thefiscaltimes--2020-04-29--Millions Are Waiting for Jobless Benefits

Millions of people who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus are having trouble getting the unemployment benefits they are entitled to receive .
About 26 million people have applied for unemployment since the beginning of the outbreak , but an unknown number have been unable to do so due to overwhelmed reporting systems and outdated technology at the state level .
And some workers who have managed to make a claim are still waiting to receive their benefits as states struggle with the unprecedented volume of people seeking assistance .
Some people can ’ t get through : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Economic Policy Institute , for every 10 people who filed for unemployment benefits from mid-March to mid-April , three to four were unable to get through to their state systems , and another two didn ’ t try because they thought it was too difficult to do so .
The survey results suggest that in addition to the 21.5 million people who filed for benefits during the four-week period from March 22 to April 18 , another 7.8 to 12.2 million people would have applied had they been able to do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count of unemployment insurance claims likely drastically understates the extent of employment reductions and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis , ” the study ’ s authors wrote .
State systems are breaking down : Some states can ’ t handle to sheer number of benefit applications they are receiving , as old technology , understaffing and years of insufficient investment take their toll .
One result is that applicants are kept waiting for states to determine their eligibility to receive benefits .
According to an analysis by CQ Roll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applications through April 11 , the hard-hit states of Florida , Ohio , Georgia and New Jersey have failed to process hundreds of thousands of applications ( see the chart below ) .
The reasons for the failures are complex and include a confusing gap between state-level rules and new federal guidelines that enable a wider range of workers to receive benefits – a distinction that requires some applicants to reapply for the federal program after being rejected for the state one .
“ The feds ... put guidance out that said you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get rejected , and then apply for pandemic unemployment insurance , which was a complete disaster , ” Melissa DeRosa , a top aide to New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo , said last week .
Lots of frustration : The crisis is moving so fast that it can be hard to nail down solid numbers , but stories about frustrated people struggling with the unemployment system are not hard to come by .
Jim Hewes , who lost his job in Orlando in March , told Reuters that it took him more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ online and he is still waiting to hear about the paper form he mailed in April .
“ It ’ s a shame how you work for so many years and then when you need it , you can ’ t get it , ” Hewes said .
“ It ’ s almost set up to fail .
”

Millions of people who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus are having trouble getting the unemployment benefits they are entitled to receive.
About 26 million people have applied for unemployment since the beginning of the outbreak, but an unknown number have been unable to do so due to overwhelmed reporting systems and outdated technology at the state level. And some workers who have managed to make a claim are still waiting to receive their benefits as states struggle with the unprecedented volume of people seeking assistance.
Some people can’t get through: According to survey data released Tuesday by the Economic Policy Institute, for every 10 people who filed for unemployment benefits from mid-March to mid-April, three to four were unable to get through to their state systems, and another two didn’t try because they thought it was too difficult to do so. The survey results suggest that in addition to the 21.5 million people who filed for benefits during the four-week period from March 22 to April 18, another 7.8 to 12.2 million people would have applied had they been able to do so.
“These findings imply the official count of unemployment insurance claims likely drastically understates the extent of employment reductions and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis,” the study’s authors wrote.
State systems are breaking down: Some states can’t handle to sheer number of benefit applications they are receiving, as old technology, understaffing and years of insufficient investment take their toll. One result is that applicants are kept waiting for states to determine their eligibility to receive benefits. According to an analysis by CQ Roll Call, based on four weeks of applications through April 11, the hard-hit states of Florida, Ohio, Georgia and New Jersey have failed to process hundreds of thousands of applications (see the chart below).
The reasons for the failures are complex and include a confusing gap between state-level rules and new federal guidelines that enable a wider range of workers to receive benefits – a distinction that requires some applicants to reapply for the federal program after being rejected for the state one.
“The feds ... put guidance out that said you have to apply for unemployment insurance, get rejected, and then apply for pandemic unemployment insurance, which was a complete disaster,” Melissa DeRosa, a top aide to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, said last week.
Lots of frustration: The crisis is moving so fast that it can be hard to nail down solid numbers, but stories about frustrated people struggling with the unemployment system are not hard to come by. Jim Hewes, who lost his job in Orlando in March, told Reuters that it took him more than two weeks file a benefit claim online and he is still waiting to hear about the paper form he mailed in April. “It’s a shame how you work for so many years and then when you need it, you can’t get it,” Hewes said. “It’s almost set up to fail.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-04-30--Unemployment Claims Surpass 30 Million

Unemployment Claims Surpass 30 Million

Another 3.8 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week , pushing the number of corona virus-related job losses past 30 million , the Labor Department announced Thursday .
Although new jobless claims fell for the fourth week in a row , the sheer size of the numbers highlight the unprecedented nature of the current economic crisis .
Economists estimate that the unemployment rate could be somewhere in the range of 20 % , a level not seen since the Great Depression .
No sector untouched : Layoffs hit hotels and restaurants first , The Washington Post ’ s Andrew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into other sectors with each successive week .
Job losses have now affected manufacturing , construction and retail ; management , finance and insurance ; and oil , gas and mining .
Now public service jobs are beginning to feel the pain , as states move to balance budgets reeling from plummeting tax revenues .
State funds going broke : The overwhelming number of people claiming jobless benefits is rapidly draining state unemployment funds .
New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo said earlier this week that his state could soon run out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in benefits between March 9 and April 22 to more than 1.4 million workers .
“ [ T ] hat ’ s why federal government has to provide funding , we don ’ t have money , ” Cuomo told reporters .
A February report from the Labor Department showed that 21 states – including California , Texas , New York , Illinois , Ohio and Pennsylvania – had less than the minimum recommended amount in their unemployment reserves to handle a recession , Bloomberg reported Thursday , and some states have already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to cover benefit payments .
Federal loans to states are not unusual during recessions , and the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus bill included terms that waive interest on such loans through December .
Europe takes a different path : The unemployment rate is climbing less in Europe than in the U.S. , The Washington Post ’ s Michael Birnbaum reports , due in large part to the different approach taken by the region ’ s governments .
“ Many European governments have implemented a subsidy program , pioneered by Germany in the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to 87 percent of salaries for workers sent home but kept on payroll , ” Birnbaum says .
As a result , there have been fewer layoffs as government shields both workers and businesses from the severe economic dislocations seen in the U.S .
Still , economists say that the European approach may be effective but it does carry risks .
The direct costs are high and the subsidy program would be challenging to operate over a long period of time .
In the end , it ’ s not clear that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if demand remains depressed over the long term .

Another 3.8 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, pushing the number of corona virus-related job losses past 30 million, the Labor Department announced Thursday.
Although new jobless claims fell for the fourth week in a row, the sheer size of the numbers highlight the unprecedented nature of the current economic crisis. Economists estimate that the unemployment rate could be somewhere in the range of 20%, a level not seen since the Great Depression.
No sector untouched: Layoffs hit hotels and restaurants first, The Washington Post’s Andrew Van Dam says, but have expanded into other sectors with each successive week. Job losses have now affected manufacturing, construction and retail; management, finance and insurance; and oil, gas and mining. Now public service jobs are beginning to feel the pain, as states move to balance budgets reeling from plummeting tax revenues.
State funds going broke: The overwhelming number of people claiming jobless benefits is rapidly draining state unemployment funds. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said earlier this week that his state could soon run out of funds, having paid $3.1 billion in benefits between March 9 and April 22 to more than 1.4 million workers. “[T]hat’s why federal government has to provide funding, we don’t have money,” Cuomo told reporters.
A February report from the Labor Department showed that 21 states – including California, Texas, New York, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania – had less than the minimum recommended amount in their unemployment reserves to handle a recession, Bloomberg reported Thursday, and some states have already started requesting loans from the federal government to cover benefit payments. Federal loans to states are not unusual during recessions, and the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill included terms that waive interest on such loans through December.
Europe takes a different path: The unemployment rate is climbing less in Europe than in the U.S., The Washington Post’s Michael Birnbaum reports, due in large part to the different approach taken by the region’s governments. “Many European governments have implemented a subsidy program, pioneered by Germany in the last global recession, under which they pay up to 87 percent of salaries for workers sent home but kept on payroll,” Birnbaum says. As a result, there have been fewer layoffs as government shields both workers and businesses from the severe economic dislocations seen in the U.S.
Still, economists say that the European approach may be effective but it does carry risks. The direct costs are high and the subsidy program would be challenging to operate over a long period of time. In the end, it’s not clear that a federal subsidy can fix the economy if demand remains depressed over the long term.


thefiscaltimes--2020-04-29--A Plan to Allow Food Stamps at Restaurants

With thousands of restaurants facing a possibly fatal slowdown in business and millions of newly jobless Americans in desperate need of food , Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday that aims to address both problems at once .
The legislation from Sen. Chris Murphy ( D-CT ) and Rep. Jimmy Panetta ( D-CA ) proposes to expand the Restaurant Meals Program , which allows some people who receive food assistance to purchase discounted meals at restaurants .
The program is voluntary for states , with only California , Arizona and Rhode Island currently participating , and can be used only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who receive benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program , the nation ’ s primary source of food aid , often referred to as food stamps .
The SNAP Covid-19 Anti-Hunger Restaurant Relief for You Act of 2020 , or the SNAP Carry Act , would allow states to expand the meals program in the event of a public health emergency or natural disaster so that all SNAP beneficiaries can participate .
That would theoretically allow all 38 million current SNAP beneficiaries to expand their sources of food while providing restaurants with much @ @ @

