iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Climate change may push some species to higher elevations — and out of harm’s way

Upslope movements may push species away from human pressure , which could reduce extinction risk for many mountain-dwelling species New York , NY ( April 24 , 2020 ) – A new WCS-led study reveals that mountain-dwelling species fleeing warming temperatures by retreating to higher elevations may find refuge from reduced human pressure .
A new study published in Nature Communications by scientists at WCS , the University of California , Berkeley , and the United States Forest Service shows that nearly 60 percent of all mountainous area is under intense human pressure .
Most of the pressure is at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tend to be easier places for people to live , grow food , and build roads .
The scientists then used climate models to make predictions about how species would move under climate change .
Based on their predictions , they found that species tend to move to higher elevations , and that these higher elevations tend to have more intact land for species because there is less human pressure .
Without factoring in human pressure , the authors warn that conservation actions may be misguided .
Factoring in human pressure reveals the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for species that are restricted to intact landscapes , which are often the species of greatest conservation concern .
Here , the ‘ true shape ’ refers to how much land area is potentially available as habitat for a species as it moves up in elevation , not simply how much total land area is available .
The true shape can reveal where species will tend to lose versus gain intact land area as they shift under climate change : the elevations where species are expected to lose area represent the priority zones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 85 percent of the world ’ s amphibians , birds , and mammals , making them global conservation priorities .
But mountain-dwelling species are at risk from human activities , such as agriculture , livestock grazing , and development that reduce their habitat , and climate change that threatens to push species upslope as they struggle to find tolerable temperatures .
“ Species are adapted to certain temperature conditions .
As temperatures warm in mountains , scientists have documented species moving to higher elevations to maintain the same temperatures , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scientist and lead author of the study .
“ This was always seen as a problem , because species would have less land area and less habitat to occupy at high elevations .
But what we found is that as species move upslope , they tend to move away from areas that are already under intense human pressure and into areas with reduced human pressure .
As a result , they can occupy more intact land area , even if the total amount of land area declines.
” The authors combined several global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ digital elevation models gave a picture about how much surface area is available at different elevations .
The Human Footprint Index provided information on pressure from human activities .
Global climate models projected how temperatures are likely to change by the late 21st century .
The authors then used computer simulations to place hundreds of thousands of hypothetical ‘ species ’ across all mountain ranges at different elevations and then predicted how they would shift their ranges based on climate projections .
For each simulation , they compared the amount of area the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amount they would have after the range shift under climate change .
Said Elsen : “ We were surprised to find that many species had more intact land area available after the range shift compared to when they started.
” The results suggest that many species in mountain ranges may have more intact land area available in the future if they track warming temperatures to higher slopes , though there were exceptions .
“ Our results offer a glimmer of hope for montane species under climate change , ” Elsen said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressure , especially at low elevations , but we have the opportunity now to protect intact habitats at higher elevations to give these species the best possible chance going forward.
” The study , titled “ Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change , ” was supported by the David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellowship , funded by the Cedar Tree Foundation .
The authors include Paul Elsen ( Wildlife Conservation Society ) , William Monahan ( US Forest Service ) , and Adina Merenlender ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saves wildlife and wild places worldwide through science , conservation action , education , and inspiring people to value nature .
To achieve our mission , WCS , based at the Bronx Zoo , harnesses the power of its Global Conservation Program in nearly 60 nations and in all the world ’ s oceans and its five wildlife parks in New York City , visited by 4 million people annually .
WCS combines its expertise in the field , zoos , and aquarium to achieve its conservation mission .
Visit : newsroom.wcs.org Follow @ @ @ @

Upslope movements may push species away from human pressure, which could reduce extinction risk for many mountain-dwelling species
Wildlife Conservation Society
Human pressure from agriculture, livestock grazing, and development is often more intense at mountain bases, as in this Himalayan landscape in north India. Species shifting upslope tracking rising temperatures may find more intact habitats.
(Photo credit: Paul R. Elsen WCS).
New York, NY (April 24, 2020) – A new WCS-led study reveals that mountain-dwelling species fleeing warming temperatures by retreating to higher elevations may find refuge from reduced human pressure.
A new study published in Nature Communications by scientists at WCS, the University of California, Berkeley, and the United States Forest Service shows that nearly 60 percent of all mountainous area is under intense human pressure. Most of the pressure is at low elevations and mountain bases, which tend to be easier places for people to live, grow food, and build roads. The scientists then used climate models to make predictions about how species would move under climate change. Based on their predictions, they found that species tend to move to higher elevations, and that these higher elevations tend to have more intact land for species because there is less human pressure.
Without factoring in human pressure, the authors warn that conservation actions may be misguided. Factoring in human pressure reveals the true ‘shape’ of a mountain for species that are restricted to intact landscapes, which are often the species of greatest conservation concern. Here, the ‘true shape’ refers to how much land area is potentially available as habitat for a species as it moves up in elevation, not simply how much total land area is available. The true shape can reveal where species will tend to lose versus gain intact land area as they shift under climate change: the elevations where species are expected to lose area represent the priority zones for conservation.
Mountains are home to over 85 percent of the world’s amphibians, birds, and mammals, making them global conservation priorities. But mountain-dwelling species are at risk from human activities, such as agriculture, livestock grazing, and development that reduce their habitat, and climate change that threatens to push species upslope as they struggle to find tolerable temperatures.
“Species are adapted to certain temperature conditions. As temperatures warm in mountains, scientists have documented species moving to higher elevations to maintain the same temperatures,” said Paul Elsen, a WCS Climate Adaptation Scientist and lead author of the study. “This was always seen as a problem, because species would have less land area and less habitat to occupy at high elevations. But what we found is that as species move upslope, they tend to move away from areas that are already under intense human pressure and into areas with reduced human pressure. As a result, they can occupy more intact land area, even if the total amount of land area declines.”
The authors combined several global databases to make their assessments: high-resolution digital elevation models gave a picture about how much surface area is available at different elevations. The Human Footprint Index provided information on pressure from human activities. Global climate models projected how temperatures are likely to change by the late 21st century.
The authors then used computer simulations to place hundreds of thousands of hypothetical ‘species’ across all mountain ranges at different elevations and then predicted how they would shift their ranges based on climate projections. For each simulation, they compared the amount of area the species had to begin with to the amount they would have after the range shift under climate change.
Said Elsen: “We were surprised to find that many species had more intact land area available after the range shift compared to when they started.”
The results suggest that many species in mountain ranges may have more intact land area available in the future if they track warming temperatures to higher slopes, though there were exceptions.
“Our results offer a glimmer of hope for montane species under climate change,” Elsen said. “Montane species are still facing tremendous human pressure, especially at low elevations, but we have the opportunity now to protect intact habitats at higher elevations to give these species the best possible chance going forward.”
###
The study, titled “Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change,” was supported by the David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellowship, funded by the Cedar Tree Foundation. The authors include Paul Elsen (Wildlife Conservation Society), William Monahan (US Forest Service), and Adina Merenlender (UC Berkeley).
WCS (Wildlife Conservation Society)
MISSION: WCS saves wildlife and wild places worldwide through science, conservation action, education, and inspiring people to value nature. To achieve our mission, WCS, based at the Bronx Zoo, harnesses the power of its Global Conservation Program in nearly 60 nations and in all the world’s oceans and its five wildlife parks in New York City, visited by 4 million people annually. WCS combines its expertise in the field, zoos, and aquarium to achieve its conservation mission. Visit: newsroom.wcs.org Follow: @WCSNewsroom.
From EurekAlert!


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--All Grown Up Now!

All Grown Up Now!

My most recent video was a bike ride , which ended at Mork and Mindy ’ s house in Boulder @ @ @ @ @ in front of the house .
The tree wasn ’ t there when the Mork @ @ @ @ @ in 1978 .
I spent a week in Boulder during the summer of 1978 .
@ @ @ @ @ the Catacombs bar located in the basement of the Boulderado Hotel .
That was back @ @ @ @ @ had restaurants , stores and bars , and people were permitted to enjoy themselves .

My most recent video was a bike ride, which ended at Mork and Mindy’s house in Boulder. Note the large tree in front of the house.
The tree wasn’t there when the Mork and Mindy intro was filmed in 1978.
I spent a week in Boulder during the summer of 1978. We danced for hours in the Catacombs bar located in the basement of the Boulderado Hotel. That was back in the days when Boulder had restaurants, stores and bars, and people were permitted to enjoy themselves.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Hurry, See “Planet of the Humans,” Before It’s Banned

