iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers

Over 40,000 fatal car accidents per year in the U.S. Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers .
Contrast and compare .
From CDC ( https : //www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html ) COVID-19 : U.S. at a Glance* • Total cases : 1,629 • Total deaths : 41 • Jurisdictions reporting cases : 47 ( 46 states and District of Columbia ) ( * Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21 , 2020 ( up to March 16 ) , with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Japan . )
~~~~~~~ In total to date for the USA , more people will die in vehicle accidents than by COVID-19 virus .
In the USA with about 220 million vehicle drivers , on average , every 50 minutes someone dies from DUI ( Driving a vehicle while Under the Influence [ of alcohol or drugs ] ) .
That ’ s 29 deaths per day !
These are very preventable deaths !
( From https : //carsurance.net/blog/car-accident-statistics/ ) • Over 40,000 fatal car accidents per year in the U.S. • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ die in car accidents .
• On average , 2 million drivers experience a permanent injury every year .
• Almost 8,000 people are killed in traffic accidents involving drivers aged 16-20 .
• The most common causes of death on the road are drunk driving ( 40 % ) , speeding ( 30 % ) , and irresponsible driving ( 33 % ) .
• Some 58 % of fatal car accidents involve only one vehicle , and 38 % are caused by a traffic collision .
• When it comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occurred in Texas and California during 2018 .
• Each year , more than 1,600 children younger than 15 die in traffic accidents .
These are very preventable deaths .
Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers .
Now that would be alarming !
The post Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers appeared first on Ice Age Now .

Over 40,000 fatal car accidents per year in the U.S.
_________________
Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers.
tomOmason
Contrast and compare.
From CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html )
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
• Total cases: 1,629
• Total deaths: 41
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)
(* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020 (up to March 16), with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. )
~~~~~~~
In total to date for the USA, more people will die in vehicle accidents than by COVID-19 virus.
In the USA with about 220 million vehicle drivers, on average, every 50 minutes someone dies from DUI (Driving a vehicle while Under the Influence[of alcohol or drugs]). That’s 29 deaths per day!
These are very preventable deaths! (From https://carsurance.net/blog/car-accident-statistics/ )
• Over 40,000 fatal car accidents per year in the U.S.
• Each day, more than 90 Americans die in car accidents.
• On average, 2 million drivers experience a permanent injury every year.
• Almost 8,000 people are killed in traffic accidents involving drivers aged 16-20.
• The most common causes of death on the road are drunk driving (40%), speeding (30%), and irresponsible driving (33%).
• Some 58% of fatal car accidents involve only one vehicle, and 38% are caused by a traffic collision.
• When it comes to fatal car accidents by state, most occurred in Texas and California during 2018.
• Each year, more than 1,600 children younger than 15 die in traffic accidents.
These are very preventable deaths.
Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers.
Now that would be alarming!
The post Maybe we should quarantine all vehicle drivers appeared first on Ice Age Now.
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March 17, 2020 at 02:55PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--As The Coronavirus Pandemic Takes Hold, We Are Making Decisions Without Reliable Data

In the absence of data , prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns .
Unfortunately , we do not know if these measures work .
he current coronavirus disease , Covid-19 , has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic .
But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco .
At a time when everyone needs better information , from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing , we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected .
Better information is needed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and to monitor their impact .
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries .
If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable .
How long , though , should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated ?
How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm ?
Vaccines or affordable treatments take many months ( or even years ) to develop and test properly .
Given such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are entirely unknown.Support STAT : If you value our coronavirus coverage , please consider making a one-time contribution to support our journalism .
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable .
Given the limited testing to date , some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed .
We don ’ t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300 .
Three months after the outbreak emerged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population .
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19 .
Reported case fatality rates , like the official 3.4 % rate from the World Health Organization , cause horror — and are meaningless .
Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes .
As most health systems have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even worsen in the near future .
The one situation where an entire , closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers .
The case fatality rate there was 1.0 % , but this was a largely elderly population , in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher .
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population , the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125 % .
But since this estimate is based on extremely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower ( 0.025 % ) to five times higher ( 0.625 % ) .
It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later , and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population .
Adding these extra sources of uncertainty , reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done .
A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 % is lower than seasonal influenza .
If that is the true rate , locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational .
It ’ s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat .
Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat , the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies .
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pointing to the high rate in elderly people .
However , even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8 % when they infect elderly people in nursing homes .
In fact , such “ mild ” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year , and account for 3 % to 11 % of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter .
These “ mild ” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing .
Instead , they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year .
Although successful surveillance systems have long existed for influenza , the disease is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases .
In the U.S. , for example , so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 ( 20.7 % ) have tested positive for influenza .
In the same period , the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths .
Note the uncertainty about influenza-like illness deaths : a 2.5-fold range , corresponding to tens of thousands of deaths .
Every year , some of these deaths are due to influenza and some to other viruses , like common-cold coronaviruses .
In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season , influenza viruses were detected in 18 % of the specimens , while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from viral respiratory pathogens , more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed .
A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient ’ s demise .
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3 % in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1 % of the U.S. population gets infected ( about 3.3 million people ) , this would translate to about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge number , but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “ influenza-like illness.
” If we had not known about a new virus out there , and had not checked individuals with PCR tests , the number of total deaths due to “ influenza-like illness ” would not seem unusual this year .
At most , we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average .
The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680 , 6,800 , 68,000 , 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe .
Is that a realistic scenario , or bad science fiction ?
How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop ?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new infections .
Sadly , that ’ s information we don ’ t have .
In the absence of data , prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns .
Unfortunately , we do not know if these measures work .
School closures , for example , may reduce transmission rates .
But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow , if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members , if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work , and more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease .
This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open , at least until as I write this .
In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic , we don ’ t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic .
Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound — in theory .
A visual that has become viral in media and social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment .
Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed , the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks , strokes , trauma , bleeding , and the like that are not adequately treated .
If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the heath system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness , then flattening the curve may make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during a short , acute phase , the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period .
That ’ s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity .
The post As The Coronavirus Pandemic Takes Hold , We Are Making Decisions Without Reliable Data appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work.
he current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
Vaccines or affordable treatments take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. Given such timelines, the consequences of long-term lockdowns are entirely unknown.Support STAT: If you value our coronavirus coverage, please consider making a one-time contribution to support our journalism.
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11%of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.
These “mild” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.
Although successful surveillance systems have long existed for influenza, the disease is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases. In the U.S., for example, so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 (20.7%) have tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths.
Note the uncertainty about influenza-like illness deaths: a 2.5-fold range, corresponding to tens of thousands of deaths. Every year, some of these deaths are due to influenza and some to other viruses, like common-cold coronaviruses.
In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season, influenza viruses were detected in 18% of the specimens, while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise.
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.
Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease.
This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open, at least until as I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic.
Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound — in theory. A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment.
Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the heath system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.
The post As The Coronavirus Pandemic Takes Hold, We Are Making Decisions Without Reliable Data appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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March 17, 2020 at 02:44PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Coronavirus Gives Us A Glimpse Of The Future

