: University of Hamburg.
Both the University of Hamburg and NOAA recognize that the Argo data, which is the bulk of their raw data, is sparse. There is one float per 3° of latitude and longitude (~32,913 sq. miles at 40° North or South or 84,916 sq. km.) This float sends one complete profile to us every ten days. The University and NOAA have decided that to combat the paucity of data, they should compile monthly averages of all data they could find. As we will see in the next post the big changes in the mixed layer occur by month and location, so this makes some sense.
Above the foundation or mixed layer, there are other zones identified in Figure 1. These are defined by GHRSST as follows. I’ve edited the GHRSST text for clarity, the original text can be viewed here.
The interface temperature (SSTint)

At the exact air-sea interface a hypothetical temperature called the interface temperature (SSTint) is defined although this is of no practical use because it cannot be measured using current technology.
The skin sea surface temperature (SSTskin)

The skin temperature (SSTskin) is defined as the temperature measured by an infrared radiometer typically operating at wavelengths 3.7-12 µm (chosen for consistency with the majority of infrared satellite measurements) that represents the temperature within the conductive diffusion-dominated sub-layer at a depth of ~10-20 micrometers. SSTskin measurements are subject to a large potential diurnal cycle including cool skin layer effects (especially at night under clear skies and low wind speed conditions) and warm layer effects in the daytime.
The sub-skin sea surface temperature (SSTsub-skin)

The subskin temperature (SSTsubskin) represents the temperature at the base of the conductive laminar sub-layer of the ocean surface. For practical purposes, SSTsubskin can be well approximated to the measurement of surface temperature by a microwave radiometer operating in the 6-11 GHz frequency range, but the relationship is neither direct nor invariant to changing physical conditions or to the specific geometry of the microwave measurements.
The surface temperature at depth (SSTz or SSTdepth)

All measurements of water temperature beneath the SSTsubskin are referred to as depth temperatures (SSTdepth) measured using a wide variety of platforms and sensors such as drifting buoys, vertical profiling floats (like Argo), or deep thermistor chains at depths ranging from 10 to 750m (like Triton and Tao). These temperature observations are distinct from those obtained using remote sensing techniques (SSTskin and SSTsubskin) and must be qualified by a measurement depth in meters.
The foundation temperature (SSTfnd)

The foundation SST, SSTfnd, is the temperature free of diurnal (daily) temperature variability. That is, the top of the stable portion of the mixed layer. Only in situ contact thermometry can measure SSTfnd.
Conclusions

In summary, SST and atmospheric surface temperatures are too affected by weather and diurnal variability to measure climate changes with any reliability or precision. Total ocean or deep ocean temperatures give us a hint at long climatic changes of a thousand years or more, but they tell us little about changes in the one-hundred-year range.
The ocean mixed layer is a zone that begins between one millimeter and roughly ten meters below the ocean surface. Above this depth, temperatures are affected minute-by minute by the atmosphere and sunlight. At night, the top of the mixed layer moves closer to the surface but can be affected by windspeed, precipitation, and cloudiness. Below the top of the mixed layer, the temperature is more stable than the atmosphere and ocean surface. The temperature, salinity, and density of the layer is nearly constant from the top to the bottom due to turbulence. It reflects surface temperatures but is a function of an average of the previous several weeks. The thickness of the mixed layer varies seasonally from a few tens of meters to several hundred meters. We will discuss the mixed layer in much more detail in the next post.
None of this is in my new book Politics and Climate Change: A History but buy it anyway.
You can download the bibliography here.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--‘Net zero’ climate targets? Read the fine print

