iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--“Predictive models” rarely are predictive

Predictive models dominate our lives — not always for the better BY MERRILL MATTHEWS , OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 05/06/20 The vast majority of Americans are completely unaware of how much models that predict the future of the economy and the climate – and now disease – dominate our lives .
There ’ s no escaping their reach .
Those models drive many of our public policy debates and much of the major legislation passed by Congress .
That might not be so bad if the models ’ predictions were generally accurate .
But they aren ’ t .
Indeed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the late statistician Prof. George E. P. Box warned us : “ All models are wrong , but some are useful.
” All models are built on a multitude of assumptions , and many of those assumptions increasingly reflect the ideological and political views of the modelers .
If the assumptions are skewed , so will be a model ’ s predictions .
Environmentalists , the left and most of the media accuse skeptics of being “ climate deniers.
” But what many on the right are skeptical of isn ’ t actual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ predictions of temperatures and sea level rise 50 or 100 years in the future .
And yet the media regularly conflate the two .
If you don ’ t believe the predictions of a climate model then you are denying the science , when what ’ s actually being questioned is many of the assumptions built into the model .
Here ’ s an example .
Nearly all climate models in the late 1990s and early 2000s greatly overestimated rising temperatures because they didn ’ t take into account what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” that lasted about 14 years – from about 1998 to 2012 – when global temperatures remained relatively flat .
In other words , the actual data did not match the models ’ predictions , which left climate modelers and environmentalists scrambling to explain the discrepancies .
And yet leftists and environmentalists want us to dramatically alter the economy and our way of life – e.g.
, through the Green New Deal – based on predictions that might , but probably won ’ t , be correct .
And speaking of predictions that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ talk about those coronavirus pandemic models ?
A new National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER ) working paper highlights just how influential – and wrong – some of the pandemic models have been .
Both U.S. and UK leaders were advocating a measured response to the coronavirus pandemic until the UK ’ s Imperial College-London released its model ’ s results predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the U.S .
Within a couple of weeks , the Imperial College scaled back its predictions , to no more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic modelers have been revising their worst-case scenarios .
Even so , the media have been obsessed with the worst-case numbers .
And anyone who raised doubts about those predictions was pilloried by the media and the left as denying the “ science.
” And yet models increasingly control our lives because policymakers use them to justify their actions and their votes .
As Dr. Anthony Fauci , the lead U.S. epidemiologist in this pandemic , recently warned , “ I know my modeling colleagues are going to not be happy with me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the assumptions you put into them.
” He ’ s right .
Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas , Texas .
Follow him on Twitter @ MerrillMatthews .
The IHME ( Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington ) is anther model policymakers have relied upon .
Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn ’ t guide U.S. policies , critics say By SHARON BEGLEY @ sxbegleAPRIL 17 , 2020 A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever , and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers .
In particular , they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making , including on “ re-opening America.
” “ It ’ s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited ” to projecting Covid-19 deaths , epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H .
Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington .
Others experts , including some colleagues of the model-makers , are even harsher .
“ That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool , ” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center , who has served on a search committee for IHME .
“ That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.
” The chief reason the IHME @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is that “ the fact that they overshot will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe , when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.
” IHME initially projected 38,000 to 162,000 U.S. deaths .
The White House combined those estimates with others to warn of 100,000 to 240,000 potential deaths .
IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach .
It doesn ’ t even try to model the transmission of disease , or the incubation period , or other features @ @ @ @ @ @ @ models at Imperial College London and others do .
It doesn ’ t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others , how many additional cases each earlier case causes , or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades .
Instead , IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S. , first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain .
It then produces a graph showing the number of deaths rising and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dissipated in those cities , resulting in a bell curve .
Then ( to oversimplify somewhat ) it finds where U.S. data fits on that curve .
The death curves in cities outside the U.S. are assumed to describe the U.S. , too , with no attempt to judge whether countermeasures —lockdowns and other social-distancing strategies — in the U.S. are and will be as effective as elsewhere , especially Wuhan .
While other epidemiologists disagree on whether IHME ’ s deaths projections are too high or too low , there is consensus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the public : — Last week IHME projected that Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would total about 60,000 by August 4 ; this week that was revised to 68,000 , with 95 % certainty that the actual toll would be between 30,188 and 175,965 .
— On March 27 , it projected that New York would see 10,243 deaths ( and that the total had a 95 % chance of falling between 5,167 to 26,444 ) by early August .
Three days later , the New York projection was 15,546 , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jewell and her colleagues pointed out in another analysis , published in JAMA on Thursday .
— On April 8 , IHME projected 5,625 deaths for Massachusetts by August ; on April 13 , it was 8,219 .
A different , data-driven model from researchers at the University of Washington predicts “ about 1 million cases in the U.S. by the end of the epidemic , around the first week in June , with new cases peaking in mid-April , ” said UW applied mathematician Ka-Kit Tung , who led the work .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we project that the number of new cases will be close to zero if current social distancing policies are maintained.
” That model predicted two weeks ago that the number of new daily cases would peak around now , as seems to be the case .
One of the major pitfalls in using predictive models to drive policy decisions , is that no matter what happens , it always would have been worse , if we hadn ’ t followed the model-driven opinions of “ experts ” … Rarely do we ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not “ the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe.
” One of the clearest examples of being able to demonstrate that “ the predictions were shaky in the first place.
” was the 2009 economic stimulus bill .
Summarizing his wonderful , magisterial book , The Discoverers , in an interview , historian Daniel Boorstin said , “ The great obstacle to progress is not ignorance , but the illusion of knowledge.
” Fast forward to one of the great illusions of our time , the infamous chart that precisely laid out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at each stage of the recovery , with and without the Obama stimulus package .
Today the chart is a monument to folly .
It is not merely incorrect ; it is stunningly off .
It might as well have been produced by a witch doctor or by random guessing .
The chart by Obama economic elves Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer — it would be granting them far too much dignity to call them “ economists ” — tells us that , were it not for the miracle of the stimulus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 5.7 percent today , but with the stimulus we were told to expect a jobless rate of about 5.2 percent .
Instead , unemployment is at 7.8 percent , and the $ 800 billion we spent on snake oil stimulus has vanished as the disease it purported to cure continues to ravage us .
There is a direct line between the arrogance of the chart and the personality of the Commander in Chief .
Obama is a frightening combination : He possesses both a proudly non-empirical mind — he admitted on The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skills began to fail him as early as seventh grade and that homework in the subject done by his ninth-grader daughter baffles him — and an absolute faith in those who call themselves scientists .
Like the most devout churchgoers , he admits to no understanding of how those he worships works , yet is prepared to defend everything they do .
The difference is that people of faith don ’ t get to redirect hundreds of billions of dollars of other people ’ s money to their belief system .
“ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially about the future ” … But it ’ s easy to get away with bogus predictions , if there ’ s no way determine what would have happened under different conditions .
In the case of the worst COVID-19 model , Covid Act Now , they just keep shifting doomsday to the day after people are allowed to go back to work .
Texas began lifting restrictions on May 1 .
The Covid Act Now model is particularly useless , because it has two options 1 ) current trend and 2 ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no restrictions scenario , Texas would have had about 25,000-30,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations by now… As of May 7 , Texas has 1,750 COVID-19 hospitalizations… The latest Covid Act Now model , still shows Texas at the brink of doomsday… To hammer home , the danger to our liberty and prosperity , that bureaucrats armed with models present… Dallas County government officials have steadfastly relied on the Covid Act Now models in imposing restrictions on Dallas County residents .
They recently extended the shelter in place order to mid-May , defying the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the end of April .
Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins ( Fire Marshal Gump ) and Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Phillip Huang cited a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases that mysteriously began on May 1 , 2020 and claimed this was not due to increased testing… But Dallas County will not release data on the number of tests being performed or recoveries .
Another COVID-19 Record for Dallas County ; Masks Required , Enforcement Unclear County judge amends county order to make Gov .
Greg Abbott ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dallas County By Frank Heinz • Published May 4 , 2020 Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins amended his Safer at Home order Monday to make Gov .
Greg Abbott ’ s recommendations for businesses reopening in Dallas County to now be requirements .
“ For instance , when the governor says to the fullest extent possible wear a mask as a recommendation , we would say that ’ s a requirement , ” Jenkins said .
“ When the governor says in a movie theater , let ’ s close every other row @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s recommended , we say in Dallas county that ’ s required.
” He told NBC 5 Monday that the county doesn ’ t plan to fine individuals , but that code inspectors could fine businesses .
The amended order can be seen below .
Dallas County is now reporting a total of 4,370 positive COVID-19 cases .
Dallas County has not been releasing statistics on the number of recoveries in the county saying it ’ s not a surveillance variable being used nationally by the Centers for Disease Control and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dallas County won ’ t report daily testing data , only reporting positive tests and deaths , the claim that “ This increase in positive cases has occurred without any significant increase in testing capacity , ” can ’ t be verified .
And the Dallas County claim sticks out like a sore thumb .
The State of Texas publishes statewide testing data… The rate of statewide testing clearly has been increasing , while the rate of positive tests has steadily been decreasing .
Yet Dallas County claims that the positive tests spiked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the infection rate was still increasing , therefore , restrictions must be tightened .
However , Jenkins claims that “ the county doesn ’ t plan to fine individuals ” … Except… Shelley Luther wasn ’ t jailed for violating “ countywide restrictions , ” she was jailed for refusing to apologize to Dallas County officials .
Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick paid her fine , the Texas Supreme Court ordered her immediate release from jail and Governor Abbott has ensured that this sort of travesty doesn ’ t happen again .