Green lobbyists and climate activists are up to their old tricks Planet of the Humans , the new documentary film from director Jeff Gibbs and executive producer Michael Moore , contains a stunning evisceration of so-called green energy and the people profiting from it .
It was released on April 21 for free viewing on YouTube and as of the afternoon of Friday , April 24 , had been viewed over 1.5 million times .
However , Marc Morano reported on Climate Depot that a pressure campaign has succeeded in getting the distributor to pull the film .
Josh Fox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-hydraulic fracturing documentary , Gasland , launched the campaign on Twitter and tweeted Friday afternoon that the distributors had agreed to withdraw Planet of the Humans .
Fox also tweeted that he didn ’ t blame the distributors because they hadn ’ t seen the film before releasing it .
Gibbs and Moore approach green energy from the perspective of the ultra-far left .
They believe that everything wrong and evil in the world is caused by “ cancerous ” capitalism and the billionaire plutocrats who control the global economy .
In addition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influenced by Deep Ecology , the anti-human ideology that preaches that drastic population control and near-total deindustrialization are necessary to save the planet .
Much of the analysis is taken from a 2012 book , Green Illusions : The Dirty Secrets of Clean Energy and the Future of Environmentalism by Ozzie Zehner , who was a co-producer of the film and gives a key interview in it .
A better title for the film would be , The Luddite Left Eats the Climate Industrial Complex .
Every type of green energy is exposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dependent on fossil fuel production and large-scale hardrock mining .
The targets include wind power , solar power , ethanol , biomass , battery storage , electric vehicles , and seaweed .
After revealing the manifold shortcomings in each type of renewable energy , Gibbs , who narrates the film , remarks , “ It was enough to make my head explode .
I was getting the uneasy feeling that green energy was not going to save us.
” The film also goes after the leading green energy promoters and profiteers .
Bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but Al Gore , Michael Brune and the Sierra Club , Michael Bloomberg , Goldman Sachs , Elon Musk and Tesla , Arnold Scwarzenegger , the Nature Conservancy , Vinod Khosla , the Union of Concerned Scientists , Van Jones , Richard Blood , and Jeremy Grantham are also featured .
And—of course—the Kochs .
The post Hurry , See “ Planet of the Humans , ” Before It ’ s Banned appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Green lobbyists and climate activists are up to their old tricks
Click on the image to watch
Planet of the Humans, the new documentary film from director Jeff Gibbs and executive producer Michael Moore, contains a stunning evisceration of so-called green energy and the people profiting from it. It was released on April 21 for free viewing on YouTube and as of the afternoon of Friday, April 24, had been viewed over 1.5 million times.
However, Marc Morano reported on Climate Depot that a pressure campaign has succeeded in getting the distributor to pull the film. Josh Fox, who directed 2010’s semi-factual anti-hydraulic fracturing documentary, Gasland, launched the campaign on Twitter and tweeted Friday afternoon that the distributors had agreed to withdraw Planet of the Humans. Fox also tweeted that he didn’t blame the distributors because they hadn’t seen the film before releasing it.
Gibbs and Moore approach green energy from the perspective of the ultra-far left. They believe that everything wrong and evil in the world is caused by “cancerous” capitalism and the billionaire plutocrats who control the global economy. In addition to anti-capitalism, Gibbs has been strongly influenced by Deep Ecology, the anti-human ideology that preaches that drastic population control and near-total deindustrialization are necessary to save the planet.
Much of the analysis is taken from a 2012 book, Green Illusions: The Dirty Secrets of Clean Energy and the Future of Environmentalism by Ozzie Zehner, who was a co-producer of the film and gives a key interview in it.
A better title for the film would be, The Luddite Left Eats the Climate Industrial Complex. Every type of green energy is exposed as phony, useless, and inextricably dependent on fossil fuel production and large-scale hardrock mining. The targets include wind power, solar power, ethanol, biomass, battery storage, electric vehicles, and seaweed. After revealing the manifold shortcomings in each type of renewable energy, Gibbs, who narrates the film, remarks, “It was enough to make my head explode. I was getting the uneasy feeling that green energy was not going to save us.”
The film also goes after the leading green energy promoters and profiteers. Bill McKibben of 350.org is the leading target, but Al Gore, Michael Brune and the Sierra Club, Michael Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk and Tesla, Arnold Scwarzenegger, the Nature Conservancy, Vinod Khosla, the Union of Concerned Scientists, Van Jones, Richard Blood, and Jeremy Grantham are also featured. And—of course—the Kochs.
The post Hurry, See “Planet of the Humans,” Before It’s Banned appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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April 25, 2020 at 02:54AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Blood & Gore: Mike Moore’s ‘Planet of The Humans’ Unmasks The Power & Money Behind Renewables Scam

Apoplexy is the order of the day among ‘ green ’ energy zealots following the release of Mike Moore ’ @ @ @ @ @ Humans ’ .
In the military they call it “ blue on blue ” , @ @ @ @ @ are pulling the trigger it ’ s more aptly described as “ green on green @ @ @ @ @ backed by Moore isn ’ t so much ‘ friendly fire ’ , as an @ @ @ @ @ hypocrites who whipped up fear and frenzy over changes in the weather and then , @ @ @ @ @ produced the notional ‘ solution ’ to the [ … ]

Apoplexy is the order of the day among ‘green’ energy zealots following the release of Mike Moore’s ‘Planet of The Humans’. In the military they call it “blue on blue”, although when the hard left are pulling the trigger it’s more aptly described as “green on green”. But the documentary backed by Moore isn’t so much ‘friendly fire’, as an all-out assault on the billionaire hypocrites who whipped up fear and frenzy over changes in the weather and then, as if by magic, produced the notional ‘solution’ to the […]
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April 25, 2020 at 02:36AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--PLANET OF THE HUMANS, A MICHAEL MOORE DOCUMENTARY

Having said that , I do not agree with his belief that extra CO2 in the atmosphere is definitely a @ @ @ @ @ he is saying is that the very costly ‘ solutions ’ are not solutions at @ @ @ @ @ I believe he is correct .
What effect will this film have ?
I don @ @ @ @ @ channel to air it , as they don ’ t touch anything controversial on climate @ @ @ @ @ it is not likely to reach the mass audience .
Do our political leaders really @ @ @ @ @ are wrong ?
I very much doubt it .
They have bought into these false @ @ @ @ @ public have been brainwashed by all the propaganda pumped out on TV .

Here is a link to the film (1hour and 40minutes) referred to in yesterday’s post. What makes this film so special is that it was made by someone who is passionate about ‘saving the planet’. As he says in the film, he was a cheerleader for the people who he now denounces. He supported renewable energy and believed it was the solution. I admire someone who has the courage to change his mind and do so publicly.
Having said that, I do not agree with his belief that extra CO2 in the atmosphere is definitely a serious concern, but what he is saying is that the very costly ‘solutions’ are not solutions at all, and in that I believe he is correct. What effect will this film have? I don’t expect any TV channel to air it, as they don’t touch anything controversial on climate these days and without that it is not likely to reach the mass audience.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Green Mafia At Work

Green Mafia At Work

Michael Moore exposed the corruption in a multi-trillion dollar industry , so the green mafia has extended their corruption by @ @ @ @ @ It isn ’ t difficult to imagine the outrage which would occur if Michael Moore @ @ @ @ @ companies , and the oil companies had it censored .
But because the corruption dresses @ @ @ @ @ , the perps think they can get away with it .

Michael Moore exposed the corruption in a multi-trillion dollar industry, so the green mafia has extended their corruption by taking the video down.
It isn’t difficult to imagine the outrage which would occur if Michael Moore did an expose of oil companies, and the oil companies had it censored. But because the corruption dresses up in a green jacket, the perps think they can get away with it.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Some People Say there is no “Tar Sands Campaign’

Click to email this to a friend ( Opens in new window )

Here is a sworn affidavit about it. … Continue reading
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April 25, 2020 at 07:14PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Low Electricity Demand and System Balancing Problems during The UK’s Coronavirus Lockdown

The restrictions on economic and personal activity imposed to address the spread of the coronavirus are reducing electricity demand in the UK to unusually low levels , increasing the difficulties of operating the system , particularly in the presence of embedded solar and wind generation .
As a result of the restrictions on economic activity and personal movement , designed to reduce the rate of transmission of Covid-19 , there are striking anomalies in the British electricity markets .
The following chart , drawn by the author from BM Reports data , shows daily electrical energy ( MWh ) transmitted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a substantial fall in electricity consumption .
Domestic consumption may be rising as a result of the Stay at Home policy , but it is nowhere near offsetting the fall in industrial and commercial consumption .
Figure 1 : Daily electrical energy ( GWh ) transmitted over the British electricity network , from 1st of January to 23rd April 2020 ( red line ) , compared to the historical norm ( grey line ) .
Source : Chart by the author , data from BM Reports .
Of course , that decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of what is normal for the time year , and the grey line shows that demand normally begins to fall from January onwards .
The red line shows that this year was no exception , with the decline beginning even in January well before the first warnings about Covid-19 were given .
Furthermore , demand was already low relative to the historical norm for these months , because of unusually warm weather .
Consequently , some part of the decline seen towards the end of the charted is to be expected .
Nevertheless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into account the abrupt nature of the decline in consumption after the 23rd of March is obvious .
Furthermore , there is a clear loss of the familiar structure in the pattern of demand , a feature which is still more evident in the pattern of instantaneous load ( MW ) on the network by half-hourly settlement period .
Compare the following two charts , the first of which graphs load from the 1st of January to the 24th of February , while the second charts the period from the 1st of March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 .
National Demand ( the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load , hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports ) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of January to 24th February ( MW ) .
Source : Chart by the author : National Grid data .
Figure 3 .
National Demand ( the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load , hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports ) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of March to 23rd April ( MW ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : National Grid data .
Before the lockdown the pattern of load is highly but regularly variable , exhibiting repetitive periodicities on several timescales , all patterns well known to the grid operators .
The second chart shows the regularly and highly differentiated pattern of electricity demand both falling and becoming temporarily more chaotic as it moves towards a new and less differentiated equilibrium at a lower level .
This is not only new and unfamiliar territory for the system operators , but has accelerated the arrival of problems with the large and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the system is probably not quite ready .
National Grid ESO ’ s Summer Outlook for electricity , published on the 15th of April , puts a brave face on the matter , but can not conceal the difficulties .
The ESO ’ s principal concern is a combination of low demand and a high proportion of inflexible or relatively inflexible renewable generation , leading to system balancing problems .
Assuming that demand can not be increased on request , the operator must prevent hazardous increases in voltage , by reducing generation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inertia to preserve system stability .
There are already significant reductions in demand , and NG ESO ’ s medium impact scenario envisages these continuing into the summer with a demand reduction of 7 % overnight and 13 % during the day .
The high impact scenario involves reductions of 13 % overnight and 20 % during the day .
In fact , reductions approaching the high impact scenario are already being observed , with National Grid commenting that in April the UK electricity system served low loads not usually seen until the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and August .
To illustrate this point the Summer Outlook provides a graphic comparing actual demand on the 14th of April with the demand that would otherwise have been expected .
Figure 4 : Demand ( MW ) predicted pre-Covid for the 14th April ( yellow line ) , compared with actual demand ( orange line ) .
Source : NG ESO , Summer Outlook ( April 2020 ) , p. 6 .
The largest demand fall in the chart appears to be in the order of 19 % , and generally the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comments , “ between [ the ] ‘ medium impact ’ and ‘ high impact ’ scenarios ” considered in the Summer Outlook .
One might on that basis suspect that the summer impact scenarios are overly optimistic , but it is probable that National Grid is expecting the lockdown restrictions to be eased , keeping demand suppression within the bounds of its high scenario .
If , on the other hand , the restrictions are maintained or even strengthened then the possibility of demand cuts exceeding 20 % are clearly possible .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ spring and summer demand poses real difficulties for control room operators , since they are now working with a generation fleet that is to a large degree non-dispatchable , 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power for example , and may seek to provide energy to system even when not required .
Table 2 of the Summer Outlook describes a maximum demand of only 25.7 GW in the high impact scenario , and a minimum demand of 15 GW , a minimum that has already been observed in April .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ must retain sufficient conventional , rotating plant to provide stabilising inertia , but also find room if required for the 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power , both uncontrollable .
Of the two , it is the solar fleet that is giving NG ESO the most cause for concern .
About wind , they can afford to be relatively relaxed since , firstly , output tends to be low in the summer months , and , secondly , they have extensive experience of constraining wind off the system through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of £101 million so far this year ) .
That said , it is highly significant that the Summer Outlook refers to the use of an additional instrument , namely “ direct trade ” ( see p 15 ) to buy wind farms off the system .
Bilateral trades of this kind with wind farms have not been used intensively for quite some time , and their return is a sure sign of emergency measures .
It ’ s a topic to watch .

