thefiscaltimes--2020-05-29--$1,200 Checks? $450 Bonuses? The Latest on the Next Coronavirus Lifeline

Congress has provided a lifeline for millions of Americans hurt by the coronavirus pandemic , providing a boost to incomes via one-time direct payments and implementing a range of other emergency programs to prevent more widespread financial hardship , joblessness and hunger .
“ This summer , ” writes Ben Casselman at The New York Times , “ that lifeline could snap.
” As states continue to reopen and Congress considers the contours of a next coronavirus relief package , many of the unprecedented steps taken to help businesses and consumers weather the pandemic and economic shutdown are set to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have benefited — and for the economy overall .
“ The $ 1,200 checks sent to most households are long gone , at least for those who needed them most , with little imminent prospect for a second round .
The lending program that helped millions of small businesses keep workers on the payroll will wind down if Congress does not extend it .
Eviction moratoriums that are keeping people in their homes are expiring in many cities , ” Casselman writes .
“ And the $ 600 per week in extra unemployment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of laid-off workers to pay rent and buy groceries will expire at the end of July.
” Aneta Markowska , chief financial economist for the investment bank Jefferies , tells the Times that the legislation passed thus far , including the $ 2.2 trillion CARES Act , won ’ t be enough .
“ The CARES Act was massive , but it was a very short-term offset to what is likely to be a long-term problem , ” she says .
“ This economy is clearly going to need more support.
” What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s the latest : McConnell says decision on ‘ fourth and final ’ bill will come in about a month : The $ 3 trillion package passed by the House this month has little chance of getting through the Senate , where Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , while acknowledging this week that another aid bill is likely , has pushed for a pause , and for any additional legislation to be narrow .
McConnell added Friday that the next coronavirus relief bill will be the final one .
“ We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fourth and final bill , ” McConnell said Friday .
“ You could anticipate the decision being made on whether to go forward in about a month .
And it will be narrowly crafted , designed to help us where we are a month from now , not where we were three months ago.
” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats have been urging Republicans to start negotiating immediately .
`` The cost of Republican inaction grows every day , ” Schumer said Thursday .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their hands and work in a bipartisan way to provide the immediate help workers and families need.
” Some Dems skeptical about more $ 1,200 stimulus checks : House Democrats included another round of $ 1,200 relief payments in their bill , but the idea of additional direct payments faces oppositions not only from Senate Republicans but some Democrats as well , The Hill ’ s Alexander Bolton reports .
“ I think the next round we ’ ve got to be more targeted to those who are really in need , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to The Hill .
“ So I hope we can target this a little bit better to those who have been hit hard because of COVID-19.
” And Sen. Ron Wyden ( D-OR ) says that he would support another round of direct payments but that isn ’ t his top priority .
“ My top priorities are tying expanded unemployment benefits to economic conditions and providing more help for the smallest of small businesses , ” he said in a statement cited by The Hill .
$ 450 ‘ back-to-work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With Republicans opposed to extending the $ 600-a-week in enhanced unemployment benefits set to expire at the end of July , Sen .
Rob Portman ( R-OH ) has proposed that the federal government provide payments of $ 450 a week for several weeks to people who go back to work and stop collecting unemployment .
President Trump , who reportedly opposes extending the $ 600 unemployment-benefit boost , likes the back-to-work bonus idea , according to The Washington Post .
`` We 've got to reward individuals for coming back to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s top economic adviser , said Friday on Fox News .
`` There will be some kind of re-employment bonus .
We 're not going to go to the $ 600 , that 's a disincentive to work . ''
Discussions are reportedly ongoing about how big the bonus should be and how long it should last .
Some White House officials and Rep. Kevin Brady ( R-TX ) have discussed allowing returning workers to get up to $ 1,200 , the Post says .
There are still concerns about the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 450 gives people an extra incentive to go back to work , ” Diane Swonk , chief economist at Grant Thornton , told the Post .
“ But the real issue is , how many jobs will we have and what kind of risk are people taking to go back to work ?
” Economists widely expect the unemployment rate to stay above 10 % through the end of the year , meaning that back-to-work bonuses may have more limited reach .
“ If you talk about a return-to-work bonus and you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s a problem , ” labor economist Martha Gimbel of Schmidt Futures told the Post .
“ We know a lot of people will still be unemployed.
” The bottom line : It ’ s likely going to be awhile before significant progress is made on the next coronavirus bill .
A summer calendar sent by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer ( D-MD ) shows no votes happening before June 30 , though Hoyer wrote to colleagues Friday that he expects the House will be in session “ at some point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acts on a bill .

Congress has provided a lifeline for millions of Americans hurt by the coronavirus pandemic, providing a boost to incomes via one-time direct payments and implementing a range of other emergency programs to prevent more widespread financial hardship, joblessness and hunger.
“This summer,” writes Ben Casselman at The New York Times, “that lifeline could snap.”
As states continue to reopen and Congress considers the contours of a next coronavirus relief package, many of the unprecedented steps taken to help businesses and consumers weather the pandemic and economic shutdown are set to expire, creating uncertainty for those who have benefited — and for the economy overall.
“The $1,200 checks sent to most households are long gone, at least for those who needed them most, with little imminent prospect for a second round. The lending program that helped millions of small businesses keep workers on the payroll will wind down if Congress does not extend it. Eviction moratoriums that are keeping people in their homes are expiring in many cities,” Casselman writes. “And the $600 per week in extra unemployment benefits that have allowed tens of millions of laid-off workers to pay rent and buy groceries will expire at the end of July.”
Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist for the investment bank Jefferies, tells the Times that the legislation passed thus far, including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, won’t be enough. “The CARES Act was massive, but it was a very short-term offset to what is likely to be a long-term problem,” she says. “This economy is clearly going to need more support.”
What might that support look like? Here’s the latest:
McConnell says decision on ‘fourth and final’ bill will come in about a month: The $3 trillion package passed by the House this month has little chance of getting through the Senate, where Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, while acknowledging this week that another aid bill is likely, has pushed for a pause, and for any additional legislation to be narrow. McConnell added Friday that the next coronavirus relief bill will be the final one.
“We’re taking a careful look at a fourth and final bill,” McConnell said Friday. “You could anticipate the decision being made on whether to go forward in about a month. And it will be narrowly crafted, designed to help us where we are a month from now, not where we were three months ago.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats have been urging Republicans to start negotiating immediately. "The cost of Republican inaction grows every day,” Schumer said Thursday. “Senate Republicans ought to stop sitting on their hands and work in a bipartisan way to provide the immediate help workers and families need.”
Some Dems skeptical about more $1,200 stimulus checks: House Democrats included another round of $1,200 relief payments in their bill, but the idea of additional direct payments faces oppositions not only from Senate Republicans but some Democrats as well, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.
“I think the next round we’ve got to be more targeted to those who are really in need,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), according to The Hill. “So I hope we can target this a little bit better to those who have been hit hard because of COVID-19.” And Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) says that he would support another round of direct payments but that isn’t his top priority. “My top priorities are tying expanded unemployment benefits to economic conditions and providing more help for the smallest of small businesses,” he said in a statement cited by The Hill.
$450 ‘back-to-work’ bonuses may be gaining momentum: With Republicans opposed to extending the $600-a-week in enhanced unemployment benefits set to expire at the end of July, Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) has proposed that the federal government provide payments of $450 a week for several weeks to people who go back to work and stop collecting unemployment.
President Trump, who reportedly opposes extending the $600 unemployment-benefit boost, likes the back-to-work bonus idea, according to The Washington Post. "We've got to reward individuals for coming back to work," Larry Kudlow, the president’s top economic adviser, said Friday on Fox News. "There will be some kind of re-employment bonus. We're not going to go to the $600, that's a disincentive to work."
Discussions are reportedly ongoing about how big the bonus should be and how long it should last. Some White House officials and Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) have discussed allowing returning workers to get up to $1,200, the Post says.
There are still concerns about the idea, though. “An extra $450 gives people an extra incentive to go back to work,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, told the Post. “But the real issue is, how many jobs will we have and what kind of risk are people taking to go back to work?”
Economists widely expect the unemployment rate to stay above 10% through the end of the year, meaning that back-to-work bonuses may have more limited reach. “If you talk about a return-to-work bonus and you’re not also extending unemployment insurance, that’s a problem,” labor economist Martha Gimbel of Schmidt Futures told the Post. “We know a lot of people will still be unemployed.”
The bottom line: It’s likely going to be awhile before significant progress is made on the next coronavirus bill. A summer calendar sent by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) shows no votes happening before June 30, though Hoyer wrote to colleagues Friday that he expects the House will be in session “at some point in June,” once the Senate acts on a bill.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-02--Chart of the Day: The Dire State of State Tax Revenues

