iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--The conundrum of Hudson Bay bears that left shore late in 1983 with video from CBC archives

In 1983 , it was claimed that freeze-up of Hudson Bay was so late that polar bears didn ’ t leave the shore until the 4th of December – several weeks later than had been usual at that time .
However , the fact that sea ice charts show significant ice offshore weeks before that time suggests something else was probably going on .
About three weeks ago , CBC News republished an article ( with video ) from their 1983 archives for 1 December , about the plight of the people of Churchill who had already suffered one death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That was thirty-seven years ago , long before lack of sea ice was blamed for everything bad that happened to Western Hudson Bay polar bears .
In fact , rather than a really late freeze-up , it appears the problem had more to do with the fact the bears had had an especially tough spring that year and arrived onshore in only ‘ OK ’ condition – and as a consequence , the town dump became such a strong attractant for many bears that they were reluctant to leave when the sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no ice on Hudson Bay , and the bears were getting hungry [ my bold ] Polar bears were a common enough sight in the northern Manitoba town of Churchill , but in November 1983 they were getting too close for comfort .
Knowlton Nash , host of CBC ’ s The National , explained that people in the town had “ special reason ” to fear the “ annual invasion ” by polar bears .
“ Twice in the past week , bears have attacked people right on the streets of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was the first time that had happened in 15 years , and patrols were setting out nightly to “ scare the bears off.
” Reporter Karen Webb , usually a Winnipeg correspondent , made the trip to Churchill and explained that the town sat on a migration route for the bears .
“ Usually the bears just walk around the town and are gone by the first week of November , ” she said .
“ The only people they encounter : the scientists and the game wardens who count them.
” But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that meant the ice couldn ’ t freeze solidly on Hudson Bay , preventing the bears from walking out to hunt for seal — “ and that means they ’ re hungry , ” explained Webb .
Their food of choice became whatever they could “ scrounge ” at the dump on the edge of town .
Of course , we now have a better perspective on what happened in 1983 , which historically was the worst fall season for Western Hudson Bay polar bears since records began – including those years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks earlier and freezing a bit later in the late 1990s .
First , the chart below shows what conditions were like in 1985 in the second week of November , when polar bears usually took to the ice ( average date , 16 November according to Castro de la Guardia et al .
2017 ) – not the first week in November , as the CBC reporter above claimed .
Below is the same date in 1983 , showing a bit of ice off Churchill but not much , so it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bit late : What ’ s interesting is that CIS charts show there was significant ice off Churchill by the third week of November ( below ) – not quite as much as in 1985 but close .
However , it seems that polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump weren ’ t particularly interested in leaving ( see comments below ) , similar to what happened with bears in Belushya Guba in 2019 .
By the first week in December , when it was said all the bears finally left for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of the bay was already covered in ice .
This is what Canadian researchers had to say about the fall of 1983 in Churchill , reported in the 1985 Polar Bear Specialist Group report ( Calvert et al .
1986:19 and 24 ) : “ In 1983 , the Polar Bear Control Programme began in late August and continued until early December .
Bear numbers in the Churchill area were extremely high during the last three weeks of the period .
By December 4 , the sea ice had formed and most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freeze-up date confirmed in Stirling et al .
1999:29 , using the old criteria of 50 % ice cover over the entire WH region ] Nearly 300 man-days were required to respond to 191 calls ( 76 in 1982 ) regarding polar bear problems .
From November 24 – December I , 84 calls were received .
Only three incidents resulted in property damage totalling $ 1050 .
However , two incidents resulted in personal injury and death .
The arm of a photographer from Wisconsin was severely mangled by a bear during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two weeks later , a Churchill resident was killed by a bear near the burned ruins of the Churchill Hotel .
Problem bears were captured at the garbage dump , in Churchill , and at Camp Nanuk .
Of the total 41 problem bears live-captured and placed in D-20 , 19 were culvert-trapped ( compared to 5 in 1982 ) and 22 free-ranged ( 1 in 1982 ) .
Nine problem bears were moved north of Churchill by helicopter in order to make more room in D -20 .
In 1984 , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was from 1 September to 2 November , more than a month shorter than the 1983 season .
There were 69 reported incidents , and 200 man-days expended .
There was one serious encounter – a mauling in which there appeared to be extenuating circumstances.
” [ my bold ] Polar bear researchers Ian Stirling and Malcolm Ramsay emphasized that the mean weight of pregnant females they enountered in 1983 was 37kgs lighter than in other years ( Ramsay and Stirling 1988:615 ) .
These authors stated : In one extreme example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year in November 1983 weighed only 99 kg ( 218 lb ) .
As thin as she was then , she survived and by the following July she was pregnant again and weighed a remarkable 410 kg ( 904 lb ) .
Lunn and Stirling had this to say about polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump in 1983 : In other words , in 1983 the bears arrived onshore in WH leaner than usual after a poor spring feeding season – we probably won ’ t ever know why the bears didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as they needed that year .
This was clearly an issue that bothered Ian Stirling , before he moved on to worrying about global warminng .
However , we know the poor feeding opportunities in 1983 wasn ’ t due to lack of summer ice because the bears came ashore in August as usual .
Coming ashore leaner than usual meant they got hungry earlier and many turned to the dump .
Having found food there , it appears they were not in any hurry to leave at the first opportunity when sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happened with the bears at Belushya Guba in 2019 .
At the end of November 2020 , there was much more ice than ‘ normal ’ over central and south-western Hudson Bay , indicated by the swath of dark blue in the chart below : By stage of development ( ice thickness ) , 2/3 of the bay was ice-covered by the end of November 2020 : This year , a number of polar bears seemed to hang around onshore when there was ample ice forming offshore .
They were not feeding at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t like 1983 .
But the bears did come ashore late and in excellent condition ( very fat ) this summer after what must have been a very good spring feeding season .
The bears were so fat they caused very little trouble around Churchill and many hung around well after there was ice available for hunting .
We know from the onshore webcams that WH bears were successfully hunting on the new ice close to shore as early as 31 October but it appears from Derocher ’ s tagged bears that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until almost a month later , near the end of November .
I don ’ t have an explanation .
However , bears hanging around weeks longer than necessary onshore in the fall is as odd as the bears that stayed on the rapidly declining ice in August this year , when there would have been few opportunities to catch seals .
Calvert , W. , Stirling , I. , Schweinsburg , R.E.
, Lee , L.J.
, Kolenosky , G.B.
, Shoesmith , M. , Smith , B. , Crete , M. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bear management in Canada 1982-84 .
In : Polar Bears : Proceedings of the 9th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC , 9-11 August , 1985 , Edmonton , Canada .
Anonymous ( eds ) .
Gland , Switzerland and Cambridge UK , IUCN .
http : //pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/ pg .
19-34 .
Lunn , N.J. and Stirling , I .
1985 .
The significance of supplemental food to polar bears during the ice-free period of Hudson Bay .
Canadian Journal of Zoology 63:2291-2297 .
Ramsay , M.A .
and Stirling , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ecology of female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) .
Journal of Zoology London 214:601-624. http : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1988.tb03762.x/abstract Stirling , I. , Lunn , N.J. and Iacozza , J .
1999 .
Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change .
Arctic 52:294-306. http : //arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/935/960 [ open access ]

Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on December 17, 2020 |
In 1983, it was claimed that freeze-up of Hudson Bay was so late that polar bears didn’t leave the shore until the 4th of December – several weeks later than had been usual at that time. However, the fact that sea ice charts show significant ice offshore weeks before that time suggests something else was probably going on.
About three weeks ago, CBC News republished an article (with video) from their 1983 archives for 1 December, about the plight of the people of Churchill who had already suffered one death and one serious mauling by polar bears. That was thirty-seven years ago, long before lack of sea ice was blamed for everything bad that happened to Western Hudson Bay polar bears. In fact, rather than a really late freeze-up, it appears the problem had more to do with the fact the bears had had an especially tough spring that year and arrived onshore in only ‘OK’ condition – and as a consequence, the town dump became such a strong attractant for many bears that they were reluctant to leave when the sea ice formed offshore.
From the CBC archived report:
Warm November meant no ice on Hudson Bay, and the bears were getting hungry [my bold]
Polar bears were a common enough sight in the northern Manitoba town of Churchill, but in November 1983 they were getting too close for comfort. Knowlton Nash, host of CBC’s The National, explained that people in the town had “special reason” to fear the “annual invasion” by polar bears. “Twice in the past week, bears have attacked people right on the streets of the town,” said Nash.
It was the first time that had happened in 15 years, and patrols were setting out nightly to “scare the bears off.” Reporter Karen Webb, usually a Winnipeg correspondent, made the trip to Churchill and explained that the town sat on a migration route for the bears. “Usually the bears just walk around the town and are gone by the first week of November,” she said. “The only people they encounter: the scientists and the game wardens who count them.” But it had been a warm year, and that meant the ice couldn’t freeze solidly on Hudson Bay, preventing the bears from walking out to hunt for seal — “and that means they’re hungry,” explained Webb. Their food of choice became whatever they could “scrounge” at the dump on the edge of town.
Of course, we now have a better perspective on what happened in 1983, which historically was the worst fall season for Western Hudson Bay polar bears since records began – including those years after sea ice starting melting a few weeks earlier and freezing a bit later in the late 1990s.
THE SEA ICE IN 1983
First, the chart below shows what conditions were like in 1985 in the second week of November, when polar bears usually took to the ice (average date, 16 November according to Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017) – not the first week in November, as the CBC reporter above claimed.
Below is the same date in 1983, showing a bit of ice off Churchill but not much, so it’s true that the ice was a bit late:
What’s interesting is that CIS charts show there was significant ice off Churchill by the third week of November (below) – not quite as much as in 1985 but close. However, it seems that polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump weren’t particularly interested in leaving (see comments below), similar to what happened with bears in Belushya Guba in 2019.
By the first week in December, when it was said all the bears finally left for the ice (see quotes below), most of the bay was already covered in ice.
PROBLEM BEARS IN 1983
This is what Canadian researchers had to say about the fall of 1983 in Churchill, reported in the 1985 Polar Bear Specialist Group report (Calvert et al. 1986:19 and 24):
“In 1983, the Polar Bear Control Programme began in late August and continued until early December. Bear numbers in the Churchill area were extremely high during the last three weeks of the period. By December 4, the sea ice had formed and most of the bears had left. [freeze-up date confirmed in Stirling et al. 1999:29, using the old criteria of 50% ice cover over the entire WH region]
Nearly 300 man-days were required to respond to 191 calls (76 in 1982) regarding polar bear problems. From November 24 – December I, 84 calls were received. Only three incidents resulted in property damage totalling $1050. However, two incidents resulted in personal injury and death. The arm of a photographer from Wisconsin was severely mangled by a bear during a tour to Cape Churchill. About two weeks later, a Churchill resident was killed by a bear near the burned ruins of the Churchill Hotel.
Problem bears were captured at the garbage dump, in Churchill, and at Camp Nanuk. Of the total 41 problem bears live-captured and placed in D-20, 19 were culvert-trapped (compared to 5 in 1982) and 22 free-ranged (1 in 1982). Nine problem bears were moved north of Churchill by helicopter in order to make more room in D -20.
In 1984, the Polar Bear Control Programme season in Churchill was from 1 September to 2 November, more than a month shorter than the 1983 season. There were 69 reported incidents, and 200 man-days expended. There was one serious encounter – a mauling in which there appeared to be extenuating circumstances.” [my bold]
Polar bear researchers Ian Stirling and Malcolm Ramsay emphasized that the mean weight of pregnant females they enountered in 1983 was 37kgs lighter than in other years (Ramsay and Stirling 1988:615). These authors stated:
“...bears of all age and sex classes in the summer and autumn of 1983 appeared to us, at the time of capture, to be, on average, in poorer condition than at equivalent seasons in the years previous and subsequent. Some qualitative behavioural observations corroborated this view. During autumn, 1983, the town of Churchill recorded a larger number of bears feeding at its dump (Lunn & Stirling, 1985) than in the previous three years and a higher number of human-bear incidents than in any year of the previous decade. Three cubs-of-the-year were found abandoned by their mothers in autumn and near starvation, something seen in no other year.” [my bold]
In one extreme example, a female they encountered with three cubs-of-the year in November 1983 weighed only 99 kg (218 lb). As thin as she was then, she survived and by the following July she was pregnant again and weighed a remarkable 410 kg (904 lb).
Lunn and Stirling had this to say about polar bears feeding at the Churchill dump in 1983:
“In 1983, bears came into the dump more than a month earlier (late August compared with early October) and there were about twice as many (20 vs. 10-11) as in the previous 2 years.”
In other words, in 1983 the bears arrived onshore in WH leaner than usual after a poor spring feeding season – we probably won’t ever know why the bears didn’t get as much to eat as they needed that year. This was clearly an issue that bothered Ian Stirling, before he moved on to worrying about global warminng. However, we know the poor feeding opportunities in 1983 wasn’t due to lack of summer ice because the bears came ashore in August as usual. Coming ashore leaner than usual meant they got hungry earlier and many turned to the dump. Having found food there, it appears they were not in any hurry to leave at the first opportunity when sea ice appeared– exactly what seems to have happened with the bears at Belushya Guba in 2019.
WH FREEZE-UP THIS YEAR
At the end of November 2020, there was much more ice than ‘normal’ over central and south-western Hudson Bay, indicated by the swath of dark blue in the chart below:
By stage of development (ice thickness), 2/3 of the bay was ice-covered by the end of November 2020:
This year, a number of polar bears seemed to hang around onshore when there was ample ice forming offshore. They were not feeding at the dump, so it wasn’t like 1983. But the bears did come ashore late and in excellent condition (very fat) this summer after what must have been a very good spring feeding season.
The bears were so fat they caused very little trouble around Churchill and many hung around well after there was ice available for hunting. We know from the onshore webcams that WH bears were successfully hunting on the new ice close to shore as early as 31 October but it appears from Derocher’s tagged bears that the last of them didn’t leave until almost a month later, near the end of November.
I don’t have an explanation. However, bears hanging around weeks longer than necessary onshore in the fall is as odd as the bears that stayed on the rapidly declining ice in August this year, when there would have been few opportunities to catch seals.
REFERENCES
Calvert, W., Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Lee, L.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Shoesmith, M., Smith, B., Crete, M. and Luttich, S. 1986. Polar bear management in Canada 1982-84. In: Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 9th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 9-11 August, 1985, Edmonton, Canada. Anonymous (eds). Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/ pg. 19-34.
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Lunn, N.J. and Stirling, I. 1985. The significance of supplemental food to polar bears during the ice-free period of Hudson Bay. Canadian Journal of Zoology 63:2291-2297.
Ramsay, M.A. and Stirling, I. 1988. Reproductive biology and ecology of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Journal of Zoology London 214:601-624. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1988.tb03762.x/abstract
Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J. and Iacozza, J. 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic 52:294-306. http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/935/960 [open access]
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--How Effective is the “Reposition Global Warming as Theory” Leaked Memos Line? Let me show the ways …

The “ reposition global warming ” memo phrase is just that effective of a debate killer to this very day , up until the point where a majority of people start examining it deeply .
The question for the meme illustration artist here and for her friends is if they would execute somebody because they feel the person has committed a crime , or because they could actually prove that any sort of crime was ever committed .
–Russel Cook .
As I detailed before in my various blog posts , the supposedly leaked “ reposition global warming as theory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worthless-as-evidence to prove Big Oil & Coal executives colluded with skeptic climate scientists to deceive the public about the certainty of man-caused global warming , quite simply because it was an unsolicited proposal to a tiny and very short-lived public relations campaign , and nothing in that proposal was ever implemented within that PR campaign .
Or outside of it , for that matter ; I have it directly from one of the administrators in that campaign that their copy of the proposal was literally thrown away .
Yet somebody else in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their own personal copy of the rejected proposal with its awkwardly worded strategy goal attributed to the never-used name proposed to the campaign and its basically illogical audience targeting goals was not only worth saving , but also worth leaking to enviro-activists in 1991 , namely the Sierra Club ( which otherwise never breathed a word of it to anyone ) , and to Senator Al Gore .
Meanwhile , I ’ ve seen individuals ( described elsewhere less politely ) unquestioningly repeat the “ reposition global warming ” accusation in religious devotional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or as a core part of PhD dissertations ; and I ’ ve seen it casually slipped it into ‘ the shipping news , ’ and prominently featured on the U.S. Senate floor .
The latest regurgitation of it popped up just a couple of weeks ago , in this woeful meme illustration , top right panel : The artist , who otherwise specializes in “ books and cartoons that connect people with the natural world ” first offered an apologetic explanation before Tweeting the above meme illustration on December 2nd .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many people view blog posts or Senate speeches , Twitter shows viewers how big the reaction is to an account holder ’ s Tweets .
In this case right at the time of publication , the artist has experienced over 4,600 shares of it on Twitter , and 10,500+ people indicated their “ Like ” of it .
And 175 people so far have retweeted it with some kind of commentary attached .
There are the predictable ones about evil industry / comparisons to Big Tobacco , along with sadness , glowing praise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same “ reposition global warming ” line ( the fatal faults of which I detailed here ) , foreign language translation for teaching to students ( an action beset with pitfalls when that ’ s done without question ) , and so far , at least one veiled threat of violence against the evil-doers behind ‘ climate change disinformation.
’ One other reply went further , advocating the guillotine for corporate criminals , along with somebody else agreeing with that suggestion , but they aren ’ t there anymore because they violated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ violence or harm to other people .
Regarding the artist ’ s supposedly damaging quotes intended to evoke sorrow and anger at an industry bent on destroying the planet , they start to quickly fall apart under objective examination .
The bottom-most panel quoting a pair of sequential Tweets from Shell Oil simply illustrates the sheer pointless folly of oil companies of trying to appease enviro-activists when no amount of appeasement will ever satisfy them .
Put the absolutely identical wording in a tweet from Greenpeace and the meme artist here and all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hasn ’ t already said it , no different than the way the other supposedly devastating “ victory will be achieved ” memo phrase* associated with her # 3 API panel ends up looking like little more than a truism when mirror-flipped for Greenpeace ’ s own usage .
* ( hold that thought about the Greenpeace-sourced scan page for API memo , it ’ ll come up again below ) Regarding her fourth panel 2012 quote from then-Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson when he spoke at a 2012 Council on Foreign Relations meeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her quote of Tillerson lacking full context .
He was fully in favor of mitigating man-caused global warming , which bothered skeptics of the issue when President Trump appointed him five years later as Secretary of State .
Enviro-activists should have applauded his obvious lean toward their viewpoint , but instead they missed a golden opportunity to use him as a tool to flip President Trump the way GOP presidential candidate John McCain was flipped to being a global warming believer .
The artist ’ s top left panel , on the 1977 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dubious set of claims seen in the majority of current global warming lawsuits which I detailed at some length here , while noting in that post how the Black Report ’ s predictions were further taken apart here .
Exxon knew the polar regions were going to heat up 43 years in the future several degrees hotter than they literally are right now in 2020 ?
Apparently not .
Then there ’ s her two remaining panels , the one on the 1998 API memo ( notice how she chose to not include @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becomes a non-issue , meaning that ” from the memo – quite a difference from her more sinister-sounding version “ Unless the Kyoto proposal is defeated ” ) , which was a memo set otherwise unsolicited and never implemented , in addition to myriad other problems , which ultimately render it worthless as evidence proving oil/coal industry disinformation campaigns exist .
And finally , there ’ s her panel featuring the “ reposition global warming ” strategy phrase , which is equally worthless as evidence proving any corporate disinformation ever existed anywhere involving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scientists to deceive the public .
I could simply leave this situation right there , since this exercise shows once again how the true believers of global warming only offer two sets of very dubious ‘ leaked industry memos ’ supporting their notions about industry-led disinformation campaigns , and how oblivious that side is to the sheer worthlessness of these memo sets .
In this case , I could make an educated guess on where the meme artist sourced her information on those old leaked memos , but that ’ s all I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drive home the point on how these memos are themselves part of an ongoing disinformation campaign by a core clique of enviro-activists who apparently swim in dark money , it would be nice to prove it .
Unlike some of those instances I mentioned further above of individuals unquestioningly promoting the “ reposition global warming ” memos , the artist included her direct email address among the publicly seen tweet replies , and it ’ s on public view at one of her bio pages .
So , here ’ s the inquiry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in within minutes : My educated guess turned out to be exactly what I expected .
Meanwhile , her opening line exemplifies what ’ s fatally wrong with the entire ‘ crooked climate skeptics ’ accusation : Which is absolutely , precisely , exactly the blunder she committed when she created her meme illustration .
I , on the other hand , investigated the source of the “ reposition global warming ” memo set when I re-read it in 2009 at a hobby forum page , before I ever repeated it .
Inside @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find the memo set in its full context , I found irreconcilable differences on who was credited with first revealing it to the public , and as I mention in my October 22 , 2015 blog post , it took me seven solid months just to find the scans containing that set buried in Greenpeace archive scans which Greenpeace itself never publicized .
In subsequent years , got it confirmed in direct conversations with the president and top administrator of that old “ Information Council for the Environment ” ( ICE ) PR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ reposition global warming ” / “ older , less-educated males ” / “ younger , lower-income women ” strategy / targeting memo phrases , and I got it further directly confirmed from the head of the ad agency and its publicist and the three scientists providing their science expertise to the campaign that not a single one of them had ever heard of the ‘ strategy / targeting ’ guidelines they were supposedly working under .
All have expressed surprise to see just how much air time is given to a set @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On top of that , I got all of that and more independently corroborated by article writer / researcher Ron Arnold , who directly interviewed more participants of that ICE campaign than I had access to , in his examination of the ‘ Naomi Oreskes connection ’ to the memo set .
How will the meme artist here , who I ’ ve labeled without her name as a matter of courtesy , react to all of this , along with the people tweeting glowing support of her work ?
Consider that she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and as noted previously , others suggest outright execution for people whose family and friends would dearly miss them after they were killed for association with ‘ leaked memo sets ’ having zero real world significance , other than as weapons used against them under irrefutably false pretenses .
Would they all realize , and feel deep remorse , about being participants in a real-world variant of the “ Ox-Bow Incident ” ?
Think about it as it applies to the overarching problem Al Gore faced when he first ventured the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the late 1980s .
The late IPCC climate scientist Dr Stephen Schneider identified the problem early on : if the public perceived there was only an unresolved argument between two sides of the science debate , they ’ d tell Gore and the scientists to go away and report back when they actually resolved it .
How do you circumvent debate that undercuts your agenda ?
Label your opponents as corrupt monsters who need to be killed .
The “ reposition global warming ” memo phrase is just that effective of a debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until the point where a majority of people start examining it deeply .
The question for the meme illustration artist here and for her friends is if they would execute somebody because they feel the person has committed a crime , or because they could actually prove that any sort of crime was ever committed .
This entry was posted in accusation repetition and tagged Kert Davies by Russell Cook .
Bookmark the permalink .