With thousands of restaurants facing a possibly fatal slowdown in business and millions of newly jobless Americans in desperate need of food, Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday that aims to address both problems at once.
The legislation from Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-CA) proposes to expand the Restaurant Meals Program, which allows some people who receive food assistance to purchase discounted meals at restaurants. The program is voluntary for states, with only California, Arizona and Rhode Island currently participating, and can be used only by elderly, disabled and homeless people who receive benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the nation’s primary source of food aid, often referred to as food stamps.
The SNAP Covid-19 Anti-Hunger Restaurant Relief for You Act of 2020, or the SNAP Carry Act, would allow states to expand the meals program in the event of a public health emergency or natural disaster so that all SNAP beneficiaries can participate. That would theoretically allow all 38 million current SNAP beneficiaries to expand their sources of food while providing restaurants with much needed revenues.
The National Restaurant Association supports the bill.


thefiscaltimes--2020-04-29--GDP Contracts at 4.8% Pace in First Quarter

The U.S economy contracted at a 4.8 % annualized rate during the first three months of the year , the @ @ @ @ @ The decline — the worst since the 8.4 % plunge in the fourth quarter of @ @ @ @ @ steps businesses and workers took in March to slow the spread of the coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ drop since 1980 , and business investment fell faster than it has in more than @ @ @ @ @ data is expected to be dramatically worse in the second quarter as job losses and @ @ @ @ @ producing the worst recession the country has seen since the Great Depression .
The Congressional @ @ @ @ @ 12 % decline in GDP in the current quarter .
“ Despite massive government aid @ @ @ @ @ , businesses big and small risk going bankrupt , while consumers may remain wary of @ @ @ @ @ health concerns , higher debt burdens and job insecurity , ” Bloomberg ’ s Katia @ @ @

The U.S economy contracted at a 4.8% annualized rate during the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The decline — the worst since the 8.4% plunge in the fourth quarter of 2008 — reflects the extreme steps businesses and workers took in March to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Consumer spending saw its biggest drop since 1980, and business investment fell faster than it has in more than a decade.
The economic data is expected to be dramatically worse in the second quarter as job losses and business closings continue, likely producing the worst recession the country has seen since the Great Depression. The Congressional Budget Office is projecting a 12% decline in GDP in the current quarter.
“Despite massive government aid packages and near-zero interest rates, businesses big and small risk going bankrupt, while consumers may remain wary of hitting shops and restaurants amid health concerns, higher debt burdens and job insecurity,” Bloomberg’s Katia Dmitrieva wrote.


thefiscaltimes--2020-04-29--Fed’s Powell Says US Economy Will Need More Stimulus

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that both the central bank and Congress will likely need to do more to support the economy and promote a strong recovery from the coronavirus crisis .
Powell emphasized that the Fed , which slashed its benchmark interest rate to near zero last month and left them there on Wednesday , is “ committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time.
” He pledged that the Fed would act “ forcefully , proactively and aggressively ” until the economy is on a path to recovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of the answer , ” Powell said .
“ Will there be a need to do more , though ?
I think the answer to that will be yes.
” Powell added that Congress had also responded aggressively to the pandemic with the CARES Act and other relief legislation , but that “ it may well be the case that the economy will need more support from all of us if the recovery is to be a robust one.
” Powell noted that Congress could mitigate long-run damage to the economy by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ households from “ avoidable insolvency ” and allow businesses to keep their workers .
‘ Time to Use the Great Fiscal Power of the United States ’ : The Fed chair has in the past warned about the risks of rising U.S. deficits , but after some Republicans have cited those concerns in recent days in calling for caution about additional coronavirus spending , Powell on Wednesday said that the federal debt burden shouldn ’ t be the focus now .
“ I ’ ve have for a long time been an advocate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to return to a sustainable path from a fiscal perspective at the federal level , ” Powell said .
“ This is not the time to act on those concerns .
This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible .
The time will come again , and reasonably soon I think , where we can think about a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in order , and we absolutely need to do that .
But , in my personal view , this is not the time to let that concern , which is a very serious concern , to let that get in the way of us winning this battle.
” The Fed has taken unprecedented steps to support the economy , buying up trillions of dollars in bonds as it seeks to ensure markets continue to function and bolster businesses , states and municipalities .
The Fed also said Wednesday that it would leave rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to full employment and inflation rises to around its long-standing 2 % target .
“ Both the depth and duration of the economic downturn are extraordinarily uncertain , and will depend in large part on how quickly the virus is brought under control , ” Powell said .

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that both the central bank and Congress will likely need to do more to support the economy and promote a strong recovery from the coronavirus crisis.
Powell emphasized that the Fed, which slashed its benchmark interest rate to near zero last month and left them there on Wednesday, is “committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time.” He pledged that the Fed would act “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” until the economy is on a path to recovery.
“We can continue to be part of the answer,” Powell said. “Will there be a need to do more, though? I think the answer to that will be yes.”
Powell added that Congress had also responded aggressively to the pandemic with the CARES Act and other relief legislation, but that “it may well be the case that the economy will need more support from all of us if the recovery is to be a robust one.”
Powell noted that Congress could mitigate long-run damage to the economy by enacting policies that help protect companies and households from “avoidable insolvency” and allow businesses to keep their workers.
‘Time to Use the Great Fiscal Power of the United States’: The Fed chair has in the past warned about the risks of rising U.S. deficits, but after some Republicans have cited those concerns in recent days in calling for caution about additional coronavirus spending, Powell on Wednesday said that the federal debt burden shouldn’t be the focus now.
“I’ve have for a long time been an advocate for the need for the United States to return to a sustainable path from a fiscal perspective at the federal level,” Powell said. “This is not the time to act on those concerns. This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible. The time will come again, and reasonably soon I think, where we can think about a long-term way to get the fiscal house in order, and we absolutely need to do that. But, in my personal view, this is not the time to let that concern, which is a very serious concern, to let that get in the way of us winning this battle.”
The Fed has taken unprecedented steps to support the economy, buying up trillions of dollars in bonds as it seeks to ensure markets continue to function and bolster businesses, states and municipalities. The Fed also said Wednesday that it would leave rates near zero until the economy is back to full employment and inflation rises to around its long-standing 2% target.
“Both the depth and duration of the economic downturn are extraordinarily uncertain, and will depend in large part on how quickly the virus is brought under control,” Powell said.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-01--Why Canceling Debt Held by China May Be ‘Worse Than Telling People to Drink Bleach’

As President Trump and his administration have ramped up criticisms of Beijing ’ s response to the coronavirus pandemic , The Washington Post reported Thursday evening that senior government officials across multiple agencies are looking into ways to punish or extract financial payback from China .
Among the ideas that have come up at this preliminary stage , according to the Post , is a dangerous one : “ Some administration officials have also discussed having the United States cancel part of its debt obligations to China , two people with knowledge of internal conversations said .
It was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea.
” When asked about it on Thursday , President Trump seemed to shoot down the possibility , saying that canceling debt could undermine the “ sanctity of the dollar ” and that he “ can do the same thing , but even for more money just by putting on tariffs.
” ‘ Circulating in the right-wing media echo chamber ’ : The Post ’ s Tory Newmyer reports that the idea of canceling debt held by China “ has been circulating in the right-wing media echo chamber for weeks ” and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it in nine different April broadcasts , repeatedly endorsing the move.
” On Hannity ’ s show , Republican Sens .
Marsha Blackburn , Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham reportedly backed the idea .
Why canceling debt would be dangerous : At Politico ’ s Morning Money , Ben White explains why canceling debt held by China would be playing with fire : “ The Chinese own around $ 1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities .
… Any move to ‘ cancel ’ debt held by China — i.e .
default on it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit of the U.S. , send U.S. interest rates soaring and could ignite a global financial catastrophe .
… The Chinese know we ( almost certainly ) wo n't do this .
But just saying it out loud at least raises some risk they would start dumping U.S. debt which would be ... really bad for the U.S. ” And Peterson Institute for International Economics President Adam Posen tells Newmyer that trying to cancel debt held by China would lead to a selling spree by other foreign holders of U.S. debt — and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ In economic terms , this is worse than telling people to drink bleach for what ails them , ” Posen said .
Trump advisers say no way : The risks involved in even floating the idea are likely why top White House economic officials quickly shot down the possibility of canceling debt .
“ The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct .
Period .
Full stop , ” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said .
Senior economic adviser Kevin Hassett likewise told Politico that he would “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
”

