thefiscaltimes--2020-10-22--Jobless Claims Drop, but Remain Historically High

About 787,000 people filed initial jobless claims in state unemployment programs last week , the Labor Department announced Thursday , a drop of 55,000 from the week before and well below analysts ’ expectations .
Another 345,000 people filed for benefits through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program , the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed , an increase of roughly 8,000 on a week-over-week basis .
All told , about 1.1 million people made first-time claims for unemployment benefits , a drop of about 200,000 from the week before .
The total number of people receiving any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down to 23.1 million in early October , a drop of about 1 million .
A mixed picture : The good news is that a downward trend in new jobless claims , which are used as a proxy for layoffs , appears to be solidifying , with the three of the last four weekly reports showing a decline .
The bad news is that new claims still registered over 1 million – a staggeringly high level not seen in the post-war era until the coronavirus crisis took hold .
“ The overall picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stalling even though the latest decline is somewhat encouraging , ” said Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger .
A long way from normal : “ There are still millions and millions on the nation ’ s unemployment rolls because many of the jobs lost during the steepest downturn in economic history have not yet returned , ” Chris Rupkey , chief economist at MUFG in New York , told Reuters .
“ Time will tell if the still-record number of people out of work will act as a brake on the economic recovery or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more on the course of the virus.
” Running on empty ?
“ We ’ re not calling people back fast enough at a time that we know many households are running on fumes , unable to pay for food for the week and rent , ” said Diane Swonk , chief economist at Grant Thornton .
“ It bolsters the case for stimulus and aid , now , '' she added .
`` I feel like a broken record .
”

About 787,000 people filed initial jobless claims in state unemployment programs last week, the Labor Department announced Thursday, a drop of 55,000 from the week before and well below analysts’ expectations.
Another 345,000 people filed for benefits through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed, an increase of roughly 8,000 on a week-over-week basis.
All told, about 1.1 million people made first-time claims for unemployment benefits, a drop of about 200,000 from the week before. The total number of people receiving any kind of unemployment assistance also fell, down to 23.1 million in early October, a drop of about 1 million.
A mixed picture: The good news is that a downward trend in new jobless claims, which are used as a proxy for layoffs, appears to be solidifying, with the three of the last four weekly reports showing a decline. The bad news is that new claims still registered over 1 million – a staggeringly high level not seen in the post-war era until the coronavirus crisis took hold.
“The overall picture remains unchanged -- the downtrend has been stalling even though the latest decline is somewhat encouraging,” said Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger.
A long way from normal: “There are still millions and millions on the nation’s unemployment rolls because many of the jobs lost during the steepest downturn in economic history have not yet returned,” Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York, told Reuters. “Time will tell if the still-record number of people out of work will act as a brake on the economic recovery or whether the economy’s fortunes depend more on the course of the virus.”
Running on empty? “We’re not calling people back fast enough at a time that we know many households are running on fumes, unable to pay for food for the week and rent,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “It bolsters the case for stimulus and aid, now," she added. "I feel like a broken record.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-21--Trump’s Drug Discount Cards for Seniors Get Pushed Back

The Trump administration plans to send $ 200 discount cards for prescription drugs to more than 30 million Medicare beneficiaries @ @ @ @ @ is abandoning an effort to have them shipped out before Election Day following complaints that @ @ @ @ @ laws .
“ I think that was a concern that there might have been a @ @ @ @ @ for a political motivation .
That ’ s not the case , ” Chief of @ @ @ @ @ .
Administration officials are expected to approve a final plan for the program , which @ @ @ @ @ 8 billion , within the next 48 hours , Bloomberg reported Wednesday .
However , @ @ @ @ @ expected to be sent out until November or December .

The Trump administration plans to send $200 discount cards for prescription drugs to more than 30 million Medicare beneficiaries, but the White House is abandoning an effort to have them shipped out before Election Day following complaints that the effort could violate election laws.
“I think that was a concern that there might have been a look that this was done for a political motivation. That’s not the case,” Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Wednesday.
Administration officials are expected to approve a final plan for the program, which will cost an estimated $8 billion, within the next 48 hours, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. However, the cards aren’t expected to be sent out until November or December.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-21--Pelosi Says Help Is On the Way, but When?

Help is on the way , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) said in an interview with MSNBC on Wednesday , referring to the coronavirus relief package she ’ s been negotiating with the White House .
But she acknowledged that a deal may not come together in time to be voted on before the November 3 elections .
“ I 'm optimistic , because even with what Mitch McConnell says — ‘ We do n't want to do it before the election ’ — but let 's keep working so that we can do it after the election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to before .
But again , I want people to know , help is on the way .
It will be bigger .
It will be better .
It will be safer , and it will be retroactive.
” Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke for 48 minutes Wednesday afternoon and continued to make progress toward a deal , Drew Hammill , a spokesperson for the speaker , tweeted .
“ Today 's conversation brings us closer to being able to put pen to paper to write legislation .
With the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better prepared to reach compromise on several priorities , ” he wrote .
“ Differences continue to be narrowed on health priorities , including language providing a national strategic testing and contract tracing plan , but more work needs to be done to ensure that schools are the safest places in America for children to learn.
” Hammill said the negotiators plan to speak again Thursday , and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told Fox Business that the administration ’ s goal is to reach an agreement in the next 48 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state and local assistance , ” Meadows said .
“ That remains a stumbling block.
” Meadows said that the White House has proposed providing $ 250 billion in aid to state and local governments while Pelosi is pushing for about twice that amount .
Not making it any easier : President Trump weighed in on Twitter late Thursday afternoon .
“ Just don ’ t see any way Nancy Pelosi and Cryin ’ Chuck Schumer will be willing to do what is right for our great American workers , or our wonderful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary focus is BAILING OUT poorly run ( and high crime ) Democrat cities and states ... .
, ” he wrote .
McConnell does his math : Senate Republicans remain another obstacle .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) has warned the White House against a pre-election deal , which could put many of his members in the uncomfortable position of either opposing a roughly $ 2 trillion package backed by President Trump — and favored by voters — or agreeing to the kind of additional deficit spending they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their conservative base .
Either way , they may risk losing some votes .
“ The leader ’ s position is sort of dictated by the math , ” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune of South Dakota , according to Axios .
“ I mean , he knows where the votes are and as much as we all want to get a deal , a deal that would pass in the Senate with all Democratic votes and a handful of Republicans is not something the leader would like to happen.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett , which could be affected by a massive stimulus package suddenly landing on the schedule .
Pelosi reportedly suggested Wednesday that McConnell “ might not mind doing it after the election.
” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that at least announcing a deal before the election would be “ very helpful to the economy and markets , ” even if any congressional vote had to wait .
Meadows reportedly said that Trump is “ willing to lean into this ” to win the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president has expressed confidence that those lawmakers will come along .
That ’ s not assured .
CNN ’ s Lauren Fox writes : “ After years of sticking with Trump despite his antics and the fact that some of the President 's policies flew in the face of long-established GOP orthodoxy , the stimulus bill is the make-or-break moment where Republican senators may finally throw up their hands and tell Trump ‘ no.
’ '' Narrower Senate GOP plan again blocked by Dems : McConnell tried to move a narrower , $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was blocked by Democrats .
That legislation , similar to an earlier plan that was also blocked by Democrats , would provide $ 300 in weekly federal unemployment benefits through the end of the year as well as funding for schools , coronavirus testing and vaccines .
It also includes a liability shield for businesses and schools that Democrats oppose .
The package was seen as a messaging maneuver with no chance of advancing , meant largely to buy Republicans some political cover on Covid relief efforts .

Help is on the way, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in an interview with MSNBC on Wednesday, referring to the coronavirus relief package she’s been negotiating with the White House. But she acknowledged that a deal may not come together in time to be voted on before the November 3 elections.
“I'm optimistic, because even with what Mitch McConnell says — ‘We don't want to do it before the election’ — but let's keep working so that we can do it after the election,” Pelosi said. “We want to before. But again, I want people to know, help is on the way. It will be bigger. It will be better. It will be safer, and it will be retroactive.”
Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke for 48 minutes Wednesday afternoon and continued to make progress toward a deal, Drew Hammill, a spokesperson for the speaker, tweeted.
“Today's conversation brings us closer to being able to put pen to paper to write legislation. With the exchange of legislative language, we are better prepared to reach compromise on several priorities,” he wrote. “Differences continue to be narrowed on health priorities, including language providing a national strategic testing and contract tracing plan, but more work needs to be done to ensure that schools are the safest places in America for children to learn.”
Hammill said the negotiators plan to speak again Thursday, and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told Fox Business that the administration’s goal is to reach an agreement in the next 48 hours. “The biggest issue remains state and local assistance,” Meadows said. “That remains a stumbling block.” Meadows said that the White House has proposed providing $250 billion in aid to state and local governments while Pelosi is pushing for about twice that amount.
Not making it any easier: President Trump weighed in on Twitter late Thursday afternoon. “Just don’t see any way Nancy Pelosi and Cryin’ Chuck Schumer will be willing to do what is right for our great American workers, or our wonderful USA itself, on Stimulus. Their primary focus is BAILING OUT poorly run (and high crime) Democrat cities and states....,” he wrote.
McConnell does his math: Senate Republicans remain another obstacle. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has warned the White House against a pre-election deal, which could put many of his members in the uncomfortable position of either opposing a roughly $2 trillion package backed by President Trump — and favored by voters — or agreeing to the kind of additional deficit spending they’ve warned against, potentially alienating some of their conservative base. Either way, they may risk losing some votes.
“The leader’s position is sort of dictated by the math,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune of South Dakota, according to Axios. “I mean, he knows where the votes are and as much as we all want to get a deal, a deal that would pass in the Senate with all Democratic votes and a handful of Republicans is not something the leader would like to happen.”
McConnell also remains focused on the quick confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, which could be affected by a massive stimulus package suddenly landing on the schedule.
Pelosi reportedly suggested Wednesday that McConnell “might not mind doing it after the election.” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that at least announcing a deal before the election would be “very helpful to the economy and markets,” even if any congressional vote had to wait.
Meadows reportedly said that Trump is “willing to lean into this” to win the support of Senate Republicans, and the president has expressed confidence that those lawmakers will come along. That’s not assured. CNN’s Lauren Fox writes: “After years of sticking with Trump despite his antics and the fact that some of the President's policies flew in the face of long-established GOP orthodoxy, the stimulus bill is the make-or-break moment where Republican senators may finally throw up their hands and tell Trump ‘no.’"
Narrower Senate GOP plan again blocked by Dems: McConnell tried to move a narrower, $500 billion relief package Wednesday, but it was blocked by Democrats. That legislation, similar to an earlier plan that was also blocked by Democrats, would provide $300 in weekly federal unemployment benefits through the end of the year as well as funding for schools, coronavirus testing and vaccines. It also includes a liability shield for businesses and schools that Democrats oppose. The package was seen as a messaging maneuver with no chance of advancing, meant largely to buy Republicans some political cover on Covid relief efforts.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-23--Pelosi, Mnuchin Point Fingers as Coronavirus Stimulus Talks Stall