Well , exactly .
Only quoting short parts of the article here , as it ’ s laced with the inevitable nods to questionable ( to say the least ) ‘ greenhouse gas ’ theory that seems to create havoc in climate models , constantly pushing them out of alignment with observations .
Instead a few points of interest are selected .
[ Talkshop comments are in italics ] .
– – – The worldwide effort to prevent Earth from becoming an unlivable hothouse [ according to climate models ] is in the grips of “ net zero ” fever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases , net-zero pledges are an improvement , but in others the ‘ net ’ provision is a black box that can conceal all sorts of problems , ” Duncan McLaren , a professor at Lancaster University ’ s Environment Centre , told AFP .
.
.
.
“ The devil is in the details , ” said Kelly Levin , a senior associate with the World Resources Institute ’ s ( WRI ) global climate program .
There are several keys to evaluating the worth of carbon neutral promises , Levin and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether they apply to all greenhouse gases , or just carbon dioxide .
.
.
.
New Zealand for instance cemented it ’ s net-zero-by-2050 vows into law in November 2019 , but with a woolly caveat : it only applies to CO2 .
A third of the country ’ s total emissions come from belching cattle and especially sheep .
[ You couldn ’ t make this stuff up . ]
.
.
.
The UN ’ s climate science advisory panel , the IPCC , has said that manmade emissions must @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent by 2050—to have any hope of staying on this side of the 1.5C guardrail .
[ Make-believe all the way . ]
.
.
.
“ You can not get to net zero without some carbon dioxide removal , ” or CDR , said Oliver Geden , a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs , and an IPCC lead author .
And yet all of the options on the table for taking excess carbon out of the air remain deeply flawed , experts say .
To work at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the size of India would be needed for tree farms by the latter half of the century , studies have shown .
.
.
.
Another approach—in which the CO2 emitted from burning biofuels is buried underground—runs into a similar problem .
Meanwhile , technology that draws CO2 directly from the air , to be sequestered or converted into fuel pellets , remains in its infancy .
“ There is a large degree of uncertainty about the scale and availability of future carbon removals from both land-based carbon sinks ( trees ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Levin of WRI .
.
.
.
A UN report last week showed that global fossil fuel production must in fact decline roughly 6 percent annually over the next decade to keep the 1.5C target in view .
[ Fuel starvation is a problem , not a solution . ]
.
.
.
Finally , one must read the fine print of net zero pledges to see exactly what is , or is not , included .
“ There is not an agreed set of principles and guidelines for these plans , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Jesse Bragg , media director for watchdog NGO Corporate Accountability .
Many national schemes leave out the aviation and shipping sectors which , if they were nations , would each rank in the top ten of global emitters .
.
.
.
But even if promises on carbon neutrality are all kept , he added , that only stabilises the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere .
“ That means climate change impacts will remain as bad or worse than they are now unless we subsequently increase removals to bring concentrations down , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for plants , vegetation , trees etc .
relying on CO2 for photosynthesis .
And for the people who use or need them ] .

Well, exactly. Only quoting short parts of the article here, as it’s laced with the inevitable nods to questionable (to say the least) ‘greenhouse gas’ theory that seems to create havoc in climate models, constantly pushing them out of alignment with observations. Instead a few points of interest are selected. [Talkshop comments are in italics].
– – –
The worldwide effort to prevent Earth from becoming an unlivable hothouse [according to climate models] is in the grips of “net zero” fever, says Phys.org.
“In many cases, net-zero pledges are an improvement, but in others the ‘net’ provision is a black box that can conceal all sorts of problems,” Duncan McLaren, a professor at Lancaster University’s Environment Centre, told AFP.
. . .
“The devil is in the details,” said Kelly Levin, a senior associate with the World Resources Institute’s (WRI) global climate program.
There are several keys to evaluating the worth of carbon neutral promises, Levin and other experts said.
The first is whether they apply to all greenhouse gases, or just carbon dioxide.
. . .
New Zealand for instance cemented it’s net-zero-by-2050 vows into law in November 2019, but with a woolly caveat: it only applies to CO2.
A third of the country’s total emissions come from belching cattle and especially sheep. [You couldn’t make this stuff up.]
. . .
The UN’s climate science advisory panel, the IPCC, has said that manmade emissions must drop 45 percent by 2030—and then 100 percent by 2050—to have any hope of staying on this side of the 1.5C guardrail. [Make-believe all the way.]
. . .
“You cannot get to net zero without some carbon dioxide removal,” or CDR, said Oliver Geden, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and an IPCC lead author.
And yet all of the options on the table for taking excess carbon out of the air remain deeply flawed, experts say.
To work at scale, an area more than twice the size of India would be needed for tree farms by the latter half of the century, studies have shown.
. . .
Another approach—in which the CO2 emitted from burning biofuels is buried underground—runs into a similar problem.
Meanwhile, technology that draws CO2 directly from the air, to be sequestered or converted into fuel pellets, remains in its infancy.
“There is a large degree of uncertainty about the scale and availability of future carbon removals from both land-based carbon sinks (trees), and emerging carbon-removal technologies,” said Levin of WRI.
. . .
A UN report last week showed that global fossil fuel production must in fact decline roughly 6 percent annually over the next decade to keep the 1.5C target in view. [Fuel starvation is a problem, not a solution.]
. . .
Finally, one must read the fine print of net zero pledges to see exactly what is, or is not, included.
“There is not an agreed set of principles and guidelines for these plans, so they are rife with loopholes,” said Jesse Bragg, media director for watchdog NGO Corporate Accountability.
Many national schemes leave out the aviation and shipping sectors which, if they were nations, would each rank in the top ten of global emitters.
. . .
But even if promises on carbon neutrality are all kept, he added, that only stabilises the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
“That means climate change impacts will remain as bad or worse than they are now unless we subsequently increase removals to bring concentrations down,” he said. [Bad news for plants, vegetation, trees etc. relying on CO2 for photosynthesis. And for the people who use or need them].
Full article here.
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December 9, 2020 at 01:33PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--German Greens, NABU, Slammed For Giving Big Wind A Clear Way For Large-Scale Wind Projects In Forest

