thefiscaltimes--2020-10-02--Job Growth Slows, Sparking New Worries About Economy

The unemployment rate dropped to 7.9 % in September , the Labor Department announced Friday , as total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 during the month .
But what under normal circumstances would be blockbuster job numbers were seen as a disappointment , falling well below expectations of 800,000 while providing fresh evidence that the recovery is losing momentum as fiscal support runs dry and the coronavirus continues to dampen economic activity .
Job growth is clearly slowing , falling from 1.8 million in July and 1.5 million in August , raising new concerns about how long it could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs lost in the coronavirus recession .
The economy has recovered about half of those jobs so far , leaving the labor market nearly 11 million in the hole .
Some economists now say it could take until 2022 or even 2023 to recover them all .
“ The jobs number is positive , but it ’ s flashing warning signs , ” Ernie Tedeschi of Evercore ISI told The Washington Post .
“ It ’ s decelerating fast , and that worries me .
If jobs growth is slowing , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer to recover from this recession . ''
Some jobs aren ’ t coming back .
The number of workers saying their jobs were gone for good rose from 3.4 million in August to 3.8 million in September .
And the number of long-term unemployed rose by 781,000 , the largest monthly increase on that variable since data collection began in 1948 .
Labor force shrinks : The half a percentage point drop in the unemployment rate was impressive , but it fell not because there was such a surge in jobs but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking for work , with the labor force participation rate falling by 0.3 points to 61.4 % .
Women were particularly hard hit , with more than 860,000 female workers leaving the labor force in September , the great majority of the 1.1 million who dropped out .
“ A drop in participation is unequivocally bad for the labor market outlook , ” said Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House .
“ It has the potential to prolong the overall recovery as workers are more disengaged with the labor market.
” An “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , economic research director at the job search site Indeed , said the latest employment report is “ massively concerning .
We are not where we need to be , nor are we moving fast enough in the right direction as we head into fall.
” The numbers provide “ an illusion of progress at a time when we needed accelerating gains in the labor market .
The number of jobs added this month is just not enough , ” he said .
Hopes for more stimulus : The lack of additional fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gus Faucher , chief economist at PNC .
“ The low-hanging fruit has been picked , and the job market recovery will slow further going forward , ” he said .
“ A surge in coronavirus cases in late 2020 could lead to further business closures .
An inability to pass additional fiscal stimulus — including aid to households , small and mid-size businesses , and state and local governments — is another downside risk.
” Mark Zandi , chief economist of Moody ’ s Analytics , said the report “ is just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery .
It ’ s going to be a slog .
The economy risks stalling out without any additional fiscal support .
”

The unemployment rate dropped to 7.9% in September, the Labor Department announced Friday, as total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 during the month.
But what under normal circumstances would be blockbuster job numbers were seen as a disappointment, falling well below expectations of 800,000 while providing fresh evidence that the recovery is losing momentum as fiscal support runs dry and the coronavirus continues to dampen economic activity.
Job growth is clearly slowing, falling from 1.8 million in July and 1.5 million in August, raising new concerns about how long it could take to recover the roughly 22 million jobs lost in the coronavirus recession. The economy has recovered about half of those jobs so far, leaving the labor market nearly 11 million in the hole. Some economists now say it could take until 2022 or even 2023 to recover them all.
“The jobs number is positive, but it’s flashing warning signs,” Ernie Tedeschi of Evercore ISI told The Washington Post. “It’s decelerating fast, and that worries me. If jobs growth is slowing, it’s going to take us longer and longer to recover from this recession."
Some jobs aren’t coming back. The number of workers saying their jobs were gone for good rose from 3.4 million in August to 3.8 million in September. And the number of long-term unemployed rose by 781,000, the largest monthly increase on that variable since data collection began in 1948.
Labor force shrinks: The half a percentage point drop in the unemployment rate was impressive, but it fell not because there was such a surge in jobs but because so many people have given up looking for work, with the labor force participation rate falling by 0.3 points to 61.4%. Women were particularly hard hit, with more than 860,000 female workers leaving the labor force in September, the great majority of the 1.1 million who dropped out.
“A drop in participation is unequivocally bad for the labor market outlook,” said Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House. “It has the potential to prolong the overall recovery as workers are more disengaged with the labor market.”
An “illusion of progress”: Nick Bunker, economic research director at the job search site Indeed, said the latest employment report is “massively concerning. We are not where we need to be, nor are we moving fast enough in the right direction as we head into fall.” The numbers provide “an illusion of progress at a time when we needed accelerating gains in the labor market. The number of jobs added this month is just not enough,” he said.
Hopes for more stimulus: The lack of additional fiscal support is a real concern, said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC. “The low-hanging fruit has been picked, and the job market recovery will slow further going forward,” he said. “A surge in coronavirus cases in late 2020 could lead to further business closures. An inability to pass additional fiscal stimulus — including aid to households, small and mid-size businesses, and state and local governments — is another downside risk.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said the report “is just proof positive that this is no V-shaped recovery. It’s going to be a slog. The economy risks stalling out without any additional fiscal support.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-07--Trump's Confusing U-Turn on Coronavirus Stimulus

Maybe it ’ s a negotiating strategy , maybe it ’ s the meds , maybe it ’ s just chaos .
Whatever the reason , President Trump on Tuesday night called on Congress to pass a number of narrower coronavirus relief bills — just hours after he abruptly pulled the plug on talks for a more comprehensive package .
Trump ’ s confusing tweets : As part of another epic tweetstorm , Trump said that the House and Senate should “ IMMEDIATELY ” approve bills to provide $ 25 billion in payroll support for airline workers , $ 135 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another round of $ 1,200 direct payments to American households .
He followed up Wednesday morning by retweeting his own message on stimulus checks from Tuesday night , urging House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) to “ Move Fast , I Am Waiting To Sign !
” But those exhortations all came after Tuesday afternoon tweets in which Trump said he had directed his team to stop negotiating until after the election .
So are stimulus talks off or on ?
Trump ’ s backtracking sowed some confusion about the state of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reversing himself , perhaps after being spooked by the stock market ’ s reaction to his initial announcement or by the prospect of taking the blame for the lack of another stimulus package .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) backed Trump ’ s decision to halt talks on a larger deal , but some other Republicans disagreed with the move .
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine , facing a tough reelection race , said waiting until after the election was a “ huge mistake.
” Tony Fratto , a former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is now a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies in Washington , told The New York Times that Trump had given Democrats a gift : “ Republicans can try to explain that the blame is on Democrats .
Democrats only have to hold up Trump ’ s tweet , taking the blame himself.
” What the White House is thinking : Mark Meadows , the White House chief of staff , said Wednesday morning that he and the president had spoken to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about pursuing smaller , separate bills .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ talking about what we could do with stand-alone bills to help airlines , small businesses and the American people with stimulus checks , so hopefully we can convince Speaker Pelosi to do something on a stand-alone basis , ” Meadows told “ Fox & Friends.
” Asked about warnings from the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the economy needs another shot of stimulus — and about how it would be to the president ’ s political advantage to have another relief package passed — Meadows said the talks with Pelosi weren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wide gap that remained on aid to state and local governments , which Democrats say is needed to protect jobs but Trump has derided as bailouts for blue states .
“ We ’ re still willing to be engaged , but I ’ m not optimistic for a comprehensive deal , ” Meadows said .
“ I am optimistic that there ’ s about 10 things that we could do on a piecemeal basis if the speaker is willing to put it before her members.
” Pelosi had questioned whether the steroids Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were affecting his decision-making ( some White House staffers reportedly wondered the same thing ) .
But she suggested Wednesday that his backtracking was all about shifting blame .
“ Well , it 's hard to see any clear , sane path in anything that he 's doing .
But the fact is that he saw the political downside of his statement of walking away from the negotiations , ” she said in an interview on ABC ’ s “ The View.
” “ He ’ s rebounding from a terrible mistake he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congress are going down the drain with him on that.
” Pelosi did speak with Mnuchin on Wednesday morning , and the Treasury secretary reportedly asked about a relief bill for airlines .
The conversation did not go well .
Pelosi , according to a spokesperson , reminded Mnuchin that Republicans had blocked just such a bill on Friday and asked him to review that legislation “ so that they could have an informed conversation.
” What it all means : In some ways , we ’ re now back to where we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House was pushing a piecemeal deal and Pelosi was insisting that the pandemic and its economic wreckage required a more comprehensive package .
Only now there ’ s less time to get something done , and the GOP has other items on its agenda .
“ We ’ ve only got four weeks to the election , and we have a justice of the Supreme Court to get passed .
It ’ s too close to the election — not enough time to get stuff done at this stage in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC .
“ What the president was saying is , ‘ We ’ re too far apart for a gigantic bill.
’ ” A bill to help airlines and thousands of industry workers facing furloughs may still be possible , but a larger package appears dead for now , unless Trump has another sudden change of heart and decides to squeeze rank-and-file Republicans who remain opposed to additional spending .
“ It became very obvious over the last couple days that a comprehensive bill was just going to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not have much Republican support at all , ” Meadows told reporters .
“ It was more of a Democrat-led bill , which would have been problematic more so in the Senate than in the House .
”

