iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Bandwagon of doom washed away by tidal wave of data

A new paper shows that predictions of increased flood and drought are wrong According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , for each degree of global warming , the amount of water vapour in the air should increase by about 6-7 % .
As with so many things the IPCC talks about , this small change is supposed to lead to calamity .
That ’ s because increasing water vapour is supposed to lead to “ intensification of the hydrological cycle ” , in other words floods and droughts .
Demetris Koutsoyiannis , a hydrologist at the National Technical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upon himself to undertake a major review of the scientific data to see what evidence there is for this actually happening in practice .
His findings , currently up for open peer review at the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences , [ i ] make for uncomfortable reading for the IPCC and its fellow-travellers on the bandwagon of doom .
It seems , for example , that although relative humidity is supposed to stay constant under global warming , it is actually falling .
Dew points are supposed to be increasing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particular there appears to be little or no change in equatorial regions , where the largest share of evaporation of water from the oceans takes place .
If we ’ re not seeing change there , then increased flooding is off the agenda .
And Koutsoyiannis finds that the amount of water vapour in the air is increasing at roughly one third of the IPCC ’ s predicted rate .
If the rate of water vapour increase really is so low , then by the time we hit the ( in ) famous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll still only have experienced a 4 % increase , which as Koutsoyiannis points out is negligible given the normal variability of hydrological cycles .
Where are the deluges and floods going to come from ?
It doesn ’ t end there either .
There are lots of other ways in which intensification of the hydrological cycle might show up .
You can measure the amount of water vapour in columns of the atmosphere .
That should be increasing with global warming too , right ?
Koutsoyiannis finds no trend .
Average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – the IPCC says by 1-3 % per degree of global warming .
The problem with this claim is that it ’ s within the “ noise ” of normal variability anyway ; no surprise then that Koutsoyiannis sees no meaningful trends in the data .
The limited data on evaporation are telling the same story ( or lack of one ) too .
What about extremes of rainfall ?
Koutsoyannis reviews a variety of measures : changes in daily maxima , days with rainfall over a threshold and so on , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sea .
And he draws a blank everywhere .
As well as being an eminent scientist , Koutosoyiannis also has a deep interest in the scientific knowledge and practice of the ancient world , and this has coloured his view of the climate scare .
As he says in his conclusions , the small changes that are exciting climate scientists today would not even have been discussed by ancient engineers , who would have seen them as just noise in the ever-changing patterns of hydrological cycles .
Similarly , he points out that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to those making practical decisions about flood protection and water storage .
And he wonders whether , with the data refuting the climatologists ’ predictions so clearly , it isn ’ t time that hydrologists shifted their attention away from prophecies of doom , and back onto making a real contribution to people ’ s lives .
You can see his point .
The post Bandwagon of doom washed away by tidal wave of data appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

A new paper shows that predictions of increased flood and drought are wrong
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for each degree of global warming, the amount of water vapour in the air should increase by about 6-7%. As with so many things the IPCC talks about, this small change is supposed to lead to calamity. That’s because increasing water vapour is supposed to lead to “intensification of the hydrological cycle”, in other words floods and droughts.
Demetris Koutsoyiannis, a hydrologist at the National
Technical University of Athens, has taken it upon himself to undertake a major
review of the scientific data to see what evidence there is for this actually
happening in practice. His findings, currently up for open peer review at the journal
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,[i]
make for uncomfortable reading for the IPCC and its fellow-travellers on the bandwagon
of doom.
It seems, for example, that although relative humidity is supposed to stay constant under global warming, it is actually falling. Dew points are supposed to be increasing, but mostly they are not; in particular there appears to be little or no change in equatorial regions, where the largest share of evaporation of water from the oceans takes place. If we’re not seeing change there, then increased flooding is off the agenda.
And Koutsoyiannis finds that the amount of water vapour in
the air is increasing at roughly one third of the IPCC’s predicted rate. If the
rate of water vapour increase really is so low, then by the time we hit the
(in)famous two-degree target for global warming, we’ll still only have experienced
a 4% increase, which as Koutsoyiannis points out is negligible given the normal
variability of hydrological cycles. Where are the deluges and floods going to
come from?
It doesn’t end there either. There are lots of other ways in
which intensification of the hydrological cycle might show up. You can measure
the amount of water vapour in columns of the atmosphere. That should be increasing
with global warming too, right? Koutsoyiannis finds no trend. Average rainfall
across the planet should increase too – the IPCC says by 1-3% per degree of
global warming. The problem with this claim is that it’s within the “noise” of
normal variability anyway; no surprise then that Koutsoyiannis sees no
meaningful trends in the data. The limited data on evaporation are telling the
same story (or lack of one) too.
What about extremes of rainfall? Koutsoyannis reviews a variety of measures: changes in daily maxima, days with rainfall over a threshold and so on, he looks on land and he looks at sea. And he draws a blank everywhere.
As well as being an eminent scientist, Koutosoyiannis also has a deep interest in the scientific knowledge and practice of the ancient world, and this has coloured his view of the climate scare. As he says in his conclusions, the small changes that are exciting climate scientists today would not even have been discussed by ancient engineers, who would have seen them as just noise in the ever-changing patterns of hydrological cycles. Similarly, he points out that such small changes are of no interest to those making practical decisions about flood protection and water storage. And he wonders whether, with the data refuting the climatologists’ predictions so clearly, it isn’t time that hydrologists shifted their attention away from prophecies of doom, and back onto making a real contribution to people’s lives.
You can see his point.
[i] https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2020-120/
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April 2, 2020 at 03:54AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Coronavirus Lessons From the Asteroid That Didn’t Hit Earth

Scary projections based on faulty data can put policy makers under pressure to adopt draconian measures .
The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically demonstrated the limits of scientific modeling to predict the future .
The most consequential coronavirus model , produced by a team at Imperial College London , tipped the British government , which had until then pursued a cautious strategy , into precipitate action , culminating in the lockdown under which we are all currently laboring .
With the Imperial team talking in terms of 250,000 to 510,000 deaths in the U.K. and social media aflame with demands for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Boris Johnson had no other option .
But last week , a team from Oxford University put forward an alternative model of how the pandemic might play out , suggesting a much less frightening future and a speedy end to the current nightmare .
How should the government know who is right ?
It is quite possible that both teams are wrong .
Academic studies often suffer from a lack of quality control , as peer review is usually brief and cursory .
In normal times this doesn ’ t matter much , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find their way into the policy world .
In the current emergency , it is vital to check that the epidemiological models have been correctly assembled and that there are no inadvertent mistakes .
Several researchers have apparently asked to see Imperial ’ s calculations , but Prof. Neil Ferguson , the man leading the team , has said that the computer code is 13 years old and thousands of lines of it “ undocumented , ” making it hard for anyone to work with , let alone take it apart to identify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will be published in a week or so , but in the meantime reasonable people might wonder whether something made with 13-year-old , undocumented computer code should be used to justify shutting down the economy .
Meanwhile , the authors of the Oxford model have promised that their code will be published “ as soon as possible.
” It isn ’ t only the U.K. that ’ s plagued by inscrutable models that describe very different futures .
It ’ s a problem that governments around the world now face .
Is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make the predictions put in front of policy makers more reliable ?
The post Coronavirus Lessons From the Asteroid That Didn ’ t Hit Earth appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Scary projections based on faulty data can put policy makers under pressure to adopt draconian measures.
The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically demonstrated the limits of scientific modeling to predict the future. The most consequential coronavirus model, produced by a team at Imperial College London, tipped the British government, which had until then pursued a cautious strategy, into precipitate action, culminating in the lockdown under which we are all currently laboring. With the Imperial team talking in terms of 250,000 to 510,000 deaths in the U.K. and social media aflame with demands for something to be done, Prime Minister Boris Johnson had no other option.
But last week, a team from Oxford University put forward an alternative model of how the pandemic might play out, suggesting a much less frightening future and a speedy end to the current nightmare.
How should the government know who is right? It is quite possible that both teams are wrong. Academic studies often suffer from a lack of quality control, as peer review is usually brief and cursory. In normal times this doesn’t matter much, but it’s different when studies find their way into the policy world. In the current emergency, it is vital to check that the epidemiological models have been correctly assembled and that there are no inadvertent mistakes.
Several researchers have apparently asked to see Imperial’s calculations, but Prof. Neil Ferguson, the man leading the team, has said that the computer code is 13 years old and thousands of lines of it “undocumented,” making it hard for anyone to work with, let alone take it apart to identify potential errors. He has promised that it will be published in a week or so, but in the meantime reasonable people might wonder whether something made with 13-year-old, undocumented computer code should be used to justify shutting down the economy. Meanwhile, the authors of the Oxford model have promised that their code will be published “as soon as possible.”
It isn’t only the U.K. that’s plagued by inscrutable models that describe very different futures. It’s a problem that governments around the world now face. Is there anything that can be done to make the predictions put in front of policy makers more reliable?
The post Coronavirus Lessons From the Asteroid That Didn’t Hit Earth appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 2, 2020 at 03:46AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu Ea

Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu Each Year

During the winter of 2016- ’ 17 nearly 25,000 Italian citizens died from the seasonal flu .
No one blinked .
In well over 3 months since its purported inception , the COVID-19 virus is claimed to be responsible for less than 50,000 deaths globally ( as of the 1st of April ) .
Every year , about 500,000 people from across the world die from the five-month-long seasonal flu .
During the last pandemic , the swine flu ( H1N1 ) killed up to 575,000 people .
This was interestingly classified as “ fairly mild ” for total pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A recent study ( Rosano et al.
, 2019 ) indicates that 68,000 Italians died from the flu during the 2013- ’ 14 to 2016- ’ 17 flu seasons .
Specifically , there were 24,981 flu deaths in 2016- ’ 17 and 20,259 seasonal flu fatalities occurred in 2014- ’ 15 .
These high death rates from the flu epidemic didn ’ t receive global attention .
Italy currently ( 1 April , 2020 ) has surpassed 13,100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 infections .
But it is highly likely the COVID-19 virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not weeks .
According to two Stanford medical professors , an entire Italian town of 3,300 was tested for the virus on the 6th of March ( 2020 ) .
2.7 % tests came back positive , which was 130 times greater an infection rate than the infection rate confirmed by that date .
What this means is the infection rate is perhaps two orders of magnitude more extensive than we know .
Accurate calculation of death rates can only be inferred from dividing the deaths by the total number of infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Consequently , the death rate from infection could be far lower than we currently imagine…on par with , or even lower than , the seasonal flu .

During the winter of 2016-’17 nearly 25,000 Italian citizens died from the seasonal flu. No one blinked.
In well over 3 months since its purported inception, the COVID-19 virus is claimed to be responsible for less than 50,000 deaths globally (as of the 1st of April).
Every year, about 500,000 people from across the world die from the five-month-long seasonal flu.
During the last pandemic, the swine flu (H1N1) killed up to 575,000 people.
This was interestingly classified as “fairly mild” for total pandemic deaths in 2012 (ABC NEWS).
Image Source: ABC NEWS
A closer look at Italy
A recent study (Rosano et al., 2019) indicates that 68,000 Italians died from the flu during the 2013-’14 to 2016-’17 flu seasons.
Specifically, there were 24,981 flu deaths in 2016-’17 and 20,259 seasonal flu fatalities occurred in 2014-’15.
These high death rates from the flu epidemic didn’t receive global attention.
Italy currently (1 April, 2020) has surpassed 13,100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 infections.
But it is highly likely the COVID-19 virus has been circulating throughout Italy for months, not weeks.
According to two Stanford medical professors, an entire Italian town of 3,300 was tested for the virus on the 6th of March (2020). 2.7% tests came back positive, which was 130 times greater an infection rate than the infection rate confirmed by that date.
Image Source: the Blaze
What this means is the infection rate is perhaps two orders of magnitude more extensive than we know.
Accurate calculation of death rates can only be inferred from dividing the deaths by the total number of infected cases – not just the confirmed ones.
Consequently, the death rate from infection could be far lower than we currently imagine…on par with, or even lower than, the seasonal flu.
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April 2, 2020 at 03:42AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Ancient Antarctica Rainforest Discovery Suggests Prehistoric World Much Warmer Than Thought

Researchers have found evidence of rainforests near the South Pole 90 million years ago , suggesting the climate was exceptionally warm at the time .
A team from the UK and Germany discovered forest soil from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole .
Their analysis of the preserved roots , pollen and spores shows that the world at that time was a lot warmer than previously thought .
The discovery and analysis were carried out by an international team of researchers led by geoscientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ researchers .
Their findings are published today in Nature .
Co-author Professor Tina van de Flierdt , from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial , said : “ The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional , but even more surprising is the world it reveals .
Even during months of darkness , swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole , revealing an even warmer climate than we expected.
” The work also suggests that the carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) levels in the atmosphere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period , 115-80 million years ago , challenging climate models of the period .
The mid-Cretaceous was the heyday of the dinosaurs but was also the warmest period in the past 140 million years , with temperatures in the tropics as high as 35 degrees Celsius and sea level 170 meters higher than today .
However , little was known about the environment south of the Antarctic Circle at this time .
Now , researchers have discovered evidence of a temperate rainforest in the region , such as would be found in New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four-month polar night , meaning for a third of every year there was no life-giving sunlight at all .
The presence of the forest suggests average temperatures were around 12 degrees Celsius and that there was unlikely to be an ice cap at the South Pole at the time .
The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica .
One section of the core , that would have originally been deposited on land , caught @ @ @ @ @ @ @ color .
The team CT-scanned the section of the core and discovered a dense network of fossil roots , which was so well preserved that they could make out individual cell structures .
The sample also contained countless traces of pollen and spores from plants , including the first remnants of flowering plants ever found at these high Antarctic latitudes .
To reconstruct the environment of this preserved forest , the team assessed the climatic conditions under which the plants ’ modern descendants live , as well as analysing temperature and precipitation indicators @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the annual mean air temperature was around 12 degrees Celsius ; roughly two degrees warmer than the mean temperature in Germany today .
Average summer temperatures were around 19 degrees Celsius ; water temperatures in the rivers and swamps reached up to 20 degrees ; and the amount and intensity of rainfall in West Antarctica were similar to those in today ’ s Wales .
To get these conditions , the researchers conclude that 90 million years ago the Antarctic continent was covered with dense vegetation , there were no land-ice masses on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the South Pole region , and the CO concentration in the atmosphere was far higher than previously assumed for the Cretaceous .
Lead author Dr. Johann Klages , from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , said : “ Before our study , the general assumption was that the global carbon dioxide concentration in the Cretaceous was roughly 1000 ppm .
But in our model-based experiments , it took concentration levels of 1120 to 1680 ppm to reach the average temperatures back then in the Antarctic.
” Temperate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cretaceous warmth ’ by Klages , J.P. et al is published in Nature .
Based on a press release by the Alfred Wegener Institute .
The post Ancient Antarctica Rainforest Discovery Suggests Prehistoric World Much Warmer Than Thought appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Researchers have found evidence of rainforests near the South Pole 90 million years ago, suggesting the climate was exceptionally warm at the time.
Illustration of the Antarctic rainforest. Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut/James McKay
A team from the UK and Germany discovered forest soil from the Cretaceous period within 900 km of the South Pole. Their analysis of the preserved roots, pollen and spores shows that the world at that time was a lot warmer than previously thought.
“The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional, but even more surprising is the world it reveals.” — Professor Tina van de Flierdt
The discovery and analysis were carried out by an international team of researchers led by geoscientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany and including Imperial College London researchers. Their findings are published today in Nature.
Co-author Professor Tina van de Flierdt, from the Department of Earth Science & Engineering at Imperial, said: “The preservation of this 90-million-year-old forest is exceptional, but even more surprising is the world it reveals. Even during months of darkness, swampy temperate rainforests were able to grow close to the South Pole, revealing an even warmer climate than we expected.”
Warmest period in the past 140 million years
The work also suggests that the carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere were higher than expected during the mid-Cretaceous period, 115-80 million years ago, challenging climate models of the period.
The mid-Cretaceous was the heyday of the dinosaurs but was also the warmest period in the past 140 million years, with temperatures in the tropics as high as 35 degrees Celsius and sea level 170 meters higher than today.
Professor Tina van de Flierdt and Dr Johann Klages work on the sample of ancient soil. Credit: T. Ronge, Alfred-Wegener-Institut
However, little was known about the environment south of the Antarctic Circle at this time. Now, researchers have discovered evidence of a temperate rainforest in the region, such as would be found in New Zealand today. This was despite a four-month polar night, meaning for a third of every year there was no life-giving sunlight at all.
The presence of the forest suggests average temperatures were around 12 degrees Celsius and that there was unlikely to be an ice cap at the South Pole at the time.
Reconstructing the climate
The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica. One section of the core, that would have originally been deposited on land, caught the researchers’ attention with its strange color.
Map of the drill site and how to continents were arranged 90 million years ago. Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut
The team CT-scanned the section of the core and discovered a dense network of fossil roots, which was so well preserved that they could make out individual cell structures. The sample also contained countless traces of pollen and spores from plants, including the first remnants of flowering plants ever found at these high Antarctic latitudes.
To reconstruct the environment of this preserved forest, the team assessed the climatic conditions under which the plants’ modern descendants live, as well as analysing temperature and precipitation indicators within the sample.
Covered in dense vegetation
They found that the annual mean air temperature was around 12 degrees Celsius; roughly two degrees warmer than the mean temperature in Germany today. Average summer temperatures were around 19 degrees Celsius; water temperatures in the rivers and swamps reached up to 20 degrees; and the amount and intensity of rainfall in West Antarctica were similar to those in today’s Wales.
To get these conditions, the researchers conclude that 90 million years ago the Antarctic continent was covered with dense vegetation, there were no land-ice masses on the scale of an ice sheet in the South Pole region, and the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere was far higher than previously assumed for the Cretaceous.
Lead author Dr. Johann Klages, from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, said: “Before our study, the general assumption was that the global carbon dioxide concentration in the Cretaceous was roughly 1000 ppm. But in our model-based experiments, it took concentration levels of 1120 to 1680 ppm to reach the average temperatures back then in the Antarctic.”
Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth’ by Klages, J.P. et al is published in Nature.
Based on a press release by the Alfred Wegener Institute.
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April 2, 2020 at 03:04AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Covid-19 & Climate Change: Asia’s Policy Choices