German Greens, NABU, Slammed For Giving Big Wind A Clear Way For Large-Scale Wind Projects In Forests

“ The wind power industry can not be expanded in a ‘ nature-compatible ’ way , ” says nature conservation group Naturschutzinitiativ .
Slams pseudo environmental groups , the German Green Party .
Yesterday I wrote about plans to transform 20 million square meters of a 1000-year old forest into an industrial wind complex comprising 60 200+ meter tall turbines with a rotor diameter of 150 meters and a rated capacity of 5.6 MW True nature conservationists are in shock at the proposal , which is now in its final approval phase .
How can anyone even consider such environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ environmentalists like the German Green Party and groups like NABU .
All of this is being made possible by the relaxation of otherwise strict environmental standards all in the name of the superordinate “ climate change protection ” .
Now , real nature protection group Naturschutz Initiativ here issued a press release asking if the traditional environmental protection groups such as NABU or the German Green Party have abandoned their original mission of environmental protection and become the lobbyists for Big Wind .
Nothing to do with environmental protection .
Photo : red @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NI archive .
NABU and the Greens say auf Wiedersehen to environmental protection NABU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen ( German Green Party ) have presented a joint strategy paper to accelerate the allegedly “ nature-compatible ” expansion of wind energy , says Naturschutzinitiativ , “ The paper is rather a farewell of the once bird protection association for nature and species protection .
The paper calls for “ electricity quantity-related expansion targets ” with the aim of “ exceptional reasons of public safety under species protection law ” .
As a consequence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weakening of nature conservation , which is obviously intended by the authors , or at least accepted by them .
Provisions in the paper are aimed at completely releasing the approval procedures from the urgently needed constitutional examination for the wind power industry .
Naturschutzinitiativ also states : The wording of one provision in the paper is an attempt to finally undermine the EU legal protection of individuals of specially protected species by taking it to the population level .
The formulation of NABU and the Greens is a 1:1 implementation of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Under the guise of climate protection The German government clearly wants to comply with the wind power industry ’ s demand to exempt nature-damaging interventions in the context of “ climate protection ” from the compensation obligations under nature conservation law , states the press release Naturschutzinitiativ adds : “ Wherever the wind power industry invades the last natural areas , exactly the opposite consequences occur : The devaluation of previously large , coherently valuable areas.
” Big Wind should be “ as unhindered as possible ” The remaining points of the paper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goal of the paper : To enable the wind power industry to operate in a framework that is as unhindered as possible .
The paper is no basis for a “ peace ” deal between the wind power industry and nature .
It is rather the parting of the former bird protection environmental group from nature and protection of species , ” says Harry Neumann , Federal Chairman of the Nature Conservation Initiative e.V .
( NI ) and Dr. Wolfgang Epple .
“ The wind power industry can not be expanded in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has apparently given up both the protection of large-scale near-natural landscapes and the technically sound protection of species by adopting the Green Party platforms and by submitting to the demands of the wind power lobby , ” said Harry Neumann and Dr. Wolfgang Epple .

