iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-04--Forecasting Bird Migration with Weather Radar and Models

We are now in the midst of the big bird migration time of the year and weather radar can help documents the huge flux of birds overhead .
But even more fascinating , we can skillfully predict bird migration using numerical weather prediction .
One of my favorite sites to check out bird migration is BirdCast , run by the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology .
I really appreciate this group and as an undergrad at Cornell I frequently visited their Sapsucker Woods Wildlife Sanctuary .
One of the wonderful things they have on their website is real-time bird migration maps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radar ( see below ) .
Turns out that weather radar is a very effective tool for tracking birds , particularly when there is not much precipitation ( when the National Weather Radars are in clear air mode ) .
The map below provides an example : a real-time snapshot of bird migration at 12:50 AM PDT early this ( Saturday ) morning .
The colors shows the intensity of bird migration and the orange arrows provide the direction of migration ( which can be determined from the Doppler weather radar signal !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ are moving northward and the Pacific Northwest is an active migration route .
The largest migration is from Texas to Wisconsin .
By the way , the units of this map is THOUSANDS of bird per km line per hour .
That is a lot of birds !
To confirm the bird invasion , here is the composite radar image the night before ( 1:38 AM on May 1st ) .
Wow .
There was very little precipitation that night , so virtually all of this is birds .
Keep in mind that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( such as east of the Cascade crest ) .
You note lack of echos offshore…our feathered friends prefer to stay over land !
Our bird friends prefer to fly at night , and the Cornell migration graphic at 9:40 PM Eastern Time yesterday shows this , with the red line indicating the location of sunset at that time .
Very few birds while the sun is up ( west of the line ) , lots of birds to the east of the sunset line .
But this site has even more !
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Using decades of radar information to provide migration ground truth , they correlated bird migration activity with forecat weather parameters ( from NWS prediction models ) , day of year , and much more , using a machine learning algorithm .
This approach is based on the work of Van Doren and Horton ( Science Magazine , 2018 ) .
To illustrate , here is the migration prediction for tonight ( Saturday-Sunday ) , which includes the amount of forecast precipitation as well .
Less birds tonight..and that has to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bird forecast research noted above ( Van Doren and Horton ) found the bird migration correlates best with temperature ( more migration with warmer temperatures ) , with precipitation also discouraging our feathered friends .
The strong front moving through today will result in both cooler temperatures and showers .
Thus , our migrating bird visitors will take a well deserved rest this evening .
Finally , I should mention that there is all kinds of fascinating information in that Van Doren an Horton papers , such as the annual variation in bird @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weather radar data ( see below ) .
Peak migration is in early-May , with a huge ramp-up in April…so we are very near the peak now .
Thus , watching the radar now is of particular interest for all bird lovers .
So during the next mild night this month , look up and imagine the thousands of birds that are moving northward above your head .
Kind of reassuring during these difficult times .

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog
We are now in the midst of the big bird migration time of the year and weather radar can help documents the huge flux of birds overhead.
But even more fascinating, we can skillfully predict bird migration using numerical weather prediction.
One of my favorite sites to check out bird migration is BirdCast, run by the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology. I really appreciate this group and as an undergrad at Cornell I frequently visited their Sapsucker Woods Wildlife Sanctuary.
One of the wonderful things they have on their website is real-time bird migration maps based on the clever use of weather radar (see below). Turns out that weather radar is a very effective tool for tracking birds, particularly when there is not much precipitation (when the National Weather Radars are in clear air mode).
The map below provides an example: a real-time snapshot of bird migration at 12:50 AM PDT early this (Saturday) morning. The colors shows the intensity of bird migration and the orange arrows provide the direction of migration (which can be determined from the Doppler weather radar signal!). Not surprisingly, most birds are moving northward and the Pacific Northwest is an active migration route. The largest migration is from Texas to Wisconsin. By the way, the units of this map is THOUSANDS of bird per km line per hour. That is a lot of birds!
To confirm the bird invasion, here is the composite radar image the night before (1:38 AM on May 1st). Wow. There was very little precipitation that night, so virtually all of this is birds. Keep in mind that there are major gaps in weather coverage (such as east of the Cascade crest). You note lack of echos offshore…our feathered friends prefer to stay over land!
Our bird friends prefer to fly at night, and the Cornell migration graphic at 9:40 PM Eastern Time yesterday shows this, with the red line indicating the location of sunset at that time. Very few birds while the sun is up (west of the line), lots of birds to the east of the sunset line.
But this site has even more! It include forecasts of bird migration activity. Using decades of radar information to provide migration ground truth, they correlated bird migration activity with forecat weather parameters (from NWS prediction models), day of year, and much more, using a machine learning algorithm. This approach is based on the work of Van Doren and Horton (Science Magazine, 2018) . To illustrate, here is the migration prediction for tonight (Saturday-Sunday), which includes the amount of forecast precipitation as well.
Less birds tonight..and that has to do with the change in the weather. This bird forecast research noted above (Van Doren and Horton) found the bird migration correlates best with temperature (more migration with warmer temperatures), with precipitation also discouraging our feathered friends. The strong front moving through today will result in both cooler temperatures and showers. Thus, our migrating bird visitors will take a well deserved rest this evening.
Finally, I should mention that there is all kinds of fascinating information in that Van Doren an Horton papers, such as the annual variation in bird migration over the U.S. based on the weather radar data (see below). Peak migration is in early-May, with a huge ramp-up in April…so we are very near the peak now. Thus, watching the radar now is of particular interest for all bird lovers.
So during the next mild night this month, look up and imagine the thousands of birds that are moving northward above your head. Kind of reassuring during these difficult times.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Michael Moore on Biomass

Michael Moore on Biomass

Michael Moore ’ s new film has been widely discussed , and I have not pushed it before as it is an hour and a half long .
However , with Drax in mind , I would suggest you watch the segment on biomass , beginning at 52 minutes in .
It runs for about 20 minutes , but it is also worth carrying on to the 1.26 mark , as there is also a lot of relevant stuff on how environmentalists , such as the Sierra Club and Bill McKibben have got into bed with billionaires and bankers .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s biggest holding , for instance , is in Viva , the world ’ s largest consumer of forests , to be incinerated in green energy biomass plants .
Some of the things shown in the film might note relate to Drax specifically , but they are symptomatic of the industry worldwide .
I ’ ll leave you with this graph , showing how renewable energy is actually dominated by biomass .
BTW – if you want a good laugh , FF to 1.27 , for the Earth Day concert !
via @ @ @ @ @ @ @

By Paul Homewood
Michael Moore’s new film has been widely discussed, and I have not pushed it before as it is an hour and a half long.
However, with Drax in mind, I would suggest you watch the segment on biomass, beginning at 52 minutes in. It runs for about 20 minutes, but it is also worth carrying on to the 1.26 mark, as there is also a lot of relevant stuff on how environmentalists, such as the Sierra Club and Bill McKibben have got into bed with billionaires and bankers. The Sierra Club’s green fund’s biggest holding, for instance, is in Viva, the world’s largest consumer of forests, to be incinerated in green energy biomass plants.
Some of the things shown in the film might note relate to Drax specifically, but they are symptomatic of the industry worldwide.
I’ll leave you with this graph, showing how renewable energy is actually dominated by biomass.
BTW – if you want a good laugh, FF to 1.27, for the Earth Day concert!
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May 5, 2020 at 06:03AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--It’s No Joke: Australia’s Electricity Supply Now Depends On Wind & Cloud Forecasts

If you ’ re looking for the reason why wind power has never worked and never will ?
Here it @ @ @ @ @ If you ’ re looking to wreck a grid and send power prices into orbit @ @ @ @ @ hopes to mother nature ’ s whims .
South Australia did ; it suffers the @ @ @ @ @ power prices and became the butt of international jokes for a series of weather-related mass @ @ @ @ @ example ?
Take a scan of what ’ s depicted above .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Australia ’ s wind power fleet during April – courtesy of Aneroid Energy Spread from @ @ @ @ @ the ranges of NSW , all over Victoria , Northern Tasmania and across South Australia @ @ @ @ @ routinely delivers just a trickle of that .
Collapses of over 3,000 MW or more @ @ @ @ @ of a couple of hours are routine , as are rapid surges of equal magnitude…

