thefiscaltimes--2020-10-30--The 10 Wonks Most Likely to Influence Joe Biden’s Economic Policy

A Biden administration is likely to see a split between “ legacy elements of the Democratic Party and a reformist Left , ” political-risk advisory firm Baron Public Affairs says in a new report that seeks to analyze which outside experts and organizations are likely to shape the Democratic candidate ’ s economic policy .
“ The 10 influencers were chosen through an analysis of the writings and remarks of 33 advisers , campaign officials , and platform committee members surrounding Biden , including California Senator Kamala Harris , his running mate , ” Bloomberg Businessweek ’ s Peter Coy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the thinkers whom those people most often cited.
” Michael Linden , executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative , which works with “ progressive movement leaders and activists on the front lines of progressive causes.
” Jason Furman , who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama and is now a professor at Harvard University 's John F. Kennedy School of Government and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics .
Jared Bernstein , a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 2011 .
Heather Boushey , co-founder of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth .
Baron notes that The New York Times described her as “ at the forefront of a generation of economists rethinking their discipline.
” Heidi Shierholz , senior economist and director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute .
Gene Sperling , who was director of the National Economic Council under both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama .
Ernie Tedeschi , a former Treasury Department economist who is now managing director and policy economist at research firm Evercore ISI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan and the Peterson Institute for International Economics .
Martha Gimbel , senior manager for economic research at Schmidt Futures , an organization founded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt dedicated to advancing science .
Matt Stoller , director of research at the American Economic Liberties Project .

A Biden administration is likely to see a split between “legacy elements of the Democratic Party and a reformist Left,” political-risk advisory firm Baron Public Affairs says in a new report that seeks to analyze which outside experts and organizations are likely to shape the Democratic candidate’s economic policy.
“The 10 influencers were chosen through an analysis of the writings and remarks of 33 advisers, campaign officials, and platform committee members surrounding Biden, including California Senator Kamala Harris, his running mate,” Bloomberg Businessweek’s Peter Coy reports. “That produced a list of the thinkers whom those people most often cited.”
The list includes:
Michael Linden, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, which works with “progressive movement leaders and activists on the front lines of progressive causes.”
Jason Furman, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama and is now a professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who was an economic adviser to Biden from 2009 to 2011.
Heather Boushey, co-founder of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Baron notes that The New York Times described her as “at the forefront of a generation of economists rethinking their discipline.”
Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute.
Gene Sperling, who was director of the National Economic Council under both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
Ernie Tedeschi, a former Treasury Department economist who is now managing director and policy economist at research firm Evercore ISI.
Justin Wolfers of the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Martha Gimbel, senior manager for economic research at Schmidt Futures, an organization founded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt dedicated to advancing science.
Matt Stoller, director of research at the American Economic Liberties Project.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-30--Government Spending Still Providing Major Boost for Economy: Report

Fiscal policies continued to have a powerful effect on the economy in the third quarter , boosting growth by 5.4 percentage points on an annualized basis , according to the latest Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure , released Friday .
While the effects of government spending and tax policies were more pronounced in the second quarter , increasing growth by 14 points , the results for the third quarter were still exceptional , the second highest reading on the measure since 1973 .
“ Taxes , subsidies , and transfer programs account for the largest component of the increase in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Brookings ’ Kadija Yilla and Louise Sheiner said Friday .
“ This category captures the boosts to consumption from the CARES Act ’ s payments to households and expanded unemployment benefits , as well as from the automatic stabilizers—the reduction in taxes and increases in unemployment and SNAP benefits that occur automatically when an economy falls into recession.
” Looking ahead , the analysts say that if lawmakers fail to pass another round of relief and stimulus , the effects of fiscal policy will reverse .
“ Without any additional stimulus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become a drag on economic growth in coming quarters , ” they wrote .

Fiscal policies continued to have a powerful effect on the economy in the third quarter, boosting growth by 5.4 percentage points on an annualized basis, according to the latest Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure, released Friday.
While the effects of government spending and tax policies were more pronounced in the second quarter, increasing growth by 14 points, the results for the third quarter were still exceptional, the second highest reading on the measure since 1973.
“Taxes, subsidies, and transfer programs account for the largest component of the increase in the FIM over the past two quarters,” Brookings’ Kadija Yilla and Louise Sheiner said Friday. “This category captures the boosts to consumption from the CARES Act’s payments to households and expanded unemployment benefits, as well as from the automatic stabilizers—the reduction in taxes and increases in unemployment and SNAP benefits that occur automatically when an economy falls into recession.”
Looking ahead, the analysts say that if lawmakers fail to pass another round of relief and stimulus, the effects of fiscal policy will reverse. “Without any additional stimulus, we project that fiscal policy will become a drag on economic growth in coming quarters,” they wrote.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-30--Coronavirus Pandemic Sets New Record

Coronavirus Pandemic Sets New Record

The United States keeps setting troubling Covid-19 records .
The number of daily cases hit a new high of 88,521 on Thursday , up nearly 83 % over the last month , and the weekly case count rose to 536,131 , according to data from Johns Hopkins University .
On Friday , the nation surpassed 9 million total cases — just two weeks after it reached 8 million .
“ It ’ s not just a few areas driving the surge , as was the case early on , ” The New York Times reports .
“ Half of U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past month .
Almost a third saw a record in the past week.
” Forty-three states have reportedly seen an increase in cases compared to last week , and nine states reported single-day records for new cases on Thursday .
Bloomberg News reports that 14 states recorded all-time highs in cases this week .
Death toll projected to surge : “ The recent surge in cases has not yet brought a similar surge in reported deaths , which can lag cases by up to several weeks .
But already deaths are increasing in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Times says .
Another 971 people died of the disease on Thursday , even as Donald Trump Jr. told Fox News that the number of Americans dying from Covid-19 amounts to “ almost nothing.
” And The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine projects that it ’ s likely that some 2,250 Americans will be dying daily by the middle of January .
The death toll could climb from more than 229,000 as of Friday to about 400,000 by February 1 .
“ If states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-imposing mandates , cumulative deaths could reach 514,000 by the same date , ” IHME said in its latest report .
On the other hand , increasing mask use to the level seen in Singapore could prevent 62,000 deaths by February , IMHE said .

The United States keeps setting troubling Covid-19 records. The number of daily cases hit a new high of 88,521 on Thursday, up nearly 83% over the last month, and the weekly case count rose to 536,131, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
On Friday, the nation surpassed 9 million total cases — just two weeks after it reached 8 million.
“It’s not just a few areas driving the surge, as was the case early on,” The New York Times reports. “Half of U.S. counties saw new cases peak during the past month. Almost a third saw a record in the past week.”
Forty-three states have reportedly seen an increase in cases compared to last week, and nine states reported single-day records for new cases on Thursday. Bloomberg News reports that 14 states recorded all-time highs in cases this week.
Death toll projected to surge: “The recent surge in cases has not yet brought a similar surge in reported deaths, which can lag cases by up to several weeks. But already deaths are increasing in about half of states,” the Times says.
Another 971 people died of the disease on Thursday, even as Donald Trump Jr. told Fox News that the number of Americans dying from Covid-19 amounts to “almost nothing.” And The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine projects that it’s likely that some 2,250 Americans will be dying daily by the middle of January.
The death toll could climb from more than 229,000 as of Friday to about 400,000 by February 1. “If states do not react to rising numbers by re-imposing mandates, cumulative deaths could reach 514,000 by the same date,” IHME said in its latest report. On the other hand, increasing mask use to the level seen in Singapore could prevent 62,000 deaths by February, IMHE said.
So wear a mask.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-28--What Trump and Biden Would Mean for Social Security

After years of warnings about the financial challenges facing Social Security , the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects mean that the time to get serious about ensuring that full benefits keep flowing is now , writes Tara Siegel Bernard in The New York Times : “ If nothing is done to shore up the program , all benefit checks would need to be cut by roughly one-quarter in perhaps 11 years — or , if the recession is protracted and severe , maybe even sooner.
” Siegel Bernard notes that President Trump has talked about terminating the payroll tax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ program funded through the general budget , though the White House says that he only meant he wants to forgive payroll taxes deferred under an executive action he announced in August .
Experts warn that , while eliminating the payroll tax is unlikely , any such change would represent a monumental shift that could undermine Social Security .
“ We have a very crowded budget as it is , ” Shai Akabas , economic policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center , tells the Times .
“ And having Social Security in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at risk in the future.
” Joe Biden , meanwhile , has proposed expanding both the payroll tax and benefits .
The 12.4 % tax , split between employers and employees , currently applies to the first $ 137,700 in earnings .
Biden would have it also apply to earnings above $ 400,000 a year — and , as Siegel Bernard notes , because the $ 137,700 cap is set to rise with inflation , the tax would eventually apply to all income up to $ 400,000 .
“ What is commendable about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually has one , taking the financial challenges facing Social Security seriously , ” Richard Johnson , director of the program on retirement policy at Urban Institute , a nonprofit think tank , told MarketWatch recently .
An analysis published this month by Johnson and his colleagues at the Urban Institute found that Biden ’ s proposals would close about a quarter of Social Security ’ s long-term funding shortfall and add about five years to the expected life of the trust funds .
The analysis also projected that Biden ’ s proposals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Social Security beneficiaries by more than half over the coming decades .
Critics note that Biden ’ s proposals don ’ t factor in the impact of the pandemic — and don ’ t do much to solve Social Security ’ s long-term problems .
“ Social Security would become insolvent in 2040 instead of 2035 , ” Andrew Biggs of the American Enterprise Institute wrote in The Wall Street Journal earlier this month .
“ Further tax increases would surely be demanded down the road.
” Akabas of the Bipartisan Policy Center @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now to avoid more painful changes — bigger tax increases or cuts — down the line .
“ The longer we wait to fix the problem , ” he said , “ the fewer people who can play a role in the solution.
” Read more at The New York Times , MarketWatch or the Urban Institute .