“The wind power industry cannot be expanded in a ‘nature-compatible’ way,” says nature conservation group Naturschutzinitiativ. Slams pseudo environmental groups, the German Green Party.
Yesterday I wrote about plans to transform 20 million square meters of a 1000-year old forest into an industrial wind complex comprising 60 200+ meter tall turbines with a rotor diameter of 150 meters and a rated capacity of 5.6 MW
True nature conservationists are in shock at the proposal, which is now in its final approval phase. How can anyone even consider such environmental destruction? Blame it on corrupt “environmentalists like the German Green Party and groups like NABU.
All of this is being made possible by the relaxation of otherwise strict environmental standards all in the name of the superordinate “climate change protection”.
Now, real nature protection group Naturschutz Initiativ here issued a press release asking if the traditional environmental protection groups such as NABU or the German Green Party have abandoned their original mission of environmental protection and become the lobbyists for Big Wind.
Nothing to do with environmental protection. Photo: red kite struck by wind turbine blade / NI archive.
NABU and the Greens say auf Wiedersehen to environmental protection
NABU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (German Green Party) have presented a joint strategy paper to accelerate the allegedly “nature-compatible” expansion of wind energy, says Naturschutzinitiativ, “The paper is rather a farewell of the once bird protection association for nature and species protection.
The paper calls for “electricity quantity-related expansion targets” with the aim of “exceptional reasons of public safety under species protection law”. As a consequence, the strategy paper calls for a central weakening of nature conservation, which is obviously intended by the authors, or at least accepted by them.
Bypassing approval procedures
Provisions in the paper are aimed at completely releasing the approval procedures from the urgently needed constitutional examination for the wind power industry.
Naturschutzinitiativ also states: The wording of one provision in the paper is an attempt to finally undermine the EU legal protection of individuals of specially protected species by taking it to the population level. The formulation of NABU and the Greens is a 1:1 implementation of the goals of the wind power lobby.”
Under the guise of climate protection
The German government clearly wants to comply with the wind power industry’s demand to exempt nature-damaging interventions in the context of “climate protection” from the compensation obligations under nature conservation law, states the press release
Naturschutzinitiativ adds: “Wherever the wind power industry invades the last natural areas, exactly the opposite consequences occur: The devaluation of previously large, coherently valuable areas.”
Big Wind should be “as unhindered as possible”
The remaining points of the paper can be summarized under the recognizable overall goal of the paper: To enable the wind power industry to operate in a framework that is as unhindered as possible.
The paper is no basis for a “peace” deal between the wind power industry and nature. It is rather the parting of the former bird protection environmental group from nature and protection of species,” says Harry Neumann, Federal Chairman of the Nature Conservation Initiative e.V. (NI) and Dr. Wolfgang Epple.
“The wind power industry cannot be expanded in a “nature-compatible” way.
NABU has apparently given up both the protection of large-scale near-natural landscapes and the technically sound protection of species by adopting the Green Party platforms and by submitting to the demands of the wind power lobby,” said Harry Neumann and Dr. Wolfgang Epple.
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December 9, 2020 at 01:10PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Louisiana joins Texas in Supreme Court Motion