Maybe it’s a negotiating strategy, maybe it’s the meds, maybe it’s just chaos. Whatever the reason, President Trump on Tuesday night called on Congress to pass a number of narrower coronavirus relief bills — just hours after he abruptly pulled the plug on talks for a more comprehensive package.
Trump’s confusing tweets: As part of another epic tweetstorm, Trump said that the House and Senate should “IMMEDIATELY” approve bills to provide $25 billion in payroll support for airline workers, $135 billion in aid to small businesses and another round of $1,200 direct payments to American households. He followed up Wednesday morning by retweeting his own message on stimulus checks from Tuesday night, urging House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to “Move Fast, I Am Waiting To Sign!” But those exhortations all came after Tuesday afternoon tweets in which Trump said he had directed his team to stop negotiating until after the election.
So are stimulus talks off or on? Trump’s backtracking sowed some confusion about the state of the talks and whether the president was reversing himself, perhaps after being spooked by the stock market’s reaction to his initial announcement or by the prospect of taking the blame for the lack of another stimulus package.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) backed Trump’s decision to halt talks on a larger deal, but some other Republicans disagreed with the move. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, facing a tough reelection race, said waiting until after the election was a “huge mistake.”
Tony Fratto, a former aide to President George W. Bush, who is now a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies in Washington, told The New York Times that Trump had given Democrats a gift: “Republicans can try to explain that the blame is on Democrats. Democrats only have to hold up Trump’s tweet, taking the blame himself.”
What the White House is thinking: Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, said Wednesday morning that he and the president had spoken to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about pursuing smaller, separate bills. “The secretary and I have been talking about what we could do with stand-alone bills to help airlines, small businesses and the American people with stimulus checks, so hopefully we can convince Speaker Pelosi to do something on a stand-alone basis,” Meadows told “Fox & Friends.”
Asked about warnings from the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the economy needs another shot of stimulus — and about how it would be to the president’s political advantage to have another relief package passed — Meadows said the talks with Pelosi weren’t leading anywhere. He pointed to the wide gap that remained on aid to state and local governments, which Democrats say is needed to protect jobs but Trump has derided as bailouts for blue states.
“We’re still willing to be engaged, but I’m not optimistic for a comprehensive deal,” Meadows said. “I am optimistic that there’s about 10 things that we could do on a piecemeal basis if the speaker is willing to put it before her members.”
Pelosi had questioned whether the steroids Trump is taking to treat his Covid-19 infection were affecting his decision-making (some White House staffers reportedly wondered the same thing). But she suggested Wednesday that his backtracking was all about shifting blame.
“Well, it's hard to see any clear, sane path in anything that he's doing. But the fact is that he saw the political downside of his statement of walking away from the negotiations,” she said in an interview on ABC’s “The View.” “He’s rebounding from a terrible mistake he made yesterday, and the Republicans in Congress are going down the drain with him on that.”
Pelosi did speak with Mnuchin on Wednesday morning, and the Treasury secretary reportedly asked about a relief bill for airlines. The conversation did not go well. Pelosi, according to a spokesperson, reminded Mnuchin that Republicans had blocked just such a bill on Friday and asked him to review that legislation “so that they could have an informed conversation.”
What it all means: In some ways, we’re now back to where we were a few months ago, when the White House was pushing a piecemeal deal and Pelosi was insisting that the pandemic and its economic wreckage required a more comprehensive package. Only now there’s less time to get something done, and the GOP has other items on its agenda. “We’ve only got four weeks to the election, and we have a justice of the Supreme Court to get passed. It’s too close to the election — not enough time to get stuff done at this stage in the game,” top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC. “What the president was saying is, ‘We’re too far apart for a gigantic bill.’”
A bill to help airlines and thousands of industry workers facing furloughs may still be possible, but a larger package appears dead for now, unless Trump has another sudden change of heart and decides to squeeze rank-and-file Republicans who remain opposed to additional spending. “It became very obvious over the last couple days that a comprehensive bill was just going to get to the point where it really did not have much Republican support at all,” Meadows told reporters. “It was more of a Democrat-led bill, which would have been problematic more so in the Senate than in the House.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-07--Both Trump and Biden Plans Would Push Debt Higher: CRFB

Each set of proposals laid out in the campaigns of President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden would increase @ @ @ @ @ $ 5 trillion over a decade , according to a new analysis from the Committee @ @ @ @ @ .
There is considerable uncertainty around the plans – CRFB said it found “ more @ @ @ @ @ – so the analysis provides low-cost , central and high-cost estimates .
“ Under our @ @ @ @ @ President Donald Trump ’ s campaign plan would increase the debt by $ 4.95 trillion @ @ @ @ @ Vice President Biden ’ s plan would increase the debt by $ 5.60 trillion , @ @ @ @ @ debt-to-GDP ratio ( see the chart below ) would also rise in similar ways .
@ @ @ @ @ 98 percent of Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) today to 125 percent by 2030 @ @ @ @ @ percent under Vice President Biden , compared to 109 percent under current law .
”

Each set of proposals laid out in the campaigns of President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden would increase the national debt by about $5 trillion over a decade, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
There is considerable uncertainty around the plans – CRFB said it found “more than 800 distinct proposals” – so the analysis provides low-cost, central and high-cost estimates. “Under our central estimate, we find President Donald Trump’s campaign plan would increase the debt by $4.95 trillion over ten years and former Vice President Biden’s plan would increase the debt by $5.60 trillion,” CRFB said.
The debt-to-GDP ratio (see the chart below) would also rise in similar ways. “Debt would rise from 98 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) today to 125 percent by 2030 under President Trump and 128 percent under Vice President Biden, compared to 109 percent under current law.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-06--Powell Warns Economy Could Falter Without More Help

The recovery still has “ a long way to go ” and the economy continues to need significant monetary and fiscal support , Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday , in what many saw as a warning to lawmakers in Washington .
The failure to provide such support “ would lead to a weak recovery , creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses , ” he warned .
Speaking to a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics , Powell said the main risk right now is doing too little to sustain the recovery , and that policymakers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed , they will not go to waste , ” Powell said .
“ The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.
” Applauds previous efforts .
Powell hailed the “ truly extraordinary ” fiscal response in the early days of the pandemic .
“ The unanimous passage of the CARES Act and three other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and April established wide-ranging programs that are expected to provide roughly $ 3 trillion in economic support overall—by far the largest and most innovative fiscal response to an economic crisis since the Great Depression , ” he said .
But warns of the risks of slowing .
Although the recovery has moved faster than many experts predicted so far , Powell warned that the outlook remains “ highly uncertain ” and that the pandemic ’ s continued fallout could result in a longer-than-expected path to full recovery , if not another recession .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pace of improvement over time could trigger typical recessionary dynamics , as weakness feeds on weakness , ” he said .
“ Over time , household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise , harming the productive capacity of the economy , and holding back wage growth.
” Powell noted that the suffering would not be evenly distributed .
“ A long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy , ” he said .
“ That would be tragic , especially in light of our country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years leading up to the pandemic.
” Need to act now .
“ That is a lot of the urgency we ’ ve been feeling — to do what we can as quickly as we can , so we can avoid those problems , ” Powell said .
“ It ’ s now when we need to be working on that problem.
” Pelosi quickly endorses .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) cited the Fed chief ’ s remarks as she continued to push for a new stimulus package Tuesday morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had pulled the plug on the negotiations .
“ Chairman Powell ’ s warning could not be more clear : robust action is immediately needed to avert economic catastrophe from the devastation of the coronavirus pandemic , ” Pelosi said in a statement Tuesday .
“ It is long overdue for Republicans to join us in passing a bill that meets the needs of the American people by protecting our heroes , crushing the virus and putting money in the pockets of workers .
”