Guest “Yogi Berra’ism ” by David Middleton
Source: First Coast Advisers
Predictive models dominate our lives — not always for the better
BY MERRILL MATTHEWS, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 05/06/20 The vast majority of Americans are completely unaware of how much models that predict the future of the economy and the climate – and now disease – dominate our lives. There’s no escaping their reach. Those models drive many of our public policy debates and much of the major legislation passed by Congress. That might not be so bad if the models’ predictions were generally accurate. But they aren’t. Indeed, they are often wildly wrong. As the late statistician Prof. George E. P. Box warned us: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” […] All models are built on a multitude of assumptions, and many of those assumptions increasingly reflect the ideological and political views of the modelers. If the assumptions are skewed, so will be a model’s predictions. […] Environmentalists, the left and most of the media accuse skeptics of being “climate deniers.” But what many on the right are skeptical of isn’t actual scientific data, but some climate models’ predictions of temperatures and sea level rise 50 or 100 years in the future. And yet the media regularly conflate the two. If you don’t believe the predictions of a climate model then you are denying the science, when what’s actually being questioned is many of the assumptions built into the model. Here’s an example. Nearly all climate models in the late 1990s and early 2000s greatly overestimated rising temperatures because they didn’t take into account what’s now known as the “warming hiatus” that lasted about 14 years – from about 1998 to 2012 – when global temperatures remained relatively flat. In other words, the actual data did not match the models’ predictions, which left climate modelers and environmentalists scrambling to explain the discrepancies. […] And yet leftists and environmentalists want us to dramatically alter the economy and our way of life – e.g., through the Green New Deal – based on predictions that might, but probably won’t, be correct. And speaking of predictions that aren’t correct, can we talk about those coronavirus pandemic models? A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper highlights just how influential – and wrong – some of the pandemic models have been. Both U.S. and UK leaders were advocating a measured response to the coronavirus pandemic until the UK’s Imperial College-London released its model’s results predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. […] Within a couple of weeks, the Imperial College scaled back its predictions, to no more than 20,000 UK deaths. And most pandemic modelers have been revising their worst-case scenarios. […] Even so, the media have been obsessed with the worst-case numbers. And anyone who raised doubts about those predictions was pilloried by the media and the left as denying the “science.” […] And yet models increasingly control our lives because policymakers use them to justify their actions and their votes. As Dr. Anthony Fauci, the lead U.S. epidemiologist in this pandemic, recently warned, “I know my modeling colleagues are going to not be happy with me, but models are as good as the assumptions you put into them.” He’s right. […] Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on Twitter @MerrillMatthews. The Hill
The IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington) is anther model policymakers have relied upon.
Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say
By SHARON BEGLEY @sxbegleAPRIL 17, 2020 A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.” “It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.” […] The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.” IHME initially projected 38,000 to 162,000 U.S. deaths. The White House combined those estimates with others to warn of 100,000 to 240,000 potential deaths. […] IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades. Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain. It then produces a graph showing the number of deaths rising and falling as the epidemic exploded and then dissipated in those cities, resulting in a bell curve. Then (to oversimplify somewhat) it finds where U.S. data fits on that curve. The death curves in cities outside the U.S. are assumed to describe the U.S., too, with no attempt to judge whether countermeasures —lockdowns and other social-distancing strategies — in the U.S. are and will be as effective as elsewhere, especially Wuhan. […] While other epidemiologists disagree on whether IHME’s deaths projections are too high or too low, there is consensus that their volatility has confused policy makers and the public: — Last week IHME projected that Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would total about 60,000 by August 4; this week that was revised to 68,000, with 95% certainty that the actual toll would be between 30,188 and 175,965. — On March 27, it projected that New York would see 10,243 deaths (and that the total had a 95% chance of falling between 5,167 to 26,444) by early August. Three days later, the New York projection was 15,546, and on April 3 it was 16,262, Jewell and her colleagues pointed out in another analysis, published in JAMA on Thursday. — On April 8, IHME projected 5,625 deaths for Massachusetts by August; on April 13, it was 8,219. […] A different, data-driven model from researchers at the University of Washington predicts “about 1 million cases in the U.S. by the end of the epidemic, around the first week in June, with new cases peaking in mid-April,” said UW applied mathematician Ka-Kit Tung, who led the work. “By the first week of June, we project that the number of new cases will be close to zero if current social distancing policies are maintained.” That model predicted two weeks ago that the number of new daily cases would peak around now, as seems to be the case. Stat News
One of the major pitfalls in using predictive models to drive policy decisions, is that no matter what happens, it always would have been worse, if we hadn’t followed the model-driven opinions of “experts”…
The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.” Stat News
Rarely do we ever have a way to determine whether or not “the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe.” One of the clearest examples of being able to demonstrate that “the predictions were shaky in the first place.” was the 2009 economic stimulus bill.
The Grand Obama Illusion: Major Promises Never Delivered Kyle Smith Summarizing his wonderful, magisterial book, The Discoverers, in an interview, historian Daniel Boorstin said, “The great obstacle to progress is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge.” Fast forward to one of the great illusions of our time, the infamous chart that precisely laid out exactly what the unemployment rate would be at each stage of the recovery, with and without the Obama stimulus package. Today the chart is a monument to folly. It is not merely incorrect; it is stunningly off. It might as well have been produced by a witch doctor or by random guessing. […] The chart by Obama economic elves Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer — it would be granting them far too much dignity to call them “economists” — tells us that, were it not for the miracle of the stimulus, we would be stuck with unemployment of about 5.7 percent today, but with the stimulus we were told to expect a jobless rate of about 5.2 percent. Instead, unemployment is at 7.8 percent, and the $800 billion we spent on snake oil stimulus has vanished as the disease it purported to cure continues to ravage us. There is a direct line between the arrogance of the chart and the personality of the Commander in Chief. Obama is a frightening combination: He possesses both a proudly non-empirical mind — he admitted on The Tonight Show this week that his math skills began to fail him as early as seventh grade and that homework in the subject done by his ninth-grader daughter baffles him — and an absolute faith in those who call themselves scientists. Like the most devout churchgoers, he admits to no understanding of how those he worships works, yet is prepared to defend everything they do. The difference is that people of faith don’t get to redirect hundreds of billions of dollars of other people’s money to their belief system. […] Forbes, October 31, 2012
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”… But it’s easy to get away with bogus predictions, if there’s no way determine what would have happened under different conditions. In the case of the worst COVID-19 model, Covid Act Now, they just keep shifting doomsday to the day after people are allowed to go back to work.
Texas began lifting restrictions on May 1. The Covid Act Now model is particularly useless, because it has two options 1) current trend and 2) no restrictions at all. In the no restrictions scenario, Texas would have had about 25,000-30,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations by now…
Covid Act Now, Texas, April 18, 2020
As of May 7, Texas has 1,750 COVID-19 hospitalizations…
The latest Covid Act Now model, still shows Texas at the brink of doomsday…
Covid Act Now, Texas, May 7, 2020
To hammer home, the danger to our liberty and prosperity, that bureaucrats armed with models present… Dallas County government officials have steadfastly relied on the Covid Act Now models in imposing restrictions on Dallas County residents.
Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins (Fire Marshal Gump) and Covid Act Now model. https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/inaccurate-virus-models-are-panicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/
Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Phillip Huang and Covid Act Now model. https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/inaccurate-virus-models-are-panicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/
They recently extended the shelter in place order to mid-May, defying the state’s decision to end shelter in place at the end of April. Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins (Fire Marshal Gump) and Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Phillip Huang cited a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases that mysteriously began on May 1, 2020 and claimed this was not due to increased testing… But Dallas County will not release data on the number of tests being performed or recoveries.
Record coronavirus cases for 2nd consecutive day in Dallas County despite no test change
BY STEFAN STEVENSON
MAY 01, 2020 Dallas County reported a single-day high for the second consecutive day on Friday with 187 new coronavirus cases and two more deaths. […] “This increase in positive cases has occurred without any significant increase in testing capacity,” Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said in a release. “We have seen younger people dying from COVID-19 this week and today’s victims add to that list. All this illustrates why we all must make smart decisions and follow the science to flatten the curve.” […] Fort Worth Startlegram
Another COVID-19 Record for Dallas County; Masks Required, Enforcement Unclear
County judge amends county order to make Gov. Greg Abbott’s recommendations for reopened services a requirement in Dallas County
By Frank Heinz • Published May 4, 2020 Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins amended his Safer at Home order Monday to make Gov. Greg Abbott’s recommendations for businesses reopening in Dallas County to now be requirements. […] “For instance, when the governor says to the fullest extent possible wear a mask as a recommendation, we would say that’s a requirement,” Jenkins said. “When the governor says in a movie theater, let’s close every other row and put two seats of separation, that’s recommended, we say in Dallas county that’s required.” He told NBC 5 Monday that the county doesn’t plan to fine individuals, but that code inspectors could fine businesses. The amended order can be seen below. […] Dallas County is now reporting a total of 4,370 positive COVID-19 cases. Dallas County has not been releasing statistics on the number of recoveries in the county saying it’s not a surveillance variable being used nationally by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or state health departments. […] NBC5DFW
Since Dallas County won’t report daily testing data, only reporting positive tests and deaths, the claim that “This increase in positive cases has occurred without any significant increase in testing capacity,” can’t be verified. And the Dallas County claim sticks out like a sore thumb. The State of Texas publishes statewide testing data…
Texas and Dallas County COVID-19 testing data.
The rate of statewide testing clearly has been increasing, while the rate of positive tests has steadily been decreasing. Yet Dallas County claims that the positive tests spiked right when the state began reopening because the infection rate was still increasing, therefore, restrictions must be tightened. However, Jenkins claims that “the county doesn’t plan to fine individuals”… Except…
Dallas salon owner gets 7 days in jail for reopening in defiance of countywide restrictions
Published 2 days agoDallas DALLAS – A Far North Dallas salon owner will spend 7 days in jail after she refused to apologize for opening her business in defiance of countywide restrictions. A Dallas County judge offered Shelley Luther, the owner of Salon a la Mode, a deal: apologize for being selfish for having her salon open while everyone else’s were closed, pay a fine, shut down until Friday and she could avoid jail time. […] Fox 4 Texas
Shelley Luther wasn’t jailed for violating “countywide restrictions,” she was jailed for refusing to apologize to Dallas County officials. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick paid her fine, the Texas Supreme Court ordered her immediate release from jail and Governor Abbott has ensured that this sort of travesty doesn’t happen again.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--Low Electricity Demand and Renewables in the United Kingdom