Satirical newspaper The Onion published a story Friday saying that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had announced they would be meeting to put the final touches on a 1,000-piece “ Starry Night ” jigsaw puzzle .
“ We really want to get his puzzle done before the election , but it ’ s also important not to rush things and jam pieces of the night sky together that don ’ t actually fit , ” the two officials supposedly said .
“ It ’ s true that we hoped to get the puzzle done faster when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working on it day and night , it takes time to assemble so many pieces .
There are still some sticking points , like whether a few of the border pieces are lost for good or whether they ’ re just in a couch cushion somewhere in the Oval Office , but as soon as we find those and finish the cypress tree , we ’ ll be all ready to present it to the public.
” That fake news might be more encouraging than the current reality , where the two sides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a deal before the November elections 11 days away could be reached if only the other side would compromise .
“ We could do that before the election , if the president wants to , ” Pelosi told MSNBC on Friday .
Mnuchin told reporters that the two sides had made significant progress , but put the onus on Pelosi for further movement .
“ We ’ ve offered compromises , ” he said .
“ The speaker , on a number of issues , is still dug in .
If she wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal.
” Both Pelosi and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said they remain optimistic that an agreement can be reached soon .
“ Hopefully we can get a deal in the next day or so , ” Meadows said .
“ We ’ re still working through it , Secretary Mnuchin and I have talked and we ’ re still working with her teams , but actually making adjustments and trying to look at language to reach a compromise.
” But President Trump on Friday again criticized Pelosi ’ s insistence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governments , claiming that the speaker “ wants to bail out poorly run Democrat states ” ( even though governors of red states have also called for aid ) .
Trump again accused Pelosi of not wanting a deal before voters cast their ballots .
A new wrinkle : With many Senate Republicans opposed to relief spending along the lines of the roughly $ 2 trillion package being negotiated , some House Democrats have reportedly told Pelosi that they don ’ t want to vote on legislation before the election unless she gets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Pelosi said Friday that Trump would have to convince members of his party .
“ The fact is that the president has been back and forth : ‘ Stop the negotiations , ’ ‘ Oh , I want more money than Nancy , ’ ‘ I hope she ’ ll agree with me , ’ ” she said .
“ But he has to talk to the Senate Republicans.
” What it all means : Despite some faint hope that a deal might come together , it ’ s looking less and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the elections .
“ The ball is not moving much right now , ” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg Television .
“ It ’ s very difficult .
The clock is ticking ...
Even if you had a deal in the next few days , you have to go through committee print and have votes in House and Senate .
It ’ s not going to be easy.
” Or as The Wall Street Journal ’ s Nick Timiraos put it : “ The stimulus talks : No one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if there ’ s not much more to say.
” The numerous issues that still must be worked out mean that another relief bill might have to wait until 2021 .
Lawmakers could still consider coronavirus relief measures in the lame duck session after the election , when they will also have to pass a new spending bill by December 11 .
But the election results could complicate any lame duck legislation .
“ Putting off votes on a stimulus package until after the election raises the risk that the Trump administration will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a package through the GOP Senate , ” Bloomberg News reported Friday .
“ That likely would be amplified if Trump loses to Democrat Joe Biden and Republicans lose their Senate majority -- leaving action on stimulus for the pandemic-stricken U.S. economy until late January at the earliest .
”

Satirical newspaper The Onion published a story Friday saying that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had announced they would be meeting to put the final touches on a 1,000-piece “Starry Night” jigsaw puzzle.
“We really want to get his puzzle done before the election, but it’s also important not to rush things and jam pieces of the night sky together that don’t actually fit,” the two officials supposedly said. “It’s true that we hoped to get the puzzle done faster when we started in June, but even working on it day and night, it takes time to assemble so many pieces. There are still some sticking points, like whether a few of the border pieces are lost for good or whether they’re just in a couch cushion somewhere in the Oval Office, but as soon as we find those and finish the cypress tree, we’ll be all ready to present it to the public.”
That fake news might be more encouraging than the current reality, where the two sides have reverted to finger-pointing, suggesting that a deal before the November elections 11 days away could be reached if only the other side would compromise.
“We could do that before the election, if the president wants to,” Pelosi told MSNBC on Friday.
Mnuchin told reporters that the two sides had made significant progress, but put the onus on Pelosi for further movement. “We’ve offered compromises,” he said. “The speaker, on a number of issues, is still dug in. If she wants to compromise, there will be a deal.”
Both Pelosi and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said they remain optimistic that an agreement can be reached soon. “Hopefully we can get a deal in the next day or so,” Meadows said. “We’re still working through it, Secretary Mnuchin and I have talked and we’re still working with her teams, but actually making adjustments and trying to look at language to reach a compromise.”
But President Trump on Friday again criticized Pelosi’s insistence on additional aid to state and local governments, claiming that the speaker “wants to bail out poorly run Democrat states” (even though governors of red states have also called for aid). Trump again accused Pelosi of not wanting a deal before voters cast their ballots.
A new wrinkle: With many Senate Republicans opposed to relief spending along the lines of the roughly $2 trillion package being negotiated, some House Democrats have reportedly told Pelosi that they don’t want to vote on legislation before the election unless she gets assurances that the Senate will as well. Pelosi said Friday that Trump would have to convince members of his party. “The fact is that the president has been back and forth: ‘Stop the negotiations,’ ‘Oh, I want more money than Nancy,’ ‘I hope she’ll agree with me,’” she said. “But he has to talk to the Senate Republicans.”
What it all means: Despite some faint hope that a deal might come together, it’s looking less and less likely that anything will get done before the elections. “The ball is not moving much right now,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg Television. “It’s very difficult. The clock is ticking ... Even if you had a deal in the next few days, you have to go through committee print and have votes in House and Senate. It’s not going to be easy.”
Or as The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos put it: “The stimulus talks: No one wants to hang up the phone even if there’s not much more to say.”
The numerous issues that still must be worked out mean that another relief bill might have to wait until 2021. Lawmakers could still consider coronavirus relief measures in the lame duck session after the election, when they will also have to pass a new spending bill by December 11. But the election results could complicate any lame duck legislation.
“Putting off votes on a stimulus package until after the election raises the risk that the Trump administration will be less inclined or able to push a package through the GOP Senate,” Bloomberg News reported Friday. “That likely would be amplified if Trump loses to Democrat Joe Biden and Republicans lose their Senate majority -- leaving action on stimulus for the pandemic-stricken U.S. economy until late January at the earliest.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-22--GOP Worries Mnuchin Is Giving Away Too Much

