thefiscaltimes--2020-03-09--Why the Next Recession Could Be Different

With economists and investors worried that the coronavirus outbreak could spark a global recession , Harvard ’ s Ken Rogoff warns that the downturn could be significantly different than the last one over a decade ago .
That recession was driven primarily by a sharp reduction in demand as homeowners and investors around the world ran for cover amid plunging housing prices .
This time around , in addition to a demand-side shock , there will likely be a supply shock as China ’ s economy slows , Rogoff says , creating bottlenecks and eventually higher prices throughout the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not 2008 housing bubble , with inflation returning as a potential threat .
“ In that case , generalized shortages – something that some countries have not seen since the gas lines of 1970s – could ultimately push inflation up , not down , ” Rogoff writes .
In whatever form the recession arrives , governments will need to “ engage in massive deficit spending , ” Rogoff says , in order to prop up both health care systems and broader economies .
And that ’ s why the Trump administration ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal budget in a growing economy – and instead pushing the annual federal deficit over $ 1 trillion a year with tax cuts for the rich and big increases in spending – is such a big problem .
“ The point of saving for a rainy day is to spend when it rains , and preparing for pandemics , wars , climate crises , and other out-of-the-box events is precisely why open-ended deficit spending during booms is dangerous , ” Rogoff writes .
Yes , but : Critics were quick to point out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thesis : The bond market is telling us that inflation is nowhere on the horizon , and historically low interest rates mean that even massive fiscal stimulus will come at very low cost .
“ Has Ken Rogoff bothered to even look at where long-term Treasury yields are ?
, ” asked Skanda Amarnath , director of research at Employ America , a liberal-leaning group that pushes the Fed to be less vigilant about inflation and more concerned about jobs .
Indeed , with Treasury rates hitting record lows and oil prices plummeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the greatest worry right now .
“ Traders are learning that the prospect of collapsing prices can be just as painful as inflation , ” Bloomberg ’ s Brian Chappatta said Monday in his review of the day ’ s record moves in the bond market .
Still , while Rogoff admits that inflation doesn ’ t look like a problem right now – “ Admittedly , the initial conditions for containing generalized inflation today are extraordinarily favorable , ” he says – he argues that the coronavirus could end up marking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ globalization that produced lower prices for all kinds of goods around the world , and the beginning of a new era of trade conflict , increasing prices and rising interest rates .

With economists and investors worried that the coronavirus outbreak could spark a global recession, Harvard’s Ken Rogoff warns that the downturn could be significantly different than the last one over a decade ago.
That recession was driven primarily by a sharp reduction in demand as homeowners and investors around the world ran for cover amid plunging housing prices. This time around, in addition to a demand-side shock, there will likely be a supply shock as China’s economy slows, Rogoff says, creating bottlenecks and eventually higher prices throughout the global supply chain. Think 1974 oil crisis, not 2008 housing bubble, with inflation returning as a potential threat.
“In that case, generalized shortages – something that some countries have not seen since the gas lines of 1970s – could ultimately push inflation up, not down,” Rogoff writes.
In whatever form the recession arrives, governments will need to “engage in massive deficit spending,” Rogoff says, in order to prop up both health care systems and broader economies. And that’s why the Trump administration’s failure to get control of the federal budget in a growing economy – and instead pushing the annual federal deficit over $1 trillion a year with tax cuts for the rich and big increases in spending – is such a big problem.
“The point of saving for a rainy day is to spend when it rains, and preparing for pandemics, wars, climate crises, and other out-of-the-box events is precisely why open-ended deficit spending during booms is dangerous,” Rogoff writes.
Yes, but: Critics were quick to point out a serious flaw in Rogoff’s thesis: The bond market is telling us that inflation is nowhere on the horizon, and historically low interest rates mean that even massive fiscal stimulus will come at very low cost. “Has Ken Rogoff bothered to even look at where long-term Treasury yields are?,” asked Skanda Amarnath, director of research at Employ America, a liberal-leaning group that pushes the Fed to be less vigilant about inflation and more concerned about jobs.
Indeed, with Treasury rates hitting record lows and oil prices plummeting, the markets are signaling that deflation is the greatest worry right now. “Traders are learning that the prospect of collapsing prices can be just as painful as inflation,” Bloomberg’s Brian Chappatta said Monday in his review of the day’s record moves in the bond market.
Still, while Rogoff admits that inflation doesn’t look like a problem right now – “Admittedly, the initial conditions for containing generalized inflation today are extraordinarily favorable,” he says – he argues that the coronavirus could end up marking the end of a four-decade process of globalization that produced lower prices for all kinds of goods around the world, and the beginning of a new era of trade conflict, increasing prices and rising interest rates.


A Coronavirus Recession?

Stocks cratered on Monday , suffering their worst daily drop in more than nine years , as the spread of the coronavirus and a clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil prices left investors again looking for safety .
The S & P 500 fell 7.6 % , its worst daily decline since 2008 .
The market plunge triggered an automatic 15-minute halt to trading shortly after the opening bell , reportedly the first such pause in 23 years .
As investors fled to safe havens , the yields on Treasury securities continued their recent slide , with rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and briefly touching a stunning all-time low of 0.318 % .
( “ This is the market 's way of begging Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to invest in projects that will improve America 's economic health over the long term , ” Axios ’ s Felix Salmon wrote . )
The 30-year rate fell below 1 % .
“ The world economy essentially just got a one-two punch to the face , ” The Washington Post ’ s Heather Long wrote .
Rising recession risk : The fear is that those dual blows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the virus disrupts business and forces people to hunker down at home and an oil price war threatens energy companies in the United States and elsewhere .
The action in stock , bond and energy markets all signal that investors believe the recession risk is very real .
“ We are going to take a hit .
It might not be a full out recession , but we ’ re moving closer to that , ” economist Claudia Sahm , an expert on recessions , told the Post .
Bloomberg ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more pessimistic : “ Let ’ s just say it : The longest economic expansion in U.S. history may already be over , killed by Covid-19.
” What the Trump administration might do : President Trump last week signed an $ 8.3 billion bill to fund the public health response to the virus , but the White House is under intense pressure to deliver a broader plan addressing both the health and economic concerns stemming from the outbreak .
Trump and his top economic adviser , Larry Kudlow , have both downplayed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House still does not have an economic response plan .
But The Washington Post reports that the White House National Economic Council and Treasury Department have been discussing potential actions to help limit the economic damage for 10 days .
White House advisers were reportedly set to present the president with a list of policy options on Monday afternoon .
Those options reportedly include paid sick leave , deferred taxes on hard-hit industries and emergency cash assistance for small businesses .
Trump has also discussed the possibility of a payroll tax cut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attention to a short-term expansion of paid sick leave “ because it would cost less , ” Bloomberg News reports .
White House officials reportedly have also considered providing money to geographic regions of the country hurt most by the virus .
( Update : At a Monday evening press conference , Trump said he would discuss a payroll tax cut with congressional Republicans on Tuesday . )
“ The timing of any of the economic measures is unclear , but they would likely be rolled out on a step-by-step basis , beginning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected , then expanding to companies and workers affected by lost business , ” according to Bloomberg News .
Congress lays out its priorities : House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday issued their own list of priorities for a coronavirus response and called for the administration to do more , with a focus on worker-friendly policies .
“ In light of reports that the Trump administration is considering new tax cuts for major corporations impacted by the coronavirus , we are demanding that the administration prioritize the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their families over corporate interests , ” they said in a statement .
Pelosi and Schumer called for paid sick leave , enhanced unemployment insurance , expanded food assistance programs , free coronavirus testing and reimbursement for uncovered costs of treatment .
House Democratic leaders reportedly plan to meet Monday evening to plan their own legislative proposals .
Rep. Rosa DeLauro ( D-CT ) , a member of the House Appropriations Committee , “ has introduced legislation mandating 14 days of paid sick leave in the case of an emergency health crisis such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -- especially low-wage workers -- have no paid sick leave and thus would face difficulty complying with medical quarantine advice , ” the Post reports .
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley ( R-IA ) , meanwhile , “ is exploring the possibility of targeted tax relief measures that could provide a timely and effective response to the coronavirus , ” a spokesman said Monday .
This article was updated at 6:38 p.m. on Monday , March 9 .