The strictures against fossil fuels , as part of the liturgy of climate change belief , is egregious to the extreme when the real and immediate challenge of coping with Covid-19 faces each and every Asian today .
The Asian continent spans a vast geographical area .
The novel coronavirus emerged in the eastern part – Wuhan , China – and quickly spread to other countries within a couple of months after first reported cases in December .
In Asia ’ s western reaches lie the Maldives , long the posterchild of the international climate change establishment which claims , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tourist islands will be submerged as sea-levels rapidly rise with global warming .
Asian governments now face stark trade-offs , as the needs of an immediate , potentially catastrophic health crisis ( and its devastating economic fallout ) compete with the policy requirements of what the climate industrial complex deems as an equally threatening existential threat of “ climate crisis ” .
As Asian policymakers grapple with immediate measures to handle the epidemic with unprecedented lockdowns of entire cities , provinces or even nationwide , they are no doubt keenly observing how their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meeting this common challenge .
Few if any of the developments in the West will inspire confidence .
The US Congress passed a $ 2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package which was signed by President Trump last Friday .
But this was only after a week of partisan delay caused by the Democrats ’ insistence on provisions that had little to do with handling the pandemic .
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi failed in her bid to incorporate climate change provisions in the stimulus bill .
In an expansive wish list , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and wind energy and emissions standards for airlines by 2025 as part of the party ’ s Green New Deal ambitions .
To be fair , Ms Pelosi is not alone in the cynical attempt to “ never let a good crisis go to waste ” .
Across the pond , European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doubled down on the EU ’ s climate commitment with a €1 trillion Green Deal .
She presented the European Climate Law on March 4th , when the Wuhan virus was fast metastasizing into a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would legally bind EU members to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 , was presented by Ms. von Leyen while flanked by none other than teenage Green icon Greta Thunberg .
In an odd twist of logic , Frans Timmermans , leading the Commission ’ s work on the European Green Deal , said that the focus on the coronavirus pandemic “ showed the need for climate laws ” .
In the revolutionary language of the EC ’ s Green Deal , all policy matters including coronavirus-related public health and economic stimulus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with net zero emissions by mid-century .
International bureaucrats have echoed these calls for stiffening the resolve to pursue climate legislation in the face of the mounting Covid-19 crisis .
Fatih Birol , head of the International Energy Agency and a prominent climate policy advocate , advised world leaders and heads of financial institutions to exploit the “ historic opportunity ” presented by the pandemic and “ use the current situation to step up our ambition to tackle climate change.
” Christiana Figueres , former head of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tweeted “ Well put @ IEABirol…We have a massive crisis = opportunity on our hands .
We can not afford to waste it .
Recovery must be green.
” Not surprisingly , these incessant calls for governments to finance ever-greater ambitions in emission reductions while the coronavirus pandemic imposes immediate hardships on afflicted countries have led to strong objections .
One EU diplomat put it baldly : “ We simply don ’ t have the money to do everything.
” Another said that “ Maybe it will be less on Green Deal but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can not just continue with the plans and programmes we had so far .
They were developed for a world without coronavirus.
” Poland ’ s government , never a fan of the EU ’ s Green ambitions , stated that the country — heavily dependent on coal-fired power generation — would not be able to achieve the EU ’ s climate change goals because of the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on its economy .
Holland , a richer European economy at the forefront of the EU ’ s climate ambitions , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in announcing that no new measures will be taken to reduce emissions .
Bavaria ’ s Chief Minister called on the federal government to provide relief from the deepening pandemic crisis by suspending carbon taxes and renewable energy subsidies which have made electricity rates in Germany among the world ’ s highest .
For policymakers around the world , the Covid-19 pandemic has provided a reality check , a painful reminder of what a real existential crisis looks and feels like .
Inevitably , the global focus on the Covid-19 pandemic has come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hypothetical model-based notions of a future “ climate emergency ” .
Perhaps the most consequential price to be paid on the trade-off between the two policy objectives will be in Asia , the world ’ s most populous continent .
Japan , the world ’ s third largest economy and one of its richest , is the first major signatory of the Paris Agreement to submit updated plans on cutting emissions in preparation for the now-postponed November 2020 Glasgow meeting .
It was widely criticised by climate campaigners for failing to intensify emission @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spirit ’ of the Paris Agreement .
Many an Asian policymaker will see Japan ’ s refusal to submit tighter emissions reduction targets in view of the Covid-19 pandemic as pragmatic and necessary .
China , the world ’ s second largest economy and its biggest emitter of greenhouse gases , plans a fiscal stimulus worth hundreds of billions of dollars to restore economic growth .
Given the country ’ s economic structure as the ‘ workshop of the world ’ , this implies the resuscitation of carbon-intensive activity , ranging from coal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , plastics , and refineries — and reviving jobs for the multitudes who work in automobiles , aviation , shipping , utilities , construction , agriculture , manufacturing and utilities .
The post Covid-19 & Climate Change : Asia ’ s Policy Choices appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

The strictures against fossil fuels, as part of the liturgy of climate change belief, is egregious to the extreme when the real and immediate challenge of coping with Covid-19 faces each and every Asian today.
The Asian continent spans a vast geographical area. The novel coronavirus emerged in the eastern part – Wuhan, China – and quickly spread to other countries within a couple of months after first reported cases in December. In Asia’s western reaches lie the Maldives, long the posterchild of the international climate change establishment which claims, among other things, that the low-lying tourist islands will be submerged as sea-levels rapidly rise with global warming.
Asian governments now face stark trade-offs, as the needs of an immediate, potentially catastrophic health crisis (and its devastating economic fallout) compete with the policy requirements of what the climate industrial complex deems as an equally threatening existential threat of “climate crisis”. As Asian policymakers grapple with immediate measures to handle the epidemic with unprecedented lockdowns of entire cities, provinces or even nationwide, they are no doubt keenly observing how their counterparts in the US and Europe are meeting this common challenge. Few if any of the developments in the West will inspire confidence.
The US Congress passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package which was signed by President Trump last Friday. But this was only after a week of partisan delay caused by the Democrats’ insistence on provisions that had little to do with handling the pandemic. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi failed in her bid to incorporate climate change provisions in the stimulus bill. In an expansive wish list, the bill included new tax credits for solar and wind energy and emissions standards for airlines by 2025 as part of the party’s Green New Deal ambitions.
To be fair, Ms Pelosi is not alone in the cynical attempt to “never let a good crisis go to waste”. Across the pond, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doubled down on the EU’s climate commitment with a €1 trillion Green Deal. She presented the European Climate Law on March 4th, when the Wuhan virus was fast metastasizing into a global pandemic. The law, which would legally bind EU members to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, was presented by Ms. von Leyen while flanked by none other than teenage Green icon Greta Thunberg. In an odd twist of logic, Frans Timmermans, leading the Commission’s work on the European Green Deal, said that the focus on the coronavirus pandemic “showed the need for climate laws”. In the revolutionary language of the EC’s Green Deal, all policy matters including coronavirus-related public health and economic stimulus legislation would have to be in line with net zero emissions by mid-century.
International bureaucrats have echoed these calls for stiffening the resolve to pursue climate legislation in the face of the mounting Covid-19 crisis. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency and a prominent climate policy advocate, advised world leaders and heads of financial institutions to exploit the “historic opportunity” presented by the pandemic and “use the current situation to step up our ambition to tackle climate change.” Christiana Figueres, former head of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and architect of the Paris Agreement, tweeted “Well put @IEABirol…We have a massive crisis = opportunity on our hands. We cannot afford to waste it. Recovery must be green.”
Not surprisingly, these incessant calls for governments to finance ever-greater ambitions in emission reductions while the coronavirus pandemic imposes immediate hardships on afflicted countries have led to strong objections. One EU diplomat put it baldly: “We simply don’t have the money to do everything.” Another said that “Maybe it will be less on Green Deal but more on trying to restart the economies…We cannot just continue with the plans and programmes we had so far. They were developed for a world without coronavirus.”
Poland’s government, never a fan of the EU’s Green ambitions, stated that the country — heavily dependent on coal-fired power generation — would not be able to achieve the EU’s climate change goals because of the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on its economy. Holland, a richer European economy at the forefront of the EU’s climate ambitions, cited the toll of the virus pandemic in announcing that no new measures will be taken to reduce emissions. Bavaria’s Chief Minister called on the federal government to provide relief from the deepening pandemic crisis by suspending carbon taxes and renewable energy subsidies which have made electricity rates in Germany among the world’s highest.
For policymakers around the world, the Covid-19 pandemic has provided a reality check, a painful reminder of what a real existential crisis looks and feels like. Inevitably, the global focus on the Covid-19 pandemic has come at the expense of attention paid to hypothetical model-based notions of a future “climate emergency”. Perhaps the most consequential price to be paid on the trade-off between the two policy objectives will be in Asia, the world’s most populous continent.
Japan, the world’s third largest economy and one of its richest, is the first major signatory of the Paris Agreement to submit updated plans on cutting emissions in preparation for the now-postponed November 2020 Glasgow meeting. It was widely criticised by climate campaigners for failing to intensify emission targets as called for by the ‘spirit’ of the Paris Agreement. Many an Asian policymaker will see Japan’s refusal to submit tighter emissions reduction targets in view of the Covid-19 pandemic as pragmatic and necessary.
China, the world’s second largest economy and its biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, plans a fiscal stimulus worth hundreds of billions of dollars to restore economic growth. Given the country’s economic structure as the ‘workshop of the world’, this implies the resuscitation of carbon-intensive activity, ranging from coal to oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, plastics, and refineries — and reviving jobs for the multitudes who work in automobiles, aviation, shipping, utilities, construction, agriculture, manufacturing and utilities.
The post Covid-19 & Climate Change: Asia’s Policy Choices appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 2, 2020 at 02:21AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--UN Climate Summit In Glasgow Postponed For A Year