As I write this at 08.26 on the morning of the 8th May , a Friday but a national holiday in the United Kingdom , we are waiting to see how National Grid ESO ( Electricity System Operator ) will cope with the combination of anticipated low demand for electricity and high solar output from the 12 GW of solar generation capacity connected to the Distribution Network .
Energy from this source reduces Transmission System demand at around midday and after , well before the evening peak , resulting in a novel and somewhat bizarre dual peak to the daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the following chart generated and published by National Grid itself , and describing load over the last seven days .
Figure 1 : Transmission System demand for electricity in the United Kingdom , from the earlier morning of Thursday 30 April to 08.22 Friday 8 May .
Source : National Grid .
Red arrow indicating trough in Transmission System Demand caused by embedded solar generation added by the author .
The operator ’ s problem is to keep sufficient conventional rotating plant online to provide stabilising inertia , while at the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must-run status , wind power and solar power , which do not contribute inertia .
In addition , with very low load of this nature that inertia must provided in chunks small enough to render manageable their sudden absence , as a result of a power station tripping for example .
At 1.2 GW , Sizewell B nuclear power station is rather large for the job .
However , National Grid ’ s task today is made that much easier by the fact that combined wind generation , on and offshore , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 GW in total , from a nationwide fleet of about 23 GW .
The solar forecast is also lowish , at just over 6 GW in the early afternoon , only fifty percent of the solar fleet ’ s peak capacity .
It will be interesting to discover , as we eventually may , how much of that low output is the result of low winds and cloud cover , and how much has been bought off the system with bilateral trades , and at what cost .
The post Low Electricity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

As I write this at 08.26 on the morning of the 8th May, a Friday but a national holiday in the United Kingdom, we are waiting to see how National Grid ESO (Electricity System Operator) will cope with the combination of anticipated low demand for electricity and high solar output from the 12 GW of solar generation capacity connected to the Distribution Network. Energy from this source reduces Transmission System demand at around midday and after, well before the evening peak, resulting in a novel and somewhat bizarre dual peak to the daily demand, as can be clearly seen in the following chart generated and published by National Grid itself, and describing load over the last seven days.
Figure 1: Transmission System demand for electricity in the United Kingdom, from the earlier morning of Thursday 30 April to 08.22 Friday 8 May. Source: National Grid. Red arrow indicating trough in Transmission System Demand caused by embedded solar generation added by the author.
The operator’s problem is to keep sufficient conventional rotating plant online to provide stabilising inertia, while at the same time making space for generators granted effective must-run status, wind power and solar power, which do not contribute inertia. In addition, with very low load of this nature that inertia must provided in chunks small enough to render manageable their sudden absence, as a result of a power station tripping for example. At 1.2 GW, Sizewell B nuclear power station is rather large for the job.
However, National Grid’s task today is made that much easier by the fact that combined wind generation, on and offshore, is expected to be not much more than 1 GW in total, from a nationwide fleet of about 23 GW. The solar forecast is also lowish, at just over 6 GW in the early afternoon, only fifty percent of the solar fleet’s peak capacity. It will be interesting to discover, as we eventually may, how much of that low output is the result of low winds and cloud cover, and how much has been bought off the system with bilateral trades, and at what cost.
Dr John Constable, GWPF Energy Editor.
The post Low Electricity Demand and Renewables in the United Kingdom appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 8, 2020 at 03:23AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--Mexico Stops Renewable Energy Projects

Mexico Stops Renewable Energy Projects

It sounds like a news report out of yet another dystopian novel : Mexico is halting grid connection for new solar and wind power projects .
In a world rushing to produce clean energy , Mexico has suddenly stood out like a sore thumb .
But , as usual , there ’ s more to the story .
The country ’ s National Energy Control Center , or Cenace , announced it would suspend grid connections of new solar and wind farms until further notice earlier this week .
The motivation behind the decision was the intermittency of solar and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the state-owned power market operator , could compromise Mexico ’ s energy security in difficult times .
“ The intermittent generation from wind and PV plants affects the reliability of the national electricity system , [ impacting ] the sufficiency , quality and continuity of power supply , ” Cenace wrote in a document setting out the rules of the country ’ s electricity market during the Covid-19 lockdown .
Naturally , the move was immediately attacked by the business community as an attempt by the government to interfere with private businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fully justified legal basis … Cenace has neglected its legal mandate to safeguard the efficiency of the national electric system and competition in the electricity market , which negatively impacts thousands of consumers in the commercial and industrial sector , ” business group Consejo Coordinador Empresarial , or CCE , said in a statement .
“ Like before , the private sector will take the necessary legal measures to preserve the level field and Mexicans ’ right to a healthy environment , ” the body added .
According to CCE , the move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and wind farms explicitly , is the latest push against renewables on the part of the government .
Conservative in its approach to the energy industry and protectionist of state-owned utilities , the Andres Manuel Lope Obrador government is , according to the critics , trying to stifle renewables to support state-owned Comision Federal de Electricidad , PV Magazine ’ s Emiliano Bellini and Jorge Zarco wrote .
Mexico ’ s president has made no secret of his attitude to renewable energy , which could be called condescending .
In a late March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turbines “ fans ” , saying they didn ’ t produce much energy .
He proceeded to reportedly say that the government will stop issuing permits for new wind projects that interfere with the environment and cause “ visual pollution ” .
Other reports of the same tweet said Obrador also downplayed the amount of electricity wind farms produce and said the companies that build them were private businesses that needed to be subsidized .
In short , one could safely say AMLO is not a fan of… fans .
There is , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While critics may be right that the decision to halt pre-connection tests for new solar and wind farms , it is a fact that Mexico—and Latin America as a whole—has been slow to build reasonable energy storage capacity , even after it has been identified as crucial for the long-term success of solar and wind power .
Intermittency of power generation is a real problem .
Its solution is energy storage .
Mexico got its first battery storage facility at the end of 2018 , at a car factory .
A year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that also features frequency regulation capabilities came online in Puebla .
Storage is slow in coming .
The post Mexico Stops Renewable Energy Projects appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