As London falls silent , there are a few news items to pull together , all of course coronavirus connected .
In no particular order : First , Marc Morano brings news of Christiana Figueres ’ interview on Channel 4 News : Channel 4 ’ s Krishnan Guru-Murthy asked former UN chief Figueres : “ Is there any sense that this could be self-controlling — that as we see economic growth possibly slowing down around the world , because of coronavirus — that ’ s actually good for the climate ?
” Christiana Figueres replied : “ Well , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the other side of this — right ?
It may be good for climate .
But I think — because there is less trade , there ’ s less travel , there ’ s less commerce.
” Weaponizing Coronavirus : Figueres also said : Expect more disease outbreaks ‘ if we continue to deny , delude and delay on climate change ’ Figueres also used the coronavirus as an opportunity to plug the UN ’ s campaign to reduce and stop meat-eating around the world .
“ If we continue to eat animals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and being the genesis new diseases that we have not seen before , ” Figueres explained .
There are a number of issues here : 1 ) She talks of “ slower growth ” , which ultimately means no improvements in living standards for the world ’ s poor .
In reality , of course , her policies won ’ t just lead to slower growth , but a global recession .
2 ) Quite what diseases she has in mind if we deny climate change is a mystery .
3 ) As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in China , and indeed many other parts of the third world , because people there are too poor to buy anything else .
They would naturally love to be able to buy their food from Aldi instead , but that would involve all of the carbon spewing technology , production and transport she loathes .
Maybe she expects them to eat bamboo shoots instead .
One of her fellow travelling eco-loonies goes even further : Climate activist Astrophysicist & Philosopher Martín López Corredoira on coronavirus and its impacts : “ Neither Greenpeace @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other individual or collective organization have achieved so much in favor of the health of the planet in such a short time.
” “ There are also positive aspects .
As said by the proverb , every cloud has a silver lining…We see a reduced production in Chinese industry , which has resulted in a huge drop in China ’ s pollution.
” Venice…is now deathly silent .
What a respite for the Venetians !
What good news for the ecologists and tourist-haters !
This positively affects the reduction of CO2 emission and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holiday and professional conference tourism…It is certainly not very good for the economy in general , but it is fantastic for the environment.
” Meanwhile the eco-rabble at XR take a slightly different stance : Drastic measures taken to stem the coronavirus outbreak demonstrate that climate change can be tackled , Extinction Rebellion has said .
The environmental group pointed to a media report on how pollution has dropped in China as attempts to stop the virus spreading led to factories being shut down .
According to the report by the Independent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least partly down to the economic slowdown brought on by efforts to contain coronavirus .
“ Closing industrial plants and asking people to stop at home has led to sharp drops in the burning of fossil fuels — a key cause of the climate crisis — in the world ’ s largest greenhouse gas producer , ” the report states .
Reacting on its Facebook page , Extinction Rebellion wrote : “ Proof that the climate and ecological emergency is solvable and that the solution has nothing to do with population .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s more about a not fit for purpose economy .
It ’ s more about how we organize as a society and decide how we want to live .
“ We can withdraw our consent from this ecocidal , oppressive and destructive system , and decide to live in a different way .
All together .
Another world is possible.
” XR don ’ t explain how millions of Chinese workers are supposed to actually feed , house , clothe and otherwise support their families , without any pay coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Or how the country can return to pre industrial times without hundreds of millions dying .
Then we have Slow Joe coming to along to offer his solution to the “ Climate Crisis ” : Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden made extreme remarks during CNN ’ s presidential debate on Sunday night , suggesting that he would end the oil industry ’ s ability to drill , would ban new fracking projects , and would take millions of cars off the road .
During a debate in December , Biden indicated that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thousands of oil and natural gas jobs .
Which all rather neatly brings up full circle to coronavirus and the lockdown of much of the European economy .
Because if Figueres , Biden and the eco-rabble get their way , the current economic dislocation will look like a Xmas party in comparison .
Forget about “ slower growth ” , the policies proposed , not least in the UK , will shut down whole swathes of western economies , massively cut standards of living , lead to mass unemployment and leave many towns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be today .
And not for a few weeks or months , but for years .
That is the real wake up call from the coronavirus .
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood
As London falls silent, there are a few news items to pull together, all of course coronavirus connected.
In no particular order:
First, Marc Morano brings news of Christiana Figueres’ interview on Channel 4 News:
Channel 4’s Krishnan Guru-Murthy asked former UN chief Figueres: “Is there any sense that this could be self-controlling — that as we see economic growth possibly slowing down around the world, because of coronavirus — that’s actually good for the climate?” Christiana Figueres replied: “Well, that is, ironically, of course, the other side of this — right? It may be good for climate. But I think — because there is less trade, there’s less travel, there’s less commerce.” Weaponizing Coronavirus: Figueres also said: Expect more disease outbreaks ‘if we continue to deny, delude and delay on climate change’ Figueres also used the coronavirus as an opportunity to plug the UN’s campaign to reduce and stop meat-eating around the world. “If we continue to eat animals, we will actually be poisoning ourselves and being the genesis new diseases that we have not seen before,” Figueres explained.
https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/03/03/former-un-climate-chief-christiana-figueres-slower-economic-growth-from-coronavirus-may-be-good-for-climate-there-is-less-trade-less-travel-less-commerce/
There are a number of issues here:
1) She talks of “slower growth”, which ultimately means no improvements in living standards for the world’s poor. In reality, of course, her policies won’t just lead to slower growth, but a global recession.
2) Quite what diseases she has in mind if we deny climate change is a mystery.
3) As for meat eating, wet markets exist in China, and indeed many other parts of the third world, because people there are too poor to buy anything else.
They would naturally love to be able to buy their food from Aldi instead, but that would involve all of the carbon spewing technology, production and transport she loathes.
Maybe she expects them to eat bamboo shoots instead.
One of her fellow travelling eco-loonies goes even further:
Climate activist Astrophysicist & Philosopher Martín López Corredoira on coronavirus and its impacts: “Neither Greenpeace, nor Greta Thunberg, nor any other individual or collective organization have achieved so much in favor of the health of the planet in such a short time.” “There are also positive aspects. As said by the proverb, every cloud has a silver lining…We see a reduced production in Chinese industry, which has resulted in a huge drop in China’s pollution.” Venice…is now deathly silent. What a respite for the Venetians! What good news for the ecologists and tourist-haters! This positively affects the reduction of CO2 emission and the whole wave the destruction associated with holiday and professional conference tourism…It is certainly not very good for the economy in general, but it is fantastic for the environment.”
https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/03/05/climate-activists-celebrating-the-benefits-of-coronavirus-it-is-fantastic-for-the-environment-economic-slowdown-is-good-news-for-the-ecologists/
Meanwhile the eco-rabble at XR take a slightly different stance:
Drastic measures taken to stem the coronavirus outbreak demonstrate that climate change can be tackled, Extinction Rebellion has said.
The environmental group pointed to a media report on how pollution has dropped in China as attempts to stop the virus spreading led to factories being shut down.
According to the report by the Independent, NASA said the drop in pollution was at least partly down to the economic slowdown brought on by efforts to contain coronavirus.
“Closing industrial plants and asking people to stop at home has led to sharp drops in the burning of fossil fuels — a key cause of the climate crisis — in the world’s largest greenhouse gas producer,” the report states.
Reacting on its Facebook page, Extinction Rebellion wrote: “Proof that the climate and ecological emergency is solvable and that the solution has nothing to do with population.
“It’s more about consumption. It’s more about a not fit for purpose economy. It’s more about how we organize as a society and decide how we want to live.
“We can withdraw our consent from this ecocidal, oppressive and destructive system, and decide to live in a different way. All together. Another world is possible.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-coronavirus-exctinction-rebellion-134633742.html
XR don’t explain how millions of Chinese workers are supposed to actually feed, house, clothe and otherwise support their families, without any pay coming in for the rest of their lives.
Or how the country can return to pre industrial times without hundreds of millions dying.
Then we have Slow Joe coming to along to offer his solution to the “Climate Crisis”:
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden made extreme remarks during CNN’s presidential debate on Sunday night, suggesting that he would end the oil industry’s ability to drill, would ban new fracking projects, and would take millions of cars off the road.
During a debate in December, Biden indicated that he was willing to cut hundreds of thousands of oil and natural gas jobs.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-goes-extreme-give-oil-industry-no-ability-to-continue-to-drill-take-millions-of-cars-off-the-road?itm_source=parsely-api
Which all rather neatly brings up full circle to coronavirus and the lockdown of much of the European economy.
Because if Figueres, Biden and the eco-rabble get their way, the current economic dislocation will look like a Xmas party in comparison.
Forget about “slower growth”, the policies proposed, not least in the UK, will shut down whole swathes of western economies, massively cut standards of living, lead to mass unemployment and leave many towns and cities as zombiefied as London appears to be today. And not for a few weeks or months, but for years.
That is the real wake up call from the coronavirus.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
https://ift.tt/2TYgpbu
March 17, 2020 at 02:36PM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--How horses can save the permafrost