As President Trump and his administration have ramped up criticisms of Beijing’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, The Washington Post reported Thursday evening that senior government officials across multiple agencies are looking into ways to punish or extract financial payback from China.
Among the ideas that have come up at this preliminary stage, according to the Post, is a dangerous one: “Some administration officials have also discussed having the United States cancel part of its debt obligations to China, two people with knowledge of internal conversations said. It was not known if the president has backed this idea.”
When asked about it on Thursday, President Trump seemed to shoot down the possibility, saying that canceling debt could undermine the “sanctity of the dollar” and that he “can do the same thing, but even for more money just by putting on tariffs.”
‘Circulating in the right-wing media echo chamber’: The Post’s Tory Newmyer reports that the idea of canceling debt held by China “has been circulating in the right-wing media echo chamber for weeks” and that Fox News host Sean Hannity “mentioned it in nine different April broadcasts, repeatedly endorsing the move.” On Hannity’s show, Republican Sens. Marsha Blackburn, Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham reportedly backed the idea.
Why canceling debt would be dangerous: At Politico’s Morning Money, Ben White explains why canceling debt held by China would be playing with fire:
“The Chinese own around $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. … Any move to ‘cancel’ debt held by China — i.e. default on it — would destroy the full faith and credit of the U.S., send U.S. interest rates soaring and could ignite a global financial catastrophe. … The Chinese know we (almost certainly) won't do this. But just saying it out loud at least raises some risk they would start dumping U.S. debt which would be ... really bad for the U.S.”
And Peterson Institute for International Economics President Adam Posen tells Newmyer that trying to cancel debt held by China would lead to a selling spree by other foreign holders of U.S. debt — and a costly spike in interest rates. “In economic terms, this is worse than telling people to drink bleach for what ails them,” Posen said.
Trump advisers say no way: The risks involved in even floating the idea are likely why top White House economic officials quickly shot down the possibility of canceling debt. “The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said. Senior economic adviser Kevin Hassett likewise told Politico that he would “never entertain any default on U.S. debt.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-01--Reopening Too Early Could Cost Many Thousands of Lives: Analysis

The number of coronavirus-related deaths and the severity of the blow to the economy could vary widely depending on how the U.S. reopens in the coming weeks , according to a new analysis by researchers at the Penn Wharton Budget Model .
Taking into account measures of social distancing , GDP growth and changes in employment , researchers analyzed what would happen under three scenarios : status quo ( states maintain all restrictions currently in place until June 30 ) , partial reopening ( lifting emergency declarations , stay-at-home orders and school closures ) , and full reopening ( also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and restaurants ) .
Here ’ s what they found : * Status quo is estimated to result in around 117,000 total coronavirus-related deaths by the end of June .
The economy would be about 11.6 % smaller compared to a year ago , and roughly 18.6 million jobs would be lost in May and June .
* Partial reopening is projected to cause 45,000 additional deaths by the end of June , for a total of 162,000 .
The economy would be slightly larger than in the status quo case , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year by 10.7 % .
Roughly 14 million jobs would be lost – about 4.4 million less than in the status quo .
* Full reopening would cause an additional 233,000 deaths by June 30 compared to the status quo , for a total of 350,000 .
The economy would be 1.5 percentage points larger relative to the status quo , and there would be almost no additional job losses over the next two months .
The researchers said the results of the analysis vary depending on individual behavior .
For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a return to normal and cease all social distancing in their personal lives , total deaths would come to 950,000 by June 30 .
Job losses would turn into gains , with a net growth of 4.1 million jobs relative to the April 30 level .
“ If states fully reopen , that could be the worst-case number , using currently available models , ” Wharton professor Kent Smetters said .
A warning from Fauci : On Thursday evening , Dr. Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s top health advisers , warned states and cities about opening too early , citing federal guidelines that call for waiting for a decrease in cases over a 14-day period , among other things .
`` There are some states , some cities ... kind of leapfrogging over the first checkpoint .
And , I mean , obviously you could get away with that , but you are making a really significant risk , '' Fauci told CNN .
`` I hope they can actually handle any rebound that they see . ''
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy response simulator here .

The number of coronavirus-related deaths and the severity of the blow to the economy could vary widely depending on how the U.S. reopens in the coming weeks, according to a new analysis by researchers at the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
Taking into account measures of social distancing, GDP growth and changes in employment, researchers analyzed what would happen under three scenarios: status quo (states maintain all restrictions currently in place until June 30), partial reopening (lifting emergency declarations, stay-at-home orders and school closures), and full reopening (also lifting restrictions on the operation of businesses and restaurants). Here’s what they found:
* Status quo is estimated to result in around 117,000 total coronavirus-related deaths by the end of June. The economy would be about 11.6% smaller compared to a year ago, and roughly 18.6 million jobs would be lost in May and June.
* Partial reopening is projected to cause 45,000 additional deaths by the end of June, for a total of 162,000. The economy would be slightly larger than in the status quo case, but still smaller than the same period last year by 10.7%. Roughly 14 million jobs would be lost – about 4.4 million less than in the status quo.
* Full reopening would cause an additional 233,000 deaths by June 30 compared to the status quo, for a total of 350,000. The economy would be 1.5 percentage points larger relative to the status quo, and there would be almost no additional job losses over the next two months.
The researchers said the results of the analysis vary depending on individual behavior. For example, if people see the full reopening as a return to normal and cease all social distancing in their personal lives, total deaths would come to 950,000 by June 30. Job losses would turn into gains, with a net growth of 4.1 million jobs relative to the April 30 level.
“If states fully reopen, that could be the worst-case number, using currently available models,” Wharton professor Kent Smetters said.
A warning from Fauci: On Thursday evening, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of President Trump’s top health advisers, warned states and cities about opening too early, citing federal guidelines that call for waiting for a decrease in cases over a 14-day period, among other things. "There are some states, some cities ... kind of leapfrogging over the first checkpoint. And, I mean, obviously you could get away with that, but you are making a really significant risk," Fauci told CNN. "I hope they can actually handle any rebound that they see."
Try the Penn Wharton Budget Model coronavirus policy response simulator here.


thefiscaltimes--2020-04-30--Pelosi Says States, Cities Will Need $1 Trillion in Aid

Congress isn ’ t anywhere close to a consensus on the next coronavirus relief bill .
The Senate plans to return to the Capitol next week , and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested Thursday that her chamber would reconvene the week of May 11 after putting off plans to come back next week , citing guidance from the Capitol physician .
But as lawmakers look to add to the nearly $ 3 trillion they ’ ve already provided to address the pandemic , it will likely take weeks longer to reach agreement on the details of any new stimulus plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , analyst Chris Krueger of the Cowen Washington Research Group laid out 10 areas negotiators are likely to focus on : 2 .
Tax relief ( President Trump continues to talk about a payroll tax holiday , though a delay may be more likely ) ; 3 .
Social safety net programs ( food stamps and a further extension of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits ) ; 5 .
State/local government aid ( see more below ) ; The list of sticking points and potential disputes is also long .
Here ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have emerged early on in the debate .
Additional aid to states : Pelosi said at her weekly news conference Thursday that state and local governments are seeking $ 1 trillion in aid in the next coronavirus bill , money that would help avoid sweeping cuts to jobs and services that could prolong the economic downturn .
“ We ’ re not going to be able to cover all of it , but to the extent that we can keep the states and localities sustainable , that ’ s our goal , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money was strictly for helping with coronavirus costs and related revenue losses .
GOP lawmakers immediately dismissed Pelosi ’ s $ 1 trillion figure .
“ That strikes me as a pretty outrageous number , just for state and local support .
We ’ ve already provided $ 150 billion , ” Sen. John Cornyn ( R-TX ) told reporters .
Cornyn reportedly said he would support giving states more flexibility in how they can use the $ 150 billion provided as part of the $ 2 trillion Cares Act last month , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and not plugging budget holes .
More broadly , President Trump and Republicans say they don ’ t want to bail out the predominantly blue states that they claim have long mismanaged their budgets .
“ The broad viewpoint on the right has been that state governments have been so irresponsible for so long that Washington Republicans don ’ t trust them to disclose the costs that are just from the virus , ” Brian Riedl , a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute , told Bloomberg .
Trump has also suggested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and cities to immigration policies .
“ If you 're going to get aid to the cities and states for the kind of numbers you 're talking about , billions of dollars , I do n't think you should have sanctuary cities , '' Trump said Wednesday .
Protecting businesses from lawsuits : Businesses want Congress to shield them from lawsuits as they seek to reopen , and Republicans have made this a priority .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that any additional aid to state and local governments would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the Trump administration has expressed support as well .
“ We don ’ t need an epidemic of lawsuits in the wake of the pandemic , '' McConnell told Fox News on Thursday .
`` And so if we do another rescue package , and we may , we need to take our time , do it right , and it needs to include these liability protections so that all of these brave workers and brave businesses that will be reopening are not subjected to this second epidemic of litigation.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the idea , with some charging that McConnell is trying to use the crisis to advance tort reforms that have long been part of the GOP agenda .
“ At the time of this coronavirus challenge , especially now , we have every reason to protect our workers and our patients in all of this , ” Pelosi said on Wednesday .
“ So we would not be inclined to be supporting any immunity from liability .
”