It sounds like a news report out of yet another dystopian novel: Mexico is halting grid connection for new solar and wind power projects.
In a world rushing to produce clean energy, Mexico has suddenly stood out like a sore thumb. But, as usual, there’s more to the story.
The country’s National Energy Control Center, or Cenace, announced it would suspend grid connections of new solar and wind farms until further notice earlier this week. The motivation behind the decision was the intermittency of solar and wind power generation, which, according to the state-owned power market operator, could compromise Mexico’s energy security in difficult times.
“The intermittent generation from wind and PV plants affects the reliability of the national electricity system, [impacting] the sufficiency, quality and continuity of power supply,” Cenace wrote in a document setting out the rules of the country’s electricity market during the Covid-19 lockdown.
Naturally, the move was immediately attacked by the business community as an attempt by the government to interfere with private businesses.
“Without solid technical motivation or fully justified legal basis … Cenace has neglected its legal mandate to safeguard the efficiency of the national electric system and competition in the electricity market, which negatively impacts thousands of consumers in the commercial and industrial sector,” business group Consejo Coordinador Empresarial, or CCE, said in a statement. “Like before, the private sector will take the necessary legal measures to preserve the level field and Mexicans’ right to a healthy environment,” the body added.
According to CCE, the move, which stops pre-connection tests for solar and wind farms explicitly, is the latest push against renewables on the part of the government. Conservative in its approach to the energy industry and protectionist of state-owned utilities, the Andres Manuel Lope Obrador government is, according to the critics, trying to stifle renewables to support state-owned Comision Federal de Electricidad, PV Magazine’s Emiliano Bellini and Jorge Zarco wrote.
Mexico’s president has made no secret of his attitude to renewable energy, which could be called condescending. In a late March tweet, the Mexican president called wind turbines “fans”, saying they didn’t produce much energy. He proceeded to reportedly say that the government will stop issuing permits for new wind projects that interfere with the environment and cause “visual pollution”. Other reports of the same tweet said Obrador also downplayed the amount of electricity wind farms produce and said the companies that build them were private businesses that needed to be subsidized. In short, one could safely say AMLO is not a fan of… fans.
There is, however, the issue of energy storage. While critics may be right that the decision to halt pre-connection tests for new solar and wind farms, it is a fact that Mexico—and Latin America as a whole—has been slow to build reasonable energy storage capacity, even after it has been identified as crucial for the long-term success of solar and wind power.
Intermittency of power generation is a real problem. Its solution is energy storage. Mexico got its first battery storage facility at the end of 2018, at a car factory. A year later, the first behind-the-meter battery facility that also features frequency regulation capabilities came online in Puebla. Storage is slow in coming.
The post Mexico Stops Renewable Energy Projects appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 8, 2020 at 03:02AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--We Are Winning The War On Climate-Related Diseases

London , 8 May : A new report from the Global Warming Policy Foundation reveals that there have been dramatic falls in climate-related mortality over the last 30 years .
The study ’ s author , Indur Goklany , says that these improvements have been seen in almost every category : “ You see improvement across the board , but most notably there has been a wholesale rolling back of the biggest killers like diarrhea and malaria.
” Goklany ’ s report makes strong criticisms of the Lancet Countdown , a review of climate-related mortality published by the prominent medical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information and used misleading figures in order to give a false impression of a worsening situation .
“ They highlight comparatively rare conditions , like dengue , which have worsened , while ignoring the wider picture , which is almost all good news .
It ’ s highly misleading.
” Indur Goklany is an independent scholar and author .
He was a member of the US delegation that established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) and helped develop its First Assessment Report .
He subsequently served as a US delegate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reviewer .
The Lancet Countdown on Climate Change : The need for context ( pdf ) The post We Are Winning The War On Climate-Related Diseases appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

New analysis shows dramatic improvement
London, 8 May: A new report from the Global Warming Policy Foundation reveals that there have been dramatic falls in climate-related mortality over the last 30 years. The study’s author, Indur Goklany, says that these improvements have been seen in almost every category:
“You see improvement across the board, but most notably there has been a wholesale rolling back of the biggest killers like diarrhea and malaria.”
Goklany’s report makes strong criticisms of the Lancet Countdown, a review of climate-related mortality published by the prominent medical journal, which he says has cherry-picked information and used misleading figures in order to give a false impression of a worsening situation.
“They highlight comparatively rare conditions, like dengue, which have worsened, while ignoring the wider picture, which is almost all good news. It’s highly misleading.”
Note for editors:
Indur Goklany is an independent scholar and author. He was a member of the US delegation that established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and helped develop its First Assessment Report. He subsequently served as a US delegate to the IPCC, and an IPCC reviewer.
The post We Are Winning The War On Climate-Related Diseases appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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May 8, 2020 at 02:34AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--Pointless Power: Without Massive & Endless Subsidies Wind Power Makes Absolutely No Sense

Warren Buffett said : “ We get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms .
That @ @ @ @ @ to build them .
They don ’ t make sense without the tax credit.
” @ @ @ @ @ that subsidies are the only reason anyone invests in these things .
Buffett might be @ @ @ @ @ at least [ … ]

Warren Buffett said: “We get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That’s the only reason to build them. They don’t make sense without the tax credit.” Buffett might have continued, that subsidies are the only reason anyone invests in these things. Buffett might be an opportunistic profiteer, but at least […]
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May 8, 2020 at 02:31AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--BORIS MUST CUT THE CLIMATE NOOSE IF WE ARE TO AVOID ECONOMIC NIGHTMARE

When economies emerge from the pandemic , aggressive climate policies should be the priority , according to Dominic Raab , the foreign secretary and Boris Johnson ’ s deputy .
Sounding like a modern day King Canute , he has urged governments to turn the tide on .
`` There ’ s no choice between cutting our emissions and growing our economy , '' Mr. Raab claims .
`` That ’ s a myth the UK has helped to shatter over the past decade . ''
In fact , the last decade saw Britain rack up its worst productivity performance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t tell us how we cut them by exporting our industrial base – emissions relating to imports from China are 276pc higher compared to 1997 .
The Government can forget about re-shoring vulnerable supply chains as it would push up our emissions .
France ’ s Emmanuel Macron , by contrast , is a good deal more honest , having described the choice on climate as profound and brutal .
Decarbonising inflicts costs on the poorest in society and it shrinks blue-collar job opportunities , worsening the North South regional divide .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ greenhouse gas emissions to net zero after a mere ninety-minute debate in the House of Commons last June .
Unlike the original 2008 Climate Change Act , the Government of net net and its analysis of the costs , of what it would to do the economy and an estimate of the potential climate benefits to Britain .
Lack of scientific and economic rigour and objectivity is par for the course development of net zero and adoption of the 1.5°C target .
In the run up to the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world ’ s first underwater cabinet meeting to dramatise the threat to low-lying islands from rising sea levels and lobby for the 1.5°C limit and incorporated in the 2015 Paris Agreement .
Yet there was no satisfactory scientific basis for the sinking island fable .
As Charles Darwin explained in the 1830s , coral atolls are formed by gentle subsidence of the seabed and , surprise , surprise , islands such as the Maldives have seen their land area expand .
After the politicians had decided on the policy , scientists , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels .
The IPCC had a problem .
Its existing 1.5°C carbon budget – the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted to keep global warming from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – was all but used up .
Obviously there was no point in agreeing a limit only to have it busted almost immediately .
Helped by computer climate models running too hot and over-predicting warming since 2000 , an IPCC lead author @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of more than doubling the 1.5°C budget and keeping the climate show on the road .
Although the IPCC only had medium confidence in its revised 1.5°C budget , it claimed high confidence that emissions had to reach net zero by 2050 .
Perhaps that ’ s because the IPCC sees net zero as providing , it says , the opportunity for `` intentional societal transformation '' and makes little secret of its ideological hostility to capitalism and economic growth .
Like the government , the IPCC doesn ’ t put a price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few numbers it produces are eye-popping , with costs ranging up to sixty times the hypothetical climate benefits estimated by the Obama administration .
Indeed , the IPCC concedes that net zero will hit the world ’ s poor hard with higher food prices and delay the transition to clean cooking , one of the biggest causes of avoidable deaths in poorer countries .
There is no ethical , economic or social justification for such policy overkill and its immense destruction of human welfare .
Fortunately net zero isn ’ t going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The West ’ s pre-pandemic emissions account for around one quarter of global emissions .
Buying into net zero will turn Europe into a continent of zombie economies , but the rest of the world isn ’ t going to follow .
The Prime Minister has only one chance to ensure rapid and from the lockdown – and that is to scrap every obstacle that stands in the way of economic growth , the biggest of all being the net zero climate noose .
If he fails , he and his government will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ruined and the Conservatives will be remembered for this policy-made economic disaster .
Keeping Boris ’ s commitment to net zero won ’ t be pretty .