STOP THESE THINGS
If you’re looking for the reason why wind power has never worked and never will? Here it is: THE WEATHER.
If you’re looking to wreck a grid and send power prices into orbit, then pin your power hopes to mother nature’s whims. South Australia did; it suffers the world’s highest retail power prices and became the butt of international jokes for a series of weather-related mass blackouts.
Looking for an example? Take a scan of what’s depicted above.
That’s the ‘performance’ of Australia’s wind power fleet during April – courtesy of Aneroid Energy
Spread from Far North Queensland, across the ranges of NSW, all over Victoria, Northern Tasmania and across South Australia its 6,960 MW of capacity routinely delivers just a trickle of that.
Collapses of over 3,000 MW or more that occur over the space of a couple of hours are routine, as are rapid surges of equal magnitude…


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Rupert Darwall: Net Zero Mania Threatens To Derail Our Lockdown Recovery

Boris Johnson has only one chance to ensure rapid and sustained economic recovery from the lockdown – and that is to scrap every obstacle that stands in the way of economic growth , the biggest of all being the net zero climate noose .
When economies emerge from the pandemic , aggressive climate policies should be the priority , according to Dominic Raab , the foreign secretary and Boris Johnson ’ s deputy .
Sounding like a modern day King Canute , he has urged governments to turn the tide on climate change .
“ There ’ s no choice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy , ” Mr. Raab claims .
“ That ’ s a myth the UK has helped to shatter over the past decade.
” In fact , the last decade saw Britain rack up its worst productivity performance since the Industrial Revolution .
Ministers don ’ t tell us how we cut them by exporting our industrial base – emissions relating to imports from China are 276pc higher compared to 1997 .
The Government can forget about re-shoring vulnerable supply chains as it would push up our emissions .
France ’ s Emmanuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good deal more honest , having described the choice on climate as profound and brutal .
Decarbonising inflicts costs on the poorest in society and it shrinks blue-collar job opportunities , worsening the North South regional divide .
Britain legislated its commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero after a mere ninety-minute debate in the House of Commons last June .
Unlike the original 2008 Climate Change Act , the Government did not provide an economic impact assessment of net net and its analysis of the costs , of what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an estimate of the potential climate benefits to Britain .
[ … ] The Prime Minister has only one chance to ensure rapid and sustained economic recovery from the lockdown – and that is to scrap every obstacle that stands in the way of economic growth , the biggest of all being the net zero climate noose .
If he fails , he and his government will be toast , his political career be ruined and the Conservatives will be remembered for this policy-made economic disaster .
Keeping Boris ’ s commitment to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rupert Darwall is a Senior Fellow of the RealClear Foundation and author of The Climate Noose published by the GWPF The post Rupert Darwall : Net Zero Mania Threatens To Derail Our Lockdown Recovery appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Boris Johnson has only one chance to ensure rapid and sustained economic recovery from the lockdown – and that is to scrap every obstacle that stands in the way of economic growth, the biggest of all being the net zero climate noose.
When economies emerge from the pandemic, aggressive climate policies should be the priority, according to Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary and Boris Johnson’s deputy. Sounding like a modern day King Canute, he has urged governments to turn the tide on climate change. “There’s no choice between cutting our emissions and growing our economy,” Mr. Raab claims. “That’s a myth the UK has helped to shatter over the past decade.”
In fact, the last decade saw Britain rack up its worst productivity performance since the Industrial Revolution. Ministers don’t tell us how we cut them by exporting our industrial base – emissions relating to imports from China are 276pc higher compared to 1997. The Government can forget about re-shoring vulnerable supply chains as it would push up our emissions.
France’s Emmanuel Macron, by contrast, is a good deal more honest, having described the choice on climate as profound and brutal. Decarbonising inflicts costs on the poorest in society and it shrinks blue-collar job opportunities, worsening the North South regional divide.
Britain legislated its commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero after a mere ninety-minute debate in the House of Commons last June. Unlike the original 2008 Climate Change Act, the Government did not provide an economic impact assessment of net net and its analysis of the costs, of what it would to do the economy and an estimate of the potential climate benefits to Britain. […]
The Prime Minister has only one chance to ensure rapid and sustained economic recovery from the lockdown – and that is to scrap every obstacle that stands in the way of economic growth, the biggest of all being the net zero climate noose. If he fails, he and his government will be toast, his political career be ruined and the Conservatives will be remembered for this policy-made economic disaster. Keeping Boris’s commitment to net zero won’t be pretty.
Rupert Darwall is a Senior Fellow of the RealClear Foundation and author of The Climate Noose published by the GWPF
The post Rupert Darwall: Net Zero Mania Threatens To Derail Our Lockdown Recovery appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 5, 2020 at 04:52AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Who knew? Most people in lockdown like their own families

It turns out being locked up in our own homes with our own families is not the end of the world Some said the lockdowns would cause skyrocking divorces : More couples will SPLIT and divorce rates will skyrocket as strict social distancing rules force partners to spend more time together Instead , people like spending time with their partners and kids : Lockdown is making us love our families MORE : Britons are less likely to split up from partners , are eating and sleeping more… Of all those in live-in relationships , 37 per cent say the experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more time with their partner , as opposed to the ten per cent who are keen to broaden their horizons again .
A total of 26 per cent say their relationship has improved , while 13 per cent say it has worsened .
Only nine per cent of people think they are now more likely to split up as a result of lockdown , compared to 27 per cent who think it is less likely .
Respondents have , on the whole , also enjoyed being cooped up with their children , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ … ]

It turns out being locked up in our own homes with our own families is not the end of the world
Some said the lockdowns would cause skyrocking divorces:
More couples will SPLIT and divorce rates will skyrocket as strict social distancing rules force partners to spend more time together
Instead, people like spending time with their partners and kids:
Lockdown is making us love our families MORE: Britons are less likely to split up from partners, are eating and sleeping more…
Of all those in live-in relationships, 37 per cent say the experience has led to them wanting to spend more time with their partner, as opposed to the ten per cent who are keen to broaden their horizons again.
A total of 26 per cent say their relationship has improved, while 13 per cent say it has worsened.
Only nine per cent of people think they are now more likely to split up as a result of lockdown, compared to 27 per cent who think it is less likely.
Respondents have, on the whole, also enjoyed being cooped up with their children, with 45 per cent saying it had left […]
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May 5, 2020 at 04:35AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--First results from NASA’s ICESat-2 mission map 16 years of melting ice sheets