Congress isn’t anywhere close to a consensus on the next coronavirus relief bill.
The Senate plans to return to the Capitol next week, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested Thursday that her chamber would reconvene the week of May 11 after putting off plans to come back next week, citing guidance from the Capitol physician. But as lawmakers look to add to the nearly $3 trillion they’ve already provided to address the pandemic, it will likely take weeks longer to reach agreement on the details of any new stimulus plan.
In a note to clients Thursday, analyst Chris Krueger of the Cowen Washington Research Group laid out 10 areas negotiators are likely to focus on:
1. Direct cash payments (and hazard pay for frontline workers);
2. Tax relief (President Trump continues to talk about a payroll tax holiday, though a delay may be more likely);
3. Social safety net programs (food stamps and a further extension of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits);
4. Small business grants/Paycheck Protection Program funding
5. State/local government aid (see more below);
6. Money for hospitals and testing;
7. Broadband infrastructure
8. China/supply chains (tax breaks for re-onshoring)
9. Sector-specific bailouts
10. Pension relief
The list of sticking points and potential disputes is also long. Here’s a look at the two main hurdles that have emerged early on in the debate.
Additional aid to states: Pelosi said at her weekly news conference Thursday that state and local governments are seeking $1 trillion in aid in the next coronavirus bill, money that would help avoid sweeping cuts to jobs and services that could prolong the economic downturn. “We’re not going to be able to cover all of it, but to the extent that we can keep the states and localities sustainable, that’s our goal,” she said, adding that the additional money was strictly for helping with coronavirus costs and related revenue losses.
GOP lawmakers immediately dismissed Pelosi’s $1 trillion figure. “That strikes me as a pretty outrageous number, just for state and local support. We’ve already provided $150 billion,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) told reporters. Cornyn reportedly said he would support giving states more flexibility in how they can use the $150 billion provided as part of the $2 trillion Cares Act last month, money that was expressly for coronavirus response and not plugging budget holes.
More broadly, President Trump and Republicans say they don’t want to bail out the predominantly blue states that they claim have long mismanaged their budgets. “The broad viewpoint on the right has been that state governments have been so irresponsible for so long that Washington Republicans don’t trust them to disclose the costs that are just from the virus,” Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute, told Bloomberg.
Trump has also suggested he may link additional funding for states and cities to immigration policies. “If you're going to get aid to the cities and states for the kind of numbers you're talking about, billions of dollars, I don't think you should have sanctuary cities," Trump said Wednesday.
Protecting businesses from lawsuits: Businesses want Congress to shield them from lawsuits as they seek to reopen, and Republicans have made this a priority. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that any additional aid to state and local governments would have to be paired with such legal protections, and the Trump administration has expressed support as well. “We don’t need an epidemic of lawsuits in the wake of the pandemic," McConnell told Fox News on Thursday. "And so if we do another rescue package, and we may, we need to take our time, do it right, and it needs to include these liability protections so that all of these brave workers and brave businesses that will be reopening are not subjected to this second epidemic of litigation.”
Democrats, unions and trial attorneys oppose the idea, with some charging that McConnell is trying to use the crisis to advance tort reforms that have long been part of the GOP agenda. “At the time of this coronavirus challenge, especially now, we have every reason to protect our workers and our patients in all of this,” Pelosi said on Wednesday. “So we would not be inclined to be supporting any immunity from liability.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-04--A Look at America’s ‘Broken Retirement System’

Millions of baby boomers are discovering that getting older isn ’ t getting any easier , thanks in part to a retirement system that fails to deliver security for millions of Americans .
“ Every day , 10,000 Americans reach the age of 65 , ” Will Englund says Monday in The Washington Post , noting that the number will peak at 12,000 a day in 2024 .
“ And every year , fewer and fewer of them have traditional employer-sponsored pensions to support them .
The system that was supposed to provide for them is shot through with holes.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ages of 55 and 64 participate in a job-based retirement savings plan , and the pandemic-induced recession will likely push millions of older workers who do have 401 ( k ) s to tap them for emergency funds , reducing their nest eggs .
More broadly , the shift from pension plans to market-based retirement accounts has increased the risk for participants of failing to prepare properly in a complex and sometimes confusing financial system .
“ We ’ ve probably peaked in terms of retirement security — and it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute tells Englund .
“ And now it ’ s all downhill .
Unless something changes , we ’ re going to start seeing much more hardship.
” The Post spoke to six Americans who are facing those hardships as they enter retirement .
Read Englund ’ s conversation with baby boomers facing the harsh world of retirement with limited funds .

Millions of baby boomers are discovering that getting older isn’t getting any easier, thanks in part to a retirement system that fails to deliver security for millions of Americans.
“Every day, 10,000 Americans reach the age of 65,” Will Englund says Monday in The Washington Post, noting that the number will peak at 12,000 a day in 2024. “And every year, fewer and fewer of them have traditional employer-sponsored pensions to support them. The system that was supposed to provide for them is shot through with holes.”
Fewer than half of Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 participate in a job-based retirement savings plan, and the pandemic-induced recession will likely push millions of older workers who do have 401(k)s to tap them for emergency funds, reducing their nest eggs. More broadly, the shift from pension plans to market-based retirement accounts has increased the risk for participants of failing to prepare properly in a complex and sometimes confusing financial system.
“We’ve probably peaked in terms of retirement security — and it’s not great,” Monique Morrisey of the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute tells Englund. “And now it’s all downhill. Unless something changes, we’re going to start seeing much more hardship.”
The Post spoke to six Americans who are facing those hardships as they enter retirement. Read Englund’s conversation with baby boomers facing the harsh world of retirement with limited funds.


Health-Care Spending Plummets

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on the American health care system , pushing hospitals and providers to their limits amid the worst medical crisis in a century .
And it ’ s having a powerful effect on the system as a whole , not just the emergency rooms and intensive care units that are dealing most directly with the virus .
Patients are canceling or postponing surgeries , skipping the dentist and taking whatever steps they can to avoid the health care system .
As a result , the health care industry is collapsing in on itself .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health-care spending fell at an annualized rate of 18 % , The Washington Post ’ s Todd C. Frankel and Tony Romm report Monday .
The decline was the largest single factor in the 4.8 % annualized decline in GDP for the first quarter .
Economists expect much worse numbers in the current quarter , with GDP falling at an annual rate of 30 % to 40 % .
Vivian Ho , a health economist and professor at Rice University , told the Post that some health systems are reporting 50 % or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ furloughs and pay cuts .
“ And while I think they ’ re going to rebound , it will be slow and won ’ t go back to what it was before , ” she said .

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on the American health care system, pushing hospitals and providers to their limits amid the worst medical crisis in a century. And it’s having a powerful effect on the system as a whole, not just the emergency rooms and intensive care units that are dealing most directly with the virus. Patients are canceling or postponing surgeries, skipping the dentist and taking whatever steps they can to avoid the health care system. As a result, the health care industry is collapsing in on itself.
In the first three months of 2020, health-care spending fell at an annualized rate of 18%, The Washington Post’s Todd C. Frankel and Tony Romm report Monday. The decline was the largest single factor in the 4.8% annualized decline in GDP for the first quarter. Economists expect much worse numbers in the current quarter, with GDP falling at an annual rate of 30% to 40%.
Vivian Ho, a health economist and professor at Rice University, told the Post that some health systems are reporting 50% or greater losses in revenue, resulting in furloughs and pay cuts. “And while I think they’re going to rebound, it will be slow and won’t go back to what it was before,” she said.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-04--Is the Recession Already Over?

Is the Recession Already Over?

The coronavirus pandemic is still raging — and the Trump administration is projecting that it is about to get worse , with the number of new cases surging to about 200,000 a day and deaths rising from about 1,750 now to about 3,000 a day by early June , according to an internal report obtained by The New York Times .
( “ This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting , ” a White House spokesman told the Times . )
Yet some top Wall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is over , Bloomberg Businessweek ’ s Peter Coy reports : “ Over the past two days , top economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley issued reports saying the world economy was hitting bottom .
If true , that means the recession is over and a recovery has begun .
… To the average person , a recession means economic conditions are bad .
But to an economist , a recession means economic conditions are worsening .
Once they stop getting worse and start getting even a little bit better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out the bubbly and have a social distancing party .
… By Morgan Stanley ’ s estimation , China bottomed in February , the euro zone probably bottomed in April , and the U.S. probably bottomed in late April , with Latin America still not there.
” The bottom line : Those economists ’ calls don ’ t mean the economic pain is over .
Far from it .
The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009 , but unemployment did n't peak until October of that year and stayed at 9.4 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is likely to be much slower than the dramatic shutdown-induced plunge into recession .
And , as Coy notes , the economists could simply be wrong .
If projections of the pandemic worsening come true and states now attempting or contemplating reopening are forced to revert to lockdowns , the economic optimism will likely prove short-lived .