Lucy Dadayan of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center breaks down the good , the bad and the ugly of the fiscal crisis facing states as the coronavirus pandemic crushes revenues and raises costs .
“ Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic , most states were generating solid revenue growth .
And many built up robust rainy day funds .
But the pandemic has largely wiped out earlier revenue gains and most states now anticipate substantial revenue shortfalls for the current fiscal year and for fiscal year 2021 , ” she writes .
The good : Preliminary April tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimated and final annual tax payments as the tax-filing deadline got pushed back from April 15 to July 15 .
But taxes withheld from paychecks grew in 17 states compared to April 2019 .
“ Tax withholding is usually a better indicator of the current strength of the economy and of the path for personal income tax revenue because it comes largely from current wages , ” Dadayen explains .
On the other hand , 16 states reported declines of less than 10 % , while five states posted double-digits drops , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad : “ Declines in sales tax revenues have been fast , steep , and widespread across the states , ” Dadayen writes .
How steep ?
April sales tax revenues fell by 16 % across 42 states for which the Tax Policy Center has complete data .
Twenty-three states reported double-digit declines , while just five states reported year-over-year growth .
And since the April data mostly reflect March sales , the May numbers are likely to be even worse .
The ugly : For the fiscal year so far , total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and next year is expected to be worse .
“ With two months remaining in the fiscal year for 46 states , total state tax revenues are now down about $ 57 billion , compared to last year , ” Dadayen writes .
After the sharp pandemic-related plunge in April , tax revenues have fallen in 34 states compared to 2019 and risen in 12 .
( New York , the state hit hardest by the virus , is surprisingly among those dozen , but Dadayen says that ’ s only because its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so April ’ s devastation isn ’ t reflected in the data .
The state reported that net taxes and fees collected in April , the first month of its new fiscal year , fell by 69 % compared with April 2019 . )

Lucy Dadayan of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center breaks down the good, the bad and the ugly of the fiscal crisis facing states as the coronavirus pandemic crushes revenues and raises costs.
“Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, most states were generating solid revenue growth. And many built up robust rainy day funds. But the pandemic has largely wiped out earlier revenue gains and most states now anticipate substantial revenue shortfalls for the current fiscal year and for fiscal year 2021,” she writes.
The good: Preliminary April tax revenue data show a steep drop in estimated and final annual tax payments as the tax-filing deadline got pushed back from April 15 to July 15. But taxes withheld from paychecks grew in 17 states compared to April 2019. “Tax withholding is usually a better indicator of the current strength of the economy and of the path for personal income tax revenue because it comes largely from current wages,” Dadayen explains. On the other hand, 16 states reported declines of less than 10%, while five states posted double-digits drops, so the bright spots are limited.
The bad: “Declines in sales tax revenues have been fast, steep, and widespread across the states,” Dadayen writes. How steep? April sales tax revenues fell by 16% across 42 states for which the Tax Policy Center has complete data. Twenty-three states reported double-digit declines, while just five states reported year-over-year growth. And since the April data mostly reflect March sales, the May numbers are likely to be even worse.
The ugly: For the fiscal year so far, total state tax revenue has fallen sharply — and next year is expected to be worse. “With two months remaining in the fiscal year for 46 states, total state tax revenues are now down about $57 billion, compared to last year,” Dadayen writes.
After the sharp pandemic-related plunge in April, tax revenues have fallen in 34 states compared to 2019 and risen in 12. (New York, the state hit hardest by the virus, is surprisingly among those dozen, but Dadayen says that’s only because its fiscal year 2020 ended in March, so April’s devastation isn’t reflected in the data. The state reported that net taxes and fees collected in April, the first month of its new fiscal year, fell by 69% compared with April 2019.)


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-02--A Third of Unemployment Benefits Haven’t Been Paid Out: Report

The U.S. Treasury paid out $ 146 billion in jobless benefits in the three months ending in May as tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic .
Although the number is massive – larger than all of the unemployment benefits provided during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009 – it ’ s smaller than it should have been , according to a new analysis by Bloomberg News .
Crunching the numbers on weekly unemployment filings and average claim size , Bloomberg found that total jobless benefits should have come to roughly $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The estimated gap of some $ 67 billion shows how emergency efforts to boost payments , and deliver them via creaking state-level systems , are lagging the needs of a jobs crisis that ’ s seen more than 40 million people file for unemployment as the economy shut down , ” Bloomberg ’ s Shawn Donnan and Catarina Saraiva wrote Tuesday .
A tough calculation : Although it ’ s hard to put a precise number on the shortfall – the Labor Department pushed back against the method used by Bloomberg to develop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there are many people who still haven ’ t received the unemployment assistance they are entitled to .
“ There ’ s a lot more money that should have gone out that has not gone out , ” said Jay Shambaugh , an economist at the Brookings Institution who has been studying the issue .
And Bloomberg says its analysis likely provides a conservative estimate of the shortfall .
Some states are still working through backlogs of unemployment claims – Texas alone is waiting to verify nearly 650,000 cases – and more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retroactive benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program for independent contractors .
Why it matters : In addition to the unnecessary suffering the delays are causing , the shortfall is reducing the positive economic effect that unemployment benefits are intended to provide .
“ On paper the U.S. strategy is very generous , ” Ernie Tedeschi , a former U.S. Treasury economist now at Evercore ISI , told Bloomberg .
“ But that generosity on paper is meaningless if it doesn ’ t translate into actual money in people ’ s pockets when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton , said she is worried that lawmakers are experiencing “ fiscal fatigue ” as the crisis wears on , risking a falloff in aid that could prolong the recession .
“ We ’ re really talking about an economy that is going to be operating at a fraction of its capacity for a long period of time , ” she told Bloomberg .

The U.S. Treasury paid out $146 billion in jobless benefits in the three months ending in May as tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic. Although the number is massive – larger than all of the unemployment benefits provided during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009 – it’s smaller than it should have been, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg News. Crunching the numbers on weekly unemployment filings and average claim size, Bloomberg found that total jobless benefits should have come to roughly $214 billion during that time.
“The estimated gap of some $67 billion shows how emergency efforts to boost payments, and deliver them via creaking state-level systems, are lagging the needs of a jobs crisis that’s seen more than 40 million people file for unemployment as the economy shut down,” Bloomberg’s Shawn Donnan and Catarina Saraiva wrote Tuesday.
A tough calculation: Although it’s hard to put a precise number on the shortfall – the Labor Department pushed back against the method used by Bloomberg to develop its estimate – there is general agreement that there are many people who still haven’t received the unemployment assistance they are entitled to. “There’s a lot more money that should have gone out that has not gone out,” said Jay Shambaugh, an economist at the Brookings Institution who has been studying the issue.
And Bloomberg says its analysis likely provides a conservative estimate of the shortfall. Some states are still working through backlogs of unemployment claims – Texas alone is waiting to verify nearly 650,000 cases – and more than 7 million people are still owed retroactive benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program for independent contractors.
Why it matters: In addition to the unnecessary suffering the delays are causing, the shortfall is reducing the positive economic effect that unemployment benefits are intended to provide. “On paper the U.S. strategy is very generous,” Ernie Tedeschi, a former U.S. Treasury economist now at Evercore ISI, told Bloomberg. “But that generosity on paper is meaningless if it doesn’t translate into actual money in people’s pockets when they need it.”
Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, said she is worried that lawmakers are experiencing “fiscal fatigue” as the crisis wears on, risking a falloff in aid that could prolong the recession. “We’re really talking about an economy that is going to be operating at a fraction of its capacity for a long period of time,” she told Bloomberg.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-01--IRS Letting High-Income Tax Cheats Dodge Billions in Payments: Watchdog

The Internal Revenue Service is failing to crack down on hundreds of thousands of high-income people who owe billions of dollars in taxes , according to a new report by the agency ’ s government watchdog .
The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration identified almost 880,000 individuals making $ 100,000 a year or more who didn ’ t file tax returns from 2014 to 2016 .
Collectively , those “ nonfilers ” owed an estimated $ 45.7 billion in taxes .
An estimated 1,891 nonfilers owed more than $ 1 million apiece , or about $ 13.5 billion collectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimated $ 9.9 billion in total .
The inspector general ’ s audit found that the IRS did not investigate or try to collect in more than 40 % of those roughly 880,000 cases , representing an estimated total tax bill of $ 20.8 billion .
The IRS never entered 326,579 of the cases into its compliance system , and another 42,601 cases were closed out of the system without the agency ever working on them .
The more than 510,000 remaining cases , with $ 24.9 billion in estimated taxes due , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resources decline , ” the report says .
The IRS has faced repeated budget cuts until recently and the report says that collections staff declined by 19 % from fiscal year 2013 through fiscal year 2018 .
“ Pursuing nonfilers is one of the IRS ’ s most efficient enforcement strategies because issuing nonfiler notices can be a cost-effective tool that requires little more than automated notices , ” the report says .
“ Previous IRS research studies from decades ago noted that at that time , the IRS pursued most nonfiler leads @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that no longer appears to be the case.
” The watchdog report makes seven recommendations , including that the IRS reallocate resources to ensure that most or all high-income tax cheats are subject to enforcement action .
It also says that the IRS is missing out on opportunities to fully crack down on repeat tax cheats by working on cases one tax year at a time .
IRS management disagreed with one of the recommendations , agreed with two and partially agreed with the other four .
Why it matters : Beyond the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ IRS funding , tax cheats also cost the rest of us who do pay taxes .
As Bloomberg News reports : “ The average U.S. household is paying an annual surtax of more than $ 3,000 to subsidize taxpayers who aren ’ t paying all they owe , the Taxpayer Advocate Service , an independent oversight office within the IRS , found in January .
The calculation is based on the assumption that the government is seeking to collect a fixed amount of revenue , leaving compliant taxpayers to pay more to subsidize @ @ @