Using the most advanced Earth-observing laser instrument NASA has ever flown in space , a team of scientists led by the University of Washington has made precise measurements of how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have changed over 16 years .
In a new study published in the journal Science on April 30 , scientists found the net loss of ice from Antarctica , along with Greenland ’ s shrinking ice sheet , has been responsible for 0.55 inches ( 14 millimeters ) of sea level rise to the global ocean since 2003 .
In Antarctica , sea level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the floating ice shelves melting in a warming ocean .
The ice shelves help hold back the flow of land-based ice into the ocean .
The findings come from the Ice , Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 ( ICESat-2 ) , which was launched into orbit in fall 2018 and began taking detailed global elevation measurements , including over Earth ’ s frozen regions .
By comparing the new data with measurements taken by the original ICESat from 2003 to 2009 , researchers have generated a comprehensive portrait of the complexities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the future of Greenland and Antarctica .
“ If you watch a glacier or ice sheet for a month , or a year , you ’ re not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it , ” said lead author Benjamin Smith , a glaciologist at the University of Washington .
“ We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 and can be much more confident that the changes we ’ re seeing in the ice have to do with the long-term changes in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remarkable tool for making these measurements .
We ’ re seeing high-quality measurements that carpet both ice sheets , which let us make a detailed and precise comparison with the ICESat data.
” Previous studies of ice loss or gain often analyze data from multiple satellites and airborne missions .
The new study takes a single type of measurement – height as measured by an instrument that bounces laser pulses off the ice surface – providing the most detailed and accurate picture of ice sheet change to date .
The researchers took tracks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracks of ICESat-2 measurements from 2019 .
Where the two data sets intersected – tens of millions of sites – they ran the data through computer programs that accounted for the snow density and other factors , and then calculated the mass of ice lost or gained .
“ The new analysis reveals the ice sheets ’ response to changes in climate with unprecedented detail , revealing clues as to why and how the ice sheets are reacting the way they are ” , said co-author Alex Gardner , a glaciologist at NASA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , California .
The study found that Greenland ’ s ice sheet lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice per year , and Antarctica ’ s ice sheet lost an average of 118 gigatons of ice per year .
One gigaton of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools .
Of the sea level rise that resulted from ice sheet meltwater and iceberg calving , about two-thirds of it came Greenland , the other third from Antarctica , Smith and his colleagues found .
“ It was amazing to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right out of the gate , ” said co-author Tom Neumann at NASA ’ s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt , Maryland .
“ These first results looking at land ice confirm the consensus from other research groups , but they also let us look at the details of change in individual glaciers and ice shelves at the same time.
” In Greenland , there was a significant amount of thinning of coastal glaciers , Smith said .
The Kangerlussuaq and Jakobshavn glaciers , for example , have lost 14 to 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of elevation per year .
Warmer summer temperatures have melted ice from the surface of the glaciers and ice sheets , and in some places warmer ocean water erodes away the ice at their fronts .
In Antarctica , the dense tracks of ICESat-2 measurements showed that the ice sheet is getting thicker in parts of the continent ’ s interior , likely as a result of increased snowfall , Smith said .
But the loss of ice from the continent ’ s margins , especially in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interior .
In those places , the ocean is also likely to blame .
“ In West Antarctica , we ’ re seeing a lot of glaciers thinning very rapidly , ” Smith said .
“ There are ice shelves at the downstream end of those glaciers , floating on water .
And those ice shelves are thinning , letting more ice flow out into the ocean as the warmer water erodes the ice.
” These ice shelves , which rise and fall with the tides , can be difficult to measure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glaciologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California , San Diego .
Some of them have rough surfaces , with crevasses and ridges , but the precision and high resolution of ICESat-2 allows researchers to measure overall changes , without worrying about these features skewing the results .
This is one of the first times that researchers have measured loss of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica simultaneously with loss of the continent ’ s ice sheet .
Ice that melts from ice shelves doesn ’ t raise sea levels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – just like an ice cube in a full cup of water doesn ’ t overflow the glass .
But the ice shelves do provide stability for the glaciers and ice sheets behind them .
“ It ’ s like an architectural buttress that holds up a cathedral , ” Fricker said .
“ The ice shelves hold the ice sheet up .
If you take away the ice shelves , or even if you thin them , you ’ re reducing that buttressing force , so the grounded ice can flow faster.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ West Antarctica , where many of the continent ’ s fastest-moving glaciers are located , are losing mass .
Patterns of thinning show that Thwaites and Crosson ice shelves have thinned the most , an average of about five meters ( 16 feet ) and three meters ( 10 feet ) of ice per year , respectively .
The study was funded by NASA .
Other co-authors are Johan Nilsson and Fernando Paolo at NASA ’ s Jet Propulsion Laboratory ; Brooke Medley , Thorsten Markus and H. Jay Zwally at NASA ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Holschuh at Amherst College ; Susheel Adusumilli at the University of California , San Diego ; Kelly Brunt at the University of Maryland ; Bea Csatho at the University of Buffalo ; Kaitlin Harbeck at KBR ; and Matthew Siegfried at the Colorado School of Mines .

University of Washington
IMAGE: This shows the amount of ice gained or lost by Antarctica between 2003 and 2019. Dark reds and purples show large average rates of ice loss near the coasts, while… view more Credit: Smith et al./Science
Using the most advanced Earth-observing laser instrument NASA has ever flown in space, a team of scientists led by the University of Washington has made precise measurements of how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have changed over 16 years.
In a new study published in the journal Science on April 30, scientists found the net loss of ice from Antarctica, along with Greenland’s shrinking ice sheet, has been responsible for 0.55 inches (14 millimeters) of sea level rise to the global ocean since 2003. In Antarctica, sea level rise is being driven by the loss of the floating ice shelves melting in a warming ocean. The ice shelves help hold back the flow of land-based ice into the ocean.
The findings come from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2), which was launched into orbit in fall 2018 and began taking detailed global elevation measurements, including over Earth’s frozen regions. By comparing the new data with measurements taken by the original ICESat from 2003 to 2009, researchers have generated a comprehensive portrait of the complexities of ice sheet change – and insights into the future of Greenland and Antarctica.
“If you watch a glacier or ice sheet for a month, or a year, you’re not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it,” said lead author Benjamin Smith, a glaciologist at the University of Washington. “We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 and can be much more confident that the changes we’re seeing in the ice have to do with the long-term changes in the climate. And ICESat-2 is a really remarkable tool for making these measurements. We’re seeing high-quality measurements that carpet both ice sheets, which let us make a detailed and precise comparison with the ICESat data.”
Previous studies of ice loss or gain often analyze data from multiple satellites and airborne missions. The new study takes a single type of measurement – height as measured by an instrument that bounces laser pulses off the ice surface – providing the most detailed and accurate picture of ice sheet change to date.
The researchers took tracks of ICESat measurements and overlaid the denser tracks of ICESat-2 measurements from 2019. Where the two data sets intersected – tens of millions of sites – they ran the data through computer programs that accounted for the snow density and other factors, and then calculated the mass of ice lost or gained.
“The new analysis reveals the ice sheets’ response to changes in climate with unprecedented detail, revealing clues as to why and how the ice sheets are reacting the way they are”, said co-author Alex Gardner, a glaciologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
The study found that Greenland’s ice sheet lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice per year, and Antarctica’s ice sheet lost an average of 118 gigatons of ice per year. One gigaton of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
Of the sea level rise that resulted from ice sheet meltwater and iceberg calving, about two-thirds of it came Greenland, the other third from Antarctica, Smith and his colleagues found.
“It was amazing to see how good the ICESat-2 data looked, right out of the gate,” said co-author Tom Neumann at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “These first results looking at land ice confirm the consensus from other research groups, but they also let us look at the details of change in individual glaciers and ice shelves at the same time.”
In Greenland, there was a significant amount of thinning of coastal glaciers, Smith said. The Kangerlussuaq and Jakobshavn glaciers, for example, have lost 14 to 20 feet (4 to 6 meters) of elevation per year. Warmer summer temperatures have melted ice from the surface of the glaciers and ice sheets, and in some places warmer ocean water erodes away the ice at their fronts.
In Antarctica, the dense tracks of ICESat-2 measurements showed that the ice sheet is getting thicker in parts of the continent’s interior, likely as a result of increased snowfall, Smith said. But the loss of ice from the continent’s margins, especially in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, far outweighs any gains in the interior. In those places, the ocean is also likely to blame.
“In West Antarctica, we’re seeing a lot of glaciers thinning very rapidly,” Smith said. “There are ice shelves at the downstream end of those glaciers, floating on water. And those ice shelves are thinning, letting more ice flow out into the ocean as the warmer water erodes the ice.”
These ice shelves, which rise and fall with the tides, can be difficult to measure, said co-author Helen Amanda Fricker, a glaciologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. Some of them have rough surfaces, with crevasses and ridges, but the precision and high resolution of ICESat-2 allows researchers to measure overall changes, without worrying about these features skewing the results.
This is one of the first times that researchers have measured loss of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica simultaneously with loss of the continent’s ice sheet.
Ice that melts from ice shelves doesn’t raise sea levels, since it’s already floating – just like an ice cube in a full cup of water doesn’t overflow the glass. But the ice shelves do provide stability for the glaciers and ice sheets behind them.
“It’s like an architectural buttress that holds up a cathedral,” Fricker said. “The ice shelves hold the ice sheet up. If you take away the ice shelves, or even if you thin them, you’re reducing that buttressing force, so the grounded ice can flow faster.”
The researchers found ice shelves in West Antarctica, where many of the continent’s fastest-moving glaciers are located, are losing mass. Patterns of thinning show that Thwaites and Crosson ice shelves have thinned the most, an average of about five meters (16 feet) and three meters (10 feet) of ice per year, respectively.
###
The study was funded by NASA. Other co-authors are Johan Nilsson and Fernando Paolo at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Brooke Medley, Thorsten Markus and H. Jay Zwally at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center; Nicholas Holschuh at Amherst College; Susheel Adusumilli at the University of California, San Diego; Kelly Brunt at the University of Maryland; Bea Csatho at the University of Buffalo; Kaitlin Harbeck at KBR; and Matthew Siegfried at the Colorado School of Mines.
From EurekAlert!