How horses can save the permafrost

Permafrost soils in the Arctic are thawing .
As they do , large additional quantities of greenhouse gases could be released , accelerating climate change .
In Russia , experiments are now being conducted in which herds of horses , bison and reindeer are being used to combat this effect .
A study from Universität Hamburg , just released in the Nature journal Scientific Reports , now shows for the first time that this method could indeed significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils .
Theoretically speaking , 80 percent of all permafrost soils around the globe could be preserved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now been demonstrated by Prof. Christian Beer from Universität Hamburg ’ s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability ( CEN ) , an expert on the permanently frozen soils found throughout the Northern Hemisphere .
If no action is taken to prevent it , half of the world ’ s permafrost will thaw by 2100 .
The new study explores a somewhat unconventional countermeasure : resettling massive herds of large herbivores .
The inspiration came from Pleistocene Park in Chersky , a city in northeast Russia .
Russian scientists Sergey and Nikita @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , reindeer and horses there more than 20 years ago , and have been observing the effects on the soil ever since .
In winter the permafrost in Chersky is ca .
minus 10 degrees Celsius ; at temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius , the air is far colder .
Thanks to ample snowfall , there is a thick layer of snow cover that insulates the ground from the frigid air , keeping it “ warm.
” When the snow cover is scattered and compressed thanks to the grazing animals ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dramatically reduced , intensifying the freezing of the permafrost .
“ This type of natural manipulation in ecosystems that are especially relevant for the climate system has barely been researched to date – but holds tremendous potential , ” Beer says .
The long-term experiments conducted in Russia show that , when 100 animals are resettled in a 1 km2 area , they cut the mean snow cover height in half .
Christian Beer and his colleagues wanted to determine what effect this could produce when applied to all Arctic permafrost soils as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ influence , at least in theory , even be enough to mitigate intensive warming of the atmosphere and stop the thawing of the permafrost ?
For the purposes of his study , Beer used a special climate model that can simulate such temperature processes on the land surface over the course of an entire year .
The results show : if emissions continue to rise unchecked ( scenario RCP 8.5 in the latest IPCC Assessment Report ) , we can expect to see a 3.8-degree Celsius increase in permafrost temperatures , which would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In contrast , with animal herds the ground would only warm by ca .
2.1 degrees – 44 percent less , which would be enough to preserve 80 percent of the current soils , as the model shows .
“ It may be utopian to imaging resettling wild animal herds in all the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere , ” the Earth system expert concedes .
“ But the results indicate that using fewer animals would still produce a cooling effect .
What we ’ ve shown here is a promising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ permanently frozen soils , and with it , the decomposition and release of the enormous carbon stockpiles they contain.
” Beer and his team also considered potential side effects of the approach .
For example , in summer the animals destroy the cooling moss layer on the ground , which warms it additionally .
This aspect was also taken into account in the simulations , but the positive impact of the snow effect in winter is several times greater .
As a next step , Beer plans to collaborate with biologists , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually spread across the landscape .
Original article : Beer C , Zimov N , Olofsson J , Porada P , Zimov S : Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density ( 2020 ) ; Scientific Reports

New mitigation strategy bears great potential
University of Hamburg
Permafrost soils in the Arctic are thawing. As they do, large additional quantities of greenhouse gases could be released, accelerating climate change. In Russia, experiments are now being conducted in which herds of horses, bison and reindeer are being used to combat this effect. A study from Universität Hamburg, just released in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, now shows for the first time that this method could indeed significantly slow the loss of permafrost soils.
Theoretically speaking, 80 percent of all permafrost soils around the globe could be preserved until the year 2100, as has now been demonstrated by Prof. Christian Beer from Universität Hamburg’s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), an expert on the permanently frozen soils found throughout the Northern Hemisphere. If no action is taken to prevent it, half of the world’s permafrost will thaw by 2100. The new study explores a somewhat unconventional countermeasure: resettling massive herds of large herbivores.
The inspiration came from Pleistocene Park in Chersky, a city in northeast Russia. Russian scientists Sergey and Nikita Zimov resettled herds of bison, wisents, reindeer and horses there more than 20 years ago, and have been observing the effects on the soil ever since. In winter the permafrost in Chersky is ca. minus 10 degrees Celsius; at temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius, the air is far colder. Thanks to ample snowfall, there is a thick layer of snow cover that insulates the ground from the frigid air, keeping it “warm.” When the snow cover is scattered and compressed thanks to the grazing animals’ stamping hooves, its insulating effect is dramatically reduced, intensifying the freezing of the permafrost. “This type of natural manipulation in ecosystems that are especially relevant for the climate system has barely been researched to date – but holds tremendous potential,” Beer says.
The long-term experiments conducted in Russia show that, when 100 animals are resettled in a 1 km2 area, they cut the mean snow cover height in half. Christian Beer and his colleagues wanted to determine what effect this could produce when applied to all Arctic permafrost soils as a whole. Could the animals’ influence, at least in theory, even be enough to mitigate intensive warming of the atmosphere and stop the thawing of the permafrost?
For the purposes of his study, Beer used a special climate model that can simulate such temperature processes on the land surface over the course of an entire year. The results show: if emissions continue to rise unchecked (scenario RCP 8.5 in the latest IPCC Assessment Report), we can expect to see a 3.8-degree Celsius increase in permafrost temperatures, which would cause half of all permafrost to thaw. In contrast, with animal herds the ground would only warm by ca. 2.1 degrees – 44 percent less, which would be enough to preserve 80 percent of the current soils, as the model shows.
“It may be utopian to imaging resettling wild animal herds in all the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere,” the Earth system expert concedes. “But the results indicate that using fewer animals would still produce a cooling effect. What we’ve shown here is a promising method for slowing the loss of our permanently frozen soils, and with it, the decomposition and release of the enormous carbon stockpiles they contain.”
Beer and his team also considered potential side effects of the approach. For example, in summer the animals destroy the cooling moss layer on the ground, which warms it additionally. This aspect was also taken into account in the simulations, but the positive impact of the snow effect in winter is several times greater. As a next step, Beer plans to collaborate with biologists, in order to investigate how the animals would actually spread across the landscape.
###
Original article: Beer C, Zimov N, Olofsson J, Porada P, Zimov S: Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density (2020); Scientific Reports
Link: http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-60938-y
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60938-y
Pictures Pleistocene Park (free download):
Photo credit all pictures: Pleistocene Park
https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/about-cen/news/11-news-2020/2020-03-17-permafrost-pferde-beer.html
From EurekAlert!


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-17--Delay = death. Countries that act fast reduce the fatality rate by 10x

Dithering politicians push the fatality from 0.5 % toward 5 % A gritty analysis by Tomas Pueyo shows how leaders indecision is killing people every day .
Some of the victims of tomorrows Virus Get-togethers won ’ t die for a few weeks , but the next batch starts tomorrow ( and every day until the nation self-isolates , stops the pox-parties , the cough-shopping , and pneumonia-planes . )
.
And each day there are more than the day before .
Sounds macabre , but at this point in an exponential epidemic , it ’ s just how it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stop the Airbussed virus , we ’ re going to have to shut everything down anyhow , the later we do it , the larger the cost .
Meanwhile in Australia , the average punter seems to realize this and the mood is hitting feverish notes — The government is calling for calm , but doctors are calling for borders to close , and schools to close , they ’ re standing outside schools with signs telling parents not to send their children to school .
Doctors are warning that we are the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t get our act together .
But the government says it ’ s too early to close schools ( apparently we have to kill some more people first ) .
The keep-schools-open excuses are [ … ]

Dithering politicians push the fatality from 0.5% toward 5%
A gritty analysis by Tomas Pueyo shows how leaders indecision is killing people every day. Some of the victims of tomorrows Virus Get-togethers won’t die for a few weeks, but the next batch starts tomorrow (and every day until the nation self-isolates, stops the pox-parties, the cough-shopping, and pneumonia-planes. ). And each day there are more than the day before. Sounds macabre, but at this point in an exponential epidemic, it’s just how it is. Since we didn’t stop the Airbussed virus, we’re going to have to shut everything down anyhow, the later we do it, the larger the cost.
Meanwhile in Australia, the average punter seems to realize this and the mood is hitting feverish notes — The government is calling for calm, but doctors are calling for borders to close, and schools to close, they’re standing outside schools with signs telling parents not to send their children to school. Doctors are warning that we are the next “Italy” if we don’t get our act together. But the government says it’s too early to close schools (apparently we have to kill some more people first). The keep-schools-open excuses are […]
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March 17, 2020 at 11:39AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Josef Joffe: On Coronavirus, Beware the Totalitarian Temptation