The UN summit on tackling climate change meant to be held in Britain this winter has been postponed because of @ @ @ @ @ world leaders – known as COP26 – was due to be the biggest the UK @ @ @ @ @ place over four days in November in Glasgow .
Around 30,000 delegates including politicians , @ @ @ @ @ planned to attend to agree new co-ordinated plans to tackle climate change .
The conference @ @ @ @ @ 2021 following a decision by the UN ’ s convention on climate change and the @ @ @ @ @ date named .
Plans for it had been put on the backburner for some weeks @ @ @ @ @ world diverted resources to fighting the coronavirus pandemic .
Preparatory meetings due to be held @ @ @ @ @ world were cancelled , in Columbia and Germany , due to international travel shutting down @ @ @ @ @ Summit In Glasgow Postponed For A Year appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum @ @ @ @

The UN summit on tackling climate change meant to be held in Britain this winter has been postponed because of coronavirus.
The gathering of world leaders – known as COP26 – was due to be the biggest the UK has ever hosted, taking place over four days in November in Glasgow.
Around 30,000 delegates including politicians, climate experts and campaigners had planned to attend to agree new co-ordinated plans to tackle climate change.
The conference has been pushed back to 2021 following a decision by the UN’s convention on climate change and the UK, but no specific date named.
Plans for it had been put on the backburner for some weeks, as governments around the world diverted resources to fighting the coronavirus pandemic.
Preparatory meetings due to be held by officials from across the world were cancelled, in Columbia and Germany, due to international travel shutting down.
The post UN Climate Summit In Glasgow Postponed For A Year appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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April 2, 2020 at 02:07AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--April snow for large parts of Manitoba

April snow for large parts of Manitoba

Winnipeg ’ s brown lawns are expected to turn white again Thursday .
A snowfall warning is in effect today @ @ @ @ @ as well as southeast Manitoba east of Brandon , central Manitoba and parts of northwestern @ @ @ @ @ 25 cm of snow is expected to fall on the Red River Valley , the @ @ @ @ @ the next couple of days , Environment Canada says .
Thanks to JonJon for this @ @ @ @ @ for large parts of Manitoba appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Highways closed. Thousands lose power.
Winnipeg’s brown lawns are expected to turn white again Thursday.
A snowfall warning is in effect today for the Winnipeg area, as well as southeast Manitoba east of Brandon, central Manitoba and parts of northwestern Manitoba.
Between 15 and 25 cm of snow is expected to fall on the Red River Valley, the Interlake and southeast Manitoba over the next couple of days, Environment Canada says.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/snowfall-warning-manitoba-thursday-1.5518690
Thanks to JonJon for this link
The post April snow for large parts of Manitoba appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 2, 2020 at 05:49PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Self-Isolating For The Climate

Self-Isolating For The Climate

Two women are self-isolating in Svalbard for the climate .
The have been there seven months and have seen “ @ @ @ @ @ climate .
Hearts in the Ice : Two women ‘ self-isolate ’ to teach about @ @ @ @ @ is almost completely surrounded by ice – the most ice they have had there for @ @ @ @ @ ago , a global warming research team got trapped in the ice there .
That @ @ @ @ @ time when the women showed up .
This is quite different from 98 years ago @ @ @ @ @ ice around Svalbard all winter .
The women say they have seen climate change , @ @ @ @ @ is cold , snow and lots of Polar Bears .
When there is money and @ @ @ @ @ is too big .

Two women are self-isolating in Svalbard for the climate. The have been there seven months and have seen “rapid changes” in the climate.
Hearts in the Ice: Two women ‘self-isolate’ to teach about climate change | kare11.com
Svalbard is almost completely surrounded by ice – the most ice they have had there for many years.
CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20200401.png (758×631)
Seven months ago, a global warming research team got trapped in the ice there. That would have been around the time when the women showed up.
Ship with Climate Change Warriors caught in ice, Warriors evacuated – Maritime Bulletin
This is quite different from 98 years ago, when there was no ice around Svalbard all winter.
Link
The women say they have seen climate change, when all they have seen is cold, snow and lots of Polar Bears. When there is money and publicity involved, no lie is too big.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Snowing in Vancouver, BC

Snowing in Vancouver, BC

Generally , come April , the region ’ s streets are shaded by arches of blooming cherry blossom trees rather @ @ @ @ @ snow really did fall in parts of Metro Vancouver on Thursday .
“ With temperatures @ @ @ @ @ or just slightly above , isolated pockets of precipitation are falling as snow , ” @ @ @ @ @ Soderholm .
“ Temperatures across the province are well below seasonal for this time of @ @ @ @ @ for this link The post Snowing in Vancouver , BC appeared first on Ice Age @ @

Generally, come April, the region’s streets are shaded by arches of blooming cherry blossom trees rather than thick snowflakes, but snow really did fall in parts of Metro Vancouver on Thursday.
“With temperatures at the freezing mark, or just slightly above, isolated pockets of precipitation are falling as snow,” said CBC Vancouver meteorologist Brett Soderholm.
“Temperatures across the province are well below seasonal for this time of year.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-snow-april-1.5519390
Thanks to JonJon for this link
The post Snowing in Vancouver, BC appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 2, 2020 at 05:35PM


Snowing in Portugal

31 Mar 2020 – It is also cold .
It is snowing in the center and north , with five @ @ @ @ @ The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere ( IPMA ) had already placed @ @ @ @ @ Castelo Branco – under yellow warning due to the probable snowfall but this morning more @ @ @ @ @ falling snow , cases of Viseu , Vila Real and Bragança .
Pictures and videos @ @ @ @ @ locations across the country are being posted on social media .
The polar air mass @ @ @ @ @ Europe , with snow falling in the middle of spring .
Thanks to Paulo for @ @ @ @ @ in Portugal appeared first on Ice Age Now .

31 Mar 2020 – It is also cold. It is snowing in the center and north, with five districts under yellow notice.
The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) had already placed two districts – Guarda and Castelo Branco – under yellow warning due to the probable snowfall but this morning more districts woke up with the falling snow, cases of Viseu, Vila Real and Bragança.
Pictures and videos of snow falling in many locations across the country are being posted on social media.
The polar air mass is affecting several countries in Europe, with snow falling in the middle of spring.
https://www.dn.pt/pais/esta-a-nevar-no-interior-centro-e-norte-ha-distritos-sob-aviso-amarelo-12009126.html
Thanks to Paulo for this link
The post Snowing in Portugal appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 2, 2020 at 05:35PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--San Francisco bans reusable bags in coronavirus fight

San Francisco is banning reusable shopping bags to prevent outside germs from entering grocery stores as the coronavirus pandemic affects @ @ @ @ @ The new ordinance from the San Francisco Department of Public Health aims to reinforce existing @ @ @ @ @ customers from bringing their own bags , mugs , or other reusable items to essential @ @ @ @ @ statement .
San Francisco was one of the first cities in the U.S. to ban @ @ @ @ @ bags in 2007 to reduce the environmental impact caused by plastic waste , according to @ @ @ @ @ London Breed ( D ) on Wednesday extended stay-at-home orders for the public , running @ @ @ @ @ I can ’ t reiterate enough how important it is for all of us to @ @ @ @ @ all of us to continue to be good citizens , to cooperate , ” Breed @ @