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) said negotiators were “ just about there ” on the issue of funding testing and tracing programs for the coronavirus , a key provision in the relief bill she is trying to hash out with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin .
But numerous other provisions are still unsettled , including the crucial issues of aid to state and local governments , liability protections for businesses and funding for schools , and time is quickly running out to get a bill ready before Election Day .
Pelosi said she still holds out hope that a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It 's only about time , ” she told reporters in the Capitol .
“ I think it is in range for us to pass it before the election .
But it 's not up to me to decide what the Senate does.
” Pelosi also warned that even if negotiators can agree on all the details soon , the legislative process will take time to complete .
“ If we can resolve some of these things in the next few days , it ’ ll take a while to write the bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic adviser Larry Kudlow highlighted the difficult road ahead .
“ There are still significant policy differences between the two teams , ” he said , adding that Democrats need to amend their offer .
“ The clock is ticking , ” Kudlow said .
Growing frustration for Senate Republicans : Some GOP senators are concerned that Mnuchin is giving too much away in his negotiations with Pelosi , The Washington Post ’ s Erica Werner and Jeff Stein report .
The White House offer is now close to $ 1.9 trillion , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would refuse to support .
Mnuchin has also reportedly agreed to $ 300 billion in assistance for state and local governments , another problem for many on the right .
“ He negotiates harder with his own side than he does with her .
Folks over here are sick of it , ” one Republican aide told the Post .
Mnuchin “ gives and gives and gives and gets nothing in return , ” the aide added .
While some Republicans say they might support the bill — Sen. Marco Rubio ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — it ’ s hard to imagine it passing a GOP-controlled Senate .
“ There are not 13 votes for this pile of crap Mnuchin is capitulating on , ” a Republican aide said .
Questions about the politics : Conservative activists raised serious questions about the way Republicans were approaching the relief bill .
Former senator and Heritage Foundation leader Jim DeMint said some GOP lawmakers don ’ t trust the Treasury secretary .
“ They don ’ t feel like [ Mnuchin ] is negotiating for them , and certainly not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The consensus is he ’ s trying to get something done .
And to get something done with Nancy Pelosi will require something most of us will not feel good about.
” Republican political strategist Liam Donovan complained to the Post that there are “ zero policy wins ” for the GOP in the still-developing bill .
At the same time , Republicans could suffer politically if they are seen resisting a relief bill that would provide much-needed assistance to millions of Americans .
“ Except for a handful from the neo-austerity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would see the boost from it , and they would get credit for helping people in the middle of a crisis , ” said Tony Fratto , a former George W. Bush administration official .
“ It ’ s bad economics but also just really dumb politics.
” Pelosi was happy to highlight the confusion on the Republican side of the aisle .
“ I do believe that both sides want to reach an agreement .
I ca n't answer to the disarray on the Senate side , ” she said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ psych out Mitch McConnell , ” she added .
“ It 's about the president of the United States engaging in a discussion , but it 's up to him to deliver what can happen on the Senate side .
”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said negotiators were “just about there” on the issue of funding testing and tracing programs for the coronavirus, a key provision in the relief bill she is trying to hash out with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
But numerous other provisions are still unsettled, including the crucial issues of aid to state and local governments, liability protections for businesses and funding for schools, and time is quickly running out to get a bill ready before Election Day.
Pelosi said she still holds out hope that a bill can come together quickly. “It's only about time,” she told reporters in the Capitol. “I think it is in range for us to pass it before the election. But it's not up to me to decide what the Senate does.”
Pelosi also warned that even if negotiators can agree on all the details soon, the legislative process will take time to complete. “If we can resolve some of these things in the next few days, it’ll take a while to write the bill,” she said.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow highlighted the difficult road ahead. “There are still significant policy differences between the two teams,” he said, adding that Democrats need to amend their offer. “The clock is ticking,” Kudlow said.
Growing frustration for Senate Republicans: Some GOP senators are concerned that Mnuchin is giving too much away in his negotiations with Pelosi, The Washington Post’s Erica Werner and Jeff Stein report. The White House offer is now close to $1.9 trillion, a figure that many Republicans have said they would refuse to support. Mnuchin has also reportedly agreed to $300 billion in assistance for state and local governments, another problem for many on the right.
“He negotiates harder with his own side than he does with her. Folks over here are sick of it,” one Republican aide told the Post. Mnuchin “gives and gives and gives and gets nothing in return,” the aide added.
While some Republicans say they might support the bill — Sen. Marco Rubio (FL) spoke favorably about it Thursday — it’s hard to imagine it passing a GOP-controlled Senate. “There are not 13 votes for this pile of crap Mnuchin is capitulating on,” a Republican aide said.
Questions about the politics: Conservative activists raised serious questions about the way Republicans were approaching the relief bill. Former senator and Heritage Foundation leader Jim DeMint said some GOP lawmakers don’t trust the Treasury secretary. “They don’t feel like [Mnuchin] is negotiating for them, and certainly not for conservatives,” DeMint said. “The consensus is he’s trying to get something done. And to get something done with Nancy Pelosi will require something most of us will not feel good about.”
Republican political strategist Liam Donovan complained to the Post that there are “zero policy wins” for the GOP in the still-developing bill.
At the same time, Republicans could suffer politically if they are seen resisting a relief bill that would provide much-needed assistance to millions of Americans. “Except for a handful from the neo-austerity caucus among Senate Republicans, everybody else would see the boost from it, and they would get credit for helping people in the middle of a crisis,” said Tony Fratto, a former George W. Bush administration official. “It’s bad economics but also just really dumb politics.”
Pelosi was happy to highlight the confusion on the Republican side of the aisle. “I do believe that both sides want to reach an agreement. I can't answer to the disarray on the Senate side,” she said.
“It's not up to me to psych out Mitch McConnell,” she added. “It's about the president of the United States engaging in a discussion, but it's up to him to deliver what can happen on the Senate side.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-21--Trump’s Farm Bailout Pumped $21 Billion Into GOP Counties

More than 90 % of the money disbursed by a program that compensates American farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs during President Trump ’ s trade war with China was sent to counties that voted Republican in the 2016 presidential election , according to a report Tuesday evening in The Washington Post .
The Agriculture Department ’ s Market Facilitation Program , which distributed more than $ 23 billion in 2018 and 2019 , sent about $ 21 billion to Trump counties , and just $ 2.1 billion to counties won by Hillary Clinton .
“ That this disparity falls so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the likelihood of rural voters to support Trump , certainly , ” the Post ’ s Philip Bump says .
“ But that doesn ’ t detract from the point that this was nonetheless a massive redistribution of money to places that supported Trump.
” Bump points out that farm subsidies were funded by tariffs on Chinese imports – a cost that is borne by all Americans and not , as Trump insists , the Chinese .
“ It ’ s as though a Democratic president decided to tax Americans broadly to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s largest cities , ” Bump writes .
“ The recipients would overwhelmingly be members of his or her own party .
”

More than 90% of the money disbursed by a program that compensates American farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs during President Trump’s trade war with China was sent to counties that voted Republican in the 2016 presidential election, according to a report Tuesday evening in The Washington Post.
The Agriculture Department’s Market Facilitation Program, which distributed more than $23 billion in 2018 and 2019, sent about $21 billion to Trump counties, and just $2.1 billion to counties won by Hillary Clinton.
“That this disparity falls so heavily along political lines is a function of the likelihood of rural voters to support Trump, certainly,” the Post’s Philip Bump says. “But that doesn’t detract from the point that this was nonetheless a massive redistribution of money to places that supported Trump.”
Bump points out that farm subsidies were funded by tariffs on Chinese imports – a cost that is borne by all Americans and not, as Trump insists, the Chinese. “It’s as though a Democratic president decided to tax Americans broadly to send billions of dollars to the country’s largest cities,” Bump writes. “The recipients would overwhelmingly be members of his or her own party.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-26--White House Hands Over Fake Health Care Plan

Before walking out on the interview in what appeared to be anger over the tone of the questioning , President Trump told Lesley Stahl of “ 60 Minutes ” that his oft-cited but never-seen health care plan is “ fully developed : ” Lesley Stahl : Okay , I 'll ask you another health question , okay ?
... You promised that there was gon na be a new health package , a health care plan .
Stahl : You said that it was , `` Going to be great , '' you said , `` It 's ready , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ready '' -- Trump : It will be .
Stahl : `` It 'll be here in two weeks . ''
`` It 's going to be like nothing you 've ever seen before . ''
And of course we have n't seen it .
So why did n't you develop a health plan ?
Trump : It is developed , it is fully developed .
It 's going to be announced very soon — Trump : When we see what happens with Obamacare .
The president did not explain why he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with or without a decision on the fate of the Affordable Care Act from the Supreme Court , which is set to hear arguments on a legal challenge to the law a week after Election Day .
He did , however , provide Stahl with what the White House said was a copy of the plan .
“ Lesley , the president wanted me to deliver his health care plan , ” Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said as she handed Stahl an enormous tome .
“ It 's a little heavy.
” In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handover , Stahl can be seen opening the book , only to find a blank page , sparking speculation that Trump had used an enormous book filed with blank pages as a prop to back up his claim about having a health care plan .
But Stahl said later that the book was not blank .
Instead , it was “ filled with executive orders and congressional initiatives , but no comprehensive healthcare plan.
” To paraphrase Samuel Beckett : We must go on waiting for the Trump health care plan .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll go on .