After years of warnings about the financial challenges facing Social Security, the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects mean that the time to get serious about ensuring that full benefits keep flowing is now, writes Tara Siegel Bernard in The New York Times: “If nothing is done to shore up the program, all benefit checks would need to be cut by roughly one-quarter in perhaps 11 years — or, if the recession is protracted and severe, maybe even sooner.”
Siegel Bernard notes that President Trump has talked about terminating the payroll tax the funds Social Security and having the program funded through the general budget, though the White House says that he only meant he wants to forgive payroll taxes deferred under an executive action he announced in August.
Experts warn that, while eliminating the payroll tax is unlikely, any such change would represent a monumental shift that could undermine Social Security. “We have a very crowded budget as it is,” Shai Akabas, economic policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center, tells the Times. “And having Social Security in the mix with everything else puts the program at risk in the future.”
Joe Biden, meanwhile, has proposed expanding both the payroll tax and benefits. The 12.4% tax, split between employers and employees, currently applies to the first $137,700 in earnings. Biden would have it also apply to earnings above $400,000 a year — and, as Siegel Bernard notes, because the $137,700 cap is set to rise with inflation, the tax would eventually apply to all income up to $400,000.
“What is commendable about Biden’s plan is that he actually has one, taking the financial challenges facing Social Security seriously,” Richard Johnson, director of the program on retirement policy at Urban Institute, a nonprofit think tank, told MarketWatch recently.
An analysis published this month by Johnson and his colleagues at the Urban Institute found that Biden’s proposals would close about a quarter of Social Security’s long-term funding shortfall and add about five years to the expected life of the trust funds. The analysis also projected that Biden’s proposals would cut the poverty rate for adult Social Security beneficiaries by more than half over the coming decades.
Critics note that Biden’s proposals don’t factor in the impact of the pandemic — and don’t do much to solve Social Security’s long-term problems. “Social Security would become insolvent in 2040 instead of 2035,” Andrew Biggs of the American Enterprise Institute wrote in The Wall Street Journal earlier this month. “Further tax increases would surely be demanded down the road.”
Akabas of the Bipartisan Policy Center told the Times that action is needed now to avoid more painful changes — bigger tax increases or cuts — down the line. “The longer we wait to fix the problem,” he said, “the fewer people who can play a role in the solution.”
Read more at The New York Times, MarketWatch or the Urban Institute.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-03--Joe Biden’s Economy Czar

Joe Biden’s Economy Czar

Joe Biden has a vast team of advisers working on plans to boost the economy in the event that the former vice president wins the presidential election .
While some are big names who served in the Obama administration , a report in The New York Times Monday says a relatively young and little-known tax and budget expert named Ben Harris is coordinating the Biden campaign ’ s economic platform , and the policies he is crafting could play an important role in managing the economy starting early next year .
Finding compromise : The challenge for Harris , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ senior economic adviser , is to balance two important but divergent interest groups in the Democratic Party : progressives on the left , many of whom think President Barack Obama was too timid when it came to combating the Great Recession , and business-oriented centrists who worry that progressives will be too aggressive in their efforts to repair a pandemic-ravaged economy in 2021 and beyond .
According to the Times ’ Jim Tankersley , Harris has successfully threaded the needle between the groups , crafting proposals for the tax hikes and increased spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accept and even embrace .
“ The economic agenda Mr. Harris helped craft includes income and investment tax increases on top earners , higher taxes for corporations and a variety of spending increases in areas like clean energy , infrastructure and higher education , ” Tankersley writes .
“ While those plans remain far less aggressive than the tax-and-spending ideas of Mr. Biden ’ s more liberal primary campaign rivals , he has managed to avoid sharp criticism from the left-leaning economists who have pushed for historically large tax increases on corporations and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ addition to pleasing the progressive wing , the compromises Harris has wrought have been embraced by Wall Street , which has poured money in the Biden campaign , and the general public , which generally approves of higher taxes on the wealthy and increased spending on public goods .
Harris ’ s policies also tend to play well with the budget models that can make or break a policy proposal in Washington .
The personal income tax hikes Biden has proposed , for example , are similar to those proposed by Bernie Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within the existing tax code and come at a lower economic cost .
That could help a potential Biden administration get its agenda through Congress as it takes up the fight against the coronavirus early next year .

Joe Biden has a vast team of advisers working on plans to boost the economy in the event that the former vice president wins the presidential election. While some are big names who served in the Obama administration, a report in The New York Times Monday says a relatively young and little-known tax and budget expert named Ben Harris is coordinating the Biden campaign’s economic platform, and the policies he is crafting could play an important role in managing the economy starting early next year.
Finding compromise: The challenge for Harris, who serves as the Biden campaign’s senior economic adviser, is to balance two important but divergent interest groups in the Democratic Party: progressives on the left, many of whom think President Barack Obama was too timid when it came to combating the Great Recession, and business-oriented centrists who worry that progressives will be too aggressive in their efforts to repair a pandemic-ravaged economy in 2021 and beyond.
According to the Times’ Jim Tankersley, Harris has successfully threaded the needle between the groups, crafting proposals for the tax hikes and increased spending progressives want in ways that centrists can accept and even embrace.
“The economic agenda Mr. Harris helped craft includes income and investment tax increases on top earners, higher taxes for corporations and a variety of spending increases in areas like clean energy, infrastructure and higher education,” Tankersley writes. “While those plans remain far less aggressive than the tax-and-spending ideas of Mr. Biden’s more liberal primary campaign rivals, he has managed to avoid sharp criticism from the left-leaning economists who have pushed for historically large tax increases on corporations and the rich.”
Gathering support: In addition to pleasing the progressive wing, the compromises Harris has wrought have been embraced by Wall Street, which has poured money in the Biden campaign, and the general public, which generally approves of higher taxes on the wealthy and increased spending on public goods.
Harris’s policies also tend to play well with the budget models that can make or break a policy proposal in Washington. The personal income tax hikes Biden has proposed, for example, are similar to those proposed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but are structured within the existing tax code and come at a lower economic cost. That could help a potential Biden administration get its agenda through Congress as it takes up the fight against the coronavirus early next year.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-02--Judge Blocks ‘Public Charge’ Rule for Immigrants

A federal judge has halted an effort by the Trump administration to deny green cards to immigrants who use public benefits such as food stamps , Medicaid and housing assistance .
U.S. District Judge Gary Feinerman on Monday struck down the rule , saying that , among other issues , it violated the Administrative Procedure Act , which governs the process for creating new rules at federal agencies .
The Trump administration ’ s rule change was the subject of numerous legal challenges .
Officials in Chicago said the new rule would result in some immigrants avoiding necessary medical care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public charges ” and thereby losing access to residency .
“ As we all continue to be impacted by COVID-19 , it is vital that no one is fearful of accessing health care , ” Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle said in a statement .
“ The court ’ s decision to block enforcement of the Public Charge Rule re-opens doors for immigrants to access vital services like health care.
” Officials at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Citizenship Services have not said whether they will appeal @ @ @

A federal judge has halted an effort by the Trump administration to deny green cards to immigrants who use public benefits such as food stamps, Medicaid and housing assistance.
U.S. District Judge Gary Feinerman on Monday struck down the rule, saying that, among other issues, it violated the Administrative Procedure Act, which governs the process for creating new rules at federal agencies.
The Trump administration’s rule change was the subject of numerous legal challenges. Officials in Chicago said the new rule would result in some immigrants avoiding necessary medical care, for fear of being branded “public charges” and thereby losing access to residency. “As we all continue to be impacted by COVID-19, it is vital that no one is fearful of accessing health care,” Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle said in a statement. “The court’s decision to block enforcement of the Public Charge Rule re-opens doors for immigrants to access vital services like health care.”
Officials at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Citizenship Services have not said whether they will appeal the ruling.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-02--Post-Election Gridlock Could Scar the Economy