The recovery still has “a long way to go” and the economy continues to need significant monetary and fiscal support, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday, in what many saw as a warning to lawmakers in Washington. The failure to provide such support “would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” he warned.
Speaking to a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said the main risk right now is doing too little to sustain the recovery, and that policymakers shouldn’t worry about overdoing it.
“Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste,” Powell said. “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.”
Applauds previous efforts. Powell hailed the “truly extraordinary” fiscal response in the early days of the pandemic. “The unanimous passage of the CARES Act and three other bills passed with broad support in March and April established wide-ranging programs that are expected to provide roughly $3 trillion in economic support overall—by far the largest and most innovative fiscal response to an economic crisis since the Great Depression,” he said.
But warns of the risks of slowing. Although the recovery has moved faster than many experts predicted so far, Powell warned that the outlook remains “highly uncertain” and that the pandemic’s continued fallout could result in a longer-than-expected path to full recovery, if not another recession. “[A] prolonged slowing in the pace of improvement over time could trigger typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on weakness,” he said. “Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy, and holding back wage growth.”
Powell noted that the suffering would not be evenly distributed. “A long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy,” he said. “That would be tragic, especially in light of our country's progress on these issues in the years leading up to the pandemic.”
Need to act now. “That is a lot of the urgency we’ve been feeling — to do what we can as quickly as we can, so we can avoid those problems,” Powell said. “It’s now when we need to be working on that problem.”
Pelosi quickly endorses. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) cited the Fed chief’s remarks as she continued to push for a new stimulus package Tuesday morning, before President Trump announced that he had pulled the plug on the negotiations. “Chairman Powell’s warning could not be more clear: robust action is immediately needed to avert economic catastrophe from the devastation of the coronavirus pandemic,” Pelosi said in a statement Tuesday. “It is long overdue for Republicans to join us in passing a bill that meets the needs of the American people by protecting our heroes, crushing the virus and putting money in the pockets of workers.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-05--‘Doomed to Fail’: Why a $4 Trillion Bailout May Not Be Enough

The roughly $ 4 trillion spent in response to the coronavirus pandemic has become the costliest economic rescue effort in U.S. history , surpassing even the staggering cost of 18 years of war in Afghanistan .
But according to an analysis in The Washington Post Monday , a substantial portion of the spending hasn ’ t gotten to the institutions and individuals that need it most , leaving millions of Americans exposed to an ongoing viral pandemic in an economy that is still struggling to get back on its feet .
Here ’ s how the approximately $ 4 trillion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to the Post analysis , which is based on data from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget : • $ 2.3 trillion for businesses , including $ 651 billion in tax breaks , $ 454 billion for the Federal Reserve for market stabilization and $ 670 billion for small business assistance .
• $ 884 billion for individuals , including $ 293 billion for stimulus checks and $ 286 billion in enhanced unemployment benefits .
• $ 634 billion to directly fight the pandemic , including money for testing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state governments and agencies , to help cover the cost of protective equipment and first responders , among other things .
Who gets help ?
One problem with the bailout is that a good portion of the funds have been used to support businesses that may not have needed much assistance , including companies that built up cash cushions even as they laid off workers .
“ The legislation bestowed billions in benefits on companies and wealthy individuals largely unscathed by the pandemic , ” the Post said , “ while at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers to expire over the summer and leaving some local public health efforts struggling for money to conduct testing and other prevention efforts.
” The wrong timeframe .
Another major problem is that while lawmakers responded quickly in the early days of the pandemic , pumping hundreds of billions into the economy to keep businesses and individuals afloat , they failed to recognize that the coronavirus required a long-term response .
“ Too many people were fighting the last war and not recognizing the new circumstances we were facing , ” economist Paul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missed this point : For any other recession , this may have been a very good response .
But because of this virus , it was doomed to fail.
” The only way to end the recession , Romer and many other experts have said , is to get control of the virus .
Failure to do so means the recession can not end .
“ This is why the stimulus money was a waste : It got people back out there , but it also increased the rate of spread of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It was really totally ineffective to stimulate the economy without implementing measures to restrain the spread of the virus.
” Read the full analysis at The Washington Post .

The roughly $4 trillion spent in response to the coronavirus pandemic has become the costliest economic rescue effort in U.S. history, surpassing even the staggering cost of 18 years of war in Afghanistan. But according to an analysis in The Washington Post Monday, a substantial portion of the spending hasn’t gotten to the institutions and individuals that need it most, leaving millions of Americans exposed to an ongoing viral pandemic in an economy that is still struggling to get back on its feet.
Here’s how the approximately $4 trillion spent on the coronavirus bailout breaks down, according to the Post analysis, which is based on data from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:
$2.3 trillion for businesses, including $651 billion in tax breaks, $454 billion for the Federal Reserve for market stabilization and $670 billion for small business assistance.
including $651 billion in tax breaks, $454 billion for the Federal Reserve for market stabilization and $670 billion for small business assistance. $884 billion for individuals, including $293 billion for stimulus checks and $286 billion in enhanced unemployment benefits.
including $293 billion for stimulus checks and $286 billion in enhanced unemployment benefits. $634 billion to directly fight the pandemic, including money for testing and tracing.
including money for testing and tracing. $253 billion for state governments and agencies, to help cover the cost of protective equipment and first responders, among other things.
Who gets help? One problem with the bailout is that a good portion of the funds have been used to support businesses that may not have needed much assistance, including companies that built up cash cushions even as they laid off workers. “The legislation bestowed billions in benefits on companies and wealthy individuals largely unscathed by the pandemic,” the Post said, “while at the same time allowing special aid for unemployed workers to expire over the summer and leaving some local public health efforts struggling for money to conduct testing and other prevention efforts.”
The wrong timeframe. Another major problem is that while lawmakers responded quickly in the early days of the pandemic, pumping hundreds of billions into the economy to keep businesses and individuals afloat, they failed to recognize that the coronavirus required a long-term response.
“Too many people were fighting the last war and not recognizing the new circumstances we were facing,” economist Paul Romer told the Post. “They missed this point: For any other recession, this may have been a very good response. But because of this virus, it was doomed to fail.”
The only way to end the recession, Romer and many other experts have said, is to get control of the virus. Failure to do so means the recession cannot end.
“This is why the stimulus money was a waste: It got people back out there, but it also increased the rate of spread of the virus,” Romer said. “It was really totally ineffective to stimulate the economy without implementing measures to restrain the spread of the virus.”
Read the full analysis at The Washington Post.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-08--Pelosi Plays Hardball as Coronavirus Stimulus Talks Resume

You could get whiplash following the talks on a coronavirus relief package .
Just two days after President Trump said he instructed his representatives to halt negotiations , the talks are apparently on again .
In a morning interview with the Fox Business Network , Trump said the two sides had resumed discussions .
“ I shut down talks two days ago because they weren ’ t working out .
Now they are starting to work out .
We ’ re starting to have some very productive talks , ” he said , adding that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because it ’ s so good for our country .
We really need it.
” What Trump said : “ We ’ re talking about airlines and we ’ re talking about a bigger deal than airlines .
We ’ re talking about a deal with $ 1,200 per person , we ’ re talking about other things .
But it ’ s not anybody ’ s fault , they were trying to get things , and we were trying to get things and it wasn ’ t going anywhere .
I shut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to play games .
And then we reopened , and I see the markets are doing well , but I think we have a really good chance of doing something . ''
Pelosi plays hardball : The speaker confirmed that talks were ongoing .
“ We ’ re at the table .
We want to continue the conversation .
We ’ ve made some progress .
We ’ re exchanging language .
So we ’ ll see how we connect , ” she said .
But she also slammed Trump for walking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot down the idea of a standalone bill to aid airlines and industry workers facing furloughs .
Pelosi last week asked airlines to delay furloughing thousands of workers , suggesting that Congress would either enact a standalone aid bill for the industry or deliver payroll support as part of a comprehensive deal .
After Republicans on Friday blocked a standalone bill from House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Peter DeFazio ( D-OR ) , Pelosi signaled this week she was still open to providing aid to airlines .
But after some Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help , Pelosi staked out a more hardline position at her Thursday news conference .
“ There is no standalone bill without a bigger bill , ” she said , suggesting that airline relief could be part of a larger package or in addition to it .
McConnell skeptical : Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) , who earlier in the week backed Trump ’ s decision to walk away from talks , said Thursday that another relief package is needed — but that the upcoming elections make reaching a deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no question that the proximity to the election has made this much more challenging , ” McConnell told a press conference in Erlanger , Kentucky .
“ We do agree that another rescue package is needed .
We have vast differences about how much we should spend.
” He added that Pelosi “ insists on an outrageous amount of money.
” Can a deal get done ?
Talks may be back on , but the two sides remain split over a number of issues .
Pelosi , for example , highlighted Democrats ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funds provided for a national coronavirus testing-and-tracing strategy .
With the election just 26 days away , there isn ’ t much time to resolve some significant differences .
Given the challenges , the Trump administration and congressional Republicans have discussed putting forth a new package of their own , which could include $ 1,200 stimulus checks , aid for small businesses and payroll support for airlines , according to The Washington Post .
The bottom line : For now , McConnell may have summed it up best when he said Thursday : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be confusing for all of us to follow .
”