State control of information is a bridge to oppression democracies must never cross .
Freedom of expression is among the holiest of holies in a liberal polity .
Totalitarianism is Stalin and Hitler , the NKVD and the Gestapo , the Gulag and the death camp .
Correct , but take another look .
It is also an eternal temptation that has infected Western minds great and small—from Martin “ Sieg Heil !
” Heidegger to Jean-Paul Sartre , who pitched for Communism until the Soviet suppression of the Hungarian Revolution .
Among the lesser minds , Charles Lindbergh cozied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the U.S .
Ambassador to the USSR , penned a ringing apologia for Stalin ’ s Great Terror in Mission to Moscow .
The book was turned into an even more awful movie .
Add a herd of Western devotees and camp followers who cheered Mussolini , Mao , Castro , Che , and , lately , Hugo Chávez—this Stalinist caudillo attracted effusive praise from the actor Sean Penn .
Which takes us to China ’ s President Xi Jinping and an up-to-date example of cheerleading for the almighty state .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Adhanom extolled China as a model in the war against SARS-CoV-2 , better known as “ coronavirus.
” According to China ’ s state media , he gushed that “ China ’ s speed .
.
.
and efficiency .
.
.
is the advantage of China ’ s system.
” The country deserved “ praise ” and “ admiration ” for its methods in routing the silent enemy that has spread the COVID-19 epidemic from Wuhan to Milan , from Alberta to Auckland .
Such an éloge needs to be tempered .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most recent iteration of the coronavirus to China , more precisely to Wuhan and its “ wet markets ” whence it sprang forth from bats , a delicacy of the local cuisine .
That calamity may be ascribed to Chinese culture .
But what followed was owed to the very system cheered by the WHO boss .
By the end of December , health workers warned that something was afoot .
Yet totalitarians hate bad news , that ’ s in their DNA .
Suppressing the reports , they blamed the messengers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speed , ” but the wrong kind .
Instead of locking up the doctors , the regime might have closed down Wuhan Airport , which serves 32 cities around the world , including Paris , London , Rome , Seoul , Tokyo , and Sidney .
With flights operating into February , the virus forged ahead while precious time was lost .
In mid-March , the regime tried fake news , a classic agitprop tool , with the foreign ministry insinuating that the “ U.S .
army had brought the epidemic to Wuhan.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ director ( and plenty of others ) applaud the Communist emperor Xi ?
Because of political expediency , for one .
You don ’ t bite the hand you need to feed in order to contain the Wuhan Virus .
But China seems to be making up for its sins .
Apparently , new cases have plummeted from 2,400 during the last week in February to single digits in mid-March .
So , three cheers for the superiority of a totalitarian system ?
But South Korea is the world ’ s number one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is critical for controlling the virus .
Taiwan has slowed its spread .
In Iran , though , a harsh theocracy whose tentacles reach deeply into society , new infections are on a steep rise .
So totalitarian systems aren ’ t necessarily super-efficient , while supposedly chaotic democracies are hardly doomed .
The price of what Xi calls a “ people ’ s war ” is horrendous .
To boot , Beijing ’ s strategy can be pursued only by a totalitarian state , but not by a democracy .
Essentially , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion people , most harshly in and around Wuhan .
It dispatched armies of enforcers to guard the access to residential compounds and to restrict movement within .
The regime deployed digital surveillance systems no liberal polity would or could countenance , and rightly so .
The government tapped into data from state-run mobile companies as well as from payment apps that record “ who , when , and where , ” so that fugitives can be traced and collared .
Regime minions intrude on what is known in the West as “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ record body temperatures , presumably hauling suspects off to detention facilities—for their own good , of course .
Tech companies have developed apps with a kind of traffic light .
“ Green ” is good , “ yellow ” is a warning , “ red ” is bad .
Guards use the color coding to block movement at railroad stations and traffic nodes .
The darkest side of the “ people ’ s war ” is sheer repression .
Ren Zhiqiang , a prominent Beijing tycoon , had been blasting Xi for extinguishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he now ran afoul of an all-out Party campaign to quash criticism about the government ’ s fake- or no-news strategy .
Ren accused the state of having accelerated the epidemic that had claimed innumerable lives .
He might as well have committed treason .
So , Ren has suddenly disappeared , which is a swift way to silence “ enemies of the people.
” State control of information is a bridge to oppression democracies must never cross .
Freedom of expression is among the holiest of holies in a liberal polity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , free media also happen to be eminently useful in national emergencies , exposing error , mismanagement , and falsehood .
It was the absence of free media in China that enabled the regime to muzzle the whistleblowers of Wuhan at such a murderous price .
How are those bungling democracies doing ?
Italy has virtually copycatted China ’ s anti-virus warfare , practically locking down the entire country .
Spain has followed , as has France—though with a 15-day limit for the time being .
Other EU members will surely go the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Schengenland , ” the EU ’ s borderless realm , reasserting national control .
Yet such constraints are being imposed without the totalitarian tools of the Chinese .
In deploying the powers of the state , Western governments have illuminated a peculiar advantage of democracies .
To combat crises , they need not resort to police-state tactics .
If governments communicate truthfully with the people , the ruled do what needs to be done voluntarily .
Look around the democratic world .
People self-quarantine at home and stay away from large crowds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as closed bars , restaurants , theaters , and stores except those establishments that sustain life in deadly times : food , drug , and pet stores ( animals have to eat , too ) .
They keep social distance and walk alone rather than in pairs .
Competitive sports unfold in empty stadiums whence games are broadcast .
Operas and concerts are streamed .
Companies shift to home office work and video-conferencing on their own .
Schools close according to local determination , and the government provides emergency day care so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ critical places like hospitals .
It isn ’ t all voluntary , of course .
But there is still a difference between Wuhan and Milan .
Carabinieri don ’ t act as prison guards , but ask for cash receipts that prove a trip to the pharmacy .
When venturing outside , the choice is still yours ; this is the critical difference .
You are not manhandled or dragged off to jail .
Instead you pay a fine of 200 euros ( $ 224 ) .
If you feel mistreated , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rule of law does not yield to unchecked power .
It is “ gentle persuasion ” that comes with incentives .
In Munich , for instance , stores that must lock up for a while enjoy the benefits of the welfare state .
Rules on short-time work kick in .
The social security system makes up for reduced wages .
Beyond such anecdotes , there is a larger point : the irreducible trade-off between freedom and safety .
Despots don ’ t have to deal with such conflicts .
For them , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alles .
Let the people pay the price .
Authoritarians love crises—or regularly manufacture them—because these justify untrammeled power .
The logic is all too familiar .
Posit a supreme evil , and all other values must be betrayed : freedom of expression and movement , property rights , judicial review , individual autonomy , political competition , due process .
Rule of Law ?
Not when the enemy is at the gate , and certainly not when he is already roaming the land .
Liberal polities , alas , are not immune @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prophets of planetary doom who want an all-powerful state that would do away with constitutional restraints and unfettered politics for the sake of the earth .
Don ’ t quibble when the house is on fire ; seek salvation in “ eco dictatorship.
” On a less cosmic level , there is Benjamin Netanyahu , who was first in the democratic world to impose a draconian regimen in the corona crisis .
Why Israel of all places ?
Unable to cobble together a coalition , the Prime Minister faces a virus of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loss of office .
And lo , he invoked the epidemic to demand an emergency government headed by him for six or even 24 months .
A scoundrel who thinks evil of it .
It could happen here , too—which is all the more reason to resist the authoritarian temptation .
What are the antidotes ?
All emergency measures must come with a sunset clause .
Protect the freedom of the press at all costs .
Set new dates for postponed elections now .
Keep holding officials accountable .
Secure the separation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not to impose .
Defy the pied papers who stoke panic and hysteria in order to deconstruct the liberal state .
The post Josef Joffe : On Coronavirus , Beware the Totalitarian Temptation appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