The Internal Revenue Service is failing to crack down on hundreds of thousands of high-income people who owe billions of dollars in taxes, according to a new report by the agency’s government watchdog.
The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration identified almost 880,000 individuals making $100,000 a year or more who didn’t file tax returns from 2014 to 2016. Collectively, those “nonfilers” owed an estimated $45.7 billion in taxes.
An estimated 1,891 nonfilers owed more than $1 million apiece, or about $13.5 billion collectively. The top 100 nonfilers owed an estimated $9.9 billion in total.
The inspector general’s audit found that the IRS did not investigate or try to collect in more than 40% of those roughly 880,000 cases, representing an estimated total tax bill of $20.8 billion. The IRS never entered 326,579 of the cases into its compliance system, and another 42,601 cases were closed out of the system without the agency ever working on them.
The more than 510,000 remaining cases, with $24.9 billion in estimated taxes due, “will likely not be pursued as resources decline,” the report says. The IRS has faced repeated budget cuts until recently and the report says that collections staff declined by 19% from fiscal year 2013 through fiscal year 2018.
“Pursuing nonfilers is one of the IRS’s most efficient enforcement strategies because issuing nonfiler notices can be a cost-effective tool that requires little more than automated notices,” the report says. “Previous IRS research studies from decades ago noted that at that time, the IRS pursued most nonfiler leads. However, with some exceptions, that no longer appears to be the case.”
The watchdog report makes seven recommendations, including that the IRS reallocate resources to ensure that most or all high-income tax cheats are subject to enforcement action. It also says that the IRS is missing out on opportunities to fully crack down on repeat tax cheats by working on cases one tax year at a time. IRS management disagreed with one of the recommendations, agreed with two and partially agreed with the other four.
Why it matters: Beyond the obvious implications for the federal budget and IRS funding, tax cheats also cost the rest of us who do pay taxes. As Bloomberg News reports: “The average U.S. household is paying an annual surtax of more than $3,000 to subsidize taxpayers who aren’t paying all they owe, the Taxpayer Advocate Service, an independent oversight office within the IRS, found in January. The calculation is based on the assumption that the government is seeking to collect a fixed amount of revenue, leaving compliant taxpayers to pay more to subsidize noncompliance.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-03--Nearly 70% of Coronavirus Relief Funds Have Been Spent or Committed

Congress has provided roughly $ 1.6 trillion in direct payments to assist individuals , businesses , hospitals , states and municipalities struggling during the coronavirus pandemic , and about 70 % of the funds have already been distributed or committed , according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal .
The money includes $ 1.2 trillion allocated in March by the CARES Act , which has provided enhanced benefits for unemployed workers , forgivable loans for small businesses and direct cash payments for households , hospitals , cities and states .
In April , Congress added another $ 400 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitals .
“ This fiscal stimulus has spent out very quickly relative to reasonable expectations , certainly relative to historical expectations , which is to the credit of the administration , ” Ernie Tedeschi , an economist with Evercore ISI who served in the Obama Treasury Department , told the Journal .
“ In terms of the core assistance to households and businesses , we ’ re already past the peak.
” • Paycheck Protection Program : The program providing forgivable loans to small business has disbursed or committed $ 511 billion out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 .
• Economic Impact Payments : The Internal Revenue Service has sent $ 258 billion in direct payments to households , or about 89 % of the expected 2020 total .
About $ 35 billion in payments remain .
• Coronavirus Relief Fund : As of May 20 , the Treasury had disbursed $ 144.3 billion out of $ 150 billion provided for states , territories and tribal governments .
Hospitals still waiting for help : One pot of money that notably hasn ’ t been spent down is the $ 175 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care providers .
The Journal reports that only $ 46 billion has been disbursed .
A report by Politico notes that the Department of Health and Human Services says it has allocated about $ 77 billion of the total , leaving nearly $ 100 billion held up by uncertainty over how best to distribute the funds .
“ The delay has prompted complaints by both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill , and left the nation ’ s safety net hospitals and clinics with relatively little federal support during a pandemic that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lines and decimated their finances , ” Politico ’ s Adam Cancryn writes .
Individual payments stand out : Economists generally agree that the stimulus payments for individuals and enhanced unemployment benefits have had a powerful effect on the economy , since they helped keep households afloat in recent weeks .
The question now is just how much more Congress should provide to keep those households going – and the answer depends on a range of issues , including the pace of the economic recovery , the spread of the disease over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccines and treatments , and lawmakers ’ willingness to keep running up the deficit .
More money in other pipelines : Congress has provided roughly $ 3.3 trillion in economic aid overall , and much of the business-focused assistance has yet to be spent .
Treasury has $ 500 billion to spend backing up emergency loans through the Federal Reserve , a program that hasn ’ t yet begun .
And Health and Human Services has been granted $ 330 billion for disease research , which it can spend over the next year @ @ @ @

Congress has provided roughly $1.6 trillion in direct payments to assist individuals, businesses, hospitals, states and municipalities struggling during the coronavirus pandemic, and about 70% of the funds have already been distributed or committed, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.
The money includes $1.2 trillion allocated in March by the CARES Act, which has provided enhanced benefits for unemployed workers, forgivable loans for small businesses and direct cash payments for households, hospitals, cities and states. In April, Congress added another $400 billion in aid for small businesses and hospitals.
“This fiscal stimulus has spent out very quickly relative to reasonable expectations, certainly relative to historical expectations, which is to the credit of the administration,” Ernie Tedeschi, an economist with Evercore ISI who served in the Obama Treasury Department, told the Journal. “In terms of the core assistance to households and businesses, we’re already past the peak.”
Here’s the Journal’s tally of major coronavirus relief programs:
Paycheck Protection Program: The program providing forgivable loans to small business has disbursed or committed $511 billion out of $670 billion as of May 30.
The program providing forgivable loans to small business has disbursed or committed $511 billion out of $670 billion as of May 30. Economic Impact Payments: The Internal Revenue Service has sent $258 billion in direct payments to households, or about 89% of the expected 2020 total. About $35 billion in payments remain.
The Internal Revenue Service has sent $258 billion in direct payments to households, or about 89% of the expected 2020 total. About $35 billion in payments remain. Coronavirus Relief Fund: As of May 20, the Treasury had disbursed $144.3 billion out of $150 billion provided for states, territories and tribal governments.
Hospitals still waiting for help: One pot of money that notably hasn’t been spent down is the $175 billion provided to help hospitals and health care providers. The Journal reports that only $46 billion has been disbursed. A report by Politico notes that the Department of Health and Human Services says it has allocated about $77 billion of the total, leaving nearly $100 billion held up by uncertainty over how best to distribute the funds. “The delay has prompted complaints by both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill, and left the nation’s safety net hospitals and clinics with relatively little federal support during a pandemic that’s simultaneously thrust them onto the front lines and decimated their finances,” Politico’s Adam Cancryn writes.
Individual payments stand out: Economists generally agree that the stimulus payments for individuals and enhanced unemployment benefits have had a powerful effect on the economy, since they helped keep households afloat in recent weeks. The question now is just how much more Congress should provide to keep those households going – and the answer depends on a range of issues, including the pace of the economic recovery, the spread of the disease over the next few months, the prospects for vaccines and treatments, and lawmakers’ willingness to keep running up the deficit.
More money in other pipelines: Congress has provided roughly $3.3 trillion in economic aid overall, and much of the business-focused assistance has yet to be spent. Treasury has $500 billion to spend backing up emergency loans through the Federal Reserve, a program that hasn’t yet begun. And Health and Human Services has been granted $330 billion for disease research, which it can spend over the next year and a half.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-03--Divided Senate Confirms Trump-Appointed Coronavirus Relief Watchdog

The Senate voted along largely partisan Tuesday lines to confirm a White House lawyer nominated by President Trump to oversee the Treasury Department ’ s use of $ 500 billion in coronavirus recovery funds .
Senators voted 51-40 to confirm Brian Miller , a White House lawyer since 2018 who previously worked as a federal prosecutor and inspector general for the General Services Administration , as special inspector general for the pandemic recovery fund .
The position , created as part of the $ 2.2 trillion CARES Act passed in March , is certain to be highly scrutinized .
Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House and questioned his ability to serve as an independent watchdog .
`` As an IG nominee with personal ties to the White House Counsel 's Office and an administration outwardly hostile to anyone who tries to hold the president accountable , Mr. Miller failed in committee to explain , or in the letters afterwards , how he will establish his independence from his current boss , '' Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown said of Miller .
Senator Doug Jones of Alabama was the only Democrat to vote for Miller .
During @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pledged he would not seek Trump ’ s approval before communicating with Congress and would resist any pressure from the administration to undercut his independence .
`` If confirmed , I will conduct every audit and investigation with fairness and impartiality , '' Miller said at his hearing .
`` I will be vigilant to protect the integrity and independence of the Office of Special Inspector General . ''
The president , chafing at oversight , has fired several inspectors general in recent months , triggering criticism that the moves were political retaliation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a budget of $ 25 million .