In its motion before the court , Louisiana ’ s State Attorney General maintains that “ Only the U.S. Supreme Court can ultimately decide cases of real controversy among the states under our Constitution.
” Three cheers for Louisiana !
Let ’ s hope that more states join in .
Louisiana has joined Texas in its Supreme Court Motion against Georgia , Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on the grounds that various changes to their voting rules or procedures – either through the courts or via executive actions – violated the Electors ’ Clause of the Constitution because they did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ROUGE , LA – Attorney General Jeff Landry issued the following statement regarding the ongoing controversies over the 2020 federal election and the new motion put forward by the State of Texas before the U.S. Supreme Court : “ Millions of Louisiana citizens , and tens of millions of our fellow citizens in the country , have deep concerns regarding the conduct of the 2020 federal elections .
Deeply rooted in these concerns is the fact that some states appear to have conducted their elections with a disregard to the U.S. Constitution .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ frustrated as some in media and the political class try to sidestep legitimate issues for the sake of expediency .
Weeks ago , on behalf of the citizens of Louisiana , my office joined many other states in filing a legal brief with the United States Supreme Court urging the Justices to look into the conduct of the election in Pennsylvania where their state court ignored the U.S. Constitution in regard to the conduct of the election .
The U.S. Constitution in Article 1 , Section 4 , states plainly : “ The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Elections for Senators and Representatives , shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature … ” The power for the conduct of federal elections is held by the State Legislatures in each state .
In states like Pennsylvania , the judicial branch attempted to seize control of these duties and obligations and to set their own rules .
These actions appear to be unconstitutional .
If it is unconstitutional for Pennsylvania to take this action , it is similarly unconstitutional for other states to have done the same .
Only the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real controversy among the states under our Constitution .
That is why the Justices should hear and decide the case which we have joined representing the citizens of Louisiana .
Furthermore , the U.S. Supreme Court should consider the most recent Texas motion , which contains some of the same arguments .
Louisiana citizens are damaged if elections in other states were conducted outside the confines of the Constitution while we obeyed the rules .
Thanks to Laurel for this link The post Louisiana joins Texas in Supreme Court Motion appeared first on @ @ @ @

In its motion before the court, Louisiana’s State Attorney General maintains that “Only the U.S. Supreme Court can ultimately decide cases of real controversy among the states under our Constitution.”
Three cheers for Louisiana! Let’s hope that more states join in.
_________
Louisiana has joined Texas in its Supreme Court Motion against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on the grounds that various changes to their voting rules or procedures – either through the courts or via executive actions – violated the Electors’ Clause of the Constitution because they did not go through the legislatures:
BATON ROUGE, LA – Attorney General Jeff Landry issued the following statement regarding the ongoing controversies over the 2020 federal election and the new motion put forward by the State of Texas before the U.S. Supreme Court:
“Millions of Louisiana citizens, and tens of millions of our fellow citizens in the country, have deep concerns regarding the conduct of the 2020 federal elections. Deeply rooted in these concerns is the fact that some states appear to have conducted their elections with a disregard to the U.S. Constitution. Furthermore, many Louisianans have become more frustrated as some in media and the political class try to sidestep legitimate issues for the sake of expediency.
Weeks ago, on behalf of the citizens of Louisiana, my office joined many other states in filing a legal brief with the United States Supreme Court urging the Justices to look into the conduct of the election in Pennsylvania where their state court ignored the U.S. Constitution in regard to the conduct of the election. The U.S. Constitution in Article 1, Section 4, states plainly: “The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature …” The power for the conduct of federal elections is held by the State Legislatures in each state. In states like Pennsylvania, the judicial branch attempted to seize control of these duties and obligations and to set their own rules. These actions appear to be unconstitutional. If it is unconstitutional for Pennsylvania to take this action, it is similarly unconstitutional for other states to have done the same.
Only the U.S. Supreme Court can ultimately decide cases of real controversy among the states under our Constitution. That is why the Justices should hear and decide the case which we have joined representing the citizens of Louisiana.
Furthermore, the U.S. Supreme Court should consider the most recent Texas motion, which contains some of the same arguments.
Louisiana citizens are damaged if elections in other states were conducted outside the confines of the Constitution while we obeyed the rules.
Here’s the statement:
http://agjefflandry.com/Article/10825
Thanks to Laurel for this link
The post Louisiana joins Texas in Supreme Court Motion appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 9, 2020 at 12:25PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Coral recovery during a prolonged heatwave offers new hope