State control of information is a bridge to oppression democracies must never cross. Freedom of expression is among the holiest of holies in a liberal polity.
Totalitarianism is Stalin and Hitler, the NKVD and the Gestapo, the Gulag and the death camp. Correct, but take another look. It is also an eternal temptation that has infected Western minds great and small—from Martin “Sieg Heil!” Heidegger to Jean-Paul Sartre, who pitched for Communism until the Soviet suppression of the Hungarian Revolution.
Among the lesser minds, Charles Lindbergh cozied up to Hitler, and Joseph Davies, the U.S. Ambassador to the USSR, penned a ringing apologia for Stalin’s Great Terror in Mission to Moscow. The book was turned into an even more awful movie. Add a herd of Western devotees and camp followers who cheered Mussolini, Mao, Castro, Che, and, lately, Hugo Chávez—this Stalinist caudillo attracted effusive praise from the actor Sean Penn.
Which takes us to China’s President Xi Jinping and an up-to-date example of cheerleading for the almighty state. While in Beijing, the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom extolled China as a model in the war against SARS-CoV-2, better known as “coronavirus.” According to China’s state media, he gushed that “China’s speed . . . and efficiency . . . is the advantage of China’s system.” The country deserved “praise” and “admiration” for its methods in routing the silent enemy that has spread the COVID-19 epidemic from Wuhan to Milan, from Alberta to Auckland.
Such an éloge needs to be tempered. First of all, the world owes the most recent iteration of the coronavirus to China, more precisely to Wuhan and its “wet markets” whence it sprang forth from bats, a delicacy of the local cuisine. That calamity may be ascribed to Chinese culture. But what followed was owed to the very system cheered by the WHO boss.
By the end of December, health workers warned that something was afoot. Yet totalitarians hate bad news, that’s in their DNA. Suppressing the reports, they blamed the messengers and detained them. There was “speed,” but the wrong kind. Instead of locking up the doctors, the regime might have closed down Wuhan Airport, which serves 32 cities around the world, including Paris, London, Rome, Seoul, Tokyo, and Sidney. With flights operating into February, the virus forged ahead while precious time was lost. In mid-March, the regime tried fake news, a classic agitprop tool, with the foreign ministry insinuating that the “U.S. army had brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”
So, why would the WHO director (and plenty of others) applaud the Communist emperor Xi? Because of political expediency, for one. You don’t bite the hand you need to feed in order to contain the Wuhan Virus. But China seems to be making up for its sins. Apparently, new cases have plummeted from 2,400 during the last week in February to single digits in mid-March. So, three cheers for the superiority of a totalitarian system?
But South Korea is the world’s number one when it comes to testing, which is critical for controlling the virus. Taiwan has slowed its spread. In Iran, though, a harsh theocracy whose tentacles reach deeply into society, new infections are on a steep rise. So totalitarian systems aren’t necessarily super-efficient, while supposedly chaotic democracies are hardly doomed.
The price of what Xi calls a “people’s war” is horrendous. To boot, Beijing’s strategy can be pursued only by a totalitarian state, but not by a democracy. Essentially, the state has locked up half a billion people, most harshly in and around Wuhan. It dispatched armies of enforcers to guard the access to residential compounds and to restrict movement within.
The regime deployed digital surveillance systems no liberal polity would or could countenance, and rightly so. The government tapped into data from state-run mobile companies as well as from payment apps that record “who, when, and where,” so that fugitives can be traced and collared. Regime minions intrude on what is known in the West as “my home is my castle” to record body temperatures, presumably hauling suspects off to detention facilities—for their own good, of course. Tech companies have developed apps with a kind of traffic light. “Green” is good, “yellow” is a warning, “red” is bad. Guards use the color coding to block movement at railroad stations and traffic nodes.
The darkest side of the “people’s war” is sheer repression. Ren Zhiqiang, a prominent Beijing tycoon, had been blasting Xi for extinguishing free speech. Too bad for him that he now ran afoul of an all-out Party campaign to quash criticism about the government’s fake- or no-news strategy. Ren accused the state of having accelerated the epidemic that had claimed innumerable lives. He might as well have committed treason. So, Ren has suddenly disappeared, which is a swift way to silence “enemies of the people.”
State control of information is a bridge to oppression democracies must never cross. Freedom of expression is among the holiest of holies in a liberal polity. An indispensable check on arbitrary power, free media also happen to be eminently useful in national emergencies, exposing error, mismanagement, and falsehood. It was the absence of free media in China that enabled the regime to muzzle the whistleblowers of Wuhan at such a murderous price.
How are those bungling democracies doing? Italy has virtually copycatted China’s anti-virus warfare, practically locking down the entire country. Spain has followed, as has France—though with a 15-day limit for the time being. Other EU members will surely go the same route. They are successively dismantling “Schengenland,” the EU’s borderless realm, reasserting national control. Yet such constraints are being imposed without the totalitarian tools of the Chinese. In deploying the powers of the state, Western governments have illuminated a peculiar advantage of democracies. To combat crises, they need not resort to police-state tactics.
If governments communicate truthfully with the people, the ruled do what needs to be done voluntarily. Look around the democratic world. People self-quarantine at home and stay away from large crowds. They accept curbs on their freedom such as closed bars, restaurants, theaters, and stores except those establishments that sustain life in deadly times: food, drug, and pet stores (animals have to eat, too). They keep social distance and walk alone rather than in pairs.
Competitive sports unfold in empty stadiums whence games are broadcast. Operas and concerts are streamed. Companies shift to home office work and video-conferencing on their own. Schools close according to local determination, and the government provides emergency day care so that parents can continue to work in critical places like hospitals. It isn’t all voluntary, of course. But there is still a difference between Wuhan and Milan. Carabinieri don’t act as prison guards, but ask for cash receipts that prove a trip to the pharmacy. When venturing outside, the choice is still yours; this is the critical difference. You are not manhandled or dragged off to jail. Instead you pay a fine of 200 euros ($224).
If you feel mistreated, you can appeal to the courts. The rule of law does not yield to unchecked power. It is “gentle persuasion” that comes with incentives. In Munich, for instance, stores that must lock up for a while enjoy the benefits of the welfare state. Rules on short-time work kick in. The social security system makes up for reduced wages.
Beyond such anecdotes, there is a larger point: the irreducible trade-off between freedom and safety. Despots don’t have to deal with such conflicts. For them, the security of the state—and their regime—is über alles. Let the people pay the price. Authoritarians love crises—or regularly manufacture them—because these justify untrammeled power. The logic is all too familiar. Posit a supreme evil, and all other values must be betrayed: freedom of expression and movement, property rights, judicial review, individual autonomy, political competition, due process. Rule of Law? Not when the enemy is at the gate, and certainly not when he is already roaming the land.
Liberal polities, alas, are not immune to the temptation. Listen to the prophets of planetary doom who want an all-powerful state that would do away with constitutional restraints and unfettered politics for the sake of the earth. Don’t quibble when the house is on fire; seek salvation in “eco dictatorship.” On a less cosmic level, there is Benjamin Netanyahu, who was first in the democratic world to impose a draconian regimen in the corona crisis. Why Israel of all places? Unable to cobble together a coalition, the Prime Minister faces a virus of his own: his criminal indictment and looming loss of office. And lo, he invoked the epidemic to demand an emergency government headed by him for six or even 24 months. A scoundrel who thinks evil of it.
It could happen here, too—which is all the more reason to resist the authoritarian temptation. What are the antidotes? All emergency measures must come with a sunset clause. Protect the freedom of the press at all costs. Set new dates for postponed elections now. Keep holding officials accountable. Secure the separation of powers. The rule is to persuade, not to impose. Defy the pied papers who stoke panic and hysteria in order to deconstruct the liberal state.
Full post
The post Josef Joffe: On Coronavirus, Beware the Totalitarian Temptation appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
https://ift.tt/38Z7zOT
March 18, 2020 at 04:36AM


Massive Beauty

NASA ’ s Juno mission captured this look at the southern hemisphere of Jupiter on Feb. 17 , 2020 , during the spacecraft ’ s most recent close approach to the giant planet .
Not only is Jupiter the largest planet orbiting the Sun , it contains more than twice the amount of material of all other objects in the solar system combined — including all the planets , moons , asteroids and comets .
In composition , Jupiter resembles a star , and scientists estimate that if it had been at least 80 times more massive at its formation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of star called a red dwarf rather than a planet .
While the universe ’ s most common elements , hydrogen and helium , make up most of Jupiter ’ s mass , the striking clouds that are visible at the top of its atmosphere are composed mostly of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide .
This high-resolution view is a composite of four images captured by the JunoCam imager and assembled by citizen scientist Kevin M. Gill .
The images were taken on Feb. 17 , 2020 , between 10:31 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EST ) .
During that time , the spacecraft was between about 30,700 and 62,400 miles ( 49,500 and 100,400 kilometers ) from the tops of the planet ’ s clouds , at latitudes between about 50 and 68 degrees South .
JunoCam ’ s raw images are available for the public to peruse and process into image products at https : //missionjuno.swri.edu/junocam/processing .
More information about Juno is at https : //www.nasa.gov/juno and https : //missionjuno.swri.edu .