You could get whiplash following the talks on a coronavirus relief package.
Just two days after President Trump said he instructed his representatives to halt negotiations, the talks are apparently on again.
In a morning interview with the Fox Business Network, Trump said the two sides had resumed discussions. “I shut down talks two days ago because they weren’t working out. Now they are starting to work out. We’re starting to have some very productive talks,” he said, adding that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants another stimulus bill, too, “because it’s so good for our country. We really need it.”
What Trump said: “We’re talking about airlines and we’re talking about a bigger deal than airlines. We’re talking about a deal with $1,200 per person, we’re talking about other things. But it’s not anybody’s fault, they were trying to get things, and we were trying to get things and it wasn’t going anywhere. I shut it down. I don’t want to play games. And then we reopened, and I see the markets are doing well, but I think we have a really good chance of doing something."
Pelosi plays hardball: The speaker confirmed that talks were ongoing. “We’re at the table. We want to continue the conversation. We’ve made some progress. We’re exchanging language. So we’ll see how we connect,” she said.
But she also slammed Trump for walking away from talks earlier, and she shot down the idea of a standalone bill to aid airlines and industry workers facing furloughs.
Pelosi last week asked airlines to delay furloughing thousands of workers, suggesting that Congress would either enact a standalone aid bill for the industry or deliver payroll support as part of a comprehensive deal. After Republicans on Friday blocked a standalone bill from House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Peter DeFazio (D-OR), Pelosi signaled this week she was still open to providing aid to airlines. But after some Democrats reportedly questioned why only airlines should get help, Pelosi staked out a more hardline position at her Thursday news conference.
“There is no standalone bill without a bigger bill,” she said, suggesting that airline relief could be part of a larger package or in addition to it.
McConnell skeptical: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who earlier in the week backed Trump’s decision to walk away from talks, said Thursday that another relief package is needed — but that the upcoming elections make reaching a deal more difficult.
“There’s no question that the proximity to the election has made this much more challenging,” McConnell told a press conference in Erlanger, Kentucky. “We do agree that another rescue package is needed. We have vast differences about how much we should spend.”
He added that Pelosi “insists on an outrageous amount of money.”
Can a deal get done? Talks may be back on, but the two sides remain split over a number of issues. Pelosi, for example, highlighted Democrats’ insistence on language preventing Trump from diverting funds provided for a national coronavirus testing-and-tracing strategy. With the election just 26 days away, there isn’t much time to resolve some significant differences. Given the challenges, the Trump administration and congressional Republicans have discussed putting forth a new package of their own, which could include $1,200 stimulus checks, aid for small businesses and payroll support for airlines, according to The Washington Post.
The bottom line: For now, McConnell may have summed it up best when he said Thursday: “The discussion from day to day can be confusing for all of us to follow.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-07--Trump Admin Pushes Federal Bureaucracy ‘Bloat’ to 60-Year High

Despite rhetoric about shrinking government , the Trump administration has presided over an expansion of total federal employment and record levels of bureaucratic bloat , according to a new study from political scientist Paul C. Light of the Brookings Institution and New York University .
President Trump inherited a “ true ” federal workforce of about 9 million – the total of all civil servants , postal workers , active duty military , contractors and grantees – and has added about 2 million more positions over the last four years , Light says .
About half of that growth has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Transportation and Health and Human Services – and includes a record number of contractors , now totaling roughly 5 million .
President Trump inherited a “ true ” federal workforce of about 9 million — the total of all civil servants , postal workers , active duty military , contractors and grantees — and has added about 2 million more positions over the last four years , Light says .
About half of that growth has occurred in just three departments — Defense , Transportation and Health and Human Services — and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of contractors , totaling roughly 5 million .
New layers of bloat .
In addition to the raw numbers , Light also studied the way in which the federal government has added new layers of management over time – the seemingly inevitable bureaucratic expansion that he refers to as “ bloat.
” Light found that instead of reducing the bloat as promised , the Trump administration has added new layers within the bureaucracy and more leaders within each layer .
“ Like branches on a tree , new layers increased the height of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ width , ” Light says .
“ Absent strong oversight and aggressive trimming , this hierarchy grows naturally as Congress creates new positions in the appropriations process , presidents deploy their support staff , civil servants move steadily upward , and new titles such as ‘ chief of staff ’ become de rigueur . ''
The high price of bloat .
The bloat isn ’ t just a fiscal issue .
It also slows the government down and makes it harder to respond to crises , such as the one the county currently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cited by Light : “ COVID-19 showed just how far Americans must go to find accountability in the federal hierarchy .
Healthcare heroes waiting for personal protective equipment faced 18 layers between the top of the Department of Health and Human Services and the PPE at the Strategic National Stockpile .
Small businesses waiting for Paycheck Protection support faced 16 layers between the top of the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration ’ s program office , and families with loved ones in skilled nursing facilities faced 19 layers between the top @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Services and the division of nursing homes at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services .
”

Despite rhetoric about shrinking government, the Trump administration has presided over an expansion of total federal employment and record levels of bureaucratic bloat, according to a new study from political scientist Paul C. Light of the Brookings Institution and New York University.
President Trump inherited a “true” federal workforce of about 9 million – the total of all civil servants, postal workers, active duty military, contractors and grantees – and has added about 2 million more positions over the last four years, Light says. About half of that growth has occurred in just three departments – Defense, Transportation and Health and Human Services – and includes a record number of contractors, now totaling roughly 5 million.
President Trump inherited a “true” federal workforce of about 9 million — the total of all civil servants, postal workers, active duty military, contractors and grantees — and has added about 2 million more positions over the last four years, Light says. About half of that growth has occurred in just three departments — Defense, Transportation and Health and Human Services — and the workforce now includes a record number of contractors, totaling roughly 5 million.
New layers of bloat. In addition to the raw numbers, Light also studied the way in which the federal government has added new layers of management over time – the seemingly inevitable bureaucratic expansion that he refers to as “bloat.” Light found that instead of reducing the bloat as promised, the Trump administration has added new layers within the bureaucracy and more leaders within each layer.
“Like branches on a tree, new layers increased the height of government, while new leaders expanded its width,” Light says. “Absent strong oversight and aggressive trimming, this hierarchy grows naturally as Congress creates new positions in the appropriations process, presidents deploy their support staff, civil servants move steadily upward, and new titles such as ‘chief of staff’ become de rigueur."
The high price of bloat. The bloat isn’t just a fiscal issue. It also slows the government down and makes it harder to respond to crises, such as the one the county currently finds itself in. Some sobering examples cited by Light:
“COVID-19 showed just how far Americans must go to find accountability in the federal hierarchy. Healthcare heroes waiting for personal protective equipment faced 18 layers between the top of the Department of Health and Human Services and the PPE at the Strategic National Stockpile. Small businesses waiting for Paycheck Protection support faced 16 layers between the top of the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration’s program office, and families with loved ones in skilled nursing facilities faced 19 layers between the top of the Department of Health and Human Services and the division of nursing homes at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-09--Trump Approves $1.8 Trillion Stimulus Offer to Pelosi