From The GWPF
Date: 04/25/20
Dr John Constable, GWPF Energy Editor
The restrictions on economic and personal activity imposed to address the spread of the coronavirus are reducing electricity demand in the UK to unusually low levels, increasing the difficulties of operating the system, particularly in the presence of embedded solar and wind generation.
As a result of the restrictions on economic activity and personal movement, designed to reduce the rate of transmission of Covid-19, there are striking anomalies in the British electricity markets. The following chart, drawn by the author from BM Reports data, shows daily electrical energy (MWh) transmitted over the network, and gives evidence of a substantial fall in electricity consumption. Domestic consumption may be rising as a result of the Stay at Home policy, but it is nowhere near offsetting the fall in industrial and commercial consumption.
Figure 1: Daily electrical energy (GWh) transmitted over the British electricity network, from 1st of January to 23rd April 2020 (red line), compared to the historical norm (grey line). Source: Chart by the author, data from BM Reports.
Of course, that decline has to be understood against the background of what is normal for the time year, and the grey line shows that demand normally begins to fall from January onwards. The red line shows that this year was no exception, with the decline beginning even in January well before the first warnings about Covid-19 were given. Furthermore, demand was already low relative to the historical norm for these months, because of unusually warm weather. Consequently, some part of the decline seen towards the end of the charted is to be expected. Nevertheless, even when these factors are taken into account the abrupt nature of the decline in consumption after the 23rd of March is obvious.
Furthermore, there is a clear loss of the familiar structure in the pattern of demand, a feature which is still more evident in the pattern of instantaneous load (MW) on the network by half-hourly settlement period. Compare the following two charts, the first of which graphs load from the 1st of January to the 24th of February, while the second charts the period from the 1st of March to the 23rd of April.
Figure 2. National Demand (the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load, hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of January to 24th February (MW). Source: Chart by the author: National Grid data.
Figure 3. National Demand (the sum of metered generation excluding generation required to meet station load, hydro storage pumping and interconnector exports) by half-hourly settlement period from the 1st of March to 23rd April (MW). Source: Chart by the author: National Grid data.
Before the lockdown the pattern of load is highly but regularly variable, exhibiting repetitive periodicities on several timescales, all patterns well known to the grid operators. The second chart shows the regularly and highly differentiated pattern of electricity demand both falling and becoming temporarily more chaotic as it moves towards a new and less differentiated equilibrium at a lower level. This is not only new and unfamiliar territory for the system operators, but has accelerated the arrival of problems with the large and inflexible renewables fleets, problems for which the system is probably not quite ready.
National Grid ESO’s Summer Outlook for electricity, published on the 15th of April, puts a brave face on the matter, but cannot conceal the difficulties. The ESO’s principal concern is a combination of low demand and a high proportion of inflexible or relatively inflexible renewable generation, leading to system balancing problems. Assuming that demand cannot be increased on request, the operator must prevent hazardous increases in voltage, by reducing generation, while at the same time maintaining sufficient inertia to preserve system stability.
There are already significant reductions in demand, and NG ESO’s medium impact scenario envisages these continuing into the summer with a demand reduction of 7% overnight and 13% during the day. The high impact scenario involves reductions of 13% overnight and 20% during the day. In fact, reductions approaching the high impact scenario are already being observed, with National Grid commenting that in April the UK electricity system served low loads not usually seen until the much warmer, holiday months of July and August. To illustrate this point the Summer Outlook provides a graphic comparing actual demand on the 14th of April with the demand that would otherwise have been expected.
Figure 4: Demand (MW) predicted pre-Covid for the 14th April (yellow line), compared with actual demand (orange line). Source: NG ESO, Summer Outlook (April 2020), p. 6.
The largest demand fall in the chart appears to be in the order of 19%, and generally the currently observed reduction is, as NG comments, “between [the]‘medium impact’ and ‘high impact’ scenarios” considered in the Summer Outlook.
One might on that basis suspect that the summer impact scenarios are overly optimistic, but it is probable that National Grid is expecting the lockdown restrictions to be eased, keeping demand suppression within the bounds of its high scenario. If, on the other hand, the restrictions are maintained or even strengthened then the possibility of demand cuts exceeding 20% are clearly possible.
A reduction of approaching 20% on spring and summer demand poses real difficulties for control room operators, since they are now working with a generation fleet that is to a large degree non-dispatchable, 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power for example, and may seek to provide energy to system even when not required. Table 2 of the Summer Outlook describes a maximum demand of only 25.7 GW in the high impact scenario, and a minimum demand of 15 GW, a minimum that has already been observed in April. In between these limits, the operator must retain sufficient conventional, rotating plant to provide stabilising inertia, but also find room if required for the 23 GW of wind and 12 GW of solar power, both uncontrollable.
Of the two, it is the solar fleet that is giving NG ESO the most cause for concern. About wind, they can afford to be relatively relaxed since, firstly, output tends to be low in the summer months, and, secondly, they have extensive experience of constraining wind off the system through the Balancing Mechanism (at a cost of £101 million so far this year). That said, it is highly significant that the Summer Outlook refers to the use of an additional instrument, namely “direct trade” (see p 15) to buy wind farms off the system. Bilateral trades of this kind with wind farms have not been used intensively for quite some time, and their return is a sure sign of emergency measures. It’s a topic to watch.
Full article here.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Covid-19 death rate far lower than previous estimates

Up to 85 times more people than previously assumed have already had Covid-19 without showing significant symptoms , new research shows .
This “ reduces the danger of the disease accordingly.
” ______________ A new serological study in Los Angeles County found that 28 to 55 times more people had Covid19 than previously assumed ( without showing significant symptoms ) , which reduces the danger of the disease accordingly.
” “ A new serological study by Stanford University found antibodies in 50 to 85 times more people than previously thought in Santa Clara County , California , resulting in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % or even lower ( i.e .
in the range of severe influenza ) .
Professor John Ioannidis explains the study in a new video.
” And near Boston , for good measure “ In the city of Chelsea near Boston , about one third of 200 blood donors had antibodies against the Covid19 pathogen .
Half of them reported having experienced a cold symptom in the last month .
In a homeless shelter near Boston , just over a third of the people tested positive , but nobody showed any symptoms.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here : https : //swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ .
It is a compendium of factual information ; whatever is learned about the virus is posted here .
It has begun to add a few political happenings too .
The post Covid-19 death rate far lower than previous estimates appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Up to 85 times more people than previously assumed have already had Covid-19 without showing significant symptoms, new research shows. This “reduces the danger of the disease accordingly.”
______________
Covid-19 death rate far lower than previous estimates
Penelope
“Here’s a sampling for L.A. County
A new serological study in Los Angeles County found that 28 to 55 times more people had Covid19 than previously assumed (without showing significant symptoms), which reduces the danger of the disease accordingly.”
Here’s one in Santa Clarita County
“A new serological study by Stanford University found antibodies in 50 to 85 times more people than previously thought in Santa Clara County, California, resulting in a Covid-19 lethality of 0.12% to 0.2% or even lower (i.e. in the range of severe influenza). Professor John Ioannidis explains the study in a new video.”
And near Boston, for good measure
“In the city of Chelsea near Boston, about one third of 200 blood donors had antibodies against the Covid19 pathogen. Half of them reported having experienced a cold symptom in the last month. In a homeless shelter near Boston, just over a third of the people tested positive, but nobody showed any symptoms.”
Source (and my favorite site) here: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/. It is a compendium of factual information; whatever is learned about the virus is posted here. It has begun to add a few political happenings too.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328
(Thanks also to JNS and Earl for these links)
The post Covid-19 death rate far lower than previous estimates appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 25, 2020 at 03:30PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--“An Egregious Statistical Horror Story”

“An Egregious Statistical Horror Story”

An egregious statistical horror story of millions of projected deaths , suffused with incense and lugubrious accents from Imperial College @ @ @ @ @ of Public Health , prompted the pols to impose a vandalistic lockdown on the economy @ @ @ @ @ an outrage even if the assumptions were not wildly astronomically wrong .
Flattening the curve @ @ @ @ @ s errand that widened the damage .