From NASA
NASA’s Juno mission captured this look at the southern hemisphere of Jupiter on Feb. 17, 2020, during the spacecraft’s most recent close approach to the giant planet.
Not only is Jupiter the largest planet orbiting the Sun, it contains more than twice the amount of material of all other objects in the solar system combined — including all the planets, moons, asteroids and comets. In composition, Jupiter resembles a star, and scientists estimate that if it had been at least 80 times more massive at its formation, it could have become a type of star called a red dwarf rather than a planet.
While the universe’s most common elements, hydrogen and helium, make up most of Jupiter’s mass, the striking clouds that are visible at the top of its atmosphere are composed mostly of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide.
This high-resolution view is a composite of four images captured by the JunoCam imager and assembled by citizen scientist Kevin M. Gill. The images were taken on Feb. 17, 2020, between 10:31 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. PST (1:31 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. EST). During that time, the spacecraft was between about 30,700 and 62,400 miles (49,500 and 100,400 kilometers) from the tops of the planet’s clouds, at latitudes between about 50 and 68 degrees South.
JunoCam’s raw images are available for the public to peruse and process into image products at https://missionjuno.swri.edu/junocam/processing.
More information about Juno is at https://www.nasa.gov/juno and https://missionjuno.swri.edu.
Image credit:
Image data: NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS
Image processing by Kevin M. Gill, © CC BY


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--UN climate summit under threat because of Coronavirus

Try not to weep .
It will no doubt take place eventually , and hundreds of fuel-thirsty jets will descend on Scotland – or somewhere else – to discuss one more time how not to burn fuel in order to ‘ save the world ’ , or something .
International climate talks scheduled for Glasgow in November have been thrown into doubt as the global clampdown on travel intensifies because of the coronavirus pandemic , reports the Financial Times ( via The GWPF ) .
Government officials said it was increasingly likely that the annual UN gathering would be postponed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is definite yet but from my vantage point I would bet on it being cancelled pretty soon , ” said one Whitehall official .
One senior figure close to the talks said that it was “ near impossible ” to do the requisite diplomatic heavy lifting required in the lead-up to the summit : “ It makes some sense to push back the timetable , ” he said .
The “ COP26 ” would see more than 30,000 people from around the world come to Scotland for about a fortnight for intense discussions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coming years .
With big international gatherings , such as the IMF spring meetings , already either cancelled or made virtual , participants in such conferences said it was inevitable that the COP26 meeting was not certain to go ahead on schedule .

Try not to weep. It will no doubt take place eventually, and hundreds of fuel-thirsty jets will descend on Scotland – or somewhere else – to discuss one more time how not to burn fuel in order to ‘save the world’, or something.
International climate talks scheduled for Glasgow in November have been thrown into doubt as the global clampdown on travel intensifies because of the coronavirus pandemic, reports the Financial Times (via The GWPF).
Government officials said it was increasingly likely that the annual UN gathering would be postponed given the fast-changing situation.
“Nothing is definite yet but from my vantage point I would bet on it being cancelled pretty soon,” said one Whitehall official.
One senior figure close to the talks said that it was “near impossible” to do the requisite diplomatic heavy lifting required in the lead-up to the summit: “It makes some sense to push back the timetable,” he said.
The “COP26” would see more than 30,000 people from around the world come to Scotland for about a fortnight for intense discussions on how to cut carbon emissions in the coming years.
With big international gatherings, such as the IMF spring meetings, already either cancelled or made virtual, participants in such conferences said it was inevitable that the COP26 meeting was not certain to go ahead on schedule.
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March 18, 2020 at 04:18AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Oil Slumps to Lowest Since 2003 on Global Recession Threat

Oil extended its slide to the lowest level in almost 17 years as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to bring the global economy to a standstill , battering demand just as supply explodes .
Futures in New York fell as much as 4.2 % to $ 25.83 a barrel , the lowest since May 2003 , extending losses this week to almost 18 % in the most volatile trading on record .
The last time crude traded near this level was when severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , hit Asia .
While policymakers around the world take unprecedented steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallout of the virus , the meltdown in crude demand and concurrent supply free-for-all by the world ’ s biggest producers continue to pull prices down .
“ I don ’ t think we have hit peak demand devastation yet , ” said Stephen Innes , Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiCorp , who predicts oil may fall to $ 18- $ 20 a barrel .
“ If cases exponentially increase , especially in the U.S. , its going to spook the hell out of oil traders.
” The market is finding little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic fallout .
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced the restart of a financial crisis-era program in an effort to stem the economic impact from the virus .
While U.S. stocks rebounded from the biggest rout since 1987 on the plan , oil continued its slide as Saudi Arabia signaled its intention to ship a record 10 million barrels a day in April .
West Texas Intermediate for April delivery dropped 80 cents to $ 26.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:20 a.m. in London .
Brent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after slumping 4.4 % on Tuesday .
U.S. gasoline prices recovered some ground after the biggest daily drop on Monday since 2005 .
The motor fuel was up 1.8 % at 72.41 cents a gallon on Wednesday .
The post Oil Slumps to Lowest Since 2003 on Global Recession Threat appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

Oil extended its slide to the lowest level in almost 17 years as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to bring the global economy to a standstill, battering demand just as supply explodes.
Futures in New York fell as much as 4.2% to $25.83 a barrel, the lowest since May 2003, extending losses this week to almost 18% in the most volatile trading on record. The last time crude traded near this level was when severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, hit Asia.
While policymakers around the world take unprecedented steps to shore up their economies from the fallout of the virus, the meltdown in crude demand and concurrent supply free-for-all by the world’s biggest producers continue to pull prices down.
“I don’t think we have hit peak demand devastation yet,” said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiCorp, who predicts oil may fall to $18-$20 a barrel. “If cases exponentially increase, especially in the U.S., its going to spook the hell out of oil traders.”
The market is finding little succor in global efforts to stem the economic fallout. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced the restart of a financial crisis-era program in an effort to stem the economic impact from the virus. While U.S. stocks rebounded from the biggest rout since 1987 on the plan, oil continued its slide as Saudi Arabia signaled its intention to ship a record 10 million barrels a day in April.
West Texas Intermediate for April delivery dropped 80 cents to $26.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:20 a.m. in London. Brent crude fell 31 cents to $28.42 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after slumping 4.4% on Tuesday.
U.S. gasoline prices recovered some ground after the biggest daily drop on Monday since 2005. The motor fuel was up 1.8% at 72.41 cents a gallon on Wednesday.
The post Oil Slumps to Lowest Since 2003 on Global Recession Threat appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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March 18, 2020 at 03:33AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--UN Climate Summit Under Threat Because Of Coronavirus

November conference likely to be postponed following travel bans and border closures International climate talks scheduled for Glasgow in November have been thrown into doubt as the global clampdown on travel intensifies because of the coronavirus pandemic .
Government officials said it was increasingly likely that the annual UN gathering would be postponed given the fast-changing situation .
“ Nothing is definite yet but from my vantage point I would bet on it being cancelled pretty soon , ” said one Whitehall official .
One senior figure close to the talks said that it was “ near impossible ” to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the lead-up to the summit : “ It makes some sense to push back the timetable , ” he said .
The “ COP26 ” would see more than 30,000 people from around the world come to Scotland for about a fortnight for intense discussions on how to cut carbon emissions in the coming years .
With big international gatherings , such as the IMF spring meetings , already either cancelled or made virtual , participants in such conferences said it was inevitable that the COP26 meeting was not certain to go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Climate Summit Under Threat Because Of Coronavirus appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum ( GWPF ) .