Before walking out on the interview in what appeared to be anger over the tone of the questioning, President Trump told Lesley Stahl of “60 Minutes” that his oft-cited but never-seen health care plan is “fully developed:”
Lesley Stahl: Okay, I'll ask you another health question, okay? ... You promised that there was gonna be a new health package, a health care plan.
President Donald Trump: Yeah.
Stahl: You said that it was, "Going to be great," you said, "It's ready," "It's going to be ready"--
Trump: It will be.
Stahl: "It'll be here in two weeks." "It's going to be like nothing you've ever seen before." And of course we haven't seen it. So why didn't you develop a health plan?
Trump: It is developed, it is fully developed. It's going to be announced very soon —
Stahl: When?
Trump: When we see what happens with Obamacare.
The president did not explain why he was keeping the much-anticipated plan under wraps, with or without a decision on the fate of the Affordable Care Act from the Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments on a legal challenge to the law a week after Election Day. He did, however, provide Stahl with what the White House said was a copy of the plan.
“Lesley, the president wanted me to deliver his health care plan,” Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said as she handed Stahl an enormous tome. “It's a little heavy.”
In a widely-seen photo taken shortly after the handover, Stahl can be seen opening the book, only to find a blank page, sparking speculation that Trump had used an enormous book filed with blank pages as a prop to back up his claim about having a health care plan. But Stahl said later that the book was not blank. Instead, it was “filled with executive orders and congressional initiatives, but no comprehensive healthcare plan.”
To paraphrase Samuel Beckett: We must go on waiting for the Trump health care plan. We can’t go on. We’ll go on.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-26--Hopes Fade as Pelosi, Mnuchin Fail to Make a Deal on Stimulus

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke for nearly an hour Monday , but once again were unable to agree on terms for a massive new round of spending to boost the U.S. economy .
Pelosi ’ s spokesman Drew Hammill said Pelosi was still “ optimistic ” about making a deal , but the failure to reach an agreement Monday all but guarantees that no bill will be passed before Election Day .
Numerous issues still divide the negotiators , including the language defining a national testing and tracing program for the coronavirus – a problem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Congressional staff spent the weekend working on various aspects of the legislation , but reportedly made little progress .
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Monday that differences between the sides “ have narrowed , ” but “ the more it narrows , the more conditions come up on the other side.
” Pelosi blamed the White House for the failure to come to terms .
“ Today , we are waiting for an important response on several concerns , including on action to crush the virus , ” Pelosi said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days after Secretary Mnuchin went on CNBC to declare that he was accepting our testing plan , the Administration still refuses to do so.
” Pelosi called on the White House to continue to work on a potential deal .
“ We must come to agreement as soon as possible , ” she said .
“ But we can not accept the Administration ’ s refusal to crush the virus , honor our heroes or put money in the pockets of the American people .
The Democratic message to the American people is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It Will Be Safer , Bigger , Better and Retroactive.
” It is a matter of life-or-death , and Democrats are deadly serious about the responsibility we face.
” Focus on lame duck : As hopes fade for a stimulus bill in the near term , lawmakers are turning their attention to the weeks after the election , when Congress will need to pass fiscal legislation ahead of a December 11 deadline to fund the federal government .
“ The prospects will improve after the election once we get past the current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ numbered year , ” Sen. John Thune ( R-SD ) said Sunday .
“ There ’ s a whole range of things that we all agree on .
And I don ’ t know why we can ’ t at least do that.
” Not everyone agrees that a stimulus bill is likely to pass after November 3 , however , with much depending on the results of the election .
Surveying the various possible outcomes of the election .
Bloomberg ’ s Timothy L. O'Brien and Nir Kaissar said Monday that one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winning with the Senate remaining in Republican hands – could mean no deal gets done .
In that scenario , the economy is “ left to its own devices , and a return to the pre-Covid economy is unlikely anytime soon , ” they wrote .

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke for nearly an hour Monday, but once again were unable to agree on terms for a massive new round of spending to boost the U.S. economy.
Pelosi’s spokesman Drew Hammill said Pelosi was still “optimistic” about making a deal, but the failure to reach an agreement Monday all but guarantees that no bill will be passed before Election Day.
Numerous issues still divide the negotiators, including the language defining a national testing and tracing program for the coronavirus – a problem that was supposedly nearly solved last week. Congressional staff spent the weekend working on various aspects of the legislation, but reportedly made little progress.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Monday that differences between the sides “have narrowed,” but “the more it narrows, the more conditions come up on the other side.”
Pelosi blamed the White House for the failure to come to terms. “Today, we are waiting for an important response on several concerns, including on action to crush the virus,” Pelosi said Monday in a statement. “Ten days after Secretary Mnuchin went on CNBC to declare that he was accepting our testing plan, the Administration still refuses to do so.”
Pelosi called on the White House to continue to work on a potential deal. “We must come to agreement as soon as possible,” she said. “But we cannot accept the Administration’s refusal to crush the virus, honor our heroes or put money in the pockets of the American people. The Democratic message to the American people is: “Help Is on the Way. It Will Be Safer, Bigger, Better and Retroactive.” It is a matter of life-or-death, and Democrats are deadly serious about the responsibility we face.”
Focus on lame duck: As hopes fade for a stimulus bill in the near term, lawmakers are turning their attention to the weeks after the election, when Congress will need to pass fiscal legislation ahead of a December 11 deadline to fund the federal government.
“The prospects will improve after the election once we get past the current unpleasantness that we go through every even numbered year,” Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said Sunday. “There’s a whole range of things that we all agree on. And I don’t know why we can’t at least do that.”
Not everyone agrees that a stimulus bill is likely to pass after November 3, however, with much depending on the results of the election. Surveying the various possible outcomes of the election. Bloomberg’s Timothy L. O'Brien and Nir Kaissar said Monday that one of the most likely outcomes – Biden winning with the Senate remaining in Republican hands – could mean no deal gets done. In that scenario, the economy is “left to its own devices, and a return to the pre-Covid economy is unlikely anytime soon,” they wrote.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-23--If the Recovery Is Self-Sustaining, Do We Need More Stimulus?

As lawmakers continue to battle over the size and scope of the next coronavirus relief bill , some experts are wondering just how much help the economy really needs .
While the White House continues to tout a V-shaped recovery that will sustain itself without further assistance , most economists say that while the U.S. may avoid a double-dip recession , policymakers are running the risk of producing a lackluster recovery if the government fails to provide substantial additional support .
A big concern , according to Kate Davidson and Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal , is repeating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when in the opinion of many economists fiscal support was reduced too soon .
The economy didn ’ t fall back into recession , but it did putter along with growth well below potential for years .
“ This is not a good time to have fiscal policy switch from being accommodative to creating a drag , ” former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told the Journal .
“ That ’ s what happened [ in 2008 ] , and it retarded the recovery.
” Different trajectories : Spending too little now could have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ below potential for a longer time in the future .
According to Louise Sheiner and Wendy Edelberg of the Brookings Institution , the economy will take about a decade to return to pre-pandemic levels in the absence of any additional support .
On the other hand , a $ 2 trillion package – roughly the size currently being negotiated by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin – would bring the economy back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021 .
The Fed gets vocal : Historically low interest rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tool for addressing recessions , and Fed officials have been speaking out in favor of more aggressive fiscal support for the economy .
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans recently said that policymakers must recognize the long-term effects of an ongoing pandemic : “ Even after the worst of the crisis passes , the scarring of families ’ balance sheets may weigh on spending and leave them further behind over the longer term.
” Earlier this week , Fed governor Lael Brainard made a case for substantially more federal spending : “ Continued targeted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an important factor in determining the strength of the recovery .
Apart from the course of the virus itself , the most significant downside risk to my outlook would be the failure of additional fiscal support to materialize .
Too little support would lead to a slower and weaker recovery .
Premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk allowing recessionary dynamics to become entrenched , holding back employment and spending , increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells , leading more businesses to shutter , and ultimately harming productive capacity .
”

As lawmakers continue to battle over the size and scope of the next coronavirus relief bill, some experts are wondering just how much help the economy really needs. While the White House continues to tout a V-shaped recovery that will sustain itself without further assistance, most economists say that while the U.S. may avoid a double-dip recession, policymakers are running the risk of producing a lackluster recovery if the government fails to provide substantial additional support.
A big concern, according to Kate Davidson and Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, is repeating the mistakes of the Great Recession, when in the opinion of many economists fiscal support was reduced too soon. The economy didn’t fall back into recession, but it did putter along with growth well below potential for years.
“This is not a good time to have fiscal policy switch from being accommodative to creating a drag,” former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told the Journal. “That’s what happened [in 2008], and it retarded the recovery.”
Different trajectories: Spending too little now could have considerable long-term costs as the economy remains below potential for a longer time in the future. According to Louise Sheiner and Wendy Edelberg of the Brookings Institution, the economy will take about a decade to return to pre-pandemic levels in the absence of any additional support. On the other hand, a $2 trillion package – roughly the size currently being negotiated by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin – would bring the economy back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.
The Fed gets vocal: Historically low interest rates have robbed central bankers of their primary tool for addressing recessions, and Fed officials have been speaking out in favor of more aggressive fiscal support for the economy. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans recently said that policymakers must recognize the long-term effects of an ongoing pandemic: “Even after the worst of the crisis passes, the scarring of families’ balance sheets may weigh on spending and leave them further behind over the longer term.”
Earlier this week, Fed governor Lael Brainard made a case for substantially more federal spending:
“Continued targeted support to replace lost incomes will be an important factor in determining the strength of the recovery. Apart from the course of the virus itself, the most significant downside risk to my outlook would be the failure of additional fiscal support to materialize. Too little support would lead to a slower and weaker recovery. Premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk allowing recessionary dynamics to become entrenched, holding back employment and spending, increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells, leading more businesses to shutter, and ultimately harming productive capacity.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-27--No Pre-Election Details on Trump’s Promised Tax Cuts

Add President Trump ’ s second term tax plan to the long list of items that he will release at @ @ @ @ @ .
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Monday that while administration officials have been @ @ @ @ @ there are no plans to release a proposal before the election .
“ Look , @ @ @ @ @ a lot , ” Kudlow told Fox News .
“ We ’ ve mentioned it @ @ @ @ @ about it .
I don ’ t see any reason why we have to put @ @ @ @ @ The Trump campaign has listed some proposals for tax and economic policy in Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ “ Cut Taxes to Boost Take-Home Pay ” and “ Create 10 Million New Jobs @ @ @ @ @ as Bloomberg noted , the campaign hasn ’ t provided any details on how it @ @ @ @ @