Stocks cratered on Monday, suffering their worst daily drop in more than nine years, as the spread of the coronavirus and a clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil prices left investors again looking for safety. The S&P 500 fell 7.6%, its worst daily decline since 2008.
The market plunge triggered an automatic 15-minute halt to trading shortly after the opening bell, reportedly the first such pause in 23 years.
As investors fled to safe havens, the yields on Treasury securities continued their recent slide, with rates on 10-year Treasury notes dropping 0.4% and briefly touching a stunning all-time low of 0.318%. (“This is the market's way of begging Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to invest in projects that will improve America's economic health over the long term,” Axios’s Felix Salmon wrote.) The 30-year rate fell below 1%.
“The world economy essentially just got a one-two punch to the face,” The Washington Post’s Heather Long wrote.
Rising recession risk: The fear is that those dual blows could tip the economy into a recession as the virus disrupts business and forces people to hunker down at home and an oil price war threatens energy companies in the United States and elsewhere. The action in stock, bond and energy markets all signal that investors believe the recession risk is very real.
“We are going to take a hit. It might not be a full out recession, but we’re moving closer to that,” economist Claudia Sahm, an expert on recessions, told the Post. Bloomberg’s Businessweek’s Peter Coy was even more pessimistic: “Let’s just say it: The longest economic expansion in U.S. history may already be over, killed by Covid-19.”
What the Trump administration might do: President Trump last week signed an $8.3 billion bill to fund the public health response to the virus, but the White House is under intense pressure to deliver a broader plan addressing both the health and economic concerns stemming from the outbreak.
Trump and his top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, have both downplayed the threat from the virus, and the White House still does not have an economic response plan. But The Washington Post reports that the White House National Economic Council and Treasury Department have been discussing potential actions to help limit the economic damage for 10 days. White House advisers were reportedly set to present the president with a list of policy options on Monday afternoon.
Those options reportedly include paid sick leave, deferred taxes on hard-hit industries and emergency cash assistance for small businesses. Trump has also discussed the possibility of a payroll tax cut, but top administration officials have given attention to a short-term expansion of paid sick leave “because it would cost less,” Bloomberg News reports. White House officials reportedly have also considered providing money to geographic regions of the country hurt most by the virus. (Update: At a Monday evening press conference, Trump said he would discuss a payroll tax cut with congressional Republicans on Tuesday.)
“The timing of any of the economic measures is unclear, but they would likely be rolled out on a step-by-step basis, beginning with aid to individual Americans who are infected, then expanding to companies and workers affected by lost business,” according to Bloomberg News.
Congress lays out its priorities: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday issued their own list of priorities for a coronavirus response and called for the administration to do more, with a focus on worker-friendly policies. “In light of reports that the Trump administration is considering new tax cuts for major corporations impacted by the coronavirus, we are demanding that the administration prioritize the health and safety of American workers and their families over corporate interests,” they said in a statement.
Pelosi and Schumer called for paid sick leave, enhanced unemployment insurance, expanded food assistance programs, free coronavirus testing and reimbursement for uncovered costs of treatment. House Democratic leaders reportedly plan to meet Monday evening to plan their own legislative proposals.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), a member of the House Appropriations Committee, “has introduced legislation mandating 14 days of paid sick leave in the case of an emergency health crisis such as coronavirus, noting that most workers -- especially low-wage workers -- have no paid sick leave and thus would face difficulty complying with medical quarantine advice,” the Post reports.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA), meanwhile, “is exploring the possibility of targeted tax relief measures that could provide a timely and effective response to the coronavirus,” a spokesman said Monday.
This article was updated at 6:38 p.m. on Monday, March 9.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-06--Trump Administration Considers ‘Targeted’ Tax Breaks in Response to Coronavirus

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that the Trump administration is considering tax relief for industries hurt by the coronavirus .
Expressing confidence that the U.S. economy is “ fundamentally sound , ” Kudlow said that the White House is mulling “ timely and targeted ” relief for specific sectors of the economy that are vulnerable to a slowdown , such as travel and hospitality .
Airlines have already cut back on flights and warned that the virus outbreak could cost the industry more than $ 100 billion .
“ The story I am trying to tell is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of assistance , not gargantuan , across-the-board , throw-money-at-the-problem , which has not worked in the past , ” Kudlow said .
The discussions are preliminary , but there is a growing sense that the federal government will have to provide more economic assistance in the coming weeks and possibly months in the face of a potential downturn , above and beyond the $ 8.3 billion emergency funding package President Trump signed into law Friday .
Here are some proposals that have emerged this week : Guaranteed paid sick leave : Democratic lawmakers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all employers to provide paid sick days .
About 25 % of U.S. workers do not have access to paid sick leave , and the legislation from Rep. Rosa DeLauro ( D-CT ) and Sen. Patty Murray ( D-WA ) would allow all employees to accrue seven days of paid leave for illness or to care for a family member who is ill , with an additional 14 days available in the event of a public health emergency .
“ The lack of paid sick days could make coronavirus harder to contain in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have universal sick leave policies in place , ” DeLauro said in a statement .
A $ 1 trillion stimulus : CNBC ’ s Steve Liesman says Congress should pass a $ 1 trillion “ conditional emergency stimulus ” to boost the economy , which would include an increase in unemployment benefits , aid to small businesses and payments to cover the cost of more medical care .
Liesman said the government should take advantage of low interest rates to pay for the stimulus .
“ With the 10-year government bond yield @ @ @ @ @ @ @ write , the cost to the government would be as cheap as it ’ s ever been , ” he wrote Friday .
“ In fact , all you have to do is ask whether the return on that money is greater than the interest rate , either in GDP that ’ s not lost , or even added.
” $ 1,000 for every adult : Jason Furman , who chaired President Obama ’ s Council of Economic Advisers and is now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School , wrote an op-ed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an “ accelerated , big , comprehensive and dynamic ” stimulus that would provide $ 1,000 to every American adult and $ 500 for every child , extend unemployment insurance and boost Medicaid funding .
The cost of such a package would be about $ 350 billion , Furman said , though it would go higher if the slowdown extends into 2021 .
Federal assistance for states : Claudia Sahm , director of macroeconomic policy at the liberal Washington Center for Equitable Growth , says it ’ s time for policymakers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s caused by the coronavirus or something else .
Writing at The Hill Thursday , Sahm is calling for Congress to pass an automatic cash assistance program that would send checks to American households — something like $ 1,600 for a family of four — as soon as the unemployment rate rises above a given threshold .
The recession signal could also trigger higher federal payments for Medicaid and the Children ’ s Health Insurance Program , freeing states to spend more on unemployment benefits and food stamps .

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that the Trump administration is considering tax relief for industries hurt by the coronavirus. Expressing confidence that the U.S. economy is “fundamentally sound,” Kudlow said that the White House is mulling “timely and targeted” relief for specific sectors of the economy that are vulnerable to a slowdown, such as travel and hospitality. Airlines have already cut back on flights and warned that the virus outbreak could cost the industry more than $100 billion.
“The story I am trying to tell is a story of timely and targeted microforms of assistance, not gargantuan, across-the-board, throw-money-at-the-problem, which has not worked in the past,” Kudlow said.
The discussions are preliminary, but there is a growing sense that the federal government will have to provide more economic assistance in the coming weeks and possibly months in the face of a potential downturn, above and beyond the $8.3 billion emergency funding package President Trump signed into law Friday. Here are some proposals that have emerged this week:
Guaranteed paid sick leave: Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill Friday that would require all employers to provide paid sick days. About 25% of U.S. workers do not have access to paid sick leave, and the legislation from Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) would allow all employees to accrue seven days of paid leave for illness or to care for a family member who is ill, with an additional 14 days available in the event of a public health emergency.
“The lack of paid sick days could make coronavirus harder to contain in the United States compared with other countries that have universal sick leave policies in place,” DeLauro said in a statement.
A $1 trillion stimulus: CNBC’s Steve Liesman says Congress should pass a $1 trillion “conditional emergency stimulus” to boost the economy, which would include an increase in unemployment benefits, aid to small businesses and payments to cover the cost of more medical care. Liesman said the government should take advantage of low interest rates to pay for the stimulus. “With the 10-year government bond yield at 0.7% and falling as I write, the cost to the government would be as cheap as it’s ever been,” he wrote Friday. “In fact, all you have to do is ask whether the return on that money is greater than the interest rate, either in GDP that’s not lost, or even added.”
$1,000 for every adult: Jason Furman, who chaired President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and is now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal Friday calling for an “accelerated, big, comprehensive and dynamic” stimulus that would provide $1,000 to every American adult and $500 for every child, extend unemployment insurance and boost Medicaid funding. The cost of such a package would be about $350 billion, Furman said, though it would go higher if the slowdown extends into 2021.
Federal assistance for states: Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the liberal Washington Center for Equitable Growth, says it’s time for policymakers to prepare for the next recession, whether it’s caused by the coronavirus or something else. Writing at The Hill Thursday, Sahm is calling for Congress to pass an automatic cash assistance program that would send checks to American households — something like $1,600 for a family of four — as soon as the unemployment rate rises above a given threshold. The recession signal could also trigger higher federal payments for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, freeing states to spend more on unemployment benefits and food stamps.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-11--Trump, Congress Scramble for Coronavirus Stimulus Plan