University of Victoria biologists have discovered how some corals managed to survive a globally unprecedented heatwave , in a first-ever study that provides new hope for the long-term survival of coral reefs in the face of climate change .
“ The devastating effects of climate change on coral reefs are well known .
Finding ways to boost coral survival through marine heatwaves is crucial if coral reefs are to endure the coming decades of climate change , ” says UVic marine biologist Julia Baum , the study ’ s senior author .
Published today in Nature Communications , the study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research team as they tracked hundreds of coral colonies on reefs around Christmas Island ( Kiritimati ) , throughout the 2015-2016 El Niño .
Heat stress from that El Niño triggered the third-ever global coral bleaching event , causing mass coral bleaching and mortality on reefs around the world .
Its epicentre was Christmas Island , where the heatwave lasted an unprecedented 10 months .
Worldwide , coral reef fisheries are worth US $ 6.8 billion annually , and are a vital source of food and income for hundreds of millions of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead-up to the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development ( 2021-2030 ) , there is a renewed and global call to reverse the cycle of decline in ocean health .
“ Understanding how some corals can survive prolonged heatwaves could provide an opportunity to mitigate the impact of marine heatwaves on coral reefs , allowing us to buy time as we work to limit greenhouse gas emissions , ” says Danielle Claar , who led the study as a UVic doctoral student and is now a postdoctoral researcher at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world ’ s coral reefs because corals are highly sensitive to the temperature of their surrounding waters .
During a heatwave , corals release the algae that live in their tissues and produce food for them , causing the coral to turn completely white–a phenomenon known as coral bleaching .
Prolonged bleaching often causes corals to die from starvation .
If they can reclaim their food source within a few weeks , they can usually recover .
To date , coral recovery from bleaching has only ever been observed after heat stress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that heatwaves will continue to increase in both frequency and duration , a coral ’ s ability to recover its food source during a prolonged heatwave is essential to its survival .
“ Observing corals recovering from bleaching while still baking in hot waters is a game changer , ” says Baum .
Baum adds that corals only exhibited this capacity if they were not also exposed to other types of human-caused stressors , such as water pollution .
Until now it ’ s been unclear if local reef management could help improve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We ’ ve found a glimmer of hope that protection from local stressors can help corals , ” says Baum .
“ Although this pathway to survival may not be open to all corals or in all conditions , it demonstrates an innovative strategy for survival that could be leveraged by conservationists to support coral survival , ” adds Claar .
The research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada , the US National Science Foundation , the David and Lucile Packard Foundation , The Pew Charitable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Conservation , the Rufford Foundation , the Canadian Foundation for Innovation and the Shedd Aquarium .

UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA
Research News
IMAGE: UVIC MARINE BIOLOGIST JULIA BAUM SAMPLING PLATYGYRA COLONIES ON KIRITIMATI (CHRISTMAS ISLAND), 2019. view more CREDIT: CREDIT: KRISTINA TIETJEN.
University of Victoria biologists have discovered how some corals managed to survive a globally unprecedented heatwave, in a first-ever study that provides new hope for the long-term survival of coral reefs in the face of climate change.
“The devastating effects of climate change on coral reefs are well known. Finding ways to boost coral survival through marine heatwaves is crucial if coral reefs are to endure the coming decades of climate change,” says UVic marine biologist Julia Baum, the study’s senior author.
Published today in Nature Communications, the study presents the discoveries made by the international research team as they tracked hundreds of coral colonies on reefs around Christmas Island (Kiritimati), throughout the 2015-2016 El Niño. Heat stress from that El Niño triggered the third-ever global coral bleaching event, causing mass coral bleaching and mortality on reefs around the world. Its epicentre was Christmas Island, where the heatwave lasted an unprecedented 10 months.
Worldwide, coral reef fisheries are worth US$6.8 billion annually, and are a vital source of food and income for hundreds of millions of people in tropical island nations. In the lead-up to the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030), there is a renewed and global call to reverse the cycle of decline in ocean health.
“Understanding how some corals can survive prolonged heatwaves could provide an opportunity to mitigate the impact of marine heatwaves on coral reefs, allowing us to buy time as we work to limit greenhouse gas emissions,” says Danielle Claar, who led the study as a UVic doctoral student and is now a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Washington.
Climate change threatens the world’s coral reefs because corals are highly sensitive to the temperature of their surrounding waters. During a heatwave, corals release the algae that live in their tissues and produce food for them, causing the coral to turn completely white–a phenomenon known as coral bleaching. Prolonged bleaching often causes corals to die from starvation. If they can reclaim their food source within a few weeks, they can usually recover.
To date, coral recovery from bleaching has only ever been observed after heat stress subsides. With global climate models predicting that heatwaves will continue to increase in both frequency and duration, a coral’s ability to recover its food source during a prolonged heatwave is essential to its survival.
“Observing corals recovering from bleaching while still baking in hot waters is a game changer,” says Baum.
Baum adds that corals only exhibited this capacity if they were not also exposed to other types of human-caused stressors, such as water pollution. Until now it’s been unclear if local reef management could help improve corals chances of surviving climate change. “We’ve found a glimmer of hope that protection from local stressors can help corals,” says Baum.
“Although this pathway to survival may not be open to all corals or in all conditions, it demonstrates an innovative strategy for survival that could be leveraged by conservationists to support coral survival,” adds Claar.
###
The research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the US National Science Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts’ Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation, the Rufford Foundation, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation and the Shedd Aquarium.
From EurekAlert!
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--Snow chaos – Record snowfall and heavy rain cause mayhem in Austria and northern Italy