He calls her a “ nut job.
” She questions his mental health .
Together , they have to work out a roughly $ 2 trillion package to rescue the economy .
It might sound like a pitch for the worst rom-com ever , but it ’ s actually , sadly , the current state of affairs between President Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi .
Just days after cutting off negotiations on a comprehensive coronavirus relief package , Trump on Friday appeared as eager — or desperate — as ever to get a deal done , tweeting : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Go Big !
” Later , in a phone interview with Rush Limbaugh , Trump said : “ I would like to see a bigger stimulus package than , frankly , either the Democrats or the Republicans are offering.
” The president acknowledged that his latest position is “ the exact opposite ” of his previous one .
The White House , reportedly scrambling to revive the talks that appeared dead earlier this week , put together its largest proposal yet for Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to present to Democrats , a $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier $ 1.6 trillion .
The package , approved by Trump , isn ’ t bigger than what Democrats have offered .
House Democrats last week passed a $ 2.2 trillion bill , and Pelosi has steadfastly refused to go below $ 2 trillion , so the two sides still have a way to go on both the overall cost of the package and , more importantly , many of the details .
The White House offer reportedly includes some $ 300 billion for aid to state and local governments , for example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still shy of the $ 436 billion Democrats want .
It also would reportedly extend the duration of the $ 400 in weekly enhanced unemployment benefits the White House has proposed and would provide $ 1,000 per child in direct payments , up from the $ 500 Congress provided in March .
“ Today , the Secretary returned to the table with a proposal that attempted to address some of the concerns Democrats have , ” Pelosi Deputy Chief of Staff Drew Hammill tweeted .
“ Of special concern , is the absence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to crush the virus .
For this and other provisions , we are still awaiting language from the Administration as negotiations on the overall funding amount continue.
” The big question : Even as the negotiators make progress , reaching a deal and getting it passed into law are very different things , as Politico points out .
Senate Republicans , who haven ’ t been part of the ongoing talks , are nowhere near as eager as Trump now says he is to “ go big , ” with many firmly against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 trillion .
“ I ’ ve got a significant percentage of my members who think we ’ ve done enough and who are alarmed by the amount of national debt , ” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) said Thursday .
So even if the White House and Pelosi reach a deal , securing 60 votes in the Senate won ’ t be easy and time will be tight as the Senate prioritizes the confirmation hearings of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court .
“ It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the House with many Republican votes , and it could land in the Senate as late as the end of this month or on the doorstep of early November , ” Politico suggests .
“ What do they do with a bill at that point ?
Probably ignore it.
” Trump could still change all that .
He is reportedly now engaged in the process , reaching out to Republican senators to drum up support .
“ The direct involvement of Trump himself and his willingness to put down an offer far above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dynamic new element to long-stalled negotiations , ” CNN ’ s Phil Mattingly and Ted Barrett wrote .
Even as Trump presses for action , though , McConnell on Friday cast doubt on the chances of something getting done as negotiators “ elbow for political advantage ” before the election .
“ I ’ d like to see us rise above that like we did back in March and April , but I think that ’ s unlikely in the next three weeks , ” he said .
In the meantime , Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s mental faculties , which may not matter but probably doesn ’ t help .
The bottom line : Pelosi and Mnuchin have spoken every day this week and the negotiators reportedly plan on working through this weekend , and potentially through next weekend as well , to reach an agreement .
So there ’ s a renewed sense of urgency to get a deal done and this week ’ s neck-snapping turns have yielded some genuine progress .
But the chances of another stimulus bill passing before the election may not @ @ @ @

He calls her a “nut job.” She questions his mental health. Together, they have to work out a roughly $2 trillion package to rescue the economy.
It might sound like a pitch for the worst rom-com ever, but it’s actually, sadly, the current state of affairs between President Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Just days after cutting off negotiations on a comprehensive coronavirus relief package, Trump on Friday appeared as eager — or desperate — as ever to get a deal done, tweeting: “Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along. Go Big!” Later, in a phone interview with Rush Limbaugh, Trump said: “I would like to see a bigger stimulus package than, frankly, either the Democrats or the Republicans are offering.” The president acknowledged that his latest position is “the exact opposite” of his previous one.
The White House, reportedly scrambling to revive the talks that appeared dead earlier this week, put together its largest proposal yet for Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to present to Democrats, a $1.8 trillion package, up from an earlier $1.6 trillion.
The package, approved by Trump, isn’t bigger than what Democrats have offered. House Democrats last week passed a $2.2 trillion bill, and Pelosi has steadfastly refused to go below $2 trillion, so the two sides still have a way to go on both the overall cost of the package and, more importantly, many of the details. The White House offer reportedly includes some $300 billion for aid to state and local governments, for example — an increase from earlier proposals but still shy of the $436 billion Democrats want. It also would reportedly extend the duration of the $400 in weekly enhanced unemployment benefits the White House has proposed and would provide $1,000 per child in direct payments, up from the $500 Congress provided in March.
“Today, the Secretary returned to the table with a proposal that attempted to address some of the concerns Democrats have,” Pelosi Deputy Chief of Staff Drew Hammill tweeted. “Of special concern, is the absence of an agreement on a strategic plan to crush the virus. For this and other provisions, we are still awaiting language from the Administration as negotiations on the overall funding amount continue.”
The big question: Even as the negotiators make progress, reaching a deal and getting it passed into law are very different things, as Politico points out.
Senate Republicans, who haven’t been part of the ongoing talks, are nowhere near as eager as Trump now says he is to “go big,” with many firmly against a deal on the order of $2 trillion. “I’ve got a significant percentage of my members who think we’ve done enough and who are alarmed by the amount of national debt,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Thursday.
So even if the White House and Pelosi reach a deal, securing 60 votes in the Senate won’t be easy and time will be tight as the Senate prioritizes the confirmation hearings of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. “It’s going to be hard to get through the House with many Republican votes, and it could land in the Senate as late as the end of this month or on the doorstep of early November,” Politico suggests. “What do they do with a bill at that point? Probably ignore it.”
Trump could still change all that. He is reportedly now engaged in the process, reaching out to Republican senators to drum up support. “The direct involvement of Trump himself and his willingness to put down an offer far above the preferences of congressional Republicans adds a dynamic new element to long-stalled negotiations,” CNN’s Phil Mattingly and Ted Barrett wrote.
Even as Trump presses for action, though, McConnell on Friday cast doubt on the chances of something getting done as negotiators “elbow for political advantage” before the election. “I’d like to see us rise above that like we did back in March and April, but I think that’s unlikely in the next three weeks,” he said.
In the meantime, Trump and Pelosi are still questioning each other’s mental faculties, which may not matter but probably doesn’t help.
The bottom line: Pelosi and Mnuchin have spoken every day this week and the negotiators reportedly plan on working through this weekend, and potentially through next weekend as well, to reach an agreement. So there’s a renewed sense of urgency to get a deal done and this week’s neck-snapping turns have yielded some genuine progress. But the chances of another stimulus bill passing before the election may not have shifted much.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-09--Cost of Interest on National Debt Falls Despite Surging Deficit: CBO

The federal government estimates that it has paid billions of dollars less in interest on the national debt in the 2020 fiscal year , despite an increase in the size of the national debt on an annual basis .
“ Net outlays for interest on the public debt decreased by $ 46 billion compared with the same period in 2019 , ” the Congressional Budget Office said in its latest monthly budget review , released Thursday .
The reason for the decrease ?
“ [ L ] ower interest rates and lower inflation more than offset the effects of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former Council of Economic Advisers head Jason Furman for noticing this detail ; we ’ ve replicated his marked-up chart from the CBO report below . )
The Wall Street Journal ’ s Kate Davidson also noted the reduction in outlays on interest : “ Lower interest rates reduced the cost of servicing the debt in fiscal 2020 , giving policy makers more capacity to finance the recovery effort .
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 0.779 % late Thursday , down from 1.732 % a year ago.
” A long-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the consulting firm RSM , said Friday that “ long-term interest rates have undergone a profound structural shift that is likely to keep yields at extremely low levels in the near to medium term.
” According to his firm ’ s model , the long-term downward pressure on interest rates will continue , keeping the 10-year Treasury below 1 % through at least 2025 ( see the chart below ) .
“ Most important , ” Brusuelas said , “ our interest rate models imply that under current economic conditions , debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the economic outlook through an interest rate shock , inflation and lower growth than previously thought.
” As a result , the U.S. likely has more room to spend as necessary to boost an economy still struggling amid the coronavirus pandemic .
Or , as Brusuelas puts it : “ the United States has the fiscal space to adopt the required policy changes to increase productivity and long-term growth.
” A new report from the Brookings Institution also makes the point : '' [ T ] he fact that rates are so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does mean that the amount of debt that the U.S. can easily sustain is a lot larger than people used to think .
That means there should be much less fearmongering about the debt , and more focus on other national priorities .
Furthermore , with interest rates this low , now is a great time to increase public investment , because there are likely many investments the government can make that will yield returns greater than the interest rate that will have to be paid on the debt .
Such investments make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . ''

The federal government estimates that it has paid billions of dollars less in interest on the national debt in the 2020 fiscal year, despite an increase in the size of the national debt on an annual basis.
“Net outlays for interest on the public debt decreased by $46 billion compared with the same period in 2019,” the Congressional Budget Office said in its latest monthly budget review, released Thursday. The reason for the decrease? “[L]ower interest rates and lower inflation more than offset the effects of a larger federal debt.” (H/t to former Council of Economic Advisers head Jason Furman for noticing this detail; we’ve replicated his marked-up chart from the CBO report below.)
The Wall Street Journal’s Kate Davidson also noted the reduction in outlays on interest: “Lower interest rates reduced the cost of servicing the debt in fiscal 2020, giving policy makers more capacity to finance the recovery effort. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 0.779% late Thursday, down from 1.732% a year ago.”
A long-term trend. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, said Friday that “long-term interest rates have undergone a profound structural shift that is likely to keep yields at extremely low levels in the near to medium term.” According to his firm’s model, the long-term downward pressure on interest rates will continue, keeping the 10-year Treasury below 1% through at least 2025 (see the chart below).
“Most important,” Brusuelas said, “our interest rate models imply that under current economic conditions, debt accumulation does not provide the outsized risk to the economic outlook through an interest rate shock, inflation and lower growth than previously thought.”
As a result, the U.S. likely has more room to spend as necessary to boost an economy still struggling amid the coronavirus pandemic. Or, as Brusuelas puts it: “the United States has the fiscal space to adopt the required policy changes to increase productivity and long-term growth.”
A new report from the Brookings Institution also makes the point:
"[T]he fact that rates are so low despite the recent increase in debt does mean that the amount of debt that the U.S. can easily sustain is a lot larger than people used to think. That means there should be much less fearmongering about the debt, and more focus on other national priorities. Furthermore, with interest rates this low, now is a great time to increase public investment, because there are likely many investments the government can make that will yield returns greater than the interest rate that will have to be paid on the debt. Such investments make future generations better off, not worse."