President Trump is set to address the nation on the coronavirus Wednesday night at 9 p.m .
ET as his administration scrambles to coordinate a public health and economic response to what the World Health Organization now calls a pandemic .
After days of trying to downplay the threat , Trump is facing calls to declare the outbreak a national emergency , which would enable the Federal Emergency Management Agency to use more than $ 40 billion from the Disaster Relief Fund to help local and state governments in their coronavirus efforts .
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , CNN reports .
But Trump is reluctant to declare the outbreak an emergency .
“ Trump ’ s concern at this point is that going further could hamper his narrative that the coronavirus is similar to the seasonal flu , ” Politico ’ s Anita Kumar reports , citing three people familiar with the discussions .
Kumar adds that the president is instead expected to approve a more limited designation that would allow the federal government to backstop small business loans , provide assistance to hourly workers and delay the April 15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own proposals : As the administration pulls together its response and negotiates economic stimulus legislation with Congress , House and Senate Democrats on Wednesday assembled their own plans for a more immediate relief package focused on providing paid sick leave , unemployment benefits , free testing , food assistance and other help to people affected by the outbreak .
“ In moving hastily to unveil their own plans , Democrats hope to set the terms of the debate and get ahead of the Trump administration , which is divided internally over what to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reports .
“ The quick action carries risk for House Democrats , who do not want to be seen as trying to politicize a deadly epidemic .
But it also puts pressure on Republicans to support a measure to provide aid for people who are sick or out of work amid a public health crisis.
” The House is expected to vote on its plan Thursday in hopes of sending it to Trump before the end of the week , when lawmakers are set to leave town for a scheduled week-long recess .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there won ’ t be enough time for the Congressional Budget Office to put together a cost estimate for the legislation , but that the tab would probably run into the billions of dollars .
“ Right now we ’ re trying to deal with the direct impact of the virus on individual citizens , ” House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth ( D-KY ) said Wednesday , according to the Associated Press .
“ So paid family leave , making sure the tests are free to everybody , boosting unemployment insurance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediate .
That ’ s tomorrow.
” Lawmakers would then revisit a broader stimulus package when they return .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reportedly backed that approach .
Testifying before Congress , Mnuchin said he hoped to reach a deal within 48 hours and that the administration would seek a larger package in the future .
“ We want to get done what we can do this week , and we will come back , ” he said .
Talks with the White House : Pelosi is also engaged in talks with Mnuchin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House and House Democrats reportedly remain divided over the specific elements to be included in that plan .
Lawmakers have largely panned President Trump ’ s proposal to zero out the payroll tax for employers and employees through the rest of the year , as have many economists .
That tax cut would cost an estimated $ 700 billion , according to The New York Times , putting it on the order of the 2008 Wall Street bailout and the economic stimulus package that followed .
“ A payroll tax cut would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sick days or those who have lost shifts and tips , ” Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden ( D-OR ) , said in a statement .
And Hoyer told The New York Times that the tax cut idea is a “ non-starter .
”

President Trump is set to address the nation on the coronavirus Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET as his administration scrambles to coordinate a public health and economic response to what the World Health Organization now calls a pandemic.
After days of trying to downplay the threat, Trump is facing calls to declare the outbreak a national emergency, which would enable the Federal Emergency Management Agency to use more than $40 billion from the Disaster Relief Fund to help local and state governments in their coronavirus efforts.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other senators are pressing for such a declaration, CNN reports. But Trump is reluctant to declare the outbreak an emergency.
“Trump’s concern at this point is that going further could hamper his narrative that the coronavirus is similar to the seasonal flu,” Politico’s Anita Kumar reports, citing three people familiar with the discussions. Kumar adds that the president is instead expected to approve a more limited designation that would allow the federal government to backstop small business loans, provide assistance to hourly workers and delay the April 15 tax filing deadline.
Democrats unveil their own proposals: As the administration pulls together its response and negotiates economic stimulus legislation with Congress, House and Senate Democrats on Wednesday assembled their own plans for a more immediate relief package focused on providing paid sick leave, unemployment benefits, free testing, food assistance and other help to people affected by the outbreak.
“In moving hastily to unveil their own plans, Democrats hope to set the terms of the debate and get ahead of the Trump administration, which is divided internally over what to do,” The New York Times reports. “The quick action carries risk for House Democrats, who do not want to be seen as trying to politicize a deadly epidemic. But it also puts pressure on Republicans to support a measure to provide aid for people who are sick or out of work amid a public health crisis.”
The House is expected to vote on its plan Thursday in hopes of sending it to Trump before the end of the week, when lawmakers are set to leave town for a scheduled week-long recess. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer reportedly said that there won’t be enough time for the Congressional Budget Office to put together a cost estimate for the legislation, but that the tab would probably run into the billions of dollars.
“Right now we’re trying to deal with the direct impact of the virus on individual citizens,” House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) said Wednesday, according to the Associated Press. “So paid family leave, making sure the tests are free to everybody, boosting unemployment insurance and so forth. That’s immediate. That’s tomorrow.”
Lawmakers would then revisit a broader stimulus package when they return. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reportedly backed that approach. Testifying before Congress, Mnuchin said he hoped to reach a deal within 48 hours and that the administration would seek a larger package in the future. “We want to get done what we can do this week, and we will come back,” he said.
Talks with the White House: Pelosi is also engaged in talks with Mnuchin over a relief package, though the White House and House Democrats reportedly remain divided over the specific elements to be included in that plan.
Lawmakers have largely panned President Trump’s proposal to zero out the payroll tax for employers and employees through the rest of the year, as have many economists. That tax cut would cost an estimated $700 billion, according to The New York Times, putting it on the order of the 2008 Wall Street bailout and the economic stimulus package that followed.
“A payroll tax cut would do little to help workers without paid sick days or those who have lost shifts and tips,” Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR), said in a statement. And Hoyer told The New York Times that the tax cut idea is a “non-starter.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-10--Number of the Day: 3.5 Billion

Number of the Day: 3.5 Billion

The U.S. maintains a Strategic National Stockpile of critical medical supplies , which includes antibiotics , vaccines , ventilators and other essential equipment .
One item that ’ s supposed to be ready to go is the N95 respirator used by medical personnel to protect themselves from airborne particles – a piece of equipment that has all but disappeared from the market in the wake of the coronavirus .
But according to The Washington Post , the stockpile hasn ’ t replenished its supply of N95 masks since the H1N1 pandemic of 2009 .
“ With a limited annual budget @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in charge of the stockpile focused on what they say was a more pressing priority : lifesaving drugs and equipment for diseases and disasters that emerged before the new coronavirus , for which there is no vaccine or specific anti-viral treatment , ” the Post said Tuesday .
Gerrit Bakker of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials , a group that pushed for a resupply of the masks , lamented the lack of attention to the N95 mask supply .
“ In hindsight , it appears to be shortsighted , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t entirely bare , though .
The stockpile has about 12 million N95 respirators and 30 million surgical masks on hand , the Department of Health and Human Services said last week .
But that falls well short of the 3.5 billion masks the country is estimated to need in the case of a severe epidemic .

The U.S. maintains a Strategic National Stockpile of critical medical supplies, which includes antibiotics, vaccines, ventilators and other essential equipment. One item that’s supposed to be ready to go is the N95 respirator used by medical personnel to protect themselves from airborne particles – a piece of equipment that has all but disappeared from the market in the wake of the coronavirus. But according to The Washington Post, the stockpile hasn’t replenished its supply of N95 masks since the H1N1 pandemic of 2009.
“With a limited annual budget of about $600 million, officials in charge of the stockpile focused on what they say was a more pressing priority: lifesaving drugs and equipment for diseases and disasters that emerged before the new coronavirus, for which there is no vaccine or specific anti-viral treatment,” the Post said Tuesday.
Gerrit Bakker of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, a group that pushed for a resupply of the masks, lamented the lack of attention to the N95 mask supply. “In hindsight, it appears to be shortsighted,” Bakker said.
The cupboard isn’t entirely bare, though. The stockpile has about 12 million N95 respirators and 30 million surgical masks on hand, the Department of Health and Human Services said last week. But that falls well short of the 3.5 billion masks the country is estimated to need in the case of a severe epidemic.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-10--Trump’s Coronavirus Tax Cut Falls Flat on Capitol Hill