The “reposition global warming” memo phrase is just that effective of a debate killer to this very day, up until the point where a majority of people start examining it deeply. The question for the meme illustration artist here and for her friends is if they would execute somebody because they feel the person has committed a crime, or because they could actually prove that any sort of crime was ever committed. –Russel Cook.
Reposted from The Gelbspanfiles.com
As I detailed before in my various blog posts, the supposedly leaked “reposition global warming as theory rather than fact” memo strategy is worthless-as-evidence to prove Big Oil & Coal executives colluded with skeptic climate scientists to deceive the public about the certainty of man-caused global warming, quite simply because it was an unsolicited proposal to a tiny and very short-lived public relations campaign, and nothing in that proposal was ever implemented within that PR campaign. Or outside of it, for that matter; I have it directly from one of the administrators in that campaign that their copy of the proposal was literally thrown away. Yet somebody else in the circle of people in that campaign thought their own personal copy of the rejected proposal with its awkwardly worded strategy goal attributed to the never-used name proposed to the campaign and its basically illogical audience targeting goals was not only worth saving, but also worth leaking to enviro-activists in 1991, namely the Sierra Club (which otherwise never breathed a word of it to anyone), and to Senator Al Gore.
Meanwhile, I’ve seen individuals (described elsewhere less politely) unquestioningly repeat the “reposition global warming” accusation in religious devotional blog posts and vegetarian blog posts, or as a core part of PhD dissertations; and I’ve seen it casually slipped it into ‘the shipping news,’ and prominently featured on the U.S. Senate floor. The latest regurgitation of it popped up just a couple of weeks ago, in this woeful meme illustration, top right panel:
The artist, who otherwise specializes in “books and cartoons that connect people with the natural world” first offered an apologetic explanation before Tweeting the above meme illustration on December 2nd. While it may be hard to quantify how many people view blog posts or Senate speeches, Twitter shows viewers how big the reaction is to an account holder’s Tweets. In this case right at the time of publication, the artist has experienced over 4,600 shares of it on Twitter, and 10,500+ people indicated their “Like” of it.
And 175 people so far have retweeted it with some kind of commentary attached. There are the predictable ones about evil industry / comparisons to Big Tobacco, along with sadness, glowing praise, links to other pieces enslaved to the same “reposition global warming” line (the fatal faults of which I detailed here), foreign language translation for teaching to students (an action beset with pitfalls when that’s done without question), and so far, at least one veiled threat of violence against the evil-doers behind ‘climate change disinformation.’ One other reply went further, advocating the guillotine for corporate criminals, along with somebody else agreeing with that suggestion, but they aren’t there anymore because they violated Twitter’s policy against advocating of violence or harm to other people.
Regarding the artist’s supposedly damaging quotes intended to evoke sorrow and anger at an industry bent on destroying the planet, they start to quickly fall apart under objective examination. The bottom-most panel quoting a pair of sequential Tweets from Shell Oil simply illustrates the sheer pointless folly of oil companies of trying to appease enviro-activists when no amount of appeasement will ever satisfy them. Put the absolutely identical wording in a tweet from Greenpeace and the meme artist here and all her friends would be surprised if Greenpeace hasn’t already said it, no different than the way the other supposedly devastating “victory will be achieved” memo phrase* associated with her #3 API panel ends up looking like little more than a truism when mirror-flipped for Greenpeace’s own usage. *(hold that thought about the Greenpeace-sourced scan page for API memo, it’ll come up again below)
Regarding her fourth panel 2012 quote from then-Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson when he spoke at a 2012 Council on Foreign Relations meeting, same basic problem, compounded by her quote of Tillerson lacking full context. He was fully in favor of mitigating man-caused global warming, which bothered skeptics of the issue when President Trump appointed him five years later as Secretary of State. Enviro-activists should have applauded his obvious lean toward their viewpoint, but instead they missed a golden opportunity to use him as a tool to flip President Trump the way GOP presidential candidate John McCain was flipped to being a global warming believer.
The artist’s top left panel, on the 1977 James Black Report to Exxon concerns a dubious set of claims seen in the majority of current global warming lawsuits which I detailed at some length here, while noting in that post how the Black Report’s predictions were further taken apart here. Exxon knew the polar regions were going to heat up 43 years in the future several degrees hotter than they literally are right now in 2020? Apparently not.
Then there’s her two remaining panels, the one on the 1998 API memo (notice how she chose to not include the words “‘climate change’ becomes a non-issue, meaning that” from the memo – quite a difference from her more sinister-sounding version “Unless the Kyoto proposal is defeated”), which was a memo set otherwise unsolicited and never implemented, in addition to myriad other problems, which ultimately render it worthless as evidence proving oil/coal industry disinformation campaigns exist. And finally, there’s her panel featuring the “reposition global warming” strategy phrase, which is equally worthless as evidence proving any corporate disinformation ever existed anywhere involving collusion between industry execs and skeptic climate scientists to deceive the public.
I could simply leave this situation right there, since this exercise shows once again how the true believers of global warming only offer two sets of very dubious ‘leaked industry memos’ supporting their notions about industry-led disinformation campaigns, and how oblivious that side is to the sheer worthlessness of these memo sets. In this case, I could make an educated guess on where the meme artist sourced her information on those old leaked memos, but that’s all I’d have to offer. To drive home the point on how these memos are themselves part of an ongoing disinformation campaign by a core clique of enviro-activists who apparently swim in dark money, it would be nice to prove it. Unlike some of those instances I mentioned further above of individuals unquestioningly promoting the “reposition global warming” memos, the artist included her direct email address among the publicly seen tweet replies, and it’s on public view at one of her bio pages. So, here’s the inquiry I emailed, verbatim:
Hi, I just now spotted your Twitter meme via one of the multitude of retweets of it. Quite impressive how your message is shared! I know of the 2012 quote from Tillerson at a Council on Foreign Relations interview that the guy at the Wall Street Journal moderated. But I’m wondering which specific source or sources you used for the quotes in your 3 other panels. They are common quotes, I ask because some people say they are from some particular website, unaware that the site is more like a third-hand repeater from the original source. It’s sorta like a genealogy exercise.
She responded in within minutes:
My educated guess turned out to be exactly what I expected. Meanwhile, her opening line exemplifies what’s fatally wrong with the entire ‘crooked climate skeptics’ accusation:
People love to repeat things without investigating the source, and there can be a game of broken telephone that amplifies bad facts!
Which is absolutely, precisely, exactly the blunder she committed when she created her meme illustration.
I, on the other hand, investigated the source of the “reposition global warming” memo set when I re-read it in 2009 at a hobby forum page, before I ever repeated it. Inside of the first day of trying to find the memo set in its full context, I found irreconcilable differences on who was credited with first revealing it to the public, and as I mention in my October 22, 2015 blog post, it took me seven solid months just to find the scans containing that set buried in Greenpeace archive scans which Greenpeace itself never publicized. In subsequent years, got it confirmed in direct conversations with the president and top administrator of that old “Information Council for the Environment” (ICE) PR campaign that they never operated under the “reposition global warming” / “older, less-educated males” / “younger, lower-income women” strategy / targeting memo phrases, and I got it further directly confirmed from the head of the ad agency and its publicist and the three scientists providing their science expertise to the campaign that not a single one of them had ever heard of the ‘strategy / targeting’ guidelines they were supposedly working under. All have expressed surprise to see just how much air time is given to a set of memos that basically nobody saw. On top of that, I got all of that and more independently corroborated by article writer / researcher Ron Arnold, who directly interviewed more participants of that ICE campaign than I had access to, in his examination of the ‘Naomi Oreskes connection’ to the memo set.
How will the meme artist here, who I’ve labeled without her name as a matter of courtesy, react to all of this, along with the people tweeting glowing support of her work? Consider that she has apparently already deleted replies from critics, and as noted previously, others suggest outright execution for people whose family and friends would dearly miss them after they were killed for association with ‘leaked memo sets’ having zero real world significance, other than as weapons used against them under irrefutably false pretenses.
Would they all realize, and feel deep remorse, about being participants in a real-world variant of the “Ox-Bow Incident”?
Think about it as it applies to the overarching problem Al Gore faced when he first ventured the idea of catastrophic man-caused global warming back in the late 1980s. The late IPCC climate scientist Dr Stephen Schneider identified the problem early on: if the public perceived there was only an unresolved argument between two sides of the science debate, they’d tell Gore and the scientists to go away and report back when they actually resolved it. How do you circumvent debate that undercuts your agenda? Label your opponents as corrupt monsters who need to be killed.
The “reposition global warming” memo phrase is just that effective of a debate killer to this very day, up until the point where a majority of people start examining it deeply. The question for the meme illustration artist here and for her friends is if they would execute somebody because they feel the person has committed a crime, or because they could actually prove that any sort of crime was ever committed.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--NYT: “What happened to Global Warming?”