Even after the election , the nation could face a prolonged stretch of political gridlock that further delays another coronavirus relief package even as the economy faces additional pain .
The Washington Post ’ s Jeff Stein reports that a number of economic sectors are preparing to be hit by the surge of Covid-19 cases and the arrival of winter , with some 40 % of restaurant owners across the country saying in industry surveys that the expect to go out of business by March without more aid .
The travel and hotel sectors also face severe strains .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ are also at risk of having their power and water shut off with unpaid utility bills coming due , while protections for renters , student borrowers and jobless Americans will expire by the end of the year ” unless Congress can pass additional relief legislation .
“ I don ’ t think the biggest risks are common or national-level .
The biggest risks are specific geographies and specific parts of the population , ” said economist Ernie Tedeschi .
“ But the pain for those segments could be very deep.
” Michael @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a right-leaning think tank , told the Post : “ All signs suggest that we ’ re in for the worst of this at the same time the situation in Washington is also becoming its worst and most horrible.
” What will Trump do ?
“ Among the biggest mysteries hovering over this uncertainty is what Trump and his aides will do after Election Day , particularly if he loses to Democratic nominee Joe Biden , ” Stein writes .
“ There are almost three months between the Nov. 3 election and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the period of time when both public health experts and economists fear the coronavirus will strike the nation with renewed ferocity .
As colder weather pushes people indoors , the Trump administration has not outlined a plan for how to deal with an expected surge of cases and hospitalizations .
… Several former White House officials and numerous Republican aides on Capitol Hill said they believe it is possible the president loses interest in the stimulus package once it has no utility for his 2020 presidential campaign.
” Another wave of job losses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second wave of job losses — this one more likely to permanently push millions out of the labor force , lower wages and leave long-lasting scars on the economy , ” writes Dion Rabouin at Axios .
Rabouin notes that a number of large corporations have announced thousands of layoffs recently .
“ Rather than a panic-driven effort to cut costs and stay above water , these job losses are largely a result of companies reducing headcount after mergers and acquisitions or as part of a longer-term strategy , ” he adds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Dan Primack sums it up , “ With less than 24 hours until Election Day , there 's one truth that applies to every federal elected official running for re-election , from President Trump to the furthest backbencher in Congress : They failed to produce the economic stimulus that almost everyone agrees is needed , including a second wave of PPP loans .
”

Even after the election, the nation could face a prolonged stretch of political gridlock that further delays another coronavirus relief package even as the economy faces additional pain.
The Washington Post’s Jeff Stein reports that a number of economic sectors are preparing to be hit by the surge of Covid-19 cases and the arrival of winter, with some 40% of restaurant owners across the country saying in industry surveys that the expect to go out of business by March without more aid. The travel and hotel sectors also face severe strains.
At the same time, millions of Americans “are also at risk of having their power and water shut off with unpaid utility bills coming due, while protections for renters, student borrowers and jobless Americans will expire by the end of the year” unless Congress can pass additional relief legislation.
“I don’t think the biggest risks are common or national-level. The biggest risks are specific geographies and specific parts of the population,” said economist Ernie Tedeschi. “But the pain for those segments could be very deep.”
Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, told the Post: “All signs suggest that we’re in for the worst of this at the same time the situation in Washington is also becoming its worst and most horrible.”
What will Trump do? “Among the biggest mysteries hovering over this uncertainty is what Trump and his aides will do after Election Day, particularly if he loses to Democratic nominee Joe Biden,” Stein writes. “There are almost three months between the Nov. 3 election and the next inauguration on Jan. 20 — approximately the period of time when both public health experts and economists fear the coronavirus will strike the nation with renewed ferocity. As colder weather pushes people indoors, the Trump administration has not outlined a plan for how to deal with an expected surge of cases and hospitalizations. … Several former White House officials and numerous Republican aides on Capitol Hill said they believe it is possible the president loses interest in the stimulus package once it has no utility for his 2020 presidential campaign.”
Another wave of job losses: “We are about to see a second wave of job losses — this one more likely to permanently push millions out of the labor force, lower wages and leave long-lasting scars on the economy,” writes Dion Rabouin at Axios. Rabouin notes that a number of large corporations have announced thousands of layoffs recently. “Rather than a panic-driven effort to cut costs and stay above water, these job losses are largely a result of companies reducing headcount after mergers and acquisitions or as part of a longer-term strategy,” he adds.
The bottom line: As Axios’s Dan Primack sums it up, “With less than 24 hours until Election Day, there's one truth that applies to every federal elected official running for re-election, from President Trump to the furthest backbencher in Congress: They failed to produce the economic stimulus that almost everyone agrees is needed, including a second wave of PPP loans.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-02--The 3 Key Questions for Election Day

The 3 Key Questions for Election Day

We ’ re almost there .
After all the campaign drama , speeches , claims and counterclaims , we ’ re just hours away from Election Day , when the final votes will be cast — if not counted .
We may not know the winner by the end of the night , but here ’ s what you need to know to get through the day .
Who ’ s going to win ?
Forecasters say former vice president Joe Biden has the edge , with the FiveThirtyEight model giving him a roughly 90 % chance of victory and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 99 % chance of winning the popular vote and a 96 % chance of winning the Electoral College .
But as FiveThirtyEight notes , those forecasts could still be wrong : “ What ’ s important to remember is that Biden is favored , but there is still a path for Trump .
Trump might be the underdog , and he needs a big polling error in his favor , but bigger polling errors have happened in the past .
A 10 percent chance of winning , which is what our forecast gives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the odds that it ’ s raining in downtown Los Angeles .
And it does rain there.
” And Zeynep Tufecki , the University of North Carolina sociologist who The New York Times recently said “ keeps getting the big things right , ” warned in a Times op-ed this weekend that , given all the uncertainties around this year ’ s voting , from the pandemic to polls to questions about turnout and vote counting , the models used by these forecasters are less useful than in the past — “ and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them too seriously.
” So if you haven ’ t done it yet , vote .
And then , hard as it may be , don ’ t stress out about the results — or at least realize that your stress isn ’ t going to change anything .
When will we know the results ?
We may know the winner by early Wednesday .
Or we may not — and , despite what President Trump says , that ’ s ok. As Nicholas Riccardi of the Associated Press explains , that would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broken , fraudulent , corrupted or wrong.
” As Maggie Astor writes at The New York Times , “ No state ever reports final results on election night , and no state is legally expected to .
Americans are accustomed to knowing who won on election night because news organizations project winners based on partial counts , not because the counting is actually completed that quickly.
” This year , with millions more Americans having voted by mail , news organizations that track vote counts may need more time to be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states — like Colorado , which has been conducting elections by mail for years , or Florida , which allows officials to begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day — it may still be possible to call winners on election night , depending on how close the races are , ” Astor writes .
“ But in many other states — including the all-important Pennsylvania , where some counties will not begin counting mail-in ballots until Nov. 4 because of limited resources — it could take several days to get an accurate picture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be evidence not of a conspiracy but of the electoral system working as it should , by counting every vote.
” What could go wrong ?
Oh boy .
Do you really want to know ?
The list of possible risks is long , with fears percolating about anything and everything from technological problems to legal disputes to violence in the streets .
One candidate or the other ( read : Trump ) could declare victory before the results are known or challenge the legitimacy of certain votes or the outcome , potentially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how the election could be contested .
Let ’ s all hope for the best , but if you want to mentally prepare for the worst , you can read more here , here or here .