The Senate voted along largely partisan Tuesday lines to confirm a White House lawyer nominated by President Trump to oversee the Treasury Department’s use of $500 billion in coronavirus recovery funds.
Senators voted 51-40 to confirm Brian Miller, a White House lawyer since 2018 who previously worked as a federal prosecutor and inspector general for the General Services Administration, as special inspector general for the pandemic recovery fund.
The position, created as part of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act passed in March, is certain to be highly scrutinized.
Democrats have criticized Miller’s work at the White House and questioned his ability to serve as an independent watchdog. "As an IG nominee with personal ties to the White House Counsel's Office and an administration outwardly hostile to anyone who tries to hold the president accountable, Mr. Miller failed in committee to explain, or in the letters afterwards, how he will establish his independence from his current boss," Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown said of Miller. Senator Doug Jones of Alabama was the only Democrat to vote for Miller.
During his confirmation hearing last month, Miller pledged he would not seek Trump’s approval before communicating with Congress and would resist any pressure from the administration to undercut his independence. "If confirmed, I will conduct every audit and investigation with fairness and impartiality," Miller said at his hearing. "I will be vigilant to protect the integrity and independence of the Office of Special Inspector General."
The president, chafing at oversight, has fired several inspectors general in recent months, triggering criticism that the moves were political retaliation.
Miller's office will reportedly have a budget of $25 million.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-03--No More $1,200 Stimulus Checks, Says GOP

Democrats in the House are pushing for another massive relief bill with more than $ 3 trillion in additional spending , but Republicans have called for a pause to give lawmakers a chance to evaluate the strength of the economy and the effectiveness of the money provided so far .
And GOP leaders are increasingly expressing doubts about the need to provide another round of $ 1,200 stimulus payments .
Sen. James Lankford ( R-OK ) said Tuesday that the CARES Act was necessary and effective , but the situation has changed .
“ Most folks are very grateful for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ But I don ’ t think we should set up a situation where we ’ re doing a check month after month after month.
” Sen. Mitt Romney ( R-UT ) said that another round of direct stimulus checks is “ unlikely , ” not least due to growing concerns about their cost .
“ I think it ’ s important for us to consider how we ’ re going to pay for all this and specifically how we ’ re going to deal with the structural deficit we have that adds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I hope that ’ s part of the next package , ” he said .
Some Democrats in the Senate have also expressed doubts about sending out more stimulus checks , preferring instead to focus on employment and institutions .
“ My concern is that it ’ s not focused in a way that is designed to help create or help sustain jobs , to deal with rental housing or education , ” said Sen. Christopher Coons ( D-DE ) .
“ My top priority is a robust round of assistance to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s next : Legislation is unlikely to pass before July .
White House advisers are scheduled to meet this week to discuss their plans for the next coronavirus package , which is expected to focus on promoting a national return to work and normal life as quickly as possible .
Ideas that have been discussed include a continuation of enhanced unemployment benefits but at a lower level ; federal support for worker ’ s salaries ; tax breaks for Americans who take vacations domestically ; a payroll-tax holiday ; and a capital-gains tax @ @ @ @

Democrats in the House are pushing for another massive relief bill with more than $3 trillion in additional spending, but Republicans have called for a pause to give lawmakers a chance to evaluate the strength of the economy and the effectiveness of the money provided so far. And GOP leaders are increasingly expressing doubts about the need to provide another round of $1,200 stimulus payments.
Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) said Tuesday that the CARES Act was necessary and effective, but the situation has changed. “Most folks are very grateful for the help,” he said. “But I don’t think we should set up a situation where we’re doing a check month after month after month.”
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) said that another round of direct stimulus checks is “unlikely,” not least due to growing concerns about their cost. “I think it’s important for us to consider how we’re going to pay for all this and specifically how we’re going to deal with the structural deficit we have that adds a trillion to the debt every year. I hope that’s part of the next package,” he said.
Some Democrats in the Senate have also expressed doubts about sending out more stimulus checks, preferring instead to focus on employment and institutions.
“My concern is that it’s not focused in a way that is designed to help create or help sustain jobs, to deal with rental housing or education,” said Sen. Christopher Coons (D-DE). “My top priority is a robust round of assistance to state and local governments.”
What’s next: Legislation is unlikely to pass before July. White House advisers are scheduled to meet this week to discuss their plans for the next coronavirus package, which is expected to focus on promoting a national return to work and normal life as quickly as possible.
Ideas that have been discussed include a continuation of enhanced unemployment benefits but at a lower level; federal support for worker’s salaries; tax breaks for Americans who take vacations domestically; a payroll-tax holiday; and a capital-gains tax cut for investors.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-02--Private Equity Firms Getting More Than $1 Billion in Coronavirus Relief Funds

Medical-service businesses owned by deep-pocketed private equity firms including KKR , Apollo and Cerberus have received more than $ 1.5 billion in no-interest loans from federal programs designed to help cash-strapped health-care companies , according to an analysis by Bloomberg News .
Although major private equity investors have been shut out of many coronavirus relief programs , they have found what Bloomberg calls a “ back door ” at the Health and Human Services Department , which has approved at least $ 1.5 billion worth of loans , based on a review of more than 40,000 loans made public by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programs administered by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services that received additional funding through the CARES Act to help companies in the health-care sector survive the pandemic , but “ went instead to hospitals , clinics and treatment centers controlled by the richest investment firms as they seek to take advantage of an economic downturn caused by the pandemic to buy ailing businesses , ” Bloomberg said .
CMS Administrator Seema Verma said her agency doesn ’ t ask loan applicants about their ownership structure .
“ We don ’ t look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is are they Medicare-enrolled providers , ” Verma told Bloomberg .
Critics worry that the private equity firms will use the no-interest loans to buy up more health-care companies and load them up with debt , in accordance with their typical business model .
And no-interest loans aren ’ t the only way private equity is benefiting from coronavirus relief efforts , Bloomberg said .
HHS has also provided hundreds of millions of dollars in automatic grants to health-care companies that have cared for Medicare patients over the last two years , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the money never has to be paid back .

Medical-service businesses owned by deep-pocketed private equity firms including KKR, Apollo and Cerberus have received more than $1.5 billion in no-interest loans from federal programs designed to help cash-strapped health-care companies, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News.
Although major private equity investors have been shut out of many coronavirus relief programs, they have found what Bloomberg calls a “back door” at the Health and Human Services Department, which has approved at least $1.5 billion worth of loans, based on a review of more than 40,000 loans made public by HHS.
The money comes from two programs administered by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services that received additional funding through the CARES Act to help companies in the health-care sector survive the pandemic, but “went instead to hospitals, clinics and treatment centers controlled by the richest investment firms as they seek to take advantage of an economic downturn caused by the pandemic to buy ailing businesses,” Bloomberg said.
CMS Administrator Seema Verma said her agency doesn’t ask loan applicants about their ownership structure. “We don’t look into ownership, what we look into is are they Medicare-enrolled providers,” Verma told Bloomberg.
Critics worry that the private equity firms will use the no-interest loans to buy up more health-care companies and load them up with debt, in accordance with their typical business model.
And no-interest loans aren’t the only way private equity is benefiting from coronavirus relief efforts, Bloomberg said. HHS has also provided hundreds of millions of dollars in automatic grants to health-care companies that have cared for Medicare patients over the last two years, including some owned by private equity, and the money never has to be paid back.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-04--Senate Passes PPP Changes Providing More Flexibility

The Senate Wednesday evening passed a bill modifying the Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable coronavirus relief loans to small businesses .
The bill , which sailed through the House last week in a 417-1 vote , now goes to President Trump ’ s desk for his signature .
Among its provisions , the new Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act extends from eight weeks to 24 weeks the period that small businesses have to spend their emergency funds while still qualifying to have their loans forgiven .
It also provides more flexibility in how the loans can be used , lowering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on payroll from 75 % to 60 % .
See more details here .
An earlier snag : Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had objected to an earlier effort Wednesday to pass the bill by unanimous consent , but he reportedly agreed to the evening vote after getting a letter entered into the record clarifying that an extension of the loan program to the end of December would only lengthen the deadline for business owners to spend their funds , not the application deadline .
“ We do n't want to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of December , ” Johnson said , according to Roll Call .
“ Now there 's some dispute as to whether the language actually does that .
Sounds like the intent was not to do that , it was just to allow people to spend money through the end of December , which we have no problem with.
” Sens .
Marco Rubio ( R-FL ) and Susan Collins ( R-ME ) will still be pursuing technical fixes to the program .