Umhausen saw 80cm ( 31.5 inches ) of snowfall in just one night , almost doubling the previous 24-hour record @ @ @ @ @ Meanwhile , 90cm ( 35½ inches ) of snow fell in Brenner .
The heavy @ @ @ @ @ major traffic jams , and forced closure of schools .
The highest avalanche warning was @ @ @ @ @ suffered heavy rainfall , with emergency services being called more than 400 times .
There @ @ @ @ @ mudslide .
Citizens were evacuated in Modena , as river levels climbed by 2,5 metres @ @ @ @ @ ) within 24 hours .
Thanks to Clay Olson for this link The post Snow @ @ @ @ @ heavy rain cause mayhem in Austria and northern Italy appeared first on Ice Age Now @

Umhausen saw 80cm (31.5 inches) of snowfall in just one night, almost doubling the previous 24-hour record of 45cm from 2013.
Meanwhile, 90cm (35½ inches) of snow fell in Brenner.
The heavy snowfall caused power black-outs, major traffic jams, and forced closure of schools. The highest avalanche warning was triggered.
Meanwhile, Venice suffered heavy rainfall, with emergency services being called more than 400 times. There is a high risk of mudslide.
Citizens were evacuated in Modena, as river levels climbed by 2,5 metres (more than 8 feet) within 24 hours.
https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/a/1626009.html
Thanks to Clay Olson for this link
The post Snow chaos – Record snowfall and heavy rain cause mayhem in Austria and northern Italy appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 9, 2020 at 11:57AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-09--GHCN V3 Unadjusted Data Shows Lungi, Sierra Leone Had A Cooling Trend Since 1880

What follows is the data from Lungi , Sierra Leone .
GHCN V3 Unadjusted data shows the station had a @ @ @ @ @ from 1880 to 1996 , while V4 Unadjusted data shows a cooling trend of -0.7C @ @ @ @ @ period with the GHCN V4 adj – homogenized data , the station shows a cooling @ @ @ @ @ some strange reason , the V3 Unadjusted data has data on the mean annual temperatures @ @ @ @ @ the V4 data has data up to 2018 .
GHCN V4 Unadjusted data shows the @ @ @ @ @ of less than 0.1C from 1880 to 2018 , while V4 Unadjusted data shows a @ @ @ @ @ .
Climate alarmists use the word “ science ” to describe such a major data @ @

What follows is the data from Lungi, Sierra Leone.
GHCN V3 Unadjusted data shows the station had a cooling trend of about -0.9C from 1880 to 1996, while V4 Unadjusted data shows a cooling trend of -0.7C.
Looking at the same period with the GHCN V4 adj – homogenized data, the station shows a cooling trend of -0.3C.
For some strange reason, the V3 Unadjusted data has data on the mean annual temperatures up to 1996, but the V4 data has data up to 2018.
GHCN V4 Unadjusted data shows the station had an upward trend of less than 0.1C from 1880 to 2018, while V4 Unadjusted data shows a warming trend of about 1C.
Climate alarmists use the word “science” to describe such a major data change.
▲ GHCN V3 Unadjusted / GHCN V4 Unadjusted / GHCN V4 adj – homogenized