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-08--Layoffs Keep Coming With Jobless Claims at ‘Staggeringly High’ Levels

About 840,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits last week , the Labor Department announced Thursday , a small decline from the week before but 20,000 more than analysts had expected .
Another 464,000 Americans applied for benefits through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program , the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed , bringing total unemployment aid applications to 1.3 million .
“ The level of claims is still staggeringly high , ” said economist Daniel Zhao of Glassdoor .
“ We ’ re seeing evidence that the recovery is slowing down , whether it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sluggish improvement in jobless claims.
” Settling in at a high level : One reason layoffs have remained so high week after week is that some companies try to hang onto workers as long as they can in order to be ready when the economy picks up again .
But as the recession drags on , employers give up and start shedding employees .
“ Some of these new layoffs are coming from firms that didn ’ t want or didn ’ t have to lay people off at first , ” Constance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told the Associated Press .
But as the recession hits the six-month mark with no end in sight , “ they have no choice but to start reducing their workforce.
” Significant churn : The ongoing layoffs , at levels higher than seen during the worst of the Great Recession , are contributing to enormous churn in the labor market , which is also recording substantial gains , as evidenced by the monthly job reports .
“ Companies are continuing to rehire workers as they reopen , even as other companies cut jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and services , ” said Ben Casselman of The New York Times .
“ The result is a job market that is being pulled in two directions at once — and economic data that can appear to tell contradictory stories.
” Millions still receiving benefits : The number of people receiving state benefits fell by roughly 1 million , down to about 11 million , and the number receiving benefits through the federal PUA program fell by about 400,000 , down to 11.4 million .
Once all of the insurance programs are accounted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receiving unemployment aid .
Add in the people who are still waiting to receive their benefits or hear about the status of their applications and the number rises to over 26 million , says Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute ( see the chart below ) .
Shierholz cautions , though , that the data is far from perfect , and is almost certainly distorted by backlogs , double-counting and fraud .
“ All this means nobody knows exactly how many people are receiving unemployment insurance benefits right now , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we need to invest heavily in our data infrastructure and technology .
”

About 840,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department announced Thursday, a small decline from the week before but 20,000 more than analysts had expected.
Another 464,000 Americans applied for benefits through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, the federal program that covers gig workers and the self-employed, bringing total unemployment aid applications to 1.3 million.
“The level of claims is still staggeringly high,” said economist Daniel Zhao of Glassdoor. “We’re seeing evidence that the recovery is slowing down, whether it’s in slowing payroll gains or in the sluggish improvement in jobless claims.”
Settling in at a high level: One reason layoffs have remained so high week after week is that some companies try to hang onto workers as long as they can in order to be ready when the economy picks up again. But as the recession drags on, employers give up and start shedding employees.
“Some of these new layoffs are coming from firms that didn’t want or didn’t have to lay people off at first,” Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, told the Associated Press. But as the recession hits the six-month mark with no end in sight, “they have no choice but to start reducing their workforce.”
Significant churn: The ongoing layoffs, at levels higher than seen during the worst of the Great Recession, are contributing to enormous churn in the labor market, which is also recording substantial gains, as evidenced by the monthly job reports.
“Companies are continuing to rehire workers as they reopen, even as other companies cut jobs in response to still-depressed demand for goods and services,” said Ben Casselman of The New York Times. “The result is a job market that is being pulled in two directions at once — and economic data that can appear to tell contradictory stories.”
Millions still receiving benefits: The number of people receiving state benefits fell by roughly 1 million, down to about 11 million, and the number receiving benefits through the federal PUA program fell by about 400,000, down to 11.4 million. Once all of the insurance programs are accounted for, about 25.5 million people are receiving unemployment aid.
Add in the people who are still waiting to receive their benefits or hear about the status of their applications and the number rises to over 26 million, says Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute (see the chart below). Shierholz cautions, though, that the data is far from perfect, and is almost certainly distorted by backlogs, double-counting and fraud. “All this means nobody knows exactly how many people are receiving unemployment insurance benefits right now,” she said, “which is another reminder that we need to invest heavily in our data infrastructure and technology.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-08--Deficit Tops $3 Trillion in 2020: CBO

Deficit Tops $3 Trillion in 2020: CBO

The federal budget deficit rose to a record-breaking $ 3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020 , according to estimates released @ @ @ @ @ Thursday .
Even before the coronavirus crisis , the annual deficit was expected to top @ @ @ @ @ , but reduced revenues and increased spending associated with the pandemic produced a final number @ @ @ @ @ .
Revenues were down 1 % , while spending — on everything from aid to @ @ @ @ @ for laid off workers — was up 47 % .
`` Relative to the size @ @ @ @ @ deficit—at an estimated 15.2 percent of gross domestic product ( GDP ) —was the largest @ @ @ @ @ CBO said .
The Treasury Department will release official figures later in the month .

The federal budget deficit rose to a record-breaking $3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020, according to estimates released by the Congressional Budget Office Thursday.
Even before the coronavirus crisis, the annual deficit was expected to top $1 trillion in 2020, but reduced revenues and increased spending associated with the pandemic produced a final number about three times that estimate. Revenues were down 1%, while spending — on everything from aid to businesses to enhanced unemployment benefits for laid off workers — was up 47%.
"Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit—at an estimated 15.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—was the largest since 1945,” the CBO said.
The Treasury Department will release official figures later in the month.


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-13--McConnell Plans Vote on Narrow Relief Package. Trump Says, ‘Go Big or Go Home!!!’

As the stalemate over another coronavirus relief package continues , these three things all happened on Tuesday : • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) announced that the Senate will take up a narrow aid package when it comes back in session next week .
The “ targeted ” package will be similar to one blocked by Democrats last month , including an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits , a renewal of the Paycheck Protection Program of small business loans , money for schools and liability protections for businesses , among other provisions .
The package will reportedly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows had urged such a narrow bill focused on the small business program in a letter to lawmakers Sunday .
“ Secretary Mnuchin and Chief of Staff Meadows are right : There is no excuse for Democrats to keep blocking job-saving funding for the Paycheck Protection Program while other conversations continue , ” McConnell said in a statement .
“ Republicans do not agree that nothing is better than something for working families .
The American people need Democrats to stop blocking bipartisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before more Americans lose their jobs needlessly.
” • Within minutes , President Trump undercut McConnell by tweeting : “ STIMULUS !
Go big or go home !
!
!
” • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic House committee chairs detailed their numerous objections to a $ 1.8 trillion proposal offered by Mnuchin last week .
“ A fly on the wall or wherever else it might land in the Oval Office tells me that the President only wants his name on a check to go out before Election Day and for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pelosi said in a letter to House Democrats .
“ Tragically , the Trump proposal falls significantly short of what this pandemic and deep recession demand.
” Where does that leave things ?
Nowhere closer to a new round of relief .
The president seems to have realized that pushing for — or at least publicly calling for — a larger relief package could help him politically .
But it may be too late .
Trailing in the polls with just three weeks to go before Election Day , it ’ s not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his own party to overcome a sizable Senate GOP backlash to a bigger stimulus .
“ Trump ’ s current political standing seems to have hurt his ability to persuade Senate Republicans to embrace more deficit spending , ” Politico ’ s Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan write .
So Republicans and the White House can ’ t get on the same page , Democrats may again block the Senate GOP bill and Pelosi shows no signs of relenting to some calls from members of her own party to accept the White House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let alone of caving and agreeing to piecemeal legislation she has long opposed .
“ We need an agreement , but we can not get an agreement just by folding .
Our leverage has never been greater , ” Pelosi reportedly told her members on a conference call Tuesday .
Why it matters : Economists continue to warn that a failure by Congress to provide additional aid could result in more job losses and suffering .
“ There are millions of people in a desperate position right now , ” Michele Evermore , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Employment Law Project , told The Washington Post .
“ And without further action , this economic pain will spill out into the community .
”