An egregious statistical horror story of millions of projected deaths, suffused with incense and lugubrious accents from Imperial College of London to Harvard School of Public Health, prompted the pols to impose a vandalistic lockdown on the economy. It would have been an outrage even if the assumptions were not wildly astronomically wrong.
Flattening the curve was always a fool’s errand that widened the damage.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Coal Needed to Power Recovery

Coal Needed to Power Recovery

By Conor Bernstein explains at Real Clear Energy For Energy , Affordability , Reliability , and Balance Matter More Now Than Ever .
Excerpts in italics with my bolds .
While we are still in the throes of the crisis , it ’ s essential we already plan for the recovery .
Affordable , secure and reliable power will be all the more important as the nation tries to get back on its feet .
But , if we aren ’ t careful , near-term market conditions could accelerate retirements of additional well-operating coal plants , further eroding the balanced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reliable power in markets across the country .
Even before the onset of the COVID-19 crisis , cracks were emerging in regional grids where fuel security and balance have been traded for increased reliance on just-in-time fuel delivery .
Shrinking reserve margins , flirtations with rolling blackouts and spiking wholesale electricity prices are becoming far too common for comfort .
Michigan offers the latest evidence of the challenges emerging from the pivot away from coal .
Just a week ago , the region ’ s grid operator , MISO , reported that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out in their annual capacity auction .
With a shrinking reserve margin , clearing prices for the capacity auction jumped 10 times what they had been a year ago .
This comes as Michigan utilities have closed more than a dozen coal plants since 2016 and have more retirements scheduled .
Wholesale electricity prices are going up just when consumers and industry need support for economic recovery .
The timing couldn ’ t be worse .
Michigan is turning to costly energy imports to ensure reliability .
The takeaway should be clear : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ driven by state policy – is coming with real costs .
As policymakers , regulators and utilities grapple with the ramifications of the pandemic , pumping the brakes on further plant retirements is a logical step to hedge against uncertainty and to ensure our balanced , affordable and reliable electricity mix doesn ’ t become another victim of this unprecedented moment .
Indiana , even before the crisis , had already moved to require additional review of proposed retirements to ensure utilities weren ’ t passing unnecessary costs onto consumers while weakening the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , do-no-harm approach to the electricity sector is exactly what ’ s needed across the country as we confront the uncertainty of the months ahead .
The past several years have seen a shift away from what we know works – balance , certainty , fuel security – to increased reliance on thinner margins , weather-dependent resources and the inherent vulnerability of just-in-time fuel delivery .
With global supply chains turned upside down , with chaos wreaking havoc across the oil and gas sector , and the economy shaken to the core , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of our pants into the unknown and of utilities filing a record number of rate cases needs to end .
Time and again , grid operators overestimate capacity additions while underestimating retirements .
That kind of miscalculation , in a perilous moment like this , could prove disastrous .
Now , more than ever , we need smart policymaking that puts reliability , resilience and affordability first .
Ensuring we maintain essential coal generating capacity and properly value the security and balance it brings to the grid must be a priority .

By Conor Bernstein explains at Real Clear Energy For Energy, Affordability, Reliability, and Balance Matter More Now Than Ever. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.
While we are still in the throes of the crisis, it’s essential we already plan for the recovery. Affordable, secure and reliable power will be all the more important as the nation tries to get back on its feet.
But, if we aren’t careful, near-term market conditions could accelerate retirements of additional well-operating coal plants, further eroding the balanced electricity mix that has long ensured affordable, reliable power in markets across the country.
Even before the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, cracks were emerging in regional grids where fuel security and balance have been traded for increased reliance on just-in-time fuel delivery. Shrinking reserve margins, flirtations with rolling blackouts and spiking wholesale electricity prices are becoming far too common for comfort.
Michigan offers the latest evidence of the challenges emerging from the pivot away from coal. Just a week ago, the region’s grid operator, MISO, reported that capacity prices for the Lower Peninsula maxed out in their annual capacity auction. With a shrinking reserve margin, clearing prices for the capacity auction jumped 10 times what they had been a year ago.
This comes as Michigan utilities have closed more than a dozen coal plants since 2016 and have more retirements scheduled.
Wholesale electricity prices are going up just when consumers and industry need support for economic recovery. The timing couldn’t be worse. Michigan is turning to costly energy imports to ensure reliability. The takeaway should be clear: the shift away from coal – often driven by state policy – is coming with real costs.
As policymakers, regulators and utilities grapple with the ramifications of the pandemic, pumping the brakes on further plant retirements is a logical step to hedge against uncertainty and to ensure our balanced, affordable and reliable electricity mix doesn’t become another victim of this unprecedented moment.
Indiana, even before the crisis, had already moved to require additional review of proposed retirements to ensure utilities weren’t passing unnecessary costs onto consumers while weakening the reliability of the grid. A thoughtful, do-no-harm approach to the electricity sector is exactly what’s needed across the country as we confront the uncertainty of the months ahead.
The past several years have seen a shift away from what we know works – balance, certainty, fuel security – to increased reliance on thinner margins, weather-dependent resources and the inherent vulnerability of just-in-time fuel delivery. With global supply chains turned upside down, with chaos wreaking havoc across the oil and gas sector, and the economy shaken to the core, the era of flying by the seat of our pants into the unknown and of utilities filing a record number of rate cases needs to end.
Time and again, grid operators overestimate capacity additions while underestimating retirements. That kind of miscalculation, in a perilous moment like this, could prove disastrous. Now, more than ever, we need smart policymaking that puts reliability, resilience and affordability first. Ensuring we maintain essential coal generating capacity and properly value the security and balance it brings to the grid must be a priority.
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April 25, 2020 at 12:47PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Effectiveness Of The New Zealand Lockdown

I know a number of leftists who brag about the success of the government COVID tyranny in New Zealand .
@ @ @ @ @ this from Australia .
Have a look at Australia v. New Zealand .
New Zealand @ @ @ @ @ much harder lockdowns than Australia – causing greater unemployment and more steeply declining GDP .
@ @ @ @ @ capita almost mirror Australia .
They caused all this extra harm and suffering for nothing @ @ @ @ @ leader is being praised across the world , with claims her actions show harsh lockdowns @ @ @ @ @ compare to Australia – it shows they make no difference .

I know a number of leftists who brag about the success of the government COVID tyranny in New Zealand. MP Craig Kelley sent me this from Australia.
Have a look at Australia v. New Zealand.
New Zealand with their socialist leader implement much harder lockdowns than Australia – causing greater unemployment and more steeply declining GDP.
However their coronavirus cases per capita almost mirror Australia.
They caused all this extra harm and suffering for nothing – yet their female socialist leader is being praised across the world, with claims her actions show harsh lockdowns work – but when you compare to Australia – it shows they make no difference.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--The Great Pandemic Of 2018

The Great Pandemic Of 2018

I ’ m old enough to remember the great pandemic of 2018 , when we didn ’ t destroy our @ @ @ @ @ uncontrollable panic .
Over 80,000 Americans Died of Flu Last Winter , Highest Toll in @ @ @ @ @ Times

I’m old enough to remember the great pandemic of 2018, when we didn’t destroy our economy and go into an uncontrollable panic.
Over 80,000 Americans Died of Flu Last Winter, Highest Toll in Years – The New York Times


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Oil Price Collapse –> Next Peak Oil Frenzy?