Add President Trump’s second term tax plan to the long list of items that he will release at some point in the future. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Monday that while administration officials have been discussing new tax cuts, there are no plans to release a proposal before the election.
“Look, we’ve put out a lot,” Kudlow told Fox News. “We’ve mentioned it. I’ve talked about it. I don’t see any reason why we have to put out a detailed plan.”
The Trump campaign has listed some proposals for tax and economic policy in Trump’s second term, including “Cut Taxes to Boost Take-Home Pay” and “Create 10 Million New Jobs in 10 Months.” But as Bloomberg noted, the campaign hasn’t provided any details on how it would accomplish those goals.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-26--White House: 'We're Not Going to Control the Pandemic'

“ We ’ re not going to control the pandemic , ” White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN ’ s “ State of the Union ” on Sunday .
“ We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines , therapeutics and other mitigation areas.
” '' It is a contagious virus , just like the flu , ” Meadows added .
Later in the interview , Meadows said : “ When we look at the number of cases increasing , what we have to do is make sure that we fight it with therapeutics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in terms of social distancing and masks when we can.
” Critics pounced , saying that Meadows ’ comments were an admission that the White House had capitulated in the fight to stop the spread of the coronavirus , or a further acknowledgment that the Trump administration has embraced a controversial strategy of trying to reach “ herd immunity , ” an approach that experts have warned could cost millions more lives and overwhelm the health-care system .
The comments also came after The New York Times reported this weekend that at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pence ’ s staff had tested positive for the virus in recent days and that Meadows “ had sought to keep news of the outbreak from becoming public.
” Pence is continuing to campaign rather than self-quarantine in the final days of the race , with the White House maintaining the he is an essential worker ( and thus is not flouting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance ) .
White flag ?
“ This was n't a slip by Meadows , it was a candid acknowledgement of what President Trump 's @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this crisis : to wave the white flag of defeat and hope that by ignoring it , the virus would simply go away , ” former vice president Joe Biden said in a statement Sunday afternoon .
“ It has n't , and it won't.
” Senate Majority Whip John Thune ( R-SD ) said , per Politico : “ We all have a responsibility as leaders to set an example that consists of doing the right things to stop the spread , and I think that ’ s encouraging the wearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We all know that stops the spread .
Science proves that.
” Trump insisted Monday that his administration was still looking to curb the spread of the virus and that it was Biden who was waving the white flag .
“ No , no , he has , ” Trump said in Allentown , Pennsylvania , after being asked about Biden ’ s charge .
“ He ’ s waved a white flag on life .
He doesn ’ t leave his basement .
This guy doesn ’ t leave his basement .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will tell you that.
” The president again claimed his administration has done an “ incredible job ” in combating the virus .
“ We are absolutely rounding the corner , other than the fake news wants to scare everybody , ” Trump said .
The chief of staff took a similar line of attack on Monday morning .
“ The only person waving a white flag , along with his white mask , is Joe Biden , ” Meadows told reporters , per Politico .
“ We ’ re going to defeat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to control it .
We will try to contain it as best we can , and if you look at the full context of what I was talking about , we need to make sure that we have therapeutics and vaccines . ''
He added : “ A national lockdown strategy or a national quarantine strategy that is proposed by the left is not effective [ and ] is not what ultimately [ will ] contain or control this virus .
So any suggestion that we ’ re waving … the white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this president.
” Trump has said that a vaccine is just weeks away , but experts note that a vaccine likely won ’ t be ready for mass distribution until the middle of next year .
Why it matters , part 1 : Meadows ’ comments explain so much of the Trump administration ’ s mystifying pandemic response , from its lack of a testing and tracing strategy to its push to reopen schools without investing in needed resources , writes Leana S. Wen , a visiting professor at George Washington University Milken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Washington Post .
But the administration plan , counting on vaccines and therapeutics , “ is riddled with problems , ” Wen says .
“ To begin with , a vaccine will be far from a silver bullet .
Even if it offers , say , 75 percent protection , we will need other public health measures to reduce virus spread .
Therapeutics , too , will have substantial limitations .
A medication that reduces mortality by 50 percent means that many still will die , and those who survive may still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s claims , there is no cure on the horizon .
Prevention will still be the best medicine.
” Why it matters , part 2 : The comments keep the presidential race focused on the pandemic and the administration ’ s response , to the apparent displeasure of the Trump campaign .
“ Meadows sh*t the bed again , ” one anonymous campaign adviser said , per CNN .

“We’re not going to control the pandemic,” White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas.”
"It is a contagious virus, just like the flu,” Meadows added.
Later in the interview, Meadows said: “When we look at the number of cases increasing, what we have to do is make sure that we fight it with therapeutics and vaccines, take proper mitigation factors, in terms of social distancing and masks when we can.”
Critics pounced, saying that Meadows’ comments were an admission that the White House had capitulated in the fight to stop the spread of the coronavirus, or a further acknowledgment that the Trump administration has embraced a controversial strategy of trying to reach “herd immunity,” an approach that experts have warned could cost millions more lives and overwhelm the health-care system.
The comments also came after The New York Times reported this weekend that at least four members of Vice President Mike Pence’s staff had tested positive for the virus in recent days and that Meadows “had sought to keep news of the outbreak from becoming public.” Pence is continuing to campaign rather than self-quarantine in the final days of the race, with the White House maintaining the he is an essential worker (and thus is not flouting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance).
White flag? “This wasn't a slip by Meadows, it was a candid acknowledgement of what President Trump's strategy has clearly been from the beginning of this crisis: to wave the white flag of defeat and hope that by ignoring it, the virus would simply go away,” former vice president Joe Biden said in a statement Sunday afternoon. “It hasn't, and it won't.”
Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-SD) said, per Politico: “We all have a responsibility as leaders to set an example that consists of doing the right things to stop the spread, and I think that’s encouraging the wearing of masks and encouraging social distancing. We all know that stops the spread. Science proves that.”
Trump insisted Monday that his administration was still looking to curb the spread of the virus and that it was Biden who was waving the white flag. “No, no, he has,” Trump said in Allentown, Pennsylvania, after being asked about Biden’s charge. “He’s waved a white flag on life. He doesn’t leave his basement. This guy doesn’t leave his basement. He is a pathetic candidate, I will tell you that.”
The president again claimed his administration has done an “incredible job” in combating the virus. “We are absolutely rounding the corner, other than the fake news wants to scare everybody,” Trump said.
The chief of staff took a similar line of attack on Monday morning. “The only person waving a white flag, along with his white mask, is Joe Biden,” Meadows told reporters, per Politico. “We’re going to defeat the virus. We’re not going to control it. We will try to contain it as best we can, and if you look at the full context of what I was talking about, we need to make sure that we have therapeutics and vaccines."
He added: “A national lockdown strategy or a national quarantine strategy that is proposed by the left is not effective [and] is not what ultimately [will] contain or control this virus. So any suggestion that we’re waving … the white flag is certainly not in keeping with this president.”
Trump has said that a vaccine is just weeks away, but experts note that a vaccine likely won’t be ready for mass distribution until the middle of next year.
Why it matters, part 1: Meadows’ comments explain so much of the Trump administration’s mystifying pandemic response, from its lack of a testing and tracing strategy to its push to reopen schools without investing in needed resources, writes Leana S. Wen, a visiting professor at George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, at The Washington Post.
But the administration plan, counting on vaccines and therapeutics, “is riddled with problems,” Wen says. “To begin with, a vaccine will be far from a silver bullet. Even if it offers, say, 75 percent protection, we will need other public health measures to reduce virus spread. Therapeutics, too, will have substantial limitations. A medication that reduces mortality by 50 percent means that many still will die, and those who survive may still live with long-term effects. Contrary to Trump’s claims, there is no cure on the horizon. Prevention will still be the best medicine.”
Why it matters, part 2: The comments keep the presidential race focused on the pandemic and the administration’s response, to the apparent displeasure of the Trump campaign. “Meadows sh*t the bed again,” one anonymous campaign adviser said, per CNN.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-28--Stimulus Failure Sets Up Post-Election Clash

With a coronavirus relief bill now pushed to the back burner , it looks like Congress will have to address two major fiscal issues in the lame-duck session following Election Day : the roughly $ 2 trillion relief package still being hashed out by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , and legislation to prevent the government from shutting down when a stop-gap funding deal expires on December 11 .
As Roll Call ’ s Jennifer Shutt reports Wednesday , lawmakers kept the stimulus and government funding packages separate earlier this year , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ end of September that extended funding for the federal government until mid-December .
But in the lame-duck session following the election , that may change .
Pelosi has signaled that the two issues may end up being addressed at the same time .
“ In the lame duck we ’ ll have to pass stimulus or we ’ ll have to put provisions in the appropriations bill to keep government open , ” she said earlier this month .
Trouble ahead ?
President Trump has predicted that he will sign “ the best @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” after the election , but there are serious questions about how those negotiations could play out , with much depending on how things go at the ballot box .
If Trump loses , it may be difficult if not impossible to come up with a deal , given the president ’ s sometimes erratic behavior , which could become more pronounced following a bruising defeat .
( “ He throws fits almost every day as it is ; it 'd be hard to tell the difference , ” Sen. Patrick J. Leahy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week . )
If conditions in Washington — including a Republican-controlled Senate that has shown little interest in passing another multi-trillion-dollar relief bill — make it impossible to pass a stimulus bill in the lame-duck session , lawmakers may follow Pelosi ’ s lead by including crucial relief spending such as unemployment aid and small business loans in the government funding bill .
That may simply set up another clash , with lawmakers fighting over funding levels for both the government and the relief package .
House Republicans opposed the inclusion of $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the stop-gap funding bill a few months ago , and while some have signaled that they would be willing to change their minds , negotiating final numbers could be difficult and time consuming — a particularly challenging task during a lame-duck session .
Threat of a shutdown : A major clash between the two sides could result in a government shutdown .
“ If party leaders and the White House can ’ t reach agreement on at least another stopgap measure before Dec. 11 , a partial government shutdown would begin , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more disruptive than the 35-day shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019 that began over a border wall funding dispute.
” Another way out : G. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center tells Shutt that he doesn ’ t think Congress will pass either a relief package or a full government funding bill this year .
“ It 's too much too quickly , ” he said .
But that doesn ’ t mean a shutdown is likely .
Instead , Congress could follow the time-honored tradition of punting on a difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sweetened with a bit of relief spending .
“ Something in my gut tells me it 's a continuing resolution with an adjustment for COVID , ” Hoagland said .