We’re almost there. After all the campaign drama, speeches, claims and counterclaims, we’re just hours away from Election Day, when the final votes will be cast — if not counted. We may not know the winner by the end of the night, but here’s what you need to know to get through the day.
Who’s going to win? Forecasters say former vice president Joe Biden has the edge, with the FiveThirtyEight model giving him a roughly 90% chance of victory and The Economist giving him a better than 99% chance of winning the popular vote and a 96% chance of winning the Electoral College. But as FiveThirtyEight notes, those forecasts could still be wrong:
“What’s important to remember is that Biden is favored, but there is still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, and he needs a big polling error in his favor, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there.”
And Zeynep Tufecki, the University of North Carolina sociologist who The New York Times recently said “keeps getting the big things right,” warned in a Times op-ed this weekend that, given all the uncertainties around this year’s voting, from the pandemic to polls to questions about turnout and vote counting, the models used by these forecasters are less useful than in the past — “and may even be harmful if people take them too seriously.”
So if you haven’t done it yet, vote. And then, hard as it may be, don’t stress out about the results — or at least realize that your stress isn’t going to change anything.
When will we know the results? We may know the winner by early Wednesday. Or we may not — and, despite what President Trump says, that’s ok. As Nicholas Riccardi of the Associated Press explains, that would not necessarily mean that anything is “broken, fraudulent, corrupted or wrong.”
As Maggie Astor writes at The New York Times, “No state ever reports final results on election night, and no state is legally expected to. Americans are accustomed to knowing who won on election night because news organizations project winners based on partial counts, not because the counting is actually completed that quickly.” This year, with millions more Americans having voted by mail, news organizations that track vote counts may need more time to be able to project a winner.
“In some states — like Colorado, which has been conducting elections by mail for years, or Florida, which allows officials to begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day — it may still be possible to call winners on election night, depending on how close the races are,” Astor writes. “But in many other states — including the all-important Pennsylvania, where some counties will not begin counting mail-in ballots until Nov. 4 because of limited resources — it could take several days to get an accurate picture. If this happens, it will be evidence not of a conspiracy but of the electoral system working as it should, by counting every vote.”
What could go wrong? Oh boy. Do you really want to know? The list of possible risks is long, with fears percolating about anything and everything from technological problems to legal disputes to violence in the streets. One candidate or the other (read: Trump) could declare victory before the results are known or challenge the legitimacy of certain votes or the outcome, potentially setting up even more extreme scenarios for how the election could be contested. Let’s all hope for the best, but if you want to mentally prepare for the worst, you can read more here, here or here.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-03--Views of Deficit Depend on Framing: Analysis

A progressive group aligned with the Democratic Party released a report this week that explores Americans ’ attitudes toward the budget deficit and the national debt .
Analysts at Data for Progress found that voter support for deficit spending can vary depending on how it is framed – an insight that may play a role in the political and communications battle to come over additional government spending on coronavirus relief and , should Joe Biden win the election , potentially a whole host of new federal initiatives , from public investment in green energy to increased support for housing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , researchers found that “ when deficit-spending is anchored to a promise of immediate , material benefits , voters become receptive to the idea.
” In other words , Americans are more likely to support deficit spending if the money is used on things that clearly benefit them such as infrastructure , health care and schools .
Similarly , telling people that more deficit-fueled spending is necessary to help people who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus produces increased support for the idea , with a majority expressing support .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a survey to test specific messages that frame deficit spending in different ways and found that most people support such spending if it ’ s tied to long-term economic growth ( “ To put our financial house in order , we need to invest money in the American people .
In the short term , this may mean increasing the debt but in the long term these investments will pay for themselves by growing the economy and creating jobs ” ) and to help needy fellow citizens ( “ To help Americans in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase the national debt in the short term ” ) .
On the other hand , a message focusing on the hypocrisy of politicians who complain about the deficit while proving tax breaks for the rich ( “ Concern about the national debt is hypocritical .
Whenever politicians need money for a war or a tax break for the rich , there ’ s money to be had .
We should use deficit spending to help the working and middle class instead ” ) was less effective , with most respondents choosing an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to balance its books the way a household would .
If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children ” ) .
Voters are still divided : Not surprisingly , there is a strong partisan difference in attitudes on all framing messages , with a majority of Republicans expressing opposition to deficit spending across different messages ( linking deficit spending to increased economic growth is an exception ) .
Democrats support all framing messages , though to varying degrees .

A progressive group aligned with the Democratic Party released a report this week that explores Americans’ attitudes toward the budget deficit and the national debt. Analysts at Data for Progress found that voter support for deficit spending can vary depending on how it is framed – an insight that may play a role in the political and communications battle to come over additional government spending on coronavirus relief and, should Joe Biden win the election, potentially a whole host of new federal initiatives, from public investment in green energy to increased support for housing and health care.
In a previous report, researchers found that “when deficit-spending is anchored to a promise of immediate, material benefits, voters become receptive to the idea.” In other words, Americans are more likely to support deficit spending if the money is used on things that clearly benefit them such as infrastructure, health care and schools.
Similarly, telling people that more deficit-fueled spending is necessary to help people who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus produces increased support for the idea, with a majority expressing support.
In their new report, the analysts used a survey to test specific messages that frame deficit spending in different ways and found that most people support such spending if it’s tied to long-term economic growth (“To put our financial house in order, we need to invest money in the American people. In the short term, this may mean increasing the debt but in the long term these investments will pay for themselves by growing the economy and creating jobs”) and to help needy fellow citizens (“To help Americans in need it’s okay if we increase the national debt in the short term”).
On the other hand, a message focusing on the hypocrisy of politicians who complain about the deficit while proving tax breaks for the rich (“Concern about the national debt is hypocritical. Whenever politicians need money for a war or a tax break for the rich, there’s money to be had. We should use deficit spending to help the working and middle class instead”) was less effective, with most respondents choosing an anti-deficit message (“The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children”).
Voters are still divided: Not surprisingly, there is a strong partisan difference in attitudes on all framing messages, with a majority of Republicans expressing opposition to deficit spending across different messages (linking deficit spending to increased economic growth is an exception). Democrats support all framing messages, though to varying degrees.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-02--Pelosi’s Plan to Pass a Coronavirus Relief Bill — and More

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) said Monday that Democrats may seek to use budget reconciliation to provide more @ @ @ @ @ economic stimulus , as well as to enhance Obamacare .
“ We ’ ll almost @ @ @ @ @ bill , not only for the Affordable Care Act , but for what we may @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic and some other issues that relate to the well-being of the American people @ @ @ @ @ a meeting with a progressive group , Politico reported .
Democrats could proceed with budget @ @ @ @ @ win control of the White House and both houses of Congress .
Legislative rules allow @ @ @ @ @ spending package through the Senate once a year with a simple majority vote , avoiding @ @ @ @ @ filibuster , which requires 60 votes to end .

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Monday that Democrats may seek to use budget reconciliation to provide more funds for coronavirus relief and economic stimulus, as well as to enhance Obamacare.
“We’ll almost certainly be passing a reconciliation bill, not only for the Affordable Care Act, but for what we may want to do further on the pandemic and some other issues that relate to the well-being of the American people,” Pelosi said in a meeting with a progressive group, Politico reported.
Democrats could proceed with budget reconciliation if they were to win control of the White House and both houses of Congress. Legislative rules allow for the passage of a spending package through the Senate once a year with a simple majority vote, avoiding the potential snare of a filibuster, which requires 60 votes to end.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-06--Layoffs Remain Stubbornly High as Covid Cases Hit New Daily Record

No matter who wins the White House , they ’ ll be dealing with an economy that is still showing signs of serious stress .
About 751,000 people filed initial state unemployment claims last week , the Labor Department announced Thursday , a slight decrease from the week before but more than analysts expected .
Another 363,000 filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance , the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed , bringing the total of new filers to roughly 1.1 million , little changed from last week .
All told , about 21.5 million people are receiving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline of 1.1 million from the week before – but about 15 times higher than the same time last year , before the Covid-19 took hold .
Unprecedented conditions : Eight months after the pandemic began to tear through the U.S. economy , layoffs – which are roughly in line with new unemployment filings – are still at historically high levels .
“ Last week was the 33rd straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession , ” said Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worry that a new wave of infections could dramatically slow the already faltering recovery , and public health officials are delivering bad news in that regard .
“ The United States on Wednesday recorded over 100,000 new coronavirus cases in a single day for the first time since the pandemic began , bursting past a grim threshold even as the wave of infections engulfing the country shows no sign of receding , ” The New York Times reported .
Fed chief warns : Speaking to reporters after a meeting of the Federal Open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Powell said that the outlook for the economy is “ extraordinarily uncertain ” and that he was concerned about the resurgence of the coronavirus .
The pandemic is the biggest threat to the economy , Powell said , forcing households to run through the savings they accumulated from enhanced unemployment benefits and stimulus checks , which were provided by federal programs that have now run out of money , with no clear plan in sight to revive them .
The Fed chief said he was confident that officials could maintain financial stability in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need help from lawmakers when it comes to households and consumer demand .
“ We ’ ll have a stronger recovery if we can get at least some more fiscal support , when it ’ s appropriate and at the size Congress thinks is appropriate.
” Waiting for a vaccine : “ A sustained recovery will not occur until a vaccine is widely available , likely in mid-2021 , at best , ” Dante DeAntonio , an economist at Moody ’ s Analytics , said in a note Thursday .
Until then , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weighted heavily to the downside.
” DeAntonio added that the “ increased spread of the virus across much of the country could result in an even larger pullback in business activity than expected .
Further , the breakdown of talks for additional fiscal stimulus prior to the election left households , businesses , and state and local governments in the lurch waiting for additional support .
This will further weaken an already-fragile labor market recovery .
”