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Hundreds of towering hydrothermal chimneys discovered on seafloor off Washington

How many more such discoveries could be waiting to be made ?
The report says ‘ Geologic evidence…suggests that hydrothermal activity is part of a cycle that reshapes the seafloor over many thousands of years ’ .
An autonomous diving robot captured the vents in unprecedented detail , reports Live Science .
In the dark ocean depths off the coast of the Pacific Northwest , a magical fairyland of towering spires and hydrothermal chimneys sprout from the seafloor , a stunning new underwater map reveals .
The field of hydrothermal chimneys stretches along the ocean bottom on the Juan de @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington state , in an area known as the Endeavor Segment .
Research on the Endeavor vents began in the 1980s , and scientists had previously identified 47 chimneys in five major vent fields .
But recent expeditions , using an autonomous underwater vehicle operated by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute ( MBARI ) revealed more than 500 chimneys in a zone about 9 miles ( 14 kilometers ) long and 1 mile ( 2 km ) wide .
Deep-sea chimneys form around hydrothermal vents from a buildup of minerals that flow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as hot as 750 degrees Fahrenheit ( 400 degrees Celsius ) .
As hot liquid meets cold seawater , minerals precipitate and settle around the vent , collecting to form towers that can reach impressive heights .
At the Endeavor Segment , “ abundant and vigorous ” hydrothermal activity has transformed the seafloor for approximately 2,300 years , and periods of intense seismic vibration shake things up even more , according to a new study on the MBARI expedition .
Chimneys that climb from Endeavor are among the tallest in any mid-ocean ridge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top-heavy tower known affectionately as “ Godzilla , ” extended 150 feet ( 45 meters ) from the seafloor , but it crumbled in 1995 .

How many more such discoveries could be waiting to be made? The report says ‘Geologic evidence…suggests that hydrothermal activity is part of a cycle that reshapes the seafloor over many thousands of years’.
An autonomous diving robot captured the vents in unprecedented detail, reports Live Science.
In the dark ocean depths off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, a magical fairyland of towering spires and hydrothermal chimneys sprout from the seafloor, a stunning new underwater map reveals.
These towers belch superheated liquid warmed by magma deep inside Earth.
The field of hydrothermal chimneys stretches along the ocean bottom on the Juan de Fuca Ridge to the northwest of coastal Washington state, in an area known as the Endeavor Segment.
Research on the Endeavor vents began in the 1980s, and scientists had previously identified 47 chimneys in five major vent fields.
But recent expeditions, using an autonomous underwater vehicle operated by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) revealed more than 500 chimneys in a zone about 9 miles (14 kilometers) long and 1 mile (2 km) wide.
Deep-sea chimneys form around hydrothermal vents from a buildup of minerals that flow to the surface in heated liquid — as hot as 750 degrees Fahrenheit (400 degrees Celsius). As hot liquid meets cold seawater, minerals precipitate and settle around the vent, collecting to form towers that can reach impressive heights.
At the Endeavor Segment, “abundant and vigorous” hydrothermal activity has transformed the seafloor for approximately 2,300 years, and periods of intense seismic vibration shake things up even more, according to a new study on the MBARI expedition.
Chimneys that climb from Endeavor are among the tallest in any mid-ocean ridge; the biggest ever documented, a top-heavy tower known affectionately as “Godzilla,” extended 150 feet (45 meters) from the seafloor, but it crumbled in 1995.
Continued here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
https://ift.tt/2zSVyi6
May 5, 2020 at 03:48AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--SCOTTISH STUDENTS TO BE SUBJECTED TO MANDATORY CLIMATE CHANGE INDOCTRINATION

According to this article the indoctrination is to be given to all future leaders in politics and industry .
I @ @ @ @ @ any dissenters – presumably they will be banished from any position of influence or responsibility @

According to this article the indoctrination is to be given to all future leaders in politics and industry. I wonder what will happen to any dissenters – presumably they will be banished from any position of influence or responsibility.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Linowes on a 13th Extension of the Wind PTC (crony coronas exposed)

The Texas Business Coalition recently published an interview with the intrepid critic of government-enabled industrial wind power , Lisa Linowes .
The TBC ’ s article , “ Wind Energy Researcher : Don ’ t Extend Deadline for Wind Projects ” ( April 26 .
2020 ) , explains what Big Wind is after now under the guise of Pandemic policy .
The article follows in its entirety .
Six U.S. senators , citing the COVID-19 pandemic , have asked for “ safe harbor ” deadline extensions to assist renewable energy developers to meet construction deadlines and qualify for tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and spokesperson for The WindAction Group , said that is a lot of hot air .
“ Big wind does not have a COVID problem .
It has a mismanagement problem , ” Linowes told Texas Business Coalition .
“ Before the March 14 COVID shutdown , the industry was already reporting that 9,000 megawatts of 2016 safe-harbored turbines were expected to spill into 2021 .
This 9,000 megawatt spillover has nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with mismanaging delivery and construction timelines .
Developers and ( Iowa Sen. Charles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the price tag of their mismanagement .
Such behavior should not be rewarded at our expense.
” The WindAction Group is , according to its website , “ a national advocacy focused on the impact/benefits analysis and policy issues associated with industrial wind energy development.
” The six , Grassley ( R-Iowa ) , Sen. John Thune ( R-SD ) , Sen. Lisa Murkowski ( R-AK ) , Sen. Ron Wyden ( D-OR ) , Sen. Maria Cantwell ( D-WA ) , and Joe Manchin III ( D-WV ) signed an April 23 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to extend the deadline .
Either the treasury secretary or Congress can grant an extension .
“ As the ongoing COVID-19 crisis continues to claim lives and cause economic disruption and uncertainty , it is vital that the government take whatever reasonable steps possible to allay unforeseen burdens on American families and businesses , ” the letter states .
“ In that spirit , we urge you to extend the continuity safe harbor , provided under existing Treasury Department guidance , for both the production tax credit ( PTC ) and energy investment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four years to five years for projects that started construction in 2016 or 2017 .
This modest adjustment to the PTC and ITC guidance would help preserve tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in investments and provide some certainty in these challenging times.
” Linowes said those claims are specious .
“ This push by Grassley , Thune and others is an offensive act that should be renounced by the administration , ” she said .
“ Here ’ s what ’ s going on : When the phase-down was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ‘ start construction ’ by a date certain in order to secure the PTC .
Under the law , facilities that began construction before Jan. 1 , 2017 , are eligible to receive 100 percent of the PTC .
“ Projects that start construction in 2017 , 2018 and 2019 could receive 80 percent , 60 percent , and 40 percent of the wind PTC , respectively , after which the subsidy is eliminated .
Since the credit is earned during the first 10 years of project life , costs accumulate to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Linowes said developers seeking full-PTC benefits had from 2016 until the end of 2020 , to reach commercial operation .
If they miss the 2020 deadline , they can still earn the full PTC by demonstrating to the IRS a continuous progress towards meeting the deadline .
Projects started in 2017 have until the end of 2021 to earn 80 % PTC , and so on .
“ Grassley is promoting American Wind Energy Association ’ s bogus claim that COVID slowed the industry causing projects to delay into 2021 , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the IRS to extend the four-year window by another year to allow MWs that started construction in 2016 to spill into 2021 and still earn 100 % PTC.
” Linowes said this is a “ self-inflicted problem ” that quickly spiraled out of control .
“ Big Wind developers are looking back at the stockpile of safe-harbored turbines they knew would likely miss the 2020 deadline and they ’ re now hoping all of these turbines will qualify for the 100 % PTC , ” she said .
“ A one-year extension to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The public is being lied to about the issue .
This is another massive cash grab by the wind industry .
If you have any doubts see what the largest US wind developer reported this week.
” Linowes said while wind advocates claim oil , gas and nuclear power are heavily subsidized , the wind protection tax credit now represents the most expensive government expenditure ( tax credits ) in the energy sector , according to Treasury numbers .
“ The wind PTC together with the energy investment tax credit ( ITC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all other energy-related credits and will reach over $ 9 billion in 2021 alone and over $ 60 billion cumulatively through to 2029 , ” she said .
“ Any further extensions will increase this cost to taxpayers.
” This begs the question : Is wind energy affordable ?
“ If by ‘ affordable ’ you mean competitive or cheaper than other sources of generation ( gas , nuclear ) I would say no , it is not affordable , ” Linowes said .
“ For nearly a decade , the wind industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ move off the federal PTC and grow on its own without public assistance .
The phase-down was intended to give the industry a gradual transition off subsidies and on to traditional sources of construction financing .
But this did not happen.
” “ Over the last five years since the phase-down was enacted , the industry spent its time trying to get as many projects permitted and built as possible , ” she said .
“ The focus was on metal in the ground .
Today the PTC represents between 50-65 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little chance the industry will ever be able to make up the 50+ % loss should the PTC finally end.
” However , there are exceptions , especially in some parts of the country where the wind resource is readily available and the cost of construction is low .
Wind projects may be more competitive with fossil generation even without the PTC , but these areas are rare , Linowes said .
“ But it is important to keep in mind that the subsidies are paid OUTSIDE of the energy market , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , while the wind guys can sell their energy into the market at competitive energy prices and appear to be low cost , they are receiving a very large stream of revenue outside of that market that is allowing them to under-price their energy .
Limowes said while wind continues to struggle , there are affordable options .
What is the best option at a time when millions of people are suddenly unemployed or dealing with reduced incomes ?
“ I ’ d have to say natural gas , ” she said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiencing the longest period of low gas prices in our history .
”