President Trump promised Monday evening that his administration would quickly announce “ very major , ” very “ substantial ” and “ dramatic ” steps to boost the economy in the face of the coronavirus threat .
That might not be so easy .
When Trump made his announcement , the administration and Congress had not settled on any such steps , and reactions from Congress suggest that there ’ s no quick consensus on a plan , though lawmakers prefer measures to help hourly workers and affected industries .
Trump wants a payroll tax cut : The measures under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a temporary payroll tax cut as well as paid leave for hourly workers , targeted tax breaks for industries hit by the outbreak and loans for affected small businesses .
Trump on Tuesday met with Republican senators at their weekly lunch and reportedly told them he wants a payroll tax holiday to run beyond the November election because he does not want the taxes to rise back to normal just before voters decide whether to give him another term .
`` I was just with the Republican senators and they were just about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there 's a great feeling about doing a lot of the things , '' he told reporters afterward .
The payroll tax funds Social Security and Medicare .
Employees and employers each pay 6.2 % on the first $ 137,700 of wage and salary income for Social Security and 1.45 % of their income for Medicare , plus an additional 0.9 % surtax for married filers earning over $ 250,000 .
The proposed tax cut could reportedly amount to $ 40 billion a month , though that could change depending on the size @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday ’ s Senate GOP meeting ended without any specific plan for an economic stimulus package or agreement on how to proceed .
Democrats , meanwhile , are working on their own plan and reportedly could start rolling out elements of their package as soon as Wednesday .
Adding to the uncertainty , lawmakers are scheduled to leave town Friday until March 23 , making it unlikely that any plan gets enacted over the next two weeks .
That timeline would require any legislative action be done with extraordinary speed , and House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might not be possible , prompting an angry response from Trump on Twitter .
But Pelosi met Tuesday with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss a relief package .
Hesitation on Capitol Hill : While Trump wants to “ go big ” on a fiscal stimulus package , lawmakers were questioning the wisdom of a payroll tax cut even before Tuesday ’ s GOP Senate meeting with the president and his economic team .
Reactions to the proposal on Capitol Hill suggest it could be difficult to reach a quick consensus about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essentially dismissed the idea of a payroll tax cut and have outlined a different set of priorities for a stimulus package , including paid sick leave and extended unemployment insurance for people put out of work .
“ The administration seems to believe that the answer to any problem is another tax cut , ” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said .
Members of the president ’ s own party — and some of his own aides — are reportedly cool to the idea as well , though they generally agree that a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Trump on Monday night , Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget Russ Vought argued that it is too early to enact such a cut , according to Politico .
Some Republicans on Capitol Hill have also expressed hesitation about a payroll tax cut .
• “ Well , I usually love tax cuts , but I think it ’ s a little premature , ” Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told Politico .
• Sen. Lindsey Graham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the cut would be more effective if applied to specific sectors of the economy .
• And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly made clear in private that he opposes the idea .
“ McConnell has made clear he ‘ detests ’ pursuing this particular policy , which would probably add to federal debt and deficits , and he has said many conservative GOP senators share his view , ” The Washington Post reported .
Questioning the effectiveness of a payroll tax cut : Lawmakers and economists alike have expressed doubts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do much to mitigate the economic fears and fallout stemming from the coronavirus outbreak .
“ A payroll tax cut might be the correct response to an economic downturn , but it is far too broad to have a significant impact on the source of this potential crisis .
It might help the stock market in the short run but it will be expensive , ” Paul Winfree , the former deputy director of the Domestic Policy Council in the Trump White House told Politico .
“ Furthermore , it won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work because they ’ re home sick or are caring for someone who is sick .
Nor will further incentives for people to work through supply-side policies to help contain the coronavirus epidemic.
” Some also worried that a payroll tax cut might incentivize virus-spreading behavior compared to other forms of stimulus .
“ We don ’ t want people having to choose between a paycheck and preventing the spread of the disease , ” said Rep. Don Beyer ( D-VA ) , vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus relief plan : Trump also said Tuesday that his administration would provide help to airlines and cruise lines , though he provided no details .
And GOP senators variously suggested infrastructure spending and federal bailouts for the shale drilling industry hit by the sudden oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia .
The administration is reportedly also looking at ways to enact a guarantee of paid sick leave without going through Congress .

President Trump promised Monday evening that his administration would quickly announce “very major,” very “substantial” and “dramatic” steps to boost the economy in the face of the coronavirus threat.
That might not be so easy. When Trump made his announcement, the administration and Congress had not settled on any such steps, and reactions from Congress suggest that there’s no quick consensus on a plan, though lawmakers prefer measures to help hourly workers and affected industries.
Trump wants a payroll tax cut: The measures under consideration by the administration reportedly center on a temporary payroll tax cut as well as paid leave for hourly workers, targeted tax breaks for industries hit by the outbreak and loans for affected small businesses.
Trump on Tuesday met with Republican senators at their weekly lunch and reportedly told them he wants a payroll tax holiday to run beyond the November election because he does not want the taxes to rise back to normal just before voters decide whether to give him another term. "I was just with the Republican senators and they were just about all there, mostly all there and there's a great feeling about doing a lot of the things," he told reporters afterward.
The payroll tax funds Social Security and Medicare. Employees and employers each pay 6.2% on the first $137,700 of wage and salary income for Social Security and 1.45% of their income for Medicare, plus an additional 0.9% surtax for married filers earning over $250,000.
The proposed tax cut could reportedly amount to $40 billion a month, though that could change depending on the size and duration of the cut.
But Tuesday’s Senate GOP meeting ended without any specific plan for an economic stimulus package or agreement on how to proceed. Democrats, meanwhile, are working on their own plan and reportedly could start rolling out elements of their package as soon as Wednesday.
Adding to the uncertainty, lawmakers are scheduled to leave town Friday until March 23, making it unlikely that any plan gets enacted over the next two weeks.
That timeline would require any legislative action be done with extraordinary speed, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicated Monday that it might not be possible, prompting an angry response from Trump on Twitter. But Pelosi met Tuesday with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss a relief package.
Hesitation on Capitol Hill: While Trump wants to “go big” on a fiscal stimulus package, lawmakers were questioning the wisdom of a payroll tax cut even before Tuesday’s GOP Senate meeting with the president and his economic team.
Reactions to the proposal on Capitol Hill suggest it could be difficult to reach a quick consensus about the next steps to take. Democrats have essentially dismissed the idea of a payroll tax cut and have outlined a different set of priorities for a stimulus package, including paid sick leave and extended unemployment insurance for people put out of work. “The administration seems to believe that the answer to any problem is another tax cut,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said.
Members of the president’s own party — and some of his own aides — are reportedly cool to the idea as well, though they generally agree that a stimulus is needed.
At a meeting with Trump on Monday night, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget Russ Vought argued that it is too early to enact such a cut, according to Politico.
Some Republicans on Capitol Hill have also expressed hesitation about a payroll tax cut.
“Well, I usually love tax cuts, but I think it’s a little premature,” Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told Politico.
Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina questioned whether the cost of the cut would be more effective if applied to specific sectors of the economy.
And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly made clear in private that he opposes the idea. “McConnell has made clear he ‘detests’ pursuing this particular policy, which would probably add to federal debt and deficits, and he has said many conservative GOP senators share his view,” The Washington Post reported.
Questioning the effectiveness of a payroll tax cut: Lawmakers and economists alike have expressed doubts about whether a payroll tax cut would do much to mitigate the economic fears and fallout stemming from the coronavirus outbreak.
“A payroll tax cut might be the correct response to an economic downturn, but it is far too broad to have a significant impact on the source of this potential crisis. It might help the stock market in the short run but it will be expensive,” Paul Winfree, the former deputy director of the Domestic Policy Council in the Trump White House told Politico. “Furthermore, it won’t help people who either can’t work because they’re home sick or are caring for someone who is sick. Nor will further incentives for people to work through supply-side policies to help contain the coronavirus epidemic.”
Some also worried that a payroll tax cut might incentivize virus-spreading behavior compared to other forms of stimulus. “We don’t want people having to choose between a paycheck and preventing the spread of the disease,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, according to the Post.
Other possibilities for a coronavirus relief plan: Trump also said Tuesday that his administration would provide help to airlines and cruise lines, though he provided no details. And GOP senators variously suggested infrastructure spending and federal bailouts for the shale drilling industry hit by the sudden oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The administration is reportedly also looking at ways to enact a guarantee of paid sick leave without going through Congress.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-06--Medicare for All Would Help, Not Hurt, the Job Market: Report

One of the main criticisms of Medicare for All is that its radical realignment of the health care sector would lead to millions of job losses as doctors and hospitals take a financial hit and the legions of administrators , coders and claims specialists that have arisen under the current system see their middle-class jobs streamlined out of existence .
Some health economists have argued that a reduction in the health-care workforce is a feature , not a flaw , in the Medicare-for-All plan — albeit one that policymakers must plan for to help minimize economic pain and dislocation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Economic Policy Institute , a left-leaning think tank , argues that the threat of job losses has been overblown and that the labor market churn created by a switch to Medicare for All would not be very large compared , for example , to the 21.5 million workers who got laid off in 2018 .
“ The number of health insurance and billing administration workers who would need to transition implies an increase in the rate of overall job market churn that is relatively small : Job losses for these workers would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economywide layoffs in 2018 , ” EPI economist Josh Bivens writes .
The 1.8 million health insurance and billing administration jobs expected to be lost based on one analysis is roughly the same as the number of layoffs in the finance and insurance sectors over the past four years , Bivens writes .
Those job losses haven ’ t resulted in a shock to the economy .
They ’ re just part of the normal labor market churn .
Bivens adds that the number of jobs in the health care sector overall is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a transition to Medicare for All as millions of Americans make use of their new coverage : “ The number of jobs spurred by increased demand for new health care spending ( including long-term care ) will certainly be larger than the number displaced by realizing efficiencies in the health insurance and billing administration sectors.
” Beyond that , Medicare for All should actually boost wages and allow workers to switch jobs or start new businesses more easily , resulting in a better labor market .