No matter who wins the White House, they’ll be dealing with an economy that is still showing signs of serious stress.
About 751,000 people filed initial state unemployment claims last week, the Labor Department announced Thursday, a slight decrease from the week before but more than analysts expected. Another 363,000 filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed, bringing the total of new filers to roughly 1.1 million, little changed from last week.
All told, about 21.5 million people are receiving come kind of unemployment assistance, a decline of 1.1 million from the week before – but about 15 times higher than the same time last year, before the Covid-19 took hold.
Unprecedented conditions: Eight months after the pandemic began to tear through the U.S. economy, layoffs – which are roughly in line with new unemployment filings – are still at historically high levels. “Last week was the 33rd straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession,” said Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute.
Covid cases climbing: Economists worry that a new wave of infections could dramatically slow the already faltering recovery, and public health officials are delivering bad news in that regard. “The United States on Wednesday recorded over 100,000 new coronavirus cases in a single day for the first time since the pandemic began, bursting past a grim threshold even as the wave of infections engulfing the country shows no sign of receding,” The New York Times reported.
Fed chief warns: Speaking to reporters after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the outlook for the economy is “extraordinarily uncertain” and that he was concerned about the resurgence of the coronavirus. The pandemic is the biggest threat to the economy, Powell said, forcing households to run through the savings they accumulated from enhanced unemployment benefits and stimulus checks, which were provided by federal programs that have now run out of money, with no clear plan in sight to revive them.
The Fed chief said he was confident that officials could maintain financial stability in the broader economy, but they would need help from lawmakers when it comes to households and consumer demand. “We’ll have a stronger recovery if we can get at least some more fiscal support, when it’s appropriate and at the size Congress thinks is appropriate.”
Waiting for a vaccine: “A sustained recovery will not occur until a vaccine is widely available, likely in mid-2021, at best,” Dante DeAntonio, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a note Thursday. Until then, risks to the labor market “are weighted heavily to the downside.” DeAntonio added that the “increased spread of the virus across much of the country could result in an even larger pullback in business activity than expected. Further, the breakdown of talks for additional fiscal stimulus prior to the election left households, businesses, and state and local governments in the lurch waiting for additional support. This will further weaken an already-fragile labor market recovery.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-05--McConnell Will Have Major Leverage Over a Biden Administration

Votes are still being counted and the winner of the presidential race remains uncertain , but the election results are shaping up to give Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell significant leverage over a potential Joe Biden administration — and the Kentucky Republican is reportedly ready to use it to shape not just legislation but the Democratic administration itself .
We told you yesterday how the GOP ’ s likely hold on control of the Senate could scuttle the most ambitious and progressive plans of an incoming Democratic administration , from a larger stimulus bill to expansion of the Affordable Care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s still possible that Democrats will gain a 50-20 split in the Senate ( a scenario that would require them to win runoffs for both Georgia seats ) , but some Democrats are already acknowledging they may have to set their sights lower and abandon plans to pass legislation through the Senate without relying on Republican votes by using a maneuver called “ budget reconciliation ” — the same way they had passed the Affordable Care Act and that Republicans pushed through their 2017 tax package .
“ We all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being able to really change the direction of the country , and that ’ s not looking like a realistic possibility right now , ” House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth ( D-KY ) said , according to The Washington Post .
“ We had prepared a lot of memos on things like reconciliation that now we ’ re going to have to file away unless something crazy happens in the Senate.
” Instead , any major legislation is likely to involve conflict and compromise .
“ If Republicans keep the Senate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but divided government doesn ’ t mean there won ’ t be action .
We ’ ll just be back to governing by conflict , ” Brendan Buck , who was a top aide to former House speaker Paul Ryan ( R-WI ) , told the Post .
“ There will always be pressure points and funding deadlines that force action and force compromise.
” But continued GOP control of the Senate may give McConnell leverage to shape more than legislation .
“ Republicans ' likely hold on the Senate is forcing Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its prospective Cabinet nominees to those who Mitch McConnell can live with , ” Axios ’ s Hans Nichols and Mike Allen report .
“ A source close to McConnell tells Axios a Republican Senate would work with Biden on centrist nominees but no ‘ radical progressives ’ or ones who are controversial with conservatives.
” That reportedly could push Biden to drop some potential progressive Cabinet members in favor of centrist options more likely to be approved by Senate Republicans , like Lael Brainard , a member of the Federal Reserve ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ secretary or Tony Blinken , who served in the Obama administration , for State .
`` It 's going to be armed camps , '' the source close to McConnell told Axios .

Votes are still being counted and the winner of the presidential race remains uncertain, but the election results are shaping up to give Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell significant leverage over a potential Joe Biden administration — and the Kentucky Republican is reportedly ready to use it to shape not just legislation but the Democratic administration itself.
We told you yesterday how the GOP’s likely hold on control of the Senate could scuttle the most ambitious and progressive plans of an incoming Democratic administration, from a larger stimulus bill to expansion of the Affordable Care Act to reversing some Republican tax cuts.
It’s still possible that Democrats will gain a 50-20 split in the Senate (a scenario that would require them to win runoffs for both Georgia seats), but some Democrats are already acknowledging they may have to set their sights lower and abandon plans to pass legislation through the Senate without relying on Republican votes by using a maneuver called “budget reconciliation” — the same way they had passed the Affordable Care Act and that Republicans pushed through their 2017 tax package.
“We all felt that we had the possibility of being able to really change the direction of the country, and that’s not looking like a realistic possibility right now,” House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) said, according to The Washington Post. “We had prepared a lot of memos on things like reconciliation that now we’re going to have to file away unless something crazy happens in the Senate.”
Instead, any major legislation is likely to involve conflict and compromise. “If Republicans keep the Senate, you can forget the Biden agenda, but divided government doesn’t mean there won’t be action. We’ll just be back to governing by conflict,” Brendan Buck, who was a top aide to former House speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), told the Post. “There will always be pressure points and funding deadlines that force action and force compromise.”
But continued GOP control of the Senate may give McConnell leverage to shape more than legislation. “Republicans' likely hold on the Senate is forcing Joe Biden's transition team to consider limiting its prospective Cabinet nominees to those who Mitch McConnell can live with,” Axios’s Hans Nichols and Mike Allen report. “A source close to McConnell tells Axios a Republican Senate would work with Biden on centrist nominees but no ‘radical progressives’ or ones who are controversial with conservatives.”
That reportedly could push Biden to drop some potential progressive Cabinet members in favor of centrist options more likely to be approved by Senate Republicans, like Lael Brainard, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, for Treasury secretary or Tony Blinken, who served in the Obama administration, for State.
"It's going to be armed camps," the source close to McConnell told Axios.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-03--Birx Contradicts Trump, Warns Pandemic Entering ‘Most Deadly Phase’

Dr. Deborah Birx , a top White House adviser on the coronavirus task force , warned Monday that the pandemic is entering its “ most concerning and most deadly phase ” and called for “ much more aggressive action ” to combat the virus .
“ We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic , ” Birx wrote in a memo Monday to top administration officials , according to The Washington Post .
“ This is not about lockdowns — it hasn ’ t been about lockdowns since March or April .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not being implemented.
” The warning stands in sharp contrast with the repeated assertions by President Trump that the country is “ rounding the corner ” on the pandemic and that media coverage of the virus was politically motivated and would vanish after the election .
The report warned against the type of rallies the president has been holding over the final days of the campaign .
More from the Post ’ s Lena H. Sun and Josh Dawsey : “ Birx ’ s internal report , shared with top White House and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points : While the president holds large campaign events with hundreds of attendees , most without masks , she explicitly warns against them .
While the president blames rising cases on more testing , she says testing is ‘ flat or declining ’ in many areas where cases are rising .
And while Trump says the country is ‘ rounding the turn , ’ Birx notes that the country is entering its most dangerous period yet and will see more than 100,000 new cases a day this week.
” The report also said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deliver “ consistent messaging about uniform use of masks , physical distancing and hand washing with profound limitation on indoor gatherings especially with family and friends.
” Resisting new restrictions : Yet even as coronavirus cases surge across the country , many states across the country are following Trump ’ s lead and resisting new measures to slow the spread of the pandemic , The New York Times ’ s Mike Baker reports : “ President Trump and his administration have expressed increasing helplessness at containing the virus , focusing instead on improvements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy together .
… Governors around the country , particularly Republican ones , are following the president ’ s lead in resisting new restrictions against a virus that has powerfully persisted despite lockdowns in some areas over the spring and summer .
“ Gov .
Kristi Noem of South Dakota wrote that ‘ there is no way to stop the virus , ’ while Gov .
Doug Burgum of North Dakota said that when it comes to saving lives , ‘ it ’ s not a job for government , this is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gov .
Bill Lee told residents that ‘ at the end of the day , personal responsibility is the only way.
’ Gov .
Mike Dunleavy of Alaska said in an interview that rising case numbers this fall should not cause people to go into hiding.
” White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN last month that “ we ’ re not going to control the pandemic ” and emphasized a focus on treatments and vaccines .
It ’ s not just governors : The signs of virus fatigue extend far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gallup survey cited by the Times found that Americans have dialed back on social distancing practices since the early days of the pandemic , though more than 90 % still report wearing a mask when outside their home .
“ Americans are less likely now than at any point since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic to say they are avoiding events with large crowds ( 70 % ) , public places such as stores and restaurants ( 53 % ) and small gatherings ( 45 % ) , ” Gallup said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who told Gallup they always or often practiced social distancing over the past 24 hours slipped from 92 % in April to 72 % in September .
What it means : It ’ s up to the American public to step up .
“ [ E ] ven if Joe Biden wins the election , he wo n't take office until late January , and wo n't be able to fully staff up and implement his plans until weeks after that , ” writes Jill Filipovic at CNN .
“ Unless the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other public health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci are asking -- and given their behavior so far , we have no reason to believe they will -- we are going to be largely on our own for this long , deadly winter.
” Read more at The Washington Post and The New York Times .