From The Hill
San Francisco is banning reusable shopping bags to prevent outside germs from entering grocery stores as the coronavirus pandemic affects cities around the country,
The new ordinance from the San Francisco Department of Public Health aims to reinforce existing social distancing protocols by restricting customers from bringing their own bags, mugs, or other reusable items to essential stores, according to a statement.
San Francisco was one of the first cities in the U.S. to ban the use of plastic shopping bags in 2007 to reduce the environmental impact caused by plastic waste, according to SFGate.com.
San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D) on Wednesday extended stay-at-home orders for the public, running until May 3.
“I can’t reiterate enough how important it is for all of us to continue to comply, for all of us to continue to be good citizens, to cooperate,” Breed said.
Today we officially extended the stay at home health order through May 3. I want to thank the people of San Francisco for continuing to do their part to save lives. I know this isn’t easy but we will get through it together. pic.twitter.com/4rggISBnQv — London Breed (@LondonBreed) March 31, 2020
Full article here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--New video by GWPF on YouTube

New video by GWPF on YouTube

Why Cows Are Not Responsible For Climate Change The full video from Professor Dr Peer Ederer ’ s talk to @ @ @ @ @ his view that cows are not responsible for recent warming associated with anthropogenic climate change @

Why Cows Are Not Responsible For Climate Change
The full video from Professor Dr Peer Ederer’s talk to the GWPF. He explains his view that cows are not responsible for recent warming associated with anthropogenic climate change.
View on YouTube


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Lockdowns, quarantines and isolation definitely do work

Ancient technology wins : Not only are quarantine and isolation measures useful , they ’ re the best tools we have .
Some people don ’ t seem to realize that the only reason the daily growth of infections is slowing anywhere , is thanks to drastic quarantine measures or changes in human behaviour .
We can see this in graphs from Italy , Spain , Norway , South Korea , Switzerland , Germany , and China , but not in Sweden or Brazil where there ’ s not much quarantine and not much slowing of growth curves either .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ big meaningful actions were followed around 12 days later by an obvious slow down .
Willis Eschenbach , for example , wondered If Lockdowns Worked , but counted bureaucratic subdivisions of any quarantine type action as a measure of the severity when it ’ s more a measure of the wordsmithiness or indecision of leaders .
To see if major action matters , it ’ s better to look at the dates that borders , schools and shops were closed .
The graphs of daily new cases below , show that around 12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the growth in cases usually slows too .
The delay is due to both the incubation period of Covid-19 and testing .
By the time a lockdown is [ … ]

Ancient technology wins: Not only are quarantine and isolation measures useful, they’re the best tools we have.
Some people don’t seem to realize that the only reason the daily growth of infections is slowing anywhere, is thanks to drastic quarantine measures or changes in human behaviour. We can see this in graphs from Italy, Spain, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, and China, but not in Sweden or Brazil where there’s not much quarantine and not much slowing of growth curves either. In all of the former, the big meaningful actions were followed around 12 days later by an obvious slow down.
Willis Eschenbach, for example, wondered If Lockdowns Worked, but counted bureaucratic subdivisions of any quarantine type action as a measure of the severity when it’s more a measure of the wordsmithiness or indecision of leaders.
To see if major action matters, it’s better to look at the dates that borders, schools and shops were closed. The graphs of daily new cases below, show that around 12 days later in so many countries, the growth in cases usually slows too. The delay is due to both the incubation period of Covid-19 and testing. By the time a lockdown is […]
Rating: 10.0/10 (2 votes cast)
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April 2, 2020 at 01:34PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-02--Puff Piece For Tesla Ignores The Real Truth

Elon Musk owned Tesla installed a battery farm in South Australia in 2017 and has since helped residents save $ 116 million in energy costs , Bloomberg reports .
The company installed the world ’ s biggest lithium-ion batter to help reduce the risk of blackouts as the country moved to renewable power generation .
Operating via the Hornsdale Power Reserve , it has helped to restore stability to the network and lower the costs of running the power grid , according to reports .
The decision to install the battery came after a Twitter ‘ bet ’ between Musk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promised he could build the battery ‘ in 100 days or its free ’ .
Two years on and the battery farm has slashed the costs required to regulate the South Australian grid by about 90 per cent , Bloomberg claims .
Operating via the Hornsdale Power Reserve , it has helped to restore stability to the network and lower the costs of running the power grid , according to reports The 129 megawatt system installed by Tesla offers a way to tackle the variable power generated by wind and solar generators – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is needed and distributes it through the grid during lower generation periods .
They smooth out the power flows that can threaten the stability of a network made up primarily of renewable sources of energy .
This is what was happening in Australia until the Tesla battery was installed – but since then it has helped respond to those issues quickly .
The battery has been designed to help cover temporary dips in wind power , say for 15 minutes , or help control frequency on the grid at times when natural gas-fired @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and power demand .
The state has yet to say how much it paid for the battery , which is part of a £293 million ( $ 390 million ) plan that includes diesel-fired generators to help keep the lights on following a string of blackouts over the past 18 months What this doubtlessly well coordinated puff for Tesla does not tell readers is that none of this extra cost of grid balancing would be necessary at all without the overloading of the SA grid with unreliable wind and solar power .
Whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ option than other forms of network balancing is beside the point .
SA has a population of 1.8m , so scaled up the £293m package would be the equivalent of about £11bn in the UK .
A huge bill by any account .
Perhaps instead of expecting SA residents to pay these costs , wind and solar farms themselves should be responsible for the cost .
The claim that the battery is “ powering 30,000 homes ” is ludicrous anyway .
The 100MW system can only supply 129 MWh , so if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could only be supplied for 77 minutes .
The purpose of Horndale is not to tackle the variable power generated by wind and solar generators , as claimed .
Only proper sources of dispatchable generation can do that .
Horndale ’ s role is simply to provide short term balancing , usually for a few seconds or so , whenever demand and supply are out of balance .
This gives time for generators to come on line .
There are many methods to do this , including those diesel generators mentioned , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The report by the specialist engineering advisory company Aurecon , which has triggered this Tesla love fest , is actually revealing in a number of ways .
Horndale ’ s ( HPR ) central function is to provide security to the SA grid via SIPS , which was et up to prevent the loss of the Heywood interconnector to Victoria : And as the Report itself explains , the increasing mix of renewables has increased the reliance on the interconnector : Closure of local generation in SA in conjunction with increased interconnection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on interconnection for reliability of supply Whereas previously there was ample thermal generation to provide not only dispatchable power but also importantly system inertia , the SA grid now has to rely on Heywood for that as well .
Consequently there is now a need for the expensive system security services provided by Tesla and others .
Despite the fact that about half of SA ’ s electricity comes from renewables , demand still has to be backed up in full by gas and diesel .
Even then , the SA network still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wind generation is high , and to import when it is low .
In short , SA ’ s high mix of renewables is only sustainable because the rest of the Australian electricity network is there to fall back on .
Which brings us back to Aurecon , who published this piece of puff and apparently funded it .
But is it truly independent , as they claim ?
Maybe not .
According to their website , battery systems are a useful source of income for them .
And certainly one they would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nice glowing report about Horndale ’ s Tesla batteries might help to bring in a bit more business .
Or am I just being an old cynic ?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
Elon Musk owned Tesla installed a battery farm in South Australia in 2017 and has since helped residents save $116 million in energy costs, Bloomberg reports.
The company installed the world’s biggest lithium-ion batter to help reduce the risk of blackouts as the country moved to renewable power generation.
Operating via the Hornsdale Power Reserve, it has helped to restore stability to the network and lower the costs of running the power grid, according to reports.
The decision to install the battery came after a Twitter ‘bet’ between Musk Australian software billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes where Musk promised he could build the battery ‘in 100 days or its free’.
Two years on and the battery farm has slashed the costs required to regulate the South Australian grid by about 90 per cent, Bloomberg claims.
Operating via the Hornsdale Power Reserve, it has helped to restore stability to the network and lower the costs of running the power grid, according to reports
The 129 megawatt system installed by Tesla offers a way to tackle the variable power generated by wind and solar generators – it stores up the energy until it is needed and distributes it through the grid during lower generation periods.
They smooth out the power flows that can threaten the stability of a network made up primarily of renewable sources of energy.
This is what was happening in Australia until the Tesla battery was installed – but since then it has helped respond to those issues quickly.
The battery has been designed to help cover temporary dips in wind power, say for 15 minutes, or help control frequency on the grid at times when natural gas-fired plants are unable to help balance generation and power demand.
The state has yet to say how much it paid for the battery, which is part of a £293 million ($390 million) plan that includes diesel-fired generators to help keep the lights on following a string of blackouts over the past 18 months
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8082841/Elon-Musks-Tesla-battery-farm-saved-South-Australia-116-MILLION.html
What this doubtlessly well coordinated puff for Tesla does not tell readers is that none of this extra cost of grid balancing would be necessary at all without the overloading of the SA grid with unreliable wind and solar power. Whether Tesla’s batteries are a cheaper option than other forms of network balancing is beside the point.
SA has a population of 1.8m, so scaled up the £293m package would be the equivalent of about £11bn in the UK. A huge bill by any account.
Perhaps instead of expecting SA residents to pay these costs, wind and solar farms themselves should be responsible for the cost.
The claim that the battery is “powering 30,000 homes” is ludicrous anyway. The 100MW system can only supply 129 MWh, so if the grid went down, those 30,000 homes could only be supplied for 77 minutes.
The purpose of Horndale is not to tackle the variable power generated by wind and solar generators, as claimed. Only proper sources of dispatchable generation can do that. Horndale’s role is simply to provide short term balancing, usually for a few seconds or so, whenever demand and supply are out of balance. This gives time for generators to come on line.
There are many methods to do this, including those diesel generators mentioned, so there is nothing radical about battery storage.
The report by the specialist engineering advisory company Aurecon, which has triggered this Tesla love fest, is actually revealing in a number of ways.
Horndale’s (HPR) central function is to provide security to the SA grid via SIPS, which was et up to prevent the loss of the Heywood interconnector to Victoria:
https://www.aurecongroup.com/markets/energy/hornsdale-power-reserve-impact-study
And as the Report itself explains, the increasing mix of renewables has increased the reliance on the interconnector:
Closure of local generation in SA in conjunction with increased interconnection
capacity has increased SA’s reliance on interconnection for reliability of supply
Whereas previously there was ample thermal generation to provide not only dispatchable power but also importantly system inertia, the SA grid now has to rely on Heywood for that as well.
Consequently there is now a need for the expensive system security services provided by Tesla and others.
Despite the fact that about half of SA’s electricity comes from renewables, demand still has to be backed up in full by gas and diesel.
Even then, the SA network still needs the interconnectors to export power when wind generation is high, and to import when it is low.
In short, SA’s high mix of renewables is only sustainable because the rest of the Australian electricity network is there to fall back on.
Which brings us back to Aurecon, who published this piece of puff and apparently funded it. But is it truly independent, as they claim? Maybe not.
According to their website, battery systems are a useful source of income for them. And certainly one they would no doubt like to grow.
A nice glowing report about Horndale’s Tesla batteries might help to bring in a bit more business.
Or am I just being an old cynic?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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April 2, 2020 at 01:03PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--NASA Outlines Lunar Surface Sustainability Concept