Big wind does not have a COVID problem. It has a mismanagement problem. [Chuck] Grassley is promoting the American Wind Energy Association’s bogus claim that COVID slowed the industry causing projects to delay into 2021. He is now asking the IRS to extend the four-year window by another year to allow MWs that started construction in 2016 to spill into 2021 and still earn 100% PTC. – Lisa Linowes (below)
The Texas Business Coalition recently published an interview with the intrepid critic of government-enabled industrial wind power, Lisa Linowes. The TBC’s article, “Wind Energy Researcher: Don’t Extend Deadline for Wind Projects” (April 26. 2020), explains what Big Wind is after now under the guise of Pandemic policy.
The article follows in its entirety.
Six U.S. senators, citing the COVID-19 pandemic, have asked for “safe harbor” deadline extensions to assist renewable energy developers to meet construction deadlines and qualify for tax credits. Lisa Linowes, executive director and spokesperson for The WindAction Group, said that is a lot of hot air.
“Big wind does not have a COVID problem. It has a mismanagement problem,” Linowes told Texas Business Coalition. “Before the March 14 COVID shutdown, the industry was already reporting that 9,000 megawatts of 2016 safe-harbored turbines were expected to spill into 2021. This 9,000 megawatt spillover has nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with mismanaging delivery and construction timelines. Developers and (Iowa Sen. Charles) Grassley are shamelessly demanding taxpayers assume the price tag of their mismanagement. Such behavior should not be rewarded at our expense.”
The WindAction Group is, according to its website, “a national advocacy focused on the impact/benefits analysis and policy issues associated with industrial wind energy development.”
The six, Grassley (R-Iowa), Sen. John Thune (R-SD), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), and Joe Manchin III (D-WV) signed an April 23 letter asking Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin to extend the deadline. Either the treasury secretary or Congress can grant an extension.
“As the ongoing COVID-19 crisis continues to claim lives and cause economic disruption and uncertainty, it is vital that the government take whatever reasonable steps possible to allay unforeseen burdens on American families and businesses,” the letter states. “In that spirit, we urge you to extend the continuity safe harbor, provided under existing Treasury Department guidance, for both the production tax credit (PTC) and energy investment tax credit (ITC), from four years to five years for projects that started construction in 2016 or 2017. This modest adjustment to the PTC and ITC guidance would help preserve tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in investments and provide some certainty in these challenging times.”
Linowes said those claims are specious.
“This push by Grassley, Thune and others is an offensive act that should be renounced by the administration,” she said. “Here’s what’s going on: When the phase-down was enacted, Congress said that projects had to ‘start construction’ by a date certain in order to secure the PTC. Under the law, facilities that began construction before Jan. 1, 2017, are eligible to receive 100 percent of the PTC.
“Projects that start construction in 2017, 2018 and 2019 could receive 80 percent, 60 percent, and 40 percent of the wind PTC, respectively, after which the subsidy is eliminated. Since the credit is earned during the first 10 years of project life, costs accumulate to taxpayers well beyond the expiration date.”
Linowes said developers seeking full-PTC benefits had from 2016 until the end of 2020, to reach commercial operation. If they miss the 2020 deadline, they can still earn the full PTC by demonstrating to the IRS a continuous progress towards meeting the deadline.
Projects started in 2017 have until the end of 2021 to earn 80% PTC, and so on.
“Grassley is promoting American Wind Energy Association’s bogus claim that COVID slowed the industry causing projects to delay into 2021,” she said. “He is now asking the IRS to extend the four-year window by another year to allow MWs that started construction in 2016 to spill into 2021 and still earn 100% PTC.”
Linowes said this is a “self-inflicted problem” that quickly spiraled out of control.
“Big Wind developers are looking back at the stockpile of safe-harbored turbines they knew would likely miss the 2020 deadline and they’re now hoping all of these turbines will qualify for the 100% PTC,” she said. “A one-year extension to the development window would fix things nicely. The public is being lied to about the issue. This is another massive cash grab by the wind industry. If you have any doubts see what the largest US wind developer reported this week.”
Linowes said while wind advocates claim oil, gas and nuclear power are heavily subsidized, the wind protection tax credit now represents the most expensive government expenditure (tax credits) in the energy sector, according to Treasury numbers.
“The wind PTC together with the energy investment tax credit (ITC) used for solar energy, dwarf all other energy-related credits and will reach over $9 billion in 2021 alone and over $60 billion cumulatively through to 2029,” she said. “Any further extensions will increase this cost to taxpayers.”
This begs the question: Is wind energy affordable?
“If by ‘affordable’ you mean competitive or cheaper than other sources of generation (gas, nuclear) I would say no, it is not affordable,” Linowes said. “For nearly a decade, the wind industry has touted that it was ready to move off the federal PTC and grow on its own without public assistance. The phase-down was intended to give the industry a gradual transition off subsidies and on to traditional sources of construction financing. But this did not happen.”
“Over the last five years since the phase-down was enacted, the industry spent its time trying to get as many projects permitted and built as possible,” she said. “The focus was on metal in the ground. Today the PTC represents between 50-65% of wind project costs. There is very little chance the industry will ever be able to make up the 50+% loss should the PTC finally end.”
However, there are exceptions, especially in some parts of the country where the wind resource is readily available and the cost of construction is low. Wind projects may be more competitive with fossil generation even without the PTC, but these areas are rare, Linowes said.
“But it is important to keep in mind that the subsidies are paid OUTSIDE of the energy market,” she said. “In other words, while the wind guys can sell their energy into the market at competitive energy prices and appear to be low cost, they are receiving a very large stream of revenue outside of that market that is allowing them to under-price their energy.
Limowes said while wind continues to struggle, there are affordable options. What is the best option at a time when millions of people are suddenly unemployed or dealing with reduced incomes?
“I’d have to say natural gas,” she said. “It is abundant and we are experiencing the longest period of low gas prices in our history.”


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--New Paper: Body condition of Barents Sea polar bears increased since 2004 despite sea ice loss