NYT: “What happened to Global Warming?”

NYT rolling out the tired global warming makes winter storms more extreme narrative .
The major winter storm that hit @ @ @ @ @ Wednesday and Thursday probably prompted some people to ask , “ What happened to global @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s becoming increasingly clear that climate change does have an effect on storms @ @ @ @ @ complex and , yes , counterintuitive .
“ There were these expectations that winter was @ @ @ @ @ us , ” said Judah Cohen , director of seasonal forecasting at AER , a @ @ @ @ @ clients about weather and climate-related risk .
Although winters are becoming warmer and somewhat milder @ @ @ @ @ events have also been on the increase , and especially in the Northeastern United States @ @ @ @ @ out in a recent paper in the journal Nature Climate Change .
From the winter @ @ @ @ @ there were 27 major Northeast winter storms , three to four times the totals for @ @ @ @ @ decades .

Guest essay by Eric Worrall
NYT rolling out the tired global warming makes winter storms more extreme narrative.
How climate change is affecting winter storms.
Dec. 17, 2020, 3:10 a.m. ET
By John Schwartz
The major winter storm that hit the Eastern United States on Wednesday and Thursday probably prompted some people to ask, “What happened to global warming?”
But although it’s becoming increasingly clear that climate change does have an effect on storms, the relationship can be complex and, yes, counterintuitive. “There were these expectations that winter was basically going to disappear on us,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER, a company that provides information to clients about weather and climate-related risk.
Although winters are becoming warmer and somewhat milder over all, extreme weather events have also been on the increase, and especially in the Northeastern United States, as Dr. Cohen pointed out in a recent paper in the journal Nature Climate Change. From the winter of 2008-9 until 2017-18, there were 27 major Northeast winter storms, three to four times the totals for each of the previous five decades.
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--Polar bears again attracted to Russian town by dead walrus Attenborough blames on no sea ice

In the news again : Cape Schmidt ( on the Chukchi Sea ) made famous by Sir David Attenborough ’ s false claim that walrus fell to their deaths because of lack of sea ice due to climate change when a clever polar bear hunting strategy was actually to blame .
Last year in December ( above ) , some bears were feeding at Ryrkaypiy ’ s garbage dump and wandering around town after being displaced from feeding on walrus carcasses by bigger , stronger bears on the nearby point .
This year , the town has managed to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while the residents are having no real problems , more than 30 bears have been spotted near town , almost certainly feeding on natural-death carcasses of walrus along the shore ( see photo below from 2017 where Ryrkaypiy can be seen in the background ) .
From the Russian news agency TASS ( 16 December 2020 ) , my bold : Almost 30 polar bears have come within a touching distance to the village of Ryrkaypiy in Chukotka .
The animals have been peaceful so far , the WWF Russia told TASS .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the west coast of Chukotka is approached by a few dozens of polar bears .
The WWF Russia bear patrol brigade is handling the situation and is not letting the predators to enter the village , ” the statement reads .
It is noted that the patrol counted around 30 bears today , they are behaving in a peaceful manner .
“ These are just the ones who could be seen with binoculars , there are likely more animals , ” the press service explained .
In response to this report , polar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only reason that these Chukchi Sea polar bears would be scavenging is lack of sea ice ( below ) : However , ice charts for the 10th of December , almost one week before this report was published ( below ) , show rather an abundance of sea ice off Ryrkaypiy : In fact , there has been ice offshore for weeks in that part of the Chukchi Sea , certainly enough to attract the seals on which polar bears usually feed in the fall .
The chart below is from 1 December @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinks polar bears should do rather than assessing what the bears are actually doing .
It is apparent that polar bears near Ryrkaypiy prefer to scavenge hundreds of walrus carcasses rather than hunt for live seals on the newly-formed ice and have been doing so since 2006 ( see discussion below ) .
Dead walrus , dead whales , and live seals are all natural food sources and provide the fat that polar bears need to thrive , so there is no reason to assume bears would not choose the more efficient route @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presents itself .
Recent scientific studies have shown Chukchi Sea polar bears are in excellent condition and reproducing well despite recent declines in summer sea ice and there is no scientific evidence that this situation changed markedly this year ( Adam et al .
2019 ; AC SWG 2018 ; Regehr et al .
2018 ; Rode et al .
2014 , 2018 ) .
The latest survey estimated about 3,000 bears in the Chukchi Sea .
On the contrary , there is every reason to suggest that more polar bears visiting Chukotka @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing numbers of bears – as I suggested earlier this year to explain the rising problems with bears in Labrador .
In other words , as was true in the 1980s , seeing more bears often means there are actually more bears .
Ryrkaypiy is located the base of a spit where walrus herds have congregated every few years in the fall , since at least 2007 .
Walrus numbers are way up compared to what they were in the 1990s and the size of herds that have come ashore in recent years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Fay and Kelly 1980 ; Fay et al .
1989 ; Fischbach et al .
2016 ; Lowry 1985 ; MacCracken et al .
2017 ) .
The town is just a little over a mile from the cliffs where the infamous Netflix and BBC walrus videos were shot in 2017 .
A mile is nothing for a polar bear : bears that ‘ normally ’ hang out on the spit are close enough to the village to cause trouble if they are so inclined .
In 2013 , more than 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ryrkaypiy residents because they were drawn to two whale carcasses washed ashore nearby : In 2007 , polar bears descended on the village after a massive herd of 40,000 walrus spent time on the spit that fall , leaving more than 500 carcasses on local beaches from animals that had died naturally from falls or trampling .
Bottom line : This year ’ s report differed from the influx of bears that terrorized the village in 2007 and 2019 because the village seems to have finally taken sufficient measures to keep the bears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ice caused by human-caused global warming is not causing increasing numbers of polar bears to congregate around Ryrkaypiy in the late fall .
A combination of increasing numbers of bears plus an abundance of walrus that have died of natural causes earlier in the year are almost certainly the proximate cause .
Carcasses of walrus and dead whales are an attractive source of food for polar bears who must replenish fat they have lost over the summer before the cold and darkness of winter sets in .
These sources of fat are just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as live seals and are easier to access .
Polar bears are often smarter than polar bear biologists assume .
AC SWG 2018 .
Chukchi-Alaska polar bear population demographic parameter estimation .
Eric Regehr , Scientific Working Group ( SWG .
Report of the Proceedings of the 10th meeting of the Russian-American Commission on Polar Bears , 27-28 July 2018 ) , pg .
5 .
Published 30 July 2018 .
US Fish and Wildlife Service .
Adam , R. , Bryan , A. , Quakenbush , L. , Crawford , J. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seal productivity in Alaska using harvest-based monitoring , 1975-2016 .
Poster presentation , Alaska Marine Science Symposium , 28 January-1 February .
References Crockford , S.J .
2014 .
On The Beach : Walrus Haulouts are Nothing New .
The Global Warming Policy Foundation Briefing 11 , London .
Pdf here Fay , F.H .
and Kelly , B.P .
1980 .
Mass natural mortality of walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus ) at St. Lawrence Island , Bering Sea , autumn 1978 .
Arctic 33:226-245 .
[ open access ] PDF here .
Fay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Sease , J.L .
1989 .
Managing the exploitation of Pacific walruses : a tradegy of delayed response and poor communication .
Marine Mammal Science 5:1-16 .
PDF HERE .
Fischbach , A.S. , Kochnev , A.A. , Garlich-Miller , J.L .
and Jay , C.V. 2016 .
Pacific walrus coastal haulout database , 1852-2016 – Background Report .
USGS Open-File Report 2016-1108 .
DOI : 10.3133/ofr20161108 PDF HERE , download here .
MacCracken , J.G.
, Beatty , W.S.
, Garlich-Miller , J.L.
, Kissling , M.L and Snyder , J.A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the Pacific Walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) , May 2017 ( Version 1.0 ) .
US Fish & Wildlife Service , Anchorage , AK .
Pdf here ( 8.6 mb ) .
Regehr , E.V.
, Hostetter , N.J. , Wilson , R.R.
, Rode , K.D.
, St. Martin , M. , Converse , S.J .
2018 .
Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea .
Scientific Reports 8 ( 1 ) DOI : 10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ E.V.
, Douglas , D. , Durner , G. , Derocher , A.E.
, Thiemann , G.W.
, and Budge , S. 2014 .
Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss : feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations .
Global Change Biology 20 ( 1 ) :76-88. http : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/abstract Rode , K. D. , R. R. Wilson , D. C. Douglas , V. Muhlenbruch , T.C .
Atwood , E. V. Regehr , E.S .
Richardson , N.W .
Pilfold , A.E .
Derocher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S.C. Amstrup , M. S. Martin , A.M. Pagano , and K. Simac .
2018 .
Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity .
Global Change Biology http : //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/full