When NASA sends astronauts to the surface of the Moon in 2024 , it will be the first time outside of watching historical footage most people witness humans walking on another planetary body .
Building on these footsteps , future robotic and human explorers will put in place infrastructure for a long-term sustainable presence on the Moon .
NASA recently proposed a plan to go from limited , short-term Apollo-era exploration of the 1960s , to a 21st Century plan in a report to the National Space Council .
With the Artemis program , we will explore more of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars .
“ After 20 years of continuously living in low-Earth orbit , we ’ re now ready for the next great challenge of space exploration – the development of a sustained presence on and around the Moon , ” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine .
“ For years to come , Artemis will serve as our North Star as we continue to work toward even greater exploration of the Moon , where we will demonstrate key elements needed for the first human mission to Mars.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ elements for a sustained presence would include an emphasis on mobility to allow astronauts to explore more of the Moon and conduct more science : • A lunar terrain vehicle or LTV , would transport crew around the landing zone • The habitable mobility platform would enable crews to take trips across the Moon lasting up to 45 days • A lunar foundation surface habitat would house as many as four crew members on shorter surface stays Astronauts working on the lunar surface also could test advanced robotics , as well as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative , focusing on tech development in the areas such as of in-situ resource utilization ( ISRU ) and power systems .
Rovers will carry a variety of instruments including ISRU experiments that will generate information on the availability and extraction of usable resources ( e.g.
, oxygen and water ) .
Advancing these technologies could enable the production of fuel , water , and/or oxygen from local materials , enabling sustainable surface operations with decreasing supply needs from Earth .
Another key difference from Apollo and Artemis will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ orbit , built with commercial and international partners .
The lunar outpost will serve as a command and control module for surface expeditions and an office and home for astronauts away from Earth .
Operating autonomously when crew is not present , it also will be a platform for new science and technology demonstrations around the Moon .
Over time , NASA and its partners will enhance the lunar Gateway ’ s habitation capabilities and related life support systems .
Adding a large-volume deep space habitation element would allow astronauts to test capabilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missions .
While the goal of Apollo was to land the first humans on the Moon , the Artemis program will use the Moon as a testbed for crewed exploration farther into the solar system , beginning with Mars .
This is America ’ s Moon to Mars space exploration approach .
A proposed multi-month split-crew operation at the Gateway and on the lunar surface would test the agency ’ s concept for a human mission to the Red Planet .
For such a mission , NASA envisions a four-person crew traveling to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a multi-month stay to simulate the outbound trip to Mars .
Later , two crew members would travel to the lunar surface and explore with the habitable mobility platform , while the remaining two astronauts stay aboard Gateway .
The four crew members are later reunited aboard the lunar outpost for another multi-month stay , simulating the return trip to Earth .
This mission would be the longest duration human deep space mission in history and would be the first operational test of the readiness of our deep-space systems .
The report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surface beginning next year for scientific discovery .
The Moon is a natural laboratory to study planetary processes and evolution , and a platform from which to observe the universe .
NASA will send dozens of new science instruments and technology demonstrations to the Moon with its Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative .
Some of these robotic precursors , including the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover or VIPER , will study the terrain , and metal and ice resources at the lunar South Pole .
The Space Launch System rocket , Orion spacecraft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will round out the agency ’ s deep space systems .
As part of the Artemis III mission , the first human expedition back on the Moon will last approximately seven days .
NASA plans to send Artemis Generation astronauts on increasingly longer missions about once per year thereafter .
With strong support in NASA , America and its partners will test new technologies and reduce exploration costs over time .
Supporting infrastructure including power , radiation shielding , a landing pad , as well as waste disposal and storage could be built @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ The U.S. is still the only nation to have successfully landed humans on the Moon and spacecraft on the surface of Mars , ” the report states .
“ As other nations increasingly move out into space , American leadership is now called for to lead the next phase of humanity ’ s quest to open up the future to endless discovery and growth .
”

From NASA
April 2, 2020
When NASA sends astronauts to the surface of the Moon in 2024, it will be the first time outside of watching historical footage most people witness humans walking on another planetary body. Building on these footsteps, future robotic and human explorers will put in place infrastructure for a long-term sustainable presence on the Moon.
NASA recently proposed a plan to go from limited, short-term Apollo-era exploration of the 1960s, to a 21st Century plan in a report to the National Space Council. With the Artemis program, we will explore more of the Moon than ever before to make the next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars.
“After 20 years of continuously living in low-Earth orbit, we’re now ready for the next great challenge of space exploration – the development of a sustained presence on and around the Moon,” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. “For years to come, Artemis will serve as our North Star as we continue to work toward even greater exploration of the Moon, where we will demonstrate key elements needed for the first human mission to Mars.”
On the surface, the core elements for a sustained presence would include an emphasis on mobility to allow astronauts to explore more of the Moon and conduct more science:
A lunar terrain vehicle or LTV, would transport crew around the landing zone
The habitable mobility platform would enable crews to take trips across the Moon lasting up to 45 days
A lunar foundation surface habitat would house as many as four crew members on shorter surface stays
Astronauts working on the lunar surface also could test advanced robotics, as well as a wide set of new technologies identified in the Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative, focusing on tech development in the areas such as of in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and power systems. Rovers will carry a variety of instruments including ISRU experiments that will generate information on the availability and extraction of usable resources (e.g., oxygen and water). Advancing these technologies could enable the production of fuel, water, and/or oxygen from local materials, enabling sustainable surface operations with decreasing supply needs from Earth.
Another key difference from Apollo and Artemis will be use of the Gateway in lunar orbit, built with commercial and international partners. The lunar outpost will serve as a command and control module for surface expeditions and an office and home for astronauts away from Earth. Operating autonomously when crew is not present, it also will be a platform for new science and technology demonstrations around the Moon.
Over time, NASA and its partners will enhance the lunar Gateway’s habitation capabilities and related life support systems. Adding a large-volume deep space habitation element would allow astronauts to test capabilities around the Moon for long-duration deep space missions.
While the goal of Apollo was to land the first humans on the Moon, the Artemis program will use the Moon as a testbed for crewed exploration farther into the solar system, beginning with Mars. This is America’s Moon to Mars space exploration approach. A proposed multi-month split-crew operation at the Gateway and on the lunar surface would test the agency’s concept for a human mission to the Red Planet.
For such a mission, NASA envisions a four-person crew traveling to the Gateway and living aboard the outpost for a multi-month stay to simulate the outbound trip to Mars. Later, two crew members would travel to the lunar surface and explore with the habitable mobility platform, while the remaining two astronauts stay aboard Gateway. The four crew members are later reunited aboard the lunar outpost for another multi-month stay, simulating the return trip to Earth. This mission would be the longest duration human deep space mission in history and would be the first operational test of the readiness of our deep-space systems.
The report also highlights a robotic return to the surface beginning next year for scientific discovery. The Moon is a natural laboratory to study planetary processes and evolution, and a platform from which to observe the universe. NASA will send dozens of new science instruments and technology demonstrations to the Moon with its Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative. Some of these robotic precursors, including the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover or VIPER, will study the terrain, and metal and ice resources at the lunar South Pole.
The Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, human landing systems and modern spacesuits will round out the agency’s deep space systems. As part of the Artemis III mission, the first human expedition back on the Moon will last approximately seven days. NASA plans to send Artemis Generation astronauts on increasingly longer missions about once per year thereafter.
With strong support in NASA, America and its partners will test new technologies and reduce exploration costs over time. Supporting infrastructure including power, radiation shielding, a landing pad, as well as waste disposal and storage could be built up in the coming decades, too.
“The U.S. is still the only nation to have successfully landed humans on the Moon and spacecraft on the surface of Mars,” the report states. “As other nations increasingly move out into space, American leadership is now called for to lead the next phase of humanity’s quest to open up the future to endless discovery and growth.”
Read the full report:
NASA’s Plan for Sustained Lunar Exploration and Development
Last Updated: April 2, 2020
Editor: Cheryl Warner