The Senate Wednesday evening passed a bill modifying the Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable coronavirus relief loans to small businesses. The bill, which sailed through the House last week in a 417-1 vote, now goes to President Trump’s desk for his signature.
Among its provisions, the new Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act extends from eight weeks to 24 weeks the period that small businesses have to spend their emergency funds while still qualifying to have their loans forgiven. It also provides more flexibility in how the loans can be used, lowering the minimum percentage required to be spent on payroll from 75% to 60%. See more details here.
An earlier snag: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had objected to an earlier effort Wednesday to pass the bill by unanimous consent, but he reportedly agreed to the evening vote after getting a letter entered into the record clarifying that an extension of the loan program to the end of December would only lengthen the deadline for business owners to spend their funds, not the application deadline.
“We don't want to see this program automatically reauthorized until the end of December,” Johnson said, according to Roll Call. “Now there's some dispute as to whether the language actually does that. Sounds like the intent was not to do that, it was just to allow people to spend money through the end of December, which we have no problem with.”
Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Susan Collins (R-ME) will still be pursuing technical fixes to the program.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-04--GOP Rethinks Opposition to Unemployment Benefits

The $ 600 per week boost in unemployment benefits that Congress passed in March expires at the end of July , and Republicans have vowed not to renew them , saying they are too generous and encourage workers to stay at home .
But as the severity of the unemployment situation for millions of Americans becomes increasingly clear – and likely to linger through the election – some GOP lawmakers reportedly are having second thoughts about what to do with the program .
According to The Hill , a growing number of Republican senators are discussing an extension of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at a lower level .
A federally funded back-to-work bonus of $ 450 is also on the table , part of an effort to ensure that workers are encouraged to return to their jobs .
The recent protests over police violence and racism are also playing a role in changing minds among Republicans , who are worried about maintaining their control of the Senate .
“ I don ’ t think we can ignore the fact that this civil unrest is happening against a backdrop of 20-plus percent unemployment , ” said Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ form the additional aid takes , it ’ s becoming clear to Republicans that Congress will have to provide help to the unemployed for some time beyond July , stretching perhaps to the end of the year .
“ I ’ m very open-minded about how to supplement unemployment benefits , ” said Sen. Lindsey Graham ( R-SC ) , one of the most outspoken critics of the $ 600 unemployment payments .
The Senate announced Wednesday that it will hold a hearing next week on how to address unemployment benefits in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

The $600 per week boost in unemployment benefits that Congress passed in March expires at the end of July, and Republicans have vowed not to renew them, saying they are too generous and encourage workers to stay at home. But as the severity of the unemployment situation for millions of Americans becomes increasingly clear – and likely to linger through the election – some GOP lawmakers reportedly are having second thoughts about what to do with the program.
According to The Hill, a growing number of Republican senators are discussing an extension of the extra unemployment benefits past July, though at a lower level. A federally funded back-to-work bonus of $450 is also on the table, part of an effort to ensure that workers are encouraged to return to their jobs.
The recent protests over police violence and racism are also playing a role in changing minds among Republicans, who are worried about maintaining their control of the Senate. “I don’t think we can ignore the fact that this civil unrest is happening against a backdrop of 20-plus percent unemployment,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO).
Whatever form the additional aid takes, it’s becoming clear to Republicans that Congress will have to provide help to the unemployed for some time beyond July, stretching perhaps to the end of the year. “I’m very open-minded about how to supplement unemployment benefits,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of the most outspoken critics of the $600 unemployment payments.
The Senate announced Wednesday that it will hold a hearing next week on how to address unemployment benefits in the next and perhaps final coronavirus relief bill.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-04--Unemployment Claims Top 42 Million

Unemployment Claims Top 42 Million

About 1.9 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week , the Department of Labor announced Thursday , bringing the total for initial claims over the last 11 weeks to 42.6 million .
Continuing claims rose by 649,000 over the previous week , for a total of 21.5 million .
Adding independent contractors , the number of people receiving unemployment benefits comes to roughly 30 million .
The good news : Initial jobless claims for state benefits continue to fall .
Torsten Slok , chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities , said the job market appears to have bottomed out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hole now , '' adding that we `` have the worst behind us . ''
Earlier this week , Mark Zandi , chief economist at Moody ’ s Analytics , said he thinks the coronavirus recession is technically over , with growth resuming this month .
`` This Covid recession will go down as the shortest and arguably the most severe in history , '' Zandi told The Washington Post .
The bad news : The unemployment numbers are still shockingly high , and the economy is in bad shape by any measure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims in the millions are an indicator that the economic pain of the Covid-19 crisis is still acute , '' Daniel Zhao , senior economist at Glassdoor , told CNBC .
Recovery is expected to be slow and painful .
Economist Ed Yardeni said Thursday in a note to clients that he expects it to take more than two years to recover all of the lost jobs , with a return to the February 2020 employment peak not coming until October 2022 .
The even worse news : The official unemployment numbers are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ addition to the state unemployment filings , there were about 623,000 newly reported claims from independent contractors , who are eligible to receive federal aid temporarily under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program .
But at least half a million filings for pandemic relief payments have yet to show up in the official data , Bloomberg reported Thursday , due to lags in the system .
And the weekly unemployment reports tell us nothing about the people who may still be working but are earning far less than they were just a few months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Labor Department will release its employment numbers for May .
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones project 8.3 million job losses and an unemployment rate of 20.5 % .

About 1.9 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week, the Department of Labor announced Thursday, bringing the total for initial claims over the last 11 weeks to 42.6 million.
Continuing claims rose by 649,000 over the previous week, for a total of 21.5 million. Adding independent contractors, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits comes to roughly 30 million.
The good news: Initial jobless claims for state benefits continue to fall. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said the job market appears to have bottomed out and is "crawling out of the hole now," adding that we "have the worst behind us."
Earlier this week, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he thinks the coronavirus recession is technically over, with growth resuming this month. "This Covid recession will go down as the shortest and arguably the most severe in history," Zandi told The Washington Post.
The bad news: The unemployment numbers are still shockingly high, and the economy is in bad shape by any measure. "Even as states reopen, claims in the millions are an indicator that the economic pain of the Covid-19 crisis is still acute," Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, told CNBC.
Recovery is expected to be slow and painful. Economist Ed Yardeni said Thursday in a note to clients that he expects it to take more than two years to recover all of the lost jobs, with a return to the February 2020 employment peak not coming until October 2022.
The even worse news: The official unemployment numbers are almost certainly underestimating the damage.
In addition to the state unemployment filings, there were about 623,000 newly reported claims from independent contractors, who are eligible to receive federal aid temporarily under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. But at least half a million filings for pandemic relief payments have yet to show up in the official data, Bloomberg reported Thursday, due to lags in the system. And the weekly unemployment reports tell us nothing about the people who may still be working but are earning far less than they were just a few months ago.
Up next: On Friday the Labor Department will release its employment numbers for May. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones project 8.3 million job losses and an unemployment rate of 20.5%.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-05--Jobs Report Crushes Expectations, Unemployment Rate Falls to 13.3%

Smashing expectations , U.S. employment rose by 2.5 million in May , the Department of Labor announced Friday , with the unemployment rate falling to 13.3 % , down from 14.7 % in April .
Forecasters had expected the report to show millions of job losses and an unemployment rate near 20 % .
Instead , it delivered the best one-month jobs number since at least 1939 , while providing strong support for the view that the worst of the coronavirus recession is now behind us .
Although it ’ s hard to say just how large the effect is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are likely driven by the stimulus programs passed by Congress , especially the Paycheck Protection Program , which has incentivized small businesses – including many restaurants and bars , which gained 1.4 million jobs – to put employees back on the payroll .
“ The best interpretation I have for this right now is that when we had the April report , virtually none of the stimulus had gone out by the reference week , ” economist Ernie Tedeschi of Evercore ISI told The News York Times .
“ Now we ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I think part of the recovery is due to that.
” Here ’ s a roundup of details and comments on the jobs report few experts saw coming : The economy is reopening : “ These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) pandemic and efforts to contain it , ” the report said .
“ In May , employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality , construction , education and health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some key sectors are still in bad shape : While the leisure and hospitality sector led the pack with a gain of 1.2 million jobs in May , after losing 7.5 million jobs in April , and health care made a big comeback with 321,000 jobs ( led by dentists , who gained 244,000 jobs ) , other sectors are still contracting .
Government payrolls , which include public school teachers , shrank by 585,000 in May as state and local governments continued to struggle with plunging tax revenues and increased social spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air transport , transportation and warehousing , mining and logging , and information sectors .
Trump claims success : President Trump , who has pushed for an aggressive schedule to reopen the economy , took credit for the strong report .
“ Really Big Jobs Report .
Great going President Trump ( kidding but true ) !
” he wrote on Twitter .
At a hastily arranged press conference Friday morning , Trump said , `` We 're bringing our jobs back .
We 're gon na be back there .
I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there higher next year than ever before . ''
But the numbers may be understating the problem : There are still nearly 20 million people who are jobless , and employment is roughly 13 % below its level in February , before the pandemic struck .
Millions of workers on furlough were not included in the unemployment numbers ; had they been counted , the unemployment rate would have been over 16 % .
Adding in workers who have given up and left the labor force , and the unemployment rate could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job gains were not evenly distributed in the population .
While the unemployment rate for whites fell to 12.4 % , down from 14.2 % in April , the jobless rate for black workers rose slightly to 16.8 % .
The Asian unemployment rate also rose , from 14.5 % to 15 % .
The economy still has a long way to go : “ While the labor market recovery started a month or two earlier than expected , therefore suggesting a V-shaped trajectory in the early stages of the recovery , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shape of the recovery , ” researchers at Bank of America said in a note .
“ We continue to remain concerned about the health of the economy after the initial jump higher from reopening .
The path ahead is still likely to be bumpy given risks posed from the virus and many millions of displaced workers.
” Chris Rupkey , chief economist at Mitsubishi Financial Group , had a particularly pessimistic take on the road ahead , saying that “ all the workers who lost their paychecks will find it difficult to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these jobs are gone forever .
It took years for the economy to grow enough to find jobs for those unemployed in the last recession , and it will take years again this time to do the same .
”