A recent paper that attempted to correlate pollution levels and body condition in Barents Sea polar bears reports it found body condition of female bears had increased between 2004 and 2017 despite a pronounced decline in summer and winter sea ice extent .
This result explains all the fat female polar bear photos coming out of the Svalbard region in recent years .
However , it is totally at odds with predictions of catastrophic declines in polar bear numbers in the Barents Sea and assertions that Barents Sea bears are one of the most vulnerable to the effects of global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Hamiltion and Derocher 2019 ; Regehr et al .
2016 ; Stern and Laidre 2016 ) due to a dramatic loss of sea ice ( see map below ) .
And that is before the high levels of sea ice in the region I ’ ve been reporting on here , here , here , here , and here .
Prior to this 2019 publication , all we have been provided with are body condition values for adult males ( 1993-2019 ) – showing them to have been doing well in recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Now , after years of loud public hand-wringing from polar bear activists , we find out that all along , adult females have been doing even better in recent years than they were before 2005 when there was more summer and winter ice .
Therefore , contrary to expectations , Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea bears have been shown to be thriving with less sea ice – and for Barents Sea bears it ’ s a lot less ice .
Oddly , the 2019 Lippold paper came to my attention because a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ of polar bears in the Barents Sea ( Blanchet et al .
2020 ) , cites Lippold et al .
2019 as evidence that Barents Sea polar bears have not shown signs of “ decreases in overall body condition “ .
Watch the pea… What Lippold et al .
actually say , in their abstract , is this [ my bold ] : Later in the paper ( pg .
988 ) , they had this to say [ my bold ] : “ Unexpectedly , body condition of female polar bears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2005 , although sea ice has retreated by ∼50 % since the late 1990s in the area , and the length of the ice-free season has increased by over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013 .
These changes are also accompanied by winter sea ice retreat that is especially pronounced in the Barents Sea compared to other Arctic areas .
Despite the declining sea ice in the Barents Sea , polar bears are likely not lacking food as long as sea ice is present during their peak feeding period .
Polar bears feed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seals have pups and are particularly vulnerable to predation , whereas the predation rate during the rest of the year is likely low.
” Note this statement : “ Despite the declining sea ice in the Barents Sea , polar bears are likely not lacking food as long as sea ice is present during their peak feeding period.
” Martyn Obbard and colleagues ( 2016 : 29 ) said essentially the same thing to explain why the body condition of Southern Hudson Bay polar bears had not declined in lock-step with sea ice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have said something very similar – many times – to explain why summer sea ice decline has not had a devastating effect on polar bears ( Crockford 2017 , 2019 , 2020 ) , a conclusion I arrived at from my review of the polar bear literature ( including Obbard ’ s paper ) .
Probably more than any other statement , it has been my insistence that summer sea ice is not essential polar bear habitat that I have been publicly disparaged and denigrated by journalists and colleagues ( see also Harvey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was undoubtedly also instrumental in the loss of my adjunct professor status .
Yet it is what the evidence shows .
Bottom line : Contrary to predictions , this new paper documents that the body condition of Barents Sea polar bears has improved significantly between 2005 and 2017 despite the most profound decline in summer sea ice of any polar bear subpopulation , which is consistent with a marked but non-statistically significant increase ( 42 % ) in population size ( Aars 2018 ; Aars et al .
2017 ; Crockford 2017 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ J .
2018 .
Population changes in polar bears : protected , but quickly losing habitat .
Fram Forum Newsletter 2018 .
Fram Centre , Tromso .
Download pdf here ( 32 mb ) .
Aars , J. , Marques , T.A , Lone , K. , Anderson , M. , Wiig , Ø. , Fløystad , I.M.B.
, Hagen , S.B .
and Buckland , S.T .
2017 .
The number and distribution of polar bears in the western Barents Sea .
Polar Research 36:1 .
1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125 Amstrup , S.C. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D.C. 2007 .
Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century .
US Geological Survey .
Reston , VA. Pdf here Crockford , S.J .
2017 .
Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30 % decline in population size of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) .
PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017 .
Doi : 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access .
https : //peerj.com/preprints/2737/ Crockford , S.J .
2019 .
The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened .
Global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in paperback and ebook formats .
Crockford , S.J .
2020 .
State of the Polar Bear Report 2019 .
Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39 , London .
PDF here .
Hamilton , S. and Derocher , A.E .
2019 .
Assessment of global polar bear abundance and vulnerability .
Animal Conservation 22 ( 1 ) :83-95. doi:10.1111/acv.12439 Harvey , J.A.
, van den Berg , D. , Ellers , J. , Kampen , R. , Crowther , T.W.
, Roessingh , P. , Verheggen , B. , Nuijten , R. J.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , S. , Stirling , I. , Balgopal , M. , Amstrup , S.C. , and Mann , M.E .
2017 .
Internet blogs , polar bears , and climate-change denial by proxy .
Bioscience 68 : 281-287 .
DOI : 10.1093/biosci/bix133 Open Access , available here .
Supplementary data file available here and the data for the principal component analysis is available here and ( h/t to R. Tol ) , the R code is available here Corrigendum here ( issued 28 March 2018 ) .
Scheduled for the April print issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ S. , Aars , J. , Andersen , M. , Polder , A. , Lyche , J.L.
, Bytingsvik , J. , Jenssen , B.M.
, Derocher , A.E.
, Welker , J.M .
and Routti , H. 2019 .
Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in Barents Sea polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in relation to changes in feeding habits and body condition .
Environmental Science and Technology 53 ( 2 ) :984-995 .
Obbard , M.E.
, Cattet , M.R.I.
, Howe , E.J.
, Middel , K.R.
, Newton @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Abraham , K.F .
and Greenwood , C.J .
2016 .
Trends in body condition in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice .
Arctic Science 2:15-32 Doi 10.1139/AS-2015-0027 http : //www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/AS-2015-0027 # .VvFtlXpUq50 Regehr , E.V.
, Laidre , K.L , Akçakaya , H.R.
, Amstrup , S.C. , Atwood , T.C.
, Lunn , N.J. , Obbard , M. , Stern , H. , Thiemann , G.W.
, & Wiig , Ø .
2016 .
Conservation status of polar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to projected sea-ice declines .
Biology Letters 12 : 20160556. http : //rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556

A recent paper that attempted to correlate pollution levels and body condition in Barents Sea polar bears reports it found body condition of female bears had increased between 2004 and 2017 despite a pronounced decline in summer and winter sea ice extent.
“Unexpectedly, body condition of female polar bears from the Barents Sea has increased after 2005, although sea ice has retreated by ∼50% since the late 1990s in the area, and the length of the ice-free season has increased by over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013. These changes are also accompanied by winter sea ice retreat that is especially pronounced in the Barents Sea compared to other Arctic areas” [Lippold et al. 2019:988]
This result explains all the fat female polar bear photos coming out of the Svalbard region in recent years. However, it is totally at odds with predictions of catastrophic declines in polar bear numbers in the Barents Sea and assertions that Barents Sea bears are one of the most vulnerable to the effects of global warming (Amstrup et al. 2007; Hamiltion and Derocher 2019; Regehr et al. 2016; Stern and Laidre 2016) due to a dramatic loss of sea ice (see map below). And that is before the high levels of sea ice in the region I’ve been reporting on here, here, here, here, and here.
Prior to this 2019 publication, all we have been provided with are body condition values for adult males (1993-2019) – showing them to have been doing well in recent years with no trend in body condition. Now, after years of loud public hand-wringing from polar bear activists, we find out that all along, adult females have been doing even better in recent years than they were before 2005 when there was more summer and winter ice. Therefore, contrary to expectations, Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea bears have been shown to be thriving with less sea ice – and for Barents Sea bears it’s a lot less ice.
Oddly, the 2019 Lippold paper came to my attention because a paper published last month about ‘space-use’ of polar bears in the Barents Sea (Blanchet et al. 2020), cites Lippold et al. 2019 as evidence that Barents Sea polar bears have not shown signs of “decreases in overall body condition“. Watch the pea…
What Lippold et al. actually say, in their abstract, is this [my bold]:
“Body condition [of adult females], based on morphometric measurements, had a nonsignificant decreasing tendency between 1997 and 2005, and increased significantly between 2005 and 2017.“
Later in the paper (pg. 988), they had this to say [my bold]:
“Unexpectedly, body condition of female polar bears from the Barents Sea has increased after 2005, although sea ice has retreated by ∼50% since the late 1990s in the area, and the length of the ice-free season has increased by over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013. These changes are also accompanied by winter sea ice retreat that is especially pronounced in the Barents Sea compared to other Arctic areas. Despite the declining sea ice in the Barents Sea, polar bears are likely not lacking food as long as sea ice is present during their peak feeding period. Polar bears feed extensively from April to June when ringed seals have pups and are particularly vulnerable to predation, whereas the predation rate during the rest of the year is likely low.”
Note this statement: “Despite the declining sea ice in the Barents Sea, polar bears are likely not lacking food as long as sea ice is present during their peak feeding period.”
Martyn Obbard and colleagues (2016: 29) said essentially the same thing to explain why the body condition of Southern Hudson Bay polar bears had not declined in lock-step with sea ice declines in recent years. And I have said something very similar – many times – to explain why summer sea ice decline has not had a devastating effect on polar bears (Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020), a conclusion I arrived at from my review of the polar bear literature (including Obbard’s paper).
Probably more than any other statement, it has been my insistence that summer sea ice is not essential polar bear habitat that I have been publicly disparaged and denigrated by journalists and colleagues (see also Harvey et al. 2018). It was undoubtedly also instrumental in the loss of my adjunct professor status. Yet it is what the evidence shows.
Bottom line: Contrary to predictions, this new paper documents that the body condition of Barents Sea polar bears has improved significantly between 2005 and 2017 despite the most profound decline in summer sea ice of any polar bear subpopulation, which is consistent with a marked but non-statistically significant increase (42%) in population size (Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017; Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020).
References
Aars, J. 2018. Population changes in polar bears: protected, but quickly losing habitat. Fram Forum Newsletter 2018. Fram Centre, Tromso. Download pdf here (32 mb).
Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, K., Anderson, M., Wiig, Ø., Fløystad, I.M.B., Hagen, S.B. and Buckland, S.T. 2017. The number and distribution of polar bears in the western Barents Sea. Polar Research 36:1. 1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125
Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here
Blanchet, M.A., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Routti, H. 2020. Space-use strategy affects energy requirements in Barents Sea polar bears. Marine Ecology Progress Series 639:1-19. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13290
Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/
Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in paperback and ebook formats.
Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. PDF here.
Hamilton, S. and Derocher, A.E. 2019. Assessment of global polar bear abundance and vulnerability. Animal Conservation 22(1):83-95. doi:10.1111/acv.12439
Harvey, J.A., van den Berg, D., Ellers, J., Kampen, R., Crowther, T.W., Roessingh, P., Verheggen, B., Nuijten, R. J. M., Post, E., Lewandowsky, S., Stirling, I., Balgopal, M., Amstrup, S.C., and Mann, M.E. 2017. Internet blogs, polar bears, and climate-change denial by proxy. Bioscience 68: 281-287. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix133 Open Access, available here. Supplementary data file available here and the data for the principal component analysis is available here and (h/t to R. Tol), the R code is available here Corrigendum here (issued 28 March 2018). Scheduled for the April print issue.
Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Polder, A., Lyche, J.L., Bytingsvik, J., Jenssen, B.M., Derocher, A.E., Welker, J.M. and Routti, H. 2019. Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to changes in feeding habits and body condition. Environmental Science and Technology 53(2):984-995.
Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, K.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, K.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016. Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science 2:15-32 Doi 10.1139/AS-2015-0027 http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/AS-2015-0027#.VvFtlXpUq50
Regehr, E.V., Laidre, K.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556
Stern, H.L. and Laidre, K.L. 2016. Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat. Cryosphere 10: 2027-2041.
via polarbearscience
https://ift.tt/3baG31Y
May 5, 2020 at 05:48PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Historic cold headed for Upper Midwest and Ontario