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Carbon Credit Scam Exposed: Carbon Markets Fail As CO₂ Declines

From the team at CFACT ~ Environmentalists and green bureaucrats have watched in shock as the coronavirus global shut down @ @ @ @ @ markets to crash .
The European Union ’ s carbon credits price has fallen by @ @ @ @ @ far .
This market was worth $ 215 billion last year , according to Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ has rubbed out two years of EU carbon market gains .
It turns out that @ @ @ @ @ levels of carbon dioxide emissions , as is the case currently with businesses and industries @ @ @ @ @ the carbon emitting don ’ t have to buy any carbon credits to make up @ @ @ @ @ no one is buying carbon credits to offset emissions , well , then the so-called @ @ @ @ @ dies .
Wait a minute , isn ’ t the whole idea of these carbon @ @ @ @ @ ; what climate campaigners refer to as…

PA Pundits – International
From the team at CFACT ~
Environmentalists and green bureaucrats have watched in shock as the coronavirus global shut down has now caused carbon credit markets to crash.
The European Union’s carbon credits price has fallen by 40% this year so far. This market was worth $215 billion last year, according to Bloomberg Environment. The price drop has rubbed out two years of EU carbon market gains.
It turns out that if there are extremely low levels of carbon dioxide emissions, as is the case currently with businesses and industries shuttered, the companies doing the carbon emitting don’t have to buy any carbon credits to make up for it.
And if no one is buying carbon credits to offset emissions, well, then the so-called “market” for carbon dies.
Wait a minute, isn’t the whole idea of these carbon credits to reduce CO₂ emissions; what climate campaigners refer to as…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--China extracts record amount of natural gas from ‘fire ice’ in South China Sea

The main obstacle to the massive but untapped energy resource of gas hydrate is cost of extraction , once technical problems are mastered .
We might be sitting on enough gas to power the world for hundreds , if not thousands , of years , says OilPrice.com .
In a world awash in oil and gas , you ’ d think it couldn ’ t get any worse .
Well , it can : China just announced that it had extracted a record amount of what has been poetically called fire ice .
It is , however , a form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
At 861,400 cubic meters , this record might not be a whole lot of gas , but it may well be the start of something new , and gas producers may not like this ‘ something ’ .
Gas hydrates don ’ t garner a lot of media attention as a rule , simply because they have yet to become an addition to the world ’ s energy mix .
But when they do—if they do—they may change the international oil and gas market even more than the coronavirus outbreak has changed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
First , what are gas hydrates ?
Gas hydrates are molecules of natural gas , most commonly methane , trapped in a “ cage ” made from water molecules .
They exist in cold climates , such as beneath the Arctic permafrost and Antarctic ice , but also in sedimentary deposits–the same kind of deposits where oil and gas collect along the margins of continents and also under the seabed of specific basins such as the South China Sea .
Because they only exist in cold places , research on gas hydrates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ M. King explains in an article on hydrates for Geology.com , hydrates are only stable in the environment where they formed .
To study them , researchers need to remove the samples from their environment .
The change in temperature in pressure , however , melts the water cage , and the methane escapes .
Why bother with hydrates at all , then ?
Because they may be more abundant than all other hydrocarbons taken together : oil , gas , and coal .
According to the U.S. Department of Energy , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be as vast as 250,000 to 700,000 trillion cu ft .
According to the UN Environmental Programme , the world ’ s reserves of gas hydrates could be as large as 3,000 to 30,000 trillion cubic meters .
But these are just enormous figures that are difficult to digest .
Here ’ s an estimate that might be more palatable : the world ’ s gas hydrate reserves could be between 100,000 and 1.1 million exajoules .
For context , the world ’ s total annual energy consumption as of 2014 when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exajoules .
This means we might be sitting on enough gas to power the world for hundreds , if not thousands , of years .
It ’ s packed tightly , too .
According to the Department of Energy , a single cu m of hydrate can release as much as 164 cubic meters of natural gas .
Talk about energy density .

H/T The GWPF
The main obstacle to the massive but untapped energy resource of gas hydrate is cost of extraction, once technical problems are mastered.
We might be sitting on enough gas to power the world for hundreds, if not thousands, of years, says OilPrice.com.
In a world awash in oil and gas, you’d think it couldn’t get any worse. Well, it can: China just announced that it had extracted a record amount of what has been poetically called fire ice. It is, however, a form of natural gas trapped in frozen water.
At 861,400 cubic meters, this record might not be a whole lot of gas, but it may well be the start of something new, and gas producers may not like this ‘something’.
Gas hydrates don’t garner a lot of media attention as a rule, simply because they have yet to become an addition to the world’s energy mix. But when they do—if they do—they may change the international oil and gas market even more than the coronavirus outbreak has changed it now by decimating demand for hydrocarbons.
First, what are gas hydrates?
Gas hydrates are molecules of natural gas, most commonly methane, trapped in a “cage” made from water molecules. They exist in cold climates, such as beneath the Arctic permafrost and Antarctic ice, but also in sedimentary deposits–the same kind of deposits where oil and gas collect along the margins of continents and also under the seabed of specific basins such as the South China Sea.
Because they only exist in cold places, research on gas hydrates has been challenging. As geologist Hobart M. King explains in an article on hydrates for Geology.com, hydrates are only stable in the environment where they formed.
To study them, researchers need to remove the samples from their environment. The change in temperature in pressure, however, melts the water cage, and the methane escapes.
Why bother with hydrates at all, then? Because they may be more abundant than all other hydrocarbons taken together: oil, gas, and coal.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the world’s methane gas hydrates could be as vast as 250,000 to 700,000 trillion cu ft. According to the UN Environmental Programme, the world’s reserves of gas hydrates could be as large as 3,000 to 30,000 trillion cubic meters. But these are just enormous figures that are difficult to digest.
Here’s an estimate that might be more palatable: the world’s gas hydrate reserves could be between 100,000 and 1.1 million exajoules. For context, the world’s total annual energy consumption as of 2014 when the UNEP paper was written was about 500 exajoules.
This means we might be sitting on enough gas to power the world for hundreds, if not thousands, of years.
It’s packed tightly, too. According to the Department of Energy, a single cu m of hydrate can release as much as 164 cubic meters of natural gas. Talk about energy density.
Full article here.
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April 3, 2020 at 04:03AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Wear masks, flush the air, microdroplets suspend for hours

Closed rooms with many people talking are hot-beds of infection .
Invisible clouds of virus hang suspended in the air .
Open the windows .
Turn up the airflow .
Wear masks .
( Wear goggles too , if you are high risk , the virus can get in through the wet surface of your eyes ) .
Blow that virus outdoors where the sun will fry it .
We need to change the way we handle air in planes and on cruise ships , and public transport — even when there is no pandemic .
This is why I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a mask .
Mail order and delivery is so much safer .
Do carpark pick ups .
It ’ s also why eating uncooked fruit and vege that people may have breathed on is still a risk .
The virus will likely survive 28 days in the fridge at 4 degrees C and even longer in the freezer .
At 40 degrees it will last about 6 hours .
Time will not protect you unless things are warm .
When I did research in a lab , if we wanted to save viruses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freezer ( minus 70C ) .
A virus is more like a chemical than a living thing .