Smashing expectations, U.S. employment rose by 2.5 million in May, the Department of Labor announced Friday, with the unemployment rate falling to 13.3%, down from 14.7% in April.
Forecasters had expected the report to show millions of job losses and an unemployment rate near 20%. Instead, it delivered the best one-month jobs number since at least 1939, while providing strong support for the view that the worst of the coronavirus recession is now behind us.
Although it’s hard to say just how large the effect is, economists say the surprisingly strong numbers are likely driven by the stimulus programs passed by Congress, especially the Paycheck Protection Program, which has incentivized small businesses – including many restaurants and bars, which gained 1.4 million jobs – to put employees back on the payroll. “The best interpretation I have for this right now is that when we had the April report, virtually none of the stimulus had gone out by the reference week,” economist Ernie Tedeschi of Evercore ISI told The News York Times. “Now we’ve had a full month of fiscal support. I think part of the recovery is due to that.”
Here’s a roundup of details and comments on the jobs report few experts saw coming:
The economy is reopening: “These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it,” the report said. “In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade.”
But some key sectors are still in bad shape: While the leisure and hospitality sector led the pack with a gain of 1.2 million jobs in May, after losing 7.5 million jobs in April, and health care made a big comeback with 321,000 jobs (led by dentists, who gained 244,000 jobs), other sectors are still contracting. Government payrolls, which include public school teachers, shrank by 585,000 in May as state and local governments continued to struggle with plunging tax revenues and increased social spending. And job losses continued in the air transport, transportation and warehousing, mining and logging, and information sectors.
Trump claims success: President Trump, who has pushed for an aggressive schedule to reopen the economy, took credit for the strong report. “Really Big Jobs Report. Great going President Trump (kidding but true)!” he wrote on Twitter. At a hastily arranged press conference Friday morning, Trump said, "We're bringing our jobs back. We're gonna be back there. I think we're actually going to be back there higher next year than ever before."
But the numbers may be understating the problem: There are still nearly 20 million people who are jobless, and employment is roughly 13% below its level in February, before the pandemic struck. Millions of workers on furlough were not included in the unemployment numbers; had they been counted, the unemployment rate would have been over 16%. Adding in workers who have given up and left the labor force, and the unemployment rate could be closer to 20%.
And the job gains were not evenly distributed in the population. While the unemployment rate for whites fell to 12.4%, down from 14.2% in April, the jobless rate for black workers rose slightly to 16.8%. The Asian unemployment rate also rose, from 14.5% to 15%.
The economy still has a long way to go: “While the labor market recovery started a month or two earlier than expected, therefore suggesting a V-shaped trajectory in the early stages of the recovery, it doesn't tell us about the ultimate shape of the recovery,” researchers at Bank of America said in a note. “We continue to remain concerned about the health of the economy after the initial jump higher from reopening. The path ahead is still likely to be bumpy given risks posed from the virus and many millions of displaced workers.”
Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Mitsubishi Financial Group, had a particularly pessimistic take on the road ahead, saying that “all the workers who lost their paychecks will find it difficult to regain their place in society as many of these jobs are gone forever. It took years for the economy to grow enough to find jobs for those unemployed in the last recession, and it will take years again this time to do the same.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-05--Trump Touts ‘Rocket Ship’ Recovery. Does That Mean Next Stimulus Is Dead?

Friday ’ s jobs report was a complete stunner .
The economy added 2.5 million jobs in May , the Labor Department announced , smashing expectations of millions more job losses , and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3 % , down from 14.7 % in April .
President Trump hailed the numbers , touting them as an indication of a strong economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic , a salve that would heal the racial tensions on display across the country over the last week and “ affirmation of all the work we ’ ve been doing , really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Today is probably , if you think of it , the greatest comeback in American history , ” Trump said at a hastily arranged news conference in the White House Rose Garden .
Trump celebrates ‘ a very big day for our country ’ : “ This is better than a V , ” Trump said about widespread prognostications about whether the economic recovery would be shaped like a V , a U , a W or even a Nike swoosh .
“ This is a rocket ship .
This is far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spoke for nearly an hour , and his rambling remarks covered a lot of territory — a whole lot — but were mostly a victory lap centered around the jobs numbers and how they could fix what seems broken in the country , including the protests sparked by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody .
“ Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying , ‘ This is a great thing that ’ s happening for our country.
’ This is a great day for him .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Trump said .
What does this mean for the next coronavirus relief bill ?
Trump said Friday that he ’ ll still pursue additional stimulus money , “ despite the numbers and how good they are.
” He also said he would push for a payroll tax cut , a proposal that many lawmakers and economists have greeted with skepticism , saying it ’ s unlikely to deliver help to those who need it most .
Trump said that a payroll tax cut would be a “ tremendous incentive ” for businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d seek targeted aid for restaurants and parts of the entertainment industry .
Still , the stronger-than-expected jobs numbers will almost certainly diminish the chances for another large coronavirus relief bill .
`` This definitively kills any chance of trillions of new spending , '' one Senate Republican aide said , according to The Washington Post ’ s Jeff Stein , who also reported that White House economic advisers Art Laffer and Stephen Moore said that the jobs report shows Congress can hold off on new stimulus spending .
“ The sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the report , ” Moore told the Post .
Even before Friday ’ s jobs report , Post reported that the president was reluctant to pursue a new stimulus package , citing White House officials and Trump advisers .
Conservatives have reportedly urged Trump to hold off on providing more money to states hit by the pandemic and focus instead on tax breaks for businesses as well as cutting regulations and the trade war with China , and the president is in no mood to work with Democrats who have criticized him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mass protests .
Trump ’ s opposition to additional stimulus “ is privately seen as soft and pliable , ” the Post ’ s Robert Costa and Ashley Parker write , and it could depend largely on the outlook for his reelection campaign against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden .
“ He could go from saying ‘ I ’ ll do nothing more ’ to saying ‘ I ’ ll do $ 1 trillion more ’ in a second if he thinks it helps him with beating Biden , ” an unnamed Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about a ‘ nightmare scenario ’ : Some economists warn that celebrating one jobs report as evidence of an economic rebound could be premature — and could ultimately undermine a recovery if it reduces further stimulus efforts .
“ This is how one good jobs report can turn into a nightmare scenario , ” Ernie Tedeschi , a Treasury economist during the Obama administration now at Evercore ISI , tweeted .
Months of extraordinarily strong job gains will be needed to get near the low unemployment levels the U.S. saw at the beginning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute , tweeted that the 13.3 % unemployment rate is “ an economic and human disaster , ” and that another coronavirus bill remains necessary .
“ Workers , families , and small businesses need Phase 4 , ” he said .
“ There ’ s no doubt about the need.
” Economists also point out that the unemployment numbers may reflect the massive fiscal support Congress has provided so far , particularly the Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable loans to small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gain in the restaurant and retail sectors .
“ Many economists expected the PPP would be a big factor in June , but it turns out the impact was sizable in May , ” the Post ’ s Heather Long explains .
“ Most economists look at these numbers and urge Congress and the White House to keep the PPP and other aid going .
Most of the government relief money is slated to dry up by the end of July .
”

Friday’s jobs report was a complete stunner. The economy added 2.5 million jobs in May, the Labor Department announced, smashing expectations of millions more job losses, and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%, down from 14.7% in April.
President Trump hailed the numbers, touting them as an indication of a strong economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic, a salve that would heal the racial tensions on display across the country over the last week and “affirmation of all the work we’ve been doing, really for three and a half years.”
“Today is probably, if you think of it, the greatest comeback in American history,” Trump said at a hastily arranged news conference in the White House Rose Garden.
Trump celebrates ‘a very big day for our country’: “This is better than a V,” Trump said about widespread prognostications about whether the economic recovery would be shaped like a V, a U, a W or even a Nike swoosh. “This is a rocket ship. This is far better than a V.”
The president spoke for nearly an hour, and his rambling remarks covered a lot of territory — a whole lot — but were mostly a victory lap centered around the jobs numbers and how they could fix what seems broken in the country, including the protests sparked by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody. “Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying, ‘This is a great thing that’s happening for our country.’ This is a great day for him. It’s a great day for everybody,” Trump said.
What does this mean for the next coronavirus relief bill? Trump said Friday that he’ll still pursue additional stimulus money, “despite the numbers and how good they are.” He also said he would push for a payroll tax cut, a proposal that many lawmakers and economists have greeted with skepticism, saying it’s unlikely to deliver help to those who need it most. Trump said that a payroll tax cut would be a “tremendous incentive” for businesses and workers. And he said he’d seek targeted aid for restaurants and parts of the entertainment industry.
Still, the stronger-than-expected jobs numbers will almost certainly diminish the chances for another large coronavirus relief bill. "This definitively kills any chance of trillions of new spending," one Senate Republican aide said, according to The Washington Post’s Jeff Stein, who also reported that White House economic advisers Art Laffer and Stephen Moore said that the jobs report shows Congress can hold off on new stimulus spending. “The sense of urgent crisis is very greatly dissipated by the report,” Moore told the Post.
Even before Friday’s jobs report, Post reported that the president was reluctant to pursue a new stimulus package, citing White House officials and Trump advisers. Conservatives have reportedly urged Trump to hold off on providing more money to states hit by the pandemic and focus instead on tax breaks for businesses as well as cutting regulations and the trade war with China, and the president is in no mood to work with Democrats who have criticized him for his responses to the pandemic and mass protests.
Trump’s opposition to additional stimulus “is privately seen as soft and pliable,” the Post’s Robert Costa and Ashley Parker write, and it could depend largely on the outlook for his reelection campaign against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
“He could go from saying ‘I’ll do nothing more’ to saying ‘I’ll do $1 trillion more’ in a second if he thinks it helps him with beating Biden,” an unnamed Trump adviser told the Post.
Economists worry about a ‘nightmare scenario’: Some economists warn that celebrating one jobs report as evidence of an economic rebound could be premature — and could ultimately undermine a recovery if it reduces further stimulus efforts. “This is how one good jobs report can turn into a nightmare scenario,” Ernie Tedeschi, a Treasury economist during the Obama administration now at Evercore ISI, tweeted.
Months of extraordinarily strong job gains will be needed to get near the low unemployment levels the U.S. saw at the beginning of the year. Michael R. Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, tweeted that the 13.3% unemployment rate is “an economic and human disaster,” and that another coronavirus bill remains necessary. “Workers, families, and small businesses need Phase 4,” he said. “There’s no doubt about the need.”
Economists also point out that the unemployment numbers may reflect the massive fiscal support Congress has provided so far, particularly the Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable loans to small businesses, which likely helped fuel strong gain in the restaurant and retail sectors. “Many economists expected the PPP would be a big factor in June, but it turns out the impact was sizable in May,” the Post’s Heather Long explains. “Most economists look at these numbers and urge Congress and the White House to keep the PPP and other aid going. Most of the government relief money is slated to dry up by the end of July.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-04--Does the US Spend Too Much on Police?