Dr. Deborah Birx, a top White House adviser on the coronavirus task force, warned Monday that the pandemic is entering its “most concerning and most deadly phase” and called for “much more aggressive action” to combat the virus.
“We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic,” Birx wrote in a memo Monday to top administration officials, according to The Washington Post. “This is not about lockdowns — it hasn’t been about lockdowns since March or April. It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented.”
The warning stands in sharp contrast with the repeated assertions by President Trump that the country is “rounding the corner” on the pandemic and that media coverage of the virus was politically motivated and would vanish after the election. The report warned against the type of rallies the president has been holding over the final days of the campaign.
More from the Post’s Lena H. Sun and Josh Dawsey:
“Birx’s internal report, shared with top White House and agency officials, contradicts Trump on numerous points: While the president holds large campaign events with hundreds of attendees, most without masks, she explicitly warns against them. While the president blames rising cases on more testing, she says testing is ‘flat or declining’ in many areas where cases are rising. And while Trump says the country is ‘rounding the turn,’ Birx notes that the country is entering its most dangerous period yet and will see more than 100,000 new cases a day this week.”
The report also said it was “essential” that officials deliver “consistent messaging about uniform use of masks, physical distancing and hand washing with profound limitation on indoor gatherings especially with family and friends.”
Resisting new restrictions: Yet even as coronavirus cases surge across the country, many states across the country are following Trump’s lead and resisting new measures to slow the spread of the pandemic, The New York Times’s Mike Baker reports:
“President Trump and his administration have expressed increasing helplessness at containing the virus, focusing instead on improvements in survivability and trying to hold the economy together. … Governors around the country, particularly Republican ones, are following the president’s lead in resisting new restrictions against a virus that has powerfully persisted despite lockdowns in some areas over the spring and summer.
“Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota wrote that ‘there is no way to stop the virus,’ while Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota said that when it comes to saving lives, ‘it’s not a job for government, this is a job for everybody.’ In Tennessee, Gov. Bill Lee told residents that ‘at the end of the day, personal responsibility is the only way.’ Gov. Mike Dunleavy of Alaska said in an interview that rising case numbers this fall should not cause people to go into hiding.”
White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN last month that “we’re not going to control the pandemic” and emphasized a focus on treatments and vaccines.
It’s not just governors: The signs of virus fatigue extend far beyond Republican political leaders. A September Gallup survey cited by the Times found that Americans have dialed back on social distancing practices since the early days of the pandemic, though more than 90% still report wearing a mask when outside their home.
“Americans are less likely now than at any point since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic to say they are avoiding events with large crowds (70%), public places such as stores and restaurants (53%) and small gatherings (45%),” Gallup said of the survey.
The percentage of people who told Gallup they always or often practiced social distancing over the past 24 hours slipped from 92% in April to 72% in September.
What it means: It’s up to the American public to step up. “[E]ven if Joe Biden wins the election, he won't take office until late January, and won't be able to fully staff up and implement his plans until weeks after that,” writes Jill Filipovic at CNN. “Unless the Trump administration finally does what Birx and other public health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci are asking -- and given their behavior so far, we have no reason to believe they will -- we are going to be largely on our own for this long, deadly winter.”
Read more at The Washington Post and The New York Times.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-04--Covid vs. the Economy: What Mattered to Voters

That play on James Carville ’ s famous “ It ’ s the economy , stupid ” mantra from Bill Clinton ’ s 1992 presidential campaign was occasionally repeated in media coverage of the presidential election and may have been accepted as conventional wisdom among some political strategists — and not just Democratic ones .
The reality was far more complicated , if exit poll results are to be believed .
Of course , given the big problems with this year ’ s polls and polling-based forecasts , you probably want to take those exit poll results with a spoonful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggest that voters were deeply divided about what mattered most to them , and that Carville ’ s old mantra about the economy still held true for many , especially Trump supporters .
Early results from exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool show that just over a third of voters said the economy was the most important issue in determining their vote .
Racial inequality was the top issue for 21 % of those surveyed , while fewer than one in five voters said the Covid-19 pandemic mattered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Associated Press VoteCast , a survey of the electorate conducted over several days , found that 41 % said that the coronavirus pandemic was the most important issue facing the country , while 28 % cited the economy and jobs . )
About 10 % of voters said health care policy was their top issue , a sharp drop from recent election cycles .
In the exit poll , voters who backed Trump were more likely to cite the economy and crime and safety as top issues , while Biden backers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ injustice and the pandemic .
( Voters were also about three times as likely to say that the candidates ’ position on the issues , rather than their “ personal qualities , ” mattered most to them . )
Voters who pointed to the economy broke overwhelmingly ( 82 % ) for Trump , while those who cited the pandemic went overwhelmingly ( also 82 % ) for Biden .
While 51 % of voters in the exit poll said it was more important to contain the virus now , even if it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more likely to prioritize rebuilding the economy , even if it hinders efforts to combat the pandemic .
“ In short , voters seemingly saw a dichotomy between the economy and the public health response to the virus , and where they stood on that divide fell along deeply partisan lines , ” Vox ’ s Julia Belluz writes .
“ Republican voters overwhelmingly wanted the economy to restart — something Trump has long been advocating for — more than they wanted to see the virus controlled .
They also viewed the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the pandemic , when deciding whom to support.
” Belluz notes that Trump won in states with the greatest density of new Covid-19 infections —Utah , Montana , Wyoming , North Dakota , South Dakota , Nebraska , Indiana .
Those are all solidly red states that were expected to vote for the president , but the ravages of the virus apparently did not do much to change voter preferences in those hard-hit states .
The bottom line : While public health experts and others , including Biden , have emphasized that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the economy , Trump supporters embraced the president ’ s position that the virus is at least somewhat under control and his emphasis on revitalizing the economy despite rising Covid case counts .
Read more at The New York Times .

It’s the pandemic, stupid.
That play on James Carville’s famous “It’s the economy, stupid” mantra from Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign was occasionally repeated in media coverage of the presidential election and may have been accepted as conventional wisdom among some political strategists — and not just Democratic ones.
The reality was far more complicated, if exit poll results are to be believed. Of course, given the big problems with this year’s polls and polling-based forecasts, you probably want to take those exit poll results with a spoonful of salt. Still, the data suggest that voters were deeply divided about what mattered most to them, and that Carville’s old mantra about the economy still held true for many, especially Trump supporters.
Early results from exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool show that just over a third of voters said the economy was the most important issue in determining their vote. Racial inequality was the top issue for 21% of those surveyed, while fewer than one in five voters said the Covid-19 pandemic mattered most to them. (By contrast, the Associated Press VoteCast, a survey of the electorate conducted over several days, found that 41% said that the coronavirus pandemic was the most important issue facing the country, while 28% cited the economy and jobs.) About 10% of voters said health care policy was their top issue, a sharp drop from recent election cycles.
In the exit poll, voters who backed Trump were more likely to cite the economy and crime and safety as top issues, while Biden backers were more likely to point to racial injustice and the pandemic. (Voters were also about three times as likely to say that the candidates’ position on the issues, rather than their “personal qualities,” mattered most to them.) Voters who pointed to the economy broke overwhelmingly (82%) for Trump, while those who cited the pandemic went overwhelmingly (also 82%) for Biden.
While 51% of voters in the exit poll said it was more important to contain the virus now, even if it hurts the economy, Republicans were far more likely to prioritize rebuilding the economy, even if it hinders efforts to combat the pandemic.
“In short, voters seemingly saw a dichotomy between the economy and the public health response to the virus, and where they stood on that divide fell along deeply partisan lines,” Vox’s Julia Belluz writes. “Republican voters overwhelmingly wanted the economy to restart — something Trump has long been advocating for — more than they wanted to see the virus controlled. They also viewed the economy as a key issue, more so than the pandemic, when deciding whom to support.”
Belluz notes that Trump won in states with the greatest density of new Covid-19 infections —Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana. Those are all solidly red states that were expected to vote for the president, but the ravages of the virus apparently did not do much to change voter preferences in those hard-hit states.
The bottom line: While public health experts and others, including Biden, have emphasized that controlling the virus is key to reopening the economy, Trump supporters embraced the president’s position that the virus is at least somewhat under control and his emphasis on revitalizing the economy despite rising Covid case counts.
Read more at The New York Times.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-04--Election Results Signal Less Stimulus, More Gridlock