When economies emerge from the pandemic, aggressive climate policies should be the priority, according to Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary and Boris Johnson’s deputy. Sounding like a modern day King Canute, he has urged governments to turn the tide on
. "There’s no choice between cutting our emissions and growing our economy," Mr. Raab claims. "That’s a myth the UK has helped to shatter over the past decade."
In fact, the last decade saw Britain rack up its worst productivity performance since the Industrial Revolution. Ministers don’t tell us how we cut them by exporting our industrial base – emissions relating to imports from China are 276pc higher compared to 1997. The Government can forget about re-shoring vulnerable supply chains as it would push up our emissions.
France’s Emmanuel Macron, by contrast, is a good deal more honest, having described the choice on climate as profound and brutal. Decarbonising inflicts costs on the poorest in society and it shrinks blue-collar job opportunities, worsening the North South regional divide.
Britain legislated its commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero after a mere ninety-minute debate in the House of Commons last June. Unlike the original 2008 Climate Change Act, the Government
of net net and its analysis of the costs, of what it would to do the economy and an estimate of the potential climate benefits to Britain.
Lack of scientific and economic rigour and objectivity is par for the course development of net zero and adoption of the 1.5°C target. In the run up to the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, the president of the Maldives held the world’s first underwater cabinet meeting to dramatise the threat to low-lying islands from rising sea levels and lobby for the 1.5°C limit and incorporated in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Yet there was no satisfactory scientific basis for the sinking island fable. As Charles Darwin explained in the 1830s, coral atolls are formed by gentle subsidence of the seabed and, surprise, surprise, islands such as the Maldives have seen their land area expand.
After the politicians had decided on the policy, scientists, in the shape of
were invited to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
The IPCC had a problem. Its existing 1.5°C carbon budget – the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted to keep global warming from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – was all but used up.
Obviously there was no point in agreeing a limit only to have it busted almost immediately. Helped by computer climate models running too hot and over-predicting warming since 2000, an IPCC lead author admitted, the IPCC found a way of more than doubling the 1.5°C budget and keeping the climate show on the road. Although the IPCC only had medium confidence in its revised 1.5°C budget, it claimed high confidence that emissions had to reach net zero by 2050.
Perhaps that’s because the IPCC sees net zero as providing, it says, the opportunity for "intentional societal transformation" and makes little secret of its ideological hostility to capitalism and economic growth. Like the government, the IPCC doesn’t put a price tag on net zero, but the few numbers it produces are eye-popping, with costs ranging up to sixty times the hypothetical climate benefits estimated by the Obama administration.
Indeed, the IPCC concedes that net zero will hit the world’s poor hard with higher food prices and delay the transition to clean cooking, one of the biggest causes of avoidable deaths in poorer countries. There is no ethical, economic or social justification for such policy overkill and its immense destruction of human welfare.
Fortunately net zero isn’t going to happen whatever politicians here might think. The West’s pre-pandemic emissions account for around one quarter of global emissions. Buying into net zero will turn Europe into a continent of zombie economies, but the rest of the world isn’t going to follow.
The Prime Minister has only one chance to ensure rapid and
from the lockdown – and that is to scrap every obstacle that stands in the way of economic growth, the biggest of all being the net zero climate noose. If he fails, he and his government will be toast, his political career be ruined and the Conservatives will be remembered for this policy-made economic disaster. Keeping Boris’s commitment to net zero won’t be pretty.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--Study: Global Warming Could Resurrect the Ice Age Indian Ocean El-Nino

Global warming models have predicted the emergence of an Indian Ocean version of the Pacific El-Nino / La-Nina cycle .
Paleo climate research suggests this was active during the last ice age .
by University of Texas at Austin Global warming is approaching a tipping point that during this century could reawaken an ancient climate pattern similar to El Niño in the Indian Ocean , new research led by scientists from The University of Texas at Austin has found .
“ Our research shows that raising or lowering the average global temperature just a few degrees triggers the Indian Ocean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other tropical oceans , with less uniform surface temperatures across the equator , more variable climate , and with its own El Niño , ” said lead author Pedro DiNezio , a climate scientist at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics , a research unit of the UT Jackson School of Geosciences .
According to the research , if current warming trends continue , an Indian Ocean El Niño could emerge as early as 2050 .
Computer simulations of climate change during the second half of the century show that global warming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surface temperatures , causing them to rise and fall year to year much more steeply than they do today .
The seesaw pattern is strikingly similar to El Niño , a climate phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather globally .
Co-author Kaustubh Thirumalai , who led the study that discovered evidence of the ice age Indian Ocean El Niño , said that the way glacial conditions affected wind and ocean currents in the Indian Ocean in the past is similar to the way global warming affects them in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which predicts an Indian Ocean El Nino ; Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean Presently , the Indian Ocean ( IO ) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations .
This may change under greenhouse warming , but the mechanisms remain uncertain , thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes .
Using climate model simulations , we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate variability capable of generating unprecedented sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations across the IO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under present-day conditions , becomes active in climate states with a shallow thermocline and vigorous upwelling , consistent with the predictions of continued greenhouse warming .
These predictions are supported by modeling and proxy evidence of an active mode during glacial intervals that favored such a state .
Because of its impact on hydrological variability , the emergence of such a mode would become a first-order source of climate-related risks for the densely populated IO rim .
The study which identified paleo-climate evidence of an ice age Indian Ocean El-nino ; An El @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Despite minor variations in sea surface temperature ( SST ) compared to other tropical regions , coupled ocean‐atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean cause widespread drought , wildfires , and flooding .
It is unclear whether changes in the Indian Ocean mean state can support stronger SST variability and climatic extremes .
Here we focus on the Last Glacial Maximum ( 19,000–21,000 years before present ) when background oceanic conditions could have been favorable for stronger variability .
Using individual foraminiferal analyses and climate model simulations , we find that seasonal and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Indian Ocean were much larger during this glacial period relative to modern conditions .
The increase in year‐to‐year variance is consistent with the emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability , which strongly resembles the Pacific El Niño and is currently not active in the Indian Ocean .
Assuming the studies are correct , if the Indian Ocean El-nino can occur in glacial conditions and warm conditions , clearly its something which can occur under a range of conditions , maybe even spontaneously , so promoting this prediction as a climate risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ocean El-Nino / La-Nina cycle does start , it won ’ t necessarily be a bad thing ; a good drenching for Western Australia on a regular basis might increase water availability in Australia ’ s arid interior .

The terrifying consequences of Western Australia getting a bit of rain. Murray Foubister / CC BY-SA
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Global warming models have predicted the emergence of an Indian Ocean version of the Pacific El-Nino / La-Nina cycle. Paleo climate research suggests this was active during the last ice age.
MAY 6, 2020
Climate change could reawaken Indian Ocean El Nino by University of Texas at Austin Global warming is approaching a tipping point that during this century could reawaken an ancient climate pattern similar to El Niño in the Indian Ocean, new research led by scientists from The University of Texas at Austin has found. … “Our research shows that raising or lowering the average global temperature just a few degrees triggers the Indian Ocean to operate exactly the same as the other tropical oceans, with less uniform surface temperatures across the equator, more variable climate, and with its own El Niño,” said lead author Pedro DiNezio, a climate scientist at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, a research unit of the UT Jackson School of Geosciences. According to the research, if current warming trends continue, an Indian Ocean El Niño could emerge as early as 2050. … Computer simulations of climate change during the second half of the century show that global warming could disturb the Indian Ocean’s surface temperatures, causing them to rise and fall year to year much more steeply than they do today. The seesaw pattern is strikingly similar to El Niño, a climate phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather globally. … Co-author Kaustubh Thirumalai, who led the study that discovered evidence of the ice age Indian Ocean El Niño, said that the way glacial conditions affected wind and ocean currents in the Indian Ocean in the past is similar to the way global warming affects them in the simulations. … Read more: https://phys.org/news/2020-05-climate-reawaken-indian-ocean-el.html
The abstract of the study which predicts an Indian Ocean El Nino;
Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean Pedro N. DiNezio1,*, Martin Puy1, Kaustubh Thirumalai2, Fei-Fei Jin3 and Jessica E. Tierney2 Science Advances 06 May 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 19, eaay7684
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay7684 Presently, the Indian Ocean (IO) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations. This may change under greenhouse warming, but the mechanisms remain uncertain, thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes. Using climate model simulations, we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate variability capable of generating unprecedented sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations across the IO. This mode, which is inhibited under present-day conditions, becomes active in climate states with a shallow thermocline and vigorous upwelling, consistent with the predictions of continued greenhouse warming. These predictions are supported by modeling and proxy evidence of an active mode during glacial intervals that favored such a state. Because of its impact on hydrological variability, the emergence of such a mode would become a first-order source of climate-related risks for the densely populated IO rim. Read more: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaay7684
The study which identified paleo-climate evidence of an ice age Indian Ocean El-nino;
An El Niño Mode in the Glacial Indian Ocean? Kaustubh Thirumalai, Pedro N. DiNezio, Jessica E. Tierney, Martin Puy, Mahyar Mohtadi First published: 22 July 2019 Despite minor variations in sea surface temperature (SST) compared to other tropical regions, coupled ocean‐atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean cause widespread drought, wildfires, and flooding. It is unclear whether changes in the Indian Ocean mean state can support stronger SST variability and climatic extremes. Here we focus on the Last Glacial Maximum (19,000–21,000 years before present) when background oceanic conditions could have been favorable for stronger variability. Using individual foraminiferal analyses and climate model simulations, we find that seasonal and interannual SST variations in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean were much larger during this glacial period relative to modern conditions. The increase in year‐to‐year variance is consistent with the emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability, which strongly resembles the Pacific El Niño and is currently not active in the Indian Ocean. Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019PA003669
Assuming the studies are correct, if the Indian Ocean El-nino can occur in glacial conditions and warm conditions, clearly its something which can occur under a range of conditions, maybe even spontaneously, so promoting this prediction as a climate risk seems pretty thin.
If an Indian Ocean El-Nino / La-Nina cycle does start, it won’t necessarily be a bad thing; a good drenching for Western Australia on a regular basis might increase water availability in Australia’s arid interior.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-05-08--CV depression compared with Great Frost of 1709

This illuminates what is at stake as the GreenLeft fight to prevent a return to a pre-Covid-19 economy .
Great @ @ @ @ @ are comparing the economic impact of coronavirus to Europe ’ s worst recession in history @ @ @ @ @ 1709 was towards the end of the Little Ice Age/Maunder Minimum .
The GreenLeft hate @ @ @ @ @ assisted slightly by minor changes to weather .
So expect the GreenLeft to fight to @ @ @ @ @ Govt spending .