Polar vortex to bring record cold to Ontario , ” reads the headline .
But when you look at the maps , you find that Minnesota , Wisconsin and Michigan are also slated for historic cold … And maybe snow .
5 May 2020 – Environment Canada warns that much of Ontario can expect record cold temperatures for at least the next week .
Gerald Cheng , a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada , said residents in some areas of eastern and southern Ontario can expect to see nighttime temperatures dip below zero on Friday and Saturday , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Cheng said the seasonal daytime temperature for Ontario during this time of year is usually around 17 C with nighttime lows not going below 7 C. “ So we ’ re talking about nine to 10 degrees off , so you can expect record cold temperatures for the time of year , ” Cheng said .
The historic cold also brings the potential for “ significant ” snow across the Great Lakes Basin into the weekend , particularly over higher terrain .
Snowfall isn ’ t exceptionally unusual in northern Ontario in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for parts of southern Ontario ( especially “ significant ” amounts ) .
Toronto typically accumulates a few centimetres of May snowfall every couple of decades , but it was notably more common in the 1960s and 1970s .
Expect continuous threats of snow flurries , squals and rounds of graupel .
Thanks to Argiris Diamantis ( and a reader who prefers not to be named ) for these links The post Historic cold headed for Upper Midwest and Ontario appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Polar vortex to bring record cold to Ontario,” reads the headline. But when you look at the maps, you find that Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are also slated for historic cold … And maybe snow.
5 May 2020 – Environment Canada warns that much of Ontario can expect record cold temperatures for at least the next week.
Gerald Cheng, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada, said residents in some areas of eastern and southern Ontario can expect to see nighttime temperatures dip below zero on Friday and Saturday, with cooler temperatures sticking around until the weekend.
Cheng said the seasonal daytime temperature for Ontario during this time of year is usually around 17 C with nighttime lows not going below 7 C.
“So we’re talking about nine to 10 degrees off, so you can expect record cold temperatures for the time of year,” Cheng said.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/polar-vortex-to-bring-record-cold-temperatures-to-ontario-environment-canada-1.4925434
May Snow Threat
The historic cold also brings the potential for “significant” snow across the Great Lakes Basin into the weekend, particularly over higher terrain.
Snowfall isn’t exceptionally unusual in northern Ontario in May, but it is quite extraordinary for parts of southern Ontario (especially “significant” amounts).
Toronto typically accumulates a few centimetres of May snowfall every couple of decades, but it was notably more common in the 1960s and 1970s.
Expect continuous threats of snow flurries, squals and rounds of graupel.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/polar-vortex-could-bring-historically-cold-temperatures-in-ontario
Thanks to Argiris Diamantis (and a reader who prefers not to be named) for these links
The post Historic cold headed for Upper Midwest and Ontario appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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May 5, 2020 at 05:08PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--GWPF Webinar: Coronavirus, Climate Change and the Role of Science in Public Policy

The GWPF ’ s Head of Policy , Harry Wilkinson , speaks to Toby Young , Matt Ridley and Inaya @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus pandemic has sparked a vigorous debate about the role of science in public life @ @ @ @ @ detractors have claimed they are ‘ following the science ’ , a refrain that is @ @ @ @ @ us who have followed the climate change debate .
But to what extent can science @ @ @ @ @ do ?
Should expert opinion ever override the democratic process ?
Or are fear and @ @ @ @ @ rational decisions ?
The post GWPF Webinar : Coronavirus , Climate Change and the Role @ @ @ @ @ appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

The GWPF’s Head of Policy, Harry Wilkinson, speaks to Toby Young, Matt Ridley and Inaya Folarin Iman.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has sparked a vigorous debate about the role of science in public life. Both governments and their detractors have claimed they are ‘following the science’, a refrain that is very familiar to those of us who have followed the climate change debate. But to what extent can science really tell us what to do? Should expert opinion ever override the democratic process? Or are fear and uncertainty preventing us from making rational decisions?
The post GWPF Webinar: Coronavirus, Climate Change and the Role of Science in Public Policy appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 5, 2020 at 04:06PM


UN Employment Models

Six weeks ago , the UN predicted 7.4 million lost jobs in “ high-income countries ” “ due to the @ @ @ @ @ jobs could be lost globally due to the coronavirus There have already been at least @ @ @ @ @ the US alone , and they are not due to a virus .
The cause @ @ @ @ @ a panicked response by state and local governments to predictions made by useless UN backed @ @ @ @ @ wildly exaggerate climate and virus effects , while massively understating the economic impact of their @ @ @ @ @ should be obvious to everyone by now that UN models are about a political agenda @ @ @ @ @ many people keep getting fooled over and over again .

Six weeks ago, the UN predicted 7.4 million lost jobs in “high-income countries” “due to the coronavirus.”
Nearly 25 million jobs could be lost globally due to the coronavirus
There have already been at least 35 million job losses in the US alone, and they are not due to a virus. The cause of the job losses was/is a panicked response by state and local governments to predictions made by useless UN backed virus models.
UN models wildly exaggerate climate and virus effects, while massively understating the economic impact of their nonsensical mitigation plans. It should be obvious to everyone by now that UN models are about a political agenda, not science. Yet many people keep getting fooled over and over again.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Missed It By That Much

Missed It By That Much

Worthless virus models from Imperial College led the world down a path to high speed economic collapse .
A feat @ @ @ @ @ ’ t have hoped to achieve .
Sweden tames its ‘ R number ’ without @ @ @ @

Worthless virus models from Imperial College led the world down a path to high speed economic collapse. A feat which even Michael Mann couldn’t have hoped to achieve.
Sweden tames its ‘R number’ without lockdown | The Spectator


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--New video by GWPF on YouTube

New video by GWPF on YouTube

GWPF Webinar : Coronavirus , Climate Change and the Role of Science in Public Policy The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has @ @ @ @ @ the role of science in public life .
Both governments and their detractors have claimed @ @ @ @ @ science ’ , a refrain that is very familiar to those of us who have @ @ @ @ @ .
But to what extent can science really tell us what to do ?
Should @ @ @ @ @ democratic process ?
Or are fear and uncertainty preventing us from making rational decisions ?
@ @ @ @ @ Harry Wilkinson to discuss these issues are Toby Young , Matt Ridley and Inaya Folarin @ @

GWPF Webinar: Coronavirus, Climate Change and the Role of Science in Public Policy
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has sparked a vigorous debate about the role of science in public life. Both governments and their detractors have claimed they are ‘following the science’, a refrain that is very familiar to those of us who have followed the climate change debate. But to what extent can science really tell us what to do? Should expert opinion ever override the democratic process? Or are fear and uncertainty preventing us from making rational decisions?
Joining the GWPF’s Harry Wilkinson to discuss these issues are Toby Young, Matt Ridley and Inaya Folarin Iman.
View on YouTube


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--Climate goalpost migration: if you can’t prove more hurricanes, say it’s making them relocate