One of the main criticisms of Medicare for All is that its radical realignment of the health care sector would lead to millions of job losses as doctors and hospitals take a financial hit and the legions of administrators, coders and claims specialists that have arisen under the current system see their middle-class jobs streamlined out of existence.
Some health economists have argued that a reduction in the health-care workforce is a feature, not a flaw, in the Medicare-for-All plan — albeit one that policymakers must plan for to help minimize economic pain and dislocation. But a report released this week by the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, argues that the threat of job losses has been overblown and that the labor market churn created by a switch to Medicare for All would not be very large compared, for example, to the 21.5 million workers who got laid off in 2018.
“The number of health insurance and billing administration workers who would need to transition implies an increase in the rate of overall job market churn that is relatively small: Job losses for these workers would be equivalent to one-twelfth the size of economywide layoffs in 2018,” EPI economist Josh Bivens writes.
The 1.8 million health insurance and billing administration jobs expected to be lost based on one analysis is roughly the same as the number of layoffs in the finance and insurance sectors over the past four years, Bivens writes. Those job losses haven’t resulted in a shock to the economy. They’re just part of the normal labor market churn.
Bivens adds that the number of jobs in the health care sector overall is “almost guaranteed” to grow after a transition to Medicare for All as millions of Americans make use of their new coverage: “The number of jobs spurred by increased demand for new health care spending (including long-term care) will certainly be larger than the number displaced by realizing efficiencies in the health insurance and billing administration sectors.”
Beyond that, Medicare for All should actually boost wages and allow workers to switch jobs or start new businesses more easily, resulting in a better labor market.
Read the EPI report here.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-06--Bernie Sanders’ Historic Tax Hikes

Bernie Sanders’ Historic Tax Hikes

Richard Rubin of The Wall Street Journal confirmed on Friday what you probably already knew : Bernie Sanders is proposing some seriously large tax increases .
How large ?
Rubin says that Sanders is talking about tax hikes “ on a scale not seen since World War II , ” when the staggering cost of saving the world from fascism prompted the federal government to extend the income tax to the middle class , roughly doubling the federal tax burden .
While federal tax revenues were 9.9 % of gross domestic product in 1942 , they had risen to 20.5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan would raise the overall tax rate as a share of GDP by about the same amount , from the current average of 17.4 % expected over the next 10 years to a bit more than 28 % .
“ His proposed tax increases top $ 30 trillion over a decade , ” Rubin says .
“ That is more than 10 % of gross domestic product and at least a 60 % increase in taxes over what would happen otherwise.
” That would bring an end to the country ’ s status @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tax rates – and the wealthy would feel the biggest bite .
“ Mr .
Sanders ’ s combination of taxes on wealth , income , financial transactions , corporate profits , payrolls , estates and capital gains would hit rich Americans from every direction , ” Rubin says .
“ If Congress were to pass all his plans , the total U.S. tax burden—including federal , state and local taxes—would resemble Canada ’ s or Germany ’ s rather than being near the bottom of the pack of rich nations .
”

Richard Rubin of The Wall Street Journal confirmed on Friday what you probably already knew: Bernie Sanders is proposing some seriously large tax increases.
How large? Rubin says that Sanders is talking about tax hikes “on a scale not seen since World War II,” when the staggering cost of saving the world from fascism prompted the federal government to extend the income tax to the middle class, roughly doubling the federal tax burden. While federal tax revenues were 9.9% of gross domestic product in 1942, they had risen to 20.5% by 1944.
Sanders’ tax plan would raise the overall tax rate as a share of GDP by about the same amount, from the current average of 17.4% expected over the next 10 years to a bit more than 28%. “His proposed tax increases top $30 trillion over a decade,” Rubin says. “That is more than 10% of gross domestic product and at least a 60% increase in taxes over what would happen otherwise.”
That would bring an end to the country’s status as a developed country with unusually low tax rates – and the wealthy would feel the biggest bite.
“Mr. Sanders’s combination of taxes on wealth, income, financial transactions, corporate profits, payrolls, estates and capital gains would hit rich Americans from every direction,” Rubin says. “If Congress were to pass all his plans, the total U.S. tax burden—including federal, state and local taxes—would resemble Canada’s or Germany’s rather than being near the bottom of the pack of rich nations.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-12--Pelosi and Mnuchin Race to Reach Coronavirus Aid Deal

President Trump called for unity in his 11-minute Oval Office address to the nation on coronavirus Wednesday night , but that unity was hard to come by on Capitol Hill Thursday as the president and congressional Republicans opposed a response package proposed by House Democrats and negotiations on the legislation continued between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin .
• Pelosi and Mnuchin race to reach a stimulus deal : Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke by phone at least five times Thursday as they sought to finalize a multi-billion-dollar economic relief plan .
• The Senate cancels its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said the Senate will stay in session next week rather than leaving for a planned recess .
• Biden and Sanders call for a stronger government response : Both Democratic presidential candidates delivered speeches Thursday criticizing the administration ’ s handling of the pandemic and laying out how they think the government should respond .
• Federal Reserve takes extraordinary action : The Fed said it would pump $ 1.5 trillion into the short-term lending markets that banks use , a move meant to ensure that financial markets remain stable and liquid .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ change the mix of securities it buys under an existing $ 60-billion-a-month program .
• Stocks plunge again : The S & P 500 index fell by 9.5 % , its worst day since 1987 .
“ Investors are looking for bold government stimulus .
So far we haven ’ t seen a lot of detail and there isn ’ t much confidence it will happen quick enough , ” Nathan Thooft , Manulife Investment Management ’ s head of global asset allocation , told Bloomberg News .
• March Madness has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men ’ s and women ’ s basketball tournaments .
And Major League Baseball suspended its spring training games and said it would delay the start of its regular season by at least two weeks .
The administration had to correct or walk back a few policy announcements Trump made , clarifying that trade with Europe will continue and that the 30-day travel restrictions from Europe would not apply to American residents and citizens .
Trump had also claimed that private health insurers had agreed to waive co-pays and prevent surprise medical bills @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ trade group and the White House later clarified that insurers had agreed to waive co-payments on testing , not treatment .
“ From the misstatements to the omissions to his labored demeanor , the president sent a message that shook financial markets , disrupted relations with European allies , confused his many viewers and undermined the most precious commodity of any president , his credibility , ” The Washington Post ’ s Dan Balz wrote .
The House speaker told reporters at a morning news conference that Democrats agreed to “ most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changes .
“ He had some suggestions , ” Pelosi said .
“ All very reasonable .
I don ’ t think that any of them would prevent us from moving forward with the bill.
” She rejected a suggestion from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy ’ s that lawmakers delay a planned recess by 24 or 48 hours to keep talks going .
`` We do n't need 48 hours , we need to just make a decision to help families right now , '' she said .
What Trump proposed : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump proposed financial relief for workers who are ill , quarantined or caring for others and he said would ask Congress to provide $ 50 billion in funding for the Small Business Administration to provide low-interest loans to businesses disrupted by the pandemic .
He also called on Congress to enact a payroll tax cut .
What House Democrats proposed : House Democrats late Wednesday night unveiled their own multi-billion-dollar economic response package , which calls for paid sick leave , free coronavirus testing , additional food aid and expanded unemployment insurance .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for state Medicaid costs by 8 percentage points .
It does not include Trump ’ s payroll tax cut or his proposed expansion of loans for small businesses .
You can read a more detailed breakdown of the bill from the Associated Press , and we ’ ll have more information once the final bill is produced .
Why Trump and Republicans rejected the Dems ’ bill : Trump objected to what he called “ goodies ” in the bill .
“ There are things in there that have nothing to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he told reporters .
“ So , it ’ s not a way for them to get some of the goodies that they haven ’ t been able to get for the last 25 years.
” An unnamed administration official told Bloomberg News that those items included an estimated $ 50 billion increase in federal funding for Medicaid and changes that the White House feared could allow federal money to go to health care providers who perform abortions .
A White House official told Roll Call that the administration supports many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bill , but not the ways they are implemented in the legislation .
Congressional Republicans , meanwhile , had their own criticisms of the Democratic package .
McConnell panned the House bill Tuesday morning as “ an ideological wish list that was not tailored closely to the circumstances . ''
And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California derided the plan as “ completely partisan ” and “ unworkable.
” The main concern for Republicans was the requirement that employers provide permanent paid sick leave to their workers .
“ McCarthy and others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exempt some businesses from a paid leave mandate , and that such a measure should include a sunset clause , ” Bloomberg reported .
The bottom line : As negotiations continued , both sides reportedly said they were closing in on a deal and a House vote was reportedly still expected Thursday .
It ’ s unclear when that might happen and if it will be on a package that has the support of the White House .
The Senate is gone for the weekend , so final passage of any negotiated deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