Guest “ oil ’ s well that ends well ” by David Middleton The ChiCom-19 hostage crisis certainly makes strange bedfellows .
Over the past few weeks I have been agreeing with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price on the need to end the hostage crisis now .
In the 35 years , Mr. Price has served as a county commissioner , I don ’ t think I ’ ve ever agreed with him before .
Matt Egan , lead writer for CNN Business , actually wrote an article about the oil industry that made sense .
His work is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t even have ridicule value… But , like a “ blind squirrel occasionally getting the nut ” … How negative oil prices could set the stage for the next price boom New York ( CNN Business ) The boom-to-bust oil market is experiencing one of its darkest moments in history.Oil demand is collapsing because of the coronavirus crisis .
Supply is shrinking — but not nearly fast enough .
The world is literally running out of room to store unneeded barrels of oil piling up during the coronavirus pandemic .
That storage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil prices to turn negative this week for the first time ever .
The crash is forcing a reckoning in the oil industry — a painful one .
Many shale oil producers have canceled drilling plans .
Others have been forced to shut down active wells .
Some frackers won ’ t survive at all .
But the violent rebalancing in the oil market might be so overdone that it will set the stage for a spike in prices .
When and if demand recovers , there might not be enough supply to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an epic bust .
As hard as it may be to believe , the next step is a boom , ” said Pavel Molchanov , energy analyst at Raymond James .
“ When demand returns to something close to normal levels , it ’ s quite possible there will be a shortage situation in 2021 , ” Molchanov said .
“ With ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill , production will soon need to fall sizably to bring the market into balance , ” Goldman ’ s Courvalin wrote , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices once demand gradually recovers.
” “ This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks , not months , with the market likely forced into balance before June , ” Courvalin wrote .
Companies are cutting production in two ways .
First , they are slashing their spending plans for drilling new and uncompleted wells .
For instance , ExxonMobil ( XOM ) cut its 2020 spending by 30 % , including a large focus on the Permian Basin shale oilfield in West Texas .
Secondly , and most importantly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on active wells through a painful process known as “ shut-ins.
” And there is no guarantee those taps can or will get turned back on at full capacity .
“ It will take time and money to turn it back on .
It ’ s not like a light switch , ” David Trainer , CEO of New Constructs , an investment research firm based in Nashville .
“ When demand comes back online , there won ’ t be as many people there to make the oil , ” said Trainer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ make the oil , ” if and when demand recovers , the longer the downturn , the longer it will take to bring production back up .
When supply growth lags behind demand growth , prices quickly rise .
Unless the Fire Marshal Gumps of the world intend on perpetuating the ChiCom-19 forever , oil demand will recover and the supply might not be readily available .
The Peak Oilers , who haven ’ t read Hubbert and don ’ t even know what “ peak oil ” is , will likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cliff into Olduvai Gorge .
They ’ ll be just as wrong as they were the last time demand exceeded supply and prices skyorocketed .
So , the world faces two possible paths And… there ’ s another silver lining to this very dark cloud : The possibility that this may lead to increased emissions Historically , low oil prices have created headaches for climate advocates .
Cheap oil means cheaper gas at the pump , leading people to drive more and spend more on emissions-intensive consumer goods .
Today , with much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aren ’ t consuming all that much or making big choices that drive up emissions , but businesses are still making those decisions , and low oil prices reduce the incentive to change .
A delivery company purchasing a new van fleet would be less inclined to go electric , for example .
A consumer food company considering switching its packaging away from oil-based plastic product may wait it out a few more years .
“ Oil is cheap .
It ’ s very hard to transition away from oil when it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stockman , senior research analyst at Oil Change International , which advocates for a transition away from fossil fuels .
“ And it ’ s particularly difficult when we don ’ t have a coherent policy on climate change.
” A key concern for many climate advocates is the possibility that natural gas—which in the U.S. is often produced alongside oil and remains cheap for many of the same reasons that oil does—will further solidify its position in the mix of electricity sources .
Low natural gas prices may entice utilities and policymakers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fuel rather than looking to renewable alternatives , and , because of the long lifespan of natural gas infrastructure , that would lock in decades of emissions .
So it basically boils down to : The Fire Marshal Gumps of the world need a permanent ChiCom-19 hostage crisis in order to prevent the weather from changing… Sort of like if Stanley Kubrick directed a movie based on a George Orwell novel .
In my never ending effort to eliminate political correctness , I refer to all things coronavirus as ChiCom-19 .
County Judge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dallas County and presides over the County Commissioners Court .
He looks like the Jim Carrey character , Fire Marshal Bill from In Living Color and he talks like Forrest Gump .
Gump appears to be hell-bent on perpetuating the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis forever .

Guest “oil’s well that ends well” by David Middleton
The ChiCom-19 hostage crisis certainly makes strange bedfellows. Over the past few weeks I have been agreeing with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price on the need to end the hostage crisis now. In the 35 years, Mr. Price has served as a county commissioner, I don’t think I’ve ever agreed with him before. Matt Egan, lead writer for CNN Business, actually wrote an article about the oil industry that made sense. His work is usually so awful, that it doesn’t even have ridicule value… But, like a “blind squirrel occasionally getting the nut”…
How negative oil prices could set the stage for the next price boom By Matt Egan, CNN Business Updated 10:41 AM ET, Thu April 23, 2020 New York (CNN Business)The boom-to-bust oil market is experiencing one of its darkest moments in history.Oil demand is collapsing because of the coronavirus crisis. Supply is shrinking — but not nearly fast enough. The world is literally running out of room to store unneeded barrels of oil piling up during the coronavirus pandemic. That storage problem is so dire that it caused oil prices to turn negative this week for the first time ever. The crash is forcing a reckoning in the oil industry — a painful one. Many shale oil producers have canceled drilling plans. Others have been forced to shut down active wells. Some frackers won’t survive at all. But the violent rebalancing in the oil market might be so overdone that it will set the stage for a spike in prices. When and if demand recovers, there might not be enough supply to meet it. […] “We are in an epic bust. As hard as it may be to believe, the next step is a boom,” said Pavel Molchanov, energy analyst at Raymond James. […] “When demand returns to something close to normal levels, it’s quite possible there will be a shortage situation in 2021,” Molchanov said. […] “With ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill, production will soon need to fall sizably to bring the market into balance,” Goldman’s Courvalin wrote, “finally setting the stage for higher prices once demand gradually recovers.” […] “This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced into balance before June,” Courvalin wrote. Companies are cutting production in two ways. First, they are slashing their spending plans for drilling new and uncompleted wells. For instance, ExxonMobil (XOM) cut its 2020 spending by 30%, including a large focus on the Permian Basin shale oilfield in West Texas. Secondly, and most importantly, oil companies are turning the taps off on active wells through a painful process known as “shut-ins.” And there is no guarantee those taps can or will get turned back on at full capacity. “It will take time and money to turn it back on. It’s not like a light switch,” David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm based in Nashville. […] “When demand comes back online, there won’t be as many people there to make the oil,” said Trainer. […] CNN Business
While we don’t technically “make the oil,” if and when demand recovers, the longer the downturn, the longer it will take to bring production back up. When supply growth lags behind demand growth, prices quickly rise.
Unless the Fire Marshal Gumps of the world intend on perpetuating the ChiCom-19 forever, oil demand will recover and the supply might not be readily available. The Peak Oilers, who haven’t read Hubbert and don’t even know what “peak oil” is, will likely start babbling about falling off a Seneca Cliff into Olduvai Gorge. They’ll be just as wrong as they were the last time demand exceeded supply and prices skyorocketed. So, the world faces two possible paths
And… there’s another silver lining to this very dark cloud:
The possibility that this may lead to increased emissions Historically, low oil prices have created headaches for climate advocates. Cheap oil means cheaper gas at the pump, leading people to drive more and spend more on emissions-intensive consumer goods. Today, with much of the world locked down, consumers aren’t consuming all that much or making big choices that drive up emissions, but businesses are still making those decisions, and low oil prices reduce the incentive to change. A delivery company purchasing a new van fleet would be less inclined to go electric, for example. A consumer food company considering switching its packaging away from oil-based plastic product may wait it out a few more years. “Oil is cheap. It’s very hard to transition away from oil when it’s very cheap,” says Lorne Stockman, senior research analyst at Oil Change International, which advocates for a transition away from fossil fuels. “And it’s particularly difficult when we don’t have a coherent policy on climate change.” A key concern for many climate advocates is the possibility that natural gas—which in the U.S. is often produced alongside oil and remains cheap for many of the same reasons that oil does—will further solidify its position in the mix of electricity sources. Low natural gas prices may entice utilities and policymakers to continue to rely on the fossil fuel rather than looking to renewable alternatives, and, because of the long lifespan of natural gas infrastructure, that would lock in decades of emissions. Time Magazine
So it basically boils down to: The Fire Marshal Gumps of the world need a permanent ChiCom-19 hostage crisis in order to prevent the weather from changing… Sort of like if Stanley Kubrick directed a movie based on a George Orwell novel.
Day Forty-something of America Held Hostage by ChiCom-19
Local news, as of noon Friday…
4/25/2020 Dallas County CHICOM-19 Population Cases Deaths 2,637,772 2,834 77 2.7% % of population with 0.11% 0.00% % with, rounded 0.1% 0.00% % without 99.89% 100.00% % without, rounded 99.9% 100.0% Menodoza Line (.200) 2/27/2035 0.200
ChiCom-19?
In my never ending effort to eliminate political correctness, I refer to all things coronavirus as ChiCom-19.
Fire Marshal Gump?
County Judge Clay Jenkins is the chief executive of Dallas County and presides over the County Commissioners Court. He looks like the Jim Carrey character, Fire Marshal Bill from In Living Color and he talks like Forrest Gump. Gump appears to be hell-bent on perpetuating the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis forever.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--April 25, and Murmansk still covered by a foot of snow

A southern cyclone originating five days ago in the Black Sea region brought snowfalls with blizzards to the Russian North @ @ @ @ @ the cyclone shifted through the Middle Volga , the Volga-Vyatka region and the Komi Republic @ @ @ @ @ reached Novaya Zemlya , the Southerner sharply turned towards the Kola Peninsula .
One-meter drifts @ @ @ @ @ North .
For example , in the village of Shoyna ( Arkhangelsk region ) , @ @ @ @ @ cm !
Last winter Murmansk endured the snowiest in 80 years of observation .
On @ @ @ @ @ station noted 30 cm of snow cover still remains .
Thanks to Martin Seibert for @ @ @ @ @ 25 , and Murmansk still covered by a foot of snow appeared first on Ice @ @ @

A southern cyclone originating five days ago in the Black Sea region brought snowfalls with blizzards to the Russian North.
Within a week, the cyclone shifted through the Middle Volga, the Volga-Vyatka region and the Komi Republic to the Arctic. Having reached Novaya Zemlya, the Southerner sharply turned towards the Kola Peninsula.
One-meter drifts still remain in the Russian North.
For example, in the village of Shoyna (Arkhangelsk region), the snow cover is 140 cm!
Last winter Murmansk endured the snowiest in 80 years of observation.
On April 25, the weather station noted 30 cm of snow cover still remains.
Photo review:
https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/weather/25-aprelya-murmansk-zamelo-30-sm-snega-fotoobzor/
Thanks to Martin Seibert for this link
The post April 25, and Murmansk still covered by a foot of snow appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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April 25, 2020 at 11:22AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-25--Communism Extra Stout! Moore, Gibbs Propose Killing Unborn, Revocation Of Property Rights To Save Pl