As the stalemate over another coronavirus relief package continues, these three things all happened on Tuesday:
• Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced that the Senate will take up a narrow aid package when it comes back in session next week. The “targeted” package will be similar to one blocked by Democrats last month, including an extension of enhanced unemployment benefits, a renewal of the Paycheck Protection Program of small business loans, money for schools and liability protections for businesses, among other provisions. The package will reportedly total roughly $500 billion.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows had urged such a narrow bill focused on the small business program in a letter to lawmakers Sunday.
“Secretary Mnuchin and Chief of Staff Meadows are right: There is no excuse for Democrats to keep blocking job-saving funding for the Paycheck Protection Program while other conversations continue,” McConnell said in a statement. “Republicans do not agree that nothing is better than something for working families. The American people need Democrats to stop blocking bipartisan funding and let us replenish the PPP before more Americans lose their jobs needlessly.”
• Within minutes, President Trump undercut McConnell by tweeting: “STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!”
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic House committee chairs detailed their numerous objections to a $1.8 trillion proposal offered by Mnuchin last week. “A fly on the wall or wherever else it might land in the Oval Office tells me that the President only wants his name on a check to go out before Election Day and for the market to go up,” Pelosi said in a letter to House Democrats. “Tragically, the Trump proposal falls significantly short of what this pandemic and deep recession demand.”
Where does that leave things? Nowhere closer to a new round of relief.
The president seems to have realized that pushing for — or at least publicly calling for — a larger relief package could help him politically. But it may be too late. Trailing in the polls with just three weeks to go before Election Day, it’s not clear whether Trump has enough sway in his own party to overcome a sizable Senate GOP backlash to a bigger stimulus. “Trump’s current political standing seems to have hurt his ability to persuade Senate Republicans to embrace more deficit spending,” Politico’s Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan write.
So Republicans and the White House can’t get on the same page, Democrats may again block the Senate GOP bill and Pelosi shows no signs of relenting to some calls from members of her own party to accept the White House’s $1.8 trillion offer — let alone of caving and agreeing to piecemeal legislation she has long opposed.
“We need an agreement, but we cannot get an agreement just by folding. Our leverage has never been greater,” Pelosi reportedly told her members on a conference call Tuesday.
Why it matters: Economists continue to warn that a failure by Congress to provide additional aid could result in more job losses and suffering. “There are millions of people in a desperate position right now,” Michele Evermore, a national unemployment expert at the National Employment Law Project, told The Washington Post. “And without further action, this economic pain will spill out into the community.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-12--Trump Faces a GOP Revolt Over Stimulus

Trump Faces a GOP Revolt Over Stimulus

The faint hopes that were raised last week for another coronavirus relief package faded very quickly , as congressional Republicans and Democrats both rejected a $ 1.8 trillion White House proposal , leading Trump administration officials to again change their approach to the stimulus talks .
Republicans revolt over White House offer : On a Saturday conference call with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows , a number of Senate Republicans reportedly blasted the relief package that had been approved by President Trump , criticizing both the overall cost and specific components .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Politico reports .
The blowback was so strong that Meadows at one point reportedly told the group that they would “ have to come to my funeral ” after he conveyed their adamant opposition to the president .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) , meanwhile , dismissed the proposal as “ grossly inadequate.
” She said that the plans for coronavirus testing , tracing and treatment in the White House offer were “ wholly insufficient ” and that the proposals for unemployment insurance , aid to state and local governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell short .
“ It is hard to understand who is shaping their approach , which to date has been a miserable and deadly failure , ” Pelosi wrote in a letter to House Democrats on Sunday .
“ Until these serious issues are resolved , we remain at an impasse.
” Pelosi also faces some pushback from her members , with Rep. Ro Khanna ( D-CA ) and others pressing her to take the White House offer .
“ Make a deal & put the ball in McConnell court , ” Khanna @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In a letter to the House and Senate on Sunday , Mnuchin and Meadows called for lawmakers to immediately take up a narrower bill that would reportedly allow small businesses to apply for a second round of forgivable loans , using the roughly $ 130 billion in untapped funds from the Paycheck Protection Program .
“ Now is the time for us to come together and immediately vote on a bill to allow us to spend the unused Paycheck Protection Program funds while we continue to work toward a comprehensive package , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is an unacceptable response to the American people.
” No clear path forward : “ The shift in strategy from the White House caps a week in which the president and his negotiators adopted a dizzying number of different approaches to securing a relief package through Congress , ” The Washington Post ’ s Jeff Stein and Erica Werner reported Sunday .
But this latest proposal is no more likely to succeed , even as lawmakers in both parties support extending the Paycheck Protection Program .
Pelosi has dismissed the idea of piecemeal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort is needed .
Trump himself now appears to be pressing for a larger package , too , calling on Republicans Monday to cut short Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett so they could turn their focus to a stimulus deal .
`` The Republicans are giving the Democrats a great deal of time , which is not mandated , to make their self serving statements relative to our great new future Supreme Court Justice , '' he wrote on Twitter .
“ Personally , I would pull back , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the people !
! ''
Democrats , criticizing what they called a rushed confirmation process , also argued that lawmakers should be spending their time on coronavirus relief .
Sen. Kamala Harris ( D-CA ) , the Democratic vice presidential nominee and a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee , castigated Republicans for pushing ahead with the confirmation while not taking up a House-passed coronavirus relief bill , leaving the aid package in limbo .
“ Senate Republicans have made it crystal clear that rushing a Supreme Court nomination is more important than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are suffering from a deadly pandemic and a devastating economic crisis , ” she said .
Will Trump try to squeeze GOP senators ?
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Sunday that Trump may still press for a larger relief package — and suggested that , despite ample evidence to the contrary , Senate Republicans would go along with the president .
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany made similar comments on Monday .
“ I believe Senate Republicans will ultimately come along with what the president wants — the president noted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ News .
“ We believe Senate Republicans are not what ’ s blocking this .
It is Democrats.
” Trump undercut that message in a Monday afternoon tweet : “ Republicans should be strongly focused on completing a wonderful stimulus package for the American People !
” The bottom line : Pelosi and Mnuchin are expected to talk more this week , but the chances of a relief package passing before the election were slim to begin with and they keep shrinking with each passing day .
As Politico said Sunday : “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a policy or two , they ’ re taking issue with the entire package , the number , the scope and the policies .
There doesn ’ t appear to be a middle ground here.
” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer ( D-MD ) told lawmakers Monday that “ no votes are expected in the House this week .
”

The faint hopes that were raised last week for another coronavirus relief package faded very quickly, as congressional Republicans and Democrats both rejected a $1.8 trillion White House proposal, leading Trump administration officials to again change their approach to the stimulus talks.
Republicans revolt over White House offer: On a Saturday conference call with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, a number of Senate Republicans reportedly blasted the relief package that had been approved by President Trump, criticizing both the overall cost and specific components. “The voices were loud and angry,” Politico reports. The blowback was so strong that Meadows at one point reportedly told the group that they would “have to come to my funeral” after he conveyed their adamant opposition to the president.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), meanwhile, dismissed the proposal as “grossly inadequate.” She said that the plans for coronavirus testing, tracing and treatment in the White House offer were “wholly insufficient” and that the proposals for unemployment insurance, aid to state and local governments, child care and tax credits also fell short.
“It is hard to understand who is shaping their approach, which to date has been a miserable and deadly failure,” Pelosi wrote in a letter to House Democrats on Sunday. “Until these serious issues are resolved, we remain at an impasse.”
Pelosi also faces some pushback from her members, with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and others pressing her to take the White House offer. “Make a deal & put the ball in McConnell court,” Khanna tweeted.
White House pivots again: In a letter to the House and Senate on Sunday, Mnuchin and Meadows called for lawmakers to immediately take up a narrower bill that would reportedly allow small businesses to apply for a second round of forgivable loans, using the roughly $130 billion in untapped funds from the Paycheck Protection Program.
“Now is the time for us to come together and immediately vote on a bill to allow us to spend the unused Paycheck Protection Program funds while we continue to work toward a comprehensive package,” they wrote. “The all-or-nothing approach is an unacceptable response to the American people.”
No clear path forward: “The shift in strategy from the White House caps a week in which the president and his negotiators adopted a dizzying number of different approaches to securing a relief package through Congress,” The Washington Post’s Jeff Stein and Erica Werner reported Sunday. But this latest proposal is no more likely to succeed, even as lawmakers in both parties support extending the Paycheck Protection Program. Pelosi has dismissed the idea of piecemeal legislation, arguing that a broader relief effort is needed.
Trump himself now appears to be pressing for a larger package, too, calling on Republicans Monday to cut short Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett so they could turn their focus to a stimulus deal.
"The Republicans are giving the Democrats a great deal of time, which is not mandated, to make their self serving statements relative to our great new future Supreme Court Justice," he wrote on Twitter. “Personally, I would pull back, approve, and go for STIMULUS for the people!!"
Democrats, criticizing what they called a rushed confirmation process, also argued that lawmakers should be spending their time on coronavirus relief.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), the Democratic vice presidential nominee and a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, castigated Republicans for pushing ahead with the confirmation while not taking up a House-passed coronavirus relief bill, leaving the aid package in limbo. “Senate Republicans have made it crystal clear that rushing a Supreme Court nomination is more important than helping an supporting the American people who are suffering from a deadly pandemic and a devastating economic crisis,” she said.
Will Trump try to squeeze GOP senators? White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Sunday that Trump may still press for a larger relief package — and suggested that, despite ample evidence to the contrary, Senate Republicans would go along with the president. White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany made similar comments on Monday. “I believe Senate Republicans will ultimately come along with what the president wants — the president noted that yesterday,” she told Fox News. “We believe Senate Republicans are not what’s blocking this. It is Democrats.”
Trump undercut that message in a Monday afternoon tweet: “Republicans should be strongly focused on completing a wonderful stimulus package for the American People!”
The bottom line: Pelosi and Mnuchin are expected to talk more this week, but the chances of a relief package passing before the election were slim to begin with and they keep shrinking with each passing day. As Politico said Sunday: “Republicans aren’t taking issue with a policy or two, they’re taking issue with the entire package, the number, the scope and the policies. There doesn’t appear to be a middle ground here.”
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told lawmakers Monday that “no votes are expected in the House this week.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-10-14--Mnuchin: Relief Bill Will Be ‘Difficult’ Before Election