Does the US Spend Too Much on Police?

The Washington Post ’ s Christopher Ingraham writes that , in the wake of protests over George Floyd ’ s death , tensions over funding differences for police departments and social services lie at the heart of many calls for police reform .
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer , for example , is calling for a $ 1.1 billion cut in NYPD spending over the next four years , with the money going “ toward vulnerable communities most impacted by police violence and structural racism.
” Similarly , the Los Angeles Police Department budget could be cut by $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ color , the L.A. Times reports .
To illustrate the nationwide divergence between funding for law and order and that for cash welfare , Ingraham highlights a statistic , detailed in the chart below , pulled from the work of liberal Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman : The United States spends more than twice as much on police , prisons and the courts as it does on food stamps , Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and supplemental Social Security .
“ Up until about 1980 , American governments spent roughly the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ welfare : a little over 1 percent of total national income for each .
But those trend lines have steadily diverged ever since : Welfare spending has been on a long , uneven decline , while law and order spending ballooned almost unabated until about 2010 , when it amounted to nearly 2.5 percent of national income .
Since then , law and order spending has fallen to a hair under 2 percent , while welfare spending stands at about 0.8 percent of national income .
… “ Taken together , the two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ priorities .
We funneled money away from poverty prevention to beef up our response to one of poverty ’ s biggest consequences : crime .
We now treat the symptoms rather than the underlying disease.
” The protests and debates now roiling the nation might change that balance , as they ’ ll likely color the budget choices made by cities , states and the federal government .
Read the full story at The Washington Post .

The Washington Post’s Christopher Ingraham writes that, in the wake of protests over George Floyd’s death, tensions over funding differences for police departments and social services lie at the heart of many calls for police reform.
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, for example, is calling for a $1.1 billion cut in NYPD spending over the next four years, with the money going “toward vulnerable communities most impacted by police violence and structural racism.” Similarly, the Los Angeles Police Department budget could be cut by $150 million to reinvest in communities of color, the L.A. Times reports.
To illustrate the nationwide divergence between funding for law and order and that for cash welfare, Ingraham highlights a statistic, detailed in the chart below, pulled from the work of liberal Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman: The United States spends more than twice as much on police, prisons and the courts as it does on food stamps, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and supplemental Social Security.
That wasn’t always case, Ingraham explains:
“Up until about 1980, American governments spent roughly the same amount on criminal justice and cash welfare: a little over 1 percent of total national income for each. But those trend lines have steadily diverged ever since: Welfare spending has been on a long, uneven decline, while law and order spending ballooned almost unabated until about 2010, when it amounted to nearly 2.5 percent of national income. Since then, law and order spending has fallen to a hair under 2 percent, while welfare spending stands at about 0.8 percent of national income. …
“Taken together, the two lines trace a dramatic shift in national priorities. We funneled money away from poverty prevention to beef up our response to one of poverty’s biggest consequences: crime. We now treat the symptoms rather than the underlying disease.”
The protests and debates now roiling the nation might change that balance, as they’ll likely color the budget choices made by cities, states and the federal government.
Read the full story at The Washington Post.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-02--Amid Protests and Pandemic, Congress Faces a $1 Trillion Decicion

The nation is being rocked by protests , grappling with endemic racial injustice and still struggling to cope with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its fallout .
As disturbingly turbulent as the situation is , The Washington Post ’ s Jeff Stein and Erica Werner warn that the toxic stew of troubles now boiling over in city after city could be further catalyzed by a looming “ fiscal cliff ” that threatens to abruptly withdraw $ 1 trillion in emergency economic support provided by Congress to millions of Americans — or by the political battles surrounding the costly choices lawmakers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the protests — and the political clashes they have sparked between the White House and Congress — could make it harder to avoid the fiscal cliff and address the difficult decisions it will force : “ Policymakers must decide in the coming weeks whether to extend emergency unemployment benefits for more than 25 million Americans .
They face growing calls to provide billions of dollars in assistance for states and cities , even as President Trump increasingly feuds with governors and mayors .
If lawmakers do not act , about $ 1 trillion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy will disappear in the next quarter.
” Stein and Werner report that the federal government has pumped about $ 1.2 trillion into the economy since April , but that could fall to about $ 200 billion over the third quarter of the year , according to Michael Feroli , chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan .
“ The expiring aid risks creating a ‘ fiscal cliff ’ that , if not addressed by lawmakers , could arrest or reverse a rebound , economists say .
White House officials and several Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but they are at odds over how to proceed , and the path forward is unclear , ” Stein and Werner write .
Calls for more congressional action : “ The violence , the anxiety that is taking place — we are naive if we think that it ’ s separable from the economic calamity we are in , ” Darrick Hamilton , an economist and the executive director of the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at Ohio State University , tells the Post .
“ Congress needs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — and at the very least not make it worse.
” Business groups also say Congress must act .
“ It ’ s important that Congress acted to support families and businesses as the economy came to a halt , ” Neil Bradley , executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce , says .
“ They can ’ t now leave it where they found it .
They had to do step 1 , that was critically important .
They now need to do step 2 because that ’ s equally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leave it where the bottom is , that ’ s not acceptable to anyone.
” Read the full story at The Washington Post .

The nation is being rocked by protests, grappling with endemic racial injustice and still struggling to cope with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its fallout. As disturbingly turbulent as the situation is, The Washington Post’s Jeff Stein and Erica Werner warn that the toxic stew of troubles now boiling over in city after city could be further catalyzed by a looming “fiscal cliff” that threatens to abruptly withdraw $1 trillion in emergency economic support provided by Congress to millions of Americans — or by the political battles surrounding the costly choices lawmakers face.
At the very least, the protests — and the political clashes they have sparked between the White House and Congress — could make it harder to avoid the fiscal cliff and address the difficult decisions it will force:
“Policymakers must decide in the coming weeks whether to extend emergency unemployment benefits for more than 25 million Americans. They face growing calls to provide billions of dollars in assistance for states and cities, even as President Trump increasingly feuds with governors and mayors. If lawmakers do not act, about $1 trillion in emergency federal aid used to stabilize the economy will disappear in the next quarter.”
Stein and Werner report that the federal government has pumped about $1.2 trillion into the economy since April, but that could fall to about $200 billion over the third quarter of the year, according to Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan. “The expiring aid risks creating a ‘fiscal cliff’ that, if not addressed by lawmakers, could arrest or reverse a rebound, economists say. White House officials and several Republicans have resisted pressure to approve more spending, but they are at odds over how to proceed, and the path forward is unclear,” Stein and Werner write.
Calls for more congressional action: “The violence, the anxiety that is taking place — we are naive if we think that it’s separable from the economic calamity we are in,” Darrick Hamilton, an economist and the executive director of the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at Ohio State University, tells the Post. “Congress needs to do something to mitigate this pain — and at the very least not make it worse.”
Business groups also say Congress must act. “It’s important that Congress acted to support families and businesses as the economy came to a halt,” Neil Bradley, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, says. “They can’t now leave it where they found it. They had to do step 1, that was critically important. They now need to do step 2 because that’s equally as important ... they can’t leave it where the bottom is, that’s not acceptable to anyone.”
Read the full story at The Washington Post.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-08--Chart of the Day: Billions for Small Business

President Trump on Friday signed into law the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act , which eases the regulations for small businesses @ @ @ @ @ the Paycheck Protection Program .
Although the program ran through its first round of funding @ @ @ @ @ a matter of days back in April ( show in blue in the chart below @ @ @ @ @ of $ 310 billion has yet to be exhausted ( in orange ) , with @ @ @ @ @ in loans still available .