President Trump called for unity in his 11-minute Oval Office address to the nation on coronavirus Wednesday night, but that unity was hard to come by on Capitol Hill Thursday as the president and congressional Republicans opposed a response package proposed by House Democrats and negotiations on the legislation continued between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Here’s your news update:
Pelosi and Mnuchin race to reach a stimulus deal: Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke by phone at least five times Thursday as they sought to finalize a multi-billion-dollar economic relief plan.
Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke by phone at least five times Thursday as they sought to finalize a multi-billion-dollar economic relief plan. The Senate cancels its recess: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate will stay in session next week rather than leaving for a planned recess.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate will stay in session next week rather than leaving for a planned recess. Biden and Sanders call for a stronger government response: Both Democratic presidential candidates delivered speeches Thursday criticizing the administration’s handling of the pandemic and laying out how they think the government should respond.
Both Democratic presidential candidates delivered speeches Thursday criticizing the administration’s handling of the pandemic and laying out how they think the government should respond. Federal Reserve takes extraordinary action: The Fed said it would pump $1.5 trillion into the short-term lending markets that banks use, a move meant to ensure that financial markets remain stable and liquid. The central bank also said it will change the mix of securities it buys under an existing $60-billion-a-month program.
The Fed said it would pump $1.5 trillion into the short-term lending markets that banks use, a move meant to ensure that financial markets remain stable and liquid. The central bank also said it will change the mix of securities it buys under an existing $60-billion-a-month program. Stocks plunge again: The S&P 500 index fell by 9.5%, its worst day since 1987. “Investors are looking for bold government stimulus. So far we haven’t seen a lot of detail and there isn’t much confidence it will happen quick enough,” Nathan Thooft, Manulife Investment Management’s head of global asset allocation, told Bloomberg News.
The S&P 500 index fell by 9.5%, its worst day since 1987. “Investors are looking for bold government stimulus. So far we haven’t seen a lot of detail and there isn’t much confidence it will happen quick enough,” Nathan Thooft, Manulife Investment Management’s head of global asset allocation, told Bloomberg News. March Madness has been canceled: The NCAA called off its men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. And Major League Baseball suspended its spring training games and said it would delay the start of its regular season by at least two weeks.
Trumps’ Speech Fails to Reassure
The administration had to correct or walk back a few policy announcements Trump made, clarifying that trade with Europe will continue and that the 30-day travel restrictions from Europe would not apply to American residents and citizens. Trump had also claimed that private health insurers had agreed to waive co-pays and prevent surprise medical bills for coronavirus treatment, but the insurers’ trade group and the White House later clarified that insurers had agreed to waive co-payments on testing, not treatment.
“From the misstatements to the omissions to his labored demeanor, the president sent a message that shook financial markets, disrupted relations with European allies, confused his many viewers and undermined the most precious commodity of any president, his credibility,” The Washington Post’s Dan Balz wrote.
Can Pelosi and Mnuchin Reach a Deal?
The House speaker told reporters at a morning news conference that Democrats agreed to “most” of the GOP’s proposed changes. “He had some suggestions,” Pelosi said. “All very reasonable. I don’t think that any of them would prevent us from moving forward with the bill.” She rejected a suggestion from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s that lawmakers delay a planned recess by 24 or 48 hours to keep talks going. "We don't need 48 hours, we need to just make a decision to help families right now," she said.
What Trump proposed: Besides announcing travel restrictions from Europe, Trump proposed financial relief for workers who are ill, quarantined or caring for others and he said would ask Congress to provide $50 billion in funding for the Small Business Administration to provide low-interest loans to businesses disrupted by the pandemic. He also called on Congress to enact a payroll tax cut.
What House Democrats proposed: House Democrats late Wednesday night unveiled their own multi-billion-dollar economic response package, which calls for paid sick leave, free coronavirus testing, additional food aid and expanded unemployment insurance. The legislation would also boost federal funding for state Medicaid costs by 8 percentage points. It does not include Trump’s payroll tax cut or his proposed expansion of loans for small businesses.
You can read a more detailed breakdown of the bill from the Associated Press, and we’ll have more information once the final bill is produced.
Why Trump and Republicans rejected the Dems’ bill: Trump objected to what he called “goodies” in the bill. “There are things in there that have nothing to do with what we’re talking about,” he told reporters. “So, it’s not a way for them to get some of the goodies that they haven’t been able to get for the last 25 years.”
An unnamed administration official told Bloomberg News that those items included an estimated $50 billion increase in federal funding for Medicaid and changes that the White House feared could allow federal money to go to health care providers who perform abortions.
A White House official told Roll Call that the administration supports many of the policies in the House Democrats' bill, but not the ways they are implemented in the legislation.
Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, had their own criticisms of the Democratic package. McConnell panned the House bill Tuesday morning as “an ideological wish list that was not tailored closely to the circumstances." And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California derided the plan as “completely partisan” and “unworkable.”
The main concern for Republicans was the requirement that employers provide permanent paid sick leave to their workers. “McCarthy and others said there should be an option to exempt some businesses from a paid leave mandate, and that such a measure should include a sunset clause,” Bloomberg reported.
The bottom line: As negotiations continued, both sides reportedly said they were closing in on a deal and a House vote was reportedly still expected Thursday. It’s unclear when that might happen and if it will be on a package that has the support of the White House. The Senate is gone for the weekend, so final passage of any negotiated deal won’t happen until next week.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-12--Deficit Hits Record $235 Billion in February

The federal deficit for the month of February rose to a record $ 235 billion , according to the Monthly Treasury Statement released Wednesday .
Some key details : • The deficit for the 2020 fiscal year , which began last October , now stands at $ 625 billion , compared to $ 544 billion a for the same period year ago – a roughly 15 % increase .
• Total monthly receipts were $ 188 billion , up 12 % from a year ago , while total outlays came to $ 423 billion , up 5 % .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the timing of weekends and holidays , the deficit came to $ 238 billion .
• The Treasury Department estimates that the total deficit for the 2020 fiscal year will exceed $ 1 trillion .
Needless to say , the deficit watchers at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget were not pleased with the news , especially in light of the health crisis currently threatening the U.S. “ It is beyond distressing that we may be entering a period of national emergency with record-high levels of borrowing , ” CRFB ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We ran higher deficits in February than any time in our nation ’ s history – and that was before any large effects of the coronavirus outbreak .
”

The federal deficit for the month of February rose to a record $235 billion, according to the Monthly Treasury Statement released Wednesday. Some key details:
The deficit for the 2020 fiscal year, which began last October, now stands at $625 billion, compared to $544 billion a for the same period year ago – a roughly 15% increase.
Total monthly receipts were $188 billion, up 12% from a year ago, while total outlays came to $423 billion, up 5%.
Adjusted for calendar effects, such as the timing of weekends and holidays, the deficit came to $238 billion.
The Treasury Department estimates that the total deficit for the 2020 fiscal year will exceed $1 trillion.
Needless to say, the deficit watchers at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget were not pleased with the news, especially in light of the health crisis currently threatening the U.S. “It is beyond distressing that we may be entering a period of national emergency with record-high levels of borrowing,” CRFB’s Maya MacGuineas said in a statement. “We ran higher deficits in February than any time in our nation’s history – and that was before any large effects of the coronavirus outbreak.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-10--Why a Coronavirus Recession Could Be Especially Hard to Fight

Moody ’ s economist Mark Zandi now thinks the U.S. economy has a 65 % chance of entering recession this year due to the coronavirus outbreak and turmoil in the oil industry , a sharp jump from the 50-50 odds he calculated just last week .
If a recession does arrive , it will be particularly hard to combat , says Annie Lowrey of The Atlantic , due to the unusual nature of the downturn .
• Extreme uncertainty : No one knows how long the outbreak will last , and it may take months for fears to subside and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Demand and supply shocks at the same time : The outbreak is simultaneously causing serious disruptions in the global supply chain and reducing demand for all kinds of goods , making a recession more difficult to address .
“ Both supply and demand effects are in play , and both are being amplified by tightening financial conditions , ” an S & P Global report said last week .
• Monetary policy near exhaustion : The Federal Reserve has already cut rates to near historic lows , leaving little room to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rates likely have limited effect in the current environment , too , since they can ’ t help U.S. businesses facing supply chain disruptions in China or public fears of going out to the mall .
• Fiscal policy is contentious : Many economists say it ’ s time to turn to fiscal policy to boost the economy .
Although there are plenty of suggestions from individual experts floating around – see here , here , here and here for examples – Congress and the White House are a long way away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polarization : A divided Congress with high levels distrust between the parties will make it harder to quickly develop and pass stimulus measures , and the fact that it ’ s an election year adds another layer of difficulty .
• It ’ s a global problem : Even if policymakers can come up with a solid plan of attack against a complex recession , a global economy means that much depends on what happens in other countries .
“ COVID-19 came out of nowhere , ” says Moody ’ s Zandi .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a black swan—a rare and inherently unforeseeable event with severe consequences .
”

Moody’s economist Mark Zandi now thinks the U.S. economy has a 65% chance of entering recession this year due to the coronavirus outbreak and turmoil in the oil industry, a sharp jump from the 50-50 odds he calculated just last week.
If a recession does arrive, it will be particularly hard to combat, says Annie Lowrey of The Atlantic, due to the unusual nature of the downturn.
Here’s Lowrey’s analysis:
Extreme uncertainty: No one knows how long the outbreak will last, and it may take months for fears to subside and something like normal economic activity to resume.
Demand and supply shocks at the same time: The outbreak is simultaneously causing serious disruptions in the global supply chain and reducing demand for all kinds of goods, making a recession more difficult to address. “Both supply and demand effects are in play, and both are being amplified by tightening financial conditions,” an S&P Global report said last week.
Monetary policy near exhaustion: The Federal Reserve has already cut rates to near historic lows, leaving little room to maneuver in the coming months. Lower rates likely have limited effect in the current environment, too, since they can’t help U.S. businesses facing supply chain disruptions in China or public fears of going out to the mall.
Fiscal policy is contentious: Many economists say it’s time to turn to fiscal policy to boost the economy. Although there are plenty of suggestions from individual experts floating around – see here, here, here and here for examples – Congress and the White House are a long way away from developing a comprehensive plan.
Political polarization: A divided Congress with high levels distrust between the parties will make it harder to quickly develop and pass stimulus measures, and the fact that it’s an election year adds another layer of difficulty.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-16--Biden, Sanders Clash Again Over Social Security