In the news again: Cape Schmidt (on the Chukchi Sea) made famous by Sir David Attenborough’s false claim that walrus fell to their deaths because of lack of sea ice due to climate change when a clever polar bear hunting strategy was actually to blame.
Last year in December (above), some bears were feeding at Ryrkaypiy’s garbage dump and wandering around town after being displaced from feeding on walrus carcasses by bigger, stronger bears on the nearby point.
This year, the town has managed to keep the bears out of town, so while the residents are having no real problems, more than 30 bears have been spotted near town, almost certainly feeding on natural-death carcasses of walrus along the shore (see photo below from 2017 where Ryrkaypiy can be seen in the background).
From the Russian news agency TASS (16 December 2020), my bold:
Almost 30 polar bears have come within a touching distance to the village of Ryrkaypiy in Chukotka. The animals have been peaceful so far, the WWF Russia told TASS. “The small village of Ryrkaypiy in the west coast of Chukotka is approached by a few dozens of polar bears. The WWF Russia bear patrol brigade is handling the situation and is not letting the predators to enter the village,” the statement reads. It is noted that the patrol counted around 30 bears today, they are behaving in a peaceful manner. “These are just the ones who could be seen with binoculars, there are likely more animals,” the press service explained.
In response to this report, polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher insisted that the only reason that these Chukchi Sea polar bears would be scavenging is lack of sea ice (below):
There’s only 1 reason why so many polar bears would be around a village in December: lack of sea ice. Polar bears prefer hunting seals to scavenging & typically leave land once sea ice is available. pic.twitter.com/30urBjXdoq — Andrew Derocher (@AEDerocher) December 17, 2020
However, ice charts for the 10th of December, almost one week before this report was published (below), show rather an abundance of sea ice off Ryrkaypiy:
In fact, there has been ice offshore for weeks in that part of the Chukchi Sea, certainly enough to attract the seals on which polar bears usually feed in the fall. The chart below is from 1 December 2020:
Derocher is describing what he thinks polar bears should do rather than assessing what the bears are actually doing. It is apparent that polar bears near Ryrkaypiy prefer to scavenge hundreds of walrus carcasses rather than hunt for live seals on the newly-formed ice and have been doing so since 2006 (see discussion below). Dead walrus, dead whales, and live seals are all natural food sources and provide the fat that polar bears need to thrive, so there is no reason to assume bears would not choose the more efficient route to a meal of fat when it presents itself.
Recent scientific studies have shown Chukchi Sea polar bears are in excellent condition and reproducing well despite recent declines in summer sea ice and there is no scientific evidence that this situation changed markedly this year (Adam et al. 2019; AC SWG 2018; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode et al. 2014, 2018). The latest survey estimated about 3,000 bears in the Chukchi Sea. On the contrary, there is every reason to suggest that more polar bears visiting Chukotka settlements in recent years is due to growing numbers of bears – as I suggested earlier this year to explain the rising problems with bears in Labrador. In other words, as was true in the 1980s, seeing more bears often means there are actually more bears.
Recent history of polar bears at Ryrkaypiy
Ryrkaypiy is located the base of a spit where walrus herds have congregated every few years in the fall, since at least 2007. Walrus numbers are way up compared to what they were in the 1990s and the size of herds that have come ashore in recent years have been rather astonishing (Crockford 2014; Fay and Kelly 1980; Fay et al. 1989; Fischbach et al. 2016; Lowry 1985; MacCracken et al. 2017). The town is just a little over a mile from the cliffs where the infamous Netflix and BBC walrus videos were shot in 2017. A mile is nothing for a polar bear: bears that ‘normally’ hang out on the spit are close enough to the village to cause trouble if they are so inclined.
In 2013, more than 40 polar bears were reported to be threatening Ryrkaypiy residents because they were drawn to two whale carcasses washed ashore nearby:
“Bear scare: Crowds of polar predators ‘besiege’ Russian Far East town“(11 November 2013):
“Forty-three predators have gathered together near the village of Ryrkaypy, according to WWF Russia. Polar bears were spotted near the remains of two dead whales, washed onto the beaches several kilometers away from the Chukotka settlement. “The last time a large number of polar bears gathered in one place was discovered on the Arctic coast of Chukotka in the fall of 2006,” head of the Polar Bear Patrol WWF project Viktor Nikiforov said.”
Online news outlet Gizmodo reported in late October 2017:
“…Ryrkaypiy, a tiny village located on the northern coast of Chukotka bordering the Chukchi Sea. According to a report by the Siberian Times, 5,000 walruses recently hauled out on a shoreline near the village. The walruses were followed by about 20 polar bears, no doubt drawn by the stench of thousands of blubbery, flippered meals. The arrival of the bears caused the walruses to panic, and many attempted to flee. Per the Siberian Times, “several hundred” fell to their deaths off the cliffs of the nearby Kozhevnikova Cape. The bears, naturally, went to town on the carcasses.”
In 2007, polar bears descended on the village after a massive herd of 40,000 walrus spent time on the spit that fall, leaving more than 500 carcasses on local beaches from animals that had died naturally from falls or trampling.
Bottom line: This year’s report differed from the influx of bears that terrorized the village in 2007 and 2019 because the village seems to have finally taken sufficient measures to keep the bears out of town. Lack of sea ice caused by human-caused global warming is not causing increasing numbers of polar bears to congregate around Ryrkaypiy in the late fall. A combination of increasing numbers of bears plus an abundance of walrus that have died of natural causes earlier in the year are almost certainly the proximate cause. Carcasses of walrus and dead whales are an attractive source of food for polar bears who must replenish fat they have lost over the summer before the cold and darkness of winter sets in. These sources of fat are just as useful to bears for that purpose as live seals and are easier to access. Polar bears are often smarter than polar bear biologists assume.
References
AC SWG 2018. Chukchi-Alaska polar bear population demographic parameter estimation. Eric Regehr, Scientific Working Group (SWG. Report of the Proceedings of the 10th meeting of the Russian-American Commission on Polar Bears, 27-28 July 2018), pg. 5. Published 30 July 2018. US Fish and Wildlife Service.
Adam, R., Bryan, A., Quakenbush, L., Crawford, J., and Biderman, L. 2019. Bearded seal productivity in Alaska using harvest-based monitoring, 1975-2016. Poster presentation, Alaska Marine Science Symposium, 28 January-1 February.
References
Crockford, S.J. 2014. On The Beach: Walrus Haulouts are Nothing New. The Global Warming Policy Foundation Briefing 11, London. Pdf here
Fay, F.H. and Kelly, B.P. 1980. Mass natural mortality of walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) at St. Lawrence Island, Bering Sea, autumn 1978. Arctic 33:226-245. [open access] PDF here.
Fay, F.H., Kelly, B.P. and Sease, J.L. 1989. Managing the exploitation of Pacific walruses: a tradegy of delayed response and poor communication. Marine Mammal Science 5:1-16. PDF HERE.
Fischbach, A.S., Kochnev, A.A., Garlich-Miller, J.L. and Jay, C.V. 2016. Pacific walrus coastal haulout database, 1852-2016 – Background Report. USGS Open-File Report 2016-1108. DOI: 10.3133/ofr20161108 PDF HERE, download here.
Lowry, L. 1985. “Pacific Walrus – Boom or Bust?” Alaska Fish & Game Magazine July/August: 2-5. pdf here.
MacCracken, J.G., Beatty, W.S., Garlich-Miller, J.L., Kissling, M.L and Snyder, J.A. 2017. Final Species Status Assessment for the Pacific Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), May 2017 (Version 1.0). US Fish & Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK. Pdf here (8.6 mb).
Regehr, E.V., Hostetter, N.J., Wilson, R.R., Rode, K.D., St. Martin, M., Converse, S.J. 2018. Integrated population modeling provides the first empirical estimates of vital rates and abundance for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea. Scientific Reports 8 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-34824-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34824-7
Rode, K.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. Global Change Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/abstract
Rode, K. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and K. Simac. 2018. Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity. Global Change Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/full
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December 20, 2020 at 03:00PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--South Australia, the second cheapest electricity in Australia … or the most expensive?