This illuminates what is at stake as the GreenLeft fight to prevent a return to a pre-Covid-19 economy.
Great Frost 1709: why experts are comparing the economic impact of coronavirus to Europe’s worst recession in history 15Apr2020 The Great Frost of 1709 was towards the end of the Little Ice Age/Maunder Minimum. The GreenLeft hate that Western economic progress is assisted slightly by minor changes to weather. So expect the GreenLeft to fight to keep CV controls and increased Govt spending.
via Errors in IPCC climate science
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May 7, 2020 at 09:52PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-17--WILL WE ALL BE CHARGED TO DRIVE BY THE MILE?

UK plans to charge motorists for every mile they drive to fill £40billion tax hole left by the switch to electric cars Petrol and diesel vehicle ban to cause £40 billion black hole A similar plan was shelved by Labour ministers in 2007 amid fears drivers would be billed up to £1.50 a mile .
Rishi Sunak is considering plans to charge motorists for every mile they drive on Britain ’ s roads to fill a £40billion tax hole left by a push to electric cars , according to reports .
The Chancellor is reportedly ‘ very interested ’ in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scheme – which would steer motorists into a new ‘ pay-as-you-drive ’ type system .
Road pricing in England is limited to schemes such as the M6 Toll in the Midlands , the Dartford crossing on the M25 , London ’ s Congestion Zone and a handful of small tunnels and bridges .
But a national scheme is now being considered amid fears a switch to electric vehicles will leave a massive tax shortfall from the loss of key revenue raisers such as Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty , according to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid reports Boris Johnson wants to accelerate his green plans – including bringing forward a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars to 2030 .
A similar plan was shelved by Labour ministers in 2007 amid fears drivers would be billed up to £1.50 a mile .
A petition was signed by 1.8million motorists opposing the idea .

UK plans to charge motorists for every mile they drive to fill £40billion tax hole left by the switch to electric cars
Daily Mail, 16 November 2020
Petrol and diesel vehicle ban to cause £40 billion black hole
A similar plan was shelved by Labour ministers in 2007 amid fears drivers would be billed up to £1.50 a mile.
Rishi Sunak is considering plans to charge motorists for every mile they drive on Britain’s roads to fill a £40billion tax hole left by a push to electric cars, according to reports.
The Chancellor is reportedly ‘very interested’ in the idea of a national road pricing scheme – which would steer motorists into a new ‘pay-as-you-drive’ type system.
Road pricing in England is limited to schemes such as the M6 Toll in the Midlands, the Dartford crossing on the M25, London’s Congestion Zone and a handful of small tunnels and bridges.
But a national scheme is now being considered amid fears a switch to electric vehicles will leave a massive tax shortfall from the loss of key revenue raisers such as Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty, according to the Times. […]
It comes amid reports Boris Johnson wants to accelerate his green plans – including bringing forward a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars to 2030.
A similar plan was shelved by Labour ministers in 2007 amid fears drivers would be billed up to £1.50 a mile.
A petition was signed by 1.8million motorists opposing the idea.
Full story (£)
via climate science
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November 16, 2020 at 06:45PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--Locking Down See Oh Too

Locking Down See Oh Too

I ’ ve read comments from several folks claiming that despite the COVID lockdowns reducing emissions , there ’ s been no corresponding decrease in the airborne CO2 .
Here ’ s a typical claim , complete with graphic , saying that this proves that human emissions aren ’ t the reason for the gradual increase in airborne CO2 .
Hmmm … y ’ all who know me know that I ’ m a data guy .
So I thought I ’ d take a look at the situation .
I reasoned that a “ year-over-year ” comparison would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ graph above .
A year-over-year comparison is a graph showing , for each month in the record , how much the CO2 level increased over the same month in the previous year .
If we want to understand changes in CO2 , we need to look at changes in CO2 , not the absolute values the commenter used above .
Airborne CO2 has been growing at about 2.5 ppmv per year or so .
Figure 1 shows recent data detailing the year-over-year growth in airborne CO2 .
Figure 1 .
“ Year-over-year ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point shows how much the airborne CO2 increased over the same month a year previous .
Units are parts per million by volume ( ppmv ) .
Photo is of Mauna Loa in Hawaii , location of the CO2 measuring station .
Hmmm … didn ’ t really expect that the variation would be quite that large .
The big peak in the middle is from the El Nino/La Nina of 2015-2016 .
The peak and drop at the start if from the Nino/Nina of 2009-2010 .
What causes the other variations is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that the values vary from smallest to largest by no less than four hundred percent , from an annual increase of less than one part per million by volume ( ppmv ) to an increase of over four ppmv … a large natural variation .
Next , we have to ask the question the commenter who I quoted above didn ’ t ask—just how much would we expect the CO2 to change due to the lockdowns ?
Now , the author of the comment above says there ’ s been a 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that makes my Bad Number Detector start ringing .
In general , carbon emissions for the globe , as well as the resulting changes in global atmospheric CO2 levels , are a linear function of global Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) .
The GDP is the sum of all of the goods and services produced during the year .
And as you ’ d expect , if we increase the amount of stuff we make , we increase the CO2 emissions correspondingly .
( For the math inclined , global annual carbon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global GDP ( trillions of constant 2010 $ ) .
Looking around the web , I see estimates for the lockdown-caused drop in 2020 GDP of from 4.5 % up to 5.3 % .
And since emissions and the resulting atmospheric levels are a linear function of GDP , that would mean that the year-over-year CO2 increase should be smaller by something on the order of five percent .
This lets us calculate what the increase in CO2 would have been if there were no lockdowns .
Over 2020 you ’ d expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annual airborne CO2 increase , to have been 5 % greater if there had been no lockdowns .
So to be very conservative in our estimate , let ’ s say the lockdowns actually decreased emissions by twice that , or 10 % .
If we use ten percent as our figure , our results will be solid .
So … what would the Figure 1 graph above look like without that 10 % drop in 2020 emissions ?
Figure 2 shows that result .
Just for interest ’ s sake , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % difference in emissions would look like .
That ’ s four times the actual ~ 5 % change expected from the drop in GDP .
Of course , up to 2020 there is no change … Figure 2 .
As in Figure 1 , but with lines added showing a 10 % ( yellow ) and a 20 % ( orange ) increase in CO2 no-lockdown emissions would look like .
Again … hmmm .
Got ta say , in a system that variable , a 10 % or even a 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ background .
I mean , any one of those three lines is totally believable .
My main conclusion is that despite the huge , almost incalculable human cost of the lockdowns , the change in the rate of increase of CO2 is lost in the noise … which certainly doesn ’ t prove anything either way about whether the increase is human-caused .
My other conclusion is that this should give great pause to those who are blithely recommending totally restructuring the global economy to replace fossil fuels … look at the real-world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and look at the meaningless CO2 benefits in the graph above .
Not worth doing on any planet .
My best wishes to all in this most curious year of 2020 , can ’ t be over soon enough for me ,