November conference likely to be postponed following travel bans and border closures
International climate talks scheduled for Glasgow in November have been thrown into doubt as the global clampdown on travel intensifies because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Government officials said it was increasingly likely that the annual UN gathering would be postponed given the fast-changing situation. “Nothing is definite yet but from my vantage point I would bet on it being cancelled pretty soon,” said one Whitehall official. One senior figure close to the talks said that it was “near impossible” to do the requisite diplomatic heavy lifting required in the lead-up to the summit: “It makes some sense to push back the timetable,” he said.
The “COP26” would see more than 30,000 people from around the world come to Scotland for about a fortnight for intense discussions on how to cut carbon emissions in the coming years.
With big international gatherings, such as the IMF spring meetings, already either cancelled or made virtual, participants in such conferences said it was inevitable that the COP26 meeting was not certain to go ahead on schedule.
The post UN Climate Summit Under Threat Because Of Coronavirus appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).
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March 18, 2020 at 03:11AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--CZECH PM URGES EU TO DITCH GREEN DEAL AMID VIRUS EMERGENCY

“ Europe should forget about the Green Deal now and focus on the coronavirus instead , ” Prime Minister Andrej @ @ @ @ @ explaining how the two are connected .
“ Europe is now the biggest epicentre of @ @ @ @ @ , ” the billionaire populist added .
The EU unveiled a draft of the Green @ @ @ @ @ mandating members to achieve net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 .
But ex-communist EU members @ @ @ @ @ announced much less ambitious plans as their energy sectors are still largely dependent on coal @ @ @ @ @ registered 344 cases of COVID-19 , including three recovered patients .
No one has died @ @ @ @ @ country of around 11 million people .
No doubt we shall hear more of the @ @ @ @ @ of tackling the virus emergency emerges .

The Czech premier, whose country depends on nuclear energy and coal, said Monday (16 March) the European Union should ditch its landmark green law seeking carbon neutrality as it battles the novel coronavirus.
“Europe should forget about the Green Deal now and focus on the coronavirus instead,” Prime Minister Andrej Babiš told reporters, without explaining how the two are connected.
“Europe is now the biggest epicentre of the coronavirus in the world,” the billionaire populist added.
The EU unveiled a draft of the Green Deal earlier this month, mandating members to achieve net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050.
But ex-communist EU members like the Czech Republic have announced much less ambitious plans as their energy sectors are still largely dependent on coal.
The Czech Republic has registered 344 cases of COVID-19, including three recovered patients. No one has died of the disease in the country of around 11 million people.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Antiviral drugs – antimalarials and anti HIV may be useful

I ’ ve said from the start that anti-virals were always going to be more useful than vaccines , which take so long to test and be ready for use .
What we really need are anti-virals which also happen to be preapproved and tested and hopefully in mass production .
Chloroquine is cheap too , though I doubt Australian stocks of the drug are very high , or that our genius rulers have arranged more .
This may be a godsend in Africa where chloroquine use is already high and may reduce the spread of Covid-19 somewhat .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks ago .
Clearly someone there thought it mgith be useful .
Wang et al reported on Feb 4th that Chloroquine ( anti-Malarial ) and Remdesivir ( anti HIV ) may be useful against Coronavirus .
They used lab experiments on cells in glass , which had promise .
But “ in vitro ” doesn ’ t always mean “ in vivo ” .
So I ’ ve been waiting for some results on people .
Early reports were ambiguous .
Recently this was hyped as an “ Australian cure ” which really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trial .
There are links to papers and discussion below but I can ’ t beat this great description explaining how inside the cells zinc stops a [ … ]

I’ve said from the start that anti-virals were always going to be more useful than vaccines, which take so long to test and be ready for use. What we really need are anti-virals which also happen to be preapproved and tested and hopefully in mass production. Chloroquine is cheap too, though I doubt Australian stocks of the drug are very high, or that our genius rulers have arranged more. This may be a godsend in Africa where chloroquine use is already high and may reduce the spread of Covid-19 somewhat.
The UK banned export of chloroquine a few weeks ago. Clearly someone there thought it mgith be useful.
Wang et al reported on Feb 4th that Chloroquine (anti-Malarial) and Remdesivir (anti HIV) may be useful against Coronavirus. They used lab experiments on cells in glass, which had promise. But “in vitro” doesn’t always mean “in vivo”. So I’ve been waiting for some results on people. Early reports were ambiguous. Recently this was hyped as an “Australian cure” which really just meant the start of a proper trial.
There are links to papers and discussion below but I can’t beat this great description explaining how inside the cells zinc stops a […]
Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)
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March 18, 2020 at 02:02AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Fake News: Tasmania’s 200% Renewable Energy Vanity Project, 100% Dependent on Coal-Fired Power from

Fake News: Tasmania’s 200% Renewable Energy Vanity Project, 100% Dependent on Coal-Fired Power from Victoria

The renewable energy zealot is all care and no responsibility .
Claims that the world can run on sunshine and @ @ @ @ @ % renewable ” have been outdone by Tasmania with its claim that it will soon @ @ @ @ @ But , dig a little deeper , and the 200 % claim is just as @ @ @ @ @ ]

The renewable energy zealot is all care and no responsibility. Claims that the world can run on sunshine and breezes and become “100% renewable” have been outdone by Tasmania with its claim that it will soon be 200% renewable. But, dig a little deeper, and the 200% claim is just as hollow as the […]
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March 18, 2020 at 01:34AM


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Normalizing Bill McKibben (New Yorker hands the pen to fringe deep ecologist)

“ [ Climate ] is not only a crisis—it is the most thorough and complete crisis our species and our civilizations have ever faced , one there is no guarantee that we will survive intact.
” – Bill McKibben ( 2020 ) “ [ The fossil fuel industry ] is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization.
” – Bill McKibben ( 2012 ) “ Welcome to the Climate Crisis Newsletter , ” featuring Bill McKibben , states the New Yorker .
The new feature from the glassy-eyed , fringe fossil-fuel critic is the latest example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election year , Trump Derangement Syndrome .
The ultimate crisis ?
The end of civilization as we know it ?
Isn ’ t this what is under debate , with climate optimism a viable position given the protective role of wealth and abundant fossil fuels ?
To McKibben and his mainstream media prop , it is all assumption , a false ones at that .
It is now-or-never , doom-and-gloom Malthusianism , worsened by TDS .
McKibben will tie whatever weather extreme then occurring to fossil fuels .
He will plead for reordering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But retreating from modern living is a dreary , futile prospect .
As in the 1970s , the radical Malthusians should head for the hills and leave the us alone .
We , the great majority , the ordinary , will take prosperity and our chances over the unyielding edicts of the would-be eco-authoritarians .
McKibben previews the trouble ahead for normal people , at the hands of malcontent activists who are losing in the real world of energy and politics .
“ National polling , ” McKibben states , “ found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would ‘ personally engage in non-violent civil disobedience ’ against ‘ corporate or government activities that make global warming worse ’ if a person they liked and respected asked them to.
” Continuing : If that ’ s anywhere close to true , then it ’ s possible to imagine a movement big enough to make a difference—a movement one can see already emerging with the school climate strikers , the extinction rebels , and the Green New Dealers .
I hope to introduce you to many of these people , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy wonks whose work undergirds their activism—people I ’ ve met in my years as a journalist and a volunteer at 350.org , the global climate campaign .
Most weeks , I ’ ll include a short interview that lets them address you directly .
McKibben ’ s doom chronicle is one of several online in the age of Malthusian panic ( as in a failing , desperate worldview ) .
McKibben ’ s New Yorker project comes with some trepidation on the Left .
An article from Harvard University ’ s Nieman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the right pace for journalism about climate change to maximize its impact ?
Hammering people with a constant torrent of stories can make some people feel helpless and overwhelmed by the onslaught — not to mention the sheer scope of the problem .
But checking in only sporadically , like when there ’ s a major new international report , leaves the story too far off the public ’ s agenda .
A crisis many years in the making — with both its impacts and solutions often measured in decades — is hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newsroom .
The New Yorker is betting that weekly — and in your inbox rather than as just another link in your Twitter feed — might be right .
The magazine announced this week that it ’ s moving deeper into newsletter-only content with a weekly email dedicated to climate change [ by ] … McKibben — whose 1989 book The End of Nature was many people ’ s introduction to global warming… .
Each issue of The Climate Crisis will consist of a short essay , links , and an interview section @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highlight emerging perspectives on climate change .
The name is a nod to the NAACP publication co-founded by W.E.B .
Du Bois a little more than a century ago .
The real problem faced by Bill McKibben and Emily Atkin ’ s HEATED ( Joe Romm ’ s Climate Progress is defunct ) is that their one-sided , exaggerated , religious approach grows tiresome .
It turns crying wolf to crying Jurassic Park .
The following quotations from McKibben speak for themselves .
That he is being ‘ normalized ’ by the New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
“ Given this hard math , we need to view the fossil-fuel industry in a new light .
It has become a rogue industry , reckless like no other force on Earth .
It is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization.
” — McKibben , “ Global Warming ’ s Terrifying New Math.
” Rolling Stone , July 19 , 2012 .
“ We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of those reserves locked away underground to avoid that fate.
” — McKibben , “ Global Warming ’ s Terrifying New Math.
” Rolling Stone , July 19 , 2012 .
“ Since all of us are in some way the beneficiaries of cheap fossil fuel , tackling climate change has been like trying to build a movement against yourself – it ’ s as if the gay-rights movement had to be constructed entirely from evangelical preachers , or the abolition movement from slaveholders.
” — McKibben , “ Global Warming ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , July 19 , 2012 .
“ There ’ s not a more reckless man on the planet than [ Rex ] Tillerson [ of Exxon Mobil ] .
” — McKibben , “ Global Warming ’ s Terrifying New Math.
” Rolling Stone , July 19 , 2012 .
“ In December , BP finally closed its solar division .
Shell shut down its solar and wind efforts in 2009 .
The five biggest oil companies have made more than $ 1 trillion in profits since the millennium – there ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on oil and gas and coal to go chasing after zephyrs and sunbeams.
” — McKibben , “ Global Warming ’ s Terrifying New Math.
” Rolling Stone , July 19 , 2012 .
“ I don ’ t think everyone can live a middle class American lifestyle all over the world , including middle class Americans.
” — McKibben , 2011 at https : //www.youtube.com/watch ?
v=l6ErZa1comw .
“ Go outside : try to understand that the sun beating down , the rain pouring down , the wind blowing by are all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t live on the planet we were born on .
We live on a new , poorer , simpler planet , and we continue to impoverish it with every ounce of oil and pound of coal that we burn.
” – McKibben “ The End of Nature , ” New York Times , September 4 , 1999 , p. A25 .