The coronavirus pandemic is still raging — and the Trump administration is projecting that it is about to get worse, with the number of new cases surging to about 200,000 a day and deaths rising from about 1,750 now to about 3,000 a day by early June, according to an internal report obtained by The New York Times. (“This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting,” a White House spokesman told the Times.)
Yet some top Wall Street economists say that the coronavirus recession is over, Bloomberg Businessweek’s Peter Coy reports:
“Over the past two days, top economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley issued reports saying the world economy was hitting bottom. If true, that means the recession is over and a recovery has begun. … To the average person, a recession means economic conditions are bad. But to an economist, a recession means economic conditions are worsening. Once they stop getting worse and start getting even a little bit better, a recovery has begun. Break out the bubbly and have a social distancing party. … By Morgan Stanley’s estimation, China bottomed in February, the euro zone probably bottomed in April, and the U.S. probably bottomed in late April, with Latin America still not there.”
The bottom line: Those economists’ calls don’t mean the economic pain is over. Far from it. The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but unemployment didn't peak until October of that year and stayed at 9.4% for all of 2010. So recovery is likely to be much slower than the dramatic shutdown-induced plunge into recession. And, as Coy notes, the economists could simply be wrong. If projections of the pandemic worsening come true and states now attempting or contemplating reopening are forced to revert to lockdowns, the economic optimism will likely prove short-lived.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-04--Trump Pushes Payroll Tax Cut Panned by Economists

As the Senate returns to the Capitol this week , the obstacles to the next round of emergency coronavirus relief legislation seem to be mounting .
Trump insists on a payroll tax cut : President Trump said on Sunday that he won ’ t support any stimulus package unless it includes a payroll tax cut .
“ We ’ re not doing anything unless we get a payroll tax cut , ” Trump said during a Fox News virtual town hall .
Trump has been pushing the idea of temporarily suspending both the employer and employee payroll taxes , meaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Security and the 2.9 % tax to fund Medicare .
But lawmakers — both Republicans and Democrats — largely dismissed the idea when Trump floated it in March .
Critics have routinely pointed out that a payroll tax cut won ’ t help those people most in need of a financial lifeline : those who are no longer on payrolls .
“ The 30 million people who ’ ve lost their jobs wouldn ’ t get a direct benefit , and economists say a payroll tax cut likely isn ’ t enough by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prime driver of the economy -- and spur companies to begin rehiring , ” Bloomberg ’ s Laura Davison reports .
And advocates on the left warn that a payroll tax cut would undermine Social Security and Medicare by cutting their dedicated funding .
A full elimination of payroill taxes from now through the end of the year would cost about $ 650 billion , Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget told Bloomberg .
Infrastructure : Trump also said Sunday that “ we will be doing infrastructure , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s important .
But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that infrastructure won ’ t be part of the next coronavirus bill , calling it “ unrelated ” to the pandemic .
“ We need to keep the White House in the box ” on infrastructure , McConnell told Republican Senators on a conference call last week , adding that “ Democrats and the White House both need to get the message , '' according to Axios .
Trump also wants a pause : The president , top administration officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they ’ re in no rush to push through additional coronavirus relief .
“ I think we want to take a little bit of a pause , ” Trump told reporters last Thursday .
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow echoed those comments on Sunday .
The bottom line : Republicans are still insisting on coronavirus liability protections for businesses , which McConnell last week called a “ red line going forward on this bill.
” Democrats continue to push for more aid to state and local governments .
The two sides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So as we told you last week , any additional coronavirus legislation is likely still weeks away … and there ’ s little to suggest that the timeframe will speed up .

As the Senate returns to the Capitol this week, the obstacles to the next round of emergency coronavirus relief legislation seem to be mounting.
Trump insists on a payroll tax cut: President Trump said on Sunday that he won’t support any stimulus package unless it includes a payroll tax cut. “We’re not doing anything unless we get a payroll tax cut,” Trump said during a Fox News virtual town hall.
Trump has been pushing the idea of temporarily suspending both the employer and employee payroll taxes, meaning the 12.4% tax to fund Social Security and the 2.9% tax to fund Medicare. But lawmakers — both Republicans and Democrats — largely dismissed the idea when Trump floated it in March.
Critics have routinely pointed out that a payroll tax cut won’t help those people most in need of a financial lifeline: those who are no longer on payrolls. “The 30 million people who’ve lost their jobs wouldn’t get a direct benefit, and economists say a payroll tax cut likely isn’t enough by itself to boost consumer spending -- a prime driver of the economy -- and spur companies to begin rehiring,” Bloomberg’s Laura Davison reports. And advocates on the left warn that a payroll tax cut would undermine Social Security and Medicare by cutting their dedicated funding. A full elimination of payroill taxes from now through the end of the year would cost about $650 billion, Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget told Bloomberg.
Infrastructure: Trump also said Sunday that “we will be doing infrastructure,” adding that he and Democrats agree that it’s important. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that infrastructure won’t be part of the next coronavirus bill, calling it “unrelated” to the pandemic. “We need to keep the White House in the box” on infrastructure, McConnell told Republican Senators on a conference call last week, adding that “Democrats and the White House both need to get the message," according to Axios.
Trump also wants a pause: The president, top administration officials and leading GOP lawmakers have all indicated that they’re in no rush to push through additional coronavirus relief. “I think we want to take a little bit of a pause,” Trump told reporters last Thursday. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow echoed those comments on Sunday.
The bottom line: Republicans are still insisting on coronavirus liability protections for businesses, which McConnell last week called a “red line going forward on this bill.” Democrats continue to push for more aid to state and local governments. The two sides remain very far apart on those issues. So as we told you last week, any additional coronavirus legislation is likely still weeks away … and there’s little to suggest that the timeframe will speed up.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-05--Pelosi Looks for Leverage on Next Coronavirus Bill

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is pushing ahead on the next round of coronavirus legislation , aiming to pull together a sweeping aid package that could top $ 800 billion or $ 1 trillion , according to various reports .
House Democratic leaders are hoping to finalize the bill by the end of the week , with Pelosi urging her members to “ think big , ” according to Politico .
The package could be ready for a House vote as soon as next week .
Yet even as Pelosi and House Democrats look to fast forward on the next phase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top Republicans insist it ’ s time to press pause before considering additional coronavirus spending measures .
`` I think I can speak for our conference by saying we 're not ruling that out but we think we ought to take a pause here , do a good job of evaluating what we 've already done , '' McConnell told reporters Tuesday about a fifth coronavirus bill , according to The Hill .
`` The Senate Republican majority and the president of the United States are not irrelevant to the process , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each other and decide to act when and if it 's appropriate to act again.
” The Senate returned to the Capitol this week and is expected to stay in session until its Memorial Day recess , but its immediate focus will be on considering Trump nominees , not legislation to address the pandemic .
The Democratic strategy : On a Monday afternoon call with members , “ Pelosi and her deputies sketched the outline of a trillion-dollar-plus package that would deliver aid to state and local governments — some on the brink @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up safety-net programs for the nation ’ s most vulnerable , ” Politico ’ s Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris report .
Democrats are also focused on providing funding for more robust testing and are expected to propose another round of direct payments to individuals and further extending unemployment insurance .
Pelosi reportedly also talked about a “ paycheck guarantee ” for those who have lost their jobs .
But beyond the specifics of any legislative proposals , the rush to produce a bill is about gaining some leverage in future negotiations with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ privately admit the expansive legislation is more of a policy wishlist than anything — much like a draft proposal Pelosi released in March — but say they hope to move before the Senate crafts legislation , laying down the starting point for bipartisan negotiations , ” Caygle and Ferris write .
The GOP strategy : Republicans are also jockeying for leverage .
“ By reconvening this week , Senate Republicans are trying to set the terms of debate , frustrated that Pelosi was able to fill up earlier aid bills with Democratic priorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Press writes .
“ They ’ re reluctant to unleash federal funds beyond the nearly $ 3 trillion Congress already approved in virus relief and hope Trump ’ s push to re-open will reduce the need for more aid.
” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday declined to back Trump ’ s call for a payroll tax cut , though he did signal an interest in ramping up testing and reiterated that any new package must protect businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits , an idea Democrats have dismissed .
“ I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , except to say that if there is another bill that passes in the Senate , it will include the liability protections , ” McConnell told reporters .
He said Senate Republicans are “ working on a narrowly crafted liability protection ” that “ will not protect somebody from gross negligence.
” Signs of hope : Some GOP lawmakers have expressed openness to providing additional aid for state and local governments in exchange for business liability protections , Bloomberg ’ s Erik Wasson and Laura Litvan report , adding that Pelosi “ has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McConnell that state aid should be focused on the effects and costs of the pandemic .
The bottom line : It hasn ’ t changed .
The next coronavirus package is likely to take weeks .