Communism Extra Stout! Moore, Gibbs Propose Killing Unborn, Revocation Of Property Rights To Save Planet

Although the newly released Planet of the Humans documentary takes a critical look at green energies , it creators take an even harsher view of western democracy and its free market system .
On Earth Day ( April 22nd ) film producer Michael Moore held a livestream podcast with director Jeff Gibbs and Ozzie Zehner , where they discuss their documentary and speak about what needs to be done .
One thing is clear : When it comes to the planet , the trio are caught in a self-perpetuating spiral of pessimism which they ’ ll never be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ They view humans as a cancerous disease that has to be urgently stopped .
“ The pandemic is because the earth is very upset with us .
Timeout !
” says Gibbs .
“ This timeout is good.
” “ We are the most destructive creature that ever existed on the planet .
We have to own that , ” Gibbs adds .
Director Gibbs also says it ’ s “ really sad ” that the top 1 % wealthy – the real enemy ” – are involved in the green movement .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ in very serious , serious trouble ” and we have lost our way .
The environmental movement , they say , has sold out to big corporations .
Moreover all three in the podcast agree that not only fossil fuels are bad , but so are green energies and nuclear .
This leaves listeners to wonder : What ’ s left ?
Where are humans supposed to get their power from ?
Squirrel cages ?
For all the criticism they have for human activity today , they offer very little in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profoundly radical yet vague transformation of how humans should live on the planet .
“ We need to take over the the entire environmental movement , to start a new one , ” says Gibbs , one that is aimed at achieving “ true sustainability ” , which for Gibbs means “ less of everything , sharing everything.
” The blueprint of the transformation they ’ re hinting at , however , hasn ’ t even reached the concept phase , has not even reached the infancy of being thought out .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need .
They complain endlessly , but offer no real alternatives .
Doing away with property rights , “ sharing more ” According to Gibbs , unbridled consumption is the problem .
Humans need to start doing less , being lazier , to stop cutting the grass .
He also suggests that the element of profit needs to be eradicated from all human activity .
So do property rights .
To save the planet , Gibbs declares that humans need to be “ sharing more ” .
Is it really necessary for everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the new more , ” says Gibbs .
Moore uses the example of sharing bicycles , or even cameras .
Everything can be shared .
Sharing of course , means no individual property rights .
In their world , we ’ d have to wait 15 years just to get the chance to share a government-issued Lada , let alone own one .
Another way to save the planet , Moore suggests , is to kill the unborn .
“ You wan na save the planet , support Planned Parenthood.
” What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s Communism – Extra Stout .
Many people would in fact be denied existence .
When asked if they themselves may be behaving hypocritically when using technology , Gibbs seems to blame others for it , like he wouldn ’ t need to do it if everyone else just behaved properly .
While preaching all this , Zehner is seen drinking from a plastic cup .
Education is bad for the planet ?
Zehner even went on to suggest that advanced education is bad for the planet : “ PhDs do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy impact on the planet .
It takes an enormous amount of infrastructure to support a society that educates people , and so when you start going back into the system and looking back at the overall footprint of nuclear , it starts to look a lot different.
” Overall , Gibbs says it gets down to “ getting a grip on ourselves ” , and admits that he has not yet figured out how to restrain even himself .
During the podcast , Gibbs frets that since the pandemic began , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ born .
“ If we go back to normal , we ’ re just gon na go back to the same destruction .
”

Although the newly released Planet of the Humans documentary takes a critical look at green energies, it creators take an even harsher view of western democracy and its free market system.
On Earth Day (April 22nd) film producer Michael Moore held a livestream podcast with director Jeff Gibbs and Ozzie Zehner, where they discuss their documentary and speak about what needs to be done.
Humans are the scourge
One thing is clear: When it comes to the planet, the trio are caught in a self-perpetuating spiral of pessimism which they’ll never be able to climb out of on their own. They view humans as a cancerous disease that has to be urgently stopped.
“The pandemic is because the earth is very upset with us. Timeout!” says Gibbs. “This timeout is good.”
“The planet has cancer,” Moore suggests.
“We are the most destructive creature that ever existed on the planet. We have to own that,” Gibbs adds.
Sold out to big corporations
Director Gibbs also says it’s “really sad” that the top 1% wealthy – the real enemy” – are involved in the green movement. In their view, the planet is “in very serious, serious trouble” and we have lost our way. The environmental movement, they say, has sold out to big corporations.
Abolish all energy sources!
Moreover all three in the podcast agree that not only fossil fuels are bad, but so are green energies and nuclear. This leaves listeners to wonder: What’s left? Where are humans supposed to get their power from? Squirrel cages?
Megatons of complaint, zero solutions
For all the criticism they have for human activity today, they offer very little in terms of solutions. Instead they declare a profoundly radical yet vague transformation of how humans should live on the planet. “We need to take over the the entire environmental movement, to start a new one,” says Gibbs, one that is aimed at achieving “true sustainability”, which for Gibbs means “less of everything, sharing everything.”
The blueprint of the transformation they’re hinting at, however, hasn’t even reached the concept phase, has not even reached the infancy of being thought out. Yet, they insist it is what we need. They complain endlessly, but offer no real alternatives.
Doing away with property rights, “sharing more”
According to Gibbs, unbridled consumption is the problem. Humans need to start doing less, being lazier, to stop cutting the grass. He also suggests that the element of profit needs to be eradicated from all human activity. So do property rights.
To save the planet, Gibbs declares that humans need to be “sharing more”. Is it really necessary for everyone to own every thing? “Less is the new more,” says Gibbs.
Communism – Extra Stout!
Moore uses the example of sharing bicycles, or even cameras. Everything can be shared. Sharing of course, means no individual property rights. In their world, we’d have to wait 15 years just to get the chance to share a government-issued Lada, let alone own one.
Another way to save the planet, Moore suggests, is to kill the unborn. “You wanna save the planet, support Planned Parenthood.”
What they propose is worse than communism. It’s Communism – Extra Stout. Many people would in fact be denied existence.
When asked if they themselves may be behaving hypocritically when using technology, Gibbs seems to blame others for it, like he wouldn’t need to do it if everyone else just behaved properly. While preaching all this, Zehner is seen drinking from a plastic cup.
Education is bad for the planet?
Zehner even went on to suggest that advanced education is bad for the planet: “PhDs do not have a zero carbon or zero energy impact on the planet. It takes an enormous amount of infrastructure to support a society that educates people, and so when you start going back into the system and looking back at the overall footprint of nuclear, it starts to look a lot different.”
Getting a grip
Overall, Gibbs says it gets down to “getting a grip on ourselves”, and admits that he has not yet figured out how to restrain even himself.
During the podcast, Gibbs frets that since the pandemic began, “something like 20 million people” were born. “If we go back to normal, we’re just gonna go back to the same destruction.”
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April 25, 2020 at 10:34AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Coronavirus recovery plan ‘must tackle climate change’-BBC