With a coronavirus relief bill now pushed to the back burner, it looks like Congress will have to address two major fiscal issues in the lame-duck session following Election Day: the roughly $2 trillion relief package still being hashed out by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and legislation to prevent the government from shutting down when a stop-gap funding deal expires on December 11.
As Roll Call’s Jennifer Shutt reports Wednesday, lawmakers kept the stimulus and government funding packages separate earlier this year, with Congress successfully passing a bill at the end of September that extended funding for the federal government until mid-December. But in the lame-duck session following the election, that may change.
Pelosi has signaled that the two issues may end up being addressed at the same time. “In the lame duck we’ll have to pass stimulus or we’ll have to put provisions in the appropriations bill to keep government open,” she said earlier this month.
Trouble ahead? President Trump has predicted that he will sign “the best stimulus package you’ve ever seen” after the election, but there are serious questions about how those negotiations could play out, with much depending on how things go at the ballot box. If Trump loses, it may be difficult if not impossible to come up with a deal, given the president’s sometimes erratic behavior, which could become more pronounced following a bruising defeat. (“He throws fits almost every day as it is; it'd be hard to tell the difference,” Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, a Vermont Democrat, said last week.)
If conditions in Washington — including a Republican-controlled Senate that has shown little interest in passing another multi-trillion-dollar relief bill — make it impossible to pass a stimulus bill in the lame-duck session, lawmakers may follow Pelosi’s lead by including crucial relief spending such as unemployment aid and small business loans in the government funding bill.
That may simply set up another clash, with lawmakers fighting over funding levels for both the government and the relief package. House Republicans opposed the inclusion of $250 billion in pandemic relief funds in the stop-gap funding bill a few months ago, and while some have signaled that they would be willing to change their minds, negotiating final numbers could be difficult and time consuming — a particularly challenging task during a lame-duck session.
Threat of a shutdown: A major clash between the two sides could result in a government shutdown. “If party leaders and the White House can’t reach agreement on at least another stopgap measure before Dec. 11, a partial government shutdown would begin,” Shutt says. “That would be more disruptive than the 35-day shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019 that began over a border wall funding dispute.”
Another way out: G. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center tells Shutt that he doesn’t think Congress will pass either a relief package or a full government funding bill this year. “It's too much too quickly,” he said. But that doesn’t mean a shutdown is likely. Instead, Congress could follow the time-honored tradition of punting on a difficult issue by passing another stop-gap funding bill, sweetened with a bit of relief spending. “Something in my gut tells me it's a continuing resolution with an adjustment for COVID,” Hoagland said.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-27--Poll of the Day: Grading the Government Response to the Coronavirus

Most people think public institutions have improved their responses to the Covid-19 crisis – except for the federal government .
@ @ @ @ @ government 's handling of the pandemic has gotten significantly worse over time , ” Margaret @ @ @ @ @ , referring to the latest Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index .
“ The findings suggest people see @ @ @ @ @ team as one of the biggest impediments to turning things around .
”

Most people think public institutions have improved their responses to the Covid-19 crisis – except for the federal government.
“Americans believe the federal government's handling of the pandemic has gotten significantly worse over time,” Margaret Talev of Axios wrote Tuesday, referring to the latest Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index. “The findings suggest people see President Trump and his political team as one of the biggest impediments to turning things around.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-29--Economy Expands at Record Pace Following Historic Covid Decline

The U.S. economy grew at an unprecedented 7.4 % pace from the second to the third quarter , the Commerce Department announced Thursday .
On an annualized basis , the growth rate was 33.1 % — the highest annualized growth rate on record .
The historic growth came on the heels of an equally historic decline the previous quarter , when the economy shrank by 9.1 % , or 31.4 % on an annualized basis , as businesses closed their doors and people stayed home amid the Covid-19 pandemic .
Although the latest numbers are undoubtedly positive , they come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ took great pains to explain Thursday .
Some important points to consider : The U.S. economy is still in a deep hole : Gross domestic product is still about 3.5 % below the level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 , the last reporting period before the coronavirus pandemic hit , Daniel Vernazza , chief economist at UniCredit Bank , said in a note Thursday .
“ That means we are still down almost as much as we were during the height of the Great Recession in 2008-09 , ” Diane Swonk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tweeted .
CNBC analyst Ron Insana noted that the economy is now about as big as it was in the first quarter of 2018 .
“ Q3 GDP would have to have been +53 % to bring the economy to pre-pandemic levels , ” he said .
( See the chart from J.P. Morgan below . )
The economy is slowing : The GDP report gives us a look at what was happening from July to September , but conditions have changed since then .
While the summer months were powered by business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid to the unemployed and small business owners , much of that positive momentum has slowed or even reversed .
Restrictions on commerce are returning as the coronavirus surges again , and the failure of political leaders to agree on a new round of relief spending means that millions of unemployed workers face sharp reductions in income and spending .
A K-shaped recovery : There are about 11 million fewer people on payrolls than before the pandemic hit , and much of the economic suffering is concentrated among low-income , less-well-educated workers in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be especially hard hit by the lack of federal support and a resurgence of the coronavirus and could take years to recover anything like its pre-pandemic levels of employment and income .
Layoffs persist : In a separate report Thursday , the Labor Department announced that 751,000 people applied for state unemployment benefits last week , down 40,000 from the week before .
Another 360,000 people made claims Pandemic Unemployment Assistance , the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed , bringing the total of new filers to about 1.1 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for which new jobless claims serve as a proxy , is positive , falling steadily from record highs in the early days of the pandemic , job losses remain at extraordinarily high levels — higher than we saw at the peak of previous recessions .
Lower expectations for the fourth quarter : Economists don ’ t expect to see a repeat of the third quarter .
Michael Feroli of J..P Morgan said in a note to clients that “ a large double-digit increase in 3Q GDP was effectively ‘ baked in the cake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the middle of the summer ” thanks to the powerful rebound in consumption throughout the economy .
Looking ahead , the data should look more normal , with consumption pushed higher by an elevated savings rate and pulled lower by a resurgent coronavirus .
“ On net , we are holding on to our 3.0 % forecast for 4Q GDP , ” Feroli said .
A political football : The numbers are dramatic , and politicians were quick to frame the report in ways that seemed most advantageous .
A sample : • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just announced .
Biggest and Best in the History of our Country , and not even close .
Next year will be FANTASTIC !
!
!
However , Sleepy Joe Biden and his proposed record setting tax increase , would kill it all .
So glad this great GDP number came out before November 3rd.
” • Democratic nominee Joe Biden : “ GDP rose last quarter , but visits to food banks haven ’ t slowed , and poverty has grown .
We ’ re on track for the worst economic downturn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump is on track to be the first president since Herbert Hoover to leave office with less jobs than when he came in.
” • White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow : “ Since the data going back to 1947 , we 've never had anything remotely close to this ... this thing was kicking on all cylinders .
...
It 's a strong , strong recovery .
The V-shaped concept that I coined a while back [ is ] looking pretty good right now.
” • House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ truth : our economy is in a crisis the likes of which we have not seen in our lifetimes .
President Trump may claim that a 2.9 % decrease in real GDP over the past year is somehow a vindication of his leadership through this crisis , but tens of millions of American workers and small businesses are living the economic consequences of his failure .
... Americans must not be fooled by the misleading rhetoric President Trump has embraced .
”