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I’ve read comments from several folks claiming that despite the COVID lockdowns reducing emissions, there’s been no corresponding decrease in the airborne CO2. Here’s a typical claim, complete with graphic, saying that this proves that human emissions aren’t the reason for the gradual increase in airborne CO2.
The COVID shutdown reduced man’s emissions of CO2 by about 20%. Yet the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere then was almost EXACTLY what it was during preceding years.
What didn’t change was natural emissions. So much for Willis’s [saying] “it’s man made”, and settled science.
Hmmm … y’all who know me know that I’m a data guy. So I thought I’d take a look at the situation. I reasoned that a “year-over-year” comparison would be much more valuable than the more general graph above. A year-over-year comparison is a graph showing, for each month in the record, how much the CO2 level increased over the same month in the previous year. If we want to understand changes in CO2, we need to look at changes in CO2, not the absolute values the commenter used above. Airborne CO2 has been growing at about 2.5 ppmv per year or so. Figure 1 shows recent data detailing the year-over-year growth in airborne CO2.
Figure 1. “Year-over-year” analysis of airborne CO2. Each data point shows how much the airborne CO2 increased over the same month a year previous. Units are parts per million by volume (ppmv). Photo is of Mauna Loa in Hawaii, location of the CO2 measuring station.
Hmmm … didn’t really expect that the variation would be quite that large. The big peak in the middle is from the El Nino/La Nina of 2015-2016. The peak and drop at the start if from the Nino/Nina of 2009-2010. What causes the other variations is far from clear. What is clear is that the values vary from smallest to largest by no less than four hundred percent, from an annual increase of less than one part per million by volume (ppmv) to an increase of over four ppmv … a large natural variation.
Next, we have to ask the question the commenter who I quoted above didn’t ask—just how much would we expect the CO2 to change due to the lockdowns?
Now, the author of the comment above says there’s been a 20% decrease in 2020 emissions … but that makes my Bad Number Detector start ringing. In general, carbon emissions for the globe, as well as the resulting changes in global atmospheric CO2 levels, are a linear function of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is the sum of all of the goods and services produced during the year.
And as you’d expect, if we increase the amount of stuff we make, we increase the CO2 emissions correspondingly. (For the math inclined, global annual carbon emissions ≈ 6.3 Gtonnes + .4 * global GDP (trillions of constant 2010 $).
Looking around the web, I see estimates for the lockdown-caused drop in 2020 GDP of from 4.5% up to 5.3%. And since emissions and the resulting atmospheric levels are a linear function of GDP, that would mean that the year-over-year CO2 increase should be smaller by something on the order of five percent.
This lets us calculate what the increase in CO2 would have been if there were no lockdowns. Over 2020 you’d expect CO2 emissions, and thus the resulting annual airborne CO2 increase, to have been 5% greater if there had been no lockdowns.
So to be very conservative in our estimate, let’s say the lockdowns actually decreased emissions by twice that, or 10%. If we use ten percent as our figure, our results will be solid.
So … what would the Figure 1 graph above look like without that 10% drop in 2020 emissions? Figure 2 shows that result. Just for interest’s sake, I’ve also added what a 20% difference in emissions would look like. That’s four times the actual ~ 5% change expected from the drop in GDP.
Of course, up to 2020 there is no change …
Figure 2. As in Figure 1, but with lines added showing a 10% (yellow) and a 20% (orange) increase in CO2 no-lockdown emissions would look like.
Again … hmmm. Gotta say, in a system that variable, a 10% or even a 20% difference is not distinguishable from the background. I mean, any one of those three lines is totally believable.
Conclusions
My main conclusion is that despite the huge, almost incalculable human cost of the lockdowns, the change in the rate of increase of CO2 is lost in the noise … which certainly doesn’t prove anything either way about whether the increase is human-caused.
My other conclusion is that this should give great pause to those who are blithely recommending totally restructuring the global economy to replace fossil fuels … look at the real-world costs of the lockdowns all around you, and look at the meaningless CO2 benefits in the graph above. Not worth doing on any planet.
My best wishes to all in this most curious year of 2020, can’t be over soon enough for me,
w.
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iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--Go Back To Work–The Planet Needs You!

Go Back To Work–The Planet Needs You!

There ’ s no satisfying these lunatics , is there ?
For years they have been ordering us to work @ @ @ @ @ planet .
Now the bright sparks have cottoned on that it has made bugger all @ @ @ @ @ t be happy till we are back in the dark ages , with no technology @ @ @ @ @ NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
h/t stewgreen
https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1328399376797065216
There’s no satisfying these lunatics, is there?
For years they have been ordering us to work from home to save the planet. Now the bright sparks have cottoned on that it has made bugger all difference!
They won’t be happy till we are back in the dark ages, with no technology and no life.
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November 16, 2020 at 02:06PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--Road Charging Moves Closer

Road Charging Moves Closer

It was of course always inevitable : As I have been saying for years , the government would have little choice but to go for road charges to replace the lost fuel tax once EVs took over .
It was always inconceivable that electricity could be taxed in the same way , as it would generate massive energy poverty and would obviously discriminate against poorer non-car households .
Equally to raise £40bn from other taxes would be political suicide .
In my view , road charging could become the equivalent of the next government ’ s poll tax .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one tax for another , but so did the poll tax .
One particular consequence is that all cars would pay the same rate , disadvantaging drivers of smaller , more economic cars which would use less fuel .
In any event , it is inevitable that the revenue from road charging would quickly outstrip current revenue from fuel duty .
Quite apart from the administrative costs which would need to be recovered , it would be far too tempting to start ratcheting up rates on the flimsiest excuse , such as road @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stated aim of climate zealots in Parliament and elsewhere to cut the amount of travel we do in our cars .
What better way to do it than make it unaffordable for the average driver to use his car on a regular basis ?
Ironically , drivers of electric cars may be put out more than most .
Currently freed from paying fuel duty and vehicle excise duty , they will find themselves much worse off , once the cash cow provided by other motorists disappears .
And it ’ s not even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to run anyway .
According to WhichCar , the cost of recharging a Tesla in the States may be greater than refuelling a petrol car , if done on the Tesla supercharger network .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
It was of course always inevitable:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8951969/Rishi-Sunak-considers-plan-charge-motorists-mile-drive-Britains-roads.html
As I have been saying for years, the government would have little choice but to go for road charges to replace the lost fuel tax once EVs took over.
It was always inconceivable that electricity could be taxed in the same way, as it would generate massive energy poverty and would obviously discriminate against poorer non-car households.
Equally to raise £40bn from other taxes would be political suicide.
In my view, road charging could become the equivalent of the next government’s poll tax. In theory of course, it only swaps one tax for another, but so did the poll tax.
One particular consequence is that all cars would pay the same rate, disadvantaging drivers of smaller, more economic cars which would use less fuel.
In any event, it is inevitable that the revenue from road charging would quickly outstrip current revenue from fuel duty. Quite apart from the administrative costs which would need to be recovered, it would be far too tempting to start ratcheting up rates on the flimsiest excuse, such as road congestion.
It is after all the stated aim of climate zealots in Parliament and elsewhere to cut the amount of travel we do in our cars. What better way to do it than make it unaffordable for the average driver to use his car on a regular basis?
Ironically, drivers of electric cars may be put out more than most. Currently freed from paying fuel duty and vehicle excise duty, they will find themselves much worse off, once the cash cow provided by other motorists disappears.
And it’s not even as if their cars are much cheaper to run anyway. According to WhichCar, the cost of recharging a Tesla in the States may be greater than refuelling a petrol car, if done on the Tesla supercharger network.
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November 16, 2020 at 01:54PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--“Never seen so much snow this early in the season”

More than 2 feet of additional snow at Bogus Basin , Idaho .
After more than 2 feet of snow @ @ @ @ @ in the mountains , Bogus Basin announced Friday its hike park will be open again @ @ @ @ @ past five days , the park has seen an additional two feet of snow .
@ @ @ @ @ snow making efforts , Bogus Basin is ready for the season to open Nov. 27 @ @ @ @ @ release .
“ In my 32 years at Bogus Basin , I ’ ve never @ @ @ @ @ early in the season , ” said Nate Shake , director of Mountain Operations , @ @ @ @ @ Thanks to Laurel for this link Note : Bogus Basin Mountain Recreation Area is a @ @ @ @ @ miles north-northeast of the city of Boise .
The post “ Never seen so much @ @ @ @ @ season ” appeared first on Ice Age Now .

More than 2 feet of additional snow at Bogus Basin, Idaho.
After more than 2 feet of snow and more expected to come in the mountains, Bogus Basin announced Friday its hike park will be open again this weekend.
Over the past five days, the park has seen an additional two feet of snow. With the natural snow and snow making efforts, Bogus Basin is ready for the season to open Nov. 27, according to a news release.
“In my 32 years at Bogus Basin, I’ve never seen so much snow this early in the season,” said Nate Shake, director of Mountain Operations, in a news release.
https://www.kivitv.com/news/more-than-2-feet-of-snow-at-bogus-basin-opens-hike-park-for-this-weekend
Thanks to Laurel for this link
Note:
Bogus Basin Mountain Recreation Area is a ski area located sixteen road miles north-northeast of the city of Boise.
The post “Never seen so much snow this early in the season” appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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November 16, 2020 at 01:39PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--Why Worry about Warming? Cold is the Killer