“[Climate] is not only a crisis—it is the most thorough and complete crisis our species and our civilizations have ever faced, one there is no guarantee that we will survive intact.” – Bill McKibben (2020) “[The fossil fuel industry] is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization.” – Bill McKibben (2012)
“Welcome to the Climate Crisis Newsletter,” featuring Bill McKibben, states the New Yorker. The new feature from the glassy-eyed, fringe fossil-fuel critic is the latest example of foregone scholarship and, in an election year, Trump Derangement Syndrome.
The ultimate crisis? The end of civilization as we know it? Isn’t this what is under debate, with climate optimism a viable position given the protective role of wealth and abundant fossil fuels?
To McKibben and his mainstream media prop, it is all assumption, a false ones at that. It is now-or-never, doom-and-gloom Malthusianism, worsened by TDS.
McKibben will tie whatever weather extreme then occurring to fossil fuels. He will plead for reordering the economy and upending our personal lifestyles. But retreating from modern living is a dreary, futile prospect.
As in the 1970s, the radical Malthusians should head for the hills and leave the us alone. We, the great majority, the ordinary, will take prosperity and our chances over the unyielding edicts of the would-be eco-authoritarians.
Civil Disobedience Ahead?
McKibben previews the trouble ahead for normal people, at the hands of malcontent activists who are losing in the real world of energy and politics.
“National polling,” McKibben states, “found that one in five Americans said that they would ‘personally engage in non-violent civil disobedience’ against ‘corporate or government activities that make global warming worse’ if a person they liked and respected asked them to.” Continuing:
If that’s anywhere close to true, then it’s possible to imagine a movement big enough to make a difference—a movement one can see already emerging with the school climate strikers, the extinction rebels, and the Green New Dealers. I hope to introduce you to many of these people, and to the scientists, entrepreneurs, and policy wonks whose work undergirds their activism—people I’ve met in my years as a journalist and a volunteer at 350.org, the global climate campaign. Most weeks, I’ll include a short interview that lets them address you directly.
McKibben’s doom chronicle is one of several online in the age of Malthusian panic (as in a failing, desperate worldview). McKibben’s New Yorker project comes with some trepidation on the Left. An article from Harvard University’s Nieman Journalism Lab explained:
What’s the right pace for journalism about climate change to maximize its impact? Hammering people with a constant torrent of stories can make some people feel helpless and overwhelmed by the onslaught — not to mention the sheer scope of the problem. But checking in only sporadically, like when there’s a major new international report, leaves the story too far off the public’s agenda. A crisis many years in the making — with both its impacts and solutions often measured in decades — is hard to align with the rhythms of a newsroom. The New Yorker is betting that weekly — and in your inbox rather than as just another link in your Twitter feed — might be right. The magazine announced this week that it’s moving deeper into newsletter-only content with a weekly email dedicated to climate change [by] … McKibben — whose 1989 book The End of Nature was many people’s introduction to global warming…. Each issue of The Climate Crisis will consist of a short essay, links, and an interview section called “Pass the Mic” to highlight emerging perspectives on climate change. The name is a nod to the NAACP publication co-founded by W.E.B. Du Bois a little more than a century ago.
The real problem faced by Bill McKibben and Emily Atkin’s HEATED (Joe Romm’s Climate Progress is defunct) is that their one-sided, exaggerated, religious approach grows tiresome. It turns crying wolf to crying Jurassic Park.
Who Is Bill McKibben?
The following quotations from McKibben speak for themselves. That he is being ‘normalized’ by the New Yorker is a sad reflection on our time.
“Given this hard math, we need to view the fossil-fuel industry in a new light. It has become a rogue industry, reckless like no other force on Earth. It is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization.” — McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012.
“We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn. We’d have to keep 80 percent of those reserves locked away underground to avoid that fate.” — McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012.
“Since all of us are in some way the beneficiaries of cheap fossil fuel, tackling climate change has been like trying to build a movement against yourself – it’s as if the gay-rights movement had to be constructed entirely from evangelical preachers, or the abolition movement from slaveholders.” — McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012.
“There’s not a more reckless man on the planet than [Rex] Tillerson [of Exxon Mobil].” — McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012.
“In December, BP finally closed its solar division. Shell shut down its solar and wind efforts in 2009. The five biggest oil companies have made more than $1 trillion in profits since the millennium – there’s simply too much money to be made on oil and gas and coal to go chasing after zephyrs and sunbeams.” — McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012.
“I don’t think everyone can live a middle class American lifestyle all over the world, including middle class Americans.” — McKibben, 2011 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6ErZa1comw.
“Go outside: try to understand that the sun beating down, the rain pouring down, the wind blowing by are all now human artifacts. We don’t live on the planet we were born on. We live on a new, poorer, simpler planet, and we continue to impoverish it with every ounce of oil and pound of coal that we burn.” – McKibben “The End of Nature,” New York Times, September 4, 1999, p. A25.


iowaclimatescienceeducation--2020-03-18--Corey S. Powell: The next 10 years will be a remarkable era of space exploration

In 2025 , the Japanese-European BepiColombo probe will carry out the most detailed exploration of Mercury .
( Here you @ @ @ @ @ antenna , preparing for the mission ahead . )
https : //t.co/4pomSLfyok pic.twitter.com/Z3wf6iwg9b

In 2025, the Japanese-European BepiColombo probe will carry out the most detailed exploration of Mercury. (Here you see it examining its own antenna, preparing for the mission ahead.) https://t.co/4pomSLfyok pic.twitter.com/Z3wf6iwg9b
— Corey S. Powell (@coreyspowell) March 17, 2020