Closed rooms with many people talking are hot-beds of infection. Invisible clouds of virus hang suspended in the air. Open the windows. Turn up the airflow. Wear masks. (Wear goggles too, if you are high risk, the virus can get in through the wet surface of your eyes).
Blow that virus outdoors where the sun will fry it. We need to change the way we handle air in planes and on cruise ships, and public transport — even when there is no pandemic.
This is why I am not shopping without PPE. Make a mask. Mail order and delivery is so much safer. Do carpark pick ups. It’s also why eating uncooked fruit and vege that people may have breathed on is still a risk. The virus will likely survive 28 days in the fridge at 4 degrees C and even longer in the freezer. At 40 degrees it will last about 6 hours. Time will not protect you unless things are warm.
When I did research in a lab, if we wanted to save viruses we’d put them in a freezer (minus 70C). A virus is more like a chemical than a living thing.
Thanks to MichaelSmithNews.
Heat […]
Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)
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April 3, 2020 at 02:03AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--Want To Wreck A Power Grid? Add Chaotically Intermittent Wind & Solar Power

Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse battled over whether America would run on DC or AC power , but they never @ @ @ @ @ chaotic intermittency of wind and solar .
Celebrated in the recently released film , The @ @ @ @ @ Edison fought a pitched battle over technology , patents , media approval and the support @ @ @ @

Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse battled over whether America would run on DC or AC power, but they never had to battle with the chaotic intermittency of wind and solar. Celebrated in the recently released film, The Current War, Westinghouse and Edison fought a pitched battle over technology, patents, media approval and the support of […]
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April 3, 2020 at 01:30AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-03--CORONAVIRUS LESSONS FROM THE ASTEROID THAT DIDN’T HIT EARTH

Benny Peiser & Andrew Montford : The Wall Street Journal 2 April 2020 Scary projections based on faulty data can put policy makers under pressure to adopt draconian measures .
London : The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically demonstrated the limits of scientific modeling to predict the future .
The most consequential coronavirus model , produced by a team at Imperial College London , tipped the British government , which had until then pursued a cautious strategy , into precipitate action , culminating in the lockdown under which we are all currently laboring .
With the Imperial team talking in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.K. and social media aflame with demands for something to be done , Prime Minister Boris Johnson had no other option .
But last week , a team from Oxford University put forward an alternative model of how the pandemic might play out , suggesting a much less frightening future and a speedy end to the current nightmare .
How should the government know who is right ?
It is quite possible that both teams are wrong .
Academic studies often suffer from a lack of quality control , as peer review is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ times this doesn ’ t matter much , but it ’ s different when studies find their way into the policy world .
In the current emergency , it is vital to check that the epidemiological models have been correctly assembled and that there are no inadvertent mistakes .
Several researchers have apparently asked to see Imperial ’ s calculations , but Prof. Neil Ferguson , the man leading the team , has said that the computer code is 13 years old and thousands of lines of it “ undocumented , ” making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , let alone take it apart to identify potential errors .
He has promised that it will be published in a week or so , but in the meantime reasonable people might wonder whether something made with 13-year-old , undocumented computer code should be used to justify shutting down the economy .
Meanwhile , the authors of the Oxford model have promised that their code will be published “ as soon as possible.
” It isn ’ t only the U.K. that ’ s plagued by inscrutable models that describe very different futures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments around the world now face .
Is there anything that can be done to make the predictions put in front of policy makers more reliable ?
Peer review can ’ t bear reform , because there are simply too few people around with the expertise and time to do comprehensive reviews .
It would be much simpler to require publicly funded academics to publish data and code as a matter of course ; the possibility of competing teams checking their work might encourage development of the quality-control culture that seems lacking within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that in a crisis , when traditional academic peer review would move too slowly to be useful , a crowdsourced review process could take place .
In this way , the combined intellects of experts among the general public could be brought to bear on the problem , rapidly identifying errors and challenging assumptions .
This sort of crowdsourced review would provide the manpower to take apart the abstruse models that are all too common in many academic fields .
The authors of the Imperial model have argued that they don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get their 13-year-old computer code running .
But getting computer code running is usually a problem that can be solved in a day or two when you throw enough brain power at it .
Calculations aren ’ t the only problem .
Only a few weeks into the pandemic , we don ’ t have enough data to feed into the models .
In particular , information about how many people are infected but remain asymptomatic is highly tentative .
This means that there are a huge number of mathematical models that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , each extrapolating a very different future .
New data can change predictions considerably .
Take an example from astronomy .
On March 12 , 1998 , media around the world announced that a mile-wide asteroid was on a possible collision course with Earth in 2028 .
Only a day later , the global asteroid scare was over as additional observational data showed it would miss by 600,000 miles .
While the initial calculations weren ’ t inaccurate , they were based on limited data and weren ’ t properly scrutinized , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delay while new information was collated was all it took to show that there was no risk at all .
After this scare , the international astronomical community agreed on a robust warning system based on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale , a tool for categorizing and communicating potential asteroid impact risks .
Out of a scientific fiasco , a successful risk-communication tool was developed .
It has since prevented many false alarms and taught the public to understand and live with the comparatively small risk of asteroid impacts .
Covid-19 is no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefit from a similar warning system , which would help governments and health officials communicate uncertainties and risks to the public .
When competing models are giving wildly different , and in some cases frightening , predictions , the pressure on governments to adopt a draconian approach can be overwhelming .
But , as we are seeing , the costs of such measures are extraordinarily high .
Nations can not afford to lock down their economies every time a potentially devastating new virus emerges .
Setting up an effective pandemic hazard scale would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helping fend off media demands for “ something to be done ” until the right decisions can be made at the right time .
Messrs. Peiser and Montford are , respectively , director and deputy director of the Global Warming Policy Forum .

Benny Peiser & Andrew Montford: The Wall Street Journal 2 April 2020
Scary projections based on faulty data can put policy makers under pressure to adopt draconian measures.
London: The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically demonstrated the limits of scientific modeling to predict the future. The most consequential coronavirus model, produced by a team at Imperial College London, tipped the British government, which had until then pursued a cautious strategy, into precipitate action, culminating in the lockdown under which we are all currently laboring.
With the Imperial team talking in terms of 250,000 to 510,000 deaths in the U.K. and social media aflame with demands for something to be done, Prime Minister Boris Johnson had no other option.
But last week, a team from Oxford University put forward an alternative model of how the pandemic might play out, suggesting a much less frightening future and a speedy end to the current nightmare.
How should the government know who is right? It is quite possible that both teams are wrong. Academic studies often suffer from a lack of quality control, as peer review is usually brief and cursory. In normal times this doesn’t matter much, but it’s different when studies find their way into the policy world. In the current emergency, it is vital to check that the epidemiological models have been correctly assembled and that there are no inadvertent mistakes.
Several researchers have apparently asked to see Imperial’s calculations, but Prof. Neil Ferguson, the man leading the team, has said that the computer code is 13 years old and thousands of lines of it “undocumented,” making it hard for anyone to work with, let alone take it apart to identify potential errors. He has promised that it will be published in a week or so, but in the meantime reasonable people might wonder whether something made with 13-year-old, undocumented computer code should be used to justify shutting down the economy. Meanwhile, the authors of the Oxford model have promised that their code will be published “as soon as possible.”
It isn’t only the U.K. that’s plagued by inscrutable models that describe very different futures. It’s a problem that governments around the world now face. Is there anything that can be done to make the predictions put in front of policy makers more reliable?
Peer review can’t bear reform, because there are simply too few people around with the expertise and time to do comprehensive reviews. It would be much simpler to require publicly funded academics to publish data and code as a matter of course; the possibility of competing teams checking their work might encourage development of the quality-control culture that seems lacking within the academy. It would also mean that in a crisis, when traditional academic peer review would move too slowly to be useful, a crowdsourced review process could take place.
In this way, the combined intellects of experts among the general public could be brought to bear on the problem, rapidly identifying errors and challenging assumptions. This sort of crowdsourced review would provide the manpower to take apart the abstruse models that are all too common in many academic fields. The authors of the Imperial model have argued that they don’t have time to explain to people how to get their 13-year-old computer code running. But getting computer code running is usually a problem that can be solved in a day or two when you throw enough brain power at it.
Calculations aren’t the only problem. Only a few weeks into the pandemic, we don’t have enough data to feed into the models. In particular, information about how many people are infected but remain asymptomatic is highly tentative. This means that there are a huge number of mathematical models that might explain what has happened so far, each extrapolating a very different future. New data can change predictions considerably.
Take an example from astronomy. On March 12, 1998, media around the world announced that a mile-wide asteroid was on a possible collision course with Earth in 2028. Only a day later, the global asteroid scare was over as additional observational data showed it would miss by 600,000 miles. While the initial calculations weren’t inaccurate, they were based on limited data and weren’t properly scrutinized, which made the announcement premature. A short delay while new information was collated was all it took to show that there was no risk at all.
After this scare, the international astronomical community agreed on a robust warning system based on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool for categorizing and communicating potential asteroid impact risks. Out of a scientific fiasco, a successful risk-communication tool was developed. It has since prevented many false alarms and taught the public to understand and live with the comparatively small risk of asteroid impacts. Covid-19 is no false alarm, but public health could benefit from a similar warning system, which would help governments and health officials communicate uncertainties and risks to the public.
When competing models are giving wildly different, and in some cases frightening, predictions, the pressure on governments to adopt a draconian approach can be overwhelming. But, as we are seeing, the costs of such measures are extraordinarily high. Nations cannot afford to lock down their economies every time a potentially devastating new virus emerges. Setting up an effective pandemic hazard scale would inform policy makers and the public, helping fend off media demands for “something to be done” until the right decisions can be made at the right time.
Messrs. Peiser and Montford are, respectively, director and deputy director of the Global Warming Policy Forum.