From NOAA HEADQUARTERS ( via EurekaAlert ) and the “ Climate Refugees ” department comes this inane claim that can easily be explained by natural ocean current pattern changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridontal Oscillation , but instead get the universal boogeyman of “ climate change ” applied as the driver .
Takeaway : “ the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades ” .
Study : Climate change has been influencing where tropical cyclones rage While the global average number of tropical cyclones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the last four decades , climate change has been influencing the locations of where these deadly storms occur , according to new NOAA-led research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences .
New research indicates that the number of tropical cyclones has been rising since 1980 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific , while storms have been declining in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean .
“ We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern can not be explained only by natural variability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate researcher at NOAA ’ s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author .
Murakami used climate models to determine that greenhouse gases , manmade aerosols including particulate pollution , and volcanic eruptions were influencing where tropical cyclones were hitting .
Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean .
This combines to create a more stable atmosphere with less chance that convection of air currents will help spawn and build up tropical cyclones .
Particulate pollution and other aerosols help create clouds and reflect sunlight away from the earth , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline in particulate pollution due to pollution control measures may increase the warming of the ocean by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean .
Diminishing manmade aerosols is one of the reasons for the active tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the last 40 years , Murakami said .
However , toward the end of this century , tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are projected to decrease due to the “ calming ” effect of greenhouse gases .
Volcanic eruptions have also altered the location of where tropical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research .
For example , the major eruptions in El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 caused the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere to cool , which shifted tropical cyclone activity southward for a few years .
Ocean warming has resumed since 2000 , leading to increased tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere .
Looking ahead : Scientists predict fewer tropical cyclones by 2100 but likely more severe Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the new study .
Declines are projected in most regions except in the Central Pacific Ocean , including Hawaii , where tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase .
Despite a projected decline in tropical cyclones by 2100 , many of these cyclones will be significantly more severe .
Why ?
Rising sea surface temperatures fuel the intensity and destructiveness of tropical storms .
“ We hope this research provides information to help decision-makers understand the forces driving tropical cyclone patterns and make plans accordingly to protect lives and infrastructure , @ @ @ @

From NOAA HEADQUARTERS (via EurekaAlert) and the “Climate Refugees” department comes this inane claim that can easily be explained by natural ocean current pattern changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridontal Oscillation, but instead get the universal boogeyman of “climate change” applied as the driver. Takeaway: “the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades”.
Study: Climate change has been influencing where tropical cyclones rage
While the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades, climate change has been influencing the locations of where these deadly storms occur, according to new NOAA-led research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
New research indicates that the number of tropical cyclones has been rising since 1980 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific, while storms have been declining in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean.
“We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern cannot be explained only by natural variability,” said Hiroyuki Murakami, a climate researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author.
Murakami used climate models to determine that greenhouse gases, manmade aerosols including particulate pollution, and volcanic eruptions were influencing where tropical cyclones were hitting.
3 forces influence where storms are hitting
Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean. This combines to create a more stable atmosphere with less chance that convection of air currents will help spawn and build up tropical cyclones.
Particulate pollution and other aerosols help create clouds and reflect sunlight away from the earth, causing cooling, Murakami said. The decline in particulate pollution due to pollution control measures may increase the warming of the ocean by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean.
Diminishing manmade aerosols is one of the reasons for the active tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the last 40 years, Murakami said. However, toward the end of this century, tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are projected to decrease due to the “calming” effect of greenhouse gases.
Volcanic eruptions have also altered the location of where tropical cyclones have occurred, according to the research. For example, the major eruptions in El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 caused the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere to cool, which shifted tropical cyclone activity southward for a few years. Ocean warming has resumed since 2000, leading to increased tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere.
Looking ahead: Scientists predict fewer tropical cyclones by 2100 but likely more severe
Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average of 86 to about 69 worldwide, according to the new study. Declines are projected in most regions except in the Central Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii, where tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase.
Despite a projected decline in tropical cyclones by 2100, many of these cyclones will be significantly more severe. Why? Rising sea surface temperatures fuel the intensity and destructiveness of tropical storms.
“We hope this research provides information to help decision-makers understand the forces driving tropical cyclone patterns and make plans accordingly to protect lives and infrastructure,” Murakami said.
###


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-05--97% Consensus Claim? German Historians Warn Against Shutting Down “Open Debate”, “Opinions”

In these times when legitimate , qualified and alternative voices and opinions on science are being snuffed out by the mainstream and social media , e.g .
: on issues related to the Corona lock down and the causes behind climate change , many worry that our fundamental rights are being infringed .
“ I ’ ve been called on to save you !
” Führers like claiming they represent overwhelming “ consensus ” , the Association of German Historians warns .
Image : Science Skeptical The Association of German Historians ( VHD , Verband der Historiker und Historikerinnen Deutschlands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Current Threats to Democracy “ , warning against populism .
The scientists at the German Die kalte Sonne site here noted , however , the often claimed “ 97 % consensus ” in climate science “ sounds despicable and reminds us of the election results of autocratic regimes ” .
How does science actually work and how does democracy work ?
” To shed some light on this , here ’ s what the Association of German Historians writes on its website : For parliamentary democracy and a pluralistic culture of debate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy is the result of open debates in which a variety of political opinions and social interests are expressed .
A unified will of the people that can be discerned by those regarding themselves as ‘ called ’ is , in contrast , a fiction , used by people in political debates primarily for the purpose of making themselves invulnerable .
In the Weimar Republic , the idea of ‘ the people ’ s will ’ smoothed the way to power for a movement whose ‘ Führer ’ saw himself as the incarnation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Also , in light of colonial violence committed by Europeans in other parts of the world , it is crucial to acknowledge our shared responsibility for the consequences of our policies in regions outside of Europe.
” Of course this message is aimed at the White House and to other capitals that aren ’ t popular with the European elitist establishment nowadays .
Unfortunately , these warnings need to be heeded by the elitist European policymakers and activists the VHD likes to laud and defend .
Lately European mainstream media , elitists and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have come forward to express dissenting views .
In Germany climate and lock down dissenters – who are in fact experts – are routinely slandered as “ deniers ” , charlatans ” , “ right-wingers ” , crackpots – or worse .
Meanwhile , the fake-science-based “ climate crisis ” – resulting from am authoritarian shutdown of “ open debate ” and opposing opinion – is already having grave consequences on our youth .

In these times when legitimate, qualified and alternative voices and opinions on science are being snuffed out by the mainstream and social media, e.g.: on issues related to the Corona lock down and the causes behind climate change, many worry that our fundamental rights are being infringed.
“I’ve been called on to save you!” Führers like claiming they represent overwhelming “consensus”, the Association of German Historians warns. Image: Science Skeptical
The Association of German Historians (VHD, Verband der Historiker und Historikerinnen Deutschlands) has issued a statement on “Current Threats to Democracy“, warning against populism.
The scientists at the German Die kalte Sonne site here noted, however, the often claimed “97% consensus” in climate science “sounds despicable and reminds us of the election results of autocratic regimes”. How does science actually work and how does democracy work?”
To shed some light on this, here’s what the Association of German Historians writes on its website:
For parliamentary democracy and a pluralistic culture of debate, against populism In pluralistic democracies, public policy is the result of open debates in which a variety of political opinions and social interests are expressed. A unified will of the people that can be discerned by those regarding themselves as ‘called’ is, in contrast, a fiction, used by people in political debates primarily for the purpose of making themselves invulnerable. In the Weimar Republic, the idea of ‘the people’s will’ smoothed the way to power for a movement whose ‘Führer’ saw himself as the incarnation of that will. […] Also, in light of colonial violence committed by Europeans in other parts of the world, it is crucial to acknowledge our shared responsibility for the consequences of our policies in regions outside of Europe.”
Of course this message is aimed at the White House and to other capitals that aren’t popular with the European elitist establishment nowadays. Unfortunately, these warnings need to be heeded by the elitist European policymakers and activists the VHD likes to laud and defend. Lately European mainstream media, elitists and activists have been insulting and slandering experts who have come forward to express dissenting views.
In Germany climate and lock down dissenters – who are in fact experts – are routinely slandered as “deniers”, charlatans”, “right-wingers”, crackpots – or worse.
The grave consequences of baseless fear
Meanwhile, the fake-science-based “climate crisis” – resulting from am authoritarian shutdown of “open debate” and opposing opinion – is already having grave consequences on our youth.
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May 5, 2020 at 11:24AM