The most heated moments in Sunday night ’ s Democratic presidential primary debate came during an exchange between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders over Social Security .
For months now , Sanders has slammed Biden on the issue , arguing that the former vice president had advocated for cuts to the program dating back to his days in the Senate .
Biden has denied it .
Sanders pressed the issue again Sunday night .
“ Have you been on the floor of the Senate , you were in the Senate for a few years , time and time again talking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about cutting Social Security , cutting Medicare , cutting veterans programs ?
” he asked .
“ All right , America , go to the website right now , go to the YouTube right now , ” Sanders exhorted .
Biden later said he “ did not talk about the need to cut any of those programs.
” The dispute : Sanders ’ campaign has run an ad saying that `` Biden has advocated cutting Social Security for 40 years '' and showing clips of Biden talking about the program , including a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which he called for a spending freeze on Social Security , Medicare and Medicaid as part of a proposal to address the national debt .
The facts : The clips are real , and Biden has at various times in his long career in politics supported freezes to cost-of-living adjustments and expressed openness to other changes to Social Security , including increasing the retirement age , in the context of plans and negotiations to address the national debt .
But various fact checkers have rated Sanders ’ attacks as “ misleading ” or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden offered proposals intended to counter more extreme options offered by Republicans .
At other times , Biden indicated a willingness to bargain with Republicans , though any deal resulting in spending reductions in entitlement programs was forever elusive , ” The Washington Post ’ s Glenn Kessler explained earlier this month .
The former vice president said at Sunday ’ s debate that , while everything was on the table for the Bowles-Simpson deficit-reduction commission formed under President Obama , he did not support any of the proposed cuts .
Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Social Security benefits , and his current campaign platform now includes a call to strengthen Social Security and have the program provide a larger benefit to older Americans .
What it all means : Biden ’ s past willingness to put Social Security on the table in negotiations is the crux of criticisms from Sanders and others on the left .
But with deficit concerns having largely faded from the political debate , Biden has sought to distance himself from those past positions in his current campaign .
Looking forward , the question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or his current policy position matters more .
The bottom line : Sanders ’ attacks , and Biden ’ s defense , might not matter much to voters preoccupied by the coronavirus pandemic .
“ I care about Biden ’ s position on Simpson-Bowles .
I really do , ” The Atlantic ’ s Franklin Foer tweeted .
“ But we can get back to the possibility that one million Americans might die because of government failure in the coming months ?
” Right now , all other issues seem secondary .

The most heated moments in Sunday night’s Democratic presidential primary debate came during an exchange between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders over Social Security.
For months now, Sanders has slammed Biden on the issue, arguing that the former vice president had advocated for cuts to the program dating back to his days in the Senate. Biden has denied it.
Sanders pressed the issue again Sunday night. “Have you been on the floor of the Senate, you were in the Senate for a few years, time and time again talking about the necessity, with pride, about cutting Social Security, cutting Medicare, cutting veterans programs?” he asked.
“No,” Biden said.
“All right, America, go to the website right now, go to the YouTube right now,” Sanders exhorted.
Biden later said he “did not talk about the need to cut any of those programs.”
The dispute: Sanders’ campaign has run an ad saying that "Biden has advocated cutting Social Security for 40 years" and showing clips of Biden talking about the program, including a speech as a senator in 1995 in which he called for a spending freeze on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as part of a proposal to address the national debt.
The facts: The clips are real, and Biden has at various times in his long career in politics supported freezes to cost-of-living adjustments and expressed openness to other changes to Social Security, including increasing the retirement age, in the context of plans and negotiations to address the national debt.
But various fact checkers have rated Sanders’ attacks as “misleading” or lacking context. “In some cases, Biden offered proposals intended to counter more extreme options offered by Republicans. At other times, Biden indicated a willingness to bargain with Republicans, though any deal resulting in spending reductions in entitlement programs was forever elusive,” The Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler explained earlier this month.
The former vice president said at Sunday’s debate that, while everything was on the table for the Bowles-Simpson deficit-reduction commission formed under President Obama, he did not support any of the proposed cuts. Biden has at other times sought to protect Social Security benefits, and his current campaign platform now includes a call to strengthen Social Security and have the program provide a larger benefit to older Americans.
What it all means: Biden’s past willingness to put Social Security on the table in negotiations is the crux of criticisms from Sanders and others on the left. But with deficit concerns having largely faded from the political debate, Biden has sought to distance himself from those past positions in his current campaign. Looking forward, the question is whether Biden’s past flexibility or his current policy position matters more.
The bottom line: Sanders’ attacks, and Biden’s defense, might not matter much to voters preoccupied by the coronavirus pandemic. “I care about Biden’s position on Simpson-Bowles. I really do,” The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer tweeted. “But we can get back to the possibility that one million Americans might die because of government failure in the coming months?” Right now, all other issues seem secondary.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-13--Trump Declares Coronavirus Emergency, Reaches Deal With Pelosi on Relief Bill

President Trump declared the coronavirus a national emergency on Friday and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that , after days of frenzied negotiations , she had reached an agreement with the administration on a large economic relief package meant to help Americans cope with the outbreak .
“ We are proud to have reached an agreement with the Administration to resolve outstanding challenges , and now will soon pass the Families First Coronavirus Response Act , ” Pelosi said in a statement Friday evening .
Hours earlier , Trump had indicated he did not yet support the deal .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are giving enough , ” he said from the White House Rose Garden .
Yet even as he was speaking , Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were holding their 10th and 11th calls of the day .
The negotiated package is focused on providing for free testing for everyone who needs it , including the uninsured , and also includes provisions for paid sick leave , enhanced unemployment insurance , strengthened nutritional security programs like food stamps and increased federal funding for Medicaid , according to Pelosi .
“ The three most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , testing , testing , ” the speaker said Friday .
Democrats had said throughout the day that they would push ahead with a vote on the revised package , with or without support from the administration and House Republicans .
`` I know how frustrating the past 48 hours have been .
The Speaker has literally been working around the clock to achieve a bipartisan agreement on our further response to the crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic , '' House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer wrote in a letter to colleagues .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 'll vote on it .
If not , we will vote today on our bill , which incorporates nearly all of what the Administration and Republicans have requested . ''
What Trump ’ s emergency declaration means : The president said his emergency declaration would allow for up to $ 50 billion in aid to flow to state and local governments .
It will enable the administration to tap the $ 42.6 billion in FEMA ’ s Disaster Relief Fund to help address the damage from the spread of the virus and enables @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cover 75 % of emergency expenses , including workers , tests and supplies .
• Discussed a newly announced partnership with the private sector to expand and speed testing for the virus , with widespread drive-through testing and 1.4 million additional tests to be made available next week and 5 million within the next month .
The administration had faced heated criticism from lawmakers in both parties about the problems with tests being available .
• Said he was waiving interest on all student loans held by federal agencies .
• Said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation ’ s strategic petroleum reserve .
Trump reportedly had resisted making the national emergency declaration earlier this week , despite pressure from local leaders and congressional Democrats .
On Thursday , he told reporters that me may do it “ at some point ” before adding that the Unites States is “ in great shape , ” especially compared to other countries .
“ Part of Trump ’ s hesitation to declare a national emergency has seemed to be about saving face , ” The Washington Post ’ s James Hohmann @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president ’ s previous messages downplaying the threat from the virus , comparing it to the seasonal flu and insisting that his administration had the outbreak under control .
Administration officials had also disagreed whether an emergency declaration was necessary , with some — possibly including Trump himself— reportedly worried that such a move would trigger panic in the financial markets .
Instead , major stock indexes surged Friday as Trump made the announcement , ending the day with their biggest one-day gains since October 2008 .
What ’ s next : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as expected Friday night , the Senate would take it up next week .
But this was just the second in what ’ s likely to be a series of bills responding to the coronavirus pandemic .
“ As the Senate works to pass this bill , the House will begin work on a third emergency response package to protect the health , economic security and well-being of the American people , ” Pelosi said .
This may have been the easy part , too , as consensus on next steps may be @ @ @ @ @

President Trump declared the coronavirus a national emergency on Friday and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that, after days of frenzied negotiations, she had reached an agreement with the administration on a large economic relief package meant to help Americans cope with the outbreak.
“We are proud to have reached an agreement with the Administration to resolve outstanding challenges, and now will soon pass the Families First Coronavirus Response Act,” Pelosi said in a statement Friday evening.
Hours earlier, Trump had indicated he did not yet support the deal. “We don’t think the Democrats are giving enough,” he said from the White House Rose Garden. Yet even as he was speaking, Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were holding their 10th and 11th calls of the day.
The negotiated package is focused on providing for free testing for everyone who needs it, including the uninsured, and also includes provisions for paid sick leave, enhanced unemployment insurance, strengthened nutritional security programs like food stamps and increased federal funding for Medicaid, according to Pelosi. “The three most important parts of this bill are testing, testing, testing,” the speaker said Friday.
Democrats had said throughout the day that they would push ahead with a vote on the revised package, with or without support from the administration and House Republicans.
"I know how frustrating the past 48 hours have been. The Speaker has literally been working around the clock to achieve a bipartisan agreement on our further response to the crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer wrote in a letter to colleagues. "If we reach agreement, we'll vote on it. If not, we will vote today on our bill, which incorporates nearly all of what the Administration and Republicans have requested."
What Trump’s emergency declaration means: The president said his emergency declaration would allow for up to $50 billion in aid to flow to state and local governments. It will enable the administration to tap the $42.6 billion in FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund to help address the damage from the spread of the virus and enables states to request that the federal government cover 75% of emergency expenses, including workers, tests and supplies.
Trump also:
Discussed a newly announced partnership with the private sector to expand and speed testing for the virus, with widespread drive-through testing and 1.4 million additional tests to be made available next week and 5 million within the next month. The administration had faced heated criticism from lawmakers in both parties about the problems with tests being available.
Said he was waiving interest on all student loans held by federal agencies.
Said the government would purchase crude oil to fill the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve.
Trump reportedly had resisted making the national emergency declaration earlier this week, despite pressure from local leaders and congressional Democrats. On Thursday, he told reporters that me may do it “at some point” before adding that the Unites States is “in great shape,” especially compared to other countries.
“Part of Trump’s hesitation to declare a national emergency has seemed to be about saving face,” The Washington Post’s James Hohmann suggested, since the declaration would contradict the president’s previous messages downplaying the threat from the virus, comparing it to the seasonal flu and insisting that his administration had the outbreak under control.
Administration officials had also disagreed whether an emergency declaration was necessary, with some — possibly including Trump himself— reportedly worried that such a move would trigger panic in the financial markets. Instead, major stock indexes surged Friday as Trump made the announcement, ending the day with their biggest one-day gains since October 2008.
What’s next: If the House passes the relief package as expected Friday night, the Senate would take it up next week. But this was just the second in what’s likely to be a series of bills responding to the coronavirus pandemic. “As the Senate works to pass this bill, the House will begin work on a third emergency response package to protect the health, economic security and well-being of the American people,” Pelosi said. This may have been the easy part, too, as consensus on next steps may be even harder to achieve.