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is pushing ahead on the next round of coronavirus legislation, aiming to pull together a sweeping aid package that could top $800 billion or $1 trillion, according to various reports.
House Democratic leaders are hoping to finalize the bill by the end of the week, with Pelosi urging her members to “think big,” according to Politico. The package could be ready for a House vote as soon as next week.
Yet even as Pelosi and House Democrats look to fast forward on the next phase of coronavirus relief, President Trump and top Republicans insist it’s time to press pause before considering additional coronavirus spending measures.
"I think I can speak for our conference by saying we're not ruling that out but we think we ought to take a pause here, do a good job of evaluating what we've already done," McConnell told reporters Tuesday about a fifth coronavirus bill, according to The Hill. "The Senate Republican majority and the president of the United States are not irrelevant to the process, so we're going to keep talking to each other and decide to act when and if it's appropriate to act again.”
The Senate returned to the Capitol this week and is expected to stay in session until its Memorial Day recess, but its immediate focus will be on considering Trump nominees, not legislation to address the pandemic.
The Democratic strategy: On a Monday afternoon call with members, “Pelosi and her deputies sketched the outline of a trillion-dollar-plus package that would deliver aid to state and local governments — some on the brink of public service cuts — while shoring up safety-net programs for the nation’s most vulnerable,” Politico’s Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris report. Democrats are also focused on providing funding for more robust testing and are expected to propose another round of direct payments to individuals and further extending unemployment insurance. Pelosi reportedly also talked about a “paycheck guarantee” for those who have lost their jobs.
But beyond the specifics of any legislative proposals, the rush to produce a bill is about gaining some leverage in future negotiations with Trump and Senate Republicans. “Democrats privately admit the expansive legislation is more of a policy wishlist than anything — much like a draft proposal Pelosi released in March — but say they hope to move before the Senate crafts legislation, laying down the starting point for bipartisan negotiations,” Caygle and Ferris write.
The GOP strategy: Republicans are also jockeying for leverage. “By reconvening this week, Senate Republicans are trying to set the terms of debate, frustrated that Pelosi was able to fill up earlier aid bills with Democratic priorities,” Lisa Mascaro of the Associated Press writes. “They’re reluctant to unleash federal funds beyond the nearly $3 trillion Congress already approved in virus relief and hope Trump’s push to re-open will reduce the need for more aid.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday declined to back Trump’s call for a payroll tax cut, though he did signal an interest in ramping up testing and reiterated that any new package must protect businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits, an idea Democrats have dismissed.
“I’m not ruling in or ruling out anything, except to say that if there is another bill that passes in the Senate, it will include the liability protections,” McConnell told reporters. He said Senate Republicans are “working on a narrowly crafted liability protection” that “will not protect somebody from gross negligence.”
Signs of hope: Some GOP lawmakers have expressed openness to providing additional aid for state and local governments in exchange for business liability protections, Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson and Laura Litvan report, adding that Pelosi “has indicated at least partial agreement” with McConnell that state aid should be focused on the effects and costs of the pandemic.
The bottom line: It hasn’t changed. The next coronavirus package is likely to take weeks.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-04--Millions Would Avoid Care for Covid-19 Due to Costs

A recent Gallup poll finds that 14 % of Americans would avoid seeking care for themselves or a family member if they had coronavirus-like symptoms ( fever and dry cough ) , due to worries about cost .
When the symptoms were described specifically as coronavirus infection , 9 % of respondents still said they would avoid treatment due to costs .
“ Recent research has shown that millions of Americans know someone who has died in the last 12 months due to their inability to pay for treatment and that $ 88 billion in borrowing occurred over the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ As such , results that show 14 % unwilling to seek treatment for COVID-19 symptoms and another 9 % unwilling to seek treatment -- even when coronavirus is suspected -- should not be shocking , even amid the outbreak.
” Gallup noted that such fears are not unfounded .
Although testing is now free for most Americans thanks to the Families First Coronavirus Response Act , a trip to the hospital could still run thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs : “ For example , if the doctor consulted determines that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or is out-of-network , or if the trip requires treatment for other conditions not related to COVID-19 , the health law does not cover the costs of the visit .
”

A recent Gallup poll finds that 14% of Americans would avoid seeking care for themselves or a family member if they had coronavirus-like symptoms (fever and dry cough), due to worries about cost. When the symptoms were described specifically as coronavirus infection, 9% of respondents still said they would avoid treatment due to costs.
“Recent research has shown that millions of Americans know someone who has died in the last 12 months due to their inability to pay for treatment and that $88 billion in borrowing occurred over the last year for healthcare,” Gallup said. “As such, results that show 14% unwilling to seek treatment for COVID-19 symptoms and another 9% unwilling to seek treatment -- even when coronavirus is suspected -- should not be shocking, even amid the outbreak.”
Gallup noted that such fears are not unfounded. Although testing is now free for most Americans thanks to the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, a trip to the hospital could still run thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs: “For example, if the doctor consulted determines that the visit does not justify a test, or is out-of-network, or if the trip requires treatment for other conditions not related to COVID-19, the health law does not cover the costs of the visit.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-08--Poll of the Day: 64% Say Reopening Now Not Worth It

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say reopening the country now is not worth it because it will mean more lives are @ @ @ @ @ latest ABC News/Ipsos poll .
But the poll also finds stark partisan , racial and @ @ @ @ @ reopening , including a nearly 60 percentage point gap between Democrats and Republicans .
While @ @ @ @ @ ) of Democrats say opening the country now isn ’ t worth it , only @ @ @ @ @ .
Among independents , 63 % oppose opening up the country .
The poll , @ @ @ @ @ among a random national sample of 532 adults , has a margin of error of @ @ @

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say reopening the country now is not worth it because it will mean more lives are lost, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. But the poll also finds stark partisan, racial and gender differences in views of reopening, including a nearly 60 percentage point gap between Democrats and Republicans. While nearly all (92%) of Democrats say opening the country now isn’t worth it, only 35% of Republicans agree. Among independents, 63% oppose opening up the country.
The poll, conducted May 6 and 7 among a random national sample of 532 adults, has a margin of error of 4.9 points.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-07--Coronavirus-Related Jobless Claims Top 33 Million

Nearly 3.2 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week , the Labor Department announced Thursday , bringing the seven-week @ @ @ @ @ hit to more than 33 million .
The report shows that job losses continue to @ @ @ @ @ are staggering by any measure .
“ That ’ s one in five jobs likely @ @ @ @ @ ” Nick Bunker of Indeed Hiring Lab told MarketWatch .
“ The outlook for the @ @ @ @ @ Not only does the pace of layoffs remain at unprecedented levels , but hiring intentions @ @ @ @ @ jobs report , due Friday morning , is expected to show job losses of about @ @ @ @ @ rate in the neighborhood of 16 % .
“ Both numbers would be highs on @ @ @ @ @ 1930s and 40s , ” The Wall Street Journal said Thursday .
“ The previous @ @ @ @ @ % in 1982 .
The largest monthly jobs loss , 1.96 million , occurred at @ @ @ @ @ II .
”

Nearly 3.2 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department announced Thursday, bringing the seven-week total since the coronavirus crisis hit to more than 33 million.
The report shows that job losses continue to slow, but the numbers are staggering by any measure. “That’s one in five jobs likely gone in seven weeks,” Nick Bunker of Indeed Hiring Lab told MarketWatch. “The outlook for the labor market remains frightening. Not only does the pace of layoffs remain at unprecedented levels, but hiring intentions remain depressed.”
The April jobs report, due Friday morning, is expected to show job losses of about 21 million and an unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 16%. “Both numbers would be highs on records back to the late 1930s and 40s,” The Wall Street Journal said Thursday. “The previous peak unemployment rate was 10.8% in 1982. The largest monthly jobs loss, 1.96 million, occurred at the end of World War II.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-06--State Budget Cuts Will Deepen Recession: Report

As tax receipts plunge , state and local governments will likely cut back on spending if they don ’ t receive additional federal aid , making the current recession worse than it would be otherwise , according to a report out Wednesday from Capital Economics .
The analysts estimate that state and local tax revenues will drop by more than 20 % in the second quarter , and balanced budget rules that exist in most states will force a reduction in spending to bring budgets in line with receipts .
Along with income taxes , sales taxes – which account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – have been particularly hard hit by widespread shutdowns , and the sharp reduction in travel is reducing fuel tax receipts .
For the 2020 fiscal year as a whole , which ends on June 30 in most states , tax revenues will be down by about 3.5 % , the analysts say , followed by a 2 % drop in the 2021 fiscal year .
In stark contrast to earlier expectations that revenues would grow this year and next , Capital Economics says the total shortfall in state revenues could now come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad precedent : A big drop in tax revenues during the last recession forced state and local governments to make cutbacks that hurt the economy for years .
“ In real terms , state & local government spending contracted [ after 2009 ] for the next four years , subtracting an average of 0.4 % points from annual GDP growth in 2010-2012 , ” the report says .
“ In 2010 , the drag from falling state & local spending more than offset the boost from higher Federal government spending .
Those cutbacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ labor market , with state & local government employment falling by a cumulative 660,000 between 2009 and 2013.
” A quick recovery will limit the damage : Many economists are predicting a steep but short-lived slowdown , followed by a rapid return to something like normal economic levels toward the end of the year .
Capital Economics estimates that state tax revenues will return to previous levels in about 12 months , much faster than the three-and-a-half years it took after the last recession .
In addition , states have some money in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal government is already providing support worth more than $ 150 billion through the CARES Act and extra Medicaid funding .
But the stakes are high : State and local government spending account for 11 % of GDP and 13 % of employment , Capital Economics says , and lower spending could have a powerfully negative effect , as we saw a decade ago .
States have already begun to announce layoffs and cutbacks , and there ’ s always a chance that the prevailing economic outlook could prove too optimistic .
Ultimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid , the analysts say .
Without it , “ states could quickly find themselves in an even larger fiscal hole , in turn resulting in a more severe drag on economic growth .
”