The U.S. economy grew at an unprecedented 7.4% pace from the second to the third quarter, the Commerce Department announced Thursday. On an annualized basis, the growth rate was 33.1% — the highest annualized growth rate on record.
The historic growth came on the heels of an equally historic decline the previous quarter, when the economy shrank by 9.1%, or 31.4% on an annualized basis, as businesses closed their doors and people stayed home amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
Although the latest numbers are undoubtedly positive, they come with lots of caveats, as economists took great pains to explain Thursday. Some important points to consider:
The U.S. economy is still in a deep hole: Gross domestic product is still about 3.5% below the level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019, the last reporting period before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Daniel Vernazza, chief economist at UniCredit Bank, said in a note Thursday.
“That means we are still down almost as much as we were during the height of the Great Recession in 2008-09,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, tweeted.
CNBC analyst Ron Insana noted that the economy is now about as big as it was in the first quarter of 2018. “Q3 GDP would have to have been +53% to bring the economy to pre-pandemic levels,” he said. (See the chart from J.P. Morgan below.)
The economy is slowing: The GDP report gives us a look at what was happening from July to September, but conditions have changed since then. While the summer months were powered by business reopenings and a massive flow of federal aid to the unemployed and small business owners, much of that positive momentum has slowed or even reversed. Restrictions on commerce are returning as the coronavirus surges again, and the failure of political leaders to agree on a new round of relief spending means that millions of unemployed workers face sharp reductions in income and spending.
A K-shaped recovery: There are about 11 million fewer people on payrolls than before the pandemic hit, and much of the economic suffering is concentrated among low-income, less-well-educated workers in the service sector. That segment will be especially hard hit by the lack of federal support and a resurgence of the coronavirus and could take years to recover anything like its pre-pandemic levels of employment and income.
Layoffs persist: In a separate report Thursday, the Labor Department announced that 751,000 people applied for state unemployment benefits last week, down 40,000 from the week before. Another 360,000 people made claims Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed, bringing the total of new filers to about 1.1 million. While the trend in layoffs, for which new jobless claims serve as a proxy, is positive, falling steadily from record highs in the early days of the pandemic, job losses remain at extraordinarily high levels — higher than we saw at the peak of previous recessions.
Lower expectations for the fourth quarter: Economists don’t expect to see a repeat of the third quarter. Michael Feroli of J..P Morgan said in a note to clients that “a large double-digit increase in 3Q GDP was effectively ‘baked in the cake’ by the time we got to the middle of the summer” thanks to the powerful rebound in consumption throughout the economy. Looking ahead, the data should look more normal, with consumption pushed higher by an elevated savings rate and pulled lower by a resurgent coronavirus. “On net, we are holding on to our 3.0% forecast for 4Q GDP,” Feroli said.
A political football: The numbers are dramatic, and politicians were quick to frame the report in ways that seemed most advantageous. A sample:


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-29--Pelosi and Mnuchin Battle Over Stimulus Failure

With five days to go before Election Day and no chance of a coronavirus relief package getting done before then , President Trump , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin played another round of the stimulus stalemate blame game on Thursday — while still dangling hope that the legislation could get done after the election .
Trump again blamed Pelosi for the lack of a deal and promised “ a very big package ” right after the election .
“ Once we get past the election , we ’ re going to get it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may not have to be .
Depending on -- if we win the House , it won ’ t have to be .
Right after the election , we ’ ll get it one way or the other , ” Trump reportedly said on “ The Jon Taffer Podcast.
” But in a letter to Mnuchin , Pelosi indicated just how far apart the two sides remain after months of back and forth .
She said that Democrats “ are still awaiting the Trump Administration ’ s promised responses on multiple items of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ listed a litany of areas where the two sides still had unresolved differences , including a national strategy for coronavirus testing , tracing and treatment ; aid to state and local governments ; enhanced unemployment insurance benefits ; child care funding ; tax credits ; money for schools to reopen safely ; and liability protections for businesses .
“ In other words , ” Politico ’ s Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman noted , “ Pelosi is suggesting Mnuchin and the administration owe her answers on nearly every contentious issue in the Covid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the two sides are nowhere close .
Not at all.
” Even so , Pelosi urged Mnuchin to respond .
“ Your responses are critical for our negotiations to continue , ” she wrote .
“ The President ’ s words that ‘ after the election , we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen ’ only have meaning if he can get Mitch McConnell to take his hand off the pause button and get Senate Republican Chairmen moving toward agreement with their House counterparts.
” Mnuchin responded with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , accusing Pelosi of playing politics instead of genuinely pursuing a deal .
“ I woke up this morning and read your letter to me in the press .
Because you sent it to my office at midnight and simultaneously released it to the press , I can unfortunately inly conclude that it is a political stunt.
” Mnuchin said that , contrary to Pelosi ’ s claims , the administration had accepted her proposals on testing , with “ minor comments , ” and had responded on contact tracing as well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in other areas and hindering relief efforts by refusing to accept piecemeal legislation .
“ Your ALL OR NONE approach is hurting hard-working Americans who need help NOW , ” he wrote .
A Pelosi spokesperson told The Washington Post that the White House had still not lived up to Mnuchin ’ s promise to accept language on crushing the virus and said it is “ disappointing ” that the administration issued Mnuchin ’ s letter instead of “ meaningful responses to meet the needs of the American people.
” Chances of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speaker told reporters at her weekly press conference that she would like to reach a deal in the “ lame duck ” congressional session after the election , in part to allow a President Joe Biden to pursue his agenda .
“ I want a bill for two reasons .
First and foremost the American people need help .
They need real help .
And second of all , we have plenty of work to do in a Joe Biden administration ...
So we want to have as clean a slate as possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But she indicated that she would not soften her demands for a comprehensive package during a lame duck session , even with the prospect of additional legislation after Biden takes office .
What it all means : Pelosi ’ s letter shows the negotiators didn ’ t make as much progress as some of their earlier comments suggested , meaning that a deal during the lame duck is far from a sure bet .
“ Where the talks go after the election is wholly uncertain — a comeback win would award Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also make him less invested in an agreement and less willing to compromise to get there , ” Andrew Taylor of the Associated Press says .
Thursday ’ s GDP report may also make it harder to reach a bipartisan deal , as Republicans touted the numbers as evidence that their plans to reopen the economy have worked while Democrats said the data showed that the CARES Act passed in March helped and that more federal assistance is needed .

With five days to go before Election Day and no chance of a coronavirus relief package getting done before then, President Trump, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin played another round of the stimulus stalemate blame game on Thursday — while still dangling hope that the legislation could get done after the election.
Trump again blamed Pelosi for the lack of a deal and promised “a very big package” right after the election. “Once we get past the election, we’re going to get it. It may be bipartisan, it may not have to be. Depending on -- if we win the House, it won’t have to be. Right after the election, we’ll get it one way or the other,” Trump reportedly said on “The Jon Taffer Podcast.”
But in a letter to Mnuchin, Pelosi indicated just how far apart the two sides remain after months of back and forth. She said that Democrats “are still awaiting the Trump Administration’s promised responses on multiple items of critical importance.”
Pelosi’s letter listed a litany of areas where the two sides still had unresolved differences, including a national strategy for coronavirus testing, tracing and treatment; aid to state and local governments; enhanced unemployment insurance benefits; child care funding; tax credits; money for schools to reopen safely; and liability protections for businesses.
“In other words,” Politico’s Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman noted, “Pelosi is suggesting Mnuchin and the administration owe her answers on nearly every contentious issue in the Covid relief package. So -- no, the two sides are nowhere close. Not at all.”
Even so, Pelosi urged Mnuchin to respond. “Your responses are critical for our negotiations to continue,” she wrote. “The President’s words that ‘after the election, we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen’ only have meaning if he can get Mitch McConnell to take his hand off the pause button and get Senate Republican Chairmen moving toward agreement with their House counterparts.”
Mnuchin responded with a letter of his own in the afternoon, accusing Pelosi of playing politics instead of genuinely pursuing a deal. “I woke up this morning and read your letter to me in the press. Because you sent it to my office at midnight and simultaneously released it to the press, I can unfortunately inly conclude that it is a political stunt.”
Mnuchin said that, contrary to Pelosi’s claims, the administration had accepted her proposals on testing, with “minor comments,” and had responded on contact tracing as well. He accused Pelosi of refusing to compromise in other areas and hindering relief efforts by refusing to accept piecemeal legislation. “Your ALL OR NONE approach is hurting hard-working Americans who need help NOW,” he wrote.
A Pelosi spokesperson told The Washington Post that the White House had still not lived up to Mnuchin’s promise to accept language on crushing the virus and said it is “disappointing” that the administration issued Mnuchin’s letter instead of “meaningful responses to meet the needs of the American people.”
Chances of a “lame duck” deal? The speaker told reporters at her weekly press conference that she would like to reach a deal in the “lame duck” congressional session after the election, in part to allow a President Joe Biden to pursue his agenda. “I want a bill for two reasons. First and foremost the American people need help. They need real help. And second of all, we have plenty of work to do in a Joe Biden administration ... So we want to have as clean a slate as possible going into January,” Pelosi said.
But she indicated that she would not soften her demands for a comprehensive package during a lame duck session, even with the prospect of additional legislation after Biden takes office.
What it all means: Pelosi’s letter shows the negotiators didn’t make as much progress as some of their earlier comments suggested, meaning that a deal during the lame duck is far from a sure bet. “Where the talks go after the election is wholly uncertain — a comeback win would award Trump with greater leverage but a loss could also make him less invested in an agreement and less willing to compromise to get there,” Andrew Taylor of the Associated Press says.
Thursday’s GDP report may also make it harder to reach a bipartisan deal, as Republicans touted the numbers as evidence that their plans to reopen the economy have worked while Democrats said the data showed that the CARES Act passed in March helped and that more federal assistance is needed.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-27--Trump Promises Best Stimulus Package Ever — After the Election