Previous post detailed electricity prices of four states in Australia , coming to the conclusion that the electricity prices of South Australia were without any doubt the highest of those four states .
In the meanwhile , I came across several other sources that also claimed that South Australia has the highest electricity price for consumers in Australia .
Now imagine my surprise reading the last paragraph of the Wikipedia article on “ Energy in Australia ” : South Australia , the second cheapest electricity in Australia ?
!
?
!
In my limited dataset with only four states , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average electricity price for consumers .
This means that South Australia is at best the fourth cheapest in Australia ( if all other not listed states were more expensive ) .
How does this “ second cheapest electricity ” claim square with being at best the fourth most expensive , possibly even the most expensive ?
The link goes to an article on SolarQuotes , titled South Australia Is Actually Second Cheapest State For Household Electricity and written in 2016 by Ronald Brakels .
The article is a rebuttal of the claim that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electricity ” made by Malcolm Turnbull back then .
Brakels says that this is not true and therefor also disagrees with the assertion that South Australia has the highest electricity price because of its high share of renewables .
He even claims the contrary : according to his calculations , it is Victoria ( a state with a large share of coal power ) that had by far the most expensive electricity and South Australia ( with a large share of renewables ) is the second cheapest .
Pivotal to his argument is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electricity and the price that the typical consumer pays for electricity .
I can somehow understand what he is trying to do here .
Averages are not necessarily relevant .
For example , a body of water that is on average a few inches deep , can at places be deep enough to drown .
If typical consumers get their electricity cheap , then generally consumers in that state have cheap energy , no matter what the average is .
But then , is this playing here too ?
When a state has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the “ typical ” consumer gets electricity at a low price , then the rest of the consumers need to pay an insane amount for their electricity in order for that state to have a high average price .
Unless there are extreme differences in electricity prices between the typical users and the rest , I don ’ t expect the price that the typical consumer pays for electricity will stay in the neighborhood of the average price of that state .
In other words , I don ’ t expect the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the average price .
Let ’ s now see how he comes to South Australia to be the second cheapest and Victoria by far the most expensive .
He starts from the “ representative consumers ” .
The profile of these representative consumers is defined in the report Residential Electricity Price Trends and in that report the representative consumers of South Australia have a lower electricity consumption than the representative consumers of most other states/territories .
South Australia ( SA ) has the second lowest demand of all states and territories , just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than looked up what the annual bill would be for those representative consumers .
He did this by comparing what consumers with such annual consumption would have to pay under the Maximiser plan from Origin Energy in those states and territories .
This is the result of his comparison : Finally , he takes the total price of the typical annual electricity bill ( AU $ ) and divides it by the consumption ( kWh ) .
This gives him the price of electricity per kilowatt-hour for these representative consumers : The first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Australia is in the fourth position , after ACT ( Australian Capital Territory ) , NSW ( New South Wales ) and NT ( Northern Territory ) ?
So , how could South Australia then be the second cheapest when his own calculations puts it in the fourth position ?
I think it is just semantics .
On a Governmental level , Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory are “ territories ” , not “ states ” .
Therefor by arguing that South Australia is actually the “ second cheapest state ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the top 4 and advance two places in the final result… If he had just followed the data from the datasets he used , he would have to say that South Australia is the “ fourth cheapest ” and that definitely isn ’ t as catchy as being the “ second cheapest ” .
From that graph , it is indeed clear that Victoria had the most expensive electricity back then .
Not only that , it rises well above the rest .
This seems odd , in all the comparisons of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier , Victoria ranked somewhere in ( the higher end of ) the middle , while South Australia always stood head and shoulder above the rest .
Yet , in Brakels calculations , Victoria has an incredibly high electricity price for its representative consumers and South Australia is somewhere on the lower end of the middle… How is it possible that Victoria had such a high electricity price ?
Looking at the data in the article , Victoria had the lowest electricity consumption ( first graph ) and the lowest annual bill ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course possible that this low annual bill is nevertheless relatively high compared to its annual consumption .
This is the calculation that Brakels made : the representative consumer in Victoria consumes 4,026 kWh per year and has an electricity bill of 1,426 AU $ per year , therefor it has a calculated price of 1,426 / 4,026 = 0.354 AU $ /kWh or 35.4 AU $ cent/kWh .
That is mathematically correct , but … 35.4 cent per kWh ?
That seems extremely high .
I was puzzled by the discrepancy between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Victoria and South Australia … until I started to read the “ Residential Electricity Price Trends ” reports ( the report that he used as the source of the consumption data for the representative consumers ) .
I indeed found a graph with the trend of the residential electricity price in that report : Weirdly enough , those prices were also for the same “ representative consumers ” having the consumption that was used in the article , but those prices looked nothing like the prices that were used in the article… Also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electricity price of South Australia is not only the highest , it is also well above the rest .
Exactly where I expected it to be .
The Victoria electricity price is on the higher end of the middle , also exactly where I expected it to be .
This was the point where I started to realize that Brakels rather selectively used data from this report .
This report did not only provide the annual electricity consumption of those representative consumers ( these values were used in the article to create the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corresponding annual electricity bill ( these values were not used , instead were replaced by the Maximiser plan data ) .
Even the price per kWh for those representative consumers ( based on the the annual consumption and annual bill data of the representative consumers ) was provided in that report , yet for some reason he didn ’ t use it in his article… So , why did Brakels go to such great lengths to gather that annual bill data from Origin Energy ?
He could have saved the effort and just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for those representative consumers straight from the report !
No calculations needed whatsoever and only one graph to create .
If he would have created that graph , this would be the result : That is quite a difference with the graph that was shown in the article .
Victoria lost its position of the most expensive state/territory and it is replaced by South Australia that is now head and shoulder above the rest .
Which is in line with the average electricity price data that shows the same pattern .
Now everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia has the second cheapest electricity in Australia is in fact an artifact of the replacement of the annual bill data from the report , combined with the use of semantics to eliminate two inconvenient data points .
Apply both tricks and South Australia will have the second cheapest electricity of all states ( excluding the territories ) .
Don ’ t apply those tricks and South Australia will have the most expensive electricity of all states and territories .

Previous post detailed electricity prices of four states in Australia, coming to the conclusion that the electricity prices of South Australia were without any doubt the highest of those four states. In the meanwhile, I came across several other sources that also claimed that South Australia has the highest electricity price for consumers in Australia.
Now imagine my surprise reading the last paragraph of the Wikipedia article on “Energy in Australia” (my emphasis) :
It was claimed in 2017 that South Australia had the most expensive electricity in the world [50] Another analysis claimed that South Australia has the second cheapest electricity in Australia.[51]
South Australia, the second cheapest electricity in Australia?!?!
In my limited dataset with only four states, South Australia had -by far- the highest average electricity price for consumers. This means that South Australia is at best the fourth cheapest in Australia (if all other not listed states were more expensive). How does this “second cheapest electricity” claim square with being at best the fourth most expensive, possibly even the most expensive?
The link goes to an article on SolarQuotes, titled South Australia Is Actually Second Cheapest State For Household Electricity and written in 2016 by Ronald Brakels. The article is a rebuttal of the claim that “South Australia has the most expensive electricity” made by Malcolm Turnbull back then. Brakels says that this is not true and therefor also disagrees with the assertion that South Australia has the highest electricity price because of its high share of renewables. He even claims the contrary: according to his calculations, it is Victoria (a state with a large share of coal power) that had by far the most expensive electricity and South Australia (with a large share of renewables) is the second cheapest.
Pivotal to his argument is the distinction between the average price of electricity and the price that the typical consumer pays for electricity. I can somehow understand what he is trying to do here. Averages are not necessarily relevant. For example, a body of water that is on average a few inches deep, can at places be deep enough to drown. If typical consumers get their electricity cheap, then generally consumers in that state have cheap energy, no matter what the average is.
But then, is this playing here too? When a state has for example a high average electricity price and the “typical” consumer gets electricity at a low price, then the rest of the consumers need to pay an insane amount for their electricity in order for that state to have a high average price. Unless there are extreme differences in electricity prices between the typical users and the rest, I don’t expect the price that the typical consumer pays for electricity will stay in the neighborhood of the average price of that state. In other words, I don’t expect the typical price to be that far off the average price.
Let’s now see how he comes to South Australia to be the second cheapest and Victoria by far the most expensive. He starts from the “representative consumers”. The profile of these representative consumers is defined in the report Residential Electricity Price Trends and in that report the representative consumers of South Australia have a lower electricity consumption than the representative consumers of most other states/territories. South Australia (SA) has the second lowest demand of all states and territories, just behind Victoria (VIC):
Figure 1. Annual grid electricity consumption for typical households graph from the article
Brakels than looked up what the annual bill would be for those representative consumers. He did this by comparing what consumers with such annual consumption would have to pay under the Maximiser plan from Origin Energy in those states and territories. This is the result of his comparison:
Figure 2. Typical annual electricity bill graph from the article
Finally, he takes the total price of the typical annual electricity bill (AU$) and divides it by the consumption (kWh). This gives him the price of electricity per kilowatt-hour for these representative consumers:
Figure 3. Cost of electricity per kWh from the article
The first thing that caught my attention was that South Australia is in the fourth position, after ACT (Australian Capital Territory), NSW (New South Wales) and NT (Northern Territory)? So, how could South Australia then be the second cheapest when his own calculations puts it in the fourth position?
I think it is just semantics. On a Governmental level, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory are “territories”, not “states”. Therefor by arguing that South Australia is actually the “second cheapest state” allows him to exclude the two territories in the top 4 and advance two places in the final result… If he had just followed the data from the datasets he used, he would have to say that South Australia is the “fourth cheapest” and that definitely isn’t as catchy as being the “second cheapest”.
From that graph, it is indeed clear that Victoria had the most expensive electricity back then. Not only that, it rises well above the rest. This seems odd, in all the comparisons of the average electricity prices that I found earlier, Victoria ranked somewhere in (the higher end of) the middle, while South Australia always stood head and shoulder above the rest. Yet, in Brakels calculations, Victoria has an incredibly high electricity price for its representative consumers and South Australia is somewhere on the lower end of the middle…
How is it possible that Victoria had such a high electricity price? Looking at the data in the article, Victoria had the lowest electricity consumption (first graph) and the lowest annual bill (second graph). It is of course possible that this low annual bill is nevertheless relatively high compared to its annual consumption. This is the calculation that Brakels made: the representative consumer in Victoria consumes 4,026 kWh per year and has an electricity bill of 1,426 AU$ per year, therefor it has a calculated price of 1,426 / 4,026 = 0.354 AU$/kWh or 35.4 AU$ cent/kWh.
That is mathematically correct, but … 35.4 cent per kWh? That seems extremely high.
I was puzzled by the discrepancy between the average and typical prices of consumers in Victoria and South Australia … until I started to read the “Residential Electricity Price Trends” reports (the report that he used as the source of the consumption data for the representative consumers). I indeed found a graph with the trend of the residential electricity price in that report:
Figure 4. Residential electricity price trends from the report
Weirdly enough, those prices were also for the same “representative consumers” having the consumption that was used in the article, but those prices looked nothing like the prices that were used in the article… Also, it is clear that the residential electricity price of South Australia is not only the highest, it is also well above the rest. Exactly where I expected it to be. The Victoria electricity price is on the higher end of the middle, also exactly where I expected it to be.
This was the point where I started to realize that Brakels rather selectively used data from this report. This report did not only provide the annual electricity consumption of those representative consumers (these values were used in the article to create the first graph), but also their corresponding annual electricity bill (these values were not used, instead were replaced by the Maximiser plan data). Even the price per kWh for those representative consumers (based on the the annual consumption and annual bill data of the representative consumers) was provided in that report, yet for some reason he didn’t use it in his article…
So, why did Brakels go to such great lengths to gather that annual bill data from Origin Energy? He could have saved the effort and just could have taken the price per kWh for those representative consumers straight from the report! No calculations needed whatsoever and only one graph to create.
If he would have created that graph, this would be the result:
Figure 5. Cost of electricity per kWh with the data from the report
That is quite a difference with the graph that was shown in the article. Victoria lost its position of the most expensive state/territory and it is replaced by South Australia that is now head and shoulder above the rest. Which is in line with the average electricity price data that shows the same pattern.
Now everything becomes clear. The conclusion that South Australia has the second cheapest electricity in Australia is in fact an artifact of the replacement of the annual bill data from the report, combined with the use of semantics to eliminate two inconvenient data points.
Apply both tricks and South Australia will have the second cheapest electricity of all states (excluding the territories).
Don’t apply those tricks and South Australia will have the most expensive electricity of all states and territories.
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December 20, 2020 at 02:51PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--Vermont – Several feet of snow in a matter of hours – Video