Although the final numbers aren ’ t in yet , it looks like the 2020 election will deliver a divided Congress to whichever party claims the White House .
Democratic hopes for a “ blue wave ” fell by the wayside pretty quickly Tuesday night , and it now seems likely that Democrats will keep control of the House while Republicans will maintain their majority in Senate following big wins for a handful of GOP incumbents in some closely watched races , including Susan Collins in Maine , Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ now appears to have an easier path to 270 Electoral College votes than President Donald Trump , without unified control of the government , either man will have a tough time advancing his agenda .
The most likely outcome in numerous important policy areas is a continuation of the status quo , with little room for major changes .
“ [ F ] or now , the main takeaway appears to be that whoever wins the presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress , ” Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics wrote Wednesday .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ could play out on some key issues .
Smaller coronavirus stimulus : Democrats have been seeking a coronavirus package worth at least $ 2 trillion , and a blue wave could have produced legislation totaling even more .
But with the Senate in Republican hands , the stimulus will likely be much smaller .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) — who cruised to reelection and is expected to return as leader , assuming Republicans maintain control — said Wednesday that an aid package would be a top priority , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that he was open to including aid for state and local governments , a key point of disagreement in previous negotiations .
“ We need another rescue package , ” McConnell said .
“ The Senate goes back into session next Monday .
Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election .
And I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.
” Whether Trump would be interested in signing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , especially if he loses .
But regardless of whether a stimulus package is sent to a Trump or Biden White House , it will almost certainly be smaller than it would have been had Democrats managed to pull off a clean sweep .
“ With Republicans still in charge in the Senate , we ’ d be surprised to see a stimulus bill early next year much in excess of $ 500 billion , far less than the $ 2 trillion we expected if Democrats had won , ” Ian Shepherdson , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wednesday .
The markets sent signals Wednesday that traders were adjusting to the prospect of a smaller stimulus .
“ The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen by about 10bp since the results started coming out overnight ... and the yields of other high-grade government bonds have fallen too , ” Goltermann of Capital Economics said .
“ The expectations of a big post-election fiscal deal had been a key factor pushing US bond yields higher over the past few weeks.
” No big changes for tax policy : Joe Biden wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wealthy in order to pay for some of his ambitious agenda , which includes huge spending increases on health care , education and green energy .
But a Senate controlled by McConnell is very unlikely to approve such changes , which include reversing some of the tax cuts Republicans passed in 2017 .
Similarly , a Trump administration would have a difficult time passing more tax cuts with Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) in control of the House .
Smaller tweaks for health care : Biden has proposed expanding the Affordable Care Act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that possibility .
“ If Republicans keep their majority in the Senate , Biden 's more expansive plans for addressing health care affordability by expanding ACA subsidies and adding a public option seem dead in the water , ” Larry Levitt of the Kaiser Family Foundation said .
Biden could still make numerous tweaks to the health care system through executive actions , just as Trump has done .
Levitt listed a few of those potential changes : “ Put scientists front and center , Extend ACA open enrollment , Reinstate ACA outreach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t cover pre-existing conditions , Undo family planning funding restrictions.
” Biden would not be able to eliminate the threat to the Affordable Care Act posed by a lawsuit seeking to invalidate the law .

Although the final numbers aren’t in yet, it looks like the 2020 election will deliver a divided Congress to whichever party claims the White House.
Democratic hopes for a “blue wave” fell by the wayside pretty quickly Tuesday night, and it now seems likely that Democrats will keep control of the House while Republicans will maintain their majority in Senate following big wins for a handful of GOP incumbents in some closely watched races, including Susan Collins in Maine, Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.
And while former vice president Joe Biden now appears to have an easier path to 270 Electoral College votes than President Donald Trump, without unified control of the government, either man will have a tough time advancing his agenda.
The most likely outcome in numerous important policy areas is a continuation of the status quo, with little room for major changes. “[F]or now, the main takeaway appears to be that whoever wins the presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress,” Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics wrote Wednesday.
Here’s how a divided government could play out on some key issues.
Smaller coronavirus stimulus: Democrats have been seeking a coronavirus package worth at least $2 trillion, and a blue wave could have produced legislation totaling even more. But with the Senate in Republican hands, the stimulus will likely be much smaller.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) — who cruised to reelection and is expected to return as leader, assuming Republicans maintain control — said Wednesday that an aid package would be a top priority, even before the next administration is sworn in, and that he was open to including aid for state and local governments, a key point of disagreement in previous negotiations.
“We need another rescue package,” McConnell said. “The Senate goes back into session next Monday. Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election. And I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.”
Whether Trump would be interested in signing such a bill remains an open question, especially if he loses. But regardless of whether a stimulus package is sent to a Trump or Biden White House, it will almost certainly be smaller than it would have been had Democrats managed to pull off a clean sweep.
“With Republicans still in charge in the Senate, we’d be surprised to see a stimulus bill early next year much in excess of $500 billion, far less than the $2 trillion we expected if Democrats had won,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Wednesday.
The markets sent signals Wednesday that traders were adjusting to the prospect of a smaller stimulus. “The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen by about 10bp since the results started coming out overnight ... and the yields of other high-grade government bonds have fallen too,” Goltermann of Capital Economics said. “The expectations of a big post-election fiscal deal had been a key factor pushing US bond yields higher over the past few weeks.”
No big changes for tax policy: Joe Biden wants to increase taxes on businesses and the wealthy in order to pay for some of his ambitious agenda, which includes huge spending increases on health care, education and green energy. But a Senate controlled by McConnell is very unlikely to approve such changes, which include reversing some of the tax cuts Republicans passed in 2017.
Similarly, a Trump administration would have a difficult time passing more tax cuts with Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in control of the House.
Smaller tweaks for health care: Biden has proposed expanding the Affordable Care Act, but a divided Congress probably eliminates that possibility.
“If Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, Biden's more expansive plans for addressing health care affordability by expanding ACA subsidies and adding a public option seem dead in the water,” Larry Levitt of the Kaiser Family Foundation said.
Biden could still make numerous tweaks to the health care system through executive actions, just as Trump has done. Levitt listed a few of those potential changes: “Put scientists front and center, Extend ACA open enrollment, Reinstate ACA outreach funding, Limit short-term plans that don’t cover pre-existing conditions, Undo family planning funding restrictions.”
Biden would not be able to eliminate the threat to the Affordable Care Act posed by a lawsuit seeking to invalidate the law.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-06--Pelosi and McConnell Clash Over Coronavirus Stimulus

The election may have changed the political landscape in Washington , D.C. , but even before the results are final , congressional leaders and the Trump administration signaled Friday that one thing hasn ’ t changed : the partisan stalemate surrounding another coronavirus stimulus bill .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) again called for a smaller , targeted relief package , saying that the October jobs report released Friday — which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to 6.9 % — indicated that narrow legislation is all that ’ s needed .
( See below for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Our economy is really moving to get back on its feet .
That I think clearly ought to affect what size of any rescue package we additionally do , ” McConnell said at a news conference in Kentucky .
“ I do think we need another one , but I think it reinforces the argument that I ’ ve been making for the last few months that something smaller — rather than throwing another $ 3 trillion at this issue — is more appropriate , with it highly targeted towards things that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which we all know is not going away until we get a vaccine.
” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that , given stronger-than-expected economic data , the Trump administration — which had shifted positions over weeks of negotiations on another stimulus bill , sometimes from one day to the next — would oppose a package along the lines of the roughly $ 2 trillion deal that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had been negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) .
“ We ’ re not interested in , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Kudlow said , calling instead for a “ targeted package to specific areas.
” Pelosi has for months rejected that approach , and she did so again on Friday .
“ It doesn ’ t appeal to me at all because they still have not agreed to crush the virus , ” Pelosi said , adding , “ that isn ’ t something we should be looking at.
” In a statement , the speaker said that the economic data and the surge in coronavirus cases called for a more comprehensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stuck in long-term unemployment , a million fewer teachers and education jobs compared to a year ago , nearly 8 million people having fallen into poverty and up to 17 million children food insecure , we must crush the virus and protect the lives and livelihoods of the American people.
” She called for Republicans to return to the negotiating table .
What ’ s next : With lawmakers set to return to the capital next week for a lame-duck session of Congress , the Trump administration is indicating that it will let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Pelosi rather than have Mnuchin resume talks , The Washington Post ’ s Erica Werner reports .
McConnell said this week that he could back some aid to state and local governments , a Democratic demand that had been a major sticking point in Pelosi ’ s negotiations with the administration .
“ But with McConnell and Pelosi so far apart at the outset , it ’ s unclear where compromise might lie — and highly uncertain what Trump might be willing to sign on his way out of office , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hinge in part on a Dec. 11 deadline when government funding runs out and a new spending bill will have to pass to avert a government shutdown.
” Election uncertainty may still loom over any talks , too .
While Republicans appear likely to keep control of the Senate , Democrats still have a chance to wrest it away , depending on the outcome of two January runoff elections in Georgia .
Those races , and the prospect that Joe Biden will be inaugurated in late January , may make Democrats less likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ duck .
Pelosi announced that she ’ s running for another term as speaker and she told reporters Friday that she saw her leverage in coronavirus relief talks increasing , rejecting that idea that the election would force Democrats to swallow a narrower bill .
“ She exuded confidence in a Biden presidency , telling reporters once he ’ s inaugurated he would be able to use the bully pulpit to shepherd a large spending bill that includes infrastructure construction -- even through a Senate continuing under Republican control , ” Bloomberg News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big jobs bill , ” Pelosi reportedly said .
“ Now we have the upper hand.
” Republicans obviously see it much differently .