In case it wasn ’ t already clear that a new coronavirus relief bill probably isn ’ t coming before the election , just take a look at what Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , who has been negotiating the deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-CA ) , said at the Milken Institute Global Conference Wednesday : “ I ’ d say at this point getting something done before the election and executing on that would be difficult , just given where we are.
” Mnuchin on Friday offered Pelosi a $ 1.8 trillion package and the two spoke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to Drew Hammill , a spokesperson for the speaker , who called the conversation “ productive ” but made clear the two sides still have significant differences .
“ One major area of disagreement continues to be that the White House lacks an understanding of the need for a national strategic testing plan .
The Speaker believes we must reopen our economy & schools safely & soon , & scientists agree we must have a strategic testing plan , ” Hammill wrote on Twitter .
“ Staff will continue to exchange paper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tomorrow.
” Mnuchin also said that the two sides are making progress , but he reportedly criticized Pelosi ’ s insistence on a broad deal , again suggesting that they could quickly deliver more targeted aid , including to the airline industry , which has begun furloughing thousands of workers .
“ I don ’ t agree with the speaker ’ s approach of ‘ we have to do all or nothing.
’ We ’ re continuing to negotiate a comprehensive bill but we want to put money into the economy now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interview on CNN Tuesday evening , Pelosi pushed back emphatically when host Wolf Blitzer asked repeatedly why she wouldn ’ t accept Mnuchin ’ s latest offer , saying that Blitzer and others suggesting she accept the deal don ’ t know the details of the talks .
“ They are not negotiating this situation , ” she said .
“ They have no idea of the particulars .
They have no idea of what the language is here.
” When Blitzer asked why she would let the perfect be the enemy of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s offer was “ not even close to the good.
” The election obstacle : Mnuchin said that pre-election politics may be lowering the odds of a deal .
Asked whether Democrats are holding off on a deal now in hopes that they can more easily pass their own bill if they win the Senate — and because they don ’ t want to give President Trump a win he can tout to boost his re-election campaign — Mnuchin said : “ That definitely is part of the reality .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ considerations are also hanging over the talks , as some Republicans distance themselves from a president they see trailing in the polls .
A number of Senate Republicans reportedly pushed back strongly against the administration ’ s latest offer , and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ( R-KY ) announced Tuesday that the Senate would vote on a narrower relief bill even as Trump has begun to publicly call for a larger package .
“ Trump ’ s erratic moves on the stimulus in particular have flummoxed Republicans , who were already divided among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d agree to , ” Bloomberg ’ s Steven T. Dennis and Jordan Fabian write .
“ Many GOP lawmakers are keenly aware that Trump could pull the rug out from under them at any moment .
They also are concerned he could be even more unpredictable on stimulus negotiations as the election draws nearer , according to a person familiar with conversations among lawmakers and their aides.
” Some Republicans are also looking ahead to the possibility that Joe Biden wins the presidency , Dennis and Fabian report : “ A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate campaigns said Republicans have been carefully laying the groundwork to restrain a Biden administration on federal spending and the budget deficit by talking up concerns about the price tag for another round of virus relief .
The thinking , the strategist said , is that it would be very hard politically to agree on spending trillions more now and then in January suddenly embrace fiscal restraint.
” The bottom line : As Politico ’ s Sarah Ferris reports , “ a dose of political realism has begun to settle in , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will be virtually impossible to clinch a multitrillion-dollar package in the 20 days before the election .
”

In case it wasn’t already clear that a new coronavirus relief bill probably isn’t coming before the election, just take a look at what Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who has been negotiating the deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), said at the Milken Institute Global Conference Wednesday: “I’d say at this point getting something done before the election and executing on that would be difficult, just given where we are.”
Mnuchin on Friday offered Pelosi a $1.8 trillion package and the two spoke Wednesday morning for about an hour, according to Drew Hammill, a spokesperson for the speaker, who called the conversation “productive” but made clear the two sides still have significant differences.
“One major area of disagreement continues to be that the White House lacks an understanding of the need for a national strategic testing plan. The Speaker believes we must reopen our economy & schools safely & soon, & scientists agree we must have a strategic testing plan,” Hammill wrote on Twitter. “Staff will continue to exchange paper and the two principals will speak again tomorrow.”
Mnuchin also said that the two sides are making progress, but he reportedly criticized Pelosi’s insistence on a broad deal, again suggesting that they could quickly deliver more targeted aid, including to the airline industry, which has begun furloughing thousands of workers. “I don’t agree with the speaker’s approach of ‘we have to do all or nothing.’ We’re continuing to negotiate a comprehensive bill but we want to put money into the economy now,” Mnuchin said.
In a tense interview on CNN Tuesday evening, Pelosi pushed back emphatically when host Wolf Blitzer asked repeatedly why she wouldn’t accept Mnuchin’s latest offer, saying that Blitzer and others suggesting she accept the deal don’t know the details of the talks. “They are not negotiating this situation,” she said. “They have no idea of the particulars. They have no idea of what the language is here.”
When Blitzer asked why she would let the perfect be the enemy of the good, Pelosi said the administration’s offer was “not even close to the good.”
The election obstacle: Mnuchin said that pre-election politics may be lowering the odds of a deal. Asked whether Democrats are holding off on a deal now in hopes that they can more easily pass their own bill if they win the Senate — and because they don’t want to give President Trump a win he can tout to boost his re-election campaign — Mnuchin said: “That definitely is part of the reality. That’s definitely an issue.”
GOP political considerations are also hanging over the talks, as some Republicans distance themselves from a president they see trailing in the polls. A number of Senate Republicans reportedly pushed back strongly against the administration’s latest offer, and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced Tuesday that the Senate would vote on a narrower relief bill even as Trump has begun to publicly call for a larger package.
“Trump’s erratic moves on the stimulus in particular have flummoxed Republicans, who were already divided among themselves over how big a package they’d agree to,” Bloomberg’s Steven T. Dennis and Jordan Fabian write. “Many GOP lawmakers are keenly aware that Trump could pull the rug out from under them at any moment. They also are concerned he could be even more unpredictable on stimulus negotiations as the election draws nearer, according to a person familiar with conversations among lawmakers and their aides.”
Some Republicans are also looking ahead to the possibility that Joe Biden wins the presidency, Dennis and Fabian report:
“A GOP strategist who has been consulting with Senate campaigns said Republicans have been carefully laying the groundwork to restrain a Biden administration on federal spending and the budget deficit by talking up concerns about the price tag for another round of virus relief. The thinking, the strategist said, is that it would be very hard politically to agree on spending trillions more now and then in January suddenly embrace fiscal restraint.”
The bottom line: As Politico’s Sarah Ferris reports, “a dose of political realism has begun to settle in, with lawmakers and top aides begrudgingly acknowledging that it will be virtually impossible to clinch a multitrillion-dollar package in the 20 days before the election.”