This is something we are going to hear a lot more of in coming months , the idea that any economic recovery plan should be centred around the Green New Deal agenda : Tackling climate change must be woven into the solution to the Covid-19 economic crisis , the UK will tell governments next week .
Environment ministers from 30 countries are meeting in a two-day online conference in a bid to make progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions .
The gathering is called the `` Petersberg Climate Dialogue '' .
It will focus on how to organise a `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phase of the pandemic is over .
The other aim is to forge international agreement on ambitious carbon cuts despite the postponement of the key conference COP26 – previously scheduled for Glasgow in November ( now without a date ) .
Alok Sharma , the UK Climate Secretary and president of COP26 , said : `` I am committed to increasing global climate ambition so that we deliver on the Paris Agreement ( to stabilise temperature rise well below 2C ) .
`` The world must work together , as it has to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support a green and resilient recovery , which leaves no one behind .
`` At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue , we will come together to discuss how we can turn ambition into real action. ''
… .
The EU is already set on delivering a green stimulus .
The Commission ’ s Green Deal chief , Frans Timmermans , said every euro spent on economic recovery measures after the COVID-19 crisis would be linked to the green and digital transitions .
`` The European Green Deal is a growth strategy and a winning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s not a luxury we drop when we hit another crisis .
It is essential for Europe ’ s future .
Meanwhile , China appears set on its current carbon-intensive development path , and President Trump says the US will rescue struggling fossil fuel firms .
Even in Europe there ’ s a degree of push-back against the idea of a green stimulus .
Markus Pieper , an MEP from the centre-right German CDU party , told the magazine FOCUS that the EU ’ s sweeping plan for investment in clean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He said : `` The Green Deal was a gigantic challenge for an economy in top shape .
After the corona bloodletting , it is simply not financially viable . ''
But the UK climate economist Lord Stern told BBC News : `` The immediate priority is the current Covid crisis – but then we have to build for the future .
`` Timmermans is right and Trump is wrong .
We should only be bailing out firms that are going to contribute to tackling climate change .
`` They don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the moment – but they do have to be committed to cutting their emissions in line with international targets . ''
It is based on a classic piece of misconception .
If we can afford to spend hundreds of billions now bailing out the economy , why can ’ t we do the same every year in future to save the planet ?
The answer should really be obvious .
The reality is that we can not even really afford the current package , never mind one every year .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a V shaped recovery , with the economy quickly returning to previous levels of activity once the coronavirus has been sorted .
It is much more likely though that recovery will be much slower , particularly if solutions take longer to arrive .
The risk is that many companies will go under , jobs will be lost , and companies which survive will be loaded down with debt and unable to finance new investment and expansion .
Under this scenario , could a Green New Deal help to engineer economic growth ?
Well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the proposals made by its proponents , for instance more renewable energy such as offshore wind farms .
These may create some extra jobs , but to what end ?
They do not add any economic value , as they simply duplicate something we already have , ie power generation .
Worse still , they do so in an inefficient way .
We can say the same thing about spending billions on insulating houses and installing low carbon heating systems , another favourite of Green New Deal proponents .
Both this and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ create make-work jobs , that have less immediate financial benefit to the economy than the jobs cost to support .
You might just as well pay people to go around painting everybody ’ s houses green .
The inconvenient reality is that somebody has to pay the bill for these new jobs , whether through taxation or higher energy bills .
Then , of course , there is the obsession with electric cars .
Emission reduction mandates and threats to ban conventional cars are already causing much damage to the European car industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back jobs as a result .
Doubling down on the green agenda will weaken the industry further still .
Similarly other industries , already hammered by high energy prices , will be badly hit by plans to impose carbon storage , reduce emissions , raise carbon taxes and push up energy prices even further .
At the end of the day , COVID-19 is a global problem , along with the economic crisis it has brought with it .
Europe can not hide away and insulate itself behind its own green agenda .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay the price .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
This is something we are going to hear a lot more of in coming months, the idea that any economic recovery plan should be centred around the Green New Deal agenda:
Tackling climate change must be woven into the solution to the Covid-19 economic crisis, the UK will tell governments next week.
Environment ministers from 30 countries are meeting in a two-day online conference in a bid to make progress on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
The gathering is called the "Petersberg Climate Dialogue".
It will focus on how to organise a "green" economic recovery after the acute phase of the pandemic is over.
The other aim is to forge international agreement on ambitious carbon cuts despite the postponement of the key conference COP26 – previously scheduled for Glasgow in November (now without a date).
Alok Sharma, the UK Climate Secretary and president of COP26, said: "I am committed to increasing global climate ambition so that we deliver on the Paris Agreement (to stabilise temperature rise well below 2C).
"The world must work together, as it has to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, to support a green and resilient recovery, which leaves no one behind.
"At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, we will come together to discuss how we can turn ambition into real action."….
The EU is already set on delivering a green stimulus. The Commission’s Green Deal chief, Frans Timmermans, said every euro spent on economic recovery measures after the COVID-19 crisis would be linked to the green and digital transitions.
"The European Green Deal is a growth strategy and a winning strategy," he tweeted.
"It’s not a luxury we drop when we hit another crisis. It is essential for Europe’s future.
Meanwhile, China appears set on its current carbon-intensive development path, and President Trump says the US will rescue struggling fossil fuel firms.
Even in Europe there’s a degree of push-back against the idea of a green stimulus .
Markus Pieper, an MEP from the centre-right German CDU party, told the magazine FOCUS that the EU’s sweeping plan for investment in clean technologies would no longer be possible.
He said: "The Green Deal was a gigantic challenge for an economy in top shape. After the corona bloodletting, it is simply not financially viable."
But the UK climate economist Lord Stern told BBC News: "The immediate priority is the current Covid crisis – but then we have to build for the future.
"Timmermans is right and Trump is wrong. We should only be bailing out firms that are going to contribute to tackling climate change.
"They don’t have be be ostensibly clean tech firms at the moment – but they do have to be committed to cutting their emissions in line with international targets."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52418624
It is based on a classic piece of misconception. If we can afford to spend hundreds of billions now bailing out the economy, why can’t we do the same every year in future to save the planet?
The answer should really be obvious. The reality is that we cannot even really afford the current package, never mind one every year.
In the best case scenario, there will be a V shaped recovery, with the economy quickly returning to previous levels of activity once the coronavirus has been sorted.
It is much more likely though that recovery will be much slower, particularly if solutions take longer to arrive. The risk is that many companies will go under, jobs will be lost, and companies which survive will be loaded down with debt and unable to finance new investment and expansion.
Meanwhile stagnant incomes will depress consumer spending.
Under this scenario, could a Green New Deal help to engineer economic growth?
Well, let’s look at some of the proposals made by its proponents, for instance more renewable energy such as offshore wind farms.
These may create some extra jobs, but to what end? They do not add any economic value, as they simply duplicate something we already have, ie power generation. Worse still, they do so in an inefficient way.
We can say the same thing about spending billions on insulating houses and installing low carbon heating systems, another favourite of Green New Deal proponents. Both this and renewable energy investment do no more than create make-work jobs, that have less immediate financial benefit to the economy than the jobs cost to support. You might just as well pay people to go around painting everybody’s houses green.
The inconvenient reality is that somebody has to pay the bill for these new jobs, whether through taxation or higher energy bills.
Then, of course, there is the obsession with electric cars. Emission reduction mandates and threats to ban conventional cars are already causing much damage to the European car industry, with German manufacturers in particular cutting back jobs as a result. Doubling down on the green agenda will weaken the industry further still.
Similarly other industries, already hammered by high energy prices, will be badly hit by plans to impose carbon storage, reduce emissions, raise carbon taxes and push up energy prices even further.
At the end of the day, COVID-19 is a global problem, along with the economic crisis it has brought with it. Europe cannot hide away and insulate itself behind its own green agenda.
If it does, its economies will pay the price.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
https://ift.tt/3aGdWHG
April 26, 2020 at 05:33AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Mandatory climate change classes plan for Scottish leaders

A case of the blind leading the blind ?
MSPs , business leaders and newly enrolled university students may be asked to take mandatory climate change studies if plans currently under consideration are adopted , reports The Herald .
The studies would help arm them with facts and knowledge to make urgent changes to society as it emerges from COVID-19 lockdown .
The Scottish Government has already committed to enrolling at least 100 senior officials to the Climate Solutions course .
The news comes just days before Tuesday ’ s one-year anniversary of Scotland ’ s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was devised by experts at the Perth-based Royal Scottish Geographical Society in partnership with the Institute of Directors , Stirling University ’ s Business School and the University of Edinburgh ’ s Centre for Carbon Innovation .
Among the main areas the course looks at are issues around transport , energy use , supply chains , social behaviours , mitigation and planning for the future .
Former UN executive secretary on climate change Christiana Figueres who brokered the Paris Agreement , former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who is now UN special @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ex Irish President Mary Robinson who set up a climate justice foundation , are among heavyweight names lending their support .
The man behind the idea , RSGS chief executive Mike Robinson , said a number of business leaders have already committed to undertake the course along with the Scottish Government , with further discussions to ensure new university students and MSPs can take part well-underway .
The studies are aimed at filling the gaps in knowledge , on a scientific and factual basis , with a focus on developing a structured plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the first planned workshop to be held in June .
He insists business leaders – and the farming community in particular – will play a key role in deciding future outcomes .

A case of the blind leading the blind?
MSPs, business leaders and newly enrolled university students may be asked to take mandatory climate change studies if plans currently under consideration are adopted, reports The Herald.
The studies would help arm them with facts and knowledge to make urgent changes to society as it emerges from COVID-19 lockdown.
The Scottish Government has already committed to enrolling at least 100 senior officials to the Climate Solutions course.
The news comes just days before Tuesday’s one-year anniversary of Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon declaring a climate emergency.
The course was devised by experts at the Perth-based Royal Scottish Geographical Society in partnership with the Institute of Directors, Stirling University’s Business School and the University of Edinburgh’s Centre for Carbon Innovation.
Among the main areas the course looks at are issues around transport, energy use, supply chains, social behaviours, mitigation and planning for the future.
Former UN executive secretary on climate change Christiana Figueres who brokered the Paris Agreement, former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who is now UN special envoy on climate action and finance and ex Irish President Mary Robinson who set up a climate justice foundation, are among heavyweight names lending their support.
The man behind the idea, RSGS chief executive Mike Robinson, said a number of business leaders have already committed to undertake the course along with the Scottish Government, with further discussions to ensure new university students and MSPs can take part well-underway.
The studies are aimed at filling the gaps in knowledge, on a scientific and factual basis, with a focus on developing a structured plan. Online modules are live now, with the first planned workshop to be held in June.
He insists business leaders – and the farming community in particular – will play a key role in deciding future outcomes.
Full report here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
https://ift.tt/3eNW4hs
April 26, 2020 at 05:06AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-04-26--Alternative resupply plan for RV Polarstern now in place