The election may have changed the political landscape in Washington, D.C., but even before the results are final, congressional leaders and the Trump administration signaled Friday that one thing hasn’t changed: the partisan stalemate surrounding another coronavirus stimulus bill.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) again called for a smaller, targeted relief package, saying that the October jobs report released Friday — which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to 6.9% — indicated that narrow legislation is all that’s needed. (See below for more on the jobs report.)
“Our economy is really moving to get back on its feet. That I think clearly ought to affect what size of any rescue package we additionally do,” McConnell said at a news conference in Kentucky. “I do think we need another one, but I think it reinforces the argument that I’ve been making for the last few months that something smaller — rather than throwing another $3 trillion at this issue — is more appropriate, with it highly targeted towards things that are directly related to the coronavirus, which we all know is not going away until we get a vaccine.”
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that, given stronger-than-expected economic data, the Trump administration — which had shifted positions over weeks of negotiations on another stimulus bill, sometimes from one day to the next — would oppose a package along the lines of the roughly $2 trillion deal that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had been negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
“We’re not interested in, you know, two or three trillion,” Kudlow said, calling instead for a “targeted package to specific areas.”
Pelosi has for months rejected that approach, and she did so again on Friday. “It doesn’t appeal to me at all because they still have not agreed to crush the virus,” Pelosi said, adding, “that isn’t something we should be looking at.”
In a statement, the speaker said that the economic data and the surge in coronavirus cases called for a more comprehensive response: “With millions more Americans stuck in long-term unemployment, a million fewer teachers and education jobs compared to a year ago, nearly 8 million people having fallen into poverty and up to 17 million children food insecure, we must crush the virus and protect the lives and livelihoods of the American people.” She called for Republicans to return to the negotiating table.
What’s next: With lawmakers set to return to the capital next week for a lame-duck session of Congress, the Trump administration is indicating that it will let McConnell be the point person for negotiations with Pelosi rather than have Mnuchin resume talks, The Washington Post’s Erica Werner reports. McConnell said this week that he could back some aid to state and local governments, a Democratic demand that had been a major sticking point in Pelosi’s negotiations with the administration.
“But with McConnell and Pelosi so far apart at the outset, it’s unclear where compromise might lie — and highly uncertain what Trump might be willing to sign on his way out of office,” Werner writes. “The negotiations might hinge in part on a Dec. 11 deadline when government funding runs out and a new spending bill will have to pass to avert a government shutdown.”
Election uncertainty may still loom over any talks, too. While Republicans appear likely to keep control of the Senate, Democrats still have a chance to wrest it away, depending on the outcome of two January runoff elections in Georgia. Those races, and the prospect that Joe Biden will be inaugurated in late January, may make Democrats less likely to compromise with McConnell during the lame duck.
Pelosi announced that she’s running for another term as speaker and she told reporters Friday that she saw her leverage in coronavirus relief talks increasing, rejecting that idea that the election would force Democrats to swallow a narrower bill. “She exuded confidence in a Biden presidency, telling reporters once he’s inaugurated he would be able to use the bully pulpit to shepherd a large spending bill that includes infrastructure construction -- even through a Senate continuing under Republican control,” Bloomberg News reports.
“The public wants a big jobs bill,” Pelosi reportedly said. “Now we have the upper hand.”
Republicans obviously see it much differently.


thefiscaltimes--2020-11-06--Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.9% as US Reclaims Half the Jobs Lost to Coronavirus

The U.S. economy added 638,000 nonfarm jobs in October and the unemployment rate fell a full percentage from the month before , down to 6.9 % , the Department of Labor announced Friday .
“ These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) pandemic and efforts to contain it , ” the department said .
“ In October , notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality , professional and business services , retail trade , and construction .
Employment in government declined.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a stronger-than-expected economy in October .
“ Progress in the U.S. labor market is holding up as household savings help fuel spending and business investment rebounds , putting the economy in better shape than many analysts expected just six months ago , ” Bloomberg ’ s Katia Dmitrieva wrote .
Economist Tim Duy noted that the labor force participation rate rose in October , another sign that the economy continues to strengthen .
Although Congress cut off a firehose of fiscal support in the form of enhanced unemployment benefits three months ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t seem to notice , ” Duy said , suggesting that demand will continue to grow , even without additional federal help .
Some bad news : Other experts were less optimistic , finding signs of weakness despite the solid topline numbers .
“ Today 's jobs report shows that our recovery is losing momentum , ” wrote Ernie Tedeschi of the research firm Evercore ISI .
“ Every month since July has seen successively slower growth , and slower growth raises the risk that we get knocked down by adverse circumstances.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big increase in the number of long-term unemployed , which increased by more than a million to 3.56 million .
About one third of the roughly 11 million unemployed workers in the U.S. have been out of work for more than six months , and their number is growing rapidly .
And the sheer number of unemployed workers is still overwhelming .
Economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute noted that the economy is still roughly 10 million jobs shy of the employment level in February , before the pandemic took hold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs are in state and local governments , mostly in education .
A long road back : Economist Jason Furman – who argues that a more “ realistic unemployment rate ” that takes into account classification errors and changes in the labor force participation rate would register 8.4 % in October – said Friday that the latest report “ is consistent with a ‘ partial bounce back ’ in the labor market , as the unemployment rate falls quickly at first , followed by a ‘ slog ’ where the unemployment rate slowly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a prolonged period.
” The bounce back could take a long time , Furman said , especially as the coronavirus continues to depress economic activity for the foreseeable future .

The U.S. economy added 638,000 nonfarm jobs in October and the unemployment rate fell a full percentage from the month before, down to 6.9%, the Department of Labor announced Friday.
“These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it,” the department said. “In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined.”
Some good news: The results point to a stronger-than-expected economy in October. “Progress in the U.S. labor market is holding up as household savings help fuel spending and business investment rebounds, putting the economy in better shape than many analysts expected just six months ago,” Bloomberg’s Katia Dmitrieva wrote.
Economist Tim Duy noted that the labor force participation rate rose in October, another sign that the economy continues to strengthen. Although Congress cut off a firehose of fiscal support in the form of enhanced unemployment benefits three months ago, “the labor market doesn’t seem to notice,” Duy said, suggesting that demand will continue to grow, even without additional federal help.
Some bad news: Other experts were less optimistic, finding signs of weakness despite the solid topline numbers. “Today's jobs report shows that our recovery is losing momentum,” wrote Ernie Tedeschi of the research firm Evercore ISI. “Every month since July has seen successively slower growth, and slower growth raises the risk that we get knocked down by adverse circumstances.”
Bloomberg’s Dmitrieva pointed out the big increase in the number of long-term unemployed, which increased by more than a million to 3.56 million. About one third of the roughly 11 million unemployed workers in the U.S. have been out of work for more than six months, and their number is growing rapidly.
And the sheer number of unemployed workers is still overwhelming. Economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute noted that the economy is still roughly 10 million jobs shy of the employment level in February, before the pandemic took hold. About 1.3 million of those lost jobs are in state and local governments, mostly in education.
A long road back: Economist Jason Furman – who argues that a more “realistic unemployment rate” that takes into account classification errors and changes in the labor force participation rate would register 8.4% in October – said Friday that the latest report “is consistent with a ‘partial bounce back’ in the labor market, as the unemployment rate falls quickly at first, followed by a ‘slog’ where the unemployment rate slowly falls but remains at an elevated level for a prolonged period.” The bounce back could take a long time, Furman said, especially as the coronavirus continues to depress economic activity for the foreseeable future.