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-13--Chart of the Day: Long Way to Go on Coronavirus Testing

The Air Force has scrapped a planned upgrade of its B-2 stealth bomber fleet — even after spending $ 2 @ @ @ @ @ because defense contractor Northrup Grumman didn ’ t have the necessary software expertise to complete @ @ @ @ @ on budget , Bloomberg ’ s Anthony Capaccio reports , citing the Pentagon ’ s @ @ @ @ @ Lord , the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment , told reporters that the @ @ @ @ @ had already been spent on the program wasn ’ t wasted because “ we are @ @ @ @ @ electronic displays .
”

The Air Force has scrapped a planned upgrade of its B-2 stealth bomber fleet — even after spending $2 billion on the effort — because defense contractor Northrup Grumman didn’t have the necessary software expertise to complete the project on time and on budget, Bloomberg’s Anthony Capaccio reports, citing the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer.
Ellen Lord, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told reporters that the nearly $2 billion that had already been spent on the program wasn’t wasted because “we are still going to get upgraded electronic displays.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-12--Trump’s Payroll Tax Cut Would Cost Nearly $1 Trillion: Analysis

The Trump administration is pushing for a massive temporary tax cut in response to the economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic .
The proposal , which is still being discussed in the White House despite receiving a cool reception on Capitol Hill , calls for the suspension of all Social Security payroll taxes starting next month through the end of the year .
According to Jim Tankersley of The New York Times , who spoke to White House economic advisor Peter Navarro about the details of the plan , the temporary cut would eliminate the Social Security and Medicare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Currently , workers pay 6.2 % for Social Security and 1.45 % for Medicare , and their employers pay the same .
Self-employed workers , who cover the full 15.3 % tax on their own , would also be relieved of their obligations .
Estimates of the cost of the tax cut proposal vary .
The Tax Foundation says the revenue loss would likely exceed $ 900 billion , while the Committee for a Responsible Budget puts the cost at about $ 840 billion .
On top of the payroll tax cut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to industries affected by the outbreak , such as airlines and cruise ships , which could total tens or hundreds of billions of dollars more .
All told , Trump ’ s stimulus package would likely exceed $ 1 trillion — enough to push the annual deficit toward the $ 2 trillion mark for the year .
In a note to clients Thursday , Chris Krueger of Cowen Research compared the proposal to other recent stimulus and emergency spending packages : “ For historical context , Congress authorized $ 65B in recovery spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airlines ) , $ 787B stimulus in 2009 , $ 100B in 2005 post Katrina , $ 7B in 2009 for H1N1 , $ 51B in 2012 post Sandy & $ 5.4B in 2015 for Ebola .
”

The Trump administration is pushing for a massive temporary tax cut in response to the economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The proposal, which is still being discussed in the White House despite receiving a cool reception on Capitol Hill, calls for the suspension of all Social Security payroll taxes starting next month through the end of the year.
According to Jim Tankersley of The New York Times, who spoke to White House economic advisor Peter Navarro about the details of the plan, the temporary cut would eliminate the Social Security and Medicare taxes paid by both employees and employers. Currently, workers pay 6.2% for Social Security and 1.45% for Medicare, and their employers pay the same. Self-employed workers, who cover the full 15.3% tax on their own, would also be relieved of their obligations.
Estimates of the cost of the tax cut proposal vary. The Tax Foundation says the revenue loss would likely exceed $900 billion, while the Committee for a Responsible Budget puts the cost at about $840 billion.
On top of the payroll tax cut, Trump has also proposed substantial assistance to industries affected by the outbreak, such as airlines and cruise ships, which could total tens or hundreds of billions of dollars more.
All told, Trump’s stimulus package would likely exceed $1 trillion — enough to push the annual deficit toward the $2 trillion mark for the year.
In a note to clients Thursday, Chris Krueger of Cowen Research compared the proposal to other recent stimulus and emergency spending packages: “For historical context, Congress authorized $65B in recovery spending post 9/11 (+ $15B for airlines), $787B stimulus in 2009, $100B in 2005 post Katrina, $7B in 2009 for H1N1, $51B in 2012 post Sandy & $5.4B in 2015 for Ebola.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-11--Treasury Wants to Delay April 15 Tax Deadline for Most Filers

The Trump administration plans to push the April 15 tax filing deadline to a later date in response to the coronavirus outbreak , Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Wednesday .
The delay will apply “ to virtually all Americans , other than the superrich , ” including most individuals as well as many small and medium-sized businesses , Mnuchin told reporters on Capitol Hill .
Under the plan , tax payments could be deferred to an as-yet-undefined date without penalty or interest , with the goal of keeping billions of dollars in the hands of consumers and business owners .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have the impact of putting over $ 200 billion back into the economy , and that will create a very big stimulus.
” Treasury officials say they have the authority to waive penalties , The Wall Street Journal reported , and are looking into the possibility that the declaration of a national emergency would enable them to waive interest .
The delay could affect federal borrowing , since April is the biggest month for revenues as taxpayers send their payments to the IRS , with $ 333 billion coming in last year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay its bills on time , though Mnuchin said issuing more Treasury bills “ shouldn ’ t be an issue .
”

The Trump administration plans to push the April 15 tax filing deadline to a later date in response to the coronavirus outbreak, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Wednesday.
The delay will apply “to virtually all Americans, other than the superrich,” including most individuals as well as many small and medium-sized businesses, Mnuchin told reporters on Capitol Hill.
Under the plan, tax payments could be deferred to an as-yet-undefined date without penalty or interest, with the goal of keeping billions of dollars in the hands of consumers and business owners. Mnuchin said the filing delay “will have the impact of putting over $200 billion back into the economy, and that will create a very big stimulus.”
Treasury officials say they have the authority to waive penalties, The Wall Street Journal reported, and are looking into the possibility that the declaration of a national emergency would enable them to waive interest.
The delay could affect federal borrowing, since April is the biggest month for revenues as taxpayers send their payments to the IRS, with $333 billion coming in last year. The Treasury may have to borrow more to pay its bills on time, though Mnuchin said issuing more Treasury bills “shouldn’t be an issue.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-03-16--$1,000 for Every American?

$1,000 for Every American?

More lawmakers are beginning to think that the best way to combat the coronavirus recession is to hand out cold @ @ @ @ @ on Monday Sen. Mitt Romney proposed to give every American adult $ 1,000 to boost @ @ @ @ @ effects of the coronavirus pandemic .
The checks would “ help ensure families and workers @ @ @ @ @ and increase spending in the economy , ” the Republican lawmaker from Utah said in @ @ @ @ @ is similar to one put forth by former Obama economic adviser Jason Furman in The @ @ @ @ @ ago .
Saying that Congress will need to provide additional support to the economy above @ @ @ @ @ currently consideration in the Senate , Romney also proposed a grant program run by the @ @ @ @ @ short-term costs including payroll and rent ; assistance for students facing unexpected expenses this year @ @ @ @ @ payments ; and a temporary requirement that health insurance plans provide telehealth services in order @ @ @ @ @ workforce and connect patients with providers .
”

More lawmakers are beginning to think that the best way to combat the coronavirus recession is to hand out cold, hard cash, and on Monday Sen. Mitt Romney proposed to give every American adult $1,000 to boost an economy reeling from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
The checks would “help ensure families and workers can meet their short-term obligations and increase spending in the economy,” the Republican lawmaker from Utah said in a statement.
The proposal is similar to one put forth by former Obama economic adviser Jason Furman in The Wall Street Journal two weeks ago.
Saying that Congress will need to provide additional support to the economy above and beyond the House bill currently consideration in the Senate, Romney also proposed a grant program run by the Small Business Administration to cover short-term costs including payroll and rent; assistance for students facing unexpected expenses this year; deferment of student loan payments; and a temporary requirement that health insurance plans provide telehealth services in order to “protect the health workforce and connect patients with providers.”