Thanks to the support of additional German research vessels , the MOSAiC expedition will continue , despite the coronavirus pandemic .
The new team will start in May .
Despite the current challenges , the MOSAiC expedition will continue .
After many national borders were closed in response to the coronavirus pandemic , one team transfer had to be postponed .
But thanks to new alternative plans supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research , the German Research Foundation and the operators of the German research fleet as well as the dedicated work of the expedition team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enter its next phase .
An interim review of the project shows : the data to be gathered over the next several months will be indispensable for the scientific community .
After successfully completing the first half of its more-than-a-year-long drift through the Arctic Ocean , the international expedition MOSAiC suddenly faced unforeseen challenges , posed by the coronavirus pandemic .
The massive restrictions on global travel hindered the third team exchange , which had been planned as an aerial transfer in early April , using the Spitsbergen archipelago ( which Norwegian authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic ) as a base of operations .
Since the current situation also means the international icebreakers that were originally meant to resupply the expedition are also prohibited from making any staff transfers , in the span of just a few weeks the Alfred Wegener Institute , Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research ( AWI ) , the MOSAiC Coordination Office and the funding bodies and operators of the German Research Fleet Coordination Centre at Hamburg University developed a completely new alternative plan : The upcoming transfer will be completed out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vessels RV Sonne and RV Maria S. Merian .
As a result of the pandemic-related measures , both ships have just returned to Germany .
Polarstern will meet the two vessels in calm waters off Svalbard , in order to carry out a complete personnel transfer ( ca .
100 people ) , and an exchange of cargo and provisions .
Once the process is complete , Polarstern and her new team will return to the ice and continue their expedition in the Arctic Ocean .
Expedition Leader Prof Markus Rex from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the AWI ’ s Logistics Team , together with our international partners , achieved a true masterstroke in the face of the enormous challenges posed by the coronavirus crisis .
With a host of alternative plans at the ready , the expedition was prepared for virtually every scenario imaginable .
Yet the pandemic forced us to devise a complex alternative scenario for wholly new , unforeseen and unprecedented circumstances .
It was only the team ’ s tremendous commitment and flexibility that allowed us to conduct climate research in the Arctic ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the current conditions .
As a result , in spite of the extremely adverse conditions , the continuation of the expedition has been secured.
” The new staff exchange plan will be accompanied by extensive safety concepts developed in close collaboration with the respective health authorities .
From early May , the participants in the next leg of the expedition living in Germany will enter a monitored quarantine phase , during which they will be regularly tested for the coronavirus .
Due to the delayed exchange , there will only be a total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the course of the expedition , but this will have no effect on its total duration : the planned end date is still 12 October 2020 .
Prof Torsten Kanzow from the AWI , the current chief scientist on board Polarstern , had the following to report : “ Many of our people have families , and are of course doing everything they can to stay in close contact with their loved ones back home via satellite phone and email .
As the expedition leader , I also note the hardships and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and pass them on to the Coordination Office and the AWI .
This has helped us regain a bit of certainty in our planning efforts.
” In addition , on 22 April seven participants , whose personal circumstances made it impossible to stay longer , were flown out with a Twin Otter .
According to Kanzow , he ’ s happy to see that , despite the current challenges and concerns , the participants have continued to carry out their research duties in the ice with great enthusiasm – even though , since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do so in the never-ending sunlight of the Polar Day .
Over the past months , Polarstern has rapidly advanced along her projected drift corridor ; as a result , she is already between the North Pole and Fram Strait , i.e.
, fairly far to the south .
For the upcoming logistical operation , this position is advantageous .
Some instruments on the MOSAiC floe will continue recording autonomously until Polarstern returns , while others will be dismantled .
Depending on how the drift progresses , the Ice Camp may be relocated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibility of tearing down and relocating the camp was always part of the planning scenarios , in the event that the ship drifted faster than anticipated .
This would have only minimal effects on the expedition timeline .
As Markus Rex explains , “ If we drift too far south , we will set up the Ice Camp again farther north , and continue our observations in a region where the Central Arctic is still covered with ice in the summer .
We ’ re thrilled with the tremendous amount of data we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past seven months .
Despite the current adversities , we hope to continue the expedition for the remainder of the year-long cycle , and draw it to a close in October as planned.
” Further information : MOSAiC – Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate In the context of the MOSAiC expedition , experts from 20 countries will research the Arctic for an entire year .
To make this possible , from autumn 2019 to autumn 2020 the German research icebreaker Polarstern will drift through the Arctic Ocean , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being coordinated by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research ( AWI ) .
To ensure that this unparalleled project is a success and yields as much valuable data as possible , more than 80 institutes have pooled their resources in a research consortium .
The expedition budget is ca .
140 million euros .
For news straight from the Arctic , check out the MOSAiC channels on Twitter ( @ MOSAiCArctic ) and Instagram ( @ mosaic_expedition ) using the hashtags # MOSAiCexpedition , # Arctic and # @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expedition , please visit : http : //www.mosaic-expedition.org In addition , you can use the MOSAiC Web App to track Polarstern ’ s drift route and follow developments on site , live : http : //www.follow.mosaic-expedition.org The Alfred Wegener Institute , Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research ( AWI ) conducts research in the Arctic , Antarctic and oceans of the high and mid-latitudes .
It coordinates polar research in Germany and provides major infrastructure to the international scientific community , such as the research icebreaker Polarstern and stations in the Arctic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is one of the 19 research centres of the Helmholtz Association , the largest scientific organisation in Germany .
Addendum , the Expedition can be followed here

Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Thanks to the support of additional German research vessels, the MOSAiC expedition will continue, despite the coronavirus pandemic. The new team will start in May.
Despite the current challenges, the MOSAiC expedition will continue. After many national borders were closed in response to the coronavirus pandemic, one team transfer had to be postponed. But thanks to new alternative plans supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the German Research Foundation and the operators of the German research fleet as well as the dedicated work of the expedition team currently on board, MOSAiC will soon enter its next phase. An interim review of the project shows: the data to be gathered over the next several months will be indispensable for the scientific community.
After successfully completing the first half of its more-than-a-year-long drift through the Arctic Ocean, the international expedition MOSAiC suddenly faced unforeseen challenges, posed by the coronavirus pandemic. The massive restrictions on global travel hindered the third team exchange, which had been planned as an aerial transfer in early April, using the Spitsbergen archipelago (which Norwegian authorities have since placed off limits due to the pandemic) as a base of operations. Since the current situation also means the international icebreakers that were originally meant to resupply the expedition are also prohibited from making any staff transfers, in the span of just a few weeks the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the MOSAiC Coordination Office and the funding bodies and operators of the German Research Fleet Coordination Centre at Hamburg University developed a completely new alternative plan:
The upcoming transfer will be completed out with the aid of the German research vessels RV Sonne and RV Maria S. Merian. As a result of the pandemic-related measures, both ships have just returned to Germany. Polarstern will meet the two vessels in calm waters off Svalbard, in order to carry out a complete personnel transfer (ca. 100 people), and an exchange of cargo and provisions. Once the process is complete, Polarstern and her new team will return to the ice and continue their expedition in the Arctic Ocean.
Expedition Leader Prof Markus Rex from the AWI: “With this alternative plan, the AWI’s Logistics Team, together with our international partners, achieved a true masterstroke in the face of the enormous challenges posed by the coronavirus crisis. With a host of alternative plans at the ready, the expedition was prepared for virtually every scenario imaginable. Yet the pandemic forced us to devise a complex alternative scenario for wholly new, unforeseen and unprecedented circumstances. It was only the team’s tremendous commitment and flexibility that allowed us to conduct climate research in the Arctic ice two months longer than planned, despite the current conditions. As a result, in spite of the extremely adverse conditions, the continuation of the expedition has been secured.”
The new staff exchange plan will be accompanied by extensive safety concepts developed in close collaboration with the respective health authorities. From early May, the participants in the next leg of the expedition living in Germany will enter a monitored quarantine phase, during which they will be regularly tested for the coronavirus. Due to the delayed exchange, there will only be a total of four, not five, transfers in the course of the expedition, but this will have no effect on its total duration: the planned end date is still 12 October 2020.
Prof Torsten Kanzow from the AWI, the current chief scientist on board Polarstern, had the following to report: “Many of our people have families, and are of course doing everything they can to stay in close contact with their loved ones back home via satellite phone and email. As the expedition leader, I also note the hardships and concerns of the people on board, and pass them on to the Coordination Office and the AWI. This has helped us regain a bit of certainty in our planning efforts.” In addition, on 22 April seven participants, whose personal circumstances made it impossible to stay longer, were flown out with a Twin Otter. According to Kanzow, he’s happy to see that, despite the current challenges and concerns, the participants have continued to carry out their research duties in the ice with great enthusiasm – even though, since 31 March, they have had to do so in the never-ending sunlight of the Polar Day.
Over the past months, Polarstern has rapidly advanced along her projected drift corridor; as a result, she is already between the North Pole and Fram Strait, i.e., fairly far to the south. For the upcoming logistical operation, this position is advantageous. Some instruments on the MOSAiC floe will continue recording autonomously until Polarstern returns, while others will be dismantled.
Depending on how the drift progresses, the Ice Camp may be relocated closer to the North Pole. The possibility of tearing down and relocating the camp was always part of the planning scenarios, in the event that the ship drifted faster than anticipated. This would have only minimal effects on the expedition timeline. As Markus Rex explains, “If we drift too far south, we will set up the Ice Camp again farther north, and continue our observations in a region where the Central Arctic is still covered with ice in the summer. We’re thrilled with the tremendous amount of data we’ve been able to gather over the past seven months. Despite the current adversities, we hope to continue the expedition for the remainder of the year-long cycle, and draw it to a close in October as planned.”
###
Further information: MOSAiC – Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate
In the context of the MOSAiC expedition, experts from 20 countries will research the Arctic for an entire year. To make this possible, from autumn 2019 to autumn 2020 the German research icebreaker Polarstern will drift through the Arctic Ocean, trapped in the ice. MOSAiC is being coordinated by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). To ensure that this unparalleled project is a success and yields as much valuable data as possible, more than 80 institutes have pooled their resources in a research consortium. The expedition budget is ca. 140 million euros.
For news straight from the Arctic, check out the MOSAiC channels on Twitter (@MOSAiCArctic) and Instagram (@mosaic_expedition) using the hashtags #MOSAiCexpedition, #Arctic and #icedrift.
For further information on the expedition, please visit: http://www.mosaic-expedition.org
In addition, you can use the MOSAiC Web App to track Polarstern’s drift route and follow developments on site, live: http://www.follow.mosaic-expedition.org
The Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) conducts research in the Arctic, Antarctic and oceans of the high and mid-latitudes. It coordinates polar research in Germany and provides major infrastructure to the international scientific community, such as the research icebreaker Polarstern and stations in the Arctic and Antarctica. The Alfred Wegener Institute is one of the 19 research centres of the Helmholtz Association, the largest scientific organisation in Germany.
From EurekAlert!
Addendum, the Expedition can be followed here
HT/ Martin C