President Trump predicted Tuesday that he ’ ll sign off on a coronavirus relief package after the election — and not just any relief package .
“ After the election , we ’ ll get the best stimulus package you ’ ve ever seen , ” Trump told reporters .
Trump blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) for the lack of a deal thus far , again pointing to Democratic efforts to provide more aid money to states and cities facing a pandemic-related budget crunch .
“ Nancy Pelosi is only interested in bailing out badly run , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s all she ’ s interested in .
She ’ s not interested in helping the people , ” Trump said , adding that Republicans would win control the House as a result .
“ We ’ ll take back the House .
We ’ ll hold the Senate .
We ’ ll hold the White House , ” Trump maintained .
The reality : Trump ’ s pre-election bluster is at odds with current election forecasts , which point to the GOP losing seats in both the House and Senate and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reelection .
At the same time , prospects of a stimulus deal have clearly evaporated , for now .
Both the House and Senate have left Washington , D.C. until after the election and negotiations between Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin “ have largely been shelved after repeated failed attempts to broker a compromise , ” The Washington Post reports : “ Their talks showed scant evidence of progress , but neither Pelosi nor Mnuchin seems to want to be the one to say it ’ s over .
Pelosi continues to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election that would include another round of $ 1,200 stimulus checks , among other things .
But at the same time , her rhetoric has shifted in recent days to emphasize the possibility of a bigger and better relief bill passing in future , with retroactive benefits — a scenario that would seem possible only under a Biden administration.
” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) on Tuesday morning suggested to Politico that negotiators may never have been all that close to agreement : “ That was a very complicated negotiation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on who you talk to , I ’ m not sure they got very close.
” The bottom line : With Election Day a week away , talk of a coronavirus relief deal is now either in the past or future tense .
Nothing is happening right now .
“ We ’ ll come back in November , ” said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby ( R-AL ) .
“ The question might be , will there be something then ?
”

President Trump predicted Tuesday that he’ll sign off on a coronavirus relief package after the election — and not just any relief package. “After the election, we’ll get the best stimulus package you’ve ever seen,” Trump told reporters.
Trump blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for the lack of a deal thus far, again pointing to Democratic efforts to provide more aid money to states and cities facing a pandemic-related budget crunch. “Nancy Pelosi is only interested in bailing out badly run, crime-ridden Democrat cities and states. That’s all she’s interested in. She’s not interested in helping the people,” Trump said, adding that Republicans would win control the House as a result.
“We’ll take back the House. We’ll hold the Senate. We’ll hold the White House,” Trump maintained.
The reality: Trump’s pre-election bluster is at odds with current election forecasts, which point to the GOP losing seats in both the House and Senate and have him facing a difficult path to reelection. At the same time, prospects of a stimulus deal have clearly evaporated, for now. Both the House and Senate have left Washington, D.C. until after the election and negotiations between Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin “have largely been shelved after repeated failed attempts to broker a compromise,” The Washington Post reports:
“Their talks showed scant evidence of progress, but neither Pelosi nor Mnuchin seems to want to be the one to say it’s over. Pelosi continues to insist she wants a deal before the election that would include another round of $1,200 stimulus checks, among other things. But at the same time, her rhetoric has shifted in recent days to emphasize the possibility of a bigger and better relief bill passing in future, with retroactive benefits — a scenario that would seem possible only under a Biden administration.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Tuesday morning suggested to Politico that negotiators may never have been all that close to agreement: “That was a very complicated negotiation,” he said. “Depending on who you talk to, I’m not sure they got very close.”
The bottom line: With Election Day a week away, talk of a coronavirus relief deal is now either in the past or future tense. Nothing is happening right now. “We’ll come back in November,” said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL). “The question might be, will there be something then?”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-27--Wall Street Is Counting on More Government Spending

Traders on Wall Street are placing their bets on a “ blue wave ” come Election Day .
While Joe Biden ’ s plan for higher taxes on business and the wealthy doesn ’ t sit well with many on Wall Street , Politico ’ s Ben White says the prospect of a substantial and well-targeted stimulus package outweighs those concerns .
Investors are betting that Democrats can win control of the White House and both chambers of Congress , resulting in a new round of government spending worth as much as $ 3 trillion – enough to carry the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like pre-pandemic levels .
“ Far from panicking at the prospect of a Biden win , ” White says , “ Wall Street CEOs , traders and investment managers now mostly say they would be fine with a change in the White House that reduces the Trump noise , lowers the threat of further trade wars and ensures a continuation of the government spending they ’ ve seen in recent years.
” Alternative scenarios : Some Wall Streeters aren ’ t convinced that a Democratic sweep would be best and would prefer instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ act as a brake on spending .
“ The thing I ’ m concerned about with the blue wave is that we go too far on fiscal support and we don ’ t act responsibly , ” one executive told White .
“ A Biden win and the GOP holding the Senate would temper a lot of that .
And everybody actually agrees that we need more stimulus.
” Divided government could have its downsides , though .
Richard Bernstein , former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch , told White that Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the worst scenario because Washington will become like sclerotic Europe and get nothing done .
Uncertainty will remain an investment theme .
And deregulation likely reverses.
” A Trump win , on the other hand , could cause a powerful reaction on Wall Street , with traders celebrating the continuation of lower taxes and weakened regulations with a big jump in the markets .
However , the run-up may not last , White says , as the prospect of heightened trade wars and a lingering pandemic chip away at investor confidence .

Traders on Wall Street are placing their bets on a “blue wave” come Election Day.
While Joe Biden’s plan for higher taxes on business and the wealthy doesn’t sit well with many on Wall Street, Politico’s Ben White says the prospect of a substantial and well-targeted stimulus package outweighs those concerns. Investors are betting that Democrats can win control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, resulting in a new round of government spending worth as much as $3 trillion – enough to carry the economy until conditions can return to something like pre-pandemic levels.
“Far from panicking at the prospect of a Biden win,” White says, “Wall Street CEOs, traders and investment managers now mostly say they would be fine with a change in the White House that reduces the Trump noise, lowers the threat of further trade wars and ensures a continuation of the government spending they’ve seen in recent years.”
Alternative scenarios: Some Wall Streeters aren’t convinced that a Democratic sweep would be best and would prefer instead to see divided control in Washington to act as a brake on spending. “The thing I’m concerned about with the blue wave is that we go too far on fiscal support and we don’t act responsibly,” one executive told White. “A Biden win and the GOP holding the Senate would temper a lot of that. And everybody actually agrees that we need more stimulus.”
Divided government could have its downsides, though. Richard Bernstein, former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, told White that Republicans maintaining control of the Senate “is the worst scenario because Washington will become like sclerotic Europe and get nothing done. Uncertainty will remain an investment theme. And deregulation likely reverses.”
A Trump win, on the other hand, could cause a powerful reaction on Wall Street, with traders celebrating the continuation of lower taxes and weakened regulations with a big jump in the markets. However, the run-up may not last, White says, as the prospect of heightened trade wars and a lingering pandemic chip away at investor confidence.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-30--When to Expect the Next Coronavirus Relief Bill

When can Americans expect to see the next coronavirus relief bill , which is expected to include as much as $ 2 trillion in aid for the unemployed , state and local governments , small businesses and efforts to contain the Covid-19 pandemic ?
The main players in Washington sent mixed signals Friday , suggesting it could be weeks before any progress is made .
President Trump repeated his claim that he expected a “ tremendous ” coronavirus relief package to come “ immediately after the election , ” but the lawmakers who will make or break the deal appear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) said Friday that he expects to address another round of Covid-related spending “ right at the beginning of the year , ” and that the legislation would focus on aid to small businesses and hospitals facing a resurgence of the virus .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) said she was in more of a hurry , telling MSNBC that she wanted to have a bill passed before the presidential inauguration in January , adding that “ we don ’ t want to have to wait @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Is a deal even possible ?
A senior GOP aide told The Hill conditions on Capitol Hill could well improve after the election , with Republicans less worried about angering their supporters by making a deal with Pelosi that involves spending on Democratic priorities such as aid for state and local governments .
At the same time , Democrats will lose their motivation to deny Trump a victory by passing a bill , making it easier for both sides to come to an agreement .
“ The motivation level on both sides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out , but I think either way we ’ ll do something .
The question is how much , ” Sen. John Thune ( R-SD ) said .
But others have their doubts .
A Democratic aide said that Republicans wouldn ’ t have much interest in making a deal if Democrats record big gains in the election .
“ I don ’ t think there is a package , period , if they lose , ” the source told The Hill .
Instead , the aide expected Republicans to return to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , refusing to pass a substantial relief package in the name of fiscal austerity .

When can Americans expect to see the next coronavirus relief bill, which is expected to include as much as $2 trillion in aid for the unemployed, state and local governments, small businesses and efforts to contain the Covid-19 pandemic? The main players in Washington sent mixed signals Friday, suggesting it could be weeks before any progress is made.
President Trump repeated his claim that he expected a “tremendous” coronavirus relief package to come “immediately after the election,” but the lawmakers who will make or break the deal appear to have different plans.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Friday that he expects to address another round of Covid-related spending “right at the beginning of the year,” and that the legislation would focus on aid to small businesses and hospitals facing a resurgence of the virus.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said she was in more of a hurry, telling MSNBC that she wanted to have a bill passed before the presidential inauguration in January, adding that “we don’t want to have to wait that long, because people have needs.”
Is a deal even possible? A senior GOP aide told The Hill conditions on Capitol Hill could well improve after the election, with Republicans less worried about angering their supporters by making a deal with Pelosi that involves spending on Democratic priorities such as aid for state and local governments. At the same time, Democrats will lose their motivation to deny Trump a victory by passing a bill, making it easier for both sides to come to an agreement.
“The motivation level on both sides will depend on how the election comes out, but I think either way we’ll do something. The question is how much,” Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said.
But others have their doubts. A Democratic aide said that Republicans wouldn’t have much interest in making a deal if Democrats record big gains in the election. “I don’t think there is a package, period, if they lose,” the source told The Hill. Instead, the aide expected Republicans to return to the same stance they took with President Obama, refusing to pass a substantial relief package in the name of fiscal austerity.