As tax receipts plunge, state and local governments will likely cut back on spending if they don’t receive additional federal aid, making the current recession worse than it would be otherwise, according to a report out Wednesday from Capital Economics.
The analysts estimate that state and local tax revenues will drop by more than 20% in the second quarter, and balanced budget rules that exist in most states will force a reduction in spending to bring budgets in line with receipts. Along with income taxes, sales taxes – which account for about a quarter of state revenues – have been particularly hard hit by widespread shutdowns, and the sharp reduction in travel is reducing fuel tax receipts.
For the 2020 fiscal year as a whole, which ends on June 30 in most states, tax revenues will be down by about 3.5%, the analysts say, followed by a 2% drop in the 2021 fiscal year. In stark contrast to earlier expectations that revenues would grow this year and next, Capital Economics says the total shortfall in state revenues could now come to roughly $350 billion.
A bad precedent: A big drop in tax revenues during the last recession forced state and local governments to make cutbacks that hurt the economy for years. “In real terms, state & local government spending contracted [after 2009] for the next four years, subtracting an average of 0.4% points from annual GDP growth in 2010-2012,” the report says. “In 2010, the drag from falling state & local spending more than offset the boost from higher Federal government spending. Those cutbacks exerted an even longer-lasting drag on the labor market, with state & local government employment falling by a cumulative 660,000 between 2009 and 2013.”
A quick recovery will limit the damage: Many economists are predicting a steep but short-lived slowdown, followed by a rapid return to something like normal economic levels toward the end of the year. Capital Economics estimates that state tax revenues will return to previous levels in about 12 months, much faster than the three-and-a-half years it took after the last recession. In addition, states have some money in their rainy day funds, and the federal government is already providing support worth more than $150 billion through the CARES Act and extra Medicaid funding.
But the stakes are high: State and local government spending account for 11% of GDP and 13% of employment, Capital Economics says, and lower spending could have a powerfully negative effect, as we saw a decade ago. States have already begun to announce layoffs and cutbacks, and there’s always a chance that the prevailing economic outlook could prove too optimistic. Ultimately, states will likely need more federal aid, the analysts say. Without it, “states could quickly find themselves in an even larger fiscal hole, in turn resulting in a more severe drag on economic growth.”


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-06--As Trump Pushes Tax Cuts for Coronavirus Stimulus, Lawmakers Push Back

President Trump ’ s renewed push for a payroll tax cut as part of the next round of coronavirus stimulus is being met with bipartisan resistance on Capitol Hill , with even some Republican leaders questioning how effective the policy would be .
As lawmakers debate the shape of the legislation , Trump ’ s push for a payroll tax cut likely presages a broader fight over the most appropriate next steps to mitigate the damage from the coronavirus recession and encourage a speedier recovery .
Setting up a clash : As lawmakers debate the next package to address the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ line in the sand : `` We are not doing anything unless we get a payroll tax cut , '' he said .
Congress in March deferred employers ' portion of the payroll tax , but Trump reportedly is “ passionate ” about a payroll tax cut , which advocates argue will give workers ability to spend and businesses more incentive to hire .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi quickly downplayed the payroll tax cut idea .
“ Nobody ’ s putting anything on the table and saying , ‘ Unless we have this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ He shouldn ’ t either , ” she told CNN on Monday .
But while some Republicans have come out in favor of a payroll tax cut , or said they ’ re at least open to the idea , some key Senate Republicans have voiced significant reservations .
`` I 'm not a particular fan of that , ” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune ( R-S.D . )
, the Senate ’ s No .
2 Republican , adding that a payroll tax cut only helps workers still on payrolls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to being persuaded that it is something that could be effective , but I think some of the things that we 're currently doing are having a bigger impact , '' he said , according to The Hill .
Asked what he thought of a payroll tax cut , Sen. Chuck Grassley , the Republican chair of the Senate Finance Committee , said : `` Right now , not much , '' Politico reports .
Sens .
John Barrasso of Wyoming , Roy Blunt of Missouri and Susan Collins of Maine were among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a payroll tax cut this week .
And , of course , Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made it clear this week that shielding businesses from coronavirus lawsuits is his top priority .
“ I think I can safely say for our team here , the Republican Senate majority , if there ’ s any red line it ’ s on litigation , ” McConnell said when asked about a payroll tax cut .
Eyeing other tax cuts , too : The president and administration officials have also discussed and publicly floated some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tankersley of The New York Times reports : “ Mr .
Trump ’ s advisers are considering several measures that so-called supply-side conservatives have long proposed as a means to accelerate economic growth .
In many cases , those measures would expand or make permanent provisions of the sweeping tax overhaul Mr. Trump signed into law in 2017 .
They include making permanent a provision that allows businesses to immediately deduct the full cost of their investments in equipment and other relatively short-lived assets , which is currently set to begin phasing out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the proposals would reverse provisions tucked into the 2017 overhaul to help pay for the overall package , such as limiting deductions on research and development investments in 2022.
” Trump on Tuesday tweeted about a cut in the capital gains tax and allowing business spending on meals and entertainment to be deducted : “ Well run States should not be bailing out poorly run States , using CoronaVirus as the excuse !
The elimination of Sanctuary Cities , Payroll Taxes , and perhaps Capital Gains Taxes , must be put on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business deductions for restaurants & ent.
” Those proposals come as Republicans increasingly question the need for additional spending measures to counteract the coronavirus recession .
“ ‘ No more spending ’ has really become the rallying cry of the right , ” Stephen Moore , an informal adviser to the president , told the Times , adding that the spending done so far didn ’ t work .
“ [ N ] ow we need to try something else , ” he said .
“ There is going to be civil war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cuts the answer ?
Democrats aren ’ t likely to support the tax proposals being developed by the administration .
“ It ’ s extraordinarily naïve to think that tax cuts are going to bring this economy back faster , ” Democratic Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia told the Times .
“ I have not talked to a single economist yet who says tax cuts are a viable solution here.
” Economic analysts on the left have similarly slammed Trump ’ s list of policy proposals .
“ If you are one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job last month , you should know that not a single one of these proposals would help you at all .
Not one , ” Michael Linden , executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute , wrote in response to Trump ’ s tweet .
Beyer and two Democratic senators , Michael Bennet of Colorado and Jack Reed of Rhode Island , released a plan Tuesday that calls for extending enhanced unemployment benefits and tying them to economic and labor market conditions .
“ Passing emergency relief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the enormous benefit of ensuring assistance continues to flow to workers even if Congress itself is unable or unwilling to act , ” Beyer said in a statement .

President Trump’s renewed push for a payroll tax cut as part of the next round of coronavirus stimulus is being met with bipartisan resistance on Capitol Hill, with even some Republican leaders questioning how effective the policy would be. As lawmakers debate the shape of the legislation, Trump’s push for a payroll tax cut likely presages a broader fight over the most appropriate next steps to mitigate the damage from the coronavirus recession and encourage a speedier recovery.
Setting up a clash: As lawmakers debate the next package to address the pandemic, Trump on Sunday drew a line in the sand: "We are not doing anything unless we get a payroll tax cut," he said. Congress in March deferred employers' portion of the payroll tax, but Trump reportedly is “passionate” about a payroll tax cut, which advocates argue will give workers ability to spend and businesses more incentive to hire.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi quickly downplayed the payroll tax cut idea. “Nobody’s putting anything on the table and saying, ‘Unless we have this, we’re not doing that.’ He shouldn’t either,” she told CNN on Monday.
But while some Republicans have come out in favor of a payroll tax cut, or said they’re at least open to the idea, some key Senate Republicans have voiced significant reservations. "I'm not a particular fan of that,” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), the Senate’s No. 2 Republican, adding that a payroll tax cut only helps workers still on payrolls. “I guess I'm open to being persuaded that it is something that could be effective, but I think some of the things that we're currently doing are having a bigger impact," he said, according to The Hill.
Asked what he thought of a payroll tax cut, Sen. Chuck Grassley, the Republican chair of the Senate Finance Committee, said: "Right now, not much," Politico reports. Sens. John Barrasso of Wyoming, Roy Blunt of Missouri and Susan Collins of Maine were among the other Republicans who expressed skepticism about a payroll tax cut this week.
And, of course, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made it clear this week that shielding businesses from coronavirus lawsuits is his top priority. “I think I can safely say for our team here, the Republican Senate majority, if there’s any red line it’s on litigation,” McConnell said when asked about a payroll tax cut.
Eyeing other tax cuts, too: The president and administration officials have also discussed and publicly floated some other tax cut ideas. As Jim Tankersley of The New York Times reports:
“Mr. Trump’s advisers are considering several measures that so-called supply-side conservatives have long proposed as a means to accelerate economic growth. In many cases, those measures would expand or make permanent provisions of the sweeping tax overhaul Mr. Trump signed into law in 2017. They include making permanent a provision that allows businesses to immediately deduct the full cost of their investments in equipment and other relatively short-lived assets, which is currently set to begin phasing out in 2022.
“In some cases, the proposals would reverse provisions tucked into the 2017 overhaul to help pay for the overall package, such as limiting deductions on research and development investments in 2022.”
Trump on Tuesday tweeted about a cut in the capital gains tax and allowing business spending on meals and entertainment to be deducted:
“Well run States should not be bailing out poorly run States, using CoronaVirus as the excuse! The elimination of Sanctuary Cities, Payroll Taxes, and perhaps Capital Gains Taxes, must be put on the table. Also lawsuit indemnification & business deductions for restaurants & ent.”
Those proposals come as Republicans increasingly question the need for additional spending measures to counteract the coronavirus recession. “‘No more spending’ has really become the rallying cry of the right,” Stephen Moore, an informal adviser to the president, told the Times, adding that the spending done so far didn’t work. “[N]ow we need to try something else,” he said. “There is going to be civil war in Congress over this.”
Are tax cuts the answer? Democrats aren’t likely to support the tax proposals being developed by the administration. “It’s extraordinarily naïve to think that tax cuts are going to bring this economy back faster,” Democratic Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia told the Times. “I have not talked to a single economist yet who says tax cuts are a viable solution here.”
Economic analysts on the left have similarly slammed Trump’s list of policy proposals. “If you are one of the 30 million people who lost their job last month, you should know that not a single one of these proposals would help you at all. Not one,” Michael Linden, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, wrote in response to Trump’s tweet.
Beyer and two Democratic senators, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Jack Reed of Rhode Island, released a plan Tuesday that calls for extending enhanced unemployment benefits and tying them to economic and labor market conditions. “Passing emergency relief legislation that incorporates automatic triggers would have the enormous benefit of ensuring assistance continues to flow to workers even if Congress itself is unable or unwilling to act,” Beyer said in a statement.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-05--Trump and Cuomo Battle Over State ‘Bailouts’