Record snowfall – One of the biggest December storms in history .
________ 18 Dec 2020 – “ In Southern Vermont , snowfall began just before midnight Wednesday and continued Thursday , pilling up several feet in a matter of hours , ” writes Jolie Sherman .
.
“ The Vermont Agency of Transportation says it is one of the biggest December storms in history .
While some areas received 18 to 30 inches , Det .
Sgt .
Richard King with Ludlow Police Department says the town saw an excess of 44 inches ( 112 cm ) .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never seen anything like this before , ” said Jerry Scheumann .
“ I ’ ve been living here in New England for seven , eight years now , and Central Minnesota for 30 years before then .
So , this is incredible , ” said Scheumann .
“ Early Thursday morning the Ludlow resident and his wife woke up to more than 30 inches ( 75 cm ) of snow outside their window .
Sgt .
King says he ’ s never seen this much snow this soon in December .
Thanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post Vermont – Several feet of snow in a matter of hours – Video appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Record snowfall – One of the biggest December storms in history.
________
18 Dec 2020 – “In Southern Vermont, snowfall began just before midnight Wednesday and continued Thursday, pilling up several feet in a matter of hours,” writes Jolie Sherman.
.
“The Vermont Agency of Transportation says it is one of the biggest December storms in history. While some areas received 18 to 30 inches, Det. Sgt. Richard King with Ludlow Police Department says the town saw an excess of 44 inches (112 cm).
“This is incredible. I’ve never seen anything like this before,” said Jerry Scheumann.
“I’ve been living here in New England for seven, eight years now, and Central Minnesota for 30 years before then. So, this is incredible,” said Scheumann.
“Early Thursday morning the Ludlow resident and his wife woke up to more than 30 inches (75 cm) of snow outside their window. Sgt. King says he’s never seen this much snow this soon in December.
Thanks to Clay Olson for this link
The post Vermont – Several feet of snow in a matter of hours – Video appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 20, 2020 at 01:47PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--Washington Post uses Nazi anti-semitic rat imagery for Trump supporters in cartoon

We report .
You decide .
Compare today ’ s Washington Post cartoon by Pulitzer Prize-winner Ann Telnaes with the @ @ @ @ @ , 1939 in the Viennese newspaper in Das Kleine Blatt .
And Telnaes was proud @ @ @ @ @ is the WaPo link for the cartoon .
Indeed .
The WaPo is very dark @

We report. You decide. Compare today’s Washington Post cartoon by Pulitzer Prize-winner Ann Telnaes with the one published on February 2, 1939 in the Viennese newspaper in Das Kleine Blatt.
Here’s the WaPo cartoon…
And here’s the Nazi newspaper cartoon…
And Telnaes was proud of her work.
Here is the WaPo link for the cartoon.
“Democracy dies in darkness.”
Indeed. The WaPo is very dark.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--Asymptomatic spread(?) of Covid-19

Asymptomatic spread(?) of Covid-19

A new article in Nature [ link ] based on an extremely extensive and thorough analysis in Wuhan found no @ @ @ @ @ Cynically , comments on this paper question whether we can we trust anything coming out @ @ @ @ @ ?
This article motivated me to go to Google Scholar to look for papers related @ @ @ @ @ mostly found mathematical models , not careful analyses like the Wuhan study I have an @ @ @ @ @ of my employees in Colombia came down with Covid-19 , along with 11 family members @ @ @ @ @ no one had symptoms .
The first family member came down with symptoms two days @ @ @ @ @ , one family member died .
This paper [ link ] provides insights on aysmptomatic @ @ @ @ @ to make of this ?
Asymptomatic spread seems to be a key assumption under the @ @ @ @ @ In any event , we need a new Covid thread , I open this topic @ @ @ @ @ the denizens can identify some additional research on this .

by Judith Curry
I just finished reading an article entitled Asymptomatic Spread Revisited.
A new article in Nature [link] based on an extremely extensive and thorough analysis in Wuhan found no cases of asymptomatic transmission. Cynically, comments on this paper question whether we can we trust anything coming out of China on this subject?
This article motivated me to go to Google Scholar to look for papers related to asymptomatic spread. I mostly found mathematical models, not careful analyses like the Wuhan study
I have an anecdote on this. One of my employees in Colombia came down with Covid-19, along with 11 family members, after a gathering where no one had symptoms. The first family member came down with symptoms two days after the gathering. Unfortunately, one family member died.
This paper [link] provides insights on aysmptomatic versus pre-symptomatic.
So what to make of this? Asymptomatic spread seems to be a key assumption under the more extreme lockdown measures.
In any event, we need a new Covid thread, I open this topic up for discussion. Hopefully the denizens can identify some additional research on this.
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December 20, 2020 at 01:07PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--Forbes Climate Crisis: “Lock in lifestyle changes brought about by COVID-19”

According to Forbes contributor and clean tech entrepreneur Wal van Lierop , climate change is such an emergency that Covid-19 lockdowns should continue indefinitely as climate change lockdowns .
We Need An Operation Warp Speed To Battle Climate Change When I wrote about the new Roaring 20s last December , the world was largely unaware of COVID-19 .
Although the pandemic has caused indescribable tragedy and hardship , it has also shown that with proper motivation and financing , humanity can do the impossible .
That scientists developed safe , effective COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year is evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problems .
The lesson for climate change is that if we act with equal vigor , we can solve this crisis .
But we need an Operation Warp Speed for the Climate .
Thanks to the European and South Korean Green Deals and President-elect Joe Biden ’ s $ 2 trillion climate plan , the world is positioned to do it .
Just as the original Operation Warp Speed met the need for timely new treatments and vaccines , this operation would deliver game-changing innovations for our climate crisis .
1 .
Lock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When COVID-19 lockdowns began in spring , people adjusted their behavior , and daily CO emissions worldwide decreased by an average of 17 % .
BP and other energy companies expect COVID-19 to permanently dent demand for fossil fuels .
We have discovered that worldwide lifestyle changes are possible and have a massive impact on emissions .
A recent survey commissioned by JLL JLL +0.6 % , a commercial real estate company , found that 72 % of office workers want a hybrid model in which they continue work at home several days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A quarter want to continue working remotely full time .
Let ’ s lock those changes in to reduce commuter pollution .
Meanwhile , we need a way to get people safely back onto public transport ( its usage is down ) .
And for cases where transportation is unavoidable or has even increased , like with online shopping and freight shipping , it ’ s time to scale electric trucks and hydrogen-powered cargo ships .
While we ’ re at it , let ’ s ensure that business travel never returns to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time , there ’ s no reason to take one-day trips across the globe .
Regular business meetings can be done more efficiently virtually , complemented by in-person contact only once in a while .
Governments could cement these lifestyle changes with tax deductions and by finally ending fossil fuels subsidies , as I wrote last year .
In response , people would reduce their fossil fuel usage , and innovators would develop carbon-free alternatives sooner than they would otherwise .
If a deadly virus changed our lifestyle at Warp Speed , why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do the same ?