“ We live now in the latter days of the Holocene Warm Period .
There may be short bursts of warming , but the big trend is down .
Temperature has been trending down for over 3,000 years .
A frigid period lies ahead.
” – Viv Forbes ____________ Why Worry about Warming ?
Cold is the Killer Green alarmists are fanning a firestorm of fear about man-made global warming .
The Little Ice Age saw crop failures , famine , migrations , invasions , disease and death Earth always cycles between warmth and cold .
Every recent warm period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) was a time of plenty for all life on Earth , whilst cold periods like the Little Ice Age saw crop failures , famine , migrations , invasions , disease and death .
Sea levels rise as ice sheets melt , and fall as they rebuild .
Coastal dwellers and offshore coral reefs must always migrate landward or seaward , or north/south , following the climatic environment they prefer .
Warming/cooling phases are triggered by solar system cycles which are often accompanied by volcanism .
These drivers are far more powerful than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70 % of Earth ’ s surface and dominate our weather and climate .
When the sun or the volcanic trenches and rings-of-fire warm the oceans , two things happen .
Firstly , water evaporates to form more clouds which shade , cool and rain on the Earth .
Secondly , CO2 plant food is expelled into the atmosphere , like CO2 bubbles leaving a warming beer .
This makes the oceans more alkaline .
With the additional moisture and CO2 plant food in the atmosphere , all plants benefit – forests expand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and marine plants flourish .
All animals that live on plants or on grazing animals are also well fed .
Soon farmers , graziers , foresters , fishermen , city dwellers and tax collectors welcome better times .
But climate is never still – changing climate and variable weather are normal conditions on Earth .
For the last million years , Earth has basked in recurring short Warm Periods ( about 12,000 years ) followed by long brutal Frigid Periods ( about 80,000 years ) .
Evidence from the Greenland Ice Cores shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peaked about 7,500 years ago and has been trending down for over 3,000 years .
There are always short term fluctuations but we are past the warming peak .
We live now in the latter days of the Holocene Warm Period .
There may be short bursts of warming , but the big trend is down .
A frigid period lies ahead .
As cyclic solar heating declines , land cools quicker than the deep oceans .
Moisture will still evaporate from the warm oceans and fall on the cooling land as rain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ again advance over the northern grain belts .
Continued evaporation triggers cooling of the oceans which then re-absorb atmospheric moisture and CO2 .
Plants always suffer greatly in the developing cold , dry , CO2-starved atmosphere .
And when plants suffer , animals and humans face hunger and famine .
Industries and cities powered by coal , oil , gas and nuclear power are largely immune to changing climate .
However we are making a huge climate gamble by demonising reliable hydro-carbons and nuclear power and rushing into intermittent , climate-dependent energy such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ humungous batteries ” .
The Holocene Warming is almost over .
After today ’ s bountiful warmth comes the cold , dry , hungry phase of Earth ’ s climate .
Fruitful warmth is no threat .
Bitter cold is the real menace .
“ Global Warming – a boon to Humans and Other Animals ” And “ Climate of Fear ” by Thomas Gale Moore Hoover Institution .
https : //www.hoover.org/site-search ?
keyword=thomas+gale+moore Cold Kills , and Green Energy Does More Harm than Good : https : //saltbushclub.com/2020/10/26/cold-kills/ Humungous batteries will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Tesla : https : //reneweconomy.com.au/humungous-batteries-will-be-mainstream-feature-of-renewable-grids-says-tesla-82071/ Gone with the wind : why electricity shortages are becoming the norm : https : //spectator.com.au/2020/11/gone-with-the-wind-why-electricity-shortages-are-becoming-the-norm/ The post Why Worry about Warming ?
Cold is the Killer appeared first on Ice Age Now .

“We live now in the latter days of the Holocene Warm Period. There may be short bursts of warming, but the big trend is down. Temperature has been trending down for over 3,000 years. A frigid period lies ahead.”
– Viv Forbes
____________
Why Worry about Warming? Cold is the Killer
by Viv Forbes
14 Nov 2020
Green alarmists are fanning a firestorm of fear about man-made global warming.
The Little Ice Age saw crop failures, famine, migrations, invasions, disease and death
Earth always cycles between warmth and cold. Every recent warm period (Medieval Warming, Roman Warming etc) was a time of plenty for all life on Earth, whilst cold periods like the Little Ice Age saw crop failures, famine, migrations, invasions, disease and death.
Sea levels rise as ice sheets melt, and fall as they rebuild. Coastal dwellers and offshore coral reefs must always migrate landward or seaward, or north/south, following the climatic environment they prefer.
Warming/cooling phases triggered by solar cycles
Warming/cooling phases are triggered by solar system cycles which are often accompanied by volcanism. These drivers are far more powerful than any human influences.
Oceans cover over 70% of Earth’s surface and dominate our weather and climate. When the sun or the volcanic trenches and rings-of-fire warm the oceans, two things happen. Firstly, water evaporates to form more clouds which shade, cool and rain on the Earth. Secondly, CO2 plant food is expelled into the atmosphere, like CO2 bubbles leaving a warming beer. This makes the oceans more alkaline.
Plants benefit from additional CO2
With the additional moisture and CO2 plant food in the atmosphere, all plants benefit – forests expand, deserts shrink and grasslands, crops and marine plants flourish. All animals that live on plants or on grazing animals are also well fed. Soon farmers, graziers, foresters, fishermen, city dwellers and tax collectors welcome better times.
Long brutal Frigid Periods
But climate is never still – changing climate and variable weather are normal conditions on Earth. For the last million years, Earth has basked in recurring short Warm Periods (about 12,000 years) followed by long brutal Frigid Periods (about 80,000 years).
A frigid period lies ahead
Evidence from the Greenland Ice Cores shows that Earth’s 1000-year average temperature peaked about 7,500 years ago and has been trending down for over 3,000 years. There are always short term fluctuations but we are past the warming peak. We live now in the latter days of the Holocene Warm Period. There may be short bursts of warming, but the big trend is down. A frigid period lies ahead.
As cyclic solar heating declines, land cools quicker than the deep oceans. Moisture will still evaporate from the warm oceans and fall on the cooling land as rain and snow. Snow and ice will again advance over the northern grain belts. Continued evaporation triggers cooling of the oceans which then re-absorb atmospheric moisture and CO2.
Animals and humans face hunger and famine
Plants always suffer greatly in the developing cold, dry, CO2-starved atmosphere. And when plants suffer, animals and humans face hunger and famine. Industries and cities powered by coal, oil, gas and nuclear power are largely immune to changing climate. However we are making a huge climate gamble by demonising reliable hydro-carbons and nuclear power and rushing into intermittent, climate-dependent energy such as wind and solar propped up by “humungous batteries”.
The Holocene Warming is almost over.
After today’s bountiful warmth comes the cold, dry, hungry phase of Earth’s climate.
Fruitful warmth is no threat. Bitter cold is the real menace.
Viv Forbes
Washpool Qld, Australia.
_________
Further Reading
“The Inconvenient Skeptic” 2011 by John Kehr:
http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/the-book/
“Global Warming – a boon to Humans and Other Animals”
And “Climate of Fear” by Thomas Gale Moore
Hoover Institution.
https://www.hoover.org/site-search?keyword=thomas+gale+moore
Cold Kills, and Green Energy Does More Harm than Good:
https://saltbushclub.com/2020/10/26/cold-kills/
Climate Change and Health:
http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Climate-Change-and-Health-WP-FINAL.pdf
Humungous batteries will be mainstream feature of renewable grids, says Tesla:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/humungous-batteries-will-be-mainstream-feature-of-renewable-grids-says-tesla-82071/
Deserts Greening from rising CO2:
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2013/Deserts-greening-from-rising-CO2
Gone with the wind: why electricity shortages are becoming the norm:
https://spectator.com.au/2020/11/gone-with-the-wind-why-electricity-shortages-are-becoming-the-norm/
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November 16, 2020 at 01:11PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-11-16--Heavy snowfall in Afghanistan – Videos

Heavy snowfall in Afghanistan – Videos

Snow is falling , so much like stars … It is snowing in Kabul .
Nov 14 , 2020 https : //twitter.com/HossainiFatimah/status/1327587440815714304 KABUL : Date 11/15/2020 Ministry of Education ( MoE ) decided to shut primary schools in cold-climate areas next week due to severe cold and premature snow and rainfall in the country , authorities announced Sunday .
According to the authorities , the primary schools ( 1st-6th grade ) will close on November 21st , while the secondary and high schools of the cold-climate areas will shut on 5 December due to the premature arrival of the winter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ //menafn.com/1101129486/Afghanistan-Ministry-to-close-schools-next-week-due-to-severe-cold-weather Heavy snowfall in Afghanistan 15 Nov 2020 Kabul and a number of other provinces have witnessed heavy snowfall in the second month of the autumn season .
According to the Meteorological Department , more than 20 provinces are reporting heavy snowfall .
The department posted on Facebook Sunday that the waves of rain and snow will move completely from Nuristan , Kunar , and Badakhshan provinces this afternoon .
The Meteorological Agency warns that the coming winter will be severely cold in the country .
Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for these links @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Videos appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Premature snowfall. Ministry to close schools due to severe cold.
Video on Afghanistan View, 14 Nov 2020
Snow is falling, so much like stars …
It is snowing in Kabul. Nov 14, 2020
https://twitter.com/HossainiFatimah/status/1327587440815714304
Video recorded n 15 Nov 2020:
Afghanistan- Ministry to close schools due to severe cold weather
KABUL: Date 11/15/2020 Ministry of Education (MoE) decided to shut primary schools in cold-climate areas next week due to severe cold and premature snow and rainfall in the country, authorities announced Sunday.
According to the authorities, the primary schools (1st-6th grade) will close on November 21st, while the secondary and high schools of the cold-climate areas will shut on 5 December due to the premature arrival of the winter season in the country.
https://menafn.com/1101129486/Afghanistan-Ministry-to-close-schools-next-week-due-to-severe-cold-weather
Heavy snowfall in Afghanistan
15 Nov 2020
Kabul and a number of other provinces have witnessed heavy snowfall in the second month of the autumn season.
According to the Meteorological Department, more than 20 provinces are reporting heavy snowfall.
The department posted on Facebook Sunday that the waves of rain and snow will move completely from Nuristan, Kunar, and Badakhshan provinces this afternoon.
The Meteorological Agency warns that the coming winter will be severely cold in the country.
https://menafn.com/1101128008/Afghanistan-Heavy-Snowfalls-Activate-Power-Turbines-in-Mahipar-Dam
Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for these links
The post Heavy snowfall in Afghanistan – Videos appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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November 16, 2020 at 12:50PM