President Trump said Monday that Republicans don ’ t want to provide “ bailouts ” to states that are struggling financially amid the coronavirus epidemic .
“ I think Congress is inclined to do a lot of things but I don ’ t think they ’ re inclined to do bailouts .
A bailout is different than , you know , reimbursing for the plague , ” Trump told the New York Post on Monday .
Trump framed the issue in starkly partisan terms , misleadingly portraying Republican-led states as fiscally healthy , unlike those led by Democrats .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans because all the states that need help — they ’ re run by Democrats in every case .
Florida is doing phenomenal , Texas is doing phenomenal , the Midwest is , you know , fantastic — very little debt.
” Illinois , New York and California , by contrast , have “ tremendous debt , ” Trump said .
“ I don ’ t think the Republicans want to be in a position where they bail out states that are , that have been mismanaged over a long period of time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Gov .
Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday warned Trump and Republican lawmakers about the economic risks of denying states the funds they need to keep operating .
“ What we 're asking , every state is asking , because of the coronavirus , we need financial help in restarting the economy , and that 's what we 're asking for from the federal government , '' Cuomo said at his daily briefing .
“ If you starve the states , how do you expect the states to be able to fund this entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ charge of.
” Whatever the party affiliation of the governors may be , all states need help right now due to widespread shutdowns and plunging tax revenues , Cuomo said .
“ [ T ] his is not a blue state issue .
Every state has coronavirus cases .
And it 's not just Democratic states that have an economic shortfall – Republican states have an economic shortfall.
” The New York governor also rejected the use of the term “ bailout ” by Republican leaders , calling it “ such a loaded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ word.
” Cuomo added that he thinks the current partisan debate over aid to the states is “ counterproductive ” and “ will lead to defeat for all of us , ” and laid out the course of action he would like to see Washington take : “ You need a bipartisan bill to pass , you go down this path of partisanship and politics , you will never pass a bill , ” he said .
“ And if you never pass legislation you 'll never get this economy back on its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fiscal picture : As numerous reports have noted , both blue and red states are feeling the economic effects of the coronavirus .
Unemployment is soaring in all states , devastating income and sales tax collections , Michael Leachman , senior director of state fiscal research at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities , wrote in a report published Monday .
“ Both ‘ red ’ and ‘ blue ’ states will need more fiscal relief to avoid having to make deep budget cuts to meet their balanced-budget requirements , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the recession , ” the report said .
Officials in 21 states have already revised revenue estimates lower for 2021 , sometimes substantially so .
Of those 21 states , 10 voted for Trump in 2016 , while 11 voted for Hillary Clinton , Newsweek reports .

President Trump said Monday that Republicans don’t want to provide “bailouts” to states that are struggling financially amid the coronavirus epidemic. “I think Congress is inclined to do a lot of things but I don’t think they’re inclined to do bailouts. A bailout is different than, you know, reimbursing for the plague,” Trump told the New York Post on Monday.
Trump framed the issue in starkly partisan terms, misleadingly portraying Republican-led states as fiscally healthy, unlike those led by Democrats.
“It’s not fair to the Republicans because all the states that need help — they’re run by Democrats in every case. Florida is doing phenomenal, Texas is doing phenomenal, the Midwest is, you know, fantastic — very little debt.” Illinois, New York and California, by contrast, have “tremendous debt,” Trump said.
“I don’t think the Republicans want to be in a position where they bail out states that are, that have been mismanaged over a long period of time,” he added.
Cuomo responds: Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday warned Trump and Republican lawmakers about the economic risks of denying states the funds they need to keep operating.
“What we're asking, every state is asking, because of the coronavirus, we need financial help in restarting the economy, and that's what we're asking for from the federal government," Cuomo said at his daily briefing. “If you starve the states, how do you expect the states to be able to fund this entire reopening plan which the governors are in charge of.”
Whatever the party affiliation of the governors may be, all states need help right now due to widespread shutdowns and plunging tax revenues, Cuomo said. “[T]his is not a blue state issue. Every state has coronavirus cases. And it's not just Democratic states that have an economic shortfall – Republican states have an economic shortfall.”
The New York governor also rejected the use of the term “bailout” by Republican leaders, calling it “such a loaded word, such a rhetorical, hyperbolic word.”
Cuomo added that he thinks the current partisan debate over aid to the states is “counterproductive” and “will lead to defeat for all of us,” and laid out the course of action he would like to see Washington take: “You need a bipartisan bill to pass, you go down this path of partisanship and politics, you will never pass a bill,” he said. “And if you never pass legislation you'll never get this economy back on its feet.”
The truth about states’ fiscal picture: As numerous reports have noted, both blue and red states are feeling the economic effects of the coronavirus. Unemployment is soaring in all states, devastating income and sales tax collections, Michael Leachman, senior director of state fiscal research at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, wrote in a report published Monday. “Both ‘red’ and ‘blue’ states will need more fiscal relief to avoid having to make deep budget cuts to meet their balanced-budget requirements, which would hurt families and communities while worsening the recession,” the report said.
Officials in 21 states have already revised revenue estimates lower for 2021, sometimes substantially so. Of those 21 states, 10 voted for Trump in 2016, while 11 voted for Hillary Clinton, Newsweek reports.


thefiscaltimes--2020-05-08--House Dems Eyeing a Plan to Replace Troubled PPP: Report

House Democrats are coalescing around a plan to replace the problem-plagued Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses with an expanded program offering grants covering 100 % of workers ’ salaries and benefits , The Washington Posts ’ Tory Newmyer reports : “ The proposal borrows from similar programs that Western European and Asian countries have already implemented to keep employees on the payrolls of damaged businesses .
It aims to replace the relief the troubled Paycheck Protection Program has provided small businesses and expand it to businesses of all sizes , while cutting out banks as middlemen .
“ And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it into an economic rescue package House Democratic leaders are racing to assemble and roll out in the coming days , Democratic lawmakers and top aides say .
‘ It has picked up an enormous amount of momentum very quickly , ’ Rep. Pramila Jayapal ( D-Wash , ) , who is spearing the effort , tells me.
” The plan would be retroactive to March 1 , Newmyer adds , allowing businesses to rehire laid-off workers .
An analysis by Moody ’ s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi projects the program would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including savings from having fewer jobless people rely on unemployment benefits and Medicaid .

House Democrats are coalescing around a plan to replace the problem-plagued Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses with an expanded program offering grants covering 100% of workers’ salaries and benefits, The Washington Posts’ Tory Newmyer reports:
“The proposal borrows from similar programs that Western European and Asian countries have already implemented to keep employees on the payrolls of damaged businesses. It aims to replace the relief the troubled Paycheck Protection Program has provided small businesses and expand it to businesses of all sizes, while cutting out banks as middlemen.
“And it stands a strong chance of making it into an economic rescue package House Democratic leaders are racing to assemble and roll out in the coming days, Democratic lawmakers and top aides say. ‘It has picked up an enormous amount of momentum very quickly,’ Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash,), who is spearing the effort, tells me.”
The plan would be retroactive to March 1, Newmyer adds, allowing businesses to rehire laid-off workers. An analysis by Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi projects the program would cost a net $654 billion, including savings from having fewer jobless people rely on unemployment benefits and Medicaid.