According to Forbes contributor and clean tech entrepreneur Wal van Lierop, climate change is such an emergency that Covid-19 lockdowns should continue indefinitely as climate change lockdowns.
We Need An Operation Warp Speed To Battle Climate Change
Wal van Lierop
Dec 19, 2020,04:42pm EST
When I wrote about the new Roaring 20s last December, the world was largely unaware of COVID-19. Although the pandemic has caused indescribable tragedy and hardship, it has also shown that with proper motivation and financing, humanity can do the impossible. That scientists developed safe, effective COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year is evidence of our untapped potential to solve global problems.
The lesson for climate change is that if we act with equal vigor, we can solve this crisis. But we need an Operation Warp Speed for the Climate. Thanks to the European and South Korean Green Deals and President-elect Joe Biden’s $2 trillion climate plan, the world is positioned to do it. Just as the original Operation Warp Speed met the need for timely new treatments and vaccines, this operation would deliver game-changing innovations for our climate crisis.
…
1. Lock in lifestyle changes brought about by COVID-19
When COVID-19 lockdowns began in spring, people adjusted their behavior, and daily CO 2 emissions worldwide decreased by an average of 17%. BP and other energy companies expect COVID-19 to permanently dent demand for fossil fuels.
We have discovered that worldwide lifestyle changes are possible and have a massive impact on emissions. A recent survey commissioned by JLL JLL +0.6%, a commercial real estate company, found that 72% of office workers want a hybrid model in which they continue work at home several days per week after the crisis ends. A quarter want to continue working remotely full time. Let’s lock those changes in to reduce commuter pollution. Meanwhile, we need a way to get people safely back onto public transport (its usage is down). And for cases where transportation is unavoidable or has even increased, like with online shopping and freight shipping, it’s time to scale electric trucks and hydrogen-powered cargo ships.
While we’re at it, let’s ensure that business travel never returns to its former excesses. Most of the time, there’s no reason to take one-day trips across the globe. Regular business meetings can be done more efficiently virtually, complemented by in-person contact only once in a while.
Governments could cement these lifestyle changes with tax deductions and by finally ending fossil fuels subsidies, as I wrote last year. In response, people would reduce their fossil fuel usage, and innovators would develop carbon-free alternatives sooner than they would otherwise. If a deadly virus changed our lifestyle at Warp Speed, why can’t a deadly climate crisis do the same?
…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--Assessing the Alleged Benefits of EV’s: Exposing the Fantasy – Part 2

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Assessing the Alleged Benefits of EV’s
Exposing the Electric Vehicle Fantasy – Part 2
See Part 1: https://blog.friendsofscience.org/2020/12/19/exposing-the-ev-fantasy-the-real-cost-of-evs/
Executive Summary
There is a widespread perception that passenger and commercial vehicles … Continue reading
The post Assessing the Alleged Benefits of EV’s: Exposing the Fantasy – Part 2 first appeared on Friends of Science Calgary.
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December 20, 2020 at 12:05PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--YouTube Covering Up Crimes Against Children

A few months ago I posted a video which consisted entirely of CSPAN coverage of a US Senate ceremony .
@ @ @ @ @ of Joe Biden groping children .
YouTube censored the video for “ child safety ” @ @ @ @ @ behavior as “ predatory.
” If YouTube considered Joe Biden to be a sexual predator @ @ @ @ @ to make this information public before he was in a position to hurt millions of @ @ @ @ @ chose to cover it up .
Here is the video .

A few months ago I posted a video which consisted entirely of CSPAN coverage of a US Senate ceremony. The video contained numerous sequences of Joe Biden groping children. YouTube censored the video for “child safety” and described Biden’s behavior as “predatory.”
If YouTube considered Joe Biden to be a sexual predator, they had an obligation to make this information public before he was in a position to hurt millions of children. But instead YouTube chose to cover it up. Here is the video.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-20--French professor thrown in psych ward for questioning COVID-19 vaccines

( Natural News ) A pack of French law enforcement “ gendarmes ” operating under military command arrested and imprisoned @ @ @ @ @ questioning the safety and effectiveness of Wuhan coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) vaccines .
Jean-Bernard Fourtillan @ @ @ @ @ opposition to “ coof ” jabs , was forcibly removed from his temporary home in @ @ @ @ @ put into solitary confinement at a psychiatric hospital in Uzès , all because he does @ @ @ @ @ that are being imposed on the masses .
Thanks to Winston Gestapo Tracer Smith for @ @ @ @ @ professor thrown in psych ward for questioning COVID-19 vaccines appeared first on Ice Age Now @

Forcibly removed from his home.
(Natural News) A pack of French law enforcement “gendarmes” operating under military command arrested and imprisoned a retired university professor for questioning the safety and effectiveness of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines.
Jean-Bernard Fourtillan,” known for his opposition to “coof” jabs, was forcibly removed from his temporary home in the south of France and put into solitary confinement at a psychiatric hospital in Uzès, all because he does not trust the COVID-19 vaccines that are being imposed on the masses.
See entire article:
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-12-17-professor-abducted-psych-ward-questioning-covid19-vaccines.html
Thanks to Winston Gestapo Tracer Smith for this link
The post French professor thrown in psych ward for questioning COVID-19 vaccines appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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December 20, 2020 at 11:25AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-12-21--Judy Terry: The demands to make car travel more expensive ignore the political and economic realitie

Judy Terry is a marketing professional and a former local councillor in Suffolk .
Lifelong Conservatives are not alone in losing patience with Downing Street ’ s arrogant dictatorship , and its headline-grabbing policies , often based on questionable data , but designed to appease a minority of campaigners who don ’ t suffer the financial constraints of the rest of us .
Instead of patronising and banning , it ’ s time to engage with members of the public , and trust them .
The Chancellor ’ s frank assessment of the economic challenges ahead , as Government borrowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; lavish unnecessary spending has to be brought under control , so let ’ s hope – as he joked he would – he revokes the Prime Minister ’ s credit card .
Constant policy changes are expensive , undermining confidence within business , the population and public sector , inhibiting growth , which will be crucial over the coming years .
A case in point is the PM ’ s sudden ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars in just nine years ’ time , instead of the original 2040 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poorest and most disadvantaged beyond the Westminster bubble : the ‘ left behind ’ in the Red Wall and rural areas .
For example , Suffolk is a net contributor to the Treasury , but , as I saw first hand in my ten years as a councillor and primary school governor , it has areas of serious deprivation beyond the posh weekend homes by the seafront .
75,000 people , including 22,000 in older age groups , are in income deprivation ; average salaries are around £28,000 , although a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ £25,000 a year in Doncaster , and a national average of £38,600 ( £33,300 for women ) .
MPs , of course are paid £81,932 a year , plus expenses and allowances for additional responsibilities , as well as generous financial entitlements at the end of their ‘ service ’ .
It is also now evident that many receive additional income from a range of other employment , as directors or advisers to major corporations – opportunities not available to ‘ ordinary people ’ .
Unlike Ed Miliband , the ‘ two kitchens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shapps , the Transport Secretary , with his private plane ( making him part of the one per cent of the world ’ s population responsible for harmful emissions ) and £44,000 electric car , the majority of people are likely to struggle with daily expenses .
The post Judy Terry : The demands to make car travel more expensive ignore the political and economic realities appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Judy Terry is a marketing professional and a former local councillor in Suffolk.
Lifelong Conservatives are not alone in losing patience with Downing Street’s arrogant dictatorship, and its headline-grabbing policies, often based on questionable data, but designed to appease a minority of campaigners who don’t suffer the financial constraints of the rest of us. Instead of patronising and banning, it’s time to engage with members of the public, and trust them.
The Chancellor’s frank assessment of the economic challenges ahead, as Government borrowing hits record levels was a wakeup call; lavish unnecessary spending has to be brought under control, so let’s hope – as he joked he would – he revokes the Prime Minister’s credit card. Constant policy changes are expensive, undermining confidence within business, the population and public sector, inhibiting growth, which will be crucial over the coming years. A case in point is the PM’s sudden ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars in just nine years’ time, instead of the original 2040 deadline.
This decision will impact the poorest and most disadvantaged beyond the Westminster bubble: the ‘left behind’ in the Red Wall and rural areas. For example, Suffolk is a net contributor to the Treasury, but, as I saw first hand in my ten years as a councillor and primary school governor, it has areas of serious deprivation beyond the posh weekend homes by the seafront. 75,000 people, including 22,000 in older age groups, are in income deprivation; average salaries are around £28,000, although a lot of employment is seasonal. This compares with £25,000 a year in Doncaster, and a national average of £38,600 (£33,300 for women).
MPs, of course are paid £81,932 a year, plus expenses and allowances for additional responsibilities, as well as generous financial entitlements at the end of their ‘service’. It is also now evident that many receive additional income from a range of other employment, as directors or advisers to major corporations – opportunities not available to ‘ordinary people’.
Unlike Ed Miliband, the ‘two kitchens’ Doncaster North MP, or Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, with his private plane (making him part of the one per cent of the world’s population responsible for harmful emissions) and £44,000 electric car, the majority of people are likely to struggle with daily expenses.
The post Judy Terry: The demands to make car travel more expensive ignore the political and economic realities appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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December 21, 2020 at 06:09AM


Merry Christmas!

Wishing you joy this holiday season .
Celebrationing will be more difficult than usual , but fabulous technology – Skype @ @ @ @ @ can help us spend time with loved ones we won ’ t be seeing in @ @ @ @ @ challenges , life is grand .
And finite .
We ’ ll only get one @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
Let us begin this New Year with hearts filled with hope .

This blog will return January 11th.
Wishing you joy this holiday season. Celebrationing will be more difficult than usual, but fabulous technology – Skype, Zoom, FaceTime – can help us spend time with loved ones we won’t be seeing in person.
Despite our current challenges, life is grand. And finite. We’ll only get one chance at Christmas Day, 2020.
*
Let us begin this New Year with hearts filled with hope.