President Trump on Friday signed into law the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act, which eases the regulations for small businesses that receive forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program. Although the program ran through its first round of funding of $349 billion in a matter of days back in April (show in blue in the chart below), the second round of $310 billion has yet to be exhausted (in orange), with more than $100 billion in loans still available.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-08--It’s Official: The Recession Began in March

The National Bureau of Economic Research announced Monday that the U.S. economy entered a recession in March , ending the nation ’ s longest expansion on record .
Here ’ s the summary from the report by the Business Cycle Dating Committee at NBER : “ The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020 .
The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession .
The expansion lasted 128 months , the longest in the history of U.S. business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001.
” The announcement of the recession came relatively soon after its onset .
Usually , the committee of economists waits to see how economic conditions develop over a longer period of time before determining that a recession has begun , but the current slowdown is clearly exceptional .
The committee said “ it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production , and its broad reach across the entire economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a recession , even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions .
”

The National Bureau of Economic Research announced Monday that the U.S. economy entered a recession in March, ending the nation’s longest expansion on record. Here’s the summary from the report by the Business Cycle Dating Committee at NBER:
“The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001.”
The announcement of the recession came relatively soon after its onset. Usually, the committee of economists waits to see how economic conditions develop over a longer period of time before determining that a recession has begun, but the current slowdown is clearly exceptional. The committee said “it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-08--Trump and Biden Agree: Don’t Defund the Police

As “ defund the police ” has become a rallying cry for protestors , with activists and some politicians looking to build on a wave of support for the movement , President Trump has in recent days rejected the idea — and tried to turn it to his political advantage as he seeks to portray himself as the candidate of “ LAW & ORDER !
” in his reelection campaign against former Vice President Joe Biden .
`` There wo n't be defunding , there wo n't be dismantling of our police and there is not going to be any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been letting us live in peace , and we want to make sure we don ’ t have any bad actors in there , '' Trump said Monday afternoon at a White House event with law enforcement officers .
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters earlier in the day that `` the president is appalled by the defund the police movement , '' including vows from the mayors of New York and Los Angeles to cut police budgets and reallocate the money to social services .
In Minneapolis , where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ custody sparked massive nationwide protests , most of the city council has pledged to 'begin the process of ending ' the police department .
On Sunday , Trump tweeted : `` Sleepy Joe Biden and the Radical Left Democrats want to 'DEFUND THE POLICE ' .
I want great and well paid LAW ENFORCEMENT .
I want LAW & ORDER ! ''
Biden ’ s campaign said Monday he also opposes calls to defund the police .
“ As his criminal justice proposal made clear months ago , Vice President Biden does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Biden spokesman Andrew Bates told reporters Monday .
`` Biden supports the urgent need for reform — including funding for public schools , summer programs , and mental health and substance abuse treatment separate from funding for policing — so that officers can focus on the job of policing . ''
The Trump campaign attacked Biden for not commenting on the matter himself .
“ As the protesters like to say , silence is agreement , ” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said on a conference call with reporters .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defunding the police.
” The bottom line : Congressional Democrats unveiled broad legislation to reform police departments , but the party has stopped well short of embracing calls for defunding .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday that those decisions fall to local governments .

As “defund the police” has become a rallying cry for protestors, with activists and some politicians looking to build on a wave of support for the movement, President Trump has in recent days rejected the idea — and tried to turn it to his political advantage as he seeks to portray himself as the candidate of “LAW & ORDER!” in his reelection campaign against former Vice President Joe Biden.
"There won't be defunding, there won't be dismantling of our police and there is not going to be any disbanding of our police. Our police have been letting us live in peace, and we want to make sure we don’t have any bad actors in there," Trump said Monday afternoon at a White House event with law enforcement officers.
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters earlier in the day that "the president is appalled by the defund the police movement," including vows from the mayors of New York and Los Angeles to cut police budgets and reallocate the money to social services. In Minneapolis, where the killing of George Floyd in police custody sparked massive nationwide protests, most of the city council has pledged to 'begin the process of ending' the police department.
On Sunday, Trump tweeted: "Sleepy Joe Biden and the Radical Left Democrats want to 'DEFUND THE POLICE'. I want great and well paid LAW ENFORCEMENT. I want LAW & ORDER!"
Biden’s campaign said Monday he also opposes calls to defund the police. “As his criminal justice proposal made clear months ago, Vice President Biden does not believe that police should be defunded,” Biden spokesman Andrew Bates told reporters Monday. "Biden supports the urgent need for reform — including funding for public schools, summer programs, and mental health and substance abuse treatment separate from funding for policing — so that officers can focus on the job of policing."
The Trump campaign attacked Biden for not commenting on the matter himself. “As the protesters like to say, silence is agreement,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said on a conference call with reporters. “By his silence Joe Biden is endorsing defunding the police.”
The bottom line: Congressional Democrats unveiled broad legislation to reform police departments, but the party has stopped well short of embracing calls for defunding. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday that those decisions fall to local governments.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-08--May Deficit Falls From April Record, Still Second Highest Ever

The Congressional Budget Office said the federal budget deficit was $ 424 billion in May , well below the $ @ @ @ @ @ – but still the second-highest monthly shortfall in history .
The CBO also said the @ @ @ @ @ months of the fiscal year came to $ 1.9 trillion , roughly $ 1.2 trillion @ @ @ @ @ the first eight months of fiscal year 2019 .
Revenues in May were down about @ @ @ @ @ year before , due in large part to a sharp decline in individual income and @ @ @ @ @ on the other hand , was up 53 % compared to last year , once @ @ @ @ @ account .
The most notable changes were clearly driven by the pandemic , with outlays @ @ @ @ @ $ 2 billion in May 2019 to $ 93 billion in May 2020 .
And @ @ @ @ @ Administration rose from $ 98 million to $ 35 billion , driven by relief efforts @ @ @ @ @ by the coronavirus shutdowns .

The Congressional Budget Office said the federal budget deficit was $424 billion in May, well below the $738 billion recorded in April – but still the second-highest monthly shortfall in history. The CBO also said the deficit for the first eight months of the fiscal year came to $1.9 trillion, roughly $1.2 trillion more than the deficit in the first eight months of fiscal year 2019.
Revenues in May were down about 25% compared to the year before, due in large part to a sharp decline in individual income and payroll taxes. Spending, on the other hand, was up 53% compared to last year, once calendar discrepancies were taken into account.
The most notable changes were clearly driven by the pandemic, with outlays for unemployment compensation rising from $2 billion in May 2019 to $93 billion in May 2020. And outlays by the Small Business Administration rose from $98 million to $35 billion, driven by relief efforts for small business owners affected by the coronavirus shutdowns.


thefiscaltimes--2020-06-10--Budget Deficit Soars to $1.9 Trillion After Coronavirus Relief Spending

The federal budget deficit grew to $ 1.88 trillion in the first eight months of the 2020 fiscal year , the Treasury Department announced Wednesday .
Nearly twice the deficit recorded in all of 2019 , the gap between revenues and outlays was driven largely by the more than $ 3 trillion Congress has appropriated to help businesses and individuals struggling amid the coronavirus epidemic .
And the deficit is likely even larger , Treasury officials said , since the numbers don ’ t include the more than $ 600 billion lawmakers have provided for small business loans , many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that won ’ t be paid back .
Despite the enormous increase in the deficit , most lawmakers and economists across the political spectrum agree that the additional spending on relief measures has been necessary and unavoidable , given the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic .
“ They would have thought you were pretty crazy if you were yelling about the deficit in 1943 .
It ’ s a comparable situation now , '' Dean Baker , co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research , told The Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to keep people more or less whole .
There is not much of an issue here.
” Still , White House economic advisers have started to express concerns about the issue .
And at least one deficit hawk has criticized the lack of budgetary discipline in the years running up the coronavirus crisis that made the current situation worse .
“ If policymakers had spent the past five years addressing the debt rather than passing massive tax cuts and spending hikes , we could have offered more economic support and still had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget .
One thing that there ’ s little doubt about : there ’ s a lot more deficit spending to come .
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deficit will hit roughly $ 3.7 trillion in the current fiscal year .

The federal budget deficit grew to $1.88 trillion in the first eight months of the 2020 fiscal year, the Treasury Department announced Wednesday.
Nearly twice the deficit recorded in all of 2019, the gap between revenues and outlays was driven largely by the more than $3 trillion Congress has appropriated to help businesses and individuals struggling amid the coronavirus epidemic. And the deficit is likely even larger, Treasury officials said, since the numbers don’t include the more than $600 billion lawmakers have provided for small business loans, many of which will be converted to grants that won’t be paid back.
Despite the enormous increase in the deficit, most lawmakers and economists across the political spectrum agree that the additional spending on relief measures has been necessary and unavoidable, given the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic. “They would have thought you were pretty crazy if you were yelling about the deficit in 1943. It’s a comparable situation now," Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told The Washington Post. "You have to spend enough to keep people more or less whole. There is not much of an issue here.”
Still, White House economic advisers have started to express concerns about the issue. And at least one deficit hawk has criticized the lack of budgetary discipline in the years running up the coronavirus crisis that made the current situation worse. “If policymakers had spent the past five years addressing the debt rather than passing massive tax cuts and spending hikes, we could have offered more economic support and still had lower deficits,” said Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
One thing that there’s little doubt about: there’s a lot more deficit spending to come. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deficit will hit roughly $3.7 